858
FXUS62 KCAE 282326
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
726 PM EDT MON SEP 28 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 00Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. DRY CONDITIONS WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
INTO FRIDAY.
- 2. RAIN CHANCES MAY ENTER LATE IN THE WEEK THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: DRY CONDITIONS WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED INTO FRIDAY.
UPPER RIDGING WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE AREA AS
THE LOW OFF THE NORTHEASTERN COAST TRACKS FURTHER AWAY FROM THE
REGION. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE OFF THE
COAST THROUGH MID- WEEK. THE SURFACE WIND PATTERN SHIFTS TO MORE
SOUTHERLY AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES EAST. THIS PATTERN WILL
BRING TEMPERATURES BACK UP ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS BACK UP INTO THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90.
MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
HOWEVER WITH THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA, AND THE MOISTURE
STILL SOMEWHAT SHALLOW, CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY FOR THE
WORK WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 2: RAIN CHANCES MAY ENTER LATE IN THE WEEK THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND.
AS WE GET INTO THE WEEKEND, AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL WEAKEN
THE UPPER RIDGE. AS THIS OCCURS, MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE,
AND SHOULD EVENTUALLY BE DEEP ENOUGH TO BEGIN BRINGING RAIN CHANCES
BACK ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. PWAT VALUES APPEAR TO RISE TO
OVER 1.75 INCHES INTO SATURDAY. SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH
THE APPROACHING UPPER TOUGH IS EXPECTED TO SPARK DIURNAL
RAIN/STORMS ALONG AN APPROACHING SURFACE FRONT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. BEHIND THE FRONT FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK, TEMPERATURES DROP
BACK DOWN BELOW NORMAL.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD.
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA.
DRY AIR IS FIRMLY ENTRENCHED IN PLACE, WITH PWS WELL BELOW 1"
ACROSS THE AREA. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE NIGHT TONIGHT, BUT WITH CROSSOVER TEMPS GENERALLY IN
THE MID 40S, NOT EXPECTING GROUND FOG TO BE A PROBLEM AT OUR FOG
PRONE SITES. MORE OF THE SAME IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY ON
TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO TRAVERSE EASTWARD THROUGH
THE DAY, WITH VARIABLE WINDS AS RESULT. SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY
CLEAR, WITH MAYBE SOME HIGH CIRRUS PASSING OVER SIMILAR TO WHAT
WE SAW TODAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MOSTLY VFR IN THE EXTENDED WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DH
AVIATION...PL
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