100
FXUS62 KCHS 170710
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
310 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN RECORD HIGHS BEING CHALLENGED THIS
AFTERNOON, THEN AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ADDED KEY MESSAGE FOR
POTENTIAL MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE SC COAST THIS
WEEKEND. RAIN CHANCES HAVE INCREASED SLIGHTLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON,
THOUGH SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS STILL NOT EXPECTED.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) RECORD-SETTING HEAT POSSIBLE TODAY AND SATURDAY AS DRY
WEATHER CONTINUES.
- 2) MINOR COASTAL FLOODING POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST WITH THE EVENING HIGH TIDES THIS WEEKEND.
- 3) A COLD FRONT WILL BRING LOW END RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY,
FOLLOWED BY A BRIEF COOLDOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: RECORD-SETTING HEAT POSSIBLE TODAY AND SATURDAY AS DRY
WEATHER CONTINUES.
MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH LATE WEEK.
HEIGHTS BRIEFLY WEAKEN TODAY AS A SHORTWAVE PASSES BY TO THE
NORTH, BEFORE REBUILDING FOR SATURDAY. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RESIDE OFFSHORE WITH A TROUGH INLAND. THIS PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH
SATURDAY. ECMWF EFI FOR MAXT IS SITTING AROUND 95-100% ACROSS
MOST OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS, AND HIGHS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 90S THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WILL PUT DAILY RECORDS IN JEOPARDY (SEE CLIMATE
SECTION BELOW).
ADDITIONALLY, THE LATEST DROUGHT MONITOR INDICATES
D4/EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT OVER A SMALL PORTION OF INTERIOR
SOUTHEAST GA, WITH A RECENT EXPANSION OF THE D3/EXTREME DROUGHT
TO ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE REMAINING AREA. THESE PERSISTENT, VERY
DRY CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH RH VALUES DIPPING INTO THE MID-20S
AHEAD OF THE SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON
ARE CONCERNING FROM A FIRE WEATHER STANDPOINT, THOUGHT WINDS
REMAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE ARE EXPECTED TO KEEP THE THREAT FOR
RAPID WILDFIRE SPREAD LIMITED.
KEY MESSAGE 2: MINOR COASTAL FLOODING POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST WITH THE EVENING HIGH TIDES THIS WEEKEND.
THE COMBINATION OF THE NEW MOON (TODAY) AND PERIGEE (SUNDAY)
WILL BRING ELEVATED ASTRONOMICAL TIDAL RANGES THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE WITH THE
SATURDAY EVENING HIGH TIDE ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. TIDE
LEVELS WILL BE ELEVATED AGAIN WITH THE SUNDAY EVENING HIGH TIDE,
BUT THE COASTAL FLOODING THREAT IS UNCERTAIN AND DEPENDENT ON
THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE DAY AND THE
DIRECTION OF THE POST-FRONTAL WINDS.
KEY MESSAGE 3: A COLD FRONT WILL BRING LOW END RAIN CHANCES
SUNDAY, FOLLOWED BY A BRIEF COOLDOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING INTO THE EASTERN CONUS ON SUNDAY,
BRINGING AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WITH IT. THE GREATEST PRE-
FRONTAL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL GENERALLY REMAIN NORTH OF THE
AREA, THOUGH AT LEAST A FEW SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
OR TWO ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE LOWCOUNTRY OR SAVANNAH
RIVER CORRIDOR. SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL REMAINS UNLIKELY, THOUGH
PROBS HAVE CREPT UP A BIT WITH THE PROBABILITY FOR 24 HR
RAINFALL >0.10" NOW 15-25% ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. OTHERWISE,
TEMPERATURES FOLLOWING FROPA WILL BE NOTABLY COOLER THAN
PREVIOUS DAYS. MONDAY HIGHS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL BEFORE
MODERATING TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. LOWS ARE EVEN
EXPECTED TO DIP BACK INTO THE 40S. STILL NO NOTABLE RAIN CHANCES
IN THE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
KCHS/KJZI/KSAV: VFR CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA. MAINLY LIGHT
WINDS THROUGH THIS MORNING, BECOMING GUSTY AS THE SEA BREEZE
CROSSES THE TERMINALS MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: ELEVATED WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
MARINE
MODEST GRADIENT ENHANCEMENT IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING BUT
DETERIORATING COLD FRONT THIS MORNING IS PRODUCING MODERATE
WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS. HOWEVER, THIS GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN
THROUGH THE MORNING, WITH MAINLY LIGHT WINDS PREVAILING OUTSIDE
OF THE SEA BREEZE CORRIDOR BY THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE, QUIET MARINE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO SATURDAY
WITH THE REGION REMAINING ALONG THE WESTERN FLANKS OF ATLANTIC
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE. SEA BREEZE ENHANCEMENTS
ALONG THE LAND/SEA INTERFACE AND CHARLESTON HARBOR ARE LIKELY
EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING.
A STRONG COLD FRONT IS POISED TO PUSH THROUGH THE WATERS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WITH WINDS QUICKLY RAMPING UP SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING IN RESPONSE TO POST-FRONTAL COLD AIR ADVECTION AND A RAPID
TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS OF 20-
30 KT ARE LIKELY WITH GUSTS APPROACHING GALE FORCE, ESPECIALLY OVER
THE 20-60 NM OFFSHORE ZONES. SEAS LOOK TO PEAK MONDAY, RANGING FROM
4-6 FT NEARSHORE WATERS TO 7-10 FT OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS (HIGHEST
OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS). SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY AND A
GALE WATCH/WARNING COULD BE NEEDED OVER THE OFFSHORE ZONES.
RIP CURRENTS: A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS REMAINS IN PLACE FOR
ALL BEACHES THROUGH SATURDAY DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF 2-3 FT SWELL
AROUND 10 SECONDS, MODEST ONSHORE FLOW, AND INCREASING ASTRONOMICAL
INFLUENCES ASSOCIATED WITH LUNAR PERIGEE/NEW MOON. AN ELEVATED RISK
FOR RIP CURRENTS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A PINCHED GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH A
PASSING COLD FRONT SUPPORTS A GUSTY NORTHEAST WIND EVENT ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
APRIL 17:
KCHS: 91/1967
KCXM: 86/2006
KSAV: 95/1967
APRIL 18:
KCHS: 92/1967
KSAV: 93/1967
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
CEB
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