978
FXUS62 KCAE 281735
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
135 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN EXPECTED AS WE GET
INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH A FOCUS ON THE CENTRAL/WESTERN MIDLANDS
AND CSRA. UPDATED FOR THE 18Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN
EXPECTED BEGINNING FRIDAY IN THE CSRA AND THEN EXPANDING OVER
THE AREA INTO SATURDAY. FLASH FLOODING IS A THREAT DURING THIS
PERIOD.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE AGAIN EXPECTED BEGINNING FRIDAY IN THE CSRA AND THEN EXPANDING
OVER THE AREA INTO SATURDAY. FLASH FLOODING IS A THREAT DURING THIS
PERIOD.
A COMPLEX PATTERN OVER THE CONUS IS FORECAST TO YIELD ANOTHER
ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL, PARTICULARLY DURING THE FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT PERIOD ACROSS THE AREA. THIS IS FORECAST
TO GENERALLY BE DRIVEN BY MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES PASSING THROUGH
THE AREA ATOP A NORTHWARD LIFTING SURFACE FRONT AMIDST
IMPRESSIVE PWS OF 2.0"-2.2" ACROSS THE AREA.
BEFORE WE GET TO THAT, WE HAVE THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT (THAT IS
THE IMPETUS FOR MANY OF THE FORECAST DIFFICULTIES OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS) PUSHING THROUGH TODAY. THIS FEATURE IS CURRENTLY IN
THE PEE DEE REGION OF SC PER SURFACE OBSERVATIONS, SLOWLY
SINKING SOUTHWARD AT THE MOMENT. WHILE CAMS ARE MIXED ON OVERALL
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WITH THIS, WE HAVE SEEN CAMS STRUGGLE WITH
PLACEMENT AND COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS. THINKING IT IS REASONABLE TO EXPECT A BAND OF
SHOWERS/STORMS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THIS FRONT,
ESPECIALLY SINCE WE'LL LIKELY SEE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY ON THE
ORDER OF 2000 J/KG OF SBCAPE. SOME STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
BUT WILL BE RELIANT ON ROBUST, INITIAL UPDRAFTS FOR SOME PRECIP
LOADING & SUBSEQUENT DOWNBURSTS WITH THAT. THE OVERALL HEAVY
RAIN THREAT SEEMS LOWER THAN IT HAS THE PAST FEW DAYS. HOWEVER,
GIVEN HOW SATURATED THE SOILS ARE, IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH TO
CAUSE FLOODING ISSUES.
THIS FRONT IS FORECAST BY GUIDANCE TO CONTINUE SLIDING SOUTH
AND SOUTHWESTWARD AS THE DAY AND NIGHT GOES ALONG, WITH A PRETTY
LARGE SPREAD (ESPECIALLY FOR THIS TIMEFRAME) AMONGST GUIDANCE ON
WHERE THE FRONT ITSELF SETS UP. SOME CAMS HAVE THE FRONT PUSHING
CLEAR INTO CENTRAL GEORGIA BY MIDDAY FRIDAY, WHICH I SUSPECT IS
UNLIKELY. THE SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE NE US IS NOT PARTICULARLY
STRONG SO IT SEEMS THAT IT WILL BE UNABLE TO PUSH THE FRONT THAT
FAR SOUTHWEST OF US. MOST GUIDANCE IS COMING TOWARDS A CONSENSUS
OF THE FRONT HANGING UP SOMEWHERE IN THE ATLANTA-AUGUSTA-
ORANGEBURG LOCATION & BEGINNING TO LIFT BACK NORTHWARD ON FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT. DRIVING THIS NORTHWARD MOVEMENT IS A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES FORECAST TO EMANATE FROM A LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS
THE CENTRAL US. SO WHILE THERE MAY BE A REPRIEVE IN THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ON FRIDAY (ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS
WHERE PWS LOOK TO FALL TO LESS THAN 1.5"), THIS WILL BE SHORT-
LIVED.
THE ENVIRONMENT FORECAST TO THEN OVERSPREAD THE AREA AS FRONT
LIFTS NORTHWARD ON FRIDAY NIGHT IS QUITE PRIMED FOR PROBLEMS
LOCALLY GIVEN HOW MUCH RAIN WE HAVE RECEIVED ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA. PWS OF >2" & LONG, SKINNY CAPE PROFILES WILL FAVOR
EFFICIENT RAINFALL RATES ATOP SOILS THAT ARE ALREADY PRIMED FOR
FLASH FLOODING. THE PRESENCE OF MULTIPLE, FOCUSED SHORTWAVES
PUSHING ATOP THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY IS QUITE CONCERNING,
SPECIFICALLY FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. WHILE CAMS ARE
SOMEWHAT OF A MIXED BAG RIGHT NOW, THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE PICKING
UP ON AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAINFALL IN THIS PERIOD. ECMWF EFI
FOR QPF HAS SHOT UP RUN TO RUN IN THIS PERIOD, ADDING CONFIDENCE
TO THIS. IF THE TRENDS CONTINUE, WE MAY NEED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
FOR PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
THEREAFTER, THE FORECAST BECOMES A BIT TRICKIER. GUIDANCE IS
GENERALLY SHOWING A BIT OF A DRYING TREND ON SUNDAY, WITH
ANOTHER SHOT OF RAINFALL ON MONDAY AHEAD OF A MORE ROBUST COLD
FRONT. THAT FRONT IS GENERALLY FORECAST TO RESULT IN DRY AND
COOLER WEATHER BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER, AT THIS
POINT, NOT COMPLETELY CONFIDENT THAT IT ACTUALLY COMES TO
FRUITION. WE SHALL SEE!
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH BRIEF RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE EACH MORNING. DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AND MAY PERIODS OF BRING HEAVY RAIN, REDUCED VISIBILITY
AND GUSTY WINDS.
COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHING INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING
BEFORE STALLING OUT OVER THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA EARLY
FRIDAY.
FROM THE AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, MAINLY VFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES SHOULD PERSIST OUTSIDE OF ANY
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THAT MAY DEVELOP. THUNDERSTORMS COULD
BRING BRIEF IFR VISIBILITIES IN HEAVY RAINFALL TO ANY TAF
LOCATION IMPACTED. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME FOR
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION, SO HAVE MAINLY CONTINUED WITH PROB30
WORDING AT EACH TAF SITE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING.
LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AT AGS/DNL, GUIDANCE IS
INDICATING THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LOWER END MVFR OR UPPER END
IFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS DEVELOPING. HAVE MAINLY GONE WITH A
TEMPO GROUP AT THOSE TWO LOCATIONS FOR THE LOWER VISIBILITIES.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND AS A FRONT MEANDERS ACROSS THE
REGION. THE GREATEST RAINFALL AND EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS
CHANCES WILL BE FAVORED ACROSS THE CSRA AND SOUTHERN MIDLANDS.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...PL
AVIATION...CAL
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