822  
FXUS62 KCAE 181716  
AFDCAE  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC  
116 PM EDT FRI JUL 18 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE UPCOMING  
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. DAILY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS  
ARE POSSIBLE, WITH INCREASED CONVECTIVE COVERAGE POSSIBLE MONDAY AND  
TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES SLOWLY RETURN TO NORMAL AND HUMIDITY  
DECREASES BY TUESDAY AND INTO THE LATER PART OF THE WEEK.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
 
 
KEY MESSAGE(S):  
 
- HOT AND HUMID THIS AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW  
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.  
 
UPPER RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS  
AFTERNOON ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE 90S. HEAT  
INDICES AT THIS HOUR RANGE FROM THE UPPER 90S TO LOWER 100S AND  
ARE BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA AT THIS TIME. WILL MONITOR CLOSELY  
TO ENSURE THIS TREND HOLDS THROUGH PEAK HEATING. CONVECTION HAS  
ONCE AGAIN OUTPERFORMED MODEL GUIDANCE THIS AFTERNOON WITH  
RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH  
OF THE MIDLANDS. WHILE NO LIGHTNING HAS BEEN DETECTED YET, A FEW  
THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN THE AMPLE MOISTURE AND  
HIGH CAPE VALUES ACROSS THE REGION, ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE  
COAST. ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP, SHOULD  
QUICKLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.  
TEMPERATURES SHOULD PEAK IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S THIS AFTERNOON,  
FALLING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S TONIGHT.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
 
 
KEY MESSAGE(S):  
 
-HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS INCREASE WITH HEAT INDICES OF 100F-108F  
LIKELY EACH DAY.  
 
-ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON  
PERIODS THIS WEEKEND.  
 
THE FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND REMAINS ON TRACK AS SUMMERTIME IS IN  
FULL SWING. THE STRONG UPPER HIGH OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST CONTINUES  
TO CHURN AND RETROGRADE WESTWARD THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. AT THE  
SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH KEEPS MOISTURE TRANSPORT OFF TO  
THE NORTH ON SATURDAY, BUT EVENTUALLY SAGS SOUTHWARD IN THE CWA ON  
SUNDAY. GUIDANCE SHOWS AN INCREASE IN PWATS BY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH  
UPTICKS THROUGH THE END OF THE SHORT TERM. VALUES OF 2.0-2.3  
INCHES ARE LIKELY, INCREASING THE DEWPOINTS AND RAISING THE HEAT  
INDEX (HI) THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ADDITIONALLY, AS HEIGHT RISES  
OCCUR WITH THE SLOW BUILDING RIDGE, DAYTIME TEMPERATURES  
APPROACH TRIPLE DIGITS. THEREFORE, CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR  
HI VALUES OF 100-106 TO BE MET AT SEVERAL LOCATIONS WITHIN THE  
MIDLANDS AND CENTRAL SAVANNAH RIVER AREA. THERE ARE ALSO POCKETS  
OF 108-109 HI, BUT COVERAGE IS SPOTTY. AT THIS TIME, GIVEN THE  
NARROW COVERAGE OF THESE HI VALUES, WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY HEAT  
ADVISORY. ALONG WITH THE HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS, SUBSIDENCE  
ALOFT AND THE LOCATION OF THE HIGH PRESSURE REDUCES SHOWER AND  
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR SATURDAY TO SLIGHT CHANCE (15-30%),  
WITH THE PEE DEE AND CHARLOTTE METRO AREAS HAVING THE BETTER  
CHANCES. BY SUNDAY, INCREASED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE AS THE CWA BECOMES WEDGED BETWEEN HIGH  
PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH, ALLOWING FOR MORE WESTERLY  
FLOW TO FILTER IN. GIVEN THE LIGHT FLOW ALOFT AND MODEST  
INSTABILITY AT THIS SURFACE, THIS SHOULD LEAD TO MORE SCATTERED  
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES (25-40%) ON SUNDAY ACROSS THE  
ENTIRE AREA.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
 
 
KEY MESSAGE(S):  
 
-HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SOME  
RELIEF AFTER TUESDAY.  
 
-SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY INCREASES THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE  
BECOMING MORE TYPICAL FOR SUMMERTIME.  
 
BY MONDAY, THE PATTERN REMAINS ON THE HOT AND HUMID TRACK. AN  
AMPLIFYING RIDGE OUT WEST MIGRATES EASTWARD, INCREASING HEIGHTS  
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. MONDAY LOOKS TO BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE  
HIGH PRESSURE, PROVIDING AN INCREASE IN CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS AS EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES RIDING ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE  
OF THE HIGH SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY  
AS TO WHERE THE RIDGE AXIS SETS UP AND HOW FAR EAST THE EASTERN EDGE  
EXTENDS, BUT EITHER WAY, SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE CHANCES  
ARE THERE FOR MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY. BY MIDWEEK, A WEAK TROUGH OFF  
THE EAST COAST SLOWLY MOVES OUT, ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH  
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE TO BUILD INTO THE NORTHEAST. GUIDANCE AT  
THIS TIME SHOWS A DECREASE IN MOISTURE ADVECTION AS NE SURFACE FLOW  
COULD FILTER IN DRIER AIR. THIS WOULD BE A MILD RELIEF TO THE HOT  
AND HUMID CONDITIONS AND BRING TEMPERATURES DOWN TO MORE NORMAL  
VALUES FOR JULY THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. WITH THE  
DRIER AIR FROM THE NORTHEAST AND THE RIDGE AXIS MOVING OVER THE  
SOUTHEAST, SUBSIDENCE ALOFT LOOKS TO REDUCE THE DAILY DIURNALLY  
DRIVEN CONVECTION INTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE (15-35%) WEDNESDAY  
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST, WHICH IS MORE TYPICAL FOR THE AREA  
DURING THIS TIME.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
 
 
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS FROM SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE THIS  
AFTERNOON....  
 
SCT CUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE CONTINUED TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST FEW  
HOURS WITH RADAR NOW SHOWING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW  
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. BRIEF RESTRICTIONS ARE  
POSSIBLE AT ANY TERMINAL THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD A SHOWER OR  
THUNDERSTORM PASS OVER. WILL ADD A PROB30 TO CAE/CUB/OGB FOR  
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS BASED ON  
RECENT SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS. ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY  
SHOULD DIMINISH AROUND 00Z WITH LIGHT WINDS AND PASSING HIGH  
CLOUDS EXPECTED TONIGHT. THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS AND FOG  
NEAR DAYBREAK APPEARS LOW AT THIS TIME. RENEWED SHOWER ACTIVITY  
IS POSSIBLE NEAR THE END OF THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD.  
 
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SEASONAL RESTRICTIONS CONTINUE WITH  
ISOLATED CONVECTION AND PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS  
POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK  
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SURFACE BOUNDARY.  
 

 
   
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
SC...NONE.  
GA...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
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