513
FXUS62 KCAE 292344
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
744 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR THE 00Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. INCREASED THREAT OF IMPACTFUL HEAT THIS WEEK AND INTO THE
INDEPENDENCE DAY WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: INCREASED THREAT OF IMPACTFUL HEAT THIS WEEK AND
INTO THE INDEPENDENCE DAY WEEKEND.
A STRONG UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE TN VALLEY AND LOWER MS
VALLEY WILL MIGRATE SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE OH VALLEY BY
MID WEEK AND THEN BECOME CENTERED OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC BY THE
END OF THE WEEK. THIS 500MB HIGH IS ANOMALOUSLY STRONG WITH
HEIGHTS AT OR ABOVE THE 99TH PERCENTILE RELATIVE TO CLIMATOLOGY.
AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS CLOSER TO THE REGION, TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE WARMING FURTHER WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND
100 DEGREES FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. ENSEMBLES INDICATE HIGHLY
ANOMALOUS 850MB TEMPERATURES OVER THE 90TH PERCENTILE AND ECMWF
EFI ALSO SHOWING ANOMALOUS SIGNALS IN THE MAX TEMPERATURE FIELD.
ENSEMBLES INDICATE LOWERING ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE THROUGH MID TO
LATE WEEK WITH PWATS FALLING BELOW 50 PERCENT OF NORMAL
SUPPORTING A GENERALLY DRY FORECAST WHEN COMBINED WITH THE
STRONG SUBSIDENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE. THIS SHOULD ALSO RESULT IN
BETTER DEEP MIXING AND LOWER DEWPOINTS AND THEREFORE LOWER HEAT
INDICES MID TO LATE WEEK DESPITE THE INCREASING TEMPERATURES.
MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND AND LIKELY WILL
YIELD HEAT INDICES NEAR HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA WHICH MAY RESULT
IN THE NEED FOR SOME HEAT PRODUCTS. REGARDLESS, THROUGHOUT THE
ENTIRE WEEK AND FORECAST PERIOD ANYONE SPENDING A SIGNIFICANT
AMOUNT OF TIME OUTSIDE SHOULD TAKE NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS TO
HANDLE THE HEAT AND STAY HYDRATED. BE SURE TO MAKE HEAT SAFETY
PREPARATIONS NOW AND HAVE A PLAN TO MONITOR CHILDREN, THE
ELDERLY, PETS, AND ANYONE WITHOUT ADEQUATE INDOOR COOLING.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AS CONVECTION WANES....
A DECAYING THUNDERSTORM IS CURRENTLY PASSING NEAR DNL AT THIS
HOUR AND WILL LIKELY PRODUCE LIGHTNING WITHIN 10 MILES OF AGS.
THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE AUGUSTA AREA BY 01Z. MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING
AT ALL TERMINALS. THEY'LL BE A LOW RISK FOR PATCHY FOG TONIGHT,
MAINLY AT AGS BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT
INCLUSION IN THE TAF THERE. DRY CONDITIONS AND NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON TUESDAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS LESS LIKELY
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS RIDGING BUILDS OVERHEAD. BRIEF
EARLY MORNING RESTRICTIONS ALSO POSSIBLE THIS WEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...23/CJR
AVIATION...7
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