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FXUS62 KCAE 071043
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
643 AM EDT SUN JUN 7 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. A TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN EXPECTED THIS WEEK WITH WARMING
TEMPS AND INCREASING MOISTURE.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: A TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN EXPECTED THIS WEEK WITH
WARMING TEMPS AND INCREASING MOISTURE.
WHILE DRY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND DEEP RIDGING ALOFT WILL
CONTROL THE PATTERN, MOISTURE RETURNS WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. THE PATTERN SYNOPTICALLY WILL NOT
CHANCE ALL THAT MUCH EACH DAY WITH 90TH PERCENTILE HEIGHTS AND
TEMPS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE PERIOD, SO TEMPS UP AROUND
90 F ARE LIKELY EACH DAY. RAIN CHANCES HOLD OFF UNTIL MONDAY
WHEN WE REACH SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWERS AND STORMS. DIURNAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
THEN EXPECTED MOST DAYS NEXT WEEK WITH A FAIRLY TYPICALLY SUMMER
PATTERN IN PLACE. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN A BIT TOO FAR
WEST FOR SIGNIFICANT RAIN PRODUCING PATTERN HOWEVER. PWAT'S
SHOULD CLIMB ABOVE 1.75" BUT WITH MOST OF THE DEEPEST MOISTURE
REMAINING TO THE WEST, QPF TOTALS ACROSS ALL GUIDANCE IS
GENERALLY ONLY 0.25-0.75" WITH SOME ISOLATED AREAS HIGHER.
AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD.
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SLOWLY OFF THE COAST, SHALLOW LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE. ALTHOUGH THE MAIN CLOUD COVER
WILL STILL BE THE CIRRUS PASSING THROUGH THE REGION, STILL CAN
NOT RULE OUT A FEW VFR CUMULUS CLOUDS DEVELOPING BY LATE
MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON, SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY.
WINDS WILL BE BETWEEN 5 TO 8 KTS FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FROM
15Z THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A SEA BREEZE MAY PUSH INLAND LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS, WHICH COULD BRIEFLY
TURN THE WIND DIRECTION MORE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AS IT PUSHES
THROUGH EACH TAF LOCATION. LATE TONIGHT WINDS THEN BECOME MORE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
WITH THE CLOUDS AND LIGHT WIND, FOG IS NOT EXPECTED.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE
MONDAY LEADING TO SCATTERED, MAINLY DIURNAL, SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AVIATION...CAL
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