635
FXUS66 KPDT 251748
AFDPDT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1048 AM PDT MON MAY 25 2026
.UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.
KEY MESSAGES
- CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.
- BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOP MONDAY WITH A WIND ADVISORY
IN EFFECT.
- CONDITIONS TREND DRIER TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
CURRENT SATELLITE AND RADAR DEPICT DRY CONDITIONS WITH SOME HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING IN THE CASCADE REGION. CONDITIONS REMAIN DRY
WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT. WHILE LOCAL RADAR SHOWS NO PRECIPITATION, RADARS OUT OF
PDX AND SEA ARE PICKING UP A LINE OF PRECIPITATION OUT IN THE
PACIFIC THAT'S ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. GFS
AND EURO DETERMINISTIC MODELS ADVERTISE A TROUGH IN THE SAME
AREA THAT WILL PROPAGATE TO THE EAST. CONDITIONS THROUGH TODAY
WILL SUCCUMB TO THE APPROACHING WEATHER SYSTEM, INTRODUCING
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING. STRONG WIND GUSTS ABOVE WIND CRITERIA IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP FROM CENTRAL OREGON THROUGH THE SIMCOE HIGHLANDS MONDAY
MORNING THROUGH THE LATER EVENING HOURS.
GOING THROUGH MONDAY, THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
OCCUR IN THE LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING HOURS (70 TO 90
PERCENT CHANCE). THE GREATEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 3 TO 7 PM WITH THE GREATEST HEAT PRESENT.
MOST LIKELY PLACE TO SEE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ALONG
THE NORTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS, FOOTHILLS OF THE BLUES, AND THE
WALLOWA'S. PAINTBALLS ON HREF FOR >40 DBZ & MUCAPE >50 J/KG
DEVELOP ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AT AROUND 3 PM THROUGH 11 PM.
ALTHOUGH WE EXPECT CONVECTION CHANCES TO QUICKLY DETERIORATE
AFTER SUNSET.
THE COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING UP TO 0.25" TO 0.50" ACROSS
THE BLUE MOUNTAINS (60-80% CHANCE) WITH THE LOWER ELEVATIONS
ANTICIPATED TO SEE UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH (60-80% CHANCE)
THROUGH TODAY. ALOFT, THE TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION
AND A SHORT-LIVE RIDGE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE REGION, THOUGH THE
INFLUENCE OF THE TROUGH WILL STILL LARGELY INFLUENCE THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE CWA, THAT CHANCES OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION WITH AN EMBEDDED COLD FRONT WILL ONCE AGAIN PUSH
THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY, BRINGING INCREASED CHANCES OF LIGHT
TO MODERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
(ACCORDING TO THE NBM) ADVERTISE TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD AND
GREATER THAN TODAY. CHANCES OF A STORM PRODUCING INCREASE 20 TO
30 PERCENT ACROSS THE REGION. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR TRENDS IN
WIND AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS WE HEAD CLOSER TO THIS EVENT.
PRIOR TO THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON THURSDAY, HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL REACH IN THE 80S TO LOW 90S (50-70% CHANCE), BRINGING MINOR
HEATRISK WITH A VALUE OF "1" AREA WIDE, EFFECTING THE MOST
SUSCEPTIBLE PARTS OF THE POPULATION THAT ARE SENSITIVE TO HEAT
RISKS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY ACROSS ALL SITES, WHICH WILL STAY THE
COURSE THROUGH THE PERIOD. WIDESPREAD WIND GUSTS OF 20-30KTS ARE
EXPECTED, AS LIGHT RAIN ALSO PASSES THROUGH THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL
STAY ELEVATED THROUGH THE DAY BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND
CEILINGS WILL DROP TO 5KFT AS THE SYSTEM PASSES THIS AFTERNOON,
WHICH CONTINUES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. 75
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
PDT 82 43 61 45 / 0 90 50 60
ALW 84 47 61 48 / 0 70 60 60
PSC 86 44 68 46 / 0 70 20 40
YKM 78 45 69 48 / 0 30 0 10
HRI 83 44 65 46 / 0 80 20 40
ELN 73 41 63 45 / 0 40 10 10
RDM 80 33 59 35 / 0 30 20 40
LGD 86 41 54 43 / 10 70 90 80
GCD 87 38 55 39 / 0 90 70 90
DLS 76 45 69 50 / 0 20 10 10
PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR WAZ027-521.
OR...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ORZ510-511.
DISCUSSION...95
AVIATION...75
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