998
FNUS72 KILM 100935
FWSILM
SPOT FORECAST FOR BLACK RIVER RX...THE NATURE CONSERVANCY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
535 AM EDT FRI MAY 10 2024
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0800 EDT ON MAY 10.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...OR IF YOU HAVE QUESTIONS
OR CONCERNS ABOUT THIS FORECAST...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN WILMINGTON AT 910-762-1374.
DISCUSSION
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. SOME STORMS COULD
BE STRONG OR SEVERE. THE FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST EARLY THIS
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS AND LOWER DAYTIME
RH WILL DOMINATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WIND PROFILE ANALYSIS/FIRE CONTROL OVER FLAT TERRAIN IS FAVORABLE.
FOG POTENTIAL FOR TONIGHT IS NONE.
REST OF TODAY
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (55-65 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE
AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 84.
MIN HUMIDITY........65 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST 5 TO 7 MPH IN
THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND
ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE AFTERNOON.
MAX MIXING HGT......3000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 14 TO 18 MPH.
MAX VENT RATE.......FAIR (51199 MPH-FT).
MAX LVORI...........4.
MAX ADI.............63.
HAINES INDEX........3 TO 5 OR VERY LOW TO MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR
LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
TIME (EDT) 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........43 48 53 57 63 69 74 75 76 77
WEATHER COV..... SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC
WEATHER TYPE.... RW RW RW RW RW
TSTM COV........ SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC
TEMP............69 72 75 78 79 79 80 79 79 78
RH..............90 82 74 68 67 66 65 66 67 68
20 FT WIND DIR..W W W W W SW SW SW W W
20 FT WIND SPD..4 4 5 5 6 6 6 7 7 7
20 FT WIND GUST.7 7 8 9 10 11 12 12 12 12
MIX HGT (KFT)...1.0 1.3 1.6 2.4 2.7 2.5 3.0 2.3 2.4 2.1
TRANSP WIND DIR.W W W W W W W W SW W
TRANSP WIND SPD.14 14 14 15 17 16 17 17 18 17
STABILITY.......A A B B B B B B B C
LVORI...........4 3 3 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
ADI.............17 23 28 45 59 50 63 51 56 44
HAINES INDEX....5 5 5 5 5 5 3 3 3 3
VRATE MPH-FT/1K.13 18 22 35 47 40 51 40 44 36
VENTRATE CAT....PR PR PR PR FR PR FR PR FR PR
TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
PARTLY CLOUDY (25-35 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS
LIKELY AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
EVENING.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 54.
MAX HUMIDITY........87 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WINDS 6 TO 7 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
NORTH 5 TO 6 MPH IN THE LATE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT, THEN BECOMING LIGHT EARLY IN THE
MORNING. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING.
MIN MIXING HGT......400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 15 TO 16 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTH 14 TO
17 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING.
MIN VENT RATE.......POOR (6394 MPH-FT).
MAX LVORI...........5.
MIN ADI.............6.
HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR VERY LOW TO LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE
PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).........75 74 72 56 41 26 27 28 29 24 20 15
WEATHER COV.....LKY LKY CHC CHC CHC SCH
WEATHER TYPE....RW RW RW RW RW RW
TSTM COV........CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
TEMP............75 73 70 68 67 65 63 61 60 59 58 57
RH..............73 77 84 84 85 87 87 87 86 86 85 86
20 FT WIND DIR..W W NW NW NW NW NW N N N N N
20 FT WIND SPD..7 6 6 6 5 5 5 6 6 5 5 4
20 FT WIND GUST.12 11 11 9 9 9 9 9 10 9 9 8
MIX HGT (KFT)...1.5 1.0 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5
TRANSP WIND DIR.W W N NW N N N N N N N N
TRANSP WIND SPD.16 15 16 15 15 15 16 15 17 15 14 14
STABILITY.......C E E E E F F F F F F F
LVORI...........3 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 4 4 4 5
ADI.............32 10 11 10 10 7 7 7 8 7 6 6
HAINES INDEX....3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
VRATE MPH-FT/1K.25 15 8 7 7 7 7 7 9 7 6 7
VENTRATE CAT....PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR
SATURDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (5-15 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 75.
MIN HUMIDITY........42 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING NORTH AROUND 5 MPH IN THE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON, THEN BECOMING
LIGHT EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON BECOMING NORTHWEST
AROUND 5 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX MIXING HGT......6500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 12 TO 17 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST 14
TO 15 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX VENT RATE.......GOOD (97437 MPH-FT).
MAX LVORI...........5.
MAX ADI.............118.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
FIRE GROWTH.
TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM
SKY (%).........13 8 4 3 3 3
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
TSTM COV........
TEMP............56 57 62 68 72 74
RH..............87 85 68 54 46 42
20 FT WIND......N 4 N 5 N 5 N 5 NW 4 W 5
20 FT WIND GUST.8 8 9 9 8 9
MIX HGT (FT)....600 1900 3300 4800 6000 6300
TRANSPORT WIND..N 14 N 17 N 16 N 13 NW 12 NW 14
STABILITY.......F A A A A A
LVORI...........5 4 1 1 1 1
ADI.............6 44 68 76 84 106
HAINES INDEX....4 4 4 4 4 4
VRATE MPH-FT/1K.8 34 53 61 69 87
VENTRATE CAT....POOR POOR FAIR GOOD GOOD GOOD
FORECASTER...MORGAN
REQUESTED BY...NATHAN BURMESTER
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2413679.0/ILM
.DELDT 05/10/24
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
.EMAIL NATHAN.BURMESTER@TNC.ORG
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