819
FXUS62 KCAE 211129
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
729 AM EDT SAT MAR 21 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED FOR THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. ONLY A FEW STORMS EXPECTED MAINLY IN THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS
AND PEE DEE, LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT THESE
STORMS COULD BE STRONG-SEVERE.
- 2. WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE A FRONT MOVES IN NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: ONLY A FEW STORMS EXPECTED MAINLY IN THE
NORTHERN MIDLANDS AND PEE DEE, LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
BUT THESE STORMS COULD BE STRONG-SEVERE.
A LOW AMPLITUDE 500MB SHORTWAVE, CURRENTLY VISIBLE IN THE WATER
VAPOR ACROSS THE CENTRAL US, WILL DIVE THROUGH THE NORTHWEST
FLOW IN THE RIDGING ALOFT AND INTO OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON. AT
THE SURFACE, STRONG RIDGING TO OUR SOUTHWEST AND A WEAK TROUGH
TO OUR NORTH WILL HELP PRODUCE SOME CONVERGENCE ACROSS SC THIS
AFTERNOON AND WILL SERVE AS A SUBTLE INITIATION MECHANISM FOR
CONVECTION. WHILE LOW LEVEL DRY AIR IS PERVASIVE, ENOUGH SURFACE
HEATING, AND FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES ALOFT THANKS TO THE 500MB
SHORTWAVE, WILL PRODUCE A SWATH OF MIXED LAYER INSTABILITY
BETWEEN 500-750 J/KG ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN SC. WITH THIS
MEAGER INSTABILITY, FORCING THAT IS NOT REMARKABLE, AND DRY AIR
BELOW 700MB, CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED; THE
BEST CONFLUENCE OF SURFACE CONVERGENCE, MOISTURE AVAILABILITY,
AND INSTABILITY IS GENERALLY ALONG THE NC-SC, SO THIS IS WHERE
THE HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD OF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IS BETWEEN
400-900PM, ALBEIT STILL FAIRLY LOW. THE 00Z HREF WHICH LINES UP
BETTER WITH CURRENT OBS, HAS STEADILY WEAKENED AND SLOWED THE
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND THEREFORE REDUCED CONVECTIVE COVERAGE.
WHILE COVERAGE WILL NOT BE WIDESPREAD, THE INVERTED V SOUNDINGS
BELOW 700MB, MID- LEVEL MOISTURE THAT SHOULD PREVENT OVER-
ENTRAINMENT, AND NOTABLE UNIDIRECTIONAL CLOUD LAYER
NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR AROUND 30 KNOTS, DOES SUGGEST THAT ANY
INDIVIDUAL STORM COULD PRODUCE A SEVERE WIND- HAIL THREAT, HENCE
THE MARGINAL RISK OUTLOOK.
SO, ONLY A FEW STORMS ARE LIKELY, NORTH OF I-20 TOWARDS THE NC-
SC BORDER, BUT THESE STORMS WILL HAVE AN INCREASED SEVERE
POTENTIAL FROM ROUGHLY 400-900PM.
KEY MESSAGE 2: WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE A FRONT MOVES IN NEXT WEEK.
NO NOTABLE CHANGES IN THE FORECAST FOR LATE WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY-MONDAY AS UPPER RIDGING STRENGTHENS OVER
THE AREA. NAEFS MEAN CONTINUES TO INDICATE 850MB TEMPERATURES
RISE TO ABOVE THE 97.5TH OR 99TH PERCENTILE. WHILE NOT EXPECTED
TO REACH DAILY RECORDS THROUGH SUNDAY OR MONDAY, BLENDED
GUIDANCE INDICATES HIGHS WILL BE 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGE, GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. A MOSTLY DRY FRONT
WILL MOVE IN LATE MONDAY, LEADING TO TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO
SEASONAL AVERAGE FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, ALTHOUGH NOT A
PARTICULARLY COLD AIR MASS IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
FROST OR FREEZE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
GIVEN THE PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL DRY AIR AND NORTHWEST WINDS, WE
ARE ENTERING A PERIOD OF INCREASING FIRE DANGER CONCERNS GIVEN
THE LINGERING DROUGHT CONDITIONS. WIND SPEEDS HOWEVER ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS, WITH MAX WIND
GUSTS AROUND 20 MPH SUNDAY-TUESDAY.
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE 24HR FORECAST PERIOD.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING HIGH CLOUDS SPILLING DOWN THE EAST SIDE OF
AN UPPER RIDGE INTO THE AREA WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HAVE CONTINUED WITH MENTION OF LLWS AT CAE/CUB DUE TO
THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET AROUND 35 KNOTS. OTHERWISE
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BEGIN PICKING UP FROM THE WEST AT AROUND
10 KNOTS WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE AFTER THE
INVERSION BREAKS BY 15Z ALL TERMINALS. SOME LATE AFTERNOON
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN NC AND IN THE
UPSTATE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BUT IT APPEARS MOST OF THIS CONVECTION
SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE TERMINALS SO LEFT OUT ANY MENTION AT
THIS TIME UNTIL CONFIDENCE INCREASES. WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE TO 5
KNOTS OR LESS AFTER 00Z.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... A MORE SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH ON MONDAY, WITH A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE FOR RESTRICTIONS.
OVERALL, CONDITIONS WILL BE MOST LIKELY VFR FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION...CAL
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