511
FXUS62 KCAE 251728
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
128 PM EDT TUE AUG 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
LOWERED DEWPOINTS FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS OBSERVATIONS
ARE CONSISTENTLY BELOW MODEL GUIDANCE. OTHERWISE, FORECAST IS ON
TRACK. UPDATED AVIATION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WITH INCREASING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
AS THE WEEK GOES ON.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WITH INCREASING
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS THE WEEK GOES ON.
SKIES ARE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY AT MIDDAY WITH PASSING MID TO
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AND A FEW FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS. THE LATEST
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE FRONT HAS CLEARED THE FORECAST AREA
AS DRY AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER IN WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-50S
TO MID-60S. AS EXPECTED WITH SUCH DRY AIR IN PLACE, THE CHANCE
OF RAIN IS VERY LOW AND SHOULD BE LIMITED TO OUR SOUTHERNMOST
COUNTIES WHICH ARE CLOSEST TO THE BOUNDARY. HIGHS TODAY ARE ON
TRACK TO REACH THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.
BY WEDNESDAY, MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AS THE STALLED
BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH MOVES BACK OVERHEAD. LREF PROBABILITIES
INDICATE A 50-70 PERCENT CHANCE OF PWAT VALUES EXCEEDING 1.75
INCHES. LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST,
ALLOWING DEWPOINTS AND AFTERNOON HUMIDITY TO (UNFORTUNATELY)
RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME LEVELS. COMBINED WITH
INCREASING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING AND MOISTENING PROFILES, THIS
SHOULD SUPPORT INCREASING CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE OVERALL INCREASE
IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE, THOUGH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN TERMS OF
THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF MORE ROBUST CONVECTION. A WIDESPREAD
ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT APPEARS LOW; HOWEVER, STRONGER TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT EACH DAY.
DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL PRODUCING LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS. OVERALL, DAILY RAIN
CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN THE HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY RANGE THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK, WITH SOME DECREASE POSSIBLE
THIS WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN NEAR NORMAL, WHILE
INCREASING DEWPOINTS WILL BRING A RETURN TO MORE MUGGY
CONDITIONS.
AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH DRY AIR IN
PLACE. POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF RESTRICTIONS WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS LARGELY SHIFTED SOUTH OF THE CWA WITH
MUCH DRIER AIR IN PLACE, SEEN BY SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S. MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS AND VFR CONDITIONS
LIKELY CONTINUE THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY WITH LIGHT WINDS OUT OF
THE NORTHEAST. TONIGHT, LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE
WHERE FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WITH
THE LOWEST 1000 FT NEARLY SATURATED. DUE TO THIS, THE 12Z HREF,
RECENT HRRR RUNS, AND LAMP GUIDANCE ARE BEGINNING TO HINT AT
PATCHES OF STRATUS MAINLY AFTER 08-10Z TONIGHT. DUE TO THE
PATCHY NATURE, CONFIDENCE IN IMPACTS AT ANY ONE TERMINAL IS A
BIT LOWER, BUT OGB SEEMS TO HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCES AT THIS
TIME. TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE ASSESSED THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE DAY. ANY RESTRICTIONS SHOULD CLEAR BY 14-16Z WEDNESDAY
WITH LIGHT EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS DEVELOPING ALONG WITH
A SCT CUMULUS DECK. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS INCREASE AFTER
THIS TAF PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS EACH
AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...7
AVIATION...DH
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