765
FXUS62 KCAE 081146
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
646 AM EST MON DEC 8 2025
SYNOPSIS
PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING WITH RAIN MOVING INTO
THE REGION NEAR DAYBREAK. SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION INTO EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION. DRY CONDITIONS ARE THEN ANTICIPATED FOR THE MID TO LATE
WEEK PERIOD WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A
COLDER AIR MASS MAY MOVE IN FOR THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- SCATTERED SHOWERS CROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING
- STRONG COLD ADVECTION TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 20S.
AN UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE MS VALLEY WILL
CONTINUE EASTWARD CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
DRIVING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL
FLOW AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH IS YIELDING MOISTURE ADVECTION
INTO THE REGION AND PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE TO JUST UNDER 1
INCH BY 12Z. REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS AN AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING
ACROSS MS/AL WHICH SHOULD ARRIVE TO THE FORECAST AREA AROUND 12Z
AND MOVE THROUGH DURING THE 12Z-18Z TIME FRAME. OVERALL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE HIGH (GENERALLY A TENTH
OF AN INCH OR LESS). A COLD RAIN IS LIKELY WITH TEMPERATURES IN
THE 30S TO LOWER 40S BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE BOUNDARY
LAYER TEMPS MAY BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A FEW FLURRIES MIXING
IN ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS AND PEE DEE REGION NEAR THE
TAIL END OF THE RAIN AS IT IS MOVING OUT EARLY AFTERNOON BUT NO
IMPACTS WOULD BE EXPECTED.
DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN WORKING INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON IN
THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH BUT WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND
COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE PASSING FRONT LIKELY TO KEEP HIGH
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL AND STRUGGLING THROUGH THE 40S.
SKIES WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR OUT THIS EVENING BUT SHOULD
EVENTUALLY CLEAR FROM THE NORTH AND THIS COMBINED WITH STRONG
COLD ADVECTION WILL SUPPORT LOWS TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- DRIER AND CONTINUED COOL ON TUESDAY.
- WARMER BUT ALSO BREEZY AT TIMES ON WEDNESDAY.
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT: THE DAY BEGINS WITH LINGERING LOW
CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME PATCHY FOG ALONG WITH WIDESPREAD
SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS OVERHEAD ON
TUESDAY PROVIDING PLENTY OF SUNSHINE BUT WITH STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION IN PLACE, TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO WARM WITH
FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. WINDS SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHWEST AT NIGHT AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS SOUTH
TOWARDS FLORIDA. THIS SHOULD OFFSET COOLING SOMEWHAT BUT MOST
LOCATIONS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE NEAR OR BELOW THE FREEZING MARK
WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT: A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
MOVE OUT OF THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS, PASSING NORTH OF THE FA
AT NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE, A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM THE
GREAT LAKES REGION INTO NEW ENGLAND BUT THE FORECAST IN OUR
REGION REMAINS DRY THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH.
SOUTHWEST FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN A WARMER DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 50S BUT IT WILL ALSO BE BREEZY AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY
IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH APPROACHES. WIND
GUSTS COULD APPROACH LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR A FEW
HOURS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MIDLANDS. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN
ELEVATED AT NIGHT LIMITING COOLING SOMEWHAT WITH LOWS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 30S.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- CONTINUED DRY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES.
- A DRY COLD FRONT USHERS IN ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS FOR THE
WEEKEND.
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL SLOWLY LIFT DURING THE EXTENDED KEEPING
THE STORM TRACK TO THE NORTH. THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. AT THE
SURFACE, SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PROMOTE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A DRY COLD
FRONT COULD CROSS THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT SHIFTING
WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST AND USHERING IN A COLDER AND DRIER AIR
MASS FOR THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
WIDESPREAD STRATUS ACROSS THE AREA WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
IFR/MVFR RESTRICTIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE SUPPORTING IFR CIGS ALL
TERMINALS THOUGH THERE IS A BIT OF WIND WHICH IS HELPING TO KEEP
VSBYS UP A BIT. SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE REGION THIS
MORNING SO INCLUDED A TEMPO TO LOWER VSBYS IN RAIN GENERALLY IN
THE 12Z-16Z TIME FRAME. AS THE RAIN MOVES OUT WITH THE PASSING
TROUGH, COLD DRY ADVECTION IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT BUT LOW
CLOUDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH
IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS, STAYING IFR OR POSSIBLY MVFR. GENERALLY
NORTHERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WIND THROUGH THE PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT AVIATION RESTRICTIONS
EXPECTED. BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
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