891  
FXUS62 KGSP 301744  
AFDGSP  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC  
144 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS  
 
COOLING HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY ACROSS THE  
MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE  
WEEK.  
 
 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/  
 
AS OF 130 PM EDT SATURDAY: SCATTERED CONGESTUS HAS DEVELOPED ALONG  
THE RIDGE TOPS OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN  
A WEAKLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. A FEW OF THESE ARE LIKELY TO EVOLVE  
INTO SHOWERS, BUT INITIALIZED SOUNDINGS FROM THE HRRR/RAP INDICATE  
POSITIVE BUOYANCY IS IN A QUITE SHALLOW LAYER...SO ANY SHOWERS THAT  
DEVELOP ARE LIKELY TO BE QUITE WEAK...AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL  
IS VIRTUALLY NON-EXISTENT.  
 
OTHERWISE, UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE EAST  
THROUGH THE PERIOD...REINFORCED YET AGAIN BY ANOTHER SPEED MAX  
DIGGING SSE FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THIS IS FORECAST TO CARVE OUT  
A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND MID-ATLANTIC  
BY TOMORROW, ALLOWING FOR AN OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN CONDUCIVE TO  
UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION OVER THE REGION. THIS ALONG WITH MORE OF AN  
EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND A SLIGHTLY MORE UNSTABLE AIR MASS IS  
EXPECTED TO RESULT IN AN UPTICK IN THE DIURNAL CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL  
SUNDAY AFTERNOON, MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS, WHERE  
POPS IN THE 20-40% RANGE WILL BE ADVERTISED. FORECAST PROFILES ARE  
SLIGHTLY MORE CONDUCIVE TO THUNDER POTENTIAL, BUT DEEP CONVECTION  
SHOULD AGAIN BE PRIMARILY SHOWERY IN NATURE. TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO  
BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD (WITH MAXES A  
CATEGORY OR TWO COOLER THAN TODAY).  
 
 
   
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/  
 
AS OF 125 PM EDT SATURDAY: BY SUNDAY NIGHT, A PERSISTENT RIDGE OUT  
WEST CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE DOWNSTREAM PATTERN IN THE EASTERN  
CONUS. A WEAK CUTOFF LOW PUSHES EAST AS YET ANOTHER EVEN STRONG  
UPPER LOW STARTS TO DIVE SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA, STRENGTHENING THE  
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. MEANWHILE, SURFACE  
HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO THE NE SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD AND GUIDANCE  
BRINGS IN AN IN-SITU WEDGE FEATURE, WHICH BRINGS IN ANOTHER BURST OF  
DRIER AIR FOR MONDAY AND INTO MONDAY NIGHT. BY TUESDAY, A SMALL  
SWATH OF DPVA CROSSES THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA. GIVEN THE  
DRIER AIR IN PLACE, NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH IN TERMS OF SHOWER OR  
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. HOWEVER, CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STRAY SHOWERS  
OR RUMBLES OF THUNDER OVER THE MOUNTAINS, ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE WEAK  
RETURN OF E/SE FLOW AND MOISTURE RETURNS TRY TO CREEP BACK IN. FOR  
THIS LOW CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP CHANCES, WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE (15-  
35%) FOR THE MORE WESTERN NC MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM  
PERIOD. QPF RESPONSE IS VERY LOW WITH A <10% CHANCE FOR RAIN AMOUNTS  
GREATER THAN 0.25". TEMPERATURES DIP INTO THE UPPER 70S MONDAY AND  
TUESDAY, MAINLY DUE TO THE NE SURFACE FLOW. OVERALL, THIS IS A LOT  
OF WAYS TO SAY THAT THE WEATHER IS QUIET, ALMOST NO RAIN IS EXPECTED  
AND ENJOY THE COOLER TEMPS.  
 
 
   
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/  
 
AS OF 130 PM EDT SATURDAY: THE PATTERN REMAINS RELATIVELY THE SAME  
AS THE SHORT TERM, QUIET-ISH. BY TUESDAY NIGHT, THE UPPER LOW OVER  
CANADA DECIDES TO MAKE A RUN FOR THE US AND PLUNGES ITSELF INTO THE  
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION. IN RESPONSE, THE RIDGE OUT WEST  
AMPLIFIES AND THE PERSISTENT TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS  
CONTINUES. AHEAD OF THE LOW DROPPING DOWN, GUIDANCE SHOVES A FEW  
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES ACROSS THE CWA, INCREASING RAIN CHANCES OVER AT  
LEAST THE MOUNTAINS ON WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW, KEEPING THE HIGHER POPS  
IN THE MOUNTAINS NEAR SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE (20-50%), WITH THURSDAY  
BEING THE GREATER CHANCES. BUT IT WILL CHANGE AS THIS TROUGH DIGS  
FURTHER SOUTH OR STAYS A LITTLE MORE CENTERED TO THE NORTH. A  
WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE AREA TOWARD THE END OF THE  
WORK WEEK, MAINTAINING THE COOLER TEMPS AND DRIER AIR. IF THIS COMES  
TO PASS, THE DRIER AIR COULD SHUNT MOST PRECIP CHANCES INTO NEXT  
WEEKEND, BUT THINGS WILL CHANGE THIS FAR OUT. GIVEN THE TIGHT  
PRESSURE GRADIENT, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP WEDNESDAY THROUGH  
AT LEAST FRIDAY, BUT REMAIN WELL BELOW ANY CONCERNS. PAST THE DAY 7  
THRESHOLD, LONG RANGE GUIDANCE DOES WANT TO LIFT THE TROUGH AND  
RETURN THE AREA INTO MORE BROAD FLOW. SINCE THIS IS PAST THE  
FORECAST RANGE, THINGS WILL DEFINITELY CHANGE. OH, AND TEMPERATURES  
REMAIN JUST BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/  
 
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE AT  
MOST TAF SITES THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. THE ONLY EXCEPTION  
IS AT KAVL, WHERE CHANCES FOR RESTRICTIONS IN LOW STRATUS  
AND/OR FOG WILL INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. HAVING  
SAID THAT, RESTRICTIONS ARE FAR FROM A SLAM DUNK AT KAVL, BUT  
THERE IS ENOUGH OF A SIGNAL IN GUIDANCE AND OBSERVATIONAL DATA  
TO FORECAST MVFR VISBY THERE FROM 09-13Z. OTHERWISE, CUMULUS IS  
BUILDING UP ALONG THE RIDGE TOPS THIS AFTERNOON...AND A FEW OF  
THESE ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INTO SHOWERS. CAN'T RULE OUT ONE  
OF THESE DRIFTING TOWARD KAVL, BUT THE PROBABILITY IS 20% AT  
MOST...AND THEREFORE NOT WORTHY OF A TAF MENTION.  
 
WITH EASTERLY FLOW EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ABOVE THE SURFACE TONIGHT  
INTO EARLY SUNDAY, THERE IS SOME POSSIBILITY OF LOW CLOUDS MAKING  
A RUN FOR KCLT AND KHKY. CONFIDENCE IN A CIG IS LOW AT THIS  
JUNCTURE, BUT FEW CLOUDS AT THE MVFR/IFR LEVEL APPEARS PRUDENT AT  
BOTH SITES. CHANCES FOR DIURNAL SHOWERS AND EVEN A TS OR TWO WILL  
INCREASE SUNDAY AFTERNOON (MAINLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS), BUT THE  
BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION ARE EXPECTED BEYOND THIS FORECAST  
PERIOD. WINDS WILL GENERALLY FAVOR NE AT 5-10 KTS THROUGH THE  
PERIOD...WITH PERHAPS A BRIEF EXCURSION TO LIGHT ESE THIS AFTERNOON.  
 
OUTLOOK: SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION RETURNS EARLY  
NEXT WEEK, MAINLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS, AND PERSISTS THROUGH  
MIDWEEK. VALLEY FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE EACH  
NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING, ESPECIALLY ACROSS MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS.  
 
 
   
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
GA...NONE.  
NC...NONE.  
SC...NONE.  
 
 
 
 
 
SYNOPSIS...CP  
NEAR TERM...JDL  
SHORT TERM...CP  
LONG TERM...CP  
AVIATION...JDL  
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