498
FXUS62 KCHS 072322
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
722 PM EDT SUN JUN 7 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE AVIATION SECTION WAS UPDATED FOR THE 0Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) GRADUAL INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES EARLY THIS WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: GRADUAL INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES EARLY THIS WEEK.
RAIN CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THIS WEEK AS TROUGHING
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND DEEPER MOISTURE SPREADS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST VIA SOUTHERLY FLOW. MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
MONDAY DUE TO LINGERING INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE ALOFT, WITH ONLY
A SLIGHT UPTICK IN POPS. RAIN CHANCES THEN INCREASE TUESDAY AS
THE GREATEST INFLUENCE FROM FORCING AND MOISTURE OVERLAP THE
AREA AHEAD OF A WEAKENING COLD FRONT. HOWEVER, GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING
THE REGION, KEEPING PRECIP COVERAGE LIMITED.
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK, EXPECT A TYPICAL SUMMER-LIKE
PATTERN WITH ACTIVITY DRIVEN BY WEAK FORCING AND DIURNAL HEATING.
THIS WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EACH AFTERNOON, TRIGGERING MAINLY ALONG THE SEA BREEZE. THE
THREAT FOR SEVERE OR HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
0Z TAFS: VFR. HIGH CLOUDS SOURCED FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTION WILL
REMAIN PLENTIFUL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A WEAK SEA BREEZE IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON, WINDS SHOULD SHIFT
FROM THE SOUTH BETWEEN 5 TO 10 KTS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM COULD
RESULT IN BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS TUESDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK.
MARINE
TODAY AND TONIGHT: SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN ATLANTIC HIGH. SEAS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 2-3
FT.
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE
OVER THE MARINE WATERS MONDAY, WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT POSSIBLY
APPROACHING ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE SOUTH,
WITH A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN OF A SURGE IN GUSTS ALONG THE
COAST WITH THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
BRS/NED
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