253  
FXUS66 KMFR 240547  
AFDMFR  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR  
1047 PM PDT THU OCT 23 2025  
   
DISCUSSION
 
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION, MARINE AND BEACH  
HAZARDS SECTIONS.  
 

 
   
AVIATION...24/06Z TAFS
 
VFR PREVAILS AREA WIDE, EXCEPT AREAS OF  
MVFR CLOUDS ARE PRESENT ALONG THE COAST AND MARINE WATERS. A  
FRONTAL SYSTEM WELL OFFSHORE WILL GRADUALLY APPROACH THE COAST  
TONIGHT AND SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND  
THE BEACHES, THEN BECOME GUSTY FRIDAY MORNING. LOW-LEVEL WIND  
SHEAR WILL BE A RISK, ESPECIALLY AT COASTAL AIRPORTS (NORTH  
BEND/BROOKINGS), AS WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE, AROUND 2000 FT,  
WILL BE IN THE 40-50 KT RANGE. THE LLWS THREAT COULD ALSO BE  
PRESENT INLAND AROUND ROSEBURG DURING THE AFTERNOON. STRONGER  
SURFACE WINDS WILL ALSO DEVELOP IN THE SHASTA VALLEY AND OVER THE  
EAST SIDE FRIDAY AFTERNOON, WHERE WIND GUSTS OF 30-40 KT WILL BE  
COMMON. AS THE FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE COAST, EXPECT  
CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES TO LOWER TO MVFR IN RAIN/FOG. THESE MORE  
WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS WILL SPREAD INLAND WEST OF THE CASCADES  
FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGHER TERRAIN BECOMING OBSCURED. EAST SIDE  
AREAS WILL STAY VFR THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. -SPILDE  
 

 
   
MARINE...UPDATED 800 PM PDT THURSDAY, OCTOBER 23, 2025
 
A HIGH AND  
STEEP LONG PERIOD SWELL WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. THE FIRST  
IN A SERIES OF FRONTS WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO  
FRIDAY AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AHEAD OF THE  
FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. AS THE FRONT NEARS THE COAST EARLY  
FRIDAY MORNING, A COASTAL JET WILL SET UP NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO,  
RESULTING IN A PERIOD OF SOUTHERLY GALES. SEAS WILL ALSO BECOME VERY  
STEEP AND HAZARDOUS BUILDING TO 15 TO 20 FT FRIDAY DUE TO A  
COMBINATION OF SOUTHERLY WIND WAVES AND LONG PERIOD SWELL. WINDS  
EASE FOR A BRIEF PERIOD FRIDAY EVENING, BUT SEAS WILL REMAIN HIGH  
AND STEEP INTO SATURDAY MORNING.  
 
THERE'S GOOD AGREEMENT THAT STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM AND MOVE  
INSIDE OF 130W EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, AND MOVE ONSHORE INTO  
NORTHWEST WASHINGTON EARLY SATURDAY EVENING. A SECOND, QUICK-MOVING  
FRONT IS EXPECTED SATURDAY, LIKELY BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF GALES  
TO MOST OF THE AREA WATERS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AND A GALE WATCH  
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF THE WATERS STARTING EARLY SATURDAY  
MORNING. IT'S LIKELY THE GALE WATCH WILL BE UPGRADED TO A WARNING AT  
SOME POINT IN THE NEAR FUTURE. WINDS WILL SHIFT SOUTHWEST LATER  
SATURDAY MORNING, BUT THERE COULD BE BURST OF STRONG WINDS BEHIND  
THE FRONT SATURDAY AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO.  
 
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH BELOW GALES SATURDAY EVENING, BUT SEAS  
ARE EXPECTED TO BE VERY HAZARDOUS, THEREFORE A HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCH  
HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED ONCE THE GALES END.  
 
OVERALL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE WEEK AS SEAS  
GRADUALLY LOWER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY DURING A RELATIVE BREAK IN THE  
WEATHER. ACTIVE WEATHER COULD RETURN BY TUESDAY. -PETRUCELLI/SPILDE  
 

 
   
BEACH HAZARDS...UPDATED 900 PM PDT THURSDAY, OCTOBER 23, 2025
 
 
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  
MODERATE TO HEAVY LONG PERIOD WEST SWELL IS ALREADY PRESENT RANGING  
FROM 11-17FT OVER THE WATERS THIS EVENING. SINCE HIGH WAVE HEIGHTS  
ARE EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND, WE'VE OPTED TO  
MAINTAIN THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY TO COVER THE LONG  
DURATION THREAT. IMPACTS INCLUDE LARGE BREAKING WAVES OF 20-25 FT  
WITHIN THE SURF ZONE, WHICH COULD INUNDATE BEACHES AND LOW LYING  
SHORELINES. WAVES COULD WASH OVER ROCKS AND JETTIES, BEACH EROSION  
IS POSSIBLE, AND EXPOSED INFRASTRUCTURE MAY BE DAMAGED. THERE IS A  
HIGH RISK OF SNEAKER WAVES DURING LULLS IN HIGH SURF. CURRENTLY IT  
LOOKS LIKE THE STORM SYSTEM EXPECTED ON SATURDAY WILL BRING THE MOST  
HAZARDOUS SURF CONDITIONS, AND WE MAY NEED TO CONSIDER A HIGH SURF  
WARNING FOR THE POTENTIAL OF LARGE BREAKING WAVES UP TO 30 FT. RIGHT  
NOW CURRENT GUIDANCE KEEPS IT BELOW 30 FEET, BUT THIS COULD CHANGE.  
STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES. -PETRUCELLI/SPILDE  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 450 PM PDT THU OCT 23 2025/  
 
DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.  
 
AVIATION...24/00Z TAFS...VFR PREVAILS AREA WIDE, EXCEPT AREAS OF  
MVFR CLOUDS ARE PRESENT ALONG THE COAST AND MARINE WATERS. A  
FRONTAL SYSTEM WELL OFFSHORE WILL GRADUALLY APPROACH THE COAST  
TONIGHT AND SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND  
THE BEACHES, THEN BECOME GUSTY FRIDAY MORNING. LOW-LEVEL WIND  
SHEAR WILL BE A RISK, ESPECIALLY AT COASTAL AIRPORTS (NORTH  
BEND/BROOKINGS), AS WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE, AROUND 2000 FT,  
WILL BE IN THE 40-50 KT RANGE. THE LLWS THREAT COULD ALSO BE  
PRESENT INLAND AROUND ROSEBURG DURING THE AFTERNOON. STRONGER  
SURFACE WINDS WILL ALSO DEVELOP IN THE SHASTA VALLEY AND OVER THE  
EAST SIDE FRIDAY AFTERNOON, WHERE WIND GUSTS OF 30-40 KT WILL BE  
COMMON. AS THE FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE COAST, EXPECT  
CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES TO LOWER TO MVFR IN RAIN/FOG. THESE MORE  
WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS WILL SPREAD INLAND WEST OF THE CASCADES  
FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGHER TERRAIN BECOMING OBSCURED. EAST SIDE  
AREAS WILL STAY VFR THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. -SPILDE  
 
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 221 PM PDT THU OCT 23 2025/  
 
DISCUSSION...  
 
KEY POINTS:  
 
* STRONG WINDS FRIDAY, SATURDAY, AND SUNDAY  
- HIGH WIND WARNING FOR AREAS ALONG/NEAR THE COAST SAT.  
- WIND ADVISORY FOR EASTSIDE AREAS AND SHASTA VALLEY SAT.  
* MULTI-DAY RAINFALL EVENT FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY  
- HEAVIEST AMOUNTS ACROSS COASTAL CURRY COUNTY  
- NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD FLOODING (RIVERS TOO LOW)  
* NUISANCE TYPE FLOODING POSSIBLE  
- PONDING ON ROADWAYS  
- SMALL CREEKS/STREAMS COULD EXPERIENCE LOCALIZED FLOODING  
* HIGH ELEVATION SNOWFALL MAINLY ABOVE 4500 FT  
 
FURTHER DETAILS:  
 
FOCUS WILL BE ON THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN SHAPING UP TO IMPACT THE  
REGION STARTING TOMORROW (FRIDAY) AS A WEAK/MODERATE ATMOSPHERIC  
RIVER DEVELOPS. THIS WILL BRING MULTIPLE HAZARDS TO THE AREA AS  
SHOWN ABOVE IN THE KEY POINTS SECTION AND WILL BE A MULTI-DAY EVENT.  
THINGS WILL BEGIN TO SETTLE DOWN ON MONDAY WITH HAZARDS DIMINISHING  
FOR INLAND AREAS.  
 
A VERY BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC ROTATION WILL DEVELOP IN THE GULF OF  
ALASKA TONIGHT AND WILL ESSENTIALLY DOMINATE OUR WEATHER PATTERN FOR  
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS LOW WILL GENERALLY MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD  
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH SMALLER WAVES EJECTING OUT AHEAD OF THIS  
MAIN CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA. THIS WILL  
RESULT IN A LONG DURATION PRECIPITATION EVENT. PRESSURE GRADIENTS  
ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST WILL BE STRONG AS A SURFACE LOW ENTERS THE  
REGION, ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY WHEN THE WIND SPEEDS WILL BE AT THEIR  
PEAK. FOR SATURDAY SPECIFICALLY, WE HAVE ISSUED A HIGH WIND WARNING  
FOR AREAS NEAR THE COAST AND HEADLAND AREAS, AND THERE WILL BE A  
WIND ADVISORY FOR EASTSIDE AREAS AND SHASTA VALLEY. FRONTOGENESIS  
COUPLED WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES, STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION, AND  
OVERALL STRONG FORCING ALOFT WILL LEAD TO WIDEPSREAD PRECIPITATION  
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. COASTAL AREAS OF CURRY COUNTY COULD SEE  
RAINFALL AMOUNTS AROUND 4 INCHES WHEN ITS ALL SAID AND DONE MONDAY  
MORNING. PEAK RAINFALL RATES WILL LIKELY COME IN TWO ROUNDS. FIRST  
IS FRIDAY EVENING (5PM-11PM) AND THEN SATURDAY MORNING (6AM-10AM).  
THESE TWO TIME PERIODS COULD SEE RAINFALL RATES AROUND 0.50" PER  
HOUR. CURRENTLY, RIVERS ARE RUNNING LOW COMING OUT OF SUMMER, SO WE  
ARE NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD FLOODING. THAT SAID, SMALL  
CREEKS/STREAMS COULD EXPERIENCE LOCALIZED FLOODING, ESPECIALLY IN  
AREAS WITH POOR DRAINAGE. OTHERWISE, MOST OF THIS EVENT WILL BE  
NUISANCE TYPE FLOODING WITH PONDING ON ROADWAYS. THIS MEANS ROADS  
COULD BE HAZARDOUS DURING RAINFALL SO DRIVING WITH CAUTION IS  
ADVISED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  
 
FOR SNOWFALL, THIS EVENT WILL LIKELY IMPACT AREAS MAINLY ABOVE 4500  
FEET. THAT SAID, SNOW LEVEL COULD BE AS LOW AS 4200 FEET. IMPACTS  
WILL BE MOSTLY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN; HOWEVER, SINCE THIS IS THE  
FIRST EVENT OF THE YEAR WE DECIDED TO LEAN ON CAUTION AND ISSUED  
AN ADVISORY FOR THIS SNOWFALL EVENT. GIVEN WIND GUSTS AROUND 60  
MPH, THERE COULD BE VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AS WELL. GROUND  
TEMPERATURES ARE STILL A LITTLE WARM, SO ACCUMULATIONS MAY  
STRUGGLE AT FIRST, BUT THE DURATION SHOULD HELP COOL THE COLUMN  
AND GROUND TEMPERATURES SUFFICIENT FOR ACCUMULATIONS SATURDAY INTO  
SUNDAY. ALSO OF CONCERN WILL BE HIGHWAY 140 NEAR LAKE OF THE  
WOODS WHERE AMOUNTS COULD BE AROUND 3 TO 5 INCHES. CAUTION SHOULD  
BE TAKEN IF TRAVELING THROUGH AREAS WITH SNOWFALL BECAUSE EVEN  
SMALL AMOUNTS OF SNOWFALL ON THE ROAD CAN LEAD TO SLIPPERY  
CONDITIONS. SATURDAY MORNING AROUND 11AM THROUGH ABOUT 2AM ON  
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING COULD SEE SNOWFALL RATES AROUND 1.5"  
PER HOUR AT TIMES WITH SATURDAY EVENING LIKELY HAVING THE HIGHEST  
SNOWFALL RATES. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS ISSUED TO ACCOUNT  
FOR THIS TIME PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOWFALL COUPLED WITH STRONG WIND  
GUSTS AROUND 50-60 MPH WHICH MAY LEAD TO BLOWING SNOW. HIGHWAY 140  
MAY SEE GUSTS AROUND 30-35 MPH WHICH MAY LEAD TO SOME VISIBILITY  
RESTRICTIONS AS WELL.  
 
IMPACTS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO  
BUILD IN OVER THE REGION.  
 
-GUERRERO  
 

 
   
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
OR...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 PM FRIDAY TO 8 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR ORZ030-  
031.  
 
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR ORZ021-022.  
 
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 5 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR ORZ021-022.  
 
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 AM SATURDAY TO 5 PM PDT SUNDAY  
FOR ORZ027-028.  
 
CA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 PM FRIDAY TO 8 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR CAZ081-  
085.  
 
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM PDT SATURDAY  
FOR PZZ356-376.  
 
GALE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR  
PZZ350-356-370-376.  
 
HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE  
SATURDAY NIGHT FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.  
 
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR PZZ350-370.  
 
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM FRIDAY TO 5 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR  
PZZ350-370.  
 
GALE WARNING FROM 5 AM TO 5 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR PZZ350-370.  
 

 
 

 
 
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