835
FXUS62 KCAE 260123
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
923 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED CURRENT CONDITIONS. AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 00Z
TAF ISSUANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. DAILY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEK, WITH LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE THROUGH
TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: DAILY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE
INTO THE UPCOMING WEEK, WITH LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE
THROUGH TUESDAY.
TONIGHT: ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN
POSSIBLE THROUGH MIDNIGHT. THERE THEN LOOKS TO BE A BIT OF A
BREAK IN THE ACTION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. THE MAIN HAZARD WITH THESE EVENING STORMS REMAINS THE
POTENTIAL FOR BOUTS OF HEAVY RAINFALL THAT MAY LEAD TO ISOLATED
FLASH FLOODING.
THE OVERALL FORECAST HASN'T CHANGED TOO MUCH. SOUTHWEST FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT LEAST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK
WITH THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN FAVORING RIDGING OFFSHORE AND AN
UPPER LOW OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. NAEFS MEAN
INDICATES PWATS REMAIN AROUND OR ABOVE THE 99TH PERCENTILE
THROUGH TUESDAY, GENERALLY AROUND 2". HEAVY RAIN AND ISOLATED
FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH AFTERNOON CONVECTION TODAY
AND TUESDAY. HOWEVER, A STRONG TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH FROM THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST STRENGTHENS THE RIDGING OVER OUR AREA WHICH
WOULD LIMIT FORCING, PARTICULARLY ON TUESDAY, LIMITING THE FLASH
FLOOD THREAT FOR THAT DAY COMPARED TO PREVIOUS FORECASTS. WITH
MOISTURE SO HIGH AND MODERATE DESTABILIZATION EACH AFTERNOON,
SCATTERED STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP. STORM COVERAGE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK MAY BE A BIT MORE LIMITED
AS SOUTHWEST FLOW WEAKENS BUT ISOLATED DIURNAL SHOWERS AND
STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE. A FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA NEXT
WEEKEND WITH EC EFI SIGNALING BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR THE
WEEKEND WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASING.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH
RESTRICTIONS DEVELOPING TONIGHT.
STORM COVERAGE SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. HOWEVER, ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS AT THE
TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL
LEADING TO REDUCED VSBYS AND LOWER CIGS. OUTSIDE OF PERIODIC
RESTRICTIONS IN PRECIPITATION, LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT
LOWERING CEILINGS TONIGHT WITH HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN MVFR BUT
POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS AS WELL. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
LIKELY ONCE AGAIN TOMORROW, ALTHOUGH THE MOST LIKELY TIMING WILL
BE AFTER 18Z, THOUGH SOME EARLIER CONVECTION MAY OCCUR NEAR
AGS/DNL. OUTSIDE OF SOME GUSTY THUNDERSTORM WINDS, SURFACE
WINDSPEEDS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KTS OUR OF THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
BRING MORNING RESTRICTIONS FROM FOG AND/OR LOW CLOUDS.
SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE EACH DAY.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...EC/96
AVIATION...EC
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