837
FXUS62 KCAE 240739
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
239 AM EST TUE FEB 24 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION DISCUSSION AND KEY MESSAGES UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) LOW TEMPS THIS MORNING IN THE MID 20S.
- 2) COLD FRONT APPROACHES MID-WEEK LEADING TO BREEZY WINDS AND
INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE #1: LOW TEMPS THIS MORNING IN THE MID 20S.
WINDS REMAIN SLIGHTLY ELEVATED OVERNIGHT WHICH HAS HELPED KEEP
TEMPS CLOSER TO FREEZING THROUGH 2AM. AS WE GET CLOSER TO
SUNRISE HOWEVER WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY DROP OFF AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT FALLS OFF, BUT LOW TEMPS MAY END UP A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THAN FORECASTED. STILL GENERALLY EXPECT LOWS IN THE MID
20S, WITH SOME SHELTERED LOCATIONS LIKELY DIPPING INTO THE
LOW 20'S OR UPPER TEENS. ANY COLD- SENSITIVE VEGETATION COULD
BE DAMAGED AFTER LAST WEEK'S WARM UP.
KEY MESSAGE #2: COLD FRONT APPROACHES MID-WEEK LEADING TO BREEZY
WINDS AND INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN.
HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY SHIFTING OFFSHORE TO OUR EAST WILL LEAD
TO WARMING INTO THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WITH SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION STRENGTHENING. BREEZY WINDS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY AND INTO THURSDAY WITH THE NAEFS MEAN INDICATING
850MB WINDS ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA,
OUT OF THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. A APPROACHING MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND
ZONALLY ORIENTED SURFACE FRONT DRAPED JUST NORTH OF OUR AREA
WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURES FOR LATE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
ELEVATED RAIN CHANCES START THURSDAY AND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND AS A RESULT OF THIS TRAINING SETUP, WITH A STATIONARY
FRONT AT THE SURFACE AND GENERALLY PARALLEL FLOW FROM
850-500MB. LREF AND NBM MEMBERS STILL HAVE QUITE THE SPREAD
GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN FRONTAL PLACEMENT, MOISTURE RETURN TIMING,
AND INTERACTION WITH THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE. MEDIAN RAINFALL IS
AROUND 0.75" THURSDAY-SATURDAY, BUT GIVEN THE FAVORABILITY OF
THE TRAINING RAIN POTENTIAL, PROBS OF OVER 1.0" IS 25-40%.
AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH LIGHT SW WINDS TODAY.
EARLY THIS MORNING, WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THE NORTHWEST TOWARD
THE WEST WITH SPEEDS FROM 5 TO 10 KTS. EXPECT FEW TO SCT CIRRUS
OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY, BUT VFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM THE WEST TOWARD THE
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY REMAINING STEADY AT 5 TO 10 KTS INTO
THE EVENING. A DRY AIR MASS OVER THE REGION WILL PRECLUDE
FOG/STRATUS CONCERNS THROUGH TONIGHT DESPITE LIGHT WINDS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THE NEXT CHANCE AT WIDESPREAD
RESTRICTIONS AND RAIN WILL BE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO
FRIDAY AS A FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION...CJR
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