160
FXUS62 KCAE 270556
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1256 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
WARM TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ON SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY COOLER TEMPS
EARLY NEXT WEEK. SIGNIFICANT WARM UP EXPECT LATE NEXT WEEK.
KEY MESSAGES
1. BENEFICIAL RAINFALL CONTINUES ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY WITH PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN
POSSIBLE.
2. WARM AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND WITH A
SIGNIFICANT WARM UP LATE NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE #1: BENEFICIAL RAINFALL CONTINUES ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY WITH PERIODS OF MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE.
REGIONAL RADAR SHOWING A SWATH OF MODERATE RAINFALL ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL AL/GA ASSOCIATED WITH 850MB MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
AHEAD OF AN EASTWARD MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. INITIAL WAVE OF
STEADY RAIN IS MOVING OUT OF THE SOUTHEASTERN MIDLANDS BUT OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS THIS AREA OF RAIN TO THE WEST SHOULD
MOVE BACK INTO THE CSRA. PWAT VALUES REMAIN HIGH AROUND 1.2-1.3
INCHES AND WILL SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN AS IT MOVES THROUGH. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY LOCATED
ACROSS CENTRAL NC AND INTO NORTHERN GA/AL WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AND FOCUS THE HIGHER RAINFALL
AMOUNTS GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR. ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL TODAY COULD BE AROUND A HALF INCH TO AN INCH ACROSS THE
CSRA AND SOUTHEASTERN MIDLANDS. DUE TO THE EXISTING DROUGHT
CONDITIONS AND HIGH FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES, DO NOT EXPECT
FLOODING TO BE AN ISSUE BUT SOME LOCALIZED NUISANCE FLOODING OF
LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS CANNOT BE RULED OUT IF AND
EXTENDED PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN MATERIALIZES. RAIN
SHOULD DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY ENDING BY LATE
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION.
KEY MESSAGE #2: WARM AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND
WITH A SIGNIFICANT WARM UP LATE NEXT WEEK.
TYPICAL OF SPRING, OUR TEMPERATURES WILL BE FLUCTUATING OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH OUR FIRST WARM UP AGAIN OCCURRING ON
SUNDAY IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING THROUGH THE
REGION TONIGHT WITH WESTERLY 500MB FLOW DEVELOPING OVER THE
WEEKEND AS THE SLOW MOVING UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND
POSITIVE 850MB TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES DEVELOP ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE BACK INTO THE 70S
WITH THE 50TH PERCENTILE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT AND BRING A COUPLE OF COOLER NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURE DAYS
MON/TUE BUT BY MID WEEK A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO
THE PLAINS STATES RESULTING IN DOWNSTREAM UPPER RIDGING OVER
THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
ACCOMPANIED BY A POSITIVE EFI SIGNAL FOR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND 850MB TEMP ANOMALIES OF 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. TEMPERATURES BY THURSDAY INTO THE END OF THE WEEK SHOULD
BE WELL BACK INTO THE 70S AND POSSIBLY SOME NEAR 80 DEGREE
READINGS.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THIS PERIOD WITH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAINING IN PLACE.
WIDESPREAD RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO
IMPACT THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS RAIN HAS NOT BEEN
HEAVY ENOUGH FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS TO CAUSE VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS AT THE TERMINALS BUT WILL LIKELY INCREASE IN
INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS BASED ON OBS UPSTREAM,
LEADING TO MVFR TO IFR VISIBILITIES THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING,
TAPERING OFF INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON. CEILINGS REMAIN MORE
UNCERTAIN AS HIGHER RESOLUTION GUIDANCE INDICATES THEY WILL
LIKELY BOUNCE AROUND WITH LIMITED CONFIDENCE IN PREDOMINANT IFR
CEILINGS. HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CEILINGS AFTER THE RAIN
PUSHES EASTWARD AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO LINGER.
WHILE THERE WILL BE SOME IMPROVEMENT THIS AFTERNOON, IT IS
LIKELY THAT CEILING RESTRICTIONS REMAIN THROUGH THE DAY AT ALL
THE TERMINALS. BLENDED GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FAVOR WIDESPREAD
IFR RESTRICTIONS DEVELOPING TONIGHT.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...ADDITIONAL WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT FRIDAY. SOME IMPROVEMENT BACK TO VFR
POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY. MOISTURE INCREASES MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...23
AVIATION...96
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