755
FXUS61 KCTP 260823
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
423 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* LEANING WARMER WITH MAX TEMPERATURE FORECAST TODAY
* SPC SEVERE T-STORM AND WPC EXCESSIVE RAIN OUTLOOKS EXPANDED
KEY MESSAGES
1) NOTICEABLE WARMUP TODAY WILL PRECEDE RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY A CHILLY/RAW COOL DOWN FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK INTO THE LAST WEEKEND OF MARCH
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: NOTICEABLE WARMUP TODAY WILL PRECEDE RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY A CHILLY/RAW COOL DOWN
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE LAST WEEKEND OF MARCH
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY AND RELATIVELY MILD START TODAY AS
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW RAMPS UP AHEAD OF STRONG COLD FRONT
MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. WE STILL EXPECT
RAIN FREE CONDITIONS IN MOST PLACES TO LAST INTO THE AFTERNOON
(THROUGH 18Z) ALTHOUGH CAN'T RULE OUT A PASSING SHOWER IN THE
INCREASINGLY MOIST WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN.
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS COMBINED WITH THE SOUTHWEST BREEZE WILL
SUPPORT A VERY WARM DAY RELATIVE TO LATE MARCH CLIMO - WITH
FCST MAX TEMPS IN THE 65-75F RANGE OR +15-25 DEGREES ABOVE THE
HISTORICAL AVERAGE/WITHIN 5 DEGREES OR SO OF DAILY RECORD HIGHS
(SEE CLIMATE SECTION).
THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE THE PRIMARY
FORCING FOR A BAND OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS TO TRACK FROM NW TO
SE ACROSS CENTRAL PA THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT. SPC HAS
EXTENDED THE MRGL AND SLGT RISK CONVECTIVE OUTLOOKS FARTHER
EASTWARD INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL PA, HOWEVER CALIBRATED SEVERE
STORM PROBS CONTINUE TO FOCUS THE GREATEST HAIL/WIND/TOR RISK IN
THE OHIO VALLEY WHERE CAPE AND SHEAR PROFILES ARE MORE INSYNC.
INFLUX OF 1-1.5" PWATS BRINGS THE PROSPECT OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL MORE INTO PLAY AND FCST QPF AMOUNTS HAVE INCREASED A
BIT PARTICULARLY OVER SOUTHWEST PA. IT'S NOT CLEAR HOW MUCH FAST
MOVEMENT AND AVERAGE SOIL MOISTURE CAN BE OFFSET BY TRAINING
STORMS AND OROGRAPHICS, BUT LIKE THE SEVERE T-STORM RISK, THE
PROBABILITY OF RUNOFF ISSUES HAS INCREASED ON THE MARGIN AND
WPC WILL BE MONITORING FOR A TARGETED UPGRADE IN THE ERO. THE
HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS ARE 1.50-2.00 INCHES IN THE LAUREL
HIGHLANDS.
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, A RAW NORTHERLY WIND WILL DELIVER A
24HR MAXT CHANGE OF -20 TO -30 DEGREES FOR FRIDAY. THE EARLY
SPRING TEMPERATURE ROLLER COASTER REACHES A NADIR FRIDAY NIGHT
WITH LOWS SATURDAY MORNING BOTTOMING IN THE TEENS/20S. THIS WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY A RATHER CHILLY START THE LAST WEEKEND OF MARCH
WITH MAX TEMPS 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE COOL DOWN
WILL NOT LAST LONG WITH MODERATING TEMPS/WARMING TREND EXPECTED
SUNDAY THROUGH THE START OF APRIL.
AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL BENEATH A SHIELD OF MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS, BASED AOA 8000 FT AGL, THAT WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM SE
ACROSS PA TODAY.
THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE NEAR-TERM WILL BE LLWS CONCERNS
WITH THE AXIS OF A 40-45KT SWRLY 850MB LLJ SHIFTING SLOWLY EAST
ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE EARLY TO MID MORNING HOURS TODAY.
THE POTENTIAL FOR SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN AT BFD AFTER
12Z. CONDITIONS THERE WILL STEADILY DETERIORATE TO IFR AFTER
17Z AND STAY MAINLY IFR TO LIFR INTO THURS NIGHT.
A COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY APPROACH THE AREA AND IS EXPECTED
TO BE STATIONED EAST-TO-WEST JUST NORTH OF THE PA-NY BORDER
AROUND FRIDAY. SHOWERS AND SCATTERED STORMS WILL BE FOCUSED
ALONG THE FRONT; HOWEVER, RECENT HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE DOES
INDICATE SOME STORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND HAVE OUTLINED THESE
IN PROB30S AT BFD GIVEN SLIGHTLY HIGHER CONFIDENCE.
FURTHER SOUTH, SHRA WILL BE INTRODUCED IN THE TAFS PRIOR TO 00Z
FRIDAY AT IPT/JST PRIOR WHILE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THIS
PRECIP WILL BEGIN AT UNV/AOO IN THE 00Z-01Z FRIDAY TIMEFRAME.
FURTHER SE (MDT/LNS) SHOWERS WILL REACH THE REGION AROUND 02-03Z
FRIDAY.
OUTLOOK...
FRI...-SHRA BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
TSRA. RESTRICTIONS LIKELY.
SAT-SUN...VFR.
MON...SCT -SHRA WITH RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 26TH:
HARRISBURG 80 IN 1921
WILLIAMSPORT 78 IN 1939
ALTOONA 79 IN 1998
BRADFORD 73 IN 2007
STATE COLLEGE 76 IN 1949
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...STEINBUGL
KEY MESSAGES...STEINBUGL
DISCUSSION...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LAMBERT
CLIMATE...STEINBUGL
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