929  
FXUS62 KGSP 130528  
AFDGSP  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC  
128 AM EDT SAT AUG 13 2022  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO THE REGION  
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. GRADUALLY INCREASING MOISTURE IS EXPECTED NEXT  
WEEK. OTHER THAN A BRIEF WARM-UP EARLY NEXT WEEK, TEMPERATURES ARE  
AND EXPECTED TO REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
 
 
AS OF 100 AM EDT SATURDAY: WHAT LITTLE CONVECTION HAD PREVIOUSLY  
LINGERED OVER THE FORECAST AREA HAS WRAPPED UP, SAVE FOR A SINGLE  
COMPACT SHOWER OVER SOUTHERN ABBEVILLE COUNTY. NOT MUCH MORE  
ACTIVITY IS LIKELY OVER THE UPSTATE AT THIS POINT, THOUGH A FEW  
LIGHTER SHOWERS MAY PERSIST ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE ESCARPMENT EMBEDDED  
IN EASTERLY FLOW RIDING UP THE TERRAIN. MID CLOUDS/HIGH-BASED  
STRATOCU CONTINUE TO EXPAND THERE AND POINTS EAST, BUT COOLER/DRIER  
AIR IS FILTERING IN FROM THE NORTH, WHICH SHOULD CONSTRICT THESE  
CLOUDS AND KEEP THEM CONFINED TO THE WESTERN UPSTATE AND SOUTHERN  
NC FOOTHILLS. IT SHOULD ALSO PROMOTE MIN TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW  
NORMAL, DESPITE THE CLOUDS. FOG IS UNLIKELY EXCEPT MAYBE IN THE  
NORMALLY MORE FOGGY LOCATIONS.  
 
EVEN THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES OUT ON SATURDAY AND COOLER AND  
DRIER HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY BUILDS MORE FULLY INTO THE AREA. THAT  
SAID, THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND WEAK INSTABILITY FOR  
ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE SMOKIES. HIGHS WILL BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES  
BELOW NORMAL WITH DEW POINTS DROPPING INTO THE 50S ACROSS MUCH OF  
THE AREA LEADING TO A REFRESHINGLY LOW HUMIDITY DAY.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
AS OF 235 PM EDT FRIDAY: THE SHORT-TERM FCST PICKS UP AT 00Z ON  
SUNDAY WITH EXTENSIVE UPPER RIDGING STILL DOMINATING THE WESTERN  
2/3 OF THE CONUS WHILE FAIRLY DEEP/BROAD UPPER TROFING REMAINS  
OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, THE  
TROF AXIS IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHEAST OF NEW ENGLAND, YET UPPER  
TROFING WILL REMAIN LARGELY IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THRU THE  
END OF THE PERIOD LATE MONDAY. AT THE SFC, THE CENTER OF BROAD  
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE TRANSLATING EASTWARD AND OVER THE ATLANTIC  
COAST AS THE PERIOD BEGINS. BY LATE SUNDAY, ANOTHER COLD FRONT  
WILL APPROACH OUR FCST AREA FROM THE NW AND BRING AN INCREASE IN  
MOISTURE WITH IT. THE FRONTAL BNDY IS NOT EXPECTED TO ACTUALLY  
MOVE THRU OUR CWA UNTIL LATE MONDAY AS THE PERIOD IS ENDING.  
AS FOR THE SENSIBLE FCST, BOTH POPS AND QPF HAVE BEEN INCREASED  
LATE SUNDAY THRU THE END OF THE PERIOD LATE MONDAY. HOWEVER, QPF  
IS STILL NOT EXPECTED TO BE EXCESSIVE AND SHOULD NOT CAUSE ANY  
SIGNIFICANT HYDRO ISSUES. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW NORMAL  
BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
AS OF 225 PM EDT FRIDAY: THE EXTENDED FCST PICKS UP AT 00Z  
ON TUESDAY WITH BROAD UPPER TROFING STILL IN PLACE OVER THE  
EASTERN CONUS AND EXTENSIVE RIDGING TO THE WEST. OVER THE NEXT  
24 TO 48 HRS, THE UPPER TROF IS EXPECTED TO MORPH INTO A LARGE,  
CLOSED UPPER LOW AND THEN EXPAND FURTHER WESTWARD. BY THE END  
OF THE PERIOD LATE NEXT WEEK, THE TROF IS EXPECTED TO COVER  
ROUGHLY THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. AT THE SFC, A WEAK COLD  
FRONT WILL BE MOVING EAST OF OUR CWA AS THE PERIOD BEGINS. IN  
THE FRONT'S WAKE, WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO SPREAD BACK INTO  
THE AREA FROM THE NORTH, HOWEVER THE LATEST LONG-RANGE GUIDANCE  
HAS IT MAKING LESS SOUTHWARD PROGRESS INTO OUR AREA. AT THE SAME  
TIME, THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS LOOKING MORE CHAOTIC/UNCERTAIN  
WITH THE OPERATIONAL MODELS TRYING TO DEVELOP MULTIPLE SFC LOWS  
OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND THEN MOVE THEM EASTWARD AND OFF THE SE  
COAST. OVERALL, THE PATTERN IS TRENDING MORE ACTIVE WITH THE  
ABOVE-MENTIONED HIGH NOT EXERTING AS MUCH INFLUENCE OVER OUR  
AREA WITH SOLID-CHANCE POPS EACH DAY THRU DAY 7. TEMPS ARE ALSO  
TRENDING COOLER THRU MOST OF THE PERIOD, WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO  
START OUT ABOUT A CATEGORY BELOW NORMAL ON TUES, AND REMAIN 1  
TO 2 CATEGORIES BELOW NORMAL THRU DAY 7.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: A QUEIT TAF PERIOD IS IN STORE FOR SATURDAY  
AS ENELY FLOW PROMOTES DRYING OVER MOST OF THE AREA. A FEW SHOWERS  
MAY CROP UP OVERNIGHT MAINLY NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE ESCARPMENT,  
BUT WITH LITTLE OPERATIONAL IMPACT AND LITTLE LIKELIHOOD OF  
AFFECTING ANY OF THE TAF SITES DIRECTLY. EXPECTING FEW/SCT VFR  
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AS STRATOCU DEVELOP IN THE ENELY FLOW, THOUGH  
INTERMITTENT MVFR CIGS ARE LIKELY IN AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS AS WELL,  
WITH GUIDANCE INCREASINGL FAVORING ONLY INTERMITTENT COVERAGE OF LOW  
CLOUDS. HAVE INCLUDED PREVAILING VFR WITH TEMPOS FOR MVFR THROUGH  
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, THEN FEW/SCT VFR-LEVEL CUMULUS ON SATURDAY.  
AT KAVL, WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE NIGHT, BEFORE  
VEERING AROUND TO THE SSE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.  
 
OUTLOOK: MOISTURE SLOW RETURNS SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
EXPECT DIURNAL CONVECTIVE CHANCES TO SLOWLY INCREASE AS WELL.  
FOG AND LOW STRATUS WILL DEVELOP EACH MORNING IN THE MOUNTAIN  
VALLEYS.  
 

 
   
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
GA...NONE.  
NC...NONE.  
SC...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...DEO  
NEAR TERM...ARK/MPR/RWH  
SHORT TERM...JPT  
LONG TERM...JPT  
AVIATION...MPR  
 
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