752
FXUS66 KMFR 071730
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1030 AM PDT MON SEP 7 2026
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 18Z TAFS
KEY MESSAGES
* COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TODAY. EAST OF THE
CASCADES, A FREEZE WARNING IS IN PLACE OVERNIGHT/THIS MORNING.
TEMPERATURES TREND WARMER BUT AREAS OF FROST/LOCAL FREEZING
TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
* A STRONG WARMING AND DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED
TO PEAK IN THE MID 80S TO MID 90S ON WEDNESDAY.
* UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO PACNW LATE THIS WEEK, BUT MOISTURE IS
LIMITED AND THE MOST LIKELY RESULT IS A DRY FRONT CROSSING THE
AREA FRI/FRI NIGHT. EXPECT SOME ENHANCED W-SW BREEZES IN ADVANCE
OF THIS SYSTEM THU PM/FRI, WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND. PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE LOW (5-15% RANGE) AND
MAINLY ACROSS NW SECTIONS (CASCADES N&W).
DISCUSSION
AN UPPER TROUGH IS SHIFTING NORTHEAST OF THE AREA
TODAY. OVERALL, EXPECT DRY WEATHER TODAY WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE
UMPQUA BASIN WILL CLEAR LATER THIS MORNING. SINCE THE AIR MASS IS
PRETTY COLD, AREAS EAST OF THE CASCADES WILL HAVE TEMPERATURES DROP
INTO THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S. A FREEZE WARNING /PDXNPWMFR/
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING
A WARMING AND DRYING TREND TO THE AREA. BREEZY TO GUSTY EAST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SET UP OVER THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING DUE TO A STRENGTHENING SURFACE THERMAL
TROUGH ALONG THE COAST. THIS PATTERN CONTINUES TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME POOR OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERIES FOR
UPPER SLOPES/RIDGES, MAINLY FOR THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS AND FOR
MOUNTAINS IN WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.
MEANWHILE, A STRONG INVERSION WILL BRING CONTINUED AREAS OF FROST
AND LOCAL FREEZING CONDITIONS TO AREAS EAST OF THE CASCADES,
ESPECIALLY VALLEYS IN NORTHERN KLAMATH AND NORTHERN LAKE COUNTIES
MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. BUT, THE COLDEST PORTION
OF THE AIR MASS ALOFT WILL HAVE SHIFTED EAST OF OUR AREA BY THEN.
SO, EXPECT MAINLY AREAS OF FROST AND LOCALLY FREEZE CONDITIONS
NEAR CHEMULT AND OTHER TYPICALLY COLDER SPOTS. TEMPERATURES WARM
TO NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL FOR ALL AREAS TUESDAY AFTERNOON, THEN
ABOVE NORMAL FOR BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S
TO MID 90S ARE EXPECTED ACROSS INLAND AREAS WEDNESDAY WITH
SIMILAR CONDITIONS THURSDAY.
AN UPPER LOW WILL APPROACH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY FRIDAY, THEN MOVE OVER THE AND MOVE OVER THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW MOSTLY
DRY WEATHER OVER THE AREA WITH A LOW CHANCE (10-15%) FOR SHOWERS,
MAINLY ALONG THE COAST AND INTO DOUGLAS COUNTY. THE LOW SHIFTS
EASTWARD SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. OVERALL, EXPECT A SHIFT
TOWARDS COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS LOWERING INTO THE MID 60S
TO UPPER 70S BY SATURDAY. THE TROUGH SHOULD ALSO ALLOW FOR A
MODEST INCREASE IN W-SW BREEZES IN ADVANCE OF IT (BEGINNING THU
PM, BUT PEAKING FRI PM/EVE).
AVIATION...07/18Z TAFS
WITH CEILINGS CLEAR OVER NORTH BEND AND
CLEARING OVER ROSEBURG, VFR LEVELS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY. GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON,
THEN EASING INTO THE EVENING. PERIODS OF MVFR OR IFR CEILINGS ARE
POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST LATER IN THE EVENING, BUT OFFSHORE FLOW
OVERNIGHT WOULD LIMIT ITS DURATION. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS DEVELOPMENT IS
POSSIBLE AROUND 05Z, BUT CURRENT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE THOSE CLOUDS IN THE NORTH BEND TAF FORECAST. -TAD
MARINE...UPDATED 100 AM PDT MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 7, 2026
A
THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPS TODAY, BRINGING GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND
STEEP WIND SEAS SOUTH OF PORT ORFORD. STEEP SEAS EXTEND TO CAPE
ARAGO MONDAY NIGHT, AND ACROSS THE WATERS TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. WINDS BRIEFLY DIMINISH WEDNESDAY, BUT STEEP SEAS MAY
LINGER. THEN, GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND STEEP SEAS MAY RETURN
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, MAINLY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO.
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR ORZ029>031.
CA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR CAZ082-084-085.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING
TO 5 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ356-376.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM PDT
WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ350-370.
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