067
FXUS62 KCHS 271151
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
651 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) A PASSING COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TODAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: A PASSING COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
TODAY.
A SHORTWAVE ALOFT TRACKING ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH WILL ADVANCE INTO
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. TODAY, BRINGING MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF VORTICITY
ENERGY. A WEAK COLD FRONT, CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS THE UPSTATE, WILL
GRADUALLY SINK SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY
BEFORE PUSHING OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. RELATIVELY DEEP MOISTURE, WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 1.3-1.4 INCHES, WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE DURING THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT AND SUPPORT WIDESPREAD SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON, WITH SOME LINGERING SHOWERS CONTINUING INTO THE
EVENING. ONCE THE FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE THIS EVENING, MOST OF THE
RAINFALL WILL DIMINISH AS DRIER AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND IT AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS.
SHOWERS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT TO MODERATE, PRODUCING ENOUGH TO
DROP A HEALTHY AMOUNT OF MUCH NEEDED RAIN. RAINFALL TOTALS ARE
FORECAST TO RANGE FROM ONE-QUARTER TO THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH. THE
LOWEST TOTALS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST, WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS
INLAND, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE CSRA AND THE SOUTH CAROLINA
MIDLANDS. LOCATIONS ACROSS NORTHERN BERKELEY, DORCHESTER, AND
COLLETON COUNTIES COULD RECEIVE CLOSE TO ONE INCH OF RAINFALL.
WHILE SHOWERS WILL BE THE PRIMARY PRECIPITATION TYPE, WEAK
INSTABILITY (CAPE VALUES AROUND 100-300 J/KG) ACROSS EXTREME
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA COULD PRODUCE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IN THE LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON, MAINLY SOUTH OF SAVANNAH AND NEAR THE
ALTAMAHA RIVER.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS
THE AREA TODAY, PRODUCING PREVAILING MVFR CONDITIONS AT CHS/JZI
THROUGH AT LEAST 15Z FRIDAY, AND TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS AT SAV
UNTIL 16Z FRIDAY. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO GRADUALLY DETERIORATE TO
IFR LATE MORNING INTO AFTERNOON HOURS AT ALL TERMINALS, ALTHOUGH
TRENDS COULD LEAD TO DELAYING THE ARRIVAL OF IFR A FEW HOURS
INTO THE AFTERNOON. SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD END WITH COLD FROPA
EARLY-MID EVENING, BUT IFR CIGS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST FOLLOWING
THE FRONT THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY. THERE ARE ALSO HINTS THAT VSBYS
COULD LOWER POST FROPA OVERNIGHT, GENERALLY IN THE 3-6SM RANGE,
BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE PREVAILING GROUPS WITH
VSBYS BELOW 6SM AT THIS TIME.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CIGS ARE LIKELY AT
ALL TERMINALS THROUGH AROUND DAYBREAK SATURDAY, UNTIL DRY HIGH
PRESSURE TAKES OVER WITH IMPROVING CIGS TO VFR BY LATE SATURDAY
MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN PREVAIL SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THE
NEXT CHANCE OF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARRIVE LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WITH A PASSING COLD FRONT NEXT WEEK.
MARINE
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY: NO MARINE CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE TODAY AND LIKELY
SHIFT OFFSHORE THIS EVENING, HELPING PRODUCE NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND
15 KT WHILE SEAS RANGE BETWEEN 2-3 FT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH CONDITIONS THAT
REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY: A COLD FRONT SHOULD SHIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE WEDGING INTO THE AREA
AND CREATING A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS COASTAL WATERS.
NORTHERLY WINDS COULD SURGE TO AROUND 25 KT WITH SEAS BUILDING UP TO
6-8 FT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES COULD EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED ACROSS
A MAJORITY OF LOCAL WATERS.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
BRS/DPB
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