092  
FXUS62 KCAE 290836  
AFDCAE  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC  
336 AM EST MON NOV 29 2021  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION TODAY. EXPECT A  
GRADUAL WARMING TREND TO ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES  
BEGINNING TUESDAY ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON BREEZINESS AS  
THE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE. NO RAIN IN THE FORECAST INTO  
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
 
 
A COLD FRONT IS CROSSING THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING AND  
SHOULD REACH THE COAST BY 12-14Z WITH NORTHERLY WINDS SPREADING  
OVER THE FORECAST AREA. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MAINLY CLEAR  
SKIES BUT SOME HIGHER CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION  
LATER THIS MORNING AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES. MOISTURE  
WILL BE VERY LIMITED WITH PWATS FALLING TO AROUND 0.25 INCHES OR  
LESS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL  
RESULT IN SOME DOWNSLOPING WHICH WILL OFFSET THE COLD ADVECTION  
TO A DEGREE. HIGH TEMPERATURES STILL EXPECTED TO BE COOLER THAN  
SUNDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 50S NORTH TO UPPER 50S  
IN THE CSRA AND SOUTHEAST MIDLANDS. THE REINFORCING DRY AIR  
MASS AIDED BY DOWNSLOPING FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN LOWERING  
DEWPOINTS INTO THE TEENS BY THIS AFTERNOON.  
 
TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES COMBINED WITH NEAR CALM WINDS AS  
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION SHOULD PROVIDE NEAR IDEAL  
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO  
DROP QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET AND FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S ACROSS THE  
REGION. LEANED TOWARD THE COOLER MET GUIDANCE.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US BY  
TUESDAY, SLOWLY SHIFTING TOWARDS THE COAST. A DRY AND COOLER  
AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE TO START THE DAY BUT WITH 500MB  
HEIGHTS RECOVERING TO NEAR AVERAGE AND SW SURFACE WINDS  
PROMOTING WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION, TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER TO  
NEAR AVERAGE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S UNDER SUNNY SKIES. FAVORABLE  
RADIATIONAL COOLING ONCE AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT, ALTHOUGH A  
SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY MAY LEAD TO SOME INCREASED  
HIGH CLOUDS WITH A BIT STRONGER LOW LEVEL JET. STILL THINK THAT  
THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE THAT TEMPERATURES DROP QUICKLY AFTER  
SUNSET WITH LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S.  
 
WEDNESDAY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS NORTH OF THE FORECAST  
AREA BUT RIDGING WILL REMAIN OVER SC AND EASTERN GA WITH  
TEMPERATURES MODERATING FURTHER WITH THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE  
REMAINING OFFSHORE CONTINUING TO PROMOTE WARM ADVECTION.  
WEDNESDAY NIGHT A BIT MORE BOUNDARY LAYER WIND IS EXPECTED WHICH  
WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS RELATIVELY MILD, IN THE LOW TO MID 40S.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
 
 
ANOTHER LOW WILL PASS WELL TO THE NORTH THURSDAY LEADING TO  
BREEZY WINDS AS UPPER RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD WITH THE AXIS  
JUST WEST OF THE AREA. NW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO REINFORCE  
DEEP LAYER DRY AIR. ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SUPPORT PWATS WELL  
BELOW AN INCH THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH INCREASES  
EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND LEADING TO AN INCREASE IN MOSTLY HIGH AND  
MID LEVEL CLOUDS WITH THE LOWER LEVELS REMAINING DRY, LIMITING  
ANY CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. WITH UPPER RIDGING BUILDING AND  
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO REMAIN OFFSHORE,  
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE BY THE END OF THE WEEK  
WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 40S.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.  
 
A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT  
OFFSHORE BY MIDDAY WITH NORTHERLY WIND PERSISTING THROUGH THE  
DAY AROUND 8 TO 10 KNOTS WITH SOME GUSTS TO 15 KNOTS BRIEFLY MID  
MORNING. SKIES WILL GENERALLY BE CLEAR EXCEPT FOR SOME PASSING  
HIGH CLOUDS. WINDS WILL BECOME NEAR CALM AFTER SUNSET THIS  
EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA.  
 
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION  
EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.  
 

 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
 
DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE EARLY THIS WEEK. METEOROLOGICAL  
CRITERIA WILL REMAIN BELOW A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT OR A RED  
FLAG WARNING HOWEVER CONDITIONS ARE BEING CLOSELY MONITORED AS  
DAYTIME RH VALUES OF 25%-30% ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.  
DEWPOINTS BEGIN TO RECOVER ON WEDNESDAY REDUCING FIRE WEATHER  
CONCERNS AT LEAST THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.  
 

 
   
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
GA...NONE.  
SC...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
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