073
FXUS66 KMFR 261114
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
314 AM PST MON JAN 26 2026
DISCUSSION
A TRANSIENT UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING BY TO THE NORTH
OF THE AREA TODAY, AND, OTHER THAN SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS, WILL LARGELY GO UNNOTICED. WE'RE NOT EXPECTING ANY
PRECIPITATION AND AFTER A CHILLY START THIS MORNING, WE'LL HAVE
ANOTHER MILDER AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS LARGELY IN THE 50S WEST OF THE
CASCADES AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S OVER THE EAST SIDE. SUNSHINE
WILL BE DIMMED BY THE CLOUDS, HOWEVER.
THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS FOLLOWING TODAY'S TROUGH WILL MOVE IN
QUICKLY TONIGHT AND THEN SHIFT EAST OF THE CASCADES ON TUESDAY.
THIS WILL OPEN THE DOOR FOR THE FIRST DECENT PACIFIC FRONT TO
ARRIVE INTO THE AREA IN MORE THAN 2 WEEKS! THIS SYSTEM PACKS SOME
DECENT 925-850MB WINDS AND WILL SUPPORT A BAND OF RAIN THAT WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL WATERS LATE TUESDAY MORNING/EARLY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON, AND THEN MOVE ONSHORE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
GALE FORCE WINDS AND VERY STEEP SEAS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT OVER
THE MARINE WATERS. THERE WILL ALSO BE GUSTY SOUTH WINDS ALONG THE
COAST, BUT WE DON'T THINK THEY'LL BE HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT A
HIGH WIND WARNING. MODEL PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE ONLY -4 TO -6 MB
KOTH-KACV AND WHILE THAT SUPPORTS PEAK WIND GUSTS AT THE COASTAL
HEADLANDS OF 45-55 MPH, THAT'S NOT QUITE THERE FOR A WARNING.
FARTHER INLAND, THE USUAL SUSPECTS WILL GET BREEZY TO WINDY ON
TUESDAY (ESP SHASTA VALLEY). MODEL WIND FIELDS ARE SHOWING
POTENTIAL FOR SSE WIND GUSTS IN THE 45-50 MPH RANGE AT WEED.
THEREFORE, WE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY THERE FOR MOST OF TUESDAY AND
INTO TUESDAY EVENING. THE FRONT WILL LOSE ITS PUNCH AS IT MOVES
INLAND, SO WHILE WE STAND A GOOD CHANCE (~60-70%) OF AT LEAST
SEEING A LITTLE RAINFALL HERE IN THE ROGUE VALLEY, MODEL GUIDANCE
IS GENERALLY SHOWING LESS THAN 0.10 OF AN INCH. WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF THE ILLINOIS VALLEY, SOME OF THE DRIEST MODELS HAVE THE PRECIP
COMPLETELY SKIPPING OVER THE WEST WIDE VALLEYS. THE COAST WILL
GET THE MOST WITH 0.25-0.50 OF AN INCH AND LOCALLY UP TO 1.00
INCH IN THE CURRY COAST RANGE MOUNTAINS. EAST SIDE AREAS LARGELY
MISS OUT ON THE RAIN, BUT THERE IS ABOUT A 30% CHANCE OF LIGHT
RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT. SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE CASCADES/SISKIYOUS WILL BE
MINIMAL, GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS.
A SHORTWAVE UPPER RIDGE WILL SWING THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY WITH
SURFACE RIDGING OVER NE CALIFORNIA. THIS SHOULD BRING DRY WEATHER
AGAIN TO MOST OF THE CWA, BUT THERE'S A CHANCE OF RAIN ALONG THE
COAST AND IN THE CASCADES NORTH OF HIGHWAY 140 AS A WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTHWARD OFFSHORE. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING TO THE
EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT, ONSHORE FLOW COULD ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY BETTER
PRECIP CHANCES ALONG THE COAST INTO THURSDAY MORNING. BUT, THIS
WILL ALL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AGAIN AS THE UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES
NEAR AND EAST OF THE CASCADES INTO IDAHO THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE MOSTLY PARALLEL TO
THE FRONTAL SYSTEM OFFSHORE AND THIS WILL DIRECT MOST OF THE
PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THAT TO OUR NORTH. STILL, IT WILL KEEP
CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS ALONG THE COAST LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND.
AVIATION...26/12Z TAFS
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS
KEEPING FOG FROM FORMING IN MOST PLACES EARLY THIS MORNING.
PATCHY FOG COULD STILL DEVELOP AROUND SUNRISE, BUT IT SHOULD BE
SHORT-LIVED. OTHERWISE, EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD FOR ALL
TAF SITES.
MARINE...UPDATED 300 AM PST MONDAY, JANUARY 26, 2026
SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE TODAY BUT WINDS AND SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. SOUTH WINDS WILL
INCREASE FURTHER AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TONIGHT, THEN EVEN MORESO
ON TUESDAY. RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING PRETTY SOLID
PROBABILITIES OF GALES FOR MOST OF THE MARINE WATERS ON TUESDAY,
SO WE DECIDED TO UPGRADE THE HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCH TO A GALE
WARNING. CONDITIONS PEAK ON TUESDAY WITH GALES AND VERY STEEP
HAZARDOUS SEAS, THEN WINDS LOWER TUESDAY NIGHT. LONGER PERIOD
WEST SWELL IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE WATERS LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY, PEAKING AT AROUND 13 TO 17 FT AT 15 SECONDS.
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...CA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM PST TUESDAY FOR CAZ081.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM PST
TUESDAY FOR PZZ350-356.
GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 10 PM PST TUESDAY FOR PZZ350-356.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM PST TUESDAY
FOR PZZ370-376.
GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 10 PM PST TUESDAY FOR PZZ370-376.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page