662
FXUS61 KCTP 220035
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
835 PM EDT FRI AUG 21 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) TRENDING SEASONABLY COOLER THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH SHOWERY PERIODS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: TRENDING SEASONABLY COOLER THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SHOWERY PERIODS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
LARGE SCALE TROUGH AMPLIFICATION EXPECTED OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL SPELL A MODEST TO
SEASONABLE COOLING TREND WITH SHOWERY PERIODS SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. THE CYCLONIC FLOW MAY KEEP SHOWERS DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE
INTO MONDAY. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW THE
HISTORICAL AVERAGE FOR LATE AUGUST, MAKING IT FEEL MORE LIKE MID
SEPTEMBER ESPECIALLY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. SPC TRIMMED THE MRGL
BACK A BIT TO THE WEST ON SATURDAY, WHICH SHOULD FEATURE EARLY
DAY CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS SPREADING FROM SE TO NW DURING THE
DAY. DRIER/LESS HUMID CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO PREVAIL DURING
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
00Z TAF UPDATE: CONFIDENCE IN OVERNIGHT FOG IS LOWER COMPARED TO
LAST NIGHT, OWING TO DRIER AIR THAT FILTERED INTO THE REGION
DURING THE DAY, ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WINDS TO REMAIN
AROUND 3-6 KTS OVER THE WESTERN TERMINALS (KBFD/KJST/KAOO).
HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN MIST/FOG/LOW STRATUS IS AT KLNS AND TO A
LESSER EXTENT KMDT, WHERE WINDS MAY BE CALMER OVERNIGHT AND A
MARINE LAYER MAY MOVE IN FROM THE EAST & INCREASE LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE/SPOTTY SHOWER ACTIVITY. OTHERWISE, DETAILS FROM THE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION REMAIN LARGELY THE SAME.
18Z TAF DISCUSSION: VFR WILL RULE UNTIL SOME FOG STARTS TO SHOW
UP IN THE VALLEYS OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL COUNTIES. HOWEVER, BFD
MAY ESCAPE UNHARMED. IPT HOLDS THE HIGHEST HIGHEST PROBABILITY
(60%) OF DROPPING TO L/IFR IN EITHER OR BOTH FOG AND LOW CLOUDS.
LOW CLOUDS WILL ALSO START TO FLOW UP INTO THE SOUTHERN TIER
(JST/AOO/MDT/LNS) NEAR OR EVEN JUST BEFORE SUNRISE. SHRA MAY
FOLLOW QUICKLY AFTER THAT. LOOKS LIKE UNV/IPT/BFD SHOULD STAY
DRY UNTIL AFTER 18Z. BUT, THEY WILL ALSO THEN BE IN THE
FAVORABLE AIR FOR SHRA/TSRA TO FORM NEARBY. MIXING SHOULD HELP
THE CIGS RISE INTO LOWER-VFR (FL035) AT MOST SITES. COVERAGE OF
SHRA IN THE AFTN/EVENING WILL EXPAND A BIT, BUT MOST SHRA/TSRA
WILL WAIT UNTIL A DEEP TROUGH DIGGING OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL
FORCE AT LEAST ONE LINE OF STORMS ACROSS OH AND INTO PA. GFS IS
FASTER THAN NAM WITH THIS CONVECTION. BUT, A SAFE BET BASED ON
THESE DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLES OF ALL
KINDS IS THAT BETWEEN 21 AND 00Z THEY WILL GET INTO WARREN CO
AND THEN MOVE EASTWARD.
THE SHRA/TSRA SHOULD MOVE EAST THRU THE NIGHT AND BE OFF TO THE
EAST BY SUNRISE. THE DEEPENING UPPER LOW THEN DROPS OVER THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES AND LOWER ONTARIO. THE DRYNESS OF THE AIRMASS
WILL LIKELY KEEP CONVECTION CONFINED TO NW PA, CLOSER TO THE
UPPER COLD POOL AND IN VICINITY OF THE MOISTURE FROM LE. MONDAY
LOOKS SIMILAR WITH DECENT FLYING WEATHER MOST EVERYWHERE, BUT A
SEVERAL SHOWERS WILL BUG BFD AND ONE OR TWO PERHAPS DIP TOWARD
FIG/UNV.
OUTLOOK...
SUN...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE, MAINLY NW IN SHRA. IMPROVEMENT
ELSEWHERE.
MON-WED...PATCHY MORNING FOG, OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...STEINBUGL
KEY MESSAGES...STEINBUGL
DISCUSSION...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...DANGELO/TEARE
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