102
FXUS62 KCAE 071716
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
116 PM EDT SUN JUN 7 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MINOR CHANGES TO THE KEY MESSAGE. AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED
FOR 18Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. A TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN EXPECTED THIS WEEK WITH INCREASING
MOISTURE AND WARMING TEMPERATURES DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK
PERIOD.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: A TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN EXPECTED THIS WEEK WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE AND WARMING TEMPERATURES DURING THE MID TO
LATE WEEK PERIOD.
WHILE DRY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND DEEP RIDGING ALOFT WILL
CONTROL THE PATTERN, MOISTURE RETURNS WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. THE PATTERN SYNOPTICALLY WILL NOT CHANGE
ALL THAT MUCH EACH DAY, WITH 90TH PERCENTILE HEIGHTS EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE PERIOD. RAIN CHANCES HOLD OFF UNTIL
MONDAY, WHEN WE REACH SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE CLOUDS AND RAIN
SHOULD RESULT IN LOWER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY AND
ESPECIALLY TUESDAY BEFORE WE SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES RETURN TO
THE 90S DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD. SCATTERED DAYTIME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MOST DAYS THIS WEEK WITH
A FAIRLY TYPICALLY SUMMER PATTERN IN PLACE. THE COMBINATION OF
HEAT AND HUMIDITY COULD RESULT IN OUR FIRST DAYS OF HEAT INDEX
VALUES AT OR ABOVE 100 DEGREES, THOUGH STILL BELOW HEAT PRODUCT
CRITERIA. WITH THE RIDGE IN OUR VICINITY, SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
IS UNLIKELY. WHILE PWAT'S SHOULD CLIMB ABOVE 1.75", QPF TOTALS
ACROSS ALL GUIDANCE IS GENERALLY ONLY 0.25-0.75" WITH SOME
ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS IN AREAS THAT SEE REPEATED ROUNDS OF
THUNDERSTORMS.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
SCT CIRRUS CONTINUES OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON, WITH ANY VFR
CUMULUS DISSIPATING AFTER SUNSET. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS FARTHER
OFFSHORE. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND BECOME LIGHT
OVERNIGHT. WITH THE CLOUDS AND LIGHT WIND, FOG IS NOT EXPECTED.
LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS MONDAY WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 5 TO 8
KT BY LATE MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON UNDER BKN TO
OVC CIRRUS. A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST MAY
BRING ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS LATER IN THE PERIOD.
HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW FOR INCLUSION AT THIS TIME.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MOISTURE INCREASES HEADING INTO THE
WORKWEEK LEADING TO SCATTERED, MAINLY DIURNAL, SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS STARTING ON MONDAY.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...7
AVIATION...ND
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page