099
FXUS61 KPHI 230937
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
537 AM EDT WED SEP 23 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE COASTAL FLOOD WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES FOR DELAWARE BAY AND
ATLANTIC COASTAL NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE WERE EXTENDED IN TIME
TO COVER HIGH TIDES THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.
A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF MARYLAND'S
EASTERN SHORE.
THE WIND ADVISORY FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE
WAS EXTENDED IN TIME THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.
THE GALE WARNING FOR THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS WAS EXTENDED IN
TIME THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
A STORM WATCH WAS ISSUED FOR ALL OFFSHORE WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1. LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT DELMARVA AND FAR SOUTHERN
NEW JERSEY THROUGH THIS MORNING.
2. A STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL
KEEP PERSISTENT NORTHEAST TO NORTH FLOW IN PLACE THROUGH AT
LEAST FRIDAY. DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW, IT COULD BRING
INCREASED RAINFALL CHANCES AND WINDY CONDITIONS TO THE PARTS OF
THE REGION FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
3. MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SIGNIFICANT TIDAL FLOODING EXPECTED FOR
THIS WEEK. COASTAL FLOOD WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES ISSUED.
4. DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS AND HIGH SURF ARE EXPECTED AT THE
JERSEY SHORE AND DELAWARE BEACHES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION IS ALSO LIKELY. BREACHING OF SAND
DUNES IS POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT DELMARVA AND
FAR SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY THROUGH THIS MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE WELL TO THE NORTH CONTINUES TO PUSH ITS INFLUENCE
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER, THERE REMAINS BROAD
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT THAT IS SUFFICIENT TO KEEP A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN
EXTENDING INTO DELMARVA AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY. THE UPPER
FORCING FOR ASCENT LOOKS TO WANE BY DAWN, AND THUS THE BAND OF
RAIN SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 9-10 AM.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD WILL KEEP PERSISTENT NORTHEAST TO NORTH FLOW IN PLACE
THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW, IT
COULD BRING INCREASED RAINFALL CHANCES AND WINDY CONDITIONS TO
THE PARTS OF THE REGION FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
A MID-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY TRAVERSING PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD AND AMPLIFY TOWARDS
THE EASTERN SEABOARD TODAY. WEAK SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS HAS BEGUN
OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS, WITH THE LOW EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE INTENSIFYING THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK. THE INITIAL TRACK
OF THE DEVELOPING LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE TO THE NORTHEAST, WELL
OFFSHORE. HOWEVER, WITH A STRONG HIGH CENTERED OVER PORTIONS OF
QUEBEC, A SHARP PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION WILL AT LEAST
LEAD TO BREEZY CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY. THE STRONGEST
PRESSURE GRADIENT, AND THUS WINDS, ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR ON
TODAY INTO TONIGHT. IT SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY TODAY (FOLLOWING
THE EARLY MORNING LIGHT RAIN) THROUGH THURSDAY.
GIVEN A CONSISTENT FORECAST FOR SUSTAINED NORTHEAST WINDS 25-35
MPH ALONG THE ATLANTIC COASTS OF NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE TODAY,
THE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL
STRIP. THIS WAS EXTENDED IN TIME THROUGH 8 PM THURSDAY EVENING,
MAINLY DUE TO THE FORECAST FOR SUSTAINED WINDS CONTINUING INTO
THURSDAY. SOME GUSTS NEAR 45-50 MPH ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.
FOR LATE THIS WEEK INTO THIS WEEKEND, MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS
LARGELY SPLIT INTO TWO CAMPS. ONE CAMP ALLOWS THE LOW TO
CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION, AND THE
OTHER CAMP FEATURES A WESTWARD DEVIATION OF THE LOW, OR EVEN
ADDITIONAL SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS CLOSER TO THE COAST. GIVEN THESE
FACTORS, UNCERTAINTY FOR FRIDAY AND BEYOND REMAINS QUITE HIGH,
WITH A LARGE RANGE OF POTENTIAL OUTCOMES. THE DETERMINISTIC EC
AND ALL OF ITS ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO FEATURE THE SCENARIO THAT
WOULD LEAD TO GREATER IMPACTS. THE DETERMINISTIC GFS REMAINS FAR
ENOUGH OUT TO SEA TO KEEP IMPACTS CONFINED TO THE IMMEDIATE
COAST WITH GUSTY WINDS AND MINIMAL RAINFALL. THE 00Z
DETERMINISTIC GFS AND EC RUNS WERE BOTH SLOWER IN THE LOW
PRESSURE STRENGTHENING AND A BIT FARTHER EAST AGAIN, WHICH DOES
SEEM TO BE A MORE PROBABLE SOLUTION GIVEN UPPER LEVEL WIND FIELD
EVOLUTION. NEVERTHELESS, UNCERTAINTY FOR FORECAST DETAILS FRIDAY
AND BEYOND REMAINS HIGH. WITH THAT SAID, REGARDLESS OF THE
EXACT OUTCOME, COASTAL FLOODING, MARINE AND SURF HAZARDS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY.
POPS INCREASED SOME IN THE EASTERN HALF OF OUR AREA, AND ARE NOW
IN THE 20-60% RANGE INTO THE WEEKEND. REGARDLESS OF WHICH
SCENARIO PANS OUT, PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND WINDS WILL BE
HIGHEST CLOSE TO THE COAST AND DECREASE WITH INLAND EXTENT.
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, REGARDLESS OF WHICH SCENARIO
ULTIMATELY PANS OUT, THE LOW WILL BEGIN TO TRACK AWAY FROM THE
AREA, ALLOWING RAIN CHANCES TO DECREASE AND WINDS TO SUBSIDE.
KEY MESSAGE 3...MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SIGNIFICANT TIDAL FLOODING
EXPECTED FOR THIS WEEK. COASTAL FLOOD WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES
ARE IN EFFECT.
WITH A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM AND MULTIPLE DAYS OF STRONG
NORTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED, THE CONFIDENCE IN THE THREAT FOR
TIDAL FLOODING REMAINS HIGH. STRONG ONSHORE FLOW THAT IS
PROJECTED TO LAST FOR SEVERAL DAYS WILL RESULT IN WATER PILING
UP ACROSS TIDAL TRIBUTARIES AND WITHIN BACK BAYS OF COASTAL
COMMUNITIES. TIDAL LEVELS WILL ALSO BE ENHANCED WITH
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES INCREASING WITH THE UPCOMING FULL MOON ON
SATURDAY. THIS COMBINATION OF FACTORS WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD
TIDAL FLOODING, SOME OF WHICH IS EXPECTED TO GET TO THE MODERATE
STAGE. WHILE NOT CURRENTLY FORECAST, THE THREAT FOR MAJOR
FLOODING IS NOT OFF THE TABLE, ESPECIALLY GETTING NEAR THE FULL
MOON. TIDAL GUIDANCE DIVERGES GREATLY BEYOND THURSDAY NIGHT AT
NEARLY ALL OF OUR FORECAST POINTS. SOME GUIDANCE HAS MODERATE TO
EVEN MAJOR FLOODING FOR THE WEEKEND WHILE SOME BARELY HAS TIDE
LEVELS GETTING INTO MINOR FLOOD STAGE. IT ALL WILL DEPEND ON THE
TRACK OF THE COASTAL STORM.
MOST AREAS WITHIN THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY SAW WIDESPREAD
MINOR FLOODING ON TUESDAY, ESPECIALLY BACK BAY COMMUNITIES. THE
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. THE COASTAL FLOOD WARNINGS AND
ADVISORIES FOR DELAWARE AND SALEM COUNTY ARE ALREADY IN EFFECT.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES GO INTO EFFECT THIS
AFTERNOON FOR THE NJ ATLANTIC COASTLINE. THESE WERE EXTENDED IN
TIME TO COVER THE HIGH TIDES THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. WHILE THE
EXACT SEVERITY OF THE COASTAL FLOODING ON FRIDAY REMAINS LESS
CERTAIN, TIDAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
TIME, AND IMPACTS COULD REACH THEIR GREATEST EXTENT ON FRIDAY
DEPENDING ON HOW THE STORM EVOLVES. TIDAL FLOODING MAY CONTINUE
THROUGH SATURDAY AS WELL, BUT CONFIDENCE IS MUCH LOWER BY
SATURDAY AT THIS TIME AND IMPACTS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE
LESSENING BY THEN.
FOR THE TIDAL DELAWARE RIVER, TIDE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH
WIDESPREAD MINOR TODAY AND THURSDAY. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES
REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE TIDAL DELAWARE RIVER THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT'S HIGH TIDE. AS WITH THE AREAS MENTIONED ABOVE,
WIDESPREAD MINOR TIDAL FLOODING MAY CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AND
INTO THE WEEKEND.
USUALLY, STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS DO NOT RESULT IN TIDAL FLOODING
ALONG THE UPPER EASTERN SHORE OF MARYLAND. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE
DURATION OF SURGE IN THE LOWER/SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAY WITH
WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO MAJOR FLOODING FORECAST THERE, IT IS
BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY THAT PORTIONS OF OUR EASTERN SHORE
COUNTIES WILL EXPERIENCE SOME MINOR TIDAL FLOODING TOWARD THE
END OF THE WEEK. OUR LATEST FORECAST INCLUDES CLAIBORNE REACHING
MINOR FLOOD STAGE FOR 4 CONSECUTIVE HIGH TIDES BEGINNING WITH
TONIGHT'S HIGH TIDE. THUS, A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY WAS ISSUED
FOR QUEEN ANNE'S TALBOT, AND CAROLINE COUNTIES. OUR LATEST
FORECAST HAS ALSO INCREASED SLIGHTLY FOR TOLCHESTER BEACH, AND
AND EXPANSION TO KENT (MD) COUNTY MAY BE CONSIDERED IN A FUTURE
UPDATE DEPENDING ON HOW SURGE VALUES TREND. BY FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY, WINDS SHIFTING MORE NORTHERLY SHOULD HELP THE BAY TO
BEGIN DRAINING SOME.
KEY MESSAGE 4...DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS AND HIGH SURF ARE
EXPECTED AT THE JERSEY SHORE AND DELAWARE BEACHES THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION IS ALSO LIKELY.
BREACHING OF SAND DUNES IS POSSIBLE.
A COASTAL STORM DEVELOPING OFFSHORE WILL RESULT IN HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST. THE SURFACE LOW WILL LINGER OFF OUR
COAST FOR MULTIPLE DAYS, BRINGING STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS AND
HIGH SEAS FOR OUR MARINE ZONES. BREAKING WAVES WITHIN THE SURF
ZONE OF 6 TO 12 FEET ARE EXPECTED BEGINNING TODAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS WILL ACCOMPANY THE HIGH SURF,
MAKING IT EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TO ENTER THE WATER AT ANY TIME
THIS WEEK AND INTO SATURDAY. THE HIGH SURF AND STRONG WINDS
COULD ALSO RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION AND BREACHING OF
SAND DUNES FOR THE JERSEY SHORE AND DELAWARE BEACHES.
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE RIP CURRENT AND HIGH SURF FORECAST,
THE HIGH RISK FOR LIFE THREATENING RIP CURRENTS IS NOW IN
EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY FOR ALL BEACHES. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL BEACHES AS WELL, WHICH WAS EXTENDED IN
TIME THROUGH SATURDAY, WHEN BREAKING WAVES WITHIN THE SURF ZONE
WILL BE AROUND 6-12 FEET.
AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
THROUGH 12Z...VFR EXCEPT FOR MIV AND ACY, AS THESE SITES ARE
LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE MVFR CIGS. LIGHT RAIN LINGERING SOUTH OF
PHL, THOUGH THESE WILL NOT CAUSE VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS.
NORTHEAST WINDS 10-15 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20-25 KTS. HIGH
CONFIDENCE.
TODAY...MVFR CEILING POSSIBLE AT MIV AND ACY THROUGH 14Z,
THOUGH CURRENTLY FORECASTING IMPROVEMENT TO VFR PRIOR TO 12Z.
VFR CEILINGS ELSEWHERE. NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASING 15-20 KTS
WITH GUSTS 25-30 KTS. GUSTS UP TO 35 KTS POSSIBLE AT ACY AND
NEAR OTHER COASTAL AREAS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
TONIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL, THOUGH CEILINGS
MAY LOWER TO NEAR MVFR AT MIV/ACY LATE. NORTHEAST WINDS 10-15
KTS WITH GUSTS 20-25 KTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN PREVAILING
CONDITIONS.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED, BUT LOW CLOUDS COULD LEAD TO RESTRICTIONS AT TIMES.
GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH, BUT
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES IN LOW CLOUDS AND RAIN. GUSTY
NORTH WINDS.
MARINE
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS SPREADING
ACROSS ALL COASTAL WATERS TODAY, INCLUDING DELAWARE BAY. GALE
FORCE WINDS/GUSTS ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY,
PEAKING AROUND 25-35 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 KTS POSSIBLE.
DANGEROUS SEAS BUILDING 8-15 FEET. WINDS WILL LESSEN FOR UPPER
DELAWARE BAY ON THURSDAY THOUGH. GALE WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT.
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES FROM SEA
SPRAY.
OUTLOOK...
GALE FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
ACROSS ALL COASTAL AND OFFSHORE WATERS, AND POTENTIALLY DELAWARE
BAY (LOWER CONFIDENCE). THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR STORM FORCE WIND
GUSTS UP TO 50 KTS FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY, AND STORM WATCH WAS ISSUED TO HIGHLIGHT THIS
THREAT. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH BEYOND THURSDAY NIGHT DUE TO
THE UNCERTAINTY IN HOW THE STORM OFFSHORE WILL EVOLVE.
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES IN RAIN AND
SEA SPRAY FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
RIP CURRENTS...SEE KEY MESSAGE 4.
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EDT
FRIDAY FOR PAZ070-071-106.
NJ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR NJZ016.
HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR NJZ014-
024>026.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR NJZ024>026.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR NJZ014-024>026.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM EDT
SATURDAY FOR NJZ012>014-021.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR NJZ014.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EDT
FRIDAY FOR NJZ017>019.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM EDT
SATURDAY FOR NJZ020-022>027.
DE...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR DEZ001.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR DEZ002>004.
HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR DEZ004.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR DEZ004.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR DEZ004.
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 2 AM THURSDAY TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY
FOR MDZ015-019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
ANZ430.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ430.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ431.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ480>483-485.
STORM WATCH FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON
FOR ANZ480>483-485.
DISCUSSION...AKL/COOPER/HOEFLICH/STAARMANN
AVIATION...STAARMANN
MARINE...STAARMANN
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