535
FXUS61 KPHI 260749
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
349 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
FROST ADVISORY ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN NEW JERSEY
AND EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA.
KEY MESSAGES
1. CLOUDY SKIES TODAY, BUT DRYING OUT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION INTO TONIGHT. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
PERSIST. SOME AREAS OF FROST DEVELOPMENT FORECAST TONIGHT FOR
PORTIONS OF NEW JERSEY AND EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA.
2. ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR MUCH-NEEDED RAIN ARRIVE DURING THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...CLOUDY SKIES TODAY, BUT DRYING OUT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION INTO TONIGHT. BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST. SOME AREAS OF FROST DEVELOPMENT
FORECAST TONIGHT FOR PORTIONS OF NEW JERSEY AND EASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA.
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE THAT BROUGHT THE WEEKEND RAIN DEPARTS
OUT TO SEA. DRY AIR WILL BE SLOW TO FILTER IN THROUGH THE DAY,
SO LOW STRATUS WILL PERSIST MUCH OF THE DAYTIME HOURS. THE
STRATUS SHOULD BEGIN TO SCATTER OUT AND DISSIPATE FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING HOURS. SO WHILE
IT'LL BE A CLOUDY DAY OVERALL, MOST AREAS OUTSIDE OF FAR
SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND DELMARVA SHOULD SEE AT LEAST A COUPLE
HOURS OF SUN BEFORE SUNSET THIS EVENING.
A NORTHEAST BREEZE WILL PERSIST TODAY AS WELL, GENERALLY AROUND
10-15 MPH, STRONGEST NEAR THE COAST WHERE SOME GUSTS NEAR 25-30
MPH WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE. THE CLOUDY SKIES WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM WARMING UP TOO MUCH, SO TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S. NORTHERN NJ
AND EASTERN PA WILL MAKE A RUN AT 60 DEGREES THOUGH, AS SKIES
CLEARING EARLIER IN THE AFTERNOON THERE SHOULD YIELD MORE
SUBSTANTIAL WARMING BEFORE THE SUNLIGHT WANES. HIGHS CLOSER TO
50 DEGREES ALONG THE COAST, WHERE SOME DRIZZLE MAY LINGER DURING
THE MORNING.
AS SKIES QUICKLY CLEAR INTO THE NIGHT, RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL
TAKE HOLD. WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT, FAVORING A NORTHERLY
DIRECTION AROUND 5 MPH OR LESS. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S
TO LOW 40S FOR MOST AREAS. SHELTERED VALLEYS OF NORTHWESTERN
NEW JERSEY AND EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA SHOULD BE ON THE COOLER SIDE
OF THIS RANGE, WITH THE SURFACE HIGH IN THE VICINITY. THUS,
SOME AREAS OF FROST ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP. A FROST ADVISORY WAS
ISSUED TO HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT. FARTHER SOUTH INTO INTERIOR
SOUTHERN NJ AND THE OUTER PHILLY SUBURBS IN PA, LOWS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 30S COULD PRODUCE SOME PATCHY FROST, BUT THINKING
COVERAGE AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE TOO MARGINAL TO
WARRANT AN ADVISORY AT THE MOMENT. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS
THOUGH.
KEY MESSAGE 2...ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR MUCH-NEEDED RAIN ARRIVE
DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
A BRIEF PERIOD OF HIGH PRESSURE ON MONDAY, AND SOME PATCHY
FROST MAY FORM IN THE POCONOS OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT WITH
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND WEAK WINDS. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY THEN
APPROACHES THE REGION LATE TUESDAY, BRINGING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT
RAIN. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LARGELY WASH OUT ACROSS THE
REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER STRONGER LOW ARRIVES LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY THAT COULD BRING MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE REGION.
AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
THROUGH 12Z...MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY IFR THROUGH
09Z. PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN CONTINUING THROUGH 08Z, WITH MVFR
VISIBILITY GENERALLY PREVAILING MUCH OF THE TIME IN THE RAIN.
SOME AREAS OF DRIZZLE MAY OCCUR AFTER THE RAIN ENDS AS WELL,
HOWEVER DRY AIR FILTERING IN SHOULD KEEP VISIBILITY VFR AFTER
RAIN ENDS. NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT AROUND 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS NEAR
20-25 KTS POSSIBLE AT TIMES. HIGH CONFIDENCE ON PREVAILING IFR
OVERNIGHT, LOWER CONFIDENCE ON EXACT TIMING DETAILS.
REST OF TODAY...IFR CEILINGS EARLY SHOULD SLOWLY IMPROVE TO
MVFR AROUND 15Z, THEN TO VFR BY AROUND 21Z. NORTHEAST WINDS
10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS EARLY, DIMINISHING TO 10 KTS
OR LESS LATE. MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON THE TIMING OF IMPROVEMENTS
IN THE TAFS.
TONIGHT...VFR. WINDS 5 KTS OR LESS, FAVORING A NORTHERLY
DIRECTION. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY...VFR CEILINGS OVERALL. SOME AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS
POSSIBLE.
WEDNESDAY...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ALONG WITH SHOWERS LIKELY.
THURSDAY...VFR OVERALL.
MARINE
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS OUT
TO 20 NM AS WELL AS THE DELAWARE BAY THROUGH 6 AM DUE TO
INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS. AFTER 6 AM TODAY, COASTAL WATERS FROM
MANASQUAN INLET NJ SOUTH TO FENWICK ISLAND DE, AND OUT TO 60 NM
WILL HAVE A GALE WARNING IN EFFECT AS WINDS INCREASE DURING THE
DAYTIME HOURS TODAY, ENDING AT 8 PM THIS EVENING. THE SCA FOR
THE DELAWARE BAY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH 8 PM AS WELL. THE
SCA FOR COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF MANASQUAN INLET OUT TO 20 NM
HAS BEEN EXTENDED TO 6 AM MONDAY, AS SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED
OVERNIGHT EVEN AS WINDS DECREASE. ANOTHER, SCA WILL BE NEEDED
FOR AREAS WITHIN THE GALE WARNING AS SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED IN
THAT AREA AS WELL.
IN ADDITION TO SCA AND GALE CONDITIONS, VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
ARE ALSO EXPECTED FOR ALL MARINE AREAS IN RAIN AND FOG THROUGH
THIS MORNING.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...SCA CONDITIONS WILL LINGER
THROUGH MONDAY WITH NE WINDS GUSTING NEAR 25 KTS AND SEAS AT 5-7
FEET. WINDS DIMINISH BELOW SCA CRITERIA MONDAY NIGHT, BUT SEAS
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE DUE TO
ELEVATED SEAS AROUND 5 FEET.
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
PAZ054-055-062-105.
NJ...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
NJZ001-007-009.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-
431.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ450.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
ANZ451>455.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ451>455-
481>483-485.
DISCUSSION...MJL/STAARMANN
AVIATION...MJL/STAARMANN
MARINE...MJL/STAARMANN
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