228
FXUS62 KGSP 301736
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
136 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
HIGHT HEAT TRENDS CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
KEY MESSAGES
1. ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING AND INTO MONDAY
ACROSS THE NC MOUNTAINS, WITH DECREASE COVERAGE AFTERWARDS.
2. HOT AND HUMID WEATHER RETURNS BY TUESDAY, WITH DANGEROUS HEAT
INDEX VALUES LIKELY OVER THE LOW TERRAIN EACH AFTERNOON THIS WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING AND INTO
MONDAY ACROSS THE NC MOUNTAINS, WITH DECREASE COVERAGE AFTERWARDS.
PATTERN CONTINUES TO TREND DRIER AS AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE PROGRESSES
EASTWARD AND DECREASES RAIN CHANCES AFTER MONDAY. EVEN TODAY AND
MONDAY, SHOWER ACTIVITY LOOKS ISOLATED AND MAINLY CONFINED TO THE
MOUNTAINS. SOMEWHAT DRIER DEWPOINTS AND STAGNANT AIR MASS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE RIDGE KEEPS THE CHANCES FOR RAIN ALMOST NONEXISTENT. MODEL
GUIDANCE STARTS TO INCREASE POPS TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK, BUT
THIS IS MAINLY DUE TO THE RIDGE BREAKING DOWN AND A NEW TROUGH
DEVELOPING. THIS IS STILL TOO FAR OUT TO NAIL DOWN BUT THE GENERAL
PATTERN IS DRIER FOR THE NEXT WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 2: HOT AND HUMID WEATHER RETURNS BY TUESDAY, WITH
DANGEROUS HEAT INDEX VALUES LIKELY OVER THE LOW TERRAIN EACH
AFTERNOON THIS WEEK.
THOUGH RAIN CHANCES DECREASE, THE AMPLIFYING RIDGE BRINGS ANOTHER
ROUND OF HOT AND HUMID WEATHER. BY TUESDAY, THE RIDGE LOOKS TO PARK
OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND INCREASE TEMPS THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS TEMPS CREEPING BACK INTO THE MID AND UPPER 90S. WEAK
SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS ALSO CONTRIBUTE HIGHER DEWPOINTS, MEANING
HUMIDITY IS ALSO RETURNING FOR THE HUNDREDTH TIME THIS SUMMER. SO,
HOT TEMPS, ELEVATED DEWPOINTS, CAN ONLY PAINT ONE PICTURE: HEAT
INDEX VALUES IN THE 100-106 RANGE. THIS APPEARS TO OCCUR IN THE
EASTERN NC PIEDMONT AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES, AS USUAL. HEAT ADVISORIES
MAY BE NEEDED. DEPENDING ON HOW THE PATTERN EVOLVES, COULD SEE A
BREAK FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS POINT.
SUMMER ISN'T DONE WITH THE AREA YET, NO MATTER HOW MUCH WE ALL WANT
IT TO BE.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: CLOUDS SCATTER OUT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON,
LEAVING VFR CONDITIONS INTO A PORTION OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
MVFR/IFR CIGS COULD RETURN FOR KAVL AND KCLT, BUT CONFIDENCE IS
LOWER AT KCLT. THIS INCLUDES MVFR VSBY AT KCLT FROM 08Z-13Z
POSSIBLE. LIGHT WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTH BECOME CALM OVERNIGHT AND ARE
VERY SLOW TO PICK UP MONDAY. EXPECT VRB OR EVEN CALM WINDS THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK: ISOLATED MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP
AGAIN ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. FOG AND LOW STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH
MORNING, ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
CP
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