334
FXUS62 KCAE 030012
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
812 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. MOSTLY DRY WEATHER AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES ABOVE 100F.
- 2. ACTIVE WEATHER POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY DECREASING
TEMPERATURES.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1. MOSTLY DRY WEATHER AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES
ABOVE 100F.
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AS THE ROBUST UPPER RIDGE
CURRENTLY CENTERED JUST OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY CONTINUES TO
SLIDE ITS WAY OVERHEAD BY THURSDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY
RETROGRADING THIS WEEKEND. THERE REMAINS SOLID DETERMINISTIC
AND ENSEMBLE AGREEMENT THAT AS THIS RIDGE SHIFTS IN,
TEMPERATURES SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 90S AS 500MB HEIGHTS
NEAR THE CLIMATOLOGICAL MAX WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES NEAR THE
NAEFS 99.5TH PERCENTILE. A SLIGHT DIFFERENCE IN LATEST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THESE WELL-ABOVE TEMPS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND THERE ARE HINTS IT COULD CONTINUE INTO
SUNDAY. THE DAILY RECORD AT KCAE (99F IN 2014) STILL STANDS AS
THE THE MAX TEMPERATURE RECORDED THIS AFTERNOON WAS 98F. WITH
PWAT'S REMAINING NEAR 1.90" MUCH OF THE WEEK, SURFACE DEWPOINTS
SHOULD STICK TOWARD THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S, BRINGING
WIDESPREAD HEAT INDICES BETWEEN 100-105F EACH DAY THROUGH
SATURDAY, WITH A POSSIBILITY OF NEARING THOSE VALUES INTO
SUNDAY. A COUPLE SPOTS NEARING HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA (108F)
COULD BE POSSIBLE, TOMORROW THROUGH SATURDAY, BUT THIS WILL
DEPEND LARGELY ON HOW DEEP OF MIXING IS SEEN EACH DAY. OVERALL,
A ANOMALOUS PERIOD OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL PERSIST MUCH OF
THIS WEEK WITH AN INCREASED RISK FOR HEAT- RELATED ILLNESSES SO
BE SURE TO TAKE HEAT SAFETY PRECAUTIONS THIS WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 2. ACTIVE WEATHER POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY
DECREASING TEMPERATURES.
THERE REMAINS SOLID AGREEMENT ACROSS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE THAT THE
UPPER RIDGE SHOULD GRADUALLY RETROGRADE THIS WEEKEND IN
RESPONSE TO A DEEP TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE EASTERN CONUS. AS
THIS OCCURS, A FRONT SHOULD NEAR THE AREA WITH ACCOMPANYING
SHORTWAVE ENERGY, BRINGING BACK THE CHANCE FOR AT LEAST
SCATTERED CONVECTION EACH AFTERNOON THIS WEEKEND. WITH THIS
SAID, TIMING DIFFERENCES REMAIN FOR THE FRONT WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR A LATER PASSAGE ON SATURDAY. DUE TO THIS, TEMPERATURES WITH
THE CURRENT NBM RUN REMAIN WARMER SATURDAY (IN THE UPPER 90S)
BEFORE COOLING TOWARD NORMAL ON SUNDAY, BUT TEMPS SUNDAY HAVE
TRENDED SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS AS WELL. CURRENT
TRENDS SUGGESTS TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL COULD PERSIST INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ISOLATED RAIN CHANCES.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
EARLY MORNING FOG AND STRATUS POSSIBLE IN THE EASTERN AND
SOUTHERN MIDLANDS.
SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT WHICH WILL
LEAD TO AT LEAST A MARGINAL INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. ONCE
AGAIN SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR INLAND RESTRICTIONS WILL
DEVELOP WITH THE MOST LIKELY TERMINALS IMPACTED AGS AND OGB AS
HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR THE PAST SEVERAL NIGHTS. HAVE AT LEAST
MENTIONED THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY SOME BRIEF
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS GENERALLY AROUND SUNRISE. ANY
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE SHORT LIVED, DISSIPATING SHORTLY AFTER
DAYBREAK. WINDS ONCE AGAIN OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST TOMORROW WITH
DIURNAL CUMULUS BUT UPPER RIDGING SUPPRESSING CONVECTION
THROUGH THE DAY ONCE AGAIN.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CHANCES FOR RESTRICTIONS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE THIS WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DH/29
AVIATION...96
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