393  
FXUS61 KCTP 191340  
AFDCTP  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA  
940 AM EDT FRI OCT 19 2018  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE BY TO THE SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA TODAY.  
A COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS WILL MOVE THROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND,  
DROPPING TEMPERATURES AND LEADING TO LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS.  
COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES BUT MAINLY DRY WEATHER ARE  
EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/
 
 
IT WAS ANOTHER CRISP COLD OCTOBER MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL PA.  
TEMPS ARE RECOVERING NICELY FROM WIDESPREAD MINS IN THE 20S AND  
30S. BRIGHT SUNSHINE WILL GRADUALLY BE DIMMED BY INCREASING HIGH  
CLOUDS AS THE DAY WEARS ON, BUT IT WILL BE A NEARLY PERFECT  
OCTOBER DAY. WE HAVEN'T HAD TOO MANY IF ANY OF THESE CLEAR AND  
CRISP DAYS THIS AUTUMN. EXPECT THE SSW WIND TO START TO PICK UP  
OVER THE WRN MTNS LATE THIS MORNING, BUT STAY LIGHT IN THE MID  
& LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. GUSTS COULD GET INTO THE 20S ON THE HIGHER  
ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTH AND LAURELS LATER TODAY. MAXES HOLD IN  
THE M-U50S - CLOSE TO, BUT JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/
 
 
A TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE WEST WILL BRING ONLY A MEAGER AMOUNT  
OF MOISTURE WITH IT TONIGHT. PWAT BARELY GOES ABOVE NORMAL ALONG  
THE SRN BORDER FOR A FEW HOURS TONIGHT. THE TROUGH IS MOVING  
QUICKLY AND RAIN/SHOWERS SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT. PRECIP SHOULD  
STAY ALL RAIN OVERNIGHT AS THE WIND AND TEMPS STAY UP, WITH THE  
TEMPS WELL ABOVE FREEZING. ANOTHER SHOT OR TWO OF COLDER AIR  
THEN COME IN FROM THE NW AND WILL DROP THE TEMPS SIGNIFICANTLY  
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE TEMPS WON'T MOVE MUCH AT ALL ON SAT  
OVER THE NW THANKS TO THE CLOUDS AND COLD ADVECTION, AND MAY MAX  
OUT IN THE MORNING THERE. IT WILL GET BREEZY WITH GUSTS CLOSE  
TO 30 SAT AFTN. THE W/NW WIND WILL ALSO GENERATE SCT/NMRS SHRA  
OFF THE LAKES, BUT THE TEMPS WILL BE MILD ENOUGH TO KEEP P-TYPE  
RAIN UNTIL NEAR SUNSET IN THE FAR NW. THE DOWNSLOPE WILL LIKELY  
HELP THE LOWER SUSQ TO GET INTO THE L60S.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
 
 
*A TASTE OF WINTER SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY. BLUSTERY WINDS, SNOW  
SHOWERS, REDUCED VISIBILITY WITH SOME ACCUMULATION IN THE HIGHER  
ELEVATIONS.  
 
A POTENT SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY WINDS  
AND SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. LIGHT SNOW  
ACCUMULATION (<1 INCH) IS EXPECTED IN THE NW SNOWBELT AND HIGHER  
ELEVATIONS OF THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU INTO THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS  
(ALONG/WEST OF US-219). WIND CHILLS IN THE LOW 30S NW TO LOW 40S  
SE ON SUNDAY WILL MAKE IT FEEL MORE LIKE EARLY DECEMBER THAN  
LATE OCTOBER. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.  
A SYSTEM PASSING TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA MAY BRING A FEW LIGHT  
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NORTHERN TIER ON TUESDAY; OTHERWISE  
ANTICIPATE DRY WX TO LAST THROUGH MIDWEEK.  
 
MORE DETAIL BELOW.  
 
850 MB TEMPS SUNDAY DOWN AROUND MINUS 8, THUS PLENTY COLD FOR  
SNOW.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF PA BRINGING MAINLY CLEAR  
SKIES. THE HIGH SLIDES EAST AWAY FROM THE REGION TODAY AS FLOW  
TURNS SW AND INCREASES AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. BY AFTERNOON,  
CIRRUS WILL BE SLIDING IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WITH SW WINDS  
PICKING UP TO AROUND 10 MPH, FOLLOWED BY LOWERING CEILINGS  
TONIGHT MAINLY OVER THE NW HALF DOWN INTO THE MVFR RANGE (IFR IN  
THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS). A CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN BEGINS IN THE  
LAURELS BY MID EVENING AND SPREADS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF  
CENTRAL PA MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. WINDS LOOK TO STAY UP AROUND  
10 MPH AND BREEZY TONIGHT AS LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASES TO AROUND  
40KTS AT 850MBS, PRODUCING MARGINAL LLWS CONDITIONS.  
   
OUTLOOK
 
 
 
SAT...AM LOW CIGS/LLWS LIKELY MAINLY NW HALF. AS A COLD FRONT  
PUSHES SE ACROSS THE STATE, SHOWERS AND CIG RESTRICTIONS WILL  
BE MOST WIDESPREAD OVER THE WEST WITH A LOW-TOPPED TSTM POSSIBLE  
THERE AS WELL. SHOWERS WILL BE MORE SCATTERED OVER THE CENTRAL  
MTNS AND SUSQ VALLEY. BRISK WEST WINDS TURN NW AT AROUND 15 MPH  
GUSTING TO 30 MPH.  
 
SAT NIGHT...BRISK NW FLOW OF 15 MPH GUSTING TO 30 MPH.  
WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE UPSLOPE  
REGIONS OF THE NORTH AND WEST.  
 
SUN...SHSNRA/CIG REDUCTIONS LIKELY N/W IN THE MORNING, WITH  
IMPROVING CONDITIONS IN THE AFTERNOON. BREEZY NW WIND.  
 
MON-TUE...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.  
 

 
   
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO  
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR  
SHORT TERM...DANGELO  
LONG TERM...MARTIN/STEINBUGL  
AVIATION...DEVOIR/RXR  
 
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