392
FXUS62 KCAE 070552
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1252 AM EST SAT FEB 7 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATES TO THE AVIATION SECTION FOR THE 06Z. INCREASING WIND
GUSTS EXPECTED IN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS WHICH WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) BREEZY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT, DECREASING THIS
AFTERNOON.
- 2) TEMPERATURES BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY
A SIGNIFICANT WARMUP NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE #1: BREEZY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT,
DECREASING THIS AFTERNOON.
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WITH
WINDS SHIFTING OUT OF THE NORTHWEST BEHIND IT LEADING TO
STRENGTHENING COLD ADVECTION. LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATES THAT
925MB HAVE INCREASED TO BETWEEN 30 TO 40 KNOTS. WHILE MIXING TO
THIS POINT HAS BEEN LIMITED, FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
WEAKENING OF THE INVERSION AS THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS. AS
A RESULT, EXPECT WIND GUSTS TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
HOURS AND REMAIN BREEZY THROUGH MORNING, ESPECIALLY AFTER
SUNRISE. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM TODAY
AS THE COMPARATIVELY WARMER LAKES WILL LEAD TO MORE EFFICIENT
MIXING. GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH REMAIN POSSIBLE, DECREASING THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE JET WEAKENS WITH HIGH PRESSURE BEGINNING TO
RIDGE OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
KEY MESSAGE #2: TEMPERATURES BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
FOLLOWED BY A SIGNIFICANT WARMUP NEXT WEEK.
COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LEADING TO
TEMPERATURES LIKELY AROUND 10 DEGREES COLDER TODAY THAN
YESTERDAY. RELATIVELY STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OVERHEAD WILL LEAD TO
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 20S (TEENS IN SHELTERED
LOCATIONS), EXPECTED TO BE THE COLDEST NIGHT/MORNING IN THE
PERIOD. UPPER RIDGING LATE THIS WEEKEND WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER
THE CENTRAL US WITH BLENDED GUIDANCE FAVORING ABOVE WELL NORMAL
TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK; TEMPS 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE ARE
LIKELY WITH DAYTIME HIGHS POSSIBLY GETTING INTO THE MID-70'S BY
LATE NEXT WEEK. SIGNIFICANTLY MORE UNCERTAINTY IN THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AS A FRONT
WILL LIKELY BE NEAR THE AREA, INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.
SURFACE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE REGION, WITH WINDS
TURNING NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD. SHOULD SEE SUSTAINED
WINDS BETWEEN 6-12 KNOTS, WITH GUSTS INCREASING OVERNIGHT AND
THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY TO BETWEEN 15-20 KNOTS AT ALL TAF
LOCATIONS. LOW-LEVEL JET WILL KEEP WINDS BETWEEN THE SURFACE AND
2KFT UP TO 30 KNOTS, BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW LLWS
CRITERIA WITH SURFACE WINDS REMAINING UP. WIND GUSTS DIMINISH
TOWARDS SUNSET SATURDAY EVENING, BUT SUSTAINED WINDS WILL REMAIN
BETWEEN 5-10 KNOTS AFTER SUNSET OCCURS. AS FOR ANY CLOUDS, SKIES
SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR. THERE ARE SOME CLOUDS ACROSS FAR WESTERN
NC AND NORTHERN GA, BUT WITH NORTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPING FLOW, CLOUDS
WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE AS THEY MOVE INTO THE UPSTATE OF SC.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO ANTICIPATED AVIATION CONCERNS THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MOVING INTO MID-WEEK AS
ANOTHER SYSTEM PUSHES INTO THE REGION AND BRINGS RAIN POTENTIAL
ALONG WITH IT.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR SCZ016-
018-020>022-025>031-035-037-038-041-115-116-135>137.
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR GAZ040-
063>065-077.
DISCUSSION...96
AVIATION...73
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