770
FXUS62 KCAE 210019
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
819 PM EDT SAT JUN 20 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 00Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN RETURNS THIS WEEKEND
INTO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN RETURNS THIS
WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
AN ISOLATED SPRINKLE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS THIS
NEXT HOUR. THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT WILL BE DRY WITH MAINLY CIRRUS
OVERHEAD THAT SHOULD CLEAR BY SUNRISE SUNDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 60S.
EXPECT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO CREEP BACK INTO THE FORECAST AREA
ON SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER DAY WITH
HIGHER HEAT AND HUMIDITY. DESPITE THE HIGHER PWATS, THE CHANCE
FOR RAIN REMAINS LOW RIGHT NOW WITH SOME A BRIEF WINDOW FOR
CONVECTION ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN MIDLANDS IN THE HOLLY
HILL AREA. OVERALL, ANOTHER DRY DAY IS FAVORED FOR MOST
LOCATIONS.
THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK IS EXPECTED TO FEATURE CONTINUED SUMMER-
LIKE WEATHER CONDITIONS. EACH DAY WILL BE HOT AND HUMID WITH
DAILY CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE DAY 3 SPC SWO PLACED THE NORTHWESTERN HALF
OF THE CWA IN A MARGINAL (1/5) RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON MONDAY
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE FA. SHOULD ORGANIZED CONVECTION
DEVELOP, DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD.
LATE NEXT WEEK, A STRONGER UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO
BUILD OVER THE FOUR CORNERS, PROMOTING BROADER TROUGHING ACROSS
THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS PATTERN MAY SUPPORT A MORE ORGANIZED
WEATHER SYSTEM AFFECTING THE AREA, THOUGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW
REGARDING TIMING AND EVOLUTION.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
DRY AIR REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION, WITH LIGHT
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS KEEPING MOST OF THE LOW AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS
OUTSIDE THE AREA. CIRRUS WILL CONTINUE STREAMING OVERHEAD
BEFORE THINNING OUT A BIT ON SUNDAY. SOME SCATTERED MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP NEAR THE CSRA THROUGH THIS EVENING AS DEEPER
MOISTURES REMAINS JUST SOUTH OF THE FA.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS THANKS
TO THE DRY LOW-LEVELS. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT
BEFORE SHIFTING FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY, INCREASING
TO 5-7 KT BY MIDDAY. MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY, ALTHOUGH AN
ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN MIDLANDS. PROBABILITIES REMAIN TOO LOW AND
LOCALIZED FOR INCLUSION AT THIS TIME.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...DIURNALLY DRIVEN ISOLATED CONVECTION TO
RETURN. BETTER RAIN CHANCES AND COVERAGE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY
AHEAD OF ANOTHER APPROACHING FRONT. AFTER THAT, A RETURN TO MORE
SUMMER-LIKE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS
EXPECTED, WITH RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITH ANY ACTIVITY THROUGH
THE PERIOD.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...7/EC
AVIATION...ND
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