038
FXUS62 KCAE 261810
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
210 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MINIMAL CHANGE TO KEY MESSAGES. AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR
18Z TAF.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY BEFORE DRIER CONDITIONS MOVE IN FOR THE LATE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
- 1. A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY BEFORE DRIER CONDITIONS MOVE IN FOR THE LATE WEEK.
THE NOW DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS THE FA
ALONG THE I-26 CORRIDOR AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE IS MOVING INTO THE
REGION, INCREASING EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES TOWARD 20-30 KTS.
INSTABILITY IS RATHER MARGINAL (MLCAPE VALUES UP TO ~1800 J/KG),
BUT DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS WITH PWAT'S PUSHING 2.20-2.30".
ISOLATED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED TOWARD THE SOUTHEASTERN
MIDLANDS AND SHOULD CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE INCREASED
SHEAR, CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONGER CELL, BUT THE MAIN RISK WITH
THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO WORK IN MONDAY WITH PWATS FALLING
TOWARD 1.60-1.80" AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES A BIT MORE
NORTHERLY, ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE DAY. OVERALL, THIS SHOULD
BRING A MOSTLY DRY DAY ACROSS THE CWA OUTSIDE OF POSSIBLY AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO. THE PATTERN BECOMES A BIT MORE AMPLIFIED
HEADING INTO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE ROBUST UPPER RIDGE
CENTERED OVER THE ROCKIES GRADUALLY RETROGRADES WESTWARD WITH A
DEEPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC WITH 500MB HEIGHTS
NEAR THE LREF 2ND PERCENTILE. A SHORTWAVE PUSHING OUT OF THE
BASE OF THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO HELP DRAG A SURFACE FRONT
INTO THE REGION BY LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, BUT AHEAD OF
THIS, MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN WITH EC
ENSEMBLE AND GEFS PWAT'S REACHING BACK NEAR 2". SOUTHWESTERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD ALSO AID IN BRINGING HOT/HUMID CONDITIONS
TUESDAY. THE STRONGER KINEMATICS WITH THIS SYSTEM STILL APPEAR
TO KEEP NORTH OF THE FA IN 12Z GUIDANCE, OVERALL LIMITING THE
SEVERE RISK. AT LEAST MODEST EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES TOWARD THE
PEE DEE COULD BRING AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORM TUESDAY
EVENING, BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS LOW. THE FRONT THEN IS SHOWN
WORKING THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
BEHIND IT USHERING IN DRIER AIR. RAINFALL EXPECTATIONS IN THE
TUESDAY- WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME HAVE NOT CHANGED ALL TOO MUCH WITH
ANY ACTIVITY LIKELY BEING FAIRLY SCATTERED AT BEST AND MAINLY IN
THE TUESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WINDOW.
SOME OF THE DRIEST AIR IN AT LEAST THE LAST 3-4 WEEKS IS
PROGGED TO MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT THANKS TO THE DEEP UPPER
TROUGH WITH MEAN LREF PWATS DROPPING TO UNDER 1.50" AND PERHAPS
EVEN UNDER 1.25" AT TIMES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS IS FURTHER
SUPPORTED LOOKING ACROSS MEMBERS IN THE EC ENSEMBLE AND GEFS.
DUE TO THIS, NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED. GLOBAL MODELS ARE HINTING THAT AS THE UPPER RIDGE
CONTINUES TO RETROGRADE TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS REGION INTO THE
WEEKEND, ANOTHER SHORTWAVE COULD BEGIN NEARING THE SOUTHEAST IN
THIS NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME. THIS COULD BRING BACK RAIN CHANCES,
BUT IT IS WORTH NOTING THERE REMAINS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN LREF
CLUSTERS IN THE PROGRESSION OF THIS SHORTWAVE.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION THROUGH 06Z THEN
RESTRICTIONS IN FOG AND STRATUS POSSIBLE.
DRIER MID LEVEL AIR IS MOVING INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF A
SHORTWAVE THAT IS DRIVING SCATTERED STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. OGB
LIKELY TO BE MOST AFFECTED BY STORMS AND WILL INCLUDE A TEMPO
FOR STORMS 18Z-22Z WHILE VCSH INCLUDED AT OTHER TERMINALS WITH
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN STORMS IMPACTING TERMINALS. GENERALLY
NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 5 KNOTS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNSET THEN
DIMINISHING TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR CALM OVERNIGHT. SOME DEBRIS
CLOUDS MAY LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT BUT SHOULD THIN WITH ONLY
SOME HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED. THE COMBINATION OF DRIER AIR ALOFT
AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SOME CLEARING OF SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH
A LACK OF ANY LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD FAVOR SOME PREDAWN FOG,
ESPECIALLY AT PRONE AREAS OGB/AGS. HI-RES GUIDANCE AND NBM FAVOR
RESTRICTIONS AT OGB/CAE/CUB SO CARRYING PREVAILING MVFR VSBYS
THERE AFTER 08Z WITH TEMPO TO IFR VSBYS AND LIFR CIG BUT LESS
CONFIDENCE AT DNL/AIK SO KEPT VFR PREVAILING THERE.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS UNLIKELY EARLY THIS
COMING WEEK. BY LATE TUESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY, RAIN CHANCES
BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN WITH ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DH
AVIATION...23
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