118
FXUS65 KBOI 162150
AFDBOI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
250 PM MST SUN NOV 16 2025
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
HEAVIER RAIN
SHOWERS ARE PICKING UP ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON, WITH SOME
LOWER VISIBILITIES ACCOMPANYING THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION NEAR
BURNS, OR. TEMPERATURES ARE ABOUT 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGHOUT THE REGION, AND WILL STEADILY DROP TO THE LOW TO MID
50S (STILL ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL) THROUGH TUESDAY. THE
CUT OFF LOW THAT IS PUSHING WIDESPREAD RAIN INTO THE AREA WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH MONDAY EVENING, KEEPING US
IN A STEADY STREAM OF MOISTURE AS ANOTHER STRONGER CUT OFF LOW
MOVES INLAND TO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL KEEP THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ELEVATED WITH WARM
TEMPERATURES KEEPING SNOW LEVELS HIGH (ABOVE 7000-8000 FEET)
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. WE CAN EXPECT ANYWHERE FROM 0.10-0.25
INCHES OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS, WITH HIGH
TERRAIN SEEING UP TO 0.75 INCHES BY MONDAY EVENING. WE WILL BE
IN BETWEEN TWO SYSTEMS TO OUR NORTH AND SOUTH, WHICH WILL KEEP
TUESDAY MOSTLY DRY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW HIGH TERRAIN
SHOWERS.
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE IN THE EXTENDED, BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS REMAINS LOW.
A WEAK TROUGH WILL EXIT OUR AREA ON WEDNESDAY AS A RIDGE BRIEFLY
BUILDS OVERHEAD. THIS WILL BRING DRIER CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES
ONLY A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. FORECAST CONFIDENCE
DECREASES STARTING THURSDAY AS ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
WEST. MOST ENSEMBLES SPLIT THE TROUGH AS IT MOVES INLAND AND
DEVELOP ANOTHER CUTOFF LOW THAT DIVES TO OUR SOUTH, RESULTING IN
WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS, BUT SOME KEEP THE TROUGH MORE
CONSOLIDATED RESULTING IN COOLER AND WETTER CONDITIONS. THE
UNCERTAINTY RESULTS IN A 20-40% CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON THURSDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL.
SNOW LEVELS OF 5000-6500 FEET WILL LIMIT ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
TO HIGHER PEAKS.
UNCERTAINTY CARRIES FORWARD FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS A RIDGE
REBUILDS ACROSS THE WEST BEHIND THE TROUGH. HOWEVER, MOISTURE
(POTENTIALLY AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER) LOOKS TO MOVE OVER TOP OF THE
RIDGE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE
ENSEMBLES ON THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE AND AMOUNT OF MOISTURE, BUT
THE NET RESULT IS AROUND A 20-50% CHANCE OF RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION
SNOW EACH DAY, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.
SNOW LEVELS LOOK TO REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH AT AROUND 4500-6500 FEET.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WITHIN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL, BUT AVERAGING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AVIATION
WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS SOUTHEAST OR THIS AFTERNOON, WITH
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHWEST ID. SHOWERS INCREASING
ACROSS SOUTHWEST ID TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING, DECREASING MONDAY
AFTERNOON. MOUNTAINS BECOMING OBSCURED. MAINLY VFR ACROSS ID THIS
AFTERNOON WITH MVFR TO LOCAL IFR IN EASTERN OR, SPREADING OVER ID
TONIGHT. SNOW LEVEL 8-10KFT MSL THIS AFTERNOON, DECREASING TO 7-8KFT
MSL TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. SURFACE WINDS: SW-SE 5-15 KT, GUSTS 20-30
KT NEAR THE NV BORDER. WINDS ALOFT AT 10KFT MSL: SW-W 10-25 KT.
KBOI...MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE EVENING WITH INTERMITTENT SHOWERS.
BRIEF REDUCTIONS TO MVFR VISIBILITY POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER SHOWERS.
LOWERING CEILINGS WITH MVFR IN RAIN MONDAY MORNING, IMPROVING BY
EARLY AFTERNOON. SURFACE WINDS SE 5-10 KT.
BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBOISE
WWW.X.COM/NWSBOISE
SHORT TERM...SA
LONG TERM....ST
AVIATION.....ST
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