986
FXUS62 KCAE 161845
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
245 PM EDT TUE JUN 16 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
HEAVY RAIN THREAT HAS INCREASED A BIT LATE IN THE WEEK.
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 18Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK
WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE LATE THIS WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE REST OF THE
WORK WEEK WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE LATE THIS
WEEK.
BROAD TOUGHING IS SEEN ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS THIS AFTERNOON
AS A 90-100 KT UPPER JET STREAK TRAVERSES THE LOWER TENNESSEE
VALLEY. THIS HAS LEAD TO AN AREA OF UPPER DIFFLUENCE/DIVERGENCE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM
THE WESTERN FA BACK TO THE WEST ACROSS GA INTO SOUTHERN AL. A
COUPLE THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THE COMING HOURS AS
SATELLITE SHOWS SOME BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER, BUT SEVERE WEATHER
IS NOT EXPECTED IF CONVECTION CAN DEVELOP. AS PWAT'S CONTINUE TO
RAISE SLIGHTLY TOWARD 1.90-2.0" AND UPPER FORCING FROM THE JET
STREAK REMAINS IN PLACE OVERTOP THE STALLED SURFACE FRONT,
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT, WHERE EFFICIENT RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE AS SHOWERS
POSSIBLY TRAIN OVER THE FA. THE OVERALL FLASH FLOOD RISK IS
LOW, BUT A COUPLE SPOTS OF NUISANCE FLOODING CANNOT BE RULED OUT
IF TRAINING OCCURS OVER A COUPLE HOURS. THE UPPER JET IS
EXPECTED TO EXIT THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY AS WEAK 500MB HEIGHT
RISES ARE SEEN, BRINGING SLIGHTLY DRIER CONDITIONS WITH THE
BEST CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS NEAR THE FAR
SOUTHEASTERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA.
THERE HAS NOT BEEN A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE OUTLOOK FOR THE
LATE WEEK AND INTO THIS WEEKEND, BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL MAINLY LATE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY HAS INCREASED A
BIT. AS WHAT IS NOW POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE ONE (PTC ONE)
CONTINUES TOWARD THE NORTHEAST FROM THE NORTHWESTERN GULF AND
MOVES INLAND THURSDAY, ITS REMNANT TROPICAL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED
TO BE PICKED UP IN WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW WITH A
SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE COLD FRONT NEARING THE FA. AS MOISTURE
INCREASES, SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHERE AI/ML GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO HINT A COUPLE STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS
COULD BE POSSIBLE. AROUND 59% OF THE INDIVIDUAL MEMBERS IN THE
LREF CLUSTER ANALYSIS SHOW THE MAIN PLUME OF MOISTURE WITH
PWAT'S THAT NEAR 2.10-2.40" (140-170% OF NORMAL) MOVING IN LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DURING THIS
PERIOD ARE VERY MOIST AND HAVE WARM CLOUD DEPTHS THAT EXCEED
13,500 FT WITH A 30-40 KT LLJ IN PLACE, SIGNALING THE POTENTIAL
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL DURING THIS WINDOW. OVERALL, A FAIRLY COMPLEX
FORECAST SCENARIO IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH THE INTERACTION OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT AND REMNANTS OF
PTC ONE, BUT PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL AS A
MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER. SLIGHTLY DRIER CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORED ACROSS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE INTO THIS WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
RESTRICTIONS DEVELOPING TONIGHT ALONG WITH INCREASING CHANCES
FOR RAIN.
VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY IN PLACE AT ALL TERMINALS WITH CEILINGS
REMAINING AROUND 10KFT OR HIGHER AND SCATTERED CLOUDS BETWEEN
3500-5000 FT. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY SOUTH OF THE
TERMINALS THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON BEFORE MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO INCREASE INTO THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. WINDS
GENERALLY OUT OF THE WEST/SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
INTO THE UPPER TEENS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH
MIXING HAS GENERALLY BEEN LIMITED. TONIGHT, WITH INCREASING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE, CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL INCREASE. WHILE CEILINGS
WILL BE THE DOMINANT RESTRICTION, BRIEF MVFR VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN SOME HEAVIER SHOWERS, BUT FOR THE
MOST PART, RAIN SHOULD BE GENERALLY LIGHT. INCREASING CONFIDENCE
IN DEVELOPING IFR CEILINGS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AT ALL
TERMINALS WHICH WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY
WITH GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT INTO THE AFTERNOON.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...DIURNALLY FAVORED CONVECTION
POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON. BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THU/FRI WITH
INCREASED CHANCES OF RAIN AS A GULF COAST SYSTEM APPROACHES THE
AREA.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DH
AVIATION...96
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