164
FXUS62 KGSP 171023
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
623 AM EDT TUE MAR 17 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
EXTENDED THE CURRENT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ABOVE 3,500 FEET ALONG
THE NC/TN BORDER THROUGH 8 AM.
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR THE 12Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
1. CURRENT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ABOVE 3,500 FEET ALONG THE
NC/TN BORDER WAS EXTENDED THROUGH 8 AM. SNOW WILL CREATE SLIPPERY
AND SNOW COVERED ROADWAYS WHICH COULD IMPACT THE MORNING COMMUTE.
2. THE COLDER AIR MASS LINGERS OVER THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT, KEEPING WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AROUND. FREEZING
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN EACH NIGHT, IMPACTING SENSITIVE
VEGETATION THAT HAS ALREADY STARTED BLOOMING FROM THE RECENT
ABNORMALLY WARM WEATHER.
3. A STEADY WARMING TREND FROM THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT COULD BRING RAIN ON MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: CURRENT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ABOVE 3,500 FEET ALONG
THE NC/TN BORDER WAS EXTENDED THROUGH 8 AM. SNOW WILL CREATE
SLIPPERY AND SNOW COVERED ROADWAYS WHICH COULD IMPACT THE MORNING
COMMUTE.
06Z CAMS SHOW NORTHWEST FLOW SNOW LINGERING THROUGH AT LEAST
DAYBREAK, SO THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ALONG THE NC/TN BORDER FOR
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 3,500 FEET WAS EXTENDED THROUGH 8 AM EDT.
ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 1-2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ABOVE
3,500 FEET, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE ABOVE 5,000 FEET.
ACROSS SOME OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS, ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
OF A DUSTING TO HALF AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE. SOME AREAS ALONG THE
NC/TN BORDER MAY SEE SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER THROUGH MID TO LATE
MORNING, WITH ANOTHER BRIEF ROUND POSSIBLY DEVELOPING THIS
AFTERNOON. ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION AFTER 8 AM IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN LIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 2: THE COLDER AIR MASS LINGERS OVER THE REGION THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, KEEPING WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AROUND.
FREEZING LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN EACH NIGHT, IMPACTING
SENSITIVE VEGETATION THAT HAS ALREADY STARTED BLOOMING FROM THE
RECENT ABNORMALLY WARM WEATHER.
BREEZY WINDS LINGER THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE TAPERING OF
THIS EVENING. GUSTS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS YESTERDAY AND WILL
REMAIN WELL BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. OTHERWISE, COLD AND DRY HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL LEAD TO HIGHS EACH AFTERNOON RUNNING
15-20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL, WITH LOWS EACH NIGHT RUNNING 10-15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. FREEZING LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TONIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL IMPACT SENSITIVE VEGETATION. HIGHS
EACH DAY EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL ONLY REACH INTO THE MID TO UPPER
40S. HIGHS ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTH CAROLINA
MOUNTAINS TODAY WILL BE COLD, ONLY REACHING INTO THE LOWER TO MID
20S. HIGHS ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTH CAROLINA
MOUNTAINS WILL BE A BIT "WARMER", RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S TO
LOWER 40S. WARMER HIGHS RETURN ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS
ON WEDNESDAY, RANGING FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS, AND THE 40S ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.
KEY MESSAGE 3: A STEADY WARMING TREND FROM THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT COULD BRING RAIN ON MONDAY.
A STEADY WARMING TREND BEGINS ON THURSDAY AND CONTINUES INTO THE
WEEKEND AS HEIGHTS BUILD WITH AN UPPER RIDGE MOVING EAST FROM THE
CENTRAL CONUS. HIGHS NEAR NORMAL THURSDAY RISE TO AROUND 15 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL BY SUNDAY. LOWS FOLLOW A SIMILAR TREND. MODEL GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO WAIVER BACK AND FORTH ON THE POTENTIAL FOR A WEAK
CLIPPER TYPE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO MOVE NEAR THE AREA FRIDAY OR
SATURDAY. THIS CAUSES THEM TO GO BACK AND FORTH BETWEEN A DRY
FORECAST AND SCATTERED SHOWERS. FOR NOW, THE MODEL BLEND, AND OUR
FORECAST, REMAINS DRY, WHICH IS GOOD GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY. A BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT MAY CROSS THE AREA MONDAY BRINGING LIGHT RAIN AND
COOLER, BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. A SLIGHT CHANCE POP HAS BEEN
INTRODUCED, IN LINE WITH THE MODEL BLEND.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: VFR AND DRY THROUGH THE 12Z TAF PERIOD. GUSTY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY, BUT WILL BE LIGHTER COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY. GUSTS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING. WIND
DIRECTION WILL REMAIN NW AT KAVL THROUGH LATE TONIGHT BEFORE GOING
CALM EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL
REMAIN W/WNW THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS BEFORE GRADUALLY
TURNING MORE N/NE LATE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. WINDS EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS WILL THEN TOGGLE E'LY JUST PRIOR TO DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.
OUTLOOK: MOSTLY DRY AND VFR THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ033-
048>052-058.
SC...NONE.
AR/RWH
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