176
FXUS62 KCAE 120029
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
829 PM EDT TUE AUG 11 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED KEY MESSAGE #1 TO DISCUSS UPSTREAM CONVECTION. AVIATION
DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 00Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. STORMS WITH STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS POSSIBLE THROUGH
THURSDAY.
- 2. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LIKELY, HEAT ADVISORY POSSIBLE,
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
- 1. STORMS WITH STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS POSSIBLE THROUGH
THURSDAY.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TO OUR WEST WILL ALLOW SEVERAL DISTURBANCES
TO DIG INTO THE CAROLINAS THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. IN ADDITION
TO TYPICAL DIURNALLY DRIVEN STORMS, THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR
ORGANIZED CONVECTION FROM DECAYING MCSS UPSTREAM. MID-LEVEL DRY
AIR WILL ALLOW FOR DCAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG, SO ANY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN PULSE- CONVECTION WILL POSE A THREAT OF
ISOLATED DOWNBURST WINDS.
IN TERMS OF A MORE WIDESPREAD WIND THREAT, MCSS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP IN THE MIDWEST AND DIG INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES BY
THE LATE EVENING TIME FRAME. IN THIS SETUP, WE TYPICALLY SEE A
DECAYING MCSS DIGGING INTO THE NORTHERN FA WELL AFTER PEAK
HEATING. HOWEVER, THERE ARE TIMES WHEN CONVECTION PERSISTS
LONGER THAN MODELS ANTICIPATE LEADING TO A COLD POOL DRIVEN LINE
OF STORMS CAUSING SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES AND WIND DAMAGE.
ONE THESE LINES OF STORMS IS SEEN BACK IN SOUTHERN KY, MOVING
INTO NORTHERN TN AS OF WRITING THIS. THIS IS ON TRACK TO REACH
THE NORTHERN FA BY 04-06Z, BUT WITH ON-GOING CONVECTION ACROSS
THE UPSTATE TOWARD THE FAR NORTHERN MIDLANDS, CONFIDENCE IN THIS
MCS REMAINING ORGANIZED BY THE TIME IT REACHES IS LOW AT THE
MOMENT. ANOTHER CHANCE FOR DECAYING ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO
NEAR THE CWA COULD COULD BE POSSIBLE AGAIN WEDNESDAY LATE
WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO THE MID DAY.
- 2. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LIKELY, HEAT ADVISORY POSSIBLE,
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NORTHWEST, DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND RISING HEIGHTS FAVOR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH MUCH OF THE 7 DAY FORECAST PERIOD. IF
CONVECTION DOES NOT HAMPER HEATING, WE WILL LIKELY HAVE HIGHS IN
THE MID 90S TO UPPER 90S. THE NBM MAY BE TOO WARM GIVEN ITS
VERIFICATION THROUGH THE SPRING/SUMMER SEASON HOWEVER HIGHS OF
AROUND 100 DEGREES CAN'T BE RULED OUT LATE THIS WEEK AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS RIDGING BUILDS OVERHEAD. HEAT INDEX VALUES SHOULD
RANGE FROM 100 TO 105 THROUGH FRIDAY WITH VALUES IN THE 105 TO
110 RANGE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THAT SAID WITH
CONVECTION POSSIBLE BOTH DAYS CONFIDENCE IN REACHING HEAT
ADVISORY IS LOW AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST DURING THE TAF PERIOD AT
THIS TIME.
CONVECTION IS ON-GOING IN THE UPSTATE WITH A MORE ORGANIZED
SYSTEM FURTHER NORTHWEST, WORKING TOWARD THE AREA. CONFIDENCE IN
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IMPACTING THE TERMINALS IS NOT HIGH, BUT
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE MAINLY BEFORE 04-08Z, THUS HAVE A PROB30
GROUP FOR MOST SITES EXCEPT THE AUGUSTA TERMINALS. BESIDES THIS,
LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH LINGERING DEBRIS
CLOUDINESS FROM CONVECTION. DUE TO THIS CLOUD COVER, GUIDANCE
SHOWS MINIMAL IF ANY FOG/STRATUS FORMATION AND AN OVERALL
PERSISTENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS. WINDS THEN PICK UP AGAIN AROUND
15Z WEDNESDAY OUT OF THE WEST NEAR 5-10 KTS. SCATTERED CUMULUS
SHOULD DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY WITH ISOLATED STORM CHANCES
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD, BUT CONFIDENCE IN
IMPACTS AT ANY ONE TERMINAL IS TOO LOW TO ADD IN THE TAF AT THE
MOMENT.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A HOT AND DRIER WEATHER PATTERN
DEVELOPS THROUGH THE WEEK. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE
LOW AND RESTRICTIONS LIKELY MINIMAL AS HIGHS PUSH INTO THE UPPER
90S.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DH/CJR
AVIATION...DH/29
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