174
FXUS62 KCAE 291312
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
912 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
LIMITED CHANGES TO FORECAST KEY MESSAGES, FROST ADVISORY EXPIRED.
FIRE DANGER STATEMENT IN EFFECT FOR TODAY.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. NEAR CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS LIKELY TODAY.
- 2. TEMPERATURES WARM THROUGH THE WEEK WITH SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
RAIN ENTERING THE FORECAST.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: NEAR CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS LIKELY TODAY.
HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE REGION SHIFTS OFFSHORE THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS INTO THE DAY SUNDAY. AS IT DOES, WINDS SHIFT TO
MORE EASTERLY, BUT ARE EXPECTED TO BE WEAKER THAN SATURDAY DUE TO A
SLACKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. HOWEVER, WINDS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO
TOP OUT AROUND 10-15 MPH WITH A FEW GUSTS AROUND 20 MPH. WITH THE
WINDS SHIFTING TO THE EAST, SOME MOISTURE RECOVERY IS EXPECTED BUT
STILL REMAIN NEAR CRITICAL LEVELS. THE LOWEST RH VALUES ARE FORECAST
TO BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR. IN ADDITION, FUELS REMAIN
INCREDIBLY DRY. AS A RESULT, WE HAVE A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT IN
PLACE FOR THE DAY.
AS A REMINDER, IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE FIRE DANGER STATEMENT FOR
TODAY, SC AND GA HAVE BURN BANS IN EFFECT UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.
KEY MESSAGE 2: TEMPERATURES WARM THROUGH THE WEEK WITH SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR RAIN ENTERING THE FORECAST.
AFTER THIS MORNING, BROAD RIDGING TO OUR WEST BEGINS TO MOVE
OVER THE AREA, EVENTUALLY GETTING TO THE 90-97.5TH PERCENTILE
LATER THIS WEEK LEADING TO WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
WEEK. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE CENTER OF THIS RIDGE SLIDES OFFSHORE
BY MIDWEEK. MEANWHILE, THE SURFACE HIGH OVER US IS ALSO
FORECAST TO MOVE OFFSHORE. AS A RESULT, OVERALL FLOW TRANSITIONS
TO SOUTHWESTERLY, ALLOWING FOR AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE TO THE
AREA. PWAT VALUES BEGIN INCREASING TO ABOUT 150% OF NORMAL LATER
THIS WEEK. WITH THE MOISTURE IN PLACE AND WARM TEMPERATURES,
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME DIURNAL SHOWERS OR STORMS ARRIVES AROUND
MIDWEEK.
AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL PUSH OFFSHORE THROUGH THE
DAYTIME HOURS. A FEW CLOUDS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP AROUND 4-5KFT
THIS MORNING ACROSS THE CSRA NEAR AGS/DNL AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO
RETURN INLAND FROM THE COAST. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED VFR CLOUDS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE MORNING AT ALL SITES AS
THIS MOISTURE MOVES INLAND FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL
MIDLANDS. SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME MORE EASTERLY THIS MORNING,
THEN TURNING SOUTHEAST BY LATER IN THE DAY TODAY. SPEEDS
LIGHTER THAN PREVIOUS FEW DAYS, GENERALLY BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KNOTS
THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS, THEN LIGHTER OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST
AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT. WITH DRY LOW-LEVELS AND AT LEAST SOME
LIGHT WINDS THROUGH SUNRISE THIS MORNING, FOG SHOULD NOT BE AN
ISSUE.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK, THEN RAIN CHANCES RAMP UP BY MID WEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...29
AVIATION...CAL
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