707
FXUS62 KCAE 120702
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
302 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
HEAT ADVISORY ISSUED FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN MIDLANDS.
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 06Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL INCREASE
THE RISK OF HEAT-RELATED ILLNESS.
- 2. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY; RAIN CHANCES INCREASE OVER
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL
INCREASE THE RISK OF HEAT-RELATED ILLNESS.
90TH+ PERCENTILE UPPER RIDGING AND MOIST LOW LEVEL SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
FLOW OVER THE STATE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO LEAD TO HEAT INDEX VALUES PEAKING IN THE LOW 100S WITH
SOME VALUES IN THE 105-108F RANGE POSSIBLE. GIVEN THIS WILL BE SOME
OF THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES AND HEAT INDICES SO FAR IN 2026, DECIDED
TO ISSUE A HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN MIDLANDS,
WHERE MOST OF THE HOTTEST HEAT INDICES ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.
ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL LOW CONFIDENCE WE WILL EXCEED CRITERIA (HI
OF 108F-112F), THESE EARLY SEASON HEAT WAVES TEND TO CONTRIBUTE TO A
HIGHER RISK FOR HEAT-RELATED ILLNESS, SO WE ARE MESSAGING EXTREME
CAUTION. ADDITIONALLY, THE EXPERIMENTAL HEAT RISK CATEGORY OF MAJOR
(3 OUT OF 4) WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA TODAY,
WITH EVEN SOME EXTREME (4 OUT OF 4) AREAS STARTING TO SHOW UP OVER
THE WEEKEND PARTICULARLY IN OUR CONCRETE JUNGLES OF COLUMBIA AND
AUGUSTA. ADDITIONAL HEADLINES MAY NEED TO BE CONSIDERED FOR THE
WEEKEND WITH SUBSEQUENT FORECAST PACKAGES.
KEY MESSAGE 2: ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY; RAIN CHANCES INCREASE
OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
A CLASSIC SUMMERTIME CONVECTIVE PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND STRONG
DAYTIME HEATING WILL ALLOW CONDITIONS TO DESTABILIZE EACH AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. OFFSHORE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER
RIDGING WILL GENERALLY WORK AGAINST CONVECTIVE INITIATION AND KEEP
OUR OVERALL COVERAGE LOW. AS SUCH, EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING, WITH SOME
ENHANCEMENT CLOSER TO THE COAST ALONG A SEA BREEZE. COLLIDING
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL ALSO SERVE AS ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF LIFT AND
NEW STORM INITIATION, PARTICULARLY INTO THE EVENING. THIS PATTERN
COULD SUPPORT A FEW STRONGER PULSE-TYPE CELLS LEADING TO DAMAGING
DOWNBURST WINDS BUT A WIDESPREAD THREAT IS UNLIKELY. FOR TODAY, SPC
HAS ISSUED A MARGINAL RISK (1/5) FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
NORTH OF A MCCORMICK-COLUMBIA-SUMTER LINE, WITH A SLIGHT RISK (2/5)
IN THE NORTHERNMOST PORTION OF LANCASTER COUNTY INCLUDING THE
CHARLOTTE METRO.
MOISTURE TRANSPORT THEN INCREASES EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH NAEFS IVT
PERCENTILES OVER 90 PERCENT OF CLIMATOLOGY, AND REMAIN ELEVATED
THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WITH THIS IN MIND, EXPECT
A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN WITH ABOVE NORMAL MOISTURE (AND SUBSEQUENTLY
LOWER TEMPERATURES GIVEN THE HIGHER RAIN CHANCES) TO KICK IN BY
MONDAY AND LAST FOR SEVERAL DAYS.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
CLEAR SKIES ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA AGAIN THIS EVENING AS
EARLIER CONVECTION (PRIMARILY NEAR CAE/CUB) DIMINISHED SEVERAL
HOURS AGO. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTHEAST IS CONTINUING
TO MAINTAIN WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. SURFACE MOISTURE IS
QUITE ROBUST BUT SHOULDN'T RESULT IN GROUND FOG OR RESTRICTIONS
THROUGH SUNRISE. SUNNY SKIES SHOULD GIVE WAY TO CUMULUS AGAIN
THIS AFTERNOON, WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION AGAIN POSSIBLE.
COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED ENOUGH TO KEEP CONVECTION OUT OF
TAFS AT THIS POINT. HOWEVER, WE MAY NEED A TEMPO GROUP OR TWO
LATER ON TO ACCOUNT FOR BRIEF RESTRICTIONS ASSOCIATED WITH ANY
CONVECTION NEAR TAF SITES. BY TONIGHT, CLEAR SKIES SHOULD AGAIN
RETURN.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
DIURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE INTO THIS WEEKEND. GREATER
RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR SCZ016-022-029-031-038-115-116.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...EC
AVIATION...PL
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