484
FXUS62 KGSP 281814
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
214 PM EDT TUE APR 28 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
1. ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY,
FOLLOWED BY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, A FEW
OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE OVER WESTERN NC.
2. AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF COOLER AND MUCH DRIER WEATHER THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY, ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN IS LIKELY TO IMPACT MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. DRY WEATHER RETURNS
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND EARLY
WEDNESDAY, FOLLOWED BY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON,
A FEW OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE OVER WESTERN NC.
LINGERING CLOUDINESS BEHIND A DEPARTING BAND OF PRECIP WILL HELP
TO KEEP AFTERNOON TEMPS A LITTLE ON THE COOL SIDE. FEW CHANGES
WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT. CAN'T RULE OUT FOG
DEVELOPING IN A FEW LOCATIONS WITH VISIBILITY BECOMING POOR DURING
THE PRE-DAWN HOURS WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT BATCH OF PRECIP,
BUT NOTHING SUGGESTS MUCH DENSE FOG POTENTIAL. WHICH BRINGS US TO
LATE TONIGHT. THE CAMS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE DECAYING REMNANTS OF
AN MCS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE AGREEMENT IS
THERE AMONG THE CAMS, WHICH GIVES CONFIDENCE TO KEEPING A LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL PRECIP PROB. THE CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER OR FLOODING
RAIN THRU MOST OF WEDNESDAY MORNING LOOK VERY LOW AT THIS TIME AS
THE MCS REMNANTS OUTRUN THE FORCING AND INSTABILITY.
THAT MAY NOT NECESSARILY BE THE CASE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, ASSUMING THE NEXT BATCH OF PRECIP MAKES STEADY EASTWARD
PROGRESS OUT OF THE FCST AREA BY MIDDAY AND WE MANAGE TO BREAK
OUT. FCST SOUNDINGS FROM THE RAP SHOW A MIXED LAYER CAPE UPWARDS
OF 1500 J/KG LATE IN THE AFTERNOON EAST OF THE MTNS, TO GO WITH
DEEP LAYER SHEAR UPWARDS OF 50 KT. SO, THE MARGINAL RISK SEEMS
PERFECTLY VALID IN THAT REGARD, BUT COULD END UP BEING CONDITIONAL
UPON BEING ABLE TO MAINTAIN STORMS. THE CAMS FOR THE MOST PART
APPEAR TO STRUGGLE TO DEVELOP ANYTHING OTHER THAN ORDINARY SHOWERS
AND A FEW STORMS SCATTERED ABOUT, SO HARDLY ANYTHING THAT APPEARS
CONCERNING. WE WILL HAVE TO WAIT FOR LATER RUNS OF THE CAMS TO
SEE IF THEY LATCH ON TO ANYTHING IN THE ENVIRONMENT AND START TO
DEPICT ANYTHING OF SUBSTANCE. OTHERWISE, TEMPS WILL REMAIN MILD
OVERNIGHT AND THEN WILL GET BACK TO FIVE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL OR
SO FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS.
KEY MESSAGE 2: AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF COOLER AND MUCH DRIER WEATHER
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN IS LIKELY TO IMPACT
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. DRY WEATHER
RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AN UPPER LOW WILL MEANDER AROUND THE BORDER BETWEEN QUEBEC AND
ONTARIO FROM THURSDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH THE AXIS OF AN
ASSOCIATED BROAD/LOW-AMPLITUDE TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH THROUGH MUCH
OF THE EASTERN CONUS. AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH
THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA WED EVENING, WITH TOKEN POPS LINGERING
INTO WED EVENING ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA, AS WELL AS THE NC COUNTIES BORDERING TN...WHERE A DEVELOPING
NW/UPSLOPE FLOW COULD SUPPORT SHOWER DEVELOPMENT THROUGH AT LEAST
WED EVENING. COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE
FRONT FOR THU, WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO NEAR-NORMAL LEVELS FOR THU
AND THU NIGHT.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FRIDAY, AS A DAMPENING SHORT WAVE TROUGH
EJECTS FROM TEXAS INTO THE BASE OF THE EASTERN TROUGH FRI/FRI
NIGHT. FRONTOGENESIS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE LINGERING BAROCLINIC
ZONE OVER THE SOUTHEAST FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, AND THIS WILL
BRING THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN TO OUR CWA, WITH WARRANTING LIKELY
POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA, WITH MORE LIKE SOLID
CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTH. EVEN ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS...THIS EVENT
APPEARS UNLIKELY TO PUT MUCH OF A DENT IN THE LONGER TERM DROUGHT
CONDITIONS, BUT EVERY LITTLE BIT HELPS. RAIN AND/OR CLOUD COVER
IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN SATURDAY MAX TEMPS AROUND 10 DEGREES
BELOW CLIMO, WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPING IN THE WAKE
OF A WESTERN ATLANTIC CYCLONE RESULTING IN TEMPS REMAINING 5-10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. A DRY AIR MASS OTHERWISE
ACCOMPANIES THE COOLER AIR, WHILE TEMPS STEADILY WARM TO AROUND
NORMAL MONDAY/TUESDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: THE PRECIP HAS MOVED OFF WELL TO THE
SOUTHEAST, BUT A LINGERING LOW CLOUD DECK EAST OF THE MTNS WILL
KEEP AN MVFR CIG RESTRICTION THROUGH THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON
BEFORE IT FINALLY SCATTERS OUT. SOME BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WILL
ALLOW FOR OCCASIONAL GUSTS THROUGH PEAK HEATING IN SPITE OF THE
RELATIVELY LOW CLOUDS, DIRECTION SW TO S. OUR LULL IN ACTIVITY
SHOULD END AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE NEXT BATCH OF CLOUDS AND PRECIP
ARRIVE WITH ANOTHER MCS REMNANT. THIS WILL NOT BE QUITE THE SAME
AS THERE APPEARS TO BE LITTLE SUPPORT FOR THUNDERSTORMS, BUT MORE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INITIALLY, SO THE RESTRICTIONS BEGIN AS THE
RAIN IS MOVING IN. PROBS ARE FAIRLY HIGH, SO AFTER A SHORT PERIOD
WHERE THE ONSET TIME IS IN DOUBT, WE GO STRAIGHT TO PREVAILING
MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS WITH THE PRECIP. THE WIND DIRECTION SHOULD
STAY SOUTHERLY. ONCE THAT BATCH OF RAIN MOVES OUT BY MID-MORNING,
WE WILL AGAIN HAVE A SLOW IMPROVEMENT OF CEILING, BUT WE MAY NOT
LOSE THE RESTRICTION BEFORE THE END OF THE PERIOD.
OUTLOOK: DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS MAY RETURN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY BEFORE ANOTHER DISTURBANCE BRINGS RAIN CHANCES AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS OVER THE WEEKEND.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
JDL/PM
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