072
FXUS62 KCAE 302338
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
738 PM EDT THU APR 30 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN BENEFICIAL RAINFALL FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY. SIGNIFICANT WARMUP EXPECTED NEXT WEEK. AVIATION
UPDATED FOR 00Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. SIGNIFICANT AND BENEFICIAL RAINFALL EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY.
- 2. COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY A
SIGNIFICANT WARMUP NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: SIGNIFICANT AND BENEFICIAL RAINFALL EXPECTED
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
THE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES TO FAVOR THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
MOST SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EVENT IN OVER A MONTH FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY DIGGING INTO THE MIDWEST
FRIDAY IS FORECAST TO PHASE WITH SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY MOVING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE GULF COAST STATES BY FRIDAY
EVENING. NAEFS IVT REACHES THE 97TH PERCENTILE WITH STRONG
MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY. ENSEMBLE FORECASTS OF PWATS SHOW A STRONG GRADIENT
ACROSS THE REGION WITH VALUES RANGING FROM 1.7 INCHES IN THE
SOUTHEAST MIDLANDS TO 1.2 INCHES IN THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS AT 12Z
SATURDAY, WHICH LIKELY WOULD FAVOR HIGHER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
IN THE SOUTHEAST MIDLANDS WITH A GRADIENT TO LOWER VALUES
NORTH. THIS LOOKS TO BE A STRONG OVERRUNNING EVENT WITH A
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE GULF COAST AND MOVING OFF THE
CAROLINAS COAST WITH LITTLE TO NO INSTABILITY AVAILABLE. THE
EVENTUAL RAINFALL TOTALS AND AXIS OF HIGHEST PRECIPITATION WILL
ULTIMATELY BE DICTATED BY WHEN THE PHASING OCCURS AND AND IF
THERE IS ANY AMPLIFICATION OF THE TROUGH. HOWEVER, OVERALL
RAINFALL TRENDS HAVE CONTINUED TO IMPROVE WITH LREF PROBABILITY
OF 1 INCH OF RAIN INCREASING OVER THE PAST 3 MODEL RUNS,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST MIDLANDS AND LOWER CSRA. NBM
ALSO CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN RAINFALL TOTALS WITH THE 50TH
PERCENTILE VALUES NOW WELL OVER AN INCH ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.
HOWEVER, THE NBM CONTINUES TO SHOW A LARGE RANGE IN VALUES WITH
THE 25TH PERCENTILE RANGING FROM AROUND 0.4 INCHES NORTH TO 1.25
INCHES SOUTH AND THE 75TH PERCENTILE RANGING FROM AROUND 1.5
INCHES NORTH TO 2.4 INCHES SOUTH. REGARDLESS, THIS SHOULD BE THE
IDEAL WAY TO HELP IMPROVE DROUGHT CONDITIONS WITH A LONG
DURATION SOAKING STRATIFORM RAINFALL EVENT RATHER THAN STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOTS OF RUNOFF FROM DRY HARD SURFACE
CONDITIONS.
KEY MESSAGE 2: COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND
FOLLOWED BY A SIGNIFICANT WARMUP NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND EXPECTED TO BE WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH
EXTENSIVE RAINFALL ON SATURDAY AND CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL ON
SUNDAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES MAY BE NEARLY 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR
HIGHS ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S AS NAEFS 1000MB
AND 850MB TEMPERATURES ARE AT OR BELOW THE 10TH PERCENTILE.
TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS.
HIGHS EXPECTED TO RISE BACK INTO THE 80S BY TUESDAY AND MID TO
UPPER 80S BY WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY INTO EARLY FRIDAY BEFORE MVFR STRATUS
POSSIBLE.
LINGERING CEILINGS HAVE ALL BUT DISSIPATED ACROSS ALL TERMINALS
WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS EVENING AND INTO
THE EARLY OVERNIGHT PERIOD. ANY REMAINING SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS
SHIFTED EAST OF THE AREA, THOUGH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MAY LINGER
NEAR THE COAST. OVERNIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING, ATTENTION
TURNS TO THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF LOW STRATUS WITH VICINITY
LIGHT SHOWERS THAT COULD PASS THROUGH TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST,
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. MVFR CEILINGS APPEAR POSSIBLE AFTER
10Z, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE AND TIMING REMAINS SOMEWHAT
UNCERTAIN GIVEN MIXED GUIDANCE. THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO FAVORS
AT LEAST A PERIOD OF MVFR RESTRICTIONS AROUND DAYBREAK FRIDAY
MORNING.
GENERALLY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH SOME GUSTS
UP TO AROUND 12-15 KNOTS FRIDAY MORNING. THROUGH THE REST OF
THE DAY, CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR UNDER OVERCAST
SKIES, WHILE WINDS GRADUALLY VEER TO EASTERLY AND SOUTHEASTERLY
BY THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM FRIDAY
NIGHT.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PERIODS OF RESTRICTIONS LIKELY
STARTING FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS WIDESPREAD RAIN
OVERSPREADS THE REGION. DRIER CONDITIONS THEN ARE EXPECTED
SUNDAY AND INTO THE EARLY WEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CAL
AVIATION...ND
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