675
FXUS62 KGSP 131833
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
233 PM EDT TUE OCT 13 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
TRENDING SLIGHTLY COOLER THIS WEEKEND INTO MONDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1. WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LINGER THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE A
STRONG COLD FRONT BRINGS MUCH COOLER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
OVER THE WEEKEND. FROST MAY DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTH
CAROLINA MOUNTAINS SATURDAY NIGHT BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
2. GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE COLD FRONT
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. CONFIDENCE ON A WIND ADVISORY IS LOW AT
THIS TIME.
3. DRY FOR MOST AREAS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK OUTSIDE OF SOME
NORTHWEST FLOW RAIN SHOWERS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LINGER THROUGH FRIDAY
BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT BRINGS MUCH COOLER AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND. FROST MAY DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF
THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS SATURDAY NIGHT BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY,
LINGERING OVER THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE RIDGE
GRADUALLY RETREATS SOUTH AND EAST ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH
DIGGING ACROSS THE MIDWEST AS IT PUSHES EASTWARD. THIS PATTERN WILL
ACT TO KEEP WARM AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AROUND THROUGH
FRIDAY. BOTH HIGHS AND LOWS EACH DAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL END UP
AROUND 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH THEN DIGS SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE
CAROLINAS OVER THE WEEKEND BEFORE ANOTHER UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER
THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THE SURFACE, A COLD FRONT WILL BRING
THE STRONGEST AIRMASS CHANGE WE HAVE SEEN SO FAR THIS FALL, WITH
HIGHS BEHIND THE FRONT EXPECTED TO BE ROUGHLY 20 DEGREES COOLER ON
SATURDAY COMPARED FRIDAY. HIGHS OVER THE WEEKEND SHOULD END UP
AROUND 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL, BECOMING A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL MONDAY AND NEAR NORMAL TUESDAY AS HEIGHTS GRADUALLY BUILD.
MUCH COOLER LOWS RETURN STARTING FRIDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT, WITH
SATURDAY NIGHT SHAPING UP TO BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. DESPITE MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT, GUSTY WINDS
WILL PROHIBIT FROST DEVELOPMENT. THE FROST POTENTIAL WILL BE BETTER
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO DAYBREAK SUNDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT FINALLY
RELAXES, ALLOWING LIGHTER WINDS TO RETURN. FROST WOULD APPEAR TO BE
MAINLY CONFINED TO THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS AT THIS TIME BASED
ON THE CURRENT LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST. NO MAJOR CONCERNS REGARDING
A POTENTIAL FREEZE AT THIS TIME AS MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH LOWS EXPECTED TO GO ON A WARMING TREND
STARTING SUNDAY NIGHT, FROST CONCERNS WILL BE VERY LOW THROUGH THE
REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
KEY MESSAGE 2: GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE COLD
FRONT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. CONFIDENCE ON A WIND ADVISORY IS LOW AT
THIS TIME.
BREEZY W/SW WINDS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT, BECOMING
GUSTY AS WINDS TURN NW BEHIND THE FRONT. FOR NOW, IT APPEARS THAT
MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA (WHICH
STARTS AT 45 MPH) OUTSIDE OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE NORTHERN
NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS. THE LREF SEEMS TO AGREE WITH THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS HAVING THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS
DEVELOP, SHOWING A ROUGHLY 40-50% CHANCE OF GUSTS EXCEEDING 45 MPH.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS REGARDING WIND GUSTS IN THE COMING
DAYS TO SEE IF A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED. WIND GUSTS SHOULD
GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGHOUT SATURDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
RELAXES.
KEY MESSAGE 3: DRY FOR MOST AREAS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK OUTSIDE OF
SOME NORTHWEST FLOW RAIN SHOWERS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT.
DRY HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS OVER THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
BEFORE THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. NORTHWEST FLOW RAIN SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND
THE FRONT FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO AT LEAST FRIDAY NIGHT, BUT COULD
LINGER THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO REMAIN
WARM ENOUGH BEHIND THE FRONT FOR ALL LIQUID PRECIPITATION AS THE
COLD AIR WILL BE CHASING THE MOISTURE. ANOTHER AREA OF DRY HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT THIS WEEKEND,
LINGERING OVER THE REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK ALLOWING DRY
CONDITIONS TO RETURN AREA-WIDE.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: DRY, MOSTLY CLEAR, AND VFR OUTSIDE ANOTHER
ROUND OF MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS OVERNIGHT INTO
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. CONFIDENCE ON RESTRICTIONS DEVELOPING AT KAVL
OVERNIGHT IS LOW AS THE TERMINAL DID NOT SEE FOG OR STRATUS DEVELOP
THIS MORNING. THUS, MAINTAINED VFR CONDITIONS AT KAVL THROUGH THE
18Z TAF PERIOD. WINDS TODAY WILL BE MAINLY NW/WNW ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS WITH MAINLY SW WINDS WINDS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. WINDS
SHOULD GO LIGHT AND VRB A TIMES. CALM WINDS RETURN THIS EVENING INTO
LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR MOST TERMINALS, ALTHOUGH KAVL SHOULD SEE
WINDS PICK BACK UP OUT OF THE NW PRIOR TO DAYBREAK.
OUTLOOK: MAINLY VFR THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK OUTSIDE OF THE POTENTIAL
FOR MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG AND LOW STRATUS EACH MORNING.
CLIMATE
RECORDS FOR 10-13
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 83 1969 44 1907 63 2017 29 1917
1954
KCLT 91 1954 50 1977 68 1883 35 1964
KGSP 87 1954 54 1906 65 2017 29 1988
1954
1926
RECORDS FOR 10-14
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 82 1928 51 1907 64 1954 25 1988
KCLT 87 2021 56 1922 68 1883 32 2006
1940 1881
KGSP 86 1985 57 1907 67 1954 30 1988
1928
RECORDS FOR 10-15
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 86 1897 52 2002 60 2017 27 1907
1970
1928
KCLT 88 1985 53 2009 66 1985 30 2006
KGSP 86 1985 53 2002 65 1985 31 1907
1941 1970
RECORDS FOR 10-16
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 87 1897 49 1954 63 1928 29 1939
KCLT 87 1925 58 1937 68 1947 35 1939
1925
KGSP 85 1935 53 1937 67 1925 32 1907
1911
1892
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
AR
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