787
FXUS66 KPQR 082120
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
220 PM PDT FRI MAY 8 2026
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND, KEEPING MOST LOCATIONS DRY WITH TEMPERATURES MOSTLY
CONTROLLED BY REOCCURRING MARINE CLOUD DEVELOPMENT. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE SUNDAY WILL KNOCK TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT. EARLY NEXT
WEEK TRENDS WARMER AGAIN, THOUGH CONFIDENCE DROPS QUICKLY ON
JUST HOW WARM IT GETS BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION...NOW THROUGH THURSDAY
LOW STRATUS THAT COVERED
MANY AREAS EARLIER TODAY HAS ALREADY MIXED OUT, AND INLAND
LOCATIONS ARE NOW SEEING A BRIGHTER AND WARMER AFTERNOON. EVEN
SO, TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK A TAD COOLER THAN FORECASTED. THE
COAST IS A DIFFERENT STORY, WITH CLOUDS STILL HOLDING ACROSS
SOME OF THE SHORELINE, KEEPING TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES
COOLER. THIS COAST TO INLAND CONTRAST SHOULD PERSIST INTO THIS
EVENING AS MARINE AIR REMAINS IN PLACE NEAR THE SURFACE, BUT THE
BIGGER POINT IS THAT THE DAY REMAINS DRY.
EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO REBUILD THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AND
EXPAND INLAND, THEN GRADUALLY ERODE BACK TOWARD THE COAST LATE
MORNING INTO AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FAVOR SOMEWHAT
BETTER AFTERNOON CLEARING FOR INLAND VALLEYS COMPARED TO EARLIER
IN THE WEEK AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS OVERHEAD, WHICH SUPPORTS
WARMER HIGHS MOST DAYS. FOR SATURDAY, EXPECT AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S ALONG THE COAST AND
HIGHER TERRAIN, WITH INLAND VALLEYS GENERALLY LOW 70S TO
POSSIBLY 80.
SUNDAY (MOTHER'S DAY) BRINGS A SUBTLE CHANGE AS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE SLIDES THROUGH. THE MOST NOTICEABLE EFFECT SHOULD BE
AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND A SLIGHT COOL-DOWN, BUT THE DAY
STILL LOOKS FAVORABLE FOR OUTDOOR PLANS. INLAND HIGHS SHOULD
GENERALLY HOLD IN THE LOW TO MID 70S, WHILE THE COAST AND HIGHER
TERRAIN REMAIN IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. OVERALL, CONDITIONS
REMAIN DRY.
HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE INCREASINGLY
SUPPORTS RIDGING REBUILDING AND TEMPERATURES TRENDING UPWARD
AGAIN. WHERE THE RIDGE AXIS SETS UP WILL MATTER: A FARTHER-WEST
SOLUTION FAVORS A STRONGER WARM-UP LOCALLY, WHILE A MORE INLAND
PLACEMENT WOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES ELEVATED BUT LESS EXTREME.
TUESDAY REMAINS THE MAIN DAY OF CONCERN FROM A FORECAST-
CONFIDENCE STANDPOINT, AS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW LARGE
SPREAD IN THE RESULTING HIGH TEMPERATURE. AT THIS RANGE,
POTENTIAL OUTCOMES SPAN FROM "PLEASANTLY WARM" TO "UNSEASONABLY
HOT", WITH VALLEY HIGHS ANYWHERE FROM THE LOW 70S INTO THE LOW
90S STILL ON THE TABLE. CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL WARMING TREND
AND IN THE EXACT MAGNITUDE REMAINS LOW. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
DIVERGE ON HOW PROGRESSIVE THE PATTERN BECOMES BY MIDWEEK, WHICH
IS WHY TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY HIGHS STILL HAVE A WIDE RANGE OF
TEMPERATURE VALUES. WHILE THE TEMPERATURE SPREAD BECOMES
NARROWER BY THURSDAY, IT STILL HIGHLY DEPENDS ON THE PROGRESSION
OF THE PATTERN NEXT WEEK. ~12
AVIATION
MARINE STRATUS HAS REALLY DISSIPATED THIS AFTERNOON
INLAND, THOUGH COASTAL AREAS REMAIN CLOUD NORTH OF KONP. OVERALL,
MOST TERMINALS ARE VFR WITH A FEW POCKETS OF HIGH END MVFR ALONG
THE COAST. THIS TREND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT 8 HOURS OR SO
AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE REGION. OVERNIGHT
MODELS ARE STILL STRUGGLING TO GET A GRASP ON EXACTLY WHAT WE CAN
EXPECT. THERE ARE SEVERAL POSSIBLE OUTCOMES, BUT BASED ON
CLIMATOLOGY, THE PATTERN, AND SOME OF OUR HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS
THERE WILL BE A MIXTURE OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES. STRATUS DEVELOPMENT
IS STILL POSSIBLE TONIGHT THOUGH LIKELY IT WILL BE HIGH LEVEL FOR
MOST LOCATIONS ASIDE FROM THE SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND
COAST.
AROUND 10Z SAT, MODELS ARE SUGGESTING ANYWHERE FROM A 30-50%
CHANCE OF MVFR TO HIGH END IFR CIGS FROM KEUG TO KSLE WITH IT
DISSIPATING BY 18Z SAT. IN CONJUNCTION, THERE IS AROUND A 20-30%
CHANCE OF IFR VIS AROUND KEUG AND KONP. THIS EFFECT WOULD BE FROM
RADIATIONAL COOLING TODAY IF SKIES REMAIN CLEAR OR THIN ENOUGH
OVERNIGHT. THE TRANSITION TO NORTHERLY WINDS WILL ALSO SUPPORT
THIS PROCESS.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
OVERNIGHT, CONFIDENCE DECREASES ON WHETHER VFR OR MVFR CIGS WILL
DOMINATE. AT THIS POINT THERE ARE AROUND EQUAL CHANCES FOR BOTH
OUTCOMES. THERE IS AROUND A 20% CHANCE OF IFR CIGS AS EARLY AS 12Z
SAT BUT WOULD BE SHORT LIVED IF IT DOES FORM. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CAUSE THE ENVIRONMENT TO CLEAR OUT THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY.
-27
MARINE
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OVER THE WATERS TODAY WILL
TRANSITION TO THE NORTH AS HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS ON SATURDAY.
OVERALL WILL SEE WINDS OF 6 TO 10 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 18 KT. THE
HIGHEST WINDS WILL BE IN THE CENTRAL WATERS OF PZZ253/273 WITH A
20% CHANCE OF SEEING GUSTS UP TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS. SEAS
WILL REACH AROUND 4 TO 6 FT AT 12 SECONDS. SIMILAR CONDITIONS
PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY.
THERE IS A SHIFT ON MONDAY AS THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC. CONFIDENCE
IS LOW AT THIS POINT AS THERE ARE A NUMBER OF POTENTIAL OUTCOMES.
HOWEVER, AT THIS TIME, WE ARE EXPECTING THE NORTHERLY WINDS TO
PERSIST AND INTENSIFY ON MONDAY WITH A TREND TOWARDS SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVEL SPEEDS THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WOULD BE AMPLIFIED BY
A SURFACE RIDGE FORMING AND THUS SEEING A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
NORTHERLY WIND SPEED PARADIGM. -27
PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
X.COM/NWSPORTLAND
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page