662
FXUS62 KCAE 271047
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
647 AM EDT SUN SEP 27 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 12Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES
INITIALLY NEAR NORMAL WARMING BACK ABOVE NORMAL BY THE MID
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK WITH
TEMPERATURES INITIALLY NEAR NORMAL WARMING BACK ABOVE NORMAL BY
THE MID WEEK.
LITTLE HAS CHANGED IN THE OUTLOOK FOR TODAY THROUGH AT LEAST
THE MID WEEK. THE UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED NOR'EASTER WILL
CONTINUE TO MEANDER ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TODAY WITH LOW LEVEL
NORTHERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW KEEPING DRY AIR IN PLACE. THIS
SHOULD BRING MORNING LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S NEAR
DAYBREAK BEFORE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WARM TO AROUND NORMAL, IN
THE LOW TO MID 80S. HEADING INTO THE WORK WEEK, A BLOCKING
PATTERN LIKELY PERSISTS THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY AS A STRONG
TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE SW CONUS, INTERACTING WITH REMNANT
MOISTURE FROM WHAT IS CURRENTLY HURRICANE POLO. ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT RIDGING SHOULD GRADUALLY
SHIFT OVERHEAD WITH ASSOCIATED WARMING TEMPERATURES DURING THE
MID WEEK WHERE TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S
WILL BE POSSIBLE. IN GENERAL, THIS PATTERN FAVORS CONTINUED
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS, THOUGH DEEPER MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY
WORK BACK TOWARD THE REGION DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK WITH
PWAT'S EXCEEDING 1". BY THE LATE WEEK AND INTO THE START OF THE
WEEKEND, THE RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH MAY BECOME
INCREASINGLY SUPPRESSED AS THE SW CONUS TROUGH PUSHES EASTWARD,
POSSIBLY BRINGING BACK SHOWER/STORM CHANCES.
AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD.
OUTSIDE OF SOME PASSING HIGH CIRRUS, EXPECT SKC. HIGH PRESSURE AND A
VERY DRY AIRMASS PROMOTE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT
ALL TAF SITES. SURFACE WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE EARLY THIS
MORNING SHIFTING OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS BY 15Z.
WINDS RETURN TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DH
AVIATION...EC
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