081
AXPQ20 PGUM 310050
TWDPQ
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
1050 AM CHST MON AUG 31 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC BETWEEN
THE EQUATOR AND 25N FROM 130E TO 180. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY/DATA, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR,
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
TROPICAL AND MONSOON DISTURBANCES...
A DEVELOPING MONSOON DISTURBANCE, INVEST 94W, IS CENTERED NE OF
LUZON NEAR 20.8N 133.2E AND IS CURRENTLY THE SUBJECT OF A TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (JTWC).
THIS MEANS THAT 94W IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE (TROPICAL DEPRESSION) WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 94W IS
CURRENTLY MOVING SLOWLY NNW. LATEST SATELLITE DATA SHOWS A BROAD,
ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) OBSCURED BY PERSISTENT
CONVECTION S THROUGH W OF THE CENTER. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND UP TO 230 MILES MAINLY SSE TO
WNW OF THE CENTER. SINCE CONDITIONS REMAIN CONDUCIVE TO DEVELOPMENT,
INVEST 94W IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES NNW,
POSSIBLY MOVING OUT OF THE GUAM AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY (AOR) WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
FOR MORE INFORMATION ON INVEST 94W AND THE TCFA, SEE BULLETINS ISSUED
BY JTWC UNDER WMO HEADERS ABPW10 PGTW AND WTPN21 PGTW.
A WEAK MONSOON DISTURBANCE, INVEST 95W, IS FOUND ESE OF GUAM, NE OF
WENO, CHUUK, NEAR 11.4N 154.0E. INVEST 95W IS CURRENTLY RATED SUB-
LOW, MEANING DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
LATEST ASCAT ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK CIRCULATION WITH LIGHT WINDS NEAR
THE CENTER AND STRONGER ENVIRONMENTAL WINDS FARTHER S WITHIN A
MONSOON SURGE ACROSS THROUGH NE OF POHNPEI. CONVECTION IS FOUND
MAINLY ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF 95W, TO THE W THROUGH N, BEGINNING
AROUND 65 MILES FROM THE CENTER, OUT TO 300 MILES. INVEST 95W LOOKS
TO SLOWLY MOVE TOWARD THE NNW OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, WITH LITTLE
DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED UNTIL AFTER THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
..OTHER WEATHER SYSTEMS
MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE AOR NEAR 13N130E, EXTENDING ESE
THROUGH INVEST 94W, CROSSING THE MARIANAS NEAR TINIAN, TO INVEST 95W.
THE TROUGH THEN CONTINUES E TO NW OF KWAJALEIN NEAR 13N166E, WHERE
IT TURNS ESE TO BEYOND THE DATE LINE NEAR 8N. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND S OF THE TROUGH WITHIN
A BAND OF CONVERGENCE BETWEEN 14N AND 15N, W OF 137E. ANOTHER BAND OF
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IS FOUND W
OF THE MARIANAS INTO EASTERN YAP STATE WITHIN A COL AREA S OF THE
TROUGH. A MONSOON SURGE S OF THE TROUGH AND INVEST 95W IS GENERATING
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM FAR
EASTERN YAP STATE, ACROSS CHUUK STATE, INCLUDING WENO, TO JUST W OF
POHNPEI. E OF POHNPEI, PATCHES OF SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FOUND ACROSS
KOSRAE AND THE SOUTHERN MARSHALL ISLANDS. THE TROUGH LOOKS TO
STRENGTHEN OVER THE COMING DAYS, WITH INCREASED CONVECTION ACROSS
THE REGION.
SURFACE TROUGHS...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS E FROM NEAR 19N165E TO END NEAR
19N174E. THIS TROUGH IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS AND E OF WAKE ISLAND. THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE N
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND BE ABSORBED BY A DECAYING TROUGH, THE
REMNANTS OF THE PREVIOUS MONSOON TROUGH, NEAR 25N.
KLEESCHULTE
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
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