421
FXUS62 KILM 041855
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
155 PM EST WED FEB 4 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THIS UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) RAIN CONTINUES THROUGH TONIGHT, AND MAY GIVE WAY TO SOME LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM BY EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING.
2) ABNORMALLY COLD WEATHER WILL RETURN THIS WEEKEND BEFORE A WARMUP
COMMENCES NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: RAIN CONTINUES THROUGH TONIGHT, AND MAY GIVE WAY
TO SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM BY
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
RAIN IS ONGOING ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON, WITH THE COLD FRONT
LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA. THIS FRONT WILL
SLOWLY PUSH TOWARDS THE COAST TONIGHT, BRINGING THE MAIN PRECIP
SHIELD WITH IT. UP TO HALF AN INCH OF RAIN HAS ALREADY FELL IN PARTS
OF THE PEE DEE REGION, WITH ANOTHER QUARTER TO HALF AN INCH EXPECTED
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THE TROUGH ALOFT WILL DEEPEN AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES, WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVIER RAIN. THIS
MAY LEAD TO LOCALLY HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS IN SOME SPOTS, BUT THERE
ARE NO FLOODING CONCERNS, AND THERE CERTAINLY ISN'T NEAR ENOUGH TO
THREATEN THE DROUGHT.
BIGGER THING TO NOTE IS THE COLD AIR THAT WILL START SEEPING IN
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT. WARMER AIR STILL PERSISTS
ALOFT, BUT SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL START TO DIP BELOW FREEZING A
FEW HOURS BEFORE SUNRISE THURSDAY MORNING. THERE APPEARS TO BE JUST
ENOUGH OVERLAP BETWEEN THE SURFACE COLD AIR AND THE MOISTURE TO
ALLOW FOR SOME LIGHT, ISOLATED FREEZING RAIN TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
NORTHERN TIER OF OUR AREA (GENERALLY ALONG A LINE FROM DARLINGTON
COUNTY, SC ALL THE WAY TO PENDER COUNTY, NC). KEEPING THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY IN PLACE FOR ROBESON, BLADEN, AND PENDER COUNTIES,
WHICH HAVE THE BEST CHANCE AT SEEING THE MOST ACCUMULATION (READ:
ONLY A TRACE TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AT BEST). NO
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED.
FREEZING RAIN SHOULD CUT OFF IN THESE AREAS BY 9-10 AM EST
THURSDAY MORNING AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES KICK UP ABOVE FREEZING
AGAIN. RAIN CHANCES TAPER OFF THROUGHOUT THE DAY, WITH CLOUDS
SLOWER TO CLEAR OUT.
KEY MESSAGE 2: ABNORMALLY COLD WEATHER WILL RETURN THIS WEEKEND
BEFORE A WARMUP COMMENCES NEXT WEEK.
A MID-UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL PASS OVERHEAD ON THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE
OFFSHORE HELPING TO SEND COLD AND DRY AIR SOUTHWARD. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO SUPPORT LOW TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 20S AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE COAST EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. WEAKENING WINDS THROUGH THE
NIGHT SHOULD PRECLUDE APPARENT TEMPERATURES REACHING 15F, BUT SOME
WIND CHILLS IN THE UPPER TEENS ARE POSSIBLE IN FAR NORTHEASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA (E.G., PENDER AND NEW HANOVER
COUNTIES) WHERE WINDS LINGER THE LONGEST.
WHILE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL KEEP HIGH AND LOW
TEMPS ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT MUCH CLOSER TO NORMAL (E.G., HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S),
ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR WILL FOLLOW BEHIND A DRY COLD FRONT
PUSHING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. DESPITE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ON
SATURDAY, STRONG COLD ADVECTION VIA BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL KEEP
HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE LOW-MID 40S ON SATURDAY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S. ONCE AGAIN, WINDS WILL BE WEAKENING
THROUGH THE NIGHT, BUT A STEADY LIGHT BREEZE SHOULD REMAIN, WHICH
MAY RESULT IN A PERIOD OF WIND CHILLS AT OR BELOW 15F, WHICH WOULD
NECESSITATE A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY. ON SUNDAY, THE CORE OF THE COLD
AIR WILL BE SHIFTING OFFSHORE, PERMITTING SLIGHTLY WARMER DAYTIME
HIGHS THAN ON SATURDAY IN MOST AREAS WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS.
THEREAFTER, MID-UPPER RIDGING GRADUALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD AND RAISES
HEIGHTS ACROSS THE AREA, THUS LEADING TO A GRADUAL WARMUP WITH
LITTLE TO NO PRECIP CHANCES.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
MIXED BAG OF VFR ALL THE WAY DOWN TO LIFR ACROSS THE AREA TO KICK
OFF THE 18Z TAFS, DUE TO A COLD FRONT BRINGING RAIN TO THE AREA.
MAIN SHIELD OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER KFLO AND KLBT, SLOWLY
HEADING TOWARDS KILM, KCRE, AND KMYR THIS EVENING. TRIED TO THREAD
THE NEEDLE WITH PROB30 GROUPS TO BEST REPRESENT THE TIMING OF THE
POOREST IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS WITH HEAVIER RAIN LATE THIS EVENING.
MAIN SWATH OF RAIN SHOULD BE MOVING ON FROM THE INLAND TERMINALS BY
06Z OR SO, AND THEN OFFSHORE OF THE COASTAL TERMINALS BY 12-15Z.
WINDS VARYING AT FIRST, BEFORE SETTLING ON THE NNE TOWARDS THE END
OF THE PERIOD, GUSTING UP TOWARDS 18-19 KTS.
EXTENDED FORECAST...VERY GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TOWARDS MVFR EXPECTED
THURSDAY AFTERNOON, TURNING TO VFR SOMETIME THURSDAY NIGHT. FROM
THERE, VFR TO DOMINATE THROUGH NEXT MONDAY.
MARINE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AT 10-15 KTS VEER TOWARDS
THE NNE BY THURSDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
WATERS. GRADIENT WINDS TIGHTEN AS A RESULT, AND GUSTS MAY KICK UP TO
25-27 KTS AT TIMES THURSDAY AFTERNOON, PARTICULARLY OVER THE WATERS
FROM SURF CITY, NC TO CAPE FEAR, NC. THIS IS RIGHT ON THE EDGE OF A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY, BUT THE SETUP JUST DOESN'T LOOK STRONG ENOUGH
TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. MAY NEED TO RE-EVALUATE THIS
DURING THE NEXT FORECAST CYCLE TONIGHT. SEAS GENERALLY 2-4 FT, WITH
5 FT WAVES BUILDING IN OVER THE AFOREMENTIONED NC WATERS LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...A COUPLE OF FRONTS WILL
RESULT IN CHANGEABLE WINDS WITH INITIALLY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS
ON THURSDAY NIGHT BACKING TO SOUTHWESTERLY ON FRIDAY, THEN VEERING
TO NORTHWESTERLY AGAIN OVER FRIDAY NIGHT. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND BEFORE TURNING WESTERLY OR
SOUTHWESTERLY LATE SUNDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AMIDST A STRONG PUSH
OF COLD AIR. SEAS WILL VARY AS COLD AIR SURGES ARRIVE, THEN SUBSIDE,
WITH MOST OF THE WATERS SEEING BETWEEN 2-5 FT WAVES. SOME 6 FT SEAS
MAY BE OBSERVED IN OUTER PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTHEAST OF
CAPE FEAR BOTH ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT. SEAS SUBSIDE TO
AROUND 1-3 FT ON SUNDAY AMIDST LIGHT WINDS.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 11 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
NCZ087-096-105.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...
KEY MESSAGES...IGB/ABW
DISCUSSION...IGB/ABW
AVIATION...IGB
MARINE...IGB/ABW
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