667  
FXUS62 KILM 190752  
AFDILM  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC  
352 AM EDT THU SEP 19 2019  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
AUTUMN-LIKE AIR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY AS CANADIAN HIGH  
PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH. A WARMUP WILL BEGIN SATURDAY BUT  
CONDITIONS ARE TO REMAIN DRY.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
AN UNCOMMON AIR MASS OF LATE, IN THAT BOTH MIN-T/MAX-T TO HOLD BELOW  
CLIMATOLOGY, THE BULK OF LOCALS NOT TO CRACK THE 80 DEGREE MARK  
TODAY, AFTER A COOLISH EARLY MORNING. FRESH NE BREEZES TO FAN MILDER  
AIR AT THE COAST THIS MORNING, SSTS HOLDING THE HEAT CAPACITY OF A  
HOT SUMMER, WITH WARM OCEAN WATERS INSHORE RADIATING BETWEEN 80-83.  
 
SHALLOW MARINE SHOWERS WILL REMAIN PALEGIC, BUT WILL ENCROACH 0-20  
NM WATERS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY, A FEW PERHAPS FRINGING GEORGETOWN  
BEACHES, BUT PROBABILITIES OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL OVER LAND  
INSUFFICIENT AND TOO SPARSE TO ADVERTISE WET PAVEMENTS THIS PERIOD.  
 
52-56 INLAND DAYBREAK FRIDAY, 57-64 NEAR THE COAST IS COOL, BUT WELL  
REMOVED FROM MIN-T RECORDS. PLENTY SUNSHINE MINUTES IN THE OFFERING  
THIS PERIOD, COMPLIMENTING THE CANADIAN AIR MASS IN DECENT  
PAIRING.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS  
WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND. PLENTY OF SUBSIDENCE  
AND DRY AIR THROUGH THE COLUMN WILL INSURE A RAIN FREE PERIOD.  
WITH COOL OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S INLAND TO AROUND 60 CLOSER  
TO THE BEACHES. LARGE DIURNAL SWINGS WILL TAKE PLACE DUE TO MORE  
IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING AND BRIGHT SUNSHINE IN THE AFTERNOON  
WITH SAT HIGHS BETWEEN 80 AND 85 MOST PLACES.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE SLIPS SLOWLY OFF THE COAST AS IT EXTENDS BACK OVER  
THE SOUTHEAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL PRODUCE AN ON  
SHORE FLOW HELPING TO BRING DEWPOINT TEMPS UP A BIT. THIS  
SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO OVERNIGHT LOWS REACHING  
BACK UP TO NORMAL. MID TO UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH A DRY FRONT  
THROUGH ON TUES WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN BEHIND IT  
THROUGH MID WEEK. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME PASSING CLOUDS,  
CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE A RAIN FREE PERIOD INTO THE MIDDLE OF  
NEXT WEEK. GFS SHOWS POTENTIAL FOR LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO MOVE  
IN FROM THE WEST, BUT NOT AGREEMENT WITH ALL MODELS. OVERALL,  
EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE MOST DAYS WITH WARMING AIR MASS AND  
TEMPS REACHING ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN  
THE 60S.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
VFR. NE GUSTS BETWEEN 17-21 KNOTS BETWEEN 13Z-23Z SHOULD BE  
EXPECTED.  
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
CHOPPY AND SWELLY, ROUGH AND UNDULATING, DANGEROUS FOR SMALL CRAFT  
RIGS PERIOD AS UNPREDICTABLE AND UNWELCOMING WAVES COURSE THROUGH  
OUR 0-20 NM WATERS, AS SUCH, SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FLAGS REMAIN  
FLYING. IMPROVING SEAS WILL BECOME NOTICEABLE FRIDAY, SETTLING INTO  
THE WEEKEND, ALTHOUGH LONGER WAVE-PERIOD BACK-SWELL APT TO LINGER  
FROM HUMBERTO, BUT STEEPNESS NOT PROBLEMATIC. THE WIND-SEA ELEMENT  
TO REMAIN MINIMAL BY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND, SMOOTHING THE SEA  
SURFACE, REDUCING HULL-SMACKING.  
 
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD FRI NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND WILL MAINTAIN  
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WITH AN ONSHORE RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING  
INTO THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND. WINDS WILL COME AROUND  
FURTHER TO A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW MON INTO TUES AS A COLD FRONT  
APPROACHES FROM THE NW. OVERALL, EXPECT LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS  
WITH SEAS DROPPING OFF THROUGH SAT, REMAINING BETWEEN 2 AND 4 FT  
THROUGH MON.  
 

 
   
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
SC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH  
THIS EVENING FOR SCZ054-056.  
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS  
EVENING FOR SCZ054-056.  
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH  
THIS EVENING FOR NCZ106-108.  
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS  
EVENING FOR NCZ106-108-110.  
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-  
256.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...ILM  
NEAR TERM...MJC  
SHORT TERM...RGZ  
LONG TERM...RGZ  
AVIATION...MJC  
MARINE...MJC/RGZ  
 
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