827
FXUS62 KCAE 200006
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
806 PM EDT FRI JUN 19 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MINOR UPDATES TO KEY MESSAGE 1. AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR
00Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. AFTER A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THIS EVENING, A MORE
TYPICAL SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN RETURNS THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: AFTER A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THIS EVENING, A
MORE TYPICAL SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN RETURNS THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED AS EXPECTED ALONG
A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY THIS EVENING. A FEW STRONGER WIND GUSTS MAY
OCCUR, BUT OVERALL IMPACTS FROM THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MINIMAL.
MOST CAM SOLUTIONS HAVE THIS ACTIVITY MOVING FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST AND DISSIPATING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, AND ESPECIALLY BY
MIDNIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT INTO SATURDAY WITH MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO RECOVER
SUNDAY AS A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH, BRINGING DIURNAL
RAIN CHANCES BACK. TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
NEAR NORMAL IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S.
THERE IS DECENT AGREEMENT AMONGST GLOBAL MODELS THAT MULTIPLE
WEAK DISTURBANCES ARE PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH MAINLY ZONAL FLOW
INTO THE MID WEEK, BRINGING DIURNAL SHOWER/STORM CHANCES EACH
DAY AND TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S. A ROBUST UPPER RIDGE
IS EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION LATE THIS
WEEK, BRINGING A TROUGHING PATTERN TOWARD EASTERN CONUS WHERE A
MORE AMPLIFIED SYSTEM MAY BE ABLE TO SNEAK INTO THE FA, BUT
THERE REMAINS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD ON TIMING.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
A FRONT CURRENTLY PUSHING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST IS BEGINNING TO
STALL OUT OVER OUR AREA. A FEW ISOLATED POPUP SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN SOME LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON.
ANY ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET AND IS NOT EXPECTED
TO IMPACT THE TERMINALS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS
EVENING, BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. DRIER LOW-LEVEL
AIR FILTERING INTO THE REGION SHOULD LIMIT FOG DEVELOPMENT,
SUPPORTING CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS.
ON SATURDAY, NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
AROUND 5-7 KT BY MID-MORNING. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST, WITH ONLY PASSING THIN CIRRUS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION TO
RETURN SUNDAY, ALTHOUGH COVERAGE WILL BE ISOLATED WITH HIGHER
COVERAGE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...EC/DH
AVIATION...ND
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