349
FXUS62 KCAE 291019
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
619 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. DRIER CONDITIONS MOVE IN TOMORROW AND FRIDAY BEFORE RAIN
CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN THIS WEEKEND AND PERSIST THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
- 1. DRIER CONDITIONS MOVE IN TOMORROW AND FRIDAY BEFORE RAIN
CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN THIS WEEKEND AND PERSIST THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
WHATEVER IS LEFT OF THE MEAGER CONVECTION FROM EARLIER THIS
EVENING HAS LARGELY DIMINISHED ACROSS THE AREA. A FAMILIAR
FORECAST FEATURING DRY CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW AS DEEP TROUGHING
CONTINUES TO ESTABLISH ITSELF IN THE EASTERN CONUS. A COLD FRONT
IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY PUSH THROUGH THE AREA TODAY, WITH MUCH
DRIER AIR THAN WE HAVE SEEN IN WEEKS PUSHING IN FOR THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. WHILE AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR NORMAL
DURING THIS PERIOD, AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE LOW
60S BOTH DAYS WILL RESULT IN IT FEELING QUITE NICE OUTSIDE! FOR
THOSE HOPING FOR A BETTER SETUP FOR RAIN, THERE IS HOPE ON THE
HORIZON. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A FAVORABLE SETUP BEGINNING
SATURDAY AND LASTING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR DAILY
SHOWERS/STORMS. THE DETAILS OF THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN ARE SOMEWHAT
UNCERTAIN BUT IN GENERAL, THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO RETROGRADE
WESTWARD, WITH THE AXIS SETTLING SOMEWHERE FROM SOUTHEASTERN
CANADA THROUGH THE SOUTHERN MS VALLEY. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO RESULT IN PWS RISING BACK TO NEAR OR ABOVE 2" FOR
MUCH OF THIS PERIOD. THE PERSISTENT TROUGHING TO OUR WEST, SHOWN
BY THE PREPONDERANCE OF GUIDANCE IN VARYING DEGREES, SHOULD
YIELD DAILY SHORTWAVES IN A MOISTURE RICH ENVIRONMENT AND HELP
SPARK SHOWERS/STORMS. THIS IS UNLIKELY TO KNOCK OUT OUR DROUGHT
BY ANY STRETCH; HOWEVER, THE SETUP IS QUITE GOOD COMPARED TO THE
POSITIONING OF THE TROUGH OVER THE PAST WEEK. THE DIFFERENCES
IN GUIDANCE RESULT FROM SOME SOLUTIONS FAVORING A FULL, BLOWN
CUTOFF LOW SETTLING IN THE MID-MS VALLEY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK,
WHILE SOME ARE MORE BROAD WITH THE PERSISTENT TROUGHING. BOTH
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN DAILY SHOWER/STORMS, THOUGH.
AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
LIGHT WEST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST THIS MORNING AS A
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. EXPECT DRY AIR TO LIMIT
FOG/STRATUS CONCERNS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH JUST SCT CUMULUS
THIS AFTERNOON. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS PICK UP TO AROUND 5 TO 8
KNOTS AFTER 15Z. CONVECTION UNLIKELY TODAY GIVEN THE DRY AIR
MASS OVER THE REGION.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RAIN AND RESTRICTIONS BECOME
INCREASINGLY LIKELY THIS WEEKEND.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...PL
AVIATION...CJR
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