524
FXUS62 KCAE 011717
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
117 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
HEAT PRODUCTS MAY BE NEEDED OVER THE WEEKEND. CHANCES OF
CONVECTION INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF
SEVERE WEATHER. AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR THE 18Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE, PEAKING DURING THE
INDEPENDENCE DAY WEEKEND.
- 2. INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE
WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE, PEAKING
DURING THE INDEPENDENCE DAY WEEKEND.
STRONG UPPER RIDGE AFFECTING MUCH OF THE EASTERN US WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
THE ANOMALOUSLY STRONG RIDGING WILL COMBINE WITH HIGHLY
ANOMALOUS 850MB TEMPERATURES (ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE) AT OR
ABOVE 20C TO PROVIDE HOT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LOWERING ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE
TOMORROW WITH PWATS FALLING TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES AROUND 50TH
PERCENTILE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE DEEP MIXING TAPPING INTO
THE DRIER AIR ALOFT WHICH SHOULD MIX OUT DEWPOINTS INTO THE 60S
RESULTING IN HEAT INDICES BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA, ALTHOUGH
THEY ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BE AT OR ABOVE 100 DEGREES.
PWATS ARE FORECAST TO LOWER EVEN MORE ON FRIDAY TO AROUND 30TH
PERCENTILE BUT THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE
CAROLINAS AND MID-ATLANTIC AND TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE A
BIT WARMER, YIELDING HEAT INDICES IN THE 100-105 RANGE.
CONTINUED HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100
DEGREES OVER THE WEEKEND MAY LEAD TO HEAT RELATED PRODUCTS FOR
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS HUMIDITY INCREASES AGAIN WITH
INCREASINGLY SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW.
KEY MESSAGE 2: INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LATE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE IMPACTING
THE EASTERN STATES WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND BREAK DOWN SUNDAY
INTO NEXT WEEK AS RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND
PLAINS STATES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME WEAK HEIGHT FALLS AND
SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO MOVE INTO THE REGION. ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE
WILL BE MUCH HIGHER WITH PWATS BACK UP AROUND 2 INCHES
SUPPORTING STRONGER INSTABILITY AND BETTER CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION. SOME OF THE ML SEVERE GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING
INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT TIMES, BUT
WILL FAVOR A E COMPONENT AT 5-7 KTS. THIN CIRRUS CONTINUE TO
STREAM OVERHEAD WITH SOME FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS DECREASING
TONIGHT. TOWARD DAYBREAK, SOME TYPICAL MORNING MIFG MAY DEVELOP
AROUND AGS/OGB, THOUGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME. DRY
AND HOT WEATHER CONTINUES THURSDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS GENERALLY
OUT OF THE E/SE AT 5-7 KTS. A FEW VFR CUMULUS MAY DEVELOP BY
MIDDAY AND INTO THE AFTERNOON.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CONVECTION UNLIKELY FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS RIDGING BUILDS OVERHEAD. BRIEF EARLY
MORNING RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE. RAIN CHANCES AND POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS
START TO INCREASE SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...23
AVIATION...ND
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