397
FXUS62 KCAE 021750
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
150 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
TREND IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS INCREASINGLY LIKELY TO REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL INTO THE WEEKEND. AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 18Z
TAF ISSUANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. MOSTLY DRY WEATHER AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES ABOVE 100F.
- 2. ACTIVE WEATHER POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY DECREASING
TEMPERATURES.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1. MOSTLY DRY WEATHER AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES
ABOVE 100F.
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AS THE ROBUST UPPER RIDGE
CURRENTLY CENTERED JUST OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY CONTINUES TO
SLIDE ITS WAY OVERHEAD BY THURSDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY
RETROGRADING THIS WEEKEND. THERE REMAINS SOLID DETERMINISTIC
AND ENSEMBLE AGREEMENT THAT AS THIS RIDGE SHIFTS IN,
TEMPERATURES SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 90S AS 500MB HEIGHTS
NEAR THE CLIMATOLOGICAL MAX WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES NEAR THE
NAEFS 99.5TH PERCENTILE. A SLIGHT DIFFERENCE IN LATEST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THESE WELL-ABOVE TEMPS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND THERE ARE HINTS IT COULD CONTINUE INTO
SUNDAY. THE DAILY RECORD AT KCAE COULD STILL BE CHALLENGED
TODAY (99F IN 2014), CONSIDERING THE MAX TEMPERATURE YESTERDAY
WAS 98F WITH THE RIDGE POSITIONED FURTHER WEST THAN IT SHOULD BE
TODAY. HOWEVER, THE CURRENT CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT IN THE AREA
COULD KEEP US JUST SHY OF THE RECORD. THE KAGS RECORD WILL BE
TOUGHER TO NEAR (101F IN 1957), BUT VALUES TODAY COULD STILL
FALL NEAR 2-5 DEGREES WITHIN THIS. WITH PWAT'S REMAINING NEAR
1.90" MUCH OF THE WEEK, SURFACE DEWPOINTS SHOULD STICK TOWARD
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S, BRINGING WIDESPREAD HEAT INDICES
BETWEEN 100-105F EACH DAY THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH A POSSIBILITY
OF NEARING THOSE VALUES INTO SUNDAY. A COUPLE SPOTS NEARING
HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA (108F) COULD BE POSSIBLE, TOMORROW
THROUGH SATURDAY, BUT THIS WILL DEPEND LARGELY ON HOW DEEP OF
MIXING IS SEEN EACH DAY. OVERALL, A ANOMALOUS PERIOD OF HEAT AND
HUMIDITY WILL PERSIST MUCH OF THIS WEEK WITH AN INCREASED RISK
FOR HEAT- RELATED ILLNESSES SO BE SURE TO TAKE HEAT SAFETY
PRECAUTIONS THIS WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 2. ACTIVE WEATHER POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY
DECREASING TEMPERATURES.
THERE REMAINS SOLID AGREEMENT ACROSS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE THAT THE
UPPER RIDGE SHOULD GRADUALLY RETROGRADE THIS WEEKEND IN
RESPONSE TO A DEEP TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE EASTERN CONUS. AS
THIS OCCURS, A FRONT SHOULD NEAR THE AREA WITH ACCOMPANYING
SHORTWAVE ENERGY, BRINGING BACK THE CHANCE FOR AT LEAST
SCATTERED CONVECTION EACH AFTERNOON THIS WEEKEND. WITH THIS
SAID, TIMING DIFFERENCES REMAIN FOR THE FRONT WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR A LATER PASSAGE ON SATURDAY. DUE TO THIS, TEMPERATURES WITH
THE CURRENT NBM RUN REMAIN WARMER SATURDAY (IN THE UPPER 90S)
BEFORE COOLING TOWARD NORMAL ON SUNDAY, BUT TEMPS SUNDAY HAVE
TRENDED SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS AS WELL. CURRENT
TRENDS SUGGESTS TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL COULD PERSIST INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ISOLATED RAIN CHANCES.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
EARLY MORNING FOG AND STRATUS POSSIBLE IN THE EASTERN AND
SOUTHERN MIDLANDS.
RIDGING SHOULD LIMIT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE TODAY AND THURSDAY.
ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM IS POSSIBLE IT IS UNLIKELY
THAT THE TAF SITES WILL EXPERIENCE ANYTHING OTHER THAN DIURNAL
CUMULUS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE SE AROUND 5 TO 8 KTS
FROM 15Z TO 00Z EACH DAY WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OUTSIDE
THIS TIMEFRAME. SE LOW LEVEL WINDS TONIGHT WILL HELP PULL DEEPER
MOISTURE INTO SC OVERNIGHT. WITH A LLJ OF 10 TO 20 KTS, THIS
MAY FAVOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF STRATUS ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN
AROUND SUNRISE THURSDAY. THE INLAND EXTENT OF THE STRATUS
REMAINS UNCERTAIN WITH HIGHEST CHANCES OF RESTRICTIONS AT OGB.
SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY MORNING WE MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOP
BUT AGS APPEARS TO BE THE MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE MVFR VIS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CHANCES FOR RESTRICTIONS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE THIS WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...29
AVIATION...CJR
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