602
AXPQ20 PGUM 020150
TWDPQ
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
1150 AM CHST THU JUL 2 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC BETWEEN
THE EQUATOR AND 25N FROM 130E TO 180. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY/DATA, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR,
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
TROPICAL CYCLONES...
THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (JTWC) UPGRADED TD 09W TO A
TROPICAL STORM EARLY THIS MORNING, SO TD 09W IS NOW TS 09W. THE
OFFICIAL TRACK REMAINS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY'S WITH THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE MOVING GENERALLY TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE COMING
DAYS. THERE STILL REMAINS A GOOD AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE
EXACT TRACK OF 09W AS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE CONTINUES TO BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED. THE LATEST FORECAST HAVE BEEN GENERALLY
CONSISTENT WITH WINDS HOVERING AROUND CATEGORY 4 STRENGTH, THOUGH
SOME MODELS DO VARY IN STRENGTH BETWEEN CATEGORY 3 AND CATEGORY 5.
TS 09W IS LOCATED AROUND 1,000 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM THIS
MORNING AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT. RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF TS 09W IS POSSIBLE OVER THE
NEXT 24-36 HOURS. CHOPPY SEAS, GUSTY WINDS, SCATTERED TO
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS, AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST IN THE
VICINITY OF 09W OVER THE COMING DAYS AS IT CONTINUES ITS WEST-
NORTHWEST TREK. WE'LL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THINGS CLOSELY OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO
THE MARIANAS.
FOR MORE INFORMATION, PLEASE REFER TO THE TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC
ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UNDER WMO HEADER
WTPQ31 PGUM AND THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING ISSUED BY THE JOINT
TYPHOON WARNING CENTER UNDER WMO HEADER WTPN31 PGTW.
..OTHER WEATHER SYSTEMS
MONSOON TROUGH...
A MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SOUTHEAST ASIA, THROUGH TD 10W, NEAR
THE PHILIPPINES, AND ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 11N130E. IT EXTENDS
FROM 130E TO NEAR PALAU AND MEETS THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH (NET)
IN SOUTHEAST YAP STATE. THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS AND CONVECTION
REMAIN WEST OF 130E IN THE VICINITY OF TD 10W; THOUGH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ONGOING IN THE VICINITY OF PALAU AND
PORTIONS OF YAP AND CHUUK STATES. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH...
THE NET STARTS IN SOUTHEAST YAP STATE AND EXTENDS EASTWARD,
PASSING SOUTH OF CHUUK, THEN EXTENDS TO THE NORTHEAST TO NEAR TS
09W, THEN DIVES TO THE SOUTHEAST NEAR KOSRAE, AND EXTENDS EASTWARD
AS IT THEN EXITS THE REGION NEAR 7N180. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS ARE OBSERVED IN THE VICINITY OF THE NET AXIS, WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING WELL SOUTH OF KOSRAE. THE NET
WILL BECOME MORE DIFFUSE AS TS 09W CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED AND STRENGTHENS OVER THE COMING DAYS.
TUTT...
A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) IS LOCATED JUST EAST
OF THE DATE LINE, NEAR 23N, AND EXTENDS TO THE SOUTHWEST, PASSING
JUST SOUTH OF WAKE ISLAND, THEN EXTENDING NORTH OF TS 09W, AND
ENDING NEAR THE MARIANAS. NO CONVECTION IS OBSERVED IN THE
VICINITY OF THE TUTT THIS MORNING, BUT ISOLATED TO LOW-END
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OBSERVED. THE TUTT WILL REMAIN QUASI-
STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
SHOWER COVERAGE EXPECTED.
WHISNANT
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