210
FXUS66 KPQR 271830 AAA
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
1130 AM PDT FRI MAR 27 2026
SYNOPSIS
DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S ALONG THE COAST AND 60S INLAND. RAIN CHANCES
RETURN LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS THE PATTERN BECOMES MORE ACTIVE. A
STRONGER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, BRINGING
SUBSTANTIAL RAIN AND THE POTENTIAL FOR IMPACTFUL CASCADE SNOW
THROUGH THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION...NOW THROUGH LATE THURSDAY
QUIET WEATHER
CONTINUES TODAY AND SATURDAY UNDER WEAK ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE
MID 50S AT THE COAST AND LOWER TO MID 60S INLAND. OVERNIGHT LOWS
EARLY THIS MORNING DIPPED INTO THE LOW 30S FOR A FEW LOCATIONS
WITH PATCHY FROST IN SHELTERED VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL
BE MILDER (MID TO UPPER 30S), REDUCING FROST CONCERNS HEADING
INTO THE WEEKEND.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES BEGINNING SUNDAY AS ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW SPREAD IN BOTH TEMPERATURES AND
PRECIPITATION TIMING. LIGHT RAIN MAY RETURN LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY AS A TROUGH DROPS SOUTHEAST FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS INITIAL SYSTEM STILL REMAINS
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME, WITH NBM GUIDANCE SUGGESTING 24 HOUR
RAINFALL TOTALS (5 PM SUN TO 5 PM MON) AROUND 0.0 TO 0.3 INCH
INLAND AND ALONG THE COAST, AND 0.0 TO 0.5 INCH IN THE COAST
RANGE AND CASCADES.
A MORE ORGANIZED AND POTENTIALLY IMPACTFUL SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS A STRONGER FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A PERIOD OF STEADY
RAINFALL, WITH INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD WETTING RAIN
ACROSS NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON (60-80% CHANCE).
CASCADE IMPACTS APPEAR MORE SIGNIFICANT WITH THIS MIDWEEK
SYSTEM. SNOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO AROUND 2500-3000 FT
BEHIND THE FRONT, BRINGING ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE CASCADE PASSES
AND GOVERNMENT CAMP WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. CURRENT ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE INDICATES A 20-40% CHANCE OF 12 INCHES OR MORE OF SNOW
IN 24 HOURS AT THE CASCADE PASSES AND GOVERNMENT CAMP (WINTER
STORM WARNING CRITERIA). PROBABILITIES FOR ADVISORY-LEVEL
SNOWFALL (6 INCHES OR MORE IN 24 HOURS) ARE HIGHER, AROUND
40-60%. WHILE DETAILS WILL CONTINUE TO BE REFINED, TRAVEL
THROUGH THE CASCADES DURING THIS PERIOD MAY BECOME HAZARDOUS.
CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE TO HIGH IN CONTINUED WET WEATHER THROUGH
THURSDAY, THOUGH IMPROVING DETAILS ON TIMING AND INTENSITY IS
EXPECTED OVER THE COMING DAYS. ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION IS
LIKELY TROUGH THURSDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INLAND,
MAINTAINING A COOL AND UNSETTLED PATTERN. PERIODS OF RAIN WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOWLANDS, WHILE CASCADE SNOW SHOWERS
PERSIST WITH CONTINUED TRAVEL IMPACTS POSSIBLE AT THE PASSES.
SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO EARLY FRIDAY BEFORE CONDITIONS GRADUALLY
BEGIN TO IMPROVE.
~12
AVIATION
ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. GUSTY
WINDS THROUGH THE COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE INTO KTTD WITH GUSTS AROUND
20-25 KT EXCEPT ABOVE 2000 FT WHERE GUSTS UP TO 40 KT ARE
POSSIBLE. WHILE MOST OTHER TERMINALS WILL LIKELY STAY NORTHERLY
TO NORTHWESTERLY UNDER 10 KT, COASTAL TERMINALS WILL SEE INCREASED
WINDS OF AROUND 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20-25 KT AFTER 19Z FRI,
PERSISTING THROUGH THE EVENING.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...NO CONCERNS. NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE
PERIODS WITH VFR CIGS/VIS. EASTERLY WINDS AROUND 2000 FT MAY GUST
UP TO 30 KT, BUT GIVEN THE LACK OF VERTICAL PROFILE, HAVE EMOTED
LLWS. -27
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WITH A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER
LIKE PATTERN OF NORTHERLY WINDS AND NORTHWESTERLY SEAS. OVERALL
WILL SEE LOW END SMALL CRAFT WINDS OVER ALL OF THE WATERS WITH
BUOY 46029 ALREADY STARTING TO PICK UP. THESE WINDS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE EVENING BEFORE EASING BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. SEAS
WILL SEE MINIMAL CHANGE, RISING TO 6-9 FT AT 11 SECONDS. THE NEXT
SYSTEM OF CONCERN ARISES ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WHEN WE
START TO SEE A PATTERN SHIFT AS A WEAK FRONT NEARS THE AREA. WINDS
AGAIN BEGIN TO INCREASE ON MONDAY LEADING TO ANOTHER PERIOD OF
LOW END SMALL CRAFT WINDS. -27
PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ252-253.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT PDT TONIGHT FOR PZZ271.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ272-273.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
X.COM/NWSPORTLAND
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