714
FXUS62 KCAE 310029
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
829 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ISOLATED SHOWERS STORMS HAVE DIMINISHED ACROSS THE AREA.
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. GENERALLY DRY WEATHER AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED WITH DANGEROUS HEAT INDEX VALUES POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK.
- 2. ACTIVE WEATHER AND DECREASING TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE NEXT
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1. WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED WITH
DANGEROUS HEAT INDEX VALUES POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK.
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE CONSISTENT IN SHOWING A
STRONG 596DM UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
MID MS VALLEY AREA BUILDING EASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEK BECOMING
SITUATED OVER THE SOUTHERN OH VALLEY AND CAROLINAS BY MID WEEK
THEN GRADUALLY WEAKENING AND BEGINNING TO SLOWLY RETROGRADE BY
THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN STRONG SUBSIDENCE
OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEK WITH ENSEMBLE FORECAST 700MB
TEMPERATURES AT THE 99TH PERCENTILE WITH VALUES AROUND +10C.
THESE HIGH VALUES AND THE NOTABLE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AT 700MB
INCREASES CONFIDENCE IN THE GENERAL LACK OF CONVECTION EXPECTED.
ENSEMBLE TEMPERATURES AT 850/1000MB ARE FORECAST TO BE ABOVE
THE 90TH PERCENTILE EARLY IN THE WEEK AND AT THE 99TH PERCENTILE
MID TO LATE WEEK SUGGESTING A STRONG WARMING TREND THROUGH THE
WEEK WITH ANOMALOUSLY HIGH TEMPERATURES (ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL). MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ALSO EXPECTED TO BE ANOMALOUSLY
HIGH WITH EC EFI SHOWING VALUES AROUND 0.7-0.8 AND A NONZERO
SHIFT OF TAILS (SIMILAR TO THE MAX TEMPERATURES) WITH VALUES
ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWESTERLY
SURFACE FLOW THROUGH THE WEEK WILL KEEP THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
IN PLACE RESULTING IN HEAT INDICES RISING ABOVE 100 DEGREES ALL
WEEK AND APPROACHING HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA MID TO LATE WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 2. ACTIVE WEATHER AND DECREASING TEMPERATURES
POSSIBLE NEXT WEEKEND.
ENSEMBLES AND GLOBAL GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE
STRONG UPPER RIDGE RETROGRADING WESTWARD BACK OVER THE PLAINS
STATES ALLOWING FOR UPPER TROUGHING ALONG THE EAST COAST NEXT
WEEKEND. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT SLIGHTLY COOLING TEMPERATURES AND
ALSO ALLOW SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO DIVE DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE
RETREATING RIDGE, BRINGING INCREASED CHANCES OF RAINFALL BACK TO
THE FORECAST AREA. RAINFALL WILL BE WELCOMED AGAIN AFTER A LONG
HOT AND GENERALLY DRY WEEK AHEAD.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING.
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE SHIFTING TO THE EAST THIS EVENING
LEADING TO CLEARING SKIES OVER THE AREA. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES,
ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE, AND LIGHT WINDS IN THE LOWER 5KFT
OF THE ATMOSPHERE SUPPORT ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG/STRATUS TONIGHT AND
EARLY MONDAY. A PERSISTENCE FORECAST SHOULD VERIFY WELL GIVEN
THE PATTERN WE HAVE BEEN STUCK IN. HOWEVER, TONIGHT THE TAF
SITES MIGHT SEE MORE EXTENSIVE FOG DEVELOPMENT GIVEN THE CLEARER
SKIES. SO WE HAVE TRENDED MORE TOWARDS THAT IN THE PREDOMINANT
AND TEMPO GROUPS. EXPECT RESTRICTIONS TO DEVELOP AROUND 08Z WITH
IFR OR LIFR CIGS/VIS BY SUNRISE. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE
AFTER 14Z AT ALL SITES BUT MVFR CEILINGS COULD CONTINUE UNTIL
18Z. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT, AROUND 5 KTS, MONDAY AND OUT OF THE
EAST BUT COULD BE VARIABLE FOR LARGE PORTIONS OF THE DAY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE LIMITED IN COVERAGE ONCE
AGAIN SO WE HAVE LEFT OUT MENTION OF CONVECTION MONDAY AFTERNOON
FOR THE TIME BEING.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...EARLY MORNING RESTRICTIONS STILL
POSSIBLE DESPITE A DRIER OUTLOOK FOR THE WEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ND/23
AVIATION...CJR
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