342
FXUS62 KCAE 020006
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
806 PM EDT THU OCT 1 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
A DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN
MIDLANDS WITH VISIBILITIES LESS THAN 1/4 MILE POSSIBLE TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 00Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. AREAS OF DENSE FOG POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
- 2. MOSTLY DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH
FRIDAY.
- 3. INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN THIS WEEKEND AS A FRONT
APPROACHES THE AREA.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: AREAS OF DENSE FOG POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING.
AREAS OF DENSE FOG ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING'S
COMMUTE WITH INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH, CALM WINDS, AND
CLEAR SKIES. THIS WILL ALLOW LOW-LEVEL STRATUS AND POSSIBLE
DENSE FOG TO FORM WITH VISIBILITIES AS LOW AS 1/4 MILE TONIGHT
MAINLY IN SOUTHEASTERN MIDLANDS. IT IS UNCERTAIN HOW DENSE OR
WIDESPREAD THE FOG WILL BECOME. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST IN THE FAR
SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE FA WITH LESS CERTAINTY FURTHER
NORTHWEST.
KEY MESSAGE 2: MOSTLY DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TOWARDS THE END OF
THE WEEK LEADING TO ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AS 500 MB HEIGHTS
WILL RISE TO NEAR 1.5 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL
BASED ON ENSEMBLE MEANS. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO HIGHS NEARLY
10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, IN THE LOW 90S AS OCTOBER BEGINS
UNSEASONABLE WARM. WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING OFFSHORE,
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE, ALTHOUGH FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE A LAYER OF SUBSTANTIAL DRY AIR IN PLACE THAT
WILL PRECLUDE ANY RAIN TODAY. AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN
AND THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE, ESPECIALLY IN
THE SOUTH, SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS A POSSIBLY A STRAY STORM
REMAINS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON BUT MUCH OF THE AREA IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY.
KEY MESSAGE 3: INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN THIS WEEKEND AS A
FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA.
THERE REMAINS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY AS IT PERTAINS TO THE
PROGRESSION OF A FRONT THROUGH THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. LREF
CONTINUES TO TREND WITH PWATS GREATER THAN 2 INCHES AS DEEP
MOISTURE BUILDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WHILE FORCING WILL BE
GENERALLY WEAK, ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY, WEAKNESSES IN THE RIDGE
AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD RAIN
CHANCES SATURDAY CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY. MODELS AND ENSEMBLES
SHOW LARGE SPLIT IN TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH AN AXIS OF HEAVIER RAIN LIKELY IN THE AREA. LREF STILL
CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNIFICANT SPREAD FROM AROUND 1" TO 2.5"
BETWEEN THE 25TH TO 75TH PERCENTILE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
DRIER AIR WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN AREA
MONDAY. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS HOW DEEP THE TROUGH DIGS
SOUTH. AT THE SURFACE, THE COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO MOVE THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING, BUT HOW FAR SOUTH IS UNCERTAIN. SHOWERS MAY
LINGER THROUGH MID-WEEK IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST FA DEPENDING ON THE
FRONT POSITION ALTHOUGH DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN PLACE ONCE THE
FRONT PASSES.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM ROUGHLY 08Z FRIDAY BEFORE FOG-
STRATUS IMPACTS ALL TERMINALS.
CALM AND CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING
BEFORE FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOPS WITHIN THE ELEVATED COASTAL
MOISTURE. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST IN FOG-STRATUS PRIMARILY AT
OGB, WITH CONSISTENT LIFR CONDITIONS LIKELY AFTER 10Z THROUGH
14Z. THE OTHER REMAINING TAF SITES WILL LIKELY HUG THE FRINGES
OF THE DENSE FOG EXTENT AS MOISTURE WILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT FAR
INLAND. BUT SOME PERIODIC ISSUES ARE LIKELY FOR THE OTHER TAF
SITES, ESPECIALLY AGS AND AIKEN. SO TEMPO GROUPS ARE INCLUDED
FOR THE TIME BEING GIVEN THE LOWER CONFIDENCE. FOG SHOULD LIFT
TO STRATUS AND STEADILY CLEAR OUT TO MVFR-VFR BY LATE MORNING.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
THIS WEEKEND MAY LEAD TO ADDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 10 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR SCZ035-
037-038-041-135>137.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...NS
AVIATION...42
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