676  
FXUS61 KCTP 061921  
AFDCTP  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA  
321 PM EDT SUN JUL 6 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
* DRY WEATHER PREVAILS TODAY AND TONIGHT AS HUMIDITY BEGINS TO  
INCREASE.  
* THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHANTAL WILL MOVE ACROSS  
SOUTHEAST PA AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO NORTHWEST PA, BRINGING  
A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY &  
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.  
* A STALLED FRONT DRAPED ALONG THE MASON-DIXON LINE WILL KEEP  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST EACH DAY THROUGH THE  
END OF THE WEEK.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/
 
 
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND CLOUD-FREE SKIES EXTEND ALONG THE  
ALLEGHENIES INTO THE ENDLESS MOUNTAINS REGION OF NORTHEAST PA  
THIS AFTERNOON AS CENTRAL PA SITS IN THE SUBSIDENCE ZONE  
BETWEEN AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO THE WEST AND TROPICAL  
DEPRESSION CHANTAL MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH NORTH CAROLINE.  
 
BENEATH THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTING EAST ACROSS  
THE COMMONWEALTH TODAY, MID LEVEL TEMPS WILL WARM TO AROUND  
+10C, LIKELY PREVENTING ANY CONVECTION, EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS ONE  
OR 2 ISOLATED CELLS OVER THE RIDGETOPS AND NEAR THE SE BOUNDARY  
OF THE LAKE ERIE BREEZE. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE 85 TO 90  
DEGREE RANGE AREAWIDE TODAY.  
 
OVERNIGHT, MOIST SOUTHEAST FLOW AHEAD OF THE CIRCULATION  
ASSOCIATED WITH CHANTAL WILL BRING LOW CLOUDS AND RIDGETOP FOG  
TO THE REGION AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAIRLY MILD - RANGING FROM  
THE MID 60S IN THE NORTHWEST TO MID 70S IN THE SOUTHEAST. DRY  
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL MOST OF THE NIGHT, ALTHOUGH A FEW  
LIGHT SHOWERS COULD MAKE IT INTO SOUTHEAST PA BY DAYBREAK AS  
CHANTAL'S REMNANTS EDGE EVER CLOSER.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
 
 
POPS INCREASE INTO MONDAY AS A RELATIVELY WEAK NORTHERN STREAM  
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ARRIVES AND TAPS INTO SOME TROPICAL MOISTURE  
OFF THE EAST COAST. WITH MORE MOISTURE IN PLACE, HEAT INDEX  
VALUES MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL CLIMB INTO THE 90S FOR MOST VALLEY  
LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE NORTHERN TIER.  
 
SPC HAS THE NW 20-25 PERCENT OF THE CWA IN A MRGL RISK FOR SVR  
MONDAY, ALONG WITH A MRGL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAIN. THESE  
CATEGORIES LOOK REASONABLE AT THIS POINT BASED ON INSTABILITY  
(MU CAPE NEARING 2000 J/KG ACROSS THE NW MTNS), DEEP LAYER SHEAR  
AND PWAT VALUES OF 1.75+ INCHES ACROSS THE NW MTNS (AND  
SLIGHTLY OVER 2 INCHES ACROSS THE FAR SE THANKS TO MOISTURE FROM  
THE REMNANTS OF TS CHANTAL BRUSHING THAT PART OF THE STATE).  
 
THE LATEST CAMS PAINT THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL STAYING EAST OF  
CENTRAL PA, THOUGH A VERY MOIST AIRMASS MOVING OVER SOME  
PARTICULARLY VULNERABLE AREAS (LANCASTER, DAUPHIN, AND LEBANON  
COUNTIES) REQUIRES AT LEAST SOME SPECIAL ATTENTION. IN THE BEST  
CASE SCENARIO, CHANTAL TRACKS EAST OF THE AREA AND MOST OF  
CENTRAL PA IS IN A SUBSIDENCE ZONE, WHICH WOULD MEAN  
INSIGNIFICANT RAINFALL. IF CHANTAL TRACKS A BIT MORE WEST, A  
CORRIDOR OF HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY  
COULD REQUIRE AN UPGRADE TO A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL  
AND POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING.  
 
TEMPS WILL FALL A FEW DEGREES INTO TUE AS SHOWERS AND STORMS  
STICK AROUND. THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY PUSH  
THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COUNTIES OF THE CWA DURING  
THE DAY TUESDAY. SPC HAS THE SE 40 PERCENT OF THE CWA IN A MRGL  
RISK FOR SVR TUESDAY, ALONG WITH A MRGL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAIN.  
BY TUESDAY, CHANTAL WILL BE ALL BUT DISSIPATED, BUT THE MOISTURE  
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS THE I-95  
CORRIDOR. ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT FIRE ALONG THE STATIONARY  
BOUNDARY WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND  
ISOLATED INSTANCES OF FLOODING.  
 
THERE REMAINS A LOW, BUT NON ZERO CHANCE OF HEAT INDEX VALUES  
APPROACHING THE CENTURY MARK ON TUESDAY IN SOUTHEAST PA. THE  
REALIZATION OF THESE HOT/HUMID CONDITIONS WILL BE CONTINGENT ON  
THE COLD FRONT HANGING UP NORTHWEST OF THE I-81 CORRIDOR AND  
CONVECTION HOLDING OFF IN THE AFTERNOON. IF THE COLD FRONT MOVES  
FARTHER SOUTHEAST AND/OR STORMS DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON,  
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN LOW ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE ANY HEAT  
ADVISORY CONSIDERATION. AS IT STANDS RIGHT NOW, THE RISK OF HEAT  
INDEX VALUES OF 100F OR GREATER IS LESS THAN 15%.  
 
IT WILL BE ANOTHER MILD NIGHT TUESDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WHERE  
MUGGY DEWPOINTS AND CLOUD CLOVER WILL KEEP LOWS IN THE 70S.  
FARTHER NORTHWEST, HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN WILL SUPPORT DRIER  
AIR AND SUBSIDENCE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES AND LOWS IN  
THE 50S TO LOW 60S.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
 
 
POPS DROP INTO THE 20-40 PCT RANGE ON WED AS HEIGHTS BRIEFLY  
RISE OVER THE AREA, BUT MOST MODEL GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS ENOUGH  
INSTABILITY FOR AT LEAST A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS,  
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE CWA WHERE SFC BASED  
CAPE STILL PEAKS BETWEEN 1500-2500 J/KG WED AND THU AFTERNOON.  
THE SPARSER COVERAGE OF STORMS SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY FLOOD THREAT  
ON WEDNESDAY, BUT THE RICHEST MOISTURE WILL NOT BE TOO FAR SOUTH  
OF THE REGION.  
 
POPS RISE AGAIN THURSDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE  
TROUGH. THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND IS MORE  
UNCERTAIN, WITH SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTING A BREAK IN THE  
UNSETTLED PATTERN, AND OTHERS SUGGESTING ACTIVE WEATHER  
CONTINUES. AN ACTIVE PATTERN WOULD FAVOR CONTINUE HEAT/HUMIDITY  
WHILE A QUIETER PATTERN COULD SUPPORT THE INTRUSION OF LOWER  
DEWPOINTS AND MORE REFRESHING CONDITIONS.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
VFR PREVAILS TODAY WITH NOTHING THAN SCATTERED FAIR WEATHER  
CUMULUS CLOUDS. WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST WILL  
OCCASIONALLY GUST TO 15KTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER  
CONTINUING.  
 
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CREEPING UP THE EAST COAST WILL LIKELY BRING  
A DECK OF MVFR/IFR CLOUDS INTO THE SUSQ VALLEY TERMINALS OF  
IPT/LNS/MDT AFTER 08-10Z TONIGHT. RESTRICTIONS MAY MAKE IT AS  
FAR WEST AS UNV AND AOO, BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ENOUGH TO  
MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS THERE. IFR IS MOST LIKELY AT MDT AND LNS  
IN THE 10-12Z WINDOW WITH IMPROVEMENT AFTER DAYBREAK.  
 
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY AFFECT MDT/LNS IN THE  
MORNING AS TROPICAL MOISTURE MOVES OVERHEAD. THEN, SCATTERED  
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL PA ALONG A COLD  
FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
 
TUE...RESTRICTIONS IN MVFR CLOUD (NORTHWEST) AND SCATTERED  
SHOWERS/STORMS (SOUTHEAST).  
 
WED...BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS AND RESTRICTIONS IN SOUTHERN PA.  
 
THU-FRI...POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY  
AFTN/EVE.  
 

 
   
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
SYNOPSIS...BANGHOFF  
NEAR TERM...BANGHOFF  
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT/BANGHOFF  
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/BANGHOFF  
AVIATION...BANGHOFF/RXR  
 
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