462
FXUS62 KCAE 281109
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
609 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2025
SYNOPSIS
COOL AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
SATURDAY. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE ON SUNDAY WITH SEVERAL DAYS OF
WET WEATHER POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS
BACK IN FOR WEDNESDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- COLD WEATHER CONTINUES WITH TEMPS IN THE 20S TONIGHT
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH
THE NEAR TERM WITH AN UPPER RIDGE TO OUR WEST. COLD, DRY AIR
WILL BE OVER THE AREA WITH DAYTIME HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 40S
NORTH TO MID 50S SOUTH. EXPECT CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE DAY BUT
HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO PUSH OVERHEAD AFTER SUNSET. OVERNIGHT,
TEMPERATURES MAY DROP QUICKLY WITH JUST A FEW THIN, HIGH CLOUDS
AT FIRST. HOWEVER CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
OVERNIGHT LEADING TO WEAKER NET RADIATIONAL COOLING. WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STILL OFF TO OUR NORTH A 15 TO 20 KT LLJ
WILL DEVELOP ALSO HINDERING RADIATIONAL COOLING. EXPECT LOWS
FROM THE MID TO UPPER 20S FOR MOST AREAS.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE SATURDAY WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY.
- FRONT APPROACHES SUNDAY WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN
CHANCES.
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT: SATURDAY SHOULD SEE THE CENTER OF
THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTING OFF SHORE THROUGH THE DAY AS A UPPER
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW MOVE INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.
LOW LEVEL FLOW STARTS TO SHIFT MORE EASTERLY THROUGH THE DAY BUT
THE VERY DRY AND COLD AIRMASS HANGS ON WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
BETWEEN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. DEWPOINTS LIKELY REMAIN IN
THE TEENS MUCH OF THE DAY BEFORE STEADILY INCREASING OVERNIGHT
AND INTO SUNDAY AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHEASTERLY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE A BIT MORE MILD WITH THE INCREASING
MOISTURE, IN THE LOW TO MID 30S BUT SPOTS IN THE UPPER 20S WILL
BE POSSIBLE.
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT: A COLD FRONT WILL WORK TOWARD THE FA
SUNDAY AS A WARM ADVECTION REGIME SETS UP WITH DEEP
SOUTHWESTERLY DEVELOPING AND PWAT'S THAT RAISE TO NEAR 1", UP
SIGNIFICANTLY FROM PWAT'S LESS THAN 0.30" JUST 24 HOURS PRIOR. A
COUPLE WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS COULD BE POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE
DAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT, BUT THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE
FA SOMETIME DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, LIKELY STALLING
NEAR THE COAST OVERNIGHT. OUTSIDE OF THE SURFACE FRONT, FORCING
IS RELATIVELY WEAK AND THUS THERE IS SOME DISCREPANCY AMONGST
MODELS ON THE COVERAGE OF POTENTIAL SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS SEEM POSSIBLE WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH FAIRLY LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS. DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY IN SHOWER COVERAGE AND CLOUD COVER, A FAIRLY WIDE
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT COULD BE SEEN FROM NW TO SE, RANGING FROM
THE MID 50S IN THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS AND THE MID 60S TOWARD THE
FAR EASTERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- ISOLATED RAIN CHANCES MONDAY BEFORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS
LIKELY TUESDAY.
- DRIER WEATHER MOVES IN FOR THE MIDWEEK.
GENERAL AGREEMENT IN THE PATTERN FOR THE EXTENDED REMAINS IN
GLOBAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE OUTSIDE OF SOME SLIGHT
TIMING ISSUES WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM. ANOTHER TROUGH BEGINS MOVING
INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY WITH MOISTURE
CONTINUING TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY (PWAT'S AROUND 100-125%
OF NORMAL). A COUPLE SHORTWAVE IMPULSES COULD SPARK ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY AND AID IN DEVELOPING IN-SITU
WEDGING CONDITIONS WITH THE BULK OF THE CWA LIKELY NORTH OF THE
STALLED FRONT, BRINGING COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. AS THE
TROUGH CONTINUES EASTWARD, CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED ALONG THE
GULF COAST ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND THIS IS WHERE
TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE TRANSLATION SPEED OF THE DEVELOPING
LOW EXIST.
THE DETERMINISTIC GFS IS THE FASTEST SOLUTION WITH THE LOW
APPROACHING AND MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT MONDAY AND
INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON (THUS HIGHEST POP'S DURING THIS WINDOW)
WHILE THE ECMWF IS SLOWER, BRINGING IT THROUGH DURING THE LATE
MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ON TUESDAY. EITHER WAY,
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE ADVECTION AND FORCING IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
IN TUESDAY FROM THE LOW AND UPPER TROUGH, AS PWAT'S IN MEAN
ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS REACH ABOVE 200% OF NORMAL. THIS IS EXPECTED
TO BRING A MUCH NEEDED SOAKING RAINFALL TO THE FA TUESDAY WITH
WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO AT TIMES HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE. THERE IS
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT AS THE TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW MOVE OFF THE
COAST, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD FILL BACK IN WITH DRIER
CONDITIONS FOR THE MIDWEEK. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL BEFORE CREEPING BACK NEAR
NORMAL INTO THURSDAY.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO MID ATLANTIC STATES TODAY
PROMOTING NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS UNTIL AROUND 00Z
WHEN WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE. A 15 TO 20 KT LLJ
TONIGHT AND THE DRY AIR MASS WILL PREVENT ANY FOG OR STRATUS
CONCERNS BUT WE WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE
NIGHT.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES
SATURDAY WHICH WILL LEAD TO HIGHER CHANCES FOR RESTRICTIONS AND
WIDESPREAD RAIN FROM SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
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