985
FXUS62 KCAE 171747
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
147 PM EDT THU SEP 17 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 18Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. MOISTURE INCREASES HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT
WEEK, BRINGING RAIN CHANCES BACK TO THE AREA.
- 2. MORE SEASONABLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR RETURNS BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: MOISTURE INCREASES HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AND
INTO NEXT WEEK, BRINGING RAIN CHANCES BACK TO THE AREA.
AN UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE, AN UPPER LOW IS DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO RETROGRADE WESTWARD, DRIVEN BY THE
UPPER LOW MOVING WESTWARD OVER FLORIDA AND INTO THE GULF. THIS
WILL LEAVE OUR AREA ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE. AS IT
DOES, MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY
THURSDAY BEFORE RAMPING UP FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. ENERGY
MOVING AROUND THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER RIDGE BRINGS INCREASED
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING FRIDAY AFTERNOON
CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK AS MOISTURE
LINGERS. AT THE SURFACE, A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE FORECAST
AREA, BUT STAYS JUST TO THE NORTH WORKING WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL
LOW TO CREATE SHOWERS AND STORMS. SOME LOCALIZED STORMS MAY BE
SEVERE MAINLY WITH LOCALIZED WIND GUSTS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. PW'S
RANGE BETWEEN 1.6 AND 2 WITH STEEP LOW- LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
DOWNDRAFT CAPE AS HIGH AS 1,000 J/KG AIDING IN LOCALIZED
DOWNBURST WINDS. MAIN WINDOW IS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WITH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS LINGERING AFTER DARK. SHOWERS AND
STORMS RETURN SATURDAY AFTERNOON, BUT MOSTLY SUB- SEVERE. A
RELATIVE LULL IN ACTIVITY REMAINS POSSIBLE FOR SUNDAY. AS FAR AS
TEMPERATURES GO, A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE TODAY INTO TOMORROW BEFORE RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL AS
WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 2: MORE SEASONABLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR RETURNS BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
BY MID-NEXT WEEK, AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IN THE 95TH PERCENTILE
WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW RETURNS
TO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH-PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO NEW ENGLAND PROMOTING NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE MOVES THROUGH BY MID-WEEK, BUT TIMING AND
INTENSITY OF THE FRONT IS UNCERTAIN. IT IS LIKELY HIGH
TEMPERATURES DROP TO THE LOW TO MID-80S WITH LOWS IN THE MID 60S,
BUT UNCERTAINTY EXISTS DUE TO THE LARGE SPREAD.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD.
SKC THIS AFTERNOON WITH FEW HIGH CIRRUS PASSING FROM TIME TO
TIME WITH NO IMPACTS AT THE TERMINALS. HIGH PRESSURE IS
PROVIDING LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TODAY, AND THAT SHOULD
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, SOME VERY BRIEF FOG
IS POSSIBLE AT AGS AS PER LATEST LAMP GUIDANCE, BUT CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW. WINDS FRIDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT AROUND
SUNRISE, BUT MAY DEVELOP A MORE WESTERLY COMPONENT BY LATE
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. FEW-SCT CUMULUS AROUND 4-6KFT MSL
SHOULD ALSO DEVELOP AROUND MIDDAY FRIDAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE WEEKEND. MORNING VSBY RESTRICTIONS
ARE POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND AS WELL.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...NS
AVIATION...EC
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