575
FXUS65 KBOI 161031
AFDBOI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
331 AM MST MON FEB 16 2026
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ONE MORE DAY OF
MILD WEATHER IS IN STORE TODAY BEFORE A MUCH MORE WINTER-LIKE
PATTERN RETURNS. OUR AREA WILL BE IN SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A
COLD AND DEEP UPPER LOW MOVING SOUTH OFF THE COAST OF BRITISH
COLUMBIA AND A TROUGH OFF THE COAST OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR OR SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN YESTERDAY
ACROSS SOUTHWEST IDAHO, AROUND 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, BUT A
FEW DEGREES COOLER ACROSS SOUTHEAST OREGON AS THE LOW
APPROACHES. BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
LOW WITH GUSTS 20-35 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. MOISTURE INCREASING IN
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW TO SOUTHEAST
OREGON AND THE SOUTHWEST IDAHO MOUNTAINS, WITH SNOW LEVELS
5-6KFT MSL.
TONIGHT, THE TROUGH OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL RAPIDLY LIFT
NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR AREA. THIS WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH,
STRENGTHENING AS IT MOVES INTO SOUTHWEST IDAHO. WIDESPREAD RAIN
AND SNOW WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING, WITH THE
HIGHEST TOTALS ACROSS THE CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS. SNOW LEVELS
WILL FALL TO VALLEY FLOORS BEHIND THE FRONT, ALLOWING A
RAIN/SNOW MIX TO QUICKLY CHANGE TO ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE
MOUNTAINS. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 2-6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN THE
BOISE/WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS, EXCEPT 6-12 INCHES ABOVE 6000
FEET. THE SOUTHWEST HIGHLANDS/OWYHEES AND SOUTHERN MALHEUR
COUNTY WILL ALSO SEE A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW ALONG WITH GUSTY
WINDS TO AROUND 35 MPH. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN
ISSUED FOR THESE AREAS. LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL SEE MOSTLY RAIN
BEFORE MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO SNOW BEFORE PRECIPITATION
TAPERS OFF. LITTLE SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED DUE TO THE
SHORT DURATION OF SNOWFALL. HOWEVER, THERE IS AROUND A 30-50%
CHANCE OF A DUSTING OF SNOW IN THE TREASURE/MAGIC VALLEYS.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 0.10-0.25" ARE EXPECTED IN MOST LOWER
VALLEYS TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10-15 DEGREES COOLER ON TUESDAY. WINDS
WILL BE GUSTY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND NEAR THE
NEVADA BORDER WHERE GUSTS 30-45 MPH WILL OCCUR. SCATTERED
SNOW/GRAUPEL SHOWERS WILL REDEVELOP TUESDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO
DAYTIME HEATING AND COLD AIR ALOFT. COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS
WILL INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS THE COLD UPPER LOW
MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WITH SNOW LEVELS ON VALLEY
FLOORS, ANY PRECIPITATION COULD BRING LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
TO LOWER VALLEYS (40-70% CHANCE). IN THE MOUNTAINS, ANOTHER 3-6
INCHES OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE AROUND 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL, AND WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY.
LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
EXTEND ACROSS OUR AREA AS IT DIGS OUT EAST, KEEPING THE REGION
IN A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN AND SUSTAINING SNOWFALL OVER ALL
AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH FRIDAY, AND SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW VALLEY
FLOORS. ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS OR INTO NV ON FRIDAY, WITH A
REINFORCEMENT OF COLD AIR ALOFT, ENHANCING SNOW SHOWERS OVER
THE MOUNTAINS. VALLEYS WILL LIKELY SEE NO MORE THAN SOME DUSTING
OF SNOW FRIDAY. A RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA LATE FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY, BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND. LIGHT SNOWFALL (10-20% CHANCE FOR
VALLEYS AND 20-40% FOR MOUNTAINS) REMAINS POSSIBLE FOR
SATURDAY, DEPENDING ON THE MAGNITUDE OF MOISTURE STEERED BY A
POTENTIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN TO OUR SOUTH. A
STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEEPEN SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE GULF
OF ALASKA ALONG THE WEST COAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING STRONG
SOUTH- SOUTHWEST FLOW LATE SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY, WITH
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY OVER PRECIPITATION TIMING AND AMOUNTS.
THE STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY KEEP OUR AREA WARMER
THAN NORMAL.
AVIATION
MAINLY VFR, EXCEPT FOR LOW CLOUDS AND FOG NEAR KBKE
AND KMYL THROUGH EARLY MORNING TODAY. MID-TO-HIGH CLOUDS MOVING
IN FROM WEST-SOUTHWEST. A BAND OF RAIN-SNOW WILL MOVE INTO E'RN
OR BY LATE MORNING AND INTO SW ID THROUGH AFTERNOON. SURFACE
WINDS SE 5-10 KT IN SNAKE PLAIN AND VARIABLE UNDER 6 KT
ELSEWHERE, BECOMING SW-SE 10-15KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. WINDS ALOFT AT 10KFT MSL: SW 20-25KT.
KBOI...VFR. SURFACE WINDS SE 5 TO 10KT THIS MORNING, INCREASING
TO SE 10 TO 15KT WITH GUSTS 20 TO 25KT BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ID...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM MST
TUESDAY IDZ011-013-015-029.
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM MST /7 PM PST/ THIS EVENING
TO 8 AM MST /7 AM PST/ TUESDAY ORZ063.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBOISE
WWW.X.COM/NWSBOISE
SHORT TERM...ST
LONG TERM....JY
AVIATION.....JY
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