324
FXUS62 KCAE 060557
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
157 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MINIMAL CHANGE TO KEY MESSAGES. AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR
06Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. HOT CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA, WITH CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: HOT CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA, WITH
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THE FORECAST IS PRETTY MUCH A RINSE AND REPEAT OF WHAT IT HAS
BEEN OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. GENERAL TROUGHING IS FORECAST
TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY. WEAK SHORTWAVES ARE
FORECAST TO PUSH EASTWARD OUT OF THIS ATOP A FAIRLY MOISTURE
RICH AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE TODAY AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY. THE
RESULT IS LIKELY TO BE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS
DEVELOPING AGAIN ACROSS THE AREA. HREF MEAN SOUNDINGS ARE PRETTY
SIMILAR TO WHAT THEY WERE ON SUNDAY, WITH A CLASSIC LOOK FOR
STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE PULSE CONVECTION BOTH DAYS. NEITHER
DAY WILL BE A WASH OUT BUT THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS. BY MID TO LATE WEEK, PWS LOOK TO FALL
BACK NEARER TO NORMAL, WHICH IS STILL PRETTY HIGH (1.5"-1.7").
HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO RISE AGAIN AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO HELP
SUPPRESS MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION. STILL, EXPECTING ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO CONTINUE EACH DAY.
ALL OF THE AFTERNOON STORMS ARE UP AGAINST THE BACKDROP OF THIS
PROLONGED HEAT EPISODE. WHILE THE TROUGHING TO OUR WEST WILL
RESULT IN A BREAKDOWN OF THE RIDGE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS,
THE LOW LEVEL AIR REMAINS QUITE WARM AND ABOVE NORMAL. GEFS,
ECE, AND NAEFS GUIDANCE ARE ALL SUGGESTING ABOVE NORMAL 850 HPA
TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE WEEK, LIKELY RESULTING IN HIGHS CONTINUING
TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S EACH DAY. DEWPOINTS WILL BE HIGHER
THIS WEEK, BUT WE'RE ALSO LOOKING AT A BIT MORE CONVECTION THAN
LAST WEEK (ESPECIALLY TODAY AND TUESDAY). ITS NOT EXPECTED THAT
HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE NEAR HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA TODAY OR
TUESDAY, PRIMARILY BECAUSE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO GET GOING
PRETTY EARLY IN THE DAY. HOWEVER, WE'LL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE
ON LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE LATER THIS WEEK WHEN PRECIP CHANCES
DIMINISH. WE MAY NEED SOME HEAT ADVISORIES ON THOSE DAYS.
REGARDLESS, IT MUST BE STRESSED THAT ANY OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES
SHOULD BE POSTPONED UNTIL THE EVENING HOURS. IF YOU MUST BE OUT
IN THE HEAT FOR PROLONGED PERIODS OF TIME, ENSURE THAT YOU
HYDRATE PROPERLY AND TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS TO AVOID HEAT RELATED
ILLNESSES.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE TAF PERIOD
WITH BRIEF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN AFTERNOON TSRA/SHRA.
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH SUNRISE WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS. SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE NEAR BODIES OF WATER BRIEFLY
AROUND DAWN, BUT ANY IMPACTS SHOULD BE LIMITED. MAINLY HIGH
CLOUDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO AN INCREASING CUMULUS
FIELD TOWARD MIDDAY AS SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 10
KTS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, SO HAVE CONTINUED A PROB30 GROUP FOR TSRA
AT ALL TERMINALS. THE STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE WIND GUSTS
OVER 25 KTS AND BRIEF VSBY REDUCTIONS IN HEAVY RAIN. TSRA/SHRA
MOVE EAST OF THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING WITH CLEARING SKIES
OVERNIGHT AS WINDS RELAX TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE ONCE AGAIN.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...DAILY RAIN CHANCES AND POSSIBLE
RESTRICTIONS CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...PL
AVIATION...EC
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