753
FXUS62 KCAE 280548
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
148 AM EDT WED OCT 28 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
A SECOND KEY MESSAGE HAS BEEN ADDED TO ADDRESS RAINFALL THIS
WEEKEND. AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 06Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. BEAUTIFUL WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF
THIS WEEK.
- 2. RAIN CHANCES ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE THIS WEEKEND, WITH AN
ACTIVE PATTERN APPEARING POSSIBLE INTO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: BEAUTIFUL WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE END OF THIS WEEK.
THE PERSISTENTLY BEAUTIFUL WEATHER WE HAVE BEEN EXPERIENCING FOR
A WEEK AND A HALF NOW IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTO THE END OF
THIS WORK WEEK. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED AT THE
SURFACE TO OUR NORTHEAST, FUNNELING DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA
BENEATH STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. THIS IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY BUT
SURELY SHIFT AS THE WEEK GOES ALONG, WITH AT LEAST THE INITIAL
HIGH FORECAST TO SHIFT EASTWARD BY FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD BE
FOLLOWED UP BY ANOTHER STRONG SURFACE HIGH MOVING IN THIS
WEEKEND, BUT THE WEATHER AROUND THAT WILL LIKELY BE DIFFERENT
THAT WE ARE EXPERIENCING THIS WORK WEEK. MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO
SLOWLY BUT SURELY INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, WITH SLIGHTLY
WARMER HIGHS AND LOWS EXPECTED BY THE END OF THIS WEEK (ITS
MODEST - HIGHS AROUND 80 BY FRIDAY AND LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID
50S).
KEY MESSAGE 2: RAIN CHANCES ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE THIS
WEEKEND, WITH AN ACTIVE PATTERN APPEARING POSSIBLE INTO NEXT
WEEK.
IT WOULD BE DIFFICULT TO REALLY HAVE WEATHER QUIETER THAN WHAT
WE HAVE EXPERIENCED THE LAST WEEK OR SO. WE HAVE SEEN
PERSISTENT, DRY HIGH PRESSURE REMAIN ENTRENCHED IN PLACE ACROSS
THE EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN CONUS IN THIS PERIOD, ENSURING THE
WEATHER IS BENIGN AND THE TEMPERATURES ARE PRISTINE. CONFIDENCE
IS INCREASING IN ACTIVE WEATHER BEGINNING AGAIN THIS WEEKEND,
WITH UNCERTAINTY EXTENDING WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. A COMPLEX UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN IS FORECAST TO BE IN PLACE BY SATURDAY AS A STRONG
UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE NORTHEASTERN US. THE SUBSIDENCE ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THIS IS EXPECTED TO YIELD ANOTHER STRONG SURFACE
HIGH PUSHING INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS
WILL LIKELY RIDGE DOWN INTO THE CAROLINAS AGAIN ON SAT/SUN, WITH
COOLER TEMPS (COMPARED TO FRIDAY) RETURNING AGAIN. THINGS GET
DIFFERENT AFTER THIS AS A COMPLEX, SPLIT-FLOW REGIME OVERSPREADS
THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EASTWARD AND APPROACH BY SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH
MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASING ATOP THE SURFACE RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE AS IT DOES SO. RAINFALL WILL LIKELY INCREASE IN
COVERAGE ON SUNDAY AS A RESULT OF THIS, WITH IN-SITU WEDGE
CONDITIONS PROBABLE GIVEN THE OVERALL SETUP. BEYOND THIS, THERE
IS A STRONG SIGNAL AMONGST DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
THAT A ROBUST LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL EMERGE FROM THE WESTERN US BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AND INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER. HOWEVER, THE
ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS ARE SHOWING WIDE SPREAD, INDICATIVE OF A LOW-
CONFIDENCE FORECAST EVEN THOUGH IT IS SOMEWHAT IN THE MEDIUM
RANGE. IQR VALUES OF THE LREF MEMBERS ARE HIGH NEXT WEEK,
BACKING THIS IDEA UP. SO WHILE THE WEATHER LOOKS INCREASINGLY
MORE ACTIVE (IT WOULD BE TOUGH TO BE LESS ACTIVE!) LATE THIS
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK, CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON DETAILS BEYOND
SUNDAY.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
A REPEAT OF SOME SHALLOW RIVER FOG IS POSSIBLE AGAIN EARLY THIS
MORNING.
SKIES REMAINING MOSTLY CLEAR WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
THROUGH SUNRISE THIS MORNING. THERE IS SOME STRATUS DEVELOPMENT
OCCURRING ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN NC THIS MORNING, BUT MOST
GUIDANCE IS KEEPING THIS CLOUD DECK OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
MIDLANDS TAF LOCATIONS THROUGH SUNRISE, THEN IT BURNS OFF
THROUGH THE MORNING. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL NOT DROP AS LOW
AS THE PREVIOUS NIGHT, CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME SHALLOW
PATCHY FOG ALONG THE RIVER VALLEYS TOWARDS SUNRISE. THIS WOULD
BE BRIEF IF IT OCCURS, AND CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW, SO KEPT
WITH PERSISTENCE FORECAST OF VFR CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME.
AFTER 14 OR 15Z, WINDS WILL BE INCREASING TO AROUND 6-10 KTS BY
THE LATE MORNING, WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 15-18 KTS POSSIBLE
THROUGH 23Z. AFTER THAT, WINDS DIMINISH AS LOW-LEVELS DECOUPLE,
BECOMING LIGHT AND OUT OF THE NORTHEAST BY SUNSET.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT AVIATION CONCERNS
THROUGH THE WEEK. A FEW TO SCATTERED HIGH VFR CLOUDS MAY MOVE IN
THROUGH THURSDAY DUE TO ONSHORE FLOW, BUT OTHERWISE REMAINING
DRY. RESTRICTIONS MAY RETURN MOVING INTO THE WEEKEND AS
MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES BEGIN TO INCREASE.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...PL
AVIATION...73
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