121
FXUS62 KCHS 312329
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
729 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ALL SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) RAIN CHANCES ARE IN THE FORECAST MID WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE PASSES OVERHEAD, AND AGAIN THIS WEEKEND AS A COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION.
- 2) HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS RETURN TUESDAY AND CONTINUE INTO
THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: RAIN CHANCES ARE IN THE FORECAST MID WEEK AS AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES OVERHEAD, AND AGAIN THIS WEEKEND
AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION.
OVERNIGHT: THE FOCUS FOR NOCTURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ONCE AGAIN SHIFT OFFSHORE TO THE COASTAL WATERS. WE COULD
AGAIN SEE THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS ATTEMPT TO MOVE TOWARD SHORE
AS SUNRISE APPROACHES, BUT LIKELY DISSIPATE AND FALL JUST SHORT.
OTHERWISE, THE FORECAST IS QUIET FOR LAND AREAS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT.
REST OF THIS WEEK: MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL DOMINATE OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A MID-
LEVEL DISTURBANCE COULD APPROACH SOUTHEASTERN GA MID-WEEK,
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES SOUTH OF I-16 WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION THIS WEEKEND,
BRINGING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
KEY MESSAGE 2: HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS RETURN TUESDAY AND
CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.
ALOFT, A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM THE MIDWEST TO
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGIONS EARLY WEEK, BEGINNING A WARM-UP ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST MID TO LATE WEEK. ON TUESDAY, THE REGION WILL
START TO SLIDE UNDER THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE,
BRINGING WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S,
WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE UPPER 90S TO LOWER 100S. ON
WEDNESDAY, THE RIDGE AXIS REMAINS SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE LOCAL
AREA WITH WEAK H5 VORT ENERGY SHIFTING ONSHORE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST COAST LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, WHICH SHOULD
MAINTAIN SIMILAR HEAT/HUMIDITY CONDITIONS WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER
CHANCES OF PRECIP AND CLOUDS. HEADING INTO LATE WEEK A NOTABLE
INCREASE IN RIDGING OCCURS ALOFT, SUPPORTING WARMER TEMPS INTO
THE MID 90S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THESE TEMPS IN COMBINATION WITH
MID-UPPER 70 DEWPTS COULD POSSIBLY SUPPORT HEAT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE COASTAL CORRIDOR THIS WEEKEND, BEFORE A
COLD FRONT ARRIVES EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THE 00Z TAF PERIOD BEGINS WITH VFR CONDITIONS AT KCHS, KJZI, AND
KSAV. THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN REVOLVES AROUND THE POTENTIAL
FOR LOW STRATUS TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND RIGHT AROUND SUNRISE
TUESDAY. THERE ARE MIXED SIGNALS IN MODEL GUIDANCE WITH SOME
SOURCES BEING RATHER AGGRESSIVE IN THE COVERAGE OF IFR CEILINGS
AND OTHERS DEPICTING CONSIDERABLY LESS COVERAGE. OVERALL, THE
BEST CHANCE TO SEE A SHORT PERIOD OF IFR STRATUS LOOKS TO BE AT
KSAV. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE ISN'T PARTICULARLY HIGH SO WE HAVE KEPT
THE FORECAST VFR FOR NOW. ANY STRATUS THAT DOES DEVELOP SHOULD
DISSIPATE QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE AS SURFACE HEATING AND MIXING
COMMENCES. THE POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LOOK LOW OVERALL FOR TUESDAY SO WE HAVE NOT
INCLUDED ANY MENTION AT THIS TIME.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD
BRING BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WEDNESDAY, MAINLY AT THE SAV
TERMINAL. GREATER CHANCES FOR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ASSOCIATED
WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVE LATE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AT ALL TERMINALS (ESPECIALLY SAV) WITH WEAK COASTAL
TROUGHING AND MID-LVL ENERGY PASSING NEARBY.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT: BENIGN CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MARINE WATERS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TODAY, WITH SE WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS
THIS AFTERNOON SHIFTING TO THE NE BY TUESDAY MORNING. SEAS ARE
FORECAST TO AVERAGE 2 TO 3 FT.
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THIS WEEK WITH LIGHT
ONSHORE FLOW BECOMING SLIGHTLY ENHANCED (10-15 KT) ALONG THE
COAST AS DAILY SEA BREEZES DEVELOP, THEN SHIFT INLAND. SEAS WILL
SLOWLY BUILD TO 3-4 FT THROUGH WEDNESDAY, THEN SLOWLY SUBSIDE
TO 2-3 FT DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES COULD ALSO INCREASE ACROSS LOCAL WATERS MID-WEEK (LATE
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY) WITH SFC TROUGHING AND H5 VORT ENERGY
SHIFTING ONSHORE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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