122
FXUS62 KCAE 010539
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
139 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MINIMAL CHANGES TO THE KEY MESSAGES. AVIATION DISCUSSION
UPDATED FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. GENERALLY DRY WEATHER AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES OVER 100F THIS WEEK.
- 2. ACTIVE WEATHER AND DECREASING TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE THIS
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1. GENERALLY DRY WEATHER AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES OVER 100F THIS
WEEK.
A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EASTWARD
THROUGH THE WEEK BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST BY
THURSDAY. BOTH DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE REMAIN IN
GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS EVOLUTION. NAEFS GUIDANCE INDICATES
500-MB HEIGHTS WILL APPROACH THE CLIMATOLOGICAL MAX TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY BEFORE DECREASING SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK. WITH THE RIDGE OVERHEAD, GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST ALL WEEK. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE HEAT,
WITH TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY INCREASING EACH DAY AND REACHING
THE UPPER 90S. INCREASING HUMIDITY WILL RESULT IN HEAT INDEX
VALUES EXCEEDING 100F DURING THE AFTERNOON, POTENTIALLY
BEGINNING TODAY AND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR CONDITIONS TO APPROACH HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA LATE
IN THE WEEK, THOUGH THIS WILL DEPEND LARGELY ON HOW WELL THE
ATMOSPHERE MIXES EACH DAY. REGARDLESS, HEAT-REALTED ILLNESSES
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE.
KEY MESSAGE 2. ACTIVE WEATHER AND DECREASING TEMPERATURES
POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND.
GLOBAL ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTS THE RIDGE WILL
RETROGRADE WESTWARD, ALLOWING A TROUGH TO DIG SOUTHWARD ALONG
THE EAST COAST. AS THIS OCCURS, SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. COOLER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO
ANTICIPATED BEHIND THE FRONT AS WELL AS DRIER AIR.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY EXPECTED EXCEPT POSSIBLE EARLY MORNING
FOG/STRATUS.
CALM CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE
SOME SUNRISE STRATUS-FOG IS POSSIBLE. PRIMARY CONFIDENCE IS AGS
AND OGB AS TYPICAL, BUT AIK AND CAE COULD POSSIBLY SEE BRIEF
RESTRICTIONS AS WELL BETWEEN 10-13Z. LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
MAINLY AT OGB AND AGS. ANY RESIDUAL FOG-STRATUS WILL CLEAR OUT
AFTER 14Z FOR ALL SITES. INTO THE AFTERNOON, TYPICAL SUMMER CU
FIELD ONCE AGAIN TOMORROW WITH LITTLE CHANCE FOR STORMS AND
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...EARLY MORNING RESTRICTIONS STILL
POSSIBLE DESPITE A DRIER OUTLOOK FOR THE WEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ND
AVIATION...42
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