092
FXUS61 KBOX 150004
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
704 PM EST SAT FEB 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES BUT TEMPERATURES TRENDING COOLER FOR
NEXT WEEK.
KEY MESSAGES
- COOLER TOMORROW WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS.
- SOME SNOW SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. MINOR ACCUMULATIONS WITH LITTLE TO NO IMPACTS
EXPECTED.
- MOSTLY SEASONABLE TEMPS TUE THROUGH SAT BUT BECOMING MORE
UNSETTLED FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. LOW
CONFIDENCE ON DETAILS AND TIMING.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...COOLER TOMORROW WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS.
A FRONT SLATED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT WILL AID IN
BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY AS WINDS SHIFT
MORE N AND E DURING THE DAY. 925 MB TEMPERATURES APPROACH
-10C HEADING INTO SUNDAY MORNING, AND GENERALLY SETTLE AROUND
-5C WITH HIGH PRESSURE. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE DAY AS
WELL. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 30S CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION, WITH SPOTS CLOSER TO THE COAST STAYING MOSTLY IN THE
LOWER 30S.
KEY MESSAGE 2...SOME SNOW SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING. MINOR ACCUMULATIONS WITH LITTLE TO NO
IMPACTS EXPECTED.
THE CHANCE FOR A SIGNIFICANT COASTAL STORM AT THE START OF THE
WEEK IS HIGHLY UNLIKELY. HOWEVER, A PERIOD OF SOME LIGHT SNOW
REMAINS POSSIBLE, PARTICULARLY TOWARDS THE SOUTH COAST. SOME
SHOWERS IN WESTERNMOST PARTS OF THE INTERIOR CANNOT BE RULED OUT
AS WELL.
GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TO TREND THE POSSIBLE COASTAL STORM
SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH
TRACKING THROUGH THE SOUTH CENTRAL US TODAY WILL CONTINUE EAST,
REACHING THE EAST COAST SUNDAY NIGHT. ITS SURFACE LOW WILL
TRACK OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY,
SHIFTING OUT TO SEA AND MOST LIKELY MISSING SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. A NORTHERN-STREAM SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES IS ALSO EXPECTED TO TRACK EAST AT ROUGHLY THE SAME TIME,
AND THIS NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY COULD PRODUCE MORE SNOW SHOWERS
IN THE INTERIOR. GUIDANCE STILL DOESN'T HAVE THIS FEATURE AND
THE SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE PHASING TOGETHER UNTIL LATER MONDAY WELL
OFFSHORE AND AWAY FROM SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WE MAY STILL SEE
IMPACTS FROM THE COASTAL STORM THOUGH, MOSTLY IN THE WAY OF
LIGHT SNOW ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. IN TERMS OF ACCUMULATIONS, NO
MORE THAN A TRACE TO A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH ARE EXPECTED. AND
WITH DAYTIME HIGHS MONDAY GETTING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S
(SOME SPOTS MAY REACH THE LOW 40S), THE LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS THAT
WE COULD PICK UP OVERNIGHT WILL LIKELY MELT AWAY DURING THE
DAY. ON THE HIGHER END (75TH PERCENTILE NBM 4.3), 1" TO AROUND
1.5" COULD FALL OVER THE ISLANDS, BUT ELSEWHERE, LESS THAN AN
INCH CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST. THE NBM 5.0 HAS
EVEN LOWER ACCUMULATIONS, WITH THE 75TH PERCENTILE ONLY GETTING
TO 0.5" ON THE ISLANDS WITH A FEW TENTHS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST
AND UP INTO THE INTERIOR. CONTINUED TO GO WITH "SLIGHT CHANCE"
POPS (15-25 PERCENT CHANCE) FOR MUCH OF THE REGION FOR LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS AND "CHANCE" (25-40 PERCENT CHANCE IN THIS
FORECAST) FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTH COAST AND ISLANDS.
KEY MESSAGE 3...MOSTLY SEASONABLE TEMPS TUE THROUGH SAT BUT
BECOMING MORE UNSETTLED FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. LOW CONFIDENCE ON DETAILS AND TIMING.
WE HAVE AN ACTIVE JET SETTING UP FROM THE MIDWEEK PERIOD INTO
NEXT WEEKEND AS PACIFIC ENERGY TRAVERSES THE CONUS WITH
MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH FROM THE GT LAKES INTO NEW
ENG. IT'S A CHAOTIC -NAO/-PNA PATTERN WITH LOW PREDICTABILITY
ON DETAILS AS SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL DEPEND ON THE TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF THESE SHORTWAVES AND HOW THEY INTERACT WITH EACH
OTHER AND WITH A PIECE OF THE TPV MOVING INTO THE MARITIMES. IT
WILL BECOME MORE UNSETTLED WITH MULTIPLE PERIODS OF PRECIP
POSSIBLE FROM THE MIDWEEK PERIOD INTO NEXT SATURDAY, BUT LOW
FORECAST CONFIDENCE ON TIMING AND DETAILS. WE WILL ALSO HAVE A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEARBY WITH COLD AIR TO THE NORTH AND MILDER
AIR TO THE SOUTH WHICH WILL PLAY HAVOK WITH TEMPS AND PTYPE.
THERE MAY BE PERIODS OF SNOW, RAIN AND/OR MIXED WINTRY PRECIP
AT TIMES.
ON TUE, HIGH PRES WILL BE MOVING OFFSHORE WITH WARM ADVECTION
DEVELOPING WTHIN SW FLOW AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT. EXPECT A LOT OF
CLOUD COVER IN THE MORNING AND CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW FLURRIES,
THEN PARTIAL SUNSHINE DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON. WARM FRONT
REMAINS TO THE SW AND BL FLOW IS LIGHT SO SIGNIFICANTLY MILDER
AIR WILL STAY WELL TO THE SOUTH AND WEST TUE WITH TEMPS NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL, MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.
THE BOUNDARY INITIALLY STALLS NEAR THE SOUTH COAST AROUND WED
BEFORE WAFFLING BACK TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH THROUGH THE WEEK.
WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES AND SURFACE WAVES RIDING ALONG THE
BOUNDARY, EXPECT PERIODS OF PRECIP ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE DRY
PERIODS AS WELL. THE LOCATION AND PLACEMENT OF THE BOUNDARY WILL
DETERMINE PTYPE AND TEMPS, BUT THERE IS A CHANCE FOR ONE OR 2
WINTRY EVENTS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
TEMPS WILL BE MOSTLY SEASONABLE WITH ANY MILD TEMPS SUPPRESSED
WELL TO THE SOUTH AND WEST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO
THE WEEKEND. PERIODS OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPS LIKELY WITH PRECIP
AND THE BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
00Z TAF UPDATE:
TONIGHT: HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. WINDS BECOME NW AROUND 5 KT OVERNIGHT.
SUNDAY: HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. NW TO N WINDS 5-10 KT, WINDS DECREASE IN AFTERNOON
POTENTIALLY BECOMING LIGHT/VARIABLE. MORE CONSISTENT MID-LEVEL
CLOUD DECKS MOVE IN AFTER 12Z FROM SW TO NE.
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH CONFIDENCE OVERALL, THOUGH MODERATE TO HIGH
FOR PVD, CAPE AND ISLANDS.
LOWERING MAINLY VFR CEILINGS. WINDS BECOME EASTERLY AT 5-10 KT
WITH DRY WEATHER FOR MOST TERMINALS. POSSIBLE MVFR CEILINGS PVD-
CAPE AIRPORTS WITH LIGHT SHSN POSSIBLE AFTER 08Z. VISBYS IN
SHSN COULD BRIEFLY BE AS LOW AS IFR, BUT THINK 3-6SM ARE MORE
LIKELY IN ANY SHOWERS.
KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
VFR. NW WINDS THIS MORNING TURNING AT 8-10 KTS. WINDS N BY THE
AFTERNOON POTENTIALLY WAVERING TOWARD NE/E LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT (AND POSSIBLY VRB AT TIMES).
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
VFR. LIGHT WINDS N/NNE LESS THAN 8 KTS.
OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WASHINGTONS BIRTHDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE.
BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE SN.
MONDAY NIGHT: VFR.
TUESDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE.
TUESDAY NIGHT: VFR.
WEDNESDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE RA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. RA LIKELY,
CHANCE SN.
THURSDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS IFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE RA.
MARINE
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
A COLD FRONT MOVING OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING
WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SLIGHTLY ELEVATED NW WINDS OVER THE
NORTHERN WATERS. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KT ARE A POSSIBILITY,
BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE VERY WIDESPREAD. SEAS 2-3 FT ARE
STILL EXPECTED WITH THE OUTERMOST AREAS OF THE NORTHERN WATERS
SEEING SOME POCKETS OF 4 FT SEAS AS THAT FRONT PUSHES THROUGH.
SOME LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY IS POSSIBLE FOR THE NORTHEASTERN
WATERS AS WELL. HIGH PRESSURE TAKES CONTROL ONCE MORE FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEKEND, KEEPING SEAS AND WINDS CALMER FOR SUNDAY.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.
SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAY IMPACT THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. SEAS SHOULD STILL REMAIN AROUND 2-3
FT AT LEAST THROUGH MUCH OF MONDAY, WITH WINDS BECOMING
SLIGHTLY GUSTIER AROUND 20 KT HEADING INTO MONDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WASHINGTONS BIRTHDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SNOW.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. LOCAL
ROUGH SEAS.
TUESDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS UP TO 5 FT.
WEDNESDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS UP TO 5 FT. CHANCE OF
RAIN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS UP TO 5 FT. RAIN
LIKELY.
THURSDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS UP TO 5 FT. CHANCE OF
RAIN.
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KJC/HRENCECIN
AVIATION...LOCONTO/MENSCH
MARINE...HRENCECIN
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