776
FXUS62 KCAE 140620
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
220 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ANOTHER LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL RISK MAY
MATERIALIZE TODAY IN AREAS THAT REALIZED HIGHER END AMOUNTS ON
MONDAY. WEDNESDAY HAS TRENDED A BIT DRIER. AVIATION DISCUSSION
UPDATED FOR 06Z TAF.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE
AGAIN TODAY BEFORE CHANCES BECOME MORE SPOTTY WEDNESDAY.
WARMING TEMPERATURES AND RETURNING DIURNAL RAIN CHANCES
EXPECTED FOR THE LATE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY BEFORE CHANCES BECOME MORE SPOTTY
WEDNESDAY. WARMING TEMPERATURES AND RETURNING DIURNAL RAIN
CHANCES EXPECTED FOR THE LATE WEEK.
AFTER MULTIPLE ACTIVE DAYS, THINGS LOOK TO SLOWLY WIND DOWN
INTO THE MID WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING COOLER THAN
NORMAL. AS OF WRITING THIS, THE ATMOSPHERE HAS BECOME
INCREASINGLY WORKED OVER AND THUS RAIN RATES IN LINGERING
ACTIVITY HAVE DIMINISHED SIGNIFICANTLY, LARGELY BRINGING THE
MAIN FLASH FLOOD RISK TO AN END. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPEARS TO
HAVE SANK SOUTH OF THE CSRA NOW, BUT LINGERING MID LEVEL
FORCING WITH PWATS NEAR 2.20-2.30" SHOULD CONTINUE TO DRIVE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN CHANCES INTO THE EARLY PARTS OF THE
MORNING. DURING THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING, MUCAPE ON
THE ORDER OF 1000-1800 J/KG SHOULD BE ABLE TO DEVELOP AS
DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AND PWAT'S STICK AROUND
2.25". THIS SHOULD YIELD MORE SCATTERED CONVECTION, MAINLY ALONG
AND WEST OF THE I-26 CORRIDOR, WHERE THE OVERALL SEVERE RISK IS
LOW BUT A LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL RISK WILL ONCE AGAIN EXIST.
THIS RISK IS WORTH MONITORING ESPECIALLY IN PARTS OF THE CSRA
AND SOUTHEASTERN MIDLANDS AS THESE LOCATIONS PICKED UP 2-4.5" OF
RAINFALL WITH MONDAY'S ACTIVITY. SOUNDINGS REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR
THIS RISK WITH THE LONG/SKINNY CAPE PROFILES AND MOIST
ADIABATIC CONDITIONS. WHILE HREF LPMM AMOUNTS ARE NOT NEARLY AS
AGGRESSIVE AS WHAT WAS SEEN YESTERDAY, SPOTS OF 1.50-3.50"
CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN SLOW MOVING CLUSTERS OR TRAINING
CONVECTION ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. THESE LOCALIZED HIGHER
AMOUNTS ARE ALSO SUPPORTED IN THE 00Z CAM SUITE. IT IS WORTH
NOTING THAT DESPITE THE LOWER SEVERE RISK, ANTECEDENT HIGH SOIL
MOISTURES IN PARTS OF THE FA COULD MAKE SOME TREES MORE
SUSCEPTIBLE TO FALLING IN SUB-SEVERE WIND GUSTS FROM CONVECTION.
THE MAIN CHANGE COMES WEDNESDAY WITH GUIDANCE TRENDING A BIT
DRIER AS THE FRONT REMAINS SOUTH OF THE AREA AND ANY FORCING THE
MID LEVEL LOW RETROGRADES OUT OF THE REGION. THE AXIS OF PWAT'S
NEAR 2.25" IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY PIVOT OUT OF THE FA TOWARD THE
WEST, BUT PWAT'S NEAR 2" STILL MAY AID IN BRINGING AT LEAST
ISOLATED ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOON. HEADING INTO THE LATE
WEEK, ENSEMBLES AND GLOBAL MODELS DEPICT AN ELONGATED UPPER
RIDGE STRETCHING FROM THE CENTRAL CONUS, TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY.
THIS MAY AID IN BRINGING WEAK HEIGHT RISES TO THE FA AS LOW
LEVEL SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BRINGS BACK 850MB TEMPS
NEAR THE NAEFS 90TH PERCENTILE. THIS SETUP SHOULD SUPPORT
WARMING TEMPERATURES NEAR TO JUST ABOVE NORMAL LATE THIS WEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND. MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY SEASONABLE,
THUS CANNOT RULE OUT TYPICAL DIURNAL CONVECTION CHANCES,
ESPECIALLY BY THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
A MIX OF CONDITIONS CONTINUES EARLY THIS MORNING AS
PRECIPITATION IS GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF. WIDESPREAD MVFR AND
IFR CEILING RESTRICTIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST
DAYBREAK.
WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR EASTERLY/NORTHEASTERLY
THIS MORNING. GIVEN THE COVERAGE OF RAIN OVER THE LAST 6-8
HOURS, PLUS AN ALREADY MOISTURE RICH AIRMASS IN PLACE, GUIDANCE
IS QUITE AGGRESSIVE WITH IFR CIGS AT ALL THE TAF SITES. THIS
MAKES SENSE FROM A PATTERN RECOGNITION STANDPOINT AND HAVE THE
FORECAST REFLECTING SUCH. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME BRIEF LIFR
CONDITIONS AS WELL. STILL EXPECT THAT MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL HOLD
ON THROUGH MIDDAY WITH NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5-8 KTS
PERSISTING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY AT THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS OF
AGS/DNL/OGB IN PARTICULAR. LESS CONFIDENCE AT CAE/CUB/AIK.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A GOOD CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED
THROUGH AT LEAST TODAY. THE THREAT FOR RESTRICTIONS EASES
WEDNESDAY INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS CONDITIONS BEGIN TO DRY
OUT.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DH
AVIATION...EC
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