067
FXUS62 KCHS 100135
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
935 PM EDT WED SEP 9 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ALL SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA
DAILY THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE
AT TIMES.
- 2) LOCALLY DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE ACROSS INLAND SOUTHEASTERN
GEORGIA LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
- 3) THE POTENTIAL FOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL PERSIST INTO FRIDAY,
PRIMARILY FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA COAST.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
IMPACT PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA
DAILY THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE AT
TIMES.
THROUGH TONIGHT: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION
FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL FAVOR A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW LOCALLY, WHICH
COULD ALLOW ISOLATED/SCATTERED COASTAL SHOWERS TO DRIFT ONSHORE AT
TIMES OVERNIGHT. ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN RATHER PROGRESSIVE WITH
LIGHTER PRECIP ACCUMULATIONS, BEFORE ERODING/DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT.
A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN TAKES HOLD THURSDAY AS SUBTROPICAL
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE EAST. THIS WILL SUPPORT DAILY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO PEAK
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRAVERSES THE
SOUTHEAST. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL TRANSPORT DEEP MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION BEGINNING THURSDAY, ELEVATING PWATS ABOVE 2.0 INCHES AND
SUPPORTING EFFICIENT RAINFALL RATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. INSTABILITY
LOOKS TO BE MODEST WITH DAILY SBCAPE VALUES PEAKING AROUND 2200-2500
J/KG. THIS COULD SUPPORT PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY
WITHIN THUNDERSTORMS, LEADING TO THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AND MINOR FLOODING ISSUES.
KEY MESSAGE 2: LOCALLY DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE ACROSS INLAND SOUTHEASTERN
GEORGIA LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
SFC WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT/CALM ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT WHILE
AMPLE MOISTURE (SFC DEWPTS IN THE LOW-MID 70S) REMAIN, SETTING UP AN
ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE FOR FOG NEAR LOCATIONS THAT EXPERIENCED SOME
RAIN/SHOWERS EARLIER TODAY. SOME GUIDANCE PLACES A FAVORABLE
STRETCH OF CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS ACROSS SOUTHERN SOUTHEAST
SOUTH CAROLINA INTO SOUTHEAST GEORGIA LATE TONIGHT, WHERE HREF
PROBABILITIES FOR VISIBILITIES <0.5 MI ARE GENERALLY AROUND 30%.
PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG IS POSSIBLE LATE NIGHT, SOME OF WHICH
COULD BECOME LOCALLY DENSE HEADING INTO DAYBREAK THURSDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 3: THE POTENTIAL FOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL PERSIST
INTO FRIDAY, PRIMARILY FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST.
ASTRONOMICAL TIDE LEVELS HAVE PEAKED WITH WITH THIS EVENING'S HIGH
TIDE, BUT WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS COULD SUPPORT
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA COAST
DURING THE NEXT 1-2 EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLES GIVEN RECENT POSITIVE
TIDAL DEPARTURES THAT WILL BE SLOW TO CHANGE WHILE WINDS WEAKEN AND
TURN MORE SOUTHERLY. THURSDAY EVENING SHOULD SEE THE BEST CHANCE FOR
REACHING 7.0 FT MLLW IN THE CHARLESTON HARBOR BEFORE CONDITIONS
IMPROVE FURTHER. A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY COULD EVENTUALLY BE
NEEDED.
AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT CHS/JZI/SAV TERMINALS THROUGH 00Z.
HOWEVER, THERE ARE FEW EXCEPTIONS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOG
COULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT, PARTICULARLY AT SAV
GIVEN RECENT RAINS AND LIGHT/CALM WINDS ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT. TEMPO
MVFR VSBYS HAVE BEEN INTRODUCED BETWEEN 09Z-13Z THURSDAY AT SAV. THE
NEXT ROUND OF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS COULD ARRIVE WITH SHOWERS AND/OR
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP DURING AFTERNOON HOURS THURSDAY. PROB30
GROUPS HAVE BEEN INTRODUCED BETWEEN 16-22Z AT JZI AND 17-23Z AT CHS
FOR SHOWERS AND MVFR CONDITIONS. AT SAV, A PROB30 GROUP HAS BEEN
ADDED FROM 17-23Z FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND MVFR CONDITIONS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: PERIODIC FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITHIN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT: EASTERLY FLOW BETWEEN 15-20 KT WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN
DURING EVENING HOURS, BECOMING EAST-SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 KT OR LESS
AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. SEAS BETWEEN 3-5 FT WILL ALSO SUBSIDE DURING
THE PERIOD, GENERALLY TO 2-4 FT BY LATE NIGHT.
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY: TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS ARRIVE
THURSDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND UNDER LIGHT SOUTHERLY
TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. SEAS WILL HOLD STEADY AT 2 TO 3 FEET
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
RIP CURRENTS: CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE WITH WINDS WEAKENING
AND TURNING MORE SOUTHERLY BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY. HOWEVER, LINGERING
SWELL AND THE LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW SUPPORTS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP
CURRENTS ALONG ALL BEACHES THURSDAY, BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO
A LOW RISK FRIDAY.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
BRS/CPM/DPB
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