639
FXUS62 KILM 171752
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
152 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND BRINGING A
WARM UP SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. A MINIMAL CHANCE OF RAIN WILL COME
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. DRY HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN MONDAY THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. A
DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A COOL DOWN
FOR MIDWEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS
TONIGHT. WINDS SHOULD GO CALM BY SUNSET AND THE ONLY ITEM
INTERRUPTING IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE AN AREA OF CIRRUS
ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE RIDGE
ALOFT. LOWS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 40S FOR MOST AREAS EXCEPT FOR A FEW
50S ON THE BEACHES. POCOSINS AND AREAS OF PEAT SOIL ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA, SPECIFICALLY HOLLY SHELTER GAMELAND,
MAY DIP INTO THE 30S AGAIN.
THE SURFACE HIGH SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE SATURDAY MORNING WITH WINDS
TURNING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE SHOULD
BOOST TEMPS INTO THE 70S, BUT REMAINING COOLEST ALONG THE BEACHES
WHERE A SEABREEZE SHOULD DEVELOP BEFORE NOON.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
A WARM UP WILL CONTINUE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS A
GOOD 5 DEGREES OR SO WARMER THAN PREVIOUS COUPLE OF NIGHTS. THIS
IS AIDED BY A SLIGHT MOISTENING OF THE AIRMASS IN A SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING FARTHER OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT INTO SUN NIGHT.
EXPECT TEMPS UP CLOSER TO 80 ON SUNDAY WITH A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE AND A GUSTY SOUTHERLY BREEZE. DEWPOINT TEMPS WILL BE
INCREASING ABOUT 15 TO 20 DEGREES AND LOOKING AT PCP WATER
VALUES, THE BEST MOISTURE RETURN WILL COME LATE SUN INTO SUN
NIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THE BEST CHC OF ANY SHWRS WILL
COME LATE SUN AFTN INLAND AND ALONG THE COAST SUN NIGHT, BUT
WILL BE MINIMAL CHANCE. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO MOVE
IN FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH SUN NIGHT INTO
EARLY MON.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
A DRY WEEK AHEAD WITH TEMPS FLUCTUATING A BIT. BY MONDAY
MORNING, THE MID TO UPPER TROUGH WILL HAVE PUSHED THE COLD FRONT
OFFSHORE WHILE LIFTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST LEAVING A SOMEWHAT
FLAT FLOW ALOFT. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD FROM THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MON INTO TUE. OVERALL, COOL WEATHER MON INTO
MON NIGHT WITH TEMPS UP NEAR 70 FOR HIGHS AND OVERNIGHT LOWS
DROPPING BELOW 50 IN MOST PLACES INLAND OF THE COAST. THEN IT
WILL WARM TUES BEFORE A DRY COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH TUES NIGHT
KNOCKING TEMPS BACK DOWN FOR MIDWEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN.
BY FRI, IT WILL BEGIN TO WARM AGAIN. A SHORTWAVE MAY APPROACH
FROM THE WEST LATE FRI OR INTO THE WEEKEND THAT MAY PROVIDE SOME
CLOUDS, BUT OTHERWISE, SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE THROUGH
THE WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...GUSTS TO 25 KT ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
ASIDE FROM A LOW POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS OR VISIBILITY
SUNDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH SHOWERS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT, VFR
SHOULD CONTINUE.
MARINE
THROUGH SATURDAY...BREEZY NORTH WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH BY
SUNSET AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. THE CENTER OF
THE HIGH SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE SATURDAY MORNING WITH LIGHT
OFFSHORE WINDS TURNING SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY AND INCREASING TO
AROUND 10 KNOTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE PRIMARY WAVE COMPONENT
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY SHOULD BE AN 11 SECOND SWELL FROM THE EAST-
NORTHEAST AVERAGING 2-3 FEET ACROSS OPEN WATERS BUT ONLY 1-2
FEET WEST OF FRYING PAN SHOALS.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFF OF THE CAPE
FEAR COAST SAT NIGHT WILL SHIFT FARTHER OUT TO SEA THROUGH SUN
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW
WILL VEER TO THE SW AND INCREASE THROUGH SUN WITH BUILDING SEAS
THROUGH SUN INTO SUN NIGHT AHEAD OF COLD FRONT REACHING SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS. SHOULD SEE SW WINDS UP TO 25 KTS WITH
HIGHER GUSTS SUN NIGHT AND SEAS UP TO 6 FT.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE W-NW AFTER MIDNIGHT SUN NIGHT AS COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST ON
MONDAY. WIND SAND SEAS WILL DIMINISH SLOWLY THROUGH MON BUT WILL
BE DOWN TO 5 TO 10 KTS BY MON NIGHT REMAINING LIGHT THROUGH TUES
WITH SEAS DOWN FROM 3 TO 5 FT MON AFTN TO 2 TO 4 FT MON NIGHT
THROUGH TUES. EXPECT ANOTHER DRY COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH TUES
NIGHT.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 6 PM TO 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
NCZ107.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...TRA
MARINE...TRA/RGZ
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