529
FXUS62 KCAE 221043
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
643 AM EDT SUN MAR 22 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION UPDATED FOR 12Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS EXPECTED SUNDAY & MONDAY
AHEAD OF FRONT THAT WILL BRING SOME CONDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL.
- 2. AFTER MONDAY, EXTENDED DRY AND SEASONAL WEATHER EXPECTED
WITH SOME INCREASING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS EXPECTED SUNDAY & MONDAY
AHEAD OF FRONT THAT WILL BRING SOME CONDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL.
BROAD RIDGING FROM THE SURFACE TO ALOFT TO OUR SOUTHWEST WILL
PUSH TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 80'S BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY. BREEZY
SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 20-25 MPH ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH DEEP
MIXING AND 850MB TEMPS AROUND 15 C AND AGAIN EARLY MONDAY. WHILE
NOT QUITE RECORD HIGHS, THIS WILL YIELD SURFACE TEMPS NEARLY 20
DEGREE ABOVE AVERAGE TOPPING OUT AROUND 90 F.
A SOUTHWARD SINKING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND BRING SOME THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL TO THE
I-20 CORRIDOR AND SOUTH; A MARGINAL RISK CONTINUES FOR THESE
AREAS. OVERALL, THIS IS A HIGHLY CONDITIONAL SEVERE SETUP WITH
NUMEROUS FACTORS THAT NEED LINE UP SPATIALLY AND TEMPORALLY IN
ORDER TO SEE ANY SEVERE THREAT. INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WILL ONLY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A SEVERE THREAT BRIEFLY IN THE
AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT IS NOT
TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE; DURING PEAK HEATING HREF AND EC-GFS
GENERALLY PRODUCES A BRIEF SWATH OF 800-1200 ML CAPE MID-MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THE MESOSCALE FORCING FROM THE FRONT WILL BE FAIRLY
STRONG GIVEN THE THERMAL GRADIENT BUT SYNOPTICALLY THERE IS
NOTABLE DRY AIR ABOVE 700MB, SO INITIATION WILL BE INSTABILITY
DEPENDENT. SO THE BEST CHANCE FOR THE FRONTAL FORCING,
INITIATION, AND INSTABILITY DEVELOPMENT TO LINE UP WILL BE IN
THE MID AFTERNOON, GENERALLY SOUTH OF I-20. DEEP LAYER SHEAR
SOUTH OF THE FRONT, ALONG WITH HIGH DCAPE, WILL ALLOW FOR ANY
DEEP CONVECTIVE STORMS THAT DO DEVELOPMENT TO POSE A SEVERE
THREAT.
KEY MESSAGE 2: AFTER MONDAY, EXTENDED DRY AND WARMING WEATHER
EXPECTED WITH SOME INCREASING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
LONGER TERM LOOKS RATHER UNREMARKABLE WITH STEADILY WARMING
TEMPS AND GENERALLY LOW RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK BEHIND THE FRONT. THE FRONT FROM MONDAY WILL BRING COOLER
TEMPS TO THE AREA AND STALL CLOSE ENOUGH THAT A FEW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE CSRA TUESDAY. TEMPS WILL THEN STEADILY CLIMB
FROM SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TUESDAY TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE AGAIN
BY FRIDAY.
GIVEN THE PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR AND PARTICULARLY
FOLLOWING MONDAY'S FRONT, WE ARE ENTERING A PERIOD OF INCREASING
FIRE DANGER CONCERNS GIVEN THE LINGERING DROUGHT CONDITIONS.
WINDS SPEED OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST WILL GUST TO AROUND 20-25 MPH
SUNDAY AND MONDAY, BUT THE WINDS SHOULD WEAKEN BEHIND THE FRONT
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. WHILE WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER, RH'S WILL FALL
BELOW 30% TUESDAY.
AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE 24HR FORECAST PERIOD.
PERSISTENT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO DAY IN THE WAKE OF
A PASSING SHORTWAVE THIS MORNING, KEEPING FAIR WEATHER OVER THE AREA
TODAY. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
INCREASE TODAY WITH DEEP MIXING EXPECTED AS WINDS PICK UP TO AROUND
10 KNOTS BY 15Z THEN A BIT STRONGER THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS
20 TO 25 KNOTS. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED SAVE FOR SOME
PASSING THIN CIRRUS. WIND GUSTS SHOULD SUBSIDE WITH SUNSET BUT
AN INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL
KEEP WINDS UP AROUND 7 TO 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A MORE SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH ON MONDAY, WITH A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE FOR RESTRICTIONS.
OVERALL, CONDITIONS WILL BE MOST LIKELY VFR FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION...23
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