091
FXUS62 KCHS 221115
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
715 AM EDT WED APR 22 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH LOW AFTERNOON HUMIDITY EXPECTED
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.
- 2) A COLD FRONT COULD PROVIDE SOME MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL ACROSS
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH LOW AFTERNOON HUMIDITY
EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. ALOFT, A BROAD H5 TROUGH OVER THE
REGION TODAY WILL SHIFT EAST OVER THE ATLANTIC TONIGHT, WITH HEIGHTS
RISING AS A RIDGE AXIS RIPPLES OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY.
THIS PATTERN SHOULD YIELD A DRY AND WARM PATTERN ACROSS SE GA AND SC
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD FAVOR
VALUES IN THE LOW TO MID 80S TODAY, WARMING TO THE MID TO UPPER 80S
ON FRIDAY. THE WARM AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT
MIXING IN EXCESS OF 8 KFT THIS AFTERNOON AND 10 KFT ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. THE DEEP MIXING SHOULD KEEP AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S,
WITH THE LOWEST VALUES ACROSS THE I-16 CORRIDOR. THE DEWPOINT
FORECAST WAS CONSTRUCTED OF A BLEND OF THE NBM DETERMINISTIC AND
NBM10 EACH AFTERNOON. FORTUNATELY, THE SFC PATTERN AND WARM
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RESULT IN A SEA BREEZE EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, PROVIDING SOME LATE DAY HUMIDITY RECOVERY. WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN BETWEEN 10-15 MPH DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS,
GUSTS POSSIBLE AFTER THE SEA BREEZE. GIVEN VERY DRY FUELS AND LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY, FIRE DANGER WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY CONCERN EACH
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2: A COLD FRONT COULD PROVIDE SOME MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL
ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA THIS WEEKEND.
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT A H5 SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO
RIPPLE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. ON SATURDAY. AT THE SFC, A COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST, STRETCHING ACROSS THE FALL
LINE OF THE CAROLINAS AND GEORGIA BY THE AFTERNOON. AS A SEA BREEZE
DEVELOPS SATURDAY AFTERNOON, INCREASING MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND
WEAK INSTABILITY MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE COVERAGE OF CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO PEAK SATURDAY EVENING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORT WAVE
AND SFC COLD FRONT. ECMWF AND GFS AI MODELS INDICATES THAT RAINFALL
MAY REMAIN INTO SUNDAY AS A AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE
FRONT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. RAINFALL THIS WEEKEND DOES NOT LOOK
HEAVY, IN FACT, NBM INDICATES JUST A 30% OF A HALF INCH DURING THE
PEAK 24 HR RAINFALL. HOWEVER, ANY RAINFALL WILL BE BENEFICIAL AS A
SEVERE TO EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT CONTINUES ACROSS SE GA AND SC.
AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR THROUGH THE 12Z TAF PERIOD AT KCHS/KJZI/KSAV. GUSTY SE WINDS
WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SEA BREEZE PUSHES INLAND,
WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE. GUSTS WILL WANE WITH
NIGHTFALL.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH A SEA BREEZE LIKELY TO OCCUR EACH AFTERNOON. A FEW
SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS COULD IMPACT THE TERMINALS LATE
SATURDAY.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL SLOWLY SHIFT
SOUTH WITH A WEAKENING COLD FRONT DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS,
FAVORING A SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS LOCAL WATERS FOR MUCH OF THE
WEEK. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN AROUND 10-15 KT OR
LESS WITH SOME SLIGHT ENHANCEMENT ALONG THE LAND/SEA INTERFACE
WHERE A DAILY SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS, THEN SHIFTS INLAND. A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
CPM/NED
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