362
FXUS62 KGSP 220757
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
357 AM EDT MON JUN 22 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
TEMPERATURES ARE TRENDING WARMER FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
KEY MESSAGES
1. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL INCREASE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA TODAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH
DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN HAZARD.
2. BRIEF DRYING DEVELOPS WEDNESDAY BEFORE DIURNAL SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AND THE
WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS ARE EXPECTED TO
CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S OVER THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL INCREASE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA TODAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN HAZARD.
SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP THIS MORNING ACROSS OUR WESTERN
ZONES AS DEEPER MOISTURE SPREADS OVER THE AREA FROM THE WEST.
ANY THUNDER/LIGHTNING APPEARS UNLIKELY THRU THE MORNING AS THE
SOUNDINGS SHOW TOO MUCH CONVECTIVE INHIBITION/NEGATIVE BUOYANCY
ACROSS OUR AREA. BETTER SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A LINE OF STORMS DEVELOPS AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE LATEST HIGH-RES MODEL GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO DEPICT 20 TO 30 KTS OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AHEAD OF THE
FRONT AND 1500 TO 2500 J/KG OF SFC-BASED CAPE DEVELOPING DURING
PEAK HEATING TODAY. THUS, STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE.
THE MAIN HAZARD STILL APPEARS TO BE DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS
FROM ANY STRONGER STORMS. THE LATEST NEAR-TERM GUIDANCE STILL HAS
THE MAIN LINE/CLUSTER OF CONVECTION MOVING THROUGH OUR FCST AREA
FROM ROUGHLY 4 PM TO MIDNIGHT, HOWEVER THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE REMAINS UNCLEAR. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS FAR MORE ISO-
LATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE THAN OTHERS. IN ADDITION, SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE ACROSS THE
NC FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR THE SEVERE
THREAT TO DEVELOP A BIT EARLIER. ALTHOUGH SPC'S CURRENT SLIGHT
RISK AREA COVERS NEARLY ALL OF OUR CWA, CONFIDENCE REGARDING THE
SEVERE THREAT EAST OF THE MTNS REMAINS LOWER BECAUSE ACTIVITY IS
NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST OF THE MTNS UNTIL AFTER PEAK HEATING
TODAY. THUS, DAMAGING WINDS STILL APPEAR MORE LIKELY ACROSS THE
NC MTNS AND ALONG AND NORTH OF I-40 WHERE MORE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP DURING PEAK HEATING HRS. IN ADDITION, BREEZY SWLY WINDS
ARE ALSO EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT TODAY, ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE
MTNS WHERE 20 TO 30 MPH GUSTS ARE EXPECTED. ANY LINGERING THUNDER-
STORM ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE EAST OF OUR CWA SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT,
HOWEVER MOST OF THE NEAR-TERM GUIDANCE BRINGS ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
OVER THE NC MTNS BEHIND THE FRONT OVERNIGHT AND INTO TUES MORNING.
AS THE FRONT APPEARS HESITANT TO COMPLETELY EXIT OUR AREA ON TUES,
SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AGAIN TUES AFTN/EARLY
EVENING ALONG THE FRONT (MAINLY ACROSS THE SC UPSTATE), BUT CONFI-
DENCE IS STILL FAIRLY LOW. POPS REMAIN IN THE 20 TO 30% RANGE DURING
THIS TIME WINDOW.
KEY MESSAGE 2: BRIEF DRYING DEVELOPS WEDNESDAY BEFORE DIURNAL SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AND THE
WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS ARE EXPECTED TO
CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S OVER THE WEEKEND.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER OUR REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
ALLOWING BRIEF DRYING ACROSS OUR AREA AND NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIP
CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY. DIURNAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
RETURN BY THURSDAY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES OUR AREA FROM
THE NW AND INCREASINGLY MOIST, SLY FLOW PERSISTS. DIURNAL CONVEC-
TIVE CHANCES WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO
THE WEEKEND, WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO WARM EACH DAY. THERE'S
A DECENT CHANCE THAT WE WILL SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES BACK IN THE LOW
TO MID 90S BY SUNDAY WITH HEAT INDICES EXCEEDING 100 DEGREES OVER
OUR SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN ZONES.
AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: EXPECT DRY, VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE
AT ALL TERMINALS THRU THE MORNING. FEW TO SCT HIGH CLOUDS AND
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL PICK UP AGAIN FROM THE SW
BY LATE MORNING. AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT, WINDS
STRENGTHEN EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON WITH
GUSTS OF 15 TO 25 KTS EXPECTED. TSRA CHANCES ALSO INCREASE
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS SOME AMOUNT OF PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION
IS EXPECTED TO MATERIALIZE OVER OUR AREA. IT REMAINS UNCLEAR
HOW MUCH CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WE SHOULD EXPECT THRU THE AFTN
AND EVENING, WITH THE CAM GUIDANCE VARYING CONSIDERABLY FROM
RUN TO RUN. IT ALSO REMAINS UNCLEAR HOW LATE THE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL LINGER, AND WHETHER OR NOT THE ACTIVITY ALONG THE FRONT
ITSELF EARLY TUESDAY WILL BE MOSTLY JUST SHOWERS. NONETHELESS,
IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE NC MTNS WILL SEE THE BEST CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE, SO I HAVE PREVAILING -TSRA AT KAVL BEGINNING AROUND
18Z TODAY WITH VCTS THIS EVENING FOR ANY LINGERING CONVECTION
AT KAVL. FOR KHKY, I HAVE A TEMPO FOR TSRA FROM 19 TO 23Z WITH
VCTS AFTER THAT. FOR KCLT AND THE UPSTATE TERMINALS, POPS ARE
LOWER OVERALL AND CONFIDENCE WRT TIMING IS LOWER, SO I KEPT
PROB30S FOR TSRA FROM ROUGHLY 18 TO 24Z TODAY WITH VCTS FOR
ANY LINGERING ACTIVITY.
OUTLOOK: EXPECT DRIER CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY, WITH DIURNAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASING
AGAIN ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
JPT
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