166
FXUS62 KGSP 140520
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
120 AM EDT MON SEP 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
THE AVIATION DISCUSSION HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THE 06Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
1. RELATIVELY WARM LATE SUMMER WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEK, WITH LOW RISK FOR SIGNIFICANT WEATHER.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: RELATIVELY WARM LATE SUMMER WEATHER WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE WEEK, WITH LOW RISK FOR SIGNIFICANT WEATHER.
THE WEATHER LOOKS FAIRLY QUIET OVER THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH A
LOW CHANCE FOR ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT HAPPENING. EVEN THOUGH WE
HAVE A BACK-DOOR FRONT MOVING DOWN FROM THE NORTH LATER TODAY,
THE MID/UPPER ANTICYCLONE OVER THE OZARKS BUILDS EASTWARD TO THE
TN VALLEY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND HELPS TO KEEP THE CONVECTIVE
ENVIRONMENT GENERALLY UNFAVORABLE AND SUPPRESSED. BY PEAK HEATING
THE SFC-BASED CAPE MIGHT PEAK AROUND 500 J/KG. HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SHOULD PUSH THE FRONT INTO THE
REGION LATE IN THE DAY AND THAT BOUNDARY COULD MAKE THE MOST OF
WHAT IS AVAILABLE, WITH A FOCUS OF EASTERLY FLOW UP AGAINST THE
BLUE RIDGE ESCARPMENT. THAT IS WHERE ISOLATED SHOWERS WOULD FORM,
IF AT ALL. THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY IN MOST PLACES. BECAUSE
OF THE LATE FRONTAL PASSAGE, WE GET ONE MORE HOT DAY WITH HIGH
TEMPS 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
THE MOST INTERESTING PART OF THE FORECAST REMAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME WEAK, DRY COLD AIR DAMMING AS THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
MOVES FROM NEW ENGLAND ON TUESDAY TO A POSITION OFF THE COAST OF
NEW ENGLAND AND THE MARITIME PROVINCES ON WEDNESDAY. THERE COULD
BE SOME SHALLOW MOISTURE ON AN EASTERLY FLOW ON TUESDAY THAT WILL
HELP KEEP TEMPS AROUND NORMAL WITH SOME INCREASE IN LOW CLOUDINESS,
BUT THERE WON'T BE ANY FORCING FOR PRECIP AND THE MOISTURE DOESN'T
STAY FOR LONG. THE RESULT WOULD BE TEMPS RISING BACK ABOVE NORMAL
ON WEDNESDAY WITH A WARMUP RIGHT BACK INTO THE LOWER 90S EAST OF
THE MOUNTAINS BY THE END OF THE WEEK. TYPICAL WEATHER FOR HAVING
AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE/RIDGE IN OUR MIDST. AS THE AIR MASS MODIFIES
AND WARMS, WE EXPECT A RETURN OF HIGH ELEVATION SCATTERED DIURNAL
SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM THURSDAY ONWARD. THE CLIMO PRECIP PROBS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
MEANWHILE...AS ALL THIS IS HAPPENING LATE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND,
SOME OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS A MID/UPPER LOW MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS
THE FL PENINSULA AND THE NORTHERN GULF. IF THIS COMES TO PASS,
LATE IN THE PERIOD WE WOULD GET BACK INTO A WETTER PATTERN WITH
DEEP MOISTURE MOVING BACK FROM THE SOUTH, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT MOST TERMINALS
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD OUTSIDE OF MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG AND LOW
STRATUS. KEPT THE TEMPO MENTION FOR FOG AND LOW STRATUS AT KAVL
THROUGH DAYBREAK. ANY FOG AND LOW STRATUS THAT FORMS WILL QUICKLY
MIX OUT SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. CAN'T RULE OUT A ROGUE SHOWER DURING
THE AFTERNOON AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW FOR A TAF MENTION AT THIS TIME AS COVERAGE
WILL BE ISOLATED AT BEST. LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS OVERNIGHT,
WHILE TOGGLING TO A NORTH TO NORTHEAST POSITION DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS. FLOW IS EXPECTED TO TURN EAST TO NORTHEASTERLY BY THE
EVENING INTO TONIGHT BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT AND ALLOW
WINDS TO PICKUP TO 5-10 KTS, WHILE KAVL MAINTAINS A NORTHWEST
COMPONENT THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH A FEW LOW
END GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE IS PICKING UP ON CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND DAYBREAK TUESDAY, WHICH COULD
LEAD TO SOME STRATUS RESTRICTIONS. WILL REEVALUATE THIS POTENTIAL
FOR THE LAST LINE OF THE 12Z TAF UPDATE.
OUTLOOK: MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. SHOWER CHANCES AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS
INCREASE LATER IN THE WEEK. MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG AND LOW STRATUS
IS POSSIBLE EACH MORNING THROUGH THE WEEK.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
CAC/PM
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