079
FNUS72 KILM 091142
FWSILM
SPOT FORECAST FOR TF10...TWIN CREEKS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
742 AM EDT FRI APR 9 2021
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0900 EDT ON APRIL 09.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...OR IF YOU HAVE QUESTIONS
OR CONCERNS ABOUT THIS FORECAST...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN WILMINGTON AT 910-762-1374.
DISCUSSION
ANY WIND-SHIFT AT THE BURN SITE FROM THE SEA BREEZE, WILL NOT BE A
LARGE DIFFERENCE IN DIRECTION FROM THE PREVAILING SYNOPTIC WIND, BUT
LOOK FOR S WINDS TO INCREASE IN AFTERNOON, WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTINESS.
WIND PROFILE ANALYSIS/FIRE CONTROL OVER FLAT TERRAIN IS FAVORABLE.
FOG POTENTIAL FOR TONIGHT IS LOW.
REST OF TODAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (40-50 PERCENT).
CHANCE OF PCPN......10 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 79.
MIN HUMIDITY........50 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTH 5 TO 9 MPH IN THE
AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTS TO 18 MPH.
MAX MIXING HGT......4900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 5 TO 14 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH 15
TO 20 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX VENT RATE.......FAIR (51869 MPH-FT).
MAX LVORI...........4.
MAX ADI.............37.
HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR VERY LOW TO LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE
PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
TIME (EDT) 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........48 44 40 44 48 52 52 51 51
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TSTM COV........
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 10 10 10 10 10 10 10
TEMP............68 72 75 77 78 79 78 77 76
RH..............81 70 62 57 55 53 55 57 59
APARNT TMP (F)..68 72 75 77 78 79 78 77 76
20 FT WIND DIR..SW SW SW SW S S S S S
20 FT WIND SPD..4 4 4 5 6 7 8 8 9
20 FT WIND GUST.6 7 7 9 11 13 13 14 14
MIX HGT (KFT)...1.0 1.4 2.4 4.0 4.9 4.6 3.8 2.9 2.0
TRANSP WIND DIR.SW W W SW SW SW S S S
TRANSP WIND SPD.7 7 6 6 6 7 14 15 16
STABILITY.......B C C C C D D D D
LVORI...........4 3 2 2 2 2 1 1 1
ADI.............9 13 16 22 23 20 37 35 31
HAINES INDEX....3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4
VRATE MPH-FT/1K.7 10 14 23 28 32 52 43 31
VENTRATE CAT....PR PR PR PR PR PR FR FR PR
SFC PRES (IN)...002 002 002 002 002 000 000 000 000
TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE EVENING. SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE IN THE EVENING.
CHANCE OF PCPN......20 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 61.
MAX HUMIDITY........93 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 6 TO 16 MPH BECOMING LIGHT. GUSTY
AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS
LATE IN THE EVENING.
MIN MIXING HGT......300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 5 TO 16 MPH DECREASING TO 5 TO 6 MPH LATE
IN THE EVENING, THEN BECOMING LIGHT OVERNIGHT
BECOMING SOUTHWEST 5 TO 8 MPH OVERNIGHT.
MIN VENT RATE.......POOR (1556 MPH-FT).
MAX LVORI...........7.
MIN ADI.............2.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
FIRE GROWTH.
TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).........55 59 63 63 63 63 60 57 54 53 52 51
WEATHER COV..... SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
WEATHER TYPE.... RW RW RW RW RW RW RW
TSTM COV........ SCH SCH SCH
CHC OF PCPN (%).10 10 10 10 10 20 20 20 20 20 20 20
TEMP............73 71 68 67 66 65 65 64 64 63 63 63
RH..............65 71 79 79 84 90 91 91 92 92 92 93
APARNT TMP (F)..73 71 68 67 66 65 65 64 64 63 63 63
20 FT WIND DIR..S S S S S S S SW SW SW S S
20 FT WIND SPD..7 6 5 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 2 2
20 FT WIND GUST.12 10 7 7 6 10 10 10 9 9 8 8
MIX HGT (KFT)...1.4 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.3
TRANSP WIND DIR.S S S S S S S S SW S SW SW
TRANSP WIND SPD.16 16 13 13 12 6 5 3 5 8 5 5
STABILITY.......D E E E E E F F F F F F
LVORI...........3 3 4 4 5 6 6 7 6 6 6 6
ADI.............26 11 8 8 8 4 2 2 2 4 2 2
HAINES INDEX....4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
VRATE MPH-FT/1K.23 15 10 8 7 3 2 2 2 4 2 2
VENTRATE CAT....PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR
SFC PRES (IN)...000 000 002 002 002 002 002 002 003 003 003 003
SATURDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (50-60 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS EARLY IN THE MORNING. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE
MORNING.
CHANCE OF PCPN......20 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 77.
MIN HUMIDITY........65 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 8 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING
BECOMING LIGHT, THEN BECOMING SOUTH 5 TO 11 MPH
IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND
ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS LATE
IN THE MORNING.
MAX MIXING HGT......3300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 5 TO 11 MPH INCREASING TO 15 TO 18 MPH
LATE IN THE MORNING.
MAX VENT RATE.......FAIR (56481 MPH-FT).
MAX LVORI...........6.
MAX ADI.............53.
HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR VERY LOW TO LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE
PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM
SKY (%).........55 64 57 52 47 52
WEATHER COV.....S CHC S CHC S CHC S CHC S CHC
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
TSTM COV........ S CHC S CHC S CHC
CHC OF PCPN (%).20 10 20 20 20 20
TEMP............63 64 69 73 75 74
RH..............92 92 77 69 65 68
APARNT TMP (F)..63 64 69 73 75 74
20 FT WIND......S 2 S 3 S 5 S 8 S 10 S 10
20 FT WIND GUST.8 10 12 14 14 17
MIX HGT (FT)....300 700 1600 2600 3300 2600
TRANSPORT WIND..SW 5 SW 9 S 10 S 16 S 17 S 18
STABILITY.......F C D D D D
LVORI...........6 5 3 3 1 1
ADI.............2 7 18 36 43 40
HAINES INDEX....4 3 3 3 3 3
VRATE MPH-FT/1K.2 6 17 42 56 47
VENTRATE CAT....POOR POOR POOR FAIR FAIR FAIR
SFC PRES (IN)...30.03 30.02 30.02 30.02 29.95 29.95
FORECASTER...COLBY
REQUESTED BY...B BARNHILL
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2108360.1/ILM
.DELDT 04/09/21
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
.EMAIL BRIANBARNHILL910@YAHOO.COM
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page