253
FXUS62 KCHS 170433
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1233 AM EDT WED JUL 17 2019
SYNOPSIS
THE AREA WILL REMAIN SITUATED BETWEEN AN AREA OF WEAK LOW
PRESSURE INLAND AND HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/
A COUPLE OF STRAY T-STORMS NEAR THE SAVANNAH RIVER AND OUTSIDE
THE FORECAST REGION WILL NOT IMPACT ANY OUR COUNTIES OVERNIGHT,
THUS KEEPING A FORECAST THAT IS FREE OF ANY RAINFALL. OTHER THAN
FEW-SCATTERED CIRRUS CLOUDS AND MAYBE A LITTLE STRATUS IN SPOTS
CLOSE TO DAYBREAK, SKIES WILL BE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY. TEMPS
WILL NOT BE ABLE TO FALL ANY MORE THAN ANOTHER 3-5F GIVEN THE
ELEVATED DEW POINTS AND LIGHT SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SYNOPTIC FLOW.
SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/
THE MID-LEVELS WILL CONSIST OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST
WEDNESDAY MORNING WHILE A SHORTWAVE STRETCHES FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION SOUTHWARDS INTO THE TN VALLEY. THE HIGH WILL
DISSIPATE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE PASSES TO OUR
NORTH. THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
OFF THE COAST OF THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. THURSDAY. THOUGH, IT'S
SOUTHERN HALF SHOULD BE SLOWER TO MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN
U.S., LINGERING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT, THEN DISSIPATING EARLY
FRIDAY. HEIGHTS SHOULD BUILD LATER FRIDAY. AT THE SURFACE, OUR
AREA WILL BE SANDWICHED BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE IN THE ATLANTIC
AND TROUGHING INLAND. PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE
THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM. PWATS WILL BE ~1.75 WEDNESDAY,
CREEPING UP TO ~2" THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE TYPICAL INSTABILITY
FOR JULY WILL BE IN PLACE EACH AFTERNOON. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
TO INITIATE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE AND SPREAD INLAND EACH
AFTERNOON, DISSIPATING AROUND SUNSET. THEN, MORE CONVECTION
SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT. GIVEN THE
PULSE NATURE OF THE STORMS, A MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY. BUT THE MORE
NOTICEABLE IMPACT WILL PROBABLY BE THE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
FROM THESE STORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL. HEAT
INDICES WILL PEAK CLOSE TO 110 DEGREES EACH AFTERNOON, MAINLY
ALONG THE COAST AND ACROSS PARTS OF SC. THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAT
ADVISORIES WILL NEED TO BE EVALUATED EACH DAY.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
MODERATE CONFIDENCE THIS PERIOD. THE LOW-LEVEL LEE-SIDE TROUGH
LOOKS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD WHILE SOME UPPER RIDGING
TRIES TO GIVE WAY TO MORE TROUGHING, ESPECIALLY BY TUESDAY. FOR
NOW WE HAVE MAINTAINED A CLIMATOLOGY AND PERSISTENCE FORECAST AS
FAR AS RAIN CHANCES (MOSTLY AROUND 30 PERCENT) WITH
TEMPERATURES REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL. HEAT INDICES WILL REMAIN
HIGH, BUT MAINLY BELOW THE ADVISORY THRESHOLD OF 110 DEGREES.
AVIATION /05Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
COULD SEE SOME SHALLOW GROUND AROUND KCHS LATE TONIGHT, BUT NO
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL,
BUT WE COULD AGAIN SEE THUNDERSTORMS NEAR BOTH TERMINALS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW AT THIS POINT TO
INCLUDE EXPLICITLY IN THE TAF.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE DURING AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
MARINE
REST OF TONIGHT: THE COASTAL WATERS WILL REMAIN SITUATED
BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND A WEAK
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER LAND. THE PATTERN WILL FAVOR A WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS ALL WATERS, SUPPORTING MAINLY S-SW WINDS
AROUND 10 KTS OR LESS. SEAS WILL GENERALLY RANGE BETWEEN 1-2
FT, BUT COULD BUILD AS HIGH AS 3 FT BEYOND 50 NM IN OFFSHORE
GEORGIA WATERS LATE TONIGHT. WE'LL NEED TO MAINTAIN A CLOSE
WATCH FOR A POSSIBLE WATERSPOUTS RISK CLOSE TO DAYBREAK AND INTO
THE MORNING DAYLIGHT HOURS GIVEN THE LIGHT WIND FIELDS WITHIN A
SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT.
EXTENDED MARINE: THE AREA WILL REMAIN SITUATED BETWEEN AN AREA
OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE INLAND AND HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL LEAD TO WINDS MAINLY
FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST. ASIDE FROM THE TYPICAL AFTERNOON
INCREASE WITH THE SEA BREEZE, SUSTAINED WINDS SHOULD STAY BELOW
15 KT. NO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE EXPECTED.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...MS
LONG TERM...RJB
AVIATION...
MARINE...
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