890
FXUS61 KPHI 140811
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
411 AM EDT THU MAY 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN CANCELLED.
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 06Z TAFS.
UPDATED NEAR TERM KEY MESSAGE.
KEY MESSAGES
1. A SLOW MOVING FRONT AND AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.
2. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TAKE OVER BEGINNING THIS WEEKEND,
WITH TEMPERATURES POTENTIALLY CLIMBING TOWARDS THE LOW 90S NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...A SLOW MOVING FRONT AND AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.
A COLD FRONT WHICH CROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT WILL LINGER NEAR
THE SHORE THIS MORNING BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE LATER. AN UPPER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL DEVELOP SOUTH/EAST
ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THE DAY. THIS WILL KEEP UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS FOR OUR AREA WITH MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN TODAY AND A
FEW SHOWERS AROUND.
THE LINGERING SHOWERS EARLY IN THE DAY WILL BE MOSTLY NEAR THE
COAST WITH SOME ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN THE
AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF NE PA AND NORTHERN NJ DUE TO THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW. IT WILL BE COOLER WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS
AROUND AND HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 60S.
KEY MESSAGE 2...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TAKE OVER BEGINNING
THIS WEEKEND, WITH TEMPERATURES POTENTIALLY CLIMBING TOWARDS THE
LOW 90S NEXT WEEK.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE EASTERN US THIS WEEKEND
AND INTO NEXT WEEK, BRINGING A PERIOD OF ABOVE NORMAL AND
SUMMER-LIKE TEMPERATURES. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC ANCHORS OFF THE COAST OF THE MID ATLANTIC.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW FOR SEVERAL DAYS AND
GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES FROM SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY OR
WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THE NBM HAS BEEN RUNNING A BIT WARM LATELY,
TEMPERATURES WERE LOWERED SLIGHTLY SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS
MOST OF THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE HAS HIGHS A FEW DEGREES LOWER
THAN WHAT THE NEWEST NBM HAD.
REGARDLESS, IT WILL BE QUITE WARM IN THE EXTENDED TO BORDERLINE
HOT. SATURDAY WILL FEATURE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S, WITH SUNDAY
GETTING INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO CLIMB
FOR MONDAY WITH MID TO UPPER 80S AND AN OUTSIDE SHOT AT 90.
TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE STRETCH WITH UPPER
80S AND LOW 90S CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED. TUESDAY COULD FLIRT WITH
HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND ADJACENT
COUNTIES, WHERE THE CURRENT THRESHOLD THROUGH JUNE IS A HEAT
INDEX OF 96 DEGREES F OR HIGHER, HOWEVER THIS IS LOOKING LESS
PROBABLE AS OF THIS MORNING'S UPDATE. THE HEAT LOOKS TO BREAK
EITHER WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY, DEPENDENT ON HOW QUICKLY A COLD
FRONT COMES IN DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
OVERALL THIS STRETCH LOOKS MOSTLY DRY. GUIDANCE IS NOW TRYING
TO HINT AT SOME DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THOUGH,
MAINLY ON SUNDAY AS A SHORTWAVE PASSES BY TO THE NORTH. DON'T
HAVE MORE THAN 15-20% POPS IN THOUGH AS FORCING LOOKS WEAK BUT
WE WILL HAVE A BETTER IDEA ONCE WE GET INTO RANGE OF THE CAMS.
AS MENTIONED EARLIER, SOMETIME WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK,
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND LIKELY BRING AN END TO THE
STRETCH OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL
LIKELY ACCOMPANY THAT FRONT IN SOME FORM OR FASHION, BUT IT'S
TOO EARLY TO SPECULATE ON SPECIFIC IMPACTS OR HAZARDS.
AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS...
THRU 12Z... MOSTLY VFR BUT MVFR IS POSSIBLE ACROSS NJ AS THE
SLOW MOVING AREA OF SHOWERS CONTINUES. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
MOSTLY. MEDIUM CONFID.
TODAY...VFR BKN SKY CONDITIONS MOST AREAS THRU THE DAY. THERE
MAY BE SOME LINGERING MVFR EARLY FOR KACY/KMIV. ALSO, CLOUDS AND
LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE FOR NORTH NJ AND INTO THE POCONOS THIS
MORNING. WINDS WILL INCREASE AFTER DAYBREAK AND EVENTUALLY
BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS.
MEDIUM CONFID.
TONIGHT... VFR EXPECTED. BKN CLOUDS EARLY THEN SCT CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS. MEDIUM/HIGH
CONFID.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER EXPECTED. 10-20% CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR STORM ON SUNDAY.
MARINE
A SLOW MOVING FRONT AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE
WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY. WINDS AND SEAS HAVE DECREASED OVERNIGHT
AND WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS. WINDS
WILL TURN MORE WEST TO NORTHWEST THIS MORNING AND A FEW GUSTS 15
TO 20 KTS ARE POSSIBLE. SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL BE 3 TO 4 FT
MUCH OF THE TIME. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THRU THE MORNING BUT
THEN DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...CHANCE (20-30%) OF SCA CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN WATERS
AS SEAS COULD NEAR 5 FEET.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...FITZSIMMONS/HOEFLICH/OHARA/STAARMANN
AVIATION...FITZSIMMONS/HOEFLICH/MJL/OHARA/STAARMANN
MARINE...FITZSIMMONS/HOEFLICH/MJL/OHARA/STAARMANN
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