417
FXUS62 KGSP 281048
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
648 AM EDT SUN JUN 28 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED THE AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 12Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
1. A FEW SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.
2. HEAT RISK WILL STEADILY INCREASE THROUGH NEXT WEEK, WITH HEAT
INDICES POTENTIALLY EXCEEDING 100 DEGREES ACROSS MUCH OF THE
PIEDMONT AND FOOTHILLS, ESPECIALLY BY MID TO LATE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: A FEW SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.
DEEPENING UPPER/MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE MID/LOWER MS
VALLEY WILL HELP SET THE STAGE FOR POTENTIAL CONVECTION THIS MORNING
AND AFTERNOON. AN ONGOING MCV HAS MOVED INTO THE MOUNTAINS, MAINLY
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE TN BORDER WITH MOSTLY SHOWERS ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS, FOOTHILLS, AND NORTH OF I-40. CAMS CONTINUE TO SHOWCASE A
REMNANT OUTFLOW FROM THIS FEATURE THAT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
SOUTHEAST AND INITIATE CONVECTION DOWNSTREAM INTO THE FOOTHILLS AND
PIEDMONT, BUT TIMING AND LOCATION IS STILL RELATIVELY VARIABLE. LOW-
LEVEL SHEAR AND LAPSE RATES ARE WEAKER COMPARED TO YESTERDAY, SO ANY
STORM CLUSTERING OR ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL BE LIMITED AND THUS,
KEEPING THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT LOW. HOWEVER, IF CONVECTION CAN
INITIATE INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, THE CONVECTION CAN
TAP INTO BETTER INSTABILITY, WHICH WILL UPTICK THE SEVERE THREAT
WITH THE PRIMARY HAZARD BEING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. POPS PEAK AT
LIKELY/CATEGORICAL OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING AND FALL OFF TO
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWFA LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON.
WITH CONVECTIVE DEBRIS SET TO MOVE ACROSS THE CWFA EARLIER THAN A
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME DIURNAL SETUP, EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE NEAR-
NORMAL FOR LATE JUNE OUTSIDE OF THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA.
DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S AND WITH THE DELAYED
ONSET OF CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER, THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY FOR TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S, WITH
HEAT INDICES APPROACHING TRIPLE DIGITS FOR A FEW HOURS DURING PEAK
HEATING.
KEY MESSAGE 2: HEAT RISK WILL STEADILY INCREASE THROUGH NEXT WEEK,
WITH HEAT INDICES POTENTIALLY EXCEEDING 100 DEGREES ACROSS MUCH
OF THE PIEDMONT AND FOOTHILLS, ESPECIALLY BY MID TO LATE WEEK.
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS NEXT
WEEK, BRINGING A STEADY WARMING TREND AND SUPPRESSING CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER TO
MID 90S EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS BY MIDWEEK, WITH VALUES RUNNING 5-10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY LATE WEEK AND THE INDEPENDENCE DAY HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.
HEAT INDEX VALUES MAY APPROACH OR EXCEED 100 DEGREES STARTING MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH POSSIBLE HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA BY THURSDAY
INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. CONFIDENCE IN EXACT HEAT VALUES REMAINS
SOMEWHAT LIMITED DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS
POTENTIALLY MIXING OUT WITH NOTABLE SUBSIDENCE IN THE VERTICAL
COLUMN. WITH THE RIDGE IN PLACE, CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL BE REDUCED
AS MOST ACTIVITY BECOMES ISOLATED AND STAYS MOSTLY CONFINED TO
MOUNTAINS DURING EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CURRENT GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN CAUSING THE POTENTIAL PROLONGED HEAT
COULD PERSIST THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH LITTLE INDICATION OF
SIGNIFICANT RELIEF.
THOSE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS, INCLUDING HOLIDAY AND RECREATION, SHOULD
PREPARE FOR SEVERAL DAYS OF ELEVATED HEAT RISK. STAY HYDRATED, TAKE
FREQUENT BREAKS IN AIR-CONDITIONED OR SHADED AREAS, AND NEVER LEAVE
CHILDREN OR PETS UNATTENDED IN VEHICLES.
AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: SOME INSTANCES OF MVFR/IFR FOG AND
LIFR/VLIFR CIGS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA AND HAS MOVED INTO
KHKY. INCLUDED AN MVFR VSBY MENTION AT KCLT DUE TO THE VICINITY
OBSERVATIONS OF FOG, WITH A TEMPO FOR LIFR/IFR AT KHKY THROUGH 13Z.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
THIS MORNING, SO PLACED A VCSH MENTION AT KAVL AND KHKY. THIS
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REST OF THE FOOTHILLS AND
PIEDMONT BY LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE OVERALL TIMING AND
LOCATION REMAINS VARIABLE, SO ONLY PLACED A PROB30 FOR TSRA AND
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS AT ALL TAF SITES. SOUTHWESTERLY TO WEST-
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON,
WITH SOME LOW-END GUSTS POSSIBLE DURING PEAK HEATING. FOLLOWING THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, THE WIND DIRECTION IS
EXPECTED TO TOGGLE MORE WEST-NORTHWESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND
THE ACTIVITY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LINGERING CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS WILL KEEP MID-LEVEL CLOUDS IN PLACE, BUT SHOULD SCATTER OUT
OVERNIGHT. DEPENDING ON HOW FAST THE CLOUD COVER DISPERSES
OVERNIGHT, FOG AND LOW STRATUS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
AREA AND POSSIBLY IMPACT THE TERMINALS BY DAYBREAK MONDAY.
OUTLOOK: DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS NEXT WEEK. MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG/LOW STRATUS
WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH MORNING.
CLIMATE
RECORDS FOR 07-02
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 93 1970 65 1943 70 2018 44 1988
1954
1931
KCLT 101 1931 64 1943 76 1991 56 2008
1970
1931
KGSP 101 1954 66 1943 77 1931 53 1899
RECORDS FOR 07-03
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 93 1970 65 1988 70 2018 50 2008
1897 1931 1937
1932
KCLT 99 1931 70 1988 76 1925 56 2010
KGSP 99 2016 70 1988 77 1925 56 1984
1970
1953
RECORDS FOR 07-04
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 97 1948 68 1976 70 2016 51 1986
KCLT 99 1993 70 1968 76 1993 55 1933
1955
KGSP 100 1993 70 1988 75 2018 58 2021
1996
1933
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
CAC
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