277
FXUS61 KPHI 241044
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
644 AM EDT FRI JUL 24 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED THE AVIATION SECTION FOR THE 12Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE FOR THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN AND SOME STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN
AND SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.
AS A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE EXPANDS INTO THE PLAINS EARLY NEXT
WEEK, NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL OCCUR ACROSS MUCH OF THE EAST.
THIS RIDGE GETS PUSHED BACK SOME AS A POTENTIALLY STRONG UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH IN EASTERN CANADA SENDS SPOKES OF ENERGY SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST. THIS WILL INITIALLY ALLOW FOR THE
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO BECOME MORE CARVED OUT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST BY
LATER THIS WEEKEND. SOME GUIDANCE MAINTAINS A RATHER VIGOROUS
SHORTWAVE SLIDING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY AND
THEN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST DURING TUESDAY. THIS RESULTS IN SOME MODEL
SOLUTIONS CLOSING OFF THE TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. SOME OTHER GUIDANCE IS SLOWER AND THUS SHARPENS OR CLOSES
OFF THE TROUGH A DAY OR TWO LATER. THE UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM WILL DRIVE
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT OUR WAY TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. SOME CONVECTION FROM UPSTREAM MAY TRY AND GET INTO PARTS
OF OUR AREA LATER SUNDAY, HOWEVER WHILE WEAKENING THERE MAY BE JUST
ENOUGH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STILL OVER OUR AREA WITH DRY ENOUGH AIR
TO PROTECT OUR AREA. THIS WILL CHANGE THOUGH AS WE GO THROUGH NEXT
WEEK.
IT LOOKS LIKE WE TURN CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
WHILE THERE REMAINS SOME DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODEL GUIDANCE ON THE
TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE FEATURES DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD EARLY NEXT
WEEK, THE SETUP WOULD TEND TO FAVOR UPSTREAM CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
GIVEN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS WOULD BE ENHANCED IF THE TROUGH
ALOFT CLOSES OFF. DEEPER MOISTURE (DEW POINTS INTO THE LOW 70S)
ADVECTING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WITH EVENTUAL COOLING
ALOFT AND STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT MAY RESULT IN WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS. DEPENDING ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS
SYSTEM, SOME AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE. THE INTENSITY AND COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS THOUGH MAY
ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON THE PRIOR DAYS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND THEN
ITS EVOLUTION DOWNSTREAM.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
TODAY...VFR WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
BECOMING NORTHEAST 5 KNOTS, THEN BECOMING EAST TO SOUTHEAST 8-12
KNOTS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
TONIGHT...VFR. SOUTHEAST OR EAST WINDS 4-8 KNOTS BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TO CALM. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...VFR.
MONDAY...SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND AT
NIGHT WITH SOME TIMES OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.
TUESDAY...TIMES OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WITH SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
MARINE
THE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA THROUGH TONIGHT AS ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
TUESDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
INCREASES.
RIP CURRENTS...
FOR TODAY, NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 10-20 MPH WITH WAVES IN THE SURF
ZONE 2-3 FEET. THERE WILL BE MULTIPLE SWELL GROUPS INCLUDING A
LONGER PERIOD SWELL FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT 9 SECONDS. DUE TO THE
ONSHORE FLOW AND MULTIPLE SWELL GROUPS WE WILL MAINTAIN THE MODERATE
RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS AT THE JERSEY
SHORE AND DELAWARE BEACHES.
FOR SATURDAY, NORTHEAST WINDS 10-20 MPH WITH BREAKING WAVES ONCE
AGAIN 2 TO 3 FEET WITH MULTIPLE SWELL GROUPS. FOR THESE REASONS, WE
WILL CONTINUE WITH A MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF DANGEROUS
RIP CURRENTS AT ALL BEACHES. FOR SPECIFIC BEACH FORECASTS,
VISIT WEATHER.GOV/BEACH/PHI
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...GORSE
AVIATION...GORSE
MARINE...FITZSIMMONS/GORSE
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