477
FXUS62 KCAE 100030
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
830 PM EDT SUN AUG 9 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
WORDING UPDATED IN KEY MESSAGE #1. AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED
FOR 00Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. ISOLATED DIURNAL STORMS POSSIBLE EACH DAY THIS WEEK, WITH
DIMINISHING CHANCES MIDWEEK. A STRONG STORM CANNOT BE RULED
OUT.
- 2. INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
- 1. ISOLATED DIURNAL STORMS POSSIBLE EACH DAY THIS WEEK, WITH
DIMINISHING CHANCES MIDWEEK. A STRONG STORM CANNOT BE RULED
OUT.
DIURNAL CUMULUS ARE DIMINISHING THIS EVENING WITH ONLY A COUPLE
SHOWERS/WEAK STORMS REMAINING IN LEXINGTON COUNTY AND UP NEAR
LANCASTER COUNTY. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS PUSHING INTO SOUTHERN
LEXINGTON/RICHLAND COUNTIES AS OF WRITING THIS WITH ANOTHER
PUSHING OUT OF THE UPSTATE, CURRENTLY NEAR FAR NORTHERN SALUDA,
NEWBERRY, AND FAIRFIELD COUNTIES. AS THESE BOUNDARIES COLLIDE IN
THE COMING 1- 2.5 HOURS, CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED CONVECTION
DEVELOPING WITH NEAR 2000 J/KG OF MLCAPE STILL REMAINING.
CONFIDENCE IN DEVELOPMENT IS LOW AND THE RISK FOR ANY
STRONG/SEVERE STORM IS MINIMAL. MOSTLY DRY WEATHER IS THEN
EXPECTED TONIGHT.
SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY NEAR SURFACE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, BEFORE BECOMING A BIT MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY LATE IN THE WEEK. OVERALL, WITH THE
REGION REMAINING BETWEEN THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN US AND
THE STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST, SEASONABLE
MOISTURE SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH
SURFACE DEWPOINTS LIKELY REMAINING IN THE LOW TO MID 70S MUCH OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD (AS WELL AS PWAT'S NEAR TO JUST BELOW 2").
THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH STRONG HEATING SHOULD BRING SBCAPE
VALUES GREATER THAN 2000 J/KG MOST DAYS BUT WITH LACKING UPPER
KINEMATICS, CREATING AN ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE FOR SPOTTY TO
ISOLATED PULSE CONVECTION EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH THE THE FIRST
PART OF THE WEEK, THOUGH THE LATEST NBM GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
COME IN DRIER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS FOR THE MIDWEEK TIMEFRAME. AS
IS TYPICAL THIS TIME OF THE YEAR, A STRONG STORM OR TWO CANNOT
BE RULED OUT WITH THE RISK OF STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS, BUT
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS UNLIKELY. A BIT MORE UNCERTAINTY IN
TERMS OF PRECIP CHANCES ENTERS LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
THIS IS DRIVEN BY GREATER SPREAD AMONGST GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC
AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE WITH THE STRENGTH OF A SHORTWAVE MOVING
OUT OF THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND THUS IT'S ABILITY TO PUSH A
SURFACE FRONT NEAR THE REGION. A MORE AMPLIFIED SOLUTION COULD
BRING INCREASED RAIN CHANCES/COVERAGE, BUT DETAILS STILL NEED TO
BE SORTED OUT, WHILE A LESS AMPLIFIED SOLUTION WOULD LEAN MORE
TO LOWER, MORE TYPICAL SUMMER TIME SPOTTY STORMS.
- 2. INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.
THE 500MB HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY RISE THROUGH THE
WEEK, PEAKING NEAR THE NAEFS 90TH PERCENTILE BY THE LATE WEEK.
AS THIS OCCURS, 850MB TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY NEAR 18C SHOULD
RISE TO BETWEEN 20-23C BY THE MID WEEK. WITH THESE WARMING LOW
LEVEL TEMPERATURES, RISING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS, AND THE EXPECTED
SPOTTY NATURE OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION, HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
PROGGED TO PEAK IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S TUESDAY ONWARD. DUE TO
THE UNCERTAINTY IN POTENTIAL TROUGHING BY THIS WEEKEND DISCUSSED
IN KEY MESSAGE #1, LARGER NBM IQR SPREADS EXIST, BUT NEAR
NORMAL TO JUST ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES STILL SEEM LIKELY.
SURFACE DEWPOINTS REMAINING IN THE LOW TO MID 70S THROUGH THE
PERIOD BRING INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN HEAT INDICES RISING BACK
ABOVE 100F WITH LREF PROBABILITIES REACHING ABOVE 70% BY TUESDAY
WITH PROBABILITIES FOR INDICES ABOVE 105F BETWEEN 30-50%
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. OVERALL, CONFIDENCE IN REACHING HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA IS LOW, BUT SPOTS OF 105-108F COULD BE
POSSIBLE MAINLY BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY SO BE PREPARED FOR
RETURNING HOT/HUMID CONDITIONS THIS WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH SOME MORNING STRATUS-FOG
POSSIBLE MONDAY, BUT LESS WIDESPREAD THAN PREVIOUS DAYS.
SOME LATE EVENING CONVECTION CONTINUES TO WANE ACROSS THE
MIDLANDS BUT SOME LINGERING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MAY RESULT IN
POSSIBLE CONVECTION REIGNITING THROUGH 02Z SO INCLUDE A TEMPO
GROUP. SIMILAR CONDITIONS PERSIST OVERNIGHT BUT SOME ADDITIONAL
HIGH CLOUDS MAY LIMIT FOG/STRATUS POTENTIAL AND GUIDANCE IS NOT
SHOWING TOO MUCH TONIGHT COMPARED TO PREVIOUS NIGHTS. WINDS
SHOULD BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE BUT THEN PICKING UP FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AT AROUND 6 TO 8 KNOTS AFTER 15Z. ISOLATED AFTERNOON
CONVECTION AGAIN POSSIBLE.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A
SEASONAL PATTERN OF EARLY MORNING RESTRICTIONS AND DIURNAL
THUNDERSTORMS IS LIKELY THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DH/29
AVIATION...23
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