702
FXUS62 KCHS 241422
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
922 AM EST TUE FEB 24 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE COLD WEATHER KEY MESSAGE WAS REMOVED.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) A PASSING FRONT WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD RAINFALL FROM
LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: A PASSING FRONT WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL FROM LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
ALOFT, EXPECT BROAD MID-LVL TROUGHING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
MID- SOUTH ON THURSDAY, AND THEN TRACK TOWARDS THE EASTERN
SEABOARD OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY. AT THE SURFACE, A SURFACE LOW
WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH ON THURSDAY WITH
AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. EXPECT MOISTURE LVLS TO RETURN TO THE
REGION ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT. IT'S FAIRLY
HIGH MODEL AGREEMENT THAT SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD DEVELOP IN
THE FAR INLAND COUNTIES ON THURSDAY MORNING AND REMAIN IN THAT
GENERAL AREA THROUGH THE EVENING, BEFORE OVERSPREADING INTO THE
REST OF THE REGION ON THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THERE
REMAINS A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY OF HOW QUICKLY THE RAINFALL SHOULD
CLEAR OFF THE COASTLINE AS THIS TIMEFRAME RANGES FROM FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. SOME INSTABILITY COULD BE PRESENT
AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON FRIDAY, THEREFORE THE MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN NOTED IN THE FORECAST. IT'S STILL TOO
EARLY IN THE FORECAST TO DISCUSS RAINFALL AMOUNTS, HOWEVER
FLOODING RAINS DOES NOT SEEM TO JUMP OUT AT THE MOMENT (ESP.
WITH THE ONGOING DROUGHT). HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD.
AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT CHS/JZI/SAV TERMINALS THROUGH 12Z
WEDNESDAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH
AT LEAST THURSDAY. A FRONT SHOULD BRING FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. OCCASIONAL FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS COULD
PERSIST INTO SATURDAY.
MARINE
TODAY AND TONIGHT: HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WEST OF THE REGION
WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE GULF, THEN GRADUALLY
SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE ATLANTIC THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT,
FAVORING WINDS AND SEAS THAT REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS ACROSS ALL LOCAL WATERS. THERE ARE SOME HINTS OF THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT INTENSIFYING LATE NIGHT AS TROUGHING PASSES TO
THE NORTH, WHICH COULD SUPPORT SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING UP TO
20-25 KT WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF DAYBREAK WHILE SEAS BUILD UP TO
3-5 FT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES COULD EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED ACROSS
A PORTION OF LOCAL WATERS HEADING INTO DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.
WEDNESDAY: SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL LIKELY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LVLS ACROSS THE SOUTH CAROLINA NEARSHORE WATERS AND
THE OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS ON WEDNESDAY IN RESPONSE TO A RE-
TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. ALSO, WITH SOME SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTERLY SWELL BUILDING INTO THE WATERS, THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY OF SOME 6 FOOTERS REACHING INTO THE NEARSHORE
CHARLESTON WATERS AND OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS ON WEDNESDAY AS
WELL.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY: AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST ON
THURSDAY WILL YIELD ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS ACROSS MOST OF THE
LOCAL WATERS AND CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY WARRANT THE NEED FOR
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTERLY SWELL SHOULD BUILD INTO THE LOCAL WATERS AGAIN ON
THURSDAY MORN. AND SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 4 TO 6 FT THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. EXPECT THE FRONT SHIFTS OFFSHORE BY FRIDAY NIGHT
AND MARINE CONDITIONS SUBSIDE.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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