459  
FXUS61 KCTP 080627  
AFDCTP  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA  
227 AM EDT TUE JUL 8 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS  
 
* COLD FRONT STALLS OVERHEAD TONIGHT AND LIES THERE FOR A COUPLE  
OF DAYS.  
* THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FOCUSED PRIMARILY OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN  
HALF OF THE COMMONWEALTH ON TUESDAY.  
* SEASONABLY WARM AND MUGGY FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH  
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS.  
 
 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/  
 
SMALL CLUSTERS OF STORMS STILL GOING ALONG/SE OF I-81. EXPECT  
THESE TO CONTINUE TO BE STRONG FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS WITH  
DCAPE STILL UP OVER 1000J AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF AROUND 30KTS  
PER LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS. THE STORMS OVER THE SW HAVE  
DIMINISHED TO RAIN.  
 
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS FADES OVERNIGHT WITH A GOOD SIGNAL FOR POST  
FRONTAL LOW CLOUDS OVER THE WESTERN MTNS AND AREAS OF FOG  
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN VALLEYS. ANOTHER WARM AND MUGGY  
NIGHT IN MOST LOCATIONS WITH LOW TEMPS IN THE 65-75F RANGE.  
 
 
   
SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/  
 
MAX TEMPS DROP 5-10 DEGREES BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE WESTERN  
1/2 OF THE CWA ON TUESDAY. THE LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS THE FRONT  
STALLING OUT OR BECOMING QUASI STATIONARY OVER CPA BY 00Z WED.  
LATEST D2 OUTLOOKS FROM SPC AND WPC INCLUDE AN UPGRADE TO SLIGHT  
RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS(LEVEL 2 OUT OF 5) AND EXCESSIVE RAINFALL  
(2 OUT OF 4) MAINLY FOR AREAS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE FRONTAL  
ZONE WHERE THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF MLCAPE AND 70+ DEWPOINTS.  
TALL OR THIN PROFILES SUGGEST HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL ALONG WITH  
WATER-LOADING/SEVERE DOWNDRAFT POTENTIAL. LATEST CAMS DEPICT  
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONGEALING INTO A LINE OF STORMS TUESDAY  
AFTERNOON WITH AN ATTENDANT INCREASED RISK FOR DAMAGING STRAIGHT  
LINE WINDS.  
 
AHEAD OF THE RAIN, THERE ALSO REMAINS SOME CONCERN FOR MAX HX  
VALUES TO REACH OR EXCEED THE CENTURY MARK IN THE LSV TUESDAY  
AFTERNOON. A HEAT ADVY MAY BE NEEDED; FOR NOW WE COORDINATED  
WITH PHI TO NOT INCLUDE ANY OF THE LEHIGH/LOWER SUSQ ZONES BUT  
WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO.  
 
BEST ODDS FOR A THUNDERSTORM ON WEDNESDAY REMAINS ALONG THE MD  
LINE WHERE THE BEST MOISTURE/INSTABILITY OVERLAY WILL EXIST. AT  
THIS TIME, T-STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NON-SEVERE WITH HEAVY  
RAIN RISK SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE. MAX/MIN  
TEMPS REMAIN SEASONABLY WARM FOR EARLY/MID JULY.  
 
 
   
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/  
 
POPS RISE AGAIN THURSDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE  
TROUGH. THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND IS MORE  
UNCERTAIN, WITH SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTING A BREAK IN THE  
UNSETTLED PATTERN, AND OTHERS SUGGESTING ACTIVE WEATHER  
CONTINUES. AN ACTIVE PATTERN WOULD FAVOR CONTINUE HEAT/HUMIDITY  
WHILE A QUIETER PATTERN COULD SUPPORT THE INTRUSION OF LOWER  
DEWPOINTS AND MORE REFRESHING CONDITIONS.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/  
 
A VERY SLUGGISH, WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM NEAR  
KBFD TO KPIT EARLY THIS MORNING, PRECEDED BY A SURFACE TROUGH  
FROM THE WYOMING VALLEY SOUTH TO THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY.  
 
A FEW SMALL CLUSTERS OF SLOW MOVING SHOWERS (WITH BRIEF HEAVY  
RAIN) WERE NOTED ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS  
THE NORTH-CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. MUGGY AIR WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN  
THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S COVERED MUCH OF THE SE 2/3RDS OF THE  
STATE AT 06Z AND THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AHEAD OF THIS  
FRONT ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SE PA, WHILE SLIGHTLY COOLER  
AIR WITH AN 8-10 DEG F DROP IN DEWPOINT VALUES WILL OCCUR ACROSS  
THE NW PART OF PA TODAY.  
 
PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE AT ALL TAF SITES EARLY THIS MORNING.  
HOWEVER, CLOUD COVER AND A LIGHT BREEZE FROM THE WEST EARLY  
TODAY WILL LIKELY NEGATE A SIGNIFICANT THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD  
FOG. IFR/LIFR CEILINGS ARE FAVORED FOR SEVERAL HOURS AT BFD AND  
JST WITH MVFR LIKELY AT IPT, UNV, AND AOO.  
 
A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP BY MIDDAY TODAY, BUT  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AS WE HEAD  
INTO THE AFTERNOON. BRIEF RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE EVERYWHERE  
EXCEPT BFD, WITH STORMS STARTING IN THE VICINITY OF A LINE  
EXTENDING FROM JST/AOO TO UNV TO IPT AND THEN MOVING EAST-  
SOUTHEASTWARD AND AFFECTING MDT AND LNS LATER IN THE  
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
 
TUE PM...SHOWERS FADE, FOG POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION  
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.  
 
WED...BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS AND RESTRICTIONS IN SOUTHERN PA.  
 
THU-SAT...POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY  
AFTN/EVE.  
 
 
   
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
FLOOD WATCH FROM 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING  
FOR PAZ057-059-065-066.  
 
 
 
 
 
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL/BANGHOFF  
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/STEINBUGL/BANGHOFF  
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL/BANGHOFF  
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/BANGHOFF  
AVIATION...LAMBERT  
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