741
FXUS62 KCAE 061735
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
135 PM EDT SUN JUL 6 2025
SYNOPSIS
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHANTAL IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTH ACROSS NC
THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT WITH IMPACTS DIMINISHING ACROSS THE
AREA. WHILE DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE, TEMPERATURES
REBOUND TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS TO BEGIN THE WEEK WITH DIURNALLY
DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME DECREASE IN HIGH
TEMPERATURES IS POSSIBLE LATER IN THE WEEK AS WEAK UPPER
TROUGHING MOVES IN FROM THE WEST AND RAIN CHANCES INCREASE EVER
SO SLIGHTLY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHANTAL WILL BE MOVING OUT OF THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
MIDLANDS AND INTO THE PEE DEE REGION.
SINCE THE PREVIOUS UPDATE, CHANTAL HAS WEAKENED TO A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION AND CAN NOW BE SEEN MOVING ACROSS THE SC/NC BORDER
WITH THE CENTER OF THE CIRCULATION OVER MARLBORO AND DILLON
COUNTIES IN SC AS IT BEGINS ITS MORE NORTHERLY PUSH FROM ITS
PREVIOUS NNW MOTION. DUE TO THIS, THE MAIN CIRCULATION IS JUST
EAST OF EASTERN CHESTERFIELD COUNTY AND THUS, WHILE SOME PERIODS
OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN COULD BE POSSIBLE OVER THE COMING
HOURS, THIS CHANCE IS DECLINING WITH CHANTAL MOVING INTO NC AND
THE BETTER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE MAIN CIRCULATION
MOVING WITH IT TOWARD THE NORTH. A RATHER SHARP PWAT GRADIENT IS
SEEN ACROSS THE CWA WHERE PWAT'S AS HIGH AS 2.4" ARE SEEN NEAR
CHESTERFIELD COUNTY, BUT QUICKLY DROP TO 1.6-1.7" INTO THE CSRA.
SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUD COVER FROM CHANTAL IS SEEN ACROSS
MUCH OF THE FA, AND THIS HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO WARM
QUICKER AS YOU MOVE TOWARD THE SW AWAY FROM THE SYSTEM AND
ENOUGH DIURNAL INSTABILITY TO BUILD FOR CHANTAL AND ITS MID-
LEVEL CIRCULATION TO FORCE SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY EAST OF
I-26. THIS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY EAST OF THE
CSRA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING, AS SUPPORTED BY
CURRENT RADAR AND THE 12Z HREF MEMBERS, BEFORE TAPERING OFF
TONIGHT AS FORCING FULLY LEAVES THE AREA AND PWAT'S FALL CLOSER
TO AVERAGE INTO MONDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- A RETURN OF THE HEAT TO START OFF THE WEEK.
- ISOLATED OR SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE.
THE BEGINNING OF THE NEW WEEK SHOULD FEATURE HOT TEMPERATURES WITH
HEAT INDICES AROUND 100-105 DEGREES. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO THE
UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WHILE THE BERMUDA HIGH
REMAINS ANCHORED OFFSHORE. WE WON'T SEE MUCH DECREASE IN MOISTURE
LEVELS EVEN WITH CHANTAL DEPARTING THE REGION, WITH PW VALUES
EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOMEWHAT SEASONAL AROUND 105-120% OF NORMAL.
GUIDANCE WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR HIGHER HEAT INDEX VALUES
AND THE POTENTIAL NEED FOR HEAT HEADLINES EARLY THIS WEEK. WITH
MOISTURE REMAINING IN PLACE AND SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH MUCH
OF THE COLUMN, A RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS TO BE EXPECTED IN RESPONSE TO
THE STRONG DAYTIME HEATING. SHEAR AND THEREFORE STORM ORGANIZATION
WILL BE LIMITED, KEEPING THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER
LOW.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- A SLIGHT BREAK IN THE HEAT FROM MID-WEEK ONWARD.
- SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED.
ENSEMBLES SUGGEST WEAKENING OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND CONTINUATION OF
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION. A FEW WEAK SHORTWAVES ARE
PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE MID LEVEL FLOW AS WELL, PROVIDING BETTER
SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION IN THE PRESENCE OF CONTINUED DEEP MOISTURE
(PW VALUES >1.9"). AT THE SURFACE, THE REGION MAY SEE THE RETURN OF
LEE-SIDE TROUGHING EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS, LEADING TO SLIGHTLY
HIGHER RAINFALL CHANCES EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ADDITIONALLY,
WE'LL WATCH FOR ANY POTENTIAL BOUNDARY COLLISIONS AS A RESULT OF THE
SEABREEZE WORKING INLAND. HEIGHT DECREASES WILL ALLOW AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES TO DECREASE SLIGHTLY INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S, WHICH
SHOULD ALSO HELP HEAT INDICES RETREAT FROM WIDESPREAD TRIPLE
DIGITS.
AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE, WITH PERIODIC MVFR RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
ISOLD-SCT -SHRA INTO EARLY THIS EVENING, PARTICULARLY FOR
CAE/CUB/OGB AS TD CHANTAL CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY FROM THE REGION
TO THE NORTH. CIGS HAVE RETURNED TO VFR WITH SCT-BKN CLOUD
BASES AROUND 3.5K-4.5K FT MSL. PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS ARE
THEREFORE POSSIBLE WITH ANY -SHRA THAT IMPACT THE TERMINALS,
THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOWER AT AGS/DNL. ALL SITES SHOULD SEE
CONDITIONS IMPROVE GRADUALLY THIS EVENING, AND VFR IS THEN
EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH THE
RETURN OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. WINDS WILL BE NWLY-NLY 8-12 KTS
WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS THROUGH AROUND 07/00Z WHEN THEY SHOULD
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM. HIGH CLOUDS THEN EXPECTED ON
MONDAY WITH SWLY WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF DIURNALLY
DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE COMING WEEK WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
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