330  
FXUS61 KPHI 021034  
AFDPHI  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ  
634 AM EDT WED JUL 2 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL OUT ACROSS THE AREA TODAY, THEN MOVE  
OFFSHORE AND TO THE SOUTH ON THURSDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL  
BUILD INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY AND REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH  
MUCH OF THE WEEKEND, PROVIDING SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND  
TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS. WARMER, MORE HUMID, AND UNSETTLED  
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
 
 
THE COLD FRONT HAS SLOWED DOWN SUBSTANTIALLY AND HAS ESSENTIALLY  
STALLED OVER THE I-95 CORRIDOR AS OF EARLY THIS MORNING. RESIDUAL  
SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH A FEW ISOLATED  
RUMBLES OF THUNDER.  
 
AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE DAY, THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO  
SLOWLY CRAWL EAST, SO WITH TIME, SHOWERS WILL EVER SO SLOWLY  
MAKE THEIR WAY TOWARD/OFF THE COAST. MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS  
THAT THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE LOCATED OFFSHORE BY  
MIDDAY. HOWEVER, WITH THE FRONT NOT ENTIRELY THROUGH THE AREA,  
AREAS EAST OF THE FRONT WILL STILL HAVE OPPRESSIVE DEW POINTS  
IN THE LOW TO MID 70S WITH PWATS NEAR 2 INCHES. SO, WITH THE  
FRONT VIRTUALLY OVERHEAD, ANOTHER ROUND OF EXTREMELY ISOLATED POP-  
UP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. ANY  
STORM SUB-SEVERE, HOWEVER WITH THE SEASONABLY HIGH PWATS, HEAVY  
DOWNPOURS ARE PLAUSIBLE. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY OVERCAST THIS  
MORNING, WITH GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN THE AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO  
EAST. HIGH TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 80S WITH THE WARMEST  
TEMPERATURES FOUND NORTH AND WEST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR WHICH  
WILL OBSERVE EARLIER CLEARING.  
 
ANY THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL CEASE BY SUNSET. SKIES WILL BECOME  
MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S FOR MOST,  
WITH LOW 70S IN/AROUND THE IMMEDIATE URBAN HEAT ISLAND AND  
ALONG THE COAST.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
 
 
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY, THEN DRY, SEASONABLE,  
AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE INDEPENDENCE DAY  
HOLIDAY.  
 
AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY  
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY STRENGTHENING RIDGING FRIDAY  
AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE ON  
THURSDAY, WHICH IS ANTICIPATED TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY SOME  
ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY NORTHWEST OF  
I-95. THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN  
THE COOLING MID LEVELS AND STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES,  
HOWEVER WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.  
LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL POSSIBLE WITH THESE  
STORMS THURSDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER  
80S, THOUGH WE SHOULD FINALLY SEE DEW POINTS MIXING OUT TO  
RELIEVE US FROM THE PERSISTENT HUMIDITY WE'VE BEEN EXPERIENCING  
AS OF LATE. ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH INTO THE  
EVENING AS THE FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S.  
 
FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY, A RATHER PLEASANT AND DRY EARLY SUMMER  
DAY IS FORECAST. THE STRENGTHENING RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION WILL  
INHIBIT ANY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. THE POST FRONTAL REGIME WILL  
TRANSLATE TO TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL (HIGHS IN  
THE LOW TO MID 80S) AND DEWPOINTS MIXING OUT QUITE NICELY INTO  
THE 50S UNDER SUNNY SKIES. A GREAT DAY FOR ANY OUTDOOR HOLIDAY  
FESTIVITIES! FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COOLEST NIGHT OF THE  
STRETCH, WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S AND DRY  
AIR MAKING FOR A VERY PLEASANT EARLY SUMMER NIGHT.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
 
 
DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE  
WEEKEND, HOWEVER AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE  
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  
 
THE BROAD RIDGING WILL DOMINATE THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND,  
WHICH WILL KEEP CONVECTION SURPRESSED AND TEMPERATURES NEAR  
NORMAL. SATURDAY WILL BE A GUARANTIED DRY DAY, AND ANOTHER VERY  
PLEASANT ONE SIMILAR TO FRIDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES  
OVERHEAD. HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN THE MID 80S UNDER SUNNY  
SKIES AND DEWPOINTS MIXING OUT NICELY ONCE AGAIN TO PROVIDE US  
WITH SOME LOW HUMIDITY. BY SUNDAY, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED  
OFFSHORE, RESULTING IN SOME RETURN FLOW AND THUS A SLIGHT  
INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY LEVELS COMPARED TO THE  
PREVIOUS DAYS. HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES.  
LOWS IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70 DEGREES BOTH NIGHTS.  
 
THE RETURN FLOW BEGINNING SUNDAY WILL OPEN A WINDOW FOR SOME  
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BY THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS,  
MAINLY NORTHWEST OF I-95 WHERE SOME UPPER DIFFLUENCE WILL BEGIN  
TO INFLUENCE THE AREA. BY AND LARGE, MOST AREAS SHOULD REMAIN  
DRY THOUGH.  
 
RETURN FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS UPPER RIDGING  
SHIFTS OUT TO SEA AND SOME TROUGHING DEVELOPS NEAR THE GREAT  
LAKES. THIS WILL RESULT IN MORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS DEVELOPING  
AGAIN, WITH DAILY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS. ANY SEVERE THREATS REMAIN TO BE SEEN. EXPECT  
TEMPERATURES TO START TRENDING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL (HIGHS NEAR  
90 DEGREES AND LOWS NEAR 70 DEGREES) WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY  
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
 
 
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,  
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.  
 
TODAY...POSSIBLY CIGS/VSBY RESTRICTIONS LINGERING AT KACY/KMIV  
THROUGH 14/15Z WITH VCTS, OTHERWISE, VFR AT ALL REMAINING  
TERMINALS. AFTER 15Z, ALL TERMINALS SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH  
THE DAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IN THE  
AFTERNOON, HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE AT  
ANY TERMINAL AT THIS TIME. WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5-8 KT.  
MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  
 
TONIGHT...VFR/SKC WITH POTENTIALLY A FEW HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES. LIGHT  
WINDS FAVORING A WESTERLY COMPONENT AROUND 5 KT OR LESS. HIGH  
CONFIDENCE.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
 
THURSDAY...VFR. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.  
 
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER.  
 
SUNDAY...VFR. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE NEAR ABE/RDG.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10-15 KT THIS MORNING, WILL SETTLE OUT  
OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AROUND 5-10 KT THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS  
WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO WEST-NORTHWEST TONIGHT, WHILE REMAINING  
AROUND 5-10 KT. SEAS OF 2-4 FEET. OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, BEFORE FAIR  
WEATHER RETURNS TONIGHT.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
 
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...NO MARINE HAZARDS EXPECTED.  
 
RIP CURRENTS...  
 
FOR TODAY, WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5-10 MPH WITH BREAKING  
WAVE HEIGHTS OF 1-3 FEET. THERE REMAINS A 2-3 FOOT, 7-9 SECOND  
SSE SWELL THAT WILL PROPAGATE TOWARDS THE NJ/DE COASTLINE. AS A  
RESULT, HAVE MAINTAINED A MODERATE RISK FOR DANGEROUS RIP  
CURRENTS FOR ALL BEACHES.  
 
FOR THURSDAY, SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5-10 MPH WITH  
BREAKING WAVE HEIGHTS OF 1-2 FEET. THE RESIDUAL SSE SWELL WILL  
LOWER TO 1-2 FEET AND SHORTEN TO 6-8 SECONDS. AS A RESULT, HAVE  
MAINTAINED A LOW RISK FOR DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS FOR ALL  
BEACHES.  
 
FOR SPECIFIC BEACH FORECASTS, VISIT WEATHER.GOV/BEACH/PHI  
 

 
   
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
PA...NONE.  
NJ...NONE.  
DE...NONE.  
MD...NONE.  
MARINE...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
SYNOPSIS...DESILVA/STAARMANN  
NEAR TERM...DESILVA/GORSE/MJL  
SHORT TERM...STAARMANN  
LONG TERM...STAARMANN  
AVIATION...DESILVA/STAARMANN  
MARINE...DESILVA/STAARMANN  
 
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