847
FXUS62 KCAE 041037
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
637 AM EDT SUN OCT 4 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING CONTINUES TODAY. ANOTHER
PERIOD OF MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER
TODAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY AS A FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION.
THE FOCUS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL SHIFTS SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL
MIDLANDS THROUGH THE DAY, THEN INTO THE CSRA AND SOUTHERN
MIDLANDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. AVIATION DISCUSSION
UPDATED FOR 12Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. SLOW MOVING FRONT AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL BRING
PERIODS OF RAIN, ALONG WITH AN INCREASED RISK FOR FLASH
FLOODING.
- 2. COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN MONDAY
AFTERNOON, LASTING THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: SLOW MOVING FRONT AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL
BRING PERIODS OF RAIN, ALONG WITH AN INCREASED RISK FOR FLASH
FLOODING.
THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY MONDAY: LITTLE CHANGE TO THE LATEST
FORECAST AT THIS TIME. SURFACE FRONT HAS PUSHED INTO THE CENTRAL
MIDLANDS THIS MORNING, AND WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH SOUTHWARD
TODAY AND INTO MONDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION, BOTH THE 500 MB AND
850 MB WINDS REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
UPPER TROUGH, AT LEAST INTO LATER TONIGHT. LATEST MOISTURE
ANALYSIS STILL SHOWING PWAT VALUES BETWEEN 2.0 TO 2.3 INCHES
THIS MORNING. WITH THE ABOVE WIND PATTERN STILL BRINGING PLENTY
OF GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD TODAY INTO TONIGHT, MOST OF THE
GUIDANCE SHOWS PWATS REMAINING WELL ABOVE 2 INCHES AT LEAST
INTO MONDAY MORNING. BEST SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES THROUGH LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT, AND THIS SHOULD BE THE MOST
FAVORABLE TIME PERIOD FOR MORE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL
TO SETUP ACROSS THE AREA. OVERALL, THIS ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING. HEAVIEST
RAIN AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING SHOULD BE ALONG AND JUST SOUTH
OF THE SURFACE FRONT, WITH THE AXIS OF HEAVY RAIN THEN SLOWLY
SHIFTING SOUTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 2: COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN
MONDAY AFTERNOON, LASTING THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.
ONCE THE SURFACE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE AREA BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON, MUCH DRIER AIR WILL FINALLY BEGIN MOVING INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NORTH. PWAT VALUES BY MONDAY EVENING WILL BE
DROPPING TO BELOW 1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA,
WHILE EVEN DRIER AIR WITH PWATS BELOW 0.75 INCHES WILL BE
PUSHING INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THAT DRIER
AIR WILL CONTINUE PUSHING SOUTHWARD MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES DROP SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MID-WEEK, THEN
RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. RAIN CHANCES
NOT EXPECTED TO RETURN UNTIL POSSIBLY AT SOME POINT NEXT
WEEKEND.
AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED TODAY AND INTO MONDAY.
LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS THINKING. WITH PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION, AND A COLD FRONT SLOWLY PUSHING
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD, ALL
GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH BRINGING IFR/LIFR CEILING
RESTRICTIONS TO ALL TAF LOCATIONS TODAY. LATEST METARS ARE
ALREADY SHOWING MANY AREAS ALREADY IFR, WITH ONLY A FEW EXCEPTIONS.
WILL GENERALLY BE KEEPING ALL TAF LOCATIONS IFR/LIFR THROUGH
THE END OF THE 24 HOURS TAF PERIOD. PERIODS OF SHOWERS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED, WITH SOME VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ALSO TOSSED IN WITH
THE HEAVIER SHOWER ACTIVITY. OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS, PERIODS OF
LIGHT DRIZZLE MAY BE ENCOUNTERED. ALL IN ALL, WILL NOT BE A
GOOD PERIOD FOR GENERAL AVIATION FLYING.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY
MORNING, THEN DRIER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER IN MONDAY AFTERNOON,
WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY THAT TIME.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...73
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