039
FXUS62 KCAE 281709
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
109 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED BOTH KEY MESSAGES FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS, BUT THE
OVERALL PATTERN REMAINS THE SAME. AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED
FOR 18Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON
TODAY AND TOMORROW. A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
LATER TODAY.
- 2. DANGEROUS HEAT POSSIBLE TODAY AND TOMORROW, WITH A SIGNAL
FOR A MORE IMPACTFUL AND INTENSE HEAT EVENT DURING THE
OPENING DAYS OF JULY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE ON TODAY AND TOMORROW. A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE LATER TODAY.
A DECAYING MCV HAS MOVED OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND
WILL CONTINUE PROGRESSING INTO THE FA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HI-RES GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE
A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING IN FROM THE UPSTATE, WITH THE
GREATEST IMPACTS EXPECTED ALONG THE I-26 CORRIDOR AND ACROSS
ACROSS LOCATIONS NORTH AND EAST.
SPC HAS UPGRADED THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA TO A SLIGHT RISK
(LEVEL 2 OF 5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER. CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH THE HIGHEST THREAT OCCURRING BETWEEN
3-8PM. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO DEPICT INVERTED V
PROFILES WITH DCAPE VALUES RANGING FROM 750-1000 J/KG,
SUPPORTING THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS. LONG,
SKINNY CAPE PROFILES COMBINED WITH HIGH PWAT VALUES WILL ALSO
FAVOR PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL. WHILE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR THE ENTIRE AREA, COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO
DECREASE QUICKLY HAS IT HEADS CLOSER TOWARD THE CSRA.
LINGERING MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS ON MONDAY, ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE IS
LOWER. THE SEVER THREAT IS ALSO EXPECTED TO DIMINISHING AS THE
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE INCHES CLOSER TO THE REGION.
KEY MESSAGE 2: DANGEROUS HEAT POSSIBLE TODAY AND TOMORROW, WITH
A SIGNAL FOR A MORE IMPACTFUL AND INTENSE HEAT EVENT DURING THE
OPENING DAYS OF JULY.
HEAT INDICES THIS AFTERNOON ARE SITTING RIGHT AROUND 100-104
DEGREES AS DEW POINTS REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. HOT AND
HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO MONDAY AS THE RIDGE
STRENGTHENS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS, PROMOTING A STEADY WARMING
TREND WHILE SUPPRESSING MOST CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. A HEAT
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE CSRA ON MONDAY, WHERE
PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES COULD APPROACH 108- 110 DEGREES IN THE
AFTERNOON BUT THIS MAY BE LIMITED IF DIURNAL CONVECTION STARTS
TO DEVELOP.
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO FILTER INTO THE REGION DURING
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, RESULTING IN SOMEWHAT LOWER HEAT INDEX
VALUES, ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL. BY
LATE WEEK AND INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND, THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
WILL START TO REALLY FLEX AND STRENGTHEN FURTHER, WITH 850-MB
TEMPERATURES APPROACHING OR EXCEEDING 20C. THIS PATTERN WILL
SUPPORT A CONTINUED WARMING TREND, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS STEADILY
CLIMBING AND SEVERAL LOCATIONS POTENTIALLY REACHING OR
EXCEEDING 100 DEGREES FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. HEAT INDICES
COULD SOAR CLOSE TO OR ABOVE 105 DEGREES. IF TRENDS CONTINUE,
HEAT PRODUCTS MAY BE NEEDED SEVERAL DAYS IN A ROW. BE SURE TO
MAKE HEAT SAFETY PREPARATIONS NOW AND HAVE A PLAN TO MONITOR
CHILDREN, THE ELDERLY, PETS, AND ANYONE WITHOUT ADEQUATE INDOOR
COOLING.
THE NHC MAINTAINS A 20% CHANCE FOR CYCLONE FORMATION OVER THE
NEXT 7 DAYS OFF THE SC COAST. HOWEVER, GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF
ON THIS QUITE A BIT WITH DEVELOPMENT FAIRLY LOW.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY OUTSIDE OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION SUNDAY.
CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO DO THE SKY THIS AFTERNOON AND
INSTABILITY INCREASES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS, WITH SOME CAPABLE OF 30-40 KNOT OR
GREATER WINDS. HANDLING THIS WITH A PROB30 AT ALL SITES RIGHT
NOW BUT MAY NEED TO SHIFT TO A TEMPO GROUP AS THUNDERSTORMS
INCREASE IN COVERAGE. WINDS AHEAD OF THIS CONTINUE TO LOOK
BREEZY, WITH 15-20 KNOT GUSTS OUT OF THE WEST OR WEST-SOUTHWEST
THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO WANE AFTER
SUNSET. PATCHY FOG IS AGAIN POSSIBLE TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY WHERE
RAIN DOES FALL. AS WE GET INTO THE LATTER PORTION OF THIS
FORECAST PERIOD, LOOK FOR WINDS TO SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST BEHIND A BACKDOOR FRONT.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP
AGAIN MONDAY BUT IS LESS LIKELY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK
AS RIDGING BUILDS OVERHEAD. BRIEF EARLY MORNING RESTRICTIONS
ALSO POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ND
AVIATION...PL
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