711
FXUS62 KCAE 152309
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
709 PM EDT SAT AUG 15 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. AVIATION
DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 00Z UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. THE HIGH HEAT AND HUMIDITY CONTINUES WITH TEMPERATURES
LIKELY PEAKING ON MONDAY.
- 2. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION
EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
1. THE HIGH HEAT AND HUMIDITY CONTINUES WITH TEMPERATURES
LIKELY PEAKING ON MONDAY.
THE HIGH HEAT AND HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE
EARLY PART OF THE WORK WEEK DESPITE WEAKENING UPPER RIDGING.
TEMPERATURES COULD BE SLIGHTLY COOLER SUNDAY, THUS HEAT INDEX
VALUES COULD BE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN PREVIOUS FEW DAYS.
HOWEVER, VALUES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO FLIRT WITH OUR CRITERIA
OF 108 TOMORROW. THAT ALONG WITH THE FACT THAT THIS HAS BEEN A
PROLONGED STRETCH OF ABNORMALLY HOT CONDITIONS, DECIDED TO
EXTEND THE HEAT ADVISORY THROUGH 8 PM SUNDAY. ON MONDAY, MODEL
GUIDANCE SHOWS ANOMALOUSLY HIGH 850MB TEMPERATURES PERHAPS
EXCEEDING 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL YIELDING SURFACE TEMPERATURES
IN THE UPPER 90S AND LOWER 100S. THE HUMIDITY IS UNLIKELY TO
RELENT MEANING ANOTHER DAY OF DANGEROUS HEAT INDEX VALUES TO
START THE NEW WORK WEEK. A TROUGH DURING THE MID TO LATE PORTION
OF NEXT WEEK MAY FINALLY BREAK THE THREAT OF EXTREME HEAT WITH
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO SEASONAL VALUES. THE BOTTOM LINE
IS WHETHER YOU ARE OUTDOORS FOR WORK OR PLAY, CONTINUE TO TAKE
APPROPRIATE PRECAUTIONS AND LIMIT TIME IN DIRECT SUNLIGHT DURING
PEAK HEATING HOURS.
2. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION
EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND.
THE FLATTENING RIDGE SHOULD RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS THIS WEEKEND.
AS HAS BEEN THE CASE DURING THE LAST FEW DAYS, ANY ROBUST
CONVECTION HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THE
LACK OF WINDS ALOFT MEANS THAT LOCALIZED FLOODING IS ALSO
POSSIBLE, PRIMARILY IF RAIN FALLS OVER NORMALLY FLOOD PRONE
AREAS. GUIDANCE HAS KEPT THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION LOW ON
MONDAY AND THIS APPEARS TO BE DUE TO THE HIGHLY ANOMALOUS 850MB
TEMPERATURES MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS SECTION. THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN SUFFICIENT CAPPING OVER THE FORECAST AREA FOR MONDAY,
WITH ANY RAIN ARRIVING TOWARDS EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST POTENTIALLY ERODING THE CAP. MORE TYPICAL
AUGUST RAIN CHANCES ARE THEN ANTICIPATED, PERHAPS INCREASING
DURING THE MID TO LATE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK WHEN A TROUGH MAY
SET UP OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH MIDNIGHT, THEN POTENTIAL FOR
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS LATE TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS EVENING HAVE REMAINED MOSTLY
JUST OUTSIDE OF TAF LOCATIONS. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH
SUNSET, THEN ANY ACTIVITY SHOULD BE DIMINISHING. EXPECTING
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS THEN OVERNIGHT, THEN POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR STORM SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME CONFIDENCE IN
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY IS LOWER THAN PAST FEW DAYS, AND WILL LEAVE
OUT MENTION OF ANY PROB30 GROUPS FOR NOW. BIGGER ISSUE LATE
TONIGHT THAT COULD BRING RESTRICTIONS IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME
PATCH TO AREAL FOG FORMATION TOWARDS SUNRISE. GUIDANCE IS
CONSISTENT WITH BRINGING MVFR VISIBILITIES AFTER 06Z AT ALL
SITES, WITH POTENTIAL FOR IFR BETWEEN 10Z-13Z. DUE TO MULTIPLE
MODELS SHOWING THAT, ALONG WITH THE LAMP PROBABILITIES, WILL
BEGIN 5SM AT 06Z, WITH TEMPO PERIOD FROM 10Z-13Z DOWN TO 2SM.
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE IMPROVING AFTER 13Z, WITH VFR EXPECTED FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY OUTSIDE OF ANY OF THOSE ISOLATED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD MAINLY CALM,
TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...DIURNAL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR SCZ016-018-020>022-
025>031-035-037-038-041-115-116-135>137.
GA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR GAZ040-063>065-077.
DISCUSSION...29
AVIATION...73
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