263  
FXUS62 KCAE 110721  
AFDCAE  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC  
321 AM EDT FRI OCT 11 2024  
   
SYNOPSIS  
 
HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS THE FORECAST AREA COOL AND DRY THROUGH  
FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND THROUGH MONDAY. THE PASSAGE  
OF A COLD FRONT ON MONDAY WILL USHER IN THE COLDEST AIR MASS OF  
THE SEASON THUS FAR WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURNING.  
 
 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/  
 
KEY MESSAGES:  
 
- DRY HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION WITH  
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED  
 
HIGH PRESSURE IS ALREADY RIDGING INTO THE REGION, CREATING NICE  
AND COOL CONDITIONS AS THIS IS WRITTEN. MOST SPOTS ARE IN THE  
LOW 50S BUT OUR COOLER AREAS ARE DIPPING INTO THE UPPER 40S. THE  
MAJORITY OF THE AREA SHOULD DIP BETWEEN 45F AND 50F AS WE GET  
TOWARDS DAWN. SOME LIGHT WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION AS A  
25 KNOT LOW-LEVEL JET IS IN PLACE AROUND 1000 FEET, SO THAT WILL  
LIMIT THE EXTENT OF COOLING TONIGHT. STILL, IT'LL BE QUITE CRISP  
OUT THERE AS YOU HEAD OUT THE DOOR THIS MORNING. LOOKING AHEAD  
INTO THE DAY, STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN  
ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION AS GENERAL TROUGHING WORKS ITS WAY  
EASTWARD. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN THE SURFACE HIGH CONTINUING TO  
BUILD SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT. THE RESULT  
OF ALL OF THIS IS EXTREMELY NICE WEATHER. SURFACE WINDS WILL  
REMAIN AROUND 8-15 MPH THROUGH THE DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW OR  
MID 70S EVERYWHERE. TONIGHT, EXPECT OUR FIRST REAL FALL CHILL TO  
ARRIVE. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SET UP DIRECTLY OVER THE FORECAST  
AREA, WITH WINDS IN THE LOWER PORTION OF THE ATMOSPHERE EXPECTED  
TO BE NEARLY CALM. GIVEN THE EXTENT OF THE DRY AIR (DEWPOINTS  
SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOW 40S THIS AFTERNOON) IN PLACE, IDEAL  
CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT. SO LOOK  
FOR LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S!  
 
 
   
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/  
 
KEY MESSAGE(S):  
 
- DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH WARMING DAYTIME  
TEMPERATURES AND COOL NIGHTS.  
 
DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL BE AMPLIFYING IN THE EASTERN CONUS BY  
LATE SUNDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT TOWARD THE  
REGION. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST  
AND THIS WILL LEAD TO MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES OVER THE  
WEEKEND. THE AIR MASS WILL BE QUITE DRY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER  
ABOUT 55-60% OF NORMAL. HIGHS IN THE 70S SATURDAY WILL RISE INTO  
THE LOW 80S SUNDAY. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE  
A LITTLE WARMER DUE TO INCREASING WIND IN THE BOUNDARY  
LAYER/MODERATING AIR MASS, BUT STILL COOL, UPPER 40S OVER MUCH  
OF THE AREA. LOW TEMPERATURES WARM A BIT SUNDAY NIGHT CLOSER TO  
60 DEGREES AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT DUE TO A 30-40 KT LOW LEVEL  
JET AFTER 06Z.  
 
 
   
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/  
 
KEY MESSAGE(S):  
 
- A DRY COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH ON MONDAY.  
- A MUCH COLDER AIR MASS FOLLOWS BEHIND THE BOUNDARY WITH WELL  
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD.  
 
THE ENSEMBLES ARE CONSISTENT WITH DEVELOPING AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP  
UPPER TROUGH IN THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH MIDWEEK THEN MOVES  
EAST. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY  
AFTERNOON AND USHER IN MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA.  
COLD ADVECTION APPEARS TO MAXIMIZE RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT THEN  
CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. WINDS EXPECTED TO BE GUSTY WITH THE  
FRONTAL PASSAGE. A DRY COLD AIR MASS WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA  
THROUGH LATE WEEK. HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR TEMPERATURES TO BE ABOUT  
10 DEGREES COOLER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/  
 
DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.  
 
SKIES ARE CLEAR AND WINDS ARE LIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES  
TO BUILD INTO THE REGION. THERE IS VERY LITTLE TO SAY OTHERWISE  
AS THIS GENERAL THEME WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.  
WE'LL SEE WINDS PICK UP AGAIN AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING AND  
FALL TO NEAR CALM AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN  
SUNNY.  
 
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE ON MONDAY MAY  
BRING A WIND SHIFT BUT OTHERWISE, NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO  
AVIATION EXPECTED.  
 
 
   
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
SC...NONE.  
GA...NONE.  
 
 
 
 
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