402
FXUS62 KCAE 110604
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
204 AM EDT SUN OCT 11 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE THIS MORNING, TAPERING OFF FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST TODAY. AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR
06Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MORNING, WITH SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE.
- 2. DRY, WARM WEATHER FAVORED FOR NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MORNING, WITH SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE.
A COLD FRONT REMAINS JUST TO THE WEST OF THE AREA MOVING THROUGH
EASTERN GEORGIA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH UPPER LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE TN VALLEY. WITH PWATS GREATER THAN 2 INCHES ACROSS THE
AREA, RAINFALL REMAINS EFFICIENT WITH SOME LINGERING INSTABILITY
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH STRONG WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WHICH HAS ACTUALLY ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO RISE A FEW
DEGREES OVERNIGHT. WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED
OVERNIGHT WITH OBSERVATIONS INDICATING HALF INCH TO INCH PER
HOUR RAIN RATES. AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE CLOSER, THE
FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE FURTHER LIMITING THE FLOODING THREAT.
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TODAY WITH SHOWERS TAPERING
OFF FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST WITH MUCH OF THE AREA COMPLETELY
DRY BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON OUTSIDE OF SOME POSSIBLE ISOLATED LIGHT
SHOWERS WITH THE UPPER LOW PUSHING INTO THE AREA. OVERALL, A
MUCH DRIER SUNDAY IS EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL.
KEY MESSAGE 2: DRY, WARM WEATHER FAVORED FOR NEXT WEEK
GLOBAL ENSEMBLES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
WILL BUILD OVER THE DEEP SOUTH FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK. PWAT
VALUES BELOW 1.5 INCHES AND NAEFS 500 MB HEIGHTS AT OR ABOVE
THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR THE TIME OF YEAR SUPPORTS DRY WEATHER
WITH RISING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK.
HIGHS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK (TUE - THU); APPROACHING RECORD HIGHS.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY
MORNING BEFORE GRADUALLY IMPROVING.
GENERALLY IFR CEILINGS ARE BEING NOTED AT THE TERMINALS A THE
START OF THE TAF PERIOD. EXPECT IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS TO CONTINUE
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH.
THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS IS MOVING INTO THE AREA AT THIS TIME
AND IS ANTICIPATED TO AFFECT THE TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS, LIKELY ENDING JUST PRIOR TO 12Z. SOUTHEAST WINDS FROM
5-10 KTS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO MORE SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF AN
INCOMING FRONT. PRIOR TO THE WIND SHIFT, SOME LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR REMAINS POSSIBLE, SO HAVE LEFT THAT IN THE TAF FOR THIS
ISSUANCE. AFTER THE FRONT PASSES, WINDS SHIFT SOUTHWESTERLY AND
BECOME BREEZY AS WIND GUSTS INCREASE TO THE 20-25 KT RANGE. THE
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE AFTER THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE AND
SHOULD BE VFR AROUND MIDDAY OR SO AND REMAIN THERE THE REST OF
TAF PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO IMPROVE INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR SCZ018-025-030-035-
041-135>137.
GA...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR GAZ040-063>065-077.
DISCUSSION...96
AVIATION...29
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