254
FXUS62 KCAE 050552
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
152 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AVIATION
DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 06Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
- 2. CHANCES FOR SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BEGINNING TODAY AND CONTINUING INTO NEXT WEEK. STRONG STORMS
ARE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS IS BASICALLY A BROKEN RECORD OF A KEY MESSAGE BUT LONG
DURATION HEAT EPISODES LIKE THIS ARE THE MOST DANGEROUS. WE HAVE
SEEN SEVERAL DAYS IN A ROW OF HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
90S AT THIS POINT, AND THE STREAK IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THOUGH THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO
BREAK DOWN TODAY AND BE REPLACED WITH A TROUGH TO OUR WEST, 850
HPA TEMPS ARE STILL FORECAST TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL IN THE
19C-22C RANGE THROUGH MID-WEEK. HIGH HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED TO
RETURN BEGINNING TODAY, WITH DEWPOINTS BACK UP INTO THE 70S
DAILY. HEAT INDEX VALUES, DESPITE "LOWER" AFTERNOON HIGHS, ARE
EXPECTED TO BE QUITE HIGH AND MAY APPROACH HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA MULTIPLE TIMES THIS UPCOMING WEEK. THIS WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON DAILY CONVECTION, AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED MUCH OF THE WEEK. BUT IF THESE DON'T MATERIALIZE ONE
DAY FOR WHATEVER REASON, WE MAY END UP NEEDING A HEAT ADVISORY
AGAIN.
KEY MESSAGE 2: CHANCES FOR SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING TODAY AND CONTINUING INTO NEXT WEEK.
STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
A FAIRLY GOOD SETUP FOR SUMMERTIME CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE STRONG RIDGE THAT
HAS PLAGUED THE EASTERN US BREAKS DOWN AND SHIFTS WESTWARD.
GENERAL & SOMEWHAT PERSISTENT TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN
ITS WAKE, WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA CAUSING
MOISTURE VALUES TO RETURN BACK TO NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL VALUES.
PWS OF 110-120% OF NORMAL ARE EXPECTED BEGINNING TODAY AND
LASTING AT LEAST THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO THE PATTERN EVOLUTION BY MIDWEEK,
WITH A RETURN TO SOME LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE THAT HIGHER RAIN
CHANCES RETURN NEXT WEEKEND. ALONG WITH SUMMERTIME STORMS COMES
THE POSSIBILITY FOR STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION, WITH TODAY AND
MONDAY EXPECTED TO HAVE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTS FOR DOWNBURSTS.
MEAN HREF SOUNDINGS REVEAL 1500-2000 J/KG OF CAPE, >1000 J/KG OF
DCAPE, AND >25 TEI BOTH AFTERNOONS. FORCING WON'T BE
PARTICULARLY FOCUSED, BUT CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO ONLY
BE IN THE MID 90S. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN STORMS POPPING UP
PRETTY QUICKLY BY EARLY AFTERNOON BOTH DAYS AND CONTINUING INTO
THE EVENING HOURS. ML GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW ELEVATED
PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE WEATHER, SPECIFICALLY SEVERE WINDS, THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND THIS IS NOW BACKED UP BY ENVIRONMENTS
THAT HI-RES GUIDANCE IS SHOWING. OVERALL, THE THREAT WON'T BE
WIDESPREAD OR ANYTHING BUT EXPECT A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
EVERY DAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVER AT LEAST THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. AS MENTIONED BEFORE, THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH
RESPECT TO PRECIP COVERAGE MIDWEEK BUT IT DOES SEEM MORE LIKELY
THAN NOT THAT WE WILL SEE SOME UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUE FOR
THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. ITS PRETTY DIFFICULT TO GET
LESS UNSETTLED THAN WE HAVE BEEN LATELY!
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR SHOULD DOMINATE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, THOUGH INCREASED
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON MAY LEAD TO BRIEF
RESTRICTIONS.
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS MORNING WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN ANY
RESTRICTIONS THROUGH DAWN. WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH
MIDDAY. SCATTERED STORMS DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WITH BETTER
COVERAGE AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN IMPACTS AT THE TAF
SITES. THIS MAY INCLUDE SOME BRIEF VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN THE
STRONGER STORMS, SO HAVE CONTINUED WITH A PROB30 GROUP AT ALL
TERMINALS FOR -TSRA. THERE MAY BE ADDITIONAL IMPACTS WITH GUSTY
CONVECTIVE WINDS. OTHERWISE, WINDS THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD SHIFT
TO THE SOUTHWEST AT 5-10 KTS. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ARE THEN
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING, THOUGH CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE WITH
THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND WINDS RETURN TO LIGHT AND
VARIABLE.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...DAILY RAIN CHANCES AND POSSIBLE
RESTRICTIONS CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...PL
AVIATION...EC
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