543
FXUS62 KGSP 071824
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
224 PM EDT FRI AUG 7 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FOR THIS FORECAST CYCLE.
KEY MESSAGES
1. SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY, POSING A CONTINUED THREAT OF ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING AND
PERHAPS A COUPLE OF PULSE SEVERE STORMS PRODUCING MICROBURSTS.
2. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB BACK ABOVE NORMAL ON EARLY NEXT
WEEK, AFTER WHICH IT WILL BE HOT AND HUMID EACH DAY THROUGH
MID-WEEK. SOME PIEDMONT LOCATIONS COULD HAVE AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX
BETWEEN 99-103 BEGINNING MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY, POSING A CONTINUED THREAT OF ISOLATED
FLASH FLOODING AND PERHAPS A COUPLE OF PULSE SEVERE STORMS PRODUCING
MICROBURSTS.
CONVECTION IS STEADILY INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AIR MASS, WHILE ACTIVITY OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS HAS SO FAR BEEN VERY
SPOTTY. CONVECTION-ALLOWING GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT THIS
TREND OF CONVECTION BEING HEAVILY MOUNTAIN-CENTRIC WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS MAKES SENSE, AS STEERING CURRENTS ARE
LARGELY PARALLEL TO THE MOUNTAINS, UPPER RIDGING ASSOCIATED WITH A
WESTERN ATLANTIC ANTICYCLONE IS STEADILY BUILDING WESTWARD, AND THE
ATMOSPHERE OVER THE PIEDMONT IS A BIT DRIER THAN ON THURSDAY. STILL,
SBCAPE OF 2000+ J/KG AND LOW LFCS WARRANTS A TOKEN 20-30% CHANCE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE PIEDMONT. BUOYANCY IS ADEQUATE TO SUPPORT A
FEW PULSE STORMS PRODUCING STRONG-TO-SEVERE MICROBURSTS. STEERING
CURRENTS ARE BIT MORE BRISK (15-20 KTS) COMPARED WITH RECENT DAYS,
BUT SMALL SCALE AREAS OF CELL TRAINING AND/OR ANCHORING OF STORMS
ON TERRAIN FEATURES REMAIN POSSIBLE, POSING A CONTINUED THREAT OF
LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL/FLASH FLOODING.
THERE'S VERY LITTLE TO HANG ONE'S HAT ON IN TERMS OF NOTABLE CHANGES
TO THE OVERALL PATTERN AND ATMOSPHERIC REGIME ON SATURDAY/SUNDAY:
MODERATE AFTERNOON DESTABILIZATION AGAIN EXPECTED, AND SW STEERING
CURRENTS KEEPING THE BULK OF DIURNAL CONVECTION INITIATING OVER THE
HIGH TERRAIN BEING CONTAINED TO THE MOUNTAINS. HAVING SAID THAT,
GUIDANCE FEATURES A LITTLE MORE IN THE WAY OF ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT/FOOTHILLS SATURDAY, SO POPS ARE SLIGHTLY HIGHER SOUTHEAST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE. THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG-TO-SEVERE PULSE
STORMS AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE WITHIN A DEGREE OR SO
EITHER SIDE OF CLIMO.
KEY MESSAGE 2: TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB BACK ABOVE NORMAL ON EARLY
NEXT WEEK, AFTER WHICH IT WILL BE HOT AND HUMID EACH DAY THROUGH
MID-WEEK. SOME PIEDMONT LOCATIONS COULD HAVE AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX
BETWEEN 99-103 BEGINNING MONDAY.
THE ATTEMPT OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO REASSERT ITSELF OVER THE
REGION NEXT WEEK WILL BE SOMEWHAT THWARTED BY PERIODIC HEIGHT
FALLS PROGRESSING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CONUS. THE RESULT OF
THIS BATTLE WILL BE A GENERALLY FLAT UPPER FLOW PATTERN ATOP THE
SOUTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. NEVERTHELESS,
DEEP LAYER WSW FLOW WILL RESULT IN TEMPS CLIMBING 2-3 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL BY MONDAY...MORE OR LESS REMAINING THERE THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. DEWPOINTS WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS...PERHAPS
SLIGHTLY ABOVE...AND THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AFTERNOON HEAT
INDEX NEARING...POSSIBLY EXCEEDING 100 ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
PIEDMONT EACH AFTERNOON. HAVING SAID THAT, THE FORECAST PATTERN
IS NOT CONDUCIVE FOR A PROTRACTED EXCESSIVE HEAT EVENT, AND ANY
OCCURRENCE OF HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA BEING MET IS LIKELY TO BE
LOCALIZED AND BRIEF. TYPICAL MID-SUMMER DIURNAL CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
IS EXPECTED EACH DAY...GENERALLY SCATTERED ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
AND ISOLATED ELSEWHERE.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO
EXPAND ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON, WITH TEMPO TSRA
WARRANTED AT KAVL BEGINNING AT 18Z. STEERING FLOW FROM THE SW WILL
BRING SOME MOUNTAIN CONVECTION INTO THE NC FOOTHILLS DURING LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING, JUSTIFYING A PROB30 FOR TSRA AT KHKY.
PROB30S ARE ALSO CARRIED AT KGMU/KGSP, BUT THE LATEST HIGH
RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEPICT LITTLE-TO-NO
CONVECTION IN THE PIEDMONT, SO NO MENTION OF CONVECTION IS CARRIED
AT KAND/KCLT. CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY WILL AGAIN BE
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF LOW STRATUS AND/OR FOG, WITH THE BEST
CHANCES BEING IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS, AND IFR/TEMPO LIFR CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST AT KAVL BY DAYBREAK. SIGNALS FOR RESTRICTIONS ARE
WEAKER AT THE OTHER SITES, AND OTHER THAN MVFR VISBY AT KHKY, THE
POTENTIAL FOR RESTRICTIONS IS MERELY HINTED AT WITH SCT005 AT THE
OTHER SITES. SSW WINDS OF 5-10 KTS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON,
BECOMING LIGHT/VRBL OR CALM AFTER SUNRISE.
OUTLOOK: SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, WITH
ASSOCIATED FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. PATCHY FOG AND LOW STRATUS ARE POSSIBLE EACH MORNING,
ESPECIALLY IN THE MTN VALLEYS AND ANYWHERE THAT RECEIVED SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL THE PREVIOUS DAY/EVENING.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
JDL
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