842
FXUS61 KCTP 051800
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
200 PM EDT FRI JUN 5 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* THE SLIGHT RISK SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SATURDAY HAS BEEN
EXPANDED TO INCLUDE NEARLY ALL OF CENTRAL PA.
* INTRODUCED A MENTION OF PATCHY FOG LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) ONGOING DRY SPELL PRECEDES SURGE OF MIDSUMMER HEAT FOR THE
FIRST WEEKEND OF JUNE
2) SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
3) WARMTH SURGES AGAIN NEXT WEEK WITH A CLASSIC SUMMERLIKE
PATTERN EXPECTED - THOUGH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: ONGOING DRY SPELL PRECEDES SURGE OF MIDSUMMER
HEAT FOR THE FIRST WEEKEND OF JUNE
THE 8-10 DAY STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER CONTINUES TODAY. MAX TEMPS
CLIMB +5-15F ABOVE CLIMO INTO THE 80-90F RANGE TODAY AND
SATURDAY. DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE 50S TODAY AND 60S ON
SATURDAY, WHICH WILL BRING NOTICEABLE HUMIDITY BACK TO THE
REGION. TONIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT WILL ALSO BE NOTICEABLY
WARMER THAN RECENT NIGHTS, WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 60S.
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KEY MESSAGE 2: SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
A COLD FRONT SLIDING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL
BRING AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/T-STORMS SATURDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. SPC HAS EXPANDED THE LEVEL 2/5 (SLGT)
SEVERE T-STORM RISK ACROSS NEARLY ALL OF CENTRAL PA. LATEST
HIRES GUIDANCE SHOWS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO
THE NUMBER AND TIMING OF CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS THROUGH THE DAY
SATURDAY, WITH SOME OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWING SHOWERS AND LEFTOVER
THUNDERSTORMS ROLLING INTO THE NW ZONES AS EARLY AS SATURDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER, THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AS SBCAPE CLIMBS TO NEAR 1500
J/KG AND AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROVIDES BROAD SCALE
ASCENT AND INCREASING WIND SHEAR. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL
WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE HAZARDS, BUT A TORNADO CAN NOT BE
RULED OUT PARTICULARLY IN WESTERN ZONES WHERE THERE IS A LITTLE
MORE TURNING IN THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE.
MODEL DATA HAS REDUCED ODDS FOR RAIN ON SUNDAY, WITH MUCH OF THE
PRECIP ENDING AROUND MIDNIGHT SAT NIGHT. RAINFALL TOTALS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE HIGHEST IN THE WEST AND NORTHWEST, WITH STORMS
PRODUCING LESS RAINFALL OVER THE SOUTHEAST AS THE EVENING WEARS
ON AND DAYTIME HEATING IS LOST. THIS PATTERN DOES NOT BODE WELL
FOR ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS. PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS CLOUDS CLEAR OUT BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT AND THE WET GROUND ALLOWS FOR SFC RH NEAR 100 PCT
IN SPOTS. KEY LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE HOW QUICKLY THE WINDS
DIMINISH AS SKIES CLEAR OUT.
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KEY MESSAGE 3: WARMTH SURGES AGAIN NEXT WEEK WITH A CLASSIC
SUMMERLIKE PATTERN EXPECTED - THOUGH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS.
FOLLOWING A MODEST COOL DOWN ON MONDAY, EMERGING MODEL DATA
CONTINUES TO SIGNAL DRY PRECIP PATTERN WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR THE REST OF NEXT WEEK. EVEN THE COOL DOWN ON
MONDAY WILL SEE ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF THE
AREA. LONG RANGE MODELS DIVERGE ON POTENTIAL SOLUTIONS TOWARD
THE END OF NEXT WEEK. A PREVAILING RIDGE IN PLACE OVER THE
EASTERN US WILL ENSURE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES (80S AND 90S),
BUT AN UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW COULD DEVELOP. SUCH A SOLUTION
WOULD BRING COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND
LEADING TO DAILY AFTERNOON PULSE THUNDERSTORMS. IF THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW DOES NOT FORM, VERY WARM AND DRIER CONDITIONS WOULD
BE MORE LIKELY.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
RIDGING ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL MAINTAIN VFR WITH RAIN-FREE
CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING (07Z-10Z). WSW WIND
GUSTS AROUND 15 KTS ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL PA (KBFD/KJST/KAOO/KUNV)
WILL DIMINISH BETWEEN 22Z FRIDAY - 00Z SATURDAY AS THE BOUNDARY
LAYER DECOUPLES, LEAVING LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WITH A SW
TENDENCY OVERNIGHT. A BORDERLINE LLWS SIGNAL EMERGES BETWEEN
05Z-12Z SATURDAY OVER WEST-CENTRAL PA, CHARACTERIZED BY 0-2 KFT
SHEAR AT 240 DEG ~30 KTS, THOUGH NO MENTIONS WERE ADDED AT THIS
TIME GIVEN SUB-THRESHOLD SHEAR ON GUIDANCE + HIGHER LLWS
PROBABILITIES OVER THE OHIO VALLEY CLOSER TO THE TROUGH.
CLOUD BASES WILL GRADUALLY LOWER WITH SKY COVER TRENDING BKN-
OVC OVERNIGHT AS MOISTURE ADVECTION CONTINUES AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE, WITH SHOWER ACTIVITY INCREASING THROUGH
THE MORNING AS WELL (CURRENTLY HANDLED BY PROB30S DUE TO LOW
CERTAINTY IN -SHRA PREVAILING AT ANY ONE TERMINAL).
NEVERTHELESS, RESTRICTIONS REMAIN UNLIKELY THROUGH THE END OF
THE 18Z TAF FOR MOST OUTSIDE OF KBFD, WHERE GREATER LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY BE IN PLACE. SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION, AN
NBM/HREF/LAMP BLEND WAS USED TO HANDLE MVFR TIMING AND
LIKELIHOOD (30-50% CHANCE). OTHERWISE, SW WINDS INCREASE TO
10-15 KTS GUSTING TO 20-25 KTS MIDDAY, WITH -TSRA CHANCES
APPEARING MORE PROBABLE (>30% CHANCE) AFTER 18Z AS THE RIGHT
SIDE OF A CYCLONIC JET STREAK BEGINS MOVING OVERHEAD.
OUTLOOK...
SAT...VFR CONDS FAVORED EARLY, BRIEF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN
LATE-DAY -SHRA/TSRA.
SUN-TUE...VFR FAVORED OUTSIDE OF ISOLATED MORNING FOG.
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN -SHRA/-TSRA EARLY SUN & AGAIN ON TUE.
WED...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN -SHRA/-TSRA.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...DANGELO/COLBERT
KEY MESSAGES...STEINBUGL/COLBERT
DISCUSSION...DANGELO/STEINBUGL/COLBERT
AVIATION...TEARE
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