344
FXUS62 KCAE 221715
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1215 PM EST MON DEC 22 2025
SYNOPSIS
TEMPERATURES ARE SLIGHTLY COOLER TODAY BEFORE UPPER RIDGING
BRINGS A STEADY WARMING TREND FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY,
POSSIBLY INTO THE WEEKEND. DRY CONDITIONS LIKELY CONTINUING
INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
CLOUD COVER INCREASES TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
THE CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS SLOWLY MOVING EASTWARD
TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SHIFT
OFFSHORE THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT. ALOFT, BROAD UPPER
RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BEFORE
STARTING TO SHIFT TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST INTO TUESDAY. IN TERMS OF
SENSIBLE WEATHER, A COOLER AND VERY DRY AIRMASS REMAINS IN
PLACE AS SURFACE DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE LOWER TEENS WITH RH
VALUES BETWEEN 16-25% EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. MOS GUIDANCE HAS
CONTINUED TO BE A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN THE NBM FOR
AFTERNOON HIGHS, THUS MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S WITH LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS. HEADING INTO
TONIGHT, LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF SHORE AND PWAT'S RAISE
TO NEAR 1". IN GENERAL, THIS SHOULD BRING INCREASED CLOUD COVER
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING THAT WILL LIMIT
OVERNIGHT LOWS TOWARD THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. FAIRLY ROBUST
ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE 290-300K LAYER IS SHOWN IN DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SHOW A FAIRLY SATURATED
COLUMN UP TO AROUND 8K FEET SO I WOULD NOT BE COMPLETELY
SURPRISED IF A COUPLE PERIODS OF DRIZZLE OCCUR EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING WITH THE LOW CLOUD COVER.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH A WARMING TREND STARTING IN
EARNEST ON TUESDAY.
- DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH A WARMING TREND STARTING IN
EARNEST ON TUESDAY.
THE AREA REMAINS ON THE EAST SIDE OF AN AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE DURING
THE SHORT TERM. A WEAK SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO PASS TO OUR NORTH AND
BRING SOME CLOUDINESS TO THE AREA ON TUESDAY, WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO
THE SOUTHWEST HELPING TO KICK OFF A QUICK WARMING TREND. THERE MAY
BE SOME ELEVATED AFTERNOON BREEZES WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20-25 MPH.
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY SHOULD BE 5-8 DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY. AN
ADDITIONAL 5-8 DEGREES OF WARMING IS THEN ON TAP FOR WEDNESDAY AS A
BROADER AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- A FRONTAL PASSAGE IS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE PERIOD.
UPPER RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE INTO THIS WEEKEND WITH PERHAPS SOME
DAMPENING TO MORE ZONAL FLOW BY SUNDAY. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
AT WELL ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, WITH NBM
PROBABILITIES >90% FOR MOST OF THE AREA SEEING CHRISTMAS DAY HIGH
TEMPERATURES ABOVE 70 DEGREES F. A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING ARE
POSSIBLE FRIDAY AS A WEAK FRONT PASSES NORTH AND EAST OF THE STATE,
BUT THERE IS A HIGH PROBABILITY FOR VALUES TO REBOUND THIS WEEKEND
AS THE RIDGE AXIS PASSES OVERHEAD AND HEIGHTS INCREASE AGAIN. A MORE
POTENT FRONT IS THEN ANTICIPATED SUNDAY INTO NEXT MONDAY WITH SOME
BREEZY CONDITIONS AND THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE
AREA.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY CONTINUE MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH
CHANCE FOR MVFR CEILINGS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE SEEN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS HAVE SETTLED TO AROUND 4-7 KTS. THESE
CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING AND THE EARLY OVERNIGHT
PERIOD AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE BEFORE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE RAMPS UP AFTER 06-09Z TUESDAY. AS THIS OCCURS, MOST MODEL
GUIDANCE SHOWS A BKN TO OVC DECK AROUND 4,500 TO 5,000 FT
MOVING INTO THE TERMINALS BUT AFTER 10-13Z, THERE CONTINUES TO
BE A HINT AT POSSIBLE MVFR CEILINGS AROUND 2,500 FT. THE LATEST
HREF HAS PROBABILITIES FOR CEILINGS LESS THAN 3,000 FT BETWEEN
50-70% AFTER 12Z MAINLY NEAR THE AUGUSTA AND COLUMBIA TERMINALS
WHILE PROBABILITIES ARE LESS TOWARD OGB. DUE TO FAIRLY SATURATED
LOW-LEVELS IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND INCREASED PROBABILITIES IN
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE, HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ADDED A BKN MVFR DECK
THAT SHOULD LAST UNTIL THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD BEFORE LIKELY
SCATTERING OUT INTO THE NEXT PERIOD. WINDS TUESDAY MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON TURN OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO
LINGER IN THE REGION INTO THE MID TO LATE WEEK WHERE MORNING FOG
OR STRATUS COULD BE POSSIBLE WITH ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
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