974
FXUS61 KCTP 261851
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
251 PM EDT FRI JUN 26 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN SIGNIFICANT HEAT AND HUMIDITY NEXT WEEK
(JULY 1-4).
KEY MESSAGES
1) DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF TODAY WITH SKIES VARYING FROM
PARTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS TO GENERALLY CLOUDY
OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE.
2) STEADY, LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY;
LINGERING RISK FOR A POP UP SHOWER ON SUNDAY.
3) INCREASING HEAT RISK BUILDS THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND LATTER
PART OF NEXT WEEK WITH A CHANCE FOR DAILY AFTERNOON STORMS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF TODAY WITH SKIES
VARYING FROM PARTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS TO
GENERALLY CLOUDY OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE.
THE COLD FRONT THAT PUSHED THROUGH THE STATE LAST NIGHT
REMAINS STALLED OUT NEAR THE MASON-DIXON LINE.
DEWPOINTS WERE GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO MID 60S RESPECTIVELY FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS PA, WHILE READINGS WERE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S ACROSS NORTHERN MD, VA AND WVA JUST TO THE SOUTH OF
THIS BOUNDARY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 70S OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND LAUREL
HIGHLANDS TO THE MID 80S IN THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY.
THERE STILL COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS SNEAKING JUST OVER THE PA/MD
BORDER IN SCENT PA AND THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY EARLY THIS EVENING,
BUT RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE SEVERE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OR
LESS THROUGH DUSK.
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KEY MESSAGE 2: PERIODS OF STEADY, LIGHT TO BRIEFLY MODERATE
RAIN TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY; LINGERING RISK FOR A POP UP SHOWER
ON SUNDAY.
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE, CENTERED OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI THIS
AFTERNOON, WILL DRIFT EAST ALONG THE STALLED OUT FRONT TONIGHT,
BRINGING A MORE WIDESPREAD SHIELD OF STRATIFORM RAIN WITH
EMBEDDED/TRAILING CONVECTION TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY, SIMILAR TO
WHAT WE SAW ON EARLIER THIS WEEK ON MONDAY.
THE BEST UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IN THE FORM OF A SHORTWAVE WILL
DRIFT OVERHEAD AROUND DAYBREAK SATURDAY, WHICH IS WHEN THE RAIN
WILL BE MOST WIDESPREAD. AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST OF THE
REGION, THE COVERAGE OF RAIN SHOULD SLOWLY DIMINISH DURING THE
MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON HOURS SATURDAY.
THE COMBINATION OF PERSISTENT CLOUDS AND WIDESPREAD RAIN (AT
LEAST IN THE MORNING) WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE,
GENERALLY IN THE 70S ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. DEWPOINTS
WILL SURGE INTO THE LOW 70S IN THE SOUTH, WHICH WILL MAKE IT FEEL
RATHER UNCOMFORTABLE HUMIDITY-WISE.
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY COULD EXCEED AN INCH
IN A FEW SPOTS ACROSS SOUTHERN PA, WHILE MUCH LOWER AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 WHERE LESS THAN 0.30 OF AN INCH
IS EXPECTED.
SHOWERS SHOULD BECOME MORE SCATTERED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
THE RISK FOR LIGHTNING APPEARS RATHER LOW AT THIS JUNCTURE. BY
SUNDAY, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN PA,
HELPING ENSURING DRY WEATHER THERE ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER
DEWPOINTS. BUT A FEW SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON
IN SOUTH CENTRAL PA CLOSER TO THE FRONT AND BEST MOISTURE.
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KEY MESSAGE 3: INCREASING HEAT RISK BUILDS THROUGH THE MIDDLE
AND LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK WITH A CHANCE FOR DAILY AFTERNOON
STORMS.
A DEEP TROUGH SETTLING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THIS WEEKEND WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A
DOWNSTREAM UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN US BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK. BLENDED ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE DRIVING THE PROTOTYPE
PROBABILISTIC HEATRISK IS SHOWING A SIGNAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT
WARMUP FOR CENTRAL PA TO END JUNE AND START JULY. WITH
INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY EXCEED 90 DEGREES OVER A
LARGE PORTION OF THE AREA TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
(TUE- FRI). HEIGHT AND TEMPERATURE FIELDS ARE PROGGED TO BE 2 TO
3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL, PLACING THEM ABOVE THE 99TH
PERCENTILE. IN ADDITION TO ANOMALOUS HEIGHTS AND TEMPERATURES,
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE AT LEAST A COUPLE STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. THIS COMBINATION OF ANOMALOUS HEAT AND
HUMIDITY WILL PUSH HEAT INDEX VALUES OVER 100 DEGREES BY MID TO
LATE WEEK, ESPECIALLY IN THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. THE CLIMATE
PREDICTION CENTER HAS HIGHLIGHTED ALL OF PENNSYLVANIA IN A HIGH
RISK FOR EXTREME HEAT ON FRIDAY 7/3 AND A MODERATE RISK ON
SATURDAY 7/4.
DEPENDING ON THE EXACT POSITIONING OF THE RIDGE, THERE MAY ALSO
BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST IN A CLASSIC 'RING OF FIRE'
PATTERN. MACHINE LEARNING GUIDANCE HIGHLIGHTS POTENTIAL FOR
DAILY AFTERNOON STORMS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH RELATIVELY
LOWER PROBABILITIES UNTIL THEN. THIS TYPE OF PATTERN COULD ALSO
SUPPORT SOME HIGHER END SEVERE POTENTIAL IN THE FORM OF
MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS RIDING ALONG THE RIDGE. WE'LL
CONSIDER THIS A LOW PROBABILITY-HIGH IMPACT EVENT AT THIS POINT.
ANYONE OVERSEEING FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND EVENTS SHOULD CONTINUE
TO MONITOR THE FORECAST CLOSELY FOR THE POTENTIAL OF IMPACTS
FROM BOTH HEAT AND SEVERE WEATHER.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON AS MID-HIGH CLOUDS OVERSPREAD
THE REGION AHEAD OF A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY. A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT TO OUR SOUTH WILL MAINTAIN
DRIER AIR ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING (SPC MESOANALYSIS
SHOWS PWATS GENERALLY <=1.0"), WITH ANY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY FAVORED SOUTH OF THE MASON-DIXON LINE WHERE GREATER
MOISTURE IS IN PLACE. OTHERWISE, WESTERLY WINDS OF AROUND 10 KTS
THIS AFTERNOON WILL TREND LIGHT/VARIABLE THIS EVENING AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES.
CEILINGS WILL LOWER WEST TO EAST TONIGHT AS THE SYSTEM
APPROACHES, WITH SCATTERED -RA/-SHRA MOVING IN AFTER MIDNIGHT.
INTERMITTENT IFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
STEADIEST SHOWERS (PWATS INCREASE TO AROUND 1.5" OVERNIGHT,
IMPROVING RAINFALL EFFICIENCY), THOUGH MOST SHOWERS WILL BE
LIGHT WITH VFR-MVFR FAVORED. CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING THE
NORTHERN EXTENT & ONSET OF THIS ACTIVITY AS A RESULT OF DRIER
AIR NEAR THE SURFACE TO START, WITH THE HRRR BRINGING PATCHES OF
STEADIER RAIN FARTHER NORTH (KBFD/KIPT) & MOST OTHER GUIDANCE
FARTHER SOUTH. PATCHY FOG AND/OR LOW CEILINGS MAY ALSO DEVELOP
ACROSS HIGH ELEVATIONS IF CLOUD COVER IS LOWER (VIA RADIATIONAL
FOG) OR SHOWERS INCREASE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE (VIA LOW STRATUS).
THE MORE ORGANIZED BATCH OF RAIN OVERNIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS HEADING INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON, WITH LOW-
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF THIS TRANSITION. SLOWER
RECOVERY FROM FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WHERE SHOWERS
LINGER INTO THE DAYTIME & WHERE MORE RAIN FALLS, WITH QUICKER
RECOVERY FAVORED WHERE CONDITIONS REMAIN DRIER OVERNIGHT
(PARTICULARLY KBFD/KIPT).
OUTLOOK...
SUN-WED...AM FOG; OTHERWISE VFR. TRENDING HOTTER WITH ISOLD PM
T-STORMS PSBL.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...LAMBERT/BANGHOFF
KEY MESSAGES...LAMBERT/BANGHOFF
DISCUSSION...LAMBERT/BANGHOFF
AVIATION...TEARE
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