337
FXUS62 KCAE 181743
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
143 PM EDT SUN OCT 18 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT INTO THIS EVENING.
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR THE 18Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. COOL AND BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY WITH A LAKE WIND
ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES
GRADUALLY WARM TO NEAR NORMAL BY THE MID TO LATE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: COOL AND BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY WITH A
LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES
GRADUALLY WARM TO NEAR NORMAL BY THE MID TO LATE WEEK.
CLEAR SKIES AS FAR AS THE EYE CAN SEE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. THE PREVIOUSLY DISCUSSED COASTAL UPPER LOW AND
CORRESPONDING SURFACE LOW CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OFF THE COAST OF
NC. THIS HAS LED TO TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA AS
WELL AS A FAIRLY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET. AS A RESULT, NORTHEAST
WINDS ARE GENERALLY REACHING 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS IN THE 20-30
MPH RANGE. WITH THE NORTHEAST WINDS, COLD AIR ADVECTION HAS ALSO
LED TO WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES, CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S AT THIS HOUR. AFTERNOON HIGHS COULD REACH THE
MID 60S, WITH A FEW SPOTS POSSIBLY REACHING THE UPPER 60S. SKIES
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CLEAR ALLOWING FOR SOME DECENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING, SO A CHILLY NIGHT IS IN STORE AGAIN
TONIGHT. LOWS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S. A FEW
SPOTS COULD FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S. HOWEVER, THE LOWS WILL BE
PARTIALLY DEPENDENT ON WHETHER THE WINDS STAY ELEVATED
OVERNIGHT.
HEADING INTO THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK, MINIMAL CHANGE IN THE
FORECAST IS SEEN. REINFORCING HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD BACK
IN, POSSIBLY WITH BRIEF SHORTWAVE RIDGING INTO THE MID TO LATE
WEEK. THIS PATTERN SHOULD KEEP MUCH DRIER AIR IN PLACE (PWAT'S
UNDER 0.50"), BUT MOS/NBM AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
TEMPERATURES SHOULD GRADUALLY REACH CLOSER TO NORMAL BY THE MID
TO LATE WEEK. AT THIS TIME, THERE REMAINS LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN
ANY MEANINGFUL RAIN EVEN INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
GUSTY WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE.
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL TERMINALS WITH GUSTS
GENERALLY 20-25 KNOTS CONTINUING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO
THIS EVENING. WITH A LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING TONIGHT, GUSTS ARE
EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE BUT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH 18Z WITH BETWEEN GENERALLY 5 TO 10 KNOTS. DRY AIR
REMAINS IN PLACE WITH CLEAR SKIES CONTINUING AND A HIGH
PROBABILITY OF VFR CONDITIONS. WHILE A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR WAS OBSERVED BEFORE SUNRISE THIS MORNING, THE LOW
LEVEL JET TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO BE WEAKER SO HAVE LEFT OUT ANY
MENTION OF LLWS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PROBABILITY OF RESTRICTIONS
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS LOW.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ016-018-
020>022-025>031-035-037-038-041-115-116-135>137.
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GAZ040-
063>065-077.
DISCUSSION...29
AVIATION...96
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