254
FXUS62 KCAE 181048
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
648 AM EDT TUE AUG 18 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 12Z UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. THE STRETCH OF DANGEROUS HEAT CONTINUES.
- 2. STORM COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED AGAIN TODAY, WITH
INCREASING POTENTIAL LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: THE STRETCH OF DANGEROUS HEAT CONTINUES.
A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TODAY USHERING IN SLIGHTLY
DRIER LOW-LEVEL AIR, ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF I-20. HAVING
SAID THAT, FORECAST HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID-90S TO AROUND 100
DEGREES TODAY SO APPROPRIATE HEAT PRECAUTIONS NEED TO BE MADE
DURING PEAK HEATING HOURS, EVEN FOR THE COUNTIES NOT INCLUDED IN
TODAY'S HEAT ADVISORY. LOCATIONS ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-95
CORRIDOR AS EXPECTED TO SEE THE HIGHEST HEAT INDEX VALUES TODAY,
WHICH COULD APPROACH 110 DEGREES. THE DANGEROUS SUMMER HEAT AND
HUMIDITY CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY WITH MAX HEAT INDICES AROUND
105 DEGREES EACH DAY SO WHICH OUR ADVISORY CRITERIA MAY NOT BE
MET, SIGNIFICANT RELIEF FROM THE HEAT REMAINS UNLIKELY UNTIL
THE WEEKEND WHEN THE RIDGE FINALLY BREAKS DOWN AND THERE WILL BE
INCREASED CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.
KEY MESSAGE 2: STORM COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED AGAIN TODAY, WITH
INCREASING POTENTIAL LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
A CAPPING INVERSION SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY IS EXPECTED AGAIN
TODAY ACROSS THE FA, WHICH SHOULD LIMIT ANY CONVECTION DESPITE
WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG A SURFACE FRONT. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE
HEAT AND HUMIDITY IN PLACE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT, ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COASTAL
PLAIN. SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH
AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE,
WITH WIDESPREAD CONVECTION FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A
ROBUST MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE EASTERN CONUS AND DEEP
LAYER SOUTHWEST FLOW LEADING TO INCREASED MOISTURE.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. AN ISOLATED
STORM IS POSSIBLE BUT IMPACTS TO THE TERMINALS ARE UNLIKELY.
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE THEN PICK UP AROUND MIDDAY
OUT OF THE WEST-NORTHWEST FROM 5 TO 10 KTS. A FEW CUMULUS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AN ISOLATED SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT IN THE AFTERNOON
OR EVENING BUT COVERAGE WILL BE SO LOW THAT CONVECTION WAS NOT
MENTIONED IN THE TAFS. WINDS WILL GO LIGHT OR CALM AGAIN AROUND
00Z. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AT AGS BUT
HIGH AND MID CLOUDS OVERNIGHT SHOULD SUPPRESS WIDESPREAD FOG
CONCERNS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...DIURNAL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
INCREASE EACH DAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR SCZ016-022-027>031-035-037-038-041-135>137.
GA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR GAZ064-065-077.
DISCUSSION...7
AVIATION...CJR
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