246
FXUS65 KBOI 210230
AFDBOI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
830 PM MDT SAT APR 20 2019
DISCUSSION
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE THIS EVENING, MAINLY IN SOUTHWEST IDAHO, ALTHOUGH THE
CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD
THROUGH SUNDAY. DRIER AIR WILL START TO WORK IN BEHIND THE TROUGH
WITH SHOWERS ENDING IN SOUTHEAST OREGON BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE
SHOWERS WILL PERSIST IN SOUTHWEST IDAHO THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON,
MAINLY EAST OF MOUNTAIN HOME. IT WILL REMAIN BREEZY OVERNIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING, BECOMING WINDY DURING THE AFTERNOON. IT
WILL BE WARMER IN SOUTHEAST OREGON AND COOLER IN SOUTHWEST IDAHO,
ESPECIALLY IN SOUTH-CENTRAL IDAHO DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS.
NO UPDATES.
AVIATION
MOSTLY VFR. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CREATING
PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA, THEN CONFINED TO THE MAGIC VALLEY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
PATCHY VALLEY FOG/STRATUS OVERNIGHT. SURFACE WINDS: GENERALLY W-NW
5-15 KTS, WITH GUSTS TO 20-25 KTS. GUSTS TO 35 KTS POSSIBLE NEAR
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS ALOFT NEAR 10 KFT MSL: N-NW 20-30
KTS.
PREV DISCUSSION
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON, WITH ACTIVITY
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS. GUSTY WIND AND SMALL
HAIL REMAIN THE MAIN THREATS WITH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THE
CURRENT TROUGH WILL CONVERT TO A CLOSED LOW LATE TONIGHT OR INTO
SUNDAY MORNING, LEAVING A FEW SHOWERS OVER WESTERN IDAHO THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING. AS THE UPPER LOW DIVES FURTHER SOUTH, IT WILL TAKE
MOST MOISTURE WITH IT, LEAVING A DRY NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW OVER
THE FORECAST AREA BY MONDAY MORNING. DRY AND WARMING CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. FLOW ACROSS THE AREA WILL BECOME
MORE ZONAL, WITH MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE
FORECAST AREA FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON PRODUCING A FEW SHOWERS.
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY WARM TO AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...A MILD ZONAL FLOW
SETS UP FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, ALTHOUGH DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
THE GFS ECMWF ARE STARK IN MOISTURE WITHIN THIS FLOW, AND THUS ANY
PRECIPITATION. THE CURRENT FORECAST FOR THIS TIME PERIOD IS A
BLEND OF MODELS, AND THAT CONSENSUS IS ON THE DRIER SIDE WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE TERRAIN.
THERE IS A BIT MORE CONFIDENCE IN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEING A BIT
MORE ACTIVE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, BUT THE LARGE SCALE
PATTERN AND FORCING MECHANISMS DIFFER AMONG THE OPERATIONAL
MODELS. NONETHELESS, TEMPERATURES LOOK MILD AND ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBOISE
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBOISE
DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION.....SH
PREV SHORT TERM...KB
PREV LONG TERM....EP
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