327
FXUS62 KCAE 191041
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
641 AM EDT FRI JUN 19 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 12Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND
INTO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN RETURNS FOR
THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
AFTER THE REMNANTS OF ARTHUR MOVE OUT OF THE AREA, A FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO SLIDE THROUGH THE FA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING,
BRINGING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER/STORM CHANCES. SLIGHTLY
DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT THIS WEEKEND, BUT
WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW 90S. MULTIPLE
DISTURBANCES ARE FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH UPPER ZONAL FLOW,
BRINGING A MORE SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN OF DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK.
LOOKING FURTHER, THE UPPER PATTERN BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED AS
TROUGHING DEEPENS OVER THE MIDWEST AND HEIGHTS FALL ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE BY THAT POINT,
BUT THE ARE INDICATIONS THAT A SHORTWAVE MAY EJECT ACROSS THE
REGION, POTENTIALLY SUPPORTING AN UPTICK IN CONVECTION AND
PERHAPS SEVERE WEATHER. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW AT
THIS TIME FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
MVFR OR IFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST TO MID-MORNING, FOLLOWED BY
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
AS THE REMNANT LOW OF FORMER TROPICAL CYCLONE ARTHUR PASSES THROUGH
DURING THE MORNING HOURS, ONE ADDITIONAL BAND OF SHOWERS WILL
ACCOMPANY ITS PASSAGE, WITH THE RAIN POTENTIALLY REDUCING
VISIBILITIES AND AT TIMES MIXING DOWN SOME HIGHER GUSTS UPWARDS
OF ABOUT 20 KT. WITH SUSTAINED WINDS FROM 10 TO 14 KTS THIS
MORNING IT WILL PRECLUDE LLWS DESPITE WINDS AT 2 KFT AROUND 30
TO 35 KTS. THE RAIN SHOULD GENERALLY COME TO AN END BY MID
MORNING, BUT LOW CEILINGS WILL REMAIN AN ISSUE, WITH MVFR OR
IFR CEILINGS PERSISTING THROUGH ABOUT 16-17Z AT THE TERMINALS.
AFTER THAT CEILINGS WILL RISE TO VFR LEVELS, AND EVENTUALLY
SCATTER OUT BY THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE SOUTHERLY
AT THE START OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, BUT VEER MORE WESTERLY BY
LATE MORNING WITH SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF 8-12 KT. WINDS SHOULD
BECOME RATHER LIGHT OUT OF THE WEST- SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION TO
RETURN SUNDAY, ALTHOUGH COVERAGE WILL BE ISOLATED WITH HIGHER
COVERAGE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ND
AVIATION...JAQ
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