775
FXUS62 KGSP 272346
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
746 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED THE AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
1. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT BEFORE TRACKING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO RETURN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, KEEPING
THE ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORM THREAT AND ISOLATED FLASH
FLOOD THREAT AROUND.
2. A FRONT STALLS JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA, KEEPING MAINLY DIURNAL
RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DRIER AIR MAY FINALLY WORK INTO
THE ENTIRE AREA FROM THE NORTH BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT BEFORE
TRACKING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO RETURN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, KEEPING
THE ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORM THREAT AND ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD
THREAT AROUND.
HEIGHT FALLS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL WORK TO
FLATTEN THE UPPER FLOW ATOP THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
CONVECTION SHOULD LARGELY WANE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS BUT A
FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER NEAR THE TN BORDER OVERNIGHT, WITHIN WEAK
WESTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW. AS THE UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS ALONG THE EAST
COAST ON THURSDAY, A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. THE LATEST GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED DRIER WITH THE FRONT,
PUSHING IN DRY AIR FROM THE NORTH AND SHOWING A NW'LY DOWNSLOPE LOW-
LEVEL FLOW ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
STILL EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT. UP TO 2000 J/KG OF SBCAPE ACROSS THE UPSTATE
AND NE GA MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A STORM OR TWO TO BECOME SEVERE. BUT
OVERALL, THE THREAT WILL REMAIN LOW. THERE WILL ALSO BE A MARGINAL
RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL/FLASH FLOODING, BUT TRENDS IN THE
GUIDANCE HAVE BEEN TRENDING DOWN. OTHERWISE, TEMPS WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH ELEVATED HUMIDITY.
KEY MESSAGE 2: A FRONT STALLS JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA, KEEPING MAINLY
DIURNAL RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DRIER AIR MAY FINALLY
WORK INTO THE ENTIRE AREA FROM THE NORTH BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
THE 12Z DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES REINFORCING AN UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE EAST
COAST, EVENTUALLY CLOSING OFF INTO A LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE
NORTHEAST US BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A COUPLE OF IMPULSES WILL
EJECT OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, AS AN UPPER RIDGE GETS PINCHED
OFF OVER THE MIDWEST TO THE TN VALLEY. THE FIRST WAVE WILL HELP
ACTIVATE A STALLED FRONT JUST TO OUR SOUTH FRIDAY, BRINGING A ROUND
OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW STORMS INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN PART
OF THE CWFA FRIDAY EVENING. A CAD-LIKE PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE,
WITH MORE STABLE AIR ACROSS MOST OF THE CWFA. SO CONFIDENCE REMAINS
LOW ON HOW MUCH POPS WILL REALLY BE ABLE TO EXPAND NE OVERNIGHT. A
LACK OF BETTER FORCING SUGGESTS THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT SHOULD REMAIN
LOW. BUT A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL HAS BEEN EXPANDED
INTO THE SW THIRD OF THE CWFA. THE FRONT LIFTS FURTHER NORTH INTO
THE AREA SATURDAY, RESULTING IN ANOTHER ACTIVE CONVECTIVE DAY THAT
LIKELY WILL PERSIST INTO SUNDAY.
THE FINAL SHORTWAVE THAT ROTATES THRU THE MEAN EAST COAST TROUGH
WILL CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT, KEEPING RAIN CHANCES THRU THE
NIGHT. MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON A DEEPENING
TROUGH AND A GOOD PUSH OF DRY AIR FROM THE NORTH MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. THIS MAY FINALLY GIVE US A BREAK FROM THE ABOVE NORMAL
RAINFALL MOST OF THE REGION HAS BEEN SEEING. THE LATEST NBM HAS
A GRADUAL DECREASING POP TREND MONDAY THRU WEDNESDAY. TEMPS WILL
ALSO TREND DOWN A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL, WITH DEWPTS POSSIBLY INTO
THE 40S AND 50S, MAKING IT FEEL PLEASANT FOR EARLY JUNE.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: MOSTLY DRY AND VFR THROUGH THE 00Z TAF PERIOD
OUTSIDE OF MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG/STRATUS AT KAVL AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED TSRA THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. HAVE A TEMPO AT KAVL FOR
MVFR TO IFR VSBY FROM 08Z-13Z THURSDAY. KAVL AND KHKY ARE LEAST
LIKELY TO SEE TSRA DEVELOP THURSDAY AFTERNOON SO MAINTAINED DRY
CONDITIONS AT THESE TERMINALS. ELSEWHERE, HAVE PROB30S FOR TSRA AS
CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER. WINDS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL START OUT
WSW/SW THIS EVENING BEFORE GRADUALLY TURNING NW AFTER DAYBREAK
THURSDAY. WINDS WILL THEN TURN NE EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD GO CALM TO LIGHT AND VRB ACROSS THE SC
UPSTATE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WINDS AT KAVL WILL START
OUT CALM TO LIGHT AND VRB, PICKING UP OUT OF THE NW/NNW OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK: THE PATTERN REMAINS UNSETTLED THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH AT
LEAST SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION EXPECTED EACH DAY. VSBY AND CIG
RESTRICTIONS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT ESPECIALLY IN AREAS
THAT RECEIVE HEAVY RAINFALL.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
AR/ARK
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