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FXUS62 KCAE 251041
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
641 AM EDT FRI SEP 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 12Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. COOLER BUT DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY RETURN TO NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES
NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: COOLER BUT DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY RETURN TO NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL
VALUES NEXT WEEK.
WEDGE CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE GRADUALLY ERODING ALREADY EARLY
THIS MORNING AS NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS IMAGERY REVEALS THE
STRATO-CU DECK SLOWLY BREAKING UP, ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE SC/NC
BORDER. THIS COMES AS A PUSH OF DRY AIR IN SEEN INTO NC WHERE
SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE FALLING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S. THIS IS
LARGELY DUE TO THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH PIVOTING OFFSHORE
WITH NORTHERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW NOW ENSUING. DESPITE
GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES TODAY, FAIRLY WEAK BUT PERSISTENT CAA
SHOULD KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. THIS SHOULD
ALSO BRING ANOTHER MUCH COOLER NIGHT WHERE OVERNIGHT LOWS INTO
SATURDAY MAY FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S. A COUPLE SPOTS
NEARING THE MID 40S IS NOT OUT OF QUESTION. OVER THE WEEKEND,
THE UPPER TROUGH FULLY CUTS OFF, WITH A CUT OFF LOW MEANDERING
OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST, KEEPING A GENERAL TROUGHING PATTERN
OVER THE REGION AS A BIT OF A BLOCKING PATTERN SETS UP WITH THE
RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AND ANOTHER CUT OFF LOW NEAR
BRITISH COLUMBIA/ALBERTA CANADA. IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER,
DRY CONDITIONS LIKELY PERSIST WITH PWAT'S WELL UNDER 1", BUT
TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARM TOWARD THE LOW TO MID 80S. OVERALL,
A MILD/NICE WEEKEND APPEARS TO BE IN STORE.
NEXT WEEK, THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN GETS MORE MURKY AS THE
REMNANTS/MOISTURE OF WHAT IS CURRENTLY HURRICANE POLO LIKELY
GETS PICKED UP IN THE PREVAILING FLOW AND MAY INTERACT WITH A
SHARP SHORTWAVE DIGGING INTO SOUTHERN CA/THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
DURING THE EARLY TO MID WEEK. WHILE THE EXACT EVOLUTION OF THE
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS UNCERTAIN, ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE AND GLOBAL
MODELS INDICATE AT LEAST A PERIOD OF RIDGING IS LIKELY AHEAD OF
THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH, BRINGING BACK TEMPERATURES NEAR TO
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE VALID TAF
PERIOD.
SATELLITE IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING IS SHOWING CLEAR OR MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA. DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY, ENSURING SKC AT ALL TERMINALS.
SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE N-NELY WITH A FEW GUSTS OF 15-20
KTS AT TIMES TODAY. WINDS THEN DECOUPLE THIS EVENING, BECOMING LIGHT
AND VARIABLE TO CALM FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DH
AVIATION...EC
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