719
FXUS62 KCAE 271735
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
135 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TRENDING DOWNWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THIS WEEKEND. UPDATED THE 18Z AVIATION.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. DAILY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEK, WITH ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE. CHANCES ON
FRIDAY/SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE MODULATED BY THE LOCATION
OF A BACKDOOR FRONT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: DAILY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEK, WITH ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE. CHANCES
ON FRIDAY/SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE MODULATED BY THE LOCATION
OF A BACKDOOR FRONT.
THE PATTERN TODAY HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY, FAVORING A BIT OF A
REPRIEVE FROM THE ROBUST WET WEATHER WE HAVE SEEN OVER THE LAST
WEEK OR SO. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS IS QUITE
COMPLEX, WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALING A LOT OF THINGS
GOING ON AT THE MOMENT. A BROAD, CLOSED LOW IS MEANDERING ACROSS
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA, WITH NARROWING UPPER RIDGING EXTENDING INTO
CANADA. BENEATH THIS, A MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING NORTHWARD
ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS AND WILL SLOWLY BEGIN SHIFTING EASTWARD
OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE COMBINATION OF THIS & THE AMPLIFIED
CALIFORNIA LOW HAVE LED TO A BIT OF AMPLIFICATION OF THE RIDGING
ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA, WITH A DOWNSTREAM TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN CONUS DIGGING SOUTHWARD SO FAR TODAY.
ALL OF THIS HAS SHIFTED THE ORIENTATION OF THE MOISTURE RICH
FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. THE SURGE OF 2"+ PWS HAS PUSHED NORTHEAST
OF THE AREA AND WE ARE NOW SEEING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY OR WEST-
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ATOP THE AREA INSTEAD OF PURELY SOUTHERLY
FLOW THAT HAS BEEN PUSHING WAVE AFTER WAVE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE AREA RECENTLY. STILL EXPECTING
ISOLATED STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AS THE AIRMASS REMAINS FAIRLY
MOIST AND UNSTABLE; IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH TO GET THINGS GOING.
BUT FOR A VARIETY OF REASONS RELATED TO THE SLIGHT PATTERN
SHIFT, WIDESPREAD COVERAGE IS NOT FAVORED TODAY. AS WE GET INTO
THURSDAY, THE TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS IS FORECAST
TO BEGIN SHIFTING FURTHER SOUTHEASTWARD. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
WILL ARRIVE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THIS. PLENTY OF
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED, WITH RAP SOUNDINGS SHOWING ~2000 J/KG
OF MLCAPE. DOWNBURSTS WITH PRECIP LOADING ARE THE MOST PROBABLY
HAZARDS WITH STORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT, AND I DO EXPECT THAT
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE A BIT GREATER THAN CURRENT
RUNS OF CAMS ARE INDICATING. DAMAGING WINDS WITH THE STRONGEST
STORMS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE, BUT FLASH FLOODING WITH TRAINING
STORMS IS THE MOST LIKELY THREAT.
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND IS AN INTERESTING FORECAST. EVEN AT
THIS CLOSE RANGE, GUIDANCE IS MIXED ON WHERE THIS BACKDOOR FRONT
ENDS UP. THERE IS A RANGE OF POSSIBILITIES, FROM THE RRFS-MPAS
WHICH PUSHES THE FRONT CLEAR INTO CENTRAL GA TO THE ECMWF WHICH
HANGS IT UP IN THE WESTERN MIDLANDS. THIS WILL MAINLY MODULATE
RAIN CHANCES FRIDAY/SATURDAY AS IT IS LIKELY THAT THIS FRONT
BEGINS WASHING OUT A BIT AND LIFTING NORTHWARD OVER THE WEEKEND.
GIVEN OUR SATURATED SOILS CURRENTLY, ANY AREAS THAT DO SEE
REPEAT ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND WILL HAVE A FLASH
FLOOD THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH THEM. PWS >2" WILL PROMOTE MORE
EFFICIENT RAINFALL. WHILE SHOWERS & STORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY
FRI-MON, THE BEST CHANCES APPEAR TO BE IN THE CSRA ON FRIDAY
AND THEN THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MIDLANDS & CSRA ON SATURDAY, WITH
BETTER CHANCES OVERSPREADING THE AREA THEREAFTER. A MORE ROBUST
FRONT LOOKS TO PUSH THROUGH ON MONDAY NIGHT, WITH GUIDANCE
SUGGESTING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF DRYING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
MIXTURE OF MVFR/VFR CEILINGS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL GIVE WAY
TO VFR CEILINGS.
AFTER SOME WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR STRATUS THIS MORNING, CEILINGS
FINALLY BEGINNING TO SHOW SOME BREAKS AND LIFT INTO VFR AT MOST
TAF LOCATIONS. SOME SHOWERS AND CONVECTION HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS
THE EASTERN MIDLANDS, MAINLY AROUND KOGB, AND THUS CAN NOT RULE
OUT A PASSING SHOWER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON THERE BEFORE SHOWER
POTENTIAL MOVES FURTHER WEST.
MAY STILL SEE A MIXTURE OF UPPER END MVFR/LOW END VFR THE NEXT
FEW HOURS, THEN GUIDANCE IS TRENDING TOWARDS MORE OF VFR
CEILINGS. MOST MODELS SEEM TO INDICATE THAT VFR CEILINGS WILL
THEN REMAIN OVERNIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING. HAVE TRENDED
THAT DIRECTION TOO, BUT WOULD NOT BE COMPLETELY SURPRISED TO SEE
A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOP TOWARDS THE MORNING HOURS. AS
FOR VISIBILITIES, OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS/STORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNSET. IFR VISIBILITIES
WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE AT ANY TAF SITE IMPACTED BY A PASSING
SHOWER THOUGH. LATER ON TONIGHT, GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED TOWARDS A
PERIODS OF MVFR VISIBILITIES, AND HAVE HANDLED THAT WITH A
TEMPO GROUP LATE TONIGHT FOR NOW. WINDS CONTINUE TO BE OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST FROM 5-8 KTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, THEN MORE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. WINDS SHOULD ONCE AGAIN PICK UP
OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MORNING FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE EACH
DAY THIS WEEK. SCATTERED, DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION EXPECTED
THROUGH THURSDAY UNTIL A FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION
SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASING RAIN CHANCES.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...PL
AVIATION...CAL
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