134
FXHW60 PHFO 081321
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
321 AM HST THU MAY 8 2025
SYNOPSIS
MODERATE TO LOCALLY BREEZY TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS FAR NORTH OF THE
STATE. SOMEWHAT ACTIVE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WINDWARD AND
MAUKA AREAS INTO THE WEEKEND. THE GUSTY TRADES WILL CARRY BRIEF
SHOWERS INTO SOME LEEWARD AREAS (ESPECIALLY THROUGH TOMORROW AS
INVERSION HEIGHTS REMAIN ELEVATED), WHILE THE LEEWARD SLOPES OF
THE BIG ISLAND EXPERIENCE SPOTTY SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.
DISCUSSION
THIS MORNING'S RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW CLOUDS AND
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS RIDING INTO WINDWARD AREAS ON THE
TRADES, WITH PERIODIC SPILL OVER INTO LEEWARD AREAS. RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS HAVE BEEN MINIMAL, WITH ONLY A FEW LOCATIONS
RECEIVING UP TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH IN THE LAST 6 HOURS.
A STRONG SURFACE HIGH CENTERED FAR NORTHWEST OF THE STATE WILL
GRADUALLY TRAVERSE EASTWARD AND MAINTAIN MODERATE TO LOCALLY
BREEZY TRADES ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
RELATIVELY WEAK TROUGHING ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE MODEST
INSTABILITY, WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY ENHANCED SHOWER
ACTIVITY THROUGH TOMORROW AS BATCHES OF MOISTURE CONTINUE TO BE
BROUGHT IN ON THE TRADES. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO BRIEF PERIODS
OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN OVER WINDWARD AREAS, WITH SOME SHOWERS
OCCASIONALLY MAKING IT OVER THE ISLAND TERRAIN INTO LEEWARD AREAS
AS INVERSION HEIGHTS REMAIN ELEVATED. THE LEEWARD SLOPES OF THE
BIG ISLAND WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE SPOTTY SHOWERS, SOME
BRIEFLY HEAVY, DURING THE MIDDAY THROUGH EVENING HOURS, FOLLOWED
BY DIMINISHED RAINFALL OVERNIGHT.
MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD OVERHEAD THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK, INCREASING ATMOSPHERIC STABILITY AND LOWERING INVERSION
HEIGHTS. THIS MORE STABLE TRADE WIND PATTERN WILL HELP TO BETTER
CONFINE SHOWERS TO WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS AS MORE POCKETS OF
MOISTURE RIDE IN ON THE TRADES, WITH FEWER SHOWERS PASSING OVER
INTO LEEWARD AREAS. THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDING EASTWARD WELL NORTH
OF THE STATE WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO LOCALLY BREEZY TRADE WINDS
THROUGH MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
MODERATE TO LOCALLY BREEZY TRADES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS AND GENERALLY FOCUS CLOUDS AND SHOWERS OVER WINDWARD
AREAS, PARTICULARLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS
WHERE PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES REMAIN LIKELY.
OTHERWISE, EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY AS
SHOWER ACTIVITY TRENDS DOWN.
AIRMET TANGO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MODERATE LOW-LEVEL TURBULENCE
OVER AND IMMEDIATELY SW THROUGH NW OF ALL ISLAND MOUNTAINS DUE TO
THE LOCALLY BREEZY TRADE WINDS. THIS AIRMET WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. IN ADDITION, AIRMET SIERRA FOR MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION ACROSS NORTH THROUGH EAST SECTIONS OF THE ISLANDS
REMAINS IN EFFECT AND MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED AS SCATTERED SHOWERS
PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
MARINE
FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADES WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS A SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED NORTH OF THE ISLANDS. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL PERSIST EACH DAY FOR THE TYPICAL WINDIER
WATERS AND CHANNELS AROUND MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND.
SURF ALONG SOUTH-FACING SHORES WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE INTO
FRIDAY AS A BACKGROUND SOUTH SWELL LINGERS. A FRESH LONG-PERIOD
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SWELL IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE FRIDAY, BRINGING AN
UPWARD TREND WITH ABOVE-AVERAGE SURF THIS WEEKEND. FORERUNNERS
WILL BEGIN FILLING IN FRIDAY, WITH THE SWELL PEAKING LATE SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS SWELL PEAKED ABOVE GUIDANCE AT THE AMERICAN
SAMOAN PACIOOS BUOY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, WHICH WILL
TRANSLATE TO A PEAK LOCALLY LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, LIKELY
DRIVING SURF TO THE ADVISORY LEVEL.
SURF ALONG EAST-FACING SHORES WILL REMAIN ROUGH AND CHOPPY, WITH
HEIGHTS HOVERING AROUND AVERAGE EACH DAY.
SURF ALONG EXPOSED NORTH AND WEST-FACING SHORES WILL REMAIN
AROUND AVERAGE TODAY DUE TO A LINGERING SHORT-PERIOD NORTHWEST
SWELL. THIS SWELL WILL STEADILY LOWER, WHILE GRADUALLY SHIFTING
OUT OF THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST SATURDAY FOR MAALAEA BAY-
PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG
ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.
DISCUSSION...FARRIS
AVIATION...ALMANZA/FARRIS
MARINE...GIBBS
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