204
FXUS61 KPHI 201304
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
904 AM EDT TUE OCT 20 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1. A NOR'EASTER WELL OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL BRING
COASTAL IMPACTS AND HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS THROUGH ABOUT
THURSDAY.
2. A PROLONGED PERIOD OF ONSHORE FLOW WILL LEAD TO MULTIPLE
ELEVATED HIGH TIDE CYCLES THIS WEEK RESULTING IN ROUNDS OF
COASTAL FLOODING.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...A NOR'EASTER WELL OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
WILL BRING COASTAL IMPACTS AND HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS
THROUGH ABOUT THURSDAY.
A CLOSED LOW OFF THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC COAST TODAY WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTH AND EASTWARD LATER THIS WEEK. THIS IS
SUPPORTING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE, WHICH IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN
AS IT SLOWLY MOVES NORTH AND NORTHEASTWARD (EVEN MEANDER SOME
FOR A TIME). MEANWHILE, STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE
UPPER OHIO VALLEY TO JUST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL BECOME
MORE CENTERED OFFSHORE OF MAINE BY WEDNESDAY. THESE SYSTEMS
WILL RESULT IN A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT INTO OUR AREA
THROUGH ABOUT LATE WEDNESDAY.
THIS NOR'EASTER, WHILE REMAINING WELL OFFSHORE, WILL STILL
RESULT IN SOME IMPACTS FOR OUR COASTAL AND MARINE AREAS. A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF STRENGTHENING NORTH- NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
PUSH WATER TOWARD/INTO THE COAST. MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF COASTAL
FLOODING ARE LIKELY (SEE KEY MESSAGE 2 BELOW). INCREASING SEAS
WILL RESULT IN BEACH EROSION IN SOME AREAS, ESPECIALLY DURING
TIMES OF HIGH TIDE. FOR AREAS ALONG THE COAST, WIND GUSTS TO
ABOUT 35 MPH ARE ANTICIPATED. INLAND, NO IMPACTS ARE ANTICIPATED
GIVEN HOW FAR OFFSHORE THE STORM IS LIKELY TO BE. NO SHOWERS
ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED EVEN AT THE COAST, GIVEN THE DISTANCE
THIS STORM IS FORECAST TO BE OFF THE COAST. THIS KEEPS THE
WESTERN EXTENT OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND FORCING ALSO WELL EAST
OF OUR COASTLINES. SOME STRATOCUMULUS HOWEVER WITHIN THE NORTH-
NORTHEAST FLOW WILL GET INTO THE COASTAL AREAS AT TIMES,
ESPECIALLY FROM THE CENTRAL JERSEY SHORE TO THE DELAWARE
BEACHES, MOST LIKELY WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE
CLOSEST APPROACH TO OUR COAST FOR THIS STORM LOOKS TO BE DURING
WEDNESDAY. THIS SHOULD BE THE PEAK OF THE WINDS ACROSS THE
MARINE AREAS AND ALONG THE COAST.
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, THE STORM WILL GRADUALLY HEAD FARTHER
OUT TO SEA AS AN INCOMING SYSTEM FROM THE NORTHWEST PICKS IT
UP. THIS WILL QUICKLY LESSEN THE MARINE AND COASTAL IMPACTS,
WHILE KEEPING OUR WEATHER DRY AND PROVIDING A FRESH SHOT OF
COOLER AUTUMN AIR.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF ONSHORE FLOW WILL LEAD TO
MULTIPLE ELEVATED HIGH TIDE CYCLES THIS WEEK RESULTING IN ROUNDS
OF COASTAL FLOODING.
AS THE NOR'EASTER MEANDERS OFFSHORE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK, THERE WILL BE A PERSISTENT AND STRONG NORTH-NORTHEAST
WIND IN PLACE. THIS WILL LEAD TO A PROLONGED PERIOD OF ONSHORE
FLOW RESULTING IN MULTIPLE ELEVATED HIGH TIDE CYCLES. RECENT
FORECAST TRENDS HAVE BEEN FLUCTUATING ON THE CRESTS OF THE HIGH
TIDE CYCLES FOR THIS EVENT.
THE FIRST HIGH TIDE CYCLE OF CONCERN WILL BE THIS EVENING AS
SPOTTY MINOR TO WIDESPREAD MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS FORECAST. A
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EVENING HIGH
TIDE CYCLE FOR OCEAN, SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON, ATLANTIC, CAPE
MAY, KENT, AND SUSSEX COUNTY DELAWARE. THIS ADVISORY GOES FROM 3
PM TO 9 PM TODAY AND IS FOR WIDESPREAD MINOR COASTAL FLOODING.
THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING,
LOOKS TO BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SPOTTY MINOR TO WIDESPREAD MINOR
TIDAL FLOODING. DUE TO THE CONTINUED FLUCTUATION OF FORECAST
TRENDS WITH THE HIGH TIDE CYCLES, THE CURRENT COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY WAS NOT EXTENDED TO COVER LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING'S HIGH TIDE CYCLE. HOWEVER, AN ADDITIONAL
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST A PORTION OF
OUR AREA.
ADDITIONAL COASTAL FLOOD HAZARDS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR HIGH
TIDE CYCLES WEDNESDAY, AND POSSIBLY THURSDAY, AS THE HIGH TIDE
CYCLES REMAIN ELEVATED. FROM THE CURRENT FORECAST, WEDNESDAY
EVENING'S HIGH TIDE CYCLE CONTINUES TO BE THE ONE OF MOST
CONCERN WITH WIDESPREAD MINOR COASTAL FLOODING. IN SOME OF THE
BACK BAYS, MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE WITH WEDNESDAY
EVENING'S HIGH TIDE CYCLE. GIVEN FLUCTUATING FORECASTS, DID NOT
QUITE HAVE THE CONFIDENCE TO ISSUE A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH JUST
YET, BUT THIS MAY BE NECESSARY SOON. BEYOND WEDNESDAY EVENING,
THE NOR'EASTER WILL GRADUALLY BE MOVING AWAY FROM THE REGION FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER ROUND OF COASTAL FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE THURSDAY EVENING WITH SPOTTY MINOR TO WIDESPREAD MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING. THIS HIGH TIDE CYCLE IS FORECAST TO BE LOWER
THAN WEDNESDAY EVENING'S HIGH TIDE CYCLE.
AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
TODAY...VFR. NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS 10-15 KNOTS. WIND
GUSTS 20-25 KNOTS FOR THE I-95 TERMINALS TO KMIV AND KACY, FROM
ABOUT MID/LATE MORNING TO LATE AFTERNOON. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
TONIGHT...VFR. NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS 5-10 KNOTS. SOME WIND GUSTS
15-20 KNOTS MAY CONTINUE AT KACY. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...PRIMARILY VFR. GUSTY NORTH-
NORTHEAST WINDS AT TIMES.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...VFR.
MARINE
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW
ENGLAND WILL TIGHTEN TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE WIND INCREASE
HAS BEEN SLOWER THAN FORECAST SO FAR AND THEREFORE DID TEMPER
THE INCREASE A BIT MORE. THE OVERALL WIND FIELD WITH THE WELL
OFFSHORE LOW LOOKS TO NOT BE AS STRONG TO ITS FAR NORTHWEST
EXTENT. HOWEVER, MAINTAINED THE EXISTING GALE WARNING FOR ALL
ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS AND ADJACENT OFFSHORE ZONES. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS LOOK TO DEVELOP ON DELAWARE BAY THROUGH
TODAY, WITH SCA'S UP AS WELL. SEAS WILL ALSO BUILD IN RESPONSE
TO THE INCREASING NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A PERIOD OF GALES FOR MUCH OF THE
OCEAN WATER ZONES, WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON
DELAWARE BAY. THE GALE POTENTIAL FOR LOWER DELAWARE BAY REMAINS
RELATIVELY LOW. PEAK WIND GUSTS IN THE GALE WARNING ARE
FORECAST TO BE BETWEEN 35-45 KNOTS. SEAS BUILD TO 8-12 FEET,
LOWER ON DELAWARE BAY. THE WINDS AND SEAS APPEAR TO PEAK
WEDNESDAY THEN START TO SUBSIDE DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
PROBABLE.
SATURDAY...WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA, HOWEVER SEAS 5-7 FEET MAY LINGER FOR A WHILE LONGER
FOR THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM EDT
THIS EVENING FOR NJZ020-022>027.
DE...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM EDT
THIS EVENING FOR DEZ002>004.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ430-431.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ450.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ451>455-480.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ481>483-485.
DISCUSSION...GORSE/GUZZO/RCM
AVIATION...DESILVA/GORSE/RCM
MARINE...GORSE/RCM
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