854  
FXUS62 KGSP 021130  
AFDGSP  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC  
630 AM EST FRI DEC 2 2022  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK, WITH A  
WETTER PATTERN OSCILLATING THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE MAJORITY  
OF NEXT WEEK, AS A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA.  
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER FOR THE WEEKEND AND BEGIN TO WARM BY THE  
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
 
 
AS OF 630 AM EST FRIDAY: HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE AREA EARLY  
THIS MORNING WILL SLIDE OFF SHORE THROUGH THE DAY. THE REMAINING  
SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE AREA WEAKENS TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES  
INTO THE OH VALLEY. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SPREAD OVER THE AREA AS LOW  
CLOUDS SLOWLY INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH WITH THE DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY  
LOW LEVEL FLOW. HIGHS WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.  
 
THERE ARE SOME WEAK SHORT WAVES THAT MOVE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT IN  
THE NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT; HOWEVER, THE MAIN FORCING THAT DEVELOPS  
TONIGHT WILL BE UPSLOPE FLOW AND ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE COLD  
FRONT. THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS IS FOR ONLY SPOTTY PRECIP THIS EVENING  
WITH BETTER PRECIP CHANCES SPREADING IN OVERNIGHT AS THE MOISTURE  
BECOMES DEEPER. QPF WILL BE LIGHT. WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP  
ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AS H85 WINDS INCREASE, BUT THEY SHOULD  
REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVEL. LOWS WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE  
NORMAL.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
 
 
AS OF 226 AM FRIDAY: A PERSISTENT AREA OF UPPER HIGH PRESSURE  
CONTINUES TO CHURN OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND EXTENDS W-E. TO THE  
NORTH, A SURFACE LOW STRENGTHENS OVER ONTARIO WITH AN ASSOCIATED  
COLD FRONT REACHING THE SOUTHERN CONUS. UPPER ZONAL FLOW WILL  
DOMINATE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THIS PERIOD WITH THE FROPA  
SWEEPING THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY. SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW DRAWS  
MOISTURE IN AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND LEADS TO A RELATIVELY SATURATED  
UPPER AIR PROFILE AS INDICATED BY GFS MODEL GUIDANCE. PRECIPITATION  
IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CWA ON SATURDAY, WITH LIKELY POPS SATURDAY  
MORNING IN THE WESTERN CAROLINA MOUNTAINS AND CHANCE POPS IN THE  
PIEDMONT. RAIN WILL QUICKLY MOVE OUT OF THE AREA AND SHOULD BE DONE  
SATURDAY NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT  
AND MOVES EASTWARD ON SUNDAY, BUT GULF MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE  
ADVECTED INTO THE AREA FROM THE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH.  
MEANWHILE, A SURFACE LOW OVER KANSAS EXTENDS A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE  
SOUTHERN STATES, PROVIDING SOME LIFTING FOR ANOTHER POSSIBLE ROUND  
OF RAIN STARTING SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES DURING  
THIS FORECAST PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN A BIT ABOVE CLIMO ON  
SATURDAY, 60S FOR THE HIGHS AND 40S IN THE PIEDMONT WITH 30S IN THE  
MOUNTAINS. A RETURN TO NEAR CLIMO ON SUNDAY AS HIGHS DIP INTO THE  
50S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
 
 
AS OF 227 AM FRIDAY: A CONTINUATION OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST, THIS  
FORECAST PERIOD REMAINS RATHER WET FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA.  
SYNOPTICALLY, AN UPPER HIGH REMAINS THE DOMINATE FEATURE OVER THE  
GULF OF MEXICO. A SEMI-ZONAL PATTERN ALSO REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHERN  
CONUS, WITH MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES ADVANCING THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY  
AND WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE NECESSARY LIFT FOR SHOWERS,  
HOWEVER, GIVEN THE MINIMAL INSTABILITY AVAILABLE PER MODEL GUIDANCE,  
PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN NON-CONVECTIVE. HIGH PWAT VALUES NEARING  
1.5 INCHES, TOGETHER WITH DEEP LEVEL MOISTURE PROFILES FROM GFS AND  
ECMWF SOUNDING GUIDANCE, SHOULD ALLOW FOR MULTIPLE DAYS OF  
PRECIPITATION. CONTINUING FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY  
MORNING, LIKELY POPS FOR THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA AND  
SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR THE PIEDMONT IS EXPECTED. FOR THURSDAY, THERE  
EXIST SOME DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECWMF GUIDANCE ON A  
SURFACE LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. THIS  
COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWARD COULD CONTINUE THE RAIN CHANCES FOR  
THE AREA, HENCE CHANCE POPS FOR THE ENTIRE CWA WERE INCLUDED FOR THE  
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. GENERALLY, EXPECT A WETTER PATTERN  
FOR NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE CLIMO, WITH  
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEING THE WARMEST AS TEMPS CREEP UP INTO THE  
UPPER 60S. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO REMAIN WELL ABOVE CLIMO.  
AMPLE CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE WEEK WILL AID IN  
INSULATING THE AREA AND LEAD TO MUCH WARMER NIGHT TEMPS, WITH LOWS  
IN THE 40S AND 50S FOR MOST OF THE AREA.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
 
 
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY  
ALTHOUGH SOME LOW VFR CIGS POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON. MVFR CIGS  
DEVELOPING DURING THE EVENING WITH IFR CIGS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. HIGH  
PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA TODAY AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES  
FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT. MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE STREAM OVER  
THE AREA TODAY WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON AND  
EVENING. CALM TO LIGHT NE WIND THIS MORNING BECOMES LIGHT S TO SE  
BY AFTERNOON. LLWS DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AS AN H85 JET  
TRANSITS THE AREA.  
 
OUTLOOK: LOW CLOUDS AND PRECIP CHANCES CONTINUE THRU SATURDAY, AS  
THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. SOME CLEARING IS POSSIBLE ON  
SUNDAY, AS THE FRONT SETTLES SOUTH OF THE REGION, HOWEVER UNSETTLED  
WEATHER RETURNS LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.  
 

 
   
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
GA...NONE.  
NC...NONE.  
SC...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...CP  
NEAR TERM...RWH  
SHORT TERM...CP  
LONG TERM...CP  
AVIATION...RWH  
 
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