621
FXUS62 KCHS 160021
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
821 PM EDT TUE SEP 15 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.
THE MARINE SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR LATEST TRENDS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) THERE IS A HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE GEORGIA
BEACHES THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
- 2) NOT AS HOT THROUGH THURSDAY, FOLLOWED BY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. INCREASING RAIN CHANCES
THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: THERE IS A HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE
GEORGIA BEACHES THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THE COMBINATION OF BREEZY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WITH ELEVATED
SEAS INTO MID-WEEK WILL LEAD TO AN ELEVATED RISK FOR RIP
CURRENTS TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. THE LOCATION OF
THE STRONGEST WINDS AND HIGHEST WAVE HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED ALONG
THE SOUTHEAST GEORGIA COASTLINE, THUS WE HAVE A HIGH RISK FOR
RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE GEORGIA BEACHES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A
MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ALONG THE
SOUTH CAROLINA BEACHES DURING THE SAME TIMEFRAME.
KEY MESSAGE 2: NOT AS HOT THROUGH THURSDAY, FOLLOWED BY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES THIS WEEKEND.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY: NEARLY A 600DM RIDGE WILL REMAIN
CENTERED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY, BEFORE SLIDING OFF
MORE TO THE WEST ON THURSDAY. THIS MAINTAIN THE LATE-SUMMER CAD
AND YIELD DRIER AIR ACROSS THE REGION WITH COOLER LOW-LVL
THICKNESSES. EXPECT AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS TO DIP INTO THE LOW TO
MID 60S WITH LOW 70S ALONG THE COASTLINE. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL ALSO BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN THE
PREVIOUS COUPLE DAYS WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 80S WITH A COUPLE POCKETS OF LOW 90S ACROSS INTERIOR
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. THIS WILL KEEP CONDITIONS STABLE ENOUGH TO BE
RAIN-FREE THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: AS THIS AFOREMENTIONED HIGH STARTS TO SHIFT
OFFSHORE, AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL TREND UPWARDS ON FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. SOME MODELS HAVE INDICATING THAT A CLOSED H5 LOW WILL
DEVELOP OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINAS ON THURSDAY NIGHT, AND THEN TRACK
SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS WEEKEND. THIS SHOULD
ADVECT RICH MOISTURE INTO THE REGION AND YIELD SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY (ESP. ALONG THE AFTERNOON
SEABREEZE).
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT CHS/JZI/SAV TERMINALS THROUGH 00Z
THURSDAY. HOWEVER, GUSTY EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS UP TO 15-20 KT ARE
POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WITH THE
CHANCE OF BREEZY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS (GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS
POSSIBLE) ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT: GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE CHARLESTON
HARBOR SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KT AT TIMES
NEAR THE HARBOR ENTRANCE OVERNIGHT. MODELS ARE FAIRLY AGGRESSIVE
IN LOWERING NORTHEAST WINDS OVERNIGHT, BUT AS INLAND AREAS COOL
AND WINDS BACK SUSPECT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN
SOMEWHAT PINCHED; LIKELY HIGHER THAN WHAT IS SUGGESTS. OPTED FOR
THE HIGHER SIDE OF THE WIND GUIDANCE GIVEN THIS SETUP ACROSS
NEARSHORE SC AND OFFSHORE GA WATERS, WHICH SHOULD KEEP
EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS 20-25 KT IN PLACE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH
SEAS 4-7 FT. SOME AREAS COULD SEE WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 KT ACROSS
GA WATERS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN PLACE FOR ALL
NEARSHORE WATERS AND THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATERS.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: WHILE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO WEDGE ITSELF INTO THE REGION, EXPECT NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS TO REMAIN QUITE BREEZY WITH SPEEDS RANGING FROM 15-20 KT
WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT ACROSS ALL THE MARINE ZONES ON WEDNESDAY.
THIS STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO DRIVE SEAS TO SURGE
TO 4-6 FT IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND 5-7 FT IN THE OFFSHORE
WATERS, BEFORE DECREASING TO 3-5 FT THURSDAY MORNING. THUS,
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER, EXPECT WINDS TO STILL MAINTAIN BREEZINESS WITH
SPEEDS 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 22 KTS ON THURSDAY. MORE
FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS WINDS FALL TO AROUND 5-10 KT AND SEAS CONTINUE TO
LOWER. MARINERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECAST
BEFORE HEADING OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND AS THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW THIS CLOSED H5 LOW DEVELOPS OFFSHORE
OF THE CAROLINAS ON THURSDAY NIGHT.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR GAZ217-219-
239-241.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ360-362-
364-384.
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