871
FXUS66 KPDT 021143
AFDPDT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
343 AM PST MON FEB 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WEAK WARM FRONT TODAY
- HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
- LIKELY PATTERN CHANGE BY THE WEEKEND
DISCUSSION
TODAY, A WEAK WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL CAUSE SNOW LEVELS TO
RISE ABOVE MOUNTAIN PASS LEVELS THROUGH THE DAY. PRIOR TO SNOW
LEVELS RISING, LIGHT SNOW (TRACE TO 2 INCHES) IS FORECAST FOR
THE WASHINGTON CASCADES. OUTSIDE OF THE YAKIMA AND KITTITAS
VALLEYS AND NORTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS, MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION
IS NOT ANTICIPATED EAST OF THE CASCADES.
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS ALL SHOW SOME FLAVOR
OF AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. THIS PATTERN FAVORS AIR STAGNATION, LOWLAND STRATUS
AND FOG, AND WARM MOUNTAIN TEMPERATURES. HAVE INCLUDED A MENTION
OF PATCHY FOG IN THE GRIDDED FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
SINCE CONFIDENCE IS HIGH (80 PERCENT) THAT THERE WILL BE AT
LEAST PERIODS OF FOG IN THE COLUMBIA BASIN AND SURROUNDING
LOWLANDS. ALSO WORTH A MENTION, SHOULD WIDESPREAD FOG AND
STRATUS MATERIALIZE, AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ALMOST
CERTAINLY FAIL TO REACH THE NBM'S OPTIMISTICALLY WARM VALUES FOR
AREAS AFFECTED BY FOG/STRATUS. MOREOVER, THE NBM'S CLOUD COVER
FORECAST IS SHOWING MOSTLY SCT-BKN SKIES IN THE LOWLANDS, BUT
OVC CONDITIONS ARE MORE REPRESENTATIVE OF WHAT IS TYPICALLY
OBSERVED IN THIS PATTERN.
BY NEXT WEEKEND, ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS SHOW GOOD POTENTIAL FOR A
RETURN TO AN ACTIVE WINTER PATTERN, THOUGH WITH ENSEMBLE
MEMBERSHIP AT ROUGHLY A 60:40 SPLIT BETWEEN A WETTER TROUGHING
PATTERN AND A DRIER RIDGING PATTERN, CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST
DETAILS IS LOW.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
ASIDE FROM IFR CIGS
THIS MORNING AT DLS, ANTICIPATING VFR CONDITIONS AS WE AWAIT THE
ARRIVAL OF A WEAK WARM FRONT LATER THIS MORNING. CIGS WILL
LOWER LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT CROSSES
THE REGION, THOUGH PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIMITED; TEMPORARY -RA
IS FORECAST AT YKM, WHILE ALW/PSC HAVE PROB30 GROUPS INCLUDED.
ELSEWHERE, DID NOT INCLUDE A MENTION OF PRECIPITATION AT
DLS/PDT, WITH ONLY 10-20 PERCENT CHANCES OF -RA FORECAST.
UNLESS FG MANAGES TO FORM THIS MORNING AT RDM (CONFIDENCE TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF), BDN/RDM WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH ONLY FEW TO SCT MID- AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUD.
SUSTAINED WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY LIGHT AT 10 KTS OR LESS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
PDT 36 51 33 50 / 10 0 0 0
ALW 38 50 36 51 / 10 0 0 0
PSC 33 50 34 50 / 10 0 0 0
YKM 33 49 34 50 / 10 0 0 0
HRI 34 50 34 49 / 10 0 0 0
ELN 33 44 33 46 / 20 0 0 0
RDM 28 58 27 58 / 0 0 0 0
LGD 34 55 36 54 / 10 0 0 0
GCD 32 57 33 57 / 0 0 0 0
DLS 37 52 37 50 / 10 0 0 0
PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...NONE.
OR...NONE.
DISCUSSION...86
AVIATION...86
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