983
FXUS61 KPHI 212328
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
728 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 00Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
1. A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AND COLD OCEAN WATER TEMPERATURES
WILL CREATE DANGEROUS CONDITIONS TOMORROW AT THE NEW JERSEY AND
DELAWARE COASTS.
2. TIMES OF MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL THROUGH MOST OF THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND AND SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES CONTINUING, THEN
SOME WARMING TO END THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AND COLD OCEAN WATER
TEMPERATURES WILL CREATE DANGEROUS CONDITIONS TOMORROW AT THE
NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE COASTS.
FOR TOMORROW, AN INCREASING EAST-NORTHEAST WIND WILL RANGE FROM
15 TO 20 MPH WITH 25 TO 30 MPH GUSTS. SEAS WILL BE INCREASING
TO 4-6 FEET THROUGH THE DAY. THERE WILL BE A SOUTHEAST SWELL
WITH A PERIOD OF 10 TO 13 SECONDS AND BREAKING WAVES OF 2 TO 4
FEET. AS A RESULT, THERE IS A HIGH RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ON FRIDAY AND A RIP CURRENT RISK
STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF THE NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE
COASTS.
OCEAN TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO REMAIN MAINLY IN THE 50S TO LOW
60S. THESE COLD WATER TEMPERATURES CAN QUICKLY CAUSE
HYPOTHERMIA AND PHYSICAL INCAPACITATION TO ANYONE SUDDENLY
IMMERSED IN THE WATER.
KEY MESSAGE 2...TIMES OF MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL THROUGH MOST OF
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES
CONTINUING, THEN SOME WARMING TO END THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
A FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE
TRYING TO LIFT BACK NORTHWARD OVER THE WEEKEND. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT WILL GUIDE RIPPLES OF ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED LIFT ACROSS OUR
AREA AND THIS WILL RESULT IN A ZONE OF SHOWERS/RAIN EARLY THIS
EVENING THAT WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE EAST/SOUTHWARD WHILE ALSO
GENERALLY WEAKENING. BY THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD THERE WILL LIKELY
STILL BE SOME LIGHT RAIN ONGOING OVER PORTIONS OF DELMARVA AND
SOUTHERN NJ BUT FROM AROUND PHILLY NORTHWARD IT SHOULD BE MAINLY
DRY.
SOME MID LEVEL RIDGING SLIDES OVER OUR AREA DURING FRIDAY AND THIS
WILL RESULT IN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO OUR NORTH ACROSS
NEW ENGLAND. THIS SURFACE HIGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THOUGH SATURDAY
AND WEDGE ITS WAY DOWN INTO THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC. AS THIS
OCCURS, ADDITIONAL ENERGY TRACKING UP THE OHIO VALLEY WILL SUPPORT
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE. AS THIS LOW NEARS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
LATER SATURDAY, LOW-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL INCREASE ABOVE A
MARINE LAYER ACROSS OUR REGION. THIS MARINE LAYER WILL BE ENHANCED
BY THE COOL NORTHEAST TO EAST LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND CREATE/MAINTAIN
COOL AIR DAMMING. THIS IS A VERY FAVORABLE SETUP FOR AN OVERRUNNING
EVENT. THE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SHOWERS FILL IN BY
LATER FRIDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES AND THEN SPREAD NORTHWARD
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, WITH A MORE STEADY RAIN EVOLVING
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF SUNDAY. WHILE THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE UP TO ABOUT 1.5 INCHES, THIS WILL
BE WITHIN A MORE STABLE LOW TO MID LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. SOME HEAVIER
EMBEDDED RAIN IS POSSIBLE HOWEVER THE RISK OF THUNDER LOOKS VERY
LOW. THIS WILL ALSO RESULT IN A RATHER CHILLY SATURDAY WITH A
NOTICEABLE ONSHORE BREEZE. THE SYSTEM THEM DEPARTS ON SUNDAY WITH
RAIN/SHOWERS ENDING OVERALL, AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM SOME
HOWEVER STILL BE BELOW AVERAGE.
THE PATTERN LOOKS TO REMAIN ACTIVE EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH SOME
SHOWERS AROUND ON MEMORIAL DAY. IT DOES LOOK WARMER FOR MEMORIAL
DAY, BUT TO WHAT EXTENT WILL DEPEND ON CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER
CHANCES. WHILE NOT GREAT TIMING FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND, OUR REGION
NEEDS MORE RAIN AS A LONG-TERM DROUGHT CONTINUES. RAINFALL TOTALS
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT ARE MOSTLY IN THE 0.10-0.50 INCH RANGE, AND
THEN 1-2 INCHES SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
TONIGHT...VFR TO TIMES OF MVFR CEILINGS MAINLY DURING THIS
EVENING FOR AREA SOUTH OF RDG AND ABE. EAST- NORTHEAST WINDS 5-8
KNOTS, BECOMING LOCALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE. LOW CONFIDENCE.
FRIDAY...CEILINGS VARYING BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR. SOME SHOWERS
START TO ARRIVE FROM THE SOUTH LATER IN THE DAY. EAST-NORTHEAST
WINDS 10-15 KNOTS, WITH SOME GUSTS 15-25 KNOTS. LOW CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITH RAIN.
SUNDAY...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITH SOME RAIN ENDING, HOWEVER
CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN IMPROVE SOME.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MOSTLY VFR. SOME SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE.
MARINE
A NORTHEAST FLOW WILL INCREASE INTO TONIGHT WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS,
THEN DIMINISH SOME TONIGHT BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN FRIDAY MORNING.
SEAS WILL BUILD THROUGH LATE FRIDAY. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS
BEEN DELAYED UNTIL EARLY THIS EVENING FOR THE OCEAN ZONES (EXCEPT NO
ADVISORY FOR THE WATERS OFF MONMOUTH COUNTY AND THE UPPER DELAWARE
BAY THROUGH TONIGHT). THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES FRIDAY,
WITH THE UPPER DELAWARE BAY THEN INCLUDED.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY... SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
PROBABLE.
TUESDAY...WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE MUCH LIGHTER, HOWEVER SEAS MAY
STILL BE AROUND 5 FEET FOR A TIME.
RIP CURRENTS...
FOR FRIDAY, EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS WILL RANGE FROM 15 TO 20 MPH
WITH 25 TO 30 MPH GUSTS. THERE WILL BE A SOUTHEAST SWELL WITH A
PERIOD OF 10 TO 13 SECONDS AND BREAKING WAVES OF 2 TO 4 FEET.
AS A RESULT, THERE IS A HIGH RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ON FRIDAY AND A RIP CURRENT RISK
STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF THE NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE
COASTS.
ON SATURDAY, WINDS ARE MORE OUT OF THE EAST AND WILL RANGE FROM
20 TO 25 MPH WITH 30 TO 35 MPH GUSTS. SEAS WILL REACH 6-8 FEET
WITH A PERIOD OF 10 TO 13 SECONDS AND BREAKING WAVES OF 2 TO 4
FEET. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A HIGH RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS.
OCEAN TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO REMAIN MAINLY IN THE 50S TO LOW
60S. THESE COLD WATER TEMPERATURES CAN QUICKLY CAUSE
HYPOTHERMIA AND PHYSICAL INCAPACITATION TO ANYONE SUDDENLY
IMMERSED IN THE WATER.
FOR SPECIFIC BEACH FORECASTS, VISIT WEATHER.GOV/BEACH/PHI
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING FOR NJZ014-024>026.
DE...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING FOR DEZ004.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM FRIDAY TO 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
ANZ430.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ431-
451>455.
DISCUSSION...FITZSIMMONS/GORSE/GUZZO
AVIATION...FITZSIMMONS/GORSE
MARINE...GORSE/GUZZO/MJL
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