270
FXUS61 KCTP 061044
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
644 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST
KEY MESSAGES
1) STRATIFORM RAIN EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL PA REST OF TONIGHT
INTO WED.
2) CHILLIER TO END THE WEEK WITH FROST/FREEZE POTENTIAL
RETURNING AS EARLY AS WED NIGHT/THUR MORNING IN THE NORTHERN
TIER, BUT MORE LIKELY THU NIGHT/FRI MORNING.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: STRATIFORM RAIN EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL PA
TONIGHT INTO WED.
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDES UP THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT TONIGHT
AND SLOWS THINGS DOWN. A GOOD FEED OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD RAIN WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE CWA LATE TONIGHT AND WED AM.
THE FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE EASTERN COUNTIES LATER IN THE AFTN
WED. BEFORE IT DOES SO, SOME CONVECTION MAY FORM AHEAD OF IT.
BUT, A CAP AROUND 10KFT WILL TRY TO SUPPRESS STORMS IN THE SE.
DO NOT EXPECT THE STORMS TO BECOME STRONG, MOVING EAST OF THE
AREA IN THE MIDDLE OF THE AFTN. SOME LINGERING SHRA ARE POSSIBLE
IN THE LATE AFTN/EVE. MAXES WILL BE 15F COLDER THAN TUE THANKS
TO ALL THE CLOUDS AND RAIN.
-------------------------------------------------
KEY MESSAGE 2: CHILLIER TO END THE WEEK WITH FROST/FREEZE
POTENTIAL RETURNING AS EARLY AS WED NIGHT IN THE NORTHERN TIER,
BUT MORE LIKELY THU NIGHT.
AFTER THE COLD FRONT PUSHES E AND S OF THE CWA ON WED, THE SKY
MAY CLEAR OUT WELL ENOUGH IN THE NRN MTNS TO ALLOW THE TEMPS TO
DROP INTO THE M30S. SOME CLOUD COVER IS STILL POSSIBLE, AND THE
WIND IS NOT TOTALLY CALM UNTIL LATER AT NIGHT/EARLY THURS AM.
THUS, THERE IS THE CHC FOR FROST THERE, BUT IT'S NOT A SLAM
DUNK. THURS NIGHT/FRI AM LOOKS BETTER FOR AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS BEHIND THE FRONT, ALBEIT WITH ITS CENTER OFF TO THE
SOUTH. MOST GUIDANCE PUTS MINS INTO THE 30S OVER THE NW HALF OR
MORE OF THE CWA FRI AM, WITH LESS CLOUD COVER THAN THE NIGHT
BEFORE. NOT MANY PIXELS OF 32F OR LOWER ON THE MINT GRID, BUT A
SMALL (20%) RISK IS THERE FOR SOMEONE TO HAVE A FREEZE ACROSS
THE NW. THE RISK FOR FROST IS MUCH MORE - AROUND 70% FOR THE
ALLEGHENY PLATEAU AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS. SO, WE'LL NEED TO
CONSIDER FROST ADVY AS WE NEAR THAT PERIOD. AT THIS POINT, WE'RE
NOT QUITE CONFIDENT ENOUGH FOR ANY FROST/FREEZE PRODUCTS. WE DO
HAVE IT MENTIONED IN THE HWO, BUT MAY NEED TO EXPAND MENTIONS.
AFTER TWO MORE WEAK SYSTEMS FRI - SUN, WE GET ANOTHER COLD NIGHT
MON NIGHT/TUES AM.
AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
WIDESPREAD STRATIFORM RAIN IS RAMPING UP ACROSS CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA THIS MORNING, WITH RADAR RETURNS ACROSS ALL
AIRFIELDS OUTSIDE OF LNS AS OF 7A/11Z THIS MORNING. LOW-LEVEL
DRY AIR ACROSS MDT/LNS COULD KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES MINIMAL
THROUGH 13Z; HOWEVER, BULK OF MODEL GUIDANCE DOES OUTLINE
SATURATION FAIRLY QUICKLY SO WENT AHEAD AND HAVE INCLUDED RAIN
CHANCES BEGINNING AT THESE AIRFIELDS AT 12Z WEDNESDAY. CURRENT
CONDITIONS NORTHWEST OF THE AREA OUTLINE LIFR CONDITIONS, WHICH
TRACKS WELL WITH 50TH PERCENTILE MEMBERSHIP OF 00Z HREF ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE; THUS, HAVE TRENDED CEILING IN THIS DIRECTION, ALSO
BLENDING IT GLAMP MODEL GUIDANCE WHICH APPEARS TO ALSO BE
RUNNING CLOSELY WITH CURRENT OBSERVATIONS.
MOST RESTRICTIONS IN THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE WILL BE CEILING-BASED
BASED ON ALL MODEL GUIDANCE THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY, WITH HIGH
(~80-90%) CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS. FORECAST
BECOMES MORE COMPLICATED WITH RESPECT TO OUR WESTERN TERMINALS
(ALL BUT MDT/LNS) WHERE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SLIGHT DISAGREEMENT
ON LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLAY AT THESE AIRFIELDS. MULTIPLE RUNS
OF GLAMP GUIDANCE INDICATES IFR RESTRICTIONS AT BFD/JST SO
HIGHER CONFIDENCE (~50-60%) IN IFR AND BELOW RESTRICTIONS AT
THESE TERMINALS THROUGH ~22Z WEDNESDAY; HOWEVER, LIFR
RESTRICTIONS WILL ALSO BE IN PLAY (~30-40% CONFIDENCE) WITH
TIMING BEING THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY. BASED ON THIS HAVE THROWN IN
A TEMPO GROUP FOR BFD WHERE TIMING/MAGNITUDE OF CEILING BELOW
300 FT AGL REMAINS MOST UNCERTAIN WHILE PREVAILING (FM) GROUPS
AT JST WHERE THIS POTENTIAL LOOKS MORE ROBUST. TRANSIENT PERIODS
OF IFR ARE ALSO PROGGED BY MODEL GUIDANCE AT AOO/UNV/MDT BUT
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOWER (~20-30%) AT THESE AIRFIELDS, THUS HAVE
LIMITED MENTIONS TO SCT/BKN CLOUD DECKS IN THE 14Z-21Z
WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME. AFTER 00Z THURSDAY, WIDESPREAD VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL BASED ON A COMBINATION OF
GLAMP/NBM MODEL GUIDANCE WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUD DECK SLIGHTLY
ERODING INTO A MORE SCT-BKN CLOUD DECK, WITH SOME CLEARING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS (AOO/UNV/IPT) POSSIBLE BASED ON
HREF/NBM MODEL GUIDANCE AFTER 08Z THURSDAY.
OUTLOOK...
THU-FRI...-SHRA POSSIBLE, BUT TRENDING DRIER.
SAT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN.
SUN...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...COLBERT
KEY MESSAGES...COLBERT
DISCUSSION...COLBERT/LAMBRECH
AVIATION...BEATY
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