654  
FXUS62 KCAE 211754  
AFDCAE  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC  
154 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS  
 
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE  
MIDLANDS AND CSRA WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL  
TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN HOLDS OFF UNTIL THE  
LATE WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
 
 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/  
 
KEY MESSAGE(S):  
 
- CLEAR AND BREEZY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A MOSTLY DRY FRONT  
LATER THIS EVENING.  
 
AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE  
SOUTHEAST REMAINS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE NEAR TERM. A  
SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MAIN TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE  
OVER THE REGION OVERNIGHT, SENDING A SURFACE COOL FRONT ACROSS  
THE AREA. WITH THE DRYNESS OF THE AIRMASS, NOT EXPECTING ANY  
SHOWERS AS IT PASSES THE AREA. HOWEVER, THERE IS A VERY LOW  
(~10%) CHANCE OF A ROGUE SHOWER IN THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS OR  
PEEDEE. AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH, REINFORCING DRY AIR WITH  
PWATS AROUND A THIRD OF AN INCH MOVE INTO THE AREA. A FEW GUSTS  
OF 25 MPH OR SO ARE ALSO POSSIBLE, BUT ARE NOT ANTICIPATED TO  
PERSIST BEYOND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. WITH THE ELEVATED WINDS  
OVERNIGHT, LOWS ARE NOT FORECAST TO BE AS COOL AS LAST NIGHT.  
 
 
   
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/  
 
KEY MESSAGE(S):  
 
- COOLER AND DRY WITH CHILLY OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES.  
 
BROAD UPPER TROUGHING WILL DRIVE A DRY AND COOL FORECAST THROUGH  
THURSDAY NIGHT. BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT, PWAT VALUES SHOULD FALL  
BACK BELOW 0.5" WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING AT THE SURFACE. OUTSIDE  
OF SOME SLIGHTLY ELEVATED WESTERLY WINDS WEDNESDAY, WITH GUSTS  
AROUND 15 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON, THE WEATHER WILL BE OVERALL QUIET  
WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AND NIGHTTIME  
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. NORMALLY COLD AND SHELTERED  
LOCATIONS MAY BRIEFLY SEE READINGS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S EACH  
MORNING.  
 
 
   
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/  
 
KEY MESSAGE(S):  
 
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
 
- NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN LATE THIS WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE TO OUR NORTHEAST INTO THIS WEEKEND, WITH  
ZONAL FLOW GIVING WAY TO SLIGHT RIDGING ALOFT BY SUNDAY. A  
DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER,  
SLOWLY INCREASING ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE LEVELS BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO  
MONDAY. PWAT VALUES ARE PROGGED TO EXCEED 1" BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AS  
SUCH, DRY CONDITIONS AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE  
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THERE IS  
INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE LATE  
THIS WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE  
DISTURBANCE MOVES TOWARD THE EAST COAST. HOWEVER, SOME OF THE MORE  
RECENT GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING A LATER ONSET OF PRECIP, SO STILL TIME  
TO HAMMER OUT THE FINER FORECAST DETAILS.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/  
 
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A DRY FRONT MOVES THROUGH.  
 
FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE WEST BRINGS SOME BREEZY  
SOUTHWEST WINDS TO THE TERMINAL THROUGH ABOUT 05Z-06Z. AFTER THE  
FRONT PASSES, WINDS SHIFT TO MORE WESTERLY WITH A FEW INITIAL  
GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS POSSIBLE, BUT SHOULD BE BRIEF. NOT  
ANTICIPATING ANY RAIN AT THE TERMINALS AT THIS TIME. AFTER  
DIMINISHING SOME IN THE MORNING, WESTERLY WINDS INCREASE TO  
AROUND 10 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 15 KTS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE  
TAF PERIOD.  
 
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT AVIATION CONCERNS  
THROUGH LATE WEEK. THE NEXT RAIN POTENTIAL ARRIVES LATE IN THE  
WEEKEND.  
 
 
   
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
SC...NONE.  
GA...NONE.  
 
 
 
 
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