352
FXUS66 KMFR 030959
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
259 AM PDT SUN MAY 3 2026
DISCUSSION
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA CONTINUES
TO BRING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO THE REGION. RADAR ACTIVITY
IS FAIRLY MINIMAL THIS MORNING, WITH JUST A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
MOVING NORTHWARD INTO MODOC AND LAKE COUNTIES. MARINE STRATUS IS
LESS EXTENSIVE THIS MORNING COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS, STILL
BLANKETING THE MARINE WATERS AND IMMEDIATE COAST, BUT HAS ONLY
PUSHED INTO THE COQUILLE BASIN. EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE REGION
SHOULD KEEP THE MARINE LAYER FROM MAKING ANY FURTHER INLAND
PROGRESS THIS MORNING.
THE THUNDERSTORM PATTERN CONTINUES TODAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO WOBBLE SOUTHWARD TODAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
WEST, AMPLIFIES AND CLOSES OFF TO THE NORTH OF THIS LOW PRESSURE
FOR A BRIEF TIME TODAY. THIS UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BRING SOME
WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE WEST SIDE TODAY, MOST NOTABLY IN THE
UMPQUA BASIN WHERE AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE
MID 80S. THAT WON'T FEEL TOO MUCH DIFFERENT COMPARED TO RECENT
DAYS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEST SIDE, BUT IT WILL BE WARMER BY
A FEW DEGREES TODAY. REGARDING THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL TODAY, THE
OVERALL ATMOSPHERIC SET UP IS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY (-3 TO -5 LI,
1000-1500 J/KG CAPE). THE MAIN DIFFERENCE IS STORM MOTION WILL BE
EAST TO WEST TODAY INSTEAD OF SOUTH/SOUTHEAST TO NORTH/NORTHWEST.
THIS WILL SHIFT THE FOCUS OF HIGHEST CHANCES FOR LIGHTNING
(60-80%) TO SISKIYOU/JACKSON/JOSEPHINE COUNTIES WITH LOWER CHANCES
(30-50%) AS FAR NORTH AS ROSEBURG THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. ONCE
AGAIN, WE DON'T EXPECT ANY SEVERE WEATHER TODAY, BUT THERE COULD
BE A FEW STRONGER CELLS AT TIMES. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS, LIGHTNING, AND BRIEF DOWNPOURS DIRECTLY UNDER STORM
CORES.
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY, THE LOW IS FORECAST TO ELONGATE AND SHIFT
EASTWARD - MOVING ONSHORE INTO CALIFORNIA JUST SOUTH OF SF BAY
DURING THIS TIME. BY MONDAY, WE'LL BE DECIDEDLY ON THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE LOW WITH UPPER RIDGING TO THE NORTH AND MID-LEVEL
FLOW AROUND THE LOW FROM THE NORTHEAST. MOST AREAS WILL BE COOLER,
ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE CASCADES AFTER THE EXPECTED WARMTH OF TODAY,
BUT ALSO ACROSS NORCAL WHERE CLOUDS/SHOWERS WILL BE MOST PERSISTENT.
THERE'S STILL A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE CASCADES AND
EASTWARD, BUT THE BEST CHANCES SHIFT TO SOUTH OF THE OR/CA BORDER.
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE NORTH WILL WIN OUT AS
THE CLOSED LOW SETTLES INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND DESERT SOUTHWEST.
THIS WILL KEEP SHOWER/THUNDER CHANCES MOSTLY TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST,
AND BRING ANOTHER PERIOD OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. AFTERNOON
HIGHS WILL PEAK ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL (MID-UPPER 80S
WEST/UPPER 70S-LOW 80S EAST), FEELING MORE LIKE LATE JUNE THAN EARLY
MAY. SUBTLE COOLING IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY AS A WEAK TROUGH PASSES TO
THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE VAST MAJORITY OF ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE MAINTAINS DRY CONDITIONS WITH THIS TROUGH, THOUGH ABOUT 15%
OF THE SOLUTIONS BRING SOME LIGHT PRECIP TO THE REGION.
AVIATION...03/06Z TAFS
CONDITIONS ARE MAINLY VFR, BUT PATCHY
COASTAL IFR VISIBILITIES WILL PERSIST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS
EVENING. ALSO, SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH OVER DOUGLAS, NORTHERN KLAMATH,
LAKE, AND MODOC COUNTIES.
A WIND REVERSAL TO SOUTHERLY IS EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST OVERNIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING, WITH LOW CEILINGS AND/OR FOG SPREADING NORTH
ALONG THE COASTLINE AND INTO THE COASTAL VALLEYS, INCLUDING AT NORTH
BEND, THROUGH THE LATE MORNING, AROUND 18Z.
PATCHY MVFR WILL THEN LINGER AT THE COAST DURING SUNDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING, WHILE A MORE ACTIVE AFTERNOON AND EVENING OF
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
AREA.
MARINE...UPDATED 100 AM PDT SUNDAY, MAY 3, 2026.
NORTH WINDS
HAVE WEAKENED, BUT FRESH SWELL DOMINATED SEAS WILL REMAIN STEEP INTO
EARLY THIS MORNING. THE FRESH NORTH SWELL WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH LATER
TODAY INTO MONDAY, WHILE A LONGER PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL BUILDS AND
BECOMES DOMINANT. RELATIVELY QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
BEACH HAZARDS...UPDATED 100 AM PDT SUNDAY MAY 3, 2026
A SHORT
PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL AND A BUILDING LONG PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL
WILL COMBINE THEIR ENERGY AND MAY PRODUCE VERY LARGE WAVES WASHING
UP ON AREA BEACHES LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THE RISK
WILL BE HIGHEST AROUND SUNRISE THIS MORNING.
SNEAKER WAVES CAN RUN UP SIGNIFICANTLY FARTHER ON BEACHES THAN
NORMAL, INCLUDING OVER ROCKS AND JETTIES. THESE WAVES CAN SUDDENLY
KNOCK PEOPLE OFF OF THEIR FEET AND SWEEP THEM INTO THE OCEAN. THE
WAVES CAN ALSO MOVE LOGS OR OTHER OBJECTS WHICH COULD CRUSH OR TRAP
ANYONE CAUGHT UNDERNEATH. NEVER TURN AWAY FROM THE OCEAN!
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 11 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR ORZ021-
022.
CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM PDT EARLY
THIS MORNING FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
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