402
FXUS62 KCAE 241815
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
215 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL FORECAST. AVIATION DISCUSSION
UPDATED FOR THE 18Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AND PERIODIC SMOKE IMPACTS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT.
- 2. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK,
BUT MEANINGFUL DROUGHT RELIEF REMAINS UNLIKELY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AND PERIODIC
SMOKE IMPACTS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT.
A DRY AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.
OCCASIONAL LOW-END GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 MPH ARE BEING OBSERVED, AND
WITH RH VALUES REMAINING BELOW 30% AS WELL AS LITTLE TO NO
RAINFALL, THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO INCREASE THE ELEVATED
FIRE DANGER ENVIRONMENT. WE ALSO MAY CONTINUE TO SEE SMOKE
IMPACTS FROM FIRES TO THE SOUTH AS WINDS REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST, AND HRRR SMOKE GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT SMOKE
COULD LINGER IN THE REGION THIS EVENING. THE SC FORESTRY
COMMISSION CONTINUES A BURN BAN UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.
KEY MESSAGE 2: RAIN CHANCES INCREASE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK, BUT MEANINGFUL DROUGHT RELIEF REMAINS UNCERTAIN.
A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT 2-5
DAYS WITH SEVERAL CHANCES FOR RAIN IN THE FORECAST. CUMULUS
CLOUDS HAVE STARTED TO PUSH INTO THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE
A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING IN OUR SURROUNDING AREAS, IT
IS LIKELY TOO DRY FOR MUCH IF ANY PRECIP TO MAKE IT TO THE
GROUND. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. CHANCES OF A POSSIBLE SHOWER WILL BE BETTER CLOSER
TO THE COAST WHERE PW VALUES WILL INCREASE AROUND 1" THIS
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH LATE
SATURDAY AND INTO SUNDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND
HIGHER CHANCES CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ARRIVE. THERE WILL BE SOME
SUPPORT FOR POTENTIAL SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL, BUT NO
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE STROM CHANCE AS STORM ORGANIZATION SHOULD BE
KEPT TO A MINIMUM. ISOLATED CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
CONTINUE SUNDAY AND MONDAY MAINLY FOR THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OVER THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. ANOTHER FRONT LIKELY APPROACHES TUESDAY WITH SOME
SEVERE POTENTIAL AS INSTABILITY INCREASES, AND A MORE ROBUST
SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THIS MAY LEAD TO
SOME SLIGHTLY HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS, BUT PARTICULARLY FOR NEXT
WEEK IT IS TOO SOON TO START TALKING ABOUT SPECIFIC
ACCUMULATIONS. EVEN IF WE RECEIVE SOME RAIN AND BRIEF RELIEF
WITH ALL OF THESE SYSTEMS, THE DROUGHT IS UNLIKELY TO BE
SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED ANYTIME SOON. THE LATEST RUNS OF THE GEFS
AND ECENS CONTINUE TO SHOW VERY LOW CHANCES, LESS THAN 20%, FOR
7-DAY RAINFALL TOTALS OVER 1". SO, EXPECTING THE SEVERE TO
EXTREME DROUGHT TO PERSIST FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
A SCATTERED CUMULUS FIELD HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE REGION WITH
BASES BETWEEN 8-10KFT. THIS CUMULUS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND DISSIPATE AS THE SUN SETS. A ROGUE
SHOWER CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT, BUT IS UNLIKELY. W TO WNW
WINDS OF 5-10 KTS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON, WITH A
FEW GUSTS OF 15 KTS OR SO POSSIBLE. SKIES CLEAR OVERNIGHT AS
WINDS DIMINISH. SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE AND CLOUD COVER RETURNS
LATE IN THE PERIOD, BUT ANY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING
FRONT SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 18Z FOR THE TERMINALS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RAIN CHANCES INCREASE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WHICH MAY INTRODUCE PERIODS OF
RESTRICTIONS, BUT CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE REMAINS LOW. MORE
UNSETTLED PATTERN WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR RAIN SUNDAY AND
TUESDAY.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ND
AVIATION...29
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