418
FXUS62 KCAE 240634
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
234 AM EDT TUE MAR 24 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ELEVATED FIRE CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY. MODELS HAVE
TRENDED TOWARD DRIER WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE A FRONT
BRINGS BACK SLIGHT CHANCE POP'S LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 06Z TAF.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TODAY BEHIND YESTERDAY'S
FRONT.
- 2. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE LATE WEEK BEFORE
TEMPERATURES FALL CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH A BACKDOOR FRONT
MOVING IN LATE FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TODAY BEHIND
YESTERDAY'S FRONT.
INCREASED FIRE DANGER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AS A
DRY AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE BEHIND YESTERDAY'S FRONT.
DEWPOINTS HAVE FALLEN BETWEEN 20-30 DEGREES IN THE PAST 4-6
HOURS AND RH VALUES AS OF WRITING THIS REMAIN BETWEEN 25-30%
WITH NORTHEASTERLY WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 MPH. HEADING INTO THE
REMAINDER OF THE MORNING, THESE GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
BEFORE WEAKENING SOME THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE
GRADIENT WEAKENS SOME. PERSISTENT NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW AND SOLID MIXING THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD YIELD RH VALUES
BETWEEN 20-25% AND WITH THE ANTECEDENT DRY CONDITIONS/FUELS,
THIS YIELDS ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TODAY. DUE TO THIS, A
FIRE DANGER STATEMENT WILL BE IN EFFECT STARTING AT NOON,
CONTINUING INTO THIS EVENING.
KEY MESSAGE 2: A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE LATE
WEEK BEFORE TEMPERATURES FALL CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH A BACKDOOR
FRONT MOVING IN LATE FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES TODAY LOOK TO BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL, IN THE LOW TO
MID 60S AS COOL/DRY NORTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES BEHIND
MONDAY'S COLD FRONT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC. AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND THE ROBUST
UPPER RIDGE NEAR THE WESTERN CONUS BEGINS SHIFTING A BIT
EASTWARD, TEMPERATURES WARM CLOSER TO NORMAL WEDNESDAY, IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S(THOUGH THIS IS STILL 2-5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL).
WHILE A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM CANNOT FULLY BE RULED OUT TODAY
OR WEDNESDAY WITH THE FRONT LINGERING SOUTH OF THE FA, RECENT
CAM RUNS HAVE TRENDED DRIER WITH PWAT'S UNDER 0.75" MUCH OF
TUESDAY BEFORE REBOUNDING CLOSER TO 1" LATE WEDNESDAY.
FOR THE LATE WEEK PERIOD, THERE IS SOLID MODEL AND ENSEMBLE
CONSENSUS ON WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY AS STRONG 500
MB HEIGHT RISES ON THE ORDER OF 2-4 DM/12 HOUR MOVE INTO THE
REGION WITH THE UPPER RIDGE OUT WEST MOVING IN. THIS SHOULD
BRING 850MB TEMPERATURES NEAR THE NAEFS 97.5 PERCENTILE THURSDAY
BEFORE TOPPING OUT NEAR THE 99TH PERCENTILE ON FRIDAY AS LOW
LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BECOMES FAIRLY PERSISTENT. THIS STRONG
RIDGE SHOULD AID IN BRINGING TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S THURSDAY BEFORE RAMPING UP TO THE MID TO UPPER
80S ON FRIDAY. ON FRIDAY, A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE IN AND THERE IS DECENT AGREEMENT AT THIS STAGE ACROSS LREF
CLUSTERS AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE THAT THIS FRONT SHOULD NOT MOVE
IN UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY. DECENT MOISTURE ADVECTION IS EXPECTED
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH PWAT'S REACHING NEAR 1-1.25" SO ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A STORM OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT LATE
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING. BEHIND THIS FRONT, GLOBAL MODELS
DEPICT A STRONG SURFACE HIGH MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST,
BRINGING COOLER/DRIER AIR. TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND AND
INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR TO JUST
BELOW NORMAL WITH DRY WEATHER.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR BUT BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE 24HR FORECAST
PERIOD.
STRONG COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE EARLIER FRONT IS KEEPING WINDS
UP OVERNIGHT AROUND 10 KNOTS AND GUSTING TO 20 KNOTS. SOME
PASSING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL PERSIST WITH THICKER HIGHER
CLOUDS MOVING OVER THE REGION LATER THIS MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH
AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. GUSTY WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO THE
LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING A BIT AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. NORTHEASTERLY WIND DIRECTION SHOULD
PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD THOUGH TURNING A BIT
MORE EASTERLY THIS AFTERNOON. AIR MASS REMAINS TOO DRY AND
MIXED FOR ANY FOG CONCERNS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR
MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DH
AVIATION...HC
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page