865
FXUS66 KPDT 291745
AFDPDT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1045 AM PDT TUE SEP 29 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT TO MODERATE MOUNTAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE WA CASCADES AND
NORTHERN BLUES TODAY
- BREEZY WINDS THROUGH THE COLUMBIA BASIN AND EASTERN COLUMBIA
RIVER GORGE THIS AFTERNOON
- NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES, MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS, AND
LIGHT WINDS DEVELOP INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
NIGHTTIME SATELLITE IMAGERY TONIGHT SHOWS
INCREASING MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST. MEANWHILE RADAR IS SHOWING RETURNS MOSTLY OVER
NORTHWEST WA AT THIS TIME, WITH RETURNS SLOWLY EXPANDING SOUTH
AND EAST.
TODAY AND WEDNESDAY: ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGHOUT TODAY AND WEDNESDAY, HOWEVER AN UPPER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING THROUGH BC WILL CLIP THE WA
CASCADES AND NORTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS THESE AREAS.
SINCE 24 HOURS AGO, CHANCES FOR 0.1 INCHES OF PRECIP IN THE
NORTHERN BLUES HAS FALLEN QUITE A BIT, WITH ONLY A 10-25% CHANCE
THROUGH TONIGHT. MEANWHILE, THERE IS A 70-95% CHANCE OF 0.25
INCHES ALONG PORTIONS OF THE WA CASCADES AND EAST SLOPES
(HIGHEST CHANCES IN CENTRAL WA CASCADES, LOWEST SOUTH CENTRAL WA
CASCADES). IN ADDITION TO THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH, A WEAK COLD
FRONT BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ACROSS WA DURING THE DAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN BREEZY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS (15-25MPH WITH GUSTS
25-40 MPH) IN THE COLUMBIA BASIN AND EASTERN GORGE DEVELOPING
THROUGHOUT THE DAY, WITH LIGHT TO LOCALLY BREEZY WINDS
ELSEWHERE.
FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL BUILD INTO
THE WESTERN CONUS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING, RESULTING IN A RETURN TO
DRY CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY: ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT NEAR ZONAL FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE PACNW AS A FLAT RIDGE
REMAINS JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW A SUBTLE
SHORTWAVE TO SLIDE ACROSS THE PACNW THURSDAY, WITH VERY LIGHT
SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WA CASCADES DURING THE DAY
(CONFIDENCE 55-65%).
FRIDAY, ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE ARE IN FAVOR OF
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINNING TO BUILD INTO THE PACNW FROM THE
SOUTH, WITH A DRYING AND WARMING TREND BEGINNING. HOWEVER, ABOUT
22% OF MEMBERS MADE UP FROM THE ECMWF, GFS, AND CANADIAN
ENSEMBLE SUITES FAVOR ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH QUICKLY SLIDING
ACROSS THE AREA, RESULTING IN ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS ACROSS
THE CASCADE CREST/EAST SLOPES AND THE NORTHERN BLUES FRIDAY. AT
THIS TIME, CONFIDENCE IS LOW (20%) IN THIS SOLUTION DEVELOPING.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY: UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD OVER THE PACNW OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
(CONFIDENCE 50-70%). TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND, WITH A RETURN TO 80 DEGREE TEMPS NEXT MONDAY (50-75%
CHANCE). OTHERWISE, DRY CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL
DURING THIS PERIOD. LAWHORN/82
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING WITH THE WEATHER HIGHLIGHT THIS PERIOD
BEING THE WINDS. BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL
DEVELOP/INITIALIZE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS
WITH A PRE-FRONTAL SYSTEM PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA.
DLS/PDT/ALW/PSC WILL SEE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS AS HIGH AS 25 TO 35 KNOTS. BY THE EARLY EVENING HOURS,
WINDS WILL CALM DOWN TO 12 KNOTS OR LESS.
PSC IS CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO
LOCAL FIRES BRINGING SMOKEY AND HAZY CONDITIONS IN THE AREA. IT
IS DIFFICULT TO FORECAST HOW LONG IT SHOULD PERSIST, BUT AS
DAYTIME MIXING IMPROVES THROUGH THE MORNING WE SHOULD SEE SOME
IMPROVEMENT. A TEMPO GROUP VIA AMENDING MAY BE NECESSARY LATER
ON IF IT PERSISTS LONGER THAN ANTICIPATED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
PDT 78 49 72 45 / 0 0 0 0
ALW 77 54 72 49 / 0 0 10 0
PSC 80 50 75 47 / 0 0 0 0
YKM 78 51 72 49 / 10 0 0 0
HRI 79 52 74 48 / 0 0 0 0
ELN 71 44 66 43 / 20 20 0 0
RDM 77 39 75 41 / 0 0 0 0
LGD 78 47 70 45 / 0 0 0 0
GCD 78 43 75 44 / 0 0 0 0
DLS 78 55 77 52 / 0 0 0 0
PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...NONE.
OR...NONE.
DISCUSSION...82
AVIATION...95
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