326
FXUS62 KCAE 142347
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
747 PM EDT MON SEP 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL USHER IN DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
AIR THROUGH THE MIDDLE TO END OF THIS WEEK.
- 2. INCREASING MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES BY THE END OF THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL USHER IN DRIER AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR THROUGH THE MIDDLE TO END OF THIS WEEK.
THE FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY ON TRACK OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS, WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE PATTERN SET TO UNFOLD. STRONG 500 HPA
RIDGING IS BUILDING INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS, WITH HEIGHTS
ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR BY TUES/WED, WHICH IS
CONSISTENT WITH ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. A STRONG SURFACE HIGH IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE NORTHEASTERN US AND MID-ATLANTIC OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, YIELDING A BACKDOOR FRONT PROGGED TO
PUSH THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. PERSISTENT SURFACE RIDGING IS
FORECAST TO HANG AROUND THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, WITH
SEASONALLY LOW PW AIR AND VERY PLEASANT AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS
THROUGH FRIDAY. COMBINE THIS WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE DIRECTLY
BENEATH THE UPPER RIDGE AND WE ARE LOOKING AT A NICE WEEK ACROSS
THE AREA. TODAY WILL BE THE LAST REALLY HOT DAY AS HEIGHTS RISE
& WE EXPERIENCE SOME COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AHEAD OF THE
BACKDOOR FRONT, WITH HIGHS FORECAST IN THE MID 90S. BEHIND THIS
FRONT, WE SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90
TUES/WED/THUR, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS DIPPING INTO THE MID 60S
GIVEN THE DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE. THIS IS NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR, A NICE REPRIEVE FROM WHAT WE HAVE SEEN THE PAST
FEW WEEKS. BY LATE WEEK, AN INVERTED UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
UNDERCUT THE STRONG RIDGE AND MOVE SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA.
THIS DOESN'T LOOK TO YIELD RAIN ACROSS THE AREA THOUGH, SO
PRECIP CHANCES LOOK LOW THROUGH AT LEAST THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND.
KEY MESSAGE 2: INCREASING MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES BY THE END
OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE PERSISTENT UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN BY THE
WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA FROM NORTH
SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOUTHERLY FLOW TO RETURN AND
INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH. SEASONALLY HIGH PW AIR WILL
RETURN WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER-60S TO
LOW-70S. AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS WEEKEND, LOWS IN THE LOW 70S
AND HIGHS MAY REACH THE MID 90S WITH FEELS LIKE TEMPERATURES
APPROACHING THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100. THERE MAY BE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION (15-30%) SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, BUT THE
GREATEST LIKELIHOOD APPEARS EARLY NEXT WEEK (30-50%).
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD, ALTHOUGH SOME MVFR CEILINGS
COULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND A
DRY FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST BUT REMAIN LIGHT OVERNIGHT
BEFORE PICKING UP AFTER AROUND 09Z-10Z TO AROUND 5 TO 7 KNOTS.
HI-RES GUIDANCE AND SREF TO A DEGREE IS SHOWING POTENTIAL FOR
MVFR STRATUS TO DEVELOP DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS SO HAVE
INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR NOW TO HIGHLIGHT THIS POSSIBILITY,
GENERALLY FROM 10Z-15Z TIME FRAME. ANY STRATUS SHOULD DISSIPATE
INTO A BROKEN VFR CIG THROUGH 16-18Z THEN MIX OUT WITH DRIER AIR
AND DEEP MIXING EXPECTED. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN 5 TO 10 KNOTS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON THEN DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RAIN AND RESTRICTIONS UNLIKELY FOR
MUCH OF THE WEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...NS
AVIATION...23
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