697
FXUS62 KCAE 162339
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
739 PM EDT TUE JUN 16 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 00Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK
WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE LATE THIS WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE REST OF THE
WORK WEEK WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE LATE THIS
WEEK.
BROAD TOUGHING REMAINS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS AS A 90-100 KT
UPPER JET STREAK TRAVERSES THE LOWER TENNESSEE VALLEY. THIS HAS
LEAD TO AN AREA OF UPPER DIFFLUENCE/DIVERGENCE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM THE
WESTERN/SOUTHERN FA BACK TO THE WEST ACROSS GA INTO SOUTHERN
AL.
AS PWAT'S CONTINUE TO RAISE SLIGHTLY TOWARD 1.90-2.0" AND UPPER
FORCING FROM THE JET STREAK REMAINS IN PLACE OVERTOP THE
STALLED SURFACE FRONT, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, WHERE EFFICIENT RAINFALL
IS POSSIBLE AS SHOWERS POSSIBLY TRAIN OVER THE FA. THE OVERALL
FLASH FLOOD RISK IS LOW, BUT A COUPLE SPOTS OF NUISANCE FLOODING
CANNOT BE RULED OUT IF TRAINING OCCURS OVER A COUPLE HOURS LATE
TONIGHT. THE UPPER JET IS EXPECTED TO EXIT THE REGION EARLY
WEDNESDAY AS WEAK 500MB HEIGHT RISES ARE SEEN, BRINGING SLIGHTLY
DRIER CONDITIONS WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON
SHOWERS/STORMS NEAR THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA.
THERE HAS NOT BEEN A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE OUTLOOK FOR THE
LATE WEEK AND INTO THIS WEEKEND, BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL MAINLY LATE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY HAS INCREASED A
BIT. AS WHAT IS NOW POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE ONE (PTC ONE)
CONTINUES TOWARD THE NORTHEAST FROM THE NORTHWESTERN GULF AND
MOVES INLAND THURSDAY, ITS REMNANT TROPICAL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED
TO BE PICKED UP IN WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW WITH A
SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE COLD FRONT NEARING THE FA. AS MOISTURE
INCREASES, SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHERE AI/ML GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO HINT A COUPLE STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS
COULD BE POSSIBLE. AROUND 59% OF THE INDIVIDUAL MEMBERS IN THE
LREF CLUSTER ANALYSIS SHOW THE MAIN PLUME OF MOISTURE WITH
PWAT'S THAT NEAR 2.10-2.40" (140-170% OF NORMAL) MOVING IN LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DURING THIS
PERIOD ARE VERY MOIST AND HAVE WARM CLOUD DEPTHS THAT EXCEED
13,500 FT WITH A 30-40 KT LLJ IN PLACE, SIGNALING THE POTENTIAL
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL DURING THIS WINDOW. OVERALL, A FAIRLY COMPLEX
FORECAST SCENARIO IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH THE INTERACTION OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT AND REMNANTS OF
PTC ONE, BUT PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL AS A
MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER. SLIGHTLY DRIER CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORED ACROSS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE INTO THIS WEEKEND.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
RESTRICTIONS DEVELOPING TONIGHT ALONG WITH INCREASING CHANCES
FOR RAIN.
MVFR CEILINGS HAVE MOVED OVER AGS, DNL, AND AIK PRIOR TO THE
START OF THE TAF PERIOD. EXPECT THESE CEILINGS TO BE PREVAILING
FOR THE MOST PART, BUT WILL LIKELY BOUNCE INTO VFR AT TIMES.
CAE, CUB, AND OGB ARE EXPECTED TO BE VFR FOR THE FIRST 2-3 HOURS
OF THE TAF PERIOD BEFORE GOING TO MVFR. CEILINGS ARE THEN
EXPECTED TO LOWER TO IFR AROUND 06Z AT ALL SITES, THEN GRADUALLY
IMPROVE AFTER DAYBREAK. PERIODIC SHOWERS CAN BE ANTICIPATED AT
AGS AND DNL OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AHEAD OF MORE STEADY RAIN
AFTER 06Z. THE RAIN IS FORECAST TO SPREAD EASTWARD, BUT THERE IS
QUESTION HOW MUCH OF THESE SHOWERS MAKE IT TO CAE AND CUB, SO
HAVE LEFT VCSH AT THOSE TERMINALS. WILL AMEND AS NEEDED.
GENERALLY SOUTHWEST WINDS PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD,
STAYING ELEVATED OVERNIGHT AND BECOMING BREEZY AFTER 18Z,
GUSTING TO 15-20 KTS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...DIURNALLY FAVORED CONVECTION
POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON. BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THU/FRI WITH
INCREASED CHANCES OF RAIN AS A GULF COAST SYSTEM APPROACHES THE
AREA.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DH/73
AVIATION...29
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