371
FXUS62 KCAE 220007
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
807 PM EDT FRI AUG 21 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE CWA
UNTIL 9 PM EDT. THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND
COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. 18Z
AVIATION.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. SEVERE WEATHER AND FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE TODAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: SEVERE WEATHER AND FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE
TODAY.
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS WINDING DOWN ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS EVENING. THERE WERE NUMEROUS STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON, WITH THE BULK OF
THEM SHIFTING EASTWARD AS OF THIS WRITING. THERE IS
AN INTERESTING CLUSTER OF STORMS DEVELOPING IN THE RAIN COOLED
AIR IN CALHOUN/ORANGEBURG/CLARENDON COUNTIES RIGHT NOW, SO THE
STORMS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST FOR A BIT IN OUR EASTERN COUNTIES.
BUT IN GENERAL, THINGS SHOULD BE WINDING DOWN OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS.
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG IN ON SATURDAY, WITH THE AXIS SHIFTING
FARTHER EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW DIRER AIR TO BEGIN MOVING INTO
THE WESTERN PORTION OF OUR FA THIS WEEKEND. HOWEVER, DEEPER
MOISTURE AND MODERATE CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY ALONG THE COAST
COULD SUPPORT ANOTHER THREAT ALONG THE COAST FOR MICROBURSTS
AND DAMAGING WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON, PARTICULARLY NEAR THE I-95
CORRIDOR. BEYOND THAT, A MORE SEASONAL PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP, WITH TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL, INCREASING
HUMIDITY, AND DAILY CHANCES FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE PRESENT AT ALL TAF SITES CURRENTLY AS
CONVECTION AND STRATIFORM RAINFALL PUSHES EASTWARD AND OUT OF
THE FORECAST AREA. IFR AND LIFR CEILINGS (AND POSSIBLY
VISIBILITIES) ARE FORECAST LATER TONIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY.
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO PUSH EASTWARD OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA,
LEAVING THE TAF SITES SITTING UNDERNEATH VFR CLOUD COVER. WHILE
THERE WAS A LOT OF RAINFALL IN SEVERAL PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA, THE HEAVIEST RAIN GENERALLY AVOIDED ALL OF THE TAF SITES.
DESPITE THAT, THERE IS STILL COPIOUS MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA
AND THE WHOLE AREA IS BASICALLY SITTING WITHIN RAIN COOLED AIR.
THE BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTHWARD TONIGHT, MAYBE SPARKING
A FEW SHOWERS CLOSER TO COLUMBIA AND CUB AS IT MOVES OUT OF THE
UPSTATE. THINK THIS THREAT IS LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP IT OUT OF THE
TAFS AT THIS POINT. THE REAL THREAT TO AVIATION TONIGHT APPEARS
TO BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF CEILING OR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
LATER TONIGHT. WEAK SUBSIDENCE ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO ACT ON A
MOISTURE RICH BOUNDARY LAYER AND LIKELY YIELD LOW CEILINGS. VIS
RESTRICTIONS ARE TOUGHER TO PIN DOWN. THE SITES THAT ARE MORE
PRONE TO FOG IN REGULAR CONDITIONS ARE MORE LIKELY TO SEE FOG
WITH THE STRATUS BUT THE STRATUS SHOULD BE MORE PREDOMINANT AT
ALL SITES REGARDLESS. EXPECTING THIS TO PERSIST THROUGH ABOUT
LATE MORNING, WITH CLOUDS CLEARING BY EARLY AFTERNOON SATURDAY.
WESTERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES REMAIN INTO
THE WEEKEND, WITH SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD CONVECTION EXPECTED.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ND/PL
AVIATION...PL
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page