697
FXHW60 PHFO 071322
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
322 AM HST WED MAY 7 2025
SYNOPSIS
MODERATE TO LOCALLY BREEZY TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS FAR NORTH OF THE STATE. RAINFALL
WILL BE FOCUSED OVER WINDWARD SLOPES, THOUGH SHOWERS WILL BE
SLIGHTLY ENHANCED AND WILL PERIODICALLY PASS OVER LEEWARD AREAS
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
DISCUSSION
THIS MORNING'S RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW SCATTERED SHOWERS
MOVING INTO WINDWARD AREAS ON THE TRADES, WITH SOME OCCASIONAL
SPILL OVER INTO LEEWARD AREAS. WHILE THESE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN FAST
MOVING, SOME HAVE PRODUCED BRIEF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL, WITH
SELECT WINDWARD AREAS ACROSS KAUAI AND OAHU RECEIVING BETWEEN A
QUARTER AND HALF AN INCH OF RAIN IN THE LAST 6 HOURS.
A STRONG SURFACE HIGH CENTERED FAR NORTHWEST OF THE STATE WILL
WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AS IT GRADUALLY PROGRESSES EAST-SOUTHEAST AND
MAINTAINS MODERATE TO LOCALLY BREEZY TRADES ACROSS THE ISLAND
CHAIN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. RELATIVELY WEAK TROUGHING ALOFT
WILL PROVIDE MODEST INSTABILITY, WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY
ENHANCED SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH FRIDAY AS BATCHES OF MOISTURE
CONTINUE TO BE BROUGHT IN ON THE TRADES. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
BRIEF PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN OVER WINDWARD AREAS, WITH
SOME SHOWERS OCCASIONALLY MAKING IT OVER THE ISLAND TERRAIN INTO
LEEWARD AREAS AS INVERSION HEIGHTS REMAIN ELEVATED.
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS A MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD, INCREASING ATMOSPHERIC
STABILITY AND LOWERING INVERSION HEIGHTS. THIS MORE STABLE TRADE
WIND PATTERN WILL HELP TO BETTER CONFINE SHOWERS TO WINDWARD AND
MAUKA AREAS, WITH FEWER SHOWERS PASSING OVER INTO LEEWARD AREAS.
THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDING EASTWARD WELL NORTH OF THE STATE WILL
MAINTAIN MODERATE TO LOCALLY BREEZY TRADE WINDS THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
AVIATION
MODERATE TO LOCALLY BREEZY TRADES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS AND GENERALLY FOCUS CLOUDS AND SHOWERS OVER WINDWARD
AREAS. A POCKET OF MOISTURE MOVING IN ON THE TRADES WILL MAINTAIN
A STEADY FLOW OF SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS, WITH MORE FREQUENT PERIODS OF MVFR AND BRIEF IFR EXPECTED
DUE TO MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWER ACTIVITY. OTHERWISE, VFR
SHOULD PREVAIL.
AIRMET TANGO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MODERATE LOW-LEVEL TURBULENCE
OVER AND IMMEDIATELY SW THROUGH NW OF ALL ISLAND MOUNTAINS DUE TO
THE LOCALLY BREEZY TRADE WINDS. THIS AIRMET WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
AIRMET SIERRA IS IN EFFECT FOR MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION ACROSS NORTH
THROUGH EAST SECTIONS OF THE ISLANDS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS DUE
TO AN UPTICK IN SHOWER ACTIVITY.
MARINE
FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AS THE SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED NORTH OF THE ISLANDS. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL PERSIST EACH DAY FOR THE TYPICAL WINDIER
WATERS AND CHANNELS AROUND MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND.
SURF ALONG EXPOSED NORTH AND WEST-FACING SHORES WILL REMAIN UP
AROUND AVERAGE THROUGH THURSDAY DUE TO A MEDIUM-PERIOD NORTHWEST
SWELL THAT FILLED IN TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SWELL WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFTING OUT OF THE NORTH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
SURF ALONG SOUTH-FACING SHORES WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH
FRIDAY AS A BACKGROUND SOUTH SWELL FADES. A FRESH LONG-PERIOD
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SWELL IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE OVER THE WEEKEND,
BRINGING AN UPWARD TREND WITH ABOVE-AVERAGE SURF. FORERUNNERS
SHOULD BEGIN FILLING IN FRIDAY, WITH THE SWELL PEAKING LATE
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS SWELL HAS PEAKED SLIGHTLY ABOVE
GUIDANCE AT THE AMERICAN SAMOAN PACIOOS BUOY OVERNIGHT, WHICH WILL
TRANSLATE TO A PEAK LOCALLY LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, LIKELY
ENOUGH TO DRIVE SURF TO THE ADVISORY LEVEL.
SURF ALONG EAST-FACING SHORES WILL REMAIN ROUGH AND CHOPPY, WITH
HEIGHTS HOVERING AROUND AVERAGE INTO THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
HEIGHTS COULD DIP BELOW AVERAGE BY THE WEEKEND DUE TO A WEAKNESS
FORMING IN THE RIDGE FAR NORTHEAST OF THE AREA, LEADING TO THE
UPSTREAM TRADES DIMINISHING. A RETURN TO AVERAGE LEVELS IS
EXPECTED LATER THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE TRADES
STRENGTHEN UPSTREAM.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST FRIDAY FOR MAALAEA BAY-
PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG
ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.
DISCUSSION...FARRIS
AVIATION...FARRIS
MARINE...GIBBS
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