631
FXUS62 KCHS 061806
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
106 PM EST SAT DEC 6 2025
SYNOPSIS
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK, THEN COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN. A REINFORCING
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
THROUGH SUNSET: WIDESPREAD STRATIFORM PRECIPITIATION WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPACT OUR ENTIRE AREA.
TONIGHT: THE MID-LEVELS WILL CONSIST OF WSW FLOW OVERHEAD. THE
UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK LOCATED TO OUR NORTHEAST WILL MOVE AWAY.
AT THE SURFACE, A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN SITUATED WELL TO
OUR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED WELL TO
OUR NORTH. MODELS HAVE THE RAINFALL ENDING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
THIS EVENING. THOUGH, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD
PERSIST OVER MCINTOSH COUNTY AND ITS VICINITY THROUGH THE NIGHT.
MOST AREAS SHOULD RECEIVE VERY LITTLE QPF TONIGHT, EXCEPT
MCINTOSH COUNTY AND ITS VICINITY, WHICH SHOULD GET LESS THAN
0.25". THE COMBINATION OF STRATUS BUILDING DOWN, LOTS OF LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE, AND CALM WINDS SHOULD LEAD TO FOG FORMATION,
ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. DENSE FOG ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED.
OTHERWISE, LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S FAR
INLAND, TO THE MID TO UPPER 40S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
A BROAD UPPER-LVL TROUGH WITH REINFORCING SHORTWAVES WILL
CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE FORECAST PATTERN. AT THE SURFACE, A
FRONT SHALL RESIDE OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN FLORIDA AND EXTEND
INTO THE ATLANTIC ADJACENT TO THE SOUTH CAROLINA COASTLINE. THIS
PATTERN WILL YIELD NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH PWAT VALUES
RANGING BETWEEN 0.8 TO 1.0". ALSO, THIS WILL ALLOW DEEP-LAYER
ONSHORE FLOW TO ENHANCE LOW-LVL MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ON
SUNDAY. EXPECT LIGHT TO MODERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.
RECENT QPF GUIDANCE INDICATES LESS THAN 0.10 INCHES WITH
LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS (0.25 TO 0.50 INCHES) ACROSS SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA WHERE SHOWERS COULD TRAIN AND/OR LINGER. MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE A SATURATED PROFILE BELOW ~750-800 MB WITH A SHALLOW
ISOTHERMAL LAYER, INDICATING A POSSIBLE PERSISTENT OF LOW
STRATUS THROUGHOUT SUNDAY. WITH LIMITED MID-LVL LAPSE RATES AND
NO APPRECIABLE CAPE, CONVECTION REMAINS NEGLIGIBLE. ONSHORE FLOW
AND CLOUD COVER WILL MITIGATE STRONG RADIATIONAL HEATING AND
HIGHS WILL LIKELY ONLY REACH INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S. AS THE
UPPER-LVL TROUGH GRADUALLY SHEARS EASTWARD, ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
WILL PASS OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL YIELD LIGHT
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVERNIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THESE
SHOWERS WILL LIKELY TAPER OFF BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON ON MONDAY
WITH RAINFALL TOTALS LESS THAN 0.10 INCHES. EXPECT A DRY, COLD
FRONT TO PUSH ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY EVENING/NIGHT, AND
THEN HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND IT. THIS WILL
RESULT IN QUIET WEATHER ON TUESDAY WITH SKIES GRADUALLY
CLEARING THROUGHOUT THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY
BELOW AVERAGE WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S (WITH SOME SPOTS
OF UPPER 50S IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA). IT COULD BECOME QUITE COLD
ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING DOWN INTO
THE UPPER 20S INLAND AND THEN LOW TO MID 30S CLOSER TO THE
COASTLINE.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS MID-LVL RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHEAST, STRONG
SUBSIDENCE WILL PROMOTE A QUIET AND RAIN-FREE FORECAST ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ALSO, INCREASING WAA WILL SUPPORT A
NOTICEABLE WARM-UP MID-WEEK AS TEMPERATURES REACH INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 60S. HOWEVER, THIS PATTERN ONLY LASTS MOMENTARILY, AS A
REINFORCING COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY.
EXPECT INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT. THERE'S
MODERATE UNCERTAINTY PERTAINING TO THIS WEEKEND AS ENSEMBLE
SPREAD REMAINS LARGE. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY RETURN
THIS WEEKEND FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
18Z TAFS: A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BRING IMPACTS TO ALL OF THE
TAF SITES. RAIN, LOW CEILINGS, AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES WILL
CAUSE IFR THIS AFTERNOON. RAINFALL WILL COME TO AN END FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH THIS EVENING, BUT IFR CEILINGS WILL REMAIN,
ALONG WITH THE INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR FOG. KCHS AND KJZI
SHOULD IMPROVE TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF TIME PERIOD, BUT KSAV
SHOULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS LATE.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: A RELATIVELY PROLONGED PERIOD OF
MVFR WITH OCCASIONAL IFR CEILINGS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY PRODUCE LOW CEILINGS AND REDUCED
VSBYS. EXPECT IMPROVING CONIDITONS LATE MONDAY NIGHT.
MARINE
THROUGH SUNSET: NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
TONIGHT: A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED WELL TO THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST OF THE COASTAL WATERS WILL SUPPORT LIGHT NW WINDS THIS
EVENING, VEERING TO THE NE BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY. SEAS SHOULD
AVERAGE 2-3 FEET. SHOWERS AND VERY LOW CLOUDS COULD PRODUCE SOME
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS AT TIMES.
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: A PROLONGED PERIOD OF NORTH-
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW, DRIVEN BY A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES PASSING
ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS, WILL DOMINATE THROUGH MID-WEEK. EXPECT
WIND SPEEDS TO REMAIN RATHER LIGHT WITH 5 TO 10 KTS ON SUNDAY,
AND THEN INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KTS WITH GUSTS NEAR 25 KTS ON
MONDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT APPROACHES. THEREAFTER,
WINDS WILL TAPER BACK AND REMAIN LIGHT ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
SEAS WILL RANGE 2 TO 3 FT ON SUNDAY, AND THEN BUILD MODESTLY TO
3 TO 5 FT WITH SOME 6 FOOTERS TAPPING INTO THE THE NEARSHORE
CHARLESTON AND OUTER GEORGIA WATERS ON MONDAY EVENING INTO
TUESDAY. THEREFORE, SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
ON MONDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY. AFTERWARDS, THE SWELL LOOKS TO
EASE BACK AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE ATLANTIC WATERS ON
WEDNESDAY AND CONDITIONS RAPIDLY IMPROVE.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED SUNDAY BUT WILL BE ON A
DECLINING TREND. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES COULD BE NEEDED FOR
THE SUNDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE CYCLE, BUT THE CURRENT FORECAST IS
FOR CHARLESTON TO FALL JUST SHY OF THE MINOR COASTAL FLOOD
THRESHOLD.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
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