880
FXUS62 KCAE 292326
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
726 PM EDT TUE SEP 29 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
LOWERED DEWPOINTS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, MINIMAL
CHANGES. AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 00Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. DRY CONDITIONS WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH FRIDAY.
- 2. RAIN CHANCES MAY ENTER LATE IN THE WEEK THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: DRY CONDITIONS WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.
THE FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY UNCHANGED AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AT THE SURFACE,
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT OFFSHORE THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK, ALLOWING FOR A GRADUAL RETURN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW AND
INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS BY THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. OVERALL, THIS PATTERN WILL SUPPORT DAILY HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S THROUGH AT LEAST
FRIDAY, WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUING. IT IS WORTH
NOTING THAT MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING THROUGH THE WEEK,
BUT DEEPER ADVECTION OFF THE GULF IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL THIS
WEEKEND.
KEY MESSAGE 2: RAIN CHANCES MAY ENTER LATE IN THE WEEK THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND.
THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW QUICKLY A BROAD
TROUGH SHIFTS INTO THE NORTHEAST LATER THIS WEEK. AT THE
SURFACE, A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION AND COULD STALL
NEARBY BEFORE A SHORTWAVE EVENTUALLY PUSHES THE FRONT THROUGH BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS IS EVIDENT IN A WIDE SPREAD OF HIGH
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. LONG RANGE GUIDANCE HAS
CONTINUED TO TREND TOWARD A SLOWER ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT, WITH
THE GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS NOW HOLDING OFF ON WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL UNTIL SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY. IN THE MEANTIME,
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
STARTING FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS LREF PROBABILITIES FOR
PWATS GREATER THAN 2" REACH 50-70% AMID SUBTLE FORCING. THE
EXACT TIMING THIS WEEKEND STILL REMAINS UNCERTAIN REGARDING THE
TROUGH, BUT INCREASING RAIN CHANCES SHOULD BRING TEMPERATURES
BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ALSO HINTS AT
ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK,
POTENTIALLY BRINING ANOTHER PERIOD OF DAMP, CLOUDY, AND COOL
CONDITIONS TO THE FA.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE 24HR TAF PERIOD, WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF GROUND FOG AT AGS AND OGB OVERNIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR HAS LED TO A CONTINUATION OF THE
BEAUTIFUL, QUIET WEATHER THAT WE HAVE EXPERIENCED FOR SEVERAL
DAYS NOW. LIGHT WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME PREDOMINANTLY
SOUTHEASTERLY WEDNESDAY, WITH MOISTURE BEGINNING TO SLOWLY BUT
SURELY INCREASE AS WE GO THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND. WHILE
THIS MAY NOT BE NOTICEABLE EVERYWHERE, THE SLIGHT INCREASE IN
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE, COUPLED WITH CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES,
COULD YIELD IFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AT THE AGS/OGB SITES BY
SUNRISE ON WEDNESDAY. IT DOESN'T LOOK PREDOMINANT BY ANY STRETCH
BUT THERE COULD BE PERIODS OF 1-2SM VISIBILITIES IN THESE FOG
PRONE SITES. ASIDE FROM THIS, THE PERIOD LOOKS CLEAR AND QUIET.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING
CHANCES OF PREDAWN STRATUS/FOG LATER THIS WEEK WITH INCREASING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. INCREASING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION THIS
WEEKEND.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...NS
AVIATION...PL
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