742
FXUS66 KMFR 132034
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
134 PM PDT MON APR 13 2026
SYNOPSIS
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING PRECIPITATION AND SNOW TO THE
HIGHER CASCADES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. MINOR TRAVEL
IMPACTS ARE ANTICIPATED ABOVE 4000 FEET. COLDER AIR WILL SETTLE
INTO THE VALLEYS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
A BAND OF SHOWERS HAS STARTED TO FILL IN THE RADAR MAINLY WEST OF
THE CASCADES THIS EARLY AFTERNOON. THESE SHOWERS WILL MOVE FARTHER
EAST INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THEY'RE LIKELY ENHANCED BY A SHORT WAVE
DIVING TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE RELATIVE CALM BEFORE THE STORM. IT LOOKS
LIKE THERE WILL BE LOTS OF CLOUDS STILL COVERING THE VALLEYS
OVERNIGHT, EXCEPT EAST OF THE CASCADES, WHICH WILL SEE POCKETS OF
CLEARING LATER TONIGHT. THEREFORE, KLAMATH FALLS COULD SEE SOME
FOG OR PERHAPS FREEZING FOG IN THE MORNING HOURS.
TUESDAY WILL BE MOSTLY QUIET UNTIL THE EVENING HOURS AS THIS NEXT
SYSTEM DESCENDS ON THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. A WELL DEFINED COLD
FRONT WILL PROGRESS THROUGH THE CASCADES AND OREGON DURING TUESDAY
NIGHT AND EVENTUALLY PASS COMPLETELY THROUGH BY WEDNESDAY EVENING.
THE MAIN IMPACTS HERE WILL BE SNOW IN THE CASCADES AND WE HAVE
WENT WITH A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ABOVE 4000 FEET TO COMMUNICATE
THIS THREAT. THE PROBABILITY FOR >12 INCHES OVER OUR 'POPULATED'
AREAS IN THE HIGH CASCADES IS ROUGHLY 50%. IN ADDITION, SOME
WARMER GROUND AND MELTING WHEN THE SNOW HITS THE GROUND COULD MEAN
THIS PROBABILITIES ARE A LITTLE HIGH. ALSO, THE EXTREME FORECAST
INDEX(EFI) CONTINUES TO POINT TOWARDS VALUES OF 0.8 TO 0.9, WHICH
DENOTES A STRONG SNOW EVENT FOR MID APRIL IN THE HIGH CASCADES.
ONCE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH, THE COLD AIR WILL SETTLE INTO THE
VALLEYS WITH SNOW LEVELS FALLING DOWN TO 1800 FEET ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL TREND LOWER ONCE THIS COLDER RELATIVELY
DRY AIR SETTLES INTO THE VALLEYS, ALTHOUGH THE NBM HAS A 40%
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DON'T BE SURPRISED TO SEE
SOME TRACE AMOUNTS OF SNOW ALONG THE COASTAL RANGE AND SOME OF
THE VALLEY EDGES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES
WILL ALSO THREATEN AGRICULTURAL OPERATIONS AS LOWS HOVER RIGHT
AROUND FREEZING. THE PROBABILITY OF SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN
MEDFORD IS ABOUT 40% WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
WE'LL SEE HIGHS IN THE MID 50'S ON THURSDAY WITH MID 40'S EAST OF
THE CASCADES. THIS COLD AIR IS UNUSUALLY, ALTHOUGH NOT THE
COLDEST WE CAN SEE THIS TIME OF YEAR. BASICALLY 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL FOR THE MIDDLE OF APRIL.
AGAIN, THE VALLEYS WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH FREEZING TEMPERATURES ON
THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL BE LESS SKY COVER, ESPECIALLY FARTHER
SOUTH NEAR THE CALIFORNIA AND OREGON BORDER. MOUNT SHASTA CITY IS
CURRENTLY FORECAST TO TIE THE RECORD MINIMUM TEMPERATURE OF 25
SET BACK IN 2018 ON THURSDAY NIGHT. MOST OTHER SITES WILL BE JUST
A TAD BIT TOO WARM TO BREAK A RECORD.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL LIKELY BE QUIET BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM
STRENGTHENS IN THE NORTH EASTERN PACIFIC OFF THE COAST OF
WASHINGTON. WE'LL LIKELY SEE A SHOT OF WARM MOIST AIR BEFORE SOME
COOLER AIR SETTLES IN AS THE LOW MOVES CLOSER TO SHORE. STILL MORE
DETAILS TO SORT OUT, BUT WE COULD SEE SOME MORE SNOW ADDED TO THE
MOUNTAINS WITH THIS NEXT EVENT AS WELL.
-SMITH
AVIATION (18Z TAFS)
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN MVFR (OR CLOSE TO IT) FOR THE
MAJORITY OF THIS CYCLE. LINGERING SHOWERS TODAY MAY INTERMITTENTLY
IMPACT THE TERMINALS WITH VERY LIGHT RAINFALL. A FRONTAL PASSAGE IS
EXPECTED TOMORROW WITH MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL, AND THIS WILL
LIKELY BE REFLECTED IN SUBSEQUENT TAF CYCLES. OTHERWISE, EXPECTING
GENERALLY LIGHT WIND SPEEDS THIS CYCLE, BUT KLMT MAY SEE OCCASIONAL
BREEZY CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON.
-GUERRERO
MARINE...UPDATED 100 PM PDT MONDAY, APRIL 13, 2026
SEAS
WILL STAY BELOW ADVISORY LEVEL STRENGTH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. A
FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY EVENING. THIS WILL RESULT
IN WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION, STRONG WINDS, AND STEEP SEAS STARTING
TUESDAY EVENING. LOCALIZED AREAS OF VERY STEEP AND HAZARDOUS SEAS
MAY BE POSSIBLE NORTH OF COOS BAY AS THE FRONT INITIALLY STARTS TO
TRANSITION OVER THE WATERS. STEEP SEAS WILL CONTINUE BEHIND THE
FRONT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A THERMAL TROUGH MAY BRING GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE OUTER WATERS AND SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO ON
FRIDAY. ANOTHER ACTIVE SYSTEM MAY BRING ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AND
STEEP SEAS THIS WEEKEND.
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM TUESDAY TO 5 AM PDT THURSDAY
FOR ORZ027.
CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
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