218
FXUS62 KCAE 312334
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
734 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
A PERIOD OF BREEZY WINDS THIS EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SEABREEZE. SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS EVENING WINDS DOWN. AVIATION
DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 00Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. ANY REMAINING SHOWERS TO DISSIPATE THIS EVENING.
- 2. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE THIS WEEKEND WITH A MORE TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME PATTERN RETURNING NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
- 1. ANY REMAINING SHOWERS TO DISSIPATE THIS EVENING.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FROM THIS AFTERNOON HAS ALL BUT
DISSIPATED THIS EVENING. ANY REMAINING ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
END IN THE NEXT HOUR. OUTSIDE OF THAT, A SEABREEZE IS WORKING
ITS WAY THROUGH THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA THIS EVENING. BREEZY WINDS
GUSTING UP TO 20 MPH AND IN INCREASE IN MOISTURE CAN BE
ANTICIPATED AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
- 2. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE THIS WEEKEND WITH A MORE TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME PATTERN RETURNING NEXT WEEK.
AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARD THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND INTO
NEXT WEEK. AS THEY DO, MOISTURE INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY,
ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS PWATS ARE FORECAST TO
TOP THE 2" MARK. HOWEVER, GUIDANCE KEEPS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO
THE WEST, KEEPING A MAIN TRIGGER FOR FOCUSED PRECIPITATION TO
OUR WEST AS WELL. ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES KEEP RELATIVELY LOW
(~10-20% DEPENDING ON MODEL SUITE) CHANCES OF GREATER THAN 2" OF
RAIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WITH THIS IN MIND, POPS WERE DROPPED BY
10-20 PERCENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS
HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING MORE SCATTERED CONVECTION AS
OPPOSED TO A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE EXPECTED
ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING TO SEE
LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OVER 2" AS ANY ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD
BE EFFICIENT RAIN MAKERS. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY MODELED SOUNDINGS
THAT SHOW A LONG SKINNY CAPE PROFILE. THERE IS ALSO AN
INVERTED-V INDICATED SUGGESTING A THREAT FOR STRONG WINDS FROM
ANY ROBUST CONVECTION. THIS IS ECHOED BY THE SPC DAY 3 SWO WHICH
SHOWS A MARGINAL (1/5) RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON SUNDAY ACROSS
THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA.
AFTER THE WEEKEND, MORE TYPICAL DIURNALLY DRIVEN ACTIVITY IS
ANTICIPATED THROUGH MID-WEEK AS RESIDUAL MOISTURE HANGS AROUND
THE AREA.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE RAIN-
STORMS CHANCES INCREASE.
DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST FOR THE TAF SITES WITH LIMITED MID-LOW
LEVEL CLOUD COVER. AN OUTFLOW-SEA BREEZE IS MOVING INLAND
QUICKLY AND CAUSING SOME GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS,
SO NOTED THAT IN A TEMPO THROUGH 02Z FOR ALL SITES. OTHERWISE
CALM, VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
WHEN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARRIVE. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST
CURRENTLY IN IMPACTS AT DNL, AGS, AND AIK BEFORE THE STORMS
WEAKEN FURTHER EAST. PROB30 GROUPS INCLUDED FOR NOW, BUT TEMPO
AND PREDOMINANT GROUPS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED IN FUTURE TAFS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RAIN AND RESTRICTIONS BECOME
INCREASINGLY LIKELY LATER THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...7/29
AVIATION...42
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