676
FXUS62 KCAE 312356
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
756 PM EDT SUN MAY 31 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
REMOVED WORDING REGARDING THIS AFTERNOON IN KEY MESSAGE 1.
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE THROUGH
TUESDAY, WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE TONIGHT.
- 2. RELATIVELY COOL TEMPS TODAY AND TUESDAY, FOLLOWED BY A
WARMING TREND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE
THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE TONIGHT.
RADAR SHOWS ON-GOING ISENTROPIC SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
MIDLANDS THIS EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT REMAINS SOUTHWEST OF THE
CSRA, BUT PWAT'S HAVE ALREADY REBOUNDED TOWARD 1.90-2.0" ALONG
A LINE EXTENDING FROM AUGUSTA TO ORANGEBURG TOWARD MANNING. THIS
COMES IN RESPONSE TO AS SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY DROPPING INTO THE
SOUTHERN TENNESSEE VALLEY. PWAT'S NORTH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
LINE SHOULD CONTINUE TO RAISE TOWARD 1.75-1.90" AND LINGERING
300-305K ISENTROPIC LIFT COUPLED WITH PVA FROM THE SHORTWAVE ARE
EXPECTED TO YIELD ADDITIONAL SHOWER/WEAK STORM ACTIVITY TONIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY. WITH THE FA BEING NORTH OF THE FRONT,
INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO BE FAIRLY MEAGER (MUCAPE UNDER 700
J/KG), BUT DEEP MOISTURE/WARM CLOUD LAYER DEPTHS SHOULD YIELD
EFFICIENT WARM RAIN PROCESSES IN ANY ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
THIS EFFICIENT RAINFALL COULD YIELD ISOLATED SPOTS OF FLASH
FLOODING ONCE AGAIN. CAM GUIDANCE HAS BEEN WOBBLING A BIT IN
TERMS OF WHERE THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SPOTS OF FLASH
FLOODING IS, BUT CURRENTLY FAVOR AREAS IN BETWEEN THE I-20 AND
I-95 CORRIDOR. THIS AXIS MAY STILL WOBBLE A BIT MORE HEADING
INTO TONIGHT.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS THEN EXPECTED TO WAVER SOME TOMORROW
AND TUESDAY BEFORE A SHARPER TROUGH DIGS THROUGH THE EASTERN US,
AIDING IN PUSHING THE FRONT OUT OF THE AREA. WITH THIS FRONT IN
PLACE, RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY, BUT PWATS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LOWER THAN THEY HAVE BEEN, SO THE FLOODING THREAT
DECREASES AFTER TODAY. THEN, MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR
THE REST OF THE WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 2: RELATIVELY COOL TEMPS TODAY AND TUESDAY,
FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND.
TEMPERATURES TODAY REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA, WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S AT THIS TIME.
ONLY A FEW LOCATIONS HAVE REACHED THE 70S SO FAR. THEREFORE,
HAVE LOWERED HIGH TEMPS FOR TODAY TO GENERALLY THE MID 70S.
AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAVERS NORTH TOMORROW, THEN SOUTH AGAIN
FOR TOMORROW NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, TEMPS REBOUND FOR TOMORROW TO
NEAR NORMAL BEFORE DROPPING AGAIN ON TUESDAY. AFTER TUESDAY, A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS ANTICIPATED THE REST OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
LOW CEILINGS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS TONIGHT....
MVFR CEILINGS CONTINUE AT THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING, WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS, MAINLY PASSING NEAR OGB. WITH LINGERING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND A FRONT REMAINING IN THE AREA, RAIN SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED
TO LOWER FURTHER TONIGHT, WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT MONDAY MORNING.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING BUT THIS POTENTIAL IS OMITTED FROM THE TAFS AT THIS TIME
DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND LOCATION.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE INTO TUESDAY,
THEN DRIER AIR COULD BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE REGION MID-WEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DH/29
AVIATION...7
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