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FXUS62 KCAE 140523
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
123 AM EDT FRI AUG 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 8PM FRIDAY EVENING. IT
REMAINS UNCLEAR IF HEAT PRODUCTS WILL BE NEEDED THIS WEEKEND.
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 06Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 8PM FRIDAY
EVENING WITH HEAT INDICES BETWEEN 105-110F EXPECTED.
- 2. RAIN CHANCES ARE LOWER TODAY BUT INCREASE AGAIN THIS
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
- 1. A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 8PM FRIDAY
EVENING WITH HEAT INDICES BETWEEN 105-110F EXPECTED.
THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS CENTERED TO THE WEST IS EXPECTED TO BE
STRONGEST TODAY, BREAKING DOWN AND FLATTENING THIS WEEKEND. THIS
SHOULD LIMIT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TODAY AND RESULT IN WARMER
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES. THE COMBINATION OF HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 90S AND HIGH DEWPOINTS SHOULD RESULT IN PEAK HEAT INDEX
VALUES BETWEEN 105 AND 110 TODAY. A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT UNTIL 8PM THIS EVENING. WITH THE WEAKENING RIDGE, IT REMAINS
UNCLEAR IF THE ADVISORY WILL BE EXTENDED AGAIN FOR SATURDAY.
THE LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS ANOTHER DAY OF HEAT INDEX VALUES NEAR
CRITERIA AND ANY EXTENSION WILL LIKELY BE COORDINATED LATER
TODAY WHEN THE LATEST GUIDANCE COMES IN.
- 2. RAIN CHANCES ARE LOWER TODAY BUT INCREASE AGAIN THIS
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
AS MENTIONED, THE RIDGE SHOULD RESULT IN DECREASED CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE FA TODAY, WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES
CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED IN THE CSRA. HAVING SAID THAT, THE
ATMOSPHERE REMAINS VERY MOIST THEREFORE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT ANYWHERE TODAY.
AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS THIS WEEKEND, A MORE TYPICAL AUGUST
PATTERN SHOULD RETURN WITH DAILY CONVECTIVE CHANCES. WITH HIGH
PWATS EXPECTED AND AN INVERTED-V IN MODELED SOUNDINGS, ANY
ROBUST THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING AND
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THERE IS ALSO A SIGNAL THAT A TROUGH COULD
DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN CONUS TOWARDS THE MIDDLE PORTION OF
NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN A WETTER PATTERN AND NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY OUTSIDE OF SCATTERED CONVECTION FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
CALM CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH ONLY SOME MID-LEVEL
CLOUD COVER LINGERING FROM EARLIER CONVECTION. SOME NEAR SUNRISE
STRATUS-FOG IS POSSIBLE, BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR
ANY TAF MENTIONS AT THIS TIME; AGS AND AIK MAY HAVE THEIR
TYPICAL MIFG ISSUES THIS MORNING. FOR THE REST OF FRIDAY, A
TYPICAL SUMMER DAY IS EXPECTED WITH CU AROUND 5K FEET DEVELOPING
AND LATE AFTERNOON & EVENING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. PROB30
GROUP INCLUDED FOR ALL TAF SITES FOR TSRA THIS AFTERNOON-
EVENING. WINDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY WILL BE WEST-SOUTHWEST, WITH
SOME GUSTS PERIODICALLY UP TO 10 KNOTS OUTSIDE OF ANY
CONVECTION.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...DIURNAL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ016-018-
020>022-025>031-035-037-038-041-115-116-135>137.
GA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GAZ040-063>065-
077.
DISCUSSION...7
AVIATION...42
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