090
FXUS62 KGSP 160001
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
801 PM EDT WED JUL 15 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ANOTHER AQA WAS ISSUED FOR MECKLENBURG COUNTY FOR THURSDAY FROM 10
AM TO 8 PM.
LOWERED THUNDER CHANCES THROUGH TOMORROW AS THE NBM IS RUNNING TOO
HIGH.
UPDATED THE AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
1. HOT CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO THE AREA TOMORROW AND CONTINUE
INTO THE WEEKEND. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL RETURN INTO THE 100 TO
105 DEGREE RANGE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
2. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH AND BRING HIGHER
RAIN CHANCES OVER THE WEEKEND, AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: HOT CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO THE AREA TOMORROW AND
CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL RETURN INTO THE
100 TO 105 DEGREE RANGE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER MOST OF THE COUNTRY OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS, THOUGH WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN LATE IN
THE THE WEEKEND. WITH THE HEIGHT RISES COMBINED WITH THE SOUPY
AIRMASS, TEMPERATURES (AND ASSOCIATED RH) WILL REBOUND TOMORROW TO
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, AND A 5-8 DEGREE INCREASE OVER THIS
AFTERNOON'S FORECAST HIGHS. NBM DEWPOINTS SEEM JUST A TAD HIGH GIVEN
THE DEEP MIXING TO 700MB DURING PEAK HEATING, SO HAVE BLENDED IN
SLIGHTLY LOWER DEWPOINTS THURSDAY AFTERNOON TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
NEVERTHELESS, RESULTING HEAT INDEX VALUES RISE TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE 100 FRIDAY AFTERNOON, AND THE CURRENT FORECAST IS EVEN HIGHER
OVER THE WEEKEND. HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE AS WE
MOVE CLOSER TO THE WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY IN THE LAKELANDS AND THE
CHARLOTTE METRO AREA, BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW GIVEN MODEL
HANDLING OF THE MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER. CANNOT RULE OUT STANDARD
DIURNAL CONVECTION ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SW MOUNTAINS AND TN BORDER,
AND WITH THE INCREASING HEAT INSTABILITY MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED PULSE
SEVERE.
KEY MESSAGE 2: A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH AND BRING
HIGHER RAIN CHANCES OVER THE WEEKEND, AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE MOIST SURFACE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE, AND BY LATE SATURDAY
A SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND DIVE DOWN
TOWARD THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. MEANWHILE, THE ECMWF ESPECIALLY IS
DEVELOPING A WEAKNESS IN THE EASTERN GULF, NOTED ON THE NHC TROPICAL
OUTLOOK. THE SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH THE UPPER HIGH TOWARD THE WEST,
OVER THE ROCKIES, ALLOWING THE UPPER TROUGH TO DIG AND BRING A
SURFACE FRONT TOWARD THE REGION. TIMING OF THIS FRONT VS THE GULF
LOW MAY PROVIDE ADDITIONAL MOISTURE OVER THE AREA, OR THE FRONT MAY
PUSH THROUGH BEFORE THE GULF MOISTURE IS ABLE TO PUSH THIS FAR
NORTH, SO CONFIDENCE IN THE EXACT SENSIBLE WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS
LOW. IN THE CURRENT FORECAST, THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE AREA
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH INTERMITTENT SHORTWAVES PUSHING
THROUGH, WITH ENHANCED DIURNAL POPS FOR LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND THEN
SETTLING BACK INTO A MORE STANDARD PATTERN ASSUMING THE BEST
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF LOW REMAINS TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST.
TEMPERATURES BY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY DROP BACK TOWARDS SEASONAL
NORMALS WITH CURRENTLY JUST A SLIGHT UPTICK TOWARDS THE END OF THE
PERIOD.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG AND/OR STRATUS MAY
DEVELOP AGAIN OVERNIGHT AT KAVL SO WENT WITH A TEMPO FOR IFR VSBY
AND SCT LIFR STRATUS. OTHERWISE, DRY AND VFR THROUGH THE 00Z TAF
PERIOD. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHRA/TSRA
SHOULD DEVELOP THURSDAY BUT SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY WEST OF I-26. THUS,
MAINTAINED DRY CONDITIONS THIS TAF CYCLE AS CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW ON
WHETHER KAND OR KAVL WILL SEE SHRA/TSRA DEVELOP OVERHEAD. WINDS WILL
BE MOSTLY CALM TO LIGHT AND VRB THROUGH THE PERIOD. KAVL SHOULD SEE
NW/NNW WINDS AT TIMES WHILE MOST TERMINALS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS
SHOULD SEE W/WSW WINDS AT TIMES. HOWEVER, KCLT SHOULD SEE WINDS GO
W/WNW AROUND DAYBREAK THURSDAY BEFORE TOGGLING MORE W/WSW THURSDAY
EVENING. KHKY COULD SEE WINDS BRIEFLY GO WNW OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. CUMULUS SHOULD GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AROUND/SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET THIS EVENING WITH CUMULUS RETURNING AGAIN THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. SOME CIRRUS MAY STREAM ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
AS WELL ON THURSDAY, MAINLY DURING AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
OUTLOOK: COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON/EVENING SHRA/TSRA WILL INCREASE
FRIDAY BUT CHANCES APPEAR TO BE BEST ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. EVEN
BETTER COVERAGE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING SHRA/TSRA IS EXPECTED
THIS WEEKEND. LOW STRATUS AND/OR FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH MORNING,
MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
AR/TDP
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