718
FXUS62 KCAE 060535
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
135 AM EDT THU AUG 6 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
EARLY MORNING SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. HEAT AND HUMIDITY CONTINUE, WITH DIURNAL CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AVIATION
DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 06Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. DIURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY THROUGH THE PERIOD.
DISCUSSION
- 1. DIURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY THROUGH THE PERIOD.
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA FROM THE WEST ALONG REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.
HOWEVER, CONVECTION HAS STARTED TO WEAKEN, ESPECIALLY AS IT
APPROACHES THE I-20 CORRIDOR. ANY LINGERING ACTIVITY SHOULD
DISSIPATE INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
LITTLE CHANGE HAS BEEN MADE IN THE OVERALL FORECAST. THE WEAK
UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT HAS BEEN SPINNING OVER THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS IS FINALLY BEING ABSORBED INTO A DIGGING LONGWAVE
TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES. IN ITS WAKE,
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A LOW-AMPLITUDE,
SEASONABLY STRONG RIDGE CENTERED JUST TO OUR SOUTH WILL BUILD IN
BY THE WEEKEND. DEEP-LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL MAINTAIN
ELEVATED PWATS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A CLASSIC SUMMERTIME
PATTERN WILL PERSIST AS 500MB HEIGHTS CLIMB TO AROUND THE 90TH
PERCENTILE FOR EARLY AUGUST. HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID
90S WITH DAILY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
WITH PWATS GENERALLY BETWEEN 1.8-2", EXPECT TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
CONVECTION. WHILE A FEW STRONGER STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT,
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. HOWEVER, EFFICIENT
RAINFALL RATES AND SLOW STORM MOTIONS MAY RESULT IN LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
CEILING AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN THROUGH
SUNRISE THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS TO
BE LIKELY OUTSIDE OF ISOLATED STORMS.
ANOTHER ROUND OF NIGHTTIME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
REGION WILL BRING SOME RESTRICTIONS WITHIN THAT ACTIVITY AS IT MOVES
ACROSS ANY TAF LOCATION. OUTSIDE OF THE RAINFALL OVERNIGHT, MAY SEE
SOME PERIODS OF VFR, BUT ONCE AGAIN TOWARDS MORNING EXPECTING TO SEE
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES TO DEVELOP DUE TO PLENTIFUL LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE. THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG AND
EXTREMELY LOW CIGS APPEARS LOWER THAT PREVIOUS MORNING, BUT STILL
MAY SEE SOME PATCHY LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 14Z AGAIN.
FOR MUCH OF THE DAYTIME HOURS AFTER 14Z, CEILINGS SHOULD LIFT BACK
TO VFR WITH CUMULUS RETURNING FOR MOST OF THE DAY. SIMILAR COVERAGE
OF ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED,
WITH CURRENT PROBABILITIES SUPPORTING A PROB30 GROUP, CONSISTENT
WITH PREVIOUS DAYS LASTING INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
THIS WEEK WITH EARLY MORNING RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ND
AVIATION...73
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