742
FXUS62 KCAE 132334
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
734 PM EDT THU AUG 13 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
DANGEROUS HEAT EXPECTED INTO FRIDAY WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100 AND HEAT INDEX VALUES BETWEEN 105 AND
110. THE HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 8PM FRIDAY.
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 00Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. HEAT INDICES BETWEEN 105-110F EXPECTED FRIDAY.
- 2. RAIN CHANCES PICK BACK UP THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
- 1. HEAT INDICES BETWEEN 105-110F EXPECTED FRIDAY.
RIDGING IS MORE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY WHICH SHOULD HELP
TO SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. MOS GUIDANCE SHOWS TEMPS
NEAR 100 AGAIN FRIDAY WITH SIMILAR DEWPOINTS TO THE PREVIOUS
DAY. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO ANOTHER DAY OF DANGEROUS HEAT WITH
HEAT INDEX VALUES BETWEEN 105 AND 110.
INCREASED DIURNAL SHOWER/STORM CHANCES INTO THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK LIMIT CONFIDENCE IN THE NEED FOR ADDITIONAL HEAT
PRODUCTS, BUT EITHER WAY, ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE LIKELY
DOES NOT BECOME MORE FLATTENED OUT UNTIL AROUND THE MID WEEK.
- 2. RAIN CHANCES PICK BACK UP THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
GLOBAL ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO FAVOR RIDGING SLOWLY FLATTENING
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH MORE CHANCES FOR SHORTWAVES AND/OR
WEAKENING MCSS TO NEAR THE FA IN A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME. PWATS
WILL LIKELY REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE 2 INCHES THROUGH THE LATE
WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. THIS SYNOPTIC SETUP WILL FAVOR AT LEAST
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION. THERE IS SOME
INDICATION IN GLOBAL MODELS THAT TROUGHING COULD DEVELOP OVER
PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK SHIFTING
TO A WETTER PATTERN.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY OUTSIDE OF SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS
EVENING.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN
IMPACTING TAF LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST
THE NEXT HOUR OR SO, THEN SHOULD DIMINISH. BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/STORMS, THE VFR EXPECTED OUTSIDE
OF ACTIVITY THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AND THROUGH FRIDAY.
STRATUS/FOG FRIDAY MORNING CAN NOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT,
ESPECIALLY WITH THE RAINFALL TODAY. HOWEVER GUIDANCE NOT REALLY
INDICATING THIS, AND CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS
REMAINS LOW. HAVE THUS KEPT VFR AT THIS TIME. WINDS BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM OVERNIGHT, THE INCREASE AFTER SUNRISE
OUT OF THE WEST.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...DIURNAL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR SCZ016-018-020>022-
025>031-035-037-038-041-115-116-135>137.
GA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR GAZ040-063>065-077.
DISCUSSION...CJR
AVIATION...73
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