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FXUS66 KPDT 262341
AFDPDT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
440 PM PDT THU MAR 26 2026
.UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.
KEY MESSAGES
1. DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY
2. A TROUGH WILL BRING INCREASED CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION MONDAY
THROUGH MIDWEEK
DISCUSSION
CURRENT SATELLITE SHOWS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL REMAIN 5-10 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMAL
ACCORDING TO IN HOUSE COMPARISON. WEST TO NORTH-WEST FLOW ALOFT IS
WHAT IS KEEPING TEMPERATURES ON THE COOLER SIDE. NBM SHOWS
TEMPERATURES TODAY TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION WITH HIGHER TERRAINS SEEING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S
AND NBM RAW ENSEMBLES SHOW 60-80% AGREEMENT.
DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN FIRM AGREEMENT WITH THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE MOVING OVER THE REGION BEGINNING LATE THURSDAY EVENING INTO
FRIDAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING IN CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS
AND INCREASINGLY WARMER TEMPERATURES. IN HOUSE SEASONAL TEMPERATURE
COMPARISON SHOWS THAT TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE TO NEARLY 15
DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN AND
PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN REGION. TEMPERATURES IN THE BASIN, ADJACENT
VALLEYS AND THE FOOTHILLS WILL REMAIN AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
90% OF THE NBM RAW ENSEMBLES SHOWS CENTRAL OR AND PORTIONS OF THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS SEEING TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S, 60-
80% SHOW THE FOOTHILLS, GORGE, LA GRANDE AREA AND EVEN WALLOWA
VALLEY WILL SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. ELSEWHERE
WILL SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 50S. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN
THE MID TO UPPER 60S THROUGH SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM (70-90%
CONFIDENCE)
BEGINNING SUNDAY MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE A BIT WITH CLUSTERS SHOWING
THE MAIN DEVIANCE BETWEEN THE MODELS BEING THAT OF THE TIMING OF THE
SYSTEM. THE ECMWF HAS PRECIPITATION COMING IN AS EARLY AS SUNDAY
NIGHT WHERE THE GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS DO NOT HAVE PRECIPITATION
REACHING THE CASCADES UNTIL AFTER 5 AM MONDAY. REGARDLESS OF THIS
DEVIATION, ALL MODELS DO SHOW INCREASED CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
STEADILY MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK. 24 HOUR NBM RAW
ENSEMBLES SHOW PROBABILITIES OF RAIN FOR SUNDAY ARE LOW, BELOW 40%
PROBABILITIES OF 0.01 IN THE CASCADES. AS WE SHIFT TO MONDAY
HOWEVER, 24 HOUR ENSEMBLES SHOW PROBABILITIES OF 60-70% FOR UP TO
0.01-0.05 INCHES OF RAIN FOR THE CASCADES AND 40-60% FOR THE
NORTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ENSEMBLES SHOW 30-50%
PROBABILITIES OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE BASIN, ADJACENT VALLEY
AND THE FOOTHILLS SEEING 0.01-0.05 INCHES OF RAIN.
SNOW LEVELS WILL STEADILY COME DOWN AS THE TROUGH MAKES ITS WAY
ACROSS THE REGION. MONDAY SNOW LEVELS ARE ABOVE 2500 FEET AND NBM
ENSEMBLES SHOW 50-60% PROBABILITIES OF SNOW ACCUMULATING BETWEEN 0.5-
1 INCH FOR THE WA CASCADES AND THESE AMOUNTS WITH BE ABOVE 3500 FEET
FOR THE OR CASCADES. TUESDAY THE CASCADES WILL CONTINUE SEEING VERY
LIGHT SNOWFALL WHILE THE NORTHERN BLUES WILL SEE 40% PROBABILITIES
OF 0.05 INCHES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AND 50-60% FOR THE CASCADES.
THURSDAY APPEARS TO BE THE PEAK AS OF NOW WITH 60-70% PROBABILITIES
OF 2-3 INCHES FOR BOTH THE CASCADES AND THE NORTHERN BLUES. 90
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY AT ALL SITES, WHICH WILL STAY THE COURSE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP SKIES CLEAR AND
WINDS LIGHT (BELOW 10KTS). 75
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
PDT 29 60 36 63 / 0 0 0 0
ALW 33 61 41 62 / 0 0 0 0
PSC 30 63 37 67 / 0 0 0 0
YKM 30 59 36 64 / 0 0 0 0
HRI 29 62 36 66 / 0 0 0 0
ELN 27 55 33 57 / 0 0 0 0
RDM 22 68 31 65 / 0 0 0 0
LGD 27 62 34 65 / 0 0 0 0
GCD 28 66 35 67 / 0 0 0 0
DLS 33 63 39 65 / 0 0 0 0
PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...NONE.
OR...NONE.
DISCUSSION...90
AVIATION...75
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