931
FXUS62 KCAE 311042
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
642 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY THIS WEEKEND BRINGS CHANCES FOR
RAIN BACK TO THE AREA, BUT HIGHEST AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE TO OUR
WEST. AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 12Z.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
- 2. RAIN CHANCES RAMP BACK UP THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN RETURNS.
DISCUSSION
- 1. DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
A SURFACE HIGH LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION IS
FORECAST TO DRIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY TODAY, ALLOWING DRY
AIR TO REMAIN OVER OUR AREA. PWATS OF UNDER AN INCH HAVE MOVED
THEIR WAY INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MIDLANDS. EXPECT PWATS
TO REMAIN NEAR AN INCH THROUGH THE DAY. DEW POINTS ARE FORECAST
TO BE SIMILAR TO THURSDAY, WITH AFTERNOON VALUES DROPPING TO THE
MID TO UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. AS A RESULT, ANOTHER MILD LATE-
JULY DAY IS IN STORE FOR THE AREA.
- 2. RAIN CHANCES RAMP BACK UP THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN RETURNS.
AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARD THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND INTO
NEXT WEEK. AS THEY DO, MOISTURE INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY,
ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS PWATS ARE FORECAST TO
TOP THE 2" MARK. HOWEVER, GUIDANCE KEEPS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO
THE WEST, KEEPING A MAIN TRIGGER FOR FOCUSED PRECIPITATION TO
OUR WEST AS WELL. ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES KEEP RELATIVELY LOW
(~10-20% DEPENDING ON MODEL SUITE) CHANCES OF GREATER THAN 2" OF
RAIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THAT SAID, WITH THE HIGH PWATS AND
SOUTHWEST FLOW, WILL NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE LOCALIZED AMOUNTS
OVER 2" AS ANY ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD BE EFFICIENT RAIN
MAKERS. AFTER THE WEEKEND, MORE TYPICAL DIURNALLY DRIVEN
ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH MIDWEEK AS RESIDUAL MOISTURE
HANGS AROUND THE AREA.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING SOME HIGHER CLOUDS MOVING OVER THE
AREA DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE TO OUR WEST. WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE REGION SHOULD KEEP FAIR WEATHER
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS LESS THAN
5 KNOTS. HIGHER CLOUDS MAY INTERMITTENTLY REMAIN OVER THE REGION
WITH SOME DIURNAL CUMULUS BUT VFR CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. CARRYING VARIABLE WIND DIRECTION GIVEN THE LIGHT NATURE
OF THE WIND BUT IT COULD VARY FROM EASTERLY THROUGH
SOUTHWESTERLY AT TIMES. PREDAWN FOG/STRATUS NOT EXPECTED
ALTHOUGH IT CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHIFT
MORE SOUTHEASTERLY OVERNIGHT. SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE HIGHER
CONFIDENCE FOR RESTRICTIONS WITH SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE RETURN.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RAIN AND RESTRICTIONS BECOME
INCREASINGLY LIKELY THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...29
AVIATION...23
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