908
FXUS62 KCHS 050602
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
102 AM EST THU MAR 5 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH IN THE FORMATION OF FOG ACROSS THE SC
LOWCOUNTRY AND SOUTHEASTERN GA TONIGHT INTO THIS MORNING. A
MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL NEARSHORE
WATERS. THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THE 06Z TAF
ISSUANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) DENSE FOG IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST SOUTH
CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA TONIGHT INTO THIS MORNING.
- 2) UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK, WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES BEGINNING THIS
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: DENSE FOG IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA TONIGHT INTO
THIS MORNING.
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC SET UP OVER THE REGION WILL RESULT
IN FOG FORMATION ONCE AGAIN OVER THE SC LOWCOUNTRY AND
SOUTHEAST GA. WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING OVER THE REGION AND
WARM AND MOIST CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE, NEARLY ALL HI-RES
GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT FOG WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT. THE 00Z HREF
SHOWS 50-60% PROBABILITIES OF VSBYS <0.5 MI ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED FOR MOST, IF
NOT ALL, OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER TONIGHT/EARLY THIS MORNING.
FOG IS EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS, MIXING OUT
AROUND 9/10 AM.
KEY MESSAGE 2: UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES BEGINNING THIS
WEEKEND.
DEEP-LAYER HIGH PRESSURE WILL SET UP OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TODAY
AND PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. DESPITE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE,
PERSISTENT SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS PATTERN WILL SUPPRESS
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION AND SUPPORT A PRONOUNCED WARMING TREND.
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER
80S ACROSS SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA EACH DAY. ACROSS SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA, TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S. AREAS
ESPECIALLY NEAR THE ALTAMAHA RIVER COULD SEE HIGHS PEAKING IN THE
UPPER 80S SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. BEACH COMMUNITIES WILL PEAK
SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF THE COOLER SHELF
WATERS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN MILD AS WELL; IN THE UPPER 50S
AND LOWER 60S. DESPITE THESE WARM TEMPERATURES, NO RECORDS ARE
FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY; HOWEVER, SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR THE FAR INLAND COUNTIES BOTH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WHERE SUBSIDENCE IS EXPECTED TO BE WEAKEST. HOWEVER, AS THE
RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN SUNDAY, RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK, PARTICULARLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES PASSING TO THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY COULD PROVIDE ADDITIONAL FORCING FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE. NO SEVERE WEATHER
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THE 06Z TAF PERIOD BEGINS WITH VFR CONDITIONS AT KCHS/KSAV WITH
LIFR AT KJZI AS FOG IS ALREADY IMPACTING THE TERMINAL. FOG IS
ANTICIPATED TO IMPACT ALL TERMINALS OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE
MORNING HOURS, WITH IFR/LIFR CIGS/VSBYS INCLUDED IN THE 06Z
TAFS. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY MID MORNING AND REMAIN
VFR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE 06Z TAF PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: RESTRICTIVE CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS EACH NIGHT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND DUE TO LOW STRATUS/FOG.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS
LOCAL WATERS, EXTENDING ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH
THIS MORNING. THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF TONIGHT AND INTO TODAY WILL BE THE SEA FOG. SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND WEBCAM OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THERE IS SEA FOG LINGERING
JUST OFFSHORE. WHILE CONDITIONS MAY NOT BE DENSE YET, A MARINE
DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL NEARSHORE WATERS AS
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO GET WORSE HEADED TOWARDS DAYBREAK.
WHILE THERE IS NO DFA FOR THE CHARLESTON HARBOR YET CONDITIONS
ARE BEING MONITORED AND ONE MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH
THE WEEKEND, RESULTING IN AN EASTERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW THROUGH
SATURDAY. WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO SHIFT OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. BOTH WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO
STAY BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.
SEA FOG WILL CONTINUE TO BE A RECURRING CONCERN AS WARM, MOIST AIR
MOVES OVER THE COOLER SHELF WATERS. PERIODS OF FOG MAY REDEVELOP
FREQUENTLY AND COULD PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND, POTENTIALLY
LINGERING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE FOG COULD BECOME DENSE AT TIMES,
REDUCING VISIBILITY FOR MARINERS. ADDITIONAL MARINE DENSE FOG
ADVISORIES COULD BE NEEDED.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ350-352-
354.
BRS/CPM
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