667
FXUS62 KILM 190752
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
352 AM EDT THU SEP 19 2019
SYNOPSIS
AUTUMN-LIKE AIR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY AS CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH. A WARMUP WILL BEGIN SATURDAY BUT
CONDITIONS ARE TO REMAIN DRY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
AN UNCOMMON AIR MASS OF LATE, IN THAT BOTH MIN-T/MAX-T TO HOLD BELOW
CLIMATOLOGY, THE BULK OF LOCALS NOT TO CRACK THE 80 DEGREE MARK
TODAY, AFTER A COOLISH EARLY MORNING. FRESH NE BREEZES TO FAN MILDER
AIR AT THE COAST THIS MORNING, SSTS HOLDING THE HEAT CAPACITY OF A
HOT SUMMER, WITH WARM OCEAN WATERS INSHORE RADIATING BETWEEN 80-83.
SHALLOW MARINE SHOWERS WILL REMAIN PALEGIC, BUT WILL ENCROACH 0-20
NM WATERS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY, A FEW PERHAPS FRINGING GEORGETOWN
BEACHES, BUT PROBABILITIES OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL OVER LAND
INSUFFICIENT AND TOO SPARSE TO ADVERTISE WET PAVEMENTS THIS PERIOD.
52-56 INLAND DAYBREAK FRIDAY, 57-64 NEAR THE COAST IS COOL, BUT WELL
REMOVED FROM MIN-T RECORDS. PLENTY SUNSHINE MINUTES IN THE OFFERING
THIS PERIOD, COMPLIMENTING THE CANADIAN AIR MASS IN DECENT
PAIRING.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS
WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND. PLENTY OF SUBSIDENCE
AND DRY AIR THROUGH THE COLUMN WILL INSURE A RAIN FREE PERIOD.
WITH COOL OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S INLAND TO AROUND 60 CLOSER
TO THE BEACHES. LARGE DIURNAL SWINGS WILL TAKE PLACE DUE TO MORE
IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING AND BRIGHT SUNSHINE IN THE AFTERNOON
WITH SAT HIGHS BETWEEN 80 AND 85 MOST PLACES.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE SLIPS SLOWLY OFF THE COAST AS IT EXTENDS BACK OVER
THE SOUTHEAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL PRODUCE AN ON
SHORE FLOW HELPING TO BRING DEWPOINT TEMPS UP A BIT. THIS
SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO OVERNIGHT LOWS REACHING
BACK UP TO NORMAL. MID TO UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH A DRY FRONT
THROUGH ON TUES WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN BEHIND IT
THROUGH MID WEEK. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME PASSING CLOUDS,
CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE A RAIN FREE PERIOD INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. GFS SHOWS POTENTIAL FOR LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO MOVE
IN FROM THE WEST, BUT NOT AGREEMENT WITH ALL MODELS. OVERALL,
EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE MOST DAYS WITH WARMING AIR MASS AND
TEMPS REACHING ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN
THE 60S.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR. NE GUSTS BETWEEN 17-21 KNOTS BETWEEN 13Z-23Z SHOULD BE
EXPECTED.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR.
MARINE
CHOPPY AND SWELLY, ROUGH AND UNDULATING, DANGEROUS FOR SMALL CRAFT
RIGS PERIOD AS UNPREDICTABLE AND UNWELCOMING WAVES COURSE THROUGH
OUR 0-20 NM WATERS, AS SUCH, SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FLAGS REMAIN
FLYING. IMPROVING SEAS WILL BECOME NOTICEABLE FRIDAY, SETTLING INTO
THE WEEKEND, ALTHOUGH LONGER WAVE-PERIOD BACK-SWELL APT TO LINGER
FROM HUMBERTO, BUT STEEPNESS NOT PROBLEMATIC. THE WIND-SEA ELEMENT
TO REMAIN MINIMAL BY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND, SMOOTHING THE SEA
SURFACE, REDUCING HULL-SMACKING.
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD FRI NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND WILL MAINTAIN
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WITH AN ONSHORE RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING
INTO THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND. WINDS WILL COME AROUND
FURTHER TO A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW MON INTO TUES AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NW. OVERALL, EXPECT LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
WITH SEAS DROPPING OFF THROUGH SAT, REMAINING BETWEEN 2 AND 4 FT
THROUGH MON.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH
THIS EVENING FOR SCZ054-056.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
EVENING FOR SCZ054-056.
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH
THIS EVENING FOR NCZ106-108.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
EVENING FOR NCZ106-108-110.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-
256.
SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...MJC
MARINE...MJC/RGZ
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