696
FXUS62 KCAE 061045
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
645 AM EDT TUE OCT 6 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATES TO KEY MESSAGES. AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 12Z
TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. SOME AREAS OF FOG THIS MORNING. COOLER TEMPS INTO MID-
WEEK. WARMING AND WETTER PATTERN DEVELOPS INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: SOME AREAS OF FOG THIS MORNING. COOLER TEMPS
INTO MID-WEEK. WARMING AND WETTER PATTERN DEVELOPS INTO THE
WEEKEND.
CLEARING SKIES, LIGHT WINDS, AND LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
HAVE ALLOWS SOME AREAS OF FOG TO FORM ACROSS THE MIDLANDS AND
CSRA THIS MORNING. SOME VISIBILITIES BELOW 1 MILE WILL BE
ENCOUNTERED, BUT THIS SHOULD NOT BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH FOR ANY
DENSE FOG ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. CURRENT HAVE A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT OUT THROUGH 13Z TO COVER WHAT IS CURRENTLY OUT THERE.
FOG SHOULD BEGIN TO BURN OFF BY 13Z, WHICH IS WHAT THE HRRR HAS
BEEN INDICATING ONCE MIXING GETS GOING.
OTHERWISE, PLEASANT AUTUMN WEATHER WITH A DRIER SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY,
WITH PWATS DROPPING TO AROUND 0.50 INCHES. PERSISTENT
NORTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW INTO THE MID- WEEK SHOULD KEEP
TEMPERATURES NEAR TO JUST BELOW NORMAL WITH DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED. WEAK SURFACE RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE
LATE WEEK ALONG WITH SOME BUILDING HEIGHTS AND TEMPS RETURNING
TO NEAR-ABOVE AVERAGE.
ATTENTION TURNS TO A MORE ACTIVE WEEKEND AS MOISTURE RETURNS
ACROSS THE REGION WITH SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE HAS STRUGGLED WITH THE TIMING OF 92L,
CURRENTLY IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND NOW AT 80% PROBS OF
DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT 7 DAYS PER THE NHC, CONFIDENCE IS
INCREASING IN A TROPICAL CONNECTION TO THIS FLOW, WITH 18Z RUN
OF THE ECMWF JOINING THE GFS IN DEVELOPING IT INTO A TC AND
TRACKING NORTH INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST BY THIS WEEKEND OR
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BE THE KEY COMPONENT TO WHETHER WE
SEE APPRECIABLE RAIN WITH THIS SETUP. WITHOUT ANY TROPICAL
COMPONENT, A BROAD SURFACE RIDGING WITH A WEDGE SETUP WILL BUILD
AND ALLOW FOR WIDESPREAD BUT WEAK OVERRUNNING WITH WEAK
SYNOPTIC FORCING (NOT DISSIMILAR TO LAST WEEKEND...) AND
THEREFORE A GENERALLY LOW QPF SETUP. WITH A TROPICAL-SYNOPTIC
SHORTWAVE TO HELP DRIVE BOTH ENHANCEMENT OF PWATS AND OMEGA, A
MORE NOTABLE RAIN EVENT WOULD BE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY & OVERRUNNING FAVORABILITY IN PLACE. EARLY
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE RUNS HAVE SIGNALED THAT
ENHANCED PRECIP TOTALS WOULD BE MOST FAVORED ALONG THE GA/SC
COAST WITH INTERACTION WITH A COASTAL FRONT UNDER THIS SETUP.
DESPITE SOME INCREASING CONFIDENCE THIS EVENING, SOLUTIONS
REMAIN MESSY AT THIS POINT AND UNTIL A STEADY STATE SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPS IN THE GULF, UNCERTAINTY WILL REMAIN HIGH WITH THIS
SETUP.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
WITH CLEARING CIRRUS MOVING OUT, THERE HAVE BEEN SOME AREAS OF
LOW STRATUS AND FOG FORMATION EARLY THIS MORNING. GREATEST
IMPACTS WILL BE SEEN IN THE CENTRAL MIDLANDS SITES OF CAE/CUB
WHERE CEILINGS BELOW 400FT AND VISIBILITIES BELOW 2SM SHOULD BE
MOVING IN AT THIS TIME. OTHER SITES ARE CURRENTLY VFR, BUT EVEN
THEY COULD SEE BRIEF RESTRICTIONS THROUGH SUNRISE AT ANY TIME.
ONCE BETTER MIXING STARTS TOWARDS 13Z, CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
TO BEGIN IMPROVING BACK TOWARDS VFR AT ALL LOCATIONS. WINDS
WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE EAST/NORTHEAST AROUND 10 KNOTS BY 15Z.
A FEW GUSTS UP TO 15 KNOTS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT THROUGH THE DAY
BEFORE WINDS DIMINISH PRIOR TO SUNSET ONCE AGAIN.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO
THE MID TO LATE WEEK WITH DRIER AIR IN PLACE. RESTRICTIONS MAY
BECOME POSSIBLE BY THE WEEKEND.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SF/23
AVIATION...73
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