393
FXUS62 KCAE 080457
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1257 AM EDT TUE SEP 8 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WITH CHANCES FOR
AFTERNOON STORMS THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1. SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WITH CHANCES FOR
AFTERNOON STORMS THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
DRIER AIR WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID-60S HAVE USHERED IN
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. EXPECT RELATIVELY QUICK RECOVERY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND STRENGTHENING RIDGING ALOFT OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS MOVING BACK INTO THE AREA. WHILE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
DOES NOT INDICATE THIS RIDGE WILL BE NEARLY AS STRONG AS LAST
WEEK, EXPECT A WARMING TREND MOST NOTABLE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH BLENDED GUIDANCE FAVORING
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S, AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. THIS COUPLED WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER-60S TO LOW-70S WILL LIKELY PUSH HEAT
INDICES UP TOWARDS THE TRIPLE DIGITS ONCE AGAIN.
MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED TODAY WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATING A RELATIVELY STRONG WARM NOSE ALOFT, KEEPING MUCH OF
THE AREA CAPPED, PREVENTING SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM DEVELOPING
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. WHILE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERNMOST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA,
GENERALLY DO NOT EXPECT A SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE INCREASE UNTIL
WEDNESDAY WHEN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE AND WEAK LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF IS PICKED UP BY THE DEVELOPING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME DIURNAL STORM CHANCES
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, FAVORING THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA BUT
IT IS NOT UNTIL A WEAK FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST LEAD
TO HIGHER PRECIP CHANCES FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS FAVORED DURING THE 24 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD.
A DRIER AIR MASS CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION WITH HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE UPSTATE WITH HIGHER LEVEL
CLOUDS SINKING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CSRA AND MORE HIGH CLOUDS
ARRIVING FROM THE OH VALLEY. STRATUS/FOG NOT EXPECTED WITH THE
DRIER AIR MASS ALTHOUGH CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT SOME RIVER
VALLEY FOG AT AGS BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE
FORECAST. LIGHT WINDS PICK UP FROM THE EAST AROUND 10 KNOTS
AFTER 14Z WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLE UP TO 18 KNOTS INTO THE
AFTERNOON.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...DRY THROUGH MID-WEEEK BEFORE
DIURNAL STORM CHANCES RETURN IN THE LATER PART OF THE WEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...NS
AVIATION...23
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