709
FXUS62 KGSP 092328
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
728 PM EDT WED SEP 9 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1. DRY THROUGH THURSDAY, THEN DAILY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
RETURN STARTING FRIDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A COLD FRONT. ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES LINGER THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH THE HEAT
AND HUMIDITY EXPECTED TO PEAK ON FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: DRY THROUGH THURSDAY, THEN DAILY SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN STARTING FRIDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH
A COLD FRONT. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LINGER THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK, WITH THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY EXPECTED TO PEAK ON FRIDAY.
THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A PERIOD OF RELATIVELY TYPICAL
LATE-SUMMER WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS WITH
ONLY A FEW MINOR CONCERNS, AS THE UPPER PATTERN STAYS RELATIVELY
FLAT WITH MOST SYSTEMS PASSING BY TO OUR NORTH AND A BROAD FLAT
MID/UPPER ANTICYCLONE COVERING MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST. THE HEAT
AND HUMIDITY WILL BUILD THROUGH FRIDAY THANKS TO A SHEARING WAVE
TO OUR WEST, WITH A PEAK EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. YES, TEMPS WILL BE ON
THE ORDER OF 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, AND THE DEWPOINTS WILL REACH
BACK UP INTO THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S, BUT THE HEAT INDEX SHOULD STAY
ENOUGH BELOW CRITERIA THAT A HEAT ADVISORY IS NOT ANTICIPATED. AS
WE GET INTO THE WEEKEND, THE IDEA IS THAT A COLD FRONT STRUNG OUT
TO THE NORTH MIGHT DRIFT DOWN INTO OUR AREA, BUT THERE ISN'T MUCH
SUPPORT FOR DOING THAT. THE MODEL BLEND INDICATES ABOVE CLIMO PRECIP
PROBS FOR THE WEEKEND, PARTICULARLY SATURDAY, AND THE MAGNITUDE
LOOKS A LITTLE DUBIOUS, BUT AT LEAST THE SHOWER/STORM CHANCES
WILL INCREASE. NOT MUCH OF AN INDICATION THAT THE ENVIRONMENT WILL
SUPPORT ANYTHING MORE THAN TYPICAL THUNDERSTORMS, THUS A LOW (BUT
NON-ZERO) SEVERE STORM THREAT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. IF ANYTHING,
THE THREAT FOR EXCESSIVE RAIN IS THE ONE TO WATCH.
ONCE WE GET INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK, THE UPPER ANTICYCLONE
IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY BUILD WITH A CENTER OVER THE CAROLINAS,
SO THAT WILL KEEP THE TEMPS IN THAT 5-10 DEGREE ABOVE NORMAL
RANGE. SO, MORE SEASONALLY HOT WEATHER. PRECIP PROBS WILL ALSO BE
NEAR CLIMO. FEAR NOT, I GUARANTEE THAT SUMMER WILL END EVENTUALLY.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: VFR EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD, EXCEPT FOR
MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG AND PERHAPS SOME AROUND THE LAKES NEAR KHKY. THE
00Z AVL TAF WILL FEATURE A TEMPO FOR LIFR FOG FROM 09-13Z, WHICH
WAS SIMILAR TO WHAT OCCURRED THIS MORNING. CONFIDENCE AT KHKY IS
LOWER, AS TEMPS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE QUITE AS COOL TO SUPPORT AS
MUCH LAKE FOG. ANOTHER QUIET DAY EXPECTED THURSDAY, WITH FEW-SCT
CU DEVELOPING AGAIN BY MIDDAY. WIND WILL GENERALLY BE VRB OR CALM
THIS EVENING THRU DAYBREAK THURSDAY, THEN FAVOR S TO SW AROUND
5-7 KT THRU THE AFTN.
OUTLOOK: A COLD FRONT JUST TO OUR NORTH WILL BRING BACK DAILY SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES (AND POSSIBLY RESTRICTIONS) FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND.THE PROBABILITY OF MORNING FOG/LOW STRATUS WILL ALSO
INCREASE, ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
ARK/PM
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