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FXUS61 KBOX 270512
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
112 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
INCREASED THIS AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS TO UPPER 60S/LOW 70S AWAY FROM
THE SOUTH COAST, GIVEN RECENT HOURLY TRENDS COUPLED WITH STRONG WAA
AND MARCH SUN.
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM CONDITIONS TODAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. COOLER FRI, BUT STILL NEAR
NORMAL, ALONG WITH INCREASING FILTERED AFTERNOON SUNSHINE.
- COLDER THAN NORMAL AND BLUSTERY SATURDAY, THEN NOT AS COLD SUNDAY
WITH GRADUAL WARMING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TRENDING UNSETTLED WITH
PERIODS OF SHOWERS TUESDAY THROUGH LATE-WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...WARM CONDITIONS TODAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. COOLER FRI, BUT STILL
NEAR NORMAL, ALONG WITH INCREASING FILTERED AFTERNOON SUNSHINE.
GIVEN RAPIDLY WARMING TEMPS LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON,
BUMPED UP HIGHS AWAY FROM THE SOUTH COAST. MODEL SOUNDINGS HAVE
+11C/+12C AT 950 MB ALONG WITH GOOD MIXING VIA SW WINDS 15-25 MPH,
SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. COOLER SOUTH
COAST GIVEN SSW WIND TRAJECTORY.
SHORT WAVE AND ATTENDING COLD FRONT APPROACH THE REGION THIS EVENING
FROM THE WEST. GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON SHOWERS ARRIVING IN CT AND
WESTERN MA BETWEEN 6PM-9PM AND 9PM-12AM. SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY
THAT MAY YIELD AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM TONIGHT, ALONG WITH A FEW
DOWNPOURS, BUT OVERALL, MAINLY JUST WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. MODEST
FORCING FOR ASCENT COUPLED WITH A SATURATED COLUMN, WILL YIELD A
SWATH OF QPF OF 0.2 TO 0.4 INCHES, WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS UP TO 0.5 TO
0.6 INCHES ACROSS WESTERN CT/MA. BY NO MEANS ANY FLOODING, MORE LIKE
BENEFICIAL RAINS. ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS TONIGHT GIVE PREFRONTAL
AIRMASS. LOWS 40-45, MID TO UPPER 30S ACROSS NORTHERN MA. THESE
TEMPS ARE ABOUT 5-10 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL.
FRIDAY...ANY MORNING SHOWERS EXIT OFF THE SOUTH COAST BY MIDDAY,
WITH DRIER AND COOLER POST FRONTAL AIRMASS OVERSPREADING THE REGION
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. THIS WILL SUPPORT INCREASING SUNSHINE THROUGH
MID/HIGH CLOUDS. HOWEVER, STRONG CAA ON GUSTY N-NW WINDS 15-25 MPH,
WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH DURING THE MORNING, WILL YIELD MUCH COOLER
TEMPS WITH HIGHS 45-50. THESE TEMPS ARE SEASONABLE FOR LATE MARCH,
BUT THE GUSTY NNW WIND WILL MAKE IT FEEL MUCH COOLER.
KEY MESSAGE 2...COLDER THAN NORMAL AND BLUSTERY SATURDAY, THEN NOT
AS COLD SUNDAY WITH GRADUAL WARMING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TRENDING
UNSETTLED WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS TUESDAY THROUGH LATE-WEEK.
DRY, COOL, AND WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY. UNDER MID-LEVEL
TROUGHINESS, A BELOW NORMAL AIRMASS SITS OVER THE NORTHEAST. 925MB
TEMPERATURES STAY AROUND -8 TO -6C YIELDING HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 30S, AROUND 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE MARCH. CAA
WILL SUPPORT A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER BRINGING DOWN STRONGER NW
WINDS WITH GUSTS 20-30 MPH. THIS WILL MAKE IT FEEL MUCH LIKE WINTER
ON SATURDAY WITH WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE 20S. TEMPERATURES
GRADUALLY MODERATE SUNDAY AS THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH EXITS TO THE EAST.
HIGH TEMPERATURES RETURN TO SEASONABLE VALUES IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50.
ANOTHER WINDY DAY IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY WITH A SW LLJ JET NUDGING IN
FROM THE SOUTH BRINGING GUSTY SW WINDS 20-35 MPH.
AFTER A FEW DRY DAYS, THE PATTERN TRENDS UNSETTLED WITH ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE SHOWING A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE
FLOW, TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THERE IS SOME SUBTLE
DIFFERENCES IN TIMING ACROSS GUIDANCE IN THE TIMING OF THE WAVES
THAT WILL NEED TO BE IRONED OUT AS WE GET CLOSER. WITH ANOMALOUS
MOISTURE GRADUALLY ADVECTING IN EARLY TO MID-WEEK, THIS WILL SUPPORT
PERIODS OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES LEAN ABOVE NORMAL
NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
THROUGH 12Z...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SCATTERED AREAS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS FROM -RA CONTINUE THROUGH
ABOUT 12Z THIS MORNING AS A COLD FRONT WORKS ITS WAY SOUTHEAST.
LLWS LINGERS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST THRU 09Z.
TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING ESPECIALLY ALONG THE S
COAST. QUICK IMPROVMENTS TO VFR EXPECTED FROM NW TO SE AFTER
12Z. IMPROVEMENTS MAY TAKE AS LONG AS 18Z FOR THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS. SOUTHWEST WINDS BECOMING NORTHWEST BY THIS MORNING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FROPA.
TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR CLOUD BASES ALONG WITH DRY WEATHER AND MODEST NNE WINDS.
KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE
IN EXACT TIMING. LARGEST SOURCE OF UNCERTAINTY IS THE END TIME
OF -RA THIS MORNING.
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE
IN EXACT TIMING.
OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. BREEZY.
SATURDAY NIGHT: VFR.
SUNDAY: VFR. BREEZY.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY: BREEZY.
MONDAY NIGHT: BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE RA.
TUESDAY: BREEZY. CHANCE RA.
MARINE
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
SSW WINDS SUSTAINED WINDS BETWEEN 15-25 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT
THIS EVENING. WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST 06Z-12Z FRI, AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WITH A ROUND OF SHOWERS. NORTH
TO NORTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK WITH A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS
POSSIBLE ON THE EDGE OF THE OUTER MARINE ZONES.
OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SATURDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. AREAS OF SEAS APPROACHING
5 FT.
SATURDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT.
SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. SEAS LOCALLY APPROACHING 5 FT.
MONDAY: LOW RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH GUSTS UP
TO 25 KT. AREAS OF ROUGH SEAS.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. AREAS OF ROUGH SEAS. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN.
TUESDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. LOCAL ROUGH SEAS. CHANCE OF
RAIN.
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
ANZ231>234-251.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ235-
237.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ250.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
ANZ254>256.
DISCUSSION...BELK/FT
AVIATION...FT
MARINE...BELK/FT
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