927
FXUS62 KGSP 301042
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
642 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED THE AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 12Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
1. HEAT RISK WILL STEADILY INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEK, WITH HEAT
INDICES LIKELY EXCEEDING 100 DEGREES ACROSS MUCH OF THE PIEDMONT
AND FOOTHILLS, ESPECIALLY BY MID TO LATE WEEK. DAILY THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: HEAT RISK WILL STEADILY INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEK,
WITH HEAT INDICES LIKELY EXCEEDING 100 DEGREES ACROSS MUCH OF
THE PIEDMONT AND FOOTHILLS, ESPECIALLY BY MID TO LATE WEEK. DAILY
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.
DEEP ANTICYCLONE AND ASSOCIATED UPPER RIDGE OVER THE MS AND TN
VALLEYS WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE EASTWARD THROUGH THE WORKWEEK AND
SET UP SHOP OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC BY WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY, WHILE REMAINING IN PLACE THROUGH LATE WEEK. ANOMALOUSLY
WARM THICKNESSES WILL SUPPORT PROLONGED HEAT FROM MIDWEEK INTO
THE THE INDEPENDENCE DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND. EXPECT DAILY AFTERNOON
HIGHS TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, WITH
UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 FRIDAY INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S.
THE ONE CAVEAT INTO THE FORECAST WILL BE HOW HIGH HEAT INDICES
CAN POTENTIALLY REACH AND WHETHER OR NOT MULTIPLE DAYS OF HEAT
ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED. WITH DRIER AIR ALOFT AND VERY WELL
MIXED BOUNDARY LAYERS ON THE HOTTEST DAYS DURING THE FORECAST
PERIOD, DEWPOINTS LIKELY MIX OUT INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S AT PEAK
HEATING EACH DAY. DEWPOINTS PLAY A CRITICAL ROLE INTO HOW HIGH HEAT
INDICES CAN REACH AND THE CURRENT FORECAST SUGGESTS THAT VALUES
WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA, BUT CONDITIONS WILL STILL
POSE AN ELEVATED HEAT RISK, ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THAT MANY PEOPLE
WILL LIKELY BE OUTSIDE FOR THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THOSE
WITH OUTDOOR PLANS, INCLUDING HOLIDAY AND RECREATION, SHOULD
PREPARE FOR SEVERAL DAYS OF ELEVATED HEAT RISK. STAY HYDRATED,
TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS IN AIR-CONDITIONED OR SHADED AREAS, AND NEVER
LEAVE CHILDREN OR PETS UNATTENDED IN VEHICLES.
DAILY AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS STILL IN PLAY FOR THE MOUNTAINS WHERE
TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT WILL HELP TO INITIATE ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ONLY VERY ISOLATED CONVECTION
MAY SLIP EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS, BUT THE OVERALL EXPECTATION IS FOR
THIS ACTIVITY TO STAY MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS. THE UPPER
RIDGE SHOWS SIGNS OF GRADUALLY BREAKING DOWN LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK, WHICH WOULD SUPPORT A MORE CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE SETUP
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: DRY AND MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH LINGERING VFR STRATOCU OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. ANOTHER ROUND OF MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG/LOW STRATUS HAS
HIT KAVL WITH VLIFR CIGS AND IFR VSBY, SO HAVE A TEMPO WITH THESE
RESTRICTIONS THROUGH 13Z. ANY FOG AND LOW STRATUS THAT DEVELOPS WILL
DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK. SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND KEPT THE PROB30 FOR TSRA AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS FROM 20Z-24Z AT KAVL AS A RESULT, WHILE THE REST OF THE
TERMINALS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY WITH ONLY VFR AFTERNOON CU AND
SOME CONVECTIVE DEBRIS. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO FLOW OUT OF THE ENE/NE
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A SPORADIC TOGGLE OUT OF THE ESE AT TIMES AT
4-8 KTS. WINDS AT KAVL WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE NNW DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH SOME VARIABILITY. LINGERING VFR CLOUD COVER IS
POSSIBLE DURING THE EVENING AND ANOTHER ROUND OF MOUNTAIN VALLEY
FOG/LOW STRATUS CAN'T BE RULED OUT OVERNIGHT TONIGHT ONCE AGAIN.
OUTLOOK: DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE WORKWEEK. MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG/LOW
STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH MORNING.
CLIMATE
RECORDS FOR 07-02
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 93 1970 65 1943 70 2018 44 1988
1954
1931
KCLT 101 1931 64 1943 76 1991 56 2008
1970
1931
KGSP 101 1954 66 1943 77 1931 53 1899
RECORDS FOR 07-03
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 93 1970 65 1988 70 2018 50 2008
1897 1931 1937
1932
KCLT 99 1931 70 1988 76 1925 56 2010
KGSP 99 2016 70 1988 77 1925 56 1984
1970
1953
RECORDS FOR 07-04
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 97 1948 68 1976 70 2016 51 1986
KCLT 99 1993 70 1968 76 1993 55 1933
1955
KGSP 100 1993 70 1988 75 2018 58 2021
1996
1933
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
CAC
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page