342
FXUS62 KCAE 190415
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1215 AM EDT THU MAR 19 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. FROST ADVISORY TONIGHT AS LIGHT WINDS, CLEAR SKIES AND COLD
TEMPERATURES WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF FROST DEVELOPING.
- 2. WARMING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING IN EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: FROST ADVISORY TONIGHT AS LIGHT WINDS, CLEAR SKIES
AND COLD TEMPERATURES WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF FROST DEVELOPING.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH WINDS BECOMING
LIGHT. HREF GUIDANCE INDICATES INCREASING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS THIS
EVENING INTO EARLY TONIGHT WHICH WILL SOMEWHAT LIMIT RADIATIONAL
COOLING EARLY. AFTER MIDNIGHT, CONSENSUS GUIDANCE CLEARS SKIES OUT
WHICH WILL LEAD TO A RELATIVELY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FROST TO
DEVELOP, ESPECIALLY NEAR SUNRISE, ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
LIKELY BE MARGINAL. WITH BLENDED GUIDANCE SHOWING RELATIVELY LOW
PROBABILITIES OF SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES AND A MODERATING AIR MASS
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING, HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE A FROST ADVISORY
1AM TO 9AM THURSDAY MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY BETWEEN 33-
36F, ALTHOUGH SOME TYPICAL COLD SPOTS MAY DIP BELOW FREEZING.
KEY MESSAGE 2: WARMING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING IN
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WARMING TREND EXPECTED FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AS UPPER
RIDGING STRENGTHENS, CENTERED TO THE WEST OF THE AREA WITH BLENDED
GUIDANCE SHOWING RELATIVELY HIGH CONFIDENCE TEMPERATURE FORECAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH AN IQR OF ONLY A FEW DEGREES. BY SUNDAY,
NAEFS MEAN INDICATES THAT 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE THE 90TH
PERCENTILE IN WHAT IS EXPECTED TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD,
GENERALLY MID 80S. MOISTURE GRADUALLY INCREASING AS WELL INTO THIS
WEEKEND WITH BETWEEN 50-70% OF GEFS AND EC ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
INDICATING PWATS RISE ABOVE AN INCH SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. WHILE
OVERALL, BLENDED POPS REMAIN LOW, MAINLY OWING TO LIMITED FORCING
WITH RIDGING OVER THE AREA, THERE REMAINS AN OUTSIDE SHOT AT SOME
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR EVEN AN ISOLATED STORM THIS WEEKEND. HIGHER
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONT THAT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE REMAINS
SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT LEADING TO
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FORECAST EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
WITH NARROW SURFACE RIDGE PARKED OVERHEAD, LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS WILL RULE THE TAFS TODAY. A BATCH OF MID TO HIGH CLOUDS
WILL PASS THROUGH AS A JET STREAK MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEEP TROUGH ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD,
BUT WILL CAUSE NO ISSUES AT THE TERMINALS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SIMILARLY TRANQUIL WEATHER IS
EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS ON FRIDAY. AS MOISTURE INCREASES OVER
THE WEEKEND, THERE IS A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF MORNING
STRATUS AND FOG, AS WELL AS WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS,
BUT BUT CHANCES FOR RESTRICTIONS ARE STILL NOT TOO HIGH. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH ON MONDAY, INCREASING THE
CHANCES FOR SOME CLOUDS AND SHOWERS.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR SCZ016-018-
020>022-025>031-035-037-038-041-115-116-135>137.
GA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR GAZ040-063>065-
077.
DISCUSSION...EC
AVIATION...FA
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