786
FXUS62 KGSP 131046
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
646 AM EDT MON APR 13 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE AVIATION DISCUSSION WAS UPDATED FOR THE 12Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
1. 1. WELL-ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE WITH MARGINALLY
HIGHER HUMIDITY AND GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED TODAY.
2. DRY AND HOT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND WITH NO DROUGHT RELIEF IN
SIGHT. DAILY RECORD HIGHS COULD BE IN JEOPARDY TUESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY, WHICH MAY BE DANGEROUS FOR VULNERABLE POPULATIONS. A
COLD FRONT MAY FINALLY BRING SOME DROUGHT RELIEF SUNDAY, BUT THAT
IS MORE UNCERTAIN.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: 1. WELL-ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE WITH
MARGINALLY HIGHER HUMIDITY AND GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED TODAY.
BROAD UPPER RIDGING WILL FLATTEN OVER THE SOUTHEAST TODAY AS
EMBEDDED UPPER SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES UP AND OVER THE RIDGE.
AT THE SFC, BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL GET PUSHED FURTHER OFF
THE ATLANTIC COAST BY A LARGE SFC LOW OVER SE CANADA. THE WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL LAY ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN PERIPHERY THIS AFTN/EVENING AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE
WITHIN THE WARM SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THERE IS A LOW-END CHANCE
FOR SOME SCT SHOWERS JUST TO OUR NORTH THIS AFTERNOON, BUT IT'S
DOUBTFUL THAT ANY PRECIP WILL REACH OUR CWA. RH SHOULD REBOUND
MARGINALLY TODAY IN RESPONSE TO SLOWLY-INCREASING MOISTURE FROM
THE SOUTH, BUT IT'S STILL EXPECTED TO FALL INTO 30 TO 35 PERCENT
RANGE DURING PEAK HEATING THIS AFTN. IN ADDITION, WINDS WILL BE
A BIT STRONGER TODAY WITH LOW-END GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 KTS LIKELY
ACROSS OUR AREA. GEORGIA FORESTRY OFFICIALS CONTINUE TO BE CON-
CERNED OVER THE VERY DRY FUELS ACROSS THE STATE, AND HAVE RE-
QUESTED THAT RED FLAG WARNINGS AND/OR FIRE DANGER STATEMENTS BE
ISSUED FOR MOST OF THE STATE TODAY. AS SUCH, A RFW WILL BE IN
EFFECT FOR RABUN AND HABERSHAM COUNTIES FROM NOON UNTIL 8 PM
TODAY, AND A FDS WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR THE REST OF OUR NE GA
COUNTIES. NC/SC OFFICIALS HAVE NOT REQUESTED ANY FIRE DANGER
STATEMENTS AT THIS TIME.
KEY MESSAGE 2: DRY AND HOT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND WITH NO
DROUGHT RELIEF IN SIGHT. DAILY RECORD HIGHS COULD BE IN JEOPARDY
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, WHICH MAY BE DANGEROUS FOR VULNERABLE
POPULATIONS. A COLD FRONT MAY FINALLY BRING SOME DROUGHT RELIEF
SUNDAY, BUT THAT IS MORE UNCERTAIN.
SOUTHEAST UPPER RIDGING AND SURFACE BERMUDA HIGH WILL SET THE STAGE
FOR AN EARLY SEASON SPRING HEAT WAVE ACROSS THE CWFA STARTING
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS SYNOPTIC SETUP WILL DEFLECT ANY
SHORTWAVES AND BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL LIKELY RISE INTO THE
UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90, MAINLY OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS AND REMAIN
RELATIVELY THE SAME FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH SOME LOCATIONS
POSSIBLE REACHING INTO THE LOW 90S. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS SHOWN
TRAVERSING FROM THE WEST AND OVER THE NORTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE
EAST COAST LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE
GRADUALLY BREAKS DOWN IN RESPONSE. WITH DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS,
THERE ISN'T MUCH RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE OUTSIDE OF
THE MOUNTAINS, MAINLY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE NC/TN BORDER, SO THERE ARE
TOKEN POPS FOR THIS AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE, SHARPER RIDGING
BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE QUICKLY BUILDS BACK INTO THE CWFA FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY, WHICH WILL ONLY BOOST THE ONGOING HEAT AS TEMPERATURES
RISE INTO THE LOW 90S, WITH SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTING MID 90S,
PUTTING DAILY RECORD HIGHS IN JEOPARDY TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
IN THE OVERALL SETUP. THE COMBINATION OF HIGH HEAT STRESS, LACK
OF RAINFALL, AND SUBSEQUENT DAYS OF TEMPERATURES AT 15-25 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL, ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS WILL WORSEN AND THE HEAT
MAY BECOME DANGEROUS FOR THE VULNERABLE POPULATIONS. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH THE REGION SUNDAY AND HELP COOL TEMPERATURES OFF
SLIGHTLY AND BRING IN AN UPTICK IN RAIN CHANCES. HOWEVER, GUIDANCE
STRUGGLES ON TIMING AND THE OVERALL QPF RESPONSE THIS FAR OUT,
SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME, ESPECIALLY WITH THE DELAYED
NATURE OF COLD FRONTS MOVING INTO THE CWFA ON DAY 7.
AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: EXPECT DRY, VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE
THRU THE 12Z TAF PERIOD. A VERY BROAD AREA OF HIGH CLOUDS WILL
PERSIST THRU THE MORNING, WITH SOME DISSIPATION EXPECTED BY THE
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE S/SW THRU THE TAF PERIOD
WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW-END GUSTS IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE EX-
PECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. AT KAVL THE GUSTS WILL
LIKELY BE MORE INTERMITTENT, THUS I LIMIT THEM TO A TEMPO GROUP
FROM 17 TO 21Z.
OUTLOOK: EXPECT DRY, VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THRU AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK.
CLIMATE
RECORDS FOR 04-14
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 86 2006 36 1907 62 1922 24 1950
KCLT 89 1941 46 1907 69 1922 27 1950
KGSP 92 1916 48 1901 67 1922 22 1907
RECORDS FOR 04-15
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 89 1972 42 1943 64 1887 23 1907
KCLT 89 1936 46 1889 66 2006 28 1907
KGSP 91 2006 45 1913 69 1922 22 1907
RECORDS FOR 04-16
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 87 2006 42 1905 62 1945 26 1943
KCLT 89 2006 49 1890 64 1998 29 2008
1896 1991 1962
1945
KGSP 88 1888 54 1903 64 1945 24 1907
RECORDS FOR 04-17
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 89 1896 45 1890 63 1927 26 1904
KCLT 94 1896 47 1890 66 1896 30 2018
1949
KGSP 92 2006 51 1904 63 1927 25 1905
RECORDS FOR 04-18
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 90 1896 44 1921 60 1927 28 1905
1891
KCLT 93 1896 45 1983 66 1896 32 2001
KGSP 89 2002 51 1983 66 1927 28 1905
1967
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
GAZ010-017.
INCREASED FIRE DANGER FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING
FOR GAZ018-026-028-029.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
CAC/JPT
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