626
FXUS66 KMFR 151713
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1013 AM PDT TUE SEP 15 2026
..NEW AVIATION SECTION
AVIATION (18Z TAFS)
TAFS WILL START OUT WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES FOR THE TERMINALS, BUT HIGH CLOUDS WILL START TO INFILTRATE
INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECTING ANOTHER MARINE STRATUS
LAYER TO BRING IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS TO KOTH OVERNIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, INLAND SITES ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY LOW
TO MID LEVEL CLOUD DECKS. NEED TO CONSIDER RAIN CHANCES THIS
EVENING FOR KLMT, BUT AT THIS TIME CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH
TO INCLUDE IN THIS TAF CYCLE, BUT THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE (20-25%)
TO SEE A SHOWER OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM AFTER SUNSET AND
POSSIBLY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. MAY REEVALUATE AND ADD THIS
MENTION IN SUBSEQUENT TAFS.
-GUERRERO
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 513 AM PDT TUE SEP 15 2026/
KEY MESSAGES...
* AN APPROACHING CUTOFF LOW COULD BRING NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE IN THE FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY.
* TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY HOVER AT OR BELOW SEASONAL NORMS
FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK BEFORE WARMING ON FRIDAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION...NEAR-SEASONAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE WEST OF THE
CASCADES TODAY, WITH DAYTIME HIGHS WARMING 5 TO 10 DEGREES TO THE
EAST. A CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA THIS EVENING,
WHICH LOOKS TO BRING CHANCES FOR NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THESE CHANCES ARE VERY SLIGHT (5-10%)
AND SEEM TO BE LIMITED TO ALONG AND EAST OF THE CASCADES. THE CUTOFF
LOOKS TO BRING TEMPERATURES EAST OF THE CASCADES BACK DOWN BY 5-10
DEGREES ON WEDNESDAY WHILE HIGHS TO THE WEST LINGER NEAR SEASONAL
LEVELS. AFTERNOON BREEZES MAY BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER, WHILE SLIGHT
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN ALONG AND EAST OF
THE CASCADES. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD CONTINUE INTO THE
NIGHTTIME HOURS.
EASTERLY FLOW TO WEST SIDE AREAS WILL BRING DAYTIME HIGHS TO
SEASONAL LEVELS ON THURSDAY, WHILE EAST SIDE AREAS WILL REMAIN
COOLER. WITH THE LOW STARTING TO MOVE EASTWARD, IT MAY BE ABLE TO
TAP INTO MONSOONAL MOISTURE AND BUMP EAST SIDE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
TO THE 10-15% RANGE ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOWER 5-10%
CHANCES DEVELOP OVER JACKSON AND SISKIYOU COUNTIES, AGAIN DUE TO
EASTERLY FLOW POSSIBLY GUIDING ACTIVITY. CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
DISSIPATE INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
UNEVENTFUL WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO
THE WEEKEND AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES OVER THE AREA, BRINGING
ADDITIONAL WARMING THAT COULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AT THIS
POINT, DAYTIME HIGHS COULD BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THIS
WOULD PUT THE OREGON COAST IN THE LOW 70S, WHILE WEST SIDE VALLEYS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S. FOR EAST SIDE AREAS,
HIGHS IN THE MID TO HIGH 70S WILL BE POSSIBLE. BEYOND SUNDAY, LONG-
TERM IMAGERY STARTS TO DIVERGE. METEOGRAMS MEMBERS ARE SHOWING MORE
PRECIPITATION SIGNALS TOWARDS THE END OF THE MONTH, BUT WITH LITTLE
CONSISTENT TIMING OR RAINFALL AMOUNTS. THIS GIVES THE FEELING THAT
ACTIVE WEATHER IS OUT THERE IN THE LONG TERM, BUT WITH LITTLE
CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS. -TAD
AVIATION...15/12Z TAFS...MARINE STRATUS HAS BROUGHT LIFR CONDITIONS
TO THE NORTH BEND TERMINAL EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS LAYER LOOKS TO
STAY IN PLACE INTO THE LATE MORNING BEFORE CLEARING OUT. A ROUND OF
GUSTY WINDS WILL AFFECT COASTAL AREAS IN THE AFTERNOON, WITH WINDS
EASING IN THE EVENING. PERIODS OF LOWER VISIBILITIES COULD RETURN TO
NORTH BEND TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
INLAND AREAS LOOK TO REMAIN AT VFR LEVELS UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND WITH
NORMAL BREEZES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. -TAD
MARINE...UPDATED 300 AM PDT TUESDAY, SEPTEMBER 15, 2026...GUSTY
NORTH WINDS AND STEEP TO VERY STEEP SEAS WILL CONTINUE TODAY. PEAK
WINDS ARE EXPECTED SOUTH OF GOLD BEACH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ON WEDNESDAY, GUSTY WINDS EXPAND TO THE NORTH AND BUILD STEEP SEAS
IN ALL WATERS. STEEP SEAS MAY CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY BEFORE WINDS
AND SEAS EASE TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT
WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ356-
376.
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