868
FXUS66 KPDT 051112
AFDPDT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
312 AM PST THU FEB 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY AND FOGGY CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY/SATURDAY
- PATTERN CHANGE SATURDAY WILL BRING IN HIGH MOUNTAIN SNOW AND
LOW ELEVATION RAIN.
DISCUSSION
CURRENT SATELLITE SHOWS THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION UNDER A
STRATUS DECK WITH HIGH CLOUDS MOVING OVERHEAD FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. GROUND OBSERVATIONS SHOW THE DECK TO BE RELATIVELY
LOW BETWEEN 300-1500 FEET ACROSS MOST PLACES. WEBCAMS AS WELL AS
GROUND OBSERVATIONS SHOWING OUR FOG PRONE AREAS ALONG THE I84
CORRIDOR OF THE BLUES AND ALONG THE 97 FROM REDMOND NORTH TO
HAVE AREAS OF FOG WITH ISOLATED LOCATIONS WITH VIS AS LOW AS 1/4
MILE. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS OUT FOR NORTH CENTRAL OR THROUGH
10 AM DUE TO THIS AND AND SPS IS OUT UNTIL 9 AM FOR THE FOG
ACROSS THE BLUES.
MODELS SHOW THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CONTINUE TO BE PARKED OVER
THE REGION AND PERSISTING THROUGH THE EARLY WEEKEND AHEAD OF
ANOTHER SYSTEM. WITH THE RIDGE OVERHEAD, THE SAME HEADLINES WILL
REMAIN, FOG AND LOW STRATUS. HREF RAW ENSEMBLES SHOW MUCH OF
THE REGION TO SEE A 40-60% PROBABILITY OF 1/2 MILE OR LESS
FORMING OVER THE BASIN AND ALONG THE FOOTHILLS OF THE BLUES
THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE TAPERING OFF AFTER NOON. WITH THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PUSHING INWARD, HREF RAW ENSEMBLES SHOW
THAT FOG FORMATION ON FRIDAY WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE BASIN WITH AGAIN, 40-60% PROBABILITIES OF 1/2
MILE OR LESS OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE LATE MORNING PERIOD.
MODELS SHOW THAT BY SATURDAY THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL
PUSH INTO THE PACNW ERODING THE RIDGE AND PUSHING IT TO THE
EAST. CLUSTERS SHOW THE MAIN ARE OF DIVERGENCE IN THE MODELS TO
BE WITH THE TIMING OF THE INCOMING SYSTEM. WITH THAT SAID, ALL
MODELS (EURO, GFS, NBM ETC..) ALL HAVE PRECIPITATION COMING IN
SATURDAY AT SOME POINT. THE NBM SHOWS THAT SNOW LEVELS WILL
STEADILY BEGIN TO DECREASE BRINGING SNOW LEVELS TO BELOW 5000
FEET SUNDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN ALONG THE CASCADES AS RAIN
SATURDAY WITH 60-80% OF THE NBM RAW ENSEMBLES SHOWING THE WA
CASCADES TO SEE BETWEEN 0.10-0.25 INCHES OF RAIN. THE SYSTEM
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST BRINGING 45-70% PROBABILITIES OF LOW
ELEVATION RANGE BETWEEN 0.05-0.10 INCHES OF RAIN BY SUNDAY AND
WITH SNOW LEVELS LOWERING TO NEAR 4000 FEET SUNDAY, 0.50-1 INCH
OF SNOW FOR THE CASCADES (60-80%) AND 40-60% FOR THE BLUES.
BY MONDAY, MODELS SHOW THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO BE
MOSTLY CENTERED OVER THE REGION WITH INCREASED CHANCES OF
CONTINUED LIGHT HIGH MOUNTAIN SNOW AND LOW ELEVATION LIGHT
RAIN. 90
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
FOG AND LOW STRATUS WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. ALL TAF SITES ARE CURRENTLY SEEING SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS DUE TO CIGS OF 300-1500 FEET. THIS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN THE CASE THROUGH THE LATE MORNING. CONFIDENCE IN THE LOW
CIGS PERSISTING IS MODERATE TO HIGH (60-80%). MODELS SHOW TAF
SITES EXCEPT PDT/ALW SEEING VFR CONDITIONS RETURN BRIEFLY AFTER
17Z BEFORE THE STRATUS DECK MOVES BACK IN DURING THE EVENING.
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT, BELOW 6KTS AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. 90
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
PDT 33 51 35 56 / 0 0 0 10
ALW 36 50 38 55 / 0 0 0 10
PSC 34 49 35 54 / 0 0 0 10
YKM 33 49 34 49 / 0 0 0 10
HRI 34 50 34 53 / 0 0 0 10
ELN 32 47 33 44 / 0 0 0 30
RDM 27 59 30 57 / 0 0 0 0
LGD 36 58 35 57 / 0 0 0 10
GCD 33 58 34 58 / 0 0 0 0
DLS 37 53 38 53 / 0 0 0 30
PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...NONE.
OR...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR ORZ506-509.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR ORZ510.
DISCUSSION...90
AVIATION...90
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