672
FXUS62 KCAE 121738
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
138 PM EDT MON OCT 12 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
FORECAST HIGHS APPROACHING DAILY RECORDS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 18Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. DRY, WARM WEATHER FAVORED THROUGH THE WEEK.
- 2. STRONG COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN A MUCH COOLER AIR MASS FOR
THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: DRY, WARM WEATHER FAVORED THROUGH THE WEEK.
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS FORECAST BY GUIDANCE TO
OVERSPREAD THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. WHILE THE
RIDGING WILL BE RELATIVELY TRANSIENT AND TO OUR EAST BY THE
WEEKEND (MORE ON THAT IN A MOMENT), WE ARE LOOKING AT WELL ABOVE
NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES. THE RECORDS ON THURSDAY ARE 90 (CAE) /
91 (AGS), AND 89 (CAE) / 90 (AGS) ON FRIDAY. THE RECORDS ON
FRIDAY ARE ESPECIALLY IN DANGER. THE BULK OF THE FORCING FOR
PRECIP WILL BE WELL TO OUR NORTH, YIELDING A DRY COLD FRONT
PASSAGE FRIDAY NIGHT. STRONG WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS
COUPLED WITH DRY AIR & COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AHEAD OF THE FRONT
IS LIKELY TO YIELD TEMPS WARMER THAN WHAT GUIDANCE IS EXPECTING
RIGHT NOW. LOW 90S ARE DEFINITELY POSSIBLE IN THIS REGIME. BUT
ASIDE FROM POTENTIALLY RECORD HIGHS, THE WEATHER LOOKS BENIGN.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEK, WITH HIGHS GENERALLY
IN THE UPPER 80S UNTIL THUR/FRI.
KEY MESSAGE 2: STRONG COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN A MUCH COOLER AIR
MASS FOR THE WEEKEND.
AND NOW ON TO THE BETTER NEWS: THE COOLEST AIR OF THE SEASON
THUS FAR IS FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT,
BEGINNING FRIDAY NIGHT AND PERSISTING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WITH FORECAST HIGHS/LOWS IN THE 60S/40S THIS WEEKEND, WE ARE
LOOKING AT A CRISP AIRMASS ON THE ORDER OF 10-15F BELOW NORMAL.
IT ALSO LOOKS BREEZY AND SUNNY ON SATURDAY BEHIND THE FRONT -
PERFECT FOR A TRIP TO THE PUMPKIN PATCH OR HAUNTED HOUSE IF
THATS YOUR KIND OF THING. MAKE SOME CHILI, SOME APPLE CIDER.
WHATEVER IT IS YOU LIKE ABOUT FALL, THIS WEEKEND WILL FEATURE
THE PERFECT WEATHER BACKGROUND FOR IT.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD OUTSIDE OF
POTENTIAL EARLY MORNING PATCHY FOG.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE CURRENTLY NEAR 10KTS WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS NEAR 15-18 KTS, BUT THESE SHOULD SUBSIDE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. TONIGHT, WINDS BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE AND WHEN COUPLED WITH STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING,
CANNOT RULE OUT PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT. RECENT LAMP/HRRR
GUIDANCE INDICATES THIS POTENTIAL, BUT CONFIDENCE IN DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS THE TAF SITES IS FAIRLY LOW OUTSIDE OF THE USUAL FOG PRONE
LOCATIONS OF AGS/DNL. THIS POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED. AFTER THIS, LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS CONTINUE INTO
THE MORNING HOURS TUESDAY WITH CLEAR SKIES.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT AVIATION CONCERNS.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...PL
AVIATION...DH
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