288
FXUS62 KCAE 251025
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
625 AM EDT SAT JUL 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE AREA THIS
MORNING.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE TODAY, MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN
FORECAST AREA.
- 2. NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH SUNDAY THEN A
MORE SUMMER LIKE PATTERN RETURNS NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
- 1. RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE TODAY, MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN
FORECAST AREA.
SHOWERS CONTINUE TODAY AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY SHIFTS INTO THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING
THEN EXITS OFFSHORE LATER TODAY. THE AXIS OF THE HEAVIER
RAINFALL TODAY IS EXPECTED TOWARDS THE COASTAL PLAIN THIS
AFTERNOON WHERE SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND DAYTIME HEATING COINCIDE.
THE LATEST WPC ERO LINES UP WITH THIS AND HAS A SLIGHT RISK
(2/4) FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND POINTS
EAST WITH A MARGINAL (1/4) RISK ELSEWHERE. KEPT CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA WHERE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS MOST
LIKELY. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD BE EVEN LOWER ON SUNDAY WITH MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON MONDAY.
- 2. NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH SUNDAY THEN A
MORE SUMMER LIKE PATTERN RETURNS NEXT WEEK.
THE COMBINATION OF THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH EXTENSIVE
CLOUDS AND INTERMITTENT RAINFALL WILL KEEP MAX TEMPERATURES NEAR
TO BELOW NORMAL THROUGH SUNDAY. THE COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL EXPAND AND STRENGTHEN INTO THE PLAINS
STATES BY SUNDAY RESULTING IN DOWNSTREAM UPPER TROUGHING ALONG
THE EAST COAST. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN SOME DRIER AIR WORKING
INTO THE REGION SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, AIDED BY
DOWNSLOPING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM
BACK TO NEAR AND ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
HIGHS BACK IN THE MID TO POSSIBLY UPPER 90S BY MID WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
MVFR/IFR CEILING RESTRICTIONS LIKELY THIS MORNING, LIFR POSSIBLE.
A SURFACE BOUNDARY HUNG UP OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND AMPLE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE SUPPORTS CEILING RESTRICTIONS THROUGH THE MORNING
AND POSSIBLY INTO THE AFTERNOON. UPSTREAM SITES SHOW MVFR OR
IFR CEILINGS WHICH SHOULD MOVE OVER THE TAF SITES BETWEEN 12Z
AND 15Z. PERIODS OF LIFR WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE BUT ARE LESS
LIKELY. CEILINGS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR AROUND 15Z. RESTRICTIONS
COULD LINGER THROUGH 18Z BEFORE IMPROVING.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
AROUND 12Z. THIS HAS PROMOTED CONVECTION ALONG THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER BY THE
TIME COVERAGE INCREASES IN THE AFTERNOON, THE BULK OF THE
ACTIVITY MAY BE TO THE EAST OF THE TAF SITES. THEREFORE NO
CONVECTION IS MENTIONED IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AND MAINLY OUT OF THE W OR NW BUT
WILL BE VARIABLE MOST OF THE DAY AS THE BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED
OVER THE AREA.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...EARLY MORNING RESTRICTIONS REMAIN
ELEVATED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. DRIER WEATHER
EXPECTED EARLY THIS COMING WEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...7
AVIATION...CJR
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