868
FXUS62 KCAE 142329
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
729 PM EDT WED OCT 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED KEY MESSAGE 1 TO REMOVE MENTION OF DAYTIME CURRENT
CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES TO KEY MESSAGES. AVIATION
DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 00Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. DRY, WARM WEATHER FAVORED THROUGH THE WEEK.
- 2. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT, USHERING IN COOLER AUTUMNAL WEATHER THIS
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: NEAR-RECORD WARMTH THROUGH FRIDAY.
SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE WARM AIR
TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE SITS
OVER THE SOUTHEAST WITH THE LREF AND NAEFS BOTH SHOWING 500MB
HEIGHTS AT THE 99TH PERCENTILE. HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE UPPER-80S TO
NEAR 90 DEGREES THROUGH FRIDAY WITH LOWS IN THE MID-50S TO LOW-60S.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR RECORD TERRITORY AS NORMAL HIGHS ARE
IN THE UPPER-70S. PWATS ARE GENERALLY AROUND AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR AS DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST LEADING TO MINIMAL HUMIDITY AND NO
HEAT INDICES.
KEY MESSAGE 2: A STRONG COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT, USHERING IN COOLER AUTUMNAL WEATHER THIS
WEEKEND.
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
SWEEP ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HEADING INTO THIS WEEKEND, USHERING IN A
MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AUTUMN AIRMASS. A DEVELOPING TROUGH CURRENTLY
OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES WILL DIG SOUTHEASTWARD AND DEEPEN ACROSS
THE CENTRAL US OVER THE NEXT 2 DAYS, PUSHING THE FRONT EASTWARD
ALONG WITH IT. THIS WILL OCCUR IN CONJUNCTION WITH A STRONG,
ANOMALOUS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING OUT OF THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
INTO THE MID- ATLANTIC BY THIS WEEKEND. WITH A STOUT CAP AND
PRACTICALLY NO CAPE PRESENT, THIS WILL A RELATIVELY DRY FRONT WITH
LITTLE TO NO DEEP CONVECTION AND ONLY SPRINKLES POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY
AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING. SPREAD IN TIMING OF THE GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO NARROW DOWN TO ARRIVAL ON FRIDAY NIGHT. BREEZY
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. DECENT MIXING SHOULD ALLOW MAX GUSTS OF
25-35 MPH BEHIND THE FRONT, WHICH MAY POSE FUTURE ADVISORIES FOR
LOCAL LAKES.
GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED FOR HIGHS AND LOWS THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF NEAR-RECORD HIGHS, A DRAMATIC
20-25 F TEMPERATURE DROP IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT. WELL-BELOW
NORMAL HIGH TEMPS IN THE 60S F ARE ON TAP FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY,
BUMPING BACK UP INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S F BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. CHILLY
OVERNIGHT LOWS DUE TO LOWER DEW POINTS WILL ALLOW FOR LOWS TO FALL
INTO 40S F THIS WEEKEND. A FEW PROTECTED AREAS IN NORTHERN COUNTIES
CLOSER TO THE NC BORDER MAY FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S F, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO NOTE ANY POTENTIAL FOR FROST IN THESE AREAS
QUITE JUST YET.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR OUTSIDE OF POTENTIAL EARLY MORNING PATCHY FOG.
HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE VFR
CONDITIONS AT THE TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT TWENTY-FOUR HOURS.
HOWEVER, SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS DAYS, SOME BRIEF SUNRISE MORNING
FOG AT OUR FOG-PRONE SITES OF AGS/OGB IS POSSIBLE AND ALONG THE
RIVERS. A TEMPO GROUP HAS BEEN ADDED BETWEEN 9-12Z FOR POTENTIAL
LOW VISIBILITIES. MORE OF THE SAME CONTINUES ON THURSDAY AS
LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR/DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH WINDS
GENERALLY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST, BUT VARYING FROM SOUTH TO WEST.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH PRECIPITATION IS UNLIKELY, BREEZY
W/SW WINDS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY SHIFTING TO A NORTHERLY DIRECTION ON
SATURDAY.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...ND
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