382
FXUS62 KILM 242315
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
715 PM EDT MON AUG 24 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA.
- 2) TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL NORMS MUCH OF THIS WEEK,
WITH MORE ORGANIZED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS DUE BY LATER
THIS WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA.
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE AREA WILL PROVIDE A SURFACE
FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AIDED BY A BROAD UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE AREA ALOFT. THE SEABREEZE HAS ALLOWED FOR CONVECTION TO
KICKOFF THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND THE FORCING
ALOFT WILL ACT TO EXACERBATE STORMS AIDED BY THEIR OUTFLOWS. A
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS EXISTS OVER EASTERN PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
KEY MESSAGE 2
TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL NORMS MUCH OF
THIS WEEK, WITH MORE ORGANIZED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS DUE BY
LATER THIS WEEK.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN RATHER EVEN KEELED THIS WEEK. HIGHS EACH
DAY HOVER SOMEWHERE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. ONLY A FEW
ISOLATED SPOTS MAY HIT HEAT INDICES IN THE TRIPLE DIGITS AT TIMES,
AND THANKFULLY, NO ADVISORY-LEVEL HEAT EXPECTED THIS WEEK.
A MORE ORGANIZED FRONTAL SYSTEM COMES INTO PLAY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY,
WHICH MAY STALL OUT NEAR THE COAST OVER THE WEEKEND. AS A RESULT,
MORE APPRECIABLE RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LOOK TO COME TO
FRUITION. PRECIPITABLE WATER (PWAT) VALUES HIT 2 INCHES AGAIN.
THE DROUGHT CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA, AND THIS MAY AFFORD MORE
OPPORTUNITIES TO KEEP CHIPPING AWAY AT IT.
AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS TO START OFF THE 00Z TAF PERIOD. VERY ISOLATED
CONVECTION OVER 00-02Z COULD BRING LOW CIGS/VSBYS, BUT THE
CHANCES ARE TOO LOW FOR INCLUSION IN THE TAFS. ALSO LOWER
CHANCES FOR PATCHY FOG/STRATUS TONIGHT COMPARED TO PREVIOUS
NIGHTS WITH LOWER DEWPOINT AIR MOVING IN. DRIER FOR TUESDAY WITH
CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS.
EXTENDED FORECAST...MAINLY VFR WITH EARLY MORNING FOG AND
STRATUS POSSIBLE EACH MORNING. THE AREAL COVERAGE OF STORMS IS
PROJECTED TO INCREASE AT ALL TERMINALS FROM THE MID TO LATTER
PARTS OF THE WEEK. THIS COULD LEAD TO RESTRICTIONS FROM TIME TO
TIME IN/NEAR ANY OF THE ROUNDS OF CONVECTION THAT DEVELOP.
MARINE
THROUGH FRIDAY...A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE COAST THIS
AFTERNOON WITH S-SWLY FLOW PREVAILING ACROSS THE ADJACENT
WATERS. THIS BOUNDARY MAY BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY ALONG THE
COAST WITH LIGHT/VARIABLE CONDITIONS NEAR THE FRONT AND
GENERALLY LIGHT S-SWLY TO ITS EAST AND SOUTH. ANY CONVECTION HAS
THE POTENTIAL TO CREATE LOCALLY HIGHER WIND/WAVE CONDITIONS.
THE OLD BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY DRIFT BACK TO THE NORTH BY MID-WEEK
WITH AN INCREASE IN S-SWLY FLOW THAT WILL PERSIST THROUGH
FRIDAY. OVERALL, SEAS WILL BE IN THE 2-4 FT RANGE OFFSHORE, AND
1-3 ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. HOWEVER, LOCALLY ENHANCED
WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED AT TIMES AS A RESULT OF CONVECTION.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...MAS
KEY MESSAGES...31
DISCUSSION...31
AVIATION...MAS
MARINE...31
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