144
FXUS62 KCAE 201737
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
137 PM EDT TUE OCT 20 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ONLY MINOR CHANGES IN THE OVERALL FORECAST. AVIATION DISCUSSION
FOR THE 18Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK
WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL.
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON HAVE GENERALLY CLIMBED INTO THE
LOWER 70S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT THE TEMPS TO RISE
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S BEFORE COOLING OFF THIS EVENING.
TONIGHT LOOKS TO BE ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT, BUT MAYBE NOT AS COOL
AS LAST NIGHT, AS HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHT SURFACE WINDS ARE
ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED, WITH TEMPS LIKELY DIPPING INTO THE MID 40S
FOR MANY PLACES.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH ACROSS DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE IN THE SYNOPTIC EVOLUTION OVER THE NEXT 4-6 DAYS.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR NORMAL, IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S OVER
THE COMING DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK BY THE WEEKEND, A
DEEP TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DIG IN ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS
SHOULD AMPLIFY THE DOWNSTREAM FEATURES, BEING THE RIDGE OVER
THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY AND TROUGHING ACROSS THE EAST.
INCREASED TROUGHING THIS WEEKEND SHOULD YIELD TEMPERATURES
PERHAPS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL, POTENTIALLY AS SOON AS FRIDAY.
DESPITE THE RELATIVELY MINOR UNCERTAINTY IN TEMPERATURES LATE IN
THE WEEK, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THE AIRMASS CONTINUES TO
BE QUITE MOISTURE-STARVED WITH LREF PROBABILITIES FOR DEWPOINTS
REACHING ABOVE 50F BELOW 20% MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
GREATER UNCERTAINTY IN THE CURRENT PATTERN DOES NOT ENTER UNTIL
EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT EVEN THEN, CHANCES FOR DEEPER MOISTURE TO
ADVECT INTO THE REGION REMAINS LOW.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL KEEP NORTHERLY FLOW IN
PLACE WITH CLEAR SKIES. WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 7 TO 10 KNOTS
OUT OF THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AROUND SUNSET. WE CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT A
FEW GUSTS NEAR 16 KTS THROUGH 21Z, BUT THEY SHOULD BE INTERMITTENT.
FOG NOT EXPECTED TO BE A CONCERN GIVEN THE VERY DRY AIR MASS IN
PLACE.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SIGNIFICANT AVIATION CONCERNS
UNLIKELY THROUGH SATURDAY.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...29
AVIATION...73
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