309
FXUS62 KGSP 200602
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
202 AM EDT FRI MAR 20 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES HAVE INCREASED ON SATURDAY. NO OTHER
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND WARMER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ISOLATED
OR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE IN SOME OF THE AREA SATURDAY.
2. ANOMALOUSLY WARM TEMPERATURES DEVELOP THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEKEND AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE NEW WORKWEEK.
3. UNSETTLED, BUT GENERALLY LOW-IMPACT, WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH
THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: TEMPERATURES WILL TREND WARMER THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. ISOLATED OR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND NON-SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN SOME OF THE AREA SATURDAY.
ANOMALOUSLY DEEP WESTERN CONUS UPPER RIDGE WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND, THOUGH SLOWLY WEAKENING. UPPER TROUGH INITIALLY
ALIGNED WITH THE EAST COAST THIS MORNING WILL DRIFT INTO THE
ATLANTIC, WITH HEIGHTS GENTLY RISING OVER THE CWA ACCORDINGLY,
AND TEMPERATURES REMAINING ON AN UPWARD TREND. TONIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY, A SHORTWAVE DIVING PAST THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CARRY A WEAK
SFC LOW AND COLD FRONT TO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THE
SHORTWAVE WILL PHASE WITH THE COASTAL TROUGH, WITH THE COMBINATION
MOVING FURTHER AWAY FROM THE AREA AND PROMOTING MORE SUBSTANTIAL
HEIGHT RISES BY SUNDAY MORNING.
WINDS WILL REMAIN SW'LY THIS AFTERNOON WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT, WITH DEWPOINTS
REBOUNDING. HOWEVER, WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER 70S IN THE
PIEDMONT AND VALLEYS, RH STILL LOOKS TO DIP TO NEAR 30 PERCENT
IN SOME SPOTS; WINDS STILL SHOULD BE TOO LOW TO EXPECT ELEVATED
WILDFIRE DANGER. LAPSE RATES WEAK AND PROFILES TOO DRY ALOFT
FOR ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY. BREEZY CONDITIONS PERSIST TONIGHT AS
GRADIENT CONTINUES TO INCREASE, MAINTAINING ELEVATED OVERNIGHT
TEMPS. AS FLOW TURNS WESTERLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS NEAR THE FRONT,
HIGHLY ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD RESULT IN THE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING
HOURS. RIDGETOPS MAY SEE GUSTS OF 20-30 MPH. IT STILL APPEARS THE
COLD FRONT WILL STALL JUST AS IT REACHES THE CWA SATURDAY MORNING;
UPPER SUPPORT EXITS AS THE TROUGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. SOME DRYING
IS NOTED ALOFT OVER THE NORTHERN CWA FOR A TIME LATE FRI NIGHT
OR SAT MORNING. HOWEVER, ANOTHER MORE ILL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE DOES
ROUND THE RIDGE ON A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK, AND THE MAJOR MODELS
DEPICT THIS FEATURE MOVING OVER THE CWA DURING THE DAY. THE W TO
NW FLOW ABOVE THE PBL BACKS AGAIN, POTENTIALLY NEGATING THE DRYING
EFFECT OF THE STALLED/REMNANT FRONT. THIS MAKES LOW-LEVEL PROFILES
MORE SUPPORTIVE OF SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON,
PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF THE OLD BOUNDARY. HREF PROBS OF 500 J/KG OF
UNINHIBITED SBCAPE ARE GREATER THAN 50% OVER THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS
AND MOST PIEDMONT AREAS SOUTH OF I-40. THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR
IS PROBABLY THE LACK OF A GOOD TRIGGER, BUT THE AVAILABLE CAMS
DEPICT AT LEAST A COUPLE OF LOOSE CLUSTERS OF STORMS FORMING
LATE IN THE DAY, PERHAPS VIA THE SHORTWAVE. ACCORDINGLY POPS AND
THUNDER CHANCES HAVE TICKED UPWARD SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING,
MAINLY SLIGHT-CHANCE (15-25%) FOR THE PIEDMONT AND CHANCE (25-50%)
IN THE MOUNTAINS/FOOTHILLS. SHEAR IS ENOUGH TO BELIEVE THE CLUSTER
MODE BUT INSUFFICIENT TO EXPECT SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME.
KEY MESSAGE 2: ANOMALOUSLY WARM TEMPERATURES DEVELOP THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE NEW WORKWEEK.
ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY, STEADY EXPANSION OF A DEEP SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
CENTERED OVER THE CHIHUAHUAN DESERT WILL RESULT IN RISING HEIGHTS
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND INCREASING TEMPERATURES. DESPITE VERY
MINIMAL TEMPERATURE ADVECTION IN THE LOW LEVELS, THE REGION'S
CONSISTENT EXPOSURE TO A MOIST SUBTROPICAL AIR MASS COMBINED WITH
BUILDING THICKNESSES ALOFT WILL PUSH HIGHS INTO THE MID-80S ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...SOME 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
ON MONDAY AFTERNOON, A LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE AXIS WILL DIP INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY BEFORE BEING DEFLECTED TO THE EAST BY THE SOUTHERN-
CONUS RIDGE. SOME AMOUNT OF MID-LEVEL FORCING WILL NONETHELESS
SKIRT THE CAROLINAS, BUT BY THIS TIME, THE SAME MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE
RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR HEAT WAVE WILL ALSO STRONGLY CAP ANY PROSPECTIVE
CONVECTION; INDEED, WHILE SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS LOOK LIKE A
POSSIBILITY, THEIR POTENTIAL TO TAP INTO ANY DEEPER INSTABILITY
AND GENERATE EVEN GARDEN-VARIETY THUNDER LOOKS LIMITED. RATHER,
AS THE SHORTWAVE'S SURFACE REFLECTION SLIDES SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA
MONDAY AFTERNOON, MOST OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE DEPICTS SCATTERED
RIDGETOP SHOWERS (PERHAPS EVEN ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE LOW
TERRAIN) FOLLOWED BY A PUNCH OF DRY, COOLER AIR BY MONDAY NIGHT.
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, A DRY ENOUGH AIR MASS LOOKS TO SETTLE
INTO THE REGION TO PROMOTE CRITICAL RHS OVER AT LEAST PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE NEED FOR A FIRE DANGER
STATEMENT CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT BY THE TIME THE RH DROPS,
WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE ANY RED FLAG POTENTIAL.
KEY MESSAGE 3: UNSETTLED, BUT GENERALLY LOW-IMPACT, WEATHER CONTINUES
THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
FOLLOWING A BRIEF PERIOD OF QUIET CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY, ANOTHER,
MORE ROBUST Z500 TROUGH SHOULD DIVE OUT OF THE MIDWEST AND CROSS
THE CAROLINAS BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. BY THIS TIME, SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED SOMEWHERE ALONG A CORRIDOR EXTENDING
FROM COASTAL NORTH CAROLINA TO CAPE COD. DEPENDING ON THE
LOCATION OF THE HIGH, SURFACE FLOW MAY BE FAVORABLE FOR A WEAK
HYBRID COLD-AIR DAMMING EVENT AS A BRIEF BUT INTENSE PERIOD OF
LOW-LEVEL ISENTROPIC ASCENT DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE AXIS.
ENSEMBLES ARE...NOT CONSISTENT...IN THEIR HANDLING OF THE HIGH,
SO CONFIDENCE ISN'T GREAT ON WHETHER CAD WILL DEVELOP. EVEN IF IT
DOES, MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED ENOUGH THAT VERY LITTLE
QPF WOULD BE EXPECTED.
ENSEMBLES REALLY BEGIN TO DIVERGE PAST THIS POINT. SOME ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS - PRIMARILY THOSE FROM THE 00Z ENS - DEPICT A COMPACT
SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK, DRIVING ANOTHER COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD. THE BULK OF GEFS AND GEPS MEMBERSHIP, COMPARATIVELY,
FEATURE A MORE A ZONAL UPPER PATTERN AND ALLOWING TEMPERATURES
TO REBOUND INTO THE 70S WITHIN A WARMER AIR MASS BY THE END OF
THE WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: VFR THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING AT ALL TAF
TERMINALS. LARGELY CALM WINDS AND SKC THIS MORNING; WINDS SHOULD
PICK UP FROM THE SW BY NOON, BECOMING BREEZY DURING THE AFTERNOON
WITH A FEW GUSTS DEVELOPING AT AROUND 15 KT, WHILE A FEW CLOUDS
ABOVE FL180 DRIFT IN. LIGHT SW WINDS CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH CLOUD
COVER INCREASING AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. LOWER VFR TO
MVFR CLOUDS LIKELY BY DAYBREAK SAT OVER THE WESTERN SLOPES OF
THE APPALACHIANS, BUT NOT AFFECTING THE TAF SITES. LIGHT SW TO
WSW WINDS CONTINUE SATURDAY WITH ISOLATED SHRA OR TSRA POSSIBLE
AFTER 18Z SAT AT ALL SITES.
OUTLOOK: VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND ASIDE FROM THE POSSIBILITY
OF A TS HIT AND BRIEF MVFR TO IFR VSBY. A LARGELY DRY COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY, WHICH MAY BRING BRIEF RESTRICTIONS
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS.
CLIMATE
RECORDS FOR 03-21
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 82 1948 34 1960 58 1948 14 1965
1958
KCLT 87 1935 35 1914 65 1912 18 1965
KGSP 88 1907 43 1958 60 1948 18 1965
1906 1927 1906
1921
RECORDS FOR 03-22
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 86 1907 32 1915 58 1991 15 1965
KCLT 89 1907 38 1883 64 1948 24 1965
KGSP 85 1935 42 1985 62 1948 20 1906
1914
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
JCW/MPR
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