192  
FXUS61 KPHI 110734  
AFDPHI  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ  
334 AM EDT FRI OCT 11 2024  
   
SYNOPSIS  
 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE REGION THROUGH  
FRIDAY. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE ON SATURDAY BEFORE  
STALLING OVER THE AREA. THE BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA  
ON SUNDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE RIDES ALONG THIS BOUNDARY  
BEFORE A STRONGER COLD FRONT CROSSES THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY.  
LARGE AND EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE OF  
NEXT WEEK.  
 
 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/  
 
FOLLOWING A CHILLY AND FROSTY START THIS MORNING, SEASONABLE  
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN ALONG WITH CONTINUING DRY CONDITIONS  
THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR WEST ACROSS THE  
APPALACHIANS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHEAST AS THE  
DAY PROGRESSES. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE EASTERN  
GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT.  
 
AREAS OF FROST ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THROUGH DAYBREAK, ESPECIALLY  
ACROSS SUBURBAN AND RURAL AREAS OF PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW JERSEY, WITH  
SOME PATCHY FROST POSSIBLE ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF DELMARVA. LOW  
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO NEAR 40 DEGREES (LOW TO  
MID 40S IN THE PHILLY URBAN AREA AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST). THE  
FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT AS PREVIOUSLY ISSUED THROUGH 9 AM.  
 
CESSATION OF COLD ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO AIRMASS MODIFICATION TODAY.  
TEMPERATURES WILL THUS REBOUND TOWARD NORMAL, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES  
THIS AFTERNOON REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 60S IN MOST AREAS. PERHAPS  
A FEW SPOTS REACHING RIGHT AT 70 DEGREES. SKIES WILL REMAIN SUNNY  
AND A WEST TO NORTHWEST BREEZE NEAR 10-15 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED.  
 
FOR TONIGHT, A WEST TO SOUTHWEST PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE WITH THE  
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL NOT SUPPORT SUBSTANTIAL RADIATIONAL  
COOLING. WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED NEAR 5-10 MPH MUCH OF THE NIGHT.  
RESULTING LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR 50 DEGREES ACROSS THE ENTIRE  
AREA UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.  
 
 
   
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/  
 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN MOVING OFF THE COAST OF THE SOUTHEAST  
US ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME, A COLD  
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY BUT WILL BE  
DYING OUT AS IT CROSSES AND EVENTUALLY STALLS OVER OUR REGION.  
AS A RESULT, NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH PLENTIFUL  
SUNSHINE AND CLEAR SKIES THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY NIGHT. LOW  
TEMPS WILL BE RATHER SEASONABLE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S WITH  
HIGHS ON SATURDAY MAINLY IN THE 70S.  
 
FOR SUNDAY AND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL  
DEVELOP OVER THE MIDWEST AND RIDE EASTWARD ALONG THE  
AFOREMENTIONED STALLED BOUNDARY. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN THE  
BOUNDARY LIFTING NORTH AS WARM FRONT. SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD  
INCREASE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION ESPECIALLY DURING THE  
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, MAINLY FROM THE I-95 CORRIDOR NORTH AND  
WEST, WITH THE HIGHEST POPS FOUND OVER THE LEHIGH VALLEY,  
POCONOS AND NORTHERN NJ (40-55%). SOUTH AND EAST OF THE I-95  
CORRIDOR, POP'S DRASTICALLY DECREASE TOWARD THE COAST (10-30%).  
HOWEVER, AS NOTED BY THE PREVIOUS SHIFT, THERE STILL IS SOME  
VARIANCE ON HOW FAR THE NORTH THE BOUNDARY LIFTS. IF THE  
BOUNDARY LIFTS FURTHER NORTH, THEN LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIP  
MAY OCCUR ALONG WITH SOME WARMER TEMPS ON SUNDAY. IF THE  
BOUNDARY REMAINS CLOSER TO THE REGION, THEN MORE IN THE WAY OF  
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED WITH COOLER TEMPS ON SUNDAY. SHOWER  
ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN TO WANE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW  
DEPARTS.  
 
 
   
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/  
 
THE LONG TERM PERIOD RELATIVELY REMAINS UNCHANGED AS A WHOLE.  
THE ONLY NOTABLE WEATHER FEATURE WORTH MENTIONING IS THE COLD  
FRONT THAT CROSSES THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY. THIS WILL USHER  
IN A VERY DRY AND COOL AIR MASS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK  
AS A LARGE AND EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER  
THE CENTRAL US. THIS WILL KEEP THE REGION DRY UNDER A NORTHWEST  
SURFACE FLOW FOR THE PERIOD. TEMPS WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL ON  
AVERAGE OF 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THIS WILL YIELD SEVERAL  
OPPORTUNITIES FOR FROST AND POTENTIALLY FREEZE HEADLINES ACROSS  
PORTIONS OF THE AREA NEXT WEEK.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/  
 
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,  
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.  
 
THROUGH 12Z...VFR/SKC. NORTHWEST WINDS 5 KTS OR LESS. HIGH  
CONFIDENCE.  
 
TODAY...VFR/SKC. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING TO NEAR 10 KTS.  
HIGH CONFIDENCE.  
 
TONIGHT...VFR/SKC. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 5-10 KTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
 
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.  
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY INTO  
SUNDAY NIGHT FOR KRDG/KABE WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS.  
OTHERWISE, NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED.  
 
 
   
MARINE  
 
NO MARINE HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS 10-  
15 KTS SHIFTING WESTERLY INTO THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL INCREASE  
SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT, WITH SOME GUSTS NEAR 20-25 KTS POSSIBLE AT TIMES  
NORTH OF ATLANTIC CITY AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2-4 FEET. FAIR  
WEATHER.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
 
SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...NO MARINE HEADLINES EXPECTED.  
WNW WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KTS EARLY, SUBSIDING TO 5-10 KTS  
BY THE AFTERNOON. FAIR WEATHER.  
 
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY FOR BOTH THE  
DELAWARE BAY AND ATLANTIC OCEAN WATERS DUE TO WINDS AND SEAS  
ASSOCIATED WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE.  
 
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...SCA CONDITIONS MAY LINGER INTO  
MONDAY NIGHT ON THE OCEAN WATERS, OTHERWISE CONDITIONS SHOULD  
GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.  
 
 
   
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
PA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ054-055-  
060>062-101>106.  
NJ...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NJZ001-007>010-  
012-013-015>023-027.  
DE...NONE.  
MD...NONE.  
MARINE...NONE.  
 
 
 
 
 
SYNOPSIS...DESILVA/MJL  
NEAR TERM...STAARMANN  
SHORT TERM...DESILVA/MJL  
LONG TERM...DESILVA/MJL  
AVIATION...MJL/STAARMANN  
MARINE...MJL  
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