292
FXUS62 KCAE 111805
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
205 PM EDT SUN OCT 11 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
REMOVED SUNDAY MORNING VERBIAGE FROM KEY MESSAGE 1 AND ADDED
NEW KEY MESSAGE REGARDING THE EXPECTED LATE WEEK FRONTAL
PASSAGE. AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 18Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY AND BREEZY BUT DRY THIS AFTERNOON
IN THE POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT.
- 2. DRY, WARM WEATHER FAVORED THROUGH AT LEAST MID-WEEK.
- 3. AN ABRUPT CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES IS POSSIBLE NEXT WEEKEND
BEHIND A LATE WEEK COLD FRONT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY AND BREEZY BUT DRY THIS AFTERNOON
IN THE POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT.
IT'S A WARM BUT BREEZY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA
BEHIND THIS MORNING'S COLD FRONT. WITH STRONG CAA FILTERING INTO
THE REGION, EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO STRUGGLE TO WARM MUCH BEYOND
CURRENT VALUES WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S,
EXCEPT IN THE EASTERN MIDLANDS WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE
UPPER 70S AT MIDDAY. SKIES SHOULD GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT TONIGHT
BUT WINDS SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED ENOUGH TO LIMIT OVERNIGHT
COOLING. IT'LL BE A COOLER MORNING ON MONDAY REGARDLESS AS
TEMPERATURES AT DAYBREAK SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S.
KEY MESSAGE 2: DRY, WARM WEATHER FAVORED THROUGH AT LEAST MID-WEEK.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGH MID-
WEEK. UPPER RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE DEEP SOUTH ON
MONDAY, GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. THE UPPER
RIDGING, COMBINED WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER PWATS,
SHOULD PROMOTE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WITH WARMING
TEMPERATURES. THE MID-WEEK PERIOD COULD FEATURE NEAR RECORD
HIGHS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 3: AN ABRUPT CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES IS POSSIBLE
NEXT WEEKEND BEHIND A LATE WEEK COLD FRONT.
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS A DRY COLD FRONT APPROACH THE
SOUTHEASTERN US ON FRIDAY, USHERING IN A NOTICEABLY COOLER AIR
MASS. CURRENT BLENDED GUIDANCE FAVORS ANOTHER WARM AND DRY DAY
ON FRIDAY, ALBEIT SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN THE MID-WEEK PERIOD, WITH
A COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT
WITHOUT MUCH FANFARE. A STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS
IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE WEEKEND RESULTING IN NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL HIGHS AND BREEZY WINDS ON SATURDAY AND
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY. SINCE BLENDED GUIDANCE
DOES NOT INDICATE ANY RAIN WITH THE FRIDAY NIGHT FRONT, RAIN IS
NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED IN THE FA DURING THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS IN THE CSRA IMPROVING TO VFR BY 20Z
AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA.
REMNANTS OF ISAIAS HAVE LIFTED NORTHEAST OF THE AREA WITH DRIER
AIR BUILDING INTO THE REGION, ALTHOUGH SOME MVFR CIGS ARE
LINGERING ACROSS THE CSRA IMPACTING AGS/DNL/AIK THROUGH AROUND
20Z OR SO. GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE WITH SUNSET
DIMINISHING TO AROUND 7 TO 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND WEAKENING
FURTHER AROUND SUNRISE MONDAY. WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN WITH
MIXING AROUND 14Z FROM THE NORTHWEST AROUND 8 TO 10 KNOTS WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT AVIATION CONCERNS.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...7
AVIATION...23
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