832
FXUS66 KPDT 051035
AFDPDT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
335 AM PDT SUN JUL 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH TUESDAY.
- ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN CENTRAL OREGON MOUNTAINS
TODAY, LOW THUNDERSTORM CHANCES (20 PERCENT OR LESS IN CENTRAL
OREGON MONDAY, SHIFTING TO EASTERN OREGON MOUNTAINS ON
TUESDAY.
- ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS REDEVELOPING FROM
TUESDAY ONWARD.
DISCUSSION
ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE AREA WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY ON
BY MONDAY. SEVERAL SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL
BRING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MAINLY TO THE MOUNTAINS
OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN OREGON.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TODAY WILL BE VERY LOW (<15 PERCENT) AND
CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL OREGON. THE BEST (ALBEIT
LOW) CHANCES LOOK TO BE ON MONDAY AND OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF
CENTRAL OREGON, WITH CHANCES 20 PERCENT OR LESS. BY TUESDAY THE
THREAT MOVES MORE INTO EASTERN OREGON.
BY LATER TUESDAY, AN UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE REGION, AND MOVE THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL
INCREASE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH/FRONT. BY THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY,
WE ARE BACK IN A MORE ZONAL FLOW. BY THE WEEKEND THE FLOW TURNS
SOUTHWEST AGAIN AS A LARGE RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE
FOUR CORNERS AREA. EXACTLY HOW STRONGLY THIS RIDGE BUILD IN WILL
HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON OUR TEMPERATURES AND GUIDANCE HAS NOT BEEN
CONSISTENT ON THE HANDLING OF THE RIDGE.
IN THE MEANTIME, TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH
TUESDAY BEING THE HOTTEST DAY, IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING
TROUGH/FRONT. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE INTO THE 90S
IN MOST LOCATIONS WITH HIGHS IN THE COLUMBIA BASIN/YAKIMA
VALLEY BEING CLOSE TO 100 DEGREES IF NOT EXCEEDING 100 DEGREES.
ON WEDNESDAY, THE TROUGH/COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
AND TEMPERATURES WILL DECREASE BY ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. AT RDM AND
BDN, AFTERNOON WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS ARE EXPECTED. ALL
OTHER SITES WILL BE 10 KTS OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER
A TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON TUESDAY, WITH
THE COLD FRONT MOVING TROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY, WINDS WILL
INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. THE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE
ZONAL BEHIND THE TROUGH/FRONTAL PASSAGE AND WINDS ARE GUSTY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. ZONAL FLOW IS EXPECTED AGAIN ON
THURSDAY, BEFORE A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS ON FRIDAY.
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CASCADE GAPS, SIMCOE HIGHLANDS,
KITTITAS VALLEY AN THE OREGON BASIN AND GORGE. WIND GUSTS LOOK
TO BE 25 TO 35 MPH, AND POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS 40 MPH. PROBABILITIES
OF WIND GUSTS OF >=25 ARE GREATER THAN 90 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES
OF WIND GUSTS >=39 MPH ARE 50 TO 80 PERCENT IN MANY OF THE
ABOVE LOCATIONS AND 90 PERCENT IN THE KITTITAS VALLEY.
WIND GUSTS LOOK TO BE LOWER ON THURSDAY BEFORE RAMPING UP AGAIN
ON FRIDAY. WIND GUSTS ON FRIDAY IN THESE SAME AREAS. WIND GUSTS
LOOK TO BE 25 TO 35 MPH. PROBABILITIES OF WIND GUSTS >=25 MPH
ARE GREATER THAN 90 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES OF WIND GUSTS >= 39
MPH ARE LOWER THOUGH, ONLY ABOUT 30 TO 60 PERCENT, ON AVERAGE.
THESE WINDS COUPLED WITH RH VALUES, MAINLY IN THE TEENS WILL
LEAD TO ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FROM
TUESDAY ONWARD. RH VALUES DO LOOK SLIGHTLY HIGHER ON WEDNESDAY,
BUT THE STRONGER WINDS COULD END UP NEGATING THAT. THURSDAY'S
LESSER WINDS COULD END UP HELPING THERE, BUT WILL HAVE TO SEE
HOW THE GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RH VALUES FIT TOGETHER AS THE WEEK
PROGRESSES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
PDT 87 55 90 59 / 0 0 0 0
ALW 88 59 91 63 / 0 0 0 0
PSC 90 56 94 60 / 0 0 0 0
YKM 91 58 95 61 / 0 0 0 0
HRI 90 56 93 61 / 0 0 0 0
ELN 87 55 92 59 / 0 0 0 0
RDM 88 54 89 53 / 0 0 10 0
LGD 88 55 89 57 / 0 0 0 0
GCD 92 55 90 55 / 0 0 20 20
DLS 92 60 96 63 / 0 0 0 0
PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...NONE.
OR...NONE.
DISCUSSION...80
AVIATION...77
FIRE WEATHER...80
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