916
FXUS61 KCTP 181128
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
728 AM EDT MON OCT 18 2021
SYNOPSIS
COOL NORTHWEST FLOW OFF OF THE WARMER GREAT LAKES COULD BRING
MORE LIGHT SHOWERS TO PARTS OF THE ALLEGHENIES AND CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS TODAY, WITH MAINLY FAIR WEATHER ELSEWHERE. DRY
CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW ON TUESDAY, WITH A MODERATING TREND IN
TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
LAKE EFFECT DECREASING EARLY THIS MORNING BUT QUASISTATIONARY
5H SHEAR AXIS STILL EXTENDS FROM EASTERN ONTARIO TO SOUTHEAST
PA AND COUPLED NW BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW. EXPECT A LULL IN SHOWER
ACTIVITY THROUGH LATE MORNING WITH ISOLD TO SCT SPRINKLES MAINLY
NORTH OF I80 BEFORE AFOREMENTIONED SHEAR AXIS BUCKLES YET AGAIN
BY THIS AFTERNOON. COOLING TEMPS ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SHEAR AXIS ALOFT ALONG WITH WARMING IN THE 700-500 MB LAYER WILL
PRODUCE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT CONSIDERABLE BROKEN
CLOUDS AND ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SPRINKLES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
MTNS AND PERHAPS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS. ELSEWHERE, ACROSS THE
RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION OF THE STATE, INCREASING AMOUNTS OF
SUNSHINE ARE EXPECTED FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 50F OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS, TO
THE LOWER 60S IN THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND TUESDAY ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST HALF OF CENTRAL PA AS A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
AT THE SFC AND ALOFT BUILDS IN FROM THE MIDWEST. DECREASING
CLOUDS WILL BE SEEN OVER THE NW HALF AS HEIGHTS RISE AND
BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS, DESPITE CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE CHILLY, RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 30S
OVER NORMALLY COLDER AREAS OF THE NORTHERN TIER, TO THE 40S
ELSEWHERE. TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE NOTICEABLY WARMER, WITH
HIGHS RANGING IN THE 60S AREA-WIDE, PERHAPS TOUCHING 70 FOR SOME
IN THE SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
WEEK, PRODUCING DRY WEATHER AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON
THURSDAY, PROVIDING OUR NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS AND GUSTY
WINDS. A RETURN TO COOLER TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED LATE NEXT
WEEK, BEHIND THE FRONT.
AFTER THAT, IT LOOKS LIKE GENERAL UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHINESS WILL
BE IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. INTO NEXT WEEKEND, WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR A REINFORCING SHOT OF SEASONABLY COOL AIR AND
LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS. LOW TEMPS SAT NIGHT AND SUN NIGHT ARE
PROGGED TO BE THE COLDEST YET THIS SEASON - WITH WIDESPREAD LOWS
IN THE 30S POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT IF WINDS ARE LIGHT AND WE END UP
UNDER THE CORE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. BELIEVE IT OR NOT,
THAT'S JUST A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE.
AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
GUSTY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL RAMP BACK UP TODAY AS VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAIL AREAWIDE. A SCT TO BKN DECK WILL ADVECT OVER THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AS LAKE-ENHANCED CLOUDS AND A FEW
SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.
OVERNIGHT, CLEAR SKIES ARE FORECAST AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
CLOSER TO PA. AS SUCH, WINDS WILL GO CALM AT THE SURFACE AND
LLWS WILL BE A CONCERN ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT WITH 30 TO 35KT
WINDS AT ABOUT 2KFT AGL. SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE IN
THE VALLEYS NEAR BFD EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK...
TUE-WED...GENERALLY VFR.
THU...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE LATE IN SHRA WITH COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE.
FRI...LINGERING MVFR CIGS N/W. BECOMING VFR ELSEWHERE.
CLIMATE
THE FIRST HALF OF OCTOBER HAS SEEN RECORD-SETTING PERSISTENTLY-
WARM TEMPERATURES, PARTICULARLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
HERE ARE THE AVERAGE MONTH- TO- DATE TEMPERATURES AT SITES
AROUND CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA FOR THE PERIOD OF OCTOBER 1 -
OCTOBER 16, 2021 AND WHERE 2021 RANKS:
SITE MEAN AVERAGE 2021 MEAN MINIMUM 2021
TEMPERATURE RANK TEMPERATURE RANK
ALTOONA 64.0 2ND 55.4 2ND
BRADFORD 62.3 1ST 53.6 1ST
HARRISBURG 67.0 1ST 59.6 1ST
STATE COLLEGE 64.4 1ST 56.3 1ST
WILLIAMSPORT 64.8 1ST 57.1 1ST
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...JUREWICZ/DEVOIR
LONG TERM...EVANEGO/COLBERT
AVIATION...COLBERT/BANGHOFF
CLIMATE...BANGHOFF
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page