333
FXUS62 KCAE 011740
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
140 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ADDED MENTION OF ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS ALONG AND EAST OF
I-20 CORRIDOR TODAY. AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 18Z TAF
ISSUANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. GENERALLY DRY WEATHER AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES OVER 100F THIS WEEK.
- 2. ACTIVE WEATHER AND DECREASING TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE THIS
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1. GENERALLY DRY WEATHER AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES OVER 100F THIS
WEEK.
A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EASTWARD
THROUGH THE WEEK BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST BY
THURSDAY. BOTH DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE REMAIN IN
GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS EVOLUTION. WITH THE RIDGE CENTERED OVER
THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON, THERE IS AN
OPPORTUNITY FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM (10-15% CHANCE) THIS
AFTERNOON FOR THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. MOST
LOCATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY, HOWEVER. NAEFS GUIDANCE
INDICATES 500-MB HEIGHTS WILL APPROACH THE CLIMATOLOGICAL MAX
INTO THURSDAY BEFORE DECREASING SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE WEEKEND.
WITH THE RIDGE MOVING MORE OVERHEAD, GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THE REST OF THE WEEK. THE MAIN CONCERN
REMAINS TO BE THE HEAT, WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE UPPER
90 EACH DAY. IN ADDITION, THE INCREASED HUMIDITY WILL RESULT IN
HEAT INDEX VALUES EXCEEDING 100F DURING THE AFTERNOONS THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR CONDITIONS TO
APPROACH HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA LATE IN THE WEEK, THOUGH THIS
WILL DEPEND LARGELY ON HOW WELL THE ATMOSPHERE MIXES EACH DAY.
REGARDLESS, HEAT-RELATED ILLNESSES WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE.
KEY MESSAGE 2. ACTIVE WEATHER AND DECREASING TEMPERATURES
POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND.
GLOBAL ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTS THE RIDGE WILL
RETROGRADE WESTWARD, ALLOWING A TROUGH TO DIG SOUTHWARD ALONG
THE EAST COAST. AS THIS OCCURS, CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. COOLER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AND DRIER
AIR ARE ALSO ANTICIPATED BEHIND THE FRONT.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF POSSIBLE PREDAWN
FOG AT FAVORED LOCATIONS.
UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD EASTWARD TOWARD THE CAROLINAS AND
SHOULD SUPPORT GENERALLY DRY AND HOT CONDITIONS. FAIR WEATHER
CUMULUS HAS DEVELOPED AND SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF
HEATING THIS EVENING. VARIABLE WINDS AROUND 5 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON SHOULD BECOME NEAR CALM OVERNIGHT. POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR
VSBYS AT FOG PRONE AGS/OGB DURING THE 08-12Z TIME FRAME SO
INCLUDED A TEMPO FOR THIS POSSIBILITY OTHERWISE CONFIDENCE TOO
LOW AT OTHER TERMINALS TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...EARLY MORNING RESTRICTIONS STILL
POSSIBLE DESPITE A DRIER OUTLOOK FOR THE WEEK. INCREASED CHANCES
OF RESTRICTIONS OVER THE WEEKEND WITH INCREASED CHANCES OF
CONVECTION WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...29
AVIATION...23
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