499
FXUS61 KCTP 111933
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
233 PM EST THU DEC 11 2025
SYNOPSIS
*SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS GRADUALLY TAPER OFF TONIGHT
*ACCUMULATING SNOW POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER
ARCTIC BLAST
*SIGNS OF A WARMER PATTERN CHANGE ON THE HORIZON BY THE END OF
NEXT WEEK
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
COLD ADVECTION WITHIN CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN SEVERAL
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS/BANDS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW (LES) AND OROGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED SNOW
SHOWERS/BANDS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND SLOWLY TAPER OFF LATE
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
WE ADDED TIOGA COUNTY TO THE WINTER WX ADVISORY AND ISSUED SPS
FOR N. LYCOMING AND SULLIVAN TO HIGHLIGHT A WELL DEFINED,
ELONGATED LES BAND EXTENDING FROM LAKE ERIE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TIER OF CPA INTO THE POCONOS. RWIS/AWOS STATIONS NEAR AND ALONG
ROUTE 6/15 CONFIRMED SHARP DROPS IN VIS ALONG WITH QUICK BURSTS
OF HEAVY SNOW. NO CHANGES TO LES WARNING AND WINTER WX ADVY
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE NW ALLEGHENIES AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS.
GUSTY WINDS PEAKING IN THE 35-45 MPH RANGE AND PROMOTING AREAS
OF BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW WILL ALSO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TONIGHT AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT STARTS TO LOOSEN UP.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
LES OVER NW PA SHOULD FADE/FLAKE OUT BY MIDDAY FRIDAY WITH
INCREASING SUBSIDENCE BRING LOWERING INVERSION HEIGHTS AND
BACKING FLOW WITH HEIGHT. FRIDAY LOOKS LIKE A DECENT DAY OVERALL
THANKS TO BRIEFLY VISITING HIGH PRESSURE WITH VARIABLE CLOUDS,
LIGHTER WINDS, AND MAX TEMPS +3-6F WARMER VS. THURSDAY.
A SFC LOW >1000MB TRACKING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES (MUCH
WEAKER THAN THE ONE LIFTING TO THE NORTH OF MAINE) LOOKS LIKE IT
WILL BRING A SHOT OF LIGHT WAA SNOW (<1") DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE
INTO THE NW MTNS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
TO THE SOUTH OF THE MAIN UPPER LOW CENTER NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR,
ANOTHER FAST MOVING SYSTEM WILL STREAK AROUND THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER TROUGH FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND MID
ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THE UPPER TROUGH
IS FCST TO DIG/AMPLIFY AS IT PIVOTS EASTWARD AND SHOULD DRIVE
COASTAL LOW DEVELOPMENT WHILE DRAGGING A POCKET OF -20C AIR AT
850MB INTO SOUTHWEST PA/WV BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
ODDS ARE RISING FOR A BROAD AREA OF EXPANDING/ACCUMULATING SNOW
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY ACROSS CPA. NBM PROBS FOR
>3" ARE HIGHEST OVER THE SOUTHERN LAURELS AND SOUTHEAST PORTION
OF THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY. THE ARRIVAL OF ARCTIC AIR
ENSURES SNOW CHARACTER WILL BE VERY DRY AND FLUFFY.
MAX TEMPS SUNDAY WILL DROP BY 10-20 DEGREES VS. SATURDAY WITH
MEAN DEPARTURES FROM CLIMO ON THE ORDER OF 15 TO 25 DEGREES. A
FEW LOCATIONS COULD SEE HIGHS CLOSE TO THE DAILY RECORD LOW MAX.
GUSTY WINDS AND VERY COLD TEMPS WILL SEND MIN WIND CHILLS NEAR
AND BELOW ZERO SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/AM MONDAY.
LAKE EFFECT/UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ONE MORE SHORTWAVE TROUGH COULD BRUSH THE AREA WITH LIGHT SNOW
EARLY NEXT WEEK; OTHERWISE THERE IS GROWING CONFIDENCE IN A MID
TO LATE DECEMBER THAW AS THE PATTERN TRANSITIONS TO A MILDER SW
FLOW ALOFT WITH MEAN TROUGHING SHIFTED WESTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL
U.S. DRY WX IS FAVORED TUE-THU WITH HIGHS CLIMBING TOWARD THE
40-50F RANGE LATE IN THE WEEK - POSSIBLY IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT
WIDESPREAD PRECIP EVENT.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
LAKE EFFECT/UPSLOPE SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY, BRINGING
PERIODS OF SNOW TO ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT, MOST LIKELY, MDT AND
LNS. WHILE THE SNOW BANDS ARE REACHING ALL THE WAY TO UNV AND
AOO THIS MORNING, LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD TAKE ON MORE OF A
WESTERLY COMPONENT THIS AFTERNOON, HELPING TO DIRECT THE SNOW
BANDS LARGELY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80. THAT BEING SAID, A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE AT JST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. TAF SITES THAT SEE SNOW MOVE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD WILL
LIKELY SEE BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR VISIBILITY. CEILINGS WILL
LARGELY BE VFR OUTSIDE OF BFD AND JST, WHERE MVFR CEILINGS
SHOULD PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.
GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH NORTHWEST WINDS SUSTAINED
BETWEEN 15 AND 25 KNOTS ALONG WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 KNOTS. LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE AT BFD AND POTENTIALLY IPT THROUGH
THE EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
OUTLOOK...
FRI-MON...ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE WITH
MULTIPLE CLIPPER SYSTEMS.
TUE...IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED. GENERALLY VFR.
CLIMATE
ASTRONOMICAL WINTER (SOLSTICE) BEGINS AT 10:03 A.M. ON SUNDAY,
DECEMBER 21ST.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR PAZ004-005.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR PAZ006-010-
011-017-037.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ024-
033.
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...GARTNER/BAUCO
CLIMATE...STEINBUGL
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