332
FXUS62 KCHS 022107
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
507 PM EDT THU APR 2 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AN UPDATE WAS ISSUED AROUND 02/20Z TO INTRODUCE A MENTION OF
ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY,
MAINLY OVER CENTRAL/UPPER PORTIONS OF CHARLESTON COUNTY AND
SOUTHERN/EASTERN PORTIONS OF BERKELEY COUNTY. KCLX SHOWS
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS, MOSTLY LIGHT IN NATURE, POISED TO
MOVE ONSHORE THERE. THE RISK FOR SOME LIGHT MEASURABLE RAINFALL
WILL PERSIST UNTIL ABOUT AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER SUNSET.
THE AVIATION SECTION WAS UPDATED TO REFLECT THE 03/00Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE, WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH SATURDAY.
- 2) A COLD FRONT COULD BRING INCREASED RAIN CHANCES LATE THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE, WITH ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH
SATURDAY.
STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL
CONTINUE TO EXTEND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE FIRST
PART OF THE WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE, THE SUB-TROPICAL HIGH WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY INFLUENCE. THERE ARE HINTS IN HI-RES
GUIDANCE THAT WE COULD SEE A BIT OF DIURNAL CONVECTION,
ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER MODEL SOUNDINGS AREN'T
PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE SHOWING WEAK INSTABILITY AND WARM
PROFILES. WITHIN THE BROADER ONSHORE FLOW, WE COULD SEE ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOP BEGINNING AROUND MIDDAY OR
EARLY AFTERNOON, THEN PROGRESS INLAND THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON. HARD TO EXPECT MUCH MORE THAN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
COVERAGE, WITH ONLY LIMITED POTENTIAL OF SEEING A THUNDERSTORM
OR TWO. SATURDAY LOOKS EVEN LESS SUPPORTIVE, WITH A NOTABLE MID-
LEVEL INVERSION. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR
EARLY APRIL, WITH LOW TO MID 80S INLAND OF THE COASTAL CORRIDOR.
KEY MESSAGE 2: A COLD FRONT COULD BRING INCREASED RAIN CHANCES
LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AS NOTED IN DAYS PAST, A BROAD MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND SFC COLD
FRONT WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK, RESULTING IN INCREASED CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION. THAT BEING SAID, SHOULD SEE LARGELY DRY
CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT LEAST THROUGH LATE-MORNING SUNDAY AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT LINGERS ACROSS THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY.
RAIN CHANCES THEN INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
THE BOUNDARY PUSHES SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE ATLANTIC. WHILE
WIND FIELDS DO LOOK TO GRADUALLY INCREASE, THERE ISN'T MUCH
INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH, WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE THREAT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER LOW. IN REGARD TO PRECIPITATION, OVERALL MOISTURE
WITH THIS SYSTEM STILL REMAINS RATHER MEAGER, WITH MOST
GUIDANCE SUPPORTING ACCUMULATIONS LESS THAN 0.5 INCH. THUS, DO
NOT EXPECT TO SEE ANY SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENTS TO THE ONGOING
DROUGHT CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME.
NOTABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES LOOK TO RETURN MONDAY IN THE WAKE
OF FROPA, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO 70S
CONTINUING THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. A SECONDARY MID-LEVEL
WAVE MAY DIVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS LATE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY, RESULTING IN A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AND ADDITIONAL RAIN
CHANCES. HOWEVER, MODEL CERTAINTY WITH THIS FEATURE REMAINS
POOR, MAKING IT DIFFICULT TO PUT TOO MUCH CONFIDENCE BEHIND ANY
ONE SOLUTION JUST YET. CERTAINLY SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON IN
THE COMING DAYS.
AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
03/00Z TAF DISCUSSION:
KCHS/KJZI/KSAV: VFR FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE RISK FOR AN
ISOLATED SHOWERS NEAR KCHS AND KJZI WILL LINGER THROUGH ABOUT
02Z. SHALLOW GROUND FOG COULD DEVELOP JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK,
MAINLY AT KSAV. NO MAJOR IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED. THERE IS A LOW-
END RISK FOR A SHOWER OR TSTM TO IMPACT MAINLY KCHS AND KSAV
WITH THE SEA BREEZE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. PROBABILITIES ARE TOO LOW
THIS FAR OUT TO INCLUDE A MENTION AT THIS TIME.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: THERE WILL BE INCREASED CHANCES FOR
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ASSOCIATED WITH FROPA SUNDAY INTO EARLY
MONDAY.
MARINE
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT: OVERALL, CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN
PRETTY QUIET AND BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE PRIMARILY ONSHORE WITH SPEEDS MOSTLY TOPPING
OUT IN THE 10-15 KNOT RANGE. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 2-4 FEET
ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND 3-5 FEET ACROSS THE OUTER
WATERS.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY: A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, PRODUCING GUSTY NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS ACROSS OUR WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY ACROSS A MAJORITY OF OUR LOCAL
WATERS STARTING MONDAY AND COULD PERSIST WITH A SECOND
FRONT/ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT ARRIVING/DEVELOPING INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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