951
FXUS62 KCAE 190628
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
228 AM EDT WED AUG 19 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
CONFIDENCE IN RAINFALL ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY IS INCREASING.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. INCREASING CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: INCREASING CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.
UPPER RIDGING GIVES WAY TO BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. THEN GLOBAL ENSEMBLES FAVOR A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS A SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THIS FAVORS DEEP SW FLOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST ON FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY WITH A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING ALONG A BAROCLINIC
ZONE NEAR THE FORECAST AREA. ENHANCED SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND
INCREASING PWAT VALUES TO NEAR OR ABOVE 2 INCHES FAVORS
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WITH
HIGHER THAN NORMAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR THE SEASON, AND A
CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS, ORGANIZED STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND HEIGHT FALLS COULD SUPPORT
DAMAGING WINDS AND SMALL HAIL ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY IN
THE EASTERN MIDLANDS WHERE MOISTURE WILL BE DEEPER. DRIER AIR
SHOULD BEGIN TO WORK IN FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY. WE MAY SEE
SHOWERS/STORMS ONGOING SATURDAY MORNING BUT THE BULK OF THE
ACTIVITY SHOULD SHIFT TO THE EAST THROUGH THE DAY.
OTHERWISE, IT WILL BE WARMER THAN NORMAL TODAY AND THURSDAY BUT
WITH DRIER AIR OVER THE REGION AND WEAKER RIDGING NO HEAT
THRESHOLDS SHOULD BE MET. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY BUT ANY DAMAGING WIND
THREAT WILL BE ISOLATED AS TYPICAL FOR THE SEASON. COOLER
WEATHER IS LIKELY NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
A SINGLE THUNDERSTORM DID ACTUALLY DEVELOP EARLIER THIS EVENING
NEAR ORANGEBURG, MISSING THE AIRPORT BY A COUPLE OF MILES. IT
HAS COMPLETED THE LIFE CYCLE OF A SINGLE-CELL THUNDERSTORM NOW.
QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP IN THE COASTAL PLAIN TOMORROW SOUTH OF
ORANGEBURG WHERE THE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN BUT IT SEEMS SOMEWHAT
UNLIKELY THAT THESE PUSH TOWARDS THE TAF SITES. VFR IS EXPECTED.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...DIURNAL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEK, PEAKING THIS WEEKEND.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CJR
AVIATION...PL
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