775
FXUS62 KCAE 240555
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
155 AM EDT THU SEP 24 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
LOWERED TEMPS FOR TODAY AND FRIDAY MORNING. AVIATION DISCUSSION
UPDATED FOR 06Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH
PERIODS OF LIGHT SHOWERS TODAY. TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY RETURN
TO NEAR NORMAL NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND,
WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT SHOWERS TODAY. TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY
RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL NEXT WEEK.
THE CAD REGIME SHOULD BE AT ITS STRONGEST TODAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE
CWA, WITH PRECIP CHANCES INCREASING EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE LOW
PROGRESSES OVERHEAD AND EVENTUALLY OFF THE COAST. POPS ARE GREATER
THAN 50% ACROSS AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF I-26, INCLUDING THE
CENTRAL/NORTHERN MIDLANDS AND INTO THE PEE DEE REGION, WITH LESS
THAN 25-30% THE CLOSER WE GET TO THE CSRA. A FEW EMBEDDED SHOWERS
COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES AS THE SHORTWAVE ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE
UPPER LOW, BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF A SEVERE THREAT AS WE SHOULD
SEE MAINLY STRATIFORM RAIN. PRECIP SHOULD DIMINISH INTO THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING; HOWEVER, WE ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVERCAST
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE LOW TO UPPER 60S.
ADDITIONALLY, BREEZY WINDS WILL BECOME A BIT GUSTIER AT TIMES AS
BETTER FLOW DEVELOPS ALOFT.
THE WEDGE WILL WEAKEN AND STEADILY BREAK DOWN LATE THIS WEEK,
BRINGING US QUITE A PLEASANT FIRST WEEKEND OF AUTUMN. MODELS
CURRENTLY HAVE THE WEDGE RETREATING FROM OUR AREA EARLY FRIDAY,
THOUGH GUIDANCE TENDS TO HANDLE THE PROGRESSION OF SUCH EVENTS
POORLY. AS SUCH, I WOULD EXPECT THE START OF FRIDAY TO REMAIN ON
THE COOLER AND CLOUDIER SIDE. AFTER THAT, MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
AND DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL WITH HIGHS REBOUNDING EACH DAY AND
TRENDING CLOSER TO NORMAL. MAX TEMPS WILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER
70S AND LOW 80S, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW
60S. CAA WILL HELP DIP DEWPOINTS INTO THE 40S AND 50S, MAKING IT
FEEL BEAUTIFUL FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. LOOKING AHEAD, TEMPS WARM
BACK INTO THE MID 80S BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THE PATTERN
LOOKS TO EVOLVE TOWARD SOMETHING MORE DAMP. HOWEVER, DETAILS
REMAIN UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
IFR/MVFR RESTRICTIONS LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE 24 HOUR TAF
PERIOD.
WEDGE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY WITH MVFR/IFR
CIGS LIKELY CONTINUING AT ALL TAF SITES. PERSISTENT NNE-NE
WINDS AROUND 10 KT ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD
WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 15-20 KTS. SHOWERS MAY BE ONGOING
AROUND DAYBREAK THIS MORNING, WITH THE BEST CHANCES AT CAE/CUB
AND MAYBE OGB. MODERATE RAINFALL WILL OCCASIONALLY REDUCE
VISIBILITIES THROUGH 18Z WHEN THE ACTIVITY PUSHES EAST. SOME
SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AS DRIER AIR
STARTS TO MOVE IN, BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT CONDITIONS
DETERIORATE AGAIN TONIGHT WITH THE WEDGE STILL LOCKED IN.
HOWEVER, BETTER CONDITIONS AND POTENTIALLY VFR ARE EXPECTED BY
FRIDAY MORNING.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
BEGINNING FRIDAY MORNING, BUT LOW CEILINGS MAY PERSIST LONGER
THAN MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN BY FRIDAY
OR EARLIER.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ND
AVIATION...EC
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