479
FXUS62 KCAE 010017
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
817 PM EDT SAT MAY 31 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. A WEAK
COOL FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING SPAWNING ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTHERN AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS MONDAY AND WILL REMAIN NEARBY ALL WEEK WITH GRADUALLY
WARMING TEMPERATURES. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
RETURN BY THE END OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN AVERAGE
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL WEAKEN THIS
EVENING ALLOWING GUSTS TO DIMINISH AND POSSIBLY GO CALM
OVERNIGHT. A SHORTWAVE PASSING TO THE NORTH SPARKED
THUNDERSTORMS IN NC BUT AS THE OUTFLOW DRIFTS SOUTH THE
CONVECTION HAS RUN OUT OF STEAM. THEREFORE A DRY FORECAST IS
EXPECTED IN THE NEAR TERM. WE'LL SEE A FEW DEBRIS CLOUDS MOVE
SOUTH INTO THE AREA TONIGHT BUT ALSO A LAYER OF SMOKE ALOFT
WHICH COULD HINDER RADIATIONAL COOLING. EITHER WAY TEMPS TONIGHT
WILL BE BELOW NORMAL, WITH LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.
SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- LOW END CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM SUNDAY AS UPPER TROUGH
DEPARTS.
AS DEEP-TROUGHING ALOFT REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY , AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH THE REGION AND SEND A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTH IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS COULD
FACILITATE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE
FRONT. DUE TO WEAK LOW-LVL SHEAR IN PLACE, THESE THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD REMAIN UNDER SEVERE CRITERIA. MOST GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT
STORMS WILL KEEP ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20. 12Z HREF SUGGESTS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE A COUPLE HOURS AFTER SUNSET AS
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES INTO THE REGION AND DRY AIR BEGINS
TO SETTLE IN. WITH THIS SURFACE HIGH IN PLACE, EXPECT SUNNY AND DRY
CONDITIONS ON MONDAY. HIGHS FOR BOTH DAYS WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 80S.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- BENIGN WEATHER EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD AS DRY HIGH
PRESSURE SLOWLY SHIFTS SOUTHEASTWARD.
- MORE ACTIVE PATTERN LOOKS TO ARRIVE BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
AS STRONG MID-LVL RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE
WEEK, THIS SHOULD KEEP THE FORECAST FAIRLY QUITE. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL START MOVING OFFSHORE ON FRIDAY, WITH EASTERLY FLOW
BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY GRADUALLY. THUS, BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK, THE
PATTERN WILL START TO BECOME MORE ACTIVE AS MOISTURE USHERS INTO THE
REGION. EXPECT TEMPERATURES NEAR/SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF THE YEAR.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. GUSTS WILL SUBSIDE THIS
EVENING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS. WINDS SHOULD BE OUT OF
THE WEST FROM 5 TO 10 KTS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING BUT BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE LATE TONIGHT. THE DRY AIRMASS WILL PRECLUDE
FOG. A FEW CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS MAY MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH BUT OTHERWISE NO CLOUD COVER EXPECTED. THERE IS A
LAYER OF SMOKE ALOFT FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES BUT NO
RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY AT THE SURFACE ARE EXPECTED. WSW
WINDS PICK UP TO AROUND 10 KTS SUNDAY AFTER 16Z. THUNDERSTORMS
MAY ENTER THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTH ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON
BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN NORTH OF THE TAF SITES.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE INCREASES MID-WEEK LEADING TO
POTENTIAL EARLY MORNING RESTRICTIONS AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
FOR LATE WEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
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