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FXUS62 KCAE 171052
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
652 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2025
SYNOPSIS
UPPER LOW TO OUR NORTHEAST WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE
REGION TODAY. DRY AND WARMING TEMPS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEK WITH GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS, ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED
SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT TODAY ACROSS THE CSRA.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- UPPER LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION
- CONTINUED WARM AND DRY
THE UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHEAST VA AND EASTERN NC WILL GRADUALLY
LIFT AWAY FROM THE REGION TODAY. SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING
TROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH MAY BE ENOUGH TO SPARK AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR TWO MAINLY ACROSS THE CSRA AND SOUTHERN MIDLANDS BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LIMITED DUE TO MARGINAL MOISTURE WITH PWATS AROUND
1.2-1.3 INCHES AND LITTLE TO NO INSTABILITY. NBM CONTINUES A
DRY FORECAST BUT CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER.
WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUE WITH HIGHS EXPECTED IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. SKIES BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR
OVERNIGHT ALLOWING FOR REASONABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS EXPECTED IN THE LOWER 60S.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
AS AN UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGHING LIFT NORTHEAST AWAY FROM
OUR AREA, STEADY HEIGHT RISES ARE EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
ALONG WITH BROAD WEAK SURFACE RIDGING. WITH SOME WEAK DOWNSLOPING
FLOW AND STILL HIGH SUN ANGLE, TEMPS WILL WARM ABOVE AVERAGE BOTH
DAYS AND GENERAL SUBSIDENCE ALOFT SHOULD KEEP CLOUD COVER SCATTERED
ALONG DESPITE NEAR AVERAGE PWAT'S.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- STEADY COOLDOWN EXPECTED AS STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN.
A CONTINUATION OF THE PATTERN FROM THURSDAY-FRUDAY IS EXPECTED INTO
SATURDAY, WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS EXPECTED AND DRY CONDITIONS
CONTINUING. BEYOND SATURDAY, THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN ALOFT WILL NOT
CHANGE ALL THAT MUCH THROUGH THE REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH
RELATIVELY WEAK FLOW AND STEADY HEIGHTS. HOWEVER, A SHARP TROUGH
DIGGING ACROSS THE NE CONUS AND COUPLED SURFACE HIGH UPSTREAM WILL
LEADING TO STEADILY INCREASING SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE AREA
STARTING SUNDAY. SOME SUBTLE COLD-DRY ADVECTION LOOK TO BE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SAGGING SURFACE HIGH, SO TEMPS WILL GENERALLY
FALL BACK AROUND AVERAGE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. NAEFS CONSISTENTLY
SHOWS THIS STRONG SURFACE RIDGING AND WITH SOME INCREASING PWAT'S
AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT, THIS COULD BE A DECENT WEDGE SETUP;
OTHERWISE THE DRY AND RATHER UNREMARKABLE WEATHER LOOKS TO
CONTINUE WITH NAEFS AND EC EFI SHOWING NOTHING PARTICULARLY
ANOMALOUS INTO NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AN UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHEAST VA AND EASTERN NC WILL SLOWLY LIFT
AWAY FROM THE REGION TODAY. POCKETS OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT NO RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED.
EXPECT A CUMULUS CLOUD DECK TO DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING WITH
SURFACE HEATING. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO
AROUND THE CSRA BUT AGAIN CONFIDENCE IS LOW SO NOT INCLUDED IN
THE FORECAST. WINDS SHOULD PICK UP TO AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS FROM
THE WEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE DROPPING BACK TO LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TO CALM AFTER 00Z.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A DRY AIR MASS WILL BE OVER THE
REGION THIS WEEK AND NO SIGNIFICANT AVIATION RESTRICTIONS
EXPECTED.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
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