843
FXUS66 KPDT 082232
AFDPDT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
332 PM PDT THU OCT 8 2026
.UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.
KEY MESSAGES
- FREEZE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING.
- BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOP FRIDAY.
- PATCHY BLOWING DUST POSSIBLE FRIDAY ACROSS THE COLUMBIA BASIN.
DISCUSSION
A FREEZE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR GRANDE RONDE VALLEY, CENTRAL
OREGON, AND WALLOWA VALLEY FOR TOMORROW NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING.
BEGINNING TOMORROW, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS HIGHLY LIKELY TO
MOVE INTO THE PACNW AREA FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA (OVER 90%
CHANCE). WITH IT, THE THREAT OF FREEZING MORNING TEMPERATURES,
GUSTY WINDS, AND SOME RAINFALL ARE PRIMARY CONCERNS. WHILE
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH REGARDING THE TROUGH ARRIVAL AND PLACEMENT,
ITS STRENGTH IS STILL A SUBJECT OF SOME UNCERTAINTY IN ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE, PARTICULARLY AFTER SATURDAY. THE EXTRA-TROPICAL
TRANSITION OF HURRICANE RACHEL PRESENTS SOME VARIABILITY THAT
COULD AFFECT TROUGH DEPTH AND IMPACTS FOR NEXT WEEK.
AS INDICATED WITH THE FREEZE WATCH, THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE
OF BELOW-FREEZING TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. NBM
PROBABILITIES HIGHLIGHT HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS AS BEING AT RISK
STARTING FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING (50-75%), WITH LOWER
ELEVATION AREAS BECOMING PROGRESSIVELY MORE LIKELY TO FREEZE AS
THE WEEKEND PROGRESSES INTO MONDAY MORNING. WHILE THE CURRENT
FREEZE WATCH IS LIMITED TO PORTIONS OF CROOK, DESCHUTES,
JEFFERSON, UNION, AND WALLOWA COUNTIES, ADDITIONAL PRODUCTS
OUTSIDE OF THESE COUNTIES CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS CONDITIONS
PROGRESS, ESPECIALLY SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE STILL EXISTS FOR THE POTENTIAL OF GUSTY
WINDS, WITH THE MOST WIDESPREAD GUSTS OCCURRING TOMORROW AND
BECOMING MORE LOCALIZED TO THE COLUMBIA GORGE AND SOUTHERN
COLUMBIA BASIN REGIONS THROUGHOUT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. GUSTS IN
THIS REGION ARE LIKELY TO EXCEED 30 MPH (GREATER THAN 75%
CHANCE) BUT UNLIKELY TO SURPASS 45 MPH (LESS THAN 20% CHANCE).
ISOLATED PATCHY DUST HAS BEEN INCLUDED IN OUR FORECAST TO
REFLECT THESE WINDS, ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS NOT EXPECTED TO
RECEIVE RAINFALL.
RAIN WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED TO NE OREGON/SE WASHINGTON PER
RECENT GUIDANCE (50-75%) CHANCE OF AT LEAST 0.01 INCHES WITHIN
24 HOURS). HOWEVER ANY PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS WILL MOSTLY BE
LIMITED TO BELOW WETTING-RAIN THRESHOLDS (AT MOST 50% OF
EXCEEDING 0.1 INCHES IN 24 HOURS IN ISOLATED REGIONS). PRIMARY
TIMING FOR RAINFALL IS CURRENTLY AS EARLY AS TOMORROW MORNING
FOR THE WASHINGTON CASCADES (TOMORROW AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR
SURROUNDING AREAS) INTO SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
WITH THE POST-TROPICAL TRANSITION OF RACHEL, THERE IS A
SIGNIFICANT POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL RAIN MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY (AROUND 20- 40% CHANCE), HOWEVER VARIABILITY OF THIS
IS STILL VERY HIGH. ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS REMAIN SPLIT REGARDING
WHETHER AN EMBEDDED UPPER- LEVEL LOW WILL EMERGE AND SHIFT
TOWARDS CALIFORNIA/NEVADA OR WHETHER IT WILL STAY AS AN OPEN
TROUGH. IN CLUSTER SCENARIOS WITH A DEEP UPPER LOW, ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE PREDICTS LOWER RAINFALL TOTALS COMPARED TO SOLUTIONS
WITH A MORE NORTHERLY PLACED LOW OR TROUGH. AS SUCH, RAINFALL
ODDS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE AS GUIDANCE
BECOMES CLEARER WITH THE TROUGH'S ARRIVAL.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD FOR ALL SITES.
INCREASING WINDS AND GUSTY CONDITIONS STARTING AT 18Z FOR KDLS, KPDT,
KRDM, KALW, KPSC AND KRDM, WITH LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS FOR KPDT,
KALW, AND KPSC.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
PDT 49 71 36 58 / 0 10 10 0
ALW 56 72 41 59 / 0 20 30 0
PSC 48 75 39 63 / 0 10 0 0
YKM 50 70 37 61 / 0 0 0 10
HRI 49 73 39 62 / 0 10 0 0
ELN 48 63 33 55 / 0 10 0 30
RDM 40 71 28 54 / 0 0 10 0
LGD 45 73 35 55 / 0 10 30 0
GCD 46 77 36 56 / 0 0 20 0
DLS 53 70 42 63 / 0 10 0 0
PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...NONE.
OR...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
FOR ORZ049-050-511.
DISCUSSION...21/86
AVIATION...07/75
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