438
FXUS61 KPHI 301247
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
847 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED THE AVIATION SECTION.
KEY MESSAGES
1. ONE LAST DAY OF UNSETTLED WEATHER BEFORE A TRANQUIL STRETCH
TAKES OVER.
2. A FRONTAL SYSTEM ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BRING THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER TODAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...ONE LAST DAY OF UNSETTLED WEATHER BEFORE A
TRANQUIL STRETCH TAKES OVER.
A CLOSED LOW OVER THE NORTH CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE OFF TO THE
EAST/NORTHEAST, WITH OUR AREA REMAINING UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL ROTATE THROUGH LATER THIS AFTERNOON,
TRIGGERING ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE WEATHER
OR FLOODING CONCERNS OVERALL THOUGH AND THIS SHOULD BE THE FINAL
DAY OF ACTIVE AND UNSETTLED WEATHER UNTIL SUNDAY. SOME AREAS
LIKELY STAY DRY AS THE SURFACE LOW SLOWLY PULLS AWAY. THINKING A
LARGE MAJORITY OF SHOWERS WILL BE EAST OF A LINE FROM CAPE MAY
TO PHILADELPHIA TO MOUNT POCONO. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
BE BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JULY, TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 70S/LOW
TO MID 80S.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN TONIGHT, WITH A STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO MODERATE
TOWARDS SEASONAL AVERAGES AS WE GET INTO THE END OF THE WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A FRONTAL SYSTEM ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL
BRING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER TODAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS LATE SATURDAY AND IS REPLACED BY
ADVANCING LOW PRESSURE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AREA. THIS LOW
STRENGTHENS AND MOVES WEST OF OUR AREA LATER SUNDAY AND INTO
MONDAY. THUS SYSTEM WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND A FEW TSTMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE WESTERN COUNTIES AND
ALL AREAS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE PWAT VALUES OFF THE
FORECAST SOUNDINGS DURING THESE TIMES SHOW MORE 2+ INCH PWAT
VALUES FOR OUR REGION. SO IT'S POSSIBLE THAT EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
MAY DEVELOP FOR PARTS OF THE REGION. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
WILL ALSO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT, SO WE LIKELY WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR THE SUNDAY AND MONDAY
AFTERNOON PERIOD. HOWEVER, OUR AREA IS NOT IN ANY LONG TERM
OUTLOOKS, SO THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THERE ARE MORE HYDRO
CONCERNS WITH THIS SYSTEM.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
TODAY...VFR CEILINGS. SOME OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS THIS MORNING.
A FEW SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST
TO NORTH WINDS 10-15 KNOTS WITH SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS,
WITH THE WINDS DIMINISHING SOME BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. A SEA
BREEZE AT KACY WILL RESULT IN A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND
EAST AFTER 20Z. LOW CONFIDENCE.
TONIGHT...VFR. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS DIMINISHING TO 5 KNOTS,
THEN BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER.
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...PRIMARILY VFR BUT A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, LIKELY (50-70%
PROBABILITY) RESULTING IN RESTRICTIONS AT TIMES OVER THIS
PERIOD.
MARINE
TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ON THE WATERS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 TO 15 KT AND SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES EXPECTED.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE (20-30%)
AS SEAS COULD NEAR 5 FEET.
RIP CURRENTS...
FOR TODAY, NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH WITH BREAKING WAVES
AROUND 2 FEET OR LESS AND A WEAK 2 FOOT 8 SECOND SOUTHEASTERLY
SWELL. WHILE THE FULL MOON WAS ON WEDNESDAY, DECREASING WAVE
HEIGHTS, MORE OFFSHORE FLOW, AND MINOR 8 SECOND SWELL SHOULD
LIMIT THE RIP CURRENT THREAT. AS A RESULT, ELECTED FOR A LOW
RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS AT ALL BEACHES.
FOR FRIDAY, LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH WILL GIVE
WAY TO A SOUTHEASTERLY SEABREEZE AROUND 10 MPH. BREAKING WAVES
LINGER AROUND 2 FEET OR LESS WITH A 2 FOOT 8 SECOND
SOUTHEASTERLY SWELL. FORECASTING A LOW RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS AT
ALL BEACHES.
FOR SPECIFIC BEACH FORECASTS, VISIT WEATHER.GOV/BEACH/PHI
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...GORSE/HOEFLICH/OHARA
AVIATION...GORSE/HOEFLICH
MARINE...HOEFLICH
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