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FXUS62 KCAE 201515
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1115 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2025
SYNOPSIS
UPPER RIDGING WILL BE IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH
MONDAY, LEADING TO CONTINUED DRY WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN COMES ON TUESDAY FROM A
COLD FRONT WHICH COULD STALL OUT ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE MID
TO LATE WEEK PERIOD.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- DRY WITH CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED
JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST US COAST WITH UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS,
CONSIDERABLE MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IS STREAMING WITHIN THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE IS
POSITIONED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC, MAINTAINING THE INFLUX OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA.
HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THOUGH THE DAY,
ALONG WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND THE WARM/SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALSO RESULT IN
ANOTHER DAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES, WITH MOST AREAS ONCE
AGAIN REACHING HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS OVERNIGHT MAY LEAD TO SOME
PATCHY RIVER FOG OR STRATUS TOWARD DAYBREAK. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE
GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE RIGHT AROUND 60 DEGREES.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- UPPER RIDGING AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST KEEPS THE REGION
DRY ON MONDAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
- A COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH AND WEST ON
TUESDAY, BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
UPPER RIDGING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD FINALLY BREAKS DOWN
MONDAY NIGHT, GIVING WAY TO BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. DESPITE
THE RIDGE BREAKING DOWN, HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL, FAVORING A CONTINUATION OF THE ATYPICALLY WARM
TEMPERATURES DESPITE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. FORECAST
HIGHS ON BOTH DAYS SHOULD BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S, AROUND 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. A COLD FRONT SLUGGISHLY MOVES EAST ON
TUESDAY COULD BRING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FA LATE
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN MIDLANDS. HOWEVER, THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN SHOULD HOLD
OFF UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WHEN THE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED
TO STALL SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD TRIGGER SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.
- TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL VALUES DESPITE THE
ANTICIPATED CLOUDS AND RAIN.
THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL SOMEWHERE
ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, SERVING AS THE
FOCAL POINT FOR DAILY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW PASSING
SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD,
AIDING IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT, THOUGH THE OVERALL PATTERN
DOES NOT APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS TIME. GIVEN THAT GUIDANCE HAS STRUGGLED
WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT, CONSISTENTLY DELAYING ITS ARRIVAL,
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES IS LOWER THAN
USUAL. WITH THIS IN MIND, POPS WERE CAPPED IN THE CHANCE
CATEGORY THROUGH THE EXTENDED. AS HEIGHTS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL,
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL VALUES THROUGH THE
LONG TERM. SOME IMPROVEMENT IN THE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS POSSIBLE
TOWARDS NEXT WEEKEND, THOUGH CONTINUED WARM AND MOIST
CONDITIONS COULD STILL TRIGGER ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
CONVECTION.
AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
SURFACE WINDS SHOULD PICK UP TO AROUND 10 KTS AS DAYTIME
HEATING KICKS IN. A FEW AFTERNOON FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS AND HIGH
LEVEL CIRRUS WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. SOME THINNING OF HIGH CLOUDS WILL THEN OCCUR THIS
EVENING AS WINDS DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 5 KTS FOR THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION TOWARD
MIDWEEK SUPPORTING POTENTIAL RESTRICTIONS AND POSSIBLE RAINFALL.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
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