826
FXUS62 KCAE 270007
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
807 PM EDT SAT SEP 26 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 00Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES
INITIALLY NEAR NORMAL WARMING BACK ABOVE NORMAL BY THE MID
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK WITH
TEMPERATURES INITIALLY NEAR NORMAL WARMING BACK ABOVE NORMAL BY
THE MID WEEK.
DRY AIR (PWAT'S BELOW 0.50") CONTINUES TO BE FILTERED INTO THE
REGION DUE TO THE NOR'EASTER AFFECTING THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW
ENGLAND AREAS THIS WEEKEND. WITH THE NOR'EASTER MEANDERING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS DUE TO A BLOCKING PATTERN, EXPECT SIMILAR
CONDITIONS AS WE HEAD INTO SUNDAY AND THEN THE NEW WORK WEEK.
ADDITIONALLY, EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD YIELD COOL
CONDITIONS THE NEXT COUPLE NIGHTS WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW
TO MID 50S, WITH SOME AREAS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 40S TONIGHT
AGAIN. HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK, THE BLOCKING PATTERN FROM THE
CLOSED UPPER LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE NOR'EASTER ALONG WITH THE
CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN AS A SHARP TROUGH
LIKELY DIGS INTO THE WESTERN US. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO
INTERACT WITH THE REMNANT MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE POLO AS IT
SHIFTS FROM THE PACIFIC INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION, THUS SOME
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE EXACT EVOLUTION OF THE TROUGH.
DESPITE THIS, THERE IS CONTINUED AGREEMENT ACROSS GLOBAL
ENSEMBLE MODELS THAT GRADUAL 500MB HEIGHT RISES ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE FA INTO THE MID WEEK, BRINGING TEMPERATURES BACK TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. MOISTURE SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE AS
WELL WITH RETURNING SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW,
BUT MOSTLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED MUCH OF THE WEEK.
TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD IS WHEN THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH COULD BEGIN SHIFTING INTO THE CENTRAL
CONUS AND POSSIBLE SUPPRESSION OF THE UPPER RIDGE COULD AID IN
BRINGING BACK AT LEAST ISOLATED DIURNAL SHOWER CHANCES.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA, ALONG WITH A VERY DRY AIRMASS,
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS
AT ALL TAF LOCATIONS. EXCEPTION MAY BE BRIEF SHALLOW
GROUND/RIVER FOG AT AGS, BUT NOT ENOUGH IMPACT TO PLACE IN THE
TAF. WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT, SHIFTING OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST BETWEEN 5 TO 10 KNOTS TOMORROW.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DH/29
AVIATION...96
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