761
FXUS62 KCAE 301045
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
645 AM EDT WED SEP 30 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 12Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. DRY CONDITIONS WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH FRIDAY.
- 2. RAIN CHANCES MAY ENTER LATE IN THE WEEK THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: DRY CONDITIONS WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT
OFFSHORE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, ALLOWING FOR A GRADUAL
RETURN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW AND INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. OVERALL, THIS PATTERN WILL
SUPPORT DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S
THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY, WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUING.
DEWPOINTS PREVIOUSLY IN THE 50S WILL BUILD INTO THE MID 60S
THROUGH FRIDAY AND MAY APPROACH THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S BY THE
WEEKEND.
KEY MESSAGE 2: RAIN CHANCES MAY ENTER LATE IN THE WEEK THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND.
THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW QUICKLY A BROAD
TROUGH SHIFTS INTO THE NORTHEAST LATER THIS WEEK. AT THE
SURFACE, A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION AND COULD STALL
NEARBY BEFORE A SHORTWAVE EVENTUALLY PUSHES THE FRONT THROUGH BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS IS EVIDENT IN A WIDE SPREAD OF HIGH
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. LONG RANGE GUIDANCE HAS
CONTINUED TO TREND TOWARD A SLOWER ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT, WITH
THE GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS CONTINUING TO HOLD OFF ON
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL UNTIL SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY. IN THE
MEANTIME, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE STARTING FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS LREF
PROBABILITIES FOR PWATS GREATER THAN 2" REACH 50-70% AMID SUBTLE
FORCING. TRENDS ARE SHOWING RAIN OF AT LEAST AN INCH ARE LIKELY
(40-60%). EXACT TOTALS ARE UNCERTAIN DUE TO INCONSISTENT MODEL
TRENDS. THE HEAVIEST RAIN APPEARS TO BE SUNDAY EVENING INTO
MONDAY WHEN THE SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH. HOWEVER, THE EXACT
TIMING THIS WEEKEND STILL REMAINS UNCERTAIN REGARDING THE
TROUGH, BUT INCREASING RAIN CHANCES SHOULD BRING TEMPERATURES
BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ALSO HINTS AT
ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK,
POTENTIALLY BRINING ANOTHER PERIOD OF DAMP, CLOUDY, AND COOL
CONDITIONS TO THE FA. OTHERWISE, WITH A STRONG AREA OF HIGH-
PRESSURE BUILDING OVER NEW ENGLAND NEXT WEEK, MORE FALL-LIKE
WEATHER RETURNS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD EXCEPT FOR
MORNING FOG/STRATUS THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PROVIDE QUIET WEATHER UNDER MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES. LIGHT TO CALM WINDS COMBINED WITH SOME INCREASE IN
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC
HAS RESULTED IN A LARGE AREA OF STRATUS CLOUDS ACROSS THE
EASTERN MIDLANDS AND ACROSS EASTERN GA. THIS RESULTED IN
PERIODIC LIFR CIGS AT AGS/DNL/OGB AND MAY LINGER THROUGH 13Z OR
SO. WINDS SHOULD PICK UP BY 15Z TO AROUND 5 KNOTS OR SO FROM
THE SOUTHEAST WITH ONLY A FEW FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE AFTERNOON CIRRUS. AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE,
MORE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW EXPECTED OVERNIGHT ABOVE THE SURFACE AND
GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING ANOTHER ROUND OF STRATUS AND POSSIBLE FOG
DEVELOPING AFTER 08Z ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN AND SPREADING
INLAND FAVORING THE CSRA AND EASTERN MIDLANDS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS IN STRATUS/FOG APPEAR
MORE LIKELY THURSDAY MORNING WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
INCREASING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION THIS WEEKEND MAY LEAD TO
ADDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...NS
AVIATION...23
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