935  
FXUS62 KCAE 161801  
AFDCAE  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC  
201 PM EDT FRI APR 16 2021  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL  
RETURN TO THE AREA SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY AS A WEAK LOW  
PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSES THE REGION AND BEST CHANCES IN THE CSRA  
AND SOUTHERN MIDLANDS. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR EARLY  
NEXT WEEK BEFORE ANOTHER FRONT CROSSES THE REGION MIDWEEK  
BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS FOR LATE NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
 
 
THIS AFTERNOON...TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN SLOW TO RISE DUE TO SOME  
HIGHER CLOUDS AND LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS. HOWEVER, HIGHER  
CLOUDS ARE THINNING AND SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME ADDITIONAL HEATING  
AND WINDS WILL SWING AROUND TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF A  
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH. EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH THE UPPER 60S TO  
LOWER 70S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.  
 
TONIGHT...A DRY AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WITH  
PWATS AROUND 0.4-0.5 INCHES AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S. A  
DEAMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL APPROACH  
FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT AND BRING SOME POTENTIAL LIGHT  
SHOWERS TO THE REGION DURING THE 06Z-12Z TIME FRAME. MOST OF THE  
HREF MEMBERS INDICATE SOME REFLECTIVITY RETURNS MOVING INTO THE  
FORECAST AREA AFTER 07Z-08Z BUT WITH SO MUCH LOW LEVEL DRY AIR  
TO OVERCOME THINK IT WILL BE REALLY DIFFICULT TO OBSERVE  
MEASURABLE RAIN THROUGH 12Z. THEREFORE, WILL KEEP THE FORECAST  
DRY THROUGH 08Z THEN BRING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INTO THE CSRA AND  
SOUTHERN MIDLANDS THROUGH 12Z. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL BE  
LIMITED BY CLOUD COVER BUT THE THICKNESS OF THE CLOUDS MAY BE  
THIN ENOUGH EARLY TO ALLOW FOR SOME EARLY COOLING WITH TEMPS  
DROPPING QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET DUE TO THE DRY AIR IN PLACE.  
EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S TO AROUND 50 DEGREES.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
 
 
WELL, GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED ITS DRYING TREND FROM YESTERDAY.  
SYNOPTIC SETUP LOOKS SIMILAR TO WHAT WE'VE BEEN ADVERTISING FOR  
A COUPLE OF DAYS. A DEEP TROUGH AXIS WILL BE SET UP ACROSS THE  
CENTRAL AND WESTERN CONUS, WITH A SHORTWAVE PUSHING INTO THE OH  
VALLEY ON SATURDAY MORNING. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY DAMPEN  
AS IT APPROACHES US. AT THE SURFACE, A LEFTOVER FRONT ALONG THE  
GULF COAST WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHWARD TOWARDS US AND BRING  
WITH IT A SLOW INCREASE IN MOISTURE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE  
SOUTH. HOWEVER, THIS SLUG OF MOISTURE CONTINUES TO LOOK LESS AND  
LESS IMPRESSIVE, AS DOES OVERALL FORCING FOR THIS EVENT. AS A  
RESULT, ALL MODELS HAVE TRENDED MUCH DRIER, TO THE POINT THAT I  
AM NOT EVEN CONFIDENT THAT THE MIDLANDS AND POINTS NORTHWARD  
WILL SEE MORE THAN MINIMAL RAINFALL TOMORROW. WILL BE LOWERING  
POPS QUITE A BIT EVERYWHERE. CAMS THIS MORNING ARE REALLY  
INDICATING THE BEST CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN  
SHOWERS OCCURRING SATURDAY EVENING, BUT EVEN THEN THIS STUFF  
WILL STRUGGLE. THE SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO THE POINT  
THAT IT WON'T BE A FORMIDABLE FORCING MECHANISM, AND PWS > 1"  
LIKELY WON'T MAKE IT PAST OUR SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES. MODEL  
SOUNDINGS AT CAE INDICATE A LARGE DRY LAYER NEAR THE SURFACE, AS  
WELL. ALL IN ALL, THIS IS A VERY UNIMPRESSIVE SYSTEM. WE MAY  
NOT EVEN SEE DENSE CLOUDS COVER ALL DAY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN  
2/3RDS OF COUNTIES! HIGHS WILL LIKELY BE COOLEST ACROSS THE FAR  
SOUTH, AND IT WOULDN'T SURPRISE ME IF OUR MIDDLE/NORTHERN  
COUNTIES REACHED THE LOW-MID 70S UNDER LESSER CLOUD COVER.  
 
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY LOOKS AT LEAST INTERESTING AT THIS  
POINT AS GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED TOWARDS A SECONDARY WAVE OF PRECIP  
TRYING TO MAKE ITS WAY IN HERE. I AM JUST AS HESITANT ABOUT  
THIS, AS WE'LL STILL BE FAIRLY DRY (PWS GENERALLY ~1.1" OR  
LESS). AS A RESULT, POPS WILL REMAIN PRETTY LOW THROUGH THAT  
PERIOD, WITH A MAX OF 25% HELD ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHERN AREAS.  
THIS COULD END UP BEING OUR BEST CHANCE OF RAIN, THOUGH, WHICH  
MAKES THIS SYSTEM LARGELY DISAPPOINTING IF YOU WANTED RAIN. LOWS  
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 50S, AND HIGHS ON SUNDAY  
GENERALLY SHOULD BE IN THE 70S WITH DECREASING CLOUDS THROUGH  
THE DAY.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
 
 
NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED DURING THIS PERIOD, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF  
GUIDANCE TRENDING TOWARDS A STRONG MID WEEK SURFACE HIGH.  
PATTERN WILL GENERALLY REMAIN SIMILAR TO WHAT WE HAVE SEEN THE  
PAST FEW DAYS, WITH A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH CENTERED ACROSS THE  
CENTRAL/EASTERN CONUS, WITH MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES TRAVERSING THAT  
TROUGH. WE'LL SEE A GENERAL SURFACE TROUGH PRESENT OFF THE EAST  
COAST MONDAY/TUESDAY. A LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP  
ALONG THAT AS A SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY, BUT  
WHETHER THAT BRINGS US RAIN OR NOT IS STILL UP IN THE AIR  
AMONGST THE MODELS. THE LONGWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT  
EASTWARD THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS A STRONGER NORTHERN  
STREAM SHORTWAVE REINFORCES THE TROUGH AND KICKS IT TO THE EAST  
COAST.  
 
SENSIBLE WEATHER SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUIET THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE  
ONLY CHANCE OF RAIN LOOKS TO BE MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY AS THAT  
LOW PRESSURE MOVES TO OUR EAST. ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES OF >0.1"  
OF QPF ARE VERY LOW ON TUESDAY, BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH IN  
THAT SOLUTION RIGHT NOW SO I'LL ELECT TO KEEP THE FORECAST THE  
SAME FOR THE TIME BEING. BEYOND THAT, WEDNESDAY WILL SEE A DRY  
AND STRONG COLD FRONT PUSH THROUGH. BEHIND IT, A STRONG SURFACE  
HIGH WILL PUSH COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA FOR AT LEAST  
THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY AND NEXT WEEKEND, THAT HIGH WILL SHIFT TO  
OUR EAST AND MAY ALLOW FOR SOME GULF MOISTURE TO RETURN AND  
BRING RAINFALL WITH IT. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S AND  
LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
 
 
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD.  
 
GENERALLY JUST SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS PASSING OVERHEAD THROUGH  
MIDNIGHT THEN SOME LOWERING OF THE CLOUD DECK AFTER 08Z TO  
AROUND 10KFT AS INCREASING MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT  
ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING DEAMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE. DO NOT  
EXPECT VSBY RESTRICTIONS DUE TO DRY AIR IN PLACE AND CLOUD  
COVER. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY VARIABLE THIS AFTERNOON BUT COULD  
HAVE A PREVAILING WEST SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION AFTER 20Z UNTIL  
SUNSET, THEN WINDS WILL GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM OVERNIGHT.  
 
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VISIBILITY AND CEILING RESTRICTIONS  
POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS MORE MOISTURE MOVES INTO  
THE AREA.  
 

 
   
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
GA...NONE.  
SC...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab SC Page
The Nexlab GA Page Main Text Page