779
FXUS62 KCAE 031035
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
635 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 12Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE WEEK AS
TEMPERATURES HOVER AROUND AVERAGE.
DISCUSSION
- 1. DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE WEEK AS
TEMPERATURES HOVER AROUND AVERAGE.
AN UPPER TROUGH HAS DUG INTO THE SOUTHEAST EARLY THIS MORNING.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT A CLOSED LOW WILL BREAK OFF
FROM THIS TROUGH EARLY IN THE WEEK; HOWEVER, THE LATEST TRENDS
HAVE SHIFTED THIS LOW FARTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS.
AHEAD OF THE TRANSITION TO A CLOSED LOW, THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE PRIME DRY SLOT AREA
OF THE TROUGH, LIMITING AVAILABLE MOISTURE (MAINLY IN THE MID TO
UPPER LEVELS) AVAILABLE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. SO, THE HIGHEST
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO BE
EAST AND SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR. WEST OF THERE, WOULDN'T BE
SURPRISED IF LITTLE TO NO RAIN FALLS. AS THE TROUGH TRANSITIONS
TO A CLOSED LOW, HIGHER RAIN CHANCES MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA
WITH ACTIVITY TOMORROW AND WEDNESDAY. THE TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO
FORECAST TO BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN AVERAGE TO START THE
WEEK AS THIS LOW MOVES NEAR THE AREA. THE LOW GRADUALLY GETS
ABSORBED INTO THE MAIN FLOW FOR MID TO LATE WEEK AS AN UPPER
RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD OFFSHORE, PUTTING THE CSRA AND MIDLANDS ON
THE PERIPHERY, LEADING TO DAILY SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES TO THE
REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES ALSO GRADUALLY
RISE TO NEAR OR JUST ABOVE AVERAGE.
AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MID MORNING
WITH A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS THROUGH THE DAY.
UPPER TROUGH AXIS REMAINS TO OUR WEST WITH DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW OVER THE REGION. STRATUS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
IMPACTING ALL TERMINALS WITH AT LEAST MVFR CIGS. LOW CLOUDS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH LATE MORNING BEFORE GRADUALLY
LIFTING BACK TO VFR BY AFTERNOON. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND SHOULD
INCREASE TO AROUND 6 TO 8 KNOTS BY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED TODAY BUT COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE A BIT
LESS AND MAYBE FAVORING THE EASTERN MIDLANDS BUT WILL CONTINUE
THE PROB30 FOR NOW. ENVIRONMENT SEEMS FAVORABLE FOR SOME SORT OF
RESTRICTIONS AGAIN TONIGHT BUT GUIDANCE IS INCONSISTENT WITH
WHERE FOG/STRATUS MAY DEVELOP.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PERIODIC SHOWERS-STORMS EXPECTED IN
THE AFTERNOONS THIS WEEK ALONG WITH CIG RESTRICTIONS IN THE
MORNINGS EARLY THIS WEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...29
AVIATION...23
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