460
FXUS62 KCAE 040050
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
850 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 00Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE, PEAKING THIS WEEKEND.
ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT ALONG AND NORTH OF
I-20 FROM 12PM-8PM SATURDAY WITH HEAT INDICES UP TO 105F
POSSIBLE.
- 2. INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS
WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE, PEAKING THIS
WEEKEND. ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT ALONG AND
NORTH OF I-20 FROM 12PM-8PM SATURDAY WITH HEAT INDICES UP TO
105F POSSIBLE.
HEADING INTO INDEPENDENCE DAY WEEKEND, THE 594-596DM MID LEVEL
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD WITH ITS CENTER
REMAINING JUST NORTH OF THE FA ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC. AS IT
DOES SO, 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM TOWARD 20-22C,
WHICH IS APPROACHING THE NAEFS 99TH PERCENTILE. ONE DIFFERENCE
FROM PREVIOUS DAY'S IS 925MB DEWPOINTS AROUND 18-19C SHOULD DROP
TOWARD 14-16C ON SATURDAY AS SLIGHTLY DRIER LOW TO MID-LEVEL
AIR WORKS IN FROM THE EAST/NORTHEAST. THIS IS EXPECTED TO
PROMOTE DEEP MIXING SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS
MIXING OUT INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S AS DEPICTED IN LATEST
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND CAM GUIDANCE. THE MIXING OUT OF DRIER
DEWPOINTS AND DRIER SOIL MOISTURES IN PLACE WITH THE LITTLE RAIN
AND PROLONGED HEAT SEEN OVER THE PAST COUPLE DAYS COULD HELP
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES PUSH 98-102F TOMORROW AND AGAIN ON
SUNDAY. ONE CAVEAT IS SLIGHTLY GREATER MOISTURE SHOULD START
MOVING IN ON SUNDAY AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY
SOUTHERLY. AS DISCUSSED PREVIOUSLY, HEAT INDEX VALUES THIS
WEEKEND ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO TOP OUT NEAR 105F, WITH A
COUPLE SPOTS PUSHING 108F POSSIBLE. WHILE WIDESPREAD VALUES
MEETING HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA ARE UNLIKELY, THE MULTITUDE OF
OUTDOOR EVENTS FOR THE HOLIDAY COMBINED WITH PROLONGED HEAT WILL
BRING AN INCREASED RISK FOR HEAT ILLNESS ACROSS THE AREA THIS
WEEKEND. DUE TO THIS, ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
COUNTIES ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20 FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY FROM NOON
TO 8 PM. THE POSSIBILITY OF EXPANDING THIS FURTHER SOUTH/EAST
WILL BE EVALUATED WITH THE NEXT FORECAST PACKAGE. WITH SIMILAR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY, ANOTHER ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO NEXT WEEK, WILL LIKELY BRING
MORE DAYS WITH HEAT INDICES ABOVE 100F (LREF PROBABILITIES ABOVE
70% THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY) AND THE POSSIBILITY OF MORE
HEAT PRODUCTS. THE MAIN FACTOR THAT COMPLICATES HEAT HEADLINES
NEXT WEEK WILL BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION.
BE DILIGENT TO TAKE APPROPRIATE HEAT SAFETY MEASURES THIS
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THE ELDERLY, YOUNG CHILDREN, PETS, AND THOSE
WITHOUT INDOOR COOLING WILL BE AT PARTICULAR RISK THIS WEEKEND
AND OVER THE COMING WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 2: INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
A SPOTTY SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS SHOWN
IN THE RECENT HREF SOLUTION, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THIS. AS
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION, THE UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE REGION WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY SUPPRESSED WITH
PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE MID
ATLANTIC DOWN TOWARD THE CAROLINAS STARTING SUNDAY AND INTO NEXT
WEEK. INCREASING SOUTHERLY IVT IS EXPECTED TO BRING PWAT'S BACK
NEAR 2" AS SHOWN IN OVER 75% OF EC ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. THE SIGNAL
FOR SEASONABLE TO STRONG DIURNAL INSTABILITY PERSISTS ACROSS
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE WITH BOTH GEFS AND EC ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS
HAVING CAPE VALUES OVER 1000 J/KG FOR MULTIPLE DAYS NEXT WEEK.
SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON WITHIN
THIS REGIME AS HIGH CAPE AND LOW SHEAR SHOULD LEAD TO AN
ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE FOR DOWNBURSTS ACROSS THE AREA.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT THE TERMINALS SHORTLY WITH
DECREASING CUMULUS INTO TONIGHT. RIVER FOG REMAINS POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY AT OGB/AGS AND BRIEF VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
ASSOCIATED WITH SMOKE FROM FIREWORKS IS POSSIBLE BUT CONFIDENCE
IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS. AS A RESULT, HAVE KEPT VFR
THROUGH THE TAF WITH SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ONCE AGAIN TOMORROW AND
FEW CUMULUS CLOUDS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RAIN CHANCES AND POSSIBLE
RESTRICTIONS START TO INCREASE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR SCZ016-018-
020>022-025>028-030-115-116.
GA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR GAZ040-
063>065.
DISCUSSION...23
AVIATION...96
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