513
FXUS62 KCHS 131835
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
235 PM EDT WED MAY 13 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ALL SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION ON THURSDAY
USHERING DRY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR AND/OR ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION ON
THURSDAY USHERING DRY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR AND/OR ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SATELLITE WATER VAPOR INDICATED A THIN VORT MAX SLIDING EAST OF THE
FALL LINE, OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN OF GA/SC. THIS FEATURE WAS AIDING
IN MAINTAINING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. IN ADDITION, A SEA BREEZE PUSHING INLAND WAS TRIGGERING
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. THIS FEATURE SHOULD PUSH OVER
ATLANTIC THIS EVENING, ENDING THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE CWA.
NEAR TERM GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT A DRY COLD FRONT WILL BRISKLY
SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION AROUND DAWN THURSDAY MORNING. GIVEN SUNNY
CONDITIONS AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN WARMER TEMPERATURES
ON THURSDAY COMPARED TO TODAY. USING A BLEND OF MOS, HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE MID 80S ALONG THE COAST
TO AROUND 80 INLAND. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT MIXING HEIGHTS
WILL PEAK BETWEEN 6-7 KFT. THE DEEP MIXING SHOULD RESULT IN
DEWPOINTS TO 40S INLAND TO THE LOW 50S ALONG THE COAST. AFTER RH
VALUES MAY FALL INTO THE 20S INLAND TO THE LOW TO MID 30S ALONG THE
COAST. FORTUNATELY, NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE AROUND 10
MPH, WITH OCCASIONALLY GUSTS INTO THE TEENS.
FRIDAY, TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN NEARLY
IDENTICAL TO THURSDAY. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION,
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT, GENERALLY AROUND 5 MPH. THE WEEKEND INTO
THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK SHOULD REMAIN DRY. WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
PRIOR TO THE 18Z TAFS, KCLX DETECTED A SLOW MOVING SEA BREEZE
BETWEEN KJZI AND KCHS, DRIFTING INLAND. ALONG THE SEA BREEZE,
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION, PATCHES OF MVFR CEILINGS MAY REMAIN NEAR
THE SEA BREEZE THROUGH MID AFTERNOON, HIGHLIGHTED IN THE KJZI
TAF. WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT THIS EVENING ALONG WITH CLEARING
SKY. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN A WIND SHIFT FROM THE
NORTHWEST DURING THE EARLY DAYLIGHT HOURS THURSDAY MORNING.
NORTHWEST WINDS WITH SUNNY CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN THROUGH THE
REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: VFR.
MARINE
A DRY COLD FRONT IS TIMED TO PUSH ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS
THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION ON
THURSDAY, WITH THE HIGH CENTER ARRIVING OVER THE WATERS ON FRIDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. CONDITIONS
SHOULD FEATURE WINDS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS WITH WAVE
HEIGHTS BETWEEN 2 TO 4 FT.
RIP CURRENTS: THURSDAY: THERE WILL REMAIN A 2-3 FT SWELL AT 7 TO 8
SECONDS PERIODS AT OUR BEACHES. INTERNAL CALCULATIONS POINT TO A LOW
RISK AT ALL OF OUR BEACHES. HOWEVER, RCMOS POINTS TO A BORDERLINE
LOW/MODERATE RISK ALONG OUR SC BEACHES AND A MODERATE RISK ALONG OUR
GA BEACHES DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. SINCE TYBEE, GA IS PRONE TO
RIP CURRENTS, WE UPPED THE RISK TO MODERATE FOR OUR GA BEACHES, BUT
LEFT THE RISK LOW FOR OUR SC BEACHES. ON FRIDAY, BREAKER HEIGHTS MAY
DECREASE BY A FOOT, BUT TIDAL RANGES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE. RIP
RISK WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE A LOW RISK FOR SC BEACHES AND A
MODERATE RISK FOR THE GA BEACHES.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
NED
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