045
FXUS62 KCAE 080515
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
115 AM EDT MON JUN 8 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 06Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. A TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN EXPECTED THIS WEEK WITH INCREASING
MOISTURE AND WARMING TEMPERATURES DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK
PERIOD.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: A TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN EXPECTED THIS WEEK WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE AND WARMING TEMPERATURES DURING THE MID TO
LATE WEEK PERIOD.
FOR TODAY AND TUESDAY, THE SURFACE RIDGING WILL SHIFT FAR
ENOUGH EAST TO ALLOW DEEPER MOISTURE TO PUSH INTO THE AREA. ON
MONDAY, THE PRIMARY PLUME OF 1.75"+ PWATS WILL STAY PRIMARILY
ACROSS GEORGIA, SO THE MAIN RAIN CHANCES ARE GENERALLY IN THE
CSRA. THIS PLUME OF HIGHER PWAT'S SHIFTS EAST BY TUESDAY AND
YIELDS HIGHER RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. SCATTERED
DAYTIME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE THEN EXPECTED EACH DAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH A FAIRLY TYPICALLY SUMMER
PATTERN IN PLACE. WITH THE RIDGE IN OUR VICINITY, SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL IS UNLIKELY. WHILE PWAT'S SHOULD CLIMB ABOVE 1.75", QPF
TOTALS ACROSS ALL GUIDANCE IS GENERALLY ONLY 0.25-0.75" WITH
SOME ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS IN AREAS THAT SEE REPEATED ROUNDS
OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE COMBINATION OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY COULD
RESULT IN OUR FIRST DAYS OF HEAT INDEX VALUES AT OR ABOVE 100
DEGREES ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, THOUGH STILL BELOW HEAT PRODUCT
CRITERIA.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND/OR
STORMS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. AGS MAY HAVE TO
DEAL WITH THEIR USUAL BRIEF PATCHY SHALLOW GROUND FOG AROUND
SUNRISE, BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO PLACE IN THAT TAF SITE AT
THIS TIME. ALL OTHER TAF SITES REMAIN VFR THROUGH SUNRISE.
EXPECT LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS FROM 5 TO 8 KT BY LATE MORNING
CONTINUING INTO THE AFTERNOON. A WEAK FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTH AND CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW FROM THE WEST COULD BRING AN ISOLATED
SHOWER/STORM TO THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IF A TAF
SITE IS IMPACTED, BRIEF RESTRICTIONS COULD BE POSSIBLE. WILL NOT
INCLUDE VCSH AT THIS TIME DUE TO LIMITED COVERAGE AROUND EACH TAF
SITE, BUT WILL CONTINUE WITH THE PROB30 FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FOR THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...DEEPER MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE
THROUGH THE WEEK LEADING TO SCATTERED, MAINLY DIURNAL, SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION...CAL
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