590
FXUS62 KCAE 190013
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
813 PM EDT FRI SEP 18 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 00Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- 2. COOLER AND DRIER AIR RETURNS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
BUT FORECAST UNCERTAINTY REMAINS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE PATTERN FEATURES AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER TX AND AN UPPER
LOW OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST OF FL. AS THE RIDGE SLIDES SLOWLY WETS,
THE UPPER LOW WILL RETROGRADE WESTWARD INTO THE GULF THIS WEEKEND.
THE RESULT IS AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA DUE TO
CONFLUENT FLOW BETWEEN THE HIGH AND LOW. THERE HAS BEEN A BIT MORE
MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED,
WHICH HAS SLOWED WARMING, AND TEMPERATURES ARE SITTING IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S WITH A FEW LOW 90S TOWARD THE NC/SC BORDER WHERE THERE HAS
BEEN MORE SUN. A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE TROUGH ARE STILL
EXPECTED TO FORCE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY NORTH OF THE
I-20 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING. HOWEVER, THE TIMING SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY
LATER DUE TO THE LINGERING CLOUD COVER. A CU FIELD IS STARTING TO
GET ORGANIZED AS OF THIS WRITING, AS SEEN ON VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY. A FEW ROBUST STORMS ARE OBSERVED ACROSS CENTRAL NC AND
MOVING SOUTH. MESOANALYSIS/RAP FORECAST DOES SHOW A BIT BETTER
ENVIRONMENT DEVELOPING IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS, BUT THE SEVERE THREAT
(MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS) STILL APPEARS TO BE LOW. THE MARGINAL RISK
(1 OF 5) WILL BE LIMITED TO THE NORTH AND WESTERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA, WITH THE THREAT DIMINISHING QUICKLY WITH LOSS OF
HEATING. A FEW CAMS CONTINUE CONVECTION OVERNIGHT, BUT COVERAGE
SHOULD BE DECREASING OVERALL. THE UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH PWATS HOLDING AROUND 125-150% OF NORMAL.
WHILE WIDESPREAD FORCING WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED, THIS DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE AND A UNSEASONABLY HOT AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL SUPPORT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2: COOLER AND DRIER AIR RETURNS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK BUT FORECAST UNCERTAINTY REMAINS.
THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE EXACT PATTERN THAT
EVOLVES TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, BUT RUN TO RUN MODEL
CONSISTENCY IS INCREASING. THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW IS
PROGGED TO EJECT OUT OF THE NORTHEAST GULF AND UP THE EASTERN
SEABOARD TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL MAKE WAY FOR HIGH
PRESSURE STRENGTHENING OVER THE NORTHEAST AND RIDGING DOWN THE
COAST TO POTENTIALLY SET UP A COLD AIR DAMMING SCENARIO.
HOWEVER, THE CLASSIC SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DOESN'T APPEAR TO SET
IN UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEK OR ESSENTIALLY BEYOND THE SCOPE OF
THIS FORECAST PACKAGE, AND DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST. THIS SHOULD LIMIT OUR RAIN CHANCES LATE NEXT
WEEK. IN THE MEANTIME, BLENDED GUIDANCE FAVORS NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR HIGHS THOUGH WITH LARGE IQRS DURING THIS PERIOD,
WITH THE DISTRIBUTIONS SKEWED TOWARDS LOWER VALUES. WE WILL
NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS OVER THE COMING DAYS.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DRIFT SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE MIDLANDS
THIS EVENING WITH CONFIDENCE HIGHEST IN POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS AT
CAE/CUB, SO INCLUDED A TEMPO FOR -TSRA 00Z-04Z. WIND GUSTS
AROUND 20 TO 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE ALONG A SOUTHWARD MOVING OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY BETWEEN 00Z-01Z. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE
ELSEWHERE BUT WILL AMEND AS NEEDED. WINDS HAVE DROPPED TO 5
KNOTS OR LESS AND SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT OR BECOME CALM OVERNIGHT.
LINGERING CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH A
BLANKET OF MID-HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOME GUIDANCE
HINTING AT FOG AT TERMINALS BUT THINK EXTENSIVE CLOUDS WILL
LIMIT THAT THREAT AND NOT INCLUDING IN THIS FORECAST. A WEAK
FRONT WILL SINK SOUTH INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY WITH WINDS
EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AROUND 5 TO 7 KNOTS AFTER
15Z. SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON BUT
CONFIDENCE TOO LOW AT THIS TIME RANGE TO INCLUDE IN THIS
FORECAST.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MORNING CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND AS WELL.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...EC
AVIATION...23
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