287
FXUS61 KCTP 260742
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
342 AM EDT SAT SEP 26 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* INCREASED/DARKENED THE SKY COVER GRIDS ACROSS THE BOARD FOR
THE NEXT 60 HRS
* INCREASED WINDS AND GUSTS SLIGHTLY, ESPECIALLY OVER THE EAST
TODAY AND SUNDAY
KEY MESSAGES
1) NOR'EASTER WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS AND PERIODS OF RAIN FOR THE
FIRST WEEKEND OF FALL
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: NOR'EASTER WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS AND PERIODS OF
RAIN FOR THE FIRST WEEKEND OF FALL
BIG STORM WILL TUCK ITSELF BETWEEN LONG ISLAND AND NJ FOR THE
WEEKEND. IT WILL DEEPEN TO ABOUT 990MB DEPENDING ON YOUR
NUMERICAL MODEL/ENSEMBLE MEMBER OF CHOICE. AT LEAST ONE SOLUTION
HAS THE SFC LOW GETTING AS FAR W AS THE DELAWARE RIVER. MOST
KEEP THE WESTERN EXTENT OF IT'S WOBBLY TRACK AROUND THE JERSEY
SHORE.
THE WIND ALREADY MADE A GUST NEAR 30KT AT WELLSBORO (KN38)
AROUND MIDNIGHT AND VAD WIND PROFILE FROM KCCX HAS 50KT WINDS
NOT EVEN 4KFT ALOFT. KPHL HAS JUST GUSTED TO 40KT (WHICH IS WIND
ADVY LEVEL). WE MAY HAVE TO CONSIDER A WIND ADVY, BUT CURRENT
AND PREVIOUS THINKING IS THAT MOST GUSTS SHOULD STAY IN THE 30S
OVER OUR CWA. LANCASTER, LEBANON, SCHUYLKILL AND SULLIVAN
COUNTIES ARE THE MOST-POSSIBLE LOCATIONS TO GET A 40+KT GUST.
THE GRADIENT STAYS SIMILAR IN TIGHTNESS FROM MID-DAY TODAY
THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.
VERY LIGHT RAINFALL HAS ALREADY BEGUN AT PHL, AND WILL WORK BACK
TO THE WEST THROUGH THE DAY. EXPECT SOME DROPS TO HIT THE GROUND
BEFORE 10 AM, AND PERHAPS BEFORE 8 AM, IN LANCASTER CO. QPF IS
MINOR. THE HIGHEST RAINFALL WILL BE LATER TONIGHT AND THROUGH
THE DAY SUNDAY. STORM TOTAL NUMBERS RANGE FROM NEAR 1" IN NEW
HOLLAND AND DUSHORE TO LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH FROM STATE
COLLEGE WEST.
AS THE NOR'EASTER LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST LATER MONDAY,
CONDITIONS SHOULD STEADILY IMPROVE WITH TEMPERATURES POISED TO
REBOUND ABOVE THE HISTORICAL AVERAGE FOR THE END OF SEPTEMBER.
AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
PREVAILING VFR FLIGHT CATS THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH INCREASING
HIGH TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST. LOCALIZED
VIS RESTRICTIONS MAY OCCUR IN VALLEY FOG LATER TONIGHT, BUT THE
PROBABILITY OF PROLONGED RESTRICTIONS AT ANY TAF SITES IS TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST. LLWS IS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE
ZNY AIRSPACE TONIGHT AS A 45-60 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET MOVES INTO
THE AREA ON THE WEST-SIDE OF A POWERFUL NOR'EASTER. SURFACE
WINDS INCREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AFTER SUNRISE
AND GUSTS OF 25-30 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. THE
HIGHEST GUSTS WILL OCCUR AT SOUTHEASTERN SITES. LIGHT RAIN WILL
APPROACH MDT AND LNS DURING THE AFTERNOON, BUT THE REST OF THE
REGION SHOULD REMAIN DRY INTO THE THE FIRST PART OF SATURDAY
NIGHT.
A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL
PA THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY NIGHT, BUT THE STRONGEST WINDS MAY
REMAIN JUST ABOVE 2000 FEET FOR MOST LOCATIONS. BECAUSE OF THIS,
LLWS HAS BEEN KEPT OUT OF MOST OF THE TAFS. AFTER A BREAK IN THE
RAIN DURING THE EVENING, ANOTHER ROUND OF STEADY RAIN MOVES IN
FROM THE EAST AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES CLOSER TO THE REGION. THE
BIGGEST UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST IS JUST HOW FAR WEST THIS
RAIN MAKES IT DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. CEILINGS SHOULD
GRADUALLY DROP TO MVFR AT MDT AND LNS AS THE STEADIER RAIN MOVES
IN.
OUTLOOK...
MON-WED...IMPROVING CONDITIONS TRENDING VFR BY MIDWEEK.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...DANGELO
KEY MESSAGES...DANGELO
DISCUSSION...DANGELO
AVIATION...STEINBUGL/BAUCO
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