169
FXUS66 KPDT 181013
AFDPDT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
313 AM PDT SUN OCT 18 2026
KEY MESSAGES
1. DRY AND COOLER TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND
2. PATTERN SHIFT AT THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK WILL BRING SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH MIDWEEK
DISCUSSION
CURRENT NIGHTTIME SATELLITE IS SHOWING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER THE
REGION WITH A FEW AREAS OF PATCHY FOG FORMING IN CENTRAL AND NORTH
CENTRAL OR. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE COLD
PRONE MOUNTAIN RIDGES AS WELL AS AREAS AROUND SENECA WHERE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW 30 DEGREES.
HI-RES MODELS SHOW A WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW HAS SETTLED OVER THE REGION
AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES EAST AND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES
DOWN THE COAST. THIS FLOW REGIME WILL KEEP THE REGION UNDER DRY
CONDITIONS WITH NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
IN HOUSE CALCULATIONS SHOW TEMPERATURES TO BE 1-5 DEGREES ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMAL. NBM SHOWS TEMPERATURES TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S
FOR MUCH OF THE REGION WITH A FEW AREAS ALONG THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS
SEEING LOW 70S THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
BY MONDAY MODELS SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO BE SHIFTING SOUTH OFF
THE COAST OF OREGON AND BRINGING A SHARPER SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE
REGION. MODELS ARE IN FIRM AGREEMENT THAT A CLOSED LOW WILL FORM
AND TRAVERSE TOWARDS THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA AND STRETCH AS FAR
NORTH AS OREGON. CLUSTERS DIFFER SLIGHTLY IN THE TRACK AND THE
AMPLITUDE OF THE LOW, BUT ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH IT SHIFTING SOUTH AND
UNDERCUTTING THE REGION BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE VARIANCE IN
THE AMPLITUDE WILL DETERMINE THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL EXPECTED AS
MODELS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR WRAP AROUND MOISTURE MAKING ITS WAY
INTO THE REGION FROM THE EAST. NBM RAW ENSEMBLES SHOW A 20-40%
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS WEDNESDAY. BY
THURSDAY, NBM RAW ENSEMBLES SHOW A 30-60% CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
BECOMING WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE REGION.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS WILL
BE GENERALLY DIURNALLY/TERRAIN DRIVEN AND BELOW 10 KTS. CIGS WILL
VARY FROM FEW250-BKN250 THROUGH THE PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
PDT 64 36 62 37 / 0 0 0 0
ALW 65 42 62 41 / 0 0 0 0
PSC 66 36 64 35 / 0 0 0 0
YKM 64 39 63 38 / 0 0 0 0
HRI 65 37 63 36 / 0 0 0 0
ELN 61 35 60 33 / 0 0 0 0
RDM 63 29 59 28 / 0 0 0 0
LGD 68 39 68 36 / 0 0 0 0
GCD 72 38 70 36 / 0 0 0 0
DLS 68 43 66 41 / 0 0 0 0
PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...NONE.
OR...NONE.
DISCUSSION...90
AVIATION...90
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