694
FXUS66 KMFR 051106
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
406 AM PDT TUE MAY 5 2026
DISCUSSION (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
KEY POINTS:
* ONLY MINOR IMPACTS EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
* WARM, ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THIS WEEK
* LOW PRESSURE REMAINS TO OUR SOUTH TODAY
- LOW CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY
* DRYING TREND STARTS WEDNESDAY
FURTHER DETAILS:
A CLOSED LOW REMAINS TO OUR SOUTH AND WILL MAINTAIN NORTHEAST FLOW
ALOFT. AS WE REACH PEAK HEATING AND CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES, WE
COULD SEE SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. THIS WOULD BE MAINLY FOR AREAS ALONG AND NEAR THE
CASCADES/EASTSIDE AREAS, AND PARTS OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THESE
CHANCES ARE LESS THAN YESTERDAY WITH ONLY AROUND 10%-15% CHANCE
FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM. WE ARE NOT EXPECTING SEVERE
WEATHER, BUT AN OCCASIONAL GUST AROUND 35-45 MPH IS POSSIBLE.
CHANCES ARE HIGHEST THROUGH PEAK HEATING THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT STARTS TO NUDGE IN TOMORROW AND WILL MAINTAIN
DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES NEAR 90
DEGREES WILL COME TO FRUITION WED/THURS FOR SOME AREAS. SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ON FRIDAY, BUT WARMER TEMPERATURES
QUICKLY RETURN THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
LASTLY, WILL NOTE THAT ON FRIDAY, A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL ENTER THE
PACNW AROUND SEATTLE. AT THIS TIME, IT DOES NOT APPEAR TO HAVE ANY
INFLUENCE ON THE WEATHER FOR OUR FORECAST AREA (OUTSIDE OF COOLER
TEMPS), BUT THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE WE COULD SEE LIGHT RAINFALL
ACROSS COASTAL AREAS OF BOTH DOUGLAS AND COOS COUNTIES AS WELL AS
NORTHERN CASCADES AREAS NORTH OF CRATER LAKE.
-GUERRERO
AVIATION (12 TAFS)
A MARINE LAYER WILL MAINTAIN IFR CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST
IMPACTING KOTH THROUGH MUCH OF THIS CYCLE. THIS HAS SPILLED OVER
INTO THE UMPQUA VALLEY AND THE ROGUE VALLEY WHICH WILL MAINTAIN
MVFR CONDITIONS AT BOTH KRBG AND KMFR THROUGH THIS MORNING.
EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO CLEAR UP TODAY FOR THESE INLAND, BUT NOT
EXPECTING MUCH RELIEF FOR NORTH BEND. THERE IS A LOW END CHANCE
FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM TODAY WITH KLMT HAVING THE
RELATIVELY HIGHER CHANCE TO SEE THIS THREAT.
-GUERRERO
MARINE...UPDATED 400 AM PDT TUESDAY, MAY 5, 2026.
AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF RELATIVELY CALM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY,
WITH WEST-NORTHWEST SWELL DOMINATED SEAS LIKELY REMAINING BELOW 8
FT. A THERMAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP THIS WEEKEND, RESULTING IN
MODERATE NORTH WINDS AND STEEP SEAS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
-GUERRERO
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...NONE.
CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
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