036
FXUS62 KCAE 311806
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
206 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
KEY MESSAGES REMAIN THE SAME AS THE FORECAST FOR THIS WEEK IS ON
TRACK. AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR THE 18Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. WARMING TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING RAINFALL CHANCES
THROUGH THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: WARMING TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING RAINFALL CHANCES
THROUGH THE WEEK.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN THE FORECAST OVER THE COMING DAYS AS THERE
IS LITTLE SPREAD AMONGST MODEL GUIDANCE REGARDING THE PATTERN
EVOLUTION. STRONG BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE
THE REGION FROM THE ATLANTIC, WITH PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW
LEADING TO AN INCREASE IN SURFACE MOISTURE. ALOFT, THE RIDGE
AXIS IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ABOVE THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS THROUGH
SATURDAY, AMPLIFYING AS A DEEP TROUGH APPROACHES THE GREAT
LAKES/NORTHEASTERN CONUS BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ALL OF THIS TO
SAY, OUR WEATHER IS FORECAST TO BE RELATIVELY QUIET. WE ARE
LOOKING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWERS/STORMS, WITH THE BEST CHANCE BEING FRIDAY AS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES ALONG WITH AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH
APPROACHING AS WELL. AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON SUNDAY,
SHOWER/STORM CHANCES SHOULD BE GREATER AS WELL. OVERALL, TEMPS
LOOK 10-15F ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH SUNDAY, WITH TEMPS CLOSER TO
NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK BEHIND THE FRONT.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE TAF PERIOD.
SOME CUMULUS CLOUDS DEVELOPING BELOW A MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK
AROUND 3KFT. THERE REMAINS A LOW POSSIBILITY OF BRIEF MVFR
CEILINGS DEVELOPING BUT PROBABILITY WILL LESSEN HEADING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING. WINDS REMAIN OUT OF THE
SSW THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BETWEEN 5 TO 10 KNOTS. TONIGHT
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE AND WHILE MODEL CONSENSUS
KEEPS STRATUS AWAY FROM THE TERMINALS, THERE REMAINS A LOW
CHANCE OF CEILING RESTRICTIONS DEVELOPING, ESPECIALLY AT
ORANGEBURG.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SOME MORNING STRATUS IS POSSIBLE EACH
MORNING BY MID-WEEK AS MOISTURE INCREASES. INCREASING CHANCES
FOR DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...PL
AVIATION...96
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page