738  
FNUS71 KPHI 301959  
FWSPHI  
 
SPOT FORECAST FOR JB MDL D12-4,3 AND 2...USFWS  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ  
359 PM EDT THU MAR 30 2023  
 
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1700 EDT ON MARCH 30.  
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER  
SERVICE.  
 
PLEASE CONTACT OUR OFFICE IF YOU HAVE QUESTIONS  
OR CONCERNS WITH THIS FORECAST.  
   
DISCUSSION  
 
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED IN THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION EARLY  
THIS MORNING WILL BUILD TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE CORE OF THE AIR  
MASS IS FORECAST TO SLIDE OFF THE VIRGINIA COAST THIS AFTERNOON  
BEFORE MOVING FARTHER OUT TO SEA. A WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM  
THE SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO LIFT THROUGH OUR REGION ON FRIDAY.  
STRONG LOW PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED TO PASS ACROSS THE GREAT  
LAKES ON FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE MOVING DOWN THE SAINT LAWRENCE  
RIVER VALLEY ON SATURDAY. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO PULL A STRONG  
COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA ON SATURDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE  
IS EXPECTED TO FOLLOW FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY  
MAY DROP INTO OUR REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST ON MONDAY NIGHT AND  
IT COULD MEANDER IN OUR VICINITY ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.  
   
REST OF TODAY  
 
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (0-10 PERCENT).  
CWR.................0 PERCENT.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.  
LAL.................1.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 47.  
MIN HUMIDITY........25 PERCENT.  
WIND SHIFT..........GRADUAL SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE EVENING.  
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 9 MPH.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......5900 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 18 MPH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (95100 KNOT-FT).  
ADI.................82.  
 
TIME (EDT) 5PM  
SKY (%).........5  
WEATHER COV.....  
WEATHER TYPE....  
TSTM COV........  
CWR.............0  
CHC OF PCPN (%).0  
LAL.............1  
TEMP............46  
RH..............25  
20 FT WIND DIR..NW  
20 FT WIND SPD..10  
20 FT WIND GUST.15  
MIX HGT (KFT)...5.9  
TRANSP WIND DIR.W  
TRANSP WIND SPD.18  
ADI.............82  
VRATE KT-FT/1K..95  
VENTRATE CAT....GD  
   
TONIGHT  
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (20-30 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING  
MOSTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT).  
CWR.................0 PERCENT.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.  
LAL.................1.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 30.  
MAX HUMIDITY........88 PERCENT.  
WIND SHIFT..........GRADUAL SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE EVENING  
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 5 TO 8 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING  
BECOMING LIGHT, THEN BECOMING SOUTH AROUND 5  
MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......400 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 7 TO 16 MPH DECREASING TO AROUND 5 MPH  
LATE IN THE EVENING, THEN SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH  
6 TO 9 MPH OVERNIGHT.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (73000 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE EVENING  
DECREASING TO POOR (2000 KNOT-FT) LATE IN THE  
NIGHT.  
ADI.................96 EARLY IN THE EVENING DECREASING TO 2 LATE IN  
THE NIGHT.  
 
TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM  
SKY (%).........5 5 5 5 4 7 5 22 30 45 42 52  
WEATHER COV.....  
WEATHER TYPE....  
TSTM COV........  
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0  
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0  
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1  
TEMP............46 45 40 37 35 34 32 31 30 30 30 30  
RH..............26 28 36 38 41 43 49 53 58 60 66 75  
20 FT WIND DIR..W W W W W SW SW S S S S S  
20 FT WIND SPD..8 6 5 3 2 2 3 3 3 3 5 5  
20 FT WIND GUST.12 8 6 6 5 3 5 6 6 6 7 7  
MIX HGT (KFT)...5.2 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4  
TRANSP WIND DIR.W W W W W W SW S S S SW S  
TRANSP WIND SPD.16 12 9 7 7 5 5 6 7 7 8 9  
ADI.............96 5 4 3 3 2 2 3 3 3 5 6  
VRATE KT-FT/1K..73 8 5 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 3 3  
VENTRATE CAT....GD PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR  
   
FRIDAY  
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (35-45 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING  
MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF  
RAIN LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.  
CWR.................10 PERCENT INCREASING TO 20 PERCENT LATE IN THE  
AFTERNOON.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......20 PERCENT.  
LAL.................1.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 62.  
MIN HUMIDITY........48 PERCENT.  
WIND SHIFT..........NONE EXPECTED.  
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTH 14 TO 15 MPH.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......3500 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 10 TO 18 MPH INCREASING TO SOUTHWEST 22  
TO 29 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (3400 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE MORNING  
INCREASING TO EXCELLENT (86900 KNOT-FT) IN THE  
AFTERNOON.  
ADI.................7 EARLY IN THE MORNING INCREASING TO 74 IN THE  
AFTERNOON.  
 
TIME (EDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM  
SKY (%).........50 43 29 52 53 72 76 80 76 79 77 70  
WEATHER COV..... SCH SCH  
WEATHER TYPE.... RN RN  
TSTM COV........  
CWR.............0 0 0 0 10 10 10 10 10 10 20 20  
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 0 10 10 10 10 10 10 20 20  
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1  
TEMP............31 31 37 43 48 52 54 56 58 59 60 61  
RH..............81 88 75 67 58 50 48 49 49 49 49 51  
20 FT WIND DIR..S S S S S S S S S S S S  
20 FT WIND SPD..5 6 5 8 10 13 14 16 16 16 15 15  
20 FT WIND GUST.8 9 8 14 16 20 21 24 24 24 24 24  
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.4 0.4 0.6 1.5 1.8 2.5 2.8 3.3 3.5 3.4 3.0 2.6  
TRANSP WIND DIR.S S S S S S S S S SW SW SW  
TRANSP WIND SPD.10 10 12 17 18 22 23 28 29 29 28 25  
ADI.............7 11 12 28 34 48 53 69 74 73 66 56  
VRATE KT-FT/1K..3 4 6 22 29 48 57 78 87 85 73 56  
VENTRATE CAT....PR PR PR PR PR FR FR GD GD GD GD FR  
 
 
FORECASTER...JOHNSON  
REQUESTED BY...STEVEN HOLMES  
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED  
.TAG 2307903.0/PHI  
.DELDT 03/30/23  
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0  
.EMAIL STEVEN_HOLMES@FWS.GOV  
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