954
FXUS62 KGSP 061043
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
643 AM EDT MON APR 6 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE BASED ON THE 00Z GUIDANCE.
UPDATED FOR THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
KEY MESSAGES
1. THE THREAT OF PATCHY FROST REMAINS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT,
AND POSSIBLY EAST ACROSS THE I-40 CORRIDOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. PROTECTION OF SENSITIVE VEGETATION MAY BE REQUIRED IN
SOME LOCATIONS.
2. FIRE WEATHER WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE OF A CONCERN THROUGH
MID-WEEK AS A DRY AIR MASS SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION. OUTDOOR
BURNING COULD BECOME DANGEROUS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES, GUSTY WINDS, AND DRY FUELS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: THE THREAT OF PATCHY FROST REMAINS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
TONIGHT, AND POSSIBLY EAST ACROSS THE I-40 CORRIDOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. PROTECTION OF SENSITIVE VEGETATION MAY BE REQUIRED
IN SOME LOCATIONS.
COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL BE ON TAP TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT,
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. HIGHS TODAY WILL
BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL, AND LOWS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL
TONIGHT. DESPITE A WEAK, DRY COLD FRONT CROSSING THE MOUNTAINS
TONIGHT, THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS MAY DECOUPLE AND COOL DOWN ENOUGH
FOR SOME PATCHY FROST. NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO WARRANT A FROST
ADVISORY ISSUANCE THIS MORNING.
THE SITUATION ESSENTIALLY REMAINS UNCHANGED WITH REGARD TO THE
COOL AIR MASS THAT SETTLES OVER THE REGION BEHIND A REINFORCING
COLD FRONT THAT CROSSES THE REGION EARLY ON TUESDAY. THE LOW
TEMPERATURE FORECAST REMAINS SIMILAR TO THE LAST FEW MODEL CYCLES,
OR AT LEAST IT HASN'T REBOUNDED COOLER AT THIS POINT. THAT MEANS
FREEZING TEMPS ARE NO LONGER ON THE TABLE FOR ANYWHERE BUT ABOVE
6000 FEET IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NC MOUNTAINS, WHICH MEANS
THAT A FREEZE WARNING LOOKS UNLIKELY. NOTE THAT THE FROST/FREEZE
PROGRAM REMAINS INACTIVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF NC, SO
ALTHO SOME PARTS OF THE NRN MOUNTAINS MIGHT GET BELOW FREEZING
TUESDAY NIGHT, SPECIFICALLY PARTS OF AVERY COUNTY, A FREEZE
WARNING WOULD NOT BE ISSUED AND THE FCST WOULD BE ALLOWED TO
SPEAK FOR ITSELF. FROST STILL APPEARS TO BE WITHIN THE REALM OF
POSSIBILITIES EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING, BUT FOR NOW APPEARS TO BE
LOCALIZED TO PARTS OF THE LOWER TN RIVER VALLEY IN SWAIN COUNTY,
POSSIBLY BECAUSE THE AIR MASS LOOKS TOO DRY AND WIND STAYS MIXED
UP ENOUGH. THAT'S NOT EXACTLY THE CASE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT/EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING, AND THE FORECAST WILL REFLECT A BETTER CHANCE OF
FROST IN THE UPPER FRENCH BROAD VALLEY AND NORTHERN FOOTHILLS OF
NC. BY THAT TIME, THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BE LOCATED
OVER THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC REGION AND UPSTATE NY, SO WIND
OVER THE MTNS SHOULD BE LIGHTER IN SHELTERED VALLEYS. TOO EARLY
TO CONTEMPLATE FROST ADVISORIES FOR EARLY THURSDAY, THOUGH.
KEY MESSAGE 2: FIRE WEATHER WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE OF A
CONCERN THROUGH MID-WEEK AS A DRY AIR MASS SPREADS ACROSS THE
REGION. OUTDOOR BURNING COULD BECOME DANGEROUS BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON DUE TO LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES, GUSTY WINDS, AND
DRY FUELS.
BENEFICIAL RAIN ON SUNDAY SHOULD HELP KEEP FUEL MOISTURE HIGH ENOUGH
TODAY TO ALLEVIATE FIRE CONCERNS IN SPITE OF A DRIER AIR MASS MOVING
IN FROM THE WEST AS A WEAKENING SFC HIGH NOSES EASTWARD ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER, THE RH IS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE 25-30
PERCENT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON, AND A PARTLY
CLOUDY SKY AND LIGHT NW TO N WIND SHOULD PROVIDE THE OPPORTUNITY
FOR FUELS TO START TO DRY OUT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HOW QUICKLY
FUELS DRY OUT MAY DETERMINE THE FIRE DANGER. BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON,
EVEN THOUGH HIGH TEMPS WILL DROP COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS TWO
DAYS, THE LOW RH MIGHT BECOME MORE PROBLEMATIC IF FUELS DRY OUT
AS EXPECTED, BECAUSE OF BETTER POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS ABOVE
20 MPH. LAND MANAGERS WILL WANT TO KEEP TRACK OF THIS FORECAST
PROBLEM. ONCE THE SFC HIGH SHIFTS FARTHER OFFSHORE BY THURSDAY,
SOME ATLANTIC MOISTURE SHOULD BEGIN TO RETURN AND AFTERNOON RH
RISES ACCORDINGLY, WITH VALUES IN THE MIDDLE/UPPER 30S EXPECTED
EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. UNFORTUNATELY, NO RAIN IS IN SIGHT
FOR THE ENTIRE SEVEN DAY FORECAST PERIOD.
AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD,
WITH A STEADY STREAM OF MAINLY THIN CIRRUS OVER THE AREA. LIGHT
WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE PIEDMONT TODAY, ALTHOUGH A FEW LOW-END
GUSTS MAY BE POSSIBLE AT KCLT MID-MORNING AS MIXING DEEPENS. WINDS
BECOMING VARIABLE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT LATE AFTN THRU TONIGHT AT
KAVL, WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THRU THE DAY, BECOMING LIGHT AROUND
SUNSET. A WEAK FRONT WILL PUSH IN FROM THE NORTH TOWARD THE END
OF THE 12Z TAF PERIOD, WHICH WILL CAUSE WINDS TO PICK UP SLIGHTLY
OUT OF THE N OR NE.
OUTLOOK: SFC HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS OVER THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT AND LINGERS THRU THE MIDDLE OF WEEK, WITH DRY/VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THRU AT LEAST THURSDAY. EASTERLY FLOW MAY BRING SOME
RETURN OF LOWER CLOUDS LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
ARK/PM
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