662
FXUS62 KCHS 081740
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1240 PM EST THU JAN 8 2026
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE SUNDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE. YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT COULD
IMPACT THE SOUTHEAST STATES BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
FOG HAS LINGERED ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE IMPROVING AWAY FROM LOCATIONS ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE AND TEMPERATURES HAVE BEGUN RISING INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 60S. THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES
TODAY TO REACH INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S. ALONG THE BEACHES, HOWEVER,
THE FOG IS BEING PARTICULARLY STUBBORN. WHILE THE FOG IS NOT
TECHNICALLY SEA FOG, IT IS BEING INFLUENCED BY THE ADJACENT COOLER
WATERS AND WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
POTENTIALLY INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
CONDITIONS TONIGHT LOOK PRIME FOR FOG FORMATION ONCE AGAIN. A
WEAK STALLED FRONT IS LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AS
OF NOONTIME, AND IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY PROGRESS BACK NORTHWARD
AS A WARM FRONT THIS EVENING. THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AS RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES. THIS SW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT
A WARM, MOIST AIRMASS INTO THE REGION WITH OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES ONLY BOTTOMING OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.
PROBABILITIES OF VISIBILITIES <0.5 MILES ARE SIMILAR TO THAT OF
LAST NIGHT AND CONDENSATIONS PRESSURE DEFICITS ARE SLIGHTLY
LOWER. FOG REMAINS IN THE FORECAST AND A DENSE FOG ADVISORY
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS, IF NOT ALL, OF THE FORECAST
AREA TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY: A WARM AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH THE REGION WITH HOLDING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF HIGH PRESSURE AS IT SHIFTS OFFSHORE OF THE MID-ATLATIC STATES.
ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG APPEARS LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOW
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS AND HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE LEVELS
PROGGED. SOME OF THE FOG COULD BE DENSE, POSSIBLY REACHING DENSE FOG
ADVISORY CRITERIA. DRY CONDITIONS WILL MOSTLY PREVAIL AS RIDGING
ALOFT BUILDS AND SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION AHEAD OF STORM SYSTEM
ORGANIZING OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. A FEW
MARINE-BASED SHOWERS COULD BRUSH PARTS OF THE COAST, MAINLY FROM
TYBEE ISLAND NORTH, AS THE RETURN FLOW VEERS MORE SOUTHERLY AS A
WEAK COASTAL TROUGH LIFTS NORTH FRIDAY MORNING. SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
IS UNLIKELY AND LOOKS TO MAINLY CONCENTRATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY COINCIDENT WITH A STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. HIGHS LOOK TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S/LOWER
80S BOTH AFTERNOONS (EXCEPT COOLER AT THE BEACHES) AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S/NEAR 60, EXCEPT A FEW MID 50S
POSSIBLE IN THE FRANCIS MARION NATIONAL FOREST. RECORD HIGHS COULD
BE CHALLENGED EACH DAY WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT CHALLENGING THE RECORD
HIGH MINIMUMS. SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR SPECIFIC RECORDS.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY: A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING AS A POWERFUL SHORTWAVE PIVOTS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. A BAND OF RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL LIKELY BE IN A
WEAKENING PHASE AS THE CORRIDOR OF STRONGEST FORCING WITH THE GREAT
LAKES SHORTWAVE WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE 165 KT POLAR
JET PASS BY WELL TO THE NORTH. HOW QUICKLY THE FRONTAL BAND WEAKENS
IS STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN WITH AREAS ACROSS FAR INTERIOR SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA THE MOST LIKELY TO SEE MEASURABLE RAINFALL. POPS WILL RANGE
30-60% FOR NOW, HIGHEST IN THE ALLENDALE-REIDSVILLE CORRIDOR, BUT
FURTHER REFINEMENTS IN BOTH THE QPF AND POPS ARE LIKELY. LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S WELL INLAND TO THE UPPER 50S AT THE COAST.
THE RECORD HIGH MINIMUMS COULD AGAIN BE CHALLENGED, ESPECIALLY AT
KCHS. HIGHS BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S
WELL INLAND TO THE MID 60S EAST OF I-95. SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION
BELOW FOR SPECIFIC RECORDS.
MODEST COLD AIR ADVECTION COULD PUSH WINDS TO NEAR LAKE WIND
ADVISORY LEVELS ON LAKE MOULTRIE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
MODEST COLD AIR ADVECTION COULD PUSH WINDS TO NEAR LAKE WIND
ADVISORY LEVELS ON LAKE MOULTRIE SUNDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE,
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS NEXT WEEK AS A
MODIFIED CANADIAN AIRMASS PREVAILS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. A
COULD FRONT COULD BRING AN INCREASED RISK FOR LIGHT RAINFALL BY MID-
WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
FOG HAS FINALLY CLEARED THE TERMINALS AND THE 18Z TAF PERIOD
WILL START WITH VFR CONDITIONS AT KCHS/KJZI/KSAV. HOWEVER, FOG
IS IN THE FORECAST AGAIN TONIGHT WITH IMPACTS BEGINNING AS EARLY
AS 03Z. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO IFR AND LIFR AS FOG
OVERSPREADS THE REGION. SIMILAR TO TODAY THE FOG COULD BE SLOW
TO SCOUR AND HAVE FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS INTO THE MID TO LATE
MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: THERE IS A RISK FOR SIGNIFICANT FOG
IMPACTING ALL THREE TERMINALS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. A
BAND OF SHOWERS WITH A COLD FRONT MAY BRING REDUCED VSBYS EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
MARINE
REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT: LOCAL WEBCAMS AND SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOW THAT FOG IS LINGERING ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE
THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE NOT TECHNICALLY SEA FOG, THE FOG IS BEING
INFLUENCED BY THE RELATIVELY COOLER MARINE WATERS. THE MARINE
DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL 4 PM. IT IS LIKELY
THAT THIS ADVISORY WILL EITHER NEED TO BE EXTENDED AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON, OR CANCELED AND REISSUED WITH THE THREAT OF FOG AGAIN
TONIGHT. CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MARINE ZONES WILL REMAIN WITHIN A
LIGHT WIND REGIME, GENERALLY AROUND 5 KNOTS. AS THE WARM AND
MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS OVER THE REGION THE THREAT OF SEA FOG WILL
CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE CURRENT FOG IS VERY
STUBBORN TO SCOUR.
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY: THE RISK FOR MARINE FOG COULD LINGER OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS INTO THE DAY FRIDAY WITH FOG POSSIBLY REDEVELOPING
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS A WARM, MOIST AIRMASS HOLDS ACROSS THE
REGION. THE FOG COULD BE DENSE WITH VSBYS 1 NM OR LESS, SO MARINE
DENSE FOG ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED. THE RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS FROM BOTH WINDS AND SEAS WILL PEAK SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT AS MODEST COLD AIR ADVECTION OCCURS BEHIND A COLD
FRONT.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
JANUARY 9:
KCHS: 78/2012
KCXM: 76/1974
KSAV: 77/2008
JANUARY 10:
KCHS: 79/2008
KSAV: 81/1972
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
JANUARY 9:
KCHS: 58/1946
JANUARY 10:
KCHS: 60/1974
KCXM: 62/1974
KSAV: 63/1937
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ330-
350-352-354.
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
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