495
FXUS62 KILM 251117
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
617 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2025
SYNOPSIS
A WARM FRONT WILL BRING ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LOW RAIN
CHANCES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
BY THURSDAY BRINGING COLD, DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY.
EXPECT WELL- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS
THANKSGIVING DAY. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST EARLY NEXT
WEEK BRINGING NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES.
UPDATE
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
WEAK COASTAL TROUGH JUST OFFSHORE WILL MOVE ONSHORE THEN LIFT
NORTHWEST AROUND DAYBREAK. THE TROUGH MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY SOME
LIGHT SPRINKLES OR PERHAPS EVEN A SHOWER ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST
WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF SUNRISE, BUT MEASURABLE RAINFALL WILL BE IN
SHORT SUPPLY. SOMEWHAT BETTER RAIN CHANCES ARRIVE LATER IN THE DAY
AS A WEAK WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. ISENTROPIC LIFT
AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT IS LIMITED GIVEN THE PASSAGE OF THE COASTAL
TROUGH, BUT AFTERNOON TIMING WILL ALLOW FOR A COUPLE HUNDRED J/KG
OF SBCAPE. DESPITE LIMITED MOISTURE THIS MORNING, PRECIPITABLE WATER
IS CURRENTLY 80-90% OF NORMAL, THE PASSAGE OF THE COASTAL TROUGH AND
THEN THE LATE DAY WARM FRONT WILL LEAD TO A SURGE OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE. PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASES TO MORE THAN 200% OF NORMAL
BY MID AFTERNOON AND STAYS AOA 200% OF NORMAL THROUGH TONIGHT.
COVERAGE OF ANY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS WILL NOT BE MUCH MORE
THAN SCATTERED. WHILE THERE IS SOME SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY AND A
BIT OF WEAK CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT, LAPSE RATES
ARE MARGINAL AT BEST. REMAINS OF THE MID-LEVEL CAP FROM THE PREVIOUS
DAY LINGER INTO THE EVENING AND WHILE THE FLOW ALOFT IS WEAKLY
DIVERGENT, THERE IS NO REAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY OR JET STREAK TO KICK
ANYTHING OFF. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS WILL TRY TO MOVE IN FROM THE
WEST LATE TONIGHT, AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT, BUT COVERAGE WILL AGAIN BE
LIMITED. PLENTY OF MOISTURE AROUND, BUT THE LACK OF DYNAMICS AND
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY AFTER MIDNIGHT DOES NOT BODE WELL FOR RAIN
CHANCES. BEST BET WILL BE INLAND, CLOSE TO THE COLD FRONT, BUT EVEN
HERE SHOWERS WILL STRUGGLE. STRONG WARM ADVECTION LEADS TO
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL TODAY AND TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
A SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS
WILL SUPPORT SOME LIGHT SHOWERS INLAND, MOVING TOWARDS THE SE NC
COAST THROUGH THE DAY BEFORE DRY AIR TAKES OVER FOR THE REST OF THE
PERIOD. SW WINDS COULD GUST NEAR 30 MPH DURING THE DAY. THE FRONT AS
WELL AS A COUPLE WAVES OF CAA ALOFT WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY AND
THEN AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS COULD LEAD TO A WINDIER FORECAST
THAN CURRENTLY SHOWN AS THE JET STREAM SETTLES OVERHEAD AT THE SAME
TIME. TEMPS WILL FALL BY ABOUT 10 DEGREES WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY,
WITH SUB-FREEZING LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
COLD, DRY CONDITIONS WILL LINGER THROUGH SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
SITS IN THE AREA. THE HIGH WILL START TO MOVE OFF TO THE N/NE SUNDAY
PUTTING US IN ITS RETURN FLOW, A POSSIBLE COASTAL FRONT FORMING.
TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER TO NEAR NORMAL WITH SHOWER CHANCES
INCREASING.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
WIDESPREAD VFR THIS MORNING WITH LIGHT EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS AT
ALL TERMINALS. COASTAL TROUGH JUST OFFSHORE WILL MOVE ONSHORE
WITH WINDS VEERING TO SOUTHEAST LATER THIS MORNING. SPEEDS
AROUND 10 KT WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON AS
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT MIX TO THE SURFACE.
VFR CONTINUES INLAND WHILE ALONG THE COAST THERE IS POTENTIAL
FOR MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITY AS WEAK SHOWERS AHEAD OF A WARM
FRONT MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. ENVIRONMENT IS NOT SUPPORTIVE
OF WIDESPREAD COVERAGE, THUS HAVE PROB30 GROUP FOR COASTAL
TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN PRESENCE OF
SHOWERS IS LOW. VFR RETURNS FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM
FRONT AND LASTS WELL PAST MIDNIGHT.
BROKEN LINE OF WEAK SHOWERS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MAY RESULT IN
MVFR CEILINGS AT INLAND TERMINALS AS EARLY AS 10Z, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS QUITE LOW. MORE LIKELY THAT MVFR CONDITIONS
DEVELOP AFTER 12Z. LOW LEVEL WINDSHEAR AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAY
ALSO BE A PROBLEM AFTER MIDNIGHT, SOMETHING TO WATCH.
EXTENDED FORECAST...BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. VFR RETURNS LATE WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUES THROUGH
SATURDAY.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT...EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST
LATER THIS MORNING AS COASTAL TROUGH MOVES INLAND. NOT MUCH
CHANGE TO THE GRADIENT TODAY WITH WINDS 10-15 KT. WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE WATERS LATE IN THE DAY WITH FLOW BEHIND
THE FRONT BECOMING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP
SLIGHTLY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW A SOLID 15 KT
OVERNIGHT. SEAS 2-3 FT TODAY BUILD TO 3-4 FT TONIGHT. THIS
MORNING'S DOMINANT NORTHEAST WIND WAVE WILL BE REPLACED BY A
SOUTHEAST WIND WAVE LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AN INCREASED PG WILL LEAD TO SW WINDS
GUSTING ~25 KTS, RESULTING IN A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAY AGAIN BE POSSIBLE AS
THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY, WINDS BECOMING OFFSHORE. A
STRONG PG WILL LINGER INTO FRIDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE LEADS TO
BETTER CONDITIONS INTO THE WEEKEND. HIGHEST WAVEHEIGHTS WILL BE
WEDNESDAY AT 3-5 FT, OTHERWISE SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FT THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
AMZ250-252.
SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...III
NEAR TERM...III
SHORT TERM...LEW
LONG TERM...LEW
AVIATION...III
MARINE...III/LEW
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