536
FXUS62 KCAE 091019
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
619 AM EDT WED SEP 9 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY. RAIN CHANCES
INCREASE THURSDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY. RAIN CHANCES
INCREASE THURSDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES MOVING OFFSHORE TODAY, WHICH
WILL COMBINE WITH STRENGTHENING UPPER RIDGING TO PRODUCE
GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY. FORTUNATELY IT LOOKS
LIKE MOST, IF NOT ALL, OF OUR CWA SHOULD SEE ANOTHER DRY DAY
WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. TEMPERATURES
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY SHOULD WARM INTO THE LOWER TO MID 90S.
INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL LIKELY PUSH HEAT INDEX VALUES
ABOVE 100 DEGREES DURING PEAK HEATING BUT STILL BELOW HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA. MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY RETURN TO THE REGION,
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES DURING THE LATE WEEK PERIOD. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY, ALTHOUGH
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE CONTINUED CAPPING ALOFT WHICH MAY
RESTRICT CONVECTION TO THE COASTAL PLAIN, SPARING MUCH OF OUR
FA. THIS CHANGES FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND WHEN A WEAKNESS IN
THE RIDGE AND HIGHER PWATS FAVOR MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION,
THOUGH THE SEVERE THREAT APPEARS LOW AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE 24HR FORECAST
PERIOD ALTHOUGH PREDAWN FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE THURSDAY.
UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO EXPAND EAST INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES WITH A DRIER AIR MASS IN PLACE. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING
ONLY SOME THIN HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA ALTHOUGH SOME STRATUS
HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA. THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL
SHIFT MORE OFFSHORE TODAY ALLOWING FOR EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE
ATLANTIC WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT SCT-BKN STRATOCUMULUS FAVORING
OGB/AGS/DNL, ALTHOUGH CIGS EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR. CANNOT RULE
OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER LATE AFTERNOON BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT
THIS TIME SO WILL NOT INCLUDE IN THIS FORECAST. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS SHOULD PICK UP FROM THE EAST AROUND 7 TO 10 KNOTS
BY 15Z THEN DIMINISH AGAIN AROUND SUNSET. SOME MIXED SIGNALS IN
HI-RES GUIDANCE FOR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD HINTING AT
SOME FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT AFTER 08Z. DID NOT INCLUDE
RESTRICTIONS WITH THIS FORECAST BUT IF THE TRENDS CONTINUE LATER
FORECASTS MAY NEED TO INCLUDE RESTRICTIONS EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...DIURNAL STORM CHANCES RETURN IN THE
LATER PART OF THE WEEK AND INCREASING CHANCES OF MORNING
FOG/STRATUS CONCERNS WITH INCREASING ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...7
AVIATION...23
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page