403
FXUS61 KCTP 202016
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
316 PM EST SUN JAN 20 2019
SYNOPSIS
THE COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER TO DATE WILL BE OVER THE REGION
THROUGH TUESDAY, BEFORE A MODERATING TREND DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE
NEXT APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM. ANOTHER SHOT OF BITTER COLD
WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BY THE END OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/
*DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING
THE STORM SYSTEM AS OF EARLY AFTERNOON IS OVER THE SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND COASTAL WATERS AND WILL CONTINUE NE UP INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. THE FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO COLD WEATHER IMPACTS
AS ARCTIC AIR BLASTS INTO THE REGION ON A BLUSTERY NORTHWEST
WIND. TEMPERATURES STARTED FALLING EARLY AND WILL CONTINUE INTO
THE OVERNIGHT BOTTOMING OUT BETWEEN PLUS OR MINUS 5 DEGREES BY
MORNING.
GUSTY WINDS COMBINED WITH THE FRIGID TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT
IN BITTER COLD TO DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS IN THE 15 TO 25 DEG
BELOW ZERO RANGE. AS A RESULT WE HAVE WIND CHILL HEADLINES FOR
THE ENTIRE CWA. AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHER TIER.
THE SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR CHARGING ACROSS THE GR LAKES IS QUITE DRY
AND INVERSION HEIGHTS ARE PRETTY LOW. BETWEEN THE DRY AIR AND
SHORT OVER-LAKE TRAJECTORIES, WE EXPECT LITTLE MORE THAN
SCATTERED MAINLY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WITH LITTLE OR NO
ACCUMULATIONS IN THE NORMAL SNOWBELT AND FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS.
SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/
MONDAY WILL BE A BRIGHT BUT FRIGID DAY OVER CENTRAL PA. HIGHS
WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS UP NORTH TO MID TEENS ALONG
THE MD BORDER. THESE WILL BE ABOUT 25 DEG COLDER THAN NORMAL IN
MOST AREAS.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND OFF THE BOTTOM ON TUESDAY (BUT STILL
ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE) AND TREND MILDER THROUGH
MIDWEEK. CLEARING SKIES AND SNOW COVER UNDER STRONG ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE MAY PRODUCE THE COLDEST MINIMUM TEMPS TUESDAY MORNING.
FOCUS FOR PRECIP THROUGH MIDWEEK WILL BE A TRAILING COLD FRONT
FROM INITIAL GREAT LAKES LOW PRESSURE, AND THEN A STRENGTHENING
WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FRONT AND
TRACKING NORTHWARD UP THE MID ATLANTIC/NEW ENGLAND COAST. THERE
IS STILL UNCERTAINTY IN STRENGTH/TIMING/TRACK OF THE FRONTAL WAVE
BUT CURRENTLY THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST SOME WINTRY
WEATHER TO THE NORTH/WEST OF THE LOW TRACK.
ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR SHOULD ARRIVE BY THE END OF THE WEEK
WITH SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. THE GFS IS FASTER VS. ECMWF
WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM INTO THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THE NW FLOW AND LINGERING MVFR CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR OVER
CENTRAL AND EASTERN TERMINALS, WHILE THE NORMAL HIGHER ELEVATION
AIRPORTS FROM THE LAURELS INTO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WILL
LIKELY LINGER WITH REDUCED CONDITIONS AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. BFD IS LIKELY TO REMAIN SUB VFR INTO
MONDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK...
MON...MVFR CIGS NW EARLY BECOMING VFR BY MID MORNING. WIDESPREAD
VFR ELSEWHERE.
TUE...MAINLY VFR.
WED...RESTRICTIONS LIKELY WITH RAIN OR SHOWERS.
THU...MVFR/VFR WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.
FRI...MVFR WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND A GUSTY NW WIND.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR PAZ004>006-
010>012-037-041-042.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST MONDAY
FOR PAZ017>019-024>028-033>036-045-046-049>053-056>059-063>066.
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...GARTNER/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LA CORTE
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