161
FXUS62 KCHS 141136
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
636 AM EST SAT FEB 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT THE 12Z TAFS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ISSUED FOR THE OUTER GA WATERS FROM 1 PM
SUNDAY UNTIL 1 PM MONDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) AN IMPACTFUL SYSTEM ARRIVES ON SUNDAY, RESULTING IN RENEWED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: AN IMPACTFUL SYSTEM ARRIVES ON SUNDAY, RESULTING IN
RENEWED PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY, GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEPICT AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CONUS, WITH ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST TOWARDS THE AREA. A SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE IS ACCOMPANYING THE SHORTWAVE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST.
AS THESE FEATURES SHIFT EASTWARDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY, SOUTHEAST
SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA REMAIN IN THE DEVELOPING WARM
SECTOR, WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISING THROUGHOUT THE MORNING
HOURS. AS UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION RISES FROM THE PLETHORA OF FORCING
MECHANISMS, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
EXPANDING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THROUGHOUT THE MORNING AND INTO
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WHILE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES LOOK TO RISE TO
ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE OF CLIMATOLOGY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR NEAR
1.25", PER THE ENSEMBLE SITUATIONAL AWARENESS TABLES, RAINFALL
TOTALS LOOK TO REMAIN IN THE 0.5-1 INCH RANGE BEFORE RAIN ENDS
MONDAY MORNING. GLOBAL PHYSICAL AND AI ENSEMBLES HAVE TRENDED DOWN
THE PROBABILITIES FOR AN INCH, WITH MOST KEEPING CHANCES BELOW 10%,
WHILE THE TIME-LAGGED NBM 5.0 KEEPS PROBABILITIES FOR AN INCH IN THE
20-40% RANGE, WHICH TO BE FAIR DOES HAVE SOME SUPPORT FROM A FEW OF
THE CAMS THAT GO OUT THAT FAR.
WHILE WE'LL SEE A COUPLE HUNDRED JOULES OF CAPE BUILD IN DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS, ENOUGH TO RESULT IN SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS,
THE CHANCES FOR STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO REMAIN OFF TO
OUR SOUTH WHERE THE SHEAR AND INSTABILITY ARE BOTH GREATER. ASIDE
FROM RAINFALL CHANCES, TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE WARMER SIDE
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S AND AFTERNOON HIGHS
IN THE 60S AND 70S. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE ON THE BREEZIER SIDE ON
SUNDAY, SUSTAINED IN THE TEENS WITH GUSTS INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO
LOWER 20S, BECOMING BREEZY OUT OF THE NORTH-NORTHEAST ON MONDAY.
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR WILL PREVAIL AT KCHS/KJZI/KSAV THROUGH THE 12Z TAF PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: THE POTENTIAL FOR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
WILL INCREASE SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES INTO THE REGION.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE MARINE ZONES TODAY, THEN
GRADUALLY FADING TONIGHT. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST ON SUNDAY, RESULTING IN A PINCHED GRADIENT BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. WINDS GUSTS ARE FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN TO AROUND 25 KTS
ACROSS THE OUTER GA WATERS, WITH WAVE HEIGHTS BUILDING TO 6 TO 8 FT
SUNDAY EVENING. A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP
ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME STORM SEGMENTS WILL REQUIRE SPECIAL MARINE
WARNINGS DUE TO GUSTY WINDS.
THE NBM PROBABILITY OF WIND GUSTS >25 KTS OUTSIDE THE OUTER GA
WATERS IS 20% OR LESS LATE SUNDAY. CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MARINE
ZONES SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE AS THE LOW DEPARTS ON MONDAY. THE
GUSTY WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED WITH A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY ACROSS THE OUTER GA WATERS FROM 1 PM SUNDAY
UNTIL 1 PM MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION
LATE MONDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH MID- WEEK.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR
AMZ374.
APT/NED
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