783
FXUS62 KILM 010952
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
550 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DANGEROUS HEAT EXPECTED LATE THIS WEEK THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK,
LIKELY REACHING NEAR RECORD LEVELS INLAND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...DANGEROUS HEAT EXPECTED LATE THIS WEEK THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK, LIKELY REACHING NEAR RECORD LEVELS INLAND.
MID-UPPER HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID-SOUTH WILL GRADUALLY
PIVOT NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH MIDWEEK AND BECOME ANOMALOUSLY STRONG
(WITH 700MB, 500MB, AND 200MB HEIGHTS AT OR ABOVE THE 99.5TH
PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR) BEFORE WEAKENING AS IT THEN
SETTLES OVER THE CAROLINAS LATE THIS WEEK AND GRADUALLY MOVES INTO
THE ATLANTIC OVER THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER, THE LOW-MID LEVEL AIR
MASS SHOULD REMAIN ANOMOLOUSLY WARM ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS INLAND AREAS OF SE NC & NE SC WHERE IT WILL
LIKELY BE NEAR RECORD LEVELS. GIVEN THE PLACEMENT OF THIS UPPER
HIGH AND DEEP- LAYER FLOW MAINLY BETWEEN NORTH AND EAST UNTIL
THIS WEEKEND, PLENTY OF DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE IS ANTICIPATED
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA, LEADING TO VIRTUALLY NO CHANCE FOR POP-UP
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO OFFER RELIEF FROM THE HEAT DURING THE
WORK WEEK AND THEN ONLY A LOW CHANCE THIS WEEKEND. NEVERTHELESS,
THE DRY AIR ALOFT MIXING DOWN EACH AFTERNOON WILL HELP TO LOWER
DEW POINTS AND KEEP HEAT INDEX VALUES VERY NEAR THE AIR
TEMPERATURES AT LEAST THRU THURSDAY, EXCEPT AROUND THE SEA
BREEZE WHERE OCEAN TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW-MID 80S WILL LOCALLY
RAISE DEW POINTS AND HEAT INDEX VALUES. THE SPECIFICS ON WHEN
AND WHERE HEAT INDEX VALUES REACH HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA
(105-109 DEG F FOR 2+ HOURS) AND/OR EXTREME HEAT WARNING
CRITERIA (110+ DEG F) ARE HARD TO PIN DOWN AS AIR TEMPERATURES
AND DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE REFINED IN THE
COMING DAYS. AS OF NOW, IT LOOKS LIKE HEAT ADVISORIES ARE
POSSIBLE STARTING FRIDAY WITH EXTREME HEAT WARNINGS EVEN
POSSIBLE STARTING SATURDAY (MAINLY FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES).
REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT HEAT INDICES THOUGH, EVERYONE IS
ENCOURAGED TO PLAN AHEAD FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF DANGEROUSLY
HOT CONDITIONS AND TAKE PROPER PRECAUTIONS, ESPECIALLY GIVEN
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND ABUNDANCE OF OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES. YOU CAN
VISIT OUR HEAT WEBPAGE (WEATHER.GOV/ILM/HEAT) FOR THE LATEST
HEAT FORECAST/SAFETY INFO TO HELP YOU PLAN AND STAY SAFE.
AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR WITH FM GROUPS ONLY NEEDED TO ADDRESS SLIGHT VEERING ALONG THE
COAST WITH THE SEA BREEZE.
06Z THU THRU SUN...MOSTLY VFR WITH GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED
AS HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS THRU THE WEEKEND KEEPING RAIN
COVERAGE VERY MINIMAL. THE BETTER CHANCE FOR RESTRICTIONS WILL
LIKELY COME FROM LOW CLOUDS/FOG EACH LATE NIGHT/MORNING.
MARINE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...EXPECT MORE EASTERLY WINDS THROUGH THURSDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES IN FROM THE NORTHEAST. WINDS SHOULD THEN
SHIFT MORE SOUTHERLY FRIDAY AS A WEAK TROUGH/LOW TO THE SOUTH
SHIFTS INLAND AND ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE REGAINS CONTROL. EXPECT
STRONGER SEA BREEZES STARTING LATE WEEK AS TEMPERATURES RISE
WELL ABOVE NORMAL INLAND. HOWEVER, CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW HEADLINE THRESHOLDS THRU THE PERIOD.
CLIMATE
HIGH TEMPERATURES AWAY FROM THE COAST ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR RECORD
LEVELS LATE THIS WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. BELOW ARE THE DAILY RECORDS
FOR JULY 3-7...
FRIDAY, JULY 3:
KILM: 97 / 1954
KLBT: 100 / 2019
KCRE: 95 / 1998
KFLO: 102 / 1954
SATURDAY, JULY 4:
KILM: 100 / 1993
KLBT: 101 / 1905
KCRE: 97 / 1942
KFLO: 102 / 1993
SUNDAY, JULY 5:
KILM: 100 / 1902
KLBT: 103 / 2024
KCRE: 97 / 1996
KFLO: 103 / 2024
MONDAY, JULY 6:
KILM: 100 / 1902
KLBT: 102 / 2024
KCRE: 101 / 1990
KFLO: 103 / 2024
TUESDAY, JULY 7:
KILM: 102 / 1977
KLBT: 102 / 2010
KCRE: 99 / 1953
KFLO: 104 / 1954
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS FROM 6 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
EVENING FOR NCZ108.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
KEY MESSAGES...RJB
DISCUSSION...RJB/ABW
AVIATION...MBB
MARINE...RJB
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page