974
FXUS62 KCAE 180558
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1258 AM EST TUE NOV 18 2025
SYNOPSIS
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES RISE TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES TODAY,
APPROACHING NEAR RECORD HIGHS BY FRIDAY BEFORE A COOLING TREND
THIS WEEKEND. THE CHANCE OF RAIN IS LOW THROUGH FRIDAY WITH THE
NEXT SIGNIFICANT CHANCE FOR RAIN EXPECTED LATE FRIDAY OR
SATURDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- COOL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THIS MORNING, WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON.
OVERALL, THE WEATHER CONTINUES TO LOOK BEAUTIFUL AND QUIET
TODAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS, BEGINNING TO SHIFT OFF THE COASTLINE AT THIS HOUR.
THERE HAS BEEN SOME LOW END MOISTURE RETURN, WITH DEWPOINTS
BUMPING BACK UP INTO THE MID 30S ACROSS THE AREA. DESPITE THIS,
STILL EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE MID 30S FOR LOWS
BY SUNRISE. WE HAD A BRIEF PERIOD OF CLOUDS PASS OVER THE AREA
BUT THESE ARE NOW TO THE EAST, SETTING THE AREA UP FOR IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. AS WE GET
INTO THE DAY TODAY, LOOK FOR TEMPS TO WARM SLIGHTLY FROM WHERE
THEY WERE AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. HIGHS
SHOULD BUMP UP INTO THE UPPER 60S OR LOW 70S THIS AFTERNOON
UNDER A DRY AIRMASS AND CLEAR, SUNNY SKIES. TONIGHT, A SHORTWAVE
WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH AND SHOULD SHIFT SOME HIGHER MOISTURE
ACROSS THE AREA, WITH PWS RISING TO NEAR 1". THE BEST MOISTURE
SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR NORTH, YIELDING VERY LOW CHANCES OF
RAINFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM. THERE SHOULD BE SOME MORE CLOUDS
AROUND THAN THERE HAVE BEEN OF LATE, THOUGH, SO EXPECT LOWS IN
THE 50S TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY AND WARM WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
UPPER RIDGING WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION DURING
THE SHORT TERM, WITH THE RIDGE AXIS LIKELY MOVING OVERHEAD
THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OFF THE COAST TO PRODUCE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AROUND THE ANTICYCLONE WILL PROMOTE MOISTURE
AND TEMPERATURE ADVECTION. WHILE THE CHANCE FOR RAIN REMAINS
VERY LOW, LESS THAN 10 PERCENT, THE ADDED MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT
IN PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES, ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE, WITH NEAR RECORD HIGHS
POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY.
- THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY.
- TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY COOL THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK,
THOUGH VALUES REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL VALUES.
UPPER RIDGING FLATTENS ON FRIDAY IN RESPONSE TO A SYSTEM
EJECTING OUT OF THE SOUTHWESTERN US. WHILE GUIDANCE HAS COME
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT SINCE LAST NIGHT, THERE REMAIN DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE DETERMINISTIC GFS AND EURO REGARDING THE STRENGTH
OF A PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ITS TIMING. AT THE SURFACE,
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED TO OUR SOUTHEAST ON FRIDAY AND
THIS COULD BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE NEXT SEVEN IF THE
APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM HOLDS OFF. FORECAST HIGHS ON FRIDAY
WILL CHALLENGE RECORDS AT BOTH COLUMBIA AND AUGUSTA BUT THIS
WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER SEEN DURING THE
DAY. IT'LL BE WARM REGARDLESS AND LIKELY FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL
COOLING TREND, THOUGH FORECAST TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE
SEASONAL VALUES THROUGH THE EXTENDED. IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION,
THE BLENDED GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS RAIN ARRIVING FRIDAY NIGHT
WITH THE BEST CHANCE ON SATURDAY WHEN AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
PASSES TO THE NORTH, DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FA.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY SHOULD BE COOLER AND DRIER AS HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS.
AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SHIFT ACROSS THE AREA AND HAS SETTLED
ACROSS THE COASTLINE OF NC/SC. THERE HAS BEEN A SLIGHT UPTICK IN
MOISTURE BUT OVERALL THIS IS PRETTY INSIGNIFICANT RIGHT NOW.
WINDS ARE VERY LIGHT AND SKIES ARE CLEAR EVERYWHERE (AFTER SOME
BRIEF HIGH CLOUDS PASSED ATOP THE AREA EARLIER) SO VFR WILL
LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH 12Z EVERYWHERE. THIS SEEMS LIKE A GREAT
SETUP FOR OGB/AGS TO HAVE SOME SURPRISE GROUND FOG AND WILL KEEP
AN EYE ON THIS POTENTIAL. HOWEVER, CROSSOVER TEMPS WERE IN THE
TEENS THIS AFTERNOON, SO THINKING ITS UNLIKELY THAT GROUND FOG
DEVELOPS. AS WE GET INTO THE DAY, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE. SURFACE FLOW SHOULD GRADUALLY BECOME SOUTHERLY, WITH
WINDS COMMONLY 4-8 KNOTS AT ALL SITES. BY TONIGHT, SOME 4KFT TO
6 KFT SCATTERED CLOUDS SHOULD DEVELOP AS A TROUGH MOVES TO OUR
NORTH. A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON THE
ORDER OF 30-40 KNOTS BY THE END OF THIS PERIOD. THIS MAY
NECESSITATE INCLUSION OF LLWS AT SOME POINT IN THE FORECAST BUT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO DO SO RIGHT NOW. ALL IN ALL, A QUIET,
VFR FORECAST IS IN PLACE.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH
MOST OF THE WEEK WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE. INCREASING MOISTURE
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL LEAD TO CHANCES FOR RAIN AND POSSIBLE
RESTRICTIONS.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
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