117
FXUS62 KILM 191028
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
628 AM EDT SUN JUL 19 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS TODAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT TODAY WITH ADDITIONAL ADVISORIES POSSIBLE
EARLY THIS WEEK.
2) PERIODS TO MONITOR FOR ENHANCED PRECIP CHANCES ARE SUNDAY
NIGHT/MONDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY AHEAD OF COLD
FRONTS. THESE FRONTS WILL ALSO BRING A LOW RISK FOR
THUNDERSTORMS CONTAINING STRONG TO LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT TODAY WITH ADDITIONAL
ADVISORIES POSSIBLE EARLY THIS WEEK.
MID-UPPER RIDGING WILL BE NUDGED SOUTHWARD TODAY AS A TROUGH PASSES
BY TO THE NORTH. REMNANT DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE WILL STILL HAVE SOME
INFLUENCE ON TODAY'S WEATHER, SUPPORTING ANOTHER ABNORMALLY WARM DAY
WITH ISOLATED POP-UP SHOWERS AND STORMS OFFERING LITTLE RELIEF DUE
TO THEIR SMALL SIZE AND SHORT-LIVED NATURE. ALTHOUGH THE
LEFTOVER DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL HELP TO KNOCK DEW POINTS DOWN
INTO THE LOW-MID 70S INLAND OF THE SEA BREEZE DURING THE
AFTERNOON, MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 90S STILL SUPPORT HEAT
INDICES REACHING AROUND OR ABOVE 105F IN MANY LOCATIONS.
NEVERTHELESS, MOISTURE POOLING AHEAD OF A STALLING COLD FRONT
WILL HELP TO INCREASE MOISTURE ALOFT AND SHOULD RESULT IN MORE
CLOUDS THAN ON SATURDAY, WHICH COULD PREVENT SOME AREAS FROM
REACHING THE 105F HEAT INDEX CRITERIA.
ADDITIONAL VERY WARM AND HUMID DAYS WILL FOLLOW INTO THE FIRST HALF
OF THE NEW WEEK AS THE AFOREMENTIONED STALLED FRONT LIFTS BACK
NORTHWARD ON MONDAY. ADDITIONAL HEAT ADVISORIES MAY BE NECESSARY
DEPENDING ON THE ANTICIPATED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AND
ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER, WHICH WILL AFFECT MAX TEMPERATURES AND
PREVENT DEW POINTS FROM DROPPING AS MUCH DURING THE AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGE 2...PERIODS TO MONITOR FOR ENHANCED PRECIP CHANCES
ARE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY AHEAD
OF COLD FRONTS. THESE FRONTS WILL ALSO BRING A LOW RISK FOR
THUNDERSTORMS CONTAINING STRONG TO LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
AS A TROUGH AXIS PASSES TO THE NORTH TODAY, A COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE
SOUTHWARD INTO NORTH CAROLINA AND STALL. GUIDANCE TOOLS AND ENSEMBLE
SYSTEMS SHOW THE FORECAST AREA BEING ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGES OF
GREATER PRECIP COVERAGE OVER SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH OUR NORTHERN
TIER OF COUNTIES (PENDER THROUGH MARLBORO) HAVING THE BEST
RELATIVE CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS OR STORMS TO NOSE DOWN
FROM THE NORTH. THERE IS ALSO A LOW RISK FOR STRONG TO LOCALLY
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS FROM STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH
WEAK LINGERING TROUGHING IN PLACE AND THE FRONT LIFTING BACK
NORTHWARD, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POP-UP SHOWERS AND STORMS
APPEAR LIKELY ON MONDAY.
AS TROUGHING BECOMES REINFORCED OVER THE EASTERN CONUS DURING
MIDWEEK, A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO PUSH SOUTHWARD DURING
THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIMEFRAME. THIS IS LIKELY TO ENHANCE PRECIP
COVERAGE INTO THE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS REALM, EVEN DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOW FAR SOUTH THIS FRONT REACHES BEFORE STALLING,
AND WHEN THIS OCCURS, CARRIES LOW CONFIDENCE AS GUIDANCE TOOLS
REMAIN MIXED WITH RESPECT TO ITS POSITION, SO THIS WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED AS SHOWER AND STORM COVERAGE COULD BE ENHANCED INTO NEXT
WEEKEND IF THE FRONT IS STALLED ALONG THE COAST AS OPPOSED TO
FURTHER OFFSHORE OVER THE GULF STREAM. IN ADDITION, THIS FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO BRING A RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG TO LOCALLY
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ON WEDNESDAY, ALONG WITH A THREAT FOR LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING FROM HEAVY STORMS TRACKING OVER THE SAME AREA
MULTIPLE TIMES. THE FLASH FLOODING THREAT WILL PERSIST IF THE FRONT
STALLS ALONG OR JUST INLAND OF THE COAST.
AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
EXCEPT FOR A LOW PROBABILITY OF MVFR CEILINGS BRIEFLY THIS
MORNING ALONG THE COAST, VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS. BY EARLY AFTERNOON (18Z) THERE IS A LOW TO
MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP WITH IMPACTS POSSIBLE AT KLBT AND KILM. MODERATE
SOUTHWEST WINDS INLAND WILL BE ENHANCED BY THE SEABREEZE WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT ALONG THE COAST WITH
GUSTS TO 25 KT EXPECTED.
A SLIGHTLY BETTER POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR CONVECTION TO IMPACT THE
KLBT AIRPORT AFTER SUNSET (01Z) THIS EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS COULD CONTINUE DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA OVERNIGHT, BUT CONFIDENCE IN TIMING IS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAFS.
EXTENDED FORECAST... WITH A FRONT STALLED TO THE NORTH, ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THE NIGHT WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR OR IFR RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE. CONFIDENCE IN SHOWERS/STORMS MATERIALIZING IS MODERATE
TO HIGH, BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE COVERAGE IS LOW. FORECAST STORM
CHANCES DECREASE ON TUESDAY, LEAVING A LOW RISK FOR TRANSIENT
MVFR OR IFR RESTRICTIONS IN CONVECTION. AN APPROACHING STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL BRING INCREASED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
MARINE
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... STEADY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH DAILY ENHANCEMENTS
NEARSHORE DUE TO THE SEA BREEZE. IN ADDITION, AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT WILL HELP TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TODAY AND AGAIN FROM
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WARRANTING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR
BOTH PERIODS. SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH TODAY IN THE 3-5 FT RANGE
IN THE 0-20NMI ZONES AND 5-6 FT IN THE 20-60NMI ZONES. SEAS SUBSIDE
SOMEWHAT FOR THE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY PERIOD BEFORE
RISING AGAIN TO 4-6 FT IN THE 0-20NMI ZONES AND 6-7 FT IN THE 20-
60NMI ZONES BETWEEN LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE
SUBSIDING ON THURSDAY IN TANDEM WITH WEAKENING WINDS. THE AREA OF
INTEREST FOR POSSIBLE TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE NORTHEAST GULF NOW
CARRIES AN INVEST NUMBER (91L) AND A 60% CHANCE OF FORMATION THROUGH
48 HRS. MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS THIS LOW IN THE GULF DUE TO AN INCOMING
STRONG COLD FRONT WHICH STALLS OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY.
EQUIPMENT
A NUMBER OF EQUIPMENT ISSUES HAVE ARISEN THIS MORNING:
- KCRE ASOS RAIN GAUGE IS OUT OF SERVICE. FOR CLIMATE RECORD
PURPOSES, KMYR IS THE PRIMARY BACKUP SITE FOR PRECIPITATION
TOTALS.
- KLBT ASOS HAS ONLY BEEN INTERMITTENTLY TRANSMITTING
OBSERVATIONS THIS MORNING. THE LAST FULL METAR WAS AT 0656Z,
WITH A DOZEN OR SO 5-MINUTE OBS GETTING THROUGH SINCE.
- KLTX RADAR IS SUFFERING PEDESTAL ISSUES REQUIRING FREQUENT
RESETS.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR NCZ087-096-099-105>110.
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NCZ106-108.
SC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR SCZ017-023-024-033-054-058-059.
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR SCZ054-056.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ250-252.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR AMZ254-256.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...ABW
KEY MESSAGES...ABW
DISCUSSION...ABW
AVIATION...TRA
MARINE...ABW
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page