541
FXUS66 KMFR 072038
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
138 PM PDT TUE APR 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
-ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY.
-CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
-A STRONGER, MOISTER SYSTEM ARRIVES ON THE WEEKEND WITH SHOWERS
LIKELY AND A CHANCE FOR EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS.
DISCUSSION
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS IN PLACE TODAY BRINGING WARM
AND DRY WEATHER TO THE AREA. THE PATTERN WILL CHANGE AS TWO UPPER
LEVEL LOWS MOVES INTO THE REGION THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THE
FIRST IS AN UPPER LOW THAT APPROACHES THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
COAST ON WEDNESDAY AND REMAINS IN PLACE THURSDAY, BEFORE GRADUALLY
MOVING INLAND TO THE SOUTH ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL WILL SEND
SOUTHERLY MOISTURE INTO THE AREA BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AND
CONTINUING ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, RESULTING IN A SHOWERY PATTERN
WITH CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS INDICATE SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY AND CAPE TO ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP, INITIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY THEN FOR MOST THE AREA ON
THURSDAY. FOR WEDNESDAY, THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ACROSS
SISKIYOU, MODOC, SOUTHERN KLAMATH AND SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTIES. ON
THURSDAY, MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INCREASES WITH HIGHER CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS (40-70%) AND THUNDERSTORMS (15-30%) ACROSS MOST THE
AREA. ALTHOUGH THE BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ACROSS
INLAND AREAS, THERE IS A LOW CHANCE (10-15%) FOR THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG THE COAST.
GENERALLY LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. HOWEVER, BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THUNDERSTORMS. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH GUSTY OUTFLOWS TO AROUND
30-40 MPH.
ON FRIDAY, AS THE LOW GRADUALLY MOVES INLAND TO THE SOUTH, THE
AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER A SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FLOW PATTERN WITH
SHOWERS LIKELY AND CONTINUED CHANCES (20-30%) FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
NEXT, MODELS AND ENSEMBLES THEN SHOW A STRONGER LOW MOVING IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST TOWARDS THE COAST ON FRIDAY NIGHT THEN INLAND
INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST OREGON ON SATURDAY. MODELS
ARE CONTINUING TO SHOW VARIABILITY ON THE TRACK OF THIS LOW WHICH
WILL BE A FACTOR IN HOW MUCH SHOWERS AND RAINFALL OCCURS SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY. THE NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS (NBM) INDICATES HIGH
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS (60-90%) ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY WITH LOW
CHANCES (10-15%) FOR THUNDERSTORMS. SNOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO
LOWER SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE NATIONAL BLEND OF
MODELS FORECASTING SNOW LEVELS OF 3500-5000 FEET. WITH THE LOW
MOVING INLAND TO THE SOUTH ON SUNDAY AND A TROUGH OVER THE AREA,
EXPECT A MIX OF RAIN AND MOUNTAIN/HIGHER TERRAIN SNOW SHOWERS.
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED TO HIGHER MOUNTAINS
THOUGH. THE CURRENT FORECAST INDICATES AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW AT
LAKE OF THE WOODS AND 4-5 INCHES AT CRATER LAKE SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING. AS THE LOW DIGS SOUTHWARD ON SUNDAY THEN
SHIFTS EAST ON MONDAY, EXPECT SHOWER COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS TO
DECREASE. ON MONDAY, MOIST, ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW FOR
LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY, WITH THE NBM SHOWING 10-30% CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA.
PREV LONG TERM DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 243 PM PDT MON APR 6 2026/
LOW PRESSURE RESPONSIBLE THE LATE WEEK THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHIFTS
SOUTHWARD ON SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE FROM THE NORTH DIGS SOUTHWARD.
RECENT GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED FARTHER SOUTH WITH THIS DIGGING LOW.
THIS WOULD RESULT IN MORE INTERACTION WITH THE DEPARTING LOW, AND
WITH BETTER DYNAMICS OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY, THERE COULD BE
MORE WIDESPREAD BENEFICIAL RAINFALL FOR MORE OF THE AREA. IT STILL
LOOKS LIKE THE ATMOSPHERE WILL STABILIZE SATURDAY COMPARED TO
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, WITH MORE OF A WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS PATTERN VS A SOUTHERLY FLOW THUNDERSTORM PATTERN. WITH
THE "DIGGING FARTHER SOUTH" TREND, SHOWERS LINGER INTO SUNDAY,
THOUGH DIMINISH IN COVERAGE LATE IN THE DAY AND EVEN MORESO INTO
MONDAY. HOPEFULLY, THE "DIGGING FARTHER SOUTH" TREND DOESN'T
CONTINUE WITH SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS, BECAUSE THEN PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL DWINDLE FOR THE WEEKEND. AS CURRENTLY DEPICTED, THE
NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS GIVING ABOUT A 50-70% CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE WHOLE AREA ON SATURDAY, THEN LOWERS TO 30-
50% FOR SUNDAY AND 15-30% FOR MONDAY. SNOW LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO
LOWER TO AROUND 4500-5000 FT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, BUT WITH
PRECIPITATION WINDING DOWN AS SNOW LEVELS LOWER, SNOW AMOUNTS ARE
CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND
SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER OVER THE WEEKEND, AND IT WILL FEEL PRETTY COOL
DUE TO HOW WARM IT CURRENTLY IS. IN REALITY, HOWEVER, HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL SIMPLY RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL VALUES OVER THE
WEEKEND (MID 50S EAST, MID 60S WEST).
WHILE DETAILS ARE HIGHLY VARIABLE AT THIS POINT IN TIME, BOTH GFS
AND EC ENSEMBLES MAINTAIN PERIODS OF WET WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES
CLOSER TO SEASONABLE VALUES BEYOND THE WEEKEND AND THROUGH NEXT
WEEK. THIS LINES UP WELL WITH THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER'S 8-14
DAY OUTLOOK WHICH PREDICTS TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION BOTH
LEANING TOWARD ABOVE NORMAL VALUES (30-50% CHANCE). -BRY
AVIATION...07/18Z TAFS
ALONG THE COAST, THE MARINE LAYER WILL
GRADUALLY LIFT AND CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON WITH AREAS OF IFR/MVFR
CEILINGS TODAY. INLAND, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. EXPECT SOME GUSTY WINDS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON, BOTH
ALONG THE COAST AND EAST OF THE CASCADES. WINDS WILL EASE AFTER
SUNSET, AND THE MARINE LAYER IS LIKELY TO RETURN TO THE COAST AGAIN
AFTER 03Z, BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF IFR CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY
FOR AREAS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO.
MARINE...UPDATED 100 PM PDT TUESDAY, APRIL 7, 2026
AREAS OF GUSTY
NORTH WINDS WITH BORDERLINE ADVISORY LEVEL STEEP SEAS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP TODAY INTO TONIGHT, WITH STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE OUTER
WATERS AND NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO. WINDS WEAKEN AND SEAS BECOME LESS
STEEP LATE IN THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING. NORTHERLY
WINDS AND SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS LOW
MOVES INLAND SOUTH OF THE AREA. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE (10-15%) FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND JUST OFF THE COAST ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. A STRONGER LOW MOVES OVER THE AREA ON THE WEEKEND,
BRINGING SHOWERS AND INCREASED WEST SEAS.
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...NONE.
CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM PDT
WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
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