758
FXUS62 KGSP 150548
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
148 AM EDT TUE SEP 15 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST.
THE AVIATION DISCUSSION WAS UPDATED FOR THE 06Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
1. WARM LATE SUMMER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE, WITH SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE RISK
FOR IMPACTFUL WEATHER APPEARS LOW UNTIL WE GET TO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: WARM LATE SUMMER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE, WITH SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE RISK
FOR IMPACTFUL WEATHER APPEARS LOW UNTIL WE GET TO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS, THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN EASTERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW BEHIND THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT, NOW WELL TO OUR SOUTH,
SHOULD RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF CLOUDINESS AND A FEW SHOWERS
STARTING NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE ESCARPMENT AND SPREADING OUTWARD
FROM THERE. THE EVENING SHIFT RAISED PRECIP CHANCES OVER THE NC
FOOTHILLS AND THEY MIGHT HAVE TO BE RAISED A BIT MORE, BUT AT
LEAST ANY RAIN SHOULD BE BENEFICIAL.
A FAIRLY INTERESTING, BUT ULTIMATELY BENIGN, SLOW EVOLUTION OF
THE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT WEEK OR SO. THE
MID/UPPER ANTICYCLONE OVER THE TN VALLEY REGION THIS MORNING SHOULD
DRIFT BACK TO THE WEST SLOWLY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT, BUT WITH
A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TO THE
MID-ATLANTIC. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A WEAK ELONGATED SFC
HIGH OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC TO NEW ENGLAND COASTAL REGION THAT WILL
MORE OR LESS MAINTAIN THE WEAK AND DRY COLD AIR DAMMING REGIME OF
SORTS OVER OUR REGION. THE EFFECT WILL BE MINIMAL AS MOISTURE IS
LACKING AND SUPPORT FOR PRECIP IS ALSO LACKING. SO, AS TEMPS COOL
BACK DOWN CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR TODAY, IN PART DUE TO AN EXPECTED
LATE START WITH SOME MORNING CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS, THAT WON'T
LAST LONG. AIR MASS MODIFICATION WILL ALLOW FOR A STEADY INCREASE
IN HIGH TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEK, BACK UP INTO THE 90S BY THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. WE AREN'T DONE WITH SUMMER YET. BY THURSDAY WE GET
RIGHT BACK TO THE SUMMERTIME CLIMO PRECIP PROBS WITH CHANCES OVER
THE MTNS, AND THE PRECIP PROBS EXPAND OUTWARD AND UPWARD EACH DAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NONE OF THIS LOOKS TERRIBLY SIGNIFICANT AT
THIS POINT.
ONCE WE GET INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE SITUATION MAY CHANGE A BIT
DEPENDING ON WHAT HAPPENS WITH A WEAK MID-LEVEL LOW THAT TRACKS
WESTWARD ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA AND THEN POSSIBLY STALLS OVER THE
NRN GULF COAST ON MONDAY. AT A MINIMUM, BETTER MOISTURE FLUX FROM
EITHER THE ATLANTIC OR THE GULF IS EXPECTED BY MONDAY, SO PRECIP
PROBS INCREASE ACCORDINGLY. CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW OUT ON THE DAY
6-7 PERIODS, BUT SUFFICE TO SAY THE THREAT FOR EXCESSIVE RAIN WILL
START TO CREEP UPWARD.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: STRATUS HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED OVER PORTIONS
OF THE AREA AS A BACKDOOR FRONT CONTINUES TO SLIDE SOUTH ACROSS
THE REGION, WITH MOST CLOUD BASES REMAINING AT VFR. CLOUD BASES
SHOULD LOWER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD TO MVFR, WITH SPORADIC IFR
POSSIBLE. PLACED EITHER A PREVAILING LINE OR TEMPO FOR MVFR CIGS,
BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW FOR AN IFR MENTION AT THIS TIME. CAN'T
RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER AT KCLT/KHKY/KGSP/KGMU AROUND DAYBREAK,
SO THAT IS ALSO INCLUDED IN THE TEMPO. THE LOW STRATUS WILL
GRADUALLY LIFT AND SCATTER OUT LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS BY THIS TIME,
WITH SOME LINGERING VFR CU AND MID TO HIGH CLOUDS AROUND THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS ARE MOSTLY EAST TO NORTHEASTERLY
AT 5-10 KTS AND COULD GET AS HIGH AS 8-12 KTS AROUND DAYBREAK
BEFORE LOSING STEAM BY THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT.
OUTLOOK: MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. SHOWER CHANCES AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS
INCREASE LATER IN THE WEEK. MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG AND LOW STRATUS
IS POSSIBLE EACH MORNING THROUGH THE WEEK.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
CAC/PM
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