890
FXUS62 KCAE 041732
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
132 PM EDT THU JUN 4 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
FORECAST FOR THE NEXT WEEK REMAINS ON TRACK. AVIATION DISCUSSION
UPDATED FOR 18Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. WARMING TREND BEGINS TODAY, CONTINUING INTO THIS WEEKEND WITH
DRY CONDITIONS. DIURNAL RAIN CHANCES MAY RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: WARMING TREND BEGINS TODAY, CONTINUING INTO THIS
WEEKEND WITH DRY CONDITIONS. DIURNAL RAIN CHANCES MAY RETURN EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
A STRONG UPPER RIDGE NEAR THE NAEFS 90TH PERCENTILE IS SHIFTING
OVERHEAD STARTING TODAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO CONSOLIDATE
OVER THE EAST COAST AND REMAIN QUASISTATIONARY INTO THIS WEEKEND.
THESE FEATURES WILL BRING A SLIGHT WARMING TREND BACK TO NORMAL
EARLY JUNE TEMPERATURES INTO THIS WEEKEND, WITH HIGHS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S. UNCHARACTERISTICALLY FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR , MODELS GENERALLY KEEP DEEP MOISTURE OUT THE AREA WITH
PWAT'S ONLY ABOUT 50-60% OF NORMAL, LIMITING THE THREAT FOR ANY
DIURNAL CONVECTION AND KEEPING OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER RATHER PLEASANT.
THIS CHANGES A BIT SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDES OFFSHORE AND BRINGS A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE REGION.
THIS WILL BUMP UP DEWPOINTS BACK INTO THE 60S AS MOISTURE LEVELS
RETURN CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS. EARLY NEXT WEEK, WEAKNESS IN THE
UPPER RIDGE AND A FEW SHORTWAVES PASSING NEAR THE AREA MAY LEAD TO
BETTER CHANCE FOR SOME DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION, PARTICULARLY
GIVEN BETTER MOISTURE AVAILABILITY.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT
ALL SITES.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL, SUPPORTING DRY WEATHER
AND VFR CONDITIONS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET
AND BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.
WITH THE AIRMASS REMAINING QUITE DRY, I DO NOT EXPECT ANY
SIGNIFICANT FOG. HOWEVER, SOME LOCALIZED RIVER OR VALLEY FOG
CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT AT THE MORE FOG-PRONE TERMINALS
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AT AGS/OGB. PROBABILITIES ARE STILL QUITE
LOW AT THIS TIME, BUT I THOUGHT IT WOULD BE WORTH MENTIONING.
WINDS WILL PICK BACK UP FRIDAY MIDDAY AS DAYTIME MIXING
DEVELOPS. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR, WITH ONLY A FEW HIGH CIRRUS
CLOUDS BEGINNING TO ARRIVE TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO HANG ON
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...EC
AVIATION...ND
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