570
FXUS62 KCAE 171100
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
700 AM EDT SAT OCT 17 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. A STRONG COLD FRONT BRINGS COOLER WEATHER AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS CURRENTLY IN
EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: A STRONG COLD FRONT BRINGS COOLER WEATHER AND
BREEZY CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS
CURRENTLY IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.
A STRONG COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY PUSHING THROUGH THE PIEDMONT
EARLY THIS MORNING AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE MIDLANDS AND AREAS
EAST SHORTLY. AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH, WINDS WILL TURN
QUICKLY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST, AND INCREASE ONCE AGAIN TO BETWEEN
8-15 MPH. GUSTS WILL ALSO RETURN AND COULD REACH OVER 25-30 MPH
AT TIMES. WITH STRONG SYNOPTIC FORCING OVERSPREADING THE AREA
BEHIND THE FRONT, AND POSSIBLY ENOUGH MOISTURE MOVING THROUGH
THE REGION, SOME LIGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE SILL FORECAST TO
DEVELOP RELATIVELY QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. THEREAFTER, STRONG NORTHEASTERLY WINDS SETTLE IN FOR MOST
OF TODAY AND INTO SUNDAY AS THE CUTOFF LOW LINGERS OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST. STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S THIS AFTERNOON AND ONLY THE
LOW 60S ON SUNDAY.
ADDITIONALLY, BECAUSE OF THE FREQUENT WIND GUSTS OVER 30 MPH
EXPECTED BOTH DAYS, A LONGER DURATION LAKE WIND ADVISORY HAS
BEEN ISSUED THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. BOATERS ON AREA LAKES SHOULD
BE CAUTIOUS, ESPECIALLY IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS WARM
LAKE WATERS WILL ALLOW STRONGER WIND GUSTS TO PERSIST OVER THE
LAKES AT NIGHT. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, A DRAMATICALLY COOLER
AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL SETTLE INTO THE AREA ALL WEEKEND,
ALLOWING OVERNIGHT TEMPS TO DROP SHARPLY. IT CURRENTLY LOOKS
LIKE THE COLDEST NIGHT SHOULD BE LATER TONIGHT, WITH MUCH OF THE
AREA IN THE 40S AND A FEW SHELTERED LOCATIONS NEAR THE NORTH
CAROLINA BORDER DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 30S. NEXT WEEK LOOKS
BEAUTIFUL WITH LARGE DAILY DIURNAL SPREADS OWING TO A VERY DRY
AIRMASS IN PLACE. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AND LOWS IN THE
40S ARE LIKELY THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
GUSTY WINDS TODAY WITH SOME LIGHT SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING.
A STRONG COLD FRONT IS PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING ALONG WITH WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN. THIS WILL SHIFT WINDS
FROM THE SW TO THE NW WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS THROUGH 14Z OR SO.
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS FROM RAINFALL ARE BOTH POSSIBLE AS THE
FRONT PASSES AND MVFR CEILINGS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE
FRONT. MVFR CEILINGS COULD LINGER THROUGH LATE MORNING HOURS
BUT SHOULD IMPROVE BACK TO VFR BY 18Z AT ALL TERMINALS, WITH
MAYBE THE EXCEPTION OF OGB. WIND GUSTS WILL BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS
FOR MOST OF THE DAY WITH A SHIFT TO A MORE NORTHERLY COMPONENT
BY LATE AFTERNOON. GUSTS SHOULD SUBSIDE NEAR THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD BUT WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE
EVENING.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE SUNDAY. DRY WEATHER AND WEAKER WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR SCZ016-018-
020>022-025>031-035-037-038-041-115-116-135>137.
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR GAZ040-063>065-
077.
DISCUSSION...ND
AVIATION...CJR
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