653
FXUS66 KMFR 252345
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
345 PM PST WED FEB 25 2026
UPDATE
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED.
AVIATION...26/00Z TAFS
CONDITIONS ARE MAINLY VFR WITH
LOCAL MVFR CEILINGS IN THE UMPQUA VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. CEILINGS
ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT TO VFR LATE TODAY.
WITH ALL THE RECENT MOISTURE, FOG AND LOW CLOUDS ARE HIGHLY LIKELY
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. EXPECT LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS
FOR WEST SIDE VALLEYS. OFFSHORE (EASTERLY) FLOW SHOULD MAINTAIN VFR
CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST. GUIDANCE SHOWS SOME LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
SPREADING NORTHWARD ACROSS AREAS EAST OF THE CASCADES TONIGHT, SO
EXPECT WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP AFTER 10Z. CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY CLEAR TO VFR LATE THURSDAY MORNING AND
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 220 PM PST WED FEB 25 2026/
DISCUSSION...WITH RAIN DIMINISHING TO SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS
MORNING, MOST RIVERS, CREEKS, AND STREAMS HAVE CRESTED AND ARE
NOW RECEDING. THERE IS, OF COURSE, ONE NOTABLE EXCEPTION: THE
COQUILLE RIVER AT COQUILLE, WHICH REMAINS IN MINOR FLOOD STAGE AND
IS EVER SO SLIGHTLY STILL RISING. THIS RIVER IS KNOWN TO LINGER
ABOVE FLOOD STAGE FOR LONGER THAN EXPECTED, SO THE FLOOD WARNING
THERE HAS BEEN EXTENDED OUT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE,
ALL AREA WATERWAYS SHOULD START RECEDING SOON, IF THEY HAVEN'T
STARTED ALREADY.
RADAR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS STILL
DRIFTING ACROSS THE AREA. COVERAGE SHOULD CONTINUE TO DECREASE
THROUGH THIS EVENING AND MAY LINGER INTO TONIGHT. SNOW LEVELS OF
4000 TO 5000 FEET TODAY WILL LOWER TO ABOUT 3000 TO 4000 FT BY
TONIGHT AS WELL, SO WHILE THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT SNOW IN THE
MOUNTAINS, NO SIGNIFICANT WINTER IMPACTS, ASIDE FROM REFREEZING
SNOWMELT/RAINFALL PERHAPS CAUSING SOME SLICK SPOTS HERE AND THERE.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING RETURNS TO THE AREA FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK, WITH DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY,
AND POTENTIALLY INTO SATURDAY. AREA VALLEYS, HOWEVER, WILL LIKELY
SEE STRONG INVERSIONS WITH FOG AND LOW CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AND INTO
THE MORNINGS, ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE CASCADES.
MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO SHOW A WARM FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA
FROM THE SOUTHWEST SATURDAY, WITH WIDESPREAD OVERRUNNING LEADING
TO BROAD AREAS OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION SATURDAY. BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON, THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE JUST OFFSHORE, AND A
SHORTWAVE IS NOW FORECAST TO PASS OVERHEAD SOMETIME LATER IN THE
DAY. IF THIS COOLER AIR ALOFT ARRIVES INT TIME TO TAKE ADVANTAGE
OF THE DAYTIME WARMING, CONVECTION OR EVEN SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS COULD FORM DUE TO THE DEVELOPING INSTABILITY, MAINLY
IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA, ALONG THE SISKIYOUS AND FAR SOUTHERN
OREGON CASCADES, AND IN SOUTHERN KLAMATH AND LAKE COUNTIES. ANY
PLACE THAT DOES GET A STRONGER SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORMS COULD SEE
A SHORT-LIVED DOSE OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AND EVEN SOME HAIL
OR GRAUPEL, BUT MOST LOCATIONS WILL JUST SEE LIGHT PRECIPITATION
THROUGH SUNDAY. WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE WARM FRONT, SNOW LEVELS
WILL RISE AGAIN TO WELL ABOVE 7000 FEET, SO WINTER IMPACTS ARE
NOT EXPECTED.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN RETURNS IN FULL FORCE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK,
WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS, ALTHOUGH ANOTHER
WEAK SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE MIDWEEK.
MARINE...UPDATED 200 PM PST WEDNESDAY, FEBRUARY 25, 2026...GUSTY
NORTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, HOVERING RIGHT
AT ADVISORY CRITERIA SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO. THIS WILL BRING SOME
BORDERLINE STEEP SEAS TO THE OUTER WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO THAT
PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS/SEAS LOOK TO
HOVER RIGHT AROUND ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY. BY LATE
FRIDAY, THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING NORTHWEST SWELL AND GUSTY
NORTH WINDS BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD, STEEP SEAS ARE LIKELY TO
DEVELOP ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA WATERS FRIDAY EVENING INTO EARLY
SATURDAY. CONDITIONS IMPROVE LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, WITH SUB-
ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. /BR-Y
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...NONE.
CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST THURSDAY
FOR PZZ376.
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