235  
FXUS66 KMFR 261132  
AFDMFR  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR  
432 AM PDT TUE MAR 26 2019  
   
DISCUSSION
 
REMNANT SHOWERS OF THE EXITING COLD FRONT ARE  
BRINGING SNOW TO PORTIONS OF THE FAR EAST SIDE AT THIS TIME. THE  
REMNANTS OF THIS DISSIPATING FRONT WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT  
STATIONARY AND GET PULLED INTO THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT MOVES IN  
TONIGHT. THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL SWING IN OFF A DEEP LOW WELL  
OFFSHORE OF CAPE BLANCO.  
 
THE REMNANTS OF THE DISSIPATED STALLED FRONT WILL BE PULLED BACK  
TO THE NORTHWEST AND JOIN WITH THE WARM FRONTAL SHEILD TUESDAY  
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. AS WE HEAD FURTHER INTO WEDNESDAY  
AFTERNOON THE WARM FRONT AND THE TRIPLE POINT OF THE EDGE OF THE  
OCCLUDED FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. WITH WINDS INCREASING  
WITH TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE MT SHASTA AREA THE  
HIGHEST PRECIP RATES WILL BE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY  
MORNING, BUT THIS TIME SNOW LEVELS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY ABOVE 4500  
FEET, BUT COULD DROP BRIEFLY TO AROUND 3500 FEET FOR SHORT  
PERIODS DURING THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION PERIODS.  
 
THERE IS SOME ELEVATED INSTABLITY FROM THE CASCADES EASTWARD, AND  
THE BIGGEST CONCERN IS CLOUD COVER INHIBITING WARMING AT THE  
SURFACE. HOWEVER, THIS INHIBITING FACTOR IS COUNTERED BY THE  
ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND THE STRONG SHORT WAVE THAT MOVES THROUGH  
ALONG WITH THE FRONT, SO HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE IN THIS AREA.  
 
FROM HERE THINGS ARE LESS TRADITIONALLY DEFINED AS FRONTS AS THE  
APPROACHING GUMBALL MACHINE LOW APPROACHES THE COAST AND  
DISPENSES WAVE AFTER WAVE OF PRECIP THROUGH THE REGION INTO  
FRIDAY MORNING. ONCE AGAIN THERE IS INSTABILITY FROM THE CASCADES  
EASTWARD THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE SAME PROS AND CONS, BUT MORE  
UNSTABLE ELEVATED INSTABILITY, AND ALSO ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE OF  
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  
 

 
   
AVIATION...FOR THE 26/12Z TAFS
 
CONDITIONS ARE MAINLY VFR, BUT  
THERE ARE PATCHES OF IFR AND MVFR DUE TO BOTH VALLEY STRATUS AND A  
FEW SNOW SHOWERS THAT ARE LINGERING EAST OF THE CASCADES EARLY THIS  
MORNING. SHOWERS WILL BE AT A MINIMUM BY MID-MORNING WITH VFR LIKELY.  
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS RETURN THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY OVER THE  
HIGHER TERRAIN AND IN SOUTHERN SISKIYOU COUNTY. CONDITIONS WILL  
REMAIN MAINLY VFR, BUT THIS WILL LOWER CIGS/VSBYS IN THE VICINITY OF  
SHOWERS AND PRODUCE LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION. -DW  
 

 
   
MARINE...UPDATED 300 AM PDT TUESDAY 26 MARCH 2019
 
 
HIGH AND STEEP SEAS WILL PERSIST EARLY THIS MORNING. WEAK HIGH  
PRESSURE WILL BRING IMPROVING CONDITIONS INTO THIS EVENING. ANOTHER  
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY, AND LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER  
THE WATERS INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PRODUCE RAIN WITH ANOTHER  
ROUND OF STRONGER SOUTHERLY WINDS AND STEEP TO VERY STEEP SEAS THAT  
WILL PERSIST INTO FRIDAY MORNING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD  
FRIDAY, THEN WEAKEN SATURDAY, WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS  
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. -DW  
 

 
   
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
OR...NONE.  
 
CA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING  
ABOVE 4500 FEET IN THE FOR CAZ080-082-083.  
 
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM PDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR  
PZZ350-356.  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM PDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR  
PZZ370-376.  
 

 
 
SBN/SBN/SBN  
 
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