155
FXUS62 KCAE 260027
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
827 PM EDT SAT JUL 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 00Z FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. DIMINISHING FLOODING THREAT INTO SUNDAY WITH CONTINUED
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
- 2. A RETURN TO A MORE SUMMER LIKE PATTERN NEXT WEEK WITH
INCREASED STRONG TO SEVERE STORM THREAT MID WEEK.
DISCUSSION
- 1. DIMINISHING FLOODING THREAT INTO SUNDAY WITH CONTINUED
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES TO BE FAVORABLE TO SUPPORT A
HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING THREAT WITH PWATS AROUND 2.2-2.4 INCHES
AND MUCAPE VALUES BETWEEN 1000-3000 J/KG ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. HOWEVER, CONVECTIVE COVERAGE DOES NOT LOOK ROBUST ENOUGH
TO YIELD WIDESPREAD FLOODING PROBELMS. WE ARE STILL LOOKING AT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT TONIGHT,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL MIDLANDS. A SHORTWAVE IS PUSHING
SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHAINS CURRENTLY, FORCING
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE UPSTATE. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO
CONTINUE AND EVEN POTENTIALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. THIS SHOULD MERELY RESULT IN EFFICIENT RAINFALL AS IT
PUSHES INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. DRIER AIR,
ESPECIALLY IN THE MID LEVELS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA BEGINNING TOMORROW WHICH WILL HELP TO LOWER THE
FLOOD THREAT. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE WITH EXTENSIVE
CLOUDS AND LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS AS THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
BECOMES MORE DIFFUSE.
- 2. A RETURN TO A MORE SUMMER LIKE PATTERN NEXT WEEK WITH
INCREASED STRONG TO SEVERE STORM THREAT MID WEEK.
LREF CLUSTERED ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH
THE OVERALL PATTERN FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK FEATURING A STRONG
UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND PLAINS STATES
RESULTING IN DOWNSTREAM UPPER TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN
THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. THIS PATTERN SHOULD SUPPORT A DRIER AIR
MASS OVER THE REGION EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH DOWNSLOPING
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND DEEPER MIXING. THERE ALSO IS LIKELY TO BE
A SERIES OF SMALLER DIFFICULT TO TIME DISTURBANCES MOVING
THROUGH THE FLOW WHICH MAY ADD TO OR ENHANCE NORMALLY DIURNAL
CONVECTION. THE INCREASED MID LEVEL DRY AIR MAY SUPPORT A
SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCE OF STRONG STORMS AND LOWER FLOODING
THREAT THAN WE HAVE RECENTLY EXPERIENCED. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO ALSO WARM BACK TO NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL EARLY IN THE
WEEK WITH TUESDAY BEING THE WARMEST DAY MOST LIKELY WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S.
STRONGER SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS FORECAST TO DIG THROUGH THE BASE
OF THE UPPER TROUGH INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC BY LATE TUESDAY
PUSHING A FRONT INTO THE REGION BY MID WEEK. INCREASED MID LEVEL
FLOW AND 850MB WINDS COMBINED WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY SHOULD
YIELD INCREASED THREAT OF STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. SPC CONTINUES TO CARRY A 15% RISK AREA
ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO NORTH CAROLINA WHILE CSU ML
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A SIMILAR SIGNAL ACROSS THE CAROLINAS
ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WOULD BE THE
PRIMARY THREAT WITH ANY SEVERE THREAT THAT MAY DEVELOP.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WITH RESTRICTIONS LIKELY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
BOUNDARY REMAINS OVER THE AREA WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTINUING TO POOL AT THE TERMINALS AS DEW POINTS REMAIN IN THE
LOW TO MID 70S. A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING IN OVERNIGHT MAY
GENERATE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND HAVE INCLUDED A PROB30 GROUP AT
ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT DNL/AGS FOR THIS POSSIBILITY. LEFT OUT THE
MENTION OF THUNDER AS EXPECT LIMITED INSTABILITY IN THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH CONTINUED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE, GUIDANCE
FAVORS RESTRICTIONS DEVELOPING ONCE AGAIN EARLY SUNDAY MORNING,
MAINLY AS LOW CEILINGS. HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR IFR IS AT THE
COLUMBIA TERMINALS WITH LOWER PROBABILITY SOUTH AND WEST,
ALTHOUGH AT LEAST A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR REMAINS POSSIBILITY AT
ALL TERMINALS. EXPECT IMPROVEMENT DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON AT ALL TERMINALS WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY DEVELOP TOWARDS THE END OF THE
PERIOD, FAVORING THE EASTERN AREA BUT HAVE LEFT OUT THE MENTION
FOR NOW AS IT IS TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AND
CONFIDENCE REMAINS SOMEWHAT LIMITED.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...DRIER WEATHER AND LOWER CHANCES FOR
MORNING RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED EARLY THIS COMING WEEK. BY LATE
TUESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY, RAIN CHANCES BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN
WITH ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...23/PL
AVIATION...96
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