856
FXUS62 KCAE 241034
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
634 AM EDT FRI JUL 24 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT STARTING AT NOON TODAY FOR THE
COLUMBIA METRO AREA AND COUNTIES TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. KEY
MESSAGE UPDATED TO REFLECT LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE. AVIATION
DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 12Z TAF UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
TODAY, RESULTING IN HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING. RAIN PERSISTS INTO THE SATURDAY, MAINLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN FORECAST AREA.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED TODAY-TONIGHT, RESULTING IN HEAVY RAINFALL AND
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. RAIN PERSISTS INTO THE SATURDAY,
MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA.
AFTER MANY DAYS OF ANTICIPATION, THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT HAS REACHED
THE FORECAST AREA AND WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTH TOWARDS THE
SOUTHERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA. NOW THAT THE BOUNDARY HAS REACHED SOUTH
CAROLINA, THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING WILL BE
HIGHEST TODAY ALONG THE PWAT SWATH OF 2.25-2.5". THE WPC HAS
PLACED THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA IN A SLIGHT (2/4) RISK FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WITH A MODERATE (3/4) RISK ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN MIDLANDS. THE SLOW MOVING FRONT WILL SERVE AS AN
AXIS FOR ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUPPORTED BY RISING
PWATS IN EXCESS OF 2", INCREASING LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE-
FORCING, AND DECREASING WINDS-SHEAR ALOFT. BUT 00Z AND 06Z
SUITES OF MODEL GUIDANCE ARE SOMEWHAT CONCERNING, SHOWING THE
POTENTIAL FOR 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAINFALL, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 5 INCHES. HREF AND REFS GUIDANCE SUGGEST,
LIKE WE HAVE SEEN IN NC, WAVES OF ON AND OFF HEAVY SHOWERS-
STORMS DURING DAYTIME HOURS AND THEN MORE PERSISTENT TRAINING
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. SO THE PRIMARY FLASH FLOOD THREAT MAY NOT
FULLY MATERIALIZE UNTIL OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE MAIN
CONCERN WILL BE FROM URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING, ESPECIALLY
IF TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS MOVE OVER AREAS PRONE TO FLASH
FLOODING. REGARDLESS OF WHETHER YOU ARE IN THE WATCH ITSELF,
EVERYONE SHOULD REMAIN WEATHER AWARE TODAY AND REMEMBER TO TURN
AROUND, DON'T DROWN SHOULD YOU ENCOUNTER A FLOODED ROADWAY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO SATURDAY,
ALTHOUGH COVERAGE SHOULD BECOME MORE SCATTERED AS THE FRONT WEAKENS
AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATES. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE EASTERN
FORECAST AREA WILL BE MORE LIKELY TO SEE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ON
SATURDAY, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-95. THE CLOUDS AND RAIN
SHOULD PROVIDE SOME RELIEF FROM THE HEAT WITH FORECAST HIGHS TODAY
MOSTLY IN THE 80S AND A FEW DEGREES WARMER ON SATURDAY. A MORE
TYPICAL LATE JULY PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO RETURN NEXT WEEK, BRINGING
BACK HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WITH DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
MIX OF RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD WITH
PERIODIC LOWERING CIGS AND HEAVY RAIN-STORMS.
A SLOW MOVING FRONT IS DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA AND WILL BRING
IFR CIGS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF FRIDAY MORNING ALONG WITH
PERIODIC SHOWERS TO CAE AND CUB; OTHER SITES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE
IFR THROUGH THE MORNING. CIGS WILL LIFT LATER THIS MORNING TO
MVFR ACROSS THE AREA BUT WAVES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
REMAIN EXPECTED UNTIL THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. PERIODIC IFR-
LIFR RESTRICTIONS LIKELY AT TIMES ALONG WITH THUNDER ESPECIALLY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT; INCLUDING SEVERAL GROUPS OF
TEMPOS AND PROB30'S TO TRY TO CONVEY THIS. CONFIDENCE IS
HIGHEST IN NOTABLE RESTRICTIONS AT CAE, OGB, AND CUB FROM 00Z
SATURDAY - 12Z SATURDAY. WINDS FOR CAE AND CUB SHOULD REMAIN
OUT OF THE NORTHWEST THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WHILE OGB, DNL, AND
AGS WILL BE SLIGHTLY MORE VARIABLE CLOSER TO THE FRONT.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS FROM SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY INTO THE WEEKEND FOR ALL TAF SITES.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR
SCZ027-028-031-037-038-041-135>137.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...7
AVIATION...42
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