909
FXUS62 KCAE 240001
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
701 PM EST SAT FEB 23 2019
SYNOPSIS
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL REMAIN IN THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. A
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY WITH A DRY AIR MASS
OVERSPREADING THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON. DRY HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE IN CONTROL MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
REGIONAL RADARS CURRENTLY INDICATING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. STILL, THERE IS SOME
LIGHT DRIZZLE AND FOG THAT WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE EARLY TONIGHT.
BEST CHANCE FOR RAINFALL WILL REMAIN WEST AND NORTH OF THE CWA
THIS EVENING.
THE WEDGE/WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD TONIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. EXPECT FOG WHICH MAY BECOME
DENSE AT TIMES DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT WITH THE FRONT IN THE
AREA. AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD AND WINDS PICK UP, FOG SHOULD
DISSIPATE TOWARDS DAYBREAK. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST THAT
THE MAIN LINE OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL BE
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNRISE
SUNDAY MORNING. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS MAINTAIN SURFACE-BASED LI
VALUES ABOVE ZERO THROUGH THE NIGHT. ELEVATED INSTABILITY ALSO
APPEARS LIMITED, SO BELIEVE THUNDERSTORM THREAT IS LOW. EXPECT
STEADY OR RISING TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS
FARTHER NORTHWARD.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY MORNING WITH A
RELATIVELY THIN LINE OF SHOWERS EXPECTED AS IT PASSES. DESPITE ABOVE
NORMAL PWAT VALUES ABOVE 1.5 INCHES ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT,
925MB/850MB FLOW WILL BE FROM THE WEST AND DOWNSLOPING A BIT WHICH
WILL LIMIT RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS TO LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH.
COLDER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE LACKING AS VERY WARM 850MB
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MIXING DOWN WITH THE DRIER AIR BUILDING IN
BEHIND THE FRONT RESULTING IN WELL ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE 70S. THE WIND WILL BE ONE OF THE HIGHER IMPACT FEATURES OF THE
DAY AS WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO THE WEST BEHIND THE FRONT AND
INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30-35 MPH AT TIMES
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS. A LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND WILL
DEVELOP BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND
SOME HIGHER CLOUDS MOVE INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL IN THE 60S BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH TUESDAY BEING
SLIGHTLY WARMER BUT NO RAIN IN THE FORECAST EITHER DAY.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE THINKING REGARDING THE EXTENDED FORECAST TODAY
WITH MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUING TO SHOW SOME GENERAL CONSENSUS
IN THE OVERALL UPPER PATTERN. GENERALLY WESTERLY 500MB FLOW EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH DIFFICULT TO TIME SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH
THE FLOW WITH THE GFS BEING A BIT MORE WET WITH A FEW SHORTWAVES
BRINGING RAIN TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY WITH A STRONGER DIGGING TROUGH AND FRONT PROVIDING ANOTHER
CHANCE OF RAIN ON SATURDAY. THE ECMWF SHOWS A DRIER FORECAST WITH
SUPPRESSING THE INITIAL SHORTWAVES TO THE SOUTH BUT ALSO SHOWS THE
STRONGER SHORTWAVE FOR SATURDAY WITH RAIN CHANCES. WILL MAINTAIN A
PERSISTENCE FORECAST UNTIL THERE IS BETTER CERTAINTY. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD GENERALLY BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD
ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG THE GFS/ECMWF
ON THURSDAY WITH MAX TEMPS RANGING FROM LOWER 70S TO MID 50S.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
EXPECT IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 12-15Z...IMPROVING TO MVFR
15-18Z AND VFR/BREEZY AFTER 18Z. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL EXIST
AT ALL TERMINALS AFTER 03Z...LINGERING THROUGH 15-17Z.
DEEP LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE IN CURRENT COLD AIR WEDGE WITH
STATIONARY FRONT IN SOUTHERN GEORGIA...POISED TO MOVE NORTHWARD
TONIGHT. SE-SW LOW-LEVEL JET WILL BEGIN TRANSPORTING WARMER AIR
NORTHWARD AFTER 06Z WHICH WILL STRENGTHEN WARM AIR OVERRUNNING
OF THE COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT IFR
CONDITIONS IN STRATUS/FOG/DRIZZLE AT ALL TERMINALS WITH LIFR
LIKELY AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES ON ITS WAY NORTHWARD,
STARTING AT AGS/DNL FIRST. AS THE 30-45 KT LOW-LEVEL JET
ESTABLISHES AFTER 03Z EXPECT LLWS.
SATELLITE PROGNOSIS AND MODELS AGREE WITH ARRIVAL OF A DECENT
COLD FRONT AROUND 10Z AT AGS/DNL AND 12-13Z AT CAE/CUB/OGB. A
SHARP INCREASE IN WINDS, A SSW-W WINDSHIFT AND SHOWERS WILL
OCCUR WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. STABILITY PROFILES DO NOT SUPPORT
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. WITH THINNING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE,
AND G15-25KT WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT, CIG/VIS WILL IMPROVE TO
MVFR AND THEN VFR AFTER 15-17Z.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST IN THE
REGION MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND DIMINISHED
WINDS. WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS COULD OCCUR WEDNESDAY ASSOCIATED
WITH AN ONSHORE FLOW OR POSSIBLE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT JUST
SOUTH OF THE REGION.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
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