165
FXUS62 KCHS 112117
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
417 PM EST WED FEB 11 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MINOR CHANGES TO MARINE DISCUSSION FOR ENDING HAZARDS THIS
AFTERNOON. MINOR CHANGES TO AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA FROM THE NORTH LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING BRINGING SHOWERS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA.
- 2) A MORE IMPACTFUL SYSTEM ARRIVES LATE THIS WEEKEND,
RESULTING IN ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AND PERHAPS
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH SOUTHEAST SOUTH
CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA FROM THE NORTH LATE AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING BRINGING SHOWERS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA.
ALOFT, H5 SHORTWAVE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD MID-LVL TROUGH
WILL RIPPLE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES THIS AFTERNOON,
HELPING PRODUCE LIGHT RAIN/SHOWERS LOCALLY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
ARRIVING FROM THE NORTH LATE DAY INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS. LATEST
RADAR TRENDS CONTINUE TO INDICATE LIGHT RETURNS WITH PRECIP LIKELY
STRUGGLING TO REACH THE SFC DUE TO SUBSTANTIALLY AIR DEPICTED IN
MODEL SOUNDINGS FROM THE SFC TO 700MB LEVEL. HOWEVER, WEST-SOUTHWEST
FLOW AHEAD OF THE ARRIVING FRONT SHOULD EVENTUALLY MOISTEN THE
ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN, SUPPORTING MEASURABLE RAINFALL IN THE FORM OF
LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS ACROSS THE TRI-COUNTY AREA AND FAR INLAND
AREAS OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND INLAND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA EARLY-
MID AFTERNOON, FOLLOWED BY ACTIVITY BECOMING MORE FOCUSED ACROSS
COASTAL AREAS AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA LATE DAY INTO EVENING HOURS AS
THE COLD FRONT PROGRESSES SOUTH WITH TIME. ALTHOUGH PERSISTENT CLOUD
COVER AND LIGHT RAIN/SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AT TIMES TODAY, WARM AIR
ADVECTION INTO THE REGION WILL STILL SUPPORT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE
LOW-MID 70S DURING PEAK DIURNAL HEATING (WARMEST ACROSS SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA INTO SOUTHERN SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA). WARMING COULD LEAD
TO MARGINAL LEVELS OF INSTABILITY (250-500 J/KG SBCAPE), AND WHEN
COMBINED WITH FORCING/INCREASING MOISTURE COULD EVEN PRODUCE A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND PERHAPS AS FAR NORTH
INTO SOUTHERN SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING. CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR
SHORT-LIVED PERIODS OF HIGHER RAINFALL RATES PRIOR TO ACTIVITY
SHIFTING OFFSHORE AND/OR SOUTH OF THE ALTAMAHA RIVER BY AROUND
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD MOSTLY BE IN THE
0.10-0.20" RANGE, BUT LOCATIONS THAT EXPERIENCE A THUNDERSTORM COULD
SEE AMOUNTS IN THE 0.25-0.50" RANGE.
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT, A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
YIELD ELEVATED WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION, WHICH SETS THE
STAGE FOR BREEZY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH AFTERNOON HOURS
WHILE WARMER TEMPS PROMOTE LOW-LVL MIXING. FREQUENT GUSTS IN THE 20-
25 MPH RANGE CAN BE EXPECTED FOR MOST AREAS, WITH STRONGER GUSTS
POSSIBLE DURING SHOWERS AND/OR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM LATE
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS.
KEY MESSAGE 2: A MORE IMPACTFUL SYSTEM ARRIVES LATE THIS WEEKEND,
RESULTING IN ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AND PERHAPS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS.
TURNING THE ATTENTION TOWARDS THIS WEEKEND, A SUBSTANTIAL SOUTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK INTO THE SOUTHEAST AS A SURFACE LOW
TRIES TO DEVELOP OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COASTLINE. QUITE A BIT
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT DEPENDS ON HOW QUICKLY
PHASING OCCURS WITH THIS SHORTWAVE AND THE NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY.
THIS SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY IS REFLECTED IN THE 00Z.LREF CLUSTER
ANALYSIS WHERE CLUSTER 1 CONTAINS ROUGHLY 50% OF THE ENS MEMBERS AND
ABOUT 10% OF THE GEFS MEMBERS, EMPHASIZING THE DIVERSITY OF ENSEMBLE
SOLUTIONS AND THE LACK OF A DOMINANT SCENARIO. WHILE, CLUSTER 2
CONTAINS ALMOST THE COMPLETE OPPOSITE SCENARIO WITH ROUGHLY 50% GEFS
MEMBERS AND ABOUT 10% OF THE ENS MEMBERS. CLUSTER 2 ANALYSIS WOULD
BE SUPPORTIVE WITH THE 06Z.GFS AS IT DISPLACES THE SOUTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE FARTHER SOUTH AND EXHIBITS LESS PHASING RELATIVE TO THE
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. THIS SOLUTION WOULD YIELD A MUCH DRIER SYSTEM FOR
THE WEEKEND, HOWEVER AS THIS IS JUST ONE SOLUTION, NOT MUCH WEIGHT
HAS BEEN PLACED ON THIS SCENARIO QUITE YET.
NOT SURPRISINGLY, THE 13Z.NBM LEANS MORE TOWARDS THE CLUSTER 1
ANALYSIS AND THE FORECAST HAS BEEN MAINTAINED TO REFLECT THIS.
AS THE REGION BECOMES WARM-SECTORED AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING COLD
FRONT ON SUNDAY, EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO BEGIN EARLY SUNDAY AND
PERSIST INTO MONDAY. REGARDING RAINFALL AMOUNTS, THERE CONTINUES
TO BE A 80-90% CHANCE OF RAINFALL > 0.5" AND A 60-70% CHANCE OF
RAINFALL > 1" WITHIN A 24-HR PERIOD. THERE IS EVEN A POSSIBILITY
OF A FEW WEAK THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
AS A LITTLE BIT OF INSTABILITY APPEARS TO BE PRESENT. THESE
THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED POCKETS OF HIGHER ACCUMULATIONS
IN SOME AREAS. AS STATED BEFORE, A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
WITH THIS SYSTEM AND TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO MONITORED OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE DAYS.
AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT CHS/JZI TERMINALS THROUGH 21-22Z
WEDNESDAY, BEFORE TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
SHOWERS UNTIL 00-01Z THIS EVENING. THE TREND SHOULD BE SIMILAR
AT THE SAV TERMINAL, ALTHOUGH DELAYED 1-2 HOURS FROM CHS/JZI
BASED ON THE SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF A COLD FRONT AND POTENTIAL
FOR MODERATE SHOWERS TO DIRECTLY IMPACT THE TERMINAL CLOSER THE
FROPA TIMING. TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AROUND THE
22-01Z THURSDAY TIME FRAME AT SAV AS A RESULT. THERE REMAINS A
LIMITED CONCERN FOR A THUNDERSTORM TO IMPACT THE SAV TERMINAL AS
WELL LATE AFTERNOON AND/OR EARLY EVENING, BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE. OUTSIDE OF RAIN/SHOWERS,
EXPECT BREEZY WIND CONDITIONS AT CHS/JZI/SAV TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING WITH WEST WINDS GUSTING UP TO THE
20-25 KT RANGE. WINDS SHOULD QUICKLY DECREASE AT ALL TERMINALS
EARLY TO MID EVENING, REMAINING BELOW 10 KT FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE NIGHT AND THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: VFR PREVAILS THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK, HOWEVER FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND AS
A SYSTEM TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION.
MARINE
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT: A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTH THIS AFTERNOON, EVENTUALLY SHIFTING ACROSS LOCAL WATERS FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH THIS EVENING. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE, THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT REMAINS ENHANCED WITH LOW-LVL WIND FIELDS AND MODEST
MIXING SUPPORTIVE OF 15-20 KT WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON. SEAS RANGE BETWEEN 2-5 FT, LARGEST ACROSS OUTER
GEORGIA WATERS.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT WINDS VEERING TO THE WEST AND
WEAKENING LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING WHILE SEAS SUBSIDE
AND REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THE NIGHT.
HOWEVER, NORTHERLY WINDS SHOULD EVENTUALLY SURGE WITH COLD AIR
ADVECTION POST FROPA LATE NIGHT, AND COULD BRIEFLY RESULT IN
GUSTS NEAR 25 KT ACROSS OUTER GEORGIA WATERS FOR A FEW HOURS
AROUND DAYBREAK THURSDAY MORNING. GIVEN THE SHORT DURATION AND
MARGINAL COMPLEXITY OF THE EVENT THURSDAY MORNING, HAVE OPTED TO
HOLD OFF ON A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ACROSS OUTER GEORGIA WATERS
WITH THE LATEST FORECAST PACKAGE.
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: BREEZY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL DIAL BACK
ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST
THROUGH SATURDAY. SOME EAST-NORTHEASTLERY SWELL WILL LINGER IN THE
LOCAL WATERS THROUGH SATURDAY AS WELL WITH SEAS RANGING FROM 2 TO 3
FT. ATTENTION WILL SWITCH TOWARDS A PRONOUNCED SYSTEM HEADING
TOWARDS THE REGION LATE THIS WEEKEND AND SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
WILL BECOME QUITE BLUSTERY ON SUNDAY. ALONG WITH THESE WINDS, A GOOD
AMOUNT OF SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY SWELL ENERGY SHOULD ALSO BUILD INTO
THE LOCAL WATERS ON SUNDAY WITH SEAS 4 TO 7 FT IN THE NEARSHORE
WATERS AND 6 TO 8 FT IN THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS BY SUNDAY EVENING.
THEREFORE, SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES LOOK VERY LIKELY FOR LATE THIS
WEEKEND.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DENNIS/DPB
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