057
FXUS62 KCAE 260015
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
815 PM EDT FRI SEP 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES ADJUSTED. AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED
FOR 00Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. COOLER BUT DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY RETURN TO NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES
NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: COOLER BUT DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY RETURN TO NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL
VALUES NEXT WEEK.
CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH MUCH
DRIER AIR IN PLACE (SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 40S). FAIRLY
STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING COUPLED WITH WEAK CAA SHOULD BRING
THE COOLEST LOW TEMPERATURES SEEN IN MONTHS. FOR BOTH THE
COLUMBIA AND AUGUSTA AREAS, IT HAS BEEN 132 DAYS SINCE THE LAST
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE BELOW 50F. MAV/MET/ECS MOS GUIDANCE REMAINS
FAIRLY CONSISTENT THAT LOWS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S ARE LIKELY TONIGHT. NORTHERN LOCATIONS AND MORE
SHELTERED SPOTS COULD EVEN DIP INTO THE MID 40S NEAR SUNRISE
SATURDAY.
OVER THE WEEKEND THE UPPER TROUGH IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER
FULLY CUTS OFF, WITH A POTENT NOR'EASTER MEANDERING SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND, AND A BLOCKING PATTERN SETTING UP WITH A RIDGE OVER
THE CENTRAL CONUS. IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER, DRY CONDITIONS
LIKELY PERSIST WITH PWAT'S WELL UNDER 1". TEMPERATURES
GRADUALLY WARM TOWARD THE LOWER TO MID 80S ON SUNDAY AFTER
TOPPING OUT AROUND 80 DEGREES ON SATURDAY. OVERALL, A MILD AND
PLEASANT WEEKEND APPEARS TO BE IN STORE.
NEXT WEEK, THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN GETS MORE MURKY AS THE
REMNANTS/MOISTURE OF WHAT IS CURRENTLY HURRICANE POLO LIKELY
GETS PICKED UP IN THE PREVAILING FLOW AND MAY INTERACT WITH A
SHARP SHORTWAVE DIGGING INTO SOUTHERN CA/THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
DURING THE EARLY TO MID WEEK. WHILE THE EXACT EVOLUTION OF THE
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS UNCERTAIN, ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE AND GLOBAL
MODELS INDICATE AT LEAST A PERIOD OF RIDGING IS LIKELY AHEAD OF
THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH, BRINGING BACK TEMPERATURES NEAR TO
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE VALID TAF
PERIOD.
ONE LINE TAFS FOR ALL TERMINALS AS DRY AIR HAS FILTERED INTO THE
AREA WITH SATELLITE DERIVED PWATS LESS THAN A HALF INCH AND
LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS. THIS WILL LEAD TO CLEAR SKIES CONTINUING
THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD AND WINDS OUT OF THE NORTH, GENERALLY
AROUND 5 KNOTS OR LESS. LOCALIZED RIVER FOG NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION TONIGHT BUT SHOULD NOT CAUSE SIGNIFICANT IMPACT TO THE
TERMINALS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...7/DH
AVIATION...96
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