898  
FXUS62 KILM 140745  
AFDILM  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC  
345 AM EDT WED APR 14 2021  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
GENERALLY DRY AND WARM WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION LATE  
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS.  
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED NEXT WEEKEND WITH LOW  
RAIN CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM  
OFFSHORE.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
 
 
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOCAL  
AREA WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE TN VALLEY.  
AHEAD OF THE FRONT TODAY OVER THE CAROLINAS EXPECT A DRY DAY IN  
MOST AREAS AS MOISTURE PROFILES ARE MEAGER AND FORCING  
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT AND MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL  
REMAIN OFF TO THE W. EXPECT A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH BREEZY  
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND WARMER TEMPS THAN YESTERDAY...HIGHS RANGING  
FROM THE 70S AT THE COAST TO MID 80S INLAND. RAIN CHANCES THEN  
INCREASE THIS EVENING AS A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM  
THE W AND MOISTURE INCREASES FROM THE SFC UP TO 500 MB. AFTER A  
POSSIBLE BREAK IN THE PCPN THU MORNING, CHANCES RAMP BACK UP THU  
AFTN AS THE MAIN COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA, WITH THE HIGHEST  
CHANCES (50-60%) OVER SE AREAS WHERE THE BEST MOISTURE WILL  
RESIDE. MAINLY JUST LIGHT RAIN EXPECTED WITH NO THUNDER CARRIED  
IN THE FORECAST. TEMPS THU COOLER THAN TODAY DUE TO THE  
CLOUDINESS AND SHRAS...HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 70S.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
 
 
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT,  
THERE COULD BE LINGERING LIGHT RAIN ALONG THE COAST AFTER  
SUNSET. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH QUICKLY AROUND MIDNIGHT  
WITH A SHARP DECREASE IN TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS BEHIND IT. RIDGING  
FROM THE WEST- NORTHWEST FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WILL  
MAINTAIN CAA AND DRY WEATHER. SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS FOR  
THE SHORT TERM, WITH LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S, HIGHS  
FRIDAY AROUND 70, AND LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT AROUND 50.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
 
 
LATE SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL IMPACTED BY A SERIES OF WEAK  
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST, AS  
ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IS EJECTED ACROSS THE REGION. THE  
FIRST ONE LATE SATURDAY CURRENTLY HAS THE BEST AGREEMENT AMONGST  
GUIDANCE, AND CLOSE TO THE COAST, TO WARRANT CHANCE POPS FOR  
MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. LATEST GUIDANCE KEEPS  
MOST OF THE MOISTURE SUNDAY AND MONDAY OFFSHORE, WITH ONLY LOW  
RAIN CHANCES CLOSER TO THE COAST IN THE FORECAST. HIGHS AROUND  
70 SATURDAY WILL INCREASE TO NEAR NORMAL SATURDAY NIGHT INTO  
EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
 
 
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LIGHT WINDS  
SHOULD BECOME SOUTHERLY DURING THE DAY, AND WILL INCREASE  
SUBSTANTIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE COAST DUE TO THE  
SEABREEZE CIRCULATION. GUSTS OVER 20 KNOTS SHOULD DEVELOP AFTER  
18-19Z AT CRE, MYR, AND ILM.  
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR WILL DOMINATE. A WEAK FRONT THURSDAY AND  
LOW PRESSURE PASSING OFFSHORE SATURDAY COULD BRING LOWER  
CEILINGS, BUT IFR CONDITIONS DO NOT APPEAR LIKELY AT THIS TIME.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
THROUGH THURSDAY... GENERAL TREND THROUGH THE DAY TODAY WILL BE  
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES  
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. AFTER COLLABORATION WITH  
NEIGHBORING OFFICES AND LOOKING AT LATEST HIRES GUIDANCE,  
DECIDED TO HOIST A SHORT SCA JUST FOR TONIGHT DURING THE TIME OF  
PEAK WINDS WHEN FREQUENT SW GUSTS TO 25 KT ARE EXPECTED. SEAS  
MAINLY REACHING 5 FT. SOME SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT IN MARINE  
CONDITIONS THEN FOR DAYTIME THU BEFORE THE MAIN COLD FROPA,  
THOUGH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT ARE STILL EXPECTED ALL DAY.  
 
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS  
WILL QUICKLY TURN NORTHERLY THURSDAY NIGHT BEHIND A STRONG COLD  
FRONT. NORTH WINDS 15-20 KTS FRIDAY MORNING WILL WEAKEN QUITE A  
BIT DURING THE DAY AS TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT DISAPPEARS. WINDS  
AROUND 10 KTS OR LESS WILL BRIEFLY BACK TO SOUTHWESTERLY FRIDAY  
EVENING, BEFORE TURNING CLOCKWISE 360 DEGREES OVER THE NEXT 24  
HOURS AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE WATERS LATE  
SATURDAY. WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS UNDER 10 KTS  
THROUGH SUNDAY WITH SEVERAL CHANGES TO WIND DIRECTION AS LOW  
MOVES OFF TO THE NE, WEAK BOUNDARY DEVELOPS OFFSHORE, AND A  
SECOND LOW LOOKS TO DEVELOP TO THE SOUTH LATE SUNDAY. SEAS 3 TO  
4 FT THURSDAY NIGHT DUE TO WEAKENING S WIND WAVE WILL LOWER TO  
AROUND 2 FT FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, COMBINATION OF WIND CHOP  
AND PERSISTING 1-2 FT 10S E SWELL.  
 

 
   
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
SC...NONE.  
NC...NONE.  
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EDT  
THURSDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-256.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...ILM  
NEAR TERM...MAS  
SHORT TERM...VAO  
LONG TERM...VAO  
AVIATION...MAS  
MARINE...MAS/VAO  
 
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