009
FXUS65 KBOI 191638
AFDBOI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
938 AM MST THU FEB 19 2026
DISCUSSION
COOL AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS PERSIST TODAY AS A
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS THE DOMINANT FEATURE OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. A WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSAGE LATER TODAY MOVING
ALONG THE OREGON COAST INTO CALIFORNIA WILL FACILITATE SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHEAST OREGON AND ALONG THE IDAHO/NEVADA
BORDER. OVERALL, UP TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS, INCLUDING
THE TREASURE VALLEY AND SNAKE RIVER PLAIN, MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES INLAND EARLY FRIDAY BRINGING
THE LAST ROUND FOR SHOWERS TO THE REGION. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA INCLUDING
THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN. ACCUMULATIONS THOUGH WILL BE MINIMAL WITH
LESS THAN 0.2 INCHES EXPECTED. THIS SHIFT WILL ALLOW HEIGHTS TO
BEGIN RISING OVER OUR AREA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON, SIGNALING THE
START OF A BRIEF DRYING TREND FOR THE START OF THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
GENERALLY VFR THROUGH THE DAY AS LIFR MOUNTAIN FOG
DISSIPATES THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED MTN SNOW SHOWERS WILL BRING
BRIEF IFR/MTN OBSCURATION IN THE AFTERNOON. SURFACE WINDS: SE-NE 5-
15 KT. WINDS ALOFT AT 10KFT MSL: S 5-15 KT.
KBOI...VFR UNDER MID-HIGH CLOUDS. ALTHOUGH, A 10% CHANCE OF LIGHT
SNOW FRIDAY MORNING AND ACCOMPANYING IFR CONDITIONS. LIGHT SE
SURFACE WINDS THROUGH THE DAY.
WEEKEND OUTLOOK...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS. LOCAL IFR FOG IN MTN
VALLEYS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNINGS. SURFACE WINDS SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY SE 5-15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT, EXCEPT IN HIGHLANDS AND
THE SNAKE PLAIN WHERE GUSTS UP TO 30 KT ARE POSSIBLE.
PREV DISCUSSION
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THE AREA REMAINS UNDER A
BROAD COOL TROUGH DIGGING OUT EAST TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE COLDER SIDE THIS MORNING AND
CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER 40S FOR VALLEYS TODAY AND TOMORROW. HIGH
SURFACE MOISTURE WILL FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF MOUNTAIN VALLEY
FOG THIS MORNING THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE GREAT BASIN FROM THE
OR COAST LATER TODAY, BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTIVE SNOW
SHOWERS MAINLY OVER SOUTHEAST OR AND THE CENTRAL ID MOUNTAINS.
THE SYSTEM WILL SHIFT FURTHER EAST FRIDAY, BRINGING A MORE
DEFINED BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY EARLY MORNING THROUGH
AFTERNOON. MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED
FOR THE WEST-CENTRAL ID MOUNTAINS BY LATE FRIDAY. A PERIOD OF
LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE FOR THE LOWER VALLEYS FRIDAY MORNING.
BY FRIDAY NIGHT, MOST AREAS WILL START SEEING A DRYING TREND AS
AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE BEGINS BUILDING INTO THE REGION OVER THE
WEEKEND. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN SATURDAY, WITH
VALLEY DAYTIME TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER
40S. CLEARING SKIES WILL PAVE WAY FOR COLD OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
TEENS AND 20S FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. STRONG TROUGHING FROM A
POTENT UPPER LOW DIGGING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST WILL
BRING GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS FOR MOST AREAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON,
WITH THE HIGHEST CONCENTRATED NEAR BAKER COUNTY OR AND THE
MOUNTAIN HOME AREA OF ID.
LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A DEEP TROUGH OFF THE
WEST COAST WILL KEEP OUR REGION UNDER A MILD SW FLOW ON SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL ON MONDAY WHICH WILL PUT LOWER ELEVATIONS IN THE UPPER
50S. PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE ACROSS SE OREGON AND THE
MTNS OF SW IDAHO ON MONDAY AS THE TROUGH DRAWS DEEPER MOISTURE
NORTHWARD. MONDAY NIGHT/TUE WILL BE THE PERIOD OF HEAVIEST
RAIN/SNOW RATES AS MTN TOP LEVEL FLOW REACHES 30-50 MPH AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES PUSH PAST THE 90TH PERCENTILE. DURING
THIS PERIOD, SNOW LEVELS WILL RESIDE AROUND 5KFT MSL ACROSS
E-CENTRAL OREGON AND W-CENTRAL IDAHO, TO BETWEEN 6-7KFT MSL
ALONG THE NV BORDER. THIS WILL KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOW
IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE W-CENTRAL AND BOISE MTNS IN IDAHO
(MAINLY EAST OF IDAHO CITY/GARDEN VALLEY AND HWY 55 CORRIDOR).
VALLEYS WILL SEE PRECIPITATION CHANCES PUSH ABOVE 60% AS THE
RIDGE FLATTENS OUT IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING TROUGH. SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN FOR WED/THUR, BUT THE 00Z DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS
HAVE TRENDED DRIER BEHIND THE EXITING TROUGH. THE NBM/FORECAST
IS HOLDING ONTO BROAD PRECIPITATION CHANCES, BUT WOULD EXPECT IT
TO CATCH UP WITH THIS TREND IF THE 12Z SOLUTIONS REMAIN DRY.
AFTER MONDAY'S HIGHS, TEMPERATURES FOR TUE-THUR WILL HOLD NEAR
NORMAL.
BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBOISE
WWW.X.COM/NWSBOISE
DISCUSSION...JDS
AVIATION.....JM
SHORT TERM...JY
LONG TERM....DG
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