829
FXUS66 KPDT 150542
AFDPDT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
942 PM PST SAT FEB 14 2026
UPDATED FOR AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- MOUNTAIN SNOW AND LOWLAND RAINS TONIGHT
- MOUNTAIN SNOW AND LOWLAND RAINS REDEVELOPING MONDAY AFTERNOON
ONTO TUESDAY MORNING
- MORE MOUNTAIN SNOW AND AND LOWLAND RAINS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY
DISCUSSION
THE OREGON CASCADES SHOULD RECEIVE THE MOST SNOW FOR TODAYS
PERIOD INTO TONIGHT, HOWEVER, LARGELY SUB ADVISORY AMOUNTS. THE
NAM AND OTHER MODELS HAVE FAR HIGHER, OVERDONE NUMBERS COMPARED
TO THE HRRR WHICH CAPS OUT ABOUT 6 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF OT509 THOUGH 8Z SUNDAY (MIDNIGHT LOCAL).
HRRR ALSO SHOWS SHOW ACCUMULATIONS OVERSPREADING THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS AROUND THE DLS HOWEVER THE EXPECTED SNOW LEVELS DO
NOT MATCH UP WITH THE LOCAL ELEVATIONS AND NBM MEMBERS OFFER
ONLY A PROBABILISTIC 10% OF SNOWFALL OF 2 INCHES OR MORE TONIGHT
ACROSS OR510. SANTIAM PASS HAS ABOUT A LESS THAN 10% CHANCE OF
REACHING OR EXCEEDING ADVISORY CRITERIA SNOWFALL OF ABOUT 5
INCHES THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING BASED ON NBM AND ABOUT 50% BASED
ON HREF ALONE. THIS POINTS TO RELATIVELY HIGH CONFIDENCE ON
LOWER END IMPACTS, HOWEVER SLICK ROADS SHOULD STILL BE PLANNED
ON EVEN WITH AS LITTLE AS ONE INCH OF SNOW.
SNOW AMOUNTS PICK UP AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING, WHICH IS ANOTHER TARGET OF OPPORTUNITY FOR WINTER
WEATHER IMPACTS. HOWEVER THE CONFIDENCE FOR ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWS
STILL REMAINS NOT HIGH, AS THE MAIN NBM (EXPECTED) FORECAST
ONLY REACHES 2-4 INCHES UP TO ABOUT 5000 FT. FOR THIS PERIOD THE
WSSI-P (PROBABILISTIC IMPACTS) INDICATES ONLY ABOUT A 20-40%
CHANCES FOR MINOR IMPACTS (OCCASIONAL INCONVENIENCES/WINTER
DRIVING CONDITIONS) FOR THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE OREGON AND
WASHINGTON CASCADES.
NAEFS ESAT TABLES POINT TOWARD A SOUTHWARD TRAJECTORY FOR THE
IVT/IWV ON TUESDAY ACROSS CENTRAL CA WHICH DOES NOT SUPPORT A
HIGH IMPACT SNOW EVENT FOR THE PDT AREA, NEVERTHELESS, A
PROLONGED DURATION FOR SNOW ACCUMULATION IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE
TIME WINDOW BETWEEN TUESDAY NIGHT AND AND FRIDAY WHERE AMOUNTS
COULD BE HIGH ENOUGH TO REQUIRE WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
CONDITIONS HAVE BEGUN TO DETERIORATE ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE
SOME SITES REMAIN VFR, SOME MVFR AND EVEN LIFR AT BDN AND RDM
HAVE MOVED IN. EXPECT FURTHER LOWERING OVERNIGHT TO MVFR/IFR AT
MOST SITES AND THOSE CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY SUNDAY BEFORE SOME IMPROVEMENT IS POSSIBLE LATER SUNDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
PDT 36 46 35 44 / 80 40 30 70
ALW 38 46 37 45 / 90 60 40 80
PSC 37 49 35 48 / 70 20 20 60
YKM 34 45 32 44 / 40 10 10 30
HRI 37 49 35 47 / 80 20 20 60
ELN 30 41 28 39 / 20 20 10 30
RDM 29 49 30 42 / 50 10 20 50
LGD 37 51 35 47 / 80 70 40 90
GCD 34 51 34 46 / 50 20 30 70
DLS 39 48 37 45 / 70 30 20 60
PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...NONE.
OR...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PST SUNDAY FOR ORZ511.
DISCUSSION...71
AVIATION...77
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page