813
FNUS72 KILM 011913
FWSILM
SPOT FORECAST FOR LONGLEAF PARK BURN...NC FOREST SERVICE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
313 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2020
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1600 EDT ON AUGUST 01.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...OR IF YOU HAVE QUESTIONS
OR CONCERNS ABOUT THIS FORECAST...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN WILMINGTON AT 910-762-1374.
..HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING
DISCUSSION
SCATTERED TSTMS AND HOT AGAIN TODAY. ISAIAS WILL LIKELY BRING WIND
AND RAIN, MAINLY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT, AS IT PASSES THROUGH THE
AREA. THE TROPICAL SYSTEM SHOULD PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA TUESDAY
FOLLOWED BY A RETURN TO TYPICAL SUMMER-TIME CONDITIONS FOR MID TO
LATE WEEK.
WIND PROFILE ANALYSIS/FIRE CONTROL OVER FLAT TERRAIN IS FAVORABLE.
FOG POTENTIAL FOR TONIGHT IS NONE.
TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (20-30 PERCENT). ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING.
CHANCE OF PCPN......20 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 78.
MAX HUMIDITY........92 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 6 TO 10 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 22 MPH
EARLY IN THE EVENING. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE
EVENING.
MIN MIXING HGT......500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 6 TO 20 MPH INCREASING TO 10 TO 18
MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING.
MIN VENT RATE.......5865 MPH-FT.
MAX LVORI...........6.
MIN ADI.............5.
TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).........29 32 37 34 32 30 26 23 20 16 13 10
WEATHER COV.....ISO ISO ISO
WEATHER TYPE....RW RW RW
TSTM COV........ISO ISO ISO
TEMP............88 86 84 83 82 82 81 81 81 80 79 79
RH..............68 72 77 81 84 86 90 90 90 91 92 89
CHC PCPN (%)....20 20 20 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10
20 FT WIND DIR..SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW
20 FT WIND SPD..10 10 9 8 8 7 7 7 6 6 6 6
20 FT WIND GUST.18 17 16 16 14 14 14 14 13 11 10 10
MIX HGT (KFT)...2.2 1.9 1.3 1.2 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.5
TRANSP WIND DIR.SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW
TRANSP WIND SPD.20 20 18 17 17 16 16 16 13 10 10 12
HAINES INDEX....3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4
VR MPH-FT*1000..44 37 25 21 17 16 16 14 8 6 6 6
STABILITY.......D D E E E E E E E E F F
LVORI...........1 3 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 6 6
ADI.............40 22 12 12 12 11 11 11 8 7 5 5
APARNT TMP (F)..98 96 94 92 90 90 90 89 88 87 84 79
SFC PRES (IN)...993 993 995 995 995 995 995 995 996 996 996 996
SUNDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (5-15 PERCENT).
CHANCE OF PCPN......10 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 92.
MIN HUMIDITY........60 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 6 TO 18 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
SOUTH 7 TO 10 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON.
MAX MIXING HGT......3800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 7 TO 16 MPH.
MAX VENT RATE.......57614 MPH-FT.
MAX LVORI...........6.
MAX ADI.............54.
TIME (EDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........9 8 7 8 8 9 9 9 10 10 10 10
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TSTM COV........
TEMP............79 80 81 84 86 89 89 90 90 89 88 87
RH..............89 89 85 76 69 62 61 60 60 62 64 67
CHC PCPN (%)....10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10
20 FT WIND DIR..SW SW S S S S S S S S S S
20 FT WIND SPD..6 6 6 7 7 8 8 9 10 10 10 9
20 FT WIND GUST.10 11 11 12 13 13 14 14 16 16 16 16
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.5 0.5 1.1 1.8 2.5 3.2 3.8 3.8 3.6 3.3 2.7 2.5
TRANSP WIND DIR.SW SW SW SW SW SW SW S S S S S
TRANSP WIND SPD.10 10 15 16 15 15 15 15 16 16 16 16
HAINES INDEX....4 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5
VR MPH-FT*1000..5 5 17 29 37 48 57 57 58 53 43 41
STABILITY.......F C C C C C C D D D D D
LVORI...........6 5 4 3 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 3
ADI.............5 8 21 37 43 50 54 41 42 41 36 35
APARNT TMP (F)..83 84 88 93 95 97 99 99 100 99 98 97
SFC PRES (IN)...996 996 001 001 001 001 001 001 000 000 000 000
SUNDAY NIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (25-35 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
MOSTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE EVENING.
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER
MIDNIGHT, THEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY
EARLY IN THE MORNING.
CHANCE OF PCPN......60 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 78.
MAX HUMIDITY........93 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 7 TO 16 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LATE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
MIN MIXING HGT......700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 7 TO 17 MPH.
MIN VENT RATE.......8164 MPH-FT.
MAX LVORI...........5.
MIN ADI.............9.
TIME (EDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM
SKY (%).........13 19 29 39 48 60
WEATHER COV..... S CHC S CHC CHANCE CHANCE
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
TSTM COV........ S CHC S CHC CHANCE CHANCE
TEMP............86 83 82 81 80 79
RH..............71 78 82 85 87 91
CHC PCPN (%)....10 10 20 20 30 50
20 FT WIND......S 9 S 8 S 7 S 7 S 7 S 7
20 FT WIND GUST.14 13 13 12 12 12
MIX HGT (FT)....2400 1800 1800 1300 1000 800
TRANSPORT WIND..S 17 S 17 S 16 S 16 S 14 S 12
HAINES INDEX....5 5 5 5 5 5
VR MPH-FT*1000..41 32 28 21 14 10
STABILITY.......D E E E D D
LVORI...........3 4 4 4 4 5
ADI.............37 12 11 11 12 11
APARNT TMP (F)..95 91 89 87 86 79
SFC PRES (IN)...30.00 30.01 30.01 30.01 30.00 30.00
MONDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY EARLY IN THE MORNING, THEN
SHOWERS AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN
THE MORNING.
CHANCE OF PCPN......80 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 87.
MIN HUMIDITY........69 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 6 TO 17 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH
LATE IN THE MORNING. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX MIXING HGT......4100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 6 TO 17 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST 16
TO 21 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING.
MAX VENT RATE.......85330 MPH-FT.
MAX LVORI...........5.
MAX ADI.............58.
TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM
SKY (%).........72 84 83 82 81 87
WEATHER COV.....LIKELY DEFNTE DEFNTE DEFNTE DEFNTE DEFNTE
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
TSTM COV........LIKELY CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE
TEMP............79 81 81 84 85 86
RH..............91 87 84 75 71 69
CHC PCPN (%)....60 80 80 80 80 80
20 FT WIND......S 7 S 6 S 9 S 11 S 12 S 13
20 FT WIND GUST.12 11 14 18 19 19
MIX HGT (FT)....800 1000 2000 3000 4100 2300
TRANSPORT WIND..S 12 SE 13 S 15 S 18 SE 21 SE 18
HAINES INDEX....5 4 4 4 4 4
VR MPH-FT*1000..9 13 30 55 85 42
STABILITY.......D D D D D D
LVORI...........5 4 4 3 3 3
ADI.............10 17 28 43 58 38
APARNT TMP (F)..79 87 88 93 94 95
SFC PRES (IN)...30.00 30.02 30.02 30.02 29.97 29.97
FORECASTER...OLIVA
REQUESTED BY...JOSHUA JOHNSTON
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2010271.0/ILM
.DELDT 08/01/20
.EMAIL JOSHUA.JOHNSTON@NCAGR.GOV
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