840
FXUS62 KCHS 192334
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
734 PM EDT FRI JUN 19 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT THE 00Z TAF
ISSUANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) BREEZY WITH ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY.
- 2) A FAIRLY TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR THE
WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH DAILY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES. HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: BREEZY WITH ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.
REGIONAL RADAR COMPOSITE HAS INDICATED A BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS JUST
SOUTH OF THE ALTAMAHA RIVER, WITH STRATIFORM RAIN AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SE GA INTO THIS AFTERNOON. CORFIDI VECTORS
INDICATE THAT THE CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN ON A TRACK TO THE SE,
KEEPING THE HEAVIEST CONVECTION JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA. THE MAJORITY
OF STRATIFORM RAIN MAY SLIDE OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS BY MID-
AFTERNOON. MID TO LATE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES MAY PEAK IN THE UPPER
80S ACROSS SE GA TO AROUND 90 ACROSS THE SC LOWCOUNTRY. SPC
MESOANALYSIS INDICATES THAT INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON, WITH SBCAPE BETWEEN 3000-3500 J/KG AND
MLCAPE AROUND 2000 J/KG. AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM
SHOULD DEVELOP DURING THE HEAT OF THE AFTERNOON, REMAINING UNTIL
AROUND SUNSET THIS EVENING. THE 12Z RUN OF THE HREF INDICATES THAT A
CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY JUST WEST OF LAKE MARION THIS EVENING,
THEN TRACKING EAST, POSSIBLY PASSING OVER PORTIONS OF BERKELEY AND
CHARLESTON COUNTIES LATE THIS EVENING. THIS LATE EVENING ROUND OF
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE TRIGGERED BY AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
THE REST OF THE NIGHT SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY DRY. GRADUALLY COOLING
LLVL THICKNESS ARE FORECAST FOLLOWING THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT.
LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE LOW 70S INLAND TO
THE MID 70S ALONG THE COAST.
KEY MESSAGE 2: A FAIRLY TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR
THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH DAILY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES. HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
A FRONT IN THE VICINITY ON SATURDAY WILL EVENTUALLY WASH OUT, WITH
THE REGION TO BECOME POSITIONED BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. ALOFT, A SERIES OF
WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS THE SOUTHEAST, BEFORE LARGER SCALE
TROUGHING POSSIBLY SETTLES INTO THE EASTERN CONUS. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY, WITH
COVERAGE PEAKING IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENINGS WHEN INSTABILITY IS
HIGHEST. THE THREAT FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW, BUT CANNOT
RULE OUT A COUPLE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THIS TIME OF YEAR,
ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD PEAK IN THE LOW TO MID 90S, WITH HEAT INDICES
POTENTIALLY REACHING THE 105-110F RANGE, PARTICULARLY ALONG THE
COASTAL COUNTIES. NWS HEATRISK ALSO SHOWS A MAJOR RISK (LEVEL 3/4)
IN THESE LOCATIONS. WE WILL NEED TO WATCH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAT
ADVISORIES.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
PREVAILING VFR AT KCHS/KJZI THROUGH THE 00Z TAF PERIOD. A BRIEF
MOMENT OF MVFR CIGS COULD MOVE IN BETWEEN 05 AND 08Z, HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE ANY RESTRICTIVE CIGS
IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
MVFR CIGS COULD LINGER AT KSAV THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS,
DENOTED BY A TEMPO GROUP IN THE 00Z TAF. ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR
CIGS IS LIKELY AT KSAV FROM AROUND 09 TO 14Z. THEREAFTER,
PREVAILING VFR.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: BRIEF PERIODS OF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE WITH ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MARINE
TONIGHT: A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH SOUTH ACROSS
THE WATERS LATE TONIGHT, SHIFTING WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST.
SEAS WILL SUBSIDE THROUGH THE NIGHT, REACHING 2 TO 3 FT BY
DAYBREAK SATURDAY.
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: NO MARINE CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE WEEKEND. THE COASTAL WATERS WILL BECOME POSITIONED
BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE AND AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT MONDAY AND TUESDAY, LEADING TO INCREASING WINDS.
GUSTS COULD APPROACH 25 KNOTS AT TIMES ESPECIALLY IN THE
AFTERNOONS, BUT LOOKS FAIRLY MARGINAL FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
AT THIS TIME. CONDITIONS SHOULD STAY BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS ON
WEDNESDAY.
RIP CURRENTS: SWELLS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL LEAD TO A MODERATE
RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS AT SOUTH CAROLINA BEACHES FRIDAY.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
CPM/ETM/NED
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