771
FXUS61 KPHI 290645
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
245 AM EDT WED APR 29 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
RAINFALL TOTALS HAVE LOWERED A BIT. THE CHANCE FOR STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS HAS LOWERED.
KEY MESSAGES
1. LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTS WILL CROSS THE AREA
LATER TODAY AND INTO EARLY THURSDAY.
2. A STORM SYSTEM TRACKS CLOSE TO OUR AREA FROM THE SOUTH
SATURDAY, BRINGING A POTENTIAL FOR RAIN.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTS WILL CROSS
THE AREA LATER TODAY AND INTO EARLY THURSDAY.
A DEEPENING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH/CLOSED LOW CENTERED ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY WILL PIVOT EASTWARD THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS
WILL PROMOTE A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO FORM ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY TODAY AND MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL FOLLOW FOR THURSDAY MORNING.
RAINS WILL MOVE OUT AHEAD OF THE LOW TODAY AND CHANCES INCREASE
FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY. THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE FOR A TSTM
AS MILDER AND SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE AIR MOVES IN LATER TODAY ALONG WITH
THE LOW LEVEL JET AROUND 40KTS. THE CHANCES FOR ANY STRONG OR SEVERE
TSTMS IS LOW WITH CAPE VALUES REMAINING LOW WITH THE LIMITED SURFACE
HEATING TODAY. THE SPC HAS REDUCED THE AREAL COVERAGE OF THE
MARGINAL RISK AREA IN OUR CWA TODAY BUT IT REMAINS JUST SW OUR OUR
REGION.
OVERALL, STORM TOTAL RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN 0.25-0.75 INCHES
ACROSS OUR ENTIRE REGION. THESE TOTALS ARE LOWER COMPARED TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. IF AN EMBEDDED STRONGER CONVECTIVE CONTRIBUTION
MATERIALIZES THOUGH, THEN LOCALLY HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE
PROBABLE. THIS RAIN IS MUCH NEEDED GIVEN THE ONGOING LONGER TERM
DROUGHT CONDITIONS IN PLACE. THE SHOWERS RAPIDLY END EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT AND SURFACE LOW CLEARS OUR AREA, WITH A
GUSTY BREEZE OCCURRING DURING THURSDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A STORM SYSTEM TRACKS CLOSE TO OUR AREA FROM THE SOUTH
SATURDAY, BRINGING A POTENTIAL FOR RAIN.
AS A CLOSED LOW REMAINS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CANADA OVER THE WEEKEND,
A STRONGER SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO ROTATE THROUGH THE BASE OF IT
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE MID-ATLANTIC THEN OFFSHORE. THIS FEATURE
SHOULD SUPPORT SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT, HOWEVER THE MODEL GUIDANCE
VARIES ON THE PLACEMENT OF THIS LOW. SOME MODELS AND ENSEMBLES HAVE
THIS LOW STRONGER AND FARTHER TO THE NORTH, WHICH WOULD BRING A
SHIELD OF RAIN ACROSS MOST OF OUR AREA. SOME OTHER GUIDANCE,
INCLUDING THE GFS, ARE WEAKER AND FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE SURFACE
LOW. DESPITE THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE LOCATION/TRACK OF THE SURFACE
LOW, GIVEN THE SYNOPTIC SETUP SUGGESTS THAT WHATEVER SYSTEM OCCURS
WOULD TEND TO BE A QUICK MOVER. ALSO, GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF THE
CLOSED LOW, TEMPERATURES WILL BE CHILLY OVER THE WEEKEND (WELL BELOW
AVERAGE) WITH SATURDAY BEING THE COOLEST. THIS POTENTIAL SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED AS A MORE DEVELOPED AND FARTHER NORTH STORM
TRACK WOULD OFFER WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
TODAY... VFR CONDITIONS MOSTLY BUT HIGH END MVFR (FOR CIGS) EARLY
TODAY AT KRDG. THE VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THRU THE DAY WITH S
TO SE WINDS INCREASING TO 10-12 KTS THIS AFTERNOON. LOWERING CIGS
WITH SHOWERS MOVING W TO E ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
MEDIUM/HIGH CONFID.
TONIGHT... SUB-VFR WITH IFR POSSIBLE. SHOWERS WITH A SMALL
CHANCE FOR A TSTM. LEFT TSTMS OUT OF THE TAFS AT 06Z WITH CONFID
IN THEM OCCURRING LOW. IMPROVING CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LATE FOR
KRDG/KABE. LOW/MEDIUM CONFID.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH SOME LINGERING SHOWERS
EARLY, THEN VFR. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS UP TO 20-25 KNOTS.
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR. WEST-NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS
DURING THE DAY.
SATURDAY...A PERIOD OF SUB-VFR AND SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.
MARINE
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE
MAINLY SE 5 TO 10 KTS THIS MORNING THEN 10 TO 15 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WINDS TURN SW THEN NW BETWEEN
MIDNIGHT AND DAWN THU. LOW-END SCA GUSTS POSSIBLE, BUT NOT
CERTAIN. FAIR TODAY THEN SHOWERS WITH A CHANCE OF A TSTM THIS
EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...A PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE, MAINLY FOR SEAS AROUND 3-5 FEET.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...GORSE/MJL/OHARA
AVIATION...MJL/OHARA
MARINE...MJL/OHARA
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