121
FXUS62 KCAE 180028
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
828 PM EDT THU SEP 17 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 00Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. MOISTURE INCREASES HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT
WEEK, BRINGING RAIN CHANCES BACK TO THE AREA.
- 2. MORE SEASONABLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR RETURNS BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: MOISTURE INCREASES HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AND
INTO NEXT WEEK, BRINGING RAIN CHANCES BACK TO THE AREA.
AN UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. MEANWHILE,
AN UPPER LOW IS DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE RIDGE
IS FORECAST TO RETROGRADE WESTWARD, DRIVEN BY THE UPPER LOW
MOVING WESTWARD OVER FLORIDA AND INTO THE GULF. THIS WILL LEAVE
OUR AREA ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE. AS IT DOES,
MOISTURE ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO RAMP UP FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND. ENERGY MOVING AROUND THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER RIDGE
BRINGS INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING
FRIDAY AFTERNOON CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT
WEEK AS MOISTURE LINGERS. AT THE SURFACE, A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA, BUT STAYS JUST TO THE NORTH WORKING
WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO CREATE SHOWERS AND STORMS. SOME
LOCALIZED STORMS MAY BE SEVERE MAINLY WITH LOCALIZED WIND GUSTS
AND HEAVY RAINFALL. PW'S RANGE BETWEEN 1.6 AND 2 WITH STEEP LOW-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DOWNDRAFT CAPE AS HIGH AS 1,000 J/KG
AIDING IN LOCALIZED DOWNBURST WINDS. MAIN WINDOW IS IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS LINGERING
AFTER DARK. SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURN SATURDAY AFTERNOON, BUT
MOSTLY SUB- SEVERE. A RELATIVE LULL IN ACTIVITY REMAINS POSSIBLE
FOR SUNDAY. AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO, A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TODAY INTO TOMORROW BEFORE RETURNING TO
NEAR NORMAL AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 2: MORE SEASONABLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR RETURNS BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
BY MID-NEXT WEEK, AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IN THE 95TH PERCENTILE
WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW RETURNS
TO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH-PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO NEW ENGLAND PROMOTING NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE MOVES THROUGH BY MID-WEEK, BUT TIMING AND
INTENSITY OF THE FRONT IS UNCERTAIN. IT IS LIKELY HIGH
TEMPERATURES DROP TO THE LOW TO MID-80S WITH LOWS IN THE MID 60S,
BUT UNCERTAINTY EXISTS DUE TO THE LARGE SPREAD.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD.
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM WINDS. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HINT AT
SOME FOG DEVELOPING AT AGS, SO HAVE KEPT THE TEMPO GROUP GOING
FROM 08Z-11Z. AFTER SUNRISE, WINDS SHIFT TO GENERALLY WESTERLY
AROUND 5-7 KTS THROUGH ABOUT 18Z OR 19Z BEFORE BECOMING MORE
SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. A
CUMULUS FIELD WITH BASES AROUND THE 4-6 KFT RANGE IS EXPECTED TO
TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY AS WELL. A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS ARE
FORECAST TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING, BUT
COVERAGE IS ANTICIPATED TO BE SPARSE AND CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT
THE TERMINALS WILL BE AFFECTED AT THIS TIME.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. MORNING VSBY RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND AS WELL.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...NS
AVIATION...29
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