097
FXUS61 KPHI 261958
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
358 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
FROST ADVISORY EXPANDED TO INCLUDE MORE AREAS OUTSIDE OF THE
I-95 CORRIDOR IN NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA.
GALE WARNING CANCELLED AND REPLACED WITH A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR ATLANTIC OCEAN COASTAL WATERS.
KEY MESSAGES
1. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME
AREAS OF FROST AND PATCHY FOG FORECAST FOR PORTIONS OF NEW
JERSEY AND EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA.
2. ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR MUCH-NEEDED RAIN ARRIVE DURING THE
MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH
TONIGHT. SOME AREAS OF FROST AND PATCHY FOG FORECAST FOR
PORTIONS OF NEW JERSEY AND EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA.
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT.
ONGOING CLEARING WILL INCREASE QUICKLY INTO THE NIGHT, RESULTING
IN CLEAR SKIES AND RADIATIONAL COOLING TAKING HOLD. WINDS
SHOULD BECOME LIGHT, FAVORING A NORTHERLY DIRECTION AROUND 5 MPH
OR LESS. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S FOR MOST
AREAS. SHELTERED AREAS ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE VALLEYS OF
NORTHWESTERN NEW JERSEY AND EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA INTO THE OUTER
SUBURBS OF PHILADELPHIA IN PA AND THE PINE BARRENS OF SOUTHERN
NEW JERSEY WILL LIKELY SEE SUFFICIENT COOLING FOR FROST TO
DEVELOP. THE FROST ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO
INCLUDE ALL OF THESE AREAS AS A RESULT. PATCHY FOG MAY ALSO
DEVELOP, PARTICULARLY FOR AREAS NORTHWEST OF I-95 WHERE WINDS
ARE MORE LIKELY TO BE NEAR CALM FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 2...ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR MUCH-NEEDED RAIN ARRIVE
DURING THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK.
A BRIEF PERIOD OF HIGH PRESSURE ON MONDAY, POTENTIALLY LINGERING
INTO TUESDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY THEN APPROACHES THE
REGION LATE TUESDAY, BRINGING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN. THE
CHANCES FOR MEANINGFUL RAINFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM APPEAR TO BE
DECREASING WITH HIGH PRESSURE STAYING CLOSE BY AND THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LARGELY WASHING OUT ACROSS THE REGION. ANOTHER
STRONGER LOW IS STILL EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
EARLY THURSDAY THAT IS EXPECTED TO BRING MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE REGION.
AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
THIS AFTERNOON...MVFR CEILINGS IMPROVING TO VFR. NORTHEAST WINDS 8-
15 KNOTS, WITH SOME GUSTS 20-25 KNOTS ESPECIALLY AT KACY, THEN
DIMINISHING TO 10 KNOTS OR LESS LATE. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
TONIGHT...MAINLY VFR/SKC. SOME LOCAL FOG WITH VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE LATE, ESPECIALLY AT KRDG AND KABE. NORTHEAST
OR NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 KNOTS, BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO
LOCALLY CALM. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MONDAY...SOME LOCAL FOG WITH VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EARLY
ESPECIALLY AT KABE AND KRDG, OTHERWISE VFR. NORTHEAST WINDS
INCREASING TO NEAR 10 KNOTS, THEN BECOMING EAST OR EAST-SOUTHEAST IN
THE AFTERNOON. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT...VFR.
TUESDAY...VFR WITH INCREASING AND LOWERING CLOUDS. A FEW AFTERNOON
OR EVENING SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
WEDNESDAY...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ALONG WITH SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY IN THE
AFTERNOON AND AT NIGHT.
THURSDAY...SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE. MOSTLY VFR. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS
UP TO 20 KNOTS.
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR. WEST-NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS 20-25 KNOTS DURING
THE DAY.
MARINE
WIND GUSTS HAVE DECREASED FASTER THIS AFTERNOON. THEREFORE, THE
GALE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED AND REPLACED WITH A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET NJ SOUTH
TO FENWICK ISLAND DE, OUT TO 20 NM. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
FOR THE DELAWARE BAY WAS ALSO CANCELLED WITH WINDS FALLING BELOW
25 KNOTS.
THE SCA FOR COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF MANASQUAN INLET
OUT TO 20 NM AS WELL AS THE NEW SCAS ARE IN EFFECT THROUGH 6 PM
MONDAY, AS SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE PERIOD EVEN AS
WINDS DECREASE.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT...SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY LINGERING WITH SEAS
REMAINING ELEVATED AROUND 5-6 FEET.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE DUE TO
ELEVATED SEAS AROUND 5 FEET.
FRIDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY.
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
PAZ054-055-062-101-103-105.
NJ...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
NJZ001-007-009-010-015-019-021-022-027.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
DISCUSSION...AKL
AVIATION...GORSE
MARINE...AKL
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