728
FXUS61 KPHI 030044
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
844 PM EDT TUE JUN 2 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE AVIATION AND RIP CURRENT SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
1. HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS THE AREA DRY THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.
2. LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, A TROUGH WILL BRING
COOLER WEATHER AND A CHANCE FOR RAIN.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1... HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS THE AREA DRY THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK.
FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST. ON WEDNESDAY, THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT WAS
ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY WILL HAVE AMPLIFIED AND SUNK SOUTHWARD.
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO CLOSE OFF INTO AN UPPER
LOW WITH THE MOST RECENT GUIDANCE SHOWING THAT OCCURRING NEAR
THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. AFTER IT DEEPEN A BIT, IT WILL THEN
SLOWLY MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. AT THE SURFACE, A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL LIKELY FORM IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE CLOSED UPPER
LOW. WE WILL BE CLOSE TO THIS SYSTEM, BUT IN GENERAL HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS DELMARVA, PA AND NJ. AS A RESULT,
THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. THE PLEASANT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY SATURDAY
TOO, BUT THEN SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS OR A TSTM ARE POSSIBLE FOR
THE AFTERNOON HOURS FOR THE NW COUNTIES.
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE THIS WEEK WITH
TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO THE LOW 90S FOR BOTH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. SHORE AREAS AND THE SOUTHERN POCONOS MAY SEE HIGHS IN
THE MID/UPPER 80S.
KEY MESSAGE 2... LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, A
TROUGH WILL BRING COOLER WEATHER AND A CHANCE FOR RAIN.
THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM DURING THE LATER
HALF OF THE WEEK SHOULD WEAKEN DURING THE LATER HALF OF THE
WEEKEND AS A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST. AT THE SURFACE, A LOW SHOULD DEVELOP IN RESPONSE.
THERE ARE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE AS TO
IF THIS WILL BE A CLOSED SURFACE LOW OR A TROUGH, BUT
REGARDLESS, THE NET EFFECT APPEARS TO BE A COOLING TREND,
ESPECIALLY GOING INTO MONDAY.
AS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE WIDE VARIETY OF SURFACE PATTERN
SOLUTIONS, THERE IS ALSO CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AS TO IF THIS
WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD RAIN FOR THE AREA. WHILE IT DOESN'T
LOOK LIKE AN IDEAL PATTERN FOR WIDESPREAD, SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION (MOISTURE ADVECTION ISN'T LIKELY TO BE MAXIMIZED),
GIVEN THE SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT, RAIN CHANCES OF 30 TO 60 PERCENT
AT THIS POINT SEEM APPROPRIATE FOR THE PATTERN.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
TONIGHT...VFR EXPECTED. A NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND AT 5
KNOTS OR LESS WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT TIMES. HIGH
CONFIDENCE.
WEDNESDAY...VFR WITH A MAINLY CLEAR SKY. A NORTH TO NORTH-
NORTHEAST WIND AROUND 5 KNOTS. WINDS TURN MORE EAST TO SOUTHEAST
AT KMIV/KACY DURING THE AFTERNOON DUE TO A SEA BREEZE. HIGH
CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY THRU SATURDAY MORNING...VFR EXPECTED.
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY VFR. A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM AT KRDG/KABE.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT AND REMAIN FOR THE MIDWEEK
PERIOD. WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN ONSHORE WITH GUSTS 15 TO 20 KTS
MUCH OF THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. FAIR WEATHER.
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY... FAIR WEATHER AND SUB-SCA CONDITIONS
CONTINUE.
OUTLOOK...
LOOKS TO BE A GREAT PERIOD ON THE WATERS WITH HIGH PRESSURE
PREVAILING ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW
SCA LEVELS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE EARLY PART OF
THE WEEKEND. FAIR WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY THEN SLOW INCREASING
CHANCES FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR A TSTM SATURDAY EVENING THOUGHT
SUNDAY.
RIP CURRENTS...
ON WEDNESDAY, NORTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH IN THE MORNING WILL TURN
TO THE EAST, THEN SOUTHEAST LATE IN THE DAY BEHIND SEA BREEZES.
BREAKING WAVES WILL BE 2 TO 3 FEET. THERE WILL BE A LESSENING
EASTERLY SWELL WITH A 9 TO 10 SECOND PERIOD. AS A RESULT, THERE
IS A LOW RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF DANGEROUS AND LIFE
THREATENING RIP CURRENTS FOR THE JERSEY SHORE FOR MONMOUTH
COUNTY, OCEAN COUNTY, AND ATLANTIC COUNTY, AND A MODERATE RISK
FOR THE JERSEY SHORE FOR CAPE MAY COUNTY AND DELAWARE BEACHES.
ON THURSDAY, WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHERLY AND SEAS/SWELLS WILL
CONTINUE TO LESSEN. THUS, THERE IS A LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
FOR THE NEW JERSEY SHORE AND DELAWARE BEACHES.
FOR SPECIFIC BEACH FORECASTS, VISIT WEATHER.GOV/BEACH/PHI
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...GUZZO/JOHNSON/MPS/OHARA
AVIATION...GUZZO/OHARA
MARINE...OHARA/STAARMANN
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page