587
FXUS62 KCAE 151032
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
632 AM EDT THU OCT 15 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
GUIDANCE SHOWING INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR SPOTTY SHOWERS WITH
THE COLD FRONT THIS WEEKEND. AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR
12Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. NEAR-RECORD WARMTH THROUGH FRIDAY.
- 2. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT, USHERING IN COOLER WEATHER THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: NEAR-RECORD WARMTH THROUGH FRIDAY.
SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE WARM
AIR TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. AN UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE SITS OVER THE SOUTHEAST WITH THE LREF AND NAEFS BOTH
SHOWING 500MB HEIGHTS AT THE 99TH PERCENTILE. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED
TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES THROUGH FRIDAY,
POTENTIALLY APPROACHING RECORD LEVELS EACH DAY. CLEAR SKIES WILL
PROMOTE EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING EACH NIGHT, ALLOWING LOWS
TO DROP INTO THE MID-50S TO LOW 60S. PWATS ARE GENERALLY AROUND
AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AS DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST LEADING
TO MINIMAL HUMIDITY AND NO HEAT INDICES.
KEY MESSAGE 2: A STRONG COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH THROUGH
THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT, USHERING IN COOLER WEATHER THIS
WEEKEND.
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THIS WEEKEND, USHERING IN A MUCH
COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS. A DEVELOPING TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER
THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES WILL DIG SOUTHEASTWARD AND DEEPEN ACROSS
THE CENTRAL US OVER THE NEXT 2 DAYS, PUSHING THE FRONT EASTWARD
ALONG WITH IT. LATEST MODELS HAVE STARTED TO TREND TO A SOLUTION
SHOWING MORE ENERGY AND ACTIVITY IMPACTING THE EASTERN US,
RATHER THAN A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE PREVIOUSLY DISCUSSED. IN
PARTICULAR, GUIDANCE HINTS AT THE TROUGH POPPING OFF A POTENTIAL
COASTAL STORM LATER THIS WEEKEND. WITH THIS IN MIND, RAIN
CHANCES COULD INCREASE AS TRENDS HAVE SHIFTED TOWARD A MORE
ROBUST AREA OF ENERGY CLOSER TO THE CAROLINAS. HOWEVER,
SIGNIFICANT COLD AIR ADVECTION COULD STILL LIMIT THE SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE FA. ENHANCED WINDS ARE POSSIBLE BEHIND
THE FRONT, WITH DECENT MIXING POTENTIALLY SUPPORTING PEAK GUSTS
OF 25-35 MPH.
FOLLOWING SEVERAL DAYS OF NEAR-RECORD HIGHS, A DRAMATIC
TEMPERATURE DROP OF 20-25F IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT. WELL-
BELOW NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 60S ARE ANTICIPATED SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING A BIT INTO THE LOW TO
MID-70S BY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER, IF THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO
LINGER OFFSHORE, ANY SIGNIFICANT WARMUP COULD BE DELAYED AS
COOLER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FUNNEL INTO THE REGION. CHILLY
OVERNIGHT TEMPS ARE ALSO EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AS LOWER DEW
POINTS PROMOTE EFFICIENT COOLING, ALLOWING LOWS TO DROP INTO THE
40S. A FEW SHELTERED LOCATIONS ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES
NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA BORDER COULD DIP INTO THE UPPER 30S,
THOUGH CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME IS TOO LOW TO MENTION ANY
POTENTIAL FROST.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF POTENTIAL EARLY MORNING PATCHY FOG.
HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE VFR
CONDITIONS AT THE TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT TWENTY-FOUR HOURS.
HOWEVER, SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS DAYS, SOME BRIEF SUNRISE MORNING
FOG AT OUR FOG-PRONE SITES OF AGS/OGB IS POSSIBLE AND ALONG THE
RIVERS. A TEMPO GROUP HAS BEEN ADDED BETWEEN 9-12Z FOR POTENTIAL
MIFG AND LOWERED VSBY. MORE OF THE SAME CONTINUES ON THURSDAY
AS LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR/DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH WINDS
GENERALLY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST, BUT VARYING FROM SOUTH TO WEST.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH PRECIPITATION IS UNLIKELY, BREEZY
W/SW WINDS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY SHIFTING TO A NORTHERLY DIRECTION ON
SATURDAY.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ND
AVIATION...42
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