677
FXUS62 KCAE 161733
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
133 PM EDT WED SEP 16 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION UPDATED FOR 18Z TAFS.
OTHERWISE, NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR CONTINUES INTO LATE IN WEEK.
- 2. INCREASING MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES RETURN FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR CONTINUES INTO
LATE IN WEEK.
AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER THE
AREA THROUGH MIDWEEK. THE RIDGE WILL RETROGRADE WEST BEFORE AN
UPPER LOW/INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPS OFF THE COAST AND BREAKS THE
RIDGE DOWN. MEANWHILE, AT THE SURFACE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
CONTINUES TO MARCH TOWARD THE GULF COAST STATES, USHERING IN A
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND DRIER
AIR. TEMPERATURES WILL HANG AROUND THE UPPER-80S TO LOW-90S
TODAY AND TOMORROW BEFORE REACHING THE MID-90S BY THE WEEKEND.
DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 60F, WITH SOME SPOTS
DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 50S THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. ALL IN ALL, SEASONABLE TEMPS CAN BE EXPECTED
TOMORROW ONCE AGAIN WHILE RELATIVELY DRY AIR REMAINS IN PLACE
THROUGH FRIDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2: INCREASING MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES RETURN FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW/INVERTED TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE
WESTWARD FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. AS IT DOES,
MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES BEGIN TO INCREASE FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. THE MAIN CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS
FORECASTS IS THAT GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED TOWARD A SOONER ARRIVAL
OF RAIN CHANCES TO THE AREA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
ANTICIPATED TO ARRIVE AT THE END OF THE WORK WEEK RATHER THAN
THE WEEKEND. RAIN CHANCES GENERALLY CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK AS
INCREASED MOISTURE LINGERS IN THE AREA. PWS GENERALLY RANGE
BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2.0 WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S. A
RELATIVE LULL IN COVERAGE IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY. THE EFI SIGNALS
WARMER THAN AVERAGE ON FRIDAY, BUT TEMPS DROP BACK TO NEAR
NORMAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE 24HR FORECAST PERIOD.
SCATTERED TO BROKEN VFR CLOUDS AROUND 5KFT ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE OVER THE TERMINALS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. AS SUNSET
APPROACHES, CLOUDS WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE WITH ONLY A FEW
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY.
WINDS ARE EASTERLY BETWEEN 5 TO 10 KNOTS, WITH A FEW HIGHER
GUSTS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A RETURN TO LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WILL OCCUR AFTER SUNSET, LASTING THROUGH THURSDAY.
WITH THE DRIER AIR MASS IN PLACE TONIGHT, RESTRICTIONS ARE
UNLIKELY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RAIN AND RESTRICTIONS UNLIKELY FOR
MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
BY THIS WEEKEND.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...NS
AVIATION...73
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