023
FXUS62 KCAE 300536
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
136 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 06Z TAF.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. DRIER CONDITIONS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK BEFORE RAIN
CHANCES RAMP BACK UP THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SUMMERLIKE PATTERN EXPECTED AGAIN BY THE END OF THIS FORECAST
PERIOD.
DISCUSSION
- 1. DRIER CONDITIONS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK BEFORE RAIN
CHANCES RAMP BACK UP THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SUMMERLIKE PATTERN EXPECTED AGAIN BY THE END OF THIS FORECAST
PERIOD.
THE FORECAST LARGELY REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM THE PAST DAY OR SO
AS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HONE IN ON THE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 7
DAYS. THE WELL-ADVERTISED COLD FRONT IS PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA
AS THIS IS BEING TYPED, WITH A MUCH DESERVED TWO-DAY BREAK FROM
THE HUMIDITY EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. DEWPOINTS WERE DOWN INTO
THE 50S TO OUR NORTH THIS AFTERNOON, AND WITH PWS LESS THAN 1"
EXPECTED TODAY AND FRIDAY, WE ARE FORECASTING DEWPOINTS TO DROP
INTO THE 50S HERE! WHILE HIGHS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL (91F-94F)
BOTH DAYS, IT WILL BE QUITE NICE TO NOT HAVE OPPRESSIVE HUMIDITY
OUT THERE.
AS WE GET INTO THE WEEKEND, THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS ON TRACK TO
DELIVER SOME RAINFALL TO THE REGION. THE ANOMALOUS RIDGE/TROUGH
YING AND YANG THAT HAS BEEN DOMINATING THE WEATHER OVER THE
CONUS THIS WEEK WILL BEGIN TO RETROGRADE SLIGHTLY AS WE HEAD
INTO THE WEEKEND. A SHARP SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIG
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS THIS OCCURS, WITH A BROAD SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPING OVER THE OH VALLEY. WHILE WE ARE SITTING WITHIN ~10TH
PERCENTILE PWS THE NEXT TWO DAYS, THERE REMAINS A ROBUST PLUME
OF PWS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MS RIVER VALLEY REGION. AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW DEVELOP AND DIG
SOUTHEASTWARD, SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST TO RESULT IN
THIS RESERVOIR OF MOISTURE TO ADVECT EASTWARD AND OVERSPREAD THE
AREA THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. 2"+ PWS & SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT IS QUITE A GOOD SYNOPTIC PATTERN FOR SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS TIME OF YEAR. GIVEN WE
HAVE STRUGGLED TO GET RAIN RECENTLY, IT IS PROPER TO HOLD SOME
APPREHENSION REGARDING RAIN CHANCES. HOWEVER, THE SYNOPTIC
PATTERN IS FAVORABLE FOR NUMEROUS, EFFICIENT SHOWERS/STORMS
BEGINNING SATURDAY EVENING AND LASTING THROUGH MONDAY. THE
TROUGH LOOKS TO WEAKEN SLOWLY AS WE GO THROUGH NEXT WEEK BUT
THIS PLUME OF PWS APPEARS THAT IT WILL LARGELY REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AS SUCH, DAILY SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL REMAIN A THREAT AS THE CONVECTIVE TEMP IN THAT
ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE FAIRLY LOW. TEMPS APPEAR LIKE THEY WILL BE
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN THIS PERIOD DEPENDING ON HOW
MUCH CONVECTION DEVELOPS ON A DAILY BASIS. ADDITIONALLY, SEVERE
WEATHER GENERALLY SEEMS UNLIKELY IN THIS KIND OF SET UP GIVEN
COPIOUS MOISTURE PROFILES.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
SECONDARY FRONT PUSHED THROUGH COLUMBIA AROUND 04Z WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 5 TO 7 KNOTS BEHIND IT AND THESE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED ALL TERMINALS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD, THOUGH IT
MAY TURN MORE NORTHWESTERLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH DEEP
MIXING EXPECTED. OTHERWISE, DRIER AIR SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE
OVER THE AREA WITH NO CONVECTION ANTICIPATED AND LOWER CLOUD
COVER EXPECTED.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RAIN AND RESTRICTIONS BECOME
INCREASINGLY LIKELY THIS WEEKEND.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...PL
AVIATION...23
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