239
FXUS62 KCAE 141818
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
218 PM EDT WED OCT 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 12Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. DRY, WARM WEATHER FAVORED THROUGH THE WEEK.
- 2. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT, USHERING IN COOLER AUTUMNAL WEATHER THIS
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: NEAR-RECORD WARMTH THROUGH FRIDAY.
CURRENT CONDITIONS SHOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER-80S
ACROSS THE REGION WITH SUNNY SKIES. SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE WARM AIR TRANSPORT. THOSE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AS AN UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE SITS OVER THE SOUTHEAST WITH THE LREF AND NAEFS BOTH
SHOWING 500MB HEIGHTS AT THE 99TH PERCENTILE. HIGHS SHOULD
REACH THE UPPER-80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES THROUGH FRIDAY WITH LOWS
IN THE MID-50S TO LOW-60S. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR RECORD
TERRITORY AS NORMAL HIGHS ARE IN THE UPPER-70S. PWATS ARE
GENERALLY AROUND AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AS DRY CONDITIONS
PERSIST LEADING TO MINIMAL HUMIDITY AND NO HEAT INDICES.
KEY MESSAGE 2: A STRONG COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT, USHERING IN COOLER AUTUMNAL WEATHER THIS
WEEKEND.
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
SWEEP ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HEADING INTO THIS WEEKEND, USHERING IN A
MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AUTUMN AIRMASS. A DEVELOPING TROUGH CURRENTLY
OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES WILL DIG SOUTHEASTWARD AND DEEPEN ACROSS
THE CENTRAL US OVER THE NEXT 2 DAYS, PUSHING THE FRONT EASTWARD
ALONG WITH IT. THIS WILL OCCUR IN CONJUNCTION WITH A STRONG,
ANOMALOUS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING OUT OF THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
INTO THE MID- ATLANTIC BY THIS WEEKEND. WITH A STOUT CAP AND
PRACTICALLY NO CAPE PRESENT, THIS WILL A RELATIVELY DRY FRONT WITH
LITTLE TO NO DEEP CONVECTION AND ONLY SPRINKLES POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY
AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING. SPREAD IN TIMING OF THE GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO NARROW DOWN TO ARRIVAL ON FRIDAY NIGHT. BREEZY
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. DECENT MIXING SHOULD ALLOW MAX GUSTS OF
25-35 MPH BEHIND THE FRONT, WHICH MAY POSE FUTURE ADVISORIES FOR
LOCAL LAKES.
GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED FOR HIGHS AND LOWS THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF NEAR-RECORD HIGHS, A DRAMATIC
20-25 F TEMPERATURE DROP IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT. WELL-BELOW
NORMAL HIGH TEMPS IN THE 60S F ARE ON TAP FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY,
BUMPING BACK UP INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S F BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. CHILLY
OVERNIGHT LOWS DUE TO LOWER DEW POINTS WILL ALLOW FOR LOWS TO FALL
INTO 40S F THIS WEEKEND. A FEW PROTECTED AREAS IN NORTHERN COUNTIES
CLOSER TO THE NC BORDER MAY FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S F, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO NOTE ANY POTENTIAL FOR FROST IN THESE AREAS
QUITE JUST YET.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR OUTSIDE OF POTENTIAL EARLY MORNING PATCHY FOG.
SOME BRIEF SUNRISE MORNING FOG AT OUR FOG-PRONE SITES IS
POSSIBLE AND ALONG THE RIVERS, BUT HAVE KEPT THE TAFS VFR DUE
TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE EXACT TIMEFRAME AND OVERALL IMPACTS;
THE TYPICAL MORNING MIFG IS MOVING THROUGH OGB-AGS NOW SO
INCLUDED A VFR TEMPO MENTION. LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR/DRY
CONDITIONS CONTINUE WEDNESDAY WITH WINDS GENERALLY OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST, BUT VARYING FROM SOUTH TO WEST..
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH PRECIPITATION IS UNLIKELY,
BREEZY W/SW WINDS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY SHIFTING TO NORTHERLIES
SATURDAY.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SF/NS
AVIATION...42
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