716
FXUS62 KCAE 140544
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
144 AM EDT MON SEP 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED TODAY, WITH A BACKDOOR FRONT
USHERING IN DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR THROUGH THE MIDDLE
TO END OF THIS WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED TODAY, WITH A
BACKDOOR FRONT USHERING IN DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR THROUGH
THE MIDDLE TO END OF THIS WEEK.
THE FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY ON TRACK OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS, WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE PATTERN SET TO UNFOLD. STRONG 500 HPA
RIDGING IS BUILDING INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS, WITH HEIGHTS
NEAR THE NAEFS MAX FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR BY TUES/WED. A STRONG
SURFACE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE NORTHEASTERN US AND
MID-ATLANTIC OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, YIELDING A BACKDOOR
FRONT PROGGED TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. PERSISTENT
SURFACE RIDGING AND IS FORECAST TO HANG AROUND THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK, WITH SEASONALLY LOW PW AIR AND VERY PLEASANT
AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS THROUGH FRIDAY. COMBINE THIS WITH STRONG
SUBSIDENCE DIRECTLY BENEATH THE UPPER RIDGE AND WE ARE LOOKING
AT A NICE WEEK ACROSS THE AREA. TODAY WILL BE THE LAST REALLY
HOT DAY AS HEIGHTS RISE & WE EXPERIENCE SOME COMPRESSIONAL
HEATING AHEAD OF THE BACKDOOR FRONT, WITH HIGHS FORECAST IN THE
MID 90S. BEHIND THIS FRONT, WE SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S
TO AROUND 90 TUES/WED/THUR, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS DIPPING INTO THE
MID 60S GIVEN THE DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE. THIS IS NEAR NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR, A NICE REPRIEVE FROM WHAT WE HAVE SEEN THE
PAST FEW WEEKS. BY LATE WEEK, AN INVERTED UPPER TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO UNDERCUT THE STRONG RIDGE AND MOVE SOUTH OF OUR
FORECAST AREA. THIS DOESN'T LOOK TO YIELD RAIN ACROSS THE AREA
THOUGH, SO PRECIP CHANCES LOOK LOW THROUGH AT LEAST THIS
UPCOMING WEEKEND.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD EXCEPT AT AGS.
MOISTURE IS MUCH MORE SHALLOW TODAY SO THE THREAT OF FOG AND
STRATUS IS LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS FEW NIGHTS. THAT SAID, WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT OVERNIGHT AND FOG PRONE AGS AND OGB DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS ARE ALREADY LOW. THIS SETUP FAVORS SHALLOW, EARLY
MORNING FOG AT AGS BUT VFR RESTRICTIONS AT THE OTHER SITES. OGB
IS A DIFFICULT FORECAST AND ITS ODDS OF REDUCED VSBYS ARE A
TOSS UP.
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE AREA TODAY WITH
A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE LATER TONIGHT. WINDS WILL PICK UP OUT OF
THE N/NE AROUND 4-8 KTS TODAY. NO SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON. THEN AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE CAROLINAS
TONIGHT, WE WILL SEE WINDS PICK BACK UP OUT OF THE ENE AND
REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE END OF THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD.
MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOWER CEILINGS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW AT
THE MOMENT TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RAIN AND RESTRICTIONS UNLIKELY FOR
MUCH OF THE WEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...PL
AVIATION...CJR
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