404
FXUS62 KGSP 061033
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
633 AM EDT TUE OCT 6 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE AVIATION DISCUSSION HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THE 12Z ISSUANCE OF THE
TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
1. DRY AND QUIET THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. NEAR TO JUST BELOW
NORMAL HIGHS DEVELOP BRIEFLY TODAY BEFORE ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS
RETURN FOR THE REST OF THE WORKWEEK.
2. A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN BRINGS RAIN CHANCES BACK THIS WEEKEND,
POTENTIALLY LINGERING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. CONFIDENCE ON TIMING
AND DETAILS REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: DRY AND QUIET THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. NEAR TO JUST
BELOW NORMAL HIGHS DEVELOP BRIEFLY TODAY BEFORE ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS
RETURN FOR THE REST OF THE WORKWEEK.
TROUGHING WILL BE THE DOMINANT UPPER FEATURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
EASTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH FRIDAY. AT THE SURFACE, DRY HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE FOR THE CENTRAL AND MUCH OF THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. NEAR TO JUST BELOW
NORMAL HIGHS BRIEFLY DEVELOP TODAY BEFORE ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS RETURN
FOR THE REST OF THE WORKWEEK. HIGHS PEAK ON THURSDAY, ENDING UP
AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
KEY MESSAGE 2: A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN BRINGS RAIN CHANCES BACK THIS
WEEKEND, POTENTIALLY LINGERING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. CONFIDENCE ON
TIMING AND DETAILS REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME.
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
BUILDS NORTHWESTWARD TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
BEFORE SHIFTING SOUTH AND WEST INTO THE GULF EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MEANWHILE, AN UPPER LOW ATTEMPTS TO DEVELOP SOMEWHERE OVER TEXAS
BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEAST TOWARD THE TENNESSEE VALLEY/ MIDWEST OVER
THE WEEKEND AND THE NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW RICH
GULF MOISTURE TO STREAM INTO THE SOUTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND, OF
WHICH THERE WILL BE PLENTY THANKS TO A BOTH A STATIONARY BOUNDARY
AND A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE CREEPING NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE GULF
COAST.
THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN THE SOUTHWESTERN
GULF AND WILL EVENTUALLY LIFT NORTHWARD SOMETIME FRIDAY OR OVER THE
WEEKEND WHILE INTERACTING WITH THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY. PER THE NHC
THIS DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
BY MID-WEEK, DEPICTING THE SYSTEM AS HAVING A HIGH CHANCE OF
TROPICAL FORMATION THROUGH 48 HOURS. GLOBAL MODELS ARE NOT IN
AGREEMENT REGARDING THE STRENGTH, TIMING, OR EXACT TRACK OF THIS
SYSTEM WHICH IS TO BE EXPECTED AS THE SYSTEM CURRENTLY REMAINS A
DISORGANIZED CLUSTER OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS. GUIDANCE SHOULD
COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ONCE THE SYSTEM BECOMES MORE ORGANIZED.
FOR NOW, THE DISTURBANCE APPEARS TO TRACK NORTHWARD AND JUST WEST OF
THE GSP FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER, RAIN CHANCES STILL LOOK LIKELY FOR
LOCATIONS EAST OF THE DISTURBANCE BUT CONFIDENCE ON EXACT ARRIVAL
TIME AND DEPARTURE TIME OF RAIN REMAINS LOW. THE GFS IS THE FASTEST
SOLUTION, SHOWING RAIN RETURNING TO THE GSP FORECAST AREA BY
SATURDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON WHILE THE CANADIAN IS THE SLOWEST
SOLUTION WITH RAIN NOT ARRIVING UNTIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE
EURO IS CAUGHT IN THE MIDDLE, SHOWING RAIN ARRIVING SATURDAY
EVENING/NIGHT. THE GFS HAS DRIER CONDITIONS RETURNING BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK DUE TO IT BEING THE FASTER SOLUTION, WHILE THE CANADIAN AND
EURO HAVE RAIN LINGERING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THESE TWO
MODELS BEING THE SLOWER SOLUTIONS.
FOR NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING MAINLY BENEFICIAL RAIN
TO THE GSP FORECAST AREA. THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF TIME FOR THE
FORECAST TO CHANGE BETWEEN NOW AND THE WEEKEND SO MAKE SURE TO STAY
UP TO DATE WITH THE LATEST FORECAST INFORMATION REGARDING THIS
SYSTEM.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: THERE ARE TWO AREAS OF INTEREST FOR AVIATION
WEATHER ACROSS THE TERMINAL FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...THE FIRST
IS THE FOG/LOW STRATUS COVERING MUCH OF THE NC MOUNTAINS. THE WORST
OF IT HASN'T QUITE MADE IT TO KAVL, BUT THEY RECENTLY REPORTED
5SM/FEW002. BASED UPON TRENDS IN THE LATEST DERIVED SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND WITH SUNRISE LOOMING, THE WORST CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO
REMAIN JUST BEYOND THE AIRFIELD, BUT WILL CARRY A TEMPO FOR MVFR FOG
AND SCT003 FOR THE FIRST HOUR.
THE SECOND AREA OF INTEREST IS ACROSS THE NC PIEDMONT, WHERE
A REGION OF MVFR STRATUS IS MOVING STEADILY TOWARD KCLT FROM
THE EAST. CIGS AREN'T QUITE AS LOW AS SOME EARLIER GUIDANCE
WAS SUGGESTING THEY MIGHT BE...BUT A TEMPO FOR MVFR STILL SEEMS
REASONABLE AT KCLT FROM 13-16Z. ALL OTHER SITES SHOULD REMAIN VFR,
ALTHOUGH CAN'T RULE OUT SOME MVFR CIGS ALSO MAKING A RUN TOWARD KHKY
AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES. HAVING SAID THAT, THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH A STABLE LAYER ALOFT TO YIELD FEW/SCT
STRATOCU/CUMULUS IN THE 020-040 RANGE AT MOST SITES DURING THE
LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON, WITH CLOUD BASES STEADILY LIFTING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. NE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO STEADILY INCREASE
TO 8-12 KTS THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE WEAKENING AGAIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING. FOG/LOW STRATUS WILL RETURN TO THE MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS, WITH PREVAILING MVFR FOG BEING A REASONABLE FORECAST AT
KAVL. ALL OTHER TAF SITES ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK: VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG AND LOW STRATUS ARE POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
AR/JDL
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