826
FXUS62 KCHS 170108
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
908 PM EDT TUE JUN 16 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
KEY MESSAGES HAVE BEEN UPDATED TO ACCOUNT FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING
THIS EVENING. THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THE 00Z TAF
ISSUANCE
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) MINOR COASTAL FLOODING POSSIBLE ALONG CHARLESTON AND COLLETON
COUNTY COASTS DURING THE LATE EVENING HIGH TIDE.
- 2) PERIODIC SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THIS WEEK WITHIN A PERSISTENT SUMMERTIME PATTERN.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: MINOR COASTAL FLOODING POSSIBLE ALONG CHARLESTON AND
COLLETON COUNTY COASTS DURING THE LATE EVENING HIGH TIDE.
DESPITE A WESTERLY WIND ACROSS THE AREA, THE RECENT LUNAR PERIGEE
(JUNE 14TH) AND NEW MOON (JUNE 15TH) CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ELEVATED
TIDAL DEPARTURES AROUND 1/2 FT IN THE CHARLESTON HARBOR EARLY
THIS EVENING. THESE DEPARTURES ALONG WITH LIGHT RAINS IN THE
VICINITY SHOULD SUPPORT MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ISSUES ALONG THE
CHARLESTON AND COLLETON COUNTY COASTS DURING THE EVENING HIGH
TIDE (~10:09 PM). THE LATEST TWL FORECAST CALLS FOR 7.0 - 7.2 FT
MLLW IN THE CHARLESTON HARBOR AROUND HIGH TIDE, AND THEREFORE A
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR CHARLESTON AND COASTAL
COLLETON COUNTIES THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 2: PERIODIC SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THIS WEEK WITHIN A PERSISTENT SUMMERTIME PATTERN.
THROUGH TONIGHT: ALOFT, THE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE
BROADLY CYCLONIC FLOW WITH SUBTLE SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSING
THROUGH AT TIMES. AT THE SURFACE, ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT A WEAK
BOUNDARY STILL SITS INLAND ACROSS CENTRAL GA AND THE SC
MIDLANDS. THERE IS PLENTY OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION, WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RANGING FROM AROUND 1.75 INCHES ACROSS
NORTHERN BERKELEY COUNTY TO 2+ INCHES ALONG THE ALTAMAHA.
PLENTIFUL CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE AREA
WITHIN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW, AND THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW
NORMAL. IN FACT, SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GA/SC
MIGHT NOT REACH 80. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SOME PARTIAL CLEARING
AND WARMING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S WILL BE SOUTH OF I-16 AND
ALONG THE GA COAST.
THIS CLOUD COVER AND RESULTING TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO WORK TO
KEEP INSTABILITY FROM REACHING TYPICAL SUMMERTIME LEVELS. IN
FACT, MLCAPE VALUES WILL LIKELY ONLY GET UP TO 1,000 J/KG IN THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS SOUTH OF I-16 WHERE THE BEST SURFACE
HEATING WILL BE. SO WHILE WE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO SEE SHOWERS
AND AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE, THE ONLY REAL
THUNDERSTORM RISK IS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER. THERE IS SOME
30-40 KNOT MID-LEVEL FLOW NOTED IN MODEL SOUNDINGS, YIELDING
AROUND 30 KNOTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR. THIS COMBINATION OF
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER COULD PRODUCE A
LOW END SEVERE THREAT FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
THEREFORE IT FOLLOWS THAT THIS AREA REMAINS WITHIN SPC'S DAY 1
SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK MARGINAL RISK AREA, PRIMARILY FOR
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING AND POSSIBLY EVEN INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS.
WEDNESDAY - FRIDAY: A LINGERING SHORTWAVE WILL RESULT IN
CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WEDNESDAY MORNING AND
AFTERNOON, WITH A LULL IN ACTIVITY LIKELY HEADING INTO THE LATE
AFTERNOON. OVERALL SEVERE THREAT LOOKS TO REMAIN LOW, SO OUTSIDE
OF A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER, EXPECT BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING TO BE THE PRIMARY IMPACTS. IN REGARD TO
TEMPERATURES, HAVE AFTERNOON HIGHS REMAINING NEAR/SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL (MID TO UPPER 80S) UNDER CLOUDY SKIES.
SHOULD SEE LARGELY DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING, BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION BEGINS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. AS NOTED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION, WILL
SEE A DECENT SURGE OF GULF MOISTURE SURGE OVERHEAD THE REGION
DURING THIS TIME, WHICH WILL RESULT IN NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY. WHILE THE SEVERE
THREAT REMAINS FAIRLY MEAGER, CAN'T RULE OUT SEEING AN ISOLATED
STORM OR TWO BECOMING STRONG TO SEVERE ON FRIDAY AS INSTABILITY
INCREASES AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT.
SATURDAY - SUNDAY: TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN WILL PERSIST INTO
THE WEEKEND, WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS
AND STORMS. THAT BEING SAID, DO WANT TO POINT OUT THAT COVERAGE
SHOULD BE MUCH LESS THAN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. OTHERWISE, LOOK
FOR HIGHS TO GRADUALLY WARM BACK INTO THE LOWER 90S BY SUNDAY.
AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN/SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT CHS/JZI/SAV
TERMINALS THIS EVENING AND POSSIBLY THROUGH THE BULK OF OVERNIGHT
HOURS. ALTHOUGH PRECIP ACTIVITY IS MORE QUESTIONABLE BETWEEN THE 06-
15Z WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME, THE RISK FOR PREVAILING MVFR CIGS IS
HIGHEST DURING THIS PERIOD AND REMAINS AT ALL TERMINALS. CONDITIONS
SHOULD SLOWLY IMPROVE TO VFR LATE MORNING WEDNESDAY, BUT TEMPO
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND/OR
THUNDERSTORMS DURING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS.
OVERALL CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE PREVAILING OR TEMPO
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS FOR PRECIP ACTIVITY AT CHS/JZI TERMINALS. THE
RISK FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS GREATEST AT SAV, WHICH
NOW INCLUDES PREVAILING VCSH BETWEEN 15-24Z WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH A
PROB30 GROUP FOR MVFR CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORMS
BETWEEN 18-24Z WEDNESDAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD LARGELY PREVAIL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE WITH ANY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT: WEST-SOUTHWEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO
ENHANCE A BIT THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WIND SPEEDS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE INTO THE 15-20 KNOT RANGE, WITH SOME
POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS UP TO AROUND 25 KNOTS AT TIMES ACROSS THE SC
WATERS AND MAYBE THE OUTER GA WATERS. SEAS WILL RISE IN
RESPONSE TO THE STRONGER WINDS, BECOMING 3-4 FEET OVERNIGHT WITH
POTENTIAL FOR UP TO 5 FEET IN THE SC WATERS. CURRENT THINKING
IS THAT OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.
WEDNESDAY ONWARD: BREEZY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS LOOK TO PREVAIL
ACROSS OUR WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF
OVER THE WEEKEND. AS NOTED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION, THE NEXT
BEST CHANCE FOR NEEDED ANY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE FRIDAY
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING FRONT.
GUSTS BETWEEN 25 TO 35 KTS AND SEAS BETWEEN 4 TO 8 FT WILL
BECOME COMMON DURING THIS TIME.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
JUNE 18
KCHS: 78/2015
KCXM: 81/1998
JUNE 19
KCHS: 79/2025
KCXM: 81/2025
KSAV: 79/1881
JUNE 22:
KCHS: 79/2018
KSAV: 78/1937
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DPB/SST
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