571
FXUS62 KCAE 030000
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
800 PM EDT FRI OCT 2 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 00Z
TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA LEADING TO INCREASING CHANCES
FOR RAIN AND COOLER TEMPS THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
INCREASING CONCERN FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.
DISCUSSION
.KEY MESSAGE 1: FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA LEADING TO INCREASING CHANCES
FOR RAIN AND COOLER TEMPS THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK
INCREASING CONCERN FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.
HIGH PRESSURE HAS SHIFTED OFFSHORE WITH UPPER RIDGING CONTINUING
OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. WHILE THERE HAS BEEN A
MODEST MOISTURE INCREASE IN THE LOW LEVELS, EVIDENT BY DEW
POINTS AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY, MUCH OF
THIS INCREASE REMAINS SHALLOW WITH 12Z SOUNDING OUT OF CHS
SHOWING DRY AIR PERSISTING IN THE MID LEVELS. WHILE SOME LIGHT
TO MODERATE SHOWERS ARE MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA, CAPPING AND DRY AIR ALOFT WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE THROUGH THIS EVENING.
AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS OFFSHORE INTO TONIGHT, MORE
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE INCREASE IS EXPECTED WITH SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW DEVELOPING ALOFT. HREF MEAN INDICATES PWATS WILL RISE TO
ABOVE 2 INCHES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA, CLOSER TO 2.2 INCHES
NEAR THE COASTAL PLAIN. THIS AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IS UNUSUAL FOR
OCTOBER AS THE NAEFS IS AT THE 99TH PERCENTILE. THIS WILL LEAD
TO WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVERAGE AND CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS
IN THE MORNING, ALTHOUGH FORCING WILL BE GENERALLY WEAK SO ANY
SHOWERS WILL LIKELY REMAIN LIGHT. WHILE INSTABILITY WILL
GENERALLY BE WEAK WITH BLENDED GUIDANCE INDICATION PROBABILITY
OF SBCAPE GREATER THAN 1000 J/KG AROUND 20 PERCENT OR LESS. AS A
RESULT, STORM COVERAGE MAY BE SOMEWHAT ISOLATED, WITH SEVERE
STORMS UNLIKELY AND MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN THE MAIN THREAT.
HEAVIEST WILL LIKELY BE ALONG THE AXIS OF THE APPROACHING
BOUNDARY WHICH HIGHER RESOLUTION GUIDANCE GENERALLY FAVORS IN
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA, ALTHOUGH THE EXACT LOCATION FOR
HEAVIEST RAIN AXIS REMAINS UNCERTAIN. TRENDS ARE LEANING TOWARDS
ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20 WITH THE HEAVIEST RAIN SETTING UP FROM
EAST TO WEST. STRONG CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AND MAY LEAD TO SOME GENERAL
FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS INTO THE DAY ON SUNDAY WHEN UPPER LEVEL
FORCING STRENGTHENS AS A ROBUST SHORTWAVE LIKELY MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA. COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE MORE SCATTERED SATURDAY AND
WIDELY SCATTERED SUNDAY EVENING WITH THE BULK OF THE RAIN LIKELY
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WITH MOISTURE ANOMALOUSLY HIGH, THE MOST
LIKELY SCENARIO THIS WEEKEND IS WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS
GREATER THAN 2 INCHES, WITH BLENDED PROBABILITIES OF 60-70
PERCENT. HREF LPMM INDICATES THIS HIGHER AXIS OF GREATER THAN 3
INCHES WITH LOCALIZED SPOTS OF EVEN HIGHER AMOUNTS. DRIER AIR
WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH MONDAY WITH THE AXIS OF
HEAVIER RAIN SHIFTING SOUTHWARD AS AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE
NORTHEAST. MODELS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN FAVORING DRIER AIR INTO
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL THIS EVENING, THOUGH A FEW
SHOWERS COULD BRIEFLY LOWER VSBYS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
DEVELOP SATURDAY WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR RESTRICTIONS.
INCREASING CLOUDS WITH CIGS AROUND 8-10KFT MSL DEVELOPING THIS
EVENING. ISOLATED -SHRA ARE POSSIBLE, BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS
TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS. A HEAVIER SHOWER MAY BRIEFLY
REDUCE VSBYS. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD, AND SOME MVFR RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING, THOUGH WIDESPREAD IMPACTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
BE AS SIGNIFICANT AS IN PREVIOUS NIGHTS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN
COVERAGE THROUGHOUT THE DAY SATURDAY AS CIGS DECREASE, AND
PERIODIC MVFR CIGS RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE. FOR NOW, PROB30
GROUPS HAVE BEEN ADDED BETWEEN 12-18Z FOR -SHRA. PREVAILING -SHRA
IS THEN MORE LIKELY SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. WINDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOULD BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR SLY/SWLY
AROUND 7 KTS OR LESS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND MAY LEAD TO RESTRICTIONS.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...NS
AVIATION...EC
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