678
FXUS62 KCAE 250224
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1024 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2020
SYNOPSIS
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWEST FROM NORTH CAROLINA
TONIGHT AND BECOME STATIONARY NEAR THE AREA MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH FROM THE MID ATLANTIC AS A WEAK TROUGH
DEVELOPS ALONG THE COAST RESULTING IN ONSHORE FLOW. THIS WILL
LEAD TO UNSETTLED AND COOLER WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEK. A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA NEXT WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/
BOUNDARIES CURRENTLY COLLIDING FROM KERSHAW DOWN TO BURKE COUNTY
AS OF 830 PM, CREATING THE NECESSARY SURFACE CONVERGENCE WHERE
THE LAST POCKET OF INSTABILITY EXISTS TO PROVIDE A COUPLE MORE
HOURS OF THUNDERSTORMS, ONE OR TWO LOCALLY STRONG. MID LEVELS
REMAIN WARM, SO THE CHANCES OF A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM, WHILE
NONZERO, ARE NOT VERY GREAT. SOME PEA SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS
TO 45 MPH APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN THREAT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE EVENING, ALONG WITH SOME MOMENTARILY SLOW TRAFFIC DUE TO
HEAVY RAIN.
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY LINGER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH
PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE, RESULTING IN ANOTHER MILD NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70. THERE COULD BE SOME
PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT, BUT CURRENTLY THINK IT WILL BE PATCHY
AND NOT DOWN BELOW 1 MILE IN MOST PLACES.
SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN STATES WILL RIDGE INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST.
UPPER RIDGE OFFSHORE EXTENDING INTO EASTERN SC. ONSHORE FLOW
INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA. MOISTURE APPEARS TO DEEPEN ACROSS THE
AREA. SEVERAL WEAK SHORT WAVES ROTATING NORTH AROUND RIDGE WILL
PROVIDE LIFT ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON. STRONGEST LIFT AND DEEPER
MOISTURE ACROSS THE CSRA ALTHOUGH ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY INCREASE IN
THE AFTERNOON RESULTING IN MORE SHOWERS IN THE PIEDMONT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS AIR MASS WEAKLY UNSTABLE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. ISENTROPIC LIFT OVERNIGHT RESULTING IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS. HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID
80S. LOWS IN THE 60S.
TUESDAY...MODELS SUGGESTING IN-SITU WEDGE CONDITIONS DEVELOPING
DURING THE DAY. MOISTURE DEEPENS AS EAST FLOW/ISENTROPIC LIFT
INCREASES. A 20 TO 25-KNOT LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS DURING THE
AFTERNOON INCREASING MOISTURE TRANSPORT. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO DEEP LOW DEVELOPING IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
HIGHEST POPS INDICATED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA. MOS
GUIDANCE TEMPS TRENDING COOLER..SO HAVE INDICATED HIGHS IN THE MID
70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS
MIDWEST UPPER LOW MOVES SLOWLY EAST. DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS
ACROSS THE AREA AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AFFECTING THE AREA NEXT
WEEKEND. COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR MID WEEK THEN WARMING TREND AND
HIGHER CHANCE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND.
AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO
LINGER UNTIL AROUND 04Z. RAIN COOLED AIR MAY PROMOTE
FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT. SOME MIXED SIGNALS IN
GUIDANCE. WILL INDICATE TEMPO GROUPS FOR MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS,
EXCEPT IFR AT FOG PRONE AGS AND OGB. SCATTERED DIURNAL
CONVECTION EXPECTED MONDAY. FOR NOW, WILL HANDLE WITH VCTS AFTER
19Z.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS AND SCATTERED MAINLY DIURNAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
HYDROLOGY
RECENT RAINFALL AMOUNTS RANGED FROM 3 TO 8 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE
UPPER AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE RIVER BASINS. RIVER HAVE
CRESTED THOUGH FLOODING EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK ON
THE PEE DEE, CONGAREE AND WATEREE RIVERS.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page