479
FXUS61 KCTP 191843
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
243 PM EDT FRI JUN 19 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
INCREASED CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON AND SAT AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH.
KEY MESSAGES
1) ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND A COUPLE THUNDERSHOWERS FRI
AND SAT, OTHERWISE BREEZY BUT PLEASANT WITH HIGHS JUST A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
2) AFTER A DRY SUNDAY, MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN AND A CHANCE OF A
THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND A COUPLE
THUNDERSHOWERS FRI AND SAT, OTHERWISE BREEZY BUT PLEASANT WITH
HIGHS JUST A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
TODAY AND SAT WILL FEATURE A MODERATELY TIGHT LLVL PRESSURE
GRADIENT RESULTING IN BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH FREQUENT NW WIND
GUSTS IN THE 20-30 MPH RANGE.
WITH SEVERAL WEAK TROUGHS ALOFT MOVING SOUTHEAST IN THE DEEP NW
FLOW, EXPECT THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW BRIEF SHOWERS, MAINLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS TODAY AND WITH A BIT MORE SOUTHEASTWARD
EXTEND ON SATURDAY. MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE STEEP ENOUGH FOR A
FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER IN THE TALLEST SHOWERS (HIGHER RISK AS
YOU GO NORTH). TEMPS TODAY AND SATURDAY WILL TO BE JUST A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH PLENTY OF DIURNAL CUMULUS.
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KEY MESSAGE 2: AFTER A DRY SUNDAY, MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN AND A
CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT AND SKIES WILL RANGE FROM
MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY. IF SKIES ARE CLEAR ENOUGH, THERE
COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG BY SUNDAY MORNING. AFTER A SLIGHTLY
WARMER DAY ON SUNDAY WITH LIGHTER WIND AND A FAIR AMOUNT OF
SUNSHINE, MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NE FROM THE LOWER OHIO
RIVER VALLEY.
LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR BETWEEN 0.75 AND 1.50" OF RAIN
WITH THIS SYSTEM. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE RELATIVELY SMALL SIZE OF
THIS DISTURBANCE, WE'LL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON BUST
POTENTIAL IF THE TRACK CHANGES AND BRINGS THE HEAVIEST RAIN
ELSEWHERE.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW, TUE AND
WED ARE LIKELY TO BE ON THE DRY SIDE. LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE
POINTS TOWARDS A POTENTIALLY ACTIVE END TO THE WEEK AS MULTIPLE
DISTURBANCES RIDE ALONG A BAROCLINIC ZONE BISECTING THE MID
ATLANTIC.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE CURRENT 18Z TAF PERIOD. SOME
BRIEF SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON, BUT
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES REMAIN UNDER 20%. BREEZY CONDITIONS
THIS AFTERNOON DON'T LOOK AS STRONG AS YESTERDAY'S BUT GUSTS IN
THE MID-20KTS SHOULD STILL OCCUR. CALMER WINDS WILL SET IN
OVERNIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED UNDER HIGHER
PRESSURE.
VFR PREVAILS TOMORROW AS WELL WITH SCATTERED FAIR WEATHER
CUMULUS, IN THE 3-6KFT, RANGE EXPECTED IN TERMS OF CLOUD COVER.
MODEL GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT SOME SHOWER POSSIBILITIES FOR SOME
OF THE WESTERN TAF SITES WITH PROBABILITIES AROUND OR BELOW 30%.
LIKE ANYTHING TODAY, THESE AREN'T ANTICIPATED TO BRING WITH THEM
ANY PREVAILING RESTRICTIONS GIVEN THEIR SPORADIC NATURE.
PROBABILITIES REMAIN LESS THAN 20% FOR ANY PRECIPITATION TO
OCCUR.
OUTLOOK...
SUN...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS THE FAR WEST, AND AROUND OR SHORTLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
STATE.
MON...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITH A FEW PERIODS OF RAIN/OR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
TUE...LOWER CHANCES OF SHOWERS, MAINLY VFR.
WED...MAINLY VFR, WATCHING FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES THOUGH IN
THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...COLBERT
KEY MESSAGES...COLBERT
DISCUSSION...LAMBERT/COLBERT
AVIATION...LAMBRECH
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