722
FXUS62 KCAE 050603
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
103 AM EST THU MAR 5 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
FOG FAVORED IN THE CSRA EARLY THIS MORNING AND MAY BECOME DENSE
AT TIMES. AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 06Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING THIS MORNING MAY BECOME DENSE AT
TIMES.
- 2. WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK
WITH INCREASING DIURNAL RAIN CHANCES STARTING THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE #1: PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING THIS MORNING MAY BECOME
DENSE AT TIMES.
MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS PASSING OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA BUT CLEAR OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO BE IN PLACE ONCE AGAIN THIS MORNING AND A
PERSISTENCE FORECAST SEEMS REASONABLE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT THIS
MORNING AS WELL WITH HI-RES GUIDANCE FAVORING THE SOUTHERN AREA
FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG. THE VAD WIND PROFILE DOES
INDICATE THAT A LOW LEVEL JET HAS STRENGTHENED TO NEAR 30 KNOTS
WHICH WOULD PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD FOG, ALTHOUGH HI-RES GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT THERE IS A RELATIVE MINIMUM IN WINDS ALOFT IN THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. OVERALL, WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE POTENTIAL NEED FOR A DENSE FOG ADVISORY. TONIGHT,
FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN, MAINLY IN THE SAME LOCATION
WITH LOWER WINDS ALOFT, ALTHOUGH SEEMS TO FAVOR MORE PATCHY FOG
VERSUS WIDESPREAD FOG.
KEY MESSAGE #2: WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK WITH INCREASING DIURNAL RAIN CHANCES STARTING THIS
WEEKEND.
A PERSISTENT BERMUDA SURFACE HIGH AND UPPER RIDGING
STRENGTHENING WILL LEAD TO RELATIVELY HOT AND HUMID WEATHER
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WELL ADVERTISED PERIOD CONTINUES
TO SHOW HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A TEMPERATURE FORECAST WITH HIGHS
10-15 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGE AS ENSEMBLE MEANS INDICATE
UPPER RIDGING BETWEEN 1 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL.
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AS WELL WITH INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW, ALTHOUGH CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE LIMITED BOTH TODAY AND
TOMORROW AS UPPER RIDGING REMAINS STRONG OVER THE AREA. BY
SATURDAY, LREF PROBABILITIES OF PWATS RISING TO ABOVE AN INCH
AND A QUARTER ARE BETWEEN 50-60% AND AS THE RIDGE LIKELY WEAKENS
FURTHER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH THE AXIS OF THE UPPER RIDGE
SHIFTING A BIT EASTWARD, PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE AS WELL AS
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR MAINLY EXPECTED THIS EVENING BEFORE WIDESPREAD FOG AND
STRATUS BRINGS IFR-LIFR RESTRICTIONS BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
LOW LEVEL RIDGE HAS SET UP RIGHT OVER THE FORECAST AREA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND SHOULD MOVE LITTLE OVERNIGHT, PROVIDING LIGHT
SURFACE WINDS THIS EVENING. PATCHES OF SMOKE FROM CONTROLLED
BURNS HAVE SO FAR MANAGED TO AVOID THE TAF SITES, AND WHILE I
CAN;T RULE OUT A LITTLE BIT WORKING INTO A COUPLE OF LOCATIONS,
IT SHOULD NOT BE ENOUGH TO CREATE ANY RESTRICTIONS.
OVERNIGHT, WITH THE TEMPERATURE DROPPING BELOW CROSSOVER TEMPS,
LIGHT WINDS, AND ONLY THIN CIRRUS PASSING BY, LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
WILL ONCE AGAIN BECOME DOMINANT BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON
THURSDAY. RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL SITES STARTING AT
AROUND 8-9Z, AND ENDING BY NOON. BIGGEST CHALLENGE IS
DETERMINING IF FOG OR VERY LOW CIGS WILL DOMINATE AS THERE IS A
BIT OF A LOW LEVEL JET, BUT I THINK THE JET WILL BE LOW ENOUGH
BY SUNRISE THAT FOG WILL DOMINATE FOR A FEW HOURS UNTIL THE
BOUNDARY LAYER STARTS TO LIFT. IT'S POSSIBLE THAT LOW CIGS COULD
HOLD ON A BIT LONGER AT SOME SPOTS THAN I AM CURRENTLY
FORECASTING AS STRATUS CAN BE PRETTY STUBBORN TO BREAK IN
PATTERNS LIKE THIS, BUT THERE IS NOT A LOT OF MODEL SUPPORT FOR
KEEPING IFR CONDITIONS PAST NOON.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL
MORNING STRATUS OR FOG INTO THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK ALONG WITH
INCREASED SHOWER CHANCES FOR THE WEEKEND.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...96
AVIATION...CAL
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