819
FXUS62 KCAE 191039
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
639 AM EDT SUN JUL 19 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 12Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TODAY AND MONDAY WITH A
COUPLE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE. ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
STRONG CONVECTION POSSIBLE DURING THE MIDWEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TODAY AND MONDAY
WITH A COUPLE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE. ANOTHER CHANCE
FOR STRONG CONVECTION POSSIBLE DURING THE MIDWEEK.
A SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE
TO WORK TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH THE DAY TODAY WITH A
WEAK COLD FRONT LIKELY SETTLING IN CENTRAL NC BY THIS EVENING.
WEAK SUPPORT FROM THE SHORTWAVE, AND ENHANCED CONVERGENCE FROM
SURFACE TROUGHING WILL PROVIDE MORE SYNOPTIC-SCALE LIFT THAN
SEEN THE PREVIOUS COUPLE OF DAYS, BUT SOME UNCERTAINTY IN
COVERAGE REMAINS. THIS COMES PARTLY AS THE MID-LEVEL AND LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION OF A DEVELOPING TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IN THE NE
GULF BECOME BETTER ALIGNED. WHEN LOOKING AT WV IMAGERY A POCKET
OF DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR IS SEEN ON THE EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN
SIDE OF THIS DEVELOPING SYSTEM, ADVECTING INTO THE FA, WHICH
LIKELY PLAYED A ROLE IN THE REDUCED COVERAGE SEEN YESTERDAY. 00Z
GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR CONTINUING TO PUSH
THROUGH THE FA, WHICH MAY KEEP THE DEVELOPING CU FIELD DURING
THE EARLY AFTERNOON A BIT MORE LOW-TOPPED. BY THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING, BETTER MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE MAIN BATCH
OF FORCING FROM THE SHORTWAVE SHOULD PUSH IN, BRINGING
SCATTERED STORM CHANCES, MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-26
CORRIDOR. WITH STRONG SURFACE HEATING AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOW 70S, SBCAPE OVER 3000 J/KG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.
GENEROUS MIXING SHOULD ALSO YIELD DCAPE VALUES NEAR 1000-1200
J/KG, SO IF A UPDRAFT CAN BECOME BETTER ESTABLISHED AND COMBAT
DRY ENTRAINMENT IN THE MID-LEVELS, A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE RISK OF DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS.
THIS RISK IS EXPECTED TO BE MAXIMIZED MAINLY EAST OF THE I-26
CORRIDOR WHERE EFFECTIVE SHEAR NEAR 10-15 KTS AND CLOUD LAYER
SHEAR NEAR 20-25 KTS, COULD LEAD TO A BIT OF ORGANIZATION INTO A
FEW MULTICELLULAR CLUSTERS. PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS
AND PEE DEE REMAIN IN SPC'S SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OUT OF 5) FOR
SEVERE WEATHER WHILE MOST SPOTS SOUTH OF HERE ARE IN A MARGINAL
RISK (LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5)
A FAIRLY SIMILAR ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED MONDAY, WHERE SUBTLE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE GENERAL TROUGHING PATTERN IN
THE EASTERN CONUS SHOULD SPARK MORE ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION. WITH SEASONABLE TO
STRONG INSTABILITY REMAINING IN PLACE WITH PWAT'S NEAR 2",
CANNOT RULE A STRONG STORM OR TWO. IT IS WORTH MENTIONING THE
DEVELOPING TROPICAL DISTURBANCE COULD BECOME A BIT MORE
ORGANIZED BY THIS POINT, BUT BOTH THE 18Z ROUND OF EC ENSEMBLE
AND GOOGLE DEEPMIND GUIDANCE KEEP IT MOVING TOWARD THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST INTO THE MID WEEK. NHC NOW HAS FORMATION CHANCES
AT 60% FOR THIS. SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW MAY AID IN
PULLING SOME OF THIS DEEPER MOISTURE FROM THE GULF TOWARD THE
AREA.
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE AND GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A
FAIRLY ACTIVE PATTERN DURING THE MID WEEK, POTENTIALLY CARRYING
INTO THE LATE WEEK. A STRONG 594DM RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
ANCHORED TO THE WESTERN US WITH TROUGHING SEEN ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/EASTERN CONUS. THIS PATTERN PUTS THE FA IN A FAVORABLE
SPOT FOR MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES TO DIVE THROUGH THE MIDWEST INTO
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND FINALLY INTO THE AREA, BRINGING
INCREASED RAIN CHANCES. TIMING DIFFERENCES STILL EXIST WHEN
COMPARING THE GFS/ECMWF AND THEIR AI COUNTERPARTS, BUT A RATHER
SHARP SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ARE EXPECTED TO
WORK INTO THE CWA SOMETIME WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. ENHANCED
KINEMATICS, PWAT'S 1.5-2.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL, AND
SEASONABLE INSTABILITY COULD BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SEVERE
WEATHER AND HEAVY RAINFALL AS INDICATED IN MULTIPLE FORMS OF
AI/ML GUIDANCE.
AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD
OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION.
RESTRICTIONS REMAIN WELL TO THE WEST OF THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS
MORNING IN CENTRAL GA AND HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THEY WILL NOT
IMPACT ANY TERMINALS. BY THIS AFTERNOON, ADDITIONAL CUMULUS
WILL REDEVELOP WITH WINDS INCREASING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AS
GUSTS WILL BE BETWEEN 15 TO 20 KNOTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EVENING. GUIDANCE HAS GENERALLY BEEN TRENDING LOWER ON
COVERAGE OF STORMS, ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA SO HAVE REMOVED THE PROB30 FOR CONVECTION FOR ALL
TERMINALS EXPECT FOR THE COLUMBIA TERMINALS. OUTSIDE OF ANY
STORMS, VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WIND GUSTS SUBSIDE TONIGHT.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...POTENTIAL FOR RESTRICTIONS FROM SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DH
AVIATION...96
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