604
FXUS62 KCAE 162359
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
759 PM EDT THU APR 16 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 00Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. NEAR-RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES, ALONG WITH DRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS, CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.
- 2. A COLD FRONT THIS WEEKEND BRINGS INCREASED FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS AND LIMITED PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE AREA.
- 3. REFRESHINGLY COOLER BUT VERY DRY START TO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: NEAR-RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES, ALONG WITH DRY
WEATHER CONDITIONS, CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.
THE LATEST FORECAST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO REMAIN ON THE SAME
TRACK WITH PROLONGED DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED AS A PROMINENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND
SUBTROPICAL SURFACE HIGH REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH SATURDAY.
LITTLE DAY-TO-DAY CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH
TEMPERATURES CONSISTENTLY RISING INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.
THESE VALUES WOULD BE ON THE ORDER OF 10-15 DEGREES OR MORE
ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMAL. DAILY RECORDS MAY BE APPROACHED,
TIED, OR BROKEN PARTICULARLY TOMORROW AND SATURDAY WHEN HIGHS
ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 90S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA. DESPITE THE DOWNWARD TREND IN FORECAST HIGHS, TEMPS ON
WEDNESDAY WERE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE GUIDANCE, SO DEPENDING ON
HOW THIS TREND PLAYS OUT, THE APRIL MONTHLY RECORD OF 96 F AT
CAE AND AGS COULD BE IN PLAY ON FRIDAY AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2: A COLD FRONT THIS WEEKEND BRINGS INCREASED FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS AND LIMITED PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE AREA.
AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS IS EXPECTED TO PUSH
EASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BREAKING DOWN THE UPPER RIDGE THAT
HAS BEEN PARKED OVER THE AREA. THIS TROUGH IS ALSO FORECAST TO
PUSH A COLD FRONT TOWARD AND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AS WELL.
RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY CONTINUE TO LOOK FAIRLY LIMITED GIVEN THE
LACK OF MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND WEAK SYNOPTIC
FORCING ALOFT. A FEW SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE, BUT ANY PRECIP
LOOKS TO BE LIGHT, WHICH IS EVIDENCED BY A VERY LOW (<10%)
CHANCE OF AT LEAST 0.10" OF RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM.
THE MORE NOTABLE IMPACT CONTINUES TO BE INCREASED FIRE DANGER
ONCE AGAIN, ESPECIALLY AFTER THE FRONT PASSES. AFTERNOON RH
VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 20-30% RANGE OVER THE WEEKEND
AND SLIGHTLY LOWER ON MONDAY. IN ADDITION TO THE NEAR CRITICAL
TO CRITICAL RH VALUES THIS WEEKEND, BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS ON
SATURDAY SWITCH TO WEST TO NORTHWEST FOR SUNDAY AS GUSTS REACH
20-30 MPH AT TIMES TO END THE WEEKEND. WIND GUSTS DIMINISH SOME
FOR MONDAY AS THE FRONT PUSHES FURTHER EAST OF THE AREA.
KEY MESSAGE 3: REFRESHINGLY COOLER BUT VERY DRY START TO NEXT
WEEK.
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST EVOLUTION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT,
AS CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPS MOVE
INTO THE FORECAST AREA TO BEGIN THE WORK WEEK. THE LATEST BLENDED
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW AN 80% OR GREATER CHANCE OF HIGHS
TOPPING OUT BELOW AVERAGE ON MONDAY BEFORE A GRADUAL WARMUP INTO
TO THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK. WITH THE STRETCH OF RELATIVELY
WARM TEMPS, THESE TEMPS MIGHT FEEL ON THE COOL SIDE. CONTINUING
DRY CONDITIONS, EVEN WITH SOME RAINFALL POSSIBLE SUNDAY, MEANS
WORSENING DROUGHT CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD.
CLEAR SKIES CURRENTLY IN PLACE, EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD. WIND GUSTS CONTINUE TO DECREASE
INTO THIS EVENING WITH WSW WINDS CONTINUING FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS, BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. WHILE WINDS MAY FAVOR
A BIT MORE OF A NORTHERLY DIRECTION TOMORROW MORNING BUT WILL
GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE TO PERSIST INTO THE
WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT MAY LEAD TO BRIEF RESTRICTIONS SUNDAY BUT
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...29
AVIATION...96
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