719
FXUS62 KCAE 131733
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
133 PM EDT MON APR 13 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. FRONT POSSIBLE LATE WEEKEND. AVIATION DISCUSSION
UPDATED FOR 18Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES, ALONG WITH DRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS, WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
- 2. LIMITED CHANCE FOR RAIN ON SUNDAY, BUT RAINFALL WOULD BE
LIGHT AND SHORT-LIVED.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES, ALONG WITH DRY
WEATHER CONDITIONS, WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
NOT MUCH HAS REALLY CHANGED IN REGARDS TO THE EXPECTED HOT AND
DRY CONDITIONS THIS WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. UPPER
RIDGE WILL BE IN CONTROL THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE WEAKENING
SLIGHTLY FRIDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH PASSES OFF TO OUR NORTH.
AIRMASS REMAINS TOO DRY FOR ANY CHANCE OF SEEING RAINFALL, SO A
DRY FORECAST REMAINS. BEHIND THAT EXITING TROUGH FOR THE FIRST
PART OF THE WEEKEND, UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN WITH SOME OF
THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF THE PERIOD POSSIBLE SATURDAY.
THROUGH SATURDAY, NEAR RECORD HIGHS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE EACH
DAY, AND MULTIPLE DAYS AT OR ABOVE 90 DEGREES F ARE LIKELY BY
MID-WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
KEY MESSAGE 2: LIMITED CHANCE FOR RAIN ON SUNDAY, BUT RAINFALL
WOULD BE LIGHT AND SHORT-LIVED. COOLER TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE
SUNDAY ONWARD.
MODELS ARE SHOWING A SMALL CHANCE FOR A BRIEF SHOWER ON SUNDAY
AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO THE NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. AT THE SURFACE, THE UPPER TROUGH WILL AT LEAST BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO AND EVENTUALLY THROUGH
THE AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE
COULD MOVE IN AHEAD OF THIS FRONT, ALLOWING FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SEEING SOME LIGHT RAINFALL AS IT MOVES THROUGH. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SEEING THIS APPEARS TO BE OVER THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN
MIDLANDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WITH THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS AND THE
CSRA POTENTIALLY REMAINING DRY WITH THIS FRONT. THE FRONT WILL
BE STRONG ENOUGH THOUGH TO BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES
BACK ACROSS THE REGION STARTING SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO
MONDAY. HIGHS IN THE 70S COULD BE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WINDS REMAIN GENERALLY BETWEEN 6 TO 10 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL
LOW-END GUSTS TO AROUND 15 KTS THIS AFTERNOON AS A DRY AIR MASS
HOLDS IN PLACE. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR SHALLOW FOG OR
STRATUS TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT, MAINLY CONFINED TO
THE USUAL FOG-PRONE LOCATIONS OF AGS AND OGB. A 20 TO 30 KT
LOW-LEVEL JET AND DRY AIR SHOULD LIMIT THE EXTENT OF ANY LOW
FOG OR STRATUS THAT DOES DEVELOP TONIGHT, THOUGH BRIEF
DEVELOPMENT CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
AFTER DAYBREAK ON TUESDAY, ANY PATCHY RESTRICTIONS SHOULD
QUICKLY DISSIPATE WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING UNDER CLEAR
TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND SW TO S WINDS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE TO DOMINATE THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK, THE CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS REMAINS
LOW.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CAL
AVIATION...ND
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