601
FXUS62 KCAE 121733
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
133 PM EDT SAT SEP 12 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SLIGHT TWEAKS TO TODAY'S FORECAST ALONG WITH 18Z AVIATION
UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
- 2. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LAST INTO NEXT WEEK WITH DRIER
CONDITIONS RETURNING.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
CLEARLY SEEN IN THE WATER VAPOR, UPPER TROUGHING CONTINUES TO
MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS, WITH
RICH MOISTURE CONTINUING TO ADVECT INTO CENTRAL GA THIS
AFTERNOON. PW WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ABOVE 1.8" AND
EVENTUALLY SURPASS 2" IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. CONVECTIVE TEMPS
ARE FORECAST IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON, AND COMBINED WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH
THE REGION, THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO GO ANOTHER ROUND BUT NOT UNTIL LATER THIS
AFTERNOON THANKS TO LINGERING MORNING STRATUS; LIKELY BEST
TIMING FOR ANY STRONGER CONVECTION WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL 4PM OR
LATER. THAT SAID, COMPARED TO FRIDAY, DCAPE VALUES ARE LARGELY
UNIMPRESSIVE AND ANY DOWNBURSTS WILL LIKELY BE FORCED MAINLY BY
PRECIP LOADING. ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE AND CONVECTION
STILL IN WESTERN GA, CAMS DEPICT MORE OF A LINEAR SEGMENT MOVING
THROUGH THE FA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT SHEAR APPEARS TO
BE MINIMAL. GIVEN THE HIGH MOISTURE IN PLACE, EXPECT FAIRLY
DECENT COVERAGE OF PRECIP ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME HEAVIER RAINFALL TOTALS.
KEY MESSAGE 2: ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LAST INTO NEXT WEEK WITH
DRIER CONDITIONS RETURNING.
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE TROUGH MOVES OFFSHORE AND STRONG
RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. PRECIP CHANCES ARE EXPECTED
TO DIMINISH AS A RESULT, AND PW VALUES FALL BELOW 1.6". THE RIDGE IS
THEN FORECAST TO REMAIN IN CONTROL MUCH OF NEXT WEEK, AND
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH DECENT CONFIDENCE AND
SMALL IQR'S. MONDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH A NOTABLE DROP
SEVERAL DEGREES BY TUESDAY DUE TO A GENERALLY DRY BACKDOOR FRONT
CROSSING THE REGION. SURFACE DEWPOINTS ALSO LOOK TO DROP FURTHER,
HELPING MAKE THE AIRMASS MORE FALL-LIKE. STILL, HIGHS REMAIN ABOVE
TYPICAL MID-SEPTEMBER VALUES. WE'LL CONTINUE TO WATCH FOR SOME
WEAKNESS ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE. MODELS ARE DEPICTING AN
INTERESTING FEATURE MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK REGARDING AN UPPER LOW
ROTATING AROUND THE HIGH FROM NEW ENGLAND SOUTH ALONG THE ATLANTIC
COAST AND EVENTUALLY RETROGRADING INTO THE GULF. THERE IS STILL
PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THIS LOW'S EVOLUTION IN THE
EXTENDED, INCLUDING IF OR WHEN IT MAY INFLUENCE OUR SENSIBLE
WEATHER.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE EARLY EVENING. ANOTHER ROUND OF MORNING FOG/STRATUS WILL BE
POSSIBLE SUNDAY.
RESTRICTIONS ARE GRADUALLY LIFTING, GIVING WAY TO SCT TO BKN
CUMULUS WITH LIGHT WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST. STRATUS
LINGERED A BIT LONGER THAN FORECAST THIS MORNING, LIMITING
DESTABILIZATION, BUT WITH BETTER HEATING STARTING, STILL EXPECT
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING. THE BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY HAS TRENDED A BIT LATER, THUS
THE PROB30 GROUP FOR EACH SITE HAS BEEN PUSHED BACK A FEW HOURS.
THIS ACTIVITY COULD BRING BRIEF VSBY RESTRICTIONS AND
ERRATIC/GUSTY WINDS. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD CLEAR THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS, GIVING WAY TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WITH SOME
LINGERING DEBRIS CLOUDS. TONIGHT, ANOTHER ROUND OF AT LEAST
PATCHY STRATUS/FOG IS EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY FOR ANY LOCATIONS
THAT RECEIVE HEAVY RAINFALL. THESE RESTRICTIONS COULD CONTINUE
THROUGH 14-16Z SUNDAY BEFORE VFR CONDITIONS RETURN WITH 4-6 KT
WINDS OUT OF THE WEST.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOWER RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY BUT THE
POTENTIAL FOR EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS PERSISTS INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION...DH
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