104
FXUS62 KILM 071819
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
119 PM EST SAT FEB 7 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR THE 18Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING UNSEASONABLY COLD
WEATHER THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING UNSEASONABLY COLD
WEATHER THIS WEEKEND.
SLIGHTLY COLDER AND WINDIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER SE NC
TONIGHT, WARRANTING A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WIND CHILLS NEAR 10
DEGREES. WINDS LOOK TO GO CALMER FOR NE SC AS THE JET ALOFT EXITS
OUR SOUTHERN AREAS MORE QUICKLY, RESULTING IN SPOTS WITH WIND CHILLS
IN THE TEENS BUT ELSEWHERE NEAR 20. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL START
TO BUILD IN SUNDAY MORNING BUT ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON, WITH
WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. SOME MOISTURE FROM THE MIDWEST
BEHIND THE HIGH COULD MAKE ITS WAY DOWN SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN CLOUDS THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE DAY AND
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD AID IN INHIBITING STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH LOWS NEAR IF A BIT WARMER
THAN WHAT THEY WERE SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH THE LACK OF WIND, NO COLD
WEATHER ADVISORY IS EXPECTED. SHOULD THE CLOUDS BE LESS ROBUST OR
CLEAR OUT BEFORE SUNRISE, OUR TRADITIONALLY COOLER SPOTS COULD DROP
BY 5-10 DEGREES FROM THE CURRENT FORECAST.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR. STRONG NW WINDS GUSTING 25-35 KTS WILL START TO ABATE
TONIGHT, GUSTS MORE NEAR 20-25 KTS. THESE SHOULD BE MORE
PREVALENT FOR OUR NC TERMINALS WITH THE JET OVERHEAD LONGER. BY
MIDNIGHT, GUSTS SHOULD BECOME INFREQUENT ENOUGH TO WHERE I'VE
DROPPED THEM FROM THE TAFS. LIGHTER WINDS SHOULD BE IN PLACE BY
SUNDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD.
EXTENDED FORECAST...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS FROM SHALLOW FOG COULD
DEVELOP LATE MON NIGHT AND AGAIN TUE NIGHT. INTERMITTENT SEA
FOG COULD ALSO IMPACT THE COASTAL TERMINALS TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY.
MARINE
THROUGH SUNDAY...STRONG NW WINDS WILL LEAD TO DIMINISHED MARINE
CONDITIONS. A COUPLE GUSTS NEAR AND ABOVE GALE FORCE HAVE BEEN
OBSERVED IN OUR NC COASTAL WATERS DESPITE THE COLD SSTS, SO THE GALE
WARNING WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL WINDS START TO RELAX LATE
TONIGHT OTHERWISE, GUSTS 25-30 KTS OVER OUR SC WATERS WILL KEEP A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN PLACE, WITH THESE CONDITIONS LOOKING TO END
FOR OUR ENTIRE AREA SUNDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD
IN. MUCH LIGHTER WINDS SHOULD BE IN PLACE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
HIGH STARTS TO MOVE OVERHEAD. SEAS 2-5 FT WILL BECOME 2-3 FT
SUNDAY.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THIS PERIOD WITH
SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO START FOLLOWED BY A COLD FROPA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH GUSTS UP TO ~20 KT MOST LIKELY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SEA FOG STARTING TUESDAY NIGHT AND UNTIL THE FROPA AS WARMER AND
MOISTER AIR FROM THE SOUTHWEST MOVES IN OVER THE CHILLY NEARSHORE
WATERS.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST
SUNDAY FOR NCZ087-096-099-105>110.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR AMZ250-252.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ254-256.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...ILM
KEY MESSAGES...LEW
DISCUSSION...LEW
AVIATION...LEW
MARINE...MAS/LEW
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