341
FXUS62 KCHS 230651
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
251 AM EDT THU JUL 23 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.
THE MARINE SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR LATEST RIP CURRENT RISK
TRENDS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) SMOKE FROM THE HORSE ISLAND WILDFIRE WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF
BERKELEY COUNTY TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
- 2) HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ACROSS COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA AND
GEORGIA TODAY.
- 3) A SLOW-MOVING FRONT WILL DRIFT INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH
AND BRING INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LATE THIS WEEKEND AND INTO THE WEEKEND. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL BE POSSIBLE AND COULD BRING A RISK OF FLOODING TO
PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: SMOKE FROM THE HORSE ISLAND WILDFIRE WILL IMPACT
NORTHEAST BERKELEY COUNTY TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
THE HORSE ISLAND WILDFIRE NEAR SHULERVILLE, SC HAS INCREASED TO 1200
ACRES. A DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY HAS BEEN REQUESTED BY THE U.S. FOREST
SERVICE FOR PORTIONS OF BERKELEY COUNTY IN RESPONSE TO THE WILDFIRE
SMOKE. THE LATEST HYSPLIT OUTPUT SHOWS THE WORST OF THE SMOKE WILL
REMAIN ACROSS BERKELEY COUNTY, FROM JAMESTOWN TO THE CHARLESTON
BORDER, EXTENDING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE SANTEE RIVER INTO PORTIONS OF
GEORGETOWN AND WILLIAMSBURG COUNTIES. VISIBILITIES MAY DROP BELOW 1
MILE AT TIMES OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY ALONG PARTS OF HIGHWAY 45. ROAD
CLOSURES ARE POSSIBLE. SMOKE WILL LIKELY REMAIN AN ISSUE INTO
THURSDAY ALTHOUGH VISIBILITIES SHOULD IMPROVE SOME BY MID-MORNING AS
DISPERSION INCREASES AND MIXING HEIGHTS RISE.
KEY MESSAGE 2: HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ACROSS COASTAL SOUTH
CAROLINA AND GEORGIA CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND.
ONE LAST DAY OF HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS
DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW CONTINUES. DEEP MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO SURGE NORTHWARD AND POOL ALONG A SLOWLY SAGGING
BOUNDARY BY THE WEEKEND. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SLOW THE
BOUNDARY APPROACH AND HAVE IT STALL OVER THE AREA BY THE
WEEKEND. AS A RESULT OF THE SLOWER ARRIVAL TIME, HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO REACH IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S
TODAY. WITH SOME DRIER AIR ALOFT, INTERIOR AREAS WILL CONTINUE
TO MIX OUT INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S FOR DEWPOINTS ONCE
AGAIN KEEPING HEAT INDICES INTO THE LOW TRIPLE DIGITS (100-105
RANGE). CLOSER TO THE COAST, THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE WILL LIKELY
REMAINED PINNED TO THE COAST UNTIL LATER IN THE AFTERNOON
MOVING INLAND AROUND 17 TO 18Z. BEHIND THE BOUNDARY, DEWPOINTS
WILL LIKELY CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES. THE
RISING DEWPOINTS COMBINED WITH MID TO UPPER 90S, HEAT INDEX
VALUES RIGHT ALONG THE COAST MAY RANGE FROM 105 TO 109 DEGREES.
HOWEVER, THE HIGHER HEAT INDICES WOULD LIKELY NOT LAST LONG
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT AN ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.
THE SLOW MOVING FRONT SHOULD PROVIDE SOME RELIEF TO THE AREA,
ESPECIALLY FURTHER NORTH AS RAIN SHOULD KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE LOW 90S TO POTENTIALLY UPPER 80S WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN
OCCURS. HOWEVER, THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL AND WASHOUT OVER
THE AREA DURING THE WEEKEND. AS A RESULT, MOISTURE WILL POOL
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY WITH MANY AREAS LIKELY NOT
SEEING AS MUCH RAIN AS ORIGINALLY EXPECT. DEEP MOISTURE CONTENT
THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN WOULD LIKELY RESULT IN DEWPOINTS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S AREA WIDE. DESPITE TEMPERATURES MAYBE HANGING
A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN THE LAST WEEK, INCREASED DEWPOINTS
SHOULD HELP SUSTAIN HEAT INDICES IN THE LOW 100S THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY THE FURTHER SOUTH INTO GEORGIA. THUS WHILE
SOME AREAS COULD SEE SOME TEMPORARY RELIEF FROM THE HEAT, OTHERS
WILL CONTINUE TO DEAL WITH THE HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WELL
INTO THE WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY NEXT WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 3: A SLOW-MOVING FRONT WILL DRIFT INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH AND BRING INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE
AND COULD BRING A RISK OF FLOODING TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE REGION, BEFORE
REACHING THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND STALLING IN THE VICINITY THOUGH THE
WEEKEND. AS MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH BERTHA COMBINES WITH AN ALREADY
MOIST AIRMASS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST, PWAT VALUES WILL INCREASE TO
AROUND 2.2 INCHES ON FRIDAY AND UP TO 2.5 INCHES THIS WEEKEND. THIS
DEEP MOISTURE COMBINED WITH THE PRESENCE OF THE FRONT WILL YIELD
INCREASED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL FAVOR
EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCTION AND AN INCREASED THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALIZED FLOODING. WHILE MOST FLOODING IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN MINOR, REPEATED HEAVY DOWNPOURS OVER URBAN AREAS SUCH AS THE
CHARLESTON, OR SAVANNAH METRO AREAS COULD WARRANT FLOOD ADVISORIES
AND/OR EVEN FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS.
THERE REMAINS SOME QUESTION REGARDING HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT WILL
MAKE IT, AND CURRENT MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THAT IT WILL MOSTLY
BECOME ALIGNED ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA COUNTIES. THE
SETUP IS EXPECTED TO FAVOR ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR
THE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY TIME PERIOD, WITH DRIER CONDITIONS
RETURNING BY SUNDAY.
ALTHOUGH STILL SUBJECT TO CHANGE, RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1-3 INCHES
APPEAR LIKELY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA
AND LESSER AMOUNTS ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. ADDITIONALLY, LOCALLY
HIGHER TOTALS WILL BE POSSIBLE WHERE THUNDERSTORMS REPEATEDLY TRAIN
OVER THE SAME LOCATION. THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER (WPC)
CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA IN A MARGINAL RISK
FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT, AND THEN THE
ENTIRE AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT CHS/JZI/SAV TERMINALS.
A SEA BREEZE SHOULD SHIFT ACROSS ALL TERMINALS THURSDAY AFTERNOON,
TURNING WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS SOUTH WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 KT MID-
LATE AFTERNOON.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: CHANCES OF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS INCREASE
LATER THIS WEEK WITH A GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
MARINE
THURSDAY (TODAY) THROUGH MONDAY: LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS
SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE REGION. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE EXPECTED TO END BY THIS
MORNING. THIS AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL STALL IN THE VICINITY ON
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND, YIELDING INCREASED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT MARINE CONDITIONS TO REMAIN RATHER BENIGN
THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD. SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 2 TO 3 FT.
RIP CURRENTS: THERE IS ALSO A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS FOR
CHARLESTON COUNTY BEACHES THROUGH THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH SURF IS
EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE A LITTLE BIT, A LONGER-PERIOD SWELL OF AROUND 8
SECONDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS. THERE IS
A LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR ALL BEACHES ON FRIDAY.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
JULY 23:
KCHS: 99/2015
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
JULY 22:
KCHS: 81/2011
KCXM: 83/2011
JULY 23:
KCHS: 80/1991
KCXM: 83/1952
JULY 24:
KCHS: 81/2024
JULY 25:
KCHS: 80/2011
KCXM: 82/2016
KSAV: 80/1893
JULY 26:
KCHS: 78/2025
JULY 28:
KCHS: 80/2025
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR SCZ045.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
AMZ360-362.
BLACK/DENNIS
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