810  
FXUS62 KCAE 170247  
AFDCAE  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC  
1047 PM EDT TUE JUL 16 2019  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S  
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL LIMIT  
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK  
PRESSURE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY  
BRINGING INCREASED CHANCES FOR RAINFALL. UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING  
RETURNS OVER THE WEEKEND WITH A LEE TROUGH. THIS PATTERN  
SUPPORTS TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONVECTION EACH DAY. MODELS SUGGEST  
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE EASTERN US EARLY NEXT  
WEEK WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING THE REGION NEAR THE END  
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT ACROSS THE  
SOUTHEAST EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES/PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES  
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT LOWS TO ONCE AGAIN BE ON THE WARM AND MUGGY  
SIDE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S. MORNING LOWS WILL ONLY FALL INTO  
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S. FOR WEDNESDAY, SIMILAR SETUP ACROSS THE  
MIDLANDS AND CSRA AND EXPECT TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN FROM 95 TO  
100 DEGREES ALONG WITH ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION  
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
 
 
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER  
90S WITH POSSIBLY A FEW LOCATIONS REACHING 100 DEGREES. HEAT  
INDEX VALUES ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO RANGE BETWEEN 100 AND 107  
IN THE AFTERNOON.  
 
MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA  
DURING THE NEAR TERM LIMITING THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTIVE  
COVERAGE. ON WEDNESDAY, THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO  
ISOLATED COVERAGE ALONG THE SEABREEZE AND A FEW LINGERING  
STORMS MOVING OFF OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE WEST. THE RIDGE  
WEAKENS SOME THURSDAY WITH A LEE TROUGH ALLOWING SCATTERED  
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. LOWS EACH NIGHT FALL INTO THE LOWER TO  
MIDDLE 70S.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
 
 
THE CENTER OF AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE  
FORECAST AREA LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS PLACES AN  
EASTERLY UPPER-FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE  
WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE  
SOUTHEAST FROM THE EAST BRINGING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE TO THE  
AREA. THIS PATTERN SUPPORTS AN INCREASE IN DIURNAL CONVECTIVE  
ACTIVITY THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM. ABOVE NORMAL  
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS BRING AN UPPER-  
LEVEL TROUGH INTO THE EASTERN US EARLY NEXT WEEK. AN ASSOCIATED  
SURFACE BOUNDARY MAY NEAR THE FORECAST AREA TOWARDS THE END OF  
THE LONG TERM BRINGING A HIGHER CHANCE OF RAINFALL, HIGHER CLOUD  
COVERAGE AND COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
 
 
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 24-HOUR TAF PERIOD.  
 
SURFACE RIDGING WILL EXTEND FROM THE ATLANTIC WESTWARD INTO THE  
GULF OF MEXICO. NORTH OF THIS RIDGE THERE WILL BE LEE TROUGHING  
LOCALLY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG  
HEATING BUT EXPECT LIMITED COVERAGE BECAUSE UPPER RIDGING JUST  
SOUTH OF THE AREA SHOULD HELP KEEP MOISTURE SHALLOW. THE  
THUNDERSTORM CHANCE WAS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TERMINAL  
FORECASTS AT THIS TIME. THE GFS AND NAM MOS PLUS SREF GUIDANCE  
AND CROSSOVER TEMPERATURES DO NOT INDICATE FOG, BUT WE DID  
INCLUDE A PERIOD OF FOG AT AGS BASED ON THE ADDED MOISTURE  
BECAUSE OF A RECENT SHOWER AND WHAT OCCURRED THE PREVIOUS  
MORNING.  
 
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RIDGING EXTENDING FROM THE ATLANTIC  
IS FORECAST TO DOMINATE. THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH  
STRONG HEATING WILL BE SCATTERED. SOME LOCATIONS MAY EXPERIENCE  
EARLY MORNING FOG.  
 

 
   
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
GA...NONE.  
SC...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...99  
NEAR TERM...99  
SHORT TERM...99  
LONG TERM...99  
AVIATION...99  
 
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