863
FXUS62 KCAE 011052
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
652 AM EDT MON JUN 1 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS CONTINUE TODAY INTO TUESDAY
BEFORE DRIER CONDITIONS BEGIN TO MOVE IN. A STRONG STORM
CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- 2. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TUESDAY BEHIND A FRONT BEFORE A
WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED INTO THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS CONTINUE TODAY INTO
TUESDAY BEFORE DRIER CONDITIONS BEGIN TO MOVE IN. A STRONG STORM
CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
THE FRONT THAT PASSED ON SUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO MEANDER BACK
NORTH A BIT AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE SC COAST
BEFORE A SHARPER TROUGH DIGS THROUGH THE EASTERN US. ANOTHER
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THIS SHARPER TROUGH, PASSING
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. OVERALL, THE ENVIRONMENT THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING IS EXPECTED TO BE CHARACTERIZED BY PWAT'S NEAR
1.70-1.90", INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR NEAR 20-30 KTS, AND
MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG. AS DEPICTED IN THE 00Z HREF
SOLUTION, UPPER SUPPORT AND THE SURFACE FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO
BRING ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON, LIKELY CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE OVERALL
FLASH FLOODING RISK IS LOWER THAN PREVIOUS DAY'S AS STORM
MOTIONS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO BETWEEN 15-25 KTS. A STORM
ON THE STRONG SIDE WITH THE MAIN RISK OF STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT, BUT OVERALL SEVERE RISK IS QUITE
LIMITED.
THIS FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST SHOULD BRING
COOLER/DRIER AIR INTO TUESDAY, THOUGH IT MAY STALL OUT NEAR THE
SOUTHERN FA, BRINGING CONTINUED SCATTERED RAIN CHANCES THROUGH
AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. PWAT'S THEN LIKELY DROP TO
UNDER 1" TUESDAY EVENING AS A SURGE OF DRY AIR MOVES, LEADING TO
DRIER CONDITIONS THAT LIKELY HOLD THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 2: BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TUESDAY BEHIND A FRONT
BEFORE A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED INTO THIS WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REBOUND A BIT CLOSER TO NORMAL
TODAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT, BEFORE FALLING BELOW NORMAL
TUESDAY AS A PUSH OF CAA MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT. CURRENT NBM
GUIDANCE HAS HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S,
BUT DEPENDING ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT PUSHES AND THE TIMING
OF THE ONSET OF 850MB CAA, TEMPERATURES, COULD TREND TOWARD THE
LOW TO MID 70S AS SEEN IN THE RECENT MET/MAV MOS GUIDANCE. THERE
IS LIMITED CHANGE IN THE TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND. THE LATEST LREF CLUSTER ANALYSIS REMAINS IS DECENT
AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL US
WILL SHIFT OVERHEAD WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AS
WELL. THIS SHOULD BRING TEMPERATURES THAT REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
WEDNESDAY, BUT BEGIN STEADILY RAISING CLOSER TO NORMAL THURSDAY
AND INTO THIS WEEKEND.
AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
MIX OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS THIS MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND
SCATTERED STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
LOW CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING WITH MVFR CEILINGS FOR
THE COLUMBIA TERMINALS AND A MIX OF IFR/MVFR CEILINGS ELSEWHERE.
WHILE THERE WERE SOME LIGHT ISOLATED SHOWERS OVERNIGHT, THEY
HAVE GENERALLY SHIFTED EAST OF THE TERMINALS AND EXPECT MOSTLY
DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MORNING. WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
DEVELOPING ALOFT, SOME DRIER AIR WILL BE MOVING IN WHICH WILL
HELP TO SCOUR OUT THE LOW CLOUDS INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO ALL THE TERMINALS. AS ANOTHER
FRONT DROPS INTO THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING,
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP SO HAVE
CONTINUED THE PROB30 FOR ALL THE TERMINALS. WITH DECREASING
INSTABILITY INTO TONIGHT, THUNDERSTORMS WILL DECREASE IN
COVERAGE, ALTHOUGH SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE, GENERALLY REMAINING
LIGHT AND UNLIKELY TO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT RESTRICTIONS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE INTO
TUESDAY, THEN DRIER AIR BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION MID TO
LATE WEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DH
AVIATION...96
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