454
FXUS66 KPDT 272258
AFDPDT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
358 PM PDT THU AUG 27 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SLIGHT CHANCES (10-15%) OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CASCADE AND
EASTERN MOUNTAINS.
- COOLING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
DROPPING TO THE MID TO UPPER 70S BY SATURDAY.
- DIURNAL WINDS WITH PERIODS OF BREEZY WINDS ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
DISCUSSION
SATELLITE AND RADAR DEPICT DRY AND MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE AREA WITH HIGH TO MID CLOUDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS. NOT EXPECTING ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
WITH THIS SYSTEM AS NBM GUIDANCE KEEPS CHANCES <5% THROUGH
TONIGHT. WEATHER OVERALL REMAINS MOSTLY FAIR AND BENIGN AS A
WEAK SHORTWAVE PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. LIFTING WILL BRING
SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS (UP TO 10% CHANCE). REF'S DEVELOP 100-250 J/KG OF
MUCAPE BOTH LATE MORNING TO EARLY EVENING FRIDAY & SATURDAY.
PARTS OF THE FOOTHILLS OF THE BLUES THROUGH CENTRAL OREGON HAVE
GREATER DEVELOPMENT ON FRIDAY THAN SATURDAY, THUS GIVING EACH
AREA UP TO 10% CHANCES OF STORMS DEVELOPING. PWATS ARE DRY WITH
LESS THAN 0.8 INCHES THROUGH THE DEVELOPMENT PERIOD, SO I WOULD
SUSPECT THAT THE MAJORITY OF STORMS THAT WILL DEVELOP THROUGH
THE WEEKEND TO BE MOSTLY DRY WITH AN OCCASIONAL STRONG, WET
STORM. NOT EXPECTING ABUNDANT LIGHTNING WITH THIS SYSTEM, BUT
SOME STORMS CAN STILL BRING LIGHTNING AND POSSIBLY SMALL PEA
SIZE HAIL IN SOME OF THE STRONGEST DEVELOPING STORMS ACROSS THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS.
AS THE SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH, WE'LL SEE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY AS BREEZY WINDS DEVELOP
OVERLAPPING WITH DRY AIR IN THE REGION. NOT EXPECTING CRITERIA
TO HIT OVER A WIDE AREA, BUT COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED AREAS OF
CRITICAL CONDITIONS DEVELOPING IN PARTS OF THE BASIN. AT THE
SAME TIME, TEMPERATURES COOL OFF THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING DOWN TO THE MID TO UPPER 70S BY SATURDAY
(70-90% CONFIDENCE) THAT WILL IMPROVE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AS
WE HEAD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH PARTS OF THE REGION, BUT NOT EXPECTING A
WIDE CRITICAL SET-UP THROUGH THE SHORTWAVE PASSAGE.
GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT OUR NEXT SET-UP FOR A WIDE PRECIP
EVENT WILL BE SOMETIME MID NEXT-WEEK WITH A TROUGH DIGGING DOWN,
BRINGING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT INCREASING POP'S ACROSS THE
BOARD. PLENTY OF TIME TO MONITOR FOR IMPACTS AS IMPACTS LOOK TO
BE A WEEK OUT WITH NO ANTICIPATED SEVERE WEATHER SET-UP AT THIS
TIME.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOME SMOKE
WILL LINGER WITH RDM AT 6SM.
WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO INCREASE ACROSS ALL TAF SITES WITH SUSTAINED
WINDS 10-14 KTS AND GUSTING BETWEEN 20-24KTS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH 01Z BEFORE SETTLING BELOW 12 KTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
PDT 82 47 82 48 / 0 0 0 0
ALW 85 54 84 54 / 0 0 0 0
PSC 88 52 86 52 / 0 0 0 0
YKM 86 55 85 54 / 0 0 0 0
HRI 85 54 86 54 / 0 0 0 0
ELN 77 48 77 48 / 0 0 0 0
RDM 82 42 83 40 / 0 0 0 0
LGD 88 49 86 47 / 0 0 0 10
GCD 91 52 89 50 / 0 0 0 0
DLS 80 57 83 57 / 0 0 0 0
PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL NOON PDT FRIDAY FOR WAZ026-522-523.
OR...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL NOON PDT FRIDAY FOR ORZ041-505-506-
509>511.
DISCUSSION...95
AVIATION...90
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page