648
FXUS66 KMFR 222037
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
137 PM PDT WED APR 22 2026
DISCUSSION
KEY POINTS:
* REMAINING SHOWERS FINISH THIS EVENING, DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN
* GUSTY CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON EAST OF THE CASCADES
* NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN SATURDAY IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA/CASCADES
* WARM, ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
CURRENT RADAR SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS IN NORTHERN JACKSON AND
JOSEPHINE COUNTIES AND EASTERN DOUGLAS COUNTY. ANY REMAINING SHOWERS
THIS AFTERNOON WILL BRING LESS THAN 0.10" OF RAIN IN THESE AREAS
AND EAST WITH LESS THAN 2 INCHES OF SNOW IN THE CASCADES. MORE
MIXING HAS BROUGHT STRONGER WINDS EAST OF THE CASCADES THROUGH THE
EARLY EVENING. GUSTS HAVE PEAKED TO 48 MPH AT SUMMER LAKE SO FAR
AND GENERAL GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH. THERE IS A 45-60% PROBABILITY TO
SEE WIND GUSTS OF 35 MPH IN NORTHERN LAKE COUNTY INCLUDING AT FORT
ROCK THROUGH 6 PM TODAY.
TONIGHT SOME CLEARING WILL OCCUR, AND THIS INCLUDES AREAS EAST OF
THE CASCADES AND IN THE ILLINOIS VALLEY. FORECAST LOWS FROM SELMA
AND THROUGH OBRIEN ARE IN THE 32-34 DEGREE RANGE. HOWEVER, THE
ILLINOIS VALLEY HAS RECEIVED BETWEEN 0.50"-0.75" OF RAINFALL IN
THE PAST 72 HOURS. THIS MOISTURE WILL HELP LOWER THE FROST THREAT,
BUT PRECAUTIONS SHOULD STILL BE TAKEN AS THE COLDEST HOURS WILL
BRING TEMPS TO 36 OR COOLER WHERE THE CLEAREST SKIES ARE.
BY THURSDAY THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE EAST OUT OF THE AREA AND DRIER
CONDITIONS RETURN. SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE
PRESENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM AS WELL. THE LATEST RUNS SHOW A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN RAIN RETURNING SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND EAST SIDE. THERE IS A 30% PROBABILITY TO SEE 0.10" IN
PARTS OF SISKIYOU AND MODOC COUNTIES LATER SATURDAY. AFTER A DIP IN
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY, A WARMING TREND STARTS THE NEXT WORK WEEK.
DISAGREEMENT IN THE MODELS COMES LATER SUNDAY, AND THIS WILL BE
MONITORED. -HERMANSEN
AVIATION...22/18Z TAFS
A MIX OF VFR/MVFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WITH LINGERING SHOWERS BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD THIS
AFTERNOON. EXPECT TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS TO PREVAIL AS WELL. GUSTY
WINDS WILL CONTINUE EAST OF THE CASCADES INTO THIS EVENING, WITH
WINDS INCREASE IN THE VALLEYS WEST OF THE CASCADES AS WELL. WINDS
EASE LATER THIS EVENING AND SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH AS DRIER AIR MOVES
INTO THE REGION. STRATUS WILL LIKELY LINGER OVER THE VALLEYS
TONIGHT, WHICH SHOULD LIMIT FOG DEVELOPMENT. FOR AREAS THAT DO
CLEAR, EXPECT CHANCES (10-15%) FOR IFR TO DEVELOP FOR INLAND
VALLEYS. /BR-Y
MARINE...UPDATED 100 PM PDT WEDNESDAY, APRIL 22, 2026
BELOW
ADVISORY SEAS CONTINUE TODAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM GRADUALLY
MOVES INLAND. INCREASING NORTHWEST SWELL FOLLOWS TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY, ALONG WITH A PERIOD OF INCREASED WEST WINDS WHICH WILL
PUSH CONDITIONS JUST INTO ADVISORY CRITERIA NORTH OF COOS BAY.
ADDITIONALLY, NORTH WINDS WILL INCREASE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS
SWELL PERSISTS. THIS WILL RESULT IN STEEP SEAS FOR MOST AREAS,
ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO THURSDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY.
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THURSDAY TO
2 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR PZZ356-376.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM PDT FRIDAY
FOR PZZ350-370.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page