913
FXUS62 KCAE 061735
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
135 PM EDT SUN SEP 6 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY BRINGING THE RISK OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, SMALL HAIL, AND
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 18Z
TAF ISSUANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. DAMAGING WINDS, LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE TODAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1. DAMAGING WINDS, LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE
TODAY.
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
TRAVERSE THE SOUTHEAST TODAY AS SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THE
BROADER TROUGH. CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WILL
WORK TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA MID DAY AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THE
MOST PROMINENT SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE AREA LATER
IN THE DAY ENHANCING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND SUPPORTING
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE EVENING, ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN
FORECAST AREA WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATER.
A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY IS SLOWLY MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA
FROM THE NORTH. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL TRIGGER
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE
THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH LARGE HAIL ALSO POSSIBLE. MLCAPE VALUES
ARE PROGGED FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON WITH FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOWING AN INVERTED-V SIGNATURE INDICATIVE OF A
DOWNBURST WIND THREAT. WITH PWAT VALUES HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS
DAY DCAPE VALUES ARE NOT QUITE AS HIGH AS YESTERDAY, PEAKING
NEAR 1000 J/KG, BUT STILL SUPPORTIVE OF DAMAGING DOWNBURST
WINDS. WITH PWAT VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA THIS WOULD
POINT TO AN INCREASED RISK OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING. THE MAIN AREA OF CONCERN WILL BE URBAN AREAS AND
THE FEW LOCALIZED SPOTS WHICH RECEIVED HEAVY RAINFALL THE
PREVIOUS DAY.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST, GLOBAL ENSEMBLES FAVOR BROAD
RIDGING DEVELOPING OVER MUCH OF THE CONUS NEXT WEEK. WITH
EASTERLY, ONSHORE FLOW FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK AND DEEPER
SW FLOW FOR THE LATTER PART, WE WILL LIKELY SEE PWAT VALUES NEAR
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. THIS PATTERN SUPPORTS ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOST DAYS NEXT WEEK WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL AFTER MONDAY.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ANOTHER ROUND OF DIURNAL CONVECTION LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING
EXPECTED THEN RESTRICTIONS ASSOCIATED WITH STRATUS AND FOG LATE
TONIGHT.
SCATTERED CIRRUS WITH A FEW AREAS OF 4 KFT CUMULUS HAVE
DEVELOPED OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON, WITH GENERALLY LIGHT
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS OF 5-6 KTS. SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY, SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE AFTERNOON AND
INTO THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT SINKS SOUTHWARD. A FEW STORMS
COULD BRING GUSTY WINDS AND TEMPORARY RESTRICTIONS OVER
TERMINALS. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING AND COVERAGE, PROB30
GROUPS HAVE BEEN MAINTAINED AT ALL SITES FROM 21-03Z. CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW REGARDING HOW LONG CONVECTION WILL PERSIST INTO THE
NIGHT WITH SOME SHORT-RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTION COVERAGE COULD
CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS MONDAY.
LINGERING DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM CONVECTION SHOULD GRADUALLY CLEAR
OUT AS LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT.
MVFR/IFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AT THE TERMINALS BETWEEN 06-15Z
MONDAY, WITH THE STRONGEST CONFIDENCE TO OUR SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN TERMINALS. CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE BY MIDDAY
AS CEILINGS LIFT WITH SCT CUMULUS BASES AROUND 3-5 KFT. WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO 6-9 KT GENERALLY FROM THE NE.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...DIURNAL STORM CHANCES CONTINUE INTO
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CJR
AVIATION...ND
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