503
FXUS62 KILM 151056
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
656 AM EDT FRI MAY 15 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ADDED A KEY MESSAGE FOR COASTAL FLOODING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) THE THREAT FOR HAZARDOUS WEATHER REMAINS VERY LOW THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
2) POTENTIAL FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING DURING EVENING HIGH TIDES
ALONG THE LOWER CAPE FEAR RIVER AND AT THE BEACHES WILL INCREASE
DURING THE NEXT FEW EVENINGS AS WE APPROACH THE NEW MOON ON
SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: THE THREAT FOR HAZARDOUS WEATHER REMAINS VERY LOW
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD WHICH
ISN'T GOOD NEWS AS FAR AS THE DROUGHT IS CONCERNED. DRY W/NW
FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH TEMPS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL. WARMER TEMPS ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH MID NEXT
WEEK. FORTUNATELY, MOISTURE LEVELS SHOULDN'T BE HIGH ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT MAX HEAT INDICES MUCH HIGHER THAN MID 90S SO NO CONCERN
FOR REACHING HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA (105 DEGREES). MORE
TROUGHING/MOISTURE ON THU SHOULD BRING THE BEST RAIN CHANCES OF
THE PERIOD.
KEY MESSAGE 2: POTENTIAL FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING DURING EVENING
HIGH TIDES ALONG THE LOWER CAPE FEAR RIVER AND AT THE BEACHES WILL
INCREASE DURING THE NEXT FEW EVENINGS AS WE APPROACH THE NEW MOON ON
SATURDAY.
WATER LEVELS ALONG THE LOWER CAPE FEAR RIVER NEAR DOWNTOWN
WILMINGTON AND AT THE BEACHES SHOULD REACH JUST ABOVE MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING THRESHOLDS DURING THE EVENING HIGH TIDES OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. THE BEACHES WILL BE CENTERED WITHIN A COUPLE OF HOURS ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE HIGH TIDE WHICH TAKES PLACE AROUND 7 PM THIS
EVENING AND 8 PM SATURDAY EVENING. MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ALONG
THE LOWER CAPE FEAR RIVER WILL TAKE PLACE CENTERED AROUND THE
HIGH TIDE WHICH TAKES PLACE AROUND 9 PM THIS EVENING AND 10 PM
SATURDAY EVENING.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH TODAY. NW
WINDS WILL REMAIN 5 TO 10 KTS INTO EARLY TODAY. BY THIS
AFTERNOON, MAINLY AFTER 16Z, WINDS WILL BACK TO THE W AND THEN
SW THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SYNOPTIC HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE. EXPECT
SKC THROUGH THE PERIOD.
EXTENDED FORECAST... PREDOMINANTLY VFR THROUGH TUESDAY. PERHAPS
THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG TOWARD SUNRISE BEGINNING SUNDAY
MORNING, BUT CONFIDENCE IS QUITE LOW.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT... STIFF NORTHERLY WINDS, WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS OR
SO, INTO EARLY TODAY WILL BECOME SOMEWHAT VARIABLE TOWARD AFTERNOON
AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD. ONCE THE HIGH
SITUATES ITSELF FARTHER OFFSHORE BY THIS EVENING, EXPECT A SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP AROUND 5 TO 10 KTS.
EXPECT SEAS 3 TO 4 FT OUT 20 NM, WHILE OFFSHORE, OUT 60 NM, WILL BE
4 TO 5 FT INTO EARLY TODAY. AS WINDS SUBSIDE LATER TODAY, SEAS WILL
COME DOWN TO 3 FT OR LESS.
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT... HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CONDITIONS
STAYING WELL SHY OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS AS HIGH
PRESSURE GENERALLY PREVAILS RESULTING IN WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENTS. SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS LOOK TO STAY ONLY 2-3 FT.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 6 PM TO 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
NCZ106-108-110.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EDT
TONIGHT FOR NCZ107.
SC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 6 PM TO 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
SCZ054-056.
MARINE...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...ILM
KEY MESSAGES...ILM
DISCUSSION...ILM
AVIATION...RGZ
MARINE...RJB/RGZ
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