210
FXUS62 KCAE 101141
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
741 AM EDT WED JUN 10 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SYNTAX CORRECTION.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND THURSDAY, WITH
BETTER RAIN CHANCES FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND IN A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
PATTERN.
- 2. TEMPERATURES WARMING TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF DANGEROUSLY HOT TEMPERATURES.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND THURSDAY,
WITH BETTER RAIN CHANCES FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND IN A TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME PATTERN.
OFFSHORE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY BE IN CONTROL OVER THE
NEXT 24-48 HOURS, AND WILL LIKELY LIMIT OUR CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
DESPITE AMPLE MOISTURE AND STRONG HEATING. PWAT VALUES AT 110-130%
OF NORMAL AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S WILL LEAD TO
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. STRONG HEATING SHOULD LEAD TO A FEW
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING UP TO AROUND
1000 J/KG OF SBCAPE IN THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, OVERALL UPPER SUPPORT
WILL BE LIMITED THROUGH THURSDAY GIVEN HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER
RIDGING IN PLACE. CAM SOLUTIONS EARLY THIS MORNING ARE SHOWING A
LINE OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS NC AND PROGRESSING
SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS AND PEE DEE REGION LATE
THIS AFTERNOON, HOWEVER IT APPEARS MUCH OF ANY ACTIVITY WILL BE
DISSIPATING QUICKLY AS IS APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA PAST OUR PEAK
HEATING OF THE DAY. FRIDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND, HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS
AND ADDITIONAL MOISTURE IS REINFORCED, WITH PWAT VALUES OVER 1.75".
MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE BETTER INSTABILITY OF OVER 1500 J/KG
SBCAPE, WHILE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS STRENGTHEN PARTICULARLY SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY, LEADING TO INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN BETTER CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE. EARLY THOUGHTS GLEANED FROM ENSEMBLE PATTERNS AND IVT
FORECASTS ARE THAT THE ACTIVE PATTERN WITH ABOVE NORMAL
MOISTURE WILL PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 2: WARMING TEMPERATURES DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK
TIME FRAME MAY LEAD TO A PERIOD OF DANGEROUSLY HOT
TEMPERATURES.
ANOMALOUSLY STRONG RIDGING REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES NEAR 20C, OR ABOUT 4-6C
ABOVE NORMAL. THIS SHOULD BRING WELL ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES
TO THE AREA THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND, GENERALLY REACHING THE MID
TO UPPER 90S WITH A FEW LOCATIONS BREAKING INTO TRIPLE DIGITS ON
FRIDAY. AT THE SAME TIME, MOISTURE REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER THE
REGION, AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S (A FEW SPOTS IN THE LOW 70S) EACH DAY. THE COMBINATION OF HEAT
AND HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN HEAT INDEX VALUES REACHING THE
INTO THE 100S THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, BUT ESPECIALLY FRIDAY,
WHEN VALUES COULD BE CLOSER TO 105. ADDITIONALLY THE
EXPERIMENTAL HEAT RISK WILL BE REACHING THE MAJOR CATEGORY (3
OUT OF 4 LEVEL) FOR A MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA BOTH FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH HEAT INDEX VALUES WOULD BE JUST SHY OF
REACHING CRITERIA FOR A HEAT ADVISORY (108 F), WE CONTINUE TO
EVALUATE THE NEED FOR HEADLINES WITH THIS BEING THE FIRST BIG
HEAT WAVE OF THE YEAR.
AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH BRIEF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AT
OGB/AGS.
FEW CHANGES TO THE TAFS THIS CYCLE AS HIGH PRESSURE AND QUIET
WEATHER REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. CONVECTION CONTINUES TO
BE COMMON ACROSS THE OH AND TN VALLEY REGION, WHICH HAS BEEN
(AND CONTINUES TO DO SO) YIELDING HIGH BASE CLOUD DEBRIS ACROSS
OUR AREA. THE DAY AHEAD LOOKS QUITE SIMILAR TO WHAT IT HAS THE
PAST FEW DAYS. SOME BRIEF GROUND FOG MAY IMPACT AGS/OGB AS
THEY'RE PRONE TO GROUND FOG. OTHERWISE, ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS
ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE AREA. LEFT
OVER CLOUDS FROM THAT ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. WINDS
SHOULD BE SOUTH OR SOUTHWESTERLY TODAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
DIURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON THIS WEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...EC
AVIATION...PL
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