032
FXUS61 KPHI 151728
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
128 PM EDT FRI MAY 15 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1. FOLLOWING A PERIOD OF SEASONABLE CONDITIONS TODAY, ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES TAKE OVER THIS WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S BEGINNING SUNDAY THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
2. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, ALONG WITH
MODERATING TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL BY THE END OF NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...FOLLOWING A PERIOD OF SEASONABLE CONDITIONS
TODAY, ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TAKE OVER THIS WEEKEND. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S BEGINNING
SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE AREA REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA TODAY BUT
MOVES AWAY TONIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATER
TONIGHT. THESE SYSTEMS WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY THIS
MORNING THEN MORE SUNSHINE EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON. IT'LL
REMAIN SEASONABLY COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S
ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH WITH
SOME GUSTS 20 TO 25 MPH.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE EASTERN US THIS WEEKEND
AND INTO NEXT WEEK, BRINGING A PERIOD OF ABOVE NORMAL AND
SUMMER-LIKE TEMPERATURES. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC ANCHORS OFF THE COAST OF THE MID ATLANTIC.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A WARM SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FOR
SEVERAL DAYS AND GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES FROM SATURDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY.
SATURDAY WILL FEATURE HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S
WITH HIGHS SUNDAY GETTING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S INLAND.
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IT WILL GENERALLY BE A GOOD 5-10
DEGREES COOLER.
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO CLIMB FOR MONDAY WITH MID TO UPPER 80S
FOR MANY AREAS, AND LOW 90S OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN PA, INLAND
SOUTHERN NJ, AND DELMARVA. TUESDAY AND POTENTIALLY WEDNESDAY
COULD SEE SOME AREAS INLAND GETTING INTO THE MID 90S BUT
CONFIDENCE ON SPECIFIC DETAILS BECOMES A BIT LOWER BY THIS TIME.
THE HEAT LOOKS TO BREAK BY THURSDAY. IN TERMS OF OVERALL HEAT
IMPACTS, THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS THE URBAN CORRIDOR FLIRTING
WITH HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA BY NEXT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, BUT
THAT SAID, THIS PARTICULAR SETUP DOESN'T LOOK EXCEPTIONALLY
FAVORABLE FOR BOTH VERY HIGH HEAT AND HUMIDITY. THROUGH TUESDAY,
MIXING SHOULD KEEP DEWPOINTS FROM GETTING TOO HIGH.
EVAPOTRANSPIRATION WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO ONGOING DROUGHT AND
OCEAN TEMPERATURES REMAIN COOL. LONG STORY SHORT, IT IS STILL
QUITE EARLY IN THE SEASON FOR HIGH DEWPOINTS TO COMBINE WITH
HIGH HEAT. BY THE TIME THESE NUMBERS CREEP UP BY WEDNESDAY,
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS/STORMS MAY HELP KNOCK TEMPERATURES DOWN SOME.
IN ANY CASE, WE'LL BE GETTING CLOSE TO RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE
TERRITORY MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE CLOSER TO NORMAL BY LATE NEXT WEEK
FOLLOWING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE WEDNESDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A COLD FRONT WILL BRING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY,
ALONG WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL BY THE END
OF NEXT WEEK.
OVERALL, THE NEXT 5 DAYS LOOK MOSTLY DRY, BUT CAN'T RULE OUT
SOME DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY ON SUNDAY.
POPS SUNDAY ARE MAINLY 10-20% AS FORCING LOOKS WEAK AND MID
LEVELS ARE DRY. COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION FOCUSED NEAR
SURFACE FORCING MECHANISMS, SUCH AS HIGHER TERRAIN AND THE SEA
BREEZE. SURFACE FLOW WILL BE WESTERLY INLAND, BUT SOUTHERLY NEAR
THE COAST, SO THIS CONVERGENCE ZONE COULD BE SOMETHING TO HELP
CONVECTION INITIATE. WE WILL HAVE A BETTER IDEA ONCE WE GET
INTO RANGE OF THE CAMS.
AS MENTIONED EARLIER, A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND LIKELY
BRING AN END TO THE STRETCH OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY
LATE NEXT WEDNESDAY. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY
THAT FRONT IN SOME FORM OR FASHION, BUT IT'S TOO EARLY TO
SPECULATE ON SPECIFIC IMPACTS OR HAZARDS. THE FRONT COULD LINGER
NEARBY INTO THURSDAY BRINGING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
REST OF TODAY...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
5-10 KNOTS, WITH GUSTS 15-20 KNOTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
TONIGHT...VFR EXPECTED. WINDS DIMINISH AND BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE MOST PLACES THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. HIGH
CONFIDENCE.
SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST 5-10 KNOTS, WITH GUSTS 15-20 KNOTS. HIGH
CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...VFR PREVAILING WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER EXPECTED. 10-20% CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR STORM ON SUNDAY.
MARINE
WINDS AND SEAS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS TODAY AND
TONIGHT. FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH SEAS ON THE OCEAN MOSTLY
3 TO 4 FT.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS IS LIKELY (60 % CHANCE) LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT AS SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 15 TO 20 GUSTING 20
TO 25 KNOTS. 20% CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM NEARSHORE ON
SUNDAY.
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...NO MARINE HAZARDS EXPECTED. FAIR
WEATHER.
RIP CURRENTS...
THE RIP CURRENT FORECAST FOR BOTH DELAWARE AND NEW JERSEY IS
MODERATE TODAY.
WHILE THERE IS AN ONSHORE 3-4 FEET/10-11 SECOND PERIOD SWELL
OVER THE OCEAN, THERE IS ALSO AN OFFSHORE WIND TODAY AROUND
10-15 KNOTS. THIS SHOULD COUNTER ACT EACH OTHER AND LEAD TO A
MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY.
THE RIP CURRENT FORECAST FOR BOTH DELAWARE AND NEW JERSEY IS
MODERATE ON SATURDAY.
THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE AN ONSHORE 3-4 FEET/10-11 SECOND
PERIOD SWELL OVER THE OCEAN, BUT WINDS WILL SHIFT TO MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE IN SPEED LATE IN THE DAY AROUND 10-15
KNOTS. WHILE THE FORECAST IS MODERATE FOR SATURDAY, WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FORECAST IN CASE WE NEED TO UPGRADE TO
HIGH.THRU 12Z... VFR. BKN OR OVC LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE
AREA. NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS. HIGH CONFID.
TODAY... VFR. MOSTLY BKN LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE. THEY
MAY THIN SOME DELMARVA/SE NJ THIS AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS 10
TO 12 KNOTS WITH GUSTS 20 TO 24 KTS AFTER MID-MORNING.
MEDIUM/HIGH CONFID.
TONIGHT... VFR. WINDS BECOMING LIGHT FROM THE WEST TO
NORTHWEST. HIGH CONFID.
FOR SPECIFIC BEACH FORECASTS, VISIT WEATHER.GOV/BEACH/PHI
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...FITZSIMMONS/OHARA/STAARMANN
AVIATION...ROBERTSON/STAARMANN
MARINE...FITZSIMMONS/OHARA/STAARMANN
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