410
FXUS62 KCAE 111914
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
314 PM EDT THU JUN 11 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
RAIN CHANCES TRENDING MORE LIKELY FOR NEXT WEEK. AVIATION
DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 18Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES MAY INCREASE THE RISK OF HEAT
RELATED ILLNESS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- 2. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND FRIDAY; RAIN CHANCES
INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES MAY INCREASE THE RISK
OF HEAT RELATED ILLNESS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES IN
THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO HEAT INDEX VALUES
PEAKING FROM 100 TO 105 EACH DAY, SOME OF THE WARMEST VALUES TO
DATE IN THIS EARLY SUMMER SEASON. ALTHOUGH WE COULD REMAIN BELOW
HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA, EARLY SEASON HEAT TENDS TO CONTRIBUTE
TO INCREASED RISK FOR HEAT RELATED ILLNESS SO WE ARE MESSAGING
CAUTION EVEN IF AN ADVISORY IS NOT ISSUED. THE POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION FURTHER LOWERS CONFIDENCE IN
REACHING ADVISORY CONDITIONS.
KEY MESSAGE 2: ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND FRIDAY; RAIN
CHANCES INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
A CLASSIC SUMMERTIME PATTERN HAS SET UP FOR LATE THIS WEEK AND
EARLY WEEKEND. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA WITH UPPER RIDGING GENERALLY SUPPRESSING
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. EVEN WITH RIDGING ALOFT SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND STRONG DAYTIME HEATING WILL
ALLOW CONDITIONS TO DESTABILIZE EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE LATE THIS WEEK
AND OVER THE WEEKEND WITH SOME ENHANCED COVERAGE CLOSER TO THE
COAST ALONG A SEA BREEZE. THIS PATTERN COULD SUPPORT A FEW
STRONGER PULSE TYPE CELLS LEADING TO DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS
BUT A WIDESPREAD THREAT IS UNLIKELY.
MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASES EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH NAEFS IVT
PERCENTILES OVER 97 PERCENT OF CLIMATOLOGY. WITH THIS IN MIND,
EXPECT A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN WITH ABOVE NORMAL MOISTURE (AND
SUBSEQUENTLY LOWER TEMPERATURES GIVEN HIGHER RAIN CHANCES) TO
KICK IN BY MONDAY AND LAST FOR SEVERAL DAYS.
AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
HIGH PRESSURE IS SHIFTING OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON AS LIGHT
SOUTHWESTERLY TO SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS DEVELOP. A SCT
CUMULUS DECK AROUND 4500-6000 FT HAS DEVELOPED AND A COUPLE
SPOTTY SHOWERS HAVE BEEN NOTED IN PARTS OF THE CSRA, BUT
CONFIDENCE IN ANY SHOWER OR WEAK STORM IMPACTING THE TERMINALS
REMAINS TOO LOW TO ADD INTO THE TAF. HEADING INTO THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT, A 20-25 KT LLJ IS EXPECTED TO KEEP SURFACE WINDS
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WHILE FEW CIRRUS PASS OVER THE REGION. AS HAS
BEEN THE CASE THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS, AFTER 15-17Z FRIDAY,
ANOTHER CUMULUS DECK AROUND 4000 TO 6000 FT SHOULD DEVELOP AS
WINDS BECOME A BIT MORE WESTERLY AROUND 5-8 KTS. THERE IS A
SLIGHTLY GREATER CHANCE FOR INCREASED COVERAGE IN AFTERNOON
SHOWERS/STORMS, BUT CONFIDENCE IS ON THE LOW SIDE FOR THIS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
DIURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE INTO THIS WEEKEND. GREATER
RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CJR
AVIATION...DH
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