706
FXUS66 KMFR 090524
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
924 PM PST THU JAN 8 2026
DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
AVIATION...09/06Z TAFS
VFR CONDITIONS ARE PRESENT AS HIGH CLOUDS
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FOR NOW. THERE ARE LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING IN
INLAND WEST SIDE VALLEYS, AND IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO
DEVELOP TONIGHT IN FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS, INCLUDING ROSEBURG AND
MEDFORD. THIS IS LIKELY TO PERSIST BEFORE VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT
WINDS RETURN LATER IN THE MORNING. -BPN/HERMANSEN
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 PM PST THU JAN 8 2026/
DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES PERSIST AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN
BEHIND YESTERDAY'S COLD FRONT. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARDS WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN THE TROUGH'S
WAKE. WE LOOKED AT FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT AND WERE INITIALLY
EXCITED BY THIS POSSIBILITY, ALTHOUGH THE DEWPOINTS SEEM TO BE
LOWERING AS WE CONTINUE TO MIX THE ATMOSPHERE HERE IN THE ROGUE
VALLEY. PLUS THERE IS PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER STILL AROUND AND OTHER
VARIABLES POINT TO NOT AS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FOG LATER
TONIGHT. THEREFORE, WE JUST LEFT IT AS PATCHY FOG IN THE FORECAST
WITH GRANTS PASS AND THE ILLINOIS VALLEY WITH THE BEST CHANCE TO
SEE FOG LATER TONIGHT AS THERE IS A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE THERE.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE ON THE COOLER SIDE AND A FEW DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK IS HINTING AT A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY AROUND
ASHLAND WITH 10 TO 15 MPH WINDS AND LOWS POTENTIALLY IN THE MID
20'S. IF WE DO GET THE WIND, THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD MIX A BIT AND
KEEP LOWS A BIT HIGHER. GIVEN THE ISOLATED NATURE, WE DIDN'T ISSUE
A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY, BUT IT WILL BE ONE OF THE COOLER NIGHTS
TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD WITH SOME LIGHTER EASTERLY
FLOW SETTING UP IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND MID SLOPES. MSLP
INCREASES TO 1034 TO AROUND 1040, WHICH IS UNUSUALLY STRONG FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR AND LIES IN THE 99.5 PERCENTILE FOR PARTS OF
SOUTHERN OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. WE TOOK A BRIEF LOOK AT
FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN BUFKIT WHILE WRITING THIS AFD, AND IT
APPEARS MIXING HEIGHTS WILL REALLY STRUGGLE TO REACH 1000 FEET.
COMPOUNDED WITH THE THE RECENT SNOW AND COLD TEMPERATURES, WE
DECIDED TO ISSUE AN AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY FOR THE VALLEYS WEST
AND EAST OF THE CASCADES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ENDING AT 10AM
SUNDAY.
MIXING HEIGHTS COULD IMPROVE ON SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO
BREAK DOWN AND AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER STARTS TO SLAM INTO BRITISH
COLUMBIA.
TOWARDS THE START OF NEXT WEEK, THE RIDGE BEGINS TO REBUILD AND WE
WILL SEE MORE DRY WEATHER FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK. IF FOG DOESN'T
BUILD INTO THE VALLEYS, WHICH SEEMS UNLIKELY NEXT WEEK, THEN
TEMPERATURES COULD PUSH INTO THE UPPER 50'S WEST OF THE CASCADES
WITHIN THE VALLEYS. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE SHOWING UP AS 0.8 TO
0.9 OR SO ON THE EFI, SO DEFINITELY SOME HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SOME
WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHER TERRAIN MOST OF
NEXT WEEK.
-SMITH
MARINE...UPDATED 200 PM PST THURSDAY, JANUARY 8, 2026...WIND SPEEDS
WILL TREND LOWER THIS MORNING AND THROUGHOUT THE DAY. LONG PERIOD
SWELL CONTINUES THROUGH THIS EVENING, RESULTING IN DANGEROUS BAR AND
SURF CONDITIONS. CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVE FRIDAY WITH MODERATE
SOUTH WINDS AND STEEPENING SEAS THIS WEEKEND, MAINLY FOR THE OUTER
WATERS. GUSTY NORTH WINDS ARE POSSIBLE AS A THERMAL TROUGH
DEVELOPS EARLY NEXT WEEK. -BPN
HIGH SURF...UPDATED 200 PM PST THURSDAY, JANUARY 7, 2026...LONG
PERIOD SWELL CAME IN SLIGHTLY HIGH THAN EXPECTED TODAY ,AND IS
LINGERING FOR A LONGER TIME THAT ORIGINALLY FORECAST. AS A RESULT,
HIGH SURF CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING, AND
POTENTIALLY INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS
IN EFFECT. PLEASE STAY OFF JETTIES AND REMAIN OUT OF THE SURF ZONE
AS BEACHES WILL BE DANGEROUS DUE TO THESE HIGH SURF CONDITIONS.
- SPILDE/BPN
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR ORZ021-022.
AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY FROM 10 AM FRIDAY TO 10 AM PST SUNDAY
FOR ORZ023-024-026-029>031.
CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS
EVENING FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST FRIDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-
376.
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