782
FXUS62 KILM 251113
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
713 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE. KEY MESSAGE
#2 UPDATED WITH LATEST SURF ZONE FORECAST INFORMATION.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DEEP TROPICAL IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL KEEP RAIN
CHANCES HIGH AND INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED FLOODING.
2) HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR NEW HANOVER AND
PENDER COUNTY BEACHES.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...DEEP TROPICAL IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL
KEEP RAIN CHANCES HIGH AND INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
FLOODING.
ONSHORE FLOW NEAR THE COAST AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY INLAND WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING. COASTAL
AREAS MAY SEE A BRIEF SHOWER AFTER SUNRISE AS ONSHORE FLOW
INTENSIFIES AND SURFACE HEATING PROVIDES A LITTLE EXTRA LIFT. BY
AFTERNOON, MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY WILL HAVE SHIFTED INLAND.
ONGOING SHOWERS THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD IN COVERAGE
DURING THE LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. AIR MASS
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG OUTFLOWS THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO
SOME HELP FROM WEAK UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND DIFFERENTIAL
SURFACE HEATING. OUTFLOWS SHOULD SUSTAIN INLAND CONVECTION.
DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL LINGER OVER THE SOUTHEAST FOR MUCH
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH A PATTERN ALOFT THAT WILL PROMOTE
UPWARD MOTION. THE KEY TO WHEN AND WHERE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP WILL BE SURFACE BASED FORCING. BE IT FROM
LINGERING CONVECTIVE BOUNDARIES, DIFFERENTIAL HEATING, LOW LEVEL
SPEED CONVERGENCE OR A WEAK SEA BREEZE. WITH THE SETUP BEING
TYPICAL OF A SUMMERTIME PATTERN EXPECT TO SEE MORE STORMS INLAND
DURING THE DAY WITH A LITTLE MORE ACTION ALONG THE COAST
OVERNIGHT.
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK LOOKS MORE CONDUCIVE TO WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COMPARED TO THE LATER HALF OF THE
WEEK. PRECIPITABLE WATER EXCEEDS 2" FOR A BULK OF THE MON-WED
TIME PERIOD AND AT TIMES IS AMONG THE HIGHEST VALUES RECORDED AT
CHS/MHX. THE COMBINATION OF EXTREME PWAT, DEEP WARM CLOUD LAYER
(13K FT+) AND SLOW STORM MOTIONS CREATES A SETUP PERFECT FOR
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AND MINOR FLOODING. MULTIDAY RAINFALL
TOTALS WELL IN EXCESS OF 5" WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ANY LOCATIONS
THAT EXPERIENCE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF STORM OR TRAINING STORMS.
SLIGHTLY DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR WORKS ITS WAY NORTH AROUND THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK,BRINGING ABOUT A SLIGHT DECREASE IN
COVERAGE. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SHOWING A FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE
NORTH THEN STALLING IN THE REGION, BUT NOT SOLD ON THIS YET.
GUIDANCE WAS SHOWING SOMETHING SIMILAR HAPPENING WITH THE LAST
FRONT, WHICH ENDED UP STALLED TO THE NORTH. SEEMS MORE LIKELY
THE FRONT STALLS BEFORE REACHING THE FORECAST AREA, KEEPING A
MORE CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE.
KEY MESSAGE 2...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR NEW
HANOVER AND PENDER COUNTY BEACHES.
A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS IN EFFECT FOR TODAY FOR NEW HANOVER
AND PENDER COUNTY BEACHES DUE TO 3-4 FT SSE SWELL LEADING TO STRONG
RIP CURRENTS, WITH HOLIDAY CROWDS CONTRIBUTING TO INCREASED
RESCUES BY LIFEGUARDS. MODERATE RIP RISK IN EFFECT FOR BEACHES
SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR. RIP RISK IS EXPECTED TO LOWER TO MODERATE
FOR ALL LOCAL BEACHES TUESDAY, WITH ELEVATED RIP RISK IN PLACE
FOR MOST OF THIS WEEK. THE SSE SWELL REMAINS STRONG ENOUGH FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS THAT STRONG RIPS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE
FOR EAST- AND SOUTHEAST-FACING BEACHES.
AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
SPOTTY SHOWERS WILL MIX THE SURFACE LAYER AND BRIEFLY REDUCE
THE COVERAGE OF LOW CLOUDS IMPACTING OUR INLAND TERMINALS JUST
AFTER SUNRISE. BEYOND SHOWERS, GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED
DUE TO LOW LEVEL MIXING. WITH THESE CONTRIBUTING FACTORS, INLAND
TERMINALS SHOULD BECOME MVFR RATHER QUICKLY. CONFIDENCE IN THE
EXACT DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS LOW THIS MORNING, BUT
EXPECT COVERAGE TO GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE LATE MORNING
WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON. LOW
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN OVERNIGHT.
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS MORNING AT COASTAL
LOCATIONS. SHOWERS WILL BE SHALLOW AND ARE UNLIKELY TO IMPACT
TERMINALS BEYOND THEIR MVFR CIGS. MVFR CIGS WILL GRADUALLY
IMPROVE THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. NOT MUCH
ACTIVITY NEAR THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH A WEAKER SEA BREEZE
THAN PREVIOUS DAYS. MARINE STRATUS RETURNS THIS EVENING,
POSSIBLY LOWERING OVERNIGHT.
EXTENDED FORECAST... LOW STRATUS OR FOG WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH
OF THIS WEEK WITH BETTER CHANCES AT OUR INLAND TERMINALS. AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL IMPACT THE TERMINALS THROUGH MUCH OF THIS
WEEK. A SEA BREEZE NEAR THE COAST WILL KEEP MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY
INLAND THROUGH WEDNESDAY. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MAY REDUCE IN COVERAGE
SOMEWHAT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND SHIFT PREFERENTIALLY TOWARD THE
COASTAL AIRPORTS KILM, KCRE, AND KMYR.
MARINE
THROUGH MONDAY...
SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE TODAY. A FEW GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS. SEAS 3-4 FEET IN THE NEARSHORE
WATERS, AND 4-6 FEET IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS. PRIMARY SWELL OUT
OF THE SSE AT 7 SECONDS IN ADDITION TO A 1-3 FEET ENE SWELL
MIXED IN. WITH THE GULF STREAM WELL INTO THE MARINE ZONES,
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE
WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING AND TONIGHT.
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
BERMUDA HIGH WILL MAINTAIN SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH AT LEAST
THU. SOME INDICATIONS OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THU NIGHT INTO
FRI, BUT THE LAST BACKDOOR COLD FRONT FAILED TO REACH THE AREA
AND IT SEEMS PLAUSIBLE THIS ONE WILL TOO. A NORTHEAST TO EAST
WIND IS SHOWN DEVELOPING THU NIGHT AND CONTINUING FRI, BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS LOW AND SEEMS MORE LIKELY RIDGING AND
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 10-15 KT
WITH AFTERNOON ENHANCEMENT WHILE THE BERMUDA HIGH IS IN PLACE.
EXCEPTION WILL BE OUT NEAR 60 NM WHERE WINDS ON THE HIGH END OF
THE 15-20 KT RANGE WILL BE POSSIBLE THU IF THE FRONT IS ABLE TO
PUSH INTO THE REGION. SEAS 3-5 FT WITH OCCASIONAL 6 FT OUT NEAR
60 NM.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NCZ106-108.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...ILM
KEY MESSAGES...ILM
DISCUSSION...ILM
AVIATION...21
MARINE...III/21
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