504
FXUS62 KCHS 120651
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
251 AM EDT TUE MAY 12 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ALL SECTIONS WERE UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA COAST TODAY, WITH A MODERATE RISK FOR THE
SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA BEACHES.
- 2) ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY SOUTH OF I-16 THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. DRY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE NORMAL
THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED ALONG
THE SOUTHEAST GEORGIA COAST TODAY, WITH A MODERATE RISK FOR THE
SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA BEACHES.
GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS, A STRONG LONGSHORE CURRENT, AND BUILDING
SURF WITH BREAKER HEIGHTS REACHING 3-4 FT WILL SUPPORT DANGEROUS
RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS AT THE GEORGIA BEACHES TODAY. THE SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST MAINTAINS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS.
KEY MESSAGE 2: ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY SOUTH OF I-16
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. DRY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE
NORMAL THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
MID-LEVEL TROUGHING WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL OVER THE EAST COAST MID
TO LATE WEEK. THERE COULD BE ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS MAINLY SOUTH OF
I-16 THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, WHILE AREAS NORTH OF THAT SHOULD
BE RAIN-FREE. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. BUT
MINIMAL, IF ANY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITH IT. THOUGH, IT SHOULD
BRING CRITICAL RH VALUES THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, WINDS WON'T BE
STRONG THURSDAY AFTERNOON, LIMITING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
OTHERWISE, EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES INITIALLY NEAR NORMAL WILL TREND TO ABOVE NORMAL.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
12/06Z TAF DISCUSSION:
KJZI/KCHS: LINGERING MVFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST FOR ANOTHER HOUR
OR SO BEFORE LIFTING TO VFR AROUND 7Z. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS
WILL PREVAIL IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT, WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 KT
COMMON THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING AROUND SUNSET
THIS EVENING.
KSAV: A LOW STRATUS DECK WITH MVFR CEILINGS BETWEEN 2000-3000 FT WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE,
NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL SPREAD INTO SOUTHEAST GEORGIA EARLY THIS
MORNING. VCSH WAS INTRODUCED BEGINNING AT 15Z, AS THE BULK OF
THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE TERMINAL.
SOME LIGHT RAIN COULD REACH THE AIRFIELD AND MAY EVENTUALLY
WARRANT A PERIOD OF -SHRA, BUT CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW FOR
INCLUSION IN THIS ISSUANCE. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY, WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 KT
BEFORE EASING AROUND SUNSET.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: THERE ARE LOW PROBABILITIES OF FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING.
MARINE
TODAY AND TONIGHT: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT INTO
TONIGHT FOR GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT. SEAS
WILL RAPIDLY BUILD THIS MORNING, PEAKING THIS EVENING BETWEEN
4-7 FT ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS (0-20 NM) AND 7-8 ACROSS THE
OUTER WATERS (20-60 NM). MARINE CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE
LATE TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD. SCAS WILL END
FIRST FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS LATE TONIGHT, AND THEN THE OUTER
GEORGIA WATERS WEDNESDAY MORNING.
EXTENDED MARINE: LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS OFFSHORE ON WEDNESDAY,
BRINGING MINIMAL ADDITIONAL IMPACTS TO OUR WATERS. A COLD FRONT
SHOULD QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS THURSDAY MORNING. THOUGH,
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULDN'T BE HIGH ENOUGH TO PROMPT SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD PREVAIL THEREAFTER.
RIP CURRENTS: SEE KEY MESSAGE #1 ADDRESSING TODAY.
WEDNESDAY: THE COMBINATION OF STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
AND ELEVATED SEAS WILL YIELD AN INCREASED THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS.
OUR INTERNAL CALCULATOR POINTS TOWARDS A LOW TO MODERATE RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS AT OUR BEACHES. HOWEVER, EXPERIMENTAL RCMOS POINTS TO A
BORDERLINE HIGH/MODERATE RISK AT ALL OF OUR BEACHES DURING THE
AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE VARIATION, WE UPPED THE RISK TO MODERATE FOR
OUR GA BEACHES, AND LEFT THE RISK LOW FOR OUR SC BEACHES. BUT THIS
WILL NEED TO BE REEVALUATED.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
EVENING FOR GAZ217-219-239-241.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ360-362-
364.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ384.
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