923
FXUS61 KPHI 051105
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
705 AM EDT MON OCT 5 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE TODAY, RESULTING IN BREEZY
AND DRIER CONDITIONS.
2. TRANQUIL WEATHER EXPECTED THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER HAZARDS ANTICIPATED.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE TODAY,
RESULTING IN BREEZY AND DRIER CONDITIONS.
A MODEST NORTHWEST PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BUILD AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL CREATE BREEZY
CONDITIONS, WITH NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING TO 10-15 MPH WITH
GUSTS OF 20-30 MPH THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN MILD, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S IN MOST
AREAS AS THE COOLER AIRMASS LAGS SLIGHTLY BEHIND THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND DOWNSLOPING GIVES US AN ADIABATIC WARMING BOOST.
TONIGHT WILL BE BY FAR THE COOLEST SO FAR THIS SEASON, AS
TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE 40S IN MANY AREAS BY DAWN TUESDAY.
COASTAL AREAS AND THE PHILLY URBAN CORE WILL LIKELY STAY CLOSER
TO 50 DEGREES, AND AREAS NORTH OF I-78 WILL DROP INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 30S IN SOME SPOTS. THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY FROST IN
THE SHELTERED VALLEYS OF NW NJ AND THE SOUTHERN POCONOS, BUT
CONFIDENCE ON THIS IS SOMEWHAT LOW GIVE THE GRADIENT WIND THAT
WILL STILL BE IN PLACE. THIS SHOULD HELP PREVENT STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND THUS TEMPERATURES FROM BOTTOMING OUT
TOO MUCH.
KEY MESSAGE 2...TRANQUIL WEATHER EXPECTED THIS WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER HAZARDS ANTICIPATED.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK
RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLEAR/SUNNY SKIES AND SEASONABLY COOL TO
MILD TEMPERATURES. THE FIRST NOTABLY COOL CANADIAN AIRMASS OF
THE SEASON WILL SETTLE INTO THE AREA BY TUESDAY. HIGHS ON
TUESDAY WILL ONLY GET INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S, WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING DROPPING INTO THE UPPER
30S AND LOW TO MID 40S.
FORECAST TEMPERATURES ARE HIGH ENOUGH TO NOT NEED ANY FROST
HEADLINES JUST YET. THE RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP TUESDAY NIGHT
IS NOT THE MOST IDEAL. WHILE SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO
CALM, WINDS NOT FAR ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL BE MODEST AND
BEGINNING TO ADVECT HIGHER MOISTURE AIR THAT IS CLOSER TO
SATURATION ALOFT INTO THE AREA. THIS COMBINED WITH REBOUNDING
DEWPOINTS SHOULD WORK TO SUPPRESS STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING
DESPITE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT SURFACE WINDS.
NEVERTHELESS, THERE COULD CERTAINLY BE AT LEAST SOME PATCHY
FROST IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS OF NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY AND THE
SOUTHERN POCONOS, WHERE TEMPERATURES COULD LOCALLY DROP INTO THE
MID 30S.
AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE BY WEDNESDAY, AIRMASS
MODIFICATION WILL COMMENCE. TEMPERATURES RETURN TO MORE
SEASONABLE VALUES ON WEDNESDAY, AND LIKELY GO ABOVE NORMAL ON
THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. TEMPERATURES LOOK
TO RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL AGAIN FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
IT SHOULD BE AN EXTENDED STRETCH OF PLEASANT WEATHER DAYS.
AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
TODAY...ANY RESTRICTIONS IN LOW CLOUDS ENDING BY 13Z, THEN VFR.
NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING TO 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25
KTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
TONIGHT...VFR/SKC. NORTHWEST WINDS NEAR 10 KTS EARLY
DIMINISHING TO NEAR 5 KTS OVERNIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
MARINE
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS FOR ALL OF THE ATLANTIC
COASTAL WATERS FOR 4-6 FOOT SEAS. SEAS SHOULD DIMINISH SOME
OVERNIGHT AS THE ENE WINDS LESSEN, AND SOME AREAS MAY DROP BELOW
5 FEET FOR A FEW HOURS EARLY THIS MORNING.
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS EXTENDED INTO TONIGHT FOR ALL OF
THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS. A NEW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS
ISSUED FOR DELAWARE BAY STARTING 10 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED THAT NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS, ESPECIALLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. FOR THE ATLANTIC
COASTAL WATERS, GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS MAY PERSIST OVERNIGHT,
ESPECIALLY NORTH OF BARNEGAT LIGHT WHERE THAT ADVISORY WAS
EXTENDED THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY. SEAS LINGERING NEAR 3-5 FEET
TODAY. ASIDE FROM THE BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS, FAIR WEATHER IS
EXPECTED.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...NO MARINE HAZARDS EXPECTED.
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ430-431.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ450-451.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ452>455.
DISCUSSION...HOEFLICH/STAARMANN
AVIATION...STAARMANN
MARINE...STAARMANN
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