702
FXUS62 KCAE 131045
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
645 AM EDT SAT JUN 13 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 12Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL INCREASE
THE RISK OF HEAT-RELATED ILLNESS.
- 2. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER POTENTIALLY
CONTINUING INTO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL
INCREASE THE RISK OF HEAT-RELATED ILLNESS.
WE CONTINUE TO SEE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY AND ON SUNDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS SITUATED ATOP
THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. THIS IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY BEGIN
BREAKING DOWN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS TROUGHING PUSHES
EASTWARD. HOWEVER, AHEAD OF THIS, A VERY WARM AIRMASS REMAINS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. 850 HPA TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE
90TH PERCENTILE BOTH TODAY AND SUNDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. THE AIRMASS ATOP THE AREA IS NOT PARTICULARLY
MOISTURE RICH, WHICH IS HELPING TO PREVENT THIS FROM BEING A
PARTICULARLY STIFLING STRETCH OF HEAT ACROSS THE AREA. STILL,
THIS IS RELATIVELY UNUSUAL FOR MID JUNE. HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE
FORECAST TO BE 103F-106F ACROSS THE AREA BOTH TODAY AND ON
SUNDAY, WITH LOW-LEVEL DEWPOINTS MIXING PREVENTING US FROM
SEEING WIDESPREAD HEAT INDICES >108F (OUR HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA). BECAUSE OF THIS, AND EXPECTED CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, OPTED TO HOLD OFF ON
ISSUING A HEAT ADVISORY. STILL, THE HEAT WILL REMAIN DANGEROUS
AND PRECAUTIONS ARE ADVISED TODAY AND SUNDAY. IF YOU HAVE ANY
OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES PLANNED, PLEASE PLAN THEM FOR THE MORNING OR
EVENING WHEN TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT COOLER.
KEY MESSAGE 2: THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER POTENTIALLY
CONTINUING INTO NEXT WEEK.
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, WITH
MAYBE A SLIGHT DECREASE IN RAIN CHANCES DURING THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK COMPARED TO PREVIOUS FORECASTS. A WEAK BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED TO HANG OUT ACROSS THE AREA TODAY, SPECIFICALLY HELPING
TO FOCUS CONVECTION ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA. THE COMBINATION OF THIS AND THE SEA BREEZE
MAY YIELD SCATTERED STORMS IN THE COASTAL PLAIN THIS EVENING
WITHIN A PRETTY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR STRONG STORMS. IT
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING TO SEE A SEVERE STORM WITH >1000 J/KG OF
MLCAPE, INVERTED V SOUNDINGS, DCAPE OF 1000-1200 J/KG, AND TEI
OF 24-28. STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD BUT GIVEN
THAT ENVIRONMENT, THE STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP MAY BE STRONG. A
MORE FOCUSED FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY,
POTENTIALLY PROVIDING AN IMPETUS FOR MORE CONVECTION. GUIDANCE
IS MIXED ON OVERALL COVERAGE AS A SHORTWAVE MAY MOVE THROUGH AT
AN UNFAVORABLE TIME OF DAY, YIELDING SOME SUBSIDENCE. THIS FRONT
SHOULD HANG UP OR MOVE THROUGH THE AREA IN THE MONDAY-WEDNESDAY
TIMEFRAME, PROVIDING RELIEF FROM THE HOT TEMPS. HOWEVER, IT IS
UNCLEAR AT THIS POINT HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT WILL ACTUALLY
SINK. TEND TO THINK THE FRONT WILL END UP CLOSER TO THE FORECAST
AREA, HELPING TO KEEP RAIN CHANCES A BIT MORE ELEVATED THAN
NORMAL. THIS IS ESPECIALLY THE CASE WITH MORE WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW SETTING UP ATOP THE AREA AS A TROUGH AXIS DIGS INTO THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL US. ADDITIONALLY, PERSISTENTLY HIGH IVT (90TH
PERCENTILE PER NAEFS) SHOULD AID IN KEEPING THINGS UNSETTLED
EARLY AND MID WEEK. BY THE END END OF THIS UPCOMING WEEK, IT
APPEARS THAT ANOTHER FRONT MAY MAKE IT INTO THE AREA & ANOTHER
FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE 24 HR FORECAST PERIOD.
SATELLITE INDICATING CONTINUED CIRRUS CLOUDS OVER THE AREA AND
THERE HAS BEEN SOME INTERMITTENT MVFR VSBYS IN GROUND FOG. WILL
MAKE A LAST MINUTE DECISION TO INCLUDE ANY TEMPOS FOR BRIEF FOG
12Z-13Z. A WEAK BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT SOUTH THROUGH THE
AREA TODAY WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS PICKING UP TO AROUND 5
TO 7 KNOTS FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST AFTER 14Z AND THEN SHIFT
MORE TO THE WEST BY 18Z THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. STRONG
RIDGING SHOULD ALLOW FOR ANOTHER HOT DAY WITH DIURNAL CUMULUS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION MAINLY FOCUSED IN
THE COASTAL PLAIN AND EASTERN MIDLANDS AFTER 20Z SO INCLUDED A
PROB30 AT OGB. OTHERWISE WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE WITH SUNSET WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF DEBRIS CLOUDS IN THE EVENING.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED DIURNAL
SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE LATER AGAIN ON SUNDAY. GREATER RAIN
CHANCES ARE EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH POSSIBLE ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...PL
AVIATION...23
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