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FXUS62 KCAE 281033
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
633 AM EDT TUE APR 28 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
REMOVED TONIGHT WORDING FROM KEY MESSAGE 1 AND MADE OTHER MINOR
CHANGES. UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 12Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE DURING THE MID
TO LATE WEEK PERIOD.
- 2. RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE DURING
THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD.
AT DAYBREAK, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STARTING TO ENTER
THE STATE FROM THE WEST. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS NOT HANDLED THEIR
DISSIPATION WELL AND THERE HAS BEEN RECENT DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
NORTHERN GEORGIA. WITH THIS IN MIND, POPS WERE INCREASED AND
THUNDER WAS ADDED TO THE GRIDS. GIVEN THE TIME OF DAY AND LACK
OF INSTABILITY, SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED BUT THE STRONGER
CELLS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEFLY HEAVY RAINFALL AS THE
MOVE THROUGH THE FA.
ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WELL TO OUR
WEST LATER TODAY, WEAKENING SIGNIFICANTLY BEFORE ARRIVING
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE SEEMS
MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SO OPTED TO
MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER WITH THIS SECOND ROUND OF
ACTIVITY. DEPENDING ON HOW THIS ACTIVITY DEVELOPS PARTS OF THE
FA COULD SEE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL.
A COLD FRONT THEN APPROACHES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES IN, MODERATE WIND SHEAR
COUPLED WITH SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY HINTS AT THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOW-END STORM ORGANIZATION, THOUGH THIS WILL DEPEND LARGELY ON
THE AFOREMENTIONED MORNING CONVECTION AND WHETHER WE CAN CLEAR
OUT AND DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE
COLD FRONT. WHILE THERE SEVERE THREAT IS LOW, A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE. THE DAY
3 SPC OUTLOOK HAS A MARGINAL (1/5) RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER JUST
TO OUR NORTH SO THE BEST RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY
SHOULD BE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES.
THE UNSETTLED WEATHER MAY CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WORK WEEK WITH ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES.
KEY MESSAGE 2: RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.
ENSEMBLE CLUSTER ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT BROAD TROUGHING IS FAVORED
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE US BY LATE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. THE NAEFS SHOWS PWAT VALUES APPROACHING THE 90TH
PERCENTILE OF CLIMATOLOGY WITH IVT NEAR THE 97TH PERCENTILE.
THIS SUPPORTS A HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS FROM FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO
MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. WHILE THERE REMAINS A LARGE SPREAD IN
MODEL GUIDANCE FOR THE TIME PERIOD, THERE IS POTENTIAL TO SEE
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL FOR THIS EVENT. ALTHOUGH WE ARE TOO FAR OUT
TO GET AN ACCURATE DETERMINATION OF RAIN AMOUNTS, WE SHOULD SEE
CONFIDENCE FORECAST AMOUNTS INCREASE AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE
WEEK.
AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
PATCHY MVFR CEILINGS ARE SEEN THIS MORNING AS A DECAYING LINE
OF CONVECTION APPROACHES LATER THIS MORNING. ANOTHER ROUND OF
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EARLY WEDNESDAY.
A STRATUS DECK HAS WORKED INTO AGS/DNL/AIK OVER THE LAST COUPLE
HOURS AND IS SLOWLY DRIFTING TOWARD THE NORTH. THIS IS BRINGING
MVFR CEILINGS THAT MAY BE INTERMITTENT FOR THE NEXT 3-5 HOURS
ACROSS THE AREA WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. WHILE THE LINE OF
CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY IN THE TENNESSEE VALLEY CONTINUES TO
WANE, SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE HAVE
FORMED ACROSS AL/GA, AND SHOULD PUSH NEAR THE AUGUSTA AND
COLUMBIA TERMINALS BETWEEN 13-15Z. THE MAIN LINE OF CONVECTION
SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE ON A DOWNTREND THROUGH THE MORNING, BUT
CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED IN SHOWERS NEAR THE TAF SITES SO HAVE
ADDED A TEMPO GROUP THROUGH 17-18Z FOR THIS ACTIVITY. A RUMBLE
OR TWO OF THUNDER CANNOT FULLY BE RULED OUT WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
THIS AFTERNOON, WINDS PICK UP AROUND 6-8 KTS OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING, THOUGH MID TO HIGH
CLOUDS LIKELY REMAIN IN PLACE MUCH OF THE DAY. TONIGHT, LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS EVENTUALLY BECOME A BIT MORE SOUTHERLY AS
ANOTHER BATCH OF RAIN NEARS THE FA AT THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN POTENTIAL CEILING
RESTRICTIONS INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH THIS ACTIVITY AND THUS
AT LEAST MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED, BUT GUIDANCE IS HINTING IFR
CONDITIONS COULD BE POSSIBLE.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS A SYSTEM MOVES IN WITH
RAIN CHANCES AND ASSOCIATED CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS. PERIODS OF
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
MORE RAIN CHANCES.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...7
AVIATION...DH
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