653
FXUS62 KGSP 210730
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
330 AM EDT SUN JUN 21 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SPC HAS PLACED A GOOD
PORTION OF OUR NORTH CAROLINA ZONES IN A SLIGHT RISK AREA FROM MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1. EXPECT THE DRY WEATHER TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH DAILY SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURNING THIS WEEK. STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN HAZARD.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: EXPECT THE DRY WEATHER TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH DAILY
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURNING THIS WEEK. STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN HAZARD.
WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER OUR AREA TODAY WHICH SHOULD
HELP KEEP US MOSTLY DRY. MOST OF THE NEAR-TERM MODEL GUIDANCE HAS
BACKED OFF ON POPS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WHICH IS IN LINE WITH THE
LATEST CAM OUTPUT. THEY CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED TO SCT
SHOWERS/STORMS, BUT NEARLY ALL OF THEM ARE JUST OUTSIDE OF OUR CWA.
BASED ON THE MOST RECENT OUTPUT, OUR SOUTHERNMOST ZONES MAY HAVE THE
BEST CHANCE OF SEEING SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY. WITH LOW-LEVEL SWLY FLOW
ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY, TEMPERATURES WILL WARM, WITH HIGHS EXPECTED
TO BE JUST ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE FIRST DAY OF SUMMER.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WESTERN CAROLINAS FROM THE W/NW
ON MONDAY, AND MOVE THRU OUR AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. A LINE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING PER THE LATEST CAM GUIDANCE. THE LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEPICT ROUGHLY 20 TO 30 KTS OF DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND 1500 TO 2000 J/KG OF SFC-BASED CAPE ACROSS
MOST OF OUR CWA. AS SUCH, STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THE LATEST DAY 2 SPC OUTLOOK NOW HAS A GOOD PORTION OF OUR NC ZONES
IN A SLIGHT RISK AREA FOR DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS ON MONDAY.
THE REST OF OUR CWA IS STILL UNDER A MARGINAL RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS.
AT THIS TIME, LARGE HAIL AND/OR TORNADOES APPEAR UNLIKELY. IN ADDITION,
IT'S LOOKING LIKE WE MAY SEE ONE ROUND OF CONVECTION MOVE THRU OUR AREA
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND A SECOND ROUND MOVE THRU LATER MONDAY EVENING. THIS
WILL BE WATCHED CLOSELY AS WE GET CLOSER TO MONDAY AND MORE HIGH-RESOLU-
TION GUIDANCE CAPTURES THE FULL EVENT. OTHERWISE, BREEZY SWLY WINDS CAN
ALSO BE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON MONDAY, WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH
EXPECTED OUTSIDE THE NC MOUNTAINS AND MARGINALLY WEAKER GUSTS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. BEHIND THE FRONT, A MORE DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CONVECTIVE PATTERN
RETURNS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS NEAR NORMAL THRU THURSDAY,
AND VALUES JUST ABOVE NORMAL FOR FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: EXPECT DRY, VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE AT
ALL SITES THRU THE 06Z TAF PERIOD. EXPECT FEW TO BKN HIGH CLOUDS
TO STREAM OVER THE AREA FROM THE WEST THRU THE OVERNIGHT AND INTO
THE MORNING WITH SKIES CLEARING LATER THIS MORNING. WE'LL LIKELY
SEE A FEW CUMULUS AND HIGH CIRRUS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
AREA. THE USUAL FOG-PRONE MTN VALLEYS WILL PROBABLY SEE ANOTHER
ROUND OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS THIS MORNING, BUT IT'S NOT EXPECTED
TO REACH KAVL. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VRB TO CALM THRU THE
MORNING AND EVENTUALLY PICK UP FROM THE S/SW AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON
WITH SPEEDS BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KTS.
OUTLOOK: RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY TO RETURN AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. DIURNAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
JPT
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