410
FXUS62 KCAE 310614
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
214 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
RAIN CHANCES HAVE TRENDED DOWNWARD FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
OTHERWISE, VERY LITTLE HAS CHANGED IN THE FORECAST THINKING.
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR THE 06Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. WARMING TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING RAINFALL CHANCES
THROUGH THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: WARMING TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING RAINFALL CHANCES
THROUGH THE WEEK.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING SURFACE MOISTURE CAN BE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK. UPPER RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER
THE REGION TODAY AND SLIDES OFFSHORE LATER THIS WEEK IN RESPONSE
TO A DEVELOPING TROUGH ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKIES. THIS
TROUGH IS ALSO EXPECTED TO AID IN AMPLIFYING THE RIDGE. AT THE
SURFACE, A BERMUDA HIGH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A COMBINATION OF THESE FEATURES LEADS
TO GENERALLY SOUTHERLY FLOW, BRINGING IN THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
AND INCREASING MOISTURE TO THE AREA. TODAY CONTINUES TO TREND
DRYER, WITH CHANCES FOR DIURNAL SHOWERS OR STORMS ARRIVING
TOMORROW. OVERALL RAIN CHANCES FOR THE LAST HALF OF THE WEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND HAVE TRENDED DOWNWARD IN THE LATEST BLENDED
GUIDANCE, LIKELY DUE TO SLIGHTLY DRYER AIR MOVING INTO THE
REGION. AN APPROACHING FRONT TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK BRINGS
SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OR STORMS, WITH THE HIGHEST
CHANCES IN THE WEST. COOLER TEMPS, RELATIVELY SPEAKING, ARE
FORECAST TO MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE TAF PERIOD.
SCT-BKN CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE MUCH OF TODAY, THOUGH ANY CIGS WILL
REMAIN VFR, AND GENERALLY REMAIN BETWEEN 4KFT AND 12KFT. SFC WINDS
SHOULD MAINTAIN A SE TO S DIRECTION, BEGINNING AT 5 KTS OR LESS THIS
MORNING, THEN INCREASING TO ABOUT 6 TO 9 KNOTS AFTER 14Z. A FEW VERY
LIGHT SHOWERS MAY POP UP THIS AFTERNOON AROUND AGS/DNL, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW FOR MENTION IN THE TAFS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SOME MORNING STRATUS IS POSSIBLE
EACH MORNING BY MID-WEEK AS MOISTURE INCREASES BUT NO NOTABLE
WEATHER SYSTEMS OR WIDESPREAD IMPACTFUL RESTRICTIONS ARE
EXPECTED UNTIL THE WEEKEND.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...29
AVIATION...EC
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