907
FXUS62 KCHS 101812
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
212 PM EDT SUN MAY 10 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ALL SECTIONS UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER COULD CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY. A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY COULD BECOME SEVERE.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER COULD CONTINUE INTO
TUESDAY. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY COULD BECOME SEVERE.
THROUGH TONIGHT: ALOFT, NEARLY ZONAL FLOW WILL CONTINUE WHILE A
SUBTLE STATIONARY SURFACE BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO STRETCH WEST-EAST
ALONG THE GULF COAST. MORNING LIGHT RAIN HAS COMPLETELY DISSIPATED
AND THE OVERALL OUTLOOK THROUGH THE EVENING IS FOR MINIMAL DIURNAL
CONVECTION. THOUGH TEMPERATURES ARE ON TRACK TO PEAK IN THE MID 80S
THIS AFTERNOON, MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE QUITE UNIMPRESSIVE WITH MEAGER
LAPSE RATES. IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY BROAD FORCING OR SOURCE OF LOW-
LEVEL CONVERGENCE, DIURNAL DEVELOPMENT WILL BE DEPENDENT ON SURFACE
HEATING. THE BEST CHANCE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-16 WHERE SOME
INSTABILITY COULD POOL. HI-RES MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR LITTLE TO NO
ACTIVITY WITH NO REAL SEVERE WEATHER RISK. OVERNIGHT, AN UPSTREAM
COLD FRONT WILL DRAW CLOSER BUT WE SHOULD REMAIN DRY.
MONDAY: A SHIFT FROM ZONAL FLOW TO BROAD TROUGHING WILL DEVELOP INTO
MONDAY AS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS EASTWARD OVER THE GREAT LAKES
AND TOWARDS THE EAST COAST. ALONG THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF THE BROAD
TROUGH, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
REGION FROM THE WEST, PUSHING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY
EVENING. GUIDANCE IS A BIT SPLIT ON THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE CURRENT
FORECAST FEATURES POPS 50-60% ROUGHLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-95 THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS FORECAST LEANS MORE TOWARDS THE 12Z 3KM
NAM, NBM, AND RRFS, WHICH DEPICTS CONVECTION OF ALMOST A SUMMERTIME
PATTERN AND POP-UP IN NATURE. THE 12Z HRRR IS UNIMPRESSIVE WITH
PRECIPITATION, ACTUALLY KEEPING MOST OF THE REGION DRY AND ONLY
DEPICTING ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTORMS. WHILE THIS SOLUTION IS LESS
LIKELY, GIVEN THE ONGOING DROUGHT, IT SHOULDN'T BE COMPLETELY
DISREGARDED.
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT MOISTURE WILL SURGE INTO THE
REGION, WITH PWATS REACHING ~1.5" WHICH WOULD BE ABOVE THE 75TH
PERCENTILE ACCORDING TO SPC CLIMATOLOGY. BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER
THROUGH THE MORNING WILL ALLOW THE SUNSHINE TO REACH MOST LOCATIONS
ACROSS THE REGION, AIDING IN DESTABILIZING THE ATMOSPHERE. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT ML CAPE COULD REACH BETWEEN 500-1000 J/KG IN
THE AFTERNOON. THE SPC HAS INCLUDED THE ENTIRE CWA IN A MARGINAL
RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR THE SEVERE POTENTIAL ON MONDAY. GIVEN THE
CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS THIS IS REASONABLE. THE MAIN HAZARD WILL BE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, HOWEVER SOME HAIL OR EVEN A WEAK ISOLATED
TORNADO CAN'T BE RULED OUT. THE GREATEST TORNADO RISK IS ALONG THE
COASTLINE, WHERE BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS WITH THE SEA BREEZE COULD
LEAD TO SOME ROTATION.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT KCHS, KJZI, AND KSAV
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY. THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF SHALLOW GROUND FOG
RIGHT AROUND SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING, BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY
SIGNIFICANT VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS APPEARS TO BE LOW. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD,
BUT THE BEST CHANCES WILL EXTEND BEYOND 18Z.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: SOME RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
MORNING WITH LINGERING SHOWERS/TSTORMS. VFR WILL RETURN LATER
TUESDAY AND PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT: QUIET CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL
WATERS. A MODEST SEA BREEZE SHOULD RESULT IN 10-15 KNOTS ALONG THE
LAND/SEA INTERFACE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. THEN
OVERNIGHT, 5-10 KNOT SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL. SEAS SHOULD
AVERAGE AROUND 2 FEET THROUGH THE PERIOD.
EXTENDED MARINE: WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON MONDAY. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE WATERS MONDAY EVENING, THEN QUICKLY SHIFT OFFSHORE MONDAY
NIGHT. THERE WILL BE A SURGE OF WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS BEHIND
THE FRONT, LEADING TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR AT LEAST THE
INNER WATERS. GALE CONDITIONS CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR THE OUTER
WATERS MONDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY IMPROVE LATE
TUESDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
BECOMES THE DOMINANT SYNOPTIC FEATURE.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page