958
FXUS62 KCHS 102352
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
752 PM EDT SAT OCT 10 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ALL SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) RISK FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT.
- 2) MINOR COASTAL FLOODING EXPECTED AGAIN SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS
COASTAL PORTIONS OF CHARLESTON AND COLLETON COUNTIES.
- 3) THERE IS A HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE CHARLESTON
COUNTY BEACHES FOR SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: RISK FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL PERSIST
OVERNIGHT.
THE TORNADO RISK IS ENDING AND THE REMAINING PORTIONS OF TORNADO
WATCH 679 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. DEEP, TROPICAL MOISTURE
REMAINS IN PLACE. THE RISK FOR SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
LINGER FOR A FEW MORE HOURS AND A FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES THROUGH
2 AM SUNDAY. HOWEVER, THE RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING IS WANING AND
ANY FLOODING WILL LIKELY LIMITED TO MINOR FLOODING OF LOW-LYING
AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. SOME SPOTS HAVE PICKED UP OVER 4" OF
RAIN TODAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2: MINOR COASTAL FLOODING EXPECTED AGAIN SUNDAY
MORNING ACROSS COASTAL PORTIONS OF CHARLESTON AND COLLETON
COUNTIES.
TIDES IN THE CHARLESTON HARBOR ARE EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE
MINOR FLOOD CATEGORY WITH HIGH TIDE SUNDAY MORNING. ANOTHER
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.
KEY MESSAGE 3: THERE IS A HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE
CHARLESTON COUNTY BEACHES FOR SUNDAY.
LINGERING ELEVATED SWELL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL SUPPORT A HIGH
RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE CHARLESTON COUNTY BEACHES
THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. THE RISK IS MODERATE FOR ALL OTHER
BEACHES.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
11/00Z TAFS:
CIGS WILL WAIVER FROM VFR TO MVFR FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT BEFORE
SETTLING INTO MVFR PRIOR TO DAYBREAK. CIGS WILL LIFT TO VFR BY
MID-MORNING AS A COLD FRONT SHIFTS THROUGH. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY
FOR MUCH OF THE DAYTIME PERIOD WITH GUSTS >20 KT POSSIBLE. A
BAND OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A TSTM COULD ACCOMPANY THE COLD
FRONT HAS IT PUSHES THROUGH DURING THE MORNING. ANY IMPACTS WILL
BE BRIEF, SO VCSH WAS USED 14-17Z AT KCHS AND KJZI WITH 10-13Z
AT KSAV.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: NO HIGH CONFIDENCE CONCERNS THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEK.
MARINE
TONIGHT: THE STRONGEST 850 MB WINDS HAVE PUSHED NORTH OF THE
AREA A BIT FASTER THAN EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON, AND WINDS ARE
MOSTLY MODERATE ACROSS THE WATERS, WITH A RELATIVELY RELAXED
GRADIENT EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING. AS SUCH, GALE
WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DOWNGRADED TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES. WINDS
BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT, WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT COMMON ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
AGAIN BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY: REMNANTS OF ISAIAS COMBINED WITH
A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE SHOULD KEEP WINDS BREEZY ON
SUNDAY AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY PERSIST FOR PORTIONS
OF THE COASTAL WATERS INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
CONTINUING INTO MONDAY. THEREAFTER, EXPECT THESE MARINE
CONDITIONS TO BECOME ALMOST TRANQUIL AS WE HEAD INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR GAZ087-088-099>101-114-
115-137-216>219-238>241.
SC...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR SCZ040-042>045-147>152.
HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR SCZ150.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ360-362.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 PM EDT
SUNDAY FOR AMZ364.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ384.
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