605
FXUS62 KCAE 031045
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
645 AM EDT WED JUN 3 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN TONIGHT, WITH NEAR
RECORD MORNING LOWS POSSIBLE.
- 2. TEMPERATURES REMAIN A BIT BELOW NORMAL TODAY BEFORE A
WARMING TREND IS SEEN INTO THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN TONIGHT, WITH
NEAR RECORD MORNING LOWS POSSIBLE.
DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER IN BEHIND YESTERDAY'S FRONT WITH
SURFACE DEW POINTS DOWN INTO THE 50S ACROSS THE REGION, THOUGH
DEW POINTS DOWN INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S ARE MOVING INTO
CENTRAL NC. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE ALREADY SEEN ACROSS THE CWA
AND MESOANALYSIS REVEALS ANOTHER PUSH OF WEAK 925-850MB CAA IS
MOVING THROUGH AS WELL. OVERALL, THIS SET UP IS EXPECTED TO
YIELD COOL OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES THAT BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOW TO
MID 50S, THOUGH SHELTERED SPOTS IN THE UPPER 40S SEEMS POSSIBLE.
THESE TEMPERATURES ARE WELL BELOW NORMAL AND COULD FALL WITHIN
2-5 DEGREES OF RECORD LOWS WITH THE RECORD LOW ON JUNE 3RD FOR
CAE BEING 49F AND 51F FOR AGS. THE LATEST FORECAST IS 53F AT CAE
AND 52F AT AGS. THE MAIN LIMITING IN SEEING TEMPERATURES MUCH
LOWER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST IS THE DELAYED NATURE OF SUB 50
DEW POINTS PUSHING INTO THE AREA.
KEY MESSAGE 2: TEMPERATURES REMAIN A BIT BELOW NORMAL TODAY
BEFORE A WARMING TREND IS SEEN INTO THIS WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN A BIT COOLER THAN
NORMAL, IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S, BEFORE VERY LITTLE CHANGE
IS SEEN IN THE OUTLOOK FOR THE LATE WEEK AND INTO THIS WEEKEND.
A STRONG AND BROAD UPPER RIDGE NEAR NAEFS 90TH PERCENTILE WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT OVER THE EASTERN US STARTING THURSDAY,
REMAINING IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST THE START OF THIS WEEKEND.
THIS RIDGE AND WARMING 850MB TEMPERATURES SHOULD BRING WARMER
TEMPERATURES THAT APPROACH THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S EACH DAY
THROUGH SUNDAY, POSSIBLY INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK. THERE IS
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK HOWEVER AS
THERE IS SOME INDICATION IN ENSEMBLE AND GLOBAL GUIDANCE THAT
THE UPPER RIDGE MAY BEGIN BREAKING DOWN SOME WITH POSSIBLE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ENTERING AGAIN.
AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...
DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING
WHICH WILL LIMIT RESTRICTIONS WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNDER
CLEAR SKIES. WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST ONCE AGAIN
TODAY, LIKELY NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS YESTERDAY WITH GUSTS
GENERALLY IN THE TEENS, WITH WINDS TAPERING OFF AROUND SUNSET.
DRY AIR ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE FOG TONIGHT, ALTHOUGH
BRIEF VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT FOG PRONE AGS
AND OGB NEAR SUNRISE TOMORROW MORNING.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO HANG ON
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DH
AVIATION...96
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