145
FXUS66 KPDT 070541
AFDPDT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1040 PM PDT MON APR 6 2026
.UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.
KEY MESSAGES
1. LOW CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON WITH CONTINUED WARM
CONDITIONS
2. WIDESPREAD BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
* WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT*
3. PATTERN SHIFT BRINGS UNCERTAINTY TO THE FORECAST BEGINNING
MIDWEEK
DISCUSSION
CURRENT RADAR SHOWS A FEW CONVECTIVE CELLS TRYING TO FORM IN THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF DESCHUTES COUNTY. GUIDANCE DOES SHOW A 10-15%
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS FORMING ACROSS THAT AREA THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. LATEST CAMS ARE
SHOWING INSTABILITY WITH MUCAPES REACHING 200-250 J/KG WITH SHEAR
ONLY IN THE 15-25KTS RANGE. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY
CONCERN WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS WITH MODELS SUGGESTING UP TO 50 MPH
OUTFLOWS. DCAPE VALUES OF 300-500 J/KG SUPPORT THE OUTFLOW
PROBABILITIES.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE WARM WITH TEMPERATURES 15-20 DEGREES
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGE. COULD SEE SOME NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. NBM SHOWS TEMPERATURES TO BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S ACROSS THE BASIN, ADJACENT VALLEYS, GORGE, FOOTHILLS OF
THE BLUES, CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL OR WITH 80-90% PROBABILITIES.
THERE IS ALSO SOME ISOLATED LOCATIONS WITHIN THE BASIN (HANFORD
AREA) THAT COULD SEE TEMPERATURES REACH AT OR NEAR 80 DEGREES.
TEMPERATURES WILL THEN BEGIN TO SETTLE TUESDAY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM
MOVES IN BRINGING TEMPERATURES BACK TO 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
WINDS WILL BE THE NEXT CONCERN FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE REGION
BECOMES SANDWICHED BETWEEN TWO UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS. THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW TO THE NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE AS IT MOVES
IN FROM THE NORTH LATER THIS EVENING. IN HOUSE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TOOL SHOWS A TIGHTENING OF THE SURFACE GRADIENTS ACROSS THE AREA
WITH A 10-14 MB SPREAD. THIS WILL BRING INCREASED WINDS TO THE
KITTITAS VALLEY WHERE A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM THROUGH
5 PM TUESDAY FOR 25-35 MPH SUSTAINED WINDS AND GUSTS TO 45 MPH (70-
80% CONFIDENCE). WINDS WILL BE BREEZY ACROSS THE SIMCOE HIGHLANDS AS
WELL AS THE FOOTHILLS OF THE SOUTHERN BLUES WITH 60-80% OF THE RAW
NBM ENSEMBLES IN AGREEMENT FOR GUSTS 30-35 MPH IN THOSE LOCATIONS.
WINDS WILL ALSO BE ELEVATED ALONG THE RIDGETOPS OF THE OCHOCO JOHN-
DAY HIGHLANDS, HORSE HEAVEN HILLS AND ALONG PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN BLUES.
MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE AFTER TUESDAY WITH THE NEXT PATTERN
SOLUTION. THE CUT-OFF LOW IN THE PACIFIC AND THE INCOMING TROUGH IS
PROVING DIFFICULT FOR MODELS TO RESOLVE. HOWEVER, THERE DOES APPEAR
TO BE COME CONGRUENCY WITH A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN OCCURRING WITH THE
TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST AND THE INCOMING CUT-OFF LOW TO THE SOUTH OF
THE REGION. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES TO NEAT OR ABOVE NORMAL
WITH SLIGHT CHANCES (15-30%) OF PRECIPITATION MAINLY ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS ANS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE REGION (DESCHUTES, GRANT
AND CROOK COUNTIES THROUGH FRIDAY. NBM RAW ENSEMBLES ALSO KEEP IN 10-
15% PROBABILITIES OF THOSE SAME AREAS SEEING SLIGHT CHANCES OF
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THEREAFTER, MODELS BEGIN TO SHOW ANOTHER
TROUGH IS SET TO MOVE INTO THE REGION, HOWEVER, CLUSTERS ARE SHOWING
A TIMING AND POSITIONING SEPARATION BETWEEN ENSEMBLES. LOOKING AT
THE CPC GUIDANCE, TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL WITH ABOVE NORMAL SEASONAL PRECIPITATION FOR DAYS 6-10.
90
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY AT ALL SITES, WHICH WILL STAY THE COURSE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. AN INCOMING COLD FRONT PASSAGE WILL INCREASE
WINDS ACROSS THE AREA, AS GUSTS OF 20-30KTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MORNING. WINDS WILL PEAK DURING MID-TO LATE MORNING FOR MOST SITES,
WITH KRDM/KBDN PEAKING MID-TO LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL SLOWLY
SUBSIDE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CEILINGS WILL DECREASE TO
AROUND 15KFT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS BEFORE LIFTING BY LATE
MORNING TO MID AFTERNOON. 75
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
PDT 47 65 35 65 / 0 0 0 0
ALW 50 65 39 65 / 0 0 0 0
PSC 47 69 37 68 / 0 0 0 0
YKM 42 66 35 67 / 0 0 0 0
HRI 49 68 36 68 / 0 0 0 0
ELN 38 57 32 62 / 10 0 0 0
RDM 37 68 32 68 / 0 0 0 0
LGD 43 65 34 65 / 0 0 0 0
GCD 42 68 34 67 / 20 0 0 0
DLS 46 65 39 70 / 0 0 0 0
PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 5 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR WAZ026.
OR...NONE.
DISCUSSION...90
AVIATION...75
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