722
FXUS62 KCHS 282312
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
712 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ALL SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
TONIGHT: AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION HAS STEADILY DRIFTED
EITHER OFFSHORE OR FURTHER INLAND WITH TIME AND WE ARE NOW
MOSTLY LEFT WITH AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
THROUGH THE NIGHT THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN IN ADVANCE OF AN
UPSTREAM FRONT AND WITHIN AN AIRMASS WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES AROUND 2.25 INCHES. THEREFORE THERE COULD BE SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE AT ANY TIME. LATE
TONIGHT AND SUNRISE SATURDAY, THERE ARE SOME HINTS IN HI-RES
MODEL GUIDANCE THAT CONVERGENCE AND INSTABILITY WILL POOL ALONG
THE SC COAST AND POTENTIALLY LEAD TO A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE HIGHLIGHTED AREA IS MAINLY FROM AROUND
BEAUFORT UP THROUGH CHARLESTON COUNTY. CONFIDENCE ISN'T
PARTICULARLY HIGH BUT IF IT WERE TO OCCUR, THERE IS THE THREAT
FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN GIVEN THE DEGREE OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE
AND THE PRESENCE OF CONVECTION.
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN DRAPED OVER THE SOUTHEAST
SATURDAY BEFORE DISSIPATING SUNDAY. WEAK SHORTWAVES ALOFT MAY
CONTINUE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY MORNING.
WHILE THERE WILL LIKELY BE A BREAK FROM THE RAIN DURING THE MID-
MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS, ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
SEA BREEZE PUSHES ASHORE. DEEP CONVECTION LOOKS LIMITED WITH
1000-1500 J/KG OF SBCAPE ANTICIPATED. ALSO THE LACK OF FLOW
ALOFT WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORMS FROM BECOMING ORGANIZED,
MAINTAINING A VERY LOW RISK FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER,
GIVEN THE SLOW STORM MOTIONS AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN
EXCESS OF 2 INCHES, LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS A CONCERN.
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY FOR LOW-LYING AND FLOOD-PRONE
AREAS. HREF HAS SCATTERED 50-70% CHANCES FOR 2+ INCHES ALONG AND
WEST OF I-95, DECREASING INTO THE 20-40% PROBABILITY RANGE FOR
3+ INCHES. A FEW ISOLATED LOCATIONS COULD SEE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
GREATER THAN 3 INCHES, WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES MAINLY ALONG
THE COAST. FLOOD ADVISORIES AND/OR FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS COULD BE
NEEDED SATURDAY.
A SIMILAR SET-UP AND ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED SUNDAY. WITH THE
NEARBY FRONT EXPECTED TO DISSOLVE AT SOME POINT DURING THE DAY,
WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE AS MUCH RAINFALL COVERAGE AS THE PREVIOUS
DAYS'. HOWEVER, PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL STILL BE
ELEVATED, WHICH COULD LEAD TO LINGERING HEAVY RAINFALL/FLOODING
CONCERNS.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THE 00Z TAF PERIOD BEGINS WITH AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AROUND THE
AREA WITH MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS. CURRENT RADAR SUGGESTS THAT
THERE WILL BE LITTLE TO NO THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. HOWEVER, LATE TONIGHT, THERE ARE HINTS IN MODEL
GUIDANCE THAT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL INCREASE
ALONG THE SC COAST. THIS COULD POTENTIALLY IMPACT KCHS AND KJZI
MOST LIKELY, AND WE HAVE MAINTAINED A PROB30 FROM 09-13Z. THEN
FOR THE AFTERNOON, THE THINKING IS THAT THE BEST THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE WILL BE AROUND KSAV. THERE ARE ALSO HINTS IN MODEL
GUIDANCE THAT MVFR (OR LOWER) STRATUS COULD DEVELOP AND IMPACT
THE TERMINALS. THIS WOULD MAINLY BE AN ISSUE STARTING AROUND
08-10Z, POTENTIALLY EXTENDING AS LATE AS MIDDAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD
BRING PERIODIC FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOONS.
MARINE
TONIGHT: THE LOCAL WEATHER PATTERN WILL GENERALLY SUPPORT
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS SHOULD BE IN THE 2-3 FT
RANGE. ADDITIONALLY, THUNDERSTORMS COULD BRING BRIEF GUSTY WINDS
ALONG WITH CLOUD-TO-WATER LIGHTNING.
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: NO LARGE-SCALE MARINE CONCERNS,
WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH AT
LEAST THE WEEKEND. WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH THE PERIOD.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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