800
FXPQ50 PGUM 291957
AFDGUM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
557 AM CHST TUE JUN 30 2026
MARIANAS UPDATE
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL DOMINATE THE MARIANAS
WATERS TODAY. THERE IS CURRENTLY AN AREA OF INCREASED SHOWERS NEAR
ROTA WHICH IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH ALONG WITH THE DIURNAL MAXIMUM.
COMBINED SEAS OF 3 TO 4 FEET WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY, WHILE
EAST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS GRADUALLY TURN NORTHEAST THEN NORTH. SEAS
AND WINDS WILL LIKELY BUILD SUNDAY AS 95W PULLS NEAR TO THE ISLANDS.
FIRE WEATHER
GUAM INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT RECEIVED ONLY 0.03 INCHES OF RAIN
YESTERDAY, WHICH ALLOWED THE KBDI TO CLIMB TO 248. THIS IS STILL IN
THE LOW FIRE DANGER CATEGORY, AND SHOULD STAY THAT WAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. FIRE DANGER COULD THEN BECOME MODERATE FRIDAY, AND AFTER
THAT ALL WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH RAIN 95W ACTUALLY DROPS.
TROPICAL SYSTEMS
INVEST 95W IS CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS THE CENTRAL MARSHALL ISLANDS AS
AN ELONGATED, DISORGANIZED DISTURBANCE, WITH ITS CENTER LOCATED
AROUND 9N168E, ROUGHLY NORTH OF KWAJALEIN. THE CENTER IS ROUGHLY
HALFWAY BETWEEN TWO CIRCULATION CENTERS THAT HAVE YET TO FULLY
CONSOLIDATE. THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (JTWC) STILL RATES
INVEST 95W AS "MEDIUM" FOR DEVELOPMENT, MEANING IT WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP INTO A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE (A TROPICAL DEPRESSION),
BUT NOT WITHIN 24 HOURS. SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS FLARING
CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE EDGES, TO THE NORTH OF KOSRAE. FOR
NOW, MODELS FAVOR A GRADUAL CONSOLIDATION ABOUT THE WESTERNMOST
CIRCULATION THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH 95W THEN STRENGTHENING AS IT
MEANDERS NORTHWEST ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN RMI INTO THE LATTER HALF
OF THE WEEK. THERE IS STILL HIGH UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE EVENTUAL TRACK
OF INVEST 95W, BUT IT WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR THE POTENTIAL OF
ANY IMPACTS TO THE MARIANAS IN THE COMING DAYS. FOR MORE INFORMATION
ON INVEST 95W, PLEASE REFER TO THE SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER
ADVISORY FROM THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (JTWC) UNDER WMO
HEADER ABPW10 PGTW.
EASTERN MICRONESIA UPDATE
INVEST AREA 95W IS NOW NORTHWEST OF KWAJALEIN OR NORTH OF KOSRAE. IT
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY CONSOLIDATE AND MOVE IN THE GENERAL DIRECTION OF
THE MARIANAS. SHOWERS WILL TEND TO SLOWLY DIMINISH IN EASTERN
MICRONESIA AS IT MOVES AWAY. THIS WAS WELL COVERED, SO NO CHANGES
WERE NEEDED IN THE FORECAST.
WESTERN MICRONESIA UPDATE
THE MONSOON TROUGH IS SAGGING SOUTH OF THE MAIN ISLANDS, AND INVEST
96W MOVED INTO THE PHILIPPINE SEA. YAP'S FAIRLY DRY FORECAST LOOKED
GOOD AND IS UNCHANGED. KOROR'S AND CHUUK'S POPS WERE NUDGED DOWNWARD
A LITTLE AS THE SHOWERS HAVE MOVED AWAY FROM BOTH ISLANDS.
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 631 PM CHST MON JUN 29 2026/
MARIANAS SYNOPSIS...
SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOW SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS ALL THE
MARIANAS WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER COVERAGE FOR ROTA AND LIKELY GUAM EARLY
TONIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW
BUT WILL REMAIN WEAK. BUOY AND MODEL DATA SHOW COMBINED SEAS OF 3 TO
5 FEET.
DISCUSSION...
WEAK PERIODS OF SCATTERED AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, BUT OTHERWISE THE MARIANAS LOOKS
TO STAY FAIRLY DRY ALL WEEK. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED
THROUGH TOMORROW, AND THEN ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
A SIMILAR PATTERN OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND INDEPENDENCE DAY
WITH SHOWER COVERAGE WAVERING BETWEEN ISOLATED AND SCATTERED WITH
THE EXACT TIMING OF SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAINING UNCERTAIN.
PRECIPITATION AND WINDS MAY BEGIN INCREASING BY SUNDAY DUE TO
INCREASED MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (INVEST 95W)
CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR THE MARSHALL ISLANDS.
MARINE...
COMBINED SEAS OF 3 TO 5 FEET AND LIGHT TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ARE
PRESENT TONIGHT FOR THE MARIANAS. THE MAIN SWELL IS THE EAST-
NORTHEAST TRADE WIND SWELL. THERE WILL BE A MODERATE RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS ALONG EAST FACING REEFS LIKELY FOR THE WHOLE WEEK. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT TO GENTLE TOMORROW AND MUCH OF THE WEEK.
SEAS MAY DROP VERY SLIGHTLY TO 3 TO 4 FEET AS TRADE WINDS WEAKEN
GRADUALLY. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW,
POSSIBLY RETURNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. SEAS AND SURF COULD
START BUILDING SATURDAY, JULY 4TH AS A SWELL FROM 95W APPROACHES THE
MARIANAS.
TROPICAL SYSTEMS...
INVEST 95W IS CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS THE CENTRAL MARSHALL ISLANDS AS
AN ELONGATED, DISORGANIZED DISTURBANCE, WITH A CENTERPOINT LOCATED
AROUND 9N168E, ROUGHLY NORTH OF KWAJALEIN. THIS CENTERPOINT IS
ROUGHLY HALFWAY BETWEEN TWO CIRCULATION CENTERS THAT HAVE YET TO
FULLY CONSOLIDATE. THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (JTWC) STILL
RATES INVEST 95W AS "MEDIUM" FOR DEVELOPMENT, MEANING IT WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP INTO A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE (A TROPICAL DEPRESSION),
BUT NOT WITHIN 24 HOURS. SATELLITE IMAGERY LATE THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS
DEEP, FLARING CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FAR
WESTERN EDGE OF INVEST 95W, WHILE CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED ALONG THE
EASTERN CIRCULATION CENTER, TO THE NORTH OF MAJURO. FOR NOW, MODELS
FAVOR A GRADUAL CONSOLIDATION ABOUT THE WESTERNMOST CIRCULATION
THROUGH TONIGHT AND TUESDAY, WITH 95W THEN STRENGTHENING AS IT
MEANDERS NORTH-NORTHWEST ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN RMI INTO THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK, AS A FAIRLY LARGE STORM WITH POTENTIAL TO BECOME A
TYPHOON. THERE IS STILL HIGH UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF
INVEST 95W, BUT IT WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR THE POTENTIAL OF
ANY IMPACTS TO THE MARIANAS IN THE COMING DAYS. FOR MORE INFORMATION
ON INVEST 95W, PLEASE REFER TO BULLETINS FROM THE JOINT TYPHOON
WARNING CENTER (JTWC) UNDER WMO HEADER ABPW10 PGTW.
INVEST 96W, FAR TO THE WEST, HAS EXITED THE REGION WEST OF 130E AS IT
MOVES OVER THE PHILIPPINE SEA. HOWEVER, SOUTHWEST MONSOON FLOW BEHIND
THE DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A WET PATTERN ACROSS THE
REPUBLIC OF PALAU AND PORTIONS OF YAP STATE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
EASTERN MICRONESIA...
MAJURO:
WHAT AN INTERESTING 24 HOURS ITS BEEN FOR MAJURO. AS EXPECTED, A
STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WIND BURST ROLLED THROUGH THE AREA, WITH A
COUPLE WINDS GUSTS AROUND 35 MPH OBSERVED AT ONE OBSERVATION AFTER 3
AM. ADDITIONAL, ONE BOAT BROKE ITS MOORING AND WAS GROUNDED ON A
BEACH, WITH DAMAGE TO INFRASTRUCTURE AND COASTAL WALL FAILURE ALSO
OBSERVED. THIS IS COURTESY OF INVEST 95W WHICH HAS STALLED NORTHWEST
OF KWAJALEIN. THIS DISTURBANCE IS WHAT HELPED USHER IN THOSE WIND
GUSTS AND SOME HEAVY RAINFALL. UNFORTUNATELY, ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAINFALL COULD HAMPER RECOVERY EFFORTS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
OR SO. WITH 95W STATIONARY, THOSE WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
PERSIST AS WELL DURING THIS TIME, BUT AT LEAST THEY'LL BE SOMEWHAT
WEAKER. IN GENERAL, LOOK FOR WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH, WITH A FEW GUSTS
TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE (MAINLY WITH HEAVIER SHOWERS). GIVEN THE FREQUENT
GUST POTENTIAL TO 25 KNOTS (30 MPH), THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS
IN EFFECT THROUGH 3 AM. ALSO, WITH THE CONTINUED WEST-SOUTHWEST
FETCH, THE COASTAL INUNDATION HEADLINE HOLDS AS WELL. AS WE HEAD
TOWARDS THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK, 95W WILL BE MOVING AWAY, WITH
SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
POHNPEI AND KOSRAE:
HERE TOO THE UNUSUAL WIND DIRECTIONS CONTINUE, WITH POHNPEI SEEING
WINDS GRADUALLY BACK FROM NORTHWESTERLIES TO WESTERLY OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS. MEANWHILE, KOSRAE WILL MAINTAIN A MAINLY SOUTHWEST WIND
DIRECTION. AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK, THESE WINDS
WILL BACK FURTHER, EVENTUALLY BECOMING SOUTHERLY, THEN SOUTHEASTERLY,
AS INVEST 95W PASSES BY WELL NORTH OF THE REGION. HOWEVER, A MONSOON-
LIKE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS, WHICH WILL PROBABLY BRING PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY
WINDS. THE BENEFIT OF THIS WILL BE COOLER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES.
THINGS SHOULD START TO "WIND DOWN" BY THE WEEKEND.
WESTERN MICRONESIA...
A WET MONSOON PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS THE REPUBLIC OF PALAU,
ASSOCIATED WITH JTWC'S INVEST 96W, WHICH HAS CROSSED WEST OF 130E AS
IT MOVES OVER THE PHILIPPINE SEA. A BROAD BAND OF DEEP, FLARING
CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED NORTHWARD AND OVER KOROR THIS AFTERNOON,
WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE HEAVIER SHOWERS.
NUMEROUS LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT, THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS
96W PULLS FARTHER AWAY AND THE MONSOON PATTERN BEGINS TO WEAKEN. YAP
WILL SEE LOW-END SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TONIGHT ON THE FAR OUTER
PERIPHERY OF THIS PATTERN, BUT OVERALL CAN EXPECT DRIER WEATHER
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH PREVAILING LIGHT TRADE WINDS. CHUUK
SIMILARLY REMAINS IN A DRY DOLDRUM-LIKE PATTERN, POSITIONED JUST
SOUTH OF AN ELONGATED COL AREA, BETWEEN INVEST 95W OVER EASTERN
MICRONESIA AND A WEAK NET DISTURBANCE IN YAP STATE. LIGHT TO GENTLE
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
SLIGHTLY WETTER CONDITIONS MAY BEGIN TO DEVELOP IN THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEK AS 95W DEVELOPS TO THE EAST, AND STRONGER WEST TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS BUILD INTO THE AREA, BRINGING AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE.
BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS CONTINUE, WITH ALTIMETRY AND YAP BUOY DATA
SUGGESTING COMBINED SEAS BETWEEN 3 AND 4 FEET ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION. PALAU CAN EXPECT MOST OF ITS SWELL ENERGY OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO, ASSOCIATED WITH THE ONGOING
MONSOON PATTERN, BEFORE AN EASTERLY SWELL PREVAILS IN THE LATTER HALF
OF THE WEEK. CHUUK WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN SEAS BY THE END OF THE
WEEK, ASSOCIATED WITH AN INCREASE IN NORTHEAST SWELL FROM DEVELOPING
INVEST 95W.
GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GU...NONE.
MP...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
MARIANAS/EAST AND WEST MICRONESIA/TROPICAL UPDATE: STANKO
MARIANAS: OGLE
EAST MICRONESIA: DOLL
WEST MICRONESIA/TROPICAL: DECOU
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