268
FXUS62 KCAE 250004
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
804 PM EDT TUE MAR 24 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEK HAVE GENERALLY
DECREASED. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 00Z TAFS
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE LATE WEEK BEFORE
TEMPERATURES FALL CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH A BACKDOOR FRONT
MOVING IN LATE FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE LATE
WEEK BEFORE TEMPERATURES FALL CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH A BACKDOOR
FRONT MOVING IN LATE FRIDAY.
A COOL NIGHT (TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN AVERAGE) CAN BE
EXPECTED. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA COULD DIP DOWN TO THE MID TO UPPER 30S AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. THERE IS SOME QUESTION
JUST HOW COLD IT WILL GET; HOWEVER, AS SOME HIGH CLOUDS AND SOME
WIND IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER COULD HINDER IDEAL COOLING
CONDITIONS SOMEWHAT. AFTER TONIGHT, A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS RIDGING SLIDES OVER THE AREA
FROM THE WEST. BY FRIDAY, THE 500 MB HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO BE
ABOVE THE NAEFS 97.5 PERCENTILE OVER THE AREA, AIDING IN TEMPS
BEING WELL ABOVE AVERAGE ONCE AGAIN. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT ANOTHER STRONG, ALBEIT MOSTLY DRY, FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY. AS OF
NOW, JUST SOME SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION EXIST IN THE
NORTHERN FORECAST AREA WITH THIS FRONT, WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE
AT THIS POINT DUE IN PART TO THE TIMING OF IT. BEHIND THIS
FRONT, MODELS ARE INDICATING VERY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE (NAEFS
NEAR THE CLIMATOLOGICAL MAX) MOVING IN, CAUSING A PRETTY STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT RESULTING IN GUSTY WINDS. CONFIDENCE IS ALSO
FAIRLY HIGH AT THIS POINT THAT VERY DRY AIR MOVES IN AS WELL,
RESULTING IN ADDITIONAL FIRE DANGER CONCERNS AS WE HEAD INTO THE
WEEKEND. WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE MONITORING FOR ANY WIND AND/OR
FIRE HIGHLIGHTS.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR CLOUD COVER IS FORECAST TO HANG AROUND THE AREA FOR MUCH OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE MID-
ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER WITH VERY DRY LOW-
LEVEL AIR LOCKED INTO PLACE AND EASTERLY FLOW THE PRIMARY WIND
COMPONENT. AT AGS/DNL/OGB, WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT ATOP THIS
SURFACE HIGH HAS CONTINUED TO YIELD A PERSISTENT CLOUD DECK
AROUND 4-5 KFT THROUGHOUT THE DAY, WITH THIS SHOWING SOME SIGNS
OF SLOWLY EXPANDING NORTHWARD WITH TIME. EXPECTING THIS KIND OF
WEATHER TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS THE PATTERN REMAINS RELATIVELY STAGNANT AND
PERSISTENT ISENTROPIC LIFT REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AUGUSTA
SITES. REGARDLESS, THESE CIGS WILL REMAIN VFR ALTHOUGH MAY COME
CLOSE TO THE UPPER END OF MVFR AT TIMES. WINDS SHOULD SLOWLY
VEER FROM THE EASTERLY DIRECTION TO SOUTHEASTERLY AS WE GET
TOWARDS THE END OF THE 24 HOUR PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT, USHERING IN ANOTHER REINFORCING COOL AND DRY AIR MASS
FOR THE WEEKEND. SOME GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY BEHIND THE
FRONT.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...29
AVIATION...PL
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