153
FXUS62 KCAE 171811
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
211 PM EDT TUE MAR 17 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TONIGHT & MAY HARM
SENSITIVE VEGETATION.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TONIGHT & MAY HARM
SENSITIVE VEGETATION.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE JUST TO OUR NORTH TONIGHT AND SET US UP
FOR A COLD NIGHT AHEAD. A COMBINATION OF SOME MID- LEVEL CLOUD
COVER MOVING IN LATE TONIGHT AND BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL HELP
OFFSET LOW LEVEL DRY AIR, SO FAR FROM A TRULY IDEAL RADIATIONAL
COOLING SETUP BUT THE AIRMASS IN GENERAL IS COLD-DRY; TEMPS THIS
AFTERNOON ARE IN THE MID-UPPER 40'S WITH DEWS DOWN BELOW 20 F.
REGARDLESS, WITH THE INITIAL CLEAR SKIES AND GENERALLY LIGHT
WINDS AFTER SUNSET, SOME SUB- FREEZING TEMPS FOR SEVERAL HOURS ARE
LIKELY BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. NBM MEAN IS AROUND 30 F FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA, WHICH DOES A FAIRLY REASONABLE JOB DEPICTING THE
EARLY MORNING CLOUD COVER. SO THE FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK, AS
TEMPS WILL LIKELY FALL QUICKLY AND THEN LEVEL OFF AS THOSE
CLOUDS MOVE IN AFTER 4AM.
OTHERWISE WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS UNLIKELY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL SWING THROUGH THE REGION BY THIS
EVENING AND COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL CENTER OVER THE FORECAST
AREA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 10 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20-25 MPH WHICH
THEN WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET TO LESS THAN 5 KNOTS OVERNIGHT.
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD PICKING
UP TO AROUND 5 KNOTS OR SO MID MORNING AND SHIFTING MORE
EASTERLY AS THE HIGH SETTLES OVER THE REGION. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
THROUGH EVENING THEN SOME HIGHER CLOUDS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN
LATER TONIGHT.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... NO SIGNIFICANT AVIATION CONCERNS
THROUGH THE WEEK WITH DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR SCZ016-018-
020>022-025>031-035-037-038-041-115-116-135>137.
GA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR GAZ040-
063>065-077.
DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION...23
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