686
FXUS62 KCHS 140654
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
254 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ALL SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TODAY WITH
ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD
ALSO BECOME STRONG WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
- 2) MINOR TO MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING REMAINS POSSIBLE DURING
THE EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLES ALONG THE CHARLESTON TO COLLETON
COUNTY COAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
- 3) NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN ON THURSDAY,
WARMING UP FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TODAY WITH
ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD ALSO
BECOME STRONG WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
TODAY AND TONIGHT: A STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY
FOCUS FOR CONVECTION, CURRENTLY ORIENTED ALONG/NEAR THE SOUTHEAST
SOUTH CAROLINA COAST, THEN MORE EAST-WEST ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
EARLY THIS MORNING. EARLY MORNING CONVECTION HAS ALREADY ERUPTED
ALONG PARTS OF THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST NEAR THIS FEATURE, AND
COULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS NEAR OR JUST OFF THE COAST
PRIOR TO DAYBREAK.
SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE, GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE TO EXPAND ALONG THE BOUNDARY, WITH SOME GUIDANCE INDICATING
WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING NEARBY AND/OR JUST SOUTH OF THIS
FEATURE DURING THE DAY. THE POSITION OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE WOULD
RESULT IN A FAVORABLE ZONE OF LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW AND ISENTROPIC LIFT
ACROSS SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA, LIKELY RESULTING IN AN EARLIER
START TO SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG COASTAL SOUTH
CAROLINA COMMUNITIES THROUGH MID MORNING HOURS, FOLLOWED BY MORE
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS INLAND SOUTH CAROLINA/GEORGIA AS WELL AS MODEST
INSTABILITY DEVELOPS WITH DIURNAL HEATING. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE NOTICEABLY
COOLER TODAY GIVEN THE EXTENT OF CLOUDS AND EARLIER START TO CONVECTION,
BUT DEEP MOISTURE (PWATS 2.25 TO 2.50 INCHES) AND SLOW STORM MOTION
COULD LEAD TO ANOTHER DAY OF ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING, PARTICULARLY
ACROSS SATURATED GROUNDS FROM THE LAST FEW DAYS OF RAINFALL. HOWEVER,
SHOULD ACTIVITY HUG THE BOUNDARY NEAR THE COAST FOR A LONGER DURATION,
AND INCREASED THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS
COASTAL ZONES. EXPECT THE BULK OF CONVECTION TO WANE DURING EVENING
HOURS. HOWEVER, IF ACTIVITY HOLDS ON FOR LONGER THAN ANTICIPATED,
IT COULD POSE AN ADDITIONAL RISK FOR COASTAL FLOODING DURING THE
EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLE. THE LATEST WPC EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK
FOR TODAY HIGHLIGHTS THE ENTIRE AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL/FLASH FLOODING. SEVERE WEATHER CONCERNS SHOULD BE NOTICEABLY
LOWER TODAY, BUT A STRONGER THUNDERSTORM OR TWO CAN NOT BE RULED
OUT WITH DAMAGING WINDS THIS AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGE 2: MINOR TO MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING REMAINS POSSIBLE
DURING THE EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLES ALONG THE CHARLESTON TO COLLETON
COUNTY COAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ASSOCIATED WITH YESTERDAY'S LUNAR PERIGEE
AND TODAY'S NEW MOON WILL CONTINUE, WITH A 6.57 FT MLLW TONIGHT AND
A 6.46 FT MLLW WEDNESDAY EVENING IN THE CHARLESTON HARBOR. SIMILAR
TO WHAT WAS OBSERVED MONDAY EVENING, WILL LIKELY SEE WATER LEVELS
PEAK IN THE 7.4-7.6 FT MLLW RANGE TUESDAY EVENING WITH A WEAK
NORTHEASTERLY WIND AIDING THE INCREASING TIDAL DEPARTURES. GIVEN
SLIGHTLY LOWER ASTRO TIDES AND WEAK VARIABLE WINDS WEDNESDAY
EVENING, PEAK WATER LEVELS OF 7.1-7.3 FT MLLW ARE EXPECTED. COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORIES ARE EXPECTED ON BOTH DAYS FOR THE CHARLESTON AND
COLLETON COUNTY COAST. IF HEAVY RAINFALL WERE TO OCCUR NEAR OR
DURING THE TIME OF THE EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLES, FLOODING CONCERNS
WOULD INCREASE AS TOTAL WATER LEVELS WOULD SIMILARLY INCREASE.
IN THE ABSENCE OF STRONG TIDAL DEPARTURES ON THURSDAY, COASTAL
FLOOD ISSUES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED.
KEY MESSAGE 3: NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN ON
THURSDAY, WARMING UP FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
THE BRIEF BREAK FROM THE HEAT CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY, WITH
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS STRONG RIDGING BUILDS ALOFT
THURSDAY AND REMAINING ELEVATED INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL
BUILD BACK UP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 90S ON THURSDAY, AND WITH
DEWPOINTS REMAINING IN THE LOWER TO UPPER 70S (HIGHEST ALONG THE
COAST), WIDESPREAD HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 100+ RETURN TO THE REGION.
AREAS ALONG THE COAST MAY BREACH THE 108 DEG F MARK FOR A FEW HOURS,
BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAT ADVISORIES. EXPECT A MARGINALLY
WARMER DAY FOR FRIDAY AS HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 90S EXPAND,
WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING FAIRLY STEADY THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND.
ADDITIONAL HEAT ADVISORIES MAY THUS BE NEEDED EACH DAY, PARTICULARLY
FOR THOSE ALONG THE COAST. AS FOR RAIN CHANCES, TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE AFTERNOON
SEA BREEZE DISSIPATING INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT CHS/JZI/SAV TERMINALS THROUGH
09Z, BEFORE PREVAILING FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE NEAR THE COAST EARLY
MORNING, SUPPORTING TEMPO IFR CONDITIONS AT JZI BETWEEN 11-16Z DURING
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. PROB30 GROUPS ALSO REMAIN INTACT AT
CHS/JZI/SAV TERMINALS FOR AFTERNOON SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM AND FLIGHT
RESTRICTION ACTIVITY BETWEEN 18/19Z TO 22/23Z. VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD THEN RETURN DURING MID EVENING HOURS AND PERSIST THROUGH
06Z WEDNESDAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL
DECREASE WEDNESDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND, THOUGH ISOLATED RISKS OF
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS WILL REMAIN.
MARINE
TODAY - WEDNESDAY: A WEAK FRONT/BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN IN THE VICINITY
INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, WHICH WILL CONTINUE CHANCES FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. SURFACE
FLOW WILL BE VARIABLE AS A RESULT OF THE FRONT. IN GENERAL, STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED, THOUGH AN ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
THURSDAY - SATURDAY: WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ON THURSDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH WINDS AND
SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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