740
FXUS62 KCAE 130603
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
203 AM EDT SAT AUG 13 2022
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO OVERTAKE THE
REGION TODAY AND SUNDAY. EARLY NEXT WEEK THE NEXT FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION ALONG WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
EARLY THIS MORNING: MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
SUNRISE. LINGERING CLOUD COVER EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
MIDLANDS AND THE CSRA. MORNING LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S
IN THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS TO AROUND 70 IN THE CSRA.
TODAY AND TONIGHT: MAIN COLD FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE CWA
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE WILL STILL BE SOME LINGERING LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE TO START OFF THE DAY OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA
DUE TO A WEAK ONSHORE FLOW. THESE WILL MIX OUT BY LATE MORNING,
ALLOWING FOR A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE. TEMPERATURES RISE INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 80S, BUT WITH A DRIER AIRMASS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA, IT SHOULD FEEL MORE PLEASANT. SKIES SHOULD BE CLEARER
TONIGHT. WITH A WEAKER LOW-LEVEL JET OVERNIGHT, THE LIGHTER
WINDS AND DRIER AIR SHOULD ALLOW OVERNIGHT LOWS TO FALL DOWN
INTO THE MIDDLE 60S FOR MOST AREAS.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL PUSH A
COLD FRONT SOUTH OF THE CSRA AND MIDLANDS ON SUNDAY. NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL BRING MUCH DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION WITH DEW POINTS
LOWERING INTO THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. A DOWNSLOPE FLOW
COMPRESSION WILL OFFSET SOME OF THE H5 HEIGHT FALLS WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. THE LOWER DEW POINTS WILL ALLOW LOW
TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S. A FEW SHELTERED
LOCATIONS MIGHT DROP INTO THE LOWER 60S. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
GRADUALLY RETURNS TO THE REGION ON MONDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A CHANCE OF
DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
A WEAK AND BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LINGERS OVER THE NORTHEAST
U.S. NEXT WEEK. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED IN THE VICINITY OF
THE CSRA AND MIDLANDS SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY FORCING MECHANISM
FOR DIURNAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. BELOW
NORMAL H5 HEIGHTS SHOULD LEAD TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
MID AUGUST.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
BROKEN MVFR/IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
MORNING OVER THE CSRA TAF LOCATIONS OF AGS/DNL WHERE DEEPER
MOISTURE STILL RESIDES. THERE WILL ALSO BE PERIODS OF THOSE
SAME CONDITIONS AT CAE/CUB/OGB AT LEAST THROUGH 09Z. DRIER AIR
AFTER SUNRISE SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE CONDITIONS IN THE
MIDLANDS BY 13Z, WITH THE CSRA SITES IMPROVEMENT DELAYED UNTIL
MID-MORNING. ALL SITES VFR BY 16Z WITH PLEASANT WEATHER EXPECTED
THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BECOME POSSIBLE AGAIN STARTING ON MONDAY.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
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