515
FXUS65 KBOI 061713
AFDBOI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
1013 AM MST THU NOV 6 2025
DISCUSSION
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT DAY
WITH A BRIEF BREAK IN PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON. NEXT
SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN EASTERN OR
AND THIS EVENING IN SOUTHWEST ID WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. SNOW
LEVELS WILL BE AROUND 6500-7500' WITH LIGHT AMOUNTS ON THE
HIGHEST PEAKS. THEN AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA
ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. A TEMPERATURE INVERSION IS LIKELY TO
DEVELOP NEXT WEEK WITH STAGNANT CONDITIONS IN THE VALLEYS AS A
RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD BY SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST
TO BE AROUND 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. NO UPDATES.
AVIATION
MOSTLY VFR. INCREASING CLOUD COVERAGE OVER ALL AREAS
THROUGH LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. SNOW LEVELS 6K-7K FEET MSL.
LINGERING PATCHY FOG/LOW STRATUS OVER MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING. PRECIP
RETURNING FROM W TO E THIS EVENING AFTER SUNSET. SURFACE WINDS: SW-
SE 5-15 KT, WITH AFTERNOON GUSTS TO 20-25 KT MAINLY IN E OREGON.
WINDS ALOFT AT 10KFT MSL: W TO SW 15-30 KT.
KBOI...VFR. MOSTLY DRY AND PARTLY CLOUDY WITH 5K-8K FT AGL CEILINGS.
RAIN RETURNS AROUND 07/04Z-06Z THROUGH FRI MORNING. SURFACE WINDS:
VARIABLE OR SE UP TO 10 KT THROUGH LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.
WEEKEND OUTLOOK...SCATTERED/NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND LOW CLOUDS WILL
CREATE MVFR-LIFR AND OBSCURATION IN THE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY AM. SNOW
LEVELS 4.5K-6.5K FEET MSL. BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE FOR VALLEYS DURING
PRECIP. IMPROVING CONDITIONS FRIDAY PM. SURFACE WINDS: NW-W 5-15 KT
WITH 20-25 KT GUSTS FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING, DECREASING BY SUNSET.
PATCHY FOG SAT/SUN MORNINGS, OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS. S-E 5-15 KT
SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH SAT/SUN.
PREV DISCUSSION
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS WILL
LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ID MTNS TODAY AS WESTERLY FLOW AND
WEAK WARM ADVECTION PRECEDE PASSAGE OF A SHORTWAVE RIDGE.
OTHERWISE MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR TODAY ACROSS
SE OREGON AND LOWER ELEVATIONS OF SW IDAHO. THE NEXT STORM TO
IMPACT THE AREA WILL SPREAD LIGHT PRECIPITATION INTO SE OREGON
EARLY THIS EVENING, EXPANDING INTO SW IDAHO OVERNIGHT AS THE
UPPER WAVE QUICKLY MOVES EAST. MODELS ARE ALIGNED IN SHOWING
WIDESPREAD 0.25-0.50" LIQUID AMOUNTS ACROSS MTNS IN THE REGION,
HOWEVER THERE IS A NOTABLE SPREAD IN THE RAINFALL TOTALS AT
LOWER ELEVATIONS, ESPECIALLY AMONG HIGH RES MODELS. THE CURRENT
ENSEMBLE BLEND (NBM) AND WPC FORECAST KEEP MOST LOWER ELEVATION
TOTALS UNDER 0.10", THOUGH WETTER SOLUTIONS (HRRR AND MPAS) ARE
PUSHING TOTALS OVER 0.25" IN THE SNAKE PLAIN THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. HAVE HELD THE FORECAST CLOSE TO THE NBM/WPC GUIDANCE
FOR THIS PACKAGE WHICH FITS WITH A NORTHWARD SHIFT IN BOTH THE
GLOBAL GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS. SNOW LEVELS HOLD BETWEEN 6-7KFT
MSL FOR THIS EVENT, SO MTN VALLEYS SEE RAIN WITH ACCUMULATING
WET SNOW AOA 6500 FEET WHERE 2-5" IS EXPECTED.
LOWER ELEVATIONS DRY OUT THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY WHILE MTNS SEE
DECREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS. FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL SEE DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA AS AN UPPER
RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER THE INTERIOR NW. RECENT RAINS ALONG WITH
STABLE CONDITIONS AND LIGHTER WINDS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO FOG
DEVELOPMENT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHTS, ESPECIALLY IN MTN
VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE
WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY, RESULTING IN
RELATIVELY MILD TEMPERATURES, DRY CONDITIONS, AND
EAST/SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS. THIS RIDGE IS FORECAST TO FLATTEN
MONDAY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH ATTEMPTS TO PASS THROUGH THE
NORTHWESTERN U.S. APART FROM CLOUD COVER, SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO
WILL EXPERIENCE LITTLE IMPACT WITH LESS THAN A 10% CHANCE OF
PRECIP FOR THE NORTHERN AREAS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BOTH DAYS, WITH TUESDAY
POTENTIALLY BEING THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK AS THE RIDGE
REBOUNDS. BEGINNING LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL DEVELOP ALOFT AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND A LARGE PACIFIC
LOW APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
INCREASE AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY (15-30%), AND MORE SO ON THURSDAY
(30-60%) AS MOISTURE SPREADS ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
LATEST MODEL RUNS STALL THE CENTER OF THIS LOW ALONG THE WEST
COAST, HOWEVER, WHILE THE PARENT TROUGH IN BC CANADA PASSES TO
THE NORTH. THERE IS DISAGREEMENT ON THE EXTENT OF THE MOISTURE
FROM THESE TWO FEATURES, AND HOW MUCH PRECIP WILL IMPACT THE
FORECAST AREA TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER, COOLER AND
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY.
BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBOISE
WWW.X.COM/NWSBOISE
DISCUSSION...KA
AVIATION.....JY
SHORT TERM...DG
LONG TERM....SH
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page