616
FXUS66 KPDT 191108
AFDPDT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
408 AM PDT THU MAR 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
1. MOUNTAIN RAIN WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO
SNOW
2. ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGE TEMPERATURES REMAIN THROUGH FRIDAY
3. A SYSTEM WILL BRING TEMPERATURES BACK TO SEASONAL AVERAGE SATURDAY
DISCUSSION
CURRENT RADAR SHOWS A FEW RETURNS OVER THE WA CASCADES AS THE
REMNANTS OF THE ATMOSPHERIC RIVER REMAIN OVER THE AREA. CURRENT
GROUND OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT THE LAST HOUR THESE RETURNS HAVE ONLY
PUT DOWN BETWEEN 0.01-0.02 INCHES OF RAIN. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE OVER THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH FRIDAY WITH RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
NEARING 0.4-0.8 INCHES THROUGH 5 AM FRIDAY (70-80% CONFIDENCE).
SATURDAY SNOW LEVELS WILL BEGIN TO DROP BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES
BACK TO THE MOUNTAINS WITH LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW.
MODELS SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STILL OVER THE REGION. THIS IS WHAT
IS BRINGING THE ABOVE AVERAGE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES. IN HOUSE
COMPARISONS FOR TEMPERATURES SHOWS THAT TEMPERATURES BOTH THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY ARE ANYWHERE BETWEEN 20-25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH EVEN
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS SEEING ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. MODELS SHOW
THE RIDGE TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY AHEAD OF A
PATTERN CHANGE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGE
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN THE LOW TO MID 70S
ACROSS THE REGION WITH 90-100% OF THE NBM RAW ENSEMBLES IN
AGREEMENT. FRIDAY TEMPERATURES WILL DROP ONLY 1-2 DEGREES WITH
TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN THE LOW TO MID 70S FOR MUCH OF THE REGION
WITH AGAIN 90-100% OF THE RAW ENSEMBLES IN AGREEMENT.
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWEEPING INTO THE REGION WITH MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW.
NBM SHOWS SNOW LEVELS TO BEGIN TO DECREASE AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
ACROSS AND TEMPERATURES WILL DECREASE TO NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGE.
MOUNTAIN PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH VERY LIGHT
(0.01-0.02 INCHES) SNOW ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED (80-90%
CONFIDENCE)LONG THE CRESTS. TEMPERATURES WILL DECREASE BY NEARLY 20
DEGREES SATURDAY WITH LOCALIZED HIGHS IN THE LOW 60S IN THE BASIN
AND MID TO UPPER 50S ELSEWHERE (60-80% CONFIDENCE). 90
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY ACROSS ALL SITES AND WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE PERIOD. BREEZY SUSTAINED WIND AROUND 12-14 KTS ARE
EXPECTED FOR KPSC/KDLS/KRDM/KBDN THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS OF
20-25KTS. ELSEWHERE, WINDS WILL BE AT OR BELOW 10KTS. 90
FIRE WEATHER
AN SPS IS OUT FOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS FOR OCHOCO-JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS AND CENTRAL OR. A
STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE HAS LEAD TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS VERY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
(80-90% CONFIDENCE)FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL OR AND THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS. ADDITIONALLY, DIURNAL WINDS HAVE THE CAPABILITIES OF
REACHING 20 TO 30 MPH GUSTS (50-70% CONFIDENCE). THE COMBINATION
OF DRY CONDITIONS AND ELEVATED WINDS CAN LEAD TO RAPID FIRE
SPREAD. 90
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
PDT 75 50 75 45 / 0 10 0 30
ALW 73 55 74 48 / 10 10 10 50
PSC 75 53 75 48 / 10 10 0 20
YKM 73 49 71 39 / 10 20 20 10
HRI 76 51 76 48 / 0 10 0 20
ELN 64 45 62 37 / 20 40 40 10
RDM 78 44 76 41 / 0 0 0 10
LGD 76 48 77 45 / 0 0 0 40
GCD 78 47 78 45 / 0 0 0 10
DLS 74 51 69 45 / 10 20 20 30
PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...NONE.
OR...NONE.
DISCUSSION...90
AVIATION...90
FIRE WEATHER...90
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