773
FXUS62 KILM 231910
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
210 PM EST SUN FEB 23 2020
SYNOPSIS
A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN IN THE DAYS AHEAD, REACHING TO
AROUND 70 DEGREES INLAND BY TUESDAY. THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT
BRINGS A CHANCE OF RAIN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. A MAINLY DRY
COLD FRONT, IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP OFF THE COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT,
BRINGING COOLER AIR TO THE REGION THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES TO THE WEST TODAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNING
TO THE REGION. HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE LOWER 60S
WHICH IS ABOUT NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. A WARM FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE REGION TO THE SOUTH, AND THE COMBINATION OF WARMER
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING IN THE LOWER 40S TONIGHT. MOISTURE FROM
THE ADVANCING FRONT WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN MONDAY, INCREASING
FOR THE AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT. LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN IS
POSSIBLE, PERHAPS HEAVY AT TIMES IN STRONGER SHOWERS. MINOR
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IN LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS,
INCLUDING PONDING OF WATER ON AREA ROADWAYS.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
MOST OF THE PERIOD WILL BE WARM BUT ALSO RAINY AS WE REMAIN AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. MID LEVEL FLOW WILL BE WSW AND VORTICITY-
LADEN SO RAIN CHANCES WILL BE QUITE HIGH BUT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
GETS SHUNTED OFFSHORE VERY EARLY IN THE PERIOD LIMITING QPF
PROSPECTS.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
TRAILING ENERGY ALOFT NOW KEEPS RAIN IN THE FORECAST BUT AS
MENTIONED ABOVE THE DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE OFF THE COAST AND RAINFALL
AMOUNTS PRETTY PALTRY. STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING BUT THE UPPER WAVE REMAINS STRONG ENOUGH FOR A FEW LINGERING
SPRINKLES ACCORDING TO SOME GUIDANCE, WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE. COLD
AND DRY ADVECTION IS ON TAP FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD
INCLUDING A SECONDARY PUSH OF CHILLIER AIR FRIDAY NIGHT. THOUGH
THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW CLIMATOLOGY IT DOES NOT APPEAR TO
BE QUITE THE MAGNITUDE OF COLD EXPERIENCED THESE LAST FEW DAYS.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THE VFR TREND THAT WE HAVE SEEN OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE CRITICAL TAF PERIOD ACROSS THE AREA. CEILINGS
WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO FALL DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS, AS
A WARM FRONT PUSHES FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. THE POSSIBILITY FOR SHOWERS
AND MVFR CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN INTRODUCED FOR KFLO AND KLBT TOWARDS
THE END OF THE 24-HOUR TAF PERIOD.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...FRONTAL PASSAGE BRINGS UNSETTLED WEATHER MONDAY,
TUESDAY, AND POSSIBLY PARTS OF WEDNESDAY. AFTER THAT, WE'LL BE DRY,
CLEAR AND COLD, SO FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS SHOULDN'T BE AN ISSUE.
MARINE
QUIET MARINE CONDITIONS OFFSHORE TODAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE WITH
WINDS FROM THE SOUTH UNDER 10 KTS AND WAVES BETWEEN 1 AND 2 FEET
WITH ESE SWELL BETWEEN 10 AND 12 SECONDS. WARM FRONT APPROACHES
OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS WITH CONTINUED LIGHT WIND/WAVE ACTIVITY AND
CHANCES FOR A THUNDERSTORM OUT BEYOND 20 NM. AS WARM FRONT MOVES
WARM AND MOIST AIR OVER THE COLDER COASTAL WATERS, PATCHY SEA FOG
WILL BECOME A POSSIBILITY WITH AS LOW AS 3 NM, POTENTIALLY LOWER
VISIBILITY UNDER STRONGER RAIN SHOWERS.
SOUTHWESTERLY PREFRONTAL WIND FIELDS WILL STRENGTHEN TO MINIMAL
ADVISORY LEVELS LATER TUESDAY. SEAS TOO COULD REACH ADVISORY-WORTHY
6 FT HEIGHTS. FRONTAL PASSAGE LATER WEDNESDAY WILL TURN FLOW TO A
MORE OFFSHORE DIRECTION WHILE WIND SPEEDS ALSO ABATE SLIGHTLY; BOTH
OF WHICH FAVOR A DECREASE IN SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT EVEN AS THE
WIND SHIFT COULD STEEPEN FACES/SHORTEN DOMINANT PERIOD. WEST WINDS
WILL REMAIN THROUGH FRIDAY AS COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND
THE FRONT.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...MCK
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...IGB
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