159
FXUS62 KCAE 140632
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
232 AM EDT SUN JUN 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
LOWERED DEW POINTS FOR THIS AFTERNOON, LEADING TO SLIGHTLY LOWER
HEAT INDEX VALUES, BUT STILL OVER 100F FOR MANY. AVIATION
DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 06Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TODAY, CAUSING AN
ELEVATED RISK OF HEAT-RELATED ILLNESS.
- 2. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE TODAY, A FEW OF WHICH COULD
BE STRONG. UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUING INTO THE WORK WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TODAY, CAUSING AN
ELEVATED RISK OF HEAT-RELATED ILLNESS.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS THE
REGION AGAIN TODAY AS AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST. THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS TROUGHING ADVANCES EASTWARD. 850-MB
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST NEAR THE 90TH PERCENTILE SUNDAY AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING FRONT. BREEZY CONDITIONS IN THE AFTERNOON ARE
EXPECTED TO HELP MIX DOWN SOME LOWER DEW POINTS, SO LOWERED
THEM A FEW DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. DESPITE LOWERING
THE DEW POINTS, HEAT INDEX VALUES ON SUNDAY ARE FORECAST TO BE
IN THE 100F-105F RANGE ONCE AGAIN, REMAINING BELOW THAN OUR
HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 108F. ADDITIONALLY, INCREASING CHANCES
FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION SUNDAY DURING PEAK HEATING
SHOULD HELP LIMIT MAX TEMPS AND REDUCE THE DURATION OF THE MOST
INTENSE HEAT. EVEN THOUGH OUR HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE MET TODAY, IT IS IMPORTANT TO EXERCISE CAUTION IF
SPENDING TIME OUTDOORS TO REDUCE THE RISK OF DEALING WITH A
HEAT-RELATED ILLNESS. TEMPERATURES AFTER TODAY DROP SOME DUE TO
THE RIDGE BREAKING DOWN, THEN HOVER AROUND NORMAL FOR MUCH OF
THE WEEK AHEAD.
KEY MESSAGE 2: THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE TODAY, A FEW OF
WHICH COULD BE STRONG. UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUING INTO THE
WORK WEEK.
THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT APPEARS SOMEWHAT MORE FAVORABLE FOR
ORGANIZED CONVECTION FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH
IMPROVED FORCING AND INCREASED SHEAR DUE TO AN APPROACHING FRONT.
0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 20-30 KT, COMBINED WITH INCREASED
INSTABILITY COULD SUPPORT A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. STORM MODE
IS EXPECTED TO CONSIST OF A FEW LINEAR SEGMENTS AND MULTICELL
CLUSTERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT, WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AS THE
PRIMARY THREAT, MAINLY IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. AFTER THE FRONT PASSES TODAY/TONIGHT, MONDAY
LOOKS TO HAVE LOWER COVERAGE IN SHOWERS OR STORMS. BEYOND THAT,
PERSISTENTLY HIGH IVT (90TH PERCENTILE PER NAEFS) SHOULD AID IN
KEEPING THINGS UNSETTLED THROUGH MID WEEK. BY THE END OF THIS
UPCOMING WEEK, IT APPEARS THAT ANOTHER FRONT MAY MAKE IT INTO
THE AREA & ANOTHER FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
OUTSIDE OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION, VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNRISE THEN WITH ANOTHER
HOT AND HUMID DAY EXPECTED, DIURNAL CUMULUS SHOULD DEVELOP AND
SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED, SOME POSSIBLE
SEVERE. SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED TO BE STRONGER TODAY AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH
WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS PICKING UP TO AROUND 10-12 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS AFTER 15Z. ADDED IN A TEMPO GROUP FOR
AFTERNOON CONVECTION. WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE WITH SUNSET AT AROUND
5 TO 6 KNOTS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...GREATER RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED
EARLY NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH POSSIBLE ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS WITH
A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...29
AVIATION...23
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