514
FXUS62 KCAE 271132
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
732 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 12Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. DRIER CONDITIONS AND WARMING
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO START NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED EACH DAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. DRIER CONDITIONS AND
WARMING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO START NEXT WEEK.
THERE HAS NOT BEEN MUCH CHANGE IN THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
ROUND OF MODEL GUIDANCE. PWAT'S REMAIN BETWEEN 1.80-2.0" ACROSS
THE FA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS IN PORTIONS
OF THE CSRA. REGIONAL WV IMAGERY REVEALS TROUGHING SETTING UP
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN TENNESSEE VALLEY. OVERALL, A FAIRLY SIMILAR DAY TO
YESTERDAY IS EXPECTED WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND SCATTERED
DIURNAL CONVECTION AS MLCAPE VALUES NEAR 2000 J/KG. THE SEVERE
RISK IS LOW, BUT IT IS WORTH NOTING RAP/HRRR/RRFS SOUNDINGS
INDICATE NEAR 30 KTS OF CLOUD LAYER SHEAR SHOULD BE IN PLACE
THIS AFTERNOON AS ENHANCED MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOWS MOVES IN. THIS
COULD ALLOW A FEW STORMS TO SUSTAIN THEMSELVES AND BRING A LOW
END RISK FOR A COUPLE STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OR AN
INSTANCE OF SUB-SEVERE HAIL GIVEN SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN NORMAL
FREEZING LEVELS. LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
WELL WITH EFFICIENT RAIN RATES EXPECTED IN CONVECTION.
MUCH OF THE SAME IS EXPECTED FRIDAY, EXCEPT A FRONT NEARING THE
AREA THROUGH THE DAY COULD AID IN BRINGING A MORE FOCUSED AREA
FOR CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING, ESPECIALLY TOWARD
THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FA. A COUPLE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN AS EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES NEAR 20-25
KTS WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING IN. TEMPERATURES LIKELY
REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE REGION NOW FINDS
ITSELF ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER TROUGH, BUT DIURNAL
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED EACH DAY. A BIT OF A PATTERN SHIFT IS
THEN EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A STRONG RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER
THE WESTERN US SLIDES EASTWARD, STRENGTHENING TOWARD THE NAEFS
97.5TH PERCENTILE. THIS FEATURE SHOULD BRING LOWER RAIN CHANCES,
BUT TEMPERATURES 5-8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL COULD BE POSSIBLE AS
SEEN IN NBM IQR RANGES. RETURNING HEAT INDICES ABOVE 100F COULD
BE POSSIBLE AS WELL WITH LREF PROBABILITIES BETWEEN 50-60% BY
TUESDAY.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
RESTRICTIONS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW STRATUS, PATCHY FOG, AND LIGHT
RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE PAST SUNRISE THIS MORNING.
ADDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS FROM CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING.
RADAR SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY EAST OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER
AND INTO THE MIDLANDS OF SC. ENOUGH ACTIVITY TO INCLUDE AT LEAST
SOME MENTION OF VCSH THROUGH 14Z, AND A TEMPO THROUGH THAT
PERIOD ALSO TO INCLUDE ACTUAL PERIOD OF SHOWERS AT ALL SC SITES.
CEILINGS WILL BE IFR THROUGH THAT TIME ALSO, WITH IMPROVEMENT
BACK TO MVFR BETWEEN 14-17Z, THEN A RETURN TO VFR FOR THE
AFTERNOON. SCATTERED CONVECTION IS ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED BY THE
EARLY AFTERNOON, MOST LIKELY BETWEEN 17Z THROUGH 23Z, POSSIBLY
LASTING EVEN SLIGHTLY LATER. ACTIVITY SHOULD BE DIMINISHING BY
02Z, WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
ONCE AGAIN. ANOTHER ROUND OF CEILING RESTRICTIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AGAIN AFTER 06Z TONIGHT, BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH THAT FAR OUT TO PLACE IN TAFS QUITE YET.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DH
AVIATION...73
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