558
FXUS62 KGSP 161758
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
158 PM EDT FRI OCT 16 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
A FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY COOLER FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY MORNING, SUCH THAT MOST OF THE NC MOUNTAINS NOW HAVE GOOD
ODDS OF FALLING TO FREEZING, OR COLDER.
RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE TO INCREASE FOR BOTH THE NC MOUNTAINS AND
PARTS OF THE UPSTATE AND PIEDMONT FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ACTIVITY HAS
ALSO INCREASED.
KEY MESSAGES
1. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT,
BRINGING BREEZY CONDITIONS AND A CHANCE FOR WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN.
2. A FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
MORNING, WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO FALL TO NEAR OR BELOW
FREEZING ACROSS THE NC MOUNTAINS. FROST POTENTIAL MAY RETURN
SUNDAY NIGHT, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LIMITED.
3. QUIET CONDITIONS PERSIST MOST OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT,
BRINGING BREEZY CONDITIONS AND A CHANCE FOR WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN.
IT'S MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING FOLLOWING A STINT OF
ISOLATED DENSE FOG ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS, FOOTHILLS, AND EVEN
A FEW SPOTS IN THE UPSTATE. WIDELY SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS REMAIN
IN PLACE IN A FEW SPOTS ACROSS THE NC MOUNTAINS, BUT OTHERWISE
SKIES ARE CLEAR AND A BEAUTIFUL DAY IS ONCE AGAIN IN STORE. TO OUR
WEST, A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EASILY-DISCERNIBLE IN THE THETA-E AND
DEWPOINT FIELDS EXTENDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL TENNESSEE VALLEY INTO
EASTERN KENTUCKY...AND THIS FEATURE WILL DRIVE THE INTERESTING
WEATHER OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE SURFACE FRONT WILL GAIN
MOMENTUM AS ITS UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SHARPENS THIS AFTERNOON, AND
THE SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE IN THE NC MOUNTAINS BY LATE AFTERNOON OR
EARLY THIS EVENING. THE RESULT WILL BE AN UPTICK IN WINDS AS THE
FRONT CROSSES THE REGION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...PUSHING TO
OUR EAST BY SATURDAY MORNING. STRONG CAA IS DEPICTED ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE FRONT, SUCH THAT LINGERING WIND GUSTS OF 15-20MPH
ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT.
WINDS SHOULD ALSO BE FAVORABLE ORIENTED FOR A GAP WIND TO DEVELOP
IN PARTS OF THE UPSTATE AND FOOTHILLS OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BEGIN
TAPERING OFF THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY, BUT WILL REMAIN BREEZY
MOST OF THE DAY, NOT REALLY QUIETING DOWN UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT.
A SECONDARY ISSUE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR RAINFALL IN AND BEHIND
THE FRONTAL ZONE TONIGHT. FOR SEVERAL CONSECUTIVE CYCLES, MODELS
HAVE BEEN TRENDING TOWARD AN INCREASING AMOUNT OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE POSTFRONTAL AIR MASS, AND ALTHOUGH MODELS HAVE
STRUGGLED WITH IT FOR THE LAST COUPLE DAYS, THERE'S AN INCREASINGLY
CONVINCING SIGNAL IN THE HI-RES GUIDANCE FOR PATCHY DRIZZLE TO
DEVELOP. THE LATEST HREF AND REFS ENSEMBLES FEATURE MAINLY <0.1"
FOR MOST OF THE AREA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME WEST-FACING
SLOPES IN THE NC MOUNTAINS, WHICH COULD RECEIVE HIGHER TOTALS.
FORECAST PROFILES ALSO SUGGEST SOME POTENTIAL FOR GRAVITY WAVE
DEVELOPMENT IN THE LEE OF THE MOUNTAINS, WITH FAVORABLE ORIENTATION
OF LOW-LEVEL WIND VECTORS AND A STRONG POSTFRONTAL INVERSION
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA IN RESPONSE TO THE FRONT. AS A RESULT,
CAMS HAVE TRENDED SHARPLY TOWARD MORE CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT TONIGHT,
ALONG WITH SOMEWHAT GREATER COVERAGE OF DRIZZLE.
KEY MESSAGE 2: A FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY MORNING, WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO FALL TO NEAR
OR BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE NC MOUNTAINS. FROST POTENTIAL MAY
RETURN SUNDAY NIGHT, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LIMITED.
IN THE WAKE OF FRIDAY NIGHT'S COLD FRONT, A DRAMATICALLY COOLER
CP AIR MASS WILL SETTLE INTO THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND, ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO DROP SHARPLY ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. FORECAST HIGHS
STILL ONLY CLIMB INTO THE LO 60S FOR MOST OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY
AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY AS LINGERING CAA CONTINUES TO COOL THE AREA OFF.
IT CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE THE COLDEST NIGHT SHOULD BE SATURDAY
NIGHT, WHEN MUCH OF THE HIGH TERRAIN WILL SEE OVERNIGHT LOWS DROP
INTO THE LOWER 30S. MANY LOCATIONS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WILL SEE
TEMPERATURES DROP TO FREEZING, AND A FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED,
VALID FROM 1AM THROUGH 9AM SUNDAY. THE LOW TERRAIN WILL LIKELY
NOT SEE FREEZING TEMPERATURES, THOUGH MOST OF THE AREA WILL COOL
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S. WINDS HERE SHOULD REMAIN JUST ELEVATED
ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE A WIDESPREAD FROST RISK...THOUGH PATCHY FROST
IN SECLUDED LOCATIONS SEEMS REASONABLE.
BY SUNDAY NIGHT, JUST ENOUGH AIR MASS MODIFICATION SHOULD HAVE
OCCURRED THAT THE MAJORITY OF LOCATIONS EVEN IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL
REMAIN JUST ABOVE FREEZING. HOWEVER, MORE WIDESPREAD FROST LOOKS
POSSIBLE THAN ON SATURDAY NIGHT, AS BY THIS POINT THE CORE OF THE
SURFACE HIGH WILL BE SITUATED JUST TO OUR WEST, AND WINDS SHOULD BE
CALMER THAN ON SATURDAY NIGHT. NO PLANS FOR ANY PRODUCT JUST YET,
BUT ONE MAY BECOME NECESSARY DEPENDING ON HOW THE FORECAST EVOLVES.
CONFIDENCE IS LIMITED BY THE GROWING NUMBER OF ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS
THAT DEPICT A STACKED LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE NC COAST...WHICH WOULD
REINVIGORATE LOW-LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW, RAISING WINDS AND REDUCING
FROST POTENTIAL. REGARDLESS, FROST POTENTIAL SHOULD DIMINISH PAST
SUNDAY NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 3: QUIET CONDITIONS PERSIST MOST OF NEXT WEEK.
LONG-RANGE ENSEMBLES ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT MOST OF NEXT
WEEK WILL BE DEFINED BY A STOUT BLOCKING RIDGE THAT'LL STRENGTHEN
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE UNITED STATES AND REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH THE END OF THE SEVEN-DAY FORECAST. THE RIDGE SHOULD KEEP
THINGS STABLE AND UNPERTURBED, SO NO ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES WILL STEADILY CLIMB THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK
AS THE AIR MASS ONLY SLOW MODIFIES, SUCH THAT BY MID-WEEK MOST
LOCATIONS WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE LOW- TO MID-70S, AND LOWS IN THE
UPPER 40S OR LOWER 50S...MORE OR LESS AROUND CLIMO FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA
FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING, BRINGING GUSTY WINDS AND
A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. GENERAL THINKING IS
THAT WINDS WILL STAY MOSTLY S/SW THROUGH THIS EVENING, WITH GUSTS
UP TO 25KTS, AS THE FRONT APPROACHES, THEN TOGGLE AROUND TO THE AT
ALL TERMINALS OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE AREA. SOME WIDELY
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP NEAR AND BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH
MOST HI-RES GUIDANCE FEATURING -SHRA ACROSS THE NC MOUNTAINS AND
EVEN PARTS OF THE UPSTATE AND PIEDMONT. IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS,
BANDED STRATOCU - MOSTLY LOW-END VFR - IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS, AND GUIDANCE INCREASINGLY SUPPORTS EXPANSION OF
CEILINGS INTO THE UPSTATE AND PIEDMONT DURING THE LATE EVENING AND
AFTER MIDNIGHT. RESTRICTIONS SHOULD MAINLY BE CONFINED TO AREAS
WHERE RAIN IS ACTIVELY FALLING...THOUGH THERE'S A LOW-END CHANCE
FOR SOME MVFR CEILINGS TO DEVELOP AROUND DAYBREAK SATURDAY...MAINLY
ALONG I-77 AND IN THE NC MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW
FOR AN EXPLICIT MENTION IN THE TAFS...BUT SHOULD ANY RESTRICTIONS
DEVELOP, THEY'LL LIFT QUICKLY ON SATURDAY MORNING, GIVING WAY TO
A BREEZY BUT VFR DAY!
OUTLOOK: WINDS DIE DOWN BY SATURDAY NIGHT, AND VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAIL FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK. MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG AND LOW STRATUS
WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH MORNING.
CLIMATE
RECORDS FOR 10-16
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 87 1897 49 1954 63 1928 29 1939
KCLT 87 1925 58 1937 68 1947 35 1939
1925
KGSP 85 1935 53 1937 67 1925 32 1907
1911
1892
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
FOR NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062-063.
SC...NONE.
MPR
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