416
FXUS62 KGSP 181917
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
317 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
A WIND ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 3500 FEET IN THE
NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST GEORGIA. GUSTY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT HAVE
TRENDED UPWARD SLIGHTLY ON SUNDAY MORNING.
KEY MESSAGES
1. BREEZY, MOSTLY DRY, AND HOT AGAIN TODAY WITH AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES FLIRTING WITH RECORD HIGHS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. A
COLD FRONT BRINGS COOLER TEMPERATURES, GUSTY WINDS, AND BENEFICIAL
RAIN TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. HOWEVER, WITH ONLY LIGHT RAINFALL
AMOUNTS EXPECTED, THERE WILL BE VERY LITTLE (IF ANY) RELIEF FROM
THE DROUGHT AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL STICK AROUND.
2. NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY-BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST
MONDAY AND TUESDAY, WITH FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS CONTINUING. SOME
FROST IS POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND/OR NORTHWEST NORTH
CAROLINA PIEDMONT SUNDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY NIGHT,
SO PRECAUTIONS MIGHT BE NEEDED TO PROTECT SENSITIVE VEGETATION.
3. VERY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS RETURN WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND,
EXACERBATING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AND DROUGHT CONDITIONS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP BEHIND A COLD FRONT LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING, WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS IN THE
MOUNTAINS. MUCH COOLER AIR FOLLOWS, ENDING THE RECENT STRETCH OF
SUMMER-LIKE WARMTH.
THE MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST IN THE NEAR TERM IS A COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY POSITIONED ACROSS THE OHIO, TENNESSEE, AND LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, ANOTHER SUMMER-LIKE
AFTERNOON IS UNDERWAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S, AND
SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND FOOTHILLS LIKELY REACHING
AROUND 90 DEGREES BY LATE AFTERNOON.
THE FRONT WILL APPROACH QUICKLY TONIGHT, LIKELY REFORMING EAST OF
THE MOUNTAINS AS IT MOVES INTO THE AREA. A WEAK SURFACE LOW IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY NEAR THE NORTHERN BLUE RIDGE
THIS EVENING AND TRACK NORTHEAST TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
MOST GUIDANCE, INCLUDING THE 12Z HREF AND REFS, KEEPS THE BULK OF
SHOWER ACTIVITY WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH MIDNIGHT. A LOW
PROBABILITY EXISTS FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM NEAR SUNSET
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH, BUT FORCING IS WEAK AND INSTABILITY IS LIMITED. ANY
PRECIPITATION THAT DOES DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES
EAST INTO THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, RESULTING
IN MINIMAL RAINFALL AND LITTLE RELIEF FROM ONGOING DRY CONDITIONS.
THE PRIMARY IMPACT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE SURGE OF GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS AND THE ARRIVAL OF MUCH COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT.
STRONG PRESSURE RISES ON THE ORDER OF 5 TO 9 MB IN SIX HOURS ARE
EXPECTED IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE BOUNDARY BETWEEN ROUGHLY 09Z AND 15Z
SUNDAY. THIS WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD GUSTY WINDS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS WHERE GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED, WITH 40 TO
50 MPH LIKELY ALONG THE HIGHEST RIDGES. A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT
FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 3500 FT IN THE WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS
FROM 6 AM TO 2 PM SUNDAY. PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE FROM THE NBM AND
REFS SUPPORTS THE HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD OF ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS ALONG
THE BLUE RIDGE ESCARPMENT DURING THE MORNING HOURS. OUTSIDE OF THE
MOUNTAINS, GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED.
KEY MESSAGE 2: TEMPERATURES RETURN TO NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. SOME FROST IS POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS
AND/OR NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA PIEDMONT SUNDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY
MONDAY NIGHT, SO PRECAUTIONS MIGHT BE NEEDED TO PROTECT SENSITIVE
VEGETATION. WARM WEATHER RETURNS WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. CAA AND WEAKENING WINDS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
FALL SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW CLIMO, REACHING THE MID TO LOWER 30S
IN PORTIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN FOOTHILLS, SO FROST
MAY BE ABLE TO FORM IN AREAS SHELTERED FROM THE WINDS, THOUGH
DRY DEWPOINTS COULD BE A LIMITING FACTOR. ON MONDAY, CAA WILL BE
REINFORCED AS A STRONGER AREA OF CONTINENTAL HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY, BENEATH
THE CONFLUENT AREA UPSTREAM OF THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH. THIS
SHOULD BRING A DRY BACKDOOR COLD FRONT INTO THE CWA. EXCEPTIONALLY
DEEP MIXING IS SHOWN ON PROG SOUNDINGS FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON,
SUGGESTING THE REDEVELOPMENT OF GUSTY WINDS. GUST POTENTIAL IS NOT
QUITE AS HIGH AS SUNDAY, THOUGH SOME RIDGETOPS COULD APPROACH WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA. CAA WILL CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT AS THE BACKDOOR
FRONT PUSHES SOUTHWARD. ENOUGH WIND IS EXPECTED TO LINGER OVER THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA TO OFFSET COOLING, SUCH THAT THOSE AREAS
SHOULD SEE OVERNIGHT MINS SIMILAR TO THOSE THE PREVIOUS NIGHT. THE
MOUNTAINS AND NORTHWEST NC PIEDMONT (GENERALLY NEAR/NORTH OF I-40)
ARE MORE LIKELY TO DECOUPLE AND THUS TREND COLDER, WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD TEMPS IN THE MID TO LOWER 30S. DRY AIR AGAIN WILL BE A
LIMITING FACTOR FOR FROST EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS, SO THE MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS WOULD APPEAR TO BE MOST AT RISK, BASED ON THE CURRENT
FORECAST. MAX TEMPS TUESDAY HOWEVER WILL REBOUND SEVERAL DEGREES
IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AS SW FLOW REDEVELOPS BY AFTERNOON; OTHER
AREAS WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THRU THE AFTERNOON.
WITH HEIGHTS RISING ALOFT AND CONDITIONS SUPPORTING AIRMASS
MODIFICATION, TEMPS TREND WARMER TUE NIGHT ONWARD. MAXES WED-FRI END
UP 7-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL UNDER CONTINUED MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. THE
NEXT FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST FRIDAY NIGHT. GLOBAL ENSEMBLES
ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING, THOUGH PROBABILITIES FOR
ENOUGH RAIN TO IMPROVE FIRE WEATHER OR DROUGHT ARE VERY SMALL. SMALL
POPS DO HOWEVER RETURN TO THE WESTERN ZONES.
KEY MESSAGE 3: RAIN CHANCES REMAIN VERY LOW FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY BECOMING VERY LOW EACH
AFTERNOON. THESE CONDITIONS WILL EXACERBATE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
AND DROUGHT CONDITIONS.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BEING THE DOMINANT FEATURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
FROM SUNDAY THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK, PRECIP CHANCES OVER OUR AREA
WILL REMAIN NEAR ZERO. THE PREDOMINANTLY NORTHWEST FLOW OCCURRING
SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL HELP ADVECT DRY CONTINENTAL AIR INTO THE
REGION, AND ALSO PROMOTE DEVELOPMENT OF GUSTY WINDS DURING THOSE
AFTERNOONS, ENHANCING FIRE DANGER. ANY IMPROVEMENT IN FUEL MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH RAINFALL SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING IS LIKELY
TO BE VERY SHORT-LIVED.
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ARRIVE BEHIND THE FRONT BEFORE DAYBREAK
SUNDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WHILE THE STRONGEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR IN THE MORNING, BEFORE THE REALLY DRY
AIR MOVES IN DURING THE AFTERNOON, THERE WILL BE ENOUGH OF AN
OVERLAP FOR WINDS AND RH VALUES TO POTENTIALLY MEET RED FLAG
CRITERIA, ESPECIALLY IN NE GA ON SUNDAY. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH WAS
ISSUED FOR RABUN AND HABERSHAM COUNTIES, WHERE LAND MANAGEMENT
OFFICIALS ARE ESPECIALLY CONCERNED ABOUT THE DRY FUELS IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS WHERE SPRING GREEN-UP IS NOT YET AS PROMINENT AS IN THE
THE PIEDMONT.
THOUGH WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LESS OF A FACTOR ON THE SUBSEQUENT
AFTERNOONS, AS TEMPERATURES TREND BACK WELL ABOVE NORMAL AND RH
CONTINUES TO DIP BELOW 30% EACH AFTERNOON, FUEL MOISTURE IS LIKELY
TO REMAIN ON A DOWNWARD TREND, EVEN THOUGH SPRING GREEN-UP WILL
CONTINUE. HENCE FIRE DANGER IS LIKELY TO REMAIN NEAR THE TOP OF OUR
CONCERNS THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD (FRIDAY). A FRONTAL
SYSTEM MAY REACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST NEXT WEEKEND, THOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT ANY MEANINGFUL RAINFALL WILL RESULT.
AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: DRY AND VFR THROUGH LATE TONIGHT THANKS TO
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING OVER THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL TRACK
ACROSS THE TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING BRINGING -SHRA
CHANCES AND POSSIBLY ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS. THUS, INTRODUCED
PROB30S FOR -SHRA THIS TAF CYCLE. CONFIDENCE ON -SHRA IS HIGHEST AT
KAVL WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS AS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT PUSHES ACROSS AND EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS. WINDS WILL BE CALM TO LIGHT AND VRB THROUGH EARLY THIS
MORNING BEFORE PICKING UP OUT OF THE SW BY MID TO LATE MORNING WHILE
GRADUALLY INCREASING IN SPEED. LOW-END GUSTS FROM 16-19 KTS WILL
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING EARLY THIS EVENING. WINDS
WILL REMAIN SW AHEAD OF THE FRONT, FLIPPING NW BEHIND THE FRONT LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. GUSTY WINDS WILL DEVELOP ALONG
AND BEHIND THE FRONT LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY, WITH GUSTS RANGING
FROM 18-25 KTS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS AND 23-32 KTS AT KAVL. CIRRUS
WILL CONTINUE PASSING OVERHEAD, THICKENING FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
AFTERNOON INTO DAYBREAK SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
OUTLOOK: RAIN CHANCES AND POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS LINGER THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING. GUSTY WINDS LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY. DRY AND VFR
CONDITIONS RETURN BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, LINGERING INTO NEXT WEEK.
CLIMATE
RECORDS FOR 04-18
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 90 1896 44 1921 60 1927 28 1905
1891
KCLT 93 1896 45 1983 66 1896 32 2001
KGSP 89 2002 51 1983 66 1927 28 1905
1967
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...INCREASED FIRE DANGER UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GAZ010-
017-018-026-028-029.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR GAZ010-017.
NC...WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 2 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR NCZ033-049-050-
052-053-059-062>064-505.
SC...NONE.
JCW/JK
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