152
FXUS62 KCAE 222354
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
754 PM EDT MON JUN 22 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED KEY MESSAGE TO REFLECT THE LATEST CONVECTIVE TRENDS.
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 00Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN EXPECTED THIS WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN EXPECTED THIS
WEEK.
EARLY EVENING RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING CONTINUED ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION IN AN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MLCAPE
VALUES STILL AROUND 1500-2000 J/KG BUT WEAKLY SHEARED. STORMS
HAVE BEEN FIGHTING RISING HEIGHTS MOST OF THE DAY THAT IS
CHANGING WITH THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CROSSING THE TN VALLEY AT THIS TIME. MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION
IS MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN GA AND SOUTHWEST NC ASSOCIATED WITH
THE HEIGHT FALLS, BUT LATEST RUNS OF HRRR CONTINUE TO DIMINISH
THIS CONVECTION BEFORE REACHING OUR FORECAST AREA LATER TONIGHT
AS ATMOSPHERE STABILIZES. WE REMAIN UNDER A MARGINAL RISK OF
SEVERE WEATHER. SOME ADDITIONAL CHANCES OF RAIN MAY INCREASE
AGAIN AROUND 12Z AS THE UPPER TROUGH AND WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
CROSS THE REGION.
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK,
FEATURING HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WITH ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING CONVECTION. BRIEF RIDGING DEVELOPS WEDNESDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WEAKNESS IT. A SURGE OF MOISTURE INCREASES ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LEADING TO HIGHER RAIN CHANCES. RIDGING
RETURNS AND STRENGTHENS INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND PUSHING
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 90S, WITH SOME GLOBAL MODELS
SUGGESTING UPPER 90S POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING,
OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING THROUGH
CENTRAL GA AND THE CAROLINA'S. MOST OF THE COVERAGE REMAINS TO
OUR WEST AND NORTH, NOT ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE CURRENT TAF
ISSUANCE. SOME HI-RES MODELS INDICATE A FEW STORMS COULD MOVE
CLOSER TO THE TAF SITES THROUGHOUT THE EVENING AND INTO THE
NIGHT, HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW FOR ANY IMPACTS OR
INCLUSION AT THIS TIME. MOST CONVECTION SHOULD CLEAR OUT BY 06Z
WITH ANY RESTRICTIONS LIFTING AFTER.
WINDS TURN SLIGHTLY TO MORE WESTERLY BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING.
WINDS ALSO REMAIN GUSTY, UP TO 20 KNOTS, WITH A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS/STORMS AROUND DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS THE FRONT
FULLY MOVES ON TOP OF THE FA. DIURNAL CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE
AGAIN TOMORROW, OTHERWISE MAINLY DRY AND CLEAR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK,
DIURNALLY-DRIVEN WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...7/23
AVIATION...ND
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