227
FXUS62 KCHS 141139
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
739 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
KEY MESSAGE 1 HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR LATEST TRENDS. THE AVIATION
SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THE LATEST TAF ISSUANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TODAY WITH
ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD
ALSO BECOME STRONG WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
- 2) MINOR TO MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING REMAINS POSSIBLE DURING
THE EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLES ALONG THE CHARLESTON TO COLLETON
COUNTY COAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
- 3) NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN ON THURSDAY,
WARMING UP FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TODAY WITH
ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD ALSO
BECOME STRONG WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
TODAY AND TONIGHT: A STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY
FOCUS FOR CONVECTION, CURRENTLY ORIENTED ALONG/NEAR THE SOUTHEAST
SOUTH CAROLINA COAST, THEN MORE EAST-WEST ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
EARLY THIS MORNING. EARLY MORNING CONVECTION HAS ALREADY ERUPTED
ALONG PARTS OF THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST NEAR THIS FEATURE AND
COULD PERSIST FOR SEVERAL HOURS. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TO EXPAND ALONG THE BOUNDARY, WITH SOME
GUIDANCE INDICATING WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING NEARBY AND/OR
JUST SOUTH OF THIS FEATURE DURING THE DAY. THE POSITION OF WEAK
LOW PRESSURE SHOULD RESULT IN A FAVORABLE ZONE OF LIGHT ONSHORE
FLOW AND ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA, LIKELY
RESULTING IN AN EARLIER START TO SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
ALONG COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA COMMUNITIES THROUGH MID MORNING
HOURS, FOLLOWED BY MORE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS INLAND SOUTH CAROLINA
AND GEORGIA AS WELL AS MODEST INSTABILITY DEVELOPS WITH DIURNAL
HEATING. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER TODAY GIVEN THE
EXTENT OF CLOUDS AND EARLIER START TO CONVECTION, BUT DEEP
MOISTURE (PWATS 2.25 TO 2.50 INCHES) AND SLOW STORM MOTION COULD
LEAD TO ANOTHER DAY OF ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING, PARTICULARLY
ACROSS SATURATED GROUNDS FROM THE LAST FEW DAYS OF RAINFALL.
HOWEVER, SHOULD ACTIVITY HUG THE BOUNDARY NEAR THE COAST FOR A
LONGER DURATION, AND INCREASED THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING IS ALSO
POSSIBLE ACROSS COASTAL ZONES. EXPECT THE BULK OF CONVECTION TO
WANE DURING EVENING HOURS. HOWEVER, IF ACTIVITY HOLDS ON FOR
LONGER THAN ANTICIPATED, IT COULD POSE AN ADDITIONAL RISK FOR
COASTAL FLOODING DURING THE EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLE. THE LATEST
WPC EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK FOR TODAY HIGHLIGHTS THE ENTIRE
AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL/FLASH FLOODING.
SEVERE WEATHER CONCERNS SHOULD BE NOTICEABLY LOWER TODAY, BUT A
STRONGER THUNDERSTORM OR TWO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT WITH DAMAGING
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGE 2: MINOR TO MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING REMAINS POSSIBLE
DURING THE EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLES ALONG THE CHARLESTON TO COLLETON
COUNTY COAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ASSOCIATED WITH YESTERDAY'S LUNAR PERIGEE
AND TODAY'S NEW MOON WILL CONTINUE, WITH A 6.57 FT MLLW TONIGHT AND
A 6.46 FT MLLW WEDNESDAY EVENING IN THE CHARLESTON HARBOR. SIMILAR
TO WHAT WAS OBSERVED MONDAY EVENING, WILL LIKELY SEE WATER LEVELS
PEAK IN THE 7.4-7.6 FT MLLW RANGE TUESDAY EVENING WITH A WEAK
NORTHEASTERLY WIND AIDING THE INCREASING TIDAL DEPARTURES. GIVEN
SLIGHTLY LOWER ASTRO TIDES AND WEAK VARIABLE WINDS WEDNESDAY EVENING,
PEAK WATER LEVELS OF 7.1-7.3 FT MLLW ARE EXPECTED. COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORIES ARE EXPECTED ON BOTH DAYS FOR THE CHARLESTON AND COLLETON
COUNTY COAST. IF HEAVY RAINFALL WERE TO OCCUR NEAR OR DURING THE
TIME OF THE EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLES, FLOODING CONCERNS WOULD
INCREASE AS TOTAL WATER LEVELS WOULD SIMILARLY INCREASE.
IN THE ABSENCE OF STRONG TIDAL DEPARTURES ON THURSDAY, COASTAL
FLOOD ISSUES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED.
KEY MESSAGE 3: NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN ON
THURSDAY, WARMING UP FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
THE BRIEF BREAK FROM THE HEAT CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY, WITH
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS STRONG RIDGING BUILDS ALOFT
THURSDAY AND REMAINING ELEVATED INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL
BUILD BACK UP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 90S ON THURSDAY, AND WITH
DEWPOINTS REMAINING IN THE LOWER TO UPPER 70S (HIGHEST ALONG THE
COAST), WIDESPREAD HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 100+ RETURN TO THE REGION.
AREAS ALONG THE COAST MAY BREACH THE 108 DEG F MARK FOR A FEW HOURS,
BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAT ADVISORIES. EXPECT A MARGINALLY
WARMER DAY FOR FRIDAY AS HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 90S EXPAND,
WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING FAIRLY STEADY THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND.
ADDITIONAL HEAT ADVISORIES MAY THUS BE NEEDED EACH DAY, PARTICULARLY
FOR THOSE ALONG THE COAST. AS FOR RAIN CHANCES, TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE AFTERNOON
SEA BREEZE DISSIPATING INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS ALONG WITH TEMPO GROUPS FOR SHOWERS
AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN IN BOTH CHS/JZI TERMINALS DURING
MORNING HOURS. CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME VFR DURING AFTERNOON
HOURS, BUT WITH TEMPO MVFR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS DUE TO ADDITIONAL
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY, ROUGHLY BETWEEN 18/19Z TO
22/23Z. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN PREVAIL TONIGHT AND PERSIST
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY. A SIMILAR PATTERN WILL FOLLOW AT SAV IN
REGARDS TO LOW CIGS (MVFR/IFR) DURING MORNING HOURS TODAY.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD THEN OCCUR AFTERNOON
HOURS AS WELL, ROUGHLY BETWEEN 19-23Z, AND HAS BEEN ACCOUNTED
FOR IN A TEMPO GROUP DURING THAT TIMEFRAME. VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD THEN FOLLOW AT SAV THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF
PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL
DECREASE WEDNESDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND, THOUGH ISOLATED RISKS OF
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS WILL REMAIN.
MARINE
TODAY - WEDNESDAY: A WEAK FRONT/BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN IN THE VICINITY
INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, WHICH WILL CONTINUE CHANCES FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. SURFACE
FLOW WILL BE VARIABLE AS A RESULT OF THE FRONT. IN GENERAL, STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED, THOUGH AN ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
THURSDAY - SATURDAY: WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ON THURSDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH WINDS AND
SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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