898
FXUS62 KILM 140745
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
345 AM EDT WED APR 14 2021
SYNOPSIS
GENERALLY DRY AND WARM WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS.
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED NEXT WEEKEND WITH LOW
RAIN CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OFFSHORE.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOCAL
AREA WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE TN VALLEY.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT TODAY OVER THE CAROLINAS EXPECT A DRY DAY IN
MOST AREAS AS MOISTURE PROFILES ARE MEAGER AND FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT AND MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL
REMAIN OFF TO THE W. EXPECT A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND WARMER TEMPS THAN YESTERDAY...HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE 70S AT THE COAST TO MID 80S INLAND. RAIN CHANCES THEN
INCREASE THIS EVENING AS A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM
THE W AND MOISTURE INCREASES FROM THE SFC UP TO 500 MB. AFTER A
POSSIBLE BREAK IN THE PCPN THU MORNING, CHANCES RAMP BACK UP THU
AFTN AS THE MAIN COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA, WITH THE HIGHEST
CHANCES (50-60%) OVER SE AREAS WHERE THE BEST MOISTURE WILL
RESIDE. MAINLY JUST LIGHT RAIN EXPECTED WITH NO THUNDER CARRIED
IN THE FORECAST. TEMPS THU COOLER THAN TODAY DUE TO THE
CLOUDINESS AND SHRAS...HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 70S.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT,
THERE COULD BE LINGERING LIGHT RAIN ALONG THE COAST AFTER
SUNSET. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH QUICKLY AROUND MIDNIGHT
WITH A SHARP DECREASE IN TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS BEHIND IT. RIDGING
FROM THE WEST- NORTHWEST FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WILL
MAINTAIN CAA AND DRY WEATHER. SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS FOR
THE SHORT TERM, WITH LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S, HIGHS
FRIDAY AROUND 70, AND LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT AROUND 50.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
LATE SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL IMPACTED BY A SERIES OF WEAK
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST, AS
ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IS EJECTED ACROSS THE REGION. THE
FIRST ONE LATE SATURDAY CURRENTLY HAS THE BEST AGREEMENT AMONGST
GUIDANCE, AND CLOSE TO THE COAST, TO WARRANT CHANCE POPS FOR
MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. LATEST GUIDANCE KEEPS
MOST OF THE MOISTURE SUNDAY AND MONDAY OFFSHORE, WITH ONLY LOW
RAIN CHANCES CLOSER TO THE COAST IN THE FORECAST. HIGHS AROUND
70 SATURDAY WILL INCREASE TO NEAR NORMAL SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LIGHT WINDS
SHOULD BECOME SOUTHERLY DURING THE DAY, AND WILL INCREASE
SUBSTANTIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE COAST DUE TO THE
SEABREEZE CIRCULATION. GUSTS OVER 20 KNOTS SHOULD DEVELOP AFTER
18-19Z AT CRE, MYR, AND ILM.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR WILL DOMINATE. A WEAK FRONT THURSDAY AND
LOW PRESSURE PASSING OFFSHORE SATURDAY COULD BRING LOWER
CEILINGS, BUT IFR CONDITIONS DO NOT APPEAR LIKELY AT THIS TIME.
MARINE
THROUGH THURSDAY... GENERAL TREND THROUGH THE DAY TODAY WILL BE
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. AFTER COLLABORATION WITH
NEIGHBORING OFFICES AND LOOKING AT LATEST HIRES GUIDANCE,
DECIDED TO HOIST A SHORT SCA JUST FOR TONIGHT DURING THE TIME OF
PEAK WINDS WHEN FREQUENT SW GUSTS TO 25 KT ARE EXPECTED. SEAS
MAINLY REACHING 5 FT. SOME SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT IN MARINE
CONDITIONS THEN FOR DAYTIME THU BEFORE THE MAIN COLD FROPA,
THOUGH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT ARE STILL EXPECTED ALL DAY.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
WILL QUICKLY TURN NORTHERLY THURSDAY NIGHT BEHIND A STRONG COLD
FRONT. NORTH WINDS 15-20 KTS FRIDAY MORNING WILL WEAKEN QUITE A
BIT DURING THE DAY AS TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT DISAPPEARS. WINDS
AROUND 10 KTS OR LESS WILL BRIEFLY BACK TO SOUTHWESTERLY FRIDAY
EVENING, BEFORE TURNING CLOCKWISE 360 DEGREES OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE WATERS LATE
SATURDAY. WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS UNDER 10 KTS
THROUGH SUNDAY WITH SEVERAL CHANGES TO WIND DIRECTION AS LOW
MOVES OFF TO THE NE, WEAK BOUNDARY DEVELOPS OFFSHORE, AND A
SECOND LOW LOOKS TO DEVELOP TO THE SOUTH LATE SUNDAY. SEAS 3 TO
4 FT THURSDAY NIGHT DUE TO WEAKENING S WIND WAVE WILL LOWER TO
AROUND 2 FT FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, COMBINATION OF WIND CHOP
AND PERSISTING 1-2 FT 10S E SWELL.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EDT
THURSDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-256.
SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...MAS
SHORT TERM...VAO
LONG TERM...VAO
AVIATION...MAS
MARINE...MAS/VAO
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page