662
FXUS61 KPHI 060906
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
506 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION FOR 12Z TAFS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EXTENDED FOR DELAWARE BAY THROUGH 5 PM
TODAY.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS CONTINUE TO TREND DOWN.
KEY MESSAGES
1. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES TODAY BRINGING SOME SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF THUNDER, THOUGH NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ARE
EXPECTED.
2. THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS UNSETTLED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH COOL TEMPERATURES LATE WEEK GIVING WAY TO A WARMING
TREND OVER THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...A COLD FRONT APPROACHES TODAY BRINGING SOME
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF THUNDER, THOUGH NO SIGNIFICANT
IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED.
A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY DRAPED OVER NORTH CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA EXTENDING DOWN TOWARDS WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA,
SLOWLY INCHING ITS WAY TOWARD OUR REGION. MORNING RADAR HAS SOME
SHOWERS OVER THE PITTSBURGH AREA, SLOWING MARCHING ACROSS THE
COMMONWEALTH.
SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO OUR AREA LATER THIS MORNING, SLOWLY
PUSHING THROUGH TOWARDS THE COAST AS THE DAY GOES ON. IT WON'T
BE THE NICEST EARLY MAY DAY BUT IT WON'T BE A TOTAL WASHOUT
EITHER, ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE I-95
CORRIDOR. AS THE FRONT COMES THROUGH THIS EVENING, THERE COULD
BE SOME ISOLATED LOW TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT,
MAINLY FOR SOUTH JERSEY AND DELMARVA, BUT NO SEVERE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED. THE FRONT SLOWLY SAGS SOUTH AND EAST, WITH SOME
SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT SOUTH/EAST OF I-95, BUT NOTHING
SIGNIFICANT EXPECTED. THE FRONT'S LOCATION LATE TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW CONTINUES TO TREND FURTHER EAST AND RAINFALL OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS CONTINUES TO DROP. CURRENT FORECAST OVER TODAY AND
TOMORROW HAS AROUND A TENTH TO HALF AN INCH OF RAIN.
KEY MESSAGE 2...THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS UNSETTLED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH COOL TEMPERATURES LATE WEEK GIVING WAY TO A
WARMING TREND OVER THE WEEKEND.
FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY,
ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG IT AS IT BRIEFLY
STALLS OUT FOR A TIME JUST TO OUR SOUTH. THIS COULD BRING SOME
ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN TO PORTIONS OF DELMARVA AND SOUTHERN NJ
THURSDAY MORNING HOWEVER THE OVERALL TREND HAS BEEN TO TRACK THIS
WAVE AND IT'S ASSOCIATED PRECIP A BIT FARTHER SOUTH. OTHERWISE, IT
WILL BE COOL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH HIGHS THURSDAY GENERALLY IN
THE 60S. HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN FOR FRIDAY BEFORE
ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF LOW PRESSURE COULD BRING SOME MORE RAIN TO THE
REGION FOR SATURDAY AND THEN AGAIN BY LATER SUNDAY. THESE APPEAR TO
BE NOTHING MORE THAN POTENTIAL WEEKEND SPOILERS WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
IMPACTS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY GENERALLY
LOOK TO BE IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S WITH HIGHS SUNDAY GENERALLY IN THE
70S TO NEAR 80.
AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS...
TODAY...VFR TO START BUT CONDITIONS DROP TO MVFR LATER THIS
MORNING AS SHOWERS AND LOW CLOUDS BEGIN TO MOVE THROUGH. DID ADD
A PERIOD OF IFR CIGS FOR KPNE, KTTN, KABE, AND KRDG, BUT CANNOT
RULE OUT IFR CIGS GETTING DOWN TO KPHL OR KILG. BRIEF PERIODS OF
MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE AT TIMES, THOUGH HAVE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN
LOWER VISIBILITIES FOR THE LEHIGH VALLEY TERMINALS. WINDS OUT OF
THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AROUND 10-15 KT AND GUSTS 20-25 KT. LOW
CONFIDENCE.
TONIGHT...WINDS SHIFT AND BECOME WEST/NORTHWESTERLY EARLY THIS
EVENING AS A COLD FRONT PASSES. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE AND HOVER AROUND 10 KT OR SO. WHILE SOME STRATUS
MAY HANG ON AS THE FRONT PASSES, WOULD EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR
BY 04Z-07Z. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
THURSDAY...VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR. NO SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER EXPECTED.
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...SUB VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT TIMES AS A
COUPLE SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH WITH SHOWERS AND THE RISK OF SOME
THUNDERSTORMS.
MARINE
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL MARINE ZONES THROUGH
TODAY. WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AROUND 15-20 KT WITH
GUSTS NEAR 25 KT ON DELAWARE BAY AND NEAR 30 KT OVER THE OPEN
OCEAN. SEAS OF 4 TO 7 FEET.
WINDS DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT
PASSES, AND BECOME NORTHWESTERLY AROUND 10-15 KT OVERNIGHT. THIS
WILL ALLOW THE SCA TO EXPIRE FOR DELAWARE BAY AT 5 PM TONIGHT,
BUT SEAS WITHIN THE OCEAN ZONES REMAIN IN THE 4 TO 6 FOOT RANGE.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES EXPECTED.
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
SATURDAY DURING THE DAY AND AGAIN FOR SUNDAY AS A PAIR OF SYSTEMS
MOVE THROUGH.
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ430-
431.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
DISCUSSION...FITZSIMMONS/HOEFLICH
AVIATION...FITZSIMMONS/HOEFLICH
MARINE...FITZSIMMONS/HOEFLICH
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