702
FXUS62 KCAE 210557
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
157 AM EDT SUN JUN 21 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
DAILY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN, A WEAK FRONT MOVES
IN MONDAY INTO TUESDAY BRINGING AN INCREASED RISK OF ACTIVE
WEATHER.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN RETURNS THIS WEEKEND
INTO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN RETURNS THIS
WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
WARMER, ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPS RETURN TODAY AS WE BEGIN THE FIRST
OFFICIAL DAY OF SUMMER. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE AS A STALLED BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH DRIFTS OVER THE
AREA. DESPITE HIGHER PWATS, RAIN CHANCES REMAIN LIMITED. ONLY AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHEASTERN MIDLANDS, WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE W/NW MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE
SPC DAY 3 OUTLOOK HIGHLIGHTS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA IN A MARGINAL
RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER. CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS 20-
25 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND 1,500-2,000 J/KG OF CAPE DEVELOPING
DURING PEAK HEATING. SHOULD STORMS ORGANIZE, DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
WOULD BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE REMAINS SOMEWHAT
LIMITED UNTIL HI-RES GUIDANCE BEGINS TO FULLY CAPTURE THE SYSTEM.
A SERIES OF WEAK, MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH
WEAK BOUNDARIES PASSING JUST NORTH OF OUR AREA. THIS PATTERN IS
TYPICAL FOR JUNE, WITH FRONTS STRUGGLING TO REACH THE REGION.
AS A RESULT, EXPECT SUMMERLIKE WEATHER TO DOMINATE WITH HOT AND
HUMID CONDITIONS ACCOMPANIED BY ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LATE NEXT WEEK, A STRONGER UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD
OVER THE FOUR CORNERS, PROMOTING BROADER TROUGHING ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS. THIS PATTERN MAY SUPPORT A MORE ORGANIZED WEATHER
SYSTEM AFFECTING THE AREA, THOUGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW REGARDING
TIMING AND EVOLUTION.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM OVERHEAD THIS MORNING
HINDERING FOG DEVELOPMENT DESPITE CALM WINDS. THAT SAID, AGS
COULD EXPERIENCE A BRIEF DIP IN VIS AROUND SUNRISE BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
WINDS WILL RETURN TO SW TODAY WITH SLIGHT MOISTURE RETURN TO THE
REGION. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE FROM 5 TO 8 KTS AFTER 15Z THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON BUT THE LIKELIHOOD OF IMPACTING THE TERMINALS
ARE LOW DUE TO COVERAGE. WINDS WILL GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TONIGHT AROUND 00Z. AGS AND OGB MAY HAVE BRIEF VIS RESTRICTIONS
AROUND SUNRISE ON MONDAY BUT THE OVERALL SETUP FOR WIDESPREAD
FOG TO DEVELOP IS UNFAVORABLE.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A STRONG LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS COULD
MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK, DIURNALLY-DRIVEN WIDELY
SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ND
AVIATION...CJR
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