577
FXUS61 KCTP 080035
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
835 PM EDT FRI AUG 7 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* TARGETING AREAS OF LIKELY POPS FOR SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSRA TONIGHT
ASSOCIATED WITH A FEW COMPACT MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES AND THEIR
MESOSCALE UVVEL, MOVING NE ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF A
60-70KT UPPER LEVEL JET STRETCHED FROM LAKE ERIE TO THE ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) PERIODS OF SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND AGAIN
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING (MAINLY OVER THE SE HALF OF PA) WILL
BRING LOCALIZED THREAT FOR GUSTY WIND, AND RAIN HEAVY ENOUGH TO
INCREASE THE CHCS FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: PERIODS OF SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT
AND AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING (MAINLY OVER THE SE HALF
OF PA) WILL BRING LOCALIZED THREAT FOR GUSTY WIND, AND RAIN
HEAVY ENOUGH TO INCREASE THE CHCS FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.
THE KEY WEATHER PLAYER(S) FOR EARLY TONIGHT, HELPING TO FUEL
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSRA (WITH HIGHLY EFFICIENT RAINFALL) FROM
AREAS OF SB CAPE THAT'S STILL IN THE 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE, COME
IN THE FORM OF A FEW COMPACT MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES RIPPLING
ENE ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE 60+ KT JET CORE - EXTENDING
FROM LAKES ERIE/ONTARIO NE ACROSS THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY.
HIGHLY LOCALIZED MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN OF OVER 0.5 INCH IN
JUST 20-30 MINUTES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SE 1/3 OR SO OF
PA THROUGH 05Z SAT, THEN JUST A FEW BRIEF SHOWERS ROAMING THE
CWA WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT.
A GREATER AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
LESS IN THE WAY OF DENSE FOG THAN WE SAW THIS MORNING, BUT
THERE WILL STILL BE SOME AREAS OF 1/4-1/2SM VSBYS DURING THE
EARLY/MID MORNING HOURS SATURDAY.
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AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
FOR THE 00Z TAF PACKAGE, THE MAIN CHANGES WERE TO INCLUDE SOME
PROB30S FOR EARLY NIGHTTIME CONVECTION TONIGHT, THEN MID
AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING CONVECTION ON SATURDAY.
THIS RAINFALL WILL OCCUR AS A RESULT OF THE FAVORABLE AREA
(RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET MAX) FOR BROAD
MESOSCALE LIFT AND CONVECTION SLIDES ESE ACROSS PA
OVERNIGHT/SATURDAY.
ALSO TWEAKED THE TIMING AND DURATION OF LOWER CIGS/VSBYS IN
CONVECTION (AND FOG) LATER TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY.
HIGH PWATS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS MEANS THAT ANY OF THE STORMS MAY
BE CAPABLE OF BRIEF IFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS SHOULD THEY
CROSS PATHS WITH A TERMINAL.
OUTLOOK...
SAT...POCKETS OF FOG IN THE MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
T-STORMS WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND LOCALIZED RESTRICTIONS.
SUN...MOSTLY DRY, SOME POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS FAR
W PA. RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
MON-TUE...SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS. RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...LAMBERT
KEY MESSAGES...LAMBERT
DISCUSSION...LAMBERT
AVIATION...LAMBERT/LAMBRECH
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