027
FXUS62 KCAE 020542
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
142 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
A HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR LANCASTER COUNTY FOR
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE UPSTATE AND CHARLOTTE METRO MAY CLIP FAR NORTHERN AND
WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. AVIATION DISCUSSION
UPDATED FOR THE 06Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE, PEAKING DURING THE
INDEPENDENCE DAY WEEKEND.
- 2. INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS
WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE, PEAKING DURING
THE INDEPENDENCE DAY WEEKEND.
LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER HEAT INDEX VALUES
TODAY. CURRENTLY IT APPEARS THAT THE FINGER OF LANCASTER COUNTY IS
MOST LIKELY TO APPROACH THE 108 DEGREE CRITERIA, THEREFORE A HEAT
ADVISORY IS BEING ISSUED FOR THE COUNTY WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.
HEAT INDEX VALUES NORTH AND WEST OF I-20 WILL BE NEAR ADVISORY
CRITERIA MEANING EXTRA CAUTION SHOULD BE TAKEN THERE DURING PEAK
HEATING AS WELL. WILL MONITOR TRENDS TO SEE IF THE HEAT ADVISORY
NEEDS TO BE EXPANDED FURTHER.
STRONG UPPER RIDGE AFFECTING MUCH OF THE EASTERN US WILL CONTINUE TO
BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THE ANOMALOUSLY
STRONG RIDGING WILL COMBINE WITH HIGHLY ANOMALOUS 850MB TEMPERATURES
(ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE) AT OR ABOVE 20C TO PROVIDE HOT
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
LOWERING ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE TOMORROW WITH PWATS FALLING TO AROUND
1.5 INCHES AROUND 50TH PERCENTILE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE DEEP
MIXING TAPPING INTO THE DRIER AIR ALOFT WHICH SHOULD MIX OUT
DEWPOINTS INTO THE 60S RESULTING IN HEAT INDICES BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA, ALTHOUGH THEY ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BE AT OR ABOVE
100 DEGREES.
PWATS ARE FORECAST TO LOWER EVEN FURTHER ON FRIDAY TO AROUND 30TH
PERCENTILE, BUT THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE
CAROLINAS AND MID-ATLANTIC AND TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE A BIT
WARMER, YIELDING HEAT INDICES IN THE 100-105 RANGE. CONTINUED HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100 DEGREES OVER THE WEEKEND
MAY NECESSITATE THE NEED FOR HEAT RELATED PRODUCTS FOR THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND AS HUMIDITY RISES FURTHER DUE TO INCREASINGLY SOUTHERLY LOW-
LEVEL FLOW. WHILE TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY LOWER EARLY NEXT
WEEK, THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAT PRODUCTS CONTINUES DUE TO INCREASED
HUMIDITY.
CONTINUE TO EXERCISE CAUTION WHEN SPENDING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
TIME OUTDOORS AND MAKE SURE TO TAKE APPROPRIATE HEAT SAFETY MEASURES
DURING THE NEXT 7 DAYS. THE ELDERLY, YOUNG CHILDREN, AND THOSE
WITHOUT INDOOR COOLING WILL BE AT PARTICULAR RISK.
KEY MESSAGE 2: INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE
THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE OVERALL FORECAST. LATEST CAMS SUGGEST
CONVECTION WILL FIRE THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN THE UPSTATE AND CHARLOTTE
METRO AREA. WHILE NOT SHOWN IN THE DETERMINISTIC FORECAST, THIS
ACTIVITY COULD CLIP THE FAR NORTHERN AND WESTERN COUNTIES.
OTHERWISE, A DRY FORECAST IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY.
ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE IMPACTING THE
EASTERN STATES WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND BREAK DOWN SUNDAY INTO NEXT
WEEK AS RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND PLAINS
STATES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME WEAK HEIGHT FALLS AND SHORTWAVE
ENERGY TO MOVE INTO THE REGION. ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL BE MUCH
HIGHER WITH PWATS BACK UP AROUND 2 INCHES SUPPORTING STRONGER
INSTABILITY AND BETTER CHANCES FOR CONVECTION. SOME OF THE ML SEVERE
GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT WITH TYPICAL EARLY MORNING MIFG
POSSIBLE AT AGS/OGB, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW FOR ANY MENTION IN
THE TAFS. A 15 TO 20 KT LOW LEVEL JET THIS MORNING SHOULD PRECLUDE A
MORE WIDESPREAD FOG THREAT. RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY WITH
FEW-SCT CUMULUS DEVELOPING BY MIDDAY INTO THE EVENING. SKIES THEN
RETURN TO SKC TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS GENERALLY OUT OF
THE E/SE AT 5 TO 8 KTS AFTER 16Z, RETURNING TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE
THIS EVENING.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RAINFALL UNLIKELY THROUGH AT LEAST
FRIDAY AS RIDGING BUILDS OVERHEAD. BRIEF EARLY MORNING RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE. RAIN CHANCES AND POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS START TO INCREASE
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
SCZ115-116.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...7
AVIATION...EC
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