819
FXUS62 KGSP 251050
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
650 AM EDT THU JUN 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED THE AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 12Z TAFS.
TEMPERATURES AND HEAT INDICES ARE TRENDING WARMER FOR THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.
KEY MESSAGES
1. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN BY THE END OF THE WEEK
AND CONTINUE THRU THE WEEKEND.
2. TEMPERATURES TREND WARMER THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT
WEEK, WITH TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT INDICES POSSIBLE ACROSS MOST OF OUR
LOWER TERRAIN.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN BY THE END OF
THE WEEK AND CONTINUE THRU THE WEEKEND.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE SOUTHEAST TODAY HELPING
TO KEEP OUR FCST AREA MOSTLY DRY. ON FRIDAY, THE AREA REMAINS
UNDER MOSTLY ZONAL, STAGNANT FLOW ALOFT WHILE THE BERMUDA HIGH
REASSERTS ITSELF OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC AND SPREADS WESTWARD.
THIS WILL ADVECT DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE SOUTHEAST, BRINGING
INCREASED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EACH AFTERNOON THRU
THE WEEKEND. THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS INCREASED THE SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS MOST OF OUR CWA FOR FRIDAY. OVER
THE WEEKEND, THE HIGHER CHANCES REMAIN MOSTLY OVER THE NC MTNS.
AT THIS TIME, SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
KEY MESSAGE 2: TEMPERATURES TREND WARMER THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
INTO NEXT WEEK, WITH TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT INDICES POSSIBLE ACROSS
MOST OF OUR LOWER TERRAIN.
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS LOOKING MORE FAVORABLE FOR WARMER TEMPERA-
TURES AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS, ESPECIALLY BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
THIS INCREASES THE CHANCES FOR 100+ DEGREE HEAT INDICES ACROSS POR-
TIONS OF OUR FCST AREA. THE LATEST LONG-RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SPREAD STOUT UPPER RIDGING FURTHER EAST AND OVER OUR REGION DURING
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. AS THIS RIDGE MOVES EASTWARD AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST, TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB. WE STILL
EXPECT TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY TO REACH THE MID 90S ACROSS
MUCH OF OUR LOWER TERRAIN, WITH UPPER 90S POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF
THE PIEDMONT. THESE TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS WILL
LIKELY PRODUCE HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 100 TO 103 DEGREES EACH AFTERNOON
FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF I-77 AND AREAS SOUTH OF I-85. AS THE RIDGE
SPREADS FURTHER EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK, HEAT INDICES MAY TOP OUT EVEN
HIGHER, ESPECIALLY BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ALTHOUGH THE EXACT
VALUES WILL LIKELY CHANGE A BIT AS WE GO FORWARD, OUR CONFIDENCE IS
INCREASING THAT A GOOD PORTION OF OUR NON-MTN ZONES WILL SEE 100+
DEGREE HEAT INDICES BY THE MID-WEEK. FURTHERMORE, PORTIONS OF OUR
CWA COULD SEE ADVISORY LEVEL HEAT INDICES OF 105 DEGREES. THIS LEVEL
OF HEAT AFFECTS ANYONE WITHOUT EFFECTIVE COOLING OR ADEQUATE HYDRATION.
IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS BE SURE TO PROPERLY HYDRATE, WEAR LIGHT CLOTHING,
AND TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS TO AVOID OVERHEATING.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: EXPECT DRY, VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE
THRU THE 12Z TAF PERIOD WITH BKN CIRRUS THIS MORNING GIVING WAY
TO FEW/SCT VFR CLOUDS FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. MTN VALLEY FOG
HAS SETTLED OVER THE USUAL AREAS, BUT SHOULD NOT REACH KAVL THIS
MORNING. OTHERWISE, WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE
AREA THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THRU THE DAY. AT THE
SAME TIME, THE BERMUDA HIGH WILL BEGIN TO REASSERT ITSELF AND
WINDS WILL PICK UP FROM SW THIS AFTERNOON. THEY WILL GO LIGHT
AND VRB TO CALM LATER THIS EVENING.
OUTLOOK: SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND ASSOCIATED RE-
STRICTIONS INCREASE AGAIN FRIDAY ONWARD, ESPECIALLY OVER THE
NC MTNS.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
JPT
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