641
FXUS62 KCAE 281140
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
640 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN WEDGE CONDITIONS DEVELOPING EARLY
NEXT WEEK AND A SIGNIFICANT WARM UP WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER LATE
IN THE WEEK. UPDATED 12Z TAF DISCUSSION.
KEY MESSAGES
1. SIGNIFICANT TEMPERATURE SWING EXPECTED SUN/MON AS WEDGE
CONDITIONS REDEVELOP.
2. WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND UNSETTLED WEATHER LATE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE #1: SIGNIFICANT TEMPERATURE SWING EXPECTED SUN/MON
AS WEDGE CONDITIONS REDEVELOP.
A WEAK UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION TODAY BUT WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNDAY
WITH ZONAL WESTERLY 500MB FLOW EXPECTED. A LOW LEVEL
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AT 850MB WILL DEVELOP PROVIDING SOME
DOWNSLOPING FLOW ALONG WITH 850MB TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES AROUND
5-7 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL RESULTING IN HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
SUNDAY IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES.
STRONG CONFLUENT 500MB FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO NEW
ENGLAND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL DRIVE A BACKDOOR FRONT SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SETTING UP FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR AT
LEAST IN SITU WEDGING IF NOT A COLD AIR DAMMING SCENARIO INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER REMAINS UNCERTAIN AS
UPPER FLOW IS MORE WESTERLY THAN SOUTHWESTERLY ATOP THE
NORTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL NEAR SURFACE WINDS. A NEGATIVE FACTOR
FOR SUSTAINING A STRONG WEDGE IS THAT IT DOESN'T APPEAR THERE
WILL BE MUCH PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA MON/TUE WITH MOST OF
IT STAYING JUST TO OUR NORTH ACROSS NC/VA WHERE SHORTWAVE ENERGY
TRACKS THROUGH THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS BUT CHANCES
REMAIN LOW AT THIS TIME. NEVERTHELESS EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE
BELOW NORMAL EACH DAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 50S
NORTHERN AND WESTERN MIDLANDS TO LOW TO MID 60S SOUTHERN
MIDLANDS AND CSRA.
KEY MESSAGE #2: WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER LATE WEEK.
A DEEP UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY
WILL RESULT IN DOWNSTREAM UPPER RIDGING OVER THE CAROLINAS AND
SOUTHEASTERN STATES WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING OFFSHORE
RESULTING IN A WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW. A DEEPER TROUGH DIGS INTO
THE FOUR CORNER REGION ON THURSDAY AND THEN INTO THE PLAINS BY
FRIDAY KEEPING THE UPPER RIDGING OVER OUR AREA THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK. NAEFS IS SHOWING STRONG WARM TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES
WITH VALUES ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE AT ALL LEVELS FROM 500MB
TO 1000MB AND VALUES UP TO THE 97TH PERCENTILE AT 850MB BY
FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL
WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S AND LOWER 80S FOR THE BACK HALF OF
NEXT WEEK. IN ADDITION TO THE WARM TEMPERATURES, UNSETTLED
WEATHER IS EXPECTED DUE TO INCREASED INSTABILITY FROM PERSISTENT
MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM DEEP SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT THE
SURFACE THROUGH 500MB WITH PWATS APPROACHING 200% OF NORMAL
LATE IN THE WEEK AND NAEFS SHOWING PWATS ABOVE THE 90TH
PERCENTILE. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN SOME DIURNAL CONVECTION ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. SEVERE WEATHER DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A CONCERN
AT THIS TIME IN OUR AREA BUT RATHER WOULD REMAIN FURTHER TO THE
WEST.
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
IFR/LIFR CEILINGS IN PLACE AS OF 12Z WITH GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT
THROUGH THE DAY. WIDESPREAD FOG LIKELY TONIGHT.
CEILING HEIGHTS ARE CURRENTLY SITTING AROUND 500 FEET AT ALL THE
TERMINALS. VISIBILITIES HAVE NOT BEEN MUCH OF AN ISSUE THROUGH
THE MORNING AND WHILE THERE MAY BE SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES,
PREDOMINANT RESTRICTIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE CEILINGS THROUGH
THE MORNING. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TRENDING LATER WITH THE
SCOURING OUT OF THE LOWER CLOUDS SO HAVE KEPT IFR CEILINGS IN AT
ALL TERMINALS UNTIL LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON WHEN A
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AND HELP TO IMPROVE
CONDITIONS. MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF
THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. WITH CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT,
SEEMS TO BE A FAVORABLE SETUP FOR FOG WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURES LIKELY DROPPING WELL BELOW CROSSOVER
TEMPS SO HAVE INCLUDED IFR VISIBILITIES AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOME
HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE VISIBILITIES COULD BE LOWER
BUT WILL WAIT FOR INCREASED CONFIDENCE BEFORE INCLUDING ANY LIFR
CONDITIONS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NIGHTLY LOW CEILING OR VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND THROUGH
MIDWEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...HC
AVIATION...96
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