828
FXUS62 KCAE 290227
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1027 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED KEY MESSAGES.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. NEAR CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS LIKELY SUNDAY.
- 2. A CHILLY NIGHT TONIGHT BUT THEN TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE
MIDDLE WEEK WITH SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN ENTERING THE
FORECAST.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: NEAR CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS LIKELY SUNDAY.
WITH OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT AND INTO
SUNDAY, WINDS WILL SHIFT ONSHORE. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
WEAKEN HOWEVER, SO SUSTAINED AND GUSTS WILL BE LIGHTER ON SUNDAY
GENERALLY 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS POSSIBLY UP TO 20 MPH. RH'S WILL
REMAIN LOW ACROSS THE REGION, BUT SOME RECOVERY IS LIKELY TO
OUR EAST ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN. OVERALL, THIS WILL LEAD NEAR
CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS GIVEN THE FUEL DRYNESS BUT A RED FLAG
WARNING IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE ISSUED AT THIS TIME FOR SUNDAY.
AS A REMINDER, IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE RED FLAG WARNING, SC AND
GA HAVE ISSUED BURN BAN NOTICES THAT ARE IN EFFECT UNTIL
FURTHER NOTICE.
KEY MESSAGE 2: A CHILLY NIGHT TONIGHT BUT THEN TEMPERATURES WARM
INTO THE MIDDLE WEEK WITH SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN ENTERING THE
FORECAST.
COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES NEARBY. WHILE NOT
AN IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP WITH SOME LINGERING WINDS,
WE WILL STILL DIP DOWN INTO THE 30'S ACROSS THE AREA. THE PEE
DEE WILL LIKELY HAVE THE BEST SHOT AT GETTING DOWN INTO THE LOW
30'S GIVEN PROXIMITY TO THE HIGH AND EXPECTED LIGHTER WINDS.
HOWEVER, WITH DEW POINTS LIKELY STILL IN THE LOW TO MID 20S
TONIGHT, THIS MAKES FROST FORMATION DIFFICULT ALONG WITH DRY
SOIL MOISTURE. BUT, ITS VERY POSSIBLE THAT SOME AREAS WILL GET
TO NEAR FREEZING IN SHELTERED LOCATIONS TONIGHT WITHIN THE
COUNTY. SO WHILE A BIT OF COMPROMISE, A FROST ADVISORY WAS
ISSUED TO COVER THE POTENTIAL AND HEADLINE THE IMPACTS TO
VEGETATION GIVEN THAT WE ARE WITHIN THE GROWING SEASON NOW.
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE THINKING HEADING INTO THE WEEK, AS A
FAMILIAR PATTERN TAKES SHAPE AS UPPER RIDGING NEAR THE NAEFS
90TH PERCENTILE MOVES IN WITH THE SURFACE HIGH GRADUALLY
SHIFTING OFF SHORE. THIS SHOULD BRING A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND TEMPERATURES THAT WARM BACK
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH AT LEAST THE MID WEEK. GLOBAL MODELS AND
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE INDICATE THAT AS THE FA FINDS ITSELF ON THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY ON THE SURFACE HIGH AND UPPER RIDGE BY LATE
TUESDAY, MOISTURE MAKES A RETURN TO THE AREA WITH GEFS AND EC
ENSEMBLE PWAT'S REACHING ABOVE 150% BY WEDNESDAY. INCREASING
MOISTURE ALONG WITH A POTENTIAL FRONT NEARING THE SOUTHEAST
SOMETIME IN THE MID TO LATE WEEK COULD BRING BACK RAIN CHANCES
TO THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC WILL SINK INTO NORTH
CAROLINA OVERNIGHT, THEN MOVE OFFSHORE DURING SUNDAY. CLEAR
SKIES THROUGH SUNRISE WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO SOME INCREASING
CLOUDS ON SUNDAY AS SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH, BUT BASES WILL BE 5K FEET OR ABOVE. WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY VEER FROM THE NORTHEAST THIS EVENING TO THE EAST
AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHEAST BY LATER SUNDAY, BUT SHOULD BE
GENERALLY 5 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND 10 KNOTS ON SUNDAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS RAIN CHANCES RAMP UP BY LATE WEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR SCZ016.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...
AVIATION...FA
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