041
FXUS62 KCAE 070033
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
833 PM EDT THU AUG 6 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
FEW LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
EVENING. AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 00Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, SOME STRONG, EACH DAY.
DISCUSSION
- 1. DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, SOME STRONG, EACH DAY.
EXPECT DIURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
THE HRRR AND HREF SHOW LOWER COVERAGE COMPARED TO THURSDAY BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW GIVEN THE POOR PERFORMANCE SHOWN THE PAST FEW
DAYS. STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN WITH FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUPPORTING A FAVORABLE PROFILE FOR WET MICROBURSTS.
PWAT VALUES WILL BE AROUND 2 INCHES AGAIN WITH SLOW STORM
MOVEMENT SO HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN. THIS WEEKEND
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK, UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY
BUILD. 90TH PERCENTILE HEIGHTS WILL FOSTER HIGHS CLIMBING BACK
INTO THE MID 90S, WHILE PWS IN THE 1.8-2.0" RANGE WILL CONTINUE
TO FOSTER DAILY CHANCES AT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE
TYPICAL THREATS WILL LIKELY BE ASSOCIATED WITH THESE, WITH STORM
COVERAGE A BIT LOWER THAN TODAY FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE AND MOVE OUT OF THE AREA.
WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS AND VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
AFTERNOON CONVECTION CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND MOVE AWAY FROM THE
TAF SITES. WHATS LEFT IS LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS, MOSTLY IN THE
NORTHERN MIDLANDS, AS SOME LINGERING BKN TO OVC CLOUD DEBRIS
REMAINS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA. RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING, WITH CONFIDENCE
INCREASING IN WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS, PARTICULARLY FOLLOWING
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING'S WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. FOG AND
LOCALLY LOWER CEILINGS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AS ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE. TEMPO GROUPS HAVE BEEN INCLUDED
BETWEEN 09-13Z TO ACCOUNT FOR THE GREATEST RESTRICTION
POTENTIAL.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY LATE MORNING, UNDER SCT TO
BKN SKIES THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY OUTSIDE OF ANY AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE MUCH OF THIS
WEEK, PROB30 GROUPS HAVE BEEN MAINTAINED THROUGH SUNSET TO
ACCOUNT FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT,
GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTH.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
THIS WEEK WITH EARLY MORNING RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CJR/PL
AVIATION...ND
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