633  
FXUS62 KCAE 021135  
AFDCAE  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC  
635 AM EST FRI DEC 2 2022  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
COOLER AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. SATURDAY IS THE  
WARMER OF THE TWO WEEKEND DAYS AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.  
SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITH THE FRONT, BUT THE NEXT CHANCE  
FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WITH FAIR AND COOL CONDITIONS IN STORE  
FOR TODAY. THE SURFACE HIGH IS CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER THE MID  
ATLANTIC REGION BUT WE WILL SEE IT MOVE OFFSHORE AS THE DAY  
PROGRESSES. A SURFACE LOW IS CURRENTLY GETTING PICKED UP BY AN UPPER  
LEVEL TROUGH ALONG THE ROCKIES AND WILL CONTINUE ITS NORTHEASTWARD  
MOVEMENT. AS THE SURFACE HIGH HEADS EAST, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT  
OVERHEAD WILL TIGHTEN, PROVIDING INCREASING ONSHORE MOISTURE FLOW AT  
LOWER LEVELS. WHILE WE WILL START OFF RELATIVELY CLEAR (ASIDE FROM  
SOME CIRRUS) EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY.  
THIS SHOULD NOT SUPPRESS DAYTIME HEATING SIGNIFICANTLY AND  
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY; CHILLY MORNING QUICKLY  
WARMING UP TO HIGHS AROUND CLIMATOLOGY, AROUND 60 NORTH AND WEST OF  
I-20 AND LOWER 60S SOUTH AND EAST. GIVEN THE RECENT MOIST BIAS,  
WENT WITH THE WARMER SOLUTION.  
 
OVERNIGHT, MID LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL INCREASE AND SKIES WILL  
BECOME OVERCAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL STILL BE DOMINANT HOWEVER AND  
CONDITIONS WILL CALM SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT  
WILL BE NEARING THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND  
MOISTURE WILL QUICKLY INCREASE AHEAD OF IT. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL  
STILL BE TO OUR WEST AND WE WILL BE FAR FROM ANY FORCING, SO DID NOT  
ADD POPS PRIOR TO 12Z SATURDAY. LOWS IN THE MID 40S.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
 
 
COLD FRONT WILL BE JUST OFF TO THE WEST OF APPALACHIANS  
SATURDAY MORNING, WITH THE FRONT THEN MOVING ACROSS THE CWA  
SATURDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, MOISTURE WILL HAVE INCREASE  
OFF THE ATLANTIC, AND THE FRONT ITSELF SHOULD BRING SOME  
MOISTURE ALONG WITH IT. HOWEVER, AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE  
MOUNTAINS AND SOME DOWNSLOPING FLOW DEVELOPS, MOISTURE AND  
SHOWERS BEGIN TO DIMINISH. IN ADDITION, UPPER ENERGY MOVES NORTH  
AND FURTHER AWAY FROM THE AREA. THIS SHOULD LIMIT THE RAINFALL  
POTENTIAL WITH THE FRONT. CURRENT CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS  
STILL LOOKS REASONABLE WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY, WITH  
DRIER AIR THEN MOVING IN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WARM  
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT, WITH HIGHS IN THE  
MID 60S OVER THE NORTHERN COUNTIES, AND THE LOWER 70S ACROSS THE  
SOUTHEASTERN CWA. AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT, LOW  
TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE LOWER 40S NORTH TO THE LOWER 50S IN  
THE SOUTH. SUNDAY WILL BE DRY AND COOLER THROUGH THE DAY AS THE  
FRONT REMAINS SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
 
 
UNCERTAINTY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LONGER TERM, WITH MUCH  
OF THAT UNCERTAINTY DUE TO WHERE THE PREVIOUS FRONT MOVES. THIS  
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON  
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT, THEN ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH  
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS BRINGS A FEW CHANCES FOR  
RAINFALL THROUGH THE WEEK AS THE FRONTS MOVE THROUGH.  
TEMPERATURES ALSO WARM FROM MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS THE WARM  
FRONT MOVES THROUGH, THEN ANOTHER COOL DOWN INTO THE END OF THE  
WEEK.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
 
 
PRIMARILY VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.  
 
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTHEAST PROVIDING MOISTURE RETURN VIA ONSHORE  
FLOW. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING SCATTERED CIRRUS STREAMING IN AHEAD  
OF THE NEXT FRONT AS WELL AS SOME SCATTERED LOW STRATOCU. CIGS HAVE  
BRIEFLY GONE DOWN TO MVFR AT DNL AND MORE CONTINUES TO PASS OVER  
AGS/DNL. AS MORE MOISTURE MOVES IN, ANTICIPATE MORE PERIODS OF MVFR  
CIGS AT AGS/DNL/OGB, LOW CHANCE MOVING OVER CAE/CUB. WINDS WILL  
INCREASE TO AROUND 5 KT FROM THE SOUTHEAST. TONIGHT, DEEPER MOISTURE  
WILL MOVE IN AHEAD OF THE FRONT. MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE KEEPS CIGS VFR  
THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD, BUT DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES  
IN MOISTURE, THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY TOWARDS SATURDAY  
MORNING.  
 
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH  
SE CANADA AND THE ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL PASS LATE SATURDAY. MAJORITY  
OF PRECIP AHEAD OF IT WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH BUT SOME CEILING  
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE. UNSETTLED WEATHER AT THE BEGINNING OF  
NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
GA...NONE.  
SC...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...  
NEAR TERM...  
SHORT TERM...  
LONG TERM...  
AVIATION...  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab SC Page
The Nexlab GA Page Main Text Page