763
FXUS62 KCAE 190545
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
145 AM EDT SAT SEP 19 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 06Z TAFS. OTHERWISE, NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- 2. COOLER AND DRIER AIR RETURNS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
BUT FORECAST UNCERTAINTY REMAINS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE ITS SLOW SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION
BEFORE STALLING OVER THE FORECAST AREA LATER TODAY. INCREASING
MOISTURE AND WEAK FORCING WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER CHANCE OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.
CONVECTION SHOULD BE HIGHEST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA, WHERE PWATS OF 1.8-2 INCHES AND AMPLE
DIURNAL HEATING WILL HELP MAINTAIN UNSETTLED CONDITIONS. WHILE A
LOW-END THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND MINOR FLOODING
REMAINS, MODEST INSTABILITY AND WEAK DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SHOULD
LIMIT THE SEVERE THREAT.
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND LOOKS SIMILARLY UNSETTLED, WITH
ADDITIONAL SPOTTY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE PERSISTS INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK, WITH PWATS REMAINING AROUND 120-150% OF NORMAL.
DESPITE LIMITED LARGE-SCALE FORCING, THE ANOMALOUSLY MOIST AIR
MASS, COMBINED WITH UNSEASONABLE HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS, WILL
SUPPORT DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH AFTERNOON
THROUGH TUESDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2: COOLER AND DRIER AIR RETURNS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK BUT FORECAST UNCERTAINTY REMAINS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS
UNCERTAINTY INCREASES REGARDING THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS
EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW IS FORECAST
TO EJECT FROM THE NORTHEAST GULF AND LIFT ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS EVOLUTION WILL ALLOW
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE NORTHEAST AND RIDGE
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE COAST, POTENTIALLY ESTABLISHING A COLD AIR
DAMMING WEDGE.
HOWEVER, THE CLASSIC SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED
OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION TYPICALLY FAVORED WITH THIS SETUP DOES
NOT APPEAR LIKELY TO DEVELOP UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEK. INSTEAD,
DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO ADVECT FROM THE NORTHWEST, WHICH SHOULD
LIMIT PRECIPITATION CHANCES LATE NEXT WEEK. REGARDING
TEMPERATURES, BLENDED GUIDANCE FAVORS NEAR- NORMAL HIGHS DURING
THIS PERIOD; HOWEVER, IQRS INDICATE SUBSTANTIAL SPREAD, WITH THE
DISTRIBUTION SKEWERED TOWARD COOLER SOLUTIONS. WE WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR TRENDS AS THE DOMINANT SUMMER PATTERN MAY FINALLY
BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
OTHER THAN BRIEF MVFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS TOWARDS SUNRISE,
EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
STORM ACTIVITY HAS PUSHED SOUTH OF ALL TAF LOCATIONS FOR THE 06Z
ISSUANCE, WITH ONLY VERY LIGHT RAINFALL RETURNS SHOWING UP ON
REGIONAL RADARS. METARS GENERALLY INDICATING THOSE LIGHT
RETURNS ARE NOT CAUSING ANY IMPACTS AT THIS TIME, SO VFR TO
START OFF THE PERIOD AT ALL SITES. GUIDANCE NOT ENTIRELY BULLISH
ON WIDESPREAD VISIBILITY ISSUES OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY WITH
EXPECTED MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS PERSISTING ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. DID INCLUDED A TEMPO FOR 4SM
BR THOUGH DUE TO LINGERING MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS. CLOUDS AS
STATED WILL REMAIN VFR, WITH BROKEN MID-LEVEL CLOUDS POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL TURN LIGHT AND
VARIABLE, THEN INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST BY LATE MORNING,
WITH SPEEDS BETWEEN 5-8 KNOTS ANTICIPATED. AS A WEAK FRONT SINKS
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON SATURDAY, CAN NOT COMPLETELY
RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION, AND HAVE INCLUDED MENTION OF
PROB30 FOR STORMS, ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS ON THE LOWER SIDE
AT THIS TIME. ANY SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE
WEAKENING/DISSIPATING BY 03Z.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND/OR STORMS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. MORNING CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS
ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ND
AVIATION...73
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