511
FXUS62 KCAE 231018
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
618 AM EDT THU APR 23 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. UPDATED FOR THE 12Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AND PERIODIC SMOKE IMPACTS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY.
- 2. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK,
BUT MEANINGFUL DROUGHT RELIEF REMAINS UNCERTAIN.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AND PERIODIC
SMOKE IMPACTS WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY.
A DRY AIR MASS PERSISTS OVER THE REGION WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY
POTENTIALLY DROPPING BELOW 20 PERCENT BRIEFLY TODAY AND BELOW 30
PERCENT FRIDAY. MUCH OF THE AREA REMAINS IN SEVERE TO EXTREME
DROUGHT. DESPITE THE LACK OF STRONGER WINDS, THE COMBINATION OF LOW
RH AND DRY FUELS WILL MAINTAIN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER EACH AFTERNOON.
HRRR SMOKE GUIDANCE ONCE AGAIN FAVORS LINGERING SMOKE OVER THE AREA
TODAY AS WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT SMOKE
FROM WILDFIRES IN SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND NORTHERN FLORIDA OVER
THE AREA. SOUTH CAROLINA DEPARTMENT OF ENVIRONMENTAL SERVICES
ISSUED AN AIR QUALITY ALERT FOR TODAY FOR THE CSRA AND MIDLANDS
OF SOUTH CAROLINA. IN ADDITION, THE SC FORESTRY COMMISSION
CONTINUES A BURN BAN UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.
KEY MESSAGE 2: RAIN CHANCES INCREASE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK, BUT MEANINGFUL DROUGHT RELIEF REMAINS UNCERTAIN.
A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS THE UPPER RIDGE
BREAKS DOWN AND THE BERMUDA HIGH WEAKENS. HREF MEMBERS ARE
INDICATING SOME ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY FRIDAY, ALTHOUGH LOOKING AT
FORECAST SOUNDINGS, EVEN WITH A BIT OF AN INCREASE IN PWATS,
SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL DRY AIR WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL OF ANY RAIN
FROM REACHING THE SURFACE. HIGHER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND POTENTIAL
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT, ALTHOUGH MODEL
CONSENSUS IS THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL BE RELATIVELY PROGRESSIVE,
LIMITING TOTAL RAINFALL. ISOLATED CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH ANOTHER FRONT LIKELY APPROACHING TUESDAY
LEADING TO HIGHER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS. WHILE
THERE WILL BE SEVERAL CHANCES FOR RAIN, THE DROUGHT IS LIKELY NOT
GOING TO BE SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED ANYTIME SOON AS 20-30% OF GEFS
MEMBERS AND LESS THAN 10% OF EC ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOWING HIGHER THAN
AN INCH OF RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD AND WE WILL NEED MUCH MORE THAN
THAT TO ELIMINATE THE DROUGHT ACROSS THE AREA.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF BRIEF, PERIODIC DIPS
INTO MVFR FOR SMOKE.
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST IS EXPECTED AS SMOKE IS FORECAST
TO HANG AROUND TODAY. WE ARE ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE, WITH WIND TRAJECTORIES OUT OF THE SOUTH
AND SOUTHWEST GENERALLY. SMOKE IS EXPECTED TO BE THE BIGGEST
ISSUE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST
THAT MORE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TODAY. EXPECT A GENERAL VIS OF
6SM AND HAZE, WITH SOME DIPS INTO MVFR THROUGH THE DAY. THIS
OCCURRED YESTERDAY & IT IS EXPECTED IT WILL BE A PROBLEM AGAIN
TODAY. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD,
OSCILLATING BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KNOTS. EXPECT WINDS TO RELAX A BIT
TONIGHT BUT STILL REMAIN UP AROUND 3-5 KNOTS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PERIODS OF VSBY RESTRICTIONS DUE TO
SMOKE ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. OTHERWISE,
DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD LIMIT FOG DEVELOPMENT. RAIN CHANCES
INCREASE THIS WEEKEND, WHICH MAY INTRODUCE RESTRICTIONS AT
TIMES, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND COVERAGE REMAIN LOW.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ018-
020>022-025>031-035-037-038-041-135>137.
GA...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GAZ064-065.
DISCUSSION...96
AVIATION...PL
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