220
FXUS62 KCAE 050551
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
151 AM EDT SAT SEP 5 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MINIMAL CHANGE TO HEAT HEADLINES TODAY. A BIT MORE CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE POSSIBLE SUNDAY. AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 06Z
TAF ISSUANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. HEAT INDEX VALUES BETWEEN 105-110 ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON, ELEVATING THE RISK OF HEAT RELATED ILLNESSES.
- 2. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING.
- 3. ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1. HEAT INDEX VALUES BETWEEN 105-110 ARE EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON, ELEVATING THE RISK OF HEAT RELATED ILLNESSES.
THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE HAS ALREADY SHIFTED WEST OF THE AREA
AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO AS THE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE
NORTHEAST CONTINUES TO DIG IN. DESPITE THIS, WEAK DOWNSLOPING
FLOW SHOULD AID IN BRINGING AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES BACK
INTO THE UPPER 90S, WITH A FEW SPOTS POSSIBLY NEARING 100F.
WHILE THE DAILY RECORDS AT CAE/AGS ARE NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO
BE BROKEN (101F AT CAE AND 102F AT AGS), TEMPERATURES COULD
FALL WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO. A FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO WORK
TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE NORTH, WITH AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS LIKELY
REMAINING IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S IN SOME SPOTS AHEAD OF IT.
THIS IS EXPECTED TO YIELD ONE OF THE HOTTER DAYS THIS SUMMER
WITH WIDESPREAD HEAT INDICES LIKELY FALLING BETWEEN 105-110F.
THE UPTICK IN OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES TODAY WILL BRING MUCH A MUCH
HIGHER RISK FOR HEAT RELATED ILLNESSES, SO PROACTIVE MEASURES TO
STAY HYDRATED AND REMAIN COOL SHOULD BE TAKEN. A HEAT ADVISORY
WILL BE IN EFFECT STARTING AT 11AM, CONTINUING UNTIL 8PM FOR THE
WHOLE CWA.
THE 00Z SUITE OF GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE FRONT AND
SHORTWAVE WILL SLOWLY NEAR THIS EVENING WITH THE BEST CHANCES OF
CONVECTION STILL EXPECTED DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS OR STORMS EARLIER,
BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS LOW.
KEY MESSAGE 2. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
A SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY SEEN IN MESOANALYSIS TOWARD SOUTHERN
LAKE MICHIGAN WITH THE SURFACE FRONT STRETCHING FROM SOUTHERN WI
TOWARD OH AND SOUTHERN PA. THESE FEATURES ARE SPARKING
CONVECTION CURRENTLY SEEN OVER SOUTHERN MI, WHICH ARE EXPECTED
TO PERSIST IN SOME DEGREE THROUGH THE MORNING, MOVING TOWARD THE
SOUTH. NOT ALL CAM GUIDANCE HAS INITIALIZED THIS ACTIVITY WELL,
BUT THE 00Z HRRR AND MEAN HREF SOLUTION DID CAPTURE THIS. THERE
IS SLIGHT DISAGREEMENT HOW COLLECTED THIS CONVECTION WILL
BECOME AS IT APPROACHES THE WESTERN APPALACHIANS LATER THIS
MORNING, BUT WITH A STRONGLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE REGION BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON, WOULD EXPECTED IT TO
CONTINUE SOUTHWARD, WITH NEW CONVECTION POSSIBLY SPARKING AS THE
FRONT AND SHORTWAVE MOVE IN. OVERALL, THIS OUTLOOK KEEPS THE
FORECAST ON TRACK WHERE THE BULK OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
MAINLY AFTER 21Z AS BETTER FORCING AND THE AFOREMENTIONED BATCH
OF STORMS ATTEMPTS TO PUSH INTO THE FA. THIS ENVIRONMENT WOULD
BE CONDUCIVE FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLE SOME SUB-SEVERE
HAIL AS LARGE CAPE PROFILES (MLCAPE NEAR 2500 J/KG) ARE SEEN
WITH DCAPE VALUES NEAR OR OVER 1000 J/KG. FEATURES TO KEEP AN
EYE ON THIS MORNING THOUGH ARE A FEW GRAVITY WAVES ARE CURRENTLY
PUSHING THROUGH SE NC FROM EARLIER CONVECTION. DEPENDING WHERE
THESE MOVE IN AND ANY LOW LEVEL OUTFLOW RESIDES, AN AREA FOR
CONVECTION TO FOCUS COULD DEVELOP LATER IN THE DAY. CANNOT RULE
OUT A FEW STORMS EARLIER IN THE AFTERNOON, POSSIBLY FROM THE
OUTFLOW/GRAVITY WAVES MENTIONED ABOVE, BUT OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN
EARLY TIMING IS LOW. THE CWA REMAINS OUTLINED IN A SLIGHT RISK
(LEVEL 2 OUT OF 5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER EAST OF THE I-26 CORRIDOR.
KEY MESSAGE 3. ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
POSSIBLE SUNDAY.
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SAG THROUGH THE FA SUNDAY,
WHERE BY MID DAY, IT COULD STILL BE BISECTING THE CWA. WITH
SEASONABLE MOISTURE LIKELY REMAINING IN PLACE AND SOME MORE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING INTO THE REGION, SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF WHERE THE
FRONT ENDS UP. FORECASTING SOUNDINGS SUPPORT A PRECIP-LOADED
DOWNBURST THREAT WITH MLCAPE NEAR 2500 J/KG AGAIN WITH DCAPE
VALUES BETWEEN 1000-1300 J/KG, AND TEI VALUES BETWEEN 28-32.
LINGERING CLOUD COVER COULD PUT A DAMPER ON THIS ENVIRONMENT,
BUT IF CLEARING IS SEEN THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN WITH MUCH OF THE FA IN ANOTHER
SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, WITH POSSIBLE FOG
AND STRATUS NEAR DAYBREAK FAVORING THE CSRA.
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE AIR MASS ALTHOUGH THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE
RETROGRADING TODAY ALLOWING FOR SOME POSSIBLE CONVECTION LATE IN
THE DAY TO MOVE INTO THE MIDLANDS, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN STORMS
REACHING THE TERMINALS IS LOW AND THEREFORE NOT INCLUDING IN
THIS FORECAST. SATELLITE IMAGERY ALREADY SHOWING SOME STRATUS
DEVELOPING IN GA AND STREAMING NORTHWARD TOWARD THE CSRA. HI-RES
GUIDANCE MIXED ON WHETHER OR NOT STRATUS WILL IMPACT TERMINALS
BUT HRRR IS COMING AROUND TO BRINGING STRATUS TO AGS/DNL/AIK
ALTHOUGH LIKELY TOO LATE. DECIDED TO GO WITH PREVAILING MVFR
STRATUS CIGS AT 07Z AGS AND 08Z DNL/AIK WITH TEMPO TO IFR CIGS
09Z-13Z. FOR THE OTHER TERMINALS CONFIDENCE IS LOWER SO JUST
INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR RESTRICTIONS. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT
AND VARIABLE THROUGH MID MORNING THEN PICKING UP TO AROUND 5 TO
6 KNOTS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CHANCES FOR RESTRICTIONS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. DIURNAL
STORM CHANCES CONTINUE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR SCZ016-018-020>022-025>031-035-037-038-041-115-116-
135>137.
GA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR GAZ040-063>065-077.
DISCUSSION...DH
AVIATION...23
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