548  
FXUS62 KILM 021143  
AFDILM  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC  
640 AM EST FRI DEC 2 2022  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL UNTIL A COLD FRONT  
APPROACHES SATURDAY AND MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT  
SHOULD THEN RETURN BACK NORTH THROUGH THE AREA AS A WARM FRONT  
TOWARD MID NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
 
 
SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE COVERING MUCH OF THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE  
NATION BRINGING CHILLY TEMPERATURES. IT'S CENTER IS TO OUR NORTH  
HOWEVER PREVENTING IDEALIZED RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS (SAVE FOR  
THE ALWAYS RELIABLE HOLLY SHELTER, ALREADY DOWN TO 22F!) AND  
TEMPERATURES SHOULD ONLY FALL ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO IF NOT LEVEL OFF  
ALTOGETHER. WARM ADVECTION WILL BE UNDERWAY TODAY ATOP THE STILL  
POORLY MIXED SURFACE-BASED LAYER SO MORNING TEMPERATURE CURVE MAY BE  
A TAD FLAT. EVEN BENEATH A HEALTHY INVERSION AT 4500FT WE SHOULD  
EVENTUALLY WARM INTO THE LOW 60S, NOT FAR FROM CLIMATOLOGICAL  
NORMALS. CIRRUS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND OPACITY AS TODAY WEARS  
ON, LIKELY MAKING FOR A NICE SUNSET. A FEW MID CLOUDS COULD JOIN THE  
CIRRUS OVERNIGHT KEEPING LOW TEMPERATURES SOME 10 DEGREES ABOVE  
NORMAL.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE TO HIGH THIS PERIOD. A COLD FRONT  
WILL APPROACH SATURDAY AND THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING RISK FOR SOME  
MOSTLY LIGHT SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY, ESPECIALLY NORTHERN AND  
NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. SHOWERS WILL PUSH  
OFFSHORE SATURDAY EVENING AS DRIER AND CHILLIER AIR FILTERS IN WITH  
HIGH PRESSURE OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PREVAIL THE REST OF  
THE PERIOD WITH DRY CONDITIONS LIKELY, ALTHOUGH WOULDN'T BE TOO  
SURPRISED IF A FEW SHOWERS OCCURRED, ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN/EASTERN  
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY WHEN A COASTAL TROUGH COULD  
DEVELOP. EXPECT MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY  
NIGHT THEN GETTING BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL STARTING SUNDAY.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
 
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO MODERATE THIS PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE  
SHOULD BE GIVING WAY TO A WARM FRONT MONDAY NIGHT AND/OR TUESDAY  
FOLLOWED BY A POSSIBLE WEAK COLD FRONT LATE IN THE PERIOD. THUS, IT  
DOES APPEAR THERE WILL BE SOME PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER,  
ALTHOUGH EXACT DETAILS ARE FAIRLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT.  
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
 
 
NE WINDS TO CONTINUE AS WILL VFR. CIRRUS LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD  
INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AND SOME MID LEVEL CLOUD OVERNIGHT.  
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES, MAINLY  
DUE TO LOW CLOUDS THROUGH MONDAY, THEN ALSO SOME SHOWERS MONDAY  
NIGHT/TUESDAY.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
THROUGH TONIGHT...LARGE HIGH PRESSURE COVERING MUCH OF THE  
EASTERN U.S. TO BE THE DOMINANT WIND AND WAVE MAKER THROUGH THE  
NEAR TERM. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH AND  
PROGRESS EASTWARD VEERING THE RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS. SWELL  
ENERGY AROUND THIS ANTICYCLONE REMAINS TO OUR NORTH KEEPING  
DOMINANT PERIODS GENERALLY 6-7 SECONDS.  
 
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY: CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE TO HIGH THROUGH THE  
PERIOD. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY  
HIGH PRESSURE BEFORE THE FRONT POSSIBLY MOVES BACK NORTH THROUGH THE  
AREA AS A WARM FRONT MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY. WINDS/SEAS WILL BE  
ELEVATED AT TIMES BUT STILL THINK THE RISK FOR A SMALL CRAFT  
ADVISORY REMAINS LOW.  
 

 
   
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
SC...NONE.  
NC...NONE.  
MARINE...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...ILM  
NEAR TERM...MBB  
SHORT TERM...RJB  
LONG TERM...RJB  
AVIATION...RJB/MBB  
MARINE...RJB/MBB  
 
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