671
FXUS62 KCAE 021833
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
233 PM EDT FRI OCT 2 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
INCREASING CONCERN FOR AT LEAST LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING AS
HEAVY RAIN DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT THIS WEEKEND. AVIATION
DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 18Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA LEADING TO INCREASING CHANCES
FOR RAIN AND COOLER TEMPS THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
INCREASING CONCERN FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.
DISCUSSION
.KEY MESSAGE 1: FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA LEADING TO INCREASING CHANCES
FOR RAIN AND COOLER TEMPS THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK
INCREASING CONCERN FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.
HIGH PRESSURE HAS SHIFTED OFFSHORE WITH UPPER RIDGING CONTINUING
OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. WHILE THERE HAS BEEN A MODEST
MOISTURE INCREASE IN THE LOW LEVELS, EVIDENT BY DEW POINTS
AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY, MUCH OF THIS
INCREASE REMAINS SHALLOW WITH 12Z SOUNDING OUT OF CHS SHOWING
DRY AIR PERSISTING IN THE MID LEVELS. WHILE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS
ARE MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA,
CAPPING AND DRY AIR ALOFT WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE THROUGH
THIS EVENING.
AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS OFFSHORE INTO TONIGHT, MORE
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE INCREASE IS EXPECTED WITH SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW DEVELOPING ALOFT. HREF MEAN INDICATES PWATS WILL RISE TO
ABOVE 2 INCHES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA, CLOSER TO 2.2 INCHES
NEAR THE COASTAL PLAIN. THIS WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD CLOUD
COVERAGE AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS IN THE MORNING, ALTHOUGH
FORCING WILL BE GENERALLY WEAK SO ANY SHOWERS WILL LIKELY REMAIN
LIGHT. WHILE INSTABILITY WILL GENERALLY BE WEAK WITH BLENDED
GUIDANCE INDICATION PROBABILITY OF SBCAPE GREATER THAN 1000 J/KG
AROUND 20 PERCENT OR LESS. AS A RESULT, STORM COVERAGE MAY BE
SOMEWHAT ISOLATED, WITH SEVERE STORMS UNLIKELY AND MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN THE MAIN THREAT. HEAVIEST WILL LIKELY BE ALONG THE
AXIS OF THE APPROACHING BOUNDARY WHICH HIGHER RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE GENERALLY FAVORS IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA,
ALTHOUGH THE EXACT LOCATION FOR HEAVIEST RAIN AXIS REMAINS
UNCERTAIN. STRONG CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AND MAY LEAD TO SOME GENERAL FLASH
FLOODING CONCERNS INTO THE DAY ON SUNDAY WHEN UPPER LEVEL
FORCING STRENGTHENS AS A ROBUST SHORTWAVE LIKELY MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA. WITH MOISTURE ANOMALOUSLY HIGH, THE MOST LIKELY
SCENARIO THIS WEEKEND IS WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS GREATER
THAN 2 INCHES, WITH BLENDED PROBABILITIES OF 60-70 PERCENT. HREF
LPMM INDICATES THIS HIGHER AXIS OF GREATER THAN 3 INCHES WITH
LOCALIZED SPOTS OF EVEN HIGHER AMOUNTS. DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH MONDAY WITH THE AXIS OF HEAVIER RAIN
SHIFTING SOUTHWARD AS AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE NORTHEAST.
MODELS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN FAVORING DRIER AIR INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK WITH COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP SATURDAY.
FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS AROUND 5 KFT AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS
AROUND 5-7 KNOTS CONTINUE BEFORE DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET. A
STRAY SHOWER CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA, BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW FOR INCLUSION. INCREASING
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE COULD LEAD TO SOME RESTRICTIONS TONIGHT,
THOUGH WIDESPREAD IMPACTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS SIGNIFICANT
AS IN PREVIOUS NIGHTS, AS CLOUD COVER SHOULD INCREASE WITH A
FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN
COVERAGE THROUGHOUT THE DAY SATURDAY, WITH PERIODIC MVFR CIGS
POSSIBLE. FOR NOW, PROB30 GROUPS HAVE BEEN ADDED BETWEEN 12-18Z
FOR LIGHT SHOWERS, ALONG WITH PERIODS OF BKN CEILINGS AROUND 5
KFT AT ALL SITES.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION THIS
WEEKEND MAY LEAD TO ADDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...96
AVIATION...ND
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