647
FXUS62 KGSP 040600
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
100 AM EST WED FEB 4 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AN INCREASE IN SNOW PROBABILITIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE NC MOUNTAINS
AND NC PIEDMONT TONIGHT, BUT ACCUMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.
CONFIDENCE INCREASING ON SNOW SHOWER CHANCES ALONG THE TN BORDER
FRIDAY NIGHT. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON ANY AMOUNTS.
KEY MESSAGES
1. PERIODS OF MAINLY LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. THERE
IS A CHANCE THAT RAIN COULD MIX WITH OR CHANGE OVER TO SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT, WITH ONLY SPOTTY VERY
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED.
2. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE TN BORDER
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AFTER A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH,
WHICH COULD RESULT IN SOME TRAVEL IMPACTS FRIDAY NIGHT. VERY
GUSTY WINDS ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS THE NC MOUNTAINS. OTHERWISE,
TEMPERATURES RETURN TO SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
FINALLY CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: PERIODS OF MAINLY LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT RAIN COULD MIX WITH OR CHANGE OVER
TO SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT, WITH ONLY SPOTTY
VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED.
A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH WILL SHARPEN AND DEEPEN OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY TODAY. THIS ENERGY WILL
HELP STRENGTHEN A SFC LOW PRESSURE CENTER ALONG A SLOW-MOVING
COLD FRONT AS IT CROSSES THE FORECAST AREA. A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN
(WITH POSSIBLY SOME SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN ON THE HIGHEST PEAKS)
WILL LARGELY EXIT TO OUR EAST THIS MORNING, RESULTING IN A LULL,
BEFORE MORE RAIN DEVELOPS AS THE SFC LOW PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE
AREA AND PROVIDES LOW-LEVEL LIFT. TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
TODAY UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES, WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 40S
IN THE NW NC PIEDMONT TO MID 50S IN THE NE GA PIEDMONT.
TONIGHT, THE LOW WILL BEGIN TO DRIFT SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE MIDLANDS,
WHILE THE EASTERN EDGE OF A COOL, DRY HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
NOSE INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND PUSH A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THRU
THE AREA. THE LOW WILL ORGANIZE SUCH THAT A DEFORMATION ZONE MAY
PRODUCE SOME LIGHT PRECIP ACROSS THE NC MOUNTAINS AND NC PIEDMONT
THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. TEMPS WILL BE FALLING INTO THE 30S
AND THICKNESSES SUPPORT A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW FROM NW TO SE ACROSS
OUR NC ZONES. QPF WILL BE LIGHT, AND A DRY SLOT WILL LOWER THE
SATURATED LAYER SUCH THAT THERE IS UNCERTAINTY HOW MUCH DENDRITIC
GROWTH THERE WILL BE IN THE PRECIP SHIELD. AND TEMPS DON'T REALLY
FALL BELOW FREEZING UNTIL THE POPS TAPER OFF TO SLIGHT CHC. SO
WHILE PATCHY LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS LOOK POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE NC MOUNTAINS AND NC PIEDMONT, ACCUMS LOOK TO BE GENERALLY A
DUSTING TO A COUPLE TENTHS OF AN INCH (WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE). IF MODELS TREND TOWARD MORE OVERLAP BETWEEN MOISTURE
AND THE COLD AIR, ACCUMS MAY BE BUMPED UP AND A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED IN SPOTS. WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT ASSESS
THE LATEST GUIDANCE AND MAKE A DECISION ON THAT. EITHER WAY, LOWS
THURSDAY MORNING SHOULD BE IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S EVERYWHERE,
EXCEPT STAYING JUST ABOVE FREEZING IN THE UPPER SAVANNAH VALLEY.
KEY MESSAGE 2: SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE TN BORDER
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AFTER A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH, WHICH
COULD RESULT IN SOME TRAVEL IMPACTS FRIDAY NIGHT. VERY GUSTY WINDS
ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS THE NC MOUNTAINS. OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES
RETURN TO SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND FINALLY CLIMB
ABOVE NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A CLIPPER LOW MOVING FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY AND OFF THE COAST SATURDAY. A TRAILING
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA LATE FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE
AND NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOP PRODUCING PRECIP ACROSS MAINLY
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. THERMAL PROFILES SHOW THIS WOULD BE SNOW. THE
MODELS DIFFER ON THE QPF AND RESULTANT SNOW ACCUMS; HOWEVER, THE
POTENTIAL FOR ADVISORY LEVEL SNOW, AT LEAST ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS, HAS INCREASED. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS AS THE EVENT
APPROACHES. PRECIP TAPERS OFF QUICKLY SATURDAY MORNING. VERY GUSTY
WINDS DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT AS WELL. GUSTS COULD INCREASE INTO
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NC MOUNTAINS,
ESPECIALLY THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THIS WILL BE MONITORED AS WELL.
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST WAS KEPT DRY. TEMPS RETURN TO NEAR
NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND ABOVE NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: A BROAD AREA OF LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO
MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS OUR AREA AS WE HEAD INTO THE OVERNIGHT HRS.
THE LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND A BIT MORE OPTIMISTIC WRT
VISBY AND CIGS THRU THE MORNING, WHICH HAS BEEN REFLECTED IN THIS
SET OF TAFS. A LULL IN PRECIP IS STILL EXPECTED ACROSS OUR AREA
THIS MORNING, WITH PRECIP COVERAGE INCREASING AGAIN LATE MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY OVER OUR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES.
AT THE SAME TIME, A BACKDOOR FRONT MOVES THRU AND TOGGLES WINDS
FROM SW TO NE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. CONFIDENCE REMAINS BELOW AVER-
AGE WRT THE TIMING OF THIS WIND SHIFT AND HOW IT WILL EFFECT CIGS.
THERE COULD BE SOME IMPROVEMENT AS DRY AIR WORKS IN FROM THE NE,
BUT THIS MAY BE OFFSET BY ANY ADDITIONAL PRECIP. REGARDLESS, -RA
IS LIKELY TO LINGER OVER THE FCST AREA INTO EARLY THURSDAY.
OUTLOOK: RESTRICTIONS REMAIN POSSIBLE THRU EARLY THURSDAY WITH A
SMALL CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS MIXING IN WITH RAIN ACROSS THE NC
PIEDMONT OVERNIGHT. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. DRIER
CONDITIONS RETURN BY THURS AFTERNOON AND PERSIST THRU THE WEEKEND.
GUSTY WINDS DEVELOP FRI IN ASSOCIATION WITH A COLD FRONT AND LINGER
ACROSS THE MTNS THRU SAT, BUT WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF EAST OF THE
MTNS BY FRI EVENING.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
ARK/JPT/RWH
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