131
FXUS62 KCAE 051126
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
626 AM EST FRI DEC 5 2025
SYNOPSIS
PERIODS OF RAIN REMAIN POSSIBLE TODAY, WITH HIGHEST CHANCES IN
THE EASTERN MIDLANDS AND LOWER CSRA. UNSETTLED WEATHER THEN
CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND AND POTENTIALLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE THEN ANTICIPATED FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK
PERIOD WHILE TEMPERATURES REMAIN ON THE COOLER SIDE.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE TO DECREASE FOR THE REST OF THE DAY,
WITH HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR RAIN IN THE EASTERN MIDLANDS AND
LOWER CSRA.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES THAN YESTERDAY.
TODAY AND TONIGHT: SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO MOVE
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AS OF THIS WRITING, BUT THERE IS A
CONTINUED DOWNWARD TREND IN THE OVERALL COVERAGE. IN ADDITION,
THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DECREASE FOR THE REST OF THE
DAY DUE TO A COUPLE OF CHANGES IN THE FORECAST. THE MAIN
SHORTWAVE THAT BROUGHT RAIN THIS MORNING HAS GENERALLY MOVED
THROUGH THE AREA, WITH SUBSIDENCE MOVING IN BEHIND THIS
ACTIVITY. LATEST SPC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT IS
LOCATED NEAR THE COAST, SO THERE IS A LACK OF SUPPORT OVER OUR
FORECAST AREA. ADDITIONAL PULSES OF ENERGY ARE FORECAST TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA TODAY, WHICH COULD BRING ADDITIONAL SHOWER
ACTIVITY. HI- RES GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN UPTICK IN ACTIVITY MID TO
LATE MORNING, BUT GIVEN THE LOCATION OF THE PLACEMENT OF RAIN
AT THE INITIALIZATION BEING TOO FAR NORTH OF REALITY, I AM NOT
CONFIDENT THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MIDLANDS. THE
BETTER CHANCES FOR THIS ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE THE EASTERN
MIDLANDS/LOWER CSRA TO THE LOW COUNTRY. THAT SAID, CAN'T RULE
OUT SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. AS A RESULT OF
THE LATEST TRENDS, DID LOWER POPS BY 20-40% OR MORE FROM I-20
AND AREAS NORTH AND WEST AND LOWERED POPS EAST OF I-20, BUT NOT
AS MUCH.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES THIS WEEKEND
- RAINFALL TOTALS TRENDING LOWER
- CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
MID LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH AND KEEPING THE WEATHER
UNSETTLED. GUIDANCE IS SHOWING SOME DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE
FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH A STRONG GRADIENT IN PWATS
ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY, WHICH WILL FOCUS THE RAINFALL AXIS A
BIT FURTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUS FORECASTS. PWATS RANGE FROM AROUND
NORMAL IN THE NORTHWESTERN MIDLANDS TO AROUND 150 PERCENT OF NORMAL
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST MIDLANDS INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN. OVERALL
FORCING REMAINS WEAK SATURDAY BUT CONTINUED ISENTROPIC LIFT AND A
SURFACE BOUNDARY SHOULD PROVIDE CONTINUED CHANCES OF RAIN, FOCUSED
SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR.
WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND SOME PRECIPITATION WILL AGAIN KEEP
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS EXPECTED AROUND 50 TO THE LOWER
50S. THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH ON SUNDAY WITH SOME
SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN COASTAL LOW
DEVELOPMENT SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL KEEP THE CHANCE
OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST ALTHOUGH AGAIN FOCUSED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR TO
SATURDAY BUT SLIGHTLY WARMER ACROSS THE EASTERN MIDLANDS WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH MONDAY WITH LINGERING RAIN CHANCES
- DRIER AND COOLER AIR MASS SETTLES OVER THE REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY KEEPING LOW
CHANCES OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST BEFORE DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE
REGION IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA. COLD HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT WITH STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN LOWS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 20S. A RETURN TO A MORE DRY AND COOL PATTERN RETURNS MID
WEEK WITH ENSEMBLE MEAN PWATS AROUND 50 PERCENT OF NORMAL TUE/WED
WITH 500MB FLOW GENERALLY ZONAL ACROSS THE REGION WITH UPPER TROUGH
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND WEST COAST RIDGING. EC EFI CONTINUES TO
HIGHLIGHT ANOMALOUSLY LOW TEMPERATURES AND EXPECT THE BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TO PERSIST.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TO START THE TAF PERIOD, BUT GRADUALLY
WORSENING CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED.
VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE BEING REPORTED AT ALL 5 TAF
TERMINALS AS OF THIS WRITING, BUT LOW CEILINGS ARE BEING
REPORTED UPSTREAM. EXPECT THESE CEILINGS TO WORK THEIR WAY INTO
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, GRADUALLY LOWERING
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS, WITH LIFR CONDITIONS REMAINING
POSSIBLE AFTER ABOUT 00Z. THE CHANCES FOR RAIN HAVE DECREASED
SINCE THE LAST TAF FORECAST. THEREFORE, HAVE DROPPED THE
PREDOMINANT -RA GROUPS AND ADDED PROB30 GROUPS FOR THE CAE,
CUB, AGS, AND DNL. DID INCLUDE A TEMPO FROM FOR RAIN AT OGB AS
THE CHANCES FOR RAIN ARE HIGHER THERE. WHATEVER SHOWER ACTIVITY
DEVELOPS IS ANTICIPATED TO BE DONE BY MID AFTERNOON. LIGHT EAST
TO NORTHEAST WINDS 5 KTS OR LESS EXPECTED THIS MORNING, BEFORE
SWITCHING TO NORTH OR NORTHWEST AROUND 19Z OR SO. WINDS BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN OVERNIGHT.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE
INTO SATURDAY AS LOW CEILINGS CONTINUE AND ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN
REMAINS POSSIBLE, BUT CHANCES FOR RAIN HAVE DECREASED. RAIN
CHANCES DIMINISH SUNDAY AND INTO THE EARLY WEEK, BUT CEILING
RESTRICTIONS MAY REMAIN IN PLACE AT LEAST PART OF SUNDAY.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
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