586
FXUS62 KCAE 060019
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
819 PM EDT WED AUG 5 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING BUT THE BULK OF
THE ACTIVITY REMAINS TO THE WEST. SEVERE WEATHER IS UNLIKELY FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. ANY REMAINING STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT. AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 00Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. DIURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY THROUGH THE PERIOD.
DISCUSSION
- 1. DIURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY THROUGH THE PERIOD.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH IN THE PATTERN OVER THE NEXT SEVEN
DAYS. GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE PERSISTENT
TROUGHING OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS WILL CONTINUE TO FILL AND LIFT
NORTHWARD. REPLACING IT WILL BE A LOW AMPLITUDE, SEASONALLY
STRONG RIDGE, CENTERED A BIT TO OUR SOUTH PER LREF MEANS. WHILE
HEIGHTS SHOULD BE IN THE ~90TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR,
PERSISTENTLY HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE LOOKS LIKE IT WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS SHOULD
FOSTER A CLASSICALLY SUMMER PATTERN, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO
MID 90S AND DAILY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN THIS AS LREF IQR SPREAD IS QUITE LOW FOR
BOTH 500 HPA HEIGHTS AND PWS THROUGH MUCH OF THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
PLUS, A STRONG SURFACE BERMUDA HIGH WILL BE ENTRENCHED, AND THIS
USUALLY OFFERS ONE OR TWO INVERTED SURFACE TROUGHS TO HELP
FOCUS CONVECTION. WITH PWS OF 1.8" TO 2.1" THROUGH THE PERIOD,
EXPECT TYPICAL SUMMERTIME WEATHER. STRONG STORMS CAN'T BE RULED
OUT BUT WILL GENERALLY BE LIMITED TO THE STRONGEST CONVECTION
AND LIKELY WON'T BE WIDESPREAD.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY OUTSIDE OF ISOLATED STORMS. IFR CIGS AND
VSBY POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE LARGELY DISSIPATED
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MIDLANDS, WITH THE MAIN AXIS OF
CONVECTION TOWARD OUR WEST. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN
POSSIBLE NEAR AGS/DNL/AIK, SO THE PROB30 GROUP HAS BEEN
MAINTAINED THROUGH 02Z. SOME OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED INTO THURSDAY, WITH WIDESPREAD IFR
CEILINGS LIKELY. HOWEVER, WITH LESS WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
COMPARED TO PREVIOUS NIGHTS, THE POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG AND
EXTREMELY LOW CIGS APPEARS LOWER (AND GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED AWAY
FROM THAT SCENARIO). A TEMPO GROUP IS INCLUDED AT THIS TIME.
CEILINGS SHOULD LIFT AFTER DAYBREAK, WITH VFR CUMULUS RETURNING
FOR MOST OF THE DAY ON THURSDAY. SIMILAR COVERAGE OF ISOLATED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED, WITH
CURRENT PROBABILITIES SUPPORTING A PROB30 GROUP, CONSISTENT
WITH PREVIOUS DAYS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
THIS WEEK WITH EARLY MORNING RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...PL
AVIATION...ND
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