507
FXUS62 KCAE 290510
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
110 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED DISCUSSION OF TEMPERATURES AND HEAT INDEX VALUES FOR
MONDAY. AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR THE 06Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. INCREASED THREAT OF IMPACTFUL HEAT THIS WEEK AND INTO THE
INDEPENDENCE DAY WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: INCREASED THREAT OF IMPACTFUL HEAT THIS WEEK AND
INTO THE INDEPENDENCE DAY WEEKEND.
AFTER A MUGGY OVERNIGHT PERIOD, ESPECIALLY IN THE CSRA,
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE 90S ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY. A HEAT ADVISORY WAS CONSIDERED FOR THE
COUNTIES ALONG THE SAVANNAH RIVER, BUT ULTIMATELY ONE WAS NOT
ISSUED DUE TO THE EXPECTED DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, WHICH WOULD PREVENT CRITERIA FROM
BEING REACHED. HAVING SAID THAT, FORECAST HEAT INDEX VALUES
WILL BE BETWEEN 100 AND 105 DEGREES IN THE CSRA, INCLUDING THE
CITY OF AUGUSTA, MEANING CAUTION SHOULD BE USED DURING PEAK
HEATING IF YOU HAVE ANY EXTENDED OUTDOOR PLANS.
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO FILTER INTO THE REGION DURING
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, RESULTING IN SOMEWHAT LOWER HEAT INDEX
VALUES, ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL. BY
LATE WEEK AND INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND, AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
WILL BE ANCHORED OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WHILE STRENGTHENING
FURTHER, WITH 850-MB TEMPERATURES APPROACHING OR EXCEEDING 20C.
THIS PATTERN WILL SUPPORT A CONTINUED WARMING TREND, WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS STEADILY CLIMBING AND SEVERAL LOCATIONS
POTENTIALLY REACHING OR EXCEEDING 100 DEGREES FROM THURSDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. HEAT INDICES COULD SOAR CLOSE TO OR ABOVE 105
DEGREES. IF TRENDS CONTINUE, HEAT PRODUCTS MAY BE NEEDED SEVERAL
DAYS IN A ROW. BE SURE TO MAKE HEAT SAFETY PREPARATIONS NOW AND
HAVE A PLAN TO MONITOR CHILDREN, THE ELDERLY, PETS, AND ANYONE
WITHOUT ADEQUATE INDOOR COOLING.
THE NHC MAINTAINS A 20% CHANCE FOR CYCLONE FORMATION OVER THE
NEXT 7 DAYS OFF THE SC COAST. HOWEVER, GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF
ON THIS QUITE A BIT WITH DEVELOPMENT FAIRLY LOW.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY MONDAY WITH AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS-STORMS.
SOME DRIER AIR IS PUSHING TOWARDS THE REGION WITH A WEAK BACK
DOOR FRONT. ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN OF SC
POSSIBLE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THIS, BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW FOR ANY
TAF MENTIONS YET. WINDS WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTH-NORTHEAST
INTO MONDAY MORNING FOR COLUMBIA AND OGB, REMAINING
NORTHWESTERLY AT AGS-DNL; WINDS WILL BE NOTABLE LIGHTER TODAY
DESPITE THIS FRONT, WITH GUSTS ONLY TO AROUND 10 KNOTS. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AT AGS-DNL IS AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT
WILL NOT CLEAR THE AREA, INCLUDED A PROB30 COVERING THIS
POTENTIAL FOR NOW AT THOSE TERMINALS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS LESS LIKELY
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS RIDGING BUILDS OVERHEAD. BRIEF
EARLY MORNING RESTRICTIONS ALSO POSSIBLE THIS WEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...7
AVIATION...42
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