995
FXUS62 KCAE 011813
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
213 PM EDT WED APR 1 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SHOWERS STILL EXPECTED LATE THIS WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES. AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR THE 18Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. SHOWER AND T-STORM CHANCES INCREASE FRIDAY TO SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: SHOWER AND T-STORM CHANCES INCREASE FRIDAY TO
SUNDAY.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO SHIFT EASTWARD, FURTHER OFFSHORE,
ON FRIDAY LEADING TO INCREASING ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING FRONT. SE ONSHORE FLOW FRIDAY WILL ALLOW PWAT
VALUES TO INCREASE FROM AROUND 0.75 INCHES THURSDAY TO 1.2-1.3
INCHES BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A WEAKENING RIDGE AND INCREASING
MOISTURE WILL LEAD ISOLATED OR SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION
FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW ON
BOTH DAYS WITH WEAK LAPSE RATES SHOWN IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS.
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY, SOUTHWEST
WINDS PICK UP WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 MPH. WEAK MOISTURE ADVECTION
WILL GIVE PWAT VALUES ANOTHER BUMP UP TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES.
CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL PUSH TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON OR EVENING. THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW WITH
LIMITED CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY. THOUGH MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
SUPPORT OF LIKELY OR HIGHER POPS, THESE SET UPS WITH WEST MID-
LEVEL WINDS AND LIMITED MOISTURE ADVECTION TEND TO YIELD LOW QPF
AMOUNTS. NBM PROBABILITY OF QPF OVER 0.25 INCHES IS LIMITED TO
40 PERCENT OR LESS OVER THE FA. HOWEVER WE WOULD EXPECT THERE TO
BE SOME LOCALIZED EFFECTS FROM CONVECTIVE RAINFALL. ALTHOUGH
POPS ARE HIGH, THE AREA MAY NOT RECEIVE MUCH RAINFALL WHICH
WOULD BE WELCOMED AFTER HAVING THE THIRD DRIEST MARCH ON RECORD
(KCAE).
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE AROUND DAYBREAK WITH INCREASED
MOISTURE.
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE WITH WINDS OUT OF THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST, ALTHOUGH REMAINING GENERALLY LIGHT, AROUND 5
KNOTS. CUMULUS FIELD HAS DEVELOPED WITH SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN PLACE, AROUND 5KFT. TONIGHT WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTINUING TO LINGER, MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES THE POTENTIAL
FOR RESTRICTIONS NEAR SUNRISE. CONFIDENCE REMAINS A BIT LIMITED
SO FOR NOW HAVE INCLUDED VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AT FOG PRONE
AGS AND OGB (WHICH ALSO SAW FOG THE PREVIOUS NIGHT) WITH SCT
MVFR CLOUD DECKS AT THE OTHER TERMINALS WHICH ARE MORE LIKELY TO
SEE STRATUS WITH A BIT STRONGER MIXING EXPECTED. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO ALL TERMINALS BY MID-MORNING.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SOME MORNING STRATUS IS POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH INCREASED MOISTURE IN PLACE. BETTER
CHANCES FOR DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO
THE WEEKEND.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CJR
AVIATION...96
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