805  
FXUS66 KPDT 062041  
AFDPDT  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR  
141 PM PDT SUN JUL 6 2025  
   
SHORT TERM...THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
 
 
***FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR TUESDAY 2 PM THROUGH  
11PM FOR DRY THUNDERSTORMS.***  
 
THE START OF THE SHORT TERM WILL BE CHARACTERIZED  
BY DRY AND HOT CONDITIONS. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH HAS PARKED OVER THE  
REGION BRINGING WITH IT HOT DRY AIR CAUSING TEMPERATURES THROUGH  
TUESDAY TO BEGIN TO REACH CRITICAL. MODELS SHOW DAYTIME HIGHS  
TODAY TO BE ABOVE 85 DEGREES ACROSS THE BASIN, CENTRAL & NORTH  
CENTRAL OR, THE GORGE, KITTITAS AND YAKIMA VALLEYS AS WELL AS THE  
OTHER LOW LYING BASINS AND VALLEYS ACROSS THE REGION. ENSEMBLES  
ARE SHOWING 90-100% PROBABILITIES (PROBS) THESE TEMPERATURES WILL  
COME TO FRUITION. MONDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES  
OVERHEAD, MODELS SHOW TEMPERATURES TO INCREASE TO ABOVE 90 DEGREES  
IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS WITH OVER 90% PROBABILITIES.  
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL NOT PROVIDE ENOUGH OF A REPRIEVE AS  
THEY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S IN CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL  
AND IN THE LOW 60S THROUGH THE GORGE, VALLEYS AND BASINS. MODELS  
SHOW TUESDAY TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES  
REACHING BETWEEN 100-105 THROUGH THE BASIN, ADJACENT VALLEYS,  
GORGE AND THE FOOTHILLS OF THE NORTHERN BLUES (80-90% PROBS) WITH  
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREAS BELOW 4500 FEET IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S  
(80-100% PROBS). ABOVE THAT, TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW 80S  
ALONG THE BLUES AND 70S ALONG THE CASCADES (80-90% PROBS).  
 
MODELS ARE IN FIRM AGREEMENT WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DRY COLD FRONT  
MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE PACNW TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THE  
DISTURBANCE, MODELS ALSO SHOW THERE TO BE AN INCREASE IN  
INSTABILITY AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE. CAMS MODEL DERIVED SOUNDINGS  
AS WELL AS THE NBM AND GFS ARE ALL SHOWING SURFACE BASED CAPE  
VALUES RANGING BETWEEN 300-500 J/KG ALONG THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS  
AND BETWEEN 400-700 ALONG THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF DESCHUTES  
COUNTY. THIS COUPLED WITH THE MID- LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 9-5-10.2  
C/KM AND LIS OF -4, WE CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED  
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THESE AREAS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ENSEMBLES SHOW  
A 20-25% PROBABILITY OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING AFTER 2  
PM TUESDAY. WITH THE DRY AIR UNDERNEATH THESE STORMS, THERE IS  
HIGH PROBABILITIES THESE STORMS WILL PRODUCE DRY LIGHTNING.  
THEREFORE, A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR TUESDAY 2 PM  
THROUGH 11 PM.  
 
AS THE DRY COLD FRONT PASSES, SURFACE MODELS ARE SHOWING A  
TIGHTENING OF THE SURFACE GRADIENTS ALONG THE CASCADES. THIS WILL  
LEAD TO BREEZY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE CASCADE GAPS ON WEDNESDAY  
WITH THE GORGE SEEING SUSTAINED WINDS OF NEAR 30 MPH AND GUSTS  
NEARING 40-45 MPH WITH 60-80% PROBABILITIES. THIS WILL BE ANOTHER  
DAY OF CONCERN AS THE DAYTIME RHS WILL BARELY RECOVER FROM THE  
DAYS PRIOR.  
 
   
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
 
 
MODELS SHOW THERE TO BE SOME LINGERING INSTABILITY AND MID-LEVEL  
MOISTURE WEDNESDAY. MODEL DERIVED SOUNDING SHOW CAPE VALUES  
RANGING BETWEEN 100-150 J/KG, MID-LEVEL MOISTURE OF 8-9 C/KM AND  
LIS OF -1. THESE WILL BE WEAKER STORMS AND WILL LIKELY NEED A BIT  
OF OROGRAPHIC LIFT TO INITIATE. WITH THAT SAID, WE CANNOT RULE OUT  
THE POSSIBILITY OF LIGHTNING AND ENSEMBLES DO SO AROUND 20%  
PROBABILITIES.  
 
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL ALSO BE THE 'COOLER' DAYS DURING THE  
PERIOD WITH ENSEMBLES SHOWING TEMPERATURES DIPPING NEARLY 10  
DEGREES FROM THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE. NBM SHOWS TEMPERATURES TO BE  
IN THE LOW TO MID 90S IN THE BASIN AND FOOTHILLS OF THE BLUES, MID  
TO UPPER 80S IN CENTRAL/NORTH CENTRAL OR AND LOW 80S IN THE GORGE  
WITH 80-90% PROBABILITIES. THURSDAY WILL ANOTHER 5 DEGREES COOLER  
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION WITH 80-90% PROBABILITIES OF THE  
MAJORITY OF THE REGION SEEING MID TO UPPER 80S. AFTER THURSDAY, A  
WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION AGAIN BRING HOT  
AND DRY CONDITIONS BACK TO THE REGION.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST  
PERIOD. MOSTLY SUNNY WITH HIGH CLOUDS SCATTERED ACROSS SOME OF THE  
TAF SITES. WINDS ARE MAINLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE ACROSS THE REGION  
WITH ONLY DLS SEEING WINDS NEARING 10KTS. BENNESE/90  
 

 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR DRY  
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY BETWEEN 2 PM AND 11 PM. AN INCOMING DRY COLD  
FRONT WILL BRING IN INCREASING INSTABILITY OVER THE SOUTHERN AND  
EASTERN REGION OF THE AREAS ELEVATING THE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.  
ALSO, WITH THE DRY COLD FRONT, AN INCREASE IN WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY  
THE PASSAGE AND WITH THE ALREADY DRY CONDITIONS AND POOR DAYTIME  
RHS, WEDNESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER DAY TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
PDT 59 98 64 101 / 0 0 0 0  
ALW 63 96 69 100 / 0 0 0 0  
PSC 58 98 64 104 / 0 0 0 0  
YKM 61 96 64 101 / 0 0 0 0  
HRI 59 99 64 104 / 0 0 0 0  
ELN 59 95 64 96 / 0 0 0 0  
RDM 49 96 55 96 / 0 0 0 10  
LGD 55 93 60 97 / 0 0 0 0  
GCD 55 95 60 99 / 0 0 0 20  
DLS 63 98 66 96 / 0 0 0 0  
 

 
   
PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
OR...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY  
EVENING FOR ORZ700-705.  
 
WA...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...90  
LONG TERM....90  
AVIATION...90  
 
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