030
FXUS62 KGSP 172252
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
652 PM EDT SAT OCT 17 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED THE AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
1. IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT, TEMPERATURES WILL BE
MUCH COOLER ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MUCH OF THE NC
MOUNTAINS WILL DROP DOWN BELOW FREEZING TONIGHT AND WIDESPREAD
FROST IS EXPECTED IN EXTREME NORTHEAST GA, THE UPPER FRENCH BROAD
VALLEY, AND THE NC FOOTHILLS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT, TEMPERATURES WILL
BE MUCH COOLER ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MUCH OF THE
NC MOUNTAINS WILL DROP DOWN BELOW FREEZING TONIGHT AND WIDESPREAD
FROST IS EXPECTED IN EXTREME NORTHEAST GA, THE UPPER FRENCH BROAD
VALLEY, AND THE NC FOOTHILLS.
THE SEASON SHIFTING COLD FRONT IS NOW WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE
AREA AS WE ENTER THE FIRST TRUE POST-FRONTAL REGIME OF THE
SEASON. STRONG CONTINENTAL SURFACE HIGH (1030+ MB) MOVES INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN CONUS TONIGHT AND REMAINS LOCKED IN THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WEEKEND. A DEVELOPING NOR'EASTER OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST KEEPS A RELATIVELY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION,
ALLOWING FOR STEADY LOW-END GUSTY WINDS TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
SUNDAY. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUT BY TONIGHT, SO RADIATIONAL
COOLING SHOULD BE EFFECTIVE ENOUGH TO ALLOW THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
TO SLIP AT OR BELOW FREEZING FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. SHELTERED VALLEYS
AND REGIONS AWAY FROM THE THERMAL BELT WILL BE IN A GOOD POSITION
FOR FROST TO DEVELOP BEFORE DAYBREAK SUNDAY. DECIDED TO KEEP THE
CURRENT FREEZE WARNINGS AND FROST ADVISORIES FOR TONIGHT IN THEIR
CURRENT STATE AS TEMPERATURES HOLD STEADY COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. ANOTHER ROUND OF GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING IS EXPECTED
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT, SO ADDITIONAL ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED DEPENDING
ON HOW TONIGHT TURNS OUT.
AFTER THIS WEEKEND, THE UPPER PATTERN REMAINS RELATIVELY THE
SAME AS AN UPPER LOW CLOSES OFFSHORE THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND A
MID/UPPER ANTICYCLONE CHURNS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE UPPER
LOW IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE OFFSHORE THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS THROUGH
MIDWEEK. SURFACE HIGH WEAKENS LATER SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK,
HELPING TO RELAX THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND ALLOWS ANY LINGERING
GUSTS TO MOSTLY SUBSIDE. GRADUAL AIR MASS MODIFICATION ALLOWS FOR
TEMPERATURES TO UPTICK EACH AFTERNOON AFTER SUNDAY AS TEMPERATURES
RETURN TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY THE SECOND HALF OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS
IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. LOW FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS
CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO WITH LOW-END GUSTS
CONTINUING FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR SO AS WELL. GUSTS SHOULD SUBSIDE
OVERNIGHT BEFORE RETURNING AGAIN THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY AS WINDS
REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH.
OUTLOOK: DRY, VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF NEXT
WEEK. MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG AND LOW STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH
MORNING.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR GAZ010-017.
NC...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR NCZ035-064-065-
501>507-509.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR NCZ033-048>053-
058-059-062-063.
SC...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR SCZ101>103.
CAC/TW
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