854
FXUS62 KGSP 021130
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
630 AM EST FRI DEC 2 2022
SYNOPSIS
DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK, WITH A
WETTER PATTERN OSCILLATING THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE MAJORITY
OF NEXT WEEK, AS A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER FOR THE WEEKEND AND BEGIN TO WARM BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 630 AM EST FRIDAY: HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL SLIDE OFF SHORE THROUGH THE DAY. THE REMAINING
SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE AREA WEAKENS TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO THE OH VALLEY. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SPREAD OVER THE AREA AS LOW
CLOUDS SLOWLY INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH WITH THE DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW. HIGHS WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
THERE ARE SOME WEAK SHORT WAVES THAT MOVE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT IN
THE NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT; HOWEVER, THE MAIN FORCING THAT DEVELOPS
TONIGHT WILL BE UPSLOPE FLOW AND ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS IS FOR ONLY SPOTTY PRECIP THIS EVENING
WITH BETTER PRECIP CHANCES SPREADING IN OVERNIGHT AS THE MOISTURE
BECOMES DEEPER. QPF WILL BE LIGHT. WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AS H85 WINDS INCREASE, BUT THEY SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVEL. LOWS WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 226 AM FRIDAY: A PERSISTENT AREA OF UPPER HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO CHURN OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND EXTENDS W-E. TO THE
NORTH, A SURFACE LOW STRENGTHENS OVER ONTARIO WITH AN ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT REACHING THE SOUTHERN CONUS. UPPER ZONAL FLOW WILL
DOMINATE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THIS PERIOD WITH THE FROPA
SWEEPING THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY. SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW DRAWS
MOISTURE IN AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND LEADS TO A RELATIVELY SATURATED
UPPER AIR PROFILE AS INDICATED BY GFS MODEL GUIDANCE. PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CWA ON SATURDAY, WITH LIKELY POPS SATURDAY
MORNING IN THE WESTERN CAROLINA MOUNTAINS AND CHANCE POPS IN THE
PIEDMONT. RAIN WILL QUICKLY MOVE OUT OF THE AREA AND SHOULD BE DONE
SATURDAY NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
AND MOVES EASTWARD ON SUNDAY, BUT GULF MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE
ADVECTED INTO THE AREA FROM THE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH.
MEANWHILE, A SURFACE LOW OVER KANSAS EXTENDS A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN STATES, PROVIDING SOME LIFTING FOR ANOTHER POSSIBLE ROUND
OF RAIN STARTING SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES DURING
THIS FORECAST PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN A BIT ABOVE CLIMO ON
SATURDAY, 60S FOR THE HIGHS AND 40S IN THE PIEDMONT WITH 30S IN THE
MOUNTAINS. A RETURN TO NEAR CLIMO ON SUNDAY AS HIGHS DIP INTO THE
50S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 227 AM FRIDAY: A CONTINUATION OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST, THIS
FORECAST PERIOD REMAINS RATHER WET FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA.
SYNOPTICALLY, AN UPPER HIGH REMAINS THE DOMINATE FEATURE OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO. A SEMI-ZONAL PATTERN ALSO REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHERN
CONUS, WITH MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES ADVANCING THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE NECESSARY LIFT FOR SHOWERS,
HOWEVER, GIVEN THE MINIMAL INSTABILITY AVAILABLE PER MODEL GUIDANCE,
PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN NON-CONVECTIVE. HIGH PWAT VALUES NEARING
1.5 INCHES, TOGETHER WITH DEEP LEVEL MOISTURE PROFILES FROM GFS AND
ECMWF SOUNDING GUIDANCE, SHOULD ALLOW FOR MULTIPLE DAYS OF
PRECIPITATION. CONTINUING FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING, LIKELY POPS FOR THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR THE PIEDMONT IS EXPECTED. FOR THURSDAY, THERE
EXIST SOME DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECWMF GUIDANCE ON A
SURFACE LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. THIS
COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWARD COULD CONTINUE THE RAIN CHANCES FOR
THE AREA, HENCE CHANCE POPS FOR THE ENTIRE CWA WERE INCLUDED FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. GENERALLY, EXPECT A WETTER PATTERN
FOR NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE CLIMO, WITH
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEING THE WARMEST AS TEMPS CREEP UP INTO THE
UPPER 60S. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO REMAIN WELL ABOVE CLIMO.
AMPLE CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE WEEK WILL AID IN
INSULATING THE AREA AND LEAD TO MUCH WARMER NIGHT TEMPS, WITH LOWS
IN THE 40S AND 50S FOR MOST OF THE AREA.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY
ALTHOUGH SOME LOW VFR CIGS POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON. MVFR CIGS
DEVELOPING DURING THE EVENING WITH IFR CIGS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA TODAY AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT. MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE STREAM OVER
THE AREA TODAY WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. CALM TO LIGHT NE WIND THIS MORNING BECOMES LIGHT S TO SE
BY AFTERNOON. LLWS DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AS AN H85 JET
TRANSITS THE AREA.
OUTLOOK: LOW CLOUDS AND PRECIP CHANCES CONTINUE THRU SATURDAY, AS
THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. SOME CLEARING IS POSSIBLE ON
SUNDAY, AS THE FRONT SETTLES SOUTH OF THE REGION, HOWEVER UNSETTLED
WEATHER RETURNS LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...RWH
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM...CP
AVIATION...RWH
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