461
FXUS66 KPDT 172157
AFDPDT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
157 PM PST THU JAN 17 2019
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL BE EXITING THE REGION TONIGHT AHEAD OF A BUILDING RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE. THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS OVERNIGHT BUT
OVERALL BE ON THE DECREASE. A WARM FRONT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
BUILDING RIDGE WHICH WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE REST OF
THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL BE A VERY WET SYSTEM WITH SNOW LEVELS
INITIALLY 4000 TO 5000 FEET BUT RISING RAPIDLY TO 5000 TO 7000 FEET
FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL BE NO ADVISORIES ISSUED AT THIS TIME BUT
SOME OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS COULD SEE SOME SIGNIFICANT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN OREGON ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM
FRONT. A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL THEN OCCUR QUICKLY SATURDAY
MORNING WITH THE FRONT STALLING OVER SOUTHERN OREGON LATE IN THE
DAY. THIS COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO LIFT BACK NORTHWARD SATURDAY
NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT BRINING MORE PRECIPITATION MAINLY ACROSS
OREGON. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE BACK DOWN TO 3000 TO 5000 FEET ON
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY, EXITING
TO THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY. THE DEEP MOISTURE
PROFILE DOES NOT LOOK AS RICH AS EARLIER IN THE WEEKEND, WITH PRECIP
AMOUNTS IN THE 0.25-0.50 INCH RANGE FOR THE MOUNTAINS, AND 0.10-0.25
INCH FOR THE LOWLANDS. SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL TO 2500-4000 FEET BY
SUNDAY NIGHT, RESULTING IN SOME ACCUMULATING SNOWS FOR THE
MOUNTAINS, BUT CHANCES OF ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWS LOOK RATHER LOW.
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE REGION WILL RESIDE ALONG THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. GIVEN THE LOW AMPLITUDE OF THE
RIDGE, WEAK WAVES WILL RIDE OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE, BRINGING
PERIODIC CHANCES OF RAIN/MOUNTAIN SNOW, WITH LITTLE PRECIP EXPECTED
FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. BY WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY, THE RIDGE IS
PROGGED TO AMPLIFY JUST OFFSHORE WA/OR, RESULTING IN DRIER
CONDITIONS AREA WIDE. NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN
BE EXPECTED.
AVIATION...00Z TAFS
A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT, BUT WITH MOISTURE LIMITED, THINK ANY PRECIP WILL OCCUR IN
THE MOUNTAINS, REMAINING AWAY FROM THE TAF SITES, THUS WILL REMOVE
ANY MENTION THROUGH MOST OF FRIDAY. SOME LOW CLOUDS/FOG WILL PERSIST
AT PDT/ALW WITH PERIODS OF IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING
WHEN INCREASING WINDS WILL RESULT IN IMPROVING CONDITIONS. THE OTHER
SITES WILL EXPERIENCE MAINLY VFR TO MVFR. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT
SYSTEM WILL ENTER FROM THE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY AFTERNOON, WITH -RA AND
RESTRICTIONS AT RDM/BDN/DLS. WINDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT/FRIDAY TO 8-
14KT WITH GUSTS TO 20-25 KT POSSIBLE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
PDT 34 49 40 51 / 20 10 90 40
ALW 35 50 43 52 / 20 10 90 50
PSC 35 49 40 52 / 20 0 90 20
YKM 31 42 35 46 / 20 20 100 20
HRI 35 49 40 52 / 20 10 90 20
ELN 32 40 34 42 / 20 20 90 20
RDM 32 44 37 50 / 20 100 100 40
LGD 34 43 38 44 / 30 10 100 70
GCD 32 44 38 47 / 20 40 90 60
DLS 35 44 39 49 / 20 90 100 30
PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
91/80/80
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