517
FXUS65 KBOI 290423
AFDBOI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
923 PM MST WED JAN 28 2026
DISCUSSION
FOR THE REST TONIGHT, WILL SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP IN
VALLEYS AS INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS KEEP IT FROM BECOMING
WIDESPREAD. THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH IS PUSHING INTO THE PAC NW
BUT WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE. THERE
WERE A FEW 18Z SOLUTIONS THAT PUT LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS ALONG THE ID/OR BORDER THURSDAY MORNING, HOWEVER THE
00Z GUIDANCE LOOKS TO BE BACKING OFF OF THIS POTENTIAL WHICH
MATCHES UP WELL WITH THE AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE. THE BEST
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW WILL BE ACROSS E-CENTRAL OREGON AND THE
W-CENTRAL IDAHO MTNS ON THURSDAY WHERE ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO AN
INCH ARE POSSIBLE. CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK SO NO UPDATES.
AVIATION
AREAS MVFR AND LOCAL IFR IN VALLEY FOG/STRATUS
OVERNIGHT. LOCAL IFR IN SNOW DEVELOPING AFTER 12Z THURSDAY IN
MTNS OF SE OREGON NORTH OF KBNO-KONO, AND ACROSS THE W-CENTRAL
ID MTNS AFTER 14Z. MOUNTAINS WILL REMAIN OBSCURED THROUGH THE
DAY. SURFACE WINDS: VARIABLE UP TO 10 KT. WINDS ALOFT AT 10KFT
MSL: W-NW 15-25 KT.
KBOI...VFR-MVFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT IN FOG/MIST, WITH A <10%
CHANCE OF IFR AT THE AIRPORT. THE CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS
THURSDAY MORNING HAS DECREASED AND ANY LIGHT ACTIVITY WILL
REMAIN IN THE FOOTHILLS TO THE NORTH. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY.
PREV DISCUSSION
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...THIS MORNING'S LIGHT
SNOW WAS MELTING IN THE VALLEYS THIS AFTERNOON AND MOISTENING THE
LOWER ATMOSPHERIC LAYERS. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO MORE FOG IN THE
VALLEYS TONIGHT THAN FORECAST BY NBM, ALTHOUGH INCREASING HIGHER
CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT SHOULD LIMIT FURTHER FOG DEVELOPMENT. A WEAK
PACIFIC UPPER TROUGH WILL COME INLAND THROUGH THE MAIN RIDGE LATE
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS FOR
THE NORTHERN THIRD OF OUR CWA (TOTAL SNOWFALL LESS THAN ONE
INCH). AFTER THAT, THE MAIN UPPER RIDGE WILL RE-AMPLIFY, MAKING
THE INVERSION IN THE VALLEYS STRONGER THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND. LITTLE DAY-TO-DAY CHANGE IN TEMPERATURE
IN THE VALLEYS, BUT HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES
WARMER FRIDAY.
LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...DRY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE WEEKEND, WITH HIGH PRESSURE STAYING IN PLACE
OVER THE REGION UNTIL MONDAY. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN NEAR
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL, WITH COLD POOLS FROM INVERSIONS
POTENTIALLY ALLOWING COLDER THAN FORECAST TEMPERATURES IN AREA
VALLEYS. THESE INVERSIONS WILL ALSO LEAD TO PATCHY VALLEY FOG
AND LOW STRATUS OVERNIGHT THANKS TO RECENT PRECIPITATION.
BY LATE MONDAY, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION,
BRINGING LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA WITH SLIGHTLY ELEVATED
WINDS. CURRENT FORECASTS HIGHLIGHT THE NORTHERN REACHES OF OUR
CWA (BAKER COUNTY-WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS) FOR THE BEST CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION, AROUND A 20-40% CHANCE. SNOW LEVELS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 4000-5000 FOOT MSL RANGE, ALTHOUGH COLD
POOLS LINGERING IN SHELTERED VALLEYS COULD SEE SNOW LEVELS DIP
DOWN TO THE VALLEY FLOORS. CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH IN THIS
QUICK-HITTING SYSTEM PASSING THROUGH THE AREA, BUT THERE REMAINS
SIGNIFICANT VARIATION IN THE EXTENT OF PRECIPITATION TO THE
SOUTH. AFTER THIS TROUGH MOVES EAST ON TUESDAY, THE PERSISTENT
RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK IN FOR WEDNESDAY, BRINGING A RETURN TO DRY
CONDITIONS.
BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBOISE
WWW.X.COM/NWSBOISE
DISCUSSION...DG
AVIATION.....DG
SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM....SA
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