087
FXUS62 KCAE 242346
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
746 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT. AVIATION DISCUSSION
UPDATED FOR 00Z TAF.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. DAILY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEK, WITH LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE THROUGH
TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: DAILY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE INTO
THE UPCOMING WEEK, WITH LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE THROUGH
TUESDAY.
TONIGHT: HIRES MODELS INDICATE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE WESTERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA THIS EVENING
AND INTO TONIGHT. MAIN THREAT WITH THIS DEVELOPING ACTIVITY
WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG WINDS. THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME
FLOODING ISSUES IN AREAS THAT EXPERIENCE SLOW OR TRAINING
ACTIVITY THIS EVENING. ISOLATED STRONG PRECIP-LOADED DOWNDRAFTS
COULD LEAD TO A DAMAGING WIND GUST OR TWO.
REST OF THE WEEK: SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST AT LEAST THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK WITH THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN FAVORING
RIDGING OFFSHORE AND AN UPPER LOW OVER EAST TEXAS. NAEFS MEAN
INDICATES PWATS REMAIN AROUND OR ABOVE THE 99TH PERCENTILE
THROUGH TUESDAY. HEAVY RAIN AND ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH AFTERNOON CONVECTION, ALTHOUGH A STRONG TROUGH
STRENGTHENING IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LEADS TO STRENGTHENING
RIDGING OVER OUR AREA WHICH WOULD LIMIT FORCING SOMEWHAT. WITH
MOISTURE SO HIGH AND MODERATE DESTABILIZATION EACH AFTERNOON,
WILL LIKELY GET SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD STORMS DEVELOPING,
FAVORING THE SEA BREEZE AND PROPAGATING INLAND. STORM COVERAGE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK MAY BE A BIT MORE LIMITED
AS SOUTHWEST FLOW WEAKENS BUT ISOLATED DIURNAL SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
RESTRICTIONS FROM SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING BEFORE
MORE STRATUS IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN MIDLANDS
AND THE CSRA THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH VFR IS MAINLY EXPECTED EARLY
THIS EVENING AT ALL SITES, CAN NOT RULE OUT BRIEF RESTRICTIONS
AT LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY A PASSING SHOWER OR STORM THROUGH
MIDNIGHT. SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT BEFORE
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING INTO MONDAY MORNING. THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD
CONSENSUS ANOTHER ROUND OF STRATUS AND POSSIBLY PATCHY FOG
SHOULD DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT, WITH MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS EXPECTED
AFTER 05-08Z, CONTINUING INTO MONDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE BACK TO VFR AFTER 18Z. WINDS LIKELY REMAIN LIGHT AND
OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT BEFORE BECOMING A BIT MORE
SOUTHERLY AFTER DAYBREAK MONDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD. ANOTHER PERIOD OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND/OR STORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
BRING MORE ROUNDS OF MORNING RESTRICTIONS FROM FOG AND/LOW LOW
CLOUDS TO START THE NEXT WORK WEEK. SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CAL/96
AVIATION...CAL
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