071
FXUS62 KGSP 260606
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
106 AM EST WED NOV 26 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT MOVES TO THE CAROLINA COAST TODAY. MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES ARRIVE BEHIND THE FRONT AND CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT ARRIVES SUNDAY WITH A SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ON TUESDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 1116 PM TUESDAY: A POTENT NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH EXTENDING
THROUGH THE MIDWEST AND INTO THE APPALACHIANS WILL LIFT ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND INTO NEW ENGLAND TODAY AND TONIGHT. A BAND OF
SHOWERS SUPPORTED BY UPPER DIVERGENCE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
OF AN UPPER JET CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA AND WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. WITH TIME, THIS ACTIVITY
WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST BY DAYBREAK. RAIN COOLED AIR HAS KEPT A
STABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AND
INTO THIS EVENING WITH DESTABILIZATION AND SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY
CONFINED WELL TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST. WHILE A FEW ISOLATED LIGHTNING
STRIKES CANNOT BE RULED OUT, THUNDERSTORMS AND ANY SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL ARE GENERALLY NOT EXPECTED. CLOUDS WILL LIFT AND SCATTER
THROUGH THE MORNING AFTER SUNRISE, BUT THE ACTUAL SURFACE COLD FRONT
WILL STILL BE LOCATED OFF TO THE WEST AND ISN'T FORECAST TO MOVE
INTO THE MOUNTAINS UNTIL VERY LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR YET ANOTHER WARM DAY, ESPECIALLY WITH
COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL
RETURN TO THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S WITH A FEW READINGS POTENTIALLY
PUSHING BACK INTO THE MID 70S. THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO HAVE MOVED
THROUGH THE AREA BY THIS EVENING WITH COLD ADVECTION QUICKLY RAMPING
UP IN ITS WAKE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE MID 20S TO MID 30S
BY THURSDAY MORNING WITH GUSTY WINDS. A SHARP PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND STRONG 850MB FLOW WILL SUPPORT A WINDOW FOR
ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS OF 40-50KTS (45-55MPH) ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF YANCEY, MITCHELL AND AVERY COUNTIES. A SUBSEQUENT WIND
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 1230 AM EST WEDNESDAY: A DEEP TROUGH STARTS OUT OVER THE AREA
AND THEN SLOWLY MOVES EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE FLOW BECOMING
ZONAL THEN SOUTHWESTERLY BY SATURDAY AS A SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO THE
MID-SOUTH. AT THE SURFACE, A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE OVER
THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE RELAXING FRIDAY AS THE CENTER
OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE HIGH SETTLES
INTO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT THEN THE CENTER MOVES OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY WITH A RIDGE OVER OUR AREA IN A CAD
CONFIGURATION. WINDY TO BREEZY CONDITIONS REMAIN OVER THE AREA
THROUGH FRIDAY. A VERY DRY AIR MASS MOVES IN AS WELL WITH RH FALLING
BELOW 25% FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. THE STRONGEST WINDS AND LOWEST RH
DON'T OVERLAP, BUT THERE MAY BE ENOUGH OF AN OVERLAP FOR INCREASED
FIRE DANGER, ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AFTER DRYING TAKES PLACE ON
THANKSGIVING DAY. COORDINATION WITH LAND MANAGERS MAY BE NEEDED. THE
LOW RH CONTINUES SATURDAY BUT WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER. THE OTHER
STORY IS THE COLD AIR MASS MOVING IN. HIGHS WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL ON THANKSGIVING, DROPPING TO 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. LOWS AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
THURSDAY NIGHT FALL TO 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY NITE.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 1255 AM EST WEDNESDAY: FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN THIS
PERIOD AS GUIDANCE DISAGREES ON THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM DUE TO
VARIANCES IN THE DEVELOPING SPLIT FLOW REGIME.
IN GENERAL, A COLD FRONT ATTACHED TO A NORTHERN STREAM LOW OVER THE
GREAT LAKES AND A SOUTHERN STREAM GULF LOW MOVES INTO THE AREA
DURING THE SUNDAY TIME FRAME AND TO OUR EAST IN THE MONDAY TIME
FRAME. A SECOND SOUTHERN STREAM GULF LOW TAKES ON A MILLER A LOOK IN
THE TUESDAY TIME FRAME. THE TIMING AND THERMAL PROFILES OF THESE
SYSTEMS DIFFERS AMONG THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES. IF THE PRECIP AHEAD
OF THE FRONT COULD MOVE IN FAST ENOUGH SATURDAY NIGHT, COLD AIR
LINGERING IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AND NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE COULD HELP
CREATE SOME FREEZING RAIN OR A WINTRY MIX BEFORE THE STRONGER WARM
NOSE AND WARMING SURFACE TEMPS KICK IN CHANGING ALL THE PRECIP TO
RAIN. IF THE PRECIP ONSET IS LATE, THEN ONLY RAIN IS EXPECTED. EVEN
WITH THE EARLIER ONSET, WINTRY ACCUMS WOULD BE LIMITED AND VERY
LIGHT.
PRECIP BRIEFLY TAPERS OFF MONDAY BEFORE RETURNING WITH THE SECOND
WAVE ON TUESDAY. A HYBRID CAD DEVELOPS WHICH WOULD KEEP TEMPS ON THE
COLD SIDE. STILL, THE GUIDANCE DIFFERS WITH SOME SHOWING JUST RAIN
AT ONSET WHILE OTHERS SHOW ANOTHER BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN
BEFORE GOING TO ALL RAIN. DEPENDING ON HOW FAST THE LOW MOVES, NW
FLOW SNOW COULD DEVELOP BY LATE TUESDAY OR COULD BE DELAYED UNTIL
LATER. FOR NOW, THE POTENTIAL WINTRY PRECIP TUESDAY MORNING WOULD
AGAIN BE LIMITED AND VERY LIGHT IF IT DEVELOPS.
LOWS BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY NIGHT WARM TO AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. HIGHS 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL SUNDAY, RISE TO A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL MONDAY, THEN BACK
DOWN TO 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY. TEMPS DEPENDENT ON THE
STRENGTH OF THE WEDGE AND PRECIP TIMING.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: POOR FLYING CONDITIONS WITH A MYRIAD OF
RESTRICTIONS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. A BROKEN BAND OF SHOWERS CONTINUES TO SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE
AREA THIS EVENING WITH ASSOCIATED VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. ALSO IN
THE MIX IS A DECK OF LOW STRATUS WITH MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS ALONG
WITH PATCHY FOG. AS THE SHOWERS MOVE OUT, LOW STRATUS WILL FILL IN
WITH CEILINGS RANGING FROM LIFR ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS TO MVFR AT
KCLT. LOCALLY DENSE FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY AT KHKY.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE FOLLOWING SUNRISE AS WINDS INCREASE AND MIX
OUT THE FOG AND DAYTIME WARMING HELPS TO LIFT AND SCATTER THE LOW
STRATUS. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN TO VFR AREA WIDE BY MID MORNING.
THEREAFTER, GUSTY WINDS WILL BE COMMON THIS AFTERNOON OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL
DROP ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING WITH WINDS
SHIFTING TO OUT OF THE NORTH BEHIND THE BOUNDARY ALONG WITH A FEW
LINGERING GUSTS.
OUTLOOK: DRIER AND PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD LINGER
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
NCZ033-049-050.
SC...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...TW
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...TW
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