897
FXUS62 KCAE 191751
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
151 PM EDT WED AUG 19 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 18Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. INCREASING CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: INCREASING CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW AT LEAST IN THE NORTH
AND WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST, POOLING AHEAD OF A WEAK
BOUNDARY WITH PWATS AROUND 2 INCHES GENERALLY SOUTH OF I-20. WHILE
ISOLATED STORMS REMAINS POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTH AND EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON, CONVECTION WILL ONCE AGAIN BE LIMITED.
LATEST HREF INDICATES MOISTURE WILL MARGINALLY INCREASE THURSDAY
WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR ISOLATED AFTERNOON STORMS. THEN GLOBAL
ENSEMBLES FAVOR A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS
A SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS FAVORS DEEP SW
FLOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH A SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPING ALONG A BAROCLINIC ZONE NEAR THE FORECAST AREA. ENHANCED
SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND INCREASING PWAT VALUES TO NEAR OR ABOVE 2
INCHES FAVORS WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. WITH HIGHER THAN NORMAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR THE SEASON,
AND A CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS, ORGANIZED STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND HEIGHT FALLS COULD SUPPORT DAMAGING
WINDS AND SMALL HAIL ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN
MIDLANDS WHERE MOISTURE WILL BE DEEPER. AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS
SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY, PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF
FROM WEST TO EAST WITH DRIER MOVING INTO THE AREA.
OTHERWISE, IT WILL BE WARMER THAN NORMAL TODAY AND THURSDAY BUT WITH
DRIER AIR OVER THE REGION AND WEAKER RIDGING NO HEAT THRESHOLDS
SHOULD BE MET. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH
AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY BUT ANY DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL BE
ISOLATED AS TYPICAL FOR THE SEASON. COOLER WEATHER IS LIKELY NEXT
WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY EXPECTED TROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THERE
IS A LOW CHANCE FOR PATCHY FOG/STRATUS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
WINDS REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE BEHIND THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON AS A SCT CUMULUS DECK HAS DEVELOPED.
THERE REMAINS THE CHANCE A ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM DEVELOPS IN
THE COMING HOURS, BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW IN IMPACTS AT ANY
ONE TERMINAL TO ADD MENTION OF THIS IN THE TAF. TONIGHT LIGHT
AND VARIABLE TO CALM WINDS CONTINUE WITH FEW PASSING CIRRUS
EXPECTED. LIGHT LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE SOUTHEASTERLY COULD
BRING HIGHER MOISTURE INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING, THUS
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND THE LATEST HRRR RUNS DEPICT THE POTENTIAL
FOR PATCHY FOG. CONFIDENCE IN RESTRICTIONS AT THE TERMINALS IS
LOW AT THE MOMENT, BUT OGB WOULD HAVE THE BEST CHANCE AS SEEN IN
LAMP/NBM GUIDANCE. CONTINUING THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON THURSDAY, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY LIGHT, BUT NOW
OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH. GREATER COVERAGE OF CONVECTION IS
POSSIBLE JUST AFTER THIS TAF PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING BUT RAIN CHANCES
INCREASE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION EXPECTED.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...96
AVIATION...DH
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