214
FXUS62 KCAE 270617
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
217 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TRENDING DOWNWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THIS WEEKEND.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. DAILY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEK, WITH ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: DAILY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEK, WITH ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE STARTED TO WEAKEN AND DIMINISH
OVER THE REGION WITH CONDITIONS WINDING DOWN AS WE HEAD INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. A WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE AS MOST OF THE SOUTHEAST CONTINUES TO BE UNDER A DEEP
SOUTHERLY FLOW REGIME BETWEEN THE BERMUDA HIGH AND AND UPPER LOW
OVER THE MID-SOUTH. PWATS REMAIN ANOMALOUSLY HIGH, WITH CURRENT
MESOANALYSIS INDICATING ABOVE VALUES AT OR ABOVE 1.5 TO 2
INCHES. THIS MOISTURE PLUME WILL CONTINUE TO FEED INTO A
STATIONARY FRONT TO OUR NORTH.
THE PATTERN CHANGES A BIT STARTING TODAY WITH AN UPPER TROUGH
STRENGTHENING OVER THE EASTERN US WHICH WILL START TO WEAKEN THE
RIDGE JUST OFFSHORE, LEADING TO LOWER MOISTURE WITH MORE
WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE FA. EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING COULD
STILL HAVE THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO
MODERATE DESTABILIZATION REMAINING IN PLACE, HOWEVER, COVERAGE
WILL LIKELY BE MORE ISOLATED WHEN COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS.
WHILE THE SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED, DEEPER
CONVECTION COULD PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS DROPPING A QUICK INCH
OR TWO, AND ISOLATED MINOR FLOODING. SEASONABLY HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE AS A FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA THIS
WEEKEND LEADING TO MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. IT IS THEN EXPECTED
TO STALL IN THE VICINITY THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE WEEKEND,
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A WEAK SURFACE LOW TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONT. COOLER TEMPERATURES GENERALLY EXPECTED AS WELL, ALTHOUGH
THERE REMAINS SIGNIFICANT SPREAD IN BLENDED GUIDANCE OWING TO
UNCERTAINTY IN THE LOCATION OF THE FRONT. DRIER CONDITIONS MAY
BRIEFLY RETURN, BUT THERE IS NOT A SIGNAL FOR MORE ROBUST DRYING
UNTIL AT LEAST AFTER SUNDAY.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
CEILINGS WILL TREND DOWNWARD EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SHOWERS
TAPERING OFF.
LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING BUT ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THROUGH 12Z. ABUNDANT LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER ROUND OF CIG RESTRICTIONS
WITH IFR OR LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN MVFR
CEILINGS AT ALL SITES AFTER 09Z WITH LOWEST CIGS AROUND 12Z.
PATCHY FOG IS ALSO EXPECTED BUT SHOULD BE A SECONDARY IMPACT TO
AVIATION.
CEILINGS SHOULD SLOWLY IMPROVE FROM 12Z TO 15Z, WITH VFR
RETURNING BY 18Z ALONG WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS FROM 5-8 KT.
ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON
BUT OVERALL COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE LOWER THAN THE PAST FEW
DAYS. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE REMAINS AT OGB WHICH WILL BE CLOSER TO
THE SEA BREEZE AND THE GREATER PROJECTED ACTIVITY. STORMS SHOULD
LINGER INTO THE EVENING. WITH CONTINUED MOISTURE OVER THE
REGION, EARLY MORNING FOG AND/OR STRATUS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ON
THURSDAY MORNING.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MORNING FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE EACH
DAY THIS WEEK. SCATTERED, DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION EXPECTED
THROUGH THURSDAY UNTIL A FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION
SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASING RAIN CHANCES.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ND
AVIATION...CJR
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