951
FXUS66 KMFR 061757
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
957 AM PST FRI MAR 6 2026
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
AVIATION...06/18Z TAFS
OVERALL, VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS
THE REGION WITH AREAS OF MVFR IN THE UMPQUA AND LIFR IN THE GRANTS
PASS AREA GRADUALLY CLEARING THIS MORNING. VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING OVERHEAD AND
ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG THE COAST AND INTO THE UMPQUA BASIN
THIS AFTERNOON. AREAS OF HIGHER MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE EXPECTED
TODAY AND TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY FROM THE CASCADES WEST. LOW CLOUDS ARE
LIKELY TO RETURN TO SIMILAR AREAS AGAIN TONIGHT, BUT CONTINUED HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT THE EXTENT OF FOG DEVELOPMENT FOR WEST
SIDE VALLEYS. /BR-Y
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 351 AM PST FRI MAR 6 2026/
KEY POINTS...
- TODAY AND LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, PERIODS OF LIGHT SHOWERS
ACROSS NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA, MAINLY ALONG THE COAST
AND INLAND INTO DOUGLAS COUNTY.
- BREEZY TO GUSTY WINDS OVER THE RIDGES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- TEMPERATURES TREND WARMER SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH HIGHS 5 TO 15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
- TRENDING COOLER WITH CHANCES FOR VERY LIGHT RAIN AND LIGHT SNOW
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION...TODAY A WEAK FRONT MOVING INTO NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF
THE AREA WILL BRING CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION, MAINLY ALONG
THE COAST, INTO DOUGLAS COUNTY AND INTO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL OREGON
CASCADES. HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL NUDGE INTO THE AREA
SATURDAY, RESULTING IN A SIGNIFICANT WARM UP WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES 5 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE WARM CONDITIONS
CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY. ON SATURDAY, MOST VALLEYS WEST OF THE
CASCADES WILL BE IN THE MID TO HIGH 60S (LOCALLY INTO THE 70S FOR
AREAS IN THE LOWER KLAMATH RIVER VALLEY). EAST OF THE CASCADES,
EXPECT HIGHS IN LOW TO MID 60S. ADDITIONALLY, MOS AND NBM
PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE, INDICATES AREAS IN COASTAL SOUTHERN CURRY
COUNTY NEAR BROOKINGS HAVE A CHANCE TO REACH 70 DEGREES ON
SATURDAY (20-40% NEAR BROOKINGS AND 50-70% OVER COASTAL RIDGES
JUST INLAND). SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY, EXCEPT
AREAS ALONG THE COAST AND INTO DOUGLAS COUNTY WILL TREND COOLER AS
ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES INLAND LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
THIS WILL ALSO BRING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SHOWERS ONCE AGAIN TO
NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
A ZONAL PATTERN SETS UP EARLY NEXT WEEK AS LOW IN THE GULF OF
ALASKA WEAKENS THE RIDGE. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO COOL
DURING THIS PERIOD AS COLD AIR MOVES DOWN INTO THE AREA. MODELS
INDICATE ONSHORE FLOW AND WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING INTO THE
REGION, BRINGING CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION, MAINLY FROM THE
CASCADES WEST AND INTO NORTHERN KLAMATH COUNTY. THE THE FOCUS OF
THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY NORTH OF THE AREA; SO ANY
PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY TO BE LIGHT.
ALTHOUGH MODELS AND ENSEMBLES SHOW THAT PRECIPITATION EARLY NEXT
WEEK WILL BE LIGHT, IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER
DURING THIS TIME. SNOW LEVELS INITIALLY WILL BE HIGH, STARTING AT
6000-7000+ FEET SUNDAY NIGHT, THEN LOWER ON MONDAY DOWN TO HIGHER
PASSES IN THE SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES (4000-5000 FT). SNOW
LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO LOWER FURTHER MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNING AND MAY LOWER DOWN TO LOWER PASS LEVELS ON I-5 (1800 FT),
RISING AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON TO (3500-4500 FT). THE MOST LIKELY
SCENARIO DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE LIGHT RAIN ALONG THE COAST AND
ACROSS NORTHERN DOUGLAS COUNTY AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
OREGON CASCADES (CRATER LAKE NORTHWARD), WITH MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS FOR VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION (TRACE TO A FEW HUNDRETHS) FOR
AREAS TO THE SOUTH AND FURTHER INLAND. THESE MEANS ANY LIGHT SNOW
THAT OCCURS (LESS THAN 1.0 INCHES IN 24 HRS) WILL MAINLY ONLY
AFFECT THE HIGHER PASSES IN THE CASCADES (ESPECIALLY NEAR DIAMOND
LAKE AND CRATER LAKE) AND HAVE VERY LIMITED IMPACTS.
A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN CONTINUES INTO LATE NEXT WEEK WITH ADDITIONAL
DISTURBANCES BRINGING CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN AND MOUNTAIN/EAST
SIDE SNOW. THE NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS INDICATES THAT
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT. HOWEVER, WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THIS PERIOD FOR ANY IMPACTS.
MARINE...UPDATED 200 AM PST FRIDAY, MARCH 6, 2026...WEST SWELL
LOWERS TODAY. MEANWHILE NORTH WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY TO GUSTY
SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO. CONDITIONS MAY LOCALLY REACH ADVISORY
CRITERIA FROM NEAR BROOKINGS SOUTHWARD LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. NORTH WINDS INCREASE AND SPREAD NORTHWARD SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY, THEN PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. STEEP
SEAS ARE LIKELY SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO DURING THIS TIME, WITH AREAS
OF VERY STEEP SEAS POSSIBLE SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO BY MONDAY.
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...NONE.
CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
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