153
FXUS61 KCTP 120117
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
817 PM EST SUN JAN 11 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* SQUALLS HAVE BEEN SQUASHED.
* LIMITED LAKE EFFECT FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
* WIND NOT QUITE ADVY LEVEL.
KEY MESSAGES
1) GUSTY WINDS DIMINISHING FURTHER THIS EVENING.
2) LAKE EFFECT AND UPSLOPE SNOW WILL BE LIMITED IN TIME
3) QUIETER/MAINLY DRY WEATHER TO START THE WEEK, WITH
MODERATING TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
4) THE POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR A STORM SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND IMPACT PENNSYLVANIA LATER IN THE WEEK, WITH
SNOW OR A WINTRY MIX. HOWEVER, A WIDE RANGE OF OUTCOMES ARE
STILL ON THE TABLE, INCLUDING THAT THE STORM WILL FAIL TO FORM
AT ALL. STAY TUNED FOR LATER FORECASTS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
ALMOST EVERY BIT OF REFLECTIVITY HAS BEEN SQUEEZED OUT OF THE
CLOUDS AS OF 7 PM. NO ADDITIONAL SQUALLS SHOULD OCCUR AS THE
TROUGH SWINGING SE THRU THE CWA HAS SUBSIDENCE BEHIND IT.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
LAKE EFFECT THUS FAR IS NOT GETTING FAR INTO PA, IF AT ALL.
WHILE THE FETCH OFF THE LAKE IS STILL FAVORABLE FOR SHSN, IT
WON'T LAST VERY LONG AT ALL. THERE IS CLEARING NEARING ERIE, PA
ALREADY. BY 03Z, THE TALLER CONVECTIVE CLOUDS WILL BE MAINLY N
OF THE NY BORDER. ALSO, THE UPSLOPE SNOW INTO THE LAURELS IS
NOT LONG FOR THIS WORLD, EITHER. PBZ RADAR ALREADY SHOWING A
GOOD DECREASE IN REFLECTIVITY WITH THE PLUME OF MOISTURE
REMAINING OVER WRN PA. CLEARING IS GOING TO TRY TO MOVE INTO WRN
PA, BUT WON'T OVERNIGHT. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE
TRAPPED UNDER THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION OVER WRN PA TO KEEP
UPSLOPE CLOUDS IN PLACE OVER THE ALLEGHENIES AND LAURELS THROUGH
THE MORNING. HOWEVER, LITTLE IF ANYTHING WILL BE FALLING OUT OF
THE CLOUDS AFTER 06Z. SO, THE EXP TIME OF THE ADVY FOR SOMERSET
CO LOOKS FINE AS IS. WE MAY EVEN GO AHEAD AND CANX IT EARLY IF
TRENDS CONTINUE.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
QUIETER/MAINLY DRY WEATHER TO START THE WEEK, WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. TWO WEAK WAVES CROSSING THE
LOWER LAKES WILL ENHANCE THE CLOUDS OVER THE NRN TIER BRIEFLY
MONDAY AND AGAIN TUESDAY. BUT, NO MEASURABLE PRECIP IS EXPECTED
IN THE CTP CWA FROM EITHER WAVE. TEMPS SHOULD WARM BACK INTO THE
40S FOR MOST ON TUESDAY, AS WARM ADVECTION COMMENCES ON
INCREASING SW FLOW.
KEY MESSAGE 4...
THE POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR A STORM SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND IMPACT PENNSYLVANIA LATER IN THE WEEK, WITH
SNOW OR A WINTRY MIX. HOWEVER, A WIDE RANGE OF OUTCOMES ARE
STILL ON THE TABLE, INCLUDING THAT THE STORM WILL FAIL TO FORM
AT ALL. STAY TUNED FOR LATER FORECASTS.
AN INITIAL MID-WEEK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE, ACCOMPANIED BY RAIN
SHOWERS, COULD TURN MORE INTERESTING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY, AS THE FRONT STALLS JUST EAST AND SOUTH OF THE
COMMONWEALTH. SOME MODEL PROJECTIONS BRING A SURFACE WAVE
NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT, WITH WINTRY PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING
BACK INTO AT LEAST PARTS OF CENTRAL PA. LATEST NBM SUGGESTS
ROUGHLY A 20 PCT CHANCE OF AT LEAST WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
LEVEL SNOWFALL, WITH A LARGE SPREAD IN POTENTIAL ACCUMULATION.
KEY MODEL DIFFERENCES REMAIN, AND SENSIBLE WEATHER DURING THIS
PERIOD WILL BE DRIVEN BY SMALL-SCALE SENSITIVITIES IN THE UPPER-
LEVEL PATTERN, WHICH ARE INHERENTLY HARD TO PIN DOWN THIS FAR
OUT. PLEASE STAY TUNED FOR LATER FORECAST UPDATES.
AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
SNOWFALL ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA HAS LARGELY DWINDLED WITH
REMAINING MENTIONS AT BFD POSSIBLE THROUGH ~03Z MONDAY BEFORE
TAPERING OFF AREA WIDE. RECENT RAP MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS LOW-END
MVFR TO HIGH-END IFR CONDITIONS AT BFD/JST, WHICH CONTINUES TO
SEEM PLAUSIBLE BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF HREF/GLAMP MODEL GUIDANCE
SO HAVE CONTINUED MENTIONS THROUGH ~14Z MONDAY BEFORE
IMPROVEMENT BEFORE ALL MODEL GUIDANCE POINTS TOWARDS A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR. ELSEWHERE, BORDERLINE MVFR/VFR CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED AT AOO/UNV OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS BASED ON A
NBM/HREF/RAP MODEL BLEND THROUGH ~15Z MONDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ELSEWHERE IN THE NEAR TERM WITH FAIR
AGREEMENT IN ALL MODEL GUIDANCE. WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AFTER 18Z MONDAY.
WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE NEAR TERM WITH GUSTS
UPWARDS OF 30 TO 40 KTS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGHLANDS
THROUGH ~06Z MONDAY. SOME UNDERPERFORMANCE COULD BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS JST/AOO AS A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION LIMITS WIND GUSTS;
HOWEVER GUSTS OVER 20 KTS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. BREEZY WINDS
CONTINUE THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE 00Z TAF PACKAGE, WITH ALL MODEL
GUIDANCE POINTING TOWARDS WIND GUSTS DECREASING TOWARDS THE END
OF THIS TAF CYCLE.
OUTLOOK...
TUE-WED...MAINLY VFR.
THU-FRI...CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS, PERHAPS MIXING WITH RAIN IN
THE SOUTHEAST.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR PAZ024-025-033-034.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR PAZ033.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...DANGELO/COLBERT
KEY MESSAGES...JUREWICZ/DANGELO/COLBERT
DISCUSSION...JUREWICZ/DANGELO/COLBERT
AVIATION...NPB
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