174
FXUS61 KCTP 101845
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
245 PM EDT FRI JUL 10 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
*INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN THE RETURN OF HOT AND HUMID PATTERN
FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
KEY MESSAGES
1) ELEVATED FLASH FLOOD RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING
2) HOT AND HUMID PATTERN SET TO RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: ELEVATED FLASH FLOOD RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED IN EARNEST IN RESPONSE
TO SURFACE HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
IS CONTRIBUTING TO FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL THAT SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH 00Z/8P THIS EVENING.
THE STORMS ARE LOCATED IN SEVERAL CLUSTERS FROM NORTHWESTERN
OHIO THROUGH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. THE STORMS ARE LOCATED SOUTH
OF A FRONT OVER LAKE ERIE AND ARE IN AN AIRMASS CHARACTERIZED BY
1.5-1.8 INCH PW VALUES AND ~2000 J/KG MLCAPE, SUPPORTING ROBUST
UPDRAFTS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. MRMS ESTIMATED OF 1-1.5
INCH/HR HAVE ALREADY BEEN NOTED, WHICH ISN'T SURPRISING GIVEN
MODEST STEERING FLOW ALOFT (SUPPORTING 10-20 KT STORM MOVEMENT).
FLASH FLOODING IS LIKELY ON AT LEAST AN ISOLATED BASIS IN THE
SHORT TERM - ESPECIALLY IN SPOTS OF HIGHLY SENSITIVE TO
COMPROMISED SOILS IN COMPLEX TERRAIN WITH FFG THRESHOLDS BELOW
1 INCH/HR.
THE ONGOING FLASH FLOOD RISK FOCUSED PRIMARILY OVER WEST-CENTRAL
PA WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND SLIGHTLY EASTWARD IN RESPONSE TO
PEAK HEATING/DESTABILIZATION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE RISK
WILL PRIMARILY BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND MAY LESSEN GRADUALLY WITH
LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING AFTER SUNSET. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING ARE EXPECTED, WITH SEVERAL AREAS OF
STORM CELL MERGERS SUPPORTING LOCAL PEAKS OF 2 INCH/HR RAIN
RATES AND SPOTS OF 3 INCH RAINFALL TOTALS.
WHILE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH STORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL, WE STILL CAN'T
RULE OUT AN OCCASIONAL STRONG TO LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUST.
FOCUS FOR LOCALLY HEAVY T-STORMS SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHERN HALF TO
1/3 OF CENTRAL PA ON SATURDAY. MEANWHILE, MUCH DRIER/LESS HUMID
AIR WILL FILTER INTO NORTHERN PA AND BE A HARBINGER FOR A MORE
PLEASANT END TO THE WEEKEND/START TO NEXT WEEK.
---------------------------------------------------------------
KEY MESSAGE 2: HOT AND HUMID PATTERN SET TO RETURN FOR THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEK WITH A STRONG RIDGE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE MIDDLE
OF THE COUNTRY. INCREASING HEAT/HUMIDITY IS FORECAST ACROSS
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA ALTHOUGH THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH RESPECT TO HOW WARM TEMPERATURES AND/OR HUMIDITY GET ACROSS
THE REGION. CURRENT FORECAST FAVORS THE HOTTEST TEMPS RETURNING
TUE TO THU WITH HIGHS 85-95F AND MAX HEAT INDEX 90-100F. RAIN
CHANCES INCREASE INTO THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
PREVAILING VFR WILL BE INTERRUPTED BY BOUTS OF HEAVY T-STORM
RAIN AND ASSOCIATED MVFR TO IFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS THROUGH
23-24Z TIMEFRAME. WE CONTINUE TO UTILIZE THE PROB30 TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE RELATIVELY BRIEF DROPS IN FLIGHT CATEGORY.
PARTIAL CLEARING, LIGHT WINDS, AND RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
FROM PREVIOUS RAINS WILL FAVOR AREAS OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS
DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS
ARE PROBABLE AT MOST TAF SITES ROUGHLY FROM 05-13Z SATURDAY.
ANOTHER ROUND OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN T-STORMS ARE LIKELY OVER THE
SOUTHERN HALF TO 1/3 OF THE AIRSPACE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. FOG IS
LIKELY TO DEVELOP AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING.
OUTLOOK...
SUN-WED...MAINLY VFR WITH AREAS OF LATE NIGHT/AM FOG.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ010-011-
017>019-024>026-033-034.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...STEINBUGL
KEY MESSAGES...STEINBUGL
DISCUSSION...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...STEINBUGL
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