458
FXUS62 KCAE 030524
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1224 AM EST TUE FEB 3 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
KEY MESSAGES AND AVIATION UPDATED. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE
TO THE OVERALL MESSAGING.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MIDLANDS. AREAS OF BLACK ICE POSSIBLE.
- 2) A PASSING COLD FRONT BRINGS A CHANCE OF RAIN.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE #1: ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS. AREAS OF BLACK ICE POSSIBLE.
TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN BELOW FREEZING ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT THANKS TO CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE FALLING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT STILL HAVE A SNOW PACK. ANY
LOCATION THAT SAW SNOW MELT TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A RISK
OF BLACK ICE AS WELL. TEMPERATURES AT DAYBREAK SHOULD RANGE FROM
THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MIDLANDS
AND THE LOWER TO MID 20S IN THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA.
KEY MESSAGE #2: A PASSING COLD FRONT BRINGS A CHANCE OF RAIN.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES REGARDING THE UPCOMING UPPER PATTERN AS A
DEEPENING TROUGH MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A
SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT WILL BRING RAIN TO THE FORECAST AREA AS
EARLY AS LATE TONIGHT. THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
TO FALL ON WEDNESDAY WHEN IT MAY BE MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES,
THOUGH FLASH FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
MAINTAINED THE THINKING OF THE PREVIOUS SHIFT AND REMOVED ANY
FROZEN PRECIPITATION FROM THE FORECAST. AS MENTIONED, DRIER AIR
MOVING ALOFT SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WHILE A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE CANNOT
BE RULED OUT BASED ON TEMPERATURE PROFILES, THE MAJORITY OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD HAVE EXITED THE REGION PRIOR TO
SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES MOVING IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. OUTSIDE OF A
SPOTTY SHOWER, RAIN SHOULD BE OVER BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM IS DEVELOPING TO OUR WEST BUT NO
SIGNIFICANT AVIATION CONCERNS FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS. SOME HIGHER
CLOUDS WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA BY DAWN AND CONTINUE TO THICKEN
THROUGH THE DAY. CEILINGS HEIGHTS BEGIN TO LOWER LATE AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE EVENING AS MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT OCCURS. ANY PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO HOLD
OFF UNTIL NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT TO
CALM THROUGH 15Z THEN PICKING UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST AROUND 6 TO
9 KNOTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A FEW GUSTS UP TO 15 KNOTS CANNOT
BE RULED OUT BUT SHOULD BE BRIEF. WINDS THEN DIMINISH TO AROUND
5-6 KNOTS AFTER 00Z.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...ANOTHER SYSTEM AND FRONT MOVING
INTO THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY LIKELY TO
BRING SOME RESTRICTIONS BACK TO THE REGION.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...07
AVIATION...23
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page