593
FXUS62 KGSP 162350
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
750 PM EDT TUE JUL 16 2019
SYNOPSIS
SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE BARRY WILL
OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD, INCREASING THE COVERAGE
OF DAILY SHOWERS AND STORMS.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 725 PM EDT TUESDAY: ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN OVER THE
MTNS, AS EXPECTED, SO FEW CHANGES ARE NEEDED TO THE FCST. TEMP/DEWPT
TRENDS ALSO LOOK DECENT. SHOULD BE A QUIET EVENING AND INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS.
OTHERWISE, A MID-LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO HOLD OVER THE AREA,
BUT IS EXPECTED TO GET SHOVED EASTWARD AS REMNANTS OF BARRY,
NOW A OPEN SYNOPTIC WAVE, PROGRESSES NORTHEASTWARD JUST WEST
OF THE APPALACHIANS. A SURFACE HIGH IS REPLACED BY A TROUGH BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING JUST EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. THIS TROUGH WILL
PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
WINDS AT 850MB INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY, ALLOWING SOME GUSTS TO
15 OR 20 MPH WITH SOME MIXING. THE SURFACE TROUGH THAT FORMS
EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS AHEAD OF THE BARRY REMNANT DOES LITTLE
TO ALTER THE MOISTURE OR THERMAL PROFILE, AND WILL KEEP WARM,
MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER MOST OF THE AREA, WITH HIGH AND LOW
TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO RUN 5 OR SO DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 1230 PM TUESDAY: DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORKWEEK, THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN PROGGED TO BE ATOP THE SE CONUS WILL FEATURE A
BROADLY CONVERGENT LLVL FLOW AND WEAK UPPER TROUGHING WHICH FILLS BY
THE WEEKEND. IN COMBINATION WITH LINGERING TROPICAL MOISTURE, PWAT
VALUES AT OR ABOVE 2 INCHES, THE COVERAGE OF DIURNALLY ENHANCED DEEP
CONVECTION SHOULD BECOME NUMEROUS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND SCATTERED IN
THE PIEDMONT. THERE IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL EACH DAY. THE BUBBLE OF GREATER THAN 20C 85H TEMPS ACRS THE
PIEDMONT ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE DISPLACED TO THE COAST ON THURSDAY,
KNOCKING APPARENT TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN INTO THE UPPER 90S. THE
HOTTER AIRMASS REASSERTS ITSELF ON FRIDAY LEADING TO PIEDMONT
APPARENT TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 100S.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 130 PM TUESDAY: THE WEATHER PATTERN ATOP THE REGION FOR THE
WEEKEND IS SHAPING UP TO BE PRETTY TYPICAL FOR MID-JULY, BROAD LLVL
CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND BERMUDA HIPRES AND A WEAK FLOW REGIME ALOFT.
MEAN MOISTURE THOUGH IS PROGGED TO BE ABOVE CLIMO LEADING TO
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS DIURNALLY ENHANCED TSTMS EACH DAY. THERE LOOKS
TO BE LITTLE CHANGE IN THE ORIENTATION AND MAGNITUDE OF BLYR HOT AIR
AND DWPTS, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR APPARENT TEMPERATURES RISING INTO
THE LOWER 100S IN THE PIEDMONT EACH AFTERNOON. THE EXTENDED RANGE
MODEL CONSENSUS IS AMPLIFYING THE PATTERN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK,
DEVELOPING A BROAD TROUGH ACRS THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS PATTERN
CHANGE SHOULD AID MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES DROPPING BACK TO NEAR CLIMO
BY DAY 7.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: LOOKS LIKE THE ISOLATED DEEP CONVECTION WILL
AVOID ANY OF THE TAF SITES THIS EVENING, SO VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AT ALL SITES NOT NAMED KAVL. ANOTHER
THUNDERSTORM MOVED NEAR KAVL LATE TODAY, SO THAT ONCE AGAIN RAISES
THE CHANCES OF A FOG/LOW STRATUS RESTRICTION AFTER MIDNIGHT. FOR
THE TIME BEING, THIS WAS HANDLED WITH A PREVAILING MVFR VISIBILITY
RESTRICTION, BUT THIS COULD EASILY BE LIFR LIKE THIS PAST
MORNING. THE RESTRICTIONS, IF THEY DEVELOP IN THE MTN VALLEYS
SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 13Z. WIND WILL BE LIGHT SW OR LIGHT/VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT. ON WEDNESDAY, PRECIP CHANCES GO UP ACROSS THE MTNS BUT
STILL LOOK PALTRY OUTSIDE THE MTNS, SO ONLY KAVL GETS THE AFTERNOON
PROB30. THIS MIGHT NEED TO BE RAISED TO A TEMPO IN FUTURE ISSUANCES
IF WE CAN NAIL DOWN THE MOST LIKELY TIME THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL
MOVE NEAR THE SITE. THE OTHER WRINKLE FOR TOMORROW WILL BE THE
WINDSPEED, AS STRONGER WINDS ALOFT MIX DOWN IN THE AFTERNOON AT
ALL SITES. THUS, ALL TERMINALS OUTSIDE THE MTNS GET WIND GUSTS
FROM THE SW IN THE AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK: TYPICAL SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE WEEK, ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. PATCHY MOUNTAIN VALLEY
FOG AND LOW CIGS REMAIN POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
23-05Z 05-11Z 11-17Z 17-18Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK:
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...CSH
NEAR TERM...PM/WJM
SHORT TERM...CSH
LONG TERM...CSH
AVIATION...PM
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