744
FXUS65 KBOI 250021
AFDBOI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
621 PM MDT SUN MAY 24 2026
UPDATE
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE ID/NV BORDER
THROUGH THIS EVENING.
- GUSTY WINDS ON MEMORIAL DAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT, RESULTING
IN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN SOUTHEASTERN OREGON.
- SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY PM RESULTING IN STRONG
OUTFLOWS TO 35-55 MPH AND BLOWING DUST, MAINLY OVER SW IDAHO.
- MUCH COOLER WITH MODERATE WIND AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED 224 PM MDT SUN MAY 24 2026
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY, WITH
TEMPERATURES 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND AFTERNOON MINIMUM
RHS 10-30%. THE HOTTEST DAY WILL BE MONDAY, MEMORIAL DAY, WHICH
WARMS UP JUST BEFORE A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THAT NIGHT. THE
ALIGNMENT OF PRE-FRONTAL WINDS WITH HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS HAS
RESULTED IN A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER PATTERN PROMPTING THE
ISSUANCE OF A FIRE WEATHER WATCH. WIND GUSTS 30-45 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS SE OREGON, AND 25-30 MPH ACROSS SW IDAHO. WINDS
MAY CAUSE BLOWING DUST ACROSS THE AREA, LIMITING VISIBILITY AND
REDUCING AIR QUALITY. TODAY AND TOMORROW, THUNDERSTORMS AND
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE ID/NV BORDER AND IN CENTRAL IDAHO
MOUNTAINS. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, TEMPERATURES COOL TO 5 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL ON TUESDAY AND CONDITIONS REMAIN BREEZY AS THE
OVERALL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWS OVER THE REGION. LOWER
TEMPERATURES ALLOW MORNING RHS TO CLIMB TO NEAR SATURATION IN
SOME MOUNTAIN VALLEYS, WHICH COULD PRODUCE BRIEF LOW CLOUDS.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE TO 40-70% ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY
EVENING, GENERALLY INCREASING WITH ELEVATION.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED 224 PM MDT SUN MAY 24 2026
CONTINUED STRONG AGREEMENT THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
BRINGING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO THE REGION WILL BE CUT-OFF TO
THE SOUTH OVER NEVADA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. AN APPROACHING
TROUGH IS THEN EXPECTED TO DRAW THE LOW NORTHWARD ACROSS IDAHO
AND INTO MONTANA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE PROXIMITY OF
THIS LOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL, AND
COLD AIR ALOFT ALONG WITH MOISTURE WILL MAKE THE PERFECT
CONDITIONS FOR ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. STORMS WILL
FAVOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS, BUT ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL EXIST FOR
ACTIVITY THROUGHOUT EACH DAY AND EVEN OVERNIGHT. STORM TOTAL
PRECIPITATION OF 0.3-0.5 INCHES IS FORECAST FOR LOWER VALLEYS,
WITH 0.75-1 INCHES FORECAST FOR MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AND THE HIGHER
PEAKS OF CENTRAL IDAHO. THE PROBABILITY OF 0.5 INCHES OR MORE IS
35-45% FOR THE LOWER VALLEYS, AND THE PROBABILITY OF 1 INCH OR
MORE FOR THE IDAHO MOUNTAINS IS 50-60%. NEARLY ALL ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE HAS THE LOW EAST OF THE REGION BY SUNDAY WITH IMPROVING
CONDITIONS AND SLOW WARMING TREND ANTICIPATED.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED 615 PM MDT SUN MAY 24 2026
VFR. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE 25/04Z NEAR KTWF/KJER, CAPABLE
OF OUTFLOWS UP TO 35 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
SW IDAHO AND FAR NE OREGON MONDAY PM, PRODUCING OUTFLOWS TO
30-50 KT. POTENTIAL FOR BLOWING DUST. SURFACE WINDS OUTSIDE OF
STORMS: W-NW 5-15 KT THIS EVE, THEN VARIABLE UP TO 12 KT
OVERNIGHT. THEN, SE-SW 10-20 KT WITH GUSTS 15-35 KT AFTER
25/16Z. WINDS ALOFT AT 10KFT: WSW 10-25 KT, BECOMING SSW 20-30
KT MONDAY PM.
KBOI...VFR. SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM THREAT BETWEEN 25/20Z AND
26/00Z. STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF OUTFLOW WINDS TO 35-45 KT,
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING, AND BLOWING DUST. SURFACE WINDS: NW
5-10 KT, BECOMING SE 5-12 KT AFTER SUNSET.
FIRE WEATHER
HOT TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS, MINIMUM RHS
10-15%, AND GUSTY WINDS 30-45 MPH HAVE PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF
A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN SOUTHEAST OREGON FOR MEMORIAL DAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A COLD FRONT, EXPECTED TO ARRIVE THAT
NIGHT, WILL BRING GUSTY PRE-FRONTAL WINDS WITHIN THE ALREADY
WARM AND DRY ENVIRONMENT. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHWEST IDAHO MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING COULD
BRING STRONG OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS OF 35-55 MPH AS WELL AS
LIGHTNING. THIS COULD EFFECT ONGOING WILD AND PRESCRIBED FIRES
ACROSS THE WESTERN TWIN FALLS BLM, BOISE BLM/NF AND PAYETTE NF.
MORNING MAXIMUM RHS CONSISTENTLY RECOVER WEDNESDAY MORNING
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK, WITH A 30-40% CHANCE OF WETTING
RAIN EACH DAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVERHEAD.
BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ID...NONE.
OR...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING FOR ORZ670-672.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBOISE
WWW.X.COM/NWSBOISE
AVIATION.....SH
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM....MC
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