010
FXUS62 KGSP 141039
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
639 AM EDT SAT MAR 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED FORECAST FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
1. DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. INCREASING CLOUDS AND SHOWER CHANCES ON SUNDAY.
2. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE MAIN HAZARDS BEING
DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. WE ARE ONLY A FEW DAYS
OUT, SO START PREPARING NOW. MAKE SURE YOU HAVE MULTIPLE WAYS
TO RECEIVE WARNINGS AND THINK ABOUT WHERE YOU WOULD SEEK SAFE
SHELTER IF A WARNING WAS ISSUED FOR YOUR LOCATION.
3. A BRIEF PERIOD OF NORTHWEST FLOW SNOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG
THE NC/TN BORDER BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON MONDAY, WITH LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE.
4. GUSTY WINDS DEVELOP AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE FINALLY TAPERING OFF TUESDAY
EVENING. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTH
CAROLINA MOUNTAINS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
5. A MUCH COLDER AND DRIER AIR MASS RETURNS BEHIND THE FRONT
MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH MOST AREAS SEEING LOWS
EACH NIGHT FALLING NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING. WARMER TEMPERATURES
RETURN BY LATE WEEK WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUING.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. INCREASING CLOUDS AND SHOWER CHANCES ON SUNDAY.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE AREA TODAY WITH MUCH LIGHTER WINDS
THAN THE PAST TWO DAYS. HIGHS INCREASE TO AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. MIXING DEW POINTS WILL DROP RH TOWARD THE 25% RANGE.
LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS DEVELOP TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO
SUNDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT WITH LOWS 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RAMPS UP ON SUNDAY IN THE
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE
INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT AND UPSLOPE FLOW. AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE AS WEAK INSTABILITY DEVELOPS. WHILE THE
CAMS DO SHOW THE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL, THEY DON'T SHOW MUCH IN THE
WAY OF SEVERE CHANCES, DESPITE INCREASING SHEAR, AS EVEN MUCAPE
REMAINS WEAK DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. HIGHS WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL, BUT COULD BE LOWER IF A WEAK IN-SITU CAD DEVELOPS.
KEY MESSAGE 2: A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE MAIN
HAZARDS BEING DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. WE ARE ONLY A
FEW DAYS OUT, SO START PREPARING NOW. MAKE SURE YOU HAVE MULTIPLE
WAYS TO RECEIVE WARNINGS AND THINK ABOUT WHERE YOU WOULD SEEK SAFE
SHELTER IF A WARNING WAS ISSUED FOR YOUR LOCATION.
A POTENT UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH OUT OF THE WEST SUNDAY EVENING
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE SWINGING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE, THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH OUT OF THE WEST SUNDAY EVENING INTO LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT BEFORE TRACKING ACROSS THE GSP CWA EARLY MONDAY MORNING INTO
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON.
PLENTIFUL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL STREAM INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF
THE FRONT, WITH DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S
EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS BY SUNDAY NIGHT, LINGERING THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON. PLENTY OF FORCING WILL BE AVAILABLE AS WELL WITH A 40-50
KT LLJ TRACKING OVER THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
AFTERNOON. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL START OUT RANGING FROM 40-50 KTS
SUNDAY NIGHT, INCREASING TO 50-60 KTS JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MONDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON. WITH STRONG FORCING AND SHEAR
AVAILABLE, IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH INSTABILITY FOR SEVERE STORMS TO
DEVELOP. BOTH GLOBAL AND HIGH-RES GUIDANCE AGREE THAT MUCAPE WILL
STEADILY INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON, WITH A FEW
HUNDRED J/KG OF MUCAPE DEVELOPING. THE LREF DEPICTS ROUGHLY A 30% TO
50% CHANCE OF 500 J/KG OF MUCAPE DEVELOPING EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE PRIMARY HAZARD WILL BE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, WITH THE SECONDARY HAZARD BEING ISOLATED
TORNADOES THANKS TO 200 TO 300 J/KG OF 0-1KM SRH DEVELOPING LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON PER THE 00Z NAM. HOWEVER, THE
TORNADO THREAT WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR
VECTORS ALIGN WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. IF SHEAR VECTORS END UP
MORE PARALLEL, LIKE THE 18Z ECMWF SHOWS, THIS COULD LIMIT THE
TORNADO THREAT SOMEWHAT. IF SHEAR VECTORS END UP LESS PARALLEL AND
LEAN MORE PERPENDICULAR, LIKE THE 18Z GFS SHOWS, THE TORNADO THREAT
WOULD NOT BE AS LIMITED.
AS WE HAVE BEEN MESSAGING THE LAST FEW FORECAST CYCLES, THE SEVERE
THREAT WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT. IF
THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT PUSHES EAST OF THE GSP CWA
PRIOR TO PEAK HEATING, THIS COULD LIMIT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL
SOMEWHAT. IF CONVECTION LINGERS OVER ANY PORTION OF THE GSP CWA
DURING PEAK HEATING, THEN THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE HIGHER. ONCE
MORE OF THE HIGH-RES MODELS START GOING OUT ALL THE WAY THROUGH
MONDAY, WE WILL SHOULD GET A BETTER IDEA REGARDING THE EXACT TIMING
OF SEVERE STORMS. REGARDLESS, NOW IS THE TIME TO MAKE YOUR SEVERE
WEATHER PREPARATIONS. MAKE SURE YOU HAVE MULTIPLE WAYS TO RECEIVE
WARNINGS SUCH AS NOAA WEATHER RADIO, WIRELESS EMERGENCY ALERTS
(WEA), SOCIAL MEDIA, OR LOCAL TV AND RADIO. IF YOU LIVE IN A MOBILE
OR MANUFACTURED HOME MAKE PLANS AHEAD OF TIME TO STAY WITH FRIENDS
OR FAMILY WHO LIVE IN A STURDY BUILDING AS MOBILE/MANUFACTURED HOMES
ARE NOT SAFE WHEN IT COMES TO TORNADOES.
KEY MESSAGE 3: A BRIEF PERIOD OF NORTHWEST FLOW SNOW WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE NC/TN BORDER BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON MONDAY, WITH LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE.
AS TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW FREEZING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, RAIN WILL
QUICKLY TRANSITION TO SNOW, MAINLY ALONG THE NC/TN BORDER. DEPENDING
ON HOW MUCH MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE BEHIND THE FRONT, NW FLOW SNOW
SHOWERS COULD LINGER THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS EVENT IS
STILL SHAPING UP TO BE SUB-ADVISORY, WITH BOTH THE NBM AND LREF ONLY
SHOWING A 15% TO 30% CHANCE OF SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS EXCEEDING 2"
IN 24 HOURS ALONG THE NC/TN BORDER COUNTIES. SO, ONLY MINOR IMPACTS
SUCH AS SLIPPERY ROAD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
KEY MESSAGE 4: GUSTY WINDS DEVELOP AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE FINALLY TAPERING OFF TUESDAY
EVENING. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTH
CAROLINA MOUNTAINS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
WIND SPEEDS WILL STEADILY INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT SUNDAY EVENING INTO LATE MONDAY AS A 40 TO 50 KT LLJ TRACKS
OVERHEAD. WIND SPEEDS WILL CONTINUE INCREASING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
MONDAY EVENING INTO EARLY MONDAY NIGHT AS WIND DIRECTION TURNS NW
BEHIND THE FRONT. A WIND ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS THE NBM SHOWS A 50%
TO 60% CHANCE OF GUSTS EXCEEDING 45 MPH, MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. GUSTS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS STILL LOOK TO REMAIN WELL
BELOW 45 MPH SO AN ADVISORY WILL NOT BE NEEDED ACROSS THESE
LOCATIONS. GUSTY WINDS LINGER THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING TUESDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 5: A MUCH COLDER AND DRIER AIR MASS RETURNS BEHIND THE
FRONT MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH MOST AREAS SEEING LOWS
EACH NIGHT FALLING NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING. WARMER TEMPERATURES
RETURN BY LATE WEEK WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUING.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST BEHIND THE DEPARTING
FRONT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT, ALLOWING DRIER AND MUCH
COLDER CONDITIONS TO RETURN. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN WELL BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH MID-WEEK. TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT ARE
LIKELY TO FALL BELOW FREEZING, WITH THE NBM SHOWING A 70% TO 100%
CHANCE OF LOW TEMPERATURES LESS THAN 32 DEGREES. ALTHOUGH WARMER LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE CENTER OF
THE SURFACE HIGH PUSHES OFFSHORE, MOST OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA
COULD SEE FREEZING TEMPERATURES RETURN (OUTSIDE OF THE CHARLOTTE
METRO AREA). ALTHOUGH THE GROWING SEASON HAS NOT OFFICIALLY STARTED,
THE RECENT PERIOD OF ABNORMALLY WARM WEATHER HAS ALLOWED SOME
VEGETATION TO START BLOOMING. SENSITIVE PLANTS THAT HAVE ALREADY
STARTED BLOOMING WILL BE PARTICULARLY VULNERABLE TO THESE COLD
TEMPERATURES EACH NIGHT.
WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WHILE MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS LINGER AS THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE RIDGE
REMAINS EXTENDED OVER THE CAROLINAS. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL BE
NOTICEABLE WARMING, BUT STILL A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL (OUTSIDE
THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS) BEFORE MUCH WARMER AND ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS
RETURN FRIDAY.
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: VFR EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD,
UNTIL NEAR DAYBREAK SUNDAY MORNING. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND THIS
MORNING PICKS UP FROM THE SE BY AFTERNOON, THEN TURNS LIGHT NE
OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. LIGHT SE CONTINUES AT KAVL.
MAINLY CIRRUS EXPECTED UNTIL NEAR DAYBREAK WHEN INCREASING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT LEAD TO MVFR CIGS.
OUTLOOK: MVFR CIGS CONTINUE WITH DEVELOPING SHOWERS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND CONTINUED
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS SUNDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY WITH THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
AR/RWH
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