591  
FXUS62 KCHS 090716  
AFDCHS  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC  
316 AM EDT THU OCT 9 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS  
 
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH  
INLAND HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOW  
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST THIS  
WEEKEND.  
 
 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/  
 
PRIOR TO DAYBREAK: A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SOUTH ACROSS  
THE LOCAL AREA, ENTERING SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA DURING THE NEXT  
HOUR, THEN REACHING SOUTHEAST GEORGIA PRIOR TO SUNRISE. FEW TO  
SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE  
WITH THE FRONT WITH A COUPLE SPOTS CAPABLE OF RECEIVING AROUND 1/4  
INCH OF RAINFALL. ONCE FROPA OCCURS, A NOTICEABLE UPTICK IN NORTH-  
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS IS EXPECTED, WITH WIND GUSTS APPROACHING THE 15-  
20 MPH RANGE. FURTHER SOUTH, WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHTER PRIOR TO  
DAYBREAK, BEFORE COLD AIR ADVECTION OCCURS POST FROPA, BUT WIND  
GUSTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND  
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE AS WELL. LOW TEMPS  
WILL RANGE IN THE LOWER 60S INLAND TO MID-UPPER 60S CLOSER TO THE SC  
COAST AND SOUTH ACROSS INLAND AREAS OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.  
 
TODAY: ALOFT, WEAK MID-LVL RIDGING STRETCHED ACROSS THE NORTHERN  
GULF INTO PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST WILL SHIFT SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA  
IN RESPONSE TO A LARGE-SCALE TROUGH PROGRESSING EAST ACROSS THE  
NORTHEAST/MID-ALANTIC STATES, AND A CUT-OFF LOW ATTEMPTING TO  
DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ALONG ITS BASE THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE  
SFC, A COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY DEPART THE LOCAL AREA SOUTH OF THE  
ALTAMAHA RIVER EARLY-MID MORNING, MAKING WAY FOR STRONG AND  
NOTICEABLY COOLER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA FROM  
THE NORTH THROUGHOUT THE DAY. COLD AIR ADVECTION OCCURRING WITH THIS  
AIRMASS CHANGE IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN RATHER BREEZY NORTH-  
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS (20-25 MPH) THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH SLIGHTLY  
HIGHER GUSTS OCCURRING NEAR THE COAST (25-30 MPH). DESPITE EARLY  
FROPA, FEW TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG WITH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM  
REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST  
GEORGIA DUE TO MID-UPPER LVL LOW ARRIVING, BUT PRECIP TRENDS SHOULD  
BECOME MORE FOCUSED ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA DURING THE AFTERNOON.  
HIGH TEMPS WILL BECOME NOTICEABLY COOLER THAN THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS,  
TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW-MID 70S LOCALLY WHILE A NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY  
WIND PERSISTS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.  
 
TONIGHT: ALOFT, A MID-UPPER LVL LOW ARRIVES FROM THE WEST AND SLOWLY  
MEANDERS ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT WHILE A SFC WEDGE OF HIGH  
PRESSURE IS DRAPED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST, STRONGEST JUST INLAND AND  
NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. GUIDANCE INSISTS FEW TO SCATTERED SHOWERS  
LINGER ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SOUTH  
CAROLINA COAST, BUT PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT, GENERALLY 0.1  
INCH OR LESS OVERNIGHT. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO SPILL  
INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT, LIKELY MAINTAINING NORTHEASTERLY  
WINDS GUSTING UP TO 15-20 MPH ACROSS MOST AREAS, AND A BIT HIGHER  
GUSTS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE BEACHES. TEMPS WILL BE SOME 5-8 DEGREES  
COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT, WITH LOWS RANGING IN THE MID-UPPER  
50S INLAND TO LOWER 60S NEAR THE COAST AND SOUTH OF I-16 IN  
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.  
 
LAKE WINDS: STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION IN WAKE OF A COLD FRONT AND  
ASSOCIATED WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL LEAD  
TO GUSTY NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AROUND 25 KT ACROSS LAKE MOULTRIE  
TODAY AND TONIGHT. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT  
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND NIGHT AS A RESULT.  
 
 
   
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/  
 
A COMPLICATED SET UP WILL ENSUE FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. ALOFT,  
A MID LEVEL CYCLONE WILL DOMINATE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. THIS  
WILL HELP INDUCE CYCLOGENESIS AT THE SURFACE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST  
THIS WEEKEND. WHILE LOW PRESSURE RAPIDLY DEVELOPS OFF THE COAST, A  
WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH.  
BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES THE REGION WILL SEE A VERY PINCHED  
PRESSURE GRADIENT. THIS WILL YIELD BREEZY CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY  
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE AND ON HIGH BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES  
WHERE GUSTS UP TO 30 TO 35 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE. RAINFALL WILL BE  
POSSIBLE ALONG THE DIRECT COASTLINE, HOWEVER AMOUNTS WILL BE HIGHLY  
DEPENDENT ON THE LOCATION OF THE LOW PRESSURE. MOST RECENT GUIDANCE  
SUGGESTS THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL STAY JUST OFFSHORE,  
HOWEVER ANY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE LOWS POSITION COULD BRING HIGHER  
RAIN CHANCES ALONG THE COASTLINE. THE CURRENT FORECAST FEATURES  
RAINFALL TOTALS FRIDAY AROUND 0.5" TO 1" ALONG THE COASTLINE.  
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE BELOW NORMAL, ONLY REACHING INTO THE  
LOW 70S, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S INLAND AND 60S  
ELSEWHERE.  
 
SATURDAY WILL FEATURE THE SAME SET UP AS THE LOW PRESSURE AT THE  
SURFACE IS SLOW TO DEPART THE REGION. RAIN CHANCES SATURDAY  
AFTERNOON WILL BE LOWER (20-30% ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES) AS THE  
LOW IS EXPECTED TO PULL FAR ENOUGH AWAY FROM THE REGION. BREEZY  
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN, HOWEVER TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SLIGHTLY TO  
THE MID TO UPPER 70S, WARMEST SOUTH OF I-16 IN GA.  
 
BY SUNDAY THE SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO PROGRESS NORTHEASTWARD TO  
THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL STILL DOMINATE OVER THE  
REGION, HOWEVER BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO WANE AS THE LOW  
CONTINUES TO PROGRESS FURTHER AWAY FROM THE REGION. A DRY FORECAST  
HAS BEEN MAINTAINED, WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO  
AROUND 80 IN SE GA.  
 
LAKE WINDS: WINDS ON LAKE MOULTRIE WILL REMAIN ELEVATED INTO THE  
WEEKEND AS A STRONG, PINCHED GRADIENT DOMINATES IN RESPONSE TO  
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION AND CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE  
COAST. A LAKE ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR LAKE MOULTRIE THROUGH  
SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR NE WIND GUSTS 20 TO 30 KNOTS AND WAVES 2 TO 3  
FT.  
 
 
   
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/  
 
THE PATTERN ALOFT NEXT WEEK WILL FEATURE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE  
CENTERED OVER TEXAS BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST, WHILE THE MID-LEVEL  
CYCLONE IS POSITIONED OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. AT THE SURFACE  
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. A DRY  
FORECAST HAS BEEN MAINTAINED, WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE  
PERIOD TO MID-OCTOBER NORMALS.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/  
 
A COLD FRONT SHIFTING ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA COULD BRING A FEW  
SHOWERS ALONG WITH TEMPO MVFR CIGS TO CHS/JZI TERMINALS FROM 06-10Z  
THURSDAY AND 07-09Z THURSDAY AT SAV. HOWEVER, THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE  
BREEZY WINDS DEVELOPING POST FROPA WITH NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS  
GUSTING UPWARDS TO 18-23 KT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS AT THE  
TERMINALS. TEMPO MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AT CHS/JZI TERMINALS BETWEEN  
11-15Z THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. AT SAV,  
TEMPO MVFR VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 07-09Z THURSDAY DUE TO  
SHOWERS, FOLLOWED BY PREVAILING MVFR CIGS AS THE FRONT NEARS BETWEEN  
09-12Z THURSDAY, THEN FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER TEMPO MVFR GROUP BETWEEN  
12-16Z THURSDAY WITH LOWER CIGS ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE  
BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA. ONCE BREEZY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS DEVELOP  
POST FROPA, THEY COULD VERY WELL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND  
INTO THE NIGHT.  
 
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: GUSTY N TO NE WINDS WILL IMPACT  
KCHS/KJZI/KSAV FRIDAY, POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH  
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION.  
 
 
   
MARINE  
 
TODAY AND TONIGHT: A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT ACROSS LOCAL  
WATERS EARLY MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ITS WAKE. STRONG  
COLD AIR ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE AIRMASS CHANGE AND A TIGHT  
PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA WILL LEAD TO  
DETERIORATING MARINE CONDITIONS THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON  
AS NORTHEAST WINDS SURGE AND SEAS BUILD POST FROPA. SMALL CRAFT  
ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA  
WATERS WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE QUICKLY WITH FROPA, FOLLOWED  
BY GEORGIA COASTAL WATERS AT 8 AM. GALE WARNINGS REMAIN UNCHANGED,  
BEGINNING ACROSS ALL LOCAL WATERS (OUTSIDE THE CHARLESTON HARBOR)  
EARLY AFTERNOON, THEN PERSISTING THROUGH THE NIGHT. NORTHEASTERLY  
WINDS GUSTING UP TO 35-40 KT ALONG WITH SEAS BUILDING UP TO 6-10 FT  
ACROSS NEARSHORE AND 9-11 FT ACROSS OUTER GEORGIA WATERS ARE  
POSSIBLE BY THIS EVENING AND ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR DURING THE OVERNIGHT.  
 
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY: A SIGNIFICANT MARINE EVENT WILL BE ONGOING  
TO START FRIDAY, LASTING INTO THE WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING  
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST, COMBINED WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER  
LAND ZONES, WILL YIELD A PINCHED PRESSURE GRADIENT. THIS WILL RESULT  
IN NE WINDS 20 TO 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 KNOTS FRIDAY INTO  
SATURDAY NIGHT. A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL MARINE ZONES  
OUTSIDE OF THE CHARLESTON HARBOR THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A SMALL  
CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CHARLESTON HARBOR FOR WIND GUSTS  
UP TO 30 KNOTS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION TO THE GUSTY  
WINDS, SEAS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE INTO THE WEEKEND, PEAKING  
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH 7 TO 9 FT IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS  
AND 10 TO 11 FT IN THE 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE GA WATERS. AS THE LOW  
PRESSURE OFFSHORE PROGRESSES TO THE NE TOWARDS THE MID-ATLANTIC  
COASTLINE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MARINE ZONES WILL  
BEGIN TO IMPROVE. HOWEVER, SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL  
LIKELY LINGER AS BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS WIND GUSTS AROUND 25  
KNOTS.  
 
RIP CURRENTS: STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS WILL LEAD TO  
AN ENHANCED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. A HIGH  
RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS FORECAST AT ALL AREA BEACHES FOR BOTH TODAY  
AND FRIDAY, WITH THE THREAT PERSISTING INTO AT LEAST SATURDAY AS A  
COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS OFFSHORE.  
 
HIGH SURF: LARGE BREAKING WAVES OF 5+ FEET ARE EXPECTED AT ALL AREA  
BEACHES BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY AS  
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INLAND AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS  
OFFSHORE. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE  
COASTLINE.  
 
 
   
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING  
 
STRONG NE WINDS RESULTING FROM BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE INLAND AND  
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL ALLOW TIDAL DEPARTURES TO  
INCREASE THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL HIGH TIDE CYCLES. ASTRONOMICAL  
TIDE VALUES ARE ALREADY ELEVATED OWING TO THE RECENT FULL MOON AND  
PERIGEE, WHICH COMBINED WITH INCREASING DEPARTURES WILL RESULT IN  
COASTAL FLOODING WITH EACH HIGH TIDE CYCLE INTO THE WEEKEND. WHILE  
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN COASTAL FLOODING OCCURRING, THE POSITION OF  
THE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE WILL HIGHLY INFLUENCE THE TIDAL  
DEPARTURE.  
 
CHARLESTON HARBOR TIDE GAGE: THE LATE MORNING HIGH TIDE CYCLES TODAY  
THROUGH SATURDAY HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO HIT MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING  
(>8 FT MLLW). A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR CHARLESTON  
AND COASTAL COLLETON COUNTIES THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A COASTAL  
FLOOD ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR TIDAL BERKELEY COUNTY THROUGH  
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.  
 
FORT PULASKI TIDE GAGE: THE LATE MORNING HIGH TIDE CYCLES THROUGH  
SATURDAY HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO REACH MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING (10  
TO 10.5 FT MLLW). A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM  
BEAUFORT COUNTY, SC SOUTHWARD TO MCINTOSH COUNTY, GA FROM 8 AM THIS  
MORNING UNTIL NOON TODAY.  
 
 
   
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
GA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO NOON EDT  
TODAY FOR GAZ117-119-139-141.  
HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS  
EVENING FOR GAZ117-119-139-141.  
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY  
FOR GAZ117-119-139-141.  
SC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO NOON EDT  
TODAY FOR SCZ048-051.  
HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS  
EVENING FOR SCZ048>051.  
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY  
FOR SCZ048>051.  
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR SCZ045.  
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 PM EDT  
FRIDAY FOR SCZ049-050.  
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 PM EDT  
FRIDAY FOR SCZ052.  
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ330.  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ350.  
GALE WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM EDT SATURDAY  
FOR AMZ350-352.  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ352.  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 PM EDT THIS  
AFTERNOON FOR AMZ354-374.  
GALE WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR  
AMZ354.  
GALE WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR  
AMZ374.  
 
 
 
 
 
NEAR TERM...DPB  
SHORT TERM...CPM  
LONG TERM...DPB  
AVIATION...CPM/DPB  
MARINE...CPM/DPB  
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