942  
FXUS66 KPQR 261030  
AFDPQR  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR  
330 AM PDT TUE MAR 26 2019  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
GENERALLY COOL AND SHOWERY WEATHER WILL PERSIST OVER  
NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON THIS WEEK EXCEPT FOR  
TUESDAY AND SATURDAY, WHICH WILL STAND THE BEST CHANCE OF ENDING UP  
DRY.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY
 
WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING  
WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION TODAY, WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO A MAINLY DRY  
DAY ACROSS THE AREA WITH TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT AROUND 60F. SURFACE  
LOW PRESSURE REMAINS WELL OFF THE SOUTHERN OREGON COAST AND WILL  
DUMBBELL AROUND ITSELF OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, EVENTUALLY  
MOVING CLOSE ENOUGH TO BRING A COLD FRONT AND ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN  
SPREADING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. RAIN  
TURNS TO SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND IT LOOKS  
LIKE THERE'S A BRIEF OPPORTUNITY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND BEFORE  
SUNSET WHEN THERE COULD BE A THUNDERSTORM IN THE AREA. MODELS ARE  
SHOWING A LITTLE BIT LESS INSTABILITY DURING THAT PERIOD YESTERDAY'S  
MODELS SHOWED, THOUGH, SO WILL KEEP IT OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW  
BASED ON THAT TREND. DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW, WE  
COULD SEE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT, BUT  
GENERALLY WE SHOULD SEE A REDUCTION OF RAIN CHANCES WITH THE LOSS OF  
DAYTIME HEATING. GENERALLY DECREASED POPS DURING THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT  
PERIOD WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE. WITH A COOL UPPER  
LEVEL TROUGH STILL OVERHEAD ON THURSDAY, WE SHOULD SEE SHOWER  
ACTIVITY INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND  
EARLY EVENING HOURS ONCE AGAIN. INSTABILITY LOOKS BETTER ON THURSDAY  
AFTERNOON, SO DID ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS, GENERALLY  
FROM THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY EAST. BOWEN  
 
   
LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
 
MODELS ARE IN GOOD  
AGREEMENT THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH BRINGING SHOWERS TO THE AREA ON  
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE SLOWLY EXITING THE REGION ON FRIDAY.  
THIS SHOULD BRING A BIT MORE SUNSHINE TO THE AREA, BUT THERE MAY YET  
BE ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHOWERS ON FRIDAY,  
PARTICULARLY FOR AREAS AWAY FROM THE COAST AND ACROSS THE HIGHER  
TERRAIN. MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLES ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT SHORTWAVE  
RIDGING WILL MOVE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SOMETIME SATURDAY. TOOK  
OUT ANY MENTIONABLE POPS FOR SATURDAY. THERE SHOULD BE A GOOD AMOUNT  
OF SUN WITH TEMPERATURES RISING AS HIGH AS THE UPPER 60S IN THE  
INTERIOR LOWLANDS. MODELS THEN SUGGEST THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL SHIFT  
EAST OF THE REGION SUNDAY AND OPEN THE DOOR TO INCREASINGLY MOIST  
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A FRONTAL STORM SYSTEM  
BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF COOL AND SHOWERY WEATHER TO THE AREA SUNDAY  
AND/OR MONDAY. LEFT POPS NEAR CLIMO SUNDAY, BUT CONFIDENCE IS  
INCREASING IN A WET SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY, SO UPPED POPS TO LIKELY.  
BOWEN/NEUMAN  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
SHOWERS OVER MOST OF THE AREA HAVE CEASED, WITH A FEW  
LINGERING SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST. EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS,  
BUT BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS TOWARDS SUNRISE CAN'T BE  
RULED OUT. IF FOG WERE TO DEVELOP, EXPECT IT TO BE SHALLOW,  
PATCHY, AND TO CLEAR BY 17Z. AFTER THE FOG CLEARS, VFR  
CONDITIONS RETURN AND WILL REMAIN THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.  
 
KPDX AND APPROACHES...SHOWERS HAVE CEASED OVER THE AREA. VFR  
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN THROUGH THIS EVENING. SOME MID  
LEVEL CLOUDS COULD PASS OVER THE AREA DURING THE EARLY MORNING  
HOURS, BUT THEY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 3000 FT AND SHOULD  
CLEAR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. /42  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE THIS MORNING, BUT HAVE  
DROPPED BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. A SURFACE LOW AND  
ASSOCIATED OCCLUDED FRONT WILL PASS OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.  
THIS OCCLUDED FRONT LOOKS TO BE A BIT STRONGER THAN THE SYSTEM  
ON MONDAY. THEREFORE, A NEW ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS  
SHOULD BE EXPECTED, WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR MARGINAL GALES.  
WINDS SUBSIDE SLIGHTLY ON THURSDAY, BUT WILL REMAIN ON THE GUSTY  
SIDE. THE WEEKEND HAS A THIRD FRONT MOVING INTO THE WATERS, BUT  
IT IS CURRENTLY FORECASTED TO BE WEAKER THAN THE PAST TWO FRONTS.  
 
SEAS CONTINUE TO HOVER AROUND 10 FT, AND ARE SUBSIDING. SEAS ARE  
EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA BY SUNRISE THIS  
MORNING, THEN REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.  
CHOPPY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS MULTIPLE SWELL  
TRAINS FROM THE WEST AND SOUTH WEST INTERACT WITH OCCASIONAL  
PERIODS OF HIGHER WIND WAVE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.  
/42  
 

 
   
PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
OR...NONE.  
WA...NONE.  
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 AM PDT EARLY  
THIS MORNING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO  
FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.  
 

 
 

 
 
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA:  
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND  
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND  
 
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON  
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THIS AREA IS  
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab OR Page
The Nexlab WA Page Main Text Page