715
FXUS62 KCAE 061736
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
136 PM EDT THU AUG 6 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATE TO THE KEY MESSAGES. AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 18Z
TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. DIURNAL STRONG SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
DISCUSSION
- 1. DIURNAL STRONG SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
SHOWERS ARE STORMS ARE STARTING TO DEVELOP BOTH HERE AND IN THE
COASTAL PLAIN. THESE WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS, WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. STRONG STORMS
ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE TODAY AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS REVEAL A PROFILE
FAVORABLE FOR WET MICROBURSTS. THESE SHOULDN'T BE AS WIDESPREAD
AS THE CONVECTION THOUGH, BUT RAINFALL RATES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
HIGH AND LIGHTNING COPIOUS. BEYOND TODAY, UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY BUILD THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
90TH PERCENTILE HEIGHTS WILL FOSTER HIGHS CLIMBING BACK INTO THE
MID 90S, WHILE PWS IN THE 1.8-2.0" RANGE WILL CONTINUE TO FOSTER
DAILY CHANCES AT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE TYPICAL THREATS
WILL LIKELY BE ASSOCIATED WITH THESE, WITH STORM COVERAGE A BIT
LOWER THAN TODAY FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD.
AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
SHOWERS AND STORMS AROUND THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON CAUSING PERIODS OF RESTRICTIONS. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
WILL BE WIDESPREAD AND LIKELY IMPACT EACH TAF SITE BEFORE
WEAKENING LATER THIS EVENING. COMBINATION OF TEMPO AND PROB30
GROUPS COVER THIS POTENTIAL FOR ALL TAF SITES. WINDS OUTSIDE OF
CONVECTION WILL BE GUSTY AND VARIABLE WITH NUMEROUS OUTFLOWS
FROM THE CONVECTION. OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING, LOW STRATUS
IS LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE REGION ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE RAINFALL
EXPECTED THIS EVENING.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
THIS WEEK WITH EARLY MORNING RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...PL
AVIATION...42
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