112  
FGUS71 KBOX 021200  
ESFBOX  
CTC003-013-015-MAC001-005-007-009-011-013-015-017-019-021-023-025-  
027-RIC001-003-005-007-009-041200-  
 
WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA  
800 AM EDT THU MAY 2 2019  
 
...THE SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL IS NORMAL FOR MOST OF SOUTHERN NEW  
ENGLAND..  
...THE SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL IS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE LOWER  
CONNECTICUT RIVER IN CONNECTICUT...  
 
THE SPRING FRESHWATER FLOOD POTENTIAL IS NORMAL ACROSS MOST OF  
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE EXCEPTION IS THE LOWER CONNECTICUT RIVER  
IN CT, WHERE THE MIDDLE HADDAM RIVER GAGE WAS STILL IN MINOR  
FLOOD.  
 
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND, ALL OF THE RIVER ICE HAS GONE AND THE  
ICE JAM SEASON HAS COME TO A CLOSE.  
 
THE FOLLOWING WEB SITE HAS A MAP DEPICTING THE FRESHWATER FLOOD  
POTENTIAL OUTLOOK...  
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/NERFC/SPRINGFLOODPOTENTIAL.  
 
THIS IS THE NINTH AND FINAL WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK OF  
THE 2019 SEASON. THIS OUTLOOK IS BASED ON CURRENT AND FORECAST  
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS. THIS INCLUDES SNOW COVER AND SNOW  
WATER EQUIVALENT, STREAM AND RIVER LEVELS AND THE AMOUNT OF ICE  
COVERAGE, RECENT PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURES, AND EXPECTED  
TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT TWO WEEKS.  
   
..RECENT PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURES
 
 
 
APRIL 2019 BROUGHT A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL TO SOUTHERN NEW  
ENGLAND. RAINFALL TOTALS RANGED FROM 6 TO 9.5 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF  
THE REGION. THIS WAS 2 TO 5 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL. TEMPERATURES FOR  
THE MONTH AVERAGED 1 TO 3 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.  
   
..SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS, RIVER AND GROUND WATER CONDITIONS
 
 
SOILS CONTINUED TO BE QUITE MOIST FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. RIVERS  
AND STREAMS WERE MOSTLY RUNNING ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL.  
GROUND WATER LEVELS RANGED FROM NORMAL TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL.  
   
..OBSERVED SNOW DEPTHS AND WATER EQUIVALENTS
 
 
 
THE GROUND WAS BARE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE SNOWPACK IN THE  
HEADWATERS OF THE CONNECTICUT AND MERRIMACK RIVERS WAS ALMOST  
COMPLETELY GONE.  
   
..TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK
 
 
SHOWERS TAPER OFF THIS MORNING, THEN CLOUDY AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE  
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. A WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO OUR REGION TONIGHT,  
BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS THAT LINGER INTO FRIDAY. RAINFALL  
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.  
 
LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION DURING FRIDAY NIGHT, BRINGING  
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. AROUND A QUARTER OF AN  
INCH OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED, THOUGH THERE COULD BE LOCALLY HIGHER  
AMOUNTS WITH THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS  
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS ANOTHER LOW PASSES SOUTH OF THE REGION, WITH  
UP TO AN INCH OF RAINFALL POSSIBLE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND  
MILDER CONDITIONS MONDAY. ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAY MOVE IN  
THROUGH MID WEEK.  
 
THE WEEK 2 OUTLOOK FROM THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER, FROM MAY 9-  
15, CALLS FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE NORMAL  
PRECIPITATION. SOME ENSEMBLE MODEL DATA INDICATES AT LEAST ANOTHER  
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EVENT DURING WEEK 2, BUT CURRENTLY THERE IS LOW  
CONFIDENCE ON DETAILS.  
   
..SUMMARY
 
 
THE SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL IS NEAR NORMAL ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHERN  
NEW ENGLAND, EXCEPT FOR ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE LOWER CONNECTICUT  
RIVER IN CT.  
 
AS OF THIS MORNING, THE RIVER FLOOD WARNING THAT HAD BEEN IN  
EFFECT FOR THE CONNECTICUT RIVER AT HARTFORD WAS DISCONTINUED.  
THE CONNECTICUT RIVER AT HARTFORD WAS IN MINOR FLOOD FOR ALMOST 16  
DAYS, FINALLY RECEDING BELOW FLOOD STAGE EARLY THIS MORNING. A  
RIVER FLOOD WARNING CONTINUED FOR THE CONNECTICUT RIVER AT MIDDLE  
HADDAM. THE MIDDLE HADDAM RIVER LEVEL IS EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW  
FLOOD STAGE LATER TODAY. THE MIDDLE HADDAM GAGE HAS ALSO BEEN IN  
MINOR FLOOD FOR 16 DAYS.  
 
ALTHOUGH SHOWERY WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT WEEK, THIS  
PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE FLOODING ON AREA RIVERS AND  
STREAMS. HOWEVER THESE EVENTS WILL SERVE TO KEEP RIVER LEVELS  
ELEVATED, OR SLOW THEIR GRADUAL DECLINE. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE THE LOWER  
CONNECTICUT RIVER. THIS RIVER WILL REMAIN VULNERABLE TO RENEWED  
FLOODING FOR ANOTHER WEEK OR SO, UNTIL THE RIVER HAS A CHANCE TO  
FURTHER RECEDE. WITH THE SNOW PACK OVER THE NH AND VT HEADWATERS  
ALMOST COMPLETELY GONE, THE OVERALL FLOOD POTENTIAL HAS DIMINISHED  
FOR THE LOWER CONNECTICUT RIVER.  
 
KEEP IN MIND THAT HEAVY RAIN CAN CAUSE FLOODING ANY TIME OF THE  
YEAR. THOSE WITH INTERESTS ALONG RIVERS AND STREAMS SHOULD CHECK THE  
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK, WHICH HIGHLIGHTS ANY POTENTIAL FLOOD  
EVENTS OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS. GO TO HTTPS://WEATHER.GOV/BOSTON AND  
CLICK ON THE OPTION CURRENT HAZARDS, THEN CLICK ON LOCAL OUTLOOK.  
 

 
 
FOR THE LATEST UPDATES, PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT  
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOSTON  
 
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WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBOSTON  
 
YOU CAN FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AT  
@NWSBOSTON  
 
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