508
FXUS62 KCAE 201811
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
211 PM EDT FRI MAR 20 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER INTRODUCED FOR THE NORTHERN AREA
TOMORROW. ISOLATED STORMS MAY PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL OR
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. UPDATED 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS IN THE NORTHERN AREA.
- 2. WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE A FRONT MOVES IN NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS IN THE
NORTHERN AREA.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY WITH UPPER RIDGING GENERALLY HANGING ON. INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL LEAD TO INCREASING
MOISTURE INTO TOMORROW WITH THE HREF MEAN INDICATING BY THE
AFTERNOON, PWATS WILL RISE TO ABOVE AN INCH. A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE
INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TOMORROW WHICH HAS TRENDED A BIT
DEEPER OVER THE LAST COUPLE DAYS. THIS WILL LEAD FOR THE POTENTIAL
FOR ISOLATED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW MID
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING WITH HIRES GUIDANCE GENERALLY FAVORING THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. SPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED THIS
AREA IN A MARGINAL SEVERE RISK. WHILE THE HIGHEST MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES (GREATER THAN 7C/KM) MAY REMAIN NORTHWEST OF OUR
AREA, WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS AROUND 9KFT, DEEP LAYER SHEAR NEAR
30 KNOTS, AND HIGH HREF PROBABILITY OF SBCAPE GREATER THAN 500
J/KG (AROUND 70-80%), THERE REMAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO
PRODUCE HAIL, WITH A CEILING OF AROUND UP TO A QUARTER SIZED IN
THE STRONGEST STORMS. WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES LIKELY
AND RELATIVELY HIGH DCAPE INDICATED BY HIRES GUIDANCE, ALSO
REMAINS POSSIBLE THAT STRONGEST STORMS PRODUCE ISOLATED DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT,
ALTHOUGH MAY LINGER AFTER SUNRISE WITH THE FORCING PROVIDED BY
THE SHORTWAVE.
KEY MESSAGE 2: WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE A FRONT MOVES IN NEXT WEEK.
VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR THIS
WEEKEND WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES AS UPPER RIDGING STRENGTHENS OVER THE AREA. NAEFS
MEAN CONTINUES TO INDICATE 850MB TEMPERATURES RISE TO ABOVE THE
97.5TH OR 99TH PERCENTILE. WHILE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH DAILY
RECORDS THROUGH MONDAY, BLENDED GUIDANCE INDICATES HIGHS WILL BE
15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGE, GENERALLY IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S. FRONT WILL LIKELY MOVE IN LATE MONDAY, LEADING TO
TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO SEASONAL AVERAGE FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK, ALTHOUGH NOT A PARTICULARLY COLD AIR MASS IS EXPECTED
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH FROST OR FREEZE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE
END OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT.
A BIT OF GROUND FOG HAS DEVELOPED AT OGB THIS MORNING DESPITE
THE RELATIVELY DRY AIR IN PLACE. THE GROUND FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE
QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE. OTHERWISE, LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY AT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS AS THE SURFACE HIGH SAGS A
BIT SOUTHWARD. ANY CLOUDS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS SHOULD BE OF
THE THIN CIRRUS VARIETY AND NOT CAUSE ANY IMPACTS AT THE
TERMINALS. IF WINDS DECOUPLE LATE TONIGHT AT OGB OR AGS, THERE
MIGHT BE SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG AGAIN, BUT THERE WILL BE LIGHT
SOUTHWEST WINDS THAT SHOULD KEEP MOST PLACES MIXED ENOUGH TO
AVOID THAT PROBLEM.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... ON SATURDAY, A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
MOISTURE COMBINED WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CAUSE
A FEW MORE CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON, WITH POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORM, BUT CHANCES REMAIN LOW FOR ANY IMPACT
AT THE TERMINALS. A MORE SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH ON MONDAY, WITH A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE FOR
RESTRICTIONS. OVERALL, CONDITIONS WILL BE MOST LIKELY VFR FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...96
AVIATION...CAL
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