985
FXUS62 KCAE 040547
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
147 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 06Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE, PEAKING THIS WEEKEND.
ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT ALONG AND NORTH OF
I-20 FROM 12PM-8PM SATURDAY WITH HEAT INDICES UP TO 105F
POSSIBLE.
- 2. INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS
WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE, PEAKING THIS
WEEKEND. ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT ALONG AND
NORTH OF I-20 FROM 12PM-8PM SATURDAY WITH HEAT INDICES UP TO
105F POSSIBLE.
HAPPY INDEPENDENCE DAY! HOT WEATHER IS AGAIN EXPECTED OUT THERE,
WITH DANGEROUS HEAT LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON. SIMILAR TO THE PAST
FEW DAYS, A STRONG 500 HPA RIDGE REMAINS CENTERED TO OUR NORTH
OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC. 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS REVEALS THIS A BIT
FURTHER SOUTHEAST AND MORE SPRAWLING THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED.
DRY AIR, AUGMENTED BY SUBSIDENCE BENEATH THIS RIDGE, REMAINS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. PWS THIS AFTERNOON ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN
BELOW 1.5" WHICH SHOULD HELP KEEP THE DEWPOINTS MANAGEABLE AT
THE SURFACE. THIS DEEP MIXING IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW TEMPS TO MAKE
A RUN AT 100F TODAY. THE AXIS OF THE UPPER RIDGE HAS ALLOWED
THE HOTTEST AND MOST ANOMALOUS 850 HPA TEMPS REMAIN TO OUR NORTH
AND THIS LIKELY WILL BE THE CASE TODAY. STILL, WITH 850 HPA
TEMPS OF 20C-22C, HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD RANGE FROM
99F-101F ACROSS THE AREA. GIVEN THE OUTDOOR EVENTS TAKING PLACE,
WENT AHEAD WITH A HEAT ADVISORY ALONG AND NORTH OF I20 WHERE
THE HOTTEST TEMPS ARE GENERALLY FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON. WE
WON'T BE AT OUR SPECIFIC CRITERIA BUT THIS ADVISORY IS FOCUSED
ON THE IMPACTS WITH THE HOLIDAY. THE HEAT, ESPECIALLY AS IT
PERTAINS TO HIGH TEMPERATURES, IS FORECAST TO BEGIN TAKING A
STEP BACK BEGINNING SUNDAY. THE RIDGE THAT HAS DOMINATED THE
WEATHER ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW IS
EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY BREAK DOWN AS WE GET INTO THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK, RESULTING IN COOLER DAY TIME
HIGHS. HOWEVER, SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL HELP TO USHER IN
MORE SEASONAL TO SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN NORMAL MOISTURE VALUES.
SO MORE HEAT PRODUCTS MAY BE NEEDED AS WE GET INTO NEXT WEEK BUT
IT'LL LIKELY BE DEPENDENT ON DAILY CONVECTIVE COVERAGE.
BE DILIGENT TO TAKE APPROPRIATE HEAT SAFETY MEASURES THIS
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THE ELDERLY, YOUNG CHILDREN, PETS, AND THOSE
WITHOUT INDOOR COOLING WILL BE AT PARTICULAR RISK THIS WEEKEND
AND OVER THE COMING WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 2: INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AS WE APPROACH OUR
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON BUT IT IS UNLIKELY THAT
WE SEE ANYMORE THAN A STORM OR TWO. COVERAGE OF CONVECTION IS
LIKELY TO INCREASE BEGINNING ON SUNDAY AND PERSISTING THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN (AS PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED) AND ALLOW FOR PERSISTENT TROUGHING AND SHORTWAVES TO
PASS OVER THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE NEXT WEEK. GIVEN PWS
APPROACHING 2" AGAIN & ENSEMBLES SHOWING CAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG
EACH AFTERNOON, STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE. ML GUIDANCE HAS BEEN PERSISTENT WITH THE SIGNAL FOR
DAILY STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS AND DO EXPECT THAT TO
BE THE CASE WITH AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION. DAMAGING
WINDS ARE THE MOST LIKELY THREAT WITH ANY STRONG STORM THAT DOES
GET GOING. RAINFALL WILL LIKELY BE HIT AND MISS AS IS TYPICALLY
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR; HOWEVER, WOULDN'T BE TOO SURPRISED TO SEE
ONE OF THESE DAYS OVER-PERFORM COVERAGE WISE AND YIELD A DECENT
SHOT OF RAINFALL.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS. RIVER
FOG REMAINS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY AT OGB/AGS BUT CONFIDENCE TOO
LOW FOR TAF INCLUSION. BRIEF VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ASSOCIATED
WITH SMOKE FROM FIREWORKS IS ALSO POSSIBLE. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
AROUND 5-10 KTS SHOULD START AROUND MIDDAY ALONG WITH A FEW
CUMULUS CLOUDS. HIGH CLOUDS RETURN TONIGHT AS WINDS RETURN TO
LIGHT AND VARIABLE, OR PERHAPS FAVORING A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION
AROUND 5 KTS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RAIN CHANCES AND POSSIBLE
RESTRICTIONS START TO INCREASE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR SCZ016-018-
020>022-025>028-030-115-116.
GA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR GAZ040-
063>065.
DISCUSSION...PL
AVIATION...EC
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