794  
FNUS72 KCAE 231025  
FWSCAE  
 
SPOT FORECAST FOR WILDFIRE PREP...DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC  
625 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2020  
 
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0900 EDT ON MAY 23.  
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER  
SERVICE.  
 
POSITIVE OR NEGATIVE FEEDBACK INCLUDING OBSERVATIONS TAKEN AT  
THE BURN SITE WOULD BE GREATLY APPRECIATED. YOU CAN USE THE SAME  
WEBPAGE WHERE YOU REQUESTED THE SPOT FORECAST FOR THIS. YOU MAY  
ALSO CALL OUR OFFICE IF YOU HAVE QUESTIONS OR CONCERNS.  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE NORTH OF THE BURN AREA TODAY AND  
CONTINUE TO BE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION. WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY  
SKIES THIS MORNING TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY WARM WITH SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.  
SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY  
WINDS. MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL BE 51 PERCENT THIS  
AFTERNOON. WITH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AND ALREADY WET SOILS PATCHY  
FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT.  
   
TODAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (35-45 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE  
AFTERNOON.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......20 PERCENT.  
LAL.................NO TSTMS UNTIL 1500, THEN 9-15 STRIKES.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 90.  
MIN HUMIDITY........52 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING WEST 5 TO 6 MPH IN THE  
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC  
WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE  
AFTERNOON.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......5600 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 9 TO 15 MPH.  
HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR VERY LOW TO LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE  
PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (EDT) 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM  
SKY (%).........45 41 36 37 37 38 38 38 38  
WEATHER COV..... SCH SCH SCH  
WEATHER TYPE.... RW RW RW  
TSTM COV........ SCH SCH SCH  
CHC OF PCPN (%).10 10 10 10 10 10 20 20 20  
TEMP............72 76 79 81 83 85 86 87 87  
RH..............84 74 67 63 59 55 53 52 53  
20 FT WIND DIR..W W W W W W W W W  
20 FT WIND DIR..250 260 260 260 270 270 270 260 260  
20 FT WIND SPD..4 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 5  
20 FT WIND GUST.8 9 12 12 14 14 14 12 9  
MIX HGT (KFT)...1.2 1.7 2.1 3.1 4.1 5.1 5.2 5.4 5.6  
TRANSP WIND DIR.W W W W W W W W W  
TRANSP WIND SPD.9 10 13 14 14 15 14 13 10  
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 3 3 3 3  
HAINES INDEX....3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING AND  
OVERNIGHT.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......20 PERCENT.  
LAL.................9-15 STRIKES UNTIL 0400, THEN NO TSTMS.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 69.  
MAX HUMIDITY........93 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED  
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING AND  
OVERNIGHT.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 5 TO 9 MPH.  
HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR VERY LOW TO LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE  
PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (EDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM  
SKY (%).........38 38 39 39 40 41  
WEATHER COV.....S CHC S CHC S CHC S CHC S CHC  
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE  
TSTM COV........S CHC S CHC S CHC S CHC S CHC  
CHC OF PCPN (%).20 20 20 20 20 10  
TEMP............86 82 78 75 73 72  
RH..............55 65 74 82 87 90  
20 FT WIND......W 4 W 3 W 2 W 2 W 2 W 2  
20 FT WIND GUST.8 6 3 3 3 3  
MIX HGT (FT)....4600 1100 600 500 400 400  
TRANSPORT WIND..W 9 SW 6 SW 5 W 5 W 5 W 5  
LAL.............3 3 3 3 3 3  
HAINES INDEX....4 4 4 3 3 3  
   
SUNDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (40-50 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING.  
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE  
AFTERNOON, THEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS  
LIKELY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......60 PERCENT.  
LAL.................NO TSTMS UNTIL 0700, THEN 9-15 STRIKES UNTIL  
1200, THEN 16-25 STRIKES UNTIL 1700, THEN >25  
STRIKES.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 91.  
MIN HUMIDITY........50 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED  
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......6100 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 5 TO 6 MPH.  
HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED  
FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (EDT) 6 AM 9 AM NOON 3 PM  
SKY (%).........42 30 40 57  
WEATHER COV..... S CHC CHANCE CHANCE  
WEATHER TYPE....NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR  
TSTM COV........ S CHC CHANCE CHANCE  
CHC OF PCPN (%).10 20 30 50  
TEMP............72 77 86 89  
RH..............90 79 55 50  
20 FT WIND......NW 2G3 N 1G3 NE 2G5 E 2G5  
MIX HGT (FT)....300 1500 4100 5800  
TRANSPORT WIND..W 5 W 6 NW 6 NW 6  
LAL.............3 4 4 5  
HAINES INDEX....3 3 3 3  
 

 
FORECASTER...PROUD  
REQUESTED BY...CALEB MAXWELL  
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED  
.TAG 2006954.0/CAE  
.DELDT 05/23/20  
.EMAIL CALEB.C.MAXWELL.CIV@MAIL.MIL  
 
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