249
FXUS62 KCAE 031721
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
121 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE WITH THE HIGHEST HEAT INDEX
VALUES EXPECTED SATURDAY. AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 18Z
TAF ISSUANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. HEAT INDEX VALUES FROM 105 TO 110 POSSIBLE SATURDAY.
- 2. SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1. HEAT INDEX VALUES FROM 105 TO 110 POSSIBLE
SATURDAY.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SHIFTS TO THE WEST LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO
THE WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR NW DOWNSLOPE FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH. MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WITH PWAT VALUES NEARING OR EXCEEDING THE 90TH
PERCENTILE OF THE NAEFS CLIMATOLOGY. THE WARM, MOIST AIR MASS
AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL PUSH HEAT INDEX VALUES TO NEAR 110
DURING THE AFTERNOON ASSUMING STORMS HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER IN THE
DAY AS CURRENTLY EXPECTED. IF THIS HOLDS, A HEAT ADVISORY MAY
BE NEEDED FOR SATURDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2. SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR
EVENING.
AS THE UPPER RIDGING RETROGRADES TO THE WEST A NW FLOW PATTERN
ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO DIG INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL TRIGGER CONVECTION IN
THE WARM, MOIST AIR MASS UPSTREAM OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE
CONCERN IS THAT AS STORMS PUSH SOUTH AND EAST IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THAT STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DRY MID-LEVEL
AIR WILL FAVOR DAMAGING WINDS. THE PROGRESSION OF THE STORMS AND
THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE
SOMETHING TO MONITOR OVER THE COMING DAYS.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH THE COLD FRONT
FORECAST TO BE OVER THE SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY WE CAN EXPECT AT
LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH MOISTURE STILL
IN PLACE AND SOME SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY MOVING THROUGH THE TROUGH.
HOWEVER, WITH LAPSE RATES NOT AS STRONG AS SATURDAY, THE THREAT
OF SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD BE LOW. NEXT WEEK IS EXPECTED TO YIELD
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH CONTINUING AT LEAST ISOLATED
CHANCES FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION. THIS COMES AS THE FRONT SLOWLY
CLEARS THE AREA AND TROUGHING PERSISTS BEFORE THE RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SLIDE BACK IN MID WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH A POTENTIAL
FOR FOG OR STRATUS NEAR DAYBREAK.
TYPICAL FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS FIELD HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE
REGION. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE UNTIL SUNDOWN WITH SOUTHEAST
WINDS IN THE 5-8 KT RANGE. A ROGUE SHOWER OR STORM REMAINS
POSSIBLE, BUT CONFIDENCE STILL TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF.
WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM OVERNIGHT BEFORE
BECOMING SOUTHERLY AFTER DAYBREAK. WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN
PLACE, THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR FOG OR STRATUS AT THE TERMINALS
NEAR DAYBREAK. CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO
INCLUDE AND RESTRICTIONS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CHANCES FOR RESTRICTIONS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE THIS WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CJR
AVIATION...29
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