076
FXUS62 KCAE 251743
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
143 PM EDT SAT JUL 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
LOWER RAIN CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. AVIATION
DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 18Z FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. DIMINISHING FLOODING THREAT INTO SUNDAY WITH CONTINUED
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
- 2. A RETURN TO A MORE SUMMER LIKE PATTERN NEXT WEEK WITH
INCREASED STRONG TO SEVERE STORM THREAT MID WEEK.
DISCUSSION
- 1. DIMINISHING FLOODING THREAT INTO SUNDAY WITH CONTINUED
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES TO BE FAVORABLE TO SUPPORT A
HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING THREAT WITH PWATS AROUND 2.2-2.4 INCHES
AND MUCAPE VALUES BETWEEN 1000-3000 J/KG ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. HOWEVER, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT SUPPORTED EARLIER
CONVECTION IN MOVING THROUGH THE CAROLINAS NOW AND SHOULD BE
EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THIS EVENING WITH SUBSIDENCE IN ITS
WAKE. CURRENT RADAR SHOWING GENERALLY VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS
ACROSS MUCH OF SC WITH HEAVIER RAINS SHIFTING TO THE NC COAST
WHERE THE BEST FORCING AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE EXISTS. EXPECT
LIMITED RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
MAINLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM. CHANCES OF
RAIN INCREASE LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE DEVELOPING UPPER TROUGH,
DOWNSTREAM FROM A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
AND PLAINS STATES. DRIER AIR, ESPECIALLY IN THE MID LEVELS IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA BEGINNING TOMORROW WHICH
WILL HELP TO LOWER THE FLOOD THREAT. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE WITH EXTENSIVE CLOUDS AND LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS AS THE
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY BECOMES MORE DIFFUSE.
- 2. A RETURN TO A MORE SUMMER LIKE PATTERN NEXT WEEK WITH
INCREASED STRONG TO SEVERE STORM THREAT MID WEEK.
LREF CLUSTERED ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH
THE OVERALL PATTERN FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK FEATURING A STRONG
UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND PLAINS STATES
RESULTING IN DOWNSTREAM UPPER TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN
THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. THIS PATTERN SHOULD SUPPORT A DRIER AIR
MASS OVER THE REGION EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH DOWNSLOPING
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND DEEPER MIXING. THERE ALSO IS LIKELY TO BE
A SERIES OF SMALLER DIFFICULT TO TIME DISTURBANCES MOVING
THROUGH THE FLOW WHICH MAY ADD TO OR ENHANCE NORMALLY DIURNAL
CONVECTION. THE INCREASED MID LEVEL DRY AIR MAY SUPPORT A
SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCE OF STRONG STORMS AND LOWER FLOODING
THREAT THAN WE HAVE RECENTLY EXPERIENCED. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO ALSO WARM BACK TO NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL EARLY IN THE
WEEK WITH TUESDAY BEING THE WARMEST DAY MOST LIKELY WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S.
STRONGER SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS FORECAST TO DIG THROUGH THE BASE
OF THE UPPER TROUGH INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC BY LATE TUESDAY
PUSHING A FRONT INTO THE REGION BY MID WEEK. INCREASED MID LEVEL
FLOW AND 850MB WINDS COMBINED WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY SHOULD
YIELD INCREASED THREAT OF STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. SPC CONTINUES TO CARRY A 15% RISK AREA
ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO NORTH CAROLINA WHILE CSU ML
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A SIMILAR SIGNAL ACROSS THE CAROLINAS
ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WOULD BE THE
PRIMARY THREAT WITH ANY SEVERE THREAT THAT MAY DEVELOP.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
GRADUAL RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON OUTSIDE OF ANY
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS. RESTRICTIONS MAY RETURN TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
THE SURFACE BOUNDARY HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE FAR
SOUTHEASTERN MIDLANDS WITH LIGHT WINDS AT THE TAF SITES MORE
WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY. STRATUS HAS CONTINUED TO SLOWLY MIX
OUT, BUT BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS COULD REMAIN FOR THE
NEXT HOUR OR SO BEFORE BECOMING VFR. AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO
THE REGION, A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE COASTAL
PLAIN, BUT LITTLE ACTIVITY IS SEEN IN THE FA. OGB'S PROXIMITY TO
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD POSSIBLY BRING SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY
HERE, BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS FAIRLY LOW SEEING CURRENT RADAR
TRENDS. THIS EVENING, ANOTHER SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY NEAR WESTERN
TENNESSEE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION, POSSIBLY SPARKING
A BATCH OF SHOWERS MAINLY NEAR THE CSRA. THIS IS SUPPORTED IN
THE MEAN 12Z HREF SOLUTION AND MULTIPLE CAM'S, SO HAVE ADDED A
PROB30 GROUP GENERALLY FROM 03Z-09Z TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. OUTSIDE
OF ANY RAIN CHANCES OVERNIGHT, LAMP AND HRRR GUIDANCE INDICATE
MORE STRATUS COULD BE POSSIBLE INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
CONFIDENCE IS A BIT HIGHER TOWARD CAE/CUB THAN THE OTHER
TERMINALS AND POTENTIAL SHOWERS IN THE EARLY MORNING COULD
COMPLICATE THIS A BIT. FOR NOW HAVE INTRODUCED PERIODS OF IFR TO
MVFR CEILINGS BETWEEN 09-10Z THAT GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO THE END
OF THE TAF PERIOD, BUT ADJUSTMENTS TO THIS MAY BE NEEDED IN
COMING FORECASTS. WINDS TONIGHT BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE BEFORE
PICKING UP AROUND 4-8 KTS OUT OF THE WEST TO NORTHWEST LATE
SUNDAY MORNING.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...DRIER WEATHER AND LOWER CHANCES FOR
MORNING RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED EARLY THIS COMING WEEK. BY LATE
TUESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY, RAIN CHANCES BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN
WITH ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...23
AVIATION...DH
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