175
FXUS62 KCAE 150122
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
922 PM EDT TUE JUL 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STILL POSSIBLE THIS EVENING.
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 18Z TAF.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE
AGAIN TODAY BEFORE CHANCES BECOME MORE SPOTTY WEDNESDAY.
WARMING TEMPERATURES AND RETURNING DIURNAL RAIN CHANCES
EXPECTED FOR THE LATE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
EVENING BEFORE CHANCES BECOME MORE SPOTTY WEDNESDAY. WARMING
TEMPERATURES AND RETURNING DIURNAL RAIN CHANCES EXPECTED FOR THE
LATE WEEK.
AFTER MULTIPLE ACTIVE DAYS, THINGS LOOK TO SLOWLY START TO WIND
DOWN INTO THE MID WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING COOLER THAN
NORMAL. THE DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT HAS CONTRIBUTED TO
THE SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING AND HEAVY RAINFALL THE LAST FEW
DAYS IS NOW GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. A FEW WEAK
SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS EVENING JUST AS WE STARTED LOSING
OUR HEATING AND ARE MOVING EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE MIDLANDS.
CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES, BUT BY AND LARGE THIS
ACTIVITY WILL BE OF LITTLE CONSEQUENCE. PWATS REMAIN AROUND 2"
SO A BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOUR IS POSSIBLE, BUT OVERALL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN ON THE LOWER END (LESS THAN 0.25") GIVEN
A FASTER STORM MOTION. THE LATEST CAMS HAVE ACTIVITY GENERALLY
ENDING AROUND 05Z WITH RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS OCCURRING THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.
THE MAIN CHANGE COMES WEDNESDAY WITH GUIDANCE TRENDING A BIT
DRIER AS THE FRONT REMAINS SOUTH OF THE AREA AND ANY FORCING THE
MID LEVEL LOW RETROGRADES OUT OF THE REGION. THE AXIS OF PWAT'S
NEAR 2.25" IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY PIVOT OUT OF THE FA TOWARD THE
WEST, BUT PWAT'S NEAR 2" STILL MAY AID IN BRINGING AT LEAST
ISOLATED ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOON. HEADING INTO THE LATE
WEEK, ENSEMBLES AND GLOBAL MODELS DEPICT AN ELONGATED UPPER
RIDGE STRETCHING FROM THE CENTRAL CONUS, TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY.
THIS MAY AID IN BRINGING WEAK HEIGHT RISES TO THE FA AS LOW
LEVEL SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BRINGS BACK 850MB TEMPS
NEAR THE NAEFS 90TH PERCENTILE. THIS SETUP SHOULD SUPPORT
WARMING TEMPERATURES NEAR TO JUST ABOVE NORMAL LATE THIS WEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND. MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY SEASONABLE,
THUS CANNOT RULE OUT TYPICAL DIURNAL CONVECTION CHANCES,
ESPECIALLY BY THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
MAINLY VFR INTO TONIGHT WITH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING RESTRICTIONS
LATER TONIGHT.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE GENERALLY REMAINED WELL SOUTH OF
THE TAF SITES. THE AUGUSTA SITES HAVE SEEN PERIODIC RAINFALL
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS MAY CONTINUE UNTIL 01Z THIS EVENING.
BEYOND THAT, PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL LIKELY PERSIST FOR MUCH
OF THE NIGHT AT THE SITES, CLEARING SOMETIME IN THE MIDDLE OF
THE NIGHT. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT, WITH WEAK
LOW-LEVEL FLOW OVERALL. DESPITE RESTRICTIONS THE PAST TWO
NIGHTS, IT IS UNCERTAIN WHETHER OR NOT WE ACTUALLY SEE CEILING
RESTRICTIONS AGAIN. GUIDANCE IS MIXED, AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS
LOOK LIKE THEY MAY FAVOR GROUND OR PATCHY FOG OVER STRATUS
TONIGHT. HAVE OPTED FOR THAT AS THE CLEAR SKIES & LIGHT WINDS
SHOULD FAVOR MORE OF A FOG ACROSS THE AREA BUT RESTRICTIONS JUST
AREN'T A CERTAINTY TONIGHT LIKE THEY HAVE BEEN THE LAST COUPLE
OF NIGHTS. A FAIRLY NICE DAY IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AS DRIER
AIR PUSHES IN & CONTAINS THE SHOWERS MOSTLY IN GEORGIA. AGS/DNL
WILL PROBABLY HAVE A LIGHT SHOWER OR TWO AROUND BUT WIDESPREAD
COVERAGE IS UNLIKELY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THE THREAT FOR RESTRICTIONS EASES
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS CONDITIONS
BEGIN TO DRY OUT.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...EC/42
AVIATION...PL
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page