041
FXUS61 KCTP 151753
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
153 PM EDT TUE SEP 15 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* EXPANDED FOG/MID MORNING STRATUS CLOUD COVER IN THE VALLEYS OF
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PA
KEY MESSAGES
1) ONE MORE DAY OF COMFORTABLY COOL/PLEASANT AND RAIN-FREE
CONDITIONS TODAY
2) WARM/HUMID CONDITIONS RETURN MID TO LATE WEEK WITH BEST ODDS
FOR RAIN THURSDAY
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: ONE MORE DAY OF COMFORTABLY COOL/PLEASANT AND
RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS TODAY
CLEAR SKIES, LIGHT/VARIABLE WIND AND VERY COOL TEMPS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S WILL LEAD A FAIRLY EXTENSIVE VALLEY FOG
AS A RESULT OF AIR/WATER DELTA TS EASILY EXCEEDING 20 DEG F.
THE FOG WILL DISSIPATE BETWEEN 12-1330Z AS TEMPS BUMP UP A FEW
DEG F AND A LIGHT SE TO SOUTHERLY WIND DEVELOPS.
OTHERWISE, A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHED FROM THE UPPER
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY SOUTH INTO PENNSYLVANIA THIS
MORNING. THIS WEATHER FEATURE WILL BRING THE REGION ANOTHER
PLEASANT LATE SUMMER DAY WITH A MIX OF SUNSHINE AND MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS, ALONG WITH A LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERLY BREEZE AND
COMFORTABLY LOW HUMIDITY.
A WIDE 25-35 DEGREE DIURNAL RANGE IS FCST FOR TODAY WITH
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S NORTH TO MID
AND UPPER 70S IN THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS.
KEY MESSAGE 2: WARM/HUMID CONDITIONS RETURN MID TO LATE WEEK
WITH BEST ODDS FOR RAIN THURSDAY
FAIR AND COOL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR TONIGHT, BEFORE HUMIDITY
AND TEMPERATURES STEADILY CLIMB WEDNESDAY AND PEAK ON THURSDAY.
THERE WILL BE A HIGH PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS AND MAINLY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS THURSDAY
ACROSS CENTRAL PA AND THE SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY, AS A WEAK FRONT
SINKS SOUTHWARD FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.
IF THE FRONT CAN PUSH SOUTH OF THE MD LINE, MOST OF FRIDAY
COULD BE DRY. PRECIP ODDS THEN STEADILY INCREASE FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEKEND, AHEAD OF NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM PROGRESSION
FROM THE GREAT LAKES. LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD
SUPPORT A MID TO LATE WEEK WARMING TREND WITH THE LARGEST HI/LO
DEPARTURE FROM CLIMO WED-THU.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
CLEAR SKIES WITH SOME HIGH CIRRUS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST
OF THE AFTERNOON. A FEW GUSTS IN THE 15-20KT RANGE ARE POSSIBLE
AT BFD AND JST BUT WILL LIKELY GROW MORE INFREQUENT THROUGH THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON. CALM CONDITIONS THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AT MOST TERMINALS, ALTHOUGH BFD MAY SEE
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING.
REFLECTED LATEST TIMING THINKING IN ITS TAF. SOME MODELS SHOW
SHOWERS LINGERING LATER INTO THE MORNING THERE SO UPDATES ON
TIMING MAY BE NEEDED.
MODEL SIGNAL IS ONCE AGAIN RELATIVELY MUTE ON EARLY MORNING
RESTRICTIONS, HOWEVER THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME EARLY MORNING LOW
CLOUD FORMATION IS POSSIBLE AT IPT AKIN TO THIS MORNING.
CONFIDENCE ISN'T HIGH ENOUGH (<30%) TO INCLUDE IT IN TAFS BUT
MORE NEAR TERM GUIDANCE MAY PICK UP ON A CLOUDIER SIGNAL. SHOULD
CONDITIONS GET MOIST ENOUGH, SOME MIST MAY ALSO IMPACT AOO AND
UNV IN THE 10-13Z RANGE. LIKEWISE, CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE AT
THIS TIME IS <30%, WILL REASSESS AT FURTHER TAF PACKAGES.
OUTLOOK...
WED...AM FOG POSSIBLE, OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR.
THU-SUN...INCREASING SHRA/TSRA CHANCES, MAINLY ON THU,
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...LAMBERT/COLBERT
KEY MESSAGES...LAMBERT/COLBERT
DISCUSSION...LAMBERT/COLBERT
AVIATION...LAMBRECH
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