222
FXUS62 KCAE 172335
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
735 PM EDT SAT OCT 17 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 00Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. MUCH COOLER AIR AND BREEZY CONDITIONS FILTER IN BEHIND AN
EXITING COLD FRONT FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. A LAKE WIND
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: MUCH COOLER AIR AND BREEZY CONDITIONS FILTER IN
BEHIND AN EXITING COLD FRONT FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. A LAKE
WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN BEHIND THE STRONG COLD
FRONT, WITH NORTHEASTERLY WINDS A BIT WEAKER THAN EARLIER, BUT
GUSTS TOWARD 15-20 ARE STILL BEING NOTED. ON SUNDAY, AN UPPER
CUTOFF LOW AND ASSOCIATED OFFSHORE SURFACE LOW ARE FORECAST TO
DEVELOP, KEEPING THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA.
THIS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN ANOTHER DAY OF BREEZY WINDS, BUT A
SHIFT TO MORE NORTHEASTERLY FOR THE DAY. DUE TO THIS, A LAKE
WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 8 PM SUNDAY. IN ADDITION
TO THE BREEZY WINDS, STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION BRINGS MUCH
COOLER AND DRIER AIR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AS TEMPS
ARE FORECAST TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY, STAYING
MAINLY IN THE 60S. SOME OF THE LATEST GUIDANCE HAS BEEN COMING
IN SLIGHTLY WARMER FOR SUNDAY COMPARED TO PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS.
OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CHILLY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
BOTH TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT, DROPPING INTO THE LOWER 40S EACH
NIGHT.
AFTER THE WEEKEND, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO SETTLE
INTO THE AREA WITH UPPER RIDGING BUILDING SLIGHTLY OVERHEAD. AS
A RESULT, QUIET WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR THE WORKWEEK ALONG WITH
A WARMING TREND TO NEAR NORMAL BY LATE IN THE WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY CONTINUES TO BUILD
INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. A COASTAL LOW IS DEVELOPING OFFSHORE
ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND AN INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL KEEP GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY.
WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED THIS EVENING AND SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 4 TO
7 KNOTS OVERNIGHT FROM THE NORTHEAST BUT WILL PICK UP AFTER 10Z
TO AROUND 10 TO 13 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OVER 20 KNOTS THROUGH THE
DAY SUNDAY. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR AS A SIGNIFICANTLY
DRIER AIR MASS BUILDS INTO THE REGION. NO FOG/STRATUS CONCERNS
GIVEN THE MUCH DRIER AIR IN PLACE AND A MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PROBABILITY OF RESTRICTIONS
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS LOW.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR SCZ016-018-
020>022-025>031-035-037-038-041-115-116-135>137.
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR GAZ040-063>065-
077.
DISCUSSION...DH/29
AVIATION...23
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