720
FXUS62 KCAE 080559
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1259 AM EST THU JAN 8 2026
SYNOPSIS
DENSE FOG WILL DEVELOP THIS MORNING AND MAY IMPACT THE MORNING
COMMUTE. DRY AND WARMER WEATHER CONTINUES FOR MUCH OF THIS
WEEK. THIS MAY LEAD TO NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY.
THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT CHANCE OF RAIN, ALONG WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES, ARRIVES THIS WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- DENSE FOG ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH 9AM
CALM WINDS, AND A MOIST NEAR-SURFACE LAYER WILL ONCE AGAIN
CONTRIBUTE TO FOG DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
EXPECT AREAS OF DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-20
WHERE MOISTURE IS HIGHER. FOG IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AROUND
9AM. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE A FEW SPOTS WHERE FOG LINGERS A
LITTLE LATER, VISIBILITIES WILL GENERALLY IMPROVE.
UPPER RIDGING WILL EXTEND INTO THE SOUTHEAST TODAY FAVORING A
CONTINUED WARMING TREND. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL
WITH VALUES MAINLY IN THE LOW 70S. TEMPS MAY BE HAMPERED SOME IF
FOG LINGERS FOR LONGER THAN EXPECTED THIS MORNING.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT OFFSHORE TONIGHT WITH
STRENGTHENING SW 850 MB FLOW. DESPITE AN UPTICK IN SHALLOW MOISTURE
ADVECTION, THERE WILL REMAIN A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF DRY AIR AT
THE MID-LEVELS. ISENTROPIC LIFT IS EXPECTED TO BE WEAK AND
LIMITED TO MAINLY THE SC UPSTATE. ALTHOUGH A STRAY SPRINKLE
CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVERNIGHT, THE CHANCE OF RAIN IS LOW (LESS
THAN 20 PERCENT).
THE THREAT OF FOG CONTINUES TONIGHT WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
AIR MASS. HOWEVER HIGH CLOUDS AND A STRONGER LOW LEVEL JET THAN
THE PREVIOUS NIGHT COULD LIMIT THE EXTENT OF ANY DENSE FOG.
MODELS GENERALLY FAVOR A PERSISTENCE FORECAST HIGHLIGHTING
AREAS SOUTH OF I-20.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- NEAR RECORD HIGHS FOR BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
- FRONTAL BOUNDARY BRINGS CHANCES FOR RAIN, MAINLY SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT.
UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN
SEABOARD ON FRIDAY. A SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OFFSHORE OF THE MID-
ATLANTIC FRIDAY BRINGS SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS TO THE AREA, WHICH MAY
BRING ENOUGH ISENTROPIC LIFT TO THE AREA TO PRODUCE A LIGHT SHOWER
FRIDAY MORNING, BUT CHANCES ARE LOW (~10%). THE UPPER RIDGE AND
SURFACE HIGH DRIFT EASTWARD PLACING THE AREA SOLIDLY UNDER SOUTHWEST
FLOW, WHICH BRINGS ANOTHER SURGE OF WARM AIR AND INCREASING
MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR RECORD HIGHS (CAE-
80F, AGS-78F) FRIDAY, WITH BLENDED GUIDANCE SHOWING THESE VALUES
WITHIN REACH AT THE 75TH PERCENTILE, WHILE THE 50TH PERCENTILE TEMPS
ARE JUST A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN THE 75TH. A TRANSIENT UPPER
SHORT WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AREA ON
FRIDAY, WHICH ALLOWS FOR SOME PRECIPITATION TO APPROACH THE AREA.
HOWEVER, GUIDANCE KEEPS PRECIP OUT OF THE AREA UNTIL POTENTIALLY
OVERNIGHT FRIDAY AS A SECOND SHORTWAVE DEVELOPS A SURFACE LOW OVER
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AS THE LOW PROGRESSES NORTHEAST, AN
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. ROBUST SOUTHWEST FLOW
THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN IS EXPECTED TO BOOST TEMPS A BIT MORE
FOR SATURDAY. THIS GIVES US ANOTHER SHOT AT REACHING RECORD HIGHS
AGAIN (CAE-82F, AGS-80F) AS BLENDED GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A HIGH
CHANCE (60-75%) OF HIGHS HITTING 80F OR ABOVE FOR THE EASTERN
MIDLANDS AND LOWER CSRA. IN ADDITION TO THE WARM TEMPS, TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME BREEZY TO GUSTY WINDS ON
SATURDAY, WHICH COULD LEAD TO THE NEED FOR A LAKE WIND ADVISORY. AS
THE UPPER SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE FRONT MOVE EASTWARD, CHANCES FOR
RAIN INCREASE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. THE BEST DYNAMICS
MOVE NORTHWARD AS THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA, WHICH
LEADS TO THE NORTH AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA TO HAVE A BETTER
CHANCE OF SEEING THE HIGHEST RAINFALLS. LIGHTER AMOUNTS EXPECTED AS
YOU MOVE SOUTH AND EAST. RAIN CHANCES ARE LOOKING TO BE TO OUR EAST
BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, BUT THERE COULD BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
IN THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- COOLER AND DRY FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.
- CHANCE FOR RAIN RETURNS MIDWEEK.
AFTER THE FRONT PASSES, MUCH COOLER (THOUGH CLOSE TO AVERAGE) AND
DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION TO BEGIN THE WEEK. SUNDAY ALSO LOOKS
TO BE ANOTHER BREEZY DAY BEHIND THE EXITING COLD FRONT DUE TO THE
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION. THE COOLEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM IS
FORECAST TO BE MONDAY. ANOTHER POTENTIAL SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
APPROACH THE AREA MIDWEEK, WHICH COULD BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN, BUT
THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
DENSE FOG LIKELY THROUGH 14Z, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER
ROUND OF FOG EARLY FRIDAY.
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT WITH SURFACE
DEWPOINTS MORE TYPICAL OF THE WARM SEASON. AN ABNORMALLY MOIST
NEAR SURFACE LAYER AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL SUPPORT THE
THREAT OF IFR OR LIFR VISIBILITIES AT ALL SITES THOUGH 14Z THIS
MORNING. LESS CONFIDENCE AT CAE AND CUB WHERE DRIER AIR HAS
PUSHED IN FROM THE NORTH. ALTHOUGH AT LEAST BRIEF FOG AROUND
SUNRISE STILL APPEARS LIKELY.
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE MORNING, WITH THE
SLOWEST IMPROVEMENT AT KAGS/KDNL/KOGB WHERE IFR RESTRICTIONS
COULD LINGER INTO THE LATE MORNING. AFTER THAT TIME, EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS WITH RATHER LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS.
ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT WITH LITTLE CHANGE
IN THE AIR MASS. HOWEVER HIGH CLOUDS AND A 15 TO 20 KT LLJ
COULD LIMIT THE EXTENT OF DENSE FOG COMPARED TO THE CALM WINDS
OF THE PREVIOUS NIGHT. MODELS GENERALLY FAVOR A PERSISTENCE
FORECAST HIGHLIGHTING AREAS SOUTH OF I-20.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA
THIS WEEKEND BRINGING SHOWERS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD
RESTRICTIONS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR SCZ030-035-
037-038-041-135>137.
GA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR GAZ063>065-
077.
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