297
FXUS62 KILM 041004
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
605 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
DARLINGTON COUNTY HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR
TODAY. AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED WITH 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DANGEROUS HEAT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED HUMIDITY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1... DANGEROUS HEAT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED HUMIDITY.
A STRONG RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH SUN WITH HEAT AND INCREASING HUMIDITY UNDER THE RIDGE
CONTINUING DANGEROUS HEAT DURING A BUSY HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
TODAY WILL BE A VIRTUAL REPEAT OF YESTERDAY WITH HEAT INDICES
AT OR ABOVE 105 FOR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN SC AND
MOST OF SOUTHEASTERN NC. THE HEAT ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR A
PORTION OF THE AREA, ALTHOUGH IT HAS BEEN EXPANDED SLIGHTLY TO
INCLUDE DARLINGTON COUNTY BASED ON WHAT OCCURRED FRI. COASTAL
ZONES AND THE SOUTHERN TIER OF OUR FORECAST AREA REMAIN OUTSIDE
OF THE ADVISORY (THAT COULD CHANGE FOR AT LEAST SOME OF THESE
AREAS SUN).
RIDGING WEAKENS AND MOVES EASTWARD ON SUN. HIGH TEMPERATURES
DECREASE BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES, BUT DEW POINTS INCREASE AS THE
BERMUDA HIGH BUILDS WESTWARD. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAT INDICES
AROUND 105 DEGREES ON SUN AFTERNOON. A MID LEVEL TROUGH PASSES NORTH
OF THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH SHOULD DENT THE REMNANTS OF THE
RIDGE. THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE ZONAL, WITH WEAK IMPULSES IN THE
WESTERLY FLOW CROSSING THE AREA. THE WEAKENED RIDGE WOULD ALLOW FOR
A BRIEF REPRIEVE FROM THE HEAT AND OPEN THE DOOR FOR DAILY ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES
THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC ON MONDAY. THE LOCAL AREA REMAINS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE THROUGH NEXT WEEK
HOLDING TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL, ENHANCED BY WEAK WESTERLY
DOWNSLOPE FLOW. AFTERNOON STORM CHANCES SHOULD RETURN NEXT WEEK,
ALBEIT WITH REDUCED COVERAGE; DEVELOPMENT WILL FAVOR THE PIEDMONT
TROUGH WITH THE SEA BREEZE BECOMING MORE ACTIVE AROUND MID-WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
WIDESPREAD VFR. CANNOT RULE OUT BRIEF, PATCHY GROUND FOG AROUND
DAYBREAK, BUT WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER ARE A BIT
STRONGER THAN LAST NIGHT WHEN MINIMAL FOG DEVELOPED. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IS A LITTLE MORE CONCENTRATED INLAND, WHICH MAY MAKE
FLO/LBT SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORED FOR DEVELOPMENT OF BRIEF MVFR FOG, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. ALONG THE COAST ONSHORE FLOW WILL AGAIN BE AROUND
10 KT WITH OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS. FARTHER INLAND SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL BACK TO SOUTHWEST AS THE SEA BREEZE PASSES, BUT SPEEDS WILL BE
UNDER 10 KT.
EXTENDED FORECAST...GENERALLY VFR. LOW POTENTIAL FOR RESTRICTIONS
FROM FOG/LOW CEILINGS STARTING SUN MORNING. THREAT FOR AFTERNOON AND
EVENING STORMS RETURNS MONDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
MARINE
SURFACE HIGH THAT HAD BEEN NORTH OF THE AREA WILL START
SHIFTING TO THE MORE TYPICAL BERMUDA HIGH LOCATION TODAY INTO
SUN. ONCE LAST DAY OF A SEA BREEZE DOMINATED WIND FIELD BEFORE
THE MORE TYPICAL SUMMER- TIME SOUTHWEST FLOW SETS UP. NEARSHORE
FLOW WILL BE ONSHORE, FARTHER OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BE MORE SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST WITH SPEEDS 10-15 KT. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AND A
MODIFIED SEA BREEZE ON SUN WITH GRADIENT PUSHING SPEEDS TO A
SOLID 15 KT WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KT. MORE DEFINED GRADIENT
MON/TUE FURTHER INCREASES SPEEDS TO 15-20 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
WINDS DECREASE WED WITH THE ARRIVAL A WEAK FRONT DECREASING THE
GRADIENT. SEAS AROUND 2 FT START BUILDING LATE SUNDAY AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK, PEAKING AROUND 3-4 FEET ON TUESDAY IN THE
EXTENDING SW FETCH. THE GRADIENT WEAKENS SLIGHTLY ON WEDNESDAY,
BUT THE PROLONGED FETCH KEEPS AN ELEVATED WIND WAVE.
CLIMATE
HIGH TEMPERATURES AWAY FROM THE COAST ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR
RECORD LEVELS LATE THIS WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. BELOW ARE
THE DAILY RECORDS FOR JULY 3-7...
SATURDAY, JULY 4:
KILM: 100 / 1993
KLBT: 101 / 1905
KCRE: 97 / 1942
KFLO: 102 / 1993
SUNDAY, JULY 5:
KILM: 100 / 1902
KLBT: 103 / 2024
KCRE: 97 / 1996
KFLO: 103 / 2024
MONDAY, JULY 6:
KILM: 100 / 1902
KLBT: 102 / 2024
KCRE: 101 / 1990
KFLO: 103 / 2024
TUESDAY, JULY 7:
KILM: 102 / 1977
KLBT: 102 / 2010
KCRE: 99 / 1953
KFLO: 104 / 1954
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
NCZ087-096-099-105-107-109.
SC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
SCZ017-023-024-033-058-059.
MARINE...NONE
WHAT HAS CHANGED...ILM
KEY MESSAGES...ILM
DISCUSSION...ILM
AVIATION...III
MARINE...ILM
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