530
FXUS62 KILM 061032
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
632 AM EDT TUE OCT 6 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING. AVIATION
DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 12Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) NO IMPACTFUL WEATHER THIS WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE KEEPING THE
REGION DRY AND SEASONABLE.
2) UNSETTLED WEATHER MAY RETURN THIS WEEKEND BUT CONFIDENCE IS
LOW.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...NO IMPACTFUL WEATHER THIS WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE
KEEPING THE REGION DRY AND SEASONABLE.
MODIFIED CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH OF THE AREA UNDER
BROAD MID-LEVEL TROUGHING WILL KEEP THE REGION DRY THROUGH AT LEAST
FRI. TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TODAY RETURN NEAR NORMAL
WED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 2...UNSETTLED WEATHER MAY RETURN THIS WEEKEND BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MAY INCREASE THIS WEEKEND, BUT
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH. THE AREA OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT
HIGHLIGHTED BY NHC IN THE GULF WILL PLAY A KEY ROLE IN DETERMINING
HOW MUCH RAIN THE LOCAL AREA RECEIVES AND WHEN THIS OCCURS.
REGARDLESS OF ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM (WHICH ALL OF THE
RELIABLE GUIDANCE CURRENTLY SHOWS REMAINING WELL WEST OF THE AREA),
THERE WILL BE A LARGE SWATH OF TROPICAL MOISTURE SPREADING NORTH
OVER THE SOUTHEAST LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS MOISTURE, COUPLED WITH THE
REMAINS OF A SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVING NORTH INTO THE REGION COULD
LEAD TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND. HOWEVER, THE LACK OF
CONFIDENCE IN DETAILS MAKES THE DAY 5-7 FORECAST EXTREMELY DIFFICULT
AT THIS TIME AND CHANGES, POSSIBLY SIGNIFICANT, SHOULD BE
ANTICIPATED.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ALL SITES ARE CURRENTLY VFR, ALTHOUGH, LBT HAS BEEN FLIRTING
WITH A BIT OF MVFR FOG. ANY MVFR WILL DISSIPATE WITH THE ARRIVAL
OF THE SURGE. OVERALL, VFR WILL CONTINUE WITH A FEW PASSING
MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NE AND WILL BE A
BIT GUSTY, ESPECIALLY AT COASTAL TERMINALS. EXPECT GRADIENT
WINDS OUT OF THE NORTH-NORTHEAST FROM MID-MORNING THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A LITTLE
BIT OF HEATING/MIXING. ENHANCED WINDS WILL START TO WEAKEN LATE
AFTERNOON WITH LOSS OF HEATING.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY EVENING, OUTSIDE OF
ANY PATCHY MORNING FOG. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS MAY RETURN SATURDAY, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
MARINE
NORTHEAST FLOW STARTING TO INCREASE BASED ON LATEST BUOY REPORTS.
THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH SPEEDS PEAKING AROUND 25 KT
TODAY BEFORE GRADUALLY STARTING TO DECREASE LATER TONIGHT INTO WED.
SOME GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WATERS
FROM 20-60NM, BUT NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT A GALE WARNING FOR ANY ZONE.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS. THE
CURRENT END TIME OF 3AM EDT WED MAY BE A BIT GENEROUS AND IT'S
POSSIBLE THE HAZARD IS CANCELLED EARLY.
NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES ALL WEEK, BUT WITH A RELAXED GRADIENT
ALLOWING SPEEDS TO DROP UNDER 15 KT BY WED NIGHT AND TO 10 KT OR
LESS THU/FRI. LOW CONFIDENCE FOR THE WEEKEND, BUT THERE IS POTENTIAL
FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF HEADLINES WITH ENHANCEMENT OF NORTHEAST FLOW. A
LOT WILL DEPEND ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM IN THE GULF;
SOMETHING TO WATCH IN SUBSEQUENT FORECAST UPDATES.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NCZ106-108.
SC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR SCZ054-056.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ250-252-
254-256.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...ILM
KEY MESSAGES...III
DISCUSSION...III
AVIATION...RGZ
MARINE...III
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