171
FXUS62 KCAE 021154
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
654 AM EST MON FEB 2 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) LOWS IN THE TEENS TONIGHT WILL CAUSE PATCHY BLACK ICE.
- 2) RAIN CHANCES RAMP UP MID WEEK AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE #1: LOWS IN THE TEENS TONIGHT WILL CAUSE PATCHY
BLACK ICE.
CLEAR SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS WILL LEAD TO TO STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING THIS MORNING. COOLING IS EXPECTED TO BE
ENHANCED BY THE RESIDUAL SNOW PACK WHICH DID NOT MELT
YESTERDAY, PARTICULARLY IN THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS. A COLD WEATHER
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT AS TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO
THE TEENS AND POSSIBLY SINGLE DIGITS IN THE NORTHERN AREAS.
ANY LINGERING SNOW OR LIQUID ON ROADWAYS WILL REFREEZE IN SPOTS
WHICH MAY CREATE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS. THERE MAY BE
PATCHY FREEZING FOG THAT DEVELOPS THIS MORNING BUT WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID TEENS THIS IS A VERY UNCOMMON
SCENARIO FOR THE AREA SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
KEY MESSAGE #2: RAIN CHANCES RAMP UP MID WEEK AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT.
NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE FORECAST FOR THE MID-WEEK SYSTEM EXPECTED
TO BRING RAIN TO THE REGION. LREF CLUSTER ANALYSIS SHOWS LITTLE
VARIABILITY BETWEEN GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SO FORECAST
CONFIDENCE REMAINS STABLE. AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN
THE SOUTHEAST WE WILL SEE RAIN SPREAD INTO THE REGION FROM
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. INSTABILITY IS WEAK AND
ELEVATED IN EVEN THE MOST AGGRESSIVE MODELS SO THE THREAT OF
SEVERE WEATHER IS MINIMAL. COLD AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM
FAVORING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE....
SKIES ARE CLEAR ACROSS THE TERMINALS AT DAYBREAK. WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR TRENDS FOR LOW END FREEZING FOG POSSIBILITIES BUT
THE CURRENT DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS REMAIN LARGE SO DEVELOPMENT IS
UNLIKELY. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY WITH WEST
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AT THE SURFACE, BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TONIGHT.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER SYSTEM AND FRONT
MOVING INTO THE AREA DURING MID-WEEK COULD BRING RESTRICTIONS
BACK TO THE REGION.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR SCZ016-
018-020>022-025>031-035-037-038-041-115-116-135>137.
GA...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR GAZ040-
063>065-077.
DISCUSSION...CJR
AVIATION...07
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