939
FXUS62 KCAE 071817
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
217 PM EDT MON SEP 7 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
DRIER AIR IS LIKELY FOR TODAY AND TOMORROW, LEADING TO LOWER DEW
POINTS AND LIMITING PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE CSRA. AVIATION
DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WITH CHANCES FOR
AFTERNOON STORMS THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1. SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WITH CHANCES FOR
AFTERNOON STORMS THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
A COLD FRONT HAS SLIPPED SOUTH OF THE AREA USHERING IN DRIER AIR
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S ACROSS THE AREA AND PWATS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH THE DAY WITH NORTHEASTERLY FLOW.
BROAD TROUGHING IN PLACE WILL LEAD TO A COOLER AFTERNOON TODAY,
ALTHOUGH WITH THE TROUGH AXIS ALREADY TO THE EAST CONTINUING TO
PUSH AWAY FROM THE AREA, EXPECT RELATIVELY QUICK RECOVERY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND STRENGTHENING RIDGING ALOFT OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS MOVING BACK INTO THE AREA. WHILE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
DOES NOT INDICATE THIS RIDGE WILL BE NEARLY AS STRONG AS LAST
WEEK, EXPECT A WARMING TREND MOST NOTABLE FOR THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH BLENDED GUIDANCE FAVORING
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S, AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. THIS COUPLED WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL LIKELY PUSH HEAT INDICES UP TOWARDS THE TRIPLE DIGITS ONCE
AGAIN.
MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED TODAY AND TOMORROW WITH FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATING A RELATIVELY STRONG WARM NOSE ALOFT,
KEEPING MUCH OF THE AREA CAPPED, PREVENTING SHOWERS AND STORMS
FROM DEVELOPING OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. WHILE AN ISOLATED SHOWER
OR STORM WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERNMOST PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA, GENERALLY DO NOT EXPECT A SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE
INCREASE UNTIL WEDNESDAY WHEN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OFFSHORE AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF IS PICKED UP BY
THE DEVELOPING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME
DIURNAL STORM CHANCES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, FAVORING THE
SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA BUT IT IS NOT UNTIL A WEAK FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST LEAD TO HIGHER PRECIP CHANCES
FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
MOSTLY VFR TODAY AS DRIER AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS BKN TO SCT CUMULUS WITH BASES AROUND 3-5
KFT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. ISOLATED POP-UP SHOWERS ARE SEEN TO
OUR SOUTH AND WEST, BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW TO MENTION
ANY IMPACTS AT OUR CSRA TERMINALS. NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY
WINDS CONTINUE AROUND 10 KT, WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS NEAR 15 KT.
GIVEN THE NOTICEABLY DRIER AIR AND STRONGER WINDS JUST ABOVE THE
SURFACE, FOG OR LOW STRATUS IS NOT ANTICIPATED, WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED ASIDE FROM SOME PASSING HIGH CIRRUS
TONIGHT. TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO TODAY,
WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE
NORTHEAST TO EAST AT 7-10 KT WITH LOW END GUSTS NEAR 15 KT.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...DRY TO START THE WEEK BEFORE DIURNAL
STORM CHANCES RETURN IN THE LATER PART OF THE WEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...96
AVIATION...ND
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page