811
FXUS65 KBOI 182005 CCA
AFDBOI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
205 PM MDT WED MAR 18 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH DRY
CONDITIONS.
- BREEZY CONDITIONS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE OF CONCERN
IN CENTRAL OR FOR FIRE DANGER ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS.
- A PATTERN SHIFT WITH A COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY WILL BRING
COOLER TEMPERATURES, MOUNTAIN PRECIPITATION, AND BREEZY
WESTERLY WINDS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO
STRENGTHEN OVER THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES OVER THE NEXT DAY.
WHILE THE MOST EXTREME HEAT WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHWEST US,
THIS WILL BRING SEVERAL DAYS OF RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES TO
SOUTHEAST OR AND SOUTHWEST ID. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 20-25
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, WITH THE LOWEST VALLEYS SEEING LOW TO MID
80S AND THE MOUNTAINS REACHING THE 60S THROUGH FRIDAY. BREEZY
CONDITIONS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE OF CONCERN IN
HARNEY COUNTY FOR FIRE DANGER ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A COLD FRONT COME SATURDAY WILL MARK THE START OF A PATTERN
SHIFT FOR THE AREA. WHILE MOST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY, THIS
COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR A 30-65% CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF OUR NORTHERN ZONES. ELSEWHERE,
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED.
SATURDAY AFTERNOON, AREAS EAST OF BOISE IN THE SNAKE BASIN HAVE
A 50-85% CHANCE OF SEEING WIND GUSTS OF AT LEAST 25 MPH.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BY 10-15 DEGREES SATURDAY FOLLOWING THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE.
WITH THE COLD FRONT SWITCHING US INTO ZONAL FLOW ALOFT,
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN COOLER (ALTHOUGH STILL LEANING ABOVE
NORMAL) AND BREEZY THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE LONG-TERM PERIOD.
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES WILL ALLOW FOR PERIODS OF SHOWERS ACROSS
HIGHER TERRAIN AND CLOUDS AREA- WIDE. COME TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY,
THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING A GULF OF ALASKA LOW
AND ITS SUBSEQUENT EVOLUTION. THIS, IN TURN, IS LOWERING
CONFIDENCE IN TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION TIMING. FOR NOW, AM
MAINTAINING TEMPERATURES NEAR THE NBM MEAN, WITH PRECIPITATION
CHANCES INCREASING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY.
BOTH OF THESE FACTORS DEPENDS ON THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM AND OUR
RESIDENCE TIME WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR, WHICH WILL BECOME BETTER
REFINED IN THE DAYS TO COME.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED 1111 AM MDT WED MAR 18 2026
VFR UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. SURFACE WINDS: LIGHT AND VARIABLE,
EXCEPT UP TO 12 KT NEAR KTWF/KJER. WINDS ALOFT AT 10KFT MSL:
W-SW 15-30 KT.
KBOI...VFR WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE SURFACE WINDS.
BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBOISE
WWW.X.COM/NWSBOISE
SHORT TERM...KA
LONG TERM....NF
AVIATION.....NF
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