382
FXUS61 KPHI 301048
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
648 AM EDT WED SEP 30 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED THE AVIATION SECTION FOR THE 12Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
1. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MAINE DEPARTS AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE AREA.
2. TIDAL FLOODING CONTINUES TO RECEDE IN THE BACK BAYS OF NEW
JERSEY AND DELAWARE.
3. UNSETTLED WEATHER POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE AREA.
THE FORMER NOR'EASTER, NOW WEAK LOW PRESSURE, OVER THE GULF OF MAINE
CONTINUES TO DEPART THE NORTHEAST. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR
WEST VIRGINIA WILL BUILD EAST TODAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY.
WITH WINDS BECOMING NEARLY CALM AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
OVER THE AREA, PATCHY FOG WILL DEVELOP DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. FOG WILL LIFT AND DISSIPATE THIS MORNING, GIVING WAY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. MILD WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
KEY MESSAGE 2...TIDAL FLOODING CONTINUES TO RECEDE IN THE BACK BAYS
OF NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE.
TIDAL LEVELS CONTINUE TO DECLINE AND RECEDE AS OFFSHORE FLOW
CONTINUES TO ALLOW THE BACK BAYS TO DRAIN. WHILE SOME OF THE
BACK BAYS OF BARNEGAT BAY, REHOBOTH BAY, JEFFERSON CREEK AND
LITTLE ASSAWOMAN BAY MAY SEE SOME SPOTTY MINOR TIDAL FLOODING
CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY, THE BULK OF THE THREAT HAS NOW
ENDED. AS A RESULT, NO COASTAL FLOODING HEADLINES ARE CURRENTLY
IN EFFECT.
OUTSIDE OF THESE AREAS, A FEW LOCALES MAY TOUCH SPOTTY MINOR
WITH TONIGHT'S HIGH TIDE CYCLE, OTHERWISE, NO FURTHER TIDAL
FLOODING IS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.
KEY MESSAGE 3...UNSETTLED WEATHER POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY.
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. AS IT MOVES INTO THE AREA, THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS. HOWEVER, AS THE VORTICITY IMPULSE ALOFT WEAKENS, THE
SHOWERS MAY DISSIPATE FOR MANY AREAS AS THE MOVE EASTWARD.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL THEN STALL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
REGION WITH A SURFACE HIGH WEDGING IN FROM THE NORTH. A STRONGER
HIGH TO THE NORTH WOULD FORCE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO STALL
FURTHER SOUTH, ALLOWING FOR A DRIER SATURDAY. A WEAKER HIGH AND
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT STALLS FURTHER NORTH, HOWEVER, WOULD
INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE DELMARVA AND SOUTHERN
NEW JERSEY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE STALLED FRONT ON SATURDAY THEN MOVE NORTH SUNDAY.
SHOWERS WILL INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS A COUPLE OF
SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES MOVE INTO THE AREA, ALONG WITH THE
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW TO
KEEP CONDITIONS DRY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
WEDNESDAY...VFR. W-SW WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR. WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE. HIGH
CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MVFR CONDITIONS INCREASE, POSSIBLE
IFR, WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES.
MARINE
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
OVERALL, A WESTERLY FLOW AROUND 10 KT, BECOMING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.
SUNDAY...SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
RIP CURRENTS...
FOR WEDNESDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE MORNING AROUND 5 TO 10
MPH WILL BECOME SOUTH IN THE AFTERNOON. BREAKING WAVE HEIGHTS OF
1 TO 2 FEET ARE EXPECTED WITH A LINGERING 1 TO 2 FOOT EASTERLY
SWELL AROUND 8 SECONDS. GIVEN THESE CONDITIONS, HAVE OPTED TO
MAINTAIN A LOW RISK FOR DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS FOR BOTH THE
JERSEY SHORE AND DELAWARE BEACHES.
FOR THURSDAY...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 10 TO 15
MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. BREAKING WAVE
HEIGHTS OF 1 TO 3 FEET ARE EXPECTED WITH A 2 FOOT EASTERLY SWELL
AROUND 9 SECONDS. GIVEN THE INCREASING PARALLEL FLOW ALONG THE
NEW JERSEY COAST AND SLIGHTLY LONGER PERIOD SWELL, HAVE OPTED
TO GO WITH A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS FOR NEW JERSEY
BEACHES; WITH A LOW RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS FOR THE DELAWARE
BEACHES.
THE SURF SEASON WILL CONCLUDE FOR THE YEAR ON SEPTEMBER 30TH. NO
FURTHER RIP CURRENT FORECASTS WILL BE ISSUED BEYOND SEPTEMBER
30TH UNTIL 2027.
FOR SPECIFIC BEACH FORECASTS, VISIT WEATHER.GOV/PHI
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MJL
AVIATION...MJL
MARINE...MJL
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