889
FXUS62 KCAE 281035
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
635 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.
MINIMAL CHANGE TO THE FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK TODAY. THERE IS A
SMALL CHANCE TEMPERATURES TONIGHT NEAR THE MID 30S IN THE PEE
DEE, BUT FROST HEADLINES ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THE MOMENT.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR CRITICAL FIRE
CONDITIONS TODAY.
- 2. TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE MID WEEK WITH SLIGHT CHANCES
FOR RAIN ENTERING THE FORECAST.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR CRITICAL
FIRE CONDITIONS TODAY.
AT THE TIME OF WRITING THIS, THE COLD FRONT IS WORKING THROUGH
THE FA FROM THE NORTHWEST, SEEN FROM THE SHARP WIND SHIFT TOWARD
THE NORTH AND THEN NORTHEAST BEHIND IT WITH GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH
AS STRONG CAA PUSHES IN. AS EXPECTED, DEW POINTS HAVE NOT BEEN
QUICK TO FALL, BUT VALUES TOWARD THE MID 30S ARE ALREADY SEEN
CREEPING INTO NORTH CENTRAL NC. STRONG CAA AND A TIGHTENING
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS MORNING AS
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS LIKELY GUST TO 25-30 MPH WHERE ISOLATED
GUSTS TO 35 MPH CANNOT BE RULED OUT. AFTER DAYBREAK, THE PUSH OF
ROBUST DRY AIR IS EXPECTED WITH DEW POINTS QUICKLY FALLING INTO
THE 20S THROUGH THE MORNING AND FINALLY TOWARD THE UPPER TEENS
BY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD BRING RH VALUES THAT FALL TOWARD
15-20% BY THIS AFTERNOON. AS HAS BEEN MESSAGED IN EARLIER
DISCUSSIONS, SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN
THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH THE LOWEST RH
VALUES COMING DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. STILL, A SUSTAINED
PERIOD OF 25+ MPH WINDS AND RH LESS 25% IS EXPECTED STARTING BY
THE LATE MORNING, CONTINUING THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
BRING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FA, WHERE A
RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT STARTING AT 8 AM THIS
MORNING, CONTINUING UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING. WINDS
SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKEN TONIGHT AND BECOME MORE EASTERLY TO
SOUTHEASTERLY, ALLOWING SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE TO MOVE IN, BUT
RECOVERY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.
AS A REMINDER, IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE RED FLAG WARNING, SC AND
GA HAVE ISSUED BURN BAN NOTICES THAT ARE IN EFFECT UNTIL
FURTHER NOTICE.
KEY MESSAGE 2: TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE MID WEEK WITH SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR RAIN ENTERING THE FORECAST.
TEMPERATURES BECOME CLOSER TO NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TODAY AND SUNDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS A ROBUST CANADIAN
SURFACE HIGH BEGINS MOVING INTO THE REGION. ONE THING WORTH
NOTING IS, DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS COULD BE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT TOWARD THE PEE DEE ESPECIALLY AND THIS WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S FOR MUCH OF THE
FA, BUT PARTS OF THE PEE DEE COULD NEAR 33-37F. WITH DEW POINTS
LIKELY STILL IN THE LOW TO MID 20S TONIGHT, THIS MAKES FROST
FORMATION FAIRLY UNLIKELY, BUT TRENDS WITH TEMPERATURES AND
MOISTURE RETURN WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED IN CASE A SMALL
FROST ADVISORY IS NEEDED.
HEADING INTO THE WEEK, A FAMILIAR PATTERN TAKES SHAPE AS UPPER
RIDGING NEAR THE NAEFS 90TH PERCENTILE MOVES IN WITH THE SURFACE
HIGH GRADUALLY SHIFTING OFF SHORE. THIS SHOULD BRING A RETURN
TO SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND TEMPERATURES
THAT WARM BACK ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH AT LEAST THE MID WEEK.
GLOBAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE INDICATE THAT AS THE FA
FINDS ITSELF ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY ON THE SURFACE HIGH AND
UPPER RIDGE BY LATE TUESDAY, MOISTURE MAKES A RETURN TO THE AREA
WITH GEFS AND EC ENSEMBLE PWAT'S REACHING ABOVE 170% BY
WEDNESDAY. INCREASING MOISTURE ALONG WITH A POTENTIAL FRONT
NEARING THE SOUTHEAST SOMETIME IN THE MID TO LATE WEEK COULD
BRING BACK RAIN CHANCES TO THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
A COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING, WITH WINDS NOW OUT OF THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT ALL
TERMINALS. SUSTAINED WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL GENERALLY BE
BETWEEN 10-15 KNOTS, AND WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS, THROUGHOUT
MUCH OF THE DAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOME LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE EVENING AS LOW-LEVELS DECOUPLE SLIGHTLY. WINDS TURN
MORE NORTHEAST TO EAST AFTER SUNSET, WITH SPEEDS BECOMING
LIGHTER AND LESS THAN 5 KNOTS AFTER 03Z AT ALL SITES. AS FOR
CLOUD COVER, THERE IS STILL SOME MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND STRATO-
CU BEHIND THE FRONT BEING SHOWN ON SATELLITE. CEILING WILL
REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO SCATTER
OUT LATE THIS MORNING, WITH MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY
THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS RAIN CHANCES RAMP UP BY LATE WEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR SCZ016-
018-020>022-025>031-035-037-038-041-115-116-135>137.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ016-018-
020>022-025>031-035-037-038-041-115-116-135>137.
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR GAZ040-
063>065-077.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GAZ040-
063>065-077.
DISCUSSION...DH
AVIATION...CAL
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