425
FXUS61 KCTP 250324
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1124 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2020
SYNOPSIS
AN ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER PENNSYLVANIA
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHING FROM THE CAROLINAS IS LIKELY TO LIFT NORTH INTO THE
AREA NEXT THURSDAY, FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT SWEEPING IN FROM
THE GRT LKS AT THE END OF THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE IS LIKELY TO
BUILD INTO PENNSYLVANIA BY NEXT WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
LATE EVENING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS STRATUS FILLING AND
EXPANDING ACROSS CENTRAL PA DUE TO NOCTURNAL COOLING AND
CONTINUED MOIST SOUTHEAST FLOW OFF OF THE ATLANTIC. MOISTURE
LOOKS DEEP ENOUGH IN MODEL SOUNDINGS TO SUPPORT A BIT OF DRIZZLE
OVERNIGHT ALONG THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS FROM SOMERSET/BEDFORD
COUNTIES NORTHEAST TO SULLIVAN COUNTY. HOWEVER, THE LARGE MAJORITY
OF THE REGION SHOULD REMAIN DRY OVERNIGHT UNDER BUILDING UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE.
SCATTERED CONVECTION IS NOTED UPSTREAM OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO
THIS EVENING. THE SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CONVECTION IS
PROGGED TO PASS WELL NORTH OF PA. HOWEVER, THE TRAILING LOW
LEVEL JET AND PLUME OF HIGHER PWATS WILL SAG INTO WESTERN NY
BY DAWN. THEREFORE, WILL MAINTAIN JUST A CHANCE OF A SHOWER
TOWARD DAWN OVER THE NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES. CLOUD COVER,
FAIRLY HIGH DEWPOINTS AND A SOUTHEAST BREEZE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
FROM FALLING MUCH TONIGHT. EXPECT READINGS IN THE 50S AT DAWN.
MODEL RH PROFILES INDICATE MONDAY SHOULD DAWN CLOUDY OVER MOST
AREAS EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS. HOWEVER, THE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS
PROGGED TO WEAKEN AND VEER FROM SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH-SOUTHEAST,
SO EXPECT A BRIGHTER AFTERNOON OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
STATE THAN TODAY.
THE VAST MAJORITY OF CENTRAL PA SHOULD SEE RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS
ON MEMORIAL DAY DUE TO LINGERING SURFACE RIDGE AND STABLE
MARITIME AIR MASS OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE STATE. HOWEVER,
GREATER INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK WARM FRONT MOVING
INTO NORTHERN AND WESTERN PA WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SCATTERED,
PULSE-TYPE CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS. WARMER TEMPS ALOFT SHOULD CAP CONVECTION OVER THE
LAUREL HIGHLANDS.
THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES ON MEMORIAL DAY SHOULD BE ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS, WHERE AFTERNOON READINGS AROUND 80F ARE
LIKELY. MORE CLOUD COVER AND FLOW OFF OF THE ATLANTIC SHOULD
TEMPER THE WARM UP FURTHER EAST WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ANY CONVECTION SHOULD FADE INTO MONDAY NIGHT, WITH PARTLY
CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. SOME
PATCHY VALLEY FOG IS POSSIBLE INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING GIVEN
NEARLY CALM WINDS AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 60S.
A STRETCH OF SUMMER-LIKE WEATHER IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK COURTESY
OF ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY RAIN-
FREE CONDITIONS. FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURE DEPARTURES FROM
NORMAL SHOULD RUN +5 TO +15 DEGREES, BUT DAILY MAXES ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO REACH RECORD TERRITORY. THE RUN OF MAINLY DRY
WEATHER INTO MONTH-END WILL INCREASE THE ODDS FOR A POTENTIAL
TOP-10 DRIEST MAY AT SITES SUCH AS KMDT, KAOO, KIPT, AND STCP1.
THE BEST CHANCE OF ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION THROUGH MIDWEEK
WILL BE OVER THE ELEVATED HEAT SOURCE OF THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
MED RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH LATE
NEXT WEEK, ALL OF WHICH TRACK THE REMNANTS OF WEAK SURFACE LOW
OFF OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST NORTHWARD INTO PA ALONG WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF RETREATING UPPER RIDGE. BASED ON AGREEMENT AMONG
LATEST GEFS AND OPERATIONAL RUNS, HAVE INCREASED POPS THURSDAY.
HAVE ALSO LOWERED TEMPERATURES THURSDAY DUE TO EXPECTED CLOUD
COVER AND EASTERLY FLOW.
THE LATEST ECENS AND NAEFS BOTH TRACK A POTENT COLD FRONT
SOUTHEAST ACROSS PA FRIDAY PM, LIKELY ACCOMPANIED BY A ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES
WITH RESPECT TO HOW FAST THE FRONT CLEARS SOUTHEAST PA EARLY
SATURDAY. HOWEVER, THE BULK OF GUIDANCE SUPPORTS A RETURN TO FAIR
AND SEASONABLE WEATHER NEXT WEEKEND, AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE GRT LKS.
AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
WIDESPREAD STRATUS PERSISTS OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING AND WILL
CONTINUE TO LOWER OVERNIGHT, WITH MVFR CIGS LOWERING TO IFR FOR
MOST SITES. WINDS WILL BE S-SE AT 5-10 KT, WITH SOME GUSTS 15-20
KT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN BEFORE 06Z.
MORNING STRATUS WILL GIVE WAY TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON CU ACROSS
THE AREA ON MON. A FEW SHRA/TSRA WILL LIKELY DEVELOP NEAR LAKE
ERIE MON AFTERNOON, WITH SCATTERED TSRA POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN
ALLEGHENIES MAINLY AFTER 18Z.
OUTLOOK...
TUE...LOW CIGS POSSIBLE IN AM; MAINLY VFR.
WED...ISOLATED TSRA
THU...TSRA LIKELY AFTEROON
FRI...RA/TSRA LIKELY WITH COLD FRONT
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL/COLBERT
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD
AVIATION...COLBERT
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