696
FXUS62 KGSP 152309
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
709 PM EDT MON JUN 15 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MORE DETAILED INFORMATION ON POTENTIAL GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1. MILD AND RELATIVELY DRY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORKWEEK,
WITH TEMPERATURES COMFORTABLY BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY. RAIN CHANCES
REMAIN LOW OVERALL, BUT A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE LOWER
PIEDMONT TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
2. HUMIDITY AND RAIN CHANCES INCREASE THURSDAY, WITH PERIODS OF
RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS LIKELY AT TIMES BETWEEN THURSDAY EVENING AND
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONGER, DAMAGING
WINDS CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT EITHER OF THOSE DAYS. DRIER
AIR IS EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: MILD AND RELATIVELY DRY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WORKWEEK, WITH TEMPERATURES COMFORTABLY BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY. RAIN
CHANCES REMAIN LOW OVERALL, BUT A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
LOWER PIEDMONT TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
A FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED ACROSS SOUTH GA AND THE SC LOWCOUNTRY
INTO TUESDAY, BUT IS REACTIVATED LATE TUESDAY AS A PRONOUNCED
SHORTWAVE ROTATES INTO THE LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. WE SHOULD REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE
OF THE FRONT, AND FOLLOWING A COOL START TUE MORNING, TEMPS TOP
OUT 5-9 BELOW NORMAL, WITH RELATIVELY LOW HUMIDITY REPRESENTED BY
DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60. WARM UPGLIDE OVER THE BOUNDARY
COULD RESULT IN LIGHT PRECIP FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN CWA AS SOON
AS TUESDAY EVENING, ESPECIALLY S AND SE OF I-85. THE CHANCES PEAK
AS THE SHORTWAVE PASSES BY TO OUR NORTH EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE ACTUAL
FRONT BEGINS TO SHIFT NORTHWARD THAT DAY, SO AN UNSTABLE SUBTROPICAL
AIRMASS LOOKS TO RETURN TO THE SOUTHERN ZONES, RESULTING IN SMALL
CONVECTIVE POPS WED AFTERNOON, AT WHICH TIME TEMPS TREND BACK TO
NORMAL IF NOT SLIGHTLY ABOVE.
KEY MESSAGE 2: HUMIDITY AND RAIN CHANCES INCREASE THURSDAY, WITH
PERIODS OF RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS LIKELY AT TIMES BETWEEN THURSDAY
EVENING AND LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONGER,
DAMAGING WINDS CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT EITHER OF THOSE
DAYS. DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND.
MOISTURE FLUX INCREASES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE STALLED FRONT OVER
THE DEEP SOUTH AGAIN REACTIVATES, IN RESPONSE TO SHORTWAVE AND SFC
CYCLONE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST BUT ALSO POSSIBLY INFLUENCED BY THE
INLAND TRACK OF THE DISTURBANCE NEAR THE WESTERN GULF COAST. THIS
FRONTAL REACTIVATION ALONE WARRANTS A GRADUAL INCREASE IN POPS
THURSDAY. THE GULF DISTURBANCE ITSELF CONTINUES TO BE A POINT
OF CONTENTION AMONG THE GLOBAL MODELS, THOUGH THE MAJORITY OF
GUIDANCE APPEARS TO FAVOR A SOLUTION SIMILAR TO THE LAST COUPLE
RUNS OF THE GFS, SHOWING THAT SYSTEM OPENING INTO A WAVE ALONG THE
DEEP SOUTH FRONT WHICH ADVECTS OVER OUR AREA BY THURSDAY NIGHT,
AT WHICH TIME WE ALSO EXPERIENCE HEIGHT FALLS AS THE MIDWEST SYSTEM
ADVANCES. RECENT RUNS OF THE ECMWF AIFS FAVOR THIS TYPE OF SOLUTION,
AND THE GDPS HAS TRENDED TOWARD THIS TYPE OF SOLUTION AS WELL,
THOUGH IT IS STILL MORE AMPLIFIED WITH ITS FRONTAL WAVE. PWATS ARE
ELEVATED IN THESE SOLUTIONS, BUT NOT TERRIBLY UNUSUAL FOR EARLY
SUMMER; HEAVY RAIN THREAT COULD STILL RESULT IF WE MANAGE SOME
INSTABILITY THURSDAY OR FRIDAY AFTERNOONS, WITH STEERING FLOW
ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO THE FRONT. EVEN A WEAK WAVE LIKE THE GDPS'S
DEPICTION COULD LEAD TO LOCALLY ENHANCED RAINFALL. WE'LL BE UNDER
AN UNUSUALLY STRONG HEIGHT GRADIENT FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND GUSTS
OF 25-35 MPH MAY OCCUR THURSDAY AND/OR FRIDAY EVEN IF THE GULF WAVE
DAMPENS OUT. THE ECMWF REMAINS A RELATIVE OUTLIER IN SHOWING THE
GULF LOW REMAINING A DISTINCT CYCLONE WHICH IS PICKED UP BY THE
MIDWEST TROUGH WHICH DOES NOT REACH OUR AREA FRIDAY, AND WOULD
RESULT IN ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND INSTABILITY OVER THE AREA
WHICH COULD RESULT IN A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT, MAINLY OF THE GUST
FRONT VARIETY, BUT WITH A TORNADO OR TWO NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
TEMPS LOOK TO RISE BACK TO NEAR 90 THURSDAY OVER THE PIEDMONT WITH
HEAT INDICES IN THE UPPER 90S IN SPOTS, UNLESS RAIN AND CLOUDS
SPREAD IN MORE QUICKLY THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED. RAIN IS MOST LIKELY
OVERALL THU NIGHT OR EARLY FRI OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS,
AND FRI AFTERNOON OVER THE LOWER PIEDMONT. AS THE MIDWEST FRONT
PUSHES OUT OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT, DEWPOINTS AND POPS DECLINE
FOR THE WEEKEND ALTHOUGH TEMPS REMAIN NEAR NORMAL.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD AT ALL TERMINALS. HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AS MOISTURE RETURNS FROM THE SOUTHWEST. CEILINGS WILL
REMAIN WELL ABOVE RESTRICTIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL INCREASE TO 6-12KTS OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK: MOSTLY QUIET CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK. MVFR TO
IFR STRATUS MAY FORM ACROSS GA AND EXPAND NE INTO THE UPSTATE AND
WESTERN NC MOUNTAINS AS SOON AS TUESDAY EVENING, AND COULD REMAIN
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE SCATTERING OUT. A SIMILAR SETUP MAY
OCCUR AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. DIURNAL
CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS WILL LIKELY RETURN THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
JCW/TW
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