060  
FXUS62 KILM 110736  
AFDILM  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC  
336 AM EDT FRI OCT 11 2024  
   
SYNOPSIS  
 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE NORTH BRINGING COOL, DRY  
WEATHER OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA  
LATE MONDAY, FOLLOWED BY DRY HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE REMAINDER OF  
THE WEEK.  
 
 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/  
 
CLEAR SKIES AND COOL TEMPERATURES IN STORE THROUGH TONIGHT  
COURTESY OF EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN US. WILL  
SEE A FEW LIGHT GUSTS JUST AFTER SUNRISE WINDS DIE DOWN BY  
MIDDAY AS CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OVERHEAD. HIGH TEMPS IN  
THE LOW 70S THIS AFTERNOON. LOW TEMPS TONIGHT ARE A BIT  
TRICKIER, BUT GIVEN EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS AND  
PREVAILING HIGH PRESSURE THE FORECAST IS ON THE LOW SIDE OF  
GUIDANCE. CURRENT FORECAST HAS 45F AND BELOW TONIGHT (AROUND 50  
NEAR IMMEDIATE COASTLINE), WITH TRADITIONAL COOL SPOTS DROPPING  
TO NEAR 40F. UPPER 30S MAY BE POSSIBLE IN SOME OF OUR COLDEST  
LOCATIONS, SUCH AS HOLLY SHELTER IN PENDER COUNTY.  
 
 
   
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/  
 
CONTINUED DRY, COOL CONDITIONS THIS PERIOD WITH SFC HIGH  
PRESSURE CENTERED OFF TO THE NORTH. EXPECT A SUNNY/CLEAR SKY  
WITH LIGHT WIND. HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID 70S SAT WITH LOWS SAT  
NIGHT IN THE UPR 40S TO MID 50S.  
 
 
   
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/  
 
VERY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE DURATION OF THE LONG TERM  
PERIOD. AFOREMENTIONED SFC HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE SUN  
INTO MON ALLOWING FOR A SMALL WARMUP WITH SW FLOW...HIGHS IN THE  
LOW/MID 80S. A COLD FROPA IS THEN PROGGED FOR LATE MON, BUT  
WILL KEEP POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT DUE TO VERY DRY  
PROFILES, BUT SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE. POST-FRONTAL CAA WILL  
LEAD TO A COOLER NEXT FEW DAYS, WITH FORECAST HIGHS ONLY IN THE  
60S TUE THROUGH THU.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/  
 
VFR. LIGHT WINDS REMAIN OUT OF THE NNE, WITH GUSTS OF 10-15 KTS  
AFTER SUNRISE THROUGH ABOUT 16Z BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES  
OVERHEAD AND WINDS WEAKEN.  
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR.  
 
 
   
MARINE  
 
THROUGH TONIGHT...GUSTY NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE LOCAL  
COASTAL WATERS WILL BE WEAKENING THIS MORNING AS CENTER OF HIGH  
PRESSURE INLAND SHIFTS OVERHEAD, WITH WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS  
EXPECTED BY THIS EVENING. SEAS CURRENTLY AT 5-8 FT WILL LOWER TO  
4-6 FT THIS MORNING AS ENE SWELL CONTINUES TO WEAKEN.  
CONDITIONS WILL BE SUB-ADVISORY BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING  
WITH SEAS CONTINUING TO LOWER TO 2-4 FT BY SATURDAY MORNING.  
 
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...LIGHT WINDS SAT AND SUN WITH SFC HIGH  
PRESSURE SLIDING OFFSHORE. A DRY COLD FROPA IS EXPECTED LATE  
MON WITH GUSTS UP TO 20-25 KT AND 3-5 FT SEAS, SLIGHTLY LOWERING  
INTO TUE BUT REMAINING SOMEWHAT ELEVATED DUE TO CONTINUED WEAK  
CAA. NO HEADLINES ANTICIPATED ATTM.  
 
 
   
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EDT  
THIS EVENING FOR NCZ107.  
SC...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS FROM 6 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS  
EVENING FOR SCZ056.  
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ250-  
252-254-256.  
 
 
 
 
 
SYNOPSIS...ILM  
NEAR TERM...VAO  
SHORT TERM...MAS  
LONG TERM...MAS  
AVIATION...VAO  
MARINE...MAS/VAO  
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