396
FXUS62 KCAE 240010
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
810 PM EDT TUE JUN 23 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
REMOVED WORDING FOR THIS AFTERNOON. AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED
FOR 00Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN EXPECTED THIS WEEK, WITH
INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN EXPECTED THIS
WEEK, WITH INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY THIS WEEKEND.
DEW POINTS TOWARD THE MID TO UPPER 50S CAN BE SEEN NOW INTO THE
UPSTATE AND INTO NC AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WORK
THROUGH THE REGION. THIS DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
WORKING IN TONIGHT, ENDING ANY SPOTTY SHOWER CHANCE.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER
60S.
BRIEF DRYING IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AS NORTHWEST FLOW BRINGS IN
COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER. BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK, A WEAKNESS
DEVELOPING IN THE UPPER TROUGH SPLITS THE RIDGE OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST AND WESTERN ATLANTIC, SUPPORTING A RETURN OF DIURNAL
CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO TREND UPWARD INTO THIS WEEKEND,
AS RIDGING RESTRENGTHENS AND DOMINATES ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE 90S WITH SOME GLOBAL
MODELS HINTING AT UPPER 90S EARLY NEXT WEEK. HEAT INDICES COULD ALSO
SURPASS THE 100 DEGREE MARK. WHILE DETAILS REMAIN UNCERTAIN, HEAT
HEADLINES MAY BECOME NECESSARY THIS WEEKEND FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA
DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH AFTERNOON MIXING OCCURS.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
EARLY EVENING CONVECTION ALONG A SOUTHWARD SINKING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY REMAINS NORTHEAST OF THE TERMINALS BUT EXPECT BROKEN
CLOUDS AROUND 5KFT AT CAE/CUB EARLY IN THE PERIOD AS THE
BOUNDARY SINKS SOUTHWARD. WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 8 TO 10 KNOTS TO
START THE FORECAST SHOULD SHIFT MORE NORTHERLY BEHIND THE FRONT.
WINDS CONTINUE TO SHIFT MORE NORTHEASTERLY AFTER 12Z AROUND 8 TO
10 KNOTS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED ALTHOUGH SOME HIGHER
CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN LATER IN THE DAY ALONG WITH SOME SCATTERED
CUMULUS POSSIBLE DESPITE A DRIER AIR MASS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY
THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND SHOULD YIELD DAILY DIURNAL CONVECTION
AND POSSIBLE ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...7/DH
AVIATION...23
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