457
FXUS61 KPHI 112321
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
621 PM EST WED FEB 11 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
CHANCES FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL WITH A LATE WEEKEND STORM
SYSTEM CONTINUE TO DROP.
KEY MESSAGES
1. BREEZY WINDS THROUGH THURSDAY. A BRIEF COOL DOWN THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. GENERALLY MILDER TEMPERATURES RETURN THIS WEEKEND
INTO NEXT WEEK.
2. WE CONTINUE TO WATCH A STORM SYSTEM FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY, WHICH COULD AFFECT THE AREA DEPENDING ON ITS TRACK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...BREEZY WINDS THROUGH THURSDAY. A BRIEF COOL
DOWN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. GENERALLY MILDER TEMPERATURES RETURN
THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT
PASSED THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE RESULTANT TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH THURSDAY,
KEEPING BREEZY WNW TO NW WINDS IN THE FORECAST. WIND GUSTS 25-35
MPH LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL SUBSIDE SLIGHTLY TONIGHT BEFORE
RAMPING BACK UP THURSDAY MORNING WITH GUSTS AROUND 20-25 MPH.
DESPITE "WARMER" TEMPERATURES THAN WE HAVE HAD RECENTLY, THE
WIND CHILL WILL STILL MAKE IT FEEL RATHER COLD. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE LARGELY IN THE LOW TO MID 20S, BUT WIND CHILLS WILL
STILL BE IN THE TEENS WITH SINGLE DIGITS IN THE POCONOS. A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN POCONOS TONIGHT AS
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE PIVOTS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
THIS WILL ALSO HELP USHER IN A COLDER AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING GENERALLY FAIR BUT SOMEWHAT COOLER
CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY (COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY).
EXPECT HIGHS BOTH DAYS GENERALLY IN THE 30S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE TEENS AND 20S. WINDY CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY WILL MAKE IT
FEEL ABOUT 10 DEGREES COLDER. THE AIRMASS OVER THE AREA
MODERATES OVER THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY SHIFTS OFF TO
THE EAST. EXPECT HIGHS BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY GENERALLY
RANGING FROM THE 30S NORTH TO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S SOUTH.
HOWEVER OVERNIGHT LOWS, AT LEAST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE
BELOW FREEZING IN THE 20S. THE OVERALL MODERATING TREND LOOKS TO
CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK WITH THE ONE CAVEAT BEING THE COASTAL
STORM SYSTEM THAT COULD IMPACT THE AREA BY LATER SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY (SEE KEY MESSAGE #2). DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH AND TRACK
OF THE SYSTEM IT COULD CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO BE COLDER THAN
WE'RE CURRENTLY THINKING IF WE GET INTO HEAVIER PRECIPITATION
THAT RESULTS IN DYNAMIC AND EVAPORATIONAL COOLING. REGARDLESS OF
WHAT HAPPENS WITH THE STORM, IT WILL HAVE DEPARTED BY NEXT
TUESDAY WITH HIGHS BY THEN LOOKING TO BE WELL INTO THE 40S FOR
MOST AREAS WITH EVEN SOME LOW 50S OVER PARTS OF DELMARVA.
KEY MESSAGE 2...WE CONTINUE TO WATCH A STORM SYSTEM FOR THE
LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, WHICH COULD AFFECT THE AREA DEPENDING
ON ITS TRACK.
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEPICT AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
AFFECTING THE EASTERN SEABOARD BEGINNING LATE SUNDAY AND
CONTINUING INTO MONDAY. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY IN THE
INTENSITY, TRACK, AND TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM. MOST OF THE MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TRENDING TOWARDS KEEPING THE SYSTEM FARTHER
SOUTH AND EAST WITH LESS IMPACT ON OUR AREA. THE AIRMASS IN
PLACE PRIOR TO THIS SYSTEM ARRIVING WILL BE RELATIVELY MILD
(HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S), MEANING RAIN OR
SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN WOULD TEND TO BE FAVORED WITH ANY
PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER, A STRONG ENOUGH SYSTEM COULD PRODUCE
DYNAMIC COOLING, WITH JUST ENOUGH COLD AIR FOR ACCUMULATING
SNOW TO OCCUR ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA EXCLUDING MOST OF THE
COAST. THIS ALL SAID, A STRONG STORM SOLUTION IS A LOWER
PROBABILITY SCENARIO BASED ON THE OVERALL TRENDS IN
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. THE LATEST NBM
PROBABILITIES FOR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF AT LEAST 2 INCHES ARE
ONLY IN THE 10-20% RANGE ACROSS THE AREA, LOWEST OVER SOUTHERN
DE AND COASTAL NJ AND HIGHEST OVER THE POCONOS. THIS IS SIMILAR
TO THE PREVIOUS CYCLE. NOT HIGH PROBABILITIES, BUT NOT ZERO
EITHER.
IN TERMS OF OUR FORECAST, WE STAYED LARGELY WITH THE NBM WHICH
HAS 40-60% POPS LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY (LOWEST NORTH,
HIGHEST OVER SOUTHERN DE). MOST LIKELY AN PRECIP WOULD FALL AS
RAIN NEAR THE COAST AND OVER SOUTHERN DE, WITH SNOW OR SOME
MIXING WITH SNOW POSSIBLE FOR A TIME FARTHER NORTH TOWARDS THE
URBAN CORRIDOR AND POINTS NORTHWARD. HOWEVER IT'S WORTH NOTING
THESE AREAS FARTHER NORTH THAT HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF SEEING
ANY PRECIP FALL AS SNOW ALSO HAVE LOWER POPS ONLY IN THE 40-50%
RANGE AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
TONIGHT...VFR WITH DECREASING CLOUDS, ESPECIALLY AFTER 02Z.
WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10-15 KT WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
AROUND 20 KT. GUSTS SHOULD DROP OFF IN THE EVENING HOURS.
MODERATE-HIGH CONFIDENCE.
THURSDAY...VFR WITH INCREASING CLOUDS BY MID-DAY. NORTHWEST
WINDS AROUND 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20-25 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...VFR.
SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
WITH RAIN S/E AND SNOW N/W.
MARINE
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL MARINE ZONES
THROUGH THURSDAY. AS COLDER AIR WORKS IN THROUGH TONIGHT AND
INTO THURSDAY, STRONGER WNW TO NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH GUSTS
TO 25-30 KT. SEAS 3-5 FEET. SCA CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO
SUBSIDE LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
REGARDING THE RIVER/BAY ICE...SIGNIFICANT ICE COVER CONTINUES
ACROSS MANY AREA BAY WATERS AND INLAND ESTUARIES. THIS INCLUDES,
BUT IS NOT LIMITED TO THE DELAWARE ESTUARY. ON RIVERS, THE ICE
THICKNESS IS ENOUGH TO CAUSE SOME RESTRICTIONS IN THE FLOW. PER
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND ICE ANALYSIS DATA, THE DELAWARE RIVER IS
MOSTLY ICE COVERED FROM THE ENTRANCE TO DELAWARE BAY NORTHWARD,
OR UPSTREAM, TO AT LEAST WASHINGTON CROSSING.
THE MOST COMMON WAYS RIVER ICE CAN BREAK UP IS EITHER THROUGH A
THERMAL OR MECHANICAL MEANS. WE WOULD LIKE TO SEE TEMPERATURES
RISE INTO THE 40S FOR A FEW DAYS, WHICH PARTS OF THE REGION ARE
FORECAST TO GET TO OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL, PRODUCING RIVER RISES, CAN ALSO BREAK UP
ICE BUT THAT IS NOT IN THE FORECAST THIS WEEK.
AS A RESULT, ICE COVER WILL CONTINUE. THERE MAY BE A PAUSE IN
THE ICE GROWTH DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS AS TEMPERATURES RISE TO
AND ABOVE FREEZING, HOWEVER TEMPERATURES AT NIGHT WILL CONTINUE
TO SUPPORT ICE EXPANSION.
OUTLOOK...
SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY EVENING, BUT WINDS AND
SEAS WILL BE SUBSIDING DURING THIS PERIOD. BEYOND THIS TIME,
CONDITIONS MOST LIKELY STAY BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK UNLESS A COASTAL STORM
SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTH TRACKS FARTHER NORTH CLOSER TO OUR WATERS.
THIS COULD RESULT IN INCREASING WINDS/SEAS LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ430-431-
450>455.
DISCUSSION...FITZSIMMONS/GORSE/MJL/STAARMANN
AVIATION...DESILVA/MJL/STAARMANN
MARINE...STAARMANN
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