035
FXUS62 KCHS 130020
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
820 PM EDT SAT SEP 12 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
KEY MESSAGE 1 AND THE AVIATION SECTION HAVE BEEN UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) THE RISK FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: THE RISK FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
TONIGHT: LATEST RADAR TRENDS INDICATE A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS,
MAINLY ACROSS THE FAR GA/SC INTERIOR, LIKELY TO DEPART INLAND DURING
THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO IN A SUB-SEVERE STATE. ISOLATED/SCATTERED
SHOWERS ALSO REMAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND
COASTAL GEORGIA, LIKELY TO TRACK NORTHEAST AND SHIFT OFFSHORE THIS
EVENING, WANING DURING THE PROCESS DUE TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. MUCH OF THE AREA IS ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN DRY DURING THE
OVERNIGHT, ALTHOUGH A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL
ATTEMPT TO CROSS OVER THE ALTAMAHA RIVER FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS
EVENING, BEFORE ERODING/DISSIPATING ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. LIKE
THE PREVIOUS NIGHT, PATCHY FOG COULD DEVELOP ACROSS LOCATIONS WELL
INLAND WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF DAYBREAK, MAINLY WHERE PRECIP HAS
OCCURRED TODAY.
SUNDAY: THE MID-LEVELS WILL CONSIST OF A WEAK TROUGH MOVING OVER OUR
AREA IN THE MORNING, THEN OFFSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE
PATTERN WILL BE RATHER DIFFUSE, WITH EITHER A WEAK FRONT WELL TO OUR
NORTH OR WEAK SURFACE TROUGHING OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL CAUSE DEEP MOISTURE TO BE OVER OUR AREA IN THE MORNING.
PWATS SHOULD EASILY BE ABOVE 2". THIS IS WELL ABOVE NORMAL PER
CHS SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY AND ABOUT 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS PER NAEFS.
HOWEVER, LOWER PWATS WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON, KEEPING THE HIGHEST PWATS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST,
BEFORE THEY ARE PUSHED OFFSHORE IN THE EVENING. MOST CAMS POINT
TO SCATTERED COVERAGE FORMING NEAR THE COAST IN THE AFTERNOON,
THEN SHIFTING OFFSHORE AND DISSIPATING IN THE EVENING. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, LEADING TO MODEST
INSTABILITY. ADDITIONALLY, HIGHER DCAPES BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
DURING THE AFTERNOON. SO WHILE WE'RE NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER, THERE COULD BE A FEW HOUR WINDOW WHERE STRONG TO MARGINALLY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT ALONG THE COAST. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. BUT THE STEERING LEVEL WINDS
MAY BE JUST STRONG ENOUGH TO LIMIT SIGNIFICANT FLOODING.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT CHS/JZI/SAV TERMINALS THROUGH 00Z
MONDAY. HOWEVER, A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COULD IMPACT THE
CHS/JZI TERMINALS SUNDAY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON, PRODUCING FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS. AT THIS TIME, COVERAGE AND TIMING CONFIDENCE REMAINS
TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE LATEST TAF ISSUANCE.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: PERIODIC FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DRIER
CONDITIONS RETURN ON MONDAY, POSSIBLY PERSISTING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
MARINE
TONIGHT: THE PRESSURE PATTERN WILL GENERALLY SUPPORT SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST WINDS BETWEEN 10 TO 15 KTS ACROSS THE MARINE ZONES.
SEAS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 2 TO 4 FT.
THROUGH THURSDAY: WEAK SURFACE TROUGHING INLAND WILL MAINTAIN
GENERALLY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. SPEEDS
SHOULD AVERAGE 10-15 KNOTS WITH SEAS 2-3 FEET. THE MAIN TIME PERIOD
OF CONCERN WILL BE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES
SOUTH INTO THE REGION AND WINDS TURN NORTHEAST AND STRENGTHEN. GUSTS
IN THE 25-30 KNOT RANGE AND 4-8 FOOT SEAS APPEAR LIKELY FOR MOST OF
THE WATERS, AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD EASE ON THURSDAY WITH CONDITIONS FALLING
BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.
COASTAL FLOODING: MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE WITH THE
TUESDAY MID-DAY HIGH TIDE ALONG THE CHARLESTON AND COLLETON COUNTY
COASTS. STRENGTHENING NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY WHICH
WILL INCREASE TIDAL DEPARTURES. THE TIDE WOULD NEED ~1 FT DEPARTURE
TO REACH MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS OF 7 FT MLLW IN THE CHARLESTON
HARBOR. MOST GUIDANCE INDICATES TIDE LEVELS COULD FALL RIGHT AROUND
THERE. A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY COULD BE NEEDED. NO ISSUES EXPECTED
FURTHER SOUTH ALONG THE LOWER SC AND SOUTHEAST GA COASTS.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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