350
FXUS62 KILM 022350
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
650 PM EST FRI JAN 2 2026
SYNOPSIS
A FAST MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN TO THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. A WARMING TREND AND RAIN- FREE CONDITIONS
ARE THEN EXPECTED NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS.
UPDATE
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 00Z TAFS. REFRESHED TEMP,
DEWPOINT, WINDS, AND SKY GRIDS TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS AND EXPECTED TRENDS.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
*KEY MESSAGES/HIGHLIGHTS*
*HAZARDS: VERY LOW RISK OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING DURING HIGH TIDE
SATURDAY MORNING (MAINLY ALONG THE LOWER CAPE FEAR RIVER)
*RAIN CHANCES: NONE THRU THIS EVE; LOW TO MODERATE OVERNIGHT; HIGH
SAT
*TEMPS: ABOVE NORMAL TONIGHT; NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL SAT
*CONFIDENCE: MODERATE TO HIGH
DETAILS: LOW-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE SOUTH WILL GIVE WAY
TO A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TONIGHT WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG
THE FRONT THROUGH SC SATURDAY. LIGHT RAIN COULD BEGIN ANYTIME AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS MOISTURE DEEPENS, ESPECIALLY LATE TONIGHT, BUT SHOULDN'T
SEE ANY MORE THAN ABOUT 0.10" THROUGH DAYBREAK. RAIN WILL THEN
CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST AND INCREASE IN INTENSITY SATURDAY AS
MOISTURE/FORCING RAMP UP OVER THE AREA WITH THE APPROACH OF A MID-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE. MOST LIKELY RAIN TOTALS THROUGH 7 PM SATURDAY HAVE
COME DOWN A BIT SINCE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, WITH UP TO ~0.5" FOR
MOST AREAS W/ LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO ~1" POSSIBLE (ESPECIALLY
IN SC). THUNDER PROSPECTS APPEAR VERY LOW, MAINLY SAT AFTN/EVE NEAR
THE SC COAST NEAR/SOUTH OF GEORGETOWN WHERE A BIT OF MAINLY ELEVATED
INSTABILITY IS PROGGED. ABUNDANT CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPS UP ABOVE
NORMAL TONIGHT, WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE MID/UPPER 40S. TEMPS
SATURDAY ARE A BIT TRICKY AS THERE COULD BE A BIG SPREAD IN HIGHS
FROM AREAS TO THE NW NEAR THE PEE DEE/SANDHILLS TO AREAS TO THE SE
TOWARD THE GRAND STRAND/LOWCOUNTRY. THERE IS LIKELY TO ALSO BE A NON-
TYPICAL DIURNAL TEMP PATTERN INLAND WHERE TEMPS COULD PEAK EARLY IN
THE DAY BEFORE LEVELING OFF OR EVEN FALLING AS THE PRECIP MOVES IN
DUE TO THE SOLIDIFYING INLAND HIGH PRESSURE. AREAS TO THE SE TOWARD
GEORGETOWN SHOULD STILL BE ABLE TO CLIMB TO NEAR 60 IN THE AFTERNOON
WHICH IS CLOSER TO THE NORMAL HIGHS FOR THOSE SPOTS.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
LIGHT RAIN WILL LINGER INTO SATURDAY EVENING VIA THE
SOMEWHAT QUICK MOVING SYSTEM THAT BRINGS MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN EARLIER
IN THE DAY. BEYOND THIS ITS A TEMPERATURE FORECAST OUTSIDE OF THE
CLEARING LINE EARLY SUNDAY. NOT THE COLDEST OF AIRMASSES WE HAVE
SEEN THIS SEASON WITH HIGHS EXPECTED IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THE MID LEVEL PATTERN WANTS TO OFFER UP MORE AMPLITUDE
FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD WHILE SHIFTING TO LOWER HEIGHTS TO THE WEST.
THIS RESULTS IN MORE RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OFFSHORE. THE RESULTING SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR THE REGION
INCLUDE A STRONG WARMUP WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO PERHAPS UPPER
70S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST
IS OF COURSE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON COLD WATER TEMPERATURES AND
RESULTING SEA BREEZE. AS FOR POPS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOWER HEIGHTS
TO THE WEST EVENTUALLY WANT TO BRING A SYSTEM TO THE EAST.
MAINTAINED THE LOWER VALUES WESTERN ZONES. POPS ACROSS THE WATER MAY
END UP BEING SEA FOG BUT PERHAPS SHOWERS IN SOME CASES.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
HIGH CONFIDENCE EXISTS IN VFR CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT AS
MOISTURE INCREASES FROM TOP TO BOTTOM. A BACKDOOR FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO SNEAK SOUTHWARD TONIGHT, TURNING LIGHT SW WINDS TO
NE IN A SHALLOW NEAR-SURFACE LAYER. AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN ARE
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE FROM WEST TO EAST VERY LATE IN THE NIGHT AT
KFLO AND OVERSPREAD THE REMAINING TERMINALS DURING SATURDAY
MORNING. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A RAPID DECLINE IN CIGS INTO THE IFR
RANGE WILL TAKE PLACE AS STEADIER RAIN ARRIVES BY MIDDAY, WITH
A FURTHER DECLINE INTO LIFR CARRYING MODERATE CONFIDENCE LATE IN
THE PERIOD AFTER THE STEADIER RAIN DEPARTS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT AND POSSIBLY LINGER INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS A STORM SYSTEM
DEPARTS. VFR RETURNS ON SUNDAY AND SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE
REST OF THE PERIOD.
MARINE
THROUGH SATURDAY...
HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH A BIT LOWER CONFIDENCE
SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE GIVES WAY TO A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
TONIGHT AND THEN LOW PRESSURE SATURDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
COULD INCREASE ENOUGH FOR MARGINAL SCA-LEVEL WINDS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON BUT THIS WILL DEPEND ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW
PRESSURE. SEAS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN 4 FT OR LESS.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
ANY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE CONFINED TO OVERNIGHT
SATURDAY INTO THE DAY SUNDAY WITH DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE TO THE EAST.
NORTH WINDS OF 15-20 KNOTS WILL DEVELOP AND PERSIST WITH SIGNIFICANT
SEAS OF 3-5 FEET. THE NEED FOR A HEADLINE REMAINS ON THE VERY LOW
END OF THE SPECTRUM. BEYOND THIS A TYPICAL ALBEIT METHODICAL TREND
TO A RETURN FLOW WILL OCCUR. SOUTHWEST WINDS DO APPEAR AT THE VERY
END OF THE PERIOD WITH WIND SPEEDS FALLING TO 10-15 KNOTS.
SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...ABW
NEAR TERM...RJB
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...ABW
MARINE...RJB/SHK
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