075
FXUS61 KCTP 282321
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
721 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME
KEY MESSAGES
1) A RAIN-FREE WEEKEND IS ON TAP
2) LATE SUMMER WARMTH IS STILL SLATED TO END THE MONTH OF AUGUST
AND START SEPTEMBER NEXT WEEK, WITH SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY
RAIN THREATS ALSO PRESENT
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SINK
SOUTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC THIS WEEKEND, A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME OUR DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE. THIS
WILL MEAN PARTLY-MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS AND MAINLY CLEAR NIGHTS
THROUGH SUNDAY. GIVEN OUR RECENT WET STRETCH OF WEATHER AND
ABUNDANT SOIL MOISTURE IN MANY AREAS, LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING FOG WILL BE COMMON, PARTICULARLY IN THE RIVER VALLEYS OF
NORTHWEST AND NORTH-CENTRAL PA.
TEMPERATURES/HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE SEASONABLE AND COMFORTABLE
THROUGH SATURDAY. ON SUNDAY, AS LOW-LEVEL WINDS BEGIN TO SWITCH
INTO A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION, AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AND
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL START TO CREEP UPWARD.
KEY MESSAGE 2: DURING NEXT WEEK, THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST
OUR VARIOUS ENSEMBLE PREDICTION SYSTEMS THAT AN EXPANSIVE
SUMMER-TIME RIDGE AXIS AT UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
FLEX ITS MUSCLE AND EXPAND NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN
STATES AND MIDDLE OF THE CONUS.
THERE ARE TWO PRIMARY CONSEQUENCES FOR THE SENSIBLE WEATHER
ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH AS A RESULT OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED
SCENARIO. FIRST, VERY WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID WEATHER WILL
SETTLE IN, EVEN AS WE FLIP THE CALENDAR TO SEPTEMBER. SECOND, AS
A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS OVER MUCH OF THE MID-ATLANTIC
AND NORTHEAST WITH EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES, AND OVERRUNS THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED WARM, STICKY AIR, EPISODIC SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. ALTHOUGH FINE DETAILS ARE NOT YET
APPARENT, THIS OVERALL PATTERN OFTEN FAVORS LOCALLY STRONG-
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS. AS WE DRAW CLOSER TO
NEXT WEEK, WE HOPE TO ADD MORE CLARITY WITH RESPECT TO THE
TIMING AND COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH WILL ALLOW
FOR CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT. PATCHY FOG IS
EXPECTED TO FORM ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL PA, BUT CONFIDENCE ON
RESTRICTIONS IS LOW AS DRIER AIR WILL ALSO BE WORKING ITS WAY IN
TONIGHT. HREF PROBS OF IFR VISIBILITY ARE LESS THAN 20 PERCENT
AT ALL TAF SITES, BUT BFD, UNV, AND IPT COULD STILL SEE BRIEF
PERIODS OF VISIBILITY LESS THAN 3 MILES. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW ONCE THE FOG BURNS OFF WITH MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.
OUTLOOK...
SUN-TUE...MAINLY VFR. ISOLD SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE.
WED...SCT SHRA/TSRA WITH BRIEF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...JUREWICZ
KEY MESSAGES...JUREWICZ
DISCUSSION...JUREWICZ
AVIATION...BAUCO
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