610
FXUS62 KCHS 251830
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
230 PM EDT TUE AUG 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ALL SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING.
- 2) UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND, WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING.
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STEADILY INCREASE THIS (TUESDAY)
EVENING, WHILE A STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS DRAPED OVER THE
SOUTHEAST. BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS LOOKS TO BE ACROSS GEORGIA
AND THE SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA COAST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. HOWEVER, SOME REMNANT DRIER AIR IN
SUBSIDENCE COULD AIDE TO KEEP STORMS MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CLOSER TO CHARLESTON AND THE TRI-COUNTY AREA. MLCAPE VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO CLIMB TO AROUND 2000-2500 J/KG ACROSS THE AREA WHICH
IS A TICK LOWER THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS. WITH RATHER DEEP MOIST
PROFILES, TODAY SHOULD FEEL MORE LIKE A STANDARD SUMMER
AFTERNOON AS STORMS WILL LIKELY NEED TO CLUSTER AND HAVE A FEW
BOUNDARY COLLISIONS TO BECOME STRONG/SEVERE. HOWEVER, LIKE MOST
SUMMER AFTERNOONS WE DO EXPECT AT LEAST A COUPLE CLUSTERS TO
DEVELOP AND A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT. THE GREATEST THREAT APPEARS TO BE ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA. ALSO, PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM 1.7 TO 2.0
INCHES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS, WHICH WOULD BE ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT RATHER HEAVY RAIN RATES WITHIN THE STRONGEST STORMS. IF
ANY STORMS ARE ABLE TO LINGER ACROSS THE METRO AREAS, THEN
FLOODING CONCERNS COULD ARISE.
KEY MESSAGE 2: UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND, WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN POSITIONED ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. AT THE SURFACE, A STATIONARY FRONT WILL LINGER
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST BEFORE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THIS WEEKEND.
THIS PATTERN WILL PROVIDE REPEATED SOURCES OF LIFT, WHILE ABUNDANT
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE, WITH PWAT VALUES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 2
INCHES, WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE AUGUST, WILL SUPPORT EFFICIENT
RAINFALL PRODUCTION. AS A RESULT, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE EACH DAY, WITH MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTING CONVECTION WILL BE
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS IN COVERAGE. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IN THE EXACT
LOCATION AND TIMING OF STORMS REMAINS RELATIVELY LOW.
AN ISOLATED STORM COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE, WITH DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS POSSIBLE. THE PRIMARY CONCERN, HOWEVER, WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. THE STATIONARY FRONT DRAPED OVER THE AREA COULD RESULT IN
SLOW-MOVING STORMS OR REPEATEDLY TRACK OVER THE SAME AREAS. THESE
PROCESSES CAN PRODUCE LOCALLY HIGH RAINFALL TOTALS IN A SHORT PERIOD
OF TIME, INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING OR FLASH
FLOODING, PARTICULARLY IN URBAN AND LOW-LYING AREAS.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
25/18Z TAF DISCUSSION: SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP MAINLY
ALONG THE SLOW-MOVING SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORMS DIRECTLY IMPACTING THE TERMINALS IS
HIGHEST AT KSAV, WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE AT KJZI AND KCHS. AS A
RESULT, A TEMPO GROUP WAS MAINTAINED AT KSAV. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING, WITH PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS
ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH STORMS
POTENTIALLY PRODUCING TEMPORARY FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS, REDUCED
VISIBILITY, GUSTY WINDS, AND BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL EACH
AFTERNOON.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT: EASTERLY WINDS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON WILL SHIFT
SOUTHERLY LATER THIS EVENING. WAVE HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN
BETWEEN 2 TO 3 FT.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH WINDS AVERAGING 15 KNOTS OR LESS. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE NOT EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER, ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP OVER OR MOVE
ACROSS THE WATERS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS, FREQUENT
LIGHTNING, AND/OR BRIEFLY HIGHER SEAS.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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