810
FXUS62 KGSP 301758
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
158 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO FORECAST THINKING FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.
KEY MESSAGES
1. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND. STARTING
TUESDAY, CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOONS.
2. COLD FRONT APPEARS LIKELY TO CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY OR SUNDAY
NIGHT, OFFERING THE BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL BETWEEN
NOW AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES PERSIST INTO THE
WEEKEND. STARTING TUESDAY, CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOONS.
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS STARTS OUT QUASI-ZONAL TODAY,
WITH A VERY BROAD LOW-AMPLITUDE RIDGE ATOP MOST AREAS EAST OF
THE ROCKIES. THE MIDLATITUDE WAVE TRAIN WILL RIDE ATOP THIS
RIDGE AND THUS BE KEPT WELL TO OUR NORTH, ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND NORTHEAST. BERMUDA HIGH EXTENDS INLAND OVER THE SOUTHEAST
STATES. OVER THE COURSE OF THE WEEK, THE PATTERN GRADUALLY
AMPLIFIES.
MID- TO LATE-SPRING LIKE SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL
MORE DAYS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PROMOTE MOISTURE RETURN SUCH THAT
HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN HIGHER THROUGH THE AFTERNOONS AS COMPARED TO
THIS PAST WEEKEND. THIS SHOULD HELP MITIGATE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
TO SOME DEGREE, THOUGH FUEL MOISTURE IS NOT LIKELY TO REBOUND
SIGNIFICANTLY UNTIL RAIN OCCURS. BURN BANS REMAIN IN EFFECT AS OF
MONDAY. THE BETTER MOISTURE WILL PROMOTE DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION,
MAKING SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND BEYOND. AS USUAL IN THE
WARM SEASON, THE BEST DAILY CHANCES WILL BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
IN THE AFTERNOON. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED WITH CAPE VALUES
BEING KEPT RELATIVELY LOW BY MEDIOCRE LAPSE RATES, AND WITH WEAK
SHEAR UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE. MODEL QPF RESPONSE IS
SLIGHTLY BETTER WEDNESDAY THAN EITHER TUE OR THU, SEEMINGLY WITH
ENHANCED MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE FRONT STALLING IN THE OHIO
VALLEY AT THAT TIME. POPS FOLLOW THE SAME TREND. THE AMPLIFYING
PATTERN SUGGESTS THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BACK TOWARD THE SOUTH OR
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST LATE IN THE WEEK, SUGGESTING SLIGHTLY BETTER FETCH
OFF THE ATLANTIC THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY, INCREASING PWAT
AND BRINGING DAILY POPS SOMEWHAT HIGHER. NON-DIURNAL PRECIP ACTIVITY
LOOKS MORE PLAUSIBLE IN THAT TIMEFRAME AS THE SEA-BREEZE FRONT
IS MORE LIKELY TO REACH THE AREA. ALTOGETHER, NOT SEEING MUCH TO
SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AT ANY POINT THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH
WEAK FORCING SUGGESTING ONLY HIT-OR-MISS PRECIP. THE SOUTH-FACING
BLUE RIDGE ESCARPMENT WILL HOWEVER HAVE THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR
RECURRING SHOWERS THROUGH THE WEEK, AND SO LREF ENSEMBLE PROBS OF 1"
TOTAL RAIN THROUGH SATURDAY ARE HIGHEST THERE--THOUGH STILL LOW.
TEMPERATURES TREND WARMER THROUGH THURSDAY, BUT THEN HOLD STEADY OR
TREND A BIT COOLER DUE TO INCREASED MOISTURE ALOFT SUGGESTING MORE
CLOUD COVER. THEY HOWEVER REMAIN ON THE ORDER OF 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH SATURDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2: COLD FRONT APPEARS LIKELY TO CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY
OR SUNDAY NIGHT, OFFERING THE BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
BETWEEN NOW AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE AMPLIFYING PATTERN LATE THIS WEEK CULMINATES IN A POTENT
SHORTWAVE ADVANCING THRU THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY, WITH ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. THE MAJOR MODELS ALL DEPICT A COLD FRONT TRAILING THAT
LOW AND SWEEPING ACROSS OUR AREA. THERE REMAINS SPREAD ON TIMING,
BUT IT APPEARS LIKELY TO REACH THE TN/NC BORDER SUNDAY AFTERNOON,
IF NOT SUNDAY NIGHT. INSTABILITY PRECEDING THE FRONT IS SHOWN TO
BE LOW, WITH ENSEMBLES SUGGESTING CAPE IS NOT LIKELY TO PEAK ABOVE
500 J/KG. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE BETTER THAN AT ANY POINT IN THE
PRECEDING FEW DAYS, PERHAPS 30-40 KT. THE BEST OVERLAP OF CAPE AND
SHEAR WOULD BE IN OUR EASTERN CWA BASED ON CURRENT MODEL PROGS,
BUT NOT YET SEEING A STRONG OVERALL SIGNAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL OWING TO THE MEAGER INSTABILITY AND BROAD NATURE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH. WHILE A NARROW BAND OF 1.5" PWAT APPEARS LIKELY TO
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT, ENSEMBLE PROBS OF 1" OR MORE RAINFALL IN 24
HOURS ARE LOW AROUND THE FROPA.
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN CLOSER TO NORMAL SUNDAY NIGHT AND/OR
MONDAY BEHIND THE FRONT, AND POSSIBLY EVEN BELOW NORMAL IN THE
SUBSEQUENT DAY OR TWO.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE LOW STRATUS DECK FROM EARLIER HAS SCATTERED
WITH STRATOCU DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA, BUT CIGS REMAIN VFR. SOUTH
TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS (5-10 KTS) WITH LOW-END GUSTS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING LATER THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. CONTINUED SCT TO BKN CLOUD COVER EXPECTED THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY. VFR STRATUS CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY WITH
A CHANCE FOR A ROGUE SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM TUESDAY AFTERNOON,
BUT SLIPS JUST OUTSIDE THE 18Z TAF PERIOD SO NO MENTION AT THIS
TIME. BEST CHANCE WILL BE IN KAVL.
OUTLOOK: DRY, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY, LEADING TO ELEVATED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITH ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
CAC/JCW
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