922
FXUS62 KCAE 231937
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
237 PM EST SUN FEB 23 2020
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN THE FORECAST AREA TODAY, AND
THEN OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST MONDAY. THERE WILL BE INCREASED
MOISTURE MONDAY AND TUESDAY IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT
WILL BE IN THE AREA WEDNESDAY. THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL OCCUR AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONTINUED HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING OVER THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH NEARLY ZONAL WESTERLY 500MB
FLOW DOWNSTREAM OF A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLIDE EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN TO AROUND 60 DEGREES WITH THE WARMING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND FILTERED SUNSHINE THROUGH THE HIGHER
CLOUDS.
TONIGHT, ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES OVER THE AREA AS CLOUDS
INCREASE, THICKEN AND LOWER THROUGH THE NIGHT AT THE ATMOSPHERE
BEGINS TO SATURATE WITH BACK SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT,
DOWNSTREAM OF THE UPPER TROUGH. THE INCREASED CLOUDS WILL LIMIT
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND EXPECT MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S. THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT RAIN THAT
DEVELOPS DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS AS ISENTROPIC LIFT STRENGTHENS
BUT THINK RAIN WILL GENERALLY HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER MONDAY
MORNING. WILL STILL GO AHEAD AND CARRY SOME LOW POPS LATE
TONIGHT MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS
WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY. AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD INTO
THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT WHILE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION
FROM THE DEEP SOUTH. MOISTURE WILL DEEPEN MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISING TO NEAR 1.5 INCHES
WHICH IS 225 PERCENT OF NORMAL. THE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY WITH INCREASING ISENTROPIC
LIFT AND WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD MONDAY NIGHT. WPC HAS INCLUDED A
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA IN ITS DAY 2 MARGINAL RISK OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK. THE HIGHEST QPF IS EXPECTED IN THE
CSRA WITH AROUND 1.5 INCHES FORECAST. THERE MAY BE LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS WHICH COULD LEAD TO FLOODING ISSUES ALONG SMALL
STREAMS MAINLY IN PARTS OF BURKE COUNTY WHERE HEAVIEST RAINS AND
FLOODING ISSUES HAVE OCCURRED RECENTLY. A FLOOD WATCH MAY BE
REQUIRED. A NON- DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TREND IS FORECAST MONDAY
NIGHT WITH THE WARM FRONT IN THE AREA. HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE
LOWER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION ON TUESDAY BEFORE WEAKENING AND STALLING. DEEP MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT EARLY TUESDAY
BEFORE DRIER AIR BEGINS FILTERING IN BEHIND THE FRONT. BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON, THE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE EAST OF THE STALLED
BOUNDARY IN THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA AND ALONG
THE COAST. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS
BUT GIVEN THE SHALLOW MOISTURE, HELD OFF INCLUDING THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER
60S TO AROUND 70.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY
BRINGING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK
AND INTO THE WEEK. THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL BE EAST OF THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY, SO CHANCE POPS APPEAR REASONABLE. IT WILL
BE BREEZY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, SO A LAKE WIND ADVISORY MAY
BE NEEDED. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTHWEST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MAY AFFECT
THE AREA ON SATURDAY, BUT THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WAS LESS
THAN 15 PERCENT.
AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT THEN
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER 15Z FROM WEST TO EAST.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST OVERNIGHT AND A RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING MOISTURE BACK TO THE REGION. AS
THE ATMOSPHERE SATURATES CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND CIG HEIGHTS
ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER THROUGH THE NIGHT. STRONGER ISENTROPIC
LIFT ARRIVES LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AND EXPECT CIGS TO FALL
TO MVFR AFTER 15Z WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN OVERSPREADING THE REGION
THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD. CIGS COULD DROP TO
IFR NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST BUT THINK THAT WILL OCCUR
BEYOND THIS FORECAST TIME FRAME.
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AROUND
5 TO 7 KNOTS THEN BECOME NEARLY CALM OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL
SLOWLY PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AFTER 15Z MONDAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO
THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES, CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TO
IFR OR LOWER LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. RESTRICTIONS MAY
CONTINUE AT TIMES THROUGH WEDNESDAY UNTIL A COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE REGION.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
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