338
FXUS62 KCHS 221827
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
227 PM EDT SAT AUG 22 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ALL SECTIONS UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE TODAY WITH SHOWERS AND
STORMS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE TODAY WITH SHOWERS
AND STORMS.
A LARGE MID LEVEL TROUGH, CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES, WILL
DOMINATE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS TODAY.. WPC SURFACE ANALYSIS
FROM 15Z SHOWS A WEAK FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE SC MIDLANDS. THIS
FRONT WILL BE THE MAIN FORCING BEHIND SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AS IT SLOWLY MOVES TOWARDS THE SC LOWCOUNTRY AND SE
GEORGIA. WHILE A STRONG STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT, THE MAIN
HAZARD THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL AS PWATS ARE
ANALYZED AROUND 1.9 TO 2.0". THE 12Z GUIDANCE DEPICTS THE BULK
OF THE PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING AROUND 22/23Z THIS EVENING,
GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-95. THE 12Z HREF SHOWS
PROBABILITIES OF 1 INCH OR GREATER EAST OF I-95 AROUND 50-70%.
SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO WIND DOWN BY 9 PM.
SUNDAY ONWARD: THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH WILL FINALLY MOVE
FAR ENOUGH EAST TO USHER IN SOME DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA BY
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WITH DRIER AIR IN PLACE AND THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY PUSHED OFFSHORE, RAIN CHANCES SHOULD REMAIN LOW THROUGH
MONDAY. HOWEVER, MOISTURE SHOULD BEGIN TO RECOVER STARTING
TUESDAY AND INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH A RETURN TO MORE
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN SETTING UP.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
A TEMPO GROUP HAS BEEN INTRODUCED AT KCHS/KJZI/KSAV TO REFLECT
THE THREAT FOR TSRA THIS AFTERNOON. THEREAFTER, PREVAILING VFR
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE 18Z TAFS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: PREVAILING VFR.
MARINE
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY: MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FAIRLY
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN ON TAP. GENERALLY EXPECT SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS AVERAGING IN THE 10-15 KNOT RANGE WITH GUSTS TO 20
KT AT TIMES AND SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET. ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THAT
MOVE OVER THE WATERS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BRING HIGHER WIND GUSTS
AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
AUGUST 24:
KCHS: 76/2010
KCXM: 80/1975
AUGUST 25:
KCHS: 77/1982
AUGUST 27:
KCHS: 78/2011
AUGUST 28:
KCHS: 77/2020
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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