380
FXUS62 KGSP 311027
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
627 AM EDT SUN MAY 31 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
PRECIP CHANCES HAVE BEEN INCREASED FOR TUE AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGES
1. COOLER AND DRY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY, WITH RAIN CHANCES
INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH AGAIN TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE POTENTIAL
FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE, WHILE A SLIGHT INCREASE
IN THE THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS IS EXPECTED MONDAY.
2. COOLER THAN NORMAL WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING MID-WEEK, WITH
A WARMING TREND EXPECTED BEGINNING THURSDAY. OTHERWISE, MOSTLY
DRY CONDITIONS FROM TUESDAY ONWARD.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: COOLER AND DRY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY, WITH RAIN
CHANCES INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH AGAIN TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE, WHILE A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN THE THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS IS EXPECTED MONDAY.
THE LEADING EDGE OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS PUSHED SOUTHWEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING, WHILE E/NE FLOW IS STRENGTHENING
IN RESPONSE TO AN INVERTED SURFACE RIDGE. THE ENE FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO STEADILY PUSH STABLE AIR INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING,
AND MUCH OF THE CWA WILL SEE CONDITIONS FREE OF PRECIP TROUGH THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AROUND THE SOUTHWEST AND
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE AREA, WHERE THE DRY AIR WILL NOT BE AS
DEEP, AND SOME INSTABILITY COULD BE REALIZED (MAINLY IN THE AREA
AROUND THEW SMOKIES.) EVEN IN THESE AREAS, POPS ARE ONLY IN THE
20-40% RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK INSTABILITY AND MEAN CLOUD-LAYER
WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KTS WILL LIMIT ANY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
POTENTIAL, BUT ISOLATED HEAVY RAIN IS STILL POSSIBLE. HIGH TEMPS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE 5-10 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO FROM THE FOOTHILLS/BLUE
RIDGE INTO THE SAVANNAH VALLEY, WHERE CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO
BE MORE PERSISTENT. DEEPER DRY AIR ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES SHOULD
RESULT IN HIGHS CLOSER TO NORMAL, WHILE HIGHS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
AND SURROUNDING VALLEYS BORDERING TN (DISPLACED FROM THE NE FLOW)
MAY SEE ABOVE-NORMAL MAX TEMPS.
THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF HEIGHT/LOW LEVEL PRESSURE FALLS IS FORECAST
TO APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE TN/OH VALLEY TONIGHT, WEAKENING
THE SURFACE RIDGE AND ALLOWING FLOW TO TURN TO THE SSW ACROSS THE
AREA THIS EVENING. A WEAK SURFACE WAVE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN TONIGHT. THIS WILL OCCUR CLOSE ENOUGH
TO THE CWA TO ALLOW POPS TO RAMP UP TO THE SOLID CHANCE-TO-LIKELY
RANGE TONIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THE
THREAT FOR LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ALONG WITH A LOW END FLASH
FLOOD THREAT WILL CONTINUE.
THE NEXT ROUND OF (MORE SUBSTANTIAL) HEIGHT FALLS FOR THE REGION IS
SLATED FOR MONDAY, WHEN A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
DIG SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES TOWARD THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. THIS
WILL ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION ACROSS OUR AREA
MON AFTERNOON, WITH POPS MOSTLY IN THE 50-60% RANGE ADVERTISED. WITH
THE LONG WAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO RETROGRADE FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC IN RESPONSE TO HEIGHT FALLS, MID-LEVEL WIND FIELDS/SHEAR
PARAMETERS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE SUFFICIENTLY TO SUPPORT A RISK
FOR SEVERE WEATHER MONDAY AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH EXPECTED MODEST
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO KEEP THE THREAT TO THE MARGINAL END OF
THE SPECTRUM. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 2: COOLER THAN NORMAL WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING MID-WEEK,
WITH A WARMING TREND EXPECTED BEGINNING THURSDAY. OTHERWISE,
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS FROM TUESDAY ONWARD.
SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD
INTO THE FORECAST AREA MON NIGHT INTO TUE UNDER ANOMALOUSLY LOW
HEIGHTS. DESPITE THIS, GUIDANCE IS ARRIVING AT MORE OF A CONSENSUS
THAT SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP TUE AFTERNOON AS COLD TROUGH
ALOFT PASSES OVER THE REGION. POPS MOSTLY IN THE 30-40% RANGE ARE
ADVERTISED DURING THIS TIME. DRY CONDITIONS ARE OTHERWISE FORECAST
FOR MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS GENERAL SURFACE RIDGING
PERSISTS WITH MODEST-AT-MOST MOISTURE RECOVERY ANTICIPATED. TEMPS
ARE FORECAST TO BE 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED
NIGHT BEFORE RECOVERING TO NEAR-NORMAL BY THURSDAY. THE STEADY
WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPS FORECAST BY NEXT SATURDAY.
AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: MVFR CIGS ARE EXPANDING ACROSS MAINLY THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE TERMINAL FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. EXPECT
MVFR CIGS AT THE UPSTATE SC TERMINALS AND KAVL THROUGH AT LEAST
THE MORNING. LOCATIONS FARTHER WEST (I.E., KAND AND PERHAPS KGMU)
MAY STAY MVFR THROUGH THE DAY, WHILE ONLY MODEST IMPROVEMENT TO THE
LOWER END OF VFR IS EXPECTED AT KAVL AND KGSP THIS AFTERNOON. KCLT
AND KHKY SHOULD SEE LOW VFR CIGS THIS MORNING...LIFTING TO 050 OR
HIGHER DURING EARLY AFTERNOON. SOME SCATTERING IS POSSIBLE AT THOSE
SITES OUT AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON.
ENE WINDS AROUND 10 KTS...SLIGHTLY HIGHER WITH SOME GUSTS AT
THE UPSTATE TERMINALS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL STEADILY
WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...BECOMING LIGHT ESE DURING THE
AFTERNOON, THEN LIGHT/VARIABLE DURING THE EVENING. MOISTURE WILL
MAKE YET ANOTHER RETURN INTO THE AREA TONIGHT, WITH PROB30S FOR SHRA
AND LOWERING CIGS ENTERING THE FORECASTS (EXCEPT AT KHKY) DURING
SUNDAY EVENING. ALL SITES ARE EXPECTED TO SEE MVFR CIGS DEVELOP
BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. IFR IS POSSIBLE AT THE UPSTATE TERMINALS.
OUTLOOK: SHOWER AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES REMAIN ELEVATED
INTO MONDAY. ANOTHER ROUND IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY, BUT THIS IS MORE
UNCERTAIN. A DRIER PATTERN SHOULD SET UP BY WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORKWEEK.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
JDL
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