137
FXUS66 KMFR 192027
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
127 PM PDT SUN APR 19 2026
DISCUSSION
KEY POINTS:
* ONLY MINOR IMPACTS EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
* WARM, ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND
* LOW PRESSURE ENTERS THE REGION SUNDAY
- PRECIP CHANCES START SUNDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY
- ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
- ADVISORY SNOWFALL FOR SISKIYOU COUNTY MON-TUES
* DRYING TREND TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK
FURTHER DETAILS:
A TRANSITION WILL OCCUR TODAY AS AN UPPER LOW STRENGTHENS OFF THE
COAST AND NUDGES TOWARDS THE COAST. THIS CUT-OFF LOW WILL MEANDER
OVER THE OCEAN/WEST COAST FOR A COUPLE DAYS BEFORE COMING INLAND
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
WE WILL SEE PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE TONIGHT ALONG/NEAR THE
COAST AND EVENTUALLY SPREADING WEST TO EAST THROUGH MIDWEEK. WE ARE
NOT SEEING A SIGNAL FOR HEAVY RAIN THROUGH THIS STRETCH, BUT RATHER
A CONSISTENT LIGHT RAIN FOR A FEW DAYS. RAINFALL TOTALS FOR 72 HOURS
ENDING THURSDAY CONTINUE TO SHOW VALUES AROUND 1.00"-1.50" FOR THE
HIGHER END AMOUNTS. HIGHEST AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED ALONG/NEAR THE
COAST AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. CASCADES COULD ALSO SEE THE HIGHER
AMOUNTS OF QPF BEFORE SWITCHING OVER TO SNOW. WESTSIDE VALLEYS AND
EASTSIDE AREAS WILL BE CONSIDERABLY LESS WITH 72 HOUR TOTALS ONLY
AROUND 0.25"-0.50". MUCAPE VALUES ON TUESDAY CONTINUE TO SHOW AROUND
200-500 J/KG, SO WE ARE EXPECTING AT LEAST SOME ISOLATED THUNDER.
MUCAPE ON WEDNESDAY IS ONLY AROUND A COUPLE HUNDRED J/KG SO LIKELY
LESS CHANCE FOR LIGHTNING. NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE WEATHER BUT
LIGHTNING AND OCCASIONAL STRONG GUSTS (30-45 MPH) WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THIS STRETCH.
SNOW LEVELS EVENTUALLY DROP MONDAY AFTERNOON AND FURTHER MORE
TUESDAY NIGHT FOR SNOW ACCUMULATION OVER THE CASCADES, EASTSIDE
AREAS, AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. AT THIS TIME, SNOW AMOUNTS NEAR THE
TRINITY ALPS IN SISKIYOU COUNTY WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY LATE MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL IMPACT MAINLY REMOTE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS.
BY THURSDAY, UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE ABSORBED BACK INTO THE MAIN
FLOW. A DRY NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BECOME EVIDENT OVER THE
FORECAST AREA. WHILE THE NBM HOLDS ONTO SPOTTY POPS THURSDAY ONWARD,
WE ARE ANTICIPATING PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO DWINDLE THURSDAY
THROUGH AT LEAST PARTS OF NEXT WEEKEND. MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE
EXTENDED COME TO FRUITION AROUND FRIDAY NIGHT, SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW
ON THE DETAILS SATURDAY ONWARD.
AVIATION (18Z TAFS)
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF TONIGHT WITH LOWERING
AND THICKENING CLOUDS AS LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE EDGES EASTWARD.
EXPECT GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY IN THE
SHASTA VALLEY AND OVER THE EAST SIDE. EVEN THE ROGUE VALLEY,
INCLUDING MEDFORD, WILL GET BREEZY. WIND SHEAR DOESN'T APPEAR TO
BE A HIGH RISK AT THIS TIME, BUT MOUNTAIN WAVE TURBULENCE IN
SISKIYOU COUNTY IS LIKELY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN LOW AT THE
COAST THROUGH TONIGHT, BUT SOME LIGHT RAIN AND LOWER CEILINGS
COULD IMPACT THE MARINE WATERS. EVENTUALLY, HIGHER RAIN CHANCES
AND LOWERING CEILINGS (TO MVFR) MOVE ONTO THE COAST EITHER LATE
TONIGHT OR MONDAY MORNING. WE EXPECT AN UPTICK IN WINDS AGAIN
LATER MONDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON FOR SIMILAR LOCATIONS
(SHASTA VALLEY, MEDFORD AND THE EAST SIDE). INCREASING SOUTHERLY
FLOW INTO SISKIYOU COUNTY, INCLUDING THE MT SHASTA REGION, WILL
CAUSE LOWERING CEILINGS (TO MVFR) THERE AS WELL MONDAY AFTERNOON
ALONG WITH RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW (ABOVE 5000 FEET).
PRECIPITATION WILL BE MORE SHOWERY NORTH OF THE SISKIYOUS.
-SPILDE
MARINE...UPDATED 100 PM PDT SUNDAY, APRIL 19, 2026
LOW PRESSURE
OFFSHORE WILL BRING A PERIOD OF ACTIVE WEATHER TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY, WITH PERIODS OF GUSTY SOUTH WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS/SWELL.
WINDS ARE LIKELY TO BE STRONGEST THROUGH MONDAY EVENING WITH A
PERIOD OF STEEP SEAS HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT MOSTLY BEYOND 10 NM
FROM SHORE. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TUESDAY AS THE LOW GRADUALLY
PUSHES INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THEN, INCREASING NW SWELL FOLLOWS
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH A RETURN OF NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS.
-SPILDE
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...NONE.
CA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 AM MONDAY TO 11 AM PDT TUESDAY
FOR CAZ080>082.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 6 PM PDT MONDAY FOR CAZ081.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT MONDAY
FOR PZZ370-376.
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