168
FXUS62 KILM 010130
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
930 PM EDT SAT MAY 31 2025
SYNOPSIS
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY PRODUCE A PASSING SHOWER THIS
EVENING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN AREAS. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN
FROM THE NORTH THROUGH SUNDAY PRODUCING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FROM LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM BACK ABOVE
NORMAL BY MIDWEEK WITH THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN LATE IN THE
WEEK.
UPDATE
FORECAST UPDATED TO ADJUST POPS THROUGH MIDNIGHT BASED ON
LATEST RADAR TRENDS...MAINLY TO INCREASE TO LIKELY POPS OVER FAR
NORTHERN BLADEN AND PENDER COUNTIES WHERE CONVECTION IS NOW
APPROACHING. OTHERWISE, NO LARGE CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
MID TO UPPER TROUGH MOVING EVER SO SLOWLY EASTWARD AS IT
CONTINUES TO EXTEND DOWN OVER THE CAROLINAS. THE TROUGH BECOMES
BROADER AS IMPULSES DROP DOWN ALONG THE BASE OF THE TROUGH.
THIS COMBINED WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT DROPPING DOWN FROM THE
NORTH WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THIS EVENING AND
THEN AGAIN LATER ON SUNDAY. THE SOUNDINGS SHOW MOISTURE IN A
LAYER FROM 6K TO 11KT FT BELOW SUBSIDENCE INVERSION THIS EVENING
WITH MAINLY SOME CLOUDS EXPECTED, BUT WITH IMPULSE ALOFT, MAY
SEE ENOUGH TO SQUEEZE OUT A SHOWER OVER MAINLY NORTHERN TIER,
BUT OVERALL BETTER CHANCES WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA WHERE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER TO SEVERE STORMS WILL EXIST.
THIS DIFFUSE COLD FRONT WILL BE DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY
WITH RELATIVELY COOLER AIR PUSHING IN FROM THE NORTH. AS
ANOTHER IMPULSE ROTATES AROUND THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
CAROLINAS LATE SUN AFTN, IT WILL GIVE ADDED SUPPORT FROM ALOFT
AND WILL COMBINE WITH THIS BOUNDARY AND PEAK HEATING TO PRODUCE
ANOTHER OPPORTUNITY FOR SHWRS/TSTMS. COULD EVEN SEE SOME HAIL OR
GUSTY WINDS WITH AN ISOLATED STRONGER STORM POSSIBLY. OVERALL,
EXPECT SOME CLOUDS MIXING WITH THE SUNSHINE ON SUN WITH BETTER
CHC OF RAIN LATE DAY AFTER SUBSIDENCE INVERSION BREAKS. GUSTY
WINDS TODAY WILL DIMINISH AND VEER AROUND TO THE NORTH BEHIND
COLD FRONT AND THEN TO THE E-SE INTO SUN AFTN AS BOUNDARY
REMAINS IN THE VICINITY. TEMPS TONIGHT WILL DROP CLOSE TO 60
MOST PLACES IN DRIER AIR MASS TONIGHT AND WILL WARM INTO THE MID
80S SOUTH AND CLOSER TO 80 OVER NORTHERN TIER WHERE BETTER CHC
OF CLOUDS SHOULD BE.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
INITIALLY A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE OVERALL
PARENT TROUGH. THE SYSTEM HAS A DECENT EAST TO WEST ORIENTATION
AS IT PUSHES OFFSHORE SO POPS ARE IN PLACE FOR MOST OF THE
OVERNIGHT TIMEFRAME INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE REMAINDER OF THE
SHORT TERM...THROUGH TUESDAY...PERIOD IS DRY WITH WARMING
TEMPERATURES.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
THE EXTENDED FORECAST STARTS OFF DRY BUT GETS MORE UNSETTLED IN
TIME. IT APPEARS THE FIRST ROUND OF LOWER POPS ARRIVING
THURSDAY AND MORE COASTAL ORIENTED IS ASSOCIATED WITH A MID
LEVEL SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE ATLANTIC ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.
ITS WORTH NOTING THERE REMAINS A LOT OF SPREAD IN THIS
GUIDANCE/FORECAST. BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND A MORE TRADITIONAL CONTINENTAL SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE
WEST WARRANTS LOWER CHANCE POPS AND MORE WIDESPREAD.
TEMPERATURES INCREASE EARLY ON TO AROUND FIVE DEGREES ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGY BUT INCREASING POPS/MOISTURE SEEM TO CAP VALUES
RIGHT THERE.
AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONTINUING THOUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY
SUNDAY. A FRONT DROPS INTO THE AREA TONIGHT, BUT ANY PRECIP IS
EXPECTED TO STAY NORTH OF THE TAF SITES. NO FOG ANTICIPATED
TONIGHT DUE TO LOW DEWPOINTS, AND CLOUD DECKS SHOULD STAY IN THE
6-10K FT RANGE AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE. ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTN/EVENING,
WITH CHANCES TOO LOW TO WARRANT MENTION IN THE TAFS ATTM. BRIEF
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY STORMS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR AND DRY.
MARINE
THROUGH SUNDAY...GUSTY WESTERLY OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DIMINISH AND
VEER TO THE NORTH BEFORE DAYBREAK ON SUN AND THEN BECOME MORE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS A COLD FRONT DROPS DOWN FROM THE NORTH
INTO SUN AND THEN MOVES BACK NORTH LATE SUN. SEAS UP TO 3 TO 5
FT TONIGHT WILL DROP OFF THROUGH SUNDAY DOWN TO 2 TO 3 FT BY
LATE DAY. A MINIMAL SW SWELL WILL MIX IN.
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE SUNDAY NIGHT BUT FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS A NORTHERLY
COMPONENT WILL BE IN PLACE FOLLOWED BY A RETURN FLOW LATE IN THE
PERIOD. WIND SPEEDS DON'T APPEAR TO RISE MUCH ABOVE TEN KNOTS
AT THE MOST SO NO HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED. OVERALL SIGNIFICANT
SEAS WILL BE 2-3 FEET.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...MAS
NEAR TERM...RGZ
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...MAS
MARINE...SHK/RGZ
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