619
FXUS62 KCAE 072358
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
758 PM EDT TUE JUL 7 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OR STORMS THIS EVENING HAVE COME TO AN
END FOR MOST, BUT ACTIVITY COULD STILL GRAZE THE CSRA OR THE
VERY NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. AVIATION
DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 00Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. HOT CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA, WITH LIMITED CHANCES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. HIGHER CHANCES OF
RAIN RETURN THIS WEEKEND WITH A SLOW MOVING FRONT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: HOT CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA, WITH
LIMITED CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
HIGHER CHANCES OF RAIN RETURN THIS WEEKEND WITH A SLOW MOVING
FRONT.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA, WITH THE MAIN EXCEPTION BEING NEAR THE I-95
CORRIDOR INTO THE PEEDEE. RADAR SHOWS SOME ACTIVITY PASSING JUST
TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA, NEAR THE CHARLOTTE METRO
AREA. THERE IS ALSO A SMALL CLUSTER OF CELLS MOVING TOWARD THE
LOWER CSRA. MESOANALYSIS INDICATES DRY AIR HAS MOVED INTO THE
MID-LEVELS ACROSS THE AREA, WHICH HAS LIMITED CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND LEADS TO SOME UNCERTAINTY WHETHER THAT
SMALL CLUSTER OF ACTIVITY HEADING TOWARD THE CSRA WILL SURVIVE
INTO THE AREA. SO, THERE REMAINS A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS
IN THE LOWER CSRA AND THE VERY NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA THIS EVENING, OTHERWISE THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC NEAR FL WILL
BUILD NORTHWARD, SHIFTING THE FOCUS OF DIURNAL CONVECTION
FARTHER WEST THROUGH THE WEEK. MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE
TO RISE INTO WED/THU, RESULTING IN A GRADUAL DECREASE IN
CONVECTION. A FEW EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES WITHIN A WEAK UPPER TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE CAROLINA'S ON THURSDAY COULD SUPPORT AN
UPTICK IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS, THOUGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW.
FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT THIS
WEEKEND, BRIBING ANOTHER INCREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA.
AS HAS BEEN EMPHASIZED OVER THE PAST WEEK, THE ONGOING HEAT
REMAINS A CONCERN, PARTICULARLY FOR LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVE
LIMITED RELIEF FROM THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN 3-6 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH SATURDAY,
WITH HEIGHT INDICES REACHING THE LOW TO MID-100S. MOST
LOCATIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA (108F), SO
NO HEAT ADVISORIES ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. CONTINUE TO
PRACTICE HEAT SAFETY, ESPECIALLY WITH PROLONGED HEAT EXPECTED TO
PERSIST. PLEASE REMAIN DILIGENT IF YOU HAVE OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES
PLANNED.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH
00Z THURSDAY.
THE ATMOSPHERE HAS STABILIZED SOME AND SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR HAS
WORKED IN BEHIND EARLIER CONVECTION OVER PARTS OF THE EASTERN
MIDLANDS, AND AS A RESULT DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. WINDS MAY NOT FULLY DECOUPLE
OVERNIGHT, WITH LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL
THEN INCREASE FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST BY LATE MORNING, WITH A
FEW GUSTS UPWARDS OF 15-20KT POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, BUT ALL OF THE HIGH-RESOLUTION MESOSCALE
MODELS INDICATE THE COVERAGE SHOULD BE TOO LIMITED FOR MENTION
IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...DAILY RAIN CHANCES AND POSSIBLE
RESTRICTIONS CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ND/29
AVIATION...JAQ
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