089
FXUS62 KGSP 130602
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
202 AM EDT FRI MAR 13 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
LOWER DEWPOINTS AND INCREASED GUSTS TODAY.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TRENDED SLIGHTLY HIGHER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT.
CONFIDENCE ON THE EXACT TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT ON MONDAY REMAINS
LOW.
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TRENDED SLIGHTLY HIGHER MONDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1. DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. GUSTY
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON.
2. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF A POTENT COLD
FRONT ON SUNDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA ON MONDAY, BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
3. GUSTY WINDS DEVELOP IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE COLD FRONT SUNDAY
THROUGH LATE TUESDAY, PEAKING ON MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT TRACKS
ACROSS THE AREA. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
4. A BRIEF PERIOD OF NORTHWEST FLOW SNOW SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG
THE NC/TN BORDER MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT, BUT ANY SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT.
5. A MUCH COLDER AIR MASS RETURNS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MONDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH MOST AREAS LIKELY FALLING NEAR
OR BELOW FREEZING EACH NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST OF THE AREA TODAY AS A DRY COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. DEEP MIXING AND A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO GUSTY WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON, BUT NOT
QUITE AS GUSTY AS THURSDAY. GUSTS ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL
APPROACH WIND ADVISORY LEVEL, BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. THE DRIER AIR MASS AND MILD TEMPS WILL HELP RH VALUES
DROP TO NEAR THE 25% RANGE OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS.
LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
AREA. HIGHS WILL BE WARMER ON SATURDAY WITH A NOT QUITE AS DRY AIR
MASS. RH VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE 30% RANGE, BUT COULD BE LOWER IF
MOISTURE RECOVERY IS SLOWER. LOWS WILL SEE A WARMING TREND AS WELL.
KEY MESSAGE 2: SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF A
POTENT COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY, BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
ALTHOUGH THE CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFF THE
NORTHEAST COAST SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN EXTENDED OVER THE SOUTHEAST WHILE A
STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES OUT OF THE WEST. THIS WILL ALLOW LOW-
LEVEL FLOW TO GRADUALLY TURN SE'LY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, LEADING
TO AN INFLUX OF MOISTURE OFF THE ATLANTIC. THUS, SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL RETURN SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH
30 TO 40 KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE IN PLACE ON SUNDAY, GLOBAL
MODELS DEPICT VERY LITTLE SURFACE INSTABILITY DEVELOPING AND THE
NBM/LREF ARE IN LINE WITH GLOBAL MODELS IN SHOWING LESS THAN 500
J/KG OF SURFACE INSTABILITY AVAILABLE DURING PEAK HEATING SUNDAY.
BULK SHEAR INCREASES TO 40 TO 50 KTS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH BOTH THE 00Z
GFS AND 18Z ECMWF SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF
MUCAPE DEVELOPING. THE LATEST LREF IS BULLISH, SHOWING 300-600 J/KG
DEVELOPING OF MUCAPE DEVELOPING SUNDAY NIGHT. CONFIDENCE ON THESE
HIGHER LREF MUCAPE VALUES IS LOW AT THIS TIME. SO, THE SEVERE THREAT
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD REMAIN LOW, BUT A FEW STRONG, SUB-
SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
SOMETIME MONDAY. GUIDANCE IS STILL SPLIT ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT
WITH THE ECMWF REMAINING FASTER COMPARED TO THE GFS AND CANADIAN.
THUS, CONFIDENCE ON THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL ON MONDAY REMAINS
LOW AS THIS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON WHETHER THE FRONT TRACKS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING PEAK HEATING OR NOT. IF THE FRONT
PUSHES EAST PRIOR TO PEAK HEATING MONDAY THEN THE SEVERE THREAT WILL
BE LOWER. IF THE FRONT REMAINS OVER THE FORECAST AREA DURING PEAK
HEATING HOURS, THEN THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE HIGHER. WITH DEEP
LAYER SHEAR INCREASING TO 50 TO 60 KTS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MONDAY, IT WILL NOT TAKE TOO MUCH SURFACE INSTABILITY TO ALLOW
SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP ESPECIALLY WITH A 40 TO 50 KT LLJ OVERHEAD.
FOR NOW, IT APPEARS THAT EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL
HAVE THE BEST POTENTIAL TO SEE SEVERE STORMS DEVELOP ON MONDAY, PER
THE NBM, LREF, CANADIAN, AND GFS.
KEY MESSAGE 3: GUSTY WINDS DEVELOP IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE COLD FRONT
SUNDAY THROUGH LATE TUESDAY, PEAKING ON MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT
TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
GUSTY SE WINDS WILL DEVELOP WELL AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY
BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TURN
MORE S/SW AHEAD OF THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING, AND
WNW/NW BEHIND THE FRONT LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON (THE MOUNTAINS) INTO
LATE MONDAY EVENING (EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS). WIND SPEEDS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS, WITH WIND SPEEDS GRADUALLY INCREASING FROM SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO LATE MONDAY EVENING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. WIND SPEEDS EAST OF
THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA AS BOTH THE NBM
AND LREF GENERALLY SHOW LESS THAN A 20% CHANCE OF REACHING ADVISORY
CRITERIA (>45 MPH). PORTIONS OF THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS ARE
MORE LIKELY TO REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA (> 45 MPH) PER THE NBM WHICH
HAS MAINLY THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS SEEING ROUGHLY A 50% TO 70% CHANCE
FOR ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS. THE LREF SHOWS SLIGHTLY LOWER
PROBABILITIES, BUT WITH A 40 TO 50 KT LLJ TRACKING OVERHEAD ON
MONDAY, THINKING IS THAT THE NBM IS CLOSER TO REALITY REGARDING
GUSTS. THUS, A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTH
CAROLINA MOUNTAINS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. GUSTY NW/WNW WINDS WILL
LINGER THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING TUESDAY EVENING
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES.
KEY MESSAGE 4: A BRIEF PERIOD OF NORTHWEST FLOW SNOW SHOULD DEVELOP
ALONG THE NC/TN BORDER MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT, BUT ANY SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BELOW FREEZING MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY
NIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ALLOWING A BRIEF PERIOD OF NW FLOW SNOW
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP, MAINLY ALONG THE NC/TN BORDER. GUIDANCE IS STILL
SPLIT REGARDING HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE SO CONFIDENCE ON
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME. THE GFS CONTINUES TO
SHOW BETTER MOISTURE AVAILABLE COMPARED TO THE ECMWF. THE LATEST NBM
CAME IN SLIGHTLY HIGHER FOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
MONDAY NIGHT, BUT STILL SHOWS MOST LOCATIONS REMAINING BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA (<2"). CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH (FOR NOW...THIS
COULD CHANGE) THAT THIS WOULD BE A LOW IMPACT, SUB-ADVISORY EVENT AS
THE 24 HOUR SNOW ACCUMULATION PROBABILITIES FROM THE BOTH THE NBM
AND THE LREF ONLY DEPICT A 10% TO 15% CHANCE OF REACHING ADVISORY
CRITERIA SNOW ALONG THE NC/TN BORDER.
KEY MESSAGE 5: A MUCH COLDER AIR MASS RETURNS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH MOST AREAS LIKELY FALLING
NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING EACH NIGHT.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE DEPARTING
COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT, LINGERING OVER THE
REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW DRIER CONDITIONS AND BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO RETURN. THE COLDEST DAY SHOULD BE TUESDAY
BEFORE A GRADUAL WARMING TREND DEVELOPS THROUGH LATE WEEK. LOWS
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL FALL NEAR TO BELOW FREEZING AREA-
WIDE. SLIGHTLY WARMER LOWS RETURN WEDNESDAY NIGHT, BUT AREAS ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS ARE LIKELY TO FALL NEAR TO BELOW FREEZING AGAIN, WHILE
AREAS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS ARE MORE LIKELY TO REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE
FREEZING. ALTHOUGH THE GROWING SEASON HAS NOT OFFICIALLY STARTED,
THE RECENT PERIOD OF ABNORMALLY WARM WEATHER HAS ALLOWED SOME
VEGETATION TO START BLOOMING. ANY SENSITIVE PLANTS THAT HAVE ALREADY
BLOOMED WILL BE PARTICULARLY VULNERABLE TO THESE COLD TEMPERATURES
EACH NIGHT.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MAINLY
CIRRUS STREAMING OVERHEAD. LIGHT WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING PICK UP
FROM THE SOUTH AFTER DAYBREAK. WINDS INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND
BECOME GUSTY BY AFTERNOON. WINDS DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING.
OUTLOOK: VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY NIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL BRING A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO MONDAY. VFR
RETURNS ON TUESDAY.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
AR/RWH
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