043
FXUS62 KCHS 190745
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
345 AM EDT THU SEP 19 2019
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE NOTICEABLY COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS TODAY, THEN PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD
FRONT COULD PUSH INTO THE REGION AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 340 AM: IR SATELLITE INDICATED A LARGE PATCH OF STRATOCU
GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER, DRIFTING SOUTH.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY BUILD ACROSS THE CWA
TODAY, SUPPORTING GUSTY NE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS, SKY COVER OVER LAND WILL LIKELY DECREASE FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH. BY MID DAY, HREF INDICATES THAT SHOWERS MAY
BEGIN TO FORM OVER THE GULF STREAM AND TRACK TOWARDS THE GA
COAST. OVER THE MARINE AREAS, I WILL INDICATE PARTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS. OTHERWISE, CONDITIONS TODAY
WILL BE VERY PLEASANT ACROSS SE SC AND GA, WITH HIGHS NEAR 80
NORTH TO THE MID 80S SOUTH WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S.
TONIGHT: SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS
MID-LEVEL RIDGE GRADUALLY BUILDS OVER THE REGION. DEEP HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD YIELD MOSTLY CLEAR
CONDITIONS INLAND. LINGERING INSTABILITY OVER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS
MAY SUPPORT A FEW SHOWERS AND GREATER CLOUD COVER. USING A BLEND OF
MOS, I WILL FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S INLAND TO
NEAR 70 ACROSS THE BEACHES.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
DEEP LAYERED RIDGING WILL BUILD FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY AND THEN
BLANKET THE FORECAST AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.
DURING FRIDAY, THE ONLY FEATURE OF INTEREST WILL BE A WEAK SHALLOW
COASTAL TROUGH EARLY IN THE DAY; TRANSITIONING INLAND SOUTH OF THE
SAVANNAH RIVER IN THE AFTERNOON. THERE WILL ALSO BE A FAIRLY QUICK
PROGRESSION OF THE SEA BREEZE IN SOUTH GA. MOISTURE OVER SOUTHEAST
GA REMAINS SHALLOW (MOSTLY BELOW 850 MB WITH THE MID LEVELS STILL
VERY DRY. WE MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE POP ALONG THE COAST EARLY ON
AND THEN ALL GA AREAS ALONG/SOUTH OF I-16 IN THE AFTERNOON. IF ANY
MEASURABLE RAINS MANAGE TO FALL, WE SUSPECT AMOUNTS WOULD ONLY
AMOUNT TO FEW HUNDREDS OF AN INCH. ELSEWHERE, SUNSHINE MIXING WITH
PERIODS OF CUMULUS AND STRATOCU WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 NORTH TO THE
LOWER/MID 80S ACROSS GA.
THE WEEKEND WILL BE DRY WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE, WHILE EXPANSIVE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS FROM NORTH GA TO THE CAROLINAS.
SCATTERED CU AND STRATOCU WILL BE MOST PREVALENT ALONG COASTAL ZONES
WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW. TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE MID 80S COASTAL HALF
OF THE AREA WITH SOME UPPER 80S POSSIBLE INLAND EACH AFTERNOON.
RADIATIONAL COOLING AT NIGHT WILL BE DECENT, LOWS AROUND 60 INLAND
TO THE MID 60S COASTAL CORRIDOR.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
DEEP LAYERED RIDGING WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY MONDAY AND THEN TEND TO
BREAK DOWN THEREAFTER, BEFORE RETURNING AGAIN LATE WEEK. A STRONGER
MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL PASS WELL NORTH OF OUR REGION MONDAY NIGHT
BUT DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES BY MID WEEK AND PERHAPS LINGER IN THURSDAY. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW NO SIGNIFICANT CHANCES FOR RAINFALL DURING THE
MEDIUM RANGE. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO RUN ABOVE CLIMO WITH SOME 90
DEGREE HIGHS RETURNING FOR INLAND AREAS OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
06Z TAFS: VFR. EXPECT NORTHEAST WINDS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS
THIS AFTERNOON.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
MARINE
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE MARINE ZONES
TODAY, LINGERING TONIGHT. NORTHEAST WINDS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE
ACROSS THE WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT, WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY 20 KTS
WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS. WAVE HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 10
FT BEYOND 50 NM TO 4 FT NEAR THE COASTS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE
BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL ZONES OUTSIDE OF THE CHS HARBOR TO HIGHLIGHT
WITH WIND AND SEAS. THE CHS HARBOR MAY SEE NEAR ADVISORY WIND GUSTS
THIS AFTERNOON, BUT GUSTS ARE EXPECTED JUST BELOW CRITERIA.
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL BUILD CLOSER TO THE SC WATERS ON
FRIDAY WHILE A STRONG LOW LEVEL GRADIENT PERSISTS OVER THE GA
WATERS. SCA CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST ALL WATERS ON FRIDAY. THE CHS
HARBOR WILL LIKELY BE BELOW SCA CRITERIA. ONSHORE FLOW WILL THEN
WEAKEN THIS WEEKEND WITH A MUCH WEAKER SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
FORECAST. SEAS SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVER OFFSHORE WATERS WITH
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH WINDS LIGHTER AND
VARIABLE AT TIMES. WE WILL WATCH FOR ANY ADVANCING SWELLS FROM
DISTANT TROPICAL CYCLONE JERRY.
RIP CURRENTS: HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ON ALL BEACHES THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING DUE TO STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS AND AT LEAST A
2-3 FT/11 SECOND PERIOD SWELL CREATED BY OFFSHORE HURRICANE
HUMBERTO. AN ELEVATED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS MAY CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
LOW CHANCES FOR MINOR SALT WATER FLOODING ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST TODAY DURING THE MIDDAY HIGH TIDE CYCLE.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR GAZ117-119-139-
141.
SC...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR SCZ048>051.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ350-352-354.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ374.
NEAR TERM...NED
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...NED
MARINE...NED
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page