023
FNUS72 KILM 111049
FWSILM
SPOT FORECAST FOR BLACK RIVER RX...TNC
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
649 AM EDT WED MAR 11 2026
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0700 EDT ON MARCH 11.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...OR IF YOU HAVE QUESTIONS
OR CONCERNS ABOUT THIS FORECAST...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN WILMINGTON AT 910-762-1374.
DISCUSSION
WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY. INLAND LOCATIONS COULD
BREAK RECORD HIGHS. A RELATIVELY STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
BRING GUSTY WINDS, SHOWERS, AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY. COOLER
AND DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW THE COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
BRING RENEWED CHANCES FOR RAIN LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
WIND PROFILE ANALYSIS/FIRE CONTROL OVER FLAT TERRAIN IS FAVORABLE.
FOG POTENTIAL FOR TONIGHT IS NONE.
REST OF TODAY
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (10-20 PERCENT).
CHANCE OF THUNDER...0 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 88.
MIN HUMIDITY........52 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST 5 TO 10 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND 19 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON.
MAX MIXING HGT......5700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 10 TO 18 MPH INCREASING TO 22 TO 24
MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX VENT RATE.......EXCELLENT (125681 MPH-FT).
MAX LVORI...........6.
MAX ADI.............97.
TIME (EDT) 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........7 11 11 7 17 14 11 8 11 14 18
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TSTM COV........
CHC OF THDR (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
TEMP............62 63 68 73 77 80 83 85 85 84 83
RH..............96 96 86 77 68 61 56 52 53 53 55
20 FT WIND DIR..S SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW S S
20 FT WIND SPD..2 1 2 5 6 8 9 10 10 10 10
20 FT WIND GUST.4 3 4 8 10 14 15 18 19 19 18
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.5 0.5 0.8 1.2 1.6 3.1 4.5 5.7 5.1 4.6 3.5
TRANSP WIND DIR.SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW
TRANSP WIND SPD.10 10 10 12 13 15 18 22 23 24 23
STABILITY.......A A B B B B B C C C C
LVORI...........6 6 5 3 3 1 1 1 1 1 1
ADI.............10 10 12 18 27 57 97 96 96 96 80
VRATE MPH-FT/1K.5 5 9 14 21 46 82 126 118 110 80
VENTRATE CAT....PR PR PR PR PR FR GD VGD VGD VGD GD
SFC PRES (IN)...000 002 002 002 005 005 005 999 999 999 993
TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
MOSTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
PARTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT).
CHANCE OF THUNDER...0 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 65.
MAX HUMIDITY........92 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 7 TO 9 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 18
MPH.
MIN MIXING HGT......800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 18 TO 24 MPH.
MIN VENT RATE.......POOR (14491 MPH-FT).
MAX LVORI...........4.
MIN ADI.............12.
TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).........28 38 48 51 54 58 57 56 56 53 51 49
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TSTM COV........
CHC OF THDR (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
TEMP............81 77 73 73 72 71 71 70 70 69 68 68
RH..............58 65 70 72 74 76 79 81 82 84 85 86
20 FT WIND DIR..S S S S S S S SW SW SW SW SW
20 FT WIND SPD..9 9 7 7 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 7
20 FT WIND GUST.18 15 13 14 14 14 14 14 13 13 13 14
MIX HGT (KFT)...2.6 0.8 0.9 1.1 1.2 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.3 1.4 1.4
TRANSP WIND DIR.S S SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW
TRANSP WIND SPD.21 18 20 20 18 20 20 24 23 22 21 20
STABILITY.......E E D D D D D D D D D D
LVORI...........2 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4
ADI.............14 12 18 18 16 22 22 27 26 20 23 22
VRATE MPH-FT/1K.53 14 18 21 22 27 28 37 34 29 28 28
VENTRATE CAT....FR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR
SFC PRES (IN)...993 993 993 993 993 992 992 992 988 988 988 982
THURSDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS
LIKELY IN THE MORNING. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY. RAIN SHOWERS IN
THE AFTERNOON.
CHANCE OF THUNDER...20 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 74.
MIN HUMIDITY........75 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 7 TO 12 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
NORTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS UP TO 23 MPH.
GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON.
MAX MIXING HGT......3000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 17 TO 24 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST 29
TO 30 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING, THEN SHIFTING TO
THE NORTH 28 TO 37 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX VENT RATE.......GOOD (92764 MPH-FT).
MAX LVORI...........4.
MAX ADI.............97.
TIME (EDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........58 68 77 77 77 77 81 86 92 94 94 94
WEATHER COV..... SCH CHC CHC LKY LKY DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF
WEATHER TYPE.... RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW
TSTM COV........ SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
CHC OF THDR (%).0 0 10 10 10 20 20 20 20 20 20 0
TEMP............67 67 66 68 70 72 70 67 64 60 56 52
RH..............89 90 92 89 85 81 80 80 84 82 80 78
20 FT WIND DIR..SW S S SW SW SW W NW NW NW N N
20 FT WIND SPD..7 7 7 8 9 12 12 12 12 12 12 12
20 FT WIND GUST.13 13 13 14 15 18 19 20 20 20 20 19
MIX HGT (KFT)...1.5 1.5 1.5 2.2 2.6 3.0 2.8 2.5 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5
TRANSP WIND DIR.SW SW SW SW SW SW SW W NW NW N N
TRANSP WIND SPD.20 17 20 24 24 30 30 29 28 31 33 37
STABILITY.......D D B C C C C C D D D D
LVORI...........4 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 4 3 3 3
ADI.............32 28 39 63 71 97 92 82 56 64 72 80
VRATE MPH-FT/1K.29 26 30 52 62 91 83 72 61 71 81 93
VENTRATE CAT....PR PR PR FR GD GD GD GD GD GD GD GD
SFC PRES (IN)...982 982 981 981 981 982 982 982 976 976 976 996
FORECASTER...BAKER
REQUESTED BY...WEST
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2605414.0/ILM
.DELDT 03/11/26
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
.EMAIL ZWEST@TNC.ORG
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