428  
FNUS71 KBOX 221003  
FWSBOX  
 
SPOT FORECAST FOR FREETOWN SF, CENTRAL TRACT- UNIT ECHO...DCR FIRE  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA  
603 AM EDT WED MAR 22 2023  
 
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0700 EDT ON MARCH 22.  
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER  
SERVICE.  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
 
DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS TODAY WITH NE TO START AROUND 5 MPH. WINDS  
WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE SE BY MID MORNING AND S DURING THE  
AFTERNOON AT THE FREETOWN SF LOCATION. SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOP  
THU WITH SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS 20-30 MPH DEVELOPING IN THE  
AFTERNOON.  
 
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TODAY WILL BE 35 TO 40 PERCENT AT  
FREETOWN SF. ON THURSDAY, MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE 70  
TO 80 PERCENT.  
   
OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
 
 
DRIER ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. ACTIVE WEATHER ON  
SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY WITH A WINTRY MIX ACROSS THE INTERIOR  
AND HIGHER TERRAIN, WHILE THERE IS A COLD RAIN ELSEWHERE. DRIER  
WEATHER RETURNS SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. UNSETTLED ONCE AGAIN  
LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.  
 
   
REST OF TODAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (50-60 PERCENT).  
CWR.................0 PERCENT.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 57.  
MIN HUMIDITY........35 TO 40 PERCENT.  
DEWPOINT............32.  
MIN APPARENT TEMP...33.  
SURFACE WINDS.......LIGHT WINDS BECOMING EAST 5 TO 6 MPH LATE IN  
THE MORNING, THEN SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH 6 TO 10  
MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.  
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING EAST 5 TO 6 MPH LATE IN  
THE MORNING, THEN SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH 6 TO 10  
MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......400-2000 FT AGL INCREASING TO 1600-3200 FT AGL  
IN THE AFTERNOON.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 8 TO 9 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST 12 TO  
14 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO GOOD (2500-32300 KNOT-FT).  
LVORI...............3.  
ADI.................11 INCREASING TO 34.  
HAINES INDEX........5 TO 6 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO HIGH POTENTIAL FOR  
LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
CEILING (KFT).......20 INCREASING TO 25 LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.  
 
TIME (EDT) 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM  
SKY (%).........59 60 56 53 49 53 56 60 58 55 53  
WEATHER COV.....  
WEATHER TYPE....  
TSTM COV........  
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0  
TEMP............36 38 42 46 51 54 56 57 57 56 54  
DEWPOINT........31 32 32 33 33 33 33 33 33 34 34  
RH..............82 79 67 60 50 45 42 40 40 43 46  
HEAT INDEX (F)..33 36 39 44 51 54 56 57 57 56 54  
20 FT WIND DIR..NE NE E E E SE SE SE S S S  
20 FT WIND SPD..3 3 5 5 6 6 7 7 9 10 10  
20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 13 10 8 7 8 9 10 12 13  
SURFACE WND DIR.NE NE E E E SE SE SE S S S  
SURFACE WND SPD.3 3 5 5 6 6 7 7 9 10 10  
SURFACE WND GST.10 10 13 10 8 7 8 9 10 12 13  
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.4 0.4 1.1 1.8 2.0 2.4 2.5 2.9 3.2 2.4 1.6  
TRANSP WIND DIR.NE E E E SE S S S S SW S  
TRANSP WIND SPD.8 8 9 8 8 7 7 9 12 13 14  
LVORI...........4 4 3 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 2  
ADI.............8 8 13 19 21 21 22 33 38 36 29  
HAINES INDEX....5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6  
VRATE KT-FT/10003 3 9 13 14 15 15 23 32 27 19  
CEILING (KFT)...20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 25  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF  
RAIN SHOWERS. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AROUND  
MIDNIGHT, THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS  
EARLY IN THE MORNING.  
CWR.................0 PERCENT INCREASING TO 33 PERCENT.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 43.  
MAX HUMIDITY........96 PERCENT.  
DEWPOINT............37 INCREASING TO 42 AROUND MIDNIGHT.  
MAX APPARENT TEMP...51.  
SURFACE WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 9 TO 10 MPH.  
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 9 TO 10 MPH.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......400-1200 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 12 TO 15 MPH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO FAIR (4500-15200 KNOT-FT).  
LVORI...............4.  
ADI.................12.  
HAINES INDEX........4 TO 6 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO HIGH POTENTIAL FOR  
LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
CEILING (KFT).......25 DECREASING TO 0.8.  
 
TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM  
SKY (%).........59 66 72 79 85 92 90 88 86 87 88 89  
WEATHER COV..... SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC SCH SCH  
WEATHER TYPE.... RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW  
TSTM COV........  
CWR.............0 0 10 10 10 10 10 10 30 30 30 30  
TEMP............51 48 46 46 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45  
DEWPOINT........35 35 36 37 39 40 41 42 43 43 44 44  
RH..............54 60 68 71 79 82 86 89 93 93 96 96  
HEAT INDEX (F)..51 43 41 41 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40  
20 FT WIND DIR..S S S S S S S S S S S S  
20 FT WIND SPD..10 10 10 9 10 10 10 10 9 9 9 9  
20 FT WIND GUST.14 12 12 14 14 16 16 15 14 14 13 14  
SURFACE WND DIR.S S S S S S S S S S S S  
SURFACE WND SPD.10 10 10 9 10 10 10 10 9 9 9 9  
SURFACE WND GST.14 12 12 14 14 16 16 15 14 14 13 14  
MIX HGT (KFT)...1.2 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5  
TRANSP WIND DIR.S S SW S S SW SW S SW S S S  
TRANSP WIND SPD.15 13 14 13 14 14 14 14 13 12 12 12  
LVORI...........2 2 3 3 4 4 4 5 5 5 6 6  
ADI.............13 11 12 11 12 12 12 12 11 10 10 10  
HAINES INDEX....6 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 4  
VRATE KT-FT/100015 6 6 5 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 5  
CEILING (KFT)...25 25 20 10 7.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 0.8  
   
THURSDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.  
CWR.................33 PERCENT DECREASING TO 6 PERCENT THROUGH  
EARLY AFTERNOON, THEN INCREASING TO 32 PERCENT  
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 56.  
MIN HUMIDITY........77 PERCENT.  
DEWPOINT............46 INCREASING TO 49 LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.  
MAX APPARENT TEMP...54.  
SURFACE WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 8 TO 15 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 28 MPH  
EARLY.  
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 8 TO 15 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 28 MPH  
EARLY.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......400-1800 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 12 TO 20 MPH INCREASING TO 22 TO 23  
MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO GOOD (4400-36900 KNOT-FT).  
LVORI...............5.  
ADI.................14 INCREASING TO 39.  
HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO LOW POTENTIAL FOR  
LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
CEILING (KFT).......0.8 INCREASING TO 2.0.  
 
TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM  
SKY (%).........90 92 88 88 93 93  
WEATHER COV.....CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE  
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR  
TSTM COV........  
CWR.............30 10 10 10 30 30  
TEMP............45 47 51 53 54 54  
DEWPOINT........44 45 46 47 47 48  
RH..............96 93 83 80 77 80  
HEAT INDEX (F)..40 43 51 53 54 54  
20 FT WIND......S 9 S 8 SW 10 SW 13 SW 15 SW 15  
20 FT WIND GUST.14 14 18 23 28 26  
SURFACE WIND....S 9 S 8 SW 10 SW 13 SW 15 SW 15  
SURFACE WND GST.14 14 18 23 28 26  
MIX HGT (FT)....400 500 1200 1600 1800 1600  
TRANSPORT WIND..S 12 S 14 SW 17 SW 20 SW 23 SW 22  
LVORI...........6 5 4 3 3 3  
ADI.............10 15 25 34 42 37  
HAINES INDEX....4 3 3 3 3 3  
VRATE KT-FT/10004 6 17 29 37 30  
CEILING (KFT)...0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 1.5 1.5  
 

 
FORECASTER...BL  
REQUESTED BY...AARON WHIDDON  
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED  
.TAG 2306896.0/BOX  
.DELDT 03/22/23  
.EMAIL AARON.WHIDDON@MASS.GOV  
 
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