867
FXUS62 KCAE 252348
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
748 PM EDT TUE AUG 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED AVIATION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WITH INCREASING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
AS THE WEEK GOES ON.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WITH INCREASING
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS THE WEEK GOES ON.
OUTSIDE OF A FEW STORMS ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN MIDLANDS
TOWARDS THE COAST, CALM AND MOSTLY CLEAR WEATHER EXPECTED
TUESDAY EVENING. BY WEDNESDAY, MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
AS THE STALLED BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH MOVES BACK OVERHEAD. LREF
PROBABILITIES INDICATE A 50-70 PERCENT CHANCE OF PWAT VALUES
EXCEEDING 1.75 INCHES. LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL VEER TO THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST, ALLOWING DEWPOINTS AND AFTERNOON HUMIDITY TO
(UNFORTUNATELY) RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME LEVELS.
COMBINED WITH INCREASING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING AND MOISTENING
PROFILES, THIS SHOULD SUPPORT INCREASING CHANCES FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE OVERALL INCREASE
IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE, THOUGH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN TERMS OF
THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF MORE ROBUST CONVECTION. A WIDESPREAD
ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT APPEARS LOW; HOWEVER, STRONGER TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT EACH DAY.
DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL PRODUCING LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS. OVERALL, DAILY RAIN
CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN THE HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY RANGE THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK, WITH SOME DECREASE POSSIBLE
THIS WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN NEAR NORMAL, WHILE
INCREASING DEWPOINTS WILL BRING A RETURN TO MORE MUGGY
CONDITIONS.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS EVENING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO DOMINATE MOST OF THE FA. SCATTERED
STORMS ARE CURRENTLY BEING SEEN JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST THIS
EVENING, BUT NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS TO
INCREASE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT THE LOWEST 1000FT NEARLY
SATURATED WITH SOME GUIDANCE HINTING AT PATCHES OF LOW STRATUS
OR FOG MAINLY AFTER 08-10Z TONIGHT. DUE TO THE PATCHY NATURE, I
HAVE ONLY INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR MVFR/IFR CIGS FOR OUR
TYPICAL FOG PRONE SITES OF OGB AND AGS. HOWEVER, SOME
RESTRICTIONS COULD MOVE INTO TO OTHER SITES, SO TRENDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED OVERNIGHT. ANY RESTRICTIONS SHOULD
CLEAR BY 14-16Z WEDNESDAY WITH LIGHT EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS DEVELOPING ALONG WITH A SCT CUMULUS DECK. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, SO A PROB30 GROUP
HAS BEEN ADDED AT THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS EACH
AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...7/42
AVIATION...ND
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