119
FXUS61 KCTP 231520
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1120 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* MINOR MODIFICATIONS MADE FOR THIS FORECAST CYCLE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) CHILLY MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND WITH PERIODS OF RAIN/DRIZZLE.
RECORD CHALLENGING COLD MAX TEMPERATURES ALMOST A SLAM DUNK
TODAY IN MANY LOCATIONS ACROSS CENTRAL PA.
2) TEMPERATURES TREND WARMER INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, BUT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: CHILLY MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND WITH RECORD CHALLENGING
COLD MAX TEMPERATURES ALMOST A SLAM DUNK TODAY IN MANY
LOCATIONS ACROSS CENTRAL PA.
PRIMARY BELT OF ANOMALOUS EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AT 850 MB WILL
BE SHIFTING NORTH AND EAST OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON, CARRYING
AWAY THE STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST RAIN WITH IT.
THE ANOMALOUS ESE FLOW IN THE 925-900 MB LAYER (AND LLVL CAD
REGIME) STAYS IN TACT LONGER OVER THE REGION, BEFORE WINDS IN
THAT LAYER GRADUALLY VEER MORE TO SE THEN SSE RESPECTIVELY
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
THE EVOLUTION OF THESE SPEED MAXES AT 925-850 MB WILL WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT PERIODS OF LIGHTER RAIN/DRIZZLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
ALL OF THIS RAIN IS EXPECTED TO LARGELY BE BENEFICIAL,
PARTICULARLY FOR LOCATIONS THAT ARE EXPERIENCING D1/D2 DROUGHT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY,
BUT RAIN IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE NEARLY AS WIDESPREAD AS IT IS
TODAY. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE REGION LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, POTENTIALLY BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF STEADY
RAINFALL ALONG WITH IT.
THE MODERATELY GUSTY EAST/SOUTHEAST WIND WILL MAKE IT FEEL
DOWNRIGHT DREARY/RAW, UNSEASONABLY CHILLY AND PRETTY MISERABLE
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR - ESPECIALLY FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID 40S TO THE LOW 50S WITH WINDS GUSTING BETWEEN 20 AND 35
MPH AT TIMES.
THE 2-3 DAY COOL STRETCH WILL CERTAINLY BE NOTICEABLE FOLLOWING
AN EARLY TASTE OF SUMMER, BUT IT WON'T HAVE STAYING POWER WITH
TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO MODERATE AND TREND ABOVE NORMAL INTO
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
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KEY MESSAGE 2: TEMPERATURES TREND WARMER INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK, BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE.
TEMPERATURES BECOME MUCH WARMER FOR MONDAY WITH HIGHS EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S AS THE CAD WEDGE BEGINS TO MOVE
OUT OF THE AREA. THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES INTO THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK, WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S
BY WEDNESDAY. WHILE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY,
A FEW SHOWERS OR POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH
DAY. THERE IS SOME SIGNAL FOR TEMPERATURES TO DROP BACK INTO THE
60S AND LOW 70S BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS
TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH.
AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
LARGE AREA OF STEADY LIGHT TO MODERATE STRATIFORM RAIN THAT
IMPACTED THE REGION DURING THE EARLY TO MID MORNING HOURS WILL
LIFT NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL PA AIRFIELDS THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. PERIODS OF GENERALLY LIGHTER RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL
PERSIST FOR THE REST OF TODAY.
WIDESPREAD IFR AND SOME PERIODS OF MVFR WILL PREVAIL THIS
AFTERNOON AND LOWER TO MAINLY IFR/LIFR BY LATE THIS EVENING AND
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.
IN TERMS OF WINDS, BREEZY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP AT ALL
AIRFIELDS TONIGHT. HIGHEST GUSTS (20-30 KTS) ARE EXPECTED IN THE
LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND NW MOUNTAINS, WITH A SECONDARY MAX NEAR
THE SUSQ VALLEY. DESPITE GUSTY SURFACE WINDS, A VERY STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET ALOFT WILL LEAD TO LLWS CONCERNS AT ALL AIRFIELDS
THROUGH THE MAJORITY (OR ALL) OF THE CURRENT 12Z TAF PACKAGE.
OUTLOOK...
SUN...MINOR IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS AS RAIN TAPERS
OFF BY AROUND NOON
MON...IFR/MVFR EARLY, THEN MVFR IN LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
TUE...POSSIBLE MORNING FOG/LOW VISIBILITY, THEN VFR.
WED...MAINLY VFR, SOME SCATTERED SHRA COULD BRING
RESTRICTIONS.
CLIMATE
DAILY RECORD LOW MAXIMUM & FORECAST TEMPERATURES FOR MAY 23:
LOCATION RECORD (YEAR) FORECAST HIGH
HARRISBURG 54 (1982) 52
WILLIAMSPORT 57 (1982) 50
ALTOONA 52 (2005) 49
BRADFORD 45 (1963) 46
STATE COLLEGE 53 (1968) 49
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...LAMBERT/BAUCO
KEY MESSAGES...LAMBERT/STEINBUGL/BAUCO
DISCUSSION...LAMBERT/STEINBUGL/BAUCO
AVIATION...LAMBERT/BANGHOFF/COLBERT
CLIMATE...STEINBUGL
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