364
FXUS62 KGSP 061750
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
150 PM EDT MON APR 6 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO FORECAST TRENDS.
KEY MESSAGES
1. THE THREAT OF PATCHY FROST REMAINS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT,
AND POSSIBLY EAST ACROSS THE I-40 CORRIDOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. PROTECTION OF SENSITIVE VEGETATION MAY BE REQUIRED IN
SOME LOCATIONS.
2. FIRE WEATHER WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE OF A CONCERN THROUGH
MID-WEEK AS A DRY AIR MASS SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION. OUTDOOR
BURNING COULD BECOME DANGEROUS BY WEDNESDAY DUE TO LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES, GUSTY WINDS, AND DRY FUELS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: THE THREAT OF PATCHY FROST REMAINS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
TONIGHT, AND POSSIBLY EAST ACROSS THE I-40 CORRIDOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. PROTECTION OF SENSITIVE VEGETATION MAY BE REQUIRED
IN SOME LOCATIONS.
COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL BE IN STORE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. A
WEAK, DRY COLD FRONT WILL SWING ACROSS THE CWFA TONIGHT TO HELP
REINFORCE THE COOLER AND DRIER AIR. BOUNDARY LAYERS WILL STRUGGLE
TO FULLY DECOUPLE TONIGHT DESPITE TEMPERATURES REACHING CLOSE TO
FROSTY LEVELS, ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. SOME PATCHY FROST IS
POSSIBLE IN SHELTERED MOUNTAIN VALLEYS, BUT NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH
TO WARRANT A FROST ADVISORY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 30S
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND 40S ELSEWHERE.
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO
NORTHEASTERN CONUS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST REMAINS RELATIVELY THE SAME WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
NEAR-NORMAL AND OVERNIGHT LOWS REACHING A CATEGORY OR TWO BELOW
NORMAL. FROST POTENTIAL REMAINS PATCHY TUESDAY NIGHT DUE TO A
TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT DESPITE COOLER TEMPERATURES COMPARED
TO TONIGHT, WITH LIKELY THE SAME SHELTERED VALLEYS HAVING THE
BEST FROST POTENTIAL. THE SURFACE HIGH SHOULD SLIP OFFSHORE THE
NORTHEAST COAST WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND ALLOW FOR THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TO RELAX SOME. WITH THE COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS
STILL IN PLACE, PATCHY FROST DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS AND I-40 CORRIDOR AS TEMPERATURES COOL INTO THE LOW
TO MID 30S, WHICH WILL BE THE BEST NIGHT FOR A POTENTIAL FROST
ADVISORY. THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS HAVEN'T STARTED THE FROST/FREEZE
PROGRAM AND WON'T UNTIL APRIL 21ST. OTHERWISE, EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 2: FIRE WEATHER WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE OF A
CONCERN THROUGH MID-WEEK AS A DRY AIR MASS SPREADS ACROSS THE
REGION. OUTDOOR BURNING COULD BECOME DANGEROUS BY WEDNESDAY DUE
TO LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES, GUSTY WINDS, AND DRY FUELS.
MOST PARTS OF THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA SAW AT
LEAST 0.25 INCH OF RAIN IN THE FRIDAY TO SUNDAY PERIOD, WITH THE
SMOKY MOUNTAINS, UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY, AND A FEW SWATHS
SOUTHEAST OF I-85 HAVING SUBSTANTIALLY MORE. HOWEVER, WHATEVER
MITIGATING EFFECT THAT HAD ON FUEL MOISTURE READINGS IS LIKELY
TO BE SHORT-LIVED. HIGH PRESSURE IS ALREADY NOSING INTO THE AREA
FROM THE WEST. MODEST DIURNAL MIXING WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON,
AND WITH AIRMASS MODIFICATION TUESDAY DEEPER MIXING SHOULD OCCUR
WHICH WILL MAINTAIN CRITICALLY LOW MINIMUM RH OF 25-30 PERCENT IN
MANY LOCATIONS. THE DRY PATTERN IS REINFORCED AS A CANADIAN HIGH
BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH TOMORROW NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL
TURN N TO NE, BECOMING BREEZY AND OCCASIONALLY GUSTY OVERNIGHT
INTO WED MORNING. AS THESE WINDS ADVECT MUCH DRIER AIR TO THE
LOW LEVELS, LOW MINIMUM RH REMAINS LIKELY WED AFTERNOON EVEN
AS TEMPERATURES TREND COOLER, AND MIXING DEPTH IS LIMITED BY A
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. BRIEF OVERLAP OF CRITICAL RH WITH WINDS IS
POSSIBLE FOR A TIME WED, AND MAY WARRANT ISSUANCE OF AN INCREASED
FIRE DANGER STATEMENT IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES. TEMPERATURES MODERATE
SOMEWHAT ON THURSDAY AND THE HIGH DRIFTS OFFSHORE, WHICH STILL LOOKS
TO RESULT IN SLIGHT ATLANTIC MOISTURE FETCH, SO LOW RH IS NOT AS
LIKELY THAT DAY. HOWEVER, WARMING TEMPERATURES WILL KEEP US CLOSE
TO THAT THRESHOLD INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH PRECIP STILL LOOKING QUITE
UNLIKELY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
OVERHEAD. THUS FUEL MOISTURE IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO REMAIN LOW.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: VFR WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. A STEADY STREAM OF CIRRUS REMAINS OVER THE
AREA THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT. LIGHT NORTH TO
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING, BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. A WEAK, DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY AND WILL SHIFT WINDS DUE
NORTH AND BRING AN UPTICK IN SPEED AT 5-10 KTS. BETTER CHANCE FOR
LOW-END GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS
STILL PRESENT.
OUTLOOK: HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS OVER THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
AND LINGERS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF WEEK, WITH DRY/VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. EASTERLY FLOW MAY BRING SOME
RETURN OF LOWER CLOUDS LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
CAC/JCW
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