311
FXUS62 KCAE 222344
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
744 PM EDT WED JUL 22 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AS A SLOW-
MOVING FRONT APPROACHES. UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: RAIN CHANCES INCREASE ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AS A
SLOW-MOVING FRONT APPROACHES. UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
A COLD FRONT IS ANTICIPATED TO CONTINUE SINKING TOWARD THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS EVENTUALLY STALLING NEAR THE FA AS A
COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES ROTATE THROUGH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN SEABOARD. MOST AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY THIS EVENING
OUTSIDE OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.
AS THE FRONT STALLS NEAR OUR AREA ON THURSDAY, THE SLOW MOVING
NATURE SETS THE STAGE FOR IMPACTFUL FLASH FLOODING OVER THE
CAROLINAS AS HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS TRAIN ALONG THE BOUNDARY WITH
PLENTY OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE. HEAVY RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH THE FLOODING THREAT
CONSEQUENTIALLY INCREASING EACH DAY ALONG THE I-20 CORRIDOR. PW
VALUES ARE FORECAST TO EXCEED 2" WITH DEEP SW FLOW, RELATIVELY
SKINNY CAPE PROFILES, AND DEEP WARM CLOUD DEPTHS. WITH MEAN FLOW
ORIENTED ALMOST PERFECTLY PARALLEL TO THE BOUNDARY, TRAINING AND
HIGHLY EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCING CELLS REMAIN LIKELY.
ALTHOUGH STILL SUBJECT TO CHANGE, RAINFALL TOTALS OF A COUPLE OF
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH SAT, WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS OF 2-4"
POSSIBLE IN THE PROXIMITY OF THE BOUNDARY (DECREASING TO THE SOUTH).
ADDITIONALLY, LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS WILL BE POSSIBLE WHERE STORMS
REPEATEDLY TRAIN OVER THE SAME LOCATION. THE WEATHER PREDICTION
CENTER HIGHLIGHTS NEARLY ALL OF THE CWA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THU AND FRI. WITH THIS, IT COULD WARRANT FLOOD
ADVISORIES AND/OR FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS.
MAX TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO COOL TO BELOW NORMAL THROUGH SAT
UNDER ANOMALOUSLY LOW HEIGHTS AND WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE NORTHEAST THIS WEEKEND AND WILL TRY TO
NUDGE THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH BRINGING A BIT MORE STABLE AIR WITH
TIME INTO NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
OUTSIDE OF ISOLATED SHOWER/STORMS, VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
WIDESPREAD MID-LEVEL DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS EXPECTED THROUGH
SUNSET BEFORE THEY DIMINISH AND HIGHER CLOUDS REMAIN ALOFT. A
SMALL BATCH OF SHOWERS IS MOVING THROUGH THE CSRA AND INTO THE
CENTRAL MIDLANDS AT ISSUANCE TIME, AND IS EXPECTED TO HAVE MINOR
IMPACTS AT AIK/CAE/CUB THROUGH 01Z. BRIEF MVFR VISIBILITIES
SHOULD OCCUR. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DIMINISHING TO AROUND 5
TO 7 KNOTS OVERNIGHT. ON THURSDAY, A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY
SINKS SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA. GUIDANCE SHOWS RAIN
CHANCES INCREASING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HOWEVER IT ALSO
INDICATES THAT THE RAIN POTENTIAL WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE
FAR NORTHERN MIDLANDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
CONTINUED WITH PROB30 AT CAE/CUB, BUT ADJUSTED THE TIMING MORE
TOWARDS 18Z AND ONWARD. IT APPEARS AS IF THE REMAINING SITES
SHOULD REMAIN RAIN FREE THURSDAY. LOW CONFIDENCE IN PREDAWN
FOG/STRATUS SO NO MENTION AT THIS TIME.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS FROM SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY INTO THE WEEKEND.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...7/ND
AVIATION...73
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