452
FXUS62 KCAE 151734
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
134 PM EDT THU OCT 15 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
GUIDANCE SHOWING INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS WITH THE COLD
FRONT THIS WEEKEND. AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 18Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. NEAR-RECORD WARMTH THROUGH FRIDAY.
- 2. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT, USHERING IN COOLER WEATHER THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: NEAR-RECORD WARMTH THROUGH FRIDAY.
ANOMALOUSLY HOT TEMPERATURES CONTINUE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY AND TOMORROW BENEATH AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG RIDGE AND AHEAD
OF A STRONG COLD FRONT PROGGED TO PUSH THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. WE
ARE ALREADY SITTING IN THE UPPER 80S ACROSS THE AREA, LIKELY TO
BREAK RECORD HIGHS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS PROBABLY GOING
TO HAPPEN AGAIN ON FRIDAY GIVEN COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING FRONT, THOUGH GUIDANCE IS SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
TODAY/WEDNESDAY. GENERALLY HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S
ARE EXPECTED.
KEY MESSAGE 2: A STRONG COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH THROUGH
THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT, USHERING IN COOLER WEATHER THIS
WEEKEND.
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK, WITH SOME NOTABLE WRENCHES THAT
ARE INCREASINGLY APPEARING IN GUIDANCE. GUIDANCE HAS SLOWED THE
FRONT DOWN SLIGHTLY ON FRIDAY NIGHT OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF
DAYS; EVEN STILL, IT IS FORECAST TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA
BETWEEN 10P FRIDAY AND 3A SATURDAY. COOLER AIR IS FORECAST TO
RUSH INTO THE AREA BEHIND IT, WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED
AS WELL. THE TROUGH FORCING ALL OF THIS HAS TRENDED MUCH SHARPER
OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS, WITH GUIDANCE NOW SHOWING SOME FORM
OF THE TROUGH CUTTING OFF TO OUR EAST BY SATURDAY NIGHT OR
SUNDAY. IT IS UNLIKELY, BUT THERE IS STILL A SMALL CLUSTER OF
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE THAT IS TRYING TO CUT THE UPPER LOW OFF CLOSER
TO US, WHICH WOULD IMPACT OUR WEATHER MORE THAN EXPECTED. THE
PASSING BLOW OF LIGHT SHOWERS EXPECTED EARLY SATURDAY MORNING
WOULD LINGER LONGER IN THIS SCENARIO AND HAVE SOME DOWNSTREAM
IMPACTS WITH TEMPS. THIS IS AN UNLIKELY SCENARIO BUT DOES HAVE
SOME SUPPORT IN THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE AS WELL. REGARDLESS,
SOME SHOWERS ARE LIKELY EARLY ON SATURDAY AS THE FRONT CLEARS,
MOISTURE LAGS A BIT BEHIND, AND INTENSE SYNOPTIC LIFT ALLOWS FOR
SOME RAIN TO DEVELOP. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE QUITE BREEZY ON
SATURDAY. BUFKIT TIME/HEIGHT PLOTS SUGGEST THAT WIND GUSTS OF
30-40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY AS A COOL AND DRY AIRMASS
RAPIDLY ADVECTS INTO THE AREA. WE WILL NEED A LAKE WIND ADVISORY
AND HONESTLY ARE BORDERING ON WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. IF THE
COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS A BIT EARLIER AND CLOSER TO US THAN IS
CURRENTLY EXPECTED, WE DEFINITELY WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR
STRONGER GUSTS. SUNDAY WILL BE QUITE CHILLY WITH TEMPS IN THE
LOW 60S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S. FROM THERE, A MODEST WARM
UP CLOSER TO NORMAL IS EXPECTED INTO NEXT WEEK. GIVEN PRESENCE
OF NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE, COOL TEMPS AND
DRY AIR IS EXPECTED DEEP INTO NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE 24HR FORECAST PERIOD.
SUNNY SKIES UNDER HIGH PRESSURE TODAY WITH ONLY LIGHT
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AROUND 5 KNOTS. WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE WITH
SUNSET TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR CALM OVERNIGHT. SOME GUIDANCE
(HRRR WITH SREF SUPPORT) IS SUGGESTING SOME STRATUS/FOG
DEVELOPING ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN AND POSSIBLY IMPACTING OGB
AND AGS. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LIMITED SO LEFT OUT OF THE FORECAST
BUT IF TRENDS IMPROVE MAY NEED TO INCLUDE A TEMPO GROUP FOR OGB
10-13Z TIME FRAME. AGS COULD ALSO SEE THE INTERMITTENT IFR VSBYS
SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT. OTHERWISE, GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION
ON FRIDAY AND AN INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH RESULT IN
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 10 KNOTS AFTER 15Z WITH
SOME HIGHER GUSTS LIKELY BY AFTERNOON.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
TO BE LIMITED, BREEZY W/SW WINDS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY EVENING
SHIFTING TO A NORTHERLY DIRECTION ON SATURDAY.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...PL
AVIATION...23
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