831
FXUS66 KPDT 162253
AFDPDT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
253 PM PST MON FEB 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SIGNIFICANT MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL THROUGH WEDNESDAY
*WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ACTIVE*
- ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL THURSDAY ONWARD, LOWLAND POTENTIAL
DISCUSSION
CURRENT RADAR AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS BANDS OF MOISTURE
EXTENDING SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA UNDER OVERCAST
SKIES. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT PASSING
THROUGH OUR AREA TODAY, WHICH IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH THAT IS DROPPING ALONG THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST AND
BECOMING A CLOSED LOW LATER THIS AFTERNOON OFF THE WASHINGTON/OREGON
COASTS. THIS FEATURE WILL SLOWLY OPEN BACK UP INTO A TROUGH LATE
TUESDAY BEFORE SLIDING THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY.
THIS SLOW MOVING LOW/TROUGH WILL ADVECT COLD AIR INTO THE REGION,
ALLOWING HIGH TEMPERATURES TO REACH INTO THE UPPER-30S TO MID-40S
ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE COLUMBIA BASIN AND CENTRAL OREGON
WITH LOW TEMPERATURES DIPPING INTO THE UPPER-TEENS TO MID-20S
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE TROUGH WILL ALSO TAP INTO MOISTURE ON ITS
DECENT ALONG THE COAST, ALLOWING FOR PERSISTENT MOUNTAIN
SNOWFALL TO OCCUR THROUGH WEDNESDAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
OREGON CASCADES AND THE NORTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS. THUS, WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE ACTIVE ACROSS BOTH REGIONS UNTIL 11 PM
TUESDAY FOR THE EAST SLOPES OF THE OREGON CASCADES AND UNTIL 3
PM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE NORTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS AS 6-10 INCHES
OF SNOWFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE. CONFIDENCE IN THESE SNOW AMOUNTS
IS HIGH AS THE NBM ADVERTISES AN 85- 95% CHANCE OVER THE OREGON
CASCADES AND AN 75-85% CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS
OF RECEIVING 6 INCHES OF SNOWFALL OR MORE THROUGH 10 AM
WEDNESDAY.
A REINFORCING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FOLLOWS CLOSELY BEHIND THE EARLIER
WEEK SYSTEM, EXHIBITING A SIMILAR PATH ALONG THE BRITISH COLUMBIA
COAST WEDNESDAY BEFORE OPENING UP AND MOVING ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL KEEP COLD AIR OVER THE REGION AND
ALLOW SNOW LEVELS TO DROP TO NEAR THE COLUMBIA BASIN FLOOR WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY MORNINGS. ALL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUGGEST UP TO AN INCH OF
SNOWFALL THROUGH THE NORTHERN BLUE MOUNTAIN FOOTHILLS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION, 51% OF MEMBERS ADVERTISE UP TO AN
INCH ACROSS THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN INCLUDING THE TRI-CITIES,
HERMISTON, AND YAKIMA AREAS. HOWEVER, AMOUNTS NEAR AN INCH ARE MORE
OPTIMISTIC AS THE NBM HIGHLIGHTS A 35-60% CHANCE OF MEASURABLE
SNOWFALL (0.01" OR GREATER) ALONG THE NORTHERN BLUE MOUNTAIN
FOOTHILLS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNING AND LESS THAN A 10%
CHANCE WEDNESDAY AND A 10-20% CHANCE FOR TRI-CITIES, HERMISTON,
AND YAKIMA ON THURSDAY MORNING. THERE IS ALSO A 40-60% CHANCE OF
THURSDAY MORNING SNOWFALL ACROSS CENTRAL OREGON
(BEND/REDMOND/MADRAS) PER THE NBM, BUT LREF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
ARE MORE OPTIMISTIC WITH A 70-80% CHANCE. THESE DISCREPANCIES
ACROSS MODEL SUITES POINT TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN EXPECTED SNOW
AMOUNTS ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS LATE IN THE WEEK, WHICH IS IN
RESPONSE TO MARGINAL CONDITIONS COUPLED WITH THE OVERALL
STRENGTH AND PATH OF THE INCOMING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM BEING IN
QUESTION.
UNSURPRISINGLY, BETTER CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE SNOWFALL WILL
OCCUR OVER THE CASCADE, BLUE, AND WALLOWA MOUNTAINS LATER IN THE
WEEK, WITH CURRENT AMOUNTS REACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS
THE OREGON CASCADES (5-8") AND NEAR ADVISORY AMOUNTS OVER THE
NORTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS (6-10") THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS
MAY LEAD TO ADVISORIES BEING ISSUED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING,
BUT CURRENT CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO THE OVERALL SPREAD OF 6-8"
RELATED TO 48- HOUR SNOW TOTALS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. ALSO
OF NOTE IS THAT THE NBM PROVIDES ONLY A 50-60% CHANCE OF
ADVISORY SNOW AMOUNTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS. THERE
IS GREATER CONFIDENCE VIA THE NBM OVER THE OREGON CASCADES OF
80-90% OF ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWFALL, BUT THE 6-8" SPREAD IN SNOW
AMOUNTS IS STILL PRESENT WHICH WOULD BARELY MEET CRITERIA IF THE
25TH PERCENTILE SNOW AMOUNT COMES TO FRUITION. STAY TUNED. 75
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
PRECIPITATION MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
PERIODIC LOW CIGS WITH REDUCED VSBY UNDER HEAVIER PRECIPITATION
AT SITES PDT/ALW INTO THIS EVENING, WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE, LOW CIGS AT SITES PSC/YKM ARE EXPECTED TO
IMPROVE OVER THE EVENING, AND REMAIN ABOVE 3KFT THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. OTHERWISE, MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL AT ALL OTHER SITES...EXCEPT SITE DLS WHERE LOW CIGS
AROUND 1KFT MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT (CONFIDENCE 30%). BREEZY
WINDS (12- 17KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25KTS) WILL CONTINUE AT SITE
RDM AND ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP AT SITE PDT THIS LATE
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL WEAKEN OVERNIGHT, BUT SITE BDN WILL SEE
WINDS INCREASE TO 12-15KTS WITH GUSTS 20-25KTS TOMORROW MORNING.
OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. LAWHORN/82
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
PDT 27 45 27 41 / 60 30 40 40
ALW 30 46 29 41 / 70 30 60 50
PSC 29 48 28 47 / 20 10 20 20
YKM 23 41 23 41 / 10 20 10 10
HRI 29 47 27 45 / 40 10 30 20
ELN 21 36 22 37 / 20 30 20 20
RDM 22 39 18 37 / 20 30 20 20
LGD 25 41 24 37 / 90 50 70 80
GCD 24 39 22 35 / 80 60 50 60
DLS 29 44 29 44 / 20 50 30 40
PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PST WEDNESDAY FOR WAZ030.
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PST WEDNESDAY FOR ORZ502.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST TUESDAY FOR ORZ509.
DISCUSSION...75
AVIATION...82
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