988  
FXUS62 KCAE 311628  
AFDCAE  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC  
1228 PM EDT MON MAR 31 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TODAY  
WITH SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. WELL ABOVE NORMAL  
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR LATE WEEK WITH POSSIBLE RECORD HIGHS  
LATE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
 
 
KEY MESSAGE(S):  
 
- SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE CSRA AND PORTIONS  
OF CENTRAL SC. DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY THREAT BUT A FEW  
STORMS MAY PRODUCE A TORNADO AND LARGE HAIL.  
 
UPDATE: SKIES CLEARING OVER THE CSRA AND MIDLANDS. THIS WILL  
ALLOW THE AIR MASS TO DESTABILIZE AHEAD OF A LINE OF  
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS  
AFTERNOON. THE LARGEST THREAT STILL APPEARS TO BE AREAS OF  
DAMAGING WINDS ALONG THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THAT SAID,  
CONDITIONS REMAIN SUFFICIENT TO HAVE A FEW STRONGER STORMS  
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LINE WHICH POTENTIALLY PRODUCE A TORNADO OR  
LARGE HAIL.  
 
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO SHIFT  
EASTWARD ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY WHICH WILL PUSH A COLD  
FRONT THROUGH THE AREA BY TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT TODAY,  
CONTINUED SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AROUND THE WESTERN ATLANTIC  
SURFACE HIGH WILL PROVIDE CONTINUED WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION  
OVER THE FORECAST AREA LEADING TO AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION  
THROUGH THE DAY. MORNING STRATUS MAY DELAY OR IMPACT THE INITIAL  
DESTABILIZATION BUT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MLCAPE VALUES WILL EXCEED  
1000 J/KG DURING PEAK HEATING WITH MODEST BUT SUFFICIENT  
EFFECTIVE WIND SHEAR AROUND 30-40 KNOTS WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT THE  
THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER.  
 
LATEST HRRR RUNS CONSISTENTLY SHOWING THIS INITIAL CONVECTIVE  
LINE DIMINISHING AS IT MOVES EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS BUT LEAVING A  
RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE NORTHERN  
MIDLANDS. THIS COULD BECOME A FOCUS FOR ENHANCED HELICITY AND A  
INCREASED TORNADO THREAT WHEN AFTERNOON CONVECTION MOVES INTO  
THE REGION.  
 
HI-RES GUIDANCE IS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT DEVELOPING  
CONVECTION ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES AFTER 12Z WHICH THEN  
TRACKS EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY ENCOUNTERING AN INCREASINGLY  
UNSTABLE HIGH THETA-E ENVIRONMENT RESULTING IN A LINE OF STRONG  
CONVECTION MOVING THROUGH OUR AREA MID TO LATE AFTERNOON  
(18Z-01Z) WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED DISCRETE CELLS DEVELOPING AHEAD  
OF THE LINE. HI-RES GUIDANCE ALSO SHOWING SOME UPDRAFT HELICITY  
TRACKS MOVING ACROSS THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA WITH A MORE RECENT  
ENHANCEMENT OF THEM ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS (LIKELY  
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FORECAST OUTFLOW BOUNDARY) WHICH IS A CHANGE  
FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING THAT THE TORNADO THREAT WOULD  
PRIMARILY BE CONFINED TO THE CSRA AND SOUTHEAST MIDLANDS. SO  
WHILE THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A SIGNIFICANT TORNADO THREAT,  
WITH A MORE LIKELY STORM MODE BEING COLD POOL DOMINATED LINEAR  
MULTICELLULAR SEGMENTS, THE TORNADO THREAT DOES EXIST ACROSS THE  
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. AS MENTIONED, DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE THE  
PRIMARY THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER GIVEN THE FAIRLY  
UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILE BUT LARGE HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT  
EITHER. PWAT VALUES CONTINUE TO BE HIGH (OVER 200% OF NORMAL)  
AND WILL SUPPORT HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL BUT STORM MOTION SHOULD BE  
HIGH ENOUGH TO LIMIT FLASH FLOOD THREAT.  
 
TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD WARM AGAIN WELL INTO THE 70S WITH  
SOME LOWER 80S POSSIBLE IN THE EASTERN MIDLANDS, DEPENDING ON  
HOW QUICKLY THE LOWER STRATUS CAN BURN OFF. AFTER THE CONVECTION  
PUSHES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING LINGERING CLOUD  
COVER WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING AND EXPECT SOME RETURN OF  
STRATUS DUE TO ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE UNTIL THE  
COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. COLD ADVECTION SHOULD COMMENCE BEHIND  
THE FRONT LATE TONIGHT AND OVERNIGHT LOWS EXPECTED TO FALL INTO  
THE 50S RANGING FROM THE LOWER 50S WEST TO UPPER 50S EAST.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
 
 
KEY MESSAGE(S):  
 
- COOLER AND DRY TUESDAY WITH THE BEGINNING OF A WARMING TREND.  
 
TUESDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY THIS WEEK AND LIKELY THE DRIEST AS  
PWATS DROP TO AROUND 0.5" BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT. HIGHS  
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S FOR MOST PLACES WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING  
BACK INTO THE 40'S OR PERHAPS UPPER 50S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST  
AREA. BROAD OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER RIDGING DEVELOPS INTO  
WEDNESDAY, WITH SOME MOISTURE RETURNING TO THE AREA AND DAYTIME  
TEMPERATURES INCREASING ANOTHER 5-8 DEGREES. A FEW UPSLOPE AND  
ISENTROPICALLY FORCED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY, BUT ACCUMS  
SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT GIVEN PWAT VALUES BETWEEN 1" AND 1.25".  
OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE 50S TUESDAY NIGHT AND 60S WEDNESDAY  
NIGHT.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
 
 
KEY MESSAGE(S):  
 
- HIGHLY ANOMALOUS WARMTH EXPECTED WITH NEAR RECORD HIGH  
TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.  
 
THE BIG STORY IN THE EXTENDED CONTINUES TO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR NEAR  
RECORD OR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES. THE SURFACE HIGH BECOMES WELL  
ESTABLISHED OFFSHORE WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUING TO BUILD  
OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. NBM HIGH TEMPERATURES  
ARE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S THURSDAY THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY,  
THOUGH THE SPREAD BY SUNDAY IS A LITTLE LARGER AND TEMPERATURES MAY  
COOL OFF A FEW DEGREES. THE EC EFI CONTINUES TO SHOW HIGHS IN THE  
80TH-90TH+ PERCENTILE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WITH A FEW SHIFT OF  
TAILS BULLSEYES OF 1 THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, AND VALUES DROP OFF A  
BIT TO GENERALLY 80TH PERCENTILE FOR SUNDAY, SO THERE IS GOOD MODEL  
SUPPORT FOR THESE EXPECTED TEMPERATURES. THE UNCERTAINTY OF  
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY IS LIKELY DUE TO TIMING DIFFERENCES  
FOR THE NEXT FRONT LATE NEXT WEEKEND, WHICH WILL ALSO PROBABLY BRING  
THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR A GOOD BIT OF RAINFALL.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
STRATUS HAS LIFTED WITH MVFR CEILINGS BEING SEEN AT ALL SITES  
AS ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE STORMS ARE DEVELOPING IN  
CENTRAL TO EASTERN GA AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE THAT IS ENTERING  
WESTERN GA AT THIS TIME.  
 
ANY LINGERING STRATUS HAS MIXED OUT WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND  
5-10 KTS BUT WE KEEP MVFR CEILINGS AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO SURGE  
INTO THE REGION, LIMITING THE BREAKING UP CLOUDS, THOUGH SOME  
SMALL BREAKS ARE NOW BEING SEEN NEAR AGS/DNL. THE MAIN LINE OF  
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS NOW ENTERING WESTERN GA BUT  
AHEAD OF THIS, ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FORMING INTO CENTRAL AND  
EASTERN GA. SOME OF THESE WILL HAVE THE POSSIBILITY OF  
DEVELOPING INTO THUNDERSTORMS AS INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO  
INCREASE AND THUS A COUPLE OF THESE COULD BE NEARING AGS/DNL IN  
THE NEXT HOUR OR SO, BEFORE CONTINUING WEST, ENTERING NEAR  
CUB/CAE BY 18-19Z. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY IS REMAINING NORTH OF  
OGB AT THIS TIME. THE TIMING FOR THE MAIN LINE OF STORMS IS  
CURRENTLY LOOKING TO ENTER AGS/DNL BY 18-20Z, CUB/CAE BY  
19-21Z, AND OGB BY 20-23Z. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BRING STRONG  
WINDS WITH GUSTS OVER 35 KTS POSSIBLE AND POSSIBLE CEILING AND  
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS FOR A COUPLE HOURS AS THE MAIN LINE  
PASSES. BEHIND THE LINE, SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO  
THE EVENING BUT THE MAIN IMPACT BEHIND THIS LINE OF STORMS  
CONTINUES TO BE ANOTHER STRATUS DECK THAT LOOKS TO BUILD BACK IN  
AFTER 6-8Z WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.  
 
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE  
THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT WITH LINGERING POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS  
INTO EARLY TUESDAY. EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO BE  
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNING.  
 

 
   
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
SC...NONE.  
GA...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
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