428
FXUS62 KCAE 262051
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
451 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR LATE AFTERNOON UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED EACH DAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING AND A SURGE OF MOISTURE INTO THE FORECAST
AREA WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. SATELLITE DERIVED
PWAT VALUES SHOW VALUES EXCEEDING 2 INCHES PUSHING FROM THE
LOWCOUNTRY UP INTO CENTRAL SC WITH A TONGUE OF HIGHER DEWPOINTS
STRETCHING TO NEWBERRY AND SALUDA COUNTIES. THIS AREA HAS BEEN
THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TODAY. WITH DCAPE VALUES
GENERALLY BELOW 700 J/KG, PRECIP LOADING WOULD HAVE TO BE THE
MAIN DRIVER OF ANY SEVERE WEATHER. IT IS POSSIBLE A FEW STORMS
COULD BECOME SEVERE BUT HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT DUE
TO SLOW STORM MOVEMENT.
THE OVERALL PATTERN REMAINS CONSISTENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
WITH SHORTWAVES ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH HELPING TO PROMOTE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. DEEP SW FLOW WILL KEEP ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE ELEVATED ABOVE NORMAL. GIVEN THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT
AND POTENTIAL FOR SLOW-MOVING OR TRAINING CONVECTION, LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT
SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED, ALTHOUGH A FEW ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS
PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING AND POSSIBLY OVERNIGHT AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY PROMOTES CONTINUED CONVECTION.
AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
DUE TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS....
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. AS OF 21Z, SLOW MOVING CONVECTION IS
PASSING OVER AIK AND IS NEAR AGS/DNL. MEANWHILE, RAIN HAS
DIMINISHED SIGNIFICANTLY AROUND THE REMAINING TERMINALS,
CAE/CUB/OGB. EXPECT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE TRENDING
DOWNWARD INTO THE EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING AROUND SUNSET. A
PROB30 REMAINS IN PLACE UNTIL 00Z AT ALL TERMINALS TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF BRIEF RESTRICTIONS. QUIET WEATHER IS THEN
EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT, THOUGH GUIDANCE IS
SUGGESTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS AND/OR FOG AGAIN
TOWARDS DAYBREAK THURSDAY. ANY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD LIFT BY
MIDDAY WITH RENEWED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BEYOND THE
END OF THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CJR
AVIATION...7
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