148
FXUS61 KPHI 231657
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1257 PM EDT FRI OCT 23 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION FOR 18Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
1. ELEVATED TIDE CYCLES PERSIST DUE TO POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE
JOSEPHINE WELL OFF THE COAST, RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING CONTINUING IN OCEAN COUNTY, NJ AND SUSSEX
COUNTY, DE.
2. FROST AND FREEZE IMPACTS POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT
WHERE THE GROWING SEASON CONTINUES.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...ELEVATED TIDE CYCLES PERSIST DUE TO POST-
TROPICAL CYCLONE JOSEPHINE WELL OFF THE COAST, RESULTING IN
WIDESPREAD MINOR COASTAL FLOODING CONTINUING IN OCEAN COUNTY, NJ
AND SUSSEX COUNTY, DE.
AS POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE JOSEPHINE LINGERS WELL OFF THE COAST
ELEVATED TIDE CYCLES ARE PERSISTING SOME AREAS.
IN OCEAN COUNTY, NEW JERSEY AND SUSSEX COUNTY, DELAWARE, WATER
LEVELS REMAIN ELEVATED AND MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS CONTINUING,
PARTICULARLY IN THE BACK BAYS. IN FACT A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE
BACK BAYS CAME VERY CLOSE TO OR EVEN TOUCHED MODERATE LEVELS OF
COASTAL FLOODING YESTERDAY WITH THE HIGH TIDE. IT'S GOING TO
TAKE SOME TIME FOR WATER LEVELS TO DIMINISH IN THESE AREAS SO
WE'VE CONTINUED THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THESE COUNTIES
THROUGH THIS EVENING. ELSEWHERE ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST AND
DELAWARE BAY ANY ADDITIONAL COASTAL FLOODING LOOKS TO BE SPOTTY
AT MOST.
AT THIS TIME WE ARE NOT FORECASTING ANY COASTAL FLOODING FOR
THE MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE.
KEY MESSAGE 2...FROST AND FREEZE IMPACTS POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY NIGHT WHERE THE GROWING SEASON CONTINUES.
AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PIVOTS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TODAY, A
STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE IN THE PLAINS TO MIDWEST SHIFTS EASTWARD
SOME INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL SUPPORT STRONG SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTING EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
A CHILLY AND DRY AIR MASS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS STRONG SURFACE
HIGH, AND AS THE HIGH ITSELF SETTLES MORE OVERHEAD, THE WINDS
WILL DECOUPLE. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING BOTH TONIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THE FORECAST LOWS ARE
IN THE 30S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA (AWAY FROM THE COASTS AND
OUTSIDE OF THE URBAN CENTERS) WITH A FROST AND FREEZE POTENTIAL.
THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR WINDS TO STAY A BIT ELEVATED TONIGHT
SO OPTED TO MAINTAIN THE EXISTING FREEZE WATCH FOR LOCATIONS NW
OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR WHERE THE GROWING SEASON REMAINS ACTIVE.
FROST ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED OUTSIDE OF THESE AREAS FOR
TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY IF THE RADIATIONAL COOLING ENDS UP BEING
STRONGER. ANOTHER ROUND OF NEAR FREEZING LOWS IS POSSIBLE
SATURDAY NIGHT WHEN ADDITIONAL HEADLINES MAY BE NECESSARY.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
REST OF TODAY (THROUGH 00Z)...VFR. NORTH WINDS AROUND 7-12 KT
WILL BECOME MORE EASTERLY LATE IN THE DAY. A FEW GUSTS UP TO
15 KT POSSIBLE IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
TONIGHT...VFR. WINDS NORTHEAST AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS. HIGH
CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...VFR. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
EXPECTED.
MARINE
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE NEW JERSEY AND
DELAWARE NEARSHORE WATERS AS POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE JOSEPHINE
GRADUALLY MOVES FARTHER OUT TO SEA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE HOWEVER DUE
TO STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH. SEAS OF 5-10 FEET ON THE
OCEAN. THE WINDS AND SEAS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH THROUGH
TODAY, THOUGH SEAS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO REMAIN ELEVATED
ABOVE 5 FEET THROUGH TONIGHT AND MUCH OF SATURDAY.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE CONDITIONS SHOULD BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA.
TUESDAY...SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH SEAS AROUND 5 FEET.
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...FREEZE WATCH FROM MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING FOR PAZ060-061-101-103-105.
NJ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NJZ020-
026.
FREEZE WATCH FROM MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING FOR NJZ008>010.
DE...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR DEZ003-
004.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ450.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ451>455.
DISCUSSION...DESILVA/FITZSIMMONS/GORSE/GUZZO/RCM
AVIATION...DESILVA/GORSE/GUZZO/MJL/RCM
MARINE...DESILVA/GORSE/GUZZO/RCM
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page