875
FXUS62 KCAE 010525
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
125 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS INCREASED FOR THIS AFTERNOON,
ESPECIALLY IN THE CSRA. A STRONGER STORM OR TWO ARE POSSIBLE
WITH THIS ACTIVITY. AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 06Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. RAIN AND STORM CHANCES INCREASE FOR THIS WEEKEND WITH A
MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN RETURNING NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
- 1. RAIN AND STORM CHANCES INCREASE FOR THIS WEEKEND WITH A
MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN RETURNING NEXT WEEK.
AN UPPER TROUGH AND EMBEDDED CLOSED LOW OVER THE MIDWEST ALONG
WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY MOVE
TOWARD THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES, IT IS FORECAST TO SLOW DOWN AS FLOW ALOFT BECOMES
MORE PARALLEL TO THE FRONT, MAKING IT HARDER FOR IT TO PUSH
EASTWARD. AS THEY DO, DEEPER MOISTURE INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY,
ESPECIALLY TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS PWATS ARE FORECAST TO TOP THE
2" MARK. IN ADDITION TO THE INCREASED MOISTURE, A SHORTWAVE AND
PREFRONTAL TROUGH ARE FORECAST TO MOVE TOWARD THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING, TRIGGERING A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
MOVING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR STORMS LOOKS
TO BE IN THE CSRA IN THE AFTERNOON BEFORE PUSHING INTO THE
WESTERN AND NORTHERN MIDLANDS OVERNIGHT. WHILE THE INSTABILITY
ISN'T ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE, IT IS SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE SOME
STRONGER STORMS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW AN INVERTED V
SIGNATURE, INDICATING GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE. SOME OF THE HI-
RES GUIDANCE HAS ALSO SUGGESTED A LINE OF STORMS COULD DEVELOP
AND MOVE THROUGH THE CSRA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON, WHICH WILL NEED
TO BE WATCHED.WITH PWATS BEING OVER 2", LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS INITIAL ROUND.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA IS FORECAST TO EJECT
NORTHEASTWARD, BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR
SUNDAY. AS OF NOW, THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE
IN THE LOWER CSRA/EASTERN MIDLANDS AS THE SHORTWAVE IS
ANTICIPATED TO MOVE NEAR THE COAST. SIMILAR TO TODAY, LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE FOR SUNDAY DUE TO THE HIGH PWAT VALUES
REMAINING IN PLACE. A FEW STRONGER STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN,
WITH GUSTY WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS
THAT DEVELOP.
AFTER THE WEEKEND, MORE TYPICAL DIURNALLY DRIVEN ACTIVITY IS
ANTICIPATED THROUGH MID-WEEK AS RESIDUAL MOISTURE HANGS AROUND
THE AREA.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WITH INTERMITTENT MVFR CIGS THROUGH 14Z THEN MORE
RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT WITH
CONVECTION.
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE SLOWLY THIS MORNING WITH
SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND THIS HAS RESULTED IN SOME
PATCHY MVFR CIGS AROUND COLUMBIA ALREADY. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH DAWN BUT SREF HIGHLIGHTS INCREASING CHANCES
OF RESTRICTIONS 08Z-12Z TIME FRAME AND WITH SOME INTERMITTENT
CIGS ALREADY THINK A TEMPO GROUP IS WARRANTED. SIGNIFICANT
MOISTURE INCREASE AFTER 21Z AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND PREFRONTAL
TROUGH SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, SO CONTINUING THE PROB30 GROUP 20Z-02Z.
INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN RESTRICTIONS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR CIGS
EXPECTED AND LINGERING SHOWERS. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT FROM THE
SOUTHEAST INCREASING TO AROUND 6 TO 7 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AND
POSSIBLY MORE SOUTHERLY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RAIN AND RESTRICTIONS BECOME
INCREASINGLY LIKELY LATER THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...29
AVIATION...23
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