224
FXUS62 KCAE 041826
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
226 PM EDT SUN OCT 4 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SOUTHWARD SHIFT IN POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT. AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 18Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD MODERATE RAIN EXPECTED THIS
EVENING INTO EARLY MONDAY, MAINLY SOUTH OF I-20. CANNOT RULE
OUT AN INSTANCE OF FLASH FLOODING.
- 2. TEMPERATURES JUST BELOW TO NEAR NORMAL ARE EXPECTED THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD MODERATE RAIN EXPECTED
THIS EVENING INTO EARLY MONDAY, MAINLY SOUTH OF I-20. CANNOT
RULE OUT AN INSTANCE OF FLASH FLOODING.
THE SURFACE FRONT HAS SANK TOWARD THE SOUTHERN CSRA AND FAR
SOUTHEASTERN MIDLANDS, WITH DEWPOINTS ALONG/SOUTH OF THE FRONT
IN THE LOW 70S, QUICKLY DROPPING NORTHWARD INTO THE LOW TO MID
60S. BEHIND THE FRONT, IN-SITU WEDGE CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN IN
PLACE MUCH OF THE MORNING WITH LOW STRATUS AND PERIODS OF
DRIZZLE, KEEPING TEMPERATURES TOWARD THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
STRATUS HAS APPEARED TO THIN A BIT, BUT OVERALL, A MUCH MORE
STABLE ENVIRONMENT IS SEEN NORTH OF THE FRONT. DUE TO THIS,
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE
CWA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE
SOUTHERN TENNESSEE VALLEY. AS THIS NEARS, A BATCH OF SCATTERED
TO WIDESPREAD RAIN DEVELOPING ACROSS WESTERN AL AND GA SHOULD
PUSH TOWARD THE AREA, MOVING IN DURING THE EVENING HOURS AND
CONTINUING OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AS PWAT'S ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE FRONT REMAIN NEAR 2". PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL REMAIN POSSIBLE, BUT WITH THE FRONT ALREADY FURTHER
SOUTH THAN WAS FORECAST 24 HOURS AGO, THIS RISK HAS ALSO SHIFTED
SOUTH, MAINLY CONFINED TOWARD OUR SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES
(BURKE, BARNWELL, BAMBERG, AND SOUTHERN ORANGEBURG). CANNOT
RULE OUT AN ISOLATED INSTANCE OF FLASH FLOODING HERE TONIGHT
WITH A FEW CAM'S SUPPORTING LOCALIZED AMOUNTS BETWEEN 2-4", BUT
THIS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDING ON IF TRAINING OF WEAK CONVECTION
CAN OCCUR. WITH THE MORE STABLE AIR MASS NORTH OF HERE, ANY
RAINFALL ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN MIDLANDS IS EXPECTED TO BE
FAIRLY LIGHT. A PUSH OF MUCH DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
DAY MONDAY, GRADUALLY BRINGING AN END TO RAIN CHANCES BY THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.
KEY MESSAGE 2: TEMPERATURES JUST BELOW TO NEAR NORMAL ARE
EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS.
THERE IS SOLID MODEL CONSENSUS THAT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT,
PWAT'S SHOULD DROP TOWARD 0.50" TUESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW INTO THE MID WEEK SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR TO JUST
BELOW NORMAL WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. WEAK SURFACE RIDGING IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE LATE WEEK BEFORE MOISTURE MAY
GRADUALLY UPTICK TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, POSSIBLY
BRINGING BACK RAIN CHANCES EARLY NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED TODAY AND INTO MONDAY.
CEILINGS HAVE RISEN A BIT THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOW MVFR
RESTRICTIONS IN PLACE AT ALL TERMINALS (LIKELY TO RETURN TO DNL
SHORTLY). THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS
WITH CHANCES FOR RAIN INCREASING THIS EVENING WITH LOWERING
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS WITH HIGHEST CONFIDENCE AT
THE AUGUSTA TERMINALS. GUIDANCE SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR
DEVELOPING LIFR CEILINGS TONIGHT WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE WITH
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE FRONT NEAR THE AREA. FOR
NOW HAVE INCLUDED THE MENTION OF SCT003 TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS
POSSIBILITY ALONG WITH VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS, ALTHOUGH
CEILINGS EXPECTED TO BE THE PREDOMINANT RESTRICTION. IMPROVEMENT
EXPECTED INTO THE DAY TOMORROW AS DRIER AIR SLOWLY FILTERS INTO
THE AREA.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED LATE MONDAY
WITH RESTRICTIONS UNLIKELY THIS WEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DH
AVIATION...96
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