744  
FXUS66 KPQR 130954  
AFDPQR  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR  
252 AM PDT THU JUN 13 2024  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE MAINTAINS SEASONABLY WARM AND  
DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE THEN BRINGS COOL  
AND SHOWERY WEATHER FRIDAY INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK,  
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.  
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REBOUND NEAR OR ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS LATER  
NEXT WEEK.  
 
KEY MESSAGES...  
 
- INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW LATER THIS AFTERNOON.  
 
- COOLER, WITH INCREASING CLOUDS FOR FRIDAY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS  
ALONG THE COAST (TILLAMOOK NORTHWARD) AND WEST WASHINGTON.  
 
- COOL, WITH SHOWERS FOR SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. A SMALL  
CHANCE (15-25%) OF AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ON SAT.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
 
NOT MUCH CHANGE THIS  
MORNING, AS STILL HAVE HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND DRY NORTH TO  
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. OVERALL, ANOTHER PLEASANT MID-JUNE DAY ON TAP  
FOR THE REGION TODAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S ALONG THE COAST, AND MID  
70S FOR INLAND VALLEYS. A FEW SPOTS IN THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY MAY  
REACH 80 THIS AFTERNOON. BUT, NOT ALL THAT SOLD ON THAT POSSIBILITY.  
MAIN REASON WILL BE THE INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW THIS AFTERNOON.  
ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL TIGHTEN THIS AFTERNOON, AS SURFACE  
HIGH OFFSHORE MOVES TOWARD THE COAST. THIS WILL INCREASING THE COOLER  
MARINE AIR INVASION THROUGH THE GAPS IN THE COAST RANGE AND WILLAPA  
HILLS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. SO, TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY  
PEAK IN THE 2 TO 4 PM TIMEFRAME, THEN DROP BACK A BIT AS THE MARINE  
AIR SPREADS INTO THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS.  
 
MAY BE BREEZY IN THE USUAL SPOTS IN THE WESTERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY AS  
THE MARINE AIR SPREADS INLAND. SUCH SPOTS LIKE THE PHILOMATH GAP, VAN  
DUZER CORRIDOR, SIUSLAW RIVER GAP TO WEST OF EUGENE, WILL SEE GUSTY  
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS LATER THIS AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTS 20-25 MPH  
FOR A TIME. IN ADDITION, WILL SEE UP TICK OF WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS  
(THOUGH NOT AS STRONG) ALONG THE COLUMBIA RIVER FROM PORTLAND TO  
KELSO. BREEZY WEST WINDS LIKELY IN THE MID-COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE FROM  
BONNEVILLE EASTWARD AS WELL LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT.  
 
EXPECT A PATTERN SHIFT BACK TOWARDS COOLER AND CLOUDIER WEATHER  
ON FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE GULF OF  
ALASKA DESCENDS UPON THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS WILL DROP  
TEMPERATURES BACK NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMS WITH  
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S OR LOW 70S AND ALSO BRING A CHANCE OF  
SHOWERS AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. SHOWER CHANCES  
LOOK TO BE GENERALLY CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF A  
LINCOLN CITY-PORTLAND-MT ST HELENS LINE THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING  
BEFORE MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA  
FRIDAY NIGHT. MODEL QPF REMAINS ON THE LIGHT SIDE, RANGING FROM  
0.25 TO 0.50" OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN, BUT GENERALLY A TENTH OF AN  
INCH OR LESS FOR ALL OTHER LOCATIONS FOR FRI THROUGH SAT AM.  
   
LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
 
WPC ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS  
REMAIN IN STRONG AGREEMENT ON MAINTAINING UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING  
AND A RESULTING COOL, CLOUDY AND SHOWERY PATTERN OVER THE  
PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS WEEKEND THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT  
WEEK. THIS IS REFLECTED IN ENSEMBLE TEMPERATURE FORECASTS WHICH  
KEEP THE AREA BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S THROUGH AT  
LEAST MONDAY. COLD AIR ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN SHOWERY CONDITIONS  
INTO TUESDAY, THOUGH THESE LOOK TO BE MAINLY SPOTTY IN NATURE  
WITH MODEL QPF AMOUNTS REMAINING LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD.  
GUIDANCE INDICATES A 15-25 PERCENT CHANCE FOR A FEW RUMBLES OF  
THUNDER ACROSS THE NORTH BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON,  
WHICH WILL LARGELY BE DEPENDENT ON IF THERE ARE ENOUGH SUN  
BREAKS TO ALLOW FOR ADEQUATE DESTABILIZATION. TEMPERATURES LOOK  
TO REBOUND INTO THE 70S NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE  
MAJORITY OF ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS DEPICT THE TROUGH STARTING TO  
SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION BY MIDWEEK. /CB  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO DOMINATE, WITH FAIRLY CLEAR  
CLOUD COVER FOR MOST TERMINALS. THE SOUTHERN COASTAL TERMINALS  
(KONP) SEE A 10-30% CHANCE OF SOME LOW SCATTERED CLOUD COVER  
DEVELOPING IN THE LATTER HALF OF THE NIGHT, CLEARING BY 20Z THU.  
REGARDLESS, NO CHANCE FOR MVFR CEILINGS AS THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE  
SCATTERED AND PATCHY CLOUD COVER.  
 
LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IS IN PLACE, WITH WINDS GENERALLY BELOW 7  
KTS AT ALL TERMINALS. WINDS PICK UP SLIGHTLY THROUGH THURSDAY  
AFTERNOON, WITH TOP WINDS UP TO 25KT INLAND AND 30KT AT THE COAST.  
THESE WILL DECREASE BY 05Z THU, BECOMING FAIRLY LIGHT AFTERWARDS.  
/JLIU  
 
PDX AND APPROACHES...PREDOMINANTLY VFR AND CLEAR SKIES THROUGHOUT  
THE TAF PERIOD. WEAK NORTHWESTERLY WINDS UP TO 7 KTS CURRENTLY,  
INCREASING AROUND 17-18Z THU. THESE PEAK IN THE EVENING, WITH  
NORTHWESTERLY GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS POSSIBLE AROUND THAT TIME. WINDS  
DECREASE AGAIN GOING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT BACK TO WEAK WINDS. /JLIU  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
WIND-DRIVEN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES UNTIL  
THURSDAY NIGHT FOR THE INNER AND OUTER WATERS. SEAS ARE CURRENTLY  
AROUND 7-9 FEET AT 9 SECONDS, WITH NORTHERLY WINDS GUSTING UP TO  
25 UNTIL THURSDAY EVENING, WHEN THEY BEGIN TO DECREASE. WINDS  
DECREASE ENOUGH TO END THE SCA AT THAT TIME. SEAS WILL HAVE  
SETTLED TO 5 TO 7 FT AROUND THIS TIME, BUT MAY REMAIN CHOPPY. NEXT  
FRONT WILL ARRIVE LATE FRIDAY, SHIFTING WINDS BACK TO WESTERLY AT  
10 TO 15 KT FOR LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY.  
-JH/JLIU  
 

 
   
PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
OR...NONE.  
WA...NONE.  
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR  
PZZ251>253-271>273.  

 
 

 
 
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND  
 
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA:  
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND  
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND  
 
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