253
FXUS66 KMFR 240547
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1047 PM PDT THU OCT 23 2025
DISCUSSION
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION, MARINE AND BEACH
HAZARDS SECTIONS.
AVIATION...24/06Z TAFS
VFR PREVAILS AREA WIDE, EXCEPT AREAS OF
MVFR CLOUDS ARE PRESENT ALONG THE COAST AND MARINE WATERS. A
FRONTAL SYSTEM WELL OFFSHORE WILL GRADUALLY APPROACH THE COAST
TONIGHT AND SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND
THE BEACHES, THEN BECOME GUSTY FRIDAY MORNING. LOW-LEVEL WIND
SHEAR WILL BE A RISK, ESPECIALLY AT COASTAL AIRPORTS (NORTH
BEND/BROOKINGS), AS WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE, AROUND 2000 FT,
WILL BE IN THE 40-50 KT RANGE. THE LLWS THREAT COULD ALSO BE
PRESENT INLAND AROUND ROSEBURG DURING THE AFTERNOON. STRONGER
SURFACE WINDS WILL ALSO DEVELOP IN THE SHASTA VALLEY AND OVER THE
EAST SIDE FRIDAY AFTERNOON, WHERE WIND GUSTS OF 30-40 KT WILL BE
COMMON. AS THE FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE COAST, EXPECT
CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES TO LOWER TO MVFR IN RAIN/FOG. THESE MORE
WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS WILL SPREAD INLAND WEST OF THE CASCADES
FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGHER TERRAIN BECOMING OBSCURED. EAST SIDE
AREAS WILL STAY VFR THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. -SPILDE
MARINE...UPDATED 800 PM PDT THURSDAY, OCTOBER 23, 2025
A HIGH AND
STEEP LONG PERIOD SWELL WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. THE FIRST
IN A SERIES OF FRONTS WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. AS THE FRONT NEARS THE COAST EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING, A COASTAL JET WILL SET UP NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO,
RESULTING IN A PERIOD OF SOUTHERLY GALES. SEAS WILL ALSO BECOME VERY
STEEP AND HAZARDOUS BUILDING TO 15 TO 20 FT FRIDAY DUE TO A
COMBINATION OF SOUTHERLY WIND WAVES AND LONG PERIOD SWELL. WINDS
EASE FOR A BRIEF PERIOD FRIDAY EVENING, BUT SEAS WILL REMAIN HIGH
AND STEEP INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
THERE'S GOOD AGREEMENT THAT STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM AND MOVE
INSIDE OF 130W EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, AND MOVE ONSHORE INTO
NORTHWEST WASHINGTON EARLY SATURDAY EVENING. A SECOND, QUICK-MOVING
FRONT IS EXPECTED SATURDAY, LIKELY BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF GALES
TO MOST OF THE AREA WATERS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AND A GALE WATCH
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF THE WATERS STARTING EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. IT'S LIKELY THE GALE WATCH WILL BE UPGRADED TO A WARNING AT
SOME POINT IN THE NEAR FUTURE. WINDS WILL SHIFT SOUTHWEST LATER
SATURDAY MORNING, BUT THERE COULD BE BURST OF STRONG WINDS BEHIND
THE FRONT SATURDAY AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO.
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH BELOW GALES SATURDAY EVENING, BUT SEAS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE VERY HAZARDOUS, THEREFORE A HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCH
HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED ONCE THE GALES END.
OVERALL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE WEEK AS SEAS
GRADUALLY LOWER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY DURING A RELATIVE BREAK IN THE
WEATHER. ACTIVE WEATHER COULD RETURN BY TUESDAY. -PETRUCELLI/SPILDE
BEACH HAZARDS...UPDATED 900 PM PDT THURSDAY, OCTOBER 23, 2025
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MODERATE TO HEAVY LONG PERIOD WEST SWELL IS ALREADY PRESENT RANGING
FROM 11-17FT OVER THE WATERS THIS EVENING. SINCE HIGH WAVE HEIGHTS
ARE EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND, WE'VE OPTED TO
MAINTAIN THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY TO COVER THE LONG
DURATION THREAT. IMPACTS INCLUDE LARGE BREAKING WAVES OF 20-25 FT
WITHIN THE SURF ZONE, WHICH COULD INUNDATE BEACHES AND LOW LYING
SHORELINES. WAVES COULD WASH OVER ROCKS AND JETTIES, BEACH EROSION
IS POSSIBLE, AND EXPOSED INFRASTRUCTURE MAY BE DAMAGED. THERE IS A
HIGH RISK OF SNEAKER WAVES DURING LULLS IN HIGH SURF. CURRENTLY IT
LOOKS LIKE THE STORM SYSTEM EXPECTED ON SATURDAY WILL BRING THE MOST
HAZARDOUS SURF CONDITIONS, AND WE MAY NEED TO CONSIDER A HIGH SURF
WARNING FOR THE POTENTIAL OF LARGE BREAKING WAVES UP TO 30 FT. RIGHT
NOW CURRENT GUIDANCE KEEPS IT BELOW 30 FEET, BUT THIS COULD CHANGE.
STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES. -PETRUCELLI/SPILDE
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 450 PM PDT THU OCT 23 2025/
DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.
AVIATION...24/00Z TAFS...VFR PREVAILS AREA WIDE, EXCEPT AREAS OF
MVFR CLOUDS ARE PRESENT ALONG THE COAST AND MARINE WATERS. A
FRONTAL SYSTEM WELL OFFSHORE WILL GRADUALLY APPROACH THE COAST
TONIGHT AND SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND
THE BEACHES, THEN BECOME GUSTY FRIDAY MORNING. LOW-LEVEL WIND
SHEAR WILL BE A RISK, ESPECIALLY AT COASTAL AIRPORTS (NORTH
BEND/BROOKINGS), AS WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE, AROUND 2000 FT,
WILL BE IN THE 40-50 KT RANGE. THE LLWS THREAT COULD ALSO BE
PRESENT INLAND AROUND ROSEBURG DURING THE AFTERNOON. STRONGER
SURFACE WINDS WILL ALSO DEVELOP IN THE SHASTA VALLEY AND OVER THE
EAST SIDE FRIDAY AFTERNOON, WHERE WIND GUSTS OF 30-40 KT WILL BE
COMMON. AS THE FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE COAST, EXPECT
CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES TO LOWER TO MVFR IN RAIN/FOG. THESE MORE
WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS WILL SPREAD INLAND WEST OF THE CASCADES
FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGHER TERRAIN BECOMING OBSCURED. EAST SIDE
AREAS WILL STAY VFR THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. -SPILDE
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 221 PM PDT THU OCT 23 2025/
DISCUSSION...
KEY POINTS:
* STRONG WINDS FRIDAY, SATURDAY, AND SUNDAY
- HIGH WIND WARNING FOR AREAS ALONG/NEAR THE COAST SAT.
- WIND ADVISORY FOR EASTSIDE AREAS AND SHASTA VALLEY SAT.
* MULTI-DAY RAINFALL EVENT FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY
- HEAVIEST AMOUNTS ACROSS COASTAL CURRY COUNTY
- NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD FLOODING (RIVERS TOO LOW)
* NUISANCE TYPE FLOODING POSSIBLE
- PONDING ON ROADWAYS
- SMALL CREEKS/STREAMS COULD EXPERIENCE LOCALIZED FLOODING
* HIGH ELEVATION SNOWFALL MAINLY ABOVE 4500 FT
FURTHER DETAILS:
FOCUS WILL BE ON THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN SHAPING UP TO IMPACT THE
REGION STARTING TOMORROW (FRIDAY) AS A WEAK/MODERATE ATMOSPHERIC
RIVER DEVELOPS. THIS WILL BRING MULTIPLE HAZARDS TO THE AREA AS
SHOWN ABOVE IN THE KEY POINTS SECTION AND WILL BE A MULTI-DAY EVENT.
THINGS WILL BEGIN TO SETTLE DOWN ON MONDAY WITH HAZARDS DIMINISHING
FOR INLAND AREAS.
A VERY BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC ROTATION WILL DEVELOP IN THE GULF OF
ALASKA TONIGHT AND WILL ESSENTIALLY DOMINATE OUR WEATHER PATTERN FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS LOW WILL GENERALLY MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH SMALLER WAVES EJECTING OUT AHEAD OF THIS
MAIN CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A LONG DURATION PRECIPITATION EVENT. PRESSURE GRADIENTS
ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST WILL BE STRONG AS A SURFACE LOW ENTERS THE
REGION, ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY WHEN THE WIND SPEEDS WILL BE AT THEIR
PEAK. FOR SATURDAY SPECIFICALLY, WE HAVE ISSUED A HIGH WIND WARNING
FOR AREAS NEAR THE COAST AND HEADLAND AREAS, AND THERE WILL BE A
WIND ADVISORY FOR EASTSIDE AREAS AND SHASTA VALLEY. FRONTOGENESIS
COUPLED WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES, STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION, AND
OVERALL STRONG FORCING ALOFT WILL LEAD TO WIDEPSREAD PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. COASTAL AREAS OF CURRY COUNTY COULD SEE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS AROUND 4 INCHES WHEN ITS ALL SAID AND DONE MONDAY
MORNING. PEAK RAINFALL RATES WILL LIKELY COME IN TWO ROUNDS. FIRST
IS FRIDAY EVENING (5PM-11PM) AND THEN SATURDAY MORNING (6AM-10AM).
THESE TWO TIME PERIODS COULD SEE RAINFALL RATES AROUND 0.50" PER
HOUR. CURRENTLY, RIVERS ARE RUNNING LOW COMING OUT OF SUMMER, SO WE
ARE NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD FLOODING. THAT SAID, SMALL
CREEKS/STREAMS COULD EXPERIENCE LOCALIZED FLOODING, ESPECIALLY IN
AREAS WITH POOR DRAINAGE. OTHERWISE, MOST OF THIS EVENT WILL BE
NUISANCE TYPE FLOODING WITH PONDING ON ROADWAYS. THIS MEANS ROADS
COULD BE HAZARDOUS DURING RAINFALL SO DRIVING WITH CAUTION IS
ADVISED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
FOR SNOWFALL, THIS EVENT WILL LIKELY IMPACT AREAS MAINLY ABOVE 4500
FEET. THAT SAID, SNOW LEVEL COULD BE AS LOW AS 4200 FEET. IMPACTS
WILL BE MOSTLY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN; HOWEVER, SINCE THIS IS THE
FIRST EVENT OF THE YEAR WE DECIDED TO LEAN ON CAUTION AND ISSUED
AN ADVISORY FOR THIS SNOWFALL EVENT. GIVEN WIND GUSTS AROUND 60
MPH, THERE COULD BE VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AS WELL. GROUND
TEMPERATURES ARE STILL A LITTLE WARM, SO ACCUMULATIONS MAY
STRUGGLE AT FIRST, BUT THE DURATION SHOULD HELP COOL THE COLUMN
AND GROUND TEMPERATURES SUFFICIENT FOR ACCUMULATIONS SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. ALSO OF CONCERN WILL BE HIGHWAY 140 NEAR LAKE OF THE
WOODS WHERE AMOUNTS COULD BE AROUND 3 TO 5 INCHES. CAUTION SHOULD
BE TAKEN IF TRAVELING THROUGH AREAS WITH SNOWFALL BECAUSE EVEN
SMALL AMOUNTS OF SNOWFALL ON THE ROAD CAN LEAD TO SLIPPERY
CONDITIONS. SATURDAY MORNING AROUND 11AM THROUGH ABOUT 2AM ON
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING COULD SEE SNOWFALL RATES AROUND 1.5"
PER HOUR AT TIMES WITH SATURDAY EVENING LIKELY HAVING THE HIGHEST
SNOWFALL RATES. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS ISSUED TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS TIME PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOWFALL COUPLED WITH STRONG WIND
GUSTS AROUND 50-60 MPH WHICH MAY LEAD TO BLOWING SNOW. HIGHWAY 140
MAY SEE GUSTS AROUND 30-35 MPH WHICH MAY LEAD TO SOME VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS AS WELL.
IMPACTS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO
BUILD IN OVER THE REGION.
-GUERRERO
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 PM FRIDAY TO 8 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR ORZ030-
031.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR ORZ021-022.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 5 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR ORZ021-022.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 AM SATURDAY TO 5 PM PDT SUNDAY
FOR ORZ027-028.
CA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 PM FRIDAY TO 8 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR CAZ081-
085.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM PDT SATURDAY
FOR PZZ356-376.
GALE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR
PZZ350-356-370-376.
HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR PZZ350-370.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM FRIDAY TO 5 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR
PZZ350-370.
GALE WARNING FROM 5 AM TO 5 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR PZZ350-370.
MAS/MAS/MAS
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