804
FXUS62 KILM 071127
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
627 AM EST WED JAN 7 2026
SYNOPSIS
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SINK SOUTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. ONCE IT LIFTS TO THE NORTH ON FRIDAY A
SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND COULD BRING RECORD HIGHS. A STRONG BUT
MOISTURE DEPRIVED COLD FRONT SUNDAY WILL BRING TEMPERATURES BACK
TO JANUARY VALUES MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
UPDATE
AVIATION UPDATE.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
FLOW ALOFT REMAINS FLAT, BLOCKING COLD AIR AND KEEPING SURFACE
FEATURES MOVING QUICKLY WEST TO EAST. STACKED LOW MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST TODAY DRAGS A WEAK FRONT INTO THE AREA TONIGHT.
TECHNICALLY IT IS A COLD FRONT, BUT NOT MUCH COLD AIR WITH IT. AHEAD
OF THE FRONT, WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES WITH THE FORECAST AREA
BETWEEN THE OFFSHORE HIGH AND THE AFOREMENTIONED STACKED LOW. HIGHS
WILL END UP 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN MANY AREAS AS WARM
ADVECTION COMBINES WITH MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE. LACK OF MOISTURE AND
FORCING WILL KEEP THE FRONT'S ARRIVAL DRY. FRONT SAGS SOUTH
OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA. BRIEF PERIOD OF
NORTHERLY FLOW TONIGHT WILL COOL LOWS A BIT FOR THU MORNING,
ALTHOUGH LOWS STILL END UP 10 DEGREES OR MORE ABOVE NORMAL.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
NOT MUCH TO DISCUSS THIS PERIOD OTHER THAN THE WARMTH DUE TO RIDGING
BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED IN
SHOWING HIGHS CLOSE TO 70 AWAY FROM THE WATER. THE MARINE LAYER OF
COOLER TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY INCREASED BY THE ONSHORE FLOW BROUGHT
ABOUT BY THE WEAK FRONT TO OUR SOUTH.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
WARM FRONT WILL BE NORTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ALLOWING
FOR THE WARMTH TO PEAK, SATURDAY SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN FRIDAY WITH
HIGHS APPROACHING 80 (ONE ONLY HAS TO GET TO THE NBM 75TH
PERCENTILES BEFORE SOME 82S AND 83S SHOW UP). RECORD HIGHS COULD BE
IN JEOPARDY. MODELS ARE STARTING TO CONGEAL ON A FRONTAL PASSAGE
TIMING SUNDAY. SHOULD IT BE EARLY IN THE DAY THEN HIGHS WILL BE
IMPOSSIBLE TO FORECAST THIS FAR OUT AS THEY WILL OCCUR EARLY AND BE
FOLLOWED BY FALLING AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. MOISTURE IS QUITE
LIMITED DESPITE THE STRENGTH OF THE BOUNDARY AND BLENDED GUIDANCE IS
SUPPORTIVE OF POPS IN THE 30-50 RANGE, HIGHEST WEST. THE IMPRESSIVE
CAA WILL BRING A LIGHT FREEZE SUNDAY NIGHT AND HIGHS MONDAY THAT
STRUGGLE TO 50 FOLLOWED BY A RECOVERY TO SEASONABLY COOL JANUARY
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY.
AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
PATCHY DENSE FOG REPORTS REPORTED IN SOME AREAS INLAND ARE
RATHER CURIOUS GIVEN 5KT WINDS. LACK OF FOG OR NEARBY WEBCAMS IS
ALSO INTERESTING. COULD BE FOG IS BEING ADVECTED FROM NEARBY
WETLANDS WHICH WOULD LEAD TO FOG MIXING OUT RATHER QUICKLY AFTER
SUNRISE. ONLY TAF SITE BEING AFFECTED RIGHT NOW IS LBT AND LOOKS
LIKE FLO WILL STAY OUT OF THE IFR FOG, BRIEF MVFR FOG IS
POSSIBLE THROUGH 13Z. ONCE ANY AM FOG MIXES OUT VFR CONDITIONS
WILL DOMINATE WITH GENERALLY WESTERLY WINDS 5-10 KT. ONLY
EXCEPTION WILL BE LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS AT CRE/MYR LATE
AFTERNOON AS THE SEA BREEZE STRUGGLES TO PUSH INLAND.
LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS LATE TONIGHT AS WEAK FRONT PUSHES SOUTH.
NOT MUCH COLD AIR OR WIND WITH THE FRONT AND LINGERING BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE MAY ALLOW FOR DEVELOPMENT OF MVFR FOG, ESPECIALLY
AT INLAND SITES.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR OUTSIDE OF POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF MORNING
RESTRICTIONS FROM FOG/CEILINGS DURING THE WEEKEND.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE WELL TO THE NORTH
WILL MAINTAIN SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS TODAY. GRADIENT
IS WEAKER COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AND SPEEDS WILL BE AROUND 10 KT
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY, DROPPING UNDER 10 KT LATE. WEAK COLD FRONT
MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH THIS EVENING WITH NORTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPING AROUND MIDNIGHT. LACK OF COLD AIR OR ANY REAL
GRADIENT WILL KEEP NORTHERLY FLOW UNDER 10 KT THROUGH DAYBREAK.
SEAS 3-4 FT THIS MORNING DROP TO 2-3 FT BY MIDDAY AND BY THIS
EVENING WILL HAVE FALLEN TO 2 FT OR LESS. SEAS WILL BE A MIX OF
A DOMINANT SOUTHERLY WIND WAVE AND AN EASTERLY SWELL WITH THE
WIND WAVE GRADUALLY WEAKENING.
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... THE LIGHTEST WINDS AND SMALLEST SEAS WILL
BE AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. A WARM FRONT LAZILY LIFTING NORTH
ACROSS THE REGION WILL TURN NE WIND CLOCKWISE WITH TIME AS HIGH
PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA PROGRESSES EASTWARD. WIND WAVES AND E
SWELL BOTH MINIMAL. A SOUTHERLY FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED BY FRIDAY
BUT THE WARM SECTOR GRADIENT AND RESULTING WIND FIELD WILL BE SLOW
TO INCREASE. THE SW FLOW WILL INCREASE BY ONLY ABOUT A CATEGORY
SATURDAY LESS DUE TO ANY CHANGE IN THE OFFSHORE HIGH BUT MORE DUE TO
THE APPROACH OF A STRONG COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST. A FURTHER
INCREASE ALONG WITH A SHARP VEER SUNDAY WITH FROPA. WINDS REMAIN SUB-
ADVISORY LEADING UP TO FROPA AND ANY 6 FT SEAS WILL REMAIN WELL
OUTSIDE OF THE 20 NM FORECAST ZONES.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...III
NEAR TERM...III
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...III
MARINE...ILM
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