444
FXUS66 KPDT 150931
AFDPDT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
231 AM PDT MON AUG 15 2022
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING A VERY THIN LAYER OF CIRRUS
CLOUDS OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE CWA. OTHERWISE, NOT A
CLOUD IN THE SKY ELSEWHERE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER
40S FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND MID 50S ELSEWHERE.
ANOTHER ROUND OF DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE HIGH 90S TO 100+ DEGREES. PRIMARY
CONCERN THROUGH THE FORECAST TIME PERIOD IS THE INCREASE IN
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL OR AND
ALONG THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS. GFS/ECMWF MODELS ALONG WITH THE SHORT
TERM MODELS HRRR/SREF, ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TIMING AND
LOCATION OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE MODELS SHOW THAT THE
HIGH WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BY MIDWEEK BRINGING WITH IT
INCREASING WARMER TEMPERATURES.
HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE MID 90S OVER MUCH OF THE REGION WITH A
FEW HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS IN THE UPPER 80S. TEMPERATURES WILL
INCREASE AGAIN BY TUESDAY AND MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE IN THE UPPER
90S WITH A FEW LOCATIONS REACHING 100+ DEGREES. WINDS WILL BE
GENERALLY LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE TYPICAL INCREASE IN THE
GAPS AND PASSES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AS THE PERIOD
PROGRESSES. BENNESE/90
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
THE BUILDING UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY PRODUCING HIGH
TEMPERATURES OF 100 TO 105 AROUND THE COLUMBIA BASIN AND 90S IN THE
MOUNTAINS. MODELS HAVE COME INTO A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT IN
HOLDING THE RIDGE IN PLACE OVER THE INTERIOR PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
NORTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH THE WEEKEND MEANING THE ABOVE AVERAGE HOT
TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THERE
WILL BE SOME MINOR RELIEF AS THE TEMPERATURE DRIVEN PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER THE CASCADES INTENSIFIES AND LEAKS OF COOLER WEST SIDE
AIR PUSHES THROUGH THE COLUMBIA GORGE AND CASCADE GAPS LATE IN THE
WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND. NONE-THE-LESS, SOME AREAS AROUND THE
LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN ARE LIKELY TO STILL SEE HIGHS AROUND OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE 100 DEGREES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CONTINUE TO THINK
THAT THE MAGNITUDE OF THIS HEAT WAVE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR IS
MODERATE AT THIS TIME AND THAT THERE WILL JUST BE THE NEED FOR
HEAT ADVISORIES EVENTUALLY.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE ADVECTION OF SOME MONSOON MOISTURE
NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN OREGON ON WEDNESDAY WITH SOME POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS CREEPING INTO CENTRAL OREGON THAT EVENING. THIS
CONVECTION WILL BE FURTHER AIDED ON THURSDAY BY A WEAK SHORTWAVE
PASSING OVER THE REGION. THE AFFECT OF THIS PASSING SHORTWAVE WILL
BE TO SHIFT THE MONSOON MOISTURE A LITTLE FURTHER EAST INTO IDAHO
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. DETERMINISTIC MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME FORM
OF A CLOSED LOW OR OPEN TROUGH SETTING UP OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
COAST LATE IN THE WEEKEND WHILE THE ENSEMBLE MODELS TENDING TO
SMOOTH THIS FEATURE OUT. TIMING AND LOCATION OF THIS TROUGH OR LOW
IS STILL IN QUESTION MEANING FORECASTER CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW FOR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AT THIS TIME. FOR NOW KEPT SUNDAY A THUNDERSTORM
FREE DAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THEN INTRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS ON
MONDAY AS THIS SEEMS THE TIME MOST MODEL AGREE THE TROUGH OR LOW
MOVES INLAND.
AVIATION...12Z TAFS
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT ALL TAF SITES
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY LESS THAN 10KTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
PDT 93 58 94 61 / 0 0 0 0
ALW 96 61 97 64 / 0 0 0 0
PSC 97 62 98 65 / 0 0 0 0
YKM 95 58 96 60 / 0 0 0 0
HRI 97 61 99 64 / 0 0 0 0
ELN 95 60 95 61 / 0 0 0 0
RDM 91 53 94 57 / 0 0 0 0
LGD 92 57 95 59 / 0 0 0 0
GCD 96 56 99 60 / 0 0 0 0
DLS 95 63 98 67 / 0 0 0 0
PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
SHORT TERM...90
LONG TERM....91
AVIATION...91
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