024
FXUS62 KCAE 270531
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
131 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MINIMAL CHANGE TO KEY MESSAGE. AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR
06Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. DRIER CONDITIONS AND WARMING
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO START NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED EACH DAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. DRIER CONDITIONS AND
WARMING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO START NEXT WEEK.
THERE HAS NOT BEEN MUCH CHANGE IN THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
ROUND OF MODEL GUIDANCE. PWAT'S REMAIN BETWEEN 1.80-2.0" ACROSS
THE FA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS IN PORTIONS
OF THE CSRA. REGIONAL WV IMAGERY REVEALS TROUGHING SETTING UP
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN TENNESSEE VALLEY. OVERALL, A FAIRLY SIMILAR DAY TO
YESTERDAY IS EXPECTED WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND SCATTERED
DIURNAL CONVECTION AS MLCAPE VALUES NEAR 2000 J/KG. THE SEVERE
RISK IS LOW, BUT IT IS WORTH NOTING RAP/HRRR/RRFS SOUNDINGS
INDICATE NEAR 30 KTS OF CLOUD LAYER SHEAR SHOULD BE IN PLACE
THIS AFTERNOON AS ENHANCED MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOWS MOVES IN. THIS
COULD ALLOW A FEW STORMS TO SUSTAIN THEMSELVES AND BRING A LOW
END RISK FOR A COUPLE STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OR AN
INSTANCE OF SUB-SEVERE HAIL GIVEN SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN NORMAL
FREEZING LEVELS. LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
WELL WITH EFFICIENT RAIN RATES EXPECTED IN CONVECTION.
MUCH OF THE SAME IS EXPECTED FRIDAY, EXCEPT A FRONT NEARING THE
AREA THROUGH THE DAY COULD AID IN BRINGING A MORE FOCUSED AREA
FOR CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING, ESPECIALLY TOWARD
THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FA. A COUPLE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN AS EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES NEAR 20-25
KTS WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING IN. TEMPERATURES LIKELY
REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE REGION NOW FINDS
ITSELF ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER TROUGH, BUT DIURNAL
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED EACH DAY. A BIT OF A PATTERN SHIFT IS
THEN EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A STRONG RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER
THE WESTERN US SLIDES EASTWARD, STRENGTHENING TOWARD THE NAEFS
97.5TH PERCENTILE. THIS FEATURE SHOULD BRING LOWER RAIN CHANCES,
BUT TEMPERATURES 5-8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL COULD BE POSSIBLE AS
SEEN IN NBM IQR RANGES. RETURNING HEAT INDICES ABOVE 100F COULD
BE POSSIBLE AS WELL WITH LREF PROBABILITIES BETWEEN 50-60% BY
TUESDAY.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
RESTRICTIONS ASSOCIATED WITH FOG/STRATUS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT INTO THE MORNING. ADDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS FROM AFTERNOON
CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
RADAR SHOWING MINIMAL TO NO RAIN AT ISSUANCE TIME, BUT CAN NOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OVERNIGHT AT ANY
LOCATION. BIGGER ISSUE THOUGH IS THE EXPECTED DEVELOPMENT OF LOW
STRATUS AND FOG. WITH PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE FROM
EARLIER RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA, LIGHT WINDS, AND SOMEWHAT
CLEAR SKIES, EXPECTING TO SEE INITIAL DEVELOPMENT OF LOW-STRATUS,
WHICH IS CURRENTLY BEGINNING TO SHOW UP ON SATELLITE. THIS WILL
BECOME RATHER WIDESPREAD, WITH IFR CEILINGS IMPACTING ALL TAF
LOCATIONS BY 08Z. GUIDANCE ALSO SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR PERIOD
OF IFR/LIFR VISIBILITIES TOWARDS MORNING, AND WILL HANDLE THAT
WITH TEMPO GROUPS FOR NOW AROUND SUNRISE.
IFR RESTRICTIONS WILL LAST THROUGH 14Z, THEN IMPROVING TO MVFR,
BEFORE FINALLY BACK TO VFR BY 17Z. SCATTERED CONVECTION IS ONCE
AGAIN EXPECTED BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON, MOST LIKELY BETWEEN 17Z
THROUGH 23Z OR EVEN SLIGHTLY LATER. ACTIVITY SHOULD BE
DIMINISHING BY 02Z, WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE THROUGH
MIDNIGHT AGAIN.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DH
AVIATION...73
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page