450
FXUS62 KCHS 291122
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
722 AM EDT WED APR 29 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ALL SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) ROUNDS OF PASSING SHOWERS COULD BRING SOME RAINFALL TO
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA THROUGH
THURSDAY.
- 2) A DISTURBANCE COULD BRING MUCH-NEEDED RAIN TO THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY, THOUGH NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS
ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: ROUNDS OF PASSING SHOWERS COULD BRING SOME
RAINFALL TO SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA
THROUGH THURSDAY.
THROUGH TONIGHT: AT SUNRISE, THE LARGE AREA OF UPSTREAM
CONVECTION HAS MADE ITS WAY INTO THE FORECAST AREA AS MOSTLY
STRATIFORM RAIN. SO FAR, THE RADAR PRESENTATION EXCEEDS WHAT THE
HI-RES MODELS DEPICTED, AND WE SHOULD SEE A PRETTY WIDESPREAD
LIGHT RAINFALL EVENT THROUGH THE MORNING. SOME AREAS COULD SEE
UP TO A COUPLE TENTHS OF AN INCH, THOUGH MOST AREAS WILL BE LESS
THAN THAT FOR TOTALS. THIS REMNANT AREA OF LIGHT RAIN SHOULD
CONTINUE TO WORK EASTWARD THROUGH THE MORNING, COMING TO AN END
AND EXITING OFF THE COAST BY MIDDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THIS AREA
FOR THE AFTERNOON, THE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE PRETTY STABLE WITH
ONLY A LOW END THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER TO DEVELOP MAINLY
ACROSS THE CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY REGION. OVERNIGHT, THE FRONT
WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA AND LIKELY BECOME ALIGNED ALONG THE GULF
COAST AND INTO SOUTHEAST GA LATE. MODEL GUIDANCE THEN DEVELOPS
ANOTHER AREA OF CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT AND THE GULF COAST
AND TRACKS IT EASTWARD TOWARD THE AREA IN THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. MODEL GUIDANCE DOES SHOW SOME POTENTIAL FOR A CORRIDOR OF
INSTABILITY (ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-16) THAT COULD ALLOW THIS
CONVECTION TO MAINTAIN SOME STRENGTH AND POTENTIALLY EVEN POSE A
DAMAGING WIND GUST THREAT. THE SEVERE THREAT IS STILL
CONSIDERED LOW, THOUGH WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE EVOLUTION OF
THE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER AS IT ARRIVES IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS.
THURSDAY: THE AFOREMENTIONED EARLY MORNING CONVECTION SHOULD
TRACK TO THE EAST QUICKLY AND OFFSHORE BY MID MORNING. THIS WILL
LIKELY BE ON A TRAJECTORY TO MOSTLY BE AN ISSUE FOR SOUTHEAST
GA, BUT WILL DEPEND ON EXACTLY WHERE THE FRONT ALIGNS. THIS
DIMINISHING CONVECTION SHOULD EXIT TO THE EAST QUICKLY IN THE
MORNING AND LEAVE THE REST OF THE DAY DRY FOR MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. DEPENDING ON WHERE THE FRONT IS EXACTLY, THERE IS
SOME RISK OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-16 WHERE DESTABILIZATION IS MOST LIKELY.
BUT FOR MOST OF THE AREA, A DRY FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGE 2: A DISTURBANCE COULD BRING MUCH-NEEDED RAIN TO
THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY, THOUGH NO SIGNIFICANT
IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRAVERSE THE NORTHEASTERN GULF
COAST FRIDAY AND THEN SWING ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST SATURDAY
BEFORE EXITING THE SOUTHEAST. AN ABUNDANCE OF GULF MOISTURE WILL
BE USHERED INTO THE REGION, NOTED BY PWATS INCREASING TO AROUND
1.5-1.7 INCHES. WHILE ITS TOO EARLY TO PIN DOWN THE EXACT AXIS
OF HEAVIEST RAIN, AS IT STANDS, MODELS SHOW THE GENERAL AREA
RECEIVING A HEALTHY DOSE OF RAIN FROM THIS EVENT. NBM MEAN 24-HR
RAINFALL TOTALS AVERAGE ABOUT 1- 1.5 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHEAST
SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. PROBABILITIES FOR 2 INCHES
OR GREATER RANGE FROM 10-30% MOST PLACES WITH 30-40% FAR
INLAND. DUE TO LIMITED INSTABILITY (SBCAPE LESS THAN 500 J/KG),
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY REMAIN OFFSHORE OR SOUTH OF
THE ALTAMAHA RIVER. THAT BEING SAID, THE RISK OF SIGNIFICANT
IMPACTS REMAINS LOW.
AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THE 12Z TAF PERIOD BEGINS WITH A LARGE AREA OF REMNANT
STRATIFORM RAINFALL MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA. THE RAIN
HAS MOVED INTO KSAV AND WILL SOON REACH KCHS AND KJZI. THE RAIN
WILL LIKELY PRODUCE VISIBILITIES INTO THE MVFR RANGE WITH
CEILINGS POTENTIALLY LOWERING INTO THE IFR RANGE. RAINFALL WILL
END FROM WEST TO EAST LATE THIS MORNING AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN FOR THE AFTERNOON. THE NEXT FORECAST CHALLENGE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE IN
FROM THE WEST IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY. KSAV
LOOKS TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING IMPACTS FROM THIS IN THE
LATTER PORTION OF THE TAF PERIOD, BUT EVEN KCHS AND KJZI ARE AT
RISK. FOR NOW INCLUDED SHRA AT ALL THREE TAF SITES FOR THE LAST
FEW HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD, WITH A VCTS MENTION AT KSAV
STARTING AT 08Z.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK WITHIN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS,
ESPECIALLY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS A SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION.
MARINE
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT: SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS TODAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. WINDS SHOULD PEAK IN THE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
EARLY EVENING, AND WILL BE A SOLID 15-20 KNOTS FOR MOST OF THE
WATERS WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ACROSS THE CHARLESTON COUNTY
WATERS. GUSTS INTO THE 20-25 KNOT RANGE ARE EXPECTED HERE, AND
COULD BE MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA).
THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING, TURNING WINDS NORTHERLY AND THEN NORTHEASTERLY THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIME SHOULD BE WELL BELOW
SCA CRITERIA.
EXTENDED MARINE: A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTING THE LOCAL
WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT COULD BRING ANOTHER
PERIOD OF ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES COULD
BE NEEDED FOR GUSTS 25-30 KT AND SEAS 5-6 FT.
RIP CURRENTS: HIGHER-PERIOD SWELL (10-11 SECONDS) AND
INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST WILL RESULT
IN A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ALL BEACHES TODAY.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
BRS/BSH
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page