152
FXUS62 KCAE 081141
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
741 AM EDT FRI AUG 8 2025
SYNOPSIS
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT ARE
EXPECTED TO RETURN TO NORMAL IN THE LONG TERM. ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY BUT
RAIN CHANCES RAMP BACK UP SUNDAY AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS DEEPER
MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE SOUTHEAST.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- UNSEASONABLY STRONG WEDGING CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA, WITH
COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED
UNPRECEDENTED COLD-AIR DAMMING CONTINUES TO ENVELOPE THE REGION.
WHAT MORE IS THERE TO SAY ABOUT THE HISTORICITY OF THE CURRENT
WEATHER SETUP? IN THE HISTORY OF CAE'S OBSERVATIONS, THERE HAS BEEN
ONLY ONE OTHER INSTANCE OF TEMPERATURES REMAINING BELOW 80F FOR THIS
LONG (NOW GOING ON 150+ HOURS) IN AUGUST. AND THAT WAS IN MID/LATE
AUGUST! THE CULPRIT CONTINUES TO BE PERSISTENT, ANOMALOUS HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN US AND RIDGING SOUTHWARD
ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS MOUNTAINS. DRY AIR
ALOFT OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS HAS HELPED MAINTAIN LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE, WITH SUBSIDENCE HELPING TO LOCK IN THE LOW CLOUDS AND
KEEP US SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL. WV IMAGERY THIS
MORNING SHOWS A ROBUST VORTICITY MAX PASSING OVER THE AREA
CURRENTLY. WITH SUBSIDENCE LIKELY TO AGAIN TAKE HOLD ON ITS
BACK SIDE. WIDESPREAD LOW-CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH AT LEAST MID-MORNING, WITH THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE
WEDGE IS AIDED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED SUBSIDENCE AND CONTINUES TO
OUTPERFORM THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. BASICALLY EVERY PIECE OF
GUIDANCES SUGGESTS THAT WE WILL BREAK OUT OF THE WEDGE TODAY AND
SEE HIGHS RETURN TO THE LOW 80S. I AM SKEPTICAL OF THIS AT THIS
POINT SINCE GUIDANCE HAS TRIED TO DO THIS MULTIPLE DAYS IN A
ROW NOW (A TYPICAL BIAS IT HAS WITH COOL SEASON WEDGES). THE
PATTERN ITSELF DOESN'T REALLY LEND ITSELF TO CLEARING A WEDGE
OUT, EITHER, AS WE HAVE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN AIRMASS OR A
FRONT TO INITIATE STRONG SURFACE MIXING. SO THERE IS A PRETTY
GOOD CHANCE WE JUST REMAIN CLOUDY AND COOL AGAIN TODAY.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WISE, THE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS AGAIN AND PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS OF 5-10
MPH. RAIN IS UNLIKELY GIVEN THE TROUGH AXIS ATOP US OR TO OUR
EAST & PWS BELOW 1.75" ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH THE DAY,
BUT PATCHY DRIZZLE CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
ITS HARD TO SAY WHAT TONIGHT LOOKS LIKE AS IT WILL TOTALLY
DEPEND ON WHETHER WE BREAK OUT OF THE WEDGE OR NOT TODAY. LOOK
FOR QUIET WEATHER, THOUGH, WITH CLOUDS AND LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER
60S.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS
ONSHORE LOW-LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS LATE SATURDAY AS THE LOW
OFFSHORE LIFTS NORTH. THIS WILL LEAD TO WARM, MOIST ADVECTION
OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH PWAT VALUES BACK ABOVE 2 INCHES
ALONG THE COAST BY THE END OF THE SHORT TERM. WEAK RIDGING
LINGERING OVER THE FA AND WARM ADVECTION OVER TOP OF IT WILL
LEAD TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SURELY KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW
NORMAL. ALTHOUGH THE LOSS OF NE FLOW COULD ALLOW FOR SOME
EROSION OF THE LOW CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND THEREFORE
WARMER DAYTIME TEMPS THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
80S. MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL LEAD TO SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN
THE AFTERNOON WITH HIGHEST COVERAGE ALONG THE COAST. CAMS FOCUS
CONVECTION IN THIS AREA SOLELY BUT IT SEEMS THAT THERE WILL
STILL BE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FA AS WELL. CONTINUED MOISTURE
ADVECTION AND A WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE MAY ALLOW FOR CONVECTION TO
LINGER OVERNIGHT.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK
- NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY AND EARLY NEXT WEEK
GLOBAL MODEL ENSEMBLES GENERALLY FAVOR A TRANSITION FROM WEAK
TROUGHING OVER THE REGION TO A STRENGTHENING RIDGE IN THE LONG
TERM. THE NET RESULT IS FOR A GRADUAL RETURN TO TYPICAL
MIDSUMMER WEATHER BY THE END OF THE LONG TERM WITH TEMPERATURE
WARMING BACK UP TO NEAR NORMAL. AS THE LOW OFFSHORE LIFTS AWAY
FROM THE REGION, A STRONG ONSHORE FLOW COMPONENT DEVELOPS WITH
DEEP MOISTURE SURGING INTO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS PATTERN SUPPORTS
A HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS FOR LATE THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK. AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE AREA NEXT WEEK
AND MOISTURE ADVECTION WEAKENS, WE SHOULD RETURN BACK TO A MORE
NORMAL CONVECTIVE PATTERN OF SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
IFR OBSERVED AT ALL TAF SITES CURRENTLY, LIKELY CONTINUING
THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY BUT POTENTIALLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
LOW CIGS ARE STILL BEING OBSERVED AT ALL TAF SITES TO BEGIN THIS
FORECAST PERIOD, WITH ALL TERMINALS UNDER IFR CONDITIONS. THERE
ALSO HAS BEEN SOME PERIODIC DRIZZLE AND FOG, REDUCING VISIBILITY
AT TIMES. EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT 15Z
OR SO, WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR. MVFR TO LOW END VFR
CONDITIONS ARE THEN ANTICIPATED FOR THE AFTERNOON. THERE REMAINS
QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH WHETHER WE'LL SEE VFR TODAY OR
NOT AT THIS POINT. ASSUMING WE DON'T CLEAR OUT TODAY, EXPECT LOW
CIGS TO RETURN OVERNIGHT ONCE AGAIN. WINDS ARE GENERALLY
EXPECTED TO BE NORTHEASTERLY AT 5-10 KTS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE
EACH DAY WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE
WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
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