065
FXUS62 KCAE 261702
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
102 PM EDT FRI JUN 26 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 18Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. PROLONGED HOT PATTERN EXPECTED WITH DANGEROUS HEAT POSSIBLE THIS
WEEKEND AND A SIGNAL FOR A MORE IMPACTFUL, INTENSE HEAT EVENT
BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
- 2. SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY THROUGH
MONDAY. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: PROLONGED HOT PATTERN EXPECTED WITH DANGEROUS HEAT
POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND AND A SIGNAL FOR A MORE IMPACTFUL, INTENSE
HEAT EVENT BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
GUIDANCE REMAINS IMPRESSIVELY CONSISTENT WITH ITS SIGNAL FOR
PROLONGED HEAT OVER THE NEXT 7-10 DAYS. WV IMAGERY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON REVEALS THE MAJOR PLAYERS COMING INTO PLACE TO SUPPORT
A LONG DURATION PERIOD OF HEAT THROUGHOUT AND BEYOND THIS
FORECAST PERIOD. A WEAK SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO PROGRESS TOWARDS
THE AREA, FORECAST TO CONTINUE WEAKENING AS IT DOES SO. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE, STRETCHING FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC INTO THE GULF
IS BUILDING IN STRENGTH TODAY. FURTHER UPSTREAM, THE DEEP AND
ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS PUSHING INTO THE WESTERN CONUS,
FORECAST TO CONTINUE DIGGING OVER THE COMING DAYS. THIS IS
FORECAST TO YIELD A RAPID AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
THIS WEEKEND, WITH IT RETROGRADING NORTHWEST AND SETTLING IN THE
MID-MS AND OH VALLEY REGION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S THIS WEEKEND SHOULD COMBINE WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 90S TO YIELD HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 103F-106F
ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO HELP ALLEVIATE SOME OF THE HEAT BUT
IT WON'T COMPLETELY ELIMINATE IT. IT IS UNLIKELY THAT WE GET TO
HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT KEEP HEAT SAFETY TIPS AT THE FRONT OF
YOUR MIND IF YOU HAVE OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES!
AS THE RIDGE BUILDS TO THE WEST, WE WILL HAVE A BIT OF A TROUGH
DIG INTO THE EASTERN CONUS BRIEFLY EARLY NEXT WEEK, HELPING TO
COOL TEMPS A BIT ON MONDAY AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY. THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL BE A BIT DRIER, WITH DEWPOINTS MIXING DOWN INTO
THE MID 60S. BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, THOUGH, INTENSE HEAT
CONTINUES TO SHOW UP IN GUIDANCE. THE UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE BUILDING BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, WITH THE RIDGE
AXIS EXPECTED TO SHIFT MORE OVER/ALONG THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS,
WITH HEIGHTS AT THE CORE OF THIS RIDGE FORECAST TO BE IN THE
99TH PERCENTILE FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. ENSEMBLES
ARE NEARLY UNANIMOUS IN SHOWING HIGH PROBABILITIES (80%+) OF
850 HPA TEMPS >20C ARRIVING FOR THE FOURTH OF JULY HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. THIS IS EXPECTED TO PROMOTE HIGHS OF 100F+ EACH OF
JULY 2-4. THE EXTENDED ECE EFI FORECAST FOR TEMPS IN THIS PERIOD
REVEALS EFI VALUES OF 0.8+ AND NON-ZERO SHIFT OF TAILS VALUES,
INDICATIVE OF INTENSE HEAT IN THIS PERIOD. WE CONTINUE TO STRESS
THE NEED TO REVIEW HEAT SAFETY GUIDANCE GIVEN THE NUMBER OF
OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES THAT ARE EXPECTED DURING THE SECOND HALF OF
NEXT WEEK AND INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. GIVEN WE WON'T BE
DIRECTLY UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE, THERE IS A CHANCE THAT CLUSTERS
OF THUNDERSTORMS COULD THROW A WRENCH INTO THIS. HOWEVER, THAT
IS FOR LATER FORECASTS. THE MAIN MESSAGE REMAINS THAT THE
SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN IS REMINISCENT OF INTENSE HEAT WAVES WE
HAVE HAD IN THE PAST, AND THE CURRENT FORECAST SUGGESTS A PERIOD
OF INTENSE HEAT OVERLAPPING WITH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
KEY MESSAGE 2: SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY
THROUGH MONDAY. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
A PLUME OF 2" PWS IS CURRENTLY PASSING THROUGH THE AREA IN
ADVANCE OF A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. SBCAPE IS PRETTY ROBUST
GIVEN UPPER 80S TEMPS AND LOW 70S DEWPOINTS SO AGITATED CUMULUS
IS DEVELOPING, WITH ONE SPECIFIC CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS
CURRENTLY ACROSS THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
LIKELY TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON, WITH A LACK OF
SHEAR AND HIGH 0C AND -20C HEIGHTS LIKELY LIMITING STORM
INTENSITY OVERALL. A SIMILAR PICTURE IS EXPECTED TO BE PAINTED
ON BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY (AND POSSIBLY MONDAY) AS THE
COMBINATION OF SURFACE THERMAL TROUGHS & DECAYING CONVECTION
FROM UPSTREAM YIELDS THE POTENTIAL FOR STORMS EACH AFTERNOON.
STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE BOTH DAYS BUT ARE UNLIKELY TO BE
WIDESPREAD. MONDAY'S STORM THREAT IS A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN AS THE
TROUGH DRIVING SUNDAY'S STORMS SHIFTS EASTWARD. HOWEVER,
GUIDANCE IS A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH RAIN CHANCES THAN IT WAS
24 HOURS AGO, SO THE TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
SATELLITE CONTINUES TO SHOW SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS FIELD
ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. CEILINGS OUTSIDE OF
SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN VFR BETWEEN 3.5-4.5KFT. IMPACTS FROM
SHOWERS OR STORMS WILL BE ABLE TO BRING CEILINGS DOWN CLOSE TO
3KFT, AND VISIBILITIES DOWN TO 4SM IN -TSRA, OR EVEN LOWER IF
STRONGER SHOWERS/STORMS CAN GET DEVELOPED. HANDLED CONVECTION
WITH A TEMPO GROUP AT ALL SITES THROUGH 22Z, THEN PROB30 THROUGH
01Z. ONCE SHOWERS AND STORMS DIMINISH THIS EVENING, EXPECTING
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. BRIEF VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS MAY
BECOME POSSIBLE AT AGS/OGB DUE TO PATCHY SHALLOW GROUND FOG.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY SHOULD YIELD DIURNAL CONVECTION
AND POSSIBLE ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS. BRIEF MORNING VSBY/CIG
RESTRICTIONS ALSO POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...PL
AVIATION...73
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