295
FXUS62 KGSP 212348
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
748 PM EDT SAT MAR 21 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MONDAY AFTERNOON SHOWER CHANCES IN THE PIEDMONT HAVE BEEN REMOVED.
KEY MESSAGES
1. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM IS POSSIBLE, POSING MAINLY
A THREAT OF LARGE HAIL.
2. NEAR RECORD WARMTH ON SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA
MONDAY AFTERNOON PERHAPS TRIGGERING A FEW SHOWERS. GUSTY WIND AND
LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES GIVE RISE TO LOW-END FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS MONDAY AFTERNOON.
3. TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO VALUES CLOSER TO THE EARLY SPRING
NORMAL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. UNSETTLED, BUT GENERALLY LOW-
IMPACT, WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM IS POSSIBLE,
POSING MAINLY A THREAT OF LARGE HAIL.
A VERY ILL-DEFINED E-W ORIENTED FRONT IS SAGGING SOUTH INTO THE AREA
AT AFD TIME, PUSHED ALONG BY A SHORTWAVE ALOFT MOVING INTO THE
SUTHERN APPALACHIANS. MOISTURE ATTENDANT WITH THE SHORTWAVE
COLLOCATED WITH A SMALL AREA OF UPPER DIVERGENCE AND A WEAK
INVERSION AT ABOUT 800MB HAS LED TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF OROGRAPHIC
CIRRUS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES RUNNING
BELOW FORECAST THROUGH THE MORNING, BUT THE CIRRUS IS BEGINNING TO
ERODE FROM THE SW AND TEMPERATURES ARE RESPONDING IN KIND. WITH
THAT, STILL EXPECTING TO SEE WELL ABOVE-NORMAL HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON,
LOWER TO MID 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE PIEDMONT, AND AS THE INVERSION
BREAKS WITH INCREASED SURFACE HEATING AND AFTERNOON MIXING, SBCAPES
AND LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL INCREASE. LIMITED SURFACE/BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO A DEEP MIXED LAYER WITH HIGH LCLS, BUT
GIVEN THE LAPSE RATES AS WELL AS THE DPVA AND LIFT FROM THE
SHORTWAVE, ISOLATED SEVERE CONVECTION IS CERTAINLY NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION. CAMS REMAIN IN GENERAL AGREEMENT FIRING CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON NEAR THE TN BORDER AND SPREADING IT SOUTHEAST, BUT THERE
ARE STILL MEMBERS THAT WANT TO INITIATE A SEPARATE AREA OF MULTICELL
CLUSTERS IN THE PIEDMONT AROUND PEAK HEATING. CONVECTION THAT
DEVELOPS WILL WORK ITS WAY SE, WITH THE SPC MARGINAL RISK OUTLINING
THIS AREA WELL. HAIL STILL LIKELY THE MAIN THREAT AS BEST DCAPE
REMAINS TO OUR SE A LITTLE DISPLACED FROM THE UPPER FORCING, BUT
GIVEN THE STEEP LAPSE RATES BOTH WIND AND HAIL THREATS ARE POSSIBLE.
KEY MESSAGE 2: NEAR RECORD WARMTH ON SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON PERHAPS TRIGGERING A FEW SHOWERS. GUSTY WIND
AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES GIVE RISE TO LOW-END FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS MONDAY AFTERNOON.
THE COMBINATION OF RISING UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS ATOP THE SE CONUS
ALONG WITH AN UPTICK IN THE LLVL WSW FLOW WILL PROMOTE FURTHER
WARMING ON SUNDAY, PERHAPS MAXIMUMS REACHING THE UPPER 80S IN PARTS
OF THE PIEDMONT.
COINCIDENT WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A MOISTURE STARVED COLD
FRONT, THERE REMAINS THE POSSIBILITY OF LATE NIGHT SHOWERS REACHING
THE TENNESSEE BORDER COUNTIES BEFORE ASHING OUT LATER MONDAY
MORNING. THE LATEST MODEL BLEND SOLUTION WITH RESPECT TO THE
REDEVELOPMENT OF ANY DEEPER CONVECTION AS THE FRONT PROGRESS INTO
THE PIEDMONT, IS NOW ADVERTISING RE-INITIATION OF SHOWERS CLOSER TO
THE COASTAL PLAIN WHERE LLVL CONVERGENCE IS SLATED TO INCREASE.
DEVELOPING GUSTY WESTERLY AND THEN NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. DOWNSLOPE AND
POST-FRONTAL DRYING WILL ALLOW MINIMUM RH VALUES TO APPROACH
CRITICAL LEVEL, GIVING RISE TO FIRE WEATHER CONCERN MONDAY
AFTERNOON. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CONDITIONS...
KEY MESSAGE 3: TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO VALUES CLOSER TO THE EARLY
SPRING NORMAL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. UNSETTLED, BUT GENERALLY LOW-
IMPACT, WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
IN THE WAKE OF MONDAY'S COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE, COOLER SFC RIDGING AND
EASTERLY FLOW LOOKS TO DEVELOP ON TUESDAY AND LINGER THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK WITHIN
DEVELOPING LLVL SOUTHERLY FLOW, WEAK BUT STEADY MOISTURE ADVECTION
IS ON TAP GIVING RISE TO SHOWER CHANCES RAMPING BACK UP, ESPECIALLY
ON FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT COINCIDENT WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT
COLD FRONT.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD, EXCEPT AROUND ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. CONFIDENCE IS
INCREASING THAT TSRA WILL NOT FORM/IMPACT KCLT, BUT WILL HOLD ON TO
A PROB30 FOR 01-03Z, AS CONVECTION CROSSES THE MOUNTAINS AND
APPROACHES KCLT. ALSO, WITH KAVL RECEIVING SOME RAINFALL AND THEN
LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT, COULD SEE SOME FOG FORM THERE, SO ADDED SOME
MVFR VSBY. SW WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVERNIGHT, THEN PICK UP AGAIN
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE. PLENTY OF MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING, SHOULD CLEAR OUT
OVERNIGHT, WITH GENERALLY CLEAR OR A FEW CU SUNDAY AFTN.
OUTLOOK: VFR THROUGH MIDWEEK. PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS WITH DIURNAL
CONVECTION POSSIBLE LATER IN THE WEEK WITH FRONTAL ZONE NEAR
THE AREA.
CLIMATE
RECORDS FOR 03-21
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 82 1948 34 1960 58 1948 14 1965
1958
KCLT 87 1935 35 1914 65 1912 18 1965
KGSP 88 1907 43 1958 60 1948 18 1965
1906 1927 1906
1921
RECORDS FOR 03-22
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 86 1907 32 1915 58 1991 15 1965
KCLT 89 1907 38 1883 64 1948 24 1965
KGSP 85 1935 42 1985 62 1948 20 1906
1914
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
ARK/CSH/TDP
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