716
FXUS62 KCAE 141501
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1101 AM EDT SUN JUN 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
POPS MONDAY TRENDING LOWER WITH DRIER AIR ANTICIPATED OVER MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. THUNDERSTORMS TODAY MAY LEAD TO DAMAGING WINDS.
- 2. UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUING INTO THE WORK WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: THUNDERSTORMS TODAY MAY LEAD TO DAMAGING WINDS.
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
AND TN RIVER VALLEY ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON. WIND SHEAR WILL BE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR LINEAR
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP DOWNSHEAR OF THE CONVECTIVE COLD POOLS.
WITH VERY STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND STRONG DCAPE IN PLACE
TODAY BUT RELATIVELY WEAK OR MODERATE MLCAPE THIS TENDS TO FAVOR
A COLD POOL DRIVEN SYSTEM DEVELOPING TO OUR WEST OR NORTHWEST
AND DRIVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA IN THE AFTERNOON OR EVENING.
THE CAMS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN INCONSISTENT WITH TIMING BUT THE
HRRR WHICH HAS HAD DECENT RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY SHOWS THE LINE
OF STORMS WORKING INTO THE FA IN THE LATE EVENING, DECAYING WITH
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND POSSIBLY TOO COLD POOL DOMINANT TO
SUSTAIN ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP TO OUR EAST TODAY CLOSER TO THE SEA
BREEZE WHICH COULD PRODUCE A MORE ISOLATED THREAT OF DAMAGING
DOWNBURST WINDS. THIS POINTS TO AT LEAST SOME CONCERN FOR
DAMAGING WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT THE THREAT OF
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS LIMITED.
OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION, IT WILL BE SEASONABLY HOT TODAY BUT HEAT
INDEX VALUES WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
KEY MESSAGE 2: UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUING INTO THE WORK WEEK.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD PASS THROUGH THE AREA BY MONDAY
ALLOWING FOR DRIER AIR TO WORK OVER THE FA. SO MONDAY LOOKS TO
HAVE LOWER CONVECTIVE COVERAGE THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. BEYOND
THAT, PERSISTENTLY HIGH IVT (90TH PERCENTILE PER NAEFS) SHOULD
AID IN KEEPING THINGS UNSETTLED THROUGH MID WEEK. BY THE END OF
THIS UPCOMING WEEK, IT APPEARS THAT ANOTHER FRONT MAY MAKE IT
INTO THE AREA & ANOTHER FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.
AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD OUTSIDE OF
AFTERNOON CONVECTION.
SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE OVER THE AREA WITH ANOTHER HOT
AND HUMID DAY EXPECTED. DIURNAL CUMULUS SHOULD DEVELOP AND
SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED, SOME POSSIBLE
SEVERE. CARRYING A PROB30 GROUP FOR CONVECTION 18Z-00Z. SURFACE
WINDS EXPECTED TO BE STRONGER TODAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCREASES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS PICKING UP TO AROUND 10-12 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
AROUND 20 KNOTS AFTER 15Z. WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE WITH SUNSET AT
AROUND 5 TO 6 KNOTS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...GREATER RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED
EARLY NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH POSSIBLE ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS WITH
A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CJR
AVIATION...23
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