652
FXUS62 KCAE 282326
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
726 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN HOISTED UNTIL 1A FOR THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. AVIATION DISCUSSION
UPDATED FOR 00Z TAF.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. DRIER CONDITIONS THEN
MOVE IN FOR THE LATE WEEK BEFORE RAIN CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN
THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
- 1. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. DRIER CONDITIONS THEN
MOVE IN FOR THE LATE WEEK BEFORE RAIN CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN
THIS WEEKEND.
IN COLLABORATION WITH SPC, WE HAVE ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH, VALID UNTIL 1A, FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. AN
IMPRESSIVE CLUSTER OF CONVECTION IS DIVING OUT OF WESTERN NC
INTO THE UPSTATE AND IS PROGGED TO APPROACH THE AREA OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. MAINTAINING THIS IS ANOMALOUSLY STRONG WIND
SHEAR, WITH 6KM SHEAR VALUES >40 KNOTS & SBCAPE 2000-3000 ACROSS
THE AREA. EXPECTING THIS CONVECTION TO CONTINUE CONSOLIDATING
AS IT PROGRESSES SOUTHWARD, LIKELY YIELDING DAMAGING WINDS.
DCAPE VALUES ARE 1200-1400 ACROSS OUR AREA (HIGHER VALUES IN THE
UPSTATE!) WHICH WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS. SHEAR IS SO ANOMALOUSLY STRONG THAT IT WOULDN'T BE
SURPRISING IF THERE WAS AN EMBEDDED TOR WITHIN THE CONVECTION,
THOUGH THAT THREAT LOOKS MAXIMIZED TO OUR NORTH. THE CONVECTION
WILL LIKELY CLEAR THE AREA BETWEEN 04Z AND 07Z.
REMAINDER OF FORECAST PERIOD: SOLID AGREEMENT REMAINS IN
ENSEMBLE AND MODEL GUIDANCE THAT BEHIND THE FRONT, MUCH DRIER
AIR WORKS IN WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH PWAT'S FALLING TO
NEARLY 2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL. THIS SHOULD BRING
RELIEF FROM THE HUMIDITY AND NICE WEATHER AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN
NEAR NORMAL. HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND, GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE
ANOTHER SHARP SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE ROBUST RIDGE (WHICH SHOULD
HAVE RETROGRADED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AT THIS POINT).
INCREASED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD BRING RETURNING MOISTURE AND
INCREASED RAIN CHANCES AS THIS WAVE WORKS INTO THE REGION.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF LINE OF CONVECTION MOVING
INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING.
A LINE OF CONVECTION JUST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
CONTINUES TO SINK SOUTHWARD THROUGH WESTERN NC AND SHOULD IMPACT
AT LEAST THE COLUMBIA METRO AREA LATER THIS EVENING. INCLUDED A
TEMPO GROUP FROM 02Z-05Z FOR GUSTY WINDS IN TSRA WITH IFR VSBY
RESTRICTIONS. LOWER CONFIDENCE IN STORMS REACHING THE OTHER
TERMINALS SO DECIDED TO CONTINUE THE PROB30 THERE. OTHERWISE,
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT AND SHIFTING TO THE
NORTHWEST AFTER DAWN AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION.
EXPECT CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS TO LIMIT FOG/STRATUS CONCERNS
AND HI-RES GUIDANCE KEEPS VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS PICK UP TO AROUND 5 TO 8 KNOTS AFTER 15Z.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...DRIER AIR MOVES IN FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK. NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN AND RESTRICTIONS NOT
EXPECTED UNTIL THE WEEKEND.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DH/PL
AVIATION...23
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