962
FXUS62 KCAE 010535
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
135 AM EDT THU OCT 1 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 06Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. DRY CONDITIONS WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH FRIDAY.
- 2. INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONT
APPROACHING THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: DRY CONDITIONS WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS REMAINS TO THE WEST OF THE AREA AND WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK LEADING TO
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AS 500 MB HEIGHTS WILL RISE TO NEAR
1.5 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL BASED ON ENSEMBLE
MEANS. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO HIGHS NEARLY 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL, IN THE LOW 90S AS OCTOBER BEGINS UNSEASONABLE WARM. WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING OFFSHORE, LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE, ALTHOUGH FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A
LAYER OF SUBSTANTIAL DRY AIR IN PLACE THAT WILL PRECLUDE ANY
RAIN TODAY AND TOMORROW. WHILE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE BEGINS TO
INCREASE FRIDAY WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BEGINNING TO DEVELOP,
THERE WILL BE A SUBSTANTIAL PWAT GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA. WHILE
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM REMAINS POSSIBLE IN THE FAR
SOUTHERN AREA WHERE MOISTURE INCREASES FASTEST, MOST OF THE AREA
EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY FRIDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2: INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONT
APPROACHING THIS WEEKEND.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO CONVERGE ON A GENERALLY SLOWER SOLUTION
WITH THE ARRIVAL AND PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
THIS WEEKEND WITH LREF PWATS GREATER THAN 2 INCHES SHOWING A
70-90% CHANCE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH DEEPER MOISTURE MORE
SOUTHEAST. WHILE FORCING IS LIMITED, ESPECIALLY EARLY,
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL LEAD TO DEVELOPING RAIN OVER THE AREA WITH
THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF STORMS IN THE SOUTHEAST. STRONGER FORCING
WITH AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY
AID IN THE HEAVIER RAIN OCCURRING ON SUNDAY. LREF CONTINUES TO
SHOW A 30-40% CHANCE OF SEEING RAIN TOTALS OVER 2 INCHES WITH A
SPREAD OF 1 TO 3 INCHES BETWEEN THE 25TH AND 75TH PERCENTILES
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES, IT REMAINS
UNCERTAIN IN HOW HIGH THEY BECOME SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THIS IS
DUE TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND A STRONG HIGH-
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NEW ENGLAND POSSIBLY HINTING AT A COLD AIR
DAMMING SETUP THIS WEEKEND. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER IN THE UPSTATE
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEDGE WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE
NORTHWEST AND A SHARP GRADIENT ALONG THE UPSTATE. COLD AIR
DAMMING LIKELY LINGERS INTO SUNDAY AND WHILE BLENDED GUIDANCE
FAVORS MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES, THERE STILL REMAINS THE
POSSIBILITY THAT THEY ARE TOO HIGH, ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHWEST.
ONCE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY,
TEMPERATURES DROP TO MORE FALL-LIKE WITH LOWS IN THE 50S AND
HIGHS IN THE 70S LIKELY CLEARING OUT THE CAD IN THE NORTHWEST.
DRIER AIR LIKELY FILTERS INTO THE AREA MONDAY AS THE FRONT IS
PUSHED SOUTHEAST WITH A DEEPENING TROUGH MOVING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLY GIVING WAY TO RESTRICTIONS IN
STRATUS/FOG THIS MORNING WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
ONLY SOME THIN PASSING HIGH CLOUDS. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HINT
AT A RETURN OF PREDAWN FOG/STRATUS, SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY MORNING
ALTHOUGH HRRR AND LAMP TRENDING A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN. WILL
CONTINUE A TEMPO GROUP FOR LIFR CIGS AND MVFR/IFR VSBYS AS THE
ENVIRONMENT HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH AND A BIT MORE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IS PRESENT COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. ANY RESTRICTIONS
SHOULD RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 14Z. CALM WINDS THROUGH
SUNRISE WILL EVENTUALLY PICK UP TO AROUND 5 KNOTS AFTER 15Z WITH
VARIABLE DIRECTION BUT POSSIBLY PREVAILING SOUTHEAST.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
THIS WEEKEND MAY LEAD TO ADDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...NS
AVIATION...23
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