683
FXUS62 KCAE 110007
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
807 PM EDT MON AUG 10 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
EVENING UPDATE IN KEY MESSAGE #1. AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED
FOR 00Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. ISOLATED DIURNAL STORMS POSSIBLE EACH DAY THIS WEEK, WITH
DIMINISHING CHANCES MIDWEEK. A STRONG STORM CANNOT BE RULED
OUT.
- 2. INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED THIS WEEK,
ESPECIALLY BY THE MID TO LATE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
- 1. ISOLATED DIURNAL STORMS POSSIBLE EACH DAY THIS WEEK, WITH
DIMINISHING CHANCES MIDWEEK. A STRONG STORM CANNOT BE RULED
OUT.
AFTER A FAIRLY ACTIVE EARLY AFTERNOON, CONDITIONS HAVE QUIETED
DOWN THIS EVENING OUTSIDE OF SOME NEWLY DEVELOPED CONVECTION IN
THE UPSTATE OF SC AND EAST-CENTRAL GA. SPC MESOANALYSIS
INDICATES MODEST RECOVERY OCCURRED IN WAKE OF THE EARLY
AFTERNOON CONVECTION, BUT LINGERING MLCIN REMAINS ALONG/SOUTH OF
I-20. NORTHERN SPOTS REMAIN FAIRLY UNTAPPED WITH MLCAPE VALUES
NEAR 2000-2500 J/KG REMAINING, BUT INCREASING INHIBITION IS
EXPECTED WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. THERE ALSO APPEARS TO BE AN
OUTFLOW FROM PRIOR CONVECTION IN THE FAR NORTHERN MIDLANDS. IF
CONVECTION FROM THE UPSTATE CAN REACH, A FEW STORMS COULD BE
POSSIBLE (CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONGER ONE), BUT EVEN THIS
ACTIVITY HAS WEAKENED SOME OVER THE LAST 1-2 HOURS SO THIS IS
NOT LOOKING LIKELY. MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED
HEADING INTO THE OVERNIGHT.
THERE REMAINS RELATIVELY MINIMAL CHANGE WITH THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE IN TERMS OF RAIN/STORM CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEK.
MAINTENANCE OF DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AMIDST ROBUST
HEATING EACH DAY IS EXPECTED TO YIELD SEASONABLE TO STRONG
INSTABILITY DURING THE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WEAK
EMBEDDED PERTURBATION MAY AID IN BRINGING ADDITIONAL COVERAGE
THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE COVERAGE IS A BIT MORE SPOTTY TO ISOLATED
DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK AS FORCING FROM MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES
REMAINS JUST NORTH OF FA. GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY INDICATE
RISING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS
RIDGING STRENGTHENS OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH A SHORTWAVE
RIDGE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES, BUT THERE CONTINUES TO BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR WEAK TROUGHING MOVING IN THIS WEEKEND. THERE IS
ALSO THE POSSIBILITY FOR A DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO NEAR FA
BY THIS WEEKEND AS WELL. CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN
THIS HOWEVER, AS SEEN IN THE GENEROUS SPREAD ACROSS THE LREF'S
FOUR CLUSTERS. OVERALL, THE POTENTIAL FOR INCREASED RAIN CHANCES
EXISTS BY THIS WEEKEND, BUT CONFIDENCE IN REALIZING THIS IS LOW
AT THE MOMENT. AS IS TYPICAL WITH OUR DIURNAL PULSE CONVECTION,
A STRONG STORM OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH THE RISK OF
STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS, BUT WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS
UNLIKELY.
- 2. INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED THIS WEEK,
ESPECIALLY BY THE MID TO LATE WEEK.
STRENGTHENING RIDGING JUST TO OUR WEST THROUGH THE WEEK SHOULD
AID IN BRINGING A WARMING TREND WITH 500MB HEIGHTS PEAKING AT
THE NAEFS 97.5TH PERCENTILE LATE IN THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES
LIKELY REACH THE MID TO UPPER 90S EACH DAY TUESDAY THROUGH AT
LEAST FRIDAY. PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE PERIPHERY OF
A BERMUDA HIGH SHOULD ALSO AID IN KEEPING PWAT'S NEAR 2" AND
SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. HOWEVER, DEW POINTS ARE
HAVE TRENDED DOWNWARD FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE LATEST
GUIDANCE. WITH THE EXPECTED LOWER COVERAGE OF DIURNAL
CONVECTION EACH DAY, CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN HEAT INDICES ABOVE
100F DURING THIS PERIOD. THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAT INDICES ABOVE
105F AND POSSIBLY NEARING ADVISORY CRITERIA (108F) INCREASE
DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK WITH LREF PROBABILITIES FOR INDICES
ABOVE 105F REMAIN BETWEEN 30-50% ON THURSDAY BEFORE INCREASING
TO 50-70% FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS SIGNAL IS ALSO SUPPORTED IN
THE LATEST EC EFI WHERE VALUES OF AROUND 0.90 ARE SEEN FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. IT IS WORTH NOTING THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE SYNOPTIC
PATTERN AND THUS RAIN CHANCES THIS WEEKEND BRINGS LARGE NBM IQR
SPREADS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY (8-10 DEGREES). EITHER WAY,
HOT/HUMID CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY MOST OF THIS WEEK WITH
INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN HEAT INDICES EXCEEDING 105F BY THE MID
TO LATE WEEK. WITH THE PERSISTENCE OF HEAT THIS WEEK, BE SURE TO
TAKE HEAT SAFETY PRECAUTIONS.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
RELATIVELY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF
FORECAST PERIOD.
DIURNAL CONVECTION IS WANING WITH ONLY SOME CONVECTIVE DEBRIS
HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING. WHILE
IT CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT THAT THERE MAY BE SOME BRIEF
PREDAWN FOG IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED RAINFALL, ALL GUIDANCE IS
SHOWING VFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH TO 3 KNOTS OR LESS OVERNIGHT THEN PICK UP
FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST AFTER 15Z INCREASING TO 8 TO 10 KNOTS
AFTER 18Z.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A HOT AND DRIER WEATHER PATTERN
DEVELOPS THROUGH THE WEEK. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL BE LOW AND
RESTRICTIONS LIKELY MINIMAL AS HIGHS PUSH INTO THE UPPER 90S.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DH/29
AVIATION...23
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