491
FXUS62 KCAE 201718
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
118 PM EDT SAT APR 20 2019
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA ON EASTER SUNDAY AND REMAIN
OVER THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK WITH A WARMING TREND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN PA WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THIS EVENING WHILE THE UPPER TROUGH MEANDERS NORTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA. THE COLD POOL ALOFT COMBINED WITH DIURNAL
HEATING IS RESULTING IN SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON.
WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVENING, EXPECT SHOWERS TO QUICKLY
DISSIPATE AND CLOUDS TO DIMINISH. GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY ON AREA LAKES. A LAKE WIND
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 8 P.M. TEMPERATURES ARE ON
TRACK TO MAX OUT IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S THIS AFTERNOON.
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL BE LESS THAN IDEAL TONIGHT
GIVEN A 25 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET, HOWEVER, WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
COLD AIR OVER THE REGION, OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE
TO UPPER 40S.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
SUNDAY SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY, BUT TEMPS WILL STILL BE A LITTLE
COOL. 850 MB TEMPS WILL BE 1-2 SD BELOW NORMAL, SO EVEN WITH GOOD
MIXING, WE WILL REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH 65-70 NORTH
AND 70-75 SOUTH FOR MAXIMUMS.
IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL SET UP SUNDAY NIGHT, BUT WILL BE
OFFSET SOMEWHAT BY QUICKLY RISING TEMPS AT 850 MB. CURRENT FORECAST
CALLS FOR LOW TEMPS IN THE 40S, BUT AN UPPER 30S IN ONE OF THE USUAL
COLD SPOTS IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
MONDAY A WARM UP WILL COMMENCE AS THE CORE OF THE HIGH SLIPS
OFF THE COAST AND WARM ADVECTION KICKS IN. TEMPS WILL BE BACK TO
NORMAL BY AFTERNOON, WITH MID TO UPPER 70S NORTH AND AROUND 80
ELSEWHERE UNDER FULL SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
FAIR AND WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY, AND
PROBABLY INTO THURSDAY AS WELL AS IT LOOKS LIKE THE MID WEEK
BACKDOOR FRONT WILL STALL TO OUR NORTH. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL
WITH 80S EXPECTED EVERYWHERE.
MODELS START TO DIVERGE FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE
FORMS IN THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND TRIES TO MOVE EASTWARD.
LOT'S OF TIME TO WATCH THE SYSTEM AND WHETHER IT MAKES A STRAIGHT
RUN EASTWARD, OR DIVES MORE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO
AND ALLOWS HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH. GFS HAS HAD
MAJOR RUN TO RUN CHANGES DURING THAT TIME PERIOD, SO TRYING TO
DECIDE ON ANY ONE SOLUTION THIS FAR OUT WITH THE MODEL UNCERTAINTY
BEING EXHIBITED IS A FOOLS GAME.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE AT TIMES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. VFR FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER PA WILL CONTINUE MOVING
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH TONIGHT. A RELATIVELY TIGHT SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA IS RESULTING IN SOUTHWEST/WEST
WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS. SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS SCATTERED TO BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS ACROSS THE AREA.
CEILINGS HAVE GENERALLY REMAINED AT VFR LEVELS, BUT HAVE SEEN
SOME BROKEN MVFR AT TIMES. VFR BROKEN CEILINGS EXPECTED FOR MOST
OF THE AFTERNOON. REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS
THE AREA, BUT INTENSITY IS TOO LIGHT TO AFFECT VISIBILITIES AT
THE TERMINALS. CLEARING CONDITIONS DURING THE EVENING WITH
DIMINISHING WINDS. DRY AIR AND MIXING WILL PREVENT ANY FOG
FORMATION EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. DRY CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES ON SUNDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE FORECAST
AREA.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GAZ040-
063>065-077.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ016-018-
020>022-025>031-035>038-041-115-116.
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