214
FXUS66 KMFR 240036
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
536 PM PDT THU APR 23 2026
..UPDATED THE AVIATION AND MARINE SECTIONS
AVIATION...24/00Z TAFS
GUSTY NORTH WINDS AT THE COAST FROM CAPE
BLANCO SOUTHWARD WILL DIMINISH LATE THIS EVENING. THEY WILL DEVELOP
AGAIN OVER A BROADER AREA OF THE COAST FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, FROM FLORENCE TO PISTOL RIVER.
CONDITIONS WILL MAINLY REMAIN VFR THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING, BUT AREAS
OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING (AROUND 08Z TO 17Z) IN THE COQUILLE AND UMPQUA VALLEYS,
INCLUDING ROSEBURG.
MARINE...UPDATED 530 PM PDT THURSDAY, APRIL 23, 2026
NORTHWEST
SWELL WILL BE AT A PEAK THIS EVENING, PRODUCING STEEP SEAS NORTH OF
CAPE BLANCO. MEANWHILE, GUSTY NORTH WINDS ARE ALSO CONTRIBUTING TO
STEEP SEAS FOR CAPE BLANCO SOUTHWARD. WINDS DIMINISH NEAR SHORE
SOUTH OF PISTOL RIVER EARLY FRIDAY. BUT, BOTH STEEP SEAS AND GUSTY
NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT OVER THE REMAINDER OF
THE WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS TREND LOWER OVER THE WEEKEND.
NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK. NORTHERLY WINDS
WILL PERSIST WHILE A LOW NORTHWEST SWELL COMBINES WITH A FRESH,
SHORTER PERIOD NNW SWELL. STEEP SEAS COULD RETURN AROUND MID-WEEK
WHEN THERE COULD BE AN UPTICK IN NORTHERLY WINDS AND AN INCREASING
NORTHWEST SWELL MOVES INTO THE WATERS.
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 108 PM PDT THU APR 23 2026/
KEY MESSAGES...
-WARMER WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN FRIDAY.
-PATCHY FROST TONIGHT IN SOME TYPICALLY COLDER WEST SIDE VALLEYS.
-ISOLATED SHOWER/T-STORM, MAINLY SOUTH OF THE AREA LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING; OTHERWISE, DRY.
-SHOWER COVERAGE EXPANDS NORTHWARD SATURDAY, MAINLY ACROSS NORCAL.
ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
-SHOWER CHANCES CONTINUE SUNDAY/MONDAY, HIGHEST FROM THE
CASCADES EASTWARD, BUT MORE HIT- OR- MISS WEST OF THE CASCADES.
-ACTIVITY SHIFTS EASTWARD TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION...A BLOCKING PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL
MAKE FOR ONLY SUBTLE CHANGES IN THE WEATHER OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. SLIGHTLY HIGHER HEIGHTS (COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS) WILL BRING
WARMER WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL. SANDWICHED IN BETWEEN, TONIGHT WILL BE
CHILLY (A LITTLE BIT CHILLIER THAN LAST NIGHT) WITH LESS CLOUD-
COVER EXPECTED. HOWEVER, PATCHY FOG COULD FORM IN SOME DEEPER
VALLEYS TOWARD OR AROUND SUNRISE FRIDAY. COLDEST TEMPERATURES WILL
BE IN THE 32-36F RANGE (FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS) IN THE TYPICALLY
COLDER PORTIONS OF THE ILLINOIS/APPLEGATE AND EVEN SOME OF THE
ROGUE/LOWER KLAMATH RIVER VALLEYS. SO, WHILE PATCHY FROST COULD
DEVELOP, IT DOESN'T LOOK WIDESPREAD ENOUGH FOR A FROST ADVISORY.
LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING, SOME INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP IN
THE MOUNTAINS TO OUR SOUTH WITH SOME AFTERNOON CUMULUS HERE OR
THERE UP HERE IN OREGON. MODELS ARE SHOWING ABOUT 10-15% POPS
NEAR THE TRINITY HORN THAT JUTS NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN SISKIYOU
COUNTY. SUPPOSE THERE COULD BE JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR AN
ISOLATED SHOWER (PERHAPS EVEN A THUNDERSTORM), BUT WE'RE NOT
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY. ANYTHING THAT DOES FORM WILL DRIFT
OFF TO THE EAST ACROSS SE SISKIYOU COUNTY AND INTO MODOC COUNTY
FRIDAY NIGHT (~15% CHANCE OF SHOWERS).
ON SATURDAY, ENERGY ON THE BACK SIDE OF A CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTH-
CENTRAL CANADA (SASKATCHEWAN) WILL DROP SOUTHWARD IN NORTHERLY
FLOW ALOFT INTO THE PACNW. MEANWHILE, MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION
WILL INCREASE INTO OUR AREA FROM A TROUGH LOCATED OFF THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS WILL ALLOW SHOWER CHANCES/COVERAGE TO
EXPAND ACROSS OUR AREA, BUT HIGHEST POPS (40-60%) WILL BE IN
NORCAL DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING, WHERE THERE IS ALSO A 15-20%
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. 15% POPS EXTEND BACK TO AROUND THE
CASCADES/SISKIYOUS, BUT ARE GENERALLY 10% OR LESS FOR THE WEST
SIDE. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE AREA SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY IN JUST HOW FAST THE TROUGH AXIS
PUSHES EASTWARD. THIS WILL BRING LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS (HIT-OR-
MISS VARIETY) WEST OF THE CASCADES WITH SOMEWHAT HIGHER POPS IN
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND FROM THE CASCADES EASTWARD. OVERALL,
TEMPERATURES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE NEAR OR JUST A BIT ABOVE
NORMAL. THIS MEANS HIGHS GENERALLY 65-70F IN MEDFORD.
SHOWER CHANCES DIMINISH OVER THE AREA TUE/WED, THOUGH AN UPPER
TROUGH WILL REMAIN NEARBY WITH THE STRONGEST RIDGING LOCATED OUT
AROUND 130W. THAT RIDGE AXIS COULD MOVE ONTO THE WEST COAST BY
NEXT THU. -SPILDE
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM PDT SATURDAY
FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
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