745
FXUS61 KCTP 121552
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1152 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MINOR CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST
KEY MESSAGES
1) HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY AND
ADJACENT SCENT PA THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. RELIEF SHOULD BE
HERE FOR SAT.
2) THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FLARE UP THIS AFTERNOON AND
PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS. HIGHEST COVERAGE OF AND STRENGTH OF
STORMS WILL BE IN THE SERN THIRD OF PA.
3) MORE STORMS WILL MOVE INTO PA SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY AND
ADJACENT SCENT PA THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. RELIEF SHOULD BE
HERE FOR SAT
AS EXPECTED FOR MANY DAYS, THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN
HIGH THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY OVER THE SE. OVERALL,
THERE ARE JUST MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TEMPS/DEWPOINTS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON.
THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT LATE TODAY/TONIGHT WILL USHER IN
LOWER DEWPOINT AIR AND MAKE IT FEEL MUCH LESS MUGGY ON SAT.
AFTERNOON RH IN THE 35-45% RANGE WILL FEEL REFRESHING AFTER A
COUPLE OF VERY HUMID DAYS. TEMPS WILL STILL BE HOT, GETTING INTO
THE 80S AND PERHAPS NEAR 90F SAT.
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KEY MESSAGE 2: SCATTERED SHOWERS AND MORE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FLARE UP THIS AFTERNOON AND
CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS (MAINLY
ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY WITH RESPECT TO OUR CWA).
LLVL FLOW IS BROADLY DIVERGENT ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL PA LATE
THIS MORNING WITH LAYER CLOUDS SPREADING INTO WRN PA AND THE NW
MTNS JUST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
THERE APPEARS TO BE A NARROW WINDOW IN TIME AND SPACE FOR TSRA
WITH ROBUST UPDRAFTS TO DEVELOP AND THAT WILL BE MAINLY ACROSS
THE MIDDLE AND LOWER SUSQ VALLEY IN THE 18-21Z WINDOW WHERE HREF
MUCAPE IS BETWEEN 1750-2250 J/KG.
THE CONVERGENCE AT THE SFC IS POOR WITH NEARLY UNI-DIRECTIONAL
FLOW AS OF THE LATE MORNING. MANY OF THE MODELS DEVELOP FEW, IF
ANY, STORMS NW OF STATE COLLEGE - AND SOME NOT EVEN UNTIL PAST
HARRISBURG. POPS WILL BE A GENERIC 30-50PCT ACROSS THE BOARD
TODAY BASED ON EXPECTED COVERAGE.
THE SPC SLIGHT RISK REMAINS OVER APPROXIMATELY THE SE HALF OF
THE CWA, BUT EXCLUDES THE FAR NW ZONES. THERE IS EVEN A 30% CHC
OF TSTM WIND DMG W/IN 25SM OF ANY GIVEN POINT OVER THE EXTREME
SE PART OF OUR CWA. THAT IS A BIT HIGHER COVERAGE THAN WE
USUALLY EXPECT ON A SLIGHT RISK DAY. SEEMS LOGICAL, THOUGH, WITH
NAMNEST CAPE AT LNS NEARING 3000J/KG, AND MODERATE 30KTS OF
DEEP LAYER SHEAR. WBZ IS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN IDEAL FOR LARGE
HAIL, SO THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE WIND DAMAGE FROM INCREASINGLY
ORGANIZED CLUSTERS WHICH IS NOT MUCH DIFFERENT THAN
YESTERDAY/THURS. THE SLIGHTLY STRONGER WIND ALOFT MAY HELP SOME
OF THE STORMS IN NERN PA SPIN A BIT AND YIELD A NON-ZERO TORNADO
THREAT THERE.
WITH STORM COVERAGE EXPECTED TO BE SPARSE OVER SOME OR MOST OF
THE CWA TODAY, THE RISK FOR ANY DOWNPOURS HITTING THE WETTER
AREAS OF THE CWA IS LOW. SO, THE RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING IS
MINIMAL. SOME PLACES TOOK 2 INCHES OF PRECIP YESTERDAY WITHOUT
MUCH OF A BLIP UPWARD ON LOCAL STREAM GAUGES. OF COURSE, THE
CUMULATIVE EFFECTS OF REPEATED RAINFALL WILL LIKELY LOWER FFG
OVERALL.
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KEY MESSAGE 3: MORE STORMS WILL MOVE INTO PA SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
AFTER THE DRIER SAT, THE FLOW BACKS AND THE MORE-SOUTHERLY FLOW
BRINGS MORE-HUMID AIR BACK INTO PA. THE MUGGINESS WILL BE
NOTICED THE MOST IN THE SE, WITH THE TD JUST NEARING 60F IN THE
AFTN. A VERY NARROW JET BUCKLES JUST A LITTLE AND PROVIDES
SUFFICIENT DYNAMICS FOR ANOTHER AFTERNOON AND EVENING ROUND OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ARRIVAL LOOKS MID-LATE AFTN NW WITH THE
STORMS CROSSING THE CWA AND EXITING TO THE SE BY 10-11PM. SOME
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER DYNAMICS. THE NEXT VISIT FROM ORGANIZED STORMS WILL LIKELY
NOT BE UNTIL AT LEAST MID WEEK (THURS).
AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
BKN-OVC DECK OF STRATOCU WAS STREAMING QUICKLY ENE INTO THE
ALLEGHENY PLATEAU REGION OF NW PA WITH HIGHER BASED STRATOCU
ENTERING THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS. ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS AND SUSQ
VALLEY, WIDESPREAD VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE REST
OF TODAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA OF CLOUDS BREAKS UP BREAKS
UP IN THE DRYING DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND MORE PRONOUNCED LLVL
RIDGING.
HAVE SOME VCSH IN MOST OF THE TAFS LATER THIS AFTERNOON, BUT
EVEN THAT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS LOOKING LESS LIKELY ATTM.
A BREAK ON SATURDAY, BUT A STRONGER COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY
WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE STRONG STORMS ON SUNDAY.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR.
SUNDAY...VFR FAVORED EARLY, WITH RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AS FROPA
BRINGS CHANCE OF -SHRA/-TSRA LATER IN THE DAY.
MONDAY...ADDITIONAL SCATTERED -SHRA AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE.
TUESDAY...STILL A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ036-057-059-
063>066.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...LAMBERT/DANGELO
KEY MESSAGES...LAMBERT/DANGELO
DISCUSSION...LAMBERT/DANGELO
AVIATION...LAMBERT/MARTIN
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