371
FXUS62 KCHS 122226
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
526 PM EST THU FEB 12 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE AVIATION SECTION WAS UPDATED FOR THE 13/00Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) AN IMPACTFUL SYSTEM ARRIVES LATE THIS WEEKEND, RESULTING
IN RENEWED PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND PERHAPS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: AN IMPACTFUL SYSTEM ARRIVES LATE THIS WEEKEND,
RESULTING IN RENEWED PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND PERHAPS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS.
A SUBSTANTIAL SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK INTO THE
SOUTHEAST AS A SURFACE LOW TRIES TO DEVELOP OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COASTLINE. QUITE A BIT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH THIS SYSTEM AS
IT DEPENDS ON HOW QUICKLY PHASING OCCURS WITH THIS SHORTWAVE AND
THE NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY. THIS SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY IS
REFLECTED IN THE 00Z.LREF CLUSTER ANALYSIS WHERE CLUSTER 1
CONTAINS ROUGHLY 70% OF THE GEPS MEMBERS AND ABOUT 50% OF THE
GEFS MEMBERS, EMPHASIZING THE SPLIT OF SOLUTIONS AND THE LACK OF
A DOMINANT SCENARIO. THE CLUSTER 1 ANALYSIS WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE
OF THE 06Z.ECMWF AS IT HAS A SLOWER ONSET OF PRECIPITATION.
WHILE, CLUSTER 2 CONTAINS ROUGHLY 40% ENS MEMBERS AND ABOUT 20%
OF THE GEFS MEMBERS. THE CLUSTER 2 ANALYSIS WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE
OF A DRIER SOLUTION AS IT DISPLACES THE SOUTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE FARTHER SOUTH AND EXHIBITS LESS PHASING.
THE 13Z.NBM LEANS MORE TOWARDS THE CLUSTER 1 ANALYSIS AND THE
FORECAST HAS BEEN MAINTAINED TO REFLECT THIS. AS THE REGION
BECOMES WARM-SECTORED AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT ON
SUNDAY, EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO BEGIN EARLY SUNDAY AND PERSIST
INTO MONDAY. REGARDING RAINFALL AMOUNTS, THERE CONTINUES TO BE A
80-90% CHANCE OF RAINFALL > 0.5" AND A 60-70% CHANCE OF
RAINFALL > 1" WITHIN A 24-HR PERIOD. WPC SEEMS TO AGREE WITH
THIS SENTIMENT, AS THE REGION HAS BEEN PLACED IN A MARGINAL RISK
OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. THERE IS EVEN A POSSIBILITY OF A FEW
WEAK THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS A
LITTLE BIT OF INSTABILITY APPEARS TO BE PRESENT. THESE
THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED POCKETS OF HIGHER
ACCUMULATIONS IN SOME AREAS. AS STATED BEFORE, A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH THIS SYSTEM AND TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITORED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
13/00Z TAF DISCUSSION:
KCHS/KJZI/KSAV: VFR THROUGH 14/00Z.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: THE POTENTIAL FOR FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS WILL INCREASE INTO SUNDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OVER THE MARINE WATERS THROUGH
SATURDAY. THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BE
POSITIONED TO THE NW OF THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY, YIELDING IN
GENERALLY NE WINDS. THE HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO SHIFT
EASTWARD, POSITIONED JUST OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A WIND SHIFT ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS TO THE SE BY
SATURDAY EVENING. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN APPROACH
FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY, CREATING A PINCHED GRADIENT ACROSS THE
LOCAL WATERS BETWEEN THE APPROACHING LOW AND THE OFFSHORE HIGH.
WINDS GUSTS COULD APPROACH 25 KNOTS ON SUNDAY ALONG WITH SEAS
BUILDING TO 6+ FT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WATERS, POSSIBLY
NECESSITATING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE WATERS. THE LOW IS
THEN FORECAST TO PUSH THROUGH MONDAY, POSSIBLY YIELDING ANOTHER
PERIOD OF STRONGER WIND GUSTS. THERE REMAINS CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE LOW AND ITS TRACK, SO THE CONFIDENCE
IN THIS PERIOD IS LOW.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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