351
FXUS62 KCAE 170556
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
156 AM EDT WED JUN 17 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
POTENTIAL FOR ACTIVE WEATHER INCREASING FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK. SHOWER CHANCES DECREASING FOR THIS MORNING. AVIATION
DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 06Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. ACTIVE WEATHER INCREASINGLY LIKELY TO END THE WORK WEEK
DUE TO SYSTEM FROM THE GULF MOVING ACROSS THE REGION, WITH
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING
WINDS.
- 2. SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS MORNING MOVE OUT AND DRY CONDITIONS
RETURN INTO THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE ACTIVE WEATHER FROM KEY
MESSAGE 1.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: ACTIVE WEATHER INCREASINGLY LIKELY TO END THE
WORK WEEK DUE TO SYSTEM FROM THE GULF MOVING ACROSS THE REGION,
WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING
WINDS.
POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE 1 (PTC 1) HAS MOVED OFF THE TX COAST
AND INTO THE NORTHWEST GULF. WHILE OVER THE WARM WATERS, IT IS
FORECAST TO INTENSIFY BRIEFLY BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL IN THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND WEAKENING. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SHOW THAT THE UPPER WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM MOVES ALONG
A STALLED BOUNDARY OVER THE GULF COAST STATES AND TOWARD THE
SOUTHEAST. ALTHOUGH THERE IS BETTER AGREEMENT IN TIMING, THERE
IS STILL SOME DISCREPANCY BETWEEN MODEL SOLUTIONS, WITH THE
ECMWF STILL BEING THE STRONGEST WITH THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW.
REGARDLESS OF HOW THE UPPER WAVE AND SURFACE LOW EVOLVE,
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT WE'LL SEE ACTIVE WEATHER THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING INTO FRIDAY.
IN ADDITION TO THE UPPER WAVE ALONG THE GULF COAST, A COLD
FRONT IS FORECAST TO START MOVING SOUTHWARD FROM THE MIDWEST
LATE IN THE WEEK. AS A RESULT, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED
TO TIGHTEN, CAUSING BREEZY TO GUSTY WINDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
THERE IS A MODERATE CHANCE (50-60%) OF WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING 25
MPH. INCREASED MOISTURE IS ALSO EXPECTED AS THE UPPER WAVE PULLS
GULF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION, WITH PWATS OVER 2" LIKELY
EVERYWHERE IN THE FORECAST AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO
LOOK MOIST ADIABATIC THURSDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
LATEST QPF AMOUNTS HAVE INCREASED AS WELL, SO THE COMBINATION OF
THESE FACTORS INDICATE THE THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS
INCREASING. DESPITE THE INCREASED THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN,
CONFIDENCE ISN'T HIGH ENOUGH THAT IT WILL BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH
TO WARRANT A FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME. THE HEAVIEST RAIN FROM
THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO REMAIN TO OUR SOUTHWEST. LASTLY,
AHEAD OF THE HEAVY RAIN, THERE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT CAPE (~1000
J/KG OR GREATER) AND 0-6 KM SHEAR (~20-25 KTS) TO SUPPORT AN
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORM OR TWO WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING
THE MAIN THREAT.
KEY MESSAGE 2: SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS MORNING MOVE OUT AND DRY
CONDITIONS RETURN INTO THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE ACTIVE WEATHER FROM
KEY MESSAGE 1.
A WEAK SHORTWAVE TRANSLATING ACROSS THE SOUTH IS BRINGING
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING, BUT
A MAJORITY OF THE ACTIVITY REMAINS SOUTH OF THE AREA. EXPECT
SHOWER CHANCES TO CONTINUE AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE, WHICH IS
WEAKER THAN FORECAST, LEADING TO LESS ACTIVITY THAN ANTICIPATED
PREVIOUSLY. ONCE THIS SHORTWAVE PASSES, DRY CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF TODAY AND INTO THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM DISCUSSED IN KEY MESSAGE 1. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
REBOUND TO NEAR AVERAGE FOR TODAY AND TOMORROW AS WELL.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE TERMINALS, ALTHOUGH
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN A BIT AGGRESSIVE SO FAR.
REGIONAL RADAR SHOWING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE THAT WILL CROSS THE
ARE LATER THIS MORNING. CIGS HAVE BEEN INTERMITTENT BETWEEN LOW
VFR AND MVFR BUT ALL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING RESTRICTIONS WOULD BE
EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT INTO LATE MORNING. WILL CARRY
PREVAILING MVFR CIGS MOST TERMINALS AND HAVE A TEMPO FOR IFR
CIGS 09Z-13Z TIME FRAME. WILL CARRY VCSH FOR PERSISTENT PASSING
SHOWERS BUT THEY SHOULD END BY MID MORNING WITH DRIER AIR MOVING
IN THIS AFTERNOON WITH IMPROVING CIGS BACK TO VFR. WINDS
EXPECTED TO BE SOUTHWESTERLY 5 TO 10 KNOTS THEN PICK UP TO
AROUND 10 KNOTS AFTER 15Z WITH SOME AFTERNOON GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...DIURNALLY FAVORED CONVECTION
POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON, FAVORING THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS AND
CSRA. BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THU/FRI WITH INCREASED CHANCES
OF RAIN AS A GULF COAST SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...29
AVIATION...23
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