428
FXUS62 KCAE 250617
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
217 AM EDT SAT JUL 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR THE 06Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE TODAY, MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN
FORECAST AREA.
- 2. NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH SUNDAY THEN A
MORE SUMMER LIKE PATTERN RETURNS NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
- 1. RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE TODAY, MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN
FORECAST AREA.
RADAR TONIGHT SHOWS A FEW AREAS OF LIGHT RAINFALL MOVING
THROUGH THE CWA. SOME OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT RAIN
WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHEASTERN MIDLANDS TOWARDS DAYBREAK SO
MAINTAINED A CHANCE POPS IN THOSE LOCATIONS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
THE CHANCE OF RAIN CONTINUES TODAY AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND AN
UPPER TROUGH AXIS SWING THROUGH THE REGION BUT EXPECT THE AXIS
OF HEAVIER RAINFALL TO SHIFT TOWARDS THE COASTAL PLAIN. THE
LATEST WPC ERO LINES UP WITH THIS AND HAS A SLIGHT RISK (2/4)
FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND POINTS EAST
WITH A MARGINAL (1/4) RISK ELSEWHERE. KEPT CHANCE POPS ACROSS
THE EASTERN CWA WHERE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS MOST LIKELY.
RAIN CHANCES SHOULD BE EVEN LOWER ON SUNDAY WITH MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON MONDAY.
- 2. NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH SUNDAY THEN A
MORE SUMMER LIKE PATTERN RETURNS NEXT WEEK.
THE COMBINATION OF THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH EXTENSIVE
CLOUDS AND INTERMITTENT RAINFALL WILL KEEP MAX TEMPERATURES NEAR
TO BELOW NORMAL THROUGH SUNDAY. THE COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL EXPAND AND STRENGTHEN INTO THE PLAINS
STATES BY SUNDAY RESULTING IN DOWNSTREAM UPPER TROUGHING ALONG
THE EAST COAST. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN SOME DRIER AIR WORKING
INTO THE REGION SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, AIDED BY
DOWNSLOPING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM
BACK TO NEAR AND ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
HIGHS BACK IN THE MID TO POSSIBLY UPPER 90S BY MID WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
MVFR/IFR CEILING RESTRICTIONS LIKELY THIS MORNING, LIFR POSSIBLE.
A SURFACE BOUNDARY HUNG UP OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND AMPLE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE SUPPORTS CEILING RESTRICTIONS THROUGH THE MORNING
AND POSSIBLY INTO THE AFTERNOON. MODELS HAVE CONSISTENTLY SHOWN
IFR RESTRICTIONS AT THE TAF SITES BETWEEN 09Z AND 14Z. PERIODS
OF LIFR WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. CEILINGS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR
AROUND 15Z AND LINGER THROUGH 18Z. HOWEVER, CEILING
RESTRICTIONS COULD PERSIST LONGER THAN MODELS SUGGEST GIVEN THE
NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY OVER THE AREA.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
AROUND 12Z. THIS MAY PROMOTE CONVECTION ALONG THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER BY THE TIME COVERAGE INCREASES IN THE AFTERNOON, THE
BULK OF THE ACTIVITY MAY BE TO THE EAST OF THE TAF SITES.
THEREFORE NO CONVECTION IS MENTIONED IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AND MAINLY OUT OF THE
W OR NW BUT WILL BE VARIABLE MOST OF THE DAY AS THE BOUNDARY
REMAINS DRAPED OVER THE AREA.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...EARLY MORNING RESTRICTIONS REMAIN
ELEVATED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. DRIER WEATHER
EXPECTED EARLY THIS COMING WEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...7
AVIATION...CJR
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