934
FXUS61 KCTP 080949
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
549 AM EDT FRI MAY 8 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* ADDED FOG N OF I-80 FOR THIS MORNING
* UPPED WINDS TODAY A BIT FROM GUIDANCE, MOST IN THE SE.
* EXPANDED FROST MENTIONS MON NIGHT
KEY MESSAGES
1) PERSISTENT AND DIGGING UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL CANADA AND THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL PROVIDE SEVERAL SHOTS OF RAIN ALL THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.
2) HIGH PRESSURE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH FROST/FREEZE POSSIBILITY
ESPECIALLY MON NIGHT.
3) MORE RAIN POSSIBLE MID-WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: PERSISTENT AND DIGGING UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL
CANADA AND THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL PROVIDE SEVERAL SHOTS OF
RAIN ALL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEKEND WILL BE
CONTROLLED BY THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH PARKED TO OUR NW. THE FLOW AT
OUR LATITUDE IS MORE ZONAL, BUT MULTIPLE SHORT WAVES WILL BE
ROTATING AROUND THE LOW AND AFFECT THE STREAM PASSING OVERHEAD.
WITHOUT A GOOD CONNECTION TO THE GULF MOISTURE, WE WON'T GET
ANY DEEP FEEDS OF MOISTURE. THUNDER IS POSSIBLE (20-30%) SAT,
MAINLY SAT NIGHT (W), AND AGAIN SUN AFTN-EVE (S). WITHOUT THAT
DEEP MOISTURE, IT SHOULD KEEP THE RISK OF FLOODING AT NIL.
TIMING OF FEATURES IN DAYS 1-2 ARE LIKELY GOOD, BUT SUNDAY WE
MAY BE A LITTLE LESS CONFIDENT IN TIMING OF BEST DYNAMICS. OUR
HIGHEST CONFIDENCE AND NEAR 100 POPS IS TONIGHT AND EARLY SAT.
THANKFULLY, THE CFROPA ON SUNDAY WILL GIVE THE SRN TIER/SE A
HIGH CHC (80-90%) FOR SHRA/TSRA, LIKELY IN THE LATTER PART OF
THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT INTO MON AM.
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KEY MESSAGE 2: HIGH PRESSURE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH FROST/FREEZE
POSSIBILITY ESPECIALLY MON NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATER SUN NIGHT AND THROUGHOUT THE DAY
ON MONDAY. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE A 24-36HR BREAK IN PRECIP WITH
TUES THE ALMOST-CERTAINLY DRY DAY. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO
MAKE IT CLEAR AND CALM ONCE AGAIN, AND TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO GET
PRETTY COLD MON NIGHT/TUES MORNING. THE NW MTNS COULD CLEAR OUT
SUN NIGHT/MON AM, LEADING TO SOME FROST THERE, BUT TIMING OF THE
EVENTUAL CLEARING AND DIMINISHING WIND IS NOT HIGHLY CERTAIN.
MON NIGHT/TUES AM IS MUCH MORE-CERTAIN FOR A WIDESPREAD FROST
AND EVEN A POSSIBLE FREEZE. EVEN MORE SO THAN CURRENT, AS THE
IMPENDING AIRMASS SHOULD BE EVEN COLDER/DRIER.
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KEY MESSAGE 3: MORE RAIN POSSIBLE MID-WEEK.
A STRONG SHORT WAVE WILL BE CRESTING AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN U.S. EARLY IN THE WEEK, AND MAKE A LINE FOR THE GREAT
LAKES. IT SHOULD PICK UP SOME MOISTURE THERE, AND MAY HAVE A
SLIGHT TAP OF GULF MOISTURE, TOO. THE COMPACT LOW IT FORMS WILL
LIKELY MAKE SHRA/TSRA FOR MID-WEEK (TUES NIGHT-WED NIGHT-ISH).
THE LOW MAY STRETCH INTO A NEG-TILTED TROUGH AND SOME
DEVELOPMENT COULD OCCUR ALONG THE EAST COAST. THAT COULD DELAY
THE EXIT OF PRECIP PER THE ECMWF. GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE,
MOVING THE WHOLE SYSTEM OUT QUICKLY. SO, LOW-MEDIUM POPS LINGER
INTO THURS TO SHOW THIS UNCERTAINTY.
AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
NOT A LOT OF CHANGE FROM EARLIER, BEEN SOME SMALL ADJUSTMENTS
OVERNIGHT. MAIN CHANGE WAS TO ADD IN FOG AND LOW CIGS FOR A
FEW HOURS AT IPT.
MORE INFORMATION BELOW.
WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE NORTHWEST EARLIER IN THE EVENING,
ALONG WITH A FEW GUSTY SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH.
FOR TODAY, WOULD NORMALLY EXPECT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SHOWERS,
BUT THE COLD AIR IS ABNORMALLY DEEP, ALL THE WAY UP TO 400 MB.
THUS WILL GO WITH THE EARLIER FCST THAT HIT THE SHOWERS A BIT
HARDER, ESPECIALLY AFTER HOW THE SHOWERS HELD TOGETHER INTO
THE EVENING HOURS.
AS I MENTIONED ON THE DAY SHIFT ON THURSDAY, DEEP MIXING WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN SOME GUSTY WINDS AGAIN BY LATE MORNING.
FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING, YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
WILL ROTATE AROUND THE DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER HUDSON BAY,
RESULTING IN MORE SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT INTO THE FIRST PART OF
SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALSO BE THE CASE LATER SUNDAY FOR MORE
SHOWERS.
AREAS THAT HAD RAIN EARLIER IN THE EVENING WILL HAVE THE
HIGHEST CHANCE FOR SOME FOG OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
SAT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN AND FOG.
SUN...VFR FAVORED EARLY, WITH RESTRICTIONS BECOMING MORE LIKELY
IN THE AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES SE. SHRA WITH
ISOLATED TSRA POSSIBLE AS COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH.
MON-TUE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ004>006-
010>012-017-018-024-033-037-041-042.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...DANGELO
KEY MESSAGES...DANGELO
DISCUSSION...DANGELO
AVIATION...MARTIN
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