936
FXUS62 KCAE 271714
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
114 PM EDT SUN SEP 27 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST OUTLOOK OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 18Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES
INITIALLY NEAR NORMAL WARMING BACK ABOVE NORMAL BY THE MID
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK WITH
TEMPERATURES INITIALLY NEAR NORMAL WARMING BACK ABOVE NORMAL BY
THE MID WEEK.
LITTLE HAS CHANGED IN THE OUTLOOK THROUGH AT LEAST THE MID
WEEK. THE UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED NOR'EASTER IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO MEANDERING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT WITH LOW
LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW KEEPING DRY AIR IN PLACE. THIS SHOULD
KEEP MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE AREA, BRINGING MORNING LOWS TO
THE LOWER TO POTENTIALLY MID 50S NEAR DAYBREAK. IT WOULDN'T BE
TOO SURPRISING TO SEE SOME LOCATIONS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 40S
ONCE AGAIN MONDAY MORNING. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WARM
TO AROUND NORMAL, IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. HEADING THROUGH THE
WORK WEEK, A BLOCKING PATTERN LIKELY PERSISTS THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY AS A STRONG TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE SW CONUS, INTERACTING
WITH REMNANT MOISTURE FROM WHAT IS CURRENTLY HURRICANE POLO.
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT RIDGING SHOULD
GRADUALLY SHIFT OVERHEAD WITH ASSOCIATED WARMING TEMPERATURES
DURING THE MID WEEK WHERE TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S
TO LOWER 90S WILL BE POSSIBLE. IN GENERAL, THIS PATTERN FAVORS
CONTINUED MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS, THOUGH DEEPER MOISTURE IS
FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WORK BACK TOWARD THE REGION DURING THE
MID TO LATE WEEK WITH PWAT'S POTENTIALLY EXCEEDING 1". BY THE
LATE WEEK AND INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND, THE RIDGE AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH MAY BECOME INCREASINGLY SUPPRESSED AS
THE SW CONUS TROUGH PUSHES EASTWARD, POSSIBLY BRINGING BACK
SHOWER/STORM CHANCES.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD.
OUTSIDE OF A FEW PASSING HIGH CIRRUS TODAY, EXPECT SKC. HIGH
PRESSURE AND A VERY DRY AIRMASS WILL PROMOTE VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT ALL TAF SITES. WEST-NORTHWEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL RETURN TO
LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT, CONTINUING INTO
MONDAY MORNING.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...29
AVIATION...SF
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