984
FXUS61 KCTP 242340
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
740 PM EDT FRI JUL 24 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
LOWERED DEWPOINTS ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL PA SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGES
1) PLEASANT/DRY PATTERN WITH COMFORTABLY LOW DAYTIME HUMIDITY
CONTINUES INTO THE LAST WEEKEND OF JULY.
2) TURNING MORE HUMID AND UNSETTLED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
THE BEST ODDS FOR STORMS MONDAY PM THROUGH TUESDAY PM.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: PLEASANT/DRY PATTERN WITH COMFORTABLY LOW
DAYTIME HUMIDITY CONTINUES INTO THE LAST WEEKEND OF JULY.
NICE SUMMER EVENING OUTSIDE, WITH JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS AND
LOW HUMIDITY LEVELS. LAST YEAR WE WENT FROM A VERY HUMID JULY
TO LOW DEWPOINT AIR FOR MOST OF AUGUST. NOT LIKELY TO DO THIS
AGAIN, BUT AT LEAST FOR THE TIME BEING THE LESS HUMID AND
MAINLY DRY WEATHER SHOULD HOLD.
MORE INFORMATION BELOW.
CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE INTO TONIGHT, BUT NO RAIN IS EXPECTED.
DRY WEATHER CONTINUES FOR THE MAJORITY OF CPA THROUGH SATURDAY
WITH JUST A LOW CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER/T-STORM ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE ALLEGHENY MTNS DURING THE AFTERNOON
PEAK HEATING CYCLE. WE ADJUSTED DEWPOINTS LOWER FOR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON OVER EAST CENTRAL PA BASED ON THE HIRES MODEL SIGNAL.
KEY MESSAGE 2: TURNING MORE HUMID AND UNSETTLED INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH THE BEST ODDS FOR STORMS MONDAY PM THROUGH TUESDAY PM.
SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING SOUTHEAST AROUND THE PROMINENT UPPER
HIGH CENTERED OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL HELP TO
EVENTUALLY CARVE OUT A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT A GRADUAL INCREASE IN SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH PEAK POPS
IN THE MONDAY PM-TUESDAY PM WINDOW BASED ON THE LATEST ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE. THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME LEVEL OF SEVERE AND/OR
EXCESSIVE RAIN RISKS TO MANAGE THAT ARE LARGELY DEPENDENT ON
TIMING/UPSTREAM SYSTEM EVOLUTION AT THIS POINT.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE 00Z TAF
PERIOD, WITH RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN -SHRA (MAINLY KBFD/KJST)
AND FROM LOWERING CEILINGS DUE TO LIGHT SOUTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW
ON SATURDAY (KBFD).
RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS OUR WESTERNMOST TERMINALS (MAINLY
KBFD/KJST, AND TO A LESSER EXTENT, KUNV/KAOO) DURING THE DAY ON
SATURDAY WILL DRAW MOISTURE (PWATS BETWEEN 1-1.5") FROM THE
SOUTH, RESULTING IN SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY. WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENTS & MEAGER FORCING SUGGESTS DISORGANIZED SHOWERS WITH
MINIMAL LIGHTNING, WITH SHOWER ACTIVITY MOST LIKELY AT KBFD/KJST
AND SPOTTIER AT KUNV/KAOO. MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE AT KBFD
DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY GIVEN LIGHT SOUTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW
+ SHOWER ACTIVITY, WITH VFR CEILINGS FAVORED ELSEWHERE.
OUTLOOK...
SUN...VFR FAVORED WITH A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE, MAINLY
OVER WESTERN-CENTRAL PA.
MON-WED...RESTRICTIONS LIKELY IN SHOWERS/STORMS.
CLIMATE
SEVERAL RECORDS FELL THIS FRIDAY MORNING.
BRADFORD HAD A LOW OF 41 DEGREES, BREAKING THE OLD RECORD OF
44 DEGREES SET IN 1993.
ALTOONA HAD A LOW OF 47 DEGREES, BREAKING THE OLD RECORD OF
50 DEGREES SET IN 1957.
MULTIPLE RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES WERE SET FOR JULY 23RD ACROSS
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA:
* ALTOONA SET A RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE OF 47 DEGREES WAS SET,
BREAKING THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF 50 DEGREES SET BACK IN 1981.
* BRADFORD TIED A RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE OF 38 DEGREES WHICH
WAS PREVIOUSLY SET IN 1981.
* JOHNSTOWN TIED A RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE OF 49 DEGREES WHICH
WAS PREVIOUSLY SET IN 1983.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...STEINBUGL
KEY MESSAGES...STEINBUGL
DISCUSSION...STEINBUGL/MARTIN
AVIATION...STEINBUGL
CLIMATE...TEARE
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