181
FXUS61 KPHI 042248
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
548 PM EST WED FEB 4 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
TIMING OF WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW ON FRIDAY EVENING AND POTENTIAL
SNOW SQUALLS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT HAS BEEN TWEAKED. GALE WATCH HAS
BEEN RAISED FOR ALL MARINE WATERS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING, WITH POTENTIAL FOR STORM CONDITIONS.
KEY MESSAGES
1. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL BRING A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW
FRIDAY EVENING FOLLOWED BY POTENTIAL SNOW SQUALLS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.
2. STRONG WIND GUSTS BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT MAY EXCEED 50 MPH
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY, WITH AIR TEMPERATURES
PLUNGING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS OR BELOW ZERO AND WIND CHILLS
DIVING POSSIBLY TO -10 TO -20 DEGREES BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL BRING A PERIOD OF LIGHT
SNOW FRIDAY EVENING FOLLOWED BY POTENTIAL SNOW SQUALLS LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT.
RELATIVELY TRANQUIL, IF COLD, CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING, WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AND A MIX OF CLOUDS
AND CLEAR SKIES AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES. THIS ALL
CHANGES FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM PASSES
BY TO THE NORTH. AT FIRST, THE SYSTEM WILL BE *RELATIVELY*
BENIGN, WITH CLOUDS INCREASING, FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD RELATIVELY
LIGHT WARM ADVECTION-INDUCED SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT JUST HOW MUCH FALLS, BUT OVERALL
GUIDANCE IS PRETTY LIGHT HERE... GENERALLY A COATING TO UPWARDS
OF AN INCH OR SO IN MOST OF THE REGION, WITH BEST CHANCES OF AN
INCH OR MORE BEING ACROSS OUR NORTHERN TIER, PARTICULARLY IN
THE POCONOS. WINDS SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT DURING THIS SNOWFALL,
BUT WITH COLD TEMPERATURES PRECEDING IT, ANY UNTREATED ROADS
COULD QUICKLY GET SLIPPERY.
THINGS GET MUCH MORE INTERESTING LATE AT NIGHT, AS AN ARCTIC
COLD FRONT BARRELS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. RIGHT NOW,
GUIDANCE HAS HONED IN ON A TIMING LATE FRIDAY NIGHT, AFTER
MIDNIGHT BUT BEFORE DAWN. WITH THE FRONT ITSELF, SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS, PERHAPS EVEN SOME HEAVIER SNOW SQUALLS, ARE POSSIBLE.
THIS MIGHT NOT BE ESPECIALLY DISSIMILAR FROM THE EVENT ON NEW
YEARS DAY, SINCE ITS A LATE NIGHT BEFORE A NON-WEEKDAY, BUT
IMPACTS MAY YET BE FELT. ROADS AFTER THAT EVENT WERE QUITE ICY
DURING THE MORNING, AND THIS MAY OCCUR YET AGAIN. AS WITH THE
NEW YEARS DAY EVENT, ACTUAL SNOWFALL WITH THE SQUALLS WILL
LIKELY BE VERY LIGHT, LESS THAN AN INCH, BUT STILL POTENTIAL FOR
SOME RAPID DROPS IN VISIBILITY AND ROADS QUICKLY BECOMING ICY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...STRONG WIND GUSTS BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT MAY
EXCEED 50 MPH ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY, WITH AIR
TEMPERATURES PLUNGING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS OR BELOW ZERO AND
WIND CHILLS DIVING POSSIBLY TO -10 TO -20 DEGREES BY LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT.
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE REGION
SLOWLY BUT SURELY ON SATURDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE ARCTIC FRONT.
AS LOW PRESSURE RAPIDLY STRENGTHENS OFF THE COAST WHILE THE
STRONG HIGH SLOWLY BUILDS IN, WINDS WILL BE QUITE STRONG AND
GUSTY, WITH GUSTS POTENTIALLY REACHING 50 MPH OR GREATER. WIND
ADVISORIES MAY BE REQUIRED AT MINIMUM.
THIS WIND WILL ALSO BE TRANSPORTING ANOTHER ROUND OF BITTER
ARCTIC AIR INTO THE REGION, WITH AIR TEMPERATURES PLUNGING INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS REGION WIDE AND BELOW ZERO IN THE COLDER
NORTHWESTERN ZONES. COMBINED WITH THE STRONG WINDS, WE'LL LIKELY
SEE WIND CHILLS BELOW ZERO REGION WIDE, POSSIBLY REACHING -10 IN
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND -20 IN THE POCONOS. WIDESPREAD COLD
WEATHER ADVISORIES LOOK LIKELY, WITH SOME RISK OF EXTREME COLD
WEATHER WARNING CRITERIA.
CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY WANE LATER SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS THE HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD, WINDS RELAX AND THE AIR MASS
STARTS TO MODERATE.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
TONIGHT... VFR WITH JUST SOME PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDINESS MOVING
THROUGH. NORTH TO NW WINDS GENERALLY AROUND 5 KNOTS OR LESS.
HIGH CONFIDENCE.
THURSDAY... VFR EXPECTED. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE DAY.
WINDS WILL BE MAINLY NORTH TO NORTHWEST AROUND 10 KNOTS AFTER
14Z/15Z. HIGH CONFID.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR.
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...SUB-VFR LIKELY BY LATE FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY EVENING, POSSIBLY BRIEFLY IFR, WITH A PERIOD OF LIGHT
SNOW REDUCING CIGS AND VSBY. ARCTIC FRONT LATE FRIDAY NIGHT MAY
BRING SNOW SQUALLS.
SATURDAY...RETURNING TO VFR WITH THE SNOW SQUALL THREAT ENDING
EARLY, BUT WITH STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING POSSIBLY AS HIGH
AS 40 KTS DURING THE DAY AND POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT.
SUNDAY...VFR WITH WINDS DIMINISHING.
MONDAY...VFR.
MARINE
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. WINDS WILL BE NORTH THRU
THE PERIOD 5 TO 10 KNOTS TONIGHT AND 10 TO 15 KNOTS THURSDAY. FAIR
WEATHER EXPECTED.
REGARDING THE RIVER ICE THREAT...ICE HAS FORMED ACROSS AREA BAY
WATERS AND INLAND ESTUARIES. THIS INCLUDES, BUT IS NOT LIMITED
TO THE DELAWARE ESTUARY. ON RIVERS, THE ICE HAS GROWN IN
THICKNESS ENOUGH TO START CAUSING RESTRICTIONS IN FLOW. AN
EXAMPLE OF THIS CAN BE SEEN AT THE TRENTON RIVER GAUGE. PER
SATELLITE IMAGERY, THE DELAWARE RIVER IS PRETTY MUCH ICE COVERED
FROM JUST SOUTH OF TRENTON UPSTREAM TO ABOUT WASHINGTON
CROSSING.
THE MOST COMMON WAYS RIVER ICE CAN BREAK UP IS EITHER THROUGH A
THERMAL OR MECHANICAL MEANS. WE WOULD LIKE TO SEE TEMPERATURES
RISE INTO THE 40S FOR A FEW DAYS, BUT THAT'S NOT EXPECTED THIS
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. RAINFALL, PRODUCING RIVER RISES, CAN ALSO
BREAK UP ICE. BUT AGAIN, THAT'S NOT IN THE FORECAST EITHER THIS
COMING WEEK.
AS A RESULT, WE EXPECT THE ICE WE'RE SEEING TO EXPAND BEFORE IT
CONTRACTS. EVEN THOUGH THERE MAY BE A PAUSE IN THE GROWTH
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS THIS COMING WEEK, TEMPERATURES AT
NIGHT WILL SUPPORT EXPANSION.
OUTLOOK...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING, THOUGH
LIGHT SNOW FRIDAY EVENING MAY REDUCE VISIBILITY.
STRONG WINDS LIKELY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING AS
ARCTIC FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT, POSSIBLY
ACCOMPANIED BY SNOW SQUALLS. WINDS LOOK LIKELY TO PEAK LATER
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING, POSSIBLY REACHING STORM FORCE,
BUT FOR NOW HAVE HELD TO HIGH-END GALE WATCH UNTIL CERTAINTY IN
STORM-FORCE WINDS GROWS. WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS WE
HEAD THROUGH SUNDAY. IN ADDITION TO THE WIND RISK, WITH MUCH
COLDER AIR MOVING BACK IN, HIGH RISK OF AT LEAST FREEZING SPRAY
ADVISORY CONDITIONS, POSSIBLY REACHING WARNING LEVELS. FOR NOW
HELD OFF ON ANY FREEZING SPRAY HEADLINES, BUT THAT WILL BE
REVISITED IN FUTURE SHIFTS.
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
ANZ430-431-450>455.
DISCUSSION...OHARA/RCM
AVIATION...FITZSIMMONS/OHARA/RCM
MARINE...OHARA/RCM
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