165
FXUS62 KCAE 221738
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
138 PM EDT WED JUL 22 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS A COLD
FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES. 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AS A SLOW-
MOVING FRONT APPROACHES. UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: RAIN CHANCES INCREASE ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AS A
SLOW-MOVING FRONT APPROACHES. UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
A COLD FRONT IS ANTICIPATED TO CONTINUE SINKING TOWARD THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS EVENTUALLY STALLING NEAR THE FA AS A
COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES ROTATE THROUGH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN SEABOARD. MOST AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY THIS EVENING
OUTSIDE OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.
AS THE FRONT STALLS NEAR OUR AREA ON THURSDAY, THE SLOW MOVING
NATURE SETS THE STAGE FOR IMPACTFUL FLASH FLOODING OVER THE
CAROLINAS AS HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS TRAIN ALONG THE BOUNDARY WITH
PLENTY OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE. HEAVY RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH THE FLOODING THREAT
CONSEQUENTIALLY INCREASING EACH DAY ALONG THE I-20 CORRIDOR. PW
VALUES ARE FORECAST TO EXCEED 2" WITH DEEP SW FLOW, RELATIVELY
SKINNY CAPE PROFILES, AND DEEP WARM CLOUD DEPTHS. WITH MEAN FLOW
ORIENTED ALMOST PERFECTLY PARALLEL TO THE BOUNDARY, TRAINING AND
HIGHLY EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCING CELLS REMAIN LIKELY.
ALTHOUGH STILL SUBJECT TO CHANGE, RAINFALL TOTALS OF A COUPLE OF
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH SAT, WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS OF 2-4"
POSSIBLE IN THE PROXIMITY OF THE BOUNDARY (DECREASING TO THE SOUTH).
ADDITIONALLY, LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS WILL BE POSSIBLE WHERE STORMS
REPEATEDLY TRAIN OVER THE SAME LOCATION. THE WEATHER PREDICTION
CENTER HIGHLIGHTS NEARLY ALL OF THE CWA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THU AND FRI. WITH THIS, IT COULD WARRANT FLOOD
ADVISORIES AND/OR FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS.
MAX TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO COOL TO BELOW NORMAL THROUGH SAT
UNDER ANOMALOUSLY LOW HEIGHTS AND WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE NORTHEAST THIS WEEKEND AND WILL TRY TO
NUDGE THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH BRINGING A BIT MORE STABLE AIR WITH
TIME INTO NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR GENERALLY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
A SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR MASS AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS RESIDES OVER
THE REGION TODAY. WIDESPREAD SCT-BKN DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS
EXPECTED THROUGH SUNSET BEFORE THOSE CLOUDS DIMINISH AND HIGHER
CLOUDS REMAIN ALOFT. SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ALREADY POPPING UP SO
INCLUDE VCSH ALL BUT OGB THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS AROUND 10 TO 12 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OVER 20 KNOTS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING TO AROUND 5 TO 7 KNOTS
OVERNIGHT. AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY SINKS SOUTHWARD TOWARD
THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY, RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH, MAINLY AFTER THIS FORECAST PERIOD, BUT DID
INCLUDE A PROB30 AT CAE/CUB AFTER 16Z THURSDAY. LOW CONFIDENCE
IN PREDAWN FOG/STRATUS SO NO MENTION AT THIS TIME.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS FROM SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY BEGINNING THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
WEEKEND.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ND
AVIATION...23
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