094  
FXUS66 KMFR 151035  
AFDMFR  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR  
335 AM PDT MON AUG 15 2022  
   
DISCUSSION
 
HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES OVER THE REGION WITH UNEVENTFUL  
WEATHER EXPECTED TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR-NORMAL OVER THE  
WEST SIDE WHILE EAST-SIDE READINGS CLIMB TO 4-8 DEGREES ABOVE  
NORMAL. A STRENGTHENING THERMAL TROUGH OVER THE SOUTH COAST WILL  
ALLOW FOR INCREASING NORTH WINDS OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS THROUGH  
AFTERNOON. TUESDAY THINGS WILL CHANGE WITH SOUTH FLOW ALOFT  
OVERTAKING THE REGION WITH SOME INCREASING MOISTURE AS THE CENTER  
OF THE UPPER HIGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN BUDGES WEST AND NORTH.  
TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE 3-5 DEGREES AREA-WIDE AND SOME  
THUNDERSTORMS MAY IMPACT MODOC COUNTY BY LATE AFTERNOON AND  
EVENING.  
 
INCREASING TEMPERATURES ARE STILL ON TAP FOR WEDNESDAY AS UPPER  
HEIGHTS INCREASE FURTHER. THE LATEST NBM FORECASTS AREN'T TOO  
DISSIMILAR FROM RECENT RUNS INDICATING THAT INTERIOR WEST SIDE  
AREAS, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE UMPQUA, WILL CLIMB WELL INTO THE  
TRIPLE DIGITS. THE MOST LIKELY NBM FORECAST IS ABOUT 105 FOR  
MEDFORD, WHILE THE UPPER QUARTER OF THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE  
INDICATING THAT HIGHS COULD HIT 107+ IN MEDFORD. A HEAT ADVISORY  
ISSUANCE IS LIKELY. THE WESTERN REGION HEAT RISK IMAGES INDICATE  
THAT JACKSON COUNTY, THE KLAMATH BASIN, AND AREAS FROM THE SHASTA  
VALLEY WESTWARD IN SISKIYOU COUNTY WILL BE THE STRONGEST  
CANDIDATES FOR THIS HIGHLIGHT. THE HEADLINE COULD PERSIST IN TO  
THURSDAY.  
 
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE NUMEROUS AND SPREAD  
NORTH AND WEST ON WEDNESDAY. SOUTH FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BRING IN  
APPRECIABLE MOISTURE SO ANY STORMS THAT BEGIN AS DRY SHOULD  
TRANSITION TO WEST. PRECIPITATABLE WATER VALUES LOOK TO INCREASE  
TO AROUND .80" OVER THE EAST AND UPWARDS OF 1" OVER THE WEST, SO  
HEAVY RAIN WILL ACTUALLY BE POSSIBLE DESPITE THE DEEP SUB-CLOUD  
DRY LAYER. WE SHOULD BE CONCERNED WITH GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WITH  
THIS SETUP, WITH AN "INVERTED-V" SOUNDING TYPE. THE DRY AND  
UNSTABLE LOWER ATMOSPHERIC LAYER, LIGHTNING POTENTIAL, AND GUSTY  
OUTFLOW WINDS SHOULD ALL BE OF HEIGHTENED CONCERN FOR FIRE WEATHER  
INTERESTS. SEE FIRE WEATHER PORTION AND HEADLINE BELOW. SOME  
THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES WERE INCREASED A BIT FOR SOUTHWEST  
OREGON AND NORTHWEST CA TO INCLUDE A MENTION, I.E. 15-20 PERCENT.  
 
STORMS MAY CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS THE  
ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN UNSTABLE WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.  
IN ADDITION, A SHORT WAVE MOVING UP FROM COASTAL NORTHERN CA WILL  
KEEP SOME DRIVING DYNAMICS IN PLAY SO THE TYPICAL DECREASE IN  
ACTIVITY DUE TO NOCTURNAL COOLING MAY NOT BE SUFFICIENT TO SETTLE  
THE ATMOSPHERE. DUE TO SOME RAIN WEDNESDAY AND INCREASED CLOUD  
COVER THURSDAY, SOME HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY MAY NOT GET AS  
WARM AS ANTICIPATED. WILL JUST HAVE TO ADJUST AS NECESSARY.  
 
FRIDAY-SATURDAY SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY DRY AND ONLY 4-8 DEGREES OR  
SO COOLER AS THE SHORT WAVE MOVES INLAND AND A STRONGER MARINE  
INFLUENCE AFFECTS THE COASTAL REGION. ANOTHER LOW OFF THE COAST  
IS A COMMON PICTURE IN THE LONGER RANGE FOR SUNDAY INTO NEXT  
MONDAY, AND THIS SHOULD USHER IN MORE SOUTH FLOW AND THUNDER  
POSSIBILITIES FOR SOME AREAS. STAVISH  
 

 
   
AVIATION...15/12Z TAFS
 
IFR/MVFR CEILINGS ARE IMPACTING PORTIONS  
OF THE COAST AND THE COASTAL WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING. SOME LIFR  
CEILINGS ARE ALSO PRESENT AT BROOKINGS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL  
PERSIST THROUGH MID-LATE MORNING, THEN BECOME VFR FOR SEVERAL HOURS  
THIS AFTERNOON. LOW CEILINGS AND/OR FOG WILL LIKELY RETURN AGAIN  
THIS EVENING, THEN PERSIST OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. VFR WILL  
PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OVER INLAND AREAS. -SPILDE  
 

 
   
MARINE...UPDATED 200 AM PDT MONDAY, 15 AUGUST, 2022
 
 
CONDITIONS HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT ARE EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY SOUTH  
OF CAPE BLANCO DUE TO GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND STEEP, WIND WAVE  
DOMINATED SEAS. BEGINNING LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, GALES  
AND VERY STEEP, HAZARDOUS SEAS ARE EXPECTED SOUTH OF GOLD BEACH WITH  
GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND STEEP SEAS SPREADING NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO.  
GUSTY WINDS AND STEEP TO VERY STEEP SEAS PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY,  
THEN ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER A BIT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THAT  
WILL PROBABLY BE SHORT-LIVED, HOWEVER, SINCE STRONGER NORTH WINDS  
MAY RETURN FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO.  
-SPILDE  
 

 
   
FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED 300 AM PDT MONDAY 15 AUGUST 2022
 
 
MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO FEED INTO THE REGION TUESDAY  
WITH INCREASING TEMPERATURES AND INSTABILITY. THIS WILL ISOLATED  
THUNDERSTORM TO THE MODOC AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IN  
ADDITION, GENERALLY DRY AND UNSTABLE LOWER ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS  
OVER THE EAST SIDE WILL RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE ACTIVITY FOR ANY EXISTING OR DEVELOPING FIRES.  
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST WIDESPREAD WEDNESDAY, MOST NUMEROUS  
FROM THE CASCADES EAST AND SISKIYOUS SOUTH, WITH SCATTERED  
COVERAGE FORECAST OVER HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF THE CASCADES. A  
SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION OF STORMS WAS ADDED TO SOME OF SOUTHWEST  
OREGON AND WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY WEDNESDAY DUE TO UNSTABLE  
CONDITIONS, INCREASING MOISTURE, AND SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW. THE  
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA SHOULD BE AWARE OF A POTENTIAL FOR INCREASING  
FIRE BEHAVIOR ACTIVITY POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE LIGHTNING  
CHANCES AND POTENTIAL FOR NEW FIRE STARTS, GUSTY AND ERRATIC  
OUTFLOW WINDS FROM THUNDERSTORMS, AND DRY AND UNSTABLE LOWER TO  
MID ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS (HAINES 6). THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY  
CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL BE ISOLATED  
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY FROM THE CASCADES EAST. STAVISH/SVEN  
 

 
   
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
OR...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY  
EVENING FOR ORZ624-625.  
 
CA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY  
EVENING FOR CAZ285.  
 
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM TUESDAY TO 11 PM PDT WEDNESDAY  
FOR PZZ350-370.  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ356-376.  
GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM TUESDAY TO 11 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR  
PZZ376.  
 

 
 
MTS/MTS/MAS  
 
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