695
FXUS62 KGSP 021051
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
651 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED THE AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 12Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
1. DANGEROUS HEAT CONTINUES TO BUILD THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO
THE INDEPENDENCE DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND, WITH HEAT INDICES LIKELY
REACHING OR EXCEEDING 105 DEGREES ACROSS MUCH OF THE PIEDMONT AND
FOOTHILLS. ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE TODAY. DAILY
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.
2. THE HEAT THREAT BEGINS TO WANE LATE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH A RETURN TO A MORE TRADITIONAL MID SUMMER PATTERN
FEATURING SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND DAILY STORM CHANCES.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: DANGEROUS HEAT CONTINUES TO BUILD THROUGH THE WEEK AND
INTO THE INDEPENDENCE DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND, WITH HEAT INDICES LIKELY
REACHING OR EXCEEDING 105 DEGREES ACROSS MUCH OF THE PIEDMONT AND
FOOTHILLS. ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE TODAY. DAILY
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.
AN ANTICYCLONE AND ASSOCIATED UPPER RIDGE HAS SET UP SHOP OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS WITH ANOMALOUSLY WARM THICKNESSES. THE RIDGE WILL
GRADUALLY PROPAGATE EASTWARD THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. AS A
RESULT, EXPECT VERY HOT TEMPERATURES WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S EACH DAY THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY ACROSS
THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. A FEW LOCATIONS MAY APPROACH 102-104
DEGREES FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS. MOUNTAINS VALLEYS WILL BE HOT AS WELL
WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S, WITH LOW TO MID 80S
AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.
THE CONTINUED FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IS HOW MUCH DEWPOINTS MIX OUT EACH
DAY DURING PEAK HEATING AND HOW THAT IMPACTS HEAT INDICES. VERTICAL
PROFILES CONTINUE TO SUPPORT VERY WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYERS
THAT EXTEND TO AT LEAST 750-700MB, POSSIBLY HIGHER FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. IN THIS CASE, DEWPOINTS WILL MIX OUT INTO THE UPPER
50S TO LOW 60S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, WHICH COULD KEEP HEAT INDICES
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA DESPITE VERY HOT AIR TEMPERATURES. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FOR THIS AFTERNOON INDICATE LINGERING MOISTURE IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER AND DON'T MIX OUT AS MUCH AS IT IS ANTICIPATED FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL BE ENOUGH TO PROMOTE A HEAT ADVISORY
FOR ALL OF THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT OF THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND
NORTHEAST GEORGIA WITH DEWPOINTS FORECAST TO REMAIN MOSTLY IN THE
UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S DURING PEAK HEATING. THE HEAT ADVISORY WILL
RUN FROM NOON TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING. THOSE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS,
INCLUDING HOLIDAY AND RECREATION, SHOULD PREPARE FOR SEVERAL
DAYS OF ELEVATED HEAT RISK. STAY HYDRATED, TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS
IN AIR-CONDITIONED OR SHADED AREAS, AND NEVER LEAVE CHILDREN OR
PETS UNATTENDED IN VEHICLES.
DAILY AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS EXPECTED FOR THE MOUNTAINS
TODAY THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY WHERE TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT
WILL HELP TO INITIATE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. CAMS HAVE BEEN MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH TODAY'S
CONVECTION AND PRODUCES MORE COVERAGE OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS,
MAINLY OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA FOOTHILLS, UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA,
AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA AS CONVECTION POTENTIALLY BECOMES OUTFLOW
DRIVEN. DESPITE THE COMPRESSED ATMOSPHERE WITH VERY WARM AIR ALOFT,
DEEP INSTABILITY (3000-4000+ J/KG OF SBCAPE), STEEP LAPSE RATES,
AND LARGE DCAPE WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED INSTANCES OF STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND
WITH THE TYPICAL MID SUMMER ENVIRONMENT, CAN'T RULE OUT A COUPLE
STORMS BECOMING STRONG TO SEVERE.
KEY MESSAGE 2: THE HEAT THREAT BEGINS TO WANE LATE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A RETURN TO A MORE TRADITIONAL MID SUMMER
PATTERN FEATURING SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND DAILY STORM CHANCES.
THE UPPER RIDGE THAT WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE PROLONGED HEAT
THIS WEEK WILL GRADUALLY BREAK DOWN AND SHIFT OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC BY LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN RESPONSE,
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S, WHICH IS AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY JULY. AS A RESULT, TRIPLE DIGIT
HEAT INDICES SHOULD BE HELD IN CHECK OUTSIDE OF THE SOUTHERN
AND EASTERN ZONES. TEMPERATURES REMAIN HOT FOR SUNDAY AND COULD
SUPPORT ANOTHER DAY OF DANGEROUS HEAT, BUT WILL BE DEPENDENT ON
HOW MUCH MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND THE EXTENT OF
AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION AND DEBRIS. DEEPENING UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS WILL SEND WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
DOWNSTREAM INTO THE AREA WITH MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF WEAK EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVES, WHILE INCREASING MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE GULF AND
ATLANTIC SETS THE STAGE FOR MORE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS DIURNAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
CAN'T BE RULED OUT EACH DAY WITH LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL AS THE PRIMARY THREATS.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG/LOW STRATUS FELL SHORT OF REACHING
KAVL, SO TOOK OUT THE TEMPO FOR THE 12Z UPDATE. ANY MOUNTAIN VALLEY
FOG/LOW STRATUS WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE AFTER SUNRISE. AFTERNOON CU
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN AT ALL TERMINALS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH MORE OF THE
ACTIVITY POSSIBLY PUSHING OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS. AS A RESULT,
PLACED A PROB30 FOR TSRA AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS FOR THE UPSTATE
TERMINALS AND KAVL DURING PEAK HEATING. ANY CONVECTIVE DEBRIS SHOULD
SCATTER OUT LATER THIS EVENING. ANOTHER ROUND OF MOUNTAIN VALLEY
FOG/LOW STRATUS IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK: DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND, MAINLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. MOUNTAIN
VALLEY FOG/LOW STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH MORNING.
CLIMATE
RECORDS FOR 07-02
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 93 1970 65 1943 70 2018 44 1988
1954
1931
KCLT 101 1931 64 1943 76 1991 56 2008
1970
1931
KGSP 101 1954 66 1943 77 1931 53 1899
RECORDS FOR 07-03
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 93 1970 65 1988 70 2018 50 2008
1897 1931 1937
1932
KCLT 99 1931 70 1988 76 1925 56 2010
KGSP 99 2016 70 1988 77 1925 56 1984
1970
1953
RECORDS FOR 07-04
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 97 1948 68 1976 70 2016 51 1986
KCLT 99 1993 70 1968 76 1993 55 1933
1955
KGSP 100 1993 70 1988 75 2018 58 2021
1996
1933
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
GAZ018-026-028-029.
NC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-502-504-506-508-510.
SC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
SCZ008>014-019-104>109.
CAC
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