363
FXUS62 KILM 141851
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
251 PM EDT TUE JUL 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO LARGE SCALE FORECAST CHANGES SINCE THE LAST UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1)HOT AND LARGELY RAIN-FREE RETURNS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...HOT AND LARGELY RAIN-FREE RETURNS.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
WV IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG MID LEVEL
RIDGING OVER THE NATION'S MIDSECTION, ELONGATED SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
THE MIDATLANTIC AND STILL PLENTY OF MOISTURE INTO SOUTHERN NC AND
THE GULF STATES. THIS EVENING'S SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD BE THE LAST
WE SEE FOR A WHILE, AT LEAST OF ANY SIGNIFICANCE AS THE RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO EXPAND SOUTHEASTWARD, THE HIGHEST HEIGHTS ALOFT REMAINING
NORTH OF THE AREA. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
TURN TO THE S AND SW OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO BUILDING HUMIDITY IN
ADDITION TO THE HEAT. SEVERAL DAYS OF HEAT ADVISORIES APPEAR LIKELY
STARTING FRIDAY IF NOT THURSDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW PAIRED WITH SEASONABLE HUMIDITY WILL TEND TO
FAVOR COASTAL AREAS FOR SHOWERS AND STORM IN THE VERY NEAR TERM.
DESPITE THE LACK OF MUCH OF A N/S INSTABILITY GRADIENT SC CELLS HAVE
FAR OUTPERFORMED IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. ACTIVITY WILL WANE
OVERNIGHT AS WINDS GROW LIGHT. GUIDANCE IS DEPICTING BOTH FOG AND
LOW STRATUS FORMING INLAND OVERNIGHT, SEEMINGLY THUS MOST LIKELY AT
FLO AND LBT, HITTING THE FORMER A BIT HARDER THAN THE LATTER. VFR
FOR WEDNESDAY WITH LIGHT AND VEERING WINDS.
EXTENDED FORECAST... HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE
REGION BY MIDWEEK WITH PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS WED THROUGH
SAT.
MARINE
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
THROUGH MOST OF WEDNESDAY (THOUGH VEERING WILL TRY TO COME AND
DOMINATE). IT MAY TAKE UNTIL THURSDAY NOW UNTIL A MORE TYPICAL S TO
SW FLOW BECOMES RE-ESTABLISHED. THIS SHOULD INTERRUPT THE CURRENTLY
ESTABLISHED EASTERLY SWELL TO SHORTEN THE DOMINANT PERIOD AS THE
ADMITTEDLY DIMINUTIVE WIND WAVES BECOME THE DOMINANT WAVE. HEADING
INTO THE END OF THE PERIOD THE PERSISTENCE OF THE FETCH PAIRED WITH A
THERMALLY-INDUCED PIEDMONT TROUGH STRENGTHENS THE WIND FIELDS BY
ABOUT A CATEGORY OR TWO, WHICH IS STILL QUITE THE NORM FOR THE DATE.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ106-
108.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 6 PM TO 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
NCZ106-108-110.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EDT
WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ107.
SC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 6 PM TO 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
SCZ054-056.
MARINE...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...MBB
KEY MESSAGES...MBB
DISCUSSION...MBB
AVIATION...MBB
MARINE...MBB
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