155
FXUS62 KGSP 141814
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
214 PM EDT TUE APR 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO FORECAST TRENDS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. KEY
MESSAGES WERE REORDERED SIMPLY TO BETTER EXPLAIN OUR THINKING.
KEY MESSAGES
1. HOT AND DRY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR
DAILY RECORDS. A COLD FRONT MAY BRING SOME RAINFALL TO OUR AREA
ON SUNDAY, BUT ANY ACCUMULATION IS LIKELY TO BE TOO SMALL TO
IMPROVE DROUGHT CONDITIONS. NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
2. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS CONTINUE AMID A DRY AND STAGNANT WEATHER
PATTERN. A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 8 PM TUE
FOR THE NORTH CAROLINA PIEDMONT AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA. CRITICALLY
LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS LIKELY TO OCCUR EACH OF THE NEXT SEVERAL
AFTERNOONS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: HOT AND DRY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
NEAR DAILY RECORDS. A COLD FRONT MAY BRING SOME RAINFALL TO OUR
AREA ON SUNDAY, BUT ANY ACCUMULATION IS LIKELY TO BE TOO SMALL
TO IMPROVE DROUGHT CONDITIONS. NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ANOMALOUSLY DEEP RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE COASTAL
SOUTHEAST THRU THURSDAY, WITH BERMUDA HIGH EXTENDING INLAND
AT THE SURFACE. 500MB HEIGHTS GRADUALLY TREND HIGHER THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY, PEAKING ABOVE THE 95TH PERCENTILE OF CLIMO, WHILE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES IN LOW LEVELS. TEMPS TREND WARMER THRU
WEDNESDAY. SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN A VERY DRY PROFILE, AND
LAPSE RATES UNFAVORABLE FOR ANY DEEP DIURNAL CONVECTION ANYWAY. A
SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH A MIDWEST CYCLONE WILL LEAD TO A BRIEF
PERIOD OF HEIGHT FALLS LATE THURSDAY AND BRING A VERY WEAK FRONT
UP TO THE APPALACHIANS, LEADING TO SOMEWHAT MORE FAVORABLE LAPSE
RATES AND MOISTENING ALOFT NEAR THE TN/NC BORDER AROUND THURSDAY
EVENING. MODEL QPF RESPONSE IS MINIMAL BUT THE THERMODYNAMIC
CHANGES CAN JUSTIFY SLIGHT-CHANCE POPS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE BORDER;
IF PRECIP DEVELOPS AT ALL ONLY A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF RAIN ACCUM
COULD BE EXPECTED AT THAT TIME. THOUGH THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE
WILL LEAD TO LOWER HEIGHTS OVER OUR AREA FRIDAY, IT TURNS WINDS
DOWNSLOPE IN LOW LEVELS, AND WITH NO AIRMASS CHANGE EXPECTED,
THAT PLUS FURTHER MODIFICATION SHOULD LEAD TO STILL WARMER MAX
TEMPS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WARMING TREND SHOULD CONTINUE SATURDAY AS
THE SW FLOW REGIME REDEVELOPS BY THEN.
NBM BIAS CORRECTION APPEARS TO BE LOWERING THE OPERATIONAL NBM
MAX TEMPS SUCH THAT THEY FALL BELOW THE 25TH PERCENTILE OF THE
NBM DISTRIBUTION, BUT EVEN THE OPERATIONAL NBM VALUES ARE WITHIN
A DEGREE OR TWO OF DAILY RECORDS. RECENT DAYS WE'VE TIED DAILY MAX
TEMP RECORDS, THE ECMWF EXTREME FORECAST INDEX FOR MAXT HAS PEAKED
ABOVE 0.9 IN OUR CWA, AND THE SHIFT-OF-TAILS HAS EXCEEDED 1. THESE
EFI/SOT CRITERIA ARE MET EACH DAY WED-SAT, GIVING CONFIDENCE THAT
RECORDS COULD AT LEAST BE TIED AT ONE OR MORE OF OUR CLIMATE SITES
(CLT, GSP, AVL) AT SOME POINT IN THAT PERIOD. HIGH-MIN RECORDS
COULD BE IN JEOPARDY ALSO, THOUGH THE GENERALLY CLEAR AND DRY
NIGHTS MAKE THAT A BIT MORE QUESTIONABLE WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING
LIKELY TO BE BETTER THAN AVERAGE.
A SUBSTANTIALLY STRONGER TROUGH WILL INDUCE CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS BY FRIDAY, AND SHOULD BRING A COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE LOWER MS VALLEY THRU SATURDAY, AND THEN ACROSS OUR CWA EARLY
SUNDAY. A NARROW MOISTURE PLUME IS PROGGED TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT
INTO OUR AREA ALONG WITH MODEST UPPER DIVERGENCE. THE MAJOR GLOBAL
MODELS BASICALLY HAVE MAINTAINED CONSISTENCY WITH THEIR EARLIER RUNS
IN THEIR DEPICTIONS OF PRECIP ALONG AND EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS;
THE 14/12Z GFS DID INCREASE QPF SLIGHTLY OVER THE PIEDMONT THOUGH
THAT MODEL OVERALL HAS BEEN DRIER THAN CONCURRENT RUNS OF THE
ECMWF. LIKEWISE EC ENSEMBLE PROBS OF ANY MEASURABLE (> 0.01")
RAINFALL ARE HIGHER THAN FROM THE GEFS; NEITHER ENSEMBLE SUGGESTS
MUCH POTENTIAL FOR 0.10" FOR THE PIEDMONT. THUS FOR NOW WE CONTINUE
TO EXPECT LITTLE TO NO IMPROVEMENT IN EITHER SOIL OR FUEL MOISTURE
FROM THE FRONT AND THUS NO LASTING RELIEF FROM EITHER DROUGHT OR
FIRE DANGER. COOLER, NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
DO LOOK TO RESULT BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A FREEZE IS
POSSIBLE IN SOME PORTIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 2: FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS CONTINUE AMID A DRY AND
STAGNANT WEATHER PATTERN. A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT
THROUGH 8 PM TUE FOR THE NORTH CAROLINA PIEDMONT AND NORTHEAST
GEORGIA. CRITICALLY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS LIKELY TO OCCUR EACH
OF THE NEXT SEVERAL AFTERNOONS.
EVEN WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUING OVER THE AREA FROM THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY, THE SOURCE AIRMASS OVER THE GULF AND
DEEP SOUTH IS SUBSIDENT AND DRY. MIXING DEPTH WILL BE LIMITED BY
POOR LAPSE RATES ALOFT, THOUGH DURING PEAK HEATING THE TOP OF THE
BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD REACH INTO EXCEPTIONALLY DRY MIDLEVEL AIR, SO
DEWPOINTS SHOULD DIP SEVERAL DEGREES EACH AFTERNOON. COUPLED WITH
UNUSUALLY WARM, EARLY SUMMER-LIKE TEMPERATURES, RELATIVE HUMIDITY
IS LIKELY TO DIP BELOW 30 PERCENT IN MANY AREAS OVER THE NEXT FEW
AFTERNOONS, PARTICULARLY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. BREEZY AFTERNOON
WINDS MAY EXHIBIT A FEW GUSTS TO NEAR 20 MPH, AND OBJECTIVE
METEOROLOGICAL CRITERIA FOR INCREASED FIRE DANGER STATEMENTS COULD
BE MET AT LEAST ON A LOCAL SCALE. EVEN WHERE NOT MET OBJECTIVELY,
THE COMBINATION OF NEAR-CRITICAL RH AND WIND WITH DRY VEGETATION
WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH OF A CONCERN FOR POTENTIAL WILDFIRE DEVELOPMENT,
SO DAILY FIRE DANGER PRODUCTS REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE REST
OF THIS WEEK.
THE FIRE DANGER STATEMENT FOR THE NORTH CAROLINA PIEDMONT WAS
IN COORDINATION WITH THE NORTH CAROLINA FOREST SERVICE AND IS IN
EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM TODAY (TUESDAY). THE FIRE DANGER STATEMENT FOR
NORTHEAST GEORGIA IS FOR ONGOING DRY FUELS AND RH VALUES GETTING
CLOSE TO THE CRITICAL THRESHOLD OF 30%. THE FIRE DANGER STATEMENT
FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA IS ALSO IN EFFECT THROUGH 8 PM TODAY.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: FEW-SCT LOW-VFR CUMULUS THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY
NEAR THE APPALACHIANS, WARRANTING A MENTION AT KAVL AND KHKY. ASIDE
FROM THOSE, JUST FEW CIRRUS OR SKC THRU THE PERIOD. AS FAR AS WINDS,
EXCEPT FOR KAVL, PREDOMINANTLY SW WITH A FEW GUSTS OF 15-20 KT
THIS AFTN. WINDS LARGELY TURN LIGHT AND MAY EVEN GO CALM/VRB IN
THE VERY EARLY MORNING. KAVL INSTEAD MAY SEE VRB THIS AFTERNOON
AS OFTEN OCCURS IN LIGHT SW FLOW, WITH NW LIKELY FOR A TIME LATE
TONIGHT. GIVEN SLOW SETUP OF DAYTIME WIND REGIME AND LIGHT SPEEDS,
JUST WENT VRB AT KAVL LATE WED MORNING.
OUTLOOK: VFR PREVAILS INTO THE WEEKEND. A FEW LOW VFR CLOUDS,
AND PERHAPS STRAY SHRA, ARE POSSIBLE LATE THU OR THU NIGHT OVER
THE APPALACHIANS.
CLIMATE
RECORDS FOR 04-14
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 86 2006 36 1907 62 1922 24 1950
KCLT 89 1941 46 1907 69 1922 27 1950
KGSP 92 1916 48 1901 67 1922 22 1907
RECORDS FOR 04-15
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 89 1972 42 1943 64 1887 23 1907
KCLT 89 1936 46 1889 66 2006 28 1907
KGSP 91 2006 45 1913 69 1922 22 1907
RECORDS FOR 04-16
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 87 2006 42 1905 62 1945 26 1943
KCLT 89 2006 49 1890 64 1998 29 2008
1896 1991 1962
1945
KGSP 88 1888 54 1903 64 1945 24 1907
RECORDS FOR 04-17
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 89 1896 45 1890 63 1927 26 1904
KCLT 94 1896 47 1890 66 1896 30 2018
1949
KGSP 92 2006 51 1904 63 1927 25 1905
RECORDS FOR 04-18
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 90 1896 44 1921 60 1927 28 1905
1891
KCLT 93 1896 45 1983 66 1896 32 2001
KGSP 89 2002 51 1983 66 1927 28 1905
1967
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...INCREASED FIRE DANGER UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GAZ010-
017-018-026-028-029.
NC...INCREASED FIRE DANGER UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ036-
037-056-057-068>072-082.
SC...NONE.
JCW
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