629
FXUS62 KILM 042343
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
643 PM EST TUE NOV 4 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS AND A SLIGHT
WARMUP THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES BUT NO RAIN THURSDAY, FOLLOWED BY A WARMUP FOR THE
WEEKEND. A STRONGER COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE SUNDAY BRINGING MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND POSSIBLY THE FIRST FREEZE OF THE SEASON
ACROSS SPOTS INLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
LIKE THIS TIME LAST NIGHT, TEMPERATURES ARE COOLING OFF A BIT
FASTER THAN ANTICIPATED. BLENDED IN SOME NBM10 FOR THE HOURLY
TEMPERATURE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THE COOLER TRENDS.
OTHERWISE, NO MAJOR CHANGES COMING DOWN THE TRACK AS WE APPROACH
7 PM EST.
UPDATED 00Z TAF DISCUSSION FOUND BELOW.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. EXPECT MOST
PLACES TO SEE A GOOD PORTION OF THE NIGHT WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TO CALM WINDS MAKING FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS. AS SUCH HAVE FOLDED IN SOME OF THE LOWER ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE VALUES. AND WHILE SOME VERY ISOLATED PATCHES OF FROST
SEEM POSSIBLE THE 50 PERCENT AREAL COVERAGE OF FROSTY CONDITIONS
APPEARS TOO LIMITED TO WARRANT HEADLINES AT THIS TIME. DESPITE
SOME RELATIVELY HIGH RH VALUES NO GUIDANCE IS SUPPORTIVE OF FOG,
LIKELY DUE TO THE EXTREME SHALLOWNESS OF THE SURFACE-BASED
MOISTURE. AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH DRIFTS EAST ON WEDNESDAY OUR
LIGHT WINDS WILL ACQUIRE A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOW 70S.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
DRY AND SEASONABLE FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. A MOISTURE
STARVED COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH THE ONLY
APPRECIABLE IMPACT BEING LOWER DEWPOINTS FOR THURSDAY. LOW TEMPS
IN THE UPPER 40S WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER
60S THURSDAY AFTERNOON UNDER CLEAR SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED TO THE NORTH QUICKLY MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPS THURSDAY NIGHT, IN THE LOW 40S INLAND AND UPPER 40S
FOR COASTAL COUNTIES.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE EARLY FRIDAY, SETTING UP WAA FOR
FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO NEXT WEEKEND. A COASTAL TROUGH BRIEFLY
DEVELOPS FRIDAY MORNING AND COULD SEE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MOVE
ONSHORE BENEATH A DECENT 700MB INVERSION, THOUGH CHANCE OF
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS QUITE LOW AND SO HAVE KEPT FORECAST
FREE OF POPS FRIDAY. TEMPS REMAIN WARM THROUGH SUNDAY, WITH
HIGHS AND LOWS ALMOST 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S DURING THE DAY AND UPPER 50S AT NIGHT.
NEAR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT SATURDAY WILL MAKE WAY FOR A DEEPENING
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. SUNDAY. A STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW
WILL MOVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST DURING THE
DAY SUNDAY, WITH ATTENDING STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS OUR
AREA LATE SUNDAY. COULD SEE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF AND
ALONG THE COLD FRONT SUNDAY WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY DUE TO
DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S AND ADEQUATE LAPSE RATES. THE MAIN STORY
HOWEVER WILL BE THE COLD, DRY AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR
THE START OF NEXT WEEK. PWATS DROP TO NEAR 0.1", BELOW THE
AVERAGE MINIMUM FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, AND 850MB TEMPS DROP TO
-2 TO -4F. HIGHS IN THE 50S MONDAY MAY BE COOLER ON TUESDAY.
CURRENT FORECAST HAS LOW TEMPS NEAR FREEZING BOTH MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY NIGHT NEXT WEEK FOR OUR INLAND COUNTIES. ENSEMBLE
CLUSTER ANALYSIS SHOWS THE BEST CHANCE OF FREEZING TEMPS FOR OUR
AREA WOULD BE WITH A SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER TROUGH,
WITH THE TROUGH STILL NEAR THE EAST COAST TUESDAY. VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ILM/FREEZE FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT AVERAGE
FIRST FALL FREEZES AND OTHER STATISTICS FOR NE SC AND SE NC.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR THROUGH THE 00Z TAF PERIOD. HIGH
PRESSURE OVERHEAD HAS ALREADY CALMED THE WINDS ACROSS ALL
TERMINALS, WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT AND INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE
OFFSHORE THROUGHOUT THE DAY WEDNESDAY, CAUSING WINDS TO PICK UP
OUT OF THE SW AT 8-12 KTS BY MIDDAY.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK....VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD. BRIEF IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY FRIDAY,
SATURDAY, AND SUNDAY.
MARINE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST
OVERNIGHT BRINGING LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT. AN EAST SWELL
PAIRED WITH THE WIND CHOP WILL STILL YIELD A 2-3 FT DOMINANT
WAVE. LOOKING AT THE POWER DISTRIBUTION WITH CLEARLY SHOWS A
MAXIMUM AT 5 SECONDS PERHAPS THE 3 FOOTERS WILL DROP OUT. THE
CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL BE OFFSHORE TOMORROW FOR S TO SW WINDS
AT INCREASE AS THE DAY WEARS ON.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A DRY COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS
THE LOCAL COASTAL WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH SW WINDS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT SHIFTING TO NORTHEASTERLIES BY EARLY THURSDAY,
STAYING BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA AS CAA BEHIND THE FRONT IS WEAK
AND BRIEF. HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVES ACROSS TO THE NORTH
THURSDAY BEFORE SOUTH- SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW RETURNS FRIDAY THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND AROUND THE OFFSHORE HIGH. COULD SEE SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AHEAD OF A SECOND, STRONGER COLD FRONT. SEAS 3-4 FT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, MAINLY WIND CHOP, LOWERS TO 2-3 FT FOR THURSDAY
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY, COMBINATION OF SE SWELL AND WIND WAVE.
SEAS INCREASE SOME ON SUNDAY AS SSW WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF THE
SECOND COLD FRONT.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...IGB
NEAR TERM...MBB
SHORT TERM...VAO
LONG TERM...VAO
AVIATION...IGB
MARINE...MBB/VAO
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