666
FXUS62 KGSP 192347
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
647 PM EST THU FEB 19 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED THE AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 00Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
1. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS RETURN LATE TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A COLD FRONT.
2. A COMPLEX PATTERN WILL BRING CONTINUED RAIN CHANCES OVER THE
WEEKEND, WITH GENERALLY LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXPECTED.
3. WINTER RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH VERY GUSTY NW WINDS,
ACCUMULATING NORTHWEST FLOW SNOW SHOWERS, AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: SCATTERED SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS RETURN LATE TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A COLD FRONT.
DRY CONDITIONS RETURN BRIEFLY THIS EVENING INTO LATE TONIGHT BEFORE
RAIN CHANCES RETURN FRIDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS ACROSS THE
AREA. MOISTURE RETURN AND FORCING WILL BE ENOUGH FOR NUMEROUS
SHOWERS IN THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS AND AT LEAST SCATTERED
SHOWERS ELSEWHERE. WEAK INSTABILITY MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER OR TWO, BUT ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ISOLATED AT BEST. QPF
WILL REMAIN LIGHT, ALTHOUGH A FEW HEAVIER DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE
WITH STRONGER SHOWERS. SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST
BEHIND THE FRONT, WITH DRY CONDITIONS RETURNING AREA-WIDE BY EARLY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS WILL LINGER IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
FRONT, BUT SHOULD REMAIN SHY OF WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. LOWS TONIGHT
WILL BE WARMER THAN THE NORMAL HIGHS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. DESPITE
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, ANY COLDER AIR WILL BE DELAYED WITH MORE OF A
WESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE BEHIND THE FRONT. THUS, HIGHS WILL MAKE RUN
AT RECORDS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS THANKS TO THE RETURN OF MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES DURING PEAK HEATING. HIGHS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WILL
REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL BUT SHOULD FALL SHORT OF RECORDS.
KEY MESSAGE 2: A COMPLEX PATTERN WILL BRING CONTINUED RAIN CHANCES
OVER THE WEEKEND, WITH GENERALLY LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXPECTED.
AN INITIALLY BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL DEEPEN AS IT PROGRESSES ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY OVER THE WEEKEND, AS A SERIES
OF SPEED MAXIMA EJECT FROM THE GREAT PLAINS THROUGH SUNDAY. THE
LEADING EDGE OF A FRONTAL ZONE IS FORECAST TO LOITER NEAR THE
SOUTHERN BOUNDARY OF THE CWA THROUGH SAT. IN RESPONSE TO ONE ROUND
OF HEIGHT FALLS MOVING OUT OF THE PLAINS, LIFT NEAR THE LEADING EDGE
OF THE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT,
WARRANTING AN INCREASE OF POPS TO 60-80% ACROSS ROUGHLY THE SE HALF
OF THE CWA...WITH SOLID CHANCES TO THE NW. WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY
IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS ON SAT...AND CAN'T RULE
OUT SOME SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY BEING REALIZED DEPENDING UPON
WHERE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETS UP. WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 70+
KTS EXPECTED, THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED SEVERE
WEATHER...ALTHOUGH THIS THREAT APPEARS TO BE MARGINAL AT MOST.
A LULL IN THE PRECIP APPEARS LIKELY LATER SAT...BUT FORECAST
CONFIDENCE DECREASES SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUN, OWING TO UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF CYCLOGENESIS NEAR THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. THE GFS...AN TO A LESSER EXTENT THE CANADIAN SUGGEST SOME
FRONTOGENETICAL RESPONSE, WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP OVER THE
FORECAST AREA, WHILE OTHER GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE PAINTS A
DRIER SCENARIO, WITH WEAKER CYCLOGENESIS OCCURRING A LITTLE TOO FAR
SOUTH AND EAST. SIGNALS IN ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGEST TOKEN CHANCE
POPS TO BE THE PATH OF LEAST REGRET SAT NIGHT. OVERALL TEMPORAL
TRENDS IN GUIDANCE HAVE BEEN TOWARD LOWER QPF...AND OUR LATEST
FORECAST FEATURES WEEKEND TOTAL QPF MOSTLY IN THE 0.25-0.33" RANGE.
KEY MESSAGE 3: WINTER RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH VERY GUSTY NW
WINDS, ACCUMULATING NORTHWEST FLOW SNOW SHOWERS, AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
UPPER TROUGH AND ATTENDANT STRONG COLD ADVECTION REGIMES SLAMS INTO
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND VICINITY SUNDAY. VERY GUSTY NW WINDS
WILL SET UP WITHIN THIS REGIME, WITH AT LEAST WIND ADVISORY-LEVEL
WINDS LOOKING LIKE A GOOD BET IN THE USUAL DOWNSLOPE AREAS ALONG THE
EASTERN ESCARPMENT OF THE BLUE RIDGE THROUGH EARLY MONDAY.
ADDITIONALLY, THE STRONG NW FLOW INTERACTING WITH LINGERING MOISTURE
FROM THE TN VALLEY INTO THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL
RESULT IN UPSLOPE SHOWERS BEGINNING SUNDAY, WHEN TEMPS WILL MOSTLY
BE SUPPORTIVE OF SNOW. INGREDIENTS FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE BEST ALIGNED LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY, AS
MOISTURE DEEPENS IN RESPONSE TO ONE LAST SPEED MAX THAT IS FORECAST
TO DIG WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS SUN NIGHT. TEMPERATURES IN THE MOIST
LAYER ARE EXPECTED TO COOL TO AS LOW AS -20 DURING THIS TIME, WHICH
WOULD RESULT IN EFFICIENT PRODUCTION OF DENDRITIC SNOW CRYSTAL
GROWTH...AND AT LEAST MINOR ACCUMS OF SNOW APPEAR TO BE A GOOD BET
IN THE FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS ALONG THE TN/NC BORDER.
COLD ADVECTION WILL YIELD MAX TEMPS OF 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, AND MORE LIKE 10-15 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. HEIGHTS WILL STEADILY RISE THROUGH MID-
WEEK, WITH THE AIR MASS STEADILY MODIFYING AS A WARM SECTOR BECOMES
ESTABLISHED IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM. AS A RESULT,
TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO WARM ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
THURSDAY. POPS ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACH OF THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM
INCREASE TO SOLID CHANCE BY EARLY THURSDAY.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: DRY AND VFR THROUGH LATE TONIGHT BEFORE A
COLD FRONT BRINGS -SHRA CHANCES AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS BACK BY
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FRIDAY. CIGS SHOULD DROP TO MVFR TO IFR
LEVELS ~08-10Z, LINGERING THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS, BEFORE VFR RETURNS EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, KAVL
WILL LIKELY SEE RESTRICTIONS LIFT BY MID-MORNING. PROB30S FOR -SHRA
AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS WERE MAINTAINED ACROSS THE TERMINALS
DURING THE MORNING HOURS FRIDAY. DRY CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY
RETURN FROM WEST TO EAST BEHIND THE FRONT DURING THE MID TO LATE
MORNING HOURS FRIDAY. WIND DIRECTION EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL
REMAIN SW THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE TOGGLING MORE W/WSW FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. WIND DIRECTION ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WILL REMAIN S/SW
THROUGH DAYBREAK FRIDAY BEFORE TURNING NW BEHIND THE FRONT ~14-16Z.
GUSTY WINDS RETURN LATE TONIGHT AND WILL LINGER THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY
EVENING, RANGING FROM 18-25+ KTS.
OUTLOOK: RAIN CHANCES AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS RETURN THIS
WEEKEND. GUSTY WINDS RETURN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. RESTRICTIONS
SHOULD END MONDAY FOR ALL BUT KAVL WHERE LOW CLOUDS MAY LINGER.
CLIMATE
RECORDS FOR 02-20
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 75 1939 26 1908 54 2018 4 2015
KCLT 77 2014 31 2015 59 1939 7 2015
1890
KGSP 75 2014 33 2015 57 1939 9 2015
1986
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
AR/JDL/RWH
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