912
FXUS62 KGSP 240012
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
812 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
TONIGHT'S THREATS FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING AND SEVERE WEATHER HAVE
LARGELY PASSED.
AVIATION DISCUSSION HAS BEEN UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
1. COLD AIR DAMMING CONDITIONS AND SHOWER CHANCES CONTINUE TONIGHT,
BUT THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING, AS WELL AS SEVERE
WEATHER IS WANING.
2. UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK AS THE
LARGE-SCALE PATTERN USHERS GULF MOISTURE INTO THE CAROLINAS AND
NORTHEAST GEORGIA.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: COLD AIR DAMMING CONDITIONS AND SHOWER CHANCES
CONTINUE TONIGHT, BUT THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING,
AS WELL AS SEVERE WEATHER IS WANING.
COLD AIR DAMMING CONDITIONS REMAIN FULLY ENSCONCED ACROSS THE AREA
THIS EVENING, WITH LOW CLOUDS AND COOL CONDITIONS LINGERING. SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LARGELY CONTAINED TO THE UNSTABLE AIR
IN THE VICINITY OF, AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE CAD BOUNDARY. EVEN
THIS ACTIVITY HAS BEEN STEADILY DIMINISHING IN TERMS OF COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO, AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE
AS THE AIR MASS STEADILY STABILIZES IN THE WARM SECTOR.
SPOTTY SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE IN LIGHT OF THE VERY MOIST AIR
MASS, WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT, AND WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW IN PLACE. HOWEVER,
THE THREATS FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING AND ESPECIALLY SEVERE WEATHER
APPEAR TO HAVE PASSED. AS THE CAD GRADUALLY WEAKENS/BECOMES
INCREASINGLY SHALLOW, DENSE FOG MAY BECOME A CONCERN EARLY SUNDAY,
BUT THIS IS FAR FROM CERTAIN AT THIS JUNCTURE.
KEY MESSAGE 2: UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK
AS THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN USHERS GULF MOISTURE INTO THE CAROLINAS
AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA.
SYNOPTIC GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT BROAD TROUGHING
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS WHILE UPPER RIDGING
WILL STAY CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC FROM SUNDAY THROUGH
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THIS CONFIGURATION IS FAVORABLE FOR STEADY
MOISTURE FLUX OFF THE GULF, MEANING MAINLY DIURNAL PERIODS OF
GENERALLY WIDESPREAD CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE. ENSEMBLES STILL
STRUGGLE TO CONSISTENTLY PLACE THE REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY, BUT BY
PATTERN RECOGNITION ALONE, PERIODS OF IN-SITU COLD AIR DAMMING WOULD
APPEAR POSSIBLE.
CONFIDENCE IN SPECIFICS REMAINS LOW AS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO VARY ON
WHICH PERIODS HAVE THE BEST PRECIP CHANCES AND HIGHEST QPF, BUT
THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE SOME CONVERGENCE ON MONDAY HAVING HIGHER
PRECIP AND HEAVY RAIN CHANCES. ONE THING THAT'S MORE CERTAIN IS
THIS: THE DREARY WEATHER ISN'T GOING ANYWHERE ANYTIME SOON.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: LINGERING COLD AIR DAMMING (CAD) WILL
RESULT IN CONTINUED LOW CIGS THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY MORNING,
WITH LIFR CIGS EXPECTED TO SETTLE IN AT ALL TAF SITES BY AROUND
MIDNIGHT. REDUCED VISBY IN BR IS ALSO EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE
OF A CONCERN AS NE WINDS STEADILY WEAKEN, WITH 1-2SM EXPECTED
AT MOST SITES DURING THE OVERNIGHT. CAN'T RULE OUT LOWER VISBY,
ESPECIALLY AT KAVL. SHOWER COVERAGE HAS DIMINISHED CONSIDERABLY
ACROSS THE TERMINAL FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING, AND ORGANIZED AREAS
OF PRECIP ARE UNLIKELY TO IMPACT THE TAF SITES UNTIL AT LEAST SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. HAVING SAID THAT, CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN QUITE MOIST,
SO CAN'T RULE OUT A SHOWER AT ANY TIME & LOCATION TONIGHT/TOMORROW
MORNING. THIS IS HANDLED WITH VCSH AND/OR PROB30S FOR -SHRA AT
ALL SITES.
CONFIDENCE IS MODEST AT BEST REGARDING CIG/VISBY TRENDS BEYOND
SUNDAY MORNING, BUT WITH CONDITIONS STEADILY BECOMING LESS FAVORABLE
FOR CAD MAINTENANCE, IT SEEMS PRUDENT TO REFLECT STEADILY IMPROVING
CONDITIONS TO AT LEAST MVFR DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE POTENTIAL
FOR DIURNALLY-DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO INCREASE
DURING THE AFTERNOON, WARRANTING PROB30S FOR -TSRA AT MOST SITES
AT SOME POINT DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. ENE WINDS BECOME LIGHT
OVERNIGHT, THEN LIGHT/VARIABLE OR CALM DURING THE MORNING, LIKELY
BECOMING LIGHT SOUTHERLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK: THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACTIVE FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE,
WITH ABOVE-NORMAL COVERAGE OF DIURNAL CONVECTION AND OVERNIGHT
FOG/LOW CLOUDS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NEW WORK WEEK. PERIODS OF
CONVECTION MAY ALSO OCCUR OUTSIDE OF THE TYPICAL DIURNAL CONVECTIVE
WINDOW.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
JDL/RWH
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page