505
FXUS62 KCAE 250627
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
227 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
CONFIDENCE INCREASED FOR NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY.
COLD FRONT LATE IN WEEK CONTINUES TO TREND MOSTLY DRY BUT BRINGS
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THIS WEEKEND. AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED
FOR 06Z TAFS
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. TEMPERATURES WARM THROUGH FRIDAY, BEFORE A COLD FRONT
BRINGS BACK COOLER/DRIER TO THE REGION FOR THIS WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES LIKELY REBOUND AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- 2. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ENTER THIS WEEKEND BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH VERY DRY AIR AND BREEZY WINDS MOVING IN.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: TEMPERATURES WARM THROUGH FRIDAY, BEFORE A COLD
FRONT BRINGS BACK COOLER/DRIER TO THE REGION FOR THIS WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES LIKELY REBOUND AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AFTER A COOL MORNING IN THE LOW TO MID 40S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
(UPPER 30S IN THE NORTHERN FA), TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO WARM
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. UPPER RIDGING INCHES CLOSER TODAY, WITH
LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMING A BIT MORE SOUTHEASTERLY AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS MOVING OFF SHORE. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL, IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW
70S. 500MB HEIGHT RISES RAMP UP THURSDAY, AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY
AS 500MB HEIGHTS EXCEED THE NAEFS 90TH PERCENTILE AND 850 MB
TEMPERATURES NEAR THE NAEFS 99TH PERCENTILE BY FRIDAY. THESE
FACTORS ALONG WITH INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 80S ON THURSDAY, BEFORE
TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 80S FRIDAY, WHICH COULD BE WITHIN A
COUPLE DEGREES OF DAILY RECORDS FOR CAE/AGS. THIS NEAR RECORD
WARMTH FRIDAY IS HIGHLIGHTED IN THE RECENT EC EFI WITH VALUES
EXCEEDING 0.90 AND A SHIFT OF TAILS (SOT) OF 1. THERE REMAINS
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ACROSS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE AND GLOBAL MODELS
ON THE TIMING OF THE STRONG COLD FRONT WITH THIS MOVING THROUGH
LATE FRIDAY AND INTO EARLY SATURDAY. THE FRONT CONTINUES TO
LOOK MOSTLY DRY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POP'S MAINLY ACROSS
THE PEE DEE REGION CONSIDERING THE TIMING. BEHIND THE FRONT,
MUCH COOLER/DRIER AIR MOVES IN AS STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
(NEAR THE NAEFS CLIMATOLOGICAL MAX) MOVES INTO THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE A TOUCH BELOW NORMAL THIS
WEEKEND BEFORE FOLLOWING A SIMILAR PATTERN AS THIS WEEK, WITH
WARMING TEMPERATURES INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 2: FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ENTER THIS WEEKEND BEHIND
THE FRONT WITH VERY DRY AIR AND BREEZY WINDS MOVING IN.
AS THE STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES IN LATE FRIDAY, A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT TAKES SHAPE AS ROBUST 1036-1038MB HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES INTO MIDWEST. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BRING BREEZY
WINDS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON THAT RAMP UP FURTHER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS EVEN FURTHER WITH THE SURFACE
HIGH MOVING CLOSER. THE LATEST EC ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTION SHOWS
A SWATH OF 25-30 MPH GUSTS DURING THIS PERIOD, WHILE THE GEFS IS
A BIT LESS AGGRESSIVE, BUT STILL SHOWING GUSTS EXCEEDING 20-25
MPH. THIS SURFACE HIGH ORIGINATING FROM WESTERN CANADA BRINGS A
VERY DRY AIRMASS WHERE LREF PROBABILITIES FOR RH VALUES UNDER
25% EXCEED 60% FOR MUCH OF THE FA. THE LATEST EC ENSEMBLE IS A
BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE, BUT IN GENERAL DISPLAYS A SIMILAR STORY.
OVERALL, CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT BREEZY NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS WILL BE SEEN BEHIND THE FRONT, COINCIDING WITH MINIMUM RH
VALUES THAT NEAR OR FALL BELOW CRITICAL VALUES SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. WHEN THIS IS COUPLED WITH DRY FUELS FROM THE
PROLONGED DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA, ENHANCED
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED ESPECIALLY SATURDAY. NEAR TO
BELOW CRITICAL RH VALUES SEEM LIKELY AGAIN SUNDAY, BUT WINDS
LOOK TO BE MUCH WEAKER.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE 24HR FORECAST
PERIOD.
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST CONTINUES TO
RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA. PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
CONTINUES WITH SLIGHTLY MORE EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT OFF THE
ATLANTIC WHICH IS PRODUCING WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AND RESULTING
IN SOME PATCHY VFR STRATOCUMULUS CEILINGS AT AGS/DNL/OGB.
NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 TO 7 KNOTS EXPECTED TODAY GRADUALLY
SHIFTING MORE SOUTHEASTERLY BY AFTERNOON. EXPECT SOME SCATTERED
LOW VFR CLOUDS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON THEN DISSIPATING
BY THIS EVENING.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT, USHERING IN ANOTHER REINFORCING COOL AND
DRY AIR MASS FOR THE WEEKEND. SOME GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DH
AVIATION...HC
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