216
FXUS66 KMFR 061430
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
630 AM PST FRI FEB 6 2026
DISCUSSION
KEY POINTS:
1) SLIGHT COOLING TODAY WILL BE THE START OF A COOLING TREND. BUT,
CONDITIONS TODAY WILL LARGELY RESEMBLE THOSE OF THE PAST FEW
DAYS. THIS INCLUDES AREAS OF VALLEY FOG, MAINLY WEST AND NORTH OF
JACKSON COUNTY, THAT WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE DURING THE MORNING
AND RETURN AGAIN LATE THIS EVENING INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
2) AN HONEST TO GOODNESS COLD FRONT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AT THE
COAST SATURDAY MORNING AND RAIN (OF AROUND 0.10 TO 0.20 INCHES) FOR
THE COAST AND COAST RANGE DURING SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
3) A DEVELOPING SHORTWAVE ALONG THE SLOW-MOVING COLD
FRONT WILL BRING ENHANCED RAINFALL AT THE COAST SATURDAY NIGHT,
GRADUALLY SPREADING INTO THE CENTRAL UMPQUA VALLEY, INCLUDING
ROSEBURG. ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS OF UP TO 0.75 INCHES FOR THE COAST,
WITH UP TO 0.25 INCHES (MAINLY LATE) FOR CENTRAL DOUGLAS COUNTY.
4) SNOW LEVELS REMAIN ABOVE 6500 FEET ON SUNDAY WITH PRECIPITATION
SPREADING TO THE CASCADES AND NORTHERN KLAMATH COUNTY (LIGHTEST
AMOUNTS IN THE SHASTA VALLEY). THIS INCLUDES A FOCUS FOR RAIN FROM
THE COAST TO THE INTERSTATE 5 CORRIDOR, WITH INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES FOR THE ROGUE VALLEY, PARTICULARLY FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
5) HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION FOR THE CASCADES FROM LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING, PRODUCING SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW.
BUT, WITH THE BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY IN THE HIGH COUNTRY,
OCCURRING ABOVE THE MAJOR PASSES AS SNOW LEVELS FALL FROM 7000
FEET TO AROUND 5000 FEET IN SOUTHERN OREGON. THIS WILL INCLUDE A
FEW INCHES OF SNOW IN THE MOUNT SHASTA REGION ABOVE 5500 TO 6000
FEET.
6) THE FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION SHIFTS EAST OF THE COAST DURING
SUNDAY EVENING WITH LIGHT RAIN ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EAST OF
THE CASCADES. A FEW POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS/SNOW SHOWERS COULD
LINGER NEAR THE COAST, CASCADES, AND WARNER MOUNTAINS LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. SNOW LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW AS LOW AS 4500 FEET LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT (INCLUDING LAKE OF THE WOODS, NORTHERN KLAMATH
COUNTY, AND EAST SIDE PASSES). WHEN ALL IS SAID AND DONE, 1.50 TO
2.50 INCHES OF RAIN IS FORECAST FOR THE COAST, 0.25 TO 1.50
INCHES FOR WEST SIDE VALLEYS (WITH LOWEST AMOUNTS FOR THE ROGUE
AND SHASTA VALLEYS), AROUND 0.50 TO 1.50 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION
FOR THE CASCADES (INITIALLY/PARTIALLY AS RAIN BEFORE 3 TO 8
INCHES OF SNOW FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN INCLUDING CRATER LAKE), AND
0.15 TO 0.75 INCHES FOR THE EAST SIDE.
7) A BREAK FOR MOST (THE REMAINDER) OF MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT
WITH AREAS OF MAINLY WEST SIDE VALLEY FOG DEVELOPING MONDAY NIGHT.
8) THE NEXT TROUGH MOST LIKELY TRACKING EASTWARD INTO NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH CLOSE TO
HALF OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOWING AT LEAST A BRUSH OF ITS NORTHERN
EDGE TO BRING MEASUREABLE PRECIPITATION TO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
SISKIYOU AND MODOC COUNTIES. THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY IS FOR
RIDGING BETWEEN TROUGHS TO PROVIDE A DRY BREAK FOR ALL OF OUR AREA
AROUND WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
9) UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TRACK AND TIMING OF A BROADER UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PACIFIC LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS
COULD BE A RELATIVELY WEAK SYSTEM WITH A HIGH PROBABILITY OF
MEASUREABLE PRECIPITATION AROUND FRIDAY, AND SNOW LEVELS AROUND
4000 TO 5000 FEET.
AVIATION...06/12Z TAFS
CONDITIONS WILL MOSTLY REMAIN VFR THIS
MORNING, WITH VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF HIGH CLOUDS. BUT, LIFR VALLEY FOG
HAS DEVELOPED IN THE UMPQUA, COQUILLE, ILLINOIS, AND UPPER ROGUE
VALLEYS. THIS INCLUDES ROSEBURG AND GRANTS PASS. THIS LIFR IS
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE DURING THE MORNING, WITH VFR BY THE AFTERNOON.
THE HIGH CLOUDS WILL THEN EXIT OUR AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. A VERY
SIMILAR SCENARIO OF MAINLY WESTSIDE VALLEY LIFR FOG IS EXPECTED
LATE THIS EVENING INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE AT THE COAST SATURDAY MORNING,
AHEAD OF LOWER CLOUDS AND RAIN ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
MARINE...UPDATED 200 AM PST FRIDAY, FEBRUARY 6, 2026
STEEP WEST
SWELL WILL PERSIST TODAY, THEN SOUTH WINDS INCREASE TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY WITH THE APPROACH AND ARRIVAL OF A COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT
WILL LINGER AND STRENGTHEN ON SUNDAY, CONTINUING TO PRODUCE GUSTY
SOUTH WINDS, STEEP SEAS, AND LOW VISIBILITY CONDITIONS IN RAIN.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
BUT, STEEP SEAS MAY PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. IMPROVING
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO FOLLOW TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
BEACH HAZARDS
AN INCOMING WEST TO SOUTHWEST LONG PERIOD
SWELL WILL PRODUCE A MODERATE RISK FOR SNEAKER WAVES ALONG THE
SOUTHERN OREGON COAST THROUGH THIS EVENING, WITH THE HIGHEST RISK
EARLY THIS MORNING, AND SECONDARILY WITH THE INCOMING HIGH TIDE THIS
AFTERNOON. THE NEXT HIGH TIDE WILL OCCUR ROUGHLY AROUND 2 TO 3 PM
PST. THE THREAT, WHILE MODERATE, SHOULD BE EMPHASIZED DUE TO THE
PLEASANT AND WARMER THAN NORMAL WEATHER.
SNEAKER WAVES CAN RUN UP SIGNIFICANTLY FARTHER UP BEACHES THAN
NORMAL, INCLUDING OVER ROCKS AND JETTIES. THESE WAVES CAN SUDDENLY
KNOCK PEOPLE OFF OF THEIR FEET AND SWEEP THEM INTO THE OCEAN. THE
WAVES CAN ALSO MOVE LOGS OR OTHER OBJECTS WHICH COULD CRUSH OR TRAP
ANYONE CAUGHT UNDERNEATH.
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR ORZ021-022.
CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST SUNDAY
FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
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