910
FXUS62 KCAE 021711
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
111 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS
BRINGING THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING. AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 18Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE TO END THE WEEKEND
AND ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.
DISCUSSION
- 1. RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE TO END THE WEEKEND
AND ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.
MIDDAY SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE STUBBORN LOW CLOUDS FROM THIS
MORNING STARTING TO BREAK UP ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION. MEANWHILE, A
LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING INTO THE FA FROM
THE WEST. THE CLEARING SKIES SHOULD HELP TO DESTABILIZE THE
ATMOSPHERE, PROMOTING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. ANOTHER ACTIVE
AFTERNOON IS LIKELY ON THE HORIZON AS THIS LINE SLOWLY MOVES
EAST ACROSS THE CWA. PWATS REMAIN IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES,
THEREFORE THE MAIN THREAT THIS AFTERNOON WILL ONCE AGAIN BE FROM
HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING, ESPECIALLY THE
AREAS THAT SAW BETWEEN 2 AND 5 INCHES OF RAIN YESTERDAY. ANY
ROBUST THUNDERSTORM THAT DEVELOPS COULD ALSO PRODUCE DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS BUT WITH LOWER CAPE AND DCAPE VALUES IN PLACE, THIS
THREAT IS LOWER TODAY AND MAY BE LIMITED TO LOCATIONS THAT HAVE
ALREADY BROKEN OUT OF THE OVERCAST.
AFTER TODAY, A CLOSED LOW IS FORECAST TO BREAK OFF OF THE MAIN
UPPER TROUGH MEANDERING OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY FOR SEVERAL
DAYS. AS SUCH, DAILY CHANCES (30 TO 70 PERCENT) FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AHEAD.
TEMPERATURES DURING THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR
TO SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL VALUES.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS BRINGING
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
VFR TO BEGIN THE TAF PERIOD. SCT-NUM SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AND PERSIST INTO THE EVENING. LITTLE AIRMASS CHANGE HAS
OCCURRED, SO EXPECT HEAVY RAIN AND THEREFORE VSBY RESTRICTIONS ALONG
WITH PERIODS OF LOWER CIGS. WINDS SHOULD BE A BIT STRONGER TODAY AND
FROM THE SOUTH AROUND 10 KNOTS. A FEW STRONGER GUSTS POTENTIALLY UP
TO 25 KTS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGEST TSRA. ANOTHER NIGHT OF
STRATUS REDEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR, WITH CIGS FALLING TO MVFR/IFR
INTO MONDAY MORNING. MOST PRECIP SHOULD SHIFT TOWARD THE EAST FOR
MONDAY WITH LESS COVERAGE AT THE TERMINALS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PERIODIC RAIN AND RESTRICTIONS
CONTINUE EARLY THIS WEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...7
AVIATION...EC
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