344
FXUS62 KCAE 220000
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
800 PM EDT TUE JUL 21 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
REMOVED TODAY VERBIAGE FROM KEY MESSAGE AND UPDATED FOR RECENT
CONVECTIVE TRENDS. 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. A SLOW-MOVING FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE TOMORROW INTO
THURSDAY, BRINGING SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD RAIN/STORM CHANCES.
ACTIVE WEATHER PERSISTS INTO THE LATE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: A SLOW-MOVING FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE TOMORROW
INTO THURSDAY, BRINGING SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD RAIN/STORM
CHANCES. ACTIVE WEATHER PERSISTS INTO THE LATE WEEK.
RADAR THIS EVENING SHOWS A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MOVING INTO THE NORTHWESTERN MIDLANDS. A FEW OTHER SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POPPING UP ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY IN
THE SOUTHEASTERN MIDLANDS. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH
QUICKLY WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND REMAIN BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS WITH A QUIET, ALBEIT MUGGY, OVERNIGHT PERIOD EXPECTED
AND FORECAST LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
A WEAK FRONT WILL SETTLE TOWARD THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY, BRINGING
INCREASING LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND IMPROVED LARGE-SCALE
FORCING. HOWEVER, GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND TOWARD A SLOWER
FRONTAL PROGRESSION, RESULTING IN A SLIGHTLY WARMER FORECAST
WITH ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION EXPECTED DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON. RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES IN. THE PRIMARY
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS THE LATER TIMING, WHICH WOULD REDUCE THE
OVERLAP BETWEEN THE STRONGEST FORCING AND PEAK INSTABILITY. IF
TRENDS CONTINUE, THE SEVERE THREAT MAY CONTINUE TO DIMINISH.
AS THE FRONT STALLS OUT ON THURSDAY, ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONGER
CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP. REGARDLESS, THE GREATER CONCERN APPEARS
TO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL FROM LATE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. PWATS EXCEEDING 2" AND RELATIVELY SKINNY CAPE
PROFILES WILL FAVOR EFFICIENT RAINFALL RATES, WHILE THE STALLED
BOUNDARY COULD SUPPORT TRAINING CONVECTION. THE ECMWF REMAINS
THE MOST AGGRESSIVE SOLUTION, WITH THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT
SUPPORTING A HEAVY RAINFALL SETUP. THAT SAID, IT REMAINS
UNCOMMON FOR A FRONT TO PUSH THIS FAR SOUTH IN LATE JULY, SO
CONTINUED DOWNTRENDS ARE ANTICIPATED BUT THIS WILL BE MONITORED.
THE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO LINGER ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
THROUGH FRIDAY, AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES MAINTAINING
SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES INTO THE WEEKEND, BUT THE OVERALL
PATTERN REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH THE 24 HR TAF PERIOD.
SHORTWAVE MOVING NORTHWARD AND INTO THE WESTERN MIDLANDS, ALONG
WITH SOME SEA-BREEZE ACTIVITY, COULD BRING A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS TO THE CENTRAL MIDLANDS THROUGH 02Z. MENTIONED A PROB30
AT CAE/CUB/OGB, AND CAN NOT RULE OUT A BRIEF LOW END VFR OR
UPPER END MVFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTION IF A HEAVIER SHOWER
IMPACTS ANY OF THOSE SITES. OUTSIDE RAIN, CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN VFR. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS EVENING, MAINLY
IN THE UPPER LEVELS AS CONVECTIVE BLOW-OFF FROM STORMS ALONG A
SLOWLY MOVING COLD FRONT WELL OFF TO OUR NORTH STREAMS INTO OUR
REGION. THIS SHOULD KEEP ANY VISIBILITY ISSUES LATE TONIGHT TO A
MINIMUM, ESPECIALLY SINCE WINDS WILL NOT GO CALM OVERNIGHT
EITHER AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHWARD. THE
FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO OUR NORTH THROUGH THE END
OF THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD. WINDS ON WEDNESDAY WILL ONCE AGAIN
PICK BACK UP AND BECOME RATHER GUSTY BY LATE MORNING, WITH GUSTS
BACK OVER 20 KTS POSSIBLE. MUCH OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE TAF SITES
THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS FROM SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE THIS
WEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...7/ND
AVIATION...73
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