636
FXUS62 KCAE 311754
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
154 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN HOT, HUMID CONDITIONS WITH
HEAT INDICES OVER 100F THIS WEEK. AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED
FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. GENERALLY DRY WEATHER AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES OVER 100F BECOMING MORE LIKELY
THIS WEEK.
- 2. ACTIVE WEATHER AND DECREASING TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE NEXT
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1. GENERALLY DRY WEATHER AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES OVER 100F BECOMING
MORE LIKELY THIS WEEK.
A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS CURRENTLY BUILDING OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS. BOTH DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUE
TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS RIDGE SLIDES OVER THE EASTERN
SEABOARD THROUGH MID TO LATE WEEK. THE NAEFS ENSEMBLE INDICATES
THE 500 MB HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR THE CLIMATOLOGICAL
MAX TOMORROW INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE DROPPING SLIGHTLY TO END THE
WEEK. WITH THE RIDGE OVERHEAD, GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK. THE BIGGER
STORY IS GOING TO BE THE HEAT. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
GRADUALLY INCREASE EACH DAY TO THE UPPER 90S FOR MID TO LATE
WEEK. WHEN FACTORING IN HUMIDITY, HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE LIKELY
TO EXCEED 100F, POTENTIALLY AS SOON AS TOMORROW, IN THE
AFTERNOONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THERE IS POTENTIAL WE
APPROACH HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA LATE IN THE WEEK, BUT THAT WILL
LARGELY BE DEPENDENT ON HOW WELL THE ATMOSPHERE MIXES OUT EACH
DAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2. ACTIVE WEATHER AND DECREASING TEMPERATURES
POSSIBLE NEXT WEEKEND.
GLOBAL ENSEMBLES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE RIDGE OVERHEAD
LATE IN THE WEEK RETROGRADES WESTWARD, ALLOWING FOR A TROUGH TO
SLIDE DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD. AS IT DOES, CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TO INCREASE AT THE END OF THE
WORKWEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. COOLER AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE FORECAST
FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND AS WELL.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY EXPECTED EXCEPT POSSIBLE EARLY MORNING
FOG/STRATUS.
UPPER RIDGING CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN ALOFT WITH EASTERLY
SURFACE FLOW KEEPING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE RESULTING IN
GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS. SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE
MAINLY FAVORING THE EASTERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA BUT THINK COVERAGE
WILL BE LIMITED ENOUGH TO NOT MENTION IN FORECAST. EASTERLY
WINDS AROUND 5 TO 7 KNOTS SHOULD SUBSIDE WITH SUNSET TO LIGHT
AND VARIABLE OR CALM OVERNIGHT.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH THE INVERSION AND DRIER AIR
ALOFT MAY AGAIN SUPPORT FOG/STRATUS FORMATION, WITH FOG MORE
FAVORED GIVEN CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS.
GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING OGB/AGS MOST FAVORED FOR RESTRICTIONS AND
HAVE INCLUDED PREVAILING MVFR VSBYS STARTING 08Z WITH TEMPO TO
LOWER RESTRICTIONS 08Z-12Z TIME FRAME. ALSO INCLUDED A TEMPO
GROUP FOR MVFR VSBYS ELSEWHERE ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOWER. ANY
RESTRICTIONS SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 13Z WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS EVENTUALLY PICKING UP AN EASTERLY DIRECTION AROUND 5 KNOTS
OR SO WITH FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS DEVELOPING.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...EARLY MORNING RESTRICTIONS STILL
POSSIBLE DESPITE A DRIER OUTLOOK FOR THE WEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...29
AVIATION...23
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