057
FXUS62 KCAE 180038
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
838 PM EDT FRI JUL 17 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED KEY MESSAGE 1. AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 00Z
TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. ISOLATED CONVECTION CONTINUES OVER THE COMING HOURS.
- 2. INCREASING RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, ALONG WITH
POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: ISOLATED CONVECTION CONTINUES OVER THE COMING
HOURS.
A CLUSTER OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS ONGOING ACROSS
BURKE COUNTY GA TOWARD SOUTHERN AIKEN AND BARNWELL COUNTIES.
ROBUST UPDRAFTS HAVE MERGED ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND
REGIONAL RADARS AT POINTS WERE SHOWING A 50DBZ CORE EXCEEDING
40,000FT WITH INTENSE LIGHTNING NOTED. AS HEATING CONTINUES TO
DIMINISH, STORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED TO DECLINE
AS WELL IN THE COMING HOURS BEFORE MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
KEY MESSAGE 2: INCREASING RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY,
ALONG WITH POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
A POTENT UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL SHIFT NORTH INTO EASTERN GA LATE
SUNDAY WHILE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DROPS INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NC. A SURFACE BOUNDARY MAY SAG INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE
AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR ON MONDAY. BULK SHEAR LOOKS FAIRLY
WEAK ON SUNDAY (5-10 KT) WITH STRONGER SHEAR FARTHER NORTH INTO
THE NC PIEDMONT. HOWEVER, FAIRLY STRONG LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY
WILL DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON, AND DCAPE COULD EXCEED 1000
J/KG IN SPOTS. FURTHERMORE, PWATS WILL RISE ABOVE 2" OVER MOST
OF THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT, WE
ANTICIPATE FAIRLY GOOD COVERAGE OF CONVECTION IN THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ORGANIZATION TO
THE ACTIVITY. THIS COULD RESULT IN A SOMEWHAT GREATER SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL, PRIMARILY FROM DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.
CONSIDERABLE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE EXPECTED AGAIN ON MONDAY AS THE
SURFACE FRONT POTENTIALLY SAGS SOUTH INTO THE AREA, PROVIDING AN
ADDITIONAL FOCUS.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
AFTERNOON CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BE FOCUSED IN THE CSRA THIS
EVENING SO CONTINUING A VCSH UNTIL 02Z FOR AGS/DNL/AIK.
OTHERWISE WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE LESS THAN 5 KNOTS
AFTER 02Z WITH DEBRIS CLOUDS THROUGH MIDNIGHT THEN DIMINISHING
OVERNIGHT. SOME BRIEF MORNING GROUND FOG POSSIBLE BUT CONFIDENCE
NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST. WINDS PICK UP AFTER
15Z FROM THE SOUTH AND INCREASE TO AROUND 8 TO 10 KNOTS DURING
THE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION POSSIBLE AGAIN
SATURDAY BUT MAYBE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON CLOSE TO THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...POTENTIAL FOR RESTRICTIONS FROM
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DH/JRL
AVIATION...23
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