045
FXUS62 KILM 311907
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
307 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO MAJOR CHANGES COMING DOWN THE TRACK AS WE ROUND 3 PM EDT.
CANCELLED THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THE LOWER CAPE FEAR
RIVER. THIS EVENING'S HIGH TIDE IS NO LONGER EXPECTED TO REACH
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING THRESHOLDS.
ELSEWHERE, UPDATED THE AVIATION SECTION FOR THE 18Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS LINGER THROUGH SATURDAY.
- 2) UNSETTLED WEATHER EXPECTED SUNDAY, AND COULD LAST THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS LINGER THROUGH
SATURDAY.
MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS CONTINUING TO SLOWLY PUSH OFFSHORE, WHILE A
MODEST SHORTWAVE RIDGE TAKES ITS PLACE. TODAY'S DIURNAL CUMULUS WILL
LINGER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE FIZZLING OUT
OVERNIGHT. SOME VERY ISOLATED, VERY BRIEF SHOWERS HAVE BEEN NOTED
ALONG THE SEABREEZE IN GEORGETOWN COUNTY. THESE ISOLATED SHOWERS
WILL ALSO DIE OFF BY SUNSET THIS EVENING. LOWS TONIGHT HOVER AROUND
70 INLAND, MID 70S AT THE COAST.
SATURDAY LOOKS PRETTY SIMILAR TO WHAT WE'VE SEEN TODAY. HIGHS HIT
THE LOWER 90S INLAND, UPPER 80S AT THE COAST. DIURNAL CUMULUS WILL
GET KICKED UP AGAIN BY 12-1 PM SATURDAY AFTERNOON, AND THE SEABREEZE
WILL TRY TO GENERATE A BRIEF SHOWER OR TWO. GRADIENT WINDS WILL
INCREASE, MEANING THERE WILL BE A MORE NOTICEABLE BREEZE OUT OF THE
SE AT 10-15 MPH.
KEY MESSAGE 2
UNSETTLED WEATHER EXPECTED SUNDAY, AND COULD LAST
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
PATTERN FLIP ON THE WAY SUNDAY. AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER PARTS OF
IOWA AND MINNESOTA WILL DEEPEN WITH AN ASSOCIATED TROUGH AND MOVE
TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS TROUGH REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY FOR 2-
3 DAYS, ALLOWING FOR PLENTY OF RICH SW FLOW ALOFT TO USHER IN PLENTY
OF MOISTURE. A TROPICAL ATMOSPHERE RETURNS, MINUS THE TROPICAL
SYSTEM. PRECIPITABLE WATER (PWAT) VALUES RAPIDLY KICK UP TOWARDS
2.25" BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY AUGUST.
MEANWHILE, AT THE SURFACE, AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY WELL
OFFSHORE WILL SNEAK BACK UP TOWARDS THE COASTLINE, ALLOWING FOR EVEN
MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS AND SOME LOW-LEVEL LIFT.
PUT ALL THESE PIECES TOGETHER, AND YOU GET A SUSTAINABLE RAIN MAKER
THAT APPEARS TO LAST THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. THERE ARE STILL
QUESTIONS ON WHERE THE BEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS SET UP, WHICH IS
DEPENDENT UPON THE EXACT LOCATION AND LAYOUT OF THE TROUGH ALOFT AND
TO THE WEST. SOME AREAS MAY SCORE WITH SOME RELATIVELY THIN RIBBONS
OF MOISTURE THAT COULD DROP MULTIPLE INCHES OF RAIN WITHIN A COUPLE
OF HOURS.
THE DECENT SLUG OF RAIN THAT WE RECORDED LAST WEEK DID IMPROVE THE
DROUGHT VERY SLIGHTLY, BUT NEARLY HALF OF THE AREA (BASICALLY EAST
OF I-95) IS STILL UNDER AN EXTREME TO EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT. WE STILL
HAVE A LONG WAY TO GO FOR SUBSTANTIAL DROUGHT RELIEF.
UPPER PATTERN WEAKENS BY WEDNESDAY, WITH THE UPPER LOW POTENTIALLY
BECOMING A CUTOFF LOW SOMEWHERE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. RAIN CHANCES
STILL PERSIST WEDNESDAY, BUT IT DOESN'T LOOK AS ORGANIZED THIS TIME
AROUND.
DUE TO CLOUDS AND RAIN, HIGHS LINGER IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.
LOWS EACH NIGHT IN THE LOWER 70S.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
NOTHING BUT VFR THROUGH THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. DIURNAL CUMULUS DECK HAS
POPPED UP AT 6000-8000 FT THIS AFTERNOON. SEABREEZE HAS ALLOWED FOR
SE TO SSE WINDS AT 7-9 KTS AT THE COAST, WHILE THE INLAND TERMINALS
REMAIN AT A LIGHT, VARIABLE BREEZE. SEABREEZE COMES DOWN THIS
EVENING, AND WINDS SHOULD BE EITHER CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD, GRADIENT
WINDS PICK UP TOWARDS 8-10 KTS OUT OF THE SE, WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO
18-20 KTS POSSIBLE. ANOTHER CUMULUS DECK SHOULD SHOW UP BY 16-17Z
SATURDAY.
EXTENDED FORECAST...VFR LIKELY THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. AT LEAST
TRANSIENT MVFR TO IFR RESTRICTIONS BECOME LIKELY BETWEEN SUNDAY AND
TUESDAY AS A SLOW-MOVING DISTURBANCE BRINGS ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND
SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS BACK INTO THE PICTURE.
THIS SYSTEM COULD LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY, BUT CONFIDENCE IS
LOWER THERE.
MARINE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...GENTLE BREEZE OUT OF THE SE WILL GIVE WAY TO
A MODERATE BREEZE BY SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM.
SEAS LINGER AT 2-3 FT THROUGHOUT THIS TIME. BY SUNDAY, THE
PATTERN CHANGES, AIDED BY AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT SURGES
NORTHWARD BACK THROUGH THE WATERS, AND AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE TO THE WEST. PLENTY OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
THE WAY SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. SSW WINDS TAKE HOLD LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT, HOLDING ALL THE WAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. GRADIENT
WINDS TIGHTEN CONSIDERABLY SUNDAY AND MONDAY, AND ADVISORY LEVEL
WINDS AND SEAS APPEAR TO BE NEARLY CERTAIN. WINDS COME BACK DOWN
TOWARDS A MODERATE BREEZE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, WHILE SEAS
GRADUALLY IMPROVE TOWARDS 3-5 FT SEAS ON TUESDAY, 2-3 FT SEAS ON
WEDNESDAY.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...IGB
KEY MESSAGES...IGB
DISCUSSION...IGB
AVIATION...IGB
MARINE...IGB
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