850
FXUS66 KMFR 091149
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
449 AM PDT TUE JUN 9 2026
DISCUSSION
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.
AVIATION...09/12Z TAFS
A MIX OF MVFR/VFR PREVAILS ACROSS THE
REGION THIS MORNING WITH MVFR MOST PREVALENT NEAR AND WEST OF THE
CASCADES ALONG WITH WIDESPREAD TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS. LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE LINGERING THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO DRY CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON. VFR WILL LIKELY PREVAIL AFTER 18Z TODAY, THOUGH SOME
BROKEN CEILINGS (PERHAPS LOCALLY MVFR) WILL PERSIST ALONG THE COAST
AND INTO DOUGLAS COUNTY. BREEZY TO GUSTY NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS
DEVELOP IN THE ROGUE/SHASTA VALLEYS AND ALSO EAST OF THE CASCADES
THIS AFTERNOON, LASTING UNTIL AROUND 04-06Z. VFR PREVAILS TONIGHT,
WITH PATCHY MVFR CEILINGS ALONG THE COAST AND LOWER UMPQUA BASIN.
-SPILDE
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 352 AM PDT TUE JUN 9 2026/
KEY MESSAGES...
* THINGS BEGIN TO DRY OUT TODAY. LINGERING CLOUDS AND STILL SOME
LIGHT RAIN NEAR THE CASCADES/WEST SIDE FOOTHILLS/COAST THIS
MORNING, WILL YIELD TO SOME SUNSHINE FOR MOST THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGHS STILL ABOUT 5-10F BELOW NORMAL.
* HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT. COLD EAST OF THE CASCADES WITH
WIDESPREAD FROST AND FREEZING CONDITIONS.
* BECOMING SUNNY ALL AREAS WEDNESDAY WITH SEASONABLE AFTERNOON
HIGH TEMPERATURES.
* TURNING MUCH WARMER TO END THE WEEK WITH HIGHS GETTING BACK TO
WELL ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. BROOKINGS LIKELY GETS WARM TOO (HIGHS
IN THE 80S) WITH DRYING NE OFFSHORE WINDS CHANNELING DOWN THE
CHETCO.
* HEAT PEAKS OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION...THE UPPER TROUGH THAT BROUGHT THE CLOUDS AND RAIN TO
THE AREA YESTERDAY WILL HEAD INTO ID/MT TODAY. WE'LL REMAIN IN
WNW ONSHORE FLOW BEHIND IT, SO THERE'S STILL QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD
COVER OUT THERE THIS MORNING, AND ALSO SOME LIGHT RAIN. KMAX (AS
OF 230 AM) WAS SHOWING THE BEST RETURNS NEAR THE CASCADES AND OVER
THE CASCADE FOOTHILLS (STEAMBOAT/TOKETEE TO TILLER), BUT THERE
COULD BE SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN ANYWHERE FROM THERE WESTWARD.
COASTAL AREAS PROBABLY HAVE SOME FOGGY/DRIZZLY SPOTS THIS MORNING.
PRECIP CHANCES DRY UP THIS AFTERNOON AS HEIGHTS RISE. SKIES
SHOULD BECOME SUNNY IN MOST LOCATIONS, BUT SOME CLOUDS COULD
LINGER ALONG THE COAST AND IN PARTS OF DOUGLAS COUNTY. OVERALL,
HIGH TEMPS WILL STILL BE COOL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, BUT MILDER
THAN YESTERDAY (ABOUT 5-10F BELOW NORMAL).
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN TONIGHT, WE EXPECT IT TO GET COLD
EAST OF THE CASCADES WITH WIDESPREAD FROST. LOWS OVER THERE WILL
BE MOSTLY IN THE 30-35F RANGE, BUT COULD DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID
20S AROUND KLAMATH MARSH. FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES ARE UP FOR MOST
THOSE AREAS.
ON WEDNESDAY, A SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCE WILL TRAVEL FROM EASTERN
WASHINGTON INTO SOUTHERN IDAHO, BUT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PERSIST RESULTING IN A DRY AND WARMER AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE AS
SEASONABLE AS IT GETS WITH HIGH TEMPS IN MOST AREAS WITHIN A FEW
DEGREES OF THE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS.
A THERMAL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO TAKE HOLD IN NORCAL, ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO STRONGER OFFSHORE
FLOW AND NE WINDS OVER THE SISKIYOU MTNS/COAST RANGES. AS IS
OFTEN THE CASE, THESE WINDS WILL FUNNEL DOWN THE CHETCO RIVER AND
LIKELY BRING SOME WARMTH ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST NEAR BROOKINGS.
HIGHS THERE WILL EVENTUALLY BE IN THE 80S (COULD BE AS EARLY AS
THURSDAY, BUT ALSO FRI/SAT). OVER THE INTERIOR, MOST AREAS WARM UP
BY ABOUT 10F THURSDAY (COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY), THEN ANOTHER 5F OR
SO ON FRIDAY. THAT PUTS US BACK INTO THE 90S HERE IN MEDFORD.
MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING STRONG RIDGING OUT AROUND 130W THIS
WEEKEND, WHICH, IF CLOSE ENOUGH TO US, WOULD LEAD TO A BRIEF HEAT
WAVE WITH HIGH TEMPS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S HERE
IN MEDFORD. ONE FLY IN THE OINTMENT, HOWEVER, IS WEAK COOL POOL
ALOFT THAT SOME GUIDANCE IS NOW SHOWING SLIDING SOUTHWARD ON THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE (LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY). MODELS
DIFFER IN HOW THEY HANDLE THIS WHICH COULD PLAY A ROLE IN JUST
HOW HOT IT GETS, ESPECIALLY SUNDAY. BUT, AS OF RIGHT NOW, MODEL
GUIDANCE IS STILL SHOWING NBM PROBABILITY OF >=100F OF ~80%. THE
COOL POOL ALOFT, IF IT WERE TO MATERIALIZE, DOES NOT LOOK TO
PRODUCE ANY PRECIPITATION (TOO DRY ALOFT), BUT COULD ENHANCE
AFTERNOON BREEZES EAST OF THE CASCADES, WHICH COULD ALSO ELEVATE
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS GIVEN THE LONGER STRETCH OF DRYING EXPECTED.
IT DOES LOOK LIKE THE RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE IN OVER US MONDAY. NBM
PROBABILITY OF HIGH TEMP >=100F IS STILL ~80% HERE IN MEDFORD. WE
MAY NEED TO CONSIDER HEAT ADVISORIES GIVEN NWS HEATRISK OF
MODERATE ACROSS A FAIRLY LARGE AREA WEST OF THE CASCADES. SINCE IT
IS STILL ONLY JUNE, OVERNIGHT TEMPS SHOULD DROP INTO THE UPPER
50S/LOW 60S, WHICH WILL KEEP THE MOST OF THE HEAT IMPACTS TO THE
HOTTEST PART OF THE DAY (2-6PM). THE UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS OUT BY
MID NEXT WEEK, SO IT SHOULD COOL DOWN SOME, BUT PROBABLY REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL. PRECIP CHANCES REMAIN VERY LOW. -SPILDE
AVIATION...09/06Z TAFS...A LATE SEASON SYSTEM WILL BRING CONTINUED
IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS AND LOCAL LIFR ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING, THEN LIFTING TO VFR AROUND 18-20Z. INLAND, EXPECT A
MIX OF VFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS WITH WIDESPREAD TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING. AREAS FROM THE CASCADES WEST HAVE MODERATE
CHANCES (40-60%) FOR MVFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING, INCLUDING AT ROSEBURG AND MEDFORD. THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY
WILL BE IN THE UMPQUA VALLEY.
EAST OF THE CASCADES, EXPECT PATCHY MVFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.
KLAMATH FALLS HAS A 40% CHANCE OF MVFR CEILINGS IN SHOWERS AROUND 06-
10Z. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TUESDAY MORNING, BECOMING
MAINLY VFR AROUND 18Z. CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON
WITH GUSTY, BREEZY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS.
MARINE...UPDATED 200 AM PDT TUESDAY, JUNE 9, 2026...STEEP
SEAS WILL PERSIST THIS MORNING, BUT SUBSIDE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
LIGHT TO MODERATE WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY BREEZES. A THERMAL TROUGH
BRINGS GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND STEEP WIND DRIVEN SEAS SOUTH OF CAPE
BLANCO BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, LIKELY SPREADING TO ALL AREAS BY
THURSDAY AND THEN LASTING INTO THE WEEKEND. GALES AND VERY STEEP
SEAS ARE POSSIBLE THEN TOO, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF GOLD BEACH. -SPILDE
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR ORZ029-031.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR ORZ030.
CA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR CAZ082>085.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PDT THIS
MORNING FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM TO 11 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ356-
376.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page