233
FXUS62 KCAE 290651
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
251 AM EDT WED APR 29 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MINOR TIMING ADJUSTMENTS TO KEY MESSAGE 1.
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 06Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. ROUNDS OF RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH MID-WEEK. A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
- 2. CONFIDENCE INCREASING IN MODERATE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: ROUNDS OF RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH MID-WEEK. A FEW
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
WITH UPPER RIDGING FLATTENING ACROSS THE REGION, A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL ROLL OVER THE RIDGE AND INTO THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL RAMP UP QUICKLY FROM WEST
TO EAST DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS LINGERING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY IN ALABAMA MOVE INTO THE FA. WHILE
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BY THE TIME IT ARRIVES, MUCH LIKE
YESTERDAY THERE COULD BE A FEW LEFTOVER THUNDERSTORMS. CONDITIONS
ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN OUR FORECAST
AREA THIS MORNING BUT TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED. TOTAL RAIN
AMOUNTS WILL LARGELY DEPEND ON HOW MUCH OF THE DEEPER CONVECTION
CAN HOLD TOGETHER BUT IN GENERAL WE SHOULD SEE AROUND A QUARTER
OF AN INCH OF RAIN WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.
LOOKING AHEAD TO THIS AFTERNOON, THERE IS A LOW THREAT OF SEVERE
WEATHER WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY LOCATED IN THE PEE DEE AND
CATAWBA REGIONS. AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA
FROM THE NORTH, ADDITIONAL CONVECTION DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY. THE SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK MAINTAINS A MARGINAL (1/5) RISK
FOR SEVERE WEATHER BOTH NORTH AND SOUTH OF OUR CWA. THE SEVERE
THREAT IN OUR FA WILL LARGELY HINGE ON IF WE CAN CLEAR OUT
ENOUGH BEHIND THE MORNING ACTIVITY TO PRODUCE SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY AND POPS MAY NEED TO INCREASE SHOULD WE RECEIVE MORE
SUNSHINE THAN EXPECTED. IF DESTABILIZATION OCCURS, THERE WILL
BE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE PRIMARY
HAZARDS OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, THOUGH A TORNADO
OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA
BORDER.
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN LATE TONIGHT AND
INTO THURSDAY MORNING. MUCH LIKE PREVIOUS NIGHTS, THE EVOLUTION
OF THIS CONVECTION TO OUR WEST WILL DICTATE THE THUNDERSTORM
RISK (WHICH SHOULD BE SUB-SEVERE), HOW MUCH RAIN THE FA
RECEIVES, AND WHICH AREAS WILL GET ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. OVERALL, THESE THREE BATCHES OF RAIN
WILL NOT END THE ONGOING DROUGHT BUT ANY RAINFALL WILL ASSIST.
KEY MESSAGE 2: CONFIDENCE INCREASING IN MODERATE RAINFALL FOR
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO FAVOR BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE US FROM LATE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. NAEFS IVT PERCENTILES
HAVE INCREASED TO 99.5 OF CLIMATOLOGY, WITH HIGHEST VALUES IN THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS INDICATES THE POTENTIAL
FOR A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL FROM LATE FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. MODELS ARE STARTING TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE
TIMING OF THE RAINFALL AND TRACK OF THE LOW ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST. THAT HAS LED TO A JUMP IN PROBABILITIES FOR MODERATE
RAINFALL. THE 25TH PERCENTILE FROM THE NBM IS NOW UP TO 0.25 TO
0.5 INCHES FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-20 WITH MEANS CLOSER TO 1 TO
1.5 INCHES AREA WIDE (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY TOTALS).
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE, BUT RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED LATER
THIS MORNING AS A BATCH OF RAIN MOVES INTO THE AREA.
WINDS HAVE BECOME FAIRLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS CIRRUS
OVERSPREADS THE AREA WITH PATCHY STRATUS SEEN AT TIMES. THESE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE COMING 2-3 HOURS
BEFORE RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE IN BETWEEN 08-11Z
GENERALLY AS A BATCH OF CONVECTION CURRENTLY ACROSS EASTERN AL
CONTINUES EASTWARD. MVFR TO IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
ACTIVITY AS WELL AS POSSIBLE VSBY RESTRICTIONS. AT THIS TIME,
THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS FAIRLY LOW SO HAVE LEFT
THUNDER OUT OF THE TAF AT THE MOMENT. RAIN CHANCES LIKELY END
FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 16-19Z, WITH RESTRICTIONS LASTING
UNTIL THEN AS WELL. BETTER MIXING THEN IS EXPECTED INTO THE
AFTERNOON WITH 6-10 KT WESTERLY WINDS GUSTING TOWARD 15-18 KTS
AND A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS. SCT TO BKN MID TO HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AND WINDS
GRADUALLY WEAKEN THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. ANOTHER SHOT OF
RAIN AND POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED JUST AFTER THIS TAF
PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PERIODS OF RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WITH MORE RAIN CHANCES,
ESPECIALLY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...7
AVIATION...DH
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page