148
FXUS62 KCAE 040022
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
822 PM EDT SAT OCT 3 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING CONTINUES INTO TONIGHT,
PARTICULARLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF CHESTERFIELD AND LANCASTER
COUNTIES. ANOTHER PERIOD OF MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED
LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY WITH THE FOCUS LIKELY SHIFTING
ALONG AND SOUTH AND EAST OF I-20. AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED
FOR 00Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. SLOW MOVING FRONT BRINGS PERIODS OF RAIN AND AN INCREASED
RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: SLOW MOVING FRONT BRINGS PERIODS OF RAIN AND AN INCREASED
RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING.
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING: AFTER SEEING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION TODAY,
RAINFALL HAS MOSTLY SHIFTED OUT OF THE FA THIS EVENING. THE BIG
EXCEPTION APPEARS TO BE A LINE OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL
ALONG A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY NOW SETTING UP ACROSS
CHESTERFIELD AND LANCASTER COUNTIES. THE SOLUTION ADVERTISED BY
THE 18Z HRRR APPEARS TO BE TAKING SHAPE, WHICH HAD A BULLSEYE
OF SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN FOCUSED ON CHESTERFIELD COUNTY NEAR
CHERAW. WILL BE MONITORING THIS AREA IN PARTICULAR FOR POSSIBLE
FLOOD PRODUCTS. FLASH FLOODING IS PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS AT
NIGHT. REMEMBER TO TURN AROUND, DON'T DROWN IF YOU ENCOUNTER AND
FLOODED ROADWAYS AND HAVE AT LEAST TWO WAYS TO RECEIVE NWS
ALERTS, SHOULD THEY BE NEEDED.
SUNDAY MORNING INTO EARLY MONDAY: THERE HAS NOT BEEN A
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE OUTLOOK FOR SUNDAY AS THE WEAK FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO STALL AND MEANDER THROUGH THE FA, BUT UPPER
SUPPORT SHOULD INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES IN.
PWAT'S ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR 2.25" AND THE OVERALL
THERMODYNAMIC, AND KINEMATIC PROFILES SHOULD NOT BE ALL TOO
DIFFERENT FROM TODAY. THE MAIN SHIFT IN GUIDANCE IS TOWARD A
LATER TIMING OF THE ONSET OF WIDESPREAD RAIN/STORMS WITH A
SLOWER MOVING SHORTWAVE. THIS TIMING FAVORS LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY MONDAY FOR THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR
WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN. OVERALL, THIS ENVIRONMENT IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING,
ESPECIALLY FOR ANY AREAS THAT SEE HEAVY RAINFALL TONIGHT. THE
12Z HREF AND REFS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE ON THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF
A CORRIDOR OF HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS, BUT THE OVERALL TREND
HAS BEEN A BIT FURTHER SOUTH, MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-20
CORRIDOR, WHERE THE FRONT COULD STALL. IN THIS SWATH, LPMM
PRODUCTS FROM BOTH HIGH-RES ENSEMBLES SHOW AMOUNTS BETWEEN 2-5".
TRENDS OF FRONTAL PLACEMENT WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED, BUT
ALL-IN-ALL, FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED INTO EARLY
MONDAY, AND DUE TO THE EFFICIENT NATURE OF THE RAINFALL AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING, WPC HAS MAINTAINED THEIR SLIGHT RISK
(LEVEL 2 OUT OF 4) FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS THE CWA.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
MOSTLY VFR TODAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS.
RESTRICTIONS INCREASING TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
SCATTERED SHOWERS VISIBLE ON RADAR AND MAY IMPACT THE TERMINALS
BRIEFLY THIS AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH FORCING IS WEAK, LIMITING
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. WHILE ISOLATED STORMS MAY IMPACT THE
COLUMBIA TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS, THE REST OF THE
TERMINALS WILL LIKELY JUST DEAL WITH SHOWERS. TONIGHT A FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH WITH INCREASED CHANCES
FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN ALONG THE FRONT WHICH MAY LEAD TO
DECREASING VISIBILITIES. MORE NOTABLE RESTRICTIONS WILL BE
LOWERING CEILINGS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN IFR CEILINGS,
ESPECIALLY FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINALS INTO TOMORROW AS
PRECIPITATION INDUCED CAD DEVELOPS. AS A RESULT, EXPECT
RESTRICTIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH 18Z TOMORROW.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING LIKELY
LEAD TO RESTRICTIONS. DRIER AIR FILTERING IN MONDAY.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...7/DH
AVIATION...EC/96
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