271
FXUS62 KILM 220638
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
238 AM EDT MON JUN 22 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO MAJOR CHANGES COMING DOWN THE TRACK FOR THE MAIN FORECAST
PACKAGE. RAIN CHANCES FOR THIS AFTERNOON WERE BROUGHT DOWN
SLIGHTLY. UPDATED THE AVIATION SECTION FOR THE 06Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) ISOLATED STORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON; ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
ISOLATED STORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON; ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE.
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE
ILLINOIS/INDIANA BORDER, ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM
DUE TO ENTER THE CAROLINAS LATE TONIGHT.
PRIOR TO THIS FRONT, RELATIVELY FLAT STEERING FLOW WILL
CONTINUE, IN BETWEEN A FEW WEAK SHORTWAVES. DESPITE PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ABOVE 1.8", DRIER AIR IN THE MID-LEVELS WILL HELP
SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON. SEABREEZE MAY TRY
TO INITIATE A FEW STORMS, WHICH WILL PUSH INLAND FROM THERE.
PLENTY OF INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH, AND THE DCAPE HOVERS AROUND
1200 J/KG, SO ISOLATED STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. OVERALL THOUGH, SEVERE WEATHER ACTIVITY
SHOULD BE DISPLACED TO THE NORTH. HIGHS GET INTO THE LOW-TO-MID
90S INLAND, UPPER 80S AT THE COAST. TRIPLE DIGITS EXPECTED FOR
THE INLAND AREAS, BUT WILL FALL SHORT OF HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA
(105 DEGREES).
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY, BRINGING SOME BETTER
RAIN CHANCES WITH IT, THOUGH LACKLUSTER SHORTWAVE ENERGY WEAKENS
THE SYSTEM. NO DAY IN PARTICULAR THIS WEEK APPEARS TO BE A
WASHOUT, SO DROUGHT RELIEF DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE LIKELY. TRIPLE
DIGIT HEAT INDICES WILL BE IN PLAY FOR MOST OF THIS WEEK, WHERE
HEAT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED BY THE WEEKEND. STILL EXPECTING
BETTER MOISTURE RETURN ON FRIDAY, BRINGING THE BEST RAIN AND
STORM CHANCES OF THE WEEK, BUT FORECAST GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED
DOWNWARD A BIT THIS CYCLE.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
PREDOMINANTLY VFR THROUGH THE 06Z TAF PERIOD. SOME MVFR LOW
STRATUS MAY TRY TO SNEAK IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST NEAR KCRE, KMYR,
AND KFLO, BUT CONFIDENCE ON THAT IDEA IS QUITE LOW. SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS MUCH TOO LOW FOR TEMPO OR PROB30 GROUPS IN THE
TAF. SSW WINDS GUST UP TO 20-22 KTS THIS AFTERNOON, COMING DOWN
AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT...SSW WINDS AT A GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZE WILL
BUILD UP TOWARDS A FRESH BREEZE OUT OF THE SW BY TONIGHT. GUSTS
UP TO 20-23 KTS LIKELY, AND IT WOULDN'T BE SURPRISING IF THEY
SURPASSED 25 KTS AT TIMES. BUT I'M NOT SURE YET IF THE GRADIENT
WINDS WILL BE CONSISTENT ENOUGH TO WARRANT A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY OVER THE NORTHEAST SC WATERS. HOLDING OFF ON THAT IDEA
FOR NOW. SEAS AT 1-2 FT INCREASE WITH THE WIND, UP TO 2-4 FT
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OUT 20 NM, AND 4-5 FT OUT 60 NM.
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...FRESH BREEZE OUT OF THE SW CONTINUES
FOR MUCH OF TUESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT, QUICKLY VEERING THE WINDS TO THE NW AND
THEN NE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING, IMPROVING TO A MODERATE BREEZE.
ONSHORE FLOW BEGINS AGAIN WEDNESDAY EVENING, WITH SEAS IMPROVING
TO 2-3 FT. WINDS VEER TO THE SSW AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY, INCREASING TO A FRESH BREEZE ONCE MORE. SEAS INCREASE
SLIGHTLY TO 3-4 FT.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 6 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH
THIS EVENING FOR NCZ106-108.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...IGB
KEY MESSAGES...IGB
DISCUSSION...IGB
AVIATION...IGB
MARINE...IGB
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