512
FXUS62 KCAE 300601
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
201 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE TODAY, HOWEVER, GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO TREND LOWER WITH OVERALL RAINFALL COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS.
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY,
BRINGING HEAVY RAINFALL AND ISOLATED FLOODING.
- 2. AFTER A COLD FRONT ON MONDAY, THE PATTERN BECOMES MORE
UNCERTAIN.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TODAY, BRINGING HEAVY RAINFALL AND ISOLATED FLOODING.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL
CONTINUE MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE CAROLINA'S TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE, A STALLED BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT NORTH AND ADVECT A DEEP
PLUME OF MOISTURE BACK INTO THE FORECAST AREA, WITH PWAT VALUES
INCREASING TO 1.7-2" EARLY THIS MORNING. WEAK WIND FIELDS HAVE
SUPPORTED SLOW STORM MOTIONS AND BACKBUILDING CONVECTION SO FAR.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATE LONG, SKINNY CAPE PROFILES,
WHICH FAVOR EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCTION AS MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES
INTERACT WITH THE STALLED BOUNDARY.
RECENT OBSERVATIONS AND CAM GUIDANCE SHOWED IMPRESSIVE RAINFALL
RATES EARLIER; HOWEVER, THE HEAVIEST AND MOST PERSISTENT
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN PRIMARILY NEAR THE CSRA (MAINLY
SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CWA AS WELL). SO FAR TONIGHT, LIGHT
SHOWERS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME MAKING IT UP TO THE CENTRAL
MIDLANDS. HI-RES MODELS REMAIN SET ON THE ACTIVITY EVENTUALLY
BREAKING THROUGH AND MAKING IT FURTHER INTO SC AROUND DAWN, BUT
THE LATEST HREF GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND LOWER WITH OVERALL
RAINFALL COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS.
A FEW BREAKS IN THE ACTIVITY ARE POSSIBLE AFTER DAYBREAK,
HOWEVER, WITH PWATS ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE AND STRONGER
UPPER-LEVEL FORCING, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP AS THE FRONT HANGS AROUND THROUGH THE DAY.
AS A RESULT, PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
MOST OF THE DAY WITH A LIMITED BUT CONTINUED THREAT OF ISOLATED
FLASH FLOODING.
KEY MESSAGE 2: AFTER A COLD FRONT ON MONDAY, THE PATTERN
BECOMES MORE UNCERTAIN.
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THE STALLED BOUNDARY BACK TO OUR
SOUTH ON SUNDAY. ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
WITH COOLER AND DIRER AIR USHERING IN BEHIND. DESPITE THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE, POOR LAPSE RATES SHOULD LIMIT INSTABILITY AND
SUPPRESS MOST CONVECTION, WITH ONLY SLIGHT POPS LINGERING NEAR
THE CSRA, CLOSEST TO THE BOUNDARY.
BEYOND THAT THE FORECAST BECOMES UNCERTAIN. MOST GUIDANCE
INDICATES A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAINFALL ON MONDAY AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD
FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW AND BRING IN COOLER AND DRIER
NORTHERLY FLOW TO THE REGION. MODELS BEGIN TO DIFFER BY MIDWEEK
WITH SOME BRINGING IN ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN. HOWEVER, A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED INTO THE LATER PART OF THE
WEEK, STILL BELOW NORMAL THOUGH. MOISTURE SLOWLY RETURNS AS WELL
BRINGING BACK THE POTENTIAL FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION POTENTIALLY
BY FRIDAY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
PERIODS OF SHOWERS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN THE CSRA WITH BRIEF
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
WHILE VFR CONDITIONS ARE MOSTLY IN PLACE, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
OGB, LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY LEAD TO BRIEF RESTRICTIONS
DEVELOPING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS, FAVORING THE CSRA WITH A
STALLED FRONT JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. WHILE LAMP
PROBABILITIES HAVE BEEN DECREASING SOMEWHAT FOR IFR CEILINGS FOR
THE AUGUSTA TERMINALS, WITH IFR JUST TO THE WEST AND FEW CLOUDS
BELOW 1000 FEET ALREADY AT AGS, THINK IT IS REASONABLE FOR
TEMPORARY IFR RESTRICTIONS. HIGHER PROBABILITY OF VFR CONDITIONS
NORTHEAST, FARTHER AWAY FROM THE FRONT. GENERALLY UNSETTLED
PATTERN TODAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT MUCH OF
THE DAY. HIGHER RESOLUTION GUIDANCE DOES NOT FAVOR SIGNIFICANT
DESTABILIZATION TODAY SO HAVE LEFT OUT ANY MENTION OF TS. WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TODAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...UNSETTLED WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK UNTIL DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION MID-WEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ND
AVIATION...96
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