084
FXUS62 KGSP 081802
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
202 PM EDT MON JUN 8 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP IN THE WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA. OTHERWISE, GENERAL FORECAST REMAINS ON
TRACK. AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
1. MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EXPECTED THROUGH
THE THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
EXPECTED THROUGH THE THE WEEK.
A SHARP TROUGH MOVING EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY
CONTINUES TO KNOCK DOWN THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THAT'S OVER THE
AREA TODAY. AT THE SURFACE, A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT DROPS SOUTH
TOWARD THE AREA TODAY, THEN STALLS OVER THE AREA ON TUESDAY. THE
FRONT THEN WASHES OUT ON WEDNESDAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE NEAR
OR TO OUR EAST. THESE FEATURES KEEP A MOIST AND UNSTABLE
AIRMASS OVER THE AREA, LEADING TO MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH
DAY. HIGH PW VALUES AND SLOW MOVING STORMS COULD LEAD TO SOME
HEAVY RAINFALL. THE THREAT OF FLOODING IS LOW, BUT MINOR
FLOODING COULD DEVELOP IF TRAINING CELLS DEVELOP OR HIGH RAIN
RATES LINGER OVER ONE AREA. THE THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS LOOKS
MINIMAL AT BEST WITH WEAK INSTABILITY AND LAPSE RATES. WITH
THE CLOUD COVER AND AN EARLIER START TO CONVECTION, TEMPS ARE
COOLER THAN AVERAGE, GENERALLY RUNNING IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW
80S. WITH MORE SUN AND A LATER START TO CONVECTION, TEMPS NEAR
THE I-77 CORRIDOR HAVE REACHED THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 AT THE
TIME OF THIS DISCUSSION. TEMPS COULD STILL RISE ANOTHER COUPLE
OF DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA, BUT WE ARE NEAR THE
EXPECTED HIGHS FOR THE DAY. HIGHS TOMORROW ARE EXPECTED TO BE
BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH LOW CLOUDS AND A
COOLER AIRMASS. HIGHS WEDNESDAY RISE BACK TO AROUND NORMAL.
WEAK RIDGING RETURNS THURSDAY BEFORE A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES BRING
MORE ZONAL FLOW TO THE AREA. THE MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS REMAINS
OVER THE AREA WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER OR NEAR THE AREA AND NO
SIGNIFICANT FRONTAL SYSTEMS. THIS LEADS TO CONTINUED CHANCES OF
MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY. HIGHS RISE TO AROUND 90 FOR MANY
LOCATIONS OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. MUGGY
DEWPOINTS COULD LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAT INDEX VALUES NEAR
100, MAINLY SOUTH OF THE I-85 CORRIDOR FOR THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: VFR CONDITIONS ARE BEING NOTED ACROSS THE
AREA AT THE START OF THE TAF PERIOD. SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP IN THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. HAVE KEPT THE PROB30 FOR TSRA AT ALL TERMINALS, WITH
VARYING TIMES SOME BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE. THERE IS SOME
QUESTION IF CLT WILL SEE ANY ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING,
BUT WITH THE AIRMASS AS IT IS, A SHOWER OR STORM COULD POP UP
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION DIMISHES
AFTER THE 00Z-03Z TIMEFRAME. CEILINGS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO DROP
TO MVFR OR IFR AT ALL TERMINALS WITH CLT LIKELY GOING TO IFR.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS/STORMS ARE EXPECTED AFTER ABOUT
10Z-15Z, DEPENDING ON THE TERMINAL WITH CEILINGS GRADUALLY
IMPROVING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTH
INTO THIS EVENING, AND AGAIN AFTER SUNRISE, BUT REMAIN
RELATIVELY LIGHT IN THE 5-8 KT RANGE.
OUTLOOK: AN ACTIVE PERIOD IS EXPECTED, WITH AT LEAST SCATTERED,
MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG/LOW STRATUS RESTRICTIONS CONTINUING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
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