819  
FNUS72 KILM 162244  
FWSILM  
 
SPOT FORECAST FOR DRIVING CREEK FIRE...NC FOREST SERVICE  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC  
644 PM EDT MON MAY 16 2022  
 
FORECAST IS BASED ON FORECAST START TIME OF 0700 EDT ON MAY 17.  
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...OR IF YOU HAVE QUESTIONS  
OR CONCERNS ABOUT THIS FORECAST...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER  
SERVICE IN WILMINGTON AT 910-762-1374.  
   
DISCUSSION
 
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS  
EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. GENERALLY DRY WEATHER FOLLOWS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN  
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK. VERY WARM WEATHER WILL RETURN MID  
TO LATE WEEK.  
 
FOG POTENTIAL FOR TONIGHT IS LOW.  
   
TUESDAY NIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........CLEAR (0-10 PERCENT).  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 63.  
MAX HUMIDITY........83 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS.  
MIN MIXING HGT......300 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 6 TO 9 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH 6 TO 10  
MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING, THEN SHIFTING TO THE  
WEST AROUND 6 MPH AFTER 3 AM.  
MIN VENT RATE.......POOR (1836 MPH-FT).  
MAX LVORI...........5.  
MIN ADI.............3.  
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM  
SKY (%).........3 3 3 3 3 4 3 3 2 3 4 5  
WEATHER COV.....  
WEATHER TYPE....  
TSTM COV........  
TEMP............80 77 74 72 71 69 68 67 67 66 65 64  
RH..............42 49 57 61 66 71 74 76 79 80 81 83  
20 FT WIND DIR..SW S S S S S SW SW SW SW W NW  
20 FT WIND SPD..3 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 1  
20 FT WIND GUST.6 5 4 4 4 3 3 3 2 2 3 3  
MIX HGT (KFT)...3.9 1.6 0.9 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3  
TRANSP WIND DIR.W SW S S S S S SW SW SW W W  
TRANSP WIND SPD.9 6 10 6 6 9 9 8 6 6 6 6  
STABILITY.......B F F F F F F F F F F F  
LVORI...........1 2 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 5 5 5  
ADI.............43 3 5 3 3 4 4 3 3 3 3 3  
HAINES INDEX....5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5  
VRATE MPH-FT/1K.36 9 9 3 2 4 4 3 2 2 2 2  
VENTRATE CAT....PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR  
SFC PRES (IN)...988 988 993 993 993 996 996 996 998 998 998 997  
 

 
FORECASTER...KEEBLER  
REQUESTED BY...JAMES CADDY  
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE  
.TAG 2211534.10/ILM  
.DELDT 05/16/22  
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0  
.EMAIL JAMES.CADDY@NCAGR.GOV  
 
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