809
FXUS62 KGSP 220553
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1253 AM EST THU JAN 22 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MINOR INCREASES IN PRECIP CHANCES FOR PATCHY LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA TODAY.
A WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.
KEY MESSAGES
1. PERIODS OF SCATTERED LIGHT PRECIP THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH SOME
POTENTIAL FOR VERY LIGHT WINTRY WEATHER ACROSS THE HIGH ELEVATIONS
THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE, RAIN IS EXPECTED.
2. WINTER STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING HEAVY MIXED
PRECIPITATION TO THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA, LEADING TO HAZARDOUS
TRAVEL AND POWER OUTAGES THAT MAY LAST FOR DAYS.
3. DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS MAY DEVELOP MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING WHICH COULD RESULT IN HYPOTHERMIA OR FROSTBITE
IF PRECAUTIONS ARE NOT TAKEN.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: PERIODS OF SCATTERED LIGHT PRECIP THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH
SOME POTENTIAL FOR VERY LIGHT WINTRY WEATHER ACROSS THE HIGH
ELEVATIONS THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE, RAIN IS EXPECTED.
THE LEADING EDGE OF A VERY BROAD BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL SETTLE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA LATER THIS MORNING. THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL
STEADILY INTENSIFY THROUGH THE PERIOD, AS THE HEIGHT GRADIENT WITHIN
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE EAST STRENGTHENS IN RESPONSE
TO UPPER LOW PASSING JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. A COUPLE OF
"FALSE STARTS" IN SURFACE DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE GULF COAST STATES ARE
ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH BOUTS OF FRONTOGENESIS SUPPORTING
PRECIP POTENTIAL ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF
PATCHY -RA ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA, WHERE MOSTLY CHANCE
POPS ARE ADVERTISED, EXCEPT FOR A SMALL AREA OF LIKELY ACROSS THE SC
LAKELANDS AND UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY. IN THE VERY NEAR
TERM...THERE IS SMALL POTENTIAL FOR A PATCHY WINTRY MIX THROUGH
DAYBREAK ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS, MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-
40, BUT THE PROBABILITY OF NOTEWORTHY/IMPACTFUL ACCUMS IS VERY LOW.
MAX TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM AROUND NORMAL ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA, TO SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO ALONG THE I-
40 CORRIDOR, WHERE LESS CLOUD COVER IS ANTICIPATED. MIN TEMPS
TONIGHT WILL BE AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
KEY MESSAGE 2: WINTER STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT SATURDAY MORNING
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING HEAVY
MIXED PRECIPITATION TO THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA, LEADING TO
HAZARDOUS TRAVEL AND POWER OUTAGES THAT MAY LAST FOR DAYS.
THE BIG STORY IS THE CONTINUED EVOLUTION OF THIS UPCOMING WINTER
STORM OVER THE WEEKEND. HIGH CONFIDENCE ON WIDESPREAD IMPACTS
PROMPTED A WINTER STORM WATCH TO BE ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. THIS
IS IN EFFECT FOR SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. AS
CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP ACCUMULATIONS INCREASES, WARNINGS ARE LIKELY TO
BE ISSUED. REGARDLESS OF PRECIP TYPE OF AMOUNTS, THE MOST IMPORTANT
ASPECT OF THIS SYSTEM TO UNDERSTAND ARE THE WIDESPREAD IMPACTS, FROM
HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS AND POWER OUTAGES LINGERING INTO THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. WITH THAT SAID, LET'S TALK PRECIPITATION.
SOME OF THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SLOWED THE SYSTEM DOWN A BIT,
DELAYING THE ONSET OF PRECIP TO LATER ON SATURDAY, RATHER THAN
FRIDAY NIGHT. WHILE THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA, THE COLDER AIR
APPEARS TO GET A SLIGHT DELAY IN ARRIVAL, THANKS IN PART TO A
DEVELOPING SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THIS COULD CREATE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT WITH MOISTURE LAGGING, AHEAD OF
THE COLDER AIR. WHAT THIS DOES IS HELP TO CREATE A WARM NOSE SOONER
THAN ORIGINALLY EXPECTED. A WARM NOSE MEANS MORE ICE/SLEET THAN
SNOW. THE TRANSITION ZONE HAS SHIFTED ONCE AGAIN TO THE NORTH, WITH
MODEL GUIDANCE HONING IN ON A MUCH HIGHER CHANCE FOR A SIGNIFICANT
ICE/SLEET EVENT FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF I-40. SO, AS IS MORE THE NORM
FOR THE SOUTH, THE SNOW IS HEADING NORTH AND THE ICE/SLEET LOOKS TO
BE THE DOMINANT P-TYPE AS OF NOW WITH THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE.
NOW, LET'S LOOK AT THE NBM 48-HOUR ACCUMULATION PROBABILITIES FOR
THIS STORM. FOR NOW, CURRENT DATA SHOWS THE SLEET CHANCES FOR
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY HAVE INCREASED TO 40-50% WITH FREEZING RAIN
CHANCES 60-70% EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS AND SOUTH OF I-40. CURRENT
PROJECTIONS OF TOTAL ICE ACCUMULATIONS FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BEING
GREATER THAN 0.25" ARE 65-85%, SO HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR WARNING
CRITERIA FOR ICE BEING MET EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. LOCATIONS OF
UPSTATE SC AND INTO THE NC PIEDMONT HAVE A 40-50% CHANCE OF TOTAL
ICE ACCUMULATIONS GREATER THAN 0.5". AS FOR SNOW, THE LIKELIHOOD OF
SNOW ACCUMS GREATER THAN 4" ARE 35-45% FOR LOCATIONS NORTH OF I-40.
AT THIS POINT, ICE/SLEET ARE BECOMING THE MAIN P-TYPES FOR THE
MAJORITY OF THE CWA AS SNOW GETS SHUNTED FURTHER NORTH.
DETAILS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THOROUGHLY LOOKED OVER WITH EACH
FORECAST CYCLE LEADING UP TO THIS WEEKEND, INCLUDING A BETTER IDEA
OF TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS. BUT THE MAIN FOCUS AT THIS TIME SHOULD BE
PREPARATIONS FOR A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM. REGARDLESS OF THE
INDIVIDUAL P-TYPES, THE IMPORTANT THING TO NOTE IS THERE WILL BE
PLENTY OF QPF WITH THIS STORM. WINTRY PRECIP, WHETHER IT'S ICE,
SLEET, OR SNOW ARE GOING TO HAVE WIDESPREAD IMPACTS MAKING FOR
HAZARDOUS TRAVEL AND POWER OUTAGES THAT COULD LAST FOR DAYS. PREPARE
AN EMERGENCY KIT FOR YOUR CAR/HOME AND REPLENISH FUEL FOR YOUR CAR
AND OTHER HEATING SOURCES SUCH AS GENERATORS. REMEMBER TO KEEP
GENERATOR OUTDOORS AND AT LEAST 20 FT AWAY FROM ENTRY POINTS TO
AVOID CARBON MONOXIDE POISONING. DON'T FORGET ABOUT YOUR PETS. KEEP
ENOUGH NON-PERISHABLE FOOD, WATER, AND MEDICATIONS FOR AT LEAST 3
DAYS. ENSURE YOU HAVE WARM CLOTHING AND BLANKETS AS WELL AS AN
UPDATED FIRST AID/EMERGENCY KIT. CHARGE YOUR PHONE AND DEVICES IN
ADVANCE SO THAT YOU ARE ABLE TO RECEIVE ALERTS.
KEY MESSAGE 3: DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS MAY DEVELOP MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING WHICH COULD RESULT IN HYPOTHERMIA OR FROSTBITE
IF PRECAUTIONS ARE NOT TAKEN.
BEHIND THIS WINTER STORM OVER THE WEEKEND, HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO
REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURE WITH FRIGID TEMPERATURES LINGERING.
CURRENT GUIDANCE DECREASES TEMPERATURES EVEN MORE AND INCREASES THE
CHANCES FOR DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS. AT THIS TIME, CURRENT
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS WIND CHILLS BELOW ZERO FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND
TEENS IN MOST LOCATIONS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. A FEW LOCATIONS NORTH
OF I-40 COULD SEE WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. IF THIS TREND
CONTINUES, A WIDESPREAD COLD WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.
ADDITIONALLY, FRIGID TEMPERATURES COULD KEEP WINTER PRECIPITATION
AROUND LONGER, CONTINUING IMPACTS FOR TRAVEL. THESE EXTREMELY COLD
TEMPERATURES COULD ALSO HAVE SEVERE IMPACTS ON THOSE WHO EXPERIENCE
AN EXTENDED POWER OUTAGE. AGAIN, ENSURE YOU HAVE PLENTY OF BLANKETS
AND WARM CLOTHING TO KEEP WARM. REMEMBER TO AVOID BURNING FUELS LIKE
PROPANE OR GASOLINE INDOORS AS THIS INCREASES FIRE RISK AND CARBON
MONOXIDE POISONING.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE FOR THIS FORECAST CYCLE, WITH CIGS GENERALLY IN THE 045-060
RANGE POSSIBLE AT MOST SITES THIS MORNING. PATCHY -RA ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE TERMINAL FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED
TO LARGELY DISSIPATE BY DAYBREAK, BUT MAY RETURN FROM LATE MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON. CAN'T RULE OUT BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR...MAINLY
AT THE UPSTATE SC TERMINALS AND PERHAPS KCLT WITH ANY -RA, AND THIS
IS INCLUDED IN PROB30 GROUPS. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN LOWERING
THU EVENING, ESP AT THE UPSTATE TERMINALS AND KCLT, BUT SHOULD
GENERALLY REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE POTENTIAL
FOR SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL OTHERWISE CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. LIGHT WSW WINDS THIS MORNING
WILL BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE AT MOST SITES FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. RELATIVELY STRONG WINDS ALOFT EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL RESULT IN LLWS IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS, INCLUDING AT KAVL.
OUTLOOK: SHOWER CHANCES DECREASE LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY,
ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR CIG/VISBY RESTRICTIONS
EARLY FRIDAY. A MAJOR WINTER STORM IS FORECAST TO IMPACT THE ENTIRE
AREA BEGINNING SATURDAY MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY.
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS OF FREEZING RAIN/ICE AND SLEET ARE LIKELY
AT ALL TAF SITES. LONG TERM PREVAILING FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS SHOULD BE
EXPECTED INTO MONDAY WHEN THE SYSTEM FINALLY MOVES EAST.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON FOR GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029.
NC...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON FOR NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510.
SC...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON FOR SCZ008>014-019-101>109.
CP/JDL
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