762
FXUS61 KCTP 010629
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
229 AM EDT SUN JUN 1 2025
SYNOPSIS
* SUNDAY WILL STILL BE BREEZY, WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FOR EARLY JUNE.
* DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK, BEFORE
A RETURN TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY THURSDAY.
* A TREND TOWARDS MUCH WARMER, SUMMER-LIKE CONDITIONS IS
FORESEEN THIS WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
220 AM UPDATE... EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ERODING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
COMMONWEALTH, WITH SOME BOUNDARY LAYER DRY ADVECTION UNDERWAY.
THIS PATTERN SHOULD LEAD INTO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AS DAYBREAK
EMERGES IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
BY MID TO LATE MORNING, AS A FAIRLY DEEP AND COLD UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH IS STILL PRESENT, WE EXPECT STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS TO
QUICKLY REDEVELOP, PARTICULARLY FOR AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF
I-80. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES COULD EVEN DOT THE FAR
NORTHERN TIER, COINCIDENT WITH PEAK HEATING THIS AFTERNOON.
AREAS SOUTH OF I-80, A BIT FARTHER REMOVED FROM THE CENTER OF
THE COLD POOL ALOFT, SHOULD SEE MORE IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE.
ALSO OF INTEREST THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE A THIN BAND OF RESIDUAL
CANADIAN WILDFIRE SMOKE. OUR VERTICALLY INTEGRATED SMOKE MODEL
BRINGS A PLUME OF THIS ACROSS SOUTHERN PA DURING THE AFTERNOON.
ALTHOUGH CONCENTRATIONS NEAR THE SURFACE SHOULD BE LITTLE, IF
ANY, IT SHOULD ADD AN ELEMENT OF HAZINESS TO THE SKY, SO WE WENT
AHEAD AND ADDED SOME HAZE TO THE FORECAST FOR AREAS SOUTH OF
I-80.
IT WILL BE ANOTHER RELATIVELY CHILLY DAY FOR THE TIME OF YEAR,
WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGING FROM NEAR 60 OVER THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS, TO AROUND 70 NEAR THE MASON-DIXON LINE.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
230 AM UPDATE... TONIGHT STILL LOOKS QUITE CHILLY, AS GOOD
RADIATING CONDITIONS UNDERNEATH APPROACHING HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD
ALLOW READINGS TO DROP QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. BEFORE DAYBREAK,
MID-UPPER 30S STILL LOOKS COMMON ACROSS NORTHWEST AND NORTH-
CENTRAL PA, WITH AREAS OF FROST POSSIBLE. WE'LL CONTINUE TO
MENTION FROST IN THE HWO FOR NOW. DAY SHIFT PERSONNEL CAN MAKE A
FINAL CALL ON A POTENTIAL ADVISORY, BASED ON CONFIDENCE LEVELS
AT THAT TIME. OUTSIDE OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREAS, LOWS BY
DAYBREAK SHOULD RANGE IN THE 40S.
AT LONG LAST, A SUSTAINED WARM UP IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON
MONDAY, AS SIGNIFICANT WARM ADVECTION ALOFT AND A FAIR AMOUNT OF
SUNSHINE SHOULD COMBINE TO BRING AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES INTO THE
70S FOR MOST.
MONDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN DRY, WITH TEMPERATURES NOT NEARLY AS
CHILLY AS THE PREVIOUS NIGHT.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
LATE EVENING UPDATE.
12Z GFS AND EC NOT REALLY CLOSE BY 240 HRS. EITHER WAY, EXPECT
SOME WET WEATHER AGAIN AFTER WED, SO ENJOY MONDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY, WHEN WE CAN HAVE BOTH SOME WARM WEATHER AND DRY
WEATHER, WHICH WE REALLY NEED AFTER HOW WET IT HAS BEEN THIS
MONTH OF MAY. SOME LOCATIONS OVER 10 INCHES OF RAIN FOR THIS
MAY.
THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL BE NEAR THE AREA STILL BY NEXT
WEEKEND, SO WHILE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAY BE LOWER BY THEN
AFTER HIGHER POPS BEFORE THAT PERIOD, THE FRONT WILL NOT BE
THAT FAR FROM THE SOUTHERN BORDER OF PA.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
ON THE LARGE-SCALE, THE AMPLIFIED, BLOCKY UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN
WE'VE SEEN NOW FOR SEVERAL WEEKS IS STILL FORECAST TO FLATTEN
OUT AND PROGRESS NEXT WEEK, ALLOWING SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT RISES
ALOFT TO DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS SIGNALS A TREND
TOWARDS MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES AND GENERALLY LESS RAINFALL
THAN WE'VE EXPERIENCED LATELY.
AS FOR THE DAILY SENSIBLE WEATHER, AFTER A CHILLY START EARLY
MONDAY, THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK TURNS MUCH WARMER, WITH
RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED. AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE EXPECTED
TO SURGE WELL INTO THE 80S BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, AND COULD
EVEN MAKE A RUN AT 90 ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY.
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT COULD MAKE A CLOSE ENOUGH APPROACH TO
THE COMMONWEALTH TO BRING AFTERNOON AND EVENING FAVORED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
06Z UPDATE... HIGH CONFIDENCE (80-90%) IN VFR/RESTRICTION-FREE
CONDITIONS FOR THE VALID TAF PERIOD. THERE IS A SMALL
PROBABILITY (20-30%) OF BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS AT KBFD AROUND
DAYBREAK.
NW SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME QUITE GUSTY AGAIN LATER TODAY, WITH
GUSTS OF 25-30 KT COMMON THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH QUICKLY AFTER 00Z.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY-WEDNESDAY...VFR EXPECTED.
THURSDAY...POTENTIAL BRIEF RESTRICTIONS IN
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
PERIOD.
CLIMATE
MAY 2025 PRECIPITATION RANKINGS
SITE MAY 1-30, 2025 | WETTEST MAY ON RECORD
-----------------------------------------------------------
HARRISBURG 9.72" WETTEST | 9.71" IN 1989 (PREVIOUS)
WILLIAMSPORT 6.99" 5TH WETTEST | 9.91" IN 1919
ALTOONA 7.24" 3RD WETTEST | 7.31" IN 1960
STATE COLLEGE 6.47" 9TH WETTEST | 9.45" IN 1894 (~5/29)
RECORD PRECIPITATION WAS OBSERVED IN HARRISBURG ON MAY 30TH
WHEN 1.75 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION OCCURRED. THIS BROKE THE
PREVIOUS RECORD OF 1.39 INCHES SET BACK IN 1953. FOR REFERENCE,
A CONTINUOUS WEATHER RECORD HAS BEEN KEPT IN HARRISBURG SINCE
1888.
RECORD PRECIPITATION WAS ALSO OBSERVED AT JOHNSTOWN, WHERE 1.05
INCHES OF PRECIPITATION OCCURRED, BREAKING THE OLD RECORD OF
0.89 INCHES SET BACK IN 1975.
A SEASONABLY STRONG/DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE (~990MB) IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA OVERNIGHT. THE
RECORD LOW PRESSURE FOR MAY AT HARRISBURG IS 983.4MB.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...JUREWICZ
NEAR TERM...JUREWICZ
SHORT TERM...JUREWICZ
LONG TERM...JUREWICZ/MARTIN
AVIATION...JUREWICZ
CLIMATE...STEINBUGL/NPB
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