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FXUS62 KILM 011934  
AFDILM  
  
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC  
334 PM EDT TUE APR 1 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS  
  
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE   
LINGERING FRONT TO THE SOUTH WILL LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM   
FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY WITH MUCH ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH ARRIVING FOR  
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. OUTSIDE OF LOW RAIN CHANCES LATE   
WEDNESDAY, THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE LATE SUNDAY INTO   
MONDAY ACCOMPANYING ANOTHER COLD FRONT.  
  
  
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/  
  
THE COLD FRONT HAS STALLED FROM ALONG THE COAST WESTWARD THROUGH THE   
PEE DEE REGION AND IS DEMARCATING DEW POINTS IN THE LOW 60S   
FROM THOSE IN THE LOW-MID 50S. CLOUDINESS HAS LARGELY  
DISSIPATED, EXCEPT IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT ALONG THE   
COAST. EXPECT THE CONTINUED ADVECTION OF LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR AND   
INCREASING SUBSIDENCE ALOFT TO GRADUALLY DRY OUT THESE CLOUDS BY  
LATE IN THE DAY, LEAVING A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY FOR THIS EVENING   
INTO EARLY TONIGHT. HOWEVER, AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH   
SHIFTS OFFSHORE, WINDS WILL VEER TO SOUTHEASTERLY TONIGHT AND   
BRING INCREASING MOISTURE BACK OVER THE SHALLOW DRY AIR MASS   
THAT ARRIVED ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASING CLOUDINESS  
AS STRATUS CLOUDS DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND SPREAD ACROSS THE   
REGION. WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THIS   
EVENING, EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO DROP RATHER QUICKLY BEFORE   
SLOWING DOWN OR GOING STEADY AS EASTERLY WINDS PICK UP BY   
MIDNIGHT. AS STRATUS CLOUDS ARRIVE, TEMPS WILL HOLD STEADY OR   
EVEN RISE A LITTLE WHERE THEY MOVE OVERHEAD DURING THE LATTER   
HALF OF THE NIGHT. EXPECT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MIDDLE 50S,   
EXCEPT LOW 50S IN NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.  
  
ON WEDNESDAY, AN ANOMALOUS RIDGE BEGINS BUILDING OVER THE   
ATLANTIC NEAR THE BAHAMAS, SETTING UP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW   
OVERHEAD AND RAISING MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS. NEAR THE SURFACE, HIGH   
PRESSURE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN EAST TO   
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS THROUGH THE DAY, KEEPING A FLOW OF MOIST   
OCEAN AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA OVER A SHALLOW WEDGE OF   
RELATIVELY DRY AIR. THE END RESULT SHOULD BE CONSIDERABLE   
CLOUDINESS CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY, WITH  
DAYTIME HEATING HELPING TO EAT AWAY AT THE CLOUDS SOMEWHAT,   
ALTHOUGH JUST HOW MUCH CLEARING CAN BE ACHIEVED IN THE AFTERNOON  
CARRIES LOWER THAN NORMAL CONFIDENCE. IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT  
CLOUDY OR MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES REMAIN IN PLACE ALMOST   
EVERYWHERE, WHICH WOULD KEEP DAYTIME HIGHS SOMEWHAT COOLER THAN   
FORECAST. ASSUMING AN INITIALLY CLOUDY MORNING WITH MIXED CLOUDS  
AND SUN IN THE AFTERNOON, HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE MID-UPPER 70S,  
EXCEPT LOW 70S NEAR THE COAST. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ON  
WEDNESDAY MAINLY NEAR THE COAST, ALTHOUGH THEY SHOULD BE LIGHT   
OWING TO THE SHALLOW NATURE OF THE MOISTURE AND WEAK FORCING.   
  
  
   
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/  
  
WARMING WILL BEGIN IN FORCE AS LINGERING BOUNDARY LIFTS BACK   
NORTH AS WARM FRONT AND WINDS COME AROUND TO THE SOUTH WITH DEEP  
RIDGE BEGINNING TO BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. ANY LOW CLOUDS   
OR LIGHT PCP WED EVE INTO EARLY THURS SHOULD BREAK UP. COULD   
SEE SOME AFTERNOON CU, BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY PCP WITH A VERY DRY  
MID TO UPPER LEVEL COLUMN THURS AFTN ONWARDS.   
  
RISING H5 HEIGHTS INCREASING ABOVE 590 DAM BY THURS WILL RISE   
EVEN FURTHER. THE 850 TEMPS WILL RISE FROM NEAR 11C TO 17C BY   
THURS. OVERALL, SUMMER-LIKE WEATHER WITH THE GREATEST WARMUP SO  
FAR THIS SEASON, BRINGING HIGH TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S INLAND.   
THE COOLER OCEAN WATERS WILL KEEP TEMPS ALONG THE BEACHES AND   
CLOSER TO THE COAST COOLER, ESPECIALLY WITH A DECENT SEA BREEZE   
PUSHING INLAND IN THE AFTERNOON. DEWPOINTS WILL REBOUND INTO THE  
60S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 60S IN A WARM AND MORE HUMID  
AIRMASS.   
  
  
   
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/  
  
DEEP RIDGING UP THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST WILL SLIP SLOWLY AWAY   
OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS DEEP MID TO UPPER   
TROUGH PUSHES A COLD FRONT EAST. INITIALLY RISING H5 HEIGHTS   
SHOULD PEAK ON FRI AND ALTHOUGH HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FALL THROUGH   
THE WEEKEND, THE RIDGE HOLDS ON WITH CONTINUED SUBSIDENCE AND   
DRY AIR THROUGH THE MID LEVELS KEEPING ANY SHOWERS OUT OF THE   
PICTURE UNTIL AT LEAST LATER ON SUN. THIS WILL LEAD TO PLENTY OF  
SUNSHINE AND VERY WARM TEMPS FRI INTO THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS   
WELL INTO THE 80S INLAND AND COULD SEE OUR FIRST 90 DEGREE DAY.   
TEMPS AT THE BEACHES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER AS THE WATER  
TEMPS WERE STILL IN THE 60S. EXPECT THE COOLER 70 DEGREE TEMPS   
TO SPREAD INLAND WITH THE SEA BREEZE EACH AFTN. THE WARM AND   
MORE HUMID AIR MASS WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 60S   
THROUGH SUN NIGHT.  
  
A DEEP MID TO UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE  
CAROLINAS ON SUN. EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS AND CHC OF PCP LATE  
SUN INTO SUN NIGHT. BEST SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL DAMPEN OUT AS IT  
APPROACHES THE EASTERN CAROLINAS, BUT SHOULD SEE SHWRS AND ISO   
STORMS COME MON AFTN AS FRONT MOVES THROUGH LOCAL AREA. TEMPS  
SHOULD ONLY REACH INTO THE 70S ON MON WITH CLOUDS AND PCP AND BY  
MON NIGHT INTO TUES, MUCH COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND FRONT.  
OVERNIGHT LOWS MON NIGHT WILL BE DOWN BELOW 50 MOST PLACES AND  
HIGHS ON TUES ONLY IN THE 60S.  
  
  
   
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/  
  
MVFR STRATUS CONTINUES TO IMPACT SOUTHEAST NC AND NORTHEAST SC  
TERMINALS, BUT WILL CLEAR FROM THE NORTH-NORTHWEST THIS MORNING  
AS THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. LBT WILL  
BE THE FIRST TO IMPROVE TO VFR IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO, WITH FLO  
FOLLOWING AROUND 14Z. LOW STRATUS WILL LINGER AT COASTAL  
TERMINALS A BIT LONGER BEFORE CLEARING OUT AROUND 15Z FOR KILM  
AND 16-17Z FOR CRE AND MYR, WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON TIMING.  
VFR WITH CLEAR SKIES WILL FOLLOW STRATUS CLEARING AS COLD FRONT  
MOVES TO THE SOUTH AND HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN. LIGHT  
NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP THIS MORNING, TURNING EASTERLY THIS  
EVENING. MVFR STRATUS WILL REDEVELOP TOWARDS END OF TAF PERIOD  
(EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING) AS MOIST AIR OVERRUNS A WEAK WEDGE,  
WITH GREATEST CONFIDENCE ACROSS INLAND NE SC.  
  
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...LOW CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EARLY  
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT,  
PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTHEAST SC, AS STALLED FRONT STARTS TO  
LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. PREDOMINANTLY VFR THURSDAY AFTERNOON  
THROUGH SATURDAY.  
  
  
   
MARINE  
  
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA   
WILL MAINTAIN STEADY EASTERLY WINDS TONIGHT, WHICH WILL   
GRADUALLY VEER TO SOUTHEASTERLY ON WEDNESDAY. SEAS IN THE 2-4 FT  
RANGE THIS AFTERNOON INCREASE TONIGHT TO 3-4 FT AND REMAIN IN   
THAT RANGE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SEAS WILL BE DRIVEN BY A   
COMBINATION OF SOUTHEASTERLY SWELLS OF 2-4 FT AT 8-9 SECONDS AND  
EASTERLY WIND WAVES OF 1-3 FT AT 4-5 SECONDS.  
  
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...WINDS WILL TRANSITION FROM SE  
TO S WED NIGHT INTO THURS AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH WITH A   
PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW SETTING UP THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF   
THE WEEK. WINDS WILL BE IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE AND WILL SHIFT  
FROM S TO A MORE SW DIRECTION FRI INTO THE WEEKEND WITH SEAS  
MAINTAINING A 3 TO 4 FT RANGE.  
  
  
   
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
  
NC...NONE.  
SC...NONE.  
MARINE...NONE.  
  
  
  
  
  
SYNOPSIS...ILM  
NEAR TERM...ABW  
SHORT TERM...RGZ  
LONG TERM...RGZ  
AVIATION...ABW  
MARINE...RGZ/ABW  
 
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