840
FXUS62 KCAE 120637
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
237 AM EDT THU MAR 12 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
OVERALL FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK BASED ON UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS
THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATER THIS MORNING.
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 06Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO BRING A LINE OF STRONG STORMS
THIS MORNING, WITH STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED IN ADVANCE
OF THE FRONT AND JUST BEHIND IT.
- 2. ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH INTO AND
THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
- 3. WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH A
WIDESPREAD FROST POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE #1: A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO BRING A LINE OF
STRONG STORMS THIS MORNING, WITH STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED
IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT AND JUST BEHIND IT.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TONIGHT REVEALS A SHARP MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
OVER EASTERN TX AND LOUISIANA, RAPIDLY PROPAGATING
NORTHEASTWARD. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXISTS AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM, WITH A LARGE AND DEEP LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN US AND EXTENDING ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE
APPALACHIANS. A SECONDARY SURFACE LOW IS DEVELOPING IN THE
IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE AFORMENTIONED SHORTWAVE, HELPING TO
DRIVE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A QLCS. THIS IS A PRETTY ROBUST QLCS AT
THIS HOUR, SUPPORTED BY STRONG SYNOPTIC SUPPORT AND 50-100 J/KG
OF 3K CAPE. THE OVERALL SETUP FAVORS THIS TO CONTINUE MARCHING
EASTWARD TOWARDS OUR FORECAST AREA. RAP/HRRR/REFS GUIDANCE ALL
FORECASTS GENERALLY 250-500 J/KG OF SBCAPE & 50-100 J/KG OF 3KM
CAPE. STRONG WARM ADVECTION IS FOSTERING SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S WHICH SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO ACTUALLY YIELD
CAPE SIMILAR TO WHAT THE GUIDANCE IS SHOWING. AS THE SHORTWAVE
CONTINUES TO MERGE WITH THE DEEP TROUGH TO ITS NORTH, LOW-LEVEL
FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF THE LINE OF STORMS,
WITH 0-3KM SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 40-50 KNOTS AS THE LINE
APPROACHES.
THE EXPECTATION IS THAT THIS LINE WILL MAINTAIN AND APPROACH THE
REGION BETWEEN 7A AND 12P, PUSHING EASTWARD BY THE END OF THAT
TIMEFRAME. THIS LINE HAS BEEN A PRETTY FREQUENT PRODUCER OF
MESOVORTICES AS IT HAS PROPAGATED ACROSS LOUISIANA AND
MISSISSIPPI LAST NIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING. WITH THE
AFORMENTIONED LOW-LEVEL CAPE PROFILE, IN ADDITION TO STRONG,
SOUTHWESTERLY 0-3KM SHEAR VECTORS, EXPECT THAT THE LINE WILL BE
CAPABLE OF STRONG TO SEVERE WEATHER. STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS ARE THE PRIMARY THREAT (AND THIS IS OUTSIDE OF 30+ MPH NON
THUNDERSTORM GUSTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT), WITH SOME WEAK SPIN UP
TORNADOES POSSIBLE GIVEN THE SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE SETUP FOR
MESOVORTEX PRODUCTION.
ONCE THE LINE PUSHES THROUGH, THE AIRMASS SHOULD BEGIN DRYING AS
WINDS SHIFT OUT OF THE WEST AND NORTHWEST AT THE SURFACE. THE
GUSTINESS WILL LIKELY REMAIN BUT FALL BACK INTO THE 20-30 MPH
RANGE INSTEAD OF 30+ MPH NEAR THE FRONT. HIGHS ARE PROBABLY
BEING HIT AS THIS AFD IS WRITTEN GIVE THAT WE ARE STILL IN THE
70S AND TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BEHIND THE FRONT.
KEY MESSAGE #2: ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH
INTO AND THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
AFTER A COUPLE OF DAYS WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS AND DRY
CONDITIONS, A BROAD WARM SECTOR IS FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD THE
REGION AHEAD OF A DEEP, LARGE SURFACE LOW PUSHING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO PRECEDE THIS DEEP
TROUGH, YIELDING STRONG MOISTURE RETURN ON SUNDAY. ISENTROPIC
LIFT IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO SOME SHOWERS DURING THE DAY ON
SUNDAY AS MOISTURE RAPIDLY INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA. THIS
MOISTURE PLUME SHOULD PUSH TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA THEREAFTER,
WITH AN INTENSE COLD FRONT PUSHING EASTWARD ON MONDAY MORNING.
DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT, ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG
STORMS IS POSSIBLE ON MONDAY MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON.
REGARDLESS, MORE RAIN/STORMS MAY APPROACH MONDAY WITH STRONG,
NON-THUNDERSTORMS WIND GUSTS LIKELY AS WELL WITH THIS SYSTEM.
KEY MESSAGE #3: WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT
WEEK, WITH A WIDESPREAD FROST POSSIBLE.
BEHIND THE AFORMENTIONED FRONT, A STRONG, ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
IS FORECAST TO SHIFT INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND OH VALLEY. LREF
GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS AIRMASS
NEXT WEEK WILL BE COLD & DRY. THE GRAND ENSEMBLE MEAN SHOWS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE 85-95TH PERCENTILE PRESSURES ACROSS
THE DEEP SOUTH AS THE SURFACE HIGH SETTLES INTO THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO END UP IN THE LOW 30S BOTH MONDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THAT THINGS ARE BEGINNING TO GREEN UP &
BLOOM, WE ARE GROWING CONCERNED ABOUT A POTENTIAL WIDESPREAD
FROST EARLY NEXT WEEK. STAY TUNED TO THE FORECAST IF YOU HAVE
ANY PLANTS OUTDOORS THAT MAY NEED PROTECTION FROM THE COLD!
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
RESTRICTIONS DEVELOP TOWARDS DAYBREAK AT THE TERMINALS....
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE AT THE TERMINALS TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED
PASSING CLOUDS. A COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND WILL
RESULT IN RESTRICTIONS DEVELOPING FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 10Z AND
12Z OR AROUND DAYBREAK. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO MVFR WITH
FURTHER REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING AS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVE INTO THE REGION. STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE
WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT PASS OVER A TERMINAL. GUSTY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY, BOTH AHEAD OF
AND BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN BETWEEN 21Z
AND 23Z AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH
WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO NOTABLE RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED UNTIL
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR SCZ016-018-020>022-025>031-035-037-038-041-
115-116-135>137.
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR GAZ040-063>065-077.
DISCUSSION...PL
AVIATION...7
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