745
FXUS62 KCAE 272329
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
729 PM EDT MON APR 27 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NONE FOR KEY MESSAGES. EXPECTED RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH THE
WEEK REMAIN RELATIVELY STEADY HOWEVER THE CHANCE FOR RAIN THIS
WEEKEND HAS INCREASED. UPDATE AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 00Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE MID-WEEK.
- 2. RAINFALL CHANCES FOR THIS WEEKEND ARE INCREASING.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE MID-WEEK.
RAIN CHANCES WILL TREND UPWARD AS WE HEAD INTO THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK. WHILE THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON
TUESDAY, COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION. AT THIS POINT, THE BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
ON TUESDAY SHOULD SHOULD BE LIMITED AND CONFINED TO THE WESTERN
AND NORTHERN MIDLANDS.
AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES IN, MODERATE WIND SHEAR COUPLED WITH
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY HINTS AT THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW-END STORM
ORGANIZATION, WITH AN OVERALL DECENT CHANCE OF RAINFALL THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WHILE THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT REMAINS LOW, IT
CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER
OF AN INCH TO HALF AN INCH ARE LOOKING MORE LIKELY, BUT RECENT
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED LOWER WITH QPF TOTALS. ADDITIONAL
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH LATER IN THE WEEK WILL MAINTAIN
AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION BEYOND THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE.
KEY MESSAGE 2: RAINFALL CHANCES FOR THIS WEEKEND ARE INCREASING
ENSEMBLE CLUSTER ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT BROAD TROUGHING IS FAVORED
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE US BY LATE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. THE NAEFS SHOWS PWAT VALUES APPROACHING THE 90TH
PERCENTILE OF CLIMATOLOGY WITH IVT NEAR THE 97TH PERCENTILE.
THIS SUPPORTS A HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS FROM FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO
MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. WHILE THERE REMAINS A LARGE SPREAD IN
MODEL GUIDANCE FOR THE TIME PERIOD, THERE IS POTENTIAL TO SEE
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL FOR THIS EVENT. ALTHOUGH WE ARE TOO FAR OUT
TO GET AN ACCURATE DETERMINATION OF RAIN AMOUNTS, WE SHOULD SEE
CONFIDENCE FORECAST AMOUNTS INCREASE AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE
WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, BUT LOW CHANCES
FOR RESTRICTIONS LATE IN THE PERIOD.
CLEAR SKIES HAVE BROUGHT US TO THIS POINT IN THE EVENING. THIS
AFTERNOON WAS GENUINELY BEAUTIFUL, WITH SUNNY SKIES FOLLOWING
THE MORNING STRATUS AT ALL SITES. LOOKING FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
UNTIL LATE TONIGHT AS DRY AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE SHIFT OFF TO THE
EAST. BY TUESDAY MORNING, MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO WORK ITS WAY
BACK IN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT, WITH SOME MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS LIKELY TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION ASSOCIATED WITH DECAYING
SHOWERS/STORMS. SOME MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS BUT
GENERALLY THINKING VFR CIGS WILL BE WHAT ENDS UP HAPPENING.
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY HANG AROUND INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON, WITH
WINDS SHIFTING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KNOTS.
OVERALL, A LOW IMPACT TAF PERIOD IS EXPECTED.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PERIODS OF RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE INTO THE MID TO LATE WEEK WITH A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN
CONTINUING.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ND/CJR/CAL
AVIATION...PL
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