702
FXUS62 KCAE 012323
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
723 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
LINE OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AND STORMS CONTINUES MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA, CAUSING LOCALIZED FLOODING. AVIATION
DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 00Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN RETURNING NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
- 1. RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN RETURNING NEXT WEEK.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON HAVE CONGEALED INTO
A BROAD LINE WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN. THE THREAT FOR STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS HAS DIMINISHED, BUT THE FLASH FLOODING THREAT
CONTINUES INTO THIS EVENING. AT THE TIME OF THIS UPDATE, THERE
HAVE BEEN REPORTS OF FLASH FLOODING IN THE SUMTER AREA. AS THIS
LINE OF ACTIVITY GRADUALLY SLIDES TO THE EAST, AND LOSES DAYTIME
HEATING, THE FLASH FLOODING THREAT SHOULD SLOWLY DIMINISH AFTER
DARK.
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INCREASING TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A SHORTWAVE OVER
NORTHERN FLORIDA IS FORECAST TO EJECT NORTHEASTWARD, BRINGING
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY. AS OF NOW,
THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN MIDLANDS AND SOUTHERN CSRA AS THE SHORTWAVE IS
ANTICIPATED TO MOVE NEAR THE COAST. SIMILAR TO TODAY, ANY ROBUST
CONVECTION COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL, AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.
AFTER THE WEEKEND, MORE TYPICAL DIURNALLY DRIVEN ACTIVITY IS
ANTICIPATED THROUGH MID-WEEK AS RESIDUAL MOISTURE HANGS AROUND
THE AREA.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS TO BEGIN THE TAF PERIOD, THEN INTERMITTENT
RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED INTO TONIGHT MOVE THROUGH THE REGION.
VFR CEILINGS ARE BEING NOTED AT THE TERMINALS CURRENTLY, WITH
INTERMITTENT VIS REDUCTIONS DUE TO RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS.
EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO SLIDE EASTWARD AND WANE IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. OGB HAS THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF BEING AFFECTED BY THE
ACTIVITY THROUGH ROUGHLY 03Z. A LULL IN THE ACTION IS THEN
EXPECTED UNTIL THE NEXT ROUND OF POTENTIAL SHOWERS AND STORMS
RETURNS IN THE AFTERNOON. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO IFR,
POTENTIALLY LIFR OVERNIGHT AFTER THE RAIN ENDS BEFORE IMPROVING
AGAIN AFTER DAYBREAK. WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE LIGHT FROM
THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, INCREASING TO
8-10 KTS AFTER 18Z. A FEW HIGHER NON-THUNDERSTORM GUSTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS WELL IN THAT TIME FRAME.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PERIODIC RAIN AND RESTRICTIONS
CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...7/29
AVIATION...29
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