263
FXUS66 KPDT 122150
AFDPDT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
250 PM PDT SUN JUL 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- COOLER TEMPERATURES TODAY, WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK.
- CHANCES OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
BLUE MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS THROUGH MID-WEEK.
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS PERSIST DUE TO DRY LIGHTNING
AND POTENTIAL LOW RH/BREEZY WINDS IN OTHER PLACES.
DISCUSSION
SATELLITE SHOWS AN AREA OF MID TO HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE REGION WITH RADAR RETURNING LIGHT ECHOES WITH
GENERAL SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN. RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST WITH
MOST OF THE AREA DRYING OUT THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. A
SHORTWAVE OFF THE COAST OF WASHINGTON STATE IS BRINGING
SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH MARGINAL MID-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORTATION.
GOING FORWARD, A RIDGE SITUATED OVER THE LOWER-48 WILL CONTINUE
TO INFLUENCE THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN, ALONG WITH A TROUGH/LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF-SHORE IN THE PACIFIC. GOING THROUGH THIS
WEEK, MONSOONAL MOISTURE TRANSPORTATION ALONG WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW FROM AN OFFSHORE LOW WILL ALLOW CHANCES OF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE BLUE MOUNTAINS AND
EASTERN MOUNTAINS (UP TO 30% CHANCE). GUIDANCE IS A BIT SHAKY
WITH HOW THE OFF-SHORE FLOW WILL BEHAVE TUESDAY ONWARDS, WITH A
SPREAD OF LOCATION AND INTENSITY AMONGST THE CLUSTERS. WEDNESDAY
GUIDANCE SHOWS ABOUT 54% OF CLUSTERS BRINGING IN A STRONGER
SHORTWAVE, WHILE 11% SHOWS A MUCH WEAKER TROUGH. UNCERTAINTY
GROWS MORE GOING INTO THURSDAY WITH 17% OF MEMBERS BRINGING
STRONGER TROUGH AND 27% BRINGING IN A WEAKER SYSTEM. HOW CLOSE
THE TROUGH GETS TO SHORE WILL DETERMINE THE AMOUNT OF
PRECIPITATION AND STRENGTH (OR NUMBER) OF THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A CLOSER/STRONGER TROUGH
WILL BRING BETTER CHANCES OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS THAN THE
OPPOSITE SCENARIO. CURRENT RRFS GUIDANCE ADVERTISES MULTIPLE
ROUNDS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL TO NORTHEASTERN OREGON TUESDAY,
WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY. NOTABLY,
THIS SOLUTION BRINGS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM JUST OFFSHORE AS
THE HEAVIER THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURE WISE, HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE COLUMBIA BASIN
AND KITTITAS VALLEY WILL RISE TO LOW TO HIGH 90S WITH THE RIDGE
SUPPRESSING. TEMPERATURES REMAIN SOMEWHAT FLUCTUANT REGARDING
CONFIDENCE WITH THE POSITION/STRENGTH OF THE LOW THURSDAY
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AS METEOGRAMS SHOW BOX-AND-WHISKER
25TH AND 75TH RANGING 10-20 DEGREES. OVERALL CONFIDENCE POINTS
TO A WARMING TREND THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST AT ALL SITES FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE (30% OR LESS) IN SMOKE FROM AREA WILDFIRES
AFFECTING CIGS/VSBYS AT BDN/RDM.
WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY 10 KTS OR LESS, EXCEPT FOR PERIODIC
AFTERNOON/EVENING GUSTS, ESPECIALLY AT DLS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
PDT 56 91 61 94 / 0 0 0 0
ALW 60 93 65 96 / 0 0 0 0
PSC 57 94 62 98 / 0 0 0 0
YKM 56 94 61 98 / 0 0 0 0
HRI 58 93 64 97 / 0 0 0 0
ELN 53 91 58 94 / 0 0 0 0
RDM 52 92 55 92 / 0 0 0 0
LGD 58 93 63 94 / 0 0 0 10
GCD 57 93 60 93 / 0 0 0 20
DLS 58 93 62 97 / 0 0 0 0
PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...NONE.
OR...NONE.
DISCUSSION...95
AVIATION...86
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