855
FXUS62 KCAE 142347
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
747 PM EDT THU MAY 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO CHANGES MADE WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES
WARMING ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
STRONG UPPER RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND, PROMOTING A WARMING AND PREDOMINANTLY DRY PATTERN
ACROSS THE FA. THE RIDGE WILL LIKELY AID IN STRENGTHENING A
BERMUDA HIGH WITH SOLID AGREEMENT THAT A WARMING TREND ENSUES
WITH RISING UPPER-LEVEL HEIGHTS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TRENDING ABOVE NORMAL,
WITH MANY LOCATIONS GRADUALLY REACHING INTO THE LOWER 90S THIS
WEEKEND. THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A DEEP
TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE CENTRAL US FURTHER AMPLIFIES THE RIDGE
OVERHEAD. FORTUNATELY, MOISTURE LEVELS SHOULDN'T BE HIGH ENOUGH
TO SUPPORT MAX HEAT INDICES MUCH HIGHER THAN AIR TEMPS. IN BOTH
THE RECENT EC ENSEMBLE AND GEFS SOLUTIONS, AS WELL AS THEIR
INDIVIDUAL MEMBERS, PWAT'S SHOULD GRADUALLY RAISE ABOVE 1"
SUNDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEK AS PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE CONVECTION ENSUES, BRINGING SEASONABLE INSTABILITY TO
THE REGION. THIS MAY AID IN BRINGING A BIT OF A SUMMER-LIKE
PATTERN WITH DIURNAL RAIN CHANCES POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO NEXT
WEEK. THERE IS A BIT MORE UNCERTAINTY HEADING INTO THE MID WEEK
IN TERMS OF THE PROGRESSION OF THE DEEP TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS
AND THE RIDGE OVERHEAD.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY.
WINDS WILL SUBSIDE THROUGH THE EVENING, BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AROUND 09Z AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION. AS
THE SURFACE HIGH TRAVERSES THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY EXPECT
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. BY THE LATE
AFTERNOON WE COULD SEE SW DIRECTION FAVORED BUT WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT. A VERY DRY AIR MASS FOR THE SEASON WILL PRECLUDE
FOG.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MOISTURE INCREASES SUNDAY AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK WHICH MAY LEAD TO EARLY MORNING FOG OR STRATUS.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ND
AVIATION...CJR
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