315  
FXUS61 KPHI 090201  
AFDPHI  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ  
1001 PM EDT TUE JUL 8 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO THE  
AREA TONIGHT AND THEN WAFFLE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH  
LATE WEEK AS ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH. BERMUDA HIGH  
PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND, EVENTUALLY  
BREAKING DOWN FOR THE START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK. SEVERAL  
DISTURBANCES WILL PASS THROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND AS WELL.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
FLOOD WATCH FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT WAS CANCELLED. A NEW FLOOD  
WATCH WAS ISSUED FOR TOMORROW BETWEEN 5 PM AND 2 AM FOR AREAS  
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-78.  
 
THE UNSETTLED, ACTIVE, AND TROPICAL WEATHER PATTERN WILL  
CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY DUE TO A SLOW-MOVING FRONT WHICH WILL  
WORK ITS WAY TOWARD THE AREA BUT WON'T CROSS FULLY THROUGH THE  
AREA UNTIL FRIDAY.  
 
THE LINE OF STORMS THAT IMPACTED THE REGION EARLIER THIS  
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OFFSHORE INTO  
TONIGHT. HOWEVER, A FEW RESIDUAL SHOWERS MAY REMAIN AROUND THE  
AREA, ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE COAST. SKIES TONIGHT WILL REMAIN  
MOSTLY CLOUDY, KEEPING TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN VERY MILD  
OVERNIGHT IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.  
 
WEDNESDAY WILL VIRTUALLY BE A RINSE AND REPEAT KIND OF DAY IN  
TERMS OF THE OVERALL FORECAST, EXCEPT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL  
HAVE MADE ITS WAY CLOSER TO THE AREA, SUPPRESSING THE OVERALL  
THREAT OF CONVECTION A BIT FURTHER SOUTH. EXPECTING PARTLY  
CLOUDY SKIES IN THE MORNING TO GIVE WAY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES  
COME THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE TROPICAL AND DEEP MOISTURE AIRMASS  
PERSISTING, IN ADDITION TO THE NEARBY FRONTAL BOUNDARY, YET  
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP MID-LATE  
AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY. GREATEST THREAT WILL BE FROM  
PHILADELPHIA ON SOUTH, WHERE BETTER ATMOSPHERIC PARAMETERS  
OVERLAP WITH ONE ANOTHER, SO SPC HAS INTRODUCED A SLIGHT RISK IN  
THOSE AREAS, WITH A MARGINAL RISK REMAINING ELSEWHERE.  
 
SIMILARLY, WPC HAS KEPT A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR  
MOST OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL  
ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED. DUE TO THERE BEING A LARGE  
GAP IN BETWEEN POTENTIAL HEAVY RAIN PERIODS TONIGHT, WILL HAVE  
FUTURE SHIFTS CONSIDER ANOTHER FLOOD WATCH FOR WEDNESDAY. ALL IN  
ALL ANOTHER MUGGY AND HUMID DAY IS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL  
BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER DUE TO MORE CLOUD COVER COMPARED TO  
TODAY WHERE HEAT INDICIES WILL LARGELY REMAIN IN THE 90S FOR THE  
MAJORITY OF THE AREA. LOOKS LIKE WE'LL FALL SHORT OF NEEDING  
ANY HEAT HEADLINES THOUGH.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL BE OVER THE NORTHEAST AND MID-  
ATLANTIC FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL BE  
IN THE LOW TO MID 70S, ALONG WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID  
80S. THIS WILL YIELD HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S.  
THESE HIGH DEW POINTS WILL ALSO KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES AT NIGHT  
QUITE WARM, AND LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER 70S.  
 
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL REMAIN ON TAP AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL  
HOVER OVER THE AREA. ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE IN  
PLACE GIVEN THOSE HIGH DEW POINTS, AND PWATS WILL BE UP TO AND  
IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES. LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS  
WEDNESDAY EVENING WILL BE CAPABLE OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND  
FLASH FLOODING. WITH SB CAPE VALUES UP TO 1500 J/KG AND 30 TO 35  
KT OF 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR, CANNOT RULE OUT DAMAGING WINDS FROM  
THUNDERSTORMS.  
 
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT THE AREA  
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY APPROACHES  
FROM THE WEST AND PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. GIVEN HOW WARM AND  
HUMID CONDITIONS WILL BE, LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND DAMAGING WIND  
GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN. THIS PATTERN CONTINUES ON FRIDAY.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
 
 
FAIRLY TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN ON TAP FOR THE LONG TERM  
PERIOD WITH WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS. SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL  
GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 70S OR SO FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH  
AROUND SUNDAY, AND THEN DEW POINTS LOOK TO COME DOWN A BIT FOR  
THE START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK, GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO  
LOW 70S. IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE THAT DURING THE PEAK HEATING OF THE  
DAY THAT DEW POINTS DROP BY A FEW DEGREES DUE TO MIXING. HIGHS  
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S, POSSIBLY AROUND 90 IN  
SOME SPOTS. THIS WILL GIVE WAY TO MAX HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE  
LOW TO MID 90S.  
 
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION FROM TIME  
TO TIME, BUT CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND PLACEMENT IS LOW. WILL  
GENERALLY FOLLOW THE NBM AND GO WITH 30 TO 50 PERCENT POPS FOR  
MOST OF THIS TIME, THOUGH THE NBM IS INDICATING 60 PERCENT POPS  
FOR THE SOUTHERN POCONOS, LEHIGH VALLEY, AND BERKS COUNTY ON  
SUNDAY DUE TO A STRONGER SYSTEM POSSIBLY APPROACHING THEN.  
IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOSTLY  
BE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS, AND THERE ARE NOT MANY  
FACTORS INDICATING PRECIPITATION WOULD BE WIDESPREAD AND  
ORGANIZED AT THIS TIME.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
 
 
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,  
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.  
 
TONIGHT...VFR EXPECTED WITH MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE IN ANY  
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AND AGAIN POSSIBLY AFTER 06Z AS SOME  
STRATUS DEVELOPS, HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOW, AND GENERALLY HAVE  
SCT CEILINGS BELOW 3000 FT TO COVER THIS POTENTIAL. SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS WILL WANE INTO THE EVENING HOURS AND TAPER OFF BY  
MIDNIGHT. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 3-5 KT. MODERATE-LOW  
CONFIDENCE.  
 
WEDNESDAY...PRIMARILY VFR WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON. ANY SHOWERS AND  
STORMS MAY CAUSE LOCALIZED AREAS OF VSBY/CIG RESTRICTIONS.  
SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5-10 KT. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
 
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...OVERALL, VFR CONDITIONS.  
HOWEVER, AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHRA/TSRA MAY RESULT IN BRIEF  
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IF A GIVEN STORM PASSES OVER A TERMINAL. SUB-  
VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT NIGHT DUE TO FOG AND LOW CLOUDS, BUT  
CONFIDENCE LOW ON TIMING AND PLACEMENT.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SOUTH-  
SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10-20 KT THIS AFTERNOON, DIMINISH TO  
AROUND 5-10 KT TONIGHT, BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY TO  
AROUND 10-15 KT. SEAS OF 3-4 FEET. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS  
EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING, WHERE LOCALIZED  
WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 34 KT ARE POSSIBLE. ANOTHER ROUND OF  
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
 
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS FOR THIS  
PERIOD. AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE  
EACH DAY. VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM TIME TO TIME,  
ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT.  
 
RIP CURRENTS...  
 
FOR WEDNESDAY, A SOUTH/SOUTHWEST SHORE PARALLEL WIND OF AROUND  
10-20 MPH AND BREAKING WAVES OF AROUND 3 FEET WILL RESULT IN A  
MODERATE RISK FOR THE JERSEY SHORE. WITH WIND DIRECTION MAINLY  
OFFSHORE ALONG THE DELAWARE BEACHES, A LOW RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS  
IS IN PLACE  
 
FOR THURSDAY...FLOW TURNS MORE SOUTHERLY RESULTING IN SLIGHT  
ONSHORE COMPONENT FOR CAPE MAY AND ATLANTIC COUNTY, THOUGH ONLY  
AROUND 10 MPH OR SO. THIS WILL RESULT IN A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP  
CURRENTS IN THOSE LOCATIONS. SEAS WILL BE AROUND 2 TO 3 FEET  
ALONG THE ENTIRE COAST. MORE OFFSHORE OR SHORE PARALLEL LIGHT  
FLOW WILL RESULT IN A LOW RISK FOR OCEAN AND MONMOUTH COUNTY AT  
THE JERSEY SHORE AND FOR THE DELAWARE BEACHES.  
 
RIP CURRENTS OCCUR OFTEN IN THE VICINITIES OF JETTIES AND PIERS  
AND THE SPEED OF THE CURRENTS ARE GENERALLY MAXIMIZED AT LOW  
TIDES.  
 
FOR SPECIFIC BEACH FORECASTS, VISIT WEATHER.GOV/BEACH/PHI  
 

 
   
HYDROLOGY
 
 
A FLOOD WATCH WAS ISSUED FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-78 FOR  
WEDNESDAY. RAINFALL OF AROUND 0.5 INCHES TO UPWARDS OF 3 TO 4  
INCHES FELL ACROSS THE WATCH AREA. THIS RESULTS IN A SATURATED  
SURFACE AND LOW FFG VALUES WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. IT WILL NOT  
TAKE MUCH TO CAUSE FURTHER FLOODING ISSUES, ESPECIALLY IN SE PA,  
WHERE WIDESPREAD FLOODING WAS REPORTED TODAY. RAINFALL RATES OF  
2 TO 3 INCHES PER HOUR ARE POSSIBLE WITH THUNDERSTORMS ROLLING  
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.  
 

 
   
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
PA...FLOOD WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY  
NIGHT FOR PAZ060>062-070-071-101>106.  
NJ...FLOOD WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY  
NIGHT FOR NJZ009-010-012>027.  
DE...FLOOD WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY  
NIGHT FOR DEZ001>004.  
MD...FLOOD WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY  
NIGHT FOR MDZ012-015-019-020.  
MARINE...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
SYNOPSIS...MPS  
NEAR TERM...DESILVA/HOEFLICH/STAARMANN  
SHORT TERM...MPS  
LONG TERM...MPS  
AVIATION...DESILVA/MPS  
MARINE...DESILVA/MPS  
HYDROLOGY...HOEFLICH  
 
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