745
FXUS61 KCTP 130105
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
805 PM EST MON JAN 12 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* THIS SPACE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK
KEY MESSAGES
1) TURNING WARMER TUESDAY AND LASTING INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.
2) LOW PRESSURE TRACKING JUST TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF
THE AREA TO BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO MUCH OF THE AREA LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY.
3) MORE COLD AND WIND FOR THURSDAY. COMPLEX STORM. THE
POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP ALONG A NEARLY
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE MID- ATLANTIC REGION
COAST AND PERHAPS IMPACT PENNSYLVANIA DURING THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEK, WITH SNOW OR A WINTRY MIX. THERE IS STILL A SIGNIFICANT
RANGE OF OUTCOMES, INCLUDING THAT ONLY A WEAK STORM WILL STORM
WILL FORM WITH LIGHTER PRECIPITATION. STAY TUNED FOR LATER
FORECASTS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
CLOUDS ARE DRIFTING TO THE EAST, LEAVING MOST OF THE AREA CLEAR
AT 01Z. SOME HIGH/MID CLOUDS APPROACHING FROM THE W WILL DO
LITTLE TO STOP THE TEMPS FROM FALLING TO GOING MINS. BFD WILL
PROBABLY ONLY DIP 2-3F MORE, WITH 5-10F DROPOFFS IN THE SE. THE
CONTINUING WIND WILL HELP KEEP THEM WELL (6-12F) ABOVE NORMALS
TONIGHT, GIVING TEMPS A RUNNING START AT FORECAST MAXES JUST AS
MUCH ABOVE NORMAL.
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH AND LOW PRESSURE TRACKING TO OUR
NORTH WILL RESULT IN A SOUTHWEST FLOW OF MILDER AIR TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND ABOVE NORMAL INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY, WITH
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
A BIT OF LIGHT SNOW COULD BRUSH THE NORTHERN TIER OF PA BY
EARLY WEDNESDAY, BUT LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NORTHWEST OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WILL
BRING SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO CENTRAL PA. MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION WOULD BE WEST OF OUR AREA PRIOR TO 18Z WED.
SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST LATER IN
THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA. A NORTHWEST FLOW OF COLDER AIR AND GUSTY WINDS FORM
BEHIND THE LOW, THUS 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND WEST, BEFORE THE SNOW ENDS LATER ON
THURSDAY.
FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY, RAIN IS EXPECTED
LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. NORMALLY THE
PRECIPITATION ENDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST BEFORE THE COLD AIR CAN
WORK IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, BUT IN THIS CASE A LIGHT DUSTING
OF SNOW COULD FALL ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
THURSDAY WILL FEATURE THE POTENTIAL FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW,
UPSLOPE SNOW, AND GUSTY WINDS AGAIN. SFC RIDGING EXPECTED
FOR FRIDAY, BUT SOME MODEL SPREAD TO THE DETAILS ON HOW
THE COASTAL FORMS. FOR NOW FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY.
ALSO A COMPLEX SYSTEM FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. OVERALL
PATTERN FAVORS A FAST JET STREAM WITH SHOTS OF ABNORMALLY
COLD AIR EVERY SEVERAL DAYS, VS. A LARGE STORM. THE JET
STREAM HAS BEEN STRONG LATELY, GIVEN THE ABNORMALLY WARM AIR
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER EASTERN CANADA. BEEN LARGELY IN THIS PATTERN SINCE
NOVEMBER.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
PERSISTENT PATCH OF LOW CLOUDS ARE CURRENTLY BEING OBSERVED
ACROSS NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA; HOWEVER, MODERATE CONFIDENCE MVFR
CEILINGS SCATTER OUT AT BFD BETWEEN 00Z-01Z TUE BASED ON CURRENT
SATELLITE TRENDS AND RECENT GLAMP MODEL GUIDANCE TRENDING
TOWARDS VFR CONDITIONS CLOSER TO 00Z TUE. WIDESPREAD VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE WITH VERY HIGH (~80-90%)
CONFIDENCE. MAIN CONCERN THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE
PRESENCE OF LLWS AT BFD IN THE NEAR-TERM WITH LLWS THRESHOLDS
VERY CLOSE TO BEING MET, WITH RECENT NBM MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATING THIS THREAT THROUGH ~04Z TUE. LLWS CONCERNS RETURN TO
THE WESTERN HIGHLANDS LATER IN THE 00Z TAF PERIOD, GENERALLY
AFTER 18Z TUE, WITH MODERATE (50-60%) CONFIDENCE IN MAGNITUDE OF
LLWS AND MORE UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO TIMING. LOW-TO-MID
LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE TOWARDS THE END OF THE 00Z TAF PACKAGE
WITH HIGH (~70-80%) CONFIDENCE WITH FURTHER DETERIORATION
PROGGED BY A COMBINATION OF NBM/HREF GUIDANCE AFTER 00Z WED.
OUTLOOK...
WED...LIGHT RAIN/SNOW GRADUALLY OVERSPREADING THE AREA, WITH
DETERIORATING CIGS AND VSBYS.
THU...RESTRICTIONS PERSISTING ACROSS N/W PA IN OCCASIONAL
-SHSN; WINDY.
FRI...MARGINAL IMPROVEMENT, NOT AS WINDY.
FRI NIGHT-SAT...LIGHT SNOW AND RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS
PRIMARILY WESTERN PA.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...DANGELO
KEY MESSAGES...LAMBERT/DANGELO/MARTIN
DISCUSSION...LAMBERT/DANGELO/MARTIN
AVIATION...NPB
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