394
FXUS62 KCAE 050552
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
152 AM EDT WED AUG 5 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
HEAT AND HUMIDLY RETURN WITH ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION
CONTINUING. AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 06Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS RETURN, WITH CHANCES FOR DIURNAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.
DISCUSSION
- 1. HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS RETURN, WITH CHANCES FOR DIURNAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.
THE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND BECOME
ABSORBED INTO THE BROADER TROUGH AS IT LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD AWAY
FROM THE REGION, RESULTING IN A GRADUAL REDUCTION IN ITS
INFLUENCE. HEIGHTS WILL RISE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK
SUPPORTING A SLOW WARMING TREND WITH INCREASING AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES. MEANWHILE, PWAT VALUES WILL STEADILY INCREASE AS
THE DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR IS REPLACED BY A MORE MOIST SUBTROPICAL
AIRMASS. ALTHOUGH THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN, THE RETURN
OF 1.8-2" PWATS WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED DAILY CONVECTION. POPS
WILL TREND CLOSER TO CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS, WITH DIURNALLY
DRIVEN PULSE CONVECTION EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN MORE ISOLATED COMPARED TO THE
WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. THE SEVERE
COMPONENT SHOULD ALSO DECREASE AS DCAPE LOWERS AND SHEAR
WEAKENS, ALTHOUGH A MARGINALLY SEVERE MICROBURST CANNOT BE RULED
OUT EACH DAY.
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 88-93F,
WHICH SHOULD BE REACHED RELATIVELY EASILY GIVEN THE WARM AND
HUMID BOUNDARY LAYER. WITH OPPRESSIVE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE, WEAK
MID/UPPER-LEVEL FLOW, AND MINIMAL LARGE-SCALE FORCING IN PLACE,
THE REGION WILL SETTLE INTO A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE TONIGHT, BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE COMPARED TO
THE PAST FEW DAYS.
SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY STILL OCCURRING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL MIDLANDS, MAINLY IMPACTING CAE/CUB AT ISSUANCE TIME.
THIS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR SO, THEN REMAIN NORTH
OF ALL TAFS THROUGH SUNRISE. SOME MVFR CEILING RESTRICTIONS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHOWERS. ONCE THOSE CLEAR THE AREA, MAY SEE
A PERIOD OVERNIGHT IN WHICH SKIES SCATTER OUT SOME AT ALL SITES
BEFORE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
RETURN BEFORE SUNRISE. HAVE GENERALLY CONTINUED WITH THE TEMPO
GROUPS THAT WERE PREVIOUSLY IN THERE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS,
THEN AFTER VFR SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE DAY OUTSIDE
OF ANY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS. WITH ANOTHER AFTERNOON OF
DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, PROB30 GROUPS REMAIN THROUGH
SUNSET, SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS DAYS. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT
OVERNIGHT, THEN MORE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
THIS WEEK WITH EARLY MORNING RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ND
AVIATION...73
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page