498
FXUS61 KPHI 241502
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1102 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE AREA INTO THE START OF THE NEW
WEEK. LOW PRESSURE MAY AFFECT THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
LATE MORNING UPDATE...UPDATED TO INCREASE SKY COVER TODAY AND
ADD A FROST ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT NOW THAT THE PRIOR ONE HAS
EXPIRED. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.
EARLY MORNING DISCUSSION...A CLEAR AND FROSTY MORNING ONGOING.
NOT MUCH ELSE TO SAY OTHER THAN A FROST ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT
FOR MUCH OF SOUTHEASTERN PA OUTSIDE OF THE URBAN CORRIDOR AND
FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NJ WHERE THE GROWING SEASON IS STILL
ACTIVE. THE FROST ADVISORY GOES THROUGH 9 AM.
WE CLOSE OUT THE WEEK WITH A VERY SIMILAR DAY TO YESTERDAY. AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW PULLS AWAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN. SKIES
START OUT MOSTLY CLEAR BUT ANOTHER STRATOCUMULUS DECK DEVELOPS
BY MIDDAY AND FOR THE AFTERNOON WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES GET INTO THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S.
FOR TONIGHT, HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE IN WITH GRADIENT
WEAKENING EVEN FURTHER. SKIES CLEAR OUT NOT LONG AFTER SUNSET
AND WE SHOULD HAVE ANOTHER NIGHT OF FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S
WITH UPPER 30S/LOW 40S AROUND PHILADELPHIA AND AT THE IMMEDIATE
COAST. WILL LET THE CURRENT FROST HEADLINES RUN THEIR COURSE
BEFORE NEW ONES ARE RE-ISSUED. WOULD IMAGINE THAT ANOTHER FROST
ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR WHERE ONES ARE CURRENTLY. COULD
ALSO SEE HEADLINES POTENTIALLY EVEN EXPANDING INTO THE DELMARVA
PENINSULA, WHERE TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER
THAN THIS MORNING. WHERE THE GROWING SEASON HAS ENDED (MAINLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF I-78), TEMPERATURES COULD GET AT OR BELOW
FREEZING.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL DOMINATE THE
REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A CLOSED H5 LOW WILL REMAIN OVER
EASTERN CANADA. THE BASE OF AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THAT
LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL FLATTEN OUT ON SATURDAY, AND THEN A
NEW TROUGH WILL CARVE OUT OVER THE NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY. SEVERAL
SHORTWAVES WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION FROM TIME TO TIME.
OVERALL TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ON TAP THIS WEEKEND, THOUGH SKIES
WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY. SPOTTY SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE
WITH SOME OF THE STRONGER SHORTWAVES, ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY, BUT
NOT EXPECTING MEASURABLE RAINFALL FROM ANY SPRINKLES. THE
BIGGEST ISSUE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FROST IN AREAS
WHERE THE GROWING SEASON IS STILL UNDERWAY. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL
BECOME NEARLY CALM AT NIGHT, SKIES MAY BE JUST CLOUDY ENOUGH TO
KEEP OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS FROM DEVELOPING. AS
A RESULT, LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S FOR
MOST AREAS, EXCEPT FOR THE URBAN CORRIDOR FROM PHILADELPHIA TO
WILMINGTON AND DELMARVA WHERE LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW 40S AND
THE ALONG THE COASTS, WHERE LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 40S
DUE TO THE WARMER OCEAN WATERS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S
TO AROUND 60 ON SATURDAY, AND MAYBE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN
THAT ON SUNDAY. FROST ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED AT NIGHT IN
COUNTIES WHERE LOWS ARE IN THE MID 30S OR SO AND THE GROWING
SEASON IS STILL UNDERWAY.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
TRANQUIL CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON MONDAY AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S.
FROM THERE, A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS ON TAP FOR THE
AREA, THOUGH THERE IS A LACK OF AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS AS TO
HOW THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP. THE CLOSED LOW OVER EASTERN
CANADA WILL RETROGRADE BACK TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY,
AND A STRONGER H5 TROUGH WILL CARVE OUT OVER THE EASTERN THIRD
OF THE COUNTRY, WITH THE TROUGH EXTENDING DOWN INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO FORM
SOMEWHERE IN THIS AREA AND WILL AFFECT THE NORTHEAST AND MID-
ATLANTIC TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. IT IS UNCERTAIN AS TO
WHETHER OR NOT THIS STORM WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE AREA INTO
THURSDAY. FOLLOWING THE NBM YIELDS SLIGHT CHANCE-CHANCE POPS ON
TUESDAY, AND THEN CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. PERIODS OF
MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY EAST TO NORTHEAST
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM, BUT DETAILS ARE UNCERTAIN.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW NORMAL DURING THIS PERIOD.
AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
TODAY...VFR. WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS 8 TO 13 KT. A FEW GUSTS TO 20
KTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
TONIGHT...VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS 5 KT OR LESS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
SATURDAY...VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...VFR. NSW.
TUESDAY...VFR GENERALLY EXPECTED, BUT RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE
IN SHRA.
MARINE
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. WEST/NORTHWEST
WINDS 10-20 KT AND SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...SCA CONDITIONS BECOMING LIKELY.
WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 KT POSSIBLE WITH SEAS BUILDING UP TO 5-8
FEET.
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR PAZ060-101-
102-104-106.
NJ...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR NJZ012-013-
015>022-027.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MPS
NEAR TERM...HOEFLICH
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...MPS
AVIATION...HOEFLICH/MPS
MARINE...HOEFLICH/MPS
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