025
FXUS66 KPDT 031202
AFDPDT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
402 AM PST TUE MAR 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY MORNING TODAY WITH LIGHT PRECIP RETURNING THIS AFTERNOON.
- WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION RETURN THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH LIGHT TO
MODERATE MOUNTAIN SNOW. *WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT*
- POTENTIAL FOR BREEZY TO GUSTY WINDS (GUSTS 35-50 MPH) DEVELOPING
WEDNESDAY.
-PERSISTENT PRECIP THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEK WITH BREEZY TO GUSTY
WINDS.
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: OUR REGION WILL REMAIN DRY
THROUGH TODAY'S MORNING HOURS AS THE TRANSIENT RIDGE PASSES.
ENSEMBLES AND MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD ALIGNMENT WITH AN APPROACHING
WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM AROUND TUESDAY AFTERNOON, BRINGING LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS INTO THE EVENING AND NIGHT ALONG THE CASCADE
CRESTS. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE ABOVE 5KFT, MAKING IT MOSTLY RAIN-DRIVEN
AT PASS LEVELS. LIGHT SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX MAY DEVELOP ABOVE
THESE ELEVATIONS (>70% CONFIDENCE). THE NBM PROBABILITY OF 24-HR
PRECIP DEPICTS A 20-40% PROB EXCEEDING 0.15 INCH FOR THE WA CASCADE
CREST AND 10-20% PROB FOR OR CASCADE CREST EXCEEDING 0.10 INCH.
BY WEDNESDAY, PRECIP CHANCES WILL THEN INCREASE ACROSS OUR REGION,
RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS AND LIGHT TO MODERATE MOUNTAIN
SNOW OR RAIN/SNOW MIX. THE NBM PROB OF 24-HR PRECIP REMAINS FAVORING
A 50-80% PROB FOR PRECIP TOTALS AROUND 0.50 INCH OR HIGHER AND 20-
40% PROB FOR 1 INCH OR GREATER ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN AREAS. THE
LOWLANDS MAY SEE ABOUT 0.10 INCH OR LESS (50-80% PROB FROM NBM PROB
OF 24-HR PRECIP), BUT COULD INCREASE TO 0.15 INCH OR MORE (20-40%
PROB).
AS THE UPPER TROUGH PASSAGE MOVING ACROSS THE PACNW WITH THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW WEDNESDAY, LIGHT TO MODERATE MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL
CONTINUE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CASCADES, BLUE MOUNTAINS AND PORTIONS
OF EASTERN OR. SNOW LEVELS WILL START OFF AROUND 4-5KFT IN THE
MORNING, BUT DROPS TO 3-4KFT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SNOW TOTALS MAY RANGE BETWEEN 2 AND 5 INCHES
OVER THE BLUE MOUNTAINS, PORTIONS OF EASTERN OR MOUNTAINS, AND
THE CREST OF WA CASCADES (30-50% CONFIDENCE). ADDITIONALLY,
SNOQUALMIE PASS WILL HAVE LESS THAN 1 INCH (>70% CONFIDENCE).
THE MAIN AREA OF CONCERN WOULD BE THE EAST SLOPES OF OR CASCADES
SINCE MODEL GUIDANCE (EURO, NAMNST AND NAM) ARE DEPICTING 5
INCHES OR MORE. CONFIDENCE IS 50-70% FOR SANTIAM PASS TO GET
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS MORE THAN 6 INCHES, RESULTING IN KEEPING THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST SLOPES OF OR
CASCADES FOR WEDNESDAY FROM 4AM-10PM PST. MODELS AND ENSEMBLES
REMAIN IN GREAT ALIGNMENT WITH THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND THE
ASSOCIATED PRECIP. THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS REMAIN REVEALING
TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS OVER KITTITAS VALLEY TO THE
COLUMBIA BASIN. BREEZY WINDS (GUSTS 35-50 MPH) ARE EXPECTED WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY AS WELL (50-70% CONFIDENCE). THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL MAINLY DEVELOP OVER THE CASCADE
PEAKS/RIDGES AND RIDGES IN THE COLUMBIA BASIN.
THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEK: MODELS AND ENSEMBLES WILL REMAIN IN GREAT
AGREEMENT WITH THAT NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BRINGING PERSISTENT LIGHT
SNOW AND RAIN/SNOW MIX ALONG THE MOUNTAIN ARES (WA/OR CASCADE
CRESTS, BLUE MOUNTAINS, AND EASTERN OR MOUNTAINS) THROUGH FRIDAY.
PRECIP CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TO 20-40% FOR THE BLUES AND
EASTERN OR FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AS WE ENTER
THE ZONAL FLOW OVER THE WEEKEND. DRY CONDITIONS MAY RETURN TO THE
LOWLANDS FOR THAT DURATION UNTIL MONDAY WHEN A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM
ARRIVES. THANKS TO THESE SYSTEMS, GUSTY WINDS (35-50 MPH) WILL BE
EXPECTED OVER THE RIDGES AT THE WA CASCADES AND KITTITAS VALLEY (40-
70% PROB FOR NBM 24-HR MAX GUST). THE TIMING FOR THOSE STRONG WINDS
WOULD BE THURSDAY, SUNDAY, AND MONDAY DURING AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. THE REMAINING LOCATIONS WILL HAVE BREEZY WINDS (20-30 MPH)
(50% CONFIDENCE). FEASTER/97
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL
FOR ALL SITES WITH INCREASING SKY COVERAGE. LATEST GUIDANCE ARE
DEPICTING THAT KDLS, KRDM, KBDN, AND KYKM COULD HAVE LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS AFTER 06Z THIS EVENING (30% PROBABILITY). KDLS/KRDM COULD
ALSO SEE LOW CLOUDS AT 2.5KFT OR LOWER STARTING LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
(10-20% CONFIDENCE). FEASTER/97
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
PDT 61 43 52 37 / 0 40 100 60
ALW 62 45 52 38 / 0 60 100 70
PSC 63 45 58 38 / 0 30 70 20
YKM 58 40 56 33 / 0 30 50 10
HRI 63 45 57 39 / 0 30 80 30
ELN 53 38 50 35 / 10 50 60 20
RDM 59 37 47 31 / 0 20 90 20
LGD 59 42 47 36 / 0 50 100 90
GCD 59 39 46 34 / 0 20 100 80
DLS 58 45 55 41 / 20 70 90 40
PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...NONE.
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 PM PST WEDNESDAY FOR
ORZ509.
DISCUSSION...97
AVIATION...97
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