508
FXUS62 KCAE 301044
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
644 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MINIMAL CHANGES TO KEY MESSAGES. AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED
FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
- 2. WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH DANGEROUS HEAT INDEX
VALUES POSSIBLE THIS WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND.
LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE OVERALL PATTERN TODAY AS THE
TROUGH GRADUALLY WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EAST, WITH HEIGHTS RISING
AHEAD OF THE RIDGE BUILDING INTO OUR AREA. BEFORE THE RIDGE
BECOMES FIRMLY ESTABLISHED, ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE, SUPPORTING DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION DURING
THE AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY SHOULD BE FAIRLY MINIMAL; HOWEVER, HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM ANY POP-UP STORMS
THAT DEVELOP, WITH THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT REMAINING LOW.
KEY MESSAGE 2: WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH DANGEROUS
HEAT INDEX VALUES POSSIBLE THIS WEEK.
RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BECOMES
ESTABLISHED OVER THE SOUTHEAST THIS WEEK. CONFIDENCE IS
INCREASING IN A RETURN TO HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS, KEEPING A
STRONG TASTE OF SUMMER IN PLACE INTO SEPTEMBER. EC ENSEMBLE
500-MB HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE FORECAST TO EXCEED THE 97TH
PERCENTILE MONDAY, RISING ABOVE THE 99TH PERCENTILE THROUGH
MIDWEEK. THE STRONG UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL PROMOTE SIGNIFICANT
SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE REGION, WHICH SHOULD GENERALLY SUPPRESS
CONVECTION. THE RESULT WILL BE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF WELL-AOVE-
NORMAL TEMPERATURES, SUPPORTED BY ENSEMBLE TEMPS AT THE
700/850/1000-MB LEVELS REACHING OR EXCEEDING THE 99TH
PERCENTILE. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S BY
MIDWEEK AND REMAIN THERE EACH DAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE
COMBINATION OF ANOMALOUS HEAT AND INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL RESULT IN HEAT INDICES REACHING 100-105 DEGREES, WITH SOME
LOCATIONS POTENTIALLY HIGHER.
AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
RESTRICTIONS AGAIN THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS, THEN POSSIBLE
AGAIN TOWARDS MONDAY MORNING.
SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWING QUITE A BIT OF LOW
STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED THIS MORNING ACROSS BOTH THE CENTRAL
MIDLANDS AND MUCH OF THE CSRA. CEILING RESTRICTIONS REMAIN
IFR/LIFR AT ISSUANCE, AND SHOULD HOLD THROUGH 15Z BEFORE FINALLY
IMPROVING INTO MVFR. VFR CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
BY 17Z AS MIXING BECOMES BETTER. CAN NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
SHOWER THROUGH THE DAY ANYWHERE, BUT BETTER COVERAGE EXPECTED
OVER THE FAR EASTERN MIDLANDS. HAVE ONLY PLACED PROB30 IN OGB
FOR THIS AFTERNOON AT THIS TIME. GUIDANCE ONCE AGAIN INDICATING
THE POTENTIAL FOR RESTRICTIONS TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AT ALL
LOCATIONS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED EARLY
NEXT WEEK, BUT BRIEF EARLY MORNING RESTRICTIONS STILL POSSIBLE.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ND
AVIATION...73
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