591
FXUS61 KPHI 140544
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
144 AM EDT THU MAY 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN CANCELLED.
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 06Z TAFS.
UPDATED NEAR TERM KEY MESSAGE.
KEY MESSAGES
1. A SLOW MOVING FRONT AND AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.
2. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TAKE OVER BEGINNING THIS WEEKEND,
WITH TEMPERATURES POTENTIALLY CLIMBING TOWARDS THE 90S NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...A SLOW MOVING FRONT AND AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.
A COLD FRONT WHICH CROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT WILL LINGER NEAR THE
SHORE THIS MORNING BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE LATER. AN UPPER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL DEVELOP SOUTH/EAST
ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THE DAY. THIS WILL KEEP UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS FOR OUR AREA WITH MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN TODAY AND A
FEW SHOWERS AROUND.
THE LINGERING SHOWERS EARLY IN THE DAY WILL BE MOSTLY NEAR THE
COAST WITH SOME ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN THE
AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF NE PA AND NORTHERN NJ DUE TO THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW. IT WILL BE COOLER WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS
AROUND AND HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 60S.
KEY MESSAGE 2...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TAKE OVER BEGINNING THIS
WEEKEND, WITH TEMPERATURES POTENTIALLY CLIMBING TOWARDS THE 90S NEXT
WEEK.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE EASTERN US THIS WEEKEND AND
INTO NEXT WEEK, BRINGING A PERIOD OF ABOVE NORMAL AND SUMMER-LIKE
TEMPERATURES. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC ANCHORS OFF THE COAST OF THE MID ATLANTIC. THIS WILL RESULT
IN A WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW FOR SEVERAL DAYS AND GRADUALLY WARMING
TEMPERATURES FROM SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THE
NBM HAS BEEN RUNNING A BIT WARM LATELY, TEMPERATURES WERE LOWERED
SLIGHTLY SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS MOST OF THE DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE HAS HIGHS A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN WHAT THE NEWEST NBM HAD.
REGARDLESS, IT WILL BE QUITE WARM IN THE EXTENDED TO BORDERLINE HOT.
SATURDAY WILL FEATURE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S, WITH SUNDAY GETTING INTO
THE LOW TO MID 80S. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO CLIMB FOR MONDAY WITH
MID TO UPPER 80S AND AN OUTSIDE SHOT AT 90. TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE STRETCH WITH UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED. TUESDAY COULD FLIRT WITH HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR
THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND ADJACENT COUNTIES, WHERE THE CURRENT
THRESHOLD THROUGH JUNE IS A HEAT INDEX OF 96 DEGREES F OR
HIGHER. THE HEAT LOOKS TO BREAK DOWN AFTER TUESDAY THOUGH
ANOTHER WARM DAY COULD COME ON WEDNESDAY. IT WILL DEPEND ON WHEN
A COLD FRONT COMES IN SOMETIME MIDWEEK.
OVERALL THIS STRETCH LOOKS MOSTLY DRY. GUIDANCE IS NOW TRYING TO
HINT AT SOME DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THOUGH, MAINLY
ON SUNDAY AS A SHORTWAVE PASSES BY TO THE NORTH. DON'T HAVE MORE
THAN 15-20% POPS IN THOUGH AS FORCING LOOKS WEAK BUT WE WILL HAVE A
BETTER IDEA ONCE WE GET INTO RANGE OF THE CAMS.
AS MENTIONED EARLIER, SOMETIME MID-WEEK NEXT WEEK A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH AND LIKELY BRING AN END TO THE STRETCH OF ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THAT FRONT
BUT TOO EARLY TO SPECULATE ON SPECIFIC IMPACTS OR HAZARDS.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS...
THRU 12Z... MOSTLY VFR BUT MVFR IS POSSIBLE ACROSS NJ AS THE
SLOW MOVING AREA OF SHOWERS CONTINUES. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
MOSTLY. MEDIUM CONFID.
TODAY...VFR BKN SKY CONDITIONS MOST AREAS THRU THE DAY. THERE
MAY BE SOME LINGERING MVFR EARLY FOR KACY/KMIV. ALSO, CLOUDS AND
LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE FOR NORTH NJ AND INTO THE POCONOS THIS
MORNING. WINDS WILL INCREASE AFTER DAYBREAK AND EVENTUALLY
BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS.
MEDIUM CONFID.
TONIGHT... VFR EXPECTED. BKN CLOUDS EARLY THEN SCT CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS. MEDIUM/HIGH
CONFID.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
MARINE
A SLOW MOVING FRONT AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE
WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY. WINDS AND SEAS HAVE DECREASED OVERNIGHT
AND WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS. WINDS
WILL TURN MORE WEST TO NORTHWEST THIS MORNING AND A FEW GUSTS 15
TO 20 KTS ARE POSSIBLE. SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL BE 3 TO 4 FT MUCH
OF THE TIME. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THRU THE MORNING BUT THEN
DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
FRIDAY...CHANCE (20-30%) OF SCA CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN WATERS
AS SEAS COULD NEAR 5 FEET.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...FITZSIMMONS/HOEFLICH/OHARA
AVIATION...FITZSIMMONS/HOEFLICH/MJL/OHARA
MARINE...FITZSIMMONS/HOEFLICH/MJL/OHARA
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