877
FXUS62 KGSP 062339
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
639 PM EST FRI FEB 6 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE WIND ADVISORY WAS EXPANDED TO INCLUDE THE REMAINDER OF THE
NC MOUNTAINS, THE REMAINDER OF THE WESTERN PIEDMONT OF NC EXCEPT
UNION COUNTY, THE NORTHEAST GA MOUNTAINS, AND THE UPSTATE ALONG/N
OF I-85. ALL OTHER HAZARDS REMAIN THE SAME.
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 00Z TAF SET.
KEY MESSAGES
1. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MADISON/YANCEY/MITCHELL/AVERY
COUNTIES THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY FOR SNOW ACCUMULATION THAT WILL
RESULT IN SOME TRAVEL IMPACTS.
2. A HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING
TO 7 PM SATURDAY EVENING FOR PORTIONS OF THE NC MOUNTAINS
NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE ESCARPMENT. THE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN
EXPANDED TO INCLUDE ALL OF THE REMAINDER OF THE NC MOUNTAINS
AND WESTERN PIEDMONT, AS WELL AS EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN UPSTATE, FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7
PM SATURDAY EVENING. IN GENERAL, WIND GUSTS OF 45 TO 55 MPH WILL
BE POSSIBLE IN THE ADVISORY AREA AND 55 TO 65 MPH IN THE WARNING
AREA. THESE CONDITIONS MAY KNOCK DOWN TREE LIMBS AND CAUSE POWER
OUTAGES. STRONGER WINDS WILL INCREASE THE LIKELIHOOD OF THOSE
IMPACTS BUT ALSO COULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH MINOR STRUCTURAL DAMAGE.
3. A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE
NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
AS DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS COULD RESULT IN HYPOTHERMIA OR
FROSTBITE IF PRECAUTIONS ARE NOT TAKEN.
4. VERY LOW AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY
ALONG WITH STRONG AND FREQUENT WIND GUSTS. HOWEVER, FUEL MOISTURE
REMAINS HIGH ENOUGH DUE TO LINGERING WET GROUND FROM OUR RECENT
WINTER STORMS THAT A RED FLAG/FIRE DANGER STATEMENTS ARE NOT
WARRANTED.
5. SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEK. THE NEXT ROUND OF RAIN ARRIVES WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
MADISON/YANCEY/MITCHELL/AVERY COUNTIES THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY FOR
SNOW ACCUMULATION THAT WILL RESULT IN SOME TRAVEL IMPACTS.
AS EXPECTED, RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THE LEADING EDGE OF LIGHT PRECIP
REACHING THE MTNS AT 17Z, WITH CLOUD TOP TEMPS WELL DOWN INTO THE
DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH ZONE, SO SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD BE ONGOING
BY THE TIME YOU READ THIS. NOT MUCH CHANGE TO EARLIER THINKING,
OTHER THAN TO BE ABLE TO SEE THE RADAR TRENDS WHICH SHOW SEVERAL
BANDS OF PRECIP EXTENDING BACK/NW TO CENTRAL KY. THE TREND SUGGESTS
THAT SEVERAL HOURS OF ELEVATION-DEPENDENT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS CAN
BE EXPECTED FOR THE BETTER PART OF THE AFTERNOON. MESOANALYSIS
SHOWS SUB-33F WET BULB TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA FROM MADISON TO AVERY
COUNTIES, SO A GOOD BIT OF THE PRECIP SHOULD FALL AS SNOW SHOWERS IN
THOSE ZONES. THUS, OUR EXPECTED FIRST ROUND OF SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
APPEARS TO BE IMMINENT, OR ONGOING THIS AFTERNOON. ONCE THE SHORT
WAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR ORGANIZING THIS INITIAL BAND MOVES PAST, AND
THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION EARLY THIS EVENING, THERE MAY BE
A BRIEF PERIOD OF A FEW HOURS WHEN THE MOISTURE BECOMES SHALLOW
ENOUGH TO BE CONCERNED WITH ICE NUCLEATION. THIS COULD RESULT IN
A BRIEF CHANGEOVER TO FREEZING DRIZZLE OR RIME ICE OVER THE NRN
MOUNTAINS. FORTUNATELY, THE ADVISORY HAS ALREADY BEEN CHANGED TO
INCORPORATE ALL OF MADISON/YANCEY/MITCHELL/AVERY, SO THIS POSSIBLE
WRINKLE IS COVERED. WE APPEAR TO BE ON TRACK WITH THE SECOND ROUND
OF SNOW SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY, AS GUIDANCE ONCE AGAIN
DEEPENS THE MOISTURE ENOUGH TO REACH THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. SNOW
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE HIGHLY VARIABLE ACROSS THOSE ZONES, BUT ON AVERAGE
WILL BE BELOW WARNING CRITERIA AND HAVEN'T CHANGED APPRECIABLY.
NOW THAT THE EVENT IS ON THE HORIZON, WE WILL ALSO ISSUE A SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT FOR GRAHAM/SWAIN/HAYWOOD TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
SNOW ACCUM OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SMOKIES ALONG THE TN
BORDER. THE MORE POPULATED AREAS ALONG THE US-74 CORRIDOR WILL
SEE VERY LITTLE SNOW, THUS WE WILL NOT BE ISSUING AN ADVISORY FOR
THOSE ZONES AT THIS TIME.
LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING, THE STRONG WIND GUSTS
THAT DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT MAY CAUSE SOME BLOWING SNOW THAT WOULD
REDUCE THE VISIBILITY AT TIMES, SO THAT WAS ADDED TO THE FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGE 2: A HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM
THIS EVENING TO 7 PM SATURDAY EVENING FOR PORTIONS OF THE NC
MOUNTAINS NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE ESCARPMENT. THE WIND ADVISORY HAS
BEEN EXPANDED TO INCLUDE ALL OF THE REMAINDER OF THE NC MOUNTAINS
AND WESTERN PIEDMONT, AS WELL AS EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN UPSTATE, FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7
PM SATURDAY EVENING. IN GENERAL, WIND GUSTS OF 45 TO 55 MPH WILL
BE POSSIBLE IN THE ADVISORY AREA AND 55 TO 65 MPH IN THE WARNING
AREA. THESE CONDITIONS MAY KNOCK DOWN TREE LIMBS AND CAUSE POWER
OUTAGES. STRONGER WINDS WILL INCREASE THE LIKELIHOOD OF THOSE
IMPACTS BUT ALSO COULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH MINOR STRUCTURAL DAMAGE.
NOT MUCH CHANGE TO EARLIER THINKING WITH REGARD TO THE HIGH
WIND POTENTIAL DEVELOPING TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY ACROSS
THE REGION. WE ARE STILL LOOKING AT WINDS INCREASING ACROSS
THE REGION AS THE COLD ADVECTION SETS IN BEHIND A COLD FRONT
THIS EVENING. THE 850 MB WINDS STILL MAXIMIZE AROUND DAYBREAK
SATURDAY WITH SOME POCKETS GREATER THAN 60 KT, PARTICULARLY ALONG
THE BLUE RIDGE ESCARPMENT, AND THE PRESSURE DIFFERENCE ACROSS THE
MTNS STILL REACHES ROUGHLY 10 MB SATURDAY MORNING, BOTH OF WHICH
ARE SUPPORTIVE OF VERY STRONG WIND GUSTS REACHING THE GROUND AS
THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER POKES UP INTO THE HIGHER MOMENTUM
FLOW. OVERNIGHT AND MORNING GUIDANCE FROM THE HREF SUGGESTED
THAT WIND ADVISORY-CRITERIA GUSTS LOOK TO BE A REALLY GOOD BET
(WHICH IS TO SAY...LIKELY) FANNING OUT ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT OF NC (WITH THE EXCEPTION OF UNION COUNTY NC),
THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHEAST GA, AND THE UPSTATE ALONG/N OF I-85
WHERE GAP WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED. THE ADVISORY WAS EXPANDED TO
INCLUDE ALL THOSE AREAS. IN COLD ADVECTION FLOWS, WE OFTEN GET
WIND GUSTS IN THOSE AREAS EAST OF THE MTNS THAT END UP STRONGER
THAN WHAT GUIDANCE INDICATES, PERHAPS NOT AS MUCH AS 50-55 MPH,
BUT ENOUGH TO KNOCK DOWN SOME TREE LIMBS AND POWER LINES. THE AREA
WEST OF THE ORIGINAL HIGH WIND WARNING WAS INCLUDED IN A NEW WIND
ADVISORY SEGMENT TO FILL IN A HOLE BETWEEN THE WARNING AND AN
ADVISORY ISSUED FOR EAST TN, THOUGH WIND GUSTS MIGHT ONLY REACH
CRITERIA OVER THE RIDGETOPS. WINDS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
DURING THE LATE PART OF THE AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 3: A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS
OF THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING AS DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS COULD RESULT IN HYPOTHERMIA
OR FROSTBITE IF PRECAUTIONS ARE NOT TAKEN.
NO CHANGES TO EARLIER THINKING WITH REGARD TO THE WIND CHILL
SITUATION ACROSS THE HIGH ELEVATIONS OF THE NC MOUNTAINS
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. GUSTY WINDS COMBINED WITH COLD
TEMPERATURES WILL LEAD TO DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS OF 5 TO
15 BELOW ZERO FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING IN AVERY
COUNTY AND FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 3,500 FEET IN MITCHELL, YANCEY,
MADISON, HAYWOOD, SWAIN, AND NORTHERN JACKSON COUNTIES. A COLD
WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THESE LOCATIONS FROM 1 AM
SATURDAY THROUGH 7 AM SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH, WIND CHILLS WILL LIKELY
RISE ABOVE COLD WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA (GREATER THAN 5 BELOW
ZERO) BRIEFLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON, OPTED TO MAINTAIN THE ADVISORY
THROUGH DAYBREAK SUNDAY AS WIND CHILLS WILL DROP BACK TO CRITERIA
AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET SATURDAY. THESE DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND
CHILLS COULD RESULT IN HYPOTHERMIA OR FROSTBITE IF PRECAUTIONS ARE
NOT TAKEN. USE CAUTION WHILE TRAVELING OUTSIDE. WEAR APPROPRIATE
CLOTHING, A HAT, AND GLOVES.
KEY MESSAGE 4: VERY LOW AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY ALONG WITH STRONG AND FREQUENT WIND GUSTS. HOWEVER, FUEL
MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH ENOUGH DUE TO LINGERING WET GROUND FROM OUR
RECENT WINTER STORMS THAT A RED FLAG/FIRE DANGER STATEMENTS ARE
NOT WARRANTED.
UPON EXTENSIVE COORDINATION WITH LAND MANAGEMENT AGENCIES, RED
FLAG/INCREASED FIRE DANGER PRODUCTS WILL NOT BE ISSUED AT THIS
TIME BECAUSE FUEL MOISTURE REMAINS RELATIVELY HIGH THANKS TO OUR
RECENT WINTER STORMS. HOWEVER, THERE WILL BE SOME OVERLAP BETWEEN
VERY LOW RH OUTSIDE THE NC MOUNTAINS, DOWN INTO THE TEENS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON, AND STRONG WIND GUSTS ABOVE 30 MPH, SUCH THAT WEATHER
CRITERIA WOULD BE MET. IF FUELS DRY OUT MORE THAN EXPECTED FRIDAY
AFTERNOON, THE FIRE WEATHER SITUATION WILL BE REVISITED BY THE
MID SHIFT AND STATEMENTS/WARNINGS MIGHT STILL BE ISSUED.
KEY MESSAGE 5: SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. THE NEXT ROUND OF RAIN ARRIVES WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY.
BY SUNDAY MORNING, THE CAROLINAS WILL BE SANDWICHED BETWEEN A
DEPARTING UPPER SPEED MAX OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND A BROAD
SPLIT-FLOW PATTERN OVER THE ROCKIES. NW FLOW ALOFT WILL BRIEFLY BE
BROKEN BY A WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE AREA WITH LITTLE
FANFARE SUNDAY AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN LITTLE MORE THAN INCREASED
CLOUD COVER THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.
THEREAFTER, OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE DEPICTS A STOUT INCREASE IN SFC
THETA-E PERSISTING THROUGH MID-WEEK AS A WARMER, MOISTER SUBTROPICAL
AIR MASS SETTLES INTO THE AREA BENEATH A BROAD, LOW-AMPLITUDE Z500
RIDGE ALOFT. THIS PERIOD SHOULD BE MARKED BY STEADILY WARMING
TEMPERATURES (WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S ON MONDAY, CLIMBING INTO THE 60S
BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY) AND DRY CONDITIONS. THE MUTED NATURE OF
THE RIDGE MAY PERMIT SOME MOISTURE TO RIDE ACROSS IT, AND THE
GENERAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE AIR MASS AS A WHOLE
MEANS THAT SKIES SHOULD BE PARTLY CLOUDY AT BEST FOR MOST OF THIS
PERIOD.
BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, A COMPACT SOUTHERN-STREAM TROUGH ORIGINATING
IN THE CHIHUAHUAN DESERT WILL ARRIVE IN THE CAROLINAS, USHERING IN
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AHEAD OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT. WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...PRODUCING LIMITED QPF RESPONSE AND
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ENTIRELY RAIN AT ALL BUT THE HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE
BLUE RIDGE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL SIGNIFICANTLY BEHIND THAT
FRONT, WHICH WILL USHER BACK IN A COOLER POLAR AIR MASS. A
REINFORCING COLD FRONT ARRIVING SOMETIME THURSDAY WILL FURTHER
ENTRENCH COLD AIR ACROSS THE REGION ONCE AGAIN, BRINGING
TEMPERATURES BACK TOWARD OR EVEN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. A SECOND
ROUND OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WOULD APPEAR TO
HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SNOW, MAINLY AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE
MOUNTAINS, BUT ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE AND
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME SCALE.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE, EXCEPT KAVL: VFR EXPECTED AT ALL
TERMINALS. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE GUSTY WINDS. A LULL IN GUSTS
POSSIBLE IN THE PIEDMONT THIS EVENING, BUT PICKING UP OUT OF THE
NW BY AROUND 4Z AND CONTINUING THRU SATURDAY AFTN. STRONG GUSTS OF
25-30 KT POSSIBLE OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS AT TIMES, BEFORE STARTING
TO WEAKEN LATE AFTN.
AT KAVL: STILL EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20-25 KT WITH GUSTS 35-40
KT FROM LATE TONIGHT THRU MID-AFTN. PREVAILING VFR IS EXPECTED,
BUT IF ANY SNOW SHOWERS MANAGE TO REACH THE AIRPORT, THE CEILING
COULD TEMPORARILY DROP TO MVFR. THIS WILL BE HANDLED WITH A PROB30
THIS EVENING. WIND WILL REMAIN GUSTY NW THROUGH THE PERIOD.
OUTLOOK: DRY, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS INTO SATURDAY EVENING, BUT WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF EAST
OF THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR GAZ010-017.
NC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR NCZ035>037-048-051-
052-056>059-062-068>072-502-504-506-508-510.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR NCZ033-
048>050.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR NCZ033-049-050-
053-063>065-501-503-505-507-509.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM SATURDAY TO 7 AM EST SUNDAY
FOR NCZ033-048>052-059.
SC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR SCZ008-101>106-108-
109.
ARK/MPR/PM
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