044
FXUS62 KCAE 220647
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
247 AM EDT MON JUN 22 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 06Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN EXPECTED THIS WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN EXPECTED THIS
WEEK.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. THE LATEST SPC
OUTLOOK FOR TODAY PLACES MUCH OF THE AREA IN A MARGINAL (1/5)
RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER, WITH A SLIGHT (2/5) RISK EXTENDING INTO
THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WOULD BE
THE PRIMARY HAZARD IN STRONGER STORMS, ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND ISOLATED FLOODING WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE GIVEN
ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWATS AND LONG SKINNY CAPE PROFILES.
CAM GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TIMING
AND COVERAGE OF CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT. CONFIDENCE IN
THE SEVERE THREAT EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS REMAINS SOMEWHAT LOW,
AS STORMS MAY NOT ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER PEAK HEATING AND COULD
WEAKEN THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. HIGHEST PROBABILITIES REMAIN
ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20, WITH THE GREATEST THREAT ACROSS THE PEE
DEE AND FAR NORTHMEN MIDLANDS BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE. THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS TO BE FROM LATE
AFTERNOON UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT.
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK,
FEATURING HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WITH ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING CONVECTION. BRIEF RIDGING DEVELOPS WEDNESDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WEAKNESS IT. A SURGE OF MOISTURE INCREASES ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LEADING TO HIGHER RAIN CHANCES. RIDGING
RETURNS AND STRENGTHENS INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND PUSHING
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 90S, WITH SOME GLOBAL MODELS
SUGGESTING UPPER 90S POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS MORE LIKELY THAN NOT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
WINDS WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE SW SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE WITH
SPEEDS BETWEEN 5 TO 8 KTS, THEN STRENGTHEN TO AROUND 10 KTS WITH
GUSTS TO 20 KTS AFTER 16Z. AS A FRONT MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEAST,
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TO OUR WEST.
IT IS POSSIBLE THAT WE SEE THESE STORMS MOVE INTO THE FORECAST
AREA IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW TO WARRANT INCLUSION IN THE TAFS AT
THIS TIME. GUSTS WILL SUBSIDE BY 03Z THIS EVENING BUT REMAINING
MIXING AND POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS TONIGHT SHOULD
LIMIT THE THREAT OF FOG.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK,
DIURNALLY-DRIVEN WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ND
AVIATION...CJR
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