572
FXUS61 KCTP 120533
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
133 AM EDT SAT SEP 12 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* EXCESSIVE RAIN OUTLOOK AREAS ADJUSTED FOR TODAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A DRY START TO THE DAY, BUT MODERATE TO PERHAPS HEAVY RAIN
EXPECTED LATER TODAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: A DRY START TO THE DAY, BUT MODERATE TO PERHAPS
HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED LATER TODAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
EXPECT SHOWERS AND STORMS TO FORM LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO
SUNDAY MORNING, AS WARM ADVECTION BRINGS BACK THE MORE HUMID
AIRMASS.
THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS LATER SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AS STRONGER DYNAMICS AND COLD FRONT
WORK ON THE HUMID AIRMASS.
NOT A LOT COLD ADVECTION, ABNORMALLY WARM AND MOIST AIR
TAKE AIM AT THE GREAT LAKES AREA AGAIN ON TUESDAY, AS A
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS NORTHWARD FROM THE TN VLY.
ERO FOR TODAY ADJUSTED TO ONE AREA, AND SPC OUTLOOK FOR
SUNDAY TRIMMED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. COMPLEX FCST, AS BEEN
THE CASE THIS SUMMER.
STILL HOLDING OFF ON A FLOOD WATCH FOR NOW, GIVEN NOTHING
GOING ON YET ON RADAR, STILL TIME TO SEE HOW THINGS PLAY OUT
LATER THIS AFT.
MORE INFORMATION BELOW.
QUIDANCE DOES PUT NUMEROUS HEAVY BANDS OF RAIN OVER THE AREA.
FFG LOWER WEST AND NORTH, BUT HEAVIEST QPF COULD BE TO THE
EAST. ALSO MAYBE THINGS MORE AN ISSUE LATER SUNDAY, DEPENDING
ON WHERE THAT RAIN FALLS TODAY.
AGAIN, THE PROBLEM IS: WHERE? WITH UNCERTAINTY HIGH AS IT IS
AND FFG GETTING HIGHER SLOWLY, STILL HOLDING OFF.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
TONIGHT WILL START OFF CLEAR, WITH CLOUD COVER OVERSPREADING
THE AREA FROM SW TO NE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY AS A
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE WESTERN
TERMINALS OF JST AND AOO COULD SEE SOME LOW CEILINGS TONIGHT
WITH THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CONDITIONS OCCURRING AFTER
08Z. THERE IS SOME GUIDANCE THAT WOULD SUGGEST A BRIEF PERIOD
OF IFR CEILINGS AT THESE TWO SITES, BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW
FOR THAT TO BE THE PREVAILING CONDITION. FOG APPEARS UNLIKELY
TONIGHT WITH CLOUDS MOVING IN, SO THE MAIN CONCERNS WILL JUST BE
THE LOW CLOUDS IN THE WEST. ELSEWHERE SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH
THE NIGHT.
IT WILL BE DRY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE CONVECTION IS
LIKELY TO DEVELOP OVER THE ALLEGHENIES IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF THE MAIN FRONT. THE PRESENCE OF LIGHTNING IS UNCERTAIN
AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE LIMITED INSTABILITY THAT WILL BE
AVAILABLE AT THIS TIME. THE MAIN FRONT WILL BRING MORE
WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST, AND WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO IMPACT SITES STARTING IN
THE NORTHWEST AT BFD NEAR 00Z SUNDAY.
OUTLOOK...
SAT - MAINLY VFR EARLY, THEN MVFR AND RAIN DEVELOPING SATURDAY
NIGHT.
SUN...EARLY MVFR/IFR AND MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ACROSS THE STATE.
ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA IN THE AFTERNOON.
MON...PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS, WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR
AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA.
TUE...MAINLY VFR WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER NW PA.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...LAMBERT/DANGELO/MARTIN
KEY MESSAGES...LAMBERT/DANGELO/MARTIN
DISCUSSION...LAMBERT/DANGELO/MARTIN
AVIATION...BOWEN
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