739
FXUS62 KCAE 261054
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
654 AM EDT SAT SEP 26 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 12Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH
TEMPERATURES INITIALLY NEAR NORMAL WARMING BACK ABOVE NORMAL
BY THE MID WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES INITIALLY NEAR NORMAL WARMING BACK ABOVE
NORMAL BY THE MID WEEK.
AS PREVIOUSLY DISCUSSED, STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS
AND WEAK CAA SHOULD BRING COOL MORNING LOWS TOWARD THE UPPER 40S
TO LOW 50S NEAR DAYBREAK (TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY IN THE LOW
TO MID 50S AS OF WRITING THIS). AFTER THIS, DRY AIR (PWAT'S
BELOW 0.50") REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES TODAY AND SUNDAY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. DECENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD YIELD COOL CONDITIONS THE NEXT COUPLE
NIGHTS WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. HEADING INTO
NEXT WEEK, THE BLOCKING PATTERN FROM THE CLOSED UPPER LOW IN
THE NORTHEAST AND CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN AS A
SHARP TROUGH LIKELY DIGS INTO THE WESTERN US. THIS FEATURE IS
EXPECTED TO INTERACT WITH THE REMNANT MOISTURE FROM WHAT IS NOW
HURRICANE POLO AS IT SHIFTS INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION, THUS
SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE EXACT EVOLUTION OF THE TROUGH.
DESPITE THIS, THERE IS BETTER AGREEMENT ACROSS GLOBAL NWP/AI
MODELS THAT GRADUAL 500MB HEIGHT RISES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE FA
INTO THE MID WEEK, BRINGING TEMPERATURES BACK SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL. MOISTURE SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE AS WELL WITH
RETURNING SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW, BUT MOSTLY
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED MUCH OF THE WEEK.
TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD IS WHEN THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH SHOULD BEGIN SHIFTING INTO THE CENTRAL
CONUS AND POSSIBLE SUPPRESSION OF THE UPPER RIDGE COULD AID IN
BRINGING BACK AT LEAST ISOLATED DIURNAL SHOWER CHANCES.
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE VALID TAF
PERIOD.
SKC CONTINUES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH WINDS OUT OF THE NORTH,
GENERALLY AROUND 6 KNOTS OR LESS. BRIEF LOCALIZED RIVER FOG NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION THIS MORNING, BUT SHOULD NOT CAUSE SIGNIFICANT
IMPACT TO THE TERMINALS. SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAY MOVE IN FROM THE WEST
LATE THIS EVENING.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DH
AVIATION...EC
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