837
FXUS62 KCAE 110044
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
844 PM EDT SAT OCT 10 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE SEVERE AND FLOODING THREAT FOR THE NIGHT CONTINUES TO
DIMINISH. AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 00Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT, WITH SOME LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE.
- 2. DRY, WARM WEATHER FAVORED FOR NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT, WITH SOME LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE.
LATEST RADAR SHOWS A LINE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH
THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN MIDLANDS, WITH POCKETS OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN EMBEDDED IN THIS ACTIVITY. EXPECT THESE TO CONTINUE TO
MOVE NORTH NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SOME ADDITIONAL
PONDING ON ROADWAYS IS POSSIBLE, BUT THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT
CONTINUES TO DIMINISH.
THE TORNADO THREAT WE SAW THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IS ALSO
DIMINISHING AS WE LOSE DAYTIME DESTABILIZATION. HOWEVER, THERE
REMAINS RELATIVELY HIGH LOW-LEVEL SHEAR VALUES IN THE AREA, SO
CAN'T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A QUICK SPINUP FOR CELLS IN THE WARMER
SECTOR. THE WARMER SECTOR IS GENERALLY SOUTH OF I-20.
LOOKING UPSTREAM, ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY ALONG A COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL GEORGIA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TREKKING EASTWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT, BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY. ONCE THIS ACTIVITY
MOVES THROUGH, WE ARE EXPECTED TO DRY OUT FOR THE REST OF THE
DAY TOMORROW.
KEY MESSAGE 2: DRY, WARM WEATHER FAVORED FOR NEXT WEEK
GLOBAL ENSEMBLES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
WILL BUILD OVER THE DEEP SOUTH FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK. PWAT
VALUES BELOW 1.5 INCHES AND NAEFS 500 MB HEIGHTS AT OR ABOVE
THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR THE TIME OF YEAR SUPPORTS DRY WEATHER
WITH RISING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK.
HIGHS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK (TUE - THU); APPROACHING RECORD HIGHS.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY
MORNING BEFORE GRADUALLY IMPROVING.
WIDESPREAD IFR CEILINGS CONTINUE THIS EVENING, WITH A FEW BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE ALSO ANTICIPATED TO CONTINUE, BUT BREAKS IN THE RAIN
ARE ALSO LIKELY. THE LAST WAVE OF ACTIVITY SHOULD BE PAST THE
TERMINALS BY AROUND DAYBREAK. CEILINGS ARE FORECAST TO IMPROVE
AS THE ACTIVITY MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. WINDS OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST TRANSITION TO MORE SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT. THERE REMAINS
A CHANCE FOR LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR NEAR DAYBREAK. A FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA IN THE MORNING, CAUSING A
SHIFT TO MORE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
BECOME BREEZY, GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KTS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO IMPROVE LATER
ON SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR SCZ018-025-030-035-041-
135>137.
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ016-
020>022-026>031-035-037-038-041-115-116-135>137.
GA...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR GAZ040-063>065-077.
DISCUSSION...29/CJR
AVIATION...29
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