482
FXUS62 KCAE 211721
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
121 PM EDT WED OCT 21 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK.
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 18Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK AND INTO
THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO JUST BELOW NORMAL.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO JUST BELOW
NORMAL.
AFTER A CHILLY START TO THIS MORNING, TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN
FAIRLY QUICKLY, PARTIALLY DUE TO HOW DRY THE AIRMASS CONTINUES
TO BE, AND WE SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. WITHOUT
MUCH CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN TODAY AND TONIGHT, EXPECT
ANOTHER COOL NIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY DROPPING TO THE MID 40S
UNDER MAINLY CLEAR SKIES.
OTHERWISE, ANOTHER FAIRLY RINSE AND REPEAT FORECAST IS EXPECTED
OVER THE COMING SEVERAL DAYS. AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATER PART OF
THE WORK WEEK, A DEEP TROUGH CURRENTLY OFF THE SOUTHERN CA
COAST, WILL SLOWLY WORK EASTWARD INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION,
FURTHER AMPLIFYING THE CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE AND TROUGHING OVER
THE EASTERN US. WHILE THIS UPPER LEVEL PATTERN SHOULD NOT BRING
ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE PATTERN WE ARE CURRENTLY IN, HIGH
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY CONTINUE TO TREND COOLER,
TOWARD THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S FRIDAY AND THE MID TO UPPER 60S
SATURDAY. LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, TEMPERATURES
LIKELY RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES AGAIN AS GLOBAL MODELS SHOW
THE RIDGE FINALLY BUILDING OVERHEAD WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WORKING INTO THE CAROLINAS. AS DISCUSSED THE PAST FEW DAYS, THE
CHANCE FOR MEANINGFUL RAINFALL REMAINS VERY LOW INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH MINIMAL MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE SOUTHEAST.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
NO REAL SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO OUR WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS. WINDS REMAINING OUT OF THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE DAY TIME HOURS, GENERALLY BETWEEN 5-10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON,
THEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH MUCH OF
THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR,
WITH AN OCCASIONAL PASSING MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUD POSSIBLE.
THERE MAY BE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE OVERNIGHT,
ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO RIVERS AND BODIES OF WATER. BECAUSE OF
THIS, DEWPOINTS MAY BE A LITTLE HIGHER DURING THE MORNING HOURS
THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS, AND WITH THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS, SOME SHALLOW PATCHY GROUND FOG CAN NO LONGER BE
COMPLETELY RULED OUT, ESPECIALLY AT AGS/OGB TOWARDS SUNRISE.
CONFIDENCE IS STILL ON THE LOWER SIDE AT THIS POINT, BUT MAY
NEED TO BEGIN INCLUDING A TEMPO FOR MVFR VISIBILITIES WITH LATER
TAF UPDATES IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MOISTURE CREEPS BACK INTO THE AREA
THIS WEEKEND. SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE
EXTENDED.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...29
AVIATION...73
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