927
AXPQ20 PGUM 010320 AAA
TWDPQ
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
120 PM CHST WED JUL 1 2026
UPDATED FOR INVEST 95W BEING UPGRADED TO TD 09W
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC BETWEEN
THE EQUATOR AND 25N FROM 130E TO 180. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY/DATA, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR,
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (JTWC) HAS UPGRADED INVEST 95W
TO TD 09W. IT'S CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR 9N163E, OR ROUGHLY 360
MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF POHNPEI. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK FROM
JTWC CONTINUES THE EARLIER THEME THAT A GRADUAL WEST-NORTHWEST
TRACK TOWARDS AND EVENTUALLY THROUGH THE MARIANAS REMAINS A
DISTINCT POSSIBILITY. IT'S IMPORTANT TO NOTE 09W CONTINUES TO
GRADUALLY BECOME BETTER DEVELOPED, WITH ADDITIONAL ADJUSTMENTS IN
TRACK, STRENGTH, AND TIMING PROBABLE.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH MODELS
SHOWING FURTHER ORGANIZATION NEAR THE FAR NORTHWESTERN MARSHALL
ISLANDS AS IT MEANDERS GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWEST TOWARDS THE OPEN
OCEAN BETWEEN POHNPEI AND ENEWETAK. PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN MARSHALL
ISLANDS, KOSRAE STATE, AND NORTHEAST POHNPEI STATE WILL CONTINUE TO
EXPERIENCE ELEVATED SEAS AND SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH
GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO, WITH ENEWETAK SEEING
THE MOST IMPACTS. SEAS NEAR THE CENTER AND NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER
ARE LIKELY REACHING HAZARDOUS CRITERIA FOR SMALL CRAFTS AND
CONTINUING TO INCREASE. AS 09W CONTINUES TO CONSOLIDATE AND FORM
A MORE DEFINED CIRCULATION, CONFIDENCE WILL INCREASE IN ITS TRACK,
INTENSITY, AND TIMING. MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO SHOW 09W DEVELOPING
INTO A LARGE TYPHOON OVER THE OPEN OCEAN IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS
WITH TRACKS PASSING SOMEWHERE THROUGH THE MARIANAS ANYWHERE FROM
JUST SOUTH OF GUAM TO THE FAR NORTHERN MARIANAS ISLANDS NEAR
ALAMAGAN BETWEEN LATE THIS WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK. 09W IS
BEING CLOSELY MONITORED FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS
TO THE MARIANAS AS IT IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A GENERAL TRACK TO
THE WEST-NORTHWEST.
FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE REFER TO BULLETINS FROM THE JOINT
TYPHOON WARNING CENTER UNDER WMO HEADER WTPN31 PGTW AND FROM THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UNDER WMO HEADER WTPQ31 PGUM.
..OTHER WEATHER SYSTEMS
MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SOUTHEAST ASIA, THROUGH INVEST 96W
NEAR THE PHILIPPINES, AND CONTINUING INTO THE REGION NEAR 11N130E. IT
PASSES THROUGH PALAU AND ENDS IN SOUTHEASTERN YAP STATE, WHERE IT
MEETS WITH THE NEAR-EQUATORAL TROUGH (NET) THAT EXTENDS ACROSS
EASTERN MICRONESIA. MOST OF THE HEAVIER CONVECTION IS MAINLY WEST OF
THE 130E, THOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
STILL DEVELOPING AROUND PALAU AND FAR SOUTH OF YAP PROPER. THE AREA
WHERE THE MONSOON TROUGH THE NET MEET IS CREATING DIFFUSE FLOW ACROSS
CHUUK STATE, SUPPORTING FAIRLY DRY WEATHER AND GENTLE WESTERLY FLOW.
THE MONSOON TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS BEFORE BEING INFLUENCED BY 09W.
NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH...
THE NET PASSES THROUGH A WEAK ELONGATED CIRCULATION EAST OF THE DATE
LINE AT 6N180 AS IT CONTINUES WESTWARD, PASSING THROUGH TD 09W AND
THROUGH POHNPEI. IT THEN EXTENDS WEST-SOUTHWEST PASSING SOUTH OF
CHUUK AND ENDING AT A COL AROUND 1N141E. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING SOUTH OF CHUUK AND POHNPEI
AND THROUGH KOSRAE, BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS IN COVERAGE AROUND
TD 09W. FARTHER EAST, ONLY SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
VISIBLE. WESTERLIES ARE VISIBLE FROM THE FAR WEST END ALL THE WAY
INTO 09W, BEING AMPLIFIED BY ANOTHER BROAD CIRCULATION SOUTH OF
THE EQUATOR. AS TD 09W SLOWLY BECOMES MORE ORGANIZED, THE NET IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST BEFORE BECOMING MORE
INDISTINGUISHABLE FROM TD 09W.
TUTT...
UPPER-LEVEL WATER VAPOR AND 200MB VORTICITY ANALYSIS SHOWS THE TUTT
EXTENDING ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF 20N, FROM BEYOND THE DATE LINE AND
PASSING NEAR WAKE ISLAND BEFORE TURNING SLIGHTLY WEST-SOUTHWEST AND
ENDING NORTHEAST OF THE MARIANAS. THE TUTT REMAINS CONVECTIVELY
INACTIVE AS SATELLITE BLENDED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCTS SHOWS
AN AREA OF RELATIVELY DRY AIR WITH VALUES AROUND 1.4 TO 1.8 INCHES,
EXTENDING ALONG THE TUTT, WITH JUST SMALL POCKETS OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A MODERATE TRADE-WIND PATTERN NORTH OF 12N. THE TUTT
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY QUASI-STATIONARY NEAR WAKE ISLAND
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, POTENTIALLY WEAKENING AS 95W MOVES INTO
THE VICINITY.
DOLL/OGLE
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