935
FXUS62 KCAE 100637
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
237 AM EDT SAT OCT 10 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ISAIAS CONTINUES TO MOVE INLAND AND HAS TRANSITIONED TO POST
TROPICAL SYSTEM. EXPANDED THE FLOOD WATCH TO INCLUDE MUCH OF
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH UNCERTAINTY AS TO
THE LOCATION OF HEAVIEST RAIN BANDS. AVIATION DISCUSSION
UPDATED FOR 06Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. ISAIAS CONTINUES TO MOVE INLAND WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN,
TORNADO THREAT AND GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED FOR OUR AREA INTO
TONIGHT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: ISAIAS CONTINUES TO MOVE INLAND WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN, TORNADO
THREAT AND GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED FOR OUR AREA INTO TONIGHT.
AS EXPECTED, PWATS HAVE INCREASED EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A TIGHT
GRADIENT OVER THE AREA WITH PWATS GREATER THAN 2 INCHES TO THE SOUTH
AND INCREASING OVER THE FORECAST AREA. WHILE RAINFALL HAS MOVED INTO
THE AREA, IT HAS REMAINED LIGHT AND IN SOME SPOTS TO THE NORTH IS
NOT ACTUALLY REACHING THE GROUND YET WITH 5 TO 10 DEGREE DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS. RAIN WILL LIKELY BE RELATIVELY LIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF
THE MORNING WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT LEADING TO WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH
GENERALLY WEAK RAIN RATES. AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD THROUGH
INTO THE FORECAST AREA, HI RESOLUTION GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FAVOR
SURFACE DESTABILIZATION IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS GENERALLY FAVORS MORE NARROW BANDING OF
CONVECTIVE PRECIP WHICH GUIDANCE APPEARS TO BE CONVERGING ON, EVEN
THE GLOBAL MODELS WHICH WERE PREVIOUSLY FAVORING A MORE BROAD BRUSH
APPROACH. STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE LOCATION OF THE
HEAVIEST RAIN BANDS SO HAVE EXPANDED THE FLOOD WATCH TO INCLUDE MORE
OF THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE IN MODERATE DESTABILIZATION REMAINS AND POTENTIAL FOR
BANDS EXCEEDING 3 INCHES AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. WARM
ADVECTION INTO TONIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
POST-TROPICAL TRANSITION OF ISAIAS WILL LEAD TO LINGERING
CONVECTION , ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD BE MOVING AT A FAIRLY FAST PACE
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT, HOWEVER, TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY RAINFALL
THAT FALLS IN FLOOD SENSITIVE AREAS.
THE TORNADO THREAT REMAINS ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED WITH THIS CYCLE
WITH NEARLY IDENTICAL SLIGHT RISK FROM SPC FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA. KCAE VAD WIND PROFILE ALREADY SHOWS STRONG LOW
LEVEL SHEAR/SRH (SFC TO 1 KM SHEAR 26 KTS, SFC TO 1 KM SRH 268
M2S2). WHILE THE AREA REMAINS NORTH OF THE FRONT, AS ISAIAS'
CIRCULATION LIFTS NORTHWARD, THE AFORMENTIONED THERMAL GRADIENT IS
EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHWARD AS WELL. THE TIMING OF THIS SHOULD BE
SUCH THAT IT OCCURS AS THE BEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT APPROACHES BEHIND
THE INITIAL WARM FRONT, WHICH COULD CREATE A SCENARIO ON SATURDAY
NIGHT THAT WE SEE LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELLS DEVELOP IN A HIGHLY SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT. LCLS WILL BE QUITE LOW, AND WE TYPICALLY DON'T NEED
MUCH MORE THAN A SURFACE DEWPOINT OF 70F TO HAVE SOME TROPICAL TORS
DEVELOP. REFS AND HREF MEMBERS CONTINUE TO FAVOR SUFFICIENT
DESTABILIZATION FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP IN A VERY FAVORABLE SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT. WILL NEED TO MONITOR DEVELOPING STORMS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. HAVE MULTIPLE WAYS TO RECEIVE
WARNINGS ON SATURDAY NIGHT!
WINDS ARE THE OTHER THREAT BUT LIKELY THE LEAST IMPACTFUL. SOME
GUSTS OVER 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED IN THE WESTERN MIDLANDS AND AS A
RESULT, A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED TO COVER THIS POTENTIAL
THROUGHOUT SATURDAY. OTHERWISE, IT SHOULD JUST BE BREEZY ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA, WITH GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY SATURDAY
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS INTO SATURDAY.
PERIODIC LIGHT RAIN HAS BEEN NOTED AT THE TERMINALS THE PAST FEW
HOURS. EXPECT THIS RAIN TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND BECOME MORE
STEADY THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO
LOWER AS THE MORE STEADY RAIN MOVES INTO THE AREA, EVENTUALLY
BECOMING IFR. THERE REMAINS A LOW END POTENTIAL FOR LIFR
CEILINGS LATER IN THE PERIOD, SO HAVE HINTED AT THAT IN THE
TAFS. NORTHEAST WINDS OF 5-10 KTS, GUSTING TO 15 KTS OR SO AT
TIMES TO BEGIN THE TAF PERIOD. SUSTAINED WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
INCREASE TO ABOUT 15 KTS. MEANWHILE, GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH 30 KTS FOR THE AUGUSTA TERMINALS AND 25 KTS FOR THE
COLUMBIA AND ORANGEBURG TERMINALS FOR SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE
DIMINISHING AFTER 18Z-20Z OR SO.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PERIODS OF RAIN CONTINUES INTO
SUNDAY, LEADING TO ONGOING RESTRICTIONS. CONDITIONS BEGIN
IMPROVING LATER ON SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR SCZ018-025.
FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
FOR SCZ018-025-030-035-041-135>137.
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EDT
THIS EVENING FOR SCZ016-020>022-026>031-035-037-038-041-
115-116-135>137.
GA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR GAZ040-063>065-077.
FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
FOR GAZ040-063>065-077.
DISCUSSION...96
AVIATION...29
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