601
FXUS62 KCHS 012129
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
429 PM EST SUN FEB 1 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS
EVENING TO 9 AM MONDAY. GIVEN THE ONGOING MELTING AND FORECAST
COLD TEMPERATURE TONIGHT, WE MAY HIGHLIGHT THE RISK OF BLACK ICE
FROM SCREVEN TO ALLENDALE COUNTIES SOUTH TO BEAUFORT COUNTY
TONIGHT. THIS WOULD BE DOWN VIA A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) COLD TEMPERATURES WITH VERY LOW WIND CHILLS ACROSS THE SC
LOWCOUNTRY AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
- 2) A COLD FRONT WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO THE SOUTH CAROLINA
LOWCOUNTRY AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: COLD TEMPERATURES WITH VERY LOW WIND CHILLS
ACROSS THE SC LOWCOUNTRY AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING.
VISIBLE SATELLITE THIS AFTERNOON INDICATES THAT THE MAJORITY OF
THE SNOWFALL FROM LAST NIGHT HAS MELTED. THERE APPEARS SNOW ON
THE GROUND ALONG A LINE FROM MILLHAVEN, GA SOUTHEAST ACROSS
FURMAN, SC TO RICETOWN, SC. SOME SNOW ALSO APPEARS ON SATELLITE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN DORCHESTER AND BERKELEY COUNTIES.
THE REMAINING SNOWPACK SHOULD PROVIDE LITTLE IMPACT ON OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES. USING A BLEND OF TEMPERATURES, LOWS ARE GENERALLY
EXPECTED TO RANGE IN THE TEENS TO LOW 20S. THE COLD
TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH IS
EXPECTED TO RESULT IN WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE TEENS. A COLD
WEATHER ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO
9 AM MONDAY. GIVEN THE ONGOING MELTING AND FORECAST COLD
TEMPERATURE TONIGHT, WE MAY HIGHLIGHT THE RISK OF BLACK ICE FROM
SCREVEN TO ALLENDALE COUNTIES SOUTH TO BEAUFORT COUNTY TONIGHT.
THIS WOULD BE DOWN VIA A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT.
MONDAY NIGHT, CLOUD COVER SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM THE
WEST WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO COOL
INTO THE MID 20S. GIVEN LIGHT WINDS, WIND CHILL VALUES SHOULD
REMAIN ABOVE 20 DEGREES.
KEY MESSAGE 2: A COLD FRONT WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO THE
SOUTH CAROLINA LOWCOUNTRY AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
A POSITIVELY TILTED LONG-WAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE FORECAST
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT, PASSING TO THE EAST BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
AT THE SFC, LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG A COLD
FRONT, TRACKING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. DURING THE MID-WEEK.
THIS SYSTEM SHOULD TAP INTO DEEP MOISTURE SOURCED OVER THE GULF,
SUPPORTING A THICK BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS. NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ON
WEDNESDAY, DEPARTING BY SUNRISE THURSDAY. TEMPERATURE DURING THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT ARE FORECAST TO SUPPORT ONLY PLAIN
RAIN. STORM TOTAL QPF SHOULD BE IN THE 0.1-0.25" RANGE.
AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE 18Z TAF PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: A COLD FRONT MAY BRING FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS WEDNESDAY, MAINLY DUE TO RAIN SHOWERS.
MARINE
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY, MARINE ZONES WILL REMAIN BETWEEN A
DEPARTING NOR'EASTER AND HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT, WITH HIGH
PRESSURE ARRIVING ON MONDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ACROSS THE
CHS AND NEARSHORE WATERS WILL END BY LATE TONIGHT AS WINDS AND
SEAS SUBSIDE. THE OUTER GA WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE
SEAS AS HIGH AS 6 FT THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON MONDAY.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
OVER FL ON TUESDAY, SHIFTING OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON
WEDNESDAY, QUICKLY MOVING THROUGH AND THEN OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE DISTANT WEST ON
THURSDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF
OUR WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
CLIMATE
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES:
FEBRUARY 1: (NEW RECORD LOW SET ALL STATIONS SUNDAY MORNING.)
KCHS: 21/1977
KCXM: 23/1900
KSAV: 23/1977
FEBRUARY 2:
KCHS: 19/1980
KCXM: 17/1917
KSAV: 18/1917
RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES:
FEBRUARY 1:
KCHS: 38/1980
KCXM: 36/1900
KSAV: 38/1900
RECORD SNOWFALL:
JANUARY 31:
KCHS: 0.6/1977 (BROKEN, 0.7 OBSERVED YESTERDAY)
FEBRUARY 1:
KCHS: NONE ESTABLISHED (BROKEN, 0.4 OBSERVED TODAY)
EQUIPMENT
THE KCLX RADAR IS OPERATIONAL, BUT COULD GO DOWN AT ANY TIME.
ADDITIONAL REPAIRS ARE NEEDED.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST MONDAY FOR GAZ087-088-
099>101-114>119-137>141.
SC...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST MONDAY FOR SCZ040-042>045-
047>052.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ350.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ374.
NED
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