894
FXUS62 KCAE 240544
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
144 AM EDT WED JUN 24 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED KEY MESSAGES TO HIGHLIGHT THE HEAT EXPECTED BY THE END
OF THE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED
FOR 06Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. HEAT BUILDS WITH STRENGTHENING UPPER RIDGING LATE THIS
WEEK. ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: HEAT BUILDS WITH STRENGTHENING UPPER RIDGING LATE THIS
WEEK. ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
HEAT INDICES WILL BE LOWER TODAY AS LOW LEVEL DRY AIR FILTERS INTO
THE AREA BEHIND A COLD FRONT. THIS WILL BE THE MOST COMFORTABLE DAY
OF THE PERIOD AS HEAT IS EXPECTED TO BUILD LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND. STRONG MODEL CONSENSUS IN HEIGHTS RISING BEGINNING
THURSDAY. NAEFS MEAN INDICATES 500MB HEIGHTS BY FRIDAY WILL BE ABOVE
THE 90TH PERCENTILE AND WILL REMAIN ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS RIDGING STRENGTHENS TO THE WEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. EC EFI SHOWS MAX T OVER THE AREA NEAR 0.8 FOR EACH
DAY FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, ALTHOUGH NOT A SIGNIFICANT SHIFT OF TAILS
SIGNAL, INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR UNUSUALLY HIGH TEMPERATURES
THIS WEEKEND BUT NOT EXPECTING EXTREME HEAT. A BIT MORE UNCERTAINTY
IN BLENDED GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SOME
POTENTIAL WEAKNESSES IN THE RIDGE AS THE PATTERN BECOMES MORE
AMPLIFIED WITH LOWERING HEIGHTS EXPECTED ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND
RISING HEIGHTS OVER THE GREAT LAKES, LEAVING THE SOUTHEAST SOMEWHAT
IN BETWEEN. IN GENERAL, HOWEVER, BLENDED GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THE
HOTTEST PERIOD OF THE YEAR SO FAR TO CLOSE OUT THE MONTH OF JUNE
WITH HEAT INDICES POTENTIALLY EXCEEDING 100F EACH DAY, ALTHOUGH AT
THIS POINT EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
ENSEMBLE MEANS INDICATE NEAR NORMAL PWATS FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND,
ALTHOUGH THE RIDGING IN PLACE WILL LIKELY SUPPORT BROAD SUBSIDENCE
OVER THE FORECAST AREA. A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE FRIDAY MAY SUPPORT
SCATTERED SHOWERS OR STORMS BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT ISOLATED DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CONVECTION. THE PRECIP POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY BE HIGHEST IN
THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WHERE THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL WEAKNESSES IN THE
RIDGE.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
FA TONIGHT, WITH LIGHT WINDS BECOMING INCREASINGLY NORTHERLY.
FEW TO SCT MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONTAL
PASSAGE, BUT OUTSIDE OF THIS, VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST INTO
THE MORNING HOURS AS DRIER AIR PUSHES IN. 6-9 KT WINDS TURN A
BIT MORE NORTHEASTERLY LATE THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON
AS FEW CUMULUS DEVELOP AFTER 16-18Z WITH PASSING CIRRUS. WINDS
THEN ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING AND
TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH MOSTLY TO PARTLY CLEAR
SKIES.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY
STARTING THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND SHOULD YIELD DAILY DIURNAL
CONVECTION AND POSSIBLE ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...96
AVIATION...DH
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