348
FXUS62 KILM 280112
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
912 PM EDT MON APR 27 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED.
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 00Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
KEY MESSAGE 1...RAIN CHANCES LOOK GOOD MID WEEK AND AGAIN LATE WEEK
BUT RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL NOT BRING APPRECIABLE DROUGHT RELIEF.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...RAIN CHANCES LOOK GOOD MID WEEK AND AGAIN LATE WEEK
BUT RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL NOT BRING APPRECIABLE DROUGHT RELIEF.
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TUE NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT
WED NIGHT. IN BETWEEN WE HAVE SOME DECENT RAIN CHANCES DUE TO UNSEASONABLY
HIGH MOISTURE LEVELS (PWAT ~1.6"), LIMITED INSTABILITY (NBM 50TH
PERCENTILE SBCAPE <600 J/KG AND 90TH PERCENTILE SBCAPE <1000 J/KG),
AND SOME FORCING FOR ASCENT FROM THE FRONTS AND MID- LEVEL SHORTWAVES.
RAIN TOTALS SHOULD MAINLY BE A HALF INCH OR LESS, BUT SOME SPOTS
(ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTHWEST) COULD PICK UP AN INCH OR MORE. CERTAINLY
WELCOME BUT UNFORTUNATELY WON'T BE MAKING MUCH DENT IN THE ONGOING
DROUGHT CONDITIONS. ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED
CONVECTION, WE'RE CURRENTLY THINKING THE CLOUD COVERAGE SHOULD BE
GREAT ENOUGH TO HELP LIMIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY.
THUS, WE DON'T EXPECT ANY SEVERE STORMS AT THIS TIME.
ANOTHER PRETTY GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN IS EXPECTED LATE WEEK AS A LOW
PRESSURE LIKELY IMPACTS THE AREA. ONCE AGAIN SHEAR WILL BE PLENTIFUL
BUT INSTABILITY APPEARS TO BE EVEN LESS THAN ON WEDNESDAY SO REALLY
DOESN'T APPEAR TO BE ANY RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS.
AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR WITH LIGHT NE WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL COME AROUND
TO THE SW AFTER SUNRISE ~6-8 KTS WITH AN AFTERNOON SEABREEZE AT
THE COASTAL TERMINALS. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE
DAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES, BRINGING LOW RAIN CHANCES
INLAND. IMPACTS TO TERMINALS FROM SHOWERS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.
EXTENDED FORECAST... INCREASING RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
ON THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD COULD BRING PERIODIC MVFR/IFR
RESTRICTIONS, PARTICULARLY ON WEDNESDAY AND SATURDAY.
OTHERWISE, PREDOMINANT VFR.
MARINE
THROUGH TUESDAY... NORTHEAST WINDS HAVE REMAINED ELEVATED TODAY
AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE. THESE BREEZY WINDS HAVE
MAINTAINED SOME 6 FOOT SEAS ACROSS THE REGION. SC NEARSHORE
WATERS HAVE IMPROVED FASTER DUE TO SHELTERING FROM SOUTHEASTERN
NC. NC NEARSHORE WATERS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH AND EAST WILL CONTINUE TO
EXTEND SOUTHWARD TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY, BRINGING NE WINDS TO THE
E AND FALLING TO 10-15 KNOTS. IMPROVING CONDITIONS SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH LATE TUESDAY. A WEAK SEA BREEZE IS LIKELY
DURING THE AFTERNOON.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH SHOULD MOVE THROUGH WED NIGHT. WIND
GUSTS COULD NEAR SCA LEVELS (25 KT) LATER WED/WED NIGHT BUT NOT
EXPECTING THE NEED FOR A HEADLINE AT THIS TIME WITH SEAS PEAKING AT
AROUND 4-5 FT. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD THEN BRIEFLY RETURN BEFORE LOW
PRESSURE IMPACTS THE AREA LATE WEEK WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SCA
CONDITIONS.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...LEW/ABW
KEY MESSAGES...RJB
DISCUSSION...RJB
AVIATION...LEW
MARINE...RJB/21
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