470
FXUS62 KGSP 311753
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
153 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO FORECAST TRENDS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
KEY MESSAGES
1. WARMING TEMPERATURE TREND CONTINUES TODAY WITH ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE. BETTER SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY.
2. DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING WELL ABOVE NORMAL.
3. COLD FRONT SUNDAY BRINGS A CHANCE FOR MORE APPRECIABLE RAINFALL
FOLLOWED BY COOLER CONDITIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: WARMING TEMPERATURE TREND CONTINUES TODAY WITH ISOLATED
TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE. BETTER SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY.
EXTENDED SOUTHEAST RIDGING AND CONTINUED SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
WILL AID IN A WARMING TREND STARTING TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. BETTER
MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL HELP TO KICK OFF ISOLATED SHOWERS TODAY
WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS REACHING INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER
80S. BEST CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL BE OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. LINGERING STRATUS IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN
THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S (MID 50S ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS).
ANOTHER DAY IN THE WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS WILL ALLOW FOR DEEPER
DESTABILIZATION ON WEDNESDAY. CAMS CONTINUE TO SHOW BETTER COVERAGE
OF CONVECTION DURING PEAK HEATING AS CAPE VALUES RISE. BETTER
CONVECTIVE CHANCES ARE EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
DUE TO BETTER ACCESS TO A TRIGGER MECHANISM. AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE
FORECAST TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.
KEY MESSAGE 2: DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING WELL
ABOVE NORMAL.
BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS STRONG IN THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK,
EXTENDING OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES. MODELS REMAIN PRETTY CONSISTENT
IN SHOWING DRY MIDLEVEL AIR ADVECTING INLAND THURSDAY, SEEMINGLY
ORIGINATING VIA STRONG SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE OFFSHORE RIDGE. THIS HAS
A SUPPRESSING EFFECT ON CONVECTION THURSDAY SUCH THAT PRECIP CHANCES
TREND LOWER BRIEFLY, THOUGH ISOLATED OR WIDELY SCATTERED COVERAGE
STILL IS POSSIBLE THAT AFTERNOON OVER THE MOUNTAINS. FLOW BACKS
TO SE WHICH STILL APPEARS TO BRING THE SEA BREEZE FRONT INTO THE
AREA, HOWEVER, INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE THU NIGHT. MEANWHILE,
ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH, A SFC/UPPER LOW TRACKS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT. 850-700MB FLOW VEERS TO SW'LY AGAIN OVER THE
AREA IN RESPONSE, AND MIDLEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES. THESE CHANGES
COULD RESULT IN VERY LIGHT PRECIP DEVELOPING EARLY FRIDAY MORNING
OVER THE SOUTHERN CWA, BUT PERHAPS MORE NOTABLY MAKE VERTICAL
PROFILES MORE FAVORABLE FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION FRIDAY. POPS THUS
TREND HIGHER ONCE AGAIN THAT AFTERNOON WITH THE MOUNTAINS HAVING
BETTER CHANCES AS USUAL. SOME VERY LIGHT SHOWERS COULD CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING IN OUR SOUTHWESTERN ZONES WITH
SOME DEGREE OF WAA CONTINUING IN LOW LEVELS, AND WEAK ELEVATED
INSTABILITY. DIURNAL CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL APPEARS SIMILAR SATURDAY
COMPARED TO FRIDAY. DESPITE THE MOISTURE ALOFT, WITHOUT STRONG
FORCING AND ONLY MODEST CAPE VALUES GENERALLY PEAKING BELOW 500
J/KG, RAINFALL IS NOT LIKELY TO BE ENOUGH AT ANY ONE LOCATION TO
IMPROVE DROUGHT CONDITIONS. HIGHER MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
SHOULD HOWEVER HELP MITIGATE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO
SOME DEGREE.
BOTH MORNING MINS AND AFTERNOON MAXES REMAIN ON THE ORDER OF 10-15
ABOVE NORMAL IN THE THU-SAT PERIOD.
KEY MESSAGE 3: COLD FRONT SUNDAY BRINGS A CHANCE FOR MORE APPRECIABLE
RAINFALL FOLLOWED BY COOLER CONDITIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MODELS DEPICT A CUTOFF LOW TRACKING THRU THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY, WHICH STILL LOOKS TO PULL A COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS SUNDAY. WHILE THE BEST DYNAMIC FORCING
IS STILL DEPICTED AS REMAINING WELL TO OUR NORTH, SOME DPVA IS
PROGGED TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT INTO THE AREA. A NARROW ZONE OF 1.4"
TO 1.5" PWAT ALSO IS NOTED ALONG IT. LAPSE RATES ARE RELATIVELY
WEAK, THOUGH, AND GIVEN THE CURRENT EXPECTED TIMING, THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON DESTABILIZATION IS TO OUR EAST. THEREFORE,
DESPITE IMPROVING SHEAR, THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS
MINIMAL DUE TO THE LACK OF INSTABILITY. MODEL QPF WOULD NOT BE
REMARKABLE WERE OUR ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS NOT SO DRY. LREF 75TH
PERCENTILE IS NOT EVEN AN INCH IN THE WESTERN NC MOUNTAINS, WHERE
DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS ARE LEAST LIKELY TO REDUCE PRECIP POTENTIAL,
AND NOT EVEN A HALF INCH IN THE I-77 CORRIDOR. NONETHELESS THIS
CURRENTLY LOOKS THE BEST SHOT AT WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING PRECIP
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, AND THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK FOR THAT MATTER. DRY CONTINENTAL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT, BRINGING TEMPERATURES BACK TO AROUND
NORMAL, OR EVEN A LITTLE BELOW, SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. LOW
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS LIKELY TO RETURN MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WHICH COULD BE AN IMPORTANT CONSIDERATION FOR FIRE WEATHER,
PARTICULARLY WHERE RAINFALL ENDS UP INSIGNIFICANT THROUGH SUNDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD AT ALL TERMINALS. THE DECK OF VFR STRATUS HAS MOSTLY
SCATTERED OUT WITH VERY LOW VFR STRATOCU DEVELOPING. SOME INSTANCES
OF MVFR, WHICH FORCED A SHORT FUSED TEMPO AT KAND FOR BKN030. A
COUPLE OF SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP, BUT COVERAGE WILL BE VERY ISOLATED
SO KEPT TAFS DRY THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT. SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LOW-END GUSTS POSSIBLE
DURING THE AFTERNOON TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY, BUT MAINLY AFTER 18Z, SO PLACED
A PROB30 AT KCLT FOR -RA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK: DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
CAC/JCW
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