562
FXUS62 KGSP 011033
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
633 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED THE AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 12Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
1. HEAT RISK WILL STEADILY INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEK, WITH HEAT
INDICES LIKELY EXCEEDING 100 DEGREES ACROSS MUCH OF THE PIEDMONT
AND FOOTHILLS THROUGH THE INDEPENDENCE DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND. DAILY
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.
2. THE HEAT THREAT BEGINS TO WANE LATE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH A RETURN TO A MORE TRADITIONAL MID SUMMER PATTERN
FEATURING SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND DAILY STORM CHANCES.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: HEAT RISK WILL STEADILY INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEK,
WITH HEAT INDICES LIKELY EXCEEDING 100 DEGREES ACROSS MUCH OF
THE PIEDMONT AND FOOTHILLS THROUGH THE INDEPENDENCE DAY HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. DAILY THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS.
DEEP ANTICYCLONE AND ASSOCIATED UPPER RIDGE OVER THE MS AND TN
VALLEYS WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE EASTWARD THROUGH THE WORKWEEK
AND STRETCH OUT OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS TODAY AND
THURSDAY, WHILE REMAINING IN PLACE THROUGH LATE WEEK. ANOMALOUSLY
WARM THICKNESSES WILL SUPPORT PROLONGED HEAT FROM THROUGH THE
INDEPENDENCE DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND. EXPECT DAILY AFTERNOON HIGHS
TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S THIS AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY, WITH
UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 FRIDAY INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S.
THE ONE CAVEAT INTO THE FORECAST WILL BE HOW HIGH HEAT INDICES
CAN POTENTIALLY REACH AND WHETHER OR NOT MULTIPLE DAYS OF HEAT
ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED. WITH DRIER AIR ALOFT AND VERY WELL
MIXED BOUNDARY LAYERS (TOP :~700MB) ON THE HOTTEST DAYS DURING THE
FORECAST PERIOD, DEWPOINTS LIKELY MIX OUT INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S,
WITH SOME LOCATIONS GETTING INTO THE UPPER 50S AT PEAK HEATING EACH
DAY. DEWPOINTS PLAY A CRITICAL ROLE INTO HOW HIGH HEAT INDICES CAN
REACH AND THE CURRENT FORECAST SUGGESTS THAT VALUES WILL STRUGGLE
TO REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA, BUT CONDITIONS WILL STILL POSE AN
ELEVATED HEAT RISK, ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THAT MANY PEOPLE WILL
LIKELY BE OUTSIDE FOR THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THOSE WITH
OUTDOOR PLANS, INCLUDING HOLIDAY AND RECREATION, SHOULD PREPARE FOR
SEVERAL DAYS OF ELEVATED HEAT RISK. STAY HYDRATED, TAKE FREQUENT
BREAKS IN AIR-CONDITIONED OR SHADED AREAS, AND NEVER LEAVE CHILDREN
OR PETS UNATTENDED IN VEHICLES.
DAILY AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS STILL IN PLAY FOR THE MOUNTAINS
WHERE TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT WILL HELP TO INITIATE ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN AN OTHERWISE SUPPRESSED
ATMOSPHERE. ONLY VERY ISOLATED CONVECTION MAY SLIP EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS, BUT THE OVERALL EXPECTATION IS FOR THIS ACTIVITY TO
STAY MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS. CAN'T RULE OUT A COUPLE OF
STORMS EACH AFTERNOON BECOMING STRONG TO SEVERE, WHICH IS PRETTY
TYPICAL FOR EARLY JULY CONVECTION.
KEY MESSAGE 2: THE HEAT THREAT BEGINS TO WANE LATE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A RETURN TO A MORE TRADITIONAL MID SUMMER
PATTERN FEATURING SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND DAILY STORM CHANCES.
THE UPPER RIDGE THAT WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE PROLONGED HEAT
THIS WEEK WILL GRADUALLY BREAK DOWN AND SHIFT OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC BY LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN RESPONSE,
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S, WHICH IS AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY JULY. AS A RESULT, TRIPLE DIGIT
HEAT INDICES SHOULD BE HELD IN CHECK OUTSIDE OF THE SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN ZONES. DEEPENING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND HIGH
PLAINS WILL SEND WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DOWNSTREAM INTO THE
AREA WITH MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES, WHILE DEEP
MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE GULF AND ATLANTIC SETS THE STAGE FOR
MORE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH
DAY. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CAN'T BE RULED OUT EACH DAY
WITH LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND SMALL HAIL AS THE PRIMARY THREATS.
AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT MOST TAF
SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG/LOW STRATUS
WILL LINGER THROUGH DAYBREAK AND CURRENTLY IMPACTING KAVL WITH MVFR
VSBY AND LIFR CIG, SO KEPT THE TEMPO FOR THESE RESTRICTIONS THROUGH
13Z. ANY MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG/LOW STRATUS WILL DISSIPATE SHORTLY
AFTER SUNRISE. ANOTHER ROUND OF MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL KEEP THE PROB30 GOING AT KAVL FOR
TSRA AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS DURING PEAK HEATING, WHILE
REMAINING DRY WITH AFTERNOON CU AND SOME CONVECTIVE DEBRIS OUTSIDE
OF THE MOUNTAINS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH MOST OF
THE PERIOD, BUT WILL FAVOR A E/SE COMPONENT AT 4-8 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON. ANOTHER ROUND OF MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG/LOW STRATUS WILL BE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT AS WELL.
OUTLOOK: DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE WORKWEEK. MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG/LOW
STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH MORNING.
CLIMATE
RECORDS FOR 07-02
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 93 1970 65 1943 70 2018 44 1988
1954
1931
KCLT 101 1931 64 1943 76 1991 56 2008
1970
1931
KGSP 101 1954 66 1943 77 1931 53 1899
RECORDS FOR 07-03
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 93 1970 65 1988 70 2018 50 2008
1897 1931 1937
1932
KCLT 99 1931 70 1988 76 1925 56 2010
KGSP 99 2016 70 1988 77 1925 56 1984
1970
1953
RECORDS FOR 07-04
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 97 1948 68 1976 70 2016 51 1986
KCLT 99 1993 70 1968 76 1993 55 1933
1955
KGSP 100 1993 70 1988 75 2018 58 2021
1996
1933
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
CAC
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