041
FXUS61 KPHI 171436
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1036 AM EDT SUN MAY 17 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR OUR OCEAN ZONES WAS EXPIRED AT 10
AM.
KEY MESSAGES
1. A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND INTO
THIS WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE UPWARD OF 10 TO
20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, WITH LOW TO MID 90S EXPECTED FOR MANY
AREAS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
2. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, ALONG WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE TODAY
AND INTO THIS WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE UPWARD
OF 10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, WITH LOW TO MID 90S EXPECTED
FOR MANY AREAS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE EASTERN US
THIS WEEK, BRINGING A PERIOD OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL AND SUMMER-
LIKE TEMPERATURES. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL ANCHOR AND STRENGTHEN OFF THE COAST OF THE
MID ATLANTIC. THIS WILL RESULT IN A VERY WARM SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FOR SEVERAL DAYS BRINGING THE WARMING TREND.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90
DEGREES INLAND AS SOUTHWEST WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES. ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST, IT WILL GENERALLY BE A GOOD 5-10 DEGREES COOLER
WITH HIGHS NEAR 80 DEGREES BEFORE THE SEA BREEZE STARTS PUSHING
INLAND. THE DAY SHOULD FEATURE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH
SCATTERED CLOUDS AROUND. NOT AS BREEZY AS SATURDAY. THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY, BUT WE CAN'T COMPLETELY
RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM, AS SOME OF THE CAM
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THIS. THE POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED
THOUGH DUE TO WEAK FORCING AND RELATIVELY DRY PROFILES. AND IF
ANYTHING DOES OCCUR THOUGH IT SHOULD BE LIMITED IN AREAL
COVERAGE AND NOT LONG LASTING.
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO CLIMB INTO MONDAY FOR INLAND AREAS
WITH MID TO UPPER 80S FOR MANY AREAS, AND LOW 90S OVER PORTIONS
OF EASTERN PA, INLAND SOUTHERN NJ, AND DELMARVA. HOWEVER THE
FLOW BE MORE OUT OF THE SOUTH TO EVEN SOUTHEAST, SO THEY'LL BE
MORE OF COOLING INFLUENCE NEAR THE COAST AND EVEN EXTENDING A
BIT FARTHER INLAND COMPARED TO SUNDAY. THIS WILL KEEP THESE
AREAS NEAR THE COAST MAINLY IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S.
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL GET
INTO THE LOW-MID 90S ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION, OUTSIDE OF THE
IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THIS IS
INCREASING THE CHANCE THAT AREAS WITHIN THE I-95 URBAN CORRIDOR
WILL FLIRT WITH HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. WITH DIURNAL MIXING
LIKELY KEEPING HIGHER DEW POINTS AT BAY DURING THE PEAK OF THE
HEAT IN THE AFTERNOON, THIS IS STILL NOT A HIGH CONFIDENCE
SETUP. HOWEVER, WITH WARMER AIR TEMPERATURES, IT WILL NOT TAKE
AS MUCH MOISTURE TO PUSH HEAT INDICIES A FEW DEGREES HIGHER AND
EXCEED THE EARLY SEASON CRITERIA IN THE URBAN AREAS.
THE HEAT FORECAST REMAINS A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN FOR WEDNESDAY,
AS A FASTER PROGRESSION OF AN APPROACHING FRONT MAY BRING MORE
CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS, AND CAP TEMPS AND HEAT
INDICES A BIT LOWER. REGARDLESS, THIS WILL STILL BE A PERIOD OF
ABNORMALLY WARM CONDITIONS AND GETTING THE AREA CLOSE TO RECORD
HIGH TEMPERATURE TERRITORY MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY THIS WEEK.
THE HEAT LOOKS TO BREAK BY THURSDAY FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE LATE WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE CLOSER TO
NORMAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A COLD FRONT WILL BRING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, ALONG
WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL BY THE END OF NEXT
WEEK.
THE NEXT FEW DAYS SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY OTHER THAN THE LIMITED
SHOWER/STORM POTENTIAL FOR TODAY DISCUSSED ABOVE.
AS MENTIONED EARLIER, A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AND BRING AN END TO THE STRETCH OF ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BY THURSDAY. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY
ACCOMPANY THAT FRONT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR AN EARLIER ARRIVAL
DURING THE DAYTIME ON WEDNESDAY MAY INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME STRONGER STORMS, BUT IT REMAINS TOO EARLY FOR ANY DETAILS
ON SPECIFIC IMPACTS OR HAZARDS. THE FRONT LOOKS TO LINGER NEARBY
OR JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA LATE THIS WEEK AND THIS COULD KEEP
SOME SHOWERS AROUND AT LEAST INTO THURSDAY BUT PERHAPS EVEN
FRIDAY AND BEYOND AS THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE
TRENDING TOWARDS BEING MORE UNSETTLED.
AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
TODAY...VFR. WINDS BECOMING WEST-NORTHWEST AROUND 12Z THROUGH
15-16Z, THEN SHIFTING WEST TO SOUTHWEST AROUND 5-10 KT. 10-20%
CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR STORM AT ALL TERMINALS AFTER 18Z. HIGH
CONFIDENCE.
TONIGHT...VFR. SOUTHWEST WINDS DIMINISHING TO 5 KTS OR LESS TO
LOCALLY CALM. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...VFR PREVAILING WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER EXPECTED.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...SUB-VFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RAIN SHOWERS MAY
CONTINUE INTO THE DAY THURSDAY.
MARINE
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR OUR OCEAN ZONES WAS ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE AT 10 AM. THE COASTAL JET WILL INCREASE AGAIN INTO THE
AFTERNOON, BUT SOUTHERLY WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE LESS THAN
SATURDAY. 10-20% CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR STORM NEARSHORE,
OTHERWISE FAIR WEATHER THROUGH TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...NO MARINE HAZARDS EXPECTED. FAIR WEATHER.
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE AND COULD
REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS BY LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE WATERS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD
FRONT.
THURSDAY...CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BE BACK BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS BY THIS TIME BUT SHOWERS MAY LINGER.
RIP CURRENTS...
TODAY, SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 15 MPH, BUT WILL TURN
SOUTH IN THE AFTERNOON BEHIND SEA BREEZES. THERE WILL ALSO BE
BREAKING WAVES OF 2 TO 3 FEET WITH A 9 TO 10 SECOND PERIOD
SWELL. AS A RESULT, THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF DANGEROUS AND LIFE THREATENING RIP CURRENTS AT THE JERSEY
SHORE AND AT DELAWARE BEACHES.
ON MONDAY, WINDS WILL BE MORE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15
MPH WITH BREAKING WAVES OF 1 TO 2 FEET WITH A 7 TO 8 SECOND
PERIOD SWELL. AS A RESULT, THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF DANGEROUS AND LIFE THREATENING RIP CURRENTS AT
THE JERSEY SHORE AND A LOW RISK AT DELAWARE BEACHES.
IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT WHILE SURFACE TEMPERATURES INLAND WILL
BE IN THE UPPER 80S TODAY AND IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S ON
MONDAY, TEMPERATURES ALONG THE COASTS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 70S
TO NEAR 80 DUE TO OCEAN TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S. THESE COLD
WATER TEMPERATURES CAN QUICKLY CAUSE HYPOTHERMIA AND PHYSICAL
INCAPACITATION TO ANYONE SUDDENLY IMMERSED IN THE WATER.
FOR SPECIFIC BEACH FORECASTS, VISIT WEATHER.GOV/BEACH/PHI
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AKL/FITZSIMMONS/STAARMANN
AVIATION...AKL/STAARMANN
MARINE...AKL/FITZSIMMONS/STAARMANN
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