324
FXUS62 KCAE 092324
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
724 PM EDT THU APR 9 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 00Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE WEEKEND TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE.
NEAR RECORD HIGHS POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE WEEKEND TO WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE. NEAR RECORD HIGHS POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK.
STRONG RIDGING TO OUR SOUTHEAST WILL STEADILY BUILDS HEIGHTS
AND RAISE TEMPS THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. NAEFS
MEAN INDICATES 500MB HEIGHTS WILL BE ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE
BY THE WEEKEND AND THEN THE 99TH PERCENTILE SUNDAY AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK; EVEN THE 5TH PERCENTILE IN THE LREF WOULD BE
5-10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. EC EFI IS CONSISTENT WITH A HIGH EFI
- LOW SOT, SUGGESTING NEAR RECORD HIGHS BUT GENERALLY UNLIKELY
TO BREAK ANY. SO NEEDLESS TO SAY, CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPS, FROM MONDAY ONWARD. WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE
RIDGING AND A DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE WITH HIGH PROBABILITY OF
PWATS LESS THAN 1 INCH BASED ON THE LREF, RAIN IS NOT EXPECTED
THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK. THIS COMBINED WITH WELL ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY EXACERBATE DROUGHT CONDITIONS.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
CLEAR SKIES ARE BEING NOTED OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER,
THERE ARE A FEW FIRES SHOWING UP ON SATELLITE THAT MAY OBSTRUCT
VISION AT TIMES. THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY SMOKE AFFECTING ANY OF
THE TERMINALS APPEARS LOW AT THIS TIME, BUT WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR AND AMEND IF NEEDED. WINDS DIMINISH AND BECOME MAINLY
VARIABLE TO CALM OVERNIGHT BEFORE BECOMING GENERALLY NORTHEAST
AFTER ABOUT 13Z OR 14Z. A WEAK BOUNDARY MOVING TOWARD THE AREA
LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD COULD PROVIDE SOME VARIABLE WINDS. AT
THIS TIME, AGS AND DNL LOOK TO HAVE EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
AFTER 21Z, BUT WILL MONITOR TRENDS AS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO COME
IN. OTHERWISE, MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THE CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD
RESTRICTIONS REMAINS LOW THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...FA
AVIATION...29
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