898
FXUS62 KILM 242336
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
736 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AS OF 745PM...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAFS.
AS OF 204PM...AN INCREASED FIRE DANGER STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED
BASED ON EXPECTED CONDITIONS AND COORDINATION WITH NCFS.
OTHERWISE, THERE ARE NO OTHER MAJOR CHANGES FROM THE CURRENT
FORECAST THINKING. OTHERWISE, THE AVIATION DISCUSSION HAS BEEN
UPDATED FOR 18Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES, LOW DAYTIME RELATIVE HUMIDITY, AND
VERY LIMITED RAIN CHANCES THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT DROUGHT AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
2) RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL BE TOO LIGHT TO BRING
APPRECIABLE DROUGHT RELEIF.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES, LOW DAYTIME RELATIVE
HUMIDITY, AND VERY LIMITED RAIN CHANCES THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT DROUGHT AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST WITH TONIGHT'S LOWS AND AGAIN
WITH SATURDAY'S HIGHS. NORMAL LOW TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID 50S -
AND LOWS INLAND TONIGHT WILL LIKELY BE IN THE UPPER 50S, LOWER
60S AT THE COAST. WARM ADVECTION AND GOOD INSOLATION WILL LEAD TO
SATURDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM AROUND 80 AT THE BEACHES TO THE
UPPER 80S INLAND. THE MOISTURE PROFILE AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT
IS DRY THROUGH THE COLUMN THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY - WHICH WILL
LIMIT ANY RAINFALL CHANCES DURING THE DAY. THERE COULD BE A
ISOLATED/FEW BRIEF SHOWERS AND T-STORMS DURING SATURDAY AFTERNOON
BUT NOT MUCH IN THE WAY TO ASSIST WITH THE CURRENT DROUGHT
CONDITIONS. THE AFOREMENTIONED DRY CONDITIONS, COUPLED WITH SOME
GUSTY WINDS TOMORROW WILL SUPPORT AN INCREASED FIRE DANGER. A FIRE
DANGER STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED.
KEY MESSAGE 2...RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL BE TOO LIGHT TO BRING
APPRECIABLE DROUGHT RELEIF.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... A COLD FRONT WILL BE COMING THROUGH ON
SUNDAY. IT WILL EVEN BE ACCOMPANIED BY SOME DYNAMICS AS A MODERATE
SHORTWAVE SWINGS THROUGH LATER SUNDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS THAT SHOW
DEEP LAYER SATURATION APPEAR HIGHLY SUSPECT GIVEN THE LACK OF
BACKING TO SW THROUGH THE COLUMN, THE LARGEST VEER BEING SHOWN IS
WSW. THIS ALSO APPLIES TO THE BOUNDARY LAYER WHERE WINDS TO NOT BACK
SUFFICIENTLY FOR GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE REGION. EVEN
SHOULD THE CURRENT QPF PAN OUT NO DROUGHT RELIEF IS ANTICIPATED AS
ONLY THE FINEST OF FUELS WILL SHOW ANY FORM OF MOISTURE RECOVERY.
JUST AS DROUGHTS TAKE MANY WEEKS OF DRY WEATHER TO DEVELOP SO TOO DO
THEY USUALLY NEED A PERIOD OF WETTER WEATHER TO ABATE. TAKE ILM'S 9
MONTH RAINFALL TOTAL FOR EXAMPLE BEING TO JUST 62% OF NORMAL. THE
NEXT COLD FRONT IS DUE AROUND THURSDAY AND LOOKS TO HAVE SIMILAR
MOISTURE CHALLENGES. A FRONT-RUNNING SHORTWAVE SHOULD ALSO BRING
LOW SHOWER COVERAGE ON WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR PREVAILING THROUGH THE PERIOD. A 15-25KT
LLJ WILL KEEP SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS GOING TONIGHT AND THIS, ALONG
WITH DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT, WILL KEEP FOG AT BAY ONCE
AGAIN. ON SATURDAY, A SIMILAR SITUATION TO FRIDAY WILL UNFOLD
WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TO START, FOLLOWED BY SCATTERED TO
BROKEN DAYTIME CUMULUS (WITH BASES >8KFT) ALONG AND INLAND OF
THE SEA BREEZE STARTING IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM SHOULD FORM ONCE AGAIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON, BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE VCTS OR A PROB30
GROUP AT THIS TIME. GUSTY WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP DURING MID-LATE
AFTERNOON BEHIND THE SEA BREEZE AT COASTAL TERMINALS.
EXTENDED FORECAST...SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT COULD
BRING MVFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY.
STRATUS/FOG ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT.
MARINE
THROUGH SATURDAY...THE SWLY PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN PINCHED
THROUGH THIS EVENING RESULTING IN GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS. THE
GRADIENT WILL RELAX OVERNIGHT ALLOWING WINDS TO DECREASE. SWLY FLOW
WILL CONTINUE AGAIN DURING SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. SEAS
WILL RESPOND AS WELL, BECOMING CHOPPY BUT LIKELY REMAINING BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. CONVECTION
SHOULD REMAIN LACKING AS WELL, BUT NEARSHORE INTEREST COULD RUN INTO
AN ISOLATED SHOWER/TSTM ALONG THE RESULTANT SEA BREEZE IN THE
AFTERNOON SATURDAY.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY... A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
WATERS ON SUNDAY BRINGING VEERING FROM SW ALL THE WAY TO N AS A COOL
SEASON-LOOKING WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE NORTH. WINDS
INCREASE A CATEGORY WITH FROPA BUT NO HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED. THE
VEER MAY ALSO KILL OFF WHAT WEAK SWELL ENERGY HAD BEEN IN PLACE WITH
ONLY TWO SHORTER PERIOD WIND WAVES IN THE FORECAST BY MOMDAY. THE
WEDGE WASHES OUT BY TUESDAY ALLOWING FOR A RETURN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW
THAT WILL LIKELY BE CAPPED AT JUST 10KT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...ILM
KEY MESSAGES...MBB/SRP
DISCUSSION...MBB/SRP
AVIATION...ABW
MARINE...MBB/SRP
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