821
FXUS62 KCHS 141117
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
717 AM EDT THU MAY 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE AVIATION SECTION WAS UPDATED FOR THE 12Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING,
USHERING IN DRY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- 2) MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTH CAROLINA COAST WITH EACH EVENING HIGH TIDE THROUGH
TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION THIS
MORNING, USHERING IN DRY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
USING SATELLITE IMAGERY AND CURRENT OBSERVATIONS, A SURFACE COLD
FRONT CAN BE ANALYZED ACROSS THE SC UPSTATE AS OF 2 AM. AS THE
MORNING PROGRESSES THIS FRONT WILL SAUNTER TOWARDS THE LOCAL
AREA, PUSHING THROUGH BY 9 AM. AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT
WINDS HAVE GONE LIGHT TO CALM ACROSS SE SC, WHICH COMBINED WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND A MOIST AIRMASS HAS LEAD TO SOME GROUND FOG
DEVELOPING. ANY FOG THAT DEVELOPS WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE AS THE
FRONT APPROACHES JUST BEFORE SUNRISE. BEHIND THE FRONT WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE NW AND INCREASE SLIGHTLY, WITH GUSTS 10 TO 15
MPH FORECAST INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH AN OCCASIONAL GUST TO 20
MPH NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. ADDITIONALLY, THE FRONT WILL USHER
IN A DRIER AIRMASS. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES THIS AFTERNOON ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP TO 25-30% WEST OF I-95 AND 30-35% EAST OF I-95.
NO FIRE WEATHER PRODUCTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ISSUED TODAY, EVEN
THOUGH RH VALUES REACH CRITICAL LEVELS IN SOME SPOTS, THE WIND
GUSTS ARE NOT A CONCERN. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE WARMER
THAN THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS, DESPITE COLD FROPA, WITH HIGHS
REACHING INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S.
FRIDAY, HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A TOUCH COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS
DAY, WITH AFTERNOON RH VALUES BOTTOMING OUT IN THE MID 20S FAR
INLAND. THOUGH, WINDS IN THESE LOCATIONS WILL BE LIGHT, GENERALLY
SUSTAINED AT 5 MPH OR LESS, SO THERE WON'T BE ANY FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS.
MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL GRADUALLY RISE OVER THE WEEKEND AND THE FIRST
PART OF NEXT WEEK AS RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE EAST COAST. THIS WILL
CAUSE HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE LATE FRIDAY, THEN REMAIN IN THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL
CAUSE MOISTURE TO GRADUALLY INCREASE EACH DAY. BUT WE'RE NOT
EXPECTING ANY CONVECTION TO INITIATE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE UNTIL
POSSIBLY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 2: MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ALONG
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST WITH EACH EVENING HIGH TIDE
THROUGH TUESDAY.
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL BE RISING DUE TO THE UPCOMING NEW MOON (ON
SATURDAY). IN FACT, THE CHARLESTON ASTRONOMICAL TIDE ALONE IS
EXPECTED TO PEAK JUST ABOVE 6.7 FT MLLW WITH THE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
EVENING HIGH TIDES. THEREFORE, EVEN SMALL POSITIVE ANOMALIES COULD
LEAD TO MINOR COASTAL FLOODING FOR CHARLESTON AND COASTAL COLLETON
COUNTIES BOTH OF THOSE EVENINGS. THIS WILL ALL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT
ON THE WIND DIRECTION THE NEXT FEW DAYS. OVERALL, EACH HIGH TIDE
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR POTENTIAL
FLOODING.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
PREVAILING VFR THROUGH THE 12Z TAF PERIOD. WINDS THIS MORNING
OUT OF THE SW WILL SHIFT TO THE NW LATE MORNING AFTER COLD
FROPA, SHIFTING AGAIN TO NE LATE THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: VFR.
MARINE
TODAY AND TONIGHT: A DRY COLD FRONT IS TIMED TO PUSH ACROSS THE
NEARSHORE WATERS THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD
INTO THE REGION, WITH NO ADVISORY LEVEL CONCERNS THROUGH
TONIGHT.
EXTENDED MARINE: HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE WATERS ON FRIDAY,
THEN SHIFT OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. EXPECT
TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS DURING THIS ENTIRE TIME PERIOD.
RIP CURRENTS: FRIDAY: THE SWELL AND PERIOD WILL REMAIN SIMILAR, BUT
TIDAL RANGES WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEW MOON (ON SATURDAY). BOTH
INTERNAL CALCULATIONS AND RCMOS HAVE A LOW RISK ALONG OUR SC BEACHES
AND A MODERATE RISK ALONG OUR GA BEACHES DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.
THEREFORE, WE MAINTAINED THE MODERATE RISK FOR OUR GA BEACHES, AND
THE LOW RISK FOR OUR SC BEACHES.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page