427
FXUS62 KCHS 081844
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
244 PM EDT FRI MAY 8 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ALL SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS TONIGHT AND LINGERS THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS TONIGHT AND LINGERS THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DRY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO TRAVERSE THE REGION FROM
WEST TO EAST BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE THIS EVENING, WITH A STATIONARY
FRONT DRAPED ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA. WHILE SOME WEAK ECHO'S ARE
OBSERVED ON RADAR ACROSS ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTH NEAR DARIEN, GA, A DRY
LAYER BETWEEN 850-700MB IS PREVENTING THOSE RAINDROPS FROM REACHING
THE SURFACE. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE OFF THE GULF SURGES PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES TOWARDS 1.5-1.75 INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST REGION
TONIGHT, AND COMBINED WITH SHORTWAVES IN THE MID-LEVELS AND LOW-
LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT, CHANCES FOR A COUPLE ROUNDS OF MORE FOCUSED
RAINFALL RETURN. THE FIRST ROUND ARRIVES LATE TONIGHT AND DEPARTS
SATURDAY MORNING, WITH THE NEXT ARRIVING EARLY AFTERNOON SATURDAY
(~1-2 PM) PUSHING OFFSHORE IN THE EVENING HOURS.
THE AFTERNOON ROUND WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS, BUT WILL BE LARGELY DEPENDENT ON HOW QUICKLY THE
EARLIER ACTIVITY DISSIPATES WHICH WILL INFLUENCE HOW MUCH
INSTABILITY WILL BE ABLE TO BUILD. DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE SUGGEST 1000-1500 J/KG OF CAPE BUILDS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA, WITH LESSER AMOUNTS MOVING NORTHWARDS INTO SOUTHEAST SOUTH
CAROLINA. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR IS FAIRLY UNIFORM ACROSS THE REGION
BETWEEN 40 TO 50 KNOTS, THOUGH THE HIGHEST LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF
6-7.5 DEG C/KM ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA.
THIS MATCHES WELL WITH SPC'S DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK, SHOWING A
MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5) FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA,
WHICH ALSO AGREES WELL WITH THE VARIOUS AI/ML OUTPUT. GIVEN THE LONG
AND SKINNY SOUNDING PROFILES LARGE HAIL IS NOT EXPECTED, BUT WITH
THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND INVERTED V SOUNDING
SIGNATURES, STRONG WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE GREATEST RISK.
WE MAY SEE A BRIEF BREAK IN RAIN COVERAGE BETWEEN ROUNDS OF
SHORTWAVES ALOFT, THOUGH PRECIPITATION COVERAGE RISES AGAIN SUNDAY
MORNING INTO MONDAY AS STRONGER SHORTWAVES MOVE IN ALOFT. THIS WILL
BRING WIDESPREAD PRECIP ACTIVITY, FURTHER ENFORCED BY AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT AND ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES THAT MOVE IN MONDAY BEFORE
EXITING ON TUESDAY. TOTAL PRECIPITATION FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
IS CONTINUES TO RANGE FROM 0.75 TO 1.75 INCHES, THOUGH A FEW
LOCATIONS COULD EXCEED THESE AMOUNTS SHOULD SHOWERS AND/OR
THUNDERSTORMS BECOME FOCUSED NEAR THE BOUNDARY/NEARLY STATIONARY
FRONT FOR LONGER DURATIONS LATE WEEKEND. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE
PROLONGED EVENT TO REACH THESE RAINFALL TOTALS, PRECIP RATES ARE NOT
CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT FLOODING THREAT.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, BRINGING BACK
DRY CONDITIONS FOR A FEW DAYS.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE AT CHS/JZI/SAV TERMINALS THROUGH
12Z SATURDAY. SHOWERS SHOULD DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO/ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA TONIGHT, STARTING ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND IMPACTING THE
SAV TERMINAL IN THE 06-12Z TIMEFRAME POSSIBLY LINGERING LONGER INTO
THE AFTERNOON, THEN SPREADING INTO SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND
IMPACTING THE CHS/JZI TERMINALS STARTING AROUND 10Z SATURDAY. PROB30
GROUPS HAVE BEEN ADDED WITH MVFR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS DURING THESE
NOTED TIMES. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE LOOKS TO INCREASE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON, BUT HAVE LEFT MENTION OUT AS PROB30 GROUP WOULD
HAVE STARTED AT 18Z.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: OCCASIONAL FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY AS A STALLED FRONT BRINGS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
MARINE
TODAY - TUESDAY: WINDS REMAIN ON THE WEAKER SIDE WITH CALM SEAS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, ACCOMPANIED BY PERIODS OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON
MONDAY, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE COAST DOES GET PINCHED INTO
TUESDAY, LEADING TO SOME MARGINALLY BREEZY SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS. STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS A
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING,
LIKELY NECESSITATING A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WATERS OUTSIDE
OF THE CHARLESTON HARBOR.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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