207  
FNUS72 KILM 181136  
FWSILM  
 
SPOT FORECAST FOR TF10...TWIN CREEKS LAND & FOREST MANAGEMENT LLC  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC  
736 AM EDT THU APR 18 2019  
 
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0900 EDT ON APRIL 18.  
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...OR IF YOU HAVE QUESTIONS  
OR CONCERNS ABOUT THIS FORECAST...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER  
SERVICE IN WILMINGTON AT 910-762-1374.  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
BROTAK WIND PROFILE CONDITIONS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON.  
 
FLOW AROUND HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL OFFER WARM TEMPERATURES  
TODAY THRU FRI. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING AN INCREASING  
THREAT OF STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRI AFTERNOON  
AND EVENING. EXPECT BREEZY TO WINDY (COASTAL AREAS) SOUTHERLY FLOW  
DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT THRU FRIDAY. AFTER THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE  
FRI NIGHT, A DRYING TREND WITH SLOWLY DIMINISHING WINDS IS  
EXPECTED THRU LATE SAT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA  
FROM THE SOUTH SUN WITH IT'S CENTER MOVING ACROSS AND OFFSHORE  
EARLY NEXT WEEK. WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU  
THE MID-WEEK PERIOD OF NEXT WEEK.  
 
WIND PROFILE ANALYSIS/FIRE CONTROL OVER FLAT TERRAIN IS FAVORABLE.  
 
FOG POTENTIAL FOR TONIGHT...NONE.  
   
TODAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (25-35 PERCENT).  
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 80.  
MIN HUMIDITY........60 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTH 5 TO 12 MPH IN THE  
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.  
MAX MIXING HGT......4100 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 2 TO 3 MPH INCREASING TO 18 TO 23 MPH IN  
THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.  
MAX VENT RATE.......91540 MPH-FT.  
MAX LVORI...........7.  
MAX ADI.............66.  
 
TIME (EDT) 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM  
SKY (%).........29 32 38 37 37 37 38 39 40  
WEATHER COV.....  
WEATHER TYPE....  
TSTM COV........  
TEMP............67 72 75 76 77 77 76 76 75  
RH..............76 69 64 61 60 60 60 62 65  
CHC PCPN (%)....0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0  
20 FT WIND DIR..S S S S S S S S S  
20 FT WIND SPD..4 5 7 9 10 11 12 12 12  
20 FT WIND GUST.7 10 10 13 14 16 18 18 18  
MIX HGT (KFT)...1.4 2.5 3.6 3.8 4.0 4.1 4.1 4.0 4.0  
TRANSP WIND DIR.S S S S S S S S S  
TRANSP WIND SPD.20 20 18 20 21 22 22 23 23  
HAINES INDEX....4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4  
VR MPH-FT*1000..27 49 68 75 83 92 91 91 90  
STABILITY.......C C C D D D D D D  
LVORI...........3 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1  
ADI.............34 56 66 53 58 62 62 63 63  
APARNT TMP (F)..67 72 75 76 77 77 76 76 75  
SFC PRES (IN)...008 008 008 008 008 002 002 002 002  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING  
MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF  
SHOWERS EARLY IN THE MORNING.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......20 PERCENT.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 68.  
MAX HUMIDITY........93 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 9 TO 11 MPH.  
MIN MIXING HGT......500 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 21 TO 24 MPH DECREASING TO 12 TO 14 MPH  
IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.  
MIN VENT RATE.......7129 MPH-FT.  
MAX LVORI...........5.  
MIN ADI.............12.  
 
TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM  
SKY (%).........41 42 43 48 53 58 64 69 74 74 75 75  
WEATHER COV..... SCH SCH SCH  
WEATHER TYPE.... RW RW RW  
TSTM COV........  
TEMP............73 71 70 69 69 69 69 70 70 70 70 70  
RH..............68 73 78 80 82 83 84 84 85 86 87 88  
CHC PCPN (%)....0 0 0 10 10 10 10 10 10 20 20 20  
20 FT WIND DIR..S S S S S S S S S S S S  
20 FT WIND SPD..11 10 9 9 9 9 9 10 11 11 11 11  
20 FT WIND GUST.17 14 14 12 12 12 13 14 16 14 14 16  
MIX HGT (KFT)...3.0 2.0 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8  
TRANSP WIND DIR.S S S S S S S S S S S S  
TRANSP WIND SPD.23 24 21 12 12 12 12 13 14 14 14 14  
HAINES INDEX....4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3  
VR MPH-FT*1000..69 47 21 11 10 8 8 8 7 8 9 11  
STABILITY.......D D D D D D D D D D D D  
LVORI...........1 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 5 4  
ADI.............55 32 19 20 24 31 22 12 12 12 12 13  
APARNT TMP (F)..73 71 70 69 69 69 69 70 70 70 70 70  
SFC PRES (IN)...002 002 996 996 996 996 996 996 986 986 986 986  
   
FRIDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). CHANCE OF  
SHOWERS EARLY IN THE MORNING, THEN SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY EARLY IN THE MORNING.  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE  
AFTERNOON.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......80 PERCENT.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 78.  
MIN HUMIDITY........74 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 12 TO 21 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH  
INCREASING TO 33 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY  
AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS  
EARLY IN THE MORNING.  
MAX MIXING HGT......2600 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 15 TO 17 MPH INCREASING TO 43 TO 47 MPH.  
MAX VENT RATE.......122934 MPH-FT.  
MAX LVORI...........5.  
MAX ADI.............105.  
 
TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM  
SKY (%).........76 90 86 82 80 80  
WEATHER COV.....CHANCE LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY DEFNTE DEFNTE  
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR  
TSTM COV........ LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY DEFNTE DEFNTE  
TEMP............69 70 73 75 77 77  
RH..............93 93 86 79 76 74  
CHC PCPN (%)....30 70 70 70 80 80  
20 FT WIND......S 12 S 14 S 15 S 17 S 21 S 20  
20 FT WIND GUST.18 18 21 24 26 26  
MIX HGT (FT)....800 700 1400 2100 2600 2400  
TRANSPORT WIND..S 15 S 17 S 37 S 40 S 47 S 46  
HAINES INDEX....3 3 3 3 3 3  
VR MPH-FT*1000..11 12 53 84 123 113  
STABILITY.......D D D D D D  
LVORI...........5 5 4 3 3 3  
ADI.............13 19 58 79 105 99  
APARNT TMP (F)..69 70 73 75 77 77  
SFC PRES (IN)...29.86 29.77 29.77 29.77 29.64 29.64  
 

 
FORECASTER...COLBY  
REQUESTED BY...BRIAN BARNHILL  
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED  
.TAG 1905411.2/ILM  
.DELDT 04/18/19  
.EMAIL BRIANBARNHILL910@YAHOO.COM  
 
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