610
FXUS62 KCAE 191815
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
215 PM EDT FRI JUN 19 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MINIMAL CHANGE TO KEY MESSAGE 1. AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED
FOR 18Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. AFTER A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TODAY, A MORE TYPICAL
SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN RETURNS THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: AFTER A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TODAY, A MORE
TYPICAL SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN RETURNS THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
THE REMNANT LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION THAT ONCE WAS ARTHUR CAN BE
SEEN ON SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON PUSHING OFF THE NC
COAST WITH ITS UPPER WAVE ALSO DEPARTING. LATEST SURFACE
ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE UPSTATE AND TOWARD
THE PEE DEE WITH THE AIR MASS AHEAD OF IT MAINTAINING DEEP
MOISTURE AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. THIS IS
YIELDING MLCAPE VALUES BETWEEN 1000-1500 J/KG, BUT WITH THE
DEPARTING SURFACE LOW AND UPPER WAVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS DOWN TO
AROUND 20-25KTS. AS HEATING OF THE AIRMASS CONTINUES AHEAD OF
THE FRONT, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. AN ISOLATED
STORM ON THE STRONGER SIDE CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH DCAPE
VALUES APPROACHING 700-900 J/KG, BUT WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER
IS NOT ANTICIPATED. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT
INTO SATURDAY WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO RECOVER SUNDAY AS A WEAK UPPER
DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH, BRINGING DIURNAL RAIN CHANCES BACK.
TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR NORMAL IN
THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S.
THERE IS DECENT AGREEMENT AMONGST GLOBAL MODELS THAT MULTIPLE
WEAK DISTURBANCES ARE PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH MAINLY ZONAL FLOW
INTO THE MID WEEK, BRINGING DIURNAL SHOWER/STORM CHANCES EACH
DAY AND TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S. A ROBUST UPPER RIDGE
IS EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION LATE THIS
WEEK, BRINGING A TROUGHING PATTERN TOWARD EASTERN CONUS WHERE A
MORE AMPLIFIED SYSTEM MAY BE ABLE TO SNEAK INTO THE FA, BUT
THERE REMAINS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD ON TIMING.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
LOW PRESSURE IS DEPARTING THE AREA WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
STORMS WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
A FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EVENING AND WHILE ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG IT,
STORM COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE EAST OF ALL THE TERMINALS. WINDS
REMAIN GENERALLY OUT OF THE WEST WITH GUSTS INTO THE TEENS
SUBSIDING LATER THIS AFTERNOON, BECOMING MOSTLY LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TONIGHT. WITH LOW LEVEL DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO THE
AREA, EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE TONIGHT.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION TO
RETURN SUNDAY, ALTHOUGH COVERAGE WILL BE ISOLATED WITH HIGHER
COVERAGE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DH
AVIATION...96
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