145
FXUS62 KCAE 192327
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
727 PM EDT MON OCT 19 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
HIGH TEMPS FOR THE WEEKEND HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY COOLER.
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 00Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK WITH
TEMPERATURES THAT WARM TO NEAR NORMAL BY THE MID WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK
WITH TEMPERATURES THAT WARM TO NEAR NORMAL BY THE MID WEEK.
THERE REMAINS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS WEEK AND
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. IN A WORD, THE FORECAST IS DRY. REINFORCING
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION THROUGH
THE MID WEEK AS A GENERAL TROUGHING PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS. THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD IS
FORECAST TO DIGGING FURTHER SOUTH LATE IN THE WEEK. BY THE LATE
WEEK, A DEEP TROUGH SHOULD PUSH INTO THE WESTERN US, AMPLIFYING
A RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY AND SLOWLY PUSHING
THIS RIDGE SLOWLY EASTWARD. OVERALL, THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN
FAVORS THE PERSISTENCE OF A DRIER AIRMASS OVER THE REGION WHERE
LREF PROBABILITIES FOR PWAT'S LESS THAN 0.50" AND DEW POINTS
LESS THAN 45F EXCEED 60-80% THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. AS THE RIDGE SLOWLY WORKS TOWARD THE FA, AFTERNOON
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH NEAR NORMAL BY THE MID
TO LATE WEEK. HOWEVER, GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE DIGGING UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD COULD AMPLIFY IN RESPONSE TO
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPSTREAM FEATURES, RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPS FOR THE WEEKEND. LATEST TEMPERATURE SPREAD HAS
INCREASED OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF RUNS FOR FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND, SUGGESTING HIGHER UNCERTAINTY. NONETHELESS, THE WEEK
STILL LOOKS DRY.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY
WITH CLEAR SKIES AND CONTINUED NORTHERLY FLOW. WINDS HAVE
DIMINISHED TO 5 KNOTS OR LESS AND SHOULD REMAIN SO OVERNIGHT
BEFORE PICKING BACK UP TO AROUND 7 TO 9 KNOTS AFTER 15Z FROM THE
NORTH TO NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. CANNOT TOTALLY RULE
OUT A FEW GUSTS 15Z-19Z BUT THEY SHOULD BE INTERMITTENT. FOG NOT
EXPECTED TO BE A CONCERN GIVEN THE VERY DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE
AND SOME BOUNDARY LAYER WIND.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT AVIATION CONCERNS.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...29
AVIATION...23
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