645
FXUS62 KCAE 110059
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
859 PM EDT FRI JUL 10 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED KEY MESSAGES FOR DECLINING STORM CHANCES TONIGHT.
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 00Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. SCATTERED STORMS EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOONS WITH
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS SUNDAY AND MONDAY ASSOCIATED
WITH A FRONT.
- 2. HOT, HUMID AND BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH COOLER
CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT LATE WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: SCATTERED STORMS EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOONS
WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS SUNDAY AND MONDAY ASSOCIATED
WITH A FRONT.
ESSENTIALLY ALL OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FROM THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING HAS MOVED OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH HOW
WORKED OVER THE ATMOSPHERE IS BEHIND THIS ACTIVITY, ANY
ADDITIONAL SHOWER OR STORM CHANCES TONIGHT WILL BE LIMITED. SO,
POPS HAVE BEEN LOWERED TO JUST SLIGHT CHANCE AT BEST.
TOMORROW SCATTERED STORMS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN WITH COVERAGE
SIMILAR OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER WITH A BIT STRONGER UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT AS THE WEAK RIDGING THAT WE REMAINED SOMEWHAT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH A
MORE ZONAL FLOW. IN ADDITION, PWATS EXPECTED TO INCREASE WITH
SPC HREF MEAN SHOWING VALUES GREATER THAN 2 INCHES OVER MOST OF
THE FORECAST AREA. ENVIRONMENT MAY BE SLIGHTLY WEAKER TO SUPPORT
SEVERE STORMS BASED ON HIRES FORECAST SOUNDINGS WITH WEAKER
CLOUD LAYER SHEAR AND NOT QUITE AS UNSTABLE AN ENVIRONMENT BUT
WE REMAIN IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR TOMORROW WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
A FEW STORMS TO PRODUCE STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS.
AS A FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, BLENDED
GUIDANCE SUPPORTS WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS NEAR THE FRONT
EACH DAY, FAVORING THE AFTERNOONS WHERE MODERATE INSTABILITY
WILL DEVELOP. WHILE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED,
ESPECIALLY MONDAY WHERE INSTABILITY MAY STRUGGLE TO DEVELOP, A
FEW STORMS COULD APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS. STORMS WILL LIKELY HAVE
EFFICIENT RAIN RATES, ALTHOUGH FLOW WILL BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO
CAUSE MAJOR FLOODING CONCERNS. IT WILL BE WORTH MONITORING
POTENTIAL TRAINING WITH THE FLOW GENERALLY PARALLEL TO THE
FRONT. ENSEMBLE MEANS FAVOR DRIER AIR PUSHING INTO THE AREA BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 2: HOT, HUMID AND BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH
COOLER CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT LATE WEEKEND INTO
NEXT WEEK.
HOT, HUMID AND BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH THE HOTTEST DAYS
OF THE PERIOD EXPECTED TO BE TODAY AND TOMORROW. THE INCREASED
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE BOTH TODAY AND TOMORROW MAY LIMIT THE EXTENT
OF OUR HIGH TEMPERATURE AND HEAT INDEX BUT CONTINUE TO EXPECT
TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT INDICES FOR TODAY AND TOMORROW WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 90S AND DEW POINTS REMAINING IN THE 70S.
BLENDED GUIDANCE IQR CONTINUES TO FAVOR LOWER TEMPERATURES
ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT AND WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND
CONVECTION EACH DAY. GIVEN THE RECENT HOT WEATHER, THE NBM
TAKES THAT INTO ACCOUNT AND WILL LIKELY HAVE A WARM BIAS. SO, I
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF WE END UP TOWARD THE COOLER END OF THE
IQR. THIS AIR MASS WILL BE VERY HUMID, WITH BLENDED DEW POINTS
CONTINUING IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD, WITH SOME
MORNING FOG POSSIBLE AND AFTERNOON CONVECTION.
CONVECTIVE HAS PUSHED OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA, CONFINED NOW TO
THE COASTAL PLAIN AND NORTH OF CLT. MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER AND
LIGHT WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. WITH RAINFALL AT AGS, SOME MORNING FOG IS POSSIBLE BUT
TOO LOW CONFIDENCE IN RESTRICTIONS TO MENTION ANY IN THE TAF'S
YET. OTHERWISE, SATURDAY WILL BE MUCH OF THE SAME AS FRIDAY WITH
STRENGTHENING WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS BY LATE MORNING AND TYPICAL
SUMMER CU. AFTERNOON SHOWERS-STORMS ARE LIKELY AGAIN WITH ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE FOR A PROB30 RIGHT NOW.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON
STORMS SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...29/96
AVIATION...42
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