091
FXUS61 KBOX 261507
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
1107 AM EDT FRI APR 26 2024
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN STATES ALLOWS FOR DRY
WEATHER, CHILLY NIGHTS, AND COMFORTABLE AFTERNOONS THROUGH THE
FIRST-HALF OF THE WEEKEND. UNSETTLED PATTERN SETS UP FOR SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SHOWER CHANCES. TEMPERATURES TURN
MILDER FOR SOME BUT A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT LIKELY KEEPS THE
WARMEST AIR OVER WESTERN SNE MONDAY.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
1100 AM UPDATE:
ANOTHER STELLAR DAY TODAY WEATHERWISE AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES.
CONDITIONS HOULD AGAIN BE VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY, WITH
BLUEBIRD SKIES AND LOTS OF SUN, SEA- BREEZES NEAR THE COASTS,
ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES MILDER THAN YESTERDAY.
SEABREEZE ON THE EASTERN MA COAST ALREADY HAS DEVELOPED AND
SHOULD TAKE PLACE CLOSER TO EARLY/MIDAFTERNOON ALONG THE SOUTH
COAST OF RI/MA AND NARRANGASETT BAY. SEA BREEZES WILL ALSO KEEP
COASTAL AREAS COLDER WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID
30S, COMPARED TO QUITE LOW DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS
TO MID TEENS INLAND. TRIED TO BETTER SHOW THE TREND IN
DEWPOINTS BY BLENDING IN SOME THE WRF-ARW DEWPOINTS INTO THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST. BUT OVERALL ANOTHER PLEASANT DAY ON TAP.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
A QUIET AND SUNNY DAY AHEAD WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY
IN PLACE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. NEARLY A CARBON COPY
FORECAST FROM THURSDAY. AFTER STARTING WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
20S AND LOW 30S, TODAY WARMS INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S FOR
MOST, THOUGH COASTAL TOWNS REMAIN COOLER. WHY? AN ON SHORE WIND/
SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS BY MID-MORNING. HERE TEMPERATURES REACH THE
LOW 50S. WITH A SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM THE MEAN WIND
DIRECTION OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS TOUGH TO NAIL DOWN, DO THINK
WIND DIRECTION IS A BIT VARIABLE TODAY, THOUGH EASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS SEES AN EASTERLY WIND DUE TO THE SEA BREEZE.
SOUTHERN RHODE ISLAND AND SOUTH COAST OF MASSACHUSETTS SEAS MORE
OF A SOUTHERLY WIND, ONCE AGAIN DUE TO THE SEA BREEZE.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/
COPY & PASTE: YET ANOTHER DRY, CLEAR, AND COLD NIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. THAT SAID, DO NOT THINK TEMPERATURES DIP AS LOW AS IT
HAS DONE THE PAST TWO NIGHTS. GIVEN REPETITIVENESS OF THE FORECAST,
LEANED ON THE BIASED-CORRECT CONSMOS AND MADE MANUAL ADJUSTMENTS TO
OUR PRONE LOCATIONS THAT RADIATE ON CLEAR AND CALM NIGHTS. OVERALL,
WIDESPREAD LOWS IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 30S FOR THE COASTAL PLAIN
AND UPPER 20S AND LOW 30S ACROSS THE INTERIOR. WHERE WE COULD SEE
TEMPERATURES DROP LOWER, OUR KNOWN RADIATORS; I-495 CORRIDOR,
HALLOWS OF EASTERN CT, AND MARTHA'S VINEYARD - HERE TEMPERATURES MAY
DROP BETWEEN 28F AND 32F. GIVEN THE LIMITED AREA, WILL HOLD OFF THIS
MORNING ON ISSUING A FREEZE WATCH. THIS SITUATION MIGHT BE BETTER
HANDLED WITH A FROST ADVISORY, BUT WILL LEAVE THAT UP TO THE DAY
CREW AFTER REVIEWING THE LATEST DATA. AS FOR SATURDAY, A SUNNY AND
COMFORTABLE ONE WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED SOUTH OF BLOCK
ISLAND. LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO
CLIMB INTO THE LOW AND MIDDLE 60S AWAY FROM THE COAST. AT THE COAST,
A SEA BREEZE LIKELY TO DEVELOP GIVEN PERSISTENT PATTERN, HIGHS WILL
ONLY REACH THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 50S. BY LATE AFTERNOON A MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST WITH A SURFACE WARM FRONT. DAY
LIGHT HOURS REMAIN DRY, THOUGH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS BEGIN TO MOVE IN
FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
KEY POINTS...
* SCATTERED SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT BECOME MORE HIT-AND-MISS SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY; MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES THROUGH MID WEEK WITH
POTENTIAL FOR A THUNDERSTORM.
* WARMING TREND THROUGH NEXT WEEK BUT A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT LIKELY
KEEPS WARMEST AIR CONFINED TO WESTERN SNE.
DETAILS...
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...
A PASSING WARM FRONT AND WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL LEAD TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY NIGHT. LACK
OF STRONG FORCING WILL LIMIT RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO
A FEW TENTHS FOCUSED OVER WESTERN MA/CT WITH LESSER AMOUNTS TO THE
EAST. THIS COMES AS HIGH PRESSURE SINKS SOUTH OF THE REGION AND THE
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DROPS FROM CANADA INTO NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. THUS, DESPITE BEING ON THE PERIPHERY OF A MID LEVEL
RIDGE CAN'T RULE OUT SOME HIT-AND-MISS SHOWERS EACH DAY WITH A GOOD
AMOUNT OF CLOUDCOVER. THE BIGGEST IMPACT OF THE TRACK OF THIS LOW
WILL BE A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THAT, DESPITE A STEADILY WARMING MID
LEVEL AIRMASS (850 MB TEMPS UP TO +10C BY MONDAY FOR SOME), WILL
KEEP THE MORE SIGNIFICANT WARM UP CONFINED TO WESTERN MA/CT ON
MONDAY. THERE REMAINS A HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO
HIGH TEMPERATURES, ESPECIALLY MONDAY AS THE FRONT LOOKS TO DROP
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
GUIDANCE IS LOOKING SLOWER TO KICK STEERING FLOW BACK TO SOUTHERLY
FOR TUESDAY WHICH IS NOT INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST BEYOND MONDAY EITHER. A SEASONABLE AIRMASS DOES LOOK TO
REMAIN IN PLACE THOUGH, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S FOR TUESDAY
AND WARMING FURTHER WED/THU. AGAIN, THIS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON
THE HOW THE PATTERN EVOLVES BEYOND MONDAY WHICH REMAINS UNCERTAIN.
WHAT IS LARGELY AGREED UPON IS OUR MID LEVEL RIDGING FINALLY
BREAKING DOWN WITH A SHORTWAVE AND FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH ON
TUESDAY BRINGING THE RETURN OF MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE, MAINLY OVER WESTERN MA/CT WHERE THERE
EXISTS SEVERAL HUNDRED J/KG OF CAPE BUT FORCING DOES NOT LOOK
ESPECIALLY STRONG.
AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
FORECAST CONFIDENCE LEVELS:
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
15Z TAF UPDATE:
TODAY: HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. LIGHT WINDS WILL TREND LIGHT SOUTHERLY FOR MOST, EXCEPT
LOCAL SEABREEZES NEAR BOTH SOUTHERN AND EASTERN COASTS.
TONIGHT... HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. CHANCE OF PATCHY FOG IN AREAS THAT
RADIATE.
SATURDAY... HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS BY LATE AFTERNOON. SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS
10 TO 15 KNOTS.
KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. VFR. SEA BREEZE HAS
DEVELOPED AND WILL CONTINUE AROUND 110 DEGREES AT 10-12 KT UNTIL
ABOUT 00Z WITH SSE WINDS. WINDS BECOME LIGHT SOUTHERLY TONIGHT.
SEABREEZES AGAIN LIKELY FOR SAT, FOLLOWING SIMILAR 14-16Z
TIMEFRAME AS PRIOR DAYS.
KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. VFR. LIGHT NORTH WINDS MOST
OF TODAY, BUT WILL TREND SOUTHERLY AROUND 4-7 KT LATE TODAY INTO
TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SATURDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE
SHRA.
SUNDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE
SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR
POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.
TUESDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE
RA.
MARINE
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS:
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MEDIUM - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY... HIGH CONFIDENCE.
TRANQUIL BOATING CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE COASTAL WATERS.
TODAY: SUNNY. LIGHT NORTH WINDS (EASTERLY NEAR SHORE) EARLY
TODAY, THIS AFTERNOON, WINDS TURN SOUTHERLY AROUND 10-15 KT.
SEAS 3 FT OR LESS.
TONIGHT: DRY. WINDS BECOMES MORE WESTERLY AND ARE LESS THAN 10
KNOTS. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS.
SATURDAY: SUNNY. INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS,
SEAS 2-3 FT.
OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT.
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
MONDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT.
MONDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS.
TUESDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS LOCALLY APPROACHING 5 FT.
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...BW/DOOLEY
NEAR TERM...LOCONTO/BW/DOOLEY
SHORT TERM...DOOLEY
LONG TERM...BW
AVIATION...LOCONTO/BW/DOOLEY
MARINE...LOCONTO/BW/DOOLEY
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