210
FXUS62 KGSP 162348
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
748 PM EDT TUE JUN 16 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE AVIATION DISCUSSION WAS UPDATED TO REFLECT THE RECENT 00Z TAF
ISSUANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
1. MOSTLY-DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, WITH
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER DRIVEN BY A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE SOUTH.
2. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS AN UPPER
WAVE APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE GULF. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
AND DAMAGING WINDS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN
OVER THE WEEKEND BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: MOSTLY-DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY,
WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER DRIVEN BY A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE
SOUTH.
QUASI-ZONAL FLOW CONTINUES ALOFT THIS AFTERNOON WITH
A WEAKLY-CONFLUENT ZONE VISIBLE ON WV IMAGERY EXTENDING FROM
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND INTO THE SOUTHERN
REACHES OF OUR FORECAST AREA. BASED ON RECENT SURFACE OBS, THERE
WOULD APPEAR TO BE A STAGNANT STATIONARY FRONT LOCATED NEAR OR
JUST SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA'S SOUTHERN BORDER...ACROSS THE
LOWER UPSTATE OR THE SC MIDLANDS. LOTS OF LIGHT RADAR RETURNS
ARE STILL EVIDENT ACROSS THE UPSTATE, BUT GIVEN REPORTED DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS OF 10-20 DEGREES...THINK THE DRY AIR BEHIND THE FRONT
IS EVAPORATING MOST OF THAT PRECIPITATION, SO IT'S PRESENTING AS
VIRGA AND NEVER REACHING THE GROUND.
WEAK CONFLUENCE OVER THE DEEP SOUTH AND INTO THE CAROLINAS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT, CHANNELING RIPPLES OF Z500 VORTICITY
ACROSS THE AREA, BUT GENERALLY FAILING TO INDUCE ANY STRONG
UPGLIDE IN THE LOW LEVELS AS PER MOST OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE. AS A
RESULT...THINK RAIN WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH FOR MOST OF TODAY
AND TONIGHT. A FEW MODELS DEPICT A BRIEF SURGE IN WAA EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A POTENT SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY...WITH STRONGER FORCING STAYING TO OUR NORTH. THIS MAY BE
ENOUGH TO BRIEFLY SET UP A ROUND OF RAINFALL SOUTH OF I-85 ACROSS
THE UPSTATE, BUT DRY CONDITIONS ARE SET TO RETURN BY MID-MORNING,
AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST AND ANY LOW-LEVEL DYNAMICS GO WITH IT.
DESPITE SUSTAINED SW FLOW DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS, THE FRONT
ITSELF SHOULD REMAIN JUST TO OUR SOUTH, AND PROFILES SHOULD
REMAIN STABLE, AT LEAST WITH RESPECT TO SURFACE-BASED PARCELS.
CONSEQUENTLY, LITTLE TO NO AFTERNOON RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ON
WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD TOP OUT A SOLID TWO CATEGORIES BELOW
NORMAL OWING MAINLY TO WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT TO OUR SOUTH, AS WELL AS SOME DEGREE OF POSTFRONTAL CAA.
AS SW FLOW CONTINUES TOMORROW, HIGHS SHOULD RETURN TO WITHIN A
DEGREE OR TWO OF NORMAL IN MOST LOCATIONS.
KEY MESSAGE 2: RAIN CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS
AN UPPER WAVE APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE GULF. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND DAMAGING WINDS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. DRIER CONDITIONS
RETURN OVER THE WEEKEND BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
THE PATTERN SHOULD BECOME MORE ACTIVE LATE THIS WEEK. GUIDANCE
REMAINS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT BY WEDNESDAY EVENING, A TROPICAL
WAVE (OR PERHAPS EVEN A CLOSED LOW) WILL BE LOCATED SOMEWHERE
ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN GULF COAST. THAT FEATURE IS STILL PROGGED
TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING, INTERACTING WITH
THE PRE-EXISTING STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. MEANWHILE, A
500MB SHORTWAVE SHOULD TRACK OUT OF THE LOWER MIDWEST ON THURSDAY,
TRAILING THE TROPICAL WAVE AS IT ARRIVES IN THE CAROLINAS.
THE 12Z SUITE OF OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE HAS COME IN SLOWER, WITH
LESS PROMINENT PHASING OF THE SHORTWAVE AND TROPICAL WAVE, IN
FAVOR OF MORE INTERACTION WITH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY AND AN
OVERALL MORE SOUTHWARD STORM TRACK. THE BIGGEST CHANGE TO THE
FORECAST THAT RESULTS FROM THIS IS THAT THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST QPF
GETS SHIFTED SOUTH...OUT OF THE NC MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE
UPSTATE (OR EVEN, IN SOME ENSEMBLE MEMBERS, SOUTH OF OUR AREA
ENTIRELY). STILL, WOULD LIKE TO SEE A MORE CONSISTENT TREND
BEFORE EXPRESSING MUCH CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO; QPF SPREAD
REMAINS ENORMOUS EVEN AMONG THE SUBSET OF ENSEMBLES THAT FEATURE
THIS SCENARIO, SO A LOT IS STILL, UNFORTUNATELY, UP IN THE AIR
AS TO WHAT, IF ANY, HEAVY RAIN / FLASH FLOOD THREAT MAY
MATERIALIZE.
A SECONDARY ISSUE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER AS THE
SYSTEM ARRIVES. THERE ARE SEEMINGLY TWO OPPORTUNITIES FOR SEVERE
WEATHER TO DEVELOP; FIRST, ALONG THE REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER
THE UPSTATE ON THURSDAY EVENING OR OVERNIGHT...WHERE DECENT SHEAR
WILL DEVELOP WITHIN THE STRONGER FLOW ALOFT, AND LOW-LEVEL SRH MAY
BE FURTHER ENHANCED NEAR THE FRONT ITSELF...AND SECOND, ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON, AS THE TRAILING COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE 500MB
SHORTWAVE ARRIVES IN THE AREA. FOR AT LEAST THE FORMER OF THE TWO,
THE THREAT WILL BE MODERATED BY THE ULTIMATE PATH OF THE
DISTURBANCE...WHICH AS DESCRIBED ABOVE, REMAINS IN QUESTION.
A SOMEWHAT MORE RELIABLE SEVERE RISK LOOKS WARRANTED ON FRIDAY
AHEAD OF THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT, BUT EVEN THEN, MUCH WILL DEPEND
ON WHAT STORM ENVIRONMENT EXISTS IN THE WAKE OF THE WAVE.
THE WEEKEND FORECAST HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT,
CONDITIONS SHOULD DRY OUT AND BEGIN TO WARM BACK UP FOR SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. HOWEVER,
THE UPPER PATTERN WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE, WITH INDICATIONS THAT
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION BY MONDAY.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: EXTENSIVE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER
WILL GRADUALLY PUSH EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. DEEPER
MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OR SO OF THE TERMINAL FORECAST
AREA WILL RING OUT SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS...THIS EVENING, BUT PRECIP
CHANCES ARE SUCH THAT VCSH IS WARRANTED ONLY AT KAND. OTHERWISE,
LOW CIGS ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA ARE EXPECTED
TO MAKE SOME PROGRESS NORTH AND EAST TONIGHT, WITH MOSTLY MVFR CIGS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT THE UPSTATE SC TERMINALS AND KCLT BETWEEN
MIDNIGHT AND DAYBREAK. THE PROBABILITY OF IFR CIGS WILL INCREASE
FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST, AND AT LEAST TEMPO IFR IS FORECAST AT KAND
AND KGMU. WITH THE UPPER CLOUDS EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE MOUNTAINS LATE
TONIGHT, FOG/POSSIBLE LOW STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN EXPANDING
IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS BY DAYBREAK...AND TEMPO MVFR VISBY HAS BEEN
INTRODUCED AT KAVL. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY LATE MORNING
AS WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE TURN TO MORE OF A DRYING NW FLOW. MAINLY
SW SURFACE WINDS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD, MOSTLY LIGHT
OVERNIGHT...INCREASING TO 8-12 KTS BY EARLY WED AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK: CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT STILL LOOK SIMILAR TO TONIGHT,
WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE, BUT BRIEF MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS
POSSIBLE BEFORE DAYBREAK THURSDAY. MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY.
DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
JDL/MPR
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