072
FXUS62 KCAE 152341
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
741 PM EDT MON JUN 15 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 00Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE REST OF THE
WORK WEEK.
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
AND MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES MOVE OVER THE REGION. THIS PATTERN WILL
HELP EXPAND SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE INTO THE FORECAST
AREA, PARTICULARLY AS A WEAK SURFACE LOW ATTEMPTS TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY TUESDAY MORNING. THE LATEST GUIDANCE
TRENDS KEEP THE HIGHEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND PWATS GENERALLY
SOUTH OF THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK, KEEPING THE HIGHEST
POPS IN THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AND LOCATIONS
SOUTH. PERIODS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS A SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN RETURNS.
INSTABILITY APPEARS RELATIVELY WEAK, SO WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME, BUT GIVEN THE TIME OF
YEAR, A STRONG STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS.
LOOKING FURTHER, MOST DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE REMAIN IN GOOD
AGREEMENT REGARDING A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVING INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST WHILE A WEAK TROPICAL DISTURBANCE DRIFTS ACROSS
THE WESTERN GULF. THE ASSOCIATED LOW IS EXPECTED TO LIFT INTO
THE NORTHEAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY, HELPING TO MAINTAIN A STALLED
FRONT ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. TEMPERATURES SHOULD GRADUALLY WARM
BACK TO NEAR-NORMAL BY MIDWEEK, WHILE INCREASED MOISTURE CHANCES
RETURN AFTER THURSDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES LATE IN
THE WEEK AS MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE LOW
IN THE GULF AS IT TRACKS INLAND ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO DEPICT A STRONGER AND
SLOWER- MOVING SYSTEM, WHILE THE GFS REMAINS FASTER WITH THE
WAVE REACHING THE AREA BY THURSDAY. REGARDLESS, INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES APPEAR LIKELY LATE IN THE WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL
PULL MOISTURE FROM THE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH AND EAST. A HEAVY
RAINFALL THREAT AND ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER COULD BE POSSIBLE,
BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW FOR GREATER DETAIL AT THIS TIME.
BY THE WEEKEND, DRIER AIR SHOULD RETURN AS THE UPPER TROUGH
SHIFTS EASTWARD.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE STARTING TO STREAM OVER THE AREA
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. EXPECT CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD,
WITH CEILINGS GRADUALLY LOWERING. CEILINGS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN
VFR, HOWEVER. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM OVERNIGHT,
INCREASING OUT OF THE WSW AFTER ABOUT 13Z. WINDS SHIFT TO MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY AFTER 18Z, WITH GUSTS IN THE 15 TO 20 KTS.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY
NEAR AGS, DNL, AIK, AND OGB THROUGH THE DAY, BUT PROBABILITIES
ARE LOW THAT SHOWERS AFFECT THOSE TERMINALS UNTIL AFTER 18Z,
WHEN THE POTENTIAL FOR TSRA EXISTS. CHANCES REMAIN TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF ACTIVITY AT CAE OR CUB AT THIS TIME, BUT
CAN'T RULE OUT A SHOWER OR STORM LATE IN THE PERIOD THERE.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...DIURNALLY FAVORED CONVECTION
POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON MID WEEK WITH POSSIBLE MORNING
FOG/STRATUS BRINGING RESTRICTIONS. BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THU/FRI.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ND/73
AVIATION...29
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