500
FXUS62 KCAE 180002
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
802 PM EDT MON AUG 17 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
REMOVED MENTION OF TODAY VERBIAGE FROM KEY MESSAGES. MONITORING A
COMPLEX OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.
THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING OUR AREA. AVIATION
DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 00Z UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. THE STRETCH OF DANGEROUS HEAT CONTINUES.
- 2. STORM COVERAGE MORE LIMITED AGAIN TOMORROW, WITH INCREASING
POTENTIAL LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: THE STRETCH OF DANGEROUS HEAT CONTINUES.
TOMORROW A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AND WHILE OVERALL
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SIMILAR, IT WILL LIKELY USHER IN SOME
SLIGHTLY DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA. HEAT INDICES WILL LIKELY STILL REMAIN ELEVATED,
ALTHOUGH HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAT AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF I-20 REMAIN
BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA SO HAVE LEFT THEM OUT OF ANY HEAT
PRODUCTS WITH THIS PACKAGE. BLENDED GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FAVOR MAX
HEAT INDICES AROUND 105F EACH DAY THROUGH FRIDAY SO WILL NEED TO
EVALUATE EACH DAY THE NEED FOR A POTENTIAL HEAT ADVISORY THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. REGARDLESS, SIGNIFICANT RELIEF FROM THE HEAT
REMAINS UNLIKELY UNTIL THE WEEKEND WHEN THE RIDGE FINALLY BREAKS
DOWN AND THERE WILL BE INCREASED CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.
KEY MESSAGE 2: STORM COVERAGE MORE LIMITED AGAIN TOMORROW, WITH
INCREASING POTENTIAL LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
ONLY A FEW SHOWERS MANAGED TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
MIDLANDS AND ARE STARTING TO DISSIPATE. WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR A
COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH NORTH CAROLINA, BUT THIS
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE PRIOR TO REACHING THE FORECAST
AREA.
SIMILAR CAPPING IS EXPECTED TOMORROW WHICH WILL LIMIT ANY CONVECTION
EVEN WITH SOME WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG A SURFACE FRONT. ISOLATED
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE WITH WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A ROBUST MID-LEVEL TROUGH
MOVING INTO THE EASTERN CONUS AND DEEP LAYER SOUTHWEST FLOW LEADING
TO INCREASED MOISTURE.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
EVENING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A FEW PASSING CUMULUS MOVING ACROSS
THE REGION. A COUPLE OF SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO REACH THE TERMINALS. WE ARE ALSO MONITORING A COMPLEX OF STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA BUT MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THIS CONVECTION DISSIPATING PRIOR TO
REACHING THE TERMINALS AND SHOULD ONLY RESULT IN HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS PASSING OVERHEAD. WINDS TONIGHT SHOULD BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE, PICKING UP AROUND MIDDAY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST. MORE ARE
CUMULUS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT TOMORROW
AFTERNOON OR EVENING, ESPECIALLY AT OGB.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...DIURNAL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
INCREASE EACH DAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR SCZ016-022-
027>031-035-037-038-041-135>137.
GA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR GAZ064-065-
077.
DISCUSSION...7
AVIATION...7
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