793
FXUS62 KILM 190510
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
110 AM EDT THU MAR 19 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
KEY MESSAGES
1)SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH PATCHY
FROST POSSIBLE IN NORTHERN AREAS AND TRADITIONAL COLD SPOTS FRIDAY
MORNING.
2)TEMPERATURES AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL LATE THIS WEEK
DROP TO AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF
A COLD FRONT MONDAY.
NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS 10-15 KTS EARLY TODAY
WILL WEAKEN TO 10 KTS OR LESS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER MOVES OVERHEAD. SEAS LINGER IN THE 2-4 FT RANGE
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT, COMBINATION OF 9 SEC E SWELL AND NE WIND
WAVE.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH TONIGHT,
WITH PATCHY FROST POSSIBLE IN NORTHERN AREAS AND TRADITIONAL COLD
SPOTS FRIDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY IN
THE LOW 60S, JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. ONE MORE COOL NIGHT IN
STORE TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD AND CALM WINDS. LOWS IN
THE UPPER 30S/NEAR 40F FOR MOST OF THE AREA. TRADITIONAL COLD SPOTS
AND NORTHERN PARTS OF BLADEN AND PENDER COUNTIES COULD SEE PATCHY
FROST FRIDAY MORNING.
KEY MESSAGE 2...TEMPERATURES AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
LATE THIS WEEK DROP TO AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOLLOWING
THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT MONDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF ELONGATED SURFACE HIGH
COMBINED WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND WEAK MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WILL
LEAD TO TEMPERATURES AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THIS
WEEKEND. THE WARMTH WILL PERSIST INTO MON, ALTHOUGH INCREASING
CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAY KNOCK A FEW DEGREES OFF HIGHS.
FRONT ARRIVES LATE MON AND MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY SOME WEAK
CONVECTION. CONFIDENCE IN ANY CONVECTION/RAIN IS LIMITED AT THIS
POINT. THE PARENT LOW IS WEAK, A CLIPPER SYSTEM CROSSING THE
MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST, AND DEEPER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF
THE FRONT PREVENTS ANY NOTEWORTHY MOISTURE RETURN. GIVEN THE
WARM NATURE OF THE AIR MASS AND AT LEAST SOME ENHANCED BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE, CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW WEAK SHOWERS. THE BIGGER
STORY WILL BE THE BIG TEMP SWING PRE AND POST FRONT. HIGHS IN
THE LOW TO MID 80S AND LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S THIS
WEEKEND SWITCHING TO HIGHS STRUGGLING TO HIT 60 TUE AND LOWS
AROUND 40 TUE NIGHT.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR. FEW PASSING HIGH CLOUDS. LIGHT WINDS, GENERALLY 5 KTS OR
LESS, COURTESY OF HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD.
EXTENDED FORECAST...VFR
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT...
NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS 10-15 KTS EARLY TODAY WILL WEAKEN TO 10
KTS OR LESS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
MOVES OVERHEAD. SEAS LINGER IN THE 2-4 FT RANGE THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT, COMBINATION OF 9 SEC E SWELL AND NE WIND WAVE.
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
BENIGN CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SURFACE RIDGE AXIS OVER
THE WATERS FRI SHIFTS SOUTHEAST FOR SAT, RESULTING IN WEAK
SOUTHERLY FLOW. GRADIENT REMAINS POORLY DEFINED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH INLAND HEATING ACCOUNTING FOR A SLIGHT BUMP IN
SPEEDS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP
MON AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST, INCREASING
SPEEDS TO A SOLID 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2-3 FT WITH
OCCASIONAL 4 FT THROUGH THE WEEKEND INCREASE TO 3-5 FT MON.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ087-096-099-
107-109.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ105.
SC...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR SCZ017-023-024-
032-033-039-055-058-059.
MARINE...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...ILM
KEY MESSAGES...III/VAO
DISCUSSION...III/VAO
AVIATION...VAO
MARINE...III/VAO
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