285
FXUS66 KPDT 142156
AFDPDT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
256 PM PDT MON SEP 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WEATHER SYSTEM WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY, BRINGING
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MOUNTAIN AREAS.
- CHANCES OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS GREATEST ON THURSDAY THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON TO EVENING HOURS.
- FALL LIKE WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEK WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO HIGH 70S.
DISCUSSION
SATELLITE AND RADAR ADVERTISE DRY CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES ACROSS THE REGION. FALL LIKE CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW 70S TO HIGH 70S. WINDS ARE GENERALLY LIGHT WITH TYPICAL
DIURNAL WINDS THROUGH THE AREA. OUR NEXT WEATHER MAKER WILL
ARRIVE SOMETIME TUESDAY WITH A TROUGH/SHORTWAVE MAKING ITS WAY
DOWN FROM BC, CLIPPING THE PACNW IN THE PROCESS. FLOW ALOFT IN
THE PROCESS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST, ALLOWING FOR MOISTURE
TRANSPORTATION TO BRING POP'S UP TO 15-40% OVER CENTRAL OREGON
AND THE MOUNTAIN REGION. MOST WEATHER WILL BE STRATIFORM WITH
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE LATE MORNING TO LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS.
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE LOW WILL BE CUT-OFF OVER
OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA (80-90% CONFIDENCE). CHANCES OF
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR CENTRAL OREGON AND MOUNTAIN REGIONS
INCREASE THURSDAY (UP TO 25% CHANCE) WITH THE LOW OVERHEAD.
WETTING RAINS WILL REMAIN LOCAL, WITH AREAS RECEIVING THE
HEAVIEST SHOWERS/STORMS RECEIVING WETTING RAINS. OTHERWISE,
GUIDANCE BECOMES LESS CONFIDENCE AS WE HEAD INTO FRIDAY AFTER
THE SHORTWAVE BECOMES A CUTOFF LOW. ABOUT 49% OF CLUSTERS
ADVERTISE A DRIER PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH WEAKER
TROUGH/SHORTWAVE, WHILE THE REMAINING 51% ADVERTISE THE
OPPOSITE. CONFIDENCE IS BETTER IN THE LATTER PART OF SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY AS MOST MEMBERS SHOW AT LEAST ZONAL FLOW OR SLIGHT
RIDGING OVERHEAD THAT HAS DRIER WEATHER IN PLACE BY THE WEEKEND.
ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE IS NO WHERE IN A CONSCIENCE HOW IT WANTS TO
HANDLE THE SHORTWAVE BEYOND SUNDAY, ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS APPEAR
BENIGN UNTIL AT LEAST THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY-WESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO LINGER THIS
MORNING AT KPDT/KALW; WHILE LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE. STRATUS CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY
DECENT FOR VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.
ALL AIRPORTS, EXCEPT KPSC, WILL SEE OVC CONDITIONS BY 18Z (80%
CONFIDENCE),BUT WILL STILL BE IN VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS FOR
MAJORITY OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS. KSPC WILL SEE SOME SCT CLOUD
COVER FOR MAJORITY OF THE AFTERNOON UNTIL THE NEXT ISSUANCE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
PDT 42 67 45 72 / 0 0 10 0
ALW 47 70 48 75 / 0 0 10 0
PSC 45 70 46 79 / 0 0 10 0
YKM 47 66 48 74 / 0 10 10 0
HRI 44 70 46 76 / 0 0 10 0
ELN 42 61 42 70 / 0 20 10 0
RDM 37 70 39 69 / 0 0 20 10
LGD 41 72 45 74 / 0 0 20 0
GCD 41 75 44 74 / 0 0 30 0
DLS 50 72 54 80 / 0 0 10 0
PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...NONE.
OR...NONE.
DISCUSSION...95
AVIATION...01
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