711
FXUS62 KCAE 071042
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
642 AM EDT FRI AUG 7 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL FORECAST, WITH DAILY AFTERNOON
STORM CHANCES AND INCREASING HEAT/HUMIDITY NEXT WEEK. AVIATION
DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 12Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, SOME STRONG, EACH DAY.
- 2. INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
- 1. DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, SOME STRONG, EACH DAY.
A WAVY, NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE NORTHEAST WILL CONTINUE TO
SERVE AS THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN CONUS. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF
MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
THE LATEST HRRR AND HREF SUGGEST SOMEWHAT LOWER CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE COMPARED TO THURSDAY, THOUGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW
GIVEN THE POOR MODEL PERFORMANCE OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. THE
OVERALL ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY, WITH
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE IN PLACE TO SUPPORT A FEW
STRONGER STORMS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A
FAVORABLE PROFILE FOR WET MICROBURSTS. PWAT VALUES AROUND 2
INCHES, COMBINED WITH SLOW STORM MOTIONS AND ALREADY SATURATED
SOILS WILL ONCE AGAIN SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL
AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND, WITH SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING. HOWEVER, COVERAGE SHOULD TREND
SLIGHTLY LOWER EACH DAY.
- 2. INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.
AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS INTO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE
WEEKEND, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD SOUTHWARD
INTO THE FA. 90TH PERCENTILE HEIGHTS WILL FOSTER HIGHS CLIMBING
BACK INTO THE MID- 90S THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THERE REMAINS
SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING CONVECTIVE CHANCES NEXT WEEK, AS
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DIFFER ON THE PLACEMENT OF A FRONT NEAR
OUR AREA. SOME SOLUTIONS KEEP THE BOUNDARY CLOSE ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT DAILY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS, WHILE
OTHERS KEEP IT FARTHER NORTH WITH MORE ISOLATED CONVECTION. THE
EVENTUAL POSITION WILL ALSO INFLUENCE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES, AS
CLOUD COVER FROM DIURNAL CONVECTION COULD TEMPER AFTERNOON HIGHS
DURING PEAK HEATING. NONETHELESS, A COMBINATION OF TEMPERATURES
IN THE LOW TO MID-90S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID-70S WILL
LIKELY PUSH HEAT INDICES TOWARD OR OVER THE 100-DEGREE MARK FOR
SEVERAL DAYS NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CIGS AND VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. A RETURN TO VFR IS EXPECTED BY
MID TO LATE MORNING.
PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION FROM ALL
THE RAINFALL THAT OCCURRED YESTERDAY. ALL THIS MOISTURE HAS
COMBINED WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS TO PRODUCE AREAS OF BR AND FG
ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. VISIBILITIES DROPPING AT
TIMES TO AROUND 1/2SM THROUGH SUNRISE. CONDITIONS SHOULD
SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE MORNING AFTER SUNRISE, BUT VFR IS NOT
ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP UNTIL BETWEEN 14-16Z. AS FOR ANY
RAINFALL THROUGH THE PERIOD, GUIDANCE SHOWS AT LEAST ISOLATED
ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SEA-BREEZE MOVES INLAND. HOWEVER
CONSIDERING GUIDANCE BASED COVERAGE HAS BEEN SLIGHTLY LOW THE
PAST FEW DAYS, EXPECT TO SEE AT LEAST SCATTERED ACTIVITY ALONG
THE BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. HAVE CONTINUED WITH
PROB30 GROUPING FOR ANY ACTIVE DEVELOPMENT AT ALL LOCATIONS FROM
EARLY AFTERNOON THROUGH AT LEAST CLOSE TO SUNSET. WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT, GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTH.
LATER TONIGHT, THE POTENTIAL EXISTS ONCE AGAIN FOR THE
REDEVELOPMENT OF IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AT ALL LOCATIONS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH ADDITIONAL EARLY MORNING
RESTRICTIONS ALSO POSSIBLE EACH DAY.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ND
AVIATION...73
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