804
FXUS62 KCAE 070518
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
118 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 06Z TAFS AND TO CONTINUE
MENTION OF POSSIBLE PATCHY FOG AT SOME TERMINALS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. HOT CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA, WITH CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. HIGHER CHANCES OF RAIN
RETURN THIS WEEKEND WITH A SLOW MOVING FRONT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: HOT CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA, WITH
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. HIGHER
CHANCES OF RAIN RETURN THIS WEEKEND WITH A SLOW MOVING FRONT.
THE FORECAST IS A CLASSICALLY SUMMER ONE, WITH HOT CONDITIONS
PERSISTING THROUGH THE PERIOD (REALLY UNTIL LATE THIS WEEKEND)
AND SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED. TODAY WILL LIKELY BE THE LAST
DAY UNTIL THIS WEEKEND THAT I EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS TO
DOT THE SKY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN ALMOST
ABYSMAL THE LAST FEW DAYS AT ANTICIPATING CONVECTION, WHICH
DOES MAKE SENSE GIVEN IT IS WEAKLY FORCED. STILL, THE SAME
SIGNAL PERSISTS AND IT CONTINUES TO FEATURE COVERAGE LOWER THAN
SHOULD BE EXPECTED. THE ENVIRONMENT IS VERY SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY/SUNDAY, WITH HREF MEAN SOUNDINGS SHOWING A CONVECTIVE
TEMP IN THE LOW 90S, 2" PWS, 1500-2500 J/KG OF SBCAPE, DCAPE
700-800, TEI ~25. SO AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE LAST COUPLE OF
DAYS, EXPECTING A RELATIVELY EARLY START TO CONVECTION AS TEMPS
QUICKLY WARM INTO THE LOW 90S BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. WE
WILL PROBABLY SEE LOWER COVERAGE TODAY THAN YESTERDAY AS HEIGHTS
WILL BE SLOWLY RISING; HOWEVER, THIS SHOULD BE MINOR ENOUGH TO
NOT HAMPER CONVECTION SHOULD IT GET GOING. STRONG TO MARGINALLY
SEVERE STORMS ARE PROBABLE GIVEN THE ABOVE ENVIRONMENT.
HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE RISING INTO WED/THUR AS LOW
AMPLITUDE RIDGING BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTHEAST. THIS ISN'T REALLY THAT STRONG BUT PWS DO FALL BACK TO
NEAR NORMAL SO PRECIP CHANCES LOOK TO WANE A BIT, ESPECIALLY ON
WEDNESDAY. THERE IS MORE OF A SIGNAL IN THE GUIDANCE TODAY THAN
24H AGO FOR ANOTHER WAVE OF ABOVE NORMAL PWS TO OVERSPREAD THE
AREA ON THURSDAY WHICH COULD RESULT IN MORE SHOWERS/STORMS
ACROSS THE AREA. A FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH OVER THE
WEEKEND AND PROVIDE AN IMPETUS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AGAIN. AS
HAS BEEN STRESSED THE LAST WEEK OR SO, THE HEAT CONTINUES TO BE
DANGEROUS, ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS THAT DON'T SEE RELIEF FROM
STORMS. MID TO UPPER 90S TEMPS CONTINUE TO BE COMMON, YIELDING
A LONG STRETCH OF INTENSE HEAT ACROSS THE AREA. PLEASE REMAIN
DILIGENT IN PRACTICING HEAT SAFETY IF YOU HAVE OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES PLANNED.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS ONCE AGAIN POSSIBLE IN AFTERNOON TSRA/SHRA
AND PREDAWN FOG/STRATUS.
EVENING CONVECTION CONTINUES TO WANE WITH LESS IMPACT ON THE
TERMINALS EXPECTED THROUGH MORNING. DUE TO EXTENSIVE RAINFALL
ACROSS THE REGION AND AT SOME TERMINALS, CONDITIONS MAY FAVOR
SOME MORNING VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN FOG SO HAVE CONTINUED THE
TEMPO GROUPS AT ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT AGS/DNL/AIK WHERE RAINFALL
WAS SPARSE. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS EXPECTED TO PICK UP BY 14Z TO
AROUND 6 TO 10 KNOTS. ANOTHER AFTERNOON OF SCATTERED CONVECTION
IS EXPECTED WITH A HOT AND HUMID AIR MASS IN PLACE AND HAVE KEPT
THE PROB30 GROUP FOR THUNDERSTORMS ALL TERMINALS 17-23Z TIME
FRAME.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...DAILY RAIN CHANCES AND POSSIBLE
RESTRICTIONS CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...PL
AVIATION...23
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