258
FXUS61 KCTP 161038
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
638 AM EDT THU APR 16 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS ON POTENTIAL CONVECTION TODAY AND SATURDAY
KEY MESSAGES
1) MRGL SEVERE THREAT ACROSS THE NW THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
2) DRY, WINDY CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING MAY
LEAD TO A INCREASED RISK OF RAPID WILDFIRE SPREAD.
3) SUMMER-LIKE HEAT AND HUMIDITY INTO TODAY, ALTHOUGH FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.
4) COLD FRONT BRINGS PRECIPITATION AND A BREAK FROM SUMMER HEAT
LATE THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: MRGL SEVERE THREAT ACROSS THE NW THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.
A MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE MIDWEST THIS
AFTERNOON TOWARD LAKE ERIE BY THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH THIS WILL
RESULT IN HEIGHT FALLS LOCALLY, THE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL WEAKEN WITH TIME. ALL THINGS
CONSIDERED, SUBTLE LARGE SCALE ASCENT COLLOCATED WITH 250-750
J/KG OF CAPE AND LITTLE TO NO CIN SHOULD RESULT IN A LINE OF
CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING APPROACHING THE
LAUREL HIGHLANDS UP THROUGH THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS. ONE OF THE
LIMITING FACTORS FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL IS MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES
THAT ARE NOT VERY STEEP. NONETHELESS, DCAPE OF 400-500 J/KG AND
STORM MOTIONS 35-40 KTS WITH LITTLE CIN WARRANTS AT LEAST A
MRGL RISK FOR SEVERE WIND GUSTS.
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KEY MESSAGE 2: DRY, WINDY CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING MAY LEAD TO A INCREASED RISK OF RAPID WILDFIRE SPREAD.
DEWPOINTS WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER 50S OR EVEN UPPER 40S OVER
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA, ESPECIALLY IN THE LAURELS AND
SOUTH-CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. AT THE SAME TIME, TEMPS AGAIN WILL RISE
INTO THE 80S. THE RESULTING RHS WILL GET INTO THE 20S OVER THE
S-C MTNS. GRADIENT WINDS WILL BE 10-15 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER
GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON THERE, TOO. WHILE THE FINE FUELS AND
WIND SPEEDS ARE NOT CRITICAL ENOUGH TO WARRANT A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH/RED FLAG WARNING, THE WIND AND LOW RH MAY WARRANT A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT.
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KEY MESSAGE 3: SUMMER-LIKE HEAT AND HUMIDITY INTO TODAY,
ALTHOUGH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.
VERY WARM CONDITIONS AGAIN FOR TODAY, WITH MORNING LOWS STARTING
OUT AT OR NEAR RECORDS. A MILD START PLUS INCREASING SUNSHINE
WILL RESULT IN HIGHS AGAIN PUSHING THROUGH THE 80S ACROSS MUCH
OF CENTRAL PA. THE TROUGH COMING THROUGH TONIGHT AND A WEAK COLD
FRONT ON FRIDAY WILL KNOCK TEMPS DOWN 5-10 DEGREES BETWEEN
TODAY AND TOMORROW, BUT THEY WILL STILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL. A
FEW DEGREES WARMER SATURDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
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KEY MESSAGE 4: COLD FRONT BRINGS PRECIPITATION AND A BREAK FROM
SUMMER HEAT LATE THIS WEEKEND.
THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL COME ALONG AND AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT SAT - SAT NIGHT. SPC HAS INTRODUCED A SLGT
SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR EASTERN OH AND WESTERN PA SAT, WITH
THE MRGL RISK AREA CLIPPING OUR WESTERN ZONES. A SIGNIFICANT
COLD FRONT USHERS IN MUCH, MUCH COLDER AIR BEGINNING SAT NIGHT.
IN FACT, THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME SNOW SHOWERS ON SUNDAY.
MONDAY NIGHT LIKELY HOLDS A FREEZE OR FROST FOR MOST OF THE
CWA. NEW FCST TAKES EVERYONE DOWN BELOW 32F, AND AS COLD AS 20
IN THE NORTHERN TIER.
TEMPS REBOUND TUE AFTERNOON AND REMAIN MILD INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHWEST PA MAY MAKE A CLOSE APPROACH
TO BFD THIS MORNING, BUT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR
MOST OF CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. PATCHY
FOG WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE PERIODS OF IFR/LIFR RESTRICTIONS AT
BFD AND IPT BEFORE DISSIPATING BY 14Z. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
THEN EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE DAY UNDER VARYING AMOUNTS OF
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE WEST-SOUTHWEST AT
10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS POSSIBLE. SIMILAR TO THE
PAST FEW DAYS, EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER WESTERN PA. BFD, JST, UNV,
AND IPT WILL ONCE AGAIN BE MOST LIKELY TO SEE ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
THERE IS A STRONGER SIGNAL IN MODEL GUIDANCE FOR LOW CLOUDS TO
DEVELOP THURSDAY NIGHT OVER NORTHERN AND WESTERN PA THAN THERE
HAS BEEN THE PAST FEW NIGHTS. CEILINGS LIKELY DROP TO MVFR AT
BFD AND JST AFTER 03Z WITH FURTHER REDUCTION TO IFR EXPECTED.
AOO, UNV, AND IPT MAY ALSO SEE MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOP.
OUTLOOK...
FRI...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EARLY, THEN IMPROVING TO VFR IN THE
AFTERNOON.
SAT-SUN...RESTRICTIONS IN SHRA POSSIBLE, TRANSITION TO SHSN
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING.
MON...LINGERING SHSN POSSIBLE EARLY ACROSS N PA WITH
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE; OTHERWISE, DRY CONDITIONS WITH VFR
PREVAILING.
CLIMATE
MDT AND IPT BOTH HAD HIGH TEMPS OF 87F ON WED APR 15, WHICH TIES
THE RECORD AT MDT (SET IN 1941) AND BREAKS THE RECORD OF 86 AT
IPT (SET IN 1994). IPT ALSO BROKE THE APR 15 RECORD FOR WARMEST
DAILY LOW TEMP, WHERE 58F BROKE THE RECORD OF 57F SET IN 2023.
RECORD HIGH DAILY MINS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY AND TOMORROW.
HERE'S A LOOK AT THE RECORDS AS THEY STAND RIGHT NOW, WITH A *
INDICATING THAT THE FORECAST IS EQUAL TO OR GREATER THAN THE
RECORD.
RECORD HIGH DAILY MAX / DAILY MIN...
FOR HARRISBURG:
APRIL 16: 89 (2002) / 63* (1941)
APRIL 17: 91 (2002) / 60* (2002)
FOR WILLIAMSPORT:
APRIL 16: 90 (2002) / 55* (2023)
APRIL 17: 91 (2002) / 58* (1896)
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...COLBERT
KEY MESSAGES...DANGELO/COLBERT
DISCUSSION...DANGELO/COLBERT
AVIATION...BAUCO
CLIMATE...COLBERT
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