210
FXUS62 KGSP 242334
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
734 PM EDT SAT OCT 24 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED THE AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
1. DRY HIGH PRESSURE AND INACTIVE WEATHER CONTINUE FOR MOST OF
THE PERIOD. LOW-END FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP IN SOME
AREAS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: DRY HIGH PRESSURE AND INACTIVE WEATHER CONTINUE FOR
MOST OF THE PERIOD. LOW-END FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP
IN SOME AREAS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
IT'S A BEAUTIFUL DAY FOR MOST OF THE REGION SATURDAY, WITH ONLY
SOME LINGERING STRATOCU ACROSS THE AREA OWING TO TRAPPED MOISTURE
WITHIN A FRONTAL INVERSION SOUTH AND EAST OF THE NC MOUNTAINS.
AFTER A CHILLY MORNING, MOST LOCATIONS ARE WARMING UP, AND CAN
EXPECT TO HIT HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND HAS DRIVEN A DIFFUSE
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA, WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE TO KEEP
US STABLE AND DRY THIS WEEKEND.
DRY AND QUIET CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR MOST OF
THE NEXT WEEK AS UPPER-LEVEL BLOCKING CONTINUES ACROSS THE EASTERN
2/3 OF THE CONUS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
WILL PERMIT A RARE CLEAR-SKY COLD-AIR DAMMING WEDGE TO STRENGTHEN
OVER THE WEEKEND BEFORE THE BREAKDOWN OF THE PARENT HIGH ALLOWS IT
TO FALTER GOING INTO MONDAY. BY TUESDAY, HOWEVER, A SECONDARY CP
AIR MASS WILL SETTLE INTO THE NORTHEAST, REINFORCING THE LOW-LEVEL
DRY AIR AND INTERRUPTING THE WEEK'S WARMING TREND TOWARD NORMAL.
NONETHELESS, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB TO NEAR OR EVEN
A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
A SECONDARY, LOW-END CONCERN WILL BE RH VALUES, ESPECIALLY ON
TUESDAY. THE ARRIVAL OF THE DRIER AIR MASS WILL RESULT IN BOTH
LOWERED DEWPOINTS AND LOW-END WIND GUSTS, WHICH COULD CONTRIBUTE TO
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS IN SOME LOCATIONS. CONFIDENCE IS
LIMITED AT THIS POINT ON TIMING, WHICH IN TURN WILL DICTATE WHETHER
LOWERED RHS AND ANY POTENTIAL WIND GUSTS OVERLAP. THE THINKING
REMAINS THAT CONDITIONS ARE MOST LIKELY TO FALL BELOW CRITERIA
FOR ANY PRODUCTS, BUT THE FORECAST WILL STILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: EXPECT DRY, VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THRU
THE 00Z TAF PERIOD WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED THRU MUCH OF THE
OVERNIGHT. WE WILL PROBABLY SEE SOME FOG/LOW STRATUS DEVELOP IN THE
FAVORED MTN VALLEYS OVERNIGHT, BUT IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO REACH KAVL.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT ANOTHER (MOSTLY SCT) DECK OF MVFR
STRATUS WILL SPREAD OVER MOST OF OUR FCST AREA SUNDAY MORNING. MVFR
LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FEW TO SCT OVER MOST SITES, BUT
I WOULDN'T RULE OUT SOME BKN CIGS FROM ROUGHLY 12 TO 16Z TOMORROW
MORNING. ANY LOWER CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. OUTSIDE OF THE
MTNS, WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR A NELY DIRECTION THRU THE PERIOD.
SPEEDS WILL REMAIN IN THE 6 TO 10 KT RANGE INTO THE MORNING AND PICK
UP A BIT MORE BY THE LATE MORNING WITH LOW-END GUSTS LIKELY THRU THE
AFTERNOON. AT KAVL, WINDS SHOULD GO CALM LATER TONIGHT AND REMAIN THAT
WAY THRU THE MORNING. THEY WILL FAVOR AN ELY DIRECTION TOMORROW AFTN
WITH SPEEDS AROUND 5 KTS.
OUTLOOK: MOSTLY DRY, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALL WEEK. MTN VALLEY
FOG AND LOW STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH MORNING.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
JPT/MPR
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