022
FXUS62 KILM 282335
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
735 PM EDT TUE APR 28 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE LOWER CAPE FEAR
RIVER, INCLUDING DOWNTOWN WILMINGTON FOR THIS EVENING'S HIGH
TIDE.
UPDATED THE AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS ON THE WAY WITH WEDNESDAY'S
FRONT.
- 2) FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS A GOOD SHOT OF RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS ON THE WAY WITH
WEDNESDAY'S FRONT.
LINGERING SHOWERS FROM CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US THIS
AFTERNOON WILL APPROACH THE CAROLINAS ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. SHOWERS
WILL IMPACT THE REGION FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE FOR INLAND AREAS AND
SLIGHTLY LATER NEAR THE COAST. LIGHT RAIN WILL EXIT THE REGION BY
LATE MORNING. THIS CLEARING SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME WEAK DESTABILIZATION
DURING THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. WEAK DESTABILIZATION,
LOWERING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS, AND WEAK FORCING COULD PRODUCE A FEW
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE HIGHEST OVER OUR NC AREAS. DRY AIR IN THE
UPPER LEVELS COULD PROMOTE A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS IN ANY STORMS
THAT DEVELOP.
KEY MESSAGE 2
FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS A GOOD SHOT OF RAIN FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
BROAD LOW PRESSURE FORMS NEAR THE GA/FL LINE LATE FRIDAY AND PUSHES
INTO THE ATLANTIC, STRENGTHENING CONSIDERABLY THROUGH SATURDAY.
MEANWHILE, ABUNDANT SHORTWAVE ENERGY SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION FROM
WEST TO EAST, AND MOISTURE KICKS UP SIGNIFICANTLY UP TO 500 MB, DUE
TO INCREASED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.
ALL THESE INGREDIENTS LOOK TO BE COMING TOGETHER TO PROVIDE SOME OF
THE BEST RAIN COVERAGE WE'VE SEEN IN MONTHS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD
END UP BEING AROUND 0.50-1.00" BY SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS. STILL HAVE A VERY LONG WAY TO GO TO EXTINGUISH THIS
DROUGHT, BUT IT'S POTENTIALLY THE BEST WE'VE SEEN IN AWHILE. VERY
LITTLE INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ONE, MEANING THAT STRATIFORM
PROCESSES WILL DOMINATE OVER CONVECTIVE PROCESSES. NOT EXPECTING
MUCH THUNDER AS A RESULT, IF AT ALL.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT 6HRS OF THE TAF PERIOD.
RESTRICTIONS WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY MORNING AS RAIN COMES IN
FROM THE NW. THIS WILL BRING WIDESPREAD MVFR NEAR IFR CIGS AND
DIMINISHED VSBYS IN RAIN, MAINLY MVFR BUT IFR WILL BE MORE
POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS.
RESTRICTIONS SHOULD CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE EVENING,
RESTRICTIONS LASTING LONGEST FOR NC TERMINALS, POSSIBLY TO THE
END OF THE 24HR TAF PERIOD.
EXTENDED FORECAST...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH
SHOWERS BRINGING RESTRICTIONS THROUGH SATURDAY. VFR RETURNS ON
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MARINE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LIGHT WINDS THIS EVENING WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE
OVERNIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY AS
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. SHOWERS IN THE MORNING WILL PUSH
NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING. AS THE MAIN COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY, SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS COULD
IMPACT THE REGION.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE BREEZE OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST VEERS TO THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE WATERS. SEAS AT 3-5 FT ALONG THE COASTAL
WATERS DROP DOWN TOWARDS 2-3 FT BY THURSDAY MORNING, WHILE THE
OFFSHORE WATERS GO FROM 5-6 FT DOWN TOWARDS 3-5 FT. WINDS COME DOWN
TOWARDS A GENTLE BREEZE THROUGHOUT THE DAY THURSDAY, REMAINING THAT
WAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT, GRADUALLY VEERING TO THE ENE. SEAS OVER
THE OFFSHORE WATERS COME DOWN VERY SLIGHTLY TOWARDS 3-4 FT. BY LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT, THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM SHOWS UP, BACKING THE WINDS TO
THE NORTH THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. MODERATE BREEZE BUILDS IN BY
SATURDAY MORNING, AND SEAS INCREASE UP TO 3-5 FT ALONG THE COASTAL
WATERS, 6-8 FT ALONG THE OFFSHORE WATERS.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ107.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...ILM
KEY MESSAGES...IGB/21
DISCUSSION...IGB/21
AVIATION...LEW
MARINE...IGB/21
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