835
FXUS62 KILM 172303
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
703 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR THE 0Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) POTENTIAL RECORD-TYING OR BREAKING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
SATURDAY, WITH FIRE WEATHER HAZARDS CONTINUING.
2) A STRONG COLD FRONT, ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS, AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS, IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE AREA DURING SUNDAY MORNING, BEFORE SHIFTING OFF THE
COAST BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND TO WELL OFFSHORE BY LATE
AFTERNOON. A PERIOD OF SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS
EXPECTED TO FOLLOW SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...POTENTIAL RECORD-TYING OR BREAKING TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED SATURDAY, WITH FIRE WEATHER HAZARDS CONTINUING.
THE SUBTLE FRONT (SUCH THAT IT IS) IS STARTING TO PUSH OFFSHORE
AS OF THIS TYPING (2 PM EDT). ACCOMPANYING SHORTWAVE ALOFT WILL
FOLLOW WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. CALM TONIGHT, WITH LOWS IN
THE LOW-TO-MID 60S.
MID-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS UP SATURDAY, ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES
TO GET JUST A LITTLE BIT WARMER. RECORD-TYING OR BREAKING HIGH
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY INLAND. HERE'S A LOOK AT THE
CURRENT RECORDS ACROSS THE AREA FOR APRIL 18:
WILMINGTON, NC (KILM): 93 IN 1976
NORTH MYRTLE BEACH, SC (KCRE): 89 IN 1967
FLORENCE, SC (KFLO): 93 IN 1981
LUMBERTON, NC (KLBT): 91 IN 1941
A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE BUILDS INTO THE COLUMN SATURDAY,
ALLOWING FOR A FEW CUMULUS CLOUDS TO POP UP AT 6000-8000 FT.
OTHER THAN THAT, EXTREMELY DRY WEATHER CONTINUES. DIURNAL
MIXING LOOKS TO GO UP TOWARDS 7000-8000 FT, WHICH BRINGS THE
DEWPOINTS DOWN AT THE SURFACE. ULTIMATELY, THIS BRINGS THE
AFTERNOON RH VALUES DOWN TO 25%.
REGARDLESS OF WHERE THE RH IS, SEVERE TO EXTREME DROUGHT
CONTINUES ACROSS THE CAROLINAS, WITH A BURN BAN IN EFFECT UNTIL
FURTHER NOTICE FOR EVERYONE. SATURDAY WON'T BE PARTICULARLY
BREEZY, BUT EVERYTHING OUTSIDE IS A TINDER BOX AT THIS POINT.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A STRONG COLD FRONT, ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED
SHOWERS, AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS, IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM
WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA DURING SUNDAY MORNING, BEFORE
SHIFTING OFF THE COAST BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND TO WELL OFFSHORE
BY LATE AFTERNOON. A PERIOD OF SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED TO FOLLOW SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT.
H5 TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. ON SUNDAY WILL DRIVE
A SFC COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA, AND OFF THE MAINLAND
TO WELL OFFSHORE DURING SUNDAY AFTERNOON. POPS FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN IN THE 20 TO 40
PERCENT RANGE. ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE GIVEN THE
WEAK TSTORM PARAMETERS PROGGED. LIMITED MOISTURE WILL ALSO
RESULT IN QPF LESS THAN 0.10 INCHES, WHICH THIS MAY EVEN BE TOO
HIGH. THIS WILL NOT EVEN SATISFY THE THIRST OF THE VEGETATION OF
THE ONGOING GROWING SEASON. IN ESSENCE, THE SEVERE/EXTREME
DROUGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NC AND NORTHEAST SC WILL
CONTINUE TO WORSEN.
IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE, CAA UNDER GUSTY NW-NNE
WINDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA SUN AFTERNOON AND NIGHT BECOMING
NEUTRAL ADVECTION MON. THE END RESULT WILL SEE BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES OVERSPREADING THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING
THRU TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS TIME OF YEAR, NORMAL HIGHS ARE IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S AND NORMAL LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. THE
SHELTERED/COLD SPOTS COULD DROP DOWN INTO THE UPPER 30S FOR LOWS
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING GIVEN WINDS POSSIBLY DECOUPLING UP TO
SEVERAL HRS PRIOR TO SUNRISE. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND BACK
ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY THRU THE END OF THE UPCOMING WORK-WEEK.
AND WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS WITH NO PCPN IN THE FORECAST.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR. CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS SATURDAY, WITH
INCREASED GUSTS AT COASTAL TERMINALS AS STRONG SEA BREEZE MOVES
THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON. FEW TO SCATTERED DIURNAL CUMULUS
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AROUND 6KFT-9KFT.
EXTENDED FORECAST...VFR THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT COULD GUST TO
25 KNOTS SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
MARINE
THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE BREEZE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AT
10-15 KTS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. SEAS AT 2-4 FT OUT 20 NM
FROM SHORE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING, WITH 4-5 FT SEAS
POSSIBLE UP TO 60 NM FROM SHORE. OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, SEAS
DECREASE TO 2-3 FT EVERYWHERE.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...LOOKING AT SW WINDS
INCREASING SAT NIGHT INTO SUN FROM BOTH A LLJET WITH 25-30 KT
SW WINDS JUST OFF THE DECK UP TO 925MB AND A TIGHTENING SFC PG
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST.
EXPANDING/PIVOTING UPPER TROF EXTENDING FROM HUDSON BAY WILL
HELP DRIVE THE COLD FRONT TO THE CAROLINA COASTS BY MIDDAY SUN
AND TO WELL OFFSHORE BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. WILL SEE
SCATTERED CONVECTION ACCOMPANYING IT, FURTHER BLOSSOMING
AS THE ACTIVITY REACHES THE WARMER ATL WATERS. LOOKING AT A
DECENT WINDSHIFT, FROM SW-NW THEN TO THE NNE-NE AT SCA
THRESHOLDS SUN NIGHT AS SFC RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST
BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT. THE GRADIENT RELAXES DURING
MON WITH WINDS DIMINISHING BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. THE UPPER
TROF'S AXIS WILL SWING ACROSS THE AREA LATE MON, ALLOWING FOR A
SECONDARY CFP MONDAY EVENING ACCOMPANIED WITH LESS FANFARE THAN
ITS PREDECESSOR. SFC HIGH TO FOLLOW AND RIDGE IN FROM THE NORTH
MON NIGHT THRU TUE.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR NCZ107.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...ILM
KEY MESSAGES...DCH/IGB
DISCUSSION...DCH/IGB
AVIATION...VAO
MARINE...DCH/IGB
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