659
FXUS66 KPQR 292000
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
100 PM PDT TUE SEP 29 2026
SYNOPSIS
A FRONTAL SYSTEM CONTINUES IMPACTING THE REGION WITH
GUSTY WINDS AND SHOWERS FOR FAR NORTHERN OREGON AND SW
WASHINGTON. DRY WEATHER IS FAVORED AGAIN BY WEDNESDAY, LIKELY
LASTING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING WARMER
DAY TO DAY.
DISCUSSION...TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
A FRONTAL
SYSTEM CONTINUES MOVING SOUTHEAST TOWARD SW WA AND NW OR THIS
AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25-35 MPH HAVE BEEN
OBSERVED THIS MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON,
MAINLY FOR THE COAST NORTH OF LINCOLN COUNTY AND ADJACENT
TERRAIN AS WELL AS FOR THE FAR NORTHERN OR CASCADES. SHOWERS ARE
ALSO OCCURRING IN THE SAME AREA AND PORTIONS OF THE SW WA
LOWLANDS NORTH OF THE VANCOUVER METRO. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
INLAND THIS EVENING, WINDS AND SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY DECREASE.
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND
THAT DRY WEATHER RETURNS ON WEDNESDAY AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
AT LEAST SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL
MOVE INLAND OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS THEN PEAK OVER THE PACNW ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO A WARMING TREND FOR THE
AREA THROUGH THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY FOR LOCATIONS THAT SEE CLOUD COVER
TODAY, WITH ANOTHER FEW DEGREES OF WARMING FOR THURSDAY. THE
INTERIOR LOWLAND ARE EXPECTED SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO
MID 70S TOMORROW AND THE MID TO UPPER 70S FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES THEN WARM TO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S FOR
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY FOR THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS, WITH UPPER 60S TO
LOW 70S ALONG THE COAST AND TERRAIN. BY MONDAY, THE VAST
MAJORITY OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INDICATE THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST
OF WA AND OR, ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO BEGIN LOWERING AGAIN INTO
THE 70S FOR THE INTERIOR VALLEYS WITH DRY WEATHER CONTINUING.
ENSEMBLES INDICATE A THERMAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
COAST AT THE SURFACE UNDER THE HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT FRIDAY
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE WINDS
TO SHIFT FROM THE ONSHORE (WESTERLY) PATTERN THE AREA HAS
GENERALLY BEEN OBSERVING OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS TO
OFFSHORE (EASTERLY TO NORTHERLY). AT THIS TIME, PRESSURE
GRADIENTS DON'T LOOK TO BE VERY HIGH, SO WINDS AREN'T EXPECTED
TO BE STRONG. INSTEAD, EXPECT TO SEE A TYPICAL DIURNAL BEHAVIOR
OF WINDS BECOMING EASTERLY ON THE WEST SIDE OF TERRAIN IN THE
OVERNIGHT TO MORNING HOURS AND INCREASING TO PEAK GUSTS UP TO
20-25 MPH. THEN, WINDS DECREASE OVER THE TERRAIN DURING THE DAY
AND INCREASE THROUGH THE VALLEY FROM THE NORTH IN THE AFTERNOON
HOURS, ALSO PEAK GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH. THE PROBABILITY OF WIND
GUSTS PEAKING ABOVE 30 MPH IS LESS THAN 10% EVERYWHERE EXCEPT
FOR THROUGH THE WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE AND SURROUNDING
TERRAIN AT 50-65%, WHICH IS GENERALLY THE WINDIEST LOCATION
DURING OFFSHORE FLOW. -03
AVIATION...THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES
WITH MOIST ONSHORE FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS. THIS WILL MAINTAIN
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH IFR TO MVFR STRATUS AT THE COAST, AND A
MIX OF MVFR AND LOW-END VFR INLAND. PROBABILITIES FOR WIDESPREAD
VFR INLAND INCREASE AFTER 00-02Z WED. BUT, CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO
LOWER AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO THU MORNING WITH AROUND A 60-70%
CHANCE OF MVFR AFTER 09-14Z THU. AT THE COAST, IFR CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORED THROUGH 00Z THU WITH MORE UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST
AFTER THE COLD FRONT PUSHES INLAND, AS SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
CONDITIONS IMPROVE WHILE OTHERS SUGGEST CONDITIONS WORSEN.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST ALONG THE NORTH OREGON COAST
TODAY WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON NEAR
KAST. WINDS BECOME LIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT AND OVERNIGHT.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...CLOUDY SKIES WITH CIGS JUMPING BETWEEN MVFR
AND LOW-END VFR THIS MORNING, LIKELY BECOMING PREDOMINATELY MVFR
THIS AFTERNOON. THEN CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT BACK TO VFR BY
00-01Z THU. CHANCES FOR MVFR CIGS AGAIN INCREASE TO ABOVE 60%
AFTER 10Z THU AS THE FRONT SAGS THROUGH THE AREA. SOUTHERLY WINDS
AROUND 5-9 KT BECOME LIGHT LATER THIS EVENING. /DH
MARINE
THIS AFTERNOON A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS SLOWLY DROPPING
SOUTH ACROSS THE WATERS WITH SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS IN THE 20-30
KNOT RANGE PEAKING NORTH OF CAPE FALCON, ESPECIALLY RIGHT ALONG
THE COASTLINE. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF CAPE FOULWEATHER, INCLUDING THE COLUMBIA
RIVER BAR, INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. BEHIND
THE FRONT, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO ABRUPTLY SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST,
TRANSITIONING TO A SOMEWHAT LIGHTER NORTHERLY WIND PATTERN
WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM MAY APPROACH THE NORTHERN WATERS
FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY, BUT IT LIKELY HOLDS NORTH AS IT MOVES
TOWARD THE WASHINGTON COAST THEN OUT OF THE REGION TO THE EAST.
NORTHERLY WINDS THEN RETURN FRIDAY, LIKELY PERSISTING OVER THE
WEEKEND.
A MID-PERIOD WEST-NORTHWESTERLY SWELL OF 6 TO 8 FT AT 11-12
SECONDS CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH
TONIGHT, INCREASING SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS INTO THE 8 TO 10 FT
RANGE. SEAS THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO AROUND 4 TO 6 FT LATER IN
THE WEEK WITH NO OTHER PROMINENT SWELLS OF NOTE AT THIS TIME.
-99/DH
PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ210.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR PZZ251-
252-271-272.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
X.COM/NWSPORTLAND
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