562
FXUS62 KCHS 040038
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
838 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED, WITH THE THREAT FOR FOG DIMINISHING
ACROSS COASTAL GA, BUT CONTINUING FOR INLAND SE GA AND THE SC
LOWCOUNTRY.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) RAIN CHANCES TO INCREASE LATE WEEKEND THROUGH LABOR DAY.
- 2) HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: RAIN CHANCES TO INCREASE LATE WEEKEND THROUGH LABOR
DAY.
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY: DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDING ACROSS THE MIDWEST TO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES
WILL PLAY A LARGE ROLE IN HOW MUCH PRECIP/PRECIP COVERAGE IS
EXPERIENCED ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE WEEKEND, KEEPING THE BULK OF
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A MOISTURE PLUME
SHIFTING ONSHORE MAINLY ACROSS AREAS IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA, AND
PERHAPS MORESO NEAR THE ALTAMAHA RIVER OR JUST SOUTH OF THE LOCAL
AREA FOR THE REST OF TODAY. TRENDS IN GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGEST AN
INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE REGION OVERNIGHT FOR AREAS WELL INLAND WHERE CONDENSATION
PRESSURE DEFICITS ARE MOST FAVORABLE UNDER HIGH PRESSURE AND
POSSIBLY AT LOCATIONS THAT EXPERIENCE RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON AND/OR EVENING. SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS
FOR REDUCED VSBYS DUE TO FOG COULD EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED. ON FRIDAY,
THE POSITION OF THE MID-UPPER LVL RIDGE AXIS HOLDS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST, BUT MOISTENING LOW-LVLS AND THE CONTINUATION OF H5 VORT
ENERGY SHIFTING ONSHORE SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE LOCALLY, WITH PERHAPS SOME ENHANCED COVERAGE NEAR THE
VICINITY OF A SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA DURING
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS. SATURDAY SHOULD SEE SIMILAR
RESULTS IN REGARDS TO PRECIP COVERAGE ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA, BUT
LOW-LVL MOISTURE SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE DRAWN ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH LATE DAY.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH LABOR DAY: A COLD FRONT IS ANTICIPATED TO
ARRIVE SATURDAY NIGHT, POSSIBLY STALLING LOCALLY FOR A BRIEF PERIOD
ON SUNDAY, BEFORE SLIDING SOUTH TO NORTHERN/CENTRAL FLORIDA THROUGH
LABOR DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE WEDGES INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH/INLAND. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT,
AND EVEN A NON-ZERO RISK FOR AN ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY CONCERN GIVEN HOT/HUMID
CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH AN UPTICK IN FORCING LATE WEEKEND. EVEN
WITH THE FRONT BECOMING DISPLACED WELL TO THE SOUTH EARLY NEXT WEEK,
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST LOCALLY THROUGH LABOR DAY.
BREEZY CONDITIONS COULD ALSO OCCUR (ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST) WITH
AND POST FROPA AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BECOMES PINCHED WHILE THE
WEDGE DEVELOPS INLAND.
KEY MESSAGE 2...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH SATURDAY OVER THE AREA
WITH THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE PARKED OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC. HOT
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. GIVEN OUR
POSITION WITHIN THE RIDGE AXIS, MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY
INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND INCREASED
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. CLOUD
COVER AND RAIN MAY LIMIT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 80S
TO LOW 90S ON FRIDAY; HOWEVER, WITH THE INCREASED MOISTURE
DEWPOINTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO HOVER IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S AND EVEN
SOME LOW 80S BEHIND THE SLOWLY ADVANCING SEABREEZE BOUNDARY EACH
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN HEAT INDICES STILL MANAGING TO RANGE
FROM AROUND 100 TO 105 DEGREES.
WHILE THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN ON SATURDAY AS A TROUGH DEVELOPS ALONG
THE EAST COAST, SATURDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE THE HOTTEST DAY.
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT, COMPRESSIONAL HEATING COMBINED
WITH H850 TEMPERATURES NEAR 20 DEG C ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S ALONG THE COAST AND UP
INTO THE MID 90S FOR INLAND AREAS. WILL NEED TO WATCH TO SEE WHERE
THE HIGHEST DEWPOINTS END UP, AS AREAS THAT SEE DEW POINTS RISE INTO
THE UPPER 70S WILL LIKELY SEE HEAT INDEX VALUES RISE INTO THE 108-
112 DEGREE F RANGE, WHICH WOULD REQUIRE A HEAT ADVISORY. CURRENTLY,
HIGHEST DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH
CAROLINA, WITH LOWER VALUES ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WHERE HEAT
INDEX VALUES OF 103-108 ARE STILL EXPECTED. HOWEVER, A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE POSSIBLE BY THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT/ASSOCIATED
CLOUD COVER COULD CUT INTO THE EXCESSIVE HEAT RESULTING IN LOWER
VALUES ACROSS THE AREA. IF WE ARE ABLE TO HEAT UP AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING FRONT AND DEWPOINTS SURGE INLAND WITHOUT RAIN, HEAT
ADVISORIES WOULD BE LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTH CAROLINA
LOWCOUNTRY INTO COASTAL GA. BY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, A COLD
FRONT LOOKS TO PUSH THROUGH, BRINGING AN END TO THIS STRETCH OF HOT
AND HUMID CONDITIONS.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY PREVAIL THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS
LIGHT EAST WINDS TREND SOUTHEAST. GRADIENT ALONG THE SC COAST
AND COASTAL GA IS LIKELY SUFFICIENT TO PRECLUDE ANY FOG THREAT,
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO INLAND PORTIONS OF THE
LOWCOUNTRY WILL AGAIN BRING THE THREAT FOR PATCHY FOG. KCHS IS
WITHIN THE TRANSITION ZONE, WHERE THERE MAY BE ENOUGH DECOUPLING
TO DEVELOP PATCHY FOG, WHILE JZI AND SAV ARE MORE LIKELY TO SEE
LIGHT WINDS PREVAIL ENOUGH TO KEEP VFR CONDITIONS IN THE
FORECAST.
FEW TO SCATTERED SHOWERS RETURN FRIDAY AFTERNOON, WHICH COULD
IMPACT THE SAV BY AROUND 16Z. A PROB30 GROUP FOR MVFR VSBYS
ASSOCIATED WITH SHOWERS CONTINUES AT SAV BETWEEN 16-18Z FRIDAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: CHANCES FOR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WITH
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE AT ALL TERMINALS THIS WEEKEND PRIOR
TO AND DURING A PASSING COLD FRONT. PERIODIC FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE
MORE LIKELY SUNDAY/MONDAY NEAR AND POST COLD FROPA GIVEN GREATER
PRECIP COVERAGE. BREEZY CONDITIONS COULD ALSO DEVELOP AT ALL
TERMINALS AS A WEDGE ATTEMPTS TO TAKE SHAPE INLAND.
MARINE
TODAY AND TONIGHT: HIGH PRESSURE NORTH/OFFSHORE AND WEAK COASTAL
TROUGHING NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST FAVOR QUIET MARINE CONDITIONS
WITH NO HEADLINE CONCERNS THROUGH TONIGHT. IN GENERAL, ONSHORE WINDS
SHOULD GUST AROUND 15-20 KT THIS AFTERNOON, BEFORE WEAKENING DURING
THE NIGHT. SEAS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 2-4 FT.
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY: IN GENERAL, ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD PEAK BETWEEN
10-15 KT DAILY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH GREATEST ENHANCEMENT ALONG
COASTAL AREAS DURING AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS. SEAS SHOULD
RANGE BETWEEN 2-4 FT. A COLD FRONT SHOULD THEN ARRIVE SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY, RESULTING IN A SURGE OF WINDS (20-25 KT) AND BUILDING
SEAS (4-6 FT) THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES COULD
BE NEEDED FOR A MAJORITY OF LOCAL WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
RIP CURRENTS: THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS ALONG
BEACHES INTO EARLY EVENING FROM BEAUFORT COUNTY EXTENDING SOUTH INTO
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA, WITH 3-4 FT SEAS EVERY 10-11 SECONDS.
COASTAL FLOODING: ELEVATED HIGH TIDES RETURN SUNDAY AFTERNOON
DURING THE LUNAR PERIGEE (9/6), AND LINGER THROUGHOUT THE WEEK
UNTIL AFTER THE NEW MOON (9/11). WITH ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES
RANGING FROM 6.3 TO 6.55 FT MLLW IN THE CHARLESTON HARBOR THROUGHOUT
THE WEEK, TIDAL DEPARTURES OF 0.45 TO 0.7 FT WOULD RESULT IN MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING. A HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE MAY SET UP ALONG THE EAST
COAST NEXT WEEK, WHICH COULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING THE TIDAL
DEPARTURES LEADING TO COASTAL FLOODING, ESPECIALLY ALONG COASTAL
CHARLESTON AND COLLETON COUNTIES. FOR THE REST OF THE SOUTHEAST
SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA COASTLINE, TIDAL DEPARTURES
WOULD NEED TO BE IN EXCESS OF 1 FOOT, SO COASTAL FLOODING APPEARS
UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
BLACK/CEB/DPB
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