418
FXUS62 KCAE 240005
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
805 PM EDT SUN AUG 23 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED 00Z AVIATION, OTHERWISE NO NOTABLE CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WITH AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
EACH DAY THIS WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WITH AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES EACH DAY INTO NEXT WEEK.
A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE
EASTERN AND SOUTHERN MIDLANDS THROUGH ABOUT 9PM OR SO. SOME
GUSTY WINDS, THANKS TO LINGERING INVERTED V PROFILES, AND BRIEF
HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE. QUICK DIURNAL COOLING AFTER SUNSET WITH
LARGE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL QUICKLY
STABILIZE THINGS AND MITIGATE ANY SEVERE THREAT.
GENERALLY QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF THE WEEK AS A RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE. RAIN
CHANCES SHOULD STAY LOW THROUGH TOMORROW, WITH ONLY ISOLATED
DIURNALLY DRIVEN THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY PART OF
THE WEEK. MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM MID TO LATE
WEEK, RESULTING IN A TREND TOWARD HIGHER AFTERNOON STORM
COVERAGE. LREF PROBABILITIES INDICATE A 50-70 PERCENT CHANCE OF
PWAT VALUES EXCEEDING 1.75 INCHES FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD. UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGHING WILL ALSO BEGIN TO SHIFT INTO THE REGION,
SUPPORTING INCREASING MOISTURE AND GREATER CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS. WEAK SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW SHOULD
ALSO PROVIDE ADDITIONAL FORCING FOR CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WARM AS THIS OVERALL PATTERN PERSISTS
INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH A FEW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR OGB-AIK THIS EVENING.
A FEW VERY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN
AND SOUTHERN MIDLANDS OF SC TONIGHT, AND WILL LAST THROUGH
ROUGHLY 01Z. INCLUDED A MENTION OF VCTS AT OGB BRIEFLY TO COVER
THIS. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH A FEW SCATTERED STORMS EXPECTED AGAIN MONDAY BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE. MONDAY MORNING COULD BRING SOME FOG AROUND SUNRISE,
BUT CROSSOVER TEMPS AND BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY
MITIGATE ANY POTENTIAL.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...ISOLATED STORMS EACH AFTERNOON WITH
HIGHER COVERAGE OF STORMS EXPECTED BY MIDWEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...
AVIATION...42
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