665  
FXUS62 KGSP 190742  
AFDGSP  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC  
342 AM EDT THU SEP 19 2019  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
COOL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA  
TODAY, AND THEN LINGER WELL INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW  
TEMPERATURES TO GRADUALLY WARM AGAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO  
EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
 
 
AS OF 340 AM EDT THURSDAY: WITH CURRENT TEMPERATURES IN THE MID  
TO UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S, THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST HAS BEEN A  
TRICKY ONE THIS MORNING, AS SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS  
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER PREVAILING ACROSS MOST OF THE FA, WITH  
THE EXCEPTION OF AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-77 CORRIDOR,  
WHERE CLOUDS HAVE SCATTERED OUT. AS A RESULT, MIN TEMPERATURES  
THIS MORNING WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.  
 
ASIDE FROM PATCHY AREAS OF MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG THIS MORNING, DRY AND  
QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT, AS COOL, SFC HIGH  
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO WEDGE DOWN IN PLACE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. WITH  
LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, CLOUDS  
WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE IN OPACITY THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY AS DRIER  
AIR INFILTRATES INTO THE AREA. MAX TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL  
CAP OFF AT OR JUST BELOW NORMAL.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
 
 
AS OF 300 AM EDT THURSDAY: VERY QUIET SHORT TERM FORECAST WITH  
UPPER RIDGING IN PLACE STRETCHING FROM THE GULF COAST TO THE GREAT  
LAKES, THE REMNANTS OF HUMBERTO UNDERGOING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION  
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST, AND AN UPPER SYSTEM WORKING ACROSS THE  
NORTHERN ROCKIES AS WELL. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE SOUTH  
FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC TOWARD THE CAROLINAS UNDER THE CONFLUENT NW  
FLOW ALOFT, MODERATING AS IT DOES SO. INCREASING THICKNESSES THROUGH  
THE PERIOD PLUS INCREASING LOW-LEVEL WAA WILL LEAD TO A NOTICEABLE  
WARM-UP FRIDAY, WITH HIGHS STILL A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL, INTO  
SATURDAY, WITH HIGHS RISING A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. DRY  
THROUGH THE PERIOD.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
AS OF 315 AM EDT THURSDAY: THE ROCKIES UPPER SYSTEM WILL PUSH EAST  
INTO THE PLAINS, SERVING TO DEAMPLIFY THE UPPER RIDGING AND SHOVING  
IT BACK SOUTH. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SLIDE OFF THE NC COAST, WITH  
CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL WAA. NO REMARKABLE PATTERN CHANGE THROUGH THE  
PERIOD AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WARM LATE IN THE WEEKEND  
INTO NEXT WEEK, SORT OF LEVELING OUT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH  
HIGHS 8-10 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS, WITH UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S  
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT (JUST LOVELY). THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE  
FORMER ROCKIES SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE APPALACHIANS LATE MONDAY AND  
COULD BRING SOME LOW-END POPS TO THE MOUNTAINS ADJACENT TO THE TN  
STATE LINE, BUT MOST OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE HAS ANYTHING OF NOTE  
FALLING APART. THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO LAY OUT ACROSS THE AREA AND  
DISSIPATE AS A CUTOFF LOW FORMS OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND  
INTERMITTENT SOUTHERN STREAM WAVES EJECT FROM IT INTO THE PLAINS.  
STILL NOTHING OF NOTE PROGGED TO REACH OUR AREA THROUGH THE END OF  
THE PERIOD, SO WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THOSE LOW-END POPS IN THE  
MOUNTAINS, CONTINUED DRY.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MVFR CIGS AND  
PATCHY AREAS OF FOG ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING, INCLUDING THE  
POSSIBILITY OF MVFR/MARGINAL IFR AT KAVL THROUGH DAYBREAK, VFR  
PREVAILS AT ALL TAF SITES WITH LIGHT WINDS. EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO  
SCT/BKN VFR CIGS AT ALL TAF SITES LATER THIS AFTERNOON, WITH CLOUDS  
GRADUALLY SCATTERING OUT THIS EVENING. NE WINDS AOB 10 KTS WILL  
PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SE AT KAVL.  
 
OUTLOOK: PATCHY MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG WILL POSSIBLE EACH MORNING.  
OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.  
 
CONFIDENCE TABLE...  
 
07-13Z 13-19Z 19-01Z 01-06Z  
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%  
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%  
KAVL MED 77% HIGH 91% HIGH 100% HIGH 96%  
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%  
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%  
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%  
 
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING  
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY  
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS  
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK:  
 
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION  
 

 
   
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
GA...NONE.  
NC...NONE.  
SC...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...TDP  
NEAR TERM...SGL  
SHORT TERM...TDP  
LONG TERM...TDP  
AVIATION...SGL  
 
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