174
FXUS62 KCAE 270025
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
825 PM EDT FRI JUN 26 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 00Z TAFS. ADJUSTED KEY MESSAGE 2
TO UPDATE CURRENT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. PROLONGED HOT PATTERN EXPECTED WITH DANGEROUS HEAT POSSIBLE THIS
WEEKEND AND A SIGNAL FOR A MORE IMPACTFUL, INTENSE HEAT EVENT
BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
- 2. SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY THROUGH
MONDAY. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: PROLONGED HOT PATTERN EXPECTED WITH DANGEROUS HEAT
POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND AND A SIGNAL FOR A MORE IMPACTFUL, INTENSE
HEAT EVENT BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
GUIDANCE REMAINS IMPRESSIVELY CONSISTENT WITH ITS SIGNAL FOR
PROLONGED HEAT OVER THE NEXT 7-10 DAYS. WV IMAGERY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON REVEALS THE MAJOR PLAYERS COMING INTO PLACE TO SUPPORT
A LONG DURATION PERIOD OF HEAT THROUGHOUT AND BEYOND THIS
FORECAST PERIOD. A WEAK SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO PROGRESS TOWARDS
THE AREA, FORECAST TO CONTINUE WEAKENING AS IT DOES SO. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE, STRETCHING FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC INTO THE GULF
IS BUILDING IN STRENGTH TODAY. FURTHER UPSTREAM, THE DEEP AND
ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS PUSHING INTO THE WESTERN CONUS,
FORECAST TO CONTINUE DIGGING OVER THE COMING DAYS. THIS IS
FORECAST TO YIELD A RAPID AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
THIS WEEKEND, WITH IT RETROGRADING NORTHWEST AND SETTLING IN THE
MID-MS AND OH VALLEY REGION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S THIS WEEKEND SHOULD COMBINE WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 90S TO YIELD HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 103F-106F
ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO HELP ALLEVIATE SOME OF THE HEAT BUT
IT WON'T COMPLETELY ELIMINATE IT. IT IS UNLIKELY THAT WE GET TO
HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT KEEP HEAT SAFETY TIPS AT THE FRONT OF
YOUR MIND IF YOU HAVE OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES!
AS THE RIDGE BUILDS TO THE WEST, WE WILL HAVE A BIT OF A TROUGH
DIG INTO THE EASTERN CONUS BRIEFLY EARLY NEXT WEEK, HELPING TO
COOL TEMPS A BIT ON MONDAY AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY. THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL BE A BIT DRIER, WITH DEWPOINTS MIXING DOWN INTO
THE MID 60S. BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, THOUGH, INTENSE HEAT
CONTINUES TO SHOW UP IN GUIDANCE. THE UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE BUILDING BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, WITH THE RIDGE
AXIS EXPECTED TO SHIFT MORE OVER/ALONG THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS,
WITH HEIGHTS AT THE CORE OF THIS RIDGE FORECAST TO BE IN THE
99TH PERCENTILE FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. ENSEMBLES
ARE NEARLY UNANIMOUS IN SHOWING HIGH PROBABILITIES (80%+) OF
850 HPA TEMPS >20C ARRIVING FOR THE FOURTH OF JULY HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. THIS IS EXPECTED TO PROMOTE HIGHS OF 100F+ EACH OF
JULY 2-4. THE EXTENDED ECE EFI FORECAST FOR TEMPS IN THIS PERIOD
REVEALS EFI VALUES OF 0.8+ AND NON-ZERO SHIFT OF TAILS VALUES,
INDICATIVE OF INTENSE HEAT IN THIS PERIOD. WE CONTINUE TO STRESS
THE NEED TO REVIEW HEAT SAFETY GUIDANCE GIVEN THE NUMBER OF
OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES THAT ARE EXPECTED DURING THE SECOND HALF OF
NEXT WEEK AND INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. GIVEN WE WON'T BE
DIRECTLY UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE, THERE IS A CHANCE THAT CLUSTERS
OF THUNDERSTORMS COULD THROW A WRENCH INTO THIS. HOWEVER, THAT
IS FOR LATER FORECASTS. THE MAIN MESSAGE REMAINS THAT THE
SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN IS REMINISCENT OF INTENSE HEAT WAVES WE
HAVE HAD IN THE PAST, AND THE CURRENT FORECAST SUGGESTS A PERIOD
OF INTENSE HEAT OVERLAPPING WITH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
KEY MESSAGE 2: SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY
THROUGH MONDAY. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
EARLIER CONVECTION CONTINUES TO WANE AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY THAT
TRIGGERED THE STORMS LIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE REGION. HOWEVER,
ABUNDANT INSTABILITY AND LIGHT SHEAR HAS RESULTED IN CONTINUED
BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS SUSTAINING CONVECTION INTO THIS EVENING
MAINLY FOCUSED OVER THE EASTERN MIDLANDS WHERE THE 2+ PWAT AXIS
HAS SHIFTED AND BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS ARE OCCURRING. EXPECT
STORMS TO DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING AS THE ATMOSPHERE
STABILIZES.
MORE SCATTERED CONVECTION EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY (AND
POSSIBLY MONDAY) AS THE COMBINATION OF SURFACE THERMAL TROUGHS &
DECAYING CONVECTION FROM UPSTREAM YIELDS THE POTENTIAL FOR
STORMS EACH AFTERNOON. STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE BOTH DAYS BUT
ARE UNLIKELY TO BE WIDESPREAD. MONDAY'S STORM THREAT IS A BIT
MORE UNCERTAIN AS THE TROUGH DRIVING SUNDAY'S STORMS SHIFTS
EASTWARD. HOWEVER, GUIDANCE IS A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH RAIN
CHANCES THAN IT WAS 24 HOURS AGO, SO THE TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
SHOWERS/STORMS DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH VFR CONDITIONS
RETURNING. BRIEF RESTRICTIONS CANNOT BE RULED OUT SATURDAY
MORNING MAINLY FOR AGS/OGB.
SCATTERED CONVECTION CONTINUES MAINLY NEAR AIK AND SOUTHWARD
TOWARD OGB, BUT IS STARTING TO DIMINISH. BRIEF VSBY IMPACTS
FROM A STORM REMAINS POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT 2 HOURS OR SO BEFORE
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. LINGERING DEBRIS CLOUDINESS IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT AS SOUTHERLY WINDS BECOME LIGHT, BUT THERE IS A
SMALL SIGNAL IN GUIDANCE FOR PATCHY MVFR CEILINGS AND POSSIBLY
SOME LOWER STRATUS CLOSER TO DAYBREAK. CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO
LOW TO ADD IN THE TAF AT THE TIME BEING, BUT THIS POTENTIAL WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. BY THE MID MORNING ANOTHER SCT CUMULUS
DECK AROUND 3500 TO 5000 FT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS WINDS TURN
A BIT MORE WESTERLY AROUND 7-9 KTS. LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND
TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD, ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BECOME POSSIBLE BUT HAVE HELD OFF ON A
PROB30 GROUP FOR NOW DUE TO LIMITED CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...DIURNAL CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS REMAIN POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND INTO THE EARLY WEEK
BEFORE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR LIMITS RAIN CHANCES LATER IN THE WEEK.
BRIEF MORNING VSBY/CIG RESTRICTIONS ALSO POSSIBLE INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...PL/23
AVIATION...DH
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