450
FXUS62 KCAE 040015
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
815 PM EDT WED JUN 3 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 00Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY KICK OFF A WARMING TREND
INTO THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY KICK OFF A
WARMING TREND INTO THIS WEEKEND.
THE ATMOSPHERE HAS COOLED AND DRIED OUT CONSIDERABLY BEHIND A COLD
FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH WHICH MOVED THROUGH LAST NIGHT. TEMPERATURES
TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN A BIT COOLER THAN NORMAL, IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOW 80S WITH OCCASIONAL NORTHEASTERLY BREEZINESS. A STRONG
AND BROAD UPPER RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL START BUILDING
OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD INTO THURSDAY, REMAINING IN PLACE THROUGH
AT LEAST THE START OF THIS WEEKEND. THIS SETUP WILL SHUNT DEEP
MOISTURE AWAY FROM THE AREA, KEEPING PWAT VALUES UNDER 70% OF NORMAL
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. NBM INTERQUARTILE RANGES FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES REMAIN SMALL THROUGH SATURDAY AS WELL, WITH VALUES
WARMING TO NEAR NORMAL BY FRIDAY AND HOLDING THERE FOR SATURDAY AND
POTENTIALLY SUNDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE THEN DECREASES A BIT INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SOME INDICATION IN ENSEMBLE AND GLOBAL GUIDANCE
THAT WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH MAY ALLOW FOR MOISTURE
TO RETURN TO THE REGION. THIS BRINGS AT LEAST LOW END RAIN CHANCES
BACK INTO THE CONVERSATION FOR MONDAY.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT.
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS OF 3-7 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY
AFTERNOON, BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN LATE IN THE TAF
PERIOD. WHILE UNLIKELY, WILL MONITOR FOR RIVER FOG POTENTIALLY
IMPACTING OGB AND AGS TOWARDS DAYBREAK.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO HANG ON
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...EC
AVIATION...7
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