621
FXUS62 KCAE 072349
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
749 PM EDT FRI AUG 7 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
DAILY AFTERNOON STORM CHANCES AND INCREASING HEAT/HUMIDITY
CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK. AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 00Z
TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, SOME STRONG, EACH DAY.
- 2. INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
- 1. DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, SOME STRONG, EACH DAY.
ONSHORE SURFACE FLOW IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE STRONG BERMUDA
HIGH ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
PROVIDING SIGNIFICANT SURFACE MOISTURE TO THE REGION. DEWPOINTS
ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 70S OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS AND INTO NEXT WEEK, WITH DAILY SBCAPE VALUES MORE
THAN SUFFICIENT TO YIELD DIURNAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE ALL BUT DIMINISHED THIS
EVENING WITH ANY ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY ENDING SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET. A SIMILAR PICTURE IS LIKELY TO BE PAINTED OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS AS WE CONTINUE TO RESIDE ON THE SOUTHWESTERN SIDE OF
THIS EXPANSIVE SURFACE HIGH. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS FORECAST TO
BUILD IN BY NEXT WEEK, LIKELY HELPING TO KEEP SHOWERS/STORMS
MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED IN NATURE, BUT THE DAILY CHANCES WILL
REMAIN. THERE IS A SIGNAL, ALBEIT INCONSISTENT, THAT A DEEPER
TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO THE EASTERN CONUS BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK,
HELPING TO POSSIBLY INCREASE STORM COVERAGE AGAIN. STRONG
STORMS WILL BE A POSSIBILITY EACH DAY AS CAPE WILL BE SUFFICIENT
FOR WET MICROBURSTS IN THE STRONGEST CONVECTION.
- 2. INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.
A LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BEGIN
DEVELOPING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, WITH 90TH PERCENTILE
500 HPA HEIGHTS OVERSPREADING THE AREA BY SUNDAY. WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW COMMON AND AFTERNOON STORM COVERAGE EXPECTED
TO LOWER A BIT BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE FORECAST
TO BUMP UP INTO THE MID 90S. WITH PERSISTENTLY HIGH DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOW TO MID 70S, LREF GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A HIGH
LIKELIHOOD OF DAILY, PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUE EXCEEDING 100F. WHILE
THIS ISN'T AT HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA, IT ISN'T CRAZY TO THINK WE
MAY HAVE A DAY OR TWO NEXT WEEK WHERE WE APPROACH 105F-108F FOR
AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES. BE SURE TO PRACTICE GOOD HABITS
WHEN DEALING WITH THE HEAT NEXT WEEK!
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
IFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT AND DRY AIR ALOFT SHOULD YIELD ANOTHER NIGHT
OF RESTRICTIONS THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. HREF GUIDANCE
SHOWS STRATUS PUSHING IN FROM THE COAST OVERNIGHT WITH SE FLOW
IN PLACE. WE WOULD EXPECT THIS TO LEAD TO MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AT
ALL TERMINALS WITH HIGHEST CONFIDENCE AT OGB. REDUCED
VISIBILITIES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE, ALTHOUGH WITH NO TAF SITES
RECEIVING HEAVY RAIN TODAY ANY FOG MAY NOT BE AS DENSE AS THE
PREVIOUS NIGHT. RESTRICTIONS SHOULD LIFT BY 13Z OR 14Z AGAIN
WITH LIGHT SE WINDS FROM 5 TO 10 KTS THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
CAMS, WHICH HANDLED TODAY'S CONVECTION WELL, SHOW LITTLE
COVERAGE FOR SATURDAY SO WE HAVE KEPT ANY MENTION OF TS OUT OF
THE TAFS AT THIS POINT.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A SEASONAL PATTERN OF EARLY MORNING
RESTRICTIONS AND DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS IS LIKELY THROUGH MUCH
OF THE EXTENDED.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ND/PL
AVIATION...CJR
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