273
FXUS62 KGSP 160547
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
147 AM EDT WED SEP 16 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
PRECIP CHANCES WERE RAISED FOR SATURDAY.
THE AVIATION DISCUSSION WAS UPDATED TO REFLECT THE RECENT 06Z
TAF ISSUANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
1. WARM LATE SUMMER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE NORMAL. THE SITUATION BECOMES
UNSETTLED OVER THE WEEKEND WITH A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTS AFFECTING
OUR AREA INTO NEXT WEEK, THOUGH THE THREAT FOR SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
REMAINS LOW.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: WARM LATE SUMMER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE NORMAL. THE SITUATION BECOMES
UNSETTLED OVER THE WEEKEND WITH A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTS AFFECTING
OUR AREA INTO NEXT WEEK, THOUGH THE THREAT FOR SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
REMAINS LOW.
WE BEGIN WITH AN INTERESTING ALMOST WEDGE-LOOK ALIKE SITUATION
TODAY, WITH A POSITIVELY-TILTED UPPER RIDGE EMANATING FROM THE
MID/UPPER ANTICYCLONE STILL CENTERED OVER THE TN VALLEY REGION
SUPPORTING A WEAK SFC HIGH OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC/SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND COASTAL REGIONS. THIS WEAK SFC HIGH ISN'T IN A GREAT SPOT
AND THERE WON'T BE ANY FORCING OTHER THAN A LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW,
SO ANY COLD AIR DAMMING SIGNAL SHOULD GET OVERWHELMED BY LATE
MORNING. ONCE THE SUN PEEKS OUT, TEMPS WILL RISE ABOVE NORMAL.
THE UPPER ANTICYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TO CONTROL OUR WEATHER AS
IT RETROGRADES TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND OZARK PLATEAU REGION
THROUGH FRIDAY. AS THIS HAPPENS, THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME A
BIT MORE FAVORABLE FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION, MAINLY LIMITED TO THE
MOUNTAINS ON THURSDAY, BUT THEN WITH CHANCES ACROSS THE WHOLE
REGION ON FRIDAY. TEMPS SHOULD PEAK BACK UP INTO THE 90S OUTSIDE
THE MTNS, BUT FAR FROM HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE WEEKEND IS
LOOKING PERHAPS A BIT MORE UNSETTLED AS THERE IS SOME INDICATION
THAT A SFC HIGH MOVING ACROSS EASTERN CANADA TO NEW ENGLAND WOULD
PUSH ANOTHER BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT INTO OUR AREA BY SATURDAY. THIS
BOUNDARY COULD DROP TEMPS BACK DOWN INTO THE 80S AND BE A FOCUS FOR
MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING,
THOUGH FOR NOW THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS LOW. THE
SITUATION GETS MORE UNCERTAIN FROM SUNDAY ONWARD AS MOISTURE
INCREASES WITH A WEAK UPPER LOW ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AND
LESS OF AN INFLUENCE OF UPPER RIDGING ACROSS OUR AREA. THERE COULD
BE A REINFORCING FRONT MOVING DOWN FROM THE NORTH AS WELL. THE NBM
SHOWS TEMPS DROPPING DOWN INTO THE LOWER 80S FOR HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY,
BUT CONFIDENCE IN THAT HAPPENING IS LOW AT THIS POINT.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: LOW-END VFR TO MVFR STRATOCU HAS SPREAD
ACROSS THE AREA, WHICH WILL IMPACT TERMINALS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
THROUGH AT LEAST MID-MORNING. GUIDANCE HASN'T HANDLED THIS
DEVELOPMENT WELL, BUT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND CONTINUED EASTERLY
FLOW SHOULD HELP TO KEEP THIS CLOUD DECK AROUND. THE QUESTION
IS HOW LOW WILL THE CLOUDS BASES GET. RIGHT NOW, MVFR CIGS ARE
MAINLY ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE ESCARPMENT. HOWEVER, CIGS LIKELY LOWER
THROUGH THE NIGHT, SO MVFR CAN'T BE RULED OUT AT ALL TAF SITES,
WHILE MVFR CONTINUES AT KAVL. CLOUD COVER SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT
AND SCATTER A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE AND ALLOW ALL TERMINALS TO
RETURN TO VFR BY LATE MORNING. CAN'T RULE OUT MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG
AND LOW STRATUS, ESPECIALLY WHERE STRATOCU DOESN'T DEVELOP. KEPT
THE TEMPO GOING AT KAVL FOR LIFR CIGS AND MVFR FOG AROUND DAYBREAK,
BUT WILL DEPEND ON THE EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD AT 4-8 KTS OUT OF
THE EAST TO NORTHEAST. WINDS MAY TREND MORE EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY
BY THE EVENING. UNCERTAINTIES REMAIN FOR ANOTHER LOW CLOUD DECK
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, SO WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THROUGHOUT THE DAY TO
SEE IF RESTRICTIONS RETURN.
OUTLOOK: SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WITH ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS INCREASE GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG
AND LOW STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH MORNING.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
CAC/PM
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