444
FXUS62 KCAE 160610
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
210 AM EDT TUE JUN 16 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ONSET OF PRECIPITATION TODAY HAS TRENDED LATER IN THE DAY.
PRECIP CHANCES HAVE LOWERED FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. AVIATION
DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 06Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE REST OF THE
WORK WEEK.
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
AND MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES MOVE OVER THE REGION. THIS PATTERN WILL
HELP EXPAND SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE INTO THE FORECAST
AREA, PARTICULARLY AS A WEAK SURFACE LOW ATTEMPTS TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY TUESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, LATEST
TRENDS SUGGEST THE PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THIS MOVES INTO THE
AREA LATER THAN PREVIOUS FORECASTS. THE LATEST GUIDANCE TRENDS
KEEP THE HIGHEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND PWATS GENERALLY SOUTH OF
THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK, KEEPING THE HIGHEST POPS (AND
BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDER) IN THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND LOCATIONS SOUTH. A RELATIVE LULL IN PRECIP
CHANCES THEN ARRIVES FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS THE MAJORITY
OF RAINFALL STAYS SOUTH OF THE AREA. INSTABILITY APPEARS
RELATIVELY WEAK, SO WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED
AT THIS TIME, BUT GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR, ANY STRONGER STORM IS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS.
LOOKING TO THE END OF THE WEEK, MOST DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE
REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DIVING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST WHILE A WEAK TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
DRIFTS ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW IS
EXPECTED TO LIFT INTO THE NORTHEAST ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY,
HELPING TO MAINTAIN A STALLED FRONT ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WARM BACK TO NEAR-NORMAL
BY MIDWEEK, WHILE HIGHER PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES LATE IN THE
WEEK AS MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE ON THE EVOLUTION OF
THE LOW IN THE GULF AS IT TRACKS INLAND ALONG THE STALLED FRONT.
THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO DEPICT A STRONGER AND SLOWER-MOVING
SYSTEM, WHILE THE GFS REMAINS FASTER WITH THE WAVE REACHING THE
AREA BY THURSDAY. REGARDLESS, INCREASING RAIN CHANCES APPEAR
LIKELY LATE IN THE WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL WINDS PULL MOISTURE FROM
THE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH AND EAST TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA. A
HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT AND ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER COULD BE
POSSIBLE FRIDAY, BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW FOR GREATER
DETAIL AT THIS TIME. BY THE WEEKEND, DRIER AIR SHOULD RETURN AS
THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EASTWARD.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 18Z THEN POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS
ARRIVE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.
A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY OVER THE AREA COMBINING WITH
INCREASINGLY MORE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SHOULD RESULT IN SOME
WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING
AROUND 12Z IN THE CSRA AND SOMEWHAT BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES. GENERALLY HIGH CLOUDS
OVER THE AREA WILL GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH THE PERIOD AS
MOISTURE INCREASES FROM SOUTH TO NORTH WITH LOW VFR CIGS
EXPECTED BY THIS AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS ARRIVING LATE
AFTERNOON, WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE
REGION AFTER 00Z. WILL KEEP A TEMPO GROUP FROM 18Z-00Z FOR
AFTERNOON CONVECTION. WINDS WILL PICK UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST
AFTER 14Z AND BECOME GUSTY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RELATIVELY HIGH CHANCES OF
RESTRICTIONS PREDAWN WEDNESDAY WITH DIURNALLY FAVORED
CONVECTION POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON. BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THU/FRI WITH INCREASED CHANCES OF RAIN AS A GULF COAST SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE AREA.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...29
AVIATION...23
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