808
FXUS62 KCAE 161813
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
213 PM EDT MON MAR 16 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
KEY MESSAGE 1 UPDATED. ATTENTION NOW TURNS TO GUSTY WINDS DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS, FOLLOWED BY THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERAL NIGHTS OF TEMPERATURES NEAR TO BELOW FREEZING. A FREEZE
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. RAIN TAPERS OFF TO SHOWERS AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH
THE REGION. GUSTY NON-THUNDERSTORM WINDS REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON.
- 2. THE FREEZE WARNING FOR TONIGHT HAS BEEN EXPANDED EASTWARD
AND NOW INCLUDES ALL BUT THE SOUTHEASTERN MIDLANDS. A FREEZE
WATCH IS IN EFFECT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
THE ENTIRE FA WHEN A HARD FREEZE POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: RAIN TAPERS OFF TO SHOWERS AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS
THROUGH THE REGION. GUSTY NON-THUNDERSTORM WINDS REMAIN POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON.
AFTERNOON RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THE MAIN AREA OF RAIN SHIFTING INTO
THE EASTERN MIDLANDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ELSEWHERE. SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS IN GEORGIA INDICATE GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO OUR FA DURING THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES, EXPECT FREQUENT
GUSTS BETWEEN 25 AND 35 MPH, WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH
POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP QUICKLY
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, SETTING UP FOR SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 2: THE FREEZE WARNING FOR TONIGHT HAS BEEN EXPANDED EASTWARD
AND NOW INCLUDES ALL BUT THE SOUTHEASTERN MIDLANDS. A FREEZE WATCH
IS IN EFFECT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR THE ENTIRE FA
WITH A HARD FREEZE POSSIBLE.
THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT BEHIND THE BOUNDARY, ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO DROP QUICKLY AS STRONG CAA DEVELOPS. WITH THE
FRONT MOVING THROUGH FASTER THAN ANTICIPATED, CLEARING SHOULD
OCCUR SOONER. WITH THIS IN MIND, THE FREEZE WARNING WAS
EXPANDED TO INCLUDE CHESTERFIELD, CALHOUN, BAMBERG, AND THE
WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF ORANGEBURG COUNTY. THESE ARE THE
LOCATIONS THAT HAVE AT LEAST A 50% CHANCE OF SEEING SUBFREEZING
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE. THE WIND
REMAINS THE PRIMARY DETERRENT TO RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT AS
GUSTY WINDS OFTEN LIMIT HOW COLD A LOCATION GETS. FORECAST LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S, COLDER IN THE
NORMALLY SHELTERED LOCATIONS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS
AND SEE IF THE REMAINING COUNTIES OF THE MIDLANDS (LEE, SUMTER,
CLARENDON, AND EASTERN ORANGEBURG) NEED TO BE INCLUDED IN THE
WARNING TONIGHT. WITH THE GROWING SEASON IN FULL SWING, IT IS
ADVISED THAT ANY SENSITIVE VEGETATION BE PROTECTED OR BROUGHT
INDOORS AS A PRECAUTION TONIGHT EVEN OUTSIDE OF THE COUNTIES
CURRENTLY IN THE FREEZE WARNING.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR SUBFREEZING
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD, PROMOTING IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS. THE ENTIRE FA REMAINS IN A FREEZE WATCH TOMORROW
NIGHT AND A HARD FREEZE IS POSSIBLE IN SOME LOCATIONS WITH MOST
LOCATIONS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 20S. A THIRD NIGHT OF NEAR TO
BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. IF TRENDS CONTINUE, A FREEZE WATCH MAY BE NEEDED FOR
AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE FA. THE MAIN TAKEAWAY IS THAT THOSE
WITH AGRICULTURAL INTERESTS SHOULD PREPARE TODAY FOR SEVERAL
NIGHTS OF NEAR TO BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
INTERMITTENT MVFR CONDITIONS TO START THE FORECAST PERIOD THEN
BECOMING VFR BY THIS EVENING AFTER A FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION.
WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON PRECEDES A
STRONG FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE AREA AGS/DNL 19Z-20Z CAE/CUB
20Z-21Z AND OGB 22Z TIME FRAME. INTERMITTENT MVFR CONDITIONS IN
THE RAIN EXPECTED UNTIL THE FRONT PASSES WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS
AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS. WINDS SHIFT TO
THE WEST WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND SHOULD INCREASE TO AROUND
15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE INTO THE EVENING
HOURS BEFORE WINDS SUBSIDE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS LATE TONIGHT AND
CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. SKIES SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT
THIS EVENING EVENTUALLY BECOMING CLEAR BY DAWN TUESDAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... NO SIGNIFICANT AVIATION CONCERNS
THROUGH THE WEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR SCZ016-018-
020>022-025>031-035-037-038-041-115-116-135>137.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR SCZ016-018-
020>022-025>028-030-035-037-041-115-116-135-136.
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR SCZ016-018-020>022-025>031-035-037-038-041-115-116-
135>137.
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR GAZ040-063>065-
077.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR GAZ040-
063>065-077.
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR GAZ040-063>065-077.
DISCUSSION...7
AVIATION...HC
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