878
FXUS62 KILM 191715
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
115 PM EDT THU MAR 19 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NOTHING SIGNIFICANT AT THIS TIME.
KEY MESSAGES
1)A WARMUP THAT BEGINS TODAY WILL BE ENDED BY A COLD FRONT LATE
MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...A WARMUP THAT BEGINS TODAY WILL BE ENDED BY A
COLD FRONT LATE MONDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY ELONGATED UP
AND DOWN A GOOD PORTION OF THE EAST COAST. AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES
THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE ANTICYCLONE WILL BE ERODED BY THE
NORTHERN BRANCH/FRONTAL BOUNDARIES. THE REMAINING CENTER OF THE HIGH
WILL BE OVER THE GULF. THE RESULTING LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING
VERY WARM TEMPERATURES, THOUGH NOT QUITE AS WARM AS EARLIER IN MARCH
WHEN THE HIGH WAS OFF THE EAST COAST. THE MID LEVEL TROUGH IN THE NE
SHARPENS ENOUGH ON MONDAY TO PUSH A LARGELY MOISTURE-DEPRIVED FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA, IT'S MOISTURE DEPRIVATION COMING FROM THE SAME
DISPLACEMENT OF THE HIGH FROM IT'S BERMUDA POSITION. THE COOLDOWN
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AND GENERALLY ONLY REPRESENT
A RETURN OF CLIMO TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
THE POST-FRONTAL HIGH THAT BUILDS IN WILL IN FACT WIND UP MORE
OFFSHORE MEANING A WARM AND MOIST RETURN FLOW INTO THE
SOUTHEAST.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR WITH CLEAR SKIES, NO FOG, AND LIGHT WINDS THAT WILL TEND TO BE
NORTHERLY TODAY AND SOUTHERLY TOMORROW. HIGH PRESSURE TRANSITIONS
FROM BEING ELONGATED UP AND DOWN THE COAST TO CENTERED IN THE GULF.
EXTENDED FORECAST... VFR LIKELY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
MARINE
THROUGH FRIDAY... WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE IS ELONGATED ALONG MUCH OF
THE EAST COAST. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE HIGH WILL BE ERODED BY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TOMORROW LEAVING BEHIND A CENTER THAT SINKS INTO
THE GULF. WINDS BECOME VERY LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY AFTER BEING GUSTY AND OUT OF THE NE TODAY. WIND WAVES
WILL ABATE BUT THE EASTERLY SWELL WILL CONTINUE, BECOMING THE
DOMINANT WAVE.
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... SWELL ENERGY FROM THE E/SE WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE DOMINANT WAVE EARLY IN THE PERIOD. THIS GRADUALLY
CHANGES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT, THE
BOUNDARY SLATED TO PASS ACROSS THE WATERS LATER MONDAY. A HEALTHY
VEER EXPECTED WITH FROPA FROM SW TO NW OR EVEN N/NE. WINDS AND SEAS
COULD BOTH RAMP UP TO ADVISORY LEVELS FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...ILM
KEY MESSAGES...III/VAO
DISCUSSION...III/VAO
AVIATION...VAO
MARINE...III/VAO
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page