327
FXUS66 KPDT 291714
AFDPDT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1014 AM PDT WED JUL 29 2026
.UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.
KEY MESSAGES
1. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK
2. SLIGHT CHANCES OF DRY THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
3. DIURNALLY BREEZY WINDS AND LOW RHS
DISCUSSION
CURRENT SATELLITE SHOWS CLEAR SKIES OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING.
SMOKE AND HAZE WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION AS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
CONTINUES TO MOVE THE SMOKE TO THE NORTHEAST. MUCH OF THE SMOKE IS
ALOFT BUT CANNOT RULE OUT LIGHT SURFACE SMOKE FIRST THING IN THE
MORNING ACROSS THE BASIN AND THE FOOTHILLS OF THE NORTHERN BLUES.
MODELS SHOW THE REGION TO BE INFLUENCED BY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF
THE COAST THAT IS BRINGING IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. LOOKING AT THE
SATELLITE IMAGERY OF LOW TO HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE, MUCH OF THE
MOISTURE IS ALOFT WITH DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE. MODELS SHOW THE FLOW
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH A FEW ROUNDS OF SHORTWAVES MAKING
THEIR WAY ACROSS THE AREA. THESE DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE WEEK.
MODELS SHOW THE FIRST ROUND OF SHORTWAVES TO MAKE THEIR WAY ACROSS
THE REGION TODAY BRINGING WITH IT LOW CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS OF THE COUNTY WARNING
AREA. LOOKING AND THE ECMWF LIGHTNING DENSITY, IT SHOWS MUCH OF THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE REGION COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. FORECAST SOUNDING FROM THE NAM SHOWS THERE TO BE
ENOUGH MUCAPE IN THE REGION TO INITIATE A STORM OR TWO WITH VALUES
ABOVE 500 J/KG, LAPSE RATES OF 8.6 C/KM AND HIGHER, LI OF -2 AND
BULK SHEAR OF 33 KTS. THESE CONDITIONS COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. PWATS ARE ALSO BELOW 1 INCH SO THESE STORMS WILL
LIKELY BE DRY IN NATURE. WHILE THE CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORMS IS
LOW (10-15%), CONFIDENCE IN THE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION IS
HIGH. INSTABILITY OVER THE FIRE ON THE GROUND COULD CAUSE FOR SOME
ACTIVE FIRE BEHAVIOR IN THE AFTERNOON.
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK THE PATTERN WILL STAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW
AND DRY CONDITIONS. RHS WILL RECOVER SOMEWHAT AS THE TEMPERATURES
REMAIN COOL, BUT SOME AREAS WILL STILL REMAIN NEAR CRITICAL.
DIURNALLY DRIVEN BREEZY WINDS WILL ALSO PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK
UNTIL THE PATTERN SHIFTS SLIGHTLY ON SATURDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY ACROSS ALL SITES, WHICH WILL STAY THE
COURSE THROUGH THE PERIOD. BREEZY AFTERNOON WINDS EXPECTED FOR
KDLS/KRDM/KBDN WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10-15KTS AND GUSTS
BETWEEN 20-25KTS. ELSEWHERE, WINDS WILL STAY 10KTS OR LESS. 75
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
PDT 86 55 87 54 / 0 0 0 0
ALW 88 61 89 59 / 0 0 0 0
PSC 90 58 91 55 / 0 0 0 0
YKM 89 57 90 57 / 0 0 0 0
HRI 89 59 90 56 / 0 0 0 0
ELN 85 54 85 55 / 0 0 0 0
RDM 88 47 87 46 / 0 0 0 0
LGD 91 55 91 54 / 0 0 0 0
GCD 94 54 93 53 / 0 0 0 0
DLS 87 59 85 57 / 0 0 0 0
PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...NONE.
OR...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL NOON PDT TODAY FOR ORZ041-044-049-050-
502-503-505>511.
DISCUSSION...90
AVIATION...75
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