869
FXUS61 KPHI 231825
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
225 PM EDT SUN AUG 23 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION FOR THE 06Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
1. A DRIER AIRMASS SPREADS INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
2. FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN LATER SUNDAY AND SHOULD
PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
3. MORE UNSETTLED TO END THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...A DRIER AIRMASS SPREADS INTO THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON.
IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT THAT IS PASSING OFFSHORE THIS
AFTERNOON, A DRIER AIRMASS CONTINUES TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION
WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS DROPPING FROM THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70
TO THE LOW 60. CAN'T FULLY RULE OUT A SPOT SHOWER OR TWO WITH
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVERHEAD, PARTICULARLY ACROSS
NORTHERN NJ AND THE POCONOS, BUT IT WILL REMAIN LARGELY DRY FOR
THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST.
KEY MESSAGE 2...FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN LATER SUNDAY
AND SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
MORE ZONAL FLOW WITH SOME SUBTLE RIDGING MOVES IN FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEK. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINLY BE
IN CONTROL, RESULTING IN DRY AND TRANQUIL WEATHER THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SEASONABLE THROUGH THIS
STRETCH.
KEY MESSAGE 3...MORE UNSETTLED TO END THE WEEK.
BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE WITH
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW, HELPING BRING DEW POINTS BACK INTO THE
LOW-70S. BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL ALLOW A SURFACE LOW TO
MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE REGION, BRINGING OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION. STILL A BIT FAR OUT FOR SPECIFICS AT THIS TIME,
HOWEVER.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
REST OF TODAY...VFR. W 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT IN
THE AFTERNOON. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
TONIGHT...VFR. LGT/VRB WINDS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MONDAY...VFR. W TO WSW WINDS AROUND 10 KTS GUSTS UP TO 15-20
KTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...VFR EXPECTED MOST OF THE TIME.
MARINE
NO MARINE HEADLINES EXPECTED.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES EXPECTED.
FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED.
RIP CURRENTS...
TODAY...EAST TO SOUTHEAST 10 TO 15 MPH WINDS THIS MORNING, TURN
TO THE SOUTHWEST AFTER SUNRISE, THEN WEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 20
MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. BREAKING WAVES WILL BE 1 TO 2 FEET WITH
LIGHT SOUTHERLY SWELLS WITH A 6 TO 8 SECOND PERIOD. AS A RESULT,
THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF DANGEROUS AND LIFE
THREATENING RIP CURRENTS AT THE JERSEY SHORE AND AT DELAWARE
BEACHES.
ON MONDAY, SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS
UP TO 20 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON WITH BREAKING WAVES OF 1 TO 2
FEET. THERE WILL BE LIGHT SOUTHERLY SWELLS WITH A PERIOD OF 6 TO
8 SECONDS. AS A RESULT, THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF DANGEROUS AND LIFE THREATENING RIP CURRENTS AT THE JERSEY
SHORE AND AT DELAWARE BEACHES.
FOR SPECIFIC BEACH FORECASTS, VISIT WEATHER.GOV/BEACH/PHI
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MJL/MPS
AVIATION...MJL/MPS
MARINE...MJL/MPS
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