617
FXUS61 KCTP 300735
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
335 AM EDT THU APR 30 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* FROST ADVISORY ISSUED FOR THE WESTERN ALLEGHENIES LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING
KEY MESSAGES
1) COOL AND UNSETTLED PATTERN TO END APRIL AND START MAY WITH
SHOWER CHANCES AND FROST/FREEZE RISK THROUGH THE WEEKEND
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: COOL AND UNSETTLED PATTERN TO END APRIL AND
START MAY WITH SHOWER CHANCES AND FROST/FREEZE RISK THROUGH THE
WEEKEND
SEVERAL DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL
CLOSED LOW CENTERED OVER ONTARIO AND QUEBEC WILL HELP TO
REINFORCE BROADLY DEEP TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. THROUGH
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP CONDITIONS COOL AND
UNSETTLED AT TIMES AS MULTIPLE FRONTAL SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH. IN
ADDITION TO SHOWER CHANCES, THE FRONTS WILL BRING REINFORCING
SURGES OF COOL AIR, KEEPING TEMPERATURES NEAR TO BELOW SEASONAL
AVERAGES. CHILLY NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL ALSO LEAD TO FROST AND
FREEZE CONCERNS THURSDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT, PARTICULARLY NOW THAT
THE GROWING SEASON IS NOW ACTIVE ACROSS ALL CPA ZONES.
FROST ADVISORY ISSUED FOR TONIGHT IS A SOMEWHAT LOWER CONFIDENCE
HEADLINE GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR CLOUDS/BREEZE ASSOCIATED WITH A
(LESS THAN IDEAL) THE BROAD CYCLONIC MEAN FLOW. WE TOOK A
MEASURED APPROACH AND WILL ALLOW DAYSHIFT TO EXPAND THE ADVISORY
EASTWARD AS NEEDED. A SIMILAR SCENARIO UNFOLDS FRIDAY NIGHT
WITH RENEWED POTENTIAL FOR CLOUDS/BREEZE TO LIMIT EXTENT OF
FROST. FROST/FREEZE POTENTIAL REMAINS HIGHEST SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE NOSING IN FROM THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY.
BOUTS OF SHOWERS APPEAR MOST LIKELY DURING THE AFTERNOON TODAY
AND FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY A GENERAL DRYING TREND THROUGH THE FIRST
WEEKEND OF MAY. NBM AND AI MODELS ARE SIGNALING SEVERAL
OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
TWO AREAS OF SHOWERS WILL BRING BRIEF REDUCTIONS TO CIGS AND
VSBYS EARLY TODAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE
SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS AND A MID/UPPER
LEVEL COOL POOL APPROACHES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. KIPT AND KMDT
WILL BE THE TARGETS FOR A FEW SHOWERS VERY EARLY THIS MORNING,
WHILE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND KBFD WILL BE BROADER
PERIOD FROM THE MID MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY.
AS THE TRANSITION TO THE DEEPENING, COOL NW FLOW OCCURS TODAY,
WE'LL SEE THE TYPICAL LOWER CONDITIONS (IFR TO LOW END MVFR) AT
KBFD AND KJST WHILE MAINLY MVFR CIGS AND VFR VSBYS WILL BE
FOUND AT KAOO, KUNV AND KIPT. IFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS AT KMDT
AND KLNS RESPECTIVELY AT 06Z WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGH MVFR
THIS MORNING AND REACH VFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 15-17Z TODAY AS
DOWNSLOPING NW LOW-LEVEL FLOW OF DRIER AIR LIFTS THE CLOUD
BASES.
WINDS WILL BECOME MODERATELY GUSTY (HIGH TEENS TO LOW 20S (KTS))
LATE THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
EAST TOWN THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LOW. RAIN
CHANCES RETURN FOR THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON HOURS FRIDAY.
OUTLOOK...
FRI-SAT...MAINLY VFR WITH BRIEF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN
SHOWERS.
SUN...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE NORTHWEST IN -RA AND POSSIBLY SOME
-SN.
MON... MODELS HINTING AT ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE WAVE TO OUR WEST,
PRECIP MAY LEAD TO RESTRICTIONS, PARTICULARLY IN THE WEST.
CLIMATE
*DAILY RECORD RAINFALL OF 1.18 INCHES AT KJST YESTERDAY 4/29
BREAKING THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF 1.13 INCHES SET BACK IN 1964
*DESPITE A COOL END TO THE MONTH, APRIL 2026 WILL END AS ONE OF
THE WARMEST ON RECORD
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
PAZ004>006-010-011-017-024-033.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...STEINBUGL
KEY MESSAGES...STEINBUGL
DISCUSSION...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LAMBERT/BOWEN
CLIMATE...STEINBUGL
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