678  
FXUS62 KCAE 250224  
AFDCAE  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC  
1024 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2020  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWEST FROM NORTH CAROLINA  
TONIGHT AND BECOME STATIONARY NEAR THE AREA MONDAY. HIGH  
PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH FROM THE MID ATLANTIC AS A WEAK TROUGH  
DEVELOPS ALONG THE COAST RESULTING IN ONSHORE FLOW. THIS WILL  
LEAD TO UNSETTLED AND COOLER WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEK. A COLD  
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA NEXT WEEKEND.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/
 
 
BOUNDARIES CURRENTLY COLLIDING FROM KERSHAW DOWN TO BURKE COUNTY  
AS OF 830 PM, CREATING THE NECESSARY SURFACE CONVERGENCE WHERE  
THE LAST POCKET OF INSTABILITY EXISTS TO PROVIDE A COUPLE MORE  
HOURS OF THUNDERSTORMS, ONE OR TWO LOCALLY STRONG. MID LEVELS  
REMAIN WARM, SO THE CHANCES OF A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM, WHILE  
NONZERO, ARE NOT VERY GREAT. SOME PEA SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS  
TO 45 MPH APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN THREAT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF  
THE EVENING, ALONG WITH SOME MOMENTARILY SLOW TRAFFIC DUE TO  
HEAVY RAIN.  
 
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY LINGER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH  
PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE, RESULTING IN ANOTHER MILD NIGHT  
WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70. THERE COULD BE SOME  
PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT, BUT CURRENTLY THINK IT WILL BE PATCHY  
AND NOT DOWN BELOW 1 MILE IN MOST PLACES.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/
 
 
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE  
NORTHEASTERN STATES WILL RIDGE INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST.  
UPPER RIDGE OFFSHORE EXTENDING INTO EASTERN SC. ONSHORE FLOW  
INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA. MOISTURE APPEARS TO DEEPEN ACROSS THE  
AREA. SEVERAL WEAK SHORT WAVES ROTATING NORTH AROUND RIDGE WILL  
PROVIDE LIFT ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON. STRONGEST LIFT AND DEEPER  
MOISTURE ACROSS THE CSRA ALTHOUGH ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY INCREASE IN  
THE AFTERNOON RESULTING IN MORE SHOWERS IN THE PIEDMONT. SCATTERED  
SHOWERS WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS AIR MASS WEAKLY UNSTABLE THROUGH  
THE AFTERNOON. ISENTROPIC LIFT OVERNIGHT RESULTING IN SCATTERED  
SHOWERS. HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID  
80S. LOWS IN THE 60S.  
 
TUESDAY...MODELS SUGGESTING IN-SITU WEDGE CONDITIONS DEVELOPING  
DURING THE DAY. MOISTURE DEEPENS AS EAST FLOW/ISENTROPIC LIFT  
INCREASES. A 20 TO 25-KNOT LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS DURING THE  
AFTERNOON INCREASING MOISTURE TRANSPORT. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT  
INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO DEEP LOW DEVELOPING IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.  
HIGHEST POPS INDICATED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA. MOS  
GUIDANCE TEMPS TRENDING COOLER..SO HAVE INDICATED HIGHS IN THE MID  
70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
 
 
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS  
MIDWEST UPPER LOW MOVES SLOWLY EAST. DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS  
ACROSS THE AREA AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AFFECTING THE AREA NEXT  
WEEKEND. COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR MID WEEK THEN WARMING TREND AND  
HIGHER CHANCE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE  
WEEKEND.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO  
LINGER UNTIL AROUND 04Z. RAIN COOLED AIR MAY PROMOTE  
FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT. SOME MIXED SIGNALS IN  
GUIDANCE. WILL INDICATE TEMPO GROUPS FOR MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS,  
EXCEPT IFR AT FOG PRONE AGS AND OGB. SCATTERED DIURNAL  
CONVECTION EXPECTED MONDAY. FOR NOW, WILL HANDLE WITH VCTS AFTER  
19Z.  
 
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LATE  
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS AND SCATTERED MAINLY DIURNAL  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD.  
 

 
   
HYDROLOGY
 
 
RECENT RAINFALL AMOUNTS RANGED FROM 3 TO 8 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE  
UPPER AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE RIVER BASINS. RIVER HAVE  
CRESTED THOUGH FLOODING EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK ON  
THE PEE DEE, CONGAREE AND WATEREE RIVERS.  
 

 
   
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
GA...NONE.  
SC...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab SC Page
The Nexlab GA Page Main Text Page