609
FXUS62 KCAE 200952
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
552 AM EDT TUE OCT 20 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING MAY START A BIT COOLER THAN
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK WITH
TEMPERATURES THAT WARM TO NEAR NORMAL BY THE MID WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK
WITH TEMPERATURES THAT WARM TO NEAR NORMAL BY THE MID WEEK.
THE MAIN NOTE OVER THE COMING HOURS TOWARD DAYBREAK IS THAT
NEARLY IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS HAVE SETUP WITH MOST
LOCATIONS SEEING CALM CONDITIONS OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
UNDER CLEAR SKIES. THIS HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO QUICKLY DROP
INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S, BUT THESE MAY CONTINUE TO FALL A FEW
DEGREES LOWER INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S BY DAYBREAK.
AFTER ANOTHER CHILLY MORNING, MORE OF THE SAME EXPECTED THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THERE IS FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE ACROSS
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IN THE SYNOPTIC EVOLUTION
OVER THE NEXT 4-6 DAYS. TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARM TOWARD THE
MID TO UPPER 70S OVER THE COMING DAYS WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING BACK IN BUT, BY THE WEEKEND, A DEEP TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO DIG IN ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS SHOULD AMPLIFY THE
DOWNSTREAM FEATURES, BEING THE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF
THE COUNTRY AND TROUGHING ACROSS THE EAST. INCREASED TROUGHING
THIS WEEKEND SHOULD YIELD TEMPERATURES PERHAPS SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL, BUT THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE AIRMASS REMAINING
QUITE MOISTURE-STARVED WITH LREF PROBABILITIES FOR DEWPOINTS
REACHING ABOVE 50F BELOW 20% MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
GREATER UNCERTAINTY IN THE CURRENT PATTERN DOES NOT ENTER UNTIL
EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT EVEN THEN, CHANCES FOR DEEPER MOISTURE TO
ADVECT INTO THE REGION REMAINS LOW.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL KEEP NORTHERLY FLOW IN
PLACE WITH CLEAR SKIES. LIGHT WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
PICK BACK UP AROUND 7 TO 10 KNOTS AFTER 15Z FROM THE NORTH TO
NORTHEAST. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON,
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AROUND SUNSET. WE CANNOT TOTALLY
RULE OUT A FEW GUSTS NEAR 16 KTS FROM 15Z-19Z BUT THEY SHOULD
BE INTERMITTENT. FOG NOT EXPECTED TO BE A CONCERN GIVEN THE VERY
DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SIGNIFICANT AVIATION CONCERNS
UNLIKELY THROUGH SATURDAY.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DH
AVIATION...CJR
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