387
FXUS62 KGSP 072326
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
726 PM EDT TUE JUL 7 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED THE AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 18Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
1. SCATTERED DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY,
PRIMARILY ACROSS WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE INCREASES SATURDAY ACROSS THE WHOLE FORECAST AREA AND
REMAINS ELEVATED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS
MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN THURSDAY.
2. GENERALLY HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE
COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS RETURN SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THOSE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS SHOULD STAY HYDRATED AND TAKE
FREQUENT BREAKS IN AIR- CONDITIONED OR SHADED AREAS. NEVER LEAVE
CHILDREN OR PETS IN UNATTENDED VEHICLES.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: SCATTERED DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY, PRIMARILY ACROSS WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE INCREASES SATURDAY ACROSS THE WHOLE FORECAST
AREA AND REMAINS ELEVATED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ISOLATED SEVERE
STORMS MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN THURSDAY.
WHILE A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME BERMUDA HIGH PATTERN CONTINUES OVER
THE SOUTHEAST AT LARGE, A WEAK, ALMOST STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE IS
SEEN NORTH OF THE UPPER RIDGE NEAR THE NC/VA BORDER. THIS FRONT
EXTENDS BETWEEN AN UPPER LOW IN THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE JERSEY SHORE. MOISTURE POOLING IN PROXIMITY
TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD MAINTAIN ELEVATED DEWPOINTS THIS
AFTERNOON AND MARGINALLY HIGHER CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL PARTICULARLY
IN OUR NC ZONES. THE MS VALLEY LOW WILL DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, BEGINNING TO OPEN INTO A MORE PROGRESSIVE
SHORTWAVE, WHILE THE EAST COAST LOW MOVES FARTHER OUT INTO
THE ATLANTIC. THE FRONTAL ZONE SHIFTS SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH IN
RESPONSE. DEWPOINTS LOOK TO MIX OUT SLIGHTLY LOWER WED AFTERNOON,
AND COVERAGE IS FORECAST TO BE SLIGHTLY LESSER AS WELL. COVERAGE
MAY HOWEVER TICK BACK UPWARD OVER THE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AS THE WEAKENING SHORTWAVE DRIFTS OVERHEAD. STEERING FLOW THROUGH
THURSDAY IS WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY; RIDGETOP CONVERGENCE AS USUAL WILL
BE A DRIVER FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION WITH PROPAGATION MAINLY
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AS A RESULT. HENCE, THROUGH THURSDAY,
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE LOOKS TO REMAIN VERY SPARSE OVER THE LOWER
PIEDMONT--WITH POPS GENERALLY BELOW 15 PERCENT--ESPECIALLY OVER THE
MORE SOUTHERN GA/SC ZONES. WEAK SHEAR SUGGESTS MAINLY PULSE-STORM
THREATS TODAY AND WEDNESDAY, AND THUS THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED
DAMAGING MICROBURSTS. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR INCREASES WITH THE ARRIVAL
OF THE SHORTWAVE THURSDAY, SO STORMS THAT DAY MAY HAVE SLIGHTLY
MORE POTENTIAL TO ORGANIZE ALONG COLD POOLS THOUGH NOT NECESSARILY
RESULTING IN HIGHER SEVERE RISK.
A SHORTWAVE IS SHOWN TO PASS NORTH OF THE CWA FRIDAY, POSSIBLY
WITH A WEAK TRAILING CONVERGENCE ZONE WHICH COULD MAINTAIN
SOME NONDIURNAL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY NEAR THE TN BORDER FRIDAY
NIGHT. HEIGHTS CONCURRENTLY RISE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS, WITH A
SUBSEQUENT SHORTWAVE MOVING PAST THE DEVELOPING RIDGE AND BRINGING
A BETTER DEFINED COLD FRONT SOUTH THROUGH THE CWA, SUCH THAT A
MORE ACTIVE NORTHWEST-FLOW REGIME SETS UP SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
THE INGREDIENTS DON'T QUITE COME TOGETHER TO NECESSARILY PUT US IN
AN MCS TRACK, BUT WE MAY AT LEAST HAVE THE EXPOSURE TO DISTURBANCES
ORIGINATING UPSTREAM WHICH COULD PROMOTE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
LOCALLY. AS OF NOW THE MOST ACTIVE DAY APPEARS TO BE SUNDAY WHEN
MOST LOCATIONS IN THE CWA RECEIVE A 60-70% POP.
KEY MESSAGE 2: GENERALLY HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY
BEFORE COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS RETURN SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THOSE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS SHOULD STAY HYDRATED AND TAKE
FREQUENT BREAKS IN AIR- CONDITIONED OR SHADED AREAS. NEVER LEAVE
CHILDREN OR PETS IN UNATTENDED VEHICLES.
SEASONABLY HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE HOVERING A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL TODAY,
WITH DEWPOINTS REMAINING ELEVATED IN THE VICINITY OF A STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST NORTH OF THE AREA. AS THAT BOUNDARY SHIFTS
NORTHWARD FOR THURSDAY, DEWPOINTS POTENTIALLY WILL TREND A LITTLE
LOWER, THOUGH TEMPERATURES TREND A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER; THESE
OFFSET SUCH THAT HEAT INDEX TOPS OUT AT SIMILAR LEVELS, GENERALLY
IN THE UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S, THUS A TAD BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.
TEMPERATURES TREND COOLER BY SUNDAY AS HEIGHTS FALL OVER THE
EASTERN SEABOARD IN THE WAKE OF WEAK SHORTWAVES, BRINGING A
WEAK COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA. THE COOLER AIRMASS,
COMBINED WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER NEAR THE FRONT, ACTUALLY BRING
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL MONDAY.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THIS EVENING, MAINLY ALONG THE I-85 CORRIDOR
AND ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS NEAR THE TENNESSEE BORDER. ONGOING TSRA AT
KGSP WILL CONTINUE PUSHING EAST AND WILL CLEAR THE AIRFIELD SHORTLY
WHILE ADDITIONAL TSRA MOVES INTO THE CLT AREA. TEMPORARY
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY WITH ANY CONVECTION. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
DISSIPATE THROUGH THE EVENING WITH AN OVERALL QUIET NIGHT EXPECTED.
MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG WILL ONCE AGAIN BE LIKELY WITH POTENTIAL IMPACTS
AT KAVL ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG AT KHKY.
ANY FOG WILL QUICKLY MIX OUT AFTER SUNRISE WITH A RETURN TO VFR
THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING. ANOTHER BATCH OF ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED AFTERNOON STORMS IS POSSIBLE, MAINLY ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT WITH
SOUTHWEST WINDS DURING THE DAY TOMORROW. A FEW LOW-END GUSTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE UPSTATE.
OUTLOOK: THE NORTH CAROLINA TERMINALS WILL HAVE THE BEST POTENTIAL
TO SEE TSRA CHANCES RETURN EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. MORE WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED ACROSS ALL
TERMINALS SATURDAY TO MONDAY. LOW STRATUS AND/OR FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE EACH MORNING IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AND IN LOCATIONS
THAT SEE APPRECIABLE RAINFALL THE PREVIOUS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
JCW/TW
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page