866
FXUS62 KCAE 241050
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
650 AM EDT MON AUG 24 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED 12Z AVIATION.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WITH AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
EACH DAY THIS WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WITH AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES EACH DAY THIS WEEK.
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED ACROSS THE MIDLANDS,
ROUGHLY ALONG THE I-20 CORRIDOR AND IS EXPECTED TO LINGER TOWARD
THE COAST THIS WEEK. THIS BOUNDARY IS EVIDENT IN THE DEWPOINT
GRADIENT, WITH VALUES IN THE MID-70S TO OUR SOUTH/EAST AND
MID-60S TO OUR NORTH/WEST. THROUGH TODAY AND INTO TUESDAY, THE
UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN WILL SUPPORT NORTHWEST FLOW AND CONTINUED
ADVECTION OF DIRER AIR INTO THE REGION. AS A RESULT, RAIN
CHANCES WILL REMAIN LOW, WITH ONLY ISOLATED DIURNALLY DRIVEN
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR DEEP CONVECTION, WITH ONLY SHALLOW, FAIR
WEATHER CUMULUS IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL,
ALTHOUGH STILL RELATIVELY WARM AS HIGHS REACH THE LOW 90S.
LOWER DEWPOINTS SHOULD ALSO KEEP HEAT INDICES FROM BECOMING
OVERLY OPPRESSIVE COMPARED TO RECENT WEEKS.
MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM MID TO LATE WEEK, LEADING
TO INCREASING AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. LREF
PROBABILITIES INDICATE A 50-70 PERCENT CHANCE OF PWAT VALUES
EXCEEDING 1.75 INCHES BEGINNING WEDNESDAY. THIS INCREASE IN
MOISTURE, COMBINED WITH UPPER- LEVEL TROUGHING SHOULD SUPPORT
GREATER CHANCES FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION. WEAK SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE FLOW MAY PROVIDE ADDITIONAL FORCING AND FURTHER
ENHANCE COVERAGE. THURSDAY CURRENTLY APPEARS TO HAVE THE
GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION AS THE STALLED BOUNDARY MAY
BECOME REACTIVATED INTO THE FA. HOWEVER, THERE REMAINS
UNCERTAINTY IN THE EVOLUTION AND PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT. AT THIS
TIME, A SIGNIFICANT AIRMASS CHANGE APPEARS UNLIKELY, WITH
SEASONABLY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH DAILY CONVECTION CHANCES.
AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
DRIER AIR FILTERED INTO THE AREA YESTERDAY WITH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE LACKING AT THE TERMINALS. AS A RESULT, RESTRICTIONS ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. GENERALLY
WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY
SHIFTING SLIGHTLY MORE NORTHWESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING.
HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE FAVORS ANY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TO
REMAIN EAST OF THE TERMINALS WITH LOWER THAN 30 PERCENT
THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES SO HAVE LEFT OUT ANY MENTION OF TSRA.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...ISOLATED STORMS EACH AFTERNOON WITH
HIGHER COVERAGE OF STORMS EXPECTED BY MIDWEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ND
AVIATION...96
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