145
FXUS62 KGSP 061729
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
129 PM EDT THU AUG 6 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
WARMING TREND CONTINUES FOR NEXT WEEK.
KEY MESSAGES
1. RAIN CHANCES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND. ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING AND A STRONG STORM OR TWO ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA EACH DAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
2. A RETURN TO SEASONABLY HOT CONDITIONS AND TYPICAL COVERAGE
OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS IS EXPECTED STARTING
SUNDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: RAIN CHANCES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND. ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING AND A STRONG STORM OR TWO ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA EACH DAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
THE CWA REMAINS IN BETWEEN TWO RIDGES WITH A TROUGH LOCATED TO THE
NORTH THROUGH AT LEAST THE WEEKEND. THE SOUTHERN MOST EDGE OF THE
TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEY. DEPENDING ON HOW
FAR SOUTH IT DIPS, COULD INCREASE OR DECREASE THE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA, ESPECIALLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. EITHER WAY, IT'S A RETURN TO NORMAL DIURNALLY DRIVEN
CONVECTION AND SHOWERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EXPECTING SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO MAINLY BE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS (60-90%) AND
A LOWER CHANCE (20-40%) EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH SUNDAY. THOUGH
NOT OUTLOOKED, AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM IS POSSIBLE EACH DAY.
ADDITIONALLY, TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW-NORMAL FOR AUGUST THROUGH AT
LEAST SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS EAST OF THE CAROLINAS.
KEY MESSAGE 2: A RETURN TO SEASONABLY HOT CONDITIONS AND TYPICAL
COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS IS EXPECTED
STARTING SUNDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.
THROUGH SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK, A LARGE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST INTO
NEW ENGLAND, WHICH HELP PUSH THE HIGH PRESSURE SOUTHWARD. AT THE
SAME TIME, THE RIDGE IS FORECASTED TO MOVE SOUTHWEST CREATING
TYPICAL HOT SUMMER CONDITIONS WITH UPPER 80S AND 90S. CONVECTION
ACROSS NEXT WEEK IS STILL UNCERTAIN AS SOME MODELS SHOW A PLACEMENT
OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND SOME SAYING THIS BOUNDARY WON'T DIP DOWN
INTO THE AREA. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT A FRONT MAY SAG SOUTH
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. A SOUTHERN SHIFT OF
THIS FRONT MAY IMPACT DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WITH THE AREA
RESIDING ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE BERMUDA HIGH. THIS WOULD ALSO
RESULT IN A WET PATTERN THAT WOULD CONTINUE FURTHER INTO THE WEEK AS
BOUTS OF CONVECTION MAKE RUNS AT THE AREA FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. FOR
NOW, THE FORECAST REFLECTS TYPICAL SUMMER POPS WITH THE BEST SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BEING OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THE MAIN RISKS
FROM THESES DAILY STORMS ARE HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: TSRA POSSIBLE AGAIN THROUGH THIS EVENING, BUT
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOWER, SO A PROB30 AT ALL SITES CONTINUE. BR AND
LOW STRATUS COULD RETURN OVERNIGHT AT MOST TERMINALS, ESPECIALLY
WHERE RAIN FELL. TEMPO FOR KAVL AND KHKY FOR 1SM VSBY. LIGHT TO CALM
WINDS OVERNIGHT AND LIGHTLY PICK UP OUT OF THE SW FRIDAY. ANOTHER
ROUND OF SCATTERED TSRA SO PROB30 AT KCLT FOR FRIDAY. VCSH FOR KAVL
AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. BKN/SCT CIGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR
FOR FRIDAY.
OUTLOOK: SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, WITH ASSOCIATED FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS, ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. PATCHY FOG AND
LOW STRATUS ARE POSSIBLE EACH MORNING, ESPECIALLY IN THE MTN VALLEYS
AND ANYWHERE THAT RECEIVED SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL THE PREVIOUS
DAY/EVENING.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
CP
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