561
FXUS61 KCTP 141750
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
150 PM EDT THU MAY 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* GOING FORECAST VERY MUCH ON TRACK
* KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON NBM GUIDANCE MAX TEMPS (MAY BE TOO
WARM) FOR NEXT WEEK
KEY MESSAGES
1) PATCHY --SHRA CONTINUE OVER THE W EARLY TONIGHT AND OVER THE
N/NE LONGER INTO THE NIGHT
2) SIGNIFICANT SUMMERLIKE TEMPERATURE SURGE RAMPS THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK; HIGHEST TEMPERATURES OF THE YEAR SO FAR
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: PATCHY --SHRA CONTINUE OVER THE W EARLY TONIGHT
AND OVER THE N/NE LONGER INTO THE NIGHT
18Z RADAR LOOKS PRETTY WET WITH A STRIPE OF -RA SLIDING THROUGH
UNDER THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH. DRYING IS SEEN UPSTREAM,
BUT THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ALOFT WILL KEEP SCT -SHRA LONG
INTO THE NIGHT OVER THE NERN TOWNS. THE CLOUDS OVER THE
SOUTHCENTRAL-SERN TOWNS SHOULD DEVELOP BIGGER BREAKS IN THEM,
BUT THE W AND ESP THE NE WILL STAY PRETTY CLOUDY THROUGH MID-
MORNING FRI. MINS TONIGHT WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH THE WIND
AND CLOUDS KEEPING US FROM GETTING TOO COLD (40S, MAINLY).
------------------------------------------------------------
KEY MESSAGE 2: SIGNIFICANT SUMMERLIKE TEMPERATURE SURGE RAMPS
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK; HIGHEST TEMPERATURES OF THE YEAR SO FAR
AFTER A COOL START TO MAY, A SIGNIFICANT SUMMERLIKE WARMUP IS ON
THE HORIZON FOR THIS WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
LARGE SCALE PATTERN SHIFT SHOULD DELIVER A RATHER SUDDEN WARM
SURGE WITH MAX TEMPS PROJECTED TO REACH WELL INTO THE 80S AND
EVEN LOWER 90S. DAILY RECORD HIGHS MAY BE CHALLENGED BASED ON
THE CURRENT FCST MONDAY AND TUESDAY. MAX TEMPS WERE ADJUSTED
LOWER BY A FEW DEGREES DUE TO A KNOWN SYSTEMATIC BIAS CORRECTION
ISSUE IDENTIFIED IN THE NBM DURING THE SHOULDER SEASONS.
THERE MAY BE SOME POTENTIAL HEAT RISK CONSIDERATIONS LOOMING
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK, MAINLY FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS STEMS
NOT ONLY WITH THE FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED
HUMIDITY, BUT ALSO FROM AN ACCLIMATION PERSPECTIVE. THE SUMMER
LIKE HEAT ISN'T EXPECTED TO LAST LONG WITH THE NEXT FRONTAL
SYSTEM EXPECTED MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK, BRINGING COOLER TEMPS AND
PRECIP.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
STRATUS WITH MINIMAL BREAKS COVERS THE CWA. HOWEVER, THERE IS
SET OF DIURNAL CUMULUS UNDER A HIGHER DECK IN THE SE THIRD OF
THE CWA. MDT & LNS SHOULD (80%) HANG OUT IN VFR FOR MUCH OF THE
NIGHT, DIPPING INTO MVFR CIG FOR A FEW HOURS AT MOST. THERE IS
A BETTER CHANCE FOR PROLONGED MVFR CIG AND --SHRA FOR IPT. BUT,
THEY HAVE JUST A 10% CHC OF GOING INTO IFR. THE WRN SITES (BFD
AND JST) WILL GET SOCKED IN WITH IFR CIGS FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT.
BFD IS GETTING AN EARLY START AND JST MAY FOLLOW SHORTLY AS --RA
IS ALMOST TO THE TERMINAL AT 1730Z. EXPECT UNV AND AOO TO BE IN
THE MIDDLE, LITERALLY, WITH THE EXPECTATION (80%) THAT THEY
WILL STAY ABOVE IFR, BUT MAY STILL HAVE SOME --SHRA PASS THRU,
ESP BEFORE 05Z. THE SHRA SLIDE EAST AS THE DEEP UPPER LOW/TROUGH
SLIDES EAST. THE MAJORITY OF TERMINALS WILL GO VFR FOR THE
DAYTIME, BUT MAY TAKE UNTIL LATE MORNING TO DO SO. THE W WIND
WILL REMAIN 8-12KT (OR BETTER) SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS INTO THE
UPPER TEENS AND 20S, BUT WILL VEER A LITTLE TO THE NW OVERNIGHT.
VFR WILL RULE FOR THE REST OF FRIDAY WITH A SLOWING WIND SPEED
AS THE GRADIENT STARTS TO RELAX (FROM W-E THRU THE DAY). CALM
AIR AND A MAINLY CLEAR SKY IS IN STORE FOR FRI NIGHT AS A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD (CENTERED MORE TO OUR S).
OUTLOOK...
SAT-SAT NIGHT...VFR IS LIKELY MUCH OF THE TIME, ALTHOUGH BRIEF
RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BFD AND LESS LIKELY AT
JST/UNV/AOO/IPT DUE TO ISOLD/SCT SHRA/TSRA.
SUN...SCT SHRA/TSRA NW, VFR ELSEWHERE.
MON...LOW CIGS/ISOLD --SHRA POSS, MAINLY S.
TUE...SCT SHRA W. OTHERWISE, NO SIG WX.
CLIMATE
DAILY RECORD MAX TEMPERATURE FOR MAY 18-19:
5/18 5/19
HARRISBURG 94 IN 1962 95 IN 1962
WILLIAMSPORT 95 IN 1962 96 IN 1996
ALTOONA 91 IN 1962/1996/2017 92 IN 1996
BRADFORD 85 IN 1962 85 IN 1962
STATE COLLEGE 92 IN 1962 92 IN 1934/1996
PLEASE NOTE: STATE COLLEGE CO-OPERATIVE OBSERVATIONS ARE A
24-HOUR SUMMARY TAKEN ONCE PER DAY AROUND 7 AM (7AM-7AM).
THEREFORE, A MAX TEMP OCCURRING IN THE DAYLIGHT OR LATE IN THE
DAY IS USUALLY REPORTED IN THE _NEXT_ DAY'S OBSERVATION. ALSO,
THE SAME MIN TEMP MAY BE REPORTED ON TWO CONSECUTIVE DAYS IF THE
MIN OCCURS AT OBSERVATION TIME.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...DANGELO
KEY MESSAGES...STEINBUGL/BOWEN/DANGELO
DISCUSSION...STEINBUGL/BOWEN/DANGELO
AVIATION...DANGELO
CLIMATE...STEINBUGL/DANGELO
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