682
FXUS61 KPHI 070944
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
544 AM EDT THU MAY 7 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1. COOLER TODAY WITH LINGERING SHOWERS ENDING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
THROUGH THIS MORNING. SOME ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN
OUR NORTHERN ZONES TONIGHT.
2. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND WITH A FEW CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...COOLER TODAY WITH LINGERING SHOWERS ENDING FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THIS MORNING. SOME ADDITIONAL SCATTERED
SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN OUR NORTHERN ZONES TONIGHT.
THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH THE AREA BUT THERE ARE STILL SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS OVER PORTIONS OF DELMARVA AND SOUTHERN NJ THIS
MORNING. THESE WILL TAPER OFF FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THIS MORNING AND
WILL BE CLEARED OF THE AREA BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE,
MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES EARLY THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO A MIX OF SUN
AND CLOUDS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 60S.
FOR TONIGHT, A SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO PIVOT AROUND THE PERSISTENT UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH DOMINATING THE EAST AND THIS COULD PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS
FOR OUR NORTHERN ZONES (MAINLY NEAR AND NORTH OF THE I-78 CORRIDOR)
BY LATE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. IT WON'T BE MUCH THOUGH AND POPS
ARE ONLY AROUND 20 TO 30 PERCENT.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND WITH A
FEW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN SEASONABLE THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 AND LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO LOW
50S FOR MOST.
AN UNSETTLED PATTERN LOOKS TO TAKE SHAPE ACROSS THE REGION
BEGINNING ON SATURDAY, WITH A SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH THE
REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AN ATTENDANT AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOOKS TO PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA, WITH A TRAILING
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
SCATTERED OR EVEN WIDESPREAD SHOWER DEVELOPMENT LATE SATURDAY
MORNING INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS DO ALLOW FOR SOME MODEST
DESTABILIZATION TO TAKE PLACE, AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS
THE AREA INDICATE AROUND 500 J/KG OF MUCAPE AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
IN ADDITION, WIND FIELDS ALOFT WILL BE FAIRLY STRONG. THEREFORE,
WHILE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED, A
FEW STRONGER STORMS CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT AND THIS WILL
BEAR WATCHING AS SATURDAY APPROACHES.
AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE ON SATURDAY, HEIGHT RISES
ALOFT AND A BRIEF PERIOD OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL
ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS MOST OF THE DAY SUNDAY AS WELL AS FOR
SUBSTANTIAL WARMING TO TAKE PLACE WITH RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF THE
NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
SUNDAY LOOK TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S FOR MOST, THOUGH IT IS NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A FEW LOCATIONS COULD REACH 80.
ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE AND AN ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT
LOOK TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING, BRINGING WITH IT ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND PERHAPS
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS, IN ADDITION TO COOLER TEMPERATURES TO
START THE NEXT WORK WEEK.
AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS...
TODAY...VFR. SCT/BKN CLOUDS EXPECTED, WITH PERIODS OF CLEAR SKY
AROUND MID-DAY. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5-10 KT. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
TONIGHT...VFR WITH W/NW WINDS GENERALLY AROUND 5 KNOTS. HIGH
CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER.
SATURDAY...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY AT TIMES IN SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER.
SUNDAY...PRIMARILY VFR, BRIEF PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED SHOWERS.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY AT
TIMES IN SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
MARINE
WINDS MAY CONTINUE TO OCCASIONALLY GUST 20-25 KNOTS EARLY THIS
MORNING BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT SUB SCA CONDITIONS FOR TODAY THROUGH
TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...NO MARINE HEADLINES CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED WITH WINDS UNDER 25 KT AND SEAS UNDER 5 FEET.
SATURDAY...SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY WITH SOUTH WINDS 15-20 KT AND
GUSTS AROUND 25 KT. SEAS 3-6 FEET. SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...NO MARINE HEADLINES
CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED WITH WINDS UNDER 25 KT AND SEAS UNDER 5
FEET. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT.
MONDAY...SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH NORTH WINDS 15-20 KT AND
GUSTS NEAR 25 KT. SEAS 3-6 FEET. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY EARLY.
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...COOPER/FITZSIMMONS
AVIATION...COOPER/FITZSIMMONS
MARINE...COOPER/FITZSIMMONS
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