496
FXUS62 KCHS 260000
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
800 PM EDT THU JUN 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
LIKELY APPROACHING TRIPLE DIGITS ON SUNDAY. HEAT ADVISORIES
COULD BE NEEDED THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, LIKELY APPROACHING TRIPLE DIGITS ON SUNDAY. HEAT
ADVISORIES COULD BE NEEDED THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
THE PRIMARY WEATHER CONCERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK CONTINUES TO BE BUILDING HEAT AND HUMIDITY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO STEADILY WARM INTO THE WEEKEND. MID
90S ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY,
FOLLOWED BY UPPER 90S AND POSSIBLY EVEN TRIPLE DIGITS ON SUNDAY.
MONDAY SHOULD THEN BRING MID TO UPPER 90S TO THE AREA. ALSO OF
NOTE, LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RISE EACH NIGHT AS WELL, PROVIDING
NO SIGNIFICANT RELIEF FROM THE DAYTIME HEAT. SUNDAY HIGHS COULD
APPROACH DAILY RECORDS, AND RECORD HIGH MINIMUMS WILL ALSO BE IN
PLAY. SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.
RISING TEMPERATURES WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING HUMIDITY
THANKS TO DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 70S EACH AFTERNOON. THIS
COMBINATION WILL YIELD INCREASINGLY UNCOMFORTABLE HEAT INDEX
VALUES STARTING SATURDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY. FOR
SATURDAY, HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE FORECAST TO RISE INTO THE
100-105 DEGREE RANGE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WITH POCKETS OF
105-110 POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST. THEN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY,
THE FOOTPRINT OF HEAT INDEX VALUES INTO THE 108-112 DEGREE RANGE
IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. AT THIS
TIME, IT APPEARS THE BEST CHANCE FOR MEETING HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA (108-112) WILL COME SUNDAY AND MONDAY PRIMARILY FOR THE
COASTAL COUNTIES. THERE COULD EVEN BE POCKETS OF HEAT INDEX
VALUES HIGHER THAN 112 DEGREES AND THE NEED FOR EXCESSIVE HEAT
WATCHES/WARNINGS CAN'T BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SUNDAY AND MONDAY
COULD COMPLICATE THINGS A BIT AS THE PRESENCE OF STORMS COULD
PREVENT SOME AREAS FROM REACHING PEAK HEATING AND HEAT INDEX
POTENTIAL. THIS PREVENTS FORECAST CONFIDENCE FROM BEING TOO HIGH
THIS FAR OUT. REGARDLESS, VERY HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT CHS/JZI/SAV TERMINALS
THROUGH 16Z FRIDAY. THE RISK FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
INCREASES FRIDAY AFTERNOON ALONG AND/OR AHEAD OF AN INLAND
MOVING SEA BREEZE. PROB30 GROUPS FOR 4SM -TSRA HAVE BEEN
INTRODUCED AT CHS BETWEEN 17-22Z FRIDAY AND AT SAV BETWEEN
19-23Z FRIDAY WHERE GREATER CHANCES OF PRECIP ARE FORECAST. JZI
COULD EXPERIENCE A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM FOR A SHORTER PERIOD
FRIDAY AFTERNOON, BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE
LATEST TAF ISSUANCE. SOUTH WINDS GUSTING UP TO 15-20 KT ARE
POSSIBLE DURING PEAK HEATING HOURS FRIDAY, PRIMARILY AT CHS/JZI
WHEN THE SEA BREEZE SHIFTS THROUGH.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: MOSTLY VFR.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT: SOUTHEAST FLOW THIS EVENING WILL GRADUALLY
TURN MORE SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
WIND SPEEDS SHOULD MOSTLY PEAK IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE. SEAS WILL
AVERAGE AROUND 2 FT.
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY: OVERALL, A PRETTY STANDARD SUMMERTIME
PATTERN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. SOME ENHANCED FLOW
WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO AROUND 25 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS. A
SIMILAR SURGE COULD OCCUR TUESDAY AS WELL. CONDITIONS COULD
BECOME MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF NEEDING A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.
OTHERWISE, THE STRONGEST FLOW WILL OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING PERIODS WITH THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION ALONG THE
LAND/SEA INTERFACE.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
JUNE 28:
KCHS: 99/1998
KSAV: 100/1998
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
JUNE 27:
KCHS: 77/2015
JUNE 28:
KCHS: 78/2013
KCXM: 81/1998
KSAV: 80/1880
JUNE 29:
KCHS: 79/1977
KSAV: 80/1885
JUNE 30:
KSAV: 79/1880
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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