969
FXUS62 KCAE 232345
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
745 PM EDT THU JUL 23 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 00Z TAF UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE AS A SLOW-MOVING FRONT APPROACHES.
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: RAIN CHANCES INCREASE AS A SLOW-MOVING FRONT
APPROACHES. UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK.
THE ANTICIPATED COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SAG
SOUTHWARD, EVENTUALLY STALLING NEAR OR OVER THE FA. A MODEST
MOISTURE FETCH FROM TS BERTHA WELL TO OUR SW WILL HELP ADVECT
TROPICAL MOISTURE TO THE REGION. OVERALL, THIS SLOW-MOVING
PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY.
PWATS ARE CURRENTLY OVER 2" AMID DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW, WITH
RELATIVELY SKINNY CAPE PROFILES, AND DEEP WARM CLOUD DEPTHS.
MEAN FLOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE FRONT, FAVORING
TRAINING CONVECTION AND HIGHLY EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCTION.
HI-RES GUIDANCE DEPICTS MORE ORGANIZED SHOWERS AND CLUSTERS OF
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING TONIGHT, PRIMARILY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
MIDLANDS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES WITHIN THESE BANDS COULD
QUICKLY BOOST STORM-TOTAL AMOUNTS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE ANOTHER MORE
ORGANIZED ROUND OF STORMS DEVELOPS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE SHIFTING SOUTH TOWARD THE
CENTRAL/EASTERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA.
GIVEN THE EXPECTED CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION AND TROPICAL
ENVIRONMENT, RAINFALL TOTALS ARE LIKELY TO VARY CONSIDERABLY
OVER RELATIVELY SHORT DISTANCES. THE 3 DAY RAINFALL FORECAST
FOCUSES THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS AND PEE DEE
REGION. FURTHER SOUTH, THE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE
INTERMITTENT WITH LOWER AMOUNTS. REPEATED ROUNDS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO SATURDAY,
ALTHOUGH COVERAGE SHOULD BECOME MORE SCATTERED AS THE FRONT
WEAKENS AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATES. INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND
RAINFALL SHOULD PROVIDE SOME RELIEF FROM THE HEAT, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
LOWER 90S AND POTENTIALLY REMAINING IN THE UPPER 80S WHERE
RAINFALL OCCURS. A MORE TYPICAL LATE-JULY PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO
RETURN BY NEXT WEEK, BRINGING BACK HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS
WITH DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
INCREASING CHANCES OF RESTRICTIONS TONIGHT IN THE CENTRAL
MIDLANDS WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS LATE TONIGHT AND PERIODS OF RAIN
MOVING IN. OTHER LOCATIONS ACROSS THE CSRA AND SOUTHERN MIDLANDS
MAY REMAIN MOSTLY VFR.
SURFACE FRONT/BOUNDARY IS MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL MIDLANDS THIS
EVENING, WITH FRONT SHOWING UP ON RADAR AND THE ASSOCIATED WIND
SHIFT SHOWING UP IN SURFACE OBS. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD BE ABLE TO
PUSH JUST SOUTH OF CAE/CUB TOWARDS 01Z THEN SLOW EVEN MORE. AT
THIS TIME DO NOT HAVE IT MAKING IT TO OGB/AIK AND AREAS FURTHER
SOUTH OVERNIGHT. ALONG AND NORTH OF THIS FRONT, WINDS WILL TURN
NORTHEASTERLY, WHILE AREAS SOUTH OF IT REMAIN SOUTHERLY. SPEEDS
MAINLY AROUND 5 KNOTS, WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT EXPECTED. AREAS OF SHOWERS AND EVEN A THUNDERSTORM
WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT, WITH CAE/CUB SEEING THE
GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR RAINFALL THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. IN
ADDITION, GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW MVFR/IFR CEILINGS
DEVELOPING NORTH OF THE FRONT. SOUTHWARD, MORE LIKELY THAT VFR
WILL BE SEEN FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD, WITH BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS
POSSIBLE AT AREAS CLOSER TO THE FRONT. ALL THIS TO SAY THERE
REMAINS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AND INTO
FRIDAY DUE TO THE FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION. THERE WILL
CONTINUE TO BE RAIN CHANCES ALONG ALL TAF LOCATIONS ON FRIDAY,
WITH HIGHEST POTENTIAL FROM 18Z-00Z IT APPEARS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS FROM SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY INTO THE WEEKEND FOR ALL TAF SITES.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...7/ND
AVIATION...73
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page