615  
FXUS62 KGSP 181755  
AFDGSP  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC  
155 PM EDT FRI JUL 18 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
DAILY MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES  
CONTINUE THROUGH THE START OF NEXT WEEK. A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE  
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. A WEAK COLD FRONT  
SLOWLY CROSSES OUR AREA FROM THE NORTH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.  
THIS FRONT WILL TEMPORARILY BRING TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL INTO  
MID WEEK.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
 
 
AS OF 140 PM FRIDAY: A 597 DAM ANTICYCLONE WILL DRIFT WESTWARD OVER  
FL TONIGHT, KEEPING THE JET STREAM TO OUR NORTH. A QUASI-STATIONARY  
FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST  
IS EXPECT TO NUDGE SLIGHTLY FURTHER NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA  
THRU SATURDAY. DIURNAL CONVECTION IS KICKING OFF LIKE USUAL  
ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN, AND SHOULD REMAIN MOST NUMEROUS OVER  
THE NC MOUNTAINS. A WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY STEERING FLOW WILL TRY TO  
CARRY SOME ACTIVITY EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN NC FOOTHILLS AND NW  
PIEDMONT. AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-40 HAVE THE HIGHEST DCAPE  
AND MLCAPE IN THE FORECAST AREA PER LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS,  
AND MARGINAL EFFECTIVE SHEAR AROUND 25 KT COULD HELP STORMS  
ORGANIZE AROUND OUTFLOWS INTO MULTICELL CLUSTERS. SO THERE MAY BE  
A FEW SEVERE STORMS PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. LOCALLY HEAVY  
RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WHERE STORMS MANAGE TO ANCHOR OR  
TRAIN. ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MUCH MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE ACROSS  
THE LOWER PIEDMONT ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-85. TEMPS ARE ON TRACK,  
BUT DEWPTS ARE MIXING OUT A LITTLE MORE THAN EXPECTED, WITH EVEN  
SOME GUSTINESS SEEN IN THE EARLY AFTN METARS. THE MESONET OBS  
NOTWITHSTANDING, IT LOOKS LIKE THE HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL  
STRUGGLE TO BE MET THIS AFTN.  
 
TONIGHT, CONVECTION SHOULD WANE, WITH A FEW STRAY SHOWERS  
POSSIBLE INTO THE OVERNIGHT. MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG WILL BE LIKELY,  
BUT OTHERWISE, SKIES BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS WILL BE A CATEGORY  
OR SO ABOVE NORMAL.  
 
SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE ALMOST A CARBON COPY OF TODAY, WITH ONLY  
SUBTLE CHANGES IN THE AIR MASS AND OVERALL FLOW. GIVEN THE MIXING  
OCCURRING TODAY, HAVE BLENDED IN THE NBM 10TH PERCENTILE DEWPTS TO  
LOWER THEM A FEW DEG DURING PEAK HEATING. THIS KEEPS HEAT INDICES  
MOSTLY BELOW 105 DEGREES. THERE MAY BE A NEED FOR ANOTHER HEAT  
ADVISORY FOR MECKLENBURG, CABARRUS, AND UNION; BUT CONFIDENCE IS  
TOO LOW AND WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THE CURRENT ADVISORY EXPIRES AND  
REASSESS. GREENWOOD, ABBEVILLE, AND ELBERT ARE ALSO CLOSE TO 105  
HEAT INDEX, SO MAY NEED ONE IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES. OTHERWISE,  
SIMILAR TREND OF TIMING AND COVERAGE OF DIURNAL CONVECTION. ALSO,  
SIMILAR ENVIRONMENT FOR A FEW STRONG PULSE STORMS AND ISOLATED FLASH  
FLOOD THREAT (AGAIN MAINLY NC MOUNTAINS AND I-40 CORRIDOR EAST).  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
AS OF 1205 PM EDT FRIDAY: MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL SLIDE SLOWLY  
WESTWARD THROUGH THE SHORT RANGE PERIOD, BUT WILL ACT TO KEEP HOT  
AND HUMID CONDITIONS IN PLACE REGARDLESS. HIGHS BOTH SUNDAY AND  
MONDAY WILL BE 3-4 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGH DEWPOINTS LEADING  
TO HEAT INDICES NEAR ADVISORY CRITERIA IN OUR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN  
AREAS.  
 
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  
POPS WILL BE PRETTY HIGH IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH LOWER POPS IN THE  
PIEDMONT. OVERALL, PRETTY TYPICAL CONDITIONS FOR LATE JULY.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
 
 
AS OF 1210 PM EDT FRIDAY: MID LEVEL RIDGING BRIEFLY PUSHING WEST  
WILL ALLOW A WEAK COLD FRONT TO IMPACT THE AREA TUESDAY WITH  
SLIGHTLY LESS HOT TEMPERATURES, I.E. NEAR NORMAL. THE RIDGE WILL  
REBUILD THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK, SO HIGHS WILL CLIMB BACK TO  
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AFTER TUESDAY.  
 
POPS WILL BE THE HIGHEST WITH THE FRONT ON TUESDAY AND THEN SLOWLY  
GET LOWER THROUGH THE WEEK.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON/EVENING  
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND  
ADJACENT FOOTHILLS WHERE A TEMPO WILL BE CARRIED FOR KAVL AND KHKY.  
ELSEWHERE, COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE LOWER WITH JUST A PROB30S  
BEING CARRIED. MORE MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG IS EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT  
WITH SOME IMPACTS ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS ALSO POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE, THE  
REST OF THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN VFR. SATURDAY LOOKS VERY SIMILAR TO  
TODAY, WITH CONVECTION FIRING TOWARD THE END OF THE 18Z TAF PERIOD.  
HAVE A PROB30 FOR KCLT FOR 21Z SAT TO 00Z SUN.  
 
OUTLOOK: THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING. LOW STRATUS  
OR FOG ARE POSSIBLE EACH MORNING IN MOUNTAIN/RIVER VALLEYS.  
 

 
   
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
GA...NONE.  
NC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ071-072-082.  
SC...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
SYNOPSIS...DEO  
NEAR TERM...ARK  
SHORT TERM...SCW  
LONG TERM...SCW  
AVIATION...ARK  
 
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