942
FXUS66 KPQR 261030
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
330 AM PDT TUE MAR 26 2019
SYNOPSIS
GENERALLY COOL AND SHOWERY WEATHER WILL PERSIST OVER
NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON THIS WEEK EXCEPT FOR
TUESDAY AND SATURDAY, WHICH WILL STAND THE BEST CHANCE OF ENDING UP
DRY.
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY
WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING
WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION TODAY, WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO A MAINLY DRY
DAY ACROSS THE AREA WITH TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT AROUND 60F. SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE REMAINS WELL OFF THE SOUTHERN OREGON COAST AND WILL
DUMBBELL AROUND ITSELF OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, EVENTUALLY
MOVING CLOSE ENOUGH TO BRING A COLD FRONT AND ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN
SPREADING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. RAIN
TURNS TO SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND IT LOOKS
LIKE THERE'S A BRIEF OPPORTUNITY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND BEFORE
SUNSET WHEN THERE COULD BE A THUNDERSTORM IN THE AREA. MODELS ARE
SHOWING A LITTLE BIT LESS INSTABILITY DURING THAT PERIOD YESTERDAY'S
MODELS SHOWED, THOUGH, SO WILL KEEP IT OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW
BASED ON THAT TREND. DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW, WE
COULD SEE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT, BUT
GENERALLY WE SHOULD SEE A REDUCTION OF RAIN CHANCES WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. GENERALLY DECREASED POPS DURING THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
PERIOD WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE. WITH A COOL UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH STILL OVERHEAD ON THURSDAY, WE SHOULD SEE SHOWER
ACTIVITY INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS ONCE AGAIN. INSTABILITY LOOKS BETTER ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON, SO DID ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS, GENERALLY
FROM THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY EAST. BOWEN
LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH BRINGING SHOWERS TO THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE SLOWLY EXITING THE REGION ON FRIDAY.
THIS SHOULD BRING A BIT MORE SUNSHINE TO THE AREA, BUT THERE MAY YET
BE ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHOWERS ON FRIDAY,
PARTICULARLY FOR AREAS AWAY FROM THE COAST AND ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLES ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT SHORTWAVE
RIDGING WILL MOVE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SOMETIME SATURDAY. TOOK
OUT ANY MENTIONABLE POPS FOR SATURDAY. THERE SHOULD BE A GOOD AMOUNT
OF SUN WITH TEMPERATURES RISING AS HIGH AS THE UPPER 60S IN THE
INTERIOR LOWLANDS. MODELS THEN SUGGEST THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL SHIFT
EAST OF THE REGION SUNDAY AND OPEN THE DOOR TO INCREASINGLY MOIST
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A FRONTAL STORM SYSTEM
BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF COOL AND SHOWERY WEATHER TO THE AREA SUNDAY
AND/OR MONDAY. LEFT POPS NEAR CLIMO SUNDAY, BUT CONFIDENCE IS
INCREASING IN A WET SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY, SO UPPED POPS TO LIKELY.
BOWEN/NEUMAN
AVIATION
SHOWERS OVER MOST OF THE AREA HAVE CEASED, WITH A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST. EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS,
BUT BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS TOWARDS SUNRISE CAN'T BE
RULED OUT. IF FOG WERE TO DEVELOP, EXPECT IT TO BE SHALLOW,
PATCHY, AND TO CLEAR BY 17Z. AFTER THE FOG CLEARS, VFR
CONDITIONS RETURN AND WILL REMAIN THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...SHOWERS HAVE CEASED OVER THE AREA. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN THROUGH THIS EVENING. SOME MID
LEVEL CLOUDS COULD PASS OVER THE AREA DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS, BUT THEY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 3000 FT AND SHOULD
CLEAR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. /42
MARINE
SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE THIS MORNING, BUT HAVE
DROPPED BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. A SURFACE LOW AND
ASSOCIATED OCCLUDED FRONT WILL PASS OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
THIS OCCLUDED FRONT LOOKS TO BE A BIT STRONGER THAN THE SYSTEM
ON MONDAY. THEREFORE, A NEW ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS
SHOULD BE EXPECTED, WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR MARGINAL GALES.
WINDS SUBSIDE SLIGHTLY ON THURSDAY, BUT WILL REMAIN ON THE GUSTY
SIDE. THE WEEKEND HAS A THIRD FRONT MOVING INTO THE WATERS, BUT
IT IS CURRENTLY FORECASTED TO BE WEAKER THAN THE PAST TWO FRONTS.
SEAS CONTINUE TO HOVER AROUND 10 FT, AND ARE SUBSIDING. SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA BY SUNRISE THIS
MORNING, THEN REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
CHOPPY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS MULTIPLE SWELL
TRAINS FROM THE WEST AND SOUTH WEST INTERACT WITH OCCASIONAL
PERIODS OF HIGHER WIND WAVE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
/42
PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 AM PDT EARLY
THIS MORNING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THIS AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
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