073
FXUS66 KMFR 271156
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
356 AM PST FRI FEB 27 2026
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 12Z TAFS
DISCUSSION
WITH AN UPPER RIDGE REMAINING THE GUIDING INFLUENCE
TODAY, A MILD DAY OF WEATHER IS FORECAST ACROSS THE AREA. FOR EARLY
THIS MORNING, FOG DEVELOPMENT IS THE MAIN AREA OF INTEREST. ONSHORE
FLOW IS ALLOWING FOG TO DEVELOP AT THE NORTH BEND AIRPORT, WHICH MAY
STICK AROUND INTO THE LATE MORNING. FOG HAS ALSO DEVELOPED IN THE
UMPQUA VALLEY, WHILE SO FAR THE ROGUE VALLEY REMAINS FOGLESS
UNDER MID-LEVEL CLOUDS. EAST OF THE CASCADES, DRIER AIR UNDER MID-
TO HIGH- LEVEL CEILINGS LOOKS TO LIMIT WIDESPREAD FOG, BUT
LOCALIZED DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE.
WHILE TODAY'S DAYTIME HIGHS LOOK TO BE ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS, JUST
HOW FAR ABOVE WILL DEPEND ON CLOUD COVER. THE HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS
LOOK TO CONTINUE INTO THE LATE MORNING. WITH THEIR PRESENCE,
PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE HAS RELATIVELY LARGE RANGES FOR TODAY'S HIGHS
IN SOME PLACES. MEDFORD HAS EQUAL CHANCES OF HAVING A DAYTIME HIGH
OF 60 DEGREES OR 66 DEGREES, WHILE KLAMATH FALLS HAS EQUAL CHANCES
OF 58 AND 63 DEGREES. THE EARLIER CLOUDS BREAK, THE WARMER AN AREA
WILL BE.
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY, THE UPPER RIDGE STARTS TO GIVE WAY TO A
CUTOFF LOW APPROACHING FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC. A WARM FRONT FROM
THIS LOW STARTING EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, WHICH WILL LIKELY LIMIT
FOG DEVELOPMENT INTO THE DAYTIME HOURS. RAINFALL FROM THE FRONT WILL
CONTINUE INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, THEN THE CUTOFF LOW ITSELF WILL
MOVE OVER THE AREA AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAINFALL INTO MONDAY.
FORECAST SNOW LEVELS REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH, AT 8000-8500 FEET WITH THE
WARM FRONT THEN 6000-7000 FEET WITH THE CUTOFF LOW. CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN SLIGHT (10-15%) BUT NOTICEABLE WITH BOTH OF
THESE FEATURES. THE WARM FRONT MAY BRING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY INTO
SISKIYOU AND MODOC COUNTIES, THEN THE CUTOFF WILL BRING THOSE
CHANCES MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA (EXCEPTING COOS/WESTERN DOUGLAS
AND NORTHERN LAKE COUNTIES). WHILE THESE CHANCES ARE SLIGHT, THE
POSSIBILITY OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS IS WORTH
CONSIDERING.
A SHORTWAVE RIDGE KEEPS ACTIVITY MINIMAL FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING, THEN A FOLLOWING TROUGH LOOKS TO BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF PRECIPITATION ON WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION WOULD BE FOCUSED
WEST OF AND ALONG THE CASCADES, WITH EAST SIDE AREAS GETTING LIGHTER
ACTIVITY. WITH SNOW LEVELS FORECAST TO DROP TO 4500-5000 FEET AND
STEADY ACTIVITY POSSIBLE OVER THE CASCADES, PERIODS OF ADVISORY-
LEVEL CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE FOR CASCADES PASSES. PROBABILISTIC
GUIDANCE FROM THE NBM SHOWS A WIDE RANGE, WITH 4 INCHES ON THE LOW
END OF THE FORECAST TO 12 INCHES AT THE HIGH END.
A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN COULD REMAIN IN PLACE, WITH LONG-TERM ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE SHOWING A QUIET PERIOD TO END NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF MORE
PRECIPITATION NEXT WEEKEND. -TAD
AVIATION...27/12Z TAFS
MID- AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO
MOVE OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHERN OREGON, BUT A STABLE
ATMOSPHERIC PATTERN WILL PREVENT ACTIVE WEATHER THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. FOG HAS BROUGHT IFR TO LIFR LEVELS TO NORTH BEND AND
ROSEBURG TERMINALS, WHICH LOOK TO STAY IN PLACE INTO LATER THIS
MORNING. ONCE THE FOG CLEARS, VFR LEVELS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
AREA INTO THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. -TAD
MARINE...UPDATED 200 AM PST FRIDAY, FEBRUARY 26, 2026
AREA
WATERS REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THIS MORNING. BREEZY NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON, COMBINING WITH INCREASING
NORTHWEST SWELL TO PRODUCE STEEP SEAS IN ALL WATERS THIS EVENING
THROUGH LATE SATURDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS IMPROVE LATE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY AS WINDS EASE, AND SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO 1 PM PST SATURDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
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