954  
FNUS71 KBOX 211231  
FWSBOX  
 
SPOT FORECAST FOR CAMP EDWARDS - RAN2E...MASSACHUSETTS ARMY NATIONAL GUARD  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA  
831 AM EDT TUE SEP 21 2021  
 
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0900 EDT ON SEPTEMBER 21.  
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER  
SERVICE.  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE SOUTH OF THE MARITIMES WILL YIELD DRY WEATHER AND  
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. THIS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FATHER OFFSHORE  
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, LEADING TO AN INCREASED RISK FOR SHOWERS  
AFTER MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY, MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF SOUTHERN  
NEW ENGLAND.  
 
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM 55 TO 70  
PERCENT TODAY, AND FROM 65 TO 90 PERCENT WEDNESDAY.  
   
REST OF TODAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (35-45 PERCENT).  
CWR.................0 PERCENT.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 73.  
MIN HUMIDITY........68 PERCENT.  
DEWPOINT............60.  
MAX APPARENT TEMP...71.  
SURFACE WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS 6 TO 8 MPH SHIFTING TO THE  
SOUTH AROUND 8 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.  
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 6 MPH SHIFTING TO THE  
SOUTH AROUND 8 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......1900-2900 FT AGL INCREASING TO 2900-4200 FT AGL  
EARLY, THEN DECREASING TO 1900 FT AGL LATE IN  
THE AFTERNOON.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 10 TO 16 MPH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR TO GOOD (17300-49000 KNOT-FT).  
LVORI...............3.  
ADI.................26 INCREASING TO 37, THEN INCREASING TO 54  
EARLY INCREASING TO 64 EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON  
DECREASING TO 54 DECREASING TO 40 LATE IN THE  
AFTERNOON.  
HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO LOW POTENTIAL FOR  
LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
CEILING (KFT).......10 DECREASING TO 9.0 EARLY, THEN DECREASING TO  
7.0 EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON INCREASING TO 8.0  
EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON INCREASING TO 9.0  
INCREASING TO 12 LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.  
 
TIME (EDT) 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM  
SKY (%).........43 44 44 43 41 39 38 39 42  
WEATHER COV.....  
WEATHER TYPE....  
TSTM COV........  
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0  
TEMP............62 66 67 69 69 71 71 70 69  
DEWPOINT........59 60 60 60 60 60 60 61 61  
RH..............90 81 78 73 73 68 68 73 76  
HEAT INDEX (F)..62 66 67 69 69 71 71 70 69  
20 FT WIND DIR..NE NE E SE SE S S S SE  
20 FT WIND SPD..6 6 8 8 8 8 8 8 8  
20 FT WIND GUST.13 13 13 13 13 14 14 14 14  
SURFACE WND DIR.NE NE E SE SE S S S SE  
SURFACE WND SPD.6 6 8 8 8 8 8 8 8  
SURFACE WND GST.13 13 13 13 13 14 14 14 14  
MIX HGT (KFT)...1.9 2.9 3.9 4.0 4.1 4.2 3.5 2.9 1.9  
TRANSP WIND DIR.SE SE SE S S S S S SE  
TRANSP WIND SPD.10 10 12 14 13 13 16 16 16  
LVORI...........4 3 3 3 3 1 1 3 3  
ADI.............26 37 54 66 62 63 56 51 40  
HAINES INDEX....4 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3  
VRATE KT-FT/100017 26 39 48 45 46 49 41 27  
CEILING (KFT)...12 10 9.0 7.0 8.0 8.0 9.0 12 13  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING  
MOSTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT).  
CWR.................0 PERCENT.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 64.  
MAX HUMIDITY........97 PERCENT.  
DEWPOINT............62.  
MAX APPARENT TEMP...69.  
SURFACE WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS 7 TO 8 MPH.  
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST WINDS 7 TO 8 MPH.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......800-1400 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 13 TO 18 MPH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO FAIR (9500-19400 KNOT-FT).  
LVORI...............5.  
ADI.................29 DECREASING TO 12.  
HAINES INDEX........2 TO 3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
CEILING (KFT).......9.0 DECREASING TO 8.0 EARLY IN THE EVENING,  
THEN INCREASING TO 10 EARLY DECREASING TO 8.0  
LATE IN THE EVENING INCREASING TO 9.0  
DECREASING TO 8.0 INCREASING TO 9.0 DECREASING  
TO 8.0 AFTER MIDNIGHT DECREASING TO 7.0  
DECREASING TO 6.0 EARLY IN THE MORNING.  
 
TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM  
SKY (%).........46 51 54 54 52 50 50 50 52 54 56 58  
WEATHER COV.....  
WEATHER TYPE....  
TSTM COV........  
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0  
TEMP............69 67 66 66 66 66 66 65 65 65 66 65  
DEWPOINT........61 62 62 62 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 64  
RH..............76 84 87 87 90 90 90 93 93 93 90 97  
HEAT INDEX (F)..69 67 66 66 66 66 66 65 65 65 66 65  
20 FT WIND DIR..SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE  
20 FT WIND SPD..8 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7  
20 FT WIND GUST.14 13 13 13 14 14 14 14 13 14 14 15  
SURFACE WND DIR.SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE  
SURFACE WND SPD.8 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7  
SURFACE WND GST.14 13 13 13 14 14 14 14 13 14 14 15  
MIX HGT (KFT)...1.4 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8  
TRANSP WIND DIR.SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE  
TRANSP WIND SPD.16 13 13 15 15 15 17 16 16 18 15 15  
LVORI...........3 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 5 5 5  
ADI.............29 8 8 10 10 10 15 14 11 16 13 13  
HAINES INDEX....3 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 3  
VRATE KT-FT/100019 10 10 10 10 11 12 11 11 13 10 11  
CEILING (KFT)...9.0 8.0 10 8.0 9.0 8.0 9.0 9.0 8.0 7.0 7.0 6.0  
   
WEDNESDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (55-65 PERCENT).  
CWR.................0 PERCENT.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 76.  
MIN HUMIDITY........71 PERCENT.  
DEWPOINT............65.  
MAX APPARENT TEMP...75.  
SURFACE WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 8 TO 13 MPH.  
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 8 TO 13 MPH.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......800-2300 FT AGL INCREASING TO 2100-3500 FT AGL  
EARLY.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 15 TO 21 MPH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO GOOD (10000-58900 KNOT-FT).  
LVORI...............4.  
ADI.................21 INCREASING TO 51.  
HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO LOW POTENTIAL FOR  
LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
CEILING (KFT).......5.0 INCREASING TO 6.0 IN THE MORNING, THEN  
DECREASING TO 5.0 EARLY INCREASING TO 6.0 EARLY  
IN THE AFTERNOON DECREASING TO 4.0 INCREASING  
TO 6.0 LATE IN THE AFTERNOON INCREASING TO 8.0  
INCREASING TO 9.0 LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.  
 
TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM  
SKY (%).........60 62 58 55 62 60  
WEATHER COV.....  
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE  
TSTM COV........  
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0  
TEMP............65 67 72 74 75 74  
DEWPOINT........64 64 65 65 65 65  
RH..............97 90 79 74 71 74  
HEAT INDEX (F)..65 67 72 74 75 74  
20 FT WIND......SE 8 SE 10 S 12 S 13 S 12 S 10  
20 FT WIND GUST.15 17 18 18 18 18  
SURFACE WIND....SE 8 SE 10 S 12 S 13 S 12 S 10  
SURFACE WND GST.15 17 18 18 18 18  
MIX HGT (FT)....800 1100 2300 3100 3500 2600  
TRANSPORT WIND..SE 15 SE 18 S 20 S 21 S 20 S 18  
LVORI...........5 4 3 3 3 3  
ADI.............16 25 41 50 50 54  
HAINES INDEX....3 3 4 4 4 4  
VRATE KT-FT/100010 18 39 56 59 41  
CEILING (KFT)...5.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 4.0 8.0  
 

 
FORECASTER...GAUCHER/NMB  
REQUESTED BY...JOEL CARLSON  
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED  
.TAG 2118549.0/BOX  
.DELDT 09/21/21  
.EMAIL JOELCARLSON@COMCAST.NET  
 
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