819  
FNUS71 KBOX 190900  
FWSBOX  
 
SPOT FORECAST FOR FRANCES CRANE WMA RX FIRE...MASSWILDLIFE  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA  
500 AM EDT MON APR 19 2021  
 
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0600 EDT ON APRIL 19.  
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER  
SERVICE.  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
 
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS TODAY WITH JUST A VERY LOW RISK OF A SPOT  
SHOWER LATE IN THE DAY. LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS TODAY.  
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES MONDAY WILL BE 30 TO 40 PERCENT.  
 
OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...  
 
DRY WEATHER TUESDAY ALONG WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 30 MPH  
AND MINIMUM RH VALUES FROM 30 TO 40 PERCENT. THEN WIDESPREAD RAIN  
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY. DRY BUT WINDY AND  
COOL WEATHER FOR THURSDAY. DIMINISHING WINDS AND TURNING MILDER FRI  
AND SAT ALONG WITH DRY WEATHER. WET AND WINDY WEATHER MAY RETURN  
SUNDAY.  
   
TODAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (40-50 PERCENT).  
CWR.................0 PERCENT.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 62.  
MIN HUMIDITY........44 PERCENT.  
DEWPOINT............40.  
MIN APPARENT TEMP...36.  
SURFACE WINDS.......WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING  
BECOMING LIGHT, THEN BECOMING SOUTHWEST 5 TO 13  
MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.  
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING  
BECOMING LIGHT, THEN BECOMING SOUTHWEST 5 TO 13  
MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......100-2000 FT AGL INCREASING TO 1500-3000 FT AGL  
IN THE AFTERNOON, THEN DECREASING TO 800 FT AGL  
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 5 TO 13 MPH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO FAIR (700-24100 KNOT-FT).  
LVORI...............6.  
ADI.................7 INCREASING TO 18 EARLY, THEN INCREASING TO 27  
IN THE AFTERNOON DECREASING TO 10 LATE IN THE  
AFTERNOON.  
HAINES INDEX........5 MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED  
FIRE GROWTH.  
CEILING (KFT).......9.0 INCREASING TO 20.  
 
TIME (EDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM  
SKY (%).........67 64 55 46 37 26 30 34 37 42 46 50  
WEATHER COV.....  
WEATHER TYPE....  
TSTM COV........  
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0  
TEMP............39 40 43 49 53 56 58 60 61 62 62 61  
DEWPOINT........39 40 42 42 41 41 41 41 41 40 41 42  
RH..............100 100 96 77 64 57 53 49 48 44 46 49  
HEAT INDEX (F)..36 38 41 47 53 56 58 60 61 62 62 61  
20 FT WIND DIR..W W NW W W SW SW SW SW SW SW SW  
20 FT WIND SPD..5 3 3 5 5 6 7 8 9 10 12 13  
20 FT WIND GUST.7 7 6 8 12 14 14 15 15 16 17 18  
SURFACE WND DIR.W W NW W W SW SW SW SW SW SW SW  
SURFACE WND SPD.5 3 3 5 5 6 7 8 9 10 12 13  
SURFACE WND GST.7 7 6 8 12 14 14 15 15 16 17 18  
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.1 0.2 0.2 0.8 1.4 2.0 2.3 2.7 3.0 2.3 1.5 0.8  
TRANSP WIND DIR.W W W W W SW SW SW SW SW SW SW  
TRANSP WIND SPD.6 6 5 5 5 6 7 8 9 10 12 13  
LVORI...........9 9 8 4 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2  
ADI.............6 4 4 5 9 15 21 27 30 28 23 10  
HAINES INDEX....5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5  
VRATE KT-FT/10001 1 1 3 6 10 14 19 24 20 15 9  
CEILING (KFT)...9.0 12 15 15 15 15 15 20 20 20 20 20  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING  
PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40 PERCENT).  
CWR.................0 PERCENT.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 42.  
MAX HUMIDITY........100 PERCENT.  
DEWPOINT............42.  
MAX APPARENT TEMP...58.  
SURFACE WINDS.......WEST WINDS 5 TO 12 MPH UNTIL EARLY MORNING  
BECOMING LIGHT.  
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 5 TO 12 MPH UNTIL EARLY MORNING  
BECOMING LIGHT.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......0-600 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 3 TO 12 MPH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (100 KNOT-FT).  
LVORI...............6.  
ADI.................6.  
HAINES INDEX........4 TO 5 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR  
LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
CEILING (KFT).......20 DECREASING TO 13 EARLY IN THE EVENING, THEN  
DECREASING TO 10 LATE IN THE EVENING DECREASING  
TO 9.0 AFTER MIDNIGHT INCREASING TO 13  
INCREASING TO 20 EARLY IN THE MORNING.  
 
TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM  
SKY (%).........55 60 66 64 61 59 50 41 32 28 24 21  
WEATHER COV.....  
WEATHER TYPE....  
TSTM COV........  
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0  
TEMP............58 56 54 52 50 49 48 47 45 44 43 42  
DEWPOINT........41 41 42 42 42 42 42 43 43 43 42 42  
RH..............53 57 64 69 74 77 80 86 93 96 96 100  
HEAT INDEX (F)..58 56 54 52 47 46 45 44 43 42 41 42  
20 FT WIND DIR..SW SW SW SW SW SW W W W W W W  
20 FT WIND SPD..12 10 9 9 8 8 7 6 5 3 3 2  
20 FT WIND GUST.17 15 14 12 10 9 8 7 6 6 6 7  
SURFACE WND DIR.SW SW SW SW SW SW W W W W W W  
SURFACE WND SPD.12 10 9 9 8 8 7 6 5 3 3 2  
SURFACE WND GST.17 15 14 12 10 9 8 7 6 6 6 7  
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.6 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1  
TRANSP WIND DIR.SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW  
TRANSP WIND SPD.12 10 9 9 8 8 7 7 6 5 5 3  
LVORI...........2 2 3 3 3 4 4 5 6 8 8 10  
ADI.............9 9 8 8 7 7 5 5 3 2 2 2  
HAINES INDEX....5 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4  
VRATE KT-FT/10006 3 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0  
CEILING (KFT)...20 15 13 12 11 11 10 9.0 9.0 13 15 20  
   
TUESDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (20-30 PERCENT).  
CWR.................0 PERCENT.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 64.  
MIN HUMIDITY........48 PERCENT.  
DEWPOINT............43.  
MAX APPARENT TEMP...64.  
SURFACE WINDS.......LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST 17 TO 20 MPH.  
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST 17 TO 20 MPH.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......0-500 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 3 TO 9 MPH INCREASING TO 13 TO 20 MPH  
EARLY.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (100 KNOT-FT).  
LVORI...............6.  
ADI.................7 INCREASING TO 19 IN THE AFTERNOON.  
HAINES INDEX........4 LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE  
GROWTH.  
CEILING (KFT).......20 DECREASING TO 14 IN THE MORNING, THEN  
INCREASING TO 20 AROUND NOON DECREASING TO 14  
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON DECREASING TO 10  
DECREASING TO 6.0 LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.  
 
TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM  
SKY (%).........22 23 22 22 22 24  
WEATHER COV.....  
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE  
TSTM COV........  
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0  
TEMP............42 46 54 60 63 64  
DEWPOINT........42 43 45 45 45 44  
RH..............100 89 71 58 52 48  
HEAT INDEX (F)..42 45 54 60 63 64  
20 FT WIND......W 2 W 3 SW 9 SW 15 SW 20 SW 18  
20 FT WIND GUST.7 9 17 23 26 28  
SURFACE WIND....W 2 W 3 SW 9 SW 15 SW 20 SW 18  
SURFACE WND GST.7 9 17 23 26 28  
MIX HGT (FT)....BLW100 BLW100 300 400 500 300  
TRANSPORT WIND..SW 3 W 3 SW 9 SW 15 SW 20 SW 18  
LVORI...........9 6 3 2 2 2  
ADI.............4 4 7 16 21 20  
HAINES INDEX....4 4 4 4 4 4  
VRATE KT-FT/10000 0 2 5 8 4  
CEILING (KFT)...20 14 20 20 20 10  
 

 
FORECASTER...NOCERA  
REQUESTED BY...ALEX ENTRUP  
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED  
.TAG 2109476.0/BOX  
.DELDT 04/19/21  
.EMAIL ALEX.ENTRUP@MASS.GOV  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab MA Page
The Nexlab RI Page
The Nexlab NH Page
The Nexlab CT Page Main Text Page