786
FXUS62 KCAE 151754
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
154 PM EDT WED JUL 15 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
TEMPERATURES TRENDING WARMER TO END THE WEEK ABOVE NORMAL WITH
INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN OVER THE WEEKEND. AVIATION
DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 18Z TAF.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. GENERALLY LOW CHANCES OF RAIN THROUGH FRIDAY FAVORING THE
CSRA WITH A WARMING TREND EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA.
- 2. INCREASED CHANCES OF RAIN OVER THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHEST
CHANCES ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: GENERALLY LOW CHANCES OF RAIN THROUGH FRIDAY
FAVORING THE CSRA WITH A WARMING TREND EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA.
MUCH DRIER AIR NOTED ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA ON WV IMAGERY AND
SEEN IN SATELLITE DERIVED PWATS WITH VALUES AT OR BELOW 1 INCH
OVER MUCH OF NC. A SHARP GRADIENT TO VALUES TO OVER 2 INCHES
NOTED OVER SOUTH CAROLINA ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE I-26 CORRIDOR.
SOME CONVECTION ALREADY ONGOING IN THE CSRA ALONG A WEAK LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE BUT REALLY STRUGGLING BENEATH THE UPPER
RIDGE. EXPECT SCATTERED NON SEVERE CONVECTION INTO THE EVENING.
SLOW STORM MOVEMENT WITH HIGH PWATS COULD YIELD VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL IN STRONGER CONVECTION. SIMILAR EXPECTATIONS FOR
TOMORROW REGARDING CONVECTION ALTHOUGH COVERAGE MAY BE EVEN LESS
AS SOME OF THE DRIER AIR TO OUR NORTH WORKS SOUTHWARD.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS THE
UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO
THE CAROLINAS. NAEFS SHOWS 850MB TEMPERATURES ABOVE THE 99TH
PERCENTILE BOTH DAYS WHILE THE ECMWF ALSO HIGHLIGHTS ANOMALOUSLY
HIGH MAX TEMPS TO END THE WEEK. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO
PUSH BACK INTO THE MID AND UPPER 90S WITH FRIDAY BEING THE
WARMEST DAY. WHILE DEEP MIXING SHOULD RESULT IN SOME DRIER AIR
MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE, HEAT INDICES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE
BACK ABOVE 100 DEGREES AND COULD REACH 105 BY FRIDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2: INCREASED CHANCES OF RAIN OVER THE WEEKEND WITH
HIGHEST CHANCES ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE UPPER RIDGE WILL RETROGRADE AND
BECOME RE-ESTABLISHED OVER THE WESTERN CONUS BY SATURDAY WITH AN
UPPER WEAKNESS LEFT BEHIND ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND
NORTHEASTERN GULF. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR TROUGHING ACROSS THE OH
VALLEY INTO MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND BRINGING SHORTWAVE
ENERGY INTO THE REGION INTERACTING WITH ABOVE NORMAL PWATS
RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN CHANCES OF CONVECTION LATE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THERE MAY BE A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER ON
SUNDAY AS WELL WITH SOME INCREASED WIND SHEAR AND UPPER FORCING
FROM SHORTWAVE ENERGY COMBINING WITH DIURNAL INSTABILITY. ALSO
OF NOTE, NHC HAS ADDED A 20% AREA ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN GULF
FOR POSSIBLE TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS AROUND AUGUSTA, OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THE SLOW MOVING, SOUTHWARD SINKING BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO SHIFT
THROUGH OUR AREA CAUSING A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE
SAVANNAH RIVER WESTWARD THIS AFTERNOON. THIS MAY BRING A FEW
STORMS INTO AGS AND DNL THIS AFTERNOON, WITH ENOUGH CONFIDENCE
IN TERMINAL IMPACTS FOR A PROB30. THE REMAINING TAF SITES WILL
LIKELY REMAIN CONVECTION FREE. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN OVERNIGHT
WITH CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. SOME MORNING STRATUS-FOG IS
POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING BUT CONFIDENCE IS QUITE LOW WITH A
LACK OF MODEL AGREEMENT. THIS PATTERN CONTINUES THURSDAY, BUT
WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER RAIN CHANCES AT AGS AND DNL.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THE THREAT FOR RESTRICTIONS EASES
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS CONDITIONS
BEGIN TO DRY OUT. RESTRICTIONS FROM SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
RETURN THIS WEEKEND.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...23
AVIATION...42
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