794
FXUS62 KCAE 101735
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
135 PM EDT SAT OCT 10 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE AREA FOR THE GREATEST THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER TODAY IS
TRENDING SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH. AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED
FOR 18Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN, GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THIS EVENING
- 2. A BRIEF TORNADO IS POSSIBLE IN THE FAR SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA
- 3. DRY, WARM WEATHER FAVORED FOR NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN, GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THIS
EVENING
WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. ALTHOUGH THEY MAY CAUSE SOME NUISANCE PONDING OF
WATER ALONG ROADWAYS, WE DO NOT EXPECT THEM TO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT
IMPACTS.
THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON
(AFTER 2 PM) AND INTO THE EVENING AS A SURFACE BOUNDARY SHIFTS
NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA (FA) AND HEAVIER
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY. PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAIN WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS AROUND 3 INCHES WILL BE
POSSIBLE AND MAY LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. HREF PMM AND WOFS 90TH
PERCENTILE SHOW ISOLATED VALUES IN THE 2 TO 4 INCH RANGE WITH
MAXIMUM VALUES FROM INDIVIDUAL CAMS STILL GENERALLY UNDER 4
INCHES. THE LOCATION OF THE HEAVIER RAINFALL SHOULD BE TIED TO
THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH INTO THE
EVENING. THIS WILL MEAN THAT THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING
WILL MAINLY BE SOUTH OF I-20 AND PERSIST THROUGH 9 PM OR SO.
THE THREAT OF FLOODING WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS CONVECTION
WEAKENS AND THE HEAVIEST RAIN EXITS THE FORECAST AREA.
A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM. IT WILL BE
BREEZY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA, WITH GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH
POSSIBLE. OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS, WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
KEY MESSAGE 2: A BRIEF TORNADO IS POSSIBLE IN THE FAR SOUTHERN
FORECAST AREA
THE MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST TODAY WILL BE A SURFACE BOUNDARY
CURRENTLY LOCATED TO OUR SOUTH. THIS BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO PUSH
NORTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING BRINGING A CONDITIONALLY
UNSTABLE AIR MASS UP INTO THE SOUTHERN FA. WOFS AND HRRR MODEL
TRENDS THIS MORNING HAVE TENDED TO KEEP THE BOUNDARY FURTHER
SOUTH WITH ONLY THE SOUTHERN-MOST PORTIONS OF OUR SOUTHERN TIER
OF COUNTIES WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. THIS SLOWER AND MORE LIMITED
PROGRESSION WILL LIMIT THE OVERALL THREAT OF TORNADOES THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE STRONGER WIND FIELDS SLOWLY PULL AWAY FROM THE
AREA. THE HIGH SHEAR AND SRH VALUES CURRENTLY OVER THE REGION
WILL LOWER AS WE CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THAT SAID,
EFFECTIVE SRH VALUES FROM 100 TO 200 M2/S2 COULD STILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR A BRIEF, WEAK TORNADO ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
AS IT LIFTS NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON. THE STABLE AIR MASS MAY
FIRST BREAK IN THE EXTREME SOUTHERN FA AROUND 2 PM WHICH WOULD
MARK THE BEGINNING OF THE POTENTIAL TORNADO THREAT. WARM
ADVECTION THROUGH THE EVENING WILL KEEP THE THREAT IN PLACE
LONGER THAN WHAT WOULD BE EXPECTED FROM A TYPICAL DIURNAL TREND.
MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT STORMS WILL WEAKEN BY 11 PM THIS
EVENING.
KEY MESSAGE 3: DRY, WARM WEATHER FAVORED FOR NEXT WEEK
GLOBAL ENSEMBLES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
WILL BUILD OVER THE DEEP SOUTH FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK. PWAT
VALUES BELOW 1.5 INCHES AND NAEFS 500 MB HEIGHTS AT OR ABOVE
THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR THE TIME OF YEAR SUPPORTS DRY WEATHER
WITH RISING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK.
HIGHS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK (TUE - THU); APPROACHING RECORD HIGHS.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY
MORNING BEFORE GRADUALLY IMPROVING.
WIDESPREAD IFR CEILINGS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AS SCATTERED
TO WIDESPREAD RAIN MOVES THROUGH WITH PERIODS OF VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS. GUSTS HAVE EASED OFF SOME, BUT WINDS GENERALLY
REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTHEAST TO EAST AROUND 10-12 KTS. RAIN
SHOWERS LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT, BUT A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE POSSIBLE, MAINLY NEAR AGS/DNL/OGB.
CONFIDENCE IN IMPACTS FROM THESE IS TOO LOW AT THE MOMENT FOR
ANYTHING BEYOND A PROB30 GROUP. TONIGHT, WINDS LIGHTEN A BIT
TOWARD 5-10 KTS, TURNING MORE SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY AS IFR
TO LIFR CEILINGS CONTINUE WITH RAIN SHOWERS. RAIN SHOULD
GRADUALLY COME TO AN END BETWEEN 10-15Z SUNDAY WITH CEILINGS
THAT GRADUALLY LIFT, THOUGH MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS BECOME MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY LATE IN THE PERIOD WHERE ADDITIONAL
GUSTS TOWARD 20 KTS COULD BE POSSIBLE HEADING INTO SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO IMPROVE LATER
ON SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ018-025.
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR SCZ018-025-030-035-041-
135>137.
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ016-
020>022-026>031-035-037-038-041-115-116-135>137.
GA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GAZ040-063>065-
077.
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR GAZ040-063>065-077.
DISCUSSION...CJR
AVIATION...DH
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