055
FXUS62 KCAE 271755
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
155 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SATURDAY AS CONFIDENCE
CONTINUES TO INCREASE FOR POTENTIAL CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AS STRONG WINDS MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT. 18Z AVIATION
UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS
WITH EXTREMELY DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED STARTING
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR CRITICAL FIRE
CONDITIONS WITH EXTREMELY DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
STARTING FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
A SOUTHWARD SINKING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS,
WITH A STEADILY TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE AHEAD.
WINDS THROUGHOUT FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL GUST OVER 20
MPH AS A RESULT, OUT OF THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH OVERNIGHT AND WILL QUICKLY SHIFT WINDS OUT OF THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST BY SATURDAY MORNING, WITH STRONGER GUSTS
DEVELOPING WITHIN THE 850MB JET BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT. GUSTS
OVER 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED STARTING LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND
THROUGHOUT SATURDAY MORNING; THESE GUSTS WILL STEADILY WEAKEN
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALONG WITH THE GUSTS, EXTREMELY
DRY AIR WILL FUNNEL BEHIND THE FRONT WITH DEW POINTS DIPPING
DOWN INTO THE TEENS THROUGHOUT MUCH OF SATURDAY. WITH SOME
WARMING TEMPS LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON, THIS WILL PUSH RH'S
DOWN BELOW 20% IN MOST SPOTS FOR SEVERAL HOURS. WHILE CRITICAL
FIRE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED, THE STRONGEST GUSTS WILL LIKELY BE
IN THE MORNING WHILE THE LOWEST RH'S WILL BE IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON. BUT STILL, A SUSTAINED PERIOD OF 25+ MPH WINDS AND
RH LESS 25% IS EXPECTED STARTING SATURDAY MORNING AND THROUGHOUT
THE AFTERNOON. WHILE DEW POINT RECOVERY WILL BE SLOW SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING, WINDS TURN OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL HELP TICK RH'S BACK TO AROUND 30%
ALONG WITH LIGHTER WINDS.
IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE RED FLAG WARNING, SC AND GA HAVE ISSUED
BURN BAN NOTICES STARTING THIS EVENING UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.
A SOUTHWARD SINKING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE TAF SITES LATER
THIS EVENING, WITH WINDS SHIFTING FROM SOUTHEASTERLY TO
NORTHERLY BETWEEN 0200-0500Z. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THE FRONT BUT SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF CAE AND CUB. ONLY SOME
MID-LEVEL STRATOCU IS EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT AT THE TAF SITES.
GUSTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL STILL PUSH OVER 20 KNOTS WITH
SOME STRONGER GUSTS CLOSER TO 30 KNOTS OUT OF THE NORTH AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. CONSISTENT GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH ROUGHLY 18Z SATURDAY BEFORE STEADILY
WEAKENING INTO THE EVENING.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SOME GUSTY WINDS WILL LIKELY LINGER
INTO SATURDAY EVENING BUT OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH NO NOTABLE WEATHER SYSTEMS EXPECTED
BEYOND FRIDAY NIGHT.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 2 PM EDT SATURDAY
FOR SCZ016-018-020>022-025>031-035-037-038-041-115-116-
135>137.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 8 AM TO 11 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR SCZ016-
018-020>022-025>031-035-037-038-041-115-116-135>137.
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 2 PM EDT SATURDAY
FOR GAZ040-063>065-077.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 8 AM TO 11 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR GAZ040-
063>065-077.
DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION...42
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