331
FXUS62 KCAE 160030
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
830 PM EDT WED JUL 15 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED KEY MESSAGE 1 WITH CURRENT CONDITIONS. AVIATION
DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 00Z TAF.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. GENERALLY LOW CHANCES OF RAIN THROUGH FRIDAY, FAVORING THE
CSRA WITH A WARMING TREND EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA.
- 2. INCREASED CHANCES OF RAIN OVER THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHEST
CHANCES ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: GENERALLY LOW CHANCES OF RAIN THROUGH FRIDAY,
FAVORING THE CSRA WITH A WARMING TREND EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS
TEMPERATURES ARE DECREASING. A COUPLE OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ARE
NOTED ON RADAR IMAGERY, BUT THEY HAVEN'T HAD MUCH LUCK
GENERATING ANY NEW ACTIVITY. THE REST OF THE NIGHT SHOULD BE
FAIRLY QUIET WITH SKIES CLEARING AND TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO
THE MID 70S. SIMILAR EXPECTATIONS FOR TOMORROW REGARDING
CONVECTION AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVIER DOWNPOURS GIVEN
HIGH PWATS AND SLOW STORM MOTIONS. COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE
CONFINED TO THE CSRA AND MAY BE EVEN LESS AS SOME OF THE DRIER
AIR TO OUR NORTH WORKS SOUTHWARD.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS THE
UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO
THE CAROLINAS. NAEFS SHOWS 850MB TEMPERATURES ABOVE THE 99TH
PERCENTILE BOTH DAYS WHILE THE ECMWF ALSO HIGHLIGHTS ANOMALOUSLY
HIGH MAX TEMPS TO END THE WEEK. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO
PUSH BACK INTO THE MID AND UPPER 90S WITH FRIDAY BEING THE
WARMEST DAY. WHILE DEEP MIXING SHOULD RESULT IN SOME DRIER AIR
MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE, HEAT INDICES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE
BACK ABOVE 100 DEGREES AND COULD REACH 105 BY FRIDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2: INCREASED CHANCES OF RAIN OVER THE WEEKEND WITH
HIGHEST CHANCES ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE UPPER RIDGE WILL RETROGRADE AND
BECOME RE-ESTABLISHED OVER THE WESTERN CONUS BY SATURDAY WITH AN
UPPER WEAKNESS LEFT BEHIND ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND
NORTHEASTERN GULF. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR TROUGHING ACROSS THE OH
VALLEY INTO MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND BRINGING SHORTWAVE
ENERGY INTO THE REGION INTERACTING WITH ABOVE NORMAL PWATS
RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN CHANCES OF CONVECTION LATE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THERE MAY BE A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER ON
SUNDAY AS WELL WITH SOME INCREASED WIND SHEAR AND UPPER FORCING
FROM SHORTWAVE ENERGY COMBINING WITH DIURNAL INSTABILITY. ALSO
OF NOTE, NHC HAS ADDED A 20% AREA ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN GULF
FOR POSSIBLE TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
QUIET WEATHER HAS REALLY SETTLED INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING,
WITH A FEW WEAK SHOWERS HANGING AROUND MAINLY THE AUGUSTA SITES.
THESE ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS THE SUN SETS AND
INSTABILITY SETTLES INTO THE AREA. CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT, WITH RESTRICTIONS NOT EXPECTED. AGS/OGB MAY BE THE
EXCEPTION AS THIS IS A SETUP THAT TENDS TOWARDS SOME IFR GROUND
FOG, SO HAVE A TEMPO IN FOR THAT. BEYOND THAT, THE PERIOD SHOULD
FEATURE VFR CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT OUT OF
THE WEST OR SOUTHWEST.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THE THREAT FOR RESTRICTIONS EASES
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS CONDITIONS
BEGIN TO DRY OUT. RESTRICTIONS FROM SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
RETURN THIS WEEKEND.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...EC/23
AVIATION...PL
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page