394
FXHW60 PHFO 101314
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
314 AM HST SAT MAY 10 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS WILL MAINTAIN BREEZY EASTERLY
TRADE WINDS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL
FAVOR WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS, PARTICULARLY AT NIGHT AND DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS, WITH A FEW SHOWERS OCCASIONALLY SPILLING
INTO LEEWARD COMMUNITIES DUE TO THE STRENGTH OF THE TRADES. SOME
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT IS ALSO EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON OVER KONA
SLOPES OF THE BIG ISLAND. A DISTURBANCE ALOFT COULD BRING AN
INCREASE IN SHOWER COVERAGE AND INTENSITY LATE NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
CURRENTLY AT THE SURFACE, A 1029 MB HIGH IS CENTERED AROUND 950
MILES NORTH OF HONOLULU, AND IS DRIVING MODERATE TO BREEZY TRADE
WINDS ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN EARLY THIS MORNING. CIRA PROXYVIS
IMAGERY SHOWS PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE,
WITH A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER AFFECTING SOME WINDWARD AND MAUKA
AREAS, AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF LEEWARD BIG ISLAND. RADAR IMAGERY
SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING INTO WINDWARD SLOPES AND COASTS,
WITH A FEW SHOWERS SPILLING LEEWARD AT TIMES OVER THE SMALLER
ISLANDS AND AFFECTING THE LEEWARD SLOPES SOUTH OF KONA ON THE BIG
ISLAND. MAIN SHORT TERM FOCUS REVOLVES AROUND RAIN CHANCES AND
TRADE WINDS TRENDS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TO THE NORTH OF THE STATE
TODAY, THEN STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD AND FURTHER AWAY
FROM THE ISLANDS TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
MAINTAIN BREEZY TRADES ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN. THE TRADES MAY
EASE SLIGHTLY DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK AS A
COUPLE OF FRONTS PASS BY TO THE NORTH OF THE STATE. FAIRLY TYPICAL
TRADE WIND WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD, WITH SHOWERS FAVORING WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS,
PARTICULARLY AT NIGHT AND DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. A FEW
SHOWERS WILL OCCASIONALLY REACH LEEWARD COMMUNITIES DUE TO THE
STRENGTH OF THE TRADES, AND SOME LEEWARD SHOWER DEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON ON THE BIG ISLAND. A DISTURBANCE ALOFT
COULD INCREASE SHOWER COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ACROSS THE ISLANDS
LATE NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
BREEZY TRADES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. LOW
CIGS AND SHRA SHOULD BE FOCUSED OVER WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS WITH
LIMITED SPILLOVER TO LEEWARD AREAS. MVFR CONDS EXPECTED IN
HEAVIER SHRA, OTHERWISE VFR PREVAILS.
AIRMET TANGO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MOD LOW-LEVEL TURB OVER ALL
ISLANDS. THIS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS DUE
TO THE BREEZY TRADES.
MARINE
A SURFACE RIDGE NORTH OF THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO BRING FRESH
TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY, NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON, HAS BEEN
EXPANDED TO INCLUDE MOST HAWAIIAN WATERS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
WINDWARD KAUAI AND WINDWARD BIG ISLAND. THE ADVISORY WILL LIKELY
NEED TO BE EXTENDED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THESE FRESH TO
STRONG TRADES PERSIST.
SURF ALONG SOUTH-FACING SHORES WILL TREND UP TODAY AS A NEW, LONG
PERIOD, SOUTH SOUTHWEST SWELL BUILDS. SMALL FORERUNNERS HAVE
ALREADY BEGUN TO SHOW UP AT THE NEAR SHORE BUOYS WITH A 17 SECOND
PERIOD. THIS SWELL IS PROGGED TO FILL IN THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS, PEAK THIS EVENING INTO SUNDAY, THEN SLOWLY DECREASE INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. SURF HEIGHTS MAY APPROACH LOW END ADVISORY
CRITERIA DURING THE PEAK OF THE EVENT.
SURF ALONG EAST-FACING SHORES WILL REMAIN ROUGH AND CHOPPY DUE TO
THE PERSISTENT TRADE WINDS.
SURF ALONG EXPOSED NORTH-FACING SHORES WILL REMAIN SMALL TODAY
WITH MAINLY SHORTER PERIOD NORTH SWELL. A MIX OF SMALL NORTH AND
NORTHWEST SWELL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF FORECAST PERIOD WILL
MAINTAIN SMALL SURF ALONG NORTH-FACING SHORES.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST SUNDAY FOR KAUAI NORTHWEST
WATERS-KAUAI LEEWARD WATERS-KAUAI CHANNEL-OAHU WINDWARD WATERS-
OAHU LEEWARD WATERS-KAIWI CHANNEL-MAUI COUNTY WINDWARD WATERS-
MAUI COUNTY LEEWARD WATERS-MAALAEA BAY-PAILOLO CHANNEL-
ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND
SOUTHEAST WATERS.
DISCUSSION...JELSEMA
AVIATION...ALMANZA
MARINE...THOMAS
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