445
FXUS62 KCAE 151707
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
107 PM EDT SAT AUG 15 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
HEAT ADVISORY EXTENDED THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. SCATTERED STORMS
WITH SOME STRONG POSSIBLE TODAY AND TOMORROW. AVIATION
DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 18Z UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. THE HIGH HEAT AND HUMIDITY CONTINUES WITH TEMPERATURES
LIKELY PEAKING ON MONDAY.
- 2. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION
EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
1. THE HIGH HEAT AND HUMIDITY CONTINUES WITH TEMPERATURES
LIKELY PEAKING ON MONDAY.
THE HIGH HEAT AND HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE
EARLY PART OF THE WORK WEEK DESPITE WEAKENING UPPER RIDGING.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD GENERALLY RISE INTO
THE MID-90S WHICH AND COMBINE WITH HIGH HUMIDITY TO PRODUCE MAX
HEAT INDEX VALUES BETWEEN 105 AND 110 IN MOST LOCATIONS. A FEW
LOCATIONS COULD SEE A HEAT INDEX OVER 110 TODAY. TEMPERATURES
COULD BE SLIGHTLY COOLER SUNDAY, THUS HEAT INDEX VALUES COULD BE
SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN TODAY AS WELL. HOWEVER, VALUES ARE STILL
EXPECTED TO FLIRT WITH OUR CRITERIA OF 108 TOMORROW. THAT ALONG
WITH THE FACT THAT THIS HAS BEEN A PROLONGED STRETCH OF
ABNORMALLY HOT CONDITIONS, DECIDED TO EXTEND THE HEAT ADVISORY
THROUGH 8 PM SUNDAY. ON MONDAY, MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS
ANOMALOUSLY HIGH 850MB TEMPERATURES PERHAPS EXCEEDING 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL YIELDING SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S AND
LOWER 100S. THE HUMIDITY IS UNLIKELY TO RELENT MEANING ANOTHER
DAY OF DANGEROUS HEAT INDEX VALUES TO START THE NEW WORK WEEK.
A TROUGH DURING THE MID TO LATE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK MAY FINALLY
BREAK THE THREAT OF EXTREME HEAT WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
CLOSER TO SEASONAL VALUES. THE BOTTOM LINE IS WHETHER YOU ARE
OUTDOORS FOR WORK OR PLAY, CONTINUE TO TAKE APPROPRIATE
PRECAUTIONS AND LIMIT TIME IN DIRECT SUNLIGHT DURING PEAK
HEATING HOURS.
2. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION
EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND.
THE FLATTENING RIDGE SHOULD RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS THIS WEEKEND.
AS HAS BEEN THE CASE DURING THE LAST FEW DAYS, ANY ROBUST
CONVECTION HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THE
LACK OF WINDS ALOFT MEANS THAT LOCALIZED FLOODING IS ALSO
POSSIBLE, PRIMARILY IF RAIN FALLS OVER NORMALLY FLOOD PRONE
AREAS. GUIDANCE HAS KEPT THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION LOW ON
MONDAY AND THIS APPEARS TO BE DUE TO THE HIGHLY ANOMALOUS 850MB
TEMPERATURES MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS SECTION. THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN SUFFICIENT CAPPING OVER THE FORECAST AREA FOR MONDAY,
WITH ANY RAIN ARRIVING TOWARDS EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST POTENTIALLY ERODING THE CAP. MORE TYPICAL
AUGUST RAIN CHANCES ARE THEN ANTICIPATED, PERHAPS INCREASING
DURING THE MID TO LATE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK WHEN A TROUGH MAY
SET UP OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY OUTSIDE OF SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
TYPICAL SUMMER CUMULUS HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA WITH LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS, GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.
SCATTERED CONVECTION IS ONCE AGAIN DEVELOPING, WITH COVERAGE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE BETWEEN 18Z-00Z. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
BE SOMEWHAT MORE WIDESPREAD THAN IN PREVIOUS DAYS; HOWEVER, A
PROB30 GROUP FOR -TSRA WAS MAINTAINED AT ALL SITES. A TEMPO OR
PREDOMINANT GROUP MAY BE NEEDED AS CONFIDENCE INCREASES.
ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
FOG/STRATUS ONCE AGAIN DEPENDENT ON RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND
COVERAGE. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY, WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS GENERALLY FROM THE WEST-SOUTWEST. TYPICAL
AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...DIURNAL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR SCZ036-018-020>022-
025>031-035-037-038-041-115-116-135>137. GA...HEAT ADVISORY
UNTIL 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR GAZ040-063>065-077.
DISCUSSION...29
AVIATION...ND
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page