780
FXUS62 KCHS 020642
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
242 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ALL SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT ROUND OF
INCREASED HUMIDITY AND ELEVATED HEAT INDICES WILL COME THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, AND HEAT ADVISORIES COULD BE
NEEDED.
- 2) SUMMERTIME CONVECTION RETURNS ON SUNDAY, WITH CHANCES
INCREASING FURTHER INTO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT
ROUND OF INCREASED HUMIDITY AND ELEVATED HEAT INDICES WILL COME
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, AND HEAT ADVISORIES COULD BE
NEEDED.
ABNORMALLY STRONG RIDGING ALOFT WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT
SYNOPTIC FEATURE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE
PRIMARY FEATURE, FIRST TO THE NORTH ON THURSDAY THEN TAKING ON A
MORE TYPICAL SUBTROPICAL POSITIONING AS WE MOVE INTO THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE OVERALL RESULT OF THIS
SETUP WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE FULL
FORECAST PERIOD. THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WHEN WIDESPREAD UPPER 90S ARE
EXPECTED. FOR TODAY, THE SETUP WILL AGAIN FAVOR BELOW NORMAL
DEWPOINTS WITH VALUES FALLING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA. FRIDAY WILL FEATURE ANOTHER ROUND OF BELOW NORMAL
DEWPOINTS AS WELL, BUT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK WE WILL SEE THE RETURN OF DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 70S,
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. THIS WILL YIELD HEAT INDEX VALUES
ONLY SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE AIR TEMPERATURES TODAY AND FRIDAY.
HOWEVER, BY SUNDAY AND THEREAFTER, THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAT
INDICES INTO THE 105-110 DEGREE RANGE WILL INCREASE. HEAT
ADVISORIES COULD BE NEEDED, ESPECIALLY FROM SUNDAY ONWARD. DAILY
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND RECORD HIGH MINIMUMS COULD BE IN
PLAY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AND THAT INFO IS DETAILED IN
THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW.
KEY MESSAGE 2: SUMMERTIME CONVECTION RETURNS ON SUNDAY, WITH
CHANCES INCREASING FURTHER INTO NEXT WEEK.
STRONG RIDGING WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S. FRIDAY
MORNING. AT THE SAME TIME, THERE SHOULD BE A BROAD, ROUGHLY 595
DAM 500 MB HIGH LOCATED TO OUR NORTH. THIS HIGH SHOULD REMAIN
IN PLACE AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN LATE FRIDAY INTO THE 4TH. LOWER
HEIGHTS WITH POTENTIALLY WEAK TROUGHING WILL FORM OVER THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. SUNDAY AND CONTINUE LATER INTO NEXT WEEK. SURFACE
TROUGHING WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. FRIDAY,
CONTINUING THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND, AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
THIS PATTERN WILL GRADUALLY USHER MORE MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION,
WITH PWATS PEAKING ~1.5" ON FRIDAY, THEN GRADUALLY INCREASING
CLOSER TO 2" ON SUNDAY. THE SYNOPTIC MODELS AND THE NBM CONTINUE
TO KEEP FRIDAY DRY, WHICH IS REFLECTED IN THE FORECAST. BUT
THEY ALSO TRENDED DRIER ON THE 4TH, WHICH IS BIT OF A CHANGE
FROM THE PREVIOUS RUNS. WE HESITANTLY FOLLOWED THIS FORECAST
ROUTE. BUT WE ALSO MUST STRESS THAT LOW POPS ON THE 4TH DON'T
MEAN ZERO CONVECTION. A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM COULD
BRIEFLY DEVELOP AND BRING SOME IMPACTS. REGARDLESS, THE 4TH IS
LOOKING DRY FOR A MAJORITY OF OUR AREA.
CONVECTION IS MORE LIKELY TO RETURN ON SUNDAY. THAT'S WHEN
AFTERNOON POPS ARE LIMITED TO A SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR OUR SC
COUNTIES, OUR GA COUNTIES CHANCE POPS. POPS ARE EVEN HIGHER FOR
OUR ENTIRE AREA MONDAY ONWARD, SIGNALING MORE CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. THE MOST LIKELY IMPACTS WILL BE EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE CONVECTIVE SETUP WILL VARY EACH DAY,
DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WE GET FROM THE ABOVE NORMAL
HIGH TEMPERATURES, THE OVERALL DCAPE VALUES, AND THE INLAND
MOVEMENT OF THE SEA BREEZE. HOWEVER, DUE TO LOW OR MINIMAL
SHEAR, ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED, WITH MOSTLY COLD-
POOL DRIVEN STORMS. REGARDLESS, STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY, WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING
DAMAGING WINDS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED.
CONVECTION IS THEN EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE EACH EVENING.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KCHS, KJZI, AND KSAV THROUGH 06Z
FRIDAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BRING
BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS SUNDAY AND MONDAY, WITH IMPACTS MOST
LIKELY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MARINE
TODAY AND TONIGHT: MODEST NORTHEAST FLOW MOSTLY IN THE 10-15
KNOT RANGE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY. WINDS WILL TURN MORE EASTERLY AND THEN SOUTHEASTERLY
THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. OVERNIGHT, WIND
SPEEDS WILL STEADILY DIMINISH TO BE 5 KNOTS OR LESS. SEAS WILL
MOSTLY AVERAGE 2-3 FEET, BUT POTENTIALLY UP TO 4 FEET AT TIMES
IN THE OUTER GA WATERS.
EXTENDED MARINE: SURFACE TROUGHING WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. FRIDAY, CONTINUING THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND,
AND INTO NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST IN THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. ONSHORE WINDS FRIDAY AFTERNOON, WILL CLOCK
AROUND TO THE SE BY FRIDAY EVENING, FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO THE SW
EARLY ON THE 4TH. WINDS WILL THEN HAVE A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
PATTERN FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
CONSIST OF SOME BACKING DURING THE DAY, WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS
ALONG THE LAND/SEA INTERFACE WITH THE FORMATION OF THE SEA
BREEZE. GUSTS COULD APPROACH 20 KT, INCLUDING ACROSS CHARLESTON
HARBOR, AS THE SEA BREEZE MOVES THROUGH LATER ON THE 4TH, AND
20-25 KT LATER SUNDAY AND MONDAY. EACH NIGHT, EXPECT WINDS TO
VEER. SEAS SHOULD STAY 4 FT OR LESS. NO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
ARE EXPECTED.
RIP CURRENTS: THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY ONSHORE WINDS, ALONG
WITH A 2 FT SWELL AT 8 OR 9 SECONDS WILL GENERATE A MODERATE
RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT OUR GA BEACHES TODAY.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
JULY 3:
KCHS: 98/2019
JULY 4:
KCHS: 98/2023
KSAV: 99/1997
JULY 6:
KCHS: 100/1990
JULY 7:
KCHS: 99/1954
KSAV: 101/1977
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
JULY 5:
KCHS: 78/2017
KCXM: 82/2016
KSAV: 78/2016
JULY 6:
KCHS: 79/1990
KCXM: 82/2024
KSAV: 78/2024
JULY 7:
KCHS: 80/2017
KCXM: 82/2022
KSAV: 80/1883
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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