844
FXUS62 KGSP 020030
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
730 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED FOR NEW AVIATION DISCUSSION.
KEY MESSAGES
1. COLD AIR DAMMING DEVELOPS BEHIND A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TONIGHT
AND CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE AS WELL,
WITH TEMPERATURES POTENTIALLY COLD ENOUGH FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF
FREEZING RAIN ALONG THE NORTHERN BLUE RIDGE.
2. KEY MESSAGE: COLD AIR DAMMING LINGERS ON TUESDAY KEEPING COOL
HIGHS AROUND BEFORE THE WEDGE ERODES WEDNESDAY, ALLOWING MUCH
WARMER AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO RETURN THE REST OF THE
WEEK. DAILY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES RETURN EACH AFTERNOON
STARTING THURSDAY, WITH THE BEST CHANCES EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: COLD AIR DAMMING DEVELOPS BEHIND A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
TONIGHT AND CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE AS
WELL, WITH TEMPERATURES POTENTIALLY COLD ENOUGH FOR A BRIEF PERIOD
OF FREEZING RAIN ALONG THE NORTHERN BLUE RIDGE.
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING CLOUDS AND A DRY ONSET COLD AIR DAMMING EVENT. GUSTY NE
WINDS DEVELOP OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS AS THE DAMMING HIGH MOVES IN.
ISENTROPIC LIFT REMAINS WEAK ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA, BUT THERE IS
AN INCREASE IN DEEPER MOISTURE AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY ACROSS MAINLY NC
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THIS LEADS TO BETTER RAIN CHANCES THERE,
ESPECIALLY THE MOUNTAINS AND I-40 CORRIDOR, WITH CHANCES DIMINISHING
ACROSS THE UPSTATE AND NE GA. GUIDANCE HAS GENERALLY TRENDED WARMER
REGARDING ANY FREEZING TEMPERATURES AND POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN
EARLY MONDAY. CAN'T RULE OUT SOME SPOTTY FREEZING RAIN ALONG THE
NORTHERN BLUE RIDGE WITH ACCUMS GENERALLY LIMITED TO ELEVATED
SURFACES. ELSEWHERE, CAN'T RULE OUT SOME SLEET MIXING IN WITH PRECIP
ONSET AS TEMPS WET BULB DOWN, BUT THIS SHOULD BE JUST THE USUAL
BRIEF "GEE WHIZ" VARIETY THAT OFTEN OCCURS IN THESE SITUATIONS.
A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE MONDAY EVENING
ALONG THE NORTHERN BLUE RIDGE AS TEMPS BEGIN TO COOL. ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE HAS REMAINED ON THE COOL SIDE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A
LIGHT ICE ACCRETION IN THE CHANCE RANGE FOR THESE LOCATIONS. STILL,
THIS REMAINS UNCERTAIN. PRECIP CHANCES BEGIN TAPERING OFF ALL
LOCATIONS MONDAY NIGHT AS THE BETTER LIFT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA.
GIVEN THE COLD AIR DAMMING DEVELOPING, TEMPS HAVE BEEN LOWERED FROM
THE MODEL BLEND FOR ALL PERIODS. STILL, LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE WARMER AIR MASS IN PLACE. HIGHS MONDAY
10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH THE WEDGE SETTING IN. LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT UP TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
KEY MESSAGE 2: KEY MESSAGE: COLD AIR DAMMING LINGERS ON TUESDAY
KEEPING COOL HIGHS AROUND BEFORE THE WEDGE ERODES WEDNESDAY,
ALLOWING MUCH WARMER AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO RETURN
THE REST OF THE WEEK. DAILY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES RETURN
EACH AFTERNOON STARTING THURSDAY, WITH THE BEST CHANCES EXPECTED
OVER THE WEEKEND.
COLD AIR DAMMING BECOMES MORE IN-SITU TUESDAY AS THE CENTER OF THE
SURFACE HIGH TRACKS FARTHER INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. GUIDANCE IS
NOT IN GREAT AGREEMENT REGARDING THE STRENGTH OF THE LINGERING COLD
POOL, SO CONFIDENCE ON TUESDAY'S HIGHS REMAINS LOW. THE GFS APPEARS
TO BE ONE OF THE WARMER SOLUTIONS DUE TO THE MODEL TRYING TO ERODE
THE WEDGE SOMEWHAT, WHILE THE NAM APPEARS TO BE ONE OF THE COLDER
SOLUTIONS DUE TO THE MODEL KEEPING THE WEDGE LOCKED IN PLACE. OPTED
TO UNDERCUT THE RAW NBM SOMEWHAT BY BLENDING IN SOME OF THE NBM 25TH
PERCENTILE FOR HIGHS ON TUESDAY AS MODEL GUIDANCE IS USUALLY TOO
FAST TO ERODE THE WEDGE. EVEN IF THE WEDGE ERODES A BIT ON TUESDAY,
IT WILL LIKELY RESTRENGTHEN TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE ERODING ENTIRELY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
ALTHOUGH THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH WILL REMAIN IN THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK, THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN EXTENDED OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THIS
WILL LEAD TO LOW-LEVEL S/SW FLOW OVER THE REGION, ALLOWING FOR AN
INFLUX OF RICH GULF MOISTURE. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LOOK
TO RETURN TO THE FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY. DIURNAL CONVECTION
SHOULD REMAIN SCATTERED AT BEST ON BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, BUT
COVERAGE WILL INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND. SO, NBM POP TRENDS LOOK
GOOD FOR NOW.
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN WEDNESDAY, LINGERING THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK. HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 70S EACH AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS, WITH THE LOWER 80S POSSIBLE EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS (MAINLY ALONG/SOUTH OF I-85) EACH AFTERNOON ON BOTH FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. PER THE NBM THE PROBABILITY OF HIGHS EXCEEDING 79
DEGREES DURING THIS TIMEFRAME IN THESE LOCATIONS IS ROUGHLY 30-50
PERCENT.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE OVER OUR
AREA A BIT LONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY FCST. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE TONIGHT, WHILE A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES INTO OUR AREA
FROM THE NE LATER TONIGHT AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT. MVFR CIGS MOVE
IN BEHIND THE FRONT ALONG WITH GUSTY NE WINDS. MOST OF THE LATEST
GUIDANCE IS SLOWER TO SPREAD ANY LOWER CIGS OVER OUR AREA, SO I
HAVE PUSHED BACK THE ONSET OF ANY CIG RESTRICTIONS ABOUT 3 TO 4 HRS
FOR MOST TERMINALS. IN ADDITION, IT'S LOOKING LIKE CIGS WON'T DROP
TO IFR UNTIL AFTER 00Z TUES FOR MOST OF OUR TERMINALS. AT PRESENT,
I ONLY HAVE KHKY GOING IFR BEFORE 00Z TUES. PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE
FOR THE NC SITES MONDAY MORNING WITH INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT IN
THE STRENGTHENING CAD, WITH PROB30S FOR -RA AND LOWER VISIBILITIES
BEGINNING AROUND 14Z AND CONTINUING THRU MUCH OF THE DAY. OUTSIDE
OF THE MTNS, WINDS WILL START OUT SWLY AND THEN TOGGLE AROUND TO
NELY AS THE BACKDOOR FRONT MOVES THRU. MOST SITES WILL ALSO SEE
SOME LOW-END GUSTS OVERNIGHT AND THRU THE MORNING WITH GUSTS TAPER-
ING OFF LATER IN THE DAY. AT KAVL, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GO LIGHT
AND VRB TONIGHT AND THEN FAVOR A SLY TO SELY DIRECTION BEGINNING
OVERNIGHT. THEY SHOULD REMAIN S TO SE THRU THE REST OF THE TAF
PERIOD WITH SPEEDS BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KTS.
OUTLOOK: COLD AIR DAMMING CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY. RAIN CHANCES
DIMINISH BUT RESTRICTIONS WILL LIKELY LINGER. VFR IS EXPECTED TO
RETURN ON WEDNESDAY, WHILE ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY BRING SHOWERS
AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
AR/JPT/RWH
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