022  
FXUS66 KPQR 172300  
AFDPQR  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR  
400 PM PDT WED SEP 17 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS  
ONSHORE FLOW AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE  
EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. A LARGER TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEAST  
FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA THIS WEEKEND WILL BRING A MORE  
NOTICEABLE COOL- DOWN AND HIGHER RAIN CHANCES, ESPECIALLY FOR  
THE COAST AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH  
SUNDAY.  
 
 
   
SHORT TERM...NOW THROUGH SATURDAY  
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND  
TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. A WEAK COLD  
FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE AREA BROUGHT LITTLE IN THE FORM OF  
PRECIPITATION, A FEW LIGHT SPRINKLES ALONG THE COAST WHERE  
CLOUDS HAVEN'T DISSIPATED ARE POSSIBLE. ONSHORE FLOW BEHIND THE  
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK  
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE BUILDS TOWARDS THE COAST. HIGHS  
ON THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE TAD COOLER, TOPPING OUT IN THE  
MID TO UPPER 70S INLAND AND LOW TO MID 60S ALONG THE COAST AND  
HIGHER TERRAIN. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER,  
CLOSER TO THE 80 MARK AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE RIDGE  
PASSES OVERHEAD. -BATZ  
   
LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT  
DRY  
CONDITIONS WILL COME TO AN END SATURDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG SHORT  
WAVER TROUGH DROPS SOUTHEAST ALONG THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST.  
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WA AND OR COASTS SATURDAY NIGHT  
INTO SUNDAY. PROBABILITIES FOR MEASURABLE RAIN WILL RANGE FROM  
20-60% FOR MOST OF NORTHWEST OREGON, WITH LOWER CHANCES (AS LOW  
AS 15%) IN THE SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND INTO THE LANE/LINN  
COUNTY CASCADES AND FOOTHILLS. HIGHER CHANCES OF 50-80% ARE  
EXPECTED NORTH AND WEST OF A LINE FROM THE WILLAPA HILLS DOWN TO  
TILLAMOOK, INCLUDING THE SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON COAST AND AROUND  
ASTORIA. TEMPERATURES TREND COOLER FOR SUNDAY, GENERALLY INTO  
THE LOW 70S INLAND AND 60S ALONG THE COAST AS CLOUD COVER  
INCREASES.  
 
LOOKING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, HIGHS REMAIN SEASONABLE IN THE  
MID TO UPPER 70S INLAND, WITH CONTINUED COOL CONDITIONS ALONG  
THE COAST. TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE  
COAST OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA RIDES UP A TROUGH OVER THE  
NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND INTO OREGON. GUIDANCE CURRENTLY SUGGESTS  
WIDESPREAD 20-30% PROBABILITIES FOR PRECIPITATION, THOUGH  
DETAILS SUCH AS TIMING REMAINS UNCERTAIN. -BATZ/HALL  
 
 
   
AVIATION  
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS MOVING EAST, BUT THE REGION  
IS STILL MAINTAINING A GENERALLY WARM AND DRY AIR MASS. VFR WITH  
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES CONTINUES THIS EVENING ACROSS WILLAMETTE  
VALLEY TERMINALS. MVFR CIGS ALONG THE COAST ARE BEGINNING TO  
SCATTER OUT AND/OR LIFT TO VFR, AND SHOULD PREDOMINATELY BE VFR  
AFTER 02-03Z THU. EXPECT NORTHERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS THIS  
AFTERNOON AROUND 5-10 KT INLAND AND 10-15 KT ALONG THE COAST WITH  
GUSTS UP TO 20 KT, STRONGEST IN THE AFTERNOON.  
 
MOISTENING CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WILL FAVOR MARINE STRATUS  
DEVELOPING AGAIN ALONG THE COAST AFTER 10-12Z THU, HOWEVER,  
CURRENTLY HAVE MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR THIS. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A  
40-60% CHANCE FOR IFR/MVFR CIGS RETURNING TO KONP AND KAST. HIGHER  
CONFIDENCE (60-80% CHANCE) FOR MVFR STRATUS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS  
THE FAR EASTERN PORTLAND/VANCOUVER METRO AREA AFTER 10-12Z THU.  
 
KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING.  
NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 7-10 KT THIS AFTERNOON. 30-40% CHANCE FOR  
MVFR CIGS AFTER 10-12Z THU AS MORNING STRATUS DEVELOPS IN THE FAR  
EASTERN METRO. -ALVIZ  
 
 
   
MARINE  
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY, BUOY OBSERVATIONS ARE NOW SHOWING  
WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS TURNING NORTHERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY. EXPECT  
THESE WINDS TO GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH  
PRESSURE STRENGTHENS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT  
ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR NORTHERLY WINDS  
15-20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. SEAS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO BUILD  
TO AROUND. SEAS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO BUILD TO AROUND 8 TO 10 FT  
WITH A PERIOD OF AROUND 10-11 SECONDS DURING THIS TIME.  
 
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS SOUTH AND EASES ON FRIDAY, WEAKENING  
NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS. A FRONTAL SYSTEM ARRIVES THIS  
WEEKEND FROM THE NORTH, RETURNING SOUTHERLY WINDS. NO SUBSTANTIAL  
IMPACTS EXPECTED FOR NOW, WITH GUIDANCE SUGGESTING A 15-30% CHANCE  
FOR SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS OF 21 KT OR GREATER (SMALL CRAFT  
CONDITIONS). -ALVIZ/DH  
 
 
   
PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
OR...NONE.  
WA...NONE.  
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM PDT  
THURSDAY FOR PZZ210.  
 
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT  
THURSDAY FOR PZZ251>253-271>273.  
 
 
 
 
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