338
FXUS62 KCAE 110549
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
149 AM EDT SAT JUL 11 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED KEY MESSAGES FOR DECLINING STORM CHANCES TONIGHT.
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 06Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. SCATTERED STORMS EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS SUNDAY AND MONDAY ASSOCIATED
WITH A FRONT.
- 2. HOT, HUMID, AND BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH COOLER
CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT LATE WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: SCATTERED STORMS EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON
WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS SUNDAY AND MONDAY ASSOCIATED
WITH A FRONT.
A SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA,
SPARKING A FEW SHOWERS. EXPECT THE ACTIVITY TO PROGRESS
EASTWARD INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS, BUT IT SHOULD REMAIN ON
THE WEAKER SIDE.
SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON WITH
COVERAGE SIMILAR TO FRIDAY. FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
MORE ZONAL IN RESPONSE TO A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TRANSLATING
AROUND A LARGER SCALE TROUGH. WEAKER SHORTWAVES ARE FORECAST TO
MOVE OVER THE AREA TODAY, SPARKING THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. IN
ADDITION, PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE WITH THE SPC 00Z HREF
MEAN STILL SHOWING VALUES GREATER THAN 2 INCHES OVER MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. ENVIRONMENT MAY BE SLIGHTLY WEAKER TO SUPPORT
SEVERE STORMS BASED ON HIRES FORECAST SOUNDINGS WITH WEAKER
CLOUD LAYER SHEAR AND NOT QUITE AS UNSTABLE AN ENVIRONMENT BUT
WE REMAIN IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR TODAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A
FEW STORMS TO PRODUCE STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS.
AS A FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. BLENDED
GUIDANCE SUPPORTS WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS NEAR THE FRONT
EACH DAY, FAVORING THE AFTERNOONS WHERE MODERATE INSTABILITY
WILL LIKELY DEVELOP. WHILE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
ANTICIPATED, ESPECIALLY MONDAY WHERE INSTABILITY MAY STRUGGLE
TO DEVELOP, A FEW STORMS COULD APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS. STORMS
WILL LIKELY HAVE EFFICIENT RAIN RATES AS EVIDENCED BY THE LATEST
FORECAST SOUNDING. ALTHOUGH STORM MOTION IS EXPECTED TO BE FAST ENOUGH
TO PREVENT MAJOR FLOODING CONCERNS, IT WILL BE WORTH MONITORING
FOR THE POTENTIAL OF TRAINING AS THE FLOW LOOKS TO BE GENERALLY
PARALLEL TO THE FRONT. ENSEMBLE MEANS THEN FAVOR DRIER AIR
PUSHING INTO THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 2: HOT, HUMID, AND BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH
COOLER CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT LATE WEEKEND INTO
NEXT WEEK.
HOT, HUMID, AND BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH TODAY BEING THE
WARMEST OF THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE INCREASED CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON MAY LIMIT THE EXTENT OF OUR HIGH
TEMPERATURE AND HEAT INDEX VALUES, BUT EXPECT TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT
INDICES FOR TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S AND DEW
POINTS REMAINING IN THE 70S. BLENDED GUIDANCE IQR CONTINUES TO
FAVOR LOWER TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT
AND WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND CONVECTION EACH DAY. GIVEN THE RECENT
HOT WEATHER, THE NBM TAKES THAT INTO ACCOUNT AND WILL LIKELY
HAVE A WARM BIAS. SO, I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF WE END UP
TOWARD THE COOLER END OF THE IQR EARLY IN THE WEEK AHEAD. THIS
AIR MASS IS EXPECTED BE VERY HUMID; HOWEVER, WITH BLENDED DEW
POINTS CONTINUING IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD, HOWEVER AFTERNOON CONVECTION COULD RESULT IN TEMPORARY
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS.
CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED AND EXPECT HIGH LEVEL CEILINGS AND
LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. PATCHY MORNING FOG IS POSSIBLE AT AGS DUE TO EARLIER
RAINFALL AT THE TERMINAL, BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO ADD ANY
RESTRICTIONS INTO THE TAF AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM
THE WEST BY MID-MORNING SATURDAY, GUSTING UPWARDS OF 20KT AT
TIMES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL BE TYPICAL FOR
MID-SUMMER, WITH AN EXTENSIVE CUMULUS FIELD DEVELOPING BY
AFTERNOON ALONG WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION. HAVE INCLUDED A
PROB30 GROUP AT ALL TERMINALS FROM 19-24Z TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL AND ACCOMPANYING FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS AND
GUSTY WINDS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CHANCES
FOR AFTERNOON STORMS SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...29
AVIATION...JAQ
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