721
FXUS62 KGSP 041023
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
623 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED THE AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 12Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
1. DANGEROUS HEAT CONTINUES EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE
INDEPENDENCE DAY WEEKEND BEFORE THE HEAT GRADUALLY WANES NEXT
WEEK. THOSE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND SHOULD
PREPARE FOR ELEVATED HEAT RISK. STAY HYDRATED, TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS
IN AIR-CONDITIONED OR SHADED AREAS, AND NEVER LEAVE CHILDREN OR
PETS UNATTENDED IN VEHICLES.
2. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS
ARE EXPECTED MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY,
WITH CHANCES INCREASING FOR ALL AREAS SUNDAY INTO MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK. PER USUAL, A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE
DURING PEAK HEATING HOURS, WITH THE MAIN HAZARD BEING DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS. MAKE SURE YOU HAVE MULTIPLE WAYS TO RECEIVE WARNINGS,
ESPECIALLY IF YOU HAVE OUTDOOR PLANS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: DANGEROUS HEAT CONTINUES EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS
THROUGH THE INDEPENDENCE DAY WEEKEND BEFORE THE HEAT GRADUALLY
WANES NEXT WEEK. THOSE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
SHOULD PREPARE FOR ELEVATED HEAT RISK. STAY HYDRATED, TAKE FREQUENT
BREAKS IN AIR-CONDITIONED OR SHADED AREAS, AND NEVER LEAVE CHILDREN
OR PETS UNATTENDED IN VEHICLES.
DESPITE THE BREAK DOWN OF THE UPPER ANTICYCLONE, UPPER RIDGING WILL
REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE SHIFTING SOUTH
OF THE CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS
WILL ALLOW OPPRESSIVELY HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS TO LINGER THROUGH
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. DEWPOINTS WILL MIX DOWN INTO THE LOWER TO MID
60S FOR MOST LOCATIONS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. ALTHOUGH THESE LOWER DEWPOINTS MAY PREVENT SOME
LOCATIONS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS FROM REACHING TRUE HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA (WHICH STARTS AT 105 DEGREES), THE "IMPACT-BASED" HEAT
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 8 PM EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS
AS MANY OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES AND EVENTS WILL TAKE PLACE IN HONOR OF
INDEPENDENCE DAY. ALTHOUGH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER (RELATIVELY SPEAKING), DEWPOINTS WILL NOT
MIX OUT AS MUCH. THUS, ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR SOME,
IF NOT ALL, LOCATIONS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING.
ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL FINALLY ABATE NEXT WEEK, HIGHS EAST OF
THE MOUNTAINS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER TO MID 90S
EACH DAY. UNFORTUNATELY, THE HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE NEXT WEEK
DESPITE THE RETURN OF "COOLER" AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES THANKS TO
DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S EACH AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGE 2: ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS
ARE EXPECTED MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY, WITH
CHANCES INCREASING FOR ALL AREAS SUNDAY INTO MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. PER
USUAL, A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE DURING PEAK
HEATING HOURS, WITH THE MAIN HAZARD BEING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. MAKE
SURE YOU HAVE MULTIPLE WAYS TO RECEIVE WARNINGS, ESPECIALLY IF YOU
HAVE OUTDOOR PLANS.
ALTHOUGH COVERAGE OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO ONCE AGAIN BE BEST
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TODAY, THE 00Z CAMS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
SCATTERED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINA
PIEDMONT/FOOTHILLS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO LATE THIS EVENING AS THE
UPPER RIDGE RETREATS SOUTHWARD. IF ACTIVITY MANAGES TO SURVIVE LONG
ENOUGH, CONVECTION COULD EVEN MAKE INTO THE EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA
UPSTATE LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. SINCE
CONFIDENCE IS MUCH LOWER REGARDING CONVECTION SURVIVING INTO THE
UPSTATE TONIGHT, ONLY ADDED A 20% POP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH
CAROLINA PIEDMONT AND FOOTHILLS FOR NOW. CONFIDENCE ON CONVECTION
DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA PIEDMONT/FOOTHILLS IS LOW,
ESPECIALLY WITH THE 06Z NAMNEST COMING IN DRY. HOWEVER, THE 06Z HRRR
STILL SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE
NORTH CAROLINA PIEDMONT/FOOTHILLS. HOPEFULLY WE WILL GET A CLEARER
PICTURE ONCE THE 12Z CAMS COME IN LATER THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE,
COVERAGE OF MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL INCREASE FOR ALL AREAS
SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE REMAINS SOUTH OF THE CAROLINAS
AND AS PERSISTENT, WEAK UPPER TROUGHING DEVELOPS ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS. AS WE TYPICALLY SEE DURING PULSE CONVECTION SEASON, A FEW
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING PEAK HEATING HOURS
EACH DAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK. DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE THE MAIN HAZARD
WITH ANY SEVERE STORMS THAT DEVELOP.
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: DRY AND VFR THROUGH THE 12Z TAF PERIOD
OUTSIDE OF MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG/LOW STRATUS AND AFTERNOON/EVENING
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. ONCE AGAIN FOG
AND STRATUS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE IT TO KAVL OVERNIGHT. SHRA/TSRA
CHANCES REMAIN TOO LOW FOR A MENTION AT KAVL. WINDS WILL REMAIN CALM
TO LIGHT AND VRB THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS FOR MOST TERMINALS. WINDS
WILL PICK OUT OUT OF THE S/SW EARLY THIS AFTERNOON INTO LATE THIS
EVENING, ALTHOUGH KAVL MAY SEE VRB WINDS DEVELOP BRIEFLY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN GO CALM TO LIGHT AND VRB LATE THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT ACROSS MOST TERMINALS. KCLT WILL SEE S/SW'LY
WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. CIRRUS WILL CONTINUE STREAMING OVER THE
TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, WITH A FEW CUMULUS DEVELOPING
DURING PEAK HEATING HOURS TODAY. CANNOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT SOME
ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA NEAR KCLT LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING
BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAF.
OUTLOOK: MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WILL EXPAND TO ALL TERMINALS STARTING SUNDAY, LINGERING INTO MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK. LOW STRATUS AND/OR FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH MORNING,
MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.
CLIMATE
RECORDS FOR 07-04
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 97 1948 68 1976 70 2016 51 1986
KCLT 99 1993 70 1968 76 1993 55 1933
1955
KGSP 100 1993 70 1988 75 2018 58 2021
1996
1933
RECORDS FOR 07-05
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 96 1948 71 1976 70 2024 46 1967
2018 1933
KCLT 101 2024 66 1892 78 2024 57 1967
KGSP 101 2024 70 1976 78 2016 58 1967
1933
1892
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
GAZ018-026-028-029.
NC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-502-504-506-508-510.
SC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
SCZ008>014-019-104>109.
AR
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