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FXUS62 KCAE 071043
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
643 AM EDT WED OCT 7 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED DISCUSSION FOR A FEW CHANGES DUE TO TS ISAIAS. PRIMARILY
HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL RAINFALL THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND.
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 12Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. A WETTER PATTERN DEVELOPS INTO THE WEEKEND WITH SOME
TROPICAL CONNECTIONS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: A WETTER PATTERN DEVELOPS INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
SOME TROPICAL CONNECTIONS.
GOING INTO THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
THE BIGGEST ISSUE IS GOING TO REVOLVE AROUND THE RETURN OF
RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION. RAIN CHANCES ARE GOING TO INCREASE
AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND, MAINLY DUE TO AN INCREASE IN DEEPER
MOISTURE COMING BOTH FROM THE ATLANTIC AND GULF. THIS WILL BE
FUELED BY THE RECENTLY UPGRADED TROPICAL STORM ISAIAS, WHICH
WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND STRENGTHEN IN THE WESTERN GULF.
GUIDANCE THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT WITH
THIS SYSTEM CONTINUING TO STRENGTHEN AND EVENTUALLY TRACK
TOWARDS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION LATER THIS WEEK. THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS THIS SYSTEM GENERALLY FOLLOWING
THAT PATTERN AND TRACK. ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK, EAST OF
THE TROPICAL SYSTEM, DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE PULLED NORTHWARD
AND INLAND ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF COAST REGION LATE THIS WEEK.
MEANWHILE, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WILL BE BRINGING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE WESTWARD AND
INLAND ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.
THE DETERMINISTIC AND EVEN SOME OF THE AI MODELS, DIFFER IN THE
TIMING AND TRACK OF THE TROPICAL SYSTEM, BUT IN REGARDS TO THE
MOISTURE INCREASE INTO THE WEEKEND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA,
THAT APPEARS TO BE OF A MUCH HIGHER CONFIDENCE. WPC LEANED MORE
TOWARDS A BLEND OF THE THE AI GUIDANCE TIMING WITH THE PRECIP,
WHICH BRINGS RAINFALL IN EARLIER THAN SOME OF THE DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE RUNS. THIS WOULD BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR IMPACTFUL
HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND, AND DUE TO THIS WPC
HAS A MARGINAL RISK FOR ERO FOR MUCH OF THE FA FOR SATURDAY,
WITH SLIGHT RISK AREAS BOTH OFF TO THE WEST AND EAST OF OUR FA.
WITH ALL THAT BEING SAID, THIS EVENT IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS OUT,
AND THE TRACK OF THIS TROPICAL SYSTEM IS STILL BEING HASHED OUT
BY NHC. OBVIOUSLY ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO EITHER THE
INTENSITY OR THE TRACK OF THE EVENTUAL STORM, COULD BRING SOME
CHANGES TO THE RAINFALL FORECAST, HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL, AND
EVEN THE WINDS, SO IT IS BEST TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS
SYSTEM AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE GULF.
AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
FOR THE TIME BEING, DRY AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA,
KEEPING VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF LOCATIONS. SOME THIN CIRRUS
WILL BE SEEN CLOSER TO THE COASTAL PLAIN TODAY, BUT FOR OUR TAF
LOCATIONS, FEW TO SCATTERED CIRRUS WILL BE THE DOMINANT CLOUDS
WINDS THROUGH THE DAY WILL BE MORE NORTHEASTERLY AROUND 5 KTS,
THEN BECOMING LIGHT TO CALM AGAIN TONIGHT.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO
LATE WEEK WITH A DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE. AS MOISTURE INCREASES
BY THE WEEKEND, RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH INCREASING CLOUD
COVER AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...73
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