591
FXUS66 KMFR 230604
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1104 PM PDT MON JUN 22 2026
..UPDATED THE AVIATION SECTION
AVIATION...23/06Z TAFS
LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. IMPROVEMENT DURING
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE SHORT-LIVED INTO EARLY TUESDAY EVENING,
WITH LIFR/IFR THEN RETURNING OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
INLAND AREAS WILL REMAIN VFR, THOUGH WITH GUSTY, BREEZY NORTHWEST
WINDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
MARINE...UPDATED 800 PM PDT MONDAY, JUNE 22, 2026
NORTH WINDS
WILL MAINTAIN STRENGTH THROUGH THIS EVENING. ISOLATED GALE FORCE
GUSTS AND VERY STEEP SEAS ARE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO WHILE
STEEP SEAS PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS. NORTHERLY WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, RESULTING IN SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST MID-
WEEK. CONDITIONS BRIEFLY IMPROVE ON THURSDAY. THEN A COLD FRONT IS
LIKELY TO BRING LIGHT RAIN AND A MODEST INCREASE IN FRESH WEST-
NORTHWEST SWELL THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 445 PM PDT MON JUN 22 2026/
DISCUSSION...
SKIES ARE CLEAR OVER SOUTHERN OREGON THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME
COASTAL STRATUS HUGGING THE COAST. A THERMAL TROUGH REMAINS
CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN OREGON WEST OF THE CASCADES THIS AFTERNOON
WITH A LIGHT EAST WIND OFF THE CASCADES AND TEMPERATURES WARMING
INTO THE UPPER 90'S. HEAT RISK REMAINS ELEVATED THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTO TUESDAY AS HIGHS PUSH INTO THE UPPER 90'S IN THE VALLEYS AND
UPPER 50'S FOR LOWS. OVERALL, CONDITIONS ARE WARMER THAN NORMAL
HERE FOR LATE JUNE WITHIN SOUTHERN OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.
BY TUESDAY, A SHORT WAVE PASSING THROUGH WILL RESULT IN A VERY
LOW CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND EAST OF
THE CASCADES. THE GFS AND THE CONVECTIVE ALLOWING NSSL MODEL LIKE
THUNDERSTORM/SHOWER ACTIVITY, BUT A LOT OF OTHER DATA IS HINTING
AGAINST IT WITH JUST CUMULUS BUILDUPS. OVERALL, WE THINK THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE A ~5% CHANCE OF OCCURING AS ANY CONVECTIVE AVAILABLE
POTENTIAL ENERGY(CAPE) SHOULD BE SMALL AS THIS MID LEVEL MOISTURE
AROUND 600 MB ARRIVES IN THE AFTERNOON. A MID LEVEL CUMULUS FIELD
SEEMS MORE LIKELY.
THE PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS INCREASES ON WEDNESDAY AS THE
TROUGH IS DEEPER AND MORE OF THE ECMWF ENS MEMBERS ARE SHOWING
SPOTTY QPF OVER SOUTHERN OREGON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, PERHAPS
BECAUSE OF INCREASED MOISTURE OR BETTER LAPSE RATES ALOFT.
THEREFORE, WE KEPT THE ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORM MENTIONS EAST OF
THE CASCADES AND IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. IT
SHOULD BE FAIRLY BREEZY AS WELL AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
BY THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO TREND A TAD
COOLER WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
THE BIG CHANGE WILL COME BY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING
WHEN A PLUME OF MOIST AIR PUSHES IN AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHILE A
TROUGH SLIDES DOWN FROM THE NORTH WEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME
LIGHTER RAIN ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF SOUTHERN OREGON DURING FRIDAY.
MODELS STILL DIFFER WITH THE AMOUNT AND COVERAGE OF RAIN, ALTHOUGH
THE CASCADES AND COAST WILL LIKELY SEE RAIN. WE CAN'T RULE OUT
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS EAST OF THE CASCADES AS THE
COOLER MOIST AIR MOVES IN. HOWEVER, ENSEMBLE MEMBERS VARY NOTABLY
ABOUT HOW MUCH CAPE WILL BE AROUND FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
THE LAST TOPIC WILL BE THE COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES ARE SHOWING UP ON THE EFI WITH VALUES
AROUND -0.85 EAST OF THE CASCADES, WHICH IS A NOTABLE SIGNATURE
FOR COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN SUMMER. SEEMS RATHER RARE.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 60'S AROUND CHEMULT WITH SOME LOCATIONS
PERHAPS IN THE UPPER 50'S. THAT SEEMS PRETTY UNREALISTIC WITH A
HIGH SUN ANGLE AND SPOTTY CLOUD COVER, ALTHOUGH THAT IS WHAT THE
NBM IS GOING WITH NEAR CHEMULT AND CRESCENT BY SATURDAY. OVERALL,
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10 TO 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN NORMAL ON
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES THEN BEGIN TO WARM UP EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR ORZ024-026.
CA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR CAZ080>082.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM PDT
WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ356-370-376.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page