963
FXUS62 KCAE 031043
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
643 AM EDT SAT OCT 3 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 12Z
TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA LEADING TO INCREASING CHANCES
FOR RAIN AND COOLER TEMPS THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
INCREASING CONCERN FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.
DISCUSSION
.KEY MESSAGE 1: FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA LEADING TO INCREASING
CHANCES FOR RAIN AND COOLER TEMPS THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT
WEEK INCREASING CONCERN FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.
HIGH PRESSURE HAS SHIFTED OFFSHORE ALLOWING A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
RETURN ALLOWING GULF MOISTURE TO SURGE NORTH. CURRENT PWATS
RANGE BETWEEN 1.8 AND 2.0 WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S ACROSS
THE FA. CURRENT 0Z SOUNDING FROM CHS SHOWS DEEP MOISTURE FROM
THE SURFACE TO THE 500 MB LEVEL WITH A POCKET OF DRY AIR IN THE
UPPER-LEVELS. DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
MOISTENING THE ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS OFFSHORE INTO TONIGHT, MORE
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE INCREASE IS EXPECTED WITH SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW DEVELOPING ALOFT. HREF MEAN INDICATES PWATS WILL RISE TO
ABOVE 2 INCHES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA, CLOSER TO 2.2 INCHES
NEAR THE COASTAL PLAIN. THIS AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IS UNUSUAL FOR
OCTOBER AS THE NAEFS IS AT THE 99TH PERCENTILE. THIS WILL LEAD
TO WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVERAGE AND CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS
IN THE MORNING, ALTHOUGH FORCING WILL BE GENERALLY WEAK SO ANY
SHOWERS WILL LIKELY REMAIN LIGHT. WHILE INSTABILITY WILL
GENERALLY BE WEAK WITH BLENDED GUIDANCE INDICATION PROBABILITY
OF SBCAPE GREATER THAN 1000 J/KG AROUND 20 PERCENT OR LESS. AS A
RESULT, STORM COVERAGE MAY BE SOMEWHAT ISOLATED, WITH SEVERE
STORMS UNLIKELY AND MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN THE MAIN THREAT.
HEAVIEST WILL LIKELY BE ALONG THE AXIS OF THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY STALLED OVER WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA
INTO NORTHERN GEORGIA. HIGHER RESOLUTION GUIDANCE GENERALLY
FAVORS IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA, ALTHOUGH THE EXACT
LOCATION FOR HEAVIEST RAIN AXIS REMAINS UNCERTAIN. TRENDS ARE
LEANING TOWARDS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20 WITH THE HEAVIEST RAIN
SETTING UP FROM EAST TO WEST, HOWEVER IT IS UNCERTAIN EXACTLY
WHERE THE HEAVIER POCKETS OF RAIN SETUP. STRONG CONVERGENCE
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AND
MAY LEAD TO SOME GENERAL FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS INTO THE DAY
ON SUNDAY WHEN UPPER LEVEL FORCING STRENGTHENS AS A ROBUST
SHORTWAVE LIKELY MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE
MORE SCATTERED SATURDAY AND WIDESPREAD SUNDAY EVENING WITH THE
BULK OF THE RAIN LIKELY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WITH MOISTURE
ANOMALOUSLY HIGH, THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO THIS WEEKEND IS
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS GREATER THAN 2 INCHES, WITH BLENDED
PROBABILITIES OF 60-70 PERCENT. HREF LPMM INDICATES THIS HIGHER
AXIS OF GREATER THAN 3 INCHES WITH LOCALIZED SPOTS OF EVEN
HIGHER AMOUNTS. DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH
MONDAY WITH THE AXIS OF HEAVIER RAIN SHIFTING SOUTHWARD AS AN
UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE NORTHEAST. RAIN SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR
OUT BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN FAVORING
DRIER AIR INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH COOLER AIR BEHIND
THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES MAY DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN LOW TO MID 50S.
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A MIXTURE OF VFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD WITH MOISTURE AND RAINFALL POTENTIAL INCREASING.
SATELLITE SHOWING PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER TO START OFF THE TAF
PERIOD OVERNIGHT. OBSERVATIONS OVERNIGHT HAVE BEEN A MIXTURE OF
VFR AND MVFR/IFR CEILINGS, PRIMARILY IN THE CSRA. HOWEVER EVEN
THE MIDLANDS TAFS HAVE FLUCTUATED BRIEFLY EARLY THIS MORNING.
SOME RETURN TO VFR IS EXPECTED LATER THIS MORNING, BUT WILL AT
LEAST KEEP A TEMPO FOR MVFR RESTRICTIONS THROUGH 15Z AT ALL
LOCATIONS, ESPECIALLY WITH SOME LIGHT RAINFALL DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE AREA.
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS,
AND SOME MVFR RESTRICTIONS IN SHOWERS WILL BECOMING POSSIBLE
ONCE AGAIN. EXPECTING TO ENCOUNTER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND AFTERNOON HOURS AS
CEILINGS SLOWLY LOWER. HOWEVER PRIMARILY VFR CEILINGS OUTSIDE
OF HEAVIER RAINFALL, WITH MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN A STRONGER
SHOWER OR STORM. RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT
AS DEEPER GULF MOISTURE BEGINS PUSHING INTO THE REGION. WINDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOULD BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR SOUTHERLY
AROUND 7 KTS OR LESS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING MAY LEAD TO
RESTRICTIONS.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...NS
AVIATION...73
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