448
FXUS62 KCAE 011023
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
623 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MINOR CHANGES TO THE KEY MESSAGE. AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED
FOR THE 12Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. TEMPERATURES WARM THROUGH THE WEEK, PEAKING DURING THE
INDEPENDENCE DAY WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: TEMPERATURES WARM THROUGH THE WEEK, PEAKING
DURING THE INDEPENDENCE DAY WEEKEND.
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES TO BE THE DOMINANT
ATMOSPHERIC FEATURE THAT WILL DICTATE THE WEATHER OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG (99TH PERCENTILE) UPPER
RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY REORIENT ITSELF OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC BY
THE END OF THE WEEK BEFORE BREAKING DOWN LATE IN THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO INDICATE PWAT VALUES LOWERING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA, WITH VALUES FALLING BELOW 1.5 INCHES
TODAY AND THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD SIGNIFICANTLY LIMIT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW A STRONG
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WITH LARGE INVERTED-V SIGNATURES RESULTING
FROM DEEP MIXING FURTHER SUPPORTING SUPPRESSED CONVECTIVE
CHANCES.
WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL BE HOT, WITH HIGHS EXPECTED IN THE MID
TO UPPER 90S, THE DRIER AIR AND DEEP MIXING SHOULD RESULT IN
LOWER DEWPOINTS AND THEREFORE LOWER HUMIDITY RESULTING IN HEAT
INDICES WELL BELOW OUR ADVISORY CRITERIA THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AS
WE MOVE INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND, MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING
AND THE PROBABILITY OF HEAT INDICES NEAR CRITERIA WILL INCREASE
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100 DEGREES AND HIGHER
DEWPOINTS. REGARDLESS OF WHETHER ADVISORY CRITERIA IS REACHED,
CONDITIONS WILL EXIST THAT POSE A RISK FOR HEAT-RELATED
ILLNESSES TO THOSE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS, WHICH WILL INCLUDE MANY
OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND FESTIVITIES. EVERYONE SHOULD PREPARE
ACCORDINGLY AND BE ALERT TO THE HEAT AND STAY HYDRATED. THE
INCREASING MOISTURE WILL INCREASE INSTABILITY AND CHANCES OF
CONVECTION LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER
RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN.
AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
THROUGH 12-13Z, SOME TYPICAL MORNING MIFG MAY DEVELOP AROUND
CAE/AGS/OGB, THOUGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN ANY RESTRICTIONS;
INCLUDED A TEMPO FOR VFR MIFG FOR THE TIME BEING. A SIMILAR
PATTERN IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AS TUESDAY, WITH EAST WINDS
INCREASING TO 6-10 KTS BY MID- MORNING AND GUSTS UP TO 12 KNOTS
IN THE AFTERNOON. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST, OUTSIDE OF A VERY
ISOLATED SHOWER, WITH TYPICAL SUMMER CU AROUND 5-6K FEET
DEVELOPING DURING THE DAY AND INCREASING CIRRUS MOVING IN TOWARD
THE END OF THE PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CONVECTION UNLIKELY FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS RIDGING BUILDS OVERHEAD. BRIEF EARLY
MORNING RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE. RAIN CHANCES AND POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS
START TO INCREASE SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...7
AVIATION...CJR
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