383
FXUS62 KCAE 271728
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
128 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. AVIATION DISCUSSION
UPDATED FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. DRIER CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO START NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED EACH DAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. DRIER CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO START NEXT WEEK.
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK COMPARED TO WHAT WE HAVE BEEN
ADVERTISING THE PAST FEW DAYS. WE DID HAVE SOME SURPRISE
CONVECTION THIS MORNING WHICH HAS DIMINISHED ACROSS THE AREA.
CUMULUS HAS REPLACED STRATUS FROM EARLIER, AND WITHIN A WARMING
AND VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE, EXPECTING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. TROUGHING TO OUR
WEST SHOULD HELP BE A WEAK FORCING MECHANISM, AND >2" PWS SHOULD
YIELD HEAVY, EFFICIENT RAINFALL IN THE STRONGEST STORMS. NOT
REALLY EXPECTING SEVERE WEATHER TODAY AS DCAPE AND TEI VALUES
ARE UNIMPRESSIVE IN A VERY MOISTURE RICH ATMOSPHERE. WILL BE
RELYING PRIMARILY ON MOISTURE LOADING FOR ANY SEVERE STORMS. THE
PERSISTENT TROUGH IS FORECAST TO HANG AROUND THROUGH ABOUT
SATURDAY, WITH A DEEP PLUME OF MOISTURE ATOP THE AREA ON FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY STILL. AS A RESULT, SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED BOTH DAYS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. HIGH PWS CAN AND SHOULD RESULT IN CONTINUED HEAVY
RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA, WHICH HAS RESULT IN PARTS OF THE AREA
BEING INCLUDED IN A MARGINAL AND SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL THROUGH SATURDAY. FLASH FLOODING LIKELY WON'T BE A
WIDESPREAD ISSUE BUT STORMS SHOULD BE EFFICIENT ENOUGH AT
PRODUCING RAINFALL TO MAKE ANY TRAINING OR SLOW MOVERS CAPABLE
OF FLASH FLOODING.
AS WE GET LATER INTO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK, CONFIDENCE
CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING
OVERHEAD AND PERSISTING. THIS 500 HPA RIDGE SHOULD YIELD ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES BEGINNING MONDAY AND PERSISTING THROUGH THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. IT IS UNLIKELY THAT WE WILL SEE
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO HELP KEEP TEMPS DOWN DURING THIS
PERIOD AS UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE BENEATH THE RIDGE CENTER SHOULD
HOLD CONVECTION MOSTLY AT BAY. GIVEN THIS, THE POTENTIAL FOR
ANOMALOUS HEAT IS RISING. HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S APPEAR
POSSIBLE, AS SIGNALED BY A PRETTY ROBUST EFI SIGNAL AT THIS
TIMEFRAME. GIVEN CONSISTENT DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S, DANGEROUS HEAT
INDEX VALUES ARE AGAIN FORECAST TO RETURN TO THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THIS PERIOD, ESPECIALLY TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY OF NEXT
WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON, BECOMING NUMEROUS IN COVERAGE INTO THIS EVENING
ACROSS THE AREA. TAFS CONTINUE TO INDICATE VICINITY
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 02Z, WITH EITHER A PROB30 OR TEMPO GROUP
FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH SOME FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ONCE
AGAIN OVERNIGHT, BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT GREAT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE
MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. ANOTHER ROUND OF CEILING
RESTRICTIONS AND POSSIBLY SOME VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AGAIN LATER TONIGHT DUE TO THE MOIST LOW LEVEL AIRMASS
AND NEARBY STALLED FRONT, SO HAVE A PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS AT
ALL TERMINALS FROM ABOUT 09-14Z.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...PL
AVIATION...JAQ
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