813  
FNUS72 KILM 011913  
FWSILM  
 
SPOT FORECAST FOR LONGLEAF PARK BURN...NC FOREST SERVICE  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC  
313 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2020  
 
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1600 EDT ON AUGUST 01.  
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...OR IF YOU HAVE QUESTIONS  
OR CONCERNS ABOUT THIS FORECAST...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER  
SERVICE IN WILMINGTON AT 910-762-1374.  
   
..HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING
 
 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
SCATTERED TSTMS AND HOT AGAIN TODAY. ISAIAS WILL LIKELY BRING WIND  
AND RAIN, MAINLY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT, AS IT PASSES THROUGH THE  
AREA. THE TROPICAL SYSTEM SHOULD PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA TUESDAY  
FOLLOWED BY A RETURN TO TYPICAL SUMMER-TIME CONDITIONS FOR MID TO  
LATE WEEK.  
 
WIND PROFILE ANALYSIS/FIRE CONTROL OVER FLAT TERRAIN IS FAVORABLE.  
 
FOG POTENTIAL FOR TONIGHT IS NONE.  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (20-30 PERCENT). ISOLATED SHOWERS  
AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......20 PERCENT.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 78.  
MAX HUMIDITY........92 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 6 TO 10 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 22 MPH  
EARLY IN THE EVENING. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS  
EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE  
EVENING.  
MIN MIXING HGT......500 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 6 TO 20 MPH INCREASING TO 10 TO 18  
MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING.  
MIN VENT RATE.......5865 MPH-FT.  
MAX LVORI...........6.  
MIN ADI.............5.  
 
TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM  
SKY (%).........29 32 37 34 32 30 26 23 20 16 13 10  
WEATHER COV.....ISO ISO ISO  
WEATHER TYPE....RW RW RW  
TSTM COV........ISO ISO ISO  
TEMP............88 86 84 83 82 82 81 81 81 80 79 79  
RH..............68 72 77 81 84 86 90 90 90 91 92 89  
CHC PCPN (%)....20 20 20 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10  
20 FT WIND DIR..SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW  
20 FT WIND SPD..10 10 9 8 8 7 7 7 6 6 6 6  
20 FT WIND GUST.18 17 16 16 14 14 14 14 13 11 10 10  
MIX HGT (KFT)...2.2 1.9 1.3 1.2 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.5  
TRANSP WIND DIR.SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW  
TRANSP WIND SPD.20 20 18 17 17 16 16 16 13 10 10 12  
HAINES INDEX....3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4  
VR MPH-FT*1000..44 37 25 21 17 16 16 14 8 6 6 6  
STABILITY.......D D E E E E E E E E F F  
LVORI...........1 3 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 6 6  
ADI.............40 22 12 12 12 11 11 11 8 7 5 5  
APARNT TMP (F)..98 96 94 92 90 90 90 89 88 87 84 79  
SFC PRES (IN)...993 993 995 995 995 995 995 995 996 996 996 996  
   
SUNDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (5-15 PERCENT).  
CHANCE OF PCPN......10 PERCENT.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 92.  
MIN HUMIDITY........60 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 6 TO 18 MPH SHIFTING TO THE  
SOUTH 7 TO 10 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND  
AFTERNOON.  
MAX MIXING HGT......3800 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 7 TO 16 MPH.  
MAX VENT RATE.......57614 MPH-FT.  
MAX LVORI...........6.  
MAX ADI.............54.  
 
TIME (EDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM  
SKY (%).........9 8 7 8 8 9 9 9 10 10 10 10  
WEATHER COV.....  
WEATHER TYPE....  
TSTM COV........  
TEMP............79 80 81 84 86 89 89 90 90 89 88 87  
RH..............89 89 85 76 69 62 61 60 60 62 64 67  
CHC PCPN (%)....10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10  
20 FT WIND DIR..SW SW S S S S S S S S S S  
20 FT WIND SPD..6 6 6 7 7 8 8 9 10 10 10 9  
20 FT WIND GUST.10 11 11 12 13 13 14 14 16 16 16 16  
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.5 0.5 1.1 1.8 2.5 3.2 3.8 3.8 3.6 3.3 2.7 2.5  
TRANSP WIND DIR.SW SW SW SW SW SW SW S S S S S  
TRANSP WIND SPD.10 10 15 16 15 15 15 15 16 16 16 16  
HAINES INDEX....4 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5  
VR MPH-FT*1000..5 5 17 29 37 48 57 57 58 53 43 41  
STABILITY.......F C C C C C C D D D D D  
LVORI...........6 5 4 3 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 3  
ADI.............5 8 21 37 43 50 54 41 42 41 36 35  
APARNT TMP (F)..83 84 88 93 95 97 99 99 100 99 98 97  
SFC PRES (IN)...996 996 001 001 001 001 001 001 000 000 000 000  
   
SUNDAY NIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (25-35 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING  
MOSTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE EVENING.  
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER  
MIDNIGHT, THEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY  
EARLY IN THE MORNING.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......60 PERCENT.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 78.  
MAX HUMIDITY........93 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 7 TO 16 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC  
WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LATE  
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.  
MIN MIXING HGT......700 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 7 TO 17 MPH.  
MIN VENT RATE.......8164 MPH-FT.  
MAX LVORI...........5.  
MIN ADI.............9.  
 
TIME (EDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM  
SKY (%).........13 19 29 39 48 60  
WEATHER COV..... S CHC S CHC CHANCE CHANCE  
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR  
TSTM COV........ S CHC S CHC CHANCE CHANCE  
TEMP............86 83 82 81 80 79  
RH..............71 78 82 85 87 91  
CHC PCPN (%)....10 10 20 20 30 50  
20 FT WIND......S 9 S 8 S 7 S 7 S 7 S 7  
20 FT WIND GUST.14 13 13 12 12 12  
MIX HGT (FT)....2400 1800 1800 1300 1000 800  
TRANSPORT WIND..S 17 S 17 S 16 S 16 S 14 S 12  
HAINES INDEX....5 5 5 5 5 5  
VR MPH-FT*1000..41 32 28 21 14 10  
STABILITY.......D E E E D D  
LVORI...........3 4 4 4 4 5  
ADI.............37 12 11 11 12 11  
APARNT TMP (F)..95 91 89 87 86 79  
SFC PRES (IN)...30.00 30.01 30.01 30.01 30.00 30.00  
   
MONDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY EARLY IN THE MORNING, THEN  
SHOWERS AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN  
THE MORNING.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......80 PERCENT.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 87.  
MIN HUMIDITY........69 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 6 TO 17 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH  
LATE IN THE MORNING. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS  
EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.  
MAX MIXING HGT......4100 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 6 TO 17 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST 16  
TO 21 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING.  
MAX VENT RATE.......85330 MPH-FT.  
MAX LVORI...........5.  
MAX ADI.............58.  
 
TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM  
SKY (%).........72 84 83 82 81 87  
WEATHER COV.....LIKELY DEFNTE DEFNTE DEFNTE DEFNTE DEFNTE  
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR  
TSTM COV........LIKELY CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE  
TEMP............79 81 81 84 85 86  
RH..............91 87 84 75 71 69  
CHC PCPN (%)....60 80 80 80 80 80  
20 FT WIND......S 7 S 6 S 9 S 11 S 12 S 13  
20 FT WIND GUST.12 11 14 18 19 19  
MIX HGT (FT)....800 1000 2000 3000 4100 2300  
TRANSPORT WIND..S 12 SE 13 S 15 S 18 SE 21 SE 18  
HAINES INDEX....5 4 4 4 4 4  
VR MPH-FT*1000..9 13 30 55 85 42  
STABILITY.......D D D D D D  
LVORI...........5 4 4 3 3 3  
ADI.............10 17 28 43 58 38  
APARNT TMP (F)..79 87 88 93 94 95  
SFC PRES (IN)...30.00 30.02 30.02 30.02 29.97 29.97  
 

 
FORECASTER...OLIVA  
REQUESTED BY...JOSHUA JOHNSTON  
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED  
.TAG 2010271.0/ILM  
.DELDT 08/01/20  
.EMAIL JOSHUA.JOHNSTON@NCAGR.GOV  
 
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