126
FXUS62 KCAE 111045
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
645 AM EDT TUE AUG 11 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
RAIN CHANCES OVER THE WEEKEND HAVE DECREASED SLIGHTLY, BECOMING
A BIT MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED. AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED
FOR 12Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED DIURNAL STORMS POSSIBLE AGAIN
TODAY BEFORE BECOMING MORE SPOTTY DURING THE MIDWEEK. CHANCES
INCREASE AGAIN LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. A FEW
STRONG STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
- 2. INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED STARTING TODAY,
PEAKING LATE IN THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
- 1. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED DIURNAL STORMS POSSIBLE AGAIN
TODAY BEFORE BECOMING MORE SPOTTY DURING THE MIDWEEK. CHANCES
INCREASE AGAIN LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. A FEW
STRONG STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED DIURNAL STORMS
ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AS ROBUST HEATING AND DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOW TO MID 70S BRING SBCAPE VALUES UP AROUND 3000 J/KG.
THERE ACTUALLY MAY BE A BIT OF FORCING FROM A WEAK SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY ROUNDING THE LARGE RIDGE OUT WEST, LIKELY REACHING THE
MID- ATLANTIC BY THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. THIS FEATURE
LIKELY WILL NOT PROVIDE MUCH FORCING THIS FAR SOUTH BUT
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A SLIGHT ENHANCEMENT IN WIND
PROFILES WITH AROUND 20-25 KTS OF CLOUD LAYER SHEAR, ENOUGH FOR
THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG STORM OR TWO IF CONVECTION CAN GET
GOING. A FAIRLY SIMILAR SETUP IS SEEN WEDNESDAY AS THIS
NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME SHOULD AID IN ADVECTING ANOTHER WEAK
PERTURBATION INTO THE MID- ATLANTIC, THOUGH POP'S ARE A BIT
LOWER. IF THIS PERTURBATION SINKS A BIT FURTHER SOUTH, EXPECT
POP'S TO INCREASE SOME AND BRING HIGHER CHANCES FOR SCATTERED
CONVECTION. SLIGHT TROUGHING OVER THE NORTHEASTERN US COULD
ALLOW PIECES OF MID LEVEL ENERGY TO REACH THE FA FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY, WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO NEAR DURING
THE WINDOW AS WELL. THIS SHOULD BRING SCATTERED SHOWER/STORM
CHANCES EACH DAY, ESPECIALLY SATURDAY, THOUGH SOME UNCERTAINTY
IN THE FRONTS SOUTHERN EXTENT STILL EXISTS WITH GENEROUS SPREAD
REMAINING ACROSS LREF CLUSTER ANALYSIS.
OVERALL, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO THIS WEEKEND WHERE POCKETS OF
HEAVY RAINFALL AND A STRONG STORM OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
- 2. INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED STARTING TODAY,
PEAKING LATE IN THE WEEK.
TODAY IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN A PERIOD OF HOT/HUMID CONDITIONS
WITH TEMPERATURES 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. GRADUAL MID LEVEL
HEIGHT RISES AND WARMING 850MB TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK ARE
EXPECTED TO KEEP AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO
UPPER 90S, WITH LITTLE RELIEF OVERNIGHT AS LOWS STICK TO THE MID
TO UPPER 70S EACH NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY NIGHT. WHILE
DECENT MIXING IS SHOWN IN BUFKIT SOUNDINGS, SURFACE DEWPOINTS
SHOULD REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 70S EACH AFTERNOON, BRINGING
HEAT INDICES UP TO AROUND 105F TODAY AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE
PEAKING BETWEEN 105-108F THURSDAY, FRIDAY, AND POSSIBLY AGAIN
SATURDAY. LREF PROBABILITIES FOR HEAT INDICES GREATER THAN 105F
REMAIN AROUND 30-50% THURSDAY, BETWEEN 50-70% FRIDAY, AND THEN
LOWER SLIGHTLY TO 40-60% SATURDAY. THE EFI SIGNAL FOR MAX
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY HAS GOTTEN EVEN STRONGER AS WELL WITH VALUES
BETWEEN 0.80-0.95 NOW SEEN WITH A SHIFT-OF-TAILS OF 1 OVER
PORTIONS OF THE AREA, SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOMALOUS HEAT.
WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CHANCES FOR CONVECTION FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY, CONFIDENCE IN REACHING HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA IS A BIT
LOWER, BUT CANNOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL NEED FOR HEAT PRODUCTS
SOMETIME BETWEEN THURSDAY AND SATURDAY. UNCERTAINTY IN THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN BEYOND THIS WEEKEND EXISTS, BUT THERE IS LITTLE
EVIDENCE THAT HOT/HUMID CONDITIONS WILL WANE SO BE SURE TO TAKE
HEAT SAFETY PRECAUTIONS THROUGH THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
RELATIVELY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF
FORECAST PERIOD.
FEW-SCT HIGH LEVEL CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS WILL MOVE OVER THE
TERMINALS THIS MORNING WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS EITHER S/SW OR CALM.
WHILE IT CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT, THE THREAT FOR PREDAWN FOG OR
STRATUS THIS MORNING IS LOWER THAN PAST MORNINGS AND MOST GUIDANCE
KEEPS CONDITIONS VFR THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD. WINDS SHOULD PICK
UP FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST AFTER 15Z INCREASING TO 8 TO 10 KNOTS
AFTER 18Z. HAVE INTRODUCED VCSH THIS AFTERNOON TO COVER THE
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD-SCT -SHRA/-TSRA ONCE AGAIN. BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN
VSBY/CIG ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST SHOWERS OR STORMS, BUT
CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE AND TIMING IS TOO LOW TO PUT THUNDER IN THE
FORECAST RIGHT NOW. CONDITIONS IMPROVE LATE THIS EVENING AS ANY
LINGERING PRECIP DIMINISHES WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND
SURFACE WINDS RETURN TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A HOT AND DRIER WEATHER PATTERN
DEVELOPS THROUGH THE WEEK. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL BE LOW AND
RESTRICTIONS LIKELY MINIMAL AS HIGHS PUSH INTO THE UPPER 90S.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DH
AVIATION...EC
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