120
FXUS62 KILM 121914
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
314 PM EDT WED AUG 12 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
HEAT ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR EASTERN PORTIONS OF AREA. ISSUED
HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE AREA FOR THURS. ISSUED COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORY FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AT BEACHES AND ALONG
LOWER CAPE FEAR RIVER FOR THE HIGH TIDE THIS EVENING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
2) MINOR COASTAL FLOODING FORECASTED ALONG AREA
BEACHES AND ALONG THE LOWER CAPE FEAR RIVER DURING EVENING HIGH
TIDE THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.
3) WEAK COLD FRONT EARLY SATURDAY WITH BRIEF IMPROVEMENT TO THE
HEAT FOR THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.
MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL AID IN ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH (AT LEAST) FRIDAY, WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 90S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. TRIPLE DIGIT HIGHS
POSSIBLE FRIDAY. COMBINED WITH SUMMERTIME HUMIDITY, WE WILL
CONTINUE TO HAVE MULTIPLE DAYS OF HEAT PRODUCTS, HEAT ADVISORIES
FOE AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE AREA THROUGH FRI AND POSSIBLY HEAT
WARNING FOR A PORTION OF THE AREA WHERE HEAT INDICES COULD
REACH 110F THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
NORTHWEST FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO BRING SOME STORMS DOWN TOWARD
THE LOCAL AREA AS UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES RIDE DOWN OVER THE TOP
OF THE RIDGE. THESE STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH AS THEY REACH INTO
THE EASTERN CAROLINAS THIS EVENING WITH PLENTY OF DRY AIR ALOFT.
ALTHOUGH STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH ADEQUATE INSTABILITY INTERACTING
WITH PINNED SEA BREEZE, AND PIEDMONT TROUGH COULD LEAD TO A
STORM, FOR TODAY, THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH RIDGING TO KEEP STORMS
AT BAY INTO THIS EVENING.
KEY MESSAGE 2...MINOR COASTAL FLOODING FORECASTED ALONG AREA
BEACHES AND ALONG THE LOWER CAPE FEAR RIVER DURING EVENING HIGH
TIDE THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.
NEW MOON WILL AID IN ELEVATED TIDE LEVELS. LATEST TOTAL WATER
FORECAST HAS WATER LEVELS REACHING MINOR FLOOD STAGE ALONG AREA
BEACHES BOTH WITH THIS EVENING'S HIGH TIDE AND TOMORROW EVENING.
THE LOWER CAPE FEAR RIVER AT DOWNTOWN WILMINGTON IS ALSO
EXPECTED TO REACH MINOR FLOOD LEVELS THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS.
KEY MESSAGE 3...WEAK COLD FRONT EARLY SATURDAY WITH BRIEF
IMPROVEMENT TO THE HEAT FOR THE WEEKEND.
A WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY MAY
BRING SCATTERED STORMS TO THE AREA. LINGERING MOISTURE BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.
WHILE THE FRONT ITSELF WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK THIS FAR SOUTH
WITH THE STRONGER FORCING WELL TO THE NORTHEAST, IT SHOULD
WEAKEN THE RIDGE ENOUGH TO LOWER TEMPS FOR THE WEEKEND. CURRENT
FORECAST MAINTAINS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH SUNDAY,
BEFORE WARMING TREND RETURNS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. ALTHOUGH A PINNED SEA BREEZE SHOULD
PRODUCE SOME CU NEAR COASTAL TERMINALS, EXPECT RIDGE ALOFT WITH
PLENTY OF DRY AIR TO HELP KEEP THEM AT BAY THROUGH THIS EVENING.
OVERALL, EXPECT LIGHT W-SW FLOW WITH A SLIGHT BACKING DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON EVENING AND SLIGHT VEERING DURING OVERNIGHT HOURS
DUE TO SEA/LAND BREEZE.
EXTENDED FORECAST...VFR SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK. SHALLOW GROUND FOG IS POSSIBLE INLAND EACH EARLY MORNING.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
MARINE
THROUGH SUNDAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY WITH BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE
OFFSHORE. WINDS VERY LIGHT OUT OF THE W-SW GENERALLY AROUND 10
KTS OR LESS BECOMING 10 TO 15 KTS, WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS FOR
THE 20-60NM WATERS FRIDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS FORECASTED TO
DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY, WITH
WINDS BRIEFLY TURNING NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT.
SEAS AROUND 2 FT OUT TO 20NM AND 2 TO 3 FT OUT TO 60NM THROUGH
SUNDAY, OUTSIDE OF SLIGHT INCREASE IN SEAS LATE FRIDAY AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. SSW WIND WAVE WILL BE DOMINANT FEATURE, WITH WEAK
ESE SWELL MIXED IN. BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WATERS
WILL BE LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ096-099-
105>110.
SC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ054>056-058-
059.
MARINE...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...RGZ
KEY MESSAGES...RGZ/VAO
DISCUSSION...RGZ/VAO
AVIATION...RGZ
MARINE...RGZ/VAO
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