294
FXUS62 KGSP 271047
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
647 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NC FOOTHILLS
AND NW PIEDMONT UNTIL 9 AM EDT.
THE AVIATION DISCUSSION WAS UPDATED FOR THE UPCOMING 12Z TAF
ISSUANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
1. DAILY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY.
2. A DRYING AND WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH
HOT TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED HUMIDITY BY MIDWEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: DAILY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY.
ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR MOST OF THE NC FOOTHILLS AND
WESTERN NW PIEDMONT UNTIL 13Z. FOG IS ALREADY STARTING TO IMPROVE
IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE ADVISORY, SO IT MAY BE CANCELED EARLY,
IF THE REST OF THE FOG STARTS LIFTING AS WELL. THE DENSEST PART
SEEMS TO BE IN THE HICKORY AREA.
OTHERWISE...A SERIES OF UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVES WILL DIVE THRU A
LONG WAVE TROUGH AXIS AND ACROSS THE CWFA TODAY THRU FRIDAY. THESE
WILL WORK TO DEEPEN THE TROUGH AND START TO SWING THE AXIS ACROSS
THE AREA ON FRIDAY. AN AXIS OF DEEP MOISTURE HAS SET UP ALONG
AND EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS, WHICH WILL SUPPORT ELEVATED PRECIP
CHANCES. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTN, THEN COVERAGE
SHIFTS EAST TO THE PIEDMONT MAINLY DURING THE EVENING HOURS. DESPITE
STARTING OUT WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER, ENOUGH BREAKING UP OF
THE CLOUDS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A WARM, MUGGY DAY. GIVEN THE
EXPECTED HIGHER COVERAGE OF ACTIVITY, AND PWATS IN THE 1.5-2.0"
RANGE, ISOLATED, LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN AND NUISANCE FLOODING CANNOT
BE RULED OUT. AS FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL, SOLID 1000-2000 J/KG OF
MLCAPE AND INCREASING FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH MAY
SUPPORT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TODAY. SIMILAR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED ON FRIDAY, WITH PERHAPS A LITTLE MORE UPPER SUPPORT AND
BULK SHEAR. THE DAY 2 SPC CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK HAS OUR AREA IN A
MARGINAL RISK, WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL
BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE
NEAR NORMAL, WHILE LOWS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
KEY MESSAGE 2: A DRYING AND WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK,
WITH HOT TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED HUMIDITY BY MIDWEEK.
THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO FILL IN, AS STRONG UPPER RIDGING ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST/SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL BUILD EAST OVER THE WEEKEND,
AND BECOME CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. DRY AIR
GRADUALLY WORKS IN FROM THE WEST, TAPERING DIURNAL CONVECTION
CHANCES TO MAINLY WIDELY SCATTERED IN THE MOUNTAINS AND ISOLATED
IN THE PIEDMONT. BY MONDAY, CONVECTION WILL BE LARGELY CONFINED
TO THE USUAL NC MOUNTAIN RIDGETOPS. ANOTHER ROUND OF HOT, HUMID
WEATHER IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY IN THE LATEST MEDIUM-RANGE GUIDANCE
TRENDS. HIGHS WILL BE BACK WELL INTO THE 90S EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS
BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, WITH HEAT INDICES POSSIBLY PUSHING INTO
THE 100-105 RANGE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER SAVANNAH VALLEY
AND THE CHARLOTTE AREA.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: AN AREA OF IFR TO MVFR STRATUS HAS SHIFTED
MAINLY JUST SOUTH OF THE UPSTATE TAF SITES, WHILE STILL PERSISTING
OVER KCLT TO START THE 12Z TAF PERIOD. MTN VALLEY FOG AND AREAS OF
FOG AROUND KHKY SHOULD IMPROVE QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE. EXPECT ALL
SITES TO GO VFR BY AROUND 16Z, WITH PLENTY OF VFR-LEVEL CU FORMING
THIS AFTN. A LITTLE BETTER COVERAGE OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE AREA THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVENING. OVERALL, EXPECT CONVECTION TO
START IN THE MTNS, THEN DRIFT EAST INTO THE PIEDMONT LATE AFTN THRU
LATE EVENING. CONVECTION SHOULD WANE OVERNIGHT. GUIDANCE GENERALLY
AGREES ON SIMILAR CONDITIONS TONIGHT, WITH AREAS OF IFR TO MVFR
STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THRU
THE PERIOD (EXCEPT POSSIBLE GUSTS AROUND THUNDERSTORMS), FAVORING
A S TO SW DIRECTION IN THE AFTN.
OUTLOOK: GOOD DIURNAL COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY,
WITH LESS COVERAGE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG AND LOW
STRATUS IS POSSIBLE EACH MORNING.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ035-056-
068-069-501>508-510.
SC...NONE.
ARK
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page