016
FXUS62 KCAE 130101
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
900 PM EDT SAT SEP 12 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED KEY MESSAGE 1 TO REFLECT LATEST FORECAST TRENDS. AVIATION
DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 00Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS STILL POSSIBLE TONIGHT.
- 2. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LAST INTO NEXT WEEK WITH DRIER
CONDITIONS RETURNING.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS STILL POSSIBLE TONIGHT.
UPPER TROUGHING CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. DESPITE LOSS OF HEATING, SOME INSTABILITY REMAINS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS ARE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.
LIGHTNING ACTIVITY HAS STARTED TO RAMP UP AS WELL. OVERALL SEVERE
THREAT IS LOW, BUT SOME GUSTY WINDS DUE TO PRECIP LOADING ARE
POSSIBLE. AFTER THE PRECIP MOVES THROUGH THIS EVENING, EXPECT
ANOTHER ROUND OF STRATUS AND POSSIBLY SOME PATCHY FOG HEADING INTO
SUNDAY MORNING.
KEY MESSAGE 2: ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LAST INTO NEXT WEEK WITH
DRIER CONDITIONS RETURNING.
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE TROUGH MOVES OFFSHORE AND STRONG
RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. PRECIP CHANCES ARE EXPECTED
TO DIMINISH AS A RESULT, AND PW VALUES FALL BELOW 1.6". THE RIDGE IS
THEN FORECAST TO REMAIN IN CONTROL MUCH OF NEXT WEEK, AND
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH DECENT CONFIDENCE AND
SMALL IQR'S. MONDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH A NOTABLE DROP
SEVERAL DEGREES BY TUESDAY DUE TO A GENERALLY DRY BACKDOOR FRONT
CROSSING THE REGION. SURFACE DEWPOINTS ALSO LOOK TO DROP FURTHER,
HELPING MAKE THE AIRMASS MORE FALL-LIKE. STILL, HIGHS REMAIN ABOVE
TYPICAL MID-SEPTEMBER VALUES. WE'LL CONTINUE TO WATCH FOR SOME
WEAKNESS ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE. MODELS ARE DEPICTING AN
INTERESTING FEATURE MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK REGARDING AN UPPER LOW
ROTATING AROUND THE HIGH FROM NEW ENGLAND SOUTH ALONG THE ATLANTIC
COAST. THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THIS LOW'S
EVOLUTION IN THE EXTENDED, INCLUDING IF OR WHEN IT MAY INFLUENCE OUR
SENSIBLE WEATHER.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FROM OGB TO
CAE/CUB THIS EVENING. ANOTHER ROUND OF MORNING FOG/STRATUS WILL BE
POSSIBLE SUNDAY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PUSH THROUGH CAE/CUB AND OGB THIS
EVENING WITH BRIEF VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN HEAVY RAIN. WINDS MAY ALSO
GUST TO 25-30 KTS. OTHERWISE, THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CLEAR LATE THIS
EVENING WITH WINDS RELAXING TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE. LINGERING DEBRIS
CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT, ALONG WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF AT
LEAST PATCHY STRATUS/FOG EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY FOR ANY
LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVE HEAVY RAINFALL. THESE RESTRICTIONS COULD
CONTINUE THROUGH 14-16Z SUNDAY BEFORE VFR CONDITIONS RETURN WITH 5-8
KT WINDS OUT OF THE WEST. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON, BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS
TIME.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOWER RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY BUT THE
POTENTIAL FOR EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS PERSISTS INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...EC/42
AVIATION...EC
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