168  
FGUS71 KBGM 211920  
ESFBGM  
NYC007-015-017-023-025-053-065-067-077-097-099-101-105-107-109-  
123-PAC015-069-079-103-115-127-131-231930-  
 
WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY  
320 PM EDT THU MAR 21 2019  
   
..SEASONALLY AVERAGE FLOOD POTENTIAL THROUGH APRIL 4TH
 
 
THIS IS THE SIXTH IN THE SERIES OF REGULARLY SCHEDULED HYDROLOGIC  
OUTLOOKS ISSUED DURING THE WINTER AND SPRING SEASON. THIS OUTLOOK  
IS DESIGNED TO PROVIDE A GENERAL OVERVIEW OF RIVER FLOOD  
POTENTIAL (NOT FLASH FLOODING) ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK AND  
NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA FOR THE NEXT TWO WEEKS...MARCH 21ST THROUGH  
APRIL 4TH.  
   
..SUMMARY
 
 
THE FLOOD POTENTIAL ACROSS THE MAJOR BASINS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK  
AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA FOR THE NEXT TWO WEEKS IS ABOUT AVERAGE  
FOR LATE MARCH WHEN WE TYPICALLY EXPECT SOME RISK OF FLOODING  
EACH YEAR.  
   
..CURRENT CONDITIONS
 
 
   
CHEMUNG BASIN
 
 
.PRECIPITATION (PAST 14 DAYS): BELOW NORMAL.  
.SNOW COVER: PATCHY COVER, OR NONE.  
.SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT: MINIMAL, OR NONE (NORMAL)  
.14-DAY AVERAGE STREAMFLOW: NORMAL  
.RIVER ICE: NONE (NORMAL)  
.GROUND STATE: ABOVE AVERAGE SATURATION.  
   
NORTH BRANCH SUSQUEHANNA BASIN (NY)
 
 
.PRECIPITATION (PAST 14 DAYS): BELOW NORMAL.  
.SNOW COVER: PATCHY COVER AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.  
.WATER EQUIVALENT: PATCHY AREAS UP TO 1 INCH.  
.14-DAY AVERAGE STREAMFLOW: NORMAL  
.RIVER ICE: NONE (NORMAL)  
.GROUND STATE: ABOVE AVERAGE SATURATION.  
   
UPPER MAIN STEM SUSQUEHANNA BASIN (PA)
 
 
.PRECIPITATION (PAST 14 DAYS): BELOW NORMAL.  
.SNOW COVER: PATCHY, OR NONE.  
.WATER EQUIVALENT: LESS THAN 0.25 INCH.  
.14-DAY AVERAGE STREAMFLOW: NORMAL  
.RIVER ICE: NONE (NORMAL)  
.GROUND STATE: ABOVE AVERAGE SATURATION.  
   
UPPER DELAWARE BASIN
 
 
.PRECIPITATION (PAST 14 DAYS): BELOW NORMAL.  
.SNOW COVER: GOOD COVERAGE IN MOUNTAINS. NONE ELSEWHERE.  
.WATER EQUIVALENT: PATCHY AREAS UP TO 2 INCHES.  
.14-DAY AVG. STREAMFLOW: MOSTLY NORMAL.  
.RIVER ICE: NONE. (NORMAL)  
.RESERVOIR LEVELS: ABOVE NORMAL POOLS.  
.GROUND STATE: ABOVE AVERAGE SATURATION.  
   
OSWEGO BASIN / FINGER LAKES / WESTERN MOHAWK
 
 
.PRECIPITATION (PAST 14 DAYS): BELOW NORMAL.  
.SNOW COVER: PATCHY, OR NONE.  
.WATER EQUIVALENT: MINIMAL, OR NONE.  
.14-DAY AVERAGE STREAMFLOW: NORMAL.  
.RIVER ICE: NONE. (NORMAL)  
.LAKE LEVELS: NORMAL POOLS.  
.GROUND STATE: ABOVE AVERAGE SATURATION.  
   
..FORECAST OUTLOOK
 
 
.FUTURE WEATHER CONDITIONS: THE OFFICIAL 6 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK  
CALLS FOR A COLDER AND DRIER THAN NORMAL PERIOD EARLY IN THIS TIME  
FRAME, THEN TRENDING TOWARD MORE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WITH ABOVE  
AVERAGE PRECIPITATION. LONG RANGE GUIDANCE CONCURS WITH THE  
COLDER AND DRIER PERIOD, BUT INCREASES TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE  
DURING WEEK TWO. THE FIRST COUPLE DAYS OF THIS OUTLOOK WILL  
FEATURE A WET STORM SYSTEM MOVING ALONG THE EAST COAST WHICH IS  
EXPECTED TO BRING A RANGE OF 0.5 TO NEARLY 2 INCHES OF  
PRECIPITATION INTO THIS REGION. A PORTION OF THIS WILL FALL AS  
SNOW. THERE STILL SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT RAINFALL BEFORE ANY  
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW WHICH WILL CAUSE RUNOFF AND ALLOW RIVER LEVELS  
TO RISE THROUGH SATURDAY.  
 
.LONG RANGE RIVER MODELING AND PROBABILITY FORECASTS: THE  
ENSEMBLE OF RIVER FORECAST SYSTEMS INDICATED A LESS THAN 10  
PERCENT CHANCE OF FLOODING DURING THE NEXT 10 TO 14 DAYS FOR MOST  
RIVERS. THE HEADWATERS OF THE TIOUGHNIOGA AND W. BRANCH DELAWARE  
WERE SHOWING UP TO A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF MINOR FLOODING. WHEN  
COMPARING CURRENT HYDROLOGIC FORECAST STATISTICS AGAINST  
HISTORICAL FLOWS, MOST BASINS WERE INDICATING A MUCH BELOW AVERAGE  
RISK FOR SEASONAL FLOODING. THE ONLY BASIN TO INDICATE A NEAR TO  
ABOVE RISK OF FLOODING WAS THE NEVERSINK IN THE UPPER DELAWARE.  
   
..IN CONCLUSION
 
 
THIS OUTLOOK ESTIMATES THE POTENTIAL FOR RIVER AND LAKE FLOODING  
BASED ON A CURRENT OVERVIEW OF HYDRO-METEOROLOGICAL FACTORS WHICH  
CONTRIBUTE TO FLOODING.  
 
IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT SIGNIFICANT FLOODING DOES NOT OCCUR  
FROM SNOW MELT ALONE. RAINFALL, HOW MUCH AND IN HOW SHORT A PERIOD  
OF TIME, IS THE MOST IMPORTANT FACTOR IN DETERMINING THE SEVERITY  
OF FLOODING. SPECIFIC FORECASTS OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH  
FLOODING ARE NOT INCLUDED IN THIS OUTLOOK.  
 
THE NEXT WINTER/SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED BY THIS  
OFFICE IN ONE WEEK, APRIL 4, 2019. IF CONDITIONS CHANGE IN THE  
INTERIM: FLOOD WATCHES, WARNINGS OR ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED AS  
NECESSARY.  
 

 
 
JAB  
 
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