520
FXUS62 KCAE 011745
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
145 PM EDT MON JUN 1 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ISOLATED SHOWER AND STORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH
ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT. ALSO LOWERED
HIGH TEMPS TODAY SLIGHTLY DUE TO PROLONGED CLOUD COVER. AVIATION
DISCUSSION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY BEFORE
DRIER CONDITIONS BEGIN TO MOVE IN. A STRONG STORM CANNOT BE
RULED OUT INTO THIS EVENING.
- 2. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TUESDAY BEHIND A FRONT BEFORE A
WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED INTO THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY
BEFORE DRIER CONDITIONS BEGIN TO MOVE IN. A STRONG STORM CANNOT
BE RULED OUT INTO THIS EVENING.
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH LATER THIS EVENING.
AN ONGOING MCS MOVING THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY IS BRINGING
THUNDERSTORMS TO THAT AREA. IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT THIS
ACTIVITY WILL MAKE IT TO OUR CWA, BUT GUIDANCE HASN'T BEEN
HANDLING THIS FEATURE WELL THUS FAR. SO, IT CAN'T BE RULED OUT
THAT THIS ACTIVITY DOES MAKE IT. IN ADDITION, TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
SHOWERS/STORMS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS IN
THE UPSTATE AND ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARD OUR FORECAST AREA
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OVERALL, THE ENVIRONMENT THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING IS EXPECTED TO BE CHARACTERIZED BY PWAT'S NEAR
1.70-1.90", INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR NEAR 20-30 KTS, AND
MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG. AS A RESULT, ANY ACTIVITY THIS
AFTERNOON COULD PRODUCE A STRONGER CELL WITH STRONG WINDS.
AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES IS EXPECTED TO SHARPEN AND
DIG THROUGH THE EASTERN US. AN ASSOCIATED FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
ACCOMPANY THIS SHARPER TROUGH, PASSING OVER THE AREA TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
CONVECTION TO THE AREA LATER IS EVENING. THE OVERALL FLASH
FLOODING RISK IS LOWER THAN PREVIOUS DAY'S AS STORM MOTIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO BETWEEN 15-25 KTS. A STORM ON THE STRONG
SIDE WITH THE MAIN RISK OF STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS CANNOT
BE RULED OUT WITH THIS ACTIVITY AS WELL, BUT OVERALL SEVERE
RISK IS QUITE LIMITED.
THIS FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST SHOULD BRING
COOLER/DRIER AIR INTO TUESDAY, THOUGH IT MAY STALL OUT NEAR THE
SOUTHERN FA, BRINGING CONTINUED SCATTERED RAIN CHANCES THROUGH
AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. PWAT'S THEN LIKELY DROP TO
UNDER 1" TUESDAY EVENING AS A SURGE OF DRY AIR MOVES, LEADING TO
DRIER CONDITIONS THAT LIKELY HOLD THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 2: BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TUESDAY BEHIND A FRONT
BEFORE A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED INTO THIS WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN TO AROUND 80 ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA,
BUT I DID LOWER THE HIGH TEMPS FOR THE AFTERNOON A COUPLE OF
DEGREES BECAUSE OF THE PROLONGED CLOUD COVER. TEMPERATURES ARE
THEN EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY AS A PUSH OF CAA
MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT. CURRENT NBM GUIDANCE HAS HIGH
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S, BUT DEPENDING ON
HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT PUSHES AND THE TIMING OF THE ONSET OF
850MB CAA, TEMPERATURES, COULD TREND TOWARD SOMEWHAT LOWER THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST. THERE IS LIMITED CHANGE IN THE TEMPERATURE
OUTLOOK THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. THE LATEST LREF CLUSTER ANALYSIS
REMAINS IS DECENT AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER
THE CENTRAL US WILL SHIFT OVERHEAD WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN AS WELL. THIS SHOULD BRING TEMPERATURES THAT REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY, BUT BEGIN STEADILY RAISING CLOSER TO
NORMAL THURSDAY AND INTO THIS WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
RESTRICTIONS WILL EASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH VFR CONDITIONS
RETURNING.
A MIX OF MVFR/VFR CIGS SHOULD CONTINUE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, BUT ARE
EXPECTED TO RETURN TO PREDOMINATELY VFR CLOSER TO 21Z. AS ANOTHER
FRONT DROPS INTO THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING, ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE TERMINALS. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
TWO ROUNDS OF STORMS, ONE EARLY THIS EVENING AND ANOTHER CLOSER TO
04-06Z TONIGHT. BRIEF DECREASES IN CIGS/VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGER STORMS, ALONG WITH WIND GUSTS AROUND 30-35 KTS. OUTSIDE OF
CONVECTIVE GUSTS, SURFACE WINDS SWLY TO NWLY LESS THAN 10 KTS CAN BE
EXPECTED. GUIDANCE INDICATES ADDITIONAL LOW CIGS MAY DEVELOP AFTER
SUNRISE TUESDAY MORNING, WITH MAINLY MVFR RESTRICTIONS OCCURRING.
ADDITIONALLY, WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NELY BEHIND THE FRONT AT AROUND
10 KTS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS EAST LATE TUESDAY MORNING
OR EARLY AFTERNOON. DRIER AIR RETURNS TO THE REGION MID TO LATE WEEK
WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...29
AVIATION...EC
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page