642
FXUS62 KCHS 202344
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
744 PM EDT FRI MAR 20 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) QUIET WEATHER AND WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
- 2) A STRONG BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL YIELD BREEZY WINDS AND
COOLER CONDITIONS MID-WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: QUIET WEATHER AND WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE AT THE SURFACE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WHILE THE UPPER LEVELS WILL GENERALLY
FEATURE SOUTHWESTERLY TO ZONAL FLOW DURING THIS TIME PERIOD, A WEAK
SHORTWAVE ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO RIPPLE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. CAMS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THIS COULD TRIGGER
SOME SHOWERS, MAINLY ACROSS THE SC MIDLANDS. THE CURRENT FORECAST
FOR THE SC LOWCOUNTRY AND SE GEORGIA REMAINS DRY, HOWEVER A STRAY
WEAK SHOWER COULD IMPACT FAR INLAND COLLETON/DORCHESTER/BERKELEY
COUNTIES TOMORROW EVENING. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ROUGHLY 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH HIGHS REACHING
INTO THE 80S.
KEY MESSAGE 2: A STRONG BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL YIELD BREEZY WINDS
AND COOLER CONDITIONS MID-WEEK.
A STRONG BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION LATE ON
MONDAY/EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES. THE
NBM SHOWS PROBABILITIES OF WIND GUSTS >25 MPH ALONG THE COASTAL
COUNTIES AROUND 50% ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL BE
MUCH LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS, HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE
AROUND NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WITH THIS BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED,
WITH POPS TOPPING OUT ONLY AROUND 30% TUESDAY NIGHT. A RETURN
TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARRIVES THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION AGAIN.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KCHS, KJZI, AND KSAV THROUGH 00Z
SUNDAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: THERE ARE NO HIGH CONFIDENCE
CONCERNS.
MARINE
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY: CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BUILD A BIT BEGINNING
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. THERE WILL
LIKELY BE PERIODS OF TIME WITH SPEEDS GETTING INTO THE 15-20
KNOT RANGE. THE BIGGEST IMPACT FOR THE WATERS WILL COME MONDAY
NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY IN THE WAKE OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. THE
ARRIVAL OF SOME COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT AND A PINCHING OF
THE GRADIENT WILL YIELD A NOTABLE NORTHEASTERLY SURGE. SOLID
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY FOR ALL OF THE
WATERS, WITH FREQUENT GUSTS UP TO AROUND 30 KNOTS. THERE IS EVEN
SOME SUPPORT FOR A PERIOD OF GUSTS POSSIBLY UP TO AROUND GALE
FORCE, MEANING THAT GALE WATCHES AND WARNINGS COULD EVENTUALLY
BE NEEDED.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
CPM/DPB
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