415
FXUS62 KILM 190022
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
822 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO MAJOR CHANGES COMING DOWN THE TRACK WITH THE AFTERNOON
FORECAST CYCLE. AVIATION DISCUSSION HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THE 00Z
TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE SUNDAY.
- 2) COOLER TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY BECOME WARM AGAIN BY
WEDNESDAY WITH NO RAIN IN SIGHT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY.
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
SUNDAY, MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA.
KEY MESSAGE 2
COOLER TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY BECOME
WARM AGAIN BY WEDNESDAY WITH NO RAIN IN SIGHT.
COLD FRONT WILL BE OFFSHORE BY SUNDAY NIGHT, ALLOWING THE AREA TO
DRY OUT FAST. SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT LOOK RATHER CHILLY, WITH
LOWS IN THE LOW-TO-MID 40S (NO WORRIES FOR FROST THOUGH). HIGHS IN
THE LOW-TO-MID 70S MONDAY, JUST A TOUCH BELOW NORMAL FOR MID-LATE
APRIL.
STRONGER COLD AIR ADVECTION COMES IN BY TUESDAY, AND HIGHS MAY
STRUGGLE TO 70 IN SOME SPOTS IN SOUTHEAST NC. FROM THERE, RIDGING
STARTS TO BUILD ALOFT, AND CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SLIPS INTO THE
SOUTHEAST AND OFFSHORE THROUGHOUT THE WEEK, TRIGGERING AIR MASS
MODIFICATION. WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY, TEMPERATURES WARM UP
A BIT EVERYDAY, EASILY GETTING BACK INTO THE 80S FOR MOST. 90S MAY
COME INTO PLAY AGAIN BY NEXT FRIDAY.
NOT A HINT OF RAIN IN SIGHT FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK. A FRONT MAY MOVE
IN AGAIN LATE NEXT WEEKEND, BUT PROBABLY WON'T DO MUCH TO TOUCH THE
ONGOING DROUGHT.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR WITH SWRLY WINDS THAT WILL NOT DECOUPLE MUCH OVERNIGHT DUE
TO THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT THAT TURNS FLOW TO NW SUNDAY
LATE AM/MIDDAY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE HARD- PRESSED TO BRING
ANYTHING OTHER THAN ISOLATED, SHORT- LIVED SHOWERS THAT HAVE
BEEN RELEGATED TO EARLY PM PROB30S. THEIR VSBY AND CIG FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE MVFR AT MOST.
EXTENDED FORECAST...NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND SUNDAY'S COLD FRONT
COULD GUST TO 25 KNOTS SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
MARINE
THROUGH SUNDAY...WITHIN 20 NM, S TO SW WINDS 10 TO 15 KT WITH
HIGHER GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. SEAS SHOULD RUN 2 TO 4 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
FROM 20 TO 60 NM OUT, EXPECT S TO SW WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT THIS
AFTERNOON WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT TONIGHT AND A SOLID 20 KT
SUNDAY BEFORE BECOMING WEST IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS OF 2 TO 3 FT
THIS AFTERNOON WILL BUILD TO 4 TO 5 FT WITH 6 FOOTERS POSSIBLE
LATER IN THE DAY.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZE OUT OF
THE NNE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT. GUSTS MAY OCCASIONALLY REACH UP
TO 25 KTS AT TIMES IN THE EVENING, BUT IT DOES NOT APPEAR
CONSISTENT ENOUGH TO WARRANT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AT THIS
TIME. GRADIENT WINDS LOOSEN DOWN TO A GENTLE BREEZE MONDAY
AFTERNOON. SEAS ARE AT 2-4 FT ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS, GOING UP
TOWARDS 5-6 FT ALONG THE OFFSHORE WATERS. MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING, A MUCH WEAKER, SUBTLE FRONT PUSHES INTO THE
WATERS, ALLOWING A MODERATE BREEZE TO POKE UP OUT OF THE NNE
AGAIN THROUGH LATE TUESDAY MORNING. SEAS COME DOWN SLIGHTLY
TOWARDS 2-4 FT EVERYWHERE. WINDS THEN VEER TO A SSW COMPONENT
LATE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, MOSTLY OPERATING BETWEEN A
MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZE. SEAS LOCK IN AT 1-3 FT ALONG THE
COASTAL WATERS, 3-4 FT ALONG THE OFFSHORE WATERS.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR NCZ107.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...MBB
KEY MESSAGES...IGB/31
DISCUSSION...IGB/31
AVIATION...MBB
MARINE...IGB/31
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