536
FXUS62 KCAE 312332
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
732 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. GENERALLY DRY WEATHER AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES OVER 100F THIS WEEK.
- 2. ACTIVE WEATHER AND DECREASING TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE THIS
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1. GENERALLY DRY WEATHER AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES OVER 100F THIS
WEEK.
A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS CURRENTLY BUILDING OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS. BOTH DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUE
TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS RIDGE SLIDES OVER THE EASTERN
SEABOARD THROUGH MID TO LATE WEEK. THE NAEFS ENSEMBLE INDICATES
THE 500 MB HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR THE CLIMATOLOGICAL
MAX TOMORROW INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE DROPPING SLIGHTLY TO END THE
WEEK. WITH THE RIDGE OVERHEAD, GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK. THE BIGGER
STORY IS GOING TO BE THE HEAT. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
GRADUALLY INCREASE EACH DAY TO THE UPPER 90S FOR MID TO LATE
WEEK. WHEN FACTORING IN HUMIDITY, HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE LIKELY
TO EXCEED 100F, POTENTIALLY AS SOON AS TUESDAY, IN THE
AFTERNOONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THERE IS POTENTIAL WE
APPROACH HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA LATE IN THE WEEK, BUT THAT WILL
LARGELY BE DEPENDENT ON HOW WELL THE ATMOSPHERE MIXES OUT EACH
DAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2. ACTIVE WEATHER AND DECREASING TEMPERATURES
POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND.
GLOBAL ENSEMBLES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE RIDGE OVERHEAD
LATE IN THE WEEK RETROGRADES WESTWARD, ALLOWING FOR A TROUGH TO
SLIDE DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD. AS IT DOES, CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TO INCREASE AT THE END OF THE
WORKWEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. COOLER AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE FORECAST
FOR NEXT WEEKEND AS WELL.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY EXPECTED EXCEPT POSSIBLE EARLY MORNING
FOG/STRATUS.
A BIT DRIER AIR WAS OBSERVED IN THE LOW LEVELS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AS DEW POINTS MIXED OUT MORE TODAY COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY. WHILE A LOW LEVEL MOISTURE GRADIENT REMAINS IN PLACE
AND THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME DEGREE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
RETURN, THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRATUS AND FOG. THINK THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS RESTRICTIONS
AT THE TYPICAL SITES SUCH AS OGB/AGS (AND BRIEFLY AIK) WHILE
OTHER SITES REMAIN MOSTLY VFR, ALTHOUGH BRIEF NEAR SUNRISE
RESTRICTIONS STILL REMAINS POSSIBLE. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO LIMIT
THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD IFR RESTRICTIONS, HOWEVER, SO WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF A TEMPO GROUP FOR OGB/AGS, HAVE LEFT OUT THE
MENTION FOR IFR RESTRICTIONS. CUMULUS CLOUDS ONCE AGAIN TOMORROW
WITH LITTLE CHANCE FOR STORMS AND GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...EARLY MORNING RESTRICTIONS STILL
POSSIBLE DESPITE A DRIER OUTLOOK FOR THE WEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ND
AVIATION...96
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page