143
FXUS61 KCTP 241801
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
201 PM EDT SAT OCT 24 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
KEY MESSAGES
1) DRY FORECAST HOLDS FOR THE NEXT 6-7 DAYS
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: DRY FORECAST HOLDS FOR THE NEXT 6-7 DAYS
WE DON'T SEE ANY NEW EVIDENCE IN OUR SUITE OF MODEL GUIDANCE TO
DEVIATE AWAY FROM OUR EXISTING RAIN-FREE FORECAST.
A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM AT THE SURFACE, ALONG WITH A RIDGE
AXIS ALOFT, WILL KEEP THE COMMONWEALTH RAIN-FREE THROUGH THE
EARLY PART OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. WE DO EXPECT A COLD FRONT
TO DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY, BUT WITH ONLY SHALLOW MOISTURE LEVELS TO WORK WITH,
JUST SOME PATCHY CLOUDINESS AND NO RAINFALL ARE THE
EXPECTATIONS.
AFTER A BRIEF SHOT OF SEASONABLY COOL AIR TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY, A WARMING TREND IS LIKELY LATER IN THE WEEK, ALONG
WITH CONTINUED RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS. AT LEAST SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE COMMONWEALTH SHOULD POP BACK INTO THE 70S AS WE APPROACH
NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
FEW CHANGES AT ALL TO THE GOING PACKAGE. WE DID NOTE SOME
RETURN OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE AROUND 9H INTO THE SOUTHERN TIER
TONIGHT, AND COULD MAKE SCT-BKN CLOUDS (MVFR/FL020-030) ALONG
AND S OF THE MD BORDER. BUT, THE CHCS ARE EVEN LOWER THAT THEY
(IF THEY FORM) WOULD IMPACT ANY OF OUR TERMINALS. WE DID MENTION
MVFR- LEVEL SCT CLOUDS (NOT CIGS) AT JST AND AOO.
THE ONLY RISKS FOR IFR WOULD BE FOG/LOW CLOUDS IN THE USUAL
PLACES (IPT AND BFD) OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DUE TO
RADIATIONAL/RIVER VALLEY FOG. IPT IS MORE LIKELY THAN BFD TO
HAVE IFR CLOUDS/FOG (60% CHC FOR A FEW HOURS LATE TONIGHT), BUT
IFR CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT AT BFD (30% CHC FOR A BRIEF
PERIOD).
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THINGS STABLE UNTIL MONDAY. THAT IS
WHEN A COLD FRONT DROPS IN FROM THE NW AND USHERS IN A NEW, JUST
AS DRY, AIRMASS. LITTLE FANFARE (NO PRECIP, LOW CLOUDS, WIND,
NOR VISBY ISSUES) IS EXPECTED AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE CWA. MANY
TIMES, DRY FRONTS ARE WINDY FRONTS. BUT, IT DOESN'T LOOK TO BE
THE CASE THIS TIME. WE GO RIGHT BACK TO NICE FLYING CONDITIONS
FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS AFTER THE FRONT.
MON-THU...VFR PREVAILING CONDITIONS.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...JUREWICZ
KEY MESSAGES...JUREWICZ
DISCUSSION...JUREWICZ
AVIATION...DANGELO
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