839
FXUS62 KCHS 222340
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
740 PM EDT THU OCT 22 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) DRY CONDITIONS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- 2) STRONG NORTHEAST FLOW THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK WILL RESULT IN SEVERAL COASTAL HAZARDS INCLUDING TIDAL
FLOODING, RIP CURRENTS, HIGH SURF, AND BEACH EROSION.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: DRY CONDITIONS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH LATE
WEEK. OVER THE WEEKEND, THE HIGH WILL STRENGTHEN INLAND WHILE A
COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS OFFSHORE. THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN
QUITE DRY, ESPECIALLY THROUGH FRIDAY WHEN LREF INDICATES PWATS
FALL BELOW THE 5TH PERCENTILE. THE PATTERN WILL SUPPORT A RAIN-
FREE FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. DESPITE PLENTY
OF SUNSHINE, TEMPERATURES WILL LEAN ON THE COOLER SIDE OF
NORMAL. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ON FRIDAY WILL
MODERATE TO THE LOWER TO MID 70S FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE 40S ACROSS MANY
INTERIOR LOCATIONS.
KEY MESSAGE 2: STRONG NORTHEAST FLOW THIS WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL RESULT IN SEVERAL COASTAL HAZARDS INCLUDING
TIDAL FLOODING, RIP CURRENTS, HIGH SURF, AND BEACH EROSION.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, FAVORING AN ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
SETUP WILL YIELD STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE AREA, WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR COASTAL HAZARDS TO EXTEND INTO AT LEAST EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
COASTAL FLOODING: ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH THE UPCOMING LUNAR PERIGEE
(10/28) AND FULL MOON (10/26). IN FACT, THE HIGHEST ASTRONOMICAL
TIDES FOR ALL OF 2026 WILL COME TUESDAY (10/27) AND WEDNESDAY
(10/28) WHEN CHARLESTON HARBOR PEAKS AT ~6.9 FT MLLW AND FORT
PULASKI PEAKS AT 8.9 FT MLLW. WITH ANOTHER PERIOD OF STRONG
NORTHEAST FLOW ON THE WAY THIS WEEKEND, LARGE TIDAL DEPARTURES WILL
START TO OVERLAP WITH INCREASING ASTRONOMICAL TIDES, PROVIDING
INCREASED PROBABILITIES OF SEEING A MULTI-DAY COASTAL FLOODING EVENT
FOR THE ENTIRE COAST. MINOR COASTAL FLOODING COULD BEGIN AS EARLY AS
THE UPCOMING LATE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE CYCLE, AND THIS MINOR FLOODING
POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. OVER THE
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK, THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO EVEN MAJOR
COASTAL FLOODING WILL INCREASE AT THE CHARLESTON HARBOR. AT FORT
PULASKI, MINOR TO MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING
THIS TIME PERIOD. OF NOTE, THE MORNING HIGH TIDE CYCLE WILL BE THE
DOMINANT HIGH TIDE OF THE DAY.
COASTAL HAZARDS: STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS AND INCREASED WAVE ACTION
WILL SUPPORT AN ELEVATED RIP CURRENT RISK OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS IS IN PLACE FOR
ALL BEACHES SATURDAY, FOLLOWED BY A HIGH RISK SATURDAY. AN ENHANCED
PERIOD OF RIP CURRENTS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ALSO, HIGH SURF WITH BREAKING WAVE HEIGHTS OF 5 FT OR HIGHER WILL BE
POSSIBLE AND HIGH SURF ADVISORIES COULD BE NEEDED THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE COMBINATION OF ELEVATED TIDES, INCREASED WAVE
ACTION, AND PERSISTENT GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
BEACH EROSION, WITH THE MOST SIGNIFICANT EROSION OCCURRING AROUND
HIGH TIDE CYCLES THIS WEEKEND.
LAKE WINDS: GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON LAKE
MOULTRIE FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A LAKE WIND
ADVISORY COULD BE NEEDED FOR WINDS GUSTING UP TO 25 KT AND WAVES OF
2-3 FT. THE COMBINATION OF STEADY NORTHEAST WINDS AND WAVE ACTION
COULD YIELD SOME LAKESHORE EROSION ALONG THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THE
LAKE ALONG WITH SOME OVERWASH. THIS IS INCLUDES AREAS FROM ROUGHLY
PINOPOLIS TO BLACKS CAMP NEAR CROSS.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
NO AVIATION CONCERNS AS WINDS WEAKEN OVERNIGHT, BECOMING GUSTY OUT
OF THE NORTHEAST FOR FRIDAY. MOST WILL SEE INTERMITTENT GUSTY
CONDITIONS INTO THE TEENS DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS, CLOSER TO THE LOWER 20S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COASTLINE.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS ANTICIPATED AT
CHS/JZI/SAV TERMINALS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT: NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
TONIGHT. SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY BE 15 KNOTS OR LESS, BUT WILL
START TO CREEP UP TO THE 15-20 KT RANGE CLOSER TO DAYBREAK
FRIDAY. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 2-3 FT ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS,
3-5 FT OVER THE SOUTH CAROLINA OFFSHORE WATERS AND 3-6 FT OVER
THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATERS WHERE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS
IN EFFECT.
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY: HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE MID-
ATLANTIC STATES WHILE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS
THIS WEEKEND. THE SETUP WILL FAVOR A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
LOCAL WATERS WITH MARINE CONDITIONS RAPIDLY DETERIORATING FRIDAY
NIGHT. WINDS/SEAS WILL SUBSTANTIALLY INCREASE DURING THE WEEKEND,
LIKELY REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS FOR A PERIOD
FRIDAY EVENING, BEFORE GALES ARE PREVALENT BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY
ACROSS MOST WATERS OUTSIDE THE CHARLESTON HARBOR, THEN PEAK IN
INTENSITY SUNDAY, BEFORE SLOWLY IMPROVING MONDAY AND TUESDAY. STRONG
GALES ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY FOR THE 20-60 NM
WATERS.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT ACROSS OFFSHORE GA WATERS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT, BUT WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE
UPGRADED TO A GALE WATCH/WARNING FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. A SHORT DURATION SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COULD ALSO BECOME
NECESSARY ACROSS NEARSHORE WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT PRIOR TO GALE
WATCH/WARNING ISSUANCES THIS WEEKEND. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED ACROSS THE CHARLESTON HARBOR THIS WEEKEND. WINDS
AND SEAS START TO TREND LOWER LATE MONDAY, BUT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVEL CONDITIONS COULD PERSIST ACROSS LOCAL WATERS OUTSIDE THE
CHARLESTON HARBOR THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ384.
APT/DPB/ETM
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