358
FXUS61 KPHI 092344
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
744 PM EDT THU APR 9 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
INCREASING RISK OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW
MORNING.
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
1. MILDER TONIGHT WITH SOME PATCHY FOG AND FROST POSSIBLE.
2. ELEVATED RISK OF RAPID FIRE SPREAD EXPECTED SATURDAY BEHIND A
MOSTLY DRY COLD FRONT. A MAINLY DRY WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
3. A SIGNIFICANT WARM UP IS EXPECTED FOR THE EARLY AND MIDDLE
PART OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...MILDER TONIGHT WITH SOME PATCHY FOG AND FROST
POSSIBLE.
A SOUTHERLY FLOW TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN SOME MODERATION TO THE
AIRMASS AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES. LOWS FOR THE MOST PART
WILL REMAIN JUST ABOVE FREEZING AND IN THE MID 30S, THOUGH SOME
MORE SHELTERED AND RURAL AREAS COULD FALL BELOW FREEZING. A
LARGE MAJORITY OF ANY FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN AREAS
WHERE THE GROWING SEASON HAS NOT STARTED YET.
HOWEVER, LOW DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS TONIGHT COULD RESULT IN SOME
FROST DEVELOPING WHERE THE GROWING SEASON IS ACTIVE. WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S, PATCHY FROST IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP
WITHIN MORE RURAL AREAS AWAY FROM THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND AWAY
FROM THE COAST (WHERE TEMPERATURES COULD BE WARM ENOUGH TO
PRECLUDE FROST DEVELOPMENT). IN ADDITION, WITH RHS EXPECTED TO
BE BETWEEN 95-100% TONIGHT, SOME LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG
CANNOT BE RULED OUT EITHER. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY ABOUT COVERAGE OF
FOG VS FROST, WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY FROST ADVISORIES AND JUST
HAVE INCLUDED PATCHY FROST AND PATCHY FOG IN THE FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGE 2...ELEVATED RISK OF RAPID FIRE SPREAD EXPECTED
SATURDAY BEHIND A MOSTLY DRY COLD FRONT. A MAINLY DRY WEATHER
PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS MAY ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, MAINLY UP IN
THE POCONOS, THOUGH AS OF RIGHT NOW THE POTENTIAL FOR A WETTING
RAINFALL REMAINS LOW (15% CHANCE OR LESS). WIDESPREAD RHS
AROUND 25-35% ARE EXPECTED TO FOLLOW ON SATURDAY WITH NORTHWEST
WIND GUSTS POTENTIALLY INCREASING TO AROUND 25-35 MPH. SATURDAY
CONTINUES TO BEAR WATCHING FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS, AS A
RESULT. OTHERWISE, DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
KEY MESSAGE 3...A SIGNIFICANT WARM UP IS EXPECTED FOR THE EARLY
AND MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.
AFTER A SEASONABLE WEEKEND, A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND WILL
LIKELY TAKE PLACE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL INITIALLY BUILD BACK IN ACROSS THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF
THE COLD FRONT THIS WEEKEND, BEFORE SHIFTING EAST AND ALLOWING
FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF RETURN FLOW. BY MID-WEEK, HIGH
TEMPERATURES COULD SURGE WELL INTO THE 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS ONLY FALLING INTO THE 60S. 90 IS NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION IN THE TYPICAL HOT SPOTS.
A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES COULD BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A FEW
SHOWERS TO NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE,
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY UNTIL AT LEAST WEDNESDAY,
WHEN A COLD FRONT MAY BEGIN TO APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
TONIGHT...VFR TO START WITH CEILING AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
DEVELOPING AT MOST TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG LOOK
TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. RESTRICTIONS WERE LEFT OUT OF KABE/KRDG AT
THIS TIME DUE TO THESE TERMINALS HAVING THE LOWEST CONFIDENCE IN
RESTRICTIONS WITH LOW CLOUDS LEFT AS SCATTERED. ALL THE OTHER
TERMINALS HAVE A COMBINATION OF VISIBILITY AND CEILING
RESTRICTIONS LEADING TO IFR OR LIFR CONDITIONS MAINLY BETWEEN
06-09Z. WINDS ARE OUT OF THE SOUTH AT 5 KNOTS OR LESS TONIGHT
WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT TIMES. LOW CONFIDENCE.
FRIDAY...RETURNING TO VFR AFTER AROUND 15Z AS LOW CLOUDS
SCATTER OUT AND VISIBILITY IMPROVES. SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10
KT WITH SOME AFTERNOON GUSTS POSSIBLY UP TO 20 KTS. LOW
CONFIDENCE ON THE EXACT TIMING OF IMPROVEMENTS TO VFR.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT...PRIMARILY VFR. BRIEF PERIODS OF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS, PRIMARILY FOR
THE LEHIGH VALLEY TERMINALS.
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...VFR. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER.
MARINE
TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ON THE WATERS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.
WINDS OUT OF THE EAST/SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 KT OR LESS WITH 2 TO 4
FOOT SEAS. MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY POSSIBLE LATER FRIDAY
WITH WAVES POSSIBLY REACHING 5 FEET, BUT HOLDING OFF ON HEADLINE
FOR THE TIME BEING.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. WINDS
MAY GUST TO 25 KT AND SEAS MAY REACH 4-6 FEET FRIDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...NO MARINE HAZARDS
ANTICIPATED. WINDS UNDER 25 KT. SEAS UNDER 5 FEET.
MONDAY...SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING NEAR
25 KT. SEAS INCREASE TO 4-6 FEET.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...NO MARINE HAZARDS ANTICIPATED.
WINDS UNDER 25 KT. SEAS UNDER 5 FEET.
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AKL/HOEFLICH/RCM
AVIATION...AKL/GUZZO/HOEFLICH/RCM
MARINE...AKL/HOEFLICH/RCM
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