179
FXUS62 KCAE 101755
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
155 PM EDT MON AUG 10 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA,
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW OF THEM BECOMING STRONG. DEW POINTS
HAVE TRENDED A BIT COOLER FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. ISOLATED DIURNAL STORMS POSSIBLE EACH DAY THIS WEEK, WITH
DIMINISHING CHANCES MIDWEEK. A STRONG STORM CANNOT BE RULED
OUT.
- 2. INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED THIS WEEK,
ESPECIALLY BY THE MID TO LATE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
- 1. ISOLATED DIURNAL STORMS POSSIBLE EACH DAY THIS WEEK, WITH
DIMINISHING CHANCES MIDWEEK. A STRONG STORM CANNOT BE RULED
OUT.
SOME THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP ALONG A RESIDUAL
BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. A COUPLE OF THESE HAVE BECOME STRONG, BUT THE SEVERE
THREAT CONTINUES TO LOOK LOW DUE TO A LACK OF SHEAR.
THERE REMAINS RELATIVELY MINIMAL CHANGE WITH THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE IN TERMS OF RAIN/STORM CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEK.
MAINTENANCE OF DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AMIDST ROBUST
HEATING EACH DAY IS EXPECTED TO YIELD SEASONABLE TO STRONG
INSTABILITY DURING THE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WEAK
EMBEDDED PERTURBATION MAY AID IN BRINGING ADDITIONAL COVERAGE
THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE COVERAGE IS A BIT MORE SPOTTY TO ISOLATED
DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK AS FORCING FROM MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES
REMAINS JUST NORTH OF FA. GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY INDICATE
RISING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS
RIDGING STRENGTHENS OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH A SHORTWAVE
RIDGE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES, BUT THERE CONTINUES TO BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR WEAK TROUGHING MOVING IN THIS WEEKEND. THERE IS
ALSO THE POSSIBILITY FOR A DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO NEAR FA
BY THIS WEEKEND AS WELL. CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN
THIS HOWEVER, AS SEEN IN THE GENEROUS SPREAD ACROSS THE LREF'S
FOUR CLUSTERS. OVERALL, THE POTENTIAL FOR INCREASED RAIN CHANCES
EXISTS BY THIS WEEKEND, BUT CONFIDENCE IN REALIZING THIS IS LOW
AT THE MOMENT. AS IS TYPICAL WITH OUR DIURNAL PULSE CONVECTION,
A STRONG STORM OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH THE RISK OF
STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS, BUT WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS
UNLIKELY.
- 2. INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED THIS WEEK,
ESPECIALLY BY THE MID TO LATE WEEK.
STRENGTHENING RIDGING JUST TO OUR WEST THROUGH THE WEEK SHOULD
AID IN BRINGING A WARMING TREND WITH 500MB HEIGHTS PEAKING AT
THE NAEFS 97.5TH PERCENTILE LATE IN THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES
LIKELY REACH THE MID TO UPPER 90S EACH DAY TUESDAY THROUGH AT
LEAST FRIDAY. PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE PERIPHERY OF
A BERMUDA HIGH SHOULD ALSO AID IN KEEPING PWAT'S NEAR 2" AND
SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. HOWEVER, DEW POINTS ARE
HAVE TRENDED DOWNWARD FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE LATEST
GUIDANCE. WITH THE EXPECTED LOWER COVERAGE OF DIURNAL
CONVECTION EACH DAY, CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN HEAT INDICES ABOVE
100F DURING THIS PERIOD. THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAT INDICES ABOVE
105F AND POSSIBLY NEARING ADVISORY CRITERIA (108F) INCREASE
DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK WITH LREF PROBABILITIES FOR INDICES
ABOVE 105F REMAIN BETWEEN 30-50% ON THURSDAY BEFORE INCREASING
TO 50-70% FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS SIGNAL IS ALSO SUPPORTED IN
THE LATEST EC EFI WHERE VALUES OF AROUND 0.90 ARE SEEN FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. IT IS WORTH NOTING THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE SYNOPTIC
PATTERN AND THUS RAIN CHANCES THIS WEEKEND BRINGS LARGE NBM IQR
SPREADS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY (8-10 DEGREES). EITHER WAY,
HOT/HUMID CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY MOST OF THIS WEEK WITH
INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN HEAT INDICES EXCEEDING 105F BY THE MID
TO LATE WEEK. WITH THE PERSISTENCE OF HEAT THIS WEEK, BE SURE TO
TAKE HEAT SAFETY PRECAUTIONS.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
TEMPORARY VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS IN AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY. HIGHEST COVERAGE EXPECTED AT AGS/DNL/AIK AND OGB.
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON HAS BEEN MUCH HIGHER IN THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THAN CAMS HAD SHOWN. SOUTH OF
I-20, NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE
TEMPORARY VIS RESTRICTIONS FROM PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN FROM
THUNDERSTORMS. STORMS WILL DIMINISH NEAR SUNSET BUT WE SHOULD
STILL SEE A LINGERING SHOWER/STORM THROUGH THE EVENING.
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS SHOULD HINDER FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT
AGAIN TONIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE ALREADY FAVORED CONTINUED VFR
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. SINCE THERE WILL LIKELY BE MORE CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS CLOUDS THAN MODELS HAD, THIS INCREASES CONFIDENCE IN VFR
TAFS. THAT SAID, WE MAY STILL SEE BRIEF EARLY MORNING FOG
DEVELOP AROUND 11Z OR AT SITES THAT RECEIVE DECENT RAINFALL THIS
AFTERNOON. LIGHT W OR WSW WINDS EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AROUND 01Z OR 02Z.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A HOT AND DRIER WEATHER PATTERN
DEVELOPS THROUGH THE WEEK. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL BE LOW AS
HIGHS PUSH INTO THE UPPER 90S.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...29
AVIATION...CJR
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