059
FXUS62 KILM 071052
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
652 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION DISCUSSION HAS BEEN UPDATED WITH THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.
A HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL INLAND AREAS FOR TODAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED HUMIDITY WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK. THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY PROVIDE SOME TEMPORARY RELIEF FOR SOME
AREAS EACH DAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...THE SYNOPTIC SETUP HAS CHANGED VERY LITTLE IF
ANY FROM MONDAY THUS EXPECTING SIMILAR CONDITIONS. A VERY
PERSISTENT BUT FADING AREA OF CONVECTION THAT MOVED ACROSS THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE CWA MAY DELAY CONVECTION INITIATION
TODAY BUT THEN AGAIN MAY PROVIDE MORE IMPETUS IN A POSSIBLE
EMERGING MCV OR OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IS
EVENTUALLY EXPECTED HOWEVER AND SPC HAS THE CWA IN A MARGINAL
RISK.
SIMILAR THERMAL PROFILES ARE EXPECTED AS WELL IF NOT
SLIGHTLY WARMER WITH A POSSIBLE SLIGHT DELAY IN CONVECTION AND
ONCE AGAIN A HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED. I WOULDN'T BE
SURPRISED TO SEE AN ISOLATED 110 DEGREE READING OR TWO BUT NOT
ENOUGH LONGEVITY OR CONSISTENCY TO STRONGLY CONSIDER AN
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA.
USED PROB 30 GROUPING TO ADDRESS CONVECTION FROM GENERALLY 16Z
THRU 24Z TODAY WITH PERIODIC MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS.
AT THIS TIME ONLY ADDRESSED THE POTENTIAL MVFR ACROSS EACH OF
THE 5 TERMINALS. SW FLOW 5 TO 10 KT TO GENERALLY DOMINATE EXCEPT
THE SEA BREEZE BY LATE THIS MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON WILL BACK
WINDS TO THE SOUTH 10-15 KT G20 KT AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS. AND
SHOULD CARRY THROUGH WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS A 925MB LOW
LEVEL SW JET SETS UP. DEBRIS CONVECTIVE CLOUDS TO DOMINATE
TONIGHT WITH LOW LEVEL STRATUS FRACTUS CLOUDS POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE COASTAL TERMINALS.
EXTENDED FORECAST...GENERALLY VFR. LOW POTENTIAL FOR FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS FROM FOG OR LOW CEILINGS EACH MORNING. THREAT FOR
PERIODIC FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS FROM DAILY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SAT.
MARINE
ITS SUMMER ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WHICH MEANS SOUTHWEST
WINDS OF 10-15 OR AT TIMES 15-20 KNOTS. SIGNIFICANT SEAS OF 2-4
FEET BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A MORE NARROW RANGE OF 3-4 FEET. NOT
MUCH CONVECTION WAS OBSERVED AT OR NEAR THE WATERS MONDAY TO
THREATEN MARINERS AND TODAY WOULD APPEAR SIMILAR.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR NCZ087-096-099-105>110.
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NCZ106-108.
SC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039-054>056-058-059.
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR SCZ054-056.
MARINE...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...DCH/SHK
KEY MESSAGES...SHK
DISCUSSION...SHK
AVIATION...DCH
MARINE...SHK
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