367
FXUS62 KCAE 210018
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
818 PM EDT TUE OCT 20 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SLIGHT CHANGES TO OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES. AVIATION DISCUSSION
FOR THE 00Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK
WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL.
THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS
TONIGHT, AS ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. PASSING CIRRUS ARE SEEN AT THE
MOMENT AND MAY CONTINUE OVERNIGHT, BUT THESE CLOUDS APPEAR
FAIRLY THIN AND MAY HAVE LIMITED IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES.
OVERALL, ANOTHER NIGHT WITH LOWS INTO THE MID 40S IS EXPECTED,
BUT A FEW SPOTS COULD DIP INTO THE LOWER 40S.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH ACROSS DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE IN THE SYNOPTIC EVOLUTION OVER THE NEXT 4-6 DAYS.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR NORMAL, IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S OVER
THE COMING DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK BY THE WEEKEND, A
DEEP TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DIG IN ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS
SHOULD AMPLIFY THE DOWNSTREAM FEATURES, BEING THE RIDGE OVER
THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY AND TROUGHING ACROSS THE EAST.
INCREASED TROUGHING THIS WEEKEND SHOULD YIELD TEMPERATURES
PERHAPS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL, POTENTIALLY AS SOON AS FRIDAY.
DESPITE THE RELATIVELY MINOR UNCERTAINTY IN TEMPERATURES LATE IN
THE WEEK, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THE AIRMASS CONTINUES TO
BE QUITE MOISTURE-STARVED WITH LREF PROBABILITIES FOR DEWPOINTS
REACHING ABOVE 50F BELOW 20% MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
GREATER UNCERTAINTY IN THE CURRENT PATTERN DOES NOT ENTER UNTIL
EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT EVEN THEN, CHANCES FOR DEEPER MOISTURE TO
ADVECT INTO THE REGION REMAINS LOW.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL KEEP NORTHERLY FLOW IN
PLACE WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND A FEW PASSING HIGH CLOUDS.
WITH A LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING, WINDS HAVE BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AND REMAIN THAT WAY OVERNIGHT. WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND
5 KNOTS TOMORROW OUT OF THE NNE.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SIGNIFICANT AVIATION CONCERNS
UNLIKELY THROUGH SUNDAY.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DH/29
AVIATION...96
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