123
FXUS62 KCAE 190604
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
204 AM EDT MON OCT 19 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MINIMAL CHANGE TO KEY MESSAGE. AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR
06Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK WITH
TEMPERATURES THAT WARM TO NEAR NORMAL BY THE MID TO LATE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK
WITH TEMPERATURES THAT WARM TO NEAR NORMAL BY THE MID TO LATE
WEEK.
THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS WEEK AND INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. IN A WORD, THE FORECAST IS DRY. REINFORCING HIGH
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE
MID WEEK AS A GENERAL TROUGHING PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS. BY THE LATE WEEK, A DEEP TROUGH SHOULD PUSH INTO
THE WESTERN US, AMPLIFYING A RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE
COUNTRY AND PUSHING THIS RIDGE SLOWLY EASTWARD. OVERALL, THIS
SYNOPTIC PATTERN FAVORS THE PERSISTENCE OF A DRIER AIRMASS OVER
THE REGION WHERE LREF PROBABILITIES FOR PWAT'S LESS THAN 0.50"
EXCEED 60-80% THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
AS THE RIDGE SLOWLY WORKS TOWARD THE FA, AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH NEAR NORMAL BY THE MID TO
LATE WEEK, CONTINUING THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. IT
IS WORTH NOTING THAT ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT
WITH STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WHERE LOWS BACK INTO
THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S WILL BE POSSIBLE.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS TODAY, OTHERWISE VFR.
A 30 TO 35 KT LLJ WILL MIX DOWN SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE ALLOWING
FOR NE GUSTS AFTER 14Z. LLWS MAY BE POSSIBLE PRIOR TO THAT IF
WINDS GO NEAR CALM AT THE TAF SITES. EXPECT NE WINDS AROUND 10
KNOTS AFTER 14Z WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS THROUGH 18Z OR SO
BEFORE SUBSIDING THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON. AFTER THAT, WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING WITH LIGHT WINDS
OVERNIGHT. GIVEN THE DRY AIR IN PLACE, FOG OR STRATUS IS
UNLIKELY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD
RESTRICTIONS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS LOW.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DH
AVIATION...CJR
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