318
FXUS62 KCAE 101011
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
611 AM EDT THU SEP 10 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH INCREASING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
LITTLE HAS CHANGED TO THE FORECAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
GLOBAL ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO FAVOR RIDGING TO OUR EAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH A STRONGER RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHEAST
FOR NEXT WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL SUPPORT SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND DEEP MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WITH PWAT
VALUES NEAR OR ABOVE 2 INCHES. THIS SETUP TENDS TO GIVE THE
FORECAST AREA SCATTERED, DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS. CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE MAY BE A LITTLE HIGHER ON SATURDAY WITH SOME POTENTIAL
SHORTWAVE ENERGY SET TO RIDE UP OVER THE RIDGE INTO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS. WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS GENERALLY NOT
EXPECTED BUT THE BIGGEST THREATS BEING ISOLATED DOWNBURST WINDS
AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. HEIGHT RISES EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOULD WORK
TO SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WITH JUST ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ABOUT 3 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD, BUT STILL COOLER THAN THE FIRST WEEK OF
SEPTEMBER.
AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE THROUGH 14Z.
THE PRIMARY CONCERN THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS WILL BE LOW
CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING AT ALL TERMINALS. GUIDANCE HAS
BACKED OFF ON POTENTIAL IMPACTS, ESPECIALLY REGARDING
CONDITIONS AT CAE/CUB/AIK BUT BRIEF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AROUND
DAYBREAK ARE STILL POSSIBLE. ANY LOW STRATUS OR FOG SHOULD
DISSIPATE AND TRANSITION TO SCT CUMULUS BY MIDDAY AS SOUTHERLY
WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 5 KNOTS. DIURNAL CONVECTION CHANCES
RETURN LATER TODAY, BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW FOR INCLUSION
AT THE TERMINALS EXCEPT AT OGB WHERE A PROB30 WAS MAINTAINED.
PASSING HIGH CLOUDS AND LIGHT WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AFTER SUNSET AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF
PERIOD. HOWEVER A 10 TO 20 KT LLJ SHOULD HINDER FOG DEVELOPMENT
TONIGHT.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RAIN CHANCES INCREASE INTO THE
WEEKEND ALONG WITH A HIGHER PROBABILITY FOR MORNING FOG/STRATUS
CONCERNS DUE TO HIGHER ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CJR
AVIATION...7
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