002
FXUS62 KCAE 260516
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
116 AM EDT MON OCT 26 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ADDED MENTION OF LOW END POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FROST MONDAY
NIGHT, MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF I-20. AVIATION DISCUSSION
UPDATED FOR 06Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THIS WEEK WITH GRADUALLY WARMING
TEMPERATURES.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THIS WEEK WITH GRADUALLY
WARMING TEMPERATURES.
NO CHANGE IN THE OVERALL FORECAST THINKING WITH THE EXTENDED
DRY PERIOD CONTINUING, AND LIKELY PERSISTING THROUGH THE END OF
OCTOBER. UPPER RIDGE WILL SLOWLY TRANSLATE EAST THROUGH THE WEEK
AND FLATTEN OUT BY THURSDAY, WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE NORTHEAST AND RIDGES SOUTH ACROSS THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES EACH DAY WITH FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE GIVEN VERY
SMALL NBM IQRS. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS IS MONDAY NIGHT WHEN THERE
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S, MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF I-20, RESULTING IN PATCHY
FROST IN NORMALLY COLD LOCATIONS. THE THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR
WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO CONSIDER A FROST ADVISORY AT THIS TIME, BUT
THE DAY SHIFT WILL REEVALUATE FOR THE NEXT FORECAST PACKAGE.
OTHERWISE, EXPECT A CONTINUATION OF WARM DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS
THIS WEEK. TEMPERATURES MAY REACH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL VALUES
BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE PATTERN STARTS TO SHOW SOME SIGNS
OF BREAKING DOWN WITH THE FIRST CHANCE OF RAIN ARRIVING NEAR THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES
TO BRING DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS. PASSING VFR CLOUDS FROM
ONSHORE FLOW HAVE CLEARED. FOR MONDAY, CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS
REMAIN AS WINDS PICK BACK UP TO 7-10 KNOTS BY MIDDAY WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 15 KNOTS. ANOTHER CALM AND CLEAR NIGHT
MONDAY EVENING ALTHOUGH A FEW VFR HIGH CLOUDS MAY PASS BETWEEN
0Z AND 06Z. NO FOG IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT DUE TO
DRY CONDITIONS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK; ALTHOUGH GUSTS MAY SUBSIDE A BIT IN THE
10 TO 15 KNOTS RANGE. DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...7
AVIATION...NS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page