901
FXUS62 KGSP 071808
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
208 PM EDT SUN JUN 7 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH TODAY'S FORECAST PACKAGE.
THE AVIATION DISCUSSION WAS UPDATED FOR THE 18Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
1. MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN MONDAY
AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN
MONDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK.
A SHARP TROUGH WILL DRIFT EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE DEEP
SOUTH, WORKING TO SPLIT AN UPPER RIDGE. THIS TROUGH WILL STALL
OVER THE SOUTHEAST, REMAINING AS A WEAKNESS WITHIN THE BROADER
UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS THRU WEDNESDAY. DEEPER
MOISTURE AND LOWER HEIGHTS WITHIN THIS FEATURE WILL HELP BRING
BACK MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA STARTING
MONDAY. AT THE SFC, A WEAK FRONT WILL SLIP SOUTH/SOUTHWESTWARD
ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC TONIGHT AND STALL OUT ROUGHLY ACROSS THE
NC PIEDMONT. PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER WILL ALSO SPREAD IN FROM THE
WEST AND HELP KEEP MAX TEMPS A FEW DEG BELOW NORMAL IN THE FAR
WESTERN ZONES, WHILE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE
I-77 CORRIDOR. SEVERE CHANCES WILL REMAIN LOW, AS INSTABILITY WILL
BE MODEST, SHEAR WEAK, AND DCAPE ON THE LOW-SIDE GIVEN DEEP-LAYER
MOISTURE. A MARGINAL EXCESSIVE RAIN/FLASH FLOOD THREAT MAY DEVELOP
MONDAY AFTN AND CONTINUE THRU TUESDAY, AS CONVECTION WILL HAVE
EFFICIENT RAIN RATES. PWATS WILL BE UP AROUND 2" AND STORMS WILL
BE SLOW-MOVING. GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT A FAIR AMOUNT OF STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT AND SLOW TO ERODE THRU THE DAY
TUESDAY. DESPITE THIS, SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW
STORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA. HIGHS TUESDAY LOOK TO BE A
FEW DEG BELOW NORMAL UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THE
STALLED SFC FRONT WASHES OUT. PWATS REMAIN HIGH, BUT THE PATTERN
SUPPORTS A MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL CONVECTIVE COVERAGE EACH DAY THRU
THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPS WILL WARM ABOVE NORMAL WITH MUGGIER
CONDITIONS. HEAT INDEX VALUES EXPECTED TO CREEP INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 90S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT, BUT NOT EXPECTED TO APPROACH
ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 105.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: CIRRUS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER THE
AREA THOUGH THE PERIOD, WITH A CONVECTIVE CU FIELD UNDERNEATH THIS
AFTN INTO THIS EVENING. INCREASING MOISTURE OUT OF THE WEST WILL
BE MAINLY MID CLOUDS, WHICH WILL LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL EVEN IN THE
USUAL FOG-PRONE VALLEYS. SOME GUIDANCE HAS IFR TO MVFR STRATUS
FORMING OVER NORTHERN GA THAT MAY EXPAND EAST INTO THE UPSTATE,
BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW. WILL ADD A FEW MVFR CLOUDS TO KAND
MONDAY MORNING. GENERALLY SW WINDS THRU EARLY EVENING, EXCEPT
MORE VRB AT KAVL. A BOUNDARY WILL SLIP IN FROM THE NE BY DAYBREAK
MONDAY, TOGGLING WINDS OUT OF THE E/NE AT KHKY, BUT MAY NOT REACH
KCLT. THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE A FOCUS FOR SOME CONVECTION LATE AFTN
AROUND KCLT. TYPICAL DIURNAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO FORM ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS, BUT JUST BEYOND THE 18Z TAF PERIOD FOR KAVL.
OUTLOOK: DIURNAL CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS RETURN
MONDAY AND CONTINUE THRU THE WEEK. WIDESPREAD IFR CEILINGS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. OTHERWISE, MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG AND LOW STRATUS WILL BE
POSSIBLE EACH MORNING.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
ARK
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