438
FXUS62 KGSP 161800
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
200 PM EDT THU APR 16 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE AVIATION FORECAST WAS UPDATED TO REFLECT THE RECENT 18Z TAF
ISSUANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
1. WARM, DRY, AND UNPERTURBED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY. FIRE WEATHER WILL REMAIN THE BIGGEST CONCERN DURING
THIS PERIOD, WITH A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT IN EFFECT FOR WESTERN
NORTH CAROLINA AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA.
2. BEHIND A COLD FRONT, SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOME FROST IS POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS
SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT, SO PRECAUTIONS MIGHT BE NEEDED TO PROTECT
SENSITIVE PLANTS. THE AIR MASS WILL ALSO BE DRY, BRINGING A QUICK
RETURN TO LOW RH AND ENHANCED FIRE DANGER.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: WARM, DRY, AND UNPERTURBED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SATURDAY. FIRE WEATHER WILL REMAIN THE BIGGEST CONCERN
DURING THIS PERIOD, WITH A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT IN EFFECT FOR
WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA.
ALL QUIET ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS TODAY, WITH SOME VERY
ISOLATED CU DEVELOPING OVER THE BALSAMS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA, AND
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ELSEWHERE. AN ELONGATED TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM THE OZARK PLATEAU ALL THE WAY INTO MICHIGAN WILL PROVIDE THE
IMPETUS FOR ANY ACTIVE WEATHER WE RECEIVE OVER THE NEXT DAY AND A
HALF.
IN ALL LIKELIHOOD, THAT WON'T BE MUCH. A FAIRLY DRY AIR MASS
IS IN PLACE CURRENTLY, WITH 20+ DEGREE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
OBSERVED AT MANY OB SITES BEFORE WE HAVE EVEN REACHED PEAK MIXING.
TODAY'S FORECAST PROFILES ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA LOOK QUITE DRY,
WITH ENOUGH TURBULENT MIXING AT THE TOP OF THE PBL TO SUPPORT MIXING
BOTH LOWER DEWPOINTS AND HIGHER WIND GUSTS DOWN TO THE SURFACE.
CONSEQUENTLY, MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE NEAR-CRITICAL TO
CRITICAL RH THIS AFTERNOON, PAIRED WITH GUSTS UP OF 20 TO 25 MPH.
WITH AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 80S
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA, IT'LL BE ANOTHER AFTERNOON OF HOT AND
DRY WEATHER. IN COORDINATION WITH NEIGHBORING FORECAST OFFICES
AND LOCAL LAND MANAGERS, A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT WILL REMAIN
IN EFFECT THROUGH 8 PM THIS EVENING FOR ALL OF WESTERN NORTH
CAROLINA AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA. FOR THE SOUTH CAROLINA UPSTATE,
SCFC INDICATED FUELS ARE SUFFICIENTLY MOIST SO AS TO PRECLUDE THE
NEED FOR A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT. IT SEEMS LIKELY THAT ADDITIONAL
FIRE DANGER STATEMENTS WILL EVENTUALLY BE NECESSARY FOR FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY...WHICH SHOULD BOTH BE SIMILARLY HOT, DRY, AND BREEZY.
THIS EVENING, A LOOSELY-ORGANIZED BAND OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY AND MAKE A RUN AT THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS.
SADLY FOR THOSE WHO WERE HOPING FOR A LITTLE DROUGHT RELIEF,
THE MORNING HREF AND REFS MEMBERSHIP ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD FIZZLE OUT ONCE IT ARRIVES IN APPALACHIA.
A COUPLE SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS ARE WITHIN REASON - MAYBE EVEN A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER - BUT GENERALLY THINK THIS SHOULD BE LOW-IMPACT.
WITH EVEN THE HIGH-END GUIDANCE BARELY EKING OUT MORE THAN A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF QPF...IT LOOKS LIKE THIS WILL DO LITTLE
TO PUT A DENT IN ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS.
KEY MESSAGE 2: BEHIND A COLD FRONT, SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOME FROST IS POSSIBLE OVER THE
MOUNTAINS SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT, SO PRECAUTIONS MIGHT BE NEEDED TO
PROTECT SENSITIVE PLANTS. THE AIR MASS WILL ALSO BE DRY, BRINGING
A QUICK RETURN TO LOW RH AND ENHANCED FIRE DANGER.
UNFORTUNATELY, NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED FROM EARLIER THINKING WITH
REGARD TO THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT EXPECTED OVER THE MOUNTAINS
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY
MORNING. GUIDANCE WILL SHOW A ROBUST BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON, BUT WE STRONGLY
SUSPECT THAT IT WILL REACH THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY EVENING AND NOT
GET MUCH FARTHER THAN THAT, DASHING OUR HOPES FOR SOME RELIEF FROM
THE ONGOING DROUGHT. THE MODELS JUST DON'T SHOW THAT MUCH MOISTURE
RETURN FROM THE GULF AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT. AREAS ALONG
THE TN BORDER WILL BE THE LUCKY ONES AND SHOULD GET ENOUGH RAIN TO
NOTICE, BUT THE FRONT ORIENTATION AND TIME OF DAY ARE UNFAVORABLE
EAST OF THE MTNS. THE NEW MODEL BLEND QPF IS MOST DISAPPOINTING,
WITH ZERO RAIN OVER THE I-85 CORRIDOR AND SOUTH/EAST OF THERE. THE
DROUGHT WILL ONLY GET WORSE.
WHAT THE FRONT WILL DO IS BRING IN A MUCH COOLER AIR MASS THAT
WILL DROP TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN TO AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
FOR MID-APRIL, SO IT WILL ALMOST FEEL LIKE A CHANGE OF SEASONS
IN REVERSE. THAT RAISES THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME FROST/FREEZE
ISSUES OVER THE MOUNTAINS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT. THE
POST-FRONTAL PERIOD SUNDAY NIGHT COULD HAVE SOME BELOW FREEZING
TEMPS, BUT ONLY AT THE VERY HIGHEST OF ELEVATIONS (ABOVE 6K
FEET). MORE LIKELY WILL BE LOW TEMPS DOWN INTO THE MIDDLE 30S, EVEN
IN THE VALLEYS, BUT THERE COULD BE ENOUGH RESIDUAL NW FLOW TO KEEP
THE FROST FROM FORMING. THAT WON'T BE THE CASE ON MONDAY NIGHT, AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT COLLAPSES AND WE HAVE CLEAR SKY. FROST APPEARS
MOST LIKELY TO BE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS BY
DAYBREAK ON TUESDAY. FURTHER DEVELOPMENTS IN THE FORECAST TREND WILL
DETERMINE WHETHER OR NOT PEOPLE WILL HAVE TO TAKE ACTION TO PROTECT
SENSITIVE PLANTS. THE AIR MASS SHOULD MODIFY BY TUESDAY NIGHT,
NEGATING THE FROST THREAT. TEMPS WILL WARM FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER WILL PROBABLY ALSO BE A CONCERN ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY IN THE WEEK, AS AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS LIKELY TO
DROP DOWN BELOW 25 PERCENT AGAIN EVERY DAY MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY,
THOUGH WIND DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE CONCERNING AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: VFR CONTINUES THROUGH THE 18Z TAF PERIOD.
SW WINDS TO CONTINUE THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AT A STEADY
10-15KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25KTS. GUSTS SHOULD SUBSIDE THIS
EVENING, BUT WINDS WILL REMAIN SW @ 3-5KTS FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT.
A PROB30 WAS INTRODUCED AT KAVL LATE THIS EVENING, TO HIGHLIGHT
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS TO AFFECT THE AIRFIELD
ALONG AN ADVANCING WEAK COLD FRONT. AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE AREA
TONIGHT, MOST SITES WILL EVENTUALLY SEE WINDS TOGGLE TO THE NNW.
THIS WON'T LAST LONG HOWEVER...WITH DAYTIME MIXING LIKELY TO TURN
WINDS BACK AROUND TO THE SW FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK: VFR PREVAILS OVER THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT
MAY BRING RAIN CHANCES AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, MAINLY
ALONG THE NC MOUNTAINS.
CLIMATE
RECORDS FOR 04-16
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 87 2006 42 1905 62 1945 26 1943
KCLT 89 2006 49 1890 64 1998 29 2008
1896 1991 1962
1945
KGSP 88 1888 54 1903 64 1945 24 1907
RECORDS FOR 04-17
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 89 1896 45 1890 63 1927 26 1904
KCLT 94 1896 47 1890 66 1896 30 2018
1949
KGSP 92 2006 51 1904 63 1927 25 1905
RECORDS FOR 04-18
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 90 1896 44 1921 60 1927 28 1905
1891
KCLT 93 1896 45 1983 66 1896 32 2001
KGSP 89 2002 51 1983 66 1927 28 1905
1967
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...INCREASED FIRE DANGER UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GAZ010-
017-018-026-028-029.
NC...INCREASED FIRE DANGER UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ033-
035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-068>072-082-501>510.
SC...NONE.
MPR/PM
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