683
FXUS62 KCAE 111805
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
205 PM EDT TUE AUG 11 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
DIURNAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE APPEARS ISOLATED OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HOWEVER THERE IS A CHANCE FOR MORE ORGANIZED
CONVECTION AND SEVERE WEATHER TO ENTER THE NORTHERN FA LATE
TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. STORMS WITH STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS POSSIBLE THROUGH THU
- 2. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LIKELY, HEAT ADVISORY POSSIBLE,
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
- 1. STORMS WITH STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS POSSIBLE THROUGH THU
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TO OUR WEST WILL ALLOW SEVERAL DISTURBANCES
TO DIG INTO THE CAROLINAS TODAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. IN
ADDITION TO TYPICAL DIURNALLY DRIVEN STORMS, THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION FROM DECAYING MCSS UPSTREAM.
MID-LEVEL DRY AIR WILL ALLOW FOR DCAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1000
J/KG TODAY AND WEDNESDAY SO ANY DIURNALLY DRIVEN PULSE-
CONVECTION WILL POSE A THREAT OF ISOLATED DOWNBURST WINDS.
IN TERMS OF A MORE WIDESPREAD WIND THREAT, MCSS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP IN THE MIDWEST AND DIG INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES BY
THE LATE EVENING TIME FRAME. IN THIS SETUP, WE TYPICALLY SEE A
DECAYING MCSS DIGGING INTO THE NORTHERN FA WELL AFTER PEAK
HEATING. HOWEVER, THERE ARE TIMES WHEN CONVECTION PERSISTS
LONGER THAN MODELS ANTICIPATE LEADING TO A COLD POOL DRIVEN LINE
OF STORMS CAUSING SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES AND WIND DAMAGE.
THESE LINES OF STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AND AGAIN
WEDNESDAY MORNING OR MID-DAY.
- 2. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LIKELY, HEAT ADVISORY POSSIBLE,
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NORTHWEST, DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND RISING HEIGHTS FAVOR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH MUCH OF THE 7 DAY FORECAST PERIOD. IF
CONVECTION DOES NOT HAMPER HEATING, WE WILL LIKELY HAVE HIGHS IN
THE MID 90S TO UPPER 90S. THE NBM MAY BE TOO WARM GIVEN ITS
VERIFICATION THROUGH THE SPRING/SUMMER SEASON HOWEVER HIGHS OF
AROUND 100 DEGREES CAN'T BE RULED OUT LATE THIS WEEK AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS RIDGING BUILDS OVERHEAD. HEAT INDEX VALUES SHOULD
RANGE FROM 100 TO 105 THROUGH FRIDAY WITH VALUES IN THE 105 TO
110 RANGE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THAT SAID WITH
CONVECTION POSSIBLE BOTH DAYS CONFIDENCE IN REACHING HEAT
ADVISORY IS LOW AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
RELATIVELY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
TAF FORECAST PERIOD.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP IN PORTIONS OF
GA AT THE TIME OF THIS UPDATE. CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED THAT
THIS ACTIVITY COULD AFFECT AGS, DNL, AND/OR AIK THIS AFTERNOON.
EXPECT GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS AND TYPICAL RESTRICTIONS SHOULD A
STORM AFFECT THESE TERMINALS. THE PROBABILITY OF CAE, CUB, AND
OGB BEING AFFECTED BY SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME. THERE IS SOME GUIDANCE
SUGGESTING ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT, BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. OUTSIDE OF SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY, GENERALLY WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 KTS CAN BE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND AFTER ABOUT 15Z TOMORROW, WITH
LIGHTER WINDS OVERNIGHT. ADDITIONALLY, VFR CONDITIONS ARE ALSO
ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A HOT AND DRIER WEATHER PATTERN
DEVELOPS THROUGH THE WEEK. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE
LOW AND RESTRICTIONS LIKELY MINIMAL AS HIGHS PUSH INTO THE UPPER
90S.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CJR
AVIATION...29
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