560
FXUS61 KBOX 242328
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
728 PM EDT WED JUN 24 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. THE
AVIATION SECTION WAS UPDATED FOR THE 18Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY AND SEASONABLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND MUCH OF THE DAY
THURSDAY.
- WATCHING THE RISK FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON, SOME OF WHICH MAY BE SEVERE.
- A FEW SHOWERS SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY A WARMING AND DRYING TREND
INTO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...DRY AND SEASONABLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
MUCH OF THE DAY THURSDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION AS
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S WITH UPPER
70S ALONG THE COASTLINE. 18Z SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A NICE
FIELD OF CUMULUS POPPING UP ACROSS THE REGION. THIS DRIER
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW AS HIGH PRESSURE STALLS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS. LIGHT WEST-NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING, BEFORE TURNING MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY OVERNIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 2...WATCHING THE RISK FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON, SOME OF WHICH MAY BE SEVERE.
CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARRIVES THURSDAY AS A WARM FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION.
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE VALUES
GENERALLY <500 J/KG, SO NOT EXPECTING SEVERE WEATHER. BEST
CHANCE FOR ANY EMBEDDED THUNDER WILL BE ACROSS WESTERN MA.
SHOWERS LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING WITH LINGERING
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS PREVENTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF DESTABILIZATION
EARLY IN THE DAY. CONFIDENCE DECREASES FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH
GUIDANCE DIVIDED INTO TWO CAMPS WITH RESPECT TO THE CONVECTIVE
THREAT. THE GFS AND NAM SHOW A SCENARIO WITH QUICKER CLEARING
WITH SURFACE CAPE BUILDING >1000 J/KG BENEATH >40KTS OF
EFFECTIVE SHEAR. SHOULD HAVE AMPLE FORCING WITH A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE W LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON. OTHER GUIDANCE,
SHOWS SIGNIFICANTLY LESS DESTABILIZATION AND A LOWER CHANCE FOR
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION. THE NBM SHOWS A SOLID SIGNAL (35-50%)
CHANCE FOR CAPE VALUES >1000J BY 18Z FRIDAY FOR NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL MA AND CT. NOTABLY, THIS IS A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE FROM
THE 07Z RUN, LIKELY HINTING AT AN OVERALL SHIFT IN MODEL
CONSENSUS TOWARDS HIGHER INSTABILITY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGE 3...A FEW SHOWERS SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY A WARMING
AND DRYING TREND INTO NEXT WEEK.
GUIDANCE SHOWS ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING THE
REGION SATURDAY. THE CONSENSUS IS TO HAVE THIS FEATURE TRACK
WELL TO THE S OF THE REGION, THOUGH THE CHANCE REMAINS THAT SOME
SHOWERS COULD IMPACT THE SOUTH COAST HEADING INTO THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS. ASIDE FROM THIS, DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN
HEADING INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE ASSOCIATED
WITH AN AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. A WARMING TREND ALSO KICKS OFF FOR THE START OF THE
WORK WEEK, CONTINUING INTO MIDWEEK. HOWEVER, DETAILS ON JUST HOW
WARM IT MAY GET ARE STILL UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH -
GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
00Z TAF UPDATE...
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS 10 KTS, OR LESS. THERE IS A
POTENTIAL FOR A LOCALIZED SEA BREEZE TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON. CAN'T RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM AFTER 00Z THURSDAY NIGHT.
KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FRIDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. BREEZY. CHANCE
SHRA, SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: VFR. CHANCE SHRA.
SATURDAY: VFR. CHANCE SHRA, SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY: VFR.
MARINE
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH -
GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON, BEFORE BECOMING A LITTLE BREEZY (GUSTS POSSIBLE UP TO
20 KT) THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN 2 TO 4 FT WITH
THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME 5 FOOTERS REACHING THE SOUTHERN OUTER
WATERS, BUT NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD, OR PROLONGED. THERE
IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY EVENING INTO
FRIDAY.
OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FRIDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. CHANCE OF
RAIN SHOWERS.
SATURDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS.
SUNDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS LOCALLY APPROACHING 5 FT.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT.
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...FT/GUEST
AVIATION...FRANK/RM/GUEST
MARINE...GUEST
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