817
FXUS62 KCAE 230655
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
255 AM EDT THU JUL 23 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA TODAY, EVENTUALLY
SPREADING SOUTH TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED
FOR 06Z UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AS A SLOW-
MOVING FRONT APPROACHES. UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: RAIN CHANCES INCREASE ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AS A
SLOW-MOVING FRONT APPROACHES. UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES INTO
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
THE WELL ADVERTISED COLD FRONT HAS FINALLY REACHED NORTH
CAROLINA TONIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SOUTH TOWARDS THE
FORECAST AREA, EVENTUALLY STALLING NEAR OR OVER THE REGION. RAIN
CHANCES INCREASE TONIGHT NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA BORDER BUT
MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY TONIGHT. PROBABILITIES OF SEEING
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION BEFORE DAYBREAK ARE HIGHEST IN THE
FINGER OF LANCASTER COUNTY. SINCE THE BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO MOVE
SLOWER THAN DEPICTED IN MODEL GUIDANCE, MOST LOCATIONS SOUTH OF
I-20 SHOULD HAVE ANOTHER HOT, HUMID, AND DRY DAY. TODAY'S HEAVY
RAIN AND FLASH FLOOD RISK WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO THE
NORTHERN MIDLANDS, MAINLY CHESTERFIELD AND LANCASTER COUNTIES.
THIS SETUP INCREASES THE RISK FOR IMPACTFUL FLASH FLOODING OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS TRAIN ALONG THE
BOUNDARY WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE. HEAVY RAIN CHANCES
WILL INCREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH THE
FLOODING THREAT CONSEQUENTIALLY INCREASING EACH DAY ALONG THE
I-20 CORRIDOR. PWATS ARE FORECAST TO EXCEED 2" WITH DEEP SW
FLOW, RELATIVELY SKINNY CAPE PROFILES, AND DEEP WARM CLOUD
DEPTHS. WITH MEAN FLOW ORIENTED ALMOST PERFECTLY PARALLEL TO THE
BOUNDARY, TRAINING AND HIGHLY EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCING
CELLS REMAIN LIKELY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
WEEKEND BUT SHOULD BE MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE AS THE FRONT
DISSIPATES AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN NEXT WEEK.
WHILE LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20 SEE ANOTHER DAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S, THE CLOUDS AND RAIN ACROSS THE
NORTH SHOULD RESULT IN LOWER TEMPERATURES WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN
THE 80S. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE FA ON
FRIDAY AS THE CLOUDS AND RAIN SPREAD SOUTH.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR LIKELY THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH CONVECTION STAYING
NORTH OF THE TAF SITES.
OUTSIDE OF A FEW SHOWERS, THE FRONTAL ZONE REMAINS ACROSS NC
WITH NOTABLE PRECIP REMAINING NORTH OF CAE AND CUB. AS A RESULT,
NO RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT FROM ANY CONVECTION. THIS
WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE THE FRONT STARTS TO
SAG SOUTH, BUT EVEN THEN PRECIP CHANCES ARE LESS THAN 50% AT CAE
AND CUB, AND EVEN LOWER AT THE OTHER TAF SITES. SO PROB30
REMAINS APPROPRIATE FOR CAE AND CUB IN THE AFTERNOON, NO
MENTIONS ELSEWHERE. BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED BY MID-
MORNING WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS AFTER 18Z THROUGH 00Z. MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE
END OF THE PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS FROM SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY INTO THE WEEKEND FOR ALL TAF SITES.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...7
AVIATION...42
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