224
FXUS61 KPHI 151007
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
607 AM EDT WED APR 15 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE HEAT FORECAST AND
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORM FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.
KEY MESSAGES
1. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE THROUGH THIS
EVENING, MAINLY NORTH OF I-78. A MARGINAL (1/5) RISK FOR SEVERE
STORMS IS IN PLACE FOR THAT AREA. MAIN CONCERN IS DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS.
2. RECORD BREAKING WARMTH CONTINUES THIS WEEK WITH VERY WARM
AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUING THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. TODAY AND TOMORROW WILL SEE RECORDS FALL AND WILL BE
THE WARMEST DAYS OF THE STRETCH WITH UPPER 80S/LOW 90S EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MOVE THROUGH THIS EVENING, MAINLY NORTH OF I-78. A MARGINAL
(1/5) RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS IS IN PLACE FOR THAT AREA. MAIN
CONCERN IS DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
FOR TODAY, THERE IS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER
ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN PA AND NORTHERN NJ WHERE A MARGINAL
RISK REMAINS IN PLACE FOR SOME ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL. HOWEVER, IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THIS THREAT IS HIGHLY
CONDITIONAL DEPENDING ON HOW CONVECTION EVOLVES FROM UPSTREAM
AND WITH ANY REMAINING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. AN MCS IS CURRENTLY
MOVING THROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND SHOULD FIZZLE LATER THIS
MORNING NEAR THE APPALACHIAN REGION. SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY,
DIURNAL HEATING WILL LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO SOME REINVIGORATING OF
CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON TO OUR WEST AND PUSH TOWARD THE
AREA IN THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
THE SEVERE THREAT WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON HOW UPSTREAM
CONVECTION EVOLVES. MLCAPE VALUES IN THE NORTHERN THIRD OF OUR
REGION SHOULD BE AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG THOUGH WITH ONLY 20-30 KT
OF BULK SHEAR. THINKING THE TIMING MAY NOT LINE UP PERFECTLY
WITH FORCING COMING IN A BIT LATER CLOSER TO SUNSET AS
INSTABILITY IS WANING, WHICH WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR WITH
TODAY'S SEVERE THREAT. FORECAST GUIDANCE NOTORIOUSLY STRUGGLES
WITH THESE TYPES OF SCENARIOS, SO CONFIDENCE ON TODAY'S THREAT
IS LOW.
THINKING THE MAIN AREA TO WATCH OVER THE EARLY EVENING WILL BE
NEAR AND NORTH OF I-78. IN TERMS OF TIMING WITH THE
THUNDERSTORMS, IT DOES LOOK TO COME IN A BIT LATER, WHICH AS
MENTIONED ABOVE WILL LIMIT THE SEVERE THREAT SOME. LOOKING AT A
WINDOW FROM ABOUT 6 PM TO MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN LEHIGH
VALLEY, SOUTHERN POCONOS, AND NORTHERN NJ.
KEY MESSAGE 2...RECORD BREAKING WARMTH CONTINUES THIS WEEK WITH
VERY WARM AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUING THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. TODAY AND TOMORROW WILL LIKELY SEE RECORDS
FALL AND WILL BE THE WARMEST DAYS OF THE STRETCH WITH UPPER
80S/LOW 90S EXPECTED.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE WARM
FRONT WELL NORTH OF THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION, CONTINUED WARMTH IS
EXPECTED FOR TODAY. VERY WARM AIR ALOFT COUPLED WITH WARM AIR
AT SURFACE LEVELS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO BE AS MUCH AS 15 TO
30 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
HIGHS TODAY AND TOMORROW WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S.
TOMORROW'S HIGHS COULD BE A TOUCH COOLER WITH SOME CLOUD COVER
IN PLACE. HOWEVER, STILL EXPECTING SEVERAL HIGH TEMPERATURE AND
WARMEST LOW TEMPERATURE RECORDS TO FALL OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS.
SEE CLIMATE SECTION TO SEE THE DAILY RECORDS FOR TODAY AND
TOMORROW.
TODAY IS SET TO BE THE FIRST 90 DEGREE DAY OF THE YEAR FOR MOST
AND FIRST SINCE EARLY SEPTEMBER. AS IS TYPICAL IN SPRING
THOUGH, TEMPERATURES ALONG/NEAR THE COAST WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY
COOLER DUE TO THE COLDER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND DIURNAL
SEA BREEZE.
WHILE A WEAK SURFACE FRONT PASSES THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING,
TEMPERATURES WILL STAY WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S. TEMPERATURES
FINALLY APPEAR TO COOL BACK TOWARD SEASONABLE LEVELS EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
NOT ONLY WILL IT BE VERY WARM OVER THE COURSE OF THE WEEK, BUT IT
WILL ALSO REMAIN MAINLY DRY. THIS IS OF ELEVATED CONCERN FOR ONGOING
DROUGHT/ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA, WHICH WILL
LIKELY ONLY GET WORSE AFTER THIS WEEK. RAIN CHANCES ARE IN THE
FORECAST NORTH/WEST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR FOR THIS EVENING AND
THURSDAY NIGHT, BUT RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE MINIMAL. SHOWERS MOVE
THROUGH ON FRIDAY REGION-WIDE BUT QPF IS ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS.
MORE WIDESPREAD AND WETTING RAIN (0.10" OR GREATER) COULD COME
ON SUNDAY.
FLOW WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST, WHICH IS MORE
FAVORABLE IN TERMS OF MOISTURE. THIS WILL LIKELY HINDER THE
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AS MIN RHS SHOULD BE ABOVE 30%. WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AS WELL, SERVING AS ANOTHER LIMITING
FACTOR. SO, EVEN THOUGH IT WILL BE WARM AND DRY, FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS ARE MINIMAL.
AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
TODAY...PRIMARILY VFR. LATE DAY/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR AND NORTH OF I-78
WHICH COULD AFFECT KABE/KRDG (15-25% CHANCE). BULK OF THE
CONVECTION SHOULD STAY TO THE NORTH THOUGH. I-95 AND SOUTH
JERSEY TERMINALS SHOULD BE WELL SOUTH OF ANY
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5-10 KT IN THE
MORNING, INCREASING TO AROUND 10-15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON, WITH
GUSTS AROUND 20 KT. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
TONIGHT...VFR. SHOWERS NEAR KABE/KRDG UNTIL ABOUT 03Z-04Z WHICH
COULD RESULT IN SOME RESTRICTIONS. SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 KT.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
THURSDAY...VFR. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 TO 10 KT. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK..
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...PRIMARILY VFR. CANNOT RULE OUT
BRIEF PERIODS OF RESTRICTIONS WITH ANY SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH
(15-30% CHANCE).
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...PRIMARILY VFR. SOME RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE (30-50%) WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH.
MARINE
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY. WINDS OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST AROUND 10-20 KT WITH 2 TO 4 FOOT SEAS.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...NO MARINE HEADLINES
EXPECTED.
SUNDAY...SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE (30-50%) AS WINDS OUT OF THE
WEST/SOUTHWEST NEAR 25 KT AND SEAS NEARING 5 FEET.
CLIMATE
WARM TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL ARE EXPECTED FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEK. WEDNESDAY IS CURRENTLY PROJECTED TO BE THE WARMEST DAY,
THOUGH TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY COULD SEE SOME RECORDS BROKEN
DEPENDING ON THE SITE.
RECORD HIGHS ON TUESDAY APRIL 14 WERE TIED AT WILMINGTON AND
GEORGETOWN TODAY, WITH A RECORD HIGH SET IN ATLANTIC CITY. NO
RECORD WARMEST LOWS WERE SET ON TUESDAY.
BELOW ARE RECORD HIGHS AND RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR
APRIL 15TH THROUGH APRIL 16TH.
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
APRIL 15
SITE RECORD/YEAR
ALLENTOWN (ABE) 86/1941 & 1994
AC AIRPORT (ACY) 90/1967
AC MARINA (55N) 86/1941
GEORGETOWN (GED) 86/1960 & 2024
MOUNT POCONO (MPO) 82/1941
PHILADELPHIA (PHL) 88/1941
READING (RDG) 86/1941 & 1994
TRENTON (TTN) 87/1994
WILMINGTON (ILG) 86/1896
RECORD WARMEST LOW TEMPERATURES
APRIL 15
SITE RECORD/YEAR
ALLENTOWN (ABE) 59/2002
AC AIRPORT (ACY) 61/2002
AC MARINA (55N) 59/2006
GEORGETOWN (GED) 65/2002
MOUNT POCONO (MPO) 58/2002
PHILADELPHIA (PHL) 64/2002
READING (RDG) 64/1938
TRENTON (TTN) 63/2002
WILMINGTON (ILG) 62/2002
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
APRIL 16
SITE RECORD/YEAR
ALLENTOWN (ABE) 90/2012
AC AIRPORT (ACY) 89/2002
AC MARINA (55N) 88/2002
GEORGETOWN (GED) 89/2002
MOUNT POCONO (MPO) 85/2002
PHILADELPHIA (PHL) 90/2002
READING (RDG) 90/2012
TRENTON (TTN) 91/2012
WILMINGTON (ILG) 92/1896
RECORD WARMEST LOW TEMPERATURES
APRIL 16
SITE RECORD/YEAR
ALLENTOWN (ABE) 60/1941
AC AIRPORT (ACY) 62/2002
AC MARINA (55N) 64/2002
GEORGETOWN (GED) 65/2012
MOUNT POCONO (MPO) 56/2002
PHILADELPHIA (PHL) 62/2002
READING (RDG) 65/1941
TRENTON (TTN) 62/2002
WILMINGTON (ILG) 63/2002
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DESILVA/HOEFLICH
AVIATION...HOEFLICH
MARINE...HOEFLICH
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