886
FXUS62 KCAE 251721
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
121 PM EDT FRI SEP 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
DEWPOINTS WERE LOWERED WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. OTHERWISE,
THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK. AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 18Z
TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. COOLER BUT DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY RETURN TO NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES
NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: COOLER BUT DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY RETURN TO NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL
VALUES NEXT WEEK.
SATELLITE IMAGERY AT MIDDAY SHOWS CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE FA AS
DRY AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH. DEWPOINTS WERE
LOWERED BASED ON RECENTLY OBSERVED TRENDS. THE TASTE OF AUTUMN
BEGINS TODAY AS HIGHS STRUGGLE TO REACH THE 70S DESPITE THE
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. CLEAR SKIES AND CONTINUED CAA SHOULD ALSO
RESULT IN ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT WITH FORECAST LOWS IN THE UPPER
40S TO LOWER 50S. NORMALLY COLD LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY FALL WELL
INTO THE 40S BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY.
OVER THE WEEKEND THE UPPER TROUGH IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER
FULLY CUTS OFF, WITH A POTENT NOR'EASTER MEANDERING SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND, AND A BLOCKING PATTERN SETTING UP WITH A RIDGE OVER
THE CENTRAL CONUS. IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER, DRY CONDITIONS
LIKELY PERSIST WITH PWAT'S WELL UNDER 1". TEMPERATURES
GRADUALLY WARM TOWARD THE LOWER TO MID 80S ON SUNDAY AFTER
TOPPING OUT AROUND 80 DEGREES ON SATURDAY. OVERALL, A MILD AND
PLEASANT WEEKEND APPEARS TO BE IN STORE.
NEXT WEEK, THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN GETS MORE MURKY AS THE
REMNANTS/MOISTURE OF WHAT IS CURRENTLY HURRICANE POLO LIKELY
GETS PICKED UP IN THE PREVAILING FLOW AND MAY INTERACT WITH A
SHARP SHORTWAVE DIGGING INTO SOUTHERN CA/THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
DURING THE EARLY TO MID WEEK. WHILE THE EXACT EVOLUTION OF THE
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS UNCERTAIN, ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE AND GLOBAL
MODELS INDICATE AT LEAST A PERIOD OF RIDGING IS LIKELY AHEAD OF
THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH, BRINGING BACK TEMPERATURES NEAR TO
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE VALID TAF
PERIOD.
SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON IS SHOWING CLEAR OR MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA. DRIER AIR WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY, ENSURING SKC
AT ALL TERMINALS. SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE N-NE WITH A
FEW GUSTS OF 15-20 KTS AT TIMES TODAY. ADDED A TEMPO GROUP TO
DNL FOR WIND GUSTS DUE TO OBSERVED TRENDS. WINDS THEN DECOUPLE
THIS EVENING, BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM FOR THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. WINDS WILL PICK UP BETWEEN 4-8 KTS BY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON WITH A N-NW DIRECTION.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...7
AVIATION...NS
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