789
FXUS61 KPHI 100716
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
316 AM EDT THU SEP 10 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
06Z TAF UPDATE.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES OTHERWISE.
KEY MESSAGES
1. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THROUGH THE AREA LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT, BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
2. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THE AREA SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY AND PRODUCE A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THROUGH THE AREA LATER
TODAY AND TONIGHT, BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR A ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING,
TOUCHING OFF SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN POCONOS, NORTHERN NEW JERSEY, AND THE
LEHIGH VALLEY THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. CONDITIONS SHOULD
CLEAR OUT BY DAYBREAK.
MOSTLY SUNNY, WARM AND HUMID TODAY WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS RISING
INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S. HIGHS WILL TOP OFF IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S. AS A RESULT, MAX HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE AROUND 90
DEGREES, PERHAPS IN THE LOW 90S IN DELMARVA AND EXTREME
SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATER TODAY. HIGHEST INSTABILITY
WILL BE ACROSS DELMARVA AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY WHERE SBCAPE
VALUES WILL BE AS HIGH AS 500 TO 750 J/KG, AND MUCAPE VALUES
WILL BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER. PWATS WILL BE 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES IN
DELMARVA WHERE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE. IN THESE AREAS
WILL BE THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 2...ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THE AREA
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AND PRODUCE A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
IN THE WAKE OF THURSDAY'S COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE, HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRIEFLY BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR FRIDAY. DRY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80.
HOWEVER, GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT THE FRONT WILL
STALL SOMEWHERE OVER THE CAROLINAS BEFORE LIFTING SLOWLY BACK
NORTH TOWARDS THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND. A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
LOOKS TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND AN AREA OF
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS LIKELY TO RIDE ALONG THE BOUNDARY AS IT
SHIFTS SLOWLY NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA.
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN SCATTERED SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. AS OF RIGHT
NOW, INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE MEAGER, LIMITING ANY SEVERE STORM
THREAT. HOWEVER, FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE AREA INDICATE
DEEPLY SATURATED VERTICAL PROFILES, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OR SO OF THE AREA. PWATS LOOK TO EXCEED 2 INCHES.
GIVEN THIS, ANY STORMS ACROSS THE AREA COULD BE EFFICIENT
RAINFALL PRODUCERS. AS SUCH, THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE SOME
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING. THE WPC HAS
HIGHLIGHTED THE ENTIRE AREA WITH A MARGINAL RISK (1 OF 4) IN
THEIR LATEST EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS
POTENTIAL.
SOME TIME LATE SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY, THE FRONT AND LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRACK OFFSHORE, BRINGING AN END TO THE SHOWER AND
STORM CHANCES AND A RETURN OF TRANQUIL CONDITIONS TO START THE
NEXT WORK WEEK. WITH THAT SAID, TIMING DISCREPANCIES LIMIT
CONFIDENCE ON SUNDAY, AS A SLOWER PROGRESSING SYSTEM COULD LEAD
TO RAIN CHANCES LINGERING AT LEAST INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES, THEY LOOK TO HOLD FAIRLY STEADY IN
THE MID 70S TO MID 80S THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK, WITH PERHAPS A SLOW WARMING TREND.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
EARLY THIS MORNING...VFR. SOME SHRA, POSSIBLY A TSRA AT
KRDG/KABE UP UNTIL 12Z. LIGHT SW WINDS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
TODAY...VFR. W WINDS 5 TO 10 KT IN THE MORNING, TURNING W-NW 10
TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT AFTER 18Z. THERE IS THE CHANCE
FOR SOME SHRA/TSRA, MAINLY AT KMIV/KACY, AND POSSIBLY AT THE
I-95 CORRIDOR TERMINALS. WILL NOT INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS
TIME. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
TONIGHT...MOSTLY VFR, THOUGH SUB-VFR POSSIBLE AT KMIV/ACY.
POTENTIAL FOR SHRA/TSRA AS WELL. LIGHT NW WINDS. LOW CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER.
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...VFR. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER.
MARINE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN UP FOR ALL WATERS FOR WEST TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. THE SCA ENDS
ON DELAWARE BAY AT 8 AM, THEN COMES DOWN ON THE OCEAN WATERS
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS.
BY THIS AFTERNOON, WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL RANGE FROM 5 TO
10 KT.
TONIGHT, WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 KT WILL TURN NORTH LATE.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...NO PREVAILING MARINE HAZARDS
ANTICIPATED WITH WINDS BELOW 25 KT AND SEAS BELOW 5 FEET.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND INTO
PARTS OF SUNDAY.
RIP CURRENTS...
TODAY, SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL RANGE FROM 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS
UP TO 25 MPH IN THE MORNING, DIMINISHING TO 5 TO 10 MPH LATE.
BREAKING WAVES WILL BE 2 TO 3 FEET WITH AN 8 TO 9 SECOND PERIOD.
GIVEN WINDS TURN MORE OFFSHORE AND WILL GRADUALLY BE DECREASING
THROUGH THE DAY, ELECTED TO GO WITH A LOW RISK FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF DANGEROUS AND LIFE THREATENING RIP CURRENTS AT
THE JERSEY SHORE AND DELAWARE BEACHES.
ON FRIDAY, WINDS TURN MORE NORTHERLY AND WILL BE AROUND 5 TO 10
MPH. BREAKING WAVES DECREASE TO 2 FEET OR LESS WITH A PERIOD OF
6 TO 8 SECONDS. WITH MORE TRANQUIL CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CLOSE
OUT THE WEEK, THERE WILL BE A LOW RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS AT ALL
BEACHES.
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ430-
431.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
ANZ450>453.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ454-
455.
DISCUSSION...COOPER/MPS
AVIATION...COOPER/MPS
MARINE...COOPER/MPS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page