581
FXUS62 KCAE 031052
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
652 AM EDT FRI APR 3 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 12Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY.
- 2. POTENTIAL FOR INCREASED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS NEXT WEEK BEHIND
A COLD FRONT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNDAY.
ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THINKING REGARDING DIURNAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND SATURDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO
SHIFT EASTWARD WITH SOME WEAKENING OF THE SURFACE HIGH OFFSHORE,
WHILE CONTINUED SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL PUSH PWAT VALUES TO AROUND
1.25"-1.5" THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO
SHOW AN ELEVATED WEAK CAPPING INVERSION PERSISTING THROUGH SATURDAY
WHICH WOULD LIMIT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL AND THEREFORE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. THAT SAID, STILL THINK THERE WILL BE AT LEAST
A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT POP UP TODAY AND TOMORROW, WITH A
FOCUS ACROSS THE EASTERN MIDLANDS TODAY AND THE WESTERN
MIDLANDS/CSRA ON SATURDAY. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE RATHER
LOW, GENERALLY A COUPLE TENTHS OF AN INCH OR LESS, AND THE SEVERE
THREAT REMAINS LOW WITH A LACK OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT OR WIND SHEAR.
CONVECTION WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND GENERALLY WEAKEN AND
DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING IN THE EVENING.
SHOWERS AND STORMS SUNDAY MAY BE SLIGHTLY MORE ORGANIZED, GIVEN IT
WILL BE DRIVEN BY THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. HOWEVER,
THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT REMAINS QUITE LOW, WITH LIMITED
INSTABILITY AND THE BEST DYNAMICS AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT REMAINING
NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST SUNDAY WITH
THE AXIS PASSING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES, WHILE AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL WORK INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATE SUNDAY EVENING. A BROKEN
LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS FAVORED AHEAD OF THE FRONT,
WITH THE GEFS PROBABILITIES OF CAPE >500 J/KG LESS THAN 20% ACROSS
THE AREA. THE MEDIAN QPF AMOUNT FROM THE NBM REMAINS AROUND 0.2
INCHES OR LOWER, AND BOTH THE GEFS AND ECENS PROBABILITIES OF >0.1"
ARE LIMITED TO GENERALLY 40-70% FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
HOWEVER GIVEN THE EXPECTED SCATTERED, CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE
SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO, WE MAY SEE SOME LOCALIZED
AMOUNTS ABOVE 0.25". IT'S LOOKING LIKE A HIGH POP/LOW QPF SCENARIO,
AND NOT MUCH RELIEF FROM THE DROUGHT IS ANTICIPATED WITH THIS SYSTEM.
KEY MESSAGE 2: POTENTIAL FOR INCREASED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS NEXT
WEEK BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
GIVEN RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE IN SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS APPEAR TO BE ELEVATED
NEXT WEEK BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT. A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS WILL
REPLACE THE CURRENT ONE AS EARLY AS MONDAY AND REMAIN IN PLACE AT
LEAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. PWAT ANOMALIES ARE EXPECTED
TO FALL TO AROUND 50 PERCENT OF NORMAL ON MONDAY, AND POTENTIALLY
DROP FURTHER TO ONLY 25 PERCENT OF NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL
YIELD DAYTIME HUMIDITY VALUES BELOW 30 PERCENT FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY, AND BELOW 25 PERCENT BY WEDNESDAY. ADDITIONALLY, NORTHEAST
TO EAST WINDS MAY BE ELEVATED AND GUSTY AT TIMES ON WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
RESTRICTIONS FROM LOW CLOUDS AND/OR FOG THIS MORNING....
EARLY MORNING SATELLITE AND THE LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW
WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE TERMINALS. IT APPEARS TO BE A
MIX OF IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS AND FOG WITH LOWERED VISIBILITIES
CURRENTLY BEING REPORTED AT CAE, OGB, AND AGS. RESTRICTIONS ARE
LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH MID-MORNING BEFORE THE CLOUDS LIFT
AND SCATTER OUT. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS INCREASE AFTER
DAYBREAK AND WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST. WITH
MORE MOISTURE AVAILABLE, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY. WILL MAINTAIN A
VCSH AND OMIT ANY THUNDER CHANCES FOR NOW DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE.
ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES FORM SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY AFTER
SUNSET.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MORNING STRATUS IS POSSIBLE INTO
THE WEEKEND WITH INCREASED MOISTURE IN PLACE. BETTER CHANCES FOR
DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY ON
SUNDAY WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...EC
AVIATION...7
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