707
FXUS62 KCAE 260549
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
149 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
UPDATED AVIATION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WITH INCREASING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
AS THE WEEK GOES ON.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WITH INCREASING
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS THE WEEK GOES ON.
THE PATTERN BEGINS TO TRANSITION TODAY AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND THE PREVIOUSLY STALLED BOUNDARY
LIFTS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA. INCREASING LOW- AND MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT A RISE IN PWATS TO AROUND 1.5-1.75 INCHES,
RESULTING IN A GREATER POTENTIAL FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR
NORMAL; HOWEVER, INCREASING DEWPOINTS AND HUMIDITY WILL BRING
BACK A MORE MUGGY FEEL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
MOISTURE ADVECTION INCREASES FURTHER THURSDAY AS PERSISTENT
SOUTHERLY FLOW TRANSPORTS ADDITIONAL MOISTURE. HREF AND LREF
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS PWATS APPROACHING 2 INCHES, SUPPORTING A VERY
MOIST ENVIRONMENT. A SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING THE AREA WILL ALSO
HELP PROVIDE ADDITIONAL LARGE-SCALE FORCING, WITH NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA. GIVEN
THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AND POTENTIAL FOR SLOW-MOVING OR
TRAINING CONVECTION, LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THE WPC CURRENTLY PLACES PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN FA, AND AREAS
NEAR THE CSRA, IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL, WITH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK. THE OVERALL SEVERE
THREAT SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED, THOUGH AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM
CANNOT BE RULED PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AS THE
UPPER- LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FORCING SHIFT EASTWARD AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. CONVECTION SHOULD GRADUALLY
DIMINISH LATE THIS WEEKEND AS DRIER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER IN
BEHIND THE FRONT. A STRENGTHENING RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD
EARLY NEXT WEEK, PROMOTING A WARMER AND DRIER TREND AS
TEMPERATURES TREND BACK ABOVE AVERAGE.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON.
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES PATCHY MVFR CLOUDS, GENERALLY
EAST OF THE TERMINALS, ALTHOUGH VERY CLOSE TO OGB. RESTRICTIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES AT ALL THE TERMINALS, ALTHOUGH APPEAR
MOST LIKELY AT AGS AND OGB, WHICH HAS ALREADY SEEN SOME BRIEF
MVFR CEILINGS TO THIS POINT. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASE WITH SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE FORECAST
AREA. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE INTO TODAY WITH
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE
CONTINUED THE PROB30 GROUP AT ALL THE TERMINALS FOR THE
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. CHANCE THAT CONVECTION LINGERS INTO
TONIGHT BUT FOR NOW THE MOST LIKELY TIMING FOR STORMS WILL BE
GENERALLY FROM 3 TO 8PM. WHILE RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
TONIGHT, THEY ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP AFTER 06Z.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SCATTERED STORMS EACH AFTERNOON
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ND
AVIATION...96
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