912
FXUS62 KGSP 250642
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
142 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
QPF HAS BEEN DECREASED SLIGHTLY THROUGH TODAY, MAINLY DUE TO THE
SLOW START TO THE PRECIP EVENT/DIFFICULTY IN OVERCOMING DRY AIR NEAR
THE SURFACE. HOWEVER, DAYTIME WARMING/TRANSITION TO RAIN HAS ALSO
BEEN DELAYED ACROSS NORTHEAST GA AND THE UPSTATE, DUE TO THE AIR
MASS BEING QUITE A BIT COLDER THAN INITIALLY EXPECTED. OVERALL, ONLY
MINOR (MOSTLY DOWNWARD) ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN MADE TO STORM TOTAL
ICE.
A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR TONIGHT FOR THE NORTH
CAROLINA MOUNTAINS AND RABUN COUNTY IN GEORGIA.
TEMPS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY WARMER MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT, BUT
STILL EXPECT DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS ACROSS THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF
TODAY'S ICE STORM.
KEY MESSAGES
1. A MAJOR ICE STORM IS UNFOLDING, WITH AN ICE STORM WARNING
REMAINING IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE CWA. IMPACTS WILL BE CRIPPLING
ACROSS AT LEAST A PART OF THE FORECAST AREA, ESPECIALLY WHERE ICE
ACCRETION APPROACHES OR EXCEEDS 0.75". WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES AND
EXTREMELY DIFFICULT TO IMPOSSIBLE TRAVEL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO LINGER THROUGH AT LEAST THE EARLY PART OF THE WORK WEEK.
2. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES TO
PRODUCE DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS
AND PORTIONS OF GEORGIA MOUNTAINS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED.
3. GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL PRODUCE DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND
CHILLS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING, WHICH COULD RESULT IN
HYPOTHERMIA OR FROSTBITE IF PRECAUTIONS ARE NOT TAKEN.
4. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED LATER IN THE WEEK WITH
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT, WHICH COULD RESULT IN HYPOTHERMIA OR
FROSTBITE IF PRECAUTIONS ARE NOT TAKEN.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: A MAJOR ICE STORM IS UNFOLDING, WITH AN ICE STORM
WARNING REMAINING IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE CWA. IMPACTS WILL BE
CRIPPLING ACROSS AT LEAST A PART OF THE FORECAST AREA, ESPECIALLY
WHERE ICE ACCRETION APPROACHES OR EXCEEDS 0.75". WIDESPREAD POWER
OUTAGES AND EXTREMELY DIFFICULT TO IMPOSSIBLE TRAVEL CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH AT LEAST THE EARLY PART OF THE WORK WEEK.
A VERY COLD AIR MASS ASSOCIATED WITH CLASSICAL COLD AIR DAMMING HAS
OVERSPREAD THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING, WITH SURFACE TEMPS RANGING
FROM THE TEENS ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA (EXCLUDING THE
VALLEYS WEST OF THE BALSAMS). THIS AIR MASS IS SUPPORTED BY 1040+ MB
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY SETTLING OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
MEANWHILE, MOISTURE AND INSENTROPIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH ACTIVATION
OF THE BROAD BAROCLINIC ZONE COVERING MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OF THE CONUS IS RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD LIGHT PRECIP ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. SUPPLEMENTAL SOUNDINGS PROVIDED BY
THE UNCA ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES DEPT AS WELL AS ACARS SOUNDINGS FROM
THE CHARLOTTE AREA REVEAL A STRONG WARM NOSE DEVELOPING AS A
CONSEQUENCE OF INTENSE WARM ADVECTION ABOVE THE MATURING COLD POOL.
AS SUCH, THE BULK OF PRECIP IS FALLING AS FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING
DRIZZLE. ALTHOUGH SOME SLEET MAY MIX IN AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
FAR NORTHERN AREAS, FREEZING RAIN WILL REMAIN THE PREDOMINANT...AND
EVENTUALLY THE ONLY P-TYPE AS THE WARM NOSE IS ONLY FORECAST TO
STRENGTHEN WHILE THE COLD LAYER AT THE SURFACE WILL GRADUALLY BECOME
MORE SHALLOW. PRECIP RATES WILL ALSO INCREASE TOWARD DAYBREAK, AS
ISENTROPIC LIFT INTENSIFIES ATOP THE DAMMING REGION. WE MAY BE
SEEING THE BEGINNINGS OF THIS WITH A NORTHEAST-MOVING PRECIP SHIELD
THAT IS BLOSSOMING OVER EASTERN AL/WEST CENTRAL GA.
HAVING SAID THAT, THERE MAY BE SOMEWHAT OF A LULL LATER THIS
MORNING...OR AT LEAST A TRANSITION TO MORE OF A -FZDZ SCENARIO...ESP
OVER EASTERN AREAS, AS CYCLOGENESIS JUST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST
DISRUPTS THE WIND AND THERMAL ADVECTION FIELDS. OVERALL, IN LIGHT OF
THE SLOW START TO THE PRECIP EVENT/INITIAL DIFFICULTY WITH
OVERCOMING THE VERY DRY AIR NEAR THE SURFACE, QPF HAS TRENDED DOWN A
BIT WITH THE LATEST FORECAST CYCLE...WITH TOTAL LIQ EQUIV FORECAST
AMOUNTS MOSTLY IN THE 0.25-0.5" RANGE NOW EXPECTED THROUGH 18Z.
NEVERTHELESS, THE VERY COLD AIR MASS AND RELATIVELY MODEST PRECIP
RATES SHOULD MAKE FOR VERY EFFICIENT ICE ACCRETION...AND MOST AREAS
WITHIN THE ICE STORM WARNING ARE LIKELY TO BE IN THE BALLPARK OF
0.25" OF ICE BY 18Z.
THE STRONG ELEVATED WARM ADVECTION IS STILL EXPECTED TO ALLOW MOST
OF THE VALLEYS WEST OF THE BALSAMS TO WARM ABOVE FREEZING BY LATE
MORNING, WITH ICE ACCUMS GENERALLY IN THE 0.1-0.33" RANGE EXPECTED
THERE. MEANWHILE, THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN SUPPORTING COLD AIR DAMMING
IS FORECAST TO ESSENTIALLY FALL APART RATHER QUICKLY LATER TODAY, AS
THE PARENT HIGH SHIFTS INTO QUEBEC/BECOMES DETACHED FROM THE DAMMING
RIDGE, STRONG WIND SHEAR DEVELOPS NEAR THE TOP OF THE COLD POOL EAST
OF DEVELOPING MESO-LOW OVER THE TN VALLEY, AND THE CYCLONE DEEPENS
OFF THE COAST. THUS, THE CAD WILL CERTAINLY BEGIN TO ERODE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST BY AFTERNOON. HAVING SAID THAT...THE AIR MASS WILL
INITIALLY BE SO COLD THAT IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR EVEN THE UPPER
SAVANNAH VALLEY/SC LAKELAND TO WARM ABOVE FREEZING, AND THIS MAY NOT
EVEN OCCUR UNTIL THE COLD FRONT/FRONTAL BAND SWEEPS THROUGH DURING
THE AFTERNOON. THE RELATIVELY HIGH PRECIP RATES WITHIN THE BAND ARE
THEREFORE EXPECTED TO FALL MOSTLY AS FZRA WITHING THE CAD REGION,
AND WHILE SOME OF THIS WILL BE CONVERTED TO RUNOFF AS OPPOSED TO
PURE ICE ACCRETION, MUCH OF THE AREA WILL LIKELY A QUICK ADDITIONAL
0.15-0.3 INCH OF ICE, WITH STORM TOTALS OF A SOLID HALF INCH OF ICE
STILL LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE UPSLOPE REGION OF THE SOUTHERN ESCARPMENT, WHERE
AROUND AN INCH IS POSSIBLE. WHILE CONVECTION WITHIN THE FRONTAL BAND
WILL BE ELEVATED, THERE COULD STILL BE SOME GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30 KTS
IMPINGING UPON THE INCREASINGLY SHALLOW COLD POOL, WHICH COULD
EXACERBATE THE PROBLEM OF FALLING TREES AND LIMBS. IN OTHER WORDS,
DAMAGE, POWER OUTAGES, AND ROAD CONDITIONS COULD DETERIORATE RATHER
RAPIDLY THIS AFTERNOON.
PRECIP WILL END ABRUPTLY BY EARLY EVENING. ANY WARMING ABOVE
FREEZING WILL BE BRIEF, AS STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL OVERSPREAD THE
AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL BAND. WINDS WILL BECOME VERY GUSTY
FROM THE NW ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT, WITH SOME SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED AND MINOR ACCUMS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NC
COUNTIES BORDERING TN.
KEY MESSAGE 2: GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH FALLING
TEMPERATURES TO PRODUCE DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS ACROSS THE NORTH
CAROLINA MOUNTAINS AND PORTIONS OF GEORGIA MOUNTAINS LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PICK UP EARLY MONDAY MORNING, WITH GUSTS OF 40-
60 MPH IN THE HIGH TERRAIN, AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE, AS THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEEPENS OFF THE EAST COAST. WIND GUSTS WILL
GENERALLY NOT QUITE REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA, BUT WITH ICE-DAMAGED
TREES AND POWER LINES, AN IMPACT-BASED ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR AT
LEAST PORTIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY. HIGH ELEVATIONS WILL SEE
TEMPS COOL LATE TONIGHT THRU LATE MONDAY MORNING, AND COMBINED WITH
THE WIND, WIND CHILLS DIP BELOW -5 F IN SOME SPOTS. BASED ON
EXPECTED ONGOING IMPACTS FROM TODAY'S ICE STORM, A COLD WEATHER
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS AND RABUN
COUNTY IN NORTHEAST GA FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM MONDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE, LITTLE CHANGE IN THE TEMPERATURES WITH LATEST FORECAST,
WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE TEENS TO UPPER 20S IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S IN THE PIEDMONT.
KEY MESSAGE 3: GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL PRODUCE DANGEROUSLY
COLD WIND CHILLS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING, WHICH COULD
RESULT IN HYPOTHERMIA OR FROSTBITE IF PRECAUTIONS ARE NOT TAKEN.
TEMPS WILL BE MUCH COLDER MONDAY NIGHT AS CONTINENTAL HIGH CENTERS
JUST WEST OF THE REGION. TEMPS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY WARMER THEN
PREVIOUS FORECAST, BUT STILL IN THE SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE MOUNTAINS
AND PART OF THE NC PIEDMONT, AND LOWER TEENS ALONG/SOUTH OF I-85.
WITH SOME WIND CONTINUING OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND RESULTANT WIND
CHILL, STILL LOOKS LIKE HIGHER ELEVATIONS COULD REACH EXTREME COLD
WARNING CRITERIA, WITH MOST OTHER MOUNTAIN AREAS IN COLD WEATHER
ADVISORY RANGE. WITH WIND CHILL FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS OVER
MOST NON-MOUNTAIN AREAS, WHETHER WE OBJECTIVELY MEET CRITERIA WILL
DEPEND ON THE CLIMATOLOGY-BASED THRESHOLDS, BUT CAN'T RULE OUT
IMPACT-BASED ADJUSTMENTS TO CRITERIA GIVEN THAT A VERY LARGE
PROPORTION OF THE AREA COULD BE WITHOUT POWER. AN EXTREME COLD WATCH
MAY BE ISSUED IF CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH FOR THE HIGH ELEVATIONS
OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN TEMPERATURE TRENDS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
STILL EXPECTING TEMPS TO PLUMMET WELL BELOW FREEZING BOTH NIGHTS,
AND ONLY GET INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S IN THE AFTN ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT AND LOWER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. THESE COLD TEMPS WILL
EXACERBATE THREATS OF HYPOTHERMIA FOR ANYONE TRAVELING OR STILL
WITHOUT POWER. MAKE SURE TO CHECK UP ON VULNERABLE LOVED ONES AND
NEIGHBORS, PETS, AND HAVE PLENTY OF BLANKETS AND WARM CLOTHING.
REMEMBER TO AVOID BURNING FUELS LIKE PROPANE OR KEROSENE INDOORS AS
THIS INCREASES FIRE RISK AND CARBON MONOXIDE POISONING.
KEY MESSAGE 4: A REINFORCING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED LATER IN THE
WEEK WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT, WHICH COULD RESULT IN HYPOTHERMIA
OR FROSTBITE IF PRECAUTIONS ARE NOT TAKEN.
STILL EXPECTING ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TO ROUND AN UPPER LOW NORTH OF
THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY AND SWING THRU THE APPALACHIANS EARLY
THURSDAY, BRINGING ANOTHER COLD FRONT. MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONT IS
MINIMAL, BUT A BRIEF ROUND OF LIGHT NW FLOW SNOW SHOWERS APPEARS
POSSIBLE AND IS REFLECTED IN SMALL POPS ALONG THE TN BORDER WED
NIGHT. WHILE TEMPS MAY REMAIN A BIT ABOVE FREEZING IN MOST AREAS
WEDNESDAY, THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WILL BRING MIN TEMPS BACK INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS THU MORNING NEAR THE TN BORDER ALONG WITH SUBZERO
WIND CHILLS WHICH COULD PROMPT ANOTHER COLD WX ADVISORY OR EVEN
HIGH ELEVATION EXTREME COLD WARNING. MAINLY TEENS ELSEWHERE
WITH WIND CHILL ABOVE CRITERIA UNLESS AN EXCEPTION IS MADE FOR
POWER OUTAGES AS NOTED PREVIOUSLY. THURSDAY NIGHT LOOKS LIKELY
TO TREND A FEW DEGREES COLDER YET AGAIN, WITH WIND CHILLS
FALLING INTO THE SAME CATEGORIES. HIGH TEMP FRIDAY COULD BE
BELOW FREEZING IN MUCH OF THE AREA.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: ***AMD NOT SKED WILL BE CARRIED AT KHKY UNTIL
THE FURTHER NOTICE DUE TO ASOS OUTAGE.*** LIGHT PRECIP...MOSTLY IN
THE FORM OF -FZRA HAS BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE TERMINAL FORECAST
AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. PREDOMINANT FLIGHT CATEGORY AT THIS TIME
IS MVFR, BUT SOME IFR IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN AREAS,
PARTICULARLY KGSP/KAVL/KGMU. IFR WILL EVENTUALLY SETTLE IN AT ALL
TERMINALS...PROBABLY NO LATER THAN 09Z OR SO. CAN'T RULE OUT SOME
LIFR CIGS DEVELOPING TOWARDS SUNRISE, BUT THIS IS UNCERTAIN, AND
THE POTENTIAL WILL BE HANDLED WITH A SCT004. FZRA AND IFR/EVENTUAL
LIFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS,
ALTHOUGH A BIT OF A LULL...OR POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OF -FZDZ IS
POSSIBLE AFTER SUNRISE. THE LULL WILL BE DISRUPTED BY A PRECIP
BAND...POSSIBLY CONTAINING BRIEF +FZRA THAT WILL SWEEP QUICKLY
ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON, WITH PRECIP ENDING IN
MOST AREAS BY EARLY EVENING. HOWEVER, IFR/LIFR RESTRICTIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE EVENING. NE WINDS OF
AROUND 10 KTS WILL OTHERWISE CONTINUE BEFORE WEAKENING LATER THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. HOWEVER, BRIEF GUSTS OF 20-30 KTS WITH SOME
WESTERLY COMPONENT COULD OCCUR IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE FRONTAL
BAND THIS AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK: GUSTY WINDS WILL DEVELOP EARLY MONDAY, ESPECIALLY OVER
THE MOUNTAINS AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH
OF THE WEEK UNDER A COLD AND DRY AIR MASS.
CLIMATE
RECORDS FOR 01-27
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 80 1999 17 1940 54 1916 2 1986
KCLT 75 1890 24 1940 58 1890 6 1940
KGSP 73 1954 29 1940 57 1949 8 1940
RECORDS FOR 01-28
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 75 1914 7 1897 52 1916 -2 1986
1897
KCLT 79 1944 20 1897 59 1916 5 1986
KGSP 77 1944 29 1986 55 1957 5 1986
RECORDS FOR 01-29
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 76 2002 25 1977 52 1917 -1 1897
1897
KCLT 79 2002 29 2014 59 1957 8 1897
KGSP 78 2002 27 1897 57 1957 6 1897
1916
RECORDS FOR 01-30
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 76 2002 11 1966 55 1950 -7 1966
1914
KCLT 78 2002 19 1966 59 1914 4 1966
KGSP 76 1975 20 1966 53 2002 -6 1966
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...ICE STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR GAZ010-017-018-026-
028-029.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR GAZ010.
NC...ICE STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR NCZ033-035>037-
048>053-056>059-062>065-068>072-082-501>510.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR NCZ033-
048>053-058-059-062>065.
SC...ICE STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR SCZ008>014-019-
101>109.
ARK/JDL
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