315
FXUS61 KPHI 090201
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1001 PM EDT TUE JUL 8 2025
SYNOPSIS
A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO THE
AREA TONIGHT AND THEN WAFFLE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH
LATE WEEK AS ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH. BERMUDA HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND, EVENTUALLY
BREAKING DOWN FOR THE START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK. SEVERAL
DISTURBANCES WILL PASS THROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND AS WELL.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
FLOOD WATCH FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT WAS CANCELLED. A NEW FLOOD
WATCH WAS ISSUED FOR TOMORROW BETWEEN 5 PM AND 2 AM FOR AREAS
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-78.
THE UNSETTLED, ACTIVE, AND TROPICAL WEATHER PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY DUE TO A SLOW-MOVING FRONT WHICH WILL
WORK ITS WAY TOWARD THE AREA BUT WON'T CROSS FULLY THROUGH THE
AREA UNTIL FRIDAY.
THE LINE OF STORMS THAT IMPACTED THE REGION EARLIER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OFFSHORE INTO
TONIGHT. HOWEVER, A FEW RESIDUAL SHOWERS MAY REMAIN AROUND THE
AREA, ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE COAST. SKIES TONIGHT WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY CLOUDY, KEEPING TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN VERY MILD
OVERNIGHT IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.
WEDNESDAY WILL VIRTUALLY BE A RINSE AND REPEAT KIND OF DAY IN
TERMS OF THE OVERALL FORECAST, EXCEPT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
HAVE MADE ITS WAY CLOSER TO THE AREA, SUPPRESSING THE OVERALL
THREAT OF CONVECTION A BIT FURTHER SOUTH. EXPECTING PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES IN THE MORNING TO GIVE WAY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
COME THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE TROPICAL AND DEEP MOISTURE AIRMASS
PERSISTING, IN ADDITION TO THE NEARBY FRONTAL BOUNDARY, YET
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP MID-LATE
AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY. GREATEST THREAT WILL BE FROM
PHILADELPHIA ON SOUTH, WHERE BETTER ATMOSPHERIC PARAMETERS
OVERLAP WITH ONE ANOTHER, SO SPC HAS INTRODUCED A SLIGHT RISK IN
THOSE AREAS, WITH A MARGINAL RISK REMAINING ELSEWHERE.
SIMILARLY, WPC HAS KEPT A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR
MOST OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL
ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED. DUE TO THERE BEING A LARGE
GAP IN BETWEEN POTENTIAL HEAVY RAIN PERIODS TONIGHT, WILL HAVE
FUTURE SHIFTS CONSIDER ANOTHER FLOOD WATCH FOR WEDNESDAY. ALL IN
ALL ANOTHER MUGGY AND HUMID DAY IS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER DUE TO MORE CLOUD COVER COMPARED TO
TODAY WHERE HEAT INDICIES WILL LARGELY REMAIN IN THE 90S FOR THE
MAJORITY OF THE AREA. LOOKS LIKE WE'LL FALL SHORT OF NEEDING
ANY HEAT HEADLINES THOUGH.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL BE OVER THE NORTHEAST AND MID-
ATLANTIC FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL BE
IN THE LOW TO MID 70S, ALONG WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID
80S. THIS WILL YIELD HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S.
THESE HIGH DEW POINTS WILL ALSO KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES AT NIGHT
QUITE WARM, AND LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER 70S.
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL REMAIN ON TAP AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
HOVER OVER THE AREA. ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE IN
PLACE GIVEN THOSE HIGH DEW POINTS, AND PWATS WILL BE UP TO AND
IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES. LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY EVENING WILL BE CAPABLE OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND
FLASH FLOODING. WITH SB CAPE VALUES UP TO 1500 J/KG AND 30 TO 35
KT OF 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR, CANNOT RULE OUT DAMAGING WINDS FROM
THUNDERSTORMS.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT THE AREA
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST AND PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. GIVEN HOW WARM AND
HUMID CONDITIONS WILL BE, LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN. THIS PATTERN CONTINUES ON FRIDAY.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
FAIRLY TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN ON TAP FOR THE LONG TERM
PERIOD WITH WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS. SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 70S OR SO FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
AROUND SUNDAY, AND THEN DEW POINTS LOOK TO COME DOWN A BIT FOR
THE START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK, GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOW 70S. IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE THAT DURING THE PEAK HEATING OF THE
DAY THAT DEW POINTS DROP BY A FEW DEGREES DUE TO MIXING. HIGHS
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S, POSSIBLY AROUND 90 IN
SOME SPOTS. THIS WILL GIVE WAY TO MAX HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE
LOW TO MID 90S.
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION FROM TIME
TO TIME, BUT CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND PLACEMENT IS LOW. WILL
GENERALLY FOLLOW THE NBM AND GO WITH 30 TO 50 PERCENT POPS FOR
MOST OF THIS TIME, THOUGH THE NBM IS INDICATING 60 PERCENT POPS
FOR THE SOUTHERN POCONOS, LEHIGH VALLEY, AND BERKS COUNTY ON
SUNDAY DUE TO A STRONGER SYSTEM POSSIBLY APPROACHING THEN.
IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOSTLY
BE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS, AND THERE ARE NOT MANY
FACTORS INDICATING PRECIPITATION WOULD BE WIDESPREAD AND
ORGANIZED AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
TONIGHT...VFR EXPECTED WITH MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE IN ANY
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AND AGAIN POSSIBLY AFTER 06Z AS SOME
STRATUS DEVELOPS, HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOW, AND GENERALLY HAVE
SCT CEILINGS BELOW 3000 FT TO COVER THIS POTENTIAL. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL WANE INTO THE EVENING HOURS AND TAPER OFF BY
MIDNIGHT. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 3-5 KT. MODERATE-LOW
CONFIDENCE.
WEDNESDAY...PRIMARILY VFR WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON. ANY SHOWERS AND
STORMS MAY CAUSE LOCALIZED AREAS OF VSBY/CIG RESTRICTIONS.
SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5-10 KT. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...OVERALL, VFR CONDITIONS.
HOWEVER, AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHRA/TSRA MAY RESULT IN BRIEF
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IF A GIVEN STORM PASSES OVER A TERMINAL. SUB-
VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT NIGHT DUE TO FOG AND LOW CLOUDS, BUT
CONFIDENCE LOW ON TIMING AND PLACEMENT.
MARINE
NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10-20 KT THIS AFTERNOON, DIMINISH TO
AROUND 5-10 KT TONIGHT, BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY TO
AROUND 10-15 KT. SEAS OF 3-4 FEET. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING, WHERE LOCALIZED
WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 34 KT ARE POSSIBLE. ANOTHER ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS FOR THIS
PERIOD. AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
EACH DAY. VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM TIME TO TIME,
ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT.
RIP CURRENTS...
FOR WEDNESDAY, A SOUTH/SOUTHWEST SHORE PARALLEL WIND OF AROUND
10-20 MPH AND BREAKING WAVES OF AROUND 3 FEET WILL RESULT IN A
MODERATE RISK FOR THE JERSEY SHORE. WITH WIND DIRECTION MAINLY
OFFSHORE ALONG THE DELAWARE BEACHES, A LOW RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS
IS IN PLACE
FOR THURSDAY...FLOW TURNS MORE SOUTHERLY RESULTING IN SLIGHT
ONSHORE COMPONENT FOR CAPE MAY AND ATLANTIC COUNTY, THOUGH ONLY
AROUND 10 MPH OR SO. THIS WILL RESULT IN A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP
CURRENTS IN THOSE LOCATIONS. SEAS WILL BE AROUND 2 TO 3 FEET
ALONG THE ENTIRE COAST. MORE OFFSHORE OR SHORE PARALLEL LIGHT
FLOW WILL RESULT IN A LOW RISK FOR OCEAN AND MONMOUTH COUNTY AT
THE JERSEY SHORE AND FOR THE DELAWARE BEACHES.
RIP CURRENTS OCCUR OFTEN IN THE VICINITIES OF JETTIES AND PIERS
AND THE SPEED OF THE CURRENTS ARE GENERALLY MAXIMIZED AT LOW
TIDES.
FOR SPECIFIC BEACH FORECASTS, VISIT WEATHER.GOV/BEACH/PHI
HYDROLOGY
A FLOOD WATCH WAS ISSUED FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-78 FOR
WEDNESDAY. RAINFALL OF AROUND 0.5 INCHES TO UPWARDS OF 3 TO 4
INCHES FELL ACROSS THE WATCH AREA. THIS RESULTS IN A SATURATED
SURFACE AND LOW FFG VALUES WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. IT WILL NOT
TAKE MUCH TO CAUSE FURTHER FLOODING ISSUES, ESPECIALLY IN SE PA,
WHERE WIDESPREAD FLOODING WAS REPORTED TODAY. RAINFALL RATES OF
2 TO 3 INCHES PER HOUR ARE POSSIBLE WITH THUNDERSTORMS ROLLING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...FLOOD WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT FOR PAZ060>062-070-071-101>106.
NJ...FLOOD WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT FOR NJZ009-010-012>027.
DE...FLOOD WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT FOR DEZ001>004.
MD...FLOOD WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT FOR MDZ012-015-019-020.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MPS
NEAR TERM...DESILVA/HOEFLICH/STAARMANN
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...MPS
AVIATION...DESILVA/MPS
MARINE...DESILVA/MPS
HYDROLOGY...HOEFLICH
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