706
FXUS61 KCTP 091738
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1238 PM EST MON FEB 9 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* INCREASED POP, QPF, SNOW, AND WINDS OVER THE WESTERN AND
NORTHERN ALLEGHENIES TUESDAY NIGHT - WEDNESDAY NIGHT
KEY MESSAGES
1) SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS OVER THE ALLEGHENIES TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
2) RISK MANAGING POTENTIAL FOR VALENTINE'S DAY WEEKEND STORM
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS OVER THE ALLEGHENIES
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INITIAL SHOT OF WARM ADVECTION PRECIP SHOULD STAY ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE PA/NY BORDER LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. CAN'T
RULE OUT SOME PASSING RAIN OR MIXED PRECIP WITH THE OCCLUDED
FRONT TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE STRONGEST PRECIP SIGNAL
(FROM BOTH A MODEL AND FORECASTER CONFIDENCE PERSPECTIVE) IS
FOCUSED IN THE TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY NIGHT TIMEFRAME. THIS IS
WHEN SEASONABLY COLD WNWLY POST FRONTAL CYCLONIC FLOW SHOULD
BRING LAKE/TERRAIN ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS TO THE WESTERN AND
NORTHERN MTNS. SOME SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES COULD SPILL
FARTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST OVER THE ALLEGHENY FRONT AND REACH THE
CENTRAL RIDGE/VALLEY REGION BETWEEN I99/US-220 AND I81. SNOW
SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER OFF THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES
EASTWARD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY ARE IN THE 1-3" RANGE OVER
THE FAVORED LAKE AND UPSLOPE SNOWBELTS IN THE NW MTNS AND LAUREL
HIGHLANDS. <1" IS FORECAST ELSEWHERE ALONG THE ALLEGHENY FRONT
OR NORTHWEST OF I99-US220. MAX WIND GUSTS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT ARE FCST IN THE 25-35 MPH RANGE WITH SOME
POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS TO EXCEED 40 MPH AND APPROACH LOW END ADVY
CRITERIA OVER AND IMMEDIATELY DOWNWIND OF THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS.
KEY MESSAGE 2: RISK MANAGING POTENTIAL FOR VALENTINE'S DAY
WEEKEND STORM
ASIDE FROM THE 09/12Z GFS TO SOME EXTENT, AN ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS
INCLUDING ECMWF, CMC, NBM, AND AI RUNS WOULD LEAN TOWARD AN
INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR WINTRY WEATHER ARRIVING BY THE SECOND
HALF OF VALENTINE'S DAY WEEKEND. THAT SAID, THERE IS STILL PLENTY
OF TIME AND SPACE BETWEEN NOW AND THEN. WINTRY WEATHER/IMPACTS,
PARTICULARLY DETAILS SURROUNDING HOW MUCH AND WHAT PTYPES, ARE
UNCERTAIN/UNCLEAR. CONFIDENCE RIGHT NOW IS ON LOW SIDE, BUT THE
POTENTIAL CERTAINLY EXISTS AND WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED IN THE
COMING DAYS.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL ALLOW FOR VFR CONDITIONS
UNDER MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
INCREASE FROM THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL TRACK TO OUR NORTH ON TUESDAY. MOISTURE
WILL BE VERY LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM, BUT A FEW SNOW SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHWEST PA IN THE EARLY MORNING AS A WARM
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. CEILINGS GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH THE NIGHT,
BUT SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY FOR ALL TAF SITES.
OUTLOOK...
TUE...SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.
WED-THU...SMALL CHANCE FOR SOME VERY LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION,
MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH. TRACE AMTS.
FRI...SMALL CHANCE FOR SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTH.
CLIMATE
PRELIM RECORD LOW MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WERE SET AT BRADFORD
(-19F) AND ALTOONA (-3) THIS MORNING.
BFD PREVIOUS RECORD WAS -12 SET BACK IN 1963.
AOO PREVIOUS RECORD WAS 1 SET BACK IN 1979.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...STEINBUGL
KEY MESSAGES...STEINBUGL
DISCUSSION...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...BAUCO
CLIMATE...STEINBUGL/NPB
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