522
FXUS62 KCAE 171046
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
646 AM EDT WED JUN 17 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 12Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. ACTIVE WEATHER INCREASINGLY LIKELY TO END THE WORK WEEK
DUE TO SYSTEM FROM THE GULF MOVING ACROSS THE REGION, WITH
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING
WINDS.
- 2. SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS MORNING MOVE OUT AND DRY CONDITIONS
RETURN INTO THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE ACTIVE WEATHER FROM KEY
MESSAGE 1.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: ACTIVE WEATHER INCREASINGLY LIKELY TO END THE
WORK WEEK DUE TO SYSTEM FROM THE GULF MOVING ACROSS THE REGION,
WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING
WINDS.
POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE 1 (PTC 1) HAS MOVED OFF THE TX COAST
AND INTO THE NORTHWEST GULF. WHILE OVER THE WARM WATERS, IT IS
FORECAST TO INTENSIFY BRIEFLY BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL IN THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND WEAKENING. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SHOW THAT THE UPPER WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM MOVES ALONG
A STALLED BOUNDARY OVER THE GULF COAST STATES AND TOWARD THE
SOUTHEAST. ALTHOUGH THERE IS BETTER AGREEMENT IN TIMING, THERE
IS STILL SOME DISCREPANCY BETWEEN MODEL SOLUTIONS, WITH THE
ECMWF STILL BEING THE STRONGEST WITH THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW.
REGARDLESS OF HOW THE UPPER WAVE AND SURFACE LOW EVOLVE,
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT WE'LL SEE ACTIVE WEATHER THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING INTO FRIDAY.
IN ADDITION TO THE UPPER WAVE ALONG THE GULF COAST, A COLD
FRONT IS FORECAST TO START MOVING SOUTHWARD FROM THE MIDWEST
LATE IN THE WEEK. AS A RESULT, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED
TO TIGHTEN, CAUSING BREEZY TO GUSTY WINDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
THERE IS A MODERATE CHANCE (50-60%) OF WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING 25
MPH. INCREASED MOISTURE IS ALSO EXPECTED AS THE UPPER WAVE PULLS
GULF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION, WITH PWATS OVER 2" LIKELY
EVERYWHERE IN THE FORECAST AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO
LOOK MOIST ADIABATIC THURSDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
LATEST QPF AMOUNTS HAVE INCREASED AS WELL, SO THE COMBINATION OF
THESE FACTORS INDICATE THE THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS
INCREASING. DESPITE THE INCREASED THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN,
CONFIDENCE ISN'T HIGH ENOUGH THAT IT WILL BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH
TO WARRANT A FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME. THE HEAVIEST RAIN FROM
THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO REMAIN TO OUR SOUTHWEST. LASTLY,
AHEAD OF THE HEAVY RAIN, THERE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT CAPE (~1000
J/KG OR GREATER) AND 0-6 KM SHEAR (~20-25 KTS) TO SUPPORT AN
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORM OR TWO WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING
THE MAIN THREAT.
KEY MESSAGE 2: SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS MORNING MOVE OUT AND DRY
CONDITIONS RETURN INTO THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE ACTIVE WEATHER FROM
KEY MESSAGE 1.
A WEAK SHORTWAVE TRANSLATING ACROSS THE SOUTH IS BRINGING
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING.
EXPECT SHOWER CHANCES TO CONTINUE AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE, WHICH
IS WEAKER THAN FORECAST, LEADING TO LESS ACTIVITY THAN
ANTICIPATED PREVIOUSLY. ONCE THIS SHORTWAVE PASSES, DRY
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF TODAY AND INTO
THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM DISCUSSED IN KEY MESSAGE 1.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REBOUND TO NEAR AVERAGE FOR TODAY
AND TOMORROW AS WELL.
AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS TO START THE FORECAST WITH IMPROVEMENT
EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON.
RADAR STILL SHOWING SOME LINGERING SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION KEEPING THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME VSBYS RESTRICTIONS IN
RAIN THROUGH 15Z OR SO. WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CIGS CURRENTLY IN
PLACE WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. RESTRICTIONS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH 16Z OR SO THEN GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT
BACK TO VFR BY 18Z. WINDS EXPECTED TO BE SOUTHWESTERLY 5 TO 10
KNOTS THEN PICK UP TO AROUND 10 KNOTS AFTER 15Z WITH SOME
AFTERNOON GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...DIURNALLY FAVORED CONVECTION
POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON, FAVORING THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS AND
CSRA. BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THU/FRI WITH INCREASED CHANCES
OF RAIN AS A GULF COAST SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...29
AVIATION...23
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