071
FXUS62 KCAE 110552
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
152 AM EDT FRI SEP 11 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MINIMAL CHANGE TO KEY MESSAGES.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH INCREASING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO BE FAIRLY HIGH REGARDING THE FORECAST
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A SLOW MOVING TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE WEST, WITH RICH MOISTURE
ADVECTING NORTHWARD INTO THE FA AS A RESULT. PWS ARE NEAR 2"
ALREADY, WITH >2" PWS EXPECTED INTO SATURDAY. WITH CONVECTIVE
TEMPS FORECAST IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S BOTH DAYS, ALONG
WITH FORCING AND PLENTY OF INSTABILITY, SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY BOTH THIS AFTERNOON AND
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE MOISTURE RICH PROFILE SHOULD KEEP THE
SEVERE THREAT RELATIVELY AT BAY ACROSS THE AREA. DCAPE AND TEI
VALUES ARE PRETTY LOW FOR STRONG DOWNBURSTS BOTH DAYS, WITH
PRECIP LOADING THE LIKELY CULPRIT FOR ANY STRONGER STORMS.
SBCAPE VALUES DO LOOK QUITE HIGH THIS AFTERNOON, SO TODAY IS
PROBABLY THE BETTER OF THE TWO DAYS FOR ANY STRONG TO SEVERE
CONVECTION. EVEN STILL, THE CHANCES FOR A SEVERE STORM SHOULD BE
RELATIVELY SEASONAL IN NATURE. HIGHS BOTH DAYS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE MODULATED BY CONVECTIVE COVERAGE.
BEGINNING SUNDAY, A RIDGE ALOFT IS FORECAST TO BEGIN BUILDING
EASTWARD AND SHIFTING THE TROUGH AXIS TO OUR EAST. PRECIP
CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AS A RESULT, WITH ONLY
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE EXPECTED. THE RIDGE IS THEN
FORECAST TO CONTINUE BUILDING INTO THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK, WITH EXTREME 500 HPA HEIGHTS (NAEFS FORECAST MAX
HEIGHTS IN THE SEPTEMBER 1979-2009 CLIMATOLOGY!) SET UP ACROSS
THE REGION. ONE OF THE INTERESTING THINGS THAT MAY RESULT FROM
THE INTENSITY OF THE RIDGE IS A SERIES OF STRONG TROUGHS PUSHING
EASTWARD ATOP IT INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS. TYPICALLY, THIS
WOULDN'T MEAN A TON CONSIDERING THE ROBUSTNESS OF THIS UPPER
RIDGE. HOWEVER, STRONG CONVERGENCE ON THE BACKSIDES OF THESE
TROUGHS IS FORECAST TO YIELD AN ANOMALOUS SURFACE HIGH SETTLING
INTO THE NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC BY TUESDAY, PUSHING A
BACKDOOR FRONT THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. SO MONDAY, AHEAD
OF SAID FRONT, WILL LIKELY BE WARM AS WE GET THE COMBINATION OF
RISING HEIGHTS AND COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
FRONT. BUT BEHIND THAT FRONT, WHILE TEMPS DON'T LOOK COOL BY
ANY STRETCH, THEY LIKELY WON'T BE PARTICULARLY HOT EITHER WITH
RESPECT TO HOW STRONG THE RIDGE WILL BE. SURFACE DEWPOINTS ALSO
LOOK TO DROP, HELPING MAKE THE AIRMASS MORE PALATABLE. THERE IS
SOME SKEPTICISM WITH THIS FORECASTER THAT THE BACKDOOR FRONT
MAKES IT THROUGH. HOWEVER, GUIDANCE IS FORECASTING IT PRETTY
MUCH ACROSS THE BOARD & ENSEMBLE SPREAD IS FAIRLY LOW FOR HIGH
TEMPS IN THAT PERIOD. SO EVEN THOUGH WE'LL HAVE SOME OF THE
HIGHEST 500 HPA HEIGHTS EVER FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR OVERHEAD, WE
ARE UNLIKELY TO FACE THE TRUE WRATH OF THAT SETUP GIVEN THE
BACKDOOR FRONT THAT WILL SWEEP IN AND SAVE THE DAY (HOPEFULLY).
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON.
SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER AND A 15 KT LLJ ON THE VAD WIND
PROFILE HAVE WORKED TO HINDER FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. A
STRATO-CU DECK COULD SPREAD INTO THE FORECAST AREA SIMILAR TO
THE NIGHT BEFORE, BUT MODELS ARE OPTIMISTIC KEEPING CONDITIONS
VFR.
EXPECT LIGHT WINDS TODAY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST FROM 5 TO 10 KTS.
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY EARLY TO MID-AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. IT IS UNCLEAR WHETHER OR NOT COVERAGE WILL BE
HIGH ENOUGH TO MAKE IMPACTS LIKELY TO THE TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON. BECAUSE OF THIS WE HAVE ELECTED TO MAINTAIN VCSH AT
ALL SITES TO REPRESENT THE LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR OR AT THE TERMINALS. WINDS WILL GO CALM OR
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AROUND SUNSET AS CONVECTION TAPERS OFF.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. THE
PROBABILITY FOR EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS INCREASES THIS WEEKEND
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...PL
AVIATION...CJR
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