367
FXUS62 KGSP 270224
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1024 PM EDT FRI APR 26 2024
SYNOPSIS
A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF OUR AREA THIS EVENING. AFTER
THAT, WE CAN EXPECT A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE TAKES OVER. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 1020 PM FRIDAY: AREA OF RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH WARM FRONTAL
BAND/ISENTROPIC LIFT HAS DISSIPATED THIS EVENING. CLOUDS AND LIGHT
WINDS LINGER OVERNIGHT. TOKEN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ARE RETAINED
THROUGH OVERNIGHT INTO THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ALONG THE EASTERN BLUE
RIDGE ESCARPMENT, AS A S/SE/WEAK UPSLOPE REGIME IS FORECAST TO
PERSIST. WITH CLOUD COVER REMAINING EXTENSIVE, MIN TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
OTHERWISE, 1030+ MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND IS
EXPECTED TO OOZE SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND IS FORECAST
TO BE CENTERED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES OFF THE UPPER MID-ATLANTIC
COAST BY SATURDAY EVENING. THIS MOVEMENT OF THE PARENT HIGH INTO A
LESS FAVORABLE LOCATION WILL RESULT IN GRADUAL CESSATION OF
NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW AND MODIFICATION OF WEAK HYBRID COLD AIR
DAMMING REGIME/THINNING OF CLOUD COVER BY SAT AFTERNOON. AS SUCH,
TOMORROW'S MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER THAN
TODAY...ACTUALLY TOPPING OUT VERY CLOSE TO CLIMO.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 1235 PM EDT FRIDAY: WE WILL CONTINUE TO WARM UP THROUGH THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH DEEP LAYERED RIDGING LINGERING ATOP
THE SE CONUS. THE ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SUPPRESSED, AS
PIEDMONT TEMPERATURES WARM TO NEAR 80 IN SPOTS. TO START OFF THE
WORK WEEK, WITH ONLY SUBTLE CHANGES EXPECTED IN THE MEAN RIDGE
POSITIONING, IT LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER QUIET WX DAY ON MONDAY.
COINCIDENT WITH THE WARMING FLOW AROUND BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE MAX
TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE AROUND 5 DEG F ABOVE SUNDAY'S READINGS.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 100 PM EDT FRIDAY: SOUTHERN PLAINS ENERGY SUPPORTING A WEAKLY
FORCED COOL FRONT WILL EJECT TOWARD THE CWFA ON TUESDAY. FORECAST
MODEL BLENDS AND ENSEMBLES MAINTAIN A DECENT RESPONSE AS THIS
FEATURE SHEARS ACROSS THE REGION, LIKELY BEING ABLE TO AID IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
MOUNTAINS, WITH INCREASINGLY MORE LIMITED DEEP CONVECTIVE CVRG BY
THE TIME FORCING MAKES IT TO THE PIEDMONT.
THE PATTERN KEEPS A PROGRESSIVE LOOK FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AND
THE MOST NOTABLE FEATURE IS THE LLVL RIDGE OF VERY WARM AIR WITH
DOES NOT GET DISPLACED, SO WE EXPECT LOWER ELEVATION DAILY MAXIMUMS
TO REACH WELL INTO THE 80S THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY. IN THE WAKE OF
TUESDAY'S WEAK S/WV PASSAGE, THERE MAY BE A THUNDERSTORM CHANCE
MINIMA ON WEDNESDAY BUT RISING BACK TO MORE SOLID CHANCES BY THE END
OF THE PERIOD AS BROAD FRONTAL ZONE NEARS.
AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: VFR HAS DEVELOPED FOR MOST OF THE AREA. MVFR
TO IFR CONTINUES OVER THE MOUNTAINS BUT NOT CURRENTLY AT KAVL. FOR
NOW, IT LOOKS LIKE ALL SITES WILL BE VFR OVERNIGHT, EXCEPT FOR KAVL
WHERE IFR CIGS AND MVFR VSBY LIKELY WITH POSSIBLY LOWER CONDITIONS.
CAN'T RULE OUT SOME MVFR CIGS AT THE OTHER SITES. S WIND CONTINUES
AT KAVL WITH NE FOR ALL BUT KCLT WHERE SE WIND REMAINS. CLOUDS
LINGER BUT SHOULD BE VFR SATURDAY. S TO SE WIND DEVELOPS BY
AFTERNOON WHERE IT HASN'T ALREADY.
OUTLOOK: DRYING IS EXPECTED SUNDAY/MONDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM COULD
BRING A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE AREA TUESDAY, WITH MORE
OF A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED/SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION ON WED.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...JDL
NEAR TERM...JDL/RWH
SHORT TERM...CSH
LONG TERM...CSH
AVIATION...RWH
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