999
FXUS62 KCAE 011902
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
302 PM EDT THU OCT 1 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 18Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. MOSTLY DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH
FRIDAY.
- 2. INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN THIS WEEKEND AS A FRONT
APPROACHES THE AREA.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: MOSTLY DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
THROUGH FRIDAY.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS REMAINS TO THE WEST OF THE AREA AND WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK LEADING TO
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AS 500 MB HEIGHTS WILL RISE TO NEAR
1.5 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL BASED ON ENSEMBLE
MEANS. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO HIGHS NEARLY 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL, IN THE LOW 90S AS OCTOBER BEGINS UNSEASONABLE WARM. WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING OFFSHORE, LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE, ALTHOUGH FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A
LAYER OF SUBSTANTIAL DRY AIR IN PLACE THAT WILL PRECLUDE ANY
RAIN TODAY. AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN AND THE DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE, ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH, SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS A POSSIBLY A STRAY STORM REMAINS POSSIBLE IN
THE AFTERNOON BUT MUCH OF THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY.
KEY MESSAGE 2: INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN THIS WEEKEND AS A FRONT
APPROACHES THE AREA.
THERE REMAINS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY AS IT PERTAINS TO THE
PROGRESSION OF A FRONT THROUGH THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. NAEFS MEAN
INDICATES PWATS BY SATURDAY WILL INCREASE TO AROUND THE 99TH
PERCENTILE WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WELL ABOVE AVERAGE MOISTURE
ACROSS THE AREA. WHILE FORCING WILL BE GENERALLY WEAK,
ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY, WEAKNESSES IN THE RIDGE AND CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES SATURDAY
CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY. MODELS AND ENSEMBLES SHOW LARGE SPLIT IN
TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH AN AXIS OF
HEAVIER RAIN LIKELY IN THE AREA. LREF STILL CONTINUES TO SHOW
SIGNIFICANT SPREAD FROM AROUND 0.75" TO 2" BETWEEN THE 25TH TO
75TH PERCENTILE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. MONDAY DRIER AIR WILL
LIKELY BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN AREA ALTHOUGH THERE IS
UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW DEEP A TROUGH MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES
AND THUS HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT PROGRESSES BUT THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS GIVING WAY TO POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS IN
STRATUS/FOG EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS AND LIGHT, VARIABLE WINDS CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. MOISTURE INCREASES TONIGHT AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES, WITH OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW
STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPING AFTER 09Z FRIDAY, INITIALLY ALONG
THE COASTAL PLAIN AND THEN SPREADING INLAND TOWARD THE CSRA AND
EASTERN MIDLANDS. TEMPO GROUPS HAVE BEEN ADDED FOR POTENTIAL
MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBY RESTRICTIONS BETWEEN 09-13Z AT ALL SITES.
LIFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL AT SOME LOCATIONS, MAINLY
AROUND OGB. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT IN RESTRICTIONS BY MIDMORNING ON FRIDAY. AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE IN OUR SOUTHERN
AREAS WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE IS EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
THIS WEEKEND MAY LEAD TO ADDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...96
AVIATION...ND
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page