822
FXUS62 KGSP 110746
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
346 AM EDT FRI OCT 11 2024
SYNOPSIS
COOL HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA TODAY, THEN WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY A WARMUP OVER THE WEEKEND. A STRONG, THOUGH MOSTLY DRY,
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OUR REGION ON MONDAY, USHERING IN MUCH COLDER
AIR AND COULD LEAD TO WIDESPREAD FROST AND FREEZE CONCERNS ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 335 AM: ABOUT AS QUIET AS IT EVER GETS IN THESE PARTS, WHICH
WAS NICE FOR AURORA BOREALIS VIEWING THIS PAST EVENING. TEMPS SEEM
TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE AND SKY WAS CLEAR, WITH LIGHT OR CALM WIND,
SO NO CHANGES. THE FROST ADVISORY WILL BE ALLOWED TO RUN ITS COURSE.
A FLATTENED UPPER RIDGE WILL HELP KEEP SFC HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED
OVER THE CENTRAL/SRN APPALACHIANS FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 24
HOURS. AFTER A COOL START THIS MORNING, TEMPS WILL WARM UP TO 3-5
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN SPITE OF FULL SUN, WITH LIGHT/VARIABLE WIND.
SHOULD BE ANOTHER PLEASANT EARLY AUTUMN DAY WITH LOW RH, BUT
NOT LOW ENOUGH FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. THE AIR MASS MODIFIES
A BIT THROUGH TONIGHT, SO LOW TEMPS DON'T LOOK QUITE AS COOL,
WHICH SHOULD LOWER THE RISK FOR FROST EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 200 AM EDT FRIDAY: THE CENTER OF COOL SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY THRU SUNDAY, AS DEEP-LAYER FLOW
BECOMES WESTERLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. THE DRY WESTERLY LOW-LEVEL
FLOW WILL HELP TEMPS WARM TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR HIGHS
SATURDAY UNDER SUNNY SKIES. FURTHER WARMING IS EXPECTED SUNDAY
WITH MARGINALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS IN THE AFTN AND CONTINUED SUNNY
SKIES. LOWS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL SUNDAY, THEN ABOVE-NORMAL
HIGHS, WHICH MAY GET INTO THE LOWER 80S ACROSS MOST OF THE I-85
CORRIDOR AND SOUTHEAST SUNDAY AFTN.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 230 AM EDT FRIDAY:
KEY MESSAGES:
1) A COLD FRONT BRINGS BREEZY CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
2) MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED STARTING MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY, WITH FROST AND FREEZE CONCERNS IN THE MOUNTAINS.
3) DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE ENTIRETY OF THE
LONG TERM
A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES LATE SUNDAY AND
CLOSE OFF INTO A DEEP UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC MONDAY. A LOBE
OF VORTICITY WILL ROTATE AROUND THE LOW ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND
REINFORCE A DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY. THE HEIGHT FALLS
ALOFT WILL ALLOW A STRONG COLD FRONT TO SWEEP THRU THE SOUTHEAST
SUNDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL HAVE LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH, BUT
MAY SQUEEZE OUT A FEW SHOWERS BEFORE DAYBREAK MONDAY ALONG THE TN
BORDER. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHC POP TO REFLECT THAT. THE FRONT WILL
ALSO USHER IN BREEZY CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS,
THANKS TO STRONG LOW-LEVEL CAA. GUSTS MAY BE IN THE 25-35 MPH
RANGE ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THRU MONDAY AFTN,
BUT EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 25 MPH IN THE PIEDMONT. DESPITE THE
CAA, HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL EAST OF
THE MOUNTAINS, THANKS TO DOWNSLOPE WARMING. HIGHS IN THE MOUNTAINS
WILL LIKELY BE EARLY IN THE AFTN AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
A STRONG CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR MASS WILL PUSH IN BEHIND THE FRONT
MONDAY NIGHT, BRINGING TEMPS DOWN BELOW NORMAL. LINGERING MIXING
AND NW FLOW CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT FROST POTENTIAL, BUT LOWS MAY DIP
INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S ABOVE 3500 FT. THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL
HAVE LOWS IN THE 40S. THE COLD AIR MASS REALLY SETTLES IN TUESDAY
THRU WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
LOWER TO MID 60S IN THE PIEDMONT DESPITE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BOTH
DAYS. LOW TEMPS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT ARE LIKELY TO
BE MID 30S OR COLDER BOTH NIGHTS. SO WIDESPREAD FROST AND/OR A
LIGHT FREEZE WILL BE POSSIBLE. EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS, IT LOOKS
LIKE TEMPS SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.
TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE THURSDAY, BUT STILL SEVERAL DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE AS THE CENTER OF THE
SFC HIGH SETTLES RIGHT OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: VFR/SKC THROUGH THE PERIOD AT ALL
TERMINALS. MOST LOCATIONS WILL KEEP A LIGHT/VARIABLE WIND THROUGH
THE PERIOD AS WELL, AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVERHEAD. THE AIR MASS
IS DRY ENOUGH THAT FOG IS UNLIKELY TO FORM EVEN IN THE MTN VALLEYS.
OUTLOOK: DRY CONDITIONS AND PREDOMINANTLY VFR SHOULD PERSIST THRU
THE WEEKEND. ANY FOG/LOW STRATUS LIKELY WILL BE CONFINED TO THE
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS OR NEAR BODIES OF WATER. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE AREA MONDAY BRINGING A WIND SHIFT AND GUSTY WINDS, WHICH MAY
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AS THE FRONT STALLS JUST TO OUR SOUTH.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ033-049-050.
SC...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...ARK
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...ARK
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...PM
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