403  
FXUS61 KCTP 202016  
AFDCTP  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA  
316 PM EST SUN JAN 20 2019  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
THE COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER TO DATE WILL BE OVER THE REGION  
THROUGH TUESDAY, BEFORE A MODERATING TREND DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE  
NEXT APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM. ANOTHER SHOT OF BITTER COLD  
WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BY THE END OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT  
WEEKEND.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/
 
 
*DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING  
 
THE STORM SYSTEM AS OF EARLY AFTERNOON IS OVER THE SOUTHERN NEW  
ENGLAND COASTAL WATERS AND WILL CONTINUE NE UP INTO THE  
CANADIAN MARITIMES. THE FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO COLD WEATHER IMPACTS  
AS ARCTIC AIR BLASTS INTO THE REGION ON A BLUSTERY NORTHWEST  
WIND. TEMPERATURES STARTED FALLING EARLY AND WILL CONTINUE INTO  
THE OVERNIGHT BOTTOMING OUT BETWEEN PLUS OR MINUS 5 DEGREES BY  
MORNING.  
 
GUSTY WINDS COMBINED WITH THE FRIGID TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT  
IN BITTER COLD TO DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS IN THE 15 TO 25 DEG  
BELOW ZERO RANGE. AS A RESULT WE HAVE WIND CHILL HEADLINES FOR  
THE ENTIRE CWA. AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW ARE ALSO  
POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHER TIER.  
 
THE SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR CHARGING ACROSS THE GR LAKES IS QUITE DRY  
AND INVERSION HEIGHTS ARE PRETTY LOW. BETWEEN THE DRY AIR AND  
SHORT OVER-LAKE TRAJECTORIES, WE EXPECT LITTLE MORE THAN  
SCATTERED MAINLY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WITH LITTLE OR NO  
ACCUMULATIONS IN THE NORMAL SNOWBELT AND FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/
 
 
MONDAY WILL BE A BRIGHT BUT FRIGID DAY OVER CENTRAL PA. HIGHS  
WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS UP NORTH TO MID TEENS ALONG  
THE MD BORDER. THESE WILL BE ABOUT 25 DEG COLDER THAN NORMAL IN  
MOST AREAS.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
 
 
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND OFF THE BOTTOM ON TUESDAY (BUT STILL  
ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE) AND TREND MILDER THROUGH  
MIDWEEK. CLEARING SKIES AND SNOW COVER UNDER STRONG ARCTIC HIGH  
PRESSURE MAY PRODUCE THE COLDEST MINIMUM TEMPS TUESDAY MORNING.  
 
FOCUS FOR PRECIP THROUGH MIDWEEK WILL BE A TRAILING COLD FRONT  
FROM INITIAL GREAT LAKES LOW PRESSURE, AND THEN A STRENGTHENING  
WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FRONT AND  
TRACKING NORTHWARD UP THE MID ATLANTIC/NEW ENGLAND COAST. THERE  
IS STILL UNCERTAINTY IN STRENGTH/TIMING/TRACK OF THE FRONTAL WAVE  
BUT CURRENTLY THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST SOME WINTRY  
WEATHER TO THE NORTH/WEST OF THE LOW TRACK.  
 
ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR SHOULD ARRIVE BY THE END OF THE WEEK  
WITH SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. THE GFS IS FASTER VS. ECMWF  
WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM INTO THE WEEKEND.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
THE NW FLOW AND LINGERING MVFR CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR OVER  
CENTRAL AND EASTERN TERMINALS, WHILE THE NORMAL HIGHER ELEVATION  
AIRPORTS FROM THE LAURELS INTO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WILL  
LIKELY LINGER WITH REDUCED CONDITIONS AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS  
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. BFD IS LIKELY TO REMAIN SUB VFR INTO  
MONDAY MORNING.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
 
MON...MVFR CIGS NW EARLY BECOMING VFR BY MID MORNING. WIDESPREAD  
VFR ELSEWHERE.  
 
TUE...MAINLY VFR.  
 
WED...RESTRICTIONS LIKELY WITH RAIN OR SHOWERS.  
 
THU...MVFR/VFR WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.  
 
FRI...MVFR WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND A GUSTY NW WIND.  
 

 
   
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR PAZ004>006-  
010>012-037-041-042.  
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST MONDAY  
FOR PAZ017>019-024>028-033>036-045-046-049>053-056>059-063>066.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE  
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE  
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE  
LONG TERM...GARTNER/STEINBUGL  
AVIATION...LA CORTE  
 
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