972
FXUS66 KPDT 151820
AFDPDT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1120 AM PDT WED JUL 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP MAINLY ACROSS
THE CASCADES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, THEN ACROSS THE
CASCADES AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS ON THURSDAY.
- LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THIS
EVENING, THEN BEGIN TO MOVE NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT AND ON
THURSDAY. MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THAT THE LOW
WILL MOVE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF HIGH PRESSURE INTO BRITISH
COLUMBIA.
- A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION WITH
WARMING TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK,
POSSIBLY REACHING OR EXCEEDING 100 DEGREES IN THE COLUMBIA
BASIN AND NEARBY LOCATIONS.
DISCUSSION
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA AND SEVERAL SHORT WAVES
MOVING THROUGH IT WILL KEEP THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH
THURSDAY. ADDITIONALLY, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST
WAS HEADING SOUTH AND EAST AND WILL PROVIDE ENHANCEMENT TO THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. THIS LOW WILL BEGIN TO MOVE NORTHWARD
TONIGHT AND BE IN BRITISH COLUMBIA FRIDAY MORNING.
ONCE THE LOW MOVES NORTH, THE RIDGE TO THE EAST WILL BUILD IN
AND ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL COME TO AN END THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S TO
AROUND 100 DEGREES (IF NOT HIGHER) AS WE GO INTO THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE COLUMBIA BASIN, YAKIMA VALLEY AND
PORTIONS OF THE BLUE MOUNTAIN FOOTHILLS. THESE TEMPERATURES
WOULD BE 15 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. HEATRISK WILL BE
SOLIDLY MODERATE ACROSS MUCH OF OUR AREA, WITH A 30 TO 50
PERCENT CHANCE OF MAJOR HEATRISK EARLY NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE
COLUMBIA BASIN AND YAKIMA VALLEYS.
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, ADDITIONAL SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING
ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCE, MAINLY TO THE
MOUNTAINS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD,
ALBEIT WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS, THUNDERSTORMS, AND BREEZY WINDS
DUE TO A LOW-PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT IS CHURNING JUST OFFSHORE OF
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO INITIATE BY MID-
AFTERNOON IN CENTRAL OREGON THEN TRACK NORTHWARD AND EXPAND IN
COVERAGE OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING SUCH THAT DLS AND YKM
WILL ALSO HAVE CHANCES OF CONVECTION. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING IS
STILL SHAKY ENOUGH TO HAVE PROB30 GROUPS INSTEAD OF TEMPO OR
PREVAILING SHOWERS.
HIGH-RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO
LOCALLY SEVERE OUTFLOW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL
OREGON WITH WINDS EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL TO
CENTRAL WASHINGTON BY THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. CHANCES OF
STRONG OUTFLOW ARE LOWER (<30% CHANCE) FOR PDT/ALW IN NORTHEAST
OREGON AND SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
PDT 97 62 93 57 / 20 20 20 10
ALW 100 67 97 63 / 10 20 20 10
PSC 101 66 99 62 / 10 20 20 10
YKM 99 67 97 60 / 10 70 40 10
HRI 100 67 96 61 / 20 20 20 0
ELN 96 64 93 57 / 0 70 50 10
RDM 91 55 87 47 / 30 30 0 0
LGD 96 61 97 58 / 20 20 30 20
GCD 94 58 97 55 / 30 20 10 10
DLS 98 65 85 59 / 20 70 20 0
PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR WAZ024.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR WAZ026>029.
OR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR ORZ041.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR ORZ044-049-050-507.
DISCUSSION...77
AVIATION...86
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