365
FXUS62 KCAE 151019
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
619 AM EDT WED JUL 15 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TODAY AS TEMPERATURES
GRADUALLY RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL. AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR
12Z TAF.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. MAINLY DRY TODAY BARRING A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE CSRA. WARMING TEMPERATURES AND RETURNING DIURNAL RAIN
CHANCES EXPECTED FOR THE LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: MAINLY DRY TODAY BARRING A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE CSRA. WARMING TEMPERATURES AND RETURNING DIURNAL RAIN
CHANCES EXPECTED FOR THE LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
RAIN CHANCES DIMINISH TODAY ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOUTHERN LOCALES. THE PATTERNS IS A BIT
ODD FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS LOW PRESSURE RETROGRADES WEST AWAY
FROM THE REGION AND FLOW THROUGH THE COLUMN BECOMES
PREDOMINATELY EASTERLY. THIS WILL REINFORCE OUR HIGH PWAT VALUES
AT 1.7-2" OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, BUT THE LACK OF FORCING WILL
LIMIT WIDESPREAD CONVECTION. AS HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES INCREASE
OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO, TEMPERATURES WILL RISE BACK TO NEAR
NORMAL LEVELS. BY THE WEEKEND, ENSEMBLES AND GLOBAL MODELS
DEPICT AN ELONGATED UPPER RIDGE STRETCHING FROM THE CENTRAL
CONUS, TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY. LOW LEVEL FLOW RETURNS TO THE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AND SHOULD INDUCE A COUPLE MORE DEGREES OF
WARMING. THERE IS ALSO A HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR SOME DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CONVECTION AS A FEW DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW
AND PROVIDE A BIT MORE OF A TRIGGER AND SUPPORT FOR STORMS.
AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
LOW CLOUDS POSSIBLE EARLY AT AGS/DNL/AIK....
RADAR IMAGERY AT DAYBREAK SHOWS A FEW PASSING SHOWERS AROUND
AGS/DNL/AIK. THE AUGUSTA TERMINALS ARE ALSO PERIODICALLY
REPORTING LOW IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS, WHICH COULD PERSIST FOR A
FEW MORE HOURS. ONCE ANY LOW CLOUDS LIFT, A FAIRLY NICE DAY IS
EXPECTED AS DRIER AIR PUSHES IN AND CONFINES THE SHOWERS MOSTLY
TO GEORGIA. AGS/DNL WILL PROBABLY HAVE A LIGHT SHOWER OR TWO
AROUND BUT WIDESPREAD COVERAGE IS UNLIKELY. ANY SHOWERS SHOULD
DIMINISH QUICKLY WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WITH MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THE THREAT FOR RESTRICTIONS EASES
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS CONDITIONS
BEGIN TO DRY OUT. RESTRICTIONS FROM SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
RETURN THIS WEEKEND.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...7/EC
AVIATION...7
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