616
FXUS62 KCAE 230609
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
209 AM EDT MON MAR 23 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
DECREASING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MONDAY AND AVIATION DISCUSSION
FOR 06Z.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS EXPECTED TODAY AHEAD OF A FRONT
BRINGING A FEW SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
- 2. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR TODAY AND TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS EXPECTED TODAY AHEAD OF A
FRONT BRINGING A FEW SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
BROAD RIDGING FROM THE SURFACE, ALOFT TO OUR SOUTHWEST WILL
PUSH TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 80'S TODAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
FRONT. BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 20 MPH ARE EXPECTED TODAY
WITH DEEP MIXING AND 850MB TEMPS AROUND 15 C. GIVEN THE TIMING
OF THE APPROACHING FRONT, RECORD HIGHS ARE NOT FORECAST BUT THIS
SETUP WILL YIELD SURFACE TEMPS NEARLY 20 DEGREE ABOVE AVERAGE
TOPPING OUT AROUND 90 F, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-20.
THIS SOUTHWARD SINKING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS-
THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF I-20. OVERALL, THE SETUP FOR ANY SEVERE
OR EVEN STRONG THUNDERSTORMS HAS STEADILY WANED FOR THIS FRONT
AS FORCING, INSTABILITY, AND MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WERE VERY
UNLIKELY TO ALL LINE UP. A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL EXPECTED ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN AND
INTO THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS, BUT COVERAGE WILL BE HAMPERED BY
SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR AND A RELATIVE LACK OF INSTABILITY AS A
RESULT. HREF MEMBERS STILL GENERALLY PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING PEAK HEATING AS THE SURFACE FRONT MOVES
ACROSS I-20, BUT ROBUST CONVECTION IS NOT LIKELY AND THEREFORE
THE SEVERE POTENTIAL IS LOW. WHILE THE WEAKER CONVECTION WILL
LIKELY NOT BE ABLE TO OPTIMALLY UTILIZE THE ENVIRONMENT, GIVEN
THE HIGH DCAPE, SOME BRIEF GUSTY WINDS OR SMALL HAIL CANNOT BE
RULED OUT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS, BETWEEN 3-8PM, BUT VERY
LIKELY STAYING BELOW SEVERE CRITERIA.
KEY MESSAGE 2: ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR TODAY AND
TUESDAY.
AFTER THE FRONT PASSES THIS AFTERNOON, DRIER AIR AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FILTER INTO THE AREA. NEAR CRITICAL
TO CRITICAL RH LEVELS ARE ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON- EVENING
AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH TUESDAY LIKELY BEING THE DRIER DAY IN
TERMS OF RH'S. WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO GUST TO 20-25 MPH
MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, AND CLOSE TO THAT ON
TUESDAY. SO GIVEN RELATIVELY DRY FUELS, THERE IS AN INCREASING
FIRE DANGER POTENTIAL STARTING THIS AFTERNOON, THROUGH TUESDAY.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR BUT BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE 24HR FORECAST PERIOD.
AN INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A SURFACE HIGH OVER SOUTH FL
AND LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST IS KEEPING WINDS UP
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. CAE VAD SHOWING A 40+ KNOT LOW
LEVEL JET WHICH NORMALLY WOULD RESULT IN LLWS BUT SURFACE WINDS ARE
10 TO 12 KNOTS AND GUSTING OVER 20 KNOTS. BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS
CONTINUE THROUGH MID MORNING THEN WINDS SHIFT MORE WESTERLY AND
INCREASE TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OVER 25 KNOTS POSSIBLE. A COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE AFTERNOON AND WINDS SHIFT MORE
NORTHWESTERLY AND REMAIN BREEZY INTO THE EVENING WITH WINDS
CONTINUING TO SHIFT TO THE NORTH WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND
REMAIN GUSTY. NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT BUT WILL
INCLUDE VCSH AT OGB WHERE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE BRIEFLY POSSIBLE 20Z
TO 00Z TIME FRAME.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION...HC
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