371
FXUS66 KMFR 161124
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
324 AM PST FRI JAN 16 2026
DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION
AVIATION...16/12Z TAFS
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT JUST OFF THE PACNW
COAST AND A THERMAL TROUGH ALONG THE COAST ARE BRINGING MOSTLY
MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW ACROSS INTERIOR SW OREGON AND NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA. MOST AREAS ARE VFR, BUT PERSISTENT LIFR LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG ARE IMPACTING THE UMPQUA BASIN AND ROGUE VALLEY, INCLUDING
ROSEBURG AND MEDFORD. LIFR WILL PERSIST TONIGHT BARRING ANY MORE
SOUTH WIND, BUT WE'LL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND AMEND AS NECESSARY.
ROSEBURG LOOKS PRETTY SOCKED IN, SO EXPECT LIFR TO CONTINUE THROUGH
MOST OF, IF NOT ALL OF, TODAY.
LOW CLOUD/FOG IS IN THE ILLINOIS VALLEY AS WELL, ESPECIALLY AROUND
CAVE JUNCTION AND THESE WILL LAST UNTIL MID-LATE MORNING BEFORE
ERODING AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.
WITH OFFSHORE FLOW, THERE IS LESS CLOUD COVER/FOG ALONG THE COAST
COMPARED TO PREVIOUS NIGHTS, THOUGH PATCHY FOG OR MIST COULD DEVELOP
IN THE COQUILLE VALLEY AT NIGHT. THE REST OF THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN
VFR TODAY.
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES OFFSHORE FLOW EASING AS THE THERMAL TROUGH
WEAKENS TODAY. THIS COULD LEAD TO A SOUTHERLY STRATUS SURGE UP THE
COAST OR THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 217 AM PST FRI JAN 16 2026/
DISCUSSION...OBSERVATIONS FOR WEST SIDE VALLEYS SHOW IT WAS YET
ANOTHER DAY OF BEING SOCKED IN THE BY THE FOG FOR MOST OF THE DAY.
THE ILLINOIS VALLEY WAS ONE OF THE ONLY SPOTS ABLE TO BREAK FREE
IN THE LATE MORNING BEFORE RETURNING TO FOG AROUND 9 PM. SUB-
FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN THE ROGUE AND ILLINOIS VALLEYS ARE
LEADING TO FREEZING FOG IN THE AREA. LOW CLOUDS ARE PRESENT ACROSS
THE UMPQUA BASIN AS WELL. OTHER THAN A FEW PASSING HIGH CLOUDS,
CLEAR SKIES ARE FOUND.
THE FREEZING FOG ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ROGUE, ILLINOIS
AND SCOTT VALLEYS AND UMPQUA BASIN THROUGH 20Z. PLEASE REMEMBER THAT
ANYWHERE THAT HAS FREEZING FOG COULD HAVE ICY SURFACES. NIGHTTIME
MICROPHYSICS AS OF 2:15 AM SHOWED LESS OF A LOW CLOUD/FOG LAYER IN
THE SCOTT VALLEY, SO WILL BE REVIEWING THIS BEFORE THE MORNING AS
THEY MAY BE REMOVED FIRST FROM THE FREEZING FOG ADVISORY.
IF YOU'VE BEEN UNDER THIS PERSISTENT FOG, YOU'RE PROBABLY THINKING
AS SMASH MOUTH WOULD- WE COULD ALL USE A LITTLE CHANGE.
UNFORTUNATELY, ONCE THE RIDGES START COMING, THEY DON'T STOP COMING.
YOU MAY WANT TO HIT THE GROUND RUNNING OUT WEST FOR SOME WARMTH AND
SUN AT THE COAST THIS WEEKEND.
ONCE AGAIN, THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD THE WEATHER PATTERN
OF STRONG INVERSIONS AND STAGNANT AIR THAT LEADS TO
EVENING/OVERNIGHT FOG FOR WEST SIDE VALLEYS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. A THERMAL TROUGH IS HELPING WARM TEMPERATURES AT THE COAST TO
THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S THIS WEEKEND! 50S WILL BE FOUND EAST OF THE
CASCADES.
EVEN IF THERE IS CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON, FOG WILL QUICKLY RETURN TO
THE SAME SPOTS THIS EVENING. GRIDS HAVE BEEN EDITED TO INCLUDE
SIMILAR SCENARIOS OF FOG AND FREEZING FOG IN THE ROGUE AND ILLINOIS
VALLEYS AND UMPQUA BASIN FOR THIS EVENING/TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN IN CONTROL FOR THE NEXT WEEK, ALTHOUGH THERE
COULD BE A DISTURBANCE THAT FINALLY REACHES THE WESTERN US NEXT
WEEKEND. OTHER THAN THAT, THERE WILL BE DRY CONDITIONS EVERYWHERE
AND FOG IN WEST SIDE VALLEYS. -HERMANSEN
MARINE...UPDATED 215 AM PST FRIDAY, JANUARY 16, 2026...SEAS HAVE
BEEN IMPROVING WITH WAVE HEIGHTS BECOMING RELATIVELY LOW TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS A CHANCE
OF SOME ACTIVE WEATHER ARRIVING BY THURSDAY. -SMITH/HERMANSEN
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...FREEZING FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PST TODAY FOR ORZ023-024-026.
AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST TUESDAY FOR ORZ023-024-
026-029>031.
CA...FREEZING FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PST TODAY FOR CAZ080.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
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