575
FXUS61 KPHI 080948
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
548 AM EDT THU OCT 8 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION FOR 12Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
1. TRANQUIL WEATHER WILL PREVAIL INTO THE WEEKEND WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER HAZARDS ANTICIPATED.
2. THE REMNANTS OF WHAT IS NOW HURRICANE ISAIAS WILL APPROACH
THE AREA LATE THIS WEEKEND BRINGING RAIN BACK TO THE REGION
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...TRANQUIL WEATHER WILL PREVAIL INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER HAZARDS ANTICIPATED.
ALOFT, A CLOSED LOW WILL TRAVERSE PORTIONS OF ONTARIO AND THE
HUDSON BAY AND INTO QUEBEC THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH LONG WAVE
TROUGHING ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHEASTERN US. MID-LEVEL RIDGING
WILL BRIEFLY BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR SATURDAY. AT THE SURFACE,
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION TODAY BEFORE HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
AFTER THE COOLER TEMPERATURES THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS, A BRIEF
WARMUP IS ANTICIPATED, WITH HIGHS TODAY IN THE MID 70S. THE
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TODAY WILL USHER IN DRIER AIR AND NUDGE
TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT FOR TONIGHT AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF
THE WEEKEND. NEAR- NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S AND HIGHS
IN THE LOW TO MID 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE ITSELF IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY, SO TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...THE REMNANTS OF WHAT IS NOW HURRICANE ISAIAS
WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE THIS WEEKEND BRINGING RAIN BACK TO
THE REGION SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE LATTER PART OF THIS
WEEKEND AND PERHAPS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE THE REMNANTS OF
WHAT IS CURRENTLY HURRICANE ISAIAS IN THE GULF. IT IS EXPECTED
TO INTENSIFY FURTHER BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL SOMEWHERE ALONG THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST FRIDAY NIGHT AS IT BEGINS INTERACTING WITH
AN UPPER TROUGH. FROM THERE, IT IS EXPECTED TO UNDERGO
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AND CONTINUE NORTHWARD INTO PORTIONS OF
THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT, AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD
IN THE DIRECTION OF OUR AREA ON SUNDAY.
TIMING DISCREPANCIES REMAIN AMONGST MODEL GUIDANCE THIS
AFTERNOON, BUT THERE IS STRONG AGREEMENT THAT THE REMNANTS OF
ISAIAS WILL BRING SOME IMPACTS TO THE REGION SUNDAY AND PERHAPS
INTO EARLY MONDAY. AT THIS POINT IN TIME, IT APPEARS THAT
WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL BE THE PRIMARY IMPACT. IT SHOULD BE NOTED
THAT PWATS ARE MODELED TO BE IN THE 1.5-2 INCH RANGE, SO SOME
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE. WPC HAS PLACED MOST
OF THE REGION IN A MARGINAL RISK (1 OF 4) EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OUTLOOK FOR SUNDAY.
IT IS TOO EARLY TO SPECIFY EXACT RAINFALL AMOUNTS, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL THAT A LARGE PORTION OF THE
AREA COULD END UP WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN, WITH HIGHER
AMOUNTS CERTAINLY NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR TRENDS OVER THE COMING DAYS.
AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
TODAY...VFR. WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5-10 KT EARLY, BECOME
WEST-NORTHWEST AROUND 10-15 KT, WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
TONIGHT...VFR. WINDS WEST-NORTHWEST DIMINISHING TO 5-10 KTS.
HIGH CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...RESTRICTIONS LIKELY WITH THE REMNANTS OF
WHAT IS NOW HURRICANE ISAIAS MOVING THROUGH, ACCOMPANIED BY LOW
STRATUS AND RAIN.
MARINE
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10-20 KTS WILL SHIFT TO WESTERLY IN WAKE OF
A COLD FRONT TODAY, BEFORE BEGINNING TO DIMINISH BY THIS
EVENING. SEAS 2 TO 4 FEET. FAIR WEATHER.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...NO MARINE HEADLINES CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED WITH WINDS UNDER 25 KTS AND SEAS BELOW 5 FEET.
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25 KTS AND SEAS IN EXCESS OF 5 FEET AS
THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ISAIAS MOVE THROUGH. VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN RAIN AND PERHAPS SPRAY.
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...COOPER/RCM
AVIATION...DESILVA/FITZSIMMONS/RCM
MARINE...COOPER/DESILVA/RCM
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