703
FXUS61 KPHI 250027
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
827 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
A DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR CARBON AND MONROE
COUNTIES UNTIL 10 AM MONDAY.
THE MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED TO NOW INCLUDE
ALL OF THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS AND UPPER DELAWARE BAY UNTIL
11 AM MONDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1. A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL CREATE DANGEROUS
CONDITIONS AT THE JERSEY SHORE AND DELAWARE BEACHES THROUGH MONDAY.
2. UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY AS A SEQUENCE OF
FRONTS AND AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. DRIER AND
MORE SEASONABLE WEATHER RETURNS BY MID-WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL CREATE DANGEROUS
CONDITIONS AT THE JERSEY SHORE AND DELAWARE BEACHES THROUGH MONDAY.
THE RIP CURRENT STATEMENT WAS EXTENDED UNTIL 8 PM MONDAY AS WE
EXPECT A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TO PERSIST THROUGH THIS TIME.
FOR MONDAY, WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15
MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH. BREAKING WAVES WILL BE 2 TO 4 FEET.
THERE WILL BE MULTIPLE SWELL GROUPS INCLUDING AN EASTERLY SWELL WITH
A 9 SECOND PERIOD WHICH WILL LEAD TO THE CONTINUING HIGH RISK FOR
DANGEROUS AND LIFE THREATENING RIP CURRENTS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY
AS A SEQUENCE OF FRONTS AND AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA. DRIER AND MORE SEASONABLE WEATHER RETURNS BY MID-WEEK.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL TRACK
NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN NEW YORK TONIGHT. AS IT DOES SO, IT WILL
CAUSE THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY WHICH IS CURRENTLY DRAPED OVER
THE EAST COAST TO MOVE NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT LATER TONIGHT.
HOWEVER, IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE CAD WEDGE IS QUITE STRONG
AND IS STILL LOCATED AS FAR SOUTH AS NORTHERN GEORGIA AND SOUTH
CAROLINA AT THIS HOUR. IT WILL TAKE A QUITE A SUBSTANTIAL SURGE
NORTH TO REACH AND PASS THROUGH OUR AREA OVERNIGHT. WITH THIS IN
MIND, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE COOLER SIDE OF
THINGS TONIGHT WITH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 50S AND 60S. SPOTTY
DRIZZLE, MIST, AND FOG ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG OVERNIGHT.
BY EARLY TOMORROW MORNING, THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE TRACKING
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING
THE AREA FROM THE WEST ACCOMPANIED WITH SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY
ALOFT. LATEST TRENDS SUGGEST THAT THE FRONT WILL BE A BIT SLOWER
TO ARRIVE THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED, SO THE NEXT ROUND OF
RAIN IS NOW NOT EXPECTED TO ARRIVE UNTIL THE PRE-DAWN HOURS ON
MONDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE LIKELY, WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE I-95
CORRIDOR AND ACROSS THE DELMARVA. THE SEVERE RISK LOOKS QUITE
LOW, BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY GUSTY STORM. AGAIN, THIS IS ALL
DEPENDENT ON HOW FAR NORTH THE WARM FRONT GETS, AND WILL ALSO
DETERMINE THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR MEMORIAL DAY. HIGHS FOR
MEMORIAL DAY WILL MAINLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S DESPITE
ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS, BUT COULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER/COOLER
DEPENDING ON WARM FRONTAL PROGRESSION. SHOWERS WILL WANE BY
MONDAY EVENING FOR MOST, EXCEPT ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY
AND ACROSS THE DELMARVA WHERE SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TOTALS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 0.25- 0.50
INCHES FOR MOST, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE DELMARVA AND CAPE
MAY COUNTY WHERE AN ADDITIONAL 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE.
BY MID TO LATE WEEK, A MORE SEASONABLE, DRY AND BENIGN WEATHER
PATTERN TAKES SHAPE AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE AREA.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
TONIGHT...LOW CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS CONTINUE.
IFR TO LIFR EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE AFTER 06Z
FOR KABE/KRDG. SHOWER COVERAGE LOOKS TO INCREASE BETWEEN
09Z-12Z WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. LOW
CONFIDENCE.
MONDAY...IFR TO LIFR IN THE MORNING WITH LOW CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. THERE IS SOME IMPROVEMENT BETWEEN
16Z-18Z TO IFR OR MVFR AS CEILINGS LIFT A BIT. KMIV/KACY MAY
STAY IFR TO LIFR THROUGH THE DAY. SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH DURING
THE MORNING AND END FOR MOST TERMINALS IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN
SHOWERS LOOK TO PERSIST AT KMIV AND KACY THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE DAY. LIGHT WINDS IN THE MORNING BECOME MORE OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST TO WEST IN THE AFTERNOON. LOW CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR. A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
WEDNESDAY THRU FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR.
MARINE
A CONTINUATION OF THE PATTERN WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND A
LINGERING FRONT ALONG THE SHORE AREAS. WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES
THROUGH MONDAY AND IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT LATER
MONDAY. WE'LL CONTINUE WITH THE SCA FLAG TONIGHT AND SINCE IT'LL
TAKE AWHILE FROM THE SEAS TO SETTLE, WE'LL CONTINUE IT INTO
MONDAY. SEAS ON THE OCEAN MOSTLY AROUND 5 FT.
THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED TO INCLUDE THE ATLANTIC
COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO LITTLE EGG INLET AND ALSO THE
UPPER DELAWARE BAY UNTIL 11 AM MONDAY. THE REMAINDER OF THE
DENSE FOG ADVISORY REMAINS UNCHANGED AND ALSO GOES THROUGH 11 AM
MONDAY.
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS THIS EVENING TURN SOUTH AROUND 10 KTS
LATER TONIGHT, BUT SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED, GRADUALLY SUBSIDING TO
4 TO 5 FEET LATE. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. DRIZZLE AND A FEW SHOWERS
EXPECTED.
ON MONDAY, WINDS WILL BEGIN THE DAY FROM THE SOUTH AROUND 5 TO
10 KNOTS BUT THEN SWITCH TO SOUTHWEST BY AFTERNOON SPEEDS WILL
BECOME 10 TO 15 KTS. THE SCA WILL CONTINUE FOR SEAS SINCE GUSTS
WILL LIKELY BE 20 KTS AT MOST. SHOWERS EXPECTED WITH A CHANCE
FOR A TSTM.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
RIP CURRENTS...
THE RIP CURRENT STATEMENT WAS EXTENDED UNTIL 8 PM MONDAY AS WE
EXPECT A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TO PERSIST THROUGH THIS TIME.
FOR MONDAY, WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15
MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH. BREAKING WAVES WILL BE 2 TO 4 FEET.
THERE WILL BE MULTIPLE SWELL GROUPS INCLUDING AN EASTERLY SWELL WITH
A 9 SECOND PERIOD WHICH WILL LEAD TO THE CONTINUING HIGH RISK FOR
DANGEROUS AND LIFE THREATENING RIP CURRENTS.
FOR TUESDAY, WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST BUT DIMINISH TO
AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH. WAVE HEIGHTS SHOULD SUBSIDE SLIGHTLY AS WELL BUT
THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE AN EASTERLY SWELL AROUND 8 TO 9 SECONDS.
FOR THESE REASONS, THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
DANGEROUS AND LIFE THREATENING RIP CURRENTS.
FOR SPECIFIC BEACH FORECASTS, VISIT WEATHER.GOV/BEACH/PHI
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT MONDAY FOR PAZ054-055.
NJ...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR NJZ014-
024>026.
DE...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR DEZ004.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ430-431-
450>455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
DISCUSSION...DESILVA/GUZZO/MPS
AVIATION...GUZZO/OHARA
MARINE...FITZSIMMONS/GUZZO/OHARA
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