265
FXUS62 KCAE 190004
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
804 PM EDT SUN OCT 18 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. AVIATION
DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 00Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEK WITH A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEK WITH A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND.
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO DECAY THIS EVENING AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOSENS WITH THE MID-LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED
COASTAL LOW BECOMING FURTHER DISPLACED OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST. DUE TO THIS, THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE ON TIME. TONIGHT, CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN,
SETTING THE STAGE FOR SOLID RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. THE
MAIN LIMITING FACTOR IN OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES APPEARS TO BE
ELEVATED WINDS OVERNIGHT AS A 25-30 KT LLJ SETS UP. DESPITE
THIS, LOWS INTO THE LOWER 40S ARE EXPECTED, THOUGH A FEW SPOTS
COULD DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S.
HEADING INTO THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK, MINIMAL CHANGE IN THE
FORECAST IS SEEN. REINFORCING HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD BACK
IN, POSSIBLY WITH BRIEF SHORTWAVE RIDGING INTO THE MID TO LATE
WEEK. THIS PATTERN SHOULD KEEP MUCH DRIER AIR IN PLACE (PWAT'S
UNDER 0.50"), BUT MOS/NBM AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
TEMPERATURES SHOULD GRADUALLY REACH CLOSER TO NORMAL BY THE MID
TO LATE WEEK. AT THIS TIME, THERE REMAINS LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN
ANY MEANINGFUL RAIN EVEN INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.
GUSTY WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED WITH SUNSET AND EXPECTED TO REMAIN
UNDER 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT FROM THE NORTHEAST. A COASTAL LOW
OFFSHORE COMBINED WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING DOWN THE EAST COAST
WILL KEEP AN ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION AND
WINDS WILL PICK UP AFTER 14Z TO AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO
20 KNOTS THROUGH AROUND 18Z BEFORE SUBSIDING THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON. THERE IS A 30 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET OVERNIGHT SO
MARGINAL LLWS POSSIBLE BUT THINK SURFACE WINDS STAY UP ENOUGH.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PROBABILITY OF RESTRICTIONS THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS LOW.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DH/29
AVIATION...23
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