796
FXUS62 KCAE 270003
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
803 PM EDT MON OCT 26 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 00Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THIS WEEK WITH GRADUALLY WARMING
TEMPERATURES.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THIS WEEK WITH GRADUALLY
WARMING TEMPERATURES.
TUESDAY MORNING SHOULD BE THE COOLEST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 40S TO START THE DAY. A FEW OF THE
TYPICALLY COOLER SPOTS COULD DIP INTO THE MID OR UPPER 30S.
ALTHOUGH THE COOLEST OF SPOTS COULD SEE SOME FROST, WE DO NOT
EXPECT WIDESPREAD FROST TO THREATEN SENSITIVE PLANTS.
MINIMAL CHANGE IN THE OVERALL FORECAST THINKING WITH THE EXTENDED DRY
PERIOD CONTINUING MOST LIKELY THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH. UPPER
RIDGE WILL SLOWLY TRANSLATE EAST THROUGH THE WEEK AND FLATTEN OUT BY
THURSDAY, WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE
NORTHEAST AND RIDGES SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS WILL
RESULT IN SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES EACH DAY WITH FAIRLY HIGH
CONFIDENCE GIVEN VERY SMALL NBM IQRS THROUGH SATURDAY. TONIGHT THERE
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S, MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF I-20. THIS IS MAINLY DUE TO WEAKER
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS AND SOME DRIER AIR AT THE SURFACE, RESULTING
IN THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FROST IN NORMALLY COLD/SHELTERED
LOCATIONS. THE THREAT IS NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT A
FROST ADVISORY AT THIS TIME, BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
TRENDS. OTHERWISE, EXPECT A CONTINUATION OF WARM DAYS AND COOL
NIGHTS THIS WEEK. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH ABOVE NORMAL VALUES
BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE PATTERN STARTS TO SHOW SOME SIGNS
OF SHIFTING, WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN RETURNING TO THE
FORECAST FOR THE FIRST DAY OF NOVEMBER.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
WINDS HAVE TAMED A BIT BECOMING LIGHT WITH HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS
OFF TO THE WEST. FEW TO SCT CIRRUS SHOULD MOVE IN INTO THE
OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THAT CONTINUE INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. NO FOG IS EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT WITH DRY
CONDITIONS CONTINUING. BY THE MID MORNING TUESDAY, MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHEAST ARE EXPECTED,
CONTINUING THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT AVIATION CONCERNS
THROUGH THE WEEK. A FEW HIGH VFR CLOUDS MAY MOVE IN WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY DUE TO ONSHORE FLOW, BUT OTHERWISE DRY.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CJR
AVIATION...NS
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