799  
FXUS61 KCTP 241908  
AFDCTP  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA  
308 PM EDT SUN MAR 24 2019  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
AN UPPER LOW OVER THE MISS VALLEY WILL WEAKEN AS IT PUSHES EAST  
AND MERGES WITH A SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS  
PENNSYLVANIA MONDAY. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED DRY  
AIR MASS WILL SETTLE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA DURING MIDWEEK. A  
COLD FRONT IS THEN LIKELY TO PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION  
NEXT WEEKEND.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
 
 
CLOUDY SKIES CONTINUE TODAY AS WARM ADVECTION OVERSPREADS THE  
REGION AHEAD OF WEAKENING UPPER LOW OVER THE MISS VALLEY.  
SURFACE HIGH WILL DRIFT SOUTH OF PA, ALLOWING A RETURN WSW FLOW  
OF MILDER, HIGHER- PWAT AIR INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER, LARGE  
SCALE FORCING WITH APPROACHING SYSTEM REMAINS WEST OF THE STATE.  
MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND PRECIPITATION LOWER.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/
 
 
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS PROGGED  
TO PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. MOISTURE RETURN  
AHEAD OF FRONT IS NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE OVERALL, BUT BEST ACROSS  
SOUTHWEST PA. HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND OF LOWERING PRECIPITATION.  
THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE ACROSS THE LAURELS, WHERE OROGRAPHIC  
ENHANCEMENT IS EXPECTED. WHILE THE AREA IS DRIER, THERE IS STILL  
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH THOUGH ANY  
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINIMAL AT BEST.  
 
REMNANTS OF A MISSISSIPPI VALLEY UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED  
SURFACE LOW ARE PROGGED TO TRACK SOUTH OF PA ON MONDAY. LATEST  
GUIDANCE INDICATES THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE STATE COULD BE  
CLIPPED BY A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON OR EARLY  
EVENING. SURFACE RIDGING AND MUCH DRIER AIR MASS OVER UPSTATE NY  
SHOULD RESULT IN MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS NORTHERN PA MONDAY,  
WHILE OVERCAST CONDITIONS LOOK LIKELY IN THE SOUTH.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
 
 
MED RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A HIGH CONFIDENCE OF  
FAIR WEATHER DURING MIDWEEK, AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS  
SOUTHEAST OVER THE AREA. BOTH THE 00Z ECENS AND NAEFS SHOW AN  
ANOMALOUS UPPER RIDGE BUILDING ALONG THE EAST COAST LATE IN THE  
WEEK, WITH A SLOW-MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED TO OUR  
NORTHWEST ACROSS THE GRT LKS. HAVE INTRODUCED THE CHANCE OF  
SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHWEST PA LATE IN THE WEEK TO ACCOUNT FOR  
MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH REGARD TO HOW CLOSE THIS QUASI-STATIONARY  
FRONT GETS TO US. HOWEVER, ALL GUIDANCE SEEMS TO SUGGEST THE  
BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS COMES NEXT WEEKEND, WHEN EAST COAST RIDGE  
BREAKS DOWN AND COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE STATE. ABOVE  
NORMAL TEMPERATURES APPEAR VERY LIKELY FRI-SAT IN THE DEEP  
SOUTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN EAST COAST RIDGE AND APPROACHING FRONT.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE FIRST  
HALF OF THE EVENING. THE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL  
SPREAD LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA EARLY  
MONDAY. ACROSS THE NORTH, A RAIN/SNOW MIX IS ANTICIPATED, WITH  
MAINLY RAIN IN THE SOUTH.  
 
MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AT BFD AND JST FOR A FEW HOURS TOMORROW  
MORNING.  
 
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL PRESS SOUTHWARD DURING MONDAY,BRINGING  
PRECIPITATION TO THE SOUTH BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.  
   
OUTLOOK
 
 
MON...AM RAIN/SNOW. RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE, MAINLY NORTHERN AND  
WESTERN MOUNTAINS.  
 
TUE-WED...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.  
 
THU...VFR, BUT WITH SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE NORTHWEST.  
 

 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
 
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BELOW 30% ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON  
AND EARLY EVENING ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL PA. WINDS WILL BE  
LIGHTER THAN ON SATURDAY, THOUGH SOME GUSTS FROM 15 TO 20MPH ARE  
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. FINE FUEL MOISTURE (PER COORDINATION  
WITH FIRE WX PARTNERS) IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 10% THROUGH  
THE WEEKEND, AND THEREFORE NO FIRE WX HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED AT  
THIS TIME.  
 

 
   
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD  
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU  
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU  
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD  
AVIATION...CERU/GARTNER  
FIRE WEATHER...  
 
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