225
FXUS62 KCAE 261034
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
634 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. BEYOND TODAY, A MORE SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN IS EXPECTED
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. DRY WEATHER ARRIVES FOR THE END OF THE
WORKWEEK.
DISCUSSION
- 1. BEYOND TODAY, A MORE SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN IS EXPECTED
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. DRY WEATHER ARRIVES FOR THE END OF THE
WORKWEEK.
THE ENTIRETY OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BE DICTATED
BY AN INTENSE AND ANOMALOUS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS. THIS IS CURRENTLY ANCHORED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES AND GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING IT SLOWLY
RETROGRADING WESTWARD THROUGH THE WEEK. AS IT DOES SO, DEEP AND
ANOMALOUS 500 HPA TROUGHING IS FORECAST TO SETTLE ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS, WITH MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES (ESPECIALLY BETWEEN
TODAY AND WEDNESDAY) PASSING SOUTHEASTWARD IN THE FLOW. THIS IS
FORECAST TO BEGIN TODAY, WITH A ROUND OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AS A SHORTWAVE PASSES ATOP OUR
REMNANT STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HEAVY RAINFALL IS THE PRIMARY
THREAT WITH ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY.
AS WE GET INTO THE WORK WEEK, GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT MOISTURE
WILL BRIEFLY DECREASE ON MONDAY, RESULTING IN LOWER RAIN
CHANCES. BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, THOUGH, ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS
FORECAST TO PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE BASE OF THE MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH. GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS WILL FORCE
A SURFACE LOW TO DEVELOP ALONG THE LEE SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS,
DRIVING A COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE AREA THAT IS PROGGED TO PASS
THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE DIP IN PWS ON MONDAY WILL BE
BRIEF AS WARM ADVECTION IS FORECAST TO BRING 1.7"-1.9" PWS BACK
INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
FRONT ON TUES/WED. SOME OF THE ML GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SUGGESTING
THAT THE AREA WILL SEE A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ON BOTH TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY WITHIN THIS REGIME. WHILE IT ISN'T OUT OF THE
QUESTION (ESPECIALLY IN THE PEE DEE REGION ON TUESDAY EVENING),
IT SEEMS UNLIKELY THAT THE AREA WILL SEE SEVERE WEATHER. THE
BETTER FORCING AND WIND SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR NORTH WHERE
SPC HAS OUTLINED A SLIGHT RISK FOR STORMS ON D3.
THE ORIENTATION OF THE TROUGH ALSO MAKES IT TOUGH FOR US TO SEE
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION AS WE'LL BE PRETTY FIRMLY BENEATH THE
RIGHT EXIT REGION OF THE JET STREAK THAT WILL HELP REINFORCE THE
TROUGH. GIVEN SHORTWAVES WITHIN THE GENERAL FLOW AND AN
APPROACHING FRONT, EXPECT ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN EARLY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. BUT FOR THOSE HOPING FOR ANY GOOD RAIN, IT LOOKS FEW
AND FAR BETWEEN WITH THE WAY THE UPPER LEVEL SETUP LOOKS MIDWEEK
UNFORTUNATELY. WHAT IS FORTUNATE: SOME DRIER AIR IS FORECAST TO
PUSH INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE WEEK LOOK NEAR NORMAL, WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF TUESDAY WHERE UPPER 90S ARE EXPECTED. THE
DRIER AIR TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK, DRIVEN BY THE DEEP UPPER
TROUGH, SHOULD PROVIDE SOME RESPITE FROM THE OVERALL INTENSE
HEAT/HUMIDITY. GUIDANCE STRUGGLES WITH WHAT WILL HAPPEN WITH THE
TROUGH BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE TO OUR WEST
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY RETROGRADE WESTWARD. THIS ADDS CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY TO THE FORECAST BEYOND FRIDAY.
AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
RESTRICTIONS LIKELY EARLY THIS MORNING, RETURNING TO VFR AFTER
18Z.
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE THIS MORNING. LIGHT
WINDS AND HIGH MOISTURE FAVORS CEILING AND FOG RESTRICTIONS
EARLY THIS MORNING. WITH DRIER AIR ALOFT MOVING INTO THE AREA
CEILINGS HAVE BEEN MORE PATCHY THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY. PATCHY FOG
HAS ALSO DEVELOPED WITH LIGHT WINDS AND BREAKS IN THE CLOUD
COVER. MVFR CEILINGS ARE MOST LIKELY TO 15Z BUT IFR CEILINGS
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE CLOSER TO SUNRISE. MVFR CEILINGS COULD
LINGER INTO THE LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON BUT GUIDANCE HAS
BEEN PERSISTENT IN CLEARING OUT CEILINGS AFTER 18Z.
EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AS
SHORTWAVES STREAM OVER THE REGION HELPING TO PROMOTE STORMS
EVEN OUTSIDE OF THE DIURNAL NORM. THAT SAID, CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
SHOULD PEAK IN THE AFTERNOON TODAY, PARTICULARLY IN THE EASTERN
MIDLANDS INCLUDING 0GB. WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY WITH THE WEAK BOUNDARY MEANDERING ACROSS THE TAF SITES.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS UNLIKELY EARLY THIS
COMING WEEK. BY LATE TUESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY, RAIN CHANCES
BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN WITH ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...PL
AVIATION...CJR
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