402
FXUS62 KILM 221042
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
642 AM EDT SUN MAR 22 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY AND MONDAY HAVE BEEN INCREASED BY 1-
2 DEGREES, FARTHER INTO RECORD-BREAKING TERRITORY AT FLORENCE
AND LUMBERTON. FORECAST THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MONDAY AFTERNOON
HAVE BEEN INCREASED TO 40-50 PERCENT ACROSS THE CAPE FEAR AREA.
KEY MESSAGES
1) RECORD HEAT IN STORE FOR TODAY AWAY FROM THE COAST. WELL
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY.
2) SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
MONDAY AFTERNOON. A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO
SEVERE.
3) CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH WILL BRING
TWO DAYS OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: RECORD HEAT IN STORE FOR TODAY AWAY FROM THE
COAST. WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY.
DOWNSLOPE FLOW ALONG WITH 850 TEMPS RISING TO 15-16C (FEW DEGREES
ABOVE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR) WITH PRODUCE RECORD
HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF OUR AREA. CURRENT FORECAST HAS HIGHS
AROUND 90F THIS AFTERNOON, WITH ACTIVE SEA BREEZE KEEPING COASTAL
AREAS SLIGHTLY COOLER. 90F WOULD SURPASS CURRENT RECORD HIGHS FOR
FLO AND LBT BY THREE DEGREES (SEE CURRENT RECORDS FOR TODAY AND
MONDAY BELOW). WIND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON MIGHT END UP BEING A BIT
HIGHER THAN EXPECTED, UP TO 25 MPH, WHICH MAY TEMPER THE HIGHS A
COUPLE OF DEGREES (BUT STILL RECORD WARMTH).
LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN THE LOW TO MID 60S,
ABOUT 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. WHILE HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES LOWER THAN TODAY, FORECAST STILL CALLS FOR TEMPS TO REACH
MID TO UPPER 80S AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
RECORD HIGHS:
................... SUN MAR 22 ... MON MAR 23
WILMINGTON NC......... 87 IN 1907 ... 94 IN 1907
LUMBERTON NC.......... 87 IN 1948 ... 91 IN 1907
N. MYRTLE BEACH SC.... 86 IN 1995 ... 85 IN 2011
FLORENCE SC........... 87 IN 1995 ... 88 IN 1995
KEY MESSAGE 2: SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE MONDAY AFTERNOON. A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO
SEVERE.
AS THE COLD FRONT REACHES SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA MONDAY
AFTERNOON THERE SHOULD BE SURFACE CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 500 J/KG
INLAND TO NEARLY 1000 J/KG NEAR THE COAST. A SEABREEZE SHOULD HAVE
ALREADY HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE BEACHES, CREATING GOOD LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE UP AGAINST NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS COULD
LEAD TO AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS, SCULPTED INTO SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING
MULTICELLS BY 35 KT OF 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR. AFTER COLLABORATION WITH
NWS MHX, I'VE BUMPED UP FORECAST POPS ACROSS THE CAPE FEAR AREA TO
40-50 PERCENT MONDAY AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS MAY DEVELOP IF DRY AIR
ABOVE 800 MB IS ENTRAINED INTO CONVECTIVE DOWNDRAFTS. SPC'S DAY 2
MARGINAL RISK ADDRESSES THIS POTENTIAL.
KEY MESSAGE 3: CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH
WILL BRING TWO DAYS OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.
AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF ABOVE NORMAL AND RECORD-BREAKING TEMPERATURES,
THE CANADIAN AIRMASS BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL FEEL
PARTICULARLY CHILLY. FORECAST HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN THE LOWER 60S ARE
BELOW NORMAL AND A GOOD 22-26 DEGREES BELOW MONDAY'S FORECAST HIGHS.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RECOVER INTO THE 70S BY THURSDAY AND BACK INTO
THE 80S BY FRIDAY.
AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
PREDOMINANTLY VFR, WITH SPOTTY MVFR VSBYS EARLY THIS MORNING
CLEARING QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE. LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY DURING THE DAY. GUSTS MAY REACH 20 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY AT COASTAL TERMINALS WHERE SEA BREEZE WILL
BE ACTIVE AS INLAND TEMPERATURES REACH 90F. BOUNDARY LAYER
REMAINS MIXED TONIGHT, KEEPING WINDS AT 5-10 KTS WITH GUSTS TO
15 KTS OVERNIGHT. LLWS AFTER 6/7Z TONIGHT THROUGH END OF TAF
PERIOD WITH 35-30 KT WESTERLY WINDS AT 2000 FT.
EXTENDED FORECAST...VFR TO DOMINATE. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
ON MONDAY WITH THE CHANCE FOR ISOLATED RESTRICTIONS DUE TO T-STORMS.
VFR THEN PREVAILS THROUGH THURSDAY.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT...SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE DURING THE
DAY TODAY. WINDS 15-20 KTS BY THIS AFTERNOON AND PERSISTING THROUGH
TONIGHT, WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 25 KTS ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST WHERE
THE SEA BREEZE WILL BE ACTIVE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS 2-3 FT THIS
MORNING INCREASE TO 3-5 FT THIS EVENING AS SW WIND WAVE BUILDS, WITH
2 FT 9 SEC E SWELL STILL MIXED IN.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE
SOUTHWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS MONDAY AFTERNOON, TURNING MODERATE
SOUTHWEST WINDS TO THE NORTH BY EARLY MONDAY EVENING. THE FRONT
COULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH
GUSTY WINDS, MAINLY BETWEEN 2 PM AND 8 PM MONDAY. BEHIND THE
FRONT, INCREASING NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BRING SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY AS
LATE AS TUESDAY EVENING AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
THE EASTERN U.S.
THE GFS MODEL HAS BACKED OFF ITS DEPICTION OF A COASTAL TROUGH
DEVELOPING OFF THE GA/SC COAST WEDNESDAY. THERE IS STILL A HINT OF
THIS FEATURE IN THE LATEST GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS, BUT IMPACTS THIS
FAR NORTH APPEAR LESSENED COMPARED TO WHAT WAS SHOWN 24 HOURS AGO.
MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WEDNESDAY SHOULD VEER EASTERLY AND
DIMINISH THURSDAY AS THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...ILM
KEY MESSAGES...TRA/VAO
DISCUSSION...TRA/VAO
AVIATION...VAO
MARINE...TRA/VAO
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