649
FXUS62 KCAE 280016
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
816 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. DRIER CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO START NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED EACH DAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. DRIER CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO START NEXT WEEK.
A SLOW MOVING BATCH OF CONVECTION REMAINS IN THE PEE DEE THIS
EVENING WITH IMPRESSIVE RAINFALL RATES EXCEEDING 2-3"/HR. THIS
COMES AS LINGERING INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH SLOW STORM MOTIONS
AND PWAT'S NEAR 2.20" BRING THE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT.
THIS THREAT COULD PERSIST FOR THE COMING 1-2 HOURS BEFORE MOSTLY
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT. CANNOT FULLY RULE OUT A
COUPLE STRAY SHOWERS OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING, BUT
IMPACTFUL WEATHER IS NOT LIKELY TONIGHT.
THE PERSISTENT TROUGH IS FORECAST TO HANG AROUND THROUGH ABOUT
SATURDAY, WITH A DEEP PLUME OF MOISTURE ATOP THE AREA ON FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY STILL. AS A RESULT, SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED BOTH DAYS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. HIGH PWS CAN AND SHOULD RESULT IN CONTINUED HEAVY RAINFALL
ACROSS THE AREA, WHICH HAS RESULT IN PARTS OF THE AREA BEING
INCLUDED IN A MARGINAL AND SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
THROUGH SATURDAY. FLASH FLOODING LIKELY WON'T BE A WIDESPREAD
ISSUE BUT STORMS SHOULD BE EFFICIENT ENOUGH AT PRODUCING
RAINFALL TO MAKE ANY TRAINING OR SLOW MOVERS CAPABLE OF FLASH
FLOODING.
AS WE GET LATER INTO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK, CONFIDENCE
CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING
OVERHEAD AND PERSISTING. THIS 500 HPA RIDGE SHOULD YIELD ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES BEGINNING MONDAY AND PERSISTING THROUGH THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. IT IS UNLIKELY THAT WE WILL SEE
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO HELP KEEP TEMPS DOWN DURING THIS
PERIOD AS UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE BENEATH THE RIDGE CENTER SHOULD
HOLD CONVECTION MOSTLY AT BAY. GIVEN THIS, THE POTENTIAL FOR
ANOMALOUS HEAT IS RISING. HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S APPEAR
POSSIBLE, AS SIGNALED BY A PRETTY ROBUST EFI SIGNAL AT THIS
TIMEFRAME. GIVEN CONSISTENT DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S, DANGEROUS HEAT
INDEX VALUES ARE AGAIN FORECAST TO RETURN TO THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THIS PERIOD, ESPECIALLY TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY OF NEXT
WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
CONVECTION DIMINISHES THIS EVENING WITH VFR CONDITIONS. ANOTHER
ROUND OF STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH
CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS BEFORE MORE SHOWERS/STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
CONVECTION IS DECREASING IN COVERAGE THIS EVENING WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND DEBRIS CLOUDINESS IN PLACE. A FEW STRAY SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT CANNOT BE RULED OUT, BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS LOW.
HIGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO YIELD ANOTHER ROUND OF
STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG, ESPECIALLY WHERE RAIN FELL THIS
AFTERNOON. THE LATEST HRRR RUNS ARE FAIRLY AGGRESSIVE IN TERMS
OF TIMING, HAVING STRATUS DEVELOPMENT AS EARLY AS 03-06Z, WHILE
LAMP GUIDANCE IS A BIT SLOWER. CONSIDERING STRATUS DEVELOPED IN
THIS EARLIER WINDOW LAST NIGHT WITH SIMILAR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TONIGHT, LEANED A BIT MORE TOWARD THE EARLIER TIMEFRAME FOR
ONSET. OVERALL, IFR TO PERIODS OF LIFR CIG AND/OR VSBY
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY AFTER 06Z, CONTINUING
THROUGH 12-14Z BEFORE GRADUALLY LIFTING THROUGH THE MORNING AND
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS LATE FRIDAY MORNING PICK UP
AROUND 5-8 KTS OUT OF THE SOUTH AND ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED AFTER 17-19Z, WHICH HAS BEEN ADDRESSED
WITH A PROB30 GROUP AT ALL SITES FOR NOW.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THIS WEEKEND. DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DH/PL
AVIATION...DH
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