301
FXUS62 KGSP 031029
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
629 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED THE AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 12Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
1. DANGEROUS HEAT CONTINUES EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE
INDEPENDENCE DAY WEEKEND BEFORE THE HEAT GRADUALLY WANES NEXT
WEEK. THOSE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND SHOULD
PREPARE FOR ELEVATED HEAT RISK. STAY HYDRATED, TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS
IN AIR-CONDITIONED OR SHADED AREAS, AND NEVER LEAVE CHILDREN OR
PETS UNATTENDED IN VEHICLES.
2. DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY OVER
THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE INDEPENDENCE DAY WEEKEND BEFORE CHANCES
RETURN EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS NEXT WEEK. PER USUAL, A FEW STORMS
COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE DURING PEAK HEATING HOURS, WITH THE
MAIN HAZARD BEING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. MAKE SURE YOU HAVE MULTIPLE
WAYS TO RECEIVE WARNINGS, ESPECIALLY IF YOU HAVE OUTDOOR PLANS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: DANGEROUS HEAT CONTINUES EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH
THE INDEPENDENCE DAY WEEKEND BEFORE THE HEAT GRADUALLY WANES NEXT
WEEK. THOSE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND SHOULD
PREPARE FOR ELEVATED HEAT RISK. STAY HYDRATED, TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS
IN AIR-CONDITIONED OR SHADED AREAS, AND NEVER LEAVE CHILDREN OR PETS
UNATTENDED IN VEHICLES.
THE HOT UPPER ANTICYCLONE REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHEAST TODAY. ALTHOUGH
THE ANTICYLCONE WILL BREAK DOWN TONIGHT, UPPER RIDGING WILL REMAIN
OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE INDEPENDENCE DAY WEEKEND KEEPING
DANGEROUSLY HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS AROUND EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS.
BETTER DAYTIME MIXING IS EXPECTED OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WHICH
SHOULD ALLOW FOR LOWER DEWPOINTS EACH AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH LOWER DEWPOINTS COULD PREVENT SOME
LOCATIONS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS FROM REACHING HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, WITH SIMILAR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AND WITH THE ANTICYLCONE STILL IN FULL FORCE
OVERHEAD, OPTED TO EXPAND THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR TODAY TO ALL
LOCATIONS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. DESPITE EVEN LOWER DEWPOINTS
EXPECTED ON SATURDAY DUE TO THE UPPER ANTICYCLONE BREAKING DOWN, AN
"IMPACT-BASED" HEAT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR SOME, IF NOT
ALL, LOCATIONS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS ON INDEPENDENCE DAY. OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES COMBINED WITH MULTIPLE DAYS OF DANGEROUSLY HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS CAUSE STRAIN ON THE BODY, ESPECIALLY THOSE WHO ARE MORE
VULNERABLE TO THE HEAT. HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL LINGER THROUGH
SUNDAY BUT WITH HIGHS ENDING UP A FEW DEGREES COOLER AND LOWER
DEWPOINTS EXPECTED, CONFIDENCE IS LOWER ON ANY "IMPACT-BASED" HEAT
ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.
ALTHOUGH THE HEAT FINALLY STARTS TO WANE NEXT WEEK AS WEAK UPPER
TROUGHING DEVELOPS OVER THE EAST COAST, IT WILL STILL BE HOT AND
HUMID EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID
90S EACH DAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2: DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY
OVER THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE INDEPENDENCE DAY WEEKEND BEFORE
CHANCES RETURN EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS NEXT WEEK. PER USUAL, A FEW
STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE DURING PEAK HEATING HOURS, WITH
THE MAIN HAZARD BEING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. MAKE SURE YOU HAVE
MULTIPLE WAYS TO RECEIVE WARNINGS, ESPECIALLY IF YOU HAVE OUTDOOR
PLANS.
DIURNAL CONVECTION SHOULD GENERALLY BE CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS
THROUGH THE INDEPENDENCE DAY WEEKEND. HOWEVER, CANNOT ENTIRELY RULE
OUT SOME CONVECTION DEVELOPING EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS EACH
AFTERNOON/EVENING PER A FEW OF THE 06Z CAMS (AND PER THE CONVECTIVE
TRENDS THE LAST FEW DAYS) BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. BETTER DIURNAL
CONVECTIVE CHANCES RETURN EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS
WEAK UPPER TROUGHING DEVELOPS ACROSS THE EAST COAST BUT CHANCES WILL
REMAIN HIGHEST OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A
FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THROUGH NEXT WEEK (IT IS PULSE SEVERE SEASON AFTER ALL). ALTHOUGH
DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE WEAK, AS IT USUALLY IS THIS TIME OF YEAR,
DECENT INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP DURING PEAK HEATING EACH DAY THROUGH
NEXT WEEK THANKS TO HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS LINGERING OVER THE
REGION. THUS, ANY SEVERE STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS FROM MICROBURSTS.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: MOSTLY DRY AND VFR THROUGH THE 12Z TAF PERIOD
OUTSIDE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY,
MAINLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. MAINTAINED THE PROB30 FOR TSRA AT KAVL
THIS TAF CYCLE BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON WHETHER ACTIVITY WILL
DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF THE TERMINAL, LET ALONE RIGHT OVER THE
TERMINAL. CANNOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT CONFIDENCE IS
TOO LOW TO MENTION AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY CALM TO LIGHT
AND VRB THROUGHOUT THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS MOST TERMINALS, PICKING
UP OUT OF THE SE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. KCLT HAS ALREADY SEEN WINDS
PICK UP OUT OF THE S. WINDS SHOULD TURN MORE SE AT KCLT THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD ONCE AGAIN GO CALM TO LIGHT AND VRB LATE
THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. A FEW CIRRUS WILL CONTINUE TRACKING
OVERHEAD AT TIMES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH SOME CUMULUS
DEVELOPING DURING PEAK HEATING HOURS TODAY.
OUTLOOK: DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE,
MAINLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS, THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. BETTER
RAIN CHANCES RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE TERMINALS. MOUNTAIN
VALLEY FOG AND LOW STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH MORNING.
CLIMATE
RECORDS FOR 07-03
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 93 1970 65 1988 70 2018 50 2008
1897 1931 1937
1932
KCLT 99 1931 70 1988 76 1925 56 2010
KGSP 99 2016 70 1988 77 1925 56 1984
1970
1953
RECORDS FOR 07-04
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 97 1948 68 1976 70 2016 51 1986
KCLT 99 1993 70 1968 76 1993 55 1933
1955
KGSP 100 1993 70 1988 75 2018 58 2021
1996
1933
RECORDS FOR 07-05
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 96 1948 71 1976 70 2024 46 1967
2018 1933
KCLT 101 2024 66 1892 78 2024 57 1967
KGSP 101 2024 70 1976 78 2016 58 1967
1933
1892
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
GAZ018-026-028-029.
NC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-502-504-506-508-510.
SC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
SCZ008>014-019-104>109.
AR
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