932  
FXUS62 KILM 250527  
AFDILM  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC  
127 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2020  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO WITH  
DRIER CONDITIONS. THE MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN BY MID  
WEEK AND MAY PERSIST FOR SOME TIME.  
 

 
   
UPDATE
 
 
CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE WINDING DOWN FINALLY. THE PRESENCE OF  
SOME MID LAYER DRY AIR AND THE SUBSEQUENT NUMEROUS OUTFLOWS IT  
PRODUCED LED TO MORE COVERAGE THAT PROBABLY ANTICIPATED. THE  
NUMEROUS OUTFLOWS HAVE ALSO DISTORTED THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONTS  
DEFINITION NOT THAT IT WAS THAT PROMINENT ANYWAY. THE REMAINDER  
OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SHOULD BE CONVECTION FREE AFTER THE NEXT  
HOUR OR TWO. STRATUS IS ALMOST A GIVEN CITING ALL OF THE  
RAINFALL AND SOME WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. NO OTHER CHANGES.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT DOMINATES THE AREA FORECAST TODAY WITH AFTERNOON  
HIGHS REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 IN SOME LOCATIONS,  
WHICH IS BETWEEN 5 AND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE MAY.  
INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW FOR SOME CHANCES FOR  
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS AT TIMES. WITH LITTLE  
WIND TO DRIVE ANY DEVELOPING STORMS, ISOLATED STORMS WILL NOT MOVE  
VERY FAST AND WILL QUICKLY DISINTEGRATE THIS AFTERNOON. A BACK  
DOOR COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE  
NORTH WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION SOMETIME LATER THIS  
AFTERNOON OR EVENING AND BRING NORTHEAST WINDS AND MARINE  
INFLUENCED AIR FOR SOME COOLER TEMPERATURES HEADING INTO  
MEMORIAL DAY WITH HIGHS CLOSER TO AVERAGE IN THE UPPER 70S TO  
LOWER 80S. ISOLATED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS,  
MAINLY INLAND, WILL CONTINUE INTO MEMORIAL DAY.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
 
 
A MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL WOBBLE FROM JUST OVERHEAD TO OFFSHORE  
THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECT A SIMILAR TRANSITION FOR SURFACE HIGH  
PRESSURE ALTHOUGH THE TRANSITION WILL BE MORE OF AN AIRMASS  
MODIFICATION. DURING THIS TIME A SUBTROPICAL PLUME NOW SEEN ON  
SATELLITE IMAGERY WILL FEED DIRECTLY INTO THE AREA AND THEREFORE  
POPS WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH THE PERIOD. ONE NOTE OF  
INTEREST IS AN AREA OF MORE CONCENTRATED CONVECTION EMBEDDED  
WITHIN THE PLUME THAT GUIDANCE SEEMS TO LIKE MORE AND MORE AND  
IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AT TIMES BROAD CLOSED LOW BUT MORESO AN  
OPEN WAVE. TEMPERATURES HAVE TRENDED A BIT LOWER WITH HIGHS AND  
WARMER WITH LOWS MOST LIKELY DUE TO THE INCREASED MOISTURE.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
 
 
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE MID LEVEL  
EVOLUTION OF A RETREATING RIDGE TO THE EAST AND EVENTUAL  
TROUGHING LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH THE LATTER BRING ALONG AN  
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT. POPS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST BASICALLY THE  
ENTIRE PERIOD WITH IF ANYTHING A DECREASE LATE VIA THE FRONT  
SOMEWHAT OPTIMISTICALLY PUSHING TO THE SOUTH. TEMPERATURE TRENDS  
INHERITED FROM THE SHORT TERM REMAIN IN PLACE WITH MUGGY  
MORNING LOWS ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY AND HIGHS NEAR NORMAL.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
WITH LAST EVENING'S COVERAGE OF CONVECTION AND SOME MIXING IN  
THE BOUNDARY LAYER, EXPECT STRATUS TO CONTINUE THIS MORNING AT  
ALL TERMINALS. WILMINGTON MAY BE SPARED BY STAYING IN MVFR WHILE  
THE INLAND SITES ARE ALL BUT CERTAIN TO SPEND SOME IN THE IFR  
CAMP. SOME GRADUAL MIXING INTO VFR SHOULD OCCUR THROUGH THE DAY  
TODAY.  
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR TONIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH A SMALL CHANCE  
OF MVFR CIGS. UNSETTLED WEATHER WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH  
A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN EACH DAY.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS BETWEEN 2 AND 3 FEET FOR THE REST OF TODAY  
MAINLY FROM THE NORTHEAST AT 4 SECONDS WITH SOUTHEAST SWELL BETWEEN  
8 AND 10 SECONDS OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. AS A RESULT OF THE LONGER  
PERIOD SWELL, MODERATE RISK FOR RIPS OVER THE NEXT 2 DAYS MAINLY FOR  
THE EAST FACING BEACHES OF NORTH CAROLINA.  
 
BASICALLY AN EASTERLY TO OCCASIONAL NORTHEAST DIRECTION EARLY  
ON WITH A TRANSITION TO A SOUTH/SOUTHEAST DIRECTION BY THE END  
OF THE WEEK. A FURTHER TRANSITION TO SOUTHWEST IS NOTED BY THE  
WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE  
SEEMINGLY LAZY NATURE OF THE PRESSURE PATTERN (WELCOME TO  
SUMMER) WARRANTS WIND SPEEDS ON THE LOWER END OF A 10-15 FOOT  
RANGE. SIGNIFICANT SEAS SHOULD BE 2-4 FEET INCREASING A BIT IN  
TIME AS WHAT APPEARS TO BE A DECENT SWELL COMPONENT FROM THE  
SOUTHEAST AROUND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.  
 

 
   
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
SC...NONE.  
NC...NONE.  
MARINE...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...SHK  
UPDATE...SHK  
NEAR TERM...MCK  
SHORT TERM...SHK  
LONG TERM...SHK  
AVIATION...MAS/43  
MARINE...MCK/SHK  
 
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