263
FXUS62 KCAE 301031
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
631 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR THE 12Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. TEMPERATURES WARM THROUGH THE WEEK, PEAKING DURING THE
INDEPENDENCE DAY WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: TEMPERATURES WARM THROUGH THE WEEK, PEAKING
DURING THE INDEPENDENCE DAY WEEKEND.
A STRONG UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE TN VALLEY AND LOWER MS
VALLEY WILL MIGRATE SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE OH VALLEY BY
MID-WEEK AND THEN BECOME CENTERED OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC BY THE
END OF THE WEEK. THIS 500MB HIGH IS ANOMALOUSLY STRONG WITH
HEIGHTS AT OR ABOVE THE 99TH PERCENTILE RELATIVE TO CLIMATOLOGY.
AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS CLOSER TO THE REGION, TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE WARMING FURTHER WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND
100 DEGREES FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. ENSEMBLES INDICATE HIGHLY
ANOMALOUS 850MB TEMPERATURES OVER THE 90TH PERCENTILE AND ECMWF
EFI ALSO SHOWING ANOMALOUS SIGNALS IN THE MAX TEMPERATURE FIELD.
ENSEMBLES INDICATE LOWERING ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE THROUGH MID TO
LATE WEEK, WITH PWATS FALLING BELOW 50 PERCENT OF NORMAL,
SUPPORTING A GENERALLY DRY FORECAST WHEN COMBINED WITH THE
STRONG SUBSIDENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE. THIS SHOULD ALSO RESULT IN
BETTER DEEP MIXING AND LOWER DEWPOINTS AND THEREFORE LOWER HEAT
INDICES MID TO LATE WEEK DESPITE THE INCREASING TEMPERATURES.
MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND AND LIKELY WILL
YIELD HEAT INDICES NEAR HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. REGARDLESS,
THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE WEEK AND FORECAST PERIOD ANYONE SPENDING A
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF TIME OUTSIDE SHOULD TAKE NECESSARY
PRECAUTIONS TO HANDLE THE HEAT AND STAY HYDRATED. BE SURE TO
MAKE HEAT SAFETY PREPARATIONS NOW AND HAVE A PLAN TO MONITOR
CHILDREN, THE ELDERLY, PETS, AND ANYONE WITHOUT ADEQUATE INDOOR
COOLING.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
SOME TYPICAL MORNING MIFG IS POSSIBLE PRIMARILY AT CAE AND AGS
BUT WITH LITTLE-NO IMPACT ON RESTRICTIONS THROUGH 13Z. LIGHT
WINDS WILL MAKE WAY FOR NORTHEASTERLY WINDS BY MID- MORNING,
6-10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 15 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. CHANCES
FOR ANY PRECIP ARE NOTABLY LOWER TODAY, SO NO MENTIONS IN THE
TAF.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS LESS LIKELY
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS RIDGING BUILDS OVERHEAD. BRIEF
EARLY MORNING RESTRICTIONS ALSO POSSIBLE THIS WEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...7
AVIATION...42
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