090
FXUS62 KCAE 291817
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
217 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MINIMAL CHANGE TO KEY MESSAGES. AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR
18Z TAF.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. DRIER CONDITIONS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK BEFORE RAIN
CHANCES RAMP BACK UP THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
- 1. DRIER CONDITIONS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK BEFORE RAIN
CHANCES RAMP BACK UP THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
PWATS ARE ALREADY FALLING TO UNDER 1.50" ACROSS THE FA WITH THE
FRONT SHIFTING INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN AND NW TO NNW FLOW MOVING
IN. THIS PUSH OF DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO WORK IN TOMORROW
AND FRIDAY AS CAMS AND GLOBAL MODELS SHOW PWAT'S POTENTIALLY
FALLING UNDER 1" AT TIMES. TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO REMAIN
NEAR NORMAL EACH AFTERNOON, BUT WITH THIS DRIER AIR, SURFACE
DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S,
BRINGING MUCH NEEDED RELIEF FROM THE HOT/HUMID CONDITIONS SEEN
MUCH OF THE PAST 3-4 WEEKS. SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT IS COMING
INTO LREF CLUSTER ANALYSIS IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYNOPTIC
PATTERN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE ROBUST UPPER RIDGE NEAR THE
CLIMATOLOGICAL 90TH PERCENTILE SHOULD CONTINUE RETROGRADING
TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS REGION, ALLOWING TROUGHING TO SLIDE BACK
INTO THE EASTERN US. THERE IS MORE CONSENSUS AS WELL THAT A
SHARP SHORTWAVE SHOULD DIVE OUT OF THE MIDWEST EARLY THIS
WEEKEND, SHIFTING INTO THE MID SOUTH BY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
GREATER DISCREPANCIES EXIST IN DETERMINISTIC GLOBAL MODELS
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY IN THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SHORTWAVE AS THE
ECMWF IS MORE AGGRESSIVE IN CUTTING THIS OFF, WHILE THE GFS
FAVORS IT CONTINUING TO LIFT THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC. EITHER
WAY, PWATS ACROSS ENSEMBLES ARE SHOWN REACHING NEAR 120-125% IN
THIS TIME PERIOD AND WITH GENEROUS FORCING IN THE TROUGHING
PATTERN, INCREASED RAIN CHANCES LOOK LIKELY AT LEAST LATE THIS
WEEKEND INTO THE EARLY WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY VARIABLE AROUND 5 KNOTS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. IF THERE IS A GENERAL DIRECTION, IT WOULD BE
NORTHERLY. WINDS DIMINISH BELOW 5 KNOTS BY SUNSET AND WILL
REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. CLOUDS CONSIST OF A FEW MID-LEVEL
CUMULUS THROUGH THE DAY, THEN MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT AND INTO
THURSDAY. WITH THE DRY AIR IN PLACE, FOG IS NOT EXPECTED, NOR IS
ANY RAIN.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RAIN AND RESTRICTIONS BECOME
INCREASINGLY LIKELY THIS WEEKEND.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DH
AVIATION...73
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