469
FXUS65 KBOI 040950
AFDBOI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
250 AM MST WED MAR 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION TODAY BRINGING
VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW.
- SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS UP TO 45 MPH, SMALL
HAIL, AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL.
- WINDY CONDITIONS THURSDAY, PARTICULARLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
IDAHO WHERE GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED.
- POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER COLD FRONT MONDAY AND TUESDAY BRINGING
ADDITIONAL GUSTY WINDS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH INTO SOUTHEAST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST IDAHO TODAY. THIS WILL
BRING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION CONCENTRATED PRIMARILY JUST
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DYNAMIC SYSTEM
WHICH WILL BRING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ALONG WITH POTENTIALLY
STRONGER EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY
RAIN, SMALL HAIL, AND GUSTY WINDS. INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, WITH CAPE VALUES RANGING FROM 100 TO 250
J/KG, WILL SUPPORT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS (20% CHANCE)
ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS
INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER SHOWERS OR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO PRODUCE OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH,
ESPECIALLY IN THE TREASURE VALLEY AND MAGIC VALLEY DURING THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS.
VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL BE THE PRIMARY MODES OF
PRECIPITATION. SNOW LEVELS WILL START AROUND 5500 TO 6500 FEET
MSL THIS MORNING, LOWERING TO 4500 TO 5500 FEET MSL BY THIS
EVENING BEHIND THE FRONT. UP TO 0.25 INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN
THE VALLEYS. IN THE MOUNTAINS, RAIN WILL SWITCH TO SNOW ABOVE
4500 FEET. HOWEVER, SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINIMAL WITH
AROUND AN INCH POSSIBLE IN THE LONG VALLEY AND 3 TO 6 INCHES
ABOVE 6000 FEET.
BY THURSDAY, THE MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL HAVE EXITED TO THE
EAST, BUT THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER A COOL AND MOIST
NORTHWEST FLOW. SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LINGER OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
THE PRIMARY CONCERN FOR THURSDAY WILL BE THE WIND. STRONG POST-
FRONTAL NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP, WITH WIND GUSTS
UP TO 50 MPH FOR THE UPPER TREASURE VALLEY (MOUNTAIN HOME TO
THE EAST), WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY, CAMAS PRAIRIE, AND SOUTHERN
TWIN FALLS COUNTY. A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE
AREAS.
THE BACK END OF THE DEEPENING TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN COOL AND
BREEZY CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO
A FEW DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. WHILE THE MAJORITY OF THE
LOWER VALLEYS WILL SEE DRYING CONDITIONS, MOIST NORTH-NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL KEEP A 20 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN
SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN, PARTICULARLY IN THE WEST-
CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS. WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH REMAIN
POSSIBLE IN THE WIND-PRONE AREAS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL IDAHO THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THIS COMING WEEKEND
BE GENERALLY DRY AS A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC
EXTENDS AN EASTERN WING ACROSS OUR AREA. THIS RIDGING WILL ALLOW
FOR A WARMING TREND, WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL SATURDAY
WARMING TO 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL COME SUNDAY. SATURDAY WILL
FEATURE INCREASED HIGH CLOUDS AS A SHOT OF MOISTURE WORKS IT'S
WAY AROUND THE RIDGE, BEFORE CLEARING SUNDAY.
COME MONDAY/TUESDAY, THE BRIEF RIDGING OVER OUR AREA WILL BREAK
DOWN AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ITS WAY ACROSS OUR AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO LOOK LIMITED, WITH A TRAJECTORY
OVER THE NORTH CASCADES. HOWEVER, PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
INCREASE (TO 30-70%) OVER OUR NORTHERN MOUNTAINS ZONES THANKS TO
SOME OROGRAPHIC LIFT. SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP TO BE AT OR NEAR
VALLEY FLOORS FOLLOWING THIS COLD FRONT, BEGINNING AT 6.5-7.5KFT
MSL MONDAY MORNING, LOWERING TO 1-2.5KFT COME TUESDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER, AS MENTIONED ABOVE, MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED SO
ACCUMULATIONS ARE ONLY ANTICIPATED OVER THE CENTRAL IDAHO
MOUNTAINS. GUSTY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS COLD FRONT,
ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHERE THERE IS A 70-80% CHANCE OF
WIND GUSTS OF 30+ MPH IN MOUNTAIN HOME AND EASTWARD THROUGH THE
SNAKE RIVER PLAIN. IN THE CAMAS PRAIRIE, THERE IS A 75% CHANCE
OF WIND GUSTS OF 35+ MPH. WITH THE SUPPORT OF STRONG (30-50 KT)
700MB WINDS ORIENTED ROUGHLY WITH THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN, HAVE
ADJUSTED THE FORECASTED WINDS/WIND GUSTS TOWARDS THE NBM
75TH/90TH PERCENTILES. UNSETTLED NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
ALLOW FOR SHOWERS TO PERSIST OVER THE CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. COOLER AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY
BEYOND WEDNESDAY, WITH THE PACIFIC NORTH AMERICAN OSCILLATION
REMAINING IN A NEGATIVE PHASE.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED 1026 PM MST TUE MAR 3 2026
VFR OVERNIGHT. AFTER WED/12Z, COLD FRONT WILL BRING WIDESPREAD
RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW FROM NW TO SE, BECOMING SCATTERED BY EVE.
LOW VFR TO IFR DEVELOPING IN RAIN, AND IFR-LIFR IN MOUNTAIN
SNOW. SNOW LEVELS 6500FT MSL WED AM, LOWERING TO 4500-6000FT BY
WED AFTERNOON. LIGHTNING STRIKES POSSIBLE WED PM. MTNS BECOMING
OBSCURED WITH FRONT. SURFACE WINDS: S-SE 5-15 KT, SHIFTING TO
W-NW 10-25 KT WITH 25-45 KT GUSTS WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE WED.
WINDS ALOFT AT 10KFT MSL: SW TO W 20-30 KT.
KBOI...VFR THROUGH WED AM. COLD FRONT WITH PERSISTENT RAIN
ARRIVING WED/19Z-20Z. RAIN BECOMING SHOWERY BY WED EVENING.
LIGHTNING STRIKES POSSIBLE WED PM. PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR DURING
HEAVIER RAIN. FOOTHILLS OBSCURED WITH PRECIP. SURFACE WINDS:
S-SE 5-15 KT, SHIFTING TO W-NW 10-20 KT WITH GUSTS 20-35 KT WITH
FRONT AFTER WED/20Z.
BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ID...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM MST THURSDAY
IDZ014-016-028-030.
OR...NONE.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBOISE
WWW.X.COM/NWSBOISE
SHORT TERM...JDS
LONG TERM....NF
AVIATION.....SH
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