264
FXUS61 KPHI 252314
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
614 PM EST WED FEB 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO CAPE MAY IS NO
LONGER IN EFFECT. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
UNTIL 1 AM FOR COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF CAPE MAY.
POTENTIAL FOR WINTRY WEATHER WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT CONTINUES TO DIMINISH.
KEY MESSAGES
1. LOW PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTH OF THE REGION THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT, BRINGING A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW.
2. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE MAY MOVE INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT
WEEK, PRODUCING ANOTHER CHANCE OF WINTRY WEATHER.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...LOW PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTH OF THE REGION
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT, BRINGING A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND
SNOW.
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WEST-TO-EAST SOUTH OF THE REGION
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER OPPORTUNITY
FOR SOME WINTRY WEATHER AS WE'LL HAVE MARGINALLY COLD AIR IN PLACE
BEHIND WEDNESDAY MORNING'S SYSTEM. THE LATEST TRENDS, HOWEVER,
CONTINUES TO NUDGE THE SYSTEM FURTHER SOUTH, LESSENING THE RISK OF A
SIGNIFICANT INTERSECTION OF COLDER AIR AND PRECIPITATION, WITH
THE GFS AND FV3 BEING NOTABLE EXCEPTIONS. THUS, FOR THE MOMENT
WE HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW ACROSS
OUR NORTHERN TIER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH CHANCE
POPS OF RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS A CENTRAL SLICE OF THE CWA
INCLUDING PHILADELPHIA. FURTHER SOUTH, WE DO HAVE SOME LIKELY
POPS, BUT AT THIS POINT TEMPS LOOK WARM ENOUGH FOR PLAIN RAIN
ACROSS THE DELMARVA AND FAR SOUTHERN NJ. WE'LL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR, BUT AT THIS TIME THIS MAINLY LOOKS LIKE A SUB ADVISORY
EVENT SHOULD IT OCCUR, AND ITS POSSIBLE LITTLE OR NO WINTRY
PRECIP OCCURS. THE OFFICIAL SNOWFALL FORECAST RETAINS NO
ACTUAL SNOWFALL, GIVEN THE LOW PROBABILITY OF ANY OCCURRING.
KEY MESSAGE 2...ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE MAY MOVE INTO THE REGION
EARLY NEXT WEEK, PRODUCING ANOTHER CHANCE OF WINTRY WEATHER.
MILDER WEATHER WILL PREVAIL OVER THE WEEKEND IN THE WAKE OF THE
THURSDAY NIGHT SYSTEM, WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S FOR MUCH OF THE REGION
FRIDAY-SUNDAY AND POSSIBLY TOPPING 50 IN SOME AREAS SATURDAY. THIS
SHOULD HELP MELT SOME OF THE EXISTING SNOW PACK.
HOWEVER, A FRONT WILL SEND MORE COLD AIR INTO THE REGION LATER
SUNDAY, AND HOT ON ITS HEALS SOME GUIDANCE DEPICTS A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE RIDING EASTWARD INTO THE REGION FOR MONDAY. WITH
FRESH COLD AIR IN PLACE, MORE WINTRY WEATHER IS CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE. GUIDANCE IS HAVING TROUBLE WITH HANDLING MULTIPLE
PIECES OF ENERGY, WITH SOME MODELS SHOWING MULTIPLE WAVES,
WHILE OTHERS FOCUS ON JUST ONE, BUT SUFFICE IT TO SAY, THERE IS
A RISK OF WINTRY WEATHER MONDAY AND TUESDAY. ONE NOTABLE TREND
IN OUR FAVOR IS THAT MOST GUIDANCE DOES SHOW A WARMING TREND AS
THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH, SUCH THAT TOWARDS MID-WEEK WE SHOULD
MOSTLY BE TOO WARM FOR ANYTHING BUT RAIN. WE MAY HAVE SEVERAL
INCHES OF SNOW TO GET THROUGH BEFORE THEN, HOWEVER. WE'LL BE
WATCHING THIS ONE CLOSELY FOR POTENTIAL HEADLINES.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
TONIGHT...VFR. S-SW WINDS 5 TO 10 KT, BECOMING W-NW AROUND 5 KT
AROUND 06Z. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN PREVAILING VFR, MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF WIND SHIFTS.
THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR, BUT MVFR OR LOWER CONDS POSSIBLE,
MOSTLY AT KMIV/KACY AFTER 18Z. SUB-VFR CONDS MAY STRETCH AS FAR
NORTH AS KTTN, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THAT HAPPENING. NW
WINDS, BECOMING N OR EVEN NE AT 5 TO 10 KT. LOW CONFIDENCE ON
SUB-VFR CONDS.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE DUE TO RAIN AND SNOW
POTENTIAL.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR.
MARINE
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT FOR THE OCEAN
WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO CAPE MAY. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 10 KT WITH SEAS 2 TO 4 FT.
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 1 AM
THURSDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF CAPE MAY AS 5 TO 6 FOOT
SEAS COULD LINGER A BIT LONGER. AFTER 1 AM, SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FEET
EXPECTED WITH WINDS OUT OF THE WEST AROUND 10 KT.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY SUB-SCA CONDITIONS. VSBY
RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW AND RAIN.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.
CLIMATE
STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL FROM THE SUNDAY-MONDAY STORM RANKED 16TH
BIGGEST ON RECORD IN PHILADELPHIA, 10TH BIGGEST IN TRENTON AND
7TH BIGGEST IN ATLANTIC CITY IF WE INCLUDE THE DOWNTOWN STATION
DATA, 6TH IF WE EXCLUDE IT (TYPICALLY WE EXCLUDE DOWNTOWN BECAUSE
THE AIRPORT'S CLIMATE CAN BE NOTABLY DIFFERENT 10 MILES INLAND).
SINCE WE ARE NOW OUTSIDE OUR MAIN BIG SNOWSTORM WINDOW (MID-JAN
TO MID-FEB), IT TURNS OUT THIS WAS THE BIGGEST STORM FOR SO
LATE IN THE YEAR SINCE 1958 IN TRENTON, 1915 IN PHILADELPHIA,
AND *EVER RECORDED* IN ATLANTIC CITY, EVEN WHEN WE INCLUDE THE
DOWNTOWN STATION DATA. FOR PHILADELPHIA AND TRENTON, IT WAS THE
BIGGEST SNOWSTORM SINCE 2016, WHILE IN ATLANTIC CITY IT WAS THE
BIGGEST SINCE 2010. FOR PHILADELPHIA AND TRENTON, IT WAS THE
FIRST TIME A FOOT OR MORE OF SNOW FELL AFTER MID-FEBRUARY SINCE
THE MARCH 1993 STORM.
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ450>453.
DISCUSSION...RCM
AVIATION...HOEFLICH/MPS/RCM
MARINE...HOEFLICH/MPS/RCM
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