625
FXHW60 PHFO 091301
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
301 AM HST FRI MAY 9 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS WILL KEEP BREEZY TRADE WINDS IN
PLACE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL FAVOR
WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS, PARTICULARLY AT NIGHT AND DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. A FEW SHOWERS WILL OCCASIONALLY REACH
LEEWARD COMMUNITIES DUE TO THE STRENGTH OF THE TRADES, AND SOME
LEEWARD SHOWER DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON ON THE BIG
ISLAND.
DISCUSSION
CURRENTLY AT THE SURFACE, A 1028 MB HIGH IS CENTERED AROUND 1050
MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF HONOLULU, AND IS DRIVING MODERATE TO
BREEZY TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN EARLY THIS MORNING.
CIRA PROXYVIS IMAGERY SHOWS PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH
OF THE STATE, WITH A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER MOVING INTO WINDWARD
SLOPES AND COASTS AS WELL AS LINGERING OVER PORTIONS OF LEEWARD
BIG ISLAND. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
MOVING INTO WINDWARD SLOPES AND COASTS, A FEW SHOWERS SPILLING
LEEWARD AT TIMES OVER THE SMALLER ISLANDS, AND SOME SHOWERS
HUGGING THE LEEWARD BIG ISLAND COAST. MAIN SHORT TERM FOCUS
REVOLVES AROUND RAIN CHANCES AND TRADE WINDS TRENDS.
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH-NORTHWEST OF THE STATE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AND
THEN NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, MAINTAINING BREEZY
TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN. THE TRADES MAY EASE SLIGHTLY
DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK AS A FRONT PASSES BY
TO THE NORTH OF THE STATE. FAIRLY TYPICAL TRADE WIND WEATHER WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH SHOWERS FAVORING
WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS, PARTICULARLY AT NIGHT AND DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. A FEW SHOWERS WILL OCCASIONALLY REACH LEEWARD
COMMUNITIES DUE TO THE STRENGTH OF THE TRADES, AND SOME LEEWARD
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON ON THE BIG ISLAND.
AVIATION
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH ALONG WITH A STABLE ATMOSPHERE WILL
ALLOW A BREEZY TRADE WIND PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. SHOWERS WILL PRIMARILY FOCUS OVER WINDWARD AND
MOUNTAIN AREAS ESPECIALLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS. PERIODS OF ENHANCED SHOWER ACTIVITY COULD LEAD TO
TEMPORARY MVFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES, HOWEVER VFR CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY PREVAIL.
AIRMET TANGO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MODERATE LOW-LEVEL TURBULENCE
OVER AND IMMEDIATELY SW THROUGH NW OF ALL ISLAND MOUNTAINS DUE TO
THE LOCALLY BREEZY TRADE WINDS. THIS AIRMET WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AIRMET SIERRA FOR MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION
IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR WINDWARD KAUAI WHERE A BAND OF
MOISTURE IS LINGERING OVER THE ISLAND GENERATING SOME MVFR
CONDITIONS.
MARINE
FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADES WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS A SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED NORTH OF THE ISLANDS. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL PERSIST EACH DAY FOR THE TYPICAL WINDIER
WATERS AND CHANNELS AROUND MAUI COUNTY, THE BIG ISLAND, AND KAUAI.
THE ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED TO MAUI COUNTY WINDWARD
WATERS AND THE KAIWI CHANNEL IN LATER PACKAGES OVER THE WEEKEND.
SURF ALONG SOUTH-FACING SHORES WILL TREND UP ABOVE AVERAGE THIS
WEEKEND AS A LONG-PERIOD SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SWELL ARRIVES.
FORERUNNERS WILL BEGIN FILLING IN LATER TODAY, WITH THE SURF
PEAKING LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS SWELL PEAKED ABOVE
GUIDANCE AT THE AMERICAN SAMOAN PACIOOS BUOY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY, WHICH WILL TRANSLATE TO A PEAK LOCALLY LATE SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY, LIKELY DRIVING SURF TO THE ADVISORY LEVEL. A GRADUAL
DOWNWARD TREND WILL FOLLOW EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SURF ALONG EAST-FACING SHORES WILL REMAIN ROUGH AND CHOPPY, WITH
HEIGHTS HOVERING AROUND AVERAGE EACH DAY.
SURF ALONG EXPOSED NORTH-FACING SHORES WILL REMAIN SMALL THROUGH
THE WEEKEND, WITH MAINLY BACKGROUND SHORT-PERIOD NORTH-NORTHEAST
ENERGY CONTINUING. A LONG-PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL ARRIVING LATE
SUNDAY WILL LEAD TO THE SURF PICKING BACK UP TO NEAR AVERAGE
LEVELS AS IT PEAKS MONDAY. EXPECT THIS TREND TO REMAIN STEADY
TUESDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK AS ANOTHER MEDIUM-PERIOD PULSE OUT OF THE
SAME DIRECTION ARRIVES TUESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT A DOWNWARD TREND
THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST SATURDAY FOR KAUAI NORTHWEST
WATERS-KAUAI LEEWARD WATERS-MAALAEA BAY-PAILOLO CHANNEL-
ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND
SOUTHEAST WATERS.
DISCUSSION...JELSEMA
AVIATION...ALMANZA
MARINE...GIBBS
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