382
FXUS66 KMFR 102052
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
152 PM PDT FRI APR 10 2026
DISCUSSION
THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN THE MAIN CONCERN WITHIN THE FORECAST TODAY
WITH A 5 TO 15 PERCENT RISK OF SEVERE 60 MPH WINDS AND HAIL
AROUND 3/4" MAINLY AROUND DOUGLAS COUNTY. THE CUT OFF LOW IN THE
PACIFIC WILL BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED AND BRING A LITTLE EXTRA
DYNAMICS TO THE ATMOSPHERE TODAY. HOWEVER, POTENTIAL INSTABILITY
IS STILL A QUESTION, ESPECIALLY HERE IN SOUTHERN OREGON GIVEN ALL
THE CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS ARE
NOTABLY CLEARER FARTHER TO THE NORTH AND THE RBG BUFR FORECAST
SOUNDINGS LOOKS PRETTY GOOD FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS, ALTHOUGH
THEY'RE ALSO LOW SIDE OF CONVECTIVE AVAILABLE POTENTIAL ENERGY.
THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME INGESTED IN THE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW AND SHIFT EASTWARDS LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING
AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH IN THE PACIFIC. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY, ALTHOUGH THE NEXT
BATCH OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL HIT THE AREA
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THIS SUBSEQUENT LOW APPROACHES THE COAST.
SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER TO 5000 AS THIS COOLER AIR SETTLES IN
SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH MOST OF THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION FOCUSED ON
SISKIYOU COUNTY, WE DECIDED TO GO WITH A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
ABOVE 5000 FEET SATURDAY NIGHT. THE 50TH PERCENTILE NBM SNOW
ACCUMULATION WAS SHOWING 8 TO 12 INCHES OVER THAT HIGHER TERRAIN
AND WE THOUGHT IT COULD IMPACT THE SCOTT MOUNTAIN SUMMIT OVER
CALIFORNIA HIGHWAY 3. ONCE THE LOW IS OVER CALIFORNIA ON SUNDAY,
IMPACTS WILL DIMINISH AS THE SHOWER INTENSITY WILL DECREASE AND
THERE SHOULD BE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER TO HELP THE SUN
REALLY HEAT UP SURFACES.
THE RELATIVELY COOLER AND UNSTABLE AIR IN THIS LOW'S WAKE WILL
KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE UNSTABLE. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE INTO MONDAY WITH A 40 TO 60 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL COOLER THAN NORMAL AND IN THE UPPER 50'S
FOR MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS. HOWEVER, THE CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30'S AND LOWER 40'S OVERNIGHT, SO WE'RE
NOT ANTICIPATING ANY FROST OR FREEZE PRODUCTS.
OTHERWISE, THE EXTENDED FORECAST ISN'T LOOKING TOO EVENTFUL.
MODELS ARE SHOWING A DEEP TROUGH AND WELL DEFINED COLD FRONT
PUSHING DOWN FROM THE NORTH AROUND WEDNESDAY. THIS SHOULD RESULT
IN MORE SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS AND COOLER AND WETTER THAN NORMAL
CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
AVIATION...10/18Z TAFS
PATCHY LIFR CEILINGS ARE PERSISTING ALONG
THE COAST, BUT ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT THIS AFTERNOON. MEANTIME,
CONDITIONS ARE MAINLY VFR. SHOWERS AND NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BOTH DEVELOP AND MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM AROUND 20Z THROUGH 03Z. THESE CELLS MAY
PRODUCE STRONG, GUSTY WINDS, HAIL, DOWNPOURS, AND MVFR CEILINGS WITH
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION. AFTERWARD, SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WHILE RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
HELPS AREAS OF IFR/MVFR LOW LEVEL VALLEY STRATUS TO FORM. SIMILAR TO
TODAY, CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE DURING THE MORNING BEFORE
ANOTHER EPISODE OF WIDESPREAD AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPS AND EXPANDS IN COVERAGE.
MARINE...UPDATED 130 PM PDT FRIDAY, APRIL 10, 2026
SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY. THE UNSETTLED
WEATHER WILL KEEP WINDS AND SHORT PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL DOMINATED
SEAS BELOW ADVISORY LEVEL. STEEP SEAS ARE POSSIBLE BEGINNING TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH A STRONGER FRONTAL PASSAGE.
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...NONE.
CA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM SATURDAY TO 11 AM PDT SUNDAY
FOR CAZ080.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
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