510
FXUS62 KCAE 241740
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
140 PM EDT THU SEP 24 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
LOWERED TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED POPS IN PARTS OF THE
MIDLANDS THIS AFTERNOON BASED ON RADAR TRENDS. AVIATION
DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 18Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH
PERIODS OF SHOWERS IN THE MIDLANDS AND PEE DEE THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY RETURN TO NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES
NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND,
WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS IN THE MIDLANDS AND PEE DEE THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY RETURN TO NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES NEXT
WEEK.
MIDDAY RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS AN AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN
MOVING THOUGH THE MIDLANDS AND PEE DEE. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD END
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR BEGINS
TO MOVE INTO THE REGION AND THE CAD REGIME STARTS TO BREAK
DOWN. DESPITE RAIN CHANCES DIMINISHING, MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING CLEARING OUT TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WERE LOWERED FURTHER,
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS SEEING RAIN, WITH VALUES MAINLY IN THE 60S.
A PLEASANT FIRST WEEKEND OF AUTUMN IS EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES INTO THE REGION AND THE WEDGE COMPLETELY ERODES. MODELS
CURRENTLY HAVE THE WEDGE RETREATING FROM OUR AREA EARLY FRIDAY,
THOUGH GUIDANCE TENDS TO HANDLE THE PROGRESSION OF SUCH EVENTS
POORLY. AS SUCH, WOULD EXPECT THE START OF FRIDAY TO REMAIN ON
THE COOLER AND CLOUDIER SIDE. AFTER THAT, MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL WITH HIGHS REBOUNDING EACH DAY AND
TRENDING CLOSER TO NORMAL AND EVENTUALLY ABOVE NORMAL. MAX
TEMPS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 70S AND
LOWER 80S, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 50S. CAA
WILL HELP DIP DEWPOINTS INTO THE 40S AND 50S, MAKING IT FEEL
BEAUTIFUL FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. LOOKING AHEAD, DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WARM BACK INTO THE MID-80S BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK AS THE PATTERN LOOKS TO EVOLVE TOWARD SOMETHING MORE DAMP.
HOWEVER, DETAILS REMAIN UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
IFR/MVFR RESTRICTIONS LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE FIRST 18
HOUR TAF PERIOD BEFORE RETURNING TO VFR THE LAST 6 HOURS.
WEDGE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY WITH MVFR
CIGS LIKELY CONTINUING FOR ALL TAF SITES. IT IS LIKELY CAE, CUB,
AND OGB EXPERIENCE IFR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON DUE TO RECENT
RAINFALL. PERSISTENT NNE- NE WINDS AROUND 10 KT ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 15-20
KTS. SCATTERED SHOWER CHANCES LINGER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
BEFORE DRYING OUT MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-26. MODERATE
RAINFALL WILL OCCASIONALLY REDUCE VISIBILITIES THROUGH 20Z WHEN
THE ACTIVITY PUSHES EAST. SOME SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS IS
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AS DRIER AIR STARTS TO MOVE IN MIXING WITH
THE MOIST AIR AND BREAKING THE CLOUDS. HOWEVER, BETTER
CONDITIONS AND POTENTIALLY VFR ARE EXPECTED BY FRIDAY MORNING.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MOST GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT WITH
A RETURN TO VFR AS SKIES CLEAR FOR MOST OF THE WEEKEND.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...7
AVIATION...NS
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