881
FXUS65 KBOI 011617
AFDBOI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
917 AM MST SUN MAR 1 2026
DISCUSSION
UPDATED LOWER POP TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING
TO BETTER ALIGN WITH LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY, AND
QPF. ADDED A SLIGHT (10-15%) CHANCE OF AFTERNOON/ EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHERN HARNEY AND MALHEUR COUNTIES, SIMILAR
TO LATEST SPC FORECAST. THE MAIN PCPN (RAIN BELOW 7000 FEET)
WILL FALL TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AS A PACIFIC UPPER LOW
COMES INLAND ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA. AFTER SUNNY,
MILD WX TUESDAY, A COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL BEGIN A
CHANGE TO SHOWERY, COLDER WX WITH RAPIDLY LOWERING SNOW LEVEL.
AVIATION
SHOWERS INCREASE FROM THE S TO N TODAY. MODERATE
PRECIP RATES POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON COINCIDE WITH A 10% CHANCE
OF LIGHTNING IN SE OR AND NEAR THE ID/NV BORDER. WITH SNOW
LEVELS AT 7-8 KFT MSL, SURFACE PRECIP AT TAF SITES WILL BE
RAIN. CEILINGS TREND TOWARDS MVFR THIS EVENING, AND TONIGHT
THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING MAY DROP TO IFR. SURFACE WINDS:
VARIABLE UP TO 12 KT, LOCALIZED GUSTS UP TO 20 KT NEAR STRONG
SHOWERS. WINDS ALOFT AT 10 KFT MSL: SW 5-20 KT.
KBOI...LOW VFR AND OVERCAST, AS LIGHT RAIN PICKS UP THIS AFTERNOON
AND REMAINS THROUGH TOMORROW CEILINGS DROP TO MVFR. BRIEF MODERATE
RAINFALL POSSIBLE IN STRONGER SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS REMAIN
LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
PREV DISCUSSION
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...A WEAK SYSTEM OFF THE
CA COAST WILL SLOWLY TRACK INLAND WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS (30-50%
CHANCE) THIS AFTERNOON AND A 10-15% CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS EASTERN OR. SNOW LEVELS RANGE FROM 7000-8500FT WITH THIS
SYSTEM. MINIMAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOON HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS UP TO 30-40 MPH.
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SYSTEM
SLOWLY TRACKS ACROSS NV/UT AND INTO WY. CONDITIONS DRY OUT BY
MONDAY NIGHT. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING RETURNS ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF
THE NEXT SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST OF THE
PERIOD, WITH LOW TO MID 60S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SNAKE BASIN, OR
AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. SURFACE WINDS SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND BECOME BREEZY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH.
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED COME WEDNESDAY, AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSSES OUR AREA FROM WEST TO EAST. SNOW
LEVELS WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL START OUT AT 5.5-6.5 KFT MSL,
BEFORE LOWERING TO 3.5-4.5 KFT FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN
THURSDAY AND BEYOND, WITH OROGRAPHIC LIFT BEING THE MAIN DRIVER
IN THE MOIST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN OVER
THE NORTH PACIFIC AND INTO OUR AREA WILL SUPPORT A WARMING
TREND BEYOND THURSDAY. UNCERTAINTY IN REGARD TO PRECIPITATION
CHANCES INCREASE NEXT WEEKEND. AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
BUILD IN THE PACIFIC, AND A LOW CLOSES OFF NEAR THE BAJA
PENINSULA, THE QUESTION BECOMES WHERE OUR AREA WILL BE SITUATED
IN RELATION TO THE LOW AND THE JET STREAM ALOFT. LATEST
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE IS FAVORING THE RIDGE EXTENDING EAST OVER
OUR AREA, KEEPING THE MAIN STORM TRACK NORTH. PRECIPITATION
TRENDS IN ENSEMBLES ARE BEGINNING TO REFLECT THIS, WITH THE GFS
ENSEMBLE BACKING OFF ON PRECIP (OUTSIDE OF THE WEST CENTRAL
IDAHO MOUNTAINS) OVER THE LAST TWO RUNS. THE EURO ENSEMBLE IS
STILL HOLDING ON, BUT IN THE LATEST RUN IS TRENDING DOWNWARD IN
REGARD TO QPF. FOR NOW, AM MAINTAINING ELEVATED PRECIPITATION
CHANCES AREA-WIDE COME SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBOISE
WWW.X.COM/NWSBOISE
DISCUSSION...LC
AVIATION.....JM
SHORT TERM...KA
LONG TERM....NF
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