554  
FNUS72 KILM 040906  
FWSILM  
 
SPOT FORECAST FOR ORTON CREEK RX...THE NATURE CONSERVANCY  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC  
406 AM EST SAT FEB 4 2023  
 
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0800 EST ON FEBRUARY 04.  
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...OR IF YOU HAVE QUESTIONS  
OR CONCERNS ABOUT THIS FORECAST...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER  
SERVICE IN WILMINGTON AT 910-762-1374.  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS, A SECONDARY COLD AIR ADVECTION  
SURGE THRU THE LOWER 2500 FT OF THE ATM WILL PROVIDE AN  
UNFAVORABLE PROFILE. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BY MIDDAY AS  
THE THE CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH MOVES CLOSER OVERHEAD AND THE  
COLD AIR SURGE CEASES.  
 
ARCTIC AIR WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THROUGH TODAY  
WITH WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS. A  
COASTAL TROUGH WILL BRING MILDER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING  
RAIN CHANCES SUN. WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE SUN NIGHT  
FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE MON. THE HIGH WILL BUILD ALONG  
THE EAST COAST FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK WITH CONTINUED DRY  
WEATHER BUT TEMPERATURES INCREASING TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR  
THE UPCOMING MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD.  
 
THIS MORNING FOR YOUR LOCATION...  
WIND PROFILE ANALYSIS/FIRE CONTROL OVER FLAT TERRAIN IS UNFAVORABLE  
TYPE 1-D...DIRECTION NE...MAXIMUM WIND 29 MPH AT 1700 FT.  
 
THIS AFTERNOON...  
WIND PROFILE ANALYSIS/FIRE CONTROL OVER FLAT TERRAIN IS FAVORABLE.  
 
FOG POTENTIAL FOR TONIGHT IS LOW.  
   
REST OF TODAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (0-10 PERCENT).  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 44.  
MIN HUMIDITY........41 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 9 MPH.  
MAX MIXING HGT......3200 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 12 TO 21 MPH DECREASING TO AROUND 10 MPH  
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.  
MAX VENT RATE.......FAIR (54895 MPH-FT).  
MAX LVORI...........2.  
MAX ADI.............60.  
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED  
FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (EST) 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM  
SKY (%).........0 0 0 1 2 3 5 6 8 11  
WEATHER COV.....  
WEATHER TYPE....  
TSTM COV........  
TEMP............29 33 36 38 42 43 44 44 44 42  
RH..............56 49 44 44 41 42 43 45 47 54  
20 FT WIND DIR..NE NE NE NE NE E E E E NE  
20 FT WIND SPD..9 9 9 9 8 8 7 7 6 5  
20 FT WIND GUST.14 14 14 13 13 11 10 9 9 7  
MIX HGT (KFT)...1.2 2.1 2.8 2.8 3.0 3.1 3.2 2.9 2.8 2.1  
TRANSP WIND DIR.NE NE NE E E E E E E E  
TRANSP WIND SPD.21 21 20 17 16 15 14 12 10 10  
STABILITY.......C C C C C C B B B B  
LVORI...........1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2  
ADI.............31 52 60 53 51 49 54 41 36 28  
HAINES INDEX....4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4  
VRATE MPH-FT/1K.24 43 55 48 48 47 44 33 29 22  
VENTRATE CAT....PR FR FR FR FR FR FR PR PR PR  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (25-35 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING  
MOSTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT).  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 33.  
MAX HUMIDITY........100 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS.  
MIN MIXING HGT......400 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 8 TO 10 MPH.  
MIN VENT RATE.......POOR (3037 MPH-FT).  
MAX LVORI...........8.  
MIN ADI.............4.  
HAINES INDEX........4 TO 5 OR LOW TO MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE  
PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (EST) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM  
SKY (%).........14 17 20 23 26 33 41 48 54 60 66 70  
WEATHER COV.....  
WEATHER TYPE....  
TSTM COV........  
TEMP............40 38 36 35 35 35 36 36 36 36 37 38  
RH..............64 74 82 86 90 92 89 91 94 96 96 97  
20 FT WIND DIR..NE NE NE N N N NE NE NE N N NE  
20 FT WIND SPD..4 2 1 1 2 1 2 2 2 2 2 3  
20 FT WIND GUST.5 3 2 3 3 3 3 3 3  
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4  
TRANSP WIND DIR.NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE  
TRANSP WIND SPD.10 9 9 9 9 8 8 8 8 8 8 9  
STABILITY.......F F F F F F F F F F F F  
LVORI...........3 3 4 5 6 6 6 6 6 8 8 7  
ADI.............5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4  
HAINES INDEX....4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 5  
VRATE MPH-FT/1K.5 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 4  
VENTRATE CAT....PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR  
   
SUNDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF  
RAIN SHOWERS IN THE MORNING. CHANCE OF RAIN  
SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 64.  
MIN HUMIDITY........65 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING EAST 5 TO 7 MPH LATE IN  
THE MORNING, THEN SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH AROUND  
8 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON DECREASING TO  
AROUND 7 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.  
MAX MIXING HGT......1600 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 9 TO 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST  
10 TO 16 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.  
MAX VENT RATE.......POOR (25665 MPH-FT).  
MAX LVORI...........8.  
MAX ADI.............27.  
HAINES INDEX........3 TO 5 OR VERY LOW TO MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR  
LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (EST) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM  
SKY (%).........75 75 81 90 93 91  
WEATHER COV..... S CHC S CHC S CHC CHANCE CHANCE  
WEATHER TYPE....NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR  
TSTM COV........  
TEMP............37 42 56 62 64 63  
RH..............100 100 74 66 65 71  
20 FT WIND......NE 3 NE 4 E 6 SE 7 S 8 S 8  
20 FT WIND GUST.4 7 9 11 12 11  
MIX HGT (FT)....400 300 800 1300 1300 700  
TRANSPORT WIND..NE 9 NE 10 E 13 S 15 S 15 SE 14  
STABILITY.......C D D D D D  
LVORI...........8 7 3 3 2 3  
ADI.............7 11 14 23 23 15  
HAINES INDEX....5 3 3 3 3 3  
VRATE MPH-FT/1K.4 3 10 20 20 10  
VENTRATE CAT....POOR POOR POOR POOR POOR POOR  
 

 
FORECASTER...HOEHLER  
REQUESTED BY...NATHAN BURMESTER  
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED  
.TAG 2301905.0/ILM  
.DELDT 02/04/23  
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0  
.EMAIL NATHAN.BURMESTER@TNC.ORG  
 
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