289
FXUS62 KCAE 221011
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
611 AM EDT WED JUL 22 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
RAIN CHANCES TODAY WILL BE HIGHEST NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA
BORDER AS THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES. 12Z AVIATION
DISCUSSION UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. A SLOW-MOVING FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH TODAY WITH
RAIN CHANCES FOCUSED ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA. UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: A SLOW-MOVING FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH
TODAY WITH RAIN CHANCES FOCUSED ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA. UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE NORTH TODAY BUT IS
NOT EXPECTED TO REACH THE FA UNTIL LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY
THURSDAY. THIS MEANS THAT ANOTHER HOT, HUMID, AND DRY DAY IS
EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA, WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA BORDER.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO TUESDAY WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 90S. IT APPEARS THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE RAIN
SHOULD ARRIVE AFTER DARK, LIMITING THE THREAT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER. THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA MAY REMAIN DRY WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT OUTSIDE OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM.
AS THE FRONT STALLS OUT NEAR OR OVER THE REGION ON THURSDAY,
ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONGER CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP. REGARDLESS,
THE GREATER CONCERN APPEARS TO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL FROM LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. PWATS EXCEEDING
2" AND RELATIVELY SKINNY CAPE PROFILES WILL FAVOR EFFICIENT
RAINFALL RATES, WHILE THE STALLED BOUNDARY COULD SUPPORT
TRAINING CONVECTION. THE ECMWF REMAINS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE
SOLUTION, WITH THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTING A HEAVY
RAINFALL SETUP. THAT SAID, IT IS UNCOMMON FOR A FRONT TO PUSH
THIS FAR SOUTH IN LATE JULY, SO CONTINUED DOWNTRENDS ARE
ANTICIPATED BUT THIS WILL BE MONITORED.
THE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO LINGER ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
THROUGH FRIDAY, AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES MAINTAINING
SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES INTO THE WEEKEND, BUT THE OVERALL
PATTERN REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER.
AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION TODAY
BEFORE A FRONT APPROACHES TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT BREEZY
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS
ACROSS THE AREA. RAIN CHANCES ARE LOW TODAY, SO CONFIDENCE FOR
EVEN A PROB30 IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THIS SET OF TAFS.
AFTER SOME CIRRUS FROM CONVECTION WELL TO THE WEST CLEARS THE
AREA THIS MORNING, ONLY SOME TYPICAL SUMMER CU EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON IN TERMS OF CLOUD COVER. SHOWERS LIKELY BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD, BUT CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING IS TOO LOW FOR A MENTION YET.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS FROM SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY BEGINNING THURSDAY MORNING LATE THIS
WEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...7
AVIATION...42
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