786
FXUS62 KILM 280613
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
213 AM EDT SUN JUN 28 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ALL SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
2) HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK,
ESPECIALLY LATE WEEK.
3) LOW RISK FOR TROPICAL/SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT OFF THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST MID WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING.
AN INLAND TROUGH, ALONG WITH THE SEA BREEZE AND A MCV WILL PROVIDE
LIFT FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. DEEP LAYER SHEAR LOOKS MARGINAL FOR MUCH
ORGANIZED CONVECTION BUT SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT AT LEAST A FEW
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH THE SPC HIGHLIGHTING A 1 OUT OF 5 RISK FOR
SEVERE STORMS FOR ALL OF SE NC & NE SC.
KEY MESSAGE 2...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR MUCH
OF THE WEEK, ESPECIALLY AT THE END OF THE WEEK.
HEAT INDICES WILL BE NEAR LOW-END HEAT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS (~105
DEG) TODAY DUE TO HIGHS IN THE MID 90S COUPLED WITH MODERATE LEVELS
OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY, MAINLY NEAR THE COAST WHERE DEWPOINTS WILL BE
HIGHEST. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE LACK OF COVERAGE/DURATION WE OPTED TO
NOT RAISE AN ADVISORY. LOOKS LIKE PARTS OF HORRY/BRUNSWICK/COLUMBUS
COUNTIES WILL SEE THE WORST CONDITIONS. HOWEVER, EVERYONE IS
ENCOURAGED TO TAKE PROPER PRECAUTIONS.
IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE SOME REPRIEVE FROM THE HEAT MONDAY AND
TUESDAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT BEFORE THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY RETURNS
STARTING WEDNESDAY, AND ESPECIALLY LATE WEEK. HEAT ADVISORIES
ARE POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS THURSDAY BUT MORE LIKELY FRIDAY/SATURDAY
WHEN EXTREME HEAT WARNINGS ARE ALSO NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR
THE COASTAL COUNTIES.
CHECK OUT OUR HEAT PAGE (WEATHER.GOV/ILM/HEAT) FOR MORE HEAT FORECAST/SAFETY
INFO.
KEY MESSAGE 3...LOW RISK FOR TROPICAL/SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT
OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST MID WEEK.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FORM OFF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED
STATES COAST TOWARD MID WEEK, MAINLY SOUTH OF SE NC & NE SC,
AND IT COULD ATTAIN TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AS IT DRIFTS TOWARD
THE WEST THROUGH MID-WEEK. THE NHC IS HIGHLIGHTING A LOW CHANCE
FOR TROPICAL/SUBTROPICAL DEVELOPMENT WITH A SIMILAR RISK FOR
ANY SIGNIFICANT DIRECT IMPACTS TO SE NC & NE SC AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
06Z SUN THRU 06Z MON: OVERALL, EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL.
DECENT CHANCE OF IMPACTS FROM SHOWERS/STORMS THIS AFTN/EVE, ENDING
LATEST NEAR THE COAST, AS A TROUGH, SEA BREEZE AND UPPER DISTURBANCE
IMPACT THE AREA.
06Z MON THRU THU...MOSTLY VFR. LOW CLOUDS POSSIBLE LATE SUN NIGHT
INTO MON MORNING AND AGAIN MON/TUE NIGHTS, MAINLY IN NC. SOME
AFTN/EVE SHOWERS/STORMS ALONG THE SEA BREEZE MON, MAINLY IMPACTING
ILM/CRE/MYR. GENERALLY RAIN-FREE STARTING TUE WITH JUST LOW CHANCES
INLAND SAT.
MARINE
SUNDAY THRU THURSDAY...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE TO GIVE WAY TO A
PASSING WEAK COLD FRONT TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTH
WILL THEN COMBINE WITH POTENTIAL LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT
OFFSHORE WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA TO KEEP NORTHERLY WINDS INTO MID
WEEK BEFORE THE LOW LIKELY MOVES WESTWARD AND ONSHORE. THE NHC
GIVES THIS LOW A LOW CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL/SUBTROPICAL
SYSTEM WHILE IT REMAINS OVER WATER.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 6 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH
THIS EVENING FOR NCZ106-108.
SC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 6 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH
THIS EVENING FOR SCZ054-056.
MARINE...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...ILM
KEY MESSAGES...RJB
DISCUSSION...RJB
AVIATION...RJB
MARINE...RJB
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