378
FXUS62 KILM 060051
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
851 PM EDT SAT SEP 5 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED.
AS OF 3 PM EDT: UPDATED THE FIRST KEY MESSAGE TO FOCUS ON THE
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR LATER TODAY/THIS EVENING. ALSO ADDED A
SECOND KEY MESSAGE FOR ADDITIONAL STORMS SUNDAY, FOLLOWED BY
MORE SEASONABLE WEATHER THROUGH MID-WEEK. MARINE DISCUSSION WAS
UPDATED, ALONG WITH THE AVIATION SECTION FOR 18Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS,
ESPECIALLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
2) THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS DURING SUNDAY,
FOLLOWED BY MORE SEASONABLE WEATHER THROUGH MID-WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS, ESPECIALLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES FOR MOST OF
THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE RISK GREATEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EARLY EVENING. STRONG HEATING AHEAD OF AN OLD MCS
EMBEDDED IN THE NWLY STEERING WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL PEAK THIS EVENING. WHILE SOME
HAIL IS POSSIBLE THE THE WIND RISK HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 30% AND
IS THE PRIMARY THREAT. THE AREA OF STORMS SHOULD MOVE AT A
DECENT PACE THROUGH THE AREA, WITH THE SEVERE WEATHER RISK
DECREASING BY LATER IN THE EVENING.
KEY MESSAGE 2... THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS DURING SUNDAY, FOLLOWED BY MORE SEASONABLE WEATHER
THROUGH MID-WEEK.
A LARGE UPPER LOW ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND EASTERN CANADA WITH
THE H5 RIDGE WILL FOCUS ANOTHER MINOR SHORT-WAVE ACROSS THE AREA
DURING SUNDAY. WHILE AVAILABLE INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE AS HIGH
AS TODAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH SOME HAVING THE POTENTIAL TO
BECOME STRONG TOWARD THE BETTER INSTABILITY ACROSS SC. THUS PLAN
TO FOCUS THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE SC ZONES, CLOSER TO WHERE
THE FRONT BECOMES ORIENTED. STORMS WILL DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS
OF HEATING SUNDAY EVENING.
TEMPERATURES WILL FINALLY FEEL LIKE NORMAL MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IN
PARTICULAR. RIDGING WILL LIKELY BUILD BACK ACROSS THE AREA BY
THURSDAY WITH A RETURN OF +90 HIGHS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT OFFSHORE OVER THE
NEXT HOUR. LIGHT RAIN MAY IMPACT A COUPLE OF TERMINALS THROUGH
02Z, BUT MVFR AT WORST. VFR THIS EVENING AND THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. NORTHEAST WINDS FOLLOWING A COLD FRONT SHOULD
BRING STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG TOMORROW MORNING. THE BEST CHANCE
OF FOG WILL BE INLAND WITH STRATUS LIKELY TO DOMINATE AT THE
COAST AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE AFTER 18Z SUNDAY NEAR THE SLOW-MOVING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK... ADDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM SCATTERED CONVECTION. GENERALLY A LOW
RISK FOR RESTRICTIONS THEREAFTER WITH GENERALLY PREVAILING VFR
CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH KEEPING DRIER
AIR IN PLACE.
MARINE
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS
THE WATERS TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE STRONG
WIND GUSTS AS THEY MOVE THROUGH, ALONG WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING.
N-NELY FLOW WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY, QUICKLY VEERING TO AN ELY
DIRECTION BY SUNDAY AFTER NOON. DURING MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGES IN FROM THE NORTH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE
WITH A PERIOD OF MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN A
NE-ELY FETCH. THIS FETCH COULD STAY FOCUSED ACROSS THE WATERS
INTO TUESDAY AS WELL. THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL BUILD OVER THE
AREA DURING WEDNESDAY WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING ACROSS ALL
WATERS. FINALLY, AS THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER
OFFSHORE THE WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO A SLY DIRECTION THURSDAY.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...ILM
KEY MESSAGES...SRP
DISCUSSION...SRP
AVIATION...21/SRP
MARINE...SRP
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