870
FXUS61 KCTP 171620
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1220 PM EDT SAT OCT 17 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) FROST/FREEZE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
2) EXTENDED STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: FROST/FREEZE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING
BANDS OF NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED CLOUDS OFF OF THE GREAT LAKES
CONTINUE TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. THIS HIGH WILL SET UP
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR A WIDESPREAD FROST/FREEZE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 25-30
DEGREE RANGE FOR MUCH OF THE REGION TONIGHT AND A FREEZE WARNING
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL ZONES EXCEPT FOR MCKEAN COUNTY WHERE
THE GROWING SEASON HAS ALREADY ENDED. THE OVERNIGHT FROST/FREEZE
RISK WILL CONTINUE FOR PORTIONS OF CPA INTO NEXT WEEK, BUT
ADDITIONAL HEADLINE ISSUANCES WILL DEPEND ON WHERE THE GROWING
SEASON REMAINS ACTIVE AFTER TONIGHT'S FREEZE.
------------------------------------------------------------
KEY MESSAGE 2: EXTENDED STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER NEXT WEEK
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF A NOR'EASTER
DEVELOPING ALONG A STALLED FRONT OFF OF THE NC COAST WILL
PROVIDE ANOTHER EXTENDED STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER IN CPA SUNDAY
THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING HOW CLOSE THE NOR'EASTER TRACKS TO THE COAST, BUT THE
VAST MAJORITY OF MODEL SOLUTIONS KEEP AND PRECIP ASSOCIATED
WITH THE STORM OFF TO OUR EAST. THIS PATTERN WILL FEATURE
SEASONABLY WARM DAYS, CHILLY NIGHTS, AND LOW HUMIDITY.
AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF BFD WHERE SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY OF
THE AIRFIELD HAVE BROUGHT CEILINGS BACK TOWARDS MVFR THRESHOLDS
AS OF 10Z. SHOWERS AT BFD APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE
NEAR-TERM; HOWEVER, SHOWERS APPEAR TO BE MAINLY JUST WEST AND
EAST OF THE AIRFIELD BASED ON RECENT RADAR TRENDS SO HAVE JUST
OUTLINED A COUPLE OF HOURS OF VCSH GIVEN LOW CERTAINTY ON
RAINFALL AT THE AIRFIELD. THERE WILL BE SOME LOW-END CHANCES FOR
JST/AOO TO BRIEFLY GO TOWARDS MVFR THRESHOLDS GIVEN LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE AND CLOUD DECKS HOVERING AROUND MVFR THRESHOLDS, BUT
GENERAL THOUGHT IS THEY WILL LIFT TOWARDS VFR AFTER 12Z
SATURDAY. ELSEWHERE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE VIRTUALLY CERTAIN
THROUGHOUT THE 12Z TAF PERIOD BASED ON CONSENSUS OF ALL MODEL
GUIDANCE. HREF DOES OUTLINE SOME POTENTIAL FOR VALLEY FOG NEAR
BFD IN THE 09Z-12Z TIMEFRAME SUNDAY; HOWEVER, GIVEN THE DRY AIR
IN PLACE POST-COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE, NOT ENTIRELY SOLD ON FOG
REACHING INTO THE AIRFIELD AT THIS TIME. THAT BEING SAID, HAVE
OUTLINED VCFG FOR THE FOG POTENTIAL IN THE VALLEYS SURROUNDING
THE AIRFIELD WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE IN VISIBILITY/CEILING
RESTRICTIONS AT THE AIRFIELD.
OUTLOOK...
SUN-WED...AM FOG POSSIBLE; OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL.
CLIMATE
DAILY RECORD MAX TEMPERATURE OF 83 DEGREES SET AT ALTOONA
YESTERDAY 10/16. THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS 81 SET IN 1962.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR PAZ004-006-
010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-
056>059-063>066.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...BAUCO
KEY MESSAGES...STEINBUGL/BAUCO
DISCUSSION...STEINBUGL/BAUCO
AVIATION...BEATY
CLIMATE...STEINBUGL/BEATY
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