247
FXUS62 KCAE 292332
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
732 PM EDT WED APR 29 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
STILL EXPECTING RAIN CHANCES TO INCREASE LATE TONIGHT. UPDATED
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 00Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. A FEW SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE THIS EVENING, THEN A BETTER
CHANCE OF MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING.
- 2. CONFIDENCE INCREASING IN MODERATE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: A FEW SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE THIS EVENING, THEN
A BETTER CHANCE OF MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING.
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES BEING INDICATED THIS EVENING AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. CLOUD COVER SHOULD INCREASE
THROUGH THE EVENING AS INCREASING MOISTURE IN MID AND UPPER
LEVELS MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. RADARS NOT INDICATING MUCH IN THE
WAY OF PRECIP IN THE AREA, WITH THE BEST COVERAGE IN THE
MOUNTAINS AHEAD OF THE FRONT, AND ACROSS SOUTHERN ALABAMA IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A LARGER SCALE COMPLEX.
THE MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
OVERNIGHT AND THERE COULD BE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EVEN AN
ISOLATED STORM AS IT MOVES THROUGH. HOWEVER INSTABILITY WILL
REMAIN SOMEWHAT LIMITED, AND DO NOT EXPECT MUCH OF A SEVERE
THREAT. WITH THAT BEING SAID, GUIDANCE IS STILL SHOWING THE
LARGER COMPLEX THAT IS MOVING THROUGH THE GULF REGION THIS
EVENING WILL CONTINUE TRACKING EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. IT SHOULD
WEAKEN SOMEWHAT AS IT NEARS OUR SOUTHWESTERN FORECAST AREA LATE
TONIGHT, BUT A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED BEGINNING AROUND 08Z ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES.
AS WITH PREVIOUS GUIDANCE, THE CSRA SEEMS TO BE MORE FAVORED
THAN FURTHER TO THE NORTH AND HIGHEST POPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
CONCENTRATED ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR. INSTABILITY
LOOKS TO BE MORE ELEVATED IN NATURE BUT THERE WILL BE SHORTWAVE
ENERGY PROVIDING UPPER SUPPORT AS IT MOVES THROUGH. ANY RAINFALL
AT THIS POINT WILL CONTINUE TO BE BENEFICIAL GIVEN OUR DROUGHT
CONDITIONS.
KEY MESSAGE 2: CONFIDENCE INCREASING IN MODERATE RAINFALL FOR
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
CHANCES OF THE MOST SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WE HAVE SEEN IN A
WHILE CONTINUE TO LOOK PRETTY GOOD FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY DIGGING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST
IS EXPECTED TO PHASE WITH SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY MOVING ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MS VALLEY ON FRIDAY BEFORE SWINGING
THROUGH THE CAROLINAS AND OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL INDUCE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE GULF
COAST WHICH THEN LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE CAROLINA COAST ON
SATURDAY. WHILE IT APPEARS THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AND HIGHEST
TOTALS LIKELY REMAIN SOUTH OF OUR AREA, THERE SHOULD BE
REASONABLE CHANCES FOR MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL WITH NAEFS IVT ABOVE
THE 97TH PERCENTILE. THE CSRA AND SOUTHEAST MIDLANDS ARE MORE
FAVORED FOR HIGHEST RAINFALL GIVEN A GRADIENT IN PWATS WITH
HIGHER VALUES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. THERE IS LITTLE INSTABILITY
AVAILABLE WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT LOOKS LIKE AN OVERRUNNING EVENT
WITH THE SURFACE LOW TO OUR SOUTHEAST. LREF PROBABILITIES FOR
24HR RAINFALL AMOUNTS GREATER THAN 0.5 INCHES ARE IN THE 50-75
PERCENT RANGE FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AND
PROBABILITIES OF GREATER THAN 1 INCH ARE NEAR 50 PERCENT IN THE
SOUTHEAST MIDLANDS. 48HR QPF FROM THE NBM IS A BIT MORE BULLISH
WITH PRECIPITATION WITH THE 50TH PERCENTILE SHOWING MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA RECEIVING AT LEAST ONE INCH OF RAINFALL.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED THIS EVENING, WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS TOWARD EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
LINGERING LOW STRATUS HAS DIMINISHED ACROSS MOST TERMINALS THIS
EVENING, THOUGH TYPICAL SCT STRATO-CU REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA. A
WEAK COLD FRONT TO OUR WEST WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN SC, BUT
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW TO INCLUDE ANY IMPACTS AT THE TERMINALS.
MORE ORGANIZED AND WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY, AND POSSIBLY A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS, ARE EXPECTED EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AFTER 06Z
FROM A DECAYING STORM COMPLEX TO OUR WEST. THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL FOR RESTRICTIONS APPEARS TO BE MORE LIKELY FOR OGB,
AIK, AND THE AUGUSTA TERMINALS AS ACTIVITY ADVANCES FROM THE SW
TO NW. MAINTAINED THE TEMPO GROUPS THERE, WITH PROB30 MENTIONED
FOR COLUMBIA AREA TERMINALS. SOME BRIEF GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE
WITH THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS BUT GENERALLY SHOULD REMAIN
ELEVATED. SOME STRATUS MAY LINGER INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AFTER 20Z, WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PERIODS OF RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WITH MORE RAIN CHANCES,
ESPECIALLY FRIDAY NIGHT AND THROUGHOUT SATURDAY.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CAL
AVIATION...ND
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