894
FXUS62 KCAE 170551
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1251 AM EST TUE FEB 17 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED LATER THIS WEEK.
HIGHS IN THE 70S AND 80S ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY/FRIDAY.
- 2) RAIN IS EXPECTED AGAIN THIS WEEKEND BUT THE DETAILS AND
TIMING OF THAT RAIN ARE QUITE UNCERTAIN.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE #1: WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED LATER
THIS WEEK. HIGHS IN THE 70S AND 80S ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY/FRIDAY.
OUR WARMING TREND IS FORECAST TO PERSIST INTO THE END OF THE
WEEK. HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE OVER THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS AS
A LARGE, DEEP (AND COMPLEX) UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS INTO THE
WESTERN CONUS AND AMPLIFIES THE OVERALL DOWNSTREAM PATTERN.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, WITH 90TH-95TH PERCENTILE 850 HPA
TEMPS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
ECE EFI VALUES SUGGEST ANOMALOUS WARMTH WITH RECORD TEMPERATURES
POSSIBLE. THURSDAY'S RECORD HIGH AT CAE IS 80F AND AT AGS IS
82F. FRIDAY'S RECORD HIGH AT CAE IS 84F AND AT AGS IS 83F. FOR A
VARIETY OF REASONS, IT SEEMS LIKE IT'LL BE DIFFICULT TO ACHIEVE
THAT. CLOUDS SHOULD BE TOO COPIOUS ON FRIDAY & WE PROBABLY WON'T
BE QUITE WARM ENOUGH YET ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER, ITS REALLY NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT WE SEE LOW 80S EITHER DAY ACROSS THE
AREA. THE WARMTH ON BOTH DAYS IS SEEMINGLY THE ONLY PART OF THE
FORECAST THAT MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE AGREES ON.
KEY MESSAGE #2: RAIN IS EXPECTED AGAIN THIS WEEKEND BUT THE
DETAILS AND TIMING OF THAT RAIN ARE QUITE UNCERTAIN.
THERE IS SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST THIS WEEKEND,
DRIVEN PRIMARILY BY THE COMPLEXITY OF THE WESTERN CONUS. IQR
SPREAD IN THE LREF FOR THE 500 HPA HEIGHTS IS ENORMOUS FOR THE
MEDIUM RANGE, WITH CLUSTER ANALYSIS REALLY NOT ADDING A TON OF
VALUE TO THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT. GIVEN BROAD AND PERSISTENT
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK, ANOMALOUS MOISTURE
SHOULD BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT EARLY ON
FRIDAY. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT BUT REALLY DON'T LOOK TO INCREASE UNTIL SATURDAY EVENING
OR SATURDAY NIGHT. WE'LL HAVE ACCESS TO PWS IN THE 80TH TO 90TH
PERCENTILE AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE EMERGING FROM THE WESTERN
CONUS, SO OUR BEST BEST RAIN CHANCES SHOULD BE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY. ITS HARD TO FORECAST MORE THAN
THIS AT THIS POINT AS THE SPREAD AMONGST THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
IS EXTREMELY HIGH.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
FOG POSSIBLE THIS MORNING ESPECIALLY NEAR AGS AND OGB, BUT MAY
EXPANDED CLOSER TO COLUMBIA TERMINALS. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
OUTSIDE OF THIS.
FEW TO SCT HIGH CIRRUS CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO THE REGION WITH
WINDS BEING CALM AT MOST LOCATIONS. OUTSIDE OF THESE CIRRUS, THE
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE FOG AFTER 08-10Z TONIGHT. GUIDANCE HAS
TRENDED A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE, ESPECIALLY TOWARDS OGB WHERE THE
HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN FOG EXISTS. SHALLOW GROUND OR RIVER FOG
COULD BE POSSIBLE BEFORE THIS TIME FRAME BUT AFTER 09Z, IFR TO
MVFR VISIBILITIES ARE MOST LIKELY AT AGS/OGB WHERE PERIODS OF
LIFR VISIBILITIES CANNOT BE RULED OUT. FOR THE COLUMBIA
TERMINALS, GREATER UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF
FOG, BUT PROBABILITIES FOR MVFR VISIBILITIES HAVE INCREASED AND
THUS A COUPLE HOURS WITH THIS SEEMS REASONABLE BETWEEN 11-13Z.
ANY FOG IS EXPECTED TO BURN OFF AFTER 14-15Z AND GIVE WAY TO VFR
CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
MUCH OF THE DAY. TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD, SOME MORE CIRRUS
MAY BEGIN MOVING IN.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MOISTURE INCREASES THROUGH THE WEEK
LEADING TO INCREASING CHANCES OF MORNING FOG/STRATUS. THE NEXT
CHANCE OF RAIN IS TRENDING TOWARD THE LATE WEEK AND THIS
WEEKEND.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...82
AVIATION...17
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