936  
FXUS65 KBOI 240843  
AFDBOI  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID  
243 AM MDT MON JUN 24 2024  
   
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
 
A MILD COLD FRONT  
PASSED THROUGH THIS MORNING, MAINTAINING COOLER TEMPERATURES  
WITH WEST-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE TREASURE VALLEY TODAY.  
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID  
90S. HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL EXPERIENCE WESTERLY WINDS WITH  
GUSTS UP TO 20-30 MPH, CREATING WARM, DRY, AND BREEZY CONDITIONS  
CONDUCIVE TO ACTIVE FIRE BEHAVIOR. THIS MAY LEAD TO SMOKE  
PLUMES AND HAZE, PARTICULARLY EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE SIGNIFICANT  
FIRE IN SOUTHWEST OWYHEE COUNTY.  
 
ON TUESDAY, A MUCH STRONGER TROUGH FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL  
APPROACH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST, CAUSING UPPER-LEVEL WINDS  
TO SHIFT SOUTH- SOUTHWEST. THIS CHANGE WILL BRING A RETURN TO  
HOT TEMPERATURES. MOISTURE ORIGINATING FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN  
U.S. WILL MOVE NORTHWARD REACHING THE IDAHO/NEVADA BORDER  
TUESDAY EVENING. THE MOISTURE IS HIGH-BASED WITH MINIMAL  
POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION DESPITE SOME CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.  
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECASTED TO PEAK ON TUESDAY WITH LIGHT  
SURFACE WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES, WITH A 30-60% CHANCE OF  
TEMPERATURES REACHING 100 DEGREES OR HIGHER.  
 
BY WEDNESDAY, AS THE TROUGH MOVES FURTHER INLAND, HIGH-LEVEL  
MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS SOUTHWEST IDAHO. THE UPPER- LEVEL JET  
STREAM WILL PASS OVER THE AREA, ENHANCING INSTABILITY AND SHEAR.  
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REACHING 1 INCH OVER SOUTH- CENTRAL  
IDAHO SUGGEST FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORM  
DEVELOPMENT. MODEL FORECASTS VARY ON EXACT LOCATIONS OF THESE  
STORMS, BUT FAVOR HIGHER TERRAIN IN SOUTHWEST IDAHO. INVERTED-V  
PROFILES AND STRONG MID-LEVEL WINDS INDICATE THESE STORMS MAY  
PRODUCE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS, ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE AREAS OF  
DEEPEST MOISTURE OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL IDAHO. INCREASED CLOUD COVER  
AND WEST-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY  
COOLER, AROUND THE MID 90S IN THE LOWER VALLEYS.  
   
LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
 
A TROUGH WILL CONTINUE  
TO MOVE THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND BRING IN NOTABLY  
COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. SURFACE WINDS  
WILL BECOME BREEZY THURSDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT, BUT  
THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IS LESS THAN 10 PERCENT. DRY,  
WESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY AS THE TROUGH EXITS TOWARD THE  
EAST, WITH HOT TEMPERATURES RETURNING FOR THE WEEKEND AS AN  
UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. MODELS  
CURRENTLY INDICATE AN INCREASE OF MOISTURE SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS  
THE NEXT PACIFIC TROUGH APPROACHES, YIELDING A POTENTIAL (15-30%  
CHANCE) FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTHEAST OREGON AND  
WEST-CENTRAL IDAHO ON SUN/MON.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
VFR. REDUCED VISIBILITY FROM SMOKE IN FAR SW IDAHO.  
SURFACE WINDS: GENERALLY SW TO NW 5-15 KT. AFTERNOON GUSTS TO 20-25  
KT IN SE OREGON AND NEAR ID/NV BORDER. WINDS ALOFT AT 10KFT MSL: W-  
SW 15-30 KT.  
 
KBOI...VFR WITH CLEAR SKIES. SURFACE WINDS: NW 5-10 KT.  
 

 
   
BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
ID...NONE.  
OR...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOISE  
 
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA:  
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBOISE  
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBOISE  
 
SHORT TERM...JDS  
LONG TERM....SH  
AVIATION.....SH  
 
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