352
FXUS62 KCAE 150536
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
136 AM EDT TUE SEP 15 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. AVIATION UPDATED FOR 06Z
TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL USHER IN DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
AIR THROUGH THE MIDDLE TO END OF THIS WEEK.
- 2. INCREASING MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES BY THE END OF THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL USHER IN DRIER AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR THROUGH THE MIDDLE TO END OF THIS WEEK.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH IN THE PATTERN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. EXTREME 500 HPA RIDGE REMAINS SETTLED OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN US, WITH NAEFS AND LREF 500 HPA HEIGHTS AT THE
100TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. DESPITE THIS, OUR
WEATHER LOOKS QUITE PLEASANT THROUGH FRIDAY OWING TO A BACKDOOR
FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY MARCHING THROUGH THE AREA. HIGHS LOOK
CLOSER TO NORMAL - IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S - OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS BUT THE HUMIDITY WILL BE THE MAJOR STORY. BELOW
NORMAL PWS, PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE, AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WILL RESULT
IN FAIRLY ROBUST MIXING OF THE DRY AIRMASS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CAROLINAS. AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS WED/THUR ARE EXPECTED TO FALL
INTO THE 50S, AND THIS DRY AIRMASS WILL FOSTER LOWS EACH MORNING
IN THE 60S! IT WILL BE A BRIEF REPRIEVE BUT A WELL DESERVED ONE
NONETHELESS.
KEY MESSAGE 2: INCREASING MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES BY THE END
OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE PERSISTENT UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN BY THE
WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA FROM NORTH
SATURDAY. A WEAK INVERTED UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO RETROGRADE
BENEATH THE UPPER RIDGE AND INTO THE NORTHERN GULF BY THE
WEEKEND. THE COMBINATION OF THESE TWO THINGS WILL LEAD TO AN
INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW, WITH LREF MEMBERS ALL
SHOWING 75TH-85TH PERCENTILE PWS ARRIVING BACK IN THE AREA BY
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE INVERTED TROUGH IS LIKELY TO SLOWLY LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER LIKELY TO
RETURN AS A RESULT.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD, ALTHOUGH SOME MVFR CEILINGS
COULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
A FRONT HAS SAGGED SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING AND
WHILE DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE IN BEHIND THE
FRONT, LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH DEEP LAYER DRY AIR
ALOFT WILL LEAD TO SOME RESTRICTIONS DEVELOPING EARLY THIS
MORNING, ALREADY EVIDENT ALONG THE SC COAST WHERE MVFR CEILINGS
ARE BEGINNING TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE. BLENDED AND HI-RES
GUIDANCE FAVOR MVFR CEILINGS AT CAE/CUB WITH TEMPO RESTRICTIONS
AT OGB AND AIK. A BIT MORE UNCERTAINTY FOR THE AUGUSTA TERMINALS
WHERE STRATUS LIKELY WILL NOT REACH THERE AFTER SUNRISE AND WILL
HAVE HIGHER CHANCE OF MIXING OUT BEFORE RESTRICTIONS DEVELOP.
HAVE LEFT A MENTION OF SCATTERED CLOUDS BELOW 2KFT. DRIER AIR
CONTINUES TO FILTER IN LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON BEHIND
THE FRONT WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AND WINDS OUT OF THE NE
SHIFTING MORE EASTERLY BETWEEN 5 TO 10 KNOTS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RAIN AND RESTRICTIONS UNLIKELY FOR
MUCH OF THE WEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...PL
AVIATION...96
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page