595
FXUS66 KPQR 261148
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
348 AM PST MON JAN 26 2026
SYNOPSIS
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY BEFORE THE
PATTERN SHIFTS. THE FIRST DISTURBANCE LOOKS TO IMPACT THE REGION
LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH SUBSEQUENT SYSTEMS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION RETURNS
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY, BUT SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH THE EXACT
TIMING AND PRECIPITATION TOTALS.
SHORT TERM...NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THE DOMINANT HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE REGION IS SLOWLY LOSING HOLD AS A PATTERN
SHIFT BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE. A WEAK SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE
TOWARD THE PACNW AND IS EXPECTED BRING WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS TO THE COAST AND COAST RANGE. EXPECTING A 10-20%
POP THROUGH THE DAY ACROSS THIS PORTION OF THE AREA. WHILE
LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM AS THE
ATMOSPHERE IS VERY DRY, THIS SYSTEM WILL HELP TO KEEP THE
ATMOSPHERE MIXED AS WELL AS BRING SOME SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR INTO
THE REGION.
BORDERLINE AIR STAGNATION CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY AT TIMES THROUGH TUESDAY. WEAK
TRANSPORT WINDS AND LOW MIXING HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED BUT MAY NOT
PERSIST FOR THE REQUIRED 48 HOURS FOR AN ADVISORY.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NE PACIFIC IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT
EASTWARD TOWARD THE WEST COAST THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. THIS
WILL SUPPORT A COLD FRONT THAT WILL APPROACH THE PACNW DURING
THE LATTER HALF OF THE DAY AND THE RETURN OF RAIN CHANCES FOR
THE ENTIRE AREA. PRECIPITATION IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE ON THE
LIGHTER SIDE THROUGHOUT THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY WITH TOTALS
TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY LIKELY TOPPING OUT AROUND 0.10
INCHES OR LESS FOR MOST LOCATIONS. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
BE ON THE WARMER SIDE WITH SNOW LEVELS INCREASING TOWARDS
4500-5000 FT. THIS WILL KEEP SNOW ISOLATED TO THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS WITHIN THE CASCADES. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT WHILE
MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLES ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT PRECIPITATION
IS ON THE WAY, THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE EXACT
START OF THE PRECIPITATION AS WELL AS HOW MUCH WILL FALL. -19/42
LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN ACTIVE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE NE PACIFIC.
THIS WILL SUPPORT SEVERAL DISTURBANCES THAT WILL IMPACT THE
PACNW, BRINGING PERIOD OF RAIN TO MOST OF THE AREA AND SOME SNOW
TO THE HIGH CASCADES. WHILE THERE IS AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS
AND ENSEMBLES THAT THE PATTERN REMAINS ACTIVE, THE EXACT
DETAILS REMAIN UNCERTAIN. -19
AVIATION
EXPECTING MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA,
ONLY EXCEPTION BEING POSSIBLE MVFR STRATUS ALONG THE COAST.
PROBABILITY OF MVFR CIGS IS AROUND 40-60% ACROSS THE CENTRAL
COAST NEAT KONP AND WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTHWARD TO KAST BY
18Z. VARIABLE WINDS INLAND OVERNIGHT EXCEPT NEAR THE WESTERN
COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE AND FAR EASTERN PORTLAND METRO AREA (KTTD),
WHERE TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL MAINTAIN BREEZY EASTERLY
WINDS WITH GUSTS TO UP TO 25 KT THROUGH THE DAY. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OVER THE REGION BRING SOME LIGHT
SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST AND INCREASED MID LEVEL CLOUD
COVER INLAND. BECAUSE OF THE DRY LOWER ATMOSPHERE, SOME OF THESE
SHOWERS MAY DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND. THE
WILLAMETTE VALLEY SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY. WINDS WILL ALSO
GRADUALLY TURN MORE SOUTHERLY ALONG THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST AND
SOUTHERN VALLEY IN THE AFTERNOON.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH HIGH CLOUDS
AND EASTERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KT OR LESS. -19/27
MARINE
SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION. CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD AND FREQUENT WIND
GUSTS EXCEEDING 21 KT (SMALL CRAFT WIND GUSTS) ARE 20-40%. SEAS
REMAIN AROUND 3-5 FT AT 14-16 SEC THROUGH THIS EVENING.
THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES THE WATERS ON TUESDAY, BRINGING
BREEZIER SOUTHERLY WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS. CONFIDENCE HAS
INCREASED FOR GALES ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS SO THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A GALE WARNING STARTING AT 4 AM
TUESDAY. HAVE ALSO ADDED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE INNER
WATERS AND COLUMBIA RIVER BAR STARTING AT 4 AM TUESDAY. CONFIDENCE
IS NOT AS HIGH FOR GALES CLOSER TO SHORE THOUGH SOME GUSTS
MEETING GALE CRITERIA ARE POSSIBLE, THEY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
WIDESPREAD. A WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY SWELL WILL ALSO MOVE IN
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND BUILD SEAS TO 10-13 FT, WITH A
20-30% CHANCE OF EXCEEDING 15 FEET. EXPECTING THE WIND WAVE TO
INFLUENCE TOTAL SEAS A BIT MORE SO THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING
15 FT SEEMS A BIT LOW, EXPECTING SEAS TO BE CLOSER TO THIS MARK
LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
CONDITIONS REMAIN ACTIVE INTO WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND WITH SMALL
CRAFT OR GALE CRITERIA LIKELY BEING MET THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK AS MORE DISTURBANCE MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS. ALSO EXPECTING
SEAS TO REMAIN ELEVATED IN THE MID TEENS, POSSIBLY UPPER TEENS
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. -19
PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 PM PST TUESDAY FOR PZZ210-
251>253.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM PST
TUESDAY FOR PZZ271>273.
GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 10 PM PST TUESDAY FOR PZZ271>273.
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