229
FXUS61 KPHI 190613
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
213 AM EDT THU MAR 19 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE LATE WEEK THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH A
COUPLE WEAK SYSTEMS BRINGING CHANCES OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION, MAINLY
RAIN, BEFORE A COOL-DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE LATE WEEK THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND WITH A COUPLE WEAK SYSTEMS BRINGING CHANCES OF
LIGHT PRECIPITATION, MAINLY RAIN, BEFORE A COOL-DOWN EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH EASTERN CANADA WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURES
RETURNING TO MORE SEASONABLE VALUES WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S. A STRONGER LOW WILL THEN LIFT BY TO OUR NORTH
ON FRIDAY AS IT MOVES FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TOWARDS NEW
ENGLAND. THE INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL HELP CONTINUE THE WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS GENERALLY GETTING
INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S FOR MOST AREAS. THE SYSTEM WILL ALSO
DRAG A WEAKENING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SOME
ASSOCIATED RAIN/SHOWERS. SOME SHOWERS COULD ARRIVE IN OUR N/W ZONES
FROM BERKS COUNTY NORTHWARD THROUGH THE LEHIGH VALLEY INTO THE
SOUTHERN POCONOS AS EARLY AS LATE FRIDAY BUT MOST OF THE PRECIP
SHOULD OCCUR DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PERIOD FRIDAY NIGHT.
ALL RAIN IS EXPECTED AS LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE
40S (UPPER 30S OVER THE SOUTHERN POCONOS). PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
SHOULD BE GENERALLY IN THE TENTH TO QUARTER INCH RANGE OR LESS.
THE WARM ADVECTION PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AS YET
ANOTHER SYSTEM DEVELOPS TO OUR WEST. EXPECT A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
DAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
THE HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS IN OUR N/W ZONES WHERE HIGHS SHOULD BE
MAINLY IN THE 50S. AS THE SW FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS APPROACHING
SYSTEM INCREASES INTO SUNDAY, IT WILL BE EVEN WARMER WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 65 TO 70 RANGE. THE EXCEPTION WILL AGAIN BE FOR
HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE SOUTHERN POCONOS AND NW NJ AS WELL AS RIGHT
NEAR THE COAST WHERE HIGHS WILL GENERALLY TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOW 60S.
THE COLD FRONT WITH THE AFORMENTIONED SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SOME RAIN/SHOWERS.
COLDER CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE IN IN ITS WAKE WITH A
RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE BUT FAIR WEATHER FOR THE EARLY TO MIDDLE
PART OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
THROUGH 12Z...VFR. S TO SE WINDS AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS. HIGH
CONFIDENCE.
THURSDAY...VFR WITH VARIABLE CLOUD COVER. SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND
5 KTS EARLY, SHIFTING SOUTHERLY AND INCREASING TO 5-10 KTS BY
15Z, THEN SHIFTING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AFTER 18Z FOR INLAND
TERMINALS. ILG/MIV/ACY WIND DIRECTION WILL STAY MORE SOUTH TO
SOUTHEASTERLY DUE TO MARINE INFLUENCE. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR. SOUTHERLY WINDS DIMINISHING TO AROUND 5
KTS OR LESS OVERNIGHT, LOCALLY CALM WINDS NORTH OF PHL. HIGH
CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...SUB VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH SOME SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH. IMPROVEMENT TO VFR SHOULD
THEN OCCUR FOR SATURDAY THROUGH MOST OF SUNDAY BEFORE ANOTHER PERIOD
OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IS THEN POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE SUNDAY INTO
EARLY MONDAY DUE TO SHOWERS. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR THEN
EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY.
MARINE
NO MARINE HAZARDS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. SOUTHEAST WINDS 5-10
KTS SHIFTING SOUTHERLY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS, THEN MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY LATE TONIGHT. SEAS 2-4 FEET. FAIR WEATHER.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE LATE DAY FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SW WINDS INCREASING
TO AROUND 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEAS NEAR 5 FEET.
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE
PROBABLE WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 4-6 FEET AND A NW WIND INCREASING TO
25-30 KNOTS.
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...FITZSIMMONS/GUZZO
AVIATION...FITZSIMMONS/STAARMANN
MARINE...FITZSIMMONS/STAARMANN
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