280
FXUS62 KILM 281902
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
302 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ALL SECTIONS UPDATED WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN FORECAST REASONING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING/TONIGHT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING/TONIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
STORMS FIRING IN THE UPSTATE REGION OF
THE CAROLINAS/APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS BENEFITING FROM BOTH WARM
ADVECTION AND SOME INCREASINGLY VORT-LADEN NORTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL
FLOW. THESE STORMS SHOULD MEANDER OVER THOSE LOCATIONS IN THE VERY
NEAR TERM BEFORE THEY START TO CONGEAL INTO A FORCED LINE THAT MOVES
SOUTHWARD. THE RRFS (A WELL INITIALIZED MODEL AT THIS TIME) BRINGS
THE STORMS INTO NORTHERN ZONES BY 00Z CLEARING THE GRAND STRAND AREA
CLOSE TO 04Z. AND WHILE THIS SENSE OF TIMING MAY WORK OUT JUST FINE
NW FLOW-FORCED LINES TEND TO BE QUICKER THAN PROGGED AND SO SHAVED
ABOUT 2 HOURS OFF OF AFOREMENTIONED WINDOWS. TIMING IS NOT THE ONLY
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE LINE AS IT ARRIVES, SO TOO IS THE SEVERE
POTENTIAL. DCAPE AND MLCAPE WILL BE MAINTAINED BUT ALSO BOTH BE
WANING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. 0-3KM SRH REMAINS IN THE
200-250 RANGE. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN QUITE
POOR AND THUNDER PROBS STAY QUITE LOW. ONE AREA OF SLIGHTLY ENHANCED
CONCERN IS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST (NC MORESO THAN SC) WHERE
COMPOSITE CONVECTIVE INDICES JUMP RIGHT AS THE LINE COMES THROUGH.
THE RRFS SUPERCELL COMPOSITE RISES INTO THE 10-15 RANGE IN THE CAPE
FEAR REGION FROM ABOUT 22-01Z. COMBINING THESE INGREDIENTS COULD BE
SUGGESTIVE OF FAIRLY LOW TO MEDIUM HEIGHT STORMS THAT MAY NOT BE THE
LIGHTNING PRODUCERS THAT WE SAW LAST WEEKEND, BUT THERE COULD STILL
BE ENOUGH STORM STRUCTURE OR EVEN WEAK LL MESOS THAT PUT DOWN WIND
DAMAGE. THE TORNADO THREAT CONTINUES TO BE SMALL BUT NON-ZERO AS
CLOUD BASES HAVE TROUBLE GETTING BELOW ABOUT 4KFT.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
MOST OF THE FORECAST WILL BE VFR AND WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WELL
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE ONLY DEVIATION FROM VFR WILL BE A LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL MOVE N TO S ACROSS THE
TERMINALS. ALL SITES APPEAR TO HAVE AN EQUAL CHANCE OF HAVING THE
STORMS AND SO CONTINUE TO HAVE PROB30S. AND ALTHOUGH NORTHWEST FLOW
EVENTS TEND TO OCCUR A BIT FASTER THAN FORECAST OUR CURRENT THINKING
IS THAT NORTHERNMOST LBT COULD START SEEING ACTIVITY AS EARLY AS
22Z. CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING REMAINS LOW HOWEVER AS THE STORMS
STILL NEED TO ORGANIZED WELL UPSTATE BEFORE THE THE LINE STARTS TO
MARCH SOUTHWARD. EVEN THE LAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE SLOWED.
EXTENDED FORECAST... VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DOMINATE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY.
MARINE
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY... THE MOST UNSETTLED WEATHER OF THE
FORECAST WILL BE AT ITS BEGINNING. THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT WILL
TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. A MARGINAL SCA IS IN
EFFECT THROUGH THEN AFTER WHICH TIME THE BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH AND
WINDS/SEAS BOTH START TO ABATE. THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD COULD
VERY WELL FEATURE WINDS CAPPED AT 10 KT AND SHORT PERIOD WIND WAVES
OF LESS THAN 3 FT AS THE PRESSURE PATTERN REMAINS WEAK DUE TO A
BROAD TROUGH EXTENDING SW INTO THE REGION FROM A SLOW MOVING STORM
SYSTEM TRYING TO EXIT THE MIDATLANTIC REGION, ITS PROGRESS SLOWED
BY THE FACT THAT IT SPENDS TIME UNDER A CUTOFF LOW ALOFT.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ087-096-099-
105>110.
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ106-
108.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EDT
TONIGHT FOR NCZ107.
SC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ017-023-024-
032-033-039-054>056-058-059.
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ054-
056.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ250-252-
254-256.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...MBB
KEY MESSAGES...MBB
DISCUSSION...MBB
AVIATION...MBB
MARINE...MBB
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