915
FXUS62 KCAE 051034
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
634 AM EDT WED AUG 5 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
HEAT AND HUMIDLY RETURN WITH ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION
CONTINUING. AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 12Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS RETURN, WITH CHANCES FOR DIURNAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.
DISCUSSION
- 1. HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS RETURN, WITH CHANCES FOR DIURNAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.
THE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND BECOME
ABSORBED INTO THE BROADER TROUGH AS IT LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD AWAY
FROM THE REGION, RESULTING IN A GRADUAL REDUCTION IN ITS
INFLUENCE. HEIGHTS WILL RISE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK
SUPPORTING A SLOW WARMING TREND WITH INCREASING AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES. MEANWHILE, PWAT VALUES WILL STEADILY INCREASE AS
THE DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR IS REPLACED BY A MORE MOIST SUBTROPICAL
AIRMASS. ALTHOUGH THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN, THE RETURN
OF 1.8-2" PWATS WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED DAILY CONVECTION. POPS
WILL TREND CLOSER TO CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS, WITH DIURNALLY
DRIVEN PULSE CONVECTION EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN MORE ISOLATED COMPARED TO THE
WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. THE SEVERE
COMPONENT SHOULD ALSO DECREASE AS DCAPE LOWERS AND SHEAR
WEAKENS, ALTHOUGH A MARGINALLY SEVERE MICROBURST CANNOT BE RULED
OUT EACH DAY.
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 88-93F,
WHICH SHOULD BE REACHED RELATIVELY EASILY GIVEN THE WARM AND
HUMID BOUNDARY LAYER. WITH OPPRESSIVE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE, WEAK
MID/UPPER-LEVEL FLOW, AND MINIMAL LARGE-SCALE FORCING IN PLACE,
THE REGION WILL SETTLE INTO A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN.
AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
RESTRICTIONS THIS MORNING THROUGH 14Z, THEN IMPROVING BACK TO
VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD..
SHOWERS ARE WELL EAST OF TAF SITES THIS MORNING, AND GUIDANCE
NOT SHOWING ANY SHOWER DEVELOPMENT UNTIL AFTER 18Z. BIGGER ISSUE
THIS MORNING WILL BE THE LIFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS THAT BOTH SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ARE
INDICATING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. SATELLITE
SHOWING CLOUD COVER MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE MIDLANDS SITES OF
CAE/CUB/OGB, AND STILL DEVELOPING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CSRA
SITES OF AGS/DNL. DO STILL EXPECT SOME LOWER CEILINGS TO DEVELOP
TOWARDS SUNRISE IN THE CSRA. IN ADDITION, CAN NOT RULE OUT
PERIODS OF LIFR VISIBILITY THROUGH 14Z. AFTER 14Z, CONDITIONS
SHOULD BEGIN IMPROVING BACK TOWARDS VFR AT ALL SITES AS LOW
CLOUDS BREAK UP AND SCATTER OUT MORE. VFR CONDITIONS THEN
EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD, ALTHOUGH ONCE
AGAIN CAN NOT RULE OUT ANOTHER PERIOD OF CEILING AND VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS LATE TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY. WITH THE POTENTIAL
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, PROB30 GROUPS REMAIN IN ALL
TAFS THROUGH SUNSET, SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS DAYS. WINDS GENERALLY
LIGHT OVERNIGHT, THEN MORE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
THIS WEEK WITH EARLY MORNING RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ND
AVIATION...73
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