616
FXUS62 KILM 241750
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
150 PM EDT TUE MAR 24 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. AVIATION SECTION UPDATED TO INCLUDE
ROUTINE 18Z DISCUSSION.
KEY MESSAGES
1) PATCHY FROST POSSIBLE TONIGHT IN OUR NORMALLY CHILLY SPOTS.
2) ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF A STRONG
COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY. SHOWERS AND A STRAY THUNDERSTORM ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE, BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS
LOW.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: PATCHY FROST POSSIBLE TONIGHT IN OUR NORMALLY
CHILLY SPOTS.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE EAST AND OFF THE
MIDATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT. THIS AIRMASS HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES
WELL BELOW NORMAL TODAY AND IT WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO TONIGHT.
WITH OUR GROWING SEASON ALREADY DECLARED UNDERWAY THIS OPENS UP
THE CONCERN FOR FROST/FREEZE. LUCKILY NO GUIDANCE IS SUPPORTIVE
OF THE LATTER, EVEN THE NBM 10TH PERCENTILE GUIDANCE. OUR
NORMALLY SOIL-INDUCED COLD SPOTS IN PENDER AND BLADEN COUNTIES
LOOK TO DROP DOWN TO ABOUT 36 AND SHOULD HAVE PATCHES OF PREDAWN
FROST.
KEY MESSAGE 2: ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF
A STRONG COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY. SHOWERS AND A STRAY THUNDERSTORM
ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE, BUT CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK, BRINGING SIGNIFICANT WARMING TO THE REGION WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES UP TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON FRIDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR OUR INLAND LOCATIONS COULD APPROACH RECORDS.
COASTAL AREAS WILL BE MODERATED BY A COOLING SEA BREEZE.
RECORD HIGHS FOR 3/27
FLORENCE, SC: 89 IN 2021
LUMBERTON, NC: 87 IN 1950 & 1949
A STRAY THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE AS THE COLD FRONT DRIFTS
SOUTHWARD LATE FRIDAY, BUT CHANCES REMAIN VERY LOW. IN GENERAL,
ENSEMBLE RAIN CHANCES HELD STEADY FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
DESPITE THE SLIGHT INCREASE IN OUR DETERMINISTIC FORECAST,
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG THE
FRONT LATE FRIDAY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP (IN OUR CWA) WILL
LIKELY EXIST OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NC.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO BEING CENTERED
OFF THE MIDATLANTIC COAST. NE WINDS WILL ABATE FOR THE REMAINDER
OF TODAY WITH ONLY A FEW KNOTS OF INCREASE FOLLOWING SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY. VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS EXPECTED, THOUGH MID LEVEL
CLOUDS COULD AFFECT CRE AND MYR IN THE VERY NEAR TERM.
EXTENDED FORECAST... THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF GROUND FOG
THURSDAY MORNING, OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL
THROUGH FRIDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT SHOULD REACH THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT ACCOMPANIED BY A SUBSTANTIAL WIND SHIFT AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS.
MARINE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY... THE GRADIENT REMAINS RATHER TIGHT BETWEEN
HIGH PRESSURE IN THE OHIO VALLEY AND THE VERY STRONG COLD FRONT
THAT BLEW THROUGH YESTERDAY, THE BOUNDARY NOW WELL OFFSHORE. THE
POST-FRONTAL HIGH WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH THE NEAR TERM
KEEPING WINDS AND SEAS TO ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH A GOOD PORTION
OF TONIGHT. THE CURRENT 2AM EXPIRATION OF THE SCA IS LIKELY
PESSIMISTIC BUT WILL LET EVENING SHIFT REASSESS. WITH THE CENTER
OF THE HIGH MOVING OFF THE MIDATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY WINDS
AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO ABATE.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY... LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED
ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE CAROLINAS
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. AN AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE WILL YIELD TO
SOUTHERLY WINDS LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY EVENING AS
THAT SAME AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE.
ESTABLISHED SSW FLOW WILL INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AS EARLY
AS FRIDAY NIGHT PRIOR TO THE NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT. STRONGER
WINDS AIDED BY COLD AIR ADVECTION EARLY SATURDAY SHOULD EASILY
PUSH OUR AREA BEYOND THE SCA THRESHOLD WITH BOTH WINDS AND
6-FOOT SEAS. A FEW GUSTS COULD REACH GALE FORCE, BUT CONFIDENCE
IS LOW REGARDING THEIR FREQUENCY AND DURATION.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ250-252-
254-256.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...ILM
KEY MESSAGES...MBB/21
DISCUSSION...MBB/21
AVIATION...MBB
MARINE...MBB/21
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