631
FXUS61 KPHI 260839
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
439 AM EDT SAT SEP 26 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
KEY MESSAGES REGARDING COASTAL FLOODING IMPACTS WERE UPDATED.
STRONG NOR'EASTER CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AND MOVE TOWARDS OUR
COASTAL WATERS.
MARINE ZONE OF LOWER DELAWARE BAY WAS UPGRADED TO A STORM
WARNING.
KEY MESSAGES
1. A DEVELOPING NOR'EASTER EAST OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST LIFTS
TO THE NORTH, THEN RETROGRADES BACK TOWARDS NEW JERSEY OVER THE
WEEKEND BEFORE FINALLY DEPARTING ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING
PERIODS OF RAIN AND STRONG WINDS AT THE COAST TO THE REGION.
2. MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SIGNIFICANT TIDAL FLOODING EXPECTED INTO
THIS WEEKEND. MAJOR COASTAL FLOOD LEVELS EXPECTED FOR NEW JERSEY
ATLANTIC COAST, DELAWARE ATLANTIC COAST, AND PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN DELAWARE BAY.
3. DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS AND HIGH SURF ARE EXPECTED AT THE
JERSEY SHORE AND DELAWARE BEACHES THROUGH SUNDAY. BEACH EROSION
IS LIKELY AND BREACHING OF SAND DUNES IS POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...A DEVELOPING NOR'EASTER EAST OF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST LIFTS TO THE NORTH, THEN RETROGRADES BACK TOWARDS NEW JERSEY
OVER THE WEEKEND BEFORE FINALLY DEPARTING ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL
BRING PERIODS OF RAIN AND STRONG WINDS AT THE COAST TO THE REGION.
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER EASTERN CANADA AND EXTENDS
BACK INTO THE GREAT LAKES. WHILE THE HIGH WILL WEAKEN AND LIFT INTO
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE PROVINCE OF QUEBEC, IT WILL STILL BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO CREATE A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN IT AND LOW PRESSURE
EAST OF THE MID-ATLANTIC. THE TREND WITH THE LAST RUN OF MODELS HAS
BEEN TO BRING THE STORM CLOSER TO THE SHORE, AND EVEN HAVE THE CENTER
OF THE NOR'EASTER MOVE INTO NEW JERSEY SATURDAY NIGHT.
A TIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS TONIGHT AND
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THIS NOR'EASTER RETROGRADES
BACK TOWARDS NEW JERSEY SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. WINDS
INCREASE TONIGHT, GENERALLY TO 25 TO 35 MPH WITH 40 TO 50 MPH
INLAND, AND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH AT THE COAST. WILL KEEP HIGH WIND
WARNINGS AND WIND ADVISORIES IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT,
BUT ADDITIONAL HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED ON SUNDAY DEPENDING ON
THE STRENGTH AND POSITION OF THE LOW ON SUNDAY. THIS TREND MAY
RESULT IN STRONGER WINDS FARTHER WEST AS WELL. GIVEN THAT TREES
STILL HAVE THEIR LEAVES, THE COMBINATION OF THESE WINDS AND
HEAVY RAIN (MORE ON THAT IN A BIT) WILL RESULT IN TREE DAMAGE,
AS WELL AS POWER LINE AND POTENTIALLY ROOF DAMAGE WITH HIGHEST
IMPACTS AT THE COAST.
THE FARTHER INLAND TREND ALSO RESULTS IN HIGHER POPS INLAND AS WELL
AS AND HIGHER RAINFALL OVER THE AREA. RAIN SPREADS INTO THE REGION
FROM EAST TO WEST THROUGH SATURDAY. POPS WILL BE 60 TO 70
PERCENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN POCONOS, LEHIGH VALLEY, AND FAR
NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY AND 80 TO 90 PERCENT ACROSS THE REST OF NEW
JERSEY, SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA, AND DELMARVA. POPS WILL THEN BE
90 TO 100 PERCENT ACROSS THE WHOLE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OF QPF ALONG THE I-95
CORRIDOR AND POINTS NORTH AND WEST WITH AS MUCH AS 3 INCHES
OVER MUCH OF EASTERN NEW JERSEY WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE. THIS WILL BE OVER A 48 TO 60 HOUR TIMEFRAME, SO
WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOR ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME, THOUGH
THERE MAY BE SOME FLOODING CONCERNS BY LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. IN ADDITION, RUNOFF FROM THIS RAIN MAY EXACERBATE COASTAL
FLOODING, WHICH WILL BE COVERED BY COASTAL FLOOD WARNINGS.
CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY AT THE
COAST, DURING THIS TIME.
KEY MESSAGE 2...MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SIGNIFICANT TIDAL FLOODING
EXPECTED INTO THIS WEEKEND. MAJOR COASTAL FLOOD LEVELS ARE NOW
EXPECTED FOR THE NEW JERSEY ATLANTIC COAST, THE DELAWARE
ATLANTIC COAST, AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN DELAWARE
BAY.
WITH A SLOW MOVING NOR'EASTER AND MULTIPLE DAYS OF STRONG
NORTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED, THE CONFIDENCE IN THE THREAT FOR TIDAL
FLOODING REMAINS HIGH. IN FACT, THE THREAT FOR THE NEW JERSEY
ATLANTIC COAST, DELAWARE ATLANTIC COAST, AND PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN DELAWARE BAY TO REACH MAJOR FLOOD LEVELS AROUND THE
TIME OF HIGH TIDE SATURDAY MORNING HAS INCREASED ONCE AGAIN, SO
WE HAVE INCREASED THE FORECAST FOR THESE AREAS TO EXCEED MAJOR
FLOOD LEVELS. STRONG ONSHORE FLOW THAT HAS PERSISTED FOR SEVERAL
DAYS IS RESULTING IN WATER PILING UP ACROSS TIDAL TRIBUTARIES
AND WITHIN BACK BAYS OF COASTAL COMMUNITIES. TIDAL LEVELS WILL
ALSO BE ENHANCED WITH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES INCREASING WITH THE
UPCOMING FULL MOON SATURDAY.
FOR DELAWARE BAY COMMUNITIES, NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS WILL KEEP
PUSHING WATER TO THE WEST SIDE OF THE BAY AND ONTO THE DELAWARE
COAST. THIS WILL INCREASE THE FORECAST FOR MAJOR FLOOD LEVELS
AROUND SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL DELAWARE. THE COASTAL FLOOD WARNING
REMAINS 2 AM SUNDAY FOR KENT AND SUSSEX, DE. MODERATE FLOOD
LEVELS ARE FORECASTED FOR CUMBERLAND AND SALEM, NJ AS WELL AS
NEW CASTLE, DE, SO THE WARNING REMAINS ACROSS THESE AREAS.
FOR THE TIDAL DELAWARE RIVER, WIDESPREAD MINOR TIDAL FLOODING
CONTINUES TO BE FORECAST, SO THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS
IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT FOR THE TIDAL DELAWARE RIVER.
WHILE NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED, WE CANNOT RULE OUT MODERATE TIDAL
FLOODING GETTING TO DELAWARE RIVER COMMUNITIES.
AS MENTIONED ABOVE, MORE NORTH/NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL LIMIT
THE TIDAL FLOODING THREAT FOR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY. SOME SPOTTY
MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT CLAIBORNE, BUT NOTHING
HIGHER THAN THAT AT THIS TIME.
KEY MESSAGE 3...DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS AND HIGH SURF ARE
EXPECTED AT THE JERSEY SHORE AND DELAWARE BEACHES THROUGH
SUNDAY. BEACH EROSION IS LIKELY AND BREACHING OF SAND DUNES IS
POSSIBLE.
A NOR'EASTER OFF OUR COAST WILL BRING STRONG NORTH TO NORTHEAST
WINDS AND HIGH SEAS FOR OUR MARINE ZONES. BREAKING WAVES WITHIN
THE SURF ZONE OF 6 TO 12 FEET ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.
DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS WILL ACCOMPANY THE HIGH SURF, MAKING IT
EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TO ENTER THE WATER AT ANY TIME THROUGH
SUNDAY. THE HIGH SURF AND STRONG WINDS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
AREAS OF BEACH EROSION ACROSS THE JERSEY SHORE AND DELAWARE
BEACHES. LARGE BREAKING WAVES IN THE SURF ZONE AND HIGH WATER
LEVELS MAY RESULT IN BREACHING OF SAND DUNES.
THE HIGH RISK FOR LIFE THREATENING RIP CURRENTS REMAINS IN EFFECT
THROUGH SUNDAY FOR ALL BEACHES. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT
FOR ALL BEACHES THROUGH SUNDAY AS WELL.
AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
REST OF TONIGHT (THROUGH 12Z)...MOST TERMINALS LINGER AT VFR
THROUGH DAYBREAK WITH SLOW INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND RAINS FROM
EAST TO WEST. KACY/KMIV WILL GO MVFR BY 08-10Z THEN THE LOWER
CONDITIONS CONTINUE SLOWLY WEST TOWARDS OTHER SITES SAT MORNING.
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS 15 TO 25 KTS WITH GUSTS 30-40 KTS.
CANNOT RULE OUT AN OCCASIONAL GUST OVER 40 KTS ALONG THE I-95
TERMINALS AND EAST, PARTICULARLY WHEN SHOWERS ARRIVE. LIGHTER
WINDS FOR KABE/KRDG. MEDIUM CONFID.
SATURDAY...MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP, BUT IFR CONDITIONS ALONG
THE NEW JERSEY COAST. AREAS OF RAIN ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE
DELAWARE RIVER. WINDS NORTHERLY 15 TO 25 KNOTS GUSTS TO 30-40
KNOTS. COASTAL LOCATIONS GUSTING TO 40+ KNOTS.
SATURDAY NIGHT...WIDESPREAD MVFR AND IFR CONDS IN RAIN, FOG,
AND LOW CIGS. A FEW TSRA MAY IMPACT KACY AND POSSIBLY KMIV. N TO
NE WINDS 15 TO 20 KT WITH 30 TO 35 KT GUSTS INLAND AND GUSTS AS
HIGH AS 50 KT FROM TIME TO TIME AT KACY.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...WIDESPREAD MVFR AND IFR CONDS IN RAIN, FOG, AND LOW
CIGS CONTINUES. N TO NE WINDS 15 TO 20 KT WITH 30 TO 35 KT
GUSTS.
SUNDAY NIGHT...CONTINUED MVFR/IFR CONDS IN LINGERING SHRA.
DIMINISHING WINDS.
MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO MVFR, THEN
TO VFR LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...VFR.
MARINE
THE LOWER DELAWARE BAY WAS UPGRADED TO A STORM WARNING.
WIDESPREAD STORM FORCE WINDS ON THE NEARSHORE AND OFFSHORE
WATERS AS WELL AS THE LOWER DELAWARE BAY CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY AND INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. GALE FORCE WINDS FOR THE
UPPER DELAWARE BAY. FOR NOW, WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT, BUT ADDITIONAL HEADLINES ARE LIKELY TO BE NEEDED
SUNDAY AND POSSIBLY SUNDAY NIGHT.
ON THE OCEAN, WINDS WILL AVERAGE 35 TO 45 KT WITH GUSTS AS HIGH
AS 60 KT. ON THE DELAWARE BAY, WINDS WILL AVERAGE 20 TO 30 KT
WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 45 KT FOR THE UPPER BAY AND UP TO 50 KT
FOR THE LOWER BAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
SEAS WILL BE VERY ROUGH, AS HIGH AS 15 TO 20 FT ON THE OCEAN
DURING THIS TIME. VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN RAIN.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...WIDESPREAD GALES EXPECTED WITH GUSTS OF 35-45 KTS,
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING BELOW GALE CRITERIA THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 8-12 FEET EARLY DIMINISH TO 6-8 FEET LATE.
SUNDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE CONSIDERABLY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS LIKELY.
MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO IMPROVE. SEAS MAY
REMAIN ABOVE ADVISORY LEVELS WHILE WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH
BELOW 25 KNOTS.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BE BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS.
RIP CURRENTS...PLEASE SEE KEY MESSAGE 3 ABOVE.
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR PAZ070-071-101>106.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR PAZ070-071-
106.
NJ...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR NJZ008>010-012-013-
015>023-027.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 3 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR NJZ016.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR NJZ012>014-
020>027.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR NJZ014-024>026.
HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR NJZ014-
024>026.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR NJZ014-024>026.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR NJZ017>019.
DE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR DEZ001>003.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 3 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR DEZ001.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR DEZ002>004.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR DEZ004.
HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR DEZ004.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR DEZ004.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ430.
STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ431-454-455.
STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ450>453-480>483.
STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ485.
DISCUSSION...MJL
AVIATION...MJL
MARINE...MJL
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