428
FXUS62 KGSP 100644
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
244 AM EDT WED JUN 10 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
POP TODAY ADJUSTED FOR LATEST MODEL TIMING.
KEY MESSAGES
1. MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION THROUGH MUCH OF THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS,
WITH HOTTER-THAN-NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED LATE THIS WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION THROUGH MUCH OF THE NEXT
SEVEN DAYS, WITH HOTTER-THAN-NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
LATE THIS WEEK.
AREAS OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS THIS MORNING WILL DISSIPATE RELATIVELY
QUICKLY AFTER DAYBREAK. THE TAIL END OF A SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS COMBINED WITH A WEAK BOUNDARY FROM A
DISSIPATED OVERNIGHT MCS WILL PROVIDE FORCING FOR A LINE OF
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP AND CROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH
NEAR NORMAL DIURNAL TIMING. INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL BE WEAK, BUT
WITH GOOD FORCING A FEW STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE.
ISOLATED HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE, BUT WILL BE MORE LIMITED THAN
WE SAW ON TUESDAY.
AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE A SERIES
OF SHORTWAVES BRING MORE ZONAL FLOW FOR THE WEEKEND AND EVEN A
TROUGH DEVELOPING EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE RESULT IS HOT TEMPERATURES
DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA, WITH FRIDAY BEING THE HOTTEST DAY. RIGHT
NOW, IT APPEARS THE MODEL BLEND IN ON THE HIGH END OF GUIDANCE.
WHILE THE PROBABILITY OF HIGHS ABOVE 90 OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS IS
VERY HIGH THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, THE PROBABILITY OF HIGHS ABOVE 95
IS QUITE LOW FOR OUR AREA, MORE LIKELY TO OUR EAST AND SOUTH.
THEREFORE, HAVE GONE A LITTLE BELOW THE BLEND FOR HIGHS. THIS STILL
BRINGS HEAT INDEX VALUES NEAR 100 FOR THURSDAY AND AROUND 100 ON
FRIDAY. TEMPS THEN SLOWLY FALL TO AROUND NORMAL AS HEIGHTS FALL
WITH THE ZONAL FLOW AND TROUGH.
DIURNAL CONVECTION CONTINUES THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND FAVORING
THE MOUNTAINS EACH DAY DUE TO THE RIDGE LIMITING INSTABILITY OR
CREATING HIGH LFC'S OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS. CHANCES INCREASE
ACROSS THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE HEIGHT FALLS AND SHORTWAVE
ACTIVITY.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: AREAS OF FOG AND STRATUS ARE DEVELOPING
UNDERNEATH THE CIRRUS CANOPY OVER THE AREA. KHKY WILL SEE LIFR TO
VLIFR CONDITIONS. KAVL AND KCLT HAVE THE NEXT BEST CHANCES WITH IFR
TO LIFR. KAVL MORE FOG AND KCLT MORE STRATUS. CAN'T RULE OUT VLIFR
AT EITHER. KAND WILL SEE MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR. KGSP/KGMU HAVE THE
LEAST CHANCES, BUT MAY STILL END UP WITH SOME RESTRICTIONS.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR RELATIVELY QUICKLY AFTER DAYBREAK.
A LINE OF CONVECTION DEVELOPS AND SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA WITH A NEAR
NORMAL DIURNAL TIMING. FOG AND STRATUS MAY RETURN OVERNIGHT. LIGHT S
TO SE WINDS THIS MORNING PICK UP FROM THE S TO SW DURING THE DAY,
THEN BACK LIGHT OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK: DIURNAL CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS ARE
EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND. MTN VALLEY FOG AND LOW STRATUS ARE
POSSIBLE EACH MORNING.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
RWH
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