935
FXUS61 KPHI 020727
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
327 AM EDT FRI OCT 2 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1. WELL ABOVE NORMAL (SUMMERLIKE) TEMPERATURES TODAY THEN SHOWERS
AND COOLER TEMPS FOLLOW FOR TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
2. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
RAIN CHANCES REMAIN ABOUT THE SAME AS YESTERDAY HOWEVER.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1... WELL ABOVE NORMAL (SUMMERLIKE) TEMPERATURES TODAY THEN
SHOWERS AND COOLER TEMPS FOLLOW FOR TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE WILL A VERY MILD AND HUMID AIRMASS
HAS ESTABLISHED ITSELF ACROSS OUR AREA. TODAY WILL BE THE WARMEST
DAY OF THE STRETCH WITH LOW/MID 80S WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA.
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN POCONOS. DRY CONDITIONS
SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH MID-DAY.
THIS WILL CHANGE THIS AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS
THE REGION THIS EVENING AND EARLY TONIGHT AND WILL SETTLE OVER
DELMARVA ON SATURDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON,
MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR, THEN SPREAD EAST TONIGHT.
THE SHOWERS TAPER OFF IN MOST AREAS BY SATURDAY MORNING, BUT ACROSS
SOUTHERN DELAWARE AND SOUTH NJ, WE'LL KEEP SOME CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS FOR SATURDAY AS THE FRONT BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY OVER
THE MID-ATLANTIC. OVERALL, QPF WILL BE LESS THAN 1/10 INCH BUT
A FEW AREAS CLOSER TO 2/10THS OF AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE.
KEY MESSAGE 2...UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN ABOUT THE SAME AS YESTERDAY
HOWEVER.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH DURING
SATURDAY. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR MOST OF THE AREA AND PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS DELMARVA AND EXTREME SOUTHERN NEW
JERSEY WITH SEASONABLE, BUT SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES.
AFTER THAT, LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ON THAT STALLED FRONT AND PASSES
CROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND DELMARVA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
PREVIOUS FCST HAS LOW-END LIKELY POPS FOR SOUTHERN DELAWARE AND
THE 50%-60% CHANCE RIBBON RUNS ALONG THE DELAWARE VALLEY AND UP
INTO NORTHERN OCEAN COUNTY. LOW CHANCE POPS ARE INCLUDED NOW FOR
THE SOUTHERN POCONOS AND LEHIGH VALLEY. THESE ARE PERHAPS 0-5%
HIGHER THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY. THE PRESENT FORECAST QPF TOTALS
ARE A BIT LIGHTER THAN PREVIOUS FCSTS. CURRENT TOTALS ARE A
HALF-INCH ACROSS SOUTHERN DE AND 0.1 TO 0.2 FOR THE DELAWARE
VALLEY.
HIGH PRESSURE AND A MUCH COOLER AIR MASS THEN BUILDS INTO THE
REGION STARTING MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY
ARE ONLY NEAR 60 DEGREES FOR MUCH OF THE REGION, WHICH IS
UPWARDS OF 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. SOME PATCHY FROST IS
POSSIBLE BY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. FORECAST LOWS
ARE IN THE MID 30S NORTH OF I-78, AND IN THE LOW TO MID 40S
ELSEWHERE.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
TODAY... VFR MUCH OF THE TIME. INCREASING CLOUDS THRU THE DAY
AND SHOWERS WILL ARRIVE FROM THE NW AND SWEEP SE WHILE
DIMINISHING. LOWER CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS. CHOSE THE VCSH FOR
THE 06Z TAFS ATTM. SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KTS
AFTER 13Z/14Z WITH SOME G20-25 KTS DEVELOPING. WINDS WILL TURN
W OR NW AT KRDG/KABE BEFORE 23Z. MEDIUM/HIGH CONFID.
TONIGHT...MOSTLY VFR, BUT A SHORT PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE
FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT THIS EVENING. SOME TEMPO GROUPS IN THE
N/W SITES AND KPNE/KTTN FOR THIS. WINDS TURNING NW TO N AROUND 5
TO 10 KTS FOLLOWING THE FRONT. MEDIUM CONFID.
SATURDAY... VFR EXPECTED. A FEW CLOUDS/SHOWERS FOR KMIV/KACY
EARLY WITH A CHANCE OF A RESTRICTION. NORTH WINDS INCREASING TO
AROUND 10 KNOTS. MEDIUM CONFID.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT... VFR BUT PATCHY RURAL FOG POSSIBLE.
SUNDAY... WIDESPREAD MVFR WITH IFR POSSIBLE S/E WITH FREQUENT
SHOWERS DELMARVA AND SOUTH NJ. FOR N/W AREAS MORE VFR CIGS WITH
SOME MVFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR. FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED.
MARINE
TODAY/TONIGHT...SUB-SCA EXPECTED WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS
EVENING AND EARLY TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST TODAY THEN
SHIFTING NORTHWEST THIS EVENING.
SATURDAY... CONTINUED SUB-SCA WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FROM
THE NORTH. SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE EARLY FOR SOUTHERN NJ/DELAWARE
AND DELAWARE BAY WATERS. NORTH WINDS BECOMING 10 TO 15 KTS WITH
GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT THRU SUNDAY...SUB-SCA EXPECTED. LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE ALONG A STALLED FRONT AND BRING SHOWERS ACROSS THE WATERS
AT TIMES.
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
WATERS WITH FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED. WHILE WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN
BELOW SCA LEVELS MUCH OF THE TIME, SOME 4-5 FT SEAS AND GUSTS
AROUND 25 KTS ARE POSSIBLE LATER MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY.
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...WFO PHI
AVIATION...WFO PHI
MARINE...AKL/WFO PHI
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