959
FXUS61 KPHI 120904
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
504 AM EDT SUN APR 12 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ATLANTIC OCEAN
COASTAL WATERS ON MONDAY.
INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK
AND A LEGITIMATE CHANCE FOR THE FIRST 90 DEGREE OF 2026 FOR
PHILADELPHIA. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES COULD ALSO CONTINUE INTO
NEXT WEEKEND, WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S FOR MOST.
KEY MESSAGES
1. A MAINLY DRY WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES TODAY, CONTINUING THE
ELEVATED RISK FOR FIRE SPREAD.
2. FROST POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA
TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING.
3. A SIGNIFICANT WARM UP IS EXPECTED FOR THE EARLY AND
MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES ANTICIPATED TO REACH 90F
FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS SEASON ALONG PORTIONS OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR
ON WEDNESDAY AND POTENTIALLY THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...A MAINLY DRY WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES TODAY, CONTINUING
THE ELEVATED RISK FOR FIRE SPREAD.
CONTINUED DRY WEATHER TODAY WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER DAY WITH AN
ELEVATED RISK FOR FIRE SPREAD. CONDITIONS WILL BE SLIGHTLY LESS
FAVORABLE TODAY (COMPARED TO SATURDAY) FOR FIRE SPREAD WITH A
LITTLE MORE MOISTURE MOVING BACK INTO THE REGION WITH EAST-
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS. MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL STILL FALL AROUND
30-40% THOUGH WITH WINDS GUSTING UP TO AROUND 20 MPH.
KEY MESSAGE 2...FROST POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA
TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVERHEAD EARLY THIS MORNING, CALM
WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL GIVE WAY TO THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING. EARLY MORNING LOWS ARE FORECAST TO FALL
INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S FOR AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF THE I-95
CORRIDOR. DESPITE A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE, DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS
WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FROST. A
FROST ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR BERKS, WESTERN CHESTER, AND
WESTERN MONTGOMERY COUNTIES THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING WHERE
THE GROWING SEASON HAS BEGUN. FOR THE LEHIGH VALLEY, POCONOS,
AND NORTHERN NEW JERSEY, PATCHY FROST IS POSSIBLE, BUT THE
GROWING SEASON THERE HAS NOT BEGUN YET.
KEY MESSAGE 3...A SIGNIFICANT WARM UP IS EXPECTED FOR THE EARLY AND
MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES ANTICIPATED TO REACH 90F
FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS SEASON ALONG PORTIONS OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR
ON WEDNESDAY AND POTENTIALLY THURSDAY.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT OFFSHORE MONDAY ALLOWING
FOR SEASONABLE WARM AIR TO PUSH NORTH ON SOUTHERLY FLOW. THIS SURGE
OF WARM AIR BOTH AT THE LOW LEVELS AND ALOFT WILL PUSH SURFACE TEMPS
INTO THE THE LOW 80S MONDAY, THE MID 80S TUESDAY AND INTO THE UPPER
80S TO LOW 90S FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES TOUCHING 90F
IN PHILADELPHIA WOULD MARK THE FIRST 90 DEGREE DAY OF THE YEAR AND
THE FIRST SINCE SEPTEMBER OF LAST YEAR. AS IS TYPICAL IN SPRING
THOUGH, TEMPERATURES ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST LIKELY WILL BE 15-25
DEGREES COOLER DUE TO THE COLDER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. WHILE A
COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH ON THURSDAY NIGHT, TEMPERATURES LIKELY STAY
ABOVE NORMAL AND REMAIN IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOW TO MID 80S.
IN ADDITION TO THE STRONG WAA, WINDS ON MONDAY COULD END UP BEING
FAIRLY GUSTY. A LOW LEVEL JET WILL BRING 35-45 KTS CLOSE TO THE
SURFACE HOWEVER WITH THE INVERSION IN PLACE IT WILL TAKE MOST OF THE
MORNING TO ERODE IT. ONCE THE INVERSION ERODES HOWEVER,SOUTHERLY
GUSTS OF 20-30 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON.
A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW-
END CHANCE (15-30%) FOR SHOWERS OR EVEN AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, PRIMARILY IN THE EVENING HOURS AND
PRIMARILY FOR AREAS NORTHWEST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. THE BULK OF THE
PERIOD WILL BE HIGH AND DRY HOWEVER, AND NO AREA HAS HIGHER THAN A
40% CHANCE OF RAIN ANY GIVEN DAY. THIS IS NOT GOOD NEWS FOR THE
ONGOING DROUGHT AND THINGS ARE EXPECTED TO GET WORSE.
AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
EARLY THIS MORNING...VFR. WINDS AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS, FAVORING
A NORTHERLY DIRECTION. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
TODAY...VFR. WINDS EAST AROUND 5-10 KTS IN THE MORNING SHIFT TO
THE S-SE AND GUST TO 15-20 KTS IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGH
CONFIDENCE.
TONIGHT...VFR. SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 5-10 KTS WITH A FEW GUSTS
AROUND 15 KTS. LLWS DEVELOPING AFTER 04Z WITH WINDS AROUND 40-45
KTS DEVELOPING AT 2 KFT. MODERATE-HIGH CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...PRIMARILY VFR. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AT KRDG/KABE (25-35% AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS (15-20%) IN THE AFTERNOON, THOUGH NOT
EXPECTING ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT. SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 20-25 KT
ANTICIPATED.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PRIMARILY VFR. CHANCE OF SHOWERS
(25-40%) IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AT THE I-95 AND LEHIGH VALLEY
TERMINALS COULD RESULT IN BRIEF RESTRICTIONS.
THURSDAY...VFR. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER.
MARINE
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY. WINDS OUT OF THE NE
AROUND 10 KTS SHIFT SE DURING THE DAY WITH GUSTS AROUND 15-20
KTS. SEAS 2-4 FEET.
SEAS INCREASE TO AROUND 5 FEET LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY
MORNING WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OF 20-25
KNOTS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ATLANTIC
OCEAN COASTAL WATERS AS A RESULT. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED
FOR THE DELAWARE BAY.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT... A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN PLACE
FOR ALL OCEAN ZONES AS SEAS OF 5 TO 6 FEET ARE EXPECTED. SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS ON DELAWARE BAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15-20 KT WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25 KT.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES EXPECTED.
CLIMATE
WARM TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEK. WEDNESDAY IS CURRENTLY PROJECTED TO BE THE
WARMEST DAY, THOUGH TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY COULD SEE SOME
RECORDS BROKEN DEPENDING ON THE SITE. BELOW ARE RECORD HIGHS AND
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR APRIL 14TH THROUGH APRIL
16TH.
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
APRIL 14
SITE RECORD/YEAR
ALLENTOWN (ABE) 88/2023
AC AIRPORT (ACY) 86/1945
AC MARINA (55N) 90/1941
GEORGETOWN (GED) 87/1977
MOUNT POCONO (MPO) 84/2023
PHILADELPHIA (PHL) 91/1941
READING (RDG) 90/1941
TRENTON (TTN) 89/1941
WILMINGTON (ILG) 87/1941
RECORD WARMEST LOW TEMPERATURES
APRIL 14
SITE RECORD/YEAR
ALLENTOWN (ABE) 61/2014
AC AIRPORT (ACY) 63/2023
AC MARINA (55N) 60/2023
GEORGETOWN (GED) 65/2019
MOUNT POCONO (MPO) 56/2014
PHILADELPHIA (PHL) 62/2014
READING (RDG) 64/2014
TRENTON (TTN) 62/2014
WILMINGTON (ILG) 60/2014
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
APRIL 15
SITE RECORD/YEAR
ALLENTOWN (ABE) 86/1941 & 1994
AC AIRPORT (ACY) 90/1967
AC MARINA (55N) 86/1941
GEORGETOWN (GED) 86/1960 & 2024
MOUNT POCONO (MPO) 82/1941
PHILADELPHIA (PHL) 88/1941
READING (RDG) 86/1941 & 1994
TRENTON (TTN) 87/1994
WILMINGTON (ILG) 86/1896
RECORD WARMEST LOW TEMPERATURES
APRIL 15
SITE RECORD/YEAR
ALLENTOWN (ABE) 59/2002
AC AIRPORT (ACY) 61/2002
AC MARINA (55N) 59/2006
GEORGETOWN (GED) 65/2002
MOUNT POCONO (MPO) 58/2002
PHILADELPHIA (PHL) 64/2002
READING (RDG) 64/1938
TRENTON (TTN) 63/2002
WILMINGTON (ILG) 62/2002
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
APRIL 16
SITE RECORD/YEAR
ALLENTOWN (ABE) 90/2012
AC AIRPORT (ACY) 89/2002
AC MARINA (55N) 88/2002
GEORGETOWN (GED) 89/2002
MOUNT POCONO (MPO) 85/2002
PHILADELPHIA (PHL) 90/2002
READING (RDG) 90/2012
TRENTON (TTN) 91/2012
WILMINGTON (ILG) 92/1896
RECORD WARMEST LOW TEMPERATURES
APRIL 16
SITE RECORD/YEAR
ALLENTOWN (ABE) 60/1941
AC AIRPORT (ACY) 62/2002
AC MARINA (55N) 64/2002
GEORGETOWN (GED) 65/2012
MOUNT POCONO (MPO) 56/2002
PHILADELPHIA (PHL) 62/2002
READING (RDG) 65/1941
TRENTON (TTN) 62/2002
WILMINGTON (ILG) 63/2002
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ060-101-103.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM MONDAY TO 1 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
ANZ450.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM MONDAY TO 1 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
ANZ451>454.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ455.
DISCUSSION...AKL/HOEFLICH
AVIATION...AKL/HOEFLICH
MARINE...AKL/HOEFLICH
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