057
FXUS62 KCAE 190024
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
824 PM EDT MON MAY 18 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
RAIN CHANCES FOR LATE THIS WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND CONTINUE
ALTHOUGH COVERAGE COULD BE LOWER THAN BLENDED GUIDANCE
INDICATES. AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LIKELY THROUGH MID-WEEK.
- 2. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE LATE WEEK AND INTO THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LIKELY THROUGH MID-
WEEK.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LIKELY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOW TO MID 90S EXPECTED AND NO OR VERY LITTLE CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE EACH AFTERNOON. PWAT VALUES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW TO
AROUND NORMAL THROUGH WEDNESDAY SO HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL NOT
RISE TO ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. HOWEVER, EARLY SEASON HEAT CAN
CONTRIBUTE TO AN INCREASED RISK OF HEAT-RELATED ILLNESS.
KEY MESSAGE 2: RAIN CHANCES INCREASE LATE WEEK AND INTO THIS
WEEKEND.
ON AVERAGE, MODEL GUIDANCE SHIFTS HIGH PRESSURE EASTWARD LATE
THIS WEEK, LEADING TO INCREASING MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST
FROM THURSDAY THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. PWAT VALUES RISE TO
JUST ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE SEASON. HOWEVER GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS
FROM THE NAEFS ARE ALSO AROUND NORMAL. THIS WOULD POINT TO A
SEASONAL SETUP FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION, POSSIBLY
ENHANCED TO OUR NORTH AND WEST WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDING OVER
THE RIDGE. POPS FROM BLENDED GUIDANCE SHOW VALUES ABOVE WHAT ARE
CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED AND COULD BE TOO HIGH GIVEN THE
SYNOPTIC SET UP.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF BRIEF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE TUESDAY MORNING.
DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 5 TO 8 KNOTS WILL
GRADUALLY BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM BY 06Z. SIMILAR TO
PREVIOUS NIGHTS, ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PROVIDE
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR POSSIBLE BRIEF PREDAWN FOG/STRATUS.
CONFIDENCE IS LIMITED HOWEVER WITH MIXED SIGNALS IN THE GUIDANCE
SO WILL ONLY INCLUDE IN A TEMPO GROUP FOR NOW ALL TERMINALS,
THOUGH AGS MAY HAVE PREVAILING MVFR VSBYS AFTER 08-09Z. WINDS
SHOULD PICK BACK UP BY MID MORNING FROM THE SOUTH AROUND 5 TO 7
KNOTS WITH MAINLY DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS AGAIN.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASED MOISTURE MAY RESULT IN
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS AT THE TERMINALS DUE TO LOW CLOUDS AND/OR FOG
EACH DAY THIS WEEK. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE TOWARDS THE END OF
THE WEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CJR
AVIATION...23
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