338
FXUS62 KGSP 050539
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1239 AM EST WED NOV 5 2025
SYNOPSIS
DRY CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUE ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A PASSING COLD FRONT COULD BRING
RAIN SHOWERS TO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. A SECOND, STRONGER FRONT
MOVES THROUGH ON SUNDAY, USHERING IN MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 1225 AM EST WEDNESDAY: THE QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS TOWARD THE COAST.
FOR TODAY, A BROAD NRN STREAM WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH A DRY FRONT TOWARD OUR REGION FROM THE WNW. WARM
ADVECTION FROM THE SW WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB ABOUT FIVE DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL THIS AFTERNOON UNDER DEEP MIXING. STRONGER FLOW ALOFT
IN RESPONSE TO THE WAVE WILL SPREAD OVER THE REGION DURING PEAK
HEATING, ALLOWING FOR FREQUENT WIND GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON, THOUGH
NOWHERE NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS. EXPECT THE RH TO DROP AS DRY AIR MIXES
DOWN FROM ABOVE, THOUGH NOT AS DRY AS YESTERDAY. THIS WILL RAISE
THE POSSIBILITY THAT SOME LOCATIONS, PARTICULARLY ACROSS WESTERN NC,
COULD APPROACH CRITICAL RH AND WIND GUST CRITERIA, THOUGH CONFIDENCE
IS GREAT ENOUGH ONLY FOR A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT AT THIS TIME. THE
REST OF THE FCST AREA WILL BE MONITORED. THE FRONT, AS IT WERE,
SHOULD CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH LITTLE FANFARE. LOW TEMPS WILL
ALSO BE ON THE ORDER OF FIVE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 1205 AM EST WEDNESDAY: BY THURSDAY, THE WEATHER OVERALL
REMAINS QUIET TO START WITH A PATTERN FLIP TOWARDS THE END OF THE
SHORT TERM. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT STAYS IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
CONUS ON THURSDAY BEFORE A STRONG UPPER LOW DEVELOPS OVER NORTHERN
CANADA AND TRIGGERS AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES ON THURSDAY AND GETS SHOVED OFFSHORE AS AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE FORMS ACROSS THE NE CONUS. FROM THIS LOW, A COLD
FRONT MAKES A RUN FOR THE CWA ON FRIDAY. GUIDANCE INCREASES A TONGUE
OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH A RETURN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW. THIS
HELPS TO INCREASE PRECIP CHANCES, AT LEAST IN THE MOUNTAINS FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT. LATEST DATA PLACES THE HIGHER RAIN CHANCES IN THE
MOUNTAINS (60-85%) WITH A CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE (25-50%) ELSEWHERE.
THOUGH POPS HAVE INCREASED, THE QPF RESPONSE HAS SLIGHTLY DECREASED.
THE FURTHEST NC MOUNTAINS HAVE ABOUT A 15% CHANCE OF SEEING RAINFALL
AMOUNTS GREATER THAN 0.5", WHICH MEANS THERE ISN'T MUCH OF A SIGNAL
FOR THIS FRONT TO BRING MUCH PRECIPITATION. THE NARROW WINDOW OF
MOISTURE RETURN AND BETTER FORCING FURTHER NORTH OF THE CWA, HINDER
BETTER RAINFALL RATES. TEMPERATURES WARM A TAD ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE END OF THE SHORT TERM. OVERNIGHT TEMPS ALSO WARM AS THE ADDED
MOISTURE KEEPS FREEZING TEMPS AWAY FOR NOW.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 1210 AM EST WEDNESDAY: BY SATURDAY, REMNANT SHOWERS SHOULD BE
WRAPPING UP DURING THE MORNING AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. BEHIND
THE FROPA, DRIER AIR FOR THE REST OF SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. NOW,
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A STRENGTHENING UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL
CANADA AND AMPLIFYING TROUGH PIVOTING SOUTHWARD SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE, A STRONG CP AIRMASS SPILLS INTO THE CONUS
FROM CANADA, BRINGING COLDER TEMPS AND DRIER AIR INTO THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE U.S., INCLUDING THE SOUTHEAST. LONG RANGE MODELS SHOW A
POSSIBILITY FOR SOME SORT OF PRECIP AS THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME
LINGERING MOISTURE ALONG THE TN/NC BORDER, BUT IT'S WAY TOO EARLY TO
PINPOINT ANY DETAILS. THE MOST IMPACTFUL PART OF THIS AIRMASS ARE
THE POTENTIAL WIDESPREAD FREEZING TEMPERATURES. LATEST DATA BRINGS
IN THE COLDEST OVERNIGHT TEMPS OF THE SEASON WITH THE ENTIRE CWA
DROPPING BELOW FREEZING MONDAY NIGHT. EVEN THIS FAR OUT, CONFIDENCE
IS INCREASING FOR A WIDESPREAD FREEZE. DESPITE THE TEMPERATURES, THE
DRIER AIR KEEPS ANY FROZEN PRECIP CHANCES AT BAY OUTSIDE OF THE
HIGHER PEAKS IN THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO BE WARM AHEAD
OF THE COLDER AIRMASS AND PLUMMET WELL BELOW NORMAL TO START THE
WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. MAINLY A WIND FORECAST, COMPLICATED BY THE APPROACH OF
A COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST WHILE HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY DEPARTS
TO THE EAST. ALL TERMINALS WILL KEEP LIGHT WIND THRU DAYBREAK AT
LEAST. STRONGER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL
BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN FROM LATE MORNING ONWARD, LEADING TO FREQUENT
GUSTS FROM THE SW THRU THE BULK OF THE AFTERNOON. EVEN KAVL WILL GET
THE SW WIND IN THE AFTERNOON, LEADING TO A TRICKY CROSSWIND. ONCE
THE SUN SETS, THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD DECOUPLE AND WE LOSE THE
GUSTS, BUT THE FRONT WON'T PASS WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE W OR NW
UNTIL LATE EVENING. BEHIND THE FRONT, KAVL COULD HAVE PERIODS OF
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AFTER THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION FORMS.
OUTLOOK: EXPECT DRY, VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH
MTN VALLEY FOG/LOW STRATUS POSSIBLE EACH MORNING. TWO SEPARATE COLD
FRONTS CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BRINGING THE POTENTIAL
FOR PRECIPITATION, GUSTY WINDS, AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...INCREASED FIRE DANGER FROM 11 AM EST THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON FOR NCZ033-035>037-048>050-053-056-057-064-065-
068>072-082-501>510.
SC...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM...CP
AVIATION...PM
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page