718
FXUS61 KPHI 280126
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
926 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED WORDING FOR THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THIS EVENING.
KEY MESSAGES
1. A FEW SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT EARLY TONIGHT.
2. DRIER AND MORE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1... A FEW SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT EARLY
TONIGHT.
ONE FINAL EVENING OF SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED WEATHER AS A COLD FRONT
MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST SWEEPS IN AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
IN BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT.
A COLD FRONT IS MOVING NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN POCONOS AND LEHIGH VALLEY THIS HOUR. A FEW AREAS OF
SHOWERS (MOSTLY LIGHT) ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. THESE ARE SHOWING A
TREND TOWARDS DIMINISHING, BUT WILL PROBABLY TAKE A FEW MORE
HOURS TO TOTALLY DISSIPATE. WE'LL CONTINUE WITH THE LOW
CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR AREAS S/E OF THE CURRENT RAINS.
TSTMS ARE NO LONGER EXPECTED WITH INSTABILITY CONTINUING TO
DECREASES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE AREA WILL BE LIGHT,
PERHAPS A TENTH OF AN INCH, PERHAPS A QUARTER OF AN INCH
LOCALLY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...DRIER AND MORE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS RETURN FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AS AN OMEGA BLOCK
SETS UP OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN
CONTROL THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
SOME GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SWINGING DOWN FOR
THE START OF NEXT WEEK, WHICH COULD BRING SOME UNSETTLED
WEATHER, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE FORECAST BEYOND SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED LOOK TO BE NEAR OR EVEN A
LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE MAY/EARLY JUNE. IT STILL SHOULD BE
A PLEASANT START TO METEOROLOGICAL SUMMER THOUGH.
AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
TONIGHT...VFR AS A (MOSTLY) DRY COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH,
RESULTING IN WINDS GOING MORE NORTHWESTERLY BETWEEN 02Z-05Z,
AROUND 5-10 KT. A VCSH IS A FEW TERMINALS THRU 02Z/03Z. HIGH
CONFIDENCE.
THURSDAY...VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KT WITH GUSTS NEAR 20
KT. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...VFR. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER.
MARINE
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY. WINDS WILL BE
SHIFTING TO A NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION FOR OVERNIGHT AS A COLD
FRONT PASSES, CONTINUING TO BE OUT OF THE NW FOR THURSDAY.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED FOR THIS EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES EXPECTED.
SLIGHT CHANCE (15-20%) OF NEEDING AN SCA ON SATURDAY NIGHT AS
SEAS COULD NEAR 5 FEET.
RIP CURRENTS...
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, A NORTHWEST TO NORTH WIND 10-15 MPH
THURSDAY WILL BECOME WEST TO SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY. A MEDIUM
PERIOD 7 TO 8 SECOND SWELL AND BREAKING WAVES IN THE SURF ZONE OF
AROUND 2 FEET ARE FORECAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN A LOW RISK FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS FOR BOTH THE NEW
JERSEY SHORE AND DELAWARE BEACHES.
OCEAN WATER TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S. THESE
CHILLY WATER TEMPERATURES CAN QUICKLY CAUSE HYPOTHERMIA AND
PHYSICAL INCAPACITATION TO ANYONE SUDDENLY IMMERSED IN THE
WATER.
FOR SPECIFIC BEACH FORECASTS, VISIT WEATHER.GOV/BEACH/PHI
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AKL/HOEFLICH/PO
AVIATION...AKL/HOEFLICH/PO
MARINE...GORSE/HOEFLICH/PO
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