520
FXUS61 KCTP 281110
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
710 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2025
SYNOPSIS
* HIGH PRESSURE FOR ONE MORE (FULL) DAY
* SOAKING RAIN LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT TAPERS TO
SHOWERS FOR HALLOWEEN
* BREEZY/SHOWERY/CHILLY START TO NOVEMBER
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
A LITTLE FOG IS SHOWING UP IN THE NE AND A LITTLE LOW CLOUD IS
FORMING IN THE SW. NEITHER SHOULD BE ANY TROUBLE. THE SUNSHINE
TODAY WILL MIX THEM AWAY. DEWPOINTS OF 28-34F SHOULD KEEP
DIURNAL CU TO A MINIMUM. MASSIVE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVERHEAD
STAYS PUT FOR ANOTHER 24 HRS. TEMPS WILL BE JUST A LITTLE
CHILLIER THAN NORMAL (AGAIN).
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/
THAT BIG HIGH DOES GRADUALLY WEAKEN IN PLACE. THE DEVELOPING
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID-MS AND TN VALLEYS WILL START TO DRAW
ENOUGH MOISTURE INTO THE SRN TIER OF THE STATE LATER WED TO
START MAKING RAINFALL. IT WILL GET MORE MOIST THROUGH THE DAY
WED, BUT DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS REMAIN >10F FOR MOST PLACES UNTIL
EARLY EVENING. THEREFORE, WE DO EXPECT THE CLOUDS TO LOWER AND
THICKEN, BUT RAIN WILL STRUGGLE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS. AREAS ALONG AND S OF THE TURNPIKE WILL HAVE THE
HIGHER (50-60) POPS ON WED. CLEAR SKY TONIGHT ACROSS THE N WILL
HELP MINS GET BACK TO NEAR WHAT THEY ARE THIS (TUES) AM. THE
INCREASING CLOUDS WILL KEEP THE S A FEW DEGS MILDER.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM ARE MINOR, MAINLY A BUMP UP IN POPS AS
THE STORM TIMING BECOMES MORE CERTAIN. THE OVERALL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS STILL HOVER AROUND 2" IN THE CENTRAL MTNS, AND 1.5-2.0"
INCHES ELSEWHERE. STABILITY SEEMS FAIRLY HIGH, SO WE'VE KEPT THE
WORDING AS "RAIN" AND NOT "SHOWERS." BUT, A RUMBLE OR TWO OF
THUNDER ISN'T OUT OF THE QUESTION. HOWEVER, DEEP/UPRIGHT
CONVECTION IS NOT THE MAIN DRIVER OF PRECIP WITH THIS ONE. WPC
IS TRIMMING BACK THE MRGL EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOKS WHICH HAD
BEEN POSTED FOR BOTH WED-NIGHT (DAY2), AND THURS-NIGHT (DAY3).
THE MRGL THREAT AREA BARELY TOUCHES THE LAURELS FOR DAY2. WE'RE
STILL DRY. THE TREES AREN'T TAKING UP AS MUCH WATER AS THEY WERE
A MONTH AGO, BUT THE EXPECTED LONG-DURATION AND INTENSITY OF
THE RAINFALL DOES NOT LEND ITSELF TO MUCH MORE THAN NUISANCE
FLOODING - MAINLY FROM LEAF-CLOGGED STORM DRAINS. THIS WOULD BE
A GOOD TIME TO CALL YOUR MUNICIPALITY AND SEE IF THEY WILL TRY
TO CLEAR OFF THE DRAINS.
PREV...
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN A WIDESPREAD, SOAKING
RAINFALL FROM LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHWARD INTO PENNSYLVANIA AS ITS PARENT
UPPER TROUGH INTERACTS WITH AN UPPER LOW TO OUR NORTHEAST,
PULLING A PLUME OF MOISTURE INTO PENNSYLVANIA FROM THE ATLANTIC.
THE TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT APPROACHES THE
REGION, WHICH SHOULD CENTER THE STRONGEST SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING
RIGHT OVER CENTRAL PA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
NBM QPF THROUGH THURSDAY RANGES FROM JUST OVER AN INCH OVER
NORTHWESTERN PA, TO AN INCH AND THREE QUARTERS FOR AREAS EAST
OF I-99 AND SOUTH OF I-80. AN ADDITIONAL 1/2 INCH OR SO OF RAIN
LOOKS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. IT IS WORTH
NOTING THAT THERE ARE STILL QUITE A FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS THAT
SUGGEST PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL PA COULD SEE UPWARDS OF 2
INCHES OF RAIN. WPC HAS EXPANDED THE MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL TO INCLUDE ALL OF CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA, BUT WITH THE
DRIER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKS, THE
RAINFALL SHOULD LARGELY BE BENEFICIAL.
IN ADDITION TO THE RAINFALL, WINDS WILL BE GUSTY ON THURSDAY
WITH A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AROUND THE LOW. WIND
GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED, WITH SOME GUSTS TO 35 MPH
POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE ALLEGHENIES.
WHILE THERE ARE STILL SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS,
EXPECT RAINFALL TO GRADUALLY TAPER OFF LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY
FRIDAY AS THE LOW BEGINS TO MOVE OFF TO THE NORTH. LAKE EFFECT
AND UPSLOPE RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
UPPER TROUGHING REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL REMAIN NEAR
TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL, GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S
TO THE MID TO UPPER 50S. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 30S AND 40S.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
PATCHY VALLEY FOG HAS STAYED AWAY FROM ALL TAF SITES THIS
MORNING AND WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SKIES WILL
BE MAINLY CLEAR THROUGH THE DAY TODAY WITH WINDS OUT OF THE
EAST-NORTHEAST AROUND 10 KNOTS. GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON. CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH TONIGHT, BUT CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
VFR.
OUTLOOK...
WED-THU...RAIN SPREADS SOUTH TO NORTH WITH RESTRICTIONS MOST
LIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
FRI-SAT...BREEZY WITH FREQUENT SHOWERS DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...GUSEMAN/DANGELO/BAUCO
AVIATION...BAUCO
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