682
FXUS62 KCAE 131719
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
119 PM EDT SUN SEP 13 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 18Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY, WITH A BACKDOOR
FRONT USHERING IN DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY, WITH
A BACKDOOR FRONT USHERING IN DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE FORECAST THINKING, WITH SUNDAY BEING A
TRANSITION DAY ALOFT AS BROAD MID-LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS EAST AND
RIDGING WILL STEADILY BUILD INTO MONDAY. THE PATTERN WILL THEN
STEADILY AMPLIFY AS PERSISTENT TROUGHING ACROSS THE WESTERN
CONUS WILL YIELD STRONG DOWNSTREAM HEIGHT RISES ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS, RESULTING IN ONE OF THE STRONGER 500 HPA
RIDGES ON RECORD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR BASED ON THE NAEFS CLIMO.
WHILE THIS WOULD TYPICALLY SUGGEST POTENTIALLY RECORD HIGH
TEMPS, A STOUT SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO ROUND THE RIDGE INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN CONUS MONDAY, WITH ASSOCIATED STRONG CONVERGENCE.
THIS CONVERGENCE IS FORECAST TO USHER IN A STRONG SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM INTO THE NORTHEAST, DRIVING RIDGING LEE OF THE
APPALACHIANS THROUGH MID-WEEK. AS THIS RIDGING DIGS SOUTHWARD IT
WILL MANIFEST AS BACKDOOR SURFACE FRONT WILL SOME DENSER,
COOLER & DRIER AIR PUSHING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST AND BRINGING
NEAR NORMAL HIGHS & BELOW NORMAL DEWPOINTS AND PWS BY TUESDAY.
AHEAD OF THIS BACKDOOR FRONT HOWEVER, MONDAY WILL BE QUITE WARM,
WITH HIGHS FORECAST IN THE MID 90S. BUT TUESDAY-THURSDAY SHOULD
FEATURE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S, DEWPOINTS IN THE
LOW 60S DURING THE AFTERNOONS OR UPPER 50'S, AND OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE MID 60S. SOUTHERLY COMPONENT FLOW AND BROAD SCALE
MOISTURE RETURNS BY LATE WEEK WITH INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES
ALONG WITH IT.
AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
FEW TO SCT CUMULUS ARE DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON WITH WESTERLY
WINDS AROUND 5-8 KTS. VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY WHERE A SPOTTY SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT
NEAR AGS/DNL, BUT IMPACTS ARE UNLIKELY. OVERNIGHT, A FEW PASSING
CIRRUS COULD BE SEEN AS LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM WINDS
DEVELOP. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO PUSH IN, BRINGING
LOWER CHANCES FOR MORNING RESTRICTIONS, AS SEEN IN THE LATEST
HREF, HRRR, AND LAMP GUIDANCE. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW PATCHES OF
FOG OR STRATUS EARLY MONDAY MORNING MAINLY IN PORTIONS OF THE
CSRA AND SOUTHEASTERN MIDLANDS, BUT CONFIDENCE IN IMPACTS TO THE
TAF SITES IS FAIRLY LOW. WINDS MONDAY MORNING SHIFT A BIT MORE
NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY AS VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY CONTINUE
THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RAIN UNLIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK
BUT THERE WILL STILL BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR EARLY MORNING
FOG/STRATUS PERSISTS AT LEAST THROUGH TUESDAY.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION...DH
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page