905
FXUS62 KGSP 022338
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
738 PM EDT THU APR 2 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ADJUSTED TONIGHT'S FORECAST BASED ON LATEST TRENDS.
UPDATED FOR THE THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
KEY MESSAGES
1. WELL ABOVE NORMAL AND HUMID WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE DURING PEAK HEATING HOURS THROUGH SATURDAY.
2. COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY BRINGS THE BEST CHANCE
FOR RAINFALL FOR ANY TIME OVER THE NEXT WEEK.
3. FROST AND/OR FREEZE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS IN
THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: WELL ABOVE NORMAL AND HUMID WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE DURING PEAK HEATING HOURS THROUGH SATURDAY.
IT'S ONLY SPRING BUT THE EARLY SUMMERTIME PATTERN REMAINS IN FULL
SWING THANKS TO A BERMUDA HIGH CENTERED IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
EXTENDING OVER THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH SATURDAY. WITH LOW-LEVEL
SOUTHERLY FLOW REMAINING IN PLACE OVER THE REGION, WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL STICK AROUND. BREEZY WINDS
SHOULD HELP OFFSET THE HUMIDITY SOMEWHAT. HIGHS EACH AFTERNOON WILL
RUN 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH LOWS EACH NIGHT RUNNING 15-20
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. 12Z CAMS SHOW FAIRLY ANEMIC COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED
THROUGH FRIDAY, BEFORE POSSIBLY BECOMING MORE SCATTERED ON SATURDAY.
CONFIDENCE ON POPS REMAINS LOW ON SATURDAY AS THE 12Z NAMNEST IS NOT
EXCITED ABOUT COVERAGE. THE NBM CONTINUES TO BE WAY TOO BULLISH
REGARDING POPS ON SATURDAY SO LOWERED POPS TO CHANCE THIS FORECAST
CYCLE. IF LATER RUNS OF THE HRRR START TO LINE UP WITH THE 12Z
NAMNEST, POPS MAY NEED TO BE LOWERED FURTHER. SO, DON'T GET YOUR
HOPES UP FOR A WETTING RAIN ON SATURDAY, ESPECIALLY IF YOU LIVE EAST
OF THE MOUNTAINS.
KEY MESSAGE 2: COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY BRINGS THE BEST
CHANCE FOR RAINFALL FOR ANY TIME OVER THE NEXT WEEK.
A MATURING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES
LATE SATURDAY, WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT SUBSEQUENTLY BEING PULLED
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. STILL EXPECTING THE STRONGER DYNAMIC LIFT TO
REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE CWA. FRONTAL PRECIP PROBABLY WILL REACH
THE NC MOUNTAINS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, WITH CHANCES PEAKING LATER
IN THE DAY FROM WEST TO EAST. QPF FROM THE GFS AND EC ENSEMBLES
HAVE BOTH REMAINED ABOUT THE SAME OR INCREASED SLIGHTLY ON THE
LAST COUPLE OF RUNS; DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAVE GENERALLY TRENDED
SLIGHTLY UPWARD WITH QPF OVER A FEW CYCLES. SAW FIT TO MAINTAIN
CATEGORICAL POPS GENERATED BY NBM ON SUNDAY, THOUGH CAPPED VALUES
AT 80-90% OVER THE LOWER PIEDMONT WHICH WILL BE MORE PRONE TO
DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS AND PERHAPS WEAKER MOISTURE ADVECTION OWING TO
THE TIMING. PER LREF ENSEMBLE QPF, AT LEAST 0.50" TOTAL PRECIP LOOKS
LIKELY TO RESULT FROM THE FRONT IN THE SMOKY MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE TN BORDER FURTHER NORTHEAST IN OUR MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER,
THE CHANCE OF EVEN 0.25" PRECIP IS AROUND OR LESS THAN 50% IN THE
AREAS SOUTHEAST OF I-85.
THERE APPEARS A SMALL BUT NONZERO CHANCE FOR A LINE OF CONVECTION TO
MAKE A RUN FROM EAST TN INTO THE NC MOUNTAINS IN THE PREDAWN HOURS
SUNDAY, BUT WITH 0-3KM SHEAR VECTORS ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADIC CIRCULATIONS TO DEVELOP WITHIN A LINE. LAPSE RATES ARE
NOT VERY GOOD AND THE TIMING NOT FAVORABLE ANYWAY SO OUR SEVERE
THREAT WOULD APPEAR VERY LOW, BUT WORTH KEEPING AN EYE ON FOR
NOW. THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER FROPA TIMING ALLOWS POPS TO EXTEND LATER
INTO THE AFTERNOON SUNDAY EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS, AND SHOULD PERMIT
MORE TIME FOR DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION TO OCCUR THERE. NEVERTHELESS
CAPE LOOKS LIKELY TO PEAK AT LESS THAN 500 J/KG OVER MOST OF THE
PIEDMONT, GENERALLY CLOSER TO 100 J/KG. 0-3KM SHEAR LOOKS LIKELY
TO DECREASE TO 25 KT OR LESS AS THE BETTER INSTABILITY DEVELOPS,
SO THE SEVERE THREAT WOULD APPEAR EVEN LOWER AT THAT TIME/AREA.
DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL BEGIN FILTERING INTO THE CWA BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. MAXES THAT AFTERNOON SHOULD BE COOLER THAN SATURDAY,
BACK TO NEAR NORMAL IN THE MOUNTAINS BUT STILL A FEW ABOVE NORMAL
IN THE I-85 CORRIDOR.
KEY MESSAGE 3: FROST AND/OR FREEZE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THE
MOUNTAINS IN THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.
CONTINENTAL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH PRECIP CHANCES REMAINING NEAR ZERO
FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MIN TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT
FALL BACK TO AROUND NORMAL FOR EARLY APRIL. A FREEZE CAN'T BE RULED
OUT IN SOME HIGHER NORTHERN MOUNTAIN ELEVATIONS, THOUGH WITH GUSTY
WINDS THE LIKELIHOOD OF FROST IS RELATIVELY LOW. WINDS DIMINISH
MONDAY WHEN MAX TEMPS END UP SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. LIGHTER WINDS
MONDAY NIGHT SUGGEST FROST IS A BIT MORE LIKELY IN THE MOUNTAINS
WHEREVER TEMPS REACH THE MID-30S, BUT CONDITIONS COULD ALSO BE
TOO DRY. BY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, THE COOL PATTERN IS
REINFORCED AS UPPER TROUGH REACHES NEW ENGLAND, WITH 1030+ MB
HIGH FILLING IN BEHIND. THIS MAY RESULT IN A DRY ONSET CAD EVENT,
AND RESULTS IN A GREATER CHANCE OF A FREEZE FOR MUCH OF THE NC
MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES LOOK LIKELY TO REACH THE MID-30S IN THE
NC I-40 CORRIDOR BOTH TUE AND WED NIGHTS, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW
WHETHER THE SURFACE WILL BE MOIST ENOUGH FOR FROST.
THE FROST/FREEZE PROGRAM IS ACTIVATING ON APRIL 5 FOR THE MOUNTAIN
ZONES ALONG AND SOUTHWEST OF I-26 AND ALSO FOR THE NC PIEDMONT
I-40 CORRIDOR (GREATER MCDOWELL EAST TO ROWAN, AND NORTH). IT IS
ALREADY ACTIVE IN AREAS TO THE SOUTH.
WITH RESPECT TO FIRE WEATHER, RH LOOKS LIKELY TO DROP BELOW 30
PERCENT ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS,
THOUGH WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: SHOWERS HAVE ENDED AND CU SLOWLY DISSIPATING.
S TO SE WINDS SLOWLY DIMINISHING AS WELL. THESE TRENDS CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EVENING. GUIDANCE SHOWING AGREEMENT ON MVFR STRATOCU
DEVELOPING/MOVING IN BEFORE DAYBREAK WITH IFR STRATUS NEAR DAYBREAK.
LIFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THAT SAID, THE GUIDANCE IS UNSURE ON
WHETHER CIGS DEVELOP AT KAVL. HAVE GONE SCT FOR NOW TO SHOW THE
POTENTIAL. CIGS LIFT TO MVFR BY MID-MORNING BUT DON'T SCATTER OUT
UNTIL NOON OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER. ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION
POSSIBLE, BUT CHANCE TOO LOW FOR THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. WINDS PICK
BACK UP FROM THE S TO SW THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY.
OUTLOOK: ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH BETTER COVERAGE EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY AS COLD FRONT TRACKS ACROSS THE TERMINALS. DRY HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
AR/MPR/RWH
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