349
FXUS62 KGSP 192318
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
718 PM EDT MON OCT 19 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
LOWERED DEWPOINTS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST, TO ACCOUNT FOR STRONGER AND DEEPER MIXING DEPICTED IN
RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE.
UPDATED THE AVIATION FORECAST TO REFLECT THE RECENT 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
1. LOW-END FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOONS.
2. CLEAR SKIES AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES PERSIST INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: LOW-END FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUESDAY
AFTERNOONS.
DAYTIME MIXING SHOULD BE A LITTLE LESS PRONOUNCED TOMORROW, AS
THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER PULLS FARTHER NORTHEAST AND LOW-LEVEL
FLOW WEAKENS IN RESPONSE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO EXHIBIT MORE
PROMINENT SUBSIDENCE ATOP THE PBL, WHICH SHOULD FURTHER INHIBIT
DEEP MIXING. SOME DEGREE OF A DEWPOINT DROP AND ANOTHER BREEZY
AFTERNOON ARE NONETHELESS EXPECTED, BUT RH VALUES SHOULD CRASH LESS
THAN ON MONDAY, AND WIND GUSTS SHOULD BE LOWER, AND LESS FREQUENT.
BY WEDNESDAY, THE COMPLETE LOSS OF STRONG LOW-LEVEL CAA AND AN EVEN
STRONGER SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SHOULD REDUCE FIRE DANGER CONCERNS
EVEN FURTHER.
KEY MESSAGE 2: CLEAR SKIES AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES PERSIST INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN STILL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL EVOLVE INTO AN OMEGA-
LIKE BLOCKING PATTERN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. AS AN UPPER
LOW OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST RETREATS NORTHEASTWARD ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AND HEIGHTS BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS, STATIONARY UPPER
TROUGHING WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED EAST OF THE AREA, BEFORE THE RIDGE
SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE CAROLINAS OVER THE WEEKEND.
FOR OUR PART, WE CAN EXPECT MOSTLY-CLEAR SKIES, WITH TEMPERATURES
SLOWLY BUT STEADILY TRENDING WARMER THROUGH THE WEEK. HIGHS MAY BE
A SOLID CATEGORY ABOVE NORMAL BY THURSDAY (WHICH FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR, IS STILL IN THE MID 70S!). LONG-RANGE ENSEMBLES HAVE BEGUN TO
FORM AN UNSTEADY CONSENSUS FOR A WEAK REINFORCING COLD FRONT TO
ARRIVE FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT, DRIVING TEMPERATURES BACK BELOW
NORMAL GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. AS USUAL AT THIS TIMESCALE,
CONFIDENCE IS ONLY MODERATE.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT WITH SEVERAL LOCATIONS LIKELY BECOMING CALM WITH LIGHT
NORTHEAST WINDS RETURNING DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.
OUTLOOK: DRY, VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK, AND INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. PATCHY MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG AND LOW STRATUS MAY BE POSSIBLE
EACH MORNING.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MPR/TW
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