093
FXUS62 KCAE 141027
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
627 AM EDT WED OCT 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 12Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. DRY, WARM WEATHER FAVORED THROUGH THE WEEK.
- 2. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH THROUGH
THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT, USHERING NICE AUTUMNAL WEATHER.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: DRY, WARM WEATHER FAVORED THROUGH THE WEEK.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAINING
IN PLACE AS STRONG, ANOMALOUS UPPER RIDGING IS FORECAST TO
BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND LINGER OVER THE
AREA UNTIL LATER THIS WEEK. NAEFS 500 HPA HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE NEAR THE MODEL CLIMATE'S MAX FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. WITH A
RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE AND SUNNY SKIES, WE ARE LOOKING
AT NEAR RECORD HIGHS ACROSS THE AREA STARTING TODAY AND INTO
FRIDAY. HIGHS OF 86F-90F LOOK LIKELY IN THIS PERIOD, WITH LOWS
LIKELY REBOUNDING A BIT INTO THE LOW 60S GIVEN RELATIVELY LOW
DEWPOINTS FOR SUCH A WARM AIRMASS. THE EFI VALUES ARE SITTING
AROUND 0.75-0.85 EACH DAY, CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT ANOMALOUS
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW AND COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT SHOULD
YIELD IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR A RECORD TO BREAK.
KEY MESSAGE 2: A STRONG COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH THROUGH
THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT, USHERING NICE AUTUMNAL WEATHER.
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
SWEEP ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HEADING INTO THIS WEEKEND. A DEEP
TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL US OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AND BEGIN MARCHING EASTWARD, PUSHING THE FRONT
ALONG WITH IT. THIS WILL OCCUR IN CONJUNCTION WITH A STRONG,
ANOMALOUS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING OUT OF THE UPPER MIDWEST
AND INTO THE MID- ATLANTIC BY THIS WEEKEND. MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES THAT IT SHOULD BE A RELATIVELY DRY
FRONT WITH ONLY SPRINKLES POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. THERE IS STILL SOME MINOR SPREAD IN THE TIMING OF THE
FRONT BUT IN GENERAL IT IS FORECAST TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA
EASILY ON FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH A MUCH WELCOMED COOL DOWN FOLLOWING
IN ITS WAKE. GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED FOR HIGHS AND LOWS
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A RESULT, WITH WELL- BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS IN THE 60S ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, BUMPING BACK UP
INTO THE LOW 70S BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK CHILLY,
WITH 40S LIKELY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. OUR COOLER SPOTS MAY
FLIRT WITH THE 30S GIVEN THE LOW DEWPOINT AIRMASS! ADDITIONALLY,
EXPECT IT TO BE BREEZY ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE EFI
WIND GUST SIGNAL IS PRETTY GOOD (~0.7-0.75) FOR SATURDAY, WITH
GUSTS OF 30+ MPH EXPECTED BEHIND SUCH A STRONG FRONT.
AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR OUTSIDE OF POTENTIAL EARLY MORNING PATCHY FOG.
SOME BRIEF SUNRISE MORNING FOG AT OUR FOG-PRONE SITES IS
POSSIBLE AND ALONG THE RIVERS, BUT HAVE KEPT THE TAFS VFR DUE
TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE EXACT TIMEFRAME AND OVERALL IMPACTS;
THE TYPICAL MORNING MIFG IS MOVING THROUGH OGB-AGS NOW SO
INCLUDED A VFR TEMPO MENTION. LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR/DRY
CONDITIONS CONTINUE WEDNESDAY WITH WINDS GENERALLY OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST, BUT VARYING FROM SOUTH TO WEST..
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH PRECIPITATION IS UNLIKELY,
BREEZY W/SW WINDS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY SHIFTING TO NORTHERLIES
SATURDAY.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ND
AVIATION...42
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