188
FXUS62 KCAE 161743
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
143 PM EDT FRI OCT 16 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM EARLY SATURDAY MORNING
THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 18Z
TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION
TONIGHT, USHERING IN COOLER WEATHER THIS WEEKEND. BREEZY TO
GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH A LAKE WIND
ADVISORY BEING HOISTED.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: A STRONG COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH THROUGH
THE REGION TONIGHT, USHERING IN COOLER WEATHER THIS WEEKEND. BREEZY
TO GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH A LAKE WIND
ADVISORY BEING HOISTED.
A STRONG COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE WEST
CURRENTLY. IT IS PUSHING EASTWARD ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS
CURRENTLY, WITH STRONG, SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS PRESENT AHEAD OF IT.
TEMPS ARE (AGAIN) IN THE UPPER 80S THIS AFTERNOON, POISED TO
MAKE ANOTHER RUN AT 90F THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN THE STRONG WARM
ADVECTION AND COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
AS WE GET INTO THE FORECAST PERIOD TONIGHT, THE FRONT IS
FORECAST TO RACE ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 10P AND 3A. A STRONG,
ROBUST WIND SHIFT IS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THIS WITH GUSTS
UPWARDS OF 30-35 MPH EXPECTED. ADDITIONALLY, THE FRONT IS TAKING
ON A BIT OF AN ANAFRONT STRUCTURE BY THIS POINT AS STRONG
SYNOPTIC FORCING OVERSPREADS THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT. AS SUCH,
PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP RELATIVELY QUICKLY ACROSS
THE AREA. A QUICK BURST OF RAIN IS EXPECTED BETWEEN 06Z AND 15Z
ACROSS THE AREA, WITH THIS MOVING EASTWARD AS SYNOPTIC FORCING
SHIFTS EASTWARD. A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SETUP ACROSS
THE AREA THEREAFTER, YIELDING STRONG NORTHEASTERLY WINDS FOR
MOST OF SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL RESULT
IN TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S SATURDAY (AT BEST) AND
ONLY THE LOW 60S ON SUNDAY. BOTH EFI FOR TEMPS HAS TRENDED
TOWARDS A COOL SIGNAL THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK, ADDING
CONFIDENCE TO WELL BELOW NORMAL HIGHS AND LOWS SETTLING OVER THE
AREA. ALSO, BECAUSE OF THE FREQUENT WIND GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH
EXPECTED BOTH DAYS, A LONGER DURATION LAKE WIND ADVISORY HAS
BEEN ISSUED THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. BOATERS ON AREA LAKES SHOULD
BE CAUTIOUS, ESPECIALLY IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS WARM
LAKE WATERS WILL ALLOW STRONGER WIND GUSTS TO PERSIST OVER THE
LAKES AT NIGHT. NEXT WEEK LOOKS BEAUTIFUL WITH LARGE DAILY
DIURNAL SPREADS OWING TO A VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE. HIGHS IN
THE LOW TO MID 70S AND LOWS IN THE 40S ARE LIKELY THROUGHOUT
MUCH OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 06Z THEN SOME COLD
ADVECTION STRATUS EXPECTED SATURDAY MORNING.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING SOME CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE
REGION AND DEEP MIXING HAS RESULTED IN GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH A BIT
AND LOSE THE GUSTS WITH SUNSET THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS UNTIL A
STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION LATER TONIGHT. WINDS
WILL PICK UP AND BECOME GUSTY FROM THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
FRONT DURING THE 07-10Z TIME FRAME WITH GUSTS PUSHING ABOVE 20
KNOTS. SOME LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT
NOT CONFIDENT IN VSBY RESTRICTIONS. GUIDANCE IS TRENDING TO A
PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS BEHIND THE FRONT WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION.
MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER THROUGH LATE MORNING HOURS BUT SHOULD
IMPROVE BACK TO VFR NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD FOR ALL
TERMINALS EXCEPT MAYBE OGB.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND DUE TO AN INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH A
DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 AM SATURDAY TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR
SCZ016-018-020>022-025>031-035-037-038-041-115-116-
135>137.
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 AM SATURDAY TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR
GAZ040-063>065-077.
DISCUSSION...PL
AVIATION...23
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page