052
FXUS62 KCAE 041045
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
645 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, WITH A FEW STORMS CAPABLE OF BECOMING STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE. AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 12Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE EACH DAY THIS WEEK
AS TEMPERATURES HOVER AROUND AVERAGE. A COUPLE STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE TODAY.
DISCUSSION
- 1. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE EACH DAY THIS WEEK
AS TEMPERATURES HOVER AROUND AVERAGE. A COUPLE STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE TODAY.
A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS DEVELOPING JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE STREAMING
INTO THE REGION, WITH THE GREATEST MOISTURE REMAINING EAST OF
THE AREA AND CLOSER TO THE COAST. GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT IN
KEEPING THE UPPER LOW IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK,
SUPPORTING ABOVE-NORMAL COVERAGE OF DIURNAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY, WHILE COOLER AND DRIER AIR ALOFT
WILL HELP STEEPEN LAPSE RATES AND INCREASE INSTABILITY. COMBINED
WITH MODEST WIND SHEAR, THE ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE LATE EVENING AS
FORECAST CAPE PROFILES NEAR 2000-2500 J/KG WITH DCAPE VALUES
AROUND 800-1200 J/KG. A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO
SEVERE, WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AS THE PRIMARY CONCERN. REPEAT
DAYS OF CONVECTION HAS RESULTED IN A SLOWLY-INCREASING RISK OF
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING, ESPECIALLY IN LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVED
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL OR TRAINING STORMS OVER A
SHORT PERIOD OF TIME.
BY WEDNESDAY, AN APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO
WEAKEN AND LIFT THE UPPER LOW OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST. WHILE WEAK
TROUGHING LINGERS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, THE OVERALL
THREAT FOR STRONGER STORMS APPEARS LOWER. DAILY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN LIKELY. A ROBUST RIDGE
NEAR THE NAEFS CLIMATOLOGICAL MAX BUILDS OFF THE EAST COAST
THIS WEEKEND. THE RIDGE SHOULD ALLOW DEEP SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO PERSIST LATE IN THE WEEK, KEEPING PWAT'S
DURING THIS PERIOD NEAR 2" WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED THIS MORNING THROUGH 15Z.
LIGHT WINDS AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THIS MORNING HAS
BROUGHT ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG. THIS MEANS
MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS AT MOST SITES AT ISSUANCE TIME. MOST
GUIDANCE BEGINS BREAKING THE CLOUDS OUT AND BRINGING CONDITIONS
BACK TO VFR BY 15Z, AND HAVE GENERALLY TRENDED IN THAT DIRECTION.
LIGHT SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY.
WITH WEAK MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OVER THE AREA, WE EXPECTED
ANOTHER AFTERNOON OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
COVERAGE SHOULD SUPPORT PROB30 GROUPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS DURING
THE AFTERNOON THROUGH 02Z TONIGHT, SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS DAYS. AS
FOR TONIGHT, LATEST MODELS SHOWING MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE NIGHT, BUT IF CONDITIONS DON'T CHANGE MUCH OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS, CAN NOT RULE OUT ANOTHER NIGHT OF RESTRICTIONS FORMING AT
ALL SITES.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
THIS WEEK WITH EARLY MORNING RESTRICTIONS LIKELY.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ND
AVIATION...73
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