805
FXUS61 KBOX 171115
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
715 AM EDT WED JUN 17 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WITH LESS THAN A FOOT OF STORM SURGE
COULD CAUSE MINOR COASTAL FLOODING FOR THE LATE EVENING HIGH
TIDE.
- MOSTLY DRY TODAY. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED POP-UP
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND.
- GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WITH SOME SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY. WATCHING THE SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL TOO, BUT RIGHT NOW THINKING MAIN THREAT WILL BE TO
OUR WEST AND SOUTH.
- BEAUTIFUL STRETCH OF WEATHER FRIDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND.
COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY THIS ENTIRE PERIOD.
- PERHAPS A PERIOD OF MUCH NEEDED RAIN TO KICK OFF THE START OF
THE NEXT WORK WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WITH LESS THAN A FOOT OF
STORM SURGE COULD CAUSE MINOR COASTAL FLOODING FOR THE LATE
EVENING HIGH TIDE.
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES CONTINUE TO VERY SLOWLY COME DOWN, LESSENING
THE COASTAL FLOODING/SPLASHOVER RISK WITH EACH DAY. NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO CONTINUE COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENTS AT THIS TIME.
THAT SAID, STILL HAVE CONCERNS FOR LOW LYING AREAS AROUND
BOSTON AND NANTUCKET WITH THE LATE EVENING HIGH TIDE.
KEY MESSAGE 2...MOSTLY DRY TODAY. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR
SCATTERED POP-UP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND.
EXPECTING ANOTHER MOSTLY DRY DAY TODAY. CONFIDENCE HAS WANED IN
SEEING SOME SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN MA AND CT THIS AFTERNOON, BUT
THERE REMAINS A SMALL PROBABILITY AS A LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO
THE GREAT LAKES AND UPSTATE NY TOWARDS THIS EVENING. SURFACE DEW
POINTS SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE 50S BY THIS EVENING, WHICH IS NOT
ESPECIALLY SUPPORTING OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE AIR IS JUST A
LITTLE TOO DRY. NOW THINKING THAT ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
TOO FAR SOUTHEAST TO BRING SHOWERS TO THE CAPE AND ISLANDS THIS
MORNING.
KEY MESSAGE 3...GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WITH SOME SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A FEW AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY. WATCHING THE
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL TOO, BUT RIGHT NOW THINKING MAIN
THREAT WILL BE TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH.
MORE ACTIVE WEATHER ANTICIPATED FOR THURSDAY. SOME DETAILS
REMAIN TO BE WORKED OUT. THINKING THE MOST SIGNIFICANT FEATURE
WILL BE A POTENT 40-60KT SW LOW LEVEL JET AT 925 MB. THIS COULD
INTERACT WITH A WARM FRONT IN THE MORNING TO GENERATE MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL.
ONE BIG QUESTION WILL BE IF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND CAN GET MORE
FULLY INTO THE WARM SECTOR OF A LOW PRESSURE. IF WE DO WIND UP
IN THE WARM SECTOR, THEN THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING GOES UP. CURRENT
THINKING IS THE SEVERE WEATHER WINDOW FOR OUR REGION IS NARROW.
SPC HAS OUR REGION WITHIN A LEVEL 2 OF 5 RISK, MAINLY DUE TO
THE THREAT OF GUSTY WINDS IF WE CAN GENERATE ENOUGH INSTABILITY
TO PAIR WITH THE POTENT LOW LEVEL JET. THIS WILL NEED TO BE
FINE-TUNED WITH LATER FORECASTS.
HAVE RATHER HIGH CONFIDENCE IN AT LEAST SOME LIGHT RAINFALL,
WHICH WE COULD USE GIVEN OUR RECENT DRY CONDITIONS.
KEY MESSAGE 4...BEAUTIFUL STRETCH OF WEATHER FRIDAY INTO THIS
WEEKEND. COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY THIS ENTIRE PERIOD.
TWO CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOWS JUST SOUTH OF HUDSONS BAY WILL
RESULT IN HEIGHT FIELDS LOWER THAN NORMAL FRIDAY INTO THIS
WEEKEND ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL SUPPRESS DEEPER MOISTURE
TO OUR SOUTH AND RESULT IN A BEAUTIFUL STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE BETWEEN 75 AND 85 WITH
COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL MAINLY BE
IN THE 50S TO THE LOWER 60S.
KEY MESSAGE 5...PERHAPS A PERIOD OF MUCH NEEDED RAIN TO KICK OFF
THE START OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK.
QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY FOR THE START OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK.
STILL SEEING SIGNS IN THE GUIDANCE FOR A LOW PRESSURE TO PERHAPS
PASS BY OUR REGION SOMETIME MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THIS COULD LEAD
TO SOME MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVERAGE
FOR AT LEAST SOME LIGHT RAINFALL, OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE
DETAILS IS BELOW NORMAL BEING SEVERAL DAYS INTO THE FUTURE.
AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR DESPITE MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS. WINDS BECOMING S AT 5-10 KNOTS
EXCEPT LOCALIZED SEA BREEZES DEVELOPING ALONG PORTIONS OF THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. A FEW AFTERNOON/EVENING SPOT SHOWERS POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE DISTANT INTERIOR. OTHERWISE, DRY WEATHER CONTINUES.
TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR DURING THE EVENING WITH SOME MVFR TO LOCALIZED IFR
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING TOWARD DAYBREAK ACROSS PARTS OF THE
INTERIOR AND AREAS NEAR THE SOUTH COAST. SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY
ALSO DEVELOP TOWARD MORNING WITH THE FOCUS ACROSS INTERIOR MA.
WINDS BECOMING SE AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS LATE.
THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
AREAS MVFR/IFR IN STRATUS TOWARDS THE BERKSHIRES AND SOUTH
COAST BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD DURING THE DAY. SHRA WITH A
RISK FOR -TSRA. GUSTY SW WINDS WITH LLWS ALSO POSSIBLE TOWARDS
THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.
KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS
AROUND 14Z AND CONTINUES THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
OUTLOOK /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: VFR. BREEZY.
SATURDAY: VFR. WINDY WITH LOCAL GUSTS UP TO 30 KT.
SATURDAY NIGHT: VFR. BREEZY.
SUNDAY: VFR. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.
MARINE
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
THROUGH THURSDAY: HIGH CONFIDENCE.
WINDS AND SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS
THROUGH TONIGHT. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED THURSDAY. MUCH
WILL DEPEND ON HOW WARM WE CAN GET. HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN AT
LEAST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS, WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE
FOR GALE FORCE GUSTS ACROSS SOME OF THE EASTERN COASTAL WATERS.
GALE WATCHES POSTED FOR THOSE WATERS INSTEAD.
OUTLOOK /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. ROUGH SEAS UP TO 8 FT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS.
JUNETEENTH: LOW RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH GUSTS
UP TO 25 KT. ROUGH SEAS UP TO 7 FT.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: LOW RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. SEAS UP TO 5 FT.
SATURDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS UP TO 5 FT.
SUNDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. AREAS OF SEAS APPROACHING 5 FT.
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
ANZ230-236-251.
GALE WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR
ANZ231-234.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THURSDAY TO 1 AM EDT FRIDAY
FOR ANZ232-233.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THURSDAY TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY
FOR ANZ235-237-255-256.
GALE WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR
ANZ250-280.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THURSDAY TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR
ANZ254.
DISCUSSION...BELK/FRANK
AVIATION...BELK/FT
MARINE...BELK/FRANK
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