212
FXUS66 KPQR 212113
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
213 PM PDT THU MAY 21 2026
SYNOPSIS
DRY AND WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NE PACIFIC
SPREADING EAST OVER THE PACIFIC NW. RAIN, COOLER TEMPERATURES,
AND SLIGHTLY ELEVATED WINDS RETURN TO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK, WHICH COULD IMPACT ANY OUTDOOR MEMORIAL DAY
PLANS.
DISCUSSION...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
THERE HAS BEEN VERY
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST SINCE THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. TODAY
IS STILL SHAPING UP TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK.
TEMPERATURE OBSERVATIONS AT NOON WERE AROUND 70-74 DEGREES FOR
MOST INTERIOR LOWLAND LOCATIONS, WHICH IS RIGHT ON TRACK FOR
HIGH TEMPERATURES TO PEAK IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. THE DAILY
NORMAL TEMPERATURE FOR TODAY IS AROUND 69-71 DEGREES ACROSS THE
WILLAMETTE VALLEY, SO TODAY'S HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
BE AROUND 10-15 DEGREES WARMER THAN NORMAL. HOWEVER, NO RECORD
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BREAK AS RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID-90S THROUGH
THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES AT NOON ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST WERE MUCH COOLER, IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S DUE
TO LINGERING MARINE STRATUS. AS THAT DISSIPATES THROUGH THE
EARLY AFTERNOON, COASTAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK IN
THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE JUST A FEW DEGREES COOLER
THAN TODAY, GENERALLY RIGHT AROUND 80 DEGREES FOR THE INLAND
VALLEYS. THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ON FRIDAY BECOMES MORE
ZONAL ALOFT SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. EXPECT A SLIGHT COOLING TREND
IN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BUT STILL LIKELY TO REMAIN
ABOVE SEASONABLE AVERAGES IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
THERE REMAINS GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SUNDAY WILL REMAIN MAINLY DRY AND
WARM, THOUGH COULD BEGIN TO SEE INCREASING CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING WEATHER SYSTEM. THERE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS THAT A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL PUSH INTO THE PACNW
SOMETIME LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, WITH CHANCES OF RAIN
INCREASING FOR MONDAY, FOLLOWED BY SHOWERS INTO TUESDAY. SOME
UNCERTAINTY STILL REMAINS IN THE GENERAL TIMING OF RAIN AS WELL
AS RAIN TOTALS, BUT LATEST CONSENSUS IS THAT RAIN WILL HOLD OFF
UNTIL AT LEAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG THE FAR N OR AND SW WA
COAST, THEN SPREAD SOUTHEAST MONDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH
THAT THIS WILL BE NON-IMPACTFUL RAIN. WHEN LOOKING AT THE
PROBABILITY OF REACHING OR EXCEEDING 0.5 INCH FOR 48 HOUR RAIN
TOTALS THROUGH 5 AM WEDNESDAY, THERE'S A 10-20% CHANCE FOR THE
WILLAMETTE VALLEY, 20-40% FOR THE PORTLAND AND VANCOUVER METRO
AREA AND SW WA LOWLANDS, 45-65% FOR THE COAST AND COAST RANGE,
AND 50-70% FOR THE CASCADES. HOWEVER, SOME ELEVATED WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE ON MONDAY AS THE FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA.
THERE'S A 60-80% CHANCE OF PEAK GUSTS OF AT LEAST 25 MPH AND
ABOUT A 20-40% CHANCE OF PEAK GUSTS OF AT LEAST 30 MPH. THESE
AREN'T HIGH ENOUGH GUSTS FOR ANY WIND ADVISORY CONCERNS, BUT
THEY COULD CAUSE IMPACTS TO ANY TENTS THAT MIGHT BE IN PLACE FOR
OUTDOOR HOLIDAY ACTIVITIES.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO DROP SUBSTANTIALLY MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S FOR THE INTERIOR
LOWLANDS. CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO REBOUND BACK TO SEASONABLE
NORMALS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, THOUGH SOME UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS DUE TO CONTINUED LOW CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION. -03/DH
AVIATION
SATELLITE IMAGERY AS OF EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON SHOWS
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION EXCEPT FOR SOME MARINE
STRATUS HUGGING THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST. THIS IS BRINGING LIFR
CIGS TO KONP WITH BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN VIS. EXPECT THIS MARINE
STRATUS TO LINGER ALONG WITH THIS PART OF THE COAST WHILE THE
NORTH OREGON COAST (INCLUDING KAST) REMAINS VFR THROUGH THIS
EVENING. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS WITH CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL FOR
WILLAMETTE VALLEY TERMINALS AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD.
TONIGHT, MARINE STRATUS WILL RE-DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST AND LEAD
TO A 40-60% CHANCE FOR IFR/MVFR CIGS OR LOWER RETURNING TO KAST
BETWEEN 09-17Z FRI. NORTHERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE TODAY
WITH GUSTS UP TO 20-25 KT ALONG THE COAST AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
WILLAMETTE VALLEY THROUGH 03-04Z FRI. ELSEWHERE, WINDS GENERALLY
UNDER 10 KT. WINDS WEAKEN OVERNIGHT AS PRESSURE GRADIENTS EASE.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR WITH CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS 5-10 KT. NO IMPACTS EXPECTED. -10
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL MAINTAIN BREEZY NORTHERLY
WINDS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING PERIODS AS THE SURFACE
THERMAL TROUGH STRENGTHENS OVER THE NORTHERN CA/SOUTHERN OR COAST.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS UP TO 25-30 KT
REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE FALCON THROUGH 11 PM
FRIDAY, AND THROUGH 5 AM FRIDAY FOR THE WATERS NORTH OF CAPE
FALCON AND BEYOND 10 NM OFFSHORE. SEAS 6 TO 9 FEET ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS ALL WATERS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. THE SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN IS
EXPECTED TO BREAK DOWN SUNDAY NIGHT AS A FRONT APPROACHES THE
WATERS. THIS SYSTEM WILL RETURN BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND A
WESTERLY SWELL THAT WILL LIKELY (60-80% CHANCE) BUILD SEAS ABOVE
10 FT BY MONDAY. -10/DH
PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PDT TODAY FOR PZZ210.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR PZZ252-253-
271>273.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
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