582
FXUS62 KCAE 251045
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
645 AM EDT THU JUN 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 12Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. DANGEROUS HEAT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS WEEKEND, CONTINUING
INTO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: DANGEROUS HEAT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS WEEKEND,
CONTINUING INTO NEXT WEEK.
SEASONABLY HOT TODAY, ALTHOUGH DEW POINTS ONCE AGAIN WILL BE A BIT
LOWER THAN NORMAL AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SLOWLY RETURNS. MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED A BIT COOLER FOR TOMORROW WITH MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND STORMS AND INCREASED CLOUD COVERAGE EXPECTED DURING THE
AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA.
THE POTENTIAL FOR DANGEROUS HEAT INCREASES THIS WEEKEND WITH
BUILDING UPPER RIDGING OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ENSEMBLE MENS
INDICATE THAT 500MB HEIGHTS WILL APPROACH 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED OVER THE
FORECAST AREA. BLENDED GUIDANCE DOES APPEAR TO BE KEEPING DEW POINTS
A BIT TOO HIGH COMPARED TO SOME RAW GLOBAL MODEL OUTPUT. RELATIVELY
HIGH LREF PROBABILITIES (AROUND 50 PERCENT OR GREATER) OF DEW POINTS
DIPPING BELOW 70F EACH AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LIMIT HEAT INDICES
SOMEWHAT AND LOWERS CONFIDENCE IN THE NEED FOR A HEAT ADVISORY,
ALTHOUGH WITH THE HEAT INDEX STILL EXPECTED TO APPROACH 105F EACH
AFTERNOON, HEAT WILL BE DANGEROUS AND PERSISTENT WITH STRONG
GUIDANCE CONSENSUS IN THE UPPER RIDGE SLOWLY SHIFTING EASTWARD INTO
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, LEADING TO CONTINUED ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES. COMBINED WITH LITTLE OVERNIGHT RELIEF WITH ABOVE
AVERAGE LOW TEMPERATURES AS WELL, MOST OF THE AREA IS HIGHLIGHTED IN
MAJOR HEATRISK SATURDAY THROUGH THE WEDNESDAY AND EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE BEYOND MID-WEEK.
OVERALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH MOST NOTABLE CHANCES FRIDAY AS MENTIONED EARLIER ALONG WITH A
SHORTWAVE ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGING SUNDAY WHICH MAY
LEAD TO STRONGER STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
HIGHEST CHANCES IN THE EASTERN/NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA WHERE THE WEAK SHORTWAVE IS MOST LIKELY TO PASS NEAREST.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
CLOUD BASES THIS MORNING AROUND 6-7KFT WITH PASSING HIGH CLOUDS
AS WELL OVER THE TERMINALS. SCATTERED CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
POSSIBLE TODAY BUT HIGH CONFIDENCE IN REMAINING VFR. WINDS WILL
BE GENERALLY LIGHT, AROUND 5 KNOTS OUT OF THE SSW. A STRAY
SHOWER IS POSSIBLE FOR THE AUGUSTA TERMINALS BUT PROBABILITY IS
VERY LOW. TONIGHT, WINDS BECOME MOSTLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE. THERE
IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR NEAR SUNRISE RESTRICTIONS MAINLY FOR FOG
PRONE AGS/OGB BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAF.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY INTO
THIS WEEKEND SHOULD YIELD DAILY DIURNAL CONVECTION AND POSSIBLE
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS. THE BEST CHANCES FOR THESE
SHOWERS/STORMS IS FRIDAY AND SUNDAY. BRIEF MORNING VSBY
RESTRICTIONS ALSO POSSIBLE INTO THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...96
AVIATION...DH
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