697
FNUS76 KMFR 180545
FWSMFR
SPOT FORECAST FOR THOMAS CREEK ROADSIDE PILES...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
945 PM PST WED DEC 17 2025
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0700 PST ON DECEMBER 18.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THURSDAY TO 4 PM PST
FRIDAY...
DISCUSSION
A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING.
LIGHT PRECIP AROUND IN THE EARLY MORNING SHOULD TAPER OFF OR EVEN END FOR
A WHILE. IT WILL TURN EXTREMELY WINDY (S-SW) WITH PARTIAL SUN IN THE AFTERNOON.
STILL SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AROUND, BUT SNOW LEVELS WILL BE VERY HIGH. WIND
GUSTS COULD PEAK AT 65-75 MPH! THE FRONT MOVES BACK SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY WITH STRONG WINDS AND A PERIOD OF WETTING RAINFALL/THAT COULD BE MIXED
WITH SNOW. PRECIP AMOUNTS PROBABLY 0.50-0.75" WITH AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW.
SNOW LEVELS DROP AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT, BUT PRECIP WILL BE ENDING. COULD BE A
FRESH DUSTING. PRECIP TAPERS OFF/ENDS ON SATURDAY, BUT THERE COULD BE MORE
RAIN/SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
THURSDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY WITH A 70% CHANCE OF RAIN EARLY, THEN
BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY WITH A 30% CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS. VERY WINDY. RAIN AMOUNT: TRACE-0.05".
SNOW LEVEL RISING ABOVE 8000 FEET.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....39-42.
MIN HUMIDITY........70-80 PERCENT.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....WINDY. SW 15-25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH.
WIND (20 FT)........VERY WINDY. SW 30-35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 65 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SW 35-50 MPH.
CWR.................30 PERCENT DECREASING TO 10 PERCENT IN THE
AFTERNOON.
THURSDAY NIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A 20% CHANCE OF RAIN EARLY IN
THE EVENING, THEN CLOUDY WITH A NEAR 100% CHANCE OF
RAIN/SNOW LATE. VERY WINDY. SNOW LEVEL LOWERING AND
HOVERING NEAR THE BURN ELEVATION. SNOW AMOUNT:
DUSTING TO AN INCH.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....33-36.
MAX HUMIDITY........NEAR 100 PERCENT.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....WINDY. SW 15-25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH.
WIND (20 FT)........VERY WINDY. SW 30-40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 75 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SW 40-60 MPH.
CWR.................20 PERCENT INCREASING TO 90 PERCENT.
FRIDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). NEAR 100% CHANCE OF RAIN
AND SNOW. PRECIP AMOUNT: 0.30-0.60". SNOW LEVEL
HOVERING NEAR THE BURN ELEVATION. SNOW AMOUNT:
1-2" ABOVE 6500 FEET.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....TEMPERATURES STEADY IN THE LOW TO MID 30S.
MIN HUMIDITY........85-90 PERCENT.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....WINDY. SW 15-25 WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH IN THE MORNING,
EASING TO 10-20 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
WIND (20 FT)........WINDY. SW 25-35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 65 MPH IN THE MORNING,
EASING TO 15-25 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SW 35-55, EASING TO 25-35 MPH.
CWR.................100 PERCENT.
FORECASTER...SPILDE
REQUESTED BY...ANDREW TAYLOR
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2527513.3/MFR
.DELDT 12/18/25
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
.EMAIL ANDREW.TAYLOR2@USDA.GOV
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