094
FXUS66 KMFR 151035
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
335 AM PDT MON AUG 15 2022
DISCUSSION
HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES OVER THE REGION WITH UNEVENTFUL
WEATHER EXPECTED TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR-NORMAL OVER THE
WEST SIDE WHILE EAST-SIDE READINGS CLIMB TO 4-8 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. A STRENGTHENING THERMAL TROUGH OVER THE SOUTH COAST WILL
ALLOW FOR INCREASING NORTH WINDS OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS THROUGH
AFTERNOON. TUESDAY THINGS WILL CHANGE WITH SOUTH FLOW ALOFT
OVERTAKING THE REGION WITH SOME INCREASING MOISTURE AS THE CENTER
OF THE UPPER HIGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN BUDGES WEST AND NORTH.
TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE 3-5 DEGREES AREA-WIDE AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS MAY IMPACT MODOC COUNTY BY LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
INCREASING TEMPERATURES ARE STILL ON TAP FOR WEDNESDAY AS UPPER
HEIGHTS INCREASE FURTHER. THE LATEST NBM FORECASTS AREN'T TOO
DISSIMILAR FROM RECENT RUNS INDICATING THAT INTERIOR WEST SIDE
AREAS, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE UMPQUA, WILL CLIMB WELL INTO THE
TRIPLE DIGITS. THE MOST LIKELY NBM FORECAST IS ABOUT 105 FOR
MEDFORD, WHILE THE UPPER QUARTER OF THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE
INDICATING THAT HIGHS COULD HIT 107+ IN MEDFORD. A HEAT ADVISORY
ISSUANCE IS LIKELY. THE WESTERN REGION HEAT RISK IMAGES INDICATE
THAT JACKSON COUNTY, THE KLAMATH BASIN, AND AREAS FROM THE SHASTA
VALLEY WESTWARD IN SISKIYOU COUNTY WILL BE THE STRONGEST
CANDIDATES FOR THIS HIGHLIGHT. THE HEADLINE COULD PERSIST IN TO
THURSDAY.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE NUMEROUS AND SPREAD
NORTH AND WEST ON WEDNESDAY. SOUTH FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BRING IN
APPRECIABLE MOISTURE SO ANY STORMS THAT BEGIN AS DRY SHOULD
TRANSITION TO WEST. PRECIPITATABLE WATER VALUES LOOK TO INCREASE
TO AROUND .80" OVER THE EAST AND UPWARDS OF 1" OVER THE WEST, SO
HEAVY RAIN WILL ACTUALLY BE POSSIBLE DESPITE THE DEEP SUB-CLOUD
DRY LAYER. WE SHOULD BE CONCERNED WITH GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WITH
THIS SETUP, WITH AN "INVERTED-V" SOUNDING TYPE. THE DRY AND
UNSTABLE LOWER ATMOSPHERIC LAYER, LIGHTNING POTENTIAL, AND GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS SHOULD ALL BE OF HEIGHTENED CONCERN FOR FIRE WEATHER
INTERESTS. SEE FIRE WEATHER PORTION AND HEADLINE BELOW. SOME
THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES WERE INCREASED A BIT FOR SOUTHWEST
OREGON AND NORTHWEST CA TO INCLUDE A MENTION, I.E. 15-20 PERCENT.
STORMS MAY CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN UNSTABLE WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
IN ADDITION, A SHORT WAVE MOVING UP FROM COASTAL NORTHERN CA WILL
KEEP SOME DRIVING DYNAMICS IN PLAY SO THE TYPICAL DECREASE IN
ACTIVITY DUE TO NOCTURNAL COOLING MAY NOT BE SUFFICIENT TO SETTLE
THE ATMOSPHERE. DUE TO SOME RAIN WEDNESDAY AND INCREASED CLOUD
COVER THURSDAY, SOME HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY MAY NOT GET AS
WARM AS ANTICIPATED. WILL JUST HAVE TO ADJUST AS NECESSARY.
FRIDAY-SATURDAY SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY DRY AND ONLY 4-8 DEGREES OR
SO COOLER AS THE SHORT WAVE MOVES INLAND AND A STRONGER MARINE
INFLUENCE AFFECTS THE COASTAL REGION. ANOTHER LOW OFF THE COAST
IS A COMMON PICTURE IN THE LONGER RANGE FOR SUNDAY INTO NEXT
MONDAY, AND THIS SHOULD USHER IN MORE SOUTH FLOW AND THUNDER
POSSIBILITIES FOR SOME AREAS. STAVISH
AVIATION...15/12Z TAFS
IFR/MVFR CEILINGS ARE IMPACTING PORTIONS
OF THE COAST AND THE COASTAL WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING. SOME LIFR
CEILINGS ARE ALSO PRESENT AT BROOKINGS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MID-LATE MORNING, THEN BECOME VFR FOR SEVERAL HOURS
THIS AFTERNOON. LOW CEILINGS AND/OR FOG WILL LIKELY RETURN AGAIN
THIS EVENING, THEN PERSIST OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. VFR WILL
PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OVER INLAND AREAS. -SPILDE
MARINE...UPDATED 200 AM PDT MONDAY, 15 AUGUST, 2022
CONDITIONS HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT ARE EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY SOUTH
OF CAPE BLANCO DUE TO GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND STEEP, WIND WAVE
DOMINATED SEAS. BEGINNING LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, GALES
AND VERY STEEP, HAZARDOUS SEAS ARE EXPECTED SOUTH OF GOLD BEACH WITH
GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND STEEP SEAS SPREADING NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO.
GUSTY WINDS AND STEEP TO VERY STEEP SEAS PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY,
THEN ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER A BIT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THAT
WILL PROBABLY BE SHORT-LIVED, HOWEVER, SINCE STRONGER NORTH WINDS
MAY RETURN FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO.
-SPILDE
FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED 300 AM PDT MONDAY 15 AUGUST 2022
MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO FEED INTO THE REGION TUESDAY
WITH INCREASING TEMPERATURES AND INSTABILITY. THIS WILL ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM TO THE MODOC AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IN
ADDITION, GENERALLY DRY AND UNSTABLE LOWER ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS
OVER THE EAST SIDE WILL RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR PLUME
DOMINATED FIRE ACTIVITY FOR ANY EXISTING OR DEVELOPING FIRES.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST WIDESPREAD WEDNESDAY, MOST NUMEROUS
FROM THE CASCADES EAST AND SISKIYOUS SOUTH, WITH SCATTERED
COVERAGE FORECAST OVER HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF THE CASCADES. A
SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION OF STORMS WAS ADDED TO SOME OF SOUTHWEST
OREGON AND WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY WEDNESDAY DUE TO UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS, INCREASING MOISTURE, AND SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW. THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA SHOULD BE AWARE OF A POTENTIAL FOR INCREASING
FIRE BEHAVIOR ACTIVITY POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE LIGHTNING
CHANCES AND POTENTIAL FOR NEW FIRE STARTS, GUSTY AND ERRATIC
OUTFLOW WINDS FROM THUNDERSTORMS, AND DRY AND UNSTABLE LOWER TO
MID ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS (HAINES 6). THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY
CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL BE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY FROM THE CASCADES EAST. STAVISH/SVEN
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR ORZ624-625.
CA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR CAZ285.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM TUESDAY TO 11 PM PDT WEDNESDAY
FOR PZZ350-370.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ356-376.
GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM TUESDAY TO 11 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
PZZ376.
MTS/MTS/MAS
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