847
FXUS62 KCAE 061840
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
240 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
LESS CONVECTIVE COVERAGE POSSIBLE DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK.AVIATION
DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 18Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. HOT CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA, WITH CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: HOT CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA, WITH
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
ACTIVE AFTERNOON SO FAR, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COLUMBIA METRO AND
LAKE MURRAY. NEARLY 2500 J/KG OF MLCAPE HAS DEVELOPED IN THE
MOIST AIRMASS WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. THIS
LED TO ROBUST INITIATION OVER LAKE MURRAY BEFORE ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT HAS CONTINUED ALONG THE OUTFLOW FROM THESE INITIAL
STORMS WITH SOME BACK- BUILDING INTO LEXINGTON COUNTY. PWAT'S
ARE NEAR 2.0" AT THE MOMENT AND WITH STORM MOTIONS BEING SLOWLY
TOWARD THE E/ENE, TRAINING STORMS COULD BRING AN ISOLATED FLASH
FLOOD RISK OVER THE COMING HOURS. WITH THE INFLUX OF MOISTURE
THIS AFTERNOON, DCAPE VALUES ARE A BIT LESS THAN YESTERDAY BUT
THE MAIN HAZARD IN ANY STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORM WILL BE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS FROM PRECIP- LOADED DOWNBURSTS. DUE TO
THIS, MAJORITY OF THE CWA IS IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER (LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5) THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING.
HEADING INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK, THIS REPETITIVE PATTERN
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN DUE TO
THE TROUGH IN THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IMPINGING ON IT. THIS
WILL ALLOW SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO ADVECT A COUPLE WEAK SHORTWAVES
INTO THE AREA ALONG WITH MAINTAINING PWAT'S NEAR 2", ESPECIALLY
THROUGH TUESDAY. OVERALL, THIS IS EXPECTED TO BRING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION EACH DAY THIS WEEK WHERE STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THIS COMES AS MEAN
HREF MUCAPE VALUES EXCEED 2000 J/KG TUESDAY WITH FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUPPORTING THIS LATER INTO THE WEEK AS WELL. IT IS
WORTH NOTING THAT THE LATEST BLEND HAS TRENDED A BIT DRIER
WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY, LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO WEAK HEIGHT RISES, BUT
AT LEAST ISOLATED CONVECTION STILL SEEMS POSSIBLE ON THESE DAYS.
AS HAS BEEN DISCUSSED THE LAST 4-5 DAYS PROLONGED HEAT IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS WEEK. TEMPERATURES MAY END UP A BIT
CLOSER TO NORMAL TUESDAY, BUT DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S
SHOULD BRING HEAT INDICES AS HIGH AS 105F. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW 850MB TEMPERATURES THAT REMAIN NEAR 20-22C THE
REST OF THE WEEK AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SLIGHTLY LESS STORM
COVERAGE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY COULD BRING MAX TEMPERATURES
BACK TO THE UPPER 90S. THESE DAYS COULD BE WHEN HEAT INDICES
APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA WITH DEWPOINTS LIKELY REMAINING
TOWARD THE LOWER 70S SO THIS POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED. REGARDLESS, IF YOU MUST BE OUT IN THE HEAT FOR
PROLONGED PERIODS OF TIME, ENSURE THAT YOU HYDRATE PROPERLY AND
TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS TO AVOID HEAT RELATED ILLNESSES.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS ONCE AGAIN POSSIBLE IN AFTERNOON TSRA/SHRA.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. CENTRAL
MIDLANDS SITES IMPACTED AT ISSUANCE TIME, WITH IFR VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS INDICATED AT TIMES. IN ADDITION, EXPECTING TO HAVE
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT AT AND AROUND ALL OTHER TAF LOCATIONS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HAVE TEMPO GROUP AT ALL SITES FOR IFR
RESTRICTIONS IN STORMS THROUGH 20Z, THEN PROB30 FOR NOW FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AFTER 20Z. MAY ALSO SEE SOME GUSTY
WINDS IN THE STRONGEST STORMS, BETWEEN 25-35 KNOTS. WILL ADJUST
AND UPDATE AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD
DIMINISH TOWARDS SUNSET, LEAVING MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...DAILY RAIN CHANCES AND POSSIBLE
RESTRICTIONS CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DH
AVIATION...73
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