123
FXUS62 KGSP 230549
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
149 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED THE AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 06Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
1. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL INCREASE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA TODAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. THE SEVERE
RISK WILL CONTINUE INTO THE LATE EVENING, BUT SHOULD TAPER OFF
GOING INTO TONIGHT.
2. BRIEF DRYING DEVELOPS WEDNESDAY BEFORE DIURNAL SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AND THE
WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS ARE EXPECTED TO
CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S OVER THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL INCREASE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA TODAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY.
THE SEVERE RISK WILL CONTINUE INTO THE LATE EVENING, BUT SHOULD
TAPER OFF GOING INTO TONIGHT.
COVERAGE HAS GENERALLY DIMINISHED OVER THE LAST 2 HOURS, AS THE
ENVIRONMENT BEGINS TO BECOME LESS FAVORABLE FOR STRONG CONVECTION.
BIGGEST CONCERN FOR THE IMMEDIATE FUTURE REMAINS AN MCS ADVANCING
RAPIDLY ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN TENNESSEE...BUT THERE ARE ALREADY
INDICATIONS ON RADAR THAT IT'S LOSING ITS ORGANIZATION AS IT
APPROACHES THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. SOME REDEVELOPMENT IS NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION, FIRST OVER THE UPSTATE AFTER MIDNIGHT, AND
THEREAFTER ALONG THE ACTUAL ADVANCING FRONTAL BOUNDARY VERY EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, THE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE INCREASINGLY
HOSTILE TO CONVECTION BY THIS POINT IN TIME, SO THINK THE SEVERE
RISK SHOULD DROP OFF CONSIDERABLY BY LATE THIS EVENING.
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SHOWERS OR EVEN THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT EXITS ACROSS E/SE ZONES (GENERALLY
IN THE AREA S OF I85 AND E OF I26) BUT WITHOUT THE UPPER SUPPORT
OF THE MCV JUST EXPECTING GENERAL THUNDER.
KEY MESSAGE 2: BRIEF DRYING DEVELOPS WEDNESDAY BEFORE DIURNAL SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AND THE
WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS ARE EXPECTED TO
CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S OVER THE WEEKEND.
DRIER CONDITIONS AND INCREMENTALLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT, BUT A WEAKNESS DEVELOPS IN THE UPPER
FLOW SPLITTING THE UPPER WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE FROM THE DESERT SW
RIDGE, ALLOWING A RETURN OF DIURNAL CONVECTION IN THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WORK WEEK AS TEMPERATURES BEGIN RISING. BY THE END OF THE
WEEKEND, HIGHS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT ARE PROGGED TO BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 90S, WITH HEAT INDICES EXCEEDING 100. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
THAT HEAT PRODUCTS MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA, DEPENDING
ON HOW MUCH DEWPOINTS MIX OUT IN THE AFTERNOONS.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: A FAIRLY BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS OVER EASTERN
TN IS ABOUT TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN NC MTNS, THOUGH IT WILL LIKELY
BECOME MORE SCT AS IT DOES SO. THERE'S A DECENT CHANCE THAT KAVL AND
KHKY WILL GET SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM THIS, SO I HAVE TEMPOS FOR
-SHRA FROM ROUGHLY 08 TO 12Z AND MVFR VISBY/CIGS. FOR KCLT AND THE
UPSTATE TERMINALS, CONFIDENCE IS LOWER SO I HAVE PROB30S AND VCSH
THRU MID/LATE MORNING. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR EMBEDDED THUNDER
WITH THIS ACTIVITY, BUT MOSTLY SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED. ANY CIG RE-
STRICTIONS SHOULD LIFT/SCT BY LATE MORNING, WITH VFR EXPECTED FOR
THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. SOME OF THE NEAR-TERM GUIDANCE STILL
TRIES TO DEVELOP SOME SCT SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN SC UPSTATE AND
SOUTHERN NC PIEDMONT THIS AFTN, BUT THIS IS LOOKING LESS LIKELY
TO OCCUR. OTHERWISE, I STILL EXPECT A TRANSITION TO NW FLOW AFTER
DAYBREAK, WITH LOW-END GUSTS CARRIED AT ALL TAF SITES.
OUTLOOK: MOSTLY DRY, VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
DIURNAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN ON FRIDAY AND
CONTINUE THRU THE WEEKEND.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
JPT/MPR/TDP
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