639
FXUS61 KBOX 010600
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
200 AM EDT SAT NOV 1 2025
SYNOPSIS
STRONG WEST WINDS PEAK THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT BEHIND LOW
PRESSURE. DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. GRADUAL WARMING TREND IN TEMPERATURES FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
KEY MESSAGES
* STRONG, GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT.
* GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH, LOCALLY UP TO 50 MPH ALONG FOR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND COASTAL AREAS ESPECIALLY THE CAPE/ISLANDS.
DETAILS...
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS THAT LOW PRESSURE HAS DEEPENED TO ~978MB
OVER FAR NORTHERN NH AS IT CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY TO THE
NORTHEAST. RAPID PRESSURE RISES ON THE ORDER OF 1-2 MB/2HR
BEHIND THE SYSTEM ARE HELPING TO DRIVE INCREASING WINDS ON THE
ORDER OF 25-35 MPH AROUND THE REGION. VISIBLE SATELLITE DEPICTS
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW BEHIND LOW PRESSURE THAT IS ADVECTING IN
ENOUGH MOISTURE AND COOL AIR FOR A LAYER OF STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDS.
THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE REST OF THE DAY WILL BE THE GUSTY TO STRONG
WESTERLY WINDS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS WE EXPECT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO CONTINUE
STRENGTHENING AS RAPID PRESSURE RISES CONTINUE. A 50-60 KT LLJ
SHIFTS ACROSS THE REGION AND WITH CAA THERE SHOULD BE SUPPORT FOR
EFFICIENT MIXING OF THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT TO THE SURFACE. WINDS
WILL TREND UPWARD THROUGH THE EVENING, CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. MODEL
SOUNDINGS REFLECT THIS POTENTIAL SHOWING A MIXING LAYER UP TO AROUND
800-850MB WHICH COULD MEAN THAT IF IT DID END UP MIXING CLOSER TO
850MB, 50KT+ GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE IN THAT SCENARIO. DEVELOPING CLOUD
COVER MAY CAP SOME OF THE HIGHEST GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE THEY
GRADUALLY MIX OUT TOWARDS THE EVENING. OVERALL, MOST MODEL GUIDANCE
IS ON BOARD WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS AT LEAST UP TO 40 MPH
ACROSS MOST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON/PM. GREATEST CONFIDENCE IN
ACHIEVING ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS IS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN,
IMMEDIATE COAST, AND CAPE/ISLANDS. 12Z HREF GUIDANCE HIGHLIGHTS
MEDUIM-HIGH PROBABILITIES FOR >45MPH GUSTS FOR THE BERKSHIRES, SPOTS
IN WORCESTER HILLS, AND CAPE/ISLANDS. ENSEMBLE MAXES SHOW GUSTS 50-
60 MPH IN THE BERKSHIRES, WORCESTER HILLS, AND CAPE/ISLANDS AND
NEARING 50 MPH FOR OTHER COASTAL AREAS.
ENSEMBLES STILL SHOW THAT THE HIGHEST WINDS WILL BE OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS THE CORE OF THE LLJ SWINGS THROUGH.
TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE 40S AND LOW 50S LATER THIS EVENING;
HOWEVER, WITH THE WIND FACTOR IT WILL FEEL MORE LIKE 30S AND LOW
40S. BUNDLE UP IF YOU PLAN ON BEING OUTDOORS (TRICK- OR-TREAT).
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
* GUSTY WINDS GRADUALLY TREND DOWNWARD THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY.
* LINGERING CLOUD COVER GIVES WAY TO SUNSHINE.
DETAILS...
PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO WANE SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE PULLS
AWAY FROM THE REGION. AS A RESULT, WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE
THROUGH THE DAY. IT WILL STILL BE GUSTY FOR MUCH OF THE DAY;
HOWEVER, CONSIDERABLY WEAKER THAN FRI-FRI NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTING INTO THE REGION WILL PROMOTE DRY CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LEAN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN
THE UPPER 40S FOR THE HIGH TERRAIN AND LOW TO MID 50S ELSEWHERE.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
* MORE SUNSHINE AND DRIER WITH LIGHT WINDS SUNDAY WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
* NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR NEXT WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND SUNNY CONDITIONS SUNDAY WITH
LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO SATURDAY
IN THE UPPER 40S FOR THE HIGH TERRAIN AND LOW TO MID 50S FOR THE
REMAINDER OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. A COLD FRONT SHOULD RACE
THROUGH NEW ENGLAND SOMETIME LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. SOME
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS FRONT, BUT SHOULD NOT AMOUNT TO
MUCH.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY, BEFORE ANOTHER PAIR OF
FRONTS APPROACHES OUR REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. DRY
WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL MUCH OF WEDNESDAY, WITH AN INCREASING RISK
FOR SHOWERS INTO THURSDAY MORNING AND DURING THE DAY.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
06Z TAF UPDATE:
THROUGH 12Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. PEAK OF THE WIND WILL BE THROUGH AROUND 07Z WITH 35-40 KT
GUSTS, 45-50 KT CAPE/ISLANDS AND HIGHER TERRAIN. WINDS GRADUALLY
LOWER A BIT TOWARD DAYBREAK.
SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. FEW BATCHES OF SCT-BKN DECKS 3500-5000 FT DEVELOP TOWARD
THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY W/WNW WINDS OF 25 TO 35 KNOTS AND UP TO 40
KNOTS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. WINDS SLOWLY TREND
DOWNWARD LATE AFTERNOON.
SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. WINDS CONTINUE TO TREND DOWNWARD, ESPECIALLY AFTER 00Z.
KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. STRONGEST W WINDS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 35 AND 45 KNOTS.
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. STRONGEST W WINDS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 35 AND 45 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT: VFR.
MONDAY: VFR. BREEZY. CHANCE SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. BREEZY.
SHRA LIKELY.
TUESDAY: VFR. WINDY WITH LOCAL GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. SLIGHT CHANCE
SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: VFR. WINDY WITH LOCAL GUSTS UP TO 30 KT.
WEDNESDAY: VFR. BREEZY.
MARINE
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MEDIUM - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY:
AN AREA OF LOW- PRESSURE EXITS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING.
STRONG WEST WINDS DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM
INCREASING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, PEAKING THIS EVENING/TONIGHT,
GRADUALLY TRENDING DOWNWARD ON SATURDAY.
EXPECT 25-35 KT SUSTAINED WINDS WITH GUSTS RANGING FROM 35-45
KNOTS WITH POTENTIAL FOR PEAK GUSTS UP TO 50 KTS THIS
EVENING/TONIGHT FOR THE OUTER WATERS. 7-11 FOOT SEAS OVER THE
OUTER MARINE WATERS THIS MORNING BUILD TO 11-16 FEET, HIGHEST
OVER THE OUTER SOUTH COASTAL WATERS THIS EVENING.
OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT.
MONDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. LOCAL ROUGH SEAS. RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY.
TUESDAY: STRONG WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 KT. AREAS OF ROUGH
SEAS. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW RISK FOR GALE FORCE WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO
40 KT. AREAS OF ROUGH SEAS.
WEDNESDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. AREAS OF SEAS APPROACHING
5 FT.
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR MAZ002>024-
026.
RI...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR RIZ001>008.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ230-236-251.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ231-233>235-
237.
STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR ANZ232-250-
254>256.
SYNOPSIS...FT
NEAR TERM...FT
SHORT TERM...FT
LONG TERM...JWD
AVIATION...MENSCH
MARINE...FT
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