593
FXUS66 KMFR 070535
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
935 PM PST THU NOV 6 2025
..NEW AVIATION SECTION
AVIATION (06Z TAFS)
LINGERING SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. SATURATION IN THE LOW LEVELS IS EXPECTED TO LEAD
TO VALLEY FOG (IFR) FOR WESTSIDE AREAS THAT INCLUDE BOTH KRBG AND
KMFR. CHANCES ARE AROUND 60% FOR IFR VISIBILITIES. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY TONIGHT REGARDING VISIBILITIES AS HIGH CLOUD COVER
MAY INHIBIT FOG FORMATION TO SOME DEGREE, BUT CONFIDENCE WAS HIGH
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THIS CYCLE. THAT SAID, SUBSEQUENT AMENDMENTS
MAY BE NECESSARY IF CONDITIONS DON'T DETERIORATE. OTHERWISE, SKIES
WILL CLEAR OUT TOMORROW LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY
HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED AND LIGHT WIND SPEEDS.
-GUERRERO
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 236 PM PST THU NOV 6 2025/
DISCUSSION...FOG HAS LIFTED THIS MORNING AND MOSTLY CLOUDY TO
OVERCAST SKIES ARE PRESENT FOR THE AFTERNOON. A FRONT IS ARRIVING
AT THE COAST AND CAMS ARE MATCHING THIS INCOMING SYSTEM WELL. THIS
WILL KEEP MOVING INLAND THIS AFTERNOON, AND A MAJORITY OF THE
FORECAST AREA WILL RECEIVE RAIN AS SNOW LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO
REMAIN ABOVE 7,500' THROUGH THIS. THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT BE AS
STRONG AS YESTERDAY'S, BUT IT WILL STILL BRING HEAVIER RAIN TO
PARTS OF THE CURRY COUNTY COAST, WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY, AND THE
CASCADES. THERE IS A 80-95% CHANCE FOR THE SOUTHERN OREGON COAST
AND A 60-70% CHANCE FOR WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY TO SEE AN INCH OF
RAIN BETWEEN 4 AM TODAY AND 4 AM FRIDAY. THE TIMEFRAME WHERE
WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY RECEIVES THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL BE
BETWEEN 5-10 PM TODAY.
ANOTHER IMPACT FROM THIS FRONT IS STRENGTHENING WINDS. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL GUST NEAR 30-40 MPH AT THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST
700 MB WINDS ARE SHOWING 40-50 MPH SOUTHEAST WINDS ALONG THE
CASCADES THROUGH 5 PM, SO THIS WILL BE A FACTOR AS THE AFTERNOON
CONTINUES. WINDS AT THE COAST WILL START WINDING DOWN LATER THIS
EVENING BY 10-11 PM WHILE THE CASCADES AND EAST KEEPS STRONGER WINDS
THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.
THERE WILL BE A FEW LEFTOVER SHOWERS TOMORROW MORNING, AND THEY ARE
EXPECTED TO MOSTLY BE IN DOUGLAS AND COOS COUNTIES. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FOR TONIGHT SUPPORT LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IN THE UMPQUA BASIN
AND JOSEPHINE COUNTY. FOR THE ROGUE VALLEY, WE WILL BE LOOKING TO
SEE VISIBILITY REACH 2-5 MILES DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS BEFORE
DROPPING TO UNDER 2 MILES NEAR 4 AM.
THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY, RIDGING WILL START TO BUILD AND WILL
BRING DRIER CONDITIONS TO THE AREA. CLEARING SKIES WILL ALSO BE
FOUND LATER FRIDAY, LEADING TO ANOTHER PERIOD OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
FOR VALLEYS SATURDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO 5 TO 15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, MEANING MID-/UPPER 50S EAST, 60S WEST AND NEAR
70 AT THE COAST.
THERE WILL BE A WEAK FRONT THAT MOVES IN EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT THESE
RAIN CHANCES MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WERE ADJUSTED TO KEEP RAIN CHANCES
FARTHER OFF THE COAST AS ENSEMBLES SUPPORT THIS SCENARIO. THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR MORE ACTIVITY WILL BE NEXT THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
MORE RAIN INTO THE SAME AREAS WEST OF THE CASCADES AS WE WILL SEE
TODAY. -9
AVIATION...06/18Z TAFS...SHOWERS WILL MOVE IN LATER THIS MORNING
AND CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH A COLD FRONT. THE ACTIVE
PATTERN WITH AN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT, RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE,
AND TOPOGRAPHIC EFFECTS ARE PRODUCING A WIDE RANGE OF IFR, MVFR, AND
VFR CONDITIONS TODAY. THE FOG IN MEDFORD IS LIFTING THIS MORNING,
ALTHOUGH LIFR CEILINGS ARE STILL PRESENT. THIS IS FORECAST TO
IMPROVE TO VFR BY 11 AM.
AS THE FRONT APPROACHES TODAY, WINDS WILL INCREASE, PARTICULARLY
THIS AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS LIKELY ALONG THE COAST,
OVER THE MOUNTAINS, IN THE SHASTA VALLEY AND EAST OF THE CASCADES.
RAIN WITH THE FRONT WILL REACH THE COAST AROUND NOON/20Z AND SPREAD
INLAND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXPECT DETERIORATING
CONDITIONS WITH INCREASING AREAS OF MVFR AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION.
POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
WITH CONDITIONS REMAINING MOSTLY MVFR, BUT ALSO INCREASING AREAS OF
VALLEY IFR.
MARINE...UPDATED 100 PM PDT THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 6, 2025...GALES
WITH VERY HIGH AND VERY STEEP HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL PERSIST INTO THIS
EVENING AS ANOTHER FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. HEAVY WEST
SWELL AT 15 SECONDS WILL COMBINE WITH SOUTHWEST WIND WAVES AND
MAINTAIN HIGH SURF CONDITIONS IN THE SURF ZONE AND MAKE BAR
CROSSINGS VERY DANGEROUS. THE KING TIDES ARE EXPECTED TODAY TOO,
WHICH MAY INCREASE THE IMPACT OF HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN WITH IMPROVING WEATHER FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND. LINGERING SWELL WILL MAINTAIN STEEP SEAS AND HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT LATER BY TONIGHT THAT WILL PERSIST INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS IMPROVE FOR AT LEAST A BRIEF PERIOD
LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS SWELL DOMINATED SEAS LOWER BELOW 10
FT. ANOTHER SWELL MOVES INTO THE WATERS LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY,
WITH CONDITIONS HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT POSSIBLY RETURNING. ACTIVE
WEATHER MOST LIKELY RETURNS AROUND WEDNESDAY. /BR-Y
BEACH HAZARDS/HIGH SURF...UPDATED 100 PM PDT THURSDAY, NOVEMBER
6, 2025...HAZARDOUS SURF CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS HEAVY
AS A HEAVY WEST SELL MAINTAINS LARGE BREAKING WAVE HEIGHTS OF 20-25
FT. ADDITIONALLY, KING TIDES ARE OCCURRING TODAY AND AGAIN FRIDAY,
AND THIS COULD INCREASE THE IMPACT OF HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS.
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS COULD INUNDATE BEACHES AND LOW LYING
SHORELINES. BEACH EROSION IS POSSIBLE, AND EXPOSED INFRASTRUCTURE
MAY BE DAMAGED. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS HEAVY
SWELL SEAS BEGIN TO DIMINISH.
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST FRIDAY FOR ORZ023-024-026.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR ORZ021-022.
CA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST FRIDAY FOR CAZ080-081.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM PST SATURDAY
FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
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