947
FXUS62 KGSP 150001
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
701 PM EST WED JAN 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE AVIATION FORECAST WAS UPDATED TO REFLECT THE LATEST 00Z TAF
CYCLE.
NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE PUBLIC FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1. ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR ALONG THE NC-TN
BORDER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL IMPACTS
EXPECTED AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 3500 FT. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES
EXPANDED TO MORE LOCATIONS ALONG THE TN BORDER.
2. STRONG WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT POTENTIALLY CAUSING MINOR
TREE DAMAGE AND SPORADIC POWER OUTAGES IN HIGH ELEVATIONS OF
THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT THRU THURSDAY, PROMPTING WIND ADVISORY
THERE. DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS ALSO RESULT AND LAST IN SOME
AREAS THRU FRIDAY MORNING, SO COLD WEATHER ADVISORY ISSUED.
3. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS
AND EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORGIA FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
COULD RESULT IN MINOR TRAVEL ISSUES.
4. WINTER PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS EARLY
SUNDAY, HOWEVER CONFIDENCE WITH RESPECT TO TIMING AND AMOUNTS
REMAINS RELATIVELY LOW.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR ALONG
THE NC-TN BORDER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL
IMPACTS EXPECTED AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 3500 FT. WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES EXPANDED TO MORE LOCATIONS ALONG THE TN BORDER.
NO CHANGE TO THE GENERAL WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED THRU THURSDAY.
DEEP SHORTWAVE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY WILL
SWING OVER THE SOUTHEAST COASTAL STATES. ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS SET TO
PUSH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THIS EVENING. ON PREVIOUS
FORECAST CYCLES WE NOTED THAT DYNAMIC LIFT LOOKED TO PEAK BEFORE
PROFILES SATURATED IN LOW LEVELS AND WHILE TEMPERATURES COOLED AS
MUCH TO SUPPORT SNOW ACCUMS. THERE NOW APPEARS A BETTER CHANCE OF
OVERLAP IN THESE REGARDS, THOUGH THE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE DOES STILL
DRY OUT AFTER THE FRONT PASSES, SO ICE NUCLEATION ZONE STILL LOOKS
TO TRANSITION FROM MIDLEVELS DOWN TO THE PBL WITH RAPID COOLING
BEHIND THE FRONT AND TRANSITION TO NW FLOW UPSLOPE FORCING. THE PEAK
SNOW RATES STILL ARE FORECAST BETWEEN 00-06Z, AND AMOUNTS HAVE
INCREASED IN THAT TIME. AVERAGE SNOW TOTALS IN THE AREAS ABOVE 3500
FT ALONG THE TN BORDER HAVE RISEN TO WINTER WX ADVISORY LEVELS IN
ALL BUT AVERY, WHERE WE HAVE A POLICY OF NOT DOING ELEVATION SPLITS.
THE WINTER WX ADVISORY THUS HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO ALL THE BORDER
COUNTIES EXCEPT AVERY. EVEN ACCOUNTING FOR THE COOLER TEMPS TODAY,
STILL DID NOT SEE TEMPS FALL FAST ENOUGH IN LOWER ELEVATIONS TO
BRING THE BELOW-3500FT AREAS TO ADVISORY CRITERIA. OWING LARGELY TO
A SHALLOW CONVECTIVE LAYER DEPICTED ON PROG PROFILES 00-03Z THIS
EVENING, SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER RISES ABOVE 1 ON THE UPSLOPE SIDE OF
THE MOUNTAINS; GIVEN HI-RES MODELS INCORPORATED INTO MODEL BLEND
QPF, THIS ALSO PROBABLY ACCOUNTS FOR THE HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE
SMOKIES (ISOLATED SPOTS OVER 8 INCHES AT THE HIGHEST, UNPOPULATED
ELEVATIONS).
THE MOISTURE BECOMES SHALLOW BY EARLY THU MORNING SO RATES BECOME
LIGHT AGAIN IN THE NW FLOW AREAS AND TAPER TO FLURRIES FARTHER
DOWNSTREAM OVER THE MOUNTAINS. WITH STRONG AND GUSTY NW WINDS
CONTINUING THRU THE DAY THURSDAY, KEPT SLIGHT-CHANCE POPS GOING NEAR
THE TN BORDER THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON. THERE IS A SIGNAL FOR BLOWING
SNOW TO REDUCE VSBY WHERE HIGHER ACCUMS DO OCCUR. WINTER WX ADVISORY
GOES TIL NOON THU AS IT IS, BUT COULD NEED TO GO A BIT LONGER IF
THE BLOWING SNOW DOES VERIFY AND/OR IF ROADS REMAIN SNOW-COVERED.
KEY MESSAGE 2: STRONG WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT POTENTIALLY CAUSING
MINOR TREE DAMAGE AND SPORADIC POWER OUTAGES IN HIGH ELEVATIONS
OF THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT THRU THURSDAY, PROMPTING WIND ADVISORY
THERE. DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS ALSO RESULT AND LAST IN SOME
AREAS THRU FRIDAY MORNING, SO COLD WEATHER ADVISORY ISSUED.
WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER RISE TO AROUND WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA BEHIND THE FRONT THIS EVENING AND REMAIN AT SIMILAR
VALUES AS MIXING DEEPENS DIURNALLY THU. NBM GUSTS HAVE GENERALLY
VERIFIED PRETTY WELL IN RECENT HIGH-ELEVATION POST-FRONTAL EVENTS,
AND COVERAGE OF 46-58 MPH GUSTS ABOVE 3500 FT WAS HIGH ENOUGH
FROM THE BLACK MTNS NORTHEAST TO WARRANT WIND ADVISORY AT THOSE
ELEVATIONS IN BUNCOMBE, YANCEY, MITCHELL, PLUS ALL OF AVERY. WINDS
WILL REMAIN GUSTY THU NIGHT THOUGH BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.
TEMPERATURES SOLIDLY FALL INTO THE TEENS TONIGHT ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS, WITH LOWER TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
LOWER 20S IN THE FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT. IN HIGH ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS WIND CHILLS DIP BELOW -5F TONIGHT. MAXES WILL BE IN THE
TEENS IN THOSE AREAS THU, AND WITH CONTINUING WIND, THEY REMAIN
BELOW -5F IN SOME SPOTS THROUGH THE DAY, THEN FALL AGAIN THU NIGHT.
FOR SIMPLICITY, WILL KEEP COLD WX ADVISORY IN PLACE UNTIL 12Z FRI.
KEY MESSAGE 3: LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS
AND EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORGIA FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY COULD
RESULT IN MINOR TRAVEL ISSUES.
ON FRIDAY, ANOTHER UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO DIVE SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA
AND MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A BROAD BUT DEEP MID/UPPER TROF
WILL REMAIN TO OUR WEST THRU THE BULK OF THE WEEKEND. A LEADING UPPER
SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROF MAY BRING SOME AMOUNT DPVA AND
MID-LVL ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS THE MTNS FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING, HOWEVER THE MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THE TROF STILL APPEARS
MINIMAL OVERALL. LOW-LVL FLOW WILL REMAIN W TO WSW DUE TO THE ORIENTA-
TION OF THE TROF AXIS. SOME AMOUNT OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION FROM HIGHER-
BASED CLOUD COVER WILL PROBABLY MATERIALIZE, BUT MUCH OF IT COULD EVA-
PORATE BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND. SOME OF THE MODEL PROFILES SUGGEST
A WEAK, LOW-LVL WARM NOSE COULD BE IN PLACE DURING THE ONSET OF PRECIP.
HOWEVER, WITH RELATIVELY DRY LOW-LVL AIR IN PLACE, IT'S LIKELY THAT
TEMPERATURES WILL WET-BULB DOWN TO BELOW FREEZING AND ERODE ANY WARM
NOSE FAIRLY QUICKLY. TOTAL QPF IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE NO MORE THAN
0.1 TO 0.2 INCHES OF LIQUID. THIS TRANSLATES TO ROUGHLY AN INCH OF
SNOW OVER THE TN BORDER ZONES AND SOUTHWEST NC MTNS BY DAYBREAK SAT.
SOME OF THE MORE FAVORED AREAS COULD SEE CLOSER TO 2 INCHES, BUT THOSE
AREAS WILL LIKELY BE ISOLATED. A LIGHT DUSTING IS POSSIBLE OVER THE
MTNS OF NORTHEAST GA AND THE FAR NORTHWESTERN UPSTATE, BUT ANY ACCUMS
SHOULD REMAIN UNDER AN INCH.
OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND TO NEAR-NORMAL ON SAT AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE GETS PUSHED OFFSHORE AND THE STRENGTHENING W/SW FLOW PROVIDES
SOME AMOUNT OF DOWNSLOPE WARMING EAST OF THE MTNS.
KEY MESSAGE 4: WINTER PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS
EARLY SUNDAY, HOWEVER CONFIDENCE WITH RESPECT TO TIMING AND AMOUNTS
REMAINS RELATIVELY LOW.
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE THRU THE LATTER HALF
OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A DEEPENING UPPER TROF WILL
PUSH A COLD FRONT THRU THE REGION LATE SAT WITH COLDER AIR RETURNING
SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUN. THE ASSOCIATED DIGGING UPPER SHORTWAVE COULD
INDUCE SOME ROBUST FRONTOGENESIS AND ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE BACK OVER THE
COLD AIR EAST OF THE MTNS SUNDAY MORNING. AS SUCH, IF PRECIP DOES DEVE-
LOP OVER OUR EASTERN ZONES ON SUNDAY IT WOULD LIKELY BE MOSTLY SNOW.
THE CURRENT FCST STILL ONLY HAS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIP AND ONLY A
FEW HUNDRETHS OF AN INCH OF QPF DURING THIS TIME FRAME. IF PRECIP
CHANCES AND/OR AMOUNTS TREND HIGHER GOING FORWARD, IT'S MORE LIKELY
THAT THESE AREAS COULD GET SOME AMOUNT OF SNOW. OTHERWISE, TEMPERA-
TURES ARE EXPECTED TO COOL WELL-BELOW NORMAL FOR SUNDAY AND REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: A STRONG ARCTIC FRONT WILL BRING NORTHWEST
FLOW SNOW TO THE NC/TN BORDER COUNTIES THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
ALTHOUGH -SN IS NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE IT TO KAVL, THE TERMINAL COULD
SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF -RA AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE ON -RA IS LOW SO MAINTAINED A PROB30.
MVFR CIGS CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT KAVL THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS IT SHOULD REMAIN VFR AND
DRY THROUGH THE 00Z TAF PERIOD. WINDS AT KAVL HAVE ALREADY GONE NW,
WITH WINDS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS STILL SW AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WINDS
EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL GRADUALLY TURN NW BEHIND THE FRONT LATER
TONIGHT (~04Z-06Z). WIND GUSTS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE TERMINALS
THROUGH THE 00Z TAF PERIOD. GUSTS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL RANGE
MOSTLY FROM 18-24 KTS, WITH GUSTS AT KAVL RANGING FROM 25-35 KTS.
STRONGER WIND GUSTS CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT, ESPECIALLY AT
KAVL. CLOUD COVER WILL GRADUALLY SCATTER OUT EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS
BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT, BUT CLOUD COVER SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN LATE
THURSDAY MORNING INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK: DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS LINGER THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.
PRECIPITATION AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS MAY RETURN THIS WEEKEND,
BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR NCZ033-049-050-053.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 AM EST FRIDAY
FOR NCZ033-048>052-058-059-062-063.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST THURSDAY FOR NCZ048>052-
058.
SC...NONE.
AR/JCW/JPT
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