458
FXUS62 KCAE 221719
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
119 PM EDT SAT AUG 22 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
TEMPERATURES TODAY WERE ADJUSTED DOWN DUE TO CLOUD COVER ACROSS
THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN MIDLANDS. UPDATED 18Z AVIATION
DISCUSSION.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WITH AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WITH AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES.
DRIER AIR IS BEGINNING TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY WITH NORTHWEST FLOW STRENGTHENING. TEMPERATURES WERE
LOWERED FOR TODAY DUE TO PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE CWA. THE CLOUDS AND DRIER AIR WILL
LIMIT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE ALTHOUGH LINGERING LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE, ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA, WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
BY SUNDAY, NAEFS MEAN INDICATES PWATS WILL BE AROUND THE TENTH
PERCENTILE, AROUND AN INCH, AND WHILE CAN'T COMPLETELY RULE OUT
A STRAY THUNDERSTORM WITH A STRONG MOISTURE GRADIENT NEAR THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA, EXPECTED MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS. WHILE ISOLATED DIURNALLY DRIVEN THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS WEEK, INCREASING MOISTURE MID TO LATE
WEEK WILL LIKELY LEAD TO HIGHER COVERAGE OF STORMS EACH
AFTERNOON WITH LREF PROBABILITIES AROUND 50-70% OF PWATS,
GREATER THAN 1.75 INCHES, WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
AND WEAK SHORTWAVES LEADING TO INCREASED FORCING.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
CEILING RESTRICTIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE FROM MVFR BACK TO
VFR AT ALL SITES BY 19Z.
SATELLITE SHOWING CONTINUED BREAKING UP OF THE MVFR STRATUS DECK
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. CEILINGS RESTRICTIONS SHOULD BREAK UP BY
19Z, WITH VFR SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS ABOVE 3KFT EXPECTED
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. AN ISOLATED SHOWER CAN NOT
BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT, ESPECIALLY OVER THE FAR EASTERN
MIDLANDS AND SOUTHERN CSRA. WHILE TAF LOCATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN DRY, KOGB WOULD BE THE ONLY SITE THAT MAY NEED MONITORED
FOR SHOWERS LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
CUMULUS SHOULD DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET, THEN MAINLY SOME THIN
CIRRUS OVERNIGHT. GUIDANCE DOES SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR
VISIBILITIES AROUND SUNRISE THROUGH 13Z SUNDAY MORNING, AND WILL
HANDLE THAT WITH A TEMPO TO 4SM AT MOST SITES.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...ISOLATED STORMS EACH AFTERNOON WITH
HIGHER COVERAGE OF STORMS EXPECTED BY MIDWEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...7
AVIATION...73
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