355
FXUS62 KCAE 151803
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
203 PM EDT MON JUN 15 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN RETURNS THROUGH THE WEEK. AVIATION
DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 18Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. AFTER A DRY MONDAY, UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE REST
OF THE WORK WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: AFTER A DRY MONDAY, UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS
FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK.
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTHWARD TODAY, BRINGING DRIER
AND COOLER CONDITIONS TO THE REGION COMPARED TO THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, NOTICEABLY LESS HUMID AIR HAS
FILTERED IN WITH DEWPOINTS THIS AFTERNOON MIXING OUT INTO THE
LOWER 60S. EVEN COOLER THICKNESS WILL PUSH IN FROM THE NORTH,
AND COMBINED WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER, DAYTIME HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE ~5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR TOMORROW.
AFTER TODAY, UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST AND MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES MOVE OVER THE REGION. THIS
PATTERN WILL HELP EXPAND SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE INTO
THE FA, PARTICULARLY AS A WEAK SURFACE LOW ATTEMPTS TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY TUESDAY MORNING. THE LATEST GUIDANCE
TRENDS KEEP THE HIGHEST IVT TRANSFER AND PWATS GENERALLY REMAIN
SOUTH OF THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK, KEEPING THE HIGHEST POPS
IN THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AND LOCATIONS
SOUTH. PERIODS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS A SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN RETURNS.
INSTABILITY APPEARS RELATIVELY WEAK, SO WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME, BUT GIVEN THE TIME OF
YEAR, A STRONG STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS.
LOOKING FURTHER, MOST DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE REMAIN IN GOOD
AGREEMENT REGARDING A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVING INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST WHILE A WEAK TROPICAL DISTURBANCE DRIFTS ACROSS
THE WESTERN GULF. THE ASSOCIATED LOW IS EXPECTED TO LIFT INTO
THE NORTHEAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY, HELPING TO MAINTAIN A STALLED
FRONT ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. TEMPERATURES SHOULD GRADUALLY WARM
BACK TO NEAR-NORMAL BY MIDWEEK, WHILE INCREASED MOISTURE CHANCES
RETURN AFTER THURSDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES LATE IN
THE WEEK AS MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE LOW
IN THE GULF AS IT TRACKS INLAND ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO DEPICT A STRONGER AND
SLOWER- MOVING SYSTEM, WHILE THE GFS REMAINS FASTER WITH THE
WAVE REACHING THE AREA BY THURSDAY. REGARDLESS, INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES APPEAR LIKELY LATE IN THE WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL
PULL MOISTURE FROM THE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH AND EAST. A HEAVY
RAINFALL THREAT AND ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER COULD BE POSSIBLE,
BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW FOR GREATER DETAIL AT THIS TIME.
BY THE WEEKEND, DRIER AIR SHOULD RETURN AS THE UPPER TROUGH
SHIFTS EASTWARD.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY EXPECTED.
DRIER AIR HAS MOVED OVER THE TERMINALS AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION. THIS WILL LIMIT ANY CONVECTION AT THE
TERMINALS WITH JUST SOME SCATTERED CUMULUS CONTINUING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE WEST WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, BECOMING MOSTLY
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT. EXPECT MOISTURE TO SLOWLY RETURN
TOMORROW WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS FAVORING THE SOUTHERNMOST
TERMINALS, ALTHOUGH MODELS SHOW RELATIVELY HIGH CONFIDENCE OF
CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS. HIGHEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL BE AFTER 18Z SO HAVE LEFT OUT THE MENTION OF TSRA.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...DIURNALLY FAVORED CONVECTION
POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON MID WEEK WITH POSSIBLE MORNING
FOG/STRATUS BRINGING RESTRICTIONS. BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THU/FRI.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ND
AVIATION...96
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