188
FXUS62 KGSP 291818
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
218 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE AVIATION DISCUSSION WAS UPDATED FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE.
CORRECTED KEY MESSAGE 2.
KEY MESSAGES
1. A COOL AND DRY AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER OUR AREA TODAY. DRY
VEGETATION AND LOW RH VALUES WILL KEEP ELEVATED FIRE CONDITIONS
IN PLACE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
2. WARM TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND WITH
AFTERNOON SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASING.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: A COOL AND DRY AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER OUR AREA
TODAY. DRY VEGETATION AND LOW RH VALUES WILL KEEP ELEVATED FIRE
CONDITIONS IN PLACE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
FLOW ALOFT REMAINS RATHER QUASI-ZONAL TODAY INTO MONDAY, WHILE A
STRONG SURFACE HIGH REMAINS PARKED NEAR THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST THIS
AFTERNOON. LINGERING COOL AND DRY AIRMASS WITH DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER
MIXING HAS ALLOWED FOR DEWPOINTS TO TANK, LEADING TO RH VALUES
PLUMMETING TO 25% OR BELOW FOR MOST LOCATIONS, ESPECIALLY ALONG
AND NORTH OF I-85. FACTOR IN VERY DRY VEGETATION, THIS HAS ALLOWED
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TO REMAIN ELEVATED AND THUS, A FIRE DANGER
STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND
NORTHEAST GEORGIA THROUGH 8 PM THIS EVENING IN COORDINATION WITH
STATE FORESTRY COMMISSIONS AND NEIGHBORING WFOS. AS THE SURFACE
HIGH CONTINUES TO SLIP FURTHER OFFSHORE LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT,
THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE OUT OF THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. IN THE
RETURN FLOW, DEWPOINTS WILL RISE AS BETTER MOISTURE RETURNS ACROSS
THE AREA. A WEAK SUBSIDENCE INVERSION DEVELOPS IN THIS REGIME AND
ALLOWS FOR LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO BECOME TRAPPED UNDERNEATH. AS
A RESULT, STRATOCU IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER THIS EVENING,
THROUGH TONIGHT, AND DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
REBOUND SIGNIFICANTLY COMPARED TO SATURDAY NIGHT AS MOST LOCATIONS
RISE INTO THE MID AND UPPER 40S WITH LOW 50S POSSIBLE CLOSER TO THE
UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY. WITH CONTINUED SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ON MONDAY, LOW-LEVEL WAA WILL BE ONGOING AND HELP DEWPOINTS
RETURN INTO THE 40S AND 50S. THIS WILL ELIMINATE FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS FOR MOST OF THE AREA, BUT AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RISE AS
WELL WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME LOCATIONS, MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF
I-77 TO SEE RH VALUES DIP BELOW 40%. MAY NEED ANOTHER FIRE DANGER
STATEMENTS FOR SOME OF THESE COUNTIES, BUT WILL BE ISSUED ONCE THE
FIRE DANGER STATEMENT FOR TODAY EXPIRES IF NEEDED. MONDAY WILL BE
THE START OF A WARMER TREND AS A AFTERNOON HIGHS REACH THE LOW TO
MID 70S (60S FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS). CAN'T RULE OUT A SPOTTY
SHOWER DURING THE AFTERNOON IN THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA,
BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW FOR A MENTIONABLE POP AT THIS TIME.
KEY MESSAGE 2: WARM TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND
WITH AFTERNOON SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASING.
WE SEEM TO SLIP EASILY INTO A LATE SPRING PATTERN EARLY IN THE
WEEK AND THE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT IT WILL PERSIST THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND, DEPENDING ON THE EVENTUAL EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF A
PROGRESSIVE NRN STREAM TROF AND COLD FRONT MAYBE NEXT SUNDAY. THE
UPPER FLOW STARTS OUT RELATIVELY FLAT ON TUESDAY BUT GRADUALLY
AMPLIFIES WITH A RIDGE OFF THE EAST COAST AND A TROF COMING
OFF THE ROCKIES BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THE EAST COAST RIDGE
WILL SUPPORT SFC HIGH PRESSURE OUT AROUND BERMUDA, WHICH WILL
PROMOTE A GENERAL SW FLOW AT LOW LEVELS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
THAT SHOULD BRING THE DEWPOINT UP INTO THE 50S AND LOWER 60S,
WHICH MEANS THAT AFTERNOON RH WILL NOT BE CRITICALLY LOW LIKE IT
HAS BEEN OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. MEANWHILE, TEMPS WILL BE ON
THE ORDER OF 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, WITH HIGHS AND LOWS
CLOSE TO WHAT WOULD BE NORMAL FOR MID- TO LATE-MAY. THE OTHER END
RESULT WILL BE AN ENVIRONMENT THAT WILL SUPPORT DIURNAL SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EACH DAY, THUS THE PRECIP CHANCES INCLUDED
IN THE FORECAST. NOTE THAT THE NBM LOOKS A BIT ENTHUSIASTIC ON THE
PRECIP PROBS EACH AFTERNOON MID TO LATE WEEK, GIVEN OUR ONGOING
DROUGHT, SO ONE MIGHT WANT TO MANAGE THEIR EXPECTATIONS FOR GETTING
MUCH IN THE WAY OF MUCH-NEEDED RAIN. BUT...AT LEAST WE'RE SAYING
THERE'S A CHANCE. AS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES, RIGHT NOW
WEDNESDAY HAS THE BEST POTENTIAL, WITH THE NBM SHOWING A 40-60
PERCENT PROB OF SFC-BASED CAPE EXCEEDING 1000 J/KG BUT ALL OTHER
DAYS HAVING MUCH LESS POTENTIAL FOR DECENT BUOYANCY. WE SHALL SEE
WHAT SUNDAY HOLDS FOR US WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A PROGRESSIVE COLD
FRONT ADDING SOME FORCING/ORGANIZATION POTENTIAL.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH MOSTLY VFR. GUIDANCE INCREASES CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT AND CIGS
WILL HOVER NEAR MVFR AROUND DAYBREAK MONDAY AND COULD POTENTIALLY
LINGER THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE CLOUD COVER
SCATTERS, MAINLY ACROSS THE UPSTATE SITES WHERE MVFR RESTRICTIONS
WOULD MOST LIKELY DEVELOP. WINDS ARE PICKING UP OUT OF THE EAST
TO SOUTHEAST AND SHOULD FAVOR A SOUTHERLY TRAJECTORY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME LOW-END GUSTS CAN'T BE RULED OUT
THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY AT KAVL. LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED TONIGHT,
WHILE CONTINUING TO TOGGLE AT A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION. SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AT 5-10 KTS, WITH LOW-END
GUSTS POSSIBLE.
OUTLOOK: DRY, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY, LEADING TO ELEVATED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITH ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...INCREASED FIRE DANGER UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GAZ010-
017-018-026-028-029.
NC...INCREASED FIRE DANGER UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ033-
035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-068>072-082-501>510.
SC...INCREASED FIRE DANGER UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
SCZ008>014-019-101>109.
CAC/PM
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