187
FXUS62 KILM 201023
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
623 AM EDT FRI MAR 20 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
KEY MESSAGES
1)WARMING TODAY CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES ARRIVE FOLLOWING A STRONG COLD FRONT LATE MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...WARMING TODAY CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES ARRIVE FOLLOWING A STRONG COLD FRONT LATE MONDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...ELONGATED SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE AREA
FRI IS SUPPRESSED SOUTH AND EAST BY SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE MID-
ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST SAT. SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE SURFACE RIDGE
CONSOLIDATES OVER THE FL PENINSULA AND LINGERS THERE INTO NEXT WEEK,
RESULTING IN WEAK SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW LOCALLY. ALOFT, THE 5H
RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS FLATTENS AND EXPANDS EAST. SUBSIDENCE
ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE COUPLED WITH DEEP WEST-NORTHWEST
FLOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST LEADS TO TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH MON. A MORE SIGNIFICANT 5H TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
NEXT WEEK DRIVE A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA MON NIGHT INTO TUE,
DROPPING TEMPERATURES TO NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. ISOLATED
WEAK SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT ARE POSSIBLE, GIVEN IT'S STRENGTH, BUT
MOISTURE IS LIMITED. LACK OF MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL
LIMIT COVERAGE AND STRENGTH OF ANY SHOWERS RESULTING IN MINIMAL
RAINFALL.
AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR. LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THIS MORNING. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON, WITH A SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY SEA BREEZE AT
COASTAL TERMINALS BETWEEN 17Z AND 22Z. SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID-
CLOUDS AROUND 10KFT MOVE ACROSS LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS
EVENING. SSW WINDS REMAIN AROUND 5-8 KTS TONIGHT AS A TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THERE MAY BE A FEW HOURS OF LLWS TOWARDS
END OF TAF PERIOD (LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING)
WHEN 35-40 KT WESTERLY WINDS MOVE INTO THE AREA AT 2 KFT.
EXTENDED FORECAST... VFR.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE AS A
TROUGH APPROACHES LATER TODAY. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH
MIDDAY VEERS TO SOUTHERLY BY THIS EVENING AND THEN SOUTHWESTERLY
TONIGHT, PEAKING AT 15-20 KTS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. SEAS AROUND 2-4 FT, PRIMARILY DUE TO E SWELL DURING THE
DAY WITH BUILDING SW WIND WAVE TONIGHT.
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
SURFACE HIGH OFF THE COAST AND TO THE SOUTH WILL MAINTAIN
SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO MON. WEAK GRADIENT WILL KEEP SPEEDS IN THE
10-15 KT RANGE INTO MON. SPEEDS INCREASE TO 15-20 KT MON AS
GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. FRONT ARRIVES MON
NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A NORTHERLY SURGE THAT IS LIKELY TO WARRANT A
SCA FOR A PORTION OF MON NIGHT AND MUCH OF TUE. SURGE WEAKENS
TUE WITH NORTHERLY FLOW MODERATING QUICKLY. SEAS 2-4 FT SAT
THROUGH MON. ONCE THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES THE ENHANCED NORTHERLY
FLOW BUILDS SEAS TO 4-7 FT LATE MON NIGHT AND FOR MUCH OF TUE.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...ILM
KEY MESSAGES...III
DISCUSSION...III
AVIATION...VAO
MARINE...III/VAO
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