573
FXUS62 KCHS 121831
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
231 PM EDT TUE MAY 12 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE AVIATION SECTION WAS UPDATED FOR THE 18Z TAFS. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE CHARLESTON HARBOR UNTIL THIS
EVENING.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA COAST THROUGH THE EVENING, WITH A MODERATE RISK FOR THE
SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA BEACHES.
- 2) A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION ON THURSDAY
USHERING DRY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR AND/OR ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA COAST THROUGH THE EVENING, WITH A MODERATE RISK
FOR THE SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA BEACHES.
BREEZY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS COMBINED WITH A STRONG LONGSHORE CURRENT
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT DANGEROUS RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS AT THE
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA BEACHES THROUGH THE EVENING. RECENT OBSERVATIONS
(AS OF 17Z) INDICATE BREAKERS NEAR 3 TO 5 FT ACROSS SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA AS EAST-NORTHEASTERLY SWELL CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE
LOCAL WATERS THROUGH THE REST OF THE EVENING. THE SOUTHEAST SOUTH
CAROLINA COASTLINE MAINTAINS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS THROUGH
THE EVENING.
KEY MESSAGE 2: A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION ON
THURSDAY USHERING DRY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR AND/OR ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
AS A MID-LVL TROUGH SWEEPS DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES TOWARDS THE MID-
ATLANTIC ON WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY, AN ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL TRAVERSE ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY MORNING. LINGERING
MOISTURE (PWATS NEAR 1.2 TO 1.5 INCHES) COMBINED WITH WEAK CYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED MID-LVL TROUGH
PASSING OVERHEAD WILL LIKELY YIELD ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS ON
WEDNESDAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. THIS WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD BE
ACCOMPANIED WITH VERY LITTLE RAINFALL (IF ANY) AND WILL PUSH DRIER
THAN NORMAL WEATHER CONDITIONS INTO THE SOUTHEAST. FORECAST NOTES RH
VALUES FALLING INTO CRITICAL VALUES (25-30%) AWAY FROM THE COASTLINE
ON THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND, HOWEVER WIND SPEEDS WILL NOT BE
BREEZY ENOUGH TO RAISE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. TEMPERATURES WILL
REACH INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, FOLLOWED BY
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S ON SATURDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
12/18Z TAFS:
KCHS/KJZI: AS HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS ACROSS SOUTHEAST SOUTH
CAROLINA, VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH 13/12Z
WEDNESDAY. EXPECT BREEZY EAST-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS (NEAR 20-22 KT)
TO PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING.
KSAV: LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING AS
THE FRONT LINGERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN FLORIDA. THUS, VCSH
HAS BEEN MAINTAINED UNTIL 13/02Z. BREEZY EAST-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
(NEAR 20 KT) WAS NOTED IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE EVENING AS WELL.
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 13/07Z, THEREAFTER MVFR CEILINGS
BETWEEN 2000-3000 FT WILL PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL EARLY
WEDNESDAY, THEN THERE COULD BE A RISK OF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY MORNING.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAINS IN EFFECT ACROSS ALL
MARINE ZONES (INCLUDING THE CHARLESTON HARBOR) AS BREEZY EAST-
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS PERSIST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. EAST-
SOUTHEASTERLY SWELL CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH
THE REST OF THE EVENING WITH SEAS RANGING FROM 5 TO 7 FT ACROSS THE
NEARSHORE WATERS (0-20 NM) AND 6 TO 8 FT ACROSS THE OUTER GEORGIA
WATERS (20-60 NM). MARINE CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE LATE
TONIGHT AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE. THE SCA FOR THE
CHARLESTON HARBOR WILL END AT 6PM, AND THEN THE NEARSHORE WATERS
LATE TONIGHT.
EXTENDED MARINE: EXPECT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OFFSHORE ON
WEDNESDAY, HOWEVER VERY MINIMAL MARINE IMPACTS WILL OCCUR FROM THIS.
THE REMAINING SCA ACROSS THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS WILL HOLD ON UNTIL
WEDNESDAY EARLY AFTERNOON AS SOME 6 FOOTERS LINGER. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL SWEEP OVER THE WATERS ON THURSDAY MORNING, AND THEN HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THEREAFTER.
RIP CURRENTS: SEE KEY MESSAGE #1 ADDRESSING TODAY.
WEDNESDAY: THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TOMORROW (5/13)
AT ALL BEACHES AS THE COMBINATION OF STRONG TO GUSTY NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS WILL YIELD AN INCREASED THREAT OF RIP
CURRENTS. COMPARING THE PARAMETERS TO A COUPLE DIFFERENT MODELS AND
TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE OBSERVATIONS SEEN FROM TODAY, THE RISK FOR
THE SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA BEACHES WAS INCREASED FROM A LOW TO
MODERATE RISK FOR TOMORROW. THE MODERATE RISK FOR THE SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA BEACHES WAS MAINTAINED, HOWEVER THE RCMOS WAS SUGGESTING
SOME INDICATION THAT THERE COULD BE A NEED FOR A HIGH RISK TOMORROW.
THIS WILL NEED TO BE RE-EVALUATED OVERNIGHT.
THURSDAY: THERE IS A LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GAZ217-
219-239-241.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ340.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ360-362.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ364.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ384.
DENNIS
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