573
FXUS62 KCHS 160639
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
239 AM EDT TUE JUN 16 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ALL SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) PERIODIC SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THIS WEEK WITHIN A PERSISTENT SUMMERTIME PATTERN.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: PERIODIC SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THIS WEEK WITHIN A PERSISTENT SUMMERTIME PATTERN.
TODAY AND TONIGHT: A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO WORK ITS WAY
INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS, WITH BROAD UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING SENDING SCATTERED SHORT-WAVES ACROSS THE AREA. WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES SURGING TO JUST ABOVE 2 INCHES, THE
AFOREMENTIONED FORCING WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS, INCREASING IN AREAL COVERAGE INTO THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.
SHOWER/STORM INTENSITY WILL BUILD INTO THE AFTERNOON AS WEAK
INSTABILITY BUILDS, THOUGH STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN MOSTLY
SCATTERED IN NATURE. WHILE 30-40 KNOTS OF SHEAR RETURNS TO THE
REGION, SBCAPE LOOKS TO LARGELY REMAIN BELOW 1000 J/KG, AND WITH 700-
500MB LAPSE RATES LOOKING TO BE ONLY 5 DEG C/KM, THE RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS IS LOW BUT NON-ZERO. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN ON
THE LIGHTER SIDE DUE TO 500MB WINDS IN THE 30-40 KNOT RANGE, THOUGH
AREAS THAT SEE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF RAIN HAVE A 30% PROBABILITY FOR
SEEING AN INCH OF RAIN BY EARLY MORNING WEDNESDAY.
GIVEN THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE AND CHANCES FOR RAIN FROM THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT, TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER TODAY.
AFTERNOON HIGHS ACROSS FAR INLAND SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA MAY STRUGGLE TO GET INTO THE 80S, WHILE AREAS
ALONG THE COAST LOOK TO STILL REACH UP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S. IN
ADDITION, THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE INCREASED TODAY,
LEADING TO MARGINALLY BREEZY WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD, WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE MID 60S INLAND AND UP INTO THE MID 70S ALONG THE
COAST.
WEDNESDAY - FRIDAY: DECENT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS LINGERING SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES THROUGH,
THEN SHORTWAVE RIDGING SHOULD BRING A LULL IN CONVECTION FOR THE
AFTERNOON. A SURGE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH POTENT
SHORTWAVE ENERGY SHOULD RESULT IN NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND TSTMS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
6Z TAFS: SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BUILD
INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE MORNING HOURS, WITH MVFR
CIGS LAGGING BEHIND BUT WILL ALSO BE MOVING INTO THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. EXPECT MOSTLY SHOWERS IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS, WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING AS INSTABILITY BUILDS MOSTLY
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA INTO THE EVENING HOURS. HAVE THUS NOT
INCLUDED ANY MENTION OF THUNDER AT KCHS AND KJZI, BUT DID INCLUDE IT
FOR THE KSAV TERMINAL. IFR TO MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO
THE REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD MOSTLY PREVAIL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE DUE TO AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT
THE WEEK.
MARINE
THE LOCAL WATERS WILL SIT BETWEEN ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST
AND A SURFACE TROUGH INLAND FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL DRIVE
MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW OF 15-20 KNOTS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD,
THOUGH WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AS THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HIGH
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE IS NOT AS CONVINCED, SO HAVE HELD OFF ON ISSUING
WITH THIS PACKAGE. AFTER WEAKENING WEDNESDAY MORNING, THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT AGAIN TIGHTENS OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY, THOUGH IT LOOKS TO
BE BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA AT THIS TIME. THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF
NEEDING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL COME FRIDAY AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
JUNE 18
KCHS: 78/2015
KCXM: 81/1998
JUNE 19
KCHS: 79/2025
KCXM: 81/2025
KSAV: 79/1881
JUNE 22:
KCHS: 79/2018
KSAV: 78/1937
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
APT/JRL
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