570
FXUS62 KCAE 201745
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
145 PM EDT SAT JUN 20 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 18Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN RETURNS THIS WEEKEND
INTO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN RETURNS THIS
WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MAINLY CIRRIFORM CLOUDS
PASSING THROUGH THE MIDLANDS, WITH SOME THICKER CLOUDINESS
APPROACHING THE CSRA. A FEW SHOWERS ARE STARTING TO DEVELOP
SOUTH OF MIDVILLE, GEORGIA SO HAVE MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE
POP FOR THE NEXT SIX HOURS ACROSS SOUTHERN BURKE COUNTY. RAIN IS
NOT LIKELY ELSEWHERE TODAY. TEMPERATURES ARE ON TRACK TO REACH
THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES BUT WITH DRIER AIR IN PLACE,
THIS SHOULD BE A PLEASANT DAY TO BE OUTSIDE.
EXPECT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO CREEP BACK INTO THE FORECAST AREA
ON SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER DAY WITH
HIGHER HEAT AND HUMIDITY. DESPITE THE HIGHER PWATS, THE CHANCE
FOR RAIN REMAINS LOW RIGHT NOW WITH SOME A BRIEF WINDOW FOR
CONVECTION ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN MIDLANDS IN THE HOLLY
HILL AREA. OVERALL, ANOTHER DRY DAY IS FAVORED FOR MOST
LOCATIONS.
THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK IS EXPECTED TO FEATURE CONTINUED SUMMER-
LIKE WEATHER CONDITIONS. EACH DAY WILL BE HOT AND HUMID WITH
DAILY CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE DAY 3 SPC SWO PLACED THE NORTHWESTERN HALF
OF THE CWA IN A MARGINAL (1/5) RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON MONDAY
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE FA. SHOULD ORGANIZED CONVECTION
DEVELOP, DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD.
LATE NEXT WEEK, A STRONGER UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO
BUILD OVER THE FOUR CORNERS, PROMOTING BROADER TROUGHING ACROSS
THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS PATTERN MAY SUPPORT A MORE ORGANIZED
WEATHER SYSTEM AFFECTING THE AREA, THOUGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW
REGARDING TIMING AND EVOLUTION.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
SURFACE FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTH OF ALL TAF LOCATIONS, WITH EAST/
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS BRINGING SOME DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS
HAS KEPT MOST MID AND LOWER CLOUDS CONFINED OUTSIDE OF OUR FORECAST
AREA TODAY, WITH MAINLY JUST SOME THIN SCATTERED TO BROKEN CIRRUS
PASSING THROUGH THE AREA. BEING A LITTLE CLOSER TO SOME DEEPER
MOISTURE, THE CSRA SITES OF AGS/DNL MAY SEE SOME SCATTERED MID-LEVEL
CUMULUS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING AT ALL SITES, WHICH
SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE DRY LOW-LEVEL AIR IN PLACE. WINDS WILL
TURN MORE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER SUNSET AND INTO SUNDAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...DIURNALLY DRIVEN ISOLATED CONVECTION TO
RETURN SUNDAY AFTERNOON, MAINLY OVER THE CSRA. BETTER RAIN CHANCES
AND COVERAGE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER APPROACHING FRONT.
AFTER THAT, A RETURN TO MORE SUMMER-LIKE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED, WITH RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
WITH ANY ACTIVITY THROUGH THE PERIOD.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...7
AVIATION...73
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