270
FXUS62 KCAE 082348
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
748 PM EDT SAT AUG 8 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 00Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, SOME STRONG, EACH DAY.
- 2. INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
- 1. DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, SOME STRONG, EACH DAY.
MORE OF THE SAME PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. ONSHORE SURFACE FLOW, IN CONJUNCTION WITH A
STRONG BERMUDA HIGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO
PROVIDE SIGNIFICANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE REGION. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE THIS WEEKEND,
WITH THE FOCUS SHIFTING CLOSER TO THE COAST AS THE RIDGE BEGINS
TO FLATTEN. HOWEVER, DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE LOW
TO MID 70S OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. DAILY SBCAPE VALUES
SHOULD ALSO REMAIN MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT DIURNAL
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, SO THE POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION WILL REMAIN DESPITE THE OVERALL DECREASE
IN COVERAGE. STRONG STORMS ARE CAPABLE EACH DAY, AS SUFFICIENT
CAPE WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR WET MICROBURSTS WITHIN THE
STRONGEST CONVECTION.
- 2. INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.
A LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BEGIN
DEVELOPING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, WITH 90TH PERCENTILE
500 HPA HEIGHTS OVERSPREADING THE AREA BY SUNDAY. WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW COMMON AND AFTERNOON STORM COVERAGE EXPECTED
TO LOWER A BIT BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE FORECAST
TO BUMP UP INTO THE MID 90S. WITH PERSISTENTLY HIGH DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOW TO MID 70S, LREF GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A HIGH
LIKELIHOOD OF DAILY, PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUE EXCEEDING 100F. WHILE
THIS ISN'T AT HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA, IT ISN'T CRAZY TO THINK WE
MAY HAVE A DAY OR TWO NEXT WEEK WHERE WE APPROACH 105F-108F FOR
AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES. THIS SHOULD BECOME MORE LIKELY BY
THURSDAY, FRIDAY AND SATURDAY OF NEXT WEEK AS 95TH-99TH
PERCENTILE HEIGHTS ARE SHOWN BY THE LREF GUIDANCE. AN EFI SIGNAL
FOR HEAT EXISTS IN THIS TIMEFRAME AND INDIVIDUAL GLOBAL MODEL
SHOW A MORE SUSTAINED LULL IN PRECIP CHANCES. AS A RESULT, THE
MOST INTENSE HEAT OF THE PERIOD IS LIKELY TO ARRIVE BY THE END
OF THIS UPCOMING WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING, THEN POSSIBLE
STRATUS/FOG AGAIN DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS.
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE ENVIRONMENT OVERALL WITH PLENTY OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH GENERAL UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ALOFT.
SOME CONVECTION ALONG SURFACE TROUGH NORTHWEST OF THE AREA
SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING. SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE TO AROUND 3 KNOTS OR LESS OVERNIGHT BEFORE
PICKING UP AGAIN AFTER 15Z SUNDAY FROM THE SOUTH. GUIDANCE IS
MIXED WITH STRATUS/FOG FORMATION BUT GIVEN LITTLE CHANGE IN
ENVIRONMENT WILL CONTINUE MORE OF A PERSISTENCE FORECAST AND
HAVE A PERIOD OF RESTRICTIONS IN A TEMPO GROUP. ISOLATED
CONVECTION EXPECTED AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON BUT COVERAGE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THIS FORECAST.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A SEASONAL PATTERN OF EARLY MORNING
RESTRICTIONS AND DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS IS LIKELY THROUGH MUCH
OF THE EXTENDED.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...PL
AVIATION...23
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