522
FXUS62 KCAE 091818
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
218 PM EDT WED SEP 9 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
RIDGING TRENDING STRONGER LEADING TO INCREASE CONFIDENCE OF
CONTINUED ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. AVIATION DISCUSSION
UPDATED FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES MOVING OFFSHORE TODAY, WHICH
WILL COMBINE WITH STRENGTHENING UPPER RIDGING TO LEAD TO
CONTINUED ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES
TO TREND TOWARDS STRONGER OFFSHORE RIDGING WITH LITTLE SIGN OF
BREAKING DOWN LEADING TO INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN CONTINUED
RELATIVELY HOT TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE LOCATION
OF THE RIDGE WILL SUPPORT INCREASING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WITH
MAJORITY OF GEFS AND EC ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INCREASING PWATS TO
ABOVE 2 INCHES FRIDAY THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA. THIS INCREASED
MOISTURE WILL LIKELY PUSH DEW POINTS BACK INTO THE 70S SO WHILE
BLENDED GUIDANCE FAVORS HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S, HEAT
INDICES WILL LIKELY TOP OUT NEAR THE TRIPLE DIGITS. WHILE THERE
WILL LIKELY BE SOME FORCING FROM WEAK SHORTWAVES PUSHING THROUGH
WEAKNESSES IN THE RIDGE, WIDESPREAD FORCING REMAINS UNLIKELY SO
SHOWER AND STORM COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR AFTERNOON AND
EVENINGS, REMAINING ISOLATED THURSDAY THEN SCATTERED EACH DAY
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS GENERALLY
NOT EXPECTED WITH BIGGEST THREATS BEING LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
PREDAWN FOG/STRATUS THURSDAY MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND A RELATIVELY DRIER
AIR MASS HAVE RESULTED IN SCATTERED CUMULUS THIS AFTERNOON. A
FEW POP-UP SHOWERS ARE BEING SEEN TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST,
HOWEVER, NO ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED NEAR OUR TERMINALS. WINDS OF
7-10 KNOTS, WITH A FEW LOW-END GUSTS, WILL DIMINISH TO LIGHT AND
VARIABLE SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.
THERE ARE SOME MIXED SIGNALS IN THE HI-RES GUIDANCE REGARDING
THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT AS MOISTURE
INCREASES, PARTICULARLY AFTER 08Z. FOR NOW, TEMPOS WERE
INCLUDED FOR IFR/MVFR RESTRICTIONS BETWEEN 09-13Z THURSDAY
MORNING AT ALL SITES. ANY RESTRICTIONS SHOULD LIFT AFTER 15Z,
WITH SOUTH WINDS INCREASING TO 5-7 KNOTS. DIURNAL CONVECTION
CHANCES RETURN THURSDAY, BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW FOR ANY
INCLUSION AT THIS TIME.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...DIURNAL STORM CHANCES RETURN IN THE
LATER PART OF THE WEEK AND INCREASING CHANCES OF MORNING
FOG/STRATUS CONCERNS WITH INCREASING ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...96
AVIATION...ND
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