209
FXUS61 KPHI 141024
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
624 AM EDT TUE APR 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.
KEY MESSAGES
1. DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING NORTH AND WEST
OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR, WITH AN EVEN HIGHER RISK FROM I-80 ON
NORTH.
2. POTENTIALLY RECORD BREAKING WARMTH IS POSSIBLE THIS
WEEK WITH VERY WARM AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUING
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1....SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS,
MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR, ARE ANTICIPATED TO MOVE
IN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WHILE THE SEVERE THREAT IS ZERO FOR
MOST OF THE AREA, A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS OVER THE NORTHERN
LEHIGH VALLEY, POCONOS, AND FAR NORTHERN NJ ARE POSSIBLE AND COULD
PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING FOR LATER
TODAY AND THIS EVENING. AN MCS OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH EASTWARD THROUGH TODAY AND POTENTIALLY GRAZE OUR AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE MCS WILL
LIKELY RE-DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON OVER SOUTHERN NY AND NORTH-
CENTRAL PA. THE QUESTION REMAINS HOW MUCH INSTABILITY BUILDS WITH
DAYTIME HEATING AS THE DAY GOES ON. SHEAR, WHILE PRESENT, IS NOT
OVERWHELMING EITHER. HOWEVER, STILL EXPECTING SOME THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING AND POTENTIALLY CLUSTERING AS THEY MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN
HALF OF OUR REGION. MAIN CONCERN IS DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AS THE LINE
OR SMALL CLUSTERS OF STORMS MOVE THROUGH.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM THE
I-95 AND I-195 CORRIDOR ON NORTH AND WEST. SPC HAS EXPANDED THE
MARGINAL RISK (1/5) TO INCLUDE THESE AREAS. A SLIGHT RISK WAS EVEN
ADDED NORTH OF I-80. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGIN TO MOVE IN BY
THE MID AFTERNOON IN THE POCONOS, MOVING TOWARD I-95 FOR THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. CONVECTION SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT CROSSES THE
DELAWARE RIVER, WITH A MORE STABLE AIRMASS PRESENT OVER NEW JERSEY.
AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF I-95 COULD STILL SEE SOME SHOWERS, BUT NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN TERMS OF SEVERE WEATHER.
KEY MESSAGE 2...POTENTIALLY RECORD BREAKING WARMTH IS POSSIBLE
THIS WEEK WITH VERY WARM AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
CONTINUING THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
WE CONTINUE ON TRACK WITH INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN EARLY SEASON
HEAT WITH A SIGNIFICANT WARM UP EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
RECORD BREAKING TEMPERATURES.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE WARM
FRONT WELL NORTH OF THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION, CONTINUED WARMTH IS
EXPECTED. VERY WARM AIR ALOFT COUPLED WITH WARM AIR AT SURFACE
LEVELS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO BE AS MUCH AS 15 TO 30 DEGREES
ABOVE AVERAGE THIS WEEK. AS OF NOW, FORECAST HIGHS ARE IN THE
LOW TO MID 80S ON TUESDAY WITH MID/UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S ON BOTH
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, THOUGH THURSDAY MAY BE A TOUCH COOLER
DUE TO MORE CLOUD COVER. SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW REGARDING
POTENTIAL RECORD BREAKING TEMPERATURES.
AT THIS POINT, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH AT LEAST 90
FOR MUCH URBAN CORRIDOR ON WEDNESDAY AND A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER
ON THURSDAY. THIS WOULD BE FIRST 90 DEGREE DAY OF THE YEAR AND
FIRST SINCE EARLY SEPTEMBER. AS IS TYPICAL IN SPRING THOUGH,
TEMPERATURES ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY
COOLER DUE TO THE COLDER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND DIURNAL
SEA BREEZE. WHILE A WEAK SURFACE FRONT PASSES THROUGH LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING, TEMPERATURES WILL STAY WELL
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE MID
70S TO MID 80S.
NOT ONLY WILL IT BE VERY WARM OVER THE COURSE OF THE WEEK, BUT IT
WILL ALSO REMAIN MAINLY DRY. THIS IS OF ELEVATED CONCERN FOR ONGOING
DROUGHT/ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA, WHICH WILL
LIKELY ONLY GET WORSE AFTER THIS WEEK. A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL
PASS BY TO THE NORTH THROUGH THURSDAY, BUT OTHER THAN A STRAY SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM EACH AFTERNOON NORTH OF THE I-78 CORRIDOR, NO
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED. FLOW WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST, WHICH IS MORE FAVORABLE IN TERMS OF MOISTURE, WHICH
LIKELY WILL HINDER THE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THIS WEEK. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE LIGHT AS WELL, AS ANOTHER LIMITING FACTOR. SO, EVEN
THOUGH IT WILL BE WARM AND DRY, FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE
MINIMAL.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
TODAY...PRIMARILY VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
POTENTIALLY DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON. ADDED VCTS TO THE TAFS
BETWEEN 20-21Z TO 23-00Z FOR KRDG/KABE AND KEPT THE VCSH AT ALL
OTHER SITES AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE MORE
CONCENTRATED OVER THE NORTHERN LEHIGH VALLEY AND NORTHERN NJ.
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME STORMS MAKING IT TO THE I-95 CORRIDOR
THOUGH BETWEEN 22Z-01Z. WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING
AROUND 5-10 KT, INCREASING TO AROUND 10-15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON
WITH GUSTS 20-25 KT. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
TONIGHT...PRIMARILY VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE (15-20%) OF A SHOWER THROUGH
03Z AT KACY/KMIV. ADDED SOME PATCHY FOG TO THE KABE/KRDG TAF
WHICH COULD REDUCE VISIBILITIES DOWN TO IFR/MVFR. HIGHER CHANCE
FOR FOG DEPENDING ON IF RAIN IMPACTS ANY TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 KT OR LESS. LOW
CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...PREVAILING VFR. A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS (~20-40%) IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS EACH DAY FOR THE LEHIGH VALLEY AND I-95 TERMINALS.
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR. A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE, OTHERWISE NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER.
MARINE
TRANQUIL CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THE WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH NO
HEADLINES IN PLACE. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO
20 KT AND SEAS 2 TO 4 FEET.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES EXPECTED.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 20 KT WITH SEAS AROUND 2-4
FEET. A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE, OTHERWISE FAIR WEATHER.
CLIMATE
WARM TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL ARE EXPECTED FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEK. WEDNESDAY IS CURRENTLY PROJECTED TO BE THE WARMEST DAY,
THOUGH TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY COULD SEE SOME RECORDS BROKEN
DEPENDING ON THE SITE. BELOW ARE RECORD HIGHS AND RECORD HIGH
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR APRIL 14TH THROUGH APRIL 16TH.
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
APRIL 14
SITE RECORD/YEAR
ALLENTOWN (ABE) 88/2023
AC AIRPORT (ACY) 86/1945
AC MARINA (55N) 90/1941
GEORGETOWN (GED) 87/1977
MOUNT POCONO (MPO) 84/2023
PHILADELPHIA (PHL) 91/1941
READING (RDG) 90/1941
TRENTON (TTN) 89/1941
WILMINGTON (ILG) 87/1941
RECORD WARMEST LOW TEMPERATURES
APRIL 14
SITE RECORD/YEAR
ALLENTOWN (ABE) 61/2014
AC AIRPORT (ACY) 63/2023
AC MARINA (55N) 60/2023
GEORGETOWN (GED) 65/2019
MOUNT POCONO (MPO) 56/2014
PHILADELPHIA (PHL) 62/2014
READING (RDG) 64/2014
TRENTON (TTN) 62/2014
WILMINGTON (ILG) 60/2014
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
APRIL 15
SITE RECORD/YEAR
ALLENTOWN (ABE) 86/1941 & 1994
AC AIRPORT (ACY) 90/1967
AC MARINA (55N) 86/1941
GEORGETOWN (GED) 86/1960 & 2024
MOUNT POCONO (MPO) 82/1941
PHILADELPHIA (PHL) 88/1941
READING (RDG) 86/1941 & 1994
TRENTON (TTN) 87/1994
WILMINGTON (ILG) 86/1896
RECORD WARMEST LOW TEMPERATURES
APRIL 15
SITE RECORD/YEAR
ALLENTOWN (ABE) 59/2002
AC AIRPORT (ACY) 61/2002
AC MARINA (55N) 59/2006
GEORGETOWN (GED) 65/2002
MOUNT POCONO (MPO) 58/2002
PHILADELPHIA (PHL) 64/2002
READING (RDG) 64/1938
TRENTON (TTN) 63/2002
WILMINGTON (ILG) 62/2002
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
APRIL 16
SITE RECORD/YEAR
ALLENTOWN (ABE) 90/2012
AC AIRPORT (ACY) 89/2002
AC MARINA (55N) 88/2002
GEORGETOWN (GED) 89/2002
MOUNT POCONO (MPO) 85/2002
PHILADELPHIA (PHL) 90/2002
READING (RDG) 90/2012
TRENTON (TTN) 91/2012
WILMINGTON (ILG) 92/1896
RECORD WARMEST LOW TEMPERATURES
APRIL 16
SITE RECORD/YEAR
ALLENTOWN (ABE) 60/1941
AC AIRPORT (ACY) 62/2002
AC MARINA (55N) 64/2002
GEORGETOWN (GED) 65/2012
MOUNT POCONO (MPO) 56/2002
PHILADELPHIA (PHL) 62/2002
READING (RDG) 65/1941
TRENTON (TTN) 62/2002
WILMINGTON (ILG) 63/2002
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DEAL/DESILVA/HOEFLICH/MJL
AVIATION...DEAL/DESILVA/HOEFLICH
MARINE...DEAL/DESILVA/HOEFLICH
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