675
FXUS62 KCAE 260044
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
744 PM EST THU DEC 25 2025
SYNOPSIS
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND, THOUGH A BRIEF COOL DOWN IS
EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY. THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT EARLY
NEXT WEEK BRINGS MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS TO CLOSE OUT THE YEAR,
THOUGH THE CHANCE OF RAIN DURING THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS IS
RELATIVELY LOW.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- AREAS OF FOG POSSIBLE
A FRONT WILL DIP INTO THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT NEARING THE FORECAST
AREA IN THE EARLY MORNING. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS ABNORMALLY HIGH
FOR THE TIME OF THE YEAR WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S. ABUNDANT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT AND RELATIVELY
DRY AIR ALOFT IS A FAVORABLE SET UP FOR LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
OVERNIGHT. PATCHY FOG IN OUR FOG PRONE LOCATIONS SEEMS LIKELY
HOWEVER WE MAY SEE MORE WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOP EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. AS THE FRONT NEARS THERE IS A NON-ZERO CHANCE OF AN
ISOLATED SHOWER AROUND DAYBREAK BUT ONLY A VERY LIMITED NUMBER
OF CAMS AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW MEASURABLE RAINFALL SO WE HAVE
KEPT POPS BELOW SLIGHT CHANCE.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- BRIEF COOL DOWN FRIDAY, MAINLY FOR THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS.
- TEMPERATURES GO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE FOR SATURDAY ONCE AGAIN.
A SHORTWAVE RIDING THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED
MOVE THROUGH THE EASTERN US. AS RESULT, A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO PUSH INTO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS SHOULD BRING MUCH
COOLER AIR TO THE REGION, BUT THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN JUST HOW
FAR SOUTH THE FRONT WILL MAKE IT. THERE REMAINS PLENTY OF SPREAD
IN TEMPERATURES AMONG THE GEFS AND ENS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FOR
LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-26 CORRIDOR, LEADING TO A
LOWER CONFIDENCE FORECAST. HIGH TEMPS IN THIS AREA WILL BE VERY
DEPENDENT ON THE FRONT. SPREAD AMONG THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS IS
MUCH LOWER IN THE CSRA, INDICATING HIGHER CONFIDENCE, WHERE
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER 70S. COOLER TEMPS NORTH OF
THERE, WITH 50S POSSIBLE NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA BORDER, LEADING
TO A LARGE TEMP GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION. LATEST HI-RES
GUIDANCE INDICATES A STRAY SHOWER COULD SNEAK INTO THE FAR
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA, BUT WITH THE AIR BEING
DRY, PROBABILITIES ARE LOW (<10%). THE UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVES
EAST FOR SATURDAY, ALLOWING THE RIDGE TO FILL BACK IN AND AID IN
PUSHING THE COLD FRONT OUT OF THE REGION. AS A RESULT, MUCH
WARMER TEMPS RETURN FOR SATURDAY.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- RELATIVELY WARM TO START THE WEEK, FOLLOWED BY MUCH COLDER
AIR FOR MIDWEEK.
ANOTHER PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS FORECAST TO TRANSLATE
AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE, SENDING ANOTHER BACKDOOR COLD FRONT INTO
THE REGION ON SUNDAY. SIMILAR TO FRIDAY, TEMPS DEPEND A LOT ON
HOW FAR SOUTH THIS FRONT CAN MAKE IT, SO THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN THE HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY DUE TO THIS.
MONDAY IS TRENDING WARMER AS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SLOW THE
PROGRESSION OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. ONCE THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA, MUCH COLDER (10-15F BELOW AVERAGE) TEMPS MOVE
INTO THE REGION FOR MIDWEEK. IN ADDTION TO THE COLDER WEATHER,
CHANCES FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY ARRIVE AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY MAJORITY OF THE TAF PERIOD BUT POSSIBLE
MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY'S FRIDAY MORNING.
THE WEATHER IS QUIET CURRENTLY. CLEAR SKIES ARE DOMINANT AT
AREA TAF SITES AND ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SO FOR THE NEXT 6-8
HOURS. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS LOCATED TO OUR NORTH AND IS
SLOWLY SHIFTING SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE AREA, EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH SOMETIME AFTER 09Z. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE MVFR
OR IFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING BEHIND THIS FRONT IN AN IN-SITU
WEDGE KIND OF SETUP. NORTH OR NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST
TO DEVELOP IN THE IMMEDIATE AFTERMATH, HELPING TO HOLD THIS IN
PLACE. THE EXTENT OF THIS BRIEF WEDGE SETUP IS TOUGH TO PIN DOWN
AS THE FRONT MAY STRUGGLE TO GET SOUTHWEST OF
COLUMBIA/ORANGEBURG. GUIDANCE IS SHOWING VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT WITHIN A MOIST AND CALM ENVIRONMENT IN
THE CSRA, SO I THINK ALL THE TAF SITES WILL SEE RESTRICTIONS AT
SOME POINT OR ANOTHER. HAVE TEMPOS FOR ALL SITES FOR VARYING
LEVELS OF RESTRICTIONS, PRIMARILY CEILING RELATED AT
CAE/CUB/OGB. AT AGS/DNL, ITS FOR VISIBILITIES INITIALLY AND THEN
POTENTIALLY CEILINGS BEHIND THE FRONT - THOUGH, IT IS NO SURE
THING THE FRONT ACTUALLY ARRIVES THERE. GUIDANCE SEEMS
CONFIDENT THAT THE LOW CLOUDS WILL MIX OUT TOMORROW AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS WE SHIFT INTO THE WARM SECTOR OF A PASSING SYSTEM
TO THE NORTH OF OUR AREA. HOWEVER, THIS IS ALSO NOT A SURE
THING AS RESTRICTIONS TEND TO BE TOUGH TO SCOUR OUT WITHOUT A
COLD FRONT. SO WE SHALL SEE! LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY WITHIN THIS TAF
PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
LINGERING MOISTURE COULD BRING MORNING FOG OR STRATUS COULD
OCCUR INTO THIS WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY AGAIN ON MONDAY.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
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