431
FXUS61 KPHI 182351
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
651 PM EST WED FEB 18 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN, DRIZZLE AND FOG ARE EXPECTED AGAIN
TONIGHT, HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS NOT QUITE HIGH ENOUGH FOR ANOTHER
DENSE FOG ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.
KEY MESSAGES
1. OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN, DRIZZLE, MIST AND FOG WILL LINGER
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
2. PERIODS OF RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. SOME WINTRY
MIX/ICE FOR MOSTLY THE I-80 CORRIDOR THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY
MORNING.
3. THE REGION WILL BE ON THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF A POTENTIAL
STORM FORECAST TO BE JUST OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN, DRIZZLE, MIST AND FOG
WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STRADDLED ACROSS THE DELMARVA.
WARM ADVECTION OVERHEAD HAS RESULTED IN PLENTY OF CLOUDS, AND
LINGERING SNOW ON THE GROUND HAS HELPED KEEP IT MURKY AND MISTY
AS IT COOLS AND CONDENSES OUT THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE MOST
EFFICIENTLY. PASSING DISTURBANCE TONIGHT MAY BRING A BIT OF
INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF ACTUAL RAINFALL TONIGHT, WITH POPS
PEAKING THIS EVENING BEFORE DWINDLING TOWARD DAWN. AS THAT
IMPULSE PASSES, REINFORCING SOUTHWESTERLY PUSH BEHIND IT LOOKS
TO DRIVE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR SOUTH AND WEST ACROSS THE REGION
LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING, POTENTIALLY REDUCING LOW
CLOUDS AND MIST/FOG, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA CLOSER TO NYC. AS THAT PUSH OCCURS, THERE MAY BE
A PULSE OF DENSE FOG REDEVELOPMENT EXPANDING SOUTH AND WEST
AHEAD OF IT FOR A BRIEF TIME BEFORE STARTING TO CLEAR BACK OUT,
BUT CONFIDENCE ON LONGEVITY REMAINS LOW SO HAVE NOT YET ISSUED A
NEW DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT. THAT SAID, THE LOW
CLOUDS/FOG/MIST MAY LINGER MOST ACROSS AREAS WEST OF PHILLY LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. WILL ALSO NEED TO KEEP AN
EYE ON THE FAR NORTHERN AREAS, WHERE TEMPS MIGHT TOUCH FREEZING
BEFORE PRECIP IS TOTALLY OUT OF THERE, RESULTING IN A CHANCE OF
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN. OVERALL THOUGH, RAINFALL SHOULD GENERALLY
BE A QUARTER INCH OR LESS, MOST OF IT BEING UP IN THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA, WITH TOTALS FOR THE BULK OF THE
REGION UNDER ONE TENTH INCH. TEMPS CURRENTLY MOSTLY IN THE 40S
WILL DROP BACK INTO THE 30S BEFORE REBOUNDING BACK INTO THE 40S
ON THURSDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...PERIODS OF RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. SOME
WINTRY MIX/ICE FOR MOSTLY THE I-80 CORRIDOR THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CROSS OUR AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. ONE LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
AND DEEPENS WHILE ANOTHER ONE DEVELOPS ALONG A BAROCLINIC ZONE
ACROSS THE MID- ATLANTIC. A ZONE OF WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL RESULT IN SOME OVERRUNNING
PRECIPITATION. IT LOOKS LIKE A QUICK MOVING SYSTEM AND IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT THE ENERGY WITH THIS BECOMES ELONGATED WITH TIME.
PERIODS OF RAIN WILL OCCUR WITH THE BULK OF IT FALLING THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. SOME WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS
ANTICIPATED, MAINLY FOR THE I-80 CORRIDOR. MODEL FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW A WARM LAYER ALOFT RESULTING IN A FREEZING RAIN
THERMAL PROFILE. A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN IS ANTICIPATED
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING, MOSTLY FOR THE I-80
CORRIDOR, ALTHOUGH SOME SNOW/SLEET COULD MIX IN FOR A TIME. AS
OF NOW, ICE ACCRETION FROM A LIGHT GLAZE TO AS MUCH AS 0.20
INCHES IS FORECAST FOR THE SOUTHERN POCONOS AND FAR NORTHWEST
NEW JERSEY. IF THIS CONTINUES TO BE FORECAST, THEN A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE I-80 CORRIDOR. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS, AT THIS TIME, LOOK TO BE AROUND 0.50 INCHES ACROSS THE
REGION. SOME FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE MILDER AND MORE MOIST
AIR OVERRUNS SOME LINGERING CHILLY NEAR-SURFACE AIR, ESPECIALLY
IN AREAS THAT STILL HAVE A SNOWPACK ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-78
CORRIDOR. THERE LOOKS TO BE A SOUTH TO NORTH TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT ACROSS OUR AREA FRIDAY DUE TO THE PLACEMENT OF A WARM
FRONT. MILDER AIR THEN ARRIVES FOR SATURDAY AS THE LOW-LEVEL
FLOW TURNS FROM NORTHEASTERLY TO WESTERLY. MOST PLACES IN THE
COASTAL PLAIN SATURDAY SHOULD GET INTO THE 50S AS CLOUD COVER
BREAKS SOME. A BOUNDARY MAY LINGER LONGER VERY CLOSE TO OUR FAR
NORTHERN ZONES SATURDAY WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE (20 PERCENT)
FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION.
KEY MESSAGE 3...LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE REGION WILL
BE ON THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF A POTENTIAL STORM FORECAST TO BE
JUST OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE
SOUTHEAST OR MID-ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY NIGHT, AND THEN
DEEPENING A FEW HUNDRED MILES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST SUNDAY
INTO EARLY MONDAY BEFORE MOVING EASTWARD ON MONDAY AND OUT TO
SEA. THERE IS A LARGE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW IMPACTFUL
THIS SYSTEM WILL BE TO THE LOCAL REGION WITH SOME GUIDANCE
SUGGESTING LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL IN THE NEW JERSEY-
PHILADELPHIA METRO-DELAWARE REGIONS, AND OTHER GUIDANCE SHOWING
NO SNOW AT ALL OVER THE ENTIRE LOCAL AREA. THAT BEING SAID, AS
IT STANDS CURRENTLY, AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF PHILADELPHIA STILL
HAVE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR IMPACTS FROM ANY SNOW AND WIND
SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY MONDAY.
IN THE WAKE OF THIS STORM, A MUCH COLDER AIR MASS LOOKS TO
SETTLE INTO OUR REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES
PROBABLY DO NOT GET OUT OF THE 30S BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY
(COLDER IN THE POCONOS), WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE TEENS.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
TONIGHT... MORE LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED (OR DEVELOPING IN
THE CASE OF THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS) WITH SOME PATCHY LIGHT RAIN
AND MORE MIST/FOG. LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE.
THURSDAY...IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS IN THE MORNING WITH AREAS OF
PATCHY FOG, POTENTIALLY LIFTING TO MVFR IN THE AFTERNOON. LOW
CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY IFR CONDITIONS
ALONG WITH PERIODS OF RAIN.
SATURDAY...CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE TO VFR.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...RAIN AND SNOW LIKELY (50-60%) THAT WILL
RESULT IN RESTRICTIONS. NORTH/NORTHEASTERLY WINDS UP TO 25 KTS
SUNDAY BECOMING NORTHWEST ON MONDAY.
MARINE
MAIN CONCERN FOR MARINE WATERS WILL BE INTERVALS OF DENSE FOG
THROUGH AT LEAST TONIGHT. DENSE FOG ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH
TONIGHT BUT MAY NEED EXTENSION INTO THURSDAY. OTHERWISE, WINDS
LOOK TO STAY BELOW 25 KTS AND WAVES MOSTLY BELOW 5 FEET, THOUGH
A FEW MAY TOUCH 5 FEET WELL AWAY FROM SHORE.
REGARDING THE RIVER ICE...THE DELAWARE BAY CONTINUES TO BE
MAINLY ICE FREE OUTSIDE OF SHALLOW NEAR-SHORE AREAS. ICE
COVERAGE REMAINS AROUND 10-30% FROM THE THE DELAWARE MEMORIAL
BRIDGE UP TO THE COMMODORE BARRY BRIDGE. NORTH OF THAT UP
THROUGH PHILADELPHIA, ICE COVERAGE IS AROUND 30-70%.
ICE COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE TO DECLINE WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THE CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. A
PERIOD OF GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE, DEPENDING ON THE
TRACK AND STRENGTH OF A COASTAL STORM MOVING OFFSHORE.
EQUIPMENT
SOME REPLACEMENT PARTS FOR THE KDIX RADAR ARRIVED TODAY, BUT
WHETHER THEY ARE SUFFICIENT TO REPAIR THE SYSTEM REMAINS
UNCERTAIN.
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NJZ001-
007>010-012-015-017>019.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ430-431-
450>455.
DISCUSSION...FRANKLIN/GORSE/RCM
AVIATION...FRANKLIN/GORSE/MJL/RCM
MARINE...FRANKLIN/GORSE/RCM
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