003
FXUS61 KPHI 120358
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1158 PM EDT THU JUN 11 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 317 HAS BEEN CANCELED OR EXPIRED FOR
THE ENTIRE AREA AS OF MIDNIGHT.
KEY MESSAGES
1. THERE IS A RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND FRIDAY.
2. DANGEROUS HEAT (POTENTIALLY RECORD HEAT) AND HUMIDITY FOR
MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY, THEN MUCH LESS HUMID OVER THE
WEEKEND.
3. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL RETURN AS A COLD FRONT
PASSES THROUGH LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, THEN TURNING MORE
SEASONABLE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
4. WIDESPREAD MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL DEVELOP WITH THE
EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ALONG THE ATLANTIC
COAST, DELAWARE BAY, AND ON THE TIDAL DELAWARE RIVER AND ITS
TRIBUTARIES.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...THERE IS A RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON
FRIDAY.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 317 HAS BEEN CANCELED OR EXPIRED FOR
THE ENTIRE AREA AS OF MIDNIGHT. NO ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TONIGHT.
THE PATTERN IN PLACE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SOME ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY, MAINLY
DURING EACH LATE AFTERNOON TO EVENING PERIOD. BETTER SYNOPTIC
FORCING WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY WITH A COLD FRONT.
ON FRIDAY, THE REGION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN FEELING THE
INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE WEST OF THE REGION,
IN ADDITION TO A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE ARRIVING FROM THE WEST.
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD FOCUS NEAR AND AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT, AND WITH STRONG DESTABILIZATION AND SLIGHTLY BETTER
WIND FIELDS ALOFT, A SEVERE THREAT WILL ONCE AGAIN BE PRESENT.
THE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE COULD BE ONCE AGAIN ENHANCED BY A
CONVECTIVELY INDUCED SHORTWAVE FROM NEAR THE GREAT LAKES OR
UPPER OHIO VALLEY. THIS EVOLUTION IS LESS CERTAIN, HOWEVER OUR
ENTIRE AREA IS HIGHLIGHTED IN A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OUT OF 5)
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. DAMAGING WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE THE
MAIN THREAT AS STORMS MAY TEND TO CLUSTER OR EVOLVE INTO ONE OR
MORE SHORT LINES WITH SOME BOWING.
KEY MESSAGE 2...DANGEROUS HEAT (POTENTIALLY RECORD HEAT) AND
HUMIDITY FOR MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY, THEN MUCH LESS
HUMID OVER THE WEEKEND.
A MID-LEVEL RIDGE SLIDES ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST
THROUGH FRIDAY. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED
OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO DIRECT A HOT
AND HUMID AIRMASS ACROSS OUR AREA.
DANGEROUS HEAT IS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF OUR REGION THROUGH
FRIDAY, WITH EVEN SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES POTENTIALLY
GETTING CHALLENGED. HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH TODAY AND FRIDAY ARE
FORECAST TO PEAK INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA, THOUGH HIGHS MAY BE SLIGHTLY WARMER FRIDAY COMPARED TO
TODAY. DEWPOINTS WILL START OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 70S, BUT WITH
AFTERNOON HEATING AND MIXING, THESE SHOULD MIX DOWN TO THE UPPER
60S AND LOW 70S. THIS STILL RESULTS IN PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES
OF 95 TO 105 DEGREES ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA, OUTSIDE OF
THE SOUTHERN POCONOS. THIS LEVEL OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY CAN
BECOME DANGEROUS QUICKLY FOR SENSITIVE INDIVIDUALS AND THOSE
OUTDOORS FOR EXTENDED PERIODS OF TIME. A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS
IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY FOR AREAS WHERE THE HEAT INDEX CRITERIA
STARTS AT 96F AND 100F.
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE
FRIDAY, WHICH WILL KNOCK THE TEMPERATURES AND ESPECIALLY THE
DEWPOINTS DOWN SEVERAL DEGREES. THOUGH IT WILL STILL BE HOT WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S OVER THE WEEKEND,
DEWPOINTS WILL RETURN TO MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE LEVELS (INTO THE
50S IN SOME AREAS SATURDAY) AND THIS MINIMIZES THE RISK FOR
ADDITIONAL HEAT RELATED ADVISORIES.
KEY MESSAGE 3...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL RETURN AS A
COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, THEN
TURNING MORE SEASONABLE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL GIVE US ANOTHER
ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, HOWEVER THIS ONE
WILL BE DIFFERENT THAN THE ACTIVITY WE'RE EXPERIENCING THIS
WEEK. THERE LOOKS TO BE PLENTY OF SYNOPTIC FORCING WITH MORE
SHEAR PRESENT. ALSO, THERE WILL BE INSTABILITY AND SUPPORTIVE
LAPSE RATES. TIMING VARIATIONS REMAIN AMONG GUIDANCE FOR THE
COLD FRONT, BUT THE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ARE SUPPORTIVE OF
CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. GIVEN THESE
ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS, THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS
OUTLOOKED US FOR SEVERE WEATHER SUNDAY, PARTICULARLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. PWAT VALUES WILL ALSO RECOVER FOR
SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR SOME HEAVY RAIN WITH THE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY.
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL USHER IN A MUCH MORE SEASONABLE
AIRMASS THAT WILL STICK AROUND THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.
DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND LOW 60S WILL MAKE FOR MUCH MORE
PLEASANT CONDITIONS. CAN'T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS,
BUT OVERALL THE CHANCES FOR RAIN LOOK LOW DURING THIS PERIOD.
KEY MESSAGE 4...WIDESPREAD MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL DEVELOP
WITH THE EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COAST, DELAWARE BAY, AND ON THE TIDAL DELAWARE RIVER
AND ITS TRIBUTARIES.
A NEW MOON THIS WEEKEND WILL RESULT IN HIGHER THAN NORMAL
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES. ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL GENERALLY BE 1/2
FOOT LESS THAN MINOR COASTAL FLOODING THRESHOLDS, AND TIDAL
DEPARTURE S WILL BE AROUND 1 FOOT OR SO. THIS WILL RESULT IN
WIDESPREAD MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WITH THE EVENING AND NIGHTTIME
HIGH TIDE CYCLES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ON THE ATLANTIC COAST,
DELAWARE BAY, AND THE TIDAL DELAWARE RIVER AND ITS TRIBUTARIES.
THE HIGHER OF THE TWO WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT. TIDAL FLOODING IS
NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED ALONG THE EASTERN SHORE OF CHESAPEAKE
BAY.
AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
TONIGHT...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD END BY
06Z EVERYWHERE, THEN VFR. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME PATCHY FOG LATE.
WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 KTS OR LESS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
FRIDAY...PREVAILING VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. BRIEF
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE, WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, MOST LIKELY AFTER 18-21Z. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
PREVAILING VFR THROUGH THE DAY, MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THUNDER
TIMING.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE WITH A CHANCE FOR LINGERING
SHOWERS AND STORMS.
SATURDAY...VFR. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
SUNDAY...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITH THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS.
MONDAY...VFR. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
TUESDAY...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITH THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS.
MARINE
NO PREVAILING MARINE HAZARDS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. A
SOUTHWEST WIND AT 10 KT WITH GUSTS 15-20 KT AND SEAS OF 3-4
FEET. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY IMPACT THE NEARSHORE WATERS
AND DELAWARE BAY DURING THIS EVENING AND AGAIN FRIDAY EVENING,
WITH BRIEF STRONG WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...NO MARINE HAZARDS ANTICIPATED. WINDS WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN BETWEEN 5-15 KT. SEAS GENERALLY AROUND 2-3 FEET. FAIR
WEATHER EXPECTED.
SUNDAY...A BRIEF PERIOD OF MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH WIND
GUSTS NEAR 25 KT.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...NO MARINE HAZARDS ANTICIPATED WITH WINDS
5-10 KT AND SEAS 2-3 FEET.
RIP CURRENTS...
FOR FRIDAY, A MEDIUM PERIOD 8 SECOND SWELL, OFFSHORE WINDS, AND
BREAKING WAVES 2 FEET OR LESS WILL RESULT IN A LOW RISK FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE JERSEY SHORE AND DELAWARE
BEACHES.
ON SATURDAY, CONDITIONS WILL BE RELATIVELY SIMILAR, THOUGH THE
DOMINANT PERIOD WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10 TO 11 SECONDS.
HOWEVER, WITH WINDS OFFSHORE, AND BREAKING WAVES AGAIN 2 FEET OR
LESS, THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH ENERGY IN THE SURF ZONES. THIS
WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER DAY OF A LOW RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
RIP CURRENTS.
OCEAN WATER TEMPERATURES ARE MOSTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
FOR SPECIFIC BEACH FORECASTS, VISIT WEATHER.GOV/BEACH/PHI
CLIMATE
A VERY HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL OVERSPREAD OUR AREA THROUGH
FRIDAY. SOME RECORD HIGH AND WARMEST LOW TEMPERATURES COULD BE
CHALLENGED THURSDAY AND/OR FRIDAY.
LOCATION 6/11 RECORD HIGHS/YEAR
MOUNT POCONO 91/1911
ALLENTOWN 94/1984
READING 98/1911
PHILADELPHIA 95/1986
TRENTON 96/1911
ATLANTIC CITY AIRPORT 97/1984
ATLANTIC CITY MARINA 91/1959
WILMINGTON 95/1973
GEORGETOWN 95/1947 & 1959
LOCATION 6/12 RECORD WARMEST LOW/YEAR
MOUNT POCONO 69/2005
ALLENTOWN 70/1942
READING 75/1958
PHILADELPHIA 75/2015
TRENTON 72/2015 & 2017
ATLANTIC CITY AIRPORT 73/1973 & 2015
ATLANTIC CITY MARINA 79/2016
WILMINGTON 73/2015
GEORGETOWN 73/1947, 1973, 1986, & 2017
LOCATION 6/12 RECORD HIGHS/YEAR
MOUNT POCONO 87/1967
ALLENTOWN 92/1949, 1961, 2015, & 2017
READING 95/1984
PHILADELPHIA 95/1947 & 2015
TRENTON 94/1933
ATLANTIC CITY AIRPORT 94/2017
ATLANTIC CITY MARINA 93/1880 & 1914
WILMINGTON 96/1933
GEORGETOWN 95/2017
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR PAZ060>062-070-071-
101>106.
NJ...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR NJZ001-007>010-012>015-
017>020-027.
DE...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR DEZ001.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...GUZZO/MJL/MPS/STAARMANN
AVIATION...AKL/MJL
MARINE...AKL/HOEFLICH
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