508
FXUS62 KCHS 011844
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
244 PM EDT MON JUN 1 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ALL SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL REMAIN A THREAT FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA THROUGH
TUESDAY.
- 2) MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE CHARLESTON
AND COLLETON COUNTY COASTLINE WITH THE TUESDAY EVENING HIGH
TIDE.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL REMAIN A THREAT FOR
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA
THROUGH TUESDAY.
THROUGH TONIGHT: NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST IN THE MID-LEVELS
WHILE A SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. SOUTH OF
THE FRONT, THERE REMAINS A LOT OF MOISTURE, WITH PWATS PEAKING
IN THE 1.5-1.75" RANGE ACROSS OUR AREA. THE CAMS HAVE BEEN VERY
INCONSISTENT REGARDING THE LOCATION, TIMING, AND EVOLUTION OF
THE CONVECTION OVER THE UPCOMING HOURS. THEREFORE, WE WENT WITH
A BLEND OF WHAT RADAR SHOWS THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH WHERE MOST
OF THE CAMS POINT TO CONVECTION. STORM MOTION REMAINS SLOW AND
WHEN COMBINED WITH WARM CLOUD PROCESSES, RAINFALL EFFICIENCY IS
QUITE HIGH. THE MAIN CONCERN FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE FOR
URBANIZED AREAS ALONG THE SC COAST INTO THIS EVENING. CONVECTION
SHOULD DECREASE LATE TONIGHT.
TUESDAY: A COLD FRONT WILL SINK SOUTH OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY, AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. ALOFT, A MID LEVEL TROUGH
WILL EXTEND INTO THE SOUTHEAST WITH A SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE BASE
LATER IN THE DAY. GUIDANCE IS STILL A BIT MIXED ON CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY, BUT WE SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY BEFORE DRIER AIR
WORKS IN FROM THE NORTH AND ACTIVITY EVENTUALLY PUSHES SOUTH OF THE
ALTAMAHA RIVER. THERE COULD BE POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL, BUT THE
FLOODING THREAT LOOKS LOW AND FOCUSED MORE TO THE SOUTH.
KEY MESSAGE 2: MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE
CHARLESTON AND COLLETON COUNTY COASTLINE WITH THE TUESDAY EVENING
HIGH TIDE.
GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTHEAST SC COAST ON
TUESDAY BEHIND A PASSING COLD FRONT. THIS NORTHEAST FLOW WILL
PRODUCE A SURGE IN TIDE LEVELS, ESPECIALLY AROUND THE TIME OF THE
TUESDAY EVENING HIGH TIDE (OCCURRING AROUND 1015 PM). THE
ASTRONOMICAL TIDE LEVEL IS 5.5 FT MLLW, SO IT WOULD REQUIRE A RATHER
ANOMALOUS 1.5 FT DEPARTURE TO REACH THE MINOR COASTAL FLOOD
THRESHOLD OF 7 FT MLLW. FOR CONTEXT, HISTORICAL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT
A DEPARTURE OF 1.5 FT OR HIGHER HAS ONLY OCCURRED WITH ~7% OF ALL
MINOR COASTAL FLOOD EVENTS ON RECORD. STILL, MINOR COASTAL FLOODING
IS POSSIBLE, AND A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY COULD BE NEEDED FOR THE
CHARLESTON AND COLLETON COUNTY COASTS.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
18Z TAFS:
KCHS AND KJZI: MVFR CEILINGS CONTINUE TO PERSIST. THEY ARE
EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR IN THE UPCOMING HOURS. THOUGH, THE
EXACT TIMING OF THIS TRANSITION IS A LITTLE UNCERTAIN. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN SCATTERED IN COVERAGE THROUGH THIS
EVENING. BUT THE PROBABILITIES OF DIRECT IMPACTS REMAIN TOO LOW
TO ADD A TEMPO GROUP. INSTEAD, WE'RE MAINTAINING VCSH.
AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED BASED ON FUTURE RADAR AND SATELLITE
TRENDS. MVFR STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, FOLLOWED BY VCSH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
KSAV: MVFR CEILINGS CONTINUE TO PERSIST. THEY ARE EXPECTED TO
IMPROVE TO VFR IN THE UPCOMING HOURS. THOUGH, THE EXACT TIMING
OF THIS TRANSITION IS A LITTLE UNCERTAIN. MVFR STRATUS IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING, FOLLOWED BY VCSH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: PERIODIC FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY DUE TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. PATCHY OVERNIGHT FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE.
MARINE
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT. THE TIME PERIOD OF MOST CONCERN IS
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH INTO THE
REGION, LEADING TO INCREASING NORTHEAST WINDS AND SEAS. SOLID
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL WATERS.
THERE IS EVEN A PERIOD WHERE GUSTS COULD APPROACH GALE FORCE
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, PARTICULARLY IN THE OUTER
WATERS BEYOND 20 NM, BUT THIS THREAT LOOKS TOO MARGINAL FOR ANY
GALE WATCHES AT THIS POINT. WHILE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, 6 FT SEAS COULD MAINTAIN
ADVISORIES FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS INTO AT LEAST PART OF THE
DAY THURSDAY. NO CONCERNS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
RIP CURRENTS: GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS AND INCREASING SWELL WILL LEAD
TO AN ENHANCED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS THROUGH MID WEEK. A MODERATE
RISK IS FORECAST AT ALL AREA BEACHES FOR TUESDAY. ON WEDNESDAY, THE
FORECAST FEATURES A MODERATE RISK ACROSS SC BEACHES AND A HIGH RISK
AT GA BEACHES.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 5 AM EDT THURSDAY
FOR AMZ360.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 5 AM EDT THURSDAY
FOR AMZ362.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM TUESDAY TO 11 AM EDT THURSDAY
FOR AMZ364.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM TUESDAY TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY
FOR AMZ384.
ETM
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