080
FXUS61 KPHI 041444 CCA
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1044 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED FOR THE 12Z TAFS.
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS EXTENDED THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOR ALL
OCEAN ZONES. A NEW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR DELAWARE
BAY FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
ADDED A BRIEF DISCUSSION ON THE POTENTIAL SHOWER THREAT THIS
WEEKEND.
KEY MESSAGES
1. THERE IS A LIMITED RISK FOR FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY.
2. MULTIPLE SYSTEMS BRING RAIN TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM COULD BRING SOME SHOWERS ON
SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...THERE IS A LIMITED RISK FOR FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS TODAY.
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST SLIDES OUT TO
SEA. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT SETS UP OVER THE NORTHEAST, AND A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASES AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS, AND WINDS INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 MPH
WITH 20 TO 25 MPH GUSTS. WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE, EFFECTIVE
MIXING WILL ALLOW DEW POINTS TO DROP INTO THE 30S. WITH HIGHS IN
THE 70S, MINRH VALUES WILL BE AS LOW AS 25 TO 30 PERCENT.
BASED ON COORDINATION WITH STATE FIRE WEATHER PARTNERS, A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED FOR AT LEAST DELAWARE
AND THE EASTERN SHORES OF MARYLAND. YET TO BE DETERMINED IF ONE
WILL BE ISSUED FOR PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW JERSEY, BUT RECENT
RAINFALL AND GREENUP ARE LIMITING FACTORS. LESS RAIN FELL IN
DELMARVA, HENCE THE NEED FOR A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT THERE.
KEY MESSAGE 2...MULTIPLE SYSTEMS BRING RAIN TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM COULD BRING SOME SHOWERS ON
SATURDAY.
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTS OFFSHORE TUESDAY, BUT THE CONTINUED
INFLUENCE FROM THE HIGH WILL KEEP MOST OF THE AREA ON THE DRIER
SIDE. ALSO DURING THIS TIMEFRAME, THERE WILL BE A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WELL TO THE NORTH IN CANADA WITH A COLD FRONT SINKING
SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. OUR NW AREAS HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO SEE AN ISOLATED SHOWER (20-30%) LATE TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. THE BULK OF THE RAIN WILL MOVE IN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS THE
COLD FRONT SINKS SOUTHEAST INTO OUR AREA. THIS COLD FRONT THEN
STALLS ACROSS THE REGION INTO THURSDAY WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE FRONT LEADING TO MORE RAIN ON THURSDAY.
THE TREND OF RELATIVELY LOW INSTABILITY AND LIMITED TO ZERO
SEVERE/FLOODING THREAT HAS CONTINUED WITH THE LATEST FORECAST
GUIDANCE. OVERALL, THIS WILL BE MORE BENEFICIAL RAIN FOR THE AREA
WITH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE.
THE NBM PROBABILITY OF TOTAL RAINFALL FROM THESE TWO SYSTEMS IS
ABOUT 30-50% FOR 1 INCH OR MORE FOR ARES NEAR AND NW OF THE I-95
CORRIDOR. FOR AREAS SOUTHEAST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR, IT IS 15 TO 30%
FOR 1 INCH OR MORE OF RAINFALL. GIVEN HOW DRY WE HAVE BEEN, FLOODING
CONCERNS APPEAR TO BE MINIMAL WITH THIS LARGELY BEING BENEFICIAL
RAINFALL FOR THE AREA.
FOR SATURDAY, A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION,
POTENTIALLY PRODUCING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS. THIS APPEARS TO BE NOTHING
MORE THAN A POTENTIAL WEEKEND SPOILER WITH NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
TODAY...VFR. SW WINDS 10 TO 15 KT WITH 20 TO 25 KT GUSTS MOST
OF THE DAY. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
TONIGHT...VFR. S WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...PRIMARILY VFR. SOME SHOWERS
POSSIBLE NORTH AND WEST OF THE I-95 TERMINALS ON TUESDAY NIGHT.
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS 20-25 KT.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH
PERIODS OF RAIN, AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM, AND LOW CLOUDS.
SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS AROUND 20-25 KT ON WEDNESDAY.
THURSDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS IMPROVING BUT LINGERING
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE (30-40%).
FRIDAY...VFR. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER.
MARINE
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY TO 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS
UP TO 25 KT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THE STRONGEST WIND GUSTS OF 25 KT OR HIGHER WILL BE NORTH
OF GREAT EGG INLET, NJ, WHERE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN JUST BELOW SCA CRITERIA
ELSEWHERE.
WINDS INCREASE TONIGHT, SO THE SCA FOR THE OCEAN WATERS SOUTH
OF GREAT EGG INLET NOW GOES IN EFFECT AT 6 PM, AND AN SCA IS IN
EFFECT FOR ALL OCEAN WATERS TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN PLACE
FOR ALL MARINE ZONES. WIND GUSTS AROUND 20-30 KT OUT OF THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AND SEAS 4 TO 7 FEET.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...SCA CONDITIONS COULD LINGER
AS WINDS DECLINE BUT SEAS COULD NEAR 5 FEET.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES EXPECTED.
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM TUESDAY TO 2 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
FOR ANZ430-431.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ450>452.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT
WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ453>455.
DISCUSSION...DEAL/HOEFLICH/MPS
AVIATION...HOEFLICH/MPS
MARINE...HOEFLICH/MPS
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