397
FXUS62 KGSP 031816
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
216 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED THE AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 18Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
1. ABOVE AVERAGE RAIN CHANCES AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: ABOVE AVERAGE RAIN CHANCES AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE CONTINUES TO SHOW THE MAIN NORTHERN STREAM
UPPER TROUGH LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST, WHILE A PIECE OF IT IS
LEFT OVER THE THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. AT THE SAME TIME, TWO
UPPER/MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONES WILL INTENSIFY WITH ONE REMAINING
PARKED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND THE OTHER OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE IDEA OF THE
LEFT OVER ENERGY DEVELOPING INTO A WEAK CLOSED UPPER/MID-LEVEL
LOW AND MEANDER OVER THE AREA THROUGH MID-WEEK. WITH THE ADDED
FORCING FOR ASCENT FROM THIS FEATURE AND ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWAT
VALUES (1.50"-2.00+"), EXPECT FOR AN ENHANCEMENT IN CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE EACH DAY THROUGHOUT THE WEEK, ESPECIALLY DURING THE
TYPICAL DIURNAL PERIOD. BY WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORKWEEK, A DIGGING LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH IS NOTED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS AND MAY ENGULF SOME OF THE LINGERING
ENERGY AS THE CLOSE UPPER/MID-LEVEL LOW BREAKS DOWN AND LIFTS
NORTH. HOWEVER, WEAK UPPER TROUGHINESS WILL STILL PLAY A VITAL ROLE
IN A SYNOPTIC PATTERN FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED HIGHER THAN NORMAL
DIURNAL POPS THROUGH THE END OF THE WORKWEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. EACH DAY WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION, ESPECIALLY TUESDAY THROUGH THE END
OF THE WORKWEEK. MULTIPLE DAYS OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY LEAD TO A FEW
INSTANCES OF LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING, ESPECIALLY IN LOCATIONS THAT
RECEIVE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL OR TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS
OVER A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. WITH HOW LOCALIZED THE HYDRO THREAT
IS EXPECTED TO BE AND LOWER CONFIDENCE ON EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL, DECIDED NOT TO ISSUE A FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME,
BUT CONDITIONS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED THROUGHOUT THE WEEK AS
THIS SET UP EVOLVES. CAN'T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO EACH AFTERNOON, WITH LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AS THE PRIMARY THREAT, BUT THE ENVIRONMENT IS NOT CONDUCIVE
FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION OR WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER THROUGHOUT THE
WEEK. ENHANCED POPS AND CLOUD COVER WILL ALLOW FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES
TO REMAIN BETWEEN NORMAL AND/OR A CATEGORY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: LOW-END SCT/BKN VFR CU WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING, MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS, BUT A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
CAN'T BE RULED OUT OVER KCLT AND KHKY. AS A RESULT, PLACED A PROB30
FOR SHRA/TSRA AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS FOR THIS AFTERNOON
FOR THESE TAF SITES. ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW STRATUS AND FOG ARE
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, BUT WILL BE MORE FOCUSED OVER THE NC
TERMINALS. PLACED A PREVAILING LINE MENTION FOR IFR/LIFR STRATUS AT
KCLT/KAVL/KHKY, WITH IFR/LIFR FOG POTENTIAL AT KAVL FOR MOUNTAIN
VALLEY DEVELOPMENT. CAN'T RULE OUT FOG AND POSSIBLY MVFR STRATUS
CREEPING INTO THE UPSTATE SITES, BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW FOR A TAF
MENTION AT THIS TIME. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWER AND STORMS IS LIKELY
LATE TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WHICH IS
EARLIER THAN THE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME TIMING. ALL TAF SITES HAVE A
PROB30 FOR SHRA/TSRA AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS AS THE ACTIVITY
BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THIS AFTERNOON,
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT, AND PICKING UP A EAST TO
NORTHEASTERLY COMPONENT FOR TUESDAY. KAVL WILL REMAIN VARIABLE
WITH A FEW INSTANCES OF AN UP-VALLEY COMPONENT.
OUTLOOK: DAILY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS, LINGER THROUGH AT LEAST MID TO LATE WEEK.
PATCHY FOG AND LOW STRATUS POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS EACH
MORNING, AND WHEREVER HEAVIER RAINFALL FELL THE PREVIOUS EVENING.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
CAC
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