423
FXUS62 KCHS 111825
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
225 PM EDT MON MAY 11 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ALL SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TODAY. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE.
- 2) A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED ALONG THE GEORGIA
COAST ON TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TODAY. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE.
RECENT SPC MESOANALYSIS INDICATED SBCAPE AROUND 2000 J/KG WITH
LITTLE TO NO CIN ACROSS THE THE SC LOWCOUNTRY AND SE GA. IN
ADDITION, DCAPE IS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 700-900 J/KG THROUGH THE
REST OF THIS AFTERNOON. VISIBLE SATELLITE AND SFC OBSERVATIONS
INDICATED THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
AS THE FRONT APPROACHES, EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR ACROSS THE CWA WILL
INCREASE TO AROUND 45 KTS. GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF THE INSTABILITY
AND SHEAR, SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
DEVELOP ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE COLD FRONT.
RECENT RUNS OF THE WOFS, INDICATES THAT A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS
MAY DEVELOP ACROSS DORCHESTER/BERKELEY COUNTIES BY 18Z, PUSHING
COASTWARD THROUGH 19Z. WOFS INDICATES STRONG UPDRAFTS WITH ECHO
HEIGHTS BETWEEN 30-35 KFT. CONVECTION OF THIS NATURE WOULD BE
CAPABLE OF LOCALIZED STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS. TO THE SOUTH OF
THE CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY, COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN A BIT LESS. THE POTENTIAL FOR DEEP CONVECTION APPEARS GREATER
ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES.
THE COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MIDNIGHT.
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, NORTHEAST WINDS, OCCASIONALLY GUSTY, WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 2: A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED ALONG THE
GEORGIA COAST ON TUESDAY.
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. GUSTY
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT, TURNING FROM THE EAST-
NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY. THE GUSTY WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP A STRONG
LONGSHORE CURRENT WITH BUILDING BREAKER HEIGHTS. LOCAL CALCULATOR
SUPPORTS A HIGH RISK FOR THE GA BEACHES WITH GREATER ONSHORE FLOW.
THE SC COAST MAINTAINS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
PRIOR TO THE 18Z TAFS: A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPED NEAR THE SEA BREEZE OVER MOUNT PLEASANT, TRACKING TO THE
NORTHEAST. A SEA BREEZE WAS LOCATED OVER KJZI, DRIFTING SLOWLY
INLAND. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL REACH KCHS/KJZI BETWEEN 21-22Z,
PUSHING SOUTH TO KSAV BETWEEN 2-3Z. GIVEN WEAK INSTABILITY AND
STRONG LLVL CONVERGENCE, A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAY DEVELOP ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR TSRA WILL REMAIN ACROSS KCHS AND
KJZI. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, WINDS WILL TURN FROM THE NORTHEAST
AND INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS, WITH SOME GUSTS 2-3 HOURS FOLLOWING THE
FRONT. WINDS MAY DEVELOP REGULAR GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS BY 15Z
TUESDAY WITH THE ONSET OF DAYTIME MIXING..
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: A COLD FRONT COULD BRING BRIEF FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS DUE TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY
THURSDAY.
MARINE
TODAY AND TONIGHT: A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT, WITH
GUSTS EXCEEDING 25 KTS. THE COLD FRONT IS MOVING SLIGHTLY QUICKER
THE PREVIOUSLY FORECAST, THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE CHARLESTON
COUNTY NEARSHORE WATERS WILL START AT 8 PM THIS EVENING. SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REMAINING WATERS TONIGHT AND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH SEAS PEAKING TUESDAY AFTERNOON
BETWEEN 5 TO 8 FT. SEAS AND WINDS WILL IMPROVE TUESDAY EVENING AS
HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES FROM THE NORTH.
EXTENDED MARINE: HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS WELL TO OUR NORTH LATER
TUESDAY, THEN SHIFT OFFSHORE ON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT SHOULD
QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS EARLY THURSDAY. THOUGH, WINDS AND
SEAS SHOULDN'T BE HIGH ENOUGH TO PROMPT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES.
RIP CURRENTS: SEE KEY MESSAGE #2 ADDRESSING THE HIGH RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS FOR THE GA BEACHES ON TUESDAY. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS WILL YIELD A MODERATE RISK OF
RIP CURRENTS AT ALL OF OUR SC BEACHES ON TUESDAY. THOUGH, INTERNAL
MODELS ARE POINTING TOWARDS A HIGH RISK FOR OUR NORTHERN SC
BEACHES.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING FOR GAZ217-219-239-241.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT
TUESDAY FOR AMZ360.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ362-
364.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TUESDAY TO 3 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
FOR AMZ384.
NED
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