747
FXUS66 KPQR 241048
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
348 AM PDT SAT OCT 24 2026
SYNOPSIS
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REGION. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS A
BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES OVER THE REGION. AN SEMI-ACTIVE
PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, WITH A BRIEF
PERIOD OF DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
LIGHT PRECIPITATION EXPECTED WEDNESDAY. BEYOND WEDNESDAY,
UNCERTAINTY INCREASES AS MODELS ENSEMBLES DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY
FROM EACH OTHER.
DISCUSSION...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY
TRANSIENT UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGING CONTINUES THROUGH THIS EVENING BRINGING CLEARING SKIES
AND LIGHT, OFFSHORE FLOW TO THE REGION. HOWEVER, BY TONIGHT A
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL BRING
PRECIPITATION BACK INTO THE FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. CURRENT, HIGH RESOLUTION ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAS
RAIN BEGINNING AT THE COAST EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AND REACHING
INLAND LOCATIONS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, WITH THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO CEASE BY MONDAY MORNING ACROSS THE
REGION. AT THIS POINT, THE CHANCES FOR 0.25 INCHES OF RAIN OR
MORE FROM 5 AM SUNDAY THROUGH 5 AM TUESDAY ARE 80-90% ALONG THE
COAST AND COAST RANGE, 70-80% ALONG THE I-5 CORRIDOR, AND 60-70%
IN THE CASCADES AND FOOTHILLS. EVEN WITH THE INFLUX OF
PRECIPITATION INTO THE REGION, SEASONABLE CONDITIONS WITH MILDER
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK APPROACHES,
FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES AS THE EARLY WEEK LOW PUSHES
EASTWARD, ALTHOUGH LONG-RANGE GUIDANCE DOES CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR RAIN, WITH 30-40% OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
BRINGING ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM TO THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY, THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS
IMPACTFUL AS THE SUNDAY/MONDAY ONE. OVERALL, SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED TO CONTINUE INTO THE FINAL WEEK OF
OCTOBER. AS FOR THOSE WONDERING WHAT IS EXPECTED FOR THE FINAL
SATURDAY IN OCTOBER, ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS POINTING TOWARDS A
DRIER SOLUTION WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS ABOVE FREEZING. /42-36
AVIATION...THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY
CURRENT GROUND OBSERVATIONS AS
OF 11Z SATURDAY SHOW GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AIRSPACE.
HOWEVER, SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS ARE SHOWING IFR CONDITIONS PUSHING
UP THE COLUMBIA RIVER. THESE IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
IMPACT KPDX WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGH AROUND 15Z-18Z SATURDAY. ALONG THE COAST,
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE BEING OBSERVED NORTH OF KTMK AND ARE
ALSO EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH AROUND 15Z-18Z SATURDAY. THERE
REMAINS A 5-10% PROBABILITY OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP
WITHIN THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY THROUGH 15Z SATURDAY. ANY LOWERED
FLIGHT CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER 18Z SATURDAY AND
ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.
ALSO, EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT ALL
TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
AROUND 06Z SUNDAY, AN INCOMING SYSTEM WILL START TO BRING LIGHT
PRECIPITATION AND A MIXTURE OF HIGH-END VFR/LOW-END MVFR TO KAST.
THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SPREAD SOUTH AND EAST
THROUGH WHAT REMAINS OF THE 12Z TAF PERIOD, WITH MOST TERMINALS
LIKELY BEING IMPACTED AFTER 12Z SUNDAY.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...THE CURRENT VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEGRADE TO IFR WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. THESE CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH AROUND 15Z-18Z SATURDAY WITH
IMPROVEMENT TOWARDS VFR AFTERWARDS, THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
TAF PERIOD. /42
MARINE
A SLOW-MOVING LOW WILL APPROACH THE OUTER WATERS LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY, BRINGING A TRANSITION TO SOUTHERLY WINDS.
THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO RESULT IN BUILDING SEAS TOWARDS 8 TO 10 FT
WITH SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS APPROACHING 25 KT. THESE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO START IN ZONE PZZ271 BEFORE SPREADING SOUTH AND
EASTWARD THROUGH TONIGHT. AS A RESULT, HAVE ISSUED A SERIES OF
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ACROSS ALL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT. BY THE START OF NEXT WEEK, CONDITIONS LOOK TO
SUBSIDE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. HOWEVER, ANOTHER
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE WATERS BY MID- WEEK AND RESULT IN
AROUND A 20%-30% CHANCE FOR SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS TO RETURN. /42
PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR ORZ101>103-105-
107>109-111>113-119-123.
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR ORZ104-106-
114>118-124-125.
WA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR WAZ203>208.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 PM PDT SUNDAY
FOR PZZ251.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 11 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR PZZ252-
272.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 11 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR PZZ253-
273.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 PM PDT SUNDAY
FOR PZZ271.
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