366
FXUS62 KCAE 051101
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
701 AM EDT SUN APR 5 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 12Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED LATE THIS MORNING AND
THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A FRONT.
- 2. POTENTIAL FOR INCREASED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS NEXT WEEK AS
A DRY AND COOL AIRMASS OVERSPREADS THE EASTERN CONUS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED LATE THIS
MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A FRONT.
SHOWERS FROM LAST EVENING HAVE DIMINISHED AS THE LOCAL SURGE OF
PWS HAS SHIFTED TO OUR NORTH INTO SOUTHERN NC. WE REMAIN MOSTLY
CLEAR ACROSS THE AREA AS OF THIS HOUR AS MOST OF THE CLOUD COVER
REMAINS ACROSS NORTHERN GA AND NORTHERN SC. HIGH PRESSURE IS
RETREATING IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS SLOWLY INCREASING
AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES OVERALL, AND CLOUDS ARE GENERALLY
FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA BY 7A OR 8A AS THE PRECIPITATION
SHIELD GRADUALLY SHIFTS TOWARDS THE REGION. PWS ALONG AND AHEAD
OF THE FRONT ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 1.3"-1.5" RANGE, WHICH IS
IN THE 95TH+ PERCENTILE FOR EARLY APRIL. FORCING WON'T BE SUPER
ROBUST AS THE BEST DYNAMICS SHOULD BE TO OUR NORTH AS THE TROUGH
PUSHES THROUGH. HOWEVER, FORCING LOOKS ADEQUATE ALONG THE FRONT
TO FORCE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BY
EARLY AFTERNOON. THE FRONT'S TIMING LOOKS TO BE EARLY AFTERNOON
FOR MOST, SO SOME INSTABILITY LOOKS LIKE IT MAY DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON. HREF/RRFS SOUNDINGS DO SHOW A BIT OF LOW-LEVEL CAPE
DEVELOPING, SO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH DECAYING
SHOWERS LOOKS LIKE THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME. QPF TOTALS WITHIN
GUIDANCE ARE GENERALLY UNDER 0.25"; HOWEVER, GIVEN THE MOISTURE
RICH PROFILES IN PLACE, IT WOULDN'T BE TOO SURPRISING IF WE
OVERACHIEVED A BIT IN SOME LOCATIONS. STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS REALLY AREN'T EXPECTED, WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF
STRONGER CONVECTION IN THE PEE DEE REGION NEAREST THE STRONGER
LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW. EXPECT MOST OF THE RAIN TO DEPART
EASTWARD AFTER 8P (AT THE LATEST).
KEY MESSAGE 2: POTENTIAL FOR INCREASED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
NEXT WEEK AS A DRY AND COOL AIRMASS OVERSPREADS THE EASTERN
CONUS.
FEW CHANGES IN THE EXPECTATIONS FOR THE WEATHER NEXT WEEK.
STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD
INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION AND ANCHOR FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE
NEXT WEEK. THE SURFACE HIGH IS FORECAST BY ENSEMBLE AND AI
GUIDANCE ACROSS THE BOARD TO BE IN THE 1032+ HPA RANGE, WHICH IS
NEAR THE 99TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. AS SUCH, THE
AIRMASS IS FORECAST TO BE QUITE DRY AND COOL FOR THE NEXT WEEK.
GIVEN OUR ONGOING DROUGHT, FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS EXIST,
ESPECIALLY IN THE TUES-THUR TIMEFRAME. MIN RH VALUES WILL LIKELY
EXCEED CRITICAL THRESHOLDS, FALLING INTO THE 20%-30% RANGE.
ADDITIONALLY, A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS FORECAST AND DAILY
WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO EXCEED 20 MPH. CAUTION IS STRESSED
WITH ANY PLANNED BURNS GIVEN OUR PERSISTENT DRYNESS AND THE
METEOROLOGICAL SETUP.
AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
CHANCE OF LOW CEILINGS EARLY THIS MORNING, ADDITIONAL
RESTRICTIONS LIKELY LATER TODAY WITH A PASSING COLD FRONT....
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT ARE BUILDING
INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST AT DAYBREAK. OGB RECENTLY
REPORTED MVFR TO BRIEF IFR CEILINGS DURING THE LAST HOUR AND
THERE REMAINS A POSSIBILITY FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS
DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS AT OGB AND THE REMAINING TERMINALS.
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY LATER TODAY AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS
THROUGH THE REGION. SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BREEZY
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WITH A PERIOD OF POTENTIAL RESTRICTIONS
DUE TO RAIN AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS. WINDS WILL ALSO SHIFT WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THE COLD FRONT. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TOWARDS EVENING WITH
WINDS BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KNOTS AND PASSING HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDINESS
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THE CHANCE OF RESTRICTIONS IS LOW
THROUGH AT LEAST MID-WEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...PL
AVIATION...7
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