134
FXUS62 KGSP 102318
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
718 PM EDT WED JUN 10 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED THE AVIATION DISCUSSION.
KEY MESSAGES
1. MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION AND ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED THRU THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION AND ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED THRU THE WEEKEND.
THE TAIL END OF AN EMBEDDED UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL PASS JUST TO OUR
NORTH AND THEN OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS
FEATURE COMBINED WITH A WEAK BOUNDARY FROM A DISSIPATED MCS WILL
HELP PROVIDE FORCING FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ACROSS OUR AREA THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. INSTABILITY HAS BEEN TRENDING UPWARDS, BUT SHEAR
REMAINS MINIMAL ACROSS OUR AREA. WE COULD SEE A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS BEFORE THE DAY IS OVER, BUT THAT'S ABOUT IT. ISOLATED HEAVY
DOWNPOURS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE, BUT THEY SHOULD BE MORE LIMITED THAN
WHAT WE SAW YESTERDAY (TUESDAY).
OTHERWISE, AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA THRU FRIDAY BEFORE
A SERIES OF UPPER SHORTWAVES BRINGS MORE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT FOR THE
WEEKEND, WITH A BROAD UPPER TROF DEVELOPING EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION THURS THRU THE WEEKEND, FAVORING
THE MTNS EACH DAY DUE TO THE RIDGE LIMITING INSTABILITY AND CREATING
HIGHER LFC'S OUTSIDE THE MTNS. MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IS LIKELY
ACROSS OUR AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE HEIGHT FALLS AND SHORTWAVE
ACTIVITY. WE CAN ALSO EXPECT ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS OUR
AREA THRU THE WEEKEND, WITH FRIDAY EXPECTED TO BE THE WARMEST DAY.
AT PRESENT, THE PROBABILITY OF HIGHS ABOVE 90 DEGREES OUTSIDE OF
THE MTNS IS HIGH THURS THRU SUNDAY. THE PROBABILITY OF HIGHS ABOVE
95 DEGREES IS LOWER FOR OUR AREA AND MORE LIKELY TO OUR EAST AND
SOUTH. THIS STILL PRODUCES HEAT INDEX VALUES NEAR 100 DEGREES FOR
THURS, AND UP TO 103 DEGREES OVER OUR SOUTHERN ZONES ON FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES THEN STEADILY FALL TO NEAR-NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
HEIGHTS FALL WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER TROF.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT MOST SITES FOR THIS
TAF ISSUANCE. LINGERING SHRA AND TSRA SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT AND LEAVE MOSTLY SKC. GIVEN THE MOISTURE REGIME FOR THE
AREAS, KAVL AND KHKY COULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF FG/BR IN THE EARLY
HOURS. THERE WASN'T AS MUCH RAINFALL IN THESE LOCATIONS BUT
CONFIDENCE IS STILL HIGH ENOUGH TO KEEP THE TEMPOS FROM 09Z-12Z FOR
1/2SM AND 1SM AT KAVL AND KHKY RESPECTIVELY. WINDS SHOULD ALSO GO
CALM OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS SITES AND STAY LIGHT, BUT SW
ELSEWHERE. AFTER DAYBREAK THURSDAY, A FEW -TSRA POSSIBLE FOR THE MTN
TERMINALS DURING THE AFTERNOON, BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW AT KCLT TO
WARRANT ANY MENTION AT THIS TIME.
OUTLOOK: DIURNAL CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS ARE
EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND. MTN VALLEY FOG AND LOW STRATUS WILL
BE POSSIBLE EACH MORNING.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
CP/JPT
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page