173
FXUS62 KCAE 211728
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
128 PM EDT SUN JUN 21 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
REFRESHED KEY MESSAGE 1 AND ADDED MORE DETAILS ON THE POTENTIAL
FOR HAZARDOUS WEATHER ON MONDAY. AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED
FOR 18Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN EXPECTED THIS WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN EXPECTED THIS
WEEK.
MIDDAY TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 80S ACROSS THE FA, ON TRACK TO
REACH THE LOWER 90S IN MOST LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON. THE
INCREASE IN MOISTURE IS EVIDENT WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND
WIDESPREAD SCATTERED CUMULUS. WHILE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN FOCUSED IN
THE COASTAL PLAIN THUS FAR TODAY, ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE, MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS
AND CSRA.
RAIN CHANCES ARE HIGHER ON MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE REGION. THE LATEST DAY 2 SPC SWO PLACES MUCH OF THE CWA IN A
MARGINAL (1/5) RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER, WITH A SLIGHT (2/5) RISK
GRAZING THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FA. SHOULD THUNDERSTORMS BECOME
SEVERE, DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE HAZARD.
WITH ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWATS AND LONG SKINNY CAPE PROFILES
APPEARING IN MODELED SOUNDINGS THERE WILL ALSO BE THE POTENTIAL
FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING FROM ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOP.
A SERIES OF WEAK, MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH
WEAK BOUNDARIES PASSING JUST NORTH OF OUR AREA. THIS PATTERN IS
TYPICAL FOR JUNE, WITH FRONTS STRUGGLING TO REACH THE REGION.
AS A RESULT, EXPECT SUMMERLIKE WEATHER TO DOMINATE WITH HOT AND
HUMID CONDITIONS ACCOMPANIED BY ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LATE NEXT WEEK, A STRONGER UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD
OVER THE FOUR CORNERS, PROMOTING BROADER TROUGHING ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS. THIS PATTERN MAY SUPPORT A MORE ORGANIZED WEATHER
SYSTEM AFFECTING THE AREA, THOUGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW REGARDING
TIMING AND EVOLUTION.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS STILL EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
SOME THIN CIRRUS ALONG WITH AFTERNOON MID-LEVEL VFR SCATTERED
CUMULUS FIELD SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY CLOUDS THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS AT ALL SITES. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS
AFTERNOON DOES SHOW AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SPINNING IN THE
CUMULUS FIELDS ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL GEORGIA, AND THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK OFF TO THE EAST THROUGH THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH
MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY AS THIS LOW MOVES EAST, A FEW
CONVECTIVE MODELS DO SHOW THERE REMAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM TO DEVELOP, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
AGS/DNL/AIK/OGB WHERE MOISTURE IS A LITTLE DEEPER. CONFIDENCE IS
NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO PLACE IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME, BUT IT WILL BE
MONITORED. TOWARDS SUNSET, EXPECTING THE CUMULUS FIELD TO
DISSIPATE ALONG WITH ANY RAINFALL, WITH ONLY THE CIRRUS
OVERNIGHT. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL MAY BECOME POSSIBLE NEAR THE END
OF THE TAF PERIOD AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER LOW AND SURFACE TROUGH.
SOUTHERLY WINDS AT MOST SITES THIS AFTERNOON TURNING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE BY SUNSET. BY 13Z MONDAY MORNING, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BEGIN INCREASING TO BETWEEN 5-10 KNOTS. BY LATE MORNING
SUSTAINED WINDS WILL TOP 10 KNOTS, WITH WIND GUSTS UPWARDS OF 20
KNOTS POSSIBLE AT ALL SITES AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
AND WINDS ALOFT BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A STRONG LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS
COULD MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON OR
EVENING. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK, DIURNALLY-DRIVEN WIDELY
SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...7
AVIATION...73
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