794
FXUS66 KPQR 281054
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
354 AM PDT TUE APR 28 2026
SYNOPSIS
ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER THIS
MORNING WITH CHANCES FOR DRIZZLE ALONG THE COAST. CLOUDS SHOULD
LIFT AND BREAK OUT THIS AFTERNOON. DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER
RETURNING WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS.
A PASSING TROUGH AT THE END OF THE WEEK WILL BRING CHANCES FOR
LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE CASCADES, BUT EVERYWHERE ELSE REMAINS
DRY. FOR THOSE COOLING DOWN AT OUR LOCAL RIVERS LATER THIS
WEEK, BE AWARE OF COLD WATER SHOCK DUE TO COLD RIVER TEMPERATURES.
MAKE SURE TO PRACTICE COLD WATER SAFETY AND WEAR A LIFE VEST.
DISCUSSION...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY
SATELLITE IMAGERY AS OF
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING DEPICTS WIDESPREAD STRATUS ACROSS
NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MAINTAINS ONSHORE FLOW. SUFFICIENT LIFT FROM THIS
SHORTWAVE WILL ALSO SUPPORT CHANCES FOR LIGHT DRIZZLE ALONG THE
COAST THIS MORNING. LATER THIS AFTERNOON, INCREASED MIXING FROM
DAYTIME HEATING WILL ALLOW CLOUDS TO BREAK OUT AND RETURN SOME
SUN. AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE FORECAST NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TODAY DUE TO CLOUD COVER, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 60S ACROSS
INTERIOR VALLEYS AND MID 50S ALONG THE COAST. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND WESTERLY/NORTHWESTERLY TODAY, EXCEPT FOR
THE COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE AND UPPER HOOD RIVER VALLEY WHERE GUSTS
ARE FORECAST TO PEAK AROUND 25-30 MPH THIS AFTERNOON.
WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY, WARMER TEMPERATURES AND SUNNY SKIES
RETURN AS AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC
AND SHIFTS INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. 500MB HEIGHTS REMAIN
ELEVATED AND DRY AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION. HIGH CONFIDENCE
(>80% CHANCE) FOR TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING INTO THE UPPER 60S TO
LOW 70S BY WEDNESDAY AND UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 BY THURSDAY.
CHANCES FOR EXCEEDING 80 DEGREES ON THURSDAY ARE AROUND 50-70%
FOR THE PORTLAND/VANCOUVER METRO AREA, AND 15-25% FOR THE REST
OF THE I-5 CORRIDOR. HEATRISK REMAINS MINOR DUE TO SUFFICIENT
COOLING OVERNIGHT.
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, MOST DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE DEPICTS THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BREAKING DOWN AS A WEAK
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FROM CANADA. IT APPEARS
THAT THERE IS LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THIS TROUGH, SO
PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN AROUND 20-40% ACROSS THE CASCADES
AND LESS THAN 10% ELSEWHERE. TEMPERATURES COOL DOWN A FEW
DEGREES DURING THIS TIME, HOWEVER, WE'LL STILL BE SEASONABLY
WARM AS 500 MB HEIGHTS REMAIN ABOVE-AVERAGE OVER THE AREA
DESPITE THE PASSING TROUGH.
SUNDAY TO MONDAY, MOST ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HAVE THIS TROUGH MOVING
SOUTHWARD TOWARD CALIFORNIA AND BECOMING A CLOSED LOW, WHILE
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, CREATING
A REX-BLOCK PATTERN. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION CONTINUE OVER THE
CASCADES SINCE THERE MAY BE SOME WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE FROM THIS
LOW. 500 MB HEIGHTS ALSO INCREASE, SUGGESTING A RENEWED WARM-UP
OVER THE REGION. EVEN THIS FAR OUT, NBM GUIDANCE IS ALREADY
SUGGESTING HIGH CONFIDENCE (>90% CHANCE) THAT TEMPERATURES
EXCEED 80 DEGREES ALONG THE I-5 CORRIDOR ON SUNDAY. FOR MONDAY,
CHANCES FOR EXCEEDING 80 DEGREES ARE AROUND 50-80% ALONG THE I-5
CORRIDOR, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES ACROSS THE PORTLAND/VANCOUVER
METRO AREA. THOSE HEADING TO LOCAL RIVERS TO COOL OFF SHOULD
NOTE THAT RIVER TEMPERATURES REMAIN COLD AND CAN LEAD TO SHOCK.
MAKE SURE TO PRACTICE COLD WATER SAFETY AND WEAR A LIFE VEST.
-10
AVIATION
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND TERMINAL OBSERVATIONS AS OF
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING DEPICTS PREDOMINATELY LOW-END VFR STRATUS
WITH OCCASIONAL HIGH-END MVFR (2-3 KFT) STRATUS. GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS A 20-40% CHANCE FOR CIGS DROPPING TO MVFR AT ANY
GIVEN HOUR BETWEEN 12-18Z TUE ACROSS THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY.
MEANWHILE, CHANCES FOR MVFR CIGS ALONG THE COAST ARE SLIGHTLY
HIGHER, AROUND 40-60%. AFTER 18-21Z TUE, INCREASED MIXING FROM
DAYTIME HEATING WILL SUPPORT CIGS LIFTING TO PREDOMINATELY VFR
ACROSS THE REGION. WILL ALSO BEGIN TO SEE CLOUDS BREAKING UP
WITH SOME CLEARING. CALM TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL TURN NORTH- NORTHWESTERLY AROUND 5-10 KT FOR ALL
TERMINALS BY THE AFTERNOON.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...PREDOMINATELY LOW-END VFR (3-4 KFT) CIGS
WITH A 20-40% CHANCE FOR HIGH-END MVFR (2-3 KFT) CIGS AT ANY
GIVEN HOUR THROUGH 18Z TUE. AFTER 18Z TUE, INCREASED MIXING
WILL LEAD TO MORE MID TO HIGH LEVEL BROKEN CLOUD COVER.
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AROUND 4-6 KT. -10
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
ACROSS THE WATERS THIS WEEK, STRONGEST IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
WHEN PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE TIGHTEST. WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW 20 KT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. FROM WEDNESDAY
EVENING THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY, THERE IS A 70-90% CHANCE FOR AT
LEAST ISOLATED SMALL CRAFT WIND GUSTS UP TO 20-25 KT. THE
STRONGEST GUSTS WOULD MAINLY BE SOUTH OF CAPE FALCON AND OVER
THE OUTER WATERS (BEYOND 10 NM OFFSHORE). SEAS OF 6-8 FT PERSIST
THROUGH THE WEEK WITH A NORTHWESTERLY SWELL. LONG PERIODS OF
13-15 SECONDS MID WEEK WILL ALSO RESULT IN A MODERATE SNEAKER
WAVE THREAT FROM WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY. THOSE PARTICIPATING IN
RAZOR CLAM DIGS SHOULD TAKE EXTRA PRECAUTION. -10
PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
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