217
FXUS62 KCAE 261648
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1248 PM EDT SAT SEP 26 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
LOWERED DEW POINTS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TOMORROW AND LOWERED
LOW TEMPS FOR TONIGHT. AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 18Z
TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES
INITIALLY NEAR NORMAL WARMING BACK ABOVE NORMAL BY THE MID
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK WITH
TEMPERATURES INITIALLY NEAR NORMAL WARMING BACK ABOVE NORMAL BY
THE MID WEEK.
DRY AIR (PWAT'S BELOW 0.50") CONTINUES TO BE FILTERED INTO THE
REGION DUE TO THE NOR'EASTER AFFECTING THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW
ENGLAND AREAS THIS WEEKEND. THIS IS LEADING TO PLENTIFUL
SUNSHINE AND LOW DEW POINTS (CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA). TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO TOP
OUT NEAR AVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE NOR'EASTER MEANDERING
THE NEXT FEW DAYS DUE TO A BLOCKING PATTERN, EXPECT SIMILAR
CONDITIONS AS WE HEAD INTO THE NEW WORK WEEK. ADDITIONALLY,
EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD YIELD COOL CONDITIONS THE
NEXT COUPLE NIGHTS WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S,
WITH SOME AREAS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 40S TONIGHT AGAIN.
HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK, THE BLOCKING PATTERN FROM THE CLOSED
UPPER LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE NOR'EASTER ALONG WITH THE CENTRAL
CONUS RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN AS A SHARP TROUGH LIKELY DIGS
INTO THE WESTERN US. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO INTERACT WITH
THE REMNANT MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE POLO AS IT SHIFTS FROM THE
PACIFIC INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION, THUS SOME UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS IN THE EXACT EVOLUTION OF THE TROUGH. DESPITE THIS,
THERE IS CONTINUED AGREEMENT ACROSS GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MODELS THAT
GRADUAL 500MB HEIGHT RISES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE FA INTO THE
MID WEEK, BRINGING TEMPERATURES BACK TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
MOISTURE SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE AS WELL WITH RETURNING
SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW, BUT MOSTLY DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED MUCH OF THE WEEK.
TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD IS WHEN THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH COULD BEGIN SHIFTING INTO THE CENTRAL
CONUS AND POSSIBLE SUPPRESSION OF THE UPPER RIDGE COULD AID IN
BRINGING BACK AT LEAST ISOLATED DIURNAL SHOWER CHANCES.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
RELATIVELY QUIET TAF PERIOD WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE VALID TAF
PERIOD.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA, ALONG WITH A VERY DRY AIRMASS,
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS
AT ALL TAF LOCATIONS. EXCEPTION MAY BE BRIEF SHALLOW
GROUND/RIVER FOG AT AGS, BUT NOT ENOUGH IMPACT TO PLACE IN THE
TAF. WINDS GENERALLY OUT OF THE NORTH BETWEEN 5-10 KNOTS THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON HOURS, BECOMING MOSTLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM
AGAIN OVERNIGHT.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...29
AVIATION...73
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