654
FXUS62 KCAE 211754
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
154 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2025
SYNOPSIS
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
MIDLANDS AND CSRA WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN HOLDS OFF UNTIL THE
LATE WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- CLEAR AND BREEZY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A MOSTLY DRY FRONT
LATER THIS EVENING.
AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE
SOUTHEAST REMAINS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE NEAR TERM. A
SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MAIN TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
OVER THE REGION OVERNIGHT, SENDING A SURFACE COOL FRONT ACROSS
THE AREA. WITH THE DRYNESS OF THE AIRMASS, NOT EXPECTING ANY
SHOWERS AS IT PASSES THE AREA. HOWEVER, THERE IS A VERY LOW
(~10%) CHANCE OF A ROGUE SHOWER IN THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS OR
PEEDEE. AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH, REINFORCING DRY AIR WITH
PWATS AROUND A THIRD OF AN INCH MOVE INTO THE AREA. A FEW GUSTS
OF 25 MPH OR SO ARE ALSO POSSIBLE, BUT ARE NOT ANTICIPATED TO
PERSIST BEYOND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. WITH THE ELEVATED WINDS
OVERNIGHT, LOWS ARE NOT FORECAST TO BE AS COOL AS LAST NIGHT.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- COOLER AND DRY WITH CHILLY OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES.
BROAD UPPER TROUGHING WILL DRIVE A DRY AND COOL FORECAST THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT, PWAT VALUES SHOULD FALL
BACK BELOW 0.5" WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING AT THE SURFACE. OUTSIDE
OF SOME SLIGHTLY ELEVATED WESTERLY WINDS WEDNESDAY, WITH GUSTS
AROUND 15 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON, THE WEATHER WILL BE OVERALL QUIET
WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AND NIGHTTIME
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. NORMALLY COLD AND SHELTERED
LOCATIONS MAY BRIEFLY SEE READINGS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S EACH
MORNING.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN LATE THIS WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE TO OUR NORTHEAST INTO THIS WEEKEND, WITH
ZONAL FLOW GIVING WAY TO SLIGHT RIDGING ALOFT BY SUNDAY. A
DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER,
SLOWLY INCREASING ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE LEVELS BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. PWAT VALUES ARE PROGGED TO EXCEED 1" BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AS
SUCH, DRY CONDITIONS AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THERE IS
INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE LATE
THIS WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCE MOVES TOWARD THE EAST COAST. HOWEVER, SOME OF THE MORE
RECENT GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING A LATER ONSET OF PRECIP, SO STILL TIME
TO HAMMER OUT THE FINER FORECAST DETAILS.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A DRY FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE WEST BRINGS SOME BREEZY
SOUTHWEST WINDS TO THE TERMINAL THROUGH ABOUT 05Z-06Z. AFTER THE
FRONT PASSES, WINDS SHIFT TO MORE WESTERLY WITH A FEW INITIAL
GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS POSSIBLE, BUT SHOULD BE BRIEF. NOT
ANTICIPATING ANY RAIN AT THE TERMINALS AT THIS TIME. AFTER
DIMINISHING SOME IN THE MORNING, WESTERLY WINDS INCREASE TO
AROUND 10 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 15 KTS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE
TAF PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT AVIATION CONCERNS
THROUGH LATE WEEK. THE NEXT RAIN POTENTIAL ARRIVES LATE IN THE
WEEKEND.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
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