103
FXUS62 KCAE 040005
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
805 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. HEAT INDEX VALUES FROM 105 TO 110 POSSIBLE SATURDAY.
- 2. SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1. HEAT INDEX VALUES FROM 105 TO 110 POSSIBLE
SATURDAY.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SHIFTS TO THE WEST LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO
THE WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR NW DOWNSLOPE FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH. MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WITH PWAT VALUES NEARING OR EXCEEDING THE 90TH
PERCENTILE OF THE NAEFS CLIMATOLOGY. THE WARM, MOIST AIR MASS
AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL PUSH HEAT INDEX VALUES TO NEAR 110
DURING THE AFTERNOON ASSUMING STORMS HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER IN THE
DAY AS CURRENTLY EXPECTED. IF THIS HOLDS, A HEAT ADVISORY MAY
BE NEEDED FOR SATURDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2. SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR
EVENING.
AS THE UPPER RIDGING RETROGRADES TO THE WEST A NW FLOW PATTERN
ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO DIG INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL TRIGGER CONVECTION IN
THE WARM, MOIST AIR MASS UPSTREAM OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE
CONCERN IS THAT AS STORMS PUSH SOUTH AND EAST IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THAT STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DRY MID-LEVEL
AIR WILL FAVOR DAMAGING WINDS. THE PROGRESSION OF THE STORMS AND
THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE
SOMETHING TO MONITOR OVER THE COMING DAYS.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH THE COLD FRONT
FORECAST TO BE OVER THE SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY WE CAN EXPECT AT
LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH MOISTURE STILL
IN PLACE AND SOME SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY MOVING THROUGH THE TROUGH.
HOWEVER, WITH LAPSE RATES NOT AS STRONG AS SATURDAY, THE THREAT
OF SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD BE LOW. NEXT WEEK IS EXPECTED TO YIELD
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH CONTINUING AT LEAST ISOLATED
CHANCES FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION. THIS COMES AS THE FRONT SLOWLY
CLEARS THE AREA AND TROUGHING PERSISTS BEFORE THE RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SLIDE BACK IN MID WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH NEAR SUNRISE
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AND CONTINUING INTO
TONIGHT LEADING TO MODEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASE ACROSS THE
AREA. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND TOWARDS THE POTENTIAL FOR
RESTRICTIONS AT ALL TERMINALS NEAR DAYBREAK, MAINLY FROM LOW
CEILINGS, ALTHOUGH SOME VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
AS WELL. THERE REMAINS A QUESTION WHETHER THE CLOUDS THAT
DEVELOP, WHICH WILL LIKELY BE BELOW 1000 FEET, WILL BE HIGH
ENOUGH IN COVERAGE TO LEAD TO CEILINGS OR REMAIN SCATTERED.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST IN AT LEAST A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CEILINGS
AT ALL TERMINALS. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN MID TO LATE
MORNING THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL REMAIN
OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST TOMORROW.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CHANCES FOR RESTRICTIONS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE THIS WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CJR
AVIATION...96
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