724
FXPQ50 PGUM 051950
AFDGUM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
550 AM CHST THU AUG 6 2026
MARIANAS UPDATE
LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE FORECAST. GENTLE TO FRESH WESTERLIES
WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE MARIANAS TODAY, AS A WESTERLY MONSOON SURGE
SLOWS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. COMBINED SEAS OF 8 TO 11 FEET ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT, TO THEN DROP A FOOT AFTER AND
PERSIST AS SUCH FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS, REMAINING HAZARDOUS TO SMALL
CRAFT. AS SUCH, THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS LIKELY TO BE EXTENDED, IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.
EASTERN MICRONESIA UPDATE
A LARGELY DRIER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN
MICRONESIA, AS MOST OF THE CONVECTION REMAINS ANCHORED ALONG THE
MONSOON TROUGH AND EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES WELL TO THE NORTH.
INTRODUCED HEADLINES FOR POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUS SURF DEVELOPING ALONG
WEST FACING REEFS OF POHNPEI AND SOUTH FACING REEFS OF KOSRAE
BEGINNING TONIGHT.
WESTERN MICRONESIA UPDATE
SIMILAR TO THE PATTERN ACROSS THEIR EASTERN NEIGHBORS, A SECONDARY
TROPICAL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO PRODUCE A DRY SPELL ACROSS
THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. INTRODUCED A HEADLINE FOR
POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUS SURF DEVELOPING ALONG NORTH FACING REEFS OF
YAP BEGINNING TONIGHT. OTHERWISE, THE FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED,
EXCEPT FOR MINOR TWEAKS TO THE TEMPERATURES.
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 536 PM CHST WED AUG 5 2026/
MARIANAS SYNOPSIS...
SATELLITE AND RADAR OBSERVATIONS SHOW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. ALTIMETRY AND BUOY DATA SHOW COMBINED SEAS BETWEEN 8
TO 11 FEET.
DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER ROUND OF MONSOON SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE CURRENTLY MOVING
ACROSS THE MARIANAS THIS AFTERNOON. FREQUENT LIGHTNING HAS BEEN SEEN
IN SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY BEFORE SHOWER COVERAGE BEGINS TO TAPER
DOWN. A LULL IN THE MONSOON PATTERN IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
AS INVEST 96W MOVES NORTHWARD OVER THE COMING DAYS, SHIFTING THE
STRONGER MONSOON FLOW NORTHWARD.
TOWARDS THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND, MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS SEVERAL
PIECES OF VORTICITY EJECTING EASTWARDS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN
MARIANAS SOUTH OF INVEST 96W (OR POTENTIAL TROPICAL SYSTEM DOWN THE
ROAD). THESE CIRCULATIONS WILL HELP REINVIGORATE THE MONSOON AND
ENHANCE WINDS ACROSS THE MARIANAS. THIS WILL BRING INCREASED CHANGES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL. MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON
WHERE THE STRONGEST WINDS AND HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL SET UP, BUT THE
POTENTIAL FOR AN IMPACTFUL MONSOON SURGE REMAINS POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK.
MARINE...
COMBINED SEA REMAIN BETWEEN 9 AND 11 FEET AND ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
WITHIN THAT RANGE THROUGH THURSDAY. A SLIGHT DECREASE IN SEAS IS
EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY BEFORE ANOTHER INCREASE THIS
WEEKEND. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND IF TRENDS CONTINUE. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS
IN EFFECT FOR WEST AND NORTH FACING REEFS AND A HIGH RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WEST, NORTH, AND EAST FACING REEFS
UNTIL SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
TROPICAL SYSTEMS...
A WEAK CIRCULATION, JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER'S (JTWC)
INVEST 96W IS CENTERED JUST WEST OF WAKE ISLAND NEAR 19N166E. INVEST
96W IS RATED LOW, WHICH MEANS DEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS
NOT EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 96W REMAINS VERY BROAD WITH A
DISPLACED WIND FIELD TO THE SOUTH AND EAST SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION.
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS 96W LIFTING NORTHWARD, ALLOWING THE MONSOON
SURGE TO SHIFT NORTHWARD WITH IT.
EASTERN MICRONESIA...
THE PERSISTENT WEST TO SOUTHWEST WIND WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK, WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO
GENTLE, WITH A WEST SWELL AT POHNPEI, MAINLY SOUTHWEST SWELL AT
KOSRAE, AND SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST SWELL AT MAJURO. THESE MARINE
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO NEXT WEEK AS WELL.
WESTERN MICRONESIA...
DRY TIMES ARE ON TAP IN WESTERN MICRONESIA, LIKELY FOR THE NEXT WEEK,
POTENTIALLY FOR THE NEXT TWO WEEKS. LOOKS FOR EITHER ISOLATED OR NO
SHOWERS DURING THIS TIME. ENJOY THE OUTDOORS DURING THE DRIER
WEATHER, AND HOPEFULLY IT DOESN'T LEAD TO A DROUGHT QUITE YET. WE
WILL PROBABLY HAVE MORE THAN ENOUGH OF THAT NEXT YEAR AS THE EL NINO
BEGINS TO DECAY.
MONSOONAL WESTERLIES LOOK LIKELY TO CONTINUE AT AROUND THE 10 TO 20
KNOT LEVEL, POSSIBLY 5 TO 15 AT CHUUK. MAYBE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
THE MONTH THE PATTERN WILL SHIFT.
WE WILL HAVE A SUBSTANTIAL NORTH SWELL AS TYPHOON DOLPHIN PASSES WELL
NORTH OF THE AREA, MOVING FROM EAST TO WEST ON ITS WAY TOWARD OKINAWA
AND THEN POSSIBLY EITHER THE CHINESE COAST OR THE KOREAN PENINSULA.
MODELS THEN SHOW ANOTHER PUSH OF NORTH SWELL ABOUT A WEEK LATER,
POSSIBLY FROM A FUTURE TROPICAL SYSTEM.
GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GU...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR GUZ001.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CHST SATURDAY FOR GUZ001.
MP...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR MPZ001>003.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CHST SATURDAY FOR MPZ001>003.
MARIANAS WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CHST FRIDAY FOR PMZ151>154.
MARIANAS/EAST AND WEST MICRONESIA/TROPICAL UPDATE: MONTVILA
MARIANAS: WILLIAMS
EAST MICRONESIA: DOLL
WEST MICRONESIA: STANKO
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