916
FXUS61 KPHI 021055
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
655 AM EDT SAT MAY 2 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED FOR THE 12Z TAFS.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1. SOME LIGHT RAIN EARLY THIS MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES
THROUGH THE REGION, FOLLOWED BY SOME LIGHT RAIN ALONG THE COAST
OWED TO OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE.
2. FREEZING CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN POCONOS
TONIGHT.
3. MARGINAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY.
4. A SERIES OF SYSTEMS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY LIKELY BRINGS
THE NEXT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...SOME LIGHT RAIN EARLY THIS MORNING AS LOW
PRESSURE PASSES THROUGH THE REGION, FOLLOWED BY SOME LIGHT RAIN
ALONG THE COAST OWED TO OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE.
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING. THE FRONT WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE TODAY, AND
THEN ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ALONG THAT FRONT
LATER TODAY.
LIGHT RAIN WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
RAINFALL TOTALS GENERALLY LESS THAN 1/10 INCH. MOST RAINFALL
WILL LATER TODAY WITH THE OFFSHORE LOW WILL STAY OFFSHORE,
THOUGH SOME WRAPAROUND RAIN MAY MAKE IT TO NEW JERSEY AND
DELAWARE COASTS. POPS WILL BE MINIMAL, AS WELL AS ANY ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL.
SKIES REMAIN CLOUDY TODAY WITH GENERALLY COOLER CONDITIONS.
HIGHS WILL TOP OFF IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.
KEY MESSAGE 2...FREEZING CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN
POCONOS TONIGHT.
LOW PRESSURE DEPARTS THIS EVENING, AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND GULF COAST STATES.
MEANWHILE, AN UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEAST. THIS
ALLOWS FOR A NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA WITH COLD AIR
ADVECTION. LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE 30S AND LOW 40S WITH
TEMPERATURES AS LOW AS THE LOW 30S IN THE SOUTHERN POCONOS. A
FREEZE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CARBON AND MONROE COUNTIES
TONIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 3...MARGINAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
ON SUNDAY.
DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE AND INCOMING HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT SETTING UP FOR THE BACK HALF OF THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO A BREEZY SUNDAY, WITH
DOWNSLOPING NORTHWEST FLOW AND WIND GUSTS AROUND 20-25 MPH
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND THE AFTERNOON.
WITH BREEZY AND DRY NORTHWEST WINDS, COMBINED WITH DEEP MIXING
SETTING UP (TAPPING INTO VERY DRY AIR ALOFT), THERE IS A
MARGINAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT AS MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL FALL INTO
THE 25-35% RANGE. THE SAVING GRACE AND LIMITING FACTOR MAY BE
THE RECENT RAINFALL THAT HAS FALLEN OVER THE AREA. GIVEN THAT
IT IS ALSO MAY, WE HAVE MOSTLY GREENED UP, WHICH ALSO CAN LIMIT
THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT. WILL COORDINATE WITH OUR PARTNERS LATER
THIS MORNING TO SEE IF ANY STATEMENTS ARE NEEDED.
KEY MESSAGE 4...A SERIES OF SYSTEMS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
LIKELY BRINGS THE NEXT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL.
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY AND WILL
STALL OUT OVER THE AREA. A POTENTIALLY MORE DYNAMIC AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND CUTS INLAND TO OUR WEST
ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OVER THOSE
TWO DAYS.
THE LATEST GUIDANCE HAS THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION FALLING
WITH THAT SECOND SYSTEM SLIDING THROUGH THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. THIS PERIOD ALSO FEATURES THE HIGHEST POPS (70-90%) IN
THE FORECAST. TAKING A PEAK AT SOME OF THE MODEL SOUNDINGS FROM
SOME OF THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE, CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SEVERE
WEATHER, MAINLY ON THURSDAY, BUT STILL A LONG WAY OFF TO GET
INTO SPECIFICS. THE NBM PROBABILITY OF TOTAL RAINFALL FROM THOSE
TWO SYSTEMS IS ABOUT 40-60% FOR 1 INCH OR MORE FROM
PHILADELPHIA ON NORTH AND ABOUT 20-40% SOUTH OF PHILADELPHIA.
FLOODING CONCERNS APPEAR MINIMAL BASED ON HOW DRY WE HAVE BEEN
BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH TO SEE WHAT, IF ANY, THE SEVERE THREAT
WILL BE.
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
TODAY...VFR. SOME LIGHT RA POSSIBLE AT KACY, BUT RESTRICTIONS
NOT EXPECTED. NW WINDS AROUND 10 KT. OCNL GUSTS TO 20 KT THIS
MORNING. WINDS TURN SE AT KACY THIS AFTERNOON. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE.
TONIGHT...VFR. NW WINDS AROUND 5 KT. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...VFR. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS 20-25 KT.
SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER.
MONDAY...VFR. SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KT.
MONDAY NIGHT...VFR. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER.
TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR. SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY WIND
GUSTS 20-25 KT.
WEDNESDAY...PRIMARILY VFR. SOME SHOWERS MOVE IN FOR THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHICH COULD RESULT IN SOME RESTRICTIONS.
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS 20-25 KT.
MARINE
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT. SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KT, BECOMING NORTHWEST LATER THIS
MORNING, THEN SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15
KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT TONIGHT. SEAS 3 TO 4 FT.
VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN RAIN POSSIBLE FROM TIME TO TIME TODAY OVER
THE OPEN OCEAN WATERS.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES EXPECTED, BUT CANNOT RULE OUT THE
POTENTIAL (15-20%) FOR SCA CONDITIONS AS NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS
WILL GET CLOSE TO 25 KT.
SUNDAY NIGHT...NO MARINE HEADLINES EXPECTED.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED (90-100%
CONFIDENCE). WIND GUSTS OUT OF THE SOUTH AROUND 20-30 KT. GALE
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE (30-40%) ON TUESDAY NIGHT. SEAS OF 4 TO 7
FEET ANTICIPATED.
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...FREEZE WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
PAZ054-055.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...HOEFLICH/MPS
AVIATION...HOEFLICH/MPS
MARINE...HOEFLICH/MPS
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