379
FXUS62 KCAE 100603
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
203 AM EDT FRI JUL 10 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TODAY IS EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER WITH SOME STRONGER STORMS POSSIBLE
ONCE AGAIN. TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE WEEK AHEAD CONTINUE TO
TREND DOWNWARD. AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 06Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. HOT AND BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUE TOMORROW WITH ISOLATED
TO WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS POSSIBLE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON.
- 2. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY BRINGS HIGHER RAIN CHANCES FOR THE WEEKEND
ALONG WITH INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPS EARLY
IN THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: HOT AND BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUE TOMORROW WITH
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS POSSIBLE AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON.
AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE APPALACHIANS IS FORECAST TO KEEP
SLIDING EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. AS IT DOES IT IS
EXPECTED TO FLATTEN SOMEWHAT. IN ADDITION, A WEAK SURFACE LEE
SIDE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP, LEADING TO BREEZY SOUTHWEST
WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 20 MPH. DESPITE THE TROUGH OVERHEAD, 850
MB TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 21-22C, LEADING TO AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S ONCE AGAIN. LIKE YESTERDAY,
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP,
LEADING TO A LITTLE BIT OF UNCERTAINTY OF JUST HOW WARM WE GET.
HEAT INDICES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 100-105F RANGE ONCE
AGAIN, WITH THE SAME CAVEAT AS THE ACTUAL AIR TEMPERATURES.
CONTINUE TO USE CAUTION IF YOU SPEND PROLONGED TIME OUTDOORS.
SPEAKING OF THUNDERSTORMS, A SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE
THROUGH THE FLATTENING TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING, BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
STORMS TO THE AREA. THINKING THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF THESE
STORMS WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY, OR SLIGHTLY MORE. THERE IS
EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENT CAPE TO PRODUCE SOME STRONGER STORMS.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW INVERTED V SIGNATURES,
SUGGESTING SOME STORMS COULD PRODUCE STRONG WINDS. BECAUSE OF
THIS, THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER (SPC) HAS A MARGINAL RISK
(LEVEL 1/5) OF SEVERE STORMS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA FOR THIS
AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGE 2: A FRONTAL BOUNDARY BRINGS HIGHER RAIN CHANCES FOR THE
WEEKEND ALONG WITH INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
EARLY IN THE WEEK.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED OVER MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION THIS MORNING IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHWARD IN RESPONSE
TO A SHORTWAVE MOVING FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH
APPROACH THE AREA, MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY CAN BE ANTICIPATED FOR THE WEEKEND. SOME STRONG STORMS
ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THIS ACTIVITY COULD
LINGER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT
THE FRONT STALLS OUT NEAR THE AREA. IN ADDITION TO THE INCREASED
RAIN CHANCES, CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT WE'LL SEE
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS WE HEAD INTO THE NEW WORK WEEK. THE
NBM INTERQUARTILE RANGE (IQR) ON MONDAY RANGES LOWERED A FEW
DEGREES COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT'S GUIDANCE AND IS NOW FROM THE
LOW 80S TO UPPER 80S. GIVEN THE RECENT HOT WEATHER, THE NBM
TAKES THAT INTO ACCOUNT AND WILL LIKELY HAVE A WARM BIAS. SO, I
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF WE END UP TOWARD THE COOLER END OF THE
IQR. AFTER THIS SYSTEM GETS FLUSHED OUT OF THE AREA, DRIER
CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND ARE FORECAST TO RETURN.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD EXCEPT FOR
SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION WHICH MAY RESULT IN TEMPORARY
RESTRICTIONS.
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE AIR MASS AND EXPECT A SIMILAR DAY TODAY
WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS PICKING UP TO AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH WITH
GUSTS OVER 20 MPH LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A LITTLE
BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TODAY WITH
A WEAK UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. CONTINUING THE
PROB30 FOR CONVECTION 19Z-24Z. NOT EXPECTING FOG/STRATUS ISSUES
OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON
STORMS THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...29
AVIATION...23
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