108
FXUS61 KPHI 050042
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
842 PM EDT FRI SEP 4 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION FOR 00Z TAF CYCLE.
ADDED A NEW KEY MESSAGE REGARDING POSSIBLE TIDAL FLOODING ON
SUNDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1. A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
2. MAINLY DRY AND COMFORTABLE WEATHER EXPECTED FOR LABOR DAY
WEEKEND.
3. MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED WITH SUNDAY AFTERNOON'S
HIGH TIDE, MAINLY FOR THE JERSEY SHORE, DELAWARE BEACHES, AND
DELAWARE BAY COMMUNITIES.
4. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH ON THURSDAY BRINGING THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1... A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS THIS
EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS THROUGH MD/VA TONIGHT. IT
WILL CREATE THE OPPORTUNITY FOR MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS (MOSTLY) SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PARTS OF
THE CWA. WE HAVE PRESERVED THE 30%-40% POPS FOR THE EVENING AND
EARLY OVERNIGHT PERIODS. WHILE ONLY THE SW CORNER OF OUR
DELMARVA AREAS ARE IN DAY 1 SPC OUTLOOK, STRONG WINDS GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY TSTM. THE ACTIVITY DIMINISHES AFTER
MIDNIGHT-2AM AND SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY FOLLOWING IT.
PATCHY FOG ACROSS RURAL AREAS THAT RECEIVE ANY RAIN.
KEY MESSAGE 2...MAINLY DRY AND COMFORTABLE WEATHER EXPECTED FOR
LABOR DAY WEEKEND.
BY SATURDAY, THE TREND AMONG MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SOUTH OF OUR REGION, WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC. THIS WILL
LARGELY END ANY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL, HOWEVER A
STRAY SHOWER OR TWO CANNOT ENTIRELY BE RULED OUT. ALL IN ALL,
LABOR DAY WEEKEND IS STILL SHAPING UP TO FEATURE NICE WEATHER,
WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AND
COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS.
KEY MESSAGE 3...MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED WITH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON'S HIGH TIDE, MAINLY FOR THE JERSEY SHORE, DELAWARE
BEACHES, AND DELAWARE BAY COMMUNITIES.
FLOW WILL TURN MORE ONSHORE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL
RESULT IN WATER PILING UP OVER CONSECUTIVE TIDE CYCLES,
POTENTIALLY LEADING TO MINOR TIDAL FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
OUR AREA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS MINOR
TIDAL FLOODING FROM BARNEGAT BAY ON SOUTH ALONG THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN COASTLINE AND FOR AREAS WITHIN DELAWARE BAY. ADVISORIES
MAY BE NEEDED IN THESE SPOTS BUT WILL WAIT TO SEE HOW THINGS
TREND OVER THE 12 TO 24 HOURS WITH THE FORECAST.
WITHIN THE TIDAL DELAWARE RIVER, NORTHERN NJ COAST, AND
CHESAPEAKE BAY, TIDAL FLOODING WILL BE LIMITED TO SPOTTY MINOR
OR NO FLOODING AT ALL. TIDE LEVELS SHOULD DECREASE GETTING INTO
NEXT WEEK AS FLOW TURNS MORE OFFSHORE.
KEY MESSAGE 4...A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH ON THURSDAY
BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.
BY TUESDAY, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT OFFSHORE WELCOMING
THE RETURN OF SLIGHTLY ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND AN INCREASE
IN HUMIDITY LEVELS. HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS LIKE IT WILL STILL BE
IN CONTROL THROUGH MID-WEEK, BEFORE GIVING WAY TO A COLD FRONT
THAT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH AND WEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. THIS FRONT WILL BE THE NEXT BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR
ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THE AREA. AS OF NOW, POPS
ARE IN THE 20-30% RANGE.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
TONIGHT...CONTINUED WITH THE PROB30 FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS BUT
SHIFTED BACK SLIGHTLY, MAINLY BETWEEN 03Z/06Z. THE NORTHERN
EXTENT OF RAINS/TSTMS IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN BUT LOOKING LESS
LIKELY FOR KABE AND KTTN SO REMOVED PROB30 MENTIONS FOR THOSE
TWO TERMINALS. VFR FOLLOWING THE RAINS EXCEPT IF ANY FOG
DEVELOPS. LOW/MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.
SATURDAY...VFR EXPECTED. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10
KNOTS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...VFR EXPECTED. NO SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER EXPECTED.
MARINE
WINDS AND SEAS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY. HOWEVER, ANOTHER ROUND OF
STORMS MAY AFFECT THE WATERS THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
BRINGING LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...NO MARINE HEADLINES
EXPECTED. NORTHEAST WINDS MAY BRIEFLY GET GUSTY ON SUNDAY, BUT
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA. SEAS WILL GENERALLY RANGE
AROUND 2-4 FEET.
WEDNESDAY...SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE DUE TO WIND GUSTS AROUND 25
KT WITH SEAS AROUND 4-5 FEET.
RIP CURRENTS...
FOR SATURDAY, NORTHERLY WINDS MAINLY 5-10 MPH WITH BREAKING WAVES
IN THE SURF ZONE LESS THAN 2 FEET. THEREFORE, WILL CONTINUE WITH
THE LOW RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS.
FOR SUNDAY, WINDS WILL BE MORE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST OR EAST-NORTHEAST
AND INCREASE TO 10-20 MPH. THIS WILL BUILD THE SEAS INTO THE COAST,
WITH BREAKING WAVES IN THE SURF ZONE 2-3 FEET. OPTED TO GO WITH A
LOW RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS, HOWEVER
IF THE BREAKING WAVES INCREASE SOME MORE THEN THE RISK COULD
INCREASE TO MODERATE.
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AKL/DESILVA/HOEFLICH/OHARA
AVIATION...AKL/DESILVA/OHARA
MARINE...DESILVA/GORSE/OHARA
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