189
FXUS61 KPHI 150048
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
848 PM EDT TUE APR 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM INTO THE
EVENING.
KEY MESSAGES
1. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING WHICH MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS
NORTH AND WEST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. ANOTHER THREAT FOR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE LATER WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
2. POTENTIALLY RECORD BREAKING WARMTH IS POSSIBLE THIS WEEK WITH
VERY WARM AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUING THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1....ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS
NORTH AND WEST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. ANOTHER THREAT FOR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE LATER WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
A REMNANT MCS THAT WAS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES EARLIER HAS
WEAKENED WHILE CROSSING THROUGH PENNSYLVANIA. STILL, THE DIURNAL
HEATING FROM EARLIER HAS CREATED NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH HAVE MOVES ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL PA EARLIER
THIS EVENING. WHILE THE RAINS HAVE STARTED TO WEAKEN, WE HAVE
UPPED POPS A BIT FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING AND ADDED A CHANCES
FOR A THUNDERSTORMS TOO. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW
HOWEVER, JUST A FEW DOWNPOURS AND SOME GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE.
ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS
AND CONCLUDE OVERNIGHT.
FOR WEDNESDAY, THERE IS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER
ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN PA AND NORTHWEST NJ WHERE A MARGINAL RISK
IS NOW IN PLACE FOR SOME ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.
HOWEVER, IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THIS THREAT IS HIGHLY CONDITIONAL
DEPENDING ON HOW CONVECTION EVOLVES FROM UPSTREAM AND WITH ANY
REMAINING BOUNDARIES. MUCH OF THE LATEST AVAILABLE FORECAST GUIDANCE
DEPICTS A MCS TRACKING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT BEFORE
FIZZLING NEAR THE APPALACHIAN REGION. SIMILAR TO TODAY, DIURNAL
HEATING WILL LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO SOME REINVIGORATING OF CONVECTION
IN THE AFTERNOON. FOR NOW, THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS SIMILAR
TODAY, BUT WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON HOW UPSTREAM CONVECTION
EVOLVES. FORECAST GUIDANCE NOTORIOUSLY STRUGGLES WITH THESE TYPES OF
SCENARIOS, SO CONFIDENCE ON WEDNESDAY'S THREAT IS LOW.
KEY MESSAGE 2...POTENTIALLY RECORD BREAKING WARMTH IS POSSIBLE THIS
WEEK WITH VERY WARM AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUING THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
HIGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS IN EARLY SEASON HEAT WITH A SIGNIFICANT WARM
UP EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR RECORD BREAKING TEMPERATURES.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE WARM
FRONT WELL NORTH OF THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION, CONTINUED WARMTH IS
EXPECTED. VERY WARM AIR ALOFT COUPLED WITH WARM AIR AT SURFACE
LEVELS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO BE AS MUCH AS 15 TO 30 DEGREES
ABOVE AVERAGE THIS WEEK. AS OF NOW, FORECAST HIGHS ARE IN THE
MID/UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S ON BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, THOUGH
THURSDAY MAY BE A TOUCH COOLER DUE TO MORE CLOUD COVER. SEE CLIMATE
SECTION BELOW REGARDING POTENTIAL RECORD BREAKING TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THURSDAY.
AT THIS POINT, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH AT LEAST 90F FOR
MUCH URBAN CORRIDOR ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THIS WOULD BE FIRST
90 DEGREE DAY OF THE YEAR AND FIRST SINCE EARLY SEPTEMBER. AS IS
TYPICAL IN SPRING THOUGH, TEMPERATURES ALONG/NEAR THE COAST WILL BE
SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER DUE TO THE COLDER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND
DIURNAL SEA BREEZE. WHILE A WEAK SURFACE FRONT PASSES THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING, TEMPERATURES WILL STAY WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S. TEMPERATURES
FINALLY APPEAR TO COOL BACK TOWARD SEASONABLE LEVELS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NOT ONLY WILL IT BE VERY WARM OVER THE COURSE OF THE WEEK, BUT IT
WILL ALSO REMAIN MAINLY DRY. THIS IS OF ELEVATED CONCERN FOR ONGOING
DROUGHT/ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA, WHICH WILL
LIKELY ONLY GET WORSE AFTER THIS WEEK. A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL
PASS BY TO THE NORTH THROUGH THURSDAY, BUT OTHER THAN A STRAY SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM EACH AFTERNOON NORTH OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR, NO
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED. FLOW WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST, WHICH IS MORE FAVORABLE IN TERMS OF MOISTURE, WHICH WILL
LIKELY HINDER THE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THIS WEEK. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE LIGHT AS WELL, AS ANOTHER LIMITING FACTOR. SO, EVEN
THOUGH IT WILL BE WARM AND DRY, FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE MINIMAL.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
OVERNIGHT...PREVAILING VFR. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR MOST
TERMINALS EXCEPT KMIV/KACY WITH VCSH IN THE 00Z TAFS, BUT
CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE REMAINS LOW. SOME FOG IS POSSIBLE, IF
ANY RAIN OCCURS, BUT HAVE LEFT THIS MENTION OUT AS WELL.
SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 4-8 KT. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
WEDNESDAY...VFR. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM FOR THE
LEHIGH VALLEY AND I-95 TERMINALS LATE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON, MAINLY
AFTER 21Z. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10-15 KT. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...PREVAILING VFR. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS (~20-50%) IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS EACH
DAY FOR THE LEHIGH VALLEY AND I-95 TERMINALS.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR. A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND, OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER.
MARINE
NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
WINDS AROUND 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KT ARE EXPECTED WITH SEAS
AROUND 2-4 FEET. FAIR WEATHER.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...NO MARINE HEADLINES
EXPECTED. WINDS GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 20 KT WITH SEAS AROUND 2-4
FEET. A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
SUNDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES POSSIBLE DUE TO WIND GUSTS AROUND 25
KT AND SEAS AROUND 3-5 FEET. SHOWERS LIKELY.
CLIMATE
WARM TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL ARE EXPECTED FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEK. WEDNESDAY IS CURRENTLY PROJECTED TO BE THE WARMEST DAY,
THOUGH TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY COULD SEE SOME RECORDS BROKEN
DEPENDING ON THE SITE. BELOW ARE RECORD HIGHS AND RECORD HIGH
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR APRIL 14TH THROUGH APRIL 16TH.
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
APRIL 14
SITE RECORD/YEAR
ALLENTOWN (ABE) 88/2023
AC AIRPORT (ACY) 86/1945
AC MARINA (55N) 90/1941
GEORGETOWN (GED) 87/1977
MOUNT POCONO (MPO) 84/2023
PHILADELPHIA (PHL) 91/1941
READING (RDG) 90/1941
TRENTON (TTN) 89/1941
WILMINGTON (ILG) 87/1941
RECORD WARMEST LOW TEMPERATURES
APRIL 14
SITE RECORD/YEAR
ALLENTOWN (ABE) 61/2014
AC AIRPORT (ACY) 63/2023
AC MARINA (55N) 60/2023
GEORGETOWN (GED) 65/2019
MOUNT POCONO (MPO) 56/2014
PHILADELPHIA (PHL) 62/2014
READING (RDG) 64/2014
TRENTON (TTN) 62/2014
WILMINGTON (ILG) 60/2014
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
APRIL 15
SITE RECORD/YEAR
ALLENTOWN (ABE) 86/1941 & 1994
AC AIRPORT (ACY) 90/1967
AC MARINA (55N) 86/1941
GEORGETOWN (GED) 86/1960 & 2024
MOUNT POCONO (MPO) 82/1941
PHILADELPHIA (PHL) 88/1941
READING (RDG) 86/1941 & 1994
TRENTON (TTN) 87/1994
WILMINGTON (ILG) 86/1896
RECORD WARMEST LOW TEMPERATURES
APRIL 15
SITE RECORD/YEAR
ALLENTOWN (ABE) 59/2002
AC AIRPORT (ACY) 61/2002
AC MARINA (55N) 59/2006
GEORGETOWN (GED) 65/2002
MOUNT POCONO (MPO) 58/2002
PHILADELPHIA (PHL) 64/2002
READING (RDG) 64/1938
TRENTON (TTN) 63/2002
WILMINGTON (ILG) 62/2002
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
APRIL 16
SITE RECORD/YEAR
ALLENTOWN (ABE) 90/2012
AC AIRPORT (ACY) 89/2002
AC MARINA (55N) 88/2002
GEORGETOWN (GED) 89/2002
MOUNT POCONO (MPO) 85/2002
PHILADELPHIA (PHL) 90/2002
READING (RDG) 90/2012
TRENTON (TTN) 91/2012
WILMINGTON (ILG) 92/1896
RECORD WARMEST LOW TEMPERATURES
APRIL 16
SITE RECORD/YEAR
ALLENTOWN (ABE) 60/1941
AC AIRPORT (ACY) 62/2002
AC MARINA (55N) 64/2002
GEORGETOWN (GED) 65/2012
MOUNT POCONO (MPO) 56/2002
PHILADELPHIA (PHL) 62/2002
READING (RDG) 65/1941
TRENTON (TTN) 62/2002
WILMINGTON (ILG) 63/2002
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DESILVA/PO
AVIATION...DESILVA/PO
MARINE...DESILVA
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