812
FXUS62 KCAE 231657
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1257 PM EDT TUE JUN 23 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED KEY MESSAGE 1 TO REMOVE MORNING VERBIAGE AND MADE MINOR
EDITS ELSEWHERE. AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 18Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN EXPECTED THIS WEEK, WITH
INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN EXPECTED THIS WEEK, WITH
INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY THIS WEEKEND.
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS EXITING THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON,
CONTRIBUTING TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH
CAROLINA AND THE MID-ATLANTIC. MEANWHILE, DRY CONDITIONS ARE ONGOING
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. CAMS
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
LATER TODAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND
THE SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. ELSEWHERE, WARM, HUMID, AND
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.
BRIEF DRYING IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AS NORTHWEST FLOW BRINGS IN
COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER. BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK, A WEAKNESS
DEVELOPING IN THE UPPER TROUGH SPLITS THE RIDGE OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST AND WESTERN ATLANTIC, SUPPORTING A RETURN OF DIURNAL
CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO TREND UPWARD INTO THIS WEEKEND,
AS RIDGING RESTRENGTHENS AND DOMINATES ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE 90S WITH SOME GLOBAL
MODELS HINTING AT UPPER 90S EARLY NEXT WEEK. HEAT INDICES COULD ALSO
SURPASS THE 100 DEGREE MARK. WHILE DETAILS REMAIN UNCERTAIN, HEAT
HEADLINES MAY BECOME NECESSARY THIS WEEKEND FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA
DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH AFTERNOON MIXING OCCURS.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
DRIER AIR ALOFT IS STEADILY FILLING IN ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF A
SURFACE FRONT THAT WILL ARRIVE THIS EVENING. WITH DRIER AIR ALOFT,
ONLY SOME TYPICAL SUMMER CU AROUND 4-5K FEET ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN NORTHEAST OF THE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON & EVENING BEFORE
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. GUSTY WEST WINDS UP TO 25 KNOTS WILL
CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS WELL, WITH WINDS THEN SHIFTING OUT OF
THE NORTH OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. DRY AIR BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL PREVENT ANY CIG, VSBY, OR RAIN RELATED RESTRICTIONS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY WILL BE DRY BUT FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK, DIURNALLY-DRIVEN WIDELY SCATTERED
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...7
AVIATION...42
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