716
FXUS61 KCTP 031103
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
703 AM EDT SAT OCT 3 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
KEY MESSAGES
1) FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS ARE PROBABLE MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY NIGHT
2) NOT MUCH RAIN EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST 10 DAYS OF OCTOBER
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS ARE PROBABLE MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY NIGHT
ASIDE FROM VARYING AMOUNTS OF MAINLY MID LEVEL CLOUDS WITH SOME
VIRGA ACROSS OUR SE ZONES SKIES WERE MAINLY CLEAR NEAR AND TO
THE NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR WITH SOME PATCHY VALLEY
FOG DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS WHERE AIR/WATERS DELTA
TS WERE 20 DEG F OR MORE.
NOTICEABLY COOLER/DRIER AIR ALREADY FILTERING INTO CPA WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S, TO LOW 50S IN THE SE. THIS LEAD TO A
REFRESHINGLY CRISP START TO THE 1ST WEEKEND OF OCTOBER WITH
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND LOW HUMIDITY.
THE COLDEST AIR OF THE EARLY AUTUMN SEASON IS POISED TO ARRIVE
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
LOCATIONS TO THE NORTHWEST OF I-81 HAVE THE HIGHEST ODDS FOR
FROST WITH MIN TEMPS AROUND THE FREEZING MARK IN THE NORTHERN
TIER.
-------------------------------------------------------------
KEY MESSAGE 2: NOT MUCH RAIN EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST 10 DAYS OF
OCTOBER
THE COLD FRONT THAT BROUGHT CLOUDS AND SOME PERIODS OF LIGHT
RAIN TO THE REGION ON FRIDAY HAS BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY EARLY
TODAY FROM THE INTERSTATE 81 CORRIDOR IN VIRGINIA TO THE DELMARVA
COAST.
VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF CLOUDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS SOUTHERN PA TODAY
WITH NOTHING MORE THAN A FEW LIGHT SPRINKLES POSSIBLE. ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE, A 5 TO 10 MPH NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND, FAIRLY LOW
HUMIDITY IN THE 30S AND 40S THIS AFTERNOON, EXCELLENT VISIBILITY
AND NEAR NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL KICK OFF THIS FIRST WEEKEND
ON OCTOBER ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PA.
A FAST-MOVING AND AMPLIFYING TROUGH MOVING OUR WAY FROM THE
NORTHERN U.S. AND SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA WILL BRING A PERIODS OF
INCREASED MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER FOR SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT
ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PA WITH A LIKELIHOOD OF
SOME LIGHT RAIN, THANKS TO PERIODS OF MODEST MESO-B UVVEL
ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF SEVERAL JETLETS
MOVING OVER, OR JUST TO THE NORTH OF PA.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF SEVERAL HUNDREDTHS,
UP TO ONE TENTH OF AN INCH WILL BE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER
SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY AND ADJACENT SOUTHEASTERN PA. ELSEWHERE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION OF THE STATE, THE
LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND NORTHERN MTNS, THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH
RAIN TO WET THE GROUND AT TIMES BUT ONLY MEASURE A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH.
OUTSIDE OF THIS NARROW WINDOW FOR LIGHT PRECIP, EXPECT A
PROLONGED DRY STRETCH TO LAST THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS A LARGE AREA
OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE PATTERN.
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VALLEY FOG LOOKS LIKE IT'S NOT SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO WARRANT
ANY PREVAILING CONCERNS THIS MORNING AND WILL BURN OFF AS THE
MORNING PROGRESSES. A THICKER LAYER OF CLOUDS INCHING WESTWARDS
MAY PROVIDE SOME MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AT IPT IN THE 12Z - 14Z
TIMEFRAME. HOWEVER, GUIDANCE HAS THIS DECK DISSIPATING BEFORE
ANY IMPACTS CAN BE MADE SO OPTED FOR A SCT DECK INSTEAD.
AS THE REST OF TODAY GOES, VFR CONDITIONS AND CLEAR SKIES ARE IN
STORES WITH WINDS OUT OF THE NORTH BECOMING MORE EASTERLY AS THE
DAY PROGRESSES. AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE FORMS OFF THE BOUNDARY
TO OUR SOUTH, A SURGE OF MOISTURE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST MAY
INCREASE CLOUD COVER TOWARDS THE END OF THIS TAF PERIOD,
POSSIBLY INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY OF CEILINGS.
OUTLOOK...
SUN...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEVELOPS ALONG THE RESIDUAL FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE MID-
ATLANTIC. -SHRA POSSIBLE, MORE SO ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
PA.
MON...DRY CONDITIONS WITH VFR PREVAILING. AM FOG POSSIBLE.
TUE-WED...DRY CONDITIONS WITH VFR PREVAILING. AM FOG/FROST
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU AND LAURELS.
CLIMATE
SEPTEMBER 2026 PRECIPITATION RANKINGS
IPT: 11TH WETTEST (6.84")
MDT: 26TH WETTEST (4.72")
AOO: 9TH WETTEST (5.58")
BFD: 10TH WETTEST (4.85")
JST: 3RD WETTEST (7.31") *SINCE 2000
STC: 6TH WETTEST (7.90")
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...LAMBERT/STEINBUGL
KEY MESSAGES...LAMBERT/STEINBUGL
DISCUSSION...LAMBERT/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LAMBRECH
CLIMATE...STEINBUGL
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