825
FXUS62 KCHS 061123
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
623 AM EST THU NOV 6 2025
SYNOPSIS
A DRY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY, WITH
CONDITIONS WARMING HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. A STRONGER COLD
FRONT WILL THEN DIVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT BRINGING
MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS TO THE AREA NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
TODAY: ALOFT, ZONAL FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION. AT THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WILL PUSH
A BACKDOOR INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTH IN THE MORNING
WITH THE HIGH BECOMING CENTERED ACROSS THE VA TIDEWATER AND NC
OUTER BANKS BY THE AFTERNOON. OTHER THAN A BIT OF THIN CIRRUS TO
THE SOUTH, CLEAR SKIES SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY WITH DRY
CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A TOUCH COOLER THAN WEDNESDAY,
WITH LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS SOUTHEAST SC AND UPPER 70S FOR
SOUTHEAST GA.
TONIGHT: THE HIGH WILL REMAIN POSITIONED ACROSS THE VA
TIDEWATER, THE NC OUTER BANKS, AND THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS
WHILE RIDGING DOWN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A COASTAL TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO TAKE SHAPE OFFSHORE AND ALL HI-RES MODEL SOLUTIONS
SHOW SHOWER DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE.
HOWEVER, THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO THE COASTAL
WATERS AND LAND AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY. IF THERE WERE A
LOCATION WHERE AN ISOLATED SHOWER CAN'T BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT
IT WOULD BE THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST LATE IN THE OVERNIGHT.
OTHERWISE, EXPECT A QUIET NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S
INLAND RANGING TO THE UPPER 50S ALONG THE COAST.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE JAMES BAY STRENGTHENS BY FRIDAY, WITH
ZONAL FLOW OVERHEAD STARTING TO AMPLIFY. MEANWHILE, AT THE SFC,
SHOULD SEE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATE - KEEPING CONDITIONS DRY
ACROSS OUR AREA. THUS, WITH THE AID OF SUNNY SKIES AND
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS, HAVE AFTERNOON HIGHS RISING INTO THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S.
OTHERWISE, EXPECT WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE OVER
THE WEEKEND, WITH CLOUD COVER GRADUALLY INCREASING SUNDAY AHEAD
OF AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT. SIMILAR TO FRIDAY, WILL SEE
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS PREVAIL, ALLOWING MOISTURE RICH AIR TO
ADVECT ACROSS THE REGION. AS A RESULT, WILL SEE DEWPOINTS RISE
INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S. SATURDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO BE FAIRLY MILD, AS
TEMPERATURES ONLY FALL INTO THE LOWER 60S.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS NOTED IN DAYS PAST, WILL SEE A STRONGER, MORE PRONOUNCED
COLD FRONT DIVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY EVENING. POPS FOR THIS
SYSTEM REMAIN QUITE MEAGER, WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES (15-20%)
NOTED. OVERALL SOUNDINGS ALSO REMAIN FAIRLY DRY, SUGGESTING THAT
MEANINGFUL RAINFALL WILL BE HARD TO COME BY.
RATHER, THE MORE NOTABLE STORY WITH THIS FRONT WILL BE THE
DRAMATIC COOL DOWN HEADING INTO THE NEW WEEK. WITH THE AID OF
BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AND STRONG CAA IN THE WAKE OF FROPA,
ONLY HAVE HIGHS RISING INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. LOW TEMPERATURE RECORDS MAY EVEN BE IN JEOPARDY TUESDAY
MORNING, AS TEMPERATURES PLUMMET INTO THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.
AS SUCH, WILL LIKELY NEED FREEZE HEADLINES IN THE COMING DAYS.
WEDNESDAY MORNING LOWS, ALBEIT SLIGHTLY WARMER, WILL STILL FEEL
QUITE CHILLY AS VALUES HOVER NEAR/SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING.
OTHERWISE, SHOULD SEE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TURN QUASI-ZONAL BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD, ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO GRADUALLY MODERATE
BACK INTO THE 60S BY WEDNESDAY. MAY EVEN SEE A FEW LOCATIONS
ACROSS INTERIOR GEORGIA WARM INTO THE LOWER 70S BY THURSDAY.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT KCHS, KJZI, AND KSAV
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS OF A FOG AND
STRATUS THREAT ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA LATE IN THE PERIOD. CURRENT
THINKING IS THAT MOST OF THE FOG AND STRATUS WILL REMAIN WEST OF
KSAV, BUT THERE IS AT LEAST A LOW END POTENTIAL IT COULD EXPAND
FAR ENOUGH TO THE EAST TO IMPACT THE TERMINAL.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.
MARINE
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT: THIS MORNING WINDS WILL BEGIN
NORTHWESTERLY NO HIGHER THAN 10-15 KNOTS. THEN A BACKDOOR FRONT
WILL PASS THROUGH AND NORTHEAST WINDS WILL SPREAD IN WITH SPEEDS
AS HIGH AS 15-20 KNOTS (PRIMARILY THE SC WATERS). THIS
NORTHEAST FLOW WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT THOUGH
SPEEDS WILL COME DOWN TO THE 5-10 KNOT RANGE. SEAS ARE EXPECTED
TO MOSTLY BE IN THE 2-3 FT RANGE, BUT COULD RISE UP TO 4 FT IN
PORTIONS OF THE SC WATERS DURING THE PEAK OF THE NORTHEAST FLOW.
FRIDAY THROUGH ONWARD: SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KTS
WILL PREVAIL, WITH GUST UP TO 20 KT POSSIBLE. EXPECT SEAS 2 TO 4
FT.
MONDAY: A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS EARLY MONDAY WITH
WINDS AND SEAS PICKING UP IN ITS WAKE. AS OF CURRENT, SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES APPEAR LIKELY WITH WIND GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 30
KT RANGE AND SEAS 4 TO 6 FT.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
CHARLESTON AND COASTAL COLLETON (CHARLESTON HARBOR TIDE GAGE):
THE FRIDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE AS WINDS
TURN OUT OF THE NORTHEAST TODAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. WITH THE ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE OVER 7 FT
MLLW, IT IS QUITE LIKELY WE WILL AT LEAST SEE SOME MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING WITH THE MORNING HIGH TIDE. SATURDAY COULD ALSO BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING. A COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR CHARLESTON AND COASTAL
COLLETON COUNTIES, ESPECIALLY FRIDAY MORNING.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
NEAR TERM...BSH
SHORT TERM...SST
LONG TERM...SST
AVIATION...BSH/SST
MARINE...BSH/SST
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page