954
FXUS61 KCTP 150730
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
330 AM EDT FRI MAY 15 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* INCREASED CLOUD COVER PERCENTAGE EARLY TODAY AND AGAIN LATE
TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT.
* KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON NBM GUIDANCE MAX TEMPS (MAY BE TOO
WARM) FOR NEXT WEEK. INCLUDED MORE TOPOGRAPHIC/ELEVATION
DETAIL IN THE HOURLY AND MAX TEMPS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WHICH COOLS VALUES ACROSS THE MTNS BY SEVERAL DEG F.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SIGNIFICANT SUMMERLIKE TEMPERATURE BEGINS TODAY AND RAMPS UP
SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK; HIGHEST TEMPERATURES OF THE
YEAR SO FAR
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: SIGNIFICANT SUMMERLIKE TEMPERATURE BEGINS TODAY
AND RAMPS UP SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK; HIGHEST TEMPERATURES
OF THE YEAR SO FAR.
AFTER A COOL START TO MAY, A SIGNIFICANT SUMMERLIKE WARMUP IS
ON THE HORIZON, BEGINNING TODAY AND PEAKING EARLY NEXT WEEK.
GEFS 925-850 NEG TEMP ANOMALIES THIS MORNING WILL REBOUND TO
NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT BEFORE REACHING
LEVELS OF AROUND +1.5-2 ST DEVIATIONS FOR SUNDAY AND +2-3 SIGMA
FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
THIS LARGE SCALE PATTERN SHIFT SHOULD DELIVER A RATHER SUDDEN
WARM SURGE WITH MAX TEMPS BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY PROJECTED TO
REACH WELL INTO THE 80S AND EVEN LOWER 90S.
DAILY RECORD HIGHS MAY BE CHALLENGED BASED ON THE CURRENT FCST
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. MAX TEMPS WERE ADJUSTED LOWER BY A FEW
DEGREES DUE TO A KNOWN SYSTEMATIC BIAS CORRECTION ISSUE
IDENTIFIED IN THE NBM DURING THE SHOULDER SEASONS.
THERE MAY BE SOME POTENTIAL HEAT RISK CONSIDERATIONS LOOMING
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK, MAINLY FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS STEMS
NOT ONLY WITH THE FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED
HUMIDITY, BUT ALSO FROM AN ACCLIMATION PERSPECTIVE. THE SUMMER
LIKE HEAT ISN'T EXPECTED TO LAST LONG WITH THE NEXT COLD
FRONTAL SYSTEM PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION WED AND WED NIGHT WITH
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCTD TSRA.
THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER NOTABLE DIP IN TEMPS (TO NEAR
OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL VALUES) NEXT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY,
ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM.
AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BENEATH A CLOSED LOW THAT IS EXITING
THE REGION WILL MAINTAIN PRIMARILY MVFR ACROSS THE
WESTERN/CENTRAL TERMINALS (KJST/KAOO/KUNV) THROUGH THE MORNING,
WITH IFR BEING FAVORED AT KBFD & VFR FAVORED ELSEWHERE DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME. SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THIS LOW WILL RESULT
IN LOW CLOUDS SCATTERING OUT WEST-TO-EAST OVER THE COURSE OF THE
DAY, WITH REGIONWIDE VFR BY THE LATE MORNING & AFTERNOON HOURS.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A HIGH PRESSURE NOSING IN FROM
THE MID ATLANTIC & THE DEPARTING LOW WILL SUPPORT DAYTIME NW
WINDS AROUND 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 KTS, FOLLOWED
BY WINDS DIMINISHING IN THE EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
SAT-SAT NIGHT...VFR IS LIKELY MUCH OF THE TIME, ALTHOUGH BRIEF
RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BFD AND LESS LIKELY AT
JST/UNV/AOO/IPT DUE TO ISOLD/SCT SHRA/TSRA.
SUN...SCT SHRA/TSRA NW, VFR ELSEWHERE.
MON...LOW CIGS/ISOLD --SHRA POSS, MAINLY S.
TUE...SCT SHRA W. OTHERWISE, NO SIG WX.
CLIMATE
DAILY RECORD MAX TEMPERATURE FOR MAY 18-19:
5/18 5/19
HARRISBURG 94 IN 1962 95 IN 1962
WILLIAMSPORT 95 IN 1962 96 IN 1996
ALTOONA 91 IN 1962/1996/2017 92 IN 1996
BRADFORD 85 IN 1962 85 IN 1962
STATE COLLEGE 92 IN 1962 92 IN 1934/1996
PLEASE NOTE: STATE COLLEGE CO-OPERATIVE OBSERVATIONS ARE A
24-HOUR SUMMARY TAKEN ONCE PER DAY AROUND 7 AM (7AM-7AM).
THEREFORE, A MAX TEMP OCCURRING IN THE DAYLIGHT OR LATE IN THE
DAY IS USUALLY REPORTED IN THE _NEXT_ DAY'S OBSERVATION. ALSO,
THE SAME MIN TEMP MAY BE REPORTED ON TWO CONSECUTIVE DAYS IF THE
MIN OCCURS AT OBSERVATION TIME.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...LAMBERT
KEY MESSAGES...LAMBERT
DISCUSSION...LAMBERT
AVIATION...TEARE
CLIMATE...DANGELO/STEINBUGL
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