306
FXUS62 KCAE 302339
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
739 PM EDT WED SEP 30 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
LOWERED TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR CAD DEVELOPING
ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA. AVIATION
DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 00Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. DRY CONDITIONS WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH FRIDAY.
- 2. INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONT
APPROACHING THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: DRY CONDITIONS WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS REMAINS TO THE WEST OF THE AREA AND WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK LEADING TO
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AS 500 MB HEIGHTS WILL RISE TO NEAR
1.5 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL BASED ON ENSEMBLE
MEANS. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO HIGHS NEARLY 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL, IN THE LOW 90S AS OCTOBER BEGINS UNSEASONABLE WARM. WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING OFFSHORE, LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE, ALTHOUGH FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A
LAYER OF SUBSTANTIAL DRY AIR IN PLACE THAT WILL PRECLUDE ANY
RAIN TODAY AND TOMORROW. WHILE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE BEGINS TO
INCREASE FRIDAY WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BEGINNING TO DEVELOP,
THERE WILL BE A SUBSTANTIAL PWAT GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA. WHILE
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM REMAINS POSSIBLE IN THE FAR
SOUTHERN AREA WHERE MOISTURE INCREASES FASTEST, MOST OF THE AREA
EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY FRIDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2: INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONT
APPROACHING THIS WEEKEND.
GUIDANCE APPEARS TO CONTINUE TO CONVERGE ON A GENERALLY SLOWER
SOLUTION WITH THE ARRIVAL AND PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT THROUGH
THE AREA THIS WEEKEND WITH LREF PWATS GREATER THAN 2 INCHES
SHOWING A 60-80% CHANCE SATURDAY NIGHT AND INCREASING INTO
SUNDAY. ONCE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY,
TEMPERATURES DROP TO MORE FALL-LIKE WITH LOWS IN THE 50S AND
HIGHS IN THE 70S. ALTHOUGH, TEMPERATURES ARE UNCERTAIN THIS
WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK AS MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS FAVORING COLD
AIR DAMMING DEVELOPING SATURDAY ESPECIALLY IN THE UPSTATE.
TEMPERATURES LOOK COOLER TO THE NORTHWEST, ALTHOUGH THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR A SUBSTANTIAL TEMPERATURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. WHILE FORCING WILL BE LIMITED,
ESPECIALLY EARLY, ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL LEAD TO DEVELOPING RAIN
OVER THE AREA WITH HIGHEST CHANCE FOR STORMS IN THE SOUTHEAST.
STRONGER FORCING LIKELY LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WHICH MAY LEAD
TO HEAVIER RAIN. LREF IS ALSO SHOWING AN INCREASE IN A SOAKING RAIN
POTENTIAL WITH NOW A 30-40% OF SEEING TOTALS OVER 2 INCHES
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. COLD AIR DAMMING LIKELY LINGERS INTO
SUNDAY AND WHILE BLENDED GUIDANCE FAVORS MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES, THERE STILL REMAINS THE POSSIBILITY THAT THEY ARE
TOO HIGH, ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHWEST. DRIER AIR LIKELY FILTERS
INTO THE AREA MONDAY AS THE FRONT IS PUSHED SOUTHEAST WITH A
DEEPENING TROUGH MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING. RESTRICTIONS IN
STRATUS/FOG APPEAR MORE LIKELY THURSDAY MORNING WITH INCREASING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
ANOTHER BEAUTIFUL DAY HAS COME AND GONE ACROSS THE MIDLANDS,
WITH FEW CLOUDS TO BE SEEN THROUGHOUT THE DAY. CLEAR SKIES ARE
PRESENT ACROSS THE AREA RIGHT NOW, WITH LOW-LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW FORECAST TO POSSIBLY CHANGE THAT BY DAYBREAK. MOISTURE IS
FORECAST TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT, COINCIDING WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS. GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY BULLISH ON SHOWING AN AREA OF
FOG AND LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING BETWEEN 09Z AND 12 ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAIN AND INTO CENTRAL SC AND GA. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
SHALLOW FOG AND STRATUS ACROSS THE SITES, WITH ALL SITES
FORECAST TO SEE LIFR CEILINGS FOR SOME PERIOD OF TIME TONIGHT.
AGS/OGB WILL PROBABLY SEE THE LOWEST VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS BUT
ITS POSSIBLE THAT ALL SITES SEE THESE. A RINSE AND REPEAT
FORECAST IS EXPECTED TOMORROW, WITH MORE CUMULUS IN THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
THIS WEEKEND MAY LEAD TO ADDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...NS
AVIATION...PL
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