923
FXUS66 KMFR 231041
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
241 AM PST FRI JAN 23 2026
DISCUSSION
THE RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN LINGERING OVER THE
FORECAST AREA FOR THE BETTER PART OF TWO WEEKS WILL FINALLY START
TO BREAK DOWN, OR AT LEAST MOVE FARTHER WEST, TODAY. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE IS PASSING OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING, AND SOME VERY
SPOTTY AND VERY LIGHT RETURNS ARE APPEARING ON RADAR EAST O THE
CASCADES, BUT VERY LITTLE OF THIS, IF ANY, IS MAKING IT TO THE
GROUND. THE SHORTWAVE WILL, HOWEVER, HELP TO MIX THE ATMOSPHERE
UP A BIT, WEAKENING THE VALLEY INVERSIONS, AND HOPEFULLY ALLOWING
SOME OF THE MORE FOG-PRONE AREAS TO CLEAR OUT THIS AFTERNOON.
WHERE CLOUD COVER EXISTS THIS MORNING, LOW TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN
WARMER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS. WHERE THE SKIES ARE CLEAR, MAINLY TO
THE SOUTH OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA, LOWS REMAIN COLDER THAN
NORMAL.
THE PATTERN CONTINUES TO CHANGE WITH A STRONG SURFACE HIGH
BUILDING EAST OF THE CASCADES AND EAST TO WEST WIND FLOW
DEVELOPING DURING THE DAY. THE AIR WILL BECOME FAIRLY DRY WITH
SOME COOLER AIR TRYING TO SETTLE INTO THE VALLEYS TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING. THIS IS THE DAY OF HIGHER CONCERN FOR COLDER
OVERNIGHT LOWS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING TEMPERATURES ALONG
THE COAST. THE NBM HAS A 50% CHANCE OF TEMPERATURES <32 AROUND
NORTH BEND ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. THEREFORE, WE
DECIDED TO ISSUE A FREEZE WATCH FOR THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN DOUGLAS
AND COOS COUNTIES. THE MAIN IMPACT IS FOR OUTDOOR PLANTS AND SOME
OUTDOOR PLUMBING THAT COULD FREEZE OVERNIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD BY SUNDAY AS A SHORT WAVE APPROACHES
THE OREGON COASTLINE AROUND SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WAVE WILL COME IN
DRY, ALTHOUGH WE SHOULD SEE SOME CLOUD COVER AND PERHAPS A STRAY
SHOWER ALONG THE OREGON COASTLINE AROUND MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
THE BIG CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED AROUND WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT
PUSHES INTO OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. ENSEMBLE DATA IS
SHOWING PRECIPITATION HITTING THE REGION WITH THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL TO OUR SOUTH. THERE IS STILL A RATHER LARGE NUMBER OF
MEMBERS THAT KEEP US DRY AND NOT MUCH IF ANYTHING FALLING IN
SOUTHERN OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. SO WHILE THERE COULD BE
SOME LIGHT SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS, IT'S NOT LOOKING GREAT FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOWPACK RIGHT NOW.
OVERALL, THE DRYISH TREND CONTINUES, ALTHOUGH THE WEATHER PATTERN
WILL LIKELY BECOME MORE PROGRESSIVE BY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION...23/12Z TAFS
A MOSTLY DRY FRONTAL SYSTEM IS
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA, PRODUCING MOSTLY VFR CLOUDINESS WITH
CEILINGS LOWERING FROM AROUND 8KFT DOWN TO AROUND 3-6KFT. PRECIP
CHANCES REMAIN LOW OR NON-EXISTENT IN MOST PLACES, BUT WOULDN'T BE
SURPRISED IF A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN FALLS ALONG THE COAST NORTH OF CAPE
BLANCO OR STRAY SNOW FLURRIES OCCUR OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
EAST SIDE.
MEANWHILE, LIFR CEILINGS PERSIST IN AND AROUND THE NOTORIOUS
FOG/LOW CLOUD "BOWLS" OF GRANTS PASS/ROSEBURG. THESE CEILINGS WILL
BE DIFFICULT TO BREAK GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE INVERSION THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM ARRIVING FROM THE NORTH COULD ALLOW FOR
JUST ENOUGH MIXING TODAY FOR CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO VFR. MODEL
GUIDANCE ISN'T MUCH HELP IN THIS REGARD SEEING AS IT DOESN'T
EVEN ACKNOWLEDGES THE EXISTENCE OF THE FOG/LOW CLOUDS RIGHT NOW.
BUT, SINCE THE OVERALL AIR MASS WILL BE DRYING OUT, WE'RE
OPTIMISTICALLY ALLOWING FOR A PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS THERE LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON.
HERE IN MEDFORD, CLOUD COVER (6-8KFT) COMING INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH COULD BE TIMED WELL ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE LIFR FOG DEVELOPMENT.
EVEN IF PATCHY FOG DOES OCCUR, IT WOULDN'T LIKELY LAST TOO LONG.
MARINE...UPDATED 200 AM PST FRIDAY, JANUARY 23, 2026
NORTH WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE TODAY. SEAS ARE STEEP AND
HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO, ESPECIALLY BEYOND 10
NM FROM SHORE. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AND SHIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST, BUT ALSO SPREAD TO AREAS NORTH OF THE CAPE ON SATURDAY.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE EARLY NEXT WEEK. A MORE ACTIVE
PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO FOLLOW LATER NEXT WEEK.
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
ORZ021.
AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ORZ023-
024-026-029>031.
FREEZING FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PST TODAY FOR ORZ024.
CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST
SATURDAY FOR PZZ356-376.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM PST
SATURDAY FOR PZZ350-370.
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