340
FXUS61 KCTP 220926
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
526 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* INCREASED RAINFALL AMOUNTS SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
KEY MESSAGES
1) NOTICEABLY COOLER INTO MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES
CHALLENGING RECORD LOW MAXIMUMS ON SATURDAY.
2) WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN DAMPERS OUTDOOR PLANS AND ACTIVITIES
TO START MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: NOTICEABLY COOLER INTO MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND WITH
TEMPERATURES CHALLENGING RECORD LOW MAXIMUMS ON SATURDAY.
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS HAVE ALLOWED FOR TEMPERATURES
TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S ACROSS NORTHERN PA THIS MORNING AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. WHILE TEMPERATURES LIKELY
WON'T FALL TO MUCH FARTHER FROM THEIR CURRENT VALUES BEFORE
SUNRISE, SOME PATCHY FROST IS POSSIBLE IN THE COLDEST LOCATIONS.
MODEL DATA SHOWS THE ANOMALOUS HIGH PRESSURE CHANNELING SOUTHWARD
DOWN THE EAST SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS, SETTING UP A CLASSIC
COOL WEDGE/COLD AIR DAMMING (CAD) PATTERN INTO MEMORIAL DAY
WEEKEND. WE CONTINUE TO REITERATE A BEARISH OUTLOOK FOR DAYTIME
TEMPS FRI-SUN WITH RECORD CHALLENGING LOW MAXES ON THE TABLE FOR
SATURDAY (SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW).
850 MB SHOW A HIGHLY ANOMALOUS V-COMPONENT (WIND FROM THE SSE)
AT 18Z SAT WITH STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES OF +3-4 ST DEVIATIONS
OVER CENTRAL AND NW PA, WHILE WINDS AROUND 925 MB HIGHLIGHT
NEGATIVE U ANOMALIES OF THE SAME MAGNITUDE (FROM THE ESE).
THIS WILL CREATE AN EXPANSIVE LLVL CAD REGIME WITH STRONG
MOISTURE ADVECTION ALOFT, LEADING TO STEADY LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN/DRIZZLE. THE MODERATELY GUSTY EAST/SOUTHEAST WIND WILL
MAKE IT FEEL DOWNRIGHT DREARY/RAW, UNSEASONABLY CHILLY AND
PRETTY MISERABLE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR - ESPECIALLY FOR OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
THE 2-3 DAY COOL STRETCH WILL CERTAINLY BE NOTICEABLE FOLLOWING
AN EARLY SUMMERLIKE SURGE, BUT WON'T HAVE STAYING POWER WITH
TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO MODERATE AND TREND ABOVE NORMAL INTO
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
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KEY MESSAGE 2: WIDESPREAD SOAKING/BENEFICIAL RAIN DAMPERS
OUTDOOR PLANS AND ACTIVITIES TO START MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE
RAIN GRADUALLY SPREADS NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON (BEGINNING
MAINLY AFTER 19-20Z NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF I-80, AND POSSIBLY
NOT UNTIL NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT NEAR THE PA/NY BORDER)
THE RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY, WITH THE
STEADIEST RAIN EXPECTED DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON
AS A 40 TO 50 KNOT LOW-LEVEL JET MOVES OVER THE REGION.
EXPECT WIDESPREAD 1-2" RAINFALL TOTALS WHICH WILL BE VERY
BENEFICIAL FOR D1-D2 DROUGHT AREAS IN THE FAR SOUTHERN TIER INTO
THE LSV. ANOMALOUS UPSLOPE EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW MAY RESULT
IN LOCALLY HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS APPROACHING 3 INCHES ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL PA. THE PRECIP PATTERN TRANSITIONS
FROM STEADY RAIN/DRIZZLE TO MORE OF A SHOWERY/LOW CHANCE THUNDER
REGIME FOR SUNDAY AS THE BEST FORCING MOVES AWAY FROM
PENNSYLVANIA. ANOTHER ROUND OF STEADY RAIN IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST.
AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
LOW CLOUDS WILL SURGE NORTHWARD TODAY, BRINGING MVFR
RESTRICTIONS TO AOO AND JST, THEN UNV, MDT, AND IPT. EVENTUALLY
ALL AIRFIELDS WILL BE RESTRICTED BY THIS EVENING. WIDESPREAD
STRATIFORM RAIN SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE LOWERING CEILINGS AND
WILL BRING REDUCED (MVFR TO IFR) VISIBILITIES.
THERE IS A SIGNAL FOR GUSTY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AT KJST AND KBFD
TODAY, WITH GUSTS 20 TO 25 KTS. ALTHOUGH GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE AT KLNS AND KMDT, CLOUDS/RAIN SHOULD KEEP THE AIRMASS
STABLE AND PREVENT WINDS FROM MIXING DOWN CONSISTENTLY. BY 12Z
SATURDAY, ALL AIRFIELDS SHOULD HAVE AT LEAST MVFR RESTRICTIONS,
OUTLOOK...
FRI...RESTRICTIONS LIKELY WITH RAIN MOVING IN FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH, LASTING INTO FRI NIGHT.
SAT...WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR RESTRICTIONS IN STEADY RAIN
SUN...MINOR IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS AS RAIN TAPERS
OFF
MON...IFR/MVFR EARLY, THEN MVFR IN LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
TUE...CONTINUED MVFR RESTRICTIONS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS,
ESPECIALLY SOUTH
CLIMATE
DAILY RECORD LOW MAXIMUM & FORECAST TEMPERATURES FOR MAY 23:
LOCATION RECORD (YEAR) FORECAST HIGH
HARRISBURG 54 (1982) 54
WILLIAMSPORT 57 (1982) 53
ALTOONA 52 (2005) 51
BRADFORD 45 (1963) 49
STATE COLLEGE 53 (1968) 51
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...BAUCO
KEY MESSAGES...STEINBUGL/BAUCO
DISCUSSION...STEINBUGL/BAUCO
AVIATION...BANGHOFF
CLIMATE...STEINBUGL/BANGHOFF
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