353
FXUS62 KGSP 092331
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
731 PM EDT SUN AUG 9 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO EVENING POP BASED ON RADAR AND LATEST CAMS.
UPDATED THE AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
1. MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE
EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEK, WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED PULSE
SEVERE STORMS AND LOCALIZED EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.
2. HUMID AND HOTTER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST THE
END OF THE WEEK. SOME PIEDMONT/UPSTATE LOCATIONS COULD SEE DAILY
HEAT INDEX BETWEEN 98-103 EACH AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL
CONTINUE EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEK, WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
PULSE SEVERE STORMS AND LOCALIZED EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.
SCATTERED CONVECTION LINGERS ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING THEN
SHOULD BEGIN A DIMINISHING TREND. AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM OR SOME
BRIEF, HEAVY RAINFALL REMAINS POSSIBLE UNTIL THE CONVECTION ENDS.
WEAK/LOW-AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON, ALLOWING FOR SOME DEGREE
OF DRYING IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS. THIS COMBINED WITH WESTERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW MAY BRING SOME SMALL RELIEF TO AFTERNOON HUMIDITY MONDAY
AND TUESDAY, BUT AT LEAST MODERATE DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED
EACH DAY. THE RELATIVELY DRIER OVERALL PROFILES ARE LIKELY TO
REDUCE THE AMOUNT OF DIURNAL CONVECTIVE COVERAGE COMPARED WITH
THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS, WITH MAINLY 30-40 POPS FORECAST ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS, AND 10-30% ELSEWHERE BOTH AFTERNOONS. NEVERTHELESS,
INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR
A FEW STRONG-TO-SEVERE MICROBURSTS.
DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK, THE MID-LEVEL FLOW
ACROSS THE REGION IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE A BIT FROM THE NW AS A
SOUTHWEST CONUS RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN AND MOVE EAST, WHILE AN AREA
OF SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT FALLS PROGRESSES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. THIS
COULD RESULT IN REMNANT ORGANIZED CONVECTION ORIGINATING FROM THE
VERY UNSTABLE ENVIRONS OVER THE MIDWEST TO MAKE OVERNIGHT/MORNING
RUNS TOWARD THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS, ALTHOUGH THIS IS ALL IN THE
HYPOTHETICAL REALM AT THIS POINT. NEVERTHELESS, POPS INCREASE A
BIT TO SOLID CHANCE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND LOWER CHANCES EAST,
MAINLY FROM FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
KEY MESSAGE 2: HUMID AND HOTTER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH AT
LEAST THE END OF THE WEEK. SOME PIEDMONT/UPSTATE LOCATIONS COULD SEE
DAILY HEAT INDEX BETWEEN 98-103 EACH AFTERNOON.
UPPER HEIGHTS WILL RISE VERY GRADUALLY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THIS WEEK, AS A FLATTENING UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHEAST
FROM THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE COUNTRY. MAX TEMPS ARE FORECAST
TO MAINLY FROM 3-5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEK. THE INCREASING HEAT WILL ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED BY SLIGHTLY
DRIER VERTICAL PROFILES ALONG WITH WESTERLY LOW LEVEL (DOWNSLOPE)
FLOW. THIS COULD PROMOTE BETTER AFTERNOON MIXING IN COMPARISON WITH
RECENT DAYS, BUT CONDITIONS WILL NEVERTHELESS BE PLENTY HUMID,
AND HEAT INDEX VALUES AS HIGH AS 103 WILL BE LIKELY EACH DAY OF
THE WEEK ACROSS AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE PIEDMONT. THE SYNOPTIC
PATTERN WILL NOT BE ESPECIALLY CONDUCIVE TO A PERSISTENT EXCESSIVE
HEAT EVENT, BUT WE CAN'T RULE OUT AT LEAST BRIEF PERIODS OF 105+
HEAT INDEX ACROSS THE LOWEST ELEVATIONS. THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY
TRUE NEXT WEEKEND, WHEN THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO DEPICT
A STRENGTHENING ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SOUTHEAST.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: CONVECTION LINGERS ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING. A 2 HOUR PROB30 NEEDED AT KCLT WHERE CELLS ARE NEARBY.
ELSEWHERE, WILL MAKE A GAME TIME DECISION FOR CONVECTION MENTION
BASED ON RADAR RETURNS. CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH BY 02Z OR SO.
MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG/LOW STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO BECOME WIDESPREAD
AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY, WITH LIFR CONDITIONS FORECAST
TO DEVELOP AT KAVL BY DAYBREAK. THERE ARE LOWER CHANCES FOR MAINLY
LOW STRATUS AT THE OTHER TAF SITES, BUT THE PROBABILITY IS HIGH
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE A FEW HOURS OF SCT005 CENTERED AROUND 12Z MONDAY.
SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION EXPECTED AGAIN ON MONDAY WITH GUIDANCE
FAVORING ALL BUT KCLT AND KHKY. HAVE ONLY INTRODUCED PROB30S AT THE
OTHER SITES WHERE CHANCES ARE HIGHER. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, THEN PICK UP FROM THE WSW, NNW
AT KAVL, DURING THE DAY MONDAY.
OUTLOOK: ISOLATED-TO-SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITH ASSOCIATED FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE WEEK. PATCHY FOG AND LOW STRATUS IS POSSIBLE EACH MORNING,
ESPECIALLY IN THE MTN VALLEYS AND ANYWHERE THAT RECEIVED SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL THE PREVIOUS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
JDL/RWH
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