428
FXUS62 KCAE 302354
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
754 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE KEY MESSAGE. AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED
FOR THE 00Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. TEMPERATURES WARM THROUGH THE WEEK, PEAKING DURING THE
INDEPENDENCE DAY WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: TEMPERATURES WARM THROUGH THE WEEK, PEAKING
DURING THE INDEPENDENCE DAY WEEKEND.
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES TO BE THE DOMINANT
ATMOSPHERIC FEATURE THAT WILL DICTATE THE WEATHER OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG (99TH PERCENTILE) UPPER
RIDGE OVER TENNESSEE WILL GRADUALLY REORIENT ITSELF OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC BY THE
END OF THE WEEK BEFORE BREAKING DOWN LATE IN THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO INDICATE PWAT VALUES LOWERING (AT
OR BELOW THE 50TH PERCENTILE) ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH
VALUES FALLING BELOW 1.5 INCHES WED/THU WHICH SHOULD
SIGNIFICANTLY LIMIT PRECIPITATION CHANCES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
ALSO SHOW A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WITH LARGE INVERTED-V
SIGNATURES RESULTING FROM DEEP MIXING FURTHER SUPPORTING
SUPPRESSED CONVECTIVE CHANCES.
WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL BE HOT WITH HIGHS EXPECTED IN THE MID
TO UPPER 90S, THE DRIER AIR AND DEEP MIXING SHOULD RESULT IN
LOWER DEWPOINTS AND THEREFORE LOWER HUMIDITY RESULTING IN HEAT
INDICES WELL BELOW OUR ADVISORY CRITERIA THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AS
WE MOVE INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND, MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING
AND THE PROBABILITY OF NEAR CRITERIA HEAT INDICES WILL INCREASE
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100 DEGREES AND HIGHER
DEWPOINTS. WHETHER OR NOT WE REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA, CONDITIONS
WILL EXIST THAT POSE A HEAT RISK THREAT TO THOSE WITH OUTDOOR
PLANS WHICH WILL INCLUDE MANY OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND FESTIVITIES
AND EVERYONE SHOULD PREPARE ACCORDINGLY AND BE ALERT TO THE
HEAT AND STAY HYDRATED. THE INCREASING MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
INSTABILITY AND CHANCES OF CONVECTION LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
EXPECT LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT. TOWARD DAYBREAK,
SOME TYPICAL MORNING MIFG MAY DEVELOP AROUND AGS/OGB, THOUGH
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME. A SIMILAR PATTERN IS
EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY, WITH EAST WINDS INCREASING TO 6-10 KTS BY
MID-MORNING. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST, WITH FAIR WEATHER
CUMULUS CLOUDS DEVELOPING DURING THE DAY AND INCREASING CIRRUS
MOVING IN TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CONVECTION UNLIKELY FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS RIDGING BUILDS OVERHEAD. BRIEF EARLY
MORNING RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...23
AVIATION...CJR
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