556
FXUS61 KPHI 152320
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
720 PM EDT WED APR 15 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
1. MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
EVENING, MAINLY NORTH OF I-80.
2. RECORD BREAKING WARMTH CONTINUES THROUGH THURSDAY WITH VERY WARM
AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
3. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY.
4. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATER SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH
SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING, MAINLY NORTH OF I-80.
SIMILAR TO TUESDAY, THERE IS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SEVERE
WEATHER ACROSS NORTHEAST PA AND NORTHERN NJ WHERE A MARGINAL RISK IS
IN PLACE FOR SOME ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. TODAY'S
RISK WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A REMNANT MCV THAT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED
OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION THAT WILL TRACK EAST INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND POTENTIALLY CLIP THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF OUR AREA THIS EVENING. AS DIURNAL HEATING CONTINUES,
THIS SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO SOME REINVIGORATION OF CONVECTION IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON AS THE COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS ADVANCES
TOWARD OUR AREA THIS EVENING. SUPPOSE WITH THE WARM AND
RELATIVELY MOIST AIRMASS AND MLCAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1000
J/KG, SOME ISOLATED CELLS COULD DEVELOP, BUT WITH BULK SHEAR
VALUES GENERALLY LESS THAN 30 KT, THESE SHOULD NOT POSE A
THREAT. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON HOW UPSTREAM
CONVECTION EVOLVES, BUT LATEST GUIDANCE TRENDS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE THAT THE GREATER POTENTIAL MAY BE JUST OUTSIDE OF OUR
AREA. FOR THIS REASON, SPC HAS NUDGED THE GREATEST POTENTIAL
FURTHER NORTH, ONLY KEEPING AREAS NORTH OF I-80 IN THE MARGINAL
RISK. IN TERMS OF TIMING, ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY LOOKS TO OCCUR
IN THE EARLY EVENING HOURS, MAINLY AFTER 7 PM AND CONCLUDING BY
OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 2...RECORD BREAKING WARMTH CONTINUES THROUGH THURSDAY
WITH VERY WARM AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF THE WEEKEND.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE WARM
FRONT WELL NORTH OF THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION, CONTINUED WARMTH IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY. VERY WARM AIR ALOFT COUPLED WITH WARM AIR
AT SURFACE LEVELS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO BE AS MUCH AS 15 TO 30
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
HIGHS TODAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S, THOUGH
THURSDAY'S HIGHS COULD A TOUCH COOLER WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS AROUND.
HOWEVER, STILL EXPECTING SEVERAL HIGH TEMPERATURE AND WARMEST LOW
TEMPERATURE RECORDS TO FALL OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SEE THE
CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR TEMPERATURE RECORDS TODAY AND THURSDAY.
TODAY IS SET TO BE THE FIRST 90 DEGREE DAY OF THE YEAR FOR MOST AND
FIRST SINCE EARLY SEPTEMBER. AS IS TYPICAL IN SPRING THOUGH,
TEMPERATURES ALONG/NEAR THE COAST WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER DUE
TO THE COLDER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND DIURNAL SEA BREEZE. WHILE
A WEAK SURFACE FRONT PASSES THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, TEMPS WILL
STAY WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH SATURDAY WITH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE MID
70S TO MID 80S. TEMPERATURES FINALLY APPEAR TO COOL BACK TOWARD
SEASONABLE LEVELS ON SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 3...ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER SPREAD POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY.
A PERIOD OF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON
THURSDAY AS VERY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE. MINRH VALUES WILL
DROP INTO THE 25-35% RANGE FOR MANY LOCALES ACROSS EASTERN PA, NJ
AND THE DELMARVA. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND
10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. DUE TO LACK OF
RECENT RAINFALL, THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR FIRE SPREAD. WHILE
THESE CONDITIONS DO NOT MEET RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA, SUPPOSE A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT MAY BE WARRANTED. WE WILL BE IN CONTACT
WITH OUR FIRE WEATHER PARTNERS LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT TO DETERMINE
IF A SPS MAY BE NEEDED DEPENDING ON HOW DRY 10-HOUR DEAD FUEL
MOISTURES ARE.
THIS IS OF ELEVATED CONCERN FOR ONGOING DROUGHT/ABNORMALLY DRY
CONDITIONS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA, WHICH WILL LIKELY ONLY GET WORSE
AFTER THIS WEEK. WHILE THERE ARE A FEW INSTANCES OF SHOWERS OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, ANY RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE MINIMAL.
KEY MESSAGE 4...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATER SATURDAY
EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY.
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATER SATURDAY EVENING
THROUGH SUNDAY. ANY SEVERE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE
BEFORE REACHING THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION, LEAVING JUST SHOWERS
AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POSSIBILITY. DRY WEATHER WILL
RETURN FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK, WHILE COOLER CONDITIONS
RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
TONIGHT...VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR T-STORM NEAR ABE/RDG
THIS EVENING, BUT KEPT OUT OF TAF GIVEN VERY LOW PROBABILITY.
SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5-10 KT. MODERATE-HIGH CONFIDENCE.
THURSDAY...VFR WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10-15
KT WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KT. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
SOUTHWEST WINDS SHIFTING WEST 5-10 KTS WITH LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR
POSSIBLE. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS DURING THE PERIOD WHICH COULD LEAD TO TEMPORARY
LOWER CONDITIONS.
SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
MARINE
NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS
OF 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KT AND SEAS AROUND 2-4 FEET. FAIR
WEATHER.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY CONDITIONS.
SUNDAY-MONDAY...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS.
CLIMATE
WARM TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL ARE EXPECTED FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEK. TODAY IS CURRENTLY PROJECTED TO BE THE WARMEST DAY,
THOUGH THURSDAY COULD SEE SOME RECORDS BROKEN DEPENDING ON THE
SITE.
BELOW ARE RECORD HIGHS AND RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR
APRIL 15TH THROUGH APRIL 16TH.
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
APRIL 15
SITE RECORD/YEAR
ALLENTOWN (ABE) 86/1941 & 1994
AC AIRPORT (ACY) 90/1967
AC MARINA (55N) 86/1941
GEORGETOWN (GED) 86/1960 & 2024
MOUNT POCONO (MPO) 82/1941
PHILADELPHIA (PHL) 88/1941
READING (RDG) 86/1941 & 1994
TRENTON (TTN) 87/1994
WILMINGTON (ILG) 86/1896
RECORD WARMEST LOW TEMPERATURES
APRIL 15
SITE RECORD/YEAR
ALLENTOWN (ABE) 59/2002
AC AIRPORT (ACY) 61/2002
AC MARINA (55N) 59/2006
GEORGETOWN (GED) 65/2002
MOUNT POCONO (MPO) 58/2002
PHILADELPHIA (PHL) 64/2002
READING (RDG) 64/1938
TRENTON (TTN) 63/2002
WILMINGTON (ILG) 62/2002
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
APRIL 16
SITE RECORD/YEAR
ALLENTOWN (ABE) 90/2012
AC AIRPORT (ACY) 89/2002
AC MARINA (55N) 88/2002
GEORGETOWN (GED) 89/2002
MOUNT POCONO (MPO) 85/2002
PHILADELPHIA (PHL) 90/2002
READING (RDG) 90/2012
TRENTON (TTN) 91/2012
WILMINGTON (ILG) 92/1896
RECORD WARMEST LOW TEMPERATURES
APRIL 16
SITE RECORD/YEAR
ALLENTOWN (ABE) 60/1941
AC AIRPORT (ACY) 62/2002
AC MARINA (55N) 64/2002
GEORGETOWN (GED) 65/2012
MOUNT POCONO (MPO) 56/2002
PHILADELPHIA (PHL) 62/2002
READING (RDG) 65/1941
TRENTON (TTN) 62/2002
WILMINGTON (ILG) 63/2002
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DESILVA/ROBERTSON
AVIATION...DESILVA/RCM/ROBERTSON
MARINE...DESILVA/RCM/ROBERTSON
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