440
FXUS62 KCAE 061059
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
659 AM EDT THU AUG 6 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
EARLY MORNING SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. HEAT AND HUMIDITY CONTINUE, WITH DIURNAL CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AVIATION
DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 12Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. DIURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY THROUGH THE PERIOD.
DISCUSSION
- 1. DIURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY THROUGH THE PERIOD.
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA FROM THE WEST ALONG REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.
HOWEVER, CONVECTION HAS STARTED TO WEAKEN, ESPECIALLY AS IT
APPROACHES THE I-20 CORRIDOR. ANY LINGERING ACTIVITY SHOULD
DISSIPATE INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
LITTLE CHANGE HAS BEEN MADE IN THE OVERALL FORECAST. THE WEAK
UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT HAS BEEN SPINNING OVER THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS IS FINALLY BEING ABSORBED INTO A DIGGING LONGWAVE
TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES. IN ITS WAKE,
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A LOW-AMPLITUDE,
SEASONABLY STRONG RIDGE CENTERED JUST TO OUR SOUTH WILL BUILD IN
BY THE WEEKEND. DEEP-LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL MAINTAIN
ELEVATED PWATS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A CLASSIC SUMMERTIME
PATTERN WILL PERSIST AS 500MB HEIGHTS CLIMB TO AROUND THE 90TH
PERCENTILE FOR EARLY AUGUST. HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID
90S WITH DAILY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
WITH PWATS GENERALLY BETWEEN 1.8-2", EXPECT TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
CONVECTION. WHILE A FEW STRONGER STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT,
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. HOWEVER, EFFICIENT
RAINFALL RATES AND SLOW STORM MOTIONS MAY RESULT IN LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
CEILING AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN THROUGH
SUNRISE THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS TO
BE LIKELY OUTSIDE OF ISOLATED STORMS.
SHOWERS HAVE FINALLY DISSIPATED THIS MORNING, WITH ONLY SOME
LEFT OVER MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS REMAINING AROUND
SUNRISE. ALTHOUGH A BRIEF MVFR RESTRICTION CAN NOT BE COMPLETELY
RULED OUT THROUGH 14Z, EXPECT ENOUGH CLOUDINESS TO REMAIN TO
KEEP CONDITIONS VFR AT ALL LOCATIONS.
FOR MUCH OF THE DAYTIME HOURS AFTER 14Z, CEILINGS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO BE VFR, WITH CUMULUS RETURNING FOR MOST OF THE DAY.
MUCH LIKE THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS, SIMILAR COVERAGE OF ISOLATED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP. CURRENT PROBABILITIES SUPPORT KEEPING THE PROB30
GROUP AT LEAST INTO THE EVENING HOURS. AFTER SHOWERS DISSIPATE
TONIGHT, WINDS WILL GO LIGHT TO CALM, AND WITH LINGERING LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE CAN NOT RULE OUT A RETURN OF MVFR OR LOWER
RESTRICTIONS. CONFIDENCE IS SOMEWHAT ON THE LOWER SIDE RIGHT
NOW, SO WILL ONLY START LOWERING VISIBILITIES EVER SO SLIGHTLY
TO LOW END VFR TOWARDS MIDNIGHT. LATER ISSUANCES COULD END UP
TRENDING INTO MVFR LATE TONIGHT.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
THIS WEEK WITH EARLY MORNING RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ND
AVIATION...73
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