138
FXUS62 KCAE 160629
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
229 AM EDT FRI OCT 16 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 06Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. NEAR-RECORD WARMTH FOR ONE MORE DAY.
- 2. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION
TONIGHT, USHERING IN COOLER WEATHER THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: NEAR-RECORD WARMTH FOR ONE MORE DAY.
UPPER RIDGING LINGERS OVER THE SOUTHEAST FOR ONE MORE DAY TODAY
BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES IN. THIS WILL KEEP NEAR RECORD
HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WITH TEMPS MAXING OUT IN THE UPPER 80S TO
NEAR 90 DEGREES. A SIGNIFICANT COOL-DOWN IS ON THE WAY THIS
WEEKEND, AND WILL BE VERY NOTICEABLE!
KEY MESSAGE 2: A STRONG COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH THROUGH
THE REGION TONIGHT, USHERING IN COOLER WEATHER THIS WEEKEND.
OUR FIRST TRUE COLD FRONT OF THE SEASON IS ON TRACK FOR THIS
WEEKEND. GUIDANCE HAS SLOWED THE FRONT DOWN SLIGHTLY ON FRIDAY
NIGHT OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS; EVEN STILL, IT IS FORECAST
TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING. COOLER AIR IS FORECAST TO RUSH INTO THE AREA BEHIND
IT, WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED AS WELL. THE TROUGH FORCING
ALL OF THIS HAS TRENDED MUCH SHARPER OVER THE LAST SEVERAL
DAYS, WITH GUIDANCE NOW SHOWING SOME FORM OF THE TROUGH CUTTING
OFF TO OUR EAST BY SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY. MODELS REMAIN A BIT
ALL OVER THE PLACE STILL WITH THE EVOLUTION AND EVENTUAL
PLACEMENT OF THE CUTOFF LOW. REGARDLESS, SOME SHOWERS ARE LIKELY
EARLY ON SATURDAY AS THE FRONT CLEARS, MOISTURE LAGS A BIT
BEHIND, AND INTENSE SYNOPTIC LIFT ALLOWS FOR SOME RAIN TO
DEVELOP. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE QUITE BREEZY ON SATURDAY AS
WELL. LATEST TIME/HEIGHT PLOTS SUGGEST THAT WIND GUSTS OF 30-40
MPH ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY AS A COOL AND DRY AIRMASS
RAPIDLY ADVECTS INTO THE AREA. WE WILL LIKELY NEED A LAKE WIND
ADVISORY AND BORDERING ON WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA, ESPECIALLY IF
THE COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS A BIT EARLIER AND CLOSER TO THE
CAROLINAS. SUNDAY WILL BE QUITE CHILLY WITH TEMPS IN THE LOW 60S
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S. FROM THERE, A MODEST WARM UP
CLOSER TO NORMAL IS EXPECTED INTO NEXT WEEK. GIVEN THE PRESENCE
OF NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE, COOL TEMPS AND
DRY AIR IS EXPECTED DEEP INTO NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF POSSIBLE MORNING
STRATUS OR FOG ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN.
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR CALM WINDS WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT. SOME GUIDANCE HINTS AT POSSIBLE STRATUS/FOG
DEVELOPING ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN IMPACTING OUR TYPICAL FOG-
PRONE SITES OF OGB AND AGS. WE HAVE SEEN SOME BRIEF FOG-STRATUS
ALREADY AT THESE SITES, AND THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
PERIODICALLY OVERNIGHT. SO LEFT THE TEMPO IN PLACE. OTHERWISE,
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. A STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON FRIDAY AND AN INCREASED PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND
10 KNOTS AFTER 15Z WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS AROUND 17 KNOTS
LIKELY BY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL SHIFT LATER FRIDAY NIGHT FROM
THE NORTHWEST BUT THAT IS EXPECTED TO HAPPEN AFTER THIS TAF
PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
TO BE LIMITED, BREEZY W/SW WINDS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY EVENING
SHIFTING TO A NORTHERLY DIRECTION ON SATURDAY.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ND
AVIATION...42
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