013
FXUS62 KCAE 210020
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
820 PM EDT MON APR 20 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. UPDATED AVIATION
DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE END OF
THIS WEEK AS DROUGHT CONDITIONS PERSIST AMID A DRY AIRMASS.
- 2. A GRADUAL PATTERN CHANGE IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD, WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE
END OF THIS WEEK AS DROUGHT CONDITIONS PERSIST AMID A DRY
AIRMASS.
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS CONTINUE THIS WEEK. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE COOL FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS AS A DRY AIRMASS BECOMES
ESTABLISHED. A COUPLE OF DRY FRONTS, TODAY AND WEDNESDAY, WILL
PASS THROUGH THE AREA WITH LITTLE EFFECT ON OUR SENSIBLE
WEATHER. THE ONLY CONCERN WOULD BE SOME BRIEF ELEVATED WINDS IN
THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE SC/NC BORDER WHERE THE PRESSURE
GRADIENTS WILL LIKELY BE STRONGEST. AS OF NOW, IT DOES APPEAR
WE WILL REMAIN BELOW ANY FIRE WEATHER HEADLINE CRITERIA DESPITE
DAILY MINIMUM RH VALUES AT OR BELOW THE CRITICAL 25%. SC
FORESTRY CONTINUES THE BURN BAN UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE, SO WE
WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON CONDITIONS AS THEY DEVELOP.
KEY MESSAGE 2: A GRADUAL PATTERN CHANGE IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD, WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES THIS WEEKEND.
TEMPERING OUR EXPECTATIONS A BIT, THE PATTERN APPEARS TO BE
SETTING UP FAVORABLY FOR INCREASING MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES
ACROSS THE AREA BEGINNING THIS WEEKEND. TELECONNECTIONS LIKE
THE NAO/PNA AND MJO ARE FORECAST TO SHIFT INTO SPACES THAT
FAVOR TROUGHING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS, RESULTING
IN BETTER RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. MEDIUM RANGE
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW MULTIPLE
DISTURBANCES PASSING THROUGH THE AREA TOWARDS THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD, COUPLED WITH BETTER MOISTURE (PW >125% OF
NORMAL STARTING SATURDAY). SO TENTATIVELY, IT APPEARS WE CAN
START CONSIDERING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MEASURABLE RAIN,
THOUGH IT LIKELY WILL MAKE ONLY A SLIGHT DENT IN OUR ONGOING
DROUGHT.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
DRY HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS LOCKED IN ACROSS THE REGION WITH
WINDS DROPPING OFF THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WINDS TUESDAY
MORNING WILL DEVELOP OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AFTER THE INVERSION
MIXES OUT, WITH A FEW GUSTS UP TO 10 KNOTS. A WEAK DRY FRONT
WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND FLIP WINDS
OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST BY THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ONLY
SOME SCATTERED UPPER LEVEL CLOUD EXPECTED DURING THE TAF PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH FRIDAY.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JAQ
AVIATION...42
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