351
FXUS62 KGSP 182353
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
753 PM EDT WED MAR 18 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED THE AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
1. COLD AIR MASS LINGERS OVER THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT, KEEPING
WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AROUND. LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP
NEAR TO BELOW FREEZING, IMPACTING SENSITIVE VEGETATION THAT HAS
ALREADY STARTED BLOOMING FROM THE RECENT ABNORMALLY WARM WEATHER.
2. WARMING TREND STILL ON TRACK STARTING THURSDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT COULD BRING SHOWERS ON MONDAY AND COOLER
TEMPS ON TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: COLD AIR MASS LINGERS OVER THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT,
KEEPING WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AROUND. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
DROP NEAR TO BELOW FREEZING, IMPACTING SENSITIVE VEGETATION THAT HAS
ALREADY STARTED BLOOMING FROM THE RECENT ABNORMALLY WARM WEATHER.
BROAD UPPER TROUGHINESS WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN CONUS TONIGHT
AND THURSDAY AS AN INTENSE ANTICYCLONE CONTINUES TO MEANDER
OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. AN ELONGATED SURFACE HIGH STRETCHING
FROM NOVA SCOTIA TO THE SOUTHEAST WILL HELP SUPPORT COOL AND DRY
CONDITIONS INTO TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE A CHANCE TO FALL
AT OR BELOW FREEZING ACROSS MOST OF THE CWFA, BUT COULD COME A FEW
TICKS SHY OF THAT READING DUE TO IN AND OUT CLOUD COVER THANKS TO
MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES TRAVERSING WITHIN THE TROUGH AND INTERRUPTING
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS AT TIMES. THE POTENTIAL FOR
PRECIP ANYWHERE WILL LIKELY BE VIRGA AT BEST AS THE DRY ANTECEDENT
AIRMASS HOLDS STRONG. FLOW TURNS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST ON THURSDAY
AS THE HIGH BECOMES DISCONNECTED FROM THE CWFA. AS A RESULT,
TEMPERATURES REBOUND INTO THE 60S (50S IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS)
FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS WITH PERIODS OF CLOUD COVER.
KEY MESSAGE 2: WARMING TREND STILL ON TRACK STARTING THURSDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT COULD BRING SHOWERS ON MONDAY AND COOLER TEMPS
ON TUESDAY.
THE MAIN KEY MESSAGE FOR THE SHORT TO LONG TERM IS THE STEADILY
RISING HEIGHTS THROUGH LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND, LEADING TO A
SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND. HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL ON THURSDAY
WILL RISE INTO THE 80S BY SUNDAY, AROUND 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
A COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES BY
TUESDAY SHOULD BE BACK TO A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. A FEW SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY, BUT MOST AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL PICK UP
SLIGHTLY OUT OF THE SW AROUND 15-16Z, BUT SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT. AT
KAVL, THE WINDS WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE NW. AN AREA OF MID CLOUDS
WILL EXIT EAST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING, LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
OVERNIGHT, THEN ANOTHER AROUND OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS STREAM IN
FROM THE NW THURSDAY MORNING WITH SCT TO BKN AT TIMES THRU THE DAY.
OUTLOOK: MOSTLY DRY AND VFR THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT MAY BRING SOME MOISTURE TO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
ARK/CAC/SCW
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