343
FXUS62 KILM 091002
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
602 AM EDT SAT MAY 9 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
RAIN CHANCES HAVE BEEN REDUCED SUBSTANTIALLY FOR TODAY AND
SUNDAY. MONDAY'S COLD FRONT IS NOW ANTICIPATED TO REACH THE
AREA SLIGHTLY LATER IN THE DAY, BUT STILL SHOULD BE ACCOMPANIED
BY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) GOOD CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE
NEXT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...GOOD CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE NEXT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON MONDAY.
AFTER MODELS HAVE TRENDED FASTER AND FARTHER OFFSHORE WITH A
SHORTWAVE ON SUNDAY AND RAIN CHANCES HAVE FALLEN TO ONLY 10-20
PERCENT, THE NEXT GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN NOW APPEARS TO DEVELOP MONDAY
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THERE'S STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF SPREAD IN JUST
HOW MUCH 850-700 MB MOISTURE ARRIVES ON MONDAY BRACKETED BY THE WET
GFS AND THE SOMEWHAT DRIER ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS, BUT INCREASING
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND THE FRONT ITSELF SWINGING IN DURING THE
AFTERNOON SHOULD LEAD TO SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA.
0-6 KM BULK SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE TO NEAR 30 KNOTS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT MONDAY, COINCIDENT WITH THE TIME WHERE GFS/NAM FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST 1000-1500 J/KG OF UNCAPPED CAPE COULD BE PRESENT.
THIS AMOUNT OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY COULD SUPPORT ORGANIZED
MULTICELLS WITH SOME THREAT FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS. SLU'S CIPS SEVERE
ANALOG'S WEBSITE SHOWS NO SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER THREAT BASED ON
YESTERDAY'S 00Z GFS, BUT THIS STILL MAY BE OUR ONE POTENTIAL FOR
IMPACTFUL WEATHER OVER THE NEXT FIVE OR SIX DAYS.
BEHIND THE FRONT, COOLER AIR WILL BUILD IN NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS MONDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER TROUGH SHOULD TAKE ITS TIME COMING
THROUGH, ALLOWING A THICK ZONE OF HUMID SOUTHWEST WINDS ABOVE THE
SLOWLY DEEPENING FRONTAL INVERSION TO KEEP RAIN GOING THROUGH AT
LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF MONDAY NIGHT. STORM-TOTAL RAINFALL FORECASTS
OVER THE COMING THREE DAYS ARE OVER ONE INCH FOR MOST LOCATIONS EAST
OF I-95, VERY WELCOME NEWS GIVEN THE ONGOING D2/D3 DROUGHT AND DAILY
RECORD LOW RIVER LEVELS WE'RE BEEN EXPERIENCING.
AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
PREDOMINANT VFR. SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS THIS MORNING BUT NOT SEEING
ANY IMPACTS. TOWARDS THIS AFTERNOON CIGS WILL GET TO NEAR OR
JUST BELOW MVFR THRESHOLDS BUT LITTLE IMPACT TO VSBYS EXPECTED
DUE TO LIGHT RAINFALL. THE EXCEPTION WOULD BE ANY ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HIGHER RAIN RATES WHERE VSBYS COULD DROP TO
MVFR. RAIN CHANCES WILL CLEAR OUT AROUND 00Z BUT THERE MAY BE
FOG/CIG ISSUES AFTER 06Z. MVFR POSSIBLE AT THIS TIME.
EXTENDED FORECAST... RESTRICTIONS LIKELY DUE TO UNSETTLED
WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH VFR RETURNING TUESDAY AND
LIKELY PREVAILING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE
THURSDAY WITH ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM.
MARINE
THROUGH SATURDAY... SW WINDS 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS 15-20 KTS. SEAS
GENERALLY AROUND 2 FEET WITHIN 20 NM FROM SHORE AND NEAR 3 FEET OUT
TO 60 NM.
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD
REACH THE WATERS MONDAY AFTERNOON. MODEL CONSENSUS IS NOW SLIGHTLY
FASTER WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THAN WAS ANTICIPATED
THIS TIME YESTERDAY. TRENDS ARE ALSO TOWARD CONSIDERABLY LESS
COVERAGE OF RAIN FOR SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LITTLE MORE THAN
ISOLATED SHOWERS NOW EXPECTED.
AS THE FRONT ARRIVES MONDAY AFTERNOON, CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY AND WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
THE NORTH AND THEN NORTHEAST, INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS MONDAY
NIGHT AS A SURGE OF COOLER AIR BUILDS IN. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY
BE NEEDED INSIDE 20 MILES OF SHORE. WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY
DIMINISH TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS A NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD AND THEN OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY.
CLIMATE
THE RAIN GAUGE AT THE FLORENCE, SC ASOS (KFLO) CLOGGED DURING
THURSDAY'S RAINFALL EVENT, ONLY MEASURING APPROXIMATELY ONE-
QUARTER OF THE ACTUAL RAIN THAT FELL. SURROUNDING MESONET AND
NWS COOP STATIONS RECORDED ACCURATE TOTALS AND THE
GEOGRAPHICALLY NEAREST ONE, 0.98 INCHES, WAS SELECTED TO USE
FOR THE FLORENCE CLIMATE RECORD FOR THURSDAY MAY 7.
TECHNICIANS HAVE NOT BEEN ABLE TO VISIT THE SITE TO UNCLOG THE
GAUGE, SO IT'S POSSIBLE RAIN THAT FALLS THIS WEEKEND INTO
MONDAY MAY NOT BE MEASURED PROPERLY.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...TRA/LEW
KEY MESSAGES...TRA
DISCUSSION...TRA
AVIATION...LEW
MARINE...TRA/LEW
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