253  
FXUS62 KCHS 170433  
AFDCHS  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC  
1233 AM EDT WED JUL 17 2019  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
THE AREA WILL REMAIN SITUATED BETWEEN AN AREA OF WEAK LOW  
PRESSURE INLAND AND HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE INTO EARLY NEXT  
WEEK.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/
 
 
A COUPLE OF STRAY T-STORMS NEAR THE SAVANNAH RIVER AND OUTSIDE  
THE FORECAST REGION WILL NOT IMPACT ANY OUR COUNTIES OVERNIGHT,  
THUS KEEPING A FORECAST THAT IS FREE OF ANY RAINFALL. OTHER THAN  
FEW-SCATTERED CIRRUS CLOUDS AND MAYBE A LITTLE STRATUS IN SPOTS  
CLOSE TO DAYBREAK, SKIES WILL BE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY. TEMPS  
WILL NOT BE ABLE TO FALL ANY MORE THAN ANOTHER 3-5F GIVEN THE  
ELEVATED DEW POINTS AND LIGHT SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SYNOPTIC FLOW.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
THE MID-LEVELS WILL CONSIST OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST  
WEDNESDAY MORNING WHILE A SHORTWAVE STRETCHES FROM THE GREAT  
LAKES REGION SOUTHWARDS INTO THE TN VALLEY. THE HIGH WILL  
DISSIPATE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE PASSES TO OUR  
NORTH. THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE  
OFF THE COAST OF THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. THURSDAY. THOUGH, IT'S  
SOUTHERN HALF SHOULD BE SLOWER TO MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN  
U.S., LINGERING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT, THEN DISSIPATING EARLY  
FRIDAY. HEIGHTS SHOULD BUILD LATER FRIDAY. AT THE SURFACE, OUR  
AREA WILL BE SANDWICHED BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE IN THE ATLANTIC  
AND TROUGHING INLAND. PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE  
THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM. PWATS WILL BE ~1.75 WEDNESDAY,  
CREEPING UP TO ~2" THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE TYPICAL INSTABILITY  
FOR JULY WILL BE IN PLACE EACH AFTERNOON. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED  
TO INITIATE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE AND SPREAD INLAND EACH  
AFTERNOON, DISSIPATING AROUND SUNSET. THEN, MORE CONVECTION  
SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT. GIVEN THE  
PULSE NATURE OF THE STORMS, A MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM  
WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY. BUT THE MORE  
NOTICEABLE IMPACT WILL PROBABLY BE THE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL  
FROM THESE STORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL. HEAT  
INDICES WILL PEAK CLOSE TO 110 DEGREES EACH AFTERNOON, MAINLY  
ALONG THE COAST AND ACROSS PARTS OF SC. THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAT  
ADVISORIES WILL NEED TO BE EVALUATED EACH DAY.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
 
 
MODERATE CONFIDENCE THIS PERIOD. THE LOW-LEVEL LEE-SIDE TROUGH  
LOOKS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD WHILE SOME UPPER RIDGING  
TRIES TO GIVE WAY TO MORE TROUGHING, ESPECIALLY BY TUESDAY. FOR  
NOW WE HAVE MAINTAINED A CLIMATOLOGY AND PERSISTENCE FORECAST AS  
FAR AS RAIN CHANCES (MOSTLY AROUND 30 PERCENT) WITH  
TEMPERATURES REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL. HEAT INDICES WILL REMAIN  
HIGH, BUT MAINLY BELOW THE ADVISORY THRESHOLD OF 110 DEGREES.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /05Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
 
 
COULD SEE SOME SHALLOW GROUND AROUND KCHS LATE TONIGHT, BUT NO  
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL,  
BUT WE COULD AGAIN SEE THUNDERSTORMS NEAR BOTH TERMINALS  
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW AT THIS POINT TO  
INCLUDE EXPLICITLY IN THE TAF.  
 
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE  
POSSIBLE DURING AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
REST OF TONIGHT: THE COASTAL WATERS WILL REMAIN SITUATED  
BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND A WEAK  
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER LAND. THE PATTERN WILL FAVOR A WEAK  
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS ALL WATERS, SUPPORTING MAINLY S-SW WINDS  
AROUND 10 KTS OR LESS. SEAS WILL GENERALLY RANGE BETWEEN 1-2  
FT, BUT COULD BUILD AS HIGH AS 3 FT BEYOND 50 NM IN OFFSHORE  
GEORGIA WATERS LATE TONIGHT. WE'LL NEED TO MAINTAIN A CLOSE  
WATCH FOR A POSSIBLE WATERSPOUTS RISK CLOSE TO DAYBREAK AND INTO  
THE MORNING DAYLIGHT HOURS GIVEN THE LIGHT WIND FIELDS WITHIN A  
SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT.  
 
EXTENDED MARINE: THE AREA WILL REMAIN SITUATED BETWEEN AN AREA  
OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE INLAND AND HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE INTO  
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL LEAD TO WINDS MAINLY  
FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST. ASIDE FROM THE TYPICAL AFTERNOON  
INCREASE WITH THE SEA BREEZE, SUSTAINED WINDS SHOULD STAY BELOW  
15 KT. NO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE EXPECTED.  
 

 
   
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
GA...NONE.  
SC...NONE.  
MARINE...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
NEAR TERM...  
SHORT TERM...MS  
LONG TERM...RJB  
AVIATION...  
MARINE...  
 
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