835
FXUS62 KGSP 011135
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
635 AM EST THU JAN 1 2026
SYNOPSIS
DRY AND WARMER THROUGH FRIDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS RAIN TO
THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY BEFORE DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS
RETURN SUNDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 633 AM EST NEW YEAR'S DAY:
KEY MESSAGE #1: WEAK COLD FRONT TO BRING GUSTY WINDS AND SNOW
FLURRIES ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD, SENDING A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT SOUTH TOWARDS
THE CWFA. GUSTY WINDS DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE BOUNDARY AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. 925-850MB WINDS UPTICK TO 30-40 KTS,
WHICH SUPPORTS A WIND ADVISORY IN AVERY COUNTY AND ABOVE 3500' IN
MITCHELL, YANCEY, AND BUNCOMBE THROUGH NOON TODAY. DRY FOR THE REST
OF THE AREA, WITH A FEW HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING OVER HEAD. CONTINUED
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL PUT OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR-NORMAL. 700-850MB
FRONTOGENESIS ALSO CRANKS UP THROUGH THIS MORNING, WHICH WILL
PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING TO SQUEEZE OUT A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS, NEAR THE TN BORDER THROUGH MID-MORNING OR SO,
DESPITE A VERY SHALLOW MOISTURE LAYER. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED.
KEY MESSAGE #2: DRY CONDITIONS WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO
START OUT 2026.
THE BACKDOOR FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE CWFA DURING THE DAYTIME
PERIOD, BUT IS SHOWN STALLING WHILE TRYING TO MAKE A PUSH FURTHER
SOUTH AND BECOMING MORE DIFFUSE THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. CONTINUED SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND MAX
INSOLATION WILL LEAD TO AFTERNOON HIGHS RUNNING 3-6 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. SOME VARIABILITY WILL COME IN WIND DIRECTION AS THE FRONT
TRIES TO MAKE ITS WAY SOUTHWARD, BUT THAT'S ABOUT THE ONLY REAL
IMPACT ACROSS THE CWFA. NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THIS AFTERNOON
AS RH LEVELS REMAIN ABOVE 30% AS DEWPOINTS CLIMB INTO THE 20S AND
LOWER 30S. INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST BY
DAYBREAK FRIDAY AS WE TURN OUR ATTENTION TO THE SOUTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM THAT WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY THIS TIME. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH DECENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS IN PLACE.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 1220 AM EST THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGE #1: DRY FRIDAY WITH HIGHS ABOVE NORMAL.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. EVEN SO, HIGHS WILL BE AROUND
5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
KEY MESSAGE #2: RAIN EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
A WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER OR JUST
SOUTH OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY. MODEL CONSENSUS HAS CONTINUED A TREND
OF HIGHER POP AND QPF ACROSS THE REGION WITH CATEGORICAL POP AND 0.5
TO 1.25 INCHES OF MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL. SOME PRECIP COULD LINGER
SATURDAY EVENING BUT QUICKLY TAPERS OFF AFTER AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY.
GUIDANCE STILL SHOWING NO WINTRY PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH
LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND HIGHS SATURDAY
NEAR TO A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL. THAT SAID, HIGHS COULD BE COLDER IF
IN-SITU DAMMING DEVELOPS. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 1250 AM EST THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGE #1:DRY WITH A WARMING TREND SUNDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA SUNDAY AND SLOWLY MOVES EAST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS APPROACH THE AREA BUT
NEVER ARRIVE AS THEY ARE SHUNTED OFF TO THE NORTH AND WEST. THIS
BRINGS A RETURN TO DRY CONDITIONS AND TEMPS RISING TO AROUND 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ARE STREAMING OVER THE TERMINALS,
BUT SHOULD THIN OUT DURING THE DAYTIME PERIOD. KAVL COULD SEE
SOME LOW-END VFR TO MVFR STRATOCU AROUND OR JUST AFTER DAYBREAK,
SO HINTED AT THIS WITH A SCT035 MENTION STARTING AROUND 14Z AND
CLEARING OUT LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS, BEFORE BECOMING
DUE WESTERLY BY THE AFTERNOON. CAN'T RULE OUT SOME LOW-END GUSTS
DURING PEAK HEATING AT ALL TAF SITES. A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT WILL
MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH AND COULD CAUSE THE DIRECTION TO BECOME
MORE VARIABLE AT TIMES LATER IN THE AFTERNOON, BUT GUIDANCE HAS
TRENDED TOWARDS A MOSTLY WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT THROUGH
A GOOD CHUNK OF THE PERIOD, WITH KAVL MAINTAINING A NORTHWESTERLY
WIND. INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY AS A
STORM SYSTEM INCHES CLOSER FROM THE WEST OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
OUTLOOK: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO LINGER THROUGH FRIDAY. A STORM
SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS TO THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. DRY, VFR CONDITIONS RETURN ON SUNDAY
AND PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NCZ033-049-050-053.
SC...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...CAC
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...CAC
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