965
FXUS62 KCAE 081034
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
634 AM EDT SAT AUG 8 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 12Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, SOME STRONG, EACH DAY.
- 2. INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
- 1. DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, SOME STRONG, EACH DAY.
MORE OF THE SAME PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. ONSHORE SURFACE FLOW, IN CONJUNCTION WITH A
STRONG BERMUDA HIGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO
PROVIDE SIGNIFICANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE REGION. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE THIS WEEKEND,
WITH THE FOCUS SHIFTING CLOSER TO THE COAST AS THE RIDGE BEGINS
TO FLATTEN. HOWEVER, DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE LOW
TO MID 70S OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. DAILY SBCAPE VALUES
SHOULD ALSO REMAIN MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT DIURNAL
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, SO THE POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION WILL REMAIN DESPITE THE OVERALL DECREASE
IN COVERAGE. STRONG STORMS ARE CAPABLE EACH DAY, AS SUFFICIENT
CAPE WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR WET MICROBURSTS WITHIN THE
STRONGEST CONVECTION.
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN BY NEXT WEEK,
WHICH SHOULD HELP KEEP SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
GENERALLY ISOLATED, THOUGH DAILY STORM CHANCES WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE. THERE IS ALSO A SIGNAL, ALBEIT AN INCONSISTENT ONCE,
THAT A DEEPER TROUGH COULD MOVE INTO THE EASTERN CONUS TOWARDS
THE END OF NEXT WEEK, POTENTIALLY INCREASING STORM COVERAGE ONCE
AGAIN.
- 2. INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.
A LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BEGIN
DEVELOPING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, WITH 90TH PERCENTILE
500 HPA HEIGHTS OVERSPREADING THE AREA BY SUNDAY. WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW COMMON AND AFTERNOON STORM COVERAGE EXPECTED
TO LOWER A BIT BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE FORECAST
TO BUMP UP INTO THE MID 90S. WITH PERSISTENTLY HIGH DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOW TO MID 70S, LREF GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A HIGH
LIKELIHOOD OF DAILY, PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUE EXCEEDING 100F. WHILE
THIS ISN'T AT HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA, IT ISN'T CRAZY TO THINK WE
MAY HAVE A DAY OR TWO NEXT WEEK WHERE WE APPROACH 105F-108F FOR
AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES. BE SURE TO PRACTICE GOOD HABITS
WHEN DEALING WITH THE HEAT NEXT WEEK!
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING.
SATELLITE IMAGERY IS INDICATING PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS ACROSS THE
REGION OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS. IT APPEARS TO BE INCREASING IN
COVERAGE, BUT ISN'T IMPACTING ALL OF THE TAF SITES CURRENTLY. WILL
LEAVE IN A TEMPO GROUP TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME BRIEFLY REDUCED
CIGS/VSBYS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. GIVEN THE LACK OF RAIN AT
THE TERMINALS YESTERDAY, EXPECT RESTRICTIONS TO QUICKLY EASE BACK TO
VFR FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF THE DAY. CALM WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TO LIGHT SE 5 TO 10 KTS INTO THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TODAY SEEMS TO BE LESS THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS,
WITH THE BEST CHANCE AT OGB. HAVE HANDLED THE POTENTIAL FOR -TSRA
WITH A PROB30 THERE, AND ONLY VCSH AT THE OTHER TERMINALS WHERE
CONFIDENCE IS LOWER. GUIDANCE IS HITTING THE RESTRICTIONS A BIT
HARDER FOR TONIGHT, BUT IT MAY AGAIN BE DEPENDENT ON WHERE ANY
HEAVIER POCKETS OF RAIN FALL TODAY. HEDGED ONLY SLIGHTLY ON SOME
REDUCED VSBYS TONIGHT AT AGS, BUT THIS MAY EXPAND TO THE OTHER
TERMINALS WITH SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A SEASONAL PATTERN OF EARLY MORNING
RESTRICTIONS AND DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS IS LIKELY THROUGH MUCH
OF THE EXTENDED.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ND
AVIATION...EC
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