458
FXUS62 KCAE 251104
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
604 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2025
SYNOPSIS
WARM WEATHER CONTINUES WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY. A VERY DRY AND COLD AIR MASS MOVES IN BEHIND THE
FRONT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THANKSGIVING WEEK. TEMPERATURES
RETURN TO SEASONAL VALUES LATE IN THE WEEKEND BUT THE CHANCE OF
RAIN ALSO RETURNS.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST TODAY AND TONIGHT
A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OVER THE SOUTHEAST TODAY LIFTING FROM
WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THIS
MORNING. A BROADER TROUGH WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE REGION THROUGH
THE NEAR TERM AND PROMOTE MOIST, SW FLOW. AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT STRENGTHENS THROUGH THE DAY WE WILL SEE WINDS GUST TO
AROUND 20 MPH. WARM ADVECTION WILL PUSH HIGHS INTO THE MID 70S
TO LOW 80S DESPITE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
THROUGH THE DAY, THE CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE
AREA REMAINS LOW. WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY GENERALLY STAYING TO OUR
WEST AND NORTH, THERE IS LITTLE SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION IN THE
WEAKLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE FOR AREAS
IN OR NEAR THE UPSTATE WHICH WILL BE CLOSER TO THE INFLUENCE OF
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE
WESTERN MIDLANDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE CHANCE FOR
WIDESPREAD RAIN OVER THE AREA AS A WHOLE IS HIGHER AFTER SUNSET.
AS UPSTREAM CONVECTION ADVANCES EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW LINGERING THUNDERSTORMS MAY ENTER THE
FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST IN THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING.
THE MOIST AIR MASS COULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT ALTHOUGH CAMS GENERALLY SHOW DIMINISHING ACTIVITY
AFTER THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. WEAK LAPSE RATES WILL LIMIT
THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER. TEMPERATURES DON'T FALL TOO MUCH
DUE TO CLOUDS AND WAA WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- CONTINUED RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORM FIRST HALF OF
WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF COLD FRONT.
- BREEZY WINDS AND WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUE WEDNESDAY BEFORE
COLD/DRY AIR IS USHERED IN BEHIND THE FRONT INTO THURSDAY.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT: THE BASE OF THE DEEP UPPER
TROUGH BEGINS TO PIVOT IN WEDNESDAY, USHERING IN A SURFACE COLD
FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE FA BY THE EVENING HOURS.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT, DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED WITH
PWAT'S LIKELY REACHING NEAR 1.50" AS DECENT MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
IS SEEN ALONG THE FRONT DURING THE MORNING HOURS. THIS SHOULD
LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WEDNESDAY MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON WHERE A COUPLE EMBEDDED STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT
WITH MUCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 300-700 J/KG AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
THIS PLUME OF MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY MOVE TOWARD THE
COAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, BRINGING GRADUAL CLEARING AND
TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE MID 70S. AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH,
A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT IS SEEN IN MODEL GUIDANCE WITH
25-30 KTS OF FLOW AT 850MB, THUS BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON, CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING AS
CAA PUSHES IN AS WELL BEHIND THE FRONT. GUSTS UP TO 20-25 MPH
ARE EXPECTED, POSSIBLY NEARING LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA.
OVERNIGHT, FLOW TURNS MORE NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT AND
WEAK CAA BEGINS TO PUSH IN, DROPPING LOWS INTO THE MID TO UPPER
30S.
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO
SLOWLY RIDGE INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY WITH
TROUGHING ALOFT REMAINING IN PLACE. MUCH COLDER AND DRIER AIR
BEGINS TO PUSH IN BEHIND THE WEDNESDAY'S FRONT WHERE A
COMBINATION OF STRONG CAA AND SOME DOWNSLOPING FLOW DROPS
DEWPOINTS INTO THE 20'S THURSDAY AFTERNOON, RAPIDLY FALLING FROM
DEWPOINTS IN THE 50'S JUST 24 HOURS PRIOR ON WEDNESDAY. STRONG
CAA SHOULD ALSO BRING HIGH TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL, IN THE MID
TO UPPER 50S. OVERNIGHT, SOLID RADIATIONAL COOLING AND
CONTINUED CAA SHOULD BRING THE FIRST OF MULTIPLE NIGHTS WITH
SUB-FREEZING OVERNIGHT LOWS WHERE THEY ARE EXPECTED TO BOTTOM
OUT IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- COLD AND VERY DRY AIR LIKELY REMAINS IN PLACE INTO THE
WEEKEND.
- TEMPERATURES MODERATE SOME LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH POSSIBLE RAIN CHANCES MOVING IN.
A CONTINUED VERY COLD AND DRY AIRMASS LOOKS REMAIN IN PLACE TO
ROUND OUT THE WEEK AND START THE WEEKEND, WHICH IS WELL
SUPPORTED IN GLOBAL GUIDANCE AT THIS TIME. THE SURFACE HIGH IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE OVERHEAD FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY AS UPPER
LEVEL HEIGHTS LOOK TO LEVEL OFF AND BECOME MORE ZONAL. THIS
SHOULD BRING CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WHERE HIGHS MAY BARELY BREAK 50F BOTH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. FRIDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE THE CHILLIEST WITH NEAR IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS BUT SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD ALSO
BE ON THE COLDER SIDE.
ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE
FAIRLY SPREAD OUT TO END THE PERIOD BUT THE GENERAL UPPER LEVEL
TREND APPEARS TO BE ANOTHER DEEP TROUGH DIGS INTO THE SOUTHWEST
CONUS, LEADING TO UPPER FLOW OVER THE FA THAT BECOMES
INCREASINGLY SOUTHWESTERLY WITH MOISTURE RETURNING TO THE AREA
ALONG WITH NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. OVERALL, THIS PATTERN IS
FAVORABLE FOR RETURNING RAIN CHANCES TO END THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE OF ANY RAIN IS LOW
AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS FAVORED THROUGH TONIGHT.
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN PULL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA
THROUGH THE MORNING. UNLIKE YESTERDAY, WE DO NOT EXPECT FOG
DEVELOPMENT DUE TO A 20 TO 25 KT LLJ WHICH WILL HELP KEEP THE
LOW-LEVELS MIXED. THERE MAY BE BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS WHICH DEVELOP
PRIOR TO 15Z GIVEN THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE
AREA. WINDS WILL INCREASE AFTER SUNRISE AND SHIFT FROM SE TO SW
WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE INTO THE AFTERNOON.
RAIN CHANCES AT THE TERMINALS ARE LOW THROUGH THE 24 HOUR
FORECAST PERIOD. THE STRONGER SUPPORT FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
WILL LIFT WELL NORTH OF THE TAF SITES. THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR
RAIN AT THE TERMINALS WILL BE AROUND OR AFTER 06Z WHEN UPSTREAM
CONVECTION COULD PUSH INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THERE WILL BE
LITTLE SUPPORT FOR CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT AND CAMS
GENERALLY SHOW DIMINISHING CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AFTER SUNSET. SO
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN ANY IMPACTS FROM CONVECTION AT THE
TERMINALS TONIGHT.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THE NEXT CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE WEDNESDAY AS A FRONT AND DEEP MOISTURE
MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
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