799
FXUS66 KPQR 121205
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
505 AM PDT SUN JUL 12 2026
SYNOPSIS
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TODAY, THEN
INCREASING MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS A RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FORECAST
BECOMES MORE UNCERTAIN WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, HOWEVER ODDS
ARE LEANING TOWARDS WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUING
WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS.
SHORT TERM...NOW THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
NORTH TO NORTHWEST
ONSHORE FLOW EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN THE LOW LEVELS WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.
HEIGHTS ALOFT REBOUND TODAY IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE, EXITING TO THE NORTHEAST. THE HREF ENSEMBLE MEAN
CONTINUES TO DEPICT CLOUD COVER BACKBUILDING OFF THE CASCADES
AND INTO THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND PORTLAND METRO. BROKEN CLOUD
COVER IS ALSO EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST BUT HAS BEEN MORE
SCATTERED. DESPITE MORNING CLOUDS, AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE EXPECTED
TO REACH A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN SATURDAY WITH A TREND TOWARD
CLEARING SKIES IN THE AFTERNOON. INTERIOR LOWLANDS CAN EXPECT
UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S WHILE THE COASTAL AREAS SEE THE 60S.
NOT EXPECTING NEARLY AS MUCH CLOUD COVER TO DEVELOP TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING DUE TO THE WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
THEREFORE, WEAKER ONSHORE FLOW. COULD STILL SEE SOME LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST LINGERING INTO MONDAY MORNING. UPPER
LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ON MONDAY AS THE 500 MB
PATTERN AMPLIFIES OVER OVER THE CONUS. A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL PERSIST WHILE A
SHORT WAVE DROPS SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
RIDGE, OFF THE WESTERN CANADA COAST AND TOWARD HE PACNW. LACK OF
MORNING CLOUD COVER AND THE AMPLIFYING PATTERN WILL SUPPORT
INCREASING AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY, JUMPING INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS AND MID 60S TO LOW
70S ALONG THE COAST.
IT IS ALSO WORTH NOTING THE POTENTIAL FOR HAZY SKIES IN THE CASCADES
OF EASTERN LANE COUNTY DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS ON SUNDAY
AND MONDAY DUE TO SMOKE COMING FROM A WILDFIRE BURNING IN NORTHWEST
JACKSON COUNTY BETWEEN WIMER, OR AND SHADY GROVE, OR. THE RRFS SMOKE
MODEL BACKS UP THIS EXPECTATION, WITH VERTICALLY INTEGRATED SMOKE
VALUES INCREASING TO NEAR 100 MG/M^2 NEAR THE CASCADE CREST.
FORTUNATELY, SMOKE ALOFT IS NOT EXPECTED TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE
IN EASTERN LANE COUNTY. -19/23
LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
THE WARM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER THE AREA. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW
90S ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS AND MID 60S TO
LOW 70S ALONG THE COAST. A WEAK DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO PASS
OVER CENTRAL OREGON AND COULD SUPPORT SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG THE CASCADE CREST DURING THE AFTERNOON. PROBABILITIES AT
THIS TIME ARE AROUND 15-30% ALONG THE LANE AND LINN COUNTY
CASCADES.
THE PATTERN CONTINUES TO SHOW A DECENT AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY HEADING
INTO WEDNESDAY AND THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURE
AND PRECIPITATION DISCREPANCIES AT THE FOREFRONT. ENSEMBLES
CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH A CLOSED LOW THAT IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP SOMEWHERE OFF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA AND
INTO THE PACNW. DEVELOPMENT FARTHER NORTH AROUND VANCOUVER
ISLAND WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER DAY OF WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S
WHILE A MORE SOUTHERN DEVELOPMENT OFF THE OREGON COAST WOULD
LEAD TO TEMPERATURES LIKELY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S, AT THIS
POINT, ENSEMBLES FAVOR THE FARTHER NORTH DEVELOPMENT WITH
70-80% OF ECMWF MEMBERS AND ~60% OF GFS MEMBERS. NBM SPREAD
BETWEEN THE 10TH-90TH PERCENTILES HAS DECREED FROM AROUND 20
DEGREES TO 15 DEGREES, RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 90S
NOW. THERE ALSO REMAINS A LOW (10-20%) CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS
THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CONFIDENCE INCREASES
FOR DRY WEATHER ON FRIDAY, HOWEVER THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST
REMAINS UNCERTAIN WITH THE NBM 10TH-90TH PERCENTILE FOR HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE LOWER 80S TO UPPER 90S FOR INLAND VALLEYS. -19
AVIATION
STRATUS CONTINUES TO BACKBUILD OFF THE CASCADES AND
INTO THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND PORTLAND METRO WITH CLOUD COVER
AROUND 3-4 KFT. LOW END VFR CIGS COULD BRIEFLY DROP DOWN TO MVFR
THOUGH CHANCES ARE ONLY 20-40% FOR ANY GIVEN INTERIOR LOCATION.
CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST ARE ALSO MIXED WITH A BIT OF STRATUS
DEVELOPING AROUND KONP AND KTMK WHILE KAST REMAINS SKC. POCKETS OF
CLOUD COVER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE BEFORE CLEARING LATE MORNING.
NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE LATE MORNING TO AROUND 10 KTS WITH
ISOLATED GUSTS TO 20 KT, BETTER CHANCES ALONG THE COAST.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...LOW END VFR CIGS AS STRATUS BUILDS IN FROM
THE EAST. LOW CHANCE FOR MVFR CIGS AROUND 20-30% THROUGH 15Z.
NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KT WITH ISOLATED GUSTS 15-20
KT POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON. -19
MARINE
NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW EXPECTED TO PERSIST TODAY AND
INTO NEXT WEEK. A THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON,
TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE COAST AND
STRENGTHENING WINDS. WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE CENTRAL WATER
FIRST, THEN GRADUALLY INCREASE NORTHWARD AS THE THERMAL TROUGH
STRENGTHENS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15-20 KT AND GUSTS TO 25 KT. WINDS WILL EASE
BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS MONDAY MORNING. SEAS INCREASE TO 6-7 FEET AT
8-9 SECONDS THIS EVENING BUT QUICKLY FALL BACK TO AROUND 5-6 FEET
BY MONDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK ARE
EXPECTED TO BE BENIGN. -19
PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 AM PDT MONDAY
FOR PZZ251-271.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 AM PDT MONDAY
FOR PZZ252-253-272-273.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
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