780
FXUS62 KCAE 131814
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
214 PM EDT TUE OCT 13 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE OVERALL FORECAST. AVIATION DISCUSSION
UPDATED FOR 12Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. DRY, WARM WEATHER FAVORED THROUGH THE WEEK.
- 2. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH THROUGH
THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT, USHERING NICE AUTUMNAL WEATHER.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: DRY, WARM WEATHER FAVORED THROUGH THE WEEK.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAINING
IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG, ANOMALOUS RIDGING IS
FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
NAEFS 500 HPA HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE MODEL
CLIMATE'S MAX FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. WITH A RELATIVELY DRY (PWS
~1") IN PLACE & SUNNY SKIES, WE ARE LOOKING AT NEAR RECORD HIGHS
ACROSS THE AREA WED-FRI. HIGHS OF 86F-90F LOOK LIKELY IN THIS
PERIOD, WITH LOWS LIKELY REBOUNDING A BIT INTO THE LOW 60S GIVEN
RELATIVELY LOW DEWPOINTS FOR SUCH A WARM AIRMASS. THE EFI VALUES
ARE SITTING AROUND 0.75-0.85 EACH DAY, CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT
ANOMALOUS TEMPS WILL CONTINUE. STILL THINK THAT THUR/FRI HAVE
THE BEST CHANCES FOR TEMPS BUMPING UP ABOVE 90 DESPITE THE NBM
SLIGHTLY COOLING TEMPS FOR FRIDAY ESPECIALLY. THE COMBINATION OF
STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT SHOULD YIELD IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR A RECORD TO BREAK.
KEY MESSAGE 2: A STRONG COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH THROUGH
THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT, USHERING NICE AUTUMNAL WEATHER.
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL PATTERN HEADING
INTO THIS WEEKEND. A DEEP TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE
CENTRAL US OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND BEGIN MARCHING
EASTWARD, PUSHING A STRONG COLD FRONT ALONG WITH IT. THIS WILL
OCCUR IN CONJUNCTION WITH A STRONG, ANOMALOUS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE PUSHING OUT OF THE UPPER MIDWEST AND INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC BY THIS WEEKEND. THERE IS SOME MINOR SPREAD IN THE
TIMING OF THE FRONT BUT IN GENERAL IT IS FORECAST TO PUSH
THROUGH THE AREA EASILY ON FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH A MUCH WELCOMED
COOL DOWN FOLLOWING IN ITS WAKE. THIS IS DRIVEN BY A SURFACE
HIGH THAT IS EXPECTED TO BE ON THE ORDER OF 1040 MB, WHICH IS
NEAR THE 99TH PERCENTILE FOR STRENGTH THIS TIME OF YEAR.
GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED FOR HIGHS AND LOWS THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A RESULT, WITH WELL-BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
IN THE 60S ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, BUMPING BACK UP INTO THE LOW
70S BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK CHILLY, WITH 40S
LIKELY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. OUR COOLER SPOTS MAY FLIRT WITH
THE 30S GIVEN THE LOW DEWPOINT AIRMASS! ADDITIONALLY, EXPECT IT
TO BE BREEZY ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE EFI WIND GUST
SIGNAL IS PRETTY GOOD (~0.7-0.75) FOR SATURDAY, WITH GUSTS OF
30+ MPH EXPECTED BEHIND SUCH A STRONG FRONT.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR OUTSIDE OF POTENTIAL EARLY MORNING PATCHY FOG.
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE DAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE REGION. CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW
FOR EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS AND FOR ANOTHER
ROUND OF BRIEF, EARLY MORNING FOG AT OUR FOG-PRONE SITES.
ALTHOUGH FOG MAY FORM AT AGS AND OGB, WE HAVE KEPT THE TAFS VFR
DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE EXACT TIMEFRAME OF THE BRIEF
POTENTIAL FOG. LIGHT WINDS CONTINUE WEDNESDAY WITH WINDS
GENERALLY OUT OF THE SW BUT COULD BE VARIABLE MUCH OF THE DAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
LATE THIS WEEK AND EARLY WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH PRECIPITATION IS
UNLIKELY, BREEZY W/SW WINDS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY SHIFTING TO
NORTHERLIES SATURDAY.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...PL
AVIATION...CJR
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