653
FXUS61 KPHI 051022
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
622 AM EDT TUE MAY 5 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION FOR 12Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
1. THERE IS A LIMITED RISK FOR FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY.
2. A FEW SYSTEMS BRING SHOWERS TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM COULD BRING SOME SHOWERS ON SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...THERE IS A LIMITED RISK FOR FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
TODAY.
THE OVERALL BREEZY PATTERN THAT WE'VE BEEN IN WILL PERSIST FOR
TODAY. SW WINDS WILL START TO RAMP UP AGAIN BY LATE MORNING DUE
TO DIURNAL MIXING AND BY AFTERNOON GENERALLY EXPECT WINDS 15 TO
20 GUSTING 25 TO 35 MPH. THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY TODAY DURING
PEAK HEATING WILL DROP INTO THE 25-35 PERCENT RANGE FOR MANY
AREAS. FUEL MOISTURE WILL ALSO DECREASE WITH SIGNIFICANT
HEATING AND A GUSTY BREEZE, ALTHOUGH SURFACE DEW POINTS SHOULD
BE HIGHER THAN MONDAY. FULL GREEN-UP HAS OCCURRED IN MUCH OF OUR
AREA HOWEVER BASED ON COLLABORATION WITH OUR STATE FIRE PARTNERS
WE'VE ISSUED AN SPS FOR FIRE WEATHER FOR MOST OF SOUTHERN NJ AND
DE (EXCLUDING COASTAL STRIP).
KEY MESSAGE 2...A FEW SYSTEMS BRING SHOWERS TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY. ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM COULD BRING SOME SHOWERS ON
SATURDAY.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WELL TO THE NORTH IN CANADA WILL DRAG A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND MOVE TOWARDS OUR REGION
ON TUESDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS BEGIN TO MOVE IN EARLY WEDNESDAY BUT
THE BULK OF THE RAIN COMES THROUGH MIDDAY ON WEDNESDAY. THE
FRONT TRIES TO MOVE THROUGH BUT WILL EVENTUALLY STALL OUT NEAR
OR JUST EAST OF OUR AREA. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND LIFT TOWARDS THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST ALONG THE STALLED FRONT. THE TREND WITH THE SECONDARY AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE HAS BEEN A BIT FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST, AND
THINK THERE IS A DECENT CHANCE AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF THE I-95
CORRIDOR STAY DRY. STILL HAVE POPS OF 50-70% SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE I-95 CORRIDOR, BUT POPS WERE LOWERED TO SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE
(20-40%) NORTH AND WEST OF I-95. RAINFALL HAS TRENDED DOWN A
BIT WHICH ISN'T A SURPRISE WITH THE FURTHER EAST TRACK OF THE
SECOND SYSTEM. RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR MOST LIKELY END UP NEAR A
HALF INCH, WITH AT MOST AN INCH ANTICIPATED. NBM PROBABILITIES
FOR OVER 1 INCH HAVE DECLINED PRETTY STARKLY COMPARED TO LAST
NIGHT. MOST AREAS ARE NOW LESS THAN 10%, WITH SOME ISOLATED
POCKETS OF UP TO 25% OVER FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES IN DELMARVA AND
SOUTHEASTERN NJ AND THEN THE POCONOS.
WHILE SOME GUIDANCE STILL ATTEMPTED TO BRING SOME CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS TO THE REGION, THE CONSENSUS IS THAT WE WILL SEE
LOW INSTABILITY AND LIMITED TO ZERO SEVERE/FLOODING THREAT.
OVERALL, THIS WILL BE MORE BENEFICIAL RAIN FOR THE AREA WITH AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE.
FOR SATURDAY, A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION,
POTENTIALLY PRODUCING SOME SHOWERS. THIS APPEARS TO BE NOTHING
MORE THAN A POTENTIAL WEEKEND SPOILER WITH NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS...
TODAY...VFR. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 10-20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
25-30 KNOTS, WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OCCURRING DURING THE
AFTERNOON. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
TUESDAY NIGHT...PRIMARILY VFR. SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE NORTH AND WEST
OF THE I-95 TERMINALS. GUSTY SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING THROUGH THE EVENING WITH ANOTHER PERIOD OF LLWS
EXPECTED BEGINNING BY 03Z. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITH SHOWERS,
ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY MIDDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON AND THEN A SECOND
ROUND ON THURSDAY DAYTIME. KRDG/KABE MAY NOT SEE ANY SHOWERS ON
THURSDAY AND THINGS HAVE TRENDED FURTHER EAST AWAY FROM THE I-95
CORRIDOR FOR THURSDAY AS WELL. IF THINGS CONTINUE TO TREND
FURTHER EAST, THURSDAY COULD HAVE CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR. AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE. SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS 20-25
KNOTS ON WEDNESDAY.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR. NO SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER.
SATURDAY...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE (30-50%) WITH SOME
SHOWERS AND POTENTIAL LOW CLOUDS MOVING IN.
MARINE
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND
BEYOND FOR OUR OCEAN WATERS. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS WILL
INCREASE UP TO 30 KNOTS INTO TUESDAY. SEAS WILL ALSO BUILD. FOR THE
DELAWARE BAY, EXPECT A PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN PLACE FOR ALL OCEAN ZONES.
WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS OUT OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AND SEAS 4
TO 7 FEET. MAY NEED TO EXTEND THE SCA FOR DELAWARE BAY INTO
WEDNESDAY BUT HAVE WINDS STAYING BELOW 25 KT CURRENTLY.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...NO MARINE HEADLINES
EXPECTED.
SATURDAY...SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE (25-35%) AS SEAS ESPECIALLY
IN NORTHERN MARINE ZONES COULD GET NEAR 5 FEET.
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM EDT
WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ430-431.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
DISCUSSION...DEAL/FITZSIMMONS/GORSE/HOEFLICH/MPS
AVIATION...FITZSIMMONS/GORSE/HOEFLICH/MPS
MARINE...FITZSIMMONS/HOEFLICH/MPS
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