741
FXUS61 KPHI 301052
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
652 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION.
KEY MESSAGES
1...A WARMING TREND WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MID-WEEK AS A
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION, THOUGH CLOUDS AND
SPOTTY SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT.
2. A COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT,
BRINGING SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
3. WHILE TEMPERATURES FALL IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ON THURSDAY,
THINGS HAVE TRENDED WARMER AS WEDNESDAY NIGHT'S COLD FRONT STALLS
OVER OUR AREA OR LIFTS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. STILL LOOKS UNSETTLED
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK THOUGH.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...A WARMING TREND WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MID-WEEK AS A
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION, THOUGH CLOUDS AND
SPOTTY SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT.
HIGH PRESSURE HAS SLID OFF THE EAST COAST AND WILL REMAIN TO OUR
SOUTHEAST THROUGH MID-WEEK. MEANWHILE, A WARM FRONT WILL START
LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY.
THIS FRONT WILL BRING INCREASED CLOUD COVER TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY,
ALONG WITH SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS POTENTIALLY ARRIVING LATER TODAY AND
LINGERING INTO TUESDAY. THERE MAY EVEN BE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER AS THE
SYSTEM PUSHES NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION LATER TONIGHT, BUT
OVERALL, IMPACTS LOOK MINIMAL, WITH LITTLE IF ANY SEVERE RISK AND
ONLY MODEST AMOUNTS OF RAIN, PERHAPS A COUPLE TENTHS OF A INCH. THE
OTHER MAIN IMPACT WILL BE THE AFOREMENTIONED INCREASING WARMTH.
TODAY'S HIGHS SHOULD BE MOSTLY IN THE 60S, WITH A FEW SPOTS POSSIBLY
REACHING 70, EXCEPT OF COURSE COLDER NEAR THE OCEAN (A THEME WHICH
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST BECAUSE, AFTER ALL, ITS EARLY
SPRING STILL). LOWS TONIGHT WILL MOSTLY STAY IN THE 50S, WITH HIGHS
ON TUESDAY RISING WELL INTO THE 70S TO NEAR 80. LOWS TUESDAY
NIGHT APPEAR LIKELY TO STAY IN THE MUGGY 60S, WITH HIGHS INTO THE
80S FOR MOST ON WEDNESDAY. THIS MAY CHALLENGE RECORDS, SO SEE THE
CLIMATE SECTION BELOW.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT,
BRINGING SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
A WARM AND HUMID DAY ON WEDNESDAY (PERHAPS WITH SOME RECORD HIGHS)
IS EXPECTED. HOWEVER, SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT, MAINLY LATER IN THE DAY AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. WHILE WE CANNOT RULE OUT SOME STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS, THE THREAT IS OVERALL LOW AS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW
SOME INSTABILITY BUT NOT OVERWHELMING. SHEAR IS ALSO RELATIVELY
WEAK. WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR HOW THINGS TREND AND ONCE WE
GET WITHIN RANGE OF CAM GUIDANCE, BUT SPC CURRENTLY DOES NOT HAVE
ANY AREA OUTLOOKED IN THE DAY 3 SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK.
STILL EXPECTING SOME RAIN THOUGH, MAINLY IN THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING, CONTINUING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
CURRENT QPF IS ANYWHERE FROM A TENTH TO HALF AN INCH OF RAIN, WITH
THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS NORTH AND WEST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. NO
FLOODING CONCERNS EXPECTED.
KEY MESSAGE 3... WHILE TEMPERATURES FALL IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ON
THURSDAY, THINGS HAVE TRENDED WARMER AS WEDNESDAY NIGHT'S COLD FRONT
STALLS OVER OUR AREA OR LIFTS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. STILL LOOKS
UNSETTLED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK THOUGH.
THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER OUR AREA AND REMAIN AS A STALLED
BOUNDARY OR LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. THE MAIN CHANGE WITH
THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WAS HAVING WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR THE END
OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. YESTERDAY, IT WAS LOOKING
LIKE TEMPERATURES FRIDAY-SATURDAY WOULD BE IN THE 50S. HOWEVER,
WITH THE FRONT NOW FAILING TO CLEAR THE AREA, IT COULD LIFT
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT, USHERING IN A WARMER AIRMASS.
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER
60S OR LOW 70S, BUT RAMP BACK UP TO WIDESPREAD 70S FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. CANNOT SAY THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS
OCCURRING AS SOME GUIDANCE HAS THE FRONT STALLING OVER THE AREA,
WHICH WOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER WITH MORE CLOUD COVER AND
SHOWERS OVER THE AREA.
HOWEVER, THE UNSETTLED PATTERN LIKELY WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND
UNTIL A SWEEPING STRONG COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH SUNDAY OR SUNDAY
NIGHT. THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WON'T BE A WASHOUT ANY DAY, BUT EACH
DAY FEATURES POPS. HOWEVER, THE THREAT FOR ANY SEVERE WEATHER OR
FLOODING IS LOW TO NONE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
TODAY...VFR. LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR ENDS EARLY. SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 KT. COULD
BE A STRAY SHOWER AROUND IN THE AFTERNOON BUT KEPT VCSH OUT OF
THE TAFS FOR NOW. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
TONIGHT...PRIMARILY VFR. SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT
TIMES IN ANY SCATTERED SHOWERS, WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
THUNDERSTORM LATE TONIGHT. ADDED IN VCSH, BUT KEEPING TS OUT OF
THE TAFS FOR NOW. WINDS SSW 5-10 KTS. SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL
WIND SHEAR EXPECTED TO RETURN TONIGHT.
TUESDAY...PRIMARILY VFR. SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT
TIMES IN ANY SCATTERED SHOWERS. WINDS SSW 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS
TO 20 KTS.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...VFR. NO SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER.
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS
LIKELY (70-80%) WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
MOVING THROUGH. WIND GUSTS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AROUND 20 KT.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE (50-60%) WITH
LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AROUND WITH A STALLED BOUNDARY
NEARBY.
MARINE
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH
TUESDAY. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE S TO SSW AT 10-20 KTS WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KTS, WITH SEAS OF 4-5 FEET TODAY BUILDING TO
5-7 FEET TUESDAY. NO HEADLINES FOR THE DELAWARE BAY WHERE GUSTS
SHOULD MOSTLY STAY BELOW 25 KTS THRU TUESDAY.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN PLACE
FOR ALL OCEAN ZONES. WIND GUSTS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST WILL BE AROUND
25 KT WITH SEAS 5 TO 7 FEET. NO MARINE HEADLINES ON DELAWARE BAY AS
WIND GUSTS ARE CURRENTLY PROJECTED TO BE BELOW 25 KT.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE (40-50%) AS WINDS DIMINISH
BUT SEAS COULD LINGER NEAR 5 FEET.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE (40-50%) AS SEAS
HOVER NEAR 5 FEET AND WIND GUSTS COULD GET TO 25 KT AT TIMES OUT OF
THE EAST/SOUTHEAST.
CLIMATE
THE WARMTH IS FORECAST TO SURGE INTO OUR AREA DURING THE FIRST
HALF OF THIS WEEK, WITH IT PEAKING ON WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THE
CURRENT FORECAST, SOME INLAND AREAS COULD CHALLENGE THEIR
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY, APRIL 1ST.
LOCATION RECORD HIGH 4/1
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ACY ATLANTIC CITY, NJ80/1978
PHL PHILADELPHIA, PA81/1978
ILG WILMINGTON, DE 81/1978
ABE ALLENTOWN, PA84/1978
TTN TRENTON, NJ81/1986
RDG READING, PA82/1917
GED GEORGETOWN, DE80/1979
MPO MOUNT POCONO, PA81/1998
55N AC MARINA, NJ72/1955
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
DISCUSSION...HOEFLICH/RCM
AVIATION...HOEFLICH/RCM
MARINE...HOEFLICH/RCM
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