291
FXUS62 KCAE 070134
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
934 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
LESS CONVECTIVE COVERAGE POSSIBLE DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK.
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 00Z TAFS AND TO ADD MENTION OF
POSSIBLE PATCHY FOG AT SOME TERMINALS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. HOT CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA, WITH CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: HOT CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA, WITH
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
ACTIVE AFTERNOON SO FAR, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COLUMBIA METRO AND
LAKE MURRAY. NEARLY 2500 J/KG OF MLCAPE HAS DEVELOPED IN THE
MOIST AIRMASS WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. THIS
LED TO ROBUST INITIATION OVER LAKE MURRAY BEFORE ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT HAS CONTINUED ALONG THE OUTFLOW FROM THESE INITIAL
STORMS WITH SOME BACK- BUILDING INTO LEXINGTON COUNTY. PWAT'S
ARE NEAR 2.0" AT THE MOMENT AND WITH STORM MOTIONS BEING SLOWLY
TOWARD THE E/ENE, TRAINING STORMS COULD BRING AN ISOLATED FLASH
FLOOD RISK OVER THE COMING HOURS. WITH THE INFLUX OF MOISTURE
THIS AFTERNOON, DCAPE VALUES ARE A BIT LESS THAN YESTERDAY BUT
THE MAIN HAZARD IN ANY STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORM WILL BE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS FROM PRECIP- LOADED DOWNBURSTS. DUE TO
THIS, MAJORITY OF THE CWA IS IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER (LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5) THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING.
HEADING INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK, THIS REPETITIVE PATTERN
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN DUE TO
THE TROUGH IN THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IMPINGING ON IT. THIS
WILL ALLOW SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO ADVECT A COUPLE WEAK SHORTWAVES
INTO THE AREA ALONG WITH MAINTAINING PWAT'S NEAR 2", ESPECIALLY
THROUGH TUESDAY. OVERALL, THIS IS EXPECTED TO BRING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION EACH DAY THIS WEEK WHERE STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THIS COMES AS MEAN
HREF MUCAPE VALUES EXCEED 2000 J/KG TUESDAY WITH FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUPPORTING THIS LATER INTO THE WEEK AS WELL. IT IS
WORTH NOTING THAT THE LATEST BLEND HAS TRENDED A BIT DRIER
WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY, LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO WEAK HEIGHT RISES, BUT
AT LEAST ISOLATED CONVECTION STILL SEEMS POSSIBLE ON THESE DAYS.
AS HAS BEEN DISCUSSED THE LAST 4-5 DAYS PROLONGED HEAT IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS WEEK. TEMPERATURES MAY END UP A BIT
CLOSER TO NORMAL TUESDAY, BUT DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S
SHOULD BRING HEAT INDICES AS HIGH AS 105F. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW 850MB TEMPERATURES THAT REMAIN NEAR 20-22C THE
REST OF THE WEEK AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SLIGHTLY LESS STORM
COVERAGE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY COULD BRING MAX TEMPERATURES
BACK TO THE UPPER 90S. THESE DAYS COULD BE WHEN HEAT INDICES
APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA WITH DEWPOINTS LIKELY REMAINING
TOWARD THE LOWER 70S SO THIS POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED. REGARDLESS, IF YOU MUST BE OUT IN THE HEAT FOR
PROLONGED PERIODS OF TIME, ENSURE THAT YOU HYDRATE PROPERLY AND
TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS TO AVOID HEAT RELATED ILLNESSES.
AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS ONCE AGAIN POSSIBLE IN AFTERNOON TSRA/SHRA.
DIURNALLY DRIVEN THUNDERSTORMS, ENHANCED FROM PREVIOUS OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES, COULD IMPACT MAINLY THE SC TERMINALS INTO LATE
EVENING. TAFS FOR OGB, CAE, CUB AND AIK ALL INCLUDE A TEMPO
GROUP THROUGH ABOUT 03Z FOR GUSTY/ERRATIC WINDS, AND POTENTIAL
CEILINGS/VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS DUE TO THE PULSE CONVECTION.
THESE STORMS SHOULD GENERALLY BE ON A DOWNWARD TREND LATER THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE RAINFALL AT SOME TERMINALS, HIGH DEW
POINT VALUES AND LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS, PATCHY FOG COULD BE A
POSSIBILITY TOWARD DAYBREAK AND ADDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR IFR
CONDITIONS AT OGB AND MVFR CONDITIONS AT CAE/CUB.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE UPWARDS OF ABOUT 10KT BY MID-
MORNING TUESDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION IS
THEN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY MIDDAY TUESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. HAVE INCLUDED A PROB30 GROUP FOR THUNDERSTORMS
AT ALL TERMINALS AS A RESULT.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...DAILY RAIN CHANCES AND POSSIBLE
RESTRICTIONS CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DH
AVIATION...JAQ
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