596
FXUS62 KGSP 170545
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
145 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 06Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
1. MOSTLY DRY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS STICKING
AROUND. ANOTHER SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR INCREASED FIRE
DANGER WILL BE IN EFFECT ACROSS NORTHEAST GEORGIA TODAY FROM 12
PM TO 8 PM. HOT CONDITIONS WILL RETURN EACH AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS
EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS FLIRTING WITH RECORDS ON SATURDAY.
2. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING ONLY SPOTTY BENEFICIAL RAINFALL TO THE
MOUNTAINS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, WITH SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO FOLLOW EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOME FROST IS POSSIBLE
OVER THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT, SO PRECAUTIONS MIGHT
BE NEEDED TO PROTECT SENSITIVE VEGETATION. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
WILL OTHERWISE CONTINUE, AS VERY LOW AFTERNOON RH RETURNS.
3. HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN DURING THE LATTER HALF OF
NEXT WEEK, WITH NO RELIEF IN SITE FOR DROUGHT OR FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: MOSTLY DRY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
STICKING AROUND. ANOTHER SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR INCREASED
FIRE DANGER WILL BE IN EFFECT ACROSS NORTHEAST GEORGIA TODAY FROM 12
PM TO 8 PM. HOT CONDITIONS WILL RETURN EACH AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS
EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS FLIRTING WITH RECORDS ON SATURDAY.
MOSTLY DRY TODAY OUTSIDE OF SOME SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS TRACKING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS MORNING.
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO FALL APART AS IT PUSHES EAST, WITH LITTLE
TO NO MOISTURE EXPECTED TO SURVIVE EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. ANOTHER
LINE OF CONVECTION WILL APPROACH OUT OF THE WEST LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT, BUT THE BEST RAIN CHANCES SHOULD
HOLD OFF UNTIL SATURDAY EVENING (SEE KEY MESSAGE 2). DRY CONDITIONS
CAN BE EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF THESE TIME FRAMES THANKS TO SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE REGION.
ANOTHER SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR INCREASED FIRE
DANGER ACROSS NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND IS IN EFFECT FROM 12 PM TO 8 PM
TODAY AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL FALL BELOW 30%. A BURN BAN REMAINS
IN PLACE FOR NORTH CAROLINA UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE AND A BURN BAN WILL
BE IN EFFECT ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA STARTING AT 7 AM THIS MORNING,
REMAINING IN PLACE UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. THUS, FIRE DANGER
STATEMENTS SHOULD NOT BE NEEDED FOR THE WESTERN CAROLINAS TODAY WITH
BURN BANS IN EFFECT. BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT BUT WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA. WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TO
DROP NEAR/BELOW 30%, FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL RETURN SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ~14-18 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HIGHS ON SATURDAY COULD FLIRT WITH RECORDS EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS. PER THE NBM, KGSP WILL HAVE A 40% TO 50% CHANCE OF T>89
DEGREES, A 15% CHANCE OF T>93 DEGREES AT KCLT, AND A 0% CHANCE FOR
T>90 AT KAVL ON SATURDAY. SO, KGSP APPEARS TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE
TO TIE OR BREAK THEIR RECORD HIGH ON SATURDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2: A COLD FRONT WILL BRING ONLY SPOTTY BENEFICIAL RAINFALL
TO THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, WITH SIGNIFICANTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES TO FOLLOW EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOME FROST IS
POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT, SO PRECAUTIONS
MIGHT BE NEEDED TO PROTECT SENSITIVE VEGETATION. FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS WILL OTHERWISE CONTINUE, AS VERY LOW AFTERNOON RH RETURNS.
A CYCLONE WILL SKIRT THE SOUTHERN SHORES OF HUDSON BAY SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY, WITH ATTENDANT UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT FORECAST
TO SWEEP ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY. UNFORTUNATELY, THE DEEPER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER JET MAX IS FORECAST TO PASS NORTH OF OUR CWA. MEANWHILE,
WHILE SOME DEGREE OF GULF MOISTURE RETURN IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE
FRONT, THE QUALITY OF THAT MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BE MEDIOCRE, AS
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE
GULF. AS SUCH, GUIDANCE DEPICTS A NARROW FRONTAL BAND OF SHOWERS, W/
PERHAPS A FEW EMBEDDED STORMS MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
SAT NIGHT, WHICH WILL THEN STRUGGLE TO MAINTAIN ORGANIZATION EAST
OF THE CREST OF THE APPALACHIANS. ISOLATED PORTIONS OF THE HIGH
TERRAIN PROBABLY WILL SEE SOME BENEFICIAL RAINFALL UP TO 0.25,"
BUT THE VAST MAJORITY OF OUR AREA WILL SEE LITTLE-TO-NO RAINFALL.
THE MORE NOTABLE CHANGE BROUGHT BY THE FRONT WILL BE A RETURN TO
TEMPERATURES MORE SANE FOR MID-APRIL SUNDAY THROUGH TUE NIGHT. IN
FACT, MUCH OF THIS TIME FRAME IS EXPECTED TO SEE BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS...HIGHS 2-5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...WITH LOWS 5-10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL OWING TO THE DRY NATURE OF THE AIR MASS PRODUCING LARGE
DIURNAL TEMP RANGES. MORNING FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SHELTERED
VALLEYS MON NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY TUE NIGHT...WHEN SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO SETTLE NEAR THE FORECAST AREA.
OTHERWISE, FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL RETURN...IF THEY EVER ABATED
AT ALL...WITH VERY LOW-TO-CRITICAL AFTERNOON RH FORECAST EACH DAY
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. FOR THE MOST PART, WINDS WILL NOT BE AN
ISSUE...EXCEPT FOR SUNDAY...WHEN GUSTS FROM THE NW OF 25-30 MPH
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS (20-25 MPH ELSEWHERE), WITH SOME
BRIEF OVERLAP OF CRITICAL WIND AND RH POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGE 3: HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN DURING THE LATTER
HALF OF NEXT WEEK, WITH NO RELIEF IN SITE FOR DROUGHT OR FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS.
AS AN UPPER RIDGE STEADILY APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE CENTRAL
CONUS, THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LOW
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL
STEADILY MODIFY WITHIN THIS AIR MASS THROUGH, WITH MAXES FORECAST
TO RETURN TO AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO BY THURSDAY. MEANWHILE,
IT APPEARS MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE MINIMAL TO NON-EXISTENT
THROUGH DAY 7, AND VERY LOW-TO-CRITICAL RH IS EXPECTED WED AND
THU AFTERNOON. THE VERY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL EXACERBATE
THE FIRE DANGER SITUATION, ESPECIALLY ACROSS AREAS OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN WHERE GREEN-UP HAS YET TO COMPLETE.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: DRY AND VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE
TERMINALS THROUGH THE 06Z TAF PERIOD. WIND DIRECTION WILL START OUT
WNW/NW THIS MORNING, TURNING WSW/SW FOR MOST TERMINALS EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. KHKY AND KAVL ARE MOST LIKELY TO SEE WINDS
STAY WNW/NW THROUGH THE PERIOD. STRATOCU WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
EAST THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE DISSIPATING AROUND DAYBREAK.
PERIODIC CIRRUS CAN BE EXPECTED, BECOMING SCT TO POSSIBLY BKN AT
TIMES.
OUTLOOK: A COLD FRONT MAY BRING BRIEF RAIN CHANCES AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH
CAROLINA MOUNTAINS. DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.
CLIMATE
RECORDS FOR 04-17
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 89 1896 45 1890 63 1927 26 1904
KCLT 94 1896 47 1890 66 1896 30 2018
1949
KGSP 92 2006 51 1904 63 1927 25 1905
RECORDS FOR 04-18
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 90 1896 44 1921 60 1927 28 1905
1891
KCLT 93 1896 45 1983 66 1896 32 2001
KGSP 89 2002 51 1983 66 1927 28 1905
1967
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
AR/JDL
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