799
FXUS62 KCAE 270555
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1255 AM EST SAT DEC 27 2025
SYNOPSIS
DRY WEATHER AND WARM CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY. ANOTHER WEAK
FRONT MAY BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS SUNDAY, BUT WITH MORE
DRY WEATHER. THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK
BRINGS MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS TO CLOSE OUT THE YEAR, THOUGH THE
CHANCE OF RAIN DURING THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS IS RELATIVELY LOW.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH OVER THE REGION WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOW TO MID 50S AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES GENERALLY ABOVE 75%. SOME
PATCHY FOG REMAINS POSSIBLE ON AND OFF THIS MORNING AS TEMPERATURES
DROP GIVEN SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS. OTHERWISE, FOR THE REST OF
TODAY, STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BACK OVER THE AREA WITH THE AXIS
SHIFTING EASTWARD. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA FROM
THE SOUTH, WHICH SHOULD PUSH A LINGERING FRONT AWAY FROM THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP THIS AFTERNOON TO NEAR RECORD HIGHS,
GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. THE RECORD
HIGH AT BOTH CAE AND AGS TODAY IS 77 DEGREES, WELL WITHIN REACH
GIVEN WARM DOWNSLOPING. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT WILL DROP TEMPS A BIT SUNDAY.
- STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON, GUSTY WINDS BUT
LOW PRECIP CHANCES.
MUCH LIKE FRIDAY, A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING QUICKLY THROUGH THE RIDGE
AXIS WILL DRIVE A SUBTLE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THROUGH THE MID-
ATLANTIC. THIS WILL PUSH A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT DOWN INTO THE AREA,
MUCH LIKE WE SAW ON FRIDAY. COMBINE THIS WITH SOME ENHANCED CLOUD
COVER, WE WILL SEE ANOTHER NOTABLE TEMP GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA
WITH THE CSRA STILL REMAINING IN THE 70'S AND THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS
IN THE 50'S.
THE STRONG EJECTING PACIFIC TROUGH WILL QUICKLY PUSH EASTWARD AS WE
MOVE INTO SUNDAY, DEVELOPING A VERY STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
THE GREAT LAKES. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT WILL THEN DIVE ACROSS
THE SOUTHEASTERN US LATE MONDAY. WHILE THE COLD ADVECTION AND WIND
FIELD IS QUITE STRONG, THE OVERALL LACK OF MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
MEANS THIS WILL BE A MOSTLY DRY FRONT; PWAT'S BARELY CLIMB ABOVE
1.0". SO BESIDES A FEW SHOWERS, THE WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN
FEATURE WITH GUSTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST EARLY MONDAY OVER 30 MPH,
THEN TURNING WESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE EVENING WITH SOME
GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH. HIGH TEMPS MONDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL
LIKELY TOP OUT IN THE 70'S THANKS TO THE STRENGTHENING
SOUTHWEST FLOW, BEFORE THE STRONG COLD ADVECTION OF 3-6 C/HR
DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT. LOW TEMPS TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE THE
COLDEST IN AWHILE AS A RESULT WITH TEMPS IN THE 20'S.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD BUT
OTHERWISE CALM WEATHER.
TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN US WILL DOMINATE THE LONG TERM PERIOD
NEXT WEEK WITH DAYTIME HIGHS RUNNING 10-15 F BELOW AVERAGE.
OVERNIGHT LOWS HOWEVER WILL NOT BE AS ANOMALOUSLY COLD DUE TO
ELEVATED WINDS WITH NO IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHTS.
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL DOMINATE, KEEPING PWAT'S BELOW 0.5"
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AND THEREFORE NO NOTABLE RAIN CHANCES
EXPECTED.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS LINGERING OVER THE AREA AND MAY ALLOW FOR
SOME PRE-DAWN FOG/STRATUS CONCERNS. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN BACKING OFF ON
MVFR VSBYS EXCEPT FOR AT CAE, SO CONFIDENCE IS A LITTLE LOWER, BUT
MAINTAINED TEMPO GROUPS AFTER 9/10Z. IF ANY RESTRICTIONS OCCUR THEY
SHOULD IMPROVE BACK TO VFR BY 13/14Z. OTHERWISE, MID AND UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS WITH BASES AROUND 4-6KFT MSL, WITH THE MOST COVER AROUND
AGS/DNL THIS MORNING. CLEARING TO SKC THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING. SFC WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH DAYBREAK, THEN
SHIFTING MORE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AFTER 15Z WITH SPEEDS AROUND 5
TO 8 KNOTS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COULD BRING
MORNING FOG OR STRATUS AGAIN ON SUNDAY AND ON MONDAY AHEAD OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT BEFORE DRIER AIR FILTERS IN ON TUESDAY.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
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