862
FXUS62 KCAE 231707
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
107 PM EDT THU APR 23 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
A SLIGHTLY LOWER CHANCE FOR RAIN ON TUESDAY THAN PREVIOUS
FORECAST. AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR THE 18Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AND PERIODIC SMOKE IMPACTS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY.
- 2. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK,
BUT MEANINGFUL DROUGHT RELIEF REMAINS UNCERTAIN.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AND PERIODIC
SMOKE IMPACTS WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY.
A DRY AIR MASS PERSISTS OVER THE REGION WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES CURRENTLY IN THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE, WHICH POTENTIALLY
COULD DROP BELOW 20 PERCENT BRIEFLY YET THIS AFTERNOON. RH
VALUES ARE LIKELY TO DROP BELOW 30 PERCENT FRIDAY FOR MANY
LOCATIONS. MUCH OF THE AREA REMAINS IN SEVERE TO EXTREME
DROUGHT. DESPITE THE LACK OF STRONGER WINDS, THE COMBINATION OF
LOW RH AND DRY FUELS RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER EACH
AFTERNOON. LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND HRRR SMOKE GUIDANCE ONCE
INDICATE THAT A LULL IN SMOKE OVER THE AREA CAN BE EXPECTED INTO
TONIGHT, BUT COULD SETTLE BACK INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FRIDAY AS WINDS TRANSLATE SMOKE FROM
WILDFIRES ACROSS THE REGION. SOUTH CAROLINA DEPARTMENT OF
ENVIRONMENTAL SERVICES ISSUED AN AIR QUALITY ALERT FOR TODAY FOR
THE CSRA AND MIDLANDS OF SOUTH CAROLINA. IN ADDITION, THE SC
FORESTRY COMMISSION CONTINUES A BURN BAN UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.
KEY MESSAGE 2: RAIN CHANCES INCREASE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK, BUT MEANINGFUL DROUGHT RELIEF REMAINS UNCERTAIN.
A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS THE UPPER RIDGE
BREAKS DOWN AND THE BERMUDA HIGH WEAKENS. HREF MEMBERS CONTINUE
TO INDICATE SOME ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY TOMORROW. HOWEVER,
LOOKING AT FORECAST SOUNDINGS, EVEN WITH A BIT OF AN INCREASE IN
PWATS, SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF LOW LEVEL DRY AIR WILL LIMIT THE
POTENTIAL OF ANY RAIN FROM REACHING THE SURFACE. HIGHER CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVE ON SATURDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT, ALTHOUGH MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT
THIS SYSTEM WILL BE RELATIVELY PROGRESSIVE, LIMITING TOTAL
RAINFALL. ISOLATED CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS SUNDAY AND
MONDAY WITH ANOTHER FRONT LIKELY APPROACHING TUESDAY LEADING TO
SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCES FOR RAINFALL. WHILE THERE LOOKS TO BE
SEVERAL CHANCES FOR RAIN OVER THE COMING DAYS, THE DROUGHT IS
LIKELY NOT GOING TO BE SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED ANYTIME SOON AS THE
LATEST RUNS OF THE GEFS AND EC ENSEMBLE CONTINUE TO SHOW JUST A
MEAGER CHANCES OF GREATER THAN AN INCH OF RAIN THROUGH THE NEXT
7 DAYS; 20-30% AND LESS THAN 10%, RESPECTIVELY. IT WILL TAKE
MUCH MORE RAIN THAN THAT TO ELIMINATE THE DROUGHT ACROSS THE
AREA.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE, BUT PERIODS OF HAZE
FROM WILDFIRE SMOKE REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.
5-8 KT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AS FEW TO SCT
CUMULUS DEVELOP WITH LINGERING WILDFIRE SMOKE, THOUGH
VISIBILITIES ACROSS THE AREA ARE GENERALLY GREATER THAN 6SM.
THESE CONDITIONS CONTINUE THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY, WHERE BRIEF
PERIODS WITH LOWER THAN 6SM VISIBILITY FROM WILDFIRE SMOKE WILL
BE POSSIBLE, BUT THIS IS SEEMING A BIT MORE UNLIKELY GIVEN
RECENT HRRR NEAR SURFACE SMOKE RUNS. TONIGHT, WINDS BECOME
LIGHT AND A BIT MORE SOUTHERLY AS A 25-30 KT LLJ IS SHOWN IN
BUFKIT MODELS. HAVE LEFT OUT LLWS AT THIS TIME WITH SURFACE
WINDS NEAR 3-5 KTS, BUT THIS MAY NEED TO BE INCLUDED IF SURFACE
WINDS END UP A BIT WEAKER OR THE LLJ IS STRONGER THAN MODELED.
FOR FRIDAY, DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL WITH LIGHT WINDS OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST ONCE AGAIN AND SCT CUMULUS DEVELOPING DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THE 12Z HRRR NEAR SURFACE SMOKE RUN DOES DEPICT THE
POTENTIAL FOR REDUCED VISIBILITIES AGAIN NEAR THE END OF THE
PERIOD BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO ADD INTO THE TAF AT THIS
TIME.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RAIN CHANCES INCREASE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WHICH MAY INTRODUCE PERIODS OF
RESTRICTIONS, BUT CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE REMAINS LOW. RAIN
CHANCES MAY CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AS WELL.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ018-
020>022-025>031-035-037-038-041-135>137.
GA...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GAZ064-065.
DISCUSSION...29
AVIATION...DH
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