866
FXUS65 KBOI 271019
AFDBOI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
319 AM MST TUE JAN 27 2026
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AS A PACIFIC TROUGH
APPROACHES THE COAST. THIS TRANSITION WILL BRING INCREASING MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHEAST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST
IDAHO LATER TODAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING,
BRINGING A SHIFT TO BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS AND BRIEF SNOW
SHOWERS. GUSTS BETWEEN 25 AND 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
MAGIC VALLEY AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE OWYHEE MOUNTAINS.
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS THE TREASURE VALLEY WITH A 20 TO 30
PERCENT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION BETWEEN 5 AND 10 AM MST ON
WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW REGARDING HOW
GUIDANCE IS HANDLING THE PERSISTENT DRY BOUNDARY LAYER AND
LIMITED WARM AIR ALOFT. THE LATEST HREF SHOWS ONLY FOUR MEMBERS
WITH ANY PRECIPITATION FALLING IN BOISE. IF PRECIPITATION
OCCURS, IT IS LIKELY TO BE SNOW IN THE VALLEYS DUE TO OVERNIGHT
COLD TEMPERATURES PAIRED WITH LINGERING COLD AIR FROM THE
INVERSION. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE LESS THAN A TENTH
OF AN INCH, WITH MOUNTAINS SEEING LESS THAN ONE INCH.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS
TODAY BEFORE COOLING TOWARD SEASONAL AVERAGES BEHIND THE FRONT
ON WEDNESDAY.
THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS THURSDAY, THOUGH NOT ENOUGH
TO COMPLETELY REMOVE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
ZONES. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
RE-STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY,
SUPPORTING MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A WEAK, SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH
NORTHERN IDAHO ON FRIDAY THAT HAS A 30% CHANCE OF CLIPPING BAKER
COUNTY AND WEST-CENTRAL IDAHO WITH PRECIPITATION, WITH SNOW LEVELS
AT APPROXIMATELY 4500 FT MSL. A SECOND WEAK TROUGH WILL ATTEMPT TO
BREAK THROUGH THE UPPER RIDGE MONDAY AND TUESDAY, CREATING ANOTHER
OPPORTUNITY FOR PRECIP. HOWEVER, MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH THE
SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF THIS TROUGH, ELEVATING FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IN
THE PRECIP LOCATION AND HOW MUCH COOLING INFLUENCE IT WILL HAVE
ACROSS THE AREA NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
VFR. CONDITIONS DEGRADING AS WINTER PRECIP MOVES W TO E
THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN WED/06Z-18Z. IFR-LIFR AND MTN OBSCURATION
IN SNOW. A 30% CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN/WINTRY MIX IN LOWER TREASURE
VALLEY WED/09Z-14Z. SURFACE WINDS: VARIABLE UP TO 12 KT. WINDS ALOFT
AT 10KFT MSL: W TO SW 10-20 KT.
KBOI...VFR. PERIOD OF IFR/LIFR IN SNOW OR WINTRY MIX WED MORNING.
BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP WED/12Z-16Z. LINGERING LOW CEILINGS THROUGH
LATE WED MORNING BEFORE IMPROVING TO VFR. SURFACE WINDS: LIGHT AND
VARIABLE, THEN SE 5-10 KT THIS AFTERNOON.
BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBOISE
WWW.X.COM/NWSBOISE
SHORT TERM...JDS
LONG TERM....SH
AVIATION.....SH
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