027
FXUS62 KCHS 221132
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
732 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ALL SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND,
THOUGH NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
WEEKEND, THOUGH NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION, WITH A
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER BERMUDA. DESPITE PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES NEAR 1.75" AND DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S, DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL KEEP CONDITIONS ON THE DRIER
SIDE DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST. LIGHT ONSHORE/SOUTHERLY
FLOW AND BROKEN SUNSHINE TODAY SHOULD PROVIDE THE MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY NECESSARY FOR ISOLATED SUMMER-LIKE CONVECTION ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST, THOUGH GIVEN THE LACK OF DEEP-LAYERED SHEAR RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY UNORGANIZED. CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL FIRST
TAKE PLACE THIS MORNING FOR AREAS EAST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR, BUT AS
THE MOISTURE IS DEPLETED CHANCES FOR RAIN SHIFT TOWARDS AREAS WEST
OF THE I-95 LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO MOVE OUT OF THE GULF FRIDAY EVENING INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING, BRINGING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR LIGHT SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PRIMARILY FOR AREAS WEST OF I-95.
THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED
(ESPECIALLY INLAND) AS THE SPRAWLING UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE
CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST SLOWLY MEANDERS EAST AND AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT STALLS OVER EAST-CENTRAL GEORGIA, THE SOUTH
CAROLINA MIDLANDS AND INTO THE PIEDMONT/COASTAL PLAIN OF NORTH
CAROLINA. WARM AND MOIST CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH THE
REGION HOLDING SOUTH OF THE FRONT. PWATS ARE FORECAST TO AVERAGE
BETWEEN 1.5-2.0" THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S AND HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 80S/NEAR 90 YIELDING
MODEST LEVELS OF SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY EACH AFTERNOON. WITH THE
CENTER OF THE SUBTROPICAL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OFFSHORE, RIBBONS OF
MOSTLY CHANNELED MID/UPPER-LEVEL VORTICITY WILL PASS THROUGH ALOFT
WITH THE FRONT STALLED TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST. THIS SHOULD RESULT
IN A MODEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS EACH DAY WITH THE GREATEST
COVERAGE OCCURRING ACROSS THE FAR INTERIOR CLOSER TO WHERE THE FRONT
STALLS. COASTAL AREAS MAY VERY WELL SEE A LIMITED AMOUNT OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS BOTH DAYS WITH A FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATION EXPECTED TO OCCUR EACH AFTERNOON. OF COURSE, MESOSCALE
INTERACTIONS MAY EVENTUALLY AUGMENT THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN AT TIMES
WITH THE SEA BREEZE POTENTIALLY SPARKING OFF CONVECTION ITSELF AND
POSSIBLY INTERSECTING WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES GENERATED BY
CONVECTION FARTHER INLAND. NO SIGNIFICANT HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED
ALTHOUGH GUSTY WINDS, CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL COULD OCCUR, MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENINGS.
THE FRONT WILL RETREAT NORTH BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER HIGH
OFFSHORE RETROGRADES BACK TO THE WEST. THIS WILL BRING A MORE SUMMER-
TIME DIURNAL CONVECTIVE PATTERN.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
KCHS/KJZI/KSAV: GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED, WITH BRIEF
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS DUE TO FOG OR STRATUS EARLY THIS MORNING.
MAY SEE AN ADDITIONAL ROUND OF BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS FROM
RAIN SHOWERS/STORMS, WHICH SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED TO THE MVFR
CATEGORY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL
CONTINUE THIS MORNING FOR AREAS EAST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR, BUT
AS THE MOISTURE IS DEPLETED CHANCES FOR RAIN SHIFT TOWARDS AREAS
WEST OF THE I-95 LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: THERE ARE NO HIGH CONFIDENCE CONCERNS
WITH THE BULK OF SHOWERS/TSTMS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEST OF THE
TERMINALS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MARINE
TODAY AND TONIGHT: THE REGION WILL REMAIN BETWEEN A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE TO OUR EAST AND A STALLED FRONT ACROSS THE AREA, KEEPING
CONDITIONS WELL BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TODAY, BECOMING MARGINALLY BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON. AFTER THE
MORNING ROUND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS, EXPECT MOSTLY
QUIET CONDITIONS THE REST OF THE DAY WITH SOME ADDITIONAL SCATTERED
CHANCES FOR RAIN RETURNING OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY: THE COASTAL WATERS WILL REMAIN ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL KEEP A SOUTHERLY FLOW REGIME IN PLACE WITH CLASSIC SUMMER-
TIME SURGES OCCURRING ALONG THE LAND/SEA INTERFACE AND CHARLESTON
HARBOR EACH AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. SPEEDS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 15 KT, ALTHOUGH GUSTS COULD APPROACH 20 KT AT
TIMES WITHIN THE SEA BREEZE ITSELF. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 2-4 FT.
RIP CURRENTS: A MODEST EASTERLY SWELL AROUND 3FT/9S AND SEA BREEZE
INFLUENCES EACH AFTERNOON WILL KEEP THE RIP CURRENT RISK IN THE
MODERATE CATEGORY THROUGH SATURDAY.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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