154
FXUS62 KCAE 160022
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
822 PM EDT TUE SEP 15 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION UPDATED FOR 00Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL USHER IN DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
AIR THROUGH THE MIDDLE TO END OF THIS WEEK.
- 2. INCREASING MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES BY THE END OF THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL USHER IN DRIER AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR THROUGH THE MIDDLE TO END OF THIS WEEK.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH IN THE PATTERN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. EXTREME 500 HPA RIDGE REMAINS SETTLED OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN US, WITH NAEFS AND LREF 500 HPA HEIGHTS AT THE
100TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. DESPITE THIS, OUR
WEATHER LOOKS QUITE PLEASANT THROUGH FRIDAY OWING TO A BACKDOOR
FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH LAST NIGHT. HIGHS LOOK CLOSER TO
NORMAL- IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S - OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
BUT THE HUMIDITY WILL BE THE MAJOR STORY. BELOW NORMAL PWS,
PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE, AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WILL RESULT IN FAIRLY
ROBUST MIXING OF THE DRY AIRMASS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS.
AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS WED/THUR ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 50S,
AND THIS DRY AIRMASS WILL FOSTER LOWS EACH MORNING IN THE 60S!
IT WILL BE A BRIEF REPRIEVE BUT A WELL DESERVED ONE NONETHELESS.
KEY MESSAGE 2: INCREASING MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES BY THE END
OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE PERSISTENT UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN BY THE
WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA FROM NORTH
SATURDAY. A WEAK INVERTED UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO RETROGRADE
BENEATH THE UPPER RIDGE AND INTO THE NORTHERN GULF BY THE
WEEKEND. THE COMBINATION OF THESE TWO THINGS WILL LEAD TO AN
INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW, WITH LREF MEMBERS ALL
SHOWING 75TH-85TH PERCENTILE PWS ARRIVING BACK IN THE AREA BY
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE INVERTED TROUGH IS LIKELY TO SLOWLY LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH A SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING
COLD FRONT LEADING TO UNSETTLED WEATHER LIKELY TO RETURN AS A
RESULT.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE 24HR FORECAST
PERIOD.
DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO THE REGION WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. STRONG UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING OVERHEAD SHOULD KEEP THE WEATHER QUIET WITH A STRONG
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IN PLACE. LIMITED MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH
THE INVERSION MAY RESULT IN PATCHY FOG FAVORING RIVER LOCATIONS
SO INCLUDED SOME MVFR VSBYS WITH A TEMPO TO IFR VSBYS AT AGS 08Z
TO 12Z. ELSEWHERE VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST WITH LIGHT TO
NEAR CALM WINDS THROUGH SUNRISE BEFORE WINDS PICK UP FROM THE
EAST AROUND 5 TO 7 KNOTS ALL TERMINALS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RAIN AND RESTRICTIONS UNLIKELY FOR
MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
THIS WEEKEND.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...NS
AVIATION...23
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