548
FXUS62 KGSP 162354
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
654 PM EST MON FEB 16 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED FOR NEW AVIATION DISCUSSION.
ADDED A MENTION OF PATCHY DENSE FOG FOR TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1. PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. GENERALLY DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WORKWEEK, TRENDING WARMER THROUGH FRIDAY.
2. SMALL CHANCES FOR RAIN RETURN LATE WED INTO THU AS THE NEXT
SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA. RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE INTO THIS
WEEKEND, AS TEMPS TREND COOLER.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. GENERALLY DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WORKWEEK, TRENDING WARMER THROUGH FRIDAY.
THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN OF THE
CAROLINAS THIS EVENING WILL DRIFT OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON
TUESDAY. MEANWHILE, A 925-700MB RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY. THESE CHANGES WILL PERMIT INCREASINGLY DEEP
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW TO MIDLEVEL FLOW, AND GRADUAL HEIGHT RISES ALOFT,
PROMOTING A SLOW UPWARD TREND IN AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY; MAXES IN THE PIEDMONT AND MOUNTAIN VALLEYS WILL BE IN
THE 60S, 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
WITH THE SFC HIGH BEING CENTERED OVERHEAD TONIGHT AND SKIES
REMAINING MOSTLY CLEAR, STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING IS EXPECTED, AND
CROSSOVER TEMPS ARE WITHIN REACH. THE RECENT RAINFALL PROVIDES THE
OPPORTUNITY FOR FOG TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT, AND SOME LOCALIZED
AREAS OF DENSE FOG WITH 1/4 MILE VISIBILITY OR LESS WILL BE
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO TUE MORNING; GREATEST POTENTIAL LOOKS
TO BE BETWEEN I-85 AND THE BLUE RIDGE ESCARPMENT.
THE WARMING TREND TOWARD MIDWEEK WILL BE MORE NOTICEABLE IN TERMS OF
MIN TEMPS, WITH WINDS REMAINING SOUTHWESTERLY AND PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENING BETWEEN THE OFFSHORE SFC HIGH AND THE SFC/UPPER LOW
MOVING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST, KEEPING WINDS UP OVERNIGHT. WARM
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THAT SYSTEM EFFECTIVELY CROSSES THE AREA LATE
TUE NIGHT OR EARLY WED, SO FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT REMAINS POSSIBLE
AND WOULD ALSO HELP BUOY OVERNIGHT TEMPS. AS THAT SYSTEM OCCLUDES
ITS COLD FRONT LOOKS TO STALL AND REVERSE OVER THE TN VALLEY,
AS NEXT LOW DEVELOPS IN THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. SMALL
20-30% POPS ARE FORECAST WED NIGHT AND EARLY THU WITH ABUNDANT
CLOUD COVER. CURRENT FORECAST MINS WED NIGHT CHALLENGE THE RECORD
HIGH-MINS AT GSP AND CLT, WITH AFTN MAXES THU JUST SHY OF RECORDS
IN THE CURRENT FORECAST AND SUGGESTING TEMPS REMAIN ABOVE THE
HI-MIN THROUGH MIDNIGHT THU NIGHT. RECORD MAX TEMPS ALSO APPEAR
POSSIBLE FRIDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2: SMALL CHANCES FOR RAIN RETURN LATE WED INTO
THU AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA. RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE
INTO THIS WEEKEND, AS TEMPS TREND COOLER.
AFTER A RELATIVELY DRY WEEK, MODEL GUIDANCE HINTS AT A POTENTIAL
PATTERN CHANGE GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. LEADING UP TO FRIDAY, THE
OVERALL PATTERN LOOKS BENIGN AS THE MID-LEVEL AIR REMAINS QUASI
ZONAL AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST CONTINUES TO
AMPLIFY. HOWEVER, A FEW OF THE MODELS IN THE LONG RANGE DEPICT A
WEAK FUJIWHARA EFFECT OF TWO AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST, THROWING A KINK IN THE 500MB FLOW. THOUGH THE SFC LOWS
THEMSELVES HAVE NO DIRECT EFFECT ON THE CWA, THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT LOOKS TO STALL NEAR THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WED NIGHT, AND
IS REACTIVATED AS A WARM FRONT AHEAD OF THE NEXT AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE EJECTING OUT OF THE ROCKIES, BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE
FOR PRECIP BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AND GENERALLY INCREASING FROM
THERE. CURRENTLY, THIS IS WHERE THE MODELS DISAGREE AND CONFIDENCE
LOWERS AS WHERE THE SYSTEM TRAVERSES WILL HAVE A DIRECT IMPACT ON
DOWNSTREAM PRECIPITATION. FOR THE CURRENT FORECAST, RAIN CHANCES
APPEAR TO BE HIGHER OVER THE MOUNTAINS, SO KEEPING POPS IN THE 50%
TO 70% RANGE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. AT THIS TIME, THE
PROBABILITY FOR AN INCH OR MORE OF RAIN IN A 24 HOUR PERIOD THIS
WEEKEND IS ABOUT A 20-30% ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL CHANGE BUT SO FAR,
DOESN'T LOOK TO BE A HIGHLY IMPACTFUL HYDRO EVENT. AFTER THE
POTENTIAL SYSTEM LIFTS TO THE NORTH, THE MODEL GUIDANCE DIVERGES ON
AGREEMENT OF THE NEXT BOUT OF RAIN OVER THE WEEKEND. CONFIDENCE THIS
FAR OUT IS TOO LOW FOR ANY DETAILS BUT ONCE THE RAIN MOVES OUT,
COLDER AND DRIER AIR LOOK TO BE USHERED IN. GUIDANCE DIPS
TEMPERATURES INTO THE NORMAL OR JUST BELOW NORMAL RANGE TO END THE
WEEKEND AND START THE NEW WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: VFR THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AT ALL TERMINALS,
THEN WE LOOK FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE REGION IN THE PRE-DAWN
HOURS GIVEN MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WIND. GUIDANCE DEVELOPS
FOG AROUND MOST TERMINALS RIGHT AROUND DAYBREAK BUT CONFIDENCE IS
AVERAGE AT THIS POINT, IF ONLY BECAUSE DEWPOINTS MIXED OUT ENOUGH
AROUND THE TIME OF PEAK HEATING TO SUGGEST THAT WE MIGHT NOT REACH
THE CROSSOVER TEMP THRESHOLD FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT. WILL INCLUDE A
MENTION OF FOG IN MOST PLACES FOR THE TIME BEING AS A PLACEHOLDER
AND THEN WILL MONITOR THE TRENDS FOR THE 06Z ISSUANCE. AFTER THE
FOG MIXES OUT, MORE CLEAR SKY ON TUESDAY, WITH A LIGHT S TO SW WIND.
OUTLOOK: NOCTURNAL FOG/STRATUS CAN'T BE RULED OUT NEAR DAYBREAK
WED OR THU. OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH MIDWEEK. RAIN MAY RETURN TO
THE AREA BY THURSDAY OR FRIDAY.
CLIMATE
RECORDS FOR 02-18
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 72 1897 15 1958 55 1891 0 1958
KCLT 78 2011 25 1979 62 1891 5 1958
1891
KGSP 78 2011 26 1979 55 1975 2 1958
RECORDS FOR 02-19
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 72 2014 16 2015 54 1951 3 2015
KCLT 76 2014 26 2015 55 1961 8 1958
1939
KGSP 75 2014 30 2015 55 1961 9 1958
1916 1900 1900
1911
RECORDS FOR 02-20
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 75 1939 26 1908 54 2018 4 2015
KCLT 77 2014 31 2015 59 1939 7 2015
1890
KGSP 75 2014 33 2015 57 1939 9 2015
1986
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
CP/JCW/PM
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