137
FXUS62 KGSP 050632
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
132 AM EST THU FEB 5 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH REGARDS TO SNOW PROBABILITIES OVERNIGHT AND
INTO THE MORNING ACROSS OUR NORTH CAROLINAS ZONES. LIGHT ACCUMULA-
TIONS REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH ROUGHLY DAYBREAK, WITH SPOTTY LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE ALSO POSSIBLE, MAINLY ALONG THE I-40 CORRIDOR.
A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT WAS ISSUED TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS AND/OR PATCHY BLACK ICE THROUGH THE MORNING.
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING ON SNOW SHOWER CHANCES ALONG THE TN BORDER
FRIDAY NIGHT, BUT LOW CONFIDENCE ON AMOUNTS AS THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO WAVER. NONETHELESS, A HIGH ELEVATION WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY
BE NEEDED.
CONFIDENCE ALSO INCREASING ON STRONG WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.
LOW AFTERNOON RH IS NOW LIKELY ON SATURDAY ESPECIALLY IN THE UPSTATE
AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA.
THE TEMPERATURE TREND CONTINUES TO BE VERY WARM FOR THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.
KEY MESSAGES
1. EXPECT BANDS OF MAINLY SCT LIGHT RAIN TO CONTINUE ACROSS OUR
AREA OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING. WE HAVE BEEN RECEIVING A
FEW REPORTS OF LIGHT SNOW ALONG THE THE I-40 CORRI- DOR OVER THE
PAST FEW HRS, HOWEVER ANY ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LESS THAN AN
INCH. ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION SHOULD DISSIPATE AS THE MORNING
WEARS ON, HOWEVER AREAS ROUGHLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-85 COULD
SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE THRU LATE MORNING.
2. SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE TN BORDER FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEHIND A COLD FRONT, WHICH COULD RESULT IN
SOME TRAVEL IMPACTS FRIDAY NIGHT. VERY GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGH ELEVATIONS OF THE NC MOUNTAINS LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING, WHICH COULD RESULT IN SCATTERED
POWER OUTAGES.
3. DRY SATURDAY WITH LOW AFTERNOON RH IN MANY LOCATIONS OUTSIDE
OF THE MOUNTAINS, WHICH MAY RESULT IN INCREASED FIRE DANGER. A
WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK,
WITH THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING IN WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: EXPECT BANDS OF MAINLY SCT LIGHT RAIN TO CONTINUE
ACROSS OUR AREA OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING. WE HAVE BEEN
RECEIVING A FEW REPORTS OF LIGHT SNOW ALONG THE THE I-40 CORRI-
DOR OVER THE PAST FEW HRS, HOWEVER ANY ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE
LESS THAN AN INCH. ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION SHOULD DISSIPATE
AS THE MORNING WEARS ON, HOWEVER AREAS ROUGHLY ALONG AND SOUTH
OF I-85 COULD SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE THRU LATE MORNING.
A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROF WILL SHARPEN AND DEEPEN OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY IN RESPONSE TO A STRENGTHENING
REX BLOCK OVER THE WEST COAST. THE NEARLY STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
OVER OUR AREA WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST THRU THE MORNING.
CAMS CONTINUE TO PICK UP ON THE TRANSITION FROM MOSTLY RAIN TO SNOW,
WITH VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATION OVER PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN PIEDMONT
AND FOOTHILLS OF NC, AS WELL AS THE NC MTNS. QPF WILL BE LIGHT AND
THE BETTER FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING WILL BE SITUATED MAINLY EAST OF
OUR FCST AREA. NONETHELESS, SOME SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SOME
AMOUNT OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AS PROFILES MAY NOT BE SATURATED ENOUGH
TO TAP INTO THE DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER AS TEMPERATURES FALL. COVERAGE
OF ANY FREEZING RAIN SHOULD BE VERY SPOTTY, THUS WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE
THAT AN ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED AND WILL LIKELY HANDLE ANY WINTRY
PRECIP WITH THE CURRENT HWO MENTION AND AN SPS. SFC TEMPERATURES
APPEAR TO HAVE CHANGED LITTLE IN THE LATEST GUIDANCE, THUS NO MAJOR
CHANGES WERE MADE TO PRECIP TYPES THRU THE MORNING.
THE UPPER TROF AXIS SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON
AS DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION, ENDING ANY LINGERING PRECIP
ACTIVITY. DESPITE CLOUDS SCT THIS AFTERNOON, WEAK CAA WILL HELP KEEP
HIGH TEMPERATURES ROUGHLY 6 TO 12 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TODAY, WITH
VALUES CLOSER TO NORMAL IN THE TYPICAL DOWNSLOPE LOCATIONS.
KEY MESSAGE 2: SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE TN
BORDER FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEHIND A COLD FRONT, WHICH
COULD RESULT IN SOME TRAVEL IMPACTS FRIDAY NIGHT. VERY GUSTY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGH ELEVATIONS OF THE
NC MOUNTAINS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING, WHICH COULD
RESULT IN SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES.
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT CONCERNING THE PASSAGE
OF A REINFORCING COLD FRONT LATE IN THE DAY ON FRIDAY, ASSOCIATED
WITH A CLIPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND, AND
OFF THE COAST SATURDAY. THE MODELS ALSO REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND NW UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE IS ALSO A RATHER POTENT SHORT
WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM AND POTENTIALLY SOME LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY. AS A RESULT, THE MODEL BLEND HAS SHOWN AN INCREASE IN
POP, QPF, AND SNOW AMOUNTS. A HIGH ELEVATION WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE TN BORDER COUNTIES. THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
WOBBLE BACK AND FORTH ON WHETHER ANY SNOW CAN BREAK CONTAINMENT AND
SPREAD ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT FRIDAY NIGHT. RIGHT NOW, IT
APPEARS THERE WILL BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIP OUTSIDE OF THE
USUAL NW FLOW AREAS.
THE NEW MODEL BLEND CONTINUES TO SHOW STRONG WIND POTENTIAL ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING AS THE 850MB
GRADIENT TIGHTENS. GUIDANCE SHOWS A BELT OF STRONG WINDS AT 850 MB
INTERSECTING THE MOUNTAINS AFTER 00Z SATURDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
GUSTS TO REACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA NOW ABOVE THE 50% RANGE. THIS
WILL BE MONITORED. ODDLY ENOUGH, THE WIND STILL DOESN'T APPEAR TO BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO PULL THE WIND CHILL DOWN COLD ENOUGH TO REACH COLD
WEATHER ADVISORY RANGE OUTSIDE OF THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.
KEY MESSAGE 3: DRY SATURDAY WITH LOW AFTERNOON RH IN MANY LOCATIONS
OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS, WHICH MAY RESULT IN INCREASED FIRE DANGER.
A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK,
WITH THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING IN WEDNESDAY.
AS WE DRY OUT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY, THE MODEL BLEND NOW
SHOWS LOW RH IN MOST LOCATIONS OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON, WITH A MINIMUM OF RH EXPECTED IN EXTREME NORTHEAST GA AND
THE WESTERN TIP OF SC. THE GUIDANCE NOW SHOWS RH LIKELY FALLS BELOW
30 PCT, WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF BELOW 25 PCT ACROSS THE UPSTATE AND NE
GA, SO WE WILL BE KEEPING AN EYE ON THE ENHANCED FIRE DANGER.
ORDINARILY, WE MIGHT NOT MENTION THE WEATHER BEYOND SATURDAY IN
OUR NEW WAY OF WRITING FORECAST DISCUSSIONS, BUT IN THIS CASE THE
WARMING TREND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK IS NOTABLE BECAUSE OF HOW
COLD IT HAS BEEN THE PAST FEW WEEKS. INDICATIONS STILL SHOW THE
BLOCKING PATTERN OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC WILL FINALLY BREAK DOWN
OVER THE WEEKEND AND ALLOW THE EASTERN UPPER TROF TO MOVE AWAY
OFFSHORE, WITH THE NRN STREAM RETREATING NORTHWARD AS THE UPPER
PATTERN FLATTENS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS. THE TREND IN THE MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO LOOK WARM, TO THE POINT WHERE WE HAVE TEMPS
CLIMBING INTO THE 10-15 DEGREE RANGE ABOVE NORMAL BY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. THIS IS GOING TO MAKE IT FEEL LIKE SPRING
HAS ARRIVED, BUT IT IS A BIT TOO EARLY TO GIVE UP ON WINTER JUST
YET. A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM MAY MOVE INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY,
BUT TEMPS STILL SUPPORT NOTHING BUT RAIN EVEN ACROSS THE NC
MOUNTAINS WITH SUCH WARM TEMPERATURES. THERE MIGHT EVEN BE A
THUNDERSTORM CHANCE ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION IF THE WARM TREND
CONTINUES.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: A MOIST FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO GRA-
DUALLY DRIFT SOUTH/EAST OVER OUR AREA AS WE HEAD INTO THE OVERNIGHT.
BANDS OF SCT SHOWERS CONTINUE TO LINGER OVER THE BLUE RIDGE ESCARP-
MENT AND ALONG THE I-40 CORRIDOR WITH SOME SITES REPORTING INTER-
MITTENT -SN. AS SUCH, I CANNOT RULE OUT SN OR PL MIXING IN WITH RA
AT KHKY AND KCLT OVERNIGHT, BUT MORE THAN LIKELY THEY WILL SEE MOSTLY
-RA. THERE IS ALSO SOME POTENTIAL FOR FZDZ AT THOSE SITES IF TEMPS
GET BELOW FREEZING BEFORE DRIER AIR WORKS IN AROUND DAYBREAK. CONFI-
DENCE REMAINS FAIRLY LOW ON HOW THE CIGS WILL EVOLVE OVERNIGHT AND
INTO THE MORNING AS THE DRY AIR WORKS IN BUT MOISTURE NEAR THE SFC
LINGERS. STILL EXPECTED CIGS TO REMAIN IFR AT MOST SITES WELL INTO
THE MORNING WITH LIFR LOOKING LESS LIKELY AT THIS TIME, BUT STILL
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY WITH PRECIP. CIGS SHOULD START TO
IMPROVE AFTER DAYBREAK FROM IFR TO MVFR, THEN SCT OUT BY THE EARLY
AFTERNOON TO VFR. WINDS WILL BE ROUGHLY 5 TO 10 KT OUT OF THE NE,
WITH A FEW LOW-END GUSTS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. WINDS BECOME MORE NNE
AND LIGHTER THIS AFTERNOON, EXCEPT AT KAVL, WHERE THEY FAVOR MORE OF
A NW DIRECTION. WINDS SHOULD GO LIGHT AND VRB TO CALM LATER TONIGHT
INTO EARLY FRIDAY.
OUTLOOK: DRY, VFR CONDITIONS RETURN FRIDAY AND ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THRU THE WEEKEND. GUSTY WINDS DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON
IN ASSOCIATION WITH A COLD FRONT AND LINGER ACROSS THE MTNS THRU
SATURDAY, BUT WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF EAST OF THE MTNS EARLY
SATURDAY.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
JPT/RWH
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