929
FXUS62 KGSP 130528
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
128 AM EDT SAT AUG 13 2022
SYNOPSIS
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. GRADUALLY INCREASING MOISTURE IS EXPECTED NEXT
WEEK. OTHER THAN A BRIEF WARM-UP EARLY NEXT WEEK, TEMPERATURES ARE
AND EXPECTED TO REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
AS OF 100 AM EDT SATURDAY: WHAT LITTLE CONVECTION HAD PREVIOUSLY
LINGERED OVER THE FORECAST AREA HAS WRAPPED UP, SAVE FOR A SINGLE
COMPACT SHOWER OVER SOUTHERN ABBEVILLE COUNTY. NOT MUCH MORE
ACTIVITY IS LIKELY OVER THE UPSTATE AT THIS POINT, THOUGH A FEW
LIGHTER SHOWERS MAY PERSIST ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE ESCARPMENT EMBEDDED
IN EASTERLY FLOW RIDING UP THE TERRAIN. MID CLOUDS/HIGH-BASED
STRATOCU CONTINUE TO EXPAND THERE AND POINTS EAST, BUT COOLER/DRIER
AIR IS FILTERING IN FROM THE NORTH, WHICH SHOULD CONSTRICT THESE
CLOUDS AND KEEP THEM CONFINED TO THE WESTERN UPSTATE AND SOUTHERN
NC FOOTHILLS. IT SHOULD ALSO PROMOTE MIN TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL, DESPITE THE CLOUDS. FOG IS UNLIKELY EXCEPT MAYBE IN THE
NORMALLY MORE FOGGY LOCATIONS.
EVEN THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES OUT ON SATURDAY AND COOLER AND
DRIER HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY BUILDS MORE FULLY INTO THE AREA. THAT
SAID, THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND WEAK INSTABILITY FOR
ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE SMOKIES. HIGHS WILL BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL WITH DEW POINTS DROPPING INTO THE 50S ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA LEADING TO A REFRESHINGLY LOW HUMIDITY DAY.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 235 PM EDT FRIDAY: THE SHORT-TERM FCST PICKS UP AT 00Z ON
SUNDAY WITH EXTENSIVE UPPER RIDGING STILL DOMINATING THE WESTERN
2/3 OF THE CONUS WHILE FAIRLY DEEP/BROAD UPPER TROFING REMAINS
OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, THE
TROF AXIS IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHEAST OF NEW ENGLAND, YET UPPER
TROFING WILL REMAIN LARGELY IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THRU THE
END OF THE PERIOD LATE MONDAY. AT THE SFC, THE CENTER OF BROAD
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE TRANSLATING EASTWARD AND OVER THE ATLANTIC
COAST AS THE PERIOD BEGINS. BY LATE SUNDAY, ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH OUR FCST AREA FROM THE NW AND BRING AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE WITH IT. THE FRONTAL BNDY IS NOT EXPECTED TO ACTUALLY
MOVE THRU OUR CWA UNTIL LATE MONDAY AS THE PERIOD IS ENDING.
AS FOR THE SENSIBLE FCST, BOTH POPS AND QPF HAVE BEEN INCREASED
LATE SUNDAY THRU THE END OF THE PERIOD LATE MONDAY. HOWEVER, QPF
IS STILL NOT EXPECTED TO BE EXCESSIVE AND SHOULD NOT CAUSE ANY
SIGNIFICANT HYDRO ISSUES. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW NORMAL
BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 225 PM EDT FRIDAY: THE EXTENDED FCST PICKS UP AT 00Z
ON TUESDAY WITH BROAD UPPER TROFING STILL IN PLACE OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS AND EXTENSIVE RIDGING TO THE WEST. OVER THE NEXT
24 TO 48 HRS, THE UPPER TROF IS EXPECTED TO MORPH INTO A LARGE,
CLOSED UPPER LOW AND THEN EXPAND FURTHER WESTWARD. BY THE END
OF THE PERIOD LATE NEXT WEEK, THE TROF IS EXPECTED TO COVER
ROUGHLY THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. AT THE SFC, A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL BE MOVING EAST OF OUR CWA AS THE PERIOD BEGINS. IN
THE FRONT'S WAKE, WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO SPREAD BACK INTO
THE AREA FROM THE NORTH, HOWEVER THE LATEST LONG-RANGE GUIDANCE
HAS IT MAKING LESS SOUTHWARD PROGRESS INTO OUR AREA. AT THE SAME
TIME, THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS LOOKING MORE CHAOTIC/UNCERTAIN
WITH THE OPERATIONAL MODELS TRYING TO DEVELOP MULTIPLE SFC LOWS
OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND THEN MOVE THEM EASTWARD AND OFF THE SE
COAST. OVERALL, THE PATTERN IS TRENDING MORE ACTIVE WITH THE
ABOVE-MENTIONED HIGH NOT EXERTING AS MUCH INFLUENCE OVER OUR
AREA WITH SOLID-CHANCE POPS EACH DAY THRU DAY 7. TEMPS ARE ALSO
TRENDING COOLER THRU MOST OF THE PERIOD, WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO
START OUT ABOUT A CATEGORY BELOW NORMAL ON TUES, AND REMAIN 1
TO 2 CATEGORIES BELOW NORMAL THRU DAY 7.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: A QUEIT TAF PERIOD IS IN STORE FOR SATURDAY
AS ENELY FLOW PROMOTES DRYING OVER MOST OF THE AREA. A FEW SHOWERS
MAY CROP UP OVERNIGHT MAINLY NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE ESCARPMENT,
BUT WITH LITTLE OPERATIONAL IMPACT AND LITTLE LIKELIHOOD OF
AFFECTING ANY OF THE TAF SITES DIRECTLY. EXPECTING FEW/SCT VFR
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AS STRATOCU DEVELOP IN THE ENELY FLOW, THOUGH
INTERMITTENT MVFR CIGS ARE LIKELY IN AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS AS WELL,
WITH GUIDANCE INCREASINGL FAVORING ONLY INTERMITTENT COVERAGE OF LOW
CLOUDS. HAVE INCLUDED PREVAILING VFR WITH TEMPOS FOR MVFR THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, THEN FEW/SCT VFR-LEVEL CUMULUS ON SATURDAY.
AT KAVL, WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE NIGHT, BEFORE
VEERING AROUND TO THE SSE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK: MOISTURE SLOW RETURNS SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
EXPECT DIURNAL CONVECTIVE CHANCES TO SLOWLY INCREASE AS WELL.
FOG AND LOW STRATUS WILL DEVELOP EACH MORNING IN THE MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...ARK/MPR/RWH
SHORT TERM...JPT
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...MPR
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