494
FXUS62 KCAE 011809
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
209 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MONITORING CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANY
ORGANIZED CONVECTION TODAY AND SUNDAY COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING IN ADDITION TO STRONG WIND
GUSTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 18Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE FOR THIS WEEKEND
WITH A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN RETURNING NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
- 1. RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE FOR THIS WEEKEND
WITH A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN RETURNING NEXT WEEK.
MIDDAY SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHEAST, MORE ROBUST CUMULUS
CLOUDS DEVELOPING IN THE WESTERN MIDLANDS AND THE CSRA, AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE EASTERN
MIDLANDS. DESPITE THE MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES SO FAR TODAY,
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE FA WITH A VERY MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE. THE
ATMOSPHERE IS ALREADY TAKING ADVANTAGE OF THE MOISTURE AS
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED, MAINLY IN THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA. EXPECT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE TO INCREASE
ACROSS THE REGION AS THE AFTERNOON GOES ON, WITH SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ONE POTENTIAL DETERRENT TO
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE THE PRESENCE OF MID-LEVEL DRY
AIR AND STABLE CONDITIONS WHICH (AT LEAST INITIALLY) SHOULD
REDUCE THE THREAT OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THIS DRY LAYER WILL MOISTEN TOWARDS
EVENING SO TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. AREAS ACROSS THE
WESTERN FA HAVE HIGHER PWATS AND LOWER DCAPE VALUES SUGGESTING
HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE THE PRIMARY
HAZARD FROM ANY MATURE CONVECTION WHILE IN THE EAST PWATS ARE
LOWER BUT DCAPE VALUES ARE MUCH HIGHER SUGGESTING A THREAT FOR
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THERE IS SOME SHEAR (15-25 KNOTS OF
EFFECTIVE SHEAR) AVAILABLE TODAY SO WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS APPROACH SEVERE CRITERIA DESPITE THE OVERALL
LACK OF FORCING.
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INCREASING TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A SHORTWAVE OVER
NORTHERN FLORIDA IS FORECAST TO EJECT NORTHEASTWARD, BRINGING
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY. AS OF
NOW, THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN MIDLANDS AND SOUTHERN CSRA AS THE SHORTWAVE IS
ANTICIPATED TO MOVE NEAR THE COAST. SIMILAR TO TODAY, ANY ROBUST
CONVECTION COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL, AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.
AFTER THE WEEKEND, MORE TYPICAL DIURNALLY DRIVEN ACTIVITY IS
ANTICIPATED THROUGH MID-WEEK AS RESIDUAL MOISTURE HANGS AROUND
THE AREA.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS TO
BEGIN THE TAF PERIOD, THEN INTERMITTENT RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED INTO
TONIGHT AS SHRA/TSRA MOVE THROUGH THE REGION.
VFR CONDITIONS WITH PARTLY SUNNY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS
AFTERNOON. -SHRA ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA, AND AS
THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE, EXPECT AN INCREASING THREAT
FOR -TSRA. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND RESTRICTIONS ARE
INCREASINGLY LIKELY AFTER 21Z AS PRECIP CONTINUES TO FILL IN ACROSS
THE REGION. CONTINUED THE PROB30 GROUP BUT SHIFTED THE TIMING UP
SLIGHTLY. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT FROM THE SOUTHEAST AROUND 6 TO 9
KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY MORE SOUTHERLY. HOWEVER, PRECIP
LOADING MAY LEAD TO A FEW STRONG DOWNBURSTS IN THE STRONGEST TSRA,
AND WINDS OF 25-30 KTS MAY BE GUSTY AND ERRATIC AT TIMES.
RESTRICTIONS ARE THEN LIKELY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH IFR CIGS AND
LINGERING SHOWERS WHICH SHOULD DISSIPATE BY SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING.
VFR CONDITIONS THEN RETURN LATE SUNDAY MORNING WITH ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RAIN AND RESTRICTIONS BECOME
INCREASINGLY LIKELY LATER THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...7
AVIATION...EC
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