060
FXUS62 KGSP 300527
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
127 AM EDT WED SEP 30 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
QPF HAS TRENDED DOWN SATURDAY THRU SUNDAY, BUT STILL EXPECT DECENT
RAIN CHANCES.
UPDATED THE AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
1. DRY WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH FRIDAY.
2. RAIN IS LIKELY THIS WEEKEND WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SLOW-MOVING
COLD FRONT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES
TREND SLIGHTLY COOLER SATURDAY, AND MUCH COOLER SUNDAY. DRY WEATHER
IS EXPECTED TO RETURN MONDAY, WITH BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: DRY WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY.
UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST THRU THURSDAY, THEN
WILL SLOWLY FLATTEN, AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES RIDE THRU THE
PREVAILING WESTERLIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN US. SFC HIGH PRES WILL
MIGRATE EAST OFF THE COAST, SETTING UP A BERMUDA-HIGH-LIKE PATTERN,
WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL THRU FRIDAY. FRIDAY
IS EXPECTED TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK, WITH HIGHS WELL INTO
THE 80S IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS, AND AROUND 90 IN PORTIONS OF THE
LAKELANDS AND SOUTHEAST OF CHARLOTTE. ENOUGH MOISTURE AND WEAKENING
OF A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL RESULT IN SOME UNCAPPED INSTABILITY
ACROSS THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS, THUS A RETURN OF SCATTERED SHOWERS
POSSIBLE. MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY THRU
FRIDAY NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 2: RAIN IS LIKELY THIS WEEKEND WITH THE PASSAGE
OF A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES TREND SLIGHTLY COOLER SATURDAY, AND MUCH
COOLER SUNDAY. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN MONDAY, WITH
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL SLOWLY DIG ACROSS THE MIDWEST TO THE
OHIO VALLEY OVER THE WEEKEND, ALLOWING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO SAG
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND MID-ATLANTIC BY
EARLY SATURDAY. THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT THE FRONT WILL SLIDE INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH DURING THE
DAY SATURDAY, AND HAVE SOME INSTABILITY TO TRIGGER WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS. THE 850 MB FLOW REMAINS ON THE WEAK SIDE, AND FORCING
REMAINS MODEST. SO, THERE IS NO STRONG SIGNAL FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY
RAINFALL, ALTHOUGH WITH PWATS SURGING TO 1.75-2.0" (ABOVE THE
95TH PERCENTILE OF CLIMO), LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAK, DUE TO MOIST
PROFILES AND WEAK LAPSE RATES, BUT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. AS THE FRONT SAGS SOUTH, A HYBRID CAD LOOKS TO DEVELOP,
WITH A 1028 MB PARENT HIGH TRACKING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES
TO NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL BRING TEMPS DOWN, FROM SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL SATURDAY TO BELOW NORMAL ON SUNDAY.
UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEEPEN OVER THE EASTERN CONUS EARLY
NEXT WEEK, USHERING IN A FAIRLY STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM. SOME CHANCE POPS LINGER IN THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE CWFA
EARLY MONDAY, BUT DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN BY MONDAY AFTN. DRY
WEATHER WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THRU THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPS
LOOK TO BE NEAR NORMAL MONDAY, THEN 5-10 DEG BELOW NORMAL UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: DRY, VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THRU
THE 06Z TAF PERIOD WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. MTN
VALLEY FOG/LOW STRATUS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AGAIN OVERNIGHT IN THE
USUAL LOCATIONS, HOWEVER LIKE THE PAST FEW MORNINGS, IT IS NOT
EXPECTED TO REACH KAVL. WITH THE LIGHT TO CALM WINDS AND HIGHER
DEWPTS OVERNIGHT, WE COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOP OUTSIDE
THE MTNS. CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW FOR ANY TAF MENTION. WINDS WILL
PICK UP MARGINALLY OUT OF THE S TO SW THIS AFTERNOON IN THE 3 TO
6 KT RANGE. THEY WILL GO LIGHT AND VRB TO CALM AGAIN LATER THIS
EVENING. OTHERWISE, EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH A FEW FAIR WX
CUMULUS AND HIGH CIRRUS THIS AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK: DRY, VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY.
MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY, WITH
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE MTNS AND MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS ACROSS THE AREA
OVER THE WEEKEND. MTN VALLEY FOG/LOW STRATUS REMAINS POSSIBLE
EACH MORNING.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
ARK/JPT
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