815
FXUS66 KPQR 302057
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
157 PM PDT SAT MAY 30 2026
SYNOPSIS
DRY CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WITH
NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY. A WARMING
TREND EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH MODERATE HEATRISK LIKELY ON
TUESDAY FOR MANY URBAN AREAS AS THERE IS AROUND A 50% CHANCE OF
EXCEEDING 90 DEGREES. TEMPERATURES COOL AGAIN TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE AVERAGE BY WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST. CHANCES FOR
RAIN REMAIN LOW (LESS THAN 10%) THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE INCREASING
LATE NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT SATURDAY.
SHORT TERM...NOW THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON REVEALS UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING EXTENDING FROM
THE GULF OF ALASKA INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AT THE SAME TIME,
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS STRONG OVER THE NE PACIFIC CENTERED
WELL OFFSHORE OFF THE NORTHERN CA COAST, WHILE LOWER LEVEL RIDGING
MAINTAINS ONSHORE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. THIS OVERALL SET-UP FOR TODAY
WILL MAINTAIN SEASONABLY COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH SHALLOW
CUMULUS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WITH SKIES BECOMING
MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT, EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF COOL TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER HOOD RIVER VALLEY NEAR PARKDALE ARE EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR TO
LAST NIGHT, FALLING TO AROUND 36-38 DEGREES, WHILE A FEW RURAL
INLAND LOCATIONS MAY ALSO DIP INTO THE UPPER 30S, INCLUDING NORTHERN
CLARK COUNTY, COAST RANGE VALLEYS, INCLUDING VERNONIA AND GRAND
RONDE, AS WELL AS POCKETS WITHIN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE
VALLEY. CONFIDENCE FOR WIDESPREAD FROST IS LOW.
SIMILAR CONDITIONS INTO SUNDAY, EXCEPT LOWER LEVEL FLOW TURNING MORE
NORTHERLY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NE PACIFIC BUILDS NORTHWARD,
ALLOWING FOR SLIGHTLY DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA.
WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ON SUNDAY, EXPECT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO
INCREASE AROUND 3-6 DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY, AS THE FINAL DAY OF
MAY RETURNS TO SEASONABLY AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. ALSO EXPECT DIURNALLY
INDUCED NORTHERLY WINDS TO BECOME BREEZY BY LATE AFTERNOON, WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25-30 MPH ALONG THE COAST AND 20-25 MPH INLAND.
WILL SEE WARMER TEMPERATURES AS THE CALENDAR CHANGES TO JUNE. BY
MONDAY, UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ATTEMPTS TO AMPLIFY JUST OFFSHORE, WHILE
ENSEMBLES SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING PINCHING OFF INTO A WEAK
CUT-OFF LOW OVER WESTERN MONTANA. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES AT BAY ON MONDAY, BUT THE WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY. LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS
EARLY MONDAY WHILE 850 MB TEMPS WARM TO AROUND 12-14C BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. EXPECT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO JUMP INTO THE LOWER TO
POTENTIALLY MID-80S INLAND, WHILE COASTAL LOCATIONS MAY SEE HIGH
TEMPS INTO THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70 DEGREES, BEFORE THE SEABREEZE
MODERATES TEMPS A BIT. THE LATEST NBM GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW ~5
DEGREE SPREAD BETWEEN THE 25TH AND 75TH PERCENTILE FOR THE
PORTLAND/VANCOUVER METRO (81-86F). THERE IS AROUND A 10-20% CHANCE
THAT SOME LOCATIONS WITHIN THE METRO REACH 90 DEGREES, INCLUDING THE
BEAVERTON TO WILSONVILLE CORRIDOR, AS WELL AS IN THE CLACKAMAS AREA.
TUESDAY IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE THE WARMEST DAY THIS WEEK AS THE
UPPER LOW SHIFTS NORTHEAST INTO CANADA AND UPPER SHORTWAVE RIDGING
MOVES ONSHORE ACROSS THE PACNW. 850 MB TEMPS PEAK AT AROUND 13-16C
ALLOWING FOR AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES INLAND TO WARM INTO THE MID-80S
TO POTENTIALLY THE LOWER-90S. LATEST PROBS SUGGEST THERE IS AROUND A
40-60% CHANCE OF EXCEEDING 90 DEGREES ALONG THE I-5 CORRIDOR FROM
CASTLE ROCK, WA SOUTH TO SALEM. A MODERATE HEATRISK IS LIKELY (60-
80% CHANCE) FOR TUESDAY WITHIN THE GREATER PORTLAND/VANCOUVER METRO
AREA, WHICH MEANS THOSE WITHOUT ACCESS TO SUFFICIENT COOLING AND
HYDRATION MAY BE IMPACTED BY THE HEAT. THEREFORE, TAKE PRECAUTIONS
ON TUESDAY IF PARTICIPATING IN OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES, ESPECIALLY DURING
PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING. THE HEAT IS NOT EXPECTED TO LAST LONG,
THOUGH AS A DECENT MARINE PUSH IS EXPECTED BY LATER TUE EVENING
AHEAD OF AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH. /DH
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
THERE IS RELATIVELY HIGH
CONFIDENCE THAT TEMPERATURES COOL BACK INTO THE 70S ON WEDNESDAY AND
PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, REMAINING NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS FOR EARLY JUNE. MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLES ARE
IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE NE
PACIFIC WEAKENS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE GULF OF ALASKA ON WEDNESDAY.
AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BAND WELL AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL
APPROACH THE COAST, BUT GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND DOWN WITH MUCH,
IF ANY, PRECIPITATION SPREADING INLAND. IN FACT, NBM GUIDANCE
GENERALLY SHOWS LESS THAN A 10% CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH THURSDAY.
BUT, THERE REMAIN A HANDFUL OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS THAT DO SHOW SOME
QPF, SO WE CANNOT RULE OUT SOME PRECIPITATION YET. UNCERTAINTY IN
THE FORECAST INCREASES LATE NEXT WEEK AS CLUSTER MEAN ANALYSIS SHOWS
VARYING DEGREES OF TROUGHING OFFSHORE, LEADING TO INCREASING CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. /DH
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH
NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. DIURNALLY DRIVEN WINDS INCREASES IN THE
AFTERNOON AFTER 20Z SAT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT. EXPECT GUSTS
ALONG THE COAST FROM 21Z SAT-00Z SUN THROUGH 04Z-06Z SUNDAY AND
FOR INLAND LOCATIONS TO START AROUND 00Z-02Z SUN THROUGH 05Z-07Z
SUNDAY. KEUG AND K77S THERE IS A CHANCE (APPROX 10%) FOR VCFG
DEVELOPING AROUND 10Z-14Z SUN HOWEVER MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING IT
REACHING THE TERMINALS. SOME LOW-END VFR/HIGH-END MVFR CONDITIONS
COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST FROM 08Z-18Z SUNDAY, BUT CONFIDENCE
IS LOW IN IT OCCURRING OR IMPACTING ANY TERMINALS ALONG THE
COAST.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH
NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. EXPECT GUSTS UP TO 20 KT STARTING
AROUND 02Z SUN THROUGH AROUND 07Z SUNDAY. /42
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHICH WILL
LEAD TO A TYPICAL SUMMER LIKE PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL START TO MOVE EASTWARD TONIGHT AND THROUGH SUNDAY,
WHICH WILL RESULT IN INCREASING NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ACROSS
ALL WATERS. GUSTS UP TO 25 KT ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ZONES PZZ272,
PZZ252, PZZ271 AND PZZ251. GUSTS UP TO 30 KT ARE EXPECTED IN ZONES
PZZ273 AND PZZ253, WITH A 15-25% CHANCE FOR GUSTS UP TO 35 KT.
THEREFORE HAVE ISSUED A SERIES OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ACROSS
ALL WATERS STARTING LATE SUNDAY MORNING IN OUR SOUTHERN WATERS AND
SPREADING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 TO 8 FT
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO SHIFT EASTWARD AND INTENSIFY THROUGH
TUESDAY BUT OVERALL WILL HAVE MINIMAL IMPACT TO THE MARINE
ENVIRONMENT. BY MONDAY, CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS ACROSS ALL WATERS. A PATTERN CHANGE
EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AS A SERIES OF SYSTEMS LOOK TO DIVE DOWN OUT
OF THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK,
BUT MINIMAL IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE SYSTEMS AT THIS TIME.
/42
PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM SUNDAY TO 2 AM PDT MONDAY FOR
PZZ251-252.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM SUNDAY TO 2 AM PDT MONDAY FOR
PZZ253.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM SUNDAY TO 2 AM PDT MONDAY FOR
PZZ271.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM SUNDAY TO 9 AM PDT MONDAY FOR
PZZ272.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM SUNDAY TO 9 AM PDT MONDAY FOR
PZZ273.
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