029
FXUS62 KCAE 100622
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
222 AM EDT THU SEP 10 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH INCREASING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
LITTLE HAS CHANGED TO THE FORECAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
GLOBAL ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO FAVOR RIDGING TO OUR EAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH A STRONGER RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHEAST
FOR NEXT WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL SUPPORT SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND DEEP MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WITH PWAT
VALUES NEAR OR ABOVE 2 INCHES. THIS SETUP TENDS TO GIVE THE
FORECAST AREA SCATTERED, DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS. CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE MAY BE A LITTLE HIGHER ON SATURDAY WITH SOME POTENTIAL
SHORTWAVE ENERGY SET TO RIDE UP OVER THE RIDGE INTO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS. WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS GENERALLY NOT
EXPECTED BUT THE BIGGEST THREATS BEING ISOLATED DOWNBURST WINDS
AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. HEIGHT RISES EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOULD WORK
TO SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WITH JUST ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ABOUT 3 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD, BUT STILL COOLER THAN THE FIRST WEEK OF
SEPTEMBER.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
RESTRICTIONS REMAIN POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS TOWARDS DAYBREAK....
THE PRIMARY CONCERN DURING THE NEXT TWENTY-FOUR HOURS WILL BE
FROM POTENTIAL LOW CLOUDS AND/OR FOG DEVELOPING TOWARDS
DAYBREAK. GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF ON POTENTIAL IMPACTS,
ESPECIALLY REGARDING CONDITIONS AT CAE/CUB/AIK BUT OPTED TO
MAINTAIN A TEMPO FOR BRIEF IFR CEILINGS AROUND DAYBREAK WHILE
FOG WAS REMOVED. FOR FOG PRONE OGB AND AGS, THE TEMPO FOR FOG
WAS MAINTAINED, ESPECIALLY AT AGS. THE THREAT FOR FOG AT DNL WAS
REMOVED BUT A PERIOD OF LOW CEILINGS REMAINS POSSIBLE THERE. ANY
LOW STRATUS SHOULD LIFT AND TRANSITION TO SCT CUMULUS BY MIDDAY
AS SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 5 KNOTS. DIURNAL
CONVECTION CHANCES RETURN LATER TODAY, BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS
TOO LOW FOR INCLUSION AT THE TERMINALS EXCEPT AT OGB WHERE A
PROB30 WAS MAINTAINED. PASSING HIGH CLOUDS AND LIGHT WINDS ARE
THEN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER SUNSET AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RAIN CHANCES INCREASE INTO THE
WEEKEND ALONG WITH A HIGHER PROBABILITY FOR MORNING FOG/STRATUS
CONCERNS DUE TO HIGHER ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CJR
AVIATION...7
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