541
FXUS61 KPHI 130714
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
314 AM EDT MON APR 13 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN RECORDS POTENTIALLY
BEING SET, MAINLY ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, WHERE THE I-95
CORRIDOR AND DELMARVA COULD SEE THEIR FIRST 90 DEGREE DAYS OF
THE YEAR.
KEY MESSAGES
1. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS PERSIST THROUGH TODAY.
2. POTENTIALLY RECORD BREAKING WARMTH IS POSSIBLE THIS
WEEK WITH VERY WARM AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUING THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS PERSIST THROUGH TODAY.
AN ELEVATED RISK FOR FIRE SPREAD CONTINUES THROUGH TODAY.
AFTER A DRY SUNDAY, MOISTURE BEGINS TO SNEAK BACK IN TODAY, BUT
THE WINDS WILL INCREASE AS WELL. SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE FORECAST
TO GUST UP TO 25-35 MPH BY THE AFTERNOON, WHICH ARE HIGHLY
CONCERNING FOR FIRE SPREAD. THAT SAID, MINIMUM RH VALUES ARE
ONLY EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 35-50% RANGE, NOTICEABLY HIGHER
THAN THE LAST FEW DRY DAYS. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL GRAZE THE
REGION DURING THE DAY AS WELL, BRINGING HIGH CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR A LIGHT SHOWER, MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE I-95
CORRIDOR, THOUGH A STRAY SHOWER CAN'T BE RULED OUT FURTHER SOUTH
AND EAST.
KEY MESSAGE 2....POTENTIALLY RECORD BREAKING WARMTH IS POSSIBLE THIS
WEEK WITH VERY WARM AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUING THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
A SIGNIFICANT WARM UP IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR RECORD BREAKING
TEMPERATURES.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE WARM
FRONT WELL NORTH OF THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION BY TUESDAY, CONTINUED
WARMTH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. VERY WARM AIR ALOFT COUPLED WITH
WARM AIR AT SURFACE LEVELS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO BE AS MUCH AS
15 TO 30 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE THIS WEEK. AS OF NOW, EXPECTING HIGHS
IN THE LOW TO MID 80S ON TUESDAY, WITH UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S ON
WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO THURSDAY (SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW
REGARDING POTENTIAL RECORD BREAKING TEMPERATURES).
IF TEMPERATURES TOUCH 90F, IT WOULD BE THE FIRST 90 DEGREE DAY OF
THE YEAR AND FIRST SINCE EARLY SEPTEMBER. AS IS TYPICAL IN
SPRING THOUGH, TEMPERATURES ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST WILL BE
SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER DUE TO THE COLDER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
AND DIURNAL SEA BREEZE. WHILE A WEAK SURFACE FRONT PASSES
THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING, TEMPERATURES
WILL STAY WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPS
MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.
NOT ONLY WILL IT BE VERY WARM OVER THE COURSE OF THE WEEK, BUT IT
WILL ALSO REMAIN MAINLY DRY. THIS IS OF ELEVATED CONCERN FOR ONGOING
DROUGHT/ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA, WHICH WILL
LIKELY ONLY GET WORSE AFTER THIS WEEK. A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL
PASS BY TO THE NORTH DURING THE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY TIMEFRAME,
BUT OTHER THAN A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM EACH AFTERNOON NORTH
OF THE I-78 CORRIDOR, NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED. FLOW WILL
GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST, WHICH IS MORE FAVORABLE IN TERMS
OF MOISTURE, WHICH LIKELY WILL LIMIT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH
THIS WEEK. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AFTER TODAY AS WELL, ALSO
ANOTHER LIMITING FACTOR. SO, EVEN THOUGH IT WILL BE WARM AND DRY,
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE MINIMAL.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
EARLY THIS MORNING...MAINLY VFR. BRIEF PERIODS OF LOW STRATUS
AROUND 2 KFT POSSIBLE, MOST LIKELY AT KRDG/KABE/KTTN. SOUTH OR
SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5-10 KTS WITH A FEW GUSTS AROUND 15 KTS.
LLWS WITH WINDS AROUND 40-45 KTS DEVELOPING AT 2 KFT. MODERATE-
HIGH CONFIDENCE.
TODAY...PRIMARILY VFR. CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS AT KRDG/KABE
(25%-35%) IN THE AFTERNOON, THOUGH ANY IMPACTS WILL BE BRIEF AND
LIMITED. SOUTHWEST WINDS 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 KTS
ANTICIPATED. MODERATE-HIGH CONFIDENCE.
TONIGHT...PRIMARILY VFR. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AROUND 5-10 KTS
DECREASING TO AROUND 5 KNOTS OR LESS LATE IN THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. MODERATE-HIGH CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PRIMARILY VFR. CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS (20-30%) IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR
THE I-95 AND LEHIGH VALLEY TERMINALS.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER.
MARINE
SCA CONDITIONS DEVELOP EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS
AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 KNOTS AND SEAS BUILDING TO
4-6 FEET, PEAKING THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS AND SEAS THEN BEGIN TO
DECREASE LATER THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ATLANTIC OCEAN COASTAL WATERS FROM EARLY
THIS MORNING THROUGH TONIGHT AS A RESULT.
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE DELAWARE BAY, BUT GUSTS
AROUND 20 KTS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES EXPECTED.
CLIMATE
WARM TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL ARE EXPECTED FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEK. WEDNESDAY IS CURRENTLY PROJECTED TO BE THE WARMEST DAY,
THOUGH TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY COULD SEE SOME RECORDS BROKEN
DEPENDING ON THE SITE. BELOW ARE RECORD HIGHS AND RECORD HIGH
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR APRIL 14TH THROUGH APRIL 16TH.
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
APRIL 14
SITE RECORD/YEAR
ALLENTOWN (ABE) 88/2023
AC AIRPORT (ACY) 86/1945
AC MARINA (55N) 90/1941
GEORGETOWN (GED) 87/1977
MOUNT POCONO (MPO) 84/2023
PHILADELPHIA (PHL) 91/1941
READING (RDG) 90/1941
TRENTON (TTN) 89/1941
WILMINGTON (ILG) 87/1941
RECORD WARMEST LOW TEMPERATURES
APRIL 14
SITE RECORD/YEAR
ALLENTOWN (ABE) 61/2014
AC AIRPORT (ACY) 63/2023
AC MARINA (55N) 60/2023
GEORGETOWN (GED) 65/2019
MOUNT POCONO (MPO) 56/2014
PHILADELPHIA (PHL) 62/2014
READING (RDG) 64/2014
TRENTON (TTN) 62/2014
WILMINGTON (ILG) 60/2014
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
APRIL 15
SITE RECORD/YEAR
ALLENTOWN (ABE) 86/1941 & 1994
AC AIRPORT (ACY) 90/1967
AC MARINA (55N) 86/1941
GEORGETOWN (GED) 86/1960 & 2024
MOUNT POCONO (MPO) 82/1941
PHILADELPHIA (PHL) 88/1941
READING (RDG) 86/1941 & 1994
TRENTON (TTN) 87/1994
WILMINGTON (ILG) 86/1896
RECORD WARMEST LOW TEMPERATURES
APRIL 15
SITE RECORD/YEAR
ALLENTOWN (ABE) 59/2002
AC AIRPORT (ACY) 61/2002
AC MARINA (55N) 59/2006
GEORGETOWN (GED) 65/2002
MOUNT POCONO (MPO) 58/2002
PHILADELPHIA (PHL) 64/2002
READING (RDG) 64/1938
TRENTON (TTN) 63/2002
WILMINGTON (ILG) 62/2002
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
APRIL 16
SITE RECORD/YEAR
ALLENTOWN (ABE) 90/2012
AC AIRPORT (ACY) 89/2002
AC MARINA (55N) 88/2002
GEORGETOWN (GED) 89/2002
MOUNT POCONO (MPO) 85/2002
PHILADELPHIA (PHL) 90/2002
READING (RDG) 90/2012
TRENTON (TTN) 91/2012
WILMINGTON (ILG) 92/1896
RECORD WARMEST LOW TEMPERATURES
APRIL 16
SITE RECORD/YEAR
ALLENTOWN (ABE) 60/1941
AC AIRPORT (ACY) 62/2002
AC MARINA (55N) 64/2002
GEORGETOWN (GED) 65/2012
MOUNT POCONO (MPO) 56/2002
PHILADELPHIA (PHL) 62/2002
READING (RDG) 65/1941
TRENTON (TTN) 62/2002
WILMINGTON (ILG) 63/2002
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM EDT
TUESDAY FOR ANZ450.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ451>455.
DISCUSSION...AKL/DESILVA/HOEFLICH
AVIATION...AKL/HOEFLICH
MARINE...AKL/HOEFLICH
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