841
FXUS61 KPHI 210234
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
934 PM EST THU FEB 20 2020
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, WITH THE CENTER OF THE
HIGH FINALLY PASSING OFF THE CAROLINA COAST ON SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE
IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS FROM THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON
MONDAY TO THE NORTHEASTERN STATES ON TUESDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE MAY TRAIL BEHIND THIS LOW AND IMPACT THE AREA TOWARDS THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THE LATE EVENING UPDATE. LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST HAS ALREADY MADE
FURTHER PROGRESS OFF SHORE. THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW IS JUST CLIPPING
SOUTHEASTERN SUSSEX COUNTY DE. HOWEVER, ANY LIGHT RAIN OR LIGHT
SNOW THAT FALLS THERE SHOULD BE INCONSEQUENTIAL, AND WITH THE
LOW SHIFTING EVEN FURTHER OFF SHORE, THE EDGE OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD,
BRINGING AN END TO EVEN LIGHT PRECIPITATION WITHIN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS.
CLEARING IS FORECAST TO BEGIN WORKING ITS WAY OVER OUR REGION FROM
THE NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT.
A NORTH WIND AROUND 10 MPH IS EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD FALL INTO THE TEENS AT MOST LOCATIONS IN OUR REGION.
SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/
THE AXIS OF A MID LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST SHOULD
PASS OVERHEAD EARLY ON FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
TO BUILD FROM THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY TOWARD THE EAST COAST.
WE ARE EXPECTING ABUNDANT SUNSHINE FOR FRIDAY ALONG WITH A NORTH TO
NORTHWEST WIND 5 TO 10 MPH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD WITH AFTERNOON
READINGS MOSTLY IN THE 30S. THE FORECAST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE
ABOUT 8 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR FEBRUARY 21.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH EXPANSIVE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DRIFT
SOUTHEAST AND WEAKEN. AT THE UPPER LEVELS, THE FORECAST AREA WILL
REMAIN DISPLACED FROM BOTH THE SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN JET STREAMS
WHICH WILL FURTHER SUPPORT THE TRANQUIL WEATHER. CLEAR SKIES FRIDAY
NIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO SOME HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTH ON SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY. FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD DROP INTO THE TEENS AND 20S WITH THE
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. SATURDAY WILL WARM INTO THE 40S AND
LOWER 50S. SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN
FRIDAY NIGHT. SUNDAY'S HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S,
WHICH IS ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT OFFSHORE ON
MONDAY. AS A RESULT, SOME MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO THE REGION AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES. GUIDANCE HAS SLOWED A BIT WITH THE ARRIVAL
OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM (WITH SOME LINGERING DISCREPANCIES AMONG
INDIVIDUAL MODELS), DELAYING IT UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY. THE
THERMAL PROFILES DO NOT SUPPORT MUCH CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT WINTRY
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM, SO AT THE MOMENT, WE THINK THIS WILL
BE PRIMARILY A RAIN EVENT WITH THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR STEADY RAIN
BEING TUESDAY. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A SECONDARY SYSTEM
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK BUT DETAILS ARE LACKING AT THIS
TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE QUITE WARM ON MONDAY, TUESDAY, AND
WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 50S (WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR
60S ACROSS THE DELMARVA), BEFORE COOLING OFF A BIT ON THURSDAY
BEHIND THE SECONDARY SYSTEM.
AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
TONIGHT...VFR CEILINGS. DECREASING CLOUD COVER LATE TONIGHT.
NORTHWEST WIND 5 TO 10 KNOTS, BECOMING NORTH AROUND 10 KNOTS THIS
EVENING. GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT. HIGH
CONFIDENCE.
FRIDAY...VFR UNDER A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND 5 TO
10 KNOTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR. SOUTHWEST WIND 6 KNOTS OR LESS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
SATURDAY...VFR. WEST WIND AROUND 10 KNOTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR. SOUTHWEST TO WEST WIND 6 KNOTS OR LESS. HIGH
CONFIDENCE.
SUNDAY...VFR. SOUTHWEST WIND 5 TO 10 KNOTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR. SOUTHWEST WIND 6 KNOTS OR LESS, BECOMING SOUTH
TOWARD MORNING. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. SOUTH
WIND 5 TO 10 KNOTS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.
MONDAY NIGHT...MVFR LIKELY. A CHANCE OF RAIN. SOUTH WIND 5 TO 10
KNOTS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.
TUESDAY...MVFR AND IFR LIKELY IN RAIN. SOUTHEAST WIND 5 TO 10 KNOTS.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.
MARINE
A NORTH WIND 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS NEAR 30 KNOTS IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT, THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT. WIND SPEEDS ARE FORECAST TO
DIMINISH GRADUALLY ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
DUE TO THE GUSTY WINDS AND WATER TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 43 AND 45
F, THERE IS A CHANCE FOR LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SEAS GENERALLY RUNNING 2-3 FT AND GUSTS 20
KTS OR LESS.
MONDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH SEAS GENERALLY RUNNING 2-3
FT AND GUSTS 10 KTS OR LESS.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH SEAS
GENERALLY RUNNING 3-4 FT AND GUSTS 15 KTS OR LESS.
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ452>455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ430-431-450-
451.
SYNOPSIS...KRUZDLO
NEAR TERM...IOVINO/JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...KRUZDLO
AVIATION...IOVINO/KRUZDLO
MARINE...IOVINO/JOHNSON/KRUZDLO
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