938  
FXUS62 KCAE 190655  
AFDCAE  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC  
255 AM EDT THU SEP 19 2019  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE  
WEEKEND. A WEAK COLD FRONT WITH LITTLE MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO  
THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
 
 
BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL FEED COOL, DRY AIR INTO THE  
FORECAST AREA TODAY. PWAT VALUES WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY,  
DROPPING TO WELL BELOW ONE INCH AND ENSURING DRY WEATHER. ANY  
CLOUD COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED TO A FEW CIRRUS THAT DEVELOP OFF  
OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND STREAM OVER THE FA IN THE NORTHWEST  
UPPER LEVEL FLOW. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S  
TO LOWER 80S. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY AIR WILL ALLOW  
TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE 50S OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH SOME LOW  
LEVEL MIXING WILL PREVENT IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
 
 
THE MODELS HAS BEEN CONSISTENT SHOWING HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATE AT  
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS.  
THE GUIDANCE SHOWS TEMPERATURES A LITTLE HIGHER SATURDAY BECAUSE  
OF AIR MASS MODIFICATION BUT STILL CLOSE TO NORMAL.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW DRY HIGH PRESSURE IN THE FORECAST AREA  
THROUGH MONDAY. THE MODELS HAVE A WEAK FRONT MOVING INTO THE  
AREA MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY AND STALLING. THE GFS HAS TRENDED  
WITH MORE MOISTURE BUT WITH SURFACE RIDGING ALONG THE NORTHERN  
GULF COAST LIMITING MOISTURE PLUS FLAT UPPER RIDGING WE BELIEVE  
THE SHOWER CHANCE IS LOW. WE USED A MODEL BLEND AND MAINTAINED  
POPS LESS THAN 20 PERCENT. THE GFS AND ECMWF MOS SUPPORT ABOVE  
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH A DIFFUSE FRONT AND UPPER RIDGING.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
DRIER AIR AND LOW LEVEL MIXING OVERNIGHT WILL ENSURE VFR  
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.  
 
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NE OR ENE THROUGH THE PERIOD.  
GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL BE AROUND 15 KTS.  
 
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION  
EXPECTED.  
 

 
   
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
GA...NONE.  
SC...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...99  
NEAR TERM...99  
SHORT TERM...99  
LONG TERM...99  
AVIATION...99  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab SC Page
The Nexlab GA Page Main Text Page