817
FXUS62 KGSP 051819
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
219 PM EDT WED AUG 5 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.
UPDATED THE AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 18Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
1. ABOVE-AVERAGE RAIN CHANCES AND BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE THE REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. ISOLATED
FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA EACH DAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.
2. A RETURN TO SEASONABLY HOT CONDITIONS AND TYPICAL COVERAGE
OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS IS EXPECTED STARTING
SUNDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: ABOVE-AVERAGE RAIN CHANCES AND BELOW-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THE REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA EACH DAY
THROUGH SATURDAY.
A WEAK UPPER LOW THAT HAS BEEN SPINNING INVOF NORTHERN GA IS FINALLY
STARTING TO OPEN UP INTO A WEAK TROUGH THAT WILL LINGER JUST TO OUR
WEST. THE TROUGH WILL BE REINFORCED/MERGED WITH A DIGGING LONGWAVE
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY. THIS
WILL COMBINE WITH A PERSISTENT BERMUDA HIGH TO KEEP A DEEP-LAYERED
SWLY FLOW AND ELEVATED PWATS ATOP THE FORECAST AREA THRU THE
END OF THE WEEK. MOIST PROFILES AND WEAK SHEAR WILL KEEP SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES LOW. HOWEVER, EFFICIENT RAIN RATES AND SLOW
STORM MOTIONS WILL LEAD TO AN ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD THREAT FROM THIS
AFTN THRU SATURDAY, MAINLY DURING THE TYPICAL PEAK-HEATING/DIURNAL
CYCLE. HIGHS WILL BE A CATEGORY OR TWO BELOW NORMAL UNDER PLENTY
OF CLOUD COVER AND LOWS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
KEY MESSAGE 2: A RETURN TO SEASONABLY HOT CONDITIONS AND TYPICAL
COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS IS EXPECTED
STARTING SUNDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
LARGE SUBTROPICAL UPPER RIDGE STARTS TO BUILD WEST FROM THE ATLANTIC
OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, THEN BECOMES FLATTENED
BY UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE GREAT LAKES TO THE MID-ATLANTIC BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING LOW-LEVEL FLOW MORE
OUT OF THE WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST AND USHER IN SLIGHTLY DRIER
AIR INTO THE REGION. OVERALL, TEMPS WILL RETURN TO NORMAL SUNDAY
AND A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY THRU MIDWEEK. DIURNAL
CONVECTION SHOULD RETURN TO NEAR TYPICAL EARLY-MID AUGUST LEVELS,
WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED ELSEWHERE. A FEW PULSE SEVERE STORMS AND LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAIN WILL LIKELY BE A THREAT EACH DAY. THE MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL
RESULT IN HEAT INDICES PUSHING INTO THE UPPER 90S TO LOWER 100S
EACH AFTN ACROSS MOST OF THE PIEDMONT.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH SOME EMBEDDED
GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND
WESTERN UPSTATE, WITH MORE ISOLATED COVERAGE SO FAR TO THE EAST.
GIVEN THE ENVIRONMENT, EXPECT COVERAGE TO PEAK LATE AFTN INTO
EARLY EVENING. WILL GO WITH VCSH AND TEMPO TSRA AT ALL SITES,
EXCEPT PROB30 AT KCLT, WHERE CONFIDENCE IS LOWER. CONVECTION
SHOULD WANE BY LATE EVENING. VERY MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE WILL
SET UP ANOTHER NIGHT OF STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE
AREA. GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREEMENT ON WIDESPREAD LOW-MVFR TO
IFR CIGS AROUND OR SLIGHTLY BEFORE DAYBREAK, WITH AREAS OF FOG
IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS, PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. STRATUS
WILL GRADUALLY LIFT AND SCATTER TO VFR AGAIN LATE MORNING TO EARLY
AFTN ON THURSDAY. SIMILAR, IF NOT GREATER, COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTN. WILL ADD A PROB30 FOR KCLT,
GIVEN THE HIGH CONFIDENCE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT, MAINLY OUT OF THE
SOUTH, EXCEPT VRB AROUND THUNDERSTORMS.
OUTLOOK: SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED EACH DAY THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH ASSOCIATED FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS. PATCHY FOG AND LOW STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH
MORNING, ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AND ANYWHERE THAT
RECEIVED SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL THE PREVIOUS DAY/EVENING.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
ARK
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