057
FXUS62 KILM 170434
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1234 AM EDT WED JUL 17 2019
SYNOPSIS
HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS RIDGING
FROM HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED WELL OFFSHORE FROM THE SOUTHEAST
U.S. COAST, EXTENDS INLAND ACROSS FLORIDA. GENERAL TROFFING
WILL ALSO PERSIST ACROSS THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS INTO NEXT WEEK.
WEAK IMPULSES ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN THE TROF THU INTO FRI AND
AGAIN MON INTO TUE. THE DAILY TROFFING AND INLAND PROGRESSING
SEA BREEZE WILL BOTH AID SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
EACH DAY. THE IMPULSES ALOFT WILL FURTHER AID CONVECTION BOTH IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 845 PM TUESDAY...ISOLATED CONVECTION THIS AFTN/EVENING HAS
DISSIPATED. WILL DEAL WITH THINNING CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT, MAINLY NORTH OF THE NC-SC BORDER. BUT OVERALL,
BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE ACROSS LOCATIONS
THAT SAW TSRA. BUT FOR THE MOST PART, WILL STICK WITH
PERSISTENCE WHICH KEEPS FOG AT BAY. SFC DEWPOINTS RUNNING
SLIGHTLY HIER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS WHICH MEANS ANOTHER STICKY
NIGHT AHEAD OF US. S-SW WINDS GENERALLY 2(INLAND) TO 4(COAST)
MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM BOTTOMING OUT.
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AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF TODAY AND AGAIN TOMORROW AFTN. THE COMBINATION
OF TEMPS IN THE 90S AND DEWPOINT TEMPS WELL INTO THE 70S WILL
PRODUCE HEAT INDICES OVER 105 IN MANY PLACES. HEAT ILLNESSES
ARE POSSIBLE FOR THOSE SPENDING TIME OUTDOORS DURING WED AFTN.
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PROVIDED
A BIT OF RELIEF FROM HEAT, BUT OVERALL, HEAT INDICES WERE ONCE
AGAIN UP TO 107 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON. THE HEAT WILL CONTINUE
AS MID TO UPPER RIDGE RUNS UP THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST. THIS RIDGE
WILL GET NUDGED SOUTH AND EAST LATE WED AS TROUGH APPROACHES
FROM THE W-NW. THIS TROUGH IS THE REMAINS OF TROPICAL SYSTEM
ONCE NAMED BARRY. MOST OF THE ENHANCED ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS TROUGH HEADING OUR WAY, WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA ON
WED. OVERALL, HOT AND HUMID AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE WITH
ANOTHER DAY OF MAINLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCT CONVECTION EXPECTED
ON WED, MAINLY FOCUSED ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY AND
FARTHER INLAND ALONG THERMAL TROUGH. MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT WED WITH TROUGH MOVING EAST OVER THE CAROLINAS. TEMPS
BOTH TONIGHT AND WED NIGHT WILL REMAIN IN THE MID 70S TO NEAR
80.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...ESSENTIALLY A PERSISTENCE SUMMERTIME
FORECAST WITH A MORE PRONOUNCED RIDGE TO THE WEST KINDA
TRANSITIONING TO A MORE FLAT PATTERN LATER. AT THE SURFACE, THE
PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL BECOME A LITTLE BETTER DEFINED IN TIME.
OVERALL, THERE IS REALLY NO FEATURE TO ENHANCE POPS OTHER THAN
THE SLIGHTLY LOWERING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS AND THE PIEDMONT TROUGH.
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES REMAIN PEGGED IN THE MIDDLE 90S YET
ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THURSDAY.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...A LETHARGIC MID LEVEL PATTERN, VERY
TYPICAL FOR MID TO LATE JULY WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. IT DOES
APPEAR HOWEVER THAT A WEAKNESS IN RESPECTIVE MID LEVEL RIDGE'S
TO THE EAST AND WEST DEVELOPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. THIS ALLOWS
A LITTLE MORE CONDUCIVE PATTERN FOR MOSTLY DIURNAL CONVECTION
ALTHOUGH ACTIVITY DEVELOPING OFFSHORE AND MEANDERING TO THE
COAST IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS IS FAIR GAME AS WELL. VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE. THE MEX GFS NUMBERS SHOW THE
POSSIBILITY OF AN AIR MASS CHANGE LATE IN THE PERIOD BUT IT
SEEMS UNLIKELY.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 06Z...VFR FOR AREA TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON
HOURS IN THE VICINITY OF AIRPORTS WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
DEVELOPMENT, BUT LOW CONFIDENCE ON ACTUAL LOCATIONS OF AFTERNOON
STORMS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OUTSIDE ANY ISOLATED
TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION THE FIRST PART OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK.
MARINE
TONIGHT THRU WED NIGHT:
AS OF 830 PM TUESDAY...RELAXED SFC PG WILL BEGIN A SLOW
TIGHTENING PHASE LATE TONIGHT THRU WED NIGHT. S-SW WINDS 5 KT OR
LESS TO INCREASE TO 5 TO 10 KT BY DAYBREAK WED, AND TO AROUND 15
KT DURING WED. WITH AN ACTIVE SEA BREEZE, COULD SEE WINDS 15 TO
20 KT WITHIN 10 NM OF THE COAST WED AFTN AND EVENING.
SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE GOVERNED BY 3 TO 5 SECOND PERIOD WIND
DRIVEN WAVES. AN UNDERLYING SMALL 1 TO 1.5 FOOT ESE SWELL WILL
CONTINUE THRU THIS PERIOD. DO NOT EXPECT CONVECTION OVERNIGHT.
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AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE, BUT WILL
KICK UP A BIT FROM 10 KT OR LESS UP TO 10 TO 15 KTS AS TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATE WED. EXPECT SEAS LESS THAN 2 FT TO
INCREASE SLIGHTLY TO 3 TO 4 FT WED NIGHT IN SOUTHERLY PUSH.
AFTERNOON GUSTS WILL DEVELOP UP TO 20 KTS, MAINLY NEAR SHORE IN
AFTN SEA BREEZE. A SLIGHTLY LONGER PERIOD SE SWELL AROUND 10
SECONDS WILL CONTINUE TO MIX IN WITH SHORTER PERIOD WIND WAVES.
THU THRU SUN:
STEADY STATE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE
WITH SIGNIFICANT SEAS OF 2-4 FEET. THERE MAY BE SOME OVERNIGHT
ENHANCEMENT OF WIND SPEEDS AND IN FACT WOULD EXPECT IT THIS
WEEKEND VIA A MORE PRONOUNCED PIEDMONT TROUGH.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039-054>056-058-059.
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 6 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH
THIS EVENING FOR SCZ054-056.
NC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR NCZ087-096-099-105>110.
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 6 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH
THIS EVENING FOR NCZ106-108.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...DCH/RGZ
NEAR TERM...DCH/RGZ
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...MCK
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