416
FXUS66 KMFR 242309
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
309 PM PST WED DEC 24 2025
DISCUSSION
WE ARE IN A LULL IN THE ACTIVITY AS THE FIRST STORM SYSTEM IS
WELL OUT OF THE WAY. RADAR JUST SHOWS SOME LIGHTER SHOWERS IN
SISKIYOU COUNTY AND EAST OF THE CASCADES THIS AFTERNOON.
A LOW WILL STRENGTHEN TO OUR WEST AROUND 140W TONIGHT BASED ON
MOST OF THE ENSEMBLE DATA AND SANTA MIGHT HAVE A BUMPY RIDE INTO
SOME CHIMNEYS LATER TONIGHT. THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE(ENS) PERFORMED
BEST WITH THE LAST LOW TAKING IT FARTHER EAST, SO WE BASED MOST OF
OUR DECISIONS OFF THAT ENSEMBLE FOR THIS FORECAST CYCLE. THIS LOW
WILL LIKELY STRENGTHEN DOWN TO 980 MB OR SO AROUND 40N AND 140W
OVERNIGHT.
STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL COVER THE FORECAST AREA AGAIN
OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING WITH THE THREAT OF HIGH WINDS IN
THE SHASTA VALLEY AND ALONG THE COAST. THE ECMWF WIND GUST
FORECAST HINTED AT WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH ALONG THE COASTAL
HEADLANDS IN CURRY COUNTY, SO WE ENDED UP ISSUING ANOTHER HIGH
WIND WARNING THERE. AS FOR THE SHASTA VALLEY, THERE ARE MORE THAN
A FEW GOOD INDICATORS THERE AGAIN. THE EXTREME FORECAST INDEX(EFI)
IS SHOWING VALUES NEAR 1 NORTH OF REDDING FOR WIND GUSTS.
THEREFORE, THE ENSEMBLES ARE SHOWING FORECASTING STRONGER WIND
GUSTS THAN AVERAGE COMPARED TO CLIMATOLOGY, WHICH IS ALREADY VERY
WINDY THIS TIME OF YEAR. ALSO THE NBM 50TH PERCENTILE SHOWS WIND
GUSTS AROUND PEAKING AT 60 KNOTS TOMORROW WITH 700 MB FLOW ALIGNED
WITH THE VALLEY.
ELSEWHERE, WINDS SHOULD BE A BIT WEAKER. IF WE DO GET THE MIXING
TOMORROW AFTERNOON, IT SEEMS REASONABLE TO SEE WIND GUSTS AROUND
45MPH WEST OF THE CASCADES. WIND GUSTS SHOULD BE STRONGER FARTHER
TO THE EAST GIVEN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OUT THERE AND STILL STRONG
FLOW AT 700 MB. HOWEVER, THE EFI WASN'T JUMPING OUT TO US. PERHAPS
SOME WIND GUSTS WILL APPROACH HIGH WIND AROUND KLAMATH FALLS, BUT
WILL ALLOW THE NEXT SHIFT TO DECIDE ON UPGRADE TO HIGH WIND
INSTEAD.
SNOW IS THE OTHER BIG HEADLINE WITH THE MAJOR IMPACTS STILL IN
SISKIYOU COUNTY. SNOW LEVELS WILL START TO LOWER THROUGH THE NIGHT
AS THIS COLDER AIR IS USHERED IN BEHIND THE FIRST LOW. GENERALLY,
SNOW LEVELS START AROUND 4500 FEET BEFORE LOWERING TO 3500 TO 3300
FEET LATER THURSDAY NIGHT AROUND MT SHASTA CITY. WE ARE
ANTICIPATING SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW THERE AS THE SPC HREF IS
FORECASTING AROUND 12 INCHES OF ACCUMULATING SNOW DOWN TO MT
SHASTA CITY WITH HIGHER TOTALS IN THE SURROUNDING TERRAIN IN
SISKIYOU COUNTY.
ONCE WE MOVE INTO FRIDAY, THE ENS QUICKLY KICKS THINGS OUT FRIDAY
WITH PLENTY OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. MEANWHILE THE GFS AND SOME
OF THE GEFS SOLUTIONS WANTS TO SPIN UP ANOTHER WEAKER LOW OFF OUR
COAST. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE WEEKEND WITH SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE WEST OF THE CASCADES AND MORNING
VALLEY FOG SATURDAY. THE QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES FOR THE
REMAINDER OF 2025.
-SMITH
AVIATION...24/18Z TAFS
A FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
STRONG, GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE CASCADES EASTWARD INTO
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, THEN WINDS WILL TREND LOWER. CEILINGS ARE
MAINLY VFR ACROSS INLAND AREAS WITH AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS ALONG THE
COAST. EXPECT LOWER CEILINGS ALONG THE COAST TO LIFT TO VFR AROUND
21Z. SHOWERS WILL DECREASE BETWEEN 21-00Z OVER SOUTHWEST OREGON,
BECOMING ISOLATED. EXPECT AREAS OF SHOWERS TO CONTINUE IN PORTIONS
OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.
ANOTHER LOW APPROACHES THE COAST TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
EXPECT RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TO SPREAD INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND
RAIN TO SPREAD ALONG THE COAST, WITH A MIX OF MVFR/IFR AND
WIDESPREAD MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS. SNOW MAY DEVELOP AT MOUNT SHASTA
CITY BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING AS SNOW LEVEL LOWER LOCALLY IN
SOUTHERN SISKIYOU COUNTY. INLAND, OVER SOUTHWEST OREGON EXPECT AREAS
OF RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY
WITH AREAS OF MVFR, INCLUDING AT KLAMATH FALLS.
STRONG, GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP OVER
THE MOUNTAINS AND EAST OF THE CASCADES AND IN THE SHASTA VALLEY AS
THIS LOW NEARS THE AREA. AREAS THAT DO NOT GET THE STRONG WINDS, ARE
EXPECTED TO SEE PERIODS OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR LATE TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING. BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT MEDFORD
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING WHICH IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ANY LOWER STRATUS TONIGHT. AT ROSEBURG THERE IS A 25%
CHANCE FOR IFR TONIGHT BEFORE RAIN SHOWERS MOVE INTO THE AREA.
HOWEVER, WITH GUIDANCE IS LEANING TOWARDS VFR AT THIS TIMES. SO HAVE
KEPT ROSEBURG VFR AND WILL MONITOR FOR LOWER CONDITIONS.
-CC
MARINE...UPDATED 100 PM PST WEDNESDAY, DECEMBER 24, 2025
STEEP
SEAS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WATERS INTO THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.
SOUTH WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING.
THEN, ANOTHER STRONG SYSTEM ARRIVES LATE TONIGHT AND CHRISTMAS DAY,
BRINGING WIDESPREAD AND STRONG GALES (30-40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT)
ALONG WITH VERY STEEP SEAS BETWEEN 13 TO 23 FT. LOCALLY STORM FORCE
GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY MORNING AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
GUIDANCE INDICATES A 30-40% CHANCE FOR STORM FORCE GUSTS FOR THE
WATERS WITH IN 20 NM OF SHORE BETWEEN GOLD BEACH AND CAPE BLANCO AND
A 20% CHANCE FOR STORM FORCE GUSTS FOR OTHER AREAS. WITH THIS
FRONTAL SYSTEM, THERE IS ALSO A 20% CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE WATERS ON THURSDAY WITH THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING
ACROSS THE WATERS FROM CAPE BLANCO SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING.
AS THE LOW PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE WATERS FROM WEST TO EAST ON
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING, EXPECT CONTINUED AREAS OF GALES
FOR THE WATERS FROM CAPE BLANCO SOUTH. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTH
TO NORTHWEST AS THIS LOW MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. VERY STEEP
SEAS WILL PERSIST ACROSS ALL THE WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY
MORNING. GUSTY NORTH WINDS (20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH) ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ONCE THE LOW EXITS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT, THE OVERALL WEATHER
PATTERN LOOKS TO SETTLE DOWN OVER THE WEEKEND, POSSIBLY INTO NEXT
WEEK, AND CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE OVERALL WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE
NORTH WINDS. AREAS OF GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND STEEP SEAS ARE POSSIBLE
SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO.
-CC
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 1 PM PST THURSDAY FOR ORZ023>026-
029>031.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 1 PM PST THURSDAY FOR ORZ022.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 PM PST
FRIDAY FOR ORZ027-028.
CA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM PST FRIDAY FOR CAZ080-082>085.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 1 PM PST THURSDAY FOR CAZ080-083>085.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 1 PM PST THURSDAY FOR CAZ081.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST THURSDAY
FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM THURSDAY TO 10 AM PST FRIDAY FOR PZZ350-
356-370-376.
HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 10 PM THURSDAY TO 10 AM PST FRIDAY
FOR PZZ350-370.
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