342  
FXUS61 KPHI 031346  
AFDPHI  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ  
946 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2020  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL NEAR THE REGION TODAY BEFORE LIFTING NORTH  
AGAIN TONIGHT. MEANWHILE, TROPICAL STORM ISAIAS IS EXPECTED TO  
CONTINUE NORTHWARD FROM FLORIDA AND INLAND ACROSS THE EASTERN  
CAROLINAS LATER TODAY BEFORE REACHING THE MID-ATLANTIC ON TUESDAY.  
ISAIAS WILL MOVE TOWARD NEW ENGLAND BY WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL  
BUILD IN TO OUR NORTH LATER THIS WEEK INTO THIS WEEKEND WHILE A WEAK  
FRONT LINGERS TO OUR SOUTH.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
 
 
JUST ABOUT EVERYONE CROSSING OVER INTO THE 80S AT THIS HOUR.  
SKIES WERE MOSTLY SUNNY FROM THE I95 CORRIDOR EASTWARD.  
 
WHILE THE HI-RES NAM IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THEN THE HRRR WITH THE  
ONSET OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON, THE TREND IS  
THE SAME. OUR CURRENT GRIDS CAPTURE THIS WELL WITH AN INCREASE  
IN CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON SOUTH TO NORTH AS WELL AS INCREASING  
POPS AS WE MOVE ON THROUGH THE DAY. PRECIPITATION WILL BE THE  
MORE SCATTERED VARIETY THIS AFTERNOON. MORE WIDESPREAD  
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING.  
 
TEMPERATURES SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE 80S TODAY. SOME 90S  
POSSIBLE, BUT OVERALL A SLIGHTLY COOLER DAY THAN YESTERDAY.  
 
AWAY FROM THE COAST, WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SW MAINLY 5 TO 10  
MPH. ALONG THE BEACHES, WINDS WILL TURN MORE SOUTHERLY 10 TO 15  
MPH.  
 
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...  
AS WE HEAD INTO THE DAY TODAY, THE SYNOPTIC SETUP WILL CONTINUE  
TO FEATURE A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER MUCH OF THE EAST WITH  
SURFACE RIDGING OFF THE COAST. THERE WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO BE A  
DIFFUSE SOUTH/NORTH ORIENTED FRONT NEAR THE COAST. THIS BOUNDARY  
SHOULD SERVE AS A CONDUIT FOR DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE TO  
STREAM NORTHWARD INTO OUR AREA ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE DAY.  
 
THE CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION IS A BIT TRICKY TODAY GIVEN THE BOUNDARY IN  
PLACE, HOWEVER THE LATEST THINKING IS THAT IT SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY  
THROUGH MIDDAY WITH THE WEAK SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE REGION.  
HOWEVER BY LATER IN THE DAY, DEEPER MOISTURE AHEAD OF ISAIAS  
WILL START TO STREAM NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE REGION. THIS WILL  
OCCUR AS A STRENGTHENING 250 MB JET FROM CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA  
NORTHWARD SHIFTS EASTWARD, WITH OUR AREA STARTING TO GET INTO  
THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION. THE UPSHOT IS THAT SCATTERED  
SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD BE ON THE INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH BY  
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. GIVEN ENHANCED  
SOUTHWESTERLY MID- LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE INCOMING  
UPPER- LEVEL TROUGH, SOME STORM ORGANIZATION MAY OCCUR. STRONG  
TO LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS MAY OCCUR GIVEN STEEPENING LOW- LEVEL  
LAPSE RATES DUE TO BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING. ALSO, GIVEN  
INCREASING PWATS TO AROUND 2+ INCHES, LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL  
WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL. BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWER/STORMS THROUGH  
EARLY THIS EVENING LOOKS TO BE OVER DELMARVA, SE PA, AND  
SOUTHERN NJ AS THE MOISTURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH.  
 
HIGHS TODAY WILL BE NEAR AVERAGE AS THEY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE  
80S TO AROUND 90 WITH LOWER DEW POINTS COMPARED TO SUNDAY AS WELL.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
 
 
***INCREASING CONFIDENCE FOR SIGNIFICANT WIND AND FLOODING IMPACTS  
FROM ISAIAS***  
 
***TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS NOW IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF  
DELMARVA, NJ, AND EASTERN PA***  
 
TONIGHT...BY THIS EVENING, THE UPPER TROUGH TO OUR  
WEST WILL BEGIN TO DEEPEN CONSIDERABLY AND THE JET STREAK JUST TO  
OUR NORTHWEST STRENGTHENS. WE WILL BE IN A SYNOPTICALLY FAVORABLE  
QUADRANT OF THE JET FOR DIVERGENCE AND FORCING FOR ASCENT ALOFT, THE  
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION. SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BECOME MORE PREVALENT  
ALOFT AHEAD OF ISAIAS'S ARRIVAL. THE SURFACE BOUNDARY LOCATED ACROSS  
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTH OF THE  
AREA AS A SECONDARY SURFACE LOW PASSES ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT  
LAKES. SO CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY  
THOUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. PWATS WILL BE NEARING 2+" DURING  
THIS PERIOD AS WELL AS ISAIAS BEGINS RACING NORTH, SO ANY SHOWERS  
AND STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL. THE FLASH  
FLOOD WATCH STARTS 10 PM THIS EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS ACTIVITY  
IN ADDITION TO THE RAINFALL EXPECTED FROM THE TROPICAL SYSTEM ITSELF.  
 
TUESDAY...TROPICAL STORM ISAIAS WILL BE SPEEDING QUICKLY NORTHWARD  
BY EARLY TUESDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED JET STREAK. THE  
CYCLONE WILL LIKELY BE UNDERGOING AN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AS IT  
MOVES FROM THE CAROLINAS ON MONDAY TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC ON  
TUESDAY. IMPORTANT TO NOTE THOUGH, THIS MAY NOT ACTUALLY WEAKEN THE  
STORM AND IT MAY EVEN GAIN STRENGTH FROM THE BAROCLINIC SUPPORT AS  
INDICATED BY THE LATEST ECMWF MODEL RUN. THE STRONG DIVERGENCE ALOFT  
WILL PROMOTE AN ENHANCEMENT OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM  
AND SUPPORT AT LEAST A MAINTENANCE OF ITS STRENGTH. AS FAR AS THE  
TRACK AND TIMING, THERE ISN'T BEEN A BIG CHANGE IN THE FORECAST  
TRACK WITH THIS UPDATE BUT THE TREND WITH GUIDANCE HAS BEEN FOR A  
SLIGHTLY FASTER TIMING. AS WE ARE GETTING CLOSER TO THE ARRIVAL OF  
THIS SYSTEM, CONFIDENCE IS GROWING IN A TRACK THAT TAKES THE SYSTEM  
NE ACROSS THE CWA. HOWEVER EVEN AT THIS TIME RANGE IT'S IMPORTANT TO  
NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT TRACK BUT RATHER THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS. IT  
APPEARS THE GREATEST IMPACTS WILL OCCUR DURING MUCH OF THE DAY  
TUESDAY, PARTICULARLY LATE MORNING AND THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS  
BEFORE THE STORM LIFTS NORTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA.  
 
MULTIPLE HAZARDS ARE BECOMING LIKELY WITH ISAIAS INCLUDING, BUT NOT  
LIMITED TO, FRESH WATER FLOODING, COASTAL FLOODING/STORM SURGE,  
STRONG WINDS AND EVEN ISOLATED TORNADOES. THE GREATEST  
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST TO FALL RIGHT ALONG AND JUST  
WEST OF THE URBAN AND I-95 CORRIDOR WITH 3- 6" OF RAIN WITH  
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. THIS WILL LEAD TO A FLASH  
FLOODING THREAT, ESPECIALLY FOR THE MORE URBANIZED AREAS AND  
PORTIONS OF BERKS COUNTY THAT SAW AN EXCESSIVE AMOUNT OF RAIN  
SUNDAY MORNING. IN FACT THE FLOODING HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE  
WIDESPREAD AND SIGNIFICANT. WE ALSO HAVE GROWING CONCERNS THAT  
WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS MAY BE AN ISSUE. AGAIN, THE SYSTEM  
WILL BE STARTING TO LOSE ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS BUT  
BECAUSE OF THE STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE IT WILL BE MOVING INTO  
THIS COULD ACTUALLY STRENGTHEN IT. WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE FROM  
THE E/SE THEN SHIFT TO NW BEHIND THE SYSTEM. SUSTAINED WINDS OF  
40+ MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST WITH GUSTS POTENTIALLY  
REACHING OVER 60 MPH HERE. FARTHER N/W TOWARDS THE I-95  
CORRIDOR, WIDESPREAD GUSTS OF 45 TO 55+ MPH ARE BECOMING  
INCREASINGLY LIKELY. THE UPSHOT IS THAT THERE COULD BE FAIRLY  
EXTENSIVE IMPACTS POTENTIALLY INCLUDING WIDESPREAD POWER  
OUTAGES. THESE IMPACTS MAY BE EXACERBATED BY THE RAINFALL  
LOOSENING THE GROUND SOIL. COASTAL FLOODING AND/OR STORM SURGE  
WILL BE DIRECTLY DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT TIMING AND TRACK OF THE  
SYSTEM AND THIS IS FURTHER DESCRIBED IN THE SECTION BELOW.  
FINALLY, WITH A FAVORED TRACK NEAR THE COAST OR JUST INLAND,  
THIS WILL SET UP VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR JUST AHEAD OF AND  
EAST OF THE STORM AND THIS COULD CAUSE A SPIN UP OF A FEW  
TORNADOES TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE MOST FAVORED AREAS FOR THIS ARE  
NEAR AND S/E OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR.  
 
TUESDAY NIGHT...AS ISAIAS DEPARTS INTO TUESDAY EVENING, A REMNANT  
SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.  
WE'LL STILL BE A IN A FAVORABLE LOCATION FOR SYNOPTIC SUPPORT FOR  
CONVECTION WITH THE JET STREAK STILL LOCATED JUST TO OUR NORTHWEST.  
SO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO THE  
OVERNIGHT, ALTHOUGH THE ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH THROUGH TIME.  
CLOUDY SKIES WILL BEGIN TO BREAK OVERNIGHT AS WELL WITH LOWS WITHIN  
A FEW DEGREES OF 70 AND HUMID.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
 
 
THE LONG TERM PATTERN TRENDS QUIETER AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH  
SLOWLY LIFTS OUT OF THE EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TO OUR  
NORTH THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER A DIFFUSE FRONTAL  
BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY LINGER NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION AT  
LEAST THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. THE UPSHOT IS MOST DAYS  
SHOULD FEATURE A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS WITH AT LEAST SOME CHANCES  
FOR AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHOWER/STORMS. HOWEVER THESE MAY NOT  
BE VERY WIDESPREAD MOST DAYS SO MUCH OF THE TIME IT WILL BE DRY WITH  
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND MODERATE HUMIDITY LEVELS. IN OTHER WORDS  
A MORE TYPICAL, BENIGN SUMMER WEATHER PATTERN.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,  
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.  
 
TODAY...MAINLY VFR. HOWEVER, CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS  
WILL INCREASE LATE IN THE DAY (MAINLY AFTER 21Z), WITH BRIEF  
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN THEIR PROXIMITY. ANY STORMS WILL BE  
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS AND TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS.  
OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION, WINDS GENERALLY SOUTHWEST 5 TO 15 KT,  
WITH DIRECTIONS LIKELY BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY BY EVENING. HIGH  
CONFIDENCE THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON; LOW CONFIDENCE THEREAFTER,  
PARTICULARLY REGARDING COVERAGE/TIMING OF PRECIPITATION.  
 
TONIGHT...GRADUALLY DETERIORATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH  
PERIODS OF SHOWERS/STORMS. BRIEF RESTRICTIONS LIKELY IN  
PROXIMITY TO CONVECTION. PREVAILING CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO  
MVFR FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AFTER 06Z. WINDS LIKELY SOUTHERLY  
AROUND 10 KT, BUT WILL BE ERRATIC AND POTENTIALLY GUSTY NEAR  
SHOWERS/STORMS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
 
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...MAIN IMPACTS FROM ISAIAS EXPECTED THIS  
PERIOD, WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS EXPECTED AND FREQUENT VSBY RESTRICTIONS  
LIKELY WITH HEAVY RAIN AND ISOLATED STORMS. SOUTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 20  
KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS LIKELY, WITH SPEEDS/GUSTS MUCH HIGHER NEAR THE  
TRACK OF ISAIAS AND NEAR THE COAST. A QUICK SWITCH TO WEST OR  
SOUTHWEST WINDS IS LIKELY BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING AS ISAIAS  
MOVES RAPIDLY NORTHEAST OF THE REGION, WITH SPEEDS/GUSTS QUICKLY  
LOWERING AND PRECIPITATION DIMINISHING. HIGH CONFIDENCE ON GENERAL  
EVOLUTION, BUT LOW CONFIDENCE ON SPECIFIC IMPACTS AT EACH TERMINAL  
GIVEN TRACK/TIMING UNCERTAINTY WITH ISAIAS.  
 
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH WEST WINDS 5 TO 15 KT. A CHANCE OF  
SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH BRIEF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE. MODERATE  
CONFIDENCE.  
 
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR; HOWEVER, CHANCES OF  
SHOWERS/STORMS EXIST THROUGH THE PERIOD (ESPECIALLY  
AFTERNOON/EVENING), WITH BRIEF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE. FOG MAY  
DEVELOP DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS, ESPECIALLY IN LOCATIONS WHERE  
RAIN FALLS THE PREVIOUS DAY. WINDS MAINLY EASTERLY UP TO 10 KT.  
MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS EARLY THIS  
MORNING AS SEAS CONTINUE TO HOVER NEAR 5 FEET. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO  
SUBSIDE BRIEFLY TODAY AND TONIGHT BEFORE IMPACTS FROM ISAIAS  
INCREASE QUICKLY BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE  
SOUTHERLY AT 10 TO 20 KT WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS.  
 
A CHANCE OF STORMS EXISTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT, WITH  
GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HIGHER WAVES IN THEIR PROXIMITY.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
 
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN EFFECT,  
WITH IMPACTS FROM ISAIAS EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD. VERY STRONG  
EAST/SOUTHEAST WINDS AND RAPIDLY RISING SEAS (TO ABOVE 10 FEET) ARE  
EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH SHOWERY CONDITIONS. A RAPID SWITCH TO  
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL OCCUR AS ISAIAS PROGRESSES NORTHEAST INTO NEW  
ENGLAND BY TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY, BUT SEAS  
MAY LINGER ABOVE 5 FEET THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.  
 
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY...SUB-ADVISORY WINDS/SEAS  
EXPECTED. OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.  
 
RIP CURRENTS...  
 
A MEDIUM-PERIOD SOUTHEASTERLY SWELL WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY, WITH  
SURF CONDITIONS LIKELY DETERIORATING GRADUALLY. THESE CONDITIONS  
FAVOR A MODERATE RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS.  
 
ON TUESDAY, IMPACTS FROM ISAIAS WILL INCREASE THE RIP-CURRENT RISK  
LEVEL TO HIGH. IN ADDITION, HIGH SURF IS EXPECTED. A RIP CURRENT  
RISK STATEMENT AND HIGH SURF ADVISORY ARE IN EFFECT FOR THIS PERIOD.  
 
THE RIP CURRENT RISK WILL LIKELY REMAIN ELEVATED ON WEDNESDAY.  
 

 
   
HYDROLOGY
 
 
HYDRO CONCERNS WILL BEGIN AS EARLY AS THIS EVENING AS SHOWER/STORMS  
DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF ISAIAS. ANY OF THESE WILL BE  
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAIN WITH AT LEAST LOCALIZED FLASH  
FLOODING POSSIBLE. THE HEAVIEST, STEADIEST RAIN WITH THE STORM WILL  
ARRIVE LATER TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. MORE WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING  
WILL BE AN INCREASING THREAT BY THIS TIME. MOST SUSECPTIBLE  
AREAS WILL BE NEAR AND N/W OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR ESPECIALLY  
SINCE PLACES SUCH AS IN BERKS COUNTY HAVE RECEIVED SO MUCH  
RAINFALL RECENTLY. WITH ISAIAS, 3 TO 6 INCHES OF RAIN, WITH  
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED. THEREFORE, THE FLASH FLOOD  
WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT AS AGAIN, FLOODING COULD BE WIDESPREAD  
AND SIGNIFICANT.  
 
IN ADDITION TO FLASH FLOODING, RIVER FLOODING IS ALSO BECOMING AN  
INCREASING THREAT ESPECIALLY IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN  
PENNSYLVANIA WHICH HAVE ALREADY BEEN AFFECTED BY THE EARLIER ROUNDS  
OF HEAVY RAIN.  
 

 
   
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
 
 
A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN SHORE OF  
CHESAPEAKE BAY IN NORTHEAST MARYLAND. THERE REMAINS CONSIDERABLE  
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TIMING AND EXACT TRACK OF ISAIAS AND  
ITS ULTIMATE IMPACTS ON CHESAPEAKE BAY. MODELS REMAIN FAIRLY  
MODEST WITH FORECAST WATER LEVELS, BUT THIS IS A COMMON BIAS IN  
THESE REGIMES, WITH GUIDANCE OFTEN PERFORMING QUITE POORLY (AND  
MUCH TOO LOW). WE SUSPECT SURGE ASSOCIATED WITH ISAIAS WILL  
LIKELY LEAD TO MINOR TO POTENTIALLY MODERATE FLOODING TUESDAY  
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE  
DEVIATIONS FROM THE TIMING OF HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDE. WE DECIDED  
TO LEAVE A LARGE BUFFER ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE  
FOR THIS REASON.  
 
ISAIAS WILL LIKELY ACCELERATE AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION ON  
TUESDAY. THIS TENDS TO LIMIT COASTAL FLOODING IMPACTS IN OUR  
AREA, AS THE DURATION OF ONSHORE FLOW WILL BE LIMITED. HOWEVER,  
MODELS ARE TRENDING A LITTLE STRONGER WITH THE LOW (AND THE  
ASSOCIATED ONSHORE FLOW), WHICH IS WORRISOME. THE STRONGER FLOW  
MAY COMPENSATE FOR THE SHORT DURATION. FURTHERMORE, THOUGH  
CURRENT FORECASTS WOULD SUGGEST THE STRONGEST SURGE WOULD OCCUR  
OUT OF PHASE WITH ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE, UNCERTAINTY IN THE  
TIMING SUGGESTS THIS IS NOT GUARANTEED. FOR THESE REASONS,  
SUSPECT MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE  
ATLANTIC COASTS OF NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE, WITH ISOLATED  
MODERATE FLOODING POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN NEW JERSEY.  
 
FOR DELAWARE BAY AND THE TIDAL DELAWARE RIVER, A FEW FACTORS  
LEAD TO MORE ELEVATED CONCERNS. FIRST, A STRONG SOUTHEAST FETCH  
WILL OCCUR IN ADVANCE OF ISAIAS, WHICH IS FAVORABLE FOR COASTAL FLOODING  
IN THESE AREAS. SECOND, THE TIMING OF HIGH TIDE MORE CLOSELY  
ALIGNS WITH THE STRONGEST FORECAST SURGE. THIRD, FOR THE TIDAL  
DELAWARE RIVER, FRESHWATER RUNOFF FROM ANTICIPATED HEAVY  
RAINFALL MAY EXACERBATE TIDAL FLOODING. HAVE INCREASED FORECAST  
WATER LEVELS IN THESE AREAS ON TUESDAY, WITH AT LEAST MINOR  
FLOODING A POSSIBILITY.  
 

 
   
EQUIPMENT
 
 
THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO ALL-HAZARDS BROADCAST FROM HIBERNIA PARK  
PENNSYLVANIA (STATION WNG-704) REMAINS OFF THE AIR.  
 

 
   
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
PA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING  
FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-070-071-101>106.  
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR PAZ070-071-104-106.  
NJ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING  
FOR NJZ001-007>010-012>027.  
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR NJZ008>010-015>019.  
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR NJZ012>014-020>027.  
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY  
EVENING FOR NJZ014-024>026.  
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TUESDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT TUESDAY  
NIGHT FOR NJZ014-024>026.  
DE...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING  
FOR DEZ001>004.  
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR DEZ001.  
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR DEZ002>004.  
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY  
EVENING FOR DEZ004.  
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TUESDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT TUESDAY  
NIGHT FOR DEZ004.  
MD...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING  
FOR MDZ008-012-015-019-020.  
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR MDZ008-012.  
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR MDZ015-019-020.  
COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY  
NIGHT FOR MDZ008-012-015-019-020.  
MARINE...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ANZ430-431-450>455.  

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...FITZSIMMONS  
NEAR TERM...FITZSIMMONS/KRUZDLO  
SHORT TERM...FITZSIMMONS  
LONG TERM...FITZSIMMONS  
AVIATION...CMS  
MARINE...CMS  
HYDROLOGY...WFO PHI  
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...WFO PHI  
EQUIPMENT...WFO PHI  
 
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