202
FXUS66 KPDT 052224
AFDPDT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
224 PM PST THU FEB 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY AND FOGGY CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY/SATURDAY
- PATTERN CHANGE SATURDAY WILL BRING IN HIGH MOUNTAIN SNOW AND
LOW ELEVATION RAIN.
DISCUSSION
FOR THE EVENING HOURS, THE HREF ENSEMBLE MEAN SHOWS A
BOLSTERING OF THE CHANCES FOR VISIBILITY UNDER ONE HALF MILE,
THROUGH OUT THE FOOTHILLS OF THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN BLUE
MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT COLUMBIA BASIN OF OREGON, HORSE HEAVEN
HILLS, NORTH CENTRAL OREGON AND WELL AS THE SIMCOE HIGHLANDS.
TRENDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL DETERMINE HOW MANY WILL REQUIRE DENSE
FOG ADVISORIES, HOWEVER AN EARLY SHOWING OF HIGHER CONFIDENCE
PROBABILITIES COUPLED WITH THE GFS LAMP FAVORS THE PDT/ALW AREAS
OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL
CHANGE VERY LITTLE ACROSS THE CLOUDY/STRATUS AREAS ESPECIALLY
BELOW 2500 FT. NBM LOW TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY MORNING VARY ONLY
ABOUT 5 DEGREES BETWEEN THE 10TH AND 90TH PERCENTILE MEMBERS
LEADING TO FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE. AS FOR HIGHS, TEMPERATURES
WERE RUNNING ABOUT 5 DEGREES TOO WARM ACROSS THE STRATUS
INFLUENCED AREAS WHICH WILL BE THE CASE AGAIN ON FRIDAY.
THE PATTERN WILL CHANGE FROM A FOG TO A RAIN PATTERN BY
SATURDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW IN THE HIGH
ELEVATIONS OF THE CASCADES, BEGINNING AROUND SUNDAY AND RUNNING
THOUGH MONDAY AS THE SNOW LEVELS CRASH FROM AROUND 5000 FT AGL
TO AROUND 2800-3500 FT BY MONDAY MORNING. THIS SHOULD FAVOR A
FEW INCHES (A TRACE UP TO 2 OR 3) IN THE PASS LEVELS TO SEVERAL
INCHES OF SNOW (6+) IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS BASED ON THE NBM
RIGHT NOW. TOTAL EXPECTED QPF AVERAGES ABOUT 0.75” ACROSS THE
LOWER SLOPES, AROUND ONE HALF TO ONE INCH ACROSS THE BLUE
MOUNTAINS. WITH A COUPLE OF TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN OVER THE
LOW LANDS.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
FOG AND LOW STRATUS REMAIN THE PRIMARY CONCERN THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. THE STRATUS DECK IS THINNEST IN THE VICINITY OF BDN/RDM, AND
HAS SLOSHED IN AND OUT OF BDN, BUT REMAINS ENTRENCHED FARTHER NORTH
AT RDM. THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, HAVE OPTED FOR A PESSIMISTIC
FORECAST FOR BOTH BDN AND RDM AS CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM-HIGH (60
PERCENT) IN STRATUS AND/OR FOG AT BDN AND HIGH (80 PERCENT) AT RDM.
ELSEWHERE, DENSE FOG HAS LIFTED AT PDT, WITH STRATUS PERSISTING AT
OTHER SITES. CONFIDENCE IS VERY HIGH (80-95 PERCENT, VARYING BY
SITE) THAT THE STRATUS WILL PERSIST (BKN-OVC) FOR
DLS/PDT/YKM/ALW/PSC OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY
LIGHT, AND VARIABLE, EXCEPT FOR A 6-10 KT EASTERLY WIND AT DLS THIS
AFTERNOON. 86
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
PDT 32 44 35 53 / 0 0 0 0
ALW 35 45 38 54 / 0 0 0 10
PSC 32 41 34 48 / 0 0 0 10
YKM 32 42 34 44 / 0 0 0 10
HRI 34 42 35 49 / 0 0 0 0
ELN 32 40 32 41 / 0 0 0 30
RDM 27 50 30 56 / 0 0 0 0
LGD 35 57 36 58 / 0 0 0 0
GCD 33 57 34 58 / 0 0 0 0
DLS 37 45 38 49 / 0 0 0 20
PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...NONE.
OR...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL NOON PST SATURDAY FOR ORZ506-509.
DISCUSSION...71
AVIATION...86
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