309
FXUS62 KILM 090030
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
830 PM EDT SUN MAR 8 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE BI-STATE AREA HAS
ENDED.
00Z TAF DISCUSSION UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
1) INTERMITTENT SEA FOG WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE COASTAL
WATERS AND IMMEDIATE COASTLINE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
2) NEAR RECORD HEAT FORECASTED FOR WEDNESDAY AWAY FROM THE
COAST.
3) STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS EARLY THURSDAY WITH BRIEF
COOLDOWN BEHIND IT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...INTERMITTENT SEA FOG WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT
THE COASTAL WATERS AND IMMEDIATE COASTLINE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
PERSISTENT ADVECTION OF WARM, MOIST AIR OVER THE WATERS WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE INTERMITTENT SEA FOG, DENSE AT TIMES, THROUGH
MID-WEEK. BEST CHANCE WILL BE OVERNIGHT INTO MIDDAY. SEA FOG WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE AS WELL, ESPECIALLY
DURING MORNING HOURS. STRONG COLD FRONT EARLY THURSDAY WILL FINALLY
BRING AN END TO THIS EXTENDED STRETCH OF ON AND OFF SEA FOG.
KEY MESSAGE 2...NEAR RECORD HEAT FORECASTED FOR WEDNESDAY AWAY
FROM THE COAST.
WAA ACROSS THE AREA PERSISTS THROUGH MID-WEEK AROUND OFFSHORE RIDGE.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. LOW
TEMPERATURES EACH NIGHT WILL ONLY BE A FEW DEGREES SHY OF RECORD
HIGH LOWS. WEDNESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD, WITH 850MB TEMPS CLIMBING TO 15C, WELL ABOVE THE
90TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS HIGH
TEMPS AROUND 84-86F WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, WHICH IS NEAR RECORD TEMPS
FOR FLORENCE AND LUMBERTON. ACTIVE SEA BREEZE WILL KEEP COASTAL
AREAS 5-10F COOLER.
KEY MESSAGE 3...STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS EARLY THURSDAY
WITH BRIEF COOLDOWN BEHIND IT.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA EARLY THURSDAY. DECENT
RAIN CHANCES WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, BUT QPF IS RATHER MEAGER (AND
CERTAINLY NOT MUCH TO HELP OUR ONGOING DROUGHT). THE BIGGER IMPACTS
FROM THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE GUSTY WINDS AND TEMPERATURE CHANGE.
STRONG WINDS JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT COULD PRODUCE 30+ MPH GUSTS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH GUSTY WINDS CONTINUING BEHIND THE FRONT DURING
THE DAY THURSDAY. THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR THURSDAY WILL TAKE PLACE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH TEMPERATURES,
AND DEWPOINTS, QUICKLY DECREASING DURING THE DAY AS DRY AND COLD AIR
MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT. DAYTIME TEMPS THURSDAY MIGHT NOT GET OUT
OF THE 60S. TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT MIGHT DROP INTO THE UPPER
30S, WITH LINGERING BL WINDS PREVENTING EVEN FURTHER COOLING. HIGHS
FRIDAY ARE CURRENTLY FORECASTED NEAR NORMAL BEFORE TEMPS WARM AGAIN
INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
MAINLY VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS THRU 02Z,
AFTERWARDS AND THRU 04Z LOOKING AT PATCHY VFR/MVFR LIGHT RAIN
AND FOG. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT DURING THE PRE-DAWN MON HRS,
CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO IFR ACROSS ALL TERMINALS, POSSIBLY
REACHING LIFR CONDITIONS. VISIBILITY MAY FOLLOW SUIT WITH THE
THREAT FOR DENSE FOG ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 08Z AND 14Z. LOOKING AT
IMPROVEMENTS IN BOTH CEILING/VSBY AT ALL TERMINALS TO VFR BY
MIDDAY MON THE LATEST. THE GUSTINESS TO THE WINDS HAS CEASED.
AND THE SFC PG HAS RELAXED CONSIDERABLY ALONG WITH A DIMINISHED
SOUTHWESTERLY LLJ. GENERALLY LOOKING AT SW-NW WINDS AT 5 KT OR
LESS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT, COULD EVEN BECOME
CALM AT TIMES DURING THE PRE-DAWN MON HRS. DURING MON, GENERALLY
LOOKING AT S-SW WINDS 5 TO 9 KT...WITH A WEAK SEA BREEZE
EXPECTED, WINDS AT COASTAL TERMINALS BACKING TO THE SE-S 10 KT
OR LESS.
EXTENDED FORECAST...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD, BUT PERIODS OF RADIATIONAL FOG OVER LAND COULD
BRING LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS. SEA FOG
COULD ADVECT ONSHORE AND AFFECT THE GRAND STRAND TERMINALS DAY
OR NIGHT IF CONDITIONS ALLOW.
MARINE
THROUGH MONDAY...SW WINDS 10 TO 15 KT THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHER
GUSTS WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING TO 10 KT OR LESS
FOR MONDAY. SEAS OF 3 TO 4 FT THIS AFTERNOON WILL SUBSIDE SLIGHTLY
TO 2 TO 4 FT BY MONDAY. PERSISTENT SEA FOG/STRATUS HAS MOVED BACK
INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH BUT, ON SATELLITE, LOOKS TO BE BREAKING
UP QUICKLY DUE TO DIVERGING WINDS NEARER THE COAST RESULTING FROM
THE SEA BREEZE. THE BIG QUESTION FOR THE OVERNIGHT IS WHETHER SEA
FOG WILL REDEVELOP BEFORE CONVECTION AND ANY ENHANCED WINDS WITH
THAT MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. AFTER CONVECTION ENDS, SEA FOG MAY
RETURN BUT MAY NOT HAVE AS MUCH EFFECT NEARER THE BEACHES DUE TO A
MORE WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE WINDS. NO FLAGS ATTM.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS 10-15 KTS WITH SEAS 2-
3 FT PERSISTS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AROUND OFFSHORE HIGH
PRESSURE. INTERMITTENT SEA FOG WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE LOCAL
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST EARLY THURSDAY, WITH ENHANCED WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
INCREASING SSW WINDS TO 20-25 KTS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY, TURNING NORTHERLY BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
WINDS SLOWLY WEAKEN THURSDAY NIGHT, BECOMING 10-15 KTS DAYTIME
FRIDAY AND VEERING ONCE AGAIN TO SOUTHERLIES. SEAS BUILD TO 4-6 FT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO S SWELL, WITH
COMBINATION OF GUSTY WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS LIKELY NECESSITATING A
SCA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. SEAS LOWER TO 2-4 FT FOR
FRIDAY, PRIMARILY AS A NNE WIND WAVE.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...DCH
KEY MESSAGES...VAO/31
DISCUSSION...VAO/31
AVIATION...DCH
MARINE...VAO/31
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