580
FXUS62 KCAE 142351
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
651 PM EST FRI NOV 14 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH GRADUAL WARMING TREND CONTINUING. NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM WITH LOW
RAIN CHANCES.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- DRY HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCKED IN PLACE WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS.
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DIG
IN ACROSS THE AREA. CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT, BUT
SOME SUBTLE INCREASE IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BY SATURDAY
MORNING WILL START TO INCREASE LOW LEVEL FLOW. AN INCREASE IN
LOW LEVEL WINDS BELOW 850MB OVERNIGHT WILL INHIBIT IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING. BUT LOW TEMPS WILL STILL FALL TO BETWEEN 40
AND 45 DEGREES F.
SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN IN THE SHORT
TERM. DRY WEATHER IS VERY LIKELY WITH BELOW NORMAL ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE IN PLACE. SW FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM LEADING TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY WINDS.
SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE THE APEX OF BOTH OF THOSE CONDITIONS WITH
HIGHS PUSHING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S AND GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES, DRY WEATHER FAVORED
GLOBAL ENSEMBLES GENERALLY FAVOR WEAK RIDGING OR ZONAL FLOW
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE LONG TERM. THIS PATTERN FAVORS
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE COOLEST WEATHER
IS EXPECTED EARLY IN THE WEEK AS A DRY COLD FRONT BRINGS HIGHS
BACK DOWN TO NEAR NORMAL. TEMPERATURE RISE TO ABOVE NORMAL BY
MID WEEK. MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT, SUPPORTING SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION BUT KEEP THE MORE AMPLIFIED
TROUGHS TO OUR WEST OR LIFTING NORTH. THERE MAY BE COLD FRONT
WHICH MOVES ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH LATE IN THE PERIOD, WHICH WILL
BE THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.
HIGH PRESSURE IS IN PLACE WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
FORECAST OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL START TO INCREASE ABOVE THE
NOCTURNAL INVERSION EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, BUT WILL NOT BE
STRONG ENOUGH FOR A LLWS MENTION. AFTER THE MORNING INVERSION
MIXES OUT LATER SATURDAY MORNING, BREEZY WINDS THE REMAINDER OF
THE DAY ARE EXPECTED WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS IN THE
AFTERNOON OUT THE SOUTHWEST.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY CONTINUE INTO
THE WEEKEND WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE. WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
SUNDAY OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
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