664
FXUS62 KCAE 021033
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
633 AM EDT FRI OCT 2 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
DENSE FOG ADVISORY EXPANDED FURTHER WESTWARD TO COVER MUCH OF
THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA. AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 12Z
TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. AREAS OF DENSE FOG EXPANDING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING.
- 2. MOSTLY DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH
FRIDAY.
- 3. INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN THIS WEEKEND AS A FRONT APPROACHES
THE AREA.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: AREAS OF DENSE FOG EXPANDING ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS MORNING.
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG/STRATUS
ACROSS THE EASTERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA AND CONTINUING TO EXPAND
WESTWARD THIS MORNING. THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXPANDED
AGAIN TO COVER ALL BUT NEWBERRY, FAIRFIELD AND NORTHERN
LANCASTER COUNTIES. VISIBILITIES OF 1/4SM OR LESS ARE WIDESPREAD
FROM CHERAW TO CAMDEN TO BARNWELL AND EASTWARD TO THE COAST. THE
DENSE FOG HAS BEEN BUILDING WESTWARD BUT APPEARS TO BE SLOWING
ITS WESTWARD PROGRESS OVER THE PAST 30 MIN OR SO NEAR COLUMBIA.
CONFIDENCE IS LOWER IN DENSE FOG DEVELOPING ACROSS THE UPPER
CSRA WHERE STRATUS HAS OVERSPREAD THE REGION BUT STILL MAY
DEVELOP WITH TIME. VISIBILITIES SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE AFTER
10AM AS THE FOG/STRATUS BEGIN TO MIX OUT.
.KEY MESSAGE 2: MOSTLY DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TOWARDS THE END OF THE
WEEK LEADING TO ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AS 500 MB HEIGHTS WILL
RISE TO NEAR 1.5 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL BASED ON
ENSEMBLE MEANS. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO HIGHS NEARLY 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL, IN THE LOW 90S AS OCTOBER BEGINS UNSEASONABLE WARM.
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING OFFSHORE, LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE, ALTHOUGH FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A
LAYER OF SUBSTANTIAL DRY AIR IN PLACE THAT WILL PRECLUDE ANY RAIN
TODAY. AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN AND THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
BEGINS TO INCREASE, ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH, SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS A
POSSIBLY A STRAY STORM REMAINS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON BUT MUCH OF
THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY.
.KEY MESSAGE 3: INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN THIS WEEKEND AS A
FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA.
THERE REMAINS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY AS IT PERTAINS TO THE PROGRESSION
OF A FRONT THROUGH THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. LREF CONTINUES TO TREND
WITH PWATS GREATER THAN 2 INCHES AS DEEP MOISTURE BUILDS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. WHILE FORCING WILL BE GENERALLY WEAK, ESPECIALLY ON
SATURDAY, WEAKNESSES IN THE RIDGE AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT
WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES SATURDAY CONTINUING INTO
SUNDAY. MODELS AND ENSEMBLES SHOW LARGE SPLIT IN TOTAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH AN AXIS OF HEAVIER RAIN LIKELY IN
THE AREA. LREF STILL CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNIFICANT SPREAD FROM
AROUND 1" TO 2.5" BETWEEN THE 25TH TO 75TH PERCENTILE THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE
ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY MORNING WHEN THE
HEAVIEST RAIN FALLS LIKELY DUE TO THE APPROACHING FRONT AND
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. DRIER AIR WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE
NORTHERN AREA MONDAY. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS HOW DEEP THE
TROUGH DIGS SOUTH. AT THE SURFACE, THE COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO
MOVE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING, BUT HOW FAR SOUTH IS UNCERTAIN.
SHOWERS MAY LINGER THROUGH MID-WEEK IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST FA
DEPENDING ON THE FRONT POSITION ALTHOUGH DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN
PLACE ONCE THE FRONT PASSES.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
IFR/LIFR RESTRICTIONS ALL TERMINALS THIS MORNING IN FOG/STRATUS.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS WIDESPREAD FOG/STRATUS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA IMPACTING ALL TERMINALS WITH IFR/LIFR RESTRICTIONS.
DENSE FOG AT OGB SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH AROUND 13Z BEFORE
IMPROVING, WHILE DENSE FOG IS LESS CERTAIN AT OTHER TERMINALS
WITH LOWEST CONFIDENCE AT AGS/DNL/AIK. HOWEVER, ALL TERMINALS
ARE DEALING WITH CIGS AT OR BELOW 500FT AND THIS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH 13-14Z BEFORE IMPROVEMENTS BEGIN WITH MIXING TAKING
PLACE. NEAR CALM WINDS WILL PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH BY LATE
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AROUND 4 TO 6 KNOTS BEFORE
DIMINISHING AGAIN WITH SUNSET.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION THIS
WEEKEND MAY LEAD TO ADDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR SCZ016-018-
022-025>031-035-037-038-041-116-135>137.
GA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR GAZ040-
063>065-077.
DISCUSSION...NS
AVIATION...23
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