775
FXUS62 KGSP 061811
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
211 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
HIGH TEMPERATURES HAVE COOLED BY UP TO 2 DEGREES FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.
UPDATED THE AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 18Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
1. HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE FOR MOST OF THE
WEEK, MAINLY EAST OF THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS. THOSE WITH
OUTDOOR PLANS SHOULD STAY HYDRATED AND TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS IN
AIR-CONDITIONED OR SHADED AREAS. NEVER LEAVE CHILDREN OR PETS IN
UNATTENDED VEHICLES.
2. DAILY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS FOR THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE, WITH THE BEST COVERAGE EXPECTED IN THE NC
MOUNTAINS EACH AFTERNOON THIS WEEK. A COUPLE OF STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON, WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE
PRIMARY HAZARD.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE FOR MOST OF
THE WEEK, MAINLY EAST OF THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS. THOSE WITH
OUTDOOR PLANS SHOULD STAY HYDRATED AND TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS IN
AIR-CONDITIONED OR SHADED AREAS. NEVER LEAVE CHILDREN OR PETS IN
UNATTENDED VEHICLES.
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP WILL REMAIN LARGELY UNCHANGED THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS, WITH A STALLED COLD FRONT WELL TO OUR NORTH OVER THE
MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY, AND A WARM, MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST. SUBTROPICAL RIDGING ALOFT WILL ACT AS A WEAK BLOCK
PREVENTING ANY WELL-DEFINED UPPER-LEVEL FEATURES FROM REACHING US.
SO, THE NAME OF THE GAME WILL BE HEAT AND HUMIDITY, AS A STEADY
INFLUX OF GULF MOISTURE PUSHES INTO THE CAROLINAS.
THE TEMPERATURE TREND NONETHELESS LOOKS TO PROVIDE A BIT OF RELIEF
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK, WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOW-
TO MID-90S THROUGH MID WEEK, AND HEAT INDEX VALUES ONLY IN THE
LOW TRIPLE DIGITS ALONG I-77 AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN UPSTATE,
AND EVEN LOWER ELSEWHERE. IN PARTICULAR, WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
WOULD LOOK TO BE MORE TOLERABLE IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK, ILL-DEFINED
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THAT SHOULD AT LEAST BRIEFLY REDUCE BOTH
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS. DO NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATE NEEDING
ANY HEAT ADVISORIES THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK, AS THE BERMUDA HIGH BEGINS TO BUILD
STRENGTH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AGAIN, HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL
AGAIN INCREASE. WE'LL LIKELY BE LOOKING AT MID-90S AND WIDESPREAD
TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT INDEX VALUES AGAIN GOING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
KEY MESSAGE 2: DAILY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE, WITH THE BEST COVERAGE EXPECTED IN
THE NC MOUNTAINS EACH AFTERNOON THIS WEEK. A COUPLE OF STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON, WITH DAMAGING WINDS
THE PRIMARY HAZARD.
ANOTHER ROUND OF DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO INITIATE
OVER THE NC MOUNTAINS, WITH INCREASING COVERAGE EXPECTED OVER
THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. 12Z HI-RES GUIDANCE AND RECENT HRRR/RRFS
RUNS ALL KEEP THE MAJORITY OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY CONFINED TO
THE MOUNTAINS TODAY, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A ROUND OF POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG AND EAST OF I-77 THIS EVENING.
STORMS SHOULD ENCOUNTER A CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY'S, FEATURING SOME 2000-3000 J/KG SBCAPE, PALTRY SHEAR,
AND MARGINAL DCAPE AT BEST. CAN'T RULE OUT A COUPLE OF STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS, BUT IT LOOKS LIKE A ROUTINE SUMMER AFTERNOON OVERALL.
AGREE WITH SPC'S MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER OVER THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
DEEP SHEAR MAY INCREASE MODESTLY ON TUESDAY AS A DECAYING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SAGS INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND APPROACHES THE AREA
FROM THE NORTHWEST, BUT IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY STRONG FORCING
MECHANISM, COVERAGE WILL BE IN QUESTION. RECENT CAM CYCLES
STRUGGLE TO EEK OUT SOME CONVECTION ALONG I-40 TUESDAY AFTERNOON,
AND AGAIN A COUPLE OF STRONG TO SEVERE CELLS CAN'T BE RULED OUT.
BUT CONFIDENCE IS LIMITED. SPC'S MARGINAL FOR THE I-40 CORRIDOR
TOMORROW LOOKS REASONABLE, AT LEAST FOR NOW.
THE PATTERN LOOKS TO BECOME A TAD BIT MORE DYNAMIC THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK, WITH A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES PASSING NEAR OR OVER
THE FORECAST AREA AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE RETREATS EASTWARD.
THIS OPENS THE DOOR FOR A MORE STRONGLY-FORCED CONVECTIVE EVENT,
THOUGH DETAILS ARE UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME. THINGS SHOULD CULMINATE
WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY NIGHT, WHEN LONG-RANGE
ENSEMBLES AGREE WE'LL GET A REAL AIR MASS CHANGE. BEHIND THE FRONT,
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL AND DEWPOINTS WILL DROP, BUT DIURNAL SHOWERS
AND STORMS STILL LOOK LIKE THEY'LL CONTINUE.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. IT'S SETTING UP TO BE ANOTHER TYPICAL
SUMMER AFTERNOON OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, WITH THE
BETTER COVERAGE REMAINING CONFINED TO THE NC MOUNTAINS, AND MORE
WIDELY SCATTERED/ISOLATED COVERAGE OVER THE PIEDMONT OUT TO I-77.
CAN'T JUSTIFY MORE THAN A PROB30 FOR TSRA AT MOST SITES, WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF KAVL WHERE BETTER COVERAGE IS EXPECTED AND PROB30 WAS
UPGRADED TO A TEMPO. GUIDANCE DEPICTS ANOTHER ROUND OF MOUNTAIN
VALLEY FOG/STRATUS TONIGHT AT KAVL AND OTHER MOUNTAIN TERMINALS.
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN OUT OF THE SW THROUGH THE PERIOD, THOUGH THEY
SHOULD BE VERY, VERY LIGHT OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON
CONVECTION LOOKS LIKELY TOMORROW, THOUGH COVERAGE WILL ONCE AGAIN
BE QUESTIONABLE.
OUTLOOK: THE PATTERN REMAINS UNSETTLED THE REST OF THE WEEK, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON HOW EXACTLY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
UNFOLD. LOW STRATUS AND/OR FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH MORNING IN
THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AND IN LOCATIONS THAT SEE APPRECIABLE RAINFALL
THE PREVIOUS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MPR
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