649
FXUS62 KGSP 092242
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
542 PM EST MON FEB 9 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE AVIATION DISCUSSION WAS UPDATED TO REFLECT THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON THE DETAILS OF POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION
ON FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. IN GENERAL, THOUGH, THE FORECAST
HAS TRENDED WARMER FOR THE LOW TERRAIN, KEEPING SNOW AND/OR ICE
MAINLY CONFINED TO THE NC MOUNTAINS.
KEY MESSAGES
1. DRY WEATHER AND A WARMING TREND CONTINUES THROUGH TUESDAY.
2. NEXT SHOT OF RAIN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY, FOLLOWED BY A BRIEF DRY
SPELL AND SOME COOLING ON THURSDAY.
3. ACTIVE WEATHER RETURNS FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH A NONZERO
CHANCE OF WINTRY WEATHER FOR AT LEAST PART OF THE AREA.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: DRY WEATHER AND A WARMING TREND CONTINUES THROUGH
TUESDAY.
A FLAT UPPER RIDGE TO OUR WEST WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EASTWARD
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY, SUPPORTING HIGH PRESSURE THAT MOVES OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST THIS AFTERNOON. THE TEMPS APPEAR TO BE ON TRACK
FOR THIS AFTERNOON, WITH A NICE REBOUND BACK TOWARD NORMAL AS
SKY BECOMES SUNNY ACROSS THE REGION. DEWPOINTS ARE NOT ON TRACK,
THOUGH, AND IT WOULD APPEAR THAT DEEPER MIXING WAS FORCING THE
DEWPOINT DOWNWARD LATE THIS MORNING. THIS TREND INTO THE AFTERNOON
SUGGESTS THAT OUR RH VALUES WILL ALSO DROP LOWER THAN PLANNED,
PROBABLY INTO THE MID/UPPER 20S PERCENT. FORTUNATELY, WIND WILL BE
LIGHT. FOR TUESDAY, WE STILL EXPECT SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER TEMPS THAN
WHAT WE'VE HAD FOR THE PAST FEW WEEKS, WITH MANY LOCATIONS EAST
OF THE MTNS REACHING INTO THE 70S. WON'T THAT FEEL NICE...BUT NOT
NEARLY CLOSE TO RECORDS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE LATEST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT THE LEADING EDGE OF PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT
SYSTEM WILL REMAIN TO OUR WEST THROUGH SUNSET.
KEY MESSAGE 2: NEXT SHOT OF RAIN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY, FOLLOWED BY A
BRIEF DRY SPELL AND SOME COOLING ON THURSDAY.
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN IS ANTICIPATED TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS
A WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. GUIDANCE IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT RAIN WILL DEVELOP ACROSS APPALACHIA DURING THE
PREDAWN HOURS...ALBEIT WITH FAIRLY LITTLE QPF RESPONSE...BEFORE THE
BOUNDARY SLIDES ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY. GIVEN
THE ORIENTATION OF THE FRONT AND ONLY PREFRONTAL WEAK MOISTURE
ADVECTION, ORIGINATING OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY, IT'S QUESTIONABLE
HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE ABLE TO POOL EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS AS THE
FRONT ARRIVES. INDEED, THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE AS WELL AS MANY
OF THE MID-RANGE ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO DEPICT LOW POP EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS...AND SO WHILE THE UPSTATE CAN EXPECT A BRIEF SHOT OF 20-
30% RAIN CHANCES...PORTIONS OF THE NC PIEDMONT MAY RECEIVE LITTLE
MORE THAN SOME DRIZZLE.
THE FRONT SHOULD SAG SOUTH OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY EVENING, AND A
LOWER-THETA-E AIR MASS ASSOCIATED WITH BROAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
GREAT LAKES WILL SLOWLY FILTER INTO THE AREA BEHIND IT. AS A
RESULT, EXPECT MARKEDLY COOLER TEMPERATURES THURSDAY MORNING THAN
WEDNESDAY, AND FOR HIGHS TO BE A CATEGORY OR SO COOLER ON THURSDAY
THAN WEDNESDAY. IN THE LATEST ROUND OF 12Z GUIDANCE, THE GREAT
LAKES HIGH IS DEPICTED AS MAKING LITTLE EASTWARD PROGRESS THROUGH
THURSDAY, RESULTING IN WEAKER CAA AND LESS DRYING THAN IN PREVIOUS
FORECASTS, BUT GIVEN LITTLE FORCING ALOFT, THURSDAY SHOULD
NONETHELESS BE A DRY DAY FOR THE AREA.
KEY MESSAGE 3: ACTIVE WEATHER RETURNS FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH
A NONZERO CHANCE OF WINTRY WEATHER FOR AT LEAST PART OF THE AREA.
LONG-RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM,
PROGGED TO ARRIVE ON FRIDAY. THERE'S STILL NOT MUCH CONSISTENCY IN
THE OPERATIONAL MODELS, WITH THE LATEST RUNS OF THE THE GFS, ECMWF,
AND GDPS ALL DEPICTING A MUCH SLOWER ARRIVAL OF THE UPPER ENERGY
NEEDED FOR OUR SYSTEM TO DEVELOP. WHERE PRIOR MODEL RUNS CLEARLY
DEPICTED INTENSIFICATION OF A SURFACE LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT
PLAINS ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY, RESULTING IN ONSET OF MOIST
UPGLIDE OVER THE CAROLINAS SOMETIME FRIDAY...THE BULK OF GUIDANCE
NOW DELAYS CYCLOGENESIS UNTIL WELL INTO THE DAY FRIDAY (OR FAILS
TO DEPICT IT AT ALL, AS IN THE NEW GFS'S SOLUTION)...RESULTING IN
A DRIER FORECAST FOR FRIDAY AND ONSET OF PRECIPITATION MORE INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY, WHEN THE SURFACE LOW REALLY GETS GOING.
EVEN THEN, MOST OF THE EUROPEAN AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLES NOW DEPICT
THE LOW TRACKING ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH BUT LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD
WELL BEFORE ARRIVING IN THE CAROLINAS, RESULTING IN OVERALL WARMER
PROFILES ALOFT THAN IN PRIOR CYCLES. PAIR THIS WITH A GENERALLY
WARMER SURFACE FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND, AND WE WOULD BE LOOKING AT
A RAINIER FORECAST OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY,
WITH LESS CHANCE FOR SNOW/ICE.
THE KEY WORD HERE IS "WOULD" HOWEVER - UNTIL WE START TO SEE SOME
SEMBLANCE OF RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY, WE WON'T FEEL GREAT ABOUT
WHAT WE'RE SEEING. 24 HOURS AGO THERE WAS AMPLE SUPPORT FOR SNOW
OR ICE OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS, AND 24 HOURS BEFORE THAT, WE WERE
MORE OR LESS WHERE WE ARE NOW. THE TRACK OF THE LOW REMAINS A
BIG QUESTION MARK, AND WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY AS WE GET
CLOSER TO THIS EVENT. CONFIDENCE IS A GOOD BIT HIGHER THAT WE WILL
INDEED SEE PRECIPITATION, SO EVEN IF IT'S WARM ENOUGH THAT WE GET
AN ALL-RAIN FORECAST FOR THE LOW TERRAIN...WE DO INDEED EXPECT
TO GET AT LEAST A GOOD WETTING RAIN OVER THE WEEKEND. FOR THE
MOUNTAINS, CONDITIONS STILL LOOK MORE FAVORABLE FOR LOW-END SNOW
OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS, MAINLY ON SLOPES AND PEAKS.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD AT ALL TERMINALS. HIGH CLOUDS MAY GRADUALLY RETURN TO
PORTIONS OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW, BUT WILL BE OF NO
IMPACT. OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM OVERNIGHT AND
GENERALLY OUT OF THE SOUTH. WINDS PICK UP THROUGH THE MORNING AND
SHIFT TO OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. LOW-END GUSTS MAY BECOME COMMON
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AT MOST TERMINALS,BUT SHOULD REMAIN AT OR
BELOW 25KTS.
OUTLOOK: MOISTURE WILL RETURN TUESDAY NIGHT, WHICH COULD RESULT
IN LIGHT RAIN AND SOME CEILING RESTRICTIONS LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. A SECOND PERIOD OF MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AND
RESTRICTIONS COULD RETURN FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MPR/PM/TW
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