158
FXUS62 KGSP 270026
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
726 PM EST THU FEB 26 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO EVENING PRECIP CHANCES AND REVISED
OVERNIGHT FOG FORECAST.
DRY FRIDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1. SHOWERS TAPER OFF FROM NW TO SE THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA. LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG, SOME POSSIBLY DENSE
OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS SLOWLY LIFT THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY.
2. DRY AND WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH COOLER AND WETTER
CONDITIONS TO START NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: SHOWERS TAPER OFF FROM NW TO SE THIS EVENING AS A COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE AREA. LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG, SOME POSSIBLY
DENSE OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS SLOWLY LIFT THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY.
PREFRONTAL CONVERGENCE/BAROCLINIC ZONE NOW NEAR I-20 IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEST-EAST BAND OF RAIN WITH A COUPLE OF EMBEDDED
T-STORMS. THOUGH DRIER MIDLEVEL AIR HAS REACHED THE NORTHERN TWO
THIRDS OF THE CWA WITH AN ILL-DEFINED COLD FRONT, WE STILL HAVE
NOT SEEN AIRMASS CHANGE, AND LOW LEVELS REMAIN MOIST, WITH PATCHY
LOW CLOUD COVER STILL PRESENT OVER MOST OF THE PIEDMONT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS, SOME SEVERE, ARE ONGOING IN NORTHERN MS/AL,
WHERE THE COLD FRONT IS MAKING MORE RAPID PROGRESS AS IT INTERACTS
WITH A SECOND SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE MEAN LOW-AMPLITUDE TROUGH
ALOFT. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR PROGRESS OF THESE STORMS AS THEY TRACK
EAST, THOUGH LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD WEAKEN THEM AND WE
MAY NOT HAVE ENOUGH MUCAPE TO SUSTAIN THEM AS IT IS. THE APPROACH
OF THE SHORTWAVE DOES STILL LOOK TO REACTIVATE THE FRONT TO SOME
EXTENT AND BRING STRATIFORM PRECIP WITH EMBEDDED ISOLATED STORMS
BACK NORTH INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
EXPECT THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO WEAKEN AND TURN NORTHEASTERLY AS
THE SFC FRONT SLOWLY SAGS SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT. COPIOUS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE LINGERS AND A LOW LEVEL INVERSION DEVELOPS. THIS WILL KEEP
LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA WITH PATCHY FOG, SOME POSSIBLY DENSE BY
MORNING. EXPECT THE FOG TO DISSIPATE BY NOON FRIDAY, BUT LOW CLOUDS
COULD LINGER THROUGH THE DAY, ESPECIALLY OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS,
BUT THE BULK OF THE DAY SHOULD BE DRY. RIGHT NOW, HAVE HIGHS
AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND NEAR NORMAL
ELSEWHERE. THAT SAID, HIGHS COULD BE LOWER, ESPECIALLY OUTSIDE OF
THE MOUNTAINS DEPENDING ON HOW LONG THE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS LAST.
KEY MESSAGE 2: DRY AND WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH COOLER AND WETTER
CONDITIONS TO START NEXT WEEK.
BY THIS WEEKEND, A MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BE DRAPED FROM THE
CANADIAN ROCKIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO NEW ENGLAND.
WEAK FLOW WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES IN THE FAR
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. THE TROUGH AXIS WILL
SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH RISING HEIGHTS AND
QUASI-ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM
BACK TO ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGE FOR LATE FEBRUARY WITH MID 60S TO MID
70S COMMON, ESPECIALLY BY SUNDAY. A NOTABLE PATTERN CHANGE OCCURS BY
THE START OF THE NEW WEEK, HOWEVER. A SPRAWLING 1040MB SURFACE HIGH
WILL SHIFT FROM OUT OF THE MIDWEST INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC/NEW ENGLAND
WITH A RESULTING COLD AIR DAMMING WEDGE SETTING UP SHOP OVER THE
CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA. AT THE SAME TIME, A BELT OF WEAK,
BUT PERTURBED, SOUTHERN STREAM FLOW WILL RESIDE FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. A WEAK LEAD WAVE WILL
TRANSLATE ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH A RETURN OF PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. SUBSEQUENT WAVES MAY BRING ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF
PRECIPITATION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, BUT FORECAST CONFIDENCE
RAPIDLY WANES AS GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE DIVERGES WITH RESPECT TO THE
SYNOPTIC EVOLUTION. THERMAL PROFILES MAY SUPPORT A WINTRY MIX ACROSS
THE HIGHEST MOUNTAIN ELEVATIONS/NORTHERN MOUNTAINS, BUT CONFIDENCE
IS TOO LOW TO WARRANT MUCH MORE THAN A BRIEF MENTION IN THE
FORECAST. OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES ELSEWHERE ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST
TO BE TOO WARM FOR ANY WINTRY MISCHIEF. SPEAKING OF TEMPERATURES,
MONDAY WILL BE A RUDE AWAKENING WITH CHILLY HIGHS IN THE CAD WEDGE
THAT MAY BE UPWARDS OF 20-25 DEGREES COLDER COMPARED TO SUNDAY.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: PATCHES OF BOTH STRATOCU CAUSING VARYING
IFR TO LOW MVFR CIGS AROUND THE AREA, WITH VFR AT KAVL AND
KAND AT 00Z. IN GENERAL SOME BRIEF IMPROVEMENT IS POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING WHERE THESE CIGS ARE IN PLACE. BAND OF SHRA ACROSS GA
AND CENTRAL SC COULD SHIFT NORTHWARD AGAIN LATER THIS EVENING
AND POSSIBLY REINTRODUCE PRECIP AND LOWER CIGS NEAR KAND. THOUGH
COLD FRONT WILL MAKE SLOW SOUTHWARD PROGRESS ACROSS THE TERMINALS
OVERNIGHT, IT LOOKS UNLIKELY TO LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT DRYING NEAR
THE SURFACE, AND AS HIGHER ALTITUDE CLOUDS ADVECT OUT RADIATIONAL
COOLING LOOKS CAPABLE OF CAUSING WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR CIGS TO
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. SOME AREAS OF FOG/CIGS AT OR BELOW MINIMA ARE
POSSIBLE. EXCEPT FOR KAVL, LIFR TO VLIFR FORECAST AT SOME POINT
OVERNIGHT. LIGHT SW WINDS WILL TURN NE BEHIND FRONT WITH SOME
VARIABILITY POSSIBLE IN BETWEEN. SLOW IMPROVEMENT THROUGH THE
MORNING, WITH MVFR CIGS RETURNING BY MID-AFTERNOON FRI. KAVL AND
KHKY HAVE BETTER ACCESS TO DRY AIR AND HENCE SEE CIGS SCATTER BY
16-17Z FRI.
OUTLOOK: RESTRICTIONS COULD REDEVELOP IN SOME AREAS FRIDAY NIGHT,
BUT DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN BY SATURDAY. ANOTHER FRONT
MAY BRING SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
JCW/RWH/TW
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