281
FXUS62 KCAE 170020
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
820 PM EDT THU JUL 16 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AIR QUALITY ALERT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR LANCASTER COUNTY FOR
FRIDAY. AVIATION UPDATED FOR 00Z TAF.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. GENERALLY LOW CHANCES OF RAIN THROUGH FRIDAY, FAVORING THE
CSRA WITH A WARMING TREND EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA.
- 2. INCREASED CHANCES OF RAIN AND SEVERE WEATHER OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH HIGHEST CHANCES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: GENERALLY LOW CHANCES OF RAIN THROUGH FRIDAY,
FAVORING THE CSRA WITH A WARMING TREND EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA.
THE LAST FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ARE NOW DIMINISHING ACROSS THE
FA WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. THE ONLY CHANGE AT THIS HOUR LOOKING
AHEAD IS THE SOUTH CAROLINA DEPARTMENT OF ENVIRONMENTAL SERVICES
HAS ISSUED AN AIR QUALITY ALERT FOR LANCASTER COUNTY DUE TO
INCREASED GROUND LEVEL OZONE CONCENTRATIONS THAT COULD BE
UNHEALTHY FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS. THIS WILL BE IN EFFECT FROM 10AM
TO 8PM FRIDAY.
LITTLE CHANGE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES
WARMING FURTHER FRIDAY AS BROAD UPPER RIDGING SPANS THE ENTIRE
CONUS. NAEFS CONTINUES TO SHOW 850MB TEMPERATURES ABOVE THE 99TH
PERCENTILE BOTH DAYS WHILE EVEN REMAINING ABOVE THE 90TH
PERCENTILE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. 700MB TEMPERATURES
ARE ALSO ABOVE THE 97TH PERCENTILE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
NOTABLY, THE BULLSEYE OF HIGHEST ANOMALIES IS GENERALLY TOWARD
THE COASTLINE AND EASTERN NC, SO PERHAPS EXPECT THE EASTERN
MIDLANDS INTO THE PEE DEE REACH THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES DURING
THIS STRETCH. FROM A SENSIBLE WEATHER PERSPECTIVE, EXPECT HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO PUSH BACK INTO THE MID AND UPPER 90S WITH FRIDAY
BEING THE WARMEST DAY. DEWPOINTS WERE ADJUSTED DOWN FOR BOTH
TODAY AND FRIDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME DEEPER MIXING WHICH WOULD
RESULT IN SOME DRIER AIR MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE AS THE NBM
CONTINUES TO REMAIN SLIGHTLY TOO MOIST. STILL, THESE VALUES
WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AND HEAT INDICES ARE EXPECTED TO
RISE BACK ABOVE 100 DEGREES AND COULD REACH 105 OR HIGHER BY
FRIDAY, BUT NOT QUITE HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT A HEAT ADVISORY AT
THIS TIME.
KEY MESSAGE 2: INCREASED CHANCES OF RAIN AND SEVERE WEATHER
OVER THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHEST CHANCES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
A BROAD TROUGH WILL DIG ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN US OVER THE
WEEKEND, DRAGGING A DIFFUSE TROUGH DOWN THROUGH OUR REGION
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. SURFACE CONVERGENCE, ALONG WITH A POSSIBLE
WEAK TROPICAL DISTURBANCE, WILL YIELD VERY PWAT'S OVER 2.25"
AND IN CONJUNCTION WITH HEIGHT FALLS AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES,
MODERATE INSTABILITY ACROSS OUR AREA. SATURDAY APPEARS TO BE A
MORE TYPICAL ENHANCED PULSE THUNDERSTORM DAY, WITH ONLY MODEST
MID- LEVEL SUPPORT AS NOTABLE SHEAR REMAINS NORTH BUT
THERMODYNAMICS ARE PRIMED. SUNDAY, AS THE SURFACE TROUGH
APPROACHES, AND THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH BRINGS SOME NOTABLE CLOUD
LAYER SHEAR AROUND 30-35 KNOTS, COULD BRING MORE ORGANIZED
CLUSTERS AND A FURTHER ENHANCEMENT TO SEVERE POTENTIAL; A SLIGHT
RISK FOR SEVERE (2 OUT OF 5) IS OUT FOR THE I-77 CORRIDOR INTO
THE MIDLANDS. THE WILDCARD IN ALL THIS IS THE POTENTIAL WEAK
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE THAT MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE STALLED SURFACE
BOUNDARY, EITHER IN THE NORTHERN GULF OR IN THE COASTAL
ATLANTIC. WHILE IT WILL VERY LIKELY NOT BRING ANY SIGNIFICANT
IMPACTS IN ITS OWN RIGHT, IT WILL PLAUSIBLY ENHANCE BOTH
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND KINEMATICS FOR OUR AREA, BOOSTING ANY
SEVERE OR FLASH FLOOD THREAT BOTH SUNDAY AND AGAIN ON MONDAY.
MODEL GUIDANCE ACROSS THE BOARD IS STRUGGLING WITH HOW TO PLACE
AND SHIFT THIS DIFFUSE LOW CENTER, SO IT MAY TAKE ANOTHER FEW
RUNS TO BETTER IDENTIFY ANY POTENTIAL IMPACTS IT MAY BRING.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION CONTINUES TO WANE THIS EVENING WITH
SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS MAINLY OVER THE CSRA. WINDS
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT OVERNIGHT FROM THE SOUTH AND CLOUDS SHOULD
GRADUALLY THIN THROUGH THE NIGHT. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF
BRIEF MORNING FOG ESPECIALLY IF SKIES CLEAR OUT FULLY SO
INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP FROM 11Z-13Z FOR MVFR VSBYS. ISOLATED
CONVECTION POSSIBLE AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...POTENTIAL FOR RESTRICTIONS FROM
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN THIS WEEKEND.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...AIR QUALITY ALERT FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR SCZ115-116.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DH/42
AVIATION...23
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