327
FXUS62 KCHS 252336
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
736 PM EDT SUN OCT 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED FOR 00Z TAFS, BUT NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES TO FORECAST THINKING.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) A SIGNIFICANT, MULTI-DAY COASTAL FLOODING EVENT WILL CONTINUE
THIS WEEK.
- 2) STRONG NORTHEAST FLOW THROUGH EARLY WEEK WILL RESULT IN
SEVERAL HAZARDS INCLUDING RIP CURRENTS, HIGH SURF, AND BEACH
EROSION.
- 3) DRY CONDITIONS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE GRADUALLY WARMING UP BY THE
END OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: A SIGNIFICANT, MULTI-DAY COASTAL FLOODING EVENT
WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK.
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE INTO EARLY THIS WEEK DUE TO
THE UPCOMING FULL MOON (10/26) AND THE LUNAR PERIGEE (10/28). LARGE
TIDAL DEPARTURES ARE ONGOING, AND WITH AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF STRONG
NORTHEAST FLOW THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK, DEPARTURES WILL
INCREASE IN MAGNITUDE. THE COMBINATION OF THE HIGHEST ASTRONOMICAL
TIDES OF THE YEAR AND PERSISTENT STRONG NORTHEAST FLOW WILL RESULT
IN A MULTI-DAY MODERATE TO MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING EVENT FOR THE
ENTIRE SOUTHEAST GA/SC COAST.
THIS EVENING: A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
CHARLESTON AND COASTAL COLLETON COUNTIES FROM 6 TO 10 PM THIS
EVENING. TIDE LEVELS AT THE CHARLESTON HARBOR ARE FORECAST TO
REACH 7.2-7.4 FT MLLW. THE CURRENT FORECAST KEEPS FORT PULASKI
JUST SHY OF MINOR FLOOD LEVELS, 9.4 FT MLLW. THEREFORE, A
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS NOT PLANNED FOR THE REST OF THE
COASTLINE AT THIS JUNCTURE.
MONDAY MORNING: THE HIGHEST TIDE LEVEL OF THE EVENT IS FORECAST TO
OCCUR AROUND 8 AM, WITH 7.9-8.1 FT MLLW FORECAST AT THE CHARLESTON
HARBOR AND 10.0-10.2 FT MLLW AT FORT PULASKI. A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH
IS IN EFFECT FOR CHARLESTON AND COASTAL COLLETON COUNTIES, AS THIS
TIDE IS FORECAST TO REACH MAJOR FLOOD LEVELS. ELSEWHERE ALONG THE
COAST A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED, INCLUDING
TIDAL BERKELEY.
REST OF THIS WEEK: COASTAL FLOODING IS FORECAST TO OCCUR WITH THE
TUESDAY, AND WEDNESDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE CYCLES, WITH MINOR FLOODING
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. DURING THESE CYCLES, IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT THE CHARLESTON HARBOR COULD EXCEED MAJOR FLOOD STAGE.
ADDITIONALLY, FORT PULASKI COULD EXCEED MODERATE FLOOD STAGE (10.0
FT MLLW). WINDS WILL SLIGHTLY RELAX HEADING INTO THIS WEEK, LEADING
TO LOWERING TIDAL DEPARTURES. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES WILL BE
NEEDED, AND COASTAL FLOOD WATCHES/WARNINGS ARE NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION FOR FOR CHARLESTON AND COASTAL COLLETON COUNTIES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2: STRONG NORTHEAST FLOW THROUGH EARLY WEEK WILL
RESULT IN SEVERAL HAZARDS INCLUDING RIP CURRENTS, HIGH SURF, AND
BEACH EROSION.
RIP CURRENTS: STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS, INCREASING LONG-PERIOD SWELL
AND ONGOING WAVE ACTION WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT DANGEROUS RIP
CURRENTS ALONG ALL SC/GA BEACHES INTO EARLY WEEK. A HIGH RISK FOR
RIP CURRENTS IS IN PLACE FOR ALL BEACHES THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
MONDAY, AND COULD PERSIST FOR ALL BEACHES AGAIN ON TUESDAY. AN
ENHANCED PERIOD OF RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK.
HIGH SURF/BEACH EROSION: BREAKING WAVE HEIGHTS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, REACHING 4-6 FT ALONG AREA BEACHES,
LIKELY LARGEST ALONG THE GA COAST. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE SOUTHEAST SC/GA COAST INTO MONDAY. ANOTHER
ROUND OF HIGH SURF IS POSSIBLE MID-WEEK AS THE PATTERN HOLDS (MAINLY
ALONG THE GA COAST), ALTHOUGH APPEARS TO FALL JUST SHORT OF CRITERIA
AT THIS TIME. ADDITIONALLY, THE COMBINATION OF ELEVATED TIDES, WAVE
ACTION AND THE PERSISTENT/GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
BEACH EROSION FOR THE ONGOING HIGH SURF EVENT, WITH THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS OCCURRING AROUND HIGH TIDE CYCLES INTO MONDAY.
LAKE WINDS: LATEST OBSERVATIONS CONTINUE TO INDICATE IMPROVEMENT
ACROSS LAKE MOULTRIE THIS AFTERNOON WITH NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS
GUSTING UPWARDS TO 15-18 KT AT TIMES. ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED
TO REMAIN BELOW LAKE WIND ADVISORY LEVELS AS 1000MB GEOSTROPHIC
WINDS GRADUALLY DECLINE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY, SOME GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS AN UPTICK ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION
FAVORING A MODEST INCREASE IN WINDS ACROSS THE LAKE. LAKE WATER
TEMPS REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S, WHICH WILL SUPPORT LOW-LVL MIXING
DURING EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AND A BRIEF UPTICK IN WIND GUSTS
(BETWEEN 20-25 KT) IS POSSIBLE. HOWEVER, THE DURATION OF THE EVENT
IS SHORT-LIVED IF REALIZED, SO NO HEADLINE HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR A
LAKE WIND ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.
KEY MESSAGE 3: DRY CONDITIONS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE GRADUALLY WARMING
UP BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
A RATHER PERSISTENT SYNOPTIC PATTERN PERSISTS THROUGH THE WEEK,
WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AND AN
UPPER TROUGH LINGERING AROUND THE BAHAMAS. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL DOMINATE THROUGH MID-
WEEK ALLOWING FOR A WEDGE TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOULD REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH THE COOLER AIR
TRAPPED WITHIN THE WEDGE. THE WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN
SLIGHTLY MID-WEEK, WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL
BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS A RESULT. THE FORECAST REMAINS RAIN-
FREE THROUGH THE WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL. A PINCHED GRADIENT WILL KEEP NORTHEAST
WINDS ELEVATED. GUSTS WILL BE INFREQUENT OVERNIGHT, BUT 15-20 KT
GUSTS WILL RETURN SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE AND PERSIST THROUGH THE
DAY ON MONDAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT
CHS/JZI/SAV THROUGH LATE WEEK. ALTHOUGH GUSTY NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS
(15-20 KT) COULD OCCUR AT ALL TERMINALS DURING AFTERNOON HOURS.
MARINE
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY: HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES AND LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS CONTINUE TO FAVOR A
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS LOCAL WATERS. ALTHOUGH A TEMPORARY
RELAX IN OBSERVED WINDS HAS BEEN RECORDED THE LAST FEW HOURS WITH
LOCAL WATERS EXPERIENCING A FEW GUSTS TO GALE FORCE NEAR 20 NM AND
FURTHER OFFSHORE, GUIDANCE SUPPORTS ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD AIR
ADVECTION RETURNING THIS EVENING, LIKELY RESULTING IN AN UPTICK OF
SUSTAINED NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS 20-30 KT WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO 35-
40 KT OFF THE BEACHES INTO EARLY MORNING HOURS MONDAY. SEAS SHOULD
ALSO BUILD TO 7-10 FT NEARSHORE AND 10-14 FT OFFSHORE TONIGHT.
THEREAFTER, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT GRADUALLY SLACKENS WITH CONDITIONS
FALLING BELOW GALE FORCE ACROSS NEARSHORE BEFORE DAYBREAK MONDAY,
THEN ACROSS OFFSHORE SC WATERS MONDAY AFTERNOON, FOLLOWED BY
OFFSHORE GA WATERS MONDAY NIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES IN
THE CHARLESTON HARBOR (GUSTS UP TO 25-30 KT AND SEAS 1-2 FT) THIS
AFTERNOON, BUT LIKELY ENDS PRIOR TO DAYBREAK MONDAY. CONDITIONS
COULD IMPROVE SOONER THAN ANTICIPATED IF STRONGER COLD AIR ADVECTION
IS NOT REALIZED OVERNIGHT.
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: WINDS/SEAS WILL GRADUALLY TREND LOWER
HEADING INTO TUESDAY, BUT A TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN INLAND HIGH
PRESSURE AND PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE WILL
LIKELY MAINTAIN ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH LATE WEEK. SOLID
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS OUTSIDE THE CHARLESTON HARBOR,
NORTH-NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS UP TO 25-30 KT WITH SEAS 5-8 FT NEARSHORE
AND 8-10 FT OFFSHORE (LARGEST ACROSS GA WATERS), WILL BE COMMON
THROUGH THE PERIOD. AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
WILL LIKELY BE NECESSARY FOLLOWING GALE WARNINGS EARLY WEEK.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR GAZ217-219-
239-241.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT MONDAY FOR GAZ217-219-239-
241.
SC...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR SCZ148>151.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT MONDAY FOR SCZ148>151.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ149-
150.
COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM 5 AM EDT MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING FOR SCZ149-150.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ340.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ360-362-364.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ380-382.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ384.
CEB/CPM/DPB
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