790
FXUS62 KCAE 230551
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
151 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED KEY MESSAGE REFLECTING THE LATEST PRECIPITATION TRENDS
THIS MORNING AND WARMING TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND. AVIATION
DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 06Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN EXPECTED THIS WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN EXPECTED THIS
WEEK.
A TROUGH DIGGING DOWN INTO THE SOUTHEAST CONTINUES TO MOVE
THROUGH OUR AREA THIS MORNING. AS THE MAIN FRONT PASSES
OVERHEAD, A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY REDEVELOP
NEAR DAYBREAK, MAINLY NORTH OF I-20. HOWEVER, WITHOUT UPPER-
LEVEL SUPPORT, ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN MINIMAL WITH A LIMITED
SEVERE THREAT AS WELL. WINDS WILL ALSO BE QUITE GUSTY
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS HEIGHTS FALL BEHIND THE FRONT. THE
BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO STALL AND LINGER JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA
THROUGH THE WEEK. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT DEEPER WESTERLY FLOW
WILL BRING IN DRIER AIR, LIMITING OVERALL COVERAGE TO MAINLY
SPOTTY POP-UP ACTIVITY.
BRIEF DRYING IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AS NORTHWEST FLOW BRINGS IN
COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER. BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK, A
WEAKNESS DEVELOPING IN THE UPPER TROUGH SPLITS THE RIDGE OVER
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND WESTERN ATLANTIC, SUPPORTING A RETURN
OF DIURNAL CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO TREND UPWARD INTO
THIS WEEKEND, AS RIDGING RESTRENGTHENS AND DOMINATES ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE
90S WITH SOME GLOBAL MODELS HINTING AT UPPER 90S EARLY NEXT
WEEK. HEAT INDICES COULD ALSO SURPASS THE 100 DEGREE MARK.
WHILE DETAILS REMAIN UNCERTAIN, HEAT HEADLINES MAY BECOME
NECESSARY FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH
AFTERNOON MIXING OCCURS.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY IN PLACE AT ALL TERMINALS WITH WINDS
OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 KNOTS. A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH
GEORGIA IS LEADING TO A LINE OF SHOWERS THAT CONTINUES TO
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST. HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
FAVOR SHOWERS WEAKENING AND NOT IMPACTING THE TERMINALS. MVFR
CEILINGS MOVING INTO GEORGIA MAY APPROACH THE TERMINALS,
ALTHOUGH THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER OR NOT
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE OBSERVED. FOR NOW, HAVE INCLUDED SCT025 AT
ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT OGB BUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS
REMAINS POSSIBLE BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN
TEMPO GROUP. GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED TODAY WITH WINDS SHIFTING
MORE WESTERLY AND GUSTS BETWEEN 20-25 KNOTS. WINDS SHIFT MORE
NORTHWESTERLY AS A FRONT MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT WITH GUSTS
SUBSIDING.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK,
DIURNALLY-DRIVEN WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ND
AVIATION...96
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