295
FXUS62 KILM 271043
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
643 AM EDT TUE OCT 27 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES ISSUED FOR ALL BEACHES AND FOR THE
LOWER CAPE FEAR RIVER. AVIATION SECTION UPDATED FOR 12Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES CONDENSED ALTHOUGH FORECAST THINKING HAS NOT
CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DRY HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL PRODUCE MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING AND, AT TIMES, ADVERSE MARINE AND SURF CONDITIONS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...DRY HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL PRODUCE MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING AND, AT TIMES, ADVERSE MARINE AND SURF CONDITIONS.
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED NORTH OF THE AREA TODAY WITH THE
GRADIENT IN A MORE RELAXED STATE COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS. HOWEVER,
THE DURATION OF DECREASED WINDS WILL BE BRIEF. REINFORCING HIGH
BUILDS DOWN THE COAST WED INTO THU, BRINGING ANOTHER SURGE IN
NORTHEAST WINDS AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. LACK OF ANY SURFACE
LOW WILL PREVENT STRONG, GUSTY WINDS, BUT NORTHEAST FLOW WILL
BE STRONG ENOUGH TO CAUSE SEVERAL ISSUES. THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG, DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS REMAINS ELEVATED THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL STRONG LONGSHORE CURRENTS
FOR EAST FACING BEACHES. FOR MARINE IMPLICATIONS SEE THE MARINE
SECTION.
COASTAL FLOODING: HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES COMBINED WITH
PROLONGED, STRONG NORTHEAST FLOW WILL PUSH WATER LEVELS ALONG
THE COAST OVER MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS, ESPECIALLY WITH THE
MORNING HIGH TIDES. AN ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE BEACHES
AND THE LOWER CAPE FEAR RIVER FOR THIS MORNING.
AS FAR AS SENSIBLE WEATHER GOES, RIDGING ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE WILL KEEP THE REGION DRY, BUT BREEZY. MIDWEEK THERE
WILL BE AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE, LEADING TO AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER. TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL TODAY AND TONIGHT TURN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WED THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO TONIGHT WITH A FEW PASSING HIGH
CLOUDS AND LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS. WINDS TURN EASTERLY FOR
COASTAL TERMINALS FOR THIS AFTERNOON, THOUGH GENERALLY REMAINING
10 KTS OR LESS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE NORTH
EARLY WED MORNING MAY BRING IFR/MVFR STRATUS TO OUR AREA DURING
THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD, PARTICULARLY AT
KILM AND KLBT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK: LOW CEILINGS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH
POTENTIAL FOR MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR FOR LBT/FLO. OTHERWISE VFR
WITH GUSTY NE WINDS AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST.
MARINE
NO MARINE HEADLINES CURRENTLY ACTIVE, ALTHOUGH WOULD EXPECT TO
SEE ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ISSUED LATER TODAY STARTING
WED. NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES TODAY, BUT GRADIENT HAS WEAKENED,
ALLOWING LOWER WIND SPEEDS. SEAS CONTINUE FALLING AND ARE NOW
UNDER 6 FT WITHIN 20 NM. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH IS
REINFORCED WED INTO THU, LEADING TO AN INCREASE IN NORTHEAST
FLOW. THE LACK OF ANY NOTABLE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL KEEP
SPEEDS UNDER 25 KT, BARELY TOUCHING 20 KT WED AND THU. HOWEVER,
THE EXTENDED DURATION OF THE ENHANCED NORTHEAST FLOW, ON TOP OF
AN ALREADY ELEVATED SEA STATE (EASTERLY SWELL 4-5 FT), WILL
PUSH SEAS OVER 6 FT WED AND THU. GRADIENT STARTS TO RELAX LATE
THU WITH WINDS AND SEAS GRADUALLY DECREASING THU NIGHT INTO FRI.
LOOKS LIKE A WEEKEND WITHOUT HEADLINES, ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS ARE
STILL LIKELY TO BE SOMEWHAT TREACHEROUS WITH NORTHEAST WINDS
15-20 KT AND SEAS 4-5 FT - A MIX OF SWELL AND WIND WAVE.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ106-
108-110.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NCZ107.
HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NCZ108.
SC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR SCZ054-
056.
HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR SCZ056.
MARINE...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...ILM
KEY MESSAGES...III
DISCUSSION...III
AVIATION...VAO
MARINE...III
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