924
FXUS62 KCAE 081049
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
649 AM EDT MON JUN 8 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 12Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. A TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN EXPECTED THIS WEEK WITH INCREASING
MOISTURE AND WARMING TEMPERATURES DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK
PERIOD.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: A TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN EXPECTED THIS WEEK WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE AND WARMING TEMPERATURES DURING THE MID TO
LATE WEEK PERIOD.
FOR TODAY AND TUESDAY, THE SURFACE RIDGING WILL SHIFT FAR
ENOUGH EAST TO ALLOW DEEPER MOISTURE TO PUSH INTO THE AREA. ON
MONDAY, THE PRIMARY PLUME OF 1.75"+ PWATS WILL STAY PRIMARILY
ACROSS GEORGIA, SO THE MAIN RAIN CHANCES ARE GENERALLY IN THE
CSRA. THIS PLUME OF HIGHER PWAT'S SHIFTS EAST BY TUESDAY AND
YIELDS HIGHER RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. SCATTERED
DAYTIME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE THEN EXPECTED EACH DAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH A FAIRLY TYPICALLY SUMMER
PATTERN IN PLACE. WITH THE RIDGE IN OUR VICINITY, SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL IS UNLIKELY. WHILE PWAT'S SHOULD CLIMB ABOVE 1.75", QPF
TOTALS ACROSS ALL GUIDANCE IS GENERALLY ONLY 0.25-0.75" WITH
SOME ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS IN AREAS THAT SEE REPEATED ROUNDS
OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE COMBINATION OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY COULD
RESULT IN OUR FIRST DAYS OF HEAT INDEX VALUES AT OR ABOVE 100
DEGREES ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, THOUGH STILL BELOW HEAT PRODUCT
CRITERIA.
AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND/OR
STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
EXPECT LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 5 KTS BY LATE MORNING
CONTINUING INTO THE AFTERNOON. A WEAK FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTH AND AN ADDITIONAL BOUNDARY TO OUR WEST COULD BRING AN
ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM TO THE AREA IN THE CSRA LATER THIS
MORNING, THEN LATER IN THE DAY AT OTHER TAF LOCATIONS IN THE
MIDLANDS OF SC. REGIONAL RADAR DOES SHOW LIGHT PRECIP RETURNS
WEST OF THE CSRA, BUT NOT MUCH IF ANY REACHING THE GROUND AT
THIS TIME. THIS WILL SLOWLY PUSH EAST AND INTO THE CSRA BY LATE
MORNING. CONFIDENCE IN AGS/DNL GETTING PROLONGED RAIN IS LOW, SO
FOR NOW GOING WITH VCSH BEGINNING AT 15Z, THEN KEEPING WITH
PROB30 AFTER 18Z FOR SOME THUNDER AT THOSE TWO SITES. REMAINING
TAF SITES WILL NOT MENTION ANY VCSH AT THIS TIME, BUT WILL
CONTINUE WITH PROB30S FOR THIS AFTERNOON TOO. IF A TAF SITE IS
IMPACTED, BRIEF RESTRICTIONS COULD BE POSSIBLE. CLOUDS REMAINING
VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY STORMS, WITH BROKEN CIRRUS AND SOME MID-
LEVEL CU/STRATO-CU POSSIBLE.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...DEEPER MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE
THROUGH THE WEEK LEADING TO SCATTERED, MAINLY DIURNAL, SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION...CAL
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