701
FXUS62 KGSP 112322
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
722 PM EDT THU JUN 11 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
1. MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION IS FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
WITH ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE.
2. HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION IS FORECAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, WITH ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE.
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A WEAKENING UPPER RIDGE, THE ATMOSPHERE
HAS BECOME HOT AND UNSTABLE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH SBCAPE OF 2500-3000 J/KG ANALYZED ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA. ISOLATED DEEP CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO INITIATE ALONG THE
RIDGE TOPS OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS, AND COVERAGE IS EXPECTED
TO GRADUALLY EXPAND ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON,
WITH ISOLATED ACTIVITY EVENTUALLY EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. THE ROBUST
INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG-TO-SEVERE
PULSE STORMS, ESPECIALLY DURING LATE AFTERNOON. CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO LARGELY DISSIPATE BY LATE EVENING, GIVING WAY TO A
VERY WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT.
THE AXIS OF THE UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BE OVER THE AREA FRIDAY,
RESULTING IN EVEN HOTTER CONDITIONS. HAVING SAID THAT, FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ARE MORE SUPPRESSED AND A LITTLE DRIER (ESPECIALLY IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER) WITH HIGH LCLS INDICATED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AS
SUCH, INITIATE OF DIURNAL DEEP CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED
IN OUR FORECAST ARE. HOWEVER, A REGION OF MODEST HEIGHT FALLS IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE APPALACHIANS FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE
DAY...LIKELY RESULTING IN AT LEAST SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING
ALONG AN ATTENDANT WEAK BOUNDARY ACROSS EAST TN DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON. AT LEAST SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE INTO FAR
WESTERN NC DURING THE EVENING. WHILE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN UNIMPRESSIVE, LOW LEVEL SHEAR MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO PROMOTE
CELL CLUSTERING ALONG OUTFLOWS, WHICH ALONG WITH TYPICAL PULSE
ACTIVITY WILL SUPPORT AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM THREAT. CONSIDERING
THE TIMING WITH RESPECT TO THE DIURNAL COOLING CYCLE, THE POTENTIAL
FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE OVERNIGHT
IS VERY UNCERTAIN, BUT THE SEVERE STORM THREAT IS NEVERTHELESS
EXPECTED TO WANE PAST MID-EVENING.
THE UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO PROGRESS OFF THE EAST COAST BY
SATURDAY, WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF A TYPICAL DIURNAL CONVECTIVE
CYCLE EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING, WITH MOSTLY SCATTERED
ACTIVITY FORECAST OVER THE MTNS AND ISOLATED-AT-MOST COVERAGE ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. THE NEXT ROUND OF (MORE SUBSTANTIAL)
HEIGHT FALLS IS FORECAST TO IMPACT THE EAST BY THE END OF THE DAY
SUNDAY, ENHANCING THE POTENTIAL FOR DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS MAINLY
THE MOUNTAINS BY SUNDAY EVENING. IMPROVING SHEAR PARAMETERS MAY
SUPPORT ANOTHER SEVERE STORM THREAT DURING THIS TIME.
THE GLOBAL MODELS AGREE IN DEPICTING ESTABLISHMENT AND GRADUAL
STRENGTHENING OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE EAST DURING THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. ATTENDANT BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL SET UP
OVER THE SOUTHEAST, POTENTIALLY PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR ROUNDS OF
CONVECTION. HOWEVER, THIS ACTIVITY MAY...AND IN FACT IS MOST LIKELY
TO (PER CURRENT GUIDANCE) IMPACT LOCATIONS JUST SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE CWA, AND OUR FORECAST CURRENTLY CARRIES ONLY TOKEN CHANCE
POPS FOR MOSTLY DIURNAL CONVECTION MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. COOLER
TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO FORECAST UNDER THE ANOMALOUSLY LOW HEIGHTS,
WITH GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS FORECAST FROM TUESDAY ONWARD.
KEY MESSAGE 2: HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE, CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE QUITE HOT THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH TEMPS FORECAST TO BE AT
LEAST 5 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH SUNDAY. WITH THE AXIS OF THE
RIDGE OVERHEAD, FRIDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE HOTTEST DAY, WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID-90S FORECAST FOR ALL AREAS OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS, AND
LOWER 90S IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. THE INCREASINGLY SUBSIDENT REGIME
SHOULD MAKE FOR A LITTLE DRIER AIR MASS, AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE
FORECAST TO MIX OUT A BIT DURING THE AFTERNOON...TAKING A BIT OF
AN EDGE OFF THE HEAT INDEX POTENTIAL. NEVERTHELESS, PEAK HI VALUES
OF 99-102 ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. THIS
IS SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 105, BUT BEING
THE FIRST TRULY HOT DAY OF THE YEAR, WE'LL ISSUE A HEAT ADVISORY
FOR AREAS THAT ARE JUST SHY OF CRITERIA...NAMELY CHARLOTTE PROPER
AND AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF THERE.
WITH THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING EAST, SATURDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE
A LITTLE "COOLER," BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL, WITH SOME POTENTIAL
FOR NEAR-HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA BEING MET ACROSS THE LAKELANDS,
ESPECIALLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPS MAY WARM SLIGHTLY AGAIN
SUNDAY IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING FRONTAL ZONE, WITH AGAIN SOME
POTENTIAL FOR NEAR-HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. TEMPERATURES BEGIN A
COOLING TREND AT THE BEGINNING OF THE NEW WORK WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISHING,
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AT MOST TERMINALS. KAVL AND KHKY
COULD SEE VSBY RESTRICTIONS INTO MVFR AND BRIEFLY IFR FOR BR AND LOW
STRATUS BETWEEN 09-13Z. MOSTLY LIGHT TO CALM SW WINDS OVERNIGHT AND
PICK UP AGAIN FRIDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON OUT OF THE S/SW. KAND AND
KGMU COULD SEE LOW-END GUSTS OF 15-20KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER ROUND OF TSRA COULD OCCUR AS A WEAK FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE NW. WILL GO WITH A PROB30 AT KCLT AND MOUNTAINS SITES WITH VCSH
ELSEWHERE. EXPECT WINDS TO TURN MORE NW AFTER 00Z AT KCLT.
OUTLOOK: DIURNAL CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. VALLEY FOG AND LOW STRATUS IS POSSIBLE EACH
MORNING, PRIMARILY IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.
CLIMATE
RECORDS FOR 06-12
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 91 2016 61 1903 69 1981 40 1988
1894 1964 1972
KCLT 98 1956 64 1913 74 1998 45 1972
1926 1986
1902 1943
KGSP 99 1914 61 1913 74 1981 47 1972
1920
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR NCZ071-072-082.
SC...NONE.
CP/JDL
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