727
FXUS62 KILM 020634
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
234 AM EDT SAT MAY 2 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
EXPECTED RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE DECREASED, MAINLY FOR AREAS NEAR AND
WEST OF I-95. THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THE LOWER CAPE
FEAR RIVER HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. A NEW ADVISORY WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR HIGH TIDE TONIGHT ALONG THE LOWER CAPE FEAR
RIVER.
KEY MESSAGES
1) BENEFICIAL RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH THROUGH TODAY.
2) THE LOWER CAPE FEAR RIVER WILL EXPERIENCE MINOR COASTAL WITH
HIGH TIDE AGAIN TONIGHT.
3) ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY MID-WEEK AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD
FRONT AND RAINFALL CHANCES THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: BENEFICIAL RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY.
A STALLED FRONT WELL OFFSHORE WILL BE DRAWN TOWARDS THE COAST
TODAY AS MULTIPLE AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE TRACK ALONG IT. THESE
WILL BRING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAIN THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY,
WITH RAIN TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE MID-LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LATEST GUIDANCE TRENDS HAVE SHIFTED THE
PRECIP AXIS MORE EASTWARD, LEADING TO LESSER PRECIP AMOUNTS WELL
INLAND AND THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS LIKELY ACROSS SOUTHERN AND
COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE AREA. A CONSOLIDATED AND DEEPENING
SURFACE LOW WILL EMERGE AND ACCELERATE AWAY FROM THE
NORTHEASTERN NC COAST ON SATURDAY NIGHT, BRINGING AN END TO THE
PRECIP AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND IT.
A RATHER TIGHT GRADIENT IN PRECIP AMOUNTS SHOULD TAKE SHAPE
GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF I-95 GIVEN THE FRONT'S
POSITION, WITH THE GREATEST PRECIP EXPECTED NEAR THE COAST.
OVERALL, EXPECT BETWEEN 0.50-0.75" NEAR AND WEST OF I-95 WITH
PEAK AMOUNTS NEAR AN INCH POSSIBLE WHILE COASTAL AREAS SHOULD
SEE BETWEEN 0.75-1.25" WITH PEAK AMOUNTS AROUND 1.50" POSSIBLE,
MAINLY ACROSS GEORGETOWN INTO COASTAL HORRY COUNTY. NBM FORECAST
PRECIP AMOUNTS OVERALL ARE HIGHER, SUGGESTING 1-2" ACROSS MOST
OF THE AREA WITH LOCALIZED PEAK AMOUNTS UP TO 2.5", BUT THIS
APPEARS TO BE OVERDONE AS THE COMPONENT MODELS FROM THE HREF AND
THE GLOBAL ENSEMBLES DEPICT GENERALLY 1- 1.5" LESS AT VARIOUS
PERCENTILES OF EACH ENSEMBLE SYSTEM.
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM, A SURGE OF COOL AND DRY AIR WILL MAKE FOR
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES BETWEEN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE THEREAFTER BEFORE
ANOTHER FRONT ARRIVES WITH THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN AROUND
WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2: THE LOWER CAPE FEAR RIVER WILL EXPERIENCE MINOR
COASTAL WITH HIGH TIDE AGAIN TONIGHT.
TIDE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH ADVISORY LEVELS ALONG THE
LOWER CAPE FEAR RIVER, INCLUDING DOWNTOWN WILMINGTON GENERALLY
FROM 10 PM TO 1 AM TONIGHT. TWL PREDICTIONS SUGGEST WATER LEVELS
WILL REMAIN BELOW THRESHOLDS WITH HIGH TIDE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 3: ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY MID-WEEK AHEAD OF
ANOTHER COLD FRONT AND RAINFALL CHANCES THURSDAY.
STRONG WARM-AIR ADVECTION AND MAY SUNSHINE WILL LEAD TO ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY WEDNESDAY. IT IS POSSIBLE THE NBM HIGHS
ARE A CATEGORY TOO LOW, BUT MUCH OF THAT WILL DEPEND ON THE
AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE ULTIMATELY STYMIED BY MOISTURE
ADVECTION/CLOUDS. OTHERWISE, GFS ENSEMBLES AND NBM SUGGEST GOOD
CHANCES OF RAINFALL FOCUSED ON THURSDAY AT THE MOMENT AS A
STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA SUPPORTED BY H5 TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AT THIS TIME CONFIDENCE IS LACKING
REGARDING THE TIMING OF THE FRONT AND HOW FAST THIS SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH, AND SUBSEQUENTLY QPF AMOUNTS. GIVEN THE DROUGHT, ANY
RAINFALL WOULD HELP SOME. OTHERWISE, A DEEPER DRIER/WESTERLY
COLUMN WOULD SUGGEST CLEARING BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AGAIN.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING AS A
LARGE RAIN SHIELD ADVANCES INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
CIGS SHOULD FALL TO IFR BY DAYBREAK AT ALL TERMINALS, WITH MVFR
CONTINUING AT INLAND TERMINALS UNTIL THEN. RAIN WILL RESULT IN
MVFR TO IFR VIS RESTRICTIONS THROUGH A MAJORITY OF TODAY BEFORE
CLEARING OUT DURING MID-LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. VFR
SHOULD RETURN BEFORE THE END OF THE PERIOD AS DRIER AIR FILTERS
IN AND WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT NORTHERLY.
EXTENDED FORECAST...PREDOMINANTLY VFR THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MVFR
MIST MAY DEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT AS SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS REMAIN
LIGHT OR CALM.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT...A STALLED FRONT OFFSHORE WILL SEE MULTIPLE
LOW PRESSURE AREAS MOVE ALONG IT TODAY, BRINGING AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER TO THE WATERS. THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO STAY FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE TO KEEP WINDS PRIMARILY
NORTHERLY ACROSS THE WATERS TODAY, WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO
15-20 KTS THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTS AS HIGH AS 25 KTS ARE
ANTICIPATED IN THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTHEAST AND EAST OF CAPE
FEAR, RESULTING IN A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THOSE ZONES, WHILE
25-30 KTS SHOULD BE OBSERVED IN THE 20-60NMI ZONES. SEAS SHOULD
STAY MAINLY 2-4 FT IN THE COASTAL WATERS AND 4-7 FT IN THE
20-60NMI WATERS, DRIVEN BY A COMBINATION OF NORTHERLY WIND WAVES
AND NORTHEASTERLY SWELLS WITH A PERIOD AROUND 9- 10 SEC.
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WEAKER OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE WATERS AS HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS FROM WV TO THE GULF
COAST SUNDAY MORNING. THE FLOW WILL VEER AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
BECOMES ESTABLISHED OFF THE CAROLINAS BY SUNDAY EVENING SETTING
THE STAGE FOR A WEAK SLY PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT WILL PERSIST
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. POTENTIALLY BY LATE WEDNESDAY THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL FINALLY TIGHTEN AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT
PUSHES TOWARD THE AREA. GEFS 20 KNOT WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES
INCREASE OFF SUGGESTING SOME CONFIDENCE IN SC.Y FOR THE WATERS
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT IS THE MAIN
CHALLENGE WITH THIS PART OF THE FORECAST. REGARDING SEAS, THE
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN SOME RANGE IN SEAS EARLY IN THE
PERIOD, THEN SEAS MOSTLY AROUND 3 FT OR LESS UNTIL THE
AFOREMENTIONED PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS LATE IN THE PERIOD.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 6 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH
THIS EVENING FOR NCZ108.
SC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 6 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH
THIS EVENING FOR SCZ056.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM EDT
THIS EVENING FOR AMZ250-252.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...ILM
KEY MESSAGES...ABW/SRP
DISCUSSION...ABW/SRP
AVIATION...ABW
MARINE...ABW/SRP
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