593
FXUS62 KCAE 051740
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
140 PM EDT SAT SEP 5 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MINIMAL CHANGE TO HEAT HEADLINES TODAY. A BIT MORE CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE POSSIBLE SUNDAY. AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 18Z
TAF ISSUANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. HEAT INDEX VALUES BETWEEN 105-110 ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON, ELEVATING THE RISK OF HEAT RELATED ILLNESSES.
- 2. SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- 3. ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1. HEAT INDEX VALUES BETWEEN 105-110 ARE EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON, ELEVATING THE RISK OF HEAT RELATED ILLNESSES.
HIGHS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100
DEGREES TODAY. ALTHOUGH WE WILL BE NEAR DAILY RECORDS AT CAE/AGS
(101F AT CAE AND 102F AT AGS), TEMPERATURES MAY FALL JUST SHY.
A FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO WORK TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE NORTH,
WITH AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS LIKELY REMAINING IN THE UPPER 60S TO
MID 70S IN SOME SPOTS AHEAD OF IT. THIS IS EXPECTED TO YIELD
WIDESPREAD HEAT INDICES LIKELY FALLING BETWEEN 105-110F. THE
UPTICK IN OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES TODAY WILL BRING MUCH A MUCH HIGHER
RISK FOR HEAT RELATED ILLNESSES, SO PROACTIVE MEASURES TO STAY
HYDRATED AND REMAIN COOL SHOULD BE TAKEN. A HEAT ADVISORY WILL
BE IN EFFECT STARTING AT 11AM, CONTINUING UNTIL 8PM FOR THE
WHOLE CWA.
CONVECTION IS STILL EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF UNTIL THE LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS
OR STORMS EARLIER, BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS LOW.
KEY MESSAGE 2. SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
A SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO SPARK CONVECTION TO OUR NORTH TODAY
AS THE DISTURBANCE CARRIES EAST INTO EASTERN NC LATE TODAY. AS
THUNDERSTORMS MOVE FROM THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND INTO THE
SC PIEDMONT THIS AFTERNOON THEY WILL ENCOUNTER A RELATIVELY DRY
AIR MASS BUT WITH VERY STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THIS
ENVIRONMENT WOULD BE CONDUCIVE FOR DAMAGING WINDS WITH LARGE
CAPE PROFILES (MLCAPE NEAR 2500 J/KG) AND DCAPE VALUES NEAR OR
OVER 1000 J/KG.
OVERALL, THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK WHERE THE BULK OF CONVECTION
IS EXPECTED MAINLY AFTER 21Z AS BETTER FORCING AND THE
AFOREMENTIONED BATCH OF STORMS ATTEMPTS TO PUSH INTO THE
NORTHERN FA. HOWEVER THE CAMS SHOW THE MORE ORGANIZED STORMS
BREAKING UP AS THEY MOVE INTO THE DRIER AIR MASS TO THE SOUTH
AND THE BETTER DYNAMICS REMAIN TO THE NORTH. ALTHOUGH THIS WILL
LIMIT THE THREAT OF WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER WE CAN STILL
EXPECT A CHANCE OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS WHICH WOULD
CAUSE DAMAGING WINDS. THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE WILL BE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MIDLANDS WHERE STORMS COULD PUSH IN BEFORE LOSS OF
HEATING. AS OUTFLOW CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA
OVERNIGHT WE COULD SEE ADDITIONAL STORMS DEVELOP THROUGH THE
NIGHT BUT THE CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER IS LOWER.
KEY MESSAGE 3. ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
SUNDAY.
A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SAG THROUGH THE
FA SUNDAY. COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAY'S FORECASTS THE BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED TO BE FURTHER NORTH, ALLOWING FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORMS AS A PROMINENT SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA IN
THE AFTERNOON. BY MID DAY, THE BOUNDARY COULD STILL BE BISECTING
THE CWA. ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL BE HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS
DAY WITH PWAT VALUES CLOSE TO 1.8 TO 2 INCHES. AS SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MOVES INTO THE REGION EXPECT, SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
STORMS TO DEVELOP, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF WHERE THE
BOUNDARY ENDS UP. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT A DOWNBURST WIND
THREAT WITH MLCAPE VALUES FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG AND DCAPE
VALUES CLOSE TO 1000 J/KG. LINGERING CLOUD COVER COULD PUT A
DAMPER ON THIS ENVIRONMENT, ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS,
BUT IF CLEARING IS SEEN THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
HIGHER.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
MAINLY VFR EXPECTED WITH POSSIBLE CONVECTION LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. SOME FOG/LOW STRATUS POSSIBLE NEAR
DAYBREAK.
CUMULUS HAS STARTED DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
WITH BASES AROUND 5K FT. LATE AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AS A DISTURBANCE TO OUR NORTH CARRIES
THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS FROM THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND
INTO THE SC PIEDMONT THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, DRIER AIR IN OUR
CWA COULD LIMIT COVERAGE AS THEY MOVE CLOSER TO THE TERMINALS.
FOR NOW, PROB30 GROUPS HAVE BEEN INCLUDED AT ALL SITES WITH
CONVECTION OCCURRING ROUGHLY BETWEEN 20Z-03Z. THE HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE WILL BE AT OUR NORTHERN TERMINALS WHERE STORMS COULD
PUSH IN BEFORE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT UNDER MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR FOG OR LOW STRATUS AT THE
TERMINALS BETWEEN 09-14Z ON SUNDAY. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE MONITORED TONIGHT FOR THE NEED FOR ADDITIONAL WIDESPREAD
RESTRICTIONS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CHANCES FOR RESTRICTIONS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE SUNDAY. DIURNAL STORM CHANCES CONTINUE
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ016-018-
020>022-025>031-035-037-038-041-115-116-135>137.
GA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GAZ040-063>065-
077.
DISCUSSION...CJR
AVIATION...ND
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page