487
FXUS62 KCAE 060008
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
808 PM EDT SAT SEP 5 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
A BIT MORE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE POSSIBLE SUNDAY. AVIATION
DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1. ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
SUNDAY.
A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SAG THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY. COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAY'S FORECASTS THE
BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO BE FURTHER NORTH, ALLOWING FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS AS A PROMINENT SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE
AREA IN THE AFTERNOON. BY MID DAY, THE BOUNDARY COULD STILL BE
BISECTING THE CWA. ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL BE HIGHER THAN THE
PREVIOUS DAY WITH PWAT VALUES CLOSE TO 1.8 TO 2 INCHES. AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES INTO THE REGION EXPECT, SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS STORMS TO DEVELOP, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF WHERE
THE BOUNDARY ENDS UP. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT A DOWNBURST
WIND THREAT WITH MLCAPE VALUES FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG AND DCAPE
VALUES CLOSE TO 1000 J/KG. LINGERING CLOUD COVER COULD PUT A
DAMPER ON THIS ENVIRONMENT, ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS,
BUT IF CLEARING IS SEEN THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
HIGHER.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
SOME FOG/LOW STRATUS POSSIBLE NEAR DAYBREAK.
STORMS HAVE PUSHED SOUTH OF ALL TAF LOCATIONS, WITH SOME LIGHT
RAIN STILL POSSIBLE ON THE BACKSIDE FOR AN HOUR OR SO. FOR NOW,
BRIEF TEMPO GROUPS HAVE BEEN INCLUDED THROUGH 01Z.
WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT UNDER MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR FOG OR LOW STRATUS AT THE
TERMINALS BETWEEN 09-14Z ON SUNDAY. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE MONITORED TONIGHT FOR THE NEED FOR ADDITIONAL WIDESPREAD
RESTRICTIONS. VFR THEN EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY, WITH
POSSIBLE CONVECTION ONCE AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...DIURNAL STORM CHANCES CONTINUE
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ND/73
AVIATION...73
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