165
FXUS66 KMFR 311119
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
419 AM PDT MON MAR 31 2025
DISCUSSION
RADAR CURRENTLY SHOWS A FEW LINES OF SHOWERS MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA WITH THE HEAVIEST RAIN IN SOUTHERN CURRY COUNTY
AND OFF OF THE COAST. A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WERE DETECTED AROUND
3:15 AM WITH THE RAIN MOVING INTO CENTRAL CURRY COUNTY, AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER IS ALONG THE COAST AND INTO WESTERN MOST
COUNTIES TODAY. LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN AND SOME GUSTY WINDS ARE
ALSO THREATS RIGHT NOW WITH ANYTHING THAT COMES INLAND.
A COLD MASS IS MOVING IN AND WILL BRING WINTRY WEATHER AND COLDER
TEMPERATURES TODAY. THERE WILL BE A 5 TO 10 DEGREE DROP TO INLAND
LOCATIONS BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH 40S AND LOW 50S WEST AND UPPER
30S/LOW 40S EAST. SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP TO 2,500 TO 3,500 FEET FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WITH THE LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE WEST COAST IN
NORTHERN OREGON/WASHINGTON, SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING MORE
PRECIPITATION IN AND A WINTER STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT UNTIL
TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR MORE OF SISKIYOU COUNTY WHICH INCLUDES THE
KLAMATH AND TRINITY MOUNTAINS AND ETNA SUMMIT. BETWEEN 1 TO 3
FEET WILL FALL AND THE HEAVIEST WILL FALL THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
NIGHT. THE PROBABILITY DURING THAT TIME FRAME TO SEE AN INCH PER
HOUR IS 70%- 90%. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR
EAST SIDE INCLUDING THE HIGHWAY 97 CORRIDOR BETWEEN KLAMATH FALLS
AND CRESCENT FOR THE SAME TIME FRAME AS THE WARNING. THE HEAVIER
SNOW MONDAY NIGHT WILL ALSO FALL IN THE MOUNT SHASTA AREA SO A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS COULD ALSO COME WITH
THESE SHOWERS. MORE OF THE DETAILS ON THESE PRODUCTS CAN BE FOUND
AT PDXWSWMFR.
OUTSIDE OF THESE AREA PRECIPITATION IS ALSO POSSIBLE FROM NOW
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE HEAVIEST IN CURRY COUNTY WITH THE
COAST SEEING 1.50"- 2.00" WITH 2.00-3.00" POSSIBLE IN PARTS OF
JOSEPHINE COUNTY. THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER HAS BEEN INCREASED
SLIGHTLY (TO 15-25%) INLAND TODAY TOWARDS WESTERN/CENTRAL DOUGLAS
AND JOSEPHINE COUNTIES AS THE FORECAST CAPE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
BE PRESENT FARTHER INLAND. WEST SIDE VALLEYS COULD SEE CLOSER TO
0.50- 0.75" OF RAIN BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SNOWFALL EAST OF THE
CASCADES OUTSIDE OF THE ADVISORIES WILL OVERALL SEE 1" TO 4" BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
THE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL HAS BROUGHT OUR ATTENTION TO ANY FLOODING
CONCERNS. THE ROGUE RIVER NEAR AGNESS IS EXPECTED TO REACH ACTION
LEVEL THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT AND WILL PEAK AT ~16 FEET TUESDAY
EVENING. MINOR FLOOD STAGE AT THAT SITE IS 17 FEET, SO THIS WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED IN CASE MORE RAIN MOVES IN THAN EXPECTED. FOR
NOW, THE FORECAST HAS BEEN ON TRACK. THE ILLINOIS RIVER AT KERBY IS
ALSO EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN ACTION STAGE FROM NOW UNTIL THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.
THE UPPER LOW WILL START MOVING THROUGH THE AREA INTO WEDNESDAY AND
THE ACTIVITY WILL WIND DOWN. WHILE THE SNOW IS TAPERING OFF INTO
WEDNESDAY THE SNOW RATIOS WERE ADJUSTED AS THEY WERE TOO HIGH IN THE
CASCADES, BUT OVERALL ANOTHER 2-4" IS POSSIBLE ABOVE 5,500' THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THE LOW THAT WILL BE IMPACTING US THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL
THEN DIG FARTHER SOUTH WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. THIS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRIER
CONDITIONS. ENSEMBLES ARE IN MORE AGREEMENT THAT THIS SETUP
CONTINUES THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK, SO THIS WILL BE MONITORED. -
HERMANSEN
AVIATION...31/12Z TAFS
ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY
FAR OFFSHORE, AND WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. WITH THE APPROACH OF THE LOW, SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
TODAY WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS YESTERDAY. BUT, THEY WILL BE STRONGER
THAN TYPICAL AT 10 TO 25 KT, AND BECOME GUSTY WITH SPEEDS INCREASING
INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SHOWERS AND A MIX OF MVFR AND
VFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO TUESDAY, WITH THE MOST
WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF MVFR CEILINGS THIS AFTERNOON ACCOMPANYING
HEAVIER SHOWERS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE COAST
TO THE CASCADES. THIS INCLUDES SNOW SHOWERS WITH SNOW LEVELS AROUND
3000 TO 3500 FT MSL. -DW
MARINE...UPDATED 230 AM MONDAY, MARCH 31, 2025
STEEP TO VERY
STEEP SEAS WILL BUILD, AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
PERSIST TODAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE.
SOUTHWEST WIND WAVES AND FRESH SWELL WILL DOMINATE WITH SEAS PEAKING
AT AROUND 13 TO 16 FT AT 10 SECONDS.
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT WILL FOLLOW WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTH TO
NORTHWEST, THOUGH SEAS WILL REMAIN STEEP TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING. NORTH WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY ON THURSDAY
WITH STEEP SEAS POSSIBLE. CONDITIONS IMPROVE AGAIN LATE IN THE WEEK
WITH LOW SEAS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE OUTLOOK INDICATES A LONG
PERIOD WEST SWELL MAY BUILD ON SUNDAY. -DW
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM PDT
TUESDAY FOR ORZ027>031.
CA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR CAZ080-082-083.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM PDT
TUESDAY FOR CAZ082-085.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 8 AM PDT
TUESDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 11 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR PZZ350-
356-370-376.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page