167
FXUS62 KILM 151840
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
240 PM EDT SAT AUG 15 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SUNDAY OVER MOST OF
THE AREA. OTHERWISE, NO SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
1) THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
BROAD UPR-LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
INTO SUNDAY. A FAVORABLE POSITION FOR HIGH HEAT AND HUMIDITY
LOCALLY BEING ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE, ALTHOUGH WITH A
HIGHER LIKELIHOOD OF MORE CLOUD COVER THAN TODAY, HEAT INDICES
SHOULD BE A BIT LOWER, BUT ENOUGH TO WARRANT ANOTHER HEAT
ADVISORY OVER MOST OF THE AREA. KEPT PENDER AND NEW HANOVER OUT
OF THE ADVISORY WHERE HEAD INDICES ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK MORE IN
THE 100-104 DEGREE RANGE, AND WILL RE-EVALUATE IN THE NEXT
FORECAST UPDATE. EXTREME HEAT WATCHES/WARNINGS MAY BE NECESSARY
FOR MONDAY WITH LOWER RAIN CHANCES AND LESS CLOUD COVER
ALLOWING FOR HIGH TEMPS ALSO IN THE 95-100 DEGREE RANGE. MORE
MARGINAL FOR TUESDAY WITH HIGHER RAIN CHANCES (CHANCE POPS)
COMPARED TO MONDAY AS BETTER SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALOFT TRAVERSES
THE AREA. HEAT PRODUCTS ARE LESS LIKELY FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
NEXT WEEK AS AN UPR-LEVEL TROUGH DROPS INTO THE AREA WITH RAIN
CHANCES IN THE CHANCE TO LIKELY RANGE EACH DAY.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY OUTSIDE OF THE BRIEF IFR/LIFR
ASSOCIATED WITH SCATTERED STORMS. THE STORMS MAY STICK AROUND
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS ESPECIALLY NEAR THE MYRTLES BEFORE
WINDING DOWN OVERNIGHT. MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR PATCHY FOG
INLAND SO INCLUDED MVFR CONDITIONS AT KFLO AND KLBT. SIMILAR
CONDITIONS THEN FOR DAYTIME SUNDAY AS TODAY, WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER
RAIN CHANCES LEADING TO SOME BRIEF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.
EXTENDED FORECAST...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTION. AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING
STORMS COULD RESULT IN BRIEF RESTRICTIONS AT TIMES.
MARINE
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK WITH NO STRONG FROPAS
ANTICIPATED. WINDS AVERAGE 10-15 KT OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTION,
WITH SEAS STEADY AT 2-3 FT.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ087-096-099-
105>110.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR NCZ087-096-099-
109-110.
SC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ017-023-024-
032-033-039-054>056-058-059.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR SCZ017-023-024-
032-033-039-054>056-058-059.
MARINE...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...MAS
KEY MESSAGES...MAS
DISCUSSION...MAS
AVIATION...MAS
MARINE...MAS
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