833   
FXUS61 KCTP 011918  
AFDCTP  
  
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA  
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY  
318 PM EDT TUE APR 1 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS  
  
* HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO BUILD INTO THE REGION THIS  
  AFTERNOON WILL BRING SUNSHINE, LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY, WITH  
  CURRENT GUSTY WINDS DIMINISHING.  
* DAILY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOLLOW FOR THE SECOND HALF   
  OF THE WEEK AS ANOTHER LOW TRACKS WEST OF PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH  
  THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND THE   
  TRAILING FRONT STALLS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA.  
  
  
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/  
  
HIGH PRESSURE NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY EARLY AFTERNOON WILL KEEP   
CONDITIONS PRECIPITATION-FREE. AS THE MAIN CENTER HIGH   
PROGRESSES EASTWARD, CURRENT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL SWITCH   
EASTERLY BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE   
ON WEDNESDAY AS EASTERLY FLOW ADVECTS ATLANTIC MOISTURE INLAND   
INTO CENTRAL PA.  
  
AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT WILL BRING SOME HIGH CLOUDS OUT AHEAD  
OF IT DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ON WEDNESDAY, AND THE FRONT  
ITSELF BRINGING PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE FRONT  
FALLS APART OVER CENTRAL PA, WITH LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS,  
WEDNESDAY EVENING. HIGHEST PRECIPITATION VALUES ARE CONCENTRATED  
OVER THE NW SECTOR OF CENTRAL PA, AROUND A QUARTER INCH OF  
RAINFALL, AND DECREASE AS YOU GO SOUTH AND EASTWARD.  
  
  
   
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/  
  
AS MENTIONED IN THE NEAR-TERM SECTION, THE WARM FRONT FALLS  
APART OVER CENTRAL PA, WITH LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS LEFT  
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CENTRAL PA WILL START OUT IN THE WARM SECTOR  
FOR THURSDAY MORNING AND INTO EARLY AFTERNOON, RESULTING IN HIGH  
TEMPERATURES INCREASING INTO THE MID TO HIGH 70S EAST OF THE  
ALLEGHENY MOUNTAINS, AND LOW TO MID 70S ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE  
MOUNTAINS.   
  
A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE LOW PRESSURE   
SYSTEM MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL APPROACH THE  
REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE MAIN LOW MATURES, THE COLD   
FRONT FALLS APART OVER CENTRAL PA, MUCH LIKE ITS AFOREMENTIONED   
WARM FRONT COUNTERPART. TOTAL PRECIPITATION FROM THIS FRONT IS  
RATHER LOW; MAYBE A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY  
IS LIMITED, THERE MAY A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER WITH THE PASSAGE  
OF THE FRONT.  
  
WHAT MAY GIVE THE AREA MORE PRECIPITATION, RATHER THAN THE FRONT  
ITSELF, IS THE FEATURE THAT SETS UP HEADING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.  
WITH A STRENGTHENING BERMUDA HIGH, A PLUME OF MOISTURE  
STRETCHING JUST FROM THE GULF WILL ALLOW FOR THE SOUTHWEST  
PORTION OF CENTRAL PA TO GET A QUARTER TO UP TO A HALF INCH OF  
RAINFALL, AND ELSEWHERE A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH, THURSDAY NIGHT  
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THIS PLUME WILL FALL APART A BIT AS THE  
BERMUDA HIGH WEAKENS ON FRIDAY.  
  
AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT, TEMPERATURES WILL DECREASE  
FOR FRIDAY INTO THE LOW TO UPPER 60S.  
  
  
   
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/  
  
THE OVERALL PATTERN FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS MESSY AND  
WET, TO SAY THE LEAST. MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES AND SMALL  
DISTURBANCES WILL BRING ROUNDS OF RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE LONG  
TERM PERIOD. DEEP TROUGHING OVER THE GREAT LAKES HEADING INTO  
EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BRING COLDER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES  
ACROSS THE REGION. IF GUIDANCE MAINTAINS THIS CURRENT  
TEMPERATURE TREND, PRECIPITATION IN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF  
CENTRAL PA MAY BE IN THE FORM OF SNOWFALL, OR MOSTLY  
SNOWFALL/WET SNOWFALL.   
  
  
   
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/  
  
LOW STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE FINALLY BROKEN UP ACROSS CENTRAL  
PA. LINGERING MVFR CLOUDS FOR KBFD WILL CONTINUE FOR A COUPLE  
MORE HOURS COURTESY OF FLOW OFF OF LAKE ERIE. AS HIGH PRESSURE  
BUILDS IN, CURRENT GUSTY WINDS WILL DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT FEW  
HOURS. GUSTY WINDS WILL RETURN TOWARDS THE END OF THE 18Z TAF  
PACKAGE AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES, AS WELL AS INCREASING  
LIKELIHOOD FOR RESTRICTIONS AFTER THE END OF THIS 18Z PACKAGE.  
  
OUTLOOK...   
  
WED...RAIN MOVES IN WEST-TO-EAST LATE. RESTRICTIONS LIKELY PM.  
  
THU...MVFR POSS IN WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS. TSRA POSS, MAINLY S.  
CFROPA AFTN/EVE.  
  
FRI...MVFR CIGS AND VISBY EXPECTED, MAINLY S.  
  
SAT...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS; IMPACTS LIKELY.  
  
SUN...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS; IMPACTS LIKELY.  
  
  
   
FIRE WEATHER  
  
COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE BEGINNING OF APRIL  
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS PA. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL FALL  
INTO THE 20S ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL PA THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENT BREEZY   
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON,  
DISPLACED FROM RH VALUES THAT WILL DECREASE A LITTLE MORE THIS  
AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FORECAST AND COORDINATE  
WITH BOF AND ANF FOR ANY POTENTIAL NEED FOR FIRE WEATHER   
STATEMENTS. THE RH WILL TREND UPWARD ON WEDNESDAY AS EASTERLY   
FLOW ADVECTS ATLANTIC MOISTURE INLAND.  
  
  
   
CLIMATE  
  
CLOSING OUT VERY MILD MARCH 2025. BELOW ARE THE RANKINGS AND  
DEPARTURES FROM THE HISTORICAL AVERAGE THROUGH 3/30:  
  
SITE                AVG. MARCH TEMP               RANK  
HARRISBURG            46.5F (+4.9F)               12TH WARMEST   
WILLIAMSPORT          44.8F (+6.2F)                9TH WARMEST  
ALTOONA               44.4F (+5.9F)                7TH WARMEST   
BRADFORD              40.2F (+7.3F)               T3RD WARMEST  
  
STATE COLLEGE COOP SITE STCP1 RECORDED THE 10TH WARMEST MARCH ON  
RECORD WITH AN AVERAGE MONTHLY TEMPERATURE OF 43.3F.  
  
  
   
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
  
NONE.  
  
  
  
  
  
SYNOPSIS...LARDEO  
NEAR TERM...LARDEO   
SHORT TERM...LARDEO  
LONG TERM...LARDEO   
AVIATION...LARDEO  
FIRE WEATHER...BANGHOFF/GARTNER/LARDEO   
CLIMATE...STEINBUGL  
 
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