450
FXUS62 KCHS 191108
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
708 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK THEN STALL OVER
OR NEAR THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH LATE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
SHARP SUBTROPICAL UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SPANS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS
OVER TOP SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THAT EXTENDS WELL INTO THE
ATLANTIC. SYNOPTIC PATTERN CHANGES VERY LITTLE THROUGH TONIGHT,
WITH LARGER SCALE SUBSIDENCE CONTINUING TO DOMINATE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST REGION. A SOMEWHAT DEEP MIXED LAYER THIS AFTERNOON
MIGHT SUPPORT SOME CU DEVELOPMENT. OTHERWISE, OUR STRETCH OF DRY
WEATHER CONTINUES UNDER SUNNY SKIES. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL WARM
INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S MOST AREAS, WITH SOME UPPER 80S
POSSIBLE WELL INLAND IN GEORGIA. COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG THE
COAST.
TONIGHT: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUE
TO DOMINATE WITH DRY WEATHER CONTINUING. MODEL RH FORECASTS AND
SOUNDINGS DO SUGGEST SCT-BKN HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER GRADUALLY
EDGING INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT, POSSIBLY LEADING TO
PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS. BUT QUIET OVERALL WITH LOWS IN THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S INLAND, LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S ALONG THE
COASTAL CORRIDOR.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
DEEP LAYERED RIDGING WILL PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD. STRONG SUBSIDENCE WILL BE PREVALENT AS NOTED IN
MODEL SOUNDINGS VIA AN 850MB CAPPING INVERSION. DRY CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME
CIRRUS/HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A
POTENTIALLY THICK LAYER ALOFT IN PLACE BY MONDAY. THIS WILL LIMIT
THE AMOUNT OF HEATING; HOWEVER, WE STILL ANTICIPATE AN OVERALL DAILY
TEMPERATURE INCREASE BY A DEGREE OR SO. SUNDAY WILL TOP OUT IN THE
LOW TO MID 80S. MONDAY, MID TO UPPER 80S WILL BE COMMON EVERYWHERE
EXCEPT THE BEACHES WHERE IT WILL STAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. BY
TUESDAY, SOME LOCATIONS COULD PEAK AROUND 90 DEGREES. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S SUNDAY NIGHT
AND WARM INTO THE LOW/MID 60S MONDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT, SLOWLY
SAGGING INTO THE FORECAST AREA AND THEN STALLING ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING DIURNALLY-DRIVEN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BOTH DAYS, ENHANCED BY THE AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZE. THE GREATEST POPS (30-40%) ARE FOCUSED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
SOUTH CAROLINA INTERIOR, CLOSER TO WHERE BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS WOULD
OCCUR. THIS LOCATION, HOWEVER, WILL GREATLY DEPEND ON THE LOCATION
OF THE STALLED FRONT. BY FRIDAY, THE FRONT WILL RETREAT NORTH,
THEREBY DECREASING RAIN CHANCES. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
KCHS/KJZI/KSAV: VFR WITH THE 12Z TAF CYCLE. A TOUCH OF GROUND
FOG WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING BUT
SHOULD HAVE MINIMAL IMPACT AT THE TERMINALS. DUE TO DEEP MIXING
HEIGHTS AND THE SEA BREEZE INFLUENCES, SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE
LATE MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, PEAKING CLOSE TO 20 KT
AT TIMES, BEFORE DIMINISHING AGAIN THIS EVENING.
VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT ALTHOUGH AGAIN A TOUCH OF
SHALLOW GROUND FOG IS POSSIBLE, ALONG WITH SOME INCREASE IN HIGH
CLOUD COVER DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON
AT ALL TERMINALS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SEA BREEZE. THERE ARE NO
OTHER CONCERNS.
MARINE
SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT,
WITH AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE ENHANCEMENT ACROSS CHARLESTON HARBOR
AND ALONG THE COAST. SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO 3 FEET TODAY, INCREASING
TO NEAR 4 FEET IN THE GEORGIA OUTER WATERS.
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL IN THE ATLANTIC
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, YIELDING BENIGN
CONDITIONS AND SOUTHERLY FLOW. EXPECT HIGHER WINDS NEAR THE COAST
AND ACROSS THE CHARLESTON HARBOR WITH THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE. SEAS
SHOULD AVERAGE 2-3 FT WITHIN 20 NM AND 3-4 FT FOR THE GA WATERS
BEYOND 20 NM. NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
NEAR TERM...ADAM
SHORT TERM...BRS
LONG TERM...BRS
AVIATION...ADAM/BRS
MARINE...ADAM/BRS
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