471
FXUS62 KGSP 051824
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
124 PM EST THU FEB 5 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
PATCHY BLACK ICE IS POSSIBLE IN LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVED ACCUMULATING
SNOW FROM THIS MORNING, ESPECIALLY ON UNTREATED BRIDGES AND
SECONDARY ROADS.
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR AVERY COUNTY AND ELEVATIONS
ABOVE 3500 FEET FOR MADISON, YANCEY, AND MITCHELL COUNTIES FROM
18Z FRIDAY THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY. SNOW AMOUNTS HAVE INCREASED
SUFFICIENTLY AT HIGH ELEVATIONS ALONG THE TN BORDER TO WARRANT
AN ADVISORY.
A HIGH WIND WATCH WAS ISSUED FOR THE NC MOUNTAIN ZONES ON THE
EAST SIDE OF THE SPINE, AS WELL AS THE NC FOOTHILLS/NW PIEDMONT,
FOR THE PERIOD FROM 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY. DAMAGING WIND
GUST POTENTIAL IN THOSE AREAS CONTINUES TO INCREASE.
RED FLAG WARNING CONDITIONS ARE LOOKING LIKE A GREATER POSSIBILITY
FOR SATURDAY EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NC
FOOTHILLS.
KEY MESSAGES
1. LINGERING LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS BEFORE DISSIPATING. PATCHY BLACK ICE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY IN LOCATIONS WITH LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS FROM TODAY.
2. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR AVERY COUNTY
AND ELEVATIONS ABOVE 3500 FEET IN MADISON, YANCEY, AND MITCHELL
COUNTIES FROM 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY FOR SNOW ACCUMULATION
THAT WILL RESULT IN SOME TRAVEL IMPACTS.
3. A HIGH WIND WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR THE EAST SIDE OF THE
NC MOUNTAINS AND THE NC FOOTHILLS FROM 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z
SUNDAY. WIND GUSTS OF 45 TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY
NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE ESCARPMENT ON SATURDAY MORNING, WHICH MAY
KNOCK DOWN TREE LIMBS AND CAUSE POWER OUTAGES. SOME LOCATIONS EAST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE COULD GET NEAR RED FLAG WARNING CONDITIONS DUE
TO FREQUENT STRONG GUSTS AND AFTERNOON RH DROPPING DOWN TO 25%
OR LESS, LEADING TO DANGEROUS FIRE BEHAVIOR.
4. COLD AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS, POSSIBLY COLD
ENOUGH FOR A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY, BUT A WARMING TREND IS STILL
EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: LINGERING LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE DISSIPATING. PATCHY BLACK ICE POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY IN LOCATIONS WITH LIGHT
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FROM TODAY.
UPPER TROUGH AXIS IN THE MIDST OF SLIPPING ACROSS THE CWFA AS IT
TILTS MORE NEUTRAL AND SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT
LATER THIS AFTERNOON TO HELP THE BAND OF SNOW TO DISSIPATE,
WHILE SCATTERING CLOUDS AS WELL. THE BAND OF SNOW HAS BEEN
STUBBORN, BUT CURRENT RADAR SHOWS THE HIGHER RETURNS DIMINISHING
AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE I-85 CORRIDOR. CLOUD COVER AND LINGERING
PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP AFTERNOON HIGHS TODAY 5-10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. SCATTERING CLOUDS AND WEAK CAA WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
DROP 6-12 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS, CLOSER TO 12 THAN
6 IN LOCATIONS WITH A SNOWPACK. ANY MELTWATER OR SLUSH LEFTOVER ON
THE ROADWAYS WILL REFREEZE TONIGHT, CREATING BLACK ICE AND SLICK
SPOTS IN THE NC FOOTHILLS AND NORTHWEST PIEDMONT FOR THE FRIDAY
MORNING COMMUTE. USE EXTRA CAUTION ON THE ROADWAYS TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY ON UNTREATED BRIDGES AND SECONDARY ROADS.
KEY MESSAGE 2: A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR AVERY
COUNTY AND ELEVATIONS ABOVE 3500 FEET IN MADISON, YANCEY, AND
MITCHELL COUNTIES FROM 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY FOR SNOW
ACCUMULATION THAT WILL RESULT IN SOME TRAVEL IMPACTS.
THE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY TREND UPWARD ON THE SNOW
POTENTIAL BEGINNING FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT
THROUGH DAYBREAK SATURDAY OVER THE MOUNTAINS, MAINLY NEAR THE TN
BORDER, TO THE POINT WHERE THE FORECAST SUPPORTS ISSUING A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. WINTRY PRECIP
MAY COME IN TWO WAVES. THE FIRST ROUND OF PRECIP WILL BE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE PASSAGE OF A REINFORCING COLD FRONT THAT TRAILS AN ALBERTA
CLIPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHERN ONTARIO ON
FRIDAY. THE PRECIP SHOULD ARRIVE AFTER NOON WITH THE COLD FRONT,
BUT THIS INITIAL BURST WILL HAVE SUPPORT OF A COMPACT SHORT WAVE
THAT DIVES DOWN FROM THE NW WITH A QUICK SHOT OF DPVA TO ENHANCE
THE SNOW PRODUCTION. THE SHORT WAVE SHOULD FORCE SOME LIGHT PRECIP
BEYOND THE NW FLOW UPSLOPE ZONES, AND THERE'S A CHANCE OF PRECIP
OUT OVER THE NRN FOOTHILLS AND NW PIEDMONT IN THE AFTERNOON,
BUT IT SHOULD BE TOO WARM FOR SNOW EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. IN THE
WAKE OF THE WAVE, THERE COULD BE LULL WHERE THE PRECIP TAPERS OFF
TO SOMETHING MORE LIKE RIME ICING OR MAYBE EVEN FREEZING DRIZZLE
IN SOME SPOTS FRIDAY EVENING AS THE MOISTURE BECOMES MORE SHALLOW
BRIEFLY, BUT THIS DETAIL WILL NOT BE INCLUDED YET BECAUSE OF LOW
CONFIDENCE. ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP WILL TAKE PLACE LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS DEEPER MOISTURE DROPS DOWN
FROM THE NW AND SATURATES THE PROFILE UP INTO THE BOTTOM OF THE
DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH ZONE. THE TWO WAVES COMBINED WOULD BE JUST
ENOUGH TO PUSH AVERY COUNTY AND THE OTHER HIGH ELEVATIONS OF THE
NRN MOUNTAINS INTO THE ADVISORY RANGE ON AVERAGE, THOUGH AMOUNTS
WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE. THE SNOW THREAT SHOULD END BY DAYBREAK
SATURDAY AS THE MOISTURE PULLS OUT WHILE THE WIND PICKS UP. MORE
ON THAT BELOW...
KEY MESSAGE 3: A HIGH WIND WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR THE EAST
SIDE OF THE NC MOUNTAINS AND THE NC FOOTHILLS FROM 00Z SATURDAY
THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY. WIND GUSTS OF 45 TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE ESCARPMENT ON SATURDAY MORNING,
WHICH MAY KNOCK DOWN TREE LIMBS AND CAUSE POWER OUTAGES. SOME
LOCATIONS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE COULD GET NEAR RED FLAG WARNING
CONDITIONS DUE TO FREQUENT STRONG GUSTS AND AFTERNOON RH DROPPING
DOWN TO 25% OR LESS, LEADING TO DANGEROUS FIRE BEHAVIOR.
IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORT WAVE THAT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION LATE
IN THE DAY ON FRIDAY, MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE 850 MB FLOW REALLY
PICKING UP FROM THE NW DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS AT 850 MB
IMPROVE TO GREATER THAN 50KT EAST OF THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS
AFTER 06Z SATURDAY WITH 60-65KT WINDS INDICATED NEAR THE ESCARPMENT
AROUND 12Z-15Z SATURDAY. MEANWHILE, THE PRESSURE DIFFERENCE ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS REACHES 10 MB SATURDAY MORNING, WHICH IS USUALLY GOOD
ENOUGH TO RESULT IN HOWLING WINDS ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE MTNS
DURING STRONG NW FLOW COLD ADVECTION REGIMES. FCST SOUNDINGS ARE
SPLIT ON HOW DEEPLY THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE MIXED DURING THIS
TIME, WITH THE NAM SUGGESTING THAT AT LEAST ADVISORY-LEVEL GUSTS
WILL BE FREQUENT ACROSS THE NC FOOTHILLS. THE PROB OF WIND GUSTS
GREATER THAN 45KT CLIMBS INTO THE 50% RANGE SATURDAY MORNING IN
THAT AREA AS WELL. THE WIND GUST POTENTIAL SUPPORTS AT LEAST AN
ADVISORY IN THESE AREAS, BUT THERE ARE INDICATIONS OF A GREATER
IMPACT AND SOME WARNING-CRITERIA POTENTIAL. SO...A HIGH WIND WATCH
WILL BE ISSUED FOR THE ZONES ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE MTNS AND
THEN OUT ACROSS THE NC FOOTHILLS AND WE WILL LET THE NEXT SHIFT
DECIDE IF ANY OF THAT AREA WOULD WARRANT A WARNING. EXPECT A WIND
ADVISORY TO COVER A LARGER FOOTPRINT THAN THE HIGH WIND WATCH IF
THE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND IN THE WINDIER DIRECTION.
BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON, MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND EVEN
DRIER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS, WITH LARGE SECTIONS EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE DROPPING DOWN BELOW 30% RH IN THE AFTERNOON. OUR FORECAST
OFTEN UNDERESTIMATES THE AMOUNT OF DOWNSLOPE DRYING AND MIXING IN
THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT, SO IF ANYTHING, THE RH MAY TREND FARTHER
DOWNWARD. MEANWHILE, THERE IS GOOD POTENTIAL THAT WIND GUSTS WILL
REMAIN FREQUENT AND AT LEAST 25 MPH. IF THE FORECAST DOESN'T CHANGE,
A FIRE WEATHER WATCH WILL HAVE TO BE CONSIDERED FOR PARTS OF THE
AREA WITH COORDINATION FROM LAND MANAGEMENT AGENCIES.
KEY MESSAGE 4: COLD AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS,
POSSIBLY COLD ENOUGH FOR A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY, BUT A WARMING
TREND IS STILL EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.
LOOKS LIKE ONE MORE COLD NIGHT ON SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS, WITH LOW TEMPS DROPPING
DOWN INTO THE 10-15 DEGREE RANGE BELOW NORMAL. IF NOT FOR THE WIND
ALSO DYING DOWN, WE WOULD BE LOOKING AT A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY
FOR PARTS OF THE MOUNTAINS ONCE AGAIN, BUT AS IT IS THE SITUATION
LOOKS BORDERLINE RIGHT NOW.
THAT MIGHT DO IT FOR THE COLD FOR AWHILE. THE UPPER PATTERN WILL
FINALLY BECOME UNBLOCKED AND PROGRESSIVE BEGINNING ON SUNDAY. TEMPS
START TO REBOUND THEN, BUT WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL. THE FLOW
PATTERN FLATTENS CONSIDERABLY BY MONDAY AND IT SHOULD START TO
FEEL LIKE SPRING WITH HIGH TEMPS FINALLY ABOVE NORMAL. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO INDICATE HIGHS IN THE 60S BY MID-WEEK, WITH A SOUTHERN
STREAM SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH WEDNESDAY THAT WOULD BRING ONLY RAIN
EVEN TO THE HIGH ELEVATIONS.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: DRIER AIR WORKING INTO THE REGION HAS
ALLOWED FOR THE BAND OF PRECIP TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AND SHOULD
FULLY END OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. KEPT A TEMPO FOR -SN
MENTION AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS FOR KGSP/KGMU/KCLT THROUGH
19Z, BUT COULD END BEFORE THAT. OTHERWISE, DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE
IN STORE THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. NORTHEAST WINDS
CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE TERMINALS THROUGH TODAY BEFORE GOING LIGHT
AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT (KAVL MAINTAINS A NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY
COMPONENT). LINGERING MVFR/LOWER VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO
LAST THROUGH 20-21Z BEFORE LIFTING AND SCATTERING ACROSS THE
AREA. SOME FAST MOVING VFR MID/UPPER-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE
IN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION,
BUT SHOULD SCATTER OUT AFTER DAYBREAK FRIDAY AND THE LOWER CLOUD
COVER AND PRECIP REMAINING CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS ALONG THE NC/TN
BORDER. CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW POCKETS OF VSBY RESTRICTIONS,
ESPECIALLY WHERE SNOW FELL TODAY, SO INCLUDED AN MVFR MENTION AT
KHKY BEFORE DAYBREAK FRIDAY. WINDS TURN SOUTHWESTERLY ON FRIDAY AND
SHOULD PICK UP AT 5-10 KTS BY THE AFTERNOON, WITH LOW-END GUSTS
DEVELOPING AND SHOULD INCREASE BY THE EVENING HOURS.
OUTLOOK: DRY, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. GUSTY
WINDS DEVELOP LATER FRIDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A COLD FRONT AND
LINGER ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH SATURDAY, BUT WILL GRADUALLY
TAPER OFF EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS EARLY SATURDAY.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM FRIDAY TO 7 AM EST SATURDAY
FOR NCZ033-048>050.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING
FOR NCZ033-035-049-050-053-063>065-501>510.
SC...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING
FOR SCZ103.
CAC/PM
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