919
FXUS62 KCAE 090534
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
134 AM EDT WED SEP 9 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ANOTHER DRY DAY IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY WITH RAIN CHANCES
INCREASING AND PEAKING THIS WEEKEND. AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED
FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY. RAIN CHANCES
INCREASE THURSDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY. RAIN CHANCES
INCREASE THURSDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES MOVING OFFSHORE TODAY, WHICH
WILL COMBINE WITH STRENGTHENING UPPER RIDGING TO PRODUCE
GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY. FORTUNATELY IT LOOKS
LIKE MOST, IF NOT ALL, OF OUR CWA SHOULD SEE ANOTHER DRY DAY
WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. TEMPERATURES
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY SHOULD WARM INTO THE LOWER TO MID 90S.
INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL LIKELY PUSH HEAT INDEX VALUES
ABOVE 100 DEGREES DURING PEAK HEATING BUT STILL BELOW HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA. MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY RETURN TO THE REGION,
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES DURING THE LATE WEEK PERIOD. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY, ALTHOUGH
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE CONTINUED CAPPING ALOFT WHICH MAY
RESTRICT CONVECTION TO THE COASTAL PLAIN, SPARING MUCH OF OUR
FA. THIS CHANGES FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND WHEN A WEAKNESS IN
THE RIDGE AND HIGHER PWATS FAVOR MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION,
THOUGH THE SEVERE THREAT APPEARS LOW AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 24HR FORECAST
PERIOD.
UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO EXPAND EAST INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES WITH A DRIER AIR MASS IN PLACE. OUTSIDE OF SOME PASSING
HIGHER CLOUDS TONIGHT, LITTLE AVIATION CONCERNS AS FOG/STRATUS
IS NOT EXPECTED. THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT MORE OFFSHORE
TODAY ALLOWING FOR EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC WHICH MAY
SUPPORT SCT-BKN STRATOCUMULUS FAVORING OGB/AGS/DNL, ALTHOUGH
CIGS EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER
LATE AFTERNOON BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME SO WILL NOT
INCLUDE IN THIS FORECAST. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS SHOULD PICK
UP FROM THE EAST AROUND 7 TO 10 KNOTS BY 15Z THEN DIMINISH AGAIN
AROUND SUNSET.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...DRY THROUGH MID-WEEK BEFORE DIURNAL
STORM CHANCES RETURN IN THE LATER PART OF THE WEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...7
AVIATION...23
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