933
FXUS62 KCAE 031758
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
158 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ADDED MENTION OF POSSIBLE ISOLATED STRONGER STORMS ON TUESDAY
TO KEY MESSAGE #1. AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 18Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE EACH DAY THIS WEEK
AS TEMPERATURES HOVER AROUND AVERAGE. A COUPLE STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
- 1. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE EACH DAY THIS WEEK
AS TEMPERATURES HOVER AROUND AVERAGE. A COUPLE STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY.
THE UPPER TROUGH IS CLEARLY VISIBLE IN WV IMAGERY AS IT BECOMES
INCREASINGLY CLOSED OFF FROM THE SYNOPTIC FLOW. THE DRY SLOT OF
THIS DEVELOPING MID LEVEL LOW IS SEEN OVER THE UPSTATE AND INTO
THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS. THIS HAS LED TO A TIGHT PWAT GRADIENT
ACROSS THE FA WITH GOES DERIVED PWAT'S NEAR 2.20" IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN MIDLANDS, DECREASING TO 1.60-1.80" TOWARD THE
NORTHERN MIDLANDS. A DIFFUSE BUT WEAK FRONT HAS ALSO BECOME
NEARLY STALLED IN THE UPSTATE. FORCING FROM THE TROUGH IS
BRINGING SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHERN GA, WHICH IS
GRADUALLY EXPANDING INTO THE SOUTHERN CSRA AND SOUTHEASTERN
MIDLANDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS ARE EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING WHERE THE MAIN RISK IS
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED INSTANCES OF FLASH
FLOODING IF TRAINING OCCURS.
THE MID LEVEL LOW IS PROGGED TO MEANDER THROUGH NORTHERN GA
TOWARD THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAY'S WITH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WORKING BACK INTO THE
FA, THOUGH SOME MID LEVEL DRY AIR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN
PLACE, ESPECIALLY TUESDAY. COOLING MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES/STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES TUESDAY SHOULD
BRING SOLID CAPE PROFILES WITH NEAR 2000-2500 J/KG OF SBCAPE
DEVELOPING AS EFFECTIVE SHEAR NEARS 20-30 KTS. GENEROUS BL
MIXING IS ALSO EXPECTED TO YIELD DCAPE AROUND 800-1200 J/KG.
OVERALL, FORCING FROM THE LOW IN THIS ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO
BRING MORE SCATTERED CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EVENING TUESDAY WHERE AN ISOLATED STRONG TO MARGINALLY
SEVERE STORM COULD BE POSSIBLE, BRINGING THE RISK OF DAMAGING
DOWNBURST WIND GUSTS. WEDNESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE SET UP FAIRLY
SIMILAR AS THE LOW REMAINS IN THE REGION, BUT THE RISK FOR
STRONGER STORMS SEEMS A BIT LOWER. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY BE
PICKED UP IN THE SYNOPTIC FLOW AS A ROBUST RIDGE NEAR THE NAEFS
CLIMATOLOGICAL MAX BUILDS OFF THE EAST COAST. THE RIDGE SHOULD
ALLOW DEEP SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO PERSIST LATE IN
THE WEEK AND INTO THIS WEEKEND, KEEPING PWAT'S DURING THIS
PERIOD NEAR 2" WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND DIURNALLY DRIVEN
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS EACH DAY.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL INTO THIS EVENING OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTIVELY
DRIVEN RESTRICTIONS. SOME STRATUS AND FOG IS POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING WHICH MAY LEAD TO MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNRISE.
THE DEEPEST MOISTURE HAS SHIFTED EAST TOWARD THE COAST EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON WITH CIGS RETURNING TO VFR ALMOST EVERYWHERE.
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND SHOULD INCREASE TO AROUND 6 TO 8 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED TODAY
BUT COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE A BIT LESS AND MAY FAVOR THE EASTERN
MIDLANDS. BRIEF RESTRICTIONS REMAIN POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER
STORMS ALONG WITH A FEW ELEVATED WIND GUSTS OF 20-25 KTS.
ENVIRONMENT SEEMS FAVORABLE FOR SOME SORT OF RESTRICTIONS AGAIN
TONIGHT, PARTICULARLY GIVEN LIGHT WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER,
BUT GUIDANCE IS INCONSISTENT WITH WHERE FOG/STRATUS MAY DEVELOP.
FOR NOW HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO GROUPS FOR RESTRICTIONS IN THE
LATTER HALF OF THE TAF PERIOD AT THE MORE PRONE SITES OF
AGS/DNL/AIK THAT WILL NEED ADDITIONAL REFINEMENT WITH SUBSEQUENT
FORECAST PACKAGES. FOR TUESDAY, VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN BY
LATE MORNING/MIDDAY AS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS FIRE UP
AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PERIODIC SHOWERS-STORMS EXPECTED IN THE
AFTERNOONS THIS WEEK ALONG WITH CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN THE
MORNINGS.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DH
AVIATION...EC
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