961  
FXUS61 KCTP 081908  
AFDCTP  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA  
208 PM EST SAT FEB 8 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS  
 
* SNOW, SLEET, AND FREEZING RAIN EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND  
OVERNIGHT, WITH SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATION IN THE LAURELS &  
SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS NORTHEAST PA.  
* GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS SUNDAY MORNING KICK OFF A COUPLE OF DRY  
DAYS WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES  
* THE ACTIVE EARLY FEBRUARY WINTER WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES  
NEXT WEEK WITH ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SNOW OR ICE POSSIBLE NEXT  
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY  
 
 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/  
 
LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW PRESENT ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL PA THIS  
AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES LOCKED IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER  
30S - AND NOT EXPECTED TO RISE MUCH MORE BEFORE PRECIPITATION  
ARRIVES. THE NOSE OF A VERY STRONG LOW- MID LVL SOUTH TO SWRLY  
JET OVER 60 KTS WILL PUSH UP AND OVER THE STEEP SOUTHERN AND  
WESTERN EDGE OF THE SFC COLD DOME, LOCKED IN ACROSS CENTRAL AND  
EASTERN PA, SUPPORTING A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION TYPES  
(EITHER SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN IN MANY LOCATIONS WITH A DEEP  
WARM NOSE OVER TOP OF SUB-FREEZING SURFACE TEMPERATURES.  
 
LATEST GUIDANCE (AND EXTRAPOLATION FROM CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY),  
BRINGS PRECIPITATION TO THE LAURELS IN SOUTHWEST PA BEFORE 3PM  
WITH A GRADUAL SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING, LIKELY  
REACHING THE US-322 CORRIDOR AROUND 5 OR 6PM.  
 
SNOW, HEAVY AT TIMES WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE NE THIRD OF THE  
CWA THIS EVENING WITH A GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO A SEVERAL HOUR  
PERIOD OF MODERATELY HEAVY SLEET ACROSS THE REGION NEAR AND TO  
THE SW OF RT 322 FROM KFIG TO KUNV AND KMDT, WHILE THE DEPTH OF  
DEGREE OF THE ELEVATED WARM NOSE WILL SUPPORT A LENGTHY PERIOD  
OF MAINLY FZRA FURTHER SW ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS.  
 
AS THE LLJ MOVES OVERHEAD THIS EVENING, THERE COULD BE A QUICK  
THUMP OF SNOW IN NORTHEAST PA WITH MAX WET BULB TEMPS ALOFT  
ONLY 0.5-1 DEG C ABOVE FREEZING (IN THE 800-750 MB LAYER WITH  
900-875 MB TEMPS AS LOW AS -6 TO -7C) PROVIDING AN OPTIMAL  
SETUP FOR STEEP ASCENT FOR LARGE SNOWFLAKE AGGREGATES AND  
POTENTIAL 1-2 INCH PER HOUR RATES FROM NEAR OR JUST EAST OF KUNV  
NORTH AND EAST TO KIPT AND KSEG. 12Z HREF PROBABILITIES OF 1"  
PER HOURS RATES ARE MAXIMIZED BETWEEN 23Z (6PM) AND 03Z (10PM)  
ALONG AND NORTH OF I-80.  
 
FARTHER SOUTHWEST, AN ELEVATED UNSTABLE LAYER WITH MEAN 850-750  
MB LIS NEAR OR JUST BELOW 0C WILL ADVANCE AS FAR NORTH AS THE  
RT22/322 CORRIDOR DURING THE MID TO LATE EVENING HOURS WITH SOME  
THUNDER SNOW/SLEET EXPECTED ACROSS THE SW THIRD TO HALF OF THE  
CWA. THE OCCLUDED FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT  
WITH JUST SOME SHALLOW STRATO CU AND AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW OR FZDZ  
THROUGH THE PREDAWN HOURS.  
 
SNOW ACCUMS WILL RANGE FROM 1 INCH OR LESS OVER THE LAURELS TO  
BETWEEN 2-3 INCHES NEAR THE RT 322 CORRIDOR TO BETWEEN 3-4  
INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER  
TERRAIN NEAR AND TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF KIPT.  
 
ICE ACCUMS OF 0.25-0.35 INCH APPEAR HIGHLY LIKELY ACROSS THE  
LAUREL HIGHLANDS EASTWARD INTO BEDFORD COUNTY. 12Z HREF PAINTS  
MORE WIDESPREAD FREEZING RAIN ACCUMULATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF  
THE TURNPIKE THIS EVENING, BUT LIKELY A BIT OVERDONE GIVEN MODERATE  
RAIN RATES AND TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING , WHICH DOES NOT  
USUALLY EQUATE TO EFFICIENT ACCRETION OF ICE. EXPANDED THE ICE  
STORM WARNING INTO BEDFORD COUNTY WHERE AMOUNTS >0.25" ARE  
INCREASINGLY LIKELY.  
 
 
   
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/  
 
SHARP PRESSURE RISES ARE NOTED IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE SUNDAY  
MORNING, AS THE STRENGTHENING LOW PASSES OFF THE NJ COAST,  
SIGNALING THE ONSET OF GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS  
AND EPS PLUMES INDICATE GUSTS AROUND 35KTS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY  
OVER THE LAURELS AND SC MTNS, WITH SOMEWHAT LIGHTER WINDS  
ELSEWHERE. THE GUSTY WINDS COULD HAVE SOME POST-STORM IMPACT  
OVER THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS IN TERMS OF A CONTINUED THREAT OF  
DOWNED TREE LIMBS AND ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES.  
 
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE STATE SHOULD CAUSE ANY LINGERING  
OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE W MTNS TO TAPER OFF SUN PM.  
MODEL RH PROFILES INDICATE A FAIR AMOUNT OF STRATOCU SUNDAY OVER  
THE W MTNS, WHILE SUBSIDENCE THE LEE OF THE MTNS PROVIDES  
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES OVER THE SUSQ VALLEY. GEFS 2M TEMP ANOMALIES  
INDICATE NEAR NORMAL HIGHS SUNDAY OVER THE W MTNS AND A BIT  
ABOVE IN THE SUSQ VALLEY. SEE NO REASON TO DEVIATE FROM NBM  
MAXTEMPS, WHICH RANGE FROM AROUND 30F OVER THE HIGHEST TERRAIN  
OF THE ALLEGHENIES, TO AROUND 40F IN THE SUSQ VALLEY.  
 
ALL MODEL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS CONTINUED FAIR/SEASONABLE WEATHER  
WITH LIGHT WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED  
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER PA. DRY AIR ABOVE THE  
BOUNDARY LAYER ON MONDAY AFTERNOON ALONG WITH WEAK/NO INVERSION  
SHOULD SUPPORT RH VALUES DROPPING BELOW GUIDANCE (AS LOW AS  
30%).  
 
 
   
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/  
 
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND TOWARDS A MUCH FLATTER SHORTWAVE  
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY, RESULTING IN LOWER  
CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL. WHILE CONSIDERABLE SPREAD  
STILL REMAINS IN THE ENSEMBLES, ACCUMULATING SNOW NOW APPEARS  
MOST LIKELY SOUTH OF I-80.  
 
THE LATEST EPS/GEFS INDICATE A PAIR OF MORE IMPRESSIVE SHORTWAVE  
TROUGHS WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS PA NEXT WEEK, ONE OCCURRING  
WED PM/THU AM AND ANOTHER ARRIVING TOWARD THE END OF THE  
FORECAST CYCLE NEXT SAT AM. A PRIMARY LOW TRACK WEST OF PA,  
COMBINED WITH A BLOCKING HIGH OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES  
INDICATES A WINTRY MIX IS LIKELY WITH BOTH SYSTEMS. MEAN QPF  
WITH BOTH EVENTS IS AROUND 0.5 INCHES.  
 
IN BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS, A LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY  
LOOKS LIKELY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS OF WED. HOWEVER, AN  
EASTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER N NEW ENGLAND  
AND WARM FRONT SOUTH OF PA WILL LIKELY RESULT IN OVERCAST SKIES  
AND PERHAPS A BIT OF VERY LIGHT WINTRY PRECIP OVER SOUTHERN PA.  
CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH IN A PERIOD OF FAIR AND SEASONABLY  
COLD WEATHER THU PM THROUGH FRI PM ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE HIGH  
PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE STATE.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/  
 
MVFR CEILINGS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP AT THE SOUTHWESTERN  
AIRFIELDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THESE LOW  
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE EVENING.  
PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN AS SNOW AND/OR SLEET ACROSS JST AND  
AOO FIRST BEFORE OVERSPREADING THE REST OF CENTRAL PA BY 23Z.  
LOCATIONS FROM UNV NORTHWARD WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF  
SEEING A 2-4 HOUR PERIOD OF SNOW BEFORE MIXING WITH SLEET AND  
EVENTUALLY FREEZING RAIN. SOME MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE  
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER SOUTH OF UNV WITH WEAK  
ELEVATED INSTABILITY EXPECTED TO BE PRESENT. IFR OR LIFR  
CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND AT ALL CENTRAL PA AIRFIELDS BY 00Z.  
 
LLWS WILL DEVELOP SAT EVENING (AFTER 22Z SAT) AT JST AND AOO,  
WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 2000 FT APPROACHING 50 KTS, WHILE SE SFC  
WINDS LIKELY REMAIN 15 KTS OR LESS AT THE BOTTOM OF A STABLE  
LAYER.  
 
FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WILL TRANSITION TO PLAIN RAIN ACROSS  
SOUTHERN PA FOR JST/AOO/MDT/LNS AROUND 06Z SUNDAY, BUT THE  
REMAINDER OF THE AREA WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW FREEZING.  
PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF FOR MOST SITES BY SUNRISE SUNDAY  
MORNING, BUT LOW CEILINGS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO CAUSE SUB  
VFR CONDITIONS WELL INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON, AND POTENTIALLY INTO  
SUNDAY EVENING ACROSS THE WEST. LIGHT SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN  
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON AS WELL AT BFD AND JST.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
 
MON...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PATCHY MORNING FOG, OTHERWISE VFR CONDS  
LIKELY.  
 
TUE...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITH SNOW, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF UNV.  
 
WED-THU...WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS LIKELY WITH A MIX OF RAIN,  
SNOW, SLEET, AND FREEZING RAIN.  
 
 
   
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST SUNDAY FOR PAZ004-  
010>012-017>019-045-046-049>053-058.  
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST SUNDAY FOR PAZ005-006-  
037-041-042.  
ICE STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 AM EST SUNDAY FOR PAZ024-033-034.  
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST SUNDAY FOR PAZ025>028-  
035-036-056-057-059-063>066.  
 
 
 
 
 
SYNOPSIS...BANGHOFF  
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT/BANGHOFF  
SHORT TERM...BANGHOFF  
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/BAUCO  
AVIATION...COLBERT/BAUCO  
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