825
FXHW60 PHFO 100121
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
321 PM HST FRI MAY 9 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS WILL MAINTAIN BREEZY EASTERLY
TRADE WINDS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL
FAVOR WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS, PARTICULARLY AT NIGHT AND DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS, WITH A FEW SHOWERS OCCASIONALLY SPILLING
INTO LEEWARD AREAS DUE TO THE STRENGTH OF THE TRADES. SOME SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT IS ALSO EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON OVER KONA SLOPES OF
THE BIG ISLAND.
DISCUSSION
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS CONTINUES TO PRODUCE BREEZY
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE STATE. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON, WITH THE
TYPICAL DISTRIBUTION OF CLOUDS OVER MOST WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS
AND THE KONA SLOPES OF THE BIG ISLAND. RADAR IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS EMBEDDED IN THE
TRADE WIND FLOW. KAUAI REMAINS AN EXCEPTION TO OUR NORMAL TRADE
WIND CONDITIONS, WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SCATTERED SHOWERS
MOVING ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON AS AN AREA OF ENHANCED
MOISTURE LINGERS UPSTREAM.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING EASTWARD TONIGHT
THEN NORTHEASTWARD ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL MAINTAIN OUR BREEZY
TRADE WIND PATTERN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. TRADE MAY EASE
SLIGHTLY DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK AS A FRONT
PASSES NORTH OF THE STATE. OTHERWISE, EXPECT FAIRLY TYPICAL TRADE
WIND WEATHER WITH CLOUDS AND SHOWERS FAVORING WINDWARD AND MAUKA
AREAS, PARTICULARLY AT NIGHT AND DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
DUE TO THE BREEZY TRADES A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS WILL OCCASIONALLY
SPILL OVER INTO LEEWARD AREAS. WILL ALSO SEE SOME AFTERNOON SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE KONA SLOPES OF THE BIG ISLAND.
AVIATION
BREEZY TRADES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. LOW
CIGS AND SHRA SHOULD BE FOCUSED OVER WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS WITH
LIMITED SPILLOVER TO LEEWARD AREAS. MVFR CONDS EXPECTED IN
HEAVIER SHRA, OTHERWISE VFR PREVAILS.
AIRMET TANGO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MOD LOW-LEVEL TURB OVER ALL
ISLANDS. THIS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS DUE
TO THE BREEZY TRADES.
MARINE
FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADES WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS A SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED NORTH OF THE ISLANDS. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE TYPICAL WINDIER
WATERS AND CHANNELS AROUND MAUI COUNTY, THE BIG ISLAND, AND KAUAI.
THE ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED TO MAUI COUNTY WINDWARD
WATERS AND THE KAIWI CHANNEL AS TRADES STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY DURING
OVER THE WEEKEND.
SURF ALONG SOUTH-FACING SHORES WILL TREND UP ABOVE AVERAGE THIS
WEEKEND AS A LONG PERIOD SSW SWELL ARRIVES. FORERUNNERS WILL
BEGIN FILLING IN THIS EVENING WITH SURF PEAKING LATE SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS SWELL PEAKED ABOVE GUIDANCE AT THE AMERICAN
SAMOAN PACIOOS BUOY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, WHICH WILL
TRANSLATE TO A PEAK LOCALLY LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, LIKELY
DRIVING SURF TO THE ADVISORY THRESHOLD. A GRADUAL DOWNWARD WILL
FOLLOW EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SURF ALONG EAST-FACING SHORES WILL REMAIN ROUGH AND CHOPPY WITH
HEIGHTS HOVERING AROUND AVERAGE EACH DAY.
SURF ALONG EXPOSED NORTH-FACING SHORES WILL REMAIN SMALL THROUGH
THE WEEKEND, WITH MAINLY BACKGROUND SHORT PERIOD NNE ENERGY
CONTINUING. A LONG PERIOD NW SWELL ARRIVING LATE SUNDAY WILL LEAD
TO THE SURF PICKING BACK UP TO NEAR AVERAGE LEVELS AS IT PEAKS
MONDAY. EXPECT THIS TREND TO REMAIN STEADY TUESDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK
AS ANOTHER MEDIUM-PERIOD PULSE OUT OF THE SAME DIRECTION ARRIVES
TUESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT A DOWNWARD TREND THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF
NEXT WEEK.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST SATURDAY FOR KAUAI NORTHWEST
WATERS-KAUAI LEEWARD WATERS-MAALAEA BAY-PAILOLO CHANNEL-
ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND
SOUTHEAST WATERS.
DISCUSSION...AHUE
AVIATION...WALSH
MARINE...JVC
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