041
FXUS62 KCAE 071749
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
149 PM EDT FRI AUG 7 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL FORECAST, WITH DAILY AFTERNOON
STORM CHANCES AND INCREASING HEAT/HUMIDITY NEXT WEEK. AVIATION
DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 18Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, SOME STRONG, EACH DAY.
- 2. INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
- 1. DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, SOME STRONG, EACH DAY.
ONSHORE SURFACE FLOW IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE STRONG BERMUDA
HIGH ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
PROVIDING SIGNIFICANT SURFACE MOISTURE TO THE REGION. DEWPOINTS
ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 70S OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS AND INTO NEXT WEEK, WITH DAILY SBCAPE VALUES MORE
THAN SUFFICIENT TO YIELD DIURNAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. WE'RE SEEING A NICE INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH PUSH
THROUGH THE COASTAL PLAIN THIS AFTERNOON, FORCING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A SIMILAR PICTURE IS LIKELY TO BE
PAINTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS WE CONTINUE TO RESIDE ON THE
SOUTHWESTERN SIDE OF THIS EXPANSIVE SURFACE HIGH. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING IS FORECAST TO BUILD IN BY NEXT WEEK, LIKELY HELPING TO
KEEP SHOWERS/STORMS MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED IN NATURE, BUT
THE DAILY CHANCES WILL REMAIN. THERE IS A SIGNAL, ALBEIT
INCONSISTENT, THAT A DEEPER TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO THE EASTERN
CONUS BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK, HELPING TO POSSIBLY INCREASE
STORM COVERAGE AGAIN. STRONG STORMS WILL BE A POSSIBILITY EACH
DAY AS CAPE WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR WET MICROBURSTS IN THE
STRONGEST CONVECTION.
- 2. INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.
A LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BEGIN
DEVELOPING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, WITH 90TH PERCENTILE
500 HPA HEIGHTS OVERSPREADING THE AREA BY SUNDAY. WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW COMMON AND AFTERNOON STORM COVERAGE EXPECTED
TO LOWER A BIT BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE FORECAST
TO BUMP UP INTO THE MID 90S. WITH PERSISTENTLY HIGH DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOW TO MID 70S, LREF GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A HIGH
LIKELIHOOD OF DAILY, PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUE EXCEEDING 100F. WHILE
THIS ISN'T AT HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA, IT ISN'T CRAZY TO THINK WE
MAY HAVE A DAY OR TWO NEXT WEEK WHERE WE APPROACH 105F-108F FOR
AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES. BE SURE TO PRACTICE GOOD HABITS
WHEN DEALING WITH THE HEAT NEXT WEEK!
AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
MIX OF VFR WITH SCATTERED STORMS AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS
THIS AFTERNOON.
TYPICAL SUMMER AFTERNOON UNFOLDING WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE REGION. COVERAGE IS MODEST SO ONLY INCLUDED A MIX OF
VICINITY TS AND PROB30S, OUTSIDE OF OGB, FOR THE TIME BEING;
STORM CHANCES ARE LOWER AT AGS AND DNL, BUT POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING. RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN ANY SHOWERS- STORMS
WITH GUSTY VARIABLE WINDS AND REDUCED VSBY. THESE WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR ALL TAF SITES. OVERNIGHT
AND INTO SATURDAY, ADDITIONAL CIG RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY WITH
IFR OR LIFR STRATUS IN THE MORNING.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH ADDITIONAL EARLY MORNING
RESTRICTIONS ALSO POSSIBLE EACH DAY.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...PL
AVIATION...42
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