935
FXUS62 KCAE 161801
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
201 PM EDT FRI APR 16 2021
SYNOPSIS
DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL
RETURN TO THE AREA SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY AS A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSES THE REGION AND BEST CHANCES IN THE CSRA
AND SOUTHERN MIDLANDS. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR EARLY
NEXT WEEK BEFORE ANOTHER FRONT CROSSES THE REGION MIDWEEK
BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS FOR LATE NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
THIS AFTERNOON...TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN SLOW TO RISE DUE TO SOME
HIGHER CLOUDS AND LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS. HOWEVER, HIGHER
CLOUDS ARE THINNING AND SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME ADDITIONAL HEATING
AND WINDS WILL SWING AROUND TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH. EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
TONIGHT...A DRY AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WITH
PWATS AROUND 0.4-0.5 INCHES AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S. A
DEAMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL APPROACH
FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT AND BRING SOME POTENTIAL LIGHT
SHOWERS TO THE REGION DURING THE 06Z-12Z TIME FRAME. MOST OF THE
HREF MEMBERS INDICATE SOME REFLECTIVITY RETURNS MOVING INTO THE
FORECAST AREA AFTER 07Z-08Z BUT WITH SO MUCH LOW LEVEL DRY AIR
TO OVERCOME THINK IT WILL BE REALLY DIFFICULT TO OBSERVE
MEASURABLE RAIN THROUGH 12Z. THEREFORE, WILL KEEP THE FORECAST
DRY THROUGH 08Z THEN BRING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INTO THE CSRA AND
SOUTHERN MIDLANDS THROUGH 12Z. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL BE
LIMITED BY CLOUD COVER BUT THE THICKNESS OF THE CLOUDS MAY BE
THIN ENOUGH EARLY TO ALLOW FOR SOME EARLY COOLING WITH TEMPS
DROPPING QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET DUE TO THE DRY AIR IN PLACE.
EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S TO AROUND 50 DEGREES.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
WELL, GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED ITS DRYING TREND FROM YESTERDAY.
SYNOPTIC SETUP LOOKS SIMILAR TO WHAT WE'VE BEEN ADVERTISING FOR
A COUPLE OF DAYS. A DEEP TROUGH AXIS WILL BE SET UP ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND WESTERN CONUS, WITH A SHORTWAVE PUSHING INTO THE OH
VALLEY ON SATURDAY MORNING. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY DAMPEN
AS IT APPROACHES US. AT THE SURFACE, A LEFTOVER FRONT ALONG THE
GULF COAST WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHWARD TOWARDS US AND BRING
WITH IT A SLOW INCREASE IN MOISTURE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SOUTH. HOWEVER, THIS SLUG OF MOISTURE CONTINUES TO LOOK LESS AND
LESS IMPRESSIVE, AS DOES OVERALL FORCING FOR THIS EVENT. AS A
RESULT, ALL MODELS HAVE TRENDED MUCH DRIER, TO THE POINT THAT I
AM NOT EVEN CONFIDENT THAT THE MIDLANDS AND POINTS NORTHWARD
WILL SEE MORE THAN MINIMAL RAINFALL TOMORROW. WILL BE LOWERING
POPS QUITE A BIT EVERYWHERE. CAMS THIS MORNING ARE REALLY
INDICATING THE BEST CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS OCCURRING SATURDAY EVENING, BUT EVEN THEN THIS STUFF
WILL STRUGGLE. THE SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO THE POINT
THAT IT WON'T BE A FORMIDABLE FORCING MECHANISM, AND PWS > 1"
LIKELY WON'T MAKE IT PAST OUR SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES. MODEL
SOUNDINGS AT CAE INDICATE A LARGE DRY LAYER NEAR THE SURFACE, AS
WELL. ALL IN ALL, THIS IS A VERY UNIMPRESSIVE SYSTEM. WE MAY
NOT EVEN SEE DENSE CLOUDS COVER ALL DAY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
2/3RDS OF COUNTIES! HIGHS WILL LIKELY BE COOLEST ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTH, AND IT WOULDN'T SURPRISE ME IF OUR MIDDLE/NORTHERN
COUNTIES REACHED THE LOW-MID 70S UNDER LESSER CLOUD COVER.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY LOOKS AT LEAST INTERESTING AT THIS
POINT AS GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED TOWARDS A SECONDARY WAVE OF PRECIP
TRYING TO MAKE ITS WAY IN HERE. I AM JUST AS HESITANT ABOUT
THIS, AS WE'LL STILL BE FAIRLY DRY (PWS GENERALLY ~1.1" OR
LESS). AS A RESULT, POPS WILL REMAIN PRETTY LOW THROUGH THAT
PERIOD, WITH A MAX OF 25% HELD ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHERN AREAS.
THIS COULD END UP BEING OUR BEST CHANCE OF RAIN, THOUGH, WHICH
MAKES THIS SYSTEM LARGELY DISAPPOINTING IF YOU WANTED RAIN. LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 50S, AND HIGHS ON SUNDAY
GENERALLY SHOULD BE IN THE 70S WITH DECREASING CLOUDS THROUGH
THE DAY.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED DURING THIS PERIOD, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
GUIDANCE TRENDING TOWARDS A STRONG MID WEEK SURFACE HIGH.
PATTERN WILL GENERALLY REMAIN SIMILAR TO WHAT WE HAVE SEEN THE
PAST FEW DAYS, WITH A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH CENTERED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/EASTERN CONUS, WITH MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES TRAVERSING THAT
TROUGH. WE'LL SEE A GENERAL SURFACE TROUGH PRESENT OFF THE EAST
COAST MONDAY/TUESDAY. A LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ALONG THAT AS A SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY, BUT
WHETHER THAT BRINGS US RAIN OR NOT IS STILL UP IN THE AIR
AMONGST THE MODELS. THE LONGWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT
EASTWARD THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS A STRONGER NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE REINFORCES THE TROUGH AND KICKS IT TO THE EAST
COAST.
SENSIBLE WEATHER SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUIET THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
ONLY CHANCE OF RAIN LOOKS TO BE MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY AS THAT
LOW PRESSURE MOVES TO OUR EAST. ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES OF >0.1"
OF QPF ARE VERY LOW ON TUESDAY, BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH IN
THAT SOLUTION RIGHT NOW SO I'LL ELECT TO KEEP THE FORECAST THE
SAME FOR THE TIME BEING. BEYOND THAT, WEDNESDAY WILL SEE A DRY
AND STRONG COLD FRONT PUSH THROUGH. BEHIND IT, A STRONG SURFACE
HIGH WILL PUSH COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA FOR AT LEAST
THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY AND NEXT WEEKEND, THAT HIGH WILL SHIFT TO
OUR EAST AND MAY ALLOW FOR SOME GULF MOISTURE TO RETURN AND
BRING RAINFALL WITH IT. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S AND
LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S.
AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD.
GENERALLY JUST SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS PASSING OVERHEAD THROUGH
MIDNIGHT THEN SOME LOWERING OF THE CLOUD DECK AFTER 08Z TO
AROUND 10KFT AS INCREASING MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING DEAMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE. DO NOT
EXPECT VSBY RESTRICTIONS DUE TO DRY AIR IN PLACE AND CLOUD
COVER. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY VARIABLE THIS AFTERNOON BUT COULD
HAVE A PREVAILING WEST SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION AFTER 20Z UNTIL
SUNSET, THEN WINDS WILL GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM OVERNIGHT.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VISIBILITY AND CEILING RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS MORE MOISTURE MOVES INTO
THE AREA.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
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