504
FXUS66 KMFR 081106
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
406 AM PDT WED JUL 8 2026
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
AVIATION...08/12Z TAFS
MARINE STRATUS WILL MAINTAIN IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST FROM CAPE BLANCO NORTHWARD AND GOLD BEACH
SOUTHWARD THROUGH MOST OF THE MORNING. SOME SOME GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT
TO A SCATTERED LAYER IS EXPECTED AGAIN LATER THIS MORNING, BUT WILL
RETURN TO SIMILAR AREAS AFTER 03Z THIS EVENING.
FARTHER INLAND, THE MARINE STRATUS COULD BRING SOME MVFR CEILINGS
INTO PORTIONS OF THE UMPQUA BASIN, INCLUDING ROSEBURG, AROUND
SUNRISE, BUT WILL QUICKLY BURN OFF BY LATE MORNING. ALL OTHER AREAS
WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH THE TYPICAL INCREASE IN
AFTERNOON BREEZES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 327 AM PDT WED JUL 8 2026/
KEY POINTS...
* TYPICAL SUMMER WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK: SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITIES, GUSTY AFTERNOON WINDS.
* PATTERN AMPLIFIES FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND RESULTING IN TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENTS AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS (25-30 MPH) FRIDAY-
SUNDAY. GUSTY WINDS COMBINED WITH LOW RHS BRING HEIGHTENED FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS (WINDS STRONGEST/RHS LOWEST ON SATURDAY).
* THUNDERSTORM PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK. BEST CHANCES EAST OF
CASCADES AND ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WITH LESSER, BUT NOT
NEGLIGIBLE CHANCES FOR THE WEST SIDE.
DISCUSSION...ANOTHER QUIET SUMMER MORNING UNDERWAY TODAY. THE
MARINE LAYER BLANKETS THE COAST FROM GOLD BEACH SOUTHWARD AS WELL
AS THE COQUILLE BASIN AND COASTAL RANGES. SKIES ARE CLEAR
EVERYWHERE ELSE. THE MARINE LAYER WILL CONTINUE NUDGING INLAND
THIS MORNING, POSSIBLY MAKING IT TO ROSEBURG AROUND SUNRISE, BUT
MORNING CLOUDS WILL GIVE WAY TO SUNSHINE BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
WESTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL TODAY INTO THURSDAY UNDER A MOSTLY ZONAL
FLOW PATTERN WITH FLAT HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH AND A BROAD TROUGH
EXTENDING SOUTH OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC FROM THE GULF OF
ALASKA. THIS WILL RESULT IN A MORE STABLE AIR MASS WITH THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL REMAINING WELL EAST OF THE AREA. THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME
CUMULUS BUILDUPS TODAY EAST OF THE CASCADES AND ACROSS NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA, AND A STRAY SHOWER (5% CHANCE) CAN'T BE RULED OUT. A DRY
FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER
DAY OF ENHANCED AFTERNOON BREEZES AS WELL AS A GENERAL COOLING TREND
IN AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TODAY THAT WILL PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND.
INSTEAD OF TEMPERATURES BEING 8 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL LIKE
RECENT DAYS, HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL HOVER WITHIN
A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL, EQUATING TO LOW 90S WEST/UPPER 80S EAST.
WITH THIS GENERAL COOL DOWN, WE'LL SEE AN UPTICK IN AFTERNOON
HUMIDITIES, SO DESPITE THE ENHANCED AFTERNOON WINDS, FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS WILL BE SOMEWHAT MITIGATED BY THE SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES.
THE PATTERN TRANSITIONS ON FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH
MOVING EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT BASIN REGION, THEN AMPLIFYING ON
SATURDAY. MEANWHILE, RELATIVELY STRONG LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NORTHERN
BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST DIGS SOUTHWARD FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY,
LINGERING OFFSHORE NEAR SEATTLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL TURN
THE FLOW SOUTHWESTERLY AGAIN AND SOUTHWEST OR/NORTHERN CA WILL BE
WEDGED BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS, RESULTING IN TIGHTER GRADIENTS.
THIS PATTERN WILL BRING A ROUND OF STRONG, GUSTY WINDS TO THE REGION
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WHEN GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED EAST OF
THE CASCADES AND ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE AIR MASS IN THOSE
AREAS WILL BE MORE UNDER THE RIDGE INFLUENCE, WHILE AREAS WEST OF
THE CASCADES WILL BE MORE UNDER THE TROUGH INFLUENCE. THIS WILL
RESULT IN MUCH DRIER AIR FOR AREAS TO THE EAST (DAYTIME HUMIDITIES
IN THE LOW TEENS, POSSIBLY SINGLE DIGITS), AND WHEN COMBINED WITH
THOSE 25 TO 30 MPH GUSTS, CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS COULD BE
POSSIBLE EAST OF THE CASCADES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, MOST WIDESPREAD
ON SATURDAY.
LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTH PUSHES NORTHEASTWARD ON SUNDAY, AND THIS
WILL EASE WINDS SOME COMPARED TO SATURDAY, BUT CONDITIONS WILL STILL
BE QUITE BREEZY. MEANWHILE, STRONG RIDGING GETS NUDGED EASTWARD WITH
THAT TROUGH. DAYTIME HUMIDITIES WILL TREND SLIGHTLY UPWARD AND THE
FLOW WILL TURN MORE SOUTHERLY HEADING INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL BEAR WATCHING FOR THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL AS
SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW COULD PUSH SOME MONSOONAL MOISTURE INTO
THE REGION. WHILE THIS IS STILL 5 TO 7 DAYS OUT AND PLENTY OF TIME
FOR DETAILS TO CHANGE BETWEEN NOW AND THEN, IT CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE
WE'LL SKATE BY ON SUNDAY WITHOUT ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY, HOWEVER, THERE COULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY IN THE REGION FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. GIVEN THAT THE
REGION IS ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THAT STRONG HIGH PRESSURE, IT
CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCES WOULD BE ACROSS EASTERN AREAS,
THOUGH IT'S WORTH NOTING THAT CURRENT GUIDANCE SHOWS ENOUGH MOISTURE
ACROSS THE WEST SIDE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT POTENTIALLY ON
TUESDAY. STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES AS MODELS HONE IN ON ADDITIONAL
DETAILS.
MARINE...UPDATED 100 AM PDT WEDNESDAY, JULY 8, 2026...MODERATE
NORTH WINDS CONTINUE SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO, WHICH WILL MAINTAIN
STEEP SEAS THROUGH THIS MORNING. THE THERMAL TROUGH STRENGTHENS
LATER THIS MORNING, RESULTING IN INCREASING NORTH WINDS AND VERY
STEEP SEAS DEVELOPING SOUTH OF GOLD BEACH. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WINDS AND SEAS WILL SPREAD NORTH TO CAPE ARAGO. WINDS INCREASE
FURTHER THURSDAY, WITH BRIEF GALES POSSIBLE SOUTH OF GOLD BEACH.
THE THERMAL TROUGH WEAKENS FRIDAY, BUT COULD STRENGTHEN AGAIN LATE
WEEKEND WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND STEEP SEAS.
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM PDT FRIDAY
FOR PZZ356-376.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 AM PDT FRIDAY
FOR PZZ350-370.
HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 AM PDT
FRIDAY FOR PZZ356-376.
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