388
FXUS62 KCAE 012348
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
748 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. GENERALLY DRY WEATHER AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES OVER 100F THIS WEEK.
- 2. ACTIVE WEATHER AND DECREASING TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE THIS
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1. GENERALLY DRY WEATHER AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES OVER 100F THIS
WEEK.
ANY SPOTTY SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED THIS EVENING WITH DRY
CONDITIONS LIKELY PERSISTING OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
EASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEK BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST
BY THURSDAY. BOTH DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE REMAIN IN
GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS EVOLUTION. NAEFS GUIDANCE INDICATES
500-MB HEIGHTS WILL APPROACH THE CLIMATOLOGICAL MAX INTO
THURSDAY BEFORE DECREASING SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE WEEKEND. WITH THE
RIDGE MOVING MORE OVERHEAD, GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THE REST OF THE WEEK. THE MAIN CONCERN
REMAINS TO BE THE HEAT, WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE UPPER 90
EACH DAY. IN ADDITION, THE INCREASED HUMIDITY WILL RESULT IN
HEAT INDEX VALUES EXCEEDING 100F DURING THE AFTERNOONS THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR CONDITIONS TO
APPROACH HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA LATE IN THE WEEK, THOUGH THIS
WILL DEPEND LARGELY ON HOW WELL THE ATMOSPHERE MIXES EACH DAY.
REGARDLESS, HEAT-RELATED ILLNESSES WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE.
KEY MESSAGE 2. ACTIVE WEATHER AND DECREASING TEMPERATURES
POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND.
GLOBAL ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTS THE RIDGE WILL
RETROGRADE WESTWARD, ALLOWING A TROUGH TO DIG SOUTHWARD ALONG
THE EAST COAST. AS THIS OCCURS, CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. COOLER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AND DRIER
AIR ARE ALSO ANTICIPATED BEHIND THE FRONT.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF POSSIBLE PREDAWN
FOG AT FAVORED LOCATIONS.
UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD EASTWARD TOWARD THE CAROLINAS AND
SHOULD SUPPORT GENERALLY DRY AND HOT CONDITIONS. CUMULUS HAS
GENERALLY DISSIPATED AFTER SUNSET AND SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR
OVERNIGHT. POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR VSBYS AT FOG PRONE AGS/OGB DURING
THE 08-12Z TIME FRAME SO INCLUDED A TEMPO FOR THIS POSSIBILITY
OTHERWISE CONFIDENCE TOO LOW AT OTHER TERMINALS TO INCLUDE IN
THE FORECAST. OVERALL, FOG APPEARS LESS LIKELY WEDNESDAY MORNING
COMPARED TO THIS PAST MORNING (WHICH WAS PATCHY). WINDS
GENERALLY OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY, ALTHOUGH REMAINING
RELATIVELY LIGHT, AROUND 5KTS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...EARLY MORNING RESTRICTIONS STILL
POSSIBLE DESPITE A DRIER OUTLOOK FOR THE WEEK. INCREASED CHANCES
OF RESTRICTIONS OVER THE WEEKEND WITH INCREASED CHANCES OF
CONVECTION WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DH/29
AVIATION...96
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page