213
FXUS62 KCAE 150600
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
200 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
REMOVED PREVIOUS KEY MESSAGE 1. AIRMASS FOR TODAY IS TRENDING
DRIER AND CHANCES FOR PRECIP HAVE MOVED SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY.
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 06Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. AFTER A DRY MONDAY, UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE REST
OF THE WORK WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: AFTER A DRY MONDAY, UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS
FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK.
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST EARLY THIS
MORNING. LATEST GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS FRONT
PUSHES FAR ENOUGH SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY TO KEEP US DRY. WITH
THE FRONT PUSHING FURTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUS FORECASTS, A DRIER
AIRMASS IS ALSO EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA, WITH
DEW POINTS DROPPING TO THE LOWER 60S OR POSSIBLE UPPER 50S FOR
MOST LOCATIONS. AFTER TODAY, UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEK AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERS NEAR THE AREA
AND MULTIPLE SHORTWAVE PULSES MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS
WEEK. THE LATEST GUIDANCE TRENDS KEEP THE HIGHEST IVT TRANSFER
AND PWATS GENERALLY REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE
WEEK, KEEPING THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND LOCATIONS SOUTH. A LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP
IN THE WESTERN GULF REGION LATER THIS WEEK AND EJECT NORTHEAST
ALONG THE BOUNDARY, BRINGING INCREASED MOISTURE WITH IT.
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE AT THE END OF THE
WEEK DUE TO THIS FEATURE AS IT PASSES AROUND THE AREA. HOWEVER,
ENSEMBLE SUITES ARE SHOWING A LARGE SPREAD IN THE TRAJECTORY OF
THIS FEATURE, INDICATING THAT THE UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH AT THIS
TIME.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY EXPECTED ALTHOUGH SOME MORNING STRATUS
IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING.
CONVECTION HAS SHIFTED SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA BUT MOST AREAS
RECEIVED RAINFALL AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING STRATUS
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE PIEDMONT WHERE HIGHER CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED.
NO GUIDANCE IS FORECASTING ANY STRATUS AT ANY TERMINALS BUT AM
CONCERNED THE STRATUS WILL IMPACT SEVERAL TERMINALS AS THE
HIGHER CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST AND CLEAR SO INCLUDING A
TEMPO GROUP FROM 07Z-11Z FOR IFR CIGS IN STRATUS. OTHERWISE,
WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 5 KNOTS EXPECTED THROUGH 14Z BEFORE WINDS
PICK UP TO AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. DRIER AIR MOVES IN SO DO NOT EXPECT ANY CONVECTION TO
IMPACT TERMINALS TODAY. WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE WITH SUNSET AROUND
00Z.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...DIURNALLY FAVORED CONVECTION
POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON MID WEEK WITH POSSIBLE MORNING
FOG/STRATUS BRINGING RESTRICTIONS. BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THU/FRI.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...29
AVIATION...23
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