922  
FXUS62 KCAE 231937  
AFDCAE  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC  
237 PM EST SUN FEB 23 2020  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN THE FORECAST AREA TODAY, AND  
THEN OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST MONDAY. THERE WILL BE INCREASED  
MOISTURE MONDAY AND TUESDAY IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF  
THE OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT  
WILL BE IN THE AREA WEDNESDAY. THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL OCCUR AHEAD  
OF THE COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
 
 
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONTINUED HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING OVER THE  
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH NEARLY ZONAL WESTERLY 500MB  
FLOW DOWNSTREAM OF A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS  
REGION. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLIDE EAST OF THE  
FORECAST AREA WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST.  
TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN TO AROUND 60 DEGREES WITH THE WARMING  
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND FILTERED SUNSHINE THROUGH THE HIGHER  
CLOUDS.  
 
TONIGHT, ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES OVER THE AREA AS CLOUDS  
INCREASE, THICKEN AND LOWER THROUGH THE NIGHT AT THE ATMOSPHERE  
BEGINS TO SATURATE WITH BACK SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT,  
DOWNSTREAM OF THE UPPER TROUGH. THE INCREASED CLOUDS WILL LIMIT  
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND EXPECT MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH  
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S. THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT RAIN THAT  
DEVELOPS DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS AS ISENTROPIC LIFT STRENGTHENS  
BUT THINK RAIN WILL GENERALLY HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER MONDAY  
MORNING. WILL STILL GO AHEAD AND CARRY SOME LOW POPS LATE  
TONIGHT MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
 
 
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS  
WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES MONDAY  
INTO TUESDAY. AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD INTO  
THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT WHILE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION  
FROM THE DEEP SOUTH. MOISTURE WILL DEEPEN MONDAY INTO MONDAY  
NIGHT WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISING TO NEAR 1.5 INCHES  
WHICH IS 225 PERCENT OF NORMAL. THE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL  
GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY WITH INCREASING ISENTROPIC  
LIFT AND WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD MONDAY NIGHT. WPC HAS INCLUDED A  
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA IN ITS DAY 2 MARGINAL RISK OF  
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK. THE HIGHEST QPF IS EXPECTED IN THE  
CSRA WITH AROUND 1.5 INCHES FORECAST. THERE MAY BE LOCALLY  
HIGHER AMOUNTS WHICH COULD LEAD TO FLOODING ISSUES ALONG SMALL  
STREAMS MAINLY IN PARTS OF BURKE COUNTY WHERE HEAVIEST RAINS AND  
FLOODING ISSUES HAVE OCCURRED RECENTLY. A FLOOD WATCH MAY BE  
REQUIRED. A NON- DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TREND IS FORECAST MONDAY  
NIGHT WITH THE WARM FRONT IN THE AREA. HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE  
LOWER 50S TO LOWER 60S.  
 
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE  
REGION ON TUESDAY BEFORE WEAKENING AND STALLING. DEEP MOISTURE  
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT EARLY TUESDAY  
BEFORE DRIER AIR BEGINS FILTERING IN BEHIND THE FRONT. BY  
TUESDAY AFTERNOON, THE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE EAST OF THE STALLED  
BOUNDARY IN THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA AND ALONG  
THE COAST. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS  
BUT GIVEN THE SHALLOW MOISTURE, HELD OFF INCLUDING THUNDERSTORMS  
IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER  
60S TO AROUND 70.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
 
 
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY  
BRINGING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK  
AND INTO THE WEEK. THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL BE EAST OF THE  
REGION ON WEDNESDAY, SO CHANCE POPS APPEAR REASONABLE. IT WILL  
BE BREEZY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, SO A LAKE WIND ADVISORY MAY  
BE NEEDED. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE  
SOUTHWEST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MAY AFFECT  
THE AREA ON SATURDAY, BUT THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WAS LESS  
THAN 15 PERCENT.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT THEN  
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER 15Z FROM WEST TO EAST.  
 
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST OVERNIGHT AND A RETURN  
SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING MOISTURE BACK TO THE REGION. AS  
THE ATMOSPHERE SATURATES CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND CIG HEIGHTS  
ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER THROUGH THE NIGHT. STRONGER ISENTROPIC  
LIFT ARRIVES LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AND EXPECT CIGS TO FALL  
TO MVFR AFTER 15Z WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN OVERSPREADING THE REGION  
THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD. CIGS COULD DROP TO  
IFR NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST BUT THINK THAT WILL OCCUR  
BEYOND THIS FORECAST TIME FRAME.  
 
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AROUND  
5 TO 7 KNOTS THEN BECOME NEARLY CALM OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL  
SLOWLY PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AFTER 15Z MONDAY.  
 
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO  
THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES, CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TO  
IFR OR LOWER LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. RESTRICTIONS MAY  
CONTINUE AT TIMES THROUGH WEDNESDAY UNTIL A COLD FRONT CROSSES  
THE REGION.  
 

 
   
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
GA...NONE.  
SC...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
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