294
FXUS62 KCAE 280658
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
258 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TRENDING DOWNWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THIS WEEKEND.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. DAILY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEK, WITH ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: DAILY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEK, WITH ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE.
A FEW LATE EVENING SHOWERS FROM EARLIER HAVE STARTED TO
DIMINISH AS WE HEAD INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY. AS
THE UPPER TROUGH OFF THE EAST COAST BEGINS TO DEEPEN, A BACK
DOOR FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHWARD INTO THE FA LATER TODAY. PWATS
WILL STILL REMAIN IN THE 1.5-2" RANGE, BUT THE RICH MOISTURE
FLOW THAT WAS IN PLACE THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS HAS STARTED TO
SHIFT ORIENTATION FURTHER NORTH AND EAST AS MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
TO WESTERLY FLOW SETTLES INTO THE AREA.
THE LATEST GUIDANCE HAS STARTED TO TREND A BIT DRIER AS THE
FRONT STARTS TO PUSH DRY NORTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW ACROSS
MOST OF THE CWA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, THERE IS STILL A
DECENT AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE IN THE AIR MASS TO
WARRANT A CONCERN OF STORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. MOST CAMS SHOW
MINIMAL ACTIVITY IN THE LATEST 00Z RUN, BUT I WOULD STILL
EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP FROM THE
UPSTATE AND TRAVERSE INTO THE MIDLANDS/CSRA DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. UP TO ~2000 J/KG OF CAPE ACROSS THE
AREA MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A STORM OR TWO TO BECOME SEVERE. BUT,
OVERALL THE THREAT WILL REMAIN LOW. DOWNBURSTS WITH PRECIP
LOADING AS WELL AS DAMAGING WINDS WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS ARE
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE, BUT FLASH FLOODING WITH TRAINING STORMS IS
THE MOST LIKELY THREAT GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL WE HAVE SEEN
IN PLACES THE PAST FEW DAYS.
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND IS MORE UNCERTAIN. GUIDANCE IS MIXED
ON WHERE THIS BACKDOOR FRONT ENDS UP. THERE IS A RANGE OF
POSSIBILITIES, FROM THE RRFS-MPAS WHICH PUSHES THE FRONT CLEAR
INTO CENTRAL GA TO THE ECMWF WHICH HANGS IT UP IN THE WESTERN
MIDLANDS. THIS WILL MAINLY MODULATE RAIN CHANCES FRIDAY/SATURDAY
AS IT IS LIKELY THAT THIS FRONT BEGINS WASHING OUT A BIT AND
LIFTING NORTHWARD OVER THE WEEKEND. GIVEN OUR SATURATED SOILS
CURRENTLY, ANY AREAS THAT DO SEE REPEAT ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS
THIS WEEKEND WILL HAVE A FLASH FLOOD THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH
THEM. PWATS GREATER THAN 2" WILL PROMOTE MORE EFFICIENT
RAINFALL. WHILE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY FRI-
MON, THE BEST CHANCES APPEAR TO BE IN THE CSRA ON FRIDAY AND
THEN THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA ON SATURDAY WITH
BETTER CHANCES OVERSPREADING THE AREA THEREAFTER. MODELS ARE
SUGGESTING SATURDAY TO BE MORE OF A STRATIFORM RAIN EVENT. A
MORE ROBUST FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH ON MONDAY AS GUIDANCE BEGINS
TO SUGGEST A PROLONGED PERIOD OF DRYING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK, GIVING US A BREAK FROM THE ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL. TEMPS
WILL ALSO TREND DOWNWARD A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL WITH DEWPOINTS
DECREASING AS WELL, GIVING US A BIT MORE OF A PLEASANT START TO
JUNE.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH BRIEF RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE EACH MORNING. DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AND MAY PERIODS OF BRING HEAVY RAIN, REDUCED VISIBILITY
AND GUSTY WINDS.
LIMITED RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING. GUIDANCE
HAS BEEN PERSISTENT SHOWING NO OR VERY BRIEF VSBY/CIG
RESTRICTIONS DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS. HOWEVER WITH SHALLOW LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE AND SOME RAINFALL THE PREVIOUS DAY WE
HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR VSBY AND/OR CIG RESTRICTIONS
DURING THE 010Z-12Z TIME FRAME.
ANY RESTRICTIONS IN THE MORNING SHOULD LIFT BY 15Z AS WINDS
PICK UP FROM THE WEST AROUND 6 TO 10 KNOTS AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING BACKDOOR FRONT. SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE CAROLINAS IN THE EVENING. NORTH WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP
TONIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH AND DRIER AIR PUSHES INTO THE
REGION. DEPENDING ON THE LOCATION OF THE FRONT THERE COULD BE
FOG OR STRATUS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOW
AT THIS POINT SO WE HAVE NOT INCLUDED IT IN THE TAFS FOR NOW.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND AS A FRONT SETTLES OVER THE REGION.
THE GREATEST RAINFALL AND EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS CHANCES WILL
BE FAVORED ACROSS THE CSRA AND SOUTHERN MIDLANDS.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ND
AVIATION...CJR
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