143
FXUS62 KCAE 140118
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
917 PM EDT SUN SEP 13 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED KEY MESSAGE 1 TO REMOVE MENTION OF TODAY, AND
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 00Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY, WITH A BACKDOOR
FRONT USHERING IN DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY, WITH
A BACKDOOR FRONT USHERING IN DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE FORECAST THINKING AS RIDGING WILL STEADILY
BUILD INTO MONDAY. THE PATTERN WILL THEN STEADILY AMPLIFY AS
PERSISTENT TROUGHING ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS WILL YIELD STRONG
DOWNSTREAM HEIGHT RISES ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS, RESULTING IN
ONE OF THE STRONGER 500 HPA RIDGES ON RECORD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
BASED ON THE NAEFS CLIMO. WHILE THIS WOULD TYPICALLY SUGGEST
POTENTIALLY RECORD HIGH TEMPS, A STOUT SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO
ROUND THE RIDGE INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS MONDAY, WITH ASSOCIATED
STRONG CONVERGENCE. THIS CONVERGENCE IS FORECAST TO USHER IN A
STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM INTO THE NORTHEAST, DRIVING
RIDGING LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS THROUGH MID-WEEK. AS THIS RIDGING
DIGS SOUTHWARD IT WILL MANIFEST AS BACKDOOR SURFACE FRONT WITH SOME
DENSER, COOLER & DRIER AIR PUSHING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST AND
BRINGING NEAR NORMAL HIGHS & BELOW NORMAL DEWPOINTS AND PWS BY
TUESDAY. AHEAD OF THIS BACKDOOR FRONT HOWEVER, MONDAY WILL BE QUITE
WARM, WITH HIGHS FORECAST IN THE MID 90S. BUT TUESDAY-THURSDAY
SHOULD FEATURE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S, DEWPOINTS IN THE
LOW 60S DURING THE AFTERNOONS OR UPPER 50'S, AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE MID 60S. SOUTHERLY COMPONENT FLOW AND BROAD SCALE MOISTURE
RETURNS BY LATE WEEK WITH INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES ALONG WITH IT.
AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO
CALM WINDS. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO PUSH IN, BRINGING
LOWER CHANCES FOR MORNING RESTRICTIONS. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW
PATCHES OF FOG OR STRATUS EARLY MONDAY MORNING MAINLY IN PORTIONS OF
THE CSRA AND SOUTHEASTERN MIDLANDS, BUT CONFIDENCE IN IMPACTS TO THE
TAF SITES IS FAIRLY LOW. WINDS MONDAY MORNING SHIFT A BIT MORE
NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY AROUND 4-8 KTS, AND VFR CONDITIONS
ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RAIN UNLIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK
BUT THERE WILL STILL BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR EARLY MORNING
FOG/STRATUS PERSISTS AT LEAST THROUGH TUESDAY.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION...EC/DH
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