786
FXUS66 KMFR 131303
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
503 AM PST FRI FEB 13 2026
DISCUSSION
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 12Z TAFS.
AVIATION...13/12Z TAFS
MVFR STRATUS IS IMPACTING MOST AREAS ALONG
THE COAST AND INTO THE UMPQUA BASIN THIS MORNING, INCLUDING AT NORTH
BEND AND ROSEBURG. SOME HAS BLED INTO THE ILLINOIS AND ROGUE VALLEYS
THIS MORNING WITH SOME ALSO SHOWING UP IN THE LOWER KLAMATH RIVER
AND SCOTT VALLEYS IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. SOME OF THIS STRATUS IS
CAUSING AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN TO BE OBSCURED WEST OF THE CASCADES.
EAST OF THE CASCADES AND ACROSS THE REST OF NORCAL, MOST AREAS ARE
VFR WITH JUST SOME HIGH CIRRUS, BUT PATCHY FOG IS PRESENT IN THE
KLAMATH AND GOOSE BASINS AROUND KLAMATH FALLS AND LAKEVIEW. EXPECT
LOWER CONDITIONS TO LIFT TO VFR TODAY, BUT A FRONT WILL PRESS INTO
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING MORE MVFR
CEILINGS, TERRAIN OBSCURATION AND LIGHT RAIN TO THE COAST AND N&W
SECTIONS, WHILE AREAS FARTHER INLAND REMAIN VFR.
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 304 AM PST FRI FEB 13 2026/
SYNOPSIS...MILD WEATHER THE PAST FEW DAYS WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY
TO A COLDER, STORMIER PATTERN THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH
MULTIPLE OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW AND EVEN SOME
POTENTIAL FOR LOW ELEVATION SNOW AT TIMES. WHILE THERE WILL BE
WINTER WEATHER IMPACTS AND HAZARDS, THIS PRECIPITATION IS NEEDED
SINCE WE ARE WAY BEHIND ON WINTER SNOW PACK AND MANY SW OREGON
LOCATIONS ARE EXPERIENCING BELOW NORMAL PRECIP FOR THE WATER YEAR
SO FAR.
DISCUSSION...THE UPPER RIDGE THAT BROUGHT THE SPRINGLIKE WEATHER
THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS WILL SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT BASIN
TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NE PACIFIC TO DROP
SOUTHWARD WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM PUSHING ONSHORE INTO THE PACNW.
PRECIP CHANCES REMAIN MOSTLY TO THE N&W OF OUR CWA TODAY, BUT RAIN
CHANCES DO INCREASE ALONG THE COAST AND NW DOUGLAS COUNTY THIS
AFTERNOON (~60% CHANCE). MOST AREAS THOUGH STILL END UP WITH A
DRY FRIDAY. MINOR AMOUNTS (ONLY UP TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS) ARE
POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST FROM AROUND CAPE BLANCO NORTH TO
REEDSPORT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE WEST OF THE CASCADES (A
FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF NORMAL) AND STILL SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL IN NORCAL AND OVER THE EAST SIDE WHERE THERE'S A BIT
MORE SUNSHINE.
AS ENERGY DIGS INTO AN EVOLVING LONG WAVE TROUGH OFFSHORE, THE
FRONT WILL STALL WEST OF THE CASCADES TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. RAIN
CHANCES REMAIN HIGHEST NORTH AND WEST OF THE ROGUE-UMPQUA DIVIDE,
WHERE RAIN'S A NEAR CERTAINTY (80-100%), BUT DIMINISH TO 30-50%
AROUND MEDFORD/ASHLAND AND EVEN LOWER THAN THAT FOR POINTS SOUTH
AND EAST. RAIN AMOUNTS ARE A BIT TRICKY SINCE THE FRONT WILL BE
WEAKENING IN RESPONSE TO THE ENERGY DIGGING OFFSHORE AND THE
DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NORCAL COAST. 0.25-0.50" SEEMS
LIKE THE MOST LIKELY AMOUNT, WITH UP TO AROUND 1.00" (COASTAL
AREAS) WHERE RAIN IS MOST PERSISTENT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. BUT
HERE IN MEDFORD/ASHLAND, ONLY A HUNDREDTH OR TWO IS CURRENTLY
FORECAST. THE LOW SPINNING UP OFFSHORE WILL CAUSE THE FRONT TO
LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT. THIS SHOULD MAINTAIN SNOW LEVELS AROUND OR ABOVE 4500 FEET
THROUGH SUNDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY
AND THIS WILL FOCUS PRECIPITATION CLOSER TO THE LOW ALONG THE
COAST AND INTO THE USUAL AREAS OF NORCAL, IN WESTERN SISKIYOU
COUNTY AND THE UPSLOPE REGION AROUND MT. SHASTA. BREEZY SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL PICK UP IN THE SHASTA VALLEY SATURDAY AND CONTINUE INTO
SUNDAY. MID-LEVEL FLOW AND PRESSURE GRADIENTS AT THIS TIME DON'T
QUITE SUPPORT WIND ADVISORY LEVELS, THOUGH GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE.
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, ADDITIONAL ENERGY WILL DROP IN FROM THE
NE PACIFIC AND THIS WILL SEND THE LOW OFF THE NORCAL COAST
ONSHORE AROUND SAN FRANCISCO BAY. THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL
BE FOCUSED TO OUR SOUTH (AND THE SIERRA NEVADA WILL LIKELY GET
SLAMMED WITH HEAVY SNOW), BUT A CORRIDOR OF MODERATE TO
OCCASIONALLY HEAVY UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN DIRECTED INTO
PORTIONS OF NORCAL, AND ESPECIALLY THE MT. SHASTA REGION. WE'LL
BE CONSIDERING WINTER STORM WATCHES FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD (AGAIN FOR ELEVATIONS MOSTLY
ABOVE 4500 FEET. LIGHTER SNOW WILL FALL TO THE NORTH OVER THE
MOUNTAINS (INCLUDING THE CASCADES), BUT AMOUNTS LOOK LIGHT AT THIS
TIME.
A DEEP/COLD UPPER LOW WILL THEN MOVE SOUTHWARD (JUST OFF THE
WA/OR COAST) MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. SOME OF THAT COLD AIR WILL
MOVE IN OVER SW OREGON AND THIS WILL BRING ABOUT MORE WIDESPREAD
IMPACTFUL WINTER WEATHER WITH SNOW LEVELS DROPPING TO AROUND 2000
FEET (MAYBE EVEN 1500 FEET OR SO) FOR THE USUAL SPOTS WEST OF THE
CASCADES (HAYES HILL/CAMAS MT). ANYTIME WE GET AN AIR MASS THIS
COLD, THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SNOW AT THE VALLEY FLOORS AND SINCE
THE COLD AIR MASS WILL HANG AROUND FOR A WHILE (TUE-FRI), THERE
WILL BE MULTIPLE OPPORTUNITIES. A LOT WILL DEPEND ON TIMING OF
PRECIP AND JUST HOW SUSTAINED IT IS. AND, GIVEN THE MILD PATTERN
WE'VE BEEN IN FOR THE LAST MONTH, THE GROUND IS QUITE WARM (WITH
DAFFODILS ALREADY BLOOMING IN SOME PLACES!). NIGHTTIME AND MORNING
HOURS WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY TIMES FOR ACCUMULATION AT THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS, BUT AT THIS RANGE, THAT'LL BE DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN.
SO, WE ADVISE TO KEEP CHECKING BACK FOR UPDATES.
HERE ARE SOME PROBABILITIES OF SNOW FROM THE LATEST NBM FOR EARLY
TO MID NEXT WEEK: FROM MONDAY 4PM THROUGH WEDNESDAY 4PM, THERE IS
A HIGH CHANCE (60-95%) FOR SNOWFALL OF 6 INCHES OR GREATER FOR
MOUNTAINS ABOVE 4000 FEET FROM THE CASCADES WEST AND IN MOUNT
SHASTA CITY AND SURROUNDING AREA. THE NBM ALSO SUPPORTS A HIGH
CHANCE (60-80%) FOR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES OR MORE IN
HIGHER ELEVATIONS (ABOVE 4500 FT) IN THE CASCADES AND MOUNTAINS IN
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN SISKIYOU COUNTY. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE
(40-60%) FOR UP TO 12 INCHES OF SNOW IN THE MOUNT SHASTA CITY AREA
DURING THIS PERIOD. AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INLAND MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY, THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW DOWN
TO LOWER PASSES. THE NBM SUPPORTS A 40-60% CHANCE FOR AN INCH OR
MORE OF SNOW ACROSS LOWER PASSES ON I-5 NEAR CANYON MOUNTAIN AND
SEXTON SUMMIT AND A 40-50% CHANCE FOR AN INCH OR MORE OF SNOW AT
HAYES HILL, CAMAS MOUNTAIN, IN THE SOUTHERN ILLINOIS VALLEY, FOR
AREAS IN AND AROUND ASHLAND, AND FOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER KLAMATH
RIVER VALLEY IN WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY. TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY SNOW LEVELS MAY DROP EVEN LOWER, DOWN AS LOW AS
1000-1500 FT WITH A 10-20% CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOWFALL DOWN TO LOWER
VALLEYS SUCH AS MEDFORD, GRANTS PASS AND CANYONVILLE.
AVIATION...13/06Z TAFS...MARINE STRATUS IS MOVING INLAND TO START
THE TAF PERIOD, BRINGING MVFR LEVELS TO NORTH BEND AND OTHER COASTAL
AREAS. MVFR LEVELS ARE ALSO EXPECTED AT ROSEBURG AS THIS LAYER FILLS
THE UMPQUA VALLEY. THIS LAYER AS WELL AS OTHER MID TO HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS LOOKS TO REDUCE THE CHANCES OF DEEP PERSISTENT FOG, BUT
SIGNALS FOR PATCHY FOG REMAIN IN GUIDANCE FOR THESE THREE TERMINALS.
FOR NORTH BEND AND ROSEBURG, LEVELS COULD FLUCTUATE BETWEEN VFR AND
MVFR UNDER THIS LAYER WHILE OTHER AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT
VFR.
AN APPROACHING FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING RAINFALL TO COASTAL AREAS.
THIS FRONT MAY HELP LIFT COASTAL CEILINGS TO VFR HEIGHTS IN THIS TAF
PERIOD, BUT RAIN SHOWERS CAN BRING LOCALLY LOWER CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES AS WELL AS OBSCURE ELEVATED TERRAIN. -TAD
MARINE...UPDATED 300 AM PST FRIDAY, FEBRUARY 13, 2026... SEAS
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TODAY AS A LOW OFF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA
COASTLINE SENDS A SWELL INTO OUR WATERS. THE SWELL WILL PEAK
AT AROUND 13 TO 14 FEET TO 14 TO 16 SECONDS. THESE CONDITIONS
WILL BE HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS
DON'T PICK UP SIGNIFICANTLY AS THIS FRONT EVENTUALLY STALLS IN THE
OUTER WATERS.
A WEAK LOW WILL LIKELY DEVELOP IN OUR WATERS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY BRINGING A QUICK SHOT OF SOUTHERLY WINDS. OVERALL,
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL PERSIST THIS WEEKEND WITH CONDITIONS THAT
ARE HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT. CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO IMPROVE
LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. BUT, SEAS THEN BUILD AGAIN AND ARE LIKELY
TO BECOME HIGH AND STEEP ON TUESDAY.
BEACH HAZARDS...UPDATED 300 AM PST FRIDAY, FEBRUARY 13,
2026...BUILDING WEST TO NORTHWEST LONG PERIOD SWELL WILL PRODUCE
A MODERATE RISK FOR SNEAKER WAVES ALONG THE SOUTHERN OREGON COAST
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
SNEAKER WAVES CAN RUN UP SIGNIFICANTLY FARTHER UP BEACHES THAN
NORMAL, INCLUDING OVER ROCKS AND JETTIES. THESE WAVES CAN SUDDENLY
KNOCK PEOPLE OFF OF THEIR FEET AND SWEEP THEM INTO THE COLD OPEN
WATERS OF THE PACIFIC OCEAN. THE WAVES CAN ALSO MOVE LOGS OR OTHER
OBJECTS WHICH COULD CRUSH OR TRAP ANYONE CAUGHT UNDERNEATH.
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL NOON PST TODAY FOR ORZ021-022.
CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL NOON PST TODAY
FOR PZZ350-356.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST SATURDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-
376.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page