573
FXPQ50 PGUM 051914
AFDGUM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
514 AM CHST SAT JUN 6 2026
MARIANAS UPDATE
THE MARIANAS FORECAST DID NOT NEED ANY CHANGES EARLY THIS MORNING. A
DRY SEASON TRADE-WIND REGIME REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS, SEAS OF 3 TO 4 FEET AND A
MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG NORTH AND EAST FACING REEFS WILL
CONTINUE. THE FIRE DANGER IS STILL LOW NOW, BUT COULD BECOME MODERATE
NEXT WEEK.
EASTERN MICRONESIA UPDATE
NO CHANGES WERE NEEDED AT POHNPEI. NO CHANGES WERE NEEDED AT KOSRAE
OR MAJURO EITHER, OTHER THAN TO CORRECT PARTLY SUNNY WORDING DURING
NIGHTTIME PERIODS. SEAS AND WINDS ARE BENIGN FOR MARINERS, AND WILL
STAY THAT WAY THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
WESTERN MICRONESIA UPDATE
NO CHANGES WERE NEEDED AT KOROR OR CHUUK. AT YAP, THE CORE OF THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY PASSED TO THE SOUTH, SO BASED ON SATELLITE TRENDS,
CHANGED TODAY TO ISOLATED. SIMILAR TO EASTERN MICRONESIA, SEAS AND
WINDS ARE BENIGN FOR MARINERS, AND WILL STAY THAT WAY THROUGH AT
LEAST THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 542 PM CHST FRI JUN 5 2026/
MARIANAS SYNOPSIS...
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND LOW-END
ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE MARIANAS. BUOY AND ALTIMETRY DATA SHOW A
NORTHEASTERLY SWELL PRODUCING COMBINED SEAS OF 3 TO 4 FEET. THERE IS
A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG NORTH- AND EAST-FACING REEFS.
DISCUSSION...
A DRY TRADE-WIND REGIME CONTINUES AS A BROAD AREA OF PWAT VALUES FROM
1.30 TO 1.50 INCHES PASSES THROUGH THE REGION AS INDICATED BY CIMSS
MIMIC. SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A WEAK SIGNATURE OF ISLAND-EFFECT
ALONG LEEWARD PORTIONS OF THE ISLANDS, MAINLY PRODUCING LINES OF
CLOUDS ADVECTING OFFSHORE TO THE WEST. THERE IS AN INCREASE OF
CUMULUS CLOUD DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE AXIS OF ALL ISLANDS, BUT SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ISOLATED IN COVERAGE THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE
DRIER AIRMASS PERSISTS. POPS OF 20 PERCENT ARE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT
THE FORECAST PERIOD AS A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE PROTRUDES FROM THE
NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE MARIANAS. WINDS WILL HOVER BETWEEN 10 TO 15
MPH DURING THE DAY, DROPPING TO AROUND 10 MPH IN THE EVENING AS
DAYTIME HEATING SUBSIDES. THERE IS A CHANCE OF ISLAND-EFFECT SHOWERS
TOMORROW AS THE WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS CONSISTENT, BUT SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ISOLATED IN COVERAGE.
MARINE...
DISTANT WEATHER PATTERNS ARE PRODUCING A NORTHEASTERLY SWELL FOR THE
REGION. BUOY AND ALTIMETRY DATA DEPICT COMBINED SEAS OF 3 TO 4 FEET
ACROSS ALL COASTAL WATERS. NORTH- AND EAST-FACING REEFS CAN EXPECT
SURF FROM 3 TO 5 FEET FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, SO THERE IS A
MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS. BENIGN SEA CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FOR
THE MARIANAS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
EASTERN MICRONESIA...
POHNPEI LOOKS TO HAVE THE "BEST" RAINFALL POTENTIAL OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS, AS THEY'LL BE CLOSEST TO THE TAIL END OF THE NET (NEAR-
EQUATORIAL TROUGH), WITH A 40 PERCENT POTENTIAL OF RAINFALL DURING
THE DAY IN THIS LIGHT WIND REGIME (DAYTIME HEATING/LAND BREEZE
CONVERGENCE) AND 30 PERCENT AT NIGHT. FOR KOSRAE AND MAJURO, IT'S
MUCH THE SAME PICTURE (MAINLY KOSRAE AS MAJURO IS PRETTY SMALL/FLAT,
MAKING DIFFERENTIAL HEATING LESS OF A FACTOR), SO OPTED FOR LOW-END
SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE DAY AND ISOLATED AT NIGHT.
FOR THE MARINERS, THESE LIGHT WINDS AND LACK OF ANY NORTHERLY SWELL
MAKES FOR GOOD FISHING CONDITIONS, WITH LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND
SEAS OF 3 TO 5 FEET EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
WESTERN MICRONESIA...
THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH (NET) WITH AN EMBEDDED CIRCULATION
REMAINS THE DOMINANT FEATURE OF THE REGION. THE CIRCULATION IS
LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF YAP PROPER. HIGH-END SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE SEEN ALONG THE WESTERN FLANKS. THESE
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD BRINGING SHOWERS TO YAP PROPER
AND PALAU TONIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A SECOND WAVE OF SHOWERS IS
LOCATED OVER THE OUTER ISLANDS OF YAP. THIS WAVE OF SHOWERS IS
ESTIMATED TO ARRIVE OVER PALAU AND YAP NEAR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK. OVERALL, A WET WEEK IS EXPECTED.
ON THE OTHER HAND, THE TRADES ARE CONVERGING NEAR CHUUK WHICH ARE
PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS. THIS CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. THEN A DRIER PATTERN MAY START
TO DEVELOP. OVERALL, A WET FIRST HALF OF THE FORECAST, THEN A DRIER
PATTERN MAY SET UP FOR THE LATTER HALF.
COMBINED SEAS ARE 3 TO 5 FEET THROUGH OUT THE REGIONS. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT TO GENTLE. OVERALL, FAIRLY BENIGN SEAS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GU...NONE.
MP...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
MARIANAS/EAST AND WEST MICRONESIA UPDATE: STANKO
MARIANAS: MESA
EAST MICRONESIA: DOLL
WEST MICRONESIA: BOWSHER
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