400
FXUS61 KPHI 081008
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
608 AM EDT FRI MAY 8 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED AVIATION AND MARINE SECTIONS.
KEY MESSAGES
1. AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL LEAD TO A FEW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL LEAD TO A FEW CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN SEASONABLE THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S AND LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO LOW
50S FOR MOST.
AN UNSETTLED PATTERN LOOKS TO TAKE SHAPE ACROSS THE REGION
BEGINNING ON SATURDAY AS MID-LEVEL TROUGHING BEGINS TO TAKE
SHAPE ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC. A MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION SOME TIME ON SATURDAY.
AN ATTENDANT SURFACE TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA, LEADING
TO SCATTERED OR EVEN WIDESPREAD SHOWER DEVELOPMENT LATE SATURDAY
MORNING INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SATURDAY AFTERNOON, SHOWER
COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BECOME A BIT MORE SPARSE, BUT SOME GUIDANCE
DEPICTS ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEASTERN PA, SOUTHERN NJ, AND THE DELMARVA THROUGH THE
EVENING. IT IS UNCLEAR TO WHAT EXTENT CLEARING AND
DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR, BUT IT STILL APPEARS THAT ENOUGH
INSTABILITY MAY BE REALIZED FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THE SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL APPEARS LOW AT THIS TIME. OVERALL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE GENERALLY ON THE ORDER OF 0.1-0.25", THOUGH
HIGHER AMOUNTS COULD OCCUR WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE ON SATURDAY, HEIGHT RISES
ALOFT AND A BRIEF PERIOD OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL
ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS MOST OF THE DAY SUNDAY AS WELL AS FOR
SUBSTANTIAL WARMING TO TAKE PLACE WITH RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF THE
NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
SUNDAY LOOK TO BE IN THE MID 70S NORTHWEST OF I-95, AND UPPER
70S TO NEAR 80 SOUTHEAST.
ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE AND AN ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT
LOOK TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING, BRINGING WITH IT ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND PERHAPS
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT,
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO RETURN TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK.
AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS...
TODAY... VFR. SKC IN THE MORNING, GIVING WAY TO SCT/BKN CLOUDS
IN THE AFTERNOON. WEST WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 10-15 KT WITH
GUSTS GENERALLY 20-25 KT BUT A FEW OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS TO
AROUND 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
TONIGHT...BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY BUT REMAINING VFR. WINDS LIGHT
AND VARIABLE EARLY SETTLING OUT OF THE S/SE AROUND 5 KNOTS OR
LESS OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT TIMES IN PERIODS OF
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
SATURDAY NIGHT...PRIMARILY VFR. SOME LOW CLOUDS OR PATCHY FOG
ARE POSSIBLE.
SUNDAY...VFR. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT
TIMES IN PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...VFR. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER.
MARINE
WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KNOTS OVER THE WATERS EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL DIMINISH SOME HEADING INTO THE DAY TODAY WITH NO
MARINE HEADLINES EXPECTED FOR TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. SOUTH
WIND 15- 20 KT AND GUSTS AROUND 25 KT AND SEAS 3-6 FEET
EXPECTED. WINDS AND SEAS LOOK TO DIMINISH LATE SATURDAY EVENING
BELOW SCA CRITERIA. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED WITH WINDS UNDER 25 KT AND SEAS UNDER 5 FEET.
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM SATURDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT
SATURDAY NIGHT FOR ANZ450>455.
DISCUSSION...COOPER
AVIATION...COOPER/DESILVA/FITZSIMMONS
MARINE...COOPER/FITZSIMMONS
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