691
FXUS62 KCAE 120057
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
857 PM EDT FRI SEP 11 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED KEY MESSAGE TO REMOVE MENTION OF EARLIER CONDITIONS AND
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 00Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LAST INTO NEXT WEEK WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LAST INTO NEXT WEEK WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH SATURDAY.
A SLOW MOVING TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL CONUS IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE WEST, WITH RICH MOISTURE
ADVECTING NORTHWARD INTO THE FA AS A RESULT. PWS ARE NEAR 2"
ALREADY, WITH >2" PWS EXPECTED INTO SATURDAY. WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPS
FORECAST IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S AGAIN SATURDAY, ALONG WITH
THE MODEST FORCING FROM THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND PLENTY OF
INSTABILITY, SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
LIKELY REOCCUR SATURDAY AFTERNOON. DCAPE AND TEI VALUES ARE PRETTY
LOW FOR STRONG DOWNBURSTS, AND PRECIP LOADING APPEARS TO BE THE
LIKELY CULPRIT FOR ANY STRONGER STORMS. BY SATURDAY, THE AXIS WILL
SHIFT MORE INTO THE UPSTATE AND WESTERN MIDLANDS WITH BETTER FORCING
AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE MODULATED
BY CONVECTIVE COVERAGE.
BEGINNING SUNDAY, A RIDGE ALOFT IS FORECAST TO BEGIN BUILDING
EASTWARD AND SHIFTING THE TROUGH AXIS TO OUR EAST. PRECIP
CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AS A RESULT, WITH ONLY
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE EXPECTED. THE RIDGE IS THEN
FORECAST TO CONTINUE BUILDING INTO THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK, WITH EXTREME 500 HPA HEIGHTS (NAEFS FORECAST MAX
HEIGHTS IN THE SEPTEMBER 1979-2009 CLIMATOLOGY!) SET UP ACROSS
THE REGION. ONE OF THE INTERESTING THINGS THAT MAY RESULT FROM
THE INTENSITY OF THE RIDGE IS A SERIES OF STRONG TROUGHS PUSHING
EASTWARD ATOP IT INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS. TYPICALLY, THIS
WOULDN'T MEAN A TON CONSIDERING THE ROBUSTNESS OF THIS UPPER
RIDGE. HOWEVER, STRONG CONVERGENCE ON THE BACKSIDES OF THESE
TROUGHS IS FORECAST TO YIELD AN ANOMALOUS SURFACE HIGH SETTLING
INTO THE NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC BY TUESDAY, PUSHING A
BACKDOOR FRONT THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. SO MONDAY, AHEAD
OF SAID FRONT, WILL LIKELY BE WARM AS WE GET THE COMBINATION OF
RISING HEIGHTS AND COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
FRONT. BUT BEHIND THAT FRONT, WHILE TEMPS DON'T LOOK COOL BY
ANY STRETCH, THEY LIKELY WON'T BE PARTICULARLY HOT EITHER WITH
RESPECT TO HOW STRONG THE RIDGE WILL BE. SURFACE DEWPOINTS ALSO
LOOK TO DROP, HELPING MAKE THE AIRMASS MORE PALATABLE. SO THIS
BACKDOOR FRONT WILL LIKELY HELP STEM THE TIDE OF THE ROBUST
500MB HEIGHTS AND KEEP TEMPS FROM APPROACHING RECORDS.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. BRIEF
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AGAIN EARLY SATURDAY.
SCATTERED -SHRA AND A FEW -TSRA WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS THIS EVENING. LINGERING DEBRIS CLOUDINESS IS LIKELY
THROUGH THE NIGHT AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE. THERE IS
GENEROUS SPREAD ACROSS MODEL GUIDANCE REGARDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF
FOG/STRATUS TONIGHT. GIVEN PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE AND
RAINFALL FROM EARLIER TODAY, AT LEAST PATCHY CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS
SEEM PLAUSIBLE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. AS ANY STRATUS LIFTS THROUGH
THE MORNING, MVFR CEILINGS COULD BE SEEN BEFORE GIVING WAY TO VFR
CUMULUS EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD PICK BACK UP OUT OF
THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AT LESS THAN 10 KTS. ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED
-SHRA/-TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD, WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR RESTRICTIONS AT ALL TERMINALS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. THE
POTENTIAL FOR EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS PERSISTS THIS WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...42/EC
AVIATION...DH/EC
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