558
FXUS62 KGSP 260520
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
120 AM EDT MON OCT 26 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES HAVE TRENDED HIGHER FOR THE COMING WEEKEND.
UPDATED THE AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE RECENT 06Z TAF ISSUANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
1. PATCHY FROST IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY DAWN ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE NC MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. A FROST ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT
FOR THOSE MOUNTAIN ZONES THAT WERE NOT TURNED OFF DURING THE MOST
RECENT FREEZE.
2. DRY HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER OUR REGION
THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING BACK ABOVE
NORMAL. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: PATCHY FROST IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY DAWN ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE NC MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. A FROST ADVISORY IS
IN EFFECT FOR THOSE MOUNTAIN ZONES THAT WERE NOT TURNED OFF DURING
THE MOST RECENT FREEZE.
A STOUT UPPER RIDGE REMAINS CENTERED JUST TO OUR WEST AND EXTENDS
ALL THE WAY TO THE GREAT LAKES, WHILE A 1030MB SFC HIGH CENTERED
JUST TO OUR NORTH CONTINUES TO SUPPORT WEAK COLD-AIR DAMMING ACROSS
THE WESTERN CAROLINAS. BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT WINDS
OVERNIGHT AND INTO MON MORNING SHOULD ALLOW FOR PATCHY FROST TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE NC MOUNTAINS, AND SOME PARTS OF THE NC FOOTHILLS
ALONG THE I-40 CORRIDOR. ALTHOUGH COVERAGE IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE
LIMITED BASED ON THE CURRENT TEMPERATURE FCST, LOW TEMPERATURES MAY
END UP BOTTOMING-OUT LOWER THAN EXPECTED UNDER THE IDEAL RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS CURRENTLY IN PLACE. AS A RESULT, A FROST ADVISORY
REMAINS IN PLACE FROM 2 AM UNTIL 8 AM MONDAY MORNING FOR THOSE
ZONES ACROSS THE NC MTNS THAT HAVE NOT ALREADY BEEN "TURNED OFF"
FOR THE COOL SEASON BASED ON A PRIOR FREEZE. THIS INCLUDES MOST
OF THE MTNS SOUTH OF I-26, AS WELL AS BURKE AND CALDWELL COUNTIES
AND EASTERN MCDOWELL COUNTY, ALONG THE I-40 CORRIDOR.
KEY MESSAGE 2: DRY HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER OUR
REGION THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING BACK
ABOVE NORMAL. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE THIS WEEKEND.
THE DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WORK WEEK ACROSS
OUR AREA. A STOUT UPPER RIDGE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE
MS RIVER VALLEY TO OUR WEST. THE RESULTING BLOCKING PATTERN IS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, HOWEVER
THE SOUTHEAST WILL REMAIN UNDER BROAD UPPER RIDGING THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. AT THE SURFACE, BROAD HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
LINGER OVER THE SOUTHEAST AS PROFILES REFLECT A FAIRLY DEEP DRY
LAYER OF AIR ACROSS THE REGION. ON TUESDAY, ANOTHER CP AIRMASS
WILL SETTLE OVER THE NE, REINFORCING THE LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR AND
BRINGING MARGINALLY COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY. NONETHELESS,
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB BACK ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END
OF THE WEEK AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD AND OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST.
ANOTHER REINFORCING/BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE
OVER THE WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY RE-ESTABLISH SOME AMOUNT OF COLD-AIR
DAMMING ACROSS OUR AREA. THIS COUPLED WITH THE BREAKDOWN OF THE
UPPER BLOCKING PATTERN MENTIONED ABOVE, MAY ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE
IN LOW-LVL ISENTRO- PIC ASCENT ACROSS OUR AREA AND PRODUCE SOME
SHOWERS OVER THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: VERY LIGHT N TO NE WINDS THIS MORNING
WHEN NOT CALM. CONDITIONS STILL APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR BRIEF
VALLEY/RIVER FOG, AFFECTING KAVL AND KHKY WITH TEMPOS. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN MAINLY IN THE 4-7 KT RANGE TODAY, STILL MAINLY
N TO NE. PERIODS OF CALM ARE EXPECTED AROUND THE AREA TONIGHT,
WITH ONLY A FEW CIRRUS SEEN. VALLEY/RIVER FOG CAN'T BE RULED OUT
TONIGHT, BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AND ANY FOG WOULD MOST LIKELY
BE AFTER 06Z TUE ANYWAY.
OUTLOOK: MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WORK
WEEK. MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG AND LOW STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH
MORNING. MOISTURE APPEARS LIKELY TO INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ051-052-058-
059-062>065-501>504-506.
SC...NONE.
JPT/JCW
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