388
FXUS61 KCTP 101020
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
620 AM EDT SAT OCT 10 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
A WIND ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR SOMERSET AND CAMBRIA
COUNTIES FROM 8PM TONIGHT THROUGH 2PM SUNDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) PERIODS OF RAIN AND BREEZY CONDITIONS FROM ISAIAS ARRIVE
TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY
2) TRENDING WARMER TO START AN UNSETTLED WEEK
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: PERIODS OF RAIN AND BREEZY CONDITIONS FROM
ISAIAS ARRIVE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY
FAIR WEATHER WILL BE IN PLAY TODAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND
INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH
ISAIAS IS PROJECTED TO REACH THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS BEFORE
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND GRADUALLY EXPAND THROUGHOUT CENTRAL PA
INTO SUNDAY MORNING. PERIODS OF RAIN CONTINUE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF BY EARLY MONDAY. TOTAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE STILL FORECASTED BETWEEN 0.75 AND 1.50
INCHES OVER A 24-36HR DURATION WITH A LOW RISK OF POTENTIAL
FLOODING IMPACTS.
AS POST-TROPICAL/TD ISAIAS TRACKS FROM THE TN VALLEY INTO
WV, GUSTY WINDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS WITH
MAXIMUM WIND GUSTS OF 35-45 MPH WEST OF THE TALLEST RIDGES.
ELSEWHERE, GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL
INCREASE THIS EVENING, REACHING GUSTS OF UP TO 45 MPH, BEFORE
TAPERING OFF AFTER 2 PM SUNDAY. A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR CAMBRIA AND SOMERSET COUNTIES.
KEY MESSAGE 2: TRENDING WARMER TO START AN UNSETTLED WEEK
AFTER THE RAIN TRACKS OFF TO THE EAST, TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN
TO RISE MONDAY. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON AS AIR STARTS TO TREND DRIER. TUESDAY A COLD FRONT
WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE COMMONWEALTH BRINGING A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. WEDNESDAY WILL
PROVIDE BRIEF REPRIEVE BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES OVER THE
STATE THURSDAY AS RAINY WEATHER SETTLES IN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
PREVAILING VFR REMAINS LIKELY THROUGH TODAY AS A BROAD HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN US. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY ON TODAY AHEAD OF WHAT IS CURRENTLY
HURRICANE ISAIAS. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 10
KNOTS, THOUGH A FEW GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KJST
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS SOME GUIDANCE TO SUGGEST GUST OF
35+ KNOTS COULD OCCUR AT KJST AFTER 04Z ON SUNDAY, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW THOSE WINDS MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE. ANY
RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF ISAIAS WILL HOLD OFF
UNTIL LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE INITIAL
THOUGHT ON TIMING WOULD BE AFTER 06Z SUNDAY IS WHEN
PRECIPITATION WOULD BEGIN OVER THE SOUTHWEST. RAIN AND LOWERING
CEILINGS WILL THEN OVERSPREAD ACROSS THE REGION, WITH IFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY FOR MOST TAF SITES SUNDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK...
SUN-MON...RESTRICTIONS LIKELY IN LOWER CEILINGS AND RAIN.
TUE...VFR FAVORED, THOUGH A FROPA MAY BRING RESTRICTIONS IN
-SHRA. AM FOG POSSIBLE.
WED...AM CEILING RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM POST-FRONTAL
STRATOCU, WITH VFR OTHERWISE FAVORED. SLIGHT CHANCE OF -SHRA DUE
TO LINGERING MOISTURE BEHIND FRONT.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR
PAZ024-033.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...KRANTZ
KEY MESSAGES...STEINBUGL/KRANTZ
DISCUSSION...STEINBUGL/KRANTZ
AVIATION...BAUCO/BOWEN
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