147
FXUS66 KMFR 121321
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
521 AM PST MON JAN 12 2026
DISCUSSION
OUR CURRENT PATTERN, WITH SLIGHT VARIATIONS, WILL
PERSIST FOR THE NEXT WEEK.
THE MAIN UPDATE THIS MORNING WAS TO ADD THE SCOTT VALLEY TO THE
FREEZING FOG ADVISORY. THE ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
ROGUE, APPLEGATE, AND ILLINOIS VALLEYS...ALSO, FOR THE KLAMATH
BASIN. THE FREEZING FOG COULD PRODUCE SLICK ROADS AND WALKWAYS,
BUT MAINLY WILL PRODUCE PATCHES OF VERY LOW VISIBILITY. FOG IS
ALSO PRESENT IN THE UMPQUA VALLEY, AND KLAMATH VALLEY OF WESTERN
SISKIYOU COUNTY.
THE OTHER SHORT TERM ITEMS OF CONCERN ARE A MODERATE SNEAKER WAVE
THREAT AT BEACHES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, AND A STAGNANT AIR MASS
REDUCING AIR QUALITY IN VALLEYS THIS WEEK.
WHILE IT IS NOT THAT UNUSUAL TO HAVE A RIDGE PERSIST FOR A
LENGTHY PERIOD OF TIME IN THE WINTER, THE DURATION OF THIS EPISODE IS
ON THE LONGER SIDE, AND THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE IS PARTICULARLY
UNUSUAL (EXCEEDING THE 95TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR).
THE STABLE AIR MASS WITH LONG DAILY DURATION OF VALLEY STRATUS HAS
LIMITED HIGH TEMPERATURES IN MUCH OF THE ROGUE, UMPQUA, ILLINOIS,
APPLEGATE, SHASTA, AND KLAMATH VALLEYS. THE RIDGE LOOKS TO REACH A
PEAK OF STRENGTH ON WEDNESDAY WITH OUR FOG-FREE AREAS SEEING THE
VERY WIDE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGES BETWEEN FRIGID MORNING LOWS
AND UNUSUALLY WARM AFTERNOON HIGHS REACHING A PEAK. THIS INCLUDES
THE COAST WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. BROOKINGS WILL BE AN EXCEPTION ON WEDNESDAY, THURSDAY, AND
LIKELY FRIDAY WITH DOWNSLOPE WARMING INTO THE UPPER 60S OR
POSSIBLY LOWER 70S EXPECTED.
OUR PATTERN MAY FINALLY CHANGE, AS EARLY AS DAY 8/NEXT TUESDAY,
BUT MORE LIKELY AFTER DAY 10/NEXT THURSDAY.
AVIATION...12/12Z TAFS
VALLEY FOG AND FREEZING FOG ARE EXPECTED
THIS MORNING FOR MANY AREA VALLEYS WEST OF THE CASCADES AND IN
PORTIONS OF THE KLAMATH BASIN. THIS INCLUDES THE ROGUE VALLEY,
ILLINOIS VALLEY, UMPQUA VALLEY, AND SCOTT VALLEY. FOG MAY BE DENSE,
ESPECIALLY IN THE EARLY MORNING. AT MEDFORD, EXPECT LIFR CONDITIONS
TO PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING, LIFTING AND DISSIPATING IN THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. SIMILARLY, EXPECT LIFR IN FOG TO PERSIST AT ROSEBURG
THROUGH AROUND NOON/20Z, BEFORE LIFTING AND CLEARING IN THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE THAT KLAMATH FALLS WILL SEE LIFR
AROUND SUNRISE. THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST WITH CONDITIONS
DETERIORATING TO LIFR IN THE SAME VALLEYS AGAIN LATE IN THE EVENING
INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
ELSEWHERE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
MARINE...UPDATED 230 AM PST MONDAY, JANUARY 12, 2026
STEEP
SEAS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT WITH A LONG PERIOD WEST SWELL
REMAINING NEAR OR AT A PEAK INTO THIS EVENING. SOUTH WINDS GRADUALLY
BECOME NORTHERLY TODAY INTO TUESDAY.
CONDITIONS BRIEFLY IMPROVE TUESDAY WITH SEAS LOWERING TO BELOW 10 FT
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AND REACHING A MINIMUM AT AROUND 7 TO 8 FT ON
TUESDAY EVENING. ANOTHER LONG PERIOD SWELL (PEAKING AROUND 10 TO 12
FT AT 15 SECONDS) BUILDS INTO THE WATERS EARLY WEDNESDAY, SO SEAS
WILL REMAIN SWELL DOMINATED THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE,
NORTHERLY WINDS INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY AS THE PATTERN TRANSITIONS TO
A SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN UNDER A THERMAL TROUGH THAT LINGERS THROUGH
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. SWELL GRADUALLY SUBSIDES THURSDAY
NIGHT, BUT SEAS TRANSITION TO WIND WAVE DOMINATED SEAS UNDER GUSTY
NORTH WINDS. THE OUTLOOK IS FOR CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE FRIDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
BEACH HAZARDS...UPDATED 215 AM PST MONDAY, JANUARY 12, 2026
LONG
PERIOD SWELL WILL REMAIN NEAR A PEAK TODAY, CONTINUING A MODERATE
RISK OF SNEAKER WAVES. THIS HIGHER PERIOD SWELL WILL DIMINISH THIS
EVENING. GUIDANCE SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER SNEAKER WAVE
THREAT BEGINNING LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND PERSISTING THROUGH THE DAY
WEDNESDAY.
IF YOU PLAN TO VISIT AREA BEACHES TODAY OR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY, PLEASE BE AWARE OF THE DANGERS SNEAKER WAVES POSE TO
BEACH GOERS. SNEAKER WAVES CAN RUN UP SIGNIFICANTLY FARTHER ON
BEACHES THAN NORMAL, INCLUDING OVER ROCKS AND JETTIES. THESE WAVES
CAN SUDDENLY KNOCK PEOPLE OFF OF THEIR FEET AND SWEEP THEM INTO THE
OCEAN. THE WAVES CAN ALSO MOVE LOGS OR OTHER OBJECTS WHICH COULD
CRUSH OR TRAP ANYONE CAUGHT UNDERNEATH. WHILE SNEAKER WAVES CAN
OCCUR AT ANY TIME, THE GREATEST RISK IS ON AN INCOMING TIDE. PLEASE
BE AWARE OF THE TIDES IF VENTURING OUT ONTO THE BEACHES. NEVER TURN
YOUR BACK ON THE OCEAN! /BR-Y/HERMANSEN
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...FREEZING FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR ORZ024-
026-029.
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR ORZ021-022.
AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST FRIDAY FOR ORZ023-024-026-
029>031.
CA...FREEZING FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR CAZ080.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST TUESDAY
FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
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