876
FXUS62 KCAE 251045
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
645 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED AVIATION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WITH INCREASING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
AS THE WEEK GOES ON.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WITH INCREASING
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS THE WEEK GOES ON.
MORE OF THE SAME IS EXPECTED TODAY AS THE REGION REMAINS ON THE
DRY SIDE OF A SFC BOUNDARY. NORTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVECT DRIER AIR, WHILE SUBSIDENT VERTICAL PROFILES
REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR DEEP CONVECTION. AFTERNOON MIXING WILL
KEEP DEWPOINTS SUPPRESSED INTO THE 60S, WITH DAYTIME TEMPS
REMAINING NEAR NORMAL. A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD
DEVELOP EAST OF I-95 THIS AFTERNOON, WHERE PROXIMITY TO THE
FRONT AND SLIGHTLY GREATER MOISTURE MAY SUPPORT LIMITED
DEVELOPMENT.
BY WEDNESDAY, MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AS THE STALLED
BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH MOVES BACK OVERHEAD AND REACTIVATES. LREF
PROBABILITIES INDICATE A 50-70 PERCENT CHANCE OF PWAT VALUES
EXCEEDING 1.75 INCHES. LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL VEER TO THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST, ALLOWING DEWPOINTS AND AFTERNOON HUMIDITY TO
RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME LEVELS. COMBINED WITH
INCREASING UPPER- LEVEL TROUGHING AND MOISTENING PROFILES, THIS
SHOULD SUPPORT INCREASING CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING WED AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK.
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL INCREASE IN
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE, THOUGH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING THE
DAY-TO- DAY TIMING AND LOCATION OF MORE ROBUST CONVECTION. A
WIDESPREAD ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT APPEARS LOW; HOWEVER,
STRONGER TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT EACH
DAY. DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL PRODUCING LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS. OVERALL, DAILY PRECIP
CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN THE HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY RANGE THROUGH
THE WEEK, WITH SOME DECREASE POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD REMAIN NEAR NORMAL, WHILE INCREASING DEWPOINTS WILL
BRING A RETURN TO MORE MUGGY CONDITIONS.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
A STALLED FRONT REMAINS EAST OF THE TERMINALS WHICH HAS LED TO
DRIER AIR IN PLACE WITH DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS RELATIVELY HIGH
EARLY THIS MORNING COMPARED TO THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. THIS LEADS
TO HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD WITH NORTHEASTERLY WINDS, SHIFTING TO MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY THIS EVENING AND A FEW HIGH BASED CUMULUS, AROUND
7KFT DURING THE DAY, DISSIPATING AFTER SUNSET. MOISTURE BEGINS
TO RETURN TONIGHT WHICH COULD LEAD TO BRIEF RESTRICTIONS NEAR
SUNRISE TOMORROW.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...ISOLATED STORMS EACH AFTERNOON WITH
HIGHER COVERAGE OF STORMS EXPECTED BY MIDWEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ND
AVIATION...96
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