205
FXUS62 KCAE 082342
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
742 PM EDT TUE SEP 8 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WITH CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON
STORMS THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WITH CHANCES FOR
AFTERNOON STORMS THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL
SLOWLY MOVE OFFSHORE TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK WHICH ALONG
WITH GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS WILL LEAD TO A WARMER CONDITIONS TOMORROW THROUGH THE END
OF THE PERIOD. BLENDED GUIDANCE FAVORING HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
90S AND LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW 70S. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASE LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND MAY PUSH HEAT INDICES TO
NEAR TRIPLE DIGITS BUT NOT EXPECTING TO NEAR HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA.
MOISTURE ALSO EXPECTED TO INCREASE TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK
AND WHILE RIDGING EXPECTED TO REMAIN STRONG OVER THE FORECAST
AREA A SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL LIKELY
PULL GULF MOISTURE INLAND LEADING TO RISING PWATS AND CHANCES
FOR AFTERNOON STORMS. THIS MOISTURE INCREASE HAS TRENDED A BIT
LATER AS ENSEMBLE MEANS FAVOR SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE PWATS FOR
MOST OF THE AREA ALONG WITH A STRONG WARM NOSE ALOFT WEDNESDAY
WHICH WILL LIKELY KEEP MOST OF THE AREA DRY. SCATTERED STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY, ALTHOUGH ONCE AGAIN FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE A CAPPING INVERSION MAY INHIBIT CONVECTION AS
700MB TEMPS LIKELY AROUND 10C. SUFFICIENT WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE
THIS WEEKEND ALONG WITH ENSEMBLE MEAN PWATS APPROACHING 150
PERCENT OF NORMAL WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SCATTERED TO POTENTIALLY
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
FAVORING THE AFTERNOONS. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN FORECAST
SOUNDINGS LOOK GENERALLY UNIMPRESSIVE LEADING TO LIMITED CONCERN
FOR SEVERE STORMS.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY.
FOR TONIGHT, WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND MAINLY
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED. INCREASING LOW AND MID LEVEL
MOISTURE COULD BRING SOME BROKEN STRATUS TO OGB AND PERHAPS
AGS/DNL BY MID-LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING, BUT CEILINGS SHOULD
REMAIN VFR BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE. A FEW SHOWERS COULD
DEVELOP TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD ACROSS THE EASTERN
MIDLANDS, BUT WILL LEAVE MENTION OUT OF THE OGB TAF UNTIL
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING/COVERAGE INCREASES.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...DRY THROUGH MID-WEEK BEFORE DIURNAL
STORM CHANCES RETURN IN THE LATER PART OF THE WEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...73/96
AVIATION...JAQ/7
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