843
FXUS62 KCHS 010140
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
840 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2026
..AREAS OF DENSE FOG POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING
WHAT HAS CHANGED
A DENSE FOG KEY MESSAGE WAS ADDED FOR TONIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING.
THE AVIATION SECTION WAS ADDED TO ADDRESS THE 29/00Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG AGAIN TONIGHT. DENSE FOG
POSSIBLE.
- 2) NOTABLE TEMPERATURE SWINGS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
- 3) WARM TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES OF RAIN FOR LATE NEXT WEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG AGAIN TONIGHT. DENSE
FOG POSSIBLE.
INCOMING GUIDANCE IS TRENDING FOGGIER OVERNIGHT AS CLOUDS
STEADILY THIN OUT. CLOUDS WILL LINGER THE LONGEST OVER THE
CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY (ESPECIALLY CHARLESTON COUNTY), BUT THIS
WHERE SIGNS ARE INDICATING MORE OF A STRATUS BUILD-DOWN FOG
EVENT VERSUS A RADIATIONAL FOG EVENT ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. THE MENTION OF DENSE FOG WAS EXPANDED A BIT
FARTHER TO THE EAST AND A DENSE FOG ADVISORY COULD BE NEEDED
OVERNIGHT.
CONDITIONS WILL FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MIXTURE OF
RADIATIONAL FOG AND FOG RESULTING FROM STRATUS BUILD-DOWN
OVERNIGHT. THE LOWEST 1000 HPA CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS
ARE PROGGED TO OCCUR ROUGHLY ALONG/WEST OF I-95. WHILE MOST OF
THE GUIDANCE IS TRENDING TOWARDS A FOGGIER SOLUTION OVERNIGHT,
THERE ARE STILL A FEW STUBBORN MEMBERS WHO SUGGEST FOG WILL NOT
BE MUCH OF A CONCERN OVERNIGHT. GIVEN LIGHT WINDS, LINGERING
STRATUS AND FAVORABLE CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS, THE
FOGGIER SOLUTIONS SEEM MORE PROBABLE AT THIS TIME. MOTORISTS
ARE URGED TO SLOW DOWN AND LEAVE EXTRA DISTANCE AHEAD OF YOU IN
CASE A SUDDEN STOP IS NEEDED WHENEVER FOG IS ENCOUNTERED.
KEY MESSAGE 2: NOTABLE TEMPERATURE SWINGS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THE MID-LEVELS WILL CONSIST OF TROUGHING OVER THE EAST COAST
THIS EVENING. IT'LL GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO ZONAL FLOW BY LATE
MONDAY, FOLLOWED BY RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH
OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT, FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE PASSING TO OUR
NORTH ON MONDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE QUITE A SWING IN TEMPERATURES.
FOLLOWING LOWS NEAR NORMAL IN THE 40S TONIGHT, TEMPERATURES
WILL RISE WELL ABOVE NORMAL ON SUNDAY, INTO THE MID 70S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS (EXCEPT COOLER AT THE BEACHES), THEN REMAINING A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY NIGHT. THE WEDGE PATTERN WILL LEAD
TO A DRASTIC TEMPERATURES GRADIENT ON TUESDAY. HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S NEAR THE SANTEE RIVER, RISING TO
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S NEAR THE ALTAMAHA RIVER. BUT GIVEN THIS
SYNOPTIC SETUP, THERE IS A HIGH PROBABILITY FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO BE DRASTICALLY DIFFERENT FOR ANY PARTICULAR SPOT
ON MONDAY. THOUGH, LOW TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE
WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL. HIGH TEMPERATURES RISE BACK
ABOVE NORMAL ON TUESDAY, RANGING FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S
AWAY FROM THE BEACHES. THE WARMING TREND CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY
WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS MOST OF OUR
AREA (EXCEPT COOLER AT THE BEACHES), AND POSSIBLY THE LOWER 80S
ACROSS PORTIONS OF INLAND GA SOUTH OF I-16.
KEY MESSAGE 3: WARM TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES OF RAIN FOR LATE
NEXT WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
THE REGION WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE, BOTH
AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT, CENTERED OFFSHORE LATE NEXT WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR WARMING TEMPERATURES.
THERE IS A FAIRLY SMALL SPREAD IN MAX TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE, WITH
UPPER 70S TO EVEN LOW 80S LIKELY IN MOST LOCATIONS AWAY FROM
THE IMMEDIATE COAST. EARLY MARCH NORMALS ARE IN THE UPPER 60S,
SO THESE VALUES WOULD BE AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. LOWS
WILL ALSO TREND ON THE MORE MILD SIDE, IN THE UPPER 50S TO
AROUND 60.
DEEPER MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO THE AREA WITH ENSEMBLE MEANS
INDICATING PWATS CLIMBING TO AROUND 1.1", WHICH FALLS IN THE
85-90TH PERCENTILE OF CLIMO. WHILE LARGER SCALE FORCING IS
LACKING, MOISTURE AND SOME INSTABILITY COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS DEVELOPING, ESPECIALLY IN
THE AFTERNOONS AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING. NBM INDICATES ONLY A
10-20% CHANCE FOR >0.25" OF RAIN IN ANY 24 HOUR PERIOD DURING
THIS TIME FRAME. SEVERE AND FLOODING RISK LOOKS MINIMAL AT THIS
TIME.
AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
29/00Z TAF DISCUSSION:
KCHS/KJZI: LOW STRATUS WITH IFR CIGS HAS BEEN SLOW TO CLEAR
TODAY. THESE CIGS WILL LIKELY LINGER THROUGH MID-EVENING BEFORE
SCOURING OUT. SOME SHALLOW GROUND FOG COULD DEVELOP PRIOR TO
DAYBREAK WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE. CONDENSATION
PRESSURE DEFICITS ARE HIGH, SO DENSE FOG IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIFR CIGS JUST BEFORE
DAYBREAK, SO CONFIDENCE ON THIS IS LOW. VFR WILL RETURN SHORTLY
AFTER DAYBREAK SUNDAY AND LINGER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
00Z TAF PERIOD.
KSAV: CLOUDS WILL SCATTER OUT THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS LOOKS
FAVORABLE FOR FOG TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY AFTER 06Z.
NEAR TERM GUIDANCE IS TRENDING PRETTY FOGGY AND THE 00Z TAF WAS
TRENDED IN THAT DIRECTION. EXPECT PREVAILING 2SM IN BR BY 08Z
WITH VSBYS DROPPING AS LOW AS 1/2SM AT TIMES 10-13Z. THERE IS
ABOUT ~40% CHANCE THAT PREVAILING VSBYS WILL DROP TO 1/2SM OR
LOWER AFTER 10Z, SO AMENDMENTS MAY BECOME NECESSARY AS TRENDS
BECOME MORE APPARENT. THE FOG/LOW CLOUDS SHOULD MIX OUT A FEW
HOURS AFTER DAYBREAK WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THERE AFTER.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: VFR.
MARINE
DENSE FOG MAY MAKE A RUN FOR THE CHARLESTON HARBOR EARLY SUNDAY
AND A MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A DRY COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT, FOLLOWED
BY HIGH PRESSURE PASSING TO OUR NORTH ON MONDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE
A SURGE IN NORTHWEST WINDS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE
NEEDED FOR ALL OF THE OCEAN ZONES FROM MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT WIND GUSTS APPROACHING 35 KT ACROSS
THE CHARLESTON WATERS, SO A GALE WATCH MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED.
WINDS TREND LOWER LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, THOUGH SEAS
WILL BE SLOWER TO SUBSIDE. ADVISORIES WOULD EXPIRE FOR THE
WATERS WITHIN 20 NM FIRST, AND THEN THE GA WATERS BEYOND 20 NM,
POSSIBLY NOT UNTIL WEDNESDAY.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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