081
FXUS62 KCAE 190616
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
216 AM EDT FRI JUN 19 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED KEY MESSAGE #1 TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS. AVIATION
DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 06Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. GUSTY WINDS, HEAVY RAINFALL, AND SEVERE WEATHER ARE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
- 2. A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND
INTO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: GUSTY WINDS, HEAVY RAINFALL, AND SEVERE WEATHER
REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
THE REMNANTS OF ARTHUR WILL CONTINUE LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST
AND PUSHES IT OFFSHORE. THE PRIMARY HAZARDS AND CONCERNS REMAIN
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED FLASH
FLOODING AND A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS. EARLIER CONVECTION
THURSDAY AFTERNOON HAVE HELPED LIMIT CURRENT INSTABILITY,
ALTHOUGH PWATS REMAIN AROUND 1.75-2.25" WITH CONTINUED SOUTHWEST
FLOW MAINTAINING A RICH MOISTURE SUPPLY FROM THE GULF. A MODEST
LOW-LEVEL JET AND SUFFICIENT SHEAR REMAIN IN PLACE THAT A
SEVERE THREAT REMAINS POSSIBLE, BUT INSTABILITY IS LOWER THAN
PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED AND IS UNLIKELY BASED ON CURRENT
MESOANALYSIS TRENDS.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PERSIST CLOSER TO THE
CENTER OF CIRCULATION OVER CENTRAL GA. AT THIS TIME, THERE IS A
BIT OF A DRY SLOT OVERHEAD CURRENTLY BUT A "THIRD" LINE/CLUSTER
BEHIND IT SHOWS THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL REMAINING JUST SOUTH OF
THE AREA. HOWEVER, HI-RES GUIDANCE AND RECENT RADAR TRENDS
SUGGEST LIGHT PRECIPITATION COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE SOMEWHAT AS
THE CENTER TRACKS OVERHEAD OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ALL
ACTIVITY SHOULD EXIT BY MID-MORNING ON FRIDAY. A FEW GUSTY WINDS
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE, MAINLY NEAR CONVECTION AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT INCREASES BUT SHOULD DIMINISH BY MIDDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2: A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN RETURNS FOR
THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
AFTER THE REMNANTS OF ARTHUR MOVE OUT OF THE AREA, A FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO SLIDE THROUGH THE FA FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING,
BRINGING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER/STORM CHANCES. SLIGHTLY
DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT THIS WEEKEND, BUT
WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW 90S. MULTIPLE
DISTURBANCES ARE FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH UPPER ZONAL FLOW,
BRINGING A MORE SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN OF DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK.
LOOKING FURTHER, THE UPPER PATTERN BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED AS
TROUGHING DEEPENS OVER THE MIDWEST AND HEIGHTS FALL ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE BY THAT POINT,
BUT THE ARE INDICATIONS THAT A SHORTWAVE MAY EJECT ACROSS THE
REGION, POTENTIALLY SUPPORTING AN UPTICK IN CONVECTION AND
PERHAPS SEVERE WEATHER. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW AT
THIS TIME FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS DUE TO LOW CEILINGS WILL PERSIST AT THE
TERMINALS INTO MIDDAY, FOLLOWED BY IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CONDITIONS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
AS THE REMNANT LOW OF FORMER TROPICAL CYCLONE ARTHUR PASSES THROUGH
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TODAY, ONE ADDITIONAL BAND OF SHOWERS
WILL ACCOMPANY ITS PASSAGE, WITH THE RAIN POTENTIALLY REDUCING
VISIBILITIES AND AT TIMES MIXING DOWN SOME HIGHER GUSTS UPWARDS OF
ABOUT 20 KT. THE RAIN SHOULD GENERALLY COME TO AN END BY MID-LATE
MORNING BASED ON THE LATEST HREF GUIDANCE, BUT LOW CEILINGS WILL
REMAIN AN ISSUE, WITH MVFR OR IFR CEILINGS PERSISTING THROUGH ABOUT
16-17Z AT THE TERMINALS. AFTER THAT CEILINGS WILL RISE TO VFR
LEVELS, AND EVENTUALLY SCATTER OUT BY THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE SOUTHERLY AT THE START OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, BUT VEER
MORE WESTERLY BY LATE MORNING WITH SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF 8-12 KT.
WINDS SHOULD BECOME RATHER LIGHT OUT OF THE WEST-SOUTHWEST THIS
EVENING.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION CAN BE
ANTICIPATED HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND, ALTHOUGH COVERAGE WILL BE
ISOLATED WITH HIGHER COVERAGE NEXT WEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ND
AVIATION...JAQ
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