016
FXUS62 KILM 131126
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
626 AM EST FRI FEB 13 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 12Z TAFS.
AS OF 1214AM...
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN RAINFALL SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY, ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN RAINFALL AMOUNTS IS NOT
INCREASING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) EXTENDED PERIOD OF BENEFICIAL RAINFALL ARRIVES SUNDAY AND
CONTINUES INTO MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...EXTENDED PERIOD OF BENEFICIAL RAINFALL ARRIVES
SUNDAY AND CONTINUES INTO MONDAY.
ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THE PRESENCE OF A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM
BRINGING RAIN TO THE LOCAL AREA SUN INTO MON CONTINUES TO INCREASE,
CONFIDENCE IN RAINFALL TOTALS IS SOMEWHAT LOWER. THERE IS A ROUGHLY
24 HOUR PERIOD WHERE PRECIPITABLE WATER EXCEEDS 200% OF NORMAL ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA, SO MOISTURE IS NOT THE PROBLEM. THE TRACK OF THE
STACKED LOW, SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH A SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPING OFF
THE NC/VA COAST IS ONE THAT TENDS TO LEAD TO FORECASTS THAT OVER
PROMISE RAINFALL. CONVECTION ALONG THE FL GULF COAST AND SOUTHERN GA
FREQUENTLY DISRUPT CONVECTION LOCALLY, LEADING TO LESSER RAINFALL
AMOUNTS. THERE WILL BE STRONG DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND STEEPENING MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES LATER SUN INTO SUN NIGHT AS THE 5H LOW MOVES
CLOSER. LOW LEVEL FORCING IS LIMITED WITH ONLY A WEAK WARM FRONT IN
THE REGION AND CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH THE MARINE LAYER WILL CURTAIL
DIURNAL INSTABILITY. STILL THINK WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL OCCUR AND
LIKELY FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME, JUST WORRIED THAT WHAT LOOKED
LIKE A SLAM DUNK 1.00" 24/48 HOURS AGO NOW MAY STRUGGLE TO EXCEED
0.50" FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. STILL, EMBEDDED CONVECTION WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO ENHANCE RAINFALL TOTALS IN SOME AREAS.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR EXISTS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS DRY HIGH
PRESSURE MAINTAINS CONTROL. EXPECT A STEADY BREEZE GENERALLY
OUT OF THE NNE DURING MUCH OF TODAY, THEN BACKING TO NNW LATE
TODAY BEFORE GOING CALM THIS EVENING. CALM WINDS ARE
ANTICIPATED THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT, WHICH COULD RESULT IN SOME
SHALLOW MIST/FOG FORMATION IN FAVORED LOCATIONS SUCH AS OVER AND
NEAR SWAMPS AND RIVERS, BUT CONFIDENCE IN ANY RESTRICTIONS DUE
TO MIST IS LOW DUE TO THE ABUNDANCE OF DRY AIR JUST ABOVE THE
GROUND.
EXTENDED FORECAST...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILING. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE LATER
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTS THE AREA.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT...
LIGHT WINDS WILL INCREASE EARLY THIS MORNING AS A SURGE OF
COOL, DRY AIR ARRIVES OVER THE WATERS. NORTHERLY WINDS OF 10-15
KTS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS MORNING BEFORE SUBSIDING THIS
AFTERNOON TO 10 KTS OR LESS. SEAS AROUND 1-2 FT EARLY RISE
SLIGHTLY TO 1-3 FT IN TANDEM WITH THE WINDS, WITH THE HIGHEST
SEAS IN THE OUTER HALF OF THE COASTAL WATERS AROUND AND EAST OF
CAPE FEAR. AS WINDS SUBSIDE THIS AFTERNOON, SEAS WILL FALL BACK
TO 1-2 FT. WIND WAVES WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONTRIBUTOR TO THE
WAVE SPECTRUM.
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD SAT MORNING SHIFTS OFFSHORE DURING THE
DAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. THIS LOW
WILL TIGHTEN UP THE SURFACE GRADIENT SUN INTO MON, LEADING TO A
PERIOD OF ENHANCED SOUTHERLY FLOW. NOT SOLD ON SPEEDS REACHING
HEADLINE CRITERIA, ALTHOUGH A SOLID 20KT SEEMS A GOOD BET.
HOWEVER, EXTENDED SOUTHERLY FETCH IS LIKELY TO BUILD SEAS OVER 6
FT LATER SUN INTO MON. EXPECT A 12-24 HOUR DURATION OF SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS, BUT DECREASING NORTH TO NORTHEAST
FLOW MON NIGHT INTO TUE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST
DROPS SEAS UNDER 6 FT. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TUE WITH SPEEDS UNDER
10 KT AND SEAS FALLING TO 2- 4 FT BY MIDDAY.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...ILM
KEY MESSAGES...III
DISCUSSION...III
AVIATION...ABW
MARINE...III/ABW
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