061
FXUS62 KCAE 101044
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
644 AM EDT MON AUG 10 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 12Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. ISOLATED DIURNAL STORMS POSSIBLE EACH DAY THIS WEEK, WITH
DIMINISHING CHANCES MIDWEEK. A STRONG STORM CANNOT BE RULED
OUT.
- 2. INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED THIS WEEK,
ESPECIALLY BY THE MID TO LATE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
- 1. ISOLATED DIURNAL STORMS POSSIBLE EACH DAY THIS WEEK, WITH
DIMINISHING CHANCES MIDWEEK. A STRONG STORM CANNOT BE RULED
OUT.
THERE HAS BEEN MINIMAL CHANGE WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE IN
TERMS OF RAIN/STORM CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEK. MAINTENANCE OF
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AMIDST ROBUST HEATING EACH DAY
IS EXPECTED TO YIELD SEASONABLE TO STRONG INSTABILITY DURING THE
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WEAK EMBEDDED PERTURBATION MAY
AID IN BRINGING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE COVERAGE IS A BIT MORE SPOTTY TO ISOLATED DURING THE MID
TO LATE WEEK AS FORCING FROM MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES REMAINS JUST
NORTH OF FA. GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY INDICATE RISING MID LEVEL
HEIGHTS LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS RIDGING STRENGTHENS
OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVING INTO THE
GREAT LAKES, BUT THERE CONTINUES TO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR WEAK
TROUGHING MOVING IN THIS WEEKEND. THERE IS ALSO THE POSSIBILITY
FOR A DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO NEAR FA BY THIS WEEKEND AS
WELL. CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THIS HOWEVER, AS SEEN
IN THE GENEROUS SPREAD ACROSS THE LREF'S FOUR CLUSTERS. OVERALL,
THE POTENTIAL FOR INCREASED RAIN CHANCES EXISTS BY THIS
WEEKEND, BUT CONFIDENCE IN REALIZING THIS IS LOW AT THE MOMENT.
AS IS TYPICAL WITH OUR DIURNAL PULSE CONVECTION, A STRONG STORM
OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH THE RISK OF STRONG DOWNBURST
WINDS, BUT WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS UNLIKELY.
- 2. INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED THIS WEEK,
ESPECIALLY BY THE MID TO LATE WEEK.
STRENGTHENING RIDGING JUST TO OUR WEST THROUGH THE WEEK SHOULD
AID IN BRINGING A WARMING TREND WITH 500MB HEIGHTS PEAKING AT
THE NAEFS 97.5TH PERCENTILE LATE IN THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES
LIKELY REACH THE MID TO UPPER 90S EACH DAY TUESDAY THROUGH AT
LEAST FRIDAY. PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE PERIPHERY OF
A BERMUDA HIGH SHOULD ALSO AID IN KEEPING PWAT'S NEAR 2" AND
SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. WITH THE EXPECTED LOWER
COVERAGE OF DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY, CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN
HEAT INDICES ABOVE 100F DURING THIS PERIOD. THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAT INDICES ABOVE 105F AND POSSIBLY NEARING ADVISORY CRITERIA
(108F) INCREASE DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK WITH LREF
PROBABILITIES FOR INDICES ABOVE 105F BETWEEN 30- 50% ON THURSDAY
BEFORE INCREASING TO 50-65% FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS SIGNAL IS
ALSO SUPPORTED IN THE LATEST EC EFI WHERE VALUES OF 0.80-0.90
ARE SEEN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. IT IS WORTH NOTING THE UNCERTAINTY
IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND THUS RAIN CHANCES THIS WEEKEND
BRINGS LARGE NBM IQR SPREADS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY (8-10 DEGREES).
EITHER WAY, HOT/HUMID CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY MOST OF THIS WEEK
WITH INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN HEAT INDICES EXCEEDING 105F BY THE
MID TO LATE WEEK. WITH THE PERSISTENCE OF HEAT THIS WEEK, BE
SURE TO TAKE HEAT SAFETY PRECAUTIONS.
AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH SOME SPOTTY
STRATUS-FOG POSSIBLE AROUND SUNRISE THIS MORNING.
DEBRIS CLOUDS HAVE GENERALLY LIMITED FOG AND STRATUS FORMATION THIS
MORNING, BUT THERE ARE A FEW SPOTS IT HAS DEVELOPED WHERE MORE
CLEARING IS PRESENT. LINGERING STRATUS SHOULD IMPROVE AFTER 13Z. SFC
WINDS START THE DAY LIGHT AND INCREASE OUT OF THE S/SW AT 6-8 KTS
AFTER 15Z. ISOLATED AFTERNOON CONVECTION POSSIBLE AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH MODEL GUIDANCE FAVORING A LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING TIME FRAME. FOR NOW, COVERING THIS POTENTIAL WITH VCSH WHICH
CAN BE REFINED WITH LATER FORECASTS. ANY -SHRA/-TSRA DIMINISH THIS
EVENING WITH MAINLY HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS TONIGHT AS WINDS
DECREASE TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A SEASONAL PATTERN OF EARLY
MORNING RESTRICTIONS AND DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS IS LIKELY THROUGH
MUCH OF THE EXTENDED.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DH
AVIATION...EC
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