393  
FXUS62 KILM 110549  
AFDILM  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC  
149 AM EDT FRI JUL 11 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS  
 
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.  
RAIN CHANCES MAY DECREASE SLIGHTLY FOR THE WEEKEND, BUT  
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN A FIXTURE INTO THE  
END OF NEXT WEEK.  
 
 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/  
 
SOME LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG COULD BE AROUND, ESPECIALLY INLAND,  
TOWARDS DAYBREAK. THESE SHOULD CLEAR UP AFTER SUNRISE WHERE WE'LL  
HAVE A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER DAY. ACTIVITY SHOULD BE FOCUSED ALONG THE  
SEA BREEZE AND GRADUALLY SHIFT INLAND WHERE THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME  
ACTIVITY MOVING IN FROM THE PIEDMONT. BEST RAIN CHANCES FOR THE DAY  
WILL BE NEAR THE COAST AND ANTICIPATED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS  
WILL BE SCATTERED. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED BUT WITH THE  
AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY DUE TO THE WARM/HUMID AIRMASS SOME STORMS  
COULD BECOME STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS. FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE DUE  
TO THE LACK OF ANY MAJOR STEERING FLOW CAUSING SLOW MOVING, HEAVY  
RAIN-BRINGING SHOWERS AND STORMS. HIGHS NEAR 90, LOWS IN THE LOWER  
70S.  
 
 
   
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/  
 
WEEKEND ENVIRONMENT REMAINS PRIMED FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS  
AND THUNDERSTORMS. ABUNDANT, DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH  
PRECIPITABLE WATER AOA 2 INCHES WHILE THE PIEDMONT TROUGH AND SEA  
BREEZE WILL BOTH ACT AS TRIGGERS. IN ADDITION SBCAPE WILL BE AROUND  
2500 J/KG, ENOUGH TO KICK OFF STORMS ON ITS OWN. THE ONLY THING  
REALLY LACKING IS MID-LEVEL SUPPORT. NO REAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY WITH A  
WEAK 5H TROUGH OFF THE EAST COAST AND A 5H RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE  
DEEP SOUTH. NOT CONFIDENT COVERAGE WILL BE MORE THAN MID TO HIGH  
CHANCE, ALTHOUGH THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS POCKETS OF LIKELY AROUND.  
TIME WILL TELL, BUT THE LACK OF ANY MID-LEVEL FORCING, WHICH HAS  
BEEN KEY TO ACTIVITY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THE LAST FEW DAYS, DOES  
MAKE ONE WONDER IF THE RAIN CHANCES IN THE NBM ARE A BIT OVERDONE.  
TEMPERATURES AROUND NORMAL DURING THE DAY WITH LOWS RUNNING A FEW  
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.  
 
 
   
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/  
 
UNSETTLED WEEK AHEAD WITH BERMUDA HIGH AND STALLED FRONT/PIEDMONT  
TROUGH THE THEME. WEAK RIDGING ALOFT MON IS SHIFTED FARTHER WEST TUE  
AND A WEAKNESS IN THE 5H RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THIS  
WEAKNESS ALONG WITH THE PIEDMONT TROUGH, SEA BREEZE, AND DIURNAL  
INSTABILITY CONTRIBUTE TO DAILY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. COVERAGE  
WILL BE MORE THAN IS TYPICAL IN THE SUMMER WITH POTENTIAL FOR A  
LIKELY POP EVERYDAY. DEEP MOISTURE LINGERS THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH  
PRECIPITABLE WATER OVER 2 INCHES, EXCEEDING 2.3" AT TIMES. THE ONLY  
SURFACE FEATURE OF NOTE IS A COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST  
LATER MON INTO TUE WHICH THEN STALLS IN THE AREA. THIS IS LIKELY TO  
PROVIDE A BUMP IN RAIN CHANCES EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE DEEP MOISTURE,  
INCREASED COVERAGE AND STORM MOTION UNDER 10 MPH MON-WED DOES SET  
THE STAGE FOR PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN. HARD TO PINPOINT ANY ONE DAY AS  
FAVORED FOR FLOODING, BUT WILL BE SOMETHING TO WATCH. HIGHS ABOVE  
NORMAL MON DROP BELOW NORMAL TUE-THU WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND  
PRECIPITATION LIMITING HEATING. LOWS ABOVE NORMAL CONTINUE.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/  
 
MAIN CONCERN FOR THE PERIOD WILL BE MVFR TO IFR STRATUS AND FOG,  
PRIMARILY FOR INLAND TERMINALS. COVERAGE OF FOG WILL DEPEND ON IF  
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CLEAR OUT BUT FOR NOW HAVE SOLID MVFR 09Z  
ONWARDS AWAY FROM THE COAST UNTIL 14-15Z. THEN RESTRICTIONS WILL  
TRANSITION MORE TOWARDS OUR TYPICAL SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM SETUP  
WITH THE SEA BREEZE. INLAND TERMINALS WILL SEE ACTION A LITTLE LATER  
THAN THE COAST, MORE TOWARDS THE EVENING.  
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...INTERMITTENT FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE  
EACH DAY DUE TO DAYTIME/EVENING CONVECTION AND POTENTIAL EARLY  
MORNING FOG/STRATUS.  
 
 
   
MARINE  
 
THROUGH TONIGHT...  
W WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SW WITH THE SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON,  
INCREASING TO ~15 KTS. SEAS GENERALLY 2-4 FT WITH A SW WIND  
WAVE AT 4-5 SECONDS AND SE 2-3 FT SWELL AT 7-8 SECONDS.  
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE WATERS  
WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN COVERAGE WITH THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE  
AT THE COAST.  
 
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...  
SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND WEST SIDE OF BERMUDA HIGH CONTINUES  
THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE FLOW BECOMES MORE VARIABLE AND DROPS  
UNDER 10 KT AS WEAK FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. SPEEDS MAY  
BRIEFLY HIT 15 KT SAT BEFORE WINDS DROP FOR THE START OF NEXT  
WEEK. SEAS AROUND 3 FT SAT DROP TO 2-3 FT SUN AND 2 FT OR LESS  
MON/TUE. THE DOMINANT WAVE WILL BE A LONGER PERIOD SOUTHERLY  
WIND WAVE, 6-7 SECONDS, WITH AN EASTERLY SWELL ALSO PRESENT.  
 
 
   
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
NC...NONE.  
SC...NONE.  
MARINE...NONE.  
 
 
 
 
 
SYNOPSIS...ILM  
NEAR TERM...LEW  
SHORT TERM...III  
LONG TERM...III  
AVIATION...LEW  
MARINE...III/LEW  
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