370
FXUS62 KCAE 231723 CCA
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
123 PM EDT SUN AUG 23 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
LOWERED DEWPOINTS NORTH AND WEST OF I-20 AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES
INTO THE REGION. UPDATED 18Z AVIATION.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WITH AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
EACH DAY THIS WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WITH AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES EACH DAY INTO NEXT WEEK.
AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED CUMULUS STARTING TO
DEVELOP, MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR. A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDAY IS USHERING IN DRIER AIR INTO THE FA. AS A
RESULT, OPTED TO LOWER BOTH DEWPOINTS AND POPS FOR MUCH OF THE
REGION. MODELED SOUNDINGS AND MESOANALYSIS DATA SHOW AMPLE CAPE
AND DCAPE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY BUT ANY THUNDERSTORM
WILL HAVE TO OVERCOME THE MID-LEVEL DRY AIR MOVING IN ORDER TO
DEVELOP. EXPECTING ISOLATED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP
DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS, WITH THE GREATEST PROBABILITY ALONG
AND SOUTHEAST OF I-95. ANY ROBUST THUNDERSTORM THAT FORMS HAS
THE POTENTIAL TO APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS AND PRODUCE SMALL HAIL
AND STRONG DOWNBURSTS WINDS, SO TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED AS THE
DAY GOES ON. WITH DECREASING PWATS, THE FLASH FLOOD RISK IS LOW.
GENERALLY QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF THE WEEK AS A RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE. RAIN
CHANCES SHOULD STAY LOW THROUGH TOMORROW, WITH ONLY ISOLATED
DIURNALLY DRIVEN THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY PART OF
THE WEEK. MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM MID TO LATE
WEEK, RESULTING IN A TREND TOWARD HIGHER AFTERNOON STORM
COVERAGE. LREF PROBABILITIES INDICATE A 50-70 PERCENT CHANCE OF
PWAT VALUES EXCEEDING 1.75 INCHES FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD. UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGHING WILL ALSO BEGIN TO SHIFT INTO THE REGION,
SUPPORTING INCREASING MOISTURE AND GREATER CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS. WEAK SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW SHOULD
ALSO PROVIDE ADDITIONAL FORCING FOR CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WARM AS THIS OVERALL PATTERN PERSISTS
INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
MAINLY VFR EXPECTED, WITH BRIEF MVFR VISIBILITIES IN PATCH
BR/FG TOWARDS SUNRISE.
DRIER AIR IS FILTERING INTO THE AREA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGHEST DEWPOINTS AND MOISTURE SEEMINGLY CONFINED TO THE
EASTERN MIDLANDS, SOUTHERN CSRA, AND THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
SC/GA. THIS SHOULD LIMIT ANY SHOWER FORMATION FOR THE MAJORITY
OF THE TAF LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGHEST
PROBABILITY WOULD BE AT KOGB, WITH AN ISOLATED SHOWERS NOT
COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION. ELSEWHERE COVERAGE GENERALLY
LESS THAN A 10 PERCENT IF ANYTHING COULD DEVELOP. PROBABILITIES
NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT EVEN PLACING IN THE TAFS AT THIS
TIME. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT, THEN BECOMING MORE WESTERLY AROUND 5 KNOTS TOWARDS 15Z
MONDAY. WITH LIMITED MOISTURE OVERNIGHT, DO NOT EXPECT ANY
WIDESPREAD FOG, EVEN WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS. BEST AREAS FOR
ANY BRIEF VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AROUND SUNRISE WILL BE NEAR
BODIES OF WATER, WITH ANY FORMATION BEING SHALLOW, BRIEF, AND
REMAIN PATCHY AT BEST.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...ISOLATED STORMS EACH AFTERNOON WITH
HIGHER COVERAGE OF STORMS EXPECTED BY MIDWEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...7
AVIATION...73
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