963
FXUS62 KILM 150435
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1235 AM EDT TUE SEP 15 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 06Z TAFS.
PREVIOUS UPDATE...
A MOSTLY DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT, AND
MAY SEE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/T-STORMS THIS
EVENING, MAINLY ACROSS THE CAPE FEAR AREA AND ADJACENT WATERS.
THERE'S NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE FOR THE FRONT TO WORK
WITH LIMITING COVERAGE. THUS, NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE WITH
THE AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE. DID REMOVE INITIAL KEY MESSAGE
REGARDING TODAY'S UNSEASONABLE HEAT TO FOCUS ON THE FRONT AND
UPCOMING COOLER/DRIER WEATHER. THE AVIATION SECTION WAS ALSO
UPDATED FOR THE 18Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF A COLD
FRONT AND THE ARRIVAL OF A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINNING LATE
MONDAY NIGHT PERSISTING THROUGH THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED IN THE
WAKE OF A COLD FRONT AND THE ARRIVAL OF A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINNING LATE MONDAY NIGHT PERSISTING THROUGH THURSDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT AND THIS WILL BRING AN END TO THIS MOST RECENT ROUND OF
HEAT AND HUMIDITY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND BY TUESDAY MORNING AND THE RIDGE AXIS WILL EXTEND FAR
SOUTH ENCOMPASSING THE CAROLINAS. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND LOWER THE HUMIDITY OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. SOME OF THE COOLER SPOTS MAY DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WITH DECENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN
ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
INCREASING AGAIN BY FRIDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
MVFR CIGS AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE
PRIOR TO 08Z AS DRIER AIR BUILDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT. VFR
THEREAFTER. STEADY GRADIENT WILL PRODUCE 10-15 KNOT NE WINDS
TODAY, GUSTING TO 20 KNOTS AT TIMES AT THE COAST.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK... VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH
THURSDAY IN A DRIER AND COOLER AIRMASS. MAY SEE AN UPTICK IN
SHRA/TSRA BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LIMITED AT
THIS TIME WITH ANY POTENTIAL RESTRICTIONS.
MARINE
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...A NELY SURGE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. THIS WILL
RESULT IN MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS THAT WILL GRADUALLY
EXPAND ACROSS THE LONG BAY COASTAL WATERS. PLAN ON EXPANDING THE
ADVISORY FOR THESE AREAS AS A RESULT. THE NELY FETCH WILL
PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS RESIDES ACROSS
THE CAROLINAS. WHILE THIS FETCH CONTINUES THE STRONGEST PORTION
OF IT WILL REMAIN FARTHER OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY. A TROUGH WILL
APPROACH FROM THE EAST BUT WILL KEEP THE NELY FETCH PINCHED
ACROSS THE WATERS THURSDAY BEFORE WE SEE A BETTER DROP IN WIND
SPEEDS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ULTIMATELY, THE PERSISTENT NELY
FETCH WILL PREVENT ANY RAPID IMPROVEMENT IN THE SEA STATE UNTIL
LATER IN THE WEEK.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 6 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH
THIS EVENING FOR NCZ106-108.
SC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 6 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH
THIS EVENING FOR SCZ054-056.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ250-
252.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR AMZ254-256.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...MAS/SRP
KEY MESSAGES...SRP
DISCUSSION...SRP
AVIATION...21
MARINE...SRP
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page