788
FXUS62 KGSP 111052
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
652 AM EDT SUN OCT 11 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
KEY MESSAGES
1. THE REMNANTS OF ISAIAS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS TODAY. A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH FROM THE REMNANT
LOW WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA TODAY BRINGING AN END TO THE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. UNTIL THEN, HEAVY RAIN ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN,
ALONG WITH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE THROUGH. GUSTY
WINDS CONTINUE AS WELL.
2. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS A DRIER AIRMASS BUILDS BACK INTO THE
REGION. AFTER THAT, DRY WEATHER WITH A WARMING TREND INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: THE REMNANTS OF ISAIAS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TODAY. A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH FROM THE
REMNANT LOW WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA TODAY BRINGING AN END TO THE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. UNTIL THEN, HEAVY RAIN ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN,
ALONG WITH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE THROUGH. GUSTY WINDS
CONTINUE AS WELL.
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ISAIAS IS NOW CENTERED OVER MIDDLE TN AND WILL
MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TODAY. A COLD FRONT EXTENDING
SOUTH FROM THE REMNANT LOW WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA AND MOVE TO
OUR EAST BY AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE. ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CONVECTION, KEEPING ONGOING FLOODING IN PLACE
AND POTENTIALLY CREATING NEW FLOODING. ELEVATED INSTABILITY AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WILL KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST. LOW LEVEL SHEAR REMAINS HIGH, SO ANY STORM THAT CAN TAP
THE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR, COULD BECOME SEVERE AND POSSIBLY CREATING
A BRIEF TORNADO. THE GOOD NEWS IS ALL THIS IS OCCURRING DURING THE
MORE CLIMATOLOGICALLY UNFAVORABLE MORNING HOURS. THE BETTER CHANCES
OF SEVERE STORMS WILL BE TO OUR EAST, BUT OF COURSE, WE'LL KEEP AN
EYE ON ANY STORMS. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE UNTIL
THE HEAVIER SHOWERS MOVE EAST.
WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED BUT LOW END GUSTY SE WINDS WILL CONTINUE AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT. THE WINDS TURN SW AND REMAIN GUSTY BEHIND THE
FRONT, EVENTUALLY TURNING NW ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. WINDS DIMINISH
OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE EVENING BUT GUSTY WINDS LINGER
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.
ALTHOUGH CLEARING TAKES PLACE BEHIND THE FRONT, SOME LINGERING
MOISTURE AND THE DEVELOPING UPSLOPE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL KEEP
SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE COUNTIES ALONG THE TN BORDER. THIS WILL
HAVE LIGHT QPF AND SHOULD NOT CAUSE ANY ADDITIONAL FLOODING.
KEY MESSAGE 2: GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS A DRIER AIRMASS BUILDS BACK
INTO THE REGION. AFTER THAT, DRY WEATHER WITH A WARMING TREND INTO
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
WIND GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS, GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF MONDAY. OTHERWISE, A DEVELOPING
UPPER RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER FOR MOST OF THE WORK WEEK,
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND TEMPS TRENDING WELL ABOVE NORMAL TUE-THU. A
COLD FRONT LATE IN THE WEEK SHOULD BRING TEMPERATURES BACK NEAR OR
BELOW NORMAL.
AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: CONVECTION ALONG THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
EAST OF THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. IFR AHEAD OF THE FRONT BECOMES
MVFR BEHIND. SE WIND AHEAD OF THE FRONT BECOMES SW AND GUSTY BEHIND
IT. EXPECT LOW VFR AND/OR SCATTERING OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS
DIMINISH IN THE EVENING WITH A MORE WSW DIRECTION. KAVL SEES A TURN
TO THE NW FOR THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS DEVELOPING. MVFR CIGS MAY
LINGER THERE INTO THE EVENING OR EVEN OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK: VFR WITH GUSTY NW WIND ON MONDAY. VFR OUTSIDE OF MOUNTAIN
VALLEY FOG TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, WITH LIGHT WINDS. A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT COULD BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION AND RESTRICTIONS THURSDAY.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR GAZ010-017-018-
026-028-029.
NC...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NCZ033-049-050-
052-053-059-062>065-501>510.
SC...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR SCZ010>012-019-
101>109.
RWH
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page