564
FXUS62 KCAE 191044
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
644 AM EDT SAT SEP 19 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 12Z TAFS. OTHERWISE, NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- 2. COOLER AND DRIER AIR RETURNS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
BUT FORECAST UNCERTAINTY REMAINS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE ITS SLOW SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION
BEFORE STALLING OVER THE FORECAST AREA LATER TODAY. INCREASING
MOISTURE AND WEAK FORCING WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER CHANCE OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.
CONVECTION SHOULD BE HIGHEST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA, WHERE PWATS OF 1.8-2 INCHES AND AMPLE
DIURNAL HEATING WILL HELP MAINTAIN UNSETTLED CONDITIONS. WHILE A
LOW-END THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND MINOR FLOODING
REMAINS, MODEST INSTABILITY AND WEAK DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SHOULD
LIMIT THE SEVERE THREAT.
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND LOOKS SIMILARLY UNSETTLED, WITH
ADDITIONAL SPOTTY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE PERSISTS INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK, WITH PWATS REMAINING AROUND 120-150% OF NORMAL.
DESPITE LIMITED LARGE-SCALE FORCING, THE ANOMALOUSLY MOIST AIR
MASS, COMBINED WITH UNSEASONABLE HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS, WILL
SUPPORT DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH AFTERNOON
THROUGH TUESDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2: COOLER AND DRIER AIR RETURNS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK BUT FORECAST UNCERTAINTY REMAINS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS
UNCERTAINTY INCREASES REGARDING THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS
EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW IS FORECAST
TO EJECT FROM THE NORTHEAST GULF AND LIFT ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS EVOLUTION WILL ALLOW
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE NORTHEAST AND RIDGE
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE COAST, POTENTIALLY ESTABLISHING A COLD AIR
DAMMING WEDGE.
HOWEVER, THE CLASSIC SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED
OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION TYPICALLY FAVORED WITH THIS SETUP DOES
NOT APPEAR LIKELY TO DEVELOP UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEK. INSTEAD,
DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO ADVECT FROM THE NORTHWEST, WHICH SHOULD
LIMIT PRECIPITATION CHANCES LATE NEXT WEEK. REGARDING
TEMPERATURES, BLENDED GUIDANCE FAVORS NEAR- NORMAL HIGHS DURING
THIS PERIOD; HOWEVER, IQRS INDICATE SUBSTANTIAL SPREAD, WITH THE
DISTRIBUTION SKEWERED TOWARD COOLER SOLUTIONS. WE WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR TRENDS AS THE DOMINANT SUMMER PATTERN MAY FINALLY
BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN.
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
POSSIBLE BRIEF MVFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS TOWARDS SUNRISE
THIS MORNING, THEN EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS THE REMAINDER OF
THE DAYTIME PERIOD. ADDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY
MORNING.
SITES CURRENTLY VFR, WITH SOME MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER
ONGOING. THE CLOUDS HAVE SHOWN SIGNS OF THINNING AND DISSIPATING,
SO CONTINUED TO INCLUDED A TEMPO THROUGH 13Z FOR 4SM BR AT ALL
SITES. CLOUD CEILINGS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS,
WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID-LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
WHILE MUCH OF SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE VFR, GUIDANCE IS SHOWING
SOME INDICATIONS OF LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS BECOMING POSSIBLE TOWARDS 08Z SUNDAY. FOR NOW WILL
KEEP WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL BUT AGS SUNDAY MORNING.
THERE SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES ARE MORE LIKELY. AT ALL OTHER
LOCATIONS, WILL BEGIN TO INCLUDE MENTION OF SOME SCATTERED LOW
CLOUDS AND SOME 6SM BR AROUND 08Z TO INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR
RESTRICTIONS TO BEGIN OVERNIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR LATER
NEAR TERM GUIDANCE AND ADJUST AS NECESSARY.
WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE, THEN
INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST BY LATE MORNING, WITH SPEEDS
BETWEEN 5-8 KNOTS ANTICIPATED. AS A WEAK FRONT SINKS SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME
ISOLATED CONVECTION, AND HAVE INCLUDED MENTION OF PROB30 FOR
STORMS, ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS ON THE LOWER SIDE AT THIS
TIME. ANY SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE WEAKENING/DISSIPATING
BY 03Z.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND/OR STORMS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. MORNING CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS
ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ND
AVIATION...73
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