249  
FXUS62 KILM 040005  
AFDILM  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC  
705 PM EST FRI DEC 3 2021  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  
ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. DRY  
AND COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY BEFORE SHOWER CHANCES  
INCREASE WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER FRONT.  
 

 
   
UPDATE
 
 
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO THE FORECAST TONIGHT.  
CIRRUS OVER GEORGIA AND ALABAMA WILL SLIDE OVER THE AREA LATE  
TONIGHT, BUT WITH LITTLE IMPACT ON RADIATIONAL COOLING. THE  
BIGGER CONCERN IS AN INFLUX OF MOISTURE AT AND BELOW 1000 FEET  
AGL LATE TONIGHT ALONG THE COAST THAT COULD LEAD TO PATCHY FOG  
AND POSSIBLY SOME LOW STRATUS CLOUDS. NAM DEWPOINTS ARE  
SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER THAN THE GFS, AND IT'S NOT CERTAIN JUST HOW  
LIKELY FOG MAY BE AT THIS POINT. THE 00Z SOUNDING FROM CHS WILL  
HELP SHED SOME LIGHT ON THIS HOPEFULLY.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
 
 
WEAK BOUNDARY DROPPING INTO AREA MAKING WINDS MORE VARIABLE,  
BUT LIGHT INTO THIS EVENING. THIS BOUNDARY WILL MEANDER NEAR THE  
AREA, BUT THE MAIN FEATURE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY WILL BE HIGH  
PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WITH MAINLY LIGHT SE TO S FLOW  
BECOMING MORE SW ON SAT AS HIGH MOVE FARTHER OFF THE COAST AND  
WEAK FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. OVERALL, UNSEASONABLY WARM  
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE FOR SATURDAY. THE WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE  
COMPONENT TO THE FLOW WILL HELP PUSH TEMPS WELL INTO THE 70S TO  
NEAR 80. MAY APPROACH RECORDS WHICH WOULD BE 80 FOR ILM, 77 FOR  
CRE, 78 FOR LBT AND 80 FOR FLO. THERE COULD BE SOME HIGH CLOUDS  
STREAMING OVER THE AREA AS A MINOR SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM  
THE WEST, BUT BASICALLY WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY COLUMN AND  
SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.  
 
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN FROM THE NORTH SAT NIGHT WILL PUSH  
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT FARTHER SOUTH INTO NC. A BIT OF COLD AIR  
WILL BLEED SOUTH INTO OUR AREA, BUT OVERALL, BEST TEMP GRADIENT  
WILL REMAIN NORTH AND WEST OF LOCAL FORECAST AREA. OVERNIGHT  
LOWS WILL REMAIN SIMILAR TO TONIGHT WITH LOWS GETTING DOWN CLOSE  
TO 50.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH  
PORTIONS OF NC ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES  
COOLER, BUT THE BEST COLD ADVECTION SHOULD REMAIN WELL NORTH OF  
THE AREA, CREATING AN IMPRESSIVE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT FROM SE TO  
NW ACROSS NC. STILL IN THE UPPER 60S OR LOWER 70S ACROSS OUR  
AREA WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER THROUGHOUT THE DAY. A COASTAL  
TROUGH WILL CREATE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OFFSHORE AS A WEAK  
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS AND MID-LEVEL ENERGY BOLSTERS THE SURFACE  
TROUGH. SHOWERS WILL STAY OFFSHORE WHERE THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE  
IS SUFFICIENT, BUT WE CAN'T RULE OUT A SPRINKLE ALONG THE  
IMMEDIATE COASTLINE SUNDAY EVENING. SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES  
OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL AS DEW POINTS RECOVER  
NICELY INTO THE MID 50S. APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON MONDAY WILL  
TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND MOSTLY DISSIPATE AS  
IT LOSES ITS UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT IN THE FORM OF A LIFTING  
TROUGH. ONCE THE FRONT ARRIVES IN OUR AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT, ANY  
ASSOCIATED RAIN CHANCES WILL BE NEARLY ZERO. HIGH PRESSURE IS  
ABLE TO BUILD SOUTHWARD ON MONDAY EVENING WITH COOLER AIR  
ARRIVING BY TUESDAY MORNING. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO  
NEAR 50 DURING THE TRANSITION.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
COOLER ON TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA.  
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S WITH THE BEST COLD ADVECTION OVER THE  
DELMARVA REGION AND SOUTHERN VA. HIGH PRESSURE LIFTS QUICKLY BY  
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH SW MID-LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF A WEAK  
SHORTWAVE. LOW POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SHOWERS ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO  
WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH THE MAIN FORCING TO OUR WEST. A MORE  
VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY WITH A  
GOOD CHANCE AT SEEING WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY. STILL SOME  
UNCERTAINTY ON THE EXACT POSITION OF THIS SHORTWAVE WHICH COULD  
HAVE IMPACT ON QPF POTENTIAL. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD  
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER  
CHANCE OF SHOWERS.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
THE ONE POTENTIAL FOR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS MAY DEVELOP LATE  
TONIGHT ALONG THE COAST AFTER 08Z, AFFECTING THE MYR, CRE, AND  
ILM AIRPORTS. INCREASING ATLANTIC MOISTURE COULD LEAD TO FOG AND  
PERHAPS A LITTLE LOW STRATUS. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME,  
BUT ANY IMPACTS SHOULD CLEAR BETWEEN 13-14Z. VFR CONDITIONS ARE  
EXPECTED SATURDAY WITH ONLY SOME CIRRUS ALOFT.  
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR. THERE IS A LOW POTENTIAL FOR MVFR  
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY IN LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AS A  
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT... BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS WILL  
CONTINUE THROUGH SAT NIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS LESS THAN 3  
FT. WEAK BOUNDARY DROPPING SOUTH INTO WATERS PRODUCED A SHIFT  
TO NW BUT OVERALL, WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS THEY  
SHIFT BACK AROUND TO THE SE-S AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS FARTHER  
OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT INTO SAT AND BOUNDARY MEANDERS  
CLOSE BY. THE WINDS WILL VEER SLIGHTLY MORE SW ON SAT AS ONE  
HIGH SHIFTS FARTHER OFF THE COAST AND ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH  
PRESSURE MIGRATES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY EAST TOWARD THE MID  
ATLANTIC COAST NUDGING BOUNDARY SOUTH. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD DROP  
SOUTH POSSIBLY REACHING THE LOCAL WATERS BY SUN MORNING.  
OVERALL, WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT WITH A MORE S-SW FLOW THROUGH  
SAT AND POSSIBLE SHIFT TO N BY SUN MORNING. A SLIGHTLY LONGER  
PERIOD SE SWELL WILL MIX IN.  
 
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES TO OUR NORTH  
ON SUNDAY WITH NE FLOW INCREASING TO 15-20 KNOTS. HIGH PRESSURE  
EXISTS FOR ONLY A BRIEF PERIOD AS A MUCH STRONGER COLD FRONT  
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASING SUNDAY  
NIGHT INTO MONDAY, APPROACHING 20 KNOTS LATE MONDAY WITH HIGHER  
GUSTS OUT OF THE SW. COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT  
WITH OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING, BUT QUICKLY ABATING AFTER HIGH  
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS ON TUESDAY  
NIGHT AHEAD OF A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WHICH COULD BRING SHOWER  
CHANCES AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY INTO LATE NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
 
THE STATE OF NORTH CAROLINA HAS ISSUED A STATE-WIDE BURN  
BAN IN EFFECT UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. THIS MEANS OUTDOOR OPEN  
BURNING IS STRICTLY PROHIBITED. RH ON FRIDAY WILL DROP TO  
30-35% INLAND, AND BETWEEN 35-45% ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST  
AS DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL AND FUEL MOISTURES REMAIN  
EXCESSIVELY LOW.  
 

 
   
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
SC...NONE.  
NC...NONE.  
MARINE...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...ILM  
UPDATE...TRA  
NEAR TERM...RGZ  
SHORT TERM...21  
LONG TERM...21  
AVIATION...TRA  
MARINE...RGZ/21  
FIRE WEATHER...  
 
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