634
FXUS62 KILM 122336
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
636 PM EST FRI DEC 12 2025
SYNOPSIS
MILD CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH ON SUNDAY WITH LIGHT SHOWERS, BRINGING
DANGEROUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM UP NEXT WEEK AS THE CENTER OF
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
THE MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO DEAMPLIFY THROUGH THE
PERIOD ALTHOUGH CHANGES THE SENSIBLE WEATHER ELEMENTS ARE
DELIBERATE. LOW TO MIDDLE CLOUDS WILL STREAM OFF TO THE EAST
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING LEAVING BEHIND A WEAK PRESSURE
PATTERN. SOME FOG IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AS WELL. SATURDAY
PROMISES TO BE A VERY NICE DAY AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC AIR MASS WITH
HIGHS ECLIPSING THE 60 DEGREE MARK MOST UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
*ARCTIC AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT, PRODUCING
DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS NEAR EXTREME COLD CRITERIA FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.*
SATURDAY NIGHT KICKS OFF AN ATYPICAL DIURNAL PATTERN, WITH
TEMPS RISING DURING THE NIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT AND DECREASING
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. WAA AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL
INCREASE TEMPS FROM MID TO UPPER 40S EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT TO
AROUND 50F BY SUNDAY MORNING. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING, THOUGH WITH MOISTURE LIMITED TO
BELOW 700MB, QPF IS FAIRLY LOW WITH EXPECTED SCATTERED SHOWERS.
HIGH TEMPS SUNDAY WILL DEPEND ON THE SPEED OF THE FRONT, WITH
CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS LATE SUNDAY MORNING IN THE LOW 50S NEAR
I-95 AND UPPER 50S NEAR THE COAST BEFORE TEMPERATURES AND
DEWPOINTS START TO PLUMMET IN THE AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL ALSO BE QUITE GUSTY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH
THE CAA, AND GUSTS OF 25-30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE. A 500MB TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED PVA MOVES ACROSS SUNDAY EVENING, BUT WITH
VIRTUALLY NO MOISTURE TO WORK WITH THERE MIGHT NOT EVEN BE ANY
CLOUDS WITH ITS PASSAGE. STRONG CAA WILL BRING LOW TEMPS IN THE
UPPER TEENS SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH LOW 20S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COASTLINE.
THE PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE THE COMBINATION OF THE LOW TEMPS
AND THE LINGERING WINDS, AS PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT
BETWEEN EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST AND FRONT/LOW WELL
OFFSHORE. WITH WIND GUSTS OF 15-20 MPH POTENTIALLY LINGERING
THROUGH DAYBREAK MONDAY, THIS WOULD PRODUCE WIND CHILLS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS FOR MOST OF SUNDAY NIGHT. DUE TO THE TIMING
(HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND), THE SIGNIFICANT DROP IN
TEMPERATURES, AND OUR FORECAST ONLY BEING A COUPLE OF DEGREES
ABOVE WARNING CRITERIA, WE HAVE ISSUED AN EXTREME COLD WATCH FOR
OUR CWA FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL EITHER BE REPLACED WITH AN
ADVISORY OR, IF WINDS LOOK STRONGER OR TEMPS GET COLDER, A
WARNING DURING A FUTURE FORECAST PACKAGE. REGARDLESS OF WHETHER
A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY OR AN EXTREME COLD WARNING IS ISSUED,
DANGEROUS COLD AIR IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AND PRECAUTIONS
SHOULD BE TAKEN.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
UNUSUALLY COLD WEATHER LINGERS INTO MONDAY WITH FORECASTED HIGH
TEMPS BARELY REACHING 40F IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD, MONDAY NIGHT WILL SEE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS. THOUGH WITH WEAKER CAA AND NO WIND, IT WON'T BE AS
COLD AS SUNDAY NIGHT. LOWS TUESDAY MORNING ARE FORECASTED AROUND
20F, SO STILL QUITE COLD. HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE LATE
TUESDAY AND WE'LL SEE A WARMING TREND THROUGHOUT THE WEEK, WITH
SEASONABLE WEATHER EXPECTED WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS THURSDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, THOUGH NOT AS STRONG AS THIS WEEKEND'S
FRONT.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR SHOULD PREVAIL OVER THE COMING 24 HOURS. AT KILM AND KFLO
THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY THAT MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP
LATE TONIGHT AS INCREASING DEWPOINTS MAY ALLOW PATCHY FOG OR
EVEN SOME SCATTERED VERY LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP. TIMING APPEARS
TO BE AFTER 06Z, THEN DISSIPATING QUICKLY AT SUNRISE.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY
NIGHT. SURFACE WIND GUSTS OVER 30 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT BEHIND A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD.
MARINE
THROUGH SATURDAY...ESSENTIALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT ALTHOUGH THE STAMPED DIRECTION WILL BE
NORTH THEN WEST. SATURDAY WILL SEE A SLIGHTLY BETTER DEFINED
SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF CHANGEABLE CONDITIONS THAT
WILL OCCUR LATER IN THE WEEKEND. OVERALL SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL
BE 1-2 FEET.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL QUICKLY VEER TO NORTHERLIES SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A
STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE COAST. STRONG CAA BEHIND THE
FRONT, WITH AN EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR WEST, WILL
INCREASE WINDS TO 20-25 KTS SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING WITH GALE-FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE, ALONG WITH SEAS OF 4-6
FT. WINDS AND SEAS QUICKLY IMPROVE DURING THE DAY MONDAY AS THE
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARD. BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY, WITH WSW WINDS 5-10 KTS AND SEAS AROUND 2 FT.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
FOR NCZ087-096-099-105>110.
SC...EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
FOR SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039-054>056-058-059.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...SHK
SHORT TERM...VAO
LONG TERM...VAO
AVIATION...TRA
MARINE...SHK/VAO
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