049  
FXUS62 KILM 150142  
AFDILM  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC  
942 PM EDT FRI AUG 14 2020  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
OCCASIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL PREVAIL  
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, AS SEVERAL BOUNDARIES INTERACT ALONG WITH A  
HUMID AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR IS  
EXPECTED TO INFILTRATE THE FORECAST AREA LATE SUN THRU EARLY  
NEXT WEEK WITH THE DIRECT RESULT OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF LESS  
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND ACTIVITY. NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL STORM  
KYLE OFFSHORE FROM THE DELMARVA COAST, WILL PUSH FURTHER EAST  
AND FURTHER AWAY FROM THE U.S. EAST COAST DURING THE WEEKEND.  
 

 
   
UPDATE
 
 
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THIS EVENING HAS REACHED THE HIEST COVERAGE  
FOR THE DAY, BUT STILL REMAINS SCATTERED IN NATURE. ACTIVITY  
WILL CONTINUE THRU THE NIGHT WITH CONVECTION BECOMING MORE  
WIDESPREAD NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND THE ADJACENT ATL WATERS  
OVERNIGHT INTO THE DAYTIME MORNING HRS. LATEST MODELS INDICATE  
THE APPROACH OF THE MID-LEVEL S/W TROF FROM THE WEST AND A SFC  
BOUNDARY EXTENDING ACROSS THE FA WITH SFC LOW PRESSURE  
DEVELOPING ON IT. OVERALL, TSTORM ACTIVITY LATE TONIGHT THRU SAT  
NIGHT LOOKS QUITE EXTENSIVE IN COVERAGE. HAVE RE-HASHED POPS FOR  
THE REMAINDER OF THIS EVENING THRU THE OVERNIGHT AND MESHED THEM  
NICELY INTO THE PREVIOUS DAYLIGHT POP FCST. HAVE INCREASED  
OVERNIGHT LOWS BY A DEGREE OR 2, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE  
COAST. PATCHY FOG REMAINS A GOOD POSSIBILITY ALONG WITH LOW  
STRATUS CLOUD DECK AT TIMES. COULD BE ENOUGH MID AND UPPER LEVEL  
CLOUDS TO PREVENT ANY WIDESPREAD FOG OR LOW STRATUS.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
 
 
LOW PRESSURE LIFTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST LEFT A WESTERLY FLOW  
AND LINGERING TROUGH JUST NORTH OF FORECAST AREA. THE WESTERLY  
FLOW AND A BIT OF SUBSIDENCE ON BACK END OF SHORTWAVE, PLUS  
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER FROM FOG THIS MORNING GIVING A  
LATE DAY START TO ANY CONVECTION. SHWRS AND TSTMS LOCATED ALONG  
THE TROUGH RUNNING FROM WEST TO EAST JUST NORTH OF AREA, SHOULD  
BEGIN TO SPREAD SOUTHWARD ALONG OUTFLOW FROM STORMS INTO THIS  
EVENING AND WILL CONTINUE TO SEE CONVECTION ALIGNED WITH SEA  
BREEZE CLOSER TO THE CAPE FEAR COAST. OVERALL, EXPECT ISO TO SCT  
COVERAGE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA IN CONTINUED WARM AND MOIST  
AIR MASS.  
 
WINDS WILL COME BACK AROUND TO THE SW THROUGH TONIGHT AND SHOULD  
SEE SOME FOG AGAIN TONIGHT. WINDS WILL START PICKING UP THROUGH  
SAT INTO SAT NIGHT AS MID TO UPPER TROUGH PUSHES EASTWARD AND  
FRONT REACHES INTO THE CAROLINAS. PCP WATER VALUES REMAIN ABOVE  
2 INCHES COMBINING WITH INCREASING UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND  
INCREASING WINDS TO PRODUCE ENHANCED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ON SAT.  
 
TEMPS WILL BE AFFECTED BY CLOUDS AND CONVECTION BUT OVERALL  
EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 70S AND HIGHS ON SAT UP IN THE  
MID 80S TO NEAR 90.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
 
 
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT STORMS WILL FIRE FIRST OVER INLAND  
ZONES ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS BOUNDARY AND THE STORMS ALONG  
IT WILL THEN PUSH TO THE COAST DURING THE EVENING HOURS. THE ADDED  
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT SHOULD ALLOW STORMS TO LAST A  
BIT LONGER THAN THEY OTHERWISE WOULD IN THE ABSENCE OF THE FRONT.  
DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE RIGHT AT CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS WHILST NIGHTTIME  
LOWS WILL BE ELEVATED BY LINGERING CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
CONVECTIVE SIGNALS LARGELY ABSENT IN MODEL GUIDANCE ON MONDAY. GIVEN  
THAT WE ARE BETWEEN THE EXITING TROUGH FROM THE SHORT TERM AND THE  
NEXT ONE APPROACHING THIS APPEARS TO LARGELY HAVE MERIT. A FEW  
MESOSCALE PROCESSES SHOULD STILL MANAGE A STORM OR TWO SO THE 30-ISH  
POPS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST APPEAR FINE. THE NEXT TROUGH THEN  
DROPS IN BY WEDNESDAY ONCE AGAIN ELEVATING THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE  
ABOVE THE NORMAL FOR AUGUST. NOT SURE THAT RAMPING UP TO LIKELY IS  
WARRANTED AS A LOT OF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SINCE ALL OF THE PVA SEEMS  
TO STAY TO OUR NORTH SO WE'VE TRIMMED 10-15% MOST AFTERNOONS.  
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY THIS MAY ALSO HOLD TRUE AS THE MAIN TROUGH  
PULLS AWAY AND A PIECE OF IT DIGS DOWN ACROSS TX AND THE LOWER MS  
VALLEY.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
MAINLY VFR THRU THE EVENING DUE TO PCPN COVERAGE NOT AS  
WIDESPREAD AS 1ST INDICATED. VCTS AND VCSH WILL BE INSTITUTED  
ACROSS TERMINALS BASED ON CLOSE PROXIMITY OF CURRENT AND PROGGED  
CONVECTION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. COULD SEE ANOTHER  
ROUND OF MVFR FOG AND IFR DUE TO LOW STRATUS DURING THE PRE-DAWN  
SAT HRS, MAINLY ACROSS THE INLAND TERMINALS. DURING THESE SAME  
HRS AND EXTENDING THRU 15Z, THE COASTAL TERMINALS WILL SEE  
CONVECTION IN CLOSE PROXIMITY ACROSS THE ADJACENT ATL WATERS.  
COULD SEE ISOLATED CELLS AFFECT THE IMMEDIATE COAST BUT TOO LOW  
CONFIDENCE TO ISSUE TEMPO GROUPS. NORTHEAST SC AND SOUTHEAST NC,  
SHOULD SEE CONVECTION FIRE UP BY EARLY SAT AFTN AND CONTINUE  
THRU SUNSET. HAVE INDICATED PREVAILING AFTN/EVENING VCTS WITH  
PROB30 GROUPS HIGHLIGHTING THE TIMING FOR ATLEAST MVFR TSTORMS.  
WINDS GENERALLY BECOMING SSW-SW 5 KT OR LESS OVERNIGHT AND  
CONTINUING THRUOUT DAYLIGHT SAT. THE SEA BREEZE WILL AFFECT THE  
COASTAL TERMINALS WITH WINDS BECOMING S-SSW AT 10 TO 15 KT.  
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTORMS  
EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND SEVERAL BOUNDARIES INTERACT. DRIER AIR MAY  
WORK ITS WAY BRIEFLY ACROSS THE AREA LATE SUN INTO EARLY NEXT  
WEEK WITH LESS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AND COVERAGE POSSIBLE.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
WINDS HAVE BACKED FROM WESTERLY TO SW WINDS AND WILL INCREASE  
THROUGH SATURDAY AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH APPROACH OF  
FRONT/TROUGH. INCREASING SOUTHERLY PUSH WILL DRIVE SEAS UP TO 3  
TO 4 FT LATE SAT INTO SAT NIGHT. WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON NEAR  
SHORE SHOULD BACK TO S WITH GUSTS UP NEAR 20 KT AT TIMES ON SAT.  
A LONGER PERIOD SE SWELL 1-2 FEET EVERY 8-9 SECONDS WILL MIX  
WITH SHORTER PERIOD SOUTHERLY WIND WAVES.  
 
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ON SUNDAY WILL YIELD TO N TO NE FLOW BY MONDAY  
AS A FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE WATERS. WITH NO LARGE PUSH OF HIGH  
PRESSURE BEHIND THE BOUNDARY AS OFTEN SEEN IN THE COOLER SEASONS NO  
BIG CHANGES IN WINDS SPEED EXPECTED. IN FACT THE PRESSURE PATTERN  
WILL BE SO POORLY DEFINED COME TUESDAY THAT A DOMINANT WIND DIRECTION  
MAY BE HARD TO ASCERTAIN. WEAK SWELL ENERGY FROM JOSEPHINE ARRIVES  
ON TUESDAY. A MORE TYPICAL SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS ON WEDNESDAY. WIND  
SPEEDS REMAIN VERY LIGHT WEDNESDAY BUT THE AFOREMENTIONED SWELLS  
COULD ADD A FOOT TO THE DOMINANT WAVE HEIGHT.  
 

 
   
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
SC...NONE.  
NC...NONE.  
MARINE...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...DCH  
UPDATE...DCH  
NEAR TERM...RGZ  
SHORT TERM...MBB  
LONG TERM...MBB  
AVIATION...DCH  
MARINE...DCH/MBB/RGZ  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab NC Page
The Nexlab SC Page Main Text Page