440
FXUS62 KCAE 051705 CCA
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
105 PM EDT WED AUG 5 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
HEAT AND HUMIDLY RETURN WITH ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION
CONTINUING. AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 18Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE, WITH CHANCES FOR DIURNAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THROUGH THE PERIOD.
DISCUSSION
- 1. HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE, WITH CHANCES FOR DIURNAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THROUGH THE PERIOD.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH IN THE PATTERN OVER THE NEXT SEVEN
DAYS. GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE PERSISTENT
TROUGHING OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS WILL CONTINUE TO FILL AND LIFT
NORTHWARD. REPLACING IT WILL BE A LOW AMPLITUDE, SEASONALLY
STRONG RIDGE, CENTERED A BIT TO OUR SOUTH PER LREF MEANS. WHILE
HEIGHTS SHOULD BE IN THE ~90TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR,
PERSISTENTLY HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE LOOKS LIKE IT WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS SHOULD
FOSTER A CLASSICALLY SUMMER PATTERN, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO
MID 90S AND DAILY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN THIS AS LREF IQR SPREAD IS QUITE LOW FOR
BOTH 500 HPA HEIGHTS AND PWS THROUGH MUCH OF THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
PLUS, A STRONG SURFACE BERMUDA HIGH WILL BE ENTRENCHED, AND THIS
USUALLY OFFERS ONE OR TWO INVERTED SURFACE TROUGHS TO HELP
FOCUS CONVECTION. WITH PWS OF 1.8" TO 2.1" THROUGH THE PERIOD,
EXPECT TYPICAL SUMMERTIME WEATHER. STRONG STORMS CAN'T BE RULED
OUT BUT WILL GENERALLY BE LIMITED TO THE STRONGEST CONVECTION
AND LIKELY WON'T BE WIDESPREAD.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, OUTSIDE OF
SCATTERED STORMS. IFR CIGS AND VSBY POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING.
A TYPICAL SUMMER AFTERNOON IS UNFOLDING AS MORNING STRATUS BURNS
OFF. SOME BROKEN STRATO-CU WILL LAST THROUGH ROUGHLY 20Z BEFORE
TYPICAL SUMMER CU LINGERS INTO THE EVENING. SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON BUT CONFIDENCE IS
TOO LOW FOR ANYTHING BEYOND A PROB30 AT THIS TIME FOR ANY GIVEN
TAF SITE. CONVECTION WILL WIND DOWN AFTER 01Z. SOME OVERNIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING STRATUS IS EXPECTED INTO THURSDAY WITH
WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS LIKELY. WITH LESS WIDESPREAD RAIN TODAY
COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY, FOG AND EXTREMELY LOW CIGS ARE LESS
LIKELY AND GUIDANCE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE POTENTIAL. SO
ONLY INCLUDING A TEMPO GROUP FOR THE TIME BEING.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
THIS WEEK WITH EARLY MORNING RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...PL
AVIATION...42
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