094  
FGUS71 KCLE 101807  
ESFCLE  
OHC005-007-033-035-043-055-063-075-077-083-085-093-095-099-101-  
103-117-123-133-139-143-147-151-153-155-169-173-175-PAC039-049-  
121815-  
 
WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH  
107 PM EST THU JAN 10 2019  
   
..BELOW NORMAL FLOOD RISK THROUGH THE END OF JANUARY
 
 
THIS IS THE FIRST FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK OF THE 2018 SEASON.  
FLOOD OUTLOOKS WILL BE ISSUED EVERY TWO WEEKS THROUGH EARLY  
SPRING TO SUMMARIZE BASIN CONDITIONS AND TO ASSESS THE POTENTIAL  
FOR FLOODING. THE OUTLOOKS ARE BASED ON CURRENT AND FORECAST  
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS. THIS INCLUDES SNOW COVER AND WATER  
EQUIVALENT, CREEK AND RIVER LEVELS AND THE AMOUNT OF ICE ON THEM,  
ALONG WITH THE EXPECTED CONDITIONS DURING THE NEXT TWO WEEKS.  
FLOODING COULD OCCUR WITH WATER LEVELS HAVING MINOR IMPACTS EVEN  
WITH A BELOW NORMAL OUTLOOK.  
   
..CURRENT CONDITIONS SUMMARY
 
 
AFTER A WARM START TO THE WINTER, TEMPERATURES RETURNED TO  
SEASONABLE NORMALS BY EARLY JANUARY AND WILL CONTINUE INTO LATE  
JANUARY. SNOWPACK WAS MINIMAL AT THE TIME OF THIS ISSUANCE WITH  
ONLY ADDITIONAL MINOR ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED IN THE FORECAST  
PERIOD. SOIL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FREEZE BY MID MONTH  
LOCKING IN ANY GROUND WATER. STREAMFLOWS ON AREA CREEKS AND RIVERS  
ARE BELOW NORMAL AND ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH  
THE END OF THE MONTH. ALL TOLD, THE FLOOD RISK FOR THE AREA IS  
BELOW NORMAL.  
 
   
..SNOWPACK
 
 
IN THE SNOWBELT (NE OH/NW PA) SNOW DEPTHS RANGED  
FROM 1 TO 4 INCHES IN NORTHEAST OHIO TO 5 TO 9 INCHES IN THE  
HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA. OVERALL THE STANDING  
SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT AT THE TIME OF THIS ISSUANCE RANGED FROM 0.1  
TO 0.5 INCHES IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE UPPER FRENCH CREEK  
BASIN, TO AROUND A TRACE TO 0.2 INCHES ELSEWHERE.  
 
OUTSIDE OF THE SNOWBELT ONLY LIGHT SNOW OF A TRACE TO 2 INCHES  
WERE REPORTED. SNOW WATER EQUIVALENCY OF THE SNOWPACK WAS ABOUT  
0-0.1 INCHES.  
   
..GROUND CONDITIONS
 
 
SOIL TEMPERATURES (2 INCHES BELOW TOP SOIL) WERE BELOW FREEZING  
IN THE SNOWBELT, HOWEVER 4 INCH DEPTH SOIL TEMPERATURES WERE  
ABOVE FREEZING. SOIL TEMPERATURES REMAINED ABOVE FREEZING AT THE  
2 AND 4 INCH DEPTHS OUTSIDE OF THE SNOWBELT. SOIL TEMPERATURES  
ARE PROJECTED TO FREEZE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS TEMPERATURES  
REMAIN BELOW FREEZING WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE TEENS AT  
NIGHT.  
 
STREAMFLOWS ARE LOW WITH MOST REPORTING BELOW THE 50TH  
PERCENTILE. RESERVOIRS ARE AT NEAR NORMAL WINTER POOL LEVELS.  
THERE REMAINS A HIGH PERCENTAGE OF FLOOD STORAGE AVAILABLE.  
   
..TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK
 
 
THE RAINFALL OVER THE LAST 30 DAYS HAS BEEN NEAR NORMAL FOR  
DECEMBER WITH TEMPERATURES 5F ABOVE NORMAL. THE 7 DAY FORECAST  
CALLS FOR NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND  
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION WHICH WILL FALL ENTIRELY AS SNOW.  
TEMPERATURE OUTLOOKS FOR THE REST OF JANUARY FAVOR NEAR NORMAL  
TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION. LONG TERM OUTLOOKS  
FOR THE REST OF THE WINTER/SPRING SEASON FAVORS BELOW NORMAL  
PRECIPITATION AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.  
 
   
..FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
 
 
FLOOD RISK DURING THE NEXT TWO WEEKS IS BELOW NORMAL FOR REGION.  
THE PATTERN FAVORS LITTLE TO NO OPPORTUNITIES FOR LIQUID RUNOFF  
IN THE FORM OF RAIN AND/OR SNOWMELT. CURRENT RIVER LEVELS ARE  
NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL AND WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVER  
THE NEXT WEEK. CONDITIONS OVERALL FAVOR A BELOW NORMAL CHANCE FOR  
FLOODING THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF FEBRUARY.  
 
   
..ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
 
 
REAL TIME RIVER INFORMATION AND PROBABILISTIC FORECAST FOR SPECIFIC  
LOCATIONS ALONG RIVERS ACROSS THE REGION CAN BE FOUND ON THE  
INTERNET AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/CLE. SINCE CONDITIONS CAN CHANGE,  
PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST FLOOD WATCHES, WARNINGS, AND STATEMENTS  
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.  
 

 
 
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