199
FXUS62 KCHS 091834
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
234 PM EDT SAT MAY 9 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ALL SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) ROUNDS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: ROUNDS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MONDAY.
THROUGH TONIGHT: ALOFT, THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN WITHIN
ZONAL FLOW WHILE AT THE SURFACE A STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL SIT
ALONG A WEST TO EAST ORIENTATION ALONG THE GULF COAST AND NORTH
FL. OVERALL, THERE REALLY ISN'T A NOTABLE FEATURE TO CONCENTRATE
OR FOCUS SHOWER AN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH THE PERIOD.
INSTEAD, THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO RESIDE IN A RELATIVELY MOIST
ENVIRONMENT WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RANGING FROM 1.3-1.5"
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST SC AND UP TO 1.5-1.7" ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE I-16 CORRIDOR. CURRENTLY, RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS REMNANT
STRATIFORM RAIN FROM A LARGE MCS TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST
TRACKING INTO SOUTHEAST GA FROM THE WEST. THE ENVIRONMENT IS
QUITE STABLE, THANKS TO WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND THE ARRIVING
STRATIFORM RAIN. THIS SHOULD KEEP ANY ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM OCCURRING, AND IF
ANYTHING DOES DEVELOP IT SHOULD BE ON THE WEAKER END OF THE
SPECTRUM. SO, THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN THROUGH THE EVENING WILL
BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-16, WHERE THE STRATIFORM RAIN IS MOVING
THROUGH CURRENTLY, WITH ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
ELSEWHERE. OVERNIGHT, MODEL GUIDANCE IS A BIT MIXED BUT
GENERALLY FAVORS A WEST TO EAST FEED OF OCCASIONAL SHOWERS
WITHIN THE CORRIDOR OF HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER. AGAIN, THERE
ISN'T AN IDENTIFIABLE FEATURE TO FOCUS OR ORGANIZE DEVELOPMENT
SO IT IS HARD TO CONFIDENTLY EXPECT ANYTHING OTHER THAN PASSING
SCATTERED SHOWERS. AS SUCH, THERE ISN'T REALLY ANY SEVERE THREAT
OR HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT.
SUNDAY: ZONAL FLOW WILL PREVAIL ALOFT, WHILE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
RIPPLES ACROSS THE ZONAL FLOW JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOCAL
AREA. AT THE SURFACE A STATIONARY FRONT WILL BE LOCATED JUST
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MIDDAY. A PLUME OF MOISTURE
WILL ADVECT NORTHWARD OF THE STATIONARY FRONT, PUTTING THE LOCAL
REGION IN AN AREA OF PWATS ~1.7", WHICH WOULD BE ABOVE THE 90TH
PERCENTILE ACCORDING TO SPC CLIMATOLOGY. WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
REACHING INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S, SOME INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP
INTO THE AFTERNOON. ML CAPE VALUES ARE FORECAST TO GENERALLY BE
AROUND 500-700 J/KG ACROSS THE REGION. THE COMBINATION OF THE
MOISTURE, INSTABILITY, AND THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE COULD
TRIGGER SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS. HOWEVER, PLACEMENT OF THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL LIKELY
LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION. AREAS ALONG THE
ALTAMAHA RIVER, GA WILL SEE THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
THERE IS A VERY LOW RISK ACROSS SE GA FOR A STRONG TO POSSIBLY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM TO DEVELOP, HOWEVER THE BEST SEVERE RISK
LOOKS TO BE FURTHER SOUTH, CLOSER IN PROXIMITY TO THE SHORTWAVE
ALOFT.
MONDAY: A SHIFT FROM ZONAL FLOW TO BROAD TROUGHING WILL DEVELOP
INTO MONDAY AS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS EASTWARD OVER THE
GREAT LAKES AND TOWARDS THE EAST COAST. ALONG THE SOUTHERN FLANK
OF THE BROAD TROUGH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG ACROSS THE DEEP
SOUTH MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE AND AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT, NUMEROUS TO
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE
REGION. PWATS ARE FORECAST TO REACH AS HIGH AS 1.8-2", WHICH
WOULD APPROACH THE DAILY MAX ACCORDING TO SPC CLIMATOLOGY.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW ML CAPE VALUES REACHING AROUND 1000-1500
J/KG. THE MOIST CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH THE INSTABILITY WILL
LEAD TO A RISK OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, WITH THE MAIN
HAZARD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THE 18Z TAF PERIOD BEGINS WITH VFR CONDITIONS AT KCHS, KJZI,
AND KSAV. AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN WILL MOVE THROUGH KSAV OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND WHILE VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL
THERE COULD BE SOME PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
WITH THE RAIN. ONCE THIS PASSES, THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOULD MOSTLY BRING ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA
WITH VFR CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES. OVERNIGHT, OVERALL
CONFIDENCE ISN'T PARTICULARLY HIGH IN THE FORECAST. THE AREA
WILL REMAIN IN A MOIST ENVIRONMENT WITH SHOWERS CAPABLE OF
DEVELOPING AT ALMOST ANY TIME. THERE ARE HINTS IN MODEL GUIDANCE
THAT AN AREA OF SHOWERS (AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM) WILL
DEVELOP AND MOVE THROUGH DURING THE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING HOURS.
HOWEVER, IT IS UNCLEAR HOW WIDESPREAD THIS AREA WILL BE OR IF IT
WILL BE MORE CONCENTRATED OFFSHORE. THERE ARE ALSO HINTS OF
MVFR OR LOWER CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ACROSS THE REGION. THE
GENERALLY TIME PERIOD OF CONCERN IS ROUGHLY FROM AROUND 06Z
THROUGH ABOUT 14Z FOR SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AND SHOWERS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
REGION ON MONDAY, BRINGING THE RISK OF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS FROM
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TUESDAY WITH
NO CONCERNS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT: OVERALL, QUIET CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL
WATERS. SOUTHWEST WINDS NO MORE THAN 10-15 KNOTS WITH SEAS
AVERAGING 2-3 FEET. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR OCCASIONAL
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD, AND THESE STORMS
COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING.
EXTENDED MARINE: A STATIONARY FRONT WILL LINGER ACROSS THE
LOCAL WATERS ON SUNDAY, WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH ON
MONDAY FOLLOWED BY BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE MONDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT,
REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GUSTS OF 25 KNOTS. GALE CONDITIONS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY IMPROVE
LATE TUESDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
BECOMES THE DOMINANT SYNOPTIC FEATURE.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
BSH/CPM
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