689  
FXUS62 KCHS 130528  
AFDCHS  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC  
128 AM EDT SAT AUG 13 2022  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
A COLD FRONT PUSH THROUGH THE AREA AND OFFSHORE TONIGHT INTO  
SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND,  
BEFORE ANOTHER FRONT IMPACTS THE REGION DURING THE EARLY TO  
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/
 
 
THE COLD FRONT AS OF THE WRITING OF THIS DISCUSSION WAS LOCATED  
NEAR OR JUST OFFSHORE THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA THEN TURNS  
WESTWARD AND IS FOUND ROUGHLY NEAR THE I-16 CORRIDOR OF GEORGIA.  
THIS FEATURE WILL CLEAR MUCH OF THE REST OF THE LOCAL COUNTIES  
BY DAYBREAK. UNTIL THEN, IT WILL GENERATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED  
SHOWERS AND MAYBE A STRAY T-STORMS MAINLY ACROSS THE COASTAL  
COUNTIES AND NEAR THE ALTAMAHA RIVER. THE BULK OF CONVECTION  
THOUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE ATLANTIC. GIVEN THAT WE'RE ALREADY  
EXPERIENCING FOG AND/OR STRATUS ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA, AND  
GUIDANCE IS DEPICTING IT AS CONTINUING, WE HAVE ADDED MENTION TO  
THE FORECAST GIVEN THE LIGHT WINDS, LOW DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS  
AND WET GROUNDS. THERE IS ENOUGH COOL AIR THAT FILTERS IN BEHIND  
THE FRONT TO DROP MIN TEMPS TO THE MID AND UPPER 60S INLAND,  
70-73F NEAR AND ALONG THE SHORELINE.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
A COLD FRONT WILL HAVE OR WILL BE EXITING THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING,  
LIKELY STALLING OFFSHORE AND TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY. HIGHER  
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INLAND. DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO FILTER IN FROM  
THE NORTH, BUT SOME LINGERING MOISTURE COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED TO  
PERHAPS SCATTERED SHOWERS NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND ESPECIALLY  
ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA CLOSE TO THE ALTAMAHA. HIGH  
TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. LOWS SATURDAY  
NIGHT WILL BE COOLER, RANGING FROM THE MID 60S INLAND TO LOWER 70S  
AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST.  
 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST INLAND THROUGH SUNDAY. A WEAK LOW COULD  
FORM ALONG THE STALLED FRONT OFFSHORE, BUT IT SHOULD BE WELL ENOUGH  
AWAY FROM THE AREA WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE INLAND TO MAINTAIN A DRY  
FORECAST. IT WILL BE A PLEASANT MID-AUGUST DAY WITH LOWER HUMIDITY  
AND TEMPERATURES AGAIN SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL, IN THE MID TO  
UPPER 80S. LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.  
 
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN ON MONDAY AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY  
DROPS OUT OF NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ALONG THE BASE OF A MID LEVEL  
TROUGH AND HELPS SEND ANOTHER COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE REGION.  
COULDN'T RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS BUT THE HIGHEST RAIN  
CHANCES SHOULD STAY TO THE NORTHWEST THROUGH SUNSET. HIGHS WILL BE  
IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
A LARGE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN STATES THROUGH  
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTIES WITH TIMING AND  
EVOLUTION, BUT A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AND  
POSSIBLY STALL IN THE VICINITY. THIS PATTERN WILL LEAD TO A MORE  
ACTIVE PERIOD WITH SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE FORECAST EACH  
DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO BELOW MID-AUGUST NORMALS.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
A COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED KCHS AND KJZI AND WILL PUSH THROUGH  
KSAV BY AROUND 08Z. IN WAKE OF THE FRONT THERE WILL BE MVFR  
CONDITIONS DUE TO LOW CLOUDS AND MAYBE A LITTLE FOG THROUGH AT  
LEAST MID MORNING. IT'S CERTAINLY POSSIBLE THAT A PERIOD OF IFR  
OR EVEN LIFR CONDITIONS MIGHT OCCUR. WE'LL WILL AMEND IF THAT  
BECOMES NECESSARY.  
 
VFR WILL RETURN FOR LATE MORNING AND BEYOND. KSAV HAS THE BEST  
CHANCE OF EXPERIENCING A SHOWER ALONG THE SEA BREEZE THIS  
AFTERNOON. SINCE ANY IMPACTS WOULD BE MINIMAL AND COVERAGE IS  
SO SMALL, WE OPTED NOT TO MENTION AT THIS TIME.  
 
ALL SITES WILL EXPERIENCE WIND GUSTS OF 15-20 KT THIS AFTERNOON  
DURING THE PEAK HEATING.  
 
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: PREVAILING VFR. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE  
POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/TSTORMS EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
OVERNIGHT: A COLD FRONT WILL STEADILY WORK IT'S WAY SOUTH  
ACROSS THE SOUTH CAROLINA WATERS, REACHING INTO THE GEORGIA  
WATERS CLOSER TO DAYBREAK. WINDS IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WILL  
BE SW OR W AT 15 KT OR LESS, WHILE TURNING TO THE NW AND N AT  
SIMILAR SPEEDS IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 2-3  
FEET THROUGHOUT. WE'LL HAVE TO KEEP A SHARP WATCH OUT FOR SOME  
LIGHT FOG DRIFTING INTO CHARLESTON HARBOR. BUT ODDS FAVOR THERE  
BEING TOO MUCH MIXING, SO WE LEFT IT OUT OF THE FORECAST.  
 
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN  
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD. NORTHEAST/EAST  
WINDS WILL LARGELY PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE  
BUILDS INLAND. SPEEDS WILL AVERAGE AROUND 15 KNOTS OR LESS. WINDS  
WILL TURN BACK TO A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION EARLY NEXT WEEK AHEAD  
OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT WHICH COULD LINGER IN THE VICINITY INTO THE  
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. SEAS WILL BE 2-3 FEET.  
 

 
   
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
 
 
THE COMBINATION OF ASTRONOMICAL INFLUENCES AND NORTHEAST WINDS COULD  
LEAD TO MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE CHARLESTON AND COLLETON  
COUNTY COASTS ON SATURDAY EVENING.  
 

 
   
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
GA...NONE.  
SC...NONE.  
MARINE...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
NEAR TERM...  
SHORT TERM...ETM  
LONG TERM...ETM  
AVIATION...  
MARINE...  
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab SC Page
The Nexlab GA Page Main Text Page