972
FXUS62 KILM 030623
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
223 AM EDT SAT OCT 3 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 06Z TAFS. SOME CHANGES MADE TO
WEEKEND FORECAST FOR TIMING, HOWEVER THE POTENTIAL FOR RAINFALL
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY REMAINS HIGH.
KEY MESSAGES
1) WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS
WEEKEND AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE, EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND
IN LATEST CHS/JAX RAOBS, WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD OVER THE
REGION TODAY. LATEST CHS RAOB SHOWING PRECIPITABLE WATER AT 2.1"
WITH JAX AT 2.5" (BOTH OF WHICH ARE MORE OR LESS THE DAILY
MAX). THIS TROPICAL AIR MASS WILL HELP SET THE STAGE FOR AN
UNSETTLED WEEKEND, ALTHOUGH QUESTIONS STILL REMAIN CONCERNING
JUST HOW UNSETTLED. A FRONT SAGGING SOUTH TRIES TO MOVE INTO THE
AREA LATER TODAY, WITH PRE-FRONTAL CONVERGENCE HELPING GENERATE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA. A SECONDARY AREA OF CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP ALONG
A WEAK SEA BREEZE PINNED ALONG THE SC COAST. HOWEVER, ACTIVITY
HERE WOULD BE WEAKER WITH LESS COVERAGE. THERE IS A BIT OF MID-
LEVEL SUPPORT FROM THE REMAINS OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND A WEAK
200MB JET PASSING TODAY. NEITHER FEATURE IS VERY IMPRESSIVE,
BUT WITH THE AIR MASS AND THE PRESENCE OF WEAK LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ANTICIPATE SEEING SOME CONVECTION DEVELOP.
THE LOCATION OF THE FRONT WILL DETERMINE RAIN CHANCES THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. WOULD NOT BE SHOCKED IF THE FRONT
ENDS UP LAYING SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST TONIGHT, NEAR THE I-95
CORRIDOR THEN EVENTUALLY MOVING TO THE COAST DURING SUN AS A
MORE TYPICAL COLD FRONT VS A BACKDOOR FRONT (ALTHOUGH THE
BACKDOOR FRONT WAVERING ACROSS THE AREA IS STILL A POSSIBILITY).
EITHER SCENARIO WILL LEAD TO UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TONIGHT
THROUGH SUN NIGHT, ALTHOUGH IF THE FRONT ENDS UP INLAND, AREAS
EAST OF THE FRONT WOULD SEE MORE OF A CONVECTIVE RAINFALL
DISTRIBUTION WHILE AREAS CLOSER TO THE FRONT OR TO THE WEST OF
IT SEE MORE OF AN EVEN DISTRIBUTION OF RAINFALL. GIVEN THE VERY
HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES, DEEP WARM CLOUD LAYER AND SLOW
MOVING STORMS, WITH POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING, CANNOT RULE OUT SOME
FLOOD PRODUCTS BEING ISSUES AT SOME POINT THIS WEEKEND, HOWEVER
THE ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS SHOULD KEEP ANY FLOODING IMPACTS
LIMITED.
A MID-LEVEL TROUGH HELPS MOVE THE FRONT TO THE COAST LATER SUN
OR SUN NIGHT WITH THE FRONT PUSHING OFFSHORE. ALTHOUGH THE
TROUGH AXIS PASSES SUN NIGHT INTO MON, KICKING THE FRONT
OFFSHORE, DEEP DRY AIR IS SLOW TO ARRIVE, AND MUCH OF MON COULD
BE UNSETTLED.
AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ANTICIPATE VFR OVERNIGHT OUTSIDE OF POTENTIAL MVFR FOR ILM DUE
TO FOG. INCREASING MID-LEVEL CLOUD AND BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS
SHOULD KEEP FOG FROM BEING A CONCERN AT THE REMAINING TERMINALS.
CONVECTION INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE IN PLACE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT. ALTHOUGH THE
SEA BREEZE WILL BE WEAK AND PINNED TO THE COAST, THERE IS AT
LEAST SOME INDICATION OF WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COAST, WHICH
MAY BE WHAT HELPS GENERATE WEAKER CONVECTION ACROSS COASTAL SC
THIS AFTERNOON. FARTHER NORTH AND INLAND THE FRONT'S INFLUENCE
WILL INCREASE, WITH PRE-FRONTAL CONVERGENCE GENERATING A FEW
STORMS WHICH THEN PROPAGATE VIA OUTFLOW. WHILE THE AIR MASS IS
QUITE JUICY, FORCING REMAINS LIMITED AND WEAK. SO DO NOT EXPECT
WIDESPREAD COVERAGE INITIALLY, HENCE CONTINUING PROB30 IN THE
TAFS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. DO STILL EXPECT EACH TERMINAL WILL
EXPERIENCE CEILING AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS TODAY, JUST OF
RELATIVELY SHORT DURATION. HOWEVER, TONIGHT, THE POTENTIAL FOR
MVFR/IFR INCREASES WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND LIGHT TO CALM
WINDS IN PLACE.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...POTENTIAL FOR MVFR/IFR SUNDAY, INCREASING
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH IFR BECOMING MORE LIKELY. IFR MAY LINGER FOR
MUCH OF MONDAY BEFORE VFR RETURNS MONDAY NIGHT.
MARINE
LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TODAY AND MAY CONTINUE
UNINTERRUPTED THROUGH SUN. THERE ARE NOW SOME INDICATIONS THE
FRONT THAT HAD BEEN EXPECTED TO SAG SOUTH, WILL REMAIN NORTH AND
WEST OF THE WATERS, WITH THE WEAK GRADIENT KEEPING SPEEDS 10 KT
OR LESS. THE FRONT NOW APPEARS TO MOVE OFFSHORE SUN NIGHT WITH
WEST AND THEN NORTHWEST WINDS SETTING UP. NO REAL STRONG
NORTHERLY PUSH RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT WITH NORTH TO NORTHEAST
FLOW NOT INCREASING UNTIL MON NIGHT OR TUE. STILL EXPECT TO SEE
HEADLINE CONDITIONS DEVELOP ONCE THE SURGE ARRIVES, LIKELY MON
NIGHT. ANTICIPATE SEEING A COUPLE DAYS WORTH OF HEADLINES.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...III
KEY MESSAGES...III
DISCUSSION...III
AVIATION...III
MARINE...III
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