211  
FXUS61 KPHI 241021  
AFDPHI  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ  
621 AM EDT FRI MAY 24 2019  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BUILD ACROSS THE  
MIDDLE ATLANTIC LATER TODAY AND REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH  
SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY  
CAUSING A FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. MORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL  
RETURN FOR LATER MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY. A DISTURBANCE WILL ARRIVE  
FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
 
 
MUCH QUIETER DAY IN STORE FOR THE AREA AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE  
BUILDS NW OF THE AREA OVER THE GREAT LAKES WHILE AT MID LVLS HEIGHTS  
RISE AS THE SE RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD NORTHWARD IN THE WAKE OF THE  
EARLIER SHORTWAVE.  
 
GIVEN GOOD MIXING AND MODEST PRESSURE RISES, WILL LIKELY SEE BREEZY  
NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH MOST OF THE DAYTIME HOURS (GUSTS GENERALLY  
IN THE 20-30 MPH RANGE). THERE WILL BE A CONSIDERABLY DRIER AIRMASS  
IN PLACE WITH CLOUD COVER LIMITED TO PATCHY CIRRUS AND SOME  
STRATOCUMULUS (MOST NOTABLE OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA).  
GIVEN A WELL-MIXED ATMOSPHERE, A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUN, AND OFFSHORE  
FLOW HIGHS WILL GENERALLY RUN IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S (PROBABLY A  
BIT COOLER IN THE FAR NORTH WHERE THERE MAY BE MORE CLOUD  
COVER).  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/
 
 
THE HIGH WILL MOVE OVERHEAD THIS EVENING AND THEN OFFSHORE  
OVERNIGHT, WHICH WILL CAUSE THE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS TO DECREASE IN  
SPEED AND VEER TO A MORE EASTERLY DIRECTION. MODELS INDICATE A WEAK  
SHORTWAVE DIVING AROUND THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE OVERNIGHT IN  
THE VICINITY OF DELMARVA, BUT AM NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING OTHER THAN  
MAYBE AN INCREASE IN MID-CLOUDS FROM THIS FEATURE. CAN'T RULE  
OUT SOME STRATUS BY THE COAST GIVEN ONSHORE WINDS AND SOME  
COOLING/MOISTENING OF THE LOW LEVELS, BUT THE SIGNAL IS NOT TOO  
STRONG FOR THIS OUTSIDE OF THE NAM. OTHER THAN THAT OVERNIGHT  
MINS SHOULD COOL TO NEAR CLIMO; GIVEN LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW AND A  
DRIER AIRMASS.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
 
 
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP WILL CONTINUE WITH AN UPPER HIGH  
PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTH AND A RATHER DEEP TROUGH OVER THE  
WESTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY. A LOW ACROSS CANADA WILL GUIDE LOW  
PRESSURE SYSTEMS AND FRONTS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDDLE  
ATLANTIC THIS WEEKEND AND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS  
MEANS SHOWERY CONDITIONS WITH SOME TSTMS POSSIBLE. THE MOST  
FAVORED TIMES FOR THE RAINS ARE SAT NIGHT THRU SUN NIGHT AND  
AGAIN WED/THU NEXT WEEK. SINCE THE PATTERN IS MORE SHOWERY, SOME  
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE, BUT THE RAINS WILL BE SCATTERED  
AND INTERMITTENT.  
 
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL SATURDAY, BUT THEN TURN MUCH  
MORE SUMMER-LIKE SUNDAY WHEN MERCURY READINGS WILL APPROACH 90  
IN MANY AREAS, SAVE THE SOUTHERN POCONOS AND THE SHORE. THE ABOVE  
NORMAL READINGS WILL CARRY INTO NEXT WEEK, ALTHOUGH HIGHS MON/TUE  
WILL BE MORE LIKE LOW/MID 80S. HIGHS WILL THEN GO BACK INTO THE  
LOW 90S WED AND PERHAPS AGAIN THU. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE  
SOMEWHAT UNCOMFORTABLE SUNDAY AND THEN AGAIN TOWARDS THE  
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
 
 
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,  
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.  
 
FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS. NW WINDS  
SUSTAINED AROUND 15 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 25 KNOTS ARE  
EXPECTED THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON.  
 
FRIDAY NIGHT... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH WINDS DECREASING IN  
SPEED TO AROUND 5-10 KTS, AND VEERING FROM NORTHERLY TO  
EASTERLY AND THEN EVENTUALLY SOUTHEASTERLY BY SATURDAY MORNING.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
 
SAT...MOSTLY VFR.  
 
SAT NIGHT THRU SUN NIGHT...VFR MUCH OF THE TIME, BUT A FEW  
SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITH LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.  
 
MON THRU TUE...MOSTLY VFR.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 7 AM WITH  
ANY ELEVATED SEAS (MOSTLY IN OUR NORTHERN MARINE ZONES) COMING  
DOWN TO 2-3 FEET BY THIS AFTERNOON. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL  
LIKELY GUST TO 20-25KTS AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON.  
 
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
WINDS AND SEAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SCA CONDITIONS FOR THE  
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS  
EXPECTED, BUT A FEW TSTMS WILL BE ACROSS THE WATERS SAT NIGHT  
AND AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT. LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS ARE  
POSSIBLE WITH ANY TSTM.  
 

 
   
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
PA...NONE.  
NJ...NONE.  
DE...NONE.  
MD...NONE.  
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR  
ANZ450>455.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...O'HARA  
NEAR TERM...CARR  
SHORT TERM...CARR  
LONG TERM...O'HARA  
AVIATION...CARR/O'HARA  
MARINE...CARR/O'HARA  
 
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