747
FXUS62 KCAE 060541
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
141 AM EDT SUN SEP 6 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AGAIN ON SUNDAY
BRINGING THE RISK OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, SMALL HAIL, AND
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 06Z
TAF ISSUANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AGAIN ON SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AGAIN ON
SUNDAY.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ON SUNDAY, BRINGING IMPACTS TO MUCH OF THE FA. A WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARY IS ANTICIPATED TO SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE REGION,
SERVING AS A LIFTING MECHANISM FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING
CONVECTION. THIS WILL BE AIDED FURTHER BY THE PASSAGE OF AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE. THE LATEST SPC
OUTLOOK PLACES MUCH OF OUR CWA IN A SLIGHT (2/5) RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER, WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AS THE PRIMARY THREAT AND
LARGE HAIL AS THE SECONDARY RISK. MODELED SOUNDINGS SHOW AMPLE
CAPE IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG AND AN INVERTED-V SIGNATURE
INDICATIVE OF THE DOWNBURST WIND THREAT. THE PRIMARY FAILURE
MODE WILL BE WHETHER SKIES ARE ABLE TO CLEAR OUT AND ALLOW THE
ATMOSPHERE TO DESTABILIZE SUFFICIENTLY. PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
HIGHER ON SUNDAY WHICH WOULD ALSO INCREASE THE RISK OF HEAVY
RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. THIS POTENTIAL IS
HIGHLIGHTED IN THE LATEST WPC ERO WHICH PUTS THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE CWA IN A SLIGHT (2/4) RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL, WITH A
MARGINAL ELSEWHERE. TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS HIGH
AS YESTERDAY WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S IN THE PEE
DEE AND IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S ELSEWHERE.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
POSSIBLE PREDAWN FOG/STRATUS AND THEN ANOTHER ROUND OF DIURNAL
CONVECTION LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING SOME LINGERING CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA BUT CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED
ACROSS THE REGION. LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM WIND THROUGH SUNRISE
THEN WINDS GRADUALLY PICK UP FROM THE EAST TO AROUND 5-6 KNOTS AFTER
15Z. ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE, ESPECIALLY LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVED
RAINFALL, AND CLEAR SKIES SHOULD PROVIDE AT LEAST THE POSSIBILITY OF
SOME PREDAWN FOG/STRATUS.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND UPPER DISTURBANCE APPROACHING THE REGION
COMBINED WITH DIURNAL INSTABILITY AND A SOUTHWARD SINKING COLD
FRONT WILL PROVIDE INCREASED CHANCES OF LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION. SIMILAR TO TODAY, SOME STORMS EXPECTED
TO BE SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. WILL CARRY A PROB30 GROUP FOR
NOW GIVEN SOME UNCERTAINTY IN EXACT TIMING AND LOCATION THAT CAN BE
PINNED DOWN MORE WITH TIME.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...DIURNAL STORM CHANCES CONTINUE INTO
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...7
AVIATION...23
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