243
FXUS62 KCAE 120006
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
806 PM EDT SAT JUL 11 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT HAS ENDED FOR THIS EVENING. AVIATION
DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 00Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. SCATTERED STORMS EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY WITH HEAVY
RAIN AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE IN
STRONGEST STORMS, ESPECIALLY TOMORROW.
- 2. HOT AND HUMID THIS WEEKEND WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: SCATTERED STORMS EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY WITH HEAVY
RAIN AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE IN
STRONGEST STORMS, ESPECIALLY TOMORROW.
AN ACTIVE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WITH SEVERE WEATHER HAS
WOUND DOWN AS ONLY LINGERING SHOWERS PERSIST NEAR THE WESTERN
CSRA AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN MIDLANDS. HEADING INTO THE OVERNIGHT,
CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN THE MOIST
AIRMASS WITH THE UPPER LOW NEARING THE REGION, BUT CONFIDENCE IN
THESE DEVELOPING IS RATHER LOW. ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN TOWARD
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISK TOMORROW AFTERNOON/EVENING.
TOMORROW, AN UPPER LOW APPROACHES THE AREA WITH A FAIRLY SIMILAR
ENVIRONMENT TO THAT OF TODAY EXPECTED WITH STRONG
DESTABILIZATION AND POTENTIAL FOR WET MICROBURSTS ONCE AGAIN
WITH A SLIGHT RISK CONTINUING ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
DEPENDING ON THE EVOLUTION OF CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48
HOURS, WE MAY NEED TO MONITOR SOME SPOTS FOR POTENTIAL FLASH
FLOODING, ALTHOUGH STORM MOTION SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO PREVENT
SIGNIFICANT FLOODING CONCERNS OUTSIDE OF ANY TRAINING.
MONDAY, A COLD FRONT DROPS TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA, PROVIDING
ADDITIONAL FORCING FOR CONVECTION, ALTHOUGH LINGERING STORMS
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING MAY PREVENT AS SIGNIFICANT
DESTABILIZATION WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. WILL NEED TO
CONTINUE TO MONITOR A POTENTIAL FLASH FLOOD THREAT, KEEPING IN
MIND THIS WILL DEPEND SIGNIFICANT ON ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS FROM
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. IN GENERAL, ENSEMBLE MEANS HAVE TRENDED
MUCH SLOWER WITH THE ADVANCEMENT OF DRY AIR INTO THE AREA NEXT
WEEK AND CONDITIONS MAY REMAIN UNSETTLED INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WITH ENSEMBLE MEANS KEEPING PWATS GREATER THAN 2 INCHES
THROUGH TUESDAY AND WITH ONLY A SOMEWHAT MARGINAL DECREASE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2: HOT AND HUMID THIS WEEKEND WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK.
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED TOMORROW WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES LIKELY REACHED EARLY AFTERNOON FOR MANY LOCATIONS
BEFORE THE ONSET OF SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. HEAT INDICES LIKELY
STILL RISING INTO THE TRIPLE DIGITS SUNDAY WITH ANY DECREASE IN
TEMPERATURES OFFSET BY THE INCREASE IN DEW POINTS. BLENDED
GUIDANCE HAS CREEPED UP SLIGHTLY IN THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS ON
TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN
THE FRONT LINGERING NEAR THE AREA, PREVENTING A SIGNIFICANTLY
COOLER AIR MASS FROM MOVING IN WITH A DECENT TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT EXPECTED FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. STILL EXPECT BELOW
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY, WHICH FEELS LIKE A WIN.
THIS WILL LIKELY BE SHORT LIVED, HOWEVER, AS THE AIR MASS
LIKELY RECOVERS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY THAT RETURNS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
ONLY A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING WITH
THE SEVERE THREAT ENDED AND THUNDERSTORMS NOW OFFSHORE. LIGHT
WINDS AND CONVECTIVE CLOUD DEBRIS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE NIGHT,
WITH CIGS LIKELY BETWEEN 12KFT AND 20KFT. GUIDANCE IS NOT KEEN
ON VSBY RESTRICTIONS SUNDAY MORNING LIKELY DUE TO SOME ONGOING
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING, SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED THEM IN THE TAFS AT
THIS TIME. WIDESPREAD CUMULUS AROUND 5KFT SHOULD REDEVELOP BY
15Z SUNDAY MORNING. ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IS
THEN EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON, SO HAVE INCLUDED VCTS AND A
PROB30 FOR -TSRA AT ALL TERMINALS. WINDS COULD AGAIN GUST TO
30-40 KTS IN THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS. OUTSIDE OF CONVECTIVE
GUSTS THOUGH, SURFACE WINDS SHOULD BE LESS THAN 10 KTS FROM THE
SW-NW.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A GOOD CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN FOG
MONDAY MORNING BEHIND A FRONTAL PASSAGE.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DH/96
AVIATION...EC
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