733
FXUS62 KCAE 101742
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
142 PM EDT THU SEP 10 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MINIMAL CHANGE TO KEY MESSAGES. AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR
18Z TAF ISSUANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH INCREASING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
LITTLE HAS CHANGED TO THE FORECAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
GLOBAL ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO FAVOR RIDGING TO OUR EAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH A STRONGER RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHEAST
FOR NEXT WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL SUPPORT SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND DEEP MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WITH PWAT
VALUES NEAR OR ABOVE 2 INCHES. THIS SETUP TENDS TO GIVE THE
FORECAST AREA SCATTERED, DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS. CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE MAY BE A LITTLE HIGHER ON SATURDAY WITH SOME POTENTIAL
SHORTWAVE ENERGY SET TO RIDE UP OVER THE RIDGE INTO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS. WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER CONTINUES TO NOT BE
EXPECTED BUT THE BIGGEST THREATS BEING ISOLATED DOWNBURST WINDS
AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. HEIGHT RISES EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOULD WORK
TO SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WITH JUST ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ABOUT 3 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD, WITH HEAT INDICES APPROACHING THE TRIPLE DIGITS BUT
STILL COOLER THAN THE FIRST WEEK OF SEPTEMBER.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING. BRIEF
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA AS A SCT TO BKN CUMULUS
DECK HAS DEVELOPED. WINDS HAVE BEEN LIGHT AND A BIT VARIABLE,
BUT SHOULD SETTLE GENERALLY OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. A STRAY SHOWER OR TWO CANNOT BE
RULED OUT, BUT PROBABILITIES FOR IMPACTS AT ANY OF THE
TERMINALS IS RATHER LOW. LIGHT WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY
CONTINUE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT, THOUGH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
SHOULD CONTINUE TO ADVECT MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. THIS BRINGS
THE LOW CHANCE FOR BRIEF RESTRICTIONS EARLY FRIDAY DUE TO
STRATUS AND/OR FOG, MAINLY NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN MIDLANDS AND
OGB. PROBABILITIES FOR CEILING RESTRICTIONS ACROSS GUIDANCE ARE
RATHER LOW (20-40%) AT THE MOMENT, THUS HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE OUT
MENTION OF MVFR OR IFR CEILINGS FOR NOW. ANY PATCHY RESTRICTIONS
SHOULD CLEAR THROUGH THE MORNING FRIDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS
TURNING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS AND
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS SHOULD INCREASE JUST AFTER THIS TAF
PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RAIN CHANCES INCREASE INTO THE WEEKEND
ALONG WITH A HIGHER PROBABILITY FOR MORNING FOG/STRATUS CONCERNS DUE
TO HIGHER ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...96
AVIATION...DH
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