995
FXUS62 KCAE 241829
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
229 PM EDT TUE MAR 24 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
A RED FLAG ALERT FROM THE SCFC AS WELL AS A FIRE DANGER
STATEMENT ARE NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE STATE DUE TO THE
INCREASED FIRE DANGER. PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEK
HAVE GENERALLY DECREASED. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS RETURN FOR THE
WEEKEND. AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 18Z TAFS
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND YESTERDAY'S
FRONT.
- 2. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE LATE WEEK BEFORE
TEMPERATURES FALL CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH A BACKDOOR FRONT
MOVING IN LATE FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND
YESTERDAY'S FRONT.
A DRY AIRMASS HAS SETTLED INTO THE AREA AFTER YESTERDAY'S FRONT.
HOWEVER, DEW POINTS ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN
EXPECTED, RESULTING IN RH VALUES GENERALLY RUNNING IN THE 35-40%
RANGE. TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO RISE A FEW DEGREES THIS
AFTERNOON AND ADDITIONAL MIXING SHOULD DROP THE DEW POINTS AND
RESULTANT RH VALUES TO TO THE 20-25% RANGE. WINDS HAVE BEEN
GRADUALLY DECREASING, BUT WE'RE STILL SEEING REGULAR GUSTS IN THE 15-
20 MPH RANGE. THUS, INCREASED FIRE DANGER CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, THUS A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH
8 PM TONIGHT. THE SOUTH CAROLINA FORESTRY COMMISSION HAS ALSO ISSUED
A RED FLAG ALERT FOR THE ENTIRE STATE. THEREFORE, CAUTION SHOULD BE
EXERCISED WITH ANY ACTIVITY THAT COULD SPARK A FIRE THIS AFTERNOON,
EVEN FOR THOSE IN OUR GEORGIA COUNTIES.
KEY MESSAGE 2: A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE LATE WEEK
BEFORE TEMPERATURES FALL CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH A BACKDOOR FRONT
MOVING IN LATE FRIDAY.
A COOL AFTERNOON AND NIGHT (TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN
AVERAGE) CAN BE EXPECTED. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA COULD DIP DOWN TO THE MID TO UPPER 30S AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. THERE IS SOME QUESTION JUST
HOW COLD IT WILL GET; HOWEVER, AS SOME HIGH CLOUDS AND SOME WIND IN
THE BOUNDARY LAYER COULD HINDER IDEAL COOLING CONDITIONS SOMEWHAT.
AFTER TONIGHT, A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK AS RIDGING SLIDES OVER THE AREA FROM THE WEST. BY FRIDAY, THE
500 MB HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO BE ABOVE THE NAEFS 97.5 PERCENTILE
OVER THE AREA, AIDING IN TEMPS BEING WELL ABOVE AVERAGE ONCE AGAIN.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT ANOTHER STRONG,
ALBEIT MOSTLY DRY, FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO
EARLY SATURDAY. AS OF NOW, JUST SOME SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION EXIST IN THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA WITH THIS FRONT,
WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE AT THIS POINT DUE IN PART TO THE TIMING OF
IT. BEHIND THIS FRONT, MODELS ARE INDICATING VERY STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE (NAEFS NEAR THE CLIMATOLOGICAL MAX) MOVING IN, CAUSING A
PRETTY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT RESULTING IN GUSTY WINDS. CONFIDENCE
IS ALSO FAIRLY HIGH AT THIS POINT THAT VERY DRY AIR MOVES IN AS
WELL, RESULTING IN ADDITIONAL FIRE DANGER CONCERNS AS WE HEAD INTO
THE WEEKEND. WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE MONITORING FOR ANY WIND AND/OR
FIRE HIGHLIGHTS.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL PROVIDE DRY
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AT THE
TERMINALS. AN AREA OF LOW TO MID CLOUDS ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF A
WEAK WAVE CURRENTLY FORMING ON THE COLD FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH
LAST EVENING HAS MOVED INTO OGB AND IS FLIRTING WITH AGS AND DNL,
BUT CIG HEIGHTS ARE SQUARELY IN VFR TERRITORY AT 4-5K FEET, SO NO
RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED. WIND WILL DROP TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE
HIGH SINKS A BIT SOUTHWARD INTO EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. A BATCH OF
CIRRUS ASSOCIATED WITH A JET STREAK ALOFT WILL MOVE OVERHEAD AND
STICK WITH US INTO WEDNESDAY, BUT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT, USHERING IN ANOTHER REINFORCING COOL AND DRY AIR MASS
FOR THE WEEKEND. SOME GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY BEHIND THE
FRONT.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...29
AVIATION...FA
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