413
FXUS62 KILM 161055
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
655 AM EDT MON MAR 16 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATE AS OF 7 AM EDT... AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR THE
12Z TAF.
UPDATE AS OF 2 AM EDT... A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
COASTAL AREAS FOR TODAY. A FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER TODAY THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.
2) SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A MODERATE RISK
(LEVEL 4 OUT OF 5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER TODAY THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING. THE PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND TORNADOES.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL EXPAND IN COVERAGE THIS MORNING.
INCREASING SHEAR AND STRONG LOW LEVELS WINDS WILL PRODUCE AN
IMMEDIATE CONCERN FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS THAT
DEVELOP. INSTABILITY WILL GRADUALLY BUILD THROUGH THE LATE MORNING,
PEAKING DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON. HREF PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE
WEATHER INCREASE RAPIDLY AFTER 15Z WHICH COINCIDES WITH AN INCREASE
IN INSTABILITY. SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGRADING THE COVERAGE OF
SEVERE WEATHER DUE TO A COOL MARINE LAYER ADVECTING ONSHORE BY
STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW. CONFIDENCE IN SEVERE WEATHER IS LOWER AT THE
COAST.
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN IN PRE-FRONTAL
CONVECTION TODAY. INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAK, BUT STRONG SHEAR COULD
ALLOW FOR A FEW STORMS TO DEVELOP A BRIEF SUPERCELLULAR STRUCTURE.
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE REGIMES.
HREF PROBABILITIES FAVOR SEVERE WEATHER EAST OF US-701 THROUGH MUCH
OF THE DAY. INLAND AREAS WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER
AFTER 3 PM AND JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THIS EVENING.
TIMING OF THE MAIN SQUALL LINE HAS SLOWED SLIGHTLY IN THE LATEST
SUITE OF MODEL GUIDANCE. IMPACTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SQUALL ARE MOST
LIKELY TO OCCUR BETWEEN 6 PM AND 7 PM INLAND. BETWEEN 7 PM AND 8 PM
AT THE COAST. WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LINE WILL BE TIGHTLY FORCED
AT THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. DAMAGING WIND CONTINUE TO BE THE
PRIMARY CONCERN. AN ISOLATED TORNADO EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS CONVECTION
IS ALSO POSSIBLE.
IN ADDITION TO SEVERE WEATHER, CLEAR-AIR WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE AT TIMES FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. STRONGER WINDS ARE EXPECTED
AT THE COAST DUE TO THE UNOBSTRUCTED SOUTHERLY FETCH. A WIND
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR COASTAL AREAS WHERE WIND GUSTS UP TO 50
MPH ARE POSSIBLE. THE GRAND STRAND AND COASTAL BRUNSWICK COUNTY HAVE
THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING THESE ADVISORY-LEVEL WIND GUSTS PRIOR TO
THE FRONT'S ARRIVAL THIS EVENING.
KEY MESSAGE 2...SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY
NIGHT.
FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
AND A FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED. LIGHT TO CALM WINDS, AN
UNSEASONABLY COLD AIRMASS AND DEEP DRY AIR WILL LEAD TO GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL INCREASE
IN HIGH CLOUD AFTER MIDNIGHT, WHICH COULD HAMPER RADIATIONAL
COOLING IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. STILL CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN MUCH
IF NOT ALL OF THE AREA REACHING FREEZING, BUT HOW FAR BELOW
FREEZING LOWS DROP IS A BIT OF A QUESTION. ANOTHER FREEZE IS
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOWER AND IT MAY BE
CONFINED TO TYPICAL COLDER SPOTS.
AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
MIXED MVFR/VFR FOR THE AREA THIS MORNING, GRADUALLY IMPROVING
TO VFR OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP THIS MORNING AND INCREASE IN STRENGTH AND COVERAGE BY
LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. VFR WILL DOMINATE OUTSIDE OF
CONVECTION. ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT IMPACT LOCAL TERMINALS
WILL HAVE THE CHANCE TO PRODUCE WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50
KNOTS. A FEW GUSTS COULD PEAK NEAR 60 KNOTS. TORNADOES WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF OUR TERMINALS. A STRONG COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING. WINDS SHIFT TO THE
WEST AND NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT THIS EVENING AND MAINTAIN
SOME GUSTINESS OVERNIGHT. STRONG WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH A
LOW LEVEL JET IS LIKELY UNTIL THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION
THIS EVENING.
EXTENDED FORECAST... BREEZY TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. VFR THROUGH
FRIDAY.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT...
STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS SUM UP THE NEXT 24 HOURS QUITE
NICELY. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE TODAY WITH
ENHANCEMENT LIKELY IN THE VICINITY OF DEVELOPING SHOWERS AND
STORMS; STORMS DEVELOP AS EARLY AS THIS MORNING. STRONG WIND
GUSTS AND WATERSPOUTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE WATERS THROUGH THIS
EVENING. WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT
TONIGHT. GALES DEVELOP THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED
FOLLOWING THE GALE WARNING TO ADDRESS GUSTINESS IN COLD AIR
ADVECTION. SEAS WILL GRADUALLY RECOVER LATE TONIGHT INTO
DAYBREAK TUESDAY.
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
WEAKENING OFFSHORE FLOW TUE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST. MAY SEE SOME WINDS PUSHING 20 KT THE FIRST PART OF TUE
MORNING, BUT BY MIDDAY SPEEDS WILL BE 15 KT OR LESS. BRIEF
NORTHERLY SURGE TUE NIGHT MAY KEEP SPEEDS AROUND 15 KT INTO WED
BEFORE GRADIENT COLLAPSES AND SPEEDS DROP TO 10 KT OR LESS
THROUGH FRI. SEAS 3-5 FT TUE MORNING FALL TO 2-4 FT FOR TUE
AFTERNOON AND REMAIN IN THAT RANGE THROUGH FRI.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR NCZ087-096-099-105>110.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ106-108-110.
SC...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039-054>056-058-059.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ054-056.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR AMZ250-
252-254-256.
GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT
FOR AMZ250-252-254-256.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...ILM
KEY MESSAGES...III/21
DISCUSSION...III/21
AVIATION...21
MARINE...III/21
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