653
FXUS62 KCHS 102308
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
708 PM EDT WED JUN 10 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ALL SECTIONS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE LATE THIS WEEK AS WE RETURN TO
A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN.
- 2) AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES COULD CLIMB INTO THE 105 TO 110
DEGREE RANGE ACROSS THE I-95/COASTAL CORRIDOR THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE LATE THIS WEEK AS WE
RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN.
THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AND THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO
BREAK DOWN. THIS WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST WHILE ALSO DECREASING THE LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE,
RESULTING IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTORMS THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT IS THEN FORECAST TO APPROACH THE REGION
THIS WEEKEND, PROVIDING AN ADDITIONAL FORCING MECHANISM FOR
SHOWERS/TSTORMS. THERE COULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT A
FEW STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
WEEKEND.
KEY MESSAGE 2: AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES COULD CLIMB INTO THE 105
TO 110 DEGREE RANGE ACROSS THE I-95/COASTAL CORRIDOR THIS
WEEKEND.
A CLASSIC EARLY-SUMMER PATTERN WILL REMAIN ESTABLISHED ACROSS
SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AS MID-LVL HEIGHTS GRADUALLY RISE BENEATH A STRENGTHENING WESTERN
ATLANTIC RIDGE. THIS PATTERN WILL YIELD SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW,
ALLOWING FOR A GOOD AMOUNT OF TROPICAL MOISTURE TO ADVECT INTO THE
REGION. THE MOST RECENT ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE INDICATES INCREASED
PROBABILITIES FOR HEAT INDICES EXCEEDING 100F ACROSS THE I-95/COASTAL
CORRIDOR THIS WEEKEND.
FRIDAY: THE REGION WILL REMAIN ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
ATLANTIC RIDGE WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S
AWAY FROM THE BEACHES. EXPECT DEWPOINTS TO REMAIN IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S OWING TO CONTINUED MARITIME MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE
ATLANTIC AND THE GULF. THIS WILL YIELD AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES
BETWEEN 100F AND 108F, WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES ACROSS THE
I-95/COASTAL CORRIDOR. THESE VALUES WILL LIKELY APPROACH AND/OR
MEET HEAT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS (I.E. VALUES BETWEEN 108F TO 112F
FOR AT LEAST 2 HOURS). WHILE SCATTERED SEABREEZE-DRIVEN CONVECTION
IS EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON, STORM COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN
INSUFFICIENT TO PROVIDE WIDESPREAD RELIEF FROM THE HEAT. IF ANY
CONVECTION DEVELOPS, IT WILL BE CAPABLE OF BRIEFLY LOWERING THE
TEMPERATURES, HOWEVER IT WILL ALSO REINFORCE THE ALREADY VERY
HUMID ENVIRONMENT.
SATURDAY: THE HOTTEST CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AS THE
RIDGE BRIEFLY STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S AWAY FROM THE
BEACHES. THIS COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S SHOULD
FAVOR AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES BETWEEN 104F TO 110F (HIGHEST
ACROSS THE I-95/COASTAL CORRIDOR). AGAIN, THESE VALUES WILL LIKELY
APPROACH AND/OR MEET HEAT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS AND THE SCATTERED
SEABREEZE-DRIVEN CONVECTION WILL LIKELY NOT PROVIDE WIDESPREAD
RELIEF FROM THE HEAT.
SUNDAY: ATTENTION TURNS TOWARDS AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT ADVANCING
SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE APPALACHIANS AND TENNESSEE VALLEY ON SUNDAY.
ALTHOUGH IT'LL REMAIN WARM AND HUMID OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT,
INCREASING CLOUD COVER COMBINED WITH HIGHER PROBABILITIES OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING COMPARED TO
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL STILL YIELD HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE
100F TO 107F RANGE BEFORE CONVECTION DEVELOPS, BUT WIDESPREAD VALUES
ABOVE 108F APPEAR LESS LIKELY.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
00Z TAFS - VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD, THOUGH
THERE IS ISOLATED POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS IF ANY
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POP UP THURSDAY AFTERNOON. PROBABILITIES FOR
ANY SUCH ACTIVITY REMAIN BELOW 30%, AND HAVE THUS NOT BEEN INCLUDED
IN THIS SET OF TAFS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
AT CHS/JZI/SAV TERMINALS. HOWEVER, BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
ARE POSSIBLE WITH AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
MARINE
PREVAILING S TO SW WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
GRADIENT COULD BE SLIGHTLY ENHANCED DUE TO A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. SUSTAINED WINDS COULD BE 15-20
KT AT TIMES. A SLIGHT SEA BREEZE ENHANCEMENT WILL OCCUR ALONG
THE COAST EACH AFTERNOON.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
APT/DENNIS/JRL
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