057  
FXUS62 KILM 170434  
AFDILM  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC  
1234 AM EDT WED JUL 17 2019  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS RIDGING  
FROM HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED WELL OFFSHORE FROM THE SOUTHEAST  
U.S. COAST, EXTENDS INLAND ACROSS FLORIDA. GENERAL TROFFING  
WILL ALSO PERSIST ACROSS THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS INTO NEXT WEEK.  
WEAK IMPULSES ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN THE TROF THU INTO FRI AND  
AGAIN MON INTO TUE. THE DAILY TROFFING AND INLAND PROGRESSING  
SEA BREEZE WILL BOTH AID SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT  
EACH DAY. THE IMPULSES ALOFT WILL FURTHER AID CONVECTION BOTH IN  
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
 
 
AS OF 845 PM TUESDAY...ISOLATED CONVECTION THIS AFTN/EVENING HAS  
DISSIPATED. WILL DEAL WITH THINNING CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS  
OVERNIGHT, MAINLY NORTH OF THE NC-SC BORDER. BUT OVERALL,  
BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE ACROSS LOCATIONS  
THAT SAW TSRA. BUT FOR THE MOST PART, WILL STICK WITH  
PERSISTENCE WHICH KEEPS FOG AT BAY. SFC DEWPOINTS RUNNING  
SLIGHTLY HIER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS WHICH MEANS ANOTHER STICKY  
NIGHT AHEAD OF US. S-SW WINDS GENERALLY 2(INLAND) TO 4(COAST)  
MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM BOTTOMING OUT.  
 
PREVIOUS....................................................  
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH  
THE REMAINDER OF TODAY AND AGAIN TOMORROW AFTN. THE COMBINATION  
OF TEMPS IN THE 90S AND DEWPOINT TEMPS WELL INTO THE 70S WILL  
PRODUCE HEAT INDICES OVER 105 IN MANY PLACES. HEAT ILLNESSES  
ARE POSSIBLE FOR THOSE SPENDING TIME OUTDOORS DURING WED AFTN.  
 
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PROVIDED  
A BIT OF RELIEF FROM HEAT, BUT OVERALL, HEAT INDICES WERE ONCE  
AGAIN UP TO 107 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON. THE HEAT WILL CONTINUE  
AS MID TO UPPER RIDGE RUNS UP THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST. THIS RIDGE  
WILL GET NUDGED SOUTH AND EAST LATE WED AS TROUGH APPROACHES  
FROM THE W-NW. THIS TROUGH IS THE REMAINS OF TROPICAL SYSTEM  
ONCE NAMED BARRY. MOST OF THE ENHANCED ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH  
THIS TROUGH HEADING OUR WAY, WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA ON  
WED. OVERALL, HOT AND HUMID AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE WITH  
ANOTHER DAY OF MAINLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCT CONVECTION EXPECTED  
ON WED, MAINLY FOCUSED ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY AND  
FARTHER INLAND ALONG THERMAL TROUGH. MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS  
OVERNIGHT WED WITH TROUGH MOVING EAST OVER THE CAROLINAS. TEMPS  
BOTH TONIGHT AND WED NIGHT WILL REMAIN IN THE MID 70S TO NEAR  
80.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT/
 
 
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...ESSENTIALLY A PERSISTENCE SUMMERTIME  
FORECAST WITH A MORE PRONOUNCED RIDGE TO THE WEST KINDA  
TRANSITIONING TO A MORE FLAT PATTERN LATER. AT THE SURFACE, THE  
PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL BECOME A LITTLE BETTER DEFINED IN TIME.  
OVERALL, THERE IS REALLY NO FEATURE TO ENHANCE POPS OTHER THAN  
THE SLIGHTLY LOWERING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS AND THE PIEDMONT TROUGH.  
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES REMAIN PEGGED IN THE MIDDLE 90S YET  
ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THURSDAY.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
 
 
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...A LETHARGIC MID LEVEL PATTERN, VERY  
TYPICAL FOR MID TO LATE JULY WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. IT DOES  
APPEAR HOWEVER THAT A WEAKNESS IN RESPECTIVE MID LEVEL RIDGE'S  
TO THE EAST AND WEST DEVELOPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. THIS ALLOWS  
A LITTLE MORE CONDUCIVE PATTERN FOR MOSTLY DIURNAL CONVECTION  
ALTHOUGH ACTIVITY DEVELOPING OFFSHORE AND MEANDERING TO THE  
COAST IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS IS FAIR GAME AS WELL. VERY WARM  
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE. THE MEX GFS NUMBERS SHOW THE  
POSSIBILITY OF AN AIR MASS CHANGE LATE IN THE PERIOD BUT IT  
SEEMS UNLIKELY.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
 
 
AS OF 06Z...VFR FOR AREA TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON  
HOURS IN THE VICINITY OF AIRPORTS WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN  
DEVELOPMENT, BUT LOW CONFIDENCE ON ACTUAL LOCATIONS OF AFTERNOON  
STORMS.  
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OUTSIDE ANY ISOLATED  
TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION THE FIRST PART OF THE UPCOMING  
WEEK.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
TONIGHT THRU WED NIGHT:  
AS OF 830 PM TUESDAY...RELAXED SFC PG WILL BEGIN A SLOW  
TIGHTENING PHASE LATE TONIGHT THRU WED NIGHT. S-SW WINDS 5 KT OR  
LESS TO INCREASE TO 5 TO 10 KT BY DAYBREAK WED, AND TO AROUND 15  
KT DURING WED. WITH AN ACTIVE SEA BREEZE, COULD SEE WINDS 15 TO  
20 KT WITHIN 10 NM OF THE COAST WED AFTN AND EVENING.  
SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE GOVERNED BY 3 TO 5 SECOND PERIOD WIND  
DRIVEN WAVES. AN UNDERLYING SMALL 1 TO 1.5 FOOT ESE SWELL WILL  
CONTINUE THRU THIS PERIOD. DO NOT EXPECT CONVECTION OVERNIGHT.  
 
PREVIOUS..................................................  
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE, BUT WILL  
KICK UP A BIT FROM 10 KT OR LESS UP TO 10 TO 15 KTS AS TROUGH  
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATE WED. EXPECT SEAS LESS THAN 2 FT TO  
INCREASE SLIGHTLY TO 3 TO 4 FT WED NIGHT IN SOUTHERLY PUSH.  
AFTERNOON GUSTS WILL DEVELOP UP TO 20 KTS, MAINLY NEAR SHORE IN  
AFTN SEA BREEZE. A SLIGHTLY LONGER PERIOD SE SWELL AROUND 10  
SECONDS WILL CONTINUE TO MIX IN WITH SHORTER PERIOD WIND WAVES.  
 
THU THRU SUN:  
STEADY STATE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS EXPECTED  
THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE  
WITH SIGNIFICANT SEAS OF 2-4 FEET. THERE MAY BE SOME OVERNIGHT  
ENHANCEMENT OF WIND SPEEDS AND IN FACT WOULD EXPECT IT THIS  
WEEKEND VIA A MORE PRONOUNCED PIEDMONT TROUGH.  
 

 
   
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
SC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING  
FOR SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039-054>056-058-059.  
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 6 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH  
THIS EVENING FOR SCZ054-056.  
NC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING  
FOR NCZ087-096-099-105>110.  
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 6 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH  
THIS EVENING FOR NCZ106-108.  
MARINE...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...DCH/RGZ  
NEAR TERM...DCH/RGZ  
SHORT TERM...SHK  
LONG TERM...SHK  
AVIATION...MCK  
 
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