530
FXUS61 KPHI 082304
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
704 PM EDT MON JUN 8 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARMING.
2. DANGEROUS HEAT IS LIKELY DURING THE LATTER PORTION OF THE
WEEK.
3. THERE ARE MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARMING.
MID- LEVEL RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO TAKE SHAPE ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT THROUGH MID-WEEK. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
IN PLACE TONIGHT, THEN GRADUALLY BUILD OFF THE COAST ON TUESDAY.
IN LARGE PART THANKS TO THE BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE, THERE
AREN'T ANY SIGNIFICANT RAIN CHANCES THROUGH TUESDAY.
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE UNDER THE HIGH TONIGHT,
WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S, WITH SOME
40S IN THE TYPICAL COOL SPOTS.
THE COOL DOWN WILL BE SHORT LIVED, AS BY TUESDAY, LOW LEVEL
FLOW WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY, KICK STARTING A WARMING TREND.
KEY MESSAGE 2..DANGEROUS HEAT IS LIKELY DURING THE LATTER
PORTION OF THE WEEK.
THERE IS INCREASING CONCERN FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR DANGEROUSLY HOT
CONDITIONS DURING THE LATTER PORTION OF THIS WEEK. A WARM FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO CROSS THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
WHICH WILL INCREASE THE WARMING TREND THAT BEGINS ON TUESDAY.
THURSDAY CURRENTLY LOOKS TO BE THE DAY WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR
DANGEROUSLY HOT CONDITIONS, WITH MAXIMUM HOT AIR ADVECTION IN THE
WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT. THERE IS MORE UNCERTAINTY ON FRIDAY - SOME
DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAVE SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVER THE REGION, WHICH
WOULD MEAN WARMER CONDITIONS THAN THURSDAY. HOWEVER, THERE IS ALSO
MODEL SOLUTIONS DEPICTING A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN SEABOARD WHICH WOULD RESULT IN COOLER CONDITIONS COMPARED TO
THURSDAY BOTH DUE TO LOWER THICKNESSES AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER.
RIGHT NOW, THE HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY ARE SIMILAR TO
THURSDAY GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY.
WHEN DISCUSSING HEAT IMPACTS, IT IS NOT ONLY A FACTOR OF THE
TEMPERATURE BUT ALSO HUMIDITY. REGARDLESS OF THE PATTERN THAT THE
MODELS ARE SPLIT BETWEEN, THIS PATTERN FAVORS HIGHER DEW POINTS,
THANKS IN LARGE PART TO THE PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW.
THE NET RESULT IS WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S AND MAXIMUM
HEAT INDEX VALUES NEAR OR ABOVE 100 DEGREES ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
BEYOND FRIDAY, THE RISK FOR EXTREME HEAT IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE
OVER THE WEEKEND. A SET OF COLD FRONTS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MANY ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ARE NEAR OR IN THE 90S WITH HEAT INDEX
VALUES BEING CLOSE TO THE AIR TEMPERATURE AS DEW POINTS ARE
LOWER FROM THE COLD FRONTS MOVING THROUGH.
KEY MESSAGE 3...THERE ARE MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
THE PATTERN IN PLACE WILL BEGIN TO SUPPORT DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY. WHILE THERE ARE A FEW
FEATURES TO FOCUS ON FOR THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL OF STORMS, THERE WILL
BE CHANCES EVERY DAY JUST FROM DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION
DEVELOPING OFF THE SEA BREEZE OR OROGRAPHIC LIFT.
THE HIGHER CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION COME FIRST WITH THE
POTENTIAL MID LEVEL TROUGH ON FRIDAY. AS NOTED PREVIOUSLY, SOME
OF THE MACHINE LEARNING GUIDANCE FROM CSU IS BEGINNING TO
HIGHLIGHT FRIDAY AS POTENTIALLY A SEVERE WEATHER DAY. STILL A
LOT OF DETAILS TO TUNE OUT BETWEEN NOW AND THEN, BUT JUST
SOMETHING TO MONITOR AT THIS TIME.
RECENT DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED A BIT DRIER FOR THE
WEEKEND. HOWEVER, THERE REMAINS A LARGE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY. A
SERIES OF COLD FRONTS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS
WEEKEND INTO MONDAY. THE AIR MASS IS DRIER DURING THIS TIMEFRAME
COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, SO THE EXACT EXTENT OF THE
PRECIPITATION IS MORE UNCERTAIN WITH POPS GENERALLY 20-40% DURING
PARTS OF THIS PERIOD.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
TONIGHT...VFR EXPECTED. SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WIND THIS EVENING OF
5-10 KT BECOMING PREVAILING SOUTHERLY AT LESS THAN 5 KT AFTER
03-04Z WITH CALM PERIODS LIKELY. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
TUESDAY...VFR. SOUTH WIND LESS THAN 5 KT IN THE MORNING WILL
BECOME SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 KT AFTER 14Z. SOME GUSTS UP TO
20 KT ARE POSSIBLE BUT HAVE LEFT OUT OF THE TAFS FOR NOW. SCT
CLOUDS AROUND 4- 6 KFT AGL LIKELY DURING THE AFTERNOON,
OTHERWISE, INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS LATE. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY THOUGH FRIDAY...PREVAILING VFR. A FEW BRIEF PERIODS OF SUB-
VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.
SATURDAY... MAINLY VFR. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER.
MARINE
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD STAY BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA
THROUGH TUESDAY.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...NO MARINE HEADLINES EXPECTED. WINDS GENERALLY
BETWEEN 10-20 KT WITH SEAS AROUND 2-3 FEET.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH
WIND GUSTS UPWARDS OF 25 KT AND SEAS BUILDING TO 3-5 FEET.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES EXPECTED. WINDS
GENERALLY BETWEEN 10-20 KT WITH SEAS AROUND 2-4 FEET.
RIP CURRENTS...
ON TUESDAY, LIGHT SOUTH WINDS IN THE MORNING WILL INCREASE TO 10
TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. BREAKING
WAVES WILL AVERAGE 1 TO 2 FEET WITH A LIGHT EASTERLY SWELL WITH
A PERIOD AROUND 7 SECONDS. AS A RESULT, THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF DANGEROUS AND LIFE THREATENING RIP CURRENTS
AT THE JERSEY SHORE AND AT DELAWARE BEACHES.
ON WEDNESDAY, SOUTH WINDS INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP
TO 25 MPH. BREAKING WAVES WILL BE 1 TO 2 FEET WITH A LIGHT
EASTERLY SWELL AROUND 8 SECONDS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A LOW RISK
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF DANGEROUS AND LIFE THREATENING RIP
CURRENTS AT THE JERSEY SHORE IN MONMOUTH COUNTY AND DELAWARE
BEACHES, AND A MODERATE RISK AT THE JERSEY SHORE IN OCEAN,
ATLANTIC, AND CAPE MAY COUNTIES.
OCEAN WATER TEMPERATURES ARE GRADUALLY INCREASING, BUT REMAIN
MOSTLY IN THE 60S.
FOR SPECIFIC BEACH FORECASTS, VISIT WEATHER.GOV/BEACH/PHI
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...GUZZO/JOHNSON/RCM
AVIATION...COOPER/GUZZO/RCM
MARINE...GUZZO/MPS/RCM
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