256
FXUS62 KCAE 201006
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
606 AM EDT SAT JUN 20 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 12Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN RETURNS THIS WEEKEND
INTO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN RETURNS THIS
WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE DRIFTING THROUGH THE AREA
THIS MORNING BEFORE STALLING OUT JUST TO OUR SOUTH. BEHIND IT,
DIRER AND MORE STABLE AIR WILL SETTLE IN FOR THE WEEKEND. BY
SUNDAY, LOW- LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE AS A WEAK
DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH, BRINGING A RETURN TO ISOLATED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL, WITH
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S EACH DAY.
RAIN AND STORM CHANCES INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER
FRONT APPROACHES THE CAROLINA'S MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. SEVERAL
WEAK DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED WITHIN ZONAL FLOW ARE EXPECTED TO
CROSS THE REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK AS WELL, SUPPORTING SCATTERED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS/STORMS EACH DAY. HIGHS WILL REMAIN
IN THE LOW TO MID- 90S FOR MOST OF THE WEEK.
LATE NEXT WEEK, A STRONGER UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO
BUILD OVER THE FOUR CORNERS, PROMOTING BROADER TROUGHING ACROSS
THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS PATTERN MAY SUPPORT A MORE ORGANIZED
WEATHER SYSTEM AFFECTING THE AREA, THOUGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW
REGARDING TIMING AND EVOLUTION.
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
A FRONT IS PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING AND WILL
STALL TO OUR SOUTH TODAY. WITH DRIER AIR OVER THE FORECAST AREA
WE SHOULD NOT SEE ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON. THE DRY LOW-LEVEL AIR WILL ALSO LIMIT FOG CHANCES,
SUPPORTING CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS. EXPECT NNE TO NE WINDS
FROM 5 TO 7 KTS TODAY BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR CALM AROUND
SUNSET.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION TO
RETURN SUNDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ISOLATED
SUNDAY BUT HIGHER COVERAGE CAN BE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ND
AVIATION...CJR
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