645
FXUS62 KCHS 291111
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
711 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ALL SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) DANGEROUS HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL IMPACT SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
AND SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA TODAY. EXTREME HEAT WARNINGS AND
HEAT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA.
- 2) ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THERE WILL BE A RISK OF A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, PRIMARILY ALONG AND SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 16.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: DANGEROUS HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL IMPACT
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA TODAY. EXTREME
HEAT WARNINGS AND HEAT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA.
A STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE ROCKIES AND
PLAINS, WITH THE EASTERN PERIPHERY BUILDING INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES. A WEAK FRONT WILL LINGER IN THE VICINITY OF
THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. WITH THE STRONG RIDGING ALOFT AND THE
WEAK SURFACE FEATURE, TEMPERATURES WILL SOAR INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 90S TODAY. DEW POINTS ARE FORECAST TO REACH INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 70S, HIGHEST ALONG THE COASTAL CORRIDOR BEHIND THE SEA
BREEZE. THIS SET UP WILL YIELD HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE 110-115
RANGE EAST OF I-95 AND 105-110 JUST INLAND OF I-95. LOCATIONS
FAR INLAND WILL LIKELY SEE HEAT INDEX VALUES TOP OUT AROUND 103.
AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR AREAS EAST OF
I-95 AND SOUTH OF BEAUFORT COUNTY, SC, WITH A HEAT ADVISORY IN
EFFECT NORTH OF BEAUFORT AND JUST WEST OF I-95. HEAT AND
HUMIDITY WILL DROP TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES TOWARDS THE END OF THE
WEEK AS A FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION.
KEY MESSAGE 2: ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THERE WILL BE A RISK OF A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, PRIMARILY ALONG AND SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 16.
A FRONT IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY PUSH SOUTHWARD TODAY, BECOMING
ALIGNED ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST GA BY THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT
AMONG THE HI-RES MODELS AND THE 29/00Z HREF THAT THE BEST CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-16, AND
EVEN MORESO ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE ALTAMAHA. THE ENVIRONMENT IN
THIS AREA IS PROGGED TO HAVE MLCAPE VALUES UPWARDS OF 2,000 J/KG
AND DCAPE VALUES OF 1,000 J/KG OR HIGHER. ALSO, MODEL SOUNDINGS
DEPICT MID- LEVEL FLOW OF AROUND 25-30 KNOTS. SO THE MAIN
THREAT WILL CERTAINLY BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. AS MENTIONED
BEFORE THE RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS AND THE SEVERE POTENTIAL
INCREASES THE FURTHER SOUTH YOU GO, ESPECIALLY FOR THE COUNTIES
ALONG AND NEAR THE ALTAMAHA. TO REALIZE THE SEVERE THREAT, IT
MIGHT REQUIRE STORMS TO DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE ALTAMAHA AND THEN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES TO PROPAGATE NORTH OF THE RIVER AND HELP TO
INITIATE NEW CONVECTION. THE MAIN TIME PERIOD OF CONCERN IS
ROUGHLY FROM 4-10PM. THIS AREA CONTINUES TO BE HIGHLIGHTED IN A
MARGINAL RISK IN SPC'S DAY 1 SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK.
AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THE 12Z TAF PERIOD BEGINS WITH VFR CONDITIONS AT KCHS, KJZI,
AND KSAV. OVERALL, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. THE
ONLY REAL FORECAST CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS
NEAR KSAV THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT
MOST (IF NOT ALL) ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE TERMINAL,
BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS THAT
A THUNDERSTORM COULD DEVELOP AND GET INTO THE KSAV AREA IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING. WE HAVE MAINTAINED A
PROB30 TO ADDRESS THIS POTENTIAL.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: PRIMARILY VFR.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT: WEST WINDS THIS MORNING WILL TURN MORE
SOUTHWEST AND EVEN SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE EVENING. WIND SPEEDS
SHOULD MOSTLY TOP OUT IN THE 10-15 KNOT RANGE WITH GUSTS UP TO
AROUND 20 KNOTS. LATE TONIGHT, A WIND SHIFT WILL WORK ACROSS THE
WATERS, TURNING WINDS MORE NORTHERLY OR EVEN NORTHEASTERLY BY
SUNRISE THURSDAY. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 2-4 FEET TODAY, FOLLOWED BY
2-3 FEET OVERNIGHT.
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY: SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL DOMINATE
ACROSS THE MARINE WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH GUSTS TOPPING
OUT AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS THROUGH FRIDAY. GUSTS ARE FORECAST TO
SHIFT TO THE SW AND INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS EARLY THIS
WEEKEND AHEAD OF THE ARRIVAL OF A COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY, BRINGING AN
ADDITIONAL SURGE IN WINDS AND SEAS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES COULD
BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE MARINE WATERS FOR 25 KNOT WIND
GUSTS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
JULY 29:
KCHS: 80/2016
KSAV: 82/1878
AUGUST 1:
KSAV: 79/2020
AUGUST 2:
KCHS: 79/2022
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR GAZ099>101-114-115-137-216-238.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR GAZ217>219-239>241.
SC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR SCZ147-149-150-152.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR SCZ148-151.
MARINE...NONE.
BSH/CPM
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