235
FXUS66 KMFR 261132
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
432 AM PDT TUE MAR 26 2019
DISCUSSION
REMNANT SHOWERS OF THE EXITING COLD FRONT ARE
BRINGING SNOW TO PORTIONS OF THE FAR EAST SIDE AT THIS TIME. THE
REMNANTS OF THIS DISSIPATING FRONT WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT
STATIONARY AND GET PULLED INTO THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT MOVES IN
TONIGHT. THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL SWING IN OFF A DEEP LOW WELL
OFFSHORE OF CAPE BLANCO.
THE REMNANTS OF THE DISSIPATED STALLED FRONT WILL BE PULLED BACK
TO THE NORTHWEST AND JOIN WITH THE WARM FRONTAL SHEILD TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. AS WE HEAD FURTHER INTO WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THE WARM FRONT AND THE TRIPLE POINT OF THE EDGE OF THE
OCCLUDED FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. WITH WINDS INCREASING
WITH TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE MT SHASTA AREA THE
HIGHEST PRECIP RATES WILL BE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING, BUT THIS TIME SNOW LEVELS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY ABOVE 4500
FEET, BUT COULD DROP BRIEFLY TO AROUND 3500 FEET FOR SHORT
PERIODS DURING THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION PERIODS.
THERE IS SOME ELEVATED INSTABLITY FROM THE CASCADES EASTWARD, AND
THE BIGGEST CONCERN IS CLOUD COVER INHIBITING WARMING AT THE
SURFACE. HOWEVER, THIS INHIBITING FACTOR IS COUNTERED BY THE
ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND THE STRONG SHORT WAVE THAT MOVES THROUGH
ALONG WITH THE FRONT, SO HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE IN THIS AREA.
FROM HERE THINGS ARE LESS TRADITIONALLY DEFINED AS FRONTS AS THE
APPROACHING GUMBALL MACHINE LOW APPROACHES THE COAST AND
DISPENSES WAVE AFTER WAVE OF PRECIP THROUGH THE REGION INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. ONCE AGAIN THERE IS INSTABILITY FROM THE CASCADES
EASTWARD THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE SAME PROS AND CONS, BUT MORE
UNSTABLE ELEVATED INSTABILITY, AND ALSO ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
AVIATION...FOR THE 26/12Z TAFS
CONDITIONS ARE MAINLY VFR, BUT
THERE ARE PATCHES OF IFR AND MVFR DUE TO BOTH VALLEY STRATUS AND A
FEW SNOW SHOWERS THAT ARE LINGERING EAST OF THE CASCADES EARLY THIS
MORNING. SHOWERS WILL BE AT A MINIMUM BY MID-MORNING WITH VFR LIKELY.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS RETURN THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND IN SOUTHERN SISKIYOU COUNTY. CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN MAINLY VFR, BUT THIS WILL LOWER CIGS/VSBYS IN THE VICINITY OF
SHOWERS AND PRODUCE LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION. -DW
MARINE...UPDATED 300 AM PDT TUESDAY 26 MARCH 2019
HIGH AND STEEP SEAS WILL PERSIST EARLY THIS MORNING. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING IMPROVING CONDITIONS INTO THIS EVENING. ANOTHER
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY, AND LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER
THE WATERS INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PRODUCE RAIN WITH ANOTHER
ROUND OF STRONGER SOUTHERLY WINDS AND STEEP TO VERY STEEP SEAS THAT
WILL PERSIST INTO FRIDAY MORNING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
FRIDAY, THEN WEAKEN SATURDAY, WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. -DW
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...NONE.
CA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING
ABOVE 4500 FEET IN THE FOR CAZ080-082-083.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM PDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
PZZ350-356.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM PDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
PZZ370-376.
SBN/SBN/SBN
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