249
FXUS62 KILM 040005
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
705 PM EST FRI DEC 3 2021
SYNOPSIS
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. DRY
AND COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY BEFORE SHOWER CHANCES
INCREASE WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER FRONT.
UPDATE
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO THE FORECAST TONIGHT.
CIRRUS OVER GEORGIA AND ALABAMA WILL SLIDE OVER THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT, BUT WITH LITTLE IMPACT ON RADIATIONAL COOLING. THE
BIGGER CONCERN IS AN INFLUX OF MOISTURE AT AND BELOW 1000 FEET
AGL LATE TONIGHT ALONG THE COAST THAT COULD LEAD TO PATCHY FOG
AND POSSIBLY SOME LOW STRATUS CLOUDS. NAM DEWPOINTS ARE
SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER THAN THE GFS, AND IT'S NOT CERTAIN JUST HOW
LIKELY FOG MAY BE AT THIS POINT. THE 00Z SOUNDING FROM CHS WILL
HELP SHED SOME LIGHT ON THIS HOPEFULLY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
WEAK BOUNDARY DROPPING INTO AREA MAKING WINDS MORE VARIABLE,
BUT LIGHT INTO THIS EVENING. THIS BOUNDARY WILL MEANDER NEAR THE
AREA, BUT THE MAIN FEATURE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY WILL BE HIGH
PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WITH MAINLY LIGHT SE TO S FLOW
BECOMING MORE SW ON SAT AS HIGH MOVE FARTHER OFF THE COAST AND
WEAK FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. OVERALL, UNSEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE FOR SATURDAY. THE WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE
COMPONENT TO THE FLOW WILL HELP PUSH TEMPS WELL INTO THE 70S TO
NEAR 80. MAY APPROACH RECORDS WHICH WOULD BE 80 FOR ILM, 77 FOR
CRE, 78 FOR LBT AND 80 FOR FLO. THERE COULD BE SOME HIGH CLOUDS
STREAMING OVER THE AREA AS A MINOR SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST, BUT BASICALLY WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY COLUMN AND
SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN FROM THE NORTH SAT NIGHT WILL PUSH
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT FARTHER SOUTH INTO NC. A BIT OF COLD AIR
WILL BLEED SOUTH INTO OUR AREA, BUT OVERALL, BEST TEMP GRADIENT
WILL REMAIN NORTH AND WEST OF LOCAL FORECAST AREA. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL REMAIN SIMILAR TO TONIGHT WITH LOWS GETTING DOWN CLOSE
TO 50.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH
PORTIONS OF NC ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES
COOLER, BUT THE BEST COLD ADVECTION SHOULD REMAIN WELL NORTH OF
THE AREA, CREATING AN IMPRESSIVE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT FROM SE TO
NW ACROSS NC. STILL IN THE UPPER 60S OR LOWER 70S ACROSS OUR
AREA WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER THROUGHOUT THE DAY. A COASTAL
TROUGH WILL CREATE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OFFSHORE AS A WEAK
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS AND MID-LEVEL ENERGY BOLSTERS THE SURFACE
TROUGH. SHOWERS WILL STAY OFFSHORE WHERE THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
IS SUFFICIENT, BUT WE CAN'T RULE OUT A SPRINKLE ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COASTLINE SUNDAY EVENING. SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES
OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL AS DEW POINTS RECOVER
NICELY INTO THE MID 50S. APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON MONDAY WILL
TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND MOSTLY DISSIPATE AS
IT LOSES ITS UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT IN THE FORM OF A LIFTING
TROUGH. ONCE THE FRONT ARRIVES IN OUR AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT, ANY
ASSOCIATED RAIN CHANCES WILL BE NEARLY ZERO. HIGH PRESSURE IS
ABLE TO BUILD SOUTHWARD ON MONDAY EVENING WITH COOLER AIR
ARRIVING BY TUESDAY MORNING. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO
NEAR 50 DURING THE TRANSITION.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
COOLER ON TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA.
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S WITH THE BEST COLD ADVECTION OVER THE
DELMARVA REGION AND SOUTHERN VA. HIGH PRESSURE LIFTS QUICKLY BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH SW MID-LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF A WEAK
SHORTWAVE. LOW POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SHOWERS ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH THE MAIN FORCING TO OUR WEST. A MORE
VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY WITH A
GOOD CHANCE AT SEEING WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY. STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON THE EXACT POSITION OF THIS SHORTWAVE WHICH COULD
HAVE IMPACT ON QPF POTENTIAL. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER
CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THE ONE POTENTIAL FOR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS MAY DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT ALONG THE COAST AFTER 08Z, AFFECTING THE MYR, CRE, AND
ILM AIRPORTS. INCREASING ATLANTIC MOISTURE COULD LEAD TO FOG AND
PERHAPS A LITTLE LOW STRATUS. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME,
BUT ANY IMPACTS SHOULD CLEAR BETWEEN 13-14Z. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SATURDAY WITH ONLY SOME CIRRUS ALOFT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR. THERE IS A LOW POTENTIAL FOR MVFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY IN LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA.
MARINE
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT... BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH SAT NIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS LESS THAN 3
FT. WEAK BOUNDARY DROPPING SOUTH INTO WATERS PRODUCED A SHIFT
TO NW BUT OVERALL, WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS THEY
SHIFT BACK AROUND TO THE SE-S AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS FARTHER
OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT INTO SAT AND BOUNDARY MEANDERS
CLOSE BY. THE WINDS WILL VEER SLIGHTLY MORE SW ON SAT AS ONE
HIGH SHIFTS FARTHER OFF THE COAST AND ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE MIGRATES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY EAST TOWARD THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST NUDGING BOUNDARY SOUTH. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD DROP
SOUTH POSSIBLY REACHING THE LOCAL WATERS BY SUN MORNING.
OVERALL, WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT WITH A MORE S-SW FLOW THROUGH
SAT AND POSSIBLE SHIFT TO N BY SUN MORNING. A SLIGHTLY LONGER
PERIOD SE SWELL WILL MIX IN.
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES TO OUR NORTH
ON SUNDAY WITH NE FLOW INCREASING TO 15-20 KNOTS. HIGH PRESSURE
EXISTS FOR ONLY A BRIEF PERIOD AS A MUCH STRONGER COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASING SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY, APPROACHING 20 KNOTS LATE MONDAY WITH HIGHER
GUSTS OUT OF THE SW. COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT
WITH OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING, BUT QUICKLY ABATING AFTER HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS ON TUESDAY
NIGHT AHEAD OF A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WHICH COULD BRING SHOWER
CHANCES AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY INTO LATE NEXT WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
THE STATE OF NORTH CAROLINA HAS ISSUED A STATE-WIDE BURN
BAN IN EFFECT UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. THIS MEANS OUTDOOR OPEN
BURNING IS STRICTLY PROHIBITED. RH ON FRIDAY WILL DROP TO
30-35% INLAND, AND BETWEEN 35-45% ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST
AS DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL AND FUEL MOISTURES REMAIN
EXCESSIVELY LOW.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...TRA
NEAR TERM...RGZ
SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM...21
AVIATION...TRA
MARINE...RGZ/21
FIRE WEATHER...
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