985
FXUS62 KCAE 160017
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
817 PM EDT FRI MAY 15 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
REMOVED DISCUSSION REGARDING THIS AFTERNOON'S TEMPERATURE AND
ADDED MENTION OF THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR SUNDAY IN THE CSRA.
AVIATION UPDATED FOR 00Z ISSUANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS WE GET INTO
NEXT WEEK. RAIN CHANCES ARRIVE BY THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS
WE GET INTO NEXT WEEK. RAIN CHANCES ARRIVE BY THE MIDDLE TO END OF
NEXT WEEK.
THE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN RESEMBLING OUR TYPICAL LATE
SPRING WARM UP AS WE HEAD INTO THIS WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK. A
DEEP TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIG AND OVERSPREAD THE CENTRAL US
OVER THE COMING DAYS, AMPLIFYING THE DOWNSTREAM PATTERN ACROSS
THE EASTERN US. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS HEIGHTS QUICKLY RISING
TO ~588DM, WHICH IS 90-95TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
COINCIDING WITH THIS IS AN EXPECTED INCREASE IN SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW AS OUR SURFACE HIGH FROM TODAY SETS UP ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AS A BERMUDA HIGH. ASIDE FROM A BRIEF SHOT OF A FEW
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CSRA ON SUNDAY, CHANCES OF RAIN
APPEAR LOW UNTIL THE MIDDLE TO LATE PART OF NEXT WEEK. GUIDANCE
ACROSS THE BOARD CONTINUES TO SHOW HEIGHTS APPROACHING THE
95-98TH PERCENTILE MON-TUES. HIGHS SUN THROUGH WED ARE FORECAST
TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID 90S EACH AFTERNOON. WITH THE HIGH TO
OUR EAST & PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW, SURFACE MOISTURE IS EXPECTED
BE HIGHER THAN IT HAS BEEN LATELY BUT NOT ENOUGH TO REALLY YIELD
HIGH PRECIP CHANCES. A FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH BUT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY, WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS
INCREASING AS A RESULT. OVERALL, THOUGH, THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
ARE FORECAST TO BE MOST IMPACTFUL WEATHER ITEM OVER THE NEXT
WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
BRIEF, SHALLOW FOG AT AGS.
AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE FURTHER EAST WE WILL SEE WEAK
ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOP TONIGHT. THE AIR MASS AS A WHOLE REMAINS
VERY DRY, BUT WE SHOULD SEE SHALLOW MOISTURE RETURN TO THE LOW
LEVELS. ALTHOUGH SE WINDS UP THE SAVANNAH RIVER CAN TEND TO
PROMOTE FOG AT THE AUGUSTA SITES, MODEL GUIDANCE LIMITS ANY
RESTRICTIONS TO THE COASTAL PLAIN. A 10 TO 15 KT LLJ SHOULD ALSO
HELP LIMIT THE FOG THREAT. EVEN SO, AGS MAY EXPERIENCE SHALLOW
GROUND FOG BRIEFLY AROUND SUNRISE BUT SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO
AVIATION ARE UNLIKELY. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE S ON SATURDAY
FROM 5 TO 10 KTS. MOISTURE WILL BE TOO SHALLOW FOR ANY
CONVECTION. CEILINGS WILL LIKELY REMAIN VFR.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MOISTURE INCREASES EARLY SUNDAY AND
THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK WHICH MAY LEAD TO EARLY MORNING FOG
OR STRATUS. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN MID WEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...29
AVIATION...CJR
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