097
FXUS62 KCHS 131117
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
617 AM EST FRI FEB 13 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE AVIATION SECTION WAS UPDATED FOR THE 12Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) AN IMPACTFUL SYSTEM ARRIVES DURING THE LATER HALF OF THIS
WEEKEND, RESULTING IN RENEWED PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND
PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: AN IMPACTFUL SYSTEM ARRIVES DURING THE LATER
HALF OF THIS WEEKEND, RESULTING IN RENEWED PRECIPITATION CHANCES
AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY, GUIDANCE IS DEPICTING AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TRACKING ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTHEAST CONUS, WITH A
SECONDARY SHORTWAVE MOVING TOWARDS THE REGION FROM THE WEST. AT
THE SURFACE, THE SECONDARY SHORTWAVE IS ACCOMPANIED BY A SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH, WITH THE REGION
REMAINING IN THE DEVELOPING WARM SECTOR OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
LOW. THIS WILL LEAD TO WET CONDITIONS, GIVEN PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES EXCEEDING THE 90TH PERCENTILE OF CLIMATOLOGY NEAR 1.25"
IN COMBINATION WITH UPWARD VERTICAL LIFT FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED
SHORTWAVE PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS EVEN A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS, STARTING SUNDAY MORNING AND ENDING OVERNIGHT INTO
MONDAY. NBM 4.3 QPF PROBABILITIES SEEM TO BE RUNNING ON THE
WARM/HOT SIDE, WHEREAS NBM 5.0 SEEMS MORE IN LINE WITH THE 12Z
ENSEMBLES. THIS WOULD SUGGEST PROBABILITIES FOR AN INCH ARE
CLOSER TO THE 20-30% RANGE, WITH PROBABILITIES FOR HALF AN INCH
GENERALLY IN THE 50-60% RANGE. ASIDE FROM RAINFALL CHANCES,
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE WARMER SIDE WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S AND AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 60S AND
70S. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE ON THE BREEZIER SIDE, SUSTAINED IN
THE TEENS WITH GUSTS INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S.
CONFIDENCE OVERALL REMAINS HIGH IN HOW THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS
EXPECTED TO UNFOLD, NAMELY IN BOTH THE SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOW
REMAINING FAIRLY STEADY IN STRENGTH AS THEY MOVE EASTWARDS,
THOUGH ENSEMBLE CLUSTERING ANALYSIS SHOWS THE FEATURE PRODUCING
THE MOST UNCERTAINTY IS THE SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST. IF THAT SHORTWAVE WERE TO SPEED UP FASTER THAN THE
MAJORITY OF SOLUTIONS WOULD SUGGEST, EXPECT THE SURFACE LOW TO
STRENGTHEN QUICKER AND THUS BECOME STRONGER, LEADING TO
INCREASED RAINFALL AMOUNTS, WHEREAS THE OPPOSITE IS ALSO TRUE.
THE NBM IS LIKELY HOLDING ONTO THE POPS FOR TOO LONG INTO MONDAY
AND EVEN EARLY TUESDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THOSE SLOWER SOLUTIONS,
SO EXPECT THAT TO BE REFINED WITH THE UPDATED DATA CYCLES.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KCHS, KJZI, AND KSAV THROUGH 12Z
SATURDAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: THE POTENTIAL FOR FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS WILL INCREASE STARTING SUNDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION.
MARINE
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE BENIGN CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
LOCAL WATERS THROUGH SATURDAY. THE SETUP WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE ON
SUNDAY AS THE LOCAL WATERS GET SITUATED BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE ATLANTIC AND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM
THE LOWER MS VALLEY. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE
DAY, WITH POTENTIAL FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR
PORTIONS OF THE WATERS BY LATE SUNDAY. THE LOW SHOULD THEN SHIFT
OFFSHORE AND TRACK AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST. AS IT DOES, THERE
COULD BE A NORTHEAST SURGE ON THE BACKSIDE AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN. THIS COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF POTENTIAL SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
APT/BSH
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