222
FXUS62 KCAE 081724
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
124 PM EDT MON JUN 8 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MINIMAL CHANGE TO KEY MESSAGES. AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR
18Z TAF.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. A TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN EXPECTED THIS WEEK WITH INCREASING
MOISTURE AND WARMING TEMPERATURES DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK
PERIOD.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: A TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN EXPECTED THIS WEEK WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE AND WARMING TEMPERATURES DURING THE MID TO
LATE WEEK PERIOD.
FOR TODAY AND TUESDAY, THE SURFACE RIDGING WILL SHIFT FAR
ENOUGH EAST TO ALLOW DEEPER MOISTURE TO PUSH INTO THE AREA. FOR
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, THE PRIMARY PLUME OF 1.75"+ PWATS
WILL STAY MOSTLY ACROSS GEORGIA. MODELED SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT
A STOUT CAPPING INVERSION WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE CHANCES ACROSS
MUCH OF THE MIDLANDS, SO POPS HAVE BEEN LOWERED THERE, AND MANY
LOCATIONS IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA ARE LIKELY TO
REMAIN DRY. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS ALSO PASSING THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA, FURTHER LIMITING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN
OUR EASTERN FA. HAVING SAID THAT, SHOWERS ARE STARTING TO
DEVELOP IN THE CSRA AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THERE THROUGH THIS EVENING THOUGH
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.
THE PLUME OF HIGHER PWAT'S SHIFTS EAST BY TUESDAY AND YIELDS
HIGHER RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. SCATTERED DAYTIME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE THEN EXPECTED EACH DAY THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK WITH A FAIRLY TYPICALLY SUMMER PATTERN IN
PLACE. WITH THE RIDGE IN OUR VICINITY, SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS
UNLIKELY. WHILE PWAT'S SHOULD CLIMB ABOVE 1.75", QPF TOTALS
ACROSS ALL GUIDANCE IS GENERALLY ONLY 0.25-0.75" WITH SOME
ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS IN AREAS THAT SEE REPEATED ROUNDS OF
THUNDERSTORMS. THE COMBINATION OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY COULD RESULT
IN OUR FIRST DAYS OF HEAT INDEX VALUES AT OR ABOVE 100 DEGREES
ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, THOUGH STILL BELOW HEAT PRODUCT
CRITERIA.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON WITH MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. BRIEF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
LIGHT SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS BETWEEN 3-5 KTS ARE
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH A SHALLOW CUMULUS FIELD.
THERE HAVE ALREADY BEEN A COUPLE SHOWERS NEAR AGS/DNL BUT THESE
HAVE BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY AND HAVE COLLAPSED QUICKLY. THE
REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON COULD SEE A COUPLE MORE ISOLATED
SHOWERS OR STORMS, FAVORING AGS/DNL, THOUGH EVEN HERE CONFIDENCE
IN IMPACTS IS LOW. ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY DIMINISHES THIS EVENING
WITH LINGERING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE TO CALM. THIS CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD, BUT THERE IS SOME INDICATION IN
LAMP AND HREF GUIDANCE THAT ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COULD
BRING BRIEF PERIODS OF FOG AND/OR STRATUS IF ANY CLEARING
OCCURS. CONFIDENCE IN RESTRICTIONS DEVELOPING IS LOW, BUT AT
THIS TIME FOG PRONE AGS SEEMS THE MOST LIKELY TO HAVE AT LEAST
PERIODIC MVFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. A CUMULUS
DECK SHOULD DEVELOP THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS PICKING UP TO AROUND 5-7 KTS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD BE POSSIBLE JUST AFTER THIS
TAF PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...DEEPER MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE
THROUGH THE WEEK LEADING TO SCATTERED, MAINLY DIURNAL, SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...7
AVIATION...DH
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