556
FXUS62 KCHS 291745
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1245 PM EST THU JAN 29 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE AVIATION SECTION WAS UPDATED FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN AN ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL EVENT ACROSS A PORTION OF THE SC LOWCOUNTRY AND SE
GEORGIA SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
- 2) UNCOMMONLY COLD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE
AREA THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH DANGEROUSLY COLD
CONDITIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN AN
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL EVENT ACROSS A PORTION OF THE SC
LOWCOUNTRY AND SE GEORGIA SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT.
ON SATURDAY, A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST OUT AHEAD OF A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH. WHILE THE SOUTHWARD EXTENT OF THE PRECIPITATION
SHIELD REMAINS UNCERTAIN SOMEWHERE NEAR THE ALTAMAHA RIVER
VALLEY, SCATTERED TO AREAS OF DRIZZLE/RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP THROUGHOUT THE DAY GIVEN WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT IN A WELL
SATURATED ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW
INCREASES IN STRENGTH, COOLER AIR IS FILTERED DOWN INTO THE
REGION, WITH NO WARM AIR ALOFT CAUSING ANY PRECIPITATION TYPE
HEADACHES, BRINGING A SWITCH FROM RAIN TO SNOW THROUGHOUT THE
AFTERNOON HOURS ON SATURDAY. THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE REMAINS
WELL SATURATED FOR A FEW HOURS SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING, AND WHEN COMBINED WITH THE STRONG FORCING FROM
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH, WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
TO SEE SNOWFALL RATES REACH UP INTO THE 0.5 TO 1 INCH PER HOUR
RANGE. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE GIVEN THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMNS
WELL BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE REGION, LEADING TO RATHER "DRY"
SNOWFALL AS SNOW-TO-LIQUID RATIOS NEAR THE 20:1 MARK. IN
ADDITION, SEEING SOME SIGNALS THAT INSTABILITY-DRIVEN FRONTAL
BANDING MAY FURTHER RESULT IN HIGHER SNOWFALL TOTALS, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA.
WITH NUMEROUS HOURS WHERE THE ENVIRONMENT IS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING AND SUSTAINING SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS, LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOWFALL CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKELY SATURDAY AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. WHILE OVERALL QPF AMOUNTS ARE LOOKING
TO REMAIN LIGHT AT MAYBE A TENTH OF AN INCH ACROSS SOUTHERN
SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA AND JUST OVER A QUARTER INCH ACROSS
NORTHERN BERKELEY AND CHARLESTON COUNTIES, THE COLD TEMPERATURES
AND THUS HIGH SNOW-TO-LIQUID RATIO HAS POTENTIAL TO CREATE SOME
IMPRESSIVE SNOWFALL TOTALS. AREAS ACROSS NORTHERN BERKELEY HAVE
A DECENT CHANCE (30-40%) FOR SEEING 4 INCHES OF SNOW, WHILE THE
REST OF THE TRI-COUNTY REGION LOOKS TO REMAIN IN THE 1 TO 3
INCH RANGE. ELSEWHERE ACROSS SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA, BETWEEN
HALF AN INCH TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED. ACROSS
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA, BETWEEN HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH IS EXPECTED
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-16 CORRIDOR, RISING INTO THE 1 TO 3
INCH RANGE HEADING FURTHER NORTH OF I-16 INTO THE JENKINS/SCREVEN
COUNTY AREA. REGARDLESS OF WHERE YOU ARE, THE "LIGHT AND DRY"
NATURE OF THE SNOW COMBINED WITH SOME BREEZY WINDS WILL LIKELY
LEAD TO LOWERED VISIBILITIES IN TANDEM WITH THE ACCUMULATING
SNOW, SO BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR DIFFICULT TRAVEL CONDITIONS.
KEY MESSAGE 2: UNCOMMONLY COLD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
IMPACT THE AREA THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
DANGEROUSLY COLD CONDITIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
MORNING.
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
UNCOMMONLY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL IMPACT SOUTHEAST GA AND
SOUTHEAST SC THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE
CONTINUES TO BE EXCELLENT MODEL AGREEMENT CONCERNING THE COLD
AIR, INCLUDING INDICATIONS OF TEMPERATURES ON THE ORDER OF 5
STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL IN THE COLUMN ACROSS THE REGION
FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. A SHOT OF VERY COLD AIR WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST AND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE COLDEST NIGHT IS EXPECTED
TO OCCUR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WHEN WIDESPREAD
TEENS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. IN FACT, WE COOLED
THE FORECAST LOW FROM THE DETERMINISTIC NBM BY BLENDING IN THE
EVEN COLDER NBM50 AS THE DETERMINISTIC VALUES CONTINUE TO RUN
OUTSIDE THE HIGH END OF THE IQR. ALSO, THE PRESENCE OF SNOW ON
THE GROUND SHOULD PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR EVEN LOWER TEMPERATURES.
THE FORECAST NOW ADVERTISES LOW TO MID TEENS INLAND AND UPPER
TEENS ALONG THE COAST. WHEN COMBINED WITH PERSISTENT NORTHWEST
WINDS GUSTING INTO THE 20-25 MPH RANGE, WIND CHILLS ARE FORECAST
TO PLUNGE INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR SUNDAY MORNING. WITH THIS
IN MIND, WE HAVE ISSUED AN EXTREME COLD WATCH FOR ALL OF
SOUTHEAST GA AND SOUTHEAST SC FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH
MIDDAY SUNDAY.
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING, WIND CHILLS ARE EXPECTED
TO FALL WELL INTO THE TEENS. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE A COUPLE
OF DEGREES HIGHER THAN THE NIGHT BEFORE, BUT WINDS WILL BE
SIGNIFICANTLY LESS WHICH WILL YIELD HIGHER WIND CHILL VALUES. A
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY BE NEEDED. TUESDAY
MORNING WILL AGAIN BE COLD, BUT WIND CHILLS WILL BE EVEN HIGHER.
THERE COULD BE A FEW ISOLATED AREAS WITH WIND CHILLS DOWN TO
AROUND 20 DEGREES, BUT A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY LOOKS LESS
LIKELY.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KCHS, KJZI, AND KSAV THROUGH 18Z
FRIDAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS WILL INCREASE FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE COAST. THERE IS ALSO
INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS AT THE TERMINALS.
MARINE
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY: OVERALL, QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY. WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN 10 KNOTS OR LESS WITH SEAS 1-2 FEET.
THE MAIN TIME PERIOD OF CONCERN FOR MARINE CONDITIONS WILL
START EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
AND STRENGTHENS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
STRENGTHEN SATURDAY AND LIKELY PEAK SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN IMPROVE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE
LOW PULLS AWAY AND THE GRADIENT WEAKENS.
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT WIDESPREAD GALES WILL IMPACT THE
LOCAL WATERS STARTING SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND POTENTIALLY
CONTINUING INTO EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THEREFORE, A GALE WATCH
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL WATERS (NOT INCLUDING CHARLESTON HARBOR)
FOR GUSTS UP TO AROUND 40 KNOTS. GUSTS COULD BE CLOSE TO GALE
FORCE FOR CHARLESTON HARBOR AS WELL, BUT CONFIDENCE ISN'T QUITE
HIGH ENOUGH FOR A WATCH THERE. IF A GALE WARNING IS EVENTUALLY
ISSUED, A PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED LATER
SUNDAY AND THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT ONCE THE GALES COME TO AN END
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
CLIMATE
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES:
JANUARY 31:
KCHS: 15/1966
KCXM: 19/1966
KSAV: 16/1966
FEBRUARY 1:
KCHS: 21/1977
KCXM: 23/1900
KSAV: 23/1977
FEBRUARY 2:
KCHS: 19/1980
KCXM: 17/1917
KSAV: 18/1917
RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES:
JANUARY 31:
KCHS: 36/1948
KCXM: 34/1936
KSAV: 37/1909
FEBRUARY 1:
KCHS: 38/1980
KCXM: 36/1900
KSAV: 38/1900
FEBRUARY 2:
KCHS: 38/1980
KCXM: 38/1898
KSAV: 38/1951
RECORD SNOWFALL:
JANUARY 31:
KCHS: 0.6/1977
KSAV: 1.3/1977
FEBRUARY 1:
KCHS: NO RECORD ESTABLISHED
KSAV: NO RECORD ESTABLISHED
EQUIPMENT
THE KCLX RADAR REMAINS OUT OF SERVICE. WE HOPE TO HAVE THE
RADAR RESTORED BY SATURDAY. USERS SHOULD USE ADJACENT WSR-88D
SITES, INCLUDING KCAE, KLTX, KJAX, KVAX AND KJGX.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON FOR GAZ087-088-099>101.
EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING FOR GAZ087-088-099>101-114>119-137>141.
SC...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON FOR SCZ040-042>045-047>052.
EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING FOR SCZ040-042>045-047>052.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON
FOR AMZ350-352-354-374.
APT/BSH
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