539
FXUS62 KCAE 151025
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
625 AM EDT SAT AUG 15 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH TEMPERATURES, LIKELY
PEAKING ON MONDAY. SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
SATURDAY. AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 12Z UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. THE HIGH HEAT AND HUMIDITY CONTINUES WITH TEMPERATURES
LIKELY PEAKING ON MONDAY.
- 2. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION
EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
1. THE HIGH HEAT AND HUMIDITY CONTINUES WITH TEMPERATURES
LIKELY PEAKING ON MONDAY.
THE HIGH HEAT AND HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND
DESPITE WEAKENING UPPER RIDGING. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY
SHOULD GENERALLY RISE INTO THE MID-90S WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH
HIGH HUMIDITY TO PRODUCE MAX HEAT INDEX VALUES BETWEEN 105 AND
110 IN MOST LOCATIONS. A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH
8PM SATURDAY AND COULD BE EXTENDED ONCE AGAIN BASED ON GUIDANCE
FOR SUNDAY WHICH SUGGESTS MORE WIDESPREAD HEAT INDEX VALUES
EXCEEDING CRITERIA. ON MONDAY, MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS ANOMALOUSLY
HIGH 850MB TEMPERATURES PERHAPS EXCEEDING 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL YIELDING SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S AND LOWER
100S. THE HUMIDITY IS UNLIKELY TO RELENT MEANING ANOTHER DAY OR
DANGEROUS HEAT INDEX VALUES TO START THE NEW WORK WEEK. A TROUGH
DURING THE MID TO LATE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK MAY FINALLY BREAK
THE THREAT OF EXTREME HEAT WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO
SEASONAL VALUES. THE BOTTOM LINE IS WHETHER YOU ARE OUTDOORS FOR
WORK OR PLAY, TAKE APPROPRIATE PRECAUTIONS AND LIMIT TIME IN
DIRECT SUNLIGHT DURING PEAK HEATING HOURS.
2. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION
EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND.
THE FLATTENING RIDGE SHOULD RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS THIS WEEKEND.
AS HAS BEEN THE CASE DURING THE LAST FEW DAYS, ANY ROBUST
CONVECTION HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THE
LACK OF WINDS ALOFT MEANS THAT LOCALIZED FLOODING IS ALSO
POSSIBLE, PRIMARILY IF RAIN FALLS OVER NORMALLY FLOOD PRONE
AREAS. GUIDANCE ONCE AGAIN REMOVED THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
ON MONDAY AND THIS APPEARS TO BE DUE TO THE HIGHLY ANOMALOUS
850MB TEMPERATURES MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS SECTION. THIS
WOULD RESULT IN SUFFICIENT CAPPING OVER THE FORECAST AREA FOR
MONDAY, WITH ANY RAIN ARRIVING TOWARDS EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE
MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST POTENTIALLY ERODING THE CAP. MORE
TYPICAL AUGUST RAIN CHANCES ARE THEN ANTICIPATED, PERHAPS
INCREASING DURING THE MID TO LATE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK WHEN A
TROUGH MAY SET UP OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY OUTSIDE OF SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THROUGHOUT THE REST OF SATURDAY, TYPICAL SUMMER CU WILL DEVELOP
BY LATE MORNING WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS VARYING FROM
SOUTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP AFTER
18Z WITH COVERAGE INCREASING BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, A
BIT MORE WIDESPREAD THAN FRIDAY. PROB30 GROUPS FOR -TSRA
CURRENTLY COVER THE POTENTIAL FOR TAF SITES, BUT A TEMPO OR
PREDOMINANT GROUP IS EXPECTED TO BE NEEDED AS TIMING AND
LOCATION CONFIDENCE INCREASES. CONVECTION WILL WIND DOWN AFTER
00Z SUNDAY, WITH FOG-STRATUS POTENTIAL CONTINGENT ON RAINFALL
AMOUNTS AND FOOTPRINT.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...DIURNAL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ016-018-
020>022-025>031-035-037-038-041-115-116-135>137.
GA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GAZ040-063>065-
077.
DISCUSSION...7
AVIATION...42
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