645
FXUS61 KPHI 231120
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
620 AM EST SUN FEB 23 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WEAK
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA LATE TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE THEN
RETURNING ON WEDNESDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT THEN LOOKS TO
MOVE THROUGH ON THURSDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS SLIDING DEPARTING THIS MORNING, WHICH IS
RESULTING SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING OFFSHORE. THIS
GIVES WAY TO AT LEAST PART/MOST OF TODAY LOOKING MOSTLY SUNNY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL TODAY RESULTING IN A NICE DAY
WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL BE SEASONABLE FOR LATE
FEBRUARY, GETTING INTO THE 40S.
FOR TONIGHT, ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES IN, RESULTING IN MORE
HIGH CLOUDS. WHILE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT, CLOUDS WILL KEEP THINGS
A LITTLE BIT WARMER COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT. LOOKING AT LOWS IN
THE UPPER 20S/LOW 30S.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE ON MONDAY, RESULTING SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW SETTING UP. THIS WILL USHER IN WARMER AIR, PUSHING
TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 40S/LOW 50S, SOME OF THE WARMER
TEMPERATURES WE'VE HAD IN A WHILE AS A STRETCH OF ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BEGINS.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING EAST OFF THE COAST SHOULD PROMOTE
INCREASED SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW MONDAY NIGHT. COMBINED WITH
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WEAK COLD FRONT,
AND THIS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS MOSTLY ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT, WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 30S EXPECTED.
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT CROSSES THE REGION ON TUESDAY, WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY NORTHWEST OF I-95. TEMPS SHOULD
RISE WELL INTO THE 50S FOR MOST OF THE AREA, WITH SOME SPOTTY
60S LIKELY ESPECIALLY IN THE DELMARVA, THOUGH THE ABUNDANT CLOUD
COVER MAY ACT TO HOLD TEMPS DOWN SLIGHTLY.
CLOUDS CLEAR BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT, AND WITH SOME
RADIATIONAL COOLING AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN, LOWS
LIKELY TOUCH FREEZING IN MOST RURAL AREAS, THOUGH A REALLY COLD
NIGHT STILL LOOKS UNLIKELY.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
WEDNESDAY STILL LOOKS DRY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL
AGAIN, BRIEFLY. LATEST GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED A LITTLE UPWARD WITH
TEMPS, PERHAPS DUE TO GREATER SUNSHINE, SO ITS NOW A TOSS-UP AS
TO WHETHER TUESDAY, WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY IS THE WARMEST DAY OF
THIS FORECAST PERIOD. 50S WILL BE WIDESPREAD AGAIN WITH SPOTTY
60S POSSIBLE, AGAIN MAINLY DELMARVA.
CLOUDS INCREASE LATE IN THE DAY AND AT NIGHT WEDNESDAY, AND WITH
A STRONGER SOUTHERLY FLOW RESUMING AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT,
LOW TEMPS LIKELY STAY NOTABLY MILD, WITH MUCH OF THE AREA LIKELY
DROPPING NO LOWER THAN 40. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL INCREASE
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST LATE AT NIGHT, BUT ONLY A SLIGHT
CHANCE AT THIS TIME.
BEST CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST PERIOD REMAINS THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY EVENING AS THE STRONGER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA.
BEST ODDS REMAIN AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS, WITH A MILD DAY
BEFORE THEN.
BETTER SIGNAL OF DRY WEATHER FOR FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY
BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT. TEMPS ONLY DROP ABOUT 5 DEGREES OR
SO FROM THURSDAY, SO NOT A HUGE CHANGE TO BE SURE... JUST MORE
SEASONABLE.
ANOTHER SYSTEM PASSES MAINLY TO THE NORTH FOR THE START OF NEXT
WEEKEND (AND MARCH), WITH SOME CLOUDS BUT NOT MUCH PRECIP.
TEMPS PRETTY SIMILAR TO FRIDAY.
AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
TODAY...VFR. WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KT. HIGH
CONFIDENCE.
TONIGHT...VFR. WINDS GOING LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH PERIODS OF
CALM LIKELY. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MONDAY...VFR. WINDS PICKING UP OUT OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
AROUND 10 KT. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...
VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AT ALL
TERMINALS. SUB-VFR IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AS A FRONT BRINGS THE
POTENTIAL OF SHOWERS WITH IT.
MARINE
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ON THE WATERS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. WINDS
OUT OF THE WEST/SOUTHWEST AROUND 5-15 KT AND SEAS 1 TO 3 FEET.
OUTLOOK...
CONDITIONS SHOULD MOSTLY STAY BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA ON ALL WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT THEN MAY BRING SCA-LEVEL WIND GUSTS AND SEAS ON THE
OCEAN WATERS FOR THURSDAY.
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...HOEFLICH/RCM
NEAR TERM...HOEFLICH
SHORT TERM...RCM
LONG TERM...RCM
AVIATION...HOEFLICH/RCM
MARINE...HOEFLICH/RCM
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