810
FXUS62 KGSP 140001
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
801 PM EDT THU AUG 13 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED THE AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
1. HEAT ADVISORY FRIDAY FOR MOST OF THE UPSTATE AND NE GA AND PART
OF THE CLT METRO. HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
WELL INTO NEXT WEEK WITH TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT INDEX VALUES EXPECTED
OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS.
2. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING
FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. A FEW COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING ANY GIVEN DAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: HEAT ADVISORY FRIDAY FOR MOST OF THE UPSTATE AND NE GA
AND PART OF THE CLT METRO. HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE WELL INTO NEXT WEEK WITH TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT INDEX VALUES
EXPECTED OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS.
AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE SETTLES NEAR THE AREA INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS
WILL LEAD TO INCREASING THICKNESS VALUES AND HOT CONDITIONS WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. MONDAY LOOKS TO HAVE THE HIGHEST TEMPS WITH SOME
LOCATIONS NEAR 100. DESPITE SOME MIXING OF DEW POINTS DURING THE
AFTERNOON, THEY WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH FOR HEAT INDEX VALUES TO EXCEED
105 FOR MANY LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-85 CORRIDOR, AND
POSSIBLY THE I-40 CORRIDOR AS WELL. SOME LOCATIONS SOUTH OF I-85
COULD APPROACH 110. FOR NOW, CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH TO PUT MOST
OF THE UPSTATE AND NE GA, AND PORTIONS OF THE CLT METRO IN A HEAT
ADVISORY FOR FRIDAY. GIVEN THAT ONLY A SMALL DEVIATION IN TEMPS OR
DEW POINTS MAKES A BIG CHANGE TO HEAT INDEX VALUES, EVERYONE SHOULD
STAY UP TO DATE WITH THE LATEST FORECASTS AS HEAT ADVISORIES AND
POSSIBLY AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING MAY BE NEEDED THROUGH THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD.
KEY MESSAGE 2: SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON
AND EVENING FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. A FEW COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING ANY GIVEN DAY.
DESPITE THE BUILDING UPPER ANTICYCLONE, THE MCS TRACK REMAINS NEAR
OUR AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW DAILY MCV TO MOVE NEAR THE AREA HELPING
KICK OFF DIURNAL CONVECTION. A WEAK BOUNDARY MAY ALSO DROP SOUTH
INTO THE AREA SATURDAY INCREASING THE DIURNAL CONVECTIVE COVERAGE ON
THAT DAY. SATURDAY ALSO HAS A BETTER CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS WITH
THE BETTER FORCING INTERACTING WITH THE VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS,
ALTHOUGH A FEW SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY. THE
BOUNDARY DISSIPATES SUNDAY WITH A RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL
CONVECTIVE AND SEVERE STORM CHANCES. ANY GIVEN AFTERNOON/EVE WILL
ALSO HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS DWINDLING
AS WE HEAD LATER INTO THE EVENING. TOOK OUT ANY TEMPOS WITH TSRA
AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS AT ALL TERMINALS. CAN'T RULE OUT A
PASSING SHOWER AT KAVL OVER THE NEXT HOUR, SO PLACED A TEMPO
FOR SHRA, BUT REMAINING DRY THROUGH TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING
FOR THE REST OF THE TERMINALS. SCT MID TO UPPER CLOUDS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE EVENING WITH LEFTOVER CLOUD DEBRIS FROM THE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. INCLUDED MVFR VSBY AND SCT003 CIGS AND TEMPO
FOR 1/2SM VSBY AND OVC003 CIGS FOR KAVL WITH THE POTENTIAL OF
MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG/LOW STRATUS, ESPECIALLY WITH TODAY'S RAINFALL
IN THE VALLEYS. CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY,
SO PROB30S FOR TSRA AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS AT ALL TAF SITES
WITH THE EXCEPTION FOR KAND FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON, BUT MAY NEED
TO BE INCLUDED IN LATER UPDATES. WINDS WILL GENERALLY RUN WEST TO
NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD, WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK: SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON
WITH FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FOR LOW STRATUS AND FOG EACH
MORNING, ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR GAZ018-026-028-
029.
NC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR NCZ070>072-082.
SC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR SCZ008>014-019-
104>109.
CAC
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