040
FXUS61 KPHI 061026
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
626 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION FOR 12Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TODAY COULD LEAD TO
FURTHER INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING. HOWEVER THE THREAT FOR
WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING HAS DIMINISHED.
2) HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR WEDNESDAY WITH THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS RETURNING AGAIN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1... ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TODAY COULD LEAD TO
FURTHER INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING. HOWEVER THE THREAT FOR
WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING HAS DIMINISHED.
FOR THE DAY TODAY, A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER TO
OUR SOUTH OVER EASTERN VIRGINIA WHILE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NEAR
EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A CONTINUING EAST TO
NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW AND FURTHER ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ESPECIALLY BY THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER
THE BEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AS WELL AS UPPER LEVEL RIGHT JET
ENTRANCE DYNAMICS WILL BE SHIFTED SLIGHTLY EAST COMPARED TO
SUNDAY. THE RESULT OF THIS WILL BE THAT THE HEAVIEST OF THE
RAINFALL WILL BE FAVORED NEAR NYC EAST THROUGH LONG ISLAND AND
NORTH INTO PARTS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS IS THE AREA NOW
IN A MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FROM THE WEATHER
PREDICTION CENTER WHILE MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA IS IN A SLIGHT
RISK. THIS STILL MEANS THAT SCATTERED INSTANCES OF FLASH
FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE AND THE FLOOD WATCH THAT WAS ISSUED
YESTERDAY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING. EXPECT A
GENERALLY LULL IN SHOWERS THIS MORNING BEFORE SHOWERS AND
STORMS BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AGAIN BY THE AFTERNOON. RAIN RATES
OF OVER 2 INCHES PER HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH URBAN, LOW
LYING AREAS, AND AREAS THAT WERE HIT HARD WITH RAINFALL THIS
PAST EVENING SEEING THE BEST CHANCE FOR FLASH FLOODING.
OTHERWISE, IT'S ALSO WORTH NOTING THAT IT WILL NOT BE GETTING
QUITE AS UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO MUCH OF THE AREA BEING
"WORKED OVER" BY PREVIOUS CONVECTION AND MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES.
THIS WILL LIMIT THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER. THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER HAS OUR DELMARVA ZONES IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER (MEANING ANY SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD BE ISOLATED) WITH THE
REMAINDER OF OUR CWA IN A GENERAL RISK (NON SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS). DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE BIGGEST THREAT WITH
ANY SEVERE STORMS.
FOR TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY, LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE OFF TO
THE NORTH AND EAST AS SEVERAL ADDITIONAL WEAK IMPULSES OF ENERGY
ALOFT MOVE THROUGH. SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH IN COVERAGE
THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH RATES DIMINISHING AS WELL. SOME ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY FOR TUESDAY BUT THEY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY
SO NO FURTHER FLOODING IS EXPECTED.
KEY MESSAGE 2...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR WEDNESDAY WITH THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURNING AGAIN FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR WEDNESDAY WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED.
AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND, A NEW
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE IN FROM
THE WEST BRINGING A RETURN TO CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. POPS
INCREASE TO 30-40 PERCENT BY THURSDAY AND THEN 40-60 PERCENT BY
FRIDAY. IT'S POSSIBLE THAT THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/STORMS
LINGER FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND HOWEVER FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
LOW BY THIS TIME.
AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
TODAY...A FEW SHOWERS AROUND THIS MORNING WITH CIGS MAINLY IFR
TO LOW MVFR. MOST SITES SHOULD SEE CIGS LIFT TO MVFR THIS
AFTERNOON BUT THERE WILL ONCE AGAIN BE SOME THUNDERSTORMS AROUND
THAT COULD AFFECT TAF SITES AFTER 18Z. BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS
WILL NEAR THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND POINTS SOUTHWARD.
EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS AT 5-10 KT. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
TONIGHT...SHOWERS/STORMS DIMINISHING THROUGH THE EVENING BUT
CIGS LIKELY LOWERING THROUGH THE EVENING TO IFR. NORTHEAST WINDS
5-10 KNOTS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AROUND WITH
GENERALLY MVFR CIGS.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS RETURN BY LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AND THIS COULD RESULT IN SUB VFR CONDITIONS
AT TIMES.
MARINE
NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT. EAST WINDS
GENERALLY 10-20 KNOTS FOR MONDAY SHIFTING TO NORTH/NORTHEAST
MONDAY NIGHT. SEAS GENERALLY 2-3 FEET EXCEPT UP TO 4 FEET BY
LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT OFF THE COAST OF MONMOUTH AND
OCEAN COUNTIES. EXPECT ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS OVER THE
WATERS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WEEK.
RIP CURRENTS...
THROUGH TUESDAY...WINDS REMAIN EAST TO SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 KT,
WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. RESULTING INCREASING NE
WIND WAVE WILL RETURN AN ELEVATED MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK
ALONG MUCH OF THE JERSEY SHORE MONDAY AND TUESDAY, WITH LOW RISK
PERSISTING OVER CAPE MAY/ATLANTIC COUNTIES AND THE DELAWARE
BEACHES, WHERE WINDS REMAIN LIGHTER AND MORE SSE THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.
FOR SPECIFIC BEACH FORECASTS, VISIT WEATHER.GOV/BEACH/PHI
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-070-
071-101>106.
NJ...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NJZ001-007>010-012>027.
DE...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR DEZ001.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...FITZSIMMONS
AVIATION...FITZSIMMONS
MARINE...FITZSIMMONS
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