515
FXUS62 KCHS 140015
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
815 PM EDT TUE OCT 13 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ALL SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH FRIDAY.
- 2) EXPECT GUSTY WINDS AND TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL THIS
WEEKEND BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING NEAR THE GULF WILL SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE
REGION THURSDAY, AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS OVERHEAD. THUS, EXPECT
DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO PREVAIL FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK WITH THE AID OF SUNNY SKIES. CURRENTLY
HAVE HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S, WHICH IS 7-9 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. A FEW LOCATIONS MAY EVEN TAKE A SHOT
AT 90 DEGREES, WHICH COULD PUT A FEW OF OUR RECORD HIGHS IN JEOPARDY
(SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW). UPPER LEVEL PATTERN SHIFTS HEADING INTO
THE WEEKEND, AS A STRONG COLD FRONT DIVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS
AND INTO OUR AREA BY SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME WILL BE
NOTABLY COOLER, AS HIGHS ONLY RISE INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO FEEL QUITE CRISP, ESPECIALLY SUNDAY
MORNING, AS VALUES FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S TO 50S.
KEY MESSAGE 2: EXPECT GUSTY WINDS AND TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL
THIS WEEKEND BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE SC
LOWCOUNTRY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES THAT IT SHOULD BE A DRY COLD FRONT, ONLY
SPRINKLES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CHS TRI-COUNTY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. GFS H85 TEMPERATURES OVER LAKE MOULTRIE
COOLS BY 10 DEGREES BETWEEN 0Z SAT TO 0Z SUN. AS A RESULT,
TEMPERATURE WILL FALL WELL BELOW NORMAL ON SAT, WITH HIGHS RANGING
AROUND 70 DEGREES. IN ADDITION, NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE
REGION WILL BE BREEZY, WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, THE CENTER OF A 1035 MB HIGH WILL SETTLE
OVER VA BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY. THE SFC HIGH WILL RIDGE SW ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS AND GEORGIA ON SUNDAY. NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE PERIOD, GENERALLY BETWEEN 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 20 TO 25
MPH. THE NORTH WINDS WILL MAINTAIN COOL LLVL THICKNESSES ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. USING A BLEND OF GUIDANCE, LOW TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY
ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S INLAND TO THE MID TO UPPER
50S ALONG THE COAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM
AROUND 70 DEGREES ACROSS THE LOWCOUNTRY TO THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS
SE GA.
THE CENTER OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD SHIFT OVER OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST ON MONDAY, RESULTING IN WINDS TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT FROM
THE EAST. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CWA SHOULD WARM TO AROUND
SEASONABLE NORMALS, MID TO UPPER 70S. LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED FOR
TUESDAY.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
00Z TAFS: VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING AND INTO
THE OVERNIGHT. LATEST GUIDANCE STILL HINTS THAT A BRIEF PERIOD
OF LOW STRATUS AND FOG MAY OCCUR PRIOR TO DAYBREAK. LIKE THE
LAST ISSUANCE, HAVE CONTINUED TO CARRY SHALLOW GROUND FOG AROUND
09Z FOR ALL TAF SITES AND HAVE ADDED A TEMPO FOR A BRIEF PERIOD
OF IFR TO VLIFR VSBYS AND CIGS RIGHT AROUND DAYBREAK AT ALL
SITES. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN QUICKLY AFTER DAYBREAK WITH
LIGHT WINDS PREVAILING THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: VFR.
MARINE
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY: HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL
WATERS THROUGH THE WEEK AND YIELD QUIET CONDITIONS. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN 10 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. WE
SHOULD START TO SEE INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FRIDAY AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. SEAS SHOULD AVERAGE AROUND 2
FEET THROUGH THE WEEK.
THIS WEEKEND: A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. AFTER THE FRONT LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT, WINDS WILL VEER FROM THE NORTH AND STRENGTH TO 25 TO 30 KTS
WITH GALE WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE NEARSHORE AND OUTER SC/GA WATERS.
GALE WATCHES ARE POSSIBLE FOR ALL MARINE ZONES OUTSIDE THE
CHARLESTON HARBOR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY,
POSSIBLY LONGER ACROSS THE GA WATERS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ARE
LIKELY FOR THE CHARLESTON HARBOR, BEGINNING LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. AS A
RESULT, WAVE HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TO 7 TO 10 FT ON
SATURDAY, GRADUALLY BUILDING TO 8 TO 12 FT BY SUNDAY. CONDITIONS MAY
BEGIN TO IMPROVE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
OCTOBER 13:
KSAV: 90/2020
OCTOBER 14:
KCHS: 88/2024
KCXM: 86/2024
KSAV: 88/2024
OCTOBER 15:
KCHS: 87/2021
KSAV: 90/1925
OCTOBER 16:
KCXM: 88/2018
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
BLACK/NED/SST
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