079  
FNUS72 KILM 091142  
FWSILM  
 
SPOT FORECAST FOR TF10...TWIN CREEKS  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC  
742 AM EDT FRI APR 9 2021  
 
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0900 EDT ON APRIL 09.  
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...OR IF YOU HAVE QUESTIONS  
OR CONCERNS ABOUT THIS FORECAST...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER  
SERVICE IN WILMINGTON AT 910-762-1374.  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
ANY WIND-SHIFT AT THE BURN SITE FROM THE SEA BREEZE, WILL NOT BE A  
LARGE DIFFERENCE IN DIRECTION FROM THE PREVAILING SYNOPTIC WIND, BUT  
LOOK FOR S WINDS TO INCREASE IN AFTERNOON, WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTINESS.  
 
WIND PROFILE ANALYSIS/FIRE CONTROL OVER FLAT TERRAIN IS FAVORABLE.  
 
FOG POTENTIAL FOR TONIGHT IS LOW.  
   
REST OF TODAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (40-50 PERCENT).  
CHANCE OF PCPN......10 PERCENT.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 79.  
MIN HUMIDITY........50 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTH 5 TO 9 MPH IN THE  
AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTS TO 18 MPH.  
MAX MIXING HGT......4900 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 5 TO 14 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH 15  
TO 20 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.  
MAX VENT RATE.......FAIR (51869 MPH-FT).  
MAX LVORI...........4.  
MAX ADI.............37.  
HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR VERY LOW TO LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE  
PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (EDT) 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM  
SKY (%).........48 44 40 44 48 52 52 51 51  
WEATHER COV.....  
WEATHER TYPE....  
TSTM COV........  
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 10 10 10 10 10 10 10  
TEMP............68 72 75 77 78 79 78 77 76  
RH..............81 70 62 57 55 53 55 57 59  
APARNT TMP (F)..68 72 75 77 78 79 78 77 76  
20 FT WIND DIR..SW SW SW SW S S S S S  
20 FT WIND SPD..4 4 4 5 6 7 8 8 9  
20 FT WIND GUST.6 7 7 9 11 13 13 14 14  
MIX HGT (KFT)...1.0 1.4 2.4 4.0 4.9 4.6 3.8 2.9 2.0  
TRANSP WIND DIR.SW W W SW SW SW S S S  
TRANSP WIND SPD.7 7 6 6 6 7 14 15 16  
STABILITY.......B C C C C D D D D  
LVORI...........4 3 2 2 2 2 1 1 1  
ADI.............9 13 16 22 23 20 37 35 31  
HAINES INDEX....3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4  
VRATE MPH-FT/1K.7 10 14 23 28 32 52 43 31  
VENTRATE CAT....PR PR PR PR PR PR FR FR PR  
SFC PRES (IN)...002 002 002 002 002 000 000 000 000  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF  
THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE EVENING. SLIGHT  
CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE IN THE EVENING.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......20 PERCENT.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 61.  
MAX HUMIDITY........93 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 6 TO 16 MPH BECOMING LIGHT. GUSTY  
AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS  
LATE IN THE EVENING.  
MIN MIXING HGT......300 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 5 TO 16 MPH DECREASING TO 5 TO 6 MPH LATE  
IN THE EVENING, THEN BECOMING LIGHT OVERNIGHT  
BECOMING SOUTHWEST 5 TO 8 MPH OVERNIGHT.  
MIN VENT RATE.......POOR (1556 MPH-FT).  
MAX LVORI...........7.  
MIN ADI.............2.  
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED  
FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM  
SKY (%).........55 59 63 63 63 63 60 57 54 53 52 51  
WEATHER COV..... SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH  
WEATHER TYPE.... RW RW RW RW RW RW RW  
TSTM COV........ SCH SCH SCH  
CHC OF PCPN (%).10 10 10 10 10 20 20 20 20 20 20 20  
TEMP............73 71 68 67 66 65 65 64 64 63 63 63  
RH..............65 71 79 79 84 90 91 91 92 92 92 93  
APARNT TMP (F)..73 71 68 67 66 65 65 64 64 63 63 63  
20 FT WIND DIR..S S S S S S S SW SW SW S S  
20 FT WIND SPD..7 6 5 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 2 2  
20 FT WIND GUST.12 10 7 7 6 10 10 10 9 9 8 8  
MIX HGT (KFT)...1.4 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.3  
TRANSP WIND DIR.S S S S S S S S SW S SW SW  
TRANSP WIND SPD.16 16 13 13 12 6 5 3 5 8 5 5  
STABILITY.......D E E E E E F F F F F F  
LVORI...........3 3 4 4 5 6 6 7 6 6 6 6  
ADI.............26 11 8 8 8 4 2 2 2 4 2 2  
HAINES INDEX....4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4  
VRATE MPH-FT/1K.23 15 10 8 7 3 2 2 2 4 2 2  
VENTRATE CAT....PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR  
SFC PRES (IN)...000 000 002 002 002 002 002 002 003 003 003 003  
   
SATURDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (50-60 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF  
SHOWERS EARLY IN THE MORNING. SLIGHT CHANCE OF  
SHOWERS IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.  
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE  
MORNING.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......20 PERCENT.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 77.  
MIN HUMIDITY........65 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 8 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING  
BECOMING LIGHT, THEN BECOMING SOUTH 5 TO 11 MPH  
IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND  
ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS LATE  
IN THE MORNING.  
MAX MIXING HGT......3300 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 5 TO 11 MPH INCREASING TO 15 TO 18 MPH  
LATE IN THE MORNING.  
MAX VENT RATE.......FAIR (56481 MPH-FT).  
MAX LVORI...........6.  
MAX ADI.............53.  
HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR VERY LOW TO LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE  
PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM  
SKY (%).........55 64 57 52 47 52  
WEATHER COV.....S CHC S CHC S CHC S CHC S CHC  
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR  
TSTM COV........ S CHC S CHC S CHC  
CHC OF PCPN (%).20 10 20 20 20 20  
TEMP............63 64 69 73 75 74  
RH..............92 92 77 69 65 68  
APARNT TMP (F)..63 64 69 73 75 74  
20 FT WIND......S 2 S 3 S 5 S 8 S 10 S 10  
20 FT WIND GUST.8 10 12 14 14 17  
MIX HGT (FT)....300 700 1600 2600 3300 2600  
TRANSPORT WIND..SW 5 SW 9 S 10 S 16 S 17 S 18  
STABILITY.......F C D D D D  
LVORI...........6 5 3 3 1 1  
ADI.............2 7 18 36 43 40  
HAINES INDEX....4 3 3 3 3 3  
VRATE MPH-FT/1K.2 6 17 42 56 47  
VENTRATE CAT....POOR POOR POOR FAIR FAIR FAIR  
SFC PRES (IN)...30.03 30.02 30.02 30.02 29.95 29.95  
 

 
 
FORECASTER...COLBY  
REQUESTED BY...B BARNHILL  
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED  
.TAG 2108360.1/ILM  
.DELDT 04/09/21  
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0  
.EMAIL BRIANBARNHILL910@YAHOO.COM  
 
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