921
FXUS62 KCAE 161032
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
632 AM EDT THU JUL 16 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 12Z TAF.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. GENERALLY LOW CHANCES OF RAIN THROUGH FRIDAY, FAVORING THE
CSRA WITH A WARMING TREND EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA.
- 2. INCREASED CHANCES OF RAIN OVER THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHEST
CHANCES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: GENERALLY LOW CHANCES OF RAIN THROUGH FRIDAY,
FAVORING THE CSRA WITH A WARMING TREND EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA.
ONLY A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY CONFINED
TO THE CSRA. THE PWAT GRADIENT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WILL GENERALLY
RANGE FROM ABOUT 1.5" TO AROUND 2". SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT FORM
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS/CSRA WILL CARRY POTENTIAL FOR SOME
HEAVIER DOWNPOURS GIVEN HIGH PWATS AND SLOW STORM MOTIONS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING INTO FRIDAY AS BROAD UPPER RIDGING
SPANS THE ENTIRE CONUS. NAEFS CONTINUES TO SHOW 850MB TEMPERATURES
ABOVE THE 99TH PERCENTILE BOTH DAYS WHILE EVEN REMAINING ABOVE THE
90TH PERCENTILE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. 700MB TEMPERATURES
ARE ALSO ABOVE THE 97TH PERCENTILE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
NOTABLY, THE BULLSEYE OF HIGHEST ANOMALIES IS GENERALLY TOWARD THE
COASTLINE AND EASTERN NC, SO PERHAPS EXPECT THE EASTERN MIDLANDS
INTO THE PEE DEE REACH THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES DURING THIS STRETCH.
FROM A SENSIBLE WEATHER PERSPECTIVE, EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO
PUSH BACK INTO THE MID AND UPPER 90S WITH FRIDAY BEING THE WARMEST
DAY. DEWPOINTS WERE ADJUSTED FOR TODAY AND FRIDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR
SOME DEEPER MIXING WHICH WOULD RESULT IN SOME DRIER AIR MIXING DOWN
TO THE SURFACE. STILL, THESE VALUES WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S
AND HEAT INDICES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE BACK ABOVE 100 DEGREES AND
COULD REACH 105 OR HIGHER BY FRIDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2: INCREASED CHANCES OF RAIN OVER THE WEEKEND WITH
HIGHEST CHANCES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
THE PATTERN SHIFTS SLIGHTLY THIS WEEKEND AS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE
UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL SLIDE JUST SLIGHTLY BACK TOWARD THE WEST. THIS
WILL LEAVE AN OPENING IN THE SOUTHEAST THAT MAY ALLOW FOR AN AREA OF
TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP IN THE NORTHEAST GULF. MODELS EJECT
THIS FEATURE QUICKLY ALONG THE SC COAST AND OUT TO SEA, BUT NOT
BEFORE IT BRINGS SOME BETTER KINEMATICS TO THE REGION AND PWATS BACK
OVER 2". THERE MAY ALSO BE A SECONDARY FEATURE THAT MOVES QUICKLY
THROUGH THE REGION FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AND HELPS ENHANCE THE RAIN
THREAT. AS SUCH, THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP IS LIKELY SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. THERE MAY BE A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER
ON SUNDAY AS WELL GIVEN THESE CONDITIONS (BETTER SHEAR, STRONGER
WINDS, SHORTWAVE ENERGY). ALSO OF NOTE, NHC CONTINUES TO CARRY A 20%
AREA ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN GULF INTO THE CAROLINA'S COASTLINE FOR
POSSIBLE TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH
BRIEF VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS THIS MORNING.
A FRONT REMAINS SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
DEEP LAYER DRY AIR GENERALLY IN PLACE. BRIEF FOG THIS MORNING
MAY LEAD TO TEMPORARY VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AT TIMES, ALTHOUGH
FOG REMAINS VERY SHALLOW AND AS A RESULT, EXPECTING ANY
RESTRICTIONS TO DISSIPATE QUICKLY THIS MORNING. WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND STORMS NOT EXPECTED TODAY, ALTHOUGH A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR STORMS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE AUGUSTA TERMINALS, BUT
PROBABILITY AT THIS POINT IS BELOW 30 PERCENT. SCATTERED CUMULUS
AROUND 5KFT EXPECTED LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS MORNING INCREASING TO AROUND 5
KNOTS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...POTENTIAL FOR RESTRICTIONS FROM
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN THIS WEEKEND.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...EC
AVIATION...96
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