213
FXUS62 KILM 061820
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
220 PM EDT SUN JUL 6 2025
SYNOPSIS
UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AFTER
SOMEWHAT DRIER CONDITIONS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS THE BERMUDA
HIGH BECOMES THE DOMINANT FEATURE GENERATING LOCAL WEATHER.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
WHAT'S LEFT OF CHANTAL WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE NORTH
TONIGHT WHILE DISSIPATING. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FEW LIGHT BANDS
STREAMING ASHORE IN THE CAPE FEAR REGION THE PRECIP LOOKS ABOUT DONE
FOR THE DAY UNLESS SOME WRAP-AROUND QPF MANIFESTS...STARTING TO HAVE
DOUBT BUT WILL LEAVE POPS AS-IS FOR NOW. CLEARING SKIES WILL BE
GRADUAL AT FIRST AND THEN MORE PRONOUNCED AFTER DARK, POSSIBLY
SETTING THE AREA UP FOR SOME FOG IF WIND ABATES SUFFICIENTLY.
MONDAY'S WEATHER MAP WILL FEATURE A PIEDMONT TROUGH TAKING UP
RESIDENCE BEHIND CHANTAL AND A SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING THE NC/VA
BORDER. WHERE THE FORCING OF THE TWO ALIGN THERE SHOULD BE A
SEASONABLE SCATTERING OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS (MAINLY INLAND) BUT
WITH A STORM MOTION CONTAINING ENOUGH OF AN EASTERLY COMPONENT THAT
ALL AREAS WILL HAVE POPS. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL TAPER SLIGHTLY
TOWARDS THE COAST WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE LOWER.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
THE PIEDMONT TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE ON TUESDAY, NOT UNLIKE MONDAY.
THE MID LEVEL RIDGE OVERHEAD WILL BE BUILDING SLIGHTLY LEAVING US
SUSCEPTIBLE TO FEWER AND WEAKER SHORTWAVES. WITH TEMPERATURES ON THE
RISE THOUGH STRONGER INSTABILITY SHOULD DEVELOP, OFFSETTING THE
AFOREMENTIONED ARGUMENT FOR LESSER CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. THE END
RESULT WILL BE ANOTHER AFTERNOON OF AREA-WIDE STORMS WITH COVERAGE
CAPPED AT ABOUT 40 PERCENT. THE INCREASED INSTABILITY HAS SPC
HIGHLIGHTING THE AREA IN MARGINAL FOR SEVERE AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW THE CALLING CARD OF WET DOWNBURSTS WITH HEALTHY INSTABILITY
ABOVE A CU LAYER AT 6KFT AND AN INVERTED SOUNDING BELOW THIS LAYER.
TUESDAY'S HI VALUES COULD TAKE A RUN AT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THE MAIN MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE OFFSHORE FOR MOST OF THE LONG TERM,
WITH A SECONDARY CENTER WELL TO OUR WEST. IN THE MID LEVELS THEN
THIS PUTS US IN A LOCAL WEAKNESS IN THE HEIGHT FIELD. THIS SHOULD
BE ENOUGH TO FOSTER AT LEAST SEASONABLE COVERAGE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS (THOUGH PERSISTENT SHORTWAVE ENERGY COULD ALLOW FOR
SHALLOW CONVECTION TO LINGER JUST ABOUT ANY NIGHT BUT THIS CAN BE
TOUGH TO FORECAST IN THE LONGER TERM) IF NOT SOME RATHER UNSETTLED
MID TO LATE WEEK WEATHER. WITH THE ADDED CONVECTIVE COVERAGE THE HI
VALUES SHOULD START TO BACK AWAY FROM ADVISORY LEVELS.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
WEAKENING WINDS WILL VEER OR TURN COUNTERCLOCKWISE IN DIRECTION
AS CHANTAL CONTINUES TO EXIT TO THE NORTH. SKIES WILL SLOWLY
IMPROVE TO MVFR THIS EVENING AND VFR OVERNIGHT SAVE FOR WHATEVER
LOWERED CIGS HANG ON OVER FAR NORTHERN ZONES. SOME OF THE "RULE
OF THUMB" TECHNIQUES HAVE SUGGESTED THAT SOME LIGHT FOG MAY
DEVELOP. MOST STATISTICAL GUIDANCE DOES NOT HOWEVER AND PAIR
THIS WITH A CONTINUATION OF LIGHT BREEZE BY SUNUP HAVE LEFT OUT
OF TAFS FOR NOW.
MARINE
THROUGH MONDAY... TROPICAL HEADLINES LOWERED SCA, AS IS USUALLY
THE CASE AS WIND AND SEAS BOTH ABATE MORE SLOWLY THAN TROPICAL
THREATS AS THEY EXIT NORTHWARD. AS WHAT'S LEFT OF CHANTAL CONTINUES
TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA OUR NW QUICKLY TURN BACK TO SW AND THEN S
TODAY ALL WHILE ABATING. SCA TO DROP TONIGHT AS SW WIND LOOKS TO
DOMINATE THE FORECAST AS BERMUDA HIGH TAKES OVER.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... LITTLE TO DISTURB THE BERMUDA HIGH
THROUGH THE PERIOD, IT'S RESULTING SWRLY FLOW SLIGHTLY BOLSTERED BY
SEMI-PERMANENT PIEDMONT TROUGH. A LONGER PERIOD SERLY SWELL WILL BE
PRESENT ALONG WITH THE SHORTER PERIOD WIND CHOP.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
OTHER - RIP CURRENTS: LINGERING LARGE SWELL FROM TROPICAL STORM
CHANTAL WILL LEAD TO HIGH SURF HEIGHTS AND A HIGH RIP CURRENT
RISK TODAY, WITH THE HIGH RIP RISK POTENTIALLY CONTINUING INTO
MONDAY AS WELL.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ106-
108-110.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ110.
SC...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ054-
056.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ054-056.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ250-
252-254-256.
SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...MBB
NEAR TERM...MBB
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MBB
MARINE...ILM
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