810
FXUS62 KCAE 170247
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1047 PM EDT TUE JUL 16 2019
SYNOPSIS
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL LIMIT
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK
PRESSURE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
BRINGING INCREASED CHANCES FOR RAINFALL. UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING
RETURNS OVER THE WEEKEND WITH A LEE TROUGH. THIS PATTERN
SUPPORTS TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONVECTION EACH DAY. MODELS SUGGEST
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE EASTERN US EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING THE REGION NEAR THE END
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES/PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT LOWS TO ONCE AGAIN BE ON THE WARM AND MUGGY
SIDE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S. MORNING LOWS WILL ONLY FALL INTO
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S. FOR WEDNESDAY, SIMILAR SETUP ACROSS THE
MIDLANDS AND CSRA AND EXPECT TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN FROM 95 TO
100 DEGREES ALONG WITH ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
90S WITH POSSIBLY A FEW LOCATIONS REACHING 100 DEGREES. HEAT
INDEX VALUES ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO RANGE BETWEEN 100 AND 107
IN THE AFTERNOON.
MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THE NEAR TERM LIMITING THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE. ON WEDNESDAY, THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO
ISOLATED COVERAGE ALONG THE SEABREEZE AND A FEW LINGERING
STORMS MOVING OFF OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE WEST. THE RIDGE
WEAKENS SOME THURSDAY WITH A LEE TROUGH ALLOWING SCATTERED
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. LOWS EACH NIGHT FALL INTO THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 70S.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THE CENTER OF AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS PLACES AN
EASTERLY UPPER-FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE
SOUTHEAST FROM THE EAST BRINGING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE TO THE
AREA. THIS PATTERN SUPPORTS AN INCREASE IN DIURNAL CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS BRING AN UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH INTO THE EASTERN US EARLY NEXT WEEK. AN ASSOCIATED
SURFACE BOUNDARY MAY NEAR THE FORECAST AREA TOWARDS THE END OF
THE LONG TERM BRINGING A HIGHER CHANCE OF RAINFALL, HIGHER CLOUD
COVERAGE AND COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 24-HOUR TAF PERIOD.
SURFACE RIDGING WILL EXTEND FROM THE ATLANTIC WESTWARD INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO. NORTH OF THIS RIDGE THERE WILL BE LEE TROUGHING
LOCALLY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG
HEATING BUT EXPECT LIMITED COVERAGE BECAUSE UPPER RIDGING JUST
SOUTH OF THE AREA SHOULD HELP KEEP MOISTURE SHALLOW. THE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCE WAS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TERMINAL
FORECASTS AT THIS TIME. THE GFS AND NAM MOS PLUS SREF GUIDANCE
AND CROSSOVER TEMPERATURES DO NOT INDICATE FOG, BUT WE DID
INCLUDE A PERIOD OF FOG AT AGS BASED ON THE ADDED MOISTURE
BECAUSE OF A RECENT SHOWER AND WHAT OCCURRED THE PREVIOUS
MORNING.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RIDGING EXTENDING FROM THE ATLANTIC
IS FORECAST TO DOMINATE. THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH
STRONG HEATING WILL BE SCATTERED. SOME LOCATIONS MAY EXPERIENCE
EARLY MORNING FOG.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...99
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...99
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