393
FXUS61 KCTP 191340
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
940 AM EDT FRI OCT 19 2018
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE BY TO THE SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA TODAY.
A COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS WILL MOVE THROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND,
DROPPING TEMPERATURES AND LEADING TO LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS.
COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES BUT MAINLY DRY WEATHER ARE
EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/
IT WAS ANOTHER CRISP COLD OCTOBER MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL PA.
TEMPS ARE RECOVERING NICELY FROM WIDESPREAD MINS IN THE 20S AND
30S. BRIGHT SUNSHINE WILL GRADUALLY BE DIMMED BY INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS AS THE DAY WEARS ON, BUT IT WILL BE A NEARLY PERFECT
OCTOBER DAY. WE HAVEN'T HAD TOO MANY IF ANY OF THESE CLEAR AND
CRISP DAYS THIS AUTUMN. EXPECT THE SSW WIND TO START TO PICK UP
OVER THE WRN MTNS LATE THIS MORNING, BUT STAY LIGHT IN THE MID
& LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. GUSTS COULD GET INTO THE 20S ON THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTH AND LAURELS LATER TODAY. MAXES HOLD IN
THE M-U50S - CLOSE TO, BUT JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/
A TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE WEST WILL BRING ONLY A MEAGER AMOUNT
OF MOISTURE WITH IT TONIGHT. PWAT BARELY GOES ABOVE NORMAL ALONG
THE SRN BORDER FOR A FEW HOURS TONIGHT. THE TROUGH IS MOVING
QUICKLY AND RAIN/SHOWERS SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT. PRECIP SHOULD
STAY ALL RAIN OVERNIGHT AS THE WIND AND TEMPS STAY UP, WITH THE
TEMPS WELL ABOVE FREEZING. ANOTHER SHOT OR TWO OF COLDER AIR
THEN COME IN FROM THE NW AND WILL DROP THE TEMPS SIGNIFICANTLY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE TEMPS WON'T MOVE MUCH AT ALL ON SAT
OVER THE NW THANKS TO THE CLOUDS AND COLD ADVECTION, AND MAY MAX
OUT IN THE MORNING THERE. IT WILL GET BREEZY WITH GUSTS CLOSE
TO 30 SAT AFTN. THE W/NW WIND WILL ALSO GENERATE SCT/NMRS SHRA
OFF THE LAKES, BUT THE TEMPS WILL BE MILD ENOUGH TO KEEP P-TYPE
RAIN UNTIL NEAR SUNSET IN THE FAR NW. THE DOWNSLOPE WILL LIKELY
HELP THE LOWER SUSQ TO GET INTO THE L60S.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
*A TASTE OF WINTER SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY. BLUSTERY WINDS, SNOW
SHOWERS, REDUCED VISIBILITY WITH SOME ACCUMULATION IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.
A POTENT SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY WINDS
AND SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATION (<1 INCH) IS EXPECTED IN THE NW SNOWBELT AND HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU INTO THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS
(ALONG/WEST OF US-219). WIND CHILLS IN THE LOW 30S NW TO LOW 40S
SE ON SUNDAY WILL MAKE IT FEEL MORE LIKE EARLY DECEMBER THAN
LATE OCTOBER. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
A SYSTEM PASSING TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA MAY BRING A FEW LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NORTHERN TIER ON TUESDAY; OTHERWISE
ANTICIPATE DRY WX TO LAST THROUGH MIDWEEK.
MORE DETAIL BELOW.
850 MB TEMPS SUNDAY DOWN AROUND MINUS 8, THUS PLENTY COLD FOR
SNOW.
AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF PA BRINGING MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES. THE HIGH SLIDES EAST AWAY FROM THE REGION TODAY AS FLOW
TURNS SW AND INCREASES AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. BY AFTERNOON,
CIRRUS WILL BE SLIDING IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WITH SW WINDS
PICKING UP TO AROUND 10 MPH, FOLLOWED BY LOWERING CEILINGS
TONIGHT MAINLY OVER THE NW HALF DOWN INTO THE MVFR RANGE (IFR IN
THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS). A CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN BEGINS IN THE
LAURELS BY MID EVENING AND SPREADS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
CENTRAL PA MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. WINDS LOOK TO STAY UP AROUND
10 MPH AND BREEZY TONIGHT AS LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASES TO AROUND
40KTS AT 850MBS, PRODUCING MARGINAL LLWS CONDITIONS.
OUTLOOK
SAT...AM LOW CIGS/LLWS LIKELY MAINLY NW HALF. AS A COLD FRONT
PUSHES SE ACROSS THE STATE, SHOWERS AND CIG RESTRICTIONS WILL
BE MOST WIDESPREAD OVER THE WEST WITH A LOW-TOPPED TSTM POSSIBLE
THERE AS WELL. SHOWERS WILL BE MORE SCATTERED OVER THE CENTRAL
MTNS AND SUSQ VALLEY. BRISK WEST WINDS TURN NW AT AROUND 15 MPH
GUSTING TO 30 MPH.
SAT NIGHT...BRISK NW FLOW OF 15 MPH GUSTING TO 30 MPH.
WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE UPSLOPE
REGIONS OF THE NORTH AND WEST.
SUN...SHSNRA/CIG REDUCTIONS LIKELY N/W IN THE MORNING, WITH
IMPROVING CONDITIONS IN THE AFTERNOON. BREEZY NW WIND.
MON-TUE...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...MARTIN/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...DEVOIR/RXR
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