534
FXUS62 KCAE 070635
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
235 AM EDT TUE APR 7 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
FIRE DANGER STATEMENT ISSUED FOR TODAY DUE TO LOW RH AND BREEZY
WINDS. AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 06Z FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. INCREASED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH MID WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: INCREASED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH MID WEEK.
CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE IS MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING,
RIDGING INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN US. WINDS WILL LIKELY BE RELATIVELY
LIGHT EARLY BUT WITH AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT TODAY WITH AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT, EXPECT INCREASING WINDS AS WELL. WHILE WINDS
REMAIN A BIT MARGINAL FOR INCREASED FIRE DANGER, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
RELATIVE HUMIDITY DROPPING BELOW 30 PERCENT. AS A RESULT, HAVE
ISSUED A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT FOR TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, LEADING TO INCREASING
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-20 WHERE BLENDED
PROBABILITY OF MAX GUSTS GREATER THAN 30 MPH WEDNESDAY IS ABOVE
50 PERCENT. FIRE DANGER WILL CONTINUE TO BE ELEVATED WEDNESDAY
AND WILL NEED TO MONITOR MODEL TRENDS FOR THE POTENTIAL NEED FOR
A RED FLAG WARNING, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-20. AS HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS OFFSHORE THURSDAY, LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL LIKELY
LEAD TO A MOISTURE INCREASE, LIMITING FIRE CONCERNS, ALTHOUGH
SOMETIMES MODELS TEND TO BE A BIT TOO QUICK WITH MOISTURE RETURN
SO NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION OF SOME LINGERING FIRE DANGER INTO
THURSDAY.
OTHERWISE, NO IMPACTFUL WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
LITTLE TO NO CHANCES FOR RAIN AND TEMPERATURES RISING TO NEAR
AVERAGE BY THE END OF THE WEEK, THEN WELL ABOVE AVERAGE THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE....
NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE OVERALL FORECAST. SKIES TONIGHT FEATURE
SCT TO BKN CIRRIFORM CLOUDS WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
DECREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS ARE CURRENTLY
LIGHT AND VARIABLE BUT WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE AFTER DAYBREAK
WHEN THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION BREAKS. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS MAY
GUST TO AROUND 20 KNOTS THROUGH THE DAY, BEFORE DECREASING NEAR
THE END OF THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THE CHANCE OF RESTRICTIONS IS LOW
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...96
AVIATION...7
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page