462
FXUS62 KCAE 291125
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
625 AM EST THU JAN 29 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
WINTER STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR THE FORECAST AREA FROM FRIDAY
EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) SNOW EXPECTED TO CAUSE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL THIS WEEKEND.
- 2) WELL-BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK, WITH FRIGID AIR EXPECTED SUNDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE #1: SNOW EXPECTED TO CAUSE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL THIS
WEEKEND.
SUMMARY: A WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR CENTRAL SC AND
EAST-CENTRAL GA FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A
HIGHLY ANOMALOUS COLD AIR MASS WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION OVER
THE WEEKEND. AS A COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS, MOISTURE WILL BE PULLED
INTO THE SOUTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC SETTING UP FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR IMPACTS FROM SNOWFALL FROM THE AREA. THE
NORTHERN MIDLANDS ARE MOST LIKELY TO SEE SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL
WITH AMOUNTS FROM 3 TO 6 INCHES POSSIBLE. ALTHOUGH THE SOUTHERN
EXTENT OF SNOWFALL IS LESS CERTAIN, CHANCES ARE INCREASING THAT
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA COULD RECEIVE ACCUMULATIONS
OF 1 TO 3 INCHES.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: ON SATURDAY, AN ABNORMALLY DEEP 500 MB LOW
WILL MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE FORECAST AREA AS A COASTAL LOW
DEVELOPS TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. THE NAEFS ENSEMBLE FORECAST FOR
THE STRENGTH OF THE 500 MB LOW FALLS NEAR THE EDGE OUR OUTSIDE
OF THE 30 YEAR CLIMATOLOGY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE EXTREME
COLD POOL ALOFT BRINGS SOME CHALLENGES TO THE FORECAST
INCLUDING MESOSCALE PROCESSES WHICH MAY NOT BE REFLECTED WELL IN
GLOBAL MODELS BUT ALSO FORECAST SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS FAR ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THIS REGION OF THE COUNTRY.
TIMING: AHEAD OF THE 500MB LOW, WE MAY SEE SHALLOW MOISTURE
ADVECTION INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY EVENING AND EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO DEVELOP TO OUR SOUTH. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT THE SNOW GROWTH REGION MAY NOT BE SATURATED
UNTIL LATER SATURDAY MORNING FOR MOST OF THE FA. THIS COULD
ALLOW FOR SOME DRIZZLE/SPRINKLES UNTIL COLDER AIR MOVES IN
ALOFT AND ICE IS INTRODUCED TO THE CLOUD. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE
A BRIEF MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WE WOULD EXPECT A QUICK TRANSITION
TO ALL SNOW AS COLD AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE OVER THE REGION.
DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM WE COULD SEE SNOW CONTINUE
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT, ESPECIALLY AS THE COLD POOL ALOFT MOVES
OVERHEAD. ALL PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO LIFT AWAY FROM THE AREA
SUNDAY MORNING WITH BITTERLY COLD WINDS IN THE WAKE.
IMPACTS: WHAT IS EXPECTED TO BE A DRY SNOW WOULD LEAD TO
HAZARDOUS TRAVEL OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE GREATEST IMPACTS
EXPECTED IN THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS. BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES
AND WIND CHILLS COULD EXTEND TRAVEL ISSUES INTO MONDAY WITH ONLY
A SHORT WINDOW, IF ANY, OF TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING ON
SUNDAY.
KEY MESSAGE #2: WELL-BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH FRIGID AIR EXPECTED SUNDAY
MORNING.
DEEP AND BROAD MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING CONTINUING THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK KEEPS TEMPERATURES BELOW
NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS INCLUDING THE SC MIDLANDS
AND CSRA. HIGHS THURSDAY ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 40S, WITH
TEMPS TOPPING OUT AROUND 50 FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WHILE LOWS
REMAIN IN THE 20S THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. REINFORCING COLD AIR
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN WITH THE WEEKEND WINTER SYSTEM DISCUSSED
IN KEY MESSAGE #1, KEEPING HIGHS GENERALLY BELOW FREEZING ON
SATURDAY. THE BIGGER CONCERN IS SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING.
WITH THE EXPECTED FRESH SNOW COVER, TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID TEENS. IN FACT, THE NBM SHOWS A HIGH
CHANCE (70-80%) OF LOWS LESS THAN 15 DEGREES ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA, WHICH WOULD BREAK THE RECORD LOWS FOR BOTH CAE (16F) AND
AGS (17F). THE LATEST RUN OF THE NBM, HAS 50TH PERCENTILE LOW
TEMPS FOR SUNDAY MORNING AT 12F FOR BOTH CAE AND AGS. IN
ADDITION TO THESE FRIGID TEMPS, WINDS ARE FORECAST TO GUST TO
20-30 MPH, WITH A LOW CHANCE (10-20%) OF GUSTS GREATER THAN 30
MPH. THE TEMPS COMBINED WITH THESE WINDS WOULD RESULT IN
BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILLS, BETWEEN 0-5F, WHICH WOULD MEET THE
CRITERIA FOR AN EXTREME COLD WARNING. AS SUCH, AN EXTREME COLD
WATCH MAY NEED TO BE ISSUED LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT ASSUMING
THESE TRENDS CONTINUE. WHILE WE STILL DON'T EXPECT TO BE NEAR
ANY COLD WEATHER HEADLINE CRITERIA UNTIL THIS COMING WEEKEND,
THE PERSISTENT COLD WEATHER COULD PRESENT A COMPOUNDING PROBLEM
WITH POORLY INSULATED PIPES AND ANYONE WITHOUT ACCESS TO
SUFFICIENT HEATING.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS,
ALLOWING FOR JUST SOME CIRRUS CLOUDS TO MOVE OVERHEAD. WINDS
REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE DUE TO BEING UNDER HIGH PRESSURE
THROUGH THE DAY, SO KEPT A PREDOMINANT VRB GROUP TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS. CUB AND AGS LIKELY BECOMING CALM AFTER 00Z WHILE THE OTHER
TERMINALS ARE ANTICIPATED TO HAVE SOME WIND THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...IMPACTFUL AVIATION WEATHER BECOMES
MORE LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES SOMEWHERE NEAR THE REGION AND BRINGS THE
POSSIBILITY OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON FOR SCZ016-018-020>022-025>031-035-037-038-041-
115-116-135>137.
GA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON FOR GAZ040-063>065-077.
DISCUSSION...29/CJR
AVIATION...29
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