998
FXUS62 KCAE 142347
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
747 PM EDT SUN JUN 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED KEY MESSAGE 1. AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 00Z
TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS EARLY TONIGHT MAY LEAD TO
DAMAGING WINDS.
- 2. UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUING INTO THE WORK WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS EARLY TONIGHT MAY LEAD TO
DAMAGING WINDS.
ONE MAIN BATCH OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAS MOVED EAST
OF THE FORECAST ARE EARLY THIS EVENING, WITH A LULL IN THE
ACTIVITY FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN GEORGIA WILL BE MOVING INTO THE CSRA TOWARDS 9-10 PM.
WITH MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA SOMEWHAT WORKED OVER FROM PRIOR
CONVECTION, WOULD NOT EXPECT ACTIVITY TO BE AS STRONG AS EARLIER
THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER WE STILL CAN NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
STRONG/SEVERE STORM THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
KEY MESSAGE 2: UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUING INTO THE WORK WEEK.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD PASS THROUGH THE AREA BY MONDAY
ALLOWING FOR DRIER AIR TO WORK OVER THE FA. SO MONDAY LOOKS TO
HAVE LOWER CONVECTIVE COVERAGE THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. BEYOND
THAT, PERSISTENTLY HIGH IVT (90TH PERCENTILE PER NAEFS) SHOULD
AID IN KEEPING THINGS UNSETTLED THROUGH MID WEEK. BY THE END OF
THIS UPCOMING WEEK, IT APPEARS THAT ANOTHER FRONT MAY MAKE IT
INTO THE AREA & ANOTHER FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS
OVERNIGHT.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE PASSED THE TERMINALS TO START
THIS TAF PERIOD. ANOTHER ROUND OF ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY MOVING
INTO NORTHEASTERN GA AND THE UPSTATE OF SC. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
ON WHETHER THIS ACTIVITY WILL MAKE IT TO THE MIDLANDS/CSRA
TERMINALS, SO HAVE KEPT THE PROB30 GROUP THE SAME FOR NOW.
OUTSIDE OF THESE STORMS, VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SOUTHWEST WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED OVERNIGHT, GENERALLY IN
THE 4-7 KT RANGE. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH BRINGS SOME
ELEVATED LLWS OVERNIGHT AROUND 25 KTS, BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN
BELOW THRESHOLDS TO INCLUDE INTO THE TAFS. AFTER THE FRONT
PASSES, WINDS SHIFT TO MORE WESTERLY AT TERMINALS ALONG WITH
SOME GUSTS IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE AFTER ABOUT 14Z OR 15Z.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH MID
WEEK ALONG WITH POSSIBLE ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS WITH A STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CJR/73
AVIATION...29
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