346
FXUS66 KMFR 250511
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
911 PM PST TUE FEB 24 2026
UPDATE
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED.
AVIATION...25/06Z TAFS
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. COASTAL AREAS AND AND MOST INLAND AREAS ARE
EXPECTED TO SEE MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS OVERNIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. PATCHY FOG OR LOW STRATUS WITH LIFR MAY DEVELOP AS WELL
LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDENSDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY IN THE UMPQUA
VALLEY. LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO LIFT LATE WEDNESDAY
MORNING AND EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, WITH CONDITIONS BECOMING VFR.
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 230 PM PST TUE FEB 24 2026/
DISCUSSION...THE MAIN BELT OF PRECIPITATION WITHIN THIS
PINEAPPLE EXPRESS IS SLOWLY WORKING ITS WAY SOUTH, WITH THE BACK
END OF THE STEADY RAIN CURRENTLY LYING ROUGHLY ALONG A LINE FROM
CRATER LAKE TO CAVE JUNCTION. AREAS TO THE WEST AND NORTH OF THIS
LINE HAVE TRANSITIONED TO MORE SHOWERY, LIGHTER PRECIPITATION,
WHILE STEADY MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST. THERE HAVE BEEN SOME IMPRESSIVE RAINFALL TOTALS OVER THE
LAST 24 HOURS, WITH MEDFORD NOW OVER 1.25 INCHES SINCE YESTERDAY,
AREAS IN THE SOUTHERN ILLINOIS VALLEY NEAR O'BRIEN AND ACROSS
WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY RECEIVING BETWEEN 2 AND 4 INCHES, AND
AREAS ALONG THE COAST RECEIVING 4 TO 5 INCHES. AS RAIN IS
ONGOING, OVERALL STORM TOTALS ARE NOT YET FINALIZED, BUT ALREADY
IT LOOKS AS IF SEVERAL STATIONS WILL BE AT OR NEAR DAILY RECORD
RAINFALL AMOUNTS.
SEVERAL FLOOD PRODUCTS ARE IN EFFECT, ALTHOUGH SOME HAVE BEEN
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. FIRST, A FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
COQUILLE RIVER AT COQUILLE, WHICH AS OF THIS WRITING IS JUST
BELOW FLOOD STAGE, AND EXPECTED TO HIT MINOR FLOOD SHORTLY. A
FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH FORK COQUILLE AT
MYRTLE POINT, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW FLOOD STAGE, BUT
MAY GET VERY CLOSE. AN AREAL FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
CURRY, JOSEPHINE, JACKSON, AND WESTERN/CENTRAL SISKIYOU COUNTIES,
WHERE RAIN CONTINUES AT THIS TIME, BUT HAS BEEN EXPIRED FOR COOS
AND DOUGLAS AS THE RAIN HAS MOVED OUT OF THOSE AREA AND NO AREAL
OR SMALL STREAM FLOODING HAS BEEN REPORTED. CREEKS AND STREAMS ARE
STILL EXPECTED TO RUN HIGH FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO AS RUNOFF
CONTINUES TO WORK ITS WAY THROUGH THE SYSTEM.
THIS MAIN BELT OF MOISTURE PUSHES OFF TO THE SOUTH LATER TODAY,
WITH SHOWERS THEN CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS ONSHORE FLOW PERSISTS, BUT ANY ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS BY
THIS TIME WILL BE LIGHT. SNOW LEVELS THAT HAVE PEAKED AS HIGH AS
9000 FEET LAST NIGHT AND TODAY WILL LOWER TO ABOUT 3000 TO 4000
FT WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT PASSES AND SHOWERS TAPER OFF, SO SOME
LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE AT ELEVATION, BUT NO SIGNIFICANT WINTER
IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING RETURNS TO THE AREA FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK, WITH DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY,
AND POTENTIALLY INTO SATURDAY. AREA VALLEYS, HOWEVER, WILL LIKELY
SEE STRONG INVERSIONS WITH FOG AND LOW CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AND INTO
THE MORNINGS, ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE CASCADES.
MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO SHOW A WARM FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE
AREA SATURDAY, WITH WIDESPREAD OVERRUNNING LEADING TO BROAD AREAS
OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW
APPROACHES THE AREA BUT FIZZLES OUT. ANY RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM
THIS WEAK SYSTEM WILL BE VERY LIGHT, AND WITH SNOW LEVELS RISING
AGAIN TO WELL ABOVE 6000 OR EVEN 7000 FEET, WINTER IMPACTS ARE NOT
EXPECTED.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN RETURNS IN FULL FORCE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK,
WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS.
MARINE...UPDATED 200 PM PST TUESDAY, FEBRUARY 24, 2026...SOUTHERLY
SWELL CONTINUES TO EASE THIS EVENING BUT STEEP SEAS CONTINUE IN ALL
WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. A BRIEF PERIOD OF BELOW ADVISORY SEAS IS
FORECAST FROM EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING, WHEN
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BUILD STEEP SEAS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO INTO
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
BELOW ADVISORY SEAS ARE EXPECTED FROM THURSDAY MORNING INTO FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. ON FRIDAY, A COMBINATION OF INCREASING SWELL AND GUSTY
WINDS (BOTH NORTHERLY) LOOKS TO DEVELOP IN AREA WATERS. THIS WOULD
BUILD SOME LEVEL OF UNSETTLED SEAS, GENERALLY STEEP BUT WITH AREAS
OF VERY STEEP SEAS POSSIBLE. THESE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS COULD LAST
INTO THE WEEKEND. -TAD
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR ORZ022-024-026.
CA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR CAZ080-081.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS
EVENING FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
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