200
FXUS62 KCAE 140626
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
126 AM EST SAT FEB 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED. RAINFALL FORECAST FOR LATE WEEKEND
REMAINS ON TRACK, BUT TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS ARE TRENDING A BIT
LOWER.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) BENEFICIAL RAINFALL ON TRACK TO MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY MONDAY. GUIDANCE REMAINS
CONSISTENT WITH A GENERAL 0.5"-1.0" ACROSS THE AREA, AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER TOTALS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS.
- 2) POTENTIAL FOR WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS TAKING
SHAPE FOR LATE NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE #1: BENEFICIAL RAINFALL ON TRACK TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY MONDAY. GUIDANCE REMAINS
CONSISTENT WITH A GENERAL 0.5"-1.0" ACROSS THE AREA, AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER TOTALS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS.
THE MAIN FORECAST FEATURE OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS REMAINS THE
POTENTIAL FOR MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.
WITH NEAR TERM AND HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE BEGINNING TO COME INTO
PLAY, THE EXPECTATION REMAINS THAT A TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST AND ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHEAST BY SUNDAY.
THE SURFACE LOW SHOULD CONSOLIDATE AND DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. INITIALLY, ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL
DRIVE SHOWERS DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AHEAD OF
THE TROUGH AS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DRIVES PWATS OF 1"-1.25" OVER THE
AREA. AS THE TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW NEAR THE FORECAST AREA,
ADDITIONAL UPPER SUPPORT WILL PROMOTE THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE
TO AT TIMES HEAVY RAINFALL, PARTICULARLY ALONG THE WARM FRONT.
THIS WILL MAKE PRIME TIME FOR THE HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
LREF CLUSTERS THROUGH MONDAY EVENING DEPICT >50% PROBABILITIES
OF 0.75" OR HIGHER OF RAINFALL FOR LOCATIONS NORTH AND WEST OF
THE I-20 CORRIDOR. THE HIGHEST TOTALS ARE LIKELY TO BE IN THE
NORTHERN MIDLANDS, OR GENERALLY ALONG AND NEAR WHEREVER THE WARM
FRONT ENDS UP TRACKING. AS SUCH, FOR LANCASTER COUNTY THERE IS
ABOUT A 40% PROBABILITY FOR >1" OF RAINFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM.
FOR COMPARISON, THESE VALUES ARE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN 24 HOURS
AGO, SO THERE IS A TREND TO WATCH HERE AS THE EVENT NEARS. A
GOOD EXPECTATION IS AROUND 0.50" OF RAINFALL JUST ABOUT
EVERYWHERE, WITH THE TYPICAL LOCALIZED HIGHER AND LOWER
ACCUMULATIONS. THERE IS A LOW BUT NON-ZERO POTENTIAL FOR SOME
THUNDER AS CONVECTION TO OUR WEST DEVELOPS AND MOVES OVER THE
AREA SUNDAY EVENING. MOST GUIDANCE HAS THE RAIN ENDING FROM WEST
TO EAST, AND MOVING OUT OF THE AREA SOMETIME BETWEEN 06Z AND
12Z MONDAY MORNING.
WHILE THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING BENEFICIAL RAINFALL TO THE
MAJORITY OF THE AREA, WE ARE STILL QUITE A BIT BEHIND WHEN IT
COMES TO NORMAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO DATE, 2 TO 3 INCHES BELOW
NORMAL IN SOME LOCATIONS FOR BOTH THE CALENDAR AND WATER YEARS.
SO WHILE WE MAY MAKE AN INCREMENTAL IMPROVEMENT TO DROUGHT
CONDITIONS, WE STILL NEED TO SEE A LOT MORE RAINFALL TO CATCH UP
AND REDUCE THE DROUGHT CATEGORY.
KEY MESSAGE #2: POTENTIAL FOR WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS
TAKING SHAPE FOR LATE NEXT WEEK.
BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH, FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME
NORTHWESTERLY AS A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL TAKE HOLD OVER THE AREA THROUGH MIDWEEK WHILE HEIGHTS
AND THICKNESSES INCREASE. WHILE ITS TOO EARLY FOR SPECIFICS, THIS
PATTERN SEEMS TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES, PARTICULARLY FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD. BOTH THE ENS MEAN
AND NAEFS MEAN 700 MB TEMPS FOR WEDNESDAY, THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NEXT
WEEK ARE ABOVE THE 99.5 PERCENTILE ACROSS THE REGION, WHILE 850 MB
TEMPS ARE ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE DURING THE SAME PERIOD.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH
INCREASING CLOUD COVER AT THE END OF THE PERIOD.
HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO REMAIN OVERHEAD MUCH OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD WITH WINDS REMAINING LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM UNTIL
15-17Z, WHEN SOUTHERLY TO SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS PICK UP TO
AROUND 5 KTS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. CIRRUS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY, ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING
AND TO THE END OF THE PERIOD AS MOISTURE INCREASES, BUT VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD
BEFORE CEILINGS BEGIN TO LOWER INTO THE MORNING HOURS ON
SUNDAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY DEVELOP IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SUNDAY, CONTINUING
THROUGH THE DAY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM BRINGS WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE
REGION. RESTRICTIONS MAY REMAIN INTO EARLY MONDAY BEFORE DRIER
AIR MOVES IN AND VFR CONDITIONS RETURN.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...10
AVIATION...17
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