899
FXUS62 KCAE 040049
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
849 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
CHANGED WORDING TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS. AVIATION
DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 00Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE EACH DAY THIS WEEK
AS TEMPERATURES HOVER AROUND AVERAGE. A COUPLE STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
- 1. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE EACH DAY THIS WEEK
AS TEMPERATURES HOVER AROUND AVERAGE. A COUPLE STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY.
FORCING FROM THE TROUGH IS BRINGING ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MIDLANDS. SHOWERS/STORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO DIMINISH SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET, WITH THE MAIN RISK BEING
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED INSTANCES OF FLASH
FLOODING IF TRAINING OCCURS.
THE MID LEVEL LOW IS PROGGED TO MEANDER THROUGH NORTHERN GA
TOWARD THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAY'S WITH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WORKING BACK INTO THE
FA, THOUGH SOME MID LEVEL DRY AIR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN
PLACE, ESPECIALLY TUESDAY. COOLING MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES/STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES TUESDAY SHOULD
BRING SOLID CAPE PROFILES WITH NEAR 2000-2500 J/KG OF SBCAPE
DEVELOPING AS EFFECTIVE SHEAR NEARS 20-30 KTS. GENEROUS BL
MIXING IS ALSO EXPECTED TO YIELD DCAPE AROUND 800-1200 J/KG.
OVERALL, FORCING FROM THE LOW IN THIS ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO
BRING MORE SCATTERED CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EVENING TUESDAY WHERE AN ISOLATED STRONG TO MARGINALLY
SEVERE STORM COULD BE POSSIBLE, BRINGING THE RISK OF DAMAGING
DOWNBURST WIND GUSTS. WEDNESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE SET UP FAIRLY
SIMILAR AS THE LOW REMAINS IN THE REGION, BUT THE RISK FOR
STRONGER STORMS SEEMS A BIT LOWER. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY BE
PICKED UP IN THE SYNOPTIC FLOW AS A ROBUST RIDGE NEAR THE NAEFS
CLIMATOLOGICAL MAX BUILDS OFF THE EAST COAST. THE RIDGE SHOULD
ALLOW DEEP SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO PERSIST LATE IN
THE WEEK AND INTO THIS WEEKEND, KEEPING PWAT'S DURING THIS
PERIOD NEAR 2" WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND DIURNALLY DRIVEN
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS EACH DAY.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
IFR OR LOWER RESTRICTIONS LIKELY AGAIN OVERNIGHT.
THE OVERALL PATTERN REMAINS LITTLE CHANGED SINCE YESTERDAY
PROMPTING A PERSISTENCE FORECAST FOR THE TAF SITES DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.
LIGHT WINDS AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
TUESDAY WILL ALLOW FOR WIDESPREAD STRATUS DEVELOPMENT,
POTENTIALLY BUILDING DOWN TO REDUCE VISIBILITIES. MODELS HAVE
BEEN PERSISTENT INDICATING IFR RESTRICTIONS FROM AROUND 06Z TO
AN HOUR OR SO AFTER SUNRISE. GIVEN THAT THIS VERIFIED WELL FOR
THE PREVIOUS DAY WE HAVE INTRODUCED IFR CEILINGS AT ALL TAF
SITES WITH LIFR CIGS/VIS IN A TEMPO GROUP FOR A FEW HOURS
AROUND SUNRISE.
LIGHT SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY
TUESDAY. WITH WEAK MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OVER THE AREA, WE
EXPECTED ANOTHER DAY OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
COVERAGE SHOULD SUPPORT PROB30 GROUPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON
TUESDAY AFTERNOON, SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS DAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
THIS WEEK WITH EARLY MORNING RESTRICTIONS LIKELY.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ND/DH
AVIATION...CJR
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