268
FXUS62 KCAE 300535
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
135 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MINIMAL CHANGES TO KEY MESSAGES. AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED
FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
- 2. WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH DANGEROUS HEAT INDEX
VALUES POSSIBLE THIS WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND.
LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE OVERALL PATTERN TODAY AS THE
TROUGH GRADUALLY WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EAST, WITH HEIGHTS RISING
AHEAD OF THE RIDGE BUILDING INTO OUR AREA. BEFORE THE RIDGE
BECOMES FIRMLY ESTABLISHED, ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE, SUPPORTING DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION DURING
THE AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY SHOULD BE FAIRLY MINIMAL; HOWEVER, HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM ANY POP-UP STORMS
THAT DEVELOP, WITH THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT REMAINING LOW.
KEY MESSAGE 2: WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH DANGEROUS
HEAT INDEX VALUES POSSIBLE THIS WEEK.
RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BECOMES
ESTABLISHED OVER THE SOUTHEAST THIS WEEK. CONFIDENCE IS
INCREASING IN A RETURN TO HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS, KEEPING A
STRONG TASTE OF SUMMER IN PLACE INTO SEPTEMBER. EC ENSEMBLE
500-MB HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE FORECAST TO EXCEED THE 97TH
PERCENTILE MONDAY, RISING ABOVE THE 99TH PERCENTILE THROUGH
MIDWEEK. THE STRONG UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL PROMOTE SIGNIFICANT
SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE REGION, WHICH SHOULD GENERALLY SUPPRESS
CONVECTION. THE RESULT WILL BE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF WELL-AOVE-
NORMAL TEMPERATURES, SUPPORTED BY ENSEMBLE TEMPS AT THE
700/850/1000-MB LEVELS REACHING OR EXCEEDING THE 99TH
PERCENTILE. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S BY
MIDWEEK AND REMAIN THERE EACH DAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE
COMBINATION OF ANOMALOUS HEAT AND INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL RESULT IN HEAT INDICES REACHING 100-105 DEGREES, WITH SOME
LOCATIONS POTENTIALLY HIGHER.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
RESTRICTIONS ONCE AGAIN LIKELY TO FORM OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS.
MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE IS ONCE AGAIN SHOWING REDEVELOPMENT OF IFR
RESTRICTIONS OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THERE IS
ALSO A SMALL SET OF GUIDANCE SHOWING MORE VFR CONDITIONS
INSTEAD. BASED ON PERSISTENCE FROM PREVIOUS FEW MORNINGS, HAVE
LEANED MORE TOWARDS THE DEVELOPMENT OF IFR CEILING RESTRICTIONS,
ALONG WITH SOME PERIODS OF LOWER VISIBILITIES. THERE ARE ALREADY
SOME LOWER CEILINGS ACROSS THE MIDLANDS ASSOCIATED WITH A
DECAYING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT MOVED THROUGH. EVEN IF THOSE
SCATTER OUT, WE SHOULD SEE CEILINGS LOWER AROUND 09Z AT ALL
SITES. CROSSOVER TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 70S TO UPPER 60S WILL
FAVOR AT LEAST BRIEF, PATCHY FOG BUT MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD
COVER THROUGH THE NIGHT SHOULD HINDER WIDESPREAD FOG.
REGARDLESS, RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM IFR TO MVFR AROUND
15Z THEN IMPROVING TO VFR AFTER 17Z. AFTERNOON RAINFALL
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE LOWER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS, WITH THE
HIGHEST PROBABILITY POSSIBLY OVER THE FAR EASTERN MIDLANDS AND
THE COASTAL PLAIN. HAVE ONLY PLACED PROB30 IN OGB FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON, WITH ALL OTHER SITES EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED EARLY
NEXT WEEK, BUT BRIEF EARLY MORNING RESTRICTIONS STILL POSSIBLE.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ND
AVIATION...73
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