126
FXUS62 KCAE 191659
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1259 PM EDT MON OCT 19 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
HIGH TEMPS FOR THE WEEKEND HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY COOLER.
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 18Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK WITH
TEMPERATURES THAT WARM TO NEAR NORMAL BY THE MID WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK
WITH TEMPERATURES THAT WARM TO NEAR NORMAL BY THE MID WEEK.
THERE REMAINS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS WEEK AND
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. IN A WORD, THE FORECAST IS DRY. REINFORCING
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION THROUGH
THE MID WEEK AS A GENERAL TROUGHING PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS. THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD IS
FORECAST TO DIGGING FURTHER SOUTH LATE IN THE WEEK. BY THE LATE
WEEK, A DEEP TROUGH SHOULD PUSH INTO THE WESTERN US, AMPLIFYING
A RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY AND SLOWLY PUSHING
THIS RIDGE SLOWLY EASTWARD. OVERALL, THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN
FAVORS THE PERSISTENCE OF A DRIER AIRMASS OVER THE REGION WHERE
LREF PROBABILITIES FOR PWAT'S LESS THAN 0.50" AND DEW POINTS
LESS THAN 45F EXCEED 60-80% THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. AS THE RIDGE SLOWLY WORKS TOWARD THE FA, AFTERNOON
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH NEAR NORMAL BY THE MID
TO LATE WEEK. HOWEVER, GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE DIGGING UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD COULD AMPLIFY IN RESPONSE TO
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPSTREAM FEATURES, RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPS FOR THE WEEKEND. LATEST TEMPERATURE SPREAD HAS
INCREASED OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF RUNS FOR FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND, SUGGESTING HIGHER UNCERTAINTY. NONETHELESS, THE WEEK
STILL LOOKS DRY.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR UNDER CLEAR SKIES THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING CLEAR SKIES TO THE
REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. ONLY WEATHER ISSUE SHOULD REVOLVE
AROUND WINDS AND ASSOCIATED GUSTS, BOTH DURING THIS AFTERNOON,
AND AGAIN FROM LATE MORNING INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. GUSTS SHOULD
NOT BE SIGNIFICANT, BUT COULD REACH UPWARDS OF 15 KNOTS AT
TIMES. WINDS SHOULD NOT GO COMPLETELY CALM OVERNIGHT AT MOST
LOCATIONS, SO ENOUGH MIXING SHOULD OCCUR TO HELP INHIBIT FOG
FORMATION, EVEN AT THE USUAL FOG PRONE LOCATIONS TONIGHT.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...29
AVIATION...73
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