207
FXHW60 PHFO 080142
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
342 PM HST WED MAY 7 2025
SYNOPSIS
LOCALLY BREEZY TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS FAR NORTH OF THE STATE. SOMEWHAT ACTIVE
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS INTO THE
WEEKEND. THE GUSTY TRADES WILL CARRY BRIEF SHOWERS OVER MOST
LEEWARD AREAS, WHILE THE LEEWARD SLOPES OF THE BIG ISLAND
EXPERIENCE SPOTTY SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
DISCUSSION
A SOMEWHAT ACTIVE SHOWER PATTERN CONTINUES WITHIN THE LOCALLY
BREEZY TRADE WIND FLOW. PERSISTENT ROBUST SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED ABOUT 1200 MILES TO THE NORTHWEST HAS THE ISLANDS LOCKED
WITHIN A LOCALLY BREEZY AND GUSTY TRADE WIND FLOW, AND BROAD
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE REGION HAS WEAKENED AND ELEVATED
THE INVERSION, SUPPORTING A FIELD OF SHOWER-BEARING CUMULUS OVER
AND 500 MILES EAST OF THE STATE. A LOOSELY ORGANIZED AREA OF
MOISTURE WITHIN THIS CLOUD FIELD MOVED OVER LAST NIGHT AND THIS
MORNING, PRODUCING ROUGHLY ONE QUARTER TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN
INCH OF RAINFALL OVER WETTER WINDWARD AND MAUKA LOCALES. THE GUSTY
WINDS PERIODICALLY CARRIED SOME RAINFALL OVER LEEWARD AREAS FROM
KAUAI TO WEST MAUI, BUT ACCUMULATIONS WERE WELL BELOW A TENTH OF
AN INCH. THE LEEWARD SLOPES OF THE BIG ISLAND ARE TRANSITIONING
TOWARD A MORE SUMMERLIKE PATTERN OF SPOTTY SHOWERS, SOME BRIEFLY
HEAVY, DURING THE MIDDAY THROUGH EVENING HOURS, FOLLOWED BY
DIMINISHED RAINFALL OVERNIGHT.
BREEZY AND SOMEWHAT WET TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST
FRIDAY AS ADDITIONAL POCKETS OF MOISTURE MOVE THROUGH AND THE WEAK
UPER-LEVEL TROUGH KEEPS THE INVERSION ELEVATED. A RIDGE ALOFT WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE REGION DURING THE WEEKEND, BRINGING AN INCREASE
IN STABILITY. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SUGGESTING THAT A BAND OF
MOISTURE DRIFTING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST COULD KEEP WINDWARD
RAINFALL MORE ACTIVE OVER WINDWARD KAUAI AND OAHU, BUT THE
INCREASINGLY STABLE CONDITIONS MAY LIMIT LEEWARD RAINFALL, EVEN AS
THE TRADES REMAIN BREEZY AND GUSTY. TYPICAL TRADE WIND WEATHER
LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
MODERATE TO LOCALLY BREEZY TRADES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS AND GENERALLY FOCUS CLOUDS AND SHOWERS OVER WINDWARD
AREAS. PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE
AS SHOWERS INCREASE THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY.
OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.
AIRMET TANGO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MODERATE LOW-LEVEL TURBULENCE
OVER AND IMMEDIATELY SW THROUGH NW OF ALL ISLAND MOUNTAINS DUE TO
THE LOCALLY BREEZY TRADE WINDS. THIS AIRMET WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. IN ADDITION, AIRMET SIERRA FOR MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION ACROSS NORTH THROUGH EAST SECTIONS OF THE ISLANDS
MAY BE NEEDED LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY AS SHOWERS
INCREASE.
MARINE
FRESH TO STRONG TRADES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A
SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS NORTH OF THE ISLANDS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WILL PERSIST EACH DAY FOR THE TYPICAL WINDIER WATERS AND CHANNELS
AROUND MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND.
SURF ALONG NORTH AND WEST-FACING SHORES WILL REMAIN UP AROUND
AVERAGE THROUGH THURSDAY DUE TO A MEDIUM-PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL
THAT FILLED IN TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SWELL WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
OUT OF THE NORTH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
SURF ALONG SOUTH-FACING SHORES WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH
FRIDAY. A FRESH LONG-PERIOD SOUTH- SOUTHWEST SWELL IS EXPECTED TO
ARRIVE OVER THE WEEKEND, BRINGING AN UPWARD TREND WITH ABOVE-
AVERAGE SURF. FORERUNNERS SHOULD BEGIN FILLING IN FRIDAY, WITH THE
SWELL PEAKING LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS SWELL HAS PEAKED
SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE AT THE AMERICAN SAMOAN BUOY, WHICH WILL
TRANSLATE TO A PEAK LOCALLY LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
SURF ALONG EAST-FACING SHORES WILL REMAIN ROUGH AND CHOPPY, WITH
HEIGHTS AROUND AVERAGE INTO THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. HEIGHTS
COULD DIP BELOW AVERAGE BY THE WEEKEND DUE TO A WEAKNESS FORMING
IN THE RIDGE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA, LEADING TO THE UPSTREAM
TRADES DIMINISHING. A RETURN TO AVERAGE LEVELS IS EXPECTED LATER
THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE TRADES STRENGTHEN
UPSTREAM.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST FRIDAY FOR MAALAEA BAY-
PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG
ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.
DISCUSSION...WROE
AVIATION...VAUGHAN/WROE
MARINE...KINO
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page