246  
FXUS65 KBOI 210230  
AFDBOI  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID  
830 PM MDT SAT APR 20 2019  
   
DISCUSSION
 
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL  
CONTINUE THIS EVENING, MAINLY IN SOUTHWEST IDAHO, ALTHOUGH THE  
CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD  
THROUGH SUNDAY. DRIER AIR WILL START TO WORK IN BEHIND THE TROUGH  
WITH SHOWERS ENDING IN SOUTHEAST OREGON BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE  
SHOWERS WILL PERSIST IN SOUTHWEST IDAHO THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON,  
MAINLY EAST OF MOUNTAIN HOME. IT WILL REMAIN BREEZY OVERNIGHT  
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING, BECOMING WINDY DURING THE AFTERNOON. IT  
WILL BE WARMER IN SOUTHEAST OREGON AND COOLER IN SOUTHWEST IDAHO,  
ESPECIALLY IN SOUTH-CENTRAL IDAHO DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS.  
NO UPDATES.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
MOSTLY VFR. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CREATING  
PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR MUCH OF  
THE AREA, THEN CONFINED TO THE MAGIC VALLEY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.  
PATCHY VALLEY FOG/STRATUS OVERNIGHT. SURFACE WINDS: GENERALLY W-NW  
5-15 KTS, WITH GUSTS TO 20-25 KTS. GUSTS TO 35 KTS POSSIBLE NEAR  
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS ALOFT NEAR 10 KFT MSL: N-NW 20-30  
KTS.  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
 
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS  
CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON, WITH ACTIVITY  
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS. GUSTY WIND AND SMALL  
HAIL REMAIN THE MAIN THREATS WITH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THE  
CURRENT TROUGH WILL CONVERT TO A CLOSED LOW LATE TONIGHT OR INTO  
SUNDAY MORNING, LEAVING A FEW SHOWERS OVER WESTERN IDAHO THROUGH  
SUNDAY EVENING. AS THE UPPER LOW DIVES FURTHER SOUTH, IT WILL TAKE  
MOST MOISTURE WITH IT, LEAVING A DRY NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW OVER  
THE FORECAST AREA BY MONDAY MORNING. DRY AND WARMING CONDITIONS  
EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. FLOW ACROSS THE AREA WILL BECOME  
MORE ZONAL, WITH MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE  
FORECAST AREA FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON PRODUCING A FEW SHOWERS.  
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY WARM TO AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL  
BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.  
 
LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...A MILD ZONAL FLOW  
SETS UP FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, ALTHOUGH DIFFERENCES BETWEEN  
THE GFS ECMWF ARE STARK IN MOISTURE WITHIN THIS FLOW, AND THUS ANY  
PRECIPITATION. THE CURRENT FORECAST FOR THIS TIME PERIOD IS A  
BLEND OF MODELS, AND THAT CONSENSUS IS ON THE DRIER SIDE WITH  
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE TERRAIN.  
THERE IS A BIT MORE CONFIDENCE IN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEING A BIT  
MORE ACTIVE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, BUT THE LARGE SCALE  
PATTERN AND FORCING MECHANISMS DIFFER AMONG THE OPERATIONAL  
MODELS. NONETHELESS, TEMPERATURES LOOK MILD AND ABOVE NORMAL  
THROUGH THE PERIOD.  
 

 
   
BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
ID...NONE.  
OR...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOISE  
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBOISE  
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBOISE  
 
DISCUSSION...BW  
AVIATION.....SH  
PREV SHORT TERM...KB  
PREV LONG TERM....EP  
 
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