027
FXUS62 KCAE 301738
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
138 PM EDT SAT MAY 30 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS REDEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON, WITH
CHANCES CONTINUING INTO NEXT WEEK. RAIN CHANCES DIMINISH MIDWEEK
ONWARD. SUNDAY'S HIGHS TRENDING COOLER. AVIATION DISCUSSION
UPDATED FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE INTO THE
FIRST PART OF THE WEEK, WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE.
- 2. RELATIVELY COOL TEMPS EXPECTED SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY A WARMING
TREND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE INTO
THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK, WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST
TODAY, CAUSING SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO CONTINUE
INTO TONIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. PWATS REMAIN RELATIVELY HIGH, SO
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL REMAINS POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
SHOULD TRAINING OR BACK BUILDING OCCUR, AN ISOLATED INSTANCE OF
FLASH FLOODING CAN'T BE RULED OUT.
A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA, WHICH IS
EASILY DENOTED BY DEW POINTS IN THE 40S NORTH OF THE SAGGING
BOUNDARY AND 60S TO THE SOUTH OF IT. THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE SAGGING SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY, LIMITING
THE SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY MAINLY TO THE CSRA. IT IS THEN
FORECAST TO WAVER BACK AND FORTH AS WE HEAD INTO THE WORK WEEK.
MULTIPLE PULSES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ARE FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA, KEEPING THE DAILY CHANCES FOR RAINFALL GOING INTO THE
FIRST PART OF THE WEEK. GUIDANCE THEN SUGGESTS AN OFFSHORE LOW
COULD DEVELOP AND MOVE AWAY FROM SHORE, ESSENTIALLY DRYING THE
AREA OUT FOR THE LAST HALF OF THE WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 2: RELATIVELY COOL TEMPS EXPECTED SUNDAY FOLLOWED
BY A WARMING TREND.
THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO USHER IN SOME
COOLER AND DRIER AIR FOR SUNDAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WE
CURRENTLY HAVE MID TO UPPER 70S FORECAST FOR HIGHS TOMORROW, BUT
SOME OF THE LATEST GUIDANCE HAS BEEN COMING IN COOLER AS CLOUD
COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT SHOULD AID IN KEEPING
TEMPERATURES ON THE COOLER SIDE. DECIDED NOT TO ADJUST TEMPS AT
THIS TIME, BUT THE MAY NEED TO BE LOWERED IN FUTURE FORECAST
PACKAGES. AFTER TOMORROW, AN UPPER RIDGE BEGINS BUILDING OVER
THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK, LEADING TO A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS AT ALL TAF LOCATIONS THROUGH THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS. RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
MAIN COLD FRONT REMAINS WELL OFF TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT WILL BE SLOWLY PUSHING SOUTHWARD
TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY. WITH A MOIST AND SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE AIRMASS
ACROSS ALL TAF LOCATIONS, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY PORTIONS OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
WHILE VFR CONDITIONS ARE MAINLY EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF ANY RAIN AREAS,
BRIEF MVFR RESTRICTIONS MAY OCCUR AS A SHOWER/STORM MOVES OVER ANY
TAF SITE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WILL BE OUT OF THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AROUND 5 KNOTS OR SO AHEAD OF
THE FRONT, THEN AFTER MIDNIGHT SHOULD BEGIN TURNING MORE OUT OF THE
EAST AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10
KNOTS BEHIND THE FRONT. GUIDANCE IS IN SOMEWHAT GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
DROPPING CEILINGS DOWN BEHIND THE FRONT LATE TONIGHT, WITH AT LEAST
MVFR RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED. THERE REMAINS A POSSIBILITY OF EVEN
SEEING SOME IFR RESTRICTIONS IN THE CSRA TOWARDS MORNING CLOSER TO
THE FRONT. RESTRICTIONS THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...UNSETTLED WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK UNTIL DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION MID-WEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...29
AVIATION...CAL
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