593  
FXUS62 KGSP 162350  
AFDGSP  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC  
750 PM EDT TUE JUL 16 2019  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE INTO THE UPCOMING  
WEEKEND. MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE BARRY WILL  
OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD, INCREASING THE COVERAGE  
OF DAILY SHOWERS AND STORMS.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
AS OF 725 PM EDT TUESDAY: ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN OVER THE  
MTNS, AS EXPECTED, SO FEW CHANGES ARE NEEDED TO THE FCST. TEMP/DEWPT  
TRENDS ALSO LOOK DECENT. SHOULD BE A QUIET EVENING AND INTO THE  
EARLY MORNING HOURS.  
 
OTHERWISE, A MID-LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO HOLD OVER THE AREA,  
BUT IS EXPECTED TO GET SHOVED EASTWARD AS REMNANTS OF BARRY,  
NOW A OPEN SYNOPTIC WAVE, PROGRESSES NORTHEASTWARD JUST WEST  
OF THE APPALACHIANS. A SURFACE HIGH IS REPLACED BY A TROUGH BY  
WEDNESDAY MORNING JUST EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. THIS TROUGH WILL  
PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  
WINDS AT 850MB INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY, ALLOWING SOME GUSTS TO  
15 OR 20 MPH WITH SOME MIXING. THE SURFACE TROUGH THAT FORMS  
EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS AHEAD OF THE BARRY REMNANT DOES LITTLE  
TO ALTER THE MOISTURE OR THERMAL PROFILE, AND WILL KEEP WARM,  
MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER MOST OF THE AREA, WITH HIGH AND LOW  
TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO RUN 5 OR SO DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
AS OF 1230 PM TUESDAY: DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORKWEEK, THE  
SYNOPTIC PATTERN PROGGED TO BE ATOP THE SE CONUS WILL FEATURE A  
BROADLY CONVERGENT LLVL FLOW AND WEAK UPPER TROUGHING WHICH FILLS BY  
THE WEEKEND. IN COMBINATION WITH LINGERING TROPICAL MOISTURE, PWAT  
VALUES AT OR ABOVE 2 INCHES, THE COVERAGE OF DIURNALLY ENHANCED DEEP  
CONVECTION SHOULD BECOME NUMEROUS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND SCATTERED IN  
THE PIEDMONT. THERE IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED EXCESSIVE  
RAINFALL EACH DAY. THE BUBBLE OF GREATER THAN 20C 85H TEMPS ACRS THE  
PIEDMONT ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE DISPLACED TO THE COAST ON THURSDAY,  
KNOCKING APPARENT TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN INTO THE UPPER 90S. THE  
HOTTER AIRMASS REASSERTS ITSELF ON FRIDAY LEADING TO PIEDMONT  
APPARENT TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 100S.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
 
 
AS OF 130 PM TUESDAY: THE WEATHER PATTERN ATOP THE REGION FOR THE  
WEEKEND IS SHAPING UP TO BE PRETTY TYPICAL FOR MID-JULY, BROAD LLVL  
CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND BERMUDA HIPRES AND A WEAK FLOW REGIME ALOFT.  
MEAN MOISTURE THOUGH IS PROGGED TO BE ABOVE CLIMO LEADING TO  
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS DIURNALLY ENHANCED TSTMS EACH DAY. THERE LOOKS  
TO BE LITTLE CHANGE IN THE ORIENTATION AND MAGNITUDE OF BLYR HOT AIR  
AND DWPTS, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR APPARENT TEMPERATURES RISING INTO  
THE LOWER 100S IN THE PIEDMONT EACH AFTERNOON. THE EXTENDED RANGE  
MODEL CONSENSUS IS AMPLIFYING THE PATTERN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK,  
DEVELOPING A BROAD TROUGH ACRS THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS PATTERN  
CHANGE SHOULD AID MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES DROPPING BACK TO NEAR CLIMO  
BY DAY 7.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
 
 
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: LOOKS LIKE THE ISOLATED DEEP CONVECTION WILL  
AVOID ANY OF THE TAF SITES THIS EVENING, SO VFR CONDITIONS ARE  
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AT ALL SITES NOT NAMED KAVL. ANOTHER  
THUNDERSTORM MOVED NEAR KAVL LATE TODAY, SO THAT ONCE AGAIN RAISES  
THE CHANCES OF A FOG/LOW STRATUS RESTRICTION AFTER MIDNIGHT. FOR  
THE TIME BEING, THIS WAS HANDLED WITH A PREVAILING MVFR VISIBILITY  
RESTRICTION, BUT THIS COULD EASILY BE LIFR LIKE THIS PAST  
MORNING. THE RESTRICTIONS, IF THEY DEVELOP IN THE MTN VALLEYS  
SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 13Z. WIND WILL BE LIGHT SW OR LIGHT/VARIABLE  
OVERNIGHT. ON WEDNESDAY, PRECIP CHANCES GO UP ACROSS THE MTNS BUT  
STILL LOOK PALTRY OUTSIDE THE MTNS, SO ONLY KAVL GETS THE AFTERNOON  
PROB30. THIS MIGHT NEED TO BE RAISED TO A TEMPO IN FUTURE ISSUANCES  
IF WE CAN NAIL DOWN THE MOST LIKELY TIME THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL  
MOVE NEAR THE SITE. THE OTHER WRINKLE FOR TOMORROW WILL BE THE  
WINDSPEED, AS STRONGER WINDS ALOFT MIX DOWN IN THE AFTERNOON AT  
ALL SITES. THUS, ALL TERMINALS OUTSIDE THE MTNS GET WIND GUSTS  
FROM THE SW IN THE AFTERNOON.  
 
OUTLOOK: TYPICAL SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED THROUGH  
THE WEEK, ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. PATCHY MOUNTAIN VALLEY  
FOG AND LOW CIGS REMAIN POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY  
MORNING HOURS.  
 
CONFIDENCE TABLE...  
 
23-05Z 05-11Z 11-17Z 17-18Z  
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%  
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%  
KAVL HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%  
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%  
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%  
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%  
 
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING  
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY  
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS  
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK:  
 
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION  
 

 
   
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
GA...NONE.  
NC...NONE.  
SC...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...CSH  
NEAR TERM...PM/WJM  
SHORT TERM...CSH  
LONG TERM...CSH  
AVIATION...PM  
 
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