092
FXUS62 KCAE 290836
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
336 AM EST MON NOV 29 2021
SYNOPSIS
COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION TODAY. EXPECT A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND TO ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
BEGINNING TUESDAY ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON BREEZINESS AS
THE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE. NO RAIN IN THE FORECAST INTO
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
A COLD FRONT IS CROSSING THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING AND
SHOULD REACH THE COAST BY 12-14Z WITH NORTHERLY WINDS SPREADING
OVER THE FORECAST AREA. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES BUT SOME HIGHER CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION
LATER THIS MORNING AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES. MOISTURE
WILL BE VERY LIMITED WITH PWATS FALLING TO AROUND 0.25 INCHES OR
LESS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
RESULT IN SOME DOWNSLOPING WHICH WILL OFFSET THE COLD ADVECTION
TO A DEGREE. HIGH TEMPERATURES STILL EXPECTED TO BE COOLER THAN
SUNDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 50S NORTH TO UPPER 50S
IN THE CSRA AND SOUTHEAST MIDLANDS. THE REINFORCING DRY AIR
MASS AIDED BY DOWNSLOPING FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN LOWERING
DEWPOINTS INTO THE TEENS BY THIS AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES COMBINED WITH NEAR CALM WINDS AS
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION SHOULD PROVIDE NEAR IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
DROP QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET AND FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S ACROSS THE
REGION. LEANED TOWARD THE COOLER MET GUIDANCE.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US BY
TUESDAY, SLOWLY SHIFTING TOWARDS THE COAST. A DRY AND COOLER
AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE TO START THE DAY BUT WITH 500MB
HEIGHTS RECOVERING TO NEAR AVERAGE AND SW SURFACE WINDS
PROMOTING WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION, TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER TO
NEAR AVERAGE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S UNDER SUNNY SKIES. FAVORABLE
RADIATIONAL COOLING ONCE AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT, ALTHOUGH A
SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY MAY LEAD TO SOME INCREASED
HIGH CLOUDS WITH A BIT STRONGER LOW LEVEL JET. STILL THINK THAT
THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE THAT TEMPERATURES DROP QUICKLY AFTER
SUNSET WITH LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S.
WEDNESDAY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA BUT RIDGING WILL REMAIN OVER SC AND EASTERN GA WITH
TEMPERATURES MODERATING FURTHER WITH THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINING OFFSHORE CONTINUING TO PROMOTE WARM ADVECTION.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT A BIT MORE BOUNDARY LAYER WIND IS EXPECTED WHICH
WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS RELATIVELY MILD, IN THE LOW TO MID 40S.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ANOTHER LOW WILL PASS WELL TO THE NORTH THURSDAY LEADING TO
BREEZY WINDS AS UPPER RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD WITH THE AXIS
JUST WEST OF THE AREA. NW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO REINFORCE
DEEP LAYER DRY AIR. ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SUPPORT PWATS WELL
BELOW AN INCH THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH INCREASES
EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND LEADING TO AN INCREASE IN MOSTLY HIGH AND
MID LEVEL CLOUDS WITH THE LOWER LEVELS REMAINING DRY, LIMITING
ANY CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. WITH UPPER RIDGING BUILDING AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO REMAIN OFFSHORE,
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE BY THE END OF THE WEEK
WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 40S.
AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT
OFFSHORE BY MIDDAY WITH NORTHERLY WIND PERSISTING THROUGH THE
DAY AROUND 8 TO 10 KNOTS WITH SOME GUSTS TO 15 KNOTS BRIEFLY MID
MORNING. SKIES WILL GENERALLY BE CLEAR EXCEPT FOR SOME PASSING
HIGH CLOUDS. WINDS WILL BECOME NEAR CALM AFTER SUNSET THIS
EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION
EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE EARLY THIS WEEK. METEOROLOGICAL
CRITERIA WILL REMAIN BELOW A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT OR A RED
FLAG WARNING HOWEVER CONDITIONS ARE BEING CLOSELY MONITORED AS
DAYTIME RH VALUES OF 25%-30% ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.
DEWPOINTS BEGIN TO RECOVER ON WEDNESDAY REDUCING FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS AT LEAST THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
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