104  
FXUS62 KCAE 102342  
AFDCAE  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC  
742 PM EDT THU JUL 10 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS  
 
UPPER TROUGH PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THIS  
TROUGH IS REPLACED BY RIDGING THIS WEEKEND, ALLOWING TEMPERATURES  
TO SLOWLY RISE WITH TYPICAL SUMMERTIME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  
THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK, LEADING TO COOLER TEMPERATURES  
AND HIGHER RAIN CHANCES ONCE AGAIN DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.  
 
 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/  
 
KEY MESSAGE(S):  
 
- WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND  
EVENING WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE.  
 
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OFF TO THE EAST  
THIS EVENING, WITH SOME LIGHT RAINFALL STILL POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT  
AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. WINDS TURNING LIGHT AND  
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE STILL ACROSS THE  
REGION, CAN NOT RULE OUT LOWER STRATUS FORMATION, AND EVEN SOME  
PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT AND TOWARDS MORNING. OVERNIGHT LOWS  
SHOULD STILL BE ON TRACK TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER 70S FOR MANY  
AREAS, WHICH IS CLOSE TO WHERE THE CURRENT RAIN COOLED AIRMASS  
IS CURRENTLY SITTING AT FOR MANY SITES.  
 
 
   
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/  
 
KEY MESSAGE(S):  
 
- SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED EACH  
DAY.  
- TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  
 
THE UPPER TROUGH THAT HAS BROUGHT MORE WIDESPREAD  
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BEGIN ITS EXIT FRIDAY AS 500MB HEIGHTS  
SLOWLY RISE THROUGH THE DAY AND MOISTURE DECREASES SOME WITH  
MEAN HREF PWAT'S BEING BETWEEN 1.8-2.0" AS FLOW TURNS A BIT MORE  
WESTERLY. ONE LAST PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY BRINGS ANOTHER  
SHOT AT SCATTERED STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING  
FRIDAY, THOUGH THE RECENT 12Z HREF MEAN SOLUTION AND ITS MEMBERS  
DEPICT COVERAGE BEING LESS THAN HAS BEEN SEEN THE PAST COUPLE  
DAYS, LIKELY DUE TO DECREASING MOISTURE AND HEIGHTS THAT WILL BE  
SLOWLY RISING. STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP HOWEVER, WILL BRING  
SIMILAR RISKS TO THOSE FROM THE PREVIOUS DAYS AS AMPLE  
INSTABILITY IS SHOWN IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS (MLCAPE OF 1500-2000  
J/KG). WITH HIGH MOISTURE LINGERING ABOVE A DECENTLY MIXED  
BOUNDARY LAYER, SOME GUSTY DOWNBURST WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN  
THE STRONGEST STORMS AS THEY COLLAPSE. DUE TO THIS POTENTIAL,  
THE WHOLE CWA IS IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER FRIDAY  
(LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5). LUCKILY THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH  
BRINGS INCREASING FLOW ALOFT AND THUS WHILE STORMS IN THIS PULSE  
ENVIRONMENT WILL STILL HAVE SLOWER MOTIONS, THEY WILL AT LEAST  
HAVE SOME STEERING FLOW TO ALLOW THEM TO TRANSLATE. LONG/SKINNY  
CAPE PROFILES OVER DEEP MOISTURE WILL BRING ANOTHER DAY WITH A  
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE SPOTS OF FLASH  
FLOODING, ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS AND A SWATH  
FROM BURKE COUNTY GA TOWARD BARNWELL, ORANGEBURG, AIKEN, AND  
LEXINGTON COUNTIES, WHERE INCREASED SOIL MOISTURES WILL MAKE  
THESE AREAS A BIT MORE SENSITIVE TO HEAVY RAIN.  
 
THIS WEEKEND, UPPER TROUGHING IS REPLACED WITH RIDGING AND  
MOISTURE THAT RETURNS TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS. THE BUILDING OF  
RIDGING WILL ALLOW HOT/MUGGY CONDITIONS TO MOVE BACK INTO THE  
REGION AS HEAT INDICES PEAKING AROUND 100-105 WILL BE POSSIBLE,  
MAINLY SUNDAY. MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONVECTION IS EXPECTED  
EACH DAY AS POP'S BECOME MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED EACH DAY.  
 
 
   
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/  
 
KEY MESSAGE(S):  
 
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WITH HEAT INDICES PEAKING  
BETWEEN BETWEEN 100-105.  
- UPPER RIDGING BREAKS DOWN INTO THE MIDWEEK, BRINGING NEAR  
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND INCREASE RAIN CHANCES.  
 
THE EC ENSEMBLE AND GEFS MEAN 500 MB ANOMALY SOLUTION ARE IN  
DECENT AGREEMENT WITH RIDGING REMAINING OVERHEAD MONDAY,  
BRINGING ANOTHER DAY WITH HEAT INDICES THAT TOP OUT NEAR 105 AND  
CLIMATOLOGICAL PRECIP CHANCES. THIS RIDGING SLOWLY BREAKS DOWN  
DURING THE MIDWEEK AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE  
BAHAMAS, AIDING IN TURNING LOW LEVEL FLOW MORE SOUTHEASTERLY TO  
EASTERLY AND BRINGING PWAT'S NEAR 120% OF NORMAL AND INCREASING  
POP'S. INCREASED POP'S LOOK TO KEEP TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO  
NORMAL AS WELL INTO THE MID WEEK.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/  
 
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT TAF  
PERIOD, WITH THUNDERSTORMS GIVING WAY TO SHOWERS, THEN  
EVENTUALLY THE SHOWERS AND AND LOW-LEVEL STRATUS FORMS.  
 
SHOWER AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE  
AREA THROUGH 03Z, WITH RESTRICTIONS MOSTLY IN VISIBILITY POSSIBLE  
IN THE STRONGER ACTIVITY. MOST SHOWERS SHOULD BE ENDING AROUND  
03Z AT ALL SITES, THEN A PERIOD OF VFR SHOULD OCCUR THROUGH 07Z.  
LATER TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE  
AREA, EXPECT ADDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS IN BOTH CEILINGS AND  
VISIBILITIES TOWARD DAYBREAK, PARTICULARLY AT LOCATIONS WHICH  
RECEIVE HEAVIER RAINFALL THE PAST 12 HOURS OR SO. GUIDANCE IS  
KEYING IN ON CAE/CUB/OGB IN PARTICULAR. A RETURN TO VFR THEN  
EXPECTED BY 15Z AT ALL TAF LOCATIONS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL  
BECOME POSSIBLE AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON.  
 
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF  
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEK WITH THE  
POTENTIAL FOR PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS.  
 
 
   
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
SC...NONE.  
GA...NONE.  
 
 
 
 
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