508
FXUS62 KCAE 231756
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
156 PM EDT WED SEP 23 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
LOWERED TEMPS AND POPS FOR TODAY AND TOMORROW. AVIATION
DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 12Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH
PERIODS OF LIGHT SHOWERS MAINLY TODAY AND THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT SHOWERS MAINLY TODAY AND
THURSDAY.
A WEDGE WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND GEORGIA TODAY,
ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO SINK FARTHER SOUTH EARLY THIS MORNING
AS SEEN BY THE NORTHERLY SHIFT AND PICKUP IN WINDS. THE POSITION
AND STRENGTH OF THIS FRONT WILL PLAY A LARGE ROLE IN PRECIP
COVERAGE, CLOUD COVER, AND HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TOMORROW.
WITH CAD CONDITIONS BECOMING INCREASINGLY ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE
CWA, LOW CLOUDS AND OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE SHOULD BE
THE THEME TODAY. MAX TEMPS WILL BE SHARPLY COOLER, RANGING FROM
THE LOW 70S ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES TO UPPER 70S ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES, WHERE AREAS MAY REMAIN JUST OUTSIDE OF THE
WEDGE. PRECIP TODAY AND TOMORROW SHOULD BE MAINLY STRATIFORM
WITH A FEW EMBEDDED SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT TIMES. WITH THAT BEING
SAID, POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TOMORROW HAVE LOWERED COMPARED
TO PREVIOUS FORECASTS.
THE WEDGE WILL FULLY OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE REGION OVERNIGHT,
BRINGING LOWS WELL DOWN INTO THE 60S. BREEZY WINDS SHOULD BECOME
A BIT GUSTIER ON THURSDAY AS BETTER FLOW DEVELOPS ALOFT. AS THE
LOW DRIFTS FARTHER EAST AND EVENTUALLY OFF THE COAST,
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING COLD AIR ADVECTION, WHICH SHOULD
EVENTUALLY ERODE THE WEDGE THROUGH SOME PORTION OF THE DAY ON
FRIDAY. WITH THAT BEING SAID, MODELS TEND TO HANDLE THE
PROGRESSION OF CAD POORLY AND I WOULD EXPECTED AT LEAST THE
START OF FRIDAY TO REMAIN COOL AND CLOUDY. HIGHS WILL THEN
SLOWLY REBOUND CLOSER TO NORMAL AS PRECIP AND CLOUD-FREE
CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. MAX TEMPS WILL REACH THE
UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOW 60S. DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOW 50S, MAKING IT FEEL
QUITE PLEASANT OUT THERE FOR THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER, THE WARMING
TREND SHOULD CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES
EVENTUALLY RISING BACK TO AROUND NORMAL AS MORE HUMID AIR
RETURNS.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
WITH THE WEDGE ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE AREA, MVFR CONDITIONS WITH
WITH A STRATUS DECK AT 1000-1500 FT AND PERIODS OF DRIZZLE WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN
CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT CAE AND CUB EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS
BROKEN AND WEAKENING BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS PROGRESSES SOUTHWARD
ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL SC. GFS-MOS AND LAMP GUIDANCE SHOW
CEILINGS LOWERING BACK TO IFR RESTRICTIONS THIS EVENING AT CAE,
CUB, AND OGB, ALTHOUGH ADDED A TEMPO GROUP AS THERE REMAINS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR MVFR COELINGS TO LINGER THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
IFR CEILINGS SHOULD THEN SETTLE IN OVERNIGHT AT AGS, DNL, AND
AIK AROUND 06Z. BOTH THE WEDGE AND IFR CEILINGS SHOULD BE
REINFORCED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH LIGHT
SHOWERS MID-LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON THURSDAY AS A MID-LEVEL
LOW SWINGS EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA. STEADY NORTH-NORTHEAST TO
NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 KT WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 15-20
KT ARE EXPECTED POSSIBLE THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THURSDAY AS WEDGE CONDITIONS REMAIN
OVER THE REGION, WITH ADDITIONAL DRIZZLE AND/OR LIGHT SHOWERS
POSSIBLE. DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEGINNING FRIDAY
MORNING, BUT LOW CEILINGS MAY PERSIST LONGER THAN MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...7
AVIATION...SF/NS
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