104
FXUS66 KPDT 110534
AFDPDT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1034 PM PDT MON AUG 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
1. DRY, WARM AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND BEGINNING OF THE WEEK
2. PATTERN SHIFT MID-WEEK COULD BRING PRECIPITATION AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES
DISCUSSION
CURRENT SATELLITE SHOWS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH SMOKE LINGERING IN
SOME AREAS AROUND THE WILDFIRES. SMOKE WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER
THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT WITH THE INCREASED WINDS, WILL NOT SETTLE TO
HEAVILY AT THE SURFACE EXCEPT OVERNIGHT. AQAS ARE STILL IN EFFECT
FOR MOST COUNTIES EXCEPT SHERMAN, GILLIAM, MORROW AND UMATILLA AND
WILL REMAIN THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY BEFORE BEING REEVALUATED.
DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID-WEEK AS WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES OVER THE REGION. WESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MID WEEK-WITH TEMPERATURES BECOMING SLIGHTLY COOLER. IN
HOUSE CALCULATIONS SHOWS MUCH OF THE REGION TO STILL BE ABOVE
SEASONAL AVERAGE NEAR 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TODAY. AS THE
TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO DECREASE, RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE. THIS WILL BRING THE AREA OUT OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS BUT WILL STILL REMAIN ELEVATED. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN 10 TO 15 MPH AND GUSTING BETWEEN 25 TO 35 MPH THROUGH AT
LEAST TOMORROW WITH 80% OF THE NBM RAW ENSEMBLES IN AGREEMENT.
WEDNESDAY MODELS SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINNING TO SLIP INTO THE
PACNW. THIS WILL BRING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS WELL AS SOME MID
LEVEL MOISTURE. LOOKING AT NBM ENSEMBLES, THERE IS A 15-20% CHANCE
OF THE NORTHERN CASCADES SEEING THUNDERSTORMS. LOOKING AT GFS
FORECAST SOUNDINGS, THERE IS MUCAPE VALUES OF BETWEEN 250-500 J/KG ,
LAPSE RATES OF OVER 10 C/KM, LIS OF -2 AND SHEAR OF 24 KTS. THESE
STORMS WILL LIKELY PROVIDE A STRIKE OR TWO AS WELL AS PRODUCING SOME
MEASURABLE RAINFALL.
THURSDAY APPEARS TO BE A LULL IN ACTIVITY BEFORE PICKING BACK UP
FRIDAY. MODELS SHOW THE REGION TO BE WEDGED BETWEEN THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH TO THE NORTH AND THE FOUR CORNER HIGH TO THE SOUTH. THE HIGH
WILL USHER IN SOME MONSOONAL MOISTURE INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN OR.
BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON THE MOISTURE WILL BE OVER CENTRAL OR AND THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS WITH NBM ENSEMBLES SHOWING 20-0% CHANCES. AS THIS
REMAINS FIVE DAYS OUT, WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS THE EVENT
DRAWS NEAR.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL WITH IMPROVED VISIBILITIES ACROSS THE
BOARD. SOME AREAS, LIKE BDN AND RDM, ARE BORDERLINE VFR WITH SIX
MILE VISIBILITIES. BDN IS STILL EXPERIENCING SOME 2500 FEET
HEIGHTS BUT IS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE INTO VFR LATER THIS NIGHT.
OTHERWISE, GENERAL 10 TO 15 KNOT WINDS PREVAILING WITH THE DLS
STRENGTHENING INTO 20 TO 25 KNOT GUSTS BY THE LATE MORNING
HOURS.
FIRE WEATHER
WESTERLY FLOW HAS BROUGHT COOLER TEMPERATURE AND INCREASING
RELATIVE HUMIDITY. WHILE THERE ARE BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGION, ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE CASCADE GAPS AND ALONG
THE SOUTHERN BLUE FOOTHILLS, WIND AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY
THRESHOLDS ARE BELOW CRITICAL. FIRE WEATHER REMAINS ELEVATED AND
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE WEEK.
WEDNESDAY COULD SEE CHANCES (15-20%) OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
NORTHER CASCADES IN KITTITAS VALLEY. WHILE WE DON'T EXPECT THEM TO
BE STRONG IN NATURE, WE CAN NOT RULE OUT A STRIKE OR TWO AND GUSTY
OUTFLOWS. AS WE MOVE INTO FRIDAY, MODELS SHOW MONSOONAL MOISTURE
MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE REGION THROUGH DESCHUTES,
CROOK, GRANT AND WALLOWA COUNTIES HAS 20-30% CHANCES OF SEEING
THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION WILL BE UNDER
UNSTABLE CONDITIONS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
PDT 53 88 54 85 / 0 0 0 0
ALW 60 90 61 87 / 0 0 0 0
PSC 56 92 57 90 / 0 0 0 0
YKM 58 93 58 89 / 0 0 0 0
HRI 57 91 58 88 / 0 0 0 0
ELN 55 86 56 83 / 0 0 0 10
RDM 46 89 46 85 / 0 0 0 0
LGD 52 91 54 87 / 0 0 0 0
GCD 52 92 53 89 / 0 0 0 0
DLS 60 88 60 84 / 0 0 0 0
PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL 11 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR WAZ024-026>030-
521>523.
OR...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL NOON PDT WEDNESDAY FOR ORZ041-049-050-
502-503-505-506-508>511.
DISCUSSION...90
AVIATION...95
FIRE WEATHER...90
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