312
FXUS62 KCAE 291739
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
139 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
HEAVIEST RAIN THREAT FOR TONIGHT CONTINUES TO SHIFT SLIGHTLY
WESTWARD. AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY IN THE
CSRA, THEN EXPANDING OVER THE AREA INTO SATURDAY.
- 2. AFTER A COLD FRONT SUNDAY, PATTERN BECOMES MORE UNCERTAIN.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY
IN THE CSRA, THEN EXPANDING OVER THE AREA INTO SATURDAY.
A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP ALONG A WEAK BOUNDARY
EXTENDING FROM THE COAST INTO BURKE COUNTY. THE MAIN FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY DRAPED TO OUR SOUTHWEST, GENERALLY FROM
THE ATLANTA AREA SOUTHEASTWARD TO JACKSONVILLE. THE HIGHEST
MOISTURE IS ALSO POOLING AROUND THIS BOUNDARY, WHERE PWATS ARE
AT 2" OR ABOVE. MOISTURE DROPS QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD OF THIS
BOUNDARY WITH AREAS ALONG THE SC/NC BORDER SEEING PWAT VALUES OF
AN INCH OR SLIGHTLY BELOW AS OF THIS UPDATE. SO, THINKING MOST
OF THE ACTIVITY REMAINS TO OUR SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE NEXT FEW
HOURS.
THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO INCH NORTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT, BRINGING INCREASED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALONG WITH IT. LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT THE 2" PWATS GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS THE BOUNDARY
APPROACHES THE AREA TONIGHT. AS SUCH, THE HREF, ALONG WITH
DETERMINISTIC HI-RES MODELS, KEEP THE HEAVIEST RAIN JUST TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF THE CSRA AND TAPERS IT OFF AS IT MOVES INTO THE
AREA TONIGHT. REGARDLESS, LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN, WITH LIMITED
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING REMAINING POSSIBLE AS WE
HEAD INTO TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. RAIN IS THEN EXPECTED
TO SPREAD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW
MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGE 2: AFTER A COLD FRONT SUNDAY, PATTERN BECOMES MORE
UNCERTAIN.
AN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD IS
EXPECTED TO SEND A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY,
BRINGING ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES ALONG WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR
TO THE AREA TO END THE WEEKEND. AFTER THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE, THE
FORECAST GUIDANCE STARTS TO SHOW UNCERTAINTY AS SOLUTION
BEYOND SATURDAY, THE FORECAST BECOMES A BIT TRICKIER. MOST
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A BRIEF DRYING TREND SUNDAY, FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAINFALL MONDAY AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT.
THAT SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK OFF THE EAST COAST THROUGH
MIDWEEK, ALLOWING COOLER AND DRIER HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN
FROM THE NORTH. HOWEVER, GUIDANCE REMAINS A BIT UNCERTAIN BEYOND
THAT. THERE SEEMS TO BE DECENT AGREEMENT IN ANOTHER FRONT MOVING
THROUGH MIDWEEK, BUT THEN THE MODELS REALLY DIVERGE AFTER THAT.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A MIXTURE OF MVFR/VFR THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, THEN A RETURN TO
MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS LATE TONIGHT AND FOR MUCH OF SATURDAY.
SURFACE FRONT IS STALLED OUTSIDE OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. NORTH OF THE FRONT, A MIXTURE OF MVFR/VFR BROKEN CUMULUS
EXISTS, AND ALTHOUGH CEILINGS SHOULD BE RISING BACK TO VFR BY 19Z,
CAN NOT RULE OUT BRIEF MVFR THIS AFTERNOON AT ANY SITE. THE SURFACE
FRONT WILL BE PUSHING BACK TO THE NORTH OVERNIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY.
THIS WILL BRING MOISTURE BACK INTO THE FORECAST AREA, ALONG WITH
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES. BEST RAIN CHANCES THIS EVENING AND EARLY
TONIGHT SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO THE CSRA REGION, WITH AGS/DNL/AIK
SHOWING THE MOST POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN FORMATION PRIOR TO
00Z. ADDITIONAL COVERAGE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH SUNRISE ON SATURDAY
AS MOISTURE DEEPENS ACROSS THE REGION. TOWARDS MORNING RAIN CHANCES
SHOULD INCREASE TOWARDS THE MIDLANDS, BUT ONLY INCLUDED PROP30 FOR
CAE/CUB/OGB AT THIS TIME DUE TO SOME MODEL INCONSISTENCIES WITH
COVERAGE AND TIMING. CEILINGS AS THE FRONT MOVES NORTH ARE
EXPECTED TO BEGIN DROPPING BACK INTO MVFR AFTER MIDNIGHT AT ALL
LOCATIONS, WITH THOSE CONDITIONS THEN PREVAILING THROUGH THE
DAYTIME ON SATURDAY. WINDS THIS AFTERNOON TURNING MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY, THEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...UNSETTLED WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK UNTIL DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION MID-WEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...29
AVIATION...CAL
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