086
FXUS62 KCAE 022348
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
748 PM EDT TUE JUN 2 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
REMOVED WORDING REGARDING THIS AFTERNOON IN KEY MESSAGE 1.
COOLEST OVERNIGHT LOWS IN SOME TIME POSSIBLE TONIGHT. AVIATION
DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 00Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. SHOWER CHANCES COME TO AN END THIS EVENING WITH DRIER
CONDITIONS MOVING IN OVERNIGHT.
- 2. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: SHOWER CHANCES COME TO AN END THIS EVENING WITH
MUCH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS MOVING IN OVERNIGHT.
A COUPLE STRAY SHOWERS ARE WORKING THROUGH THE FA AT THE MOMENT,
BUT THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO COME TO AN END IN THE COMING
2-4 HOURS AS DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE IN.
PWAT'S ARE ALREADY DROPPING TO UNDER 1" ACROSS THE NORTHERN
MIDLANDS AND THE PEE DEE AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO FALL TOWARD
0.50-0.75" INTO WEDNESDAY.
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN, CLOUD COVER
GRADUALLY CLEARS, AND WEAK 850MB CAA PERSISTS, DECENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD YIELD THE COOLEST OVERNIGHT LOWS SEEN
IN AWHILE, TOWARD THE LOW TO MID 50S. I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
IF MORE SHELTERED LOCATIONS NEAR THE UPPER 40S. WHILE RECORD LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPLICITLY FORECAST, WE COULD FALL WITHIN
2-5 DEGREES OF THEM. THE RECORD LOW ON JUNE 3RD FOR CAE IS 49F
AND 51F FOR AGS WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST BEING 54F AT CAE AND
53F AT AGS.
KEY MESSAGE 2: A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO THIS
WEEKEND.
THE COOL AND DRY AIRMASS WHICH WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY WILL LEAD TO ONE MORE DAY OF WELL BELOW TEMPERATURES.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN QUICKLY BUILD OVER THE AREA WITH PW VALUES
HOVERING AROUND 40-60% OF NORMAL INTO SATURDAY. MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT, WITH SMALL NBM INTERQUARTILE RANGES, FOR A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND BACK TO NEAR-NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES BY FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE....
RADAR IMAGERY THIS EVENING SHOWS A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS
THE REGION BUT THESE ARE NOT EXPECTED TO CAUSE ANY RESTRICTIONS
TO THE TERMINALS. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO WIND DOWN AS
THE EVENING GOES ON AND DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION. SKIES
SHOULD ALSO CLEAR OUT. WINDS SHOULD ALSO DIMINISH TONIGHT THOUGH
THEY SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY OUT OF THE NORTHEAST. NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS INCREASE AGAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING UNDER CLEAR SKIES.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...DRIER AIR RETURNS TO THE REGION MID
TO LATE WEEK WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...EC/DH
AVIATION...7
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