427
FXUS61 KCTP 112005
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
305 PM EST TUE NOV 11 2025
SYNOPSIS
* LAKE-EFFECT AND UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE THIS VETERAN'S
DAY AS BLUSTERY WINDS KEEP WIND CHILLS NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING
* GUSTY WINDS IN THE LAURELS AND LAKE EFFECT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
* BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE WEEKEND WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
DRIER CONDITIONS AND A GRADUAL WARM UP TO NEAR AVERAGE.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/
NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG LOW THAT TRACKED ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO BRING LAKE EFFECT/UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS TO CENTRAL PA TODAY. DEFINITE LULL IN THE HEAVIEST, MOST
ORGANIZED BANDS AND LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING/WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES WERE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.
SNOW SHOWERS WITH A LAKE HURON CONNECTION ORIENTED NW TO SE
WILL SLOWLY SHIFT TO A MORE W TO E ALIGNMENT TODAY AS WINDS TURN
COUNTER CLOCKWISE THANKS TO THE RETREATING LOW PRESSURE CENTER.
WITH SUCH COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT, STRONG SNOW SHOWERS/SQUALLS
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY AND WE COULD EVEN SEE A FEW
SHOWERS MAKE IT INTO SOUTHEAST PA.
THE SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER STILL LIGHTS UP FOR THIS AFTERNOON,
SO SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SQUALLS ARE STILL POSSIBLE, DESPITE
CURRENT DIMINISHED ACTIVITY AT THIS TIME.
AS IS TYPICAL IN THIS WESTERLY FLOW REGIME IN THE COLD SEASON,
CLOUDY SKIES WILL PERSIST ALONG/WEST/NORTH OF I-99 & I-80 WHILE
DOWNSLOPING EAST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT SHOULD SUPPORT SOME
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS FARTHER SOUTHEAST. AIR TEMPERATURES
INCREASING TO ABOVE FREEZING THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHEAST PA
WILL HELP MITIGATE THE RISK FOR FLASH FREEZE CONDITIONS THERE,
BUT THE RISK WILL BE MAXIMIZED ALONG AND NORTH OF I-80.
MOTORISTS SHOULD DELAY TRAVEL OR EXIT THE HIGHWAY WHEN A SNOW
SQUALL WARNING IS ISSUED.
BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING, BUT THE
STRONGEST GUSTS HAVE SUBSIDED FOR TODAY, SO ALLOWED THE WIND
ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AS WELL.
SOUTHWEST WINDS AND A QUICK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE BRINGING
CLOUDS OVERHEAD TONIGHT MEAN SLIGHTLY MILDER TEMPERATURES. WE'LL
SEE PRECIPITATION CONTINUE NORTH OF I-80 WITH PERHAPS A BIT
MORE RAIN MIXING IN WITH SNOW. A COATING TO A HALF INCH OF
ADDITIONAL SNOW IS POSSIBLE IN THE TYPICAL HIGHER ELEVATIONS
WEST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT.
SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
WEDNESDAY LOOKS SIMILAR TO TUESDAY, THOUGH JUST A BIT WARMER,
AND LESS IN THE WAY OF COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS. A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR WINDS GUSTS IN THE 30 TO 35 MPH
RANGE WEDNESDAY, WITH SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL
FOR GUSTS OVER THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS TO APPROACH 40 TO 45 MPH. A
WIND ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED, THOUGH PERHAPS NOT
EXTENDING AS FAR NORTH.
WINDS ALOFT WILL BE MORE ZONAL, HELPING STEER LAKE EFFECT
SHOWERS (RAIN/SNOW MIX) MAINLY NORTH OF I-80 ON WEDNESDAY. WARM
ADVECTION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES TRENDING UP, WITH HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE MIDDLE 30S IN THE NORTHERN TIER TO LOW 50S IN THE
SOUTHEAST. GUSTY WINDS WILL STILL PACK A PUNCH, BUT WON'T FEEL
QUITE AS CHILLING WHEN THE TEMPERATURES ARE NOTICEABLY WARMER.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK, KEEPING THE CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST EACH DAY THROUGH THURSDAY, ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHWEST
PA. CLOUDS WILL PERSIST IN THE NORTHWEST, WHILE A MIX OF SUN AND
CLOUDS IS MORE OF THE NORM IN THE SOUTHEAST.
THE DECEMBER-LIKE COLD AIRMASS IS FORECAST TO RETREAT LATER IN
THE WEEK, WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING CLOSER TO SEASONAL
AVERAGES. HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY
INTO EARLY SUNDAY, WHICH SHOULD KEEP US MAINLY DRY INTO THE
BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND.
ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM UPPER SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WILL REACH THE GREAT LAKES EARLY IN THE WEEKEND AND
SUPPORT A LOW PRESSURE/FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS PA
SUNDAY INTO NEXT MONDAY. AT THIS POINT, THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO
BE NOT AS STRONG OR AS COLD AS OUR CURRENT ONE, SO ANY PRECIP
LOOKS TO BE MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN/RAIN SHOWERS.
AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
A WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW OF ABNORMALLY COLD AIR MOVING OVER
THE GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP BANDS OF SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE AREA
THIS AFT. THE MOST INTENSE BAND NOW JUST EAST OF STATE COLLEGE.
BFD WILL BE THE MAIN SITE TO CATCH THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THIS
BAND THIS AFT. THE BANDS MAY CLIP JST, AOO, UNV, AND IPT THIS
AFTERNOON AS WELL. SHOULD REMAIN DRY AND VFR AT MDT AND LNS.
AS THE SUN SETS AND THE WINDS BACK MORE TO THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST
OVERNIGHT, CLOUDS AND BANDS OF SNOW WILL TEND TO BREAK UP MORE
AND LIFT NORTHWARD.
MODELS HAVE WINDS SHIFT BACK TO THE WEST MORE BY EARLY AFTERNOON
ON WEDNESDAY, SO SITES LIKE BFD MAY HAVE MORE IN THE WAY OF
SNOW SHOWERS AGAIN. MOST AREAS WILL BE VFR ON WEDNESDAY. WINDS
WILL PICK BACK UP AGAIN BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFT.
OUTLOOK...
THU...RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS OVER NORTHWEST PA ALONG WITH GUSTY
WINDS.
FRI...IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED, WITH WINDS DIMINISHING AND
LINGERING -SHSN ACROSS NW PA DIMINISHING AS WELL.
SAT...DRY, GENERALLY VFR.
SUN...INCREASING CLOUDS AND MILDER BUT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS,
MAINLY LATE.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR PAZ017-018-024-
025-033-034.
SYNOPSIS...BANGHOFF
NEAR TERM...BANGHOFF/GARTNER
SHORT TERM...BANGHOFF/GARTNER
LONG TERM...BANGHOFF/GARTNER
AVIATION...MARTIN
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page