773  
FXUS62 KILM 231910  
AFDILM  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC  
210 PM EST SUN FEB 23 2020  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN IN THE DAYS AHEAD, REACHING TO  
AROUND 70 DEGREES INLAND BY TUESDAY. THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT  
BRINGS A CHANCE OF RAIN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. A MAINLY DRY  
COLD FRONT, IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP OFF THE COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT,  
BRINGING COOLER AIR TO THE REGION THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES TO THE WEST TODAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNING  
TO THE REGION. HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE LOWER 60S  
WHICH IS ABOUT NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. A WARM FRONT WILL  
APPROACH THE REGION TO THE SOUTH, AND THE COMBINATION OF WARMER  
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT WILL KEEP  
TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING IN THE LOWER 40S TONIGHT. MOISTURE FROM  
THE ADVANCING FRONT WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN MONDAY, INCREASING  
FOR THE AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT. LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN IS  
POSSIBLE, PERHAPS HEAVY AT TIMES IN STRONGER SHOWERS. MINOR  
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IN LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS,  
INCLUDING PONDING OF WATER ON AREA ROADWAYS.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
 
 
MOST OF THE PERIOD WILL BE WARM BUT ALSO RAINY AS WE REMAIN AHEAD OF  
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. MID LEVEL FLOW WILL BE WSW AND VORTICITY-  
LADEN SO RAIN CHANCES WILL BE QUITE HIGH BUT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE  
GETS SHUNTED OFFSHORE VERY EARLY IN THE PERIOD LIMITING QPF  
PROSPECTS.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
 
 
TRAILING ENERGY ALOFT NOW KEEPS RAIN IN THE FORECAST BUT AS  
MENTIONED ABOVE THE DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE OFF THE COAST AND RAINFALL  
AMOUNTS PRETTY PALTRY. STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH WEDNESDAY  
EVENING BUT THE UPPER WAVE REMAINS STRONG ENOUGH FOR A FEW LINGERING  
SPRINKLES ACCORDING TO SOME GUIDANCE, WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE. COLD  
AND DRY ADVECTION IS ON TAP FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD  
INCLUDING A SECONDARY PUSH OF CHILLIER AIR FRIDAY NIGHT. THOUGH  
THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW CLIMATOLOGY IT DOES NOT APPEAR TO  
BE QUITE THE MAGNITUDE OF COLD EXPERIENCED THESE LAST FEW DAYS.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
THE VFR TREND THAT WE HAVE SEEN OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS WILL  
CONTINUE THROUGH THE CRITICAL TAF PERIOD ACROSS THE AREA. CEILINGS  
WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO FALL DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS, AS  
A WARM FRONT PUSHES FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. THE POSSIBILITY FOR SHOWERS  
AND MVFR CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN INTRODUCED FOR KFLO AND KLBT TOWARDS  
THE END OF THE 24-HOUR TAF PERIOD.  
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...FRONTAL PASSAGE BRINGS UNSETTLED WEATHER MONDAY,  
TUESDAY, AND POSSIBLY PARTS OF WEDNESDAY. AFTER THAT, WE'LL BE DRY,  
CLEAR AND COLD, SO FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS SHOULDN'T BE AN ISSUE.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
QUIET MARINE CONDITIONS OFFSHORE TODAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE WITH  
WINDS FROM THE SOUTH UNDER 10 KTS AND WAVES BETWEEN 1 AND 2 FEET  
WITH ESE SWELL BETWEEN 10 AND 12 SECONDS. WARM FRONT APPROACHES  
OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS WITH CONTINUED LIGHT WIND/WAVE ACTIVITY AND  
CHANCES FOR A THUNDERSTORM OUT BEYOND 20 NM. AS WARM FRONT MOVES  
WARM AND MOIST AIR OVER THE COLDER COASTAL WATERS, PATCHY SEA FOG  
WILL BECOME A POSSIBILITY WITH AS LOW AS 3 NM, POTENTIALLY LOWER  
VISIBILITY UNDER STRONGER RAIN SHOWERS.  
 
SOUTHWESTERLY PREFRONTAL WIND FIELDS WILL STRENGTHEN TO MINIMAL  
ADVISORY LEVELS LATER TUESDAY. SEAS TOO COULD REACH ADVISORY-WORTHY  
6 FT HEIGHTS. FRONTAL PASSAGE LATER WEDNESDAY WILL TURN FLOW TO A  
MORE OFFSHORE DIRECTION WHILE WIND SPEEDS ALSO ABATE SLIGHTLY; BOTH  
OF WHICH FAVOR A DECREASE IN SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT EVEN AS THE  
WIND SHIFT COULD STEEPEN FACES/SHORTEN DOMINANT PERIOD. WEST WINDS  
WILL REMAIN THROUGH FRIDAY AS COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND  
THE FRONT.  
 

 
   
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
SC...NONE.  
NC...NONE.  
MARINE...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...ILM  
NEAR TERM...MCK  
SHORT TERM...MBB  
LONG TERM...MBB  
AVIATION...IGB  
 
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