026
FXUS62 KCAE 101901
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
301 PM EDT WED JUN 10 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
CONFIDENCE INCREASING IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LATE THIS
WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND. AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 18Z
TAF.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND THURSDAY, RAIN CHANCES
INCREASE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- 2. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LIKELY FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND THURSDAY, RAIN
CHANCES INCREASE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS DIRECTING MOIST, SW FLOW INTO THE REGION. RIDGING WILL
LIMIT OUR CONVECTIVE COVERAGE DESPITE AMPLE MOISTURE AND STRONG
HEATING. PWAT VALUES AT 110 TO 130 PERCENT OF NORMAL AND
SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S WILL LEAD TO PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. STRONG HEATING SHOULD LEAD TO A FEW
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING UP TO
AROUND 1000 J/KG OF SBCAPE IN THE AFTERNOON. POOR LAPSE RATES
SUGGEST THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE LOW.
FRIDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND, HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS AND ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE IS REINFORCED, WITH PWAT VALUES OVER 1.75". MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE BETTER INSTABILITY OF OVER 1500 J/KG SBCAPE,
WHILE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS STRENGTHEN PARTICULARLY SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY, LEADING TO INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN BETTER CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE. EARLY THOUGHTS GLEANED FROM ENSEMBLE PATTERNS AND IVT
FORECASTS ARE THAT THE ACTIVE PATTERN WITH ABOVE NORMAL MOISTURE
WILL PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 2: ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LIKELY FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY.
WITH STRONG RIDGING AND MOIST SW FLOW OVER THE REGION WE WILL
SEE HEAT INDEX VALUES BREAK INTO THE TRIPLE DIGITS LATE THIS
WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND. NBM PROBABILITIES OF REACHING
HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 108 ARE LOW, GENERALLY LESS THAN 20
TO 30 PERCENT. THAT SAID, EARLY SEASON HEAT CAN LEAD TO A
GREATER RISK OF HEAT ILLNESS THAN SIMILAR HI VALUES LATER IN
THE SUMMER. THIS COMBINED WITH AN EXPERIMENTAL HEAT RISK
CATEGORY OF MAJOR (3 OUT OF 4) FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY RAISES CONCERN FOR HEAT RELATED
ILLNESSES.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD
OUTSIDE OF ANY ISOLATED SHOWER/STORMS THIS AFTERNOON.
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE AS 6-9 KT WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
DEVELOP. SCT CUMULUS ARE SEEN AS WELL WITH MID TO HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS STREAMING IN. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS DEVELOP TONIGHT. THE OVERALL
FOG/STRATUS RISK IS A BIT LOWER TONIGHT WITH A 20-25 KT LLJ IN
PLACE, THOUGH PERIODIC GROUND FOG NEAR AGS CANNOT FULLY BE RULED
OUT. MORE HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO ROLL THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER CUMULUS DECK LIKELY
DEVELOPS AFTER 15-17Z. LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE OUT OF THE
SOUTH TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY. IN TERMS OF RAIN
CHANCES, A COUPLE SPOTTY SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON BUT CONFIDENCE IN IMPACTS AT THE TAF SITES IS LOW AT
THIS TIME.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
DIURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON LATE THIS WEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CJR
AVIATION...DH
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