164
FXUS62 KCAE 192323
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
723 PM EDT WED AUG 19 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 00Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. INCREASING CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: INCREASING CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW AT LEAST IN THE NORTH
AND WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST, POOLING AHEAD OF A WEAK
BOUNDARY WITH PWATS AROUND 2 INCHES GENERALLY SOUTH OF I-20. WHILE
ISOLATED STORMS REMAINS POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTH AND EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON, CONVECTION WILL ONCE AGAIN BE LIMITED.
LATEST HREF INDICATES MOISTURE WILL MARGINALLY INCREASE THURSDAY
WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR ISOLATED AFTERNOON STORMS. THEN GLOBAL
ENSEMBLES FAVOR A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS
A SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS FAVORS DEEP SW
FLOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH A SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPING ALONG A BAROCLINIC ZONE NEAR THE FORECAST AREA. ENHANCED
SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND INCREASING PWAT VALUES TO NEAR OR ABOVE 2
INCHES FAVORS WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. WITH HIGHER THAN NORMAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR THE SEASON,
AND A CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS, ORGANIZED STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND HEIGHT FALLS COULD SUPPORT DAMAGING
WINDS AND SMALL HAIL ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN
MIDLANDS WHERE MOISTURE WILL BE DEEPER. AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS
SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY, PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF
FROM WEST TO EAST WITH DRIER MOVING INTO THE AREA.
OTHERWISE, IT WILL BE WARMER THAN NORMAL TODAY AND THURSDAY BUT WITH
DRIER AIR OVER THE REGION AND WEAKER RIDGING NO HEAT THRESHOLDS
SHOULD BE MET. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH
AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY BUT ANY DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL BE
ISOLATED AS TYPICAL FOR THE SEASON. COOLER WEATHER IS LIKELY NEXT
WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY.
ALL'S QUIET HERE IN THE MIDLANDS OF SC AND CSRA OF GA. PWS ARE
RELATIVELY LOW FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, RESULTING IN A BEAUTIFUL
AVIATION DAY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND ONLY A FEW FAIR WEATHER
CUMULUS. ANY CLOUDS THAT WERE OUT THERE ARE DIMINISHING NOW, AND
WHILE WE CAN'T RULE OUT A ROGUE THUNDERSTORM SIMILAR TO WHAT WE
SAW EAST OF OGB LAST NIGHT, IT CAN BE SAFELY SAID THAT THIS IS
UNLIKELY TO IMPACT ANY TAF SITE IF IT DOES GO UP. SOME MODEST
MOISTURE RETURN IS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH SOME LIGHT
SOUTHEASTERLIES AT 925 HPA AND THIS MAY RESULT IN ENOUGH
SURFACE MOISTURE TO YIELD GROUND FOG AT OGB. AS WE GET INTO
THURSDAY, MORE PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN PWS. GUIDANCE IS MIXED ON OVERALL RAIN
CHANCES BUT THOSE THAT DO SHOW STORMS DEVELOPING HOLD THEM OFF
UNTIL AROUND OR AFTER 00Z FRIDAY. SO ONLY MENTION AN INCREASE
IN CLOUD COVER TOMORROW AFTERNOON BUT PRECIP REMAINS UNLIKELY
UNTIL THE END OF THIS PERIOD, WITH VFR EXPECTED THROUGHOUT.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
LATE THURSDAY EVENING BUT RAIN CHANCES INCREASE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WITH SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD CONVECTION EXPECTED.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...96
AVIATION...PL
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