399
FXUS62 KCAE 030009
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
809 PM EDT THU APR 2 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MINIMAL CHANGE TO OUTLOOK OTHER THAN DIURNAL SHOWER/STORM
COVERAGE TRENDING A BIT LOWER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR THE 00Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. SHOWER AND T-STORM CHANCES INCREASE FRIDAY TO SUNDAY.
- 2. POTENTIAL FOR INCREASED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: SHOWER AND T-STORM CHANCES INCREASE FRIDAY TO
SUNDAY.
MINIMAL CHANGE TO THE OUTLOOK FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD, LEADING TO PWAT'S THAT
RAISE TO 1.10-1.30" AS SOUTHEASTERLY MOISTURE TRANSPORT RAMPS
UP. DESPITE UPPER SUBSIDENCE WEAKENING, FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM
RECENT CAM'S CONTINUE TO INDICATE A WEAK MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION LINGERING, CAPPING MUCAPE VALUES TO UNDER 1000 J/KG
EACH AFTERNOON, POSSIBLY LESS THAN 500 J/KG. DUE TO THIS
LINGERING INVERSION, SHOWER/WEAK STORM COVERAGE EACH AFTERNOON
MAY END UP BEING A BIT MORE ISOLATED THAN SUGGESTED BY THE
LATEST NBM RUN. EITHER WAY, THE RISK FOR ANY SEVERE STORMS
REMAINS LOW.
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL LIFT INTO THE EASTERN US ON SUNDAY. THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL WORK INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATE
SUNDAY WITH A SCATTERED LINE OF CONVECTION PRECEDING IT. THIS
SET UP WITH THE STRONGER DYNAMICS LIFTING TO THE NORTH AND WEAK
LOW LEVEL FLOW PARALLEL TO THE FRONT DOES NOT FAVOR WIDESPREAD
STEADY RAINFALL. IN FACT, THIS PATTERN ALONG WITH WESTERLY MID-
LEVEL WINDS OFTEN LEADS TO A DRIER FRONTAL PASSAGE AND LOWER
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE/QPF THAN MODELS SUGGEST. THE MEDIAN QPF
AMOUNT FROM THE NBM REMAINS AROUND 0.2 INCHES OR LOWER. HOWEVER
GIVEN THE EXPECTED SCATTERED, CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE SHOWERS
WE MAY SEE SOME LOCALIZED AMOUNTS ABOVE 0.25 OR 0.5 OF AN INCH
BUT MUCH OF THE AREA COULD GET VERY LITTLE RAINFALL.
KEY MESSAGE 2: POTENTIAL FOR INCREASED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
NEXT WEEK.
DEPENDING ON THE RAINFALL OUTLOOK OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WE MAY
SEE AN INCREASED FIRE WEATHER RISK NEXT WEEK. AFTERNOON RH
VALUES SHOULD FALL BELOW 30 PERCENT FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF
OF THE WEEK AS DRY AIR SETTLES INTO THE REGION. A DRY FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE SOUTHEAST MID-WEEK WHICH WOULD BRING
GUSTY WINDS.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE 24HR FORECAST
PERIOD.
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN WITH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN PLACE AND PERSISTENT SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS.
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH PREDAWN RESTRICTIONS THE
PAST COUPLE OF DAYS BUT IS CONTINUING TO HIGHLIGHT MORNING
STRATUS ALL TERMINALS WITH STRONG SUPPORT FROM THE SREF. ALL
GUIDANCE SOURCES ARE SHOWING CIG RESTRICTIONS WITH CIGS BELOW
2KFT GENERALLY 09Z-15Z TIME FRAME. A LITTLE CONCERNED SINCE IT
HAS NOT HAPPENED THE PAST FEW NIGHTS BUT SIGNAL IS STRONGER FOR
TONIGHT IN MOST GUIDANCE SO WILL CARRY PREVAILING MVFR
RESTRICTIONS CAE/CUB/OGB WITH TEMPO TO IFR CIGS WHILE KEEPING
VFR CIGS AT AGS/DNL AND TEMPO TO RESTRICTIONS. WINDS WILL STAY
UP THROUGH AROUND 06Z OR SO WITH A 20 TO 25 KT LOW LEVEL JET BUT
THEY MAY DROP OFF NEAR SUNRISE BEFORE PICKING BACK UP FROM THE
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AFTER 15Z. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SOME MORNING STRATUS IS POSSIBLE
INTO THE WEEKEND WITH INCREASED MOISTURE IN PLACE. BETTER
CHANCES FOR DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE WEEKEND AND SUNDAY
WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DH/CJR
AVIATION...23
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