485
FXPQ50 PGUM 090823
AFDGUM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
623 PM CHST TUE JUN 9 2026
MARIANAS SYNOPSIS
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER THE REGION, WHILE,
RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. THESE SHOWERS ARE
BUILDING NEAR SAIPAN AND TINIAN, AND SOUTH OF GUAM. ALTIMETRY SHOWS
3 TO 4 FOOT SEAS, WHILE BUOY DATA SHOWS ABOUT 2 TO 3 FEET.
DISCUSSION
A PASSING TROUGH IS PRODUCING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE
MARIANAS. THIS TROUGH HAS SOME UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT AS THE REMAINS OF
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS TRAILING BEHIND. THERE IS A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY
OF HOW MUCH SUPPORT THIS LOW IS GIVING DUE TO THE LOCATION COMPARED
TO THE TROUGH IS. IF THIS TROUGH SLOWS DOWN SHOWERS MAY BECOME MORE
CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE, HOWEVER IF THE TROUGH MAINTAINS OR INCREASES IN
FORWARD MOTION CONNECTIVITY MAY BECOME STIFLED.
LOOKING FORWARDS, A DRY PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK.
MARINE
BENIGN SEAS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS COMBINED SEAS ARE
EXPECTED BE 3 TO 4 FEET FALLING TO 2 TO 3 FEET OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT TO GENTLE.
EASTERN MICRONESIA
THE CALM WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS ALL OF THE REGION WITH LIGHT WINDS
AND JUST ISOLATED SHOWERS. THE MODELS DO HINT AT THE POSSIBILITY OF A
WETTER PATTERN DEVELOPING TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
(LATE IN THE WEEKEND), BUT WE STILL HAVE PLENTY OF TIME TO WATCH THE
MODEL TRENDS AND SATELLITE ANALYSIS UNTIL THEN. MARINERS CAN EXPECT
LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND SEAS OF 3 TO 5 FEET.
WESTERN MICRONESIA
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION.
ALTIMETRY SHOWS COMBINED SEAS BETWEEN 2 AND 5 FEET.
ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE WITH THIS FORECAST. SHOWER COVERAGE
REMAINS ISOLATED ACROSS THE REGION, BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS PALAU, YAP PROPER, AND WENO OVERNIGHT. THIS DRIER
PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH ISOLATED
TO LOW-END (20 - 30%) SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED. THE ONE EXCEPTION
IS FOR FRIDAY AT PALAU WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS (40%) EXPECTED,
DUE TO AN INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE FROM A SHARP TROUGH
CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHERN CHUUK STATE.
NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE MARINE FORECAST. BENIGN SEAS OF 2 TO 5
FEET ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEAS MAY FALL TO A LIGHT SWELL
FOR PALAU LATE THIS WEEK.
GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GU...NONE.
MP...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
MARIANAS: BOWSHER
EAST MICRONESIA: DOLL
WEST MICRONESIA: SCHANK/WILLIAMS
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