436
FXUS66 KMFR 302138
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
238 PM PDT THU APR 30 2026
DISCUSSION
AN UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE AREA, KEEPING WARM
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS IN THE FORECAST FOR TODAY. COASTAL
AREAS MAY REACH THE MID 60S, ALTHOUGH MARINE STRATUS MAY KEEP THINGS
COOLER NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO. WEST SIDE VALLEYS WILL BE IN THE MID
70S TO LOW 80S, WHILE VALLEYS AND BASINS TO THE EAST LOOK TO BE IN
THE HIGH 60S TO LOW 70S.
THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN THE MAIN AREA OF INTEREST FOR FRIDAY THROUGH
MONDAY, WITH A CUTOFF LOW FOLLOWING THE PACIFIC COAST TOWARDS
CALIFORNIA. FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, THE HIGHEST CHANCES (15-25%)
ARE FROM WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY TO THE CASCADES, INCLUDING JACKSON
AND EASTERN DOUGLAS COUNTY. CAPE VALUES ARE SOMEWHAT MODERATE, WITH
200-400 J/KG GENERALLY EXPECTED ON FRIDAY WITH CHANCES OF 500-600
J/KG VALUES ON SATURDAY. THIS INDICATES THAT SATURDAY COULD BE THE
MORE ACTIVE DAY, BUT NEITHER DAY HAS ANY STRONG INDICATORS OF SEVERE
ACTIVITY SO COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES SUGGEST THAT ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOP ON THESE DAYS COULD INCLUDE RAIN SHOWERS.
ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY, THE CUTOFF STARTS TO DRIFT EASTWARD OVER
CALIFORNIA WHICH WOULD BRING MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS RATHER THAN CELLULAR DEVELOPMENT. TODAY'S MODELING HAS
THE LOW DRIFTING SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH THAN WEDNESDAY'S, WHICH HAS
REDUCED THE FORECAST RAINFALL AMOUNTS SLIGHTLY. THE WARNER
MOUNTAINS, CASCADES, AND MOUNT SHASTA REGION COULD SEE 0.6 TO 0.8
INCHES OF RAINFALL ACROSS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. VALLEYS TO THE SOUTH
WILL SEE MORE RAIN (0.3 - 0.4 INCHES IN THE SHASTA VALLEY AND NEAR
ALTURAS) THAN AREAS TO THE NORTH (0.1 - 0.2 INCHES IN THE UMPQUA
VALLEY AND CHRISTMAS VALLEY). EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING OF BOTH DAYS. SUNDAY'S HIGHEST CHANCES (15-
20%) ARE OVER SISKIYOU AND MODOC COUNTIES, THEN THE HIGHEST CHANCES
(15-25%) MOVE TO THE EAST OVER MODOC AND SOUTHERN LAKE AND KLAMATH
COUNTIES.
WHILE CHANCES FOR RAIN AND LIGHTNING SHIFT FROM DAY TO DAY,
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN WARM. WEST SIDE VALLEYS AREAS MAY
SEE SOME COOLING ON MONDAY, BUT ONLY TO SEASONAL NORMS. AS THE
CUTOFF DRIFTS FARTHER EAST, AN UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES. WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY
THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. THERE'S SOME UNCERTAINTY BEYOND FRIDAY AS
THE PATTERN CONTINUES TO PROGRESS RATHER THAN FORM ANY KIND OF
BLOCKING PATTERN. LONG-TERM ENSEMBLES SHOW A SLIGHT COOLING TREND
BEYOND THE FORECAST PERIOD, BUT PRECIPITATION SIGNALS ARE FEW AND
SCATTERED AIMLESSLY IN ENSEMBLE METEOGRAMS. -TAD
AVIATION...30/18Z TAFS
IFR CEILINGS AND LOWER VISIBILITIES ARE
PRESENT AT NORTH BEND UNDER A LAYER OF MARINE STRATUS. THIS LAYER
LOOKS TO CLEAR OUT THIS AFTERNOON AS NORTHERLY WINDS PICK UP. MARINE
STRATUS AND MVFR TO IFR LEVELS LOOK TO RETURN TO COASTAL AREAS THIS
EVENING OR TONIGHT. THIS MARINE LAYER MAY ALSO REACH INTO THE UMPQUA
VALLEY, WITH A MVFR CEILING IN THE FORECAST TO INDICATE POSSIBLE
TIMING. THESE LOWER FLIGHT LEVELS MAY STICK AROUND THROUGH THE REST
OF THE TAF PERIOD.
OTHER INLAND AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY AT VFR LEVELS WITH ONLY
DIURNAL BREEZES AND HIGH CLOUDS. -TAD
MARINE...UPDATED 130 PM PDT THURSDAY, APRIL 30, 2026.
A
THERMAL TROUGH PATTERN WILL BRING GUSTY NORTH WINDS INTO SATURDAY
EVENING. THE STRONGEST WINDS AND VERY STEEP SEAS ARE EXPECTED SOUTH
OF OPHIR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY. SEAS WILL
BE STEEP ELSEWHERE. WINDS DIMINISH WHILE A LONGER PERIOD NORTHWEST
SWELL BUILDS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT, THEN BECOMES DOMINANT LATER SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY.
BEACH HAZARDS
A SHORT PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL AND A BUILDING
LONG PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL MAY COMBINE THEIR ENERGY TO PRODUCE
UNPREDICTABLE WAVES WASHING UP ON AREA BEACHES. THE RISK WILL BE
HIGHEST AROUND SUNRISE ON SUNDAY MORNING.
SNEAKER WAVES CAN RUN UP SIGNIFICANTLY FARTHER ON BEACHES THAN
NORMAL, INCLUDING OVER ROCKS AND JETTIES. THESE WAVES CAN SUDDENLY
KNOCK PEOPLE OFF OF THEIR FEET AND SWEEP THEM INTO THE OCEAN. THE
WAVES CAN ALSO MOVE LOGS OR OTHER OBJECTS WHICH COULD CRUSH OR
TRAP ANYONE CAUGHT UNDERNEATH. NEVER TURN AWAY FROM THE OCEAN!
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING FOR ORZ021-022.
CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT
SATURDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 11 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR PZZ356-376.
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