621
FXUS66 KPDT 071657
AFDPDT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
957 AM PDT MON SEP 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH WEST TO EAST THROUGH THIS
EVENING AS AN UPPER LOW DEPARTS THE REGION
- BREEZY WINDS WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE CASCADE GAPS AND LOWER
COLUMBIA BASIN TODAY
- DRYING AND WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEK WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
A POTENTIAL RETURN TO UNSETTLED WEATHER IN THE MOUNTAINS OVER
THE WEEKEND (CONFIDENCE 30-40%)
DISCUSSION
SATELLITE IMAGERY TONIGHT SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW SWINGING INTO ID, WITH CLEAR SKIES DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
WESTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA. MEANWHILE, REGIONAL RADAR
SHOWS A LINE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM LA GRANDE DUE NORTH INTO
THE WA COLUMBIA BASIN AND LIGHTER SHOWERS OVER WALLOWA COUNTY.
TODAY, THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SWING EAST INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES, WITH SHOWERS AND CLOUD COVER CONTINUING TO
DIMINISH WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL MAINLY BE FOCUSED ACROSS WALLOWA COUNTY THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A BRIEF RENEWAL IN SHOWER DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT AS
A SECONDARY LOW QUICKLY SWINGS ACROSS THE AREA.
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, THE FORECAST AREA WILL MOSTLY BE UNDER A
SPLIT FLOW ALOFT THAT'LL BECOME ZONAL AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
TROUGH. A DRYING AND WARMING TREND WILL DEVELOP, WITH AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK INTO THE 80S BY WEDNESDAY (CONFIDENCE
65-80%). THURSDAY, BREEZY WINDS WILL RETURN TO THE FORECAST AREA
AS AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE 15-25MPH WITH STRONGEST GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH.
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL ALSO BE LOW BUT ABOVE CRITICAL
THRESHOLDS ACROSS THE COLUMBIA BASIN AND CASCADE GAPS DURING
THIS TIME, LEADING TO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR
THURSDAY (CONFIDENCE 55-75%).
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND, ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
OF THE UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY PASSING OVER THE PACNW, WITH OVER 80%
OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS (FROM ECMWF, GFS, CANADIAN) FAVORING
SATURDAY FOR LIGHT RAIN IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND LIGHT TO
MODERATE PRECIPITATION IN THE MOUNTAINS. THAT SAID,
DISAGREEMENT IN TIMING OF THE TROUGH EXIT IS GROWING, WITH 22%
OF MEMBERS FAVORING DRY CONDITIONS RETURNING BY SATURDAY NIGHT,
WHEREAS 66% OF MEMBERS FAVOR MOUNTAIN SHOWERS CONTINUING INTO
SUNDAY. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE (40-55%) IN SHOWER ACTIVITY
OVER THE WEEKEND, CONFIDENCE IS LOW (20-25%) IN TIMING AND
EXTENT. OTHERWISE, THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE (50-60%) THAT
THE UPPER TROUGH PASSAGE WILL BRING COOLER CONDITIONS TO THE
FORECAST AREA. LAWHORN/82
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL WITH DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. MAY GET SOME PASSING SCT TO BKN CLOUDS IN PSC/ALW/PDT
BUT NOT EXPECTING MVFR OR BELOW CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE, BREEZY
WINDS IN DLS AND PDT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH WINDS
DECREASING BY THE EVENING HOURS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
PDT 71 44 77 46 / 0 0 0 0
ALW 73 51 78 52 / 20 0 0 0
PSC 76 48 80 49 / 0 0 0 0
YKM 76 51 79 52 / 0 0 0 0
HRI 74 47 80 48 / 0 0 0 0
ELN 71 46 77 48 / 0 0 0 0
RDM 68 38 76 41 / 0 0 0 0
LGD 68 43 75 46 / 20 10 0 0
GCD 67 43 77 46 / 10 0 0 0
DLS 74 52 81 55 / 0 0 0 0
PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...NONE.
OR...NONE.
DISCUSSION...82
AVIATION...95
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