401
FXUS62 KCAE 161736
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1236 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2025
SYNOPSIS
SHORTWAVE RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO BRING A WARMING TREND THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES CREEPING BACK CLOSER TO
NORMAL. THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN ARRIVES THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION. DRIER WEATHER
IS THEN EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO MODERATE TODAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT OFFSHORE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY AS LOW LEVEL FLOW IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY
SOUTHWESTERLY. A VERY DRY AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON (DEW POINTS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS) BUT
MOISTURE SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES, SOME MODERATION WILL OCCUR AS
AFTERNOON HIGHS REACH INTO THE 50S ACROSS THE FA. TONIGHT,
CLOUD COVER WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE, ESPECIALLY TOWARD WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE RAMPS UP. WHILE STRONG COOLING
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EARLY IN THE NIGHT, INCREASING CLOUD
COVER WILL LIKELY LIMIT HOW FAR OVERNIGHT LOWS CAN DROP SO LOWS
OF THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S MAY BE REACHED BETWEEN 2-4 AM BEFORE
LEVELING OFF OR SLIGHTLY RAISING NEAR DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- HIGH PRESSURE AND WARMING TEMPS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY.
- WIDESPREAD RAIN AND BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY AS A FRONT
MOVES THROUGH.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ON WEDNESDAY, LEADING TO
INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY; GUSTS 20-25 MPH
ARE EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON. AS HEIGHTS RISE AND BROAD WARM
ADVECTION DEVELOPS WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW, TEMPS WILL
FINALLY RISE BACK ABOVE AVERAGE, INTO THE LOW 60'S IN MANY
SPOTS. THE PATTERN WILL FURTHER AMPLIFY AS WE MOVE INTO THURSDAY
AS A STRONG TROUGH DIGS INTO THE CENTRAL US. STRONG MOISTURE
ADVECTION WILL RAMP UP THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH PWAT'S CLIMBING
ABOVE 1.4". ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL INCREASE ALONG WITH THE
INCREASING PWAT'S SO SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE IN THE
MORNING, THEN BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. RAINFALL TOTALS INTO THE EVENING SHOULD GENERALLY
BE IN THE 0.25-0.75" RANGE. THE FRONT ITSELF AND ASSOCIATED
FORCING WILL PULL TOO FAR NORTH FOR MUCH IN THE WAY PRECIP FROM
THE SURFACE FRONT OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY. AS FOR WINDS, THE COLD
ADVECTION AND DEEPENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL HELP BRING SOME
GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH WITH THE FRONT, BUT AGAIN THE STRONGER
PRESSURE FALLS AND FORCING WILL BE TO OUR NORTH.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- COOL AND BREEZY ON FRIDAY BEHIND THE FRONT, FOLLOWED BY CALM AND
SEASONAL WEATHER.
THE FRONT FROM THURSDAY WILL PUSH THROUGH AND BRING SOME NOTABLE
COLD ADVECTION ACROSS THE AREA FOR FRIDAY WITH BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPS EXPECTED. THE PATTERN QUICKLY FLATTENS AND BECOMES MORE
ZONAL ACROSS THE ENTIRE EASTERN US OVER THE WEEKEND AS A DEEP
RIDGING ERODES THE PERSISTENT TROUGHING THAT HAD LINGERED OVER
THE EASTERN US. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK WITH
PWAT'S REMAINING TOO LOW FOR ANY PRECIP CHANCES AND NEUTRAL
ADVECTION, SO NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 5-9 KTS ARE SLOWLY PICKING UP EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING BEFORE
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. A DRY
AIRMASS SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY FOG RISK TONIGHT AND VFR CONDITIONS
LIKELY CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. CLEAR SKIES SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT BEFORE SCT CIRRUS BEGIN MOVING IN,
BECOMING BKN TO OVC LATER WEDNESDAY MORNING AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON AS UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES. WINDS WEDNESDAY
MORNING AND TO THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD PICK BACK UP AROUND
6-10KTS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO INCREASE AND RAIN CHANCES MOVE INTO THE AREA. AFTER
THIS, DRIER AIR LOOKS TO FILTER IN FOR THE WEEKEND, BRINGING
BACK LOW CHANCES FOR RESTRICTIONS.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
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