134
FXUS66 KPQR 152152
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
252 PM PDT FRI MAY 15 2026
SYNOPSIS
SHOWERS CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING AS A WEAK
FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING
WILL MAINTAIN SHOWERS WITH SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES THROUGH
SATURDAY, AS WELL AS A 10-25% CHANCE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.
COOLER TEMPS WILL ALSO BRING SNOW LEVELS DOWN TO 3500-4000 FEET,
ALLOWING FOR LIGHT SNOW ALONG THE CASCADE PASSES TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER RETURNS SUNDAY THROUGH
NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE RE-BUILDS.
DISCUSSION...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY
RADAR IMAGERY AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS AS OF EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON DEPICTS WIDESPREAD
RAIN MOVING THROUGH SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND FAR NORTHWEST
OREGON (MAINLY FROM LINCOLN CITY/SALEM NORTHWARD) AS AN UPPER-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT SWINGS
THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS HAVE
ALSO PICKED UP WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH GUSTS UP TO 20-25 MPH ALONG
THE I-5 CORRIDOR AND 25-40 MPH ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AND
EXPOSED RIDGETOPS.
LOOKING AT SATELLITE IMAGERY, IT APPEARS WE'LL TRANSITION POST-
FRONTAL CONDITIONS BY THE LATE AFTERNOON AS CLOUD COVER APPEARS
THE BREAK UP BEHIND THE FRONT JUST OFFSHORE. COLDER AIR ALOFT
BEHIND THE FRONT AND POTENTIAL SURFACE HEATING FROM CLOUD BREAKS
WILL INCREASE ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THEREFORE, THERE IS A 10-25% CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH 11 PM THIS EVENING ACROSS NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES ALONG THE SOUTH WASHINGTON
COAST AND WILLAPA HILLS. ANY PASSING THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE
LIGHTNING, HEAVY DOWNPOURS, ERRATIC WINDS, AND/OR SMALL HAIL.
SHOWERY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AS BROAD UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGHING PROGRESSES THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
ANOTHER IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE SNOW LEVELS FALLING TO
3500-4500 FEET (LOWEST ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
CASCADES). OROGRAPHICS OF THE COAST RANGE AND CASCADES WILL
LIKELY ENHANCE PRECIPITATION AS WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
PERSISTS. THIS MAY LEAD TO SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW, ESPECIALLY
ABOVE 3500 FEET INCLUDING THE CASCADE PASSES. LATEST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THERE IS ANYWHERE FROM A 30-50% CHANCE OF EXCEEDING 6
INCHES OF SNOW IN A 24-HR PERIOD ENDING 5 AM SUNDAY ALONG THE
CASCADE PASSES, HIGHEST NEAR GOVERNMENT CAMP. IF PLANNING ON
TRAVELING TO THE CASCADES, MAKE SURE TO CHECK THE LATEST
FORECAST, REFER TO ODOT/WSDOT FOR THE LATEST ROAD CONDITIONS,
AND PACK AN EMERGENCY SUPPLY KIT. CONSIDERING MANY OF THE FOREST
ROADS ARE FREE OF SNOW FROM THE EARLY MELT-OUT AND ACCESS TO
UNMAINTAINED ROADS IS GROWING, THE LOWER SNOW LEVELS MAY CATCH
PEOPLE OFF GUARD IF THEY ARE UNPREPARED FOR COLD, WET, AND EVEN
SNOWY CONDITIONS.
AFTER SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES TODAY AND SATURDAY, EXPECT A
WARMING TREND TO RETURN SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS EAST, EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE TO RETURN
BACK OVER THE REGION. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS IS GENERAL AGREEMENT
THAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE NE PACIFIC. BUT, THERE
REMAINS UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW FAR EAST THE RIDGE PROGRESSES
TOWARD THE PACNW. THE FARTHER EAST THE RIDGE DOES SHIFT OVER THE
PACIFIC NW, TEMPERATURES ARE MORE LIKELY TO SEE HIGHER END
AMOUNTS, MID TO UPPER 70S BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. IF THE
REGION STAYS UNDER MORE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT, AFTERNOON
TEMPS WOULD BE MORE LIKELY TO REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S. THE MAJORITY OF ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE DOES RETURN TO MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS FOR NEXT WEEK. -10/DH
AVIATION
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AIRSPACE THOUGH
THERE ARE SIGNS OF A DOWNWARD TREND AS THE COLD FRONT CREEPS
CLOSER TO THE FORECAST AREA. AREAS OF MVFR CONDITIONS HAVE
DEVELOPED ALONG THE COAST, MAINLY KAST, AND ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSISTS WELL INTO THE EVENING. CHANCES FOR MVFR CONDITIONS
INLAND INCREASE TO 20-40% FOR ANY GIVEN HOUR AFTER 00Z
SATURDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF
THE TAF PERIOD. ANY SHOWERS THAT PASSE DIRECTLY OVER A TERMINAL
COULD DROP CONDITIONS BELOW VFR BRIEFLY. WESTERLY WINDS ALONG
THE COAST AND SOUTHWESTERLY INLAND WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KT
POSSIBLE THROUGH 03-06Z SATURDAY.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD, THOUGH CHANCES FOR MVFR INCREASE THIS
EVENING TO AROUND 20-30% AS RAIN SHOWERS INCREASE ACROSS THE
AREA. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 8-11 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT
THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING. -19
MARINE
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA, SUPPORTING LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE ALONG WITH A WEAK COLD
FRONT. WESTERLY FLOW WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY. WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE WITH THE
APPROACHING FRONT, SUPPORTING GUSTS UP TO 25 KT ACROSS PZZ271,
PZZ251, PZZ272 AND THE COLUMBIA RIVER BAR. WIND GUSTS EXPAND TO
THE REMAINING MARINE ZONES (PZZ252, PZZ273, AND PZZ253)
OVERNIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY BEGINS THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
FIRST ROUND OF ZONES AND EXPANDS TO THE REST OF THE SOUTHERN
ZONES AT 5 AM ON SATURDAY.A WESTERLY SWELL WILL INCREASE SEAS TO
10-12 FEET AT 11-13 SECONDS TONIGHT. VERY STRONG EBB CURRENTS
ACROSS THE COLUMBIA RIVER BAR EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WILL
SHORTEN THE WAVE PERIOD AND RESULT IN STEEPER SEAS.
NORTHERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS RETURN SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK WHILE SEAS EASE TO AROUND 4 TO 8 FT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OFFSHORE. STRONG CURRENTS DURING MORNING EBB TIDES WILL CONTINUE
DAILY THROUGH THURSDAY, POTENTIALLY YIELDING STEEP AND
HAZARDOUS SEAS FOR SMALL CRAFT CROSSING AREA BARS THROUGH MUCH
OF THE WEEK. -19/DH
PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM PDT SUNDAY
FOR PZZ210-251-271-272.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM SATURDAY TO 2 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR
PZZ252-253-273.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA:
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