909
FXUS62 KCAE 070527
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
127 AM EDT WED OCT 7 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
PRIMARILY HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL RAINFALL THIS UPCOMING
WEEKEND. AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 06Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. A WETTER PATTERN DEVELOPS INTO THE WEEKEND WITH SOME
TROPICAL CONNECTIONS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: A WETTER PATTERN DEVELOPS INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
SOME TROPICAL CONNECTIONS.
GOING INTO THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
THE BIGGEST ISSUE IS GOING TO REVOLVE AROUND THE RETURN OF
RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION. RAIN CHANCES ARE GOING TO INCREASE
AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND, MAINLY DUE TO AN INCREASE IN DEEPER
MOISTURE COMING BOTH FROM THE ATLANTIC AND GULF. THIS WILL BE
FUELED BY THE CURRENT TROPICAL DEPRESSION 9 (TD9), WHICH IS
CURRENTLY STILL DEVELOPING IN THE WESTERN GULF. GUIDANCE THE
PAST SEVERAL DAYS HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT WITH THIS SYSTEM
CONTINUING TO STRENGTHEN AND EVENTUALLY TRACK TOWARDS THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION LATER THIS WEEK. THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER HAS THIS SYSTEM GENERALLY FOLLOWING THAT
PATTERN AND TRACK. ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK, EAST OF THE
TROPICAL SYSTEM, DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE PULLED NORTHWARD AND
INLAND ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF COAST REGION LATER THIS WEEK.
MEANWHILE, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WILL BE BRINGING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE WESTWARD AND
INLAND ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. THE DETERMINISTIC AND EVEN
SOME OF THE AI MODELS, DIFFER IN THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THE
TROPICAL SYSTEM, BUT IN REGARDS TO THE MOISTURE INCREASE INTO
THE WEEKEND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA, THAT APPEARS TO BE OF A
MUCH HIGHER CONFIDENCE. THIS WOULD BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR
IMPACTFUL HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND, AND DUE TO
THIS WPC HAS INTRODUCED SLIGHT RISK FOR ERO FOR MUCH OF THE FA
FOR SATURDAY. WITH ALL THAT BEING SAID, THIS EVENT IS STILL
SEVERAL DAYS OUT, AND THE TRACK OF THIS TROPICAL SYSTEM IS STILL
BEING HASHED OUT BY NHC. OBVIOUSLY ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
EITHER THE INTENSITY OR THE TRACK OF THE EVENTUAL STORM, COULD
BRING SOME CHANGES TO THE RAINFALL FORECAST AND HEAVY RAINFALL
POTENTIAL, SO IT IS BEST TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS SYSTEM AS
IT MOVES THROUGH THE GULF. FINER SCALE DETAILS WILL DETERMINE IF
THIS WOULD JUST BE A BENEFICIAL RAIN OR MORE OF A FLOODING
THREAT.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
A DRY AIR MASS WITH ONLY A SOME PASSING HIGH CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO DOMINATE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
WHILE IR SATELLITE REVEALS A BROKEN DECK OF STRATUS AT
4000-5000 FT CURRENTLY PUSHING NORTHWESTWARD FROM THE COAST
INTO THE EASTERN MIDLANDS, RESTRICTIONS FROM FOG AND LOW STRATUS
ARE NOT EXPECTED AT TERMINALS TONIGHT, THOUGH A FEW LOCALIZED
AREAS OF PATCHY GROUND FOG MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE RIVERS.
OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY WITH
CONTINUING LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS AND ONLY A FEW PASSING CIRRUS
CLOUDS. WINDS SHOULD FALL CALM WEDNESDAY NIGHT, SO A FEW AREAS
OF PATCHY FOG CANNOT BE RULED OUT AGAIN.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO
LATE WEEK WITH A DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE. AS MOISTURE INCREASES
THIS WEEKEND, RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH INCREASING CLOUD
COVER AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...SF
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