639
FXUS62 KCAE 221241
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
741 AM EST THU JAN 22 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 12Z TAFS. AN WIDE SPECTRUM OF
FREEZING RAIN IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA, FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH AS GUIDANCE TRENDS CONTINUE. WINTER STORM WATCHES HAVE
EXTENDED ACROSS AREAS NORTH OF I-20.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) THE CHANCE FOR AN IMPACTFUL WINTER STORM CONTINUES,
FOCUSING NORTH OF I-20 LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
- 2) AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM, TEMPS STEADILY MODERATE THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK WITH SOME RAIN CHANCES ON THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: THE CHANCE FOR AN IMPACTFUL WINTER STORM CONTINUES,
FOCUSING NORTH OF I-20 LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
OVERVIEW: THE THREAT FOR AN IMPACTFUL ICE EVENT NORTH OF I-20
CONTINUES, AS GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED MORE NORTH AND WARMER WITH THIS
SYSTEM. WHILE CONFIDENCE REMAINS THAT AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20
WILL SEE SOME FREEZING RAIN, THE CHANCES FOR A SIGNIFICANT ICE STORM
HAVE DECREASED. HOWEVER, A REMINDER THAT ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN
INCH OF FREEZING RAIN CAN CAUSE NOTABLE TRAVEL IMPACTS.
POTENTIAL IMPACTS: A SPECTRUM OF IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WITH A STEEP GRADIENT IN FREEZING RAIN AMOUNTS LIKELY.
THE POTENTIAL REMAINS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS AND PEE DEE FOR
AN IMPACTFUL ICE STORM FROM THIS SYSTEM DESPITE THE TRENDS IN
GUIDANCE. PRIMARILY LATE SATURDAY AND INTO SUNDAY, NOTABLE IMPACTS
REMAIN POSSIBLE IN THESE LOCATIONS, WITH POTENTIAL FOR OVER 0.25" OF
FREEZING RAIN CAUSING VERY DIFFICULT TRAVEL, POWER OUTAGES AND
DOWNED TREES. CONFIDENCE HAS DECREASED IN THIS POTENTIAL JUST ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR, BUT AT LEAST SOME FREEZING RAIN DOES
STILL APPEAR LIKELY LEADING TO SOME TRAVEL CONCERNS; AGAIN, ONLY A
FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF FREEZING RAIN CAN QUICKLY CAUSE DRIVING
AND TRAVEL IMPACTS.
TRENDS AND FORECAST CHALLENGES: THE WARM, NORTHERLY TREND IN
GUIDANCE THAT THE ECE STARTED TO CAPTURE 36 HOURS AGO APPEARS VERY
LEGITIMATE, AS GUIDANCE UNIVERSALLY HAS TRENDED PERSISTENTLY AND
SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER AND NORTHWARD IN TEMPS AND QPF TOTALS;
ADDITIONAL RECON DATA IN THE 00Z DATA INCREASES CONFIDENCE THAT THIS
TREND HAS STAYING POWER. THIS TREND IS DRIVEN BY THE MORE AGGRESSIVE
PHASING OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM EJECTING TROUGH AND THE NORTHERN
STREAM DIVING SHORTWAVE, WHICH THEN DRAMATICALLY AMPLIFIES THE
PATTERN DOWNSTREAM AND GREATLY INCREASES FLOW BELOW 500MB. THIS
INCREASED FLOW ALLOWS FOR A TRULY REMARKABLE WAA SETUP, EXTENDING
WELL INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC LATE SATURDAY AND INTO SUNDAY; TYPICALLY
GUIDANCE UNDER-DOES WAA LEADING UP TO AN EVENT, SO THIS IS ANOTHER
FACTOR FAVORING THE LEGITIMACY OF THIS TREND. STRONG CAD WILL STILL
DEVELOP INITIALLY LATE SATURDAY AS THIS WAA DRIVES SUBSTANTIAL
MOISTURE ADVECTION NORTH, WITH A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN EXPECTED
ACROSS MUCH OF OUR AREA BUT WITH A RANGE OF IMPACT POTENTIAL; ITS
IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT EVEN THE WARMEST GUIDANCE HAS THIS PERIOD OF
FREEZING RAIN AND THIS CAD WILL BE IMPRESSIVE, AT LEAST INITIALLY.
SO EVEN IF SOME NORTHERLY TREND CONTINUES, AREAS NORTH OF I-20 ARE
STILL EXPECTED TO SEE IMPACTFUL FREEZING RAIN. AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH
OF I-20 ARE WHERE QUESTIONS ARISE AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT
ICE EVENT HAS DECREASED, BUT AT LEAST SOME ICING IS STILL PROBABLE
FOR MUCH OF THE MIDLANDS. BY LATER IN THE DAY SUNDAY, THE WARM TREND
REALLY COMES TO FRUITION WITH THE 60-70 KNOT 850MB JET ERODING THE
CAD AND DRIVING A VERY STRONG WARM FRONT NORTHWARD, LIKELY INTO THE
SOUTHERN EXTENT OF OUR AREA. QUESTIONS REMAIN IN HOW MUCH THE CAD
DOME ERODES, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20, AND WHETHER OR NOT
THOSE AREAS GET ABOVE FREEZING. A TREMENDOUS TEMP GRADIENT SUNDAY IS
CONSISTENT IN ALL GUIDANCE NOW, WITH EVEN SOME CAPE DEVELOPING SOUTH
OF THE WARM FRONT BUT THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS STILL AROUND FREEZING.
SUMMARY: AREAS NORTH OF I-20 SHOULD REMAIN PREPARED FOR AN IMPACTFUL
WINTER STORM, WITH FREEZING RAIN LIKELY LATE SATURDAY AND INTO
SUNDAY. A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN, WITH IMPACTS TO TRAVEL, REMAINS
LIKELY SOUTH OF I-20 BUT CONFIDENCE IS DECREASING IN THE POTENTIAL
FOR A SIGNIFICANT ICE STORM IN THOSE LOCATIONS.
KEY MESSAGE 2: TEMPS STEADILY MODERATE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK WITH SOME RAIN CHANCES ON THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. THIS
IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY AHEAD OF THE MAIN WEEKEND SYSTEM
IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE AREA, BRINGING CHANCES FOR SOME
RAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. ANY PRECIPITATION THAT
DOES FALL DURING THIS TIMEFRAME VERY LIKELY WILL FALL AS RAIN AS
TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO BE WAY TOO WARM TO BE FROZEN.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD.
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, LEADING
TO LOW TO MID-LEVEL CLOUDS. A FEW SHOWERS ARE SHOWING UP ON
RADAR, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT ANY OF THESE SHOWERS WILL
AFFECT THE TAF TERMINALS. THAT SAID, A PASSING SHOWER CANNOT BE
RULED OUT. CLOUDS LOWER EVEN MORE OVERNIGHT, WITH MVFR CEILINGS
BECOMING MORE LIKELY AFTER AROUND 07Z. SOME DRIZZLE OR LIGHT
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN OVERNIGHT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN LIGHT 5-8 KTS OR LESS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, GENERALLY
FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING
RESTRICTIONS AS EARLY AS TOMORROW, BUT ESPECIALLY SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON FOR SCZ016-018-020>022-029-115-116.
GA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON FOR GAZ040.
DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION...29
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