606
FXUS62 KGSP 051034
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
634 AM EDT MON OCT 5 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE AVIATION DISCUSSION HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
1. DRY FOR THE WORKWEEK BEFORE RAIN CHANCES RETURN THIS
WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL MOSTLY BE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
WEEK, WITH THE EXCEPTION TUESDAY, WHEN HIGHS DROP A FEW DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: DRY FOR THE WORKWEEK BEFORE RAIN CHANCES RETURN THIS
WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL MOSTLY BE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK,
WITH THE EXCEPTION TUESDAY, WHEN HIGHS DROP A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.
DESPITE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITHIN RESIDUAL COLD AIR DAMMING
AIR MASS, EXTENSIVE HIGH CLOUDS HAVE PREVENTED WIDESPREAD SATURATION
OF THE LOW LEVELS, AND FOG/LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEEN RELATIVELY PATCHY AS
A RESULT, WITH ONLY VERY ISOLATED DENSE FOG BEING REPORTED. WHAT
FOG/STRATUS THERE IS WILL LIFT BY LATE MORNING.
OTHERWISE, UPPER TROUGHING LINGERS OVER THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN
UNITED STATES THROUGH FRIDAY. AT THE SURFACE, DRY HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE THE CENTER SHIFTS
OFFSHORE THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY KEEPING
DRY CONDITIONS AROUND. WE WILL SEE A BRIEF WARM UP TODAY BEFORE
SLIGHTLY COOLER AND JUST BELOW NORMAL HIGHS RETURN TUESDAY. A
WARMING TREND DEVELOPS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, WITH HIGHS CLIMBING
BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AND EAST OF
THE MOUNTAINS ON THURSDAY. SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGHS RETURN FRIDAY,
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS
AND EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS.
AN UPPER RIDGE IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BUILDS WESTWARD TOWARDS THE
SOUTHEAST COAST WHILE AN UPPER LOW DEVELOPS OVER TEXAS AND LIFTS
NORTHWARD OVER THE WEEKEND. THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL WORK TOGETHER TO
FUNNEL IN GULF MOISTURE OVER THE REGION. AND THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF
MOISTURE THANKS TO A FRONTAL BOUNDARY NUDGING NORTHWARD OUT OF THE
NORTHERN GULF AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE WESTERN
GULF THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING RAIN CHANCES BACK BUT EXACT
TIMING REMAINS MURKY AS GLOBAL MODELS ARE NOT IN GREAT AGREEMENT ON
THE ARRIVAL TIME OF RAIN. THE GFS AND EURO ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT DRY CONDITIONS WILL LINGER THROUGH SATURDAY, BEFORE
RAIN CHANCES RETURN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. MEANWHILE, THE
CANADIAN IS THE FASTER SOLUTION, SHOWING RAIN CHANCES RETURNING BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. NBM CHANCE POPS ON SATURDAY APPEAR REASONABLE
FOR NOW. COOLER HIGHS SHOULD RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND WITH THICK CLOUD
COVER AND WIDESPREAD RAIN IN PLACE, ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY.
AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: AS EXPECTED, THE COMBINATION OF ABUNDANT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE UNDERNEATH EXTENSIVE HIGH CLOUD COVER HAS
RESULTED IN A TRICKY AVIATION FORECAST THIS MORNING, WITH
WIDELY VARYING FLIGHT CATEGORIES AT THE TAF SITES...FROM VFR
AT KCLT/KAVL...TO IFR AT THE UPSTATE SC TERMINALS...TO VLIFR
AT KHKY. WILL RELY HEAVILY ON OBS FOR THIS MORNING'S FORECAST,
MAKING USE OF TEMPOS TO ADVERTISE THE SOLID POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF
CIG RESTRICTIONS AT KCLT/KAVL. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT
ALL SITES BY LATE MORNING, WITH CLEARING HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON... FOLLOWED BY MOSTLY SKC CONDITIONS FROM
LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
ONLY EXCEPTION IS THE ANTICIPATED DEVELOPMENT OF FOG/LOW STRATUS
IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY...WITH IFR/MVFR
VISBY LIKELY TO DEVELOP AT KAVL BY DAYBREAK.
OUTLOOK: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
WEEK...EXCEPT FOR THE CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG
AND LOW STRATUS EACH MORNING.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
AR/JDL
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