820
FXUS61 KCTP 120604
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
204 AM EDT TUE AUG 12 2025
SYNOPSIS
* ABOVE AVERAGE HEAT WITH LITTLE TO NO RAINFALL THROUGH TUESDAY
* VERY HUMID WITH LOCALLY HEAVY T-STORM DOWNPOURS WEDNESDAY PM
* DRY SPELL WITH HOT TEMPERATURES FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
EXPECT INCREASING LOW CLOUD COVER AND ADD FOG OVERNIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING BASED ON A MODIFIED/EXTRAPOLATED PERSISTENCE
FROM LAST NIGHT, INCREASING LLVL MOISTURE VIA SOUTH/SOUTHEAST
FLOW, AND LATEST 11/12Z HIRES MODEL SIGNAL. MIN TEMPS WILL BE +5
TO +10 DEGREES HIGHER NIGHT OVER NIGHT WITH LOW TEMPS IN THE
60-70F RANGE.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL MIX OUT AFTER SUNRISE EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING, GIVING WAY TO A HOT AND HUMID AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS ARE
+5-10F ABOVE THE HISTORICAL AVERAGE FOR MID AUGUST RANGING FROM
LOWER 80S ON THE HIGHEST MTN RIDGETOPS TO THE LOW 90S IN THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN VALLEYS. KBFD COULD BREAK A DAILY RECORD
HIGH (87 IN 2005).
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE (TD IN THE 60-70F RANGE) COMBINED
WITH STRONG DAYTIME HEATING AND OROGRAPHIC FORCING SUGGESTS
ISOLATED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WHILE MOST OF THE AFTERNOON WILL BE DRY IN MOST PLACES, WE CAN'T
RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER OR POP-UP T-STORM ANYWHERE IN CENTRAL
PA. EVEN MORE MUGGY/STICKY TUESDAY NIGHT ADDING +2-5F ON TO
MONDAY NIGHT'S LOWS WITH MINIMUM TEMPS IN THE LOW 60S-70S.
MAX POPS ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PW AXIS (1.5-1.75") AND ELONGATED
FRONTAL ZONE PUSH INTO CPA FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.
WIDESPREAD SCATTERED CONVECTION IS LIKELY SUPPORTING LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINS AND ISOLATED RUNOFF ISSUES (MARGINAL EXCESSIVE RAIN
RISK/WPC ERO). THERE ARE MODEL INDICATIONS THAT THE FRONTAL
ZONE MAY/WILL BE SLOW TO EXIT SOUTHERN PA ON THURSDAY PM WHICH
COULD RESULT IN SOME LINGERING SHOWERS/STORMS. IN THIS SCENARIO,
THE DRYING/CLEARING TREND ARRIVING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WILL BE
DELAYED UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT -- SETTING UP A MORE COMFORTABLE
AND LESS HUMID END TO THE WEEK.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
LOWER HUMIDITY ON FRIDAY WILL BRING SOME MINOR TEMPORARY RELIEF,
BUT OVERALL THERE IS NO END TO THE RUN OF HOT/ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID AUGUST. ANOTHER DRY SPELL LOOKS
PROBABLE THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND, WITH AN
INCREASE IN RAINFALL POTENTIAL SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS FRONT SINKS
SOUTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR COVERS 95+ PERCENT OF THE STATE AT 06Z TUESDAY WITH
JUST SOME SCATTERED CIRRUS DRIFTING SE INTO THE REGION.
AN INCREASINGLY MOIST SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW
WILL AID IN DEVELOPMENT OF SOME LIGHT FOG/LOW STRATUS FOR 4-6
HOURS LATER THIS MORNING AND IN TO THE AFTERNOON.
THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR SUB-VFR RESTRICTIONS ARE AT KMDT/KLNS
(>60%). THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL MIX OUT WITH CONDITIONS
LIKELY IMPROVING TO VFR BY 15Z TUE. A COUPLE OF SHOWERS AND
MAYBE A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE TERRAIN
TUESDAY AFTERNOON, BUT WILL KEEP MENTIONS OF THESE OUT OF THE
TAFS UNTIL TIMING AND PLACEMENT BECOMES MORE CERTAIN.
OUTLOOK...
WED...RESTRICTIONS LIKELY WITH LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS AND
T-STORMS.
THU...LINGERING SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
AIRSPACE.
FRI...AM FOG POSSIBLE; OTHERWISE VFR.
SAT...VFR/NO SIG WX.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL/GARTNER
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL/GARTNER
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LAMBERT/STEINBUGL/BAUCO
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