671
FXUS66 KMFR 091156
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
456 AM PDT SAT MAY 9 2026
DISCUSSION
KEY POINTS:
* RIDGING RETURNS TODAY, BRINGING THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF THIS
WEEK (MID-/UPPER 80S IN ROGUE VALLEY)
* ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST (70S/80S)
* AFTER A SLIGHT COOLDOWN SUNDAY, ANOTHER WARMUP ARRIVES EARLY NEXT
WEEK
* DRY/BREEZY CONDITIONS SUNDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING (WEST OF CASCADES:
NW/N, EAST OF CASCADES: W)
* NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION: MID-WEEK, MORE MODEL DISAGREEMENT
SATELLITE SHOWS HIGHER CLOUDS PASSING THROUGH SOUTHERN OREGON AND
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING. MARINE STRATUS IS DEVELOPING THIS
MORNING AT THE COAST AND IN THE COQUILLE VALLEY, BUT THIS WILL BE
MONITORED AS THE CLOUD COVER MAY HELP SLOW THIS DEVELOPMENT. THIS
STRATUS COULD EXPAND TO THE UMPQUA BASIN AS WELL.
RIDGING QUICKLY RETURNS TO START THE WEEKEND, AND THIS WILL BRING
THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF THIS WEEK TODAY. MOST INLAND LOCATIONS
WILL SEE 70S OR 80S TODAY, AND THE COAST WILL REACH THE LOW 70S.
UPPER 80S/LOW 90S ARE FORECAST FOR THE ROGUE, SCOTT AND KLAMATH
RIVER VALLEYS THIS AFTERNOON. THE LATEST RECORD FOR MAY 9 IS 95
DEGREES (1936) FOR MEDFORD AND 90 DEGREES (1906) FOR KLAMATH FALLS,
AND THE FORECAST HIGHS ARE A FEW DEGREES SHY OF THESE. NONETHELESS,
PRECAUTIONS NEED TO BE MADE WHEN HEADING OUTDOORS INCLUDING STAYING
HYDRATED AND IN THE SHADE WHEN POSSIBLE. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
ARE FORECAST TO DROP TO THE 10-20% RANGE THIS AFTERNOON EAST OF THE
CASCADES.
THE RIDGE WILL MOVE EASTWARD SUNDAY. EAST SIDE TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SIMILAR TO SATURDAY TEMPERATURES WHILE WEST SIDE DROPS 5-10 DEGREES.
RHS EAST OF THE CASCADES WILL DROP TO THE TEENS AND LOW 20S IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH W/NW WINDS PEAKING AROUND 12-17 MPH. THE COAST WILL
ALSO SEE STRONGER WINDS NEAR 10-15 MPH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
RIDGING WILL BUILD AGAIN MONDAY, BRINGING TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR
THE HIGHS WE'LL HAVE TODAY. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO HAVE A TYPICAL
AFTERNOON PEAK, AND MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL BE IN THE 15-25% RANGE
EAST OF THE CASCADES AND NEAR 20-30% FOR PORTIONS OF THE ROGUE
VALLEY.
TUESDAY AND BEYOND: HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS INTO TUESDAY WITH SOME
MORE HINTS THAT ANOTHER THERMAL TROUGH WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION.
HIGHS WILL BE PUSHING INTO THE LOWER 90'S IN MANY LOCATION WITH THE
NBM FORECASTING 91 DEGREES HERE IN MEDFORD ON TUESDAY. AS A
REMINDER, OUR NORMAL HIGH THIS TIME OF YEAR IS 73, SO A SOLID 15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR FOR THE HIGH TEMPERATURE.
BY WEDNESDAY, THE FORECAST BEGINS TO DIVERGE WITH 40% OF ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS BRINGING PRECIPITATION INTO OREGON WITH A HIGHER FOCUS ON
NORTHERN OREGON. MEANWHILE, ANOTHER 40% JUST KEEP THINGS PLAIN OLD
DRY WITH SOME SHOWERS OR PERHAPS THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN THE
AFTERNOON OR EVENING. THE SYNOPTIC PATTERNS ARE QUITE DIFFERENT AND
SHOW FRANKLY TWO COMPLETELY DIFFERENT SCENARIOS IN BOTH THE
DETERMINISTIC GFS AND ECMWF. THE GFS SHOWS A CUTOFF LOW OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COASTLINE, WHICH POINTS TO THE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.
THE ECMWF SHOWS A SHORTWAVE BRINGING A WELL DEFINED COLD FRONT INTO
THE OREGON COASTLINE ON WEDNESDAY, WHICH WOULD LEAD TO SOME LIGHTER
PRECIPITATION AND SNOW LEVELS BRIEFLY FALLING TO 5500 FEET. OVERALL,
A LOT TO SILL SORT OUT ON WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND!
-SMITH
AVIATION...09/12Z TAFS
CONDITIONS ARE VFR IN MOST LOCATIONS.
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE NEAR THE COAST AND IN THE COQUILLE VALLEY
THIS MORNING, BUT HEAVY CLOUD COVER IS COMING FROM THE WEST, AND
THIS IS FORECAST TO HELP THESE CONDITIONS NOT SPREAD TO THE UMPQUA
BASIN. LOW CLOUDS WILL BURN OFF IN THE LATE MORNING WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AREAWIDE.
MARINE...UPDATED 300 AM PDT SATURDAY, MAY 8, 2026
SUB-ADVISORY
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST TODAY. NORTH WINDS AND WESTERLY SWELL
INCREASE SLIGHTLY TODAY, WHICH COULD BRING SOME ISOLATED AREAS OF
STEEP SEAS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO. A THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPS LATER
THIS WEEKEND, BRINGING INCREASING NORTH WINDS AND WIND DRIVEN STEEP
SEAS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO THAT ARE LIKELY TO SPREAD NORTH BY MONDAY.
STEEP SEAS LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH MID-WEEK.
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 11 PM PDT
SUNDAY FOR PZZ356-376.
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