631
FXUS62 KCAE 191725
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
125 PM EDT SUN JUL 19 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING APPEARS LIMITED
TO AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-26 CORRIDOR. TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TWO FORMS IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. AVIATION
DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 18Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. CONDITIONAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, MAINLY NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR.
- 2. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION POSSIBLE MONDAY AND
TUESDAY, WITH GREATER COVERAGE OF STORMS EXPECTED MID TO LATE
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: CONDITIONAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, MAINLY NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO HAS FORMED IN THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO, AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN AXIS OF DRIER MID LEVEL
AIR EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE TD INTO THE
LOWER CSRA AND EASTERN MIDLANDS. THIS DRIER AIR ALOFT IS HAVING
A NOTABLE EFFECT ON CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON, WITH
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
AND RATHER FLAT CUMULUS FARTHER WEST AS OF EARLY AFTERNOON. AS
THE DAY PROGRESSES, A SHORT WAVE DROPPING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
WILL ALLOW A SURFACE TROUGH TO SAG FARTHER SOUTHWARD INTO NC BY
THIS EVENING. INCREASED FORCING FOR ASCENT COULD ALLOW FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT ANY ACTIVITY APPEARS TO
REMAIN GENERALLY NORTH OF THE I-26 CORRIDOR BASED ON THE LATEST
CAMS GUIDANCE.
WITH STRONG SURFACE HEATING AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW
70S, SBCAPE OVER 3000 J/KG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. GENEROUS
MIXING SHOULD ALSO YIELD DCAPE VALUES NEAR 1000-1200 J/KG, SO IF
A UPDRAFT CAN BECOME BETTER ESTABLISHED AND COMBAT DRY
ENTRAINMENT IN THE MID-LEVELS, A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE RISK OF DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS. PORTIONS
OF THE MIDLANDS AND PEE DEE GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
I-26 CORRIDOR REMAIN IN SPC'S SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OUT OF 5) FOR
SEVERE WEATHER WITH THE SEVERE PROBABILITIES DROPPING
SIGNIFICANTLY FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST.
KEY MESSAGE 2: ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION POSSIBLE MONDAY AND
TUESDAY, WITH GREATER COVERAGE OF STORMS EXPECTED MID TO LATE
WEEK.
DEEPER MOISTURE FROM TD TWO APPEARS TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA
ON MONDAY, HOWEVER WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY ALOFT AND A SURFACE
TROUGH POSITIONED JUST NORTH OF THE AREA COULD BE A TRIGGER FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES STILL UP AROUND 2 INCHES.
COVERAGE SHOULD BE GREATEST ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA WHERE SYNOPTIC FORCING IS A BIT STRONGER.
MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY WILL STILL BE IN PLACE, WITH AN
ENVIRONMENT NOT MUCH DIFFERENT THAN TODAY, SO THERE WILL BE A
THREAT OF ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
THE WEAK SURFACE TROUGH APPEARS TO RETREAT FARTHER NORTHWARD ON
TUESDAY, WITH THE BULK OF ANY SHORT WAVE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINING NORTH OF THE AREA AS WELL. THIS
SHOULD LIMIT SYNOPTIC FORCING ACROSS THE AREA, WITH MAINLY
ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION EXPECTED.
FAIRLY GOOD SUPPORT FROM THE ENSEMBLES AND GLOBAL MODELS IN THE
PATTERN BECOMING MORE ACTIVE MID TO LATE WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE EASTERN US, WITH A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES
CROSSING THE AREA WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MEANWHILE AT
THE SURFACE, WHILE THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS, A COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE AREA SOMETIME LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, POSSIBLY LINGERING NEARBY INTO THE
WEEKEND. DEEP MOISTURE, WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES UPWARDS
OF 2.00-2.25 INCHES BASED ON THE BLEND, ALONG WITH SYNOPTIC
LIFT WILL SUPPORT HIGHER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD OUTSIDE OF
CONVECTION.
DIURNAL CUMULUS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION IN DAYTIME HEATING
WITH SOME STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG A WEAK TROUGH NORTH OF THE
TERMINALS. HI-RES GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ACTIVITY SHOULD GENERALLY
REMAIN NORTH OF TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON BUT MAYBE SOME STORMS
MAKE IT INTO THE CAE/CUB VICINITY LATER SO HAVE KEPT THE PROB30
GOING THERE, BUT LEFT MENTION OF STORMS OUT OF THE OTHER TAFS.
BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS 10 TO 12 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
AROUND 20 KNOTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING AFTER
SUNSET. SOME CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT BUT
GUIDANCE NOT SHOWING MUCH STRATUS/FOG THREAT TONIGHT.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...POTENTIAL FOR RESTRICTIONS FROM
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JAQ
AVIATION...23
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page