734
FXUS62 KILM 251438
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1038 AM EDT SAT JUL 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
RIP CURRENT RISK IS NOW LOW FOR ALL AREA BEACHES WITH MID-
MORNING SRF UPDATE BASED ON RECENT LIFEGUARD REPORTS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) STATIONARY FRONT ALONG THE COAST WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
SEVERAL MORE IMPULSES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY AND INTO
THIS EVENING. ISOLATED FLOODING REMAINS POSSIBLE.
- 2) FORECAST STARTS TO DRY OUT SUNDAY AS THE FRONT FINALLY
MOVES OFFSHORE. DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES POSSIBLE MONDAY AND TUESDAY, WITH THE NEXT FRONT DUE
BY MIDWEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
STATIONARY FRONT ALONG THE COAST WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING SEVERAL MORE IMPULSES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY AND INTO
THIS EVENING. ISOLATED FLOODING REMAINS POSSIBLE.
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
BASICALLY BISECTING THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA FROM THE PEE DEE REGION
TO THE CAPE FEAR REGION. MESOANALYSIS SHOWS PRECIPITABLE WATER
(PWAT) VALUES HOLDING AT 2.3-2.4" ACROSS THE AREA, INDICATING A
TROPICAL AIRMASS IS IN PLACE.
SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE FIZZLED AWAY OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS,
GIVING WAY TO A LULL THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS, 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN HAVE
FALLEN ACROSS THE AREA, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 3-4 INCHES IN
SOME ISOLATED SPOTS ALONG THE COASTLINE. INDEED, THE DROUGHT HAS
BEEN WINNING IN THIS FIGHT SO FAR AGAINST THE ISOLATED FLOODING
THREAT. EVEN FOR THE 2-4 INCHES THAT FELL ACROSS THE WILMINGTON
AREA, SEVERAL OF OUR STAFF HAVE COMMENTED HOW THERE IS LITTLE
PONDING ON THE ROADS, AN INDICATION THAT SOILS ARE SOAKING UP THIS
WATER. WELCOMED NEWS!
CONVECTION WILL GRADUALLY START TO FIRE UP AGAIN TOWARDS THE LATE
MORNING HOURS, AS THE FRONT SLOWLY SNAKES TOWARDS THE COAST AGAIN.
WE SHOULD SEE A SIMILAR PATTERN TO YESTERDAY, WHERE THE FRONT
INTERACTS WITH THE SEABREEZE TO CREATE A HEALTHY CONVERGENCE
BOUNDARY FOR STORMS TO FIRE ALONG THE COASTLINE BY 12-2 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON. SHORTWAVE IMPULSES ALOFT WILL HELP TO SUSTAIN THIS
CONVECTION, ALONG WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES OF THE STORMS THEMSELVES.
HEADING TOWARDS THIS EVENING, STORMS MAY START TO FAVOR THE
NORTHEAST SC COAST, BEFORE RAIN CHANCES GRADUALLY START TO COME DOWN
AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ALL OF
SOUTHEAST NC AND MOST OF NORTHEAST SC, SANS DARLINGTON AND MARLBORO
COUNTIES. THE LAST 24 HOURS HAVE SET PRECEDENCE THAT FLOODING WILL
BE HARD TO ACHIEVE IN THIS DROUGHT, BUT IT'S STILL SOMETHING THAT WE
CANNOT RULE OUT WITH MORE RAIN ON THE WAY TODAY. MOST SHOULD SEE AN
ADDITIONAL 1-2 INCHES TODAY, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 2-4
INCHES POSSIBLE.
KEY MESSAGE 2
FORECAST STARTS TO DRY OUT SUNDAY AS THE FRONT
FINALLY MOVES OFFSHORE. DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES POSSIBLE MONDAY AND TUESDAY, WITH THE NEXT FRONT DUE BY
MIDWEEK.
THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY FINALLY STARTS TO PUSH OUT INTO THE
ATLANTIC LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. AS A RESULT, RAIN CHANCES
GRADUALLY START TO COME DOWN. MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
IN THE AFTERNOON, RESEMBLING A MORE SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN. MORE
ORGANIZED RAIN CHANCES MAY COME BY WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.
TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT INDICES ALSO RETURN AS EARLY AS MONDAY, THOUGH
IT LOOKS MORE LIKELY ON TUESDAY.
AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
GRADUAL INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY THE LAST HOUR OR SO,
ESPECIALLY TO THE WEST WHICH WILL TRANSLATE EAST WITH
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT NOT FAR BEHIND. IFR FOG/STRATUS
LINGERING OVER KLBT, BUT HAS STRUGGLED TO REACH KFLO AND MAY
END UP FALLING SHORT OF KFLO. IF IT GETS THERE IS NOT LIKELY TO
HANG AROUND LONG BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO MVFR. PREVAILING
CONDITION TODAY WILL BE MVFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR SPRINKLED IN AS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS START TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE. CONTINUED
USE OF PROB30 GROUPS TO ACCOUNT FOR PASSING SHOWERS IN THE LATE
MORNING HOURS. HIGH RES MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT KILM,
KCRE, AND KMYR WILL EXPERIENCE THE BRUNT OF THE CONVECTION
GENERALLY FROM 16-21Z THIS AFTERNOON (USED TEMPO GROUPS FOR THAT
PART). WHILE KFLO AND KLBT SHOULDN'T GET AS MUCH CONVECTION
COVERAGE, THEY MAY OBSERVE THE IFR STRATUS, BEING THEY WILL BE
ON THE "COOL" SIDE OF THE FRONT AS IT SLOWLY SNAKES TO THE SOUTH
AND EAST. WINDS GENERALLY NE-NW AROUND 5 KT OR LESS ACROSS THE
INLAND TERMINALS. AND FOR THE COASTAL TERMINALS S-NW 4 TO 9 KT.
DRIER AIR WILL START TO FILTER IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT,
BUT THE ABUNDANCE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT TO CALM
WINDS/MINIMAL MIXING SUGGEST WIDESPREAD IFR FOG/STRATUS WILL BE
A CONCERN AT ALL TERMINALS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
EXTENDED FORECAST...COULD SEE SOME FOG RESTRICTIONS SUNDAY
MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THEREAFTER WITH PERIODIC
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS FROM DIURNAL CONVECTION MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
MARINE
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT AND MULTIPLE
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CREATE HAVOC WITH WIND
DIRECTION/SPEED TODAY AND THIS EVENING. A LULL IN THE ACTIVITY OVER
THE WATERS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD BY THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. OVERALL, OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTION, EXPECT SEAS TO BE 3
FT OR LESS THROUGH TUESDAY, INCREASING TO 3-5 FT BY WEDNESDAY. SWLY
WINDS WILL PREVAIL SOUTH OF THE FRONT AND AWAY FROM ANY STORMS
THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE FLOW WILL VEER AROUND TO A NLY DIRECTION
LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH THE OLD FRONT FINALLY SOUTH OF THE
AREA. TYPICAL SWLY FLOW WILL RETURN TO THE WATERS MONDAY AND PERSIST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ087-096-099-
105>110.
SC...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ024-032-033-039-
054>056-058-059.
MARINE...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...VAO
KEY MESSAGES...IGB
DISCUSSION...IGB
AVIATION...III/IGB
MARINE...IGB
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