131
FGUS76 KMFR 222123
ESFMFR
CAC093-ORC011-015-019-029-033-240000-
HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
123 PM PST SUN FEB 22 2026
...HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE IN COOS, CURRY, DOUGLAS, JACKSON, AND
JOSEPHINE COUNTIES IN OREGON, AND SISKIYOU COUNTY IN CALIFORNIA
MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY...
A WARM SOURCED ATMOSPHERIC RIVER, COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS A
PINEAPPLE EXPRESS, WILL LIKELY BRING PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY. CURRENT RAINFALL
FORECASTS SHOW WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ALONG THE COAST
WITH LOCALLY UP TO 6 INCHES IN THE FAVORED COAST RANGES OF CURRY
COUNTY. UP TO AN INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED FOR MANY OF THE INLAND
WEST SIDE VALLEYS, WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES ALONG THE CASCADES AND
MOUNTAINS AND SOUTH SLOPES OF SISKIYOU COUNTY, AND BETWEEN A QUARTER
OF AN INCH AND AN INCH ACROSS THE EAST SIDE.
COMPOUNDING THE HYDROLOGICAL CONCERNS, THE WARM RAIN IS EXPECTED
WITH SNOW LEVELS WELL ABOVE 7000 FEET, WHICH WILL RESULT IN SNOWMELT
AND THEREFORE HIGHER THAN EXPECTED RUNOFF IN AREA WATERSHEDS.
SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS ARE LIKELY TO RISE RAPIDLY DURING THIS
EVENT WITH NUISANCE FLOODING AND PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS DURING
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN. SIGNIFICANT RISES ON MAIN STEM RIVERS AND
FLASHIER CREEKS ARE ALSO EXPECTED. GIVEN THAT RIVERS ARE STILL
RUNNING FAIRLY LOW FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, RIVER FLOODING POTENTIAL
IS A BIT LOWER THAN USUAL, BUT THERE IS AT LEAST A LOW PROBABILITY
OF SOME FLOODING, ESPECIALLY IN THE COQUILLE BASIN, AND ALONG THE
MORE FLASHIER STREAMS SUCH AS DEER CREEK IN ROSEBURG AND LITTLE
BUTTE CREEK IN EAGLE POINT.
WHILE THE EXACT SCENARIO FOR THE HEAVY RAINFALL AND POTENTIAL
FLOODING REMAINS UNCERTAIN, WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
FORECASTS AND UPDATE ACCORDINGLY. FLOOD WATCHES MAY BE ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IF THIS SITUATION WORSENS.
BPN
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