203
FXUS62 KCAE 241730
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
130 PM EDT MON AUG 24 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO KEY MESSAGE. UPDATED AVIATION FOR
18Z TAF ISSUANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WITH INCREASING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
AS THE WEEK GOES ON.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WITH INCREASING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
AS THE WEEK GOES ON.
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED ACROSS THE MIDLANDS
THIS AFTERNOON AND SERVES AS THE DIVIDING LINE BETWEEN MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS ON MIDDAY SATELLITE IMAGERY.
THIS BOUNDARY IS ALSO EVIDENT IN THE DEWPOINT GRADIENT, WITH
VALUES IN THE MID-70S TO THE SOUTH/EAST AND MID-60S TO THE
NORTH/WEST. FOR THE REST OF TODAY AND INTO TUESDAY, THE UPPER-
LEVEL PATTERN WILL SUPPORT NORTHWEST FLOW AND CONTINUED
ADVECTION OF DIRER AIR INTO THE REGION. AS A RESULT, RAIN
CHANCES WILL REMAIN LOW, WITH ONLY ISOLATED DIURNALLY DRIVEN
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE, MOSTLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-95
CORRIDOR. THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
UNFAVORABLE FOR DEEP CONVECTION, WITH ONLY SHALLOW, FAIR WEATHER
CUMULUS IN THE AFTERNOON OUTSIDE OF THE SOUTHEASTERN MIDLANDS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL, ALTHOUGH STILL RELATIVELY
WARM AS HIGHS REACH THE LOWER 90S. LOWER DEWPOINTS SHOULD ALSO
KEEP HEAT INDICES FROM BECOMING OVERLY OPPRESSIVE COMPARED TO
RECENT WEEKS.
MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM MID TO LATE WEEK, LEADING
TO INCREASING AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. LREF
PROBABILITIES INDICATE A 50-70 PERCENT CHANCE OF PWAT VALUES
EXCEEDING 1.75 INCHES BEGINNING WEDNESDAY. THIS INCREASE IN
MOISTURE, COMBINED WITH UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING SHOULD SUPPORT
GREATER CHANCES FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION. WEAK SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE FLOW MAY PROVIDE ADDITIONAL FORCING AND FURTHER
ENHANCE COVERAGE. THURSDAY CURRENTLY APPEARS TO HAVE THE
GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION AS THE STALLED BOUNDARY MAY
BECOME REACTIVATED INTO THE FA. HOWEVER, THERE REMAINS
UNCERTAINTY IN THE EVOLUTION AND PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT. AT THIS
TIME, A SIGNIFICANT AIRMASS CHANGE APPEARS UNLIKELY, WITH
SEASONABLY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH DAILY CONVECTION CHANCES.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
A STALLED SURFACE FRONT IS SEEN ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN
MIDLANDS, NEAR OGB, WITH MEANINGFUL MOISTURE BEING KEPT SOUTH OF
THIS FRONT, AND DRIER AIR SEEN OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE FA.
THIS IS BRINGING FEW LOW-TOPPED CUMULUS AS WESTERLY TO
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AROUND 7-10 KTS DEVELOP. ANY CONVECTION
THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE FRONT IN THE COASTAL
PLAIN. CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY STORM NEAR OGB, BUT PROBABILITIES
ARE UNDER 30%. TONIGHT, DRY CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS ARE
EXPECTED WITH PASSING CIRRUS. LATEST HRRR/HREF GUIDANCE
INDICATES SOME LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE COULD POOL NEAR THE FRONT,
BRINGING PATCHES OF FOG, BUT CONFIDENCE IN IMPACTS MAINLY AT OGB
ARE TOO LOW TO ADD INTO THE TAF AT THE MOMENT. AFTER 14-16Z
TUESDAY, WINDS PICK BACK UP AROUND 5 KTS, NOW OUT OF THE
NORTHEAST WITH VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...ISOLATED STORMS EACH AFTERNOON WITH
HIGHER COVERAGE OF STORMS EXPECTED BY MIDWEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...7
AVIATION...DH
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