348
FXUS61 KPHI 261032
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
632 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR DELAWARE BAY FOR
TONIGHT.
KEY MESSAGES
1. LOW PRESSURE PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND DRAGS A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY.
2. MILD AND UNSETTLED PATTERN TAKES HOLD AS EARLY AS MONDAY NIGHT
NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...LOW PRESSURE PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND
DRAGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE IS SOUTHEAST OF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND CONTINUES
TO DRIFT OUT TO SEA. SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE LATER TODAY AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE OFFSHORE HIGH AND A COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE UNDERWAY
TODAY, AND HIGHS WILL TOP OFF IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. THESE HIGHS ARE
SOME 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY, BUT CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATE IN THE DAY AS THAT FRONT DRAWS
NEARER.
LOW PRESSURE PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT, AND THIS WILL PULL A
COLD FRONT SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION. SHOWERS DEVELOP THIS EVENING,
AND CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL BE THROUGH MOST OF THE
REGION BY FRIDAY MORNING, THEN WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY OVER
THE DELMARVA PENINSULA MOST OF THE DAY BEFORE FINALLY SAGGING
TOWARDS THE MID-ATLANTIC LATE IN THE DAY. SHOWERS TAPER OFF OVER THE
SOUTHERN POCONOS, NORTHERN NEW JERSEY, AND THE LEHIGH VALLEY IN THE
MORNING, AND THEN SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY, THE
DELAWARE VALLEY, AND DELMARVA MOST OF THE DAY. SOME ELEVATED THIS
EVENING MAY RESULT IN A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO THIS EVENING, BUT
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES DROP DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AS COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL
BE UNDERWAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S FOR MOST
OF THE AREA AND IN THE LOW TO MID 60S IN THE MORNING, AND WILL FALL
INTO UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGE 2...MILD AND UNSETTLED PATTERN TAKES HOLD AS EARLY AS
MONDAY NIGHT NEXT WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE THAT DOMINATES THIS WEEKEND RESULTING IN DRY AND QUIET
WEATHER WILL MOVE OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY. RETURN FLOW SETS UP, USHERING
IN A WARMER AIRMASS AFTER BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY, AND
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY. WARM SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
FOR THE BEGINNING AND MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK WILL RESULT IN A
STRETCH OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE EARLY AND MIDDLE
PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.
WHILE IT WILL BE ON THE MORE MILD AND WARMER SIDE NEXT WEEK, THERE
WILL BE MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR RAIN AS SEVERAL FRONTAL SYSTEMS SLIDE
BY. NONE OF THESE SYSTEMS LOOK OVERLY IMPACTFUL AT THIS POINT, BUT
THERE COULD BE SOME PERIODS OF RAIN, BEGINNING LATE MONDAY AND
CONTINUING OFF AND ON THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
TODAY...VFR. SW WINDS 5 TO 10 KT IN THE MORNING, INCREASING TO
10 TO 15 KT WITH 20 TO 25 KT GUSTS AFTER 16Z. WINDS AT 200 FT
INCREASE TO 45 TO 50 KT PRIOR TO 00Z AT KRDG/KABE. SOME -SHRA
MAY MOVE INTO KRDG/KABE PRIOR TO 00Z AS WELL. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE.
TONIGHT...SUB-VFR CIGS/VSBYS IN -SHRA. LLWS AT 2000 FT FOR SW
WINDS 45 TO 50 KT FROM AROUND 00Z TO 06Z. SW WINDS AROUND 10 KT
WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT, TURNING W-NW AT AROUND 10 KT AFTER 06Z,
THEN N BY 12Z. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
FRIDAY...SUB-VFR IN -SHRA AND LOW CIGS. N WINDS 8 TO 12 KT.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT...LINGERING MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT, BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR BY
DAYBREAK SATURDAY.
SATURDAY...VFR. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 20-25 KT.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...VFR. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER.
MARINE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT WITH 25 TO 30 KT
GUSTS LATER THIS MORNING ON THE OCEAN WATERS AND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS INCREASE ON DELAWARE BAY TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE WATERS TONIGHT, AND WINDS TURN NORTH AROUND
10 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT ON FRIDAY.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE OCEAN WATERS TODAY
THROUGH TONIGHT, AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR
DELAWARE BAY FOR TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS WIND
GUSTS 25-30 KT PICK UP AFTER A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT. GUSTS CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SEAS COULD NEAR 5
FEET AT TIMES.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...NO MARINE HEADLINES EXPECTED.
MONDAY...SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY (60-70%) AS WINDS PICK UP OUT OF THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AROUND 20-25 KT AND SEAS 4 TO 6 FEET.
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY
FOR ANZ430-431.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
DISCUSSION...HOEFLICH/MPS
AVIATION...HOEFLICH/MPS
MARINE...HOEFLICH/MPS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page