622
FXPQ50 PGUM 301449 AAA
AFDGUM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
1249 AM CHST WED JUL 1 2026
UPDATED TROPICAL SYSTEMS SECTION TO INCLUDE TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION ALERT FOR INVEST 95W.
MARIANAS SYNOPSIS
SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND WEAK ISLAND
EFFECT SHOWERS DISSIPATING. LOW-END SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
TO RETURN LATE TONIGHT AND DISSIPATE BY MORNING. BUOY AND MODEL DATA
SHOW COMBINED SEAS OF 3 TO 4 FEET.
DISCUSSION
A FAIRLY DRY PERIOD WITH WEAK PERIODS OF SCATTERED AND ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT, WEDNESDAY NIGHT, AND THURSDAY
NIGHT. UNSTABLE AIR AHEAD OF CURRENT INVEST 95W, CURRENTLY LOCATED
OVER THE MARSHALL ISLANDS, WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD STARTING FRIDAY
NIGHT. SHOWER COVERAGE LOOKS TO BECOME MORE SCATTERED ON INDEPENDENCE
DAY AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE ACROSS THE MARIANAS AHEAD
OF 95W. SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS POSSIBLE. FLOODING COULD BE A RISK FOR AREAS
WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD GRADUALLY
SOMETIME SATURDAY AND COULD BECOME DAMAGING BY SUNDAY NIGHT DEPENDING
ON THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF 95W. THIS SITUATION REMAINS UNCERTAIN
AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY. REFER TO THE TROPICAL
SYSTEMS SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS ON INVEST 95W.
MARINE
COMBINED SEAS OF 3 TO 4 FEET AND LIGHT TO GENTLE TRADE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TONIGHT FOR THE MARIANAS. THE MAIN SWELL IS THE EAST-
NORTHEAST TRADE WIND SWELL. THERE WILL BE A MODERATE RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS ALONG EAST FACING REEFS OF THE MARIANAS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE LIGHT TO GENTLE THROUGH THE WEEK BEFORE STARTING TO INCREASE
GRADUALLY SOMETIME SATURDAY AHEAD OF INVEST 95W. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT, LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT, AND THURSDAY. BY
FRIDAY, A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. SHOWER CHANCES LOOK TO START INCREASING SATURDAY AND
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY WITH LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS POSSIBLE. SEAS AND SURF
COULD START BUILDING SATURDAY, JULY 4TH AS SWELL FROM 95W APPROACHES
THE MARIANAS. SEAS AND SURF MAY BECOME HAZARDOUS AS SOON AS SATURDAY
NIGHT. THIS SITUATION WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY.
TROPICAL SYSTEMS
THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (JTWC) HAS UPGRADED INVEST 95W TO A
"HIGH" FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT,
MEANING IT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INTO A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE (A TROPICAL DEPRESSION) WITHIN 24 HOURS. INVEST 95W REMAINS
VERY BROAD, SPANNING MUCH OF THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE MARSHALL
ISLANDS AND KOSRAE STATE, WITH THE CIRCULATION EXTENDING WESTWARD TO
BEYOND POHNPEI AND EASTWARD TO AROUND MAJURO. THE CENTER REMAINS NEAR
UJAE ATOLL AT 8.3N 165.0E. SCATTEROMETRY DATA AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICT THE BROAD CIRCULATION CONTINUING TO CONSOLIDATE NEAR THE
NORTHWEST RMI, WITH DEEP, FLARING CONVECTION FOCUSED NEAR THE CENTER,
ALONG ITS WEST-TO-NORTHWEST FLANK TO THE SOUTH OF UJELANG AND
ENEWETAK ATOLLS, AND ALONG ITS EASTERN FLANK OVER KWAJALEIN AND
EBADON ATOLLS. SCATTEROMETRY FROM THIS EVENING SHOWS EAST-NORTHEAST
WINDS AROUND 20 TO 25 MPH NORTH TO NORTHEAST OF 95W'S CENTER, AND
ROUGHLY 15 TO 20 MPH WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS TO ITS SOUTH.
MODELS CONTINUE TO FAVOR A GRADUAL CONSOLIDATION OVER THE FAR
NORTHWESTERN MARSHALL ISLANDS AS 95W MEANDERS GENERALLY WEST-
NORTHWEST, SLOWLY SHIFTING TO THE NORTH OF KOSRAE TONIGHT AND LATER
NORTH OF POHNPEI AROUND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. INVEST 95W HAS BEEN SLOW TO
CONSOLIDATE AND REMAINS A VERY BROAD DISTURBANCE, BUT CONFIDENCE
WILL INCREASE IN ITS TRACK, DEVELOPMENT, AND TIMING AS IT ORGANIZES
AND DEPARTS THE RMI, WITH POTENTIAL TO BECOME A LARGE TYPHOON OVER
THE OPEN OCEAN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. RECENT MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE
TO FAVOR A PASSAGE SOMEWHERE THROUGH THE MARIANAS LATE THIS WEEKEND
OR VERY EARLY NEXT WEEK. INVEST 95W IS BEING CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO THE MARIANAS AS IT IS
EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A GENERAL TRACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST.
FOR MORE INFORMATION ON INVEST 95W, PLEASE REFER TO THE SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FROM THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER
(JTWC) UNDER WMO HEADER ABPW10 PGTW AND THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION ALERT FROM THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER UNDER WMO
HEADER WTPN21 PGTW.
EASTERN MICRONESIA
THE FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE AROUND INVEST 95W, WHICH IS STILL RATED AS
MEDIUM FOR DEVELOPMENT FROM JTWC (THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER).
VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS THE LLCC (LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER) HAS
DEVELOPED JUST SOUTHWEST OF UJAE. CURRENTLY, MAJURO HAS MAINLY HAD A
LOT OF MID AND HIGH-LEVEL CONVECTIVE DEBRIS, BUT LITTLE HEAVY
RAINFALL OR STRONGER WIND GUSTS. WITH THAT SAID, AN ISOLATED HEAVIER
SHOWER OR TWO REMAIN POSSIBLE. KOSRAE HAS STARTED TO SEE THE "FRINGE
EFFECTS" OF THIS DEVELOPING SYSTEM, BUT OVERALL, TEMPORAL AND AREAL
CONCERNS LOOK SUFFICIENT TO NOT HAVE A HEADLINE IN EITHER LOCATION.
FOR POHNPEI, 95W IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO PASS OVER 300 MILES NORTH
OF YOU, POSSIBLY AS A DEVELOPING TROPICAL STORM. WITH THAT SAID, IT
REMAINS UNCLEAR IF YOU'LL SEE A WEST-SOUTHWEST MONSOON FLOW DEVELOP
GIVEN HOW FAR NORTH IT'LL BE PASSING. ADDITIONALLY, THE MODEL MEAN
CONSENSUS FROM THE GEFS, ECENS, GOOGLE DEEPMIND SHOWS A MINIMAL TS
(TROPICAL STORM) AS IT DOES SO, WHICH MAY LIMIT THE TEMPORAL DURATION
OF ANY HEAVIER RAINFALL. AS SUCH, WE INCLUDED A HEADLINE IN THE
UPDATED SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT, BUT FOR NOW, WE REFRAINED FROM
INCLUDING IT IN THE FORECAST ITSELF. THE MODELS ALSO SHOWED A "DRY
SLOT" POSSIBLY PASSING OVER A GOOD CHUNK OF POHNPEI STATE, LOWERING
CONFIDENCE IN HOW LONG OF A HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL YOU MIGHT SEE.
HOWEVER, THIS TOPIC WILL BE REVISITED WITH THE AFTERNOON FORECAST
PACKAGE TOMORROW.
LOOKING LONGER-TERM (THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK), THE BULK OF THE
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE PORTRAYS THE NET (NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH) WILL
REMAIN SITUATED ACROSS THE REGION, WITH ADDITIONAL TROPICAL
DISTURBANCES (SURFACE TROUGHS) CROSSING THE AREA FROM TIME TO TIME.
THESE TROUGHS COULD MAINTAIN A FAIRLY UNSETTLED PATTERN FOR MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK.
AS FOR MARINE CONDITIONS, ASIDE FROM AN ISOLATED CONVECTIVELY-AIDED
WIND GUST, MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR
POHNPEI AND KOSRAE THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, OCCASIONALLY
TOUCHING FRESH THRESHOLDS FROM TIME TO TIME. MAJURO LOOKS TO REMAIN
LIGHT TO GENTLE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SEAS LOOK TO AVERAGE
BETWEEN 4 AND 6 FEET AREA-WIDE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WESTERN MICRONESIA
QUIETER CONDITIONS PREVAIL OVER PALAU THIS AFTERNOON AS THE NEARBY
MONSOON PATTERN SHIFTS WESTWARD AND AWAY WITH THE MOVEMENT OF JTWC'S
INVEST 96W, NOW LOCATED OVER THE PHILIPPINES. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS DEVELOPED OVER PALAU TODAY AS A COL AREA MOVED IN NEARBY, WHICH
ALLOWED ISLAND-EFFECT THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON.
AFTERNOON ISLAND CONVECTION HAS BEEN INCLUDED IN PALAU'S WEDNESDAY
FORECAST AS THE LOCAL WIND FIELD REMAINS LIGHT, AND VERY BROAD
SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES TO FUNNEL DEEP MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. TO
THE NORTHEAST, MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS ARE SEEN OVER YAP PROPER,
WHICH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN A DRY, GENTLE TRADE-WIND REGIME OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. FAIRLY DRY CONDITIONS ALSO PREVAIL FOR CHUUK,
LOCATED WITHIN A BROAD COL REGION BETWEEN INVEST 95W OVER EASTERN
MICRONESIA AND A VERY WEAK NET CIRCULATION OVER YAP STATE. HOWEVER,
MODELS DEPICT SHOWERS BUILDING NEAR WENO OVERNIGHT AS CONVERGENCE
INCREASES NEARBY, ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF INVEST 95W,
WHICH REMAINS A VERY BROAD, ELONGATED DISTURBANCE. THEREAFTER,
ALTHOUGH MODELS DEPICT A FAIRLY DRY PERIOD FOR CHUUK FOR SEVERAL
DAYS, STRENGTHENING WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF 95W MAY
BRING INCREASINGLY WET WEATHER TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS CONTINUE, WITH ALTIMETRY AND YAP BUOY DATA
SUGGESTING COMBINED SEAS BETWEEN 3 AND 4 FEET ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION. SOUTHWEST SWELL AT PALAU WILL BE OVERTAKEN BY AN EAST TO
NORTHEAST SWELL OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. CHUUK WILL SEE AN INCREASE
IN SEAS BY THE END OF THE WEEK, ASSOCIATED WITH AN INCREASE IN
NORTHEAST SWELL FROM DEVELOPING INVEST 95W. THE DEVELOPMENT OF INVEST
95W IS BEING CLOSELY MONITORED, AS MODELS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR
MARINE AND COASTAL HAZARDS TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK FOR CHUUK.
GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GU...NONE.
MP...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
MARIANAS: OGLE
EAST MICRONESIA: DOLL
WEST MICRONESIA: DECOU
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