114
FXUS61 KCTP 020520
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
120 AM EDT WED JUL 2 2025
SYNOPSIS
* SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, SOME WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS,
WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT
* DRIER/LESS HUMID/MORE COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY FOR
MID TO LATE WEEK, WITH A HIGH CONFIDENCE OF DRY WEATHER AND
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ON INDEPENDENCE DAY
* TRENDING WARMER AND MORE HUMID THIS WEEKEND; UNSETTLED PATTERN
RETURNS BY SUNDAY
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
11 PM UPDATE... ISOLATED-WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE SURFACE COLD FRONT ARE LOSING STEAM AS
THEY PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH AND ENCOUNTER AN AIR
MASS CHEWED UP/STABILIZED BY EARLIER CONVECTION. IN THE
MEANTIME, A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES ARE TRAVERSING THE LOWER
SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY. ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO
DWINDLE OVERNIGHT, AS A SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR MASS AND SUBSIDENCE
ALOFT SLOWLY OVERTAKE THE REGION.
THE EARLIER FLOOD WATCH FOR AREAS NEAR AND SOUTH OF I-80 HAS
BEEN DISCONTINUED.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... 615 PM UPDATE... THE MOST ROBUST
CONVECTION IS NOW LARGELY ALONG AND EAST/SOUTHEAST OF A PRE-
FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN, WHERE DEEPER
INSTABILITY AND HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES EXIST. ALTHOUGH
HIT AND MISS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD STILL IMPACT
CENTRAL PA THIS EVENING, AHEAD OF THE MAIN SURFACE COLD FRONT
THAT WILL BE SLOWLY COMING THROUGH THE REGION, SEVERE STORMS
WOULD SEEM EXTREMELY UNLIKELY, THUS THE CANCELLATION OF THE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.
GIVEN ONGOING RUNOFF ISSUES AND EXTREMELY WET ANTECEDENT
CONDITIONS, PARTICULARLY NEAR AND SOUTH OF I-78/US-22 IN THE
SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY, THE FLOOD WATCH WILL STAY IN TACT AT THIS
TIME.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
SHOWER ACTIVITY SLOWLY SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT WITH ANY
POST FRONTAL CLEARING EXPECTED TO RESULT IN FOG FORMATION INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE LATEST HREF ALSO SUGGESTS SOME LOW CLOUDS
AND STRATUS MAY LINGER INTO THE EARLY MORNING WEDNESDAY.
ON BALANCE, THIS PERIOD WILL FEATURE A DRYING TREND WITH LITTLE
TO NO RAINFALL AND MORE COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY. BEST ODDS FOR A
COUPLE OF PM SHOWERS/T-STORM WILL BE THURSDAY AFTERNOON
ASSOCIATED WITH A SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM
EASTERN CANADA AND THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES.
WE CONTINUE TO HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE/CONVICTION IN A REALLY NICE
INDEPENDENCE DAY WITH A NEAR ZERO CHANCE FOR RAIN AND GREAT
VIEWING FOR FIREWORKS. MIN TEMPS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE QUITE
COMFORTABLE IN THE LOW 50S TO LOW 60S.
HUMIDITY LEVELS START TO CREEP UPWARD TO START THE FIRST
WEEKEND OF JULY; HOWEVER IT WILL REMAIN DRY WITH UNSETTLED
WEATHER EXPECTED TO RETURN SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES BY SUNDAY MORNING WILL
BRING ABOUT INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /05Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 1 AM, STARTING TO SEE SOME FOG AT BFD AND A FEW OTHER
SITES.
ASIDE FROM THE FOG, MAIN ISSUE OVERNIGT INTO THE FIRST PART
OF WEDNESDAY WILL BE SHOWERS AT MDT AND LNS.
SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TAFS FOR THE 06Z SET.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
GIVEN WIDESPREAD RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, PLUS
ONLY SLOW INFUSION OF DRIER AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE OVERNIGHT, PATCHES OF LOWER CLOUDS AND FOG SEEM
LIKELY. WE HAVE THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN THAT SCENARIO OVER
THE ALLEGHENIES (KBFD AND KJST), WHERE SOME IFR IS EXPECTED.
ON WEDNESDAY, A BETTER PUSH OF DRY AIR SHOULD RESULT IN VFR
CONDITIONS AREA-WIDE (VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE).
OUTLOOK...
THU...PRIMARILY VFR; STRAY PM SHOWER/T-STORM POSSIBLE.
FRI-SUN...AM FOG POSSIBLE; OTHERWISE VFR.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...JUREWICZ/STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...BANGHOFF/NPB
AVIATION...JUREWICZ/MARTIN/BOWEN
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page