040
FXUS62 KCAE 100031
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
831 PM EDT TUE JUN 9 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 00Z TAF.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. A TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN EXPECTED THIS WEEK WITH INCREASING
MOISTURE.
- 2. WARMING TEMPERATURES DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK TIME FRAME
MAY LEAD TO A PERIOD OF DANGEROUSLY HOT TEMPERATURES.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: A TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN EXPECTED THIS WEEK WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE.
ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AS OUTFLOW
AND SEABREEZE INTERACTIONS OCCURS. IN GENERAL, THOUGH, THINGS
SHOULD REMAIN QUIET FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. WHILE HIGH
PRESSURE WORKS TO LIMIT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE, ELEVATED
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE, GENERALLY 110-130% OF NORMAL PWAT VALUES
AND STRONG HEATING ARE STILL EXPECTED TO LEAD TO ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ELSEWHERE AS A FEW
VERY WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH. THE SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN
PERSISTS INTO THIS WEEKEND AS PWAT VALUES APPROACH 2" AND UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT BECOMES STRONGER, LEADING TO INCREASING CONFIDENCE
IN ORGANIZED CONVECTION FOR THE WEEKEND.
KEY MESSAGE 2: WARMING TEMPERATURES DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK
TIME FRAME MAY LEAD TO A PERIOD OF DANGEROUSLY HOT
TEMPERATURES.
ANOMALOUSLY STRONG RIDGING OVER THE AREA LATE THIS WEEK IS EXPECTED
TO LEAD TO 850 MB TEMPERATURES NEAR 20C, OR ABOUT 4-6C ABOVE
NORMAL THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY DURING PEAK DAYTIME HEATING. AT
THE SURFACE, THIS SHOULD BRING WELL ABOVE TEMPERATURES TO THE
AREA REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 90S, OR 10-15F ABOVE NORMAL. A
FEW LOCATIONS COULD SEE THE 100F MARK ON FRIDAY. AT THE SAME
TIME, SURFACE DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE GENERALLY IN THE 65-70F
RANGE IN THE AFTERNOONS. THE COMBINATION OF HEAT AND ABOVE
NORMAL MOISTURE COULD RESULT IN HEAT INDEX VALUES REACHING THE
INTO THE 100S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY FOR MANY LOCATIONS. ALTHOUGH
HEAT INDEX VALUES MAY NOT REACH CRITERIA FOR A HEAT ADVISORY
(108F), WE CONTINUE TO EVALUATE THE NEED FOR AN ADVISORY GIVEN
THAT THIS IS THE FIRST MAJOR HEAT THE YEAR.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH BRIEF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AT
OGB/AGS.
VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE AT ALL TERMINALS THIS EVENING AS
ISOLATED CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED ACROSS THE AREA WITH MOSTLY
HIGH CLOUDS PASSING OVER THE TERMINALS AND WINDS BECOMING LIGHT
AND VARIABLE. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO LINGER, ALTHOUGH
PROBABILITY OF RESTRICTIONS IS LOWER TONIGHT. ONCE AGAIN, HAVE
INCLUDED BRIEF RESTRICTIONS AT AGS AND MENTIONED SCT MVFR CLOUDS
AT OGB BUT WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS REMAIN UNLIKELY. CUMULUS
CLOUDS LIKELY ONCE AGAIN TOMORROW WITH WINDS GENERALLY OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST BETWEEN 5 TO 10 KNOTS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED DIURNAL
SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON THIS WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...29/PL
AVIATION...96
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