263
FXUS62 KCAE 110721
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
321 AM EDT FRI OCT 11 2024
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS THE FORECAST AREA COOL AND DRY THROUGH
FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND THROUGH MONDAY. THE PASSAGE
OF A COLD FRONT ON MONDAY WILL USHER IN THE COLDEST AIR MASS OF
THE SEASON THUS FAR WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURNING.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:
- DRY HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION WITH
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED
HIGH PRESSURE IS ALREADY RIDGING INTO THE REGION, CREATING NICE
AND COOL CONDITIONS AS THIS IS WRITTEN. MOST SPOTS ARE IN THE
LOW 50S BUT OUR COOLER AREAS ARE DIPPING INTO THE UPPER 40S. THE
MAJORITY OF THE AREA SHOULD DIP BETWEEN 45F AND 50F AS WE GET
TOWARDS DAWN. SOME LIGHT WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION AS A
25 KNOT LOW-LEVEL JET IS IN PLACE AROUND 1000 FEET, SO THAT WILL
LIMIT THE EXTENT OF COOLING TONIGHT. STILL, IT'LL BE QUITE CRISP
OUT THERE AS YOU HEAD OUT THE DOOR THIS MORNING. LOOKING AHEAD
INTO THE DAY, STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION AS GENERAL TROUGHING WORKS ITS WAY
EASTWARD. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN THE SURFACE HIGH CONTINUING TO
BUILD SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT. THE RESULT
OF ALL OF THIS IS EXTREMELY NICE WEATHER. SURFACE WINDS WILL
REMAIN AROUND 8-15 MPH THROUGH THE DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW OR
MID 70S EVERYWHERE. TONIGHT, EXPECT OUR FIRST REAL FALL CHILL TO
ARRIVE. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SET UP DIRECTLY OVER THE FORECAST
AREA, WITH WINDS IN THE LOWER PORTION OF THE ATMOSPHERE EXPECTED
TO BE NEARLY CALM. GIVEN THE EXTENT OF THE DRY AIR (DEWPOINTS
SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOW 40S THIS AFTERNOON) IN PLACE, IDEAL
CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT. SO LOOK
FOR LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S!
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH WARMING DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES AND COOL NIGHTS.
DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL BE AMPLIFYING IN THE EASTERN CONUS BY
LATE SUNDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT TOWARD THE
REGION. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST
AND THIS WILL LEAD TO MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES OVER THE
WEEKEND. THE AIR MASS WILL BE QUITE DRY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
ABOUT 55-60% OF NORMAL. HIGHS IN THE 70S SATURDAY WILL RISE INTO
THE LOW 80S SUNDAY. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE
A LITTLE WARMER DUE TO INCREASING WIND IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER/MODERATING AIR MASS, BUT STILL COOL, UPPER 40S OVER MUCH
OF THE AREA. LOW TEMPERATURES WARM A BIT SUNDAY NIGHT CLOSER TO
60 DEGREES AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT DUE TO A 30-40 KT LOW LEVEL
JET AFTER 06Z.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- A DRY COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH ON MONDAY.
- A MUCH COLDER AIR MASS FOLLOWS BEHIND THE BOUNDARY WITH WELL
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD.
THE ENSEMBLES ARE CONSISTENT WITH DEVELOPING AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP
UPPER TROUGH IN THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH MIDWEEK THEN MOVES
EAST. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND USHER IN MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA.
COLD ADVECTION APPEARS TO MAXIMIZE RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT THEN
CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. WINDS EXPECTED TO BE GUSTY WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. A DRY COLD AIR MASS WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA
THROUGH LATE WEEK. HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR TEMPERATURES TO BE ABOUT
10 DEGREES COOLER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SKIES ARE CLEAR AND WINDS ARE LIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES
TO BUILD INTO THE REGION. THERE IS VERY LITTLE TO SAY OTHERWISE
AS THIS GENERAL THEME WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
WE'LL SEE WINDS PICK UP AGAIN AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING AND
FALL TO NEAR CALM AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN
SUNNY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE ON MONDAY MAY
BRING A WIND SHIFT BUT OTHERWISE, NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO
AVIATION EXPECTED.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
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