294
FXUS62 KCAE 291041
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
641 AM EDT FRI SEP 29 2023
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN CLOUDS CLEARING FRIDAY WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
WITH STEADY, SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
THE SYNOPTIC SITUATION WILL BE CHANGING TODAY AS THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE SWINGING THROUGH THE EASTERN US AND MOVING
OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
IN CONTROL OF THE REGION AS DRIER AIR WILL BE OVERTAKING THE LOW
LEVELS. THIS WILL ALLOW THE CLOUDS TO MIX OUT THROUGH LATE THIS
MORNING WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WITH THE TROUGH MOVING EAST AN UPPER HEIGHTS RISING A
BIT ALONG WITH THE HEATING HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER GENERALLY IN THE LOW 80S. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL
BE CROSSING THE REGION TONIGHT PREVENTING RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS FROM BECOMING OPTIMAL AND UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL
CONTINUE RISING AS WELL. THIS COMBINATION WILL YIELD OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
A PERSISTENT NE FLOW REGIME WILL KEEP DRY AIR IN PLACE OVER THE
FORECAST AREA SATURDAY. EXPECT A RAIN FREE DAY DUE TO THE DRY
AIRMASS. 300 MB MOISTURE ADVECTION SHOULD LEAD TO CIRRUS AND
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES DURING THE DAY. THIS MAY KEEP
TEMPERATURES DOWN SOME COMPARED TO WHAT THEY WOULD BE OTHERWISE.
THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE MAV AND MET MOS WHICH HAVE HIGHER
CLOUD COVERAGE AND SLIGHTLY LOWER HIGHS THAN THE ECS MOS. EXPECT
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S WITH LOWS OVERNIGHT IN THE UPPER
50S TO LOW 60S.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
A PERSISTENT SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD: RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN US WITH A UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING OFFSHORE. STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTHEAST AND RIDGING INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL BRING
DRY AIR OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. MEAN PWAT
VALUES FROM THE GEFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES ARE BETWEEN 0.75 TO 1
INCHES FROM SUNDAY TO WEDNESDAY, INCREASING TO AROUND 1 INCH ON
THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE A CONTINUED RAIN FREE FORECAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE PRETTY MUCH STEADY THROUGH THE LONG TERM
WITH HIGHS GENERALLY EXPECTED IN THE LOW 80S OR AROUND 80
DEGREES AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING BECOMES FAVORED ACROSS THE CENTRAL US LATE WEEK, MORE
SO IN THE GEFS THAN THE ECMWF. THIS PATTERN WOULD LEAD TO
INCREASING MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE SOUTHEAST AND A RETURN OF
RAIN CHANCES AT THE VERY END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
CIG RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE THROUGH MID MORNING THEN VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
STRATUS REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA WITH MOST TERMINALS CURRENTLY
VFR HOWEVER MVFR CIGS ARE NEAR ALL TERMINALS. WITH SUNRISE AND
ONSET OF MIXING EXPECT CIGS TO BEGIN CLEARING OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE HOURS THEN CLOUDS QUICKLY DIMINISH AS DRIER AIR ALOFT
MIXES DOWN. THIS WILL RETURN ALL SITES TO VFR BY 16Z AND REMAIN
SO THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE
REGION. WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY AT 8 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THIS
EVENING THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION
EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page