384
FXUS62 KCAE 071731
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
131 PM EDT TUE JUL 7 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
CURRENT CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BASED ON LATEST
OBSERVATIONS. AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 18Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. HOT CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA, WITH CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. HIGHER CHANCES OF RAIN
RETURN THIS WEEKEND WITH A SLOW MOVING FRONT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: HOT CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA, WITH
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. HIGHER
CHANCES OF RAIN RETURN THIS WEEKEND WITH A SLOW MOVING FRONT.
FORECAST GUIDANCE HAS STRUGGLED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE PAST FEW
DAYS IN RESOLVING CONVECTIVE COVERAGE, CONSISTENTLY
UNDERESTIMATING THE EXTENT OF DEVELOPMENT. DESPITE THIS, THE
OVERALL PATTERN/SIGNAL TODAY REMAINS THE SAME, WITH MOST
GUIDANCE CONTINUING TO SUGGEST LOWER COVERAGE THAN WHAT MAY
ACTUALLY OCCUR. THE ENVIRONMENT THIS AFTERNOON CLOSELY RESEMBLES
YESTERDAY'S SETUP, WITH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 90S, PWATS OVER 2
INCHES, SBCAPE OF 2500-3500 J/KG, DCAPE OF 700-800 J/KG, AND
TEI ~25. ADDITIONALLY, A FEW RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM
YESTERDAYS ACTIVITY MAY STILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE AREA AND
COULD LOCALLY ENHANCE CONVECTION. CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT IS ALREADY
UNDERWAY WITH SPOTTY SHOWERS POPPING UP IN THE NORTHERN AND
EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES.
COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE SOMEWHAT LOWER THAN YESTERDAY AS MID-
LEVEL HEIGHTS SLOWLY RISE AND SUBSIDENCE INCREASES. HOWEVER,
GIVEN THE CURRENT ENVIRONMENT, STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
REMAIN POSSIBLE.
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC NEAR FL WILL
BUILD NORTHWARD, SHIFTING THE FOCUS OF DIURNAL CONVECTION
FARTHER WEST THROUGH THE WEEK. MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE
TO RISE INTO WED/THU, RESULTING IN A GRADUAL DECREASE IN
CONVECTION. A FEW EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES WITHIN A WEAK UPPER TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE CAROLINA'S ON THURSDAY COULD SUPPORT AN
UPTICK IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS, THOUGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW.
FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT THIS
WEEKEND, BRIBING ANOTHER INCREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA.
AS HAS BEEN EMPHASIZED OVER THE PAST WEEK, THE ONGOING HEAT
REMAINS A CONCERN, PARTICULARLY FOR LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVE
LIMITED RELIEF FROM THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN 3-6 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH SATURDAY,
WITH HEIGHT INDICES REACHING THE LOW TO MID-100S. MOST
LOCATIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA (108F), SO
NO HEAT ADVISORIES ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. CONTINUE TO
PRACTICE HEAT SAFETY, ESPECIALLY WITH PROLONGED HEAT EXPECTED TO
PERSIST. PLEASE REMAIN DILIGENT IF YOU HAVE OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES
PLANNED.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS IN AFTERNOON TSRA/SHRA.
REGIONAL RADAR SHOWING SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOP OVER THE
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL MIDLANDS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
SOME DRIER AIR IS PUSHING IN FROM THE WEST, AND AS THIS MOVES IN
IT SHOULD HELP TO MOVE THE CONVECTION FURTHER EAST AS THE
AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. NORTH AND EAST IS ALSO WHERE THE DEEPER
MOISTURE AND BETTER INSTABILITY IS LOCATED TOO.
WITH LOW RAIN CHANCES OVER THE CSRA, HAVE ELECTED TO LEAVE OUT
MENTION OF ANY RAINFALL AT THIS TIME THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD
AT AGS/DNL/AIK. FURTHER EAST AT CAE/CUB/OGB, WILL HAVE A BRIEF 2
HOUR TEMPO WINDOW FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAINING
CLOSE TO THOSE LOCATIONS BEFORE THE ACTIVITY MOVES FURTHER EAST,
THEN AFTER 20Z LEAVE MENTION OF ANY PRECIP OUT FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE PERIOD.
OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.
IF A SHOWER DOES IMPACT A SITE, BRIEF MVFR VISIBILITIES AND
GUSTY WINDS MAY OCCUR.
WINDS WILL BE WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY BETWEEN 5-10 KNOTS EACH DAY,
WHILE DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN 5 KNOTS DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...DAILY RAIN CHANCES AND POSSIBLE
RESTRICTIONS CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ND
AVIATION...73
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