800
FXUS62 KCAE 280020
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
820 PM EDT SUN SEP 27 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 00Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES
INITIALLY NEAR NORMAL WARMING BACK ABOVE NORMAL BY THE MID
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK WITH
TEMPERATURES INITIALLY NEAR NORMAL WARMING BACK ABOVE NORMAL BY
THE MID WEEK.
LITTLE HAS CHANGED IN THE OUTLOOK THROUGH AT LEAST THE MID
WEEK. THE UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED NOR'EASTER IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO MEANDERING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT WITH LOW
LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW KEEPING DRY AIR IN PLACE. THIS SHOULD
KEEP MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE AREA, BRINGING MORNING LOWS
TOWARD THE LOW TO MID 50S NEAR DAYBREAK. IT WOULDN'T BE TOO
SURPRISING TO SEE SOME LOCATIONS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 40S
ONCE AGAIN MONDAY MORNING. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WARM
TO AROUND NORMAL, IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. HEADING THROUGH THE
WORK WEEK, A BLOCKING PATTERN LIKELY PERSISTS THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY AS A STRONG TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE SW CONUS, INTERACTING
WITH REMNANT MOISTURE FROM WHAT IS CURRENTLY HURRICANE POLO.
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT RIDGING SHOULD
GRADUALLY SHIFT OVERHEAD WITH ASSOCIATED WARMING TEMPERATURES
DURING THE MID WEEK WHERE TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S
TO LOWER 90S WILL BE POSSIBLE. IN GENERAL, THIS PATTERN FAVORS
CONTINUED MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS, THOUGH DEEPER MOISTURE IS
FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WORK BACK TOWARD THE REGION DURING THE MID
TO LATE WEEK WITH PWAT'S POTENTIALLY EXCEEDING 1". BY THE LATE
WEEK AND INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND, THE RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE HIGH MAY BECOME INCREASINGLY SUPPRESSED AS THE SW CONUS
TROUGH PUSHES EASTWARD, POSSIBLY BRINGING BACK SHOWER/STORM
CHANCES.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD.
OUTSIDE OF A FEW PASSING HIGH CIRRUS, EXPECT SKC TO CONTINUE.
HIGH PRESSURE AND A VERY DRY AIRMASS WILL PROMOTE VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT ALL TAF SITES. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD SO HAVE KEPT
TAFS AT ONE LINE.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MOSTLY VFR IN THE EXTENDED WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DH/29
AVIATION...96
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