095
FXUS62 KCAE 230548
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
148 AM EDT SUN AUG 23 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
DRIER CONDITIONS TO START THE WEEK OUTSIDE OF ISOLATED
SHOWERS/STORMS; PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE MIDWEEK. UPDATED
06Z AVIATION.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WITH AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
EACH DAY THIS WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WITH AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES EACH DAY INTO NEXT WEEK.
CALMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SETTLE IN FOR SUNDAY AS
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHIFTS EAST TOWARD THE COASTAL
PLAIN. MEANWHILE, DRIER AIR AND SOME MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE SHOULD
HELP CLEAR CLOUD COVER FROM THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA. NAEFS
ENSEMBLE MEANS SUGGEST PWAT VALUES FALLING TOWARD THE 10TH
PERCENTILE, GENERALLY AROUND 1.25 INCHES. WHILE A STRAY
THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT DURING PEAK
AFTERNOON HEATING, PARTICULARLY ALONG THE STRONGER MOISTURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA,
MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY SUNDAY.
GENERALLY QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF THE WEEK AS A RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE. RAIN
CHANCES SHOULD STAY LOW THROUGH MONDAY, WITH ONLY ISOLATED
DIURNALLY DRIVEN THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY PART OF
THE WEEK. MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM MID TO LATE
WEEK, RESULTING IN A TREND TOWARD HIGHER AFTERNOON STORM
COVERAGE. LREF PROBABILITIES INDICATE A 50-70 PERCENT CHANCE OF
PWAT VALUES EXCEEDING 1.75 INCHES FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD. UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGHING WILL ALSO BEGIN TO SHIFT INTO THE REGION,
SUPPORTING INCREASING MOISTURE AND GREATER CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS. WEAK SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW SHOULD
ALSO PROVIDE ADDITIONAL FORCING FOR CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WARM AS THIS OVERALL PATTERN PERSISTS
INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
MAY SUPPORT DEVELOPING RESTRICTIONS AROUND SUNRISE THIS MORNING.
GUIDANCE HAS NOT BEEN CONSISTENT RUN TO RUN, HOWEVER, AND
CONFIDENCE REMAINS SOMEWHAT LIMITED ESPECIALLY WITH SATELLITE
OBSERVATIONS SHOWING HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN ALONG WITH LOW CLOUDS
AROUND 5KFT. THE OVERALL SETUP DOES APPEAR TO SUPPORT A MIX OF
MVFR AND IFR VISIBILITIES, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR IFR AT
AGS AND OGB. ANY RESTRICTIONS THAT DO DEVELOP THIS MORNING
SHOULD MIX OUT MUCH MORE QUICKLY THIS MORNING COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING A VERY SHALLOW
LAYER OF MOISTURE. ISOLATED STORMS ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SO HAVE INCLUDED A PROB30 GROUP FOR TSRA FOR THE AUGUSTA
TERMINALS AND OGB WITH HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORMS
AFFECTING THESE TERMINALS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...ISOLATED STORMS EACH AFTERNOON WITH
HIGHER COVERAGE OF STORMS EXPECTED BY MIDWEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ND
AVIATION...96
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