551
FXUS65 KBOI 071200
AFDBOI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
500 AM MST SAT MAR 7 2026
UPDATE
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.
KEY MESSAGES
- A CHANCE OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION TODAY, THEN DRIER AND WARMER
ON SUNDAY.
- A CANADIAN LOW WILL BRING MOUNTAIN SHOWERS, LARGE TEMPERATURE
SWINGS, AND WINDY CONDITIONS TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED 259 AM MST SAT MAR 7 2026
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
A WEAK SHORT WAVE PASSAGE COUPLED WITH WEAK WARM ADVECTION AND
HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER CONTENT BRINGS INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND
A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TODAY. SEVERAL HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL
RUNS THIS MORNING HAVE LOWERED CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN TODAY. HAVE
MAINTAINED 15 PERCENT ACROSS THE LOWER SNAKE PLAIN WEST OF
MOUNTAIN HOME AND SOUTHEAST OREGON DOWN TO THE NEVADA BORDER
THIS MORNING; HOWEVER, AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT IF ANY, WITH SPOTTY
COVERAGE AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. A LOW CHANCE (20-30 PERCENT
CHANCE) OF SHOWERS LINGERS OVER THE WEST CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS
ON SUNDAY, NORTH OF MCCALL TO YELLOW PINE. SNOW LEVELS WILL
START AT MOUNTAIN VALLEY FLOORS THIS MORNING WHERE UP TO AN INCH
OF ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE.
AFTER SOME MORNING FOG, DRY AND NOTABLY WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL
SET UP ON SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD. WARMER SPOTS WILL
SEE HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S, WITH THE ENTIRE REGION REACHING
AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT, DIRECTED BY A
CANADIAN TROUGH, WILL BEGIN TO INFLUENCE THE REGION BY MONDAY.
THIS WILL BRING INCREASING GUSTY WINDS, COOLER TEMPERATURES, AND
MOUNTAIN PRECIPITATION FOR THE START OF THE WEEK. THE PRIMARY
FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL OCCUR LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, WITH THE
BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION OVER HIGH TERRAIN IN NORTHEAST
OREGON AND SOUTHWEST IDAHO (30 TO 50 PERCENT CHANCE). WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN MONDAY AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE MAGIC VALLEY AND HIGH DESERT REGIONS.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED 259 AM MST SAT MAR 7 2026
A PRONOUNCED CANADIAN COLD FRONT WILL BECOME WELL-ESTABLISHED OVER
THE REGION ON TUESDAY. STRONG WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, ALONG WITH
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM THE FRONT, WILL SUPPORT GUSTY
WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS AT THE SURFACE, ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL
IDAHO. TUESDAY DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLED BY 10-15 DEGREES
COMPARED TO MONDAY. WHILE THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN NORTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA, A CHANCE (40-60%) OF LIGHT SNOW IS FORECAST
ACROSS NORTHEAST OREGON AND WEST-CENTRAL IDAHO THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WILL START
TO BUILD NORTHWARD AND ALLOW ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO RETURN
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND ESPECIALLY THURSDAY.
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST DURING
THIS TIME, WHICH WILL MAINTAIN PRECIP CHANCES (30-60%) ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ZONES BOTH DAYS. WINDY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED IN THE
AFTERNOONS, THIS TIME AFFECTING MORE OF SOUTHEAST OREGON AND CENTRAL
IDAHO AS SURFACE FLOW TRANSITIONS TO SOUTH/SOUTHWEST. SOME ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS ARE CURRENTLY FAVORING THE RETURN OF THE COLDER, CANADIAN
AIRMASS SOMETIME LATE FRIDAY OR SATURDAY, WHICH WOULD EXTEND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES SOUTHWARD ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. FORECAST
TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT UNCERTAIN FRI/SAT DUE TO THIS POSSIBILITY,
BUT SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY.
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED 500 AM MST SAT MAR 7 2026 A 30% CHANCE OF MVFR IN
STRATUS/LIGHT PRECIP AT MOST TAF SITES THROUGH LATE MORNING OR
EARLY AFTERNOON. MTN OBSCURATION. OTHERWISE VFR. SNOW LEVELS
4.5-6.5KFT MSL, RISING FROM WEST TO EAST TO 6-8KFT BY LATE AM.
SURFACE WINDS: LIGHT AND VARIABLE, THEN W TO NW 5-15 KT THIS
AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO 20-25 KT AROUND KJER/KTWF. WINDS ALOFT AT
10KFT MSL: NW TO N 20-40 KT.
KBOI...A 30% CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN WITH MVFR CEILINGS THIS
MORNING, THEN VFR AND DRY THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE WINDS:
SE AROUND 5 KT, SHIFTING TO NW 5-12 KT AROUND SAT/18Z.
SUNDAY OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR AND DRY SUNDAY, EXCEPT ISOLATED SHOWERS
OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND PATCHY VALLEY FOG/LOW STRATUS
IN THE MORNING. SNOW LEVELS 6.5-7.5KFT. SURFACE WINDS: SW TO NW
5-15 KT, WITH AFTERNOON GUSTS TO 15-25 KT.
BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBOISE
WWW.X.COM/NWSBOISE
AVIATION.....SH
SHORT TERM...JDS
LONG TERM....SH
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