148
FXUS62 KCAE 301735
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
135 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SEPARATED THE ORIGINAL KEY MESSAGE INTO TWO WHILE MAKING
MARGINAL CHANGES. AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. DRIER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WILL PROVIDE A
BREAK FROM THE OPPRESSIVE HEAT AND HUMIDITY.
- 2. RAIN CHANCES RAMP BACK UP THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN RETURNS.
DISCUSSION
- 1. DRIER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WILL PROVIDE A
BREAK FROM THE OPPRESSIVE HEAT AND HUMIDITY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE JUST SOUTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL
MAINTAIN A LIGHT, DRY NORTHERLY BREEZE OVER THE AREA. ALOFT,
NORTHWEST FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE
TO SUPPORT DRY CONDITIONS AND LOWER DEWPOINTS, GIVING US A MUCH
DESERVED TWO-DAY BREAK FROM HEAT/HUMIDITY TODAY AND TOMORROW.
TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW NORMAL, WITH
DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE LOW 60S AND MID TO UPPER 50S. THE
FORECAST TOMORROW IS LARGELY A REPEAT AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OVER
THE APPALACHIANS TONIGHT. WHILE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL (90-94F) BOTH DAYS, THE NOTICEABLY LOWER HUMIDITY WILL
MAKE FOR MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS.
- 2. RAIN CHANCES RAMP BACK UP THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN RETURNS.
AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND, THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN BECOMES MORE
FAVORABLE FOR RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE
RETREATS, ALLOWING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO RETURN AND BRING AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE BEGINNING SATURDAY. THE OVERALL PATTERN
SUPPORTS SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS,
ALTHOUGH RECENT RAINFALL TRENDS SUGGEST CAUTION IS WARRANTED
REGRADING COVERAGE. EVEN SO, THE LARGE-SCALE SETUP APPEARS
FAVORABLE FOR NUMEROUS, EFFICIENT SHOWERS AND STORMS BEGINNING
SATURDAY EVENING AND CONTINUING INTO MONDAY.
A MATURING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE
OH VALLEY AND OCCLUDE AS IT TRACKS SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASES AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM, WITH
PWS CLIMBING BACK TO AROUND 2" AND REMAINING ELEVATED INTO NEXT
WEEK. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST, WITH THE
BEST OVERALL CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIP ARRIVING ON SUNDAY.
DAILY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK, WITH THE MOIST ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTING LOWER MAX
TEMPERATURES DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND CONVECTION DURING
PEAK HEATING. WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER CURRENTLY APPEARS
UNLIKELY GIVEN THE VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE WITH POTENTIAL
FLASH FLOODING BEING THE MAIN THREAT.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
WITH THE DRIER AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION, EXPECTING VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL LOCATIONS. SHOULD ONLY SEE A FEW
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING MID-LEVEL CUMULUS, THEN SKIES RETURN
TO CLEAR OVERNIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY. WINDS GENERALLY VARIABLE
AROUND 5 KNOTS THROUGH SUNSET, THEN EITHER CALM OR VERY LIGHT
OVERNIGHT.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RAIN AND RESTRICTIONS BECOME
INCREASINGLY LIKELY THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ND
AVIATION...73
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