107
FXUS62 KCHS 011047
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
547 AM EST SAT FEB 1 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
TODAY: THE COLD FRONT IS NOW WELL OFFSHORE WITH DRIER AIR
ADVECTING INTO THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT
LAKES WILL BUILD SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THROUGH THE DAY,
TAKING ON MORE OF A COLD AIR DAMMING CONFIGURATION CLOSER TO
SUNSET. A PERSISTENT BAND OF CIRRUS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SUBTROPICAL JET LOOKS TO REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE AREA
RESULTING IN VARIOUS DEGREES OF HIGH CLOUDINESS. IT WILL BE
ANOTHER WARM MID-WINTER DAY WITH HIGHS POISED TO TOP OUT IN THE
UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S. A WEAK SEA BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO FORM
ALONG THE BEACHES BY MID-AFTERNOON AND BEGIN A SLOW TREK
INLAND. THIS COUPLED WITH CHILLY SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL
KEEP BEACH LOCATIONS CONSIDERABLY COOLER.
TONIGHT: THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO TIGHTEN OVERNIGHT
AS HIGH PRESSURE WEDGES SOUTH ACROSS THE CAROLINA
PIEDMONT/COASTAL PLAIN AND A WEAK COASTAL THROUGH FORMS JUST
OFFSHORE. SOME DEGREE OF HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL PERSIST WITH THE
TAIL END OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET NOT EXITING UNTIL LATE, BUT WEAK
ISENTROPIC ASCENT ACROSS THE SHARPENING COASTAL TROUGH OFFSHORE
AND ATOP THE BUILDING WEDGE WILL SUPPORT THE FORMATION OF SOME
MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS LATE. ANY ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY LOOKS TO
REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE, BUT BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ALONG
THE COAST PRIOR TO SUNRISE, ESPECIALLY FROM TYBEE ISLAND NORTH
ALONG MUCH OF THE LOWER SOUTH CAROLINA BEACHES. LOWS WILL FALL
INTO THE LOWER-MID 40S INLAND WITH UPPER 40S/NEAR 50 AT THE
BEACHES.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
A WEAK COLD AIR DAMMING REGIME WILL BE IN PLACE ON SUNDAY AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS POSITIONED JUST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST. COLD AIR ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A MODERATE NORTHEAST
FLOW WILL RESULT IN A RELATIVELY LARGE RANGE IN HIGH TEMPS WITH
UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 ALONG THE SANTEE RIVER IN SC WHILE FAR
SOUTHERN GA AREAS CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 70S.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL FEATURE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WHILE THE
SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST AND SETS UP OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND THE RESULTING THICKNESS
ADVECTION WILL YIELD ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS BOTH DAYS WITH HIGHS
WELL INTO THE 70S. INCREASING SURFACE DEWPOINTS MOVING OVER
RELATIVELY COOL SHELF WATERS COULD ALLOW SEA FOG DEVELOPMENT.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
A STRONG 500 MB RIDGE CENTERED OVER CUBA WILL REMAIN OVER THE
DEEP SOUTH MID TO LATE WEEK WHILE BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS TO THE EAST. THE COMBINATION OF STEADY SOUTH WINDS,
PLENTY OF INSOLATION, AND MILD THICKNESSES SHOULD RESULT IN VERY
WARM TEMPERATURES. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S WHILE
HIGHS WILL FREQUENTLY REACH THE LOW 80S. WE COULD EVEN REACH
DAILY RECORD HIGHS ON SOME OCCASIONS. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
COULD APPROACH THE AREA ON FRIDAY.
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
01/12Z TAF DISCUSSION:
KCHS/KJZI/KSAV: VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME LOW/MID-LEVEL
CLOUDINESS WILL INCREASE AT KCHS AND KJZI CLOSER TO DAYBREAK
SUNDAY AS A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS OFFSHORE.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS POSSIBLE
DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS.
MARINE
TODAY: CONDITIONS WILL STEADILY IMPROVE ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS THIS MORNING WITH WINDS AND/OR SEAS DROPPING BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS BETWEEN 6-9 AM. OFFSHORE WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY TURN ONSHORE THIS AFTERNOON AS A WEAK SEA BREEZE
DEVELOPS AND HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE NORTH. SPEEDS WILL
AVERAGE 10 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 2-3 FT.
TONIGHT: NORTHEAST WINDS WILL STEADILY INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT
IN RESPONSE TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
STRENGTHENING INLAND WEDGE AND A COASTAL TROUGH JUST OFFSHORE.
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KT ACROSS THE SOUTH SANTEE-EDISTO
BEACH NEARSHORE LEG WITH 10-15 KT ELSEWHERE. A FEW GUSTS TO 25
KT COULD OCCUR IN THE SOUTH SANTEE-EDISTO BEACH NEARSHORE LEG,
BUT DURATIONS SHOULD REMAIN LOW ENOUGH NOT TO REACH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 3-5 FT ALONG THE CHARLESTON
COUNTY COAST WITH 2-4 FT ELSEWHERE.
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL. ON SUNDAY
MORNING WE COULD SEE SOME GUSTS NEAR 25 KT IN THE CHARLESTON
NEARSHORE WATERS DUE TO THE MODERATE NORTHEAST GRADIENT.
OTHERWISE THE SURFACE HIGH BEING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL
KEEP WINDS/SEAS WELL BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS IN THE LOCAL WATERS.
THE ONLY OTHER CONCERN IS POSSIBLE SEA FOG BEGINNING SUNDAY
NIGHT OR MONDAY AS HIGHER DEWPOINTS MOVE ACROSS WATER TEMPS
AROUND 50 DEGREES.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
FEBRUARY 4:
KSAV: 81/1990
FEBRUARY 5:
KSAV: 82/2008
FEBRUARY 6:
KCHS: 78/2019
KSAV: 82/2008
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ350.
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