584
FXUS61 KCTP 231104
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
704 AM EDT THU APR 23 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY LOOK LIKE THEY WILL TURN OUT MOSTLY DRY
AS MODELS CONTINUE TO PUSH THE THE MAIN BATCH OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS OUT QUICKER.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SHOWERS LIKELY AND A THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE FRIDAY (WEST).
2) RAIN AREA-WIDE FRI NIGHT-SAT NIGHT DOES NOT LOOK HEAVY.
SUNDAY NOW LOOKING DRY.
3) SEVERAL MORE SHOTS AT RAIN FOLLOW FOR THE NEW WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: SHOWERS LIKELY AND A THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE FRIDAY
(WEST).
WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN
COUNTIES ON FRIDAY WILL HELP TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA,
MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON, BUT ONE OR TWO COULD FORM IN THE EARLY
MORNING. MOST MODELS PRODUCE CONVECTION, AND CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.
CLEARFIELD COUNTY SEEMS LIKE IT WOULD BE THE MOST-LIKELY PLACE
TO GET 2 OR MORE SHRAS. PWAT BARELY GETS NEAR 1" BY THE END OF
THE DAY. BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE AROUND THERE. POINT AMOUNTS
MAY NEAR 0.25", BUT CHC FOR MORE THAN THAT IS VERY LOW. LIGHT
EASTERLY WIND TO THE EAST OF THE WARM FRONT COULD KEEP THE TEMPS
THERE DOWN 4-7F VS THURS.
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KEY MESSAGE 2: RAIN AREA-WIDE FRI NIGHT-SAT NIGHT DOES NOT LOOK
HEAVY. SUNDAY NOW LOOKING DRY.
MCS LOOKS LIKELY TO DROP DOWN FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES FRIDAY
NIGHT, BUT THE 8H JET LOOKS WEAK. TIMING LOOKS MORE-SOLID,
NOW, WITH THE BULK OF THE RAIN IN THE SECOND HALF OF FRI NIGHT
AND EARLY SAT. SOME MODELS/MEMBERS LINGER PRECIP MUCH OF SAT
WITH THE BIG UPPER LOW OVER NRN NEW ENGLAND
RETROGRADING/WOBBLING WESTWARD SLIGHTLY. ENERGY DROPPING
SOUTHEAST COULD STILL PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO TRIGGER SCT
SHRA/TSRA SAT - MAINLY IN THE EAST.
THERE COULD BE A LITTLE BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN FROM TSRA, BUT THE
OVERALL QPF FOR FRI NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT IS 1" OR LESS.
EVERYTHING IS GROWN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE CWA. EVEN
THE N IS SEEING A LITTLE COLOR ON THE HILLS. THEREFORE, THERE
IS NO THREAT FOR FLOODING. OVERALL, SAT LOOKS 10F COOLER THAN
FRI ON THE WHOLE, WITH THE E COOLER (50S) VS W (60S).
UPPER RIDGING BUILDS IN ON SUN WITH A DRYING TREND CONTINUING
AMONGST THE PREPONDERANCE OF SOLUTIONS. LAG IS ABOUT THE ONLY
THING KEEPING A 20 POP IN FOR SUN FOR NOW. OVERALL, IT LOOKS
LIKE THE SKY WILL BRIGHTEN SUN WITH MAXES IN THE 60S.
------------------------------------
KEY MESSAGE 3: SEVERAL MORE SHOTS AT RAIN FOLLOW FOR THE NEW
WEEK.
UPPER LOW TO OUR NE FINALLY SLIDES EAST AND ALLOWS A BRIEF VISIT
FROM DRY WEATHER LATER SUN-MON. THE UPPER RIDGE IS WEAK AND
BREAKS DOWN QUICKLY, THOUGH AND MOISTURE FROM THE WEST ROLLS IN
MON NIGHT/TUES. THE PATTERN LOOKS FAVORABLE FOR AT LEAST TWO
SHOTS OF RAIN WITH TWO COLD FRONTS MID-WEEK. TIMING AND DETAILS
ARE UNCERTAIN, THOUGH. NEITHER FRONT LOOKS LIKE A SIGNIFICANT
TRANSITION, AND TEMPS STAY SEASONABLE. MANY PLACES IN CENTRAL
PA WOULD WELCOME ADDITIONAL RAINFALL, ESP THE S.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
PATCHY FOG NEAR SOUTHEAST AIRFIELDS WILL MIX OUT EARLY TODAY,
GIVING WAY TO PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED
AREAWIDE.
OUTLOOK...
FRI...LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE. VFR TO MVFR.
SAT-SUN..PERIODS OF RAIN WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS.
MON...MAINLY VFR, DECREASING CEILINGS LATER IN THE DAY.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...DANGELO
KEY MESSAGES...DANGELO
DISCUSSION...DANGELO
AVIATION...BANGHOFF/RXR
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