535
FXUS62 KCHS 051120
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
720 AM EDT TUE MAY 5 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) A COLD FRONT WILL BRING AN INCREASED RISK FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: A COLD FRONT WILL BRING AN INCREASED RISK FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WILL FAVOR A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT DRIVEN BY A MID-LVL TROUGH ADVANCING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES/OHIO RIVER VALLEY MID-WEEK. DEEP MOISTURE (PWATS ~2.0 INCHES)
IS EXPECTED TO ADVECT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON THURSDAY WHILE WARM
CONDITIONS PERSIST PRIOR TO THE FRONT ARRIVING, BUT INCREASING CLOUD
COVER SHOULD LIMIT INSTABILITY WHEN MODEST LEVELS OF SHEAR
ASSOCIATED WITH ENHANCED LOW-LVL WIND FIELDS ARRIVE/DEVELOP ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST UNITES STATES WHILE A STRONG H25 JET CORE PASSES
INLAND AND TO THE NORTH.
TIMING OF THE FRONT REMAINS THE MOST SUBSTANTIAL UNCERTAINTY IN
REGARDS TO SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ARRIVAL/COVERAGE AS WELL AS THE
PROGRESSION OF THE MID-UPPER LVL TROUGH NORTH OF THE REGION
THURSDAY. GUIDANCE REMAINS RATHER SPLIT WITH COLD FROPA OCCURRING
BETWEEN THE THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING TIME RANGE, WITH
THE GFS REMAINING THE FASTER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION ALONG
WITH DRY HIGH PRESSURE OCCURRING LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, WHILE
THE ECMWF SUGGESTS A MORE STALLING OUT OF THE FRONT JUST SOUTH OF
THE REGION AS THE MID-UPPER TROUGH AND SFC FRONT BECOME MUCH MORE
DISPLACED FROM EACH OTHER. THE LATER SOLUTION WOULD RESULT IN PRECIP
ACTIVITY HOLDING ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ON SATURDAY, BUT RAINFALL TOTALS AND THE
RISK FOR FLOODING (LOW) REMAIN RELATIVELY SIMILAR UNDER EITHER
SCENARIO. REGARDLESS OF THE THE OUTCOME, THE ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTS AT
LEAST SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
AS THE FRONT APPROACHES AND SHIFTS ACROSS THE REGION. STRONGER
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES REMAIN LOW GIVEN FROPA IS LIKELY TO OCCUR
DURING OVERNIGHT HOURS, BUT CAN'T BE RULED OUT IF ACTIVITY IS ABLE
TO MAINTAIN SOME ORGANIZATION WHILE ENTERING INLAND AREAS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT CHS/JZI/SAV TERMINALS THROUGH 12Z
WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, GUSTY SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 20 KT
ARE ANTICIPATED AT ALL TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS FROM SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION.
MARINE
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT THURSDAY. THERE COULD BE PERIOD OF 25 KT WINDS AND 6 FT
SEAS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CHARLESTON NEARSHORE WATERS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DPB/JRL
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