810
FXUS62 KCAE 090010
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
810 PM EDT WED JUL 8 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED DISCUSSION TO REMOVE MENTION OF CONVECTION FOR THIS
EVENING. AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 00Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. HOT CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA, WITH LIMITED
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGHER CHANCES OF
RAIN RETURN THIS WEEKEND WITH A SLOW MOVING FRONT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: HOT CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA, WITH
LIMITED CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGHER
CHANCES OF RAIN RETURN THIS WEEKEND WITH A SLOW MOVING FRONT.
LATEST 500MB ANALYSIS SHOWS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS REMAINS
CENTERED ACROSS THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. THIS
ALONG WITH A STABLE LAYER ALOFT HAS KEPT THE CONVECTION AT BAY
ACROSS THE REGION WITH ONLY AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO DEVELOPED
EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON. EVERYTHING HAS SINCE DISSIPATED AND
EXPECT WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.
A TROUGH OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
EASTWARD TOMORROW AND LIFT NORTHWARD AROUND THE RIDGE OVER THE
AREA. AS IT DOES, THE LATEST GUIDANCE STRETCHES IT OUT SOME. SO,
WHILE THE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ARE A BIT HIGHER TOMORROW
DUE TO THIS, THEY DO REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE (UP TO ~20%)
SUGGESTING SIMILAR WEATHER CONDITIONS TO TODAY. THE LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE FOR FRIDAY SUGGESTS A HIGHER RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS,
MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN COUNTIES. AN APPROACHING
FRONT FOR THE WEEKEND BRINGS A GREATER CHANCE FOR SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO THE REGION. FLOW ALOFT IS ALSO FORECAST
TO BECOME MORE ZONAL, WHICH COULD LEAD TO THE FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION CHANCES LINGERING INTO NEXT WEEK.
AS HAS BEEN EMPHASIZED OVER THE PAST WEEK, THE ONGOING HEAT
REMAINS A CONCERN. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN 3-6
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH HEAT INDICES
REACHING THE LOW TO MID-100S. MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA (108F), SO NO HEAT ADVISORIES ARE
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. CONTINUE TO PRACTICE HEAT SAFETY,
ESPECIALLY WITH PROLONGED HEAT EXPECTED TO PERSIST. PLEASE
REMAIN DILIGENT IF YOU HAVE OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES PLANNED.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY HAVE DISSIPATED ACROSS THE REGION
THIS EVENING WITH ONLY SOME SCATTERED CU REMAINING. WINDS WILL
REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH SUNSET, 10-12 KNOTS. OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT, STRENGTHENING AGAIN THURSDAY MORNING WITH
GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. NO NOTABLE VSBY OR CIG
RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED DURING THE TAF PERIOD WITH ONLY A FEW
ISOLATED STORMS LIKELY AGAIN THURSDAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON
STORMS THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...7/29
AVIATION...42
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