382
FXUS65 KBOI 151005
AFDBOI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
305 AM MST SUN FEB 15 2026
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
A STALLED WARM FRONT
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS TODAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE 5-6KFT MSL, LIMITING ANY
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION TO HIGHER PEAKS. DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL ELSEWHERE UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THE FLOW
ALOFT WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF A LOW OFF THE COAST OF
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER DAY OF ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TODAY, WITH HIGHS CLIMBING A FEW DEGREES FROM
YESTERDAY. ON MONDAY, A DEEP AND COLD UPPER LOW WILL DROP SOUTH
OUT OF NORTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA AND END UP JUST WEST OF
VANCOUVER ISLAND. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE IN SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD
OF THIS SYSTEM, BRINGING LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO SOUTHEAST
OREGON AND THE MOUNTAINS. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH
AT AROUND 4500-5500 FEET THROUGH THE DAY, AND TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SIMILAR TO TODAY EXCEPT FOR A FEW DEGREES COOLER ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OREGON. WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN TODAY AND TOMORROW IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM.
ON MONDAY NIGHT, THE LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL RAPIDLY
PIVOT NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR AREA AHEAD OF THE DEEPER LOW NEAR
VANCOUVER ISLAND. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A COLD FRONT,
WITH SNOW LEVELS FALLING TO NEAR VALLEY FLOORS OVERNIGHT. THE
FRONT WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SNOW, TAPERING OFF TUESDAY
MORNING. PRECIPITATION IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AND ACROSS MUCH
OF SOUTHEAST OREGON MAY BEGIN AS RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX BEFORE
QUICKLY CHANGING TO SNOW. IN THE TREASURE AND MAGIC VALLEYS,
RAIN MAY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING, BUT ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE MINIMAL. SNOW AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 4 INCHES
ARE EXPECTED IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS, WITH 4 TO 10 INCHES ABOVE
6000 FEET. RAIN AMOUNTS AT LOWER ELEVATIONS SHOULD BE LESS THAN
0.25". SNOW SHOWERS (MIXED WITH RAIN IN THE LOWEST VALLEYS)
WILL REDEVELOP LATE TUESDAY AS THE COLD UPPER LOW BEGINS TO MOVE
INLAND. THIS SHOULD BRING ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION TO
THE MOUNTAINS, BUT AMOUNTS WILL VARY DUE TO THE SHOWERY NATURE
OF THIS NEXT ROUND MOVING IN. A DUSTING OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE
(AROUND A 30 TO 50% CHANCE) IN THE LOWER VALLEYS AS WELL WITH
THIS ACTIVITY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER ON
TUESDAY. GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO DEVELOP, STRONGEST OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND NEAR THE NEVADA BORDER WHERE GUSTS 30 TO 40
MPH ARE LIKELY.
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
THE DEEPENING UPPER LOW
OFF THE NORTHWEST COAST WILL WEAKEN AS IT STEERS INTO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AS A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH. THIS WILL PROMOTE
CONTINUED SNOW SHOWERS AND BRING SNOW LEVELS DOWN TO VALLEY
FLOORS. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE HIGHLY VARIED DUE TO THE SHOWERY
NATURE OF PRECIPITATION. FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS, THERE REMAINS
AROUND A 20-40% CHANCE OF AT LEAST A DUSTING OF SNOW, WITH ONLY
MINIMAL CHANCES OF MORE THAN 4 INCHES OF SNOW IN MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS. WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY WITH TEMPERATURES COOLING
ANOTHER 5 DEGREES OR SO FROM TUESDAY.
AS THIS WEAKENING SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF OUR AREA BY LATE
WEDNESDAY, LONG-RANGE ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TO DROP SOUTH ALONG THE BRITISH
COLUMBIA COAST INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND GREAT BASIN
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS PROJECTED TO BRING A
NORTHWEST FLOW OVER OUR REGION, FAVORING SNOWFALL AT ALL
ELEVATIONS THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. TOTAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS FOR LATE WEEK REMAIN MOSTLY UNCERTAIN, BUT THIS
SYSTEM SHOULD BE MONITORED CLOSELY FOR TRANSPORTATION IMPACTS
ESPECIALLY OVER MOUNTAIN AREAS. BRIEF RIDGING AHEAD OF ANOTHER
POTENT UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA IS LOOKING TO
RETURN LATER SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, POTENTIALLY BRINGING
TEMPERATURES BACK UP ONTO THE WARMER SIDE. SUSTAINED WINTRY
PRECIPITATION REMAINS POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY OVER
HIGHER ELEVATIONS, DEPENDING ON THE MAGNITUDE OF MOISTURE
INFLUX FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM DEEPENING INTO THE
NORTHWEST.
AVIATION
VFR. LOWERING CEILINGS AND LINGERING MOUNTAIN
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL BRING MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS NEAR KBNO,
KBKE, AND KMYL THIS MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON. MOUNTAINS
OBSCURED. SNOW LEVELS 5000- 6000 FT MSL. SURFACE WINDS LIGHT AND
VARIABLE LESS THAN 5KT IN MOST AREAS, SE 5-10KT IN SNAKE RIVER
PLAIN NEAR KBOI AND KMUO. WINDS ALOFT AT 10KFT MSL: SW 15-25KT.
KBOI...VFR. SURFACE WINDS: VARIABLE OR SE UNDER 10 KT.
BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBOISE
WWW.X.COM/NWSBOISE
SHORT TERM...ST
LONG TERM....JY
AVIATION.....JY
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