743  
FGUS71 KBOX 071424  
ESFBOX  
CTC003-013-015-MAC001-005-007-009-011-013-015-017-019-021-023-025-  
027-RIC001-003-005-007-009-091430-  
 
WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA  
924 AM EST THU MAR 7 2019  
 
...WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW  
ENGLAND...  
 
THE WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL IS ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS SOUTHERN  
NEW ENGLAND. THE FLOOD THREAT FROM ICE JAMS IS BELOW NORMAL ALONG  
THE COASTAL PLAIN, AND NEAR NORMAL ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW  
ENGLAND.  
 
THE FOLLOWING WEB SITE HAS A MAP DEPICTING THE FRESHWATER FLOOD  
POTENTIAL OUTLOOK...  
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/NERFC/SPRINGFLOODPOTENTIAL.  
 
THIS IS THE FIFTH WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK OF THE 2019  
SEASON. THIS OUTLOOK IS BASED ON CURRENT AND FORECAST  
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS. THIS INCLUDES SNOW COVER AND SNOW  
WATER EQUIVALENT, STREAM AND RIVER LEVELS AND THE AMOUNT OF ICE  
COVERAGE, RECENT PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURES, AND EXPECTED  
TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT TWO WEEKS.  
   
..RECENT PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURES
 
 
 
LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION FROM FEBRUARY 20 TO MARCH 6 WAS 1 TO  
2 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WAS NOT  
FAR FROM NORMAL. HOWEVER, LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION WAS ABOVE  
NORMAL ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN MA, RI AND NORTHEAST CT, WHERE TOTALS  
WERE 2 TO 3 INCHES. ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SOUTH COASTLINE OF RI AND  
MA, AS WELL AS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS, LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION  
WAS THE HIGHEST- ABOVE 3 INCHES.  
 
THE HIGHER PRECIPITATION TOTALS ALONG SOUTH COASTAL NEW ENGLAND WERE  
MAINLY FROM RAINFALL. A SIGNIFICANT PORTION OF THE LIQUID EQUIVALENT  
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA FELL AS SNOWFALL.  
THIS RESULTED IN THE ESTABLISHMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT SNOWPACK.  
 
TEMPERATURES DURING THE PAST 2 WEEKS HAVE AVERAGED 2 TO 4 DEGREES  
BELOW NORMAL.  
   
..OBSERVED SNOW DEPTHS AND WATER EQUIVALENTS
 
 
 
SNOW PACK HAD BUILT UP CONSIDERABLY OVER THE PREVIOUS WEEK,  
ESPECIALLY DUE TO THE SNOWSTORM THAT OCCURRED DURING LATE SUNDAY  
INTO EARLY MONDAY.  
 
THE LOWEST SNOW COVER WAS OVER SOUTH COASTAL NEW ENGLAND STRETCHING  
FROM SOUTHERN RI EAST TO THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. IN THIS AREA, SNOW  
DEPTH RANGED FROM 0 TO A FEW INCHES. WATER CONTENT RANGED FROM 0 TO  
1.5 INCHES.  
 
THE SNOW DEPTH OVER NORTHERN CT, NORTHERN RI AND NORTHEAST MA RANGED  
FROM 6 TO 10 INCHES, WITH A WATER CONTENT OF 1 TO 2 INCHES.  
 
THE DEEPEST SNOW PACK EXTENDED FROM THE BOSTON AREA TO METRO WEST,  
AS WELL AS CENTRAL AND WESTERN MA. IN THESE AREAS, SNOW DEPTH RANGED  
FROM 8 TO 15 INCHES, WITH LOCALLY DEEPER SNOWPACK. WATER CONTENT  
RANGED FROM 1.5 TO 3.5 INCHES.  
 
FOR MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND, THIS SNOW PACK IS ABOVE NORMAL IN  
DEPTH AND IN WATER CONTENT FOR EARLY MARCH. THE EXCEPTION IS OVER  
NORTH CENTRAL MA AND THE EAST SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES, WHERE THIS  
SNOWPACK IS NORMAL OR EVEN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY MARCH.  
   
..RIVER AND ICE CONDITIONS
 
 
 
RIVERS AND STREAMS WERE RUNNING AT MAINLY NORMAL LEVELS FOR THIS  
TIME OF YEAR. A FEW WATERWAYS WERE RUNNING BELOW NORMAL.  
 
FROM FEBRUARY 20TH TO MARCH 5, TEMPERATURES AVERAGED 2 TO 4 DEGREES  
BELOW NORMAL. THESE COLDER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS LIKELY MAINTAINED  
RIVER ICE IN PLACE ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. ESTIMATED  
ICE THICKNESS IS 6 TO 9 INCHES. THUS IN THIS AREA, THE POTENTIAL FOR  
ICE JAMS IS NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. ACROSS EASTERN MA AND  
RI, SOME RIVER ICE LINGERS BUT IS LIKELY THINNER, UP TO A FEW INCHES  
THICK. THE ICE JAM POTENTIAL IS BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS AREA.  
   
..SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS
 
 
 
SOILS CONTINUED TO BE QUITE SATURATED FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, LOCKED  
UP IN FROZEN SOILS. THE FROST LAYER EXISTED TO A DEPTH OF 14 INCHES.  
   
..TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK
 
 
DRY AND COLDER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW  
DAYS. THEN THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A WINTRY MIX TO RAIN EVENT  
DURING LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGHS IN THE 40S  
AND UP TO AN INCH OF RAIN COULD RESULT IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE  
FLOODING. WHILE RIVER AND STREAM FLOODING IS LESS PROBABLE WITH  
THIS SYSTEM, THE RAIN AND SNOWMELT WILL GIVE AREA RIVERS AND  
STREAMS A BOOST. DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS FOLLOW FOR EARLY  
NEXT WEEK.  
 
THE WEEK 2 OUTLOOK FROM THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER, FROM MARCH 13  
TO 19, CALLS FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE NORMAL  
PRECIPITATION.  
   
..SUMMARY
 
 
THE WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL IS ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS SOUTHERN  
NEW ENGLAND. THE FLOOD THREAT FROM ICE JAMS IS BELOW NORMAL IN THE  
COASTAL PLAIN, AND CLOSER TO NORMAL ACROSS THE INTERIOR.  
 
RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE RUNNING MAINLY AT NEAR NORMAL LEVELS. SNOW  
PACK AND WATER CONTENT ARE ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY MARCH ACROSS MUCH  
OF THE REGION. IN ADDITION, SOILS ARE SATURATED AND ALSO FROZEN.  
 
OUR NEXT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SYSTEM AFFECTS OUR REGION LATE IN THE  
WEEKEND. THIS MIX TO RAIN EVENT, ACCOMPANIED BY SOME SNOWMELT, COULD  
RESULT IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING. WHILE RIVER FLOODING IS  
NOT ANTICIPATED, THE RAIN AND MELT WILL GIVE AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS  
A BOOST. DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS FOLLOW EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
 
THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF AN ORDERLY SNOWMELT. HOWEVER THE OUTLOOK  
FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION DURING  
MID MARCH INCREASES THE POSSIBILITY FOR FLOODING. HENCE THE WINTER  
AND SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL IS ABOVE NORMAL.  
 
THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING DUE TO ICE JAMS IS NEAR NORMAL ACROSS  
INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND, AND BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE COASTAL  
PLAIN.  
 
KEEP IN MIND THAT HEAVY RAIN CAN CAUSE FLOODING ANY TIME OF THE  
YEAR. THOSE WITH INTERESTS ALONG RIVERS AND STREAMS SHOULD CHECK  
THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK, WHICH HIGHLIGHTS ANY POTENTIAL  
FLOOD EVENTS OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS. GO TO  
HTTPS://WEATHER.GOV/BOSTON AND CLICK ON THE OPTION CURRENT  
HAZARDS, THEN CLICK ON LOCAL OUTLOOK.  
 
THE NEXT WINTER/SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED ON THURSDAY,  
MARCH 21.  
 

 
 
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