855
FXUS62 KCAE 091712
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
112 PM EDT TUE JUN 9 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL INCREASED IN THE UPPER CSRA THIS
AFTERNOON. AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 18Z TAF.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. A TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN EXPECTED THIS WEEK WITH INCREASING
MOISTURE.
- 2. WARMING TEMPERATURES DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK TIME FRAME
MAY LEAD TO A PERIOD OF DANGEROUSLY HOT TEMPERATURES.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: A TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN EXPECTED THIS WEEK WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM HAS DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON AS A
SHORTWAVE PROPAGATES AROUND AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA. MUCH
OF THIS ACTIVITY HAS STAYED IN THE UPSTATE SO FAR, BUT SOME
SHOWERS/STORMS HAVE SHOWN UP IN THE UPPER CSRA. PWATS IN THIS
AREA HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 2", LEADING TO AN INCREASED CHANCE
OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, WHICH COULD CAUSE PONDING IN THE
ROADS. WHILE HIGH PRESSURE WORKS TO LIMIT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE,
ELEVATED ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE, GENERALLY 110-130% OF NORMAL PWAT
VALUES AND STRONG HEATING ARE STILL EXPECTED TO LEAD TO
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ELSEWHERE AS A FEW VERY WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH. THE
SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN PERSISTS INTO THIS WEEKEND AS PWAT VALUES
APPROACH 2" AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT BECOMES STRONGER, LEADING TO
INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN ORGANIZED CONVECTION FOR THE WEEKEND.
KEY MESSAGE 2: WARMING TEMPERATURES DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK
TIME FRAME MAY LEAD TO A PERIOD OF DANGEROUSLY HOT
TEMPERATURES.
ANOMALOUSLY STRONG RIDGING OVER THE AREA LATE THIS WEEK IS EXPECTED
TO LEAD TO 850 MB TEMPERATURES NEAR 20C, OR ABOUT 4-6C ABOVE
NORMAL THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY DURING PEAK DAYTIME HEATING. AT
THE SURFACE, THIS SHOULD BRING WELL ABOVE TEMPERATURES TO THE
AREA REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 90S, OR 10-15F ABOVE NORMAL. A
FEW LOCATIONS COULD SEE THE 100F MARK ON FRIDAY. AT THE SAME
TIME, SURFACE DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE GENERALLY IN THE 65-70F
RANGE IN THE AFTERNOONS. THE COMBINATION OF HEAT AND ABOVE
NORMAL MOISTURE COULD RESULT IN HEAT INDEX VALUES REACHING THE
INTO THE 100S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY FOR MANY LOCATIONS. ALTHOUGH
HEAT INDEX VALUES MAY NOT REACH CRITERIA FOR A HEAT ADVISORY
(108F), WE CONTINUE TO EVALUATE THE NEED FOR AN ADVISORY GIVEN
THAT THIS IS THE FIRST MAJOR HEAT THE YEAR.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING
THEN VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
SCT TO BKN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION WITH A DEVELOPING CUMULUS DECK SEEN ON REGIONAL
SATELLITE. SOUTHERLY TO SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS HAVE BEEN
PICKING UP TOWARD 5-8 KTS AS WELL AND SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THIS
EVENING. A COUPLE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN NOTED JUST NORTH OF AGS/DNL,
AND THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, BUT
COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED WITH CHANCES OF IMPACTS AT THE
TERMINALS FAIRLY LOW DUE TO THE LIMITED COVERAGE. TONIGHT, HIGH
CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO STREAM IN AS LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO
CALM WINDS DEVELOP. WHILE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD LINGER, HIGH
CLOUDS SHOULD HELP LIMIT THE OVERALL THREAT FOR FOG/STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT. THE 12Z HREF AND LAMP GUIDANCE INDICATE SPOTTY
STRATUS OR FOG COULD DEVELOP IN ANY POCKETS OF CLEARING, BUT
CONFIDENCE IN RESTRICTIONS AT THE TAF SITES IS FAIRLY LOW. AS
DEEPER MIXING ENSUES LATER WEDNESDAY MORNING, 7-9 KT
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS DEVELOP AS ANOTHER CUMULUS DECK FORMS INTO
THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED DIURNAL
SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON THIS WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...29
AVIATION...DH
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