799
FXUS61 KCTP 241908
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
308 PM EDT SUN MAR 24 2019
SYNOPSIS
AN UPPER LOW OVER THE MISS VALLEY WILL WEAKEN AS IT PUSHES EAST
AND MERGES WITH A SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
PENNSYLVANIA MONDAY. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED DRY
AIR MASS WILL SETTLE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA DURING MIDWEEK. A
COLD FRONT IS THEN LIKELY TO PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION
NEXT WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
CLOUDY SKIES CONTINUE TODAY AS WARM ADVECTION OVERSPREADS THE
REGION AHEAD OF WEAKENING UPPER LOW OVER THE MISS VALLEY.
SURFACE HIGH WILL DRIFT SOUTH OF PA, ALLOWING A RETURN WSW FLOW
OF MILDER, HIGHER- PWAT AIR INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER, LARGE
SCALE FORCING WITH APPROACHING SYSTEM REMAINS WEST OF THE STATE.
MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND PRECIPITATION LOWER.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS PROGGED
TO PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. MOISTURE RETURN
AHEAD OF FRONT IS NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE OVERALL, BUT BEST ACROSS
SOUTHWEST PA. HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND OF LOWERING PRECIPITATION.
THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE ACROSS THE LAURELS, WHERE OROGRAPHIC
ENHANCEMENT IS EXPECTED. WHILE THE AREA IS DRIER, THERE IS STILL
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH THOUGH ANY
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINIMAL AT BEST.
REMNANTS OF A MISSISSIPPI VALLEY UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW ARE PROGGED TO TRACK SOUTH OF PA ON MONDAY. LATEST
GUIDANCE INDICATES THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE STATE COULD BE
CLIPPED BY A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING. SURFACE RIDGING AND MUCH DRIER AIR MASS OVER UPSTATE NY
SHOULD RESULT IN MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS NORTHERN PA MONDAY,
WHILE OVERCAST CONDITIONS LOOK LIKELY IN THE SOUTH.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
MED RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A HIGH CONFIDENCE OF
FAIR WEATHER DURING MIDWEEK, AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS
SOUTHEAST OVER THE AREA. BOTH THE 00Z ECENS AND NAEFS SHOW AN
ANOMALOUS UPPER RIDGE BUILDING ALONG THE EAST COAST LATE IN THE
WEEK, WITH A SLOW-MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED TO OUR
NORTHWEST ACROSS THE GRT LKS. HAVE INTRODUCED THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHWEST PA LATE IN THE WEEK TO ACCOUNT FOR
MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH REGARD TO HOW CLOSE THIS QUASI-STATIONARY
FRONT GETS TO US. HOWEVER, ALL GUIDANCE SEEMS TO SUGGEST THE
BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS COMES NEXT WEEKEND, WHEN EAST COAST RIDGE
BREAKS DOWN AND COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE STATE. ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES APPEAR VERY LIKELY FRI-SAT IN THE DEEP
SOUTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN EAST COAST RIDGE AND APPROACHING FRONT.
AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF THE EVENING. THE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL
SPREAD LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA EARLY
MONDAY. ACROSS THE NORTH, A RAIN/SNOW MIX IS ANTICIPATED, WITH
MAINLY RAIN IN THE SOUTH.
MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AT BFD AND JST FOR A FEW HOURS TOMORROW
MORNING.
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL PRESS SOUTHWARD DURING MONDAY,BRINGING
PRECIPITATION TO THE SOUTH BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK
MON...AM RAIN/SNOW. RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE, MAINLY NORTHERN AND
WESTERN MOUNTAINS.
TUE-WED...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
THU...VFR, BUT WITH SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE NORTHWEST.
FIRE WEATHER
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BELOW 30% ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL PA. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHTER THAN ON SATURDAY, THOUGH SOME GUSTS FROM 15 TO 20MPH ARE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. FINE FUEL MOISTURE (PER COORDINATION
WITH FIRE WX PARTNERS) IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 10% THROUGH
THE WEEKEND, AND THEREFORE NO FIRE WX HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD
AVIATION...CERU/GARTNER
FIRE WEATHER...
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page