971
FXUS62 KCHS 101829
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
229 PM EDT MON AUG 10 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ALL SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) TYPICAL SUMMERTIME STORM ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MID-WEEK. SOME STORMS MAY PRODUCE STRONG TO SEVERE WIND
GUSTS.
- 2) HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TUESDAY AND PERSIST
INTO THE WEEKEND. HEAT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED AND
EXTREME HEAT WATCHES/WARNINGS CANNOT BE RULED OUT, ESPECIALLY
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: TYPICAL SUMMERTIME STORM ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MID-WEEK. SOME STORMS MAY PRODUCE STRONG TO SEVERE WIND
GUSTS.
REST OF TODAY: RADAR IMAGERY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWED INCREASING
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE
MIDLANDS AND INTO OUR SOUTH CAROLINA COUNTIES. MODELS HAVE LARGELY
BEEN UNDERDONE WITH THIS ACTIVITY. WE SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
SPC MESOANALYSIS CURRENTLY INDICATES MLCAPE OF AROUND 2500-3000 J/KG
WITH DCAPES OF 700-1000 J/KG. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AS THE MAIN HAZARD.
IN ADDITION, LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ANY
STORM THAT DEVELOPS. FLOOD THREAT IS LOW, BUT NON-ZERO
ESPECIALLY IN LOCATIONS WHERE STORMS MOVE OVER REPEATEDLY.
THE CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE FOR
MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND
OCCASIONAL WEAK PERTURBATIONS ALOFT. UPPER RIDGE CENTERED TO THE
SOUTH IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY, WHICH WOULD
ACT TO KEEP COVERAGE MORE LIMITED THAN ON OTHER DAYS. WHILE THE
PATTERN FAVORS MORE PULSE-TYPE CONVECTION, A STRONGER TO SEVERE
STORM WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WOULD BE THE
PRIMARY THREAT. THIS POTENTIAL ALSO JIVES WITH SOME OF THE LATEST AI
GUIDANCE.
KEY MESSAGE 2: HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TUESDAY AND
PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND. HEAT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED
AND EXTREME HEAT WATCHES/WARNINGS CANNOT BE RULED OUT, ESPECIALLY
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.
HEAT HEADLINES ARE LIKELY TUESDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS HEAT INDEX
VALUES SOAR INTO THE 105-110 RANGE EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH MID-WEEK
AND UPWARDS OF 115 LATE IN THE WEEK. THE DAILY RECORD HIGHS AND
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE CHALLENGED AT OUR
THREE CLIMATE SITES (SEE CLIMATE SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS). GIVEN
THE VERY MILD OVERNIGHT PERIODS AND MINIMAL COVERAGE OF
PRECIPITATION, THERE WILL BE FEW INSTANCES OF RELIEF FROM THE HEAT
THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
TUESDAY: UPPER RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT WEST ACROSS THE AREA AND
INTO THE DEEP SOUTH WITH MAINLY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR TEMPERATURES TO QUICKLY INCREASE INTO THE MAINLY THE MID 90S
WITH SOME UPPER 90S IN SOME LOCATIONS ON TUESDAY. THESE HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL COMBINE WITH RATHER HIGH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S MAINLY BEHIND THE ADVANCING SEABREEZE EACH AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL RESULT IN HEAT INDICES MAINLY ALONG THE COASTAL INTERFACE OF
108 TO 110 WITH SOME ISOLATED LOCATIONS POSSIBLY INCREASING TO
AROUND 112. FURTHER INLAND, SOME DRIER AIR ALOFT SHOULD BE ABLE TO
MIX INTO THE AREA LEADING TO SOME LOWER 70S DEWPOINTS KEEPING HEAT
INDICES IN AND AROUND THE 104 TO 108 RANGE. AS A RESULT, WE HAVE
GONE AHEAD AND ISSUED A HEAT ADVISORY FOR ALL OF COASTAL SOUTH
CAROLINA TOMORROW AND DEPENDING ON OBSERVATIONS MAY NEED TO EXPAND
FURTHER SOUTH INTO COASTAL GEORGIA.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: THE RIDGING ALOFT WILL GRADUALLY AMPLIFY
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK, LIKELY BRINGING THE WARMEST
TEMPERATURES OF THE HEAT WAVE. HIGHS ON EACH DAY WILL LIKELY REACH
INTO THE UPPER 90S, WITH A BRIEF MOMENT OF TOUCHING 100 NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY FOLLOW TUESDAY WITH INLAND
AREAS MAINLY WEST OF I-95 MIXING INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S
DEWPOINTS LEADING TO HEAT INDICES IN THE 104 TO 108 RANGE. EAST OF
I-95 THINGS WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY MORE OPPRESSIVE AS RATHER RICH
UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S DEWPOINTS SHOULD SURGE FURTHER INLAND EACH DAY
RESULTING IN HEAT INDICES REACHING THE 108 TO 112 RANGE ACROSS A
LARGE PORTION OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY, THURSDAY, AND FRIDAY. AREAS
ALONG THE HIGHWAY 17 CORRIDOR TO THE COAST INCLUDING METRO
CHARLESTON AND SAVANNAH COULD REACH HEAT INDICES APPROACHING 115+
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS COUPLES WITH ECMWF EXTREME FORECAST INDEX
AND SHIFT OF TAILS THAT SUPPORT A RATHER HIGH CONFIDENCE IMPACTFUL
HEAT WAVE. PROBABILISTIC HEAT RISK ALSO SUPPORTS NEARLY 80-90%
EXCEEDING HIGH HEAT RISK FOR MOST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY AND NEARLY 40% OF EXCEEDING EXTREME HEAT RISK ON THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY WHICH OVERALL JIVES WITH THE POTENTIAL WORST OF THE HEAT
WAVE. EXPECT SEVERAL DAYS OF HEAT ADVISORIES AND POSSIBLY EXTREME
HEAT WATCHES/WARNINGS TO COME LATER THIS WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
PREDOMINANTLY VFR THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY. RADAR EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON SHOWED INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES WITHIN ANY STORM THAT DIRECTLY IMPACTS THE
TERMINALS. COVERAGE WILL WANE LATER THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF
HEATING. ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON
TUESDAY AFTERNOON, HOWEVER ANY POTENTIAL IMPACTS WOULD LIKELY
OCCUR AT THE VERY END OR BEYOND THE VALID TAF CYCLE.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: PERIODIC FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED
IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT: THE PRESSURE PATTERN WILL SUPPORT SOUTH WINDS
AROUND 15 KTS TODAY, SHIFTING FROM THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT. WAVE
HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BETWEEN 2 TO 3 FT.
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THIS WEEK. A TROUGHING WILL SET UP
ACROSS THE MARINE WATERS THIS WEEK, PERSISTING INTO THE START OF THE
WEEKEND. THIS SET UP WILL KEEP CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MARINE WATERS
BREEZY WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS GUSTING AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS. 2 TO
3 FT SEAS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE MARINE ZONES THIS WEEK.
COASTAL FLOODING: WHILE ELEVATED TIDAL CYCLES ARE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK
DUE TO THE UPCOMING PERIGEE AND NEW MOON, THE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY
SURFACE FLOW SHOULD KEEP TIDAL DEPARTURES LOW, LIMITING THE OVERALL
COASTAL FLOOD THREAT.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
AUGUST 11:
KCHS: 98/1968
KCXM: 97/1954
AUGUST 12:
KCHS: 98/1957
KCXM: 98/1998
KSAV: 100/1999
AUGUST 13:
KCHS: 100/1995
KCXM: 98/1913
KSAV: 98/2010
AUGUST 14:
KCHS: 102/1995
KSAV: 102/1925
AUGUST 15:
KCHS: 96/2023
KSAV: 100/1918
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
AUGUST 10:
KCHS: 80/2007
KSAV: 79/2024
AUGUST 11:
KCHS: 79/1983
KCXM: 82/2021
KSAV: 78/1878
AUGUST 12:
KCHS: 79/1999
KSAV: 80/1878
AUGUST 13:
KCHS: 81/2023
KSAV: 81/2023
AUGUST 14:
KCHS: 80/2023
KCXM: 83/2023
KSAV: 80/2023
AUGUST 15:
KCHS: 78/1995
KCXM: 83/2021
KSAV: 80/1995
AUGUST 16:
KCHS: 78/2019
KSAV: 78/2019
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR SCZ148>150-
152.
MARINE...NONE.
BLACK/ETM
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