936
FXUS62 KCHS 171104
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
604 AM EST TUE FEB 17 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED AND WARM CONDITIONS FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED AND WARM CONDITIONS FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF AMERICA
BUILDS DURING THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK, WITH WARM AND MOIST
SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW SETTING UP OVER THE REGION STARTING
ON THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN
CONSISTENTLY FLIRT WITH AND/OR EXCEED THE 90TH PERCENTILE WRT
CLIMATOLOGY, AS THE LATEST ENSEMBLE SITUATIONAL AWARENESS TABLES
CONTINUE TO SHOW, WHICH WILL RESULT IN DAILY MAXIMUM SURFACE
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILARLY WARM IN
THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S, WHICH WILL BE CLOSER TO OUR NORMAL
DAILY HIGHS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR IN THE MID 60S COMPARED TO
NORMAL LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. THE FORECAST DOES NOT CURRENTLY
REACH/EXCEED RECORDS, THOUGH WE'LL GET CLOSEST TO THE RECORDS
SET FOR FEBRUARY 20 AS WE'LL BE WARMEST THAT DAY WITH INLAND
AREAS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.
WHILE SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH
AFTERNOON, ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM POSITIVE THETA-E ADVECTION WILL ADD
TO THE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS AT TIMES. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE WHEN INSTABILITY LEVELS RISE, AND WHILE MODEL
AGREEMENT IS OVERALL GOOD, AGREEMENT ISN'T HIGH ENOUGH TO PINPOINT
WHAT DAY(S) THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO BE EXPECTED.
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION AT SOME POINT ON
SUNDAY.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
PRIOR TO THE 12Z TAFS, LIGHT GROUND FOG WAS OBSERVED AT BOTH
KCHS AND KSAV. ANY FOG THIS MORNING SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 13Z.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT CHS/JZI/SAV TERMINALS THROUGH 12Z
WEDNESDAY. A WEAK SEA BREEZE IS FORECAST TO SHIFT WINDS FROM THE
SSE THIS AFTERNOON, SPEEDS BETWEEN 5 TO 10 KTS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: VFR THROUGH MID-WEEK. THE POTENTIAL FOR
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL INCREASE LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
POSSIBLE FOG DEVELOPMENT DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE WIND AND SEA CONDITIONS WELL BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. VERY WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. GIVEN SHELF WATER
TEMPERATURES AROUND 50 DEGREES, WIND DIRECTIONS PARALLEL TO THE
COAST, AND DEWPOINTS AROUND 60 DEGREES, SEA FOG IS POSSIBLE
BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS INDICATE A STRONG BL INVERSION, EXTENDING 300-500 FT FROM THE
WATER. IN ADDITION, NAM SFC CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS FALL BELOW
5 MBS EACH NIGHT. AT THIS TIME, A MENTION OF PATCHY SEA FOG WILL BE
LIMITED TO WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER, IF RAIN
CHANCES DECREASE FRIDAY AND BEYOND THEN THE POTENTIAL FOR SEA FOG
WILL INCREASE.
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE WATERS THIS WEEKEND.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES COULD BE NEEDED FOR A PORTION OF THE MARINE
ZONES AS WIND GUSTS ARE FORECAST TO APPROACH 25 KT.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
FEBRUARY 20:
KCHS: 82/2018
KCXM: 78/1918
KSAV: 84/1991
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
APT/NED
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