584  
FNUS71 KBOX 151102  
FWSBOX  
 
SPOT FORECAST FOR MCSF- NORTHEAST TRACT- SUB-UNIT ECHO...DCR FIRE  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA  
602 AM EST FRI JAN 15 2021  
 
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0600 EST ON JANUARY 15.  
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER  
SERVICE.  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
DRY WEATHER TODAY WITH LIGHT WINDS. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL  
CROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN FRIDAY  
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.  
 
MINIMUM RELATIVITY WILL BE AROUND 70 PERCENT TODAY.  
 
OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.  
 
DRY WEATHER ON SUNDAY BUT WINDS WILL BE GUSTY. DRY WEATHER WITH  
DIMINISHING WINDS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEFORE OUR NEXT SHOT AT  
SOME LIGHT SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY.  
   
TODAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT).  
CWR.................0 PERCENT.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 44.  
MIN HUMIDITY........70 PERCENT.  
DEWPOINT............34.  
MIN APPARENT TEMP...29.  
SURFACE WINDS.......EAST WINDS 7 TO 12 MPH.  
WIND (20 FT)........EAST WINDS 10 TO 14 MPH.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000-1800 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 13 TO 18 MPH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO FAIR (11100-24100 KNOT-FT).  
LVORI...............5.  
ADI.................8 INCREASING TO 25.  
HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO LOW POTENTIAL FOR  
LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
CEILING (KFT).......1.5 INCREASING TO 10.  
 
TIME (EST) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM  
SKY (%).........82 80 77 75 72 73 74 75 75 75 75 79  
WEATHER COV.....  
WEATHER TYPE....  
TSTM COV........  
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0  
TEMP............36 35 37 39 41 42 43 43 43 42 41 40  
DEWPOINT........34 34 34 35 35 35 34 34 34 34 34 34  
RH..............92 96 89 85 79 76 70 70 70 73 76 79  
HEAT INDEX (F)..30 29 31 33 35 36 37 37 37 36 34 33  
20 FT WIND DIR..NE NE NE NE NE NE NE E E E E E  
20 FT WIND SPD..7 7 8 8 9 9 10 10 10 12 12 12  
20 FT WIND GUST.13 13 13 13 13 14 14 14 15 16 17 18  
SURFACE WND DIR.NE NE NE NE NE NE NE E E E E E  
SURFACE WND SPD.7 7 8 8 9 9 10 10 10 12 12 12  
SURFACE WND GST.13 13 13 13 13 14 14 14 15 16 17 18  
MIX HGT (KFT)...1.0 1.1 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.5  
TRANSP WIND DIR.NE NE NE NE NE NE E E E E E E  
TRANSP WIND SPD.13 13 13 13 13 13 14 14 15 16 17 18  
LVORI...........6 5 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3  
ADI.............8 18 19 20 21 22 24 25 27 28 29 21  
HAINES INDEX....3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4  
VRATE KT-FT/100011 13 14 15 17 18 21 22 23 24 24 24  
CEILING (KFT)...1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10 10 11 12 11  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT,  
THEN RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY EARLY IN THE MORNING.  
CWR.................0 PERCENT INCREASING TO 90 PERCENT AFTER  
MIDNIGHT.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 40.  
MAX HUMIDITY........96 PERCENT.  
DEWPOINT............37 INCREASING TO 40 EARLY IN THE MORNING.  
MIN APPARENT TEMP...32.  
SURFACE WINDS.......BREEZY. EAST WINDS 12 TO 21 MPH INCREASING TO  
22 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 36 MPH EARLY  
IN THE MORNING.  
WIND (20 FT)........BREEZY. EAST WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH INCREASING TO  
22 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 38 MPH EARLY  
IN THE MORNING.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......300-1400 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 18 TO 25 MPH INCREASING TO 28 TO 33 MPH  
AFTER MIDNIGHT.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO FAIR (8400-22300 KNOT-FT).  
LVORI...............4.  
ADI.................22 INCREASING TO 29 EARLY IN THE MORNING.  
HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED  
FIRE GROWTH.  
CEILING (KFT).......10 DECREASING TO 9.0 IN THE EVENING, THEN  
DECREASING TO 7.0 DECREASING TO 4.5 DECREASING  
TO 2.5 INCREASING TO 3.0 EARLY IN THE MORNING  
DECREASING TO 2.5.  
 
TIME (EST) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM  
SKY (%).........83 87 87 88 89 87 86 85 89 92 96 97  
WEATHER COV..... SCH SCH CHC CHC LKY LKY  
WEATHER TYPE.... RW RW RW RW RW RW  
TSTM COV........  
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 90 90 90 90 90  
TEMP............40 40 40 40 40 40 41 41 41 42 42 42  
DEWPOINT........35 35 36 36 37 37 38 38 39 39 40 41  
RH..............82 82 85 85 89 89 89 89 92 89 93 96  
HEAT INDEX (F)..33 33 33 33 33 32 32 32 32 33 32 32  
20 FT WIND DIR..E E E E E E E E E E E E  
20 FT WIND SPD..12 12 12 13 13 15 17 18 21 22 24 25  
20 FT WIND GUST.18 20 20 21 21 23 26 29 31 33 36 36  
SURFACE WND DIR.E E E E E E E E E E E E  
SURFACE WND SPD.12 12 12 13 13 15 17 18 21 22 24 25  
SURFACE WND GST.18 20 20 21 21 23 26 29 31 33 36 36  
MIX HGT (KFT)...1.4 1.3 1.1 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3  
TRANSP WIND DIR.E E E E E E E E E E E E  
TRANSP WIND SPD.18 20 20 21 21 23 25 28 29 31 32 33  
LVORI...........3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4  
ADI.............21 18 18 19 19 21 23 25 26 28 29 30  
HAINES INDEX....3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3  
VRATE KT-FT/100022 22 19 18 15 15 14 13 12 11 9 8  
CEILING (KFT)...10 9.0 9.0 9.0 9.0 7.0 4.5 2.5 3.0 3.0 3.0 2.5  
 

 
FORECASTER...BRW  
REQUESTED BY...AARON WHIDDON  
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED  
.TAG 2100589.0/BOX  
.DELDT 01/15/21  
.EMAIL AARON.WHIDDON@MASS.GOV  
 
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