292
FXUS62 KCAE 130544
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
144 AM EDT THU AUG 13 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
HEAT ADVISORY ISSUED TODAY FROM NOON TO 8 PM. AVIATION
DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 06Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 8PM TODAY. ANOTHER
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED TOMORROW. HEAT INDICES BETWEEN 105-110F
EXPECTED EACH DAY.
- 2. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION POSSIBLE TODAY,
BEFORE RAIN CHANCES PICK UP LATE THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
- 1. HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 8PM TODAY. ANOTHER
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED TOMORROW. HEAT INDICES BETWEEN 105-110F
EXPECTED EACH DAY.
AS RIDGING SHIFTS FURTHER EAST TODAY AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY,
TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 90S BECOME MORE LIKELY WITH SURFACE
DEW POINTS MIXING OUT INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S. CONFIDENCE IN A
FEW SPOTS REACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA HAS INCREASED TODAY AND
AFTER COLLABORATING WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES, HAVE DECIDED TO
ISSUE A HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM TODAY. THE MAIN WRENCH
THAT COULD BE THROWN INTO THIS IS IF CONVECTION GETS GOING EARLY
AND COVERAGE IS GREATER THAN EXPECTED, BUT THE 00Z SUITE OF
GUIDANCE IS KEEPING COVERAGE FAIRLY LOW AND FAVORING THE LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING, GIVING A WINDOW WHERE
LOCATIONS COULD REACH OR RISE SLIGHTLY ABOVE 108F FOR HEAT
INDICES. WITH THE RIDGE MOVING OVERHEAD FRIDAY, GREATER
CONVECTIVE SUPPRESSION IS EXPECTED AND TEMPERATURES MAY NEAR
100F IN A FEW LOCATIONS, AS SHOWN IN RECENT MET, MAV, ECS, AND
NBM GUIDANCE. THIS IS LEADING TO HREF PROBABILITIES FOR MEETING
HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA BETWEEN 50-70%, THUS ANOTHER ADVISORY
COULD BE NEEDED WITH HEAT INDICES AGAIN TOPPING OUT NEAR
108-110F. INCREASED DIURNAL SHOWER/STORM CHANCES INTO THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK LIMIT CONFIDENCE IN THE NEED FOR
ADDITIONAL HEAT PRODUCTS, BUT EITHER WAY, ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
THE RIDGE LIKELY DOES NOT BECOME MORE FLATTENED OUT UNTIL AROUND
THE MID WEEK.
- 2. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION POSSIBLE TODAY,
BEFORE RAIN CHANCES PICK UP LATE THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL
EXIST THIS AFTERNOON AS THE REGION REMAINS IN A NORTHWEST FLOW
PATTERN, BUT THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WORK OVERHEAD
INTO FRIDAY. AS WITH YESTERDAY, THERE IS GENEROUS SPREAD ACROSS
CAM'S IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON, BUT THERE IS A BIT
MORE OF A CONSENSUS THAT AT LEAST A COUPLE STORMS COULD
DEVELOP, POSING A THREAT FOR STRONG TO DAMAGING DOWNBURST WIND
GUSTS AS SBCAPE VALUES NEAR 2500-3000 J/KG DEVELOP WITH DCAPE
VALUES ONCE AGAIN NEARING OR EXCEEDING 1000 J/KG. THE POTENTIAL
FOR GREATER COVERAGE AND INTENSITY IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION,
HOWEVER. THIS COMES AS OUTFLOW FROM CONVECTION MOVING OUT OF THE
MIDWEST AND INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC COULD SETTLE INTO THE REGION
AND/OR A CONVERGENT ZONE COULD ESTABLISH ITSELF IN THE CWA AS
SHOWN IN LATEST HRRR/RAP RUNS. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS
SCENARIO, BUT EVEN IF THIS SOLUTION IS REALIZED, THE MAIN RISK
WOULD CONTINUE TO BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE
THE LAST COUPLE EVENINGS/NIGHTS, WILL ONCE AGAIN NEED TO KEEP AN
EYE ON ANY UPSTREAM CONVECTION MOVING OUT OF THE MIDWEST AND
ITS EVOLUTION.
GLOBAL ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO FAVOR RIDGING SLOWLY FLATTENING
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH MORE CHANCES FOR SHORTWAVES AND/OR
WEAKENING MCS'S TO NEAR THE FA IN A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME.
PWAT'S SHOULD REMAIN NEAR 2" THROUGH THE LATE WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK AS WELL, SO CHANCES FOR RAIN ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY INTO
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS SOME INDICATION IN GLOBAL
MODELS THAT TROUGHING COULD BEGIN TO REPLACE THE RIDGE TOWARD
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, BUT HIGH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THIS.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH SOME SCATTERED
CONVECTION THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED ACROSS THE REGION WITH NO SHOWER-
STORM ACTIVITY EXPECTED UNTIL THURSDAY AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT,
ONLY SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED WITH CALM WINDS.
SOME BRIEF PERIODIC VSBY RESTRICTIONS TYPICAL AT AGS AND AIK ARE
POSSIBLE INTO THURSDAY MORNING, BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW FOR
ANY SORT OF TAF MENTION. TYPICAL SUMMER CU IS EXPECTED BY LATE
THURSDAY MORNING WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH FOR A PROB30
GROUP AT ALL SITES BUT THIS WILL REQUIRE SOME REFINEMENT IN
FUTURE TAFS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...DIURNAL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
SCZ016-018-020>022-025>031-035-037-038-041-115-116-
135>137.
GA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
GAZ040-063>065-077.
DISCUSSION...DH
AVIATION...42
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