784
FXUS62 KGSP 201735
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
135 PM EDT FRI MAR 20 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAS ELEVATED CONFIDENCE FOR
SATURDAY, THOUGH STILL EXPECTING AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM OR TWO.
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR
SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY LOCATIONS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS.
KEY MESSAGES
1. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN SOME OF THE
AREA SATURDAY, WITH AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT. TEMPERATURES TREND
WARMER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
2. GENERALLY LOW-IMPACT WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE
TO END OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN SOME OF
THE AREA SATURDAY, WITH AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT. TEMPERATURES
TREND WARMER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
A STOUT RIDGE OUT WEST KEEPS THE SOUTHEAST IN A PERSISTENT NW UPPER
FLOW REGIME THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DOWNSTREAM OF THE RIDGE, A WEAK
SHORTWAVE APPEARS TO PASS OVER THE CWA SATURDAY, INCREASING SHOWER
ACTIVITY CHANCES. AT THIS TIME, GUIDANCE GIVES A SLIGHT CHANCE (15-
30%) FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE LATER AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. UPPER AIR GUIDANCE SHOWS A FAIR AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY
DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS OF 500-1000 J/KG, MEANING THERE IS
ENOUGH JUICE TO ENHANCE SOME CONVECTION. WITH THE SHORTWAVE COMING
THROUGH, IT COULD HELP TO INCREASE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. CONFIDENCE
IS TICKING UP A BIT WITH SEVERE CHANCES. THE PRIMARY THREAT LOOKS TO
BE HAIL AS STEEP LAPSE RATES COULD HELP TO ENHANCE STRONG UPDRAFTS,
LEADING TO LARGER HAIL. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS INCREASED
THE CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK FOR SATURDAY TO A MARGINAL (1/5) THREAT RISK.
WITH THAT SAID, AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OR TWO CANNOT BE
RULED OUT, PRIMARILY FOR HAIL. CAM GUIDANCE SHOWS THE MAIN AREA OF
CONCERN WOULD BE OVER UPSTATE SC, MAINLY EAST OF I-26 TO THE NC
PIEDMONT. THIS DOES INCLUDE THE CHARLOTTE AREA. ONCE THE SHORTWAVE
PASSES, RAIN CHANCES ONCE AGAIN DISAPPEAR INTO AT LEAST THE START OF
THE WEEK.
ADDITIONALLY, AS THE RIDGE OUT WEST WEAKENS, HEIGHT RISES DOWNSTREAM
ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO INCREASE WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. CURRENT GUIDANCE MAKES A RUN FOR RECORDS ON SUNDAY, AS THE
MID 80S ARE ON TAP, ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS.
KEY MESSAGE 2: GENERALLY LOW-IMPACT WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR
THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK.
MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-
CENTRAL STATES FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK. A COUPLE WEAK AND
MOISTURE STARVED SYSTEMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF
THIS RIDGE AND THEN ACROSS OUR AREA. A COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS WILL
IMPACT THE AREA MONDAY AND FRIDAY WITH A WIND SHIFT AND LOWER
TEMPERATURES, PARTICULARLY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A FEW
OPPORTUNITIES FOR LIGHT SHOWERS EXIST THROUGH THE WEEK, BUT AMOUNTS
AND IMPACT SHOULD BE VERY LOW.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: VFR CONTINUES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A FEW
HIGHER CIRRUS CLOUDS STREAM IN THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND EVENING FROM
THE NW. KEEPING CIGS SCT/FEW250 FOR ALL TERMINALS. STRONG UPPER
WINDS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS CREATE AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR LLWS AT
KAVL OVERNIGHT. THERE COULD BE BRIEF LLWS AT KHKY BUT CONFIDENCE IS
LOW. NO VSBY CONCERNS AT THIS TIME. LOW END GUSTS OF 15-20KTS
POSSIBLE ACROSS SITES EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS TODAY BEFORE DIMINISHING
AFTER 00Z. WINDS REMAIN SW THROUGH DAYBREAK, BEFORE BECOMING MORE
WNW/NW THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AT KCLT
SATURDAY AFTERNOON, BUT CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO WARRANT A PROB30 AT
THIS TIME.
OUTLOOK: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
BEFORE BRIEF RESTRICTIONS RETURN WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS TO START THE
WEEK.
CLIMATE
RECORDS FOR 03-21
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 82 1948 34 1960 58 1948 14 1965
1958
KCLT 87 1935 35 1914 65 1912 18 1965
KGSP 88 1907 43 1958 60 1948 18 1965
1906 1927 1906
1921
RECORDS FOR 03-22
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 86 1907 32 1915 58 1991 15 1965
KCLT 89 1907 38 1883 64 1948 24 1965
KGSP 85 1935 42 1985 62 1948 20 1906
1914
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
CP/SCW
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