905
FXUS65 KBOI 120254
AFDBOI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
854 PM MDT FRI JUL 11 2025
DISCUSSION
HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO
THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. BUILDS
NORTHWARD. LATEST HI-RES MODELS HINT THAT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOP IN SOUTH-CENTRAL OREGON SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVE MAY BRIEFLY
ENTER SOUTHWESTERN HARNEY COUNTY. OTHERWISE, EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
TREND HOTTER EACH DAY THROUGH MONDAY, PEAKING AROUND 5-8 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. WILDFIRES IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND IN CENTRAL IDAHO
WILL GENERATE LIGHT SMOKE LAYERS ALOFT ACROSS SOUTHEAST OREGON AND
THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHWEST IDAHO OVER THE WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE,
SMOKE IS EXPECTED TO DRAIN INTO THE CANYONS IN THE VICINITY OF THE
FIRES IN CENTRAL IDAHO.
AVIATION
GENERALLY VFR. LOCALIZED SMOKE NEAR WILDFIRES IN CENTRAL
ID AND NEAR OR/NV BORDER. SURFACE WINDS: W-N 5-15 KT THIS EVENING,
BECOMING VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. WINDS ALOFT AT 10KFT MSL: NW 5-15 KT.
KBOI...VFR. SURFACE WINDS: NW 5-10 KT BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT, THEN RETURNING TO W-NW 8-12 KT WITH 15-20 KT GUSTS BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
SUNDAY OUTLOOK...GENERALLY VFR. LOCALIZED SMOKE NEAR WILDFIRES. HIGH
DENSITY ALTITUDE DUE TO HOT TEMPERATURES, ESPECIALLY SUNDAY/MONDAY.
SURFACE WINDS: NW 5-15 KT, WITH 15-25 KT AFTERNOON GUSTS.
PREV DISCUSSION
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...HOTTER NEXT FEW
DAYS AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN US
EXPANDS NORTHWARD. HIGH TEMPS SUNDAY WILL BE NEAR 100 DEGREES
IN THE TREASURE VALLEY, AND MONDAY EVEN SLIGHTLY HOTTER.
SUNDAY'S TEMPS ARE NOT QUITE HIGH ENOUGH FOR A HEAT ADVISORY,
BUT MONDAY WILL GET CLOSE. SKIES WILL STAY CLEAR AS THE UPPER
HIGH IN THE SOUTHWESTERN US WILL BLOCK MONSOON MOISTURE FROM
REACHING US. HOWEVER, WILDFIRES IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND
SOUTHERN OREGON WILL SPREAD PATCHY LOW-LEVEL SMOKE ACROSS
SOUTHERN HARNEY AND SOUTHERN MALHEUR COUNTIES THROUGH SATURDAY,
WHILE HIGHER-LEVEL SMOKE CREATES HAZE OVER A WIDER AREA OF
SOUTHEAST OREGON. ALSO, THE BIG BEAR FIRE NORTHEAST OF VALLEY
COUNTY, ID, AND ALSO THE RUSH FIRE, WILL SPREAD PATCHY SMOKE
SOUTHWARD INTO EASTERN ELMORE COUNTY TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. BUT
UNLESS THERE ARE NEW FIRE STARTS, WNW FLOW ALOFT SHOULD KEEP
THE REST OF OUR CWA CLEAR. WINDS WILL STAY LIGHT DIURNAL
THROUGH SUNDAY, EXCEPT FOR AFTERNOON WESTERLY GUSTS TO 25 MPH
IN THE SNAKE BASIN EAST OF MOUNTAIN HOME.
LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ON MONDAY, SUPPORTING HOT, DRY, AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
RUN AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. ON TUESDAY, AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH WILL DROP INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES, PUSHING A MOSTLY
DRY COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. THERE’S STILL A WIDE
TEMPERATURE SPREAD IN ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE, REFLECTING UNCERTAINTY
IN THE STRENGTH AND IMPACT OF THIS SYSTEM. THAT SAID, THE
MAJORITY OF SOLUTIONS LEAN TOWARD SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES
ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, ALONG WITH A NOTICEABLE UPTICK IN WEST
TO NORTHWEST WINDS BOTH DAYS. ANY PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY STAY NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA, THOUGH
THERE IS A 10-20% CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS. LOOKING AHEAD TO LATE NEXT WEEK, SOME
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUGGEST A SHIFT TOWARD A MORE CLASSIC FOUR
CORNERS RIDGE PATTERN AFTER WEDNESDAY. IF THIS RIDGE BUILDS IN,
IT WOULD BRING HOTTER TEMPERATURES (5-8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL)
AND A POTENTIAL INCREASE IN MONSOONAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. HOWEVER, OTHER SOLUTIONS MAINTAIN THE
CURRENT SETUP, WITH A FLATTER RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST AND
CONTINUED TROUGHING NEAR THE WESTERN CANADIAN COAST. THIS
INTRODUCES CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE LATE-WEEK TEMPERATURE
AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK.
BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBOISE
WWW.X.COM/NWSBOISE
DISCUSSION...SH
AVIATION.....SH
SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM....JDS
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