687
FXUS62 KCAE 310648
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
148 AM EST WED DEC 31 2025
SYNOPSIS
COLD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN INTO THE MORNING HOURS
UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FAVORED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK WITH
DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING. RAIN CHANCES RAMP UP FRIDAY NIGHT
WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED SATURDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEVELOPS TO OUR WEST. DRY WEATHER IS LIKELY FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- ELEVATED FIRE DANGER AND BREEZY WINDS LATE THIS EVENING MAY IMPACT
OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.
SKIES ARE CLEAR ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. WINDS ARE LIGHT TO
CALM, WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING THAT HAS ALREADY DROPPED
TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30. ADDITIONAL COOLING IS
EXPECTED IN THE NEW FEW HOURS, AND WIDESPREAD SUBFREEZING
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S.
UPPER TROUGHING REMAINS THE DOMINANT FEATURE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
TODAY WITH DRYING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. PW VALUES WILL REMAIN BELOW
0.5" AND RH VALUES WILL FALL TO BELOW 30 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON. SPC
MAINTAINS AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER RISK ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST
GIVEN THESE CONDITIONS.
A SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE INTO NEW ENGLAND, THROUGH THE DAY CAUSING A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THE STRONGEST
WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
ALTHOUGH DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED, WIND GUSTS MAY DISRUPT OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES PLANNED FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE TURN OF THE
NEW YEAR. MULTIPLE HI-RES MODELS SUGGEST WESTERLY GUSTS MAY RANGE
FROM 20 TO 30 MPH, PARTICULARLY OVER AREA LAKES. A LAKE WIND
ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR LATE THIS EVENING INTO EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- TEMPERATURES REACH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE EACH DAY.
- NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES LATE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN CHANCES
INCREASING INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT: THURSDAY'S SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL
BE CHARACTERIZED BY PERSISTENT TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN US AND
STRONG RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN US. TROUGHING SHOULD GRADUALLY
SHIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY WITH A SURFACE LOW LOCATED NEAR
MAINE. A DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO CREEP TOWARD
THE NORTHERN FA BY THURSDAY EVENING, STRETCHING TOWARD THE WEST
BEFORE LIKELY STALLING HERE. FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER, LOW LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD BRING HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S AND WEAKENING WINDS AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT LOOSENS. CLOUD COVER SHOULD BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE
REGION OVERNIGHT AND THUS LOW TEMPERATURES COULD FALL FAIRLY
QUICK TO THE LOW TO MID 30S INITIALLY BEFORE BECOMING STAGNATE
OR EVEN RISING TOWARD DAYBREAK AS CLOUD COVER MOVES IN.
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT: MAJORITY OF FRIDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE
DRY, THOUGH STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY MOISTURE TRANSPORT SHOULD RISE
PWAT'S FROM AROUND 0.50" IN THE MORNING TO NEAR 1" BY THE
EVENING HOURS. A SHORTWAVE WILL BE WORKING TOWARD THE REGION
THROUGH THE DAY WITH SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OCCURRING ALONG THE
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON THE EASTERN FRINGES OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. AS MOISTURE RAMPS UP, MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED, THOUGH AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD STILL REACH THE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S. DURING THE LATE EVENING, THE APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE AND DEEPENING SURFACE LOW NEAR AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED RAIN CHANCES MAY ENTER THE WESTERN FA AS UPPER FORCING
BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION AND PWAT'S NEAR 1.25". COVERAGE
IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY
MORNING, LIKELY BECOMING FAIRLY WIDESPREAD BY EARLY SATURDAY.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SATURDAY WITH NEAR TO JUST
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.
- TEMPERATURES RISE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD WITH DRIER CONDITIONS.
THE OUTLOOK FOR SATURDAY REMAINS FAIRLY SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST CYCLES WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN MUCH OF THE DAY. THE
DEEPENING SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS SC THROUGH THE
DAY WITH SOLID UPPER SUPPORT FROM THE SHORTWAVE. INTEGRATED
WATER VAPOR TRANSPORT IS DEPICTED REACHING THE NAEFS 90TH
PERCENTILE SATURDAY MORNING WITH PWAT'S REACHING 170-200% OF
NORMAL. A FAIRLY ROBUST 40-45 KT SOUTHWESTERLY LLJ IS ALSO
DEPICTED IN GLOBAL MODELS AND THUS PERIODS OF MODERATE RAINFALL
APPEAR LIKELY SATURDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON BEFORE
LIGHTENING AND TAPERING OFF DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS. SPREAD IN RAINFALL TOTALS EXISTS STILL BUT LREF AND NBM
PROBABILITIES FOR GREATER THAN 0.50" EXCEED 60% FOR MUCH OF THE
FA, ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE CSRA AND SOUTHEASTERN MIDLANDS. NBM
PROBABILITIES FOR GREATER THAN 1" IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA ARE
REACHING NEAR 50% AS WELL WITH THE DETERMINISTIC GFS AND ECMWF
BOTH SHOWING AN AREA OF TOTALS IN THE 1-1.5" RANGE. OVERALL, A
WIDESPREAD 0.50-1" SEEMS LIKELY WITH THIS EVENT WITH SPOTS OVER
1" POSSIBLE. WITH THE WIDESPREAD RAIN, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL.
BEHIND SATURDAY'S SYSTEM ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE
SHOW WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FILLING IN FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES. THERE IS SOME INDICATION A WEAK FRONT COULD NEAR
AT THE END OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD, BUT CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN
SOLUTIONS REMAINS.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
SKIES SHOULD REMAIN CLEAR THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH A
VERY DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE. WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO NEAR
CALM EARLY THIS MORNING BEFORE INCREASING FROM THE WEST TO
SOUTHWEST AROUND 8 TO 10 KNOTS AFTER 15Z. A FEW GUSTS THIS
AFTERNOON OF 18-20 KTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. WINDS DECREASE
SOME EARLY THIS EVENING, THEN PICK BACK UP TONIGHT FROM THE WEST
AT AROUND 10 KTS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT AVIATION
RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY WHEN MOISTURE BEGINS TO
RETURN AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
THURSDAY FOR SCZ016-018-020>022-025>031-035-037-038-041-
115-116-135>137.
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
THURSDAY FOR GAZ040-063>065-077.
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