318
FXUS65 KBOI 110926
AFDBOI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
226 AM MST WED FEB 11 2026
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
AS OF 2 AM MST, WATER
VAPORY IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW HAS MOVED ONSHORE IN
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA, SLINGING MOISTURE NORTH TO OUR AREA.
SHOWERS HAVE MOVED SOUTH-TO-NORTH SINCE MIDNIGHT, AND WILL
CONTINUE TO DO SO UNTIL THIS EVENING. AFTER SUNSET WEDNESDAY,
SHOWER COVERAGE WILL BECOME MORE SCARCE, WITH ISOLATED SHOWER
CHANCES. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE AROUND 3000-5000 FEET MSL AS
PRECIPITATION COMES IN. ON THURSDAY, THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL
LINGER OVER THE CA/NV BORDER AS ANOTHER TROUGH ROUNDS ITS BASE.
FOG CONCERNS THURSDAY MORNING ARE OF MEDIUM CONFIDENCE, WITH THE
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FROM THE SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY PLAYING AN
IMPORTANT ROLE ON PROVIDING MOISTURE AT THE SURFACE. PARTIAL
CLEARING IS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY WITH ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND
COOL AIR ALOFT FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. FRIDAY WILL BE
DRY, WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDING IN. SHOWER
CHANCES BUILD IN AGAIN IN EASTERN OREGON AND CENTRAL IDAHO LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM MOVES IN.
LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
THERE IS STRONG CONSENSUS
AMONGST BOTH THE DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODEL DATA THAT THE
ACTIVE WEATHER PERIOD WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MID AND LONG RANGE
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. GUIDANCE IS ZEROING IN ON A SYSTEM IMPACTING
THE REGION DURING THE WEEKEND AND A STRONGER SYSTEM FOLLOWING ON ITS
HEELS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. BOTH SYSTEMS ARE CHARACTERIZED BY AN
INTRUSION OF COLD AIR ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE, WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR SIGNIFICANT MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL. THE EARLY WEEK SYSTEM SHOWS
INDICATIONS THAT SNOW-LEVELS MAY APPROACH VALLEY FLOORS, THOUGH IT
IS A BIT EARLY TO MAKE THAT CALL WITH CONFIDENCE.
AVIATION
GENERALLY VFR WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS AS PRECIPITATION WORKS ITS WAY SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE DAY. MOUNTAINS WILL BE OBSCURED AT TIMES.
SURFACE WINDS FAVORING ESE 10-20 KT WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES ACROSS
THE MAGIC VALLEY OF IDAHO. WINDS ALOFT AT 10 KFT MSL: SW 10-20
KT.
KBOI...GENERALLY VFR WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR POSSIBLE DURING
RAIN SHOWERS 12-17Z. SURFACE WINDS: SE LESS THAN 10 KT.
BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBOISE
WWW.X.COM/NWSBOISE
SHORT TERM...CH
LONG TERM....MC
AVIATION.....MC
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