293
FXUS62 KGSP 102327
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
727 PM EDT THU SEP 10 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
RAIN CHANCES ARE TRENDING DOWNWARD FOR THE WEEKEND.
KEY MESSAGES
1. QUIET WEATHER BEFORE DAILY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
RETURN FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HUMIDITY AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES REMAIN THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: QUIET WEATHER BEFORE DAILY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES RETURN FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HUMIDITY AND ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAIN THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY.
GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER AS UPPER FLOW REMAINS FLAT WITH WEAK SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST. BY FRIDAY, A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
APPROACHES THE AREA, BUT LOOKS TO GET HUNG UP WEST OF THE CWA.
HOWEVER, A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES TRAVERSE THROUGH THE REGION AND PEAK
ON SATURDAY, INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. GUIDANCE
DEPICTS RATHER WEAK FORCING AND INSTABILITY, DECREASING CONFIDENCE
FOR ANY SEVERE WEATHER ON SATURDAY. LATEST GUIDANCE ALSO DECREASES
POP CHANCES FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, LIKELY LOCKING ONTO THE ABOVE
MENTIONED HINDRANCES. MOISTURE STARTS TO TICK BACK UP WHEN SURFACE
WINDS BECOME MORE S/SW FRIDAY NIGHT, ELEVATING THE HUMIDITY ONCE
AGAIN. ALL THIS TO SAY, SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE HIGHEST
SATURDAY, WITH PROBABILITIES TAPERING SUNDAY AND MUCH DRIER BY
MONDAY.
ADDITIONALLY, THE HEAT IS NOT QUITE DONE WITH THE SOUTH AS
WIDESPREAD MID 90S PEAK ON FRIDAY FOR LOCATIONS EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER, HEIGHT FALLS WITH THE APPROACHING BOUNDARY HELPS
TO SOMEWHAT COOL TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES. BUT, HUMIDITY KEEPS HEAT
INDICES IN THE UPPER 90S WITH A FEW LOCATIONS FEELING SPOTTY LOW
100S IN THE TYPICAL AREAS.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: VERY SIMPLE TAFS FOR THE 00Z
ISSUANCE. PERIODS OF MAINLY HIGH-BASED CU UNDER AREAS OF THIN CI
THRU THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT, MAINLY OUT OF THE SW. STILL
EXPECT DECENT AMOUNT OF MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT,
AND WILL CONTINUE WITH A TEMPO FOR SOME LIFR CONDITIONS AT KAVL
BEFORE DAYBREAK. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. GUIDANCE SHOWS
AT LEAST ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTN, BUT COVERAGE
APPEARS TOO LOW TO WARRANT ANY MENTION IN ANY OF THE TAFS AT
THIS TIME.
OUTLOOK: MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE AREA ON SATURDAY, THEN SCATTERED AFTN/EVE CONVECTION EXPECTED
SUNDAY AND MONDAY, MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. MORNING FOG/LOW STRATUS
WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY, ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
ARK/CP
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