192
FXUS61 KPHI 110734
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
334 AM EDT FRI OCT 11 2024
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE REGION THROUGH
FRIDAY. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE ON SATURDAY BEFORE
STALLING OVER THE AREA. THE BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA
ON SUNDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE RIDES ALONG THIS BOUNDARY
BEFORE A STRONGER COLD FRONT CROSSES THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY.
LARGE AND EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
FOLLOWING A CHILLY AND FROSTY START THIS MORNING, SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN ALONG WITH CONTINUING DRY CONDITIONS
THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR WEST ACROSS THE
APPALACHIANS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHEAST AS THE
DAY PROGRESSES. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT.
AREAS OF FROST ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THROUGH DAYBREAK, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS SUBURBAN AND RURAL AREAS OF PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW JERSEY, WITH
SOME PATCHY FROST POSSIBLE ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF DELMARVA. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO NEAR 40 DEGREES (LOW TO
MID 40S IN THE PHILLY URBAN AREA AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST). THE
FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT AS PREVIOUSLY ISSUED THROUGH 9 AM.
CESSATION OF COLD ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO AIRMASS MODIFICATION TODAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL THUS REBOUND TOWARD NORMAL, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
THIS AFTERNOON REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 60S IN MOST AREAS. PERHAPS
A FEW SPOTS REACHING RIGHT AT 70 DEGREES. SKIES WILL REMAIN SUNNY
AND A WEST TO NORTHWEST BREEZE NEAR 10-15 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED.
FOR TONIGHT, A WEST TO SOUTHWEST PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE WITH THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL NOT SUPPORT SUBSTANTIAL RADIATIONAL
COOLING. WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED NEAR 5-10 MPH MUCH OF THE NIGHT.
RESULTING LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR 50 DEGREES ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN MOVING OFF THE COAST OF THE SOUTHEAST
US ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME, A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY BUT WILL BE
DYING OUT AS IT CROSSES AND EVENTUALLY STALLS OVER OUR REGION.
AS A RESULT, NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH PLENTIFUL
SUNSHINE AND CLEAR SKIES THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY NIGHT. LOW
TEMPS WILL BE RATHER SEASONABLE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S WITH
HIGHS ON SATURDAY MAINLY IN THE 70S.
FOR SUNDAY AND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE MIDWEST AND RIDE EASTWARD ALONG THE
AFOREMENTIONED STALLED BOUNDARY. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN THE
BOUNDARY LIFTING NORTH AS WARM FRONT. SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD
INCREASE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, MAINLY FROM THE I-95 CORRIDOR NORTH AND
WEST, WITH THE HIGHEST POPS FOUND OVER THE LEHIGH VALLEY,
POCONOS AND NORTHERN NJ (40-55%). SOUTH AND EAST OF THE I-95
CORRIDOR, POP'S DRASTICALLY DECREASE TOWARD THE COAST (10-30%).
HOWEVER, AS NOTED BY THE PREVIOUS SHIFT, THERE STILL IS SOME
VARIANCE ON HOW FAR THE NORTH THE BOUNDARY LIFTS. IF THE
BOUNDARY LIFTS FURTHER NORTH, THEN LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIP
MAY OCCUR ALONG WITH SOME WARMER TEMPS ON SUNDAY. IF THE
BOUNDARY REMAINS CLOSER TO THE REGION, THEN MORE IN THE WAY OF
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED WITH COOLER TEMPS ON SUNDAY. SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN TO WANE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW
DEPARTS.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THE LONG TERM PERIOD RELATIVELY REMAINS UNCHANGED AS A WHOLE.
THE ONLY NOTABLE WEATHER FEATURE WORTH MENTIONING IS THE COLD
FRONT THAT CROSSES THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY. THIS WILL USHER
IN A VERY DRY AND COOL AIR MASS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
AS A LARGE AND EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER
THE CENTRAL US. THIS WILL KEEP THE REGION DRY UNDER A NORTHWEST
SURFACE FLOW FOR THE PERIOD. TEMPS WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL ON
AVERAGE OF 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THIS WILL YIELD SEVERAL
OPPORTUNITIES FOR FROST AND POTENTIALLY FREEZE HEADLINES ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE AREA NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
THROUGH 12Z...VFR/SKC. NORTHWEST WINDS 5 KTS OR LESS. HIGH
CONFIDENCE.
TODAY...VFR/SKC. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING TO NEAR 10 KTS.
HIGH CONFIDENCE.
TONIGHT...VFR/SKC. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 5-10 KTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT FOR KRDG/KABE WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS.
OTHERWISE, NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
MARINE
NO MARINE HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS 10-
15 KTS SHIFTING WESTERLY INTO THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL INCREASE
SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT, WITH SOME GUSTS NEAR 20-25 KTS POSSIBLE AT TIMES
NORTH OF ATLANTIC CITY AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2-4 FEET. FAIR
WEATHER.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...NO MARINE HEADLINES EXPECTED.
WNW WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KTS EARLY, SUBSIDING TO 5-10 KTS
BY THE AFTERNOON. FAIR WEATHER.
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY FOR BOTH THE
DELAWARE BAY AND ATLANTIC OCEAN WATERS DUE TO WINDS AND SEAS
ASSOCIATED WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...SCA CONDITIONS MAY LINGER INTO
MONDAY NIGHT ON THE OCEAN WATERS, OTHERWISE CONDITIONS SHOULD
GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ054-055-
060>062-101>106.
NJ...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NJZ001-007>010-
012-013-015>023-027.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...DESILVA/MJL
NEAR TERM...STAARMANN
SHORT TERM...DESILVA/MJL
LONG TERM...DESILVA/MJL
AVIATION...MJL/STAARMANN
MARINE...MJL
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