435
FXUS62 KCHS 110719
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
319 AM EDT FRI OCT 11 2024
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK, FOLLOWED BY
MORE HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
TODAY: HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE REGION AS A BROAD
SOUTHERN STREAM MID-LEVEL TROUGH HOLDS OVER THE DEEP SOUTH. A
COOL, DRY CANADIAN AIRMASS WILL KEEP FALL-LIKE CONDITIONS IN
PLACE. IT WILL REMAIN BREEZY ALONG/NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST THIS
MORNING, BUT SPEEDS WILL STEADILY DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY.
FULL INSOLATION LOW-LEVEL THICKNESS SCHEMES SUPPORT HIGHS IN
THE MID 70S WHICH IS IN LINE WITH VARIOUS 11/00Z STATISTICAL
PACKAGES.
TONIGHT: THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL DECOUPLE QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET
AS THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH SETTLES NEAR THE CSRA. THE
COMBINATION OF CLEAR SKIES, LOW DEWPOINTS AND CALM WINDS WILL
SUPPORT STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH LOWS POISED TO DROP INTO
THE MID 40S INLAND WITH LOWER 60S AT THE BEACHES.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
GRADUALLY WEAKENING IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
THE FRONT SHOULD STAY JUST OUTSIDE OF THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH THE
DAY MONDAY. DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE WILL PRECLUDE ANY RAINFALL,
WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER AS WELL. TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S SATURDAY
WARMING TO THE MID 80S BY MONDAY. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM AROUND 50 INLAND TO AROUND 60 AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE MORE MILD, MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW
60S.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL PIVOT ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS EARLY IN
THE PERIOD, HELPING TO SEND A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA.
CONSENSUS WOULD INDICATE A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE, SO NO
MENTIONABLE POPS ARE IN THE FORECAST. COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN ITS WAKE FOR MID TO LATE WEEK. PERHAPS THE MOST
NOTABLE ASPECT OF THE FORECAST WILL BE THE UNSEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WEDNESDAY COULD TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO MID
60S, 10-15 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO. LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE 40S
ACROSS MANY LOCATIONS.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
11/06Z TAF DISCUSSION:
KCHS/KJZI/KSAV: VFR THROUGH 12/06Z.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: PREVAILING VFR.
MARINE
TODAY: WINDS WILL STEADILY DIMINISH TODAY AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN INLAND HIGH PRESSURE AND POST TROPICAL CYCLONE
MILTON RELAXES. THE RISK FOR FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE FORCE HAS
DIMINISHED OVER THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATERS FROM 20-60 NM
OFFSHORE, SO THE GALE WARNING HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY. ELSEWHERE, SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN
FORCE FOR ALL NEARSHORE LEGS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF CHARLESTON
HARBOR DUE TO A COMBINATION OF BOTH WINDS AND SEAS. NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL AVERAGE 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT EARLY, THEN
DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT WITHIN 20 NM AND 15-20 KT FROM 20-60 NM
OFF THE GEORGIA COAST THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE 3-5 FT,
EXCEPT 6-9 FT OVER THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATERS 20-60 NM OUT.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE NEARSHORE LEGS FROM SOUTH SANTEE
TO SAVANNAH OUT 20 NM ARE SET TO EXPIRE AT 6 PM.
TONIGHT: NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL SETTLE TO AROUND 10 KT
OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES NEAR THE CSRA. SEAS WILL DROP
BELOW THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SEA CRITERIA OF 6 FT BY MID-
EVENING FOR THE GEORGIA NEARSHORE LEG FROM SAVANNAH TO ALTAMAHA
SOUND OUT 20 NM. SEAS BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WILL RANGE 3-5
FT WITHIN 20 NM AND 5-7 FT IN THE GEORGIA WATERS OUT 20-60 NM
WHERE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAIN IN FORCE THROUGH THE NIGHT.
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE OUTER GEORGIA
WATERS FOR LINGERING 6 FOOT SEAS SHOULD COME DOWN BY LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, NO MARINE CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED.
THE NEXT TIME PERIOD OF CONCERN WILL BE MID WEEK FOLLOWING THE
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE POSSIBLE
FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS.
RIP CURRENTS: LINGERING BACKSWELL AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ALONG
THE BEACHES THIS MORNING WILL KEEP THE RIP CURRENT RISK INTO
THE HIGH CATEGORY THROUGH THIS EVENING. CONTINUED LONG PERIOD
SWELL WILL SUPPORT A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS FOR ALL
BEACHES ON SATURDAY. AN ELEVATED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS COULD
LINGER INTO SUNDAY.
HIGH SURF: THE RISK FOR BREAKING WAVES OF 5 FT OR GREATER SHOULD
END BY SUNRISE. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR ALL BEACHES
THROUGH 8 AM.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
THE THREAT FOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL INCREASE NEXT WEEK DUE TO
THE UPCOMING FULL MOON AND PERIGEE. THE TIME PERIOD OF GREATEST
CONCERN IS MID TO LATE WEEK WHEN ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE HIGHEST
AND WINDS ARE MORE FAVORABLE. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES WILL BE
POSSIBLE ALONG THE ENTIRE SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA COAST.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR GAZ117-119-139-
141.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR GAZ117-119-
139-141.
SC...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR SCZ048>051.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR SCZ048>051.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ350-
352.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ354.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ374.
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