887
FXUS62 KCAE 162356
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
756 PM EDT WED SEP 16 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION UPDATED FOR 00Z TAFS. OTHERWISE, NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR CONTINUES INTO LATE IN WEEK.
- 2. INCREASING MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES RETURN FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR CONTINUES INTO
LATE IN WEEK.
AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST AREA IS EXPECTED TO
RETROGRADE WEST BEFORE AN UPPER LOW/INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPS OFF
THE COAST AND BREAKS THE RIDGE DOWN. MEANWHILE, AT THE SURFACE
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO MARCH TOWARD THE GULF COAST
STATES, USHERING IN A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND DRIER AIR. TEMPERATURES WILL HANG AROUND THE
UPPER-80S TO LOW-90S TODAY AND TOMORROW BEFORE REACHING THE
MID-90S BY THE WEEKEND. DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND
60F, WITH SOME SPOTS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 50S THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ALL IN ALL, SEASONABLE TEMPS CAN BE
EXPECTED TOMORROW ONCE AGAIN WHILE RELATIVELY DRY AIR REMAINS IN
PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2: INCREASING MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES RETURN FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW/INVERTED TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE
WESTWARD FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. AS IT DOES,
MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES BEGIN TO INCREASE FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. THE MAIN CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS
FORECASTS IS THAT GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED TOWARD A SOONER ARRIVAL
OF RAIN CHANCES TO THE AREA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
ANTICIPATED TO ARRIVE AT THE END OF THE WORK WEEK RATHER THAN
THE WEEKEND. RAIN CHANCES GENERALLY CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK AS
INCREASED MOISTURE LINGERS IN THE AREA. PWS GENERALLY RANGE
BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2.0 WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S. A
RELATIVE LULL IN COVERAGE IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY. THE EFI SIGNALS
WARMER THAN AVERAGE ON FRIDAY, BUT TEMPS DROP BACK TO NEAR
NORMAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE 24HR FORECAST PERIOD.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH ONLY A FEW
PASSING HIGHER CIRRUS. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE
THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO
NEAR CALM OVERNIGHT. DRIER AIR IN PLACE TONIGHT SHOULD PREVENT
ANY FOG/STRATUS CONCERNS. WINDS PICK BACK UP TO AROUND 5-6 KNOTS
AFTER 15Z MAINLY FROM AN EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RAIN AND RESTRICTIONS UNLIKELY FOR
MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
BY THIS WEEKEND.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...NS
AVIATION...23
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