559
FXUS62 KCAE 171048
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
648 AM EDT THU SEP 17 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION UPDATED FOR 12Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. MOISTURE INCREASES HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT
WEEK, BRINGING RAIN CHANCES BACK TO THE AREA.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: MOISTURE INCREASES HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AND
INTO NEXT WEEK, BRINGING RAIN CHANCES BACK TO THE AREA.
AN UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHEAST EARLY THIS MORNING.
MEANWHILE, AN UPPER LOW IS DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO RETROGRADE WESTWARD, DRIVEN BY THE
UPPER LOW MOVING WESTWARD OVER FLORIDA AND INTO THE GULF. THIS
WILL LEAVE OUR AREA ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE. AS IT
DOES, MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY
THURSDAY BEFORE RAMPING UP FRIDAY AN INTO THE WEEKEND. ENERGY
MOVING AROUND THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER RIDGE BRINGS INCREASED
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING FRIDAY AFTERNOON
CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK AS MOISTURE
LINGERS. A RELATIVE LULL IN ACTIVITY REMAINS POSSIBLE FOR
SUNDAY. AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO, A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE TODAY INTO TOMORROW BEFORE RETURNING TO
NEAR NORMAL AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE 24HR FORECAST PERIOD.
SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH
ONLY A FEW PASSING HIGHER CIRRUS. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
DOMINATE THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH WINDS LIGHT AND
VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD. DRY AIR REMAINS IN PLACE TONIGHT
WHICH SHOULD PREVENT ANY FOG/STRATUS CONCERNS. WITH LATEST HIRES
GUIDANCE INDICATING WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE DAY,
HAVE OPTED FOR ONE LINE TAFS AT ALL THE TERMINALS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...29
AVIATION...96
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