262
FXUS62 KCAE 282340
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
640 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED 00Z TAF DISCUSSION.
KEY MESSAGES
1. SIGNIFICANT TEMPERATURE DROP FROM SUNDAY TO MONDAY AS WEDGE
CONDITIONS DEVELOP.
2. WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND UNSETTLED WEATHER LATE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE #1: SIGNIFICANT TEMPERATURE DROP FROM SUNDAY TO MONDAY
AS WEDGE CONDITIONS DEVELOP.
SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW ON SUNDAY WILL HELP CONTRIBUTE TO WELL
ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES, PARTICULARLY WITH THE ASSISTANCE
OF NORTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPING AT 850 MB. TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES OF 10-
15 DEGREES F ABOVE NORMAL WILL NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION, BRINGING
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S AND PERHAPS A FEW SPOTS TOUCHING 80
DEGREES. AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OVER NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY, 850 MB
FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY WITH WESTERLY FLOW ABOVE. A BACKDOOR
FRONT IS PROGGED TO SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTH, SETTING UP
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR WEAK CAD. WHILE PW WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY
TO AROUND 0.75-1", IT APPEARS MOST PRECIP WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH
OUTSIDE OF A FEW STRAY SHOWERS POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MIDLANDS. STILL, CLOUD COVER AND NORTHEAST COLD ADVECTION
WILL DROP TEMPERATURES BY 15 TO 20 DEGREES MONDAY COMPARED TO
SUNDAY, WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 50S NORTHERN AND
WESTERN MIDLANDS TO LOW TO MID 60S SOUTHERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA. SOME
IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY WITH THE WEDGE BREAKING BY
WEDNESDAY AS HEIGHTS INCREASE AND HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE.
NOTABLY, THE NBM TEMPERATURE INTERQUARTILE RANGE FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY REMAIN QUITE LARGE (8-10 DEGREES), SO OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN
THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS LOWER THAN NORMAL AT THIS FORECAST
RANGE.
KEY MESSAGE #2: WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER LATE WEEK.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER FOR LATE IN THE WEEK AS THE
SOUTHEAST REGION SETTLES UNDER BROAD UPPER RIDGING. THIS WILL PUSH
MOST OF THE STORM TRACK NORTH OF US, THOUGH A SHORTWAVE MAY TRACK
CLOSE TO THE SC/NC BORDER BY THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CONSOLIDATING OFFSHORE, TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND BACK TO
WELL ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS, GENERALLY TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOW 80S THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS IS FURTHER EVIDENT WHEN
LOOKING AT THE NAEFS TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES, WITH VALUES ABOVE THE
90TH PERCENTILE AT ALL LEVELS FROM 500MB TO 1000MB AND VALUES UP TO
THE 97TH PERCENTILE AT 850MB BY FRIDAY. IN ADDITION TO THE WARM
TEMPERATURES, UNSETTLED WEATHER IS POSSIBLE WITH MOISTURE ADVECTION
ON DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW, PUSHING SPECIFIC HUMIDITY VALUES ABOVE THE
97TH PERCENTILE AT 850 AND 925 MB FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. INSTABILITY
WILL ALSO INCREASE, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR 500-1000 J/KG OF CAPE
DEVELOPING THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY POINTING TO THE POSSIBILITY OF
DIURNALLY-DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AT THIS TIME HOWEVER,
THE SEVERE THREAT APPEARS LOW WITH A LACK OF UPPER SUPPORT OR WIND
SHEAR.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
LOW CEILINGS ARE FORECAST TO GIVE WAY TO DENSE FOG LATER
TONIGHT, WITH LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
AS IS USUAL, CEILINGS HELD ON WELL PAST WHAT GUIDANCE WAS
SHOWING 24 HOURS AGO. AS SUCH, LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS STILL QUITE
COPIOUS BENEATH VERY DRY AIR ALOFT. THE REMAINING CEILINGS ARE
FORECAST TO DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS AT AREA TAF SITES.
WITH CLEAR SKIES & LIGHT LOW-LEVEL WINDS, WE ARE EXPECTING
WIDESPREAD FOG TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 05Z AND 07Z TONIGHT. IT WILL
LIKELY TAKE A BIT TO GET GOING BUT GUIDANCE IS PRETTY AGGRESSIVE
WITH HRRR/RRFS/REFS GUIDANCE SUGGESTING A HIGH PROBABILITY OF
VISIBILITIES <1SM TONIGHT, WITH VIS DOWN TO 1/4SM POSSIBLE AS
WELL. GIVEN THE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE SETUP, UTILIZED TEMPOS
AND PREDOMINANT GROUPS TO SHOW THE MOST INTENSE FOG OCCURRING
BETWEEN 06Z AND 14Z AT ALL SITES. FOG WILL PROBABLY HANG AROUND
FOR A BIT IN THE MORNING BUT IT SHOULD DISSIPATE BY LATE
MORNING AS MIXING COMMENCES. ONCE THIS TAKES PLACE, EXPECT VFR
FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NIGHTLY LOW CEILING OR VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND THROUGH
MIDWEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...EC
AVIATION...PL
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