271
FXUS66 KPDT 110947
AFDPDT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
247 AM PDT SAT JUL 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK.
- CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD MODERATE HEATRISK AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF
MAJOR HEATRISK GOING INTO MID NEXT-WEEK POSSIBLE.
- SLIGHT CHANCES (10-25%) OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE BLUE MOUNTAINS MONDAY TO WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
THE SYNOPTIC EVOLUTION FOCUSES ON A RIDGE FLANK OF A BROAD 500
MB HEAT DOME POSITIVELY TILTED ACROSS THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST
INTO THE REST OF THE GREAT BASIN FOR THE COMING DAYS.
IN THE SHORT TERM, A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE
THE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE THROUGH THE GAPS, AS REGIONAL
SATELLITE SHOWS THE CLOUDS OVER WESTERN WA AS WELL AS A CUMULUS
FIELD OVER THE CASCADES CREST AND KITTITAS VALLEY TONIGHT. LESS
HOT TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND ARE EXPECTED, DIRECTLY
INFLUENCED BY THE MARINE PUSH. THIS WILL BE A MUCH NEEDED RELIEF
TO THE TEMPERATURES SUNDAY IN THE EASTERN SECTION, AND
SPECIFICALLY THE HELLS CANYON AREAS WHERE A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT, RESULTING FROM LEVEL 2 (ORANGE) HEATRISK CATEGORIES,
AFFECTING THOSE WHO ARE SENSITIVE TO HEAT, ESPECIALLY THOSE
WITHOUT COOLING/HYDRATION, AND SOME HEATH SYSTEMS AND
INDUSTRIES.
A DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER TIME WILL BRING A FETCH OF WEAK
MONSOONAL MOISTURE INTO EASTERN OREGON BY MIDWEEK, INCREASING
CHANCES FOR HIGH BASED OR ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER DRY LOW
LEVEL PROFILES. BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON., CENTRAL OREGON AND THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS WILL SEE 20-25% PROBABILITIES FOR DRY
THUNDERSTORMS ON A 6 HOURLY BASIS, OVER 250-500 J/KG MEAN NBM
CAPE VALUES. THE SAME SPATIAL CHANCES RETURN WEDNESDAY BUT MUTED
TO AROUND 15-20%. THIS LOOKS LIKE DRY THUNDERSTORMS POTENTIAL
AS THE CHANCES FOR 0.01” ARE ONLY AROUND 20 TO 50%.
FOLLOWING A BRIEF RESPITE OF HOTTER WEATHER ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY, TUESDAY WILL ALSO MARK THE BEGINNING OF A RAMP BACK UP
OF HEAT RISK TO THE ELEVATED LEVEL 2 ORANGE CATEGORY WEDNESDAY
INTO SATURDAY. RUSSELL/71
S
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
WESTERLY WINDS UNDER 12 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL THIS MORNING UNTIL
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING KICKS OFF STRONGER GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON.
GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS WILL BECOME MORE COMMON AFTER 21Z WITH
STRONGEST GUSTS AT DLS. VFR WITH CLEAR SKY AND VERY DRY NEAR
SURFACE LAYER. RUSSELL/71
FIRE WEATHER
FOR TODAY, AN AREA OF INTEREST WITH RESPECT TO POTENTIALLY
FLIRTING RED FLAG CONDITIONS ACROSS WA694/WA691 WEST AND
SOUTHWEST OF YAKIMA HAS ABOUT 20 TO 50% CHANCES OF REACHING RED
FLAG CONDITIONS, WHICH IS TOO LOW OF STATISTICAL CONFIDENCE TO
CONSIDER READ FLAG (80%). CONDITIONS COULD BE APPROACHING THE
RED FLAG CRITERIA FOR WIND AND RH AROUND ANTHONY LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON BEFORE A FRONT SWITCHES WINDS FORM THE SW TO THE
NORTHWEST AND INCREASES RH BY ABOUT 01 UTC.
A DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER TIME WILL BRING A FETCH OF WEAK
MONSOONAL MOISTURE INTO EASTERN OREGON BY MIDWEEK, INCREASING
CHANCES FOR HIGH BASED OR ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER DRY LOW
LEVEL PROFILES, WHICH COULD HAVE IMPACTS DUE TO DRY LIGHTNING
OVER EASTERN OREGON ZONES THAT HAVE ALL BEEN DRIED OUT ENOUGH TO
UNDERGO RAPID SPREAD. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
TUESDAY AS A RESULT. CHANCES FOR WETTING RAIN ARE VERY LOW, AT
ONLY ABOUT A 15% CHANCE OF 0.10” PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE BLUE
MOUNTAINS. ISOLATED DOWNBURTS CAN LEAD TO ERRATIC WINDS MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, BUT BEST PROBABILITIES ON TUESDAY
(25%). RUSSELL/71
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
PDT 87 57 84 56 / 0 0 0 0
ALW 90 62 85 60 / 0 0 0 0
PSC 92 61 88 57 / 0 0 0 0
YKM 89 58 88 56 / 0 0 0 0
HRI 90 60 87 58 / 0 0 0 0
ELN 84 53 81 52 / 0 0 0 0
RDM 88 51 87 52 / 0 0 0 0
LGD 95 57 87 57 / 0 0 0 0
GCD 97 57 91 57 / 0 0 0 0
DLS 84 59 87 58 / 0 0 0 0
PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...NONE.
OR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR ORZ050.
DISCUSSION...71
AVIATION...71
FIRE WEATHER...71
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