273
FXUS61 KCTP 160727
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
327 AM EDT SAT MAY 16 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) HOTTEST TEMPERATURES OF THE YEAR SO FAR FORECAST EARLY NEXT
WEEK
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: HOTTEST TEMPERATURES OF THE YEAR SO FAR FORECAST
EARLY NEXT WEEK
DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE STEADILY RISING TODAY THROUGH
EARLY IN THE UPCOMING WEEK.
AN ANOMALOUS UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL U.S.
WILL DELIVER SUMMERLIKE CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND THROUGH THE
FIRST PART OF THE NEW WEEK.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S MONDAY
AND TUESDAY AND COULD CHALLENGE DAILY RECORDS IN SOME LOCATIONS.
MANUAL ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO LOWER NBM MAXT BY A FEW DEGREES
DUE TO A KNOWN SYSTEMATIC BIAS CORRECTION ISSUE IDENTIFIED
DURING THE SHOULDER SEASONS.
THIS SHOULD ALSO KEEP MAX HEAT INDICES UNDER 100F FOR THE MOST
PART. HOWEVER, HEAT RISK IMPACTS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED
GIVEN THE QUICK RAMP- UP IN HEAT AND LIMITED ACCLIMATION TIME.
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SOME STRAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
A COLD FRONT (ACCOMPANIED BY MORE WIDESPREAD AND FREQUENT
SHOWERS/T-STORMS) BRINGS RELIEF NEXT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO COOL DOWN BACK TO HISTORICAL/CLIMO
AVERAGES FOR LATE MAY FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING AS
HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. VFR CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE WEST TO EAST AS A SHORTWAVE TRACKS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS HIGH PRESSURE & ITS CONCURRENT RIDGE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING, BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH
ANY FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS LOOKING TO BE BRIEF AND UNLIKELY
OUTSIDE OF ANY LOCALLY HEAVIER SHOWERS. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU (KBFD/KJST) WHERE THE HREF
MEAN MUCAPE VALUES ARE AROUND 100 J/KG. AS PRECIPITATION
PROGRESSES EASTWARD, HEIGHT RISES AND INCREASINGLY STABLE
CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN A DOWNTREND IN ACTIVITY.
AS THE SHORTWAVE EXITS OUR AREA DURING THE EVENING, RIDGING
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION, RESULTING IN RESIDUAL
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BECOMING TRAPPED BENEATH A SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION. AS A RESULT, MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AFTER 22Z-23Z SATURDAY ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU
(KBFD/KJST), WITH LESSER CONFIDENCE IN EVENING/OVERNIGHT FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS EAST OF THE ALLEGHENIES DUE TO DOWNSLOPING FLOW AND
LESS ANTECEDENT MOISTURE.
OUTLOOK...
SUN-TUE...MAINLY VFR. PATCHY A.M. FOG. ISOLATED P.M. SHOWER OR
T-STORM POSSIBLE.
WED...RESTRICTIONS PROBABLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
SHOWERS/STORMS ALONG CFROPA.
CLIMATE
DAILY RECORD MAX TEMPERATURE FOR MAY 18-19:
5/18 5/19
HARRISBURG 94 IN 1962 95 IN 1962
WILLIAMSPORT 95 IN 1962 96 IN 1996
ALTOONA 91 IN 1962/1996/2017 92 IN 1996
BRADFORD 85 IN 1962 85 IN 1962
STATE COLLEGE 92 IN 1962 92 IN 1934/1996
PLEASE NOTE: STATE COLLEGE CO-OPERATIVE OBSERVATIONS ARE A
24-HOUR SUMMARY TAKEN ONCE PER DAY AROUND 7 AM (7AM-7AM).
THEREFORE, A MAX TEMP OCCURRING IN THE DAYLIGHT OR LATE IN THE
DAY IS USUALLY REPORTED IN THE _NEXT_ DAY'S OBSERVATION. ALSO,
THE SAME MIN TEMP MAY BE REPORTED ON TWO CONSECUTIVE DAYS IF THE
MIN OCCURS AT OBSERVATION TIME.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...LAMBERT/STEINBUGL
KEY MESSAGES...LAMBERT/STEINBUGL
DISCUSSION...LAMBERT/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...TEARE
CLIMATE...DANGELO/STEINBUGL
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