807
FXUS62 KCAE 011253
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
853 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE THROUGH THE CSRA THIS
MORNING. AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 12Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. RAIN AND STORM CHANCES INCREASE FOR THIS WEEKEND WITH A
MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN RETURNING NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
- 1. RAIN AND STORM CHANCES INCREASE FOR THIS WEEKEND WITH A
MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN RETURNING NEXT WEEK.
AN UPPER TROUGH AND EMBEDDED CLOSED LOW OVER THE MIDWEST ALONG
WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY MOVE
TOWARD THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES, IT IS FORECAST TO SLOW DOWN AS FLOW ALOFT BECOMES
MORE PARALLEL TO THE FRONT, MAKING IT HARDER FOR IT TO PUSH
EASTWARD. AS THEY DO, DEEPER MOISTURE INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY,
ESPECIALLY TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS PWATS ARE FORECAST TO TOP THE
2" MARK. IN ADDITION TO THE INCREASED MOISTURE, A SHORTWAVE AND
PREFRONTAL TROUGH ARE FORECAST TO MOVE TOWARD THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING, TRIGGERING A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
MOVING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR STORMS LOOKS
TO BE IN THE CSRA IN THE AFTERNOON BEFORE PUSHING INTO THE
WESTERN AND NORTHERN MIDLANDS OVERNIGHT. WHILE THE INSTABILITY
ISN'T ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE, IT IS SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE SOME
STRONGER STORMS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW AN INVERTED V
SIGNATURE, INDICATING GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE. SOME OF THE HI-
RES GUIDANCE HAS ALSO SUGGESTED A LINE OF STORMS COULD DEVELOP
AND MOVE THROUGH THE CSRA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON, WHICH WILL NEED
TO BE WATCHED.WITH PWATS BEING OVER 2", LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS INITIAL ROUND.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA IS FORECAST TO EJECT
NORTHEASTWARD, BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR
SUNDAY. AS OF NOW, THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE
IN THE LOWER CSRA/EASTERN MIDLANDS AS THE SHORTWAVE IS
ANTICIPATED TO MOVE NEAR THE COAST. SIMILAR TO TODAY, LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE FOR SUNDAY DUE TO THE HIGH PWAT VALUES
REMAINING IN PLACE. A FEW STRONGER STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN,
WITH GUSTY WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS
THAT DEVELOP.
AFTER THE WEEKEND, MORE TYPICAL DIURNALLY DRIVEN ACTIVITY IS
ANTICIPATED THROUGH MID-WEEK AS RESIDUAL MOISTURE HANGS AROUND
THE AREA.
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WITH INTERMITTENT MVFR/IFR CIGS THROUGH 14Z, THEN
MORE RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AS SHRA/TSRA
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION.
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH TODAY WITH SOUTHEASTERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW, AND THIS HAS RESULTED IN SOME PATCHY MVFR/IFR CIG
RESTRICTIONS AT THE TERMINALS. AN AREA OF -SHRA/-TSRA IS CURRENTLY
MOVING THROUGH EAST-CENTRAL GA AND MAY AFFECT THE AGS/DNL TERMINALS
OVER THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS. RESTRICTIONS SHOULD EASE FOR A PERIOD OF
TIME LATE THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON, THEN RETURN PARTICULARLY
AFTER 21Z WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, SO
CONTINUING THE PROB30 GROUP 20Z-02Z. INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN
RESTRICTIONS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN
PLACE WITH MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR CIGS EXPECTED AND LINGERING
SHOWERS. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT FROM THE SOUTHEAST INCREASING TO
AROUND 6 TO 7 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY MORE SOUTHERLY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RAIN AND RESTRICTIONS BECOME
INCREASINGLY LIKELY LATER THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...29
AVIATION...EC/23
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page