209
FXUS62 KCAE 041809
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
209 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
KEY MESSAGES REMAIN THE SAME. AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR
18Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE EACH DAY THIS WEEK
AS TEMPERATURES HOVER AROUND AVERAGE. A COUPLE STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE TODAY.
DISCUSSION
- 1. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE EACH DAY THIS WEEK
AS TEMPERATURES HOVER AROUND AVERAGE. A COUPLE STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE TODAY.
AN ANOMALOUS, CLOSED 500 HPA LOW IS LOCATED ACROSS NORTH GA
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE, ALONG WITH COPIOUS PWS, HAS
BEEN DRIVING OUR PERSISTENT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THE LAST
SEVERAL DAYS. CONVECTION IS ALREADY BEGINNING TO GET GOING
RIGHT NOW TO OUR NORTH AND WEST, WITH MORE CONVECTION EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. TODAY'S SETUP
IS QUITE INTERESTING AND FAVORABLE FOR SEVERAL MARGINALLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS, WITH SEVERE DOWNBURSTS EXPECTED. THE SETUP FOR
TODAY (PER RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS) IS ACTUALLY QUITE REMINISCENT
OF SOME OF OUR BETTER PULSE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DAYS - BUT WE
HAVE FOCUSED FORCING. BY MID AFTERNOON, WE'RE EXPECTING >2000
J/KG OF SCAPE, ~900 J/KG OF DCAPE, >30 TEI, AND 40-45 KNOTS OF
8KM SHEAR. WITH THE HIGHEST PW PLUME NOW TO OUR EAST, A FAIRLY
LOW RH LAYER HAS DEVELOP BETWEEN 700 HPA AND 300 HPA ATOP A VERY
MOISTURE RICH BOUNDARY LAYER. THE COMBINATION OF THESE THINGS,
ESPECIALLY THE PRESENCE OF SOME SHEAR IN THE 8KM LAYER, LEADS ME
TO BELIEVE THAT SEVERAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY ACTUALLY
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. TIME WILL TELL BUT DON'T BE SURPRISED IF
WE ISSUE SOME WARNINGS THIS AFTERNOON.
BEYOND TODAY, WE ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY SEE RISING HEIGHTS
AND RISING AFTERNOON HIGHS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY CONFIDENT IN THE 500 HPA HEIGHT PATTERN & PWS
THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH LREF MEMBERS SHOWING VERY LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF IQR SPREAD THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK FOR BOTH FEATURES.
WHILE THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO FILL AND WEAKEN QUICKLY OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, THE PRESENCE OF 1.8"-2.0" PWS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO FAVOR DAILY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. CONVECTIVE TEMPS
LOOK TO BE ANYWHERE FROM 88F TO 93F EACH DAY THIS WEEK WHICH IS
FORECAST TO BE REACHED FAIRLY EASILY. SO OPPRESSIVE HUMIDITY,
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS IN THE MID 90S, AND DIURNAL
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO BE THE NORM BY THE SECOND
HALF OF THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR THIS AFTERNOON WITH OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS DUE TO -SHRA/-TSRA.
CIG RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE TONIGHT, BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE
COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW DAYS.
MOSTLY VFR ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE SOUTHEAST AT 5-10 KTS. WITH WEAK MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE OVER THE AREA, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. COVERAGE
SHOULD SUPPORT PROB30 GROUPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING, SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS DAYS. THE STRONGER STORMS COULD
PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN AND BRIEF CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS ALONG WITH
GUSTY WINDS OF 25-30 KTS. CONVECTION SHOULD DECREASE LATE THIS
EVENING. AS FOR TONIGHT, MODELS CONTINUE TO BE LESS AGGRESSIVE
COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW NIGHTS REGARDING RESTRICTIONS, BUT IF
CONDITIONS DON'T CHANGE MUCH OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS, THEN
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASED FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF CIG/VSBY REDUCTIONS
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THESE SHOULD DISSIPATE A FEW HOURS
AFTER SUNRISE, WITH A SCATTERED CU DECK DEVELOPING ALONG WITH A
LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WIND.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
THIS WEEK WITH EARLY MORNING RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...PL
AVIATION...EC
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