969
FXUS66 KMFR 091205
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
405 AM PST MON FEB 9 2026
DISCUSSION
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF LATER
THIS MORNING. LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL MAINLY AFFECT THE COAST,
COASTAL MOUNTAINS, UMPQUA AND SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES. OTHERWISE,
THE MAIN CONCERN TODAY WILL BE WITH MORNING FOG. PLENTIFUL
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE FROM YESTERDAYS RAINS COMBINED WITH
PARTIAL CLEARING AND LIGHT WINDS WILL BRING AREAS OF VALLEY LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG THIS MORNING. FOG AND LOW CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED
OVERNIGHT IN SOME WEST SIDE VALLEYS, AND EAST OF TH CASCADES, SUCH
AS NEAR ALTURAS. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT AND
GRADUALLY CLEAR IN THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. EXPECT
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
ON TUESDAY, A LOW APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND MOVES INTO
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL
BRING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA WITH RAIN AND MOUNTAIN
SNOW EXPECTED. SNOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR 5000 FT DURING
THIS PERIOD. BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION (60-75%) ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA ZONES. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR
MODERATE PRECIPITATION RATES IN THE MOUNT SHASTA AREA. THIS MAY
BRING MODERATE SNOW TO AREAS ABOVE 5000 FEET IN SOUTH-CENTRAL
SISKIYOU COUNTY. MODELS AND ENSEMBLES ALSO SUPPORT LIGHT RAIN AND
SNOW SPREADING INTO PARTS OF SOUTHERN OREGON WITH HIGHEST CHANCES
(50-60 PERCENT) FROM THE CASCADES EAST.
ON THURSDAY, EXPECT A BREAK IN THE ACTIVE PATTERN WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES AND VALLEY FOG. THEN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, AN UPPER
TROUGH DROPS DOWN FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA SENDING DISTURBANCES
INTO THE AREA. ENSEMBLES SHOW THIS WILL BRING A COLDER PATTERN
WITH RAIN AND SNOW LATE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THE NATIONAL
BLEND OF MODELS SUPPORTS SNOW LEVELS OF 4000 TO 5000 FEET,
LOWERING TO 3000 TO 4000 FEET LATE SATURDAY. THE COLD AND UNSTABLE
AIR MASS LINGERS ON SUNDAY WITH A DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
REGION. ENSEMBLES SUPPORT SNOW LEVELS OF AROUND 2000 TO 3000 FEET
SUNDAY WITH SHOWERS OVER THE AREA. THEN, A LOW MAY MOVE DOWN THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH AND INTO THE AREA NEXT MONDAY. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO REINFORCE THE COLD AND WET PATTERN AND POTENTIALLY
BRINGING SNOW LEVELS DOWN TO SOME WEST SIDE VALLEYS. THE MAIN
CONCERN DURING THIS PERIOD, FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY, IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SNOW, INITIALLY OVER MOUNTAIN PASSES AND EAST OF
THE CASCADES, THEN POTENTIALLY DOWN TO LOWER PASSES OR SOME WEST
SIDE VALLEYS. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE DETAILS AS THERE REMAINS
VARIABILITY IN THE ENSEMBLE FORECASTS. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
AND UPDATE AS CONFIDENCE INCREASES
AVIATION (06Z TAFS)
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE
RESULT WILL AREAS OF MVFR AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS. AREAS OF
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN VALLEYS
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING, INCLUDING AT ROSEBURG,
MEDFORD. AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE ALSO EXPECTED EAST OF THE
CASCADES AND MAY DEVELOP AT KLAMATH FALLS (25% CHANCE). SHOWERS
TAPER OFF AND LOW CLOUDS/FOG WILL LIFT IN THE LATE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON (18-21Z), WITH VFR EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AREAWIDE
MONDAY AFTERNOON.
MARINE...UPDATED 200 AM PST MONDAY, FEBRUARY 9, 2026
STEEP
WEST SEAS WILL AFFECT THE SOUTHERN OREGON COASTAL WATERS TODAY.
STEEP SEAS PERSIST WHILE WINDS TURN NORTHERLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
THEN WINDS INCREASE AND STEEP SEAS DUE TO A MIX OF WIND SEAS AND
WEST SWELL DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT,
CONTINUING THOUGH TUESDAY. CONDITIONS IMPROVE, ESPECIALLY IN THE
INNER WATERS, AT MID-WEEK AS NORTH WINDS EASE AND SEAS LOWER.
WINDS LOWER THURSDAY BUT NORTHWEST SWELL WILL BRING ELEVATED SEAS
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM PST TUESDAY
FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
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