222
FXUS62 KCAE 141726
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
126 PM EDT TUE JUL 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SCATTER HEAVY SHOWERS EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY WITH WEDNESDAY
TRENDING A BIT DRIER. AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 18Z TAF.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE
AGAIN TODAY BEFORE CHANCES BECOME MORE SPOTTY WEDNESDAY.
WARMING TEMPERATURES AND RETURNING DIURNAL RAIN CHANCES
EXPECTED FOR THE LATE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY BEFORE CHANCES BECOME MORE SPOTTY
WEDNESDAY. WARMING TEMPERATURES AND RETURNING DIURNAL RAIN
CHANCES EXPECTED FOR THE LATE WEEK.
AFTER MULTIPLE ACTIVE DAYS, THINGS LOOK TO SLOWLY START TO WIND
DOWN INTO THE MID WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING COOLER THAN
NORMAL. THE DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT HAS CONTRIBUTED TO
THE SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING AND HEAVY RAINFALL THE LAST FEW
DAYS CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION. WITH MUCH OF
OUR AREA NOW NORTH OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY, AND THE CONSEQUENT
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE, CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL BE LESS INTENSE
THAN WE HAVE SEEN THE LAST FEW DAYS. PWAT'S HOWEVER STILL REMAIN
2.0-2.5", ALONG WITH SKINNY CAPE PROFILES, SO HIGHLY EFFICIENT
RAINFALL WILL STILL OCCUR WITH ANY CONVECTION AND SUCH TODAY.
HREF GUIDANCE IS LARGELY IN AGREEMENT, KEEPING THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL POTENTIAL IN THE CSRA THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE LPMM
SHOWING SPOTTY AREAS OF NEAR 2-4". THE CSRA BEING THE FOCUS
LINES UP WITH OBS AND HREF, WITH CURRENT OBS AS OF 18Z SHOWING
THE WEAKER SURFACE FORCING AND THE GENERAL LACK OF CONVECTION
FROM COLUMBIA NORTHEASTWARD. FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL SHOULD BE
LESS NOTABLE THAN MONDAY BUT SINCE AREAS LIKE EVANS AND MARTINEZ
NEAR AUGUSTA RECEIVED 4-6" YESTERDAY, THERE ARE SOME SENSITIVE
AREAS THAT WILL NOT TAKE EVEN THE HIGH END AMOUNTS SUGGESTED
FROM THE LPMM.
THE MAIN CHANGE COMES WEDNESDAY WITH GUIDANCE TRENDING A BIT
DRIER AS THE FRONT REMAINS SOUTH OF THE AREA AND ANY FORCING THE
MID LEVEL LOW RETROGRADES OUT OF THE REGION. THE AXIS OF PWAT'S
NEAR 2.25" IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY PIVOT OUT OF THE FA TOWARD THE
WEST, BUT PWAT'S NEAR 2" STILL MAY AID IN BRINGING AT LEAST
ISOLATED ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOON. HEADING INTO THE LATE
WEEK, ENSEMBLES AND GLOBAL MODELS DEPICT AN ELONGATED UPPER
RIDGE STRETCHING FROM THE CENTRAL CONUS, TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY.
THIS MAY AID IN BRINGING WEAK HEIGHT RISES TO THE FA AS LOW
LEVEL SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BRINGS BACK 850MB TEMPS
NEAR THE NAEFS 90TH PERCENTILE. THIS SETUP SHOULD SUPPORT
WARMING TEMPERATURES NEAR TO JUST ABOVE NORMAL LATE THIS WEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND. MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY SEASONABLE,
THUS CANNOT RULE OUT TYPICAL DIURNAL CONVECTION CHANCES,
ESPECIALLY BY THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
MAINLY VFR INTO TONIGHT WITH RESTRICTIONS BECOMING MORE LIKELY
NEAR DAYBREAK.
THE LOW STRATUS CONTINUES TO BREAK OUT THIS AFTERNOON AS
CEILINGS RISE. EXPECT MAINLY VFR CEILINGS AT THE TAFS WITH SOME
BRIEF MVFR PERIODIC MVFR CEILINGS AT THE AUGUSTA TERMINALS.
ISOLATED SHOWER AND STORMS CONTINUE TO BUBBLE UP ON RADAR, SO
HAVE INCLUDED A PROB30 GROUP FOR THUNDERSTORMS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AT ALL TERMINALS. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO WANE AS
DAYTIME HEATING DIMINISHES. OVERNIGHT, GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING
FOG AND/OR STRATUS TO DEVELOP NEAR DAYBREAK AND LINGER FOR
SEVERAL HOURS. THERE IS SOME QUESTION IN JUST HOW LOW THE
CEILINGS AND/OR VISIBILITIES GET, HOWEVER. GENERALLY ENE WINDS
FROM 5-10 KTS CAN BE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON, BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TO CALM OVERNIGHT.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THE THREAT FOR RESTRICTIONS EASES
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS CONDITIONS
BEGIN TO DRY OUT.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION...29
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page