606
FXUS62 KCAE 091046
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
646 AM EDT THU JUL 9 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 12Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. HOT AND BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TODAY AND TOMORROW.
- 2. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY BRINGS HIGHER RAIN CHANCES FOR THE
WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY INCREASINGLY LIKELY COOLER TEMPS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: HOT AND BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TODAY AND
TOMORROW.
AN MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY CONTINUES
TO SLOWLY TREK EASTWARD TODAY, GRADUALLY FLATTENING OUT THE
RIDGE OVERHEAD. AS THE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD, IT IS EXPECTED TO
ABSORBED INTO A LARGER SCALE TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN STREAM. A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK IN RESPONSE, LEADING TO BREEZY CONDITIONS AND THE
CHANCE FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BOTH TODAY AND FRIDAY. DESPITE
THE TROUGH MOVING OVERHEAD, 850MB TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO BE
AROUND 21-23C, WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO SURFACE TEMPS IN THE UPPER
90S TODAY AND TOMORROW. DEW POINTS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE
UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70F, RESULTING IN HEAT INDICES IN THE
100-105F RANGE BOTH AFTERNOONS. CONTINUE TO TAKE PRECAUTIONS IF
YOU NEED TO SPEND PROLONGED TIME OUTDOORS THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS DOESN'T LOOK TO BE
VERY HIGH DUE TO WEAK FORCING MECHANISMS. HOWEVER, FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW AN INVERTED V PROFILE, INDICATING THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME STRONGER WINDS WITH AND STORMS THAT ARE ABLE TO
DEVELOP.
KEY MESSAGE 2: A FRONTAL BOUNDARY BRINGS HIGHER RAIN CHANCES FOR THE
WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY INCREASINGLY LIKELY COOLER TEMPS.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST EARLY THIS
MORNING IS FORECAST TO GET PUSHED SOUTHWARD FROM A SHORTWAVE
MOVING FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. AS THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH APPROACH THE
AREA, MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CAN BE
ANTICIPATED FOR THE WEEKEND. THIS ACTIVITY COULD LINGER INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE FRONT
STALLS OUT NEAR THE AREA. IN ADDITION TO THE INCREASED RAIN
CHANCES, IT LOOKS INCREASINGLY LIKELY THAT WE'LL SEE COOLER
TEMPS. THE NBM INTERQUARTILE RANGE (IQR) ON MONDAY RANGES FROM
THE LOW TO MID 80S TO AROUND 90F FOR THE AREA. GIVEN THE RECENT
HOT TEMPS, THE NBM TAKES THAT INTO ACCOUNT AND WILL LIKELY HAVE
A WARM BIAS. SO, I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF WE END UP TOWARD
THE COOLER END OF THE IQR.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING WITH ONLY SOME PASSING CIRRUS
THEN DIURNAL CUMULUS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH STRONG HEATING
AGAIN TODAY. A 20 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET IS SUPPORTING SURFACE WINDS
AROUND 5 KNOTS WHICH SHOULD INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS BY 15Z.
GUSTY WINDS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED BY MIDDAY WITH SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 12-13 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20-25 KNOTS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HI-RES GUIDANCE SUGGESTING SOME
CONVECTION IMPACTING THE CSRA LATE AFTERNOON SO HAVE INCLUDED A
PROB30 GROUP THERE. WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE AFTER SUNSET BUT REMAIN
UP AROUND 5 TO 7 KNOTS OVERNIGHT WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET
FORECAST. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON
STORMS THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...29
AVIATION...23
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