039
FXUS62 KCAE 091758
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
158 PM EDT THU JUL 9 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
KEY MESSAGE 1 UPDATED. NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE OVERALL FORECAST
WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON, FAVORING THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME STRONG WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AS THE
PRIMARY SEVERE HAZARD. AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 18Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. HOT AND BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TODAY AND TOMORROW.
- 2. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY BRINGS HIGHER RAIN CHANCES FOR THE
WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY INCREASINGLY LIKELY COOLER TEMPS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: HOT AND BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TODAY AND
TOMORROW.
THE MID TO UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG THE EAST COAST
THIS AFTERNOON MOVING EASTWARD IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING
TROUGH OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO
FLATTEN OUT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. EXPECT HOT AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100 DEGREES AND
HEAT INDEX VALUES BETWEEN 100 AND 105 DEGREES. WHILE BELOW OUR
HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA, CONTINUE TO EXERCISE CAUTION IF SPENDING
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME OUTDOORS DURING PEAK HEATING.
IN TERMS OF THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE, CONVECTION SHOULD ONCE AGAIN
FAVOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. RADAR IS ALREADY
DETECTING A FEW SMALL SHOWERS IN THE CSRA WITH MORE ROBUST
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER CENTRAL GEORGIA. THE SPC HAS UPGRADED
THE FORECAST AREA TO A MARGINAL (1/5) RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER
TODAY, CITING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AS THE PRIMARY SEVERE HAZARD.
THIS IS DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF AN INVERTED-V SIGNATURE ON
MODELED SOUNDINGS IN ADDITION TO AMPLE CAPE AND DCAPE. PWATS
REMAIN HIGH THIS AFTERNOON BUT STORM MOTION SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT TO LIMIT THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING. CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE MAY BE HIGHER FRIDAY AFTERNOON BASED ON THE LATEST HI-
RES GUIDANCE.
KEY MESSAGE 2: A FRONTAL BOUNDARY BRINGS HIGHER RAIN CHANCES FOR THE
WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY INCREASINGLY LIKELY COOLER TEMPS.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHWARD IN RESPONSE TO A
SHORTWAVE MOVING FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. AS THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH APPROACH
THE AREA, MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CAN
BE ANTICIPATED FOR THE WEEKEND. THIS ACTIVITY COULD LINGER INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE FRONT
STALLS OUT NEAR THE AREA. IN ADDITION TO THE INCREASED RAIN
CHANCES, IT LOOKS INCREASINGLY LIKELY THAT WE'LL SEE COOLER
TEMPERATURES. THE NBM INTERQUARTILE RANGE (IQR) ON MONDAY
RANGES FROM THE LOW TO MID 80S TO AROUND 90F FOR THE AREA. GIVEN
THE RECENT HOT WEATHER, THE NBM TAKES THAT INTO ACCOUNT AND
WILL LIKELY HAVE A WARM BIAS. SO, I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF WE
END UP TOWARD THE COOLER END OF THE IQR.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE AT ALL TERMINALS WITH SCATTERED CUMULUS
CLOUDS AROUND 5KFT. A BIT MORE VERTICAL GROWTH IN THE CLOUDS IN
SOUTHERN GEORGIA WITH THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AND SLOWLY
DRIFTING TOWARDS THE AUGUSTA TERMINALS. ISOLATED STORMS MAY
APPROACH AND HAVE CONTINUED THE PROB30 TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY, ALTHOUGH COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
LIMITED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH
THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT WITH WINDS DIMINISHING AS WELL.
SIMILAR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TOMORROW WITH SCATTERED CUMULUS AND
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE BUT AFTER 18Z.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON
STORMS THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...7
AVIATION...96
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