651
FXUS62 KGSP 190554
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
154 AM EDT FRI JUN 19 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
1. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE REMNANTS OF
ARTHUR TRACK ACROSS THE REGION. THE MAIN HAZARDS WITH THIS SYSTEM
ARE HEAVY RAINFALL CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING
AND ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS. HOWEVER, THERE WILL ALSO BE AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT,
MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-85.
2. FOLLOWING A STINT OF DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER ON SATURDAY
AND THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY, WE'LL SETTLE BACK INTO A TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME PATTERN, WITH WARM, MUGGY CONDITIONS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON FROM MONDAY ONWARD.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: RAIN CHANCES REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE
REMNANTS OF ARTHUR TRACK ACROSS THE REGION. THE MAIN HAZARDS WITH
THIS SYSTEM ARE HEAVY RAINFALL CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED FLASH
FLOODING AND ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS. HOWEVER, THERE WILL ALSO BE AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT,
MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-85.
THE REMNANTS OF ARTHUR WILL STEADILY LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE DEEP
SOUTH THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES OUT OF THE NORTHWEST.
THE REMNANTS OF ARTHUR WILL TRACK ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND
NORTHEAST GEORGIA LATE THIS EVENING INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE
THE COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND THE REMNANTS ON FRIDAY.
CONVECTION HAS BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING, AND
THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT. THIS STORM SYSTEM
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS AS WELL AS
ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING.
THE MAIN HAZARD WITH ANY SEVERE STORMS THAT DEVELOP IS DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS. HOWEVER, THERE WILL ALSO BE A LOW-END AND CONDITIONAL
ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT. TIMING FOR SEVERE STORMS STILL APPEARS TO
BE FROM NOW THROUGH AROUND 2 AM FRIDAY. THE SEVERE RISK WAS UPGRADED
TO A SLIGHT RISK ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINA PIEDMONT AND ALONG AND
SOUTH OF I-85 IN SOUTH CAROLINA AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA. A TORNADO
RISK WAS ALSO ADDED, MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-85, WHERE A SMALL
AREA OF STORM RELATIVE HELICITY OF 200+ J/KG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
IN THE VICINITY OF A MESO-LOW DEVELOPING IN ASSOCIATION WITH
ARTHUR'S REMNANT CORE. A MARGINAL RISK REMAINS IN PLACE ELSEWHERE.
THE TORNADO THREAT WILL BE HIGHLY CONDITIONAL AND DEPENDENT ON THE
EXACT TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE 850 MB LLJ AS WELL AS HOW MUCH
INSTABILITY REMAINS IN THE WAKE OF ONGOING CONVECTION.
AS FOR THE ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD THREAT WITH THE REMNANTS OF ARTHUR,
1.5-2"+ PWATS ARE IN PLACE THANKS TO LOW-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
PULLING IN RICH MOISTURE FROM THE GULF. THIS WILL ALLOW MODERATE TO
HEAVY DOWNPOURS TO DEVELOP AT TIMES THIS EVENING INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. NBM TRENDED UP WITH QPF THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING BUT IT STILL
APPEARS TOO LOW COMPARED TO THE 12Z HIGH-RES GUIDANCE. THUS, BLENDED
IN 20% OF THE NBM 90TH PERCENTILE QPF FOR THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT
TO BETTER MATCH UP WITH THE LATEST HIGH-RES TRENDS. ENDED UP WITH
1.5-2.5" ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE ESCARPMENT, NORTHEAST
GEORGIA, AND THE SOUTH CAROLINA UPSTATE WITH LOWER AMOUNTS STILL
EXPECTED ALONG AND NORTH OF I-40. 12Z HIGH-RES GUIDANCE IS STILL
SPLIT ON WHERE EXACTLY THE AXIS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR. FOR
NOW, IT APPEARS THAT ANYWHERE FROM THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE
ESCARPMENT DOWN TO NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE SOUTH CAROLINA UPSTATE
WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE LOCALLY HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3-
4"+. THE 12Z CAMS ARE STILL SPLIT ON WHETHER THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST
RAIN WILL FALL ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF I-85 OR ALONG AND JUST SOUTH
OF I-85. SO, CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE
AXIS OF HEAVY RAINFALL, THUS A FLOOD WATCH WILL NOT BE ISSUED AT
THIS TIME. ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOW LOW
PROBABILITIES OF >3" OF RAINFALL THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, WE
CANNOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED FLOODING ISSUES, MAINLY
ALONG/NEAR I-85 BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AND WILL DEPEND HEAVILY
ON WHERE THE AXIS OF HEAVY RAIN SETS UP.
DUE TO THE LOW CONFIDENCE ON WHERE EXACTLY THE FLASH FLOODING THREAT
WILL OCCUR, AS WELL AS WHETHER THE TORNADO THREAT WILL MATERIALIZE,
STAY WEATHER AWARE AND MAKE SURE YOU HAVE MULTIPLE WAYS TO RECEIVE
WARNINGS, ESPECIALLY WITH THE FLASH FLOOD AND TORNADO THREAT LINGER
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 2: FOLLOWING A STINT OF DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER ON
SATURDAY AND THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY, WE'LL SETTLE BACK INTO A
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN, WITH WARM, MUGGY CONDITIONS. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON FROM MONDAY
ONWARD.
BY SATURDAY, A WEAKENING FRONTAL ZONE WILL BE LOCATED JUST TO OUR
SOUTH. A FEW OF 12Z CAMS DEPICT SOME SHOWERS, PERHAPS EVEN A RUMBLE
OF THUNDER, SOUTH OF I-85 SATURDAY AFTERNOON, BUT GENERALLY THINK
THE INFLUENCE OF BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL
KEEP CONVECTIVE THREAT LIMITED...AND SEVERE THREAT VIRTUALLY NIL.
HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL TOP OUT AROUND OR PERHAPS A DEGREE OR TWO
BELOW NORMAL. BY ALL ACCOUNTS, A PLEASANT DAY!
ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY, A SERIES OF DE-AMPLIFYING Z500 SHORTWAVES
WILL DIG OUT OF THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS. SYNOPTIC GUIDANCE IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THESE WAVES WILL GENERALLY TRACK ACROSS
THE CENTRAL TO UPPER OHIO VALLEY, REMAINING EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
STRONGER UPPER FLOW TO OUR NORTH THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK.
AS A RESULT, THERE'S NO REAL IMPETUS FOR ANY SEVERE RISK SUNDAY,
MONDAY, AND TUESDAY, WITH ONLY TYPICAL SUMMERTIME DIURNAL CONVECTION
ANTICIPATED.
BY WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND, THE UPPER PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE
AMPLIFIED, AS TROUGHING DEEPENS OVER THE MIDWEST AND HEIGHTS FALL
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS IN RESPONSE. THERE'S NOT MUCH ENSEMBLE
CONSISTENCY IN DEPICTING ANY SPECIFIC IMPULSES ON WEDNESDAY
THRU FRIDAY...BUT THE PATTERN WILL BE SUCH THAT A SHORTWAVE OR
TWO MAY EJECT OUT OF THE OZARKS AND CROSS THE AREA LATE IN THE
WEEK...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN AN UPTICK IN CONVECTION AND SEVERE
CHANCES. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW, HOWEVER, ON ANYTHING MORE THAN
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: WE HAVE YET TO SEE LITTLE (IF ANY) LIGHTNING
OVER OUR FCST AREA OVER THE PAST FEW HRS AS INSTABILITY HAS BEEN
MINIMAL. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE THEIR WAY OVER
OUR AREA FROM THE W/SW FOR THE NEXT FEW HRS, AS THE REMNANTS OF TS
ARTHUR PASS OVER THE REGION. AS SUCH, I HAVE PREVAILING -RA AT MOST
TERMINALS, WITH TEMPOS FOR RA OR +RA AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS
UNTIL ROUGHLY 09Z, WITH RAIN LINGERING A BIT LONGER AT KCLT AND
KHKY. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO IFR AT MOST SITES DURING THE
FIRST FEW HRS OF THE TAF PERIOD. CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE QUICKLY AROUND
SUNRISE, AS FLOW TURNS NWLY/DOWNSLOPE AS SFC LOW PRESSURE MOVE EAST
OF OUR AREA. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN AT MOST TERMINALS BY 12
TO 14Z, WITH LOWER CIGS HANGING ON A BIT LONGER AT KCLT. THE REST
OF THE PERIOD SHOULD BE VFR AND MOSTLY DRY. A FEW SHOWERS AND/OR
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY ACROSS THE SC
UPSTATE, BUT CHANCES APPEAR TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS
TIME. OUTSIDE THE MTNS, WINDS WILL REMAIN S/SW THRU THE OVERNIGHT,
TURNING W AND THEN NW IN THE WAKE OF THE SFC THIS MORNING/AFTERNOON.
THEY WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME MORE NLY LATER THIS EVENING. AT KAVL,
WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND VRB THRU THE OVERNIGHT. THEY WILL PICK UP
FROM THE NW BY MID-MORNING WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS FOR THE REST
OF THE DAY.
OUTLOOK: DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT THRU
EARLY SUNDAY. AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL RETURN EACH DAY SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
AR/JDL/JPT/MPR
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