783
FXUS62 KCAE 132327
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
727 PM EDT SAT JUN 13 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED DISCUSSION TO FOCUS NOW MORE ON SUNDAY. AVIATION
DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 00Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL INCREASE
THE RISK OF HEAT-RELATED ILLNESS.
- 2. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER POTENTIALLY
CONTINUING INTO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL
INCREASE THE RISK OF HEAT-RELATED ILLNESS.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION AGAIN
ON SUNDAY AS AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHEAST.
THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS AS TROUGHING ADVANCES EASTWARD. 850-MB TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST NEAR THE 90TH PERCENTILE SUNDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
FRONT. HEAT INDICES VALUES ON SUNDAY ARE FORECAST TO RANGE
BETWEEN 100F-105F ONCE AGAIN. DESPITE THE HEAT, THE AIRMASS IS
NOT PARTICULARLY MOISTURE-RICH, ALLOWING DEWPOINTS TO MIX OUT IN
THE AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD PREVENT WIDESPREAD HEAT INDEX VALUES
FROM EXCEEDING 108F (OUR HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA). ADDITIONALLY,
INCREASING CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION SUNDAY
DURING PEAK HEATING SHOULD HELP LIMIT MAX TEMPS AND REDUCE THE
DURATION OF THE MOST INTENSE HEAT.
IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT EXPERIMENTAL HEAT RISK IS HIGHLIGHTING
MAJOR TO LOCALIZED EXTREME HEAT IMPACTS ACROSS MOST OF THE FA
AGAIN FOR SUNDAY. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO IT BEING EARLY IN THE
SUMMER WITH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND WARM OVERNIGHT
LOWS. EVEN THOUGH HEAT INDICES ARE EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA, PLEASE BE SURE TO TAKE PROPER PRECAUTIONS. A
COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN.
KEY MESSAGE 2: THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER POTENTIALLY
CONTINUING INTO NEXT WEEK.
FOR SUNDAY, THE ENVIRONMENT APPEARS SOMEWHAT MORE FAVORABLE FOR
ORGANIZED CONVECTION, WITH IMPROVED FORCING AND INCREASED
SHEAR. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 20-30 KT, COMBINED WITH
INCREASED INSTABILITY COULD SUPPORT A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.
STORM MODE IS EXPECTED TO CONSIST OF A FEW LINEAR SEGMENTS AND
MULTICELL CLUSTERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT, WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
AS THE PRIMARY THREAT MAINLY IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. BEYOND THIS WEEKEND, PERSISTENTLY HIGH IVT (90TH
PERCENTILE PER NAEFS) SHOULD AID IN KEEPING THINGS UNSETTLED
EARLY AND MID WEEK. BY THE END END OF THIS UPCOMING WEEK, IT
APPEARS THAT ANOTHER FRONT MAY MAKE IT INTO THE AREA & ANOTHER
FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
OUTSIDE OF AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO, VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
GENERALLY LIGHT W TO NW WINDS OF 5-7 KTS ARE BEING NOTED ACROSS
THE TERMINALS AT THIS TIME. A BOUNDARY MOVING TOWARD CAE AND CUB
WITHIN THE NEXT 20-40 MINUTES WILL LIKELY CAUSE A BRIEF SHIFT TO
MORE EASTERLY. AS THE SUN CONTINUES TO SET, WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM OVERNIGHT. WINDS INCREASE
FROM THE SOUTHWEST, GUSTING TO 15-20 KTS AT TIMES AFTER ABOUT
15Z. AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION GOES, THE THREAT HAS DIMINISHED FOR
TONIGHT AND NOTHING IS EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS. SOME ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED AGAIN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON, BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW THAT THE TERMINALS WILL BE
AFFECTED AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME. THE
THREAT FOR FOG IS ALSO LOW DUE TO INCREASING LOW LEVEL WINDS AND
HIGH CLOUDS MOVING OVER THE AREA TONIGHT.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...GREATER RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED
EARLY NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH POSSIBLE ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ND/CAL
AVIATION...29
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