154
FXUS62 KILM 201018
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
518 AM EST FRI FEB 20 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION DISCUSSION HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR 12Z TAFS. SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT FOR PATCHY DENSE FOG IMPACTING COASTAL AREAS
HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE BASED ON OBSERVATIONS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) NEAR-RECORD TO RECORD HIGH TEMPS ARE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY.
2) VERY LOW RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS SAT, MAINLY EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON.
3) WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS SUN NIGHT THRU TUE NIGHT, POSSIBLY
NEAR RECORD LOWS MON NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: NEAR-RECORD TO RECORD HIGH TEMPS ARE FORECAST
FOR FRIDAY.
INCREASED WAA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL LEAD TO WARMER CONDITIONS
THAN YESTERDAY, WITH AREAS INLAND NEARING 80 AND THE BEACHES NEARING
70. THIS WILL THREATEN RECORD HIGHS FOR KLBT WITH A POSSIBLE TIE AT
KFLO, WITH ALL RECORDS IN THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER AND AFTERNOON SHOWERS, BUT WE'LL
GET PRETTY CLOSE REGARDLESS INLAND.
KEY MESSAGE 2: VERY LOW RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS SAT, MAINLY EARLY TO
MID AFTERNOON.
THERE IS A VERY LOW RISK FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS ON SATURDAY,
ESPECIALLY DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN SC AS
THE AREA BRIEFLY GETS INTO A WEAK WARM SECTOR OF AN APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE MAIN THREATS ARE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL
BUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO CAN'T COMPLETELY BE RULED OUT GIVEN THE
PLACEMENT OF THE WARM FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. OTHERWISE, THE STORM
SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME MUCH-NEEDED RAINFALL WITH GENERALLY ABOUT 0.5-
0.75" BUT LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER 1" ARE POSSIBLE.
KEY MESSAGE 3: WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS SUN NIGHT THRU TUE NIGHT,
POSSIBLY NEAR RECORD LOWS MON NIGHT.
A MUCH COLDER AIR MASS WILL BUILD IN BEHIND A DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM
EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. HIGHS MON/TUE WILL
GENERALLY BE NEAR 50 WITH LOWS GENERALLY AROUND 30. COULD EVEN BE
NEAR RECORD LOWS AT FLORENCE/N. MYRTLE BEACH MON NIGHT (SEE CLIMATE
SECTION BELOW FOR DETAILS). WIND CHILLS SHOULD BE WELL DOWN INTO THE
20S EACH NIGHT, ESPECIALLY SUN/MON NIGHTS. WIND CHILLS INTO THE
UPPER TEENS ARE EVEN POSSIBLE BUT THE CHANCE FOR REACHING 15 DEGREES
OR COLDER (I.E., COLD WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA) IS VERY LOW.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
CURRENT THOUGHTS FOR DAYTIME SEA FOG IS THAT KCRE COULD BE
IMPACTED, BUT LOW CONFIDENCE AS FOG MAY STICK TO THE CAPE FEAR
AREA NOT MOVING INLAND MUCH. OTHERWISE, SW WINDS WILL GUST
25-30 KTS TODAY AHEAD OF A FRONT. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL MOVE
THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON WITH VSBYS AND CIGS POSSIBLY DIPPING TO
MVFR IN SHOWERS. BRIEF CLEARING IS POSSIBLE ~00Z BEFORE THE
FRONT LOOKS TO RETREAT BACK TO THE NORTH WITH RAIN CHANCES
INCREASING AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AND TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD.
EXTENDED FORECAST...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS LIKELY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND DUE TO A STALLED FRONT AND PASSING LOW PRESSURE. CIGS
AND VSBYS WILL BE DIMINISHED WITH THE THREAT OF FOG AND LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAINFALL. VFR SHOULD RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT...
INCREASING SW WINDS AND SEAS AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
LEAD TO SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY BEFORE THE FRONT
DIPS SOUTH, STALLING THERE. SPEEDS WILL DROP TO NEAR 10 KTS
TONIGHT WITH SEAS NEAR 3 FT.
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
A COLD FRONT STALLED IN THE AREA SAT WILL LEAD TO A PERIOD OF
VARIABLE WINDS WITH SPEEDS 10 KT OR LESS. HOWEVER, THE FRONT IS
PULLED AWAYS FROM THE COAST BY LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFFSHORE SUN
MORNING. THIS WILL SET UP A 24 TO 36 HOUR PERIOD OF STRONG
NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW. SPEEDS WILL LIKELY REQUIRE A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY BEGINNING LATER SUN AND LASTING THROUGH MUCH OF
MON AND POSSIBLY INTO MON NIGHT. GRADIENT STARTS TO RELAX LATE
MON NIGHT AS THE DEEPENING LOW MOVES NORTHEAST AND THE CENTER OF
THE HIGH BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST MOVES CLOSER.
OFFSHORE FLOW ON TUE WILL BE UNDER 10 KT. SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FT
OUTSIDE OF A 24 HOUR WINDOW STARTING LATE SUN WHERE STRONG
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN SEAS UNDER 2 FT NEAR SHORE AND OVER
6 FT CLOSER TO 20 NM.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGHS FOR 2/20/2026...
WILMINGTON NC - KILM (81 LAST SET IN 1991)
LUMBERTON NC - KLBT (80 LAST SET IN 2018)
N. MYRTLE BEACH SC - KCRE (77 LAST SET IN 1949)
FLORENCE SC - KFLO (83 LAST SET IN 2014)
RECORD LOWS FOR 2/24/2026...
WILMINGTON NC - KILM (18 LAST SET IN 1901)
LUMBERTON NC - KLBT (18 LAST SET IN 1978)
N. MYRTLE BEACH SC - KCRE (26 LAST SET IN 2009)
FLORENCE SC - KFLO (24 LAST SET IN 1968)
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ250-
252-254-256.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ250-
252-254-256.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...ILM
KEY MESSAGES...RJB/LEW
DISCUSSION...RJB/LEW
AVIATION...LEW
MARINE...III/LEW
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