219
FXUS62 KILM 260021
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
821 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 00Z.
KEY MESSAGES
1) THE BEST RAIN CHANCES IN WEEKS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE EASTERN CAROLINAS.
2) RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE TUESDAY LINGERING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
OVERALL RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK TO REMAIN LOW WITH MINIMAL IMPACTS TO
DROUGHT CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...THE BEST RAIN CHANCES IN WEEKS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE EASTERN CAROLINAS.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE EASTERN CAROLINAS TONIGHT.
COOLER MID AND UPPER LEVEL TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH AN
ACCOMPANYING UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL ERODE THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
SUFFICIENTLY FOR CONVECTION TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. FORECAST POPS
ARE AS HIGH AS 60-80 PERCENT ACROSS THE PEE DEE AND LUMBERTON REGION
LATE THIS EVENING, WITH 40-60 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES DEVELOPING ALONG
THE COAST LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THIS IS BASED MAINLY ON
NBM BLENDS WITH LOCAL ENHANCEMENT FROM THE HREF THROUGH 10Z SUNDAY.
STORM TOTAL QPF THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING SHOULD AVERAGE 0.2 TO 0.4
INCHES FOR MOST AREAS, AND POTENTIALLY AS HIGH AS AN INCH IN THE
WILMINGTON AREA AS SEVERAL HIGH RES MODELS SUGGEST A SECOND CLUSTER
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON IN
ADVANCE OF A STRONGER SURGE OF NORTHEAST WINDS THAT WILL WORK ITS
WAY ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SURGE IS THE REAL FRONT
WHICH WILL BE FOLLOWED BY AN AIRMASS CHANGE AND COOLER TEMPERATURES
BUILDING IN SUNDAY NIGHT.
IN TERMS OF DROUGHT RELIEF, THIS WEEKEND'S SYSTEM IS NOT LIKELY TO
SIGNIFICANTLY IMPROVE THE D2-D3 DROUGHT CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS
THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. SIX-MONTH RAINFALL DEFICITS ARE IN THE 6-10
INCH RANGE, SO EVEN A SOLID INCH OF RAIN WOULD ONLY ERODE A SMALL
PORTION OF THAT ACCUMULATED WATER DEFICIT. ASIDE FROM ISOLATED
SHOWERS IN THE WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH AND CONWAY AREAS YESTERDAY, IT'S
BEEN 18-19 DAYS SINCE MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION FELL ACROSS MOST OF
OUR FORECAST AREA.
KEY MESSAGE 2...RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE TUESDAY LINGERING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. OVERALL RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK TO REMAIN LOW
WITH MINIMAL IMPACTS TO DROUGHT CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, RAIN CHANCES HAVE DECREASED FOR
TUESDAY AS DRIER AIR IS TOUGH TO ERODE WITH THE SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE INTO WEDNESDAY
WITH MORE APPRECIABLE RAIN CHANCES, THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
INTO THURSDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER LINGERS THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD AS WAVES OF PVA MOVE THROUGH ALOFT WITH LOCALIZED LOW
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. BEST RAIN CHANCES FOR THE PERIOD WILL BE
WEDNESDAY WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, BUT RAINFALL AMOUNTS GREATER
THAN 0.5" ARE UNLIKELY. THE SUBSEQUENT DISTURBANCES ALSO DON'T LOOK
TO BRING MUCH RAINFALL, THOUGH THERE IS THE ADDED UNCERTAINTY
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS COULD ALSO
PRODUCE SLIGHTLY HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY,
WITH SEVERE WEATHER NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING INTO THE FORECAST
AREA FROM THE WEST THIS EVENING AS A WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES
EASTWARD. THIS WILL BRING PASSING LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE
TERMINALS OVERNIGHT WITH VIS PREDOMINANTLY REMAINING ABOVE MVFR
LEVELS. SUPPORT FOR THUNDER IS MEAGER OVER MOST OF THE AREA
EXPECT JUST OFF THE COAST, SO EXPECT COVERAGE TO REMAIN
ISOLATED AT WORST, WITH ANY VIS RESTRICTIONS BEING BRIEF.
CEILINGS CARRY LOWER THAN TYPICAL CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO
AS GUIDANCE TOOLS TEND TO OVEREXAGGERATE HOW LOW CIG HEIGHTS
GET DURING THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM. WHILE CIGS MAY
SLIP BELOW 1000 FEET TONIGHT, HAVE OPTED TO RESERVE THESE MAINLY TO
PROB30 AND TEMPO GROUPS AS THEY SHOULD BE TRANSIENT IN NATURE.
OTHERWISE, EXPECT AT LEAST MVFR CIGS TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF
TOMORROW WITH PASSING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AT
TIMES UNTIL A SURGE OF GUSTY NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS ARRIVE LATER
IN THE AFTERNOON, WHICH MAY FEATURE A NARROW BAND OF HEAVY
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM ALONG IT. BEHIND THIS
FEATURE, SKIES SHOULD SCATTER OUT INLAND WHILE GREATER MOISTURE
NEAR THE COAST SHOULD KEEP RESTRICTIONS IN PLACE THROUGH 00Z.
EXTENDED FORECAST...LINGERING MVFR CIGS REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, MAINLY FOR THE COASTAL TERMINALS.
THERE IS A LOW POTENTIAL FOR LOW STRATUS OR GROUND FOG TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHTS, ALONG WITH IMPACTS POSSIBLE FROM SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY.
MARINE
THROUGH SUNDAY...TODAY IS THE LAST DAY WE'RE EXPERIENCING THE
SUMMERLIKE WEATHER PATTERN OF SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS DUE TO
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE. A WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD MAKE IT
DOWN TO THE BEACHES LATE TONIGHT WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEHIND THE BOUNDARY SUNDAY MORNING. WAVES OF
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT UP
UNTIL THE ARRIVAL OF A STRONGER SURGE OF NORTHEASTERLY WINDS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAY
DEVELOP AS EARLY AS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON NORTH OF CAPE FEAR AS WIND
SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO 20-25 KNOTS BY LATE IN THE DAY.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE THROUGH
WITH A STRONG NE SURGE MOVING ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL BE MET AS NE WINDS GUST ~25 KTS
WITHIN 20 NM AND THEN ~30 KTS 20-60 NM OUT. GALE FORCE GUSTS MAY
BE POSSIBLE FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF SE NC BUT FOR NOW IT
LOOKS VERY BRIEF. SEAS 3-6 FT WITHIN 20 NM AND 6-9 FT BEYOND.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO IMPROVING CONDITIONS LATE MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH 2-3 FT SEAS AND LIGHTER NE WINDS BECOMING
SW AS THE HIGH MOVES AWAY TUESDAY NIGHT. WIND SPEEDS WILL
INCREASE TO 15-20 KTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD
FRONT, SEAS NEAR 4 FT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SOMETIME
THURSDAY WITH WINDS TURNING TO THE NW.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM SUNDAY TO 2 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
AMZ250.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM SUNDAY TO 2 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
AMZ252-254-256.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...ILM
KEY MESSAGES...ILM
DISCUSSION...TRA/LEW
AVIATION...ABW
MARINE...TRA/LEW
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