184
FXUS62 KCAE 130633
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
233 AM EDT MON JUL 13 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
INCREASED HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT WITH TODAY'S ACTIVITY. AVIATION
DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 06Z TAF.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON, CONTINUING INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT. A COUPLE
STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH
ISOLATED SPOTS OF FLASH FLOODING. LINGERING MOISTURE LEADING
TO SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD AFTERNOON STORMS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON, CONTINUING INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT. A
COUPLE STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG
WITH ISOLATED SPOTS OF FLASH FLOODING. LINGERING MOISTURE
LEADING TO SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD AFTERNOON STORMS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.
THE MID LEVEL LOW IS NOW MEANDERING INTO THE SOUTHERN TENNESSEE
VALLEY PER WV IMAGERY WHILE THE SLOW MOVING SURFACE FRONT IS
APPROACHING THE PEE DEE REGION. THESE FEATURES SHOULD ACT TO
BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AT TIMES INTO EARLY MONDAY
MORNING BEFORE ANOTHER DAY WITH SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED. OVERALL, THERE HAS NOT BEEN MUCH CHANGE
IN THE OUTLOOK FOR TODAY. THE SURFACE FRONT SHOULD GRADUALLY
WORK SOUTH THROUGH THE FA BEFORE STALLING NEAR THE CSRA AS THE
MID LEVEL LOW WORKS INTO NORTHERN AL/GA. MEAN SFC-400MB FLOW OUT
OF THE SOUTHWEST SHOULD ADVECT PWAT'S 1.5-2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL (~2.20-2.40"), CREATING VERY MOIST PROFILES. WITH
SURFACE DEWPOINTS REMAINING IN THE LOW TO MID 70S, MEAN HREF
SOUNDINGS INDICATE SBCAPE VALUES BETWEEN 1500-2000 J/KG SHOULD
DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY, LESS THAN PREVIOUS DAYS MOSTLY DUE TO
COOLER SURFACE TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOW 80S NORTH TO
THE MID TO UPPER 80S SOUTH. WITH MORE MOIST ADIABATIC PROFILES,
DCAPE IS PROGGED TO BE LESS THAN PREVIOUS DAY'S AS WELL. AN
UPTICK IN KINEMATICS FROM THE MID LEVEL LOW SHOULD BRING
INCREASED SHEAR (EBWD ~20-25 KTS) THOUGH, SO A FEW STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WITH THE MAIN HAZARD BEING DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS FROM PRECIP- LOADED DOWNDRAFTS. ACTIVITY LIKELY CARRIES
INTO THE OVERNIGHT, BUT THE SEVERE RISK IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
DURING THIS PERIOD.
THE BIGGER TALKING POINT IS THE HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL
THROUGH THE DAY. AS 00Z GUIDANCE HAS FILTERED IN, THERE IS AN
INCREASED SIGNAL FOR LOCALLY HIGH RAINFALL AMOUNTS. THESE MOIST
ADIABATIC PROFILES, LONG/SKINNY CAPE, A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT,
AND THE AFOREMENTIONED PWAT'S SHOULD ACT TO BRING QUITE
EFFICIENT RAINFALL RATES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING
CONVECTION. THE HREF 24HR QPF LPMM PRODUCT INDICATES A FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD 0.50-1.0" IS A REASONABLE EXPECTATION, BUT IT DOES
INDICATE SPOTS OF 2-5" BEING POSSIBLE, WHICH IS FURTHER
SUPPORTED IN DETERMINISTIC CAMS AND THE 00Z REFS LPMM. THERE IS
LESSER CONFIDENCE IN THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS
WITH SOME SPATIAL VARIABILITY AMONGST DETERMINISTIC CAMS, BUT
WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO NEARLY STALL IN THE
SOUTHERN FA, THIS COULD BE AN AREA TO WATCH MORE CLOSELY. AREAS
IN THE SOUTHEASTERN MIDLANDS NEAR EASTERN BAMBERG COUNTY INTO
ORANGEBURG AND SOUTHERN CALHOUN COUNTIES SAW 1-3" OF RAINFALL
FROM SUNDAY'S ACTIVITY SO THESE SPOTS WOULD BE THE MOST
SENSITIVE TO ADDITIONAL HIGHER AMOUNTS. OVERALL, ISOLATED
INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE IF THESE HIGHER
AMOUNTS ARE REALIZED.
SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS ENSEMBLE METEOGRAMS INDICATE PWAT'S
NEAR TO OVER 2" REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF
OF WEDNESDAY. AS THE MID LEVEL LOW SLOWLY RETROGRADES, DRIER AIR
MAY BEGIN PUSHING INTO THE PEE DEE AND NORTHERN MIDLANDS
WEDNESDAY, BRINGING LOWER RAIN CHANCES HERE. COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY
BEFORE GRADUALLY WARMING DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK BACK
TO NEAR NORMAL. TYPICAL DIURNAL RAIN CHANCES COULD MAKE AN
APPEARANCE LATE IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND, BUT THERE IS
GENEROUS SPREAD IN LREF CLUSTER ANALYSIS AT THIS POINT.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE TOWARDS DAYBREAK....
THE RADAR IS QUIET AT THIS HOUR NEAR THE TERMINALS WITH ANY
SHOWERS ONGOING WELL TO THE NORTH AND WEST. THE REMAINDER OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS SHOULD BE DRY ACROSS THE TERMINALS, THOUGH THERE
IS A NON-ZERO CHANCE FOR A PASSING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR REDUCED
CEILINGS TOWARDS DAYBREAK AND THIS POSSIBILITY HAS BEEN
INDICATED IN THE TAFS AT ALL SITES. ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON
AND EVENING CONVECTION IS EXPECTED, POTENTIALLY RESULTING IN
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS AT THE TERMINALS. CONFIDENCE IN MVFR-IFR
CEILINGS APPEARS TO BE HIGHER MONDAY NIGHT ONCE THE CONVECTION
DISSIPATES.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A GOOD CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DH
AVIATION...7
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