492
FXUS66 KPQR 271755 AAA
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
1055 AM PDT MON JUL 27 2026
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.
SYNOPSIS
PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING NEAR-AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES WITH VARYING DEGREES OF MORNING CLOUDS AND
AFTERNOON SUNSHINE FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT WEEK. A SERIES OF WEAK
FRONTS WILL BRING NOTABLE CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE TO
PORTIONS OF THE WASHINGTON AND NORTH OREGON COASTS TUESDAY AND
NEXT WEEKEND, WHILE FRIDAY IS LIKELY TO BE THE WARMEST DAY.
DISCUSSION...NOW THROUGH SUNDAY
THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN
REMAINS FAIRLY STEADY THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK WITH THE REGION
WEDGED BETWEEN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA AND
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES AND CENTRAL PLAINS. IN
GENERAL, THE WEATHER LOCALLY WILL BE TYPICAL FOR THE MID-SUMMER:
MORNING CLOUDS FOLLOWED BY INCREASING AFTERNOON SUNSHINE,
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES, AND LARGELY DRY CONDITIONS, BUT WITH
SOME VARIATIONS AS THE STRENGTHS OF THESE TWO DOMINANT
FEATURES CHANGE RELATIVE TO ONE ANOTHER.
TODAY, UPPER RIDGING WINS OUT AS HEIGHTS ALOFT RISE MARGINALLY,
YIELDING CLOUDS CLEARING ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST BY THE EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH SEASONABLY WARM HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S ON
THE COAST AND MID 80S WITHIN THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY. ON TUESDAY,
AN UPPER SHORTWAVE PASSING TO THE NORTH WILL TILT THE SCALES IN
FAVOR OF UPPER TROUGHING, SENDING A WEAK FRONT TOWARD THE COAST
RESULTING IN COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION AND CHANCES
FOR LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE ALONG THE COAST AND COAST RANGE,
INCREASING FROM 40% AT FLORENCE TO 60% AT NEWPORT, 75% AT
TILLAMOOK, 95% AT ASTORIA, AND NEARLY 100% ON THE LONG BEACH
PENINSULA. CHANCES FOR ACCUMULATING RAINFALL ARE LOWER ALONG
THE I-5 CORRIDOR, RANGING FROM 20% AT SALEM TO 30% AT PORTLAND,
60% AT WOODLAND, AND 75% AT KELSO/LONGVIEW.
THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORKWEEK, THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
WILL STRENGTHEN AND RETROGRADE WESTWARD INTO THE GREAT BASIN,
INCREASING HEIGHTS ALOFT LOCALLY AND AGAIN TIPPING THE BALANCE
TOWARD WARM AND DRY WEATHER. AS SUCH, TEMPERATURES WILL TREND
UPWARD EACH AFTERNOON, PEAKING ON FRIDAY IN THE UPPER 60S TO
AROUND 70 DEGREES ON THE COAST AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
WITHIN INLAND VALLEYS. DESPITE THIS TREND, ONSHORE FLOW WILL
CONTINUE, LIMITING THE RISK FOR HAZARDOUS HEAT. MINOR HEATRISK
IS FAVORED FOR THE ENTIRE REGION ON FRIDAY, WITH 20-40% CHANCES
FOR MODERATE HEATRISK IN URBAN AND SUBURBAN AREAS FROM SALEM
NORTH TO VANCOUVER, WA. BY NEXT WEEKEND, THERE CONTINUES TO BE
HIGHER UNCERTAINTY IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN,
BUT MANY ENSEMBLE MEMBERS DEPICT MORE PRONOUNCED TROUGHING
RETURNING TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, FAVORING COOLER TEMPERATURES
AND FURTHER CHANCES FOR RAINFALL. THE DETAILS OF TIMING AND
POTENTIAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS REMAIN FUZZY AT THIS LEAD TIME, BUT
THOSE NEAR THE COAST OR WITHIN COASTAL TERRAIN WILL BE THE MOST
LIKELY BENEFICIARIES OF ANY RAINFALL, WITH CHANCES INCREASING TO
THE NORTH. -36
AVIATION...THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND VFR
FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR INLAND TAF SITES TODAY. LOW
CLOUDS WITH MVFR CEILINGS AT THE COAST ARE BEGINNING TO SCATTER
OUT, WITH VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT KAST AND KONP BY
18-19Z MONDAY. WINDS AT THE COAST WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST TO NEAR 10 KT WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 15 KT DURING THE
EARLY AFTERNOON, BEFORE EASING BELOW 5 KT AND BACKING OUT OF THE
SOUTH LATER THIS EVENING. A SEA BREEZE FRONT WILL BRING INCREASING
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS FOR INLAND TAF SITES BETWEEN 01-06Z
TUESDAY, SUSTAINED BETWEEN 5-10 KT. WINDS BECOME CALM THEREAFTER.
MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE COASTAL TERMINALS BY
APPROXIMATELY 06Z TUESDAY. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
EXACTLY HOW LOW CEILINGS WILL GET AT KONP; ALTHOUGH LOW- END MVFR
CEILINGS ARE THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME, THERE IS AROUND A 50% CHANCE
FOR IFR CEILINGS BELOW 1000 FT. INLAND TAF SITES WILL MOST LIKELY
REMAIN VFR TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING, HOWEVER THERE IS A
20-35% CHANCE FOR A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS BETWEEN 2000-3000 FT
BETWEEN 10-18Z TUESDAY.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL MAINTAIN VFR FLIGHT
CONDITIONS TODAY. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AROUND 5 KT WILL BECOME
NORTHWESTERLY AROUND 5-10 KT AROUND 02Z TUESDAY WITH AN INCOMING
SEA BREEZE. ALTHOUGH SKIES WILL MOST LIKELY STAY CLEAR TONIGHT,
THERE IS A 20-30% CHANCE FOR A BROKEN OR OVERCAST LOW STRATUS DECK
WITH CEILINGS BETWEEN 2000-3000 FT BETWEEN 10-18Z TUESDAY. -23
MARINE
A WEAK FRONT OFFSHORE WILL FINALLY RETREAT NORTHWARD
TODAY, BRINGING AN END TO LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE CHANCES OFF THE
SOUTH WA AND FOR NORTH OR COASTS BY THIS AFTERNOON. DIURNAL
SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10-15 KT AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND ANOTHER PASSING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL SEE A WIND SHIFT TO MORE SEASONABLE NORTHERLY FLOW
ON TUESDAY. STRENGTHENING NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE LATTER HALF
OF THE WORKWEEK WILL SEE 25-50% CHANCES FOR PEAK WIND GUSTS TO
REACH 20-25 KT WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOONS, ESPECIALLY
WITHIN 10 NM OF THE COAST.
SEAS CONTINUE AT 4-6 FT THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK WITH A DOMINANT
WEST TO NORTHWEST SWELL AT 8-9 SECONDS. -36
PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
X.COM/NWSPORTLAND
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