980
FXUS62 KCAE 182350
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
750 PM EDT TUE AUG 18 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL FORECAST. AVIATION DISCUSSION
UPDATED FOR 00Z.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK.
- 2. STORM COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED AGAIN TODAY, WITH INCREASING
POTENTIAL LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE SIMILAR EACH DAY THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK WITH THE INTERQUARTILE RANGE OF BLENDED GUIDANCE
SHOWING LIMITED SPREAD LEADING TO RELATIVELY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S EACH DAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK
FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA TODAY WILL DO LITTLE TO AFFECT
TEMPERATURES BUT WILL PUSH IN SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR, ALLOWING
FOR INCREASED DRIER AIR MIXING TO THE SURFACE. DEW POINTS AS A
RESULT WILL LIKELY DIP TO OR BELOW 70F DURING THE AFTERNOON
TODAY, TOMORROW AND THURSDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY STILL LEAD TO
HEAT INDICES BETWEEN 100F TO 105F, ALTHOUGH KEEP US BELOW HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA. MOISTURE INCREASES FRIDAY AS THE RIDGE BEGINS
TO BREAK DOWN. A DECREASE IN TEMPERATURES WOULD BE OFFSET BY
THE MOISTURE INCREASE, ALTHOUGH HIGHER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL ALSO LIMIT TEMPERATURES. MORE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS
EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND, FINALLY PROVIDING US A BREAK FROM THE
OPPRESSIVE HEAT.
KEY MESSAGE 2: STORM COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED AGAIN TODAY, WITH
INCREASING POTENTIAL LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY, FAVORING THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA
WHERE MOISTURE WILL BE HIGHEST AND THE SEA BREEZE AND STALLED WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE SOME FORCING. AS THE UPPER RIDGE
BREAKS DOWN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS
EXPECTED.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
A VERY WEAK BOUNDAY HAS PUSH THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON,
USHERING A SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS THAN THE COMPLETELY OPPRESSIVE
ONE THAT WE HAVE HAD IN PLACE FOR SEVERAL WEEKS NOW. FAIR
WEATHER CUMULUS DOTTED THE SKIES TODAY AND IS NOW DIMINISHING.
WITH BELOW NORMAL PWS AND LIGHT LOW-LEVEL WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH
00Z TOMORROW, WENT WITH ONE-LINE TAF FORECASTS FOR THIS PACKAGE.
VERY LITTLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED AND ONLY A FEW, VFR CLOUDS ARE
FORECAST TOMORROW.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...DIURNAL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEK, PEAKING THIS WEEKEND.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...73/96
AVIATION...PL
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page