633
FXUS62 KCAE 021135
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
635 AM EST FRI DEC 2 2022
SYNOPSIS
COOLER AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. SATURDAY IS THE
WARMER OF THE TWO WEEKEND DAYS AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITH THE FRONT, BUT THE NEXT CHANCE
FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WITH FAIR AND COOL CONDITIONS IN STORE
FOR TODAY. THE SURFACE HIGH IS CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION BUT WE WILL SEE IT MOVE OFFSHORE AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. A SURFACE LOW IS CURRENTLY GETTING PICKED UP BY AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH ALONG THE ROCKIES AND WILL CONTINUE ITS NORTHEASTWARD
MOVEMENT. AS THE SURFACE HIGH HEADS EAST, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
OVERHEAD WILL TIGHTEN, PROVIDING INCREASING ONSHORE MOISTURE FLOW AT
LOWER LEVELS. WHILE WE WILL START OFF RELATIVELY CLEAR (ASIDE FROM
SOME CIRRUS) EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY.
THIS SHOULD NOT SUPPRESS DAYTIME HEATING SIGNIFICANTLY AND
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY; CHILLY MORNING QUICKLY
WARMING UP TO HIGHS AROUND CLIMATOLOGY, AROUND 60 NORTH AND WEST OF
I-20 AND LOWER 60S SOUTH AND EAST. GIVEN THE RECENT MOIST BIAS,
WENT WITH THE WARMER SOLUTION.
OVERNIGHT, MID LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL INCREASE AND SKIES WILL
BECOME OVERCAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL STILL BE DOMINANT HOWEVER AND
CONDITIONS WILL CALM SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT
WILL BE NEARING THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
MOISTURE WILL QUICKLY INCREASE AHEAD OF IT. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL
STILL BE TO OUR WEST AND WE WILL BE FAR FROM ANY FORCING, SO DID NOT
ADD POPS PRIOR TO 12Z SATURDAY. LOWS IN THE MID 40S.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
COLD FRONT WILL BE JUST OFF TO THE WEST OF APPALACHIANS
SATURDAY MORNING, WITH THE FRONT THEN MOVING ACROSS THE CWA
SATURDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, MOISTURE WILL HAVE INCREASE
OFF THE ATLANTIC, AND THE FRONT ITSELF SHOULD BRING SOME
MOISTURE ALONG WITH IT. HOWEVER, AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS AND SOME DOWNSLOPING FLOW DEVELOPS, MOISTURE AND
SHOWERS BEGIN TO DIMINISH. IN ADDITION, UPPER ENERGY MOVES NORTH
AND FURTHER AWAY FROM THE AREA. THIS SHOULD LIMIT THE RAINFALL
POTENTIAL WITH THE FRONT. CURRENT CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
STILL LOOKS REASONABLE WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY, WITH
DRIER AIR THEN MOVING IN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WARM
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT, WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID 60S OVER THE NORTHERN COUNTIES, AND THE LOWER 70S ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN CWA. AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT, LOW
TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE LOWER 40S NORTH TO THE LOWER 50S IN
THE SOUTH. SUNDAY WILL BE DRY AND COOLER THROUGH THE DAY AS THE
FRONT REMAINS SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
UNCERTAINTY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LONGER TERM, WITH MUCH
OF THAT UNCERTAINTY DUE TO WHERE THE PREVIOUS FRONT MOVES. THIS
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT, THEN ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS BRINGS A FEW CHANCES FOR
RAINFALL THROUGH THE WEEK AS THE FRONTS MOVE THROUGH.
TEMPERATURES ALSO WARM FROM MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS THE WARM
FRONT MOVES THROUGH, THEN ANOTHER COOL DOWN INTO THE END OF THE
WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
PRIMARILY VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTHEAST PROVIDING MOISTURE RETURN VIA ONSHORE
FLOW. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING SCATTERED CIRRUS STREAMING IN AHEAD
OF THE NEXT FRONT AS WELL AS SOME SCATTERED LOW STRATOCU. CIGS HAVE
BRIEFLY GONE DOWN TO MVFR AT DNL AND MORE CONTINUES TO PASS OVER
AGS/DNL. AS MORE MOISTURE MOVES IN, ANTICIPATE MORE PERIODS OF MVFR
CIGS AT AGS/DNL/OGB, LOW CHANCE MOVING OVER CAE/CUB. WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO AROUND 5 KT FROM THE SOUTHEAST. TONIGHT, DEEPER MOISTURE
WILL MOVE IN AHEAD OF THE FRONT. MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE KEEPS CIGS VFR
THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD, BUT DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES
IN MOISTURE, THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY TOWARDS SATURDAY
MORNING.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH
SE CANADA AND THE ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL PASS LATE SATURDAY. MAJORITY
OF PRECIP AHEAD OF IT WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH BUT SOME CEILING
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE. UNSETTLED WEATHER AT THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
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