240
FXUS62 KCAE 230541
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
141 AM EDT WED SEP 23 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
LOWERED TEMPS AND POPS FOR TODAY AND TOMORROW. REMOVED KEY
MESSAGE FOCUSED ON YESTERDAY'S WEATHER. AVIATION DISCUSSION
UPDATED FOR 06Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND,WITH
PERIODS OF LIGHT SHOWERS MAINLY TODAY AND THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT SHOWERS MAINLY TODAY AND
THURSDAY.
A WEDGE WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND GEORGIA TODAY,
ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO SINK FARTHER SOUTH EARLY THIS MORNING
AS SEEN BY THE NORTHERLY SHIFT AND PICKUP IN WINDS. THE POSITION
AND STRENGTH OF THIS FRONT WILL PLAY A LARGE ROLE IN PRECIP
COVERAGE, CLOUD COVER, AND HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TOMORROW.
WITH CAD CONDITIONS BECOMING INCREASINGLY ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE
CWA, LOW CLOUDS AND OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE SHOULD BE
THE THEME TODAY. MAX TEMPS WILL BE SHARPLY COOLER, RANGING FROM
THE LOW 70S ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES TO UPPER 70S ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES, WHERE AREAS MAY REMAIN JUST OUTSIDE OF THE
WEDGE. PRECIP TODAY AND TOMORROW SHOULD BE MAINLY STRATIFORM
WITH A FEW EMBEDDED SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT TIMES. WITH THAT BEING
SAID, POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TOMORROW HAVE LOWERED COMPARED
TO PREVIOUS FORECASTS.
THE WEDGE WILL FULLY OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE REGION OVERNIGHT,
BRINGING LOWS WELL DOWN INTO THE 60S. BREEZY WINDS SHOULD BECOME
A BIT GUSTIER ON THURSDAY AS BETTER FLOW DEVELOPS ALOFT. AS THE
LOW DRIFTS FARTHER EAST AND EVENTUALLY OFF THE COAST,
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING COLD AIR ADVECTION, WHICH SHOULD
EVENTUALLY ERODE THE WEDGE THROUGH SOME PORTION OF THE DAY ON
FRIDAY. WITH THAT BEING SAID, MODELS TEND TO HANDLE THE
PROGRESSION OF CAD POORLY AND I WOULD EXPECTED AT LEAST THE
START OF FRIDAY TO REMAIN COOL AND CLOUDY. HIGHS WILL THEN
SLOWLY REBOUND CLOSER TO NORMAL AS PRECIP AND CLOUD-FREE
CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. MAX TEMPS WILL REACH THE
UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOW 60S. DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOW 50S, MAKING IT FEEL
QUITE PLEASANT OUT THERE FOR THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER, THE WARMING
TREND SHOULD CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES
EVENTUALLY RISING BACK TO AROUND NORMAL AS MORE HUMID AIR
RETURNS.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
A COLD FRONT IS PUSHING THROUGH THE MIDLANDS AND INTO THE CSRA
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL QUICKLY USHER IN WEDGE CONDITIONS, BRINGING
IFR CEILINGS TO ALL SITES BETWEEN 06-08Z, WITH THOSE RESTRICTIONS
THEN EXPECTED TO REMAIN FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
WINDS SHIFTING TO NORTH/NORTHEASTERLY AROUND 5 KNOTS RIGHT
BEHIND THE FRONT, THEN PICKUP UP TO BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 15 KNOTS POSSIBLE AFTER 08Z AS THE BETTER PUSH OF
COOLER AIR BEGINS TO MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. WITH THE WINDS,
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS WILL BE MINIMAL, BUT AS STATED ABOVE,
IFR CEILINGS WILL DOMINATE THE FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS CONTINUE
INTO THURSDAY AS WEDGE CONDITIONS REMAIN OVER THE REGION WITH
SHOWERS POSSIBLE. DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED BEGINNING FRIDAY
BUT LOW CEILINGS MAY PERSIST LONGER THAN MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ND
AVIATION...73
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