254
FXUS62 KILM 160614
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
114 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2025
SYNOPSIS
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.
RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE WEEKEND WITH NEAR TO ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AFTER A FRIGID START THIS MORNING, TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND QUITE
WELL AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE. LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW (LESS
THAN 5 MPH) WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S
ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. VERY DRY WITH MINIMUM RH IN THE
UPPER TEENS OR LOWER 20S. SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS INCREASE SLIGHTLY THIS EVENING WHICH SHOULD
INTERRUPT A NEARLY PERFECT RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP. THERE COULD BE
A LARGE DISCREPANCY IN AREAL LOWS WITH MID 20S POSSIBLE IN OUR
SHELTERED LOW SPOTS AND TEMPERATURES AROUND 30 ELSEWHERE. COASTAL
AREAS SHOULD HOLD IN THE MID 30S WITH A WEAKER INVERSION.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
DEEP SW FLOW AROUND HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL PRODUCE
CONTINUED WARMING ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD REACH AROUND
60. BY WED NIGHT INTO THURS, IT LOOKS LIKE A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY
DROP FAR ENOUGH SOUTH WHILE SHORTWAVE OVER THE GULF WILL RIDE
AROUND DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH AND SHOULD SEE POTENTIAL FOR
CLOUDS AND PCP WED NIGHT INTO THURS. THEN AS MID TO UPPER TROUGH
MOVES EASTWARD LATER ON THURS, SHOULD SEE POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL SHWRS IN INCREASING MOISTURE AND LIFT IN DEEP
SOUTHERLY FLOW. PCP WATER LEVELS COULD REACH ABOVE 1.5 INCHES,
ESPECIALLY CLOSE TO THE COAST WITH TEMPS INTO THE MOD 60S AND
DEWPOINT TEMPS NEAR 60. COULD SEE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER AHEAD OF
FRONT.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE FRI WITH MUCH DRIER AND COOLER
AIR MOVING INTO THE COASTAL CAROLINAS FRI AFTN INTO FRI NIGHT.
TEMPS UP NEAR 70 EARLY FRI WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE 30S FRI NIGHT
IN CAA AND CLEARING SKIES. TEMPS ON SAT WILL BE COOLER AS HIGH
MIGRATES ACROSS THE AREA MOVING OFFSHORE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN.
HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH INTO THE 50S BUT AS HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE
COAST, IT SHOULD LEAD TO INCREASING WARMTH ONCE AGAIN WITH TEMPS
BACK IN THE 60S BY SUN. SHOULD SEE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE OVER
THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH SUN, BUT
LOOKS LIKE MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED AS FLOW ALOFT REMAINS MORE
ZONAL. STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN FROM THE GREAT
LAKES ON MON WITH A COOL DOWN TO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS ONCE
AGAIN.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR/SKC AND LIGHT WINDS.
EXTENDED FORECAST... RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY MORNING AND
AGAIN ON THURSDAY EVENING AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE IN THE NEARLY OVERHEAD WILL
MAINTAIN LIGHT WINDS TODAY. AS THE PROGRESSIVE PRESSURE PATTERN
SHIFTS EASTWARD, SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE GRADUALLY
TONIGHT, BUT THE WEAK GRADIENT SHOULD KEEP WINDS AROUND 5-10
KNOTS. SEAS 1-2 FEET.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...LIGHT RETURN FLOW ON WED WILL
BECOME MORE VARIABLE LATE WED INTO THURS AS WEAK FRONT DROPS
DOWN, BUT THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIFT BACK NORTH ON THURS WITH
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THURS. THIS WILL BUILD SEAS
FROM LESS THAN 3 FT ON WED UP TO 3 TO 4 FT THURS AND POSSIBLE UP
TO 5 TO 8 FT THU NIGHT IN SOUTHERLY WINDS UP TO 25 KTS. EXPECT
SCA CONDITIONS BY LATE THURS INTO FRI. WINDS WILL VEER AROUND
BEHIND COLD FRONT THROUGH FRI WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR
THE WEEKEND.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...21
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...21
MARINE...RGZ/21
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