697
FXUS66 KPDT 292247
AFDPDT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
247 PM PST SAT NOV 29 2025
DISCUSSION
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA IS COVERED BY A DECK OF LOW
CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON, WITH SOME PATCHY FOG REPORTED ALONG THE
FOOTHILLS OF THE BLUES, AS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PUSHES A COLD
AIR MASS INTO THE PACNW. RIDING THIS NW FLOW WILL BE A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH, WHICH THREATENS TO BRING A ROUND OF SNOW TO PRIMARILY THE
BLUE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THE REGION
WILL THEN FALL UNDER THIS COLD NW PATTERN FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT WEEK.
IN TRACKING THIS UPCOMING SHORTWAVE, HI-RES MODELS SEEM TO SHIFT THE
MID AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS MORE NORTHERLY BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS.
THIS HAS RESULTED IN A SHIFT OF THE SNOW FORECAST AWAY FROM THE
NORTHERN BLUES AND MORE TOWARD THE SOUTHERN STRETCH OF THE
MOUNTAINS. SHOULD CONTINUE TO NOTE THAT THIS SYSTEM REMAINS MOISTURE-
STARVED DUE TO ITS CONTINENTAL POLAR ORIGIN, WITH NAM PWATS RANGING
IN THE 0.3 TO 0.5 RANGE, SO MUCH OF THE DYNAMICS DRIVING THE PRECIP
IN THIS SYSTEM WILL BE OROGRAPHIC. EVEN THEN, GUIDANCE GENERALLY
ONLY DEPICTS ABOUT AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ALONG THE
RIDGETOPS OF THE SOUTHERN BLUES, WITH A HOTSPOT AROUND THE
STRAWBERRIES. STILL, SUCH PATTERNS DO FAVOR OROGRAPHIC SNOW ALONG
THE FOOTHILLS OF THE BLUES, WOULD COULD POTENTIALLY IMPACT
PENDLETON. BUT WITH THE MORE NORTHERLY TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM,
CONFIDENCE HAS DECREASED A LITTLE ON PENDLETON RECEIVING EVEN A HALF
INCH OF SNOW. SUCH A SCENARIO ISN'T INCONCEIVABLE, BUT FORECASTING
MESSAGE AROUND THIS SYSTEM GENERALLY LEANS TOWARD A 'DUSTING' OF
SNOW RATHER THAN ANYTHING PARTICULARLY IMPACTFUL.
TRANSITORY RIDGING THEN MOVES IN LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, BRINGING
WITH IT THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IN THE BASIN. THE
NEXT SYSTEM THEN LOOKS TO IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA LATE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. MODELS THUS FAR FAVOR A MORE NORTHWESTERLY TRAJECTORY FOR
THIS SYSTEM, WHICH WOULD RESULT IN ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL FOR THE
NORTHERN BLUES MORE SO THAN THE SOUTHERN, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW
(30%) IN THIS SYSTEM RESULTING IN ANY HEADLINES, WITH ONLY A COUPLE
INCHES CURRENTLY FORECASTED FOR MEACHAM, TOLLGATE, ETC. ENSEMBLES
SUGGEST WE'LL REMAIN LOCKED IN THIS NW FLOW PATTERN THROUGH AT LEAST
THE END OF NEXT WEEK, WITH INTERMITTENT PRECIP CHANCES MATERIALIZING
AS SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW REGIME SWEEP THROUGH THE
PACNW. 74
AVIATION...00Z TAFS
RDM/PSC ARE IFR DUE TO LOW CIGS WHILE BDN
IS MVFR AND PDT/ALW REMAIN LIFR. THIS WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT
FORECAST PERIOD. THE CLOUDS ARE FIGHTING TO LIFT WITH THE ONLY
SITES EXPECTING TO SEE VFR IS DLS, THEN BDN/RDM LATER IN THE
PERIOD. DLS/YKM ARE ALL VFR FOR NOW BEFORE DLS WILL SEE LOWERING
CIGS AND VSBY AS THE SNOW SHOWERS MOVE ACROSS THE SITES. PDT/ALW
WILL SEE A RAIN/SNOW MIX AROUND 03Z AND LASTING THROUGH 07Z WHILE
PSC/DLS HAVE A 30% PROBABILITY OF ALSO SEEING A RAIN/SNOW MIX
DURING THE SAME TIMEFRAME. THE ONLY SITE NOT PLAGUED WITH FG/LOW
CIGS AND LOW VSBY IS YKM WHICH WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.
CIGS AND VSBY WILL AFFECT THE REMAINING TAF SITES THROUGH THE
ENTIRETY OF THE PERIOD. LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE TIMING (30%) WHEN
CIGS AND VSBY WILL LIFT AND THEN DEGRADE WILL BE THE CHALLENGE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. 90
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
PDT 25 37 23 38 / 60 0 0 0
ALW 28 36 26 37 / 40 10 0 10
PSC 24 39 24 36 / 20 0 0 0
YKM 23 42 24 38 / 10 0 0 10
HRI 26 39 24 37 / 40 0 0 0
ELN 21 39 23 37 / 10 0 0 10
RDM 23 39 19 49 / 20 10 0 0
LGD 26 40 21 43 / 60 0 0 0
GCD 26 39 22 47 / 60 0 0 0
DLS 32 44 30 43 / 20 0 0 10
PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...74
AVIATION...90
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