260
FXUS66 KMFR 021155
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
355 AM PST MON FEB 2 2026
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
AVIATION...02/12Z TAFS
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL FOR MOST AREAS. THE
EXCEPTION BEING ALONG THE COAST AND MANY OF THE VALLEYS WEST OF THE
CASCADES WHERE IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS IN FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. WIDESPREAD FOG IS NOT EXPECTED IN
THE ROGUE VALLEY, BUT A FEW HOURS OF "SUNRISE SURPRISE" COULD IMPACT
THE MEDFORD TERMINAL FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING. LOWER FLIGHT
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUT BY LATE MORNING, WITH VFR THEN
PREVAILING IN TO THE EVENING.
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 214 AM PST MON FEB 2 2026/
DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST AND INLAND INTO COASTAL VALLEYS, THE
UMPQUA BASIN AND THE ILLINOIS VALLEY. SKIES ARE CLEAR FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA WITH SOME SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING
THROUGH. THERE COULD BE SOME EARLY MORNING FOG IN THE ROGUE
VALLEY AROUND SUNRISE, BUT THIS SHOULD BE SHORTLIVED WITH PLENTY
OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED TODAY. ONCE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS CLEAR BY LATE
MORNING, SUNNY SKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS TODAY AND
WILL BE A PERSISTENT FEATURE THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS WILL BRING
SIMILAR DAILY CONDITIONS WITH AREAS OF OVERNIGHT/MORNING FOG/LOW
CLOUDS IN WEST SIDE VALLEYS THAT WILL GIVE WAY TO SUNNY SKIES AND
SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES. OVERALL, THE GOING FORECAST IS ON
TRACK AND NO UPDATES ARE NEEDED. PLEASE SEE THE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.
MARINE...UPDATED 200 AM PST MONDAY, FEBRUARY 2, 2026...SWELL
DOMINATED SEAS AND SUB-ADVISORY WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK. SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED AND STEEP INTO TONIGHT, THEN
LOWER BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR A BRIEF TIME ON TUESDAY. STEEP
SEAS ARE LIKELY TO RETURN AROUND MID-WEEK AS ANOTHER BUILDING WEST
SWELL ARRIVES ON WEDNESDAY AND COMBINES WITH A PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST
SWELL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. HIGH
PRESSURE THIS WEEK WILL MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 148 PM PST SUN FEB 1 2026/
DISCUSSION (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
KEY POINTS:
* LITTLE TO NO IMPACTS EXPECTED WITH MOSTLY QUIET WEATHER
* LIGHT PRECIPITATION CHANCES ENDING TODAY
* MONDAY: MORNING FOG FOR WESTSIDE VALLEYS AND SOME EASTSIDE AREAS
* FORECAST TURNS DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK
- WARMEST DAYS WILL BE TUESDAY - THURSDAY
- RECORD WARMTH POSSIBLE FOR ALTURAS AND KLAMATH FALLS
- BROOKINGS MAY APPROACH 70 DEGREES ON WEDNESDAY
FURTHER DETAILS:
WEAK PVA ALOFT COUPLED WITH MOISTURE ADVECTION HAS BROUGHT LIGHT
PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA. BY FAR AND LARGE, LITTLE TO NO IMPACTS
ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS PROGRESSIVE PATTERN. THE FORECAST TURNS
LARGELY DRY THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. IN
FACT, HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS MAY BE MET AT ALTURAS (FEB 4TH/5TH)
AND KLAMATH FALLS (FEB 5TH). RECORDS ARE 65 (FEB 4TH) AND 64 (FEB
5TH) FOR ALTURAS. RECORD IS 59 FOR KLAMATH FALLS. EACH OF THESE DAYS
WE ARE FORECASTING HIGH TEMPERATURES WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF THESE
RECORDS.
A REX BLOCK (HIGH PRESSURE ON THE POLEWARD SIDE OF A CLOSED LOW)
SETS UP AT 500MB OVER THE WEST COAST STARTING TUESDAY. THIS WILL
KEEP THE PATTERN STAGNANT THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THE HIGH OF
THIS REX BLOCK WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
MIDDLE PARTS OF THE WEEK WHICH WILL HELP AID OUR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS. THIS
PATTERN DOES APPEAR TO BREAK DOWN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS A CLOSED
LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE PACIFIC AND ENTER THE PACNW. THIS WILL
BRING OUR NEXT CHANCE AT PRECIPITATION STARTING SATURDAY MORNING.
A LOT WILL DEPEND ON THE STRENGTH OF THE HIGH AS THIS LOW COULD
GET PUSHED TO THE NORTH. AT THIS TIME, WE ARE NOT SEEING ANY
NOTEWORTHY IMPACTS, BUT WE WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON SNOW LEVELS
AND WIND SPEEDS. A LOT WILL DEPEND ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW, BUT
WE HAVE SEVERAL DAYS TO ANALYZE THESE DETAILS LEADING UP TO NEXT
WEEKEND. ALL THAT SAID, NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS
WEATHER AT THIS TIME.
-GUERRERO
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM PST TUESDAY
FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
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