203
FXUS62 KCAE 261727
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
127 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MINOR EDITS MADE TO KEY MESSAGES. THE MAIN CONCERN IS THE
INCREASED FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL ON SATURDAY. IF TRENDS
CONTINUE, FIRE WEATHER PRODUCTS MAY BE NEEDED AS EARLY AS THE
NEXT FORECAST PACKAGE. UPDATED AVIATION FOR THE 18Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY BEFORE A MAINLY
DRY COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH, BRINGING TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO
NORMAL THIS WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES THEN WARM AGAIN INTO NEXT
WEEK.
- 2. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT, ESPECIALLY SATURDAY, WITH VERY DRY AIR AND BREEZY
WINDS MOVING IN.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY BEFORE A
MAINLY DRY COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH, BRINGING TEMPERATURES CLOSER
TO NORMAL THIS WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES THEN WARM AGAIN INTO NEXT WEEK.
500MB HEIGHT RISES RAMP UP TODAY AND FRIDAY ON THE ORDER OF 2-4
DM/12HR AS THE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
EXPANDS EASTWARD. THIS ALONG WITH WARMING 850 MB TEMPERATURES
SHOULD YIELD HIGHS THAT BREAK INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S
THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE WARMING TO NEAR RECORD VALUES ON FRIDAY.
THE EC EFI CONTINUES TO SHOW VALUES ABOVE 0.90 ACROSS THE AREA
FOR TEMPERATURES FRIDAY, DISPLAYING THE ANOMALOUS WARMTH THAT
MOVES IN AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES REACH THE NAEFS 99TH PERCENTILE.
THE MOST RECENT NBM RUN AND MOS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE
HIGH TEMPERATURES THAT REACH/EXCEED RECORD VALUES WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES. THE CURRENT
FORECAST OF 89F AT CAE AND AGS WOULD BREAK THE RECORD OF 88F AT
BOTH SITES.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE STRONG COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE IN LATE FRIDAY EVENING INTO EARLY SATURDAY. NOT MUCH HAS
CHANGED WITH THIS FRONT AS EC ENSEMBLE AND GEFS MEAN SOLUTIONS
SHOW PWAT'S REACHING 150-180% OF NORMAL AHEAD OF THIS. HAVING
SAID THAT, POPS HAVE INCREASED SLIGHTLY WITH THIS UPDATE WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS NORTH AND EAST OF THE I-26 CORRIDOR AND
CHANCE POPS IN CHESTERFIELD AND LANCASTER COUNTIES. BEHIND THIS
FRONT, SOLID ENSEMBLE AGREEMENT REMAINS THAT ROBUST HIGH
PRESSURE ORIGINATING FROM CANADA MOVES IN, BRINGING MUCH COOLER
AND DRIER AIR INTO THE FA. THIS SURFACE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO BE
NEAR THE NAEFS CLIMATOLOGICAL MAX AND TEMPERATURES OVER THE
WEEKEND ARE EXPECTED TO BE JUST BELOW NORMAL TO NEAR NORMAL.
THIS SURFACE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT OFFSHORE EARLY IN THE
WEEK WITH THE REGION THEN BECOMING CENTERED UNDER A UPPER RIDGE.
THIS FEATURE SHOULD BRING A FAMILIAR PATTERN WITH CONTINUED DRY
CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES THAT WARM THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
KEY MESSAGE 2: FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, ESPECIALLY SATURDAY, WITH VERY DRY AIR
AND BREEZY WINDS MOVING IN.
MINIMAL CHANGE IS SEEN IN THE OUTLOOK BEHIND THE STRONG COLD
FRONT AS VERY DRY AIR IS EXPECTED TO SURGE INTO THE REGION
STARTING FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE IS SOLID MODEL CONSENSUS THAT
DEWPOINTS ORIGINALLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL CRASH INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON
WITH A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AS THE SURFACE HIGH
DISCUSSED IN KEY MESSAGE #1 MOVES CLOSER. THE STRONGEST
NORTHEASTERLY GUSTS APPEAR TO MOVE IN OVERNIGHT FRIDAY,
CONTINUING INTO EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
CONTINUE TO INDICATE GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
AFOREMENTIONED WINDOW WHEN AN ISOLATED GUST PUSHING 35 MPH
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. AS DEW POINTS QUICKLY FALL, RH VALUES
SATURDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD BOTTOM OUT NEAR 20%, POSSIBLY A BIT
LOWER IN SOME SPOTS. DUE TO THIS, CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO
INCREASE IN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS SATURDAY. THE MAIN
UNCERTAINTY IS HOW LONG THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL LINGER AS THERE
MAY NOT BE A "PERFECT" OVERLAP OF THE LOWEST RH VALUES AND
STRONGEST WINDS, BUT EITHER WAY HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS CONDUCIVE
FOR FIRE SPREAD WILL BE IN PLACE. SPC HAS MAINTAINED AN AREA
HIGHLIGHTING THE FA FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON
THEIR LATEST FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SATURDAY. IF TRENDS
CONTINUE, FIRE WEATHER PRODUCTS MAY BE NEEDED AS SOON AS THE
NEXT FORECAST PACKAGE.
MODEST IMPROVEMENT CONTINUES TO BE FAVORED ON SUNDAY, WHEN
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY,
BRINGING IN SLIGHTLY HIGHER MOISTURE TO THE AREA. DESPITE
SLIGHTLY GREATER MOISTURE CONTENT AND MUCH WEAKER WINDS, MINIMUM
RH VALUES COULD STILL NEAR CRITICAL LEVELS MAINLY IN THE
NORTHERN FA, SO CAUTION WILL STILL NEED TO BE TAKEN FOR ANY
ACTIVITY THAT COULD SPARK A FIRE.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY....
THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS REMAINS OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON BUT WINDS HAVE SHIFTED SOUTHWESTERLY AND INCREASED AS
IT CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION. EXPECT PERIODIC
GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AT CAE/CUB/OGB WITH
LIGHTER WINDS AT THE AUGUSTA AREA TERMINALS (AGS/DNL). SCT
CUMULUS WITH CEILINGS BETWEEN 3500 AND 4500 FEET WILL CONTINUE
MOVING THROUGH, DISSIPATING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
CANNOT RULE OUT BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS DUE TO BKN CUMULUS DECKS AT
OR UNDER 3000 FEET. THIS POTENTIAL IS OMITTED FROM THE TAFS AT
THIS TIME DUE TO LOWER CONFIDENCE. WINDS WILL ALSO DIMINISH
TONIGHT BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO GO COMPLETELY CALM. EXPECT GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
INTO THE WEEKEND, EVEN AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL USHER IN ANOTHER REINFORCING COOL AND DRY AIR
MASS FOR THE WEEKEND. SOME GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY
BEHIND THE FRONT.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...7
AVIATION...7
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