256
FXUS62 KGSP 151819
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
219 PM EDT THU OCT 15 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NBM TRENDING SLIGHTLY COOLER FOR LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGES
1. NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE A
STRONG COLD FRONT BRINGS SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AND WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND. FROST AND FREEZE CONCERNS RETURN
SATURDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT, MAINLY IN THE NORTH CAROLINA
MOUNTAINS. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND CAN BE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.
2. THE STRONG COLD FRONT WILL ALSO BRING GUSTY WINDS AREA-WIDE
AS WELL AS NORTHWEST FLOW RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SATURDAY. DRIER CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON,
LINGERING INTO AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY
BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT BRINGS SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AND WELL
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND. FROST AND FREEZE CONCERNS
RETURN SATURDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT, MAINLY IN THE NORTH
CAROLINA MOUNTAINS. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND CAN BE EXPECTED NEXT
WEEK.
UPPER RIDGING LINGERS OVER THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH TONIGHT AS A
POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES. THIS WILL KEEP NEAR RECORD HIGHS AROUND TODAY AND WELL ABOVE
NORMAL LOWS AROUND TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH THE RIDGE GETS SHUNTED EASTWARD
AS THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE EASTERN UNITED STATES ON FRIDAY,
WELL ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS WILL RETURN FOR ONE LAST DAY AS WARM
ADVECTION DEVELOPS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. KAVL IS LEAST
LIKELY TO SEE NEAR RECORD HIGHS RETURN AGAIN ON FRIDAY BUT KGSP AND
KCLT MAY END UP NEAR (OR MAY EVEN TIE OR EXCEED) THEIR RECORD HIGHS
FOR FRIDAY.
THE UPPER TROUGH TRACKS OVER THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO LATE
SATURDAY, DRAGGING A POTENT COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND
NORTHEAST GEORGIA FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY EVENING. THIS WILL BE
THE STRONGEST AND MOST IMPRESSIVE AIRMASS CHANGE WE HAVE SEEN SO FAR
THIS FALL WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 20-25 DEGREES
COOLER COMPARED TO HIGHS ON FRIDAY. HIGHS OVER THE WEEKEND WILL END
UP AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE MAIN CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST IS THAT NBM IS TRENDING COOLER FOR LOWS EACH NIGHT STARTING
FRIDAY NIGHT. THUS, FROST AND FREEZE CONCERNS CONTINUE TO INCREASE
OVER THE WEEKEND AS CLEAR SKIES RETURN BEHIND THE FRONT AND AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES (ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS). MOST
LOCATIONS IN THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS SHOULD SEE FROST CONCERNS
RETURN ON BOTH SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH A FREEZE
LOOKING MORE LIKELY AND MORE WIDESPREAD SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW
FREEZE CONCERNS SUNDAY NIGHT LOOK TO BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. FROST AND FREEZE SHOULD NOT BE OF CONCERN FRIDAY NIGHT
WITH CLOUD COVER AND GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
FRONT (SEE KEY MESSAGE 2 FOR MORE INFORMATION).
ANOTHER UPPER RIDGE WILL ATTEMPT TO BUILD BACK OVER THE SOUTHEAST
SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY BUT MAY GET SHUNTED JUST TO THE SOUTH AND
WEST THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS AN UPPER LOW DEVELOPS OFF
THE EAST COAST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH
THE WORKWEEK, WITH ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS RETURNING BY MID-WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 2: THE STRONG COLD FRONT WILL ALSO BRING GUSTY WINDS
AREA-WIDE AS WELL AS NORTHWEST FLOW RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SATURDAY. DRIER CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON,
LINGERING INTO AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
BREEZY WSW/SW WINDS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON FRIDAY,
TURNING NW/N BEHIND THE FRONT WHILE BECOMING GUSTY FRIDAY EVENING
INTO SATURDAY. GUSTS LOOK TO PEAK OVERNIGHT FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING FOR MOST LOCATIONS BUT AREAS ALONG/NEAR THE I-77
CORRIDOR SHOULD SEE GUSTS PEAK SATURDAY FROM MID-MORNING TO EARLY
EVENING. WITH ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS LOOKING TO REMAIN MOSTLY CONFINED
TO ELEVATIONS OF 4,000+ FT, A WIND ADVISORY CONTINUES TO LOOK
UNLIKELY AS THIS TIME DUE TO THE ISOLATED NATURE OF >45 MPH GUSTS.
GUSTS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY NIGHT AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. GUSTS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED EAST OF
THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY, POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO
MONDAY. GUSTS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE MUCH
LOWER COMPARED TO FRIDAY/SATURDAY, RANGING FROM 20-25 MPH.
THE COLD FRONT WILL ALSO BRING NORTHWEST FLOW RAIN SHOWERS TO MAINLY
THE NC/TN BORDER FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY MORNING. HOWEVER,
SOME OF THE 12Z CAMS AND GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHOWERS SURVIVING EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY FRIDAY EVENING INTO EARLY SATURDAY. NBM AGREES WITH
THIS, DEPICTING CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINA PIEDMONT AND
FOOTHILLS AS WELL AS THE EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA UPSTATE. WITH COLD
AIR ADVECTION CHASING THE MOISTURE, ALL LIQUID PRECIPITATION LOOKS
MOST LIKELY, ALTHOUGH WE CANNOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT SOME BRIEF SNOW
FLURRIES ABOVE 5,000 FT.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE DEPARTING
COLD FRONT BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON, LINGERING THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE RETURN OF DRY
CONDITIONS.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: DRY AND VFR THROUGH THE 18Z TAF PERIOD
OUTSIDE OF ANOTHER ROUND OF MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG OVERNIGHT INTO
DAYBREAK FRIDAY. SINCE KAVL SAW RESTRICTIONS THIS MORNING, WENT WITH
A TEMPO FOR IFR RESTRICTIONS FROM 08Z-12Z. LOWER RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO GO MORE
PESSIMISTIC. WINDS WILL MAINLY HAVE A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT (GOING
CALM TO LIGHT AND VRB AT TIMES) ACROSS THE TERMINALS THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT BEFORE WINDS TOGGLE MORE WSW/SW AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT
CLOSER TO DAYBREAK FRIDAY. WIND SPEEDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE
THROUGHOUT FRIDAY WITH SW GUSTS DEVELOPING BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK: WINDS TURN NW/N WHILE BECOMING GUSTY BEHIND A STRONG COLD
FRONT FRIDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT, PREVENTING FOG DEVELOPMENT.
GUSTS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING IN THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY NIGHT. LOW-END GUSTS WILL
LINGER THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. THE FRONT WILL
ALSO BRING NW FLOW RAIN SHOWERS TO THE NC/TN BORDER FRIDAY AFTERNOON
INTO AT LEAST LATE SATURDAY MORNING. SOME SHOWERS MAY BREAK
CONTAINMENT OF THE MOUNTAINS BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON WHETHER
ANY OF THESE WOULD DIRECTLY IMPACT TERMINALS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS.
DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND LINGER THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS
POTENTIAL RETURNS STARTING SATURDAY NIGHT.
CLIMATE
RECORDS FOR 10-15
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 86 1897 52 2002 60 2017 27 1907
1970
1928
KCLT 88 1985 53 2009 66 1985 30 2006
KGSP 86 1985 53 2002 65 1985 31 1907
1941 1970
RECORDS FOR 10-16
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 87 1897 49 1954 63 1928 29 1939
KCLT 87 1925 58 1937 68 1947 35 1939
1925
KGSP 85 1935 53 1937 67 1925 32 1907
1911
1892
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
AR
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