094
FXUS62 KCHS 151108
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
708 AM EDT FRI MAY 15 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE AVIATION SECTION WAS UPDATED TO REFLECT THE 12Z TAF
ISSUANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
- 2) MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTH CAROLINA COAST WITH EVENING HIGH TIDES THROUGH TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY, YIELDING
CLEAR SKIES AND HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. DEW
POINTS TODAY ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE 40S, RESULTING IN RH
VALUES AS LOW AS 25% ACROSS FAR INLAND LOCATIONS AND CLOSER TO 35%
ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES. EVEN THOUGH RH VALUES WILL BE AT OR
CLOSE TO CRITICAL VALUES WIND SPEEDS ARE ONLY FORECAST TO TOP OUT
AROUND 10 MPH. THEREFORE, NO FIRE WEATHER PRODUCTS WILL BE ISSUED AT
THIS TIME.
QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES
WILL TREND ON THE WARMER SIDE OF NORMAL, WITH HIGHS AVERAGING IN THE
85-90F RANGE AWAY FROM THE BEACHES MOST DAYS. UNFORTUNATELY, THIS
PATTERN WILL RESULT IN NO RELIEF TO THE EXTREME TO EXCEPTIONAL
DROUGHT OVER SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.
THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION TOWARD THE MIDDLE AND
LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK AS MODELS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR DEEPER
MOISTURE AND FORCING WITH UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES.
KEY MESSAGE 2: MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ALONG
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST WITH EVENING HIGH TIDES
THROUGH TUESDAY.
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL BE RISING DUE TO THE UPCOMING NEW MOON
ON SATURDAY, WITH THE CHARLESTON ASTRONOMICAL TIDE EXPECTED TO
PEAK JUST ABOVE 6.7 FT MLLW WITH THE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING
HIGH TIDES. THEREFORE, EVEN SMALL POSITIVE ANOMALIES COULD LEAD
TO MINOR COASTAL FLOODING FOR CHARLESTON AND COASTAL COLLETON
COUNTIES BOTH OF THOSE EVENINGS. THE HIGH TIDE THIS EVENING IS
FORECAST TO REACH 7.1 FT MLLW AND A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS
LIKELY FOR CHARLESTON AND COASTAL COLLETON COUNTIES. OVERALL,
EACH HIGH TIDE THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED FOR POTENTIAL FLOODING.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KCHS, KJZI, AND KSAV THROUGH THE
12Z TAF PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: VFR.
MARINE
A BRIEF NE WIND SURGE WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING FOLLOWING A
REINFORCING DRY COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH FROM THE NORTH.
WIND GUSTS THIS MORNING ARE SHOWING 25 TO 30 KNOTS ACROSS THE
NEARSHORE WATERS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
NEARSHORE WATERS, VALID THROUGH 10 AM THIS MORNING. THEREAFTER
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH INTO THE AFTERNOON.
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: NO MARINE CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED. WINDS
WILL AVERAGE 15 KNOTS OR LESS WITH SEAS 2-4 FEET.
RIP CURRENTS: SLIGHTLY INCREASING TIDAL RANGES WITH THE UPCOMING NEW
MOON PLUS MODEST ONSHORE SWELL WILL RESULT IN MODERATE RISK FRIDAY
FOR GA COAST AND MODERATE RISK FOR ALL SC/GA BEACHES ON
SATURDAY.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR AMZ360-
362-364.
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