477
FXUS62 KILM 190712
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
312 AM EDT FRI JUN 19 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 06Z TERMINAL FORECAST UPDATED BELOW.
ADDED KEY MESSAGE FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS NEXT WEEK. GALE
WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGES
1) AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM POSSIBLE THIS MORNING.
2) GALE WARNING FOR ALL WATERS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
3) TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM POSSIBLE INTO TODAY.
A SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF ARTHUR WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH
THE SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE WAVE/LOW COUPLED WITH STRONG
DIVERGENCE ALOFT WILL LEAD TO DEVELOPMENT OF DEEPER CONVECTION
THIS MORNING. CURRENT RADAR SHOWS AN INITIAL LINE OF STORMS AND
THEN AREA OF MAINLY STRATIFORM PCP WITH EMBEDDED CONVECTION
ACROSS CENTRAL SC WITH ANOTHER LINE OF STORMS FOLLOWING BEHIND
IT THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING. STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH
SHORTWAVE AND REMNANTS OF ARTHUR SHOULD BE MOVING OFF THE COAST
BY EARLY AFTERNOON, BUT A BIT MORE CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE
ALIGNED WITH COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH LATE THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT.
THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL REMAIN WELL MIXED, ALLOWING FOR SURFACING
OF STRONGER WINDS ALOFT, ESPECIALLY WITHIN STRONGER CONVECTION.
LOW LEVEL JET OF 35 TO 50 KT WILL NOT HAVE MUCH TROUBLE MIXING
TO THE SURFACE, SUGGESTING CONVECTION WITH ANY RESPECTABLE
UPDRAFT WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND. THE
GOOD NEWS IS THE TIMING EARLY TODAY WILL LIMIT SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...GALE WARNING FOR ALL WATERS STARTING LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
SEE MARINE SECTION BELOW.
KEY MESSAGE 3...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR MUCH
OF THE NEXT WEEK.
TEMPS WILL BE BACK IN THE 90S OVER THE MUCH OF THE AREA COMBINING
WITH INCREASING DEWPOINT TEMPS BRINGING HEAT INDEX VALUES ABOVE
100 BEGINNING MON FOR A PORTION OF THE AREA AND SPOTS NEAR OR
ABOVE HEAT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS POSSIBLE SOME AFTERNOONS. EXPECT
DAILY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS BACK IN THE FORECAST NEXT WEEK
IN A MORE TYPICAL SOUTHERLY FLOW OF WARMER AND MOISTER AIR AND
THE CLOUDS AND PCP WILL IMPACT THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THUNDERSTORMS RIGHT ON THE DOORSTEP OF FLO AND THEN WILL FOLLOW
AT LBT AROUND 07Z UNTIL 09-10Z WITH MAINLY STRATIFORM FOLLOWING
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD MAKE IT TO COASTAL
TERMINALS BY 08-09Z LASTING UNTIL 11-13Z. ANOTHER LINE OF STORMS
WILL REACH THE INLAND TERMINALS MID TO LATE MORNING AND THE
COASTAL TERMINALS LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON. EXPECT
CEILINGS IN THE MVFR TO IFR RANGE WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS WITH
GUSTY SW WINDS. BY EARLY AFTERNOON CEILINGS WILL BREAK UP WITH
SCATTERED STRATO CU AND SOME MID TO HIGH CLOUDS. THESE STORMS
ARE IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SHORTWAVE ALOFT AND REMNANTS OF
ARTHUR. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN CLOSER TO 00Z THIS EVENING
AND COULD SEE AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO AHEAD OF IT WITH
POSSIBILITY OF BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. DID NOT INCLUDE ANY
MENTION IN TERMINALS AS OF NOW.
SW WINDS AT THE SFC HAVE DIMINISHED TO UNDER 10 KTS MOST
TERMINALS BUT SHOULD REMAIN JUST HIGH ENOUGH TO PREVENT ANY LLWS
BUT EXPECT WINDS ABOVE THE SFC TO BE UP TO 25 KTS OR SO.
EXTENDED FORECAST...VFR RETURNS SATURDAY AND CONTINUES THROUGH
MONDAY. MAY SEE MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS IN TSTMS COME MON NIGHT
INTO TUES ASSOCIATED WITH NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM.
MARINE
OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE AND THE REMNANTS OF ARTHUR ALONG WITH A COLD
FRONT WILL ENHANCE THE GRADIENT WITH INCREASING SW TO W WINDS
THROUGH TODAY. A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT WITH GUSTS TO 40
KTS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL START OUT IN THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY RANGE THROUGH THIS MORNING, BUT WILL RAMP UP THIS
AFTERNOON AS WINDS INCREASE WITH APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT.
GALES PROBABLY WON'T OCCUR OVER MOST OF THE WATERS, AND WHAT IS
LIKELY TO OCCUR WILL BE IN THE FORM OF GALE GUSTS, OUTSIDE OF
THE CONVECTION THAT MOVES OFFSHORE BY THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH
THE TROPICAL REMNANTS OF ARTHUR WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF TODAY, THE APPROACHING FRONT WILL KEEP
SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND 20 KT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. COLD FRONT
WILL DROP SOUTH OF THE WATERS LATE TONIGHT WITH NORTHERLY FLOW
SETTING UP FOR EARLY SAT BEFORE COMING BACK AROUND TO SOUTHERLY
BY THE END OF THE DAY AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD. SOUTHWEST
FLOW CONTINUES MON AND TUE WITH DIURNAL ENHANCEMENT INCREASING
SPEEDS TO 15-20 KT.
SEAS IN EXCESS OF 6 FT WILL REMAIN SIGNIFICANT UNTIL OFFSHORE
FLOW DEVELOPS FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT LATE TONIGHT.
SEAS DRASTICALLY IMPROVE FOR THE WEEKEND BEFORE STARTING TO
BUILD SLOWLY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN
SETS UP.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 6 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH
THIS EVENING FOR NCZ106-108.
HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS FROM 6 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
EVENING FOR NCZ110.
SC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 6 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH
THIS EVENING FOR SCZ056.
HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS FROM 6 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
EVENING FOR SCZ054.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ250-252-254-
256-280-284.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...RGZ
KEY MESSAGES...RGZ
DISCUSSION...RGZ
AVIATION...RGZ
MARINE...RGZ
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