714
FXUS62 KCAE 151054
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
654 AM EDT TUE SEP 15 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION UPDATED FOR 12Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL USHER IN DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
AIR THROUGH THE MIDDLE TO END OF THIS WEEK.
- 2. INCREASING MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES BY THE END OF THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL USHER IN DRIER AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR THROUGH THE MIDDLE TO END OF THIS WEEK.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH IN THE PATTERN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. EXTREME 500 HPA RIDGE REMAINS SETTLED OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN US, WITH NAEFS AND LREF 500 HPA HEIGHTS AT THE
100TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. DESPITE THIS, OUR
WEATHER LOOKS QUITE PLEASANT THROUGH FRIDAY OWING TO A BACKDOOR
FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY MARCHING THROUGH THE AREA. HIGHS LOOK
CLOSER TO NORMAL - IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S - OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS BUT THE HUMIDITY WILL BE THE MAJOR STORY. BELOW
NORMAL PWS, PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE, AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WILL RESULT
IN FAIRLY ROBUST MIXING OF THE DRY AIRMASS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CAROLINAS. AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS WED/THUR ARE EXPECTED TO FALL
INTO THE 50S, AND THIS DRY AIRMASS WILL FOSTER LOWS EACH MORNING
IN THE 60S! IT WILL BE A BRIEF REPRIEVE BUT A WELL DESERVED ONE
NONETHELESS.
KEY MESSAGE 2: INCREASING MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES BY THE END
OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE PERSISTENT UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN BY THE
WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA FROM NORTH
SATURDAY. A WEAK INVERTED UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO RETROGRADE
BENEATH THE UPPER RIDGE AND INTO THE NORTHERN GULF BY THE
WEEKEND. THE COMBINATION OF THESE TWO THINGS WILL LEAD TO AN
INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW, WITH LREF MEMBERS ALL
SHOWING 75TH-85TH PERCENTILE PWS ARRIVING BACK IN THE AREA BY
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE INVERTED TROUGH IS LIKELY TO SLOWLY LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER LIKELY TO
RETURN AS A RESULT.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
MVFR CEILINGS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
RETURN.
MVFR CEILINGS HAVE DEVELOPED AT ALL TERMINALS, EXCEPT AGS/DNL
WITH SHALLOW MOISTURE BENEATH RELATIVELY DEEPER DRY AIR. EXPECT
MVFR CEILINGS TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS DRIER
AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND A COLD FRONT, SCOURING OUT THE LOWER
CLOUDS WITH VFR CUMULUS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. WINDS
WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE EAST BETWEEN 5 TO 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE
DAY, BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT. WITH DRIER AIR IN
PLACE TONIGHT, EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RAIN AND RESTRICTIONS UNLIKELY FOR
MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
THIS WEEKEND.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...PL
AVIATION...96
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