353
FXUS66 KPDT 222318
AFDPDT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
418 PM PDT WED JUL 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
1. CONTINUED DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS
*HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT*
2. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
*RED FLAG WARNING IN AFFECT FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING*
3. HOT, DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS RETURN FRIDAY & SATURDAY
DISCUSSION
CURRENT SATELLITE SHOWS SOME CUMULUS BEGINNING TO POP UP OVER
CENTRAL OR. SO FAR NO THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MADE THEIR WAY INTO THE
REGION AS OF YET. ABUNDANT LIGHTNING IS STILL EXPECTED THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND THE RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 11 PM
TONIGHT. OUTFLOW WINDS OF 25-45 MPH WITH SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY
PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.
EVEN WITH THE LINGERING SMOKE, TEMPERATURES AROUND THE REGION HAVE
BEEN IN THE UPPER 90S WITH LITTLE OVERNIGHT RECOVERY TEMPERATURES.
TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE UPPER 90S WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO 70S. DUE TO THE HIGH DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES AND MODERATE OVERNIGHT LOW, A HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THE GORGE, COLUMBIA RIVER BASIN OF OR AND WA, THE
FOOTHILLS OF THE BLUES OF OR & WA AS WELL AS THE KITTITAS AND YAKIMA
VALLEY THROUGH 9 PM THURSDAY. CONFIDENCE IN THE TEMPERATURES IS HIGH
(80-90%)
WE ARE ALREADY BEGINNING TO SEE CUMULUS WORK ITS WAY INTO THE REGION
IN CENTRAL OR. MODELS ARE STILL ON TRACK SHOWING MID LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE INTO THE REGION BRINGING WITH IT INSTABILITY
AND THE INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORMS. ISOLATED TO SQUATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS. ON THE GROUND IMET IN THE REGION RELEASED A BALLOON AS WAS
ABLE TO GET US SOME LOCAL DATA. THE SOUNDING SHOWS CAPE VALUES IN
THE 800-900 J/KM RANGE WITH DCAPE VALUES IN THE 1200 J/KG RANGE.
LAPSE RATES OF 9 C/KM AND PWATS AROUND 1 INCH. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
FOR THE SAME AREA SHOW VERY SIMILAR NUMBERS AS WELL AS LIS OF -3.
THIS SHOWS THAT THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH WHAT IS
CURRENTLY HAPPENING ON THE GROUND. EXPECT THESE STORMS TO PRODUCE
SMALL HAIL, GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS OF 25-45 MPH AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAIN. THURSDAY MODELS SHOW THE THUNDERSTORMS TO BE A BIT MORE
BROAD IN SPREAD. THE CASCADES COULD SEE SOME STRAY STORMS THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. THE HIGHEST SIGNAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS ALONG THE
FOOTHILLS OF THE BLUES AND THROUGH WALLOWA COUNTY. A RED FLAG
WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING THROUGH THOSE AREAS
FOR THURSDAY BEGINNING AFTER 1200.
MODELS SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE COAST OF THE PACNW. THE LOW
WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE CASCADES BY FRIDAY AND WILL BRING ELEVATED
WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. NBM RAW ENSEMBLES SHOWS THERE TO BE 80-90%
PROBABILITIES OF SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20-25 MPH THROUGH THE
GORGE,FOOTHILLS OF THE SOUTHERN BLUES, NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL
OR, YAKIMA AND KITTITAS VALLEYS. SATURDAY RAW ENSEMBLES SHOW THE
SAME PROBABILITIES FOR THE SAME LOCATIONS BUT WINDS ARE 25-35 MPH
SUSTAINED. THIS COUPLED WITH THE VERY DRY CONDITIONS ON THE GROUND
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE ELEVATED.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
THUNDERSTORMS ARE IMPACTING BDN AND RDM THAT ARE EXPECTED TO
LAST THROUGH 01Z. AFTERWARDS, LINGERING SHOWERS PERSIST IN THE
AREA WITH 10-25 PERCENT CHANCES PERSISTING A FEW HOURS AFTER.
OTHERWISE, HAZE AND SMOKE CONTINUE TO IMPACT TAF SITES IN THE
COLUMBIA BASIN DOWN TO CENTRAL OREGON BRINGING MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24-HOURS. SMOKE WILL SOMEWHAT IMPROVE
THROUGH LATE THURSDAY, BUT WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER TO BRING
VISIBILITIES DOWN.
FIRE WEATHER
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL OR
AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE DAY TODAY WITH A RED FLAG
WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH 11 PM FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING. ANOTHER
ROUND OF ABUNDANT LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED ALONG THE BLUES AND
THROUGH THE WALLOWA MOUNTAINS THURSDAY AND ANOTHER RED FLAG
WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THOSE AREAS.
FRIDAY WILL SEE INCREASED WINDS ACROSS THE REGION WITH CRITICAL
RHS. THIS WILL LEAD TO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR HOT, DRY AND
WINDS BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
PDT 67 96 62 97 / 0 10 0 0
ALW 72 99 69 99 / 0 10 0 0
PSC 70 101 66 100 / 0 0 0 0
YKM 73 100 64 99 / 10 10 0 0
HRI 71 99 66 99 / 0 0 0 0
ELN 69 95 61 94 / 10 10 0 0
RDM 58 93 55 95 / 50 0 0 0
LGD 66 100 62 100 / 0 40 10 0
GCD 62 99 59 100 / 10 20 0 0
DLS 70 92 65 97 / 10 10 0 0
PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR WAZ024-027>029.
AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL 9 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR WAZ028>030.
OR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR ORZ041-044-507.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR ORZ694-
695-697>699.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ORZ698-700-
705.
DISCUSSION...90
AVIATION...95
FIRE WEATHER...90
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page