867
FXUS62 KCHS 170653
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
253 AM EDT FRI JUL 17 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ALL SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THIS
WEEKEND AND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. HEAT ADVISORIES COULD BE
NEEDED.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA
THIS WEEKEND AND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. HEAT ADVISORIES COULD
BE NEEDED.
TODAY: ALOFT, A RIDGE WILL BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WHILE LOW PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF. AT THE
SFC, A LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WIND WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
INTO MID-LATE MORNING BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND WEAK
TROUGHING INLAND. THIS SHOULD HELP TEMPS WARM INTO THE MID-UPPER 90S
AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COASTS WHILE SOME LOW-LVL MIXING OUT OF SFC
DEWPTS INTO THE LOWER 70S OCCURS ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH SOME DRIER
AIR DEPICTED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS. THE EXCEPTION WILL REMAIN ALONG THE
COAST, WHERE THE LIGHT SOUTHWEST WIND TURNS SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WITH A
SEA BREEZE, CAUSING A SURGE IN DEWPTS (UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80). THIS
SHOULD OCCUR 1-2 HOURS QUICKER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY, FAVORING A
LONGER PERIOD OF HIGHER DEWPTS IN SPOTS WHERE AFTERNOON HIGHS
APPROACH THE MID-UPPER 90S PRIOR TO ISOLATED/SCATTERED CONVECTION.
HEAT INDEX VALUES SHOULD APPROACH 108-110 DEGREES ACROSS CHARLESTON
AND EASTERN BERKELEY COUNTY WHERE CONVECTION IS MORE ISOLATED, WITH
A THE SURGE OF DEWPTS OCCURRING FOR SOME 3-5 HOURS DURING PEAK
HEATING HOURS. A HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR CHARLESTON AND
BERKELEY COUNTIES FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM EDT AS A RESULT.
LATE WEEKEND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK: SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PERSIST ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC, FAVORING A SOUTHWEST/SOUTH FLOW
THAT BRINGS SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPTS AND WARM AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE
MID-UPPER 90S. WIDESPREAD HEAT INDEX VALUES ABOVE 100 DEGREES ACROSS
SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA ARE LIKELY, WHILE A
SWATH OF 105-110 HEAT INDEX VALUES OCCURS FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST
OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. HEAT ADVISORIES COULD BE NEEDED EACH AFTERNOON
DURING THE WEEKEND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER,
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE COULD BECOME MORE NUMEROUS WITH AN INLAND TROUGH
NEARBY NEXT WEEK, FOLLOWED BY THE APPROACH OF A FRONT FROM THE
NORTHWEST HEADING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS COULD LIMIT
OVERALL HEATING POTENTIAL IF OCCURRING DURING PEAK HEATING HOURS
EACH DAY.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
17/06Z TAFS: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING,
ACCOMPANIED BY LIGHT SSW WINDS. LATEST INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DISPLAYS A FEW CIRRUS CLOUDS LINGERING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA, THEREFORE A FEW200 WAS NOTED AT KCHS
BETWEEN 06-09Z. OTHERWISE, KSAV AND KJZI REMAIN SKC BETWEEN 06-09Z.
THEREAFTER, SCT040 WAS ADDED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE MORNING.
IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON, HI-RES GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HINT THAT THE
SEABREEZE SHOULD DEVELOP AND PROGRESS INLAND BETWEEN 19-20Z. AS THIS
BOUNDARY PUSHES INLAND, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG WITH IT, THUS A TEMPO WAS
MENTIONED AT KCHS/KSAV AND A PROB30 AT KJZI FOR A -TSRA BETWEEN 20-
24Z. IN ADDITION TO THE CONVECTION, THE WINDS SHOULD VEER OUT OF THE
SOUTH AROUND 10 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 15 KTS AS THIS BOUNDARY PASSES
OVER EACH TERMINAL.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
PERIOD, HOWEVER THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
EACH AFTERNOON FROM SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE
SEABREEZE.
MARINE
TODAY: AS A SUBTROPICAL HIGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS,
EXPECT SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 15
KTS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY. SEAS WILL RANGE FROM
2 TO 3 FT.
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL STRENGTHEN THIS
WEEKEND AS THE LOCAL WATERS BECOME SANDWICHED BETWEEN AN INLAND
TROUGH AND THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH DEVELOPING TO THE EAST. THIS WILL
YIELD STRONG SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH WIND SPEEDS RANGING FROM
15 TO 20 KTS WITH POSSIBLE GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS (ESP. ACROSS THE SOUTH
CAROLINA WATERS + CHARLESTON HARBOR). THUS, THERE IS A CHANCE THAT
WE'LL NEED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES (SCAS) ON SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. EXPECT SEAS TO RANGE FROM 2 TO 3 FT, BEFORE
INCREASING 2 TO 4 FT IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND 4 TO 6 FT IN THE
OFFSHORE WATERS (HIGHEST ACROSS THE 20-60NM OUT FROM SOUTH SANTEE,
SC TO SAVANNAH, GA).
MONDAY AND TUESDAY: THE AFOREMENTIONED INLAND TROUGH WILL LIKELY
SHIFT OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT WEEK, YIELDING THE CONTINUATION OF
ELEVATED WINDS WITH A LOW CHANCE OF ADDITIONAL SCAS ON TUESDAY. IT'S
NOTEWORTHY TO MENTION THAT THERE IS A LOW CHANCE (20%) FOR A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN GULF THIS WEEKEND
AND THEN SHIFT SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS OUR LOCAL WATERS ON
MONDAY/TUESDAY, WHICH COULD BRING ADDITIONAL WIND AND WAVE CONCERNS.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
JULY 17:
KCHS: 99/1983
KCXM: 97/1925
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
JULY 17:
KCHS: 79/2025
JULY 18:
KCHS: 79/2007
KCXM: 81/2007
JULY 19:
KCHS: 79/1986
KCXM: 83/1986
JULY 22:
KCXM: 83/2011
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR SCZ045-150-152.
MARINE...NONE.
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