521
FXUS62 KCAE 012318
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
618 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 00Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
1. MUCH COLDER MONDAY AS WEDGE CONDITIONS DEVELOP.
2. WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATER THIS WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE #1: MUCH COLDER MONDAY AS WEDGE CONDITIONS DEVELOP.
A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE
NORTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL BE REINFORCED BY ANOTHER
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH MOVING EAST OVER NEW ENGLAND
AND RIDGING DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD, WITH STRENGTHENING
NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW. WITH 850MB WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST AND WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT, CAD
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP FOR MONDAY. AS IS TYPICAL,
MODEL GUIDANCE TENDS TO STRUGGLE WITH THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST
AND NBM HIGHS FOR MONDAY WERE NUDGED DOWN SEVERAL DEGREES,
THOUGH POTENTIALLY NOT LOW ENOUGH. PRECIP SHOULD GENERALLY
REMAIN NORTH OF US ON MONDAY WITH WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND
BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
50S, THOUGH SOME SPOTS MAY STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 40S. SOME
IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING
OFFSHORE AND THE WEDGE FRONT LIFTING BACK NORTH.
KEY MESSAGE #2: WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATER THIS WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SITUATE OFFSHORE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK,
WITH A STRENGTHENING UPPER RIDGE AND STORM TRACK NORTH OF THE AREA.
NAEFS AND ENS MEAN HEIGHTS ABOVE 850 MB ARE GENERALLY ABOVE THE 90TH
PERCENTILE DURING THE PERIOD, SUPPORTING THE EXPECTATION OF WELL
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. AS SUCH, BLENDED GUIDANCE INDICATES HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S AND LOWS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S WEDNESDAY INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS REMAIN POSSIBLE PARTICULARLY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH
MOISTURE RISING AND PWATS LINGERING AROUND 150-200% OF NORMAL. IT
SHOULD ALSO BE MENTIONED THAT GEFS PROBABILITY OF >500 J/KG SURFACE
BASED CAPE IS >40% FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER REMAINS LIMITED WITH A NOTABLE LACK OF UPPER FORCING OR
APPRECIABLE WIND SHEAR DURING THIS PERIOD.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE TERMINALS TONIGHT WITH MVFR CEILINGS
POSSIBLE AROUND DAYBREAK AT CAE/CUB/OGB....
HIGH CLOUDS HAVE MOVED OVER THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING. EXPECT
MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND LIGHT SURFACE WINDS THROUGH
MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MOVES IN
FROM THE NORTHEAST TOWARDS DAYBREAK LIKELY BRINGING MVFR
CEILINGS AT CAE/CUB AND PROBABLY OGB AS WELL. GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO SHOW THE LOW CLOUDS NOT MAKING IT TO AGS/DNL DURING THE TAF
PERIOD THEREFORE MAINTAINED VFR CONDITIONS AT THOSE TERMINALS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WILL MONITOR FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
RIVER FOG IMPACTING VISIBILITY AT OGB/AGS IN PARTICULAR BUT FOG
WILL NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD OR AS DENSE AS LAST NIGHT.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY, LIKELY EXPANDING TO AGS/DNL. LOW END RISK
FOR A FEW SHOWERS ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHER RAINFALL CHANCES
STARTING ON THURSDAY.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CJR
AVIATION...7
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