043  
FXUS62 KCHS 190745  
AFDCHS  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC  
345 AM EDT THU SEP 19 2019  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE NOTICEABLY COOLER AND DRIER  
CONDITIONS TODAY, THEN PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD  
FRONT COULD PUSH INTO THE REGION AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT  
WEEK.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
 
 
AS OF 340 AM: IR SATELLITE INDICATED A LARGE PATCH OF STRATOCU  
GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER, DRIFTING SOUTH.  
SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY BUILD ACROSS THE CWA  
TODAY, SUPPORTING GUSTY NE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE HIGH  
PRESSURE BUILDS, SKY COVER OVER LAND WILL LIKELY DECREASE FROM  
NORTH TO SOUTH. BY MID DAY, HREF INDICATES THAT SHOWERS MAY  
BEGIN TO FORM OVER THE GULF STREAM AND TRACK TOWARDS THE GA  
COAST. OVER THE MARINE AREAS, I WILL INDICATE PARTLY SUNNY  
CONDITIONS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS. OTHERWISE, CONDITIONS TODAY  
WILL BE VERY PLEASANT ACROSS SE SC AND GA, WITH HIGHS NEAR 80  
NORTH TO THE MID 80S SOUTH WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S.  
 
TONIGHT: SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS  
MID-LEVEL RIDGE GRADUALLY BUILDS OVER THE REGION. DEEP HIGH PRESSURE  
CENTERED WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD YIELD MOSTLY CLEAR  
CONDITIONS INLAND. LINGERING INSTABILITY OVER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS  
MAY SUPPORT A FEW SHOWERS AND GREATER CLOUD COVER. USING A BLEND OF  
MOS, I WILL FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S INLAND TO  
NEAR 70 ACROSS THE BEACHES.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
 
 
DEEP LAYERED RIDGING WILL BUILD FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY AND THEN  
BLANKET THE FORECAST AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.  
 
DURING FRIDAY, THE ONLY FEATURE OF INTEREST WILL BE A WEAK SHALLOW  
COASTAL TROUGH EARLY IN THE DAY; TRANSITIONING INLAND SOUTH OF THE  
SAVANNAH RIVER IN THE AFTERNOON. THERE WILL ALSO BE A FAIRLY QUICK  
PROGRESSION OF THE SEA BREEZE IN SOUTH GA. MOISTURE OVER SOUTHEAST  
GA REMAINS SHALLOW (MOSTLY BELOW 850 MB WITH THE MID LEVELS STILL  
VERY DRY. WE MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE POP ALONG THE COAST EARLY ON  
AND THEN ALL GA AREAS ALONG/SOUTH OF I-16 IN THE AFTERNOON. IF ANY  
MEASURABLE RAINS MANAGE TO FALL, WE SUSPECT AMOUNTS WOULD ONLY  
AMOUNT TO FEW HUNDREDS OF AN INCH. ELSEWHERE, SUNSHINE MIXING WITH  
PERIODS OF CUMULUS AND STRATOCU WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 NORTH TO THE  
LOWER/MID 80S ACROSS GA.  
 
THE WEEKEND WILL BE DRY WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE, WHILE EXPANSIVE  
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS FROM NORTH GA TO THE CAROLINAS.  
SCATTERED CU AND STRATOCU WILL BE MOST PREVALENT ALONG COASTAL ZONES  
WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW. TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE MID 80S COASTAL HALF  
OF THE AREA WITH SOME UPPER 80S POSSIBLE INLAND EACH AFTERNOON.  
RADIATIONAL COOLING AT NIGHT WILL BE DECENT, LOWS AROUND 60 INLAND  
TO THE MID 60S COASTAL CORRIDOR.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
DEEP LAYERED RIDGING WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY MONDAY AND THEN TEND TO  
BREAK DOWN THEREAFTER, BEFORE RETURNING AGAIN LATE WEEK. A STRONGER  
MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL PASS WELL NORTH OF OUR REGION MONDAY NIGHT  
BUT DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE OVER THE  
SOUTHEAST STATES BY MID WEEK AND PERHAPS LINGER IN THURSDAY. MODELS  
CONTINUE TO SHOW NO SIGNIFICANT CHANCES FOR RAINFALL DURING THE  
MEDIUM RANGE. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO RUN ABOVE CLIMO WITH SOME 90  
DEGREE HIGHS RETURNING FOR INLAND AREAS OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY  
NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
06Z TAFS: VFR. EXPECT NORTHEAST WINDS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS  
THIS AFTERNOON.  
 
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE MARINE ZONES  
TODAY, LINGERING TONIGHT. NORTHEAST WINDS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE  
ACROSS THE WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT, WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY 20 KTS  
WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS. WAVE HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 10  
FT BEYOND 50 NM TO 4 FT NEAR THE COASTS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE  
BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL ZONES OUTSIDE OF THE CHS HARBOR TO HIGHLIGHT  
WITH WIND AND SEAS. THE CHS HARBOR MAY SEE NEAR ADVISORY WIND GUSTS  
THIS AFTERNOON, BUT GUSTS ARE EXPECTED JUST BELOW CRITERIA.  
 
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL BUILD CLOSER TO THE SC WATERS ON  
FRIDAY WHILE A STRONG LOW LEVEL GRADIENT PERSISTS OVER THE GA  
WATERS. SCA CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST ALL WATERS ON FRIDAY. THE CHS  
HARBOR WILL LIKELY BE BELOW SCA CRITERIA. ONSHORE FLOW WILL THEN  
WEAKEN THIS WEEKEND WITH A MUCH WEAKER SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT  
FORECAST. SEAS SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVER OFFSHORE WATERS WITH  
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH WINDS LIGHTER AND  
VARIABLE AT TIMES. WE WILL WATCH FOR ANY ADVANCING SWELLS FROM  
DISTANT TROPICAL CYCLONE JERRY.  
 
RIP CURRENTS: HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ON ALL BEACHES THROUGH  
THURSDAY EVENING DUE TO STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS AND AT LEAST A  
2-3 FT/11 SECOND PERIOD SWELL CREATED BY OFFSHORE HURRICANE  
HUMBERTO. AN ELEVATED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS MAY CONTINUE THROUGH  
THE WEEKEND.  
 

 
   
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
 
 
LOW CHANCES FOR MINOR SALT WATER FLOODING ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA  
COAST TODAY DURING THE MIDDAY HIGH TIDE CYCLE.  
 

 
   
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
GA...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR GAZ117-119-139-  
141.  
SC...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR SCZ048>051.  
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ350-352-354.  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ374.  
 

 
 

 
NEAR TERM...NED  
SHORT TERM...  
LONG TERM...  
AVIATION...NED  
MARINE...NED  
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...  
 
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