717
FXUS66 KPQR 090506 AAA
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
1005 PM PDT MON JUN 8 2026
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
SYNOPSIS
COOL AND WET TO HOT AND DRY. THIS IS A SIMPLE,
CONCISE AND ACCURATE SUMMATION OF THE WEATHER CONDITIONS AS WE
PROGRESSES THROUGH THE NEXT 7-9 DAYS. TONIGHT WILL REMAIN RATHER
SOGGY AND COOL, WITH A VERY SLOW WARMING AND DRYING TREND EXPECTED
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE
FOR A MULTI-DAY HEAT EVENT IN THE JUNE 12TH THROUGH JUNE 16TH
TIMEFRAME. DON'T GET CAUGHT OFF GUARD AND START PREPARING FOR
HEAT RELATED IMPACTS, YOU'LL THANK YOURSELF LATER.
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
COOL, WET, AND SHOWERY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A UPPER
LEVEL LOW MOVES NORTHERLY OVER THE REGION. AS THE LOW MOVES OVER
THE REGION, SOUTHERLY WINDS LOOKS TO INCREASE WHICH COULD BRING
ISOLATED GUSTS UP TO 35-40 MPH FOR INLAND LOCATIONS FROM AROUND
4PM THROUGH 10PM. DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLES REMAIN
IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING TO HOLD OVER
THE REGION TUESDAY HELPING TO MAINTAIN A COOL AND SHOWERY WEATHER
PATTERN. GIVEN THAT MORE CLOUD BREAKS AND SLIGHTLY WARMER
DAYTIME (THINK LOW TO MID 60S FOR INLAND LOCATIONS) HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED ON TUESDAY, GENERAL INSTABILITY WILL ALSO INCREASE.
THUS THERE IS A 10-20% CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CWA
STARTING IN THE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE LATE EVENING. WEDNESDAY,
IS THE START OF THE NEXT MAJOR PATTERN CHANGE. THE LOW WHICH
HAS BEEN THE DOMINANT SYNOPTIC FEATURE FOR THE START OF THE
WEEK, WILL GET SLOWLY PUSHED EASTWARD BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
MOVING IN FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC. AS HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS,
DAYTIME HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE MID 50S TO MID 60S
ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE CASCADES, WITH INLAND DAYTIME HIGHS
REACHING INTO THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S.
AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION TOTALS CONCERNED, THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION IS SET TO END AROUND 5 AM PDT WEDNESDAY. QPF
AMOUNTS FROM THE DETERMINISTIC NBM DURING THIS 48-HOUR PERIOD
RANGE GENERALLY BETWEEN 0.5-1.0" OVER INLAND VALLEYS, AROUND 1"
AT THE COAST, AND 1-2" IN THE COAST RANGE, WILLAPA HILLS, AND
CASCADES. PROBABILITIES FOR OVER 0.5" OF RAIN HAVE SETTLED
AROUND 85-95%, AND PROBABILITIES FOR 1" OF RAIN OR MORE ARE
25-50% OVER THE CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY INTO PORTLAND METRO
(ONLY 10% NEAR EUGENE), AND 80-95% ALONG THE COAST, COAST RANGE,
WILLAPA HILLS, AND CASCADES. /42-99
LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
NOW THAT THE COOLER PART
OF THE WEEK HAS BEEN DISCUSSED, LETS LOOK AT THE WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST. AS MENTIONED ABOVE, AND
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE LOOKS TO SLOWLY BUILD OVER THE REGION FOR THE
LATTER PART OF THE WEEK AND REMAIN OVER THE PAC NW THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK. THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN
IS RESULTING IN MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A PROLONGED
MULTI-DAY HEAT WAVE BEGINNING ON SATURDAY.
HOWEVER, BEFORE THE HEAT KICKS IN, EXPECT RATHER PLEASANT
WEATHER ON THURSDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S FOR INLAND LOCATIONS AND , UPPER 60S TO
MID 70S FOR THE COAST AND CASCADES. FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK, MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLES SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AMPLIFYING OVER THE FAR NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC, WITH SOME LINGERING
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING EXACTLY HOW FAR EAST THE RIDGE AXIS WILL
MOVE. DESPITE THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE LOCATION OF THE RIDGE
AXIS, CONFIDENCE IS HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE HEATING UP
SIGNIFICANTLY JUNE 13-16. FOR SATURDAY, JUNE 13TH, THE NBM
PROBABILITIES FOR DAYTIME HIGHS ABOVE 90 DEGREES F IS 45-75%
FOR THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY. NBM PROBABILITIES FOR DAYTIME HIGHS
AT OR ABOVE 100 DEGREES F ON JUNE 14TH ARE 30-60% AND 20-70% ON
JUNE 15TH, WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES EACH DAY TOWARDS THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS (PORTLAND/VANCOUVER METRO) OF THE WILLAMETTE
VALLEY. ALSO, THERE IS A 10-20% CHANCE FOR DAYTIME HIGHS ON THE
14TH AND 15TH OF 105 DEGREES F OR HIGHER FOR LOCATIONS BETWEEN
SALEM, OR AND KALAMA, WA.
FOR REFERENCE, HEATRISK LEVELS ARE AS FOLLOWS:
LITTLE TO NONE, MINOR, MODERATE, HIGH AND EXTREME.
GIVEN THE LIKELY RECORD BREAKING DAYTIME HIGHS, PROBABILITIES
FOR A MODERATE HEATRISK OR HIGHER ON JUNE 13TH IS 70-85%, ON
JUNE 14TH AND 15TH IS 85-99%. FOR MAJOR HEATRISK OR HIGHER,
THERE IS A 40-75% PROBABILITY ON JUNE 14TH AND 25-70% ON JUNE
15TH. THE PROBABILITY FOR EXTREME HEATRISK ACROSS THE CWA IS 10%
OR LESS THROUGH JUNE 13TH THROUGH JUNE 15TH. ANYONE WHO IS
SENSITIVE TO HEAT OR THOSE WHO HAVE OUTDOOR PLANS SHOULD PAY
ATTENTION TO THE FORECAST OVER THE COMING DAYS AND BE PREPARED
FOR POTENTIAL EXTREME HEAT. THOSE PLANNING ON SWIMMING IN
RIVERS OR LAKES TO COOL OFF SHOULD BE MINDFUL OF COLD WATER
TEMPERATURES AND SWIFT CURRENTS, WHICH CAN BECOME LIFE
THREATENING.
TYPICALLY WITH THIS UPPER LEVEL PATTERN, A THERMALLY INDUCED
SURFACE TROUGH ALSO LOOKS TO ESTABLISH ITSELF SOMEWHERE WEST OF
THE CASCADE CREST, WHICH COULD RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS WITHIN THE
CASCADES AND WILLAMETTE VALLEY. AS DAYTIME HIGHS INCREASE,
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL ALSO DECREASE. THEREFORE, WITH
CONDITIONS DRYING OUT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS, THERE
ARE INCREASING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THE LATTER PART OF THIS
WEEK THROUGH THE START OF NEXT WEEK. SO, BE AWARE OF POTENTIAL
IGNITION SOURCES SUCH AS CHAINS DRAGGING ON THE PAVEMENT, HOT
VEHICLE COMPONENTS, AS WELL AS CIGARETTE BUTTS AS THESE COULD
EASILY RESULT IN THE IGNITION OF DRY, FINE FUELS. LARGER FUELS
MAY NOT HAVE THE TIME TO DRY OUT, BUT THIS IS A VARIABLE THAT IS
BEING CLOSELY MONITORED BY STATE AND FEDERAL FIRE PARTNERS. /42
AVIATION
RADAR IMAGERY AND TERMINAL OBSERVATIONS AS OF LATE
MONDAY EVENING DEPICT DECREASING RAIN ACROSS NORTHWEST OREGON AS
TODAY'S FRONTAL SYSTEM EXITS THE REGION. POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS WILL
LINGER THROUGH AT LEAST TUE MORNING, BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY
DRY OUT BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. VISIBILITY SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR FOR
MOST TERMINALS, BUT CAN'T RULE OUT BRIEF REDUCTIONS TO IFR/MVFR
DURING HEAVIER SHOWERS. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT LIFR/IFR CIGS
LINGER ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT THROUGH 17-19Z TUE. AFTERWARDS, THERE
IS A 20-40% CHANCE FOR MVFR CIGS OR LOWER AT ANY GIVEN HOUR ALONG
THE COAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. FOR INLAND
LOCATIONS, HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT CIGS TREND MOSTLY HIGH-END MVFR/LOW-
END VFR THROUGH TUE MORNING. THE NORTHERN OREGON COAST AND NORTHERN
WILLAMETTE VALLEY HAS A 10-15% CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 12-
21Z TUE. AFTER 18-21Z TUE, DRIER CONDITIONS WITH PREDOMINATELY VFR
CIGS RETURN ACROSS ALL INLAND TERMINALS.
WINDS REMAIN SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT ALONG
THE COAST AND 20 KT INLAND. WILL MAINTAIN THIS TREND HEADING INTO
TUESDAY, BUT WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TURN MORE WESTERLY IN THE
AFTERNOON BEHIND THE SYSTEM.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...TRENDING HIGH-END MVFR/LOW-END VFR THROUGH 18-
19Z TUE, THEN PREDOMINATELY VFR AFTER 19-20Z TUE. SHOWERS CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT, THEN CONDITIONS DRY OUT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT TURNING MORE
WESTERLY TUE AFTERNOON. -10
MARINE
A ROBUST FRONTAL SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TRAVERSE THE
COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON, BRINGING A PERIOD OF GALE-FORCE
GUSTS REACHING 30-40 KT SOUTH OF CAPE FALCON THROUGH 7 PM THIS
EVENING. OTHERWISE, RELATIVELY STEEP SEAS OF 7-10 FT AT 8-9
SECONDS WITH A DOMINANT WESTERLY SWELL ARE EXPECTED, WHILE
SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS OF 20-30 KT TURN OUT OF THE WEST BEHIND THE
FRONT THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS ACROSS THE WATERS AND INCLUDING
THE COLUMBIA RIVER BAR WILL THEREFORE REMAIN HAZARDOUS TO SMALL
CRAFT THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY.
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFFSHORE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK, WEST WINDS OF 5-10 KT ON WEDNESDAY WILL STEADILY SHIFT OUT
OF THE NORTH. TYPICAL SUMMERTIME NORTHERLIES WILL REACH DIURNAL
PEAKS OF 15-25 KT EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM THURSDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND, WHICH MAY NECESSITATE DAILY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES,
ESPECIALLY BEYOND 10 NM SOUTH OF CAPE FALCON. SEAS WILL PERSIST AT
4-7 FT AT 9-11 SECONDS WITH A CONTINUED WESTERLY SWELL. -36
PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR PZZ210-251>253-
271>273.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
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