522
FXUS62 KCAE 011151
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
651 AM EST SUN FEB 1 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) LIGHT SNOW COMING TO AN END THIS MORNING WITH GUSTY WINDS
AND BITTER COLD IN THE WAKE.
- 2) WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK.
- 3) RAIN CHANCES RAMP UP MID WEEK AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE #1: LIGHT SNOW COMING TO AN END THIS MORNING WITH
GUSTY WINDS AND BITTER COLD IN THE WAKE.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS QUICKLY LIFTING AWAY FROM THE CAROLINAS
EARLY THIS MORNING. MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE BACK SIDE HAS
ALLOWED LIGHT SNOW TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. HOWEVER AS THE
LOW PULLS FURTHER AWAY WE WILL SNOWFALL END FROM WEST TO EAST.
WINDS WILL GUST TO AROUND 20 KTS THROUGH THE MORNING WITH VERY
COLD AIR OVER THE AREA. AIR TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE
TEENS WITH WIND CHILL VALUES INTO THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS TO
AROUND 0. GUSTY WINDS WILL LEAD TO BLOWING SNOW AND COULD REDUCE
VISIBILITIES UNTIL WINDS WEAKEN LATER IN THE DAY.
KEY MESSAGE #2: WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY
THIS WEEK.
TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING FOR VERY
LONG, IF AT ALL, ON SUNDAY SO SNOW MELT WILL BE LIMITED,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS. ANY SNOW THAT DOES
MELT WILL CERTAINLY REFREEZE SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN THE COLD AIR MASS
ALONG WITH INFLUENCE FROM THE SNOW PACK WILL LEAD TO LOWS IN THE
MID TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS WITH COLDEST TEMPS TO THE NORTH. A
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED, BUT LIKE THE PREVIOUS
SHIFT, WILL HOLD OFF ISSUING AN ADDITIONAL PRODUCT TO AVOID ANY
CONFUSION WITH CURRENT EXTREME COLD HEADLINES. ALTHOUGH A
WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EARLY WEEK, TEMPERATURES
WILL STILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH TUESDAY. LOW
TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 20S.
KEY MESSAGE #3: RAIN CHANCES RAMP UP MID WEEK AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE SOUTHEAST MID-WEEK. DEEP
SW FLOW WILL PROMOTE WARM, MOIST ADVECTION WITH TEMPERATURES
RISING INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S FOR WEDNESDAY. AS THE ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW AND FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA WE
WILL SEE PWAT VALUES RISE TO AROUND 1 INCH. CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT AND SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT FROM THE UPPER TROUGH
FAVOR LIKELY POPS FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING TO THE EVENING.
ALTHOUGH COLDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT,
ANY MOISTURE WILL HAVE LIKELY EXITED THE AREA ALREADY.
AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD....
ALL TERMINALS HAVE RETURNED TO VFR EARLY THIS MORNING WITH ONLY
A FEW PASSING CLOUDS IN THE CENTRAL MIDLANDS. WINDS TODAY WILL
GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE BREEZY
AT TIMES AS THE COASTAL STORM PULLS AWAY FROM THE REGION. WINDS
DIMINISH THIS EVENING. DEPENDING ON AIRPORT SNOW REMOVAL
PROCEDURES, RUNWAYS COULD REMAIN HAZARDOUS THROUGH MIDDAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT
LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION COULD BRING RESTRICTIONS ONCE AGAIN. AT THIS
TIME IT APPEARS PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS RAIN.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR SCZ016-
018-020>022-025>031-035-037-038-041-115-116-135>137.
EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR SCZ016-
018-020>022-025>031-035-037-038-041-115-116-135>137.
GA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR GAZ040-
063>065-077.
EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR GAZ040-
063>065-077.
DISCUSSION...CJR
AVIATION...07
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