826
FXUS62 KILM 191025
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
525 AM EST THU FEB 19 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION DISCUSSION HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR 12Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE INLAND FRIDAY BEFORE LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN ARRIVES FOR THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW
NORMAL FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK, BUT NO IMPACTFUL WEATHER IS
EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE INLAND FRIDAY
BEFORE LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN ARRIVES FOR THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES
WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK, BUT NO IMPACTFUL
WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
RIDING ALOFT AND STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH FRI. RECORD HIGHS ARE
POSSIBLE FRI AFTERNOON (SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR DETAILS)
DEPENDING ON CLOUDS AND COVERAGE OF ANY SHOWERS.
A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA SAT AND STALLS BEFORE LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS AND MOVES OFFSHORE EARLY SUN, TAKING THE FRONT WITH IT.
LIMITED FORCING AND WEAK DYNAMICS WILL KEEP RAINFALL TOTALS AROUND
0.50" ACROSS THE AREA.
CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE EXITING LOW FOR THE START
OF NEXT WEEK, LEADING TO TEMPERATURES AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH WED.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD. CLOUDS WILL BE ~5-7KFT
WITH SOME LOWER CU POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON BORDERING MVFR. SW
WINDS WILL GUST ~20 KTS DURING THE DAY. THERE IS THE THREAT OF
SEA FOG FOR COASTAL TERMINALS TODAY BUT LOW CONFIDENCE ON
IMPACTS UNTIL THIS EVENING. NOT SEEING ANY EVIDENCE OF ANYTHING
OUT THERE AT THE MOMENT AND HARD TO SEE ANYTHING UNDER THE
CLOUDS, BUT THIS SITUATION MAY NEED UPDATING BEFORE THE NEXT SET
OF TAFS. TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD MORE SOLID CIG
RESTRICTIONS PAIRED WITH SHOWERS MAY START TO BUILD INTO THE
AREA FOR ALL TERMINALS.
EXTENDED FORECAST...FLIGHT RESTRICTION CHANCES WILL INCREASE FRIDAY
LINGERING THROUGH THE WEEKEND DUE TO A STALLED FRONT AND PASSING LOW
PRESSURE. CIGS AND VSBYS WILL BE DIMINISHED WITH THE THREAT OF FOG
AND LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL. VFR SHOULD RETURN FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT...
INCREASING SW WINDS AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM, WITH SPEEDS
BECOMING 15-20 KTS BY THE EVENING. SEAS WILL RESPOND SLOWER AT
3-4 FT WITH AN INCREASING SSW WIND WAVE AND A 1-3 FT LONG PERIOD
SWELL FROM THE ENE.
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
ENHANCED SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES ON FRI WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFF
THE COAST. STILL POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF, MARGINAL SCA FRI
AFTERNOON, BUT THIS WILL DEPEND MORE INLAND WARMING PINCHING THE
GRADIENT VS MIXING OF STRONG WINDS TO THE SURFACE. COOLER SSTS
UNDER WARM ADVECTION (WHICH IS ALSO LIKELY TO PRODUCE SEA FOG
INTO THE WEEKEND) WILL HAMPER MIXING OF STRONG WINDS ALOFT.
BETTER POTENTIAL FOR SCA CONDITIONS LATER SUN INTO MON EVENING
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A DEVELOPING LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT. STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN AND THE
LOW DEEPENS OFFSHORE WILL ALSO PRODUCE SEAS IN EXCESS OF 6 FT IN
SOME AREAS.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGHS FOR 2/20/2026...
WILMINGTON NC - KILM (81 LAST SET IN 1991)
LUMBERTON NC - KLBT (80 LAST SET IN 2018)
N. MYRTLE BEACH SC - KCRE (77 LAST SET IN 1949)
FLORENCE SC - KFLO (83 LAST SET IN 2014)
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...
KEY MESSAGES...III
DISCUSSION...III
AVIATION...LEW
MARINE...III/LEW
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