398
FXUS66 KMFR 190011
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
511 PM PDT WED MAR 18 2026
UPDATE
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED.
DISCUSSION
FOUR NEW DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS WERE SET AND ONE RECORD
WAS TIED TUESDAY AS THE STRONG RIDGE SETTLED OVER NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHERN OREGON. THIS RIDGE WILL REMAIN UNUSUALLY
STRONG FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE EXTREME FORECAST INDEX(EFI) IS
SHOWING WIDESPREAD VALUES OF 1 TODAY AND AGAIN FRIDAY, SUGGESTING
THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE ALL EXCEEDING THE MODEL CLIMATOLOGY
ACROSS THE REGION. THE 500 MB HEIGHTS AROUND 586DM ARE ALSO IN
THE EXTREMES OF CLIMATOLOGY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR IN NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL RESULT IN DAYTIME TEMPERATURES PUSHING 15 TO
25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID MARCH.
THEREFORE, WE'LL BREAK OR COME VERY CLOSE TO BREAKING RECORDS AT
ALL OUR CLIMATE SITES THIS AFTERNOON, EXCEPT FOR NORTH BEND,
AS IT WILL BE COVERED IN STRATUS AND WITHIN THE MARINE LAYER FOR
PART OF THE DAY.
ALTURAS' RECORD OF 73 WILL FALL TO A HIGH AROUND 80.
MOUNT SHASTA CITY'S RECORD OF 74 WILL FALL TO A HIGH AROUND 83.
MONTAGUE'S RECORD OF 77 WILL PROBABLY FALL TO A HIGH AROUND 81.
MEDFORD'S RECORD OF 80 COULD BE TIED OR PERHAPS FALL.
KLAMATH FALLS' RECORD OF 74 WILL FALL TO A HIGH AROUND 78.
ROSEBURG'S RECORD OF 80 COULD BE TIED OR PERHAPS FALL.
THE UPPER AIR PATTERN DOESN'T CHANGE AT ALL HEADING INTO THURSDAY,
ALTHOUGH TROUGHING IN THE PACIFIC WILL HELP BREAK DOWN THIS RIDGE
SLIGHTLY BY FRIDAY. DURING THIS TIME, TEMPERATURES WILL JUST
NUDGE DOWN A BIT IN OREGON, ALTHOUGH CALIFORNIA STILL SEEMS RATHER
WARM DURING FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
EVENTUALLY, A SHORT WAVE WILL PUSH THROUGH OREGON LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL
ACCOMPANY THIS SHORT WAVE AND WE DO HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN
OVER LOCATIONS WEST OF THE CASCADES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING. CONDITIONS DRY OUT TO THE SOUTH AND EAST AS THIS FRONT
PROGRESSES THROUGH OREGON.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT, LOW DAYTIME HUMIDITIES AND GUSTY WINDS WILL
LEAD TO ENHANCED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS EATS OF THE CASCADES,
ESPECIALLY IN LAKE AND EASTERN KLAMATH COUNTIES, WHERE GREEN UP
HAS YET TO OCCUR, AND MUCH OF THE FUELS ARE DRY. CONDITIONS
IMPROVE SLIGHTLY FRIDAY, BUT WILL REMAIN A CONCERN.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TOWARDS MORE SEASONAL VALUES THIS WEEKEND
BEHIND THE FRONT.
THE WEATHER AROUND TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IS A LITTLE MORE
UNCERTAIN. ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE SHOWING A LOW OF VARIOUS
STRENGTHS DEEPENING IN THE GULF OF ALASKA OFF THE BC COASTLINE.
ABOUT 15% SHOW A LOW AROUND 950 TO 960 MB WHILE ABOUT 20% SHOW
960 TO 970MB WITH THE OTHERS SHOWING SOMETHING SIGNIFICANTLY
WEAKER AND A MINORITY SHOWING NOTHING AT ALL. WE FEEL PRETTY
CONFIDENT THE LATEST GFS IS OUT TO LUNCH AS IT MUCH CLOSER TO
SHORE COMPARED TO THE REST OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. OVERALL, WE'LL
LIKELY SEE ANOTHER COLD FRONT OR PERHAPS AN OCCLUDED FRONT PUSH
THROUGH LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE NBM IS PREDICTING
PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION AROUND 70 PERCENT ALONG THE COAST AND
30 PERCENT INLAND DURING TUESDAY WITH SNOW LEVELS DROPPING RAPIDLY
DOWN TO 4500 FEET ON WEDNESDAY. THE AMOUNT OF SNOW COULD BE
NOTHING TO A FEW INCHES IN THE CASCADES WITH THE WEATHER MID WEEK.
-SMITH/BPN
AVIATION...19/00Z TAFS
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
MOST INLAND AREAS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. ALONG THE COAST AND OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS, EXPECT A MIX OF LIFR AND IFR CONDITIONS IN
MARINE STRATUS THAT WILL MOVE ONSHORE EARLY THIS EVENING AND SPREAD
INTO THE COASTAL VALLEYS TONIGHT INTO AND THURSDAY MORNING. THIS
WILL BE WIDESPREAD NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO, INCLUDING NORTH BEND, BUT
ALSO EXPECT AREAS OF IFR/LIFR SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO TONIGHT/THURSDAY
MORNING. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BURN OFF ALONG THE COAST LATE
THURSDAY MORNING WITH CONDITIONS LIFTING TO VFR.
MARINE...UPDATED 200 PM PDT WEDNESDAY, MARCH 18, 2026
CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. A THERMAL
TROUGH DEVELOPS EARLY SATURDAY, BRINGING GUSTY NORTH WINDS WITH
GALES POSSIBLE INTO SUNDAY, AND STEEP TO VERY STEEP SEAS POSSIBLE
INTO MONDAY. THE OUTLOOK IS FOR CONDITIONS TO BRIEFLY IMPROVE MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WITH RAPIDLY BUILDING
SEAS. ADVISORY STRENGTH WINDS ARE LIKELY, AND THERE IS A CHANCE OF
GALES ON TUESDAY. THE WEST SWELL DOMINATED SEAS THAT FOLLOW MAY
BECOME HIGH AND STEEP TO VERY STEEP TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
WEDNESDAY.
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM TO 8 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR ORZ624-625.
CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
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