250
FXUS62 KCAE 221049
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
649 AM EDT SAT AUG 22 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WITH AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WITH AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES.
PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGING THAT WAS IN PLACE THE LAST WEEK WILL GIVE
WAY TO TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN US. THIS WILL LEAD TO MORE
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WITH BLENDED GUIDANCE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S
AND LOW 90S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S. RELATIVELY HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST WITH A LIMITED INTERQUARTILE
RANGE WITHIN BLENDED GUIDANCE.
DRIER AIR IS BEGINNING TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE AREA WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW STRENGTHENING THROUGH TODAY. THIS WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE, ALTHOUGH LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE, ESPECIALLY IN THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED STORMS
WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY AND HREF SBCAPE APPROACHING 2000 J/KG. BY
SUNDAY, NAEFS MEAN INDICATES PWATS WILL BE AROUND THE TENTH
PERCENTILE, AROUND AN INCH AND WHILE CAN'T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A
STRAY STORM WITH A STRONG MOISTURE GRADIENT NEAR THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA, EXPECTED MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS. WHILE
ISOLATED DIURNALLY DRIVEN STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS WEEK,
INCREASING MOISTURE MID TO LATE WEEK WILL LIKELY LEAD TO HIGHER
COVERAGE OF STORMS EACH AFTERNOON WITH LREF PROBABILITIES AROUND 50-
70% OF PWATS GREATER THAN 1.75 INCHES WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK AND WEAK SHORTWAVES LEADING TO INCREASED FORCING.
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
IFR/LIFR CEILINGS IN PLACE WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON.
WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CEILINGS VISIBLE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS
MORNING WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND A STALLED WEAK
FRONT. CEILINGS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE AFTER SUNRISE WITH
RESTRICTIONS HANGING INTO THE AFTERNOON. PATCHY VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AS WELL BUT THE DOMINANT RESTRICTIONS WILL
BE LOW CEILINGS. ISOLATED STORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON BUT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS AT THIS ISSUANCE AS
DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. WIDESPREAD
RESTRICTIONS TONIGHT APPEAR UNLIKELY, ALTHOUGH WILL NEED TO
MONITOR HOW QUICKLY DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...ISOLATED STORMS EACH AFTERNOON WITH
HIGHER COVERAGE OF STORMS EXPECTED BY MIDWEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...96
AVIATION...PL/96
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