115
FXUS62 KILM 051053
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
553 AM EST FRI DEC 5 2025
SYNOPSIS
SOAKING RAINFALL AND COOL TEMPERATURES ARRIVE TODAY AS A STORM
SYSTEM MOVES ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST. HIGH RAIN CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE BECOMING SPOTTIER EARLY NEXT
WEEK. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY TUESDAY WITH CONTINUED
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. RAIN CHANCES MAY RETURN FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF ANOTHER FRONT.
UPDATE
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
WEAK COLD FRONT SETTLING INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING WILL LINGER
OFFSHORE INTO SAT. ALTHOUGH THIS FRONT LACKS MOISTURE, A SOUTHERN
STREAM SYSTEM MOVING EAST ALONG THE GULF COAST WILL SPREAD PLENTY OF
MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA. IN ADDITION TO PLENTIFUL MOISTURE THE LOW
WILL FIRST ENHANCE WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH THE FRONT, AROUND
DAYBREAK, STRENGTHEN THE LIFT THROUGH THE MORNING AND THEN, AS THE
LOW PASSES OFF THE COAST, ADD DYNAMICAL FORCING. THE RESULT WILL BE
LIGHT RAIN SPREADING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. RAIN WILL INCREASE IN INTENSITY AFTER SUNRISE
WITH PERIODS OF MODERATE AND PERHAPS EVEN BRIEF HEAVY RAIN THROUGH
MID-AFTERNOON. PRECIPITABLE WATER EXCEEDS 200% OF NORMAL JUST AFTER
SUNRISE AND STAYS AOA 200% OF NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THERE WILL
BE A TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND WITH THE LOW/FRONT
OFFSHORE THE HIGHEST TOTALS SHOULD BE FOUND OFF THE COAST. GENERALLY
EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 0.50" INLAND WITH 0.75" ALONG THE COAST.
HOWEVER, GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AND THE FAIRLY DEEP WARM LAYER
WOULD NOT BE SHOCKED TO SEE AMOUNTS COME IN A LITTLE HIGHER. CLOUD
COVER AND RAIN WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL TODAY WITH
MOST AREAS STRUGGLING TO HIT 50.
FRONT LINGERS OFFSHORE TONIGHT AS THE LOW DEPARTS. WEAK WAVE
DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN FL THIS EVENING MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG THE
FRONT TONIGHT, PASSING WELL OFFSHORE. ALTHOUGH DRIER AIR MOVES IN
ABOVE 850 MB, THE LOWEST LEVELS REMAIN SATURATED. EVEN WITH THE DRY
AIR ALOFT, PRECIPITABLE WATER REMAINS ABOVE NORMAL WITH A RIBBON OF
200% ABOVE NORMAL HANGING ON ALONG THE COAST. THE RESULT WILL BE
BOUTS OF LIGHT RAIN OVERNIGHT, WITH BEST CHANCES ALONG THE COAST.
LOW CLOUD HANGS AROUND OVERNIGHT AND EVEN IF RAIN IS NOT FALLING
FROM THE SKY IT SEEMS LIKELY THERE WILL BE MIST/FOG AROUND. LOWS
WILL END UP NEAR NORMAL.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE DECLINE THROUGH SATURDAY AS OUR OFFSHORE
FRONT IS PUSHED TO THE SOUTH BY BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE
WEST. DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD TAKE HOLD LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING AWAY FROM THE COAST. A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH WITH
A SMALL SURGE OF MOISTURE COULD BRING ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT, BUT IF RAIN MAKES IT TO THE GROUND IT SHOULD BE
LIGHT. THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD SATURDAY NIGHT ONWARDS LOOKS
DRY.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH INTO MONDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
RAIN DURING THE DAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR
TUESDAY. A COUPLE SURGES OF MOISTURE TRY TO MOVE THROUGH BUT NOTHING
SIGNIFICANT UNTIL A COLD FRONT INTO THURSDAY. THIS MAY BRING A SURGE
OF PWATS +1" AND ENOUGH FORCING THAT COULD BEAT THE DRY AIR IN PLACE
TO BRING BACK THE POSSIBILITY OF RAIN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD WITH
COLD, DRY WEATHER UNTIL ANOTHER FRONT COULD BRING RAIN CHANCES BACK
FOR THURSDAY.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
RAIN HAS ARRIVED AT ALL SITES WITH BOTH CEILING AND VISIBILITY
DROPPING INTO MVFR/IFR AT TIMES. THE TREND OF CONDITIONS
WORSENING WILL CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND ALL
SITES ARE LIKELY TO BE IFR BY MID TO LATE MORNING. RAIN LOSES
INTENSITY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT LOW LEVELS ARE NEARLY
SATURATED AND WHERE RAIN DOES COME TO AN END THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT, LOWEST RAIN CHANCES ARE INLAND, LOW CLOUDS WILL HANG
AROUND ACCOMPANIED BY HEAVY MIST. IFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
VALID TAF PERIOD ALTHOUGH BRIEF IMPROVEMENTS TO MVFR CANNOT BE
RULED OUT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...IFR THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR/VFR SUNDAY; MVFR/IFR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. VFR
RETURNS LATE MONDAY NIGHT.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT...WEAK FRONT IN THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTH, LEADING TO NORTHEAST FLOW AROUND 10 KT.
SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO 10- 15 KT LATE THIS MORNING AS WEAK LOW
PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE STALLED FRONT. THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW
IN THE AFTERNOON CAUSES WINDS TO BACK FROM NORTH-NORTHEAST TO
NORTH- NORTHWEST. ONCE THE LOW PASSES THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
DROP BACK CLOSER TO 10 KT. SEAS 2-3 FT WILL BE A MIX OF THE
DOMINANT SOUTHEAST SWELL AND A WEAK NORTHEAST WIND WAVE.
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...OFFSHORE WINDS ~10 KTS DUE TO BUILDING
HIGH PRESSURE. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING WORSENING MARINE
CONDITIONS MONDAY, SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE DUE TO
INCREASED NE WINDS AND SEAS. BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY WILL LEAD
TO BETTER CONDITIONS BUT INCREASING SW FLOW AHEAD OF ANOTHER FRONTAL
PASSAGE COULD BRING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS AGAIN WEDNESDAY.
SEAS GENERALLY 2-3 FT BUT INCREASING WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL
PASSAGES.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ106-
108-110.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ107.
SC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR SCZ054-
056.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...ILM
NEAR TERM...III
SHORT TERM...LEW
LONG TERM...LEW
AVIATION...III
MARINE...III/LEW
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