580
FXUS62 KCAE 131021
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
621 AM EDT SUN SEP 13 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 12Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY, WITH A BACKDOOR
FRONT USHERING IN DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY, WITH
A BACKDOOR FRONT USHERING IN DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
CONVECTION FROM EARLIER THIS WEEK HAS DIMINISHED FOR THE MOST
PART, SHIFTING EASTWARD GRADUALLY THIS EVENING. FORCING FOR
ASCENT IS SLOWLY DOING THE SAME AS THE 500 HPA TROUGH ACROSS THE
TN VALLEY LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE APPALACHIANS. A SHARP
GRADIENT IN PWS IS NOTED TO OUR WEST, AND SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY. THE FEATURE THAT IS
FORECAST TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER OVER THE NEXT WEEK IS EXPECTED
TO BEGIN BUILDING TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY. PERSISTENT TROUGHING
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS IS EXPECTED TO YIELD STRONG HEIGHT
RISES ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS, RESULTING IN ONE OF THE
STRONGER 500 HPA RIDGES ON RECORD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR (HEIGHTS
ARE FORECAST TO EXCEED NAEFS CLIMATOLOGY FOR SEVERAL DAYS). ON
THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THIS, A STOUT SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO
ROUND INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS, WITH STRONG CONVERGENCE
BETWEEN THE BACKSIDE OF THIS AND THE TRAILING RIDGE. THIS
CONVERGENCE IS FORECAST TO USHER IN A SEASONALLY STRONG SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM INTO THE NORTHEAST, RIDGING DOWN THROUGH
THE MID-ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THIS
SURFACE HIGH IS FORECAST TO MAKES ITS WAY TOWARDS US VIA
BACKDOOR FRONT ON MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY, WITH NEAR
NORMAL HIGHS & BELOW NORMAL DEWPOINTS AND PWS BEHIND IT. MONDAY
WILL BE QUITE WARM AHEAD OF THIS FRONT, WITH HIGHS FORECAST IN
THE MID 90S. BUT TUES/WED/THUR SHOULD FEATURE HIGHS IN THE UPPER
80S/LOWER 90S, DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 60S DURING THE AFTERNOONS
(MAYBE EVEN UPPER 50S!), AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 60S.
OVERALL, COMPARED TO OUR WEATHER IN RECENT WEEKS, IT LOOKS
FAIRLY NICE FOR SEVERAL DAYS THIS WEEK. BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK
AND NEXT WEEKEND, MOISTURE SHOULD RETURN AND INCREASE PRECIP
CHANCES ALONG WITH IT.
AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
EARLY MORNING IFR/LIFR STRATUS THROUGH 14/15Z.
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS HAS CLEARED OUT AND STRATUS AND
SOME PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED IN THE PRESENCE OF AMPLE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE DUE IN PART TO YESTERDAY'S RAINFALL. DECENT
MIXING WITH SW WINDS AROUND 5 KTS AT THE SURFACE HAS HINDERED
WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT EXCEPT AT THE MORE SHELTERED SITES.
IFR/LIFR CEILINGS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE UNTIL 14Z AT ALL TAF
SITES.
MORNING RESTRICTIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH 14-16Z TODAY
BEFORE VFR RETURNS WITH 5-8 KT WINDS OUT OF THE WEST. A FEW
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON, BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW
TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. THE MOST LIKELY SITE TO
RECEIVE RAINFALL WOULD BE OGB SINCE MOISTURE WILL BE DEEPER TO
THE EAST. PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY MONDAY MORNING BUT
MOISTURE IS VERY SHALLOW. AGS AND OGB COULD HAVE SOME BRIEF VIS
RESTRICTIONS AROUND SUNRISE BUT WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS SEEM
UNLIKELY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RAIN UNLIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK
BUT THERE WILL STILL BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR EARLY MORNING
FOG/STRATUS PERSISTS AT LEAST FOR EARLY THIS WEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...PL
AVIATION...CJR
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