324
FXUS62 KCAE 130620
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
220 AM EDT TUE OCT 13 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE OVERALL FORECAST. AVIATION DISCUSSION
UPDATED FOR 06Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. DRY, WARM WEATHER FAVORED THROUGH THE WEEK.
- 2. POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG COLD FRONT TO USHER IN A MUCH
COOLER AIR MASS FOR THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: DRY, WARM WEATHER FAVORED THROUGH THE WEEK.
A STRONG UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
THIS MORNING IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD AND OVER OUR AREA
THROUGH THE WEEK. AS IT DOES, DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST AND
AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE LIKELY TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK, PARTICULARLY FOR THE LAST
HALF OF THE WEEK. FOR REFERENCE, THE NORMAL HIGHS FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR ARE NEAR 80 FOR THE AREA AND FORECAST HIGHS ARE IN THE
UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD. RECORD HIGHS FOR
BOTH AUGUSTA AND COLUMBIA ARE POSSIBLE BEGINNING WEDNESDAY, SO
THAT WILL BEAR WATCHING.
KEY MESSAGE 2: POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG COLD FRONT TO USHER IN A MUCH
COOLER AIR MASS FOR THE WEEKEND.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER TROUGH OVER WESTERN
CANADA TRANSLATES EASTWARD, BEGINS TO DIG SOUTHWARD, AND PHASE
WITH AN UPPER LOW THAT'S OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BEGINNING
MIDWEEK. THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE DIGGING SOUTH AND
MOVE EASTWARD, BECOMING A FAIRLY DEEP TROUGH BY THE TIME IT
REACHES THE EASTERN CONUS BY NEXT WEEKEND. A STRONG COLD FRONT
IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER TROUGH, WHICH
SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH
FOR MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY WINDS FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. HOWEVER, THERE REMAINS SOME DISAGREEMENT ON HOW STRONG
AND FAST THIS LIKELY FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA, PLAYING A
ROLE IN OUR AFTERNOON HIGHS OVER THE WEEKEND. DESPITE HOW STRONG
THE FRONT LOOKS, THERE DOESN'T APPEAR TO BE MUCH MOISTURE TO
WORK WITH AT THIS TIME, SO IT DOES LOOK TO BE A DRY FRONT.
BREEZY CONDITIONS
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD OUTSIDE OF
POTENTIAL EARLY MORNING PATCHY FOG.
CURRENTLY, CLEAR SKIES OVER THE TERMINALS. UPSTREAM, THERE ARE
SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAKING THEIR WAY ACROSS THE REGION. OTHERWISE
EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM OVERNIGHT, THEN
SHIFTING TO THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AFTER ABOUT 15Z, REMAINING
LIGHT AROUND 5 KTS THROUGH THE DAY.
THERE REMAINS A SMALL CHANCE FOR FOG WITH HIGHEST CHANCES AT
THE FOG PRONE AGS OR OGB; WE HAVE SEEN SOME TRANSIENT SHALLOW
FOG AT AGS ALREADY OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO
BE LOW AT THIS TIME IN IMPACTS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT AVIATION CONCERNS.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...29
AVIATION...42
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