418
FXUS62 KCAE 271852
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
252 PM EDT TUE OCT 27 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO KEY MESSAGES. AVIATION DISCUSSION
UPDATED FOR 18Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THIS WEEK WITH GRADUALLY WARMING
TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THIS WEEK WITH GRADUALLY
WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY.
FORECAST THINKING IS MORE OR LESS ON TRACK WITH THE EXTENDED
DRY PERIOD MOST LIKELY CONTINUING THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH.
UPPER RIDGE WILL SLOWLY TRANSLATE EAST THROUGH THE WEEK AND
FLATTEN OUT BY THURSDAY, WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
ANCHORED OVER THE NORTHEAST AND RIDGES SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. THIS WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES EACH
DAY WITH FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE GIVEN VERY SMALL NBM IQRS
THROUGH SATURDAY, SO EXPECT A CONTINUATION OF WARM DAYS AND COOL
NIGHTS THIS WEEK. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH ABOVE NORMAL VALUES
BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE PATTERN STARTS TO SHOW SOME SIGNS
OF SHIFTING SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK, WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN
RETURNING TO THE FORECAST FOR THE FIRST DAY OF NOVEMBER. THIS
MAY ALSO BRING TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW DEGREES WITH THE PATTERN
LOOKING A BIT MORE ACTIVE INTO THE EXTENDED.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, CANNOT RULE
OUT SHALLOW RIVER FOG OR AGAIN.
LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD
CONTINUE THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING.
OVERNIGHT, WINDS ONCE AGAIN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM
WITH FEW TO SCT CIRRUS STREAMING INTO THE REGION. A COUPLE HIGH-
RES MODELS LIKE THE HRRR, RRFS AND THE 12Z HREF SUGGEST SOME
STRATUS DEVELOPMENT IN SOUTHERN NC AND THE PEE DEE COULD DRIFT
SOUTHWARD EARLY IN THE MORNING WEDNESDAY BUT AT THIS TIME THERE
IS LIMITED CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING AS LAMP, NBM, AND REFS
GUIDANCE KEEPS VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE. CHANGES IN GUIDANCE WILL
BE MONITORED PRIOR TO 00Z TAF ISSUANCE FOR THIS POTENTIAL.
OVERALL, CONFIDENCE IN CIG RESTRICTIONS IS LOW, BUT NON-ZERO.
ALSO CANNOT RULE OUT SHALLOW RIVER FOG MAINLY NEAR AGS/OGB
AROUND DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. AFTER THIS, WINDS PICK UP TO AROUND
6-10 KTS BY THE LATE MORNING WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 15-18 KTS
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT AVIATION CONCERNS
THROUGH THE WEEK. A FEW TO SCATTERED HIGH VFR CLOUDS MAY MOVE IN
THROUGH THURSDAY DUE TO ONSHORE FLOW, BUT OTHERWISE REMAINING
DRY.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...EC
AVIATION...DH
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