985
FXUS62 KILM 012323
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
623 PM EST THU JAN 1 2026
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION UNTIL A WEEKEND
STORM SYSTEM BRINGS RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. WARMING
TREND AND RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED HEADING INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS.
UPDATE
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 00Z TAFS BELOW.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
*KEY MESSAGES/HIGHLIGHTS*
*HAZARDS: NONE
*RAIN CHANCES: NONE
*TEMPS: NEAR NORMAL TONIGHT; ABOVE NORMAL FRI
*CONFIDENCE: HIGH
DETAILS: LOW-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE SOUTH WILL MAINTAIN
THE DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS SE NC & NE SC THROUGH FRIDAY. WEAK LOW
PRESSURE INLAND TODAY WILL LIFT FARTHER NORTH TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
ALLOWING A WARMER AIR MASS TO MOVE IN. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
TONIGHT WITH MORE MID/HIGH CLOUDS FRI AS MID-LEVEL FORCING INCREASES
IN THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. HOWEVER, STILL TOO DRY IN THE LOW LEVELS
FOR ANY RAIN. MOST LOCALES SHOULD SEE MID TO UPPER 30S FOR LOWS
TONIGHT AWAY FROM THE MILDER COASTAL AREAS AND THEN LOWER TO MID 60S
FRI.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
WARMER SW TO W FLOW FRI EVENING WILL SHIFT AROUND TO A MORE
NORTHERLY DIRECTION AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
FROM WEST TO EAST. SHOULD SEE SOME RAIN POTENTIAL INCREASE
THROUGH SATURDAY THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. LIFT SHOULD INCREASE
LATER IN THE DAY AS SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH PROVIDING BETTER
SUPPORT ALOFT. MAY SEE UPWARDS OF AN INCH OF RAIN ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE AREA AND COULD SEE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER ALONG AND
JUST OFF THE COAST BUT INSTABILITY REMAINS ELEVATED. TEMPS ALONG
THE COAST MAY REACH NEAR 60, BUT ELSEWHERE WILL REMAIN IN 50S
FOR HIGHS. SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK OFF THE COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT
WITH RAIN TAPERING OFF AS DRIER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
UPPER MIDWEST INTO SUNDAY.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
LINGERING CLOUDS EARLY SUNDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. CAA WILL
LIMIT TEMPS TO THE 50S FOR HIGHS ON SUN AND SUN NIGHT SHOULD BE
THE COLDEST NIGHT OF WEEK WITH TEMPS DOWN WITHIN A FEW DEGREES
OF FREEZING FOR LOWS MOST PLACES.
THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST ON MON WITH WEAK
RIDGING OR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT THROUGH MIDWEEK. SOUTHERLY FLOW
AROUND THE HIGH WILL PRODUCE WARMING THROUGH MIDWEEK. EXPECT
TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL MON THROUGH AT LEAST WED. A HINT OF A
COASTAL TROUGH MAY INCREASE RAIN CHANCES OVER THE WATERS, BUT
OVERALL, EXPECT DRY AND SUNNY WEATHER UNTIL A COLD FRONT DROPS
SOUTH BY THURS.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONTINUES THROUGH THE 00Z TAF PERIOD.
THE MAIN CONCERN IS FOR LLWS JUST SHY OF THE 30 KT CRITERIA
BETWEEN ABOUT 08-14Z AT KFLO AND KLBT AS ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL
FLOW OVERSPREADS THE AREA. SURFACE WINDS AROUND 5 KTS PRIOR TO
SUNRISE WILL PRECLUDE TRULY REACHING CRITERIA, BUT GUIDANCE
TOOLS SUGGESTS WINDS BETWEEN 1000-2000 FT SHOULD REACH AROUND
30 KTS LATE TONIGHT, WHICH COULD BE HAZARDOUS FOR VULNERABLE
AIRCRAFT. OTHERWISE, DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD SUPPORT MIXING DOWN
SOME GUSTS AROUND 15-20 KTS, ALTHOUGH THICKENING HIGH CLOUDS AND
A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL LIMIT HOW MUCH VERTICAL MIXING CAN
TAKE PLACE, AND THUS, HOW FAST THOSE GUSTS CAN BECOME.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR THROUGH MOST OR ALL OF FRIDAY NIGHT, THEN
BECOMING MVFR TO IFR IN RAIN THROUGH SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT AS A STORM SYSTEM IMPACTS THE AREA. VFR SHOULD RETURN ON
SUNDAY AS THE SYSTEM DEPARTS AND MOISTURE IS SCOURED OUT, WITH
VFR PREVAILING THEREAFTER.
MARINE
THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE THIS PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN TO THE SOUTH WHILE WEAK LOW PRESSURE INLAND SHIFTS FARTHER TO
THE NORTH TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN
SLIGHTLY ELEVATED BUT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS, ESPECIALLY SEAS.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
OFFSHORE WESTERLY FLOW MAY BECOME MORE SW AHEAD OF A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST FRI NIGHT
THROUGH SAT. THE LOW MAY CAUSE SOME VARIATION IN THE WINDS SAT
BEFORE TURNING N SAT NIGHT AS LOW TRACKS OFF INTO THE ATLANTIC.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE ON SAT WITH GUSTS TO 20 TO 25 KTS
LATE SAT INTO SAT NIGHT. SEAS AROUND 2 TO 3 FT WILL INCREASE UP
TO 3 TO 5 FT ON SAT AND MAY REACH INTO SCA THRESHOLDS IN THE
OUTER WATERS LATE SAT INTO SUN AS WINDS VEER FROM W-SW TO N. BY
SUN NIGHT WINDS WILL BE AROUND TO THE NE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE NW. ONCE THE HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE COAST ON MON,
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BEGIN TO VEER AROUND TO THE EAST. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH TO 15 KTS OR LESS BY LATE SUN AND WILL DECREASE
FURTHER THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH IMPROVING MARINE
CONDITIONS.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...ABW
NEAR TERM...RJB
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...ABW
MARINE...RJB/RGZ
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