223
FXUS61 KCTP 031053
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
653 AM EDT SUN MAY 3 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* A FEW TO SEVERAL KT INCREASE IN SURFACE WINDS/GUSTS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON MONDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) WIDESPREAD FROST AND FREEZE EARLY TODAY.
2) TEMPERATURES TREND WARMER TODAY THROUGH THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK, AHEAD OF A SYSTEM THAT WILL BRING WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1:
WIDESPREAD FROST AND FREEZE EARLY TODAY.
SEVERAL AREAS OF THICK STRATOCU/LOW END ALTOCU CLOUDS EARLIER
IN THE OVERNIGHT SLOWED THE RADIATIONAL COOLING, BUT A CLEARING
TREND IS ACCELERATING DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS AND TEMPS ARE
DIPPING BY ABOUT 2 DEG F/HOUR SHORTLY AFTER THE ONSET OF THE
CLEARING.
THE CLEARING AND DECREASING NW BREEZE WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE 20S AND 30S, LEADING TO
WIDESPREAD FROST AND FREEZE CONCERNS.
FROST ADVISORIES AND FREEZE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH 9 AM SUNDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2:
TEMPERATURES START TO TREND WARMER TODAY THROUGH THE FIRST FEW
DAYS OF THE UPCOMING WEEK, AHEAD OF A SYSTEM THAT WILL BRING
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
AFTER THE NIP IN THE AIR TODAY WITH HIGHS STILL 5-10 DEG F BELOW
NORMAL, EXPECT TO SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES JUMP INTO THE 60S AND
70S ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS A MODERATELY GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW DEVELOPS OUT AHEAD OF THE NEXT, SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT.
A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL PA MAY EVEN PUSH THE 80
DEGREE MARK TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SCATTERED-NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL
IMPACT THE REGION (MAINLY THE NW 1/2 OF PA) ON TUESDAY,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHWEST PA.
THE HIGHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO BE ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT.
TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN TURN COOLER BEHIND THIS FRONT FOR LATE
IN THE UPCOMING WEEK, WITH POTENTIAL FROST/FREEZE CONCERNS
DEVELOPING.
AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VERY HIGH (> 90%) CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS
CONTINUING THROUGH 12Z MONDAY. LOW-LEVEL CLOUD DECK CONTINUES TO
GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION WITH THE BACK EDGE CLEARING
IPT, SOME POTENTIAL FOR 6000-8000FT AGL CEILINGS AT MDT/LNS
THROUGH 14Z SUNDAY; HOWEVER, THE BULK OF MODEL GUIDANCE OUTLINES
CLEARING CLOSER TO THE 12Z-13Z TIMEFRAME WHICH IS JIVING WELL
WITH RECENT SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS. HREF MODEL GUIDANCE OUTLINES
ANOTHER DAY WHERE A SCATTERED-TO-BROKEN LOW- LEVEL CLOUD DECK
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION; HOWEVER, EXPECT THIS TO BE LESS
EXPANSIVE BASED ON RECENT NBM/RAP MODEL GUIDANCE SO HAVE TRENDED
THE 12Z TAF SET IN THIS DIRECTION. WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN
AVIATION CONCERN TODAY WITH MAXIMUM WIND GUSTS GENERALLY BETWEEN
20-25 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE TRENDING DOWN LATE THIS
EVENING (AFTER 20Z SUNDAY) AND THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE TAF
PACKAGE. IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION MENTIONS TOWARDS THE END OF
THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE, MODEL GUIDANCE OUTLINES A FAIR AMOUNT OF
UNCERTAINTY BETWEEN 06-12Z MONDAY, THUS HAVE NO MENTIONS IN THE
12Z TAF CYCLE; HOWEVER, INCREASING CHANCES COME AFTER 12Z, WHICH
COULD BRING RESTRICTIONS TO CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA'S TERMINALS.
OUTLOOK...
MON...SCATTERED -SHRA DEVELOP ACROSS WRN PA, AND SOME THUNDER
IS POSSIBLE BY MONDAY PM.
TUE...SHRA/TSRA BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD FROM NW TO SE;
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
WED-THU...SHRA/TSRA CONTINUE; RESTRICTIONS LIKELY.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ004>006-
010>012-017>019-024>028-033-034-037-041-042-045-046.
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ035-036-
049>053-056>059-063>066.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...LAMBERT/BAUCO
KEY MESSAGES...LAMBERT/BAUCO
DISCUSSION...LAMBERT/BAUCO
AVIATION...BEATY
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