445
FXUS62 KCAE 261039
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
639 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS DIMINISHING EARLY THIS MORNING.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. DAILY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEK, WITH ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: DAILY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEK, WITH ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE AGAIN
TODAY.
THE OVERALL PATTERN REMAINS GENERALLY THE SAME FOR ONE MORE DAY
AS THE OFFSHORE RIDGE AND AND A DIGGING TROUGH IN THE WESTERN
CONUS KEEPS SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL KEEP
MOISTURE LEVELS VERY HIGH WITH PWATS AROUND THE 2", WHICH IS
ABOUT 150% OF NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. WEAK SHORTWAVE
ENERGY IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AGAIN TODAY,
BRINGING CHANCES FOR MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
DAY, MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT THE OVERALL
COVERAGE IS ANTICIPATED TO BE LESS THAN MONDAY. WITH THE
ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN PLACE, LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE
ONCE AGAIN. THE 00Z HREF LPMM GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A COUPLE OF
POCKETS OF 4" OR MORE OF RAIN POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON, WHICH IS
A REASONABLE HIGH END SCENARIO FOR RAINFALL GIVEN THE STATE OF
THE ATMOSPHERE. SHOULD THIS OCCUR, ESPECIALLY IF IT FALLS ON AN
AREA THAT HAS SEEN HIGHER AMOUNTS OF RAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
FLASH FLOODING WOULD BE POSSIBLE. AFTER TODAY A TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO DIG FROM CANADA DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD, AIDING IN
SLOWLY PUSHING THE HIGHEST PWATS SOUTHWARD. AS A RESULT OF THIS
AS WELL AS A LACK OF FORCING, PRECIPITATION CHANCES DECREASE
FOR TOMORROW AND THURSDAY. THE TROUGH IS THEN FORECAST TO PUSH A
FRONT THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND, POSSIBLY
BRINGING DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION BEHIND IT. THERE IS
UNCERTAINTY IN THIS AS GUIDANCE IS NOT IN GREAT AGREEMENT FOR
LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
OVERNIGHT CEILING RESTRICTIONS AND PATCHY FOG EXPECTED.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY IMPACT THE TERMINALS WITH HIGHEST
CHANCES IN THE AFTERNOON.
A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH SO IMPACTS TO THE TERMINALS ARE NOT EXPECTED. ABUNDANT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS CONTRIBUTED TO CEILING RESTRICTIONS AT
ALL TAF SITES, EXCEPT OGB, THIS MORNING. LIFR OR IFR
RESTRICTIONS WILL PERSIST FOR A FEW MORE HOURS THEN BEGIN TO
IMPROVE.
CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE THROUGH THE MORNING WITH SITES POSSIBLY
RETURNING TO VFR BY 15Z BUT COULD STAY MVFR INTO THE AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY. THE
GREATEST CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS EXPECTED AFTER 18Z BUT ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE PRIOR TO THAT. OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS,
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KTS OUT OF THE SOUTH OR
SOUTHEAST. WITH SOME CLEARING EXPECTED IN THE EVENING WE COULD
SEE LOW STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOP DUE TO ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. FORECAST WIND PROFILES AND THE HRRR
TEND TO FAVOR STRATUS OVER FOG. AT LEAST PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS
ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT WITH IFR OR LOWER CEILINGS
POSSIBLE. A PERSISTENCE FORECAST WAS FAVORED WITH RESTRICTIONS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS NIGHT EXPECTED.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MORNING FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE EACH
DAY THIS WEEK. SCATTERED, DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION EXPECTED
THROUGH FRIDAY.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...29
AVIATION...CJR
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