565
FXUS61 KCTP 091108
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
708 AM EDT THU APR 9 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* INCREASED ODDS FOR RAIN ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST ALLEGHENIES
THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT
KEY MESSAGES
1) FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS AND MARGINAL UPTICK IN WILDFIRE
SPREAD RISK TODAY AND FRIDAY
2) ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LITTLE TO NO RAINFALL FORECAST
INTO NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS AND MARGINAL UPTICK IN
WILDFIRE SPREAD RISK TODAY INTO FRIDAY
NOT AS COLD AS YESTERDAY MORNING, BUT SEVERAL LOCATIONS ACROSS
THE SOUTH CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION WILL START THE DAY
CHILLY TO FROSTY WITH DAYBREAK TEMPS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S.
FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE RECENTLY ACTIVATED
GROWING SEASON ZONES UNTIL 9AM.
A MARGINAL UPTICK IN WILDFIRE SPREAD RISK IS EXPECTED TODAY AND
FRIDAY AS FINE FUEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO CURE/TREND LOWER
TOWARD 10%. WE PLAN TO ISSUE A STATEMENT (SPS) TO HIGHLIGHT THE
ELEVATED WILDFIRE SPREAD RISK THAT CLOSELY MATCHES THE LATEST PA
DCNR FIRE DANGER MAP (FOR CONTEXT: FIRE DANGER OF MODERATE TO
HIGH IS PRETTY TYPICAL FOR CENTRAL PA IN APRIL).
KEY MESSAGE 2: ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LITTLE TO NO
RAINFALL FORECAST INTO NEXT WEEK
AN INCREASINGLY MILDER SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL TRANSPORT
WARMER AIR BACK INTO CPA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPS
BRIEFLY COOL DOWN OVER THE WEEKEND BEFORE SURGING +20 DEGREES
ABOVE THE HISTORICAL AVERAGE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
A PAIR OF WEAK COLD FRONTS BRING LIMITED RAINFALL THE NW PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. TOTAL
QPF RANGE IS 0.10-0.50 INCHES NEAR AND TO THE NORTH/WEST OF
I99/US220. LITTLE TO NO RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF CPA PROVIDING NO RELIEF OR IMPROVEMENT IN
THE ABNORMALLY DRY (D0) TO MODERATE/SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS
(D1-D2 INTENSITY).
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR PREVAILS ACROSS CENTRAL PA AS OF 12Z, WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE
(>90%) FOR VFR WITH MAINLY MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO CONTINUE AT
MOST TERMINALS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY, WITH AN EXCEPTION AT KLNS
WHERE A MARINE LAYER WILL BRING MVFR RESTRICTIONS THROUGH
13-14Z, AS WELL AS AT KBFD WHERE MVFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
ARE POSSIBLE IN GUSTY SHOWERS PRIMARILY BETWEEN 23Z-01Z.
OTHERWISE, SOUTHERLY FLOW PREVAILS ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF A HIGH
PRESSURE DRAPED ACROSS THE EAST COAST, WITH WINDS OF AROUND 10
KTS GUSTING TO 15-20 KTS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN RESPONSE TO A LOW PRESSURE CROSSING OVER
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHERN CANADA.
VFR IS HIGHLY LIKELY (>90%) TO RETURN AT KLNS BY 14Z AS THE
MARITIME AIR MASS IS SCOURED OUT BY DIURNAL MIXING. NIGHTTIME
MICROPHYSICS IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE LOW CLOUD DECK THAT
DEVELOPED IS ALREADY PUSHING NORTH OF KLNS AND THINNING OUT,
WHICH IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE GIVEN WE'RE PAST SUNRISE.
AT KBFD, LOW PRESSURE PASSING TO THE NORTH IS MODERATELY LIKELY
(60-70% CHANCE) TO BRING SUFFICIENT LIFT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS
AFTER 23Z, WITH A PROB30 FOR 4SM -SHRA WITH 20 KT GUSTS BETWEEN
23Z-01Z TO SIGNAL AT THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY SHOWERS. DRIVING
THIS DECISION IS AN INVERTED-V PROFILE WITH LCLS AROUND 5000 FT,
WHERE EVAPORATIVE COOLING WITHIN THE DRIER AIR BENEATH THE
CLOUD BASE COULD ENHANCE DOWNDRAFTS. THE GUST POTENTIAL IS
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AFTER 01Z AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES,
WITH REGULAR SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE
TAF PACKAGE. LIMITED INSTABILITY (HREF MEAN CAPE BETWEEN 50-100
J/KG) PRECLUDES THUNDER MENTIONS AT THIS TIME.
OUTLOOK...
FRI...GENERALLY VFR, WITH MVFR POSSIBLE PRIMARILY N/W DUE TO
-SHRA AND LOWERING CLOUD CEILINGS.
SAT...RESTRICTIONS POSS EARLY, THEN TRENDING VFR.
SUN...MAINLY DRY. MAYBE A SHOWER NEAR THE NY BORDER.
MON...CHANCE OF SHOWERS, MAINLY N/W LATER IN THE DAY.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ026>028-035-
036-049>052-056-057-059-063>066.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...STEINBUGL
KEY MESSAGES...STEINBUGL
DISCUSSION...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...TEARE
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