388
FXUS62 KILM 231841
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
241 PM EDT MON MAR 23 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ACCOMPANYING THE CFP COULD
PRODUCE A 35 TO 45 MPH WIND GUST.
UPDATED 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
KEY MESSAGES
1) COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE, ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS,
WILL OCCUR LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING. A
NOTICEABLE TEMPERATURE CHANGE WILL FOLLOW LATER TONIGHT.
2) BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TUESDAY MAY BRING A CHANCE FOR FROST ON
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING.
3) ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT ON FRIDAY. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE, ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS, WILL OCCUR LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS
EVENING. A NOTICEABLE TEMPERATURE CHANGE WILL FOLLOW LATER
TONIGHT.
THE WARMTH THIS AFTERNOON MAY CHALLENGE A FEW OF THESE
RECORD HIGH TEMPS.
WILMINGTON NC..........94 IN 1907
LUMBERTON NC...........91 IN 1907
N MYRTLE BEACH SC......85 IN 2011
FLORENCE SC............88 IN 1995
COLD FRONT DROPPING TO THE SE WILL STRUGGLE WITH AVAILABLE
MOISTURE TO CONJURE UP A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS IT TRACKS ACROSS
THE FORECAST REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON THRU THIS EVENING.
WITH NW FLOW ALOFT, A SCOURING EFFECT TO OCCUR DUE TO THIS
DOWNSLOPE TRAJECTORY. STILL EXPECT A FEW TSTORMS AND WITH THE
POSSIBLE INTERACTION WITH THE SOMEWHAT PINNED SEA BREEZE. COULD
POTENTIALLY OBSERVE ISOLATED 30 TO 40+ MPH WIND GUSTS FROM ANY
OF THESE MATURE TSTORMS.
SKIES PARTIALLY CLEAR OUT LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT BUT
THE BIG PICTURE WILL BE THE BREEZY AND GUSTY N TO NE WINDS IN
THE WAKE OF THE COLD FROPA. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE
ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NE STATES RESULTING IN THE COMBINED
EFFECTS OF A TIGHTENED SFC PG AND CAA ACROSS THE FA. THE
PREVIOUS NIGHT TIME LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S WILL BE
REPLACED WITH LOW TO MID 40S, OUCH!, COME TUE MORNING ALONG
WITH THAT STIFF NE BREEZE.
KEY MESSAGE 2: BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TUESDAY MAY BRING A
CHANCE FOR FROST ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OFF OF THE DELMARVA COASTLINE TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE AREA
OF DRY HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD ALLOW MUCH OF THE AREA TO REACH THE
UPPER 30S. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR
NORTH AND THE EXITING COLD FRONT TO OUR SOUTH WILL KEEP BOUNDARY
LAYER WINDS ELEVATED FOR ALL COASTAL AREAS AND MOST OF
NORTHEAST SC. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE AROUND 40 DEGREES IN THESE
AREAS.
DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT AND WEAK LIFT NEAR THE AXIS OF AN UPPER
TROUGH SHOULD PRODUCE SOME SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS
AROUND MIDNIGHT. THIS TROUGH AXIS WILL ALSO PROMOTE SOME
STRONGER WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER THROUGH SUNRISE. THESE
FACTORS MEAN THAT FROST IS UNLIKELY TO DEVELOP. HOWEVER,
PROBABILITIES FOR TEMPERATURES BELOW 37 DEGREES (ROUGH ESTIMATE
OF MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE FOR PATCHY FROST) ARE AROUND 10-20% FOR
OUR INLAND COUNTIES. THE 10TH PERCENTILE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE FOR
LBT IS 37 DEGREES. REGARDLESS, WORST CASE SCENARIO APPEARS THAT
THIS WILL BE AN ISOLATED, LOW-IMPACT FROST EVENT, IF IT OCCURS.
.KEY MESSAGE 3: ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF
A STRONG COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE THIS
WEEK. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE,
BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING IS LOW AT THIS TIME. WHILE THE
TIMING OF THE FRONT IS THE PRIMARY POINT OF UNCERTAINTY, THERE
ARE SOME QUESTIONS REGARDING AVAILABLE INSTABILITY. THIS IS IN
PART DUE TO THE EXISTENCE OF A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHERN US DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATE PORTIONS OF THIS WEEK. AS
THIS RIDGE DEGRADES, A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION OVER THE CAROLINAS
WILL PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH CONVECTIVE INHIBITION (ALONG WITH DRY
AIR ALOFT) TO HINDER THE PRODUCTION OF INSTABILITY. A
CONDITIONALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH VERY WARM SURFACE
TEMPERATURES, DRY AIR ABOVE THE LFC, AND RESPECTABLE LAPSE RATES
COULD FAVOR A STRONG STORM OR TWO, IF ANY DEVELOP.
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT, TEMPERATURES WILL SOAR INTO THE MID AND
UPPER 80S INLAND. A FEW AREAS COULD APPROACH RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES. COASTAL AREAS WILL PEAK IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S
BEHIND A COOLING SEA BREEZE. THE RECORD HIGH FOR FLORENCE, SC ON
FRIDAY, MARCH 27TH IS 89 DEGREES, PREVIOUSLY SET IN 2021. THE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR LUMBERTON, NC FOR FRIDAY, MARCH
27TH IS 87 DEGREES, SET IN CONSECUTIVE YEARS: 1949 AND 1950.
PROBABILITIES FOR TYING OR BREAKING THESE RECORDS CURRENTLY SITS
AT AROUND 20%.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THIS PERIOD. A COLD FRONT DROPPING
SOUTHWARD WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHEAST NC AND NORTHEAST SC
FROM MID AFTERNOON THRU EARLY THIS EVENING. WIDELY SCATTERED
CONVECTION ALONG OR AHEAD OF IT MAY PRODUCE BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS IF A TERMINAL IS ABLE TO EXPERIENCE A TSTRM. BUT WILL
ADVERTISE IN PROB30 GROUPS WHILE ALSO HIGHLIGHTING THE
POTENTIAL WIND GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH THEM. SKIES WILL PARTIALLY
CLEAR OVERNIGHT WITH STRATOCU CEILINGS INITIALLY RISING TO HIGH
ALTOCU OR LOW CIRRUS TUE MORNING. WINDS GENERALLY W-NW THIS
AFTERNOON EXCEPT S-SW AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST DUE TO A PINNED SEA
BREEZE. AFTER THE CFP, WINDS VEER TO THE N INITIALLY THIS
EVENING THEN GUSTY NE THERE-AFTER THRU THE END OF THE 18Z 24 HR
PERIOD.
EXTENDED FORECAST...THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF GROUND FOG THURSDAY
MORNING, OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT...SCA ALREADY IN EFFECT FOR POST COLD FRONTAL
GUSTY NE WINDS.
MODERATE SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. THE CFP WILL OCCUR FROM LATE THIS
AFTERNOON FOR THE NC WATERS AND EARLY THIS EVENING FOR THE SC
WATERS. AFTER THE FROPA, WINDS WILL VEER TO THE N, THEN
BECOMING GUSTY NE AS THE CAA SURGE COMBINES WITH THE TIGHTENED
SFC PG AS STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES IN FROM THE NE
STATES. STRONG SCA CONDITIONS WILL OVERSPREAD THE WATERS LATER
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. COULD OBSERVE A FEW GALE FORCE 35 KT
WIND GUSTS BUT THE FREQUENCY REMAINS IN QUESTION AND THEREFORE
WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THE STRONG SCA. SEAS WILL BE A
FUNCTION OF WIND DRIVEN WAVES WITH 6 SECONDS OR LESS PERIODS. A
DECAYING UNDERLYING 10 SECOND PERIOD EASTERLY SWELL WILL
CONTINUE.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY... HIGH PRESSURE JUST OFF OF THE
DELMARVA COAST WILL MAINTAIN NORTHEAST WINDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
BEFORE MOVING EASTWARD. SEAS SHOULD HOVER AROUND 3-5 FEET. ONSHORE
FLOW WILL BECOME LIGHT LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. SEAS RELAX
IN THE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS; AROUND 2 FEET. AS ONSHORE
TEMPERATURES EACH AFTERNOON, SOME ENHANCEMENT IS POSSIBLE ALONG
THE SEA BREEZE. A STRONGER GRADIENT BECOMES ESTABLISHED ON
THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES
OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM EDT
WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-256.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...DCH
KEY MESSAGES...DCH/21
DISCUSSION...DCH/TRA/21
AVIATION...DCH
MARINE...DCH/21
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