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FXUS62 KCAE 051730
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
130 PM EDT FRI JUN 5 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 18Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND WITH DRY CONDITIONS.
DIURNAL RAIN CHANCES RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND WITH DRY
CONDITIONS. DIURNAL RAIN CHANCES RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND DEEP RIDGING WILL DOMINATE THE PATTERN
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TODAY INTO SATURDAY WILL BE QUITE DRY, WITH
PWATS AROUND 50-70% OF NORMAL AND AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO
THE 50S. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STARTS TO RETURN SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE HIGH AND SOME WEAKNESS IN THE
UPPER RIDGE LEADING TO STRONGER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 90 EACH DAY INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH SMALL NBM INTERQUARTILE RANGES INDICATING
FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL MONDAY
WHEN SUFFICIENT MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES
STARTS TO TRAVERSE THE REGION. AS SUCH, DIURNAL SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS ARE THEN EXPECTED MOST DAYS NEXT WEEK WITH A FAIRLY
TYPICALLY SUMMER PATTERN IN PLACE.
AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS REMAIN LIKELY THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
DRY HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE REGION. AFTERNOON
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING, BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. THE DRY AIRMASS SHOULD LIMIT FOG
DEVELOPMENT, ALTHOUGH A FEW LOCALIZED AREAS OF RIVER FOG CANNOT
BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. CONFIDENCE IN
ANY FOG IMPACTING THE TERMINALS REMAINS LOW.
A FEW PATCHES OF THIN CIRRUS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND PERSIST INTO SATURDAY. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 5 TO 8 KTS BY MIDDAY, RESULTING IN
CONDITIONS VERY SIMILAR TO THOSE OBSERVED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO HANG ON THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SOME INCREASE IN
MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES MONDAY INTO TUESDAY COULD BRING PERIODS OF
RESTRICTIONS IN SHOWERS/STORMS.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...EC
AVIATION...ND
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