830
FXUS62 KCHS 010219
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1019 PM EDT SAT MAY 31 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVER THE WEEKEND AND PREVAIL
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/
LATE THIS EVENING: SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR AND VERY QUIET
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. LOWS ARE
FORECAST TO FALL INTO THE LOW 60S INLAND OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/
ALOFT, THE REGION WILL REMAIN ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE EAST CONUS SUNDAY,
BEFORE A NOTABLE H5 SHORTWAVE ROUNDS ITS SOUTHWESTERN EDGE AND
APPROACHES THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES, BUT LIKELY TRACKS JUST
SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA MONDAY, THEN FAR OFFSHORE TUESDAY. MID-
LVL RIDGING THEN TAKES PLACE ON TUESDAY, WITH ITS AXIS
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. AT THE SFC, HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SLOWLY BUILD ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY, THEN PERSIST THROUGH
TUESDAY, IN WAKE A FRONT POSITIONED WELL OFFSHORE AND SOUTH OF
THE REGION. THE PRESENCE OF THE HIGH AND NORTHWEST DOWNSLOPE
WIND ALOFT WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS FOR MOST AREAS
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATING A
FAIRLY LARGE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IN THE LOW-MID LVLS LOCALLY.
HOWEVER, THERE APPEARS TO BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHOWER AND/OR
THUNDERSTORM MONDAY AFTERNOON, MAINLY ALONG A SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATION ACROSS SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA WHEN PEAK H5 VORT
ENERGY TRAVERSES NEAR THE AREA.
THE PRESENCE OF A THE DRY DOWNSLOPE PATTERN ALONG WITH RIDGING
TAKING PLACE BY TUESDAY SUGGESTS A WARMING TREND EARLY WEEK,
WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID-UPPER 80S SUNDAY, PEAKING IN THE
UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S MONDAY AND TUESDAY. STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING NIGHTS UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT/CALM WINDS SHOULD
FAVOR LOWS IN THE LOW- MID 60S INLAND TO UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S AT
THE BEACHES.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
ALOFT, MID-LVL RIDGING WILL PREVAIL OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED
STATES MID-WEEK, LIKELY REMAINING IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER
PATTERN THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY, BEFORE BEGINNING TO SHIFT
OFFSHORE FRIDAY WHILE H5 SHORTWAVE ENERGY ADVANCES ACROSS THE
DEEP SOUTH. AT THE SFC, HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHED ACROSS THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC AND ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WILL FAVOR AN ONSHORE
FLOW, USHERING MOISTURE INTO THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH LATE WEEK.
THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING LOW-LVL MOISTURE, ABUNDANT SFC
HEATING, AND APPROACHING MID-LVL ENERGY SHOULD YIELD DIURNAL
CONVECTION (SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS) AS EARLY AS THURSDAY, BUT
MORE LIKELY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL, GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY, AND LOWER 90S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. LOWS WILL ALSO BE
MILD, GENERALLY IN THE MID-UPPER 60S INLAND TO LOW-MID 70S NEAR
THE COAST TUESDAY NIGHT, WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT,
THEN MAINLY IN THE LOW-MID 70S ACROSS MOST AREAS THIS WEEKEND.
AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KCHS, KJZI, AND KSAV THROUGH
00Z MONDAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
MARINE
TONIGHT: OVERNIGHT, QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OFFSHORE WITH
WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 10-15 KT AND SEAS AVERAGING 2-3 FEET.
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: ALOFT, THE REGION WILL REMAIN ALONG
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A BROAD TROUGH SUNDAY, BEFORE A H5
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE SOUTHEAST, BUT REMAINS INLAND AND SOUTH
OF LOCAL WATERS THROUGH EARLY WEEK. AT THE SFC, A FRONT WILL
REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE AND SOUTH OF LOCAL WATERS, LEAVING HIGH
PRESSURE TO DOMINATE THE PATTERN EARLY WEEK. OTHER THAN A FEW
SHOWERS OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPING ALONG AN AFTERNOON
SEA BREEZE AND POTENTIALLY DRIFTING OFFSHORE, MARINE CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUIET, WITH LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS EACH
MORNING (LAND BREEZE), BECOMING ONSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON
(SEA BREEZE), PEAKING IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE, ALTHOUGH A FEW
GUSTS TO 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST
WITH A SEA BREEZE DEVELOPING EACH DAY. SEAS WILL GENERALLY RANGE
BETWEEN 1-2 FT.
BY MID-WEEK, MID-LVL RIDGING BECOMES CENTERED ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS WHILE AN AXIS OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS STRETCHED
FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TO THE CAROLINAS, JUST NORTH OF LOCAL
WATERS. THE PATTERN WILL STEER WINDS ONSHORE BOTH DAY AND NIGHT
MID-WEEK, WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE ACROSS
MOST WATERS, ALTHOUGH A SLIGHTLY TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT COULD
LEAD TO GUSTS UP TO 20 KT ACROSS GEORGIA WATERS. THE LONG FETCH
SHOULD HELP BUILD SEAS MID-WEEK, APPROACHING 2-4 FT BY
THURSDAY.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
NEAR TERM...BSH
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...DPB
AVIATION...BSH/DPB
MARINE...BRS/DPB
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page