723
FXUS62 KCAE 081155
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
755 AM EDT WED JUL 8 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 12Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. HOT CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA, WITH LIMITED CHANCES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. HIGHER CHANCES OF
RAIN RETURN THIS WEEKEND WITH A SLOW MOVING FRONT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: HOT CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA, WITH
LIMITED CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
HIGHER CHANCES OF RAIN RETURN THIS WEEKEND WITH A SLOW MOVING
FRONT.
MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD NORTHWARD TODAY, PARTIALLY IN RESPONSE TO A
TROUGH OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. DRY MID-LEVEL AIR IS
ALSO EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE, WHICH IS FORECAST TO MIX DOWN
TO THE SURFACE IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LEAD TO LOWER DEW
POINTS THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST, AND SUBSEQUENTLY LOWER HEAT
INDEX VALUES. HOWEVER, HEAT INDICES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO REACH
THE 100-105F RANGE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON, WITH A FEW
LOCATIONS SLIGHTLY HIGHER. IN ADDITION, THIS DRIER AIR WILL LEAD
TO JUST A LOW (UP TO ~10-15%) CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM, MAINLY IN THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA.
THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE EASTWARD TOMORROW AND LIFT NORTHWARD AROUND THE
RIDGE OVER THE AREA. AS IT DOES, THE LATEST GUIDANCE STRETCHES
IT OUT SOME. SO, WHILE THE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ARE A BIT
HIGHER TOMORROW DUE TO THIS, THEY DO REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE (UP
TO ~20%). LOWER RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE ON FRIDAY AS WEAK FORCING
CONTINUES. AN APPROACHING FRONT FOR THE WEEKEND BRINGS A
GREATER CHANCE FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO THE
REGION. FLOW ALOFT IS ALSO FORECAST TO BECOME MORE ZONAL, WHICH
COULD LEAD TO THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION CHANCES
LINGERING INTO NEXT WEEK.
AS HAS BEEN EMPHASIZED OVER THE PAST WEEK, THE ONGOING HEAT
REMAINS A CONCERN. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN 3-6
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH HEIGHT INDICES
REACHING THE LOW TO MID-100S. MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA (108F), SO NO HEAT ADVISORIES ARE
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. CONTINUE TO PRACTICE HEAT SAFETY,
ESPECIALLY WITH PROLONGED HEAT EXPECTED TO PERSIST. PLEASE
REMAIN DILIGENT IF YOU HAVE OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES PLANNED.
AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
A DRIER AIR MASS IN PLACE TODAY SHOULD YIELD RELATIVELY QUIET
WEATHER WITH ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON, TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST. OTHERWISE TYPICAL DIURNAL CUMULUS IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY 15Z WITH SURFACE HEATING AND SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS EXPECTED BY 16Z WITH SOME GUSTS TO 15 TO 18
KNOTS DURING THE AFTERNOON DUE TO DEEP MIXING. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH
TO AROUND 5 KNOTS BY 09/02Z. LOW CHANCES OF MORNING FOG/STRATUS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...DAILY RAIN CHANCES AND POSSIBLE
RESTRICTIONS CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...29
AVIATION...96
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