814  
FNUS71 KCTP 101807  
FWSCTP  
 
SPOT FORECAST FOR HEMLOCK FIRE...DCNR BUREAU OF FORESTRY  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA  
207 PM EDT SAT APR 10 2021  
 
FORECAST IS BASED ON FORECAST START TIME OF 1500 EDT ON APRIL 10.  
 
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, OR IF YOU HAVE QUESTIONS OR  
CONCERNS WITH THIS FORECAST, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE  
IN STATE COLLEGE.  
 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
DOWNSLOPING FLOW OFF THE BACKBONE OF THE ALLEGHENIES WILL DROP RH INTO  
THE UPPER 20S THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE WILDFIRE AREA, WITH MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE  
TEMPERATURES. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY FROM THE SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON  
INTO THIS EVENING.  
 
RH WILL RECOVER TONIGHT AS A FAIRLY LARGE AREA OF RAIN LASTING 6 TO 8 HOURS  
WILL MOVE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST, REACHING THE FIRE AREA BY MIDNIGHT.  
THIS WILL GREATLY DAMPEN THE WILDFIRE ACTIVITY, WITH AMOUNTS BETWEEN ONE HALF  
AND THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH.  
 
DRIER AND MILDER WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY, WITH A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS.  
   
REST OF TODAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (30-40 PERCENT).  
LAL.................NO TSTMS.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 77.  
MIN HUMIDITY........28 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST WINDS 13 TO 18 MPH.  
HAINES INDEX........6 OR HIGH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED  
FIRE GROWTH.  
LVORI...............1.  
ADI.................68.  
 
TIME (EDT) 3PM 4PM 5PM  
SKY (%)........... 37 37 37  
WEATHER COV.......  
WEATHER TYPE......  
TSTM COV..........  
LAL............... 1 1 1  
TEMP.............. 75 75 76  
RH................ 31 28 30  
20 FT WIND DIR.... SE SE SE  
20 FT WIND SPD.... 10 11 11  
20 FT WIND GUST... 14 14 16  
LVORI............. 1 1 1  
ADI............... 68 68 68  
HAINES INDEX...... 6 6 6  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING  
MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN  
SHOWERS EARLY IN THE EVENING. RAIN SHOWERS AND  
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE  
EVENING.  
LAL.................NO TSTMS UNTIL 2300, THEN 9-15 STRIKES.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 55.  
MAX HUMIDITY........93 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 6 TO 11 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 22 MPH IN  
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. GUSTY AND ERRATIC  
WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE  
EVENING.  
HAINES INDEX........5 TO 6 OR MODERATE TO HIGH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE  
PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
LVORI...............3.  
ADI.................29.  
 
TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM  
SKY (%)........... 37 38 40 59 77 95 97 98 99 100 100 100  
WEATHER COV....... CHC CHC CHC DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF  
WEATHER TYPE...... RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW  
TSTM COV.......... SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH  
LAL............... 1 1 1 1 1 5 5 5 5 5 5 5  
TEMP.............. 73 70 68 66 64 62 61 60 58 57 57 56  
RH................ 33 41 45 50 58 67 72 78 83 86 90 93  
20 FT WIND DIR.... SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE S S  
20 FT WIND SPD.... 11 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 9 8 7 6  
20 FT WIND GUST... 17 17 18 18 17 17 17 17 16 14 13 11  
LVORI............. 1 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 4 4  
ADI............... 31 31 31 26 26 26 32 32 32 28 28 28  
HAINES INDEX...... 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5  
   
SUNDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN  
SHOWERS.  
LAL.................NO TSTMS.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 67.  
MIN HUMIDITY........40 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 6 TO 8 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 22 MPH  
IN THE AFTERNOON.  
HAINES INDEX........3 TO 5 OR VERY LOW TO MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR  
LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
LVORI...............3.  
ADI.................40 INCREASING TO 80.  
 
TIME (EDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM  
SKY (%)........... 96 93 91 84 77 70 65 59 55 56 57 58  
WEATHER COV....... CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC  
WEATHER TYPE...... RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW  
TSTM COV..........  
LAL............... 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1  
TEMP.............. 56 56 56 57 59 61 63 64 66 66 66 66  
RH................ 96 90 90 83 78 67 60 52 47 45 42 40  
20 FT WIND DIR.... S S S S S S S S S S SW SW  
20 FT WIND SPD.... 6 6 6 6 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 8  
20 FT WIND GUST... 10 10 11 12 13 14 17 18 18 17 16 14  
LVORI............. 4 4 4 4 3 1 1 1 1 1 1 1  
ADI............... 40 40 40 65 65 65 79 79 79 81 81 81  
HAINES INDEX...... 5 5 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3  
 

 
FORECASTER...DEVOIR  
REQUESTED BY...JOSEPH ULOZAS  
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE  
.TAG 2108543.0/CTP  
.DELDT 04/10/21  
.FORMATTERVERSION 1.0.26  
.EMAIL JULOZAS@PA.GOV  
 
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