369
FXUS62 KCAE 252353
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
753 PM EDT THU JUN 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 00Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. DANGEROUS HEAT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS WEEKEND, CONTINUING
INTO NEXT WEEK. ADDITIONALLY, GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SIGNAL AN
IMPACTFUL AND INTENSE HEAT EVENT DEVELOPING BY THE END OF NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: DANGEROUS HEAT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS WEEKEND,
CONTINUING INTO NEXT WEEK. ADDITIONALLY, GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SIGNAL AN IMPACTFUL AND INTENSE HEAT EVENT DEVELOPING BY THE
END OF NEXT WEEK.
HEAT WILL BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER STORYLINE OVER THE NEXT 7-10
DAYS, WITH A LONG DURATION PERIOD OF INTENSE HEAT EXPECTED
THROUGH THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. AN INTENSE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL FIRST
APPEAR AS A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC ACROSS FLORIDA AND INTO THE GULF. AS AN INTENSE TROUGH
DIGS INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST, THIS WILL HELP TO AMPLIFY THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND ESTABLISH IT ACROSS THE MS/OH/TN RIVER
VALLEYS TO OUR NORTHWEST. HEAT AND HUMIDITY IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE BUILDING THROUGH MONDAY, WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES RISING
TO NEAR HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. A
THERMAL TROUGH IS LIKELY TO BE INDUCED ACROSS THE AREA BOTH
SAT/SUN, WHICH SHOULD ACT AS AN IMPETUS TO FORCE SCATTERED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS. THIS MAY HELP MANAGE HEAT INDEX
VALUES, BUT STRONG STORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE BOTH DAYS WITH CSU ML
PROBABILITIES HIGHLIGHTING THE AREA IN AN ELEVATED RISK FOR
DAMAGING WINDS IN ANY STRONG STORM.
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE MONDAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA AS A LOW-END BACKDOOR FRONT SETS
UP ACROSS THE AREA. THIS IS FORECAST TO USHER IN A BRIEF
"REPRIEVE" FROM THE HEAT OF SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS SLIGHTLY
LOWER DEWPOINT AIR PUSHES IN FROM THE NORTHEAST. AS USUAL, THE
BLENDED GUIDANCE LOOKS SLIGHTLY TOO HIGH WITH DEWPOINTS THROUGH
MUCH OF THE PERIOD, WHICH WILL IMPACT OVERALL HEAT INDICES A
BIT. STILL, THOUGH, IT WILL REMAIN VERY WARM DURING THIS PERIOD.
MID TO UPPER 90S ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY. 500 HPA
HEIGHTS WELL INTO THE 90TH PERCENTILE WILL BE DRIVING THIS, AND
THIS WILL HELP SET THE STAGE FOR THE HEAT THAT IS EXPECTED LATER
IN THE WEEK.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A FAVORABLE SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN
FOR AN INTENSE HEAT WAVE NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO
ESTABLISH ITSELF AT THE TAIL END OF THIS PERIOD, STRETCHING
INTO THE JULY 4TH WEEKEND. ITS TOUGH TO COMMENT ON MUCH BEYOND
THE D7 PORTION OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD (THURSDAY, JUL 2);
HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT INTENSE HEAT WILL
BUILD BY THIS POINT AND PERSIST INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN MATCHES MANY OF OUR MORE INTENSE HEATWAVES,
WITH AN ANOMALOUS 500 HPA RIDGE BUILDING TO OUR NORTHWEST AND
FACILITATING THE ADVECTION OF VERY HIGH 850 HPA TEMPERATURES
FROM THE LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKIES EASTWARD TOWARDS THE MID-
ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ACROSS THE BOARD IS
SHOWING ~70-80% PROBABILITIES OF >20C 850 HPA TEMPS ARRIVING BY
THURSDAY, DRIVING HIGHS NEAR 100F BEGINNING THAT DAY. IT APPEARS
THAT A RELATIVELY "DRY" AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE, WHICH JUST
TRANSLATES TO "WE PROBABLY WON'T HAVE 70F+ DEWPOINTS ALL DAY"
THIS TIME OF YEAR. THIS SHOULD FOSTER AN EFFECTIVE MIXING
REGIME, WHICH WOULD ALIGN WITH WHAT THE BLENDED AND ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE IS SHOWING FOR FORECAST HIGHS DURING THIS PERIOD. ONE
THING TO WATCH FOR IN THE COMING DAYS WILL BE WHETHER OR NOT
GUIDANCE POINTS TO ANY CONSISTENT SIGNALS FOR CONVECTION IN
THIS PERIOD. THIS WILL BE A MAJOR MODULATING POINT FOR JUST HOW
WARM WE GET. WHILE IT IS TOO EARLY TO SPECULATE ON JUST HOW HOT
WE WILL BE, FROM A PATTERN RECOGNITION PERSPECTIVE, CONFIDENCE
IS GROWING THAT WE WILL SEE LONG DURATION, INTENSE HEAT OVERLAP
WITH A MAJOR HOLIDAY WEEKEND BEGINNING AT THE END OF THIS
FORECAST PERIOD. PLEASE REVIEW HEAT SAFETY TIPS NOW SO THAT YOU
ARE WELL PREPARED!
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE, BUT BRIEF CIG RESTRICTIONS COULD BE
POSSIBLE NEAR THE CSRA EARLY FRIDAY. SCATTERED DIURNAL
SHOWERS/STORMS EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE.
A COUPLE STRAY, BUT DIMINISHING, SHOWERS ARE NEAR THE CSRA AND
EASTERN MIDLANDS THIS EVENING AS THE WEAKENING MID LEVEL MCV
PUSHING ACROSS GA CONTINUES EAST/NORTHEASTWARD. THIS FEATURE HAS
ALSO USHERED IN SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THAT ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE TONIGHT, THOUGH THEY ARE A BIT MORE SCATTERED AT THE
MOMENT. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM TONIGHT, BUT A
20 KT LLJ SHOULD HELP USHER IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WHERE RECENT
HRRR RUNS AND THE 12Z HREF HINT AT A COUPLE PATCHES OF STRATUS
DEVELOPING NEAR THE CSRA AFTER 08-10Z. THIS IS ALSO SUPPORTED IN
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. OVERALL, CONFIDENCE IN THESE CEILINGS
IMPACTING MAINLY AGS/DNL/AIK IS LOW AT THE MOMENT, BUT IS WORTH
MENTIONING. SOUTHERLY WINDS PICK UP AROUND 7-9 KTS BY THE MID
MORNING FRIDAY WITH SCATTERED CUMULUS AROUND 4000-6000 FT. A
RETURN OF SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWERS/STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING IS EXPECTED AND THUS HAVE ADDED A PROB30 GROUP AT
EACH TAF SITE TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. COVERAGE SHOULD DIMINISH
TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY SHOULD YIELD DIURNAL CONVECTION AND
POSSIBLE ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS. BRIEF MORNING VSBY/CIG
RESTRICTIONS ALSO POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...PL
AVIATION...DH
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