550  
FXUS62 KILM 211506  
AFDILM  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC  
1006 AM EST SAT DEC 21 2024  
   
SYNOPSIS  
 
COLD AND DRY AIR WILL BUILD IN THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE  
MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE MONDAY AS  
A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS COULD LEAD  
TO CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.  
 
 
   
UPDATE  
 
GOING FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE THIS MORNING. NO CHANGES WERE  
REQUIRED.  
 
 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/  
 
NORTHWEST/CYCLONIC FLOW FIRMLY IN PLACE THIS MORNING AS  
CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG SHORTWAVE IS MOVING OFFSHORE.  
THE COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BATTLE FULL SUNSHINE TODAY BUT WITH A  
RELATIVELY WARM START (TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S)  
HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 50S OR SO. LOWS SUNDAY MORNING SHOULD  
DROP INTO THE MIDDLE 20S WITH A LITTLE WIND IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER  
PRECLUDING IDEAL RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS.  
 
 
   
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/  
 
MID/UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL BE ORIENTED ALONG THE EASTERN  
SEABOARD SUNDAY MORNING. THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL SEE  
A LOW-AMPLITUDE 500 MB TROUGH SHIFT TO THE COAST BY MONDAY  
AFTERNOON AND OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A SHARP GREAT  
LAKES SHORTWAVE. AT THE SURFACE, COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL  
ENVELOP THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEASTERN US SUNDAY AND  
MONDAY BEFORE TRANSITIONING OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT.  
 
TEMPERATURES WILL BE UP TO 15 DEGREES BELOW CLIMATOLOGY  
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE LOWER  
AND MIDDLE 40S SUNDAY, BOTTOMING OUT IN THE LOWER AND MID  
20S SUNDAY NIGHT. DECOUPLED WINDS UNDER CLEAR SKIES SHOULD  
ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING, WITH TYPICAL COLD SPOTS  
DIPPING INTO THE TEENS. TEMPS WILL MODERATE A BIT MONDAY  
AND MONDAY NIGHT AS A COASTAL TROUGH BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE  
OFF THE SC COAST. MOISTURE RETURN GETS UNDERWAY BELOW 700 MB  
MONDAY NIGHT, AND MODEL CONSENSUS IS TRENDING TOWARD  
INCREASING POPS BETWEEN 06Z-12Z TUESDAY, PARTICULARLY OVER  
NE SC.  
 
 
   
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/  
 
THE COASTAL TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHWARD JUST OFF THE SC COAST  
TUESDAY, PASSING CAPE FEAR AS IT MAKES ITS WAY UP THE NC COAST  
WEDNESDAY. AS A MID/UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER THE EAST COAST  
LATE WEEK, A SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE  
NC PIEDMONT AND UPSTATE SC. THIS WILL MAINTAIN SHALLOW NE FLOW  
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODEL AGREEMENT  
IS NOT VERY GOOD WITH THE POTENTIAL ARRIVAL OF GULF MOISTURE  
LATE IN THE WEEK. AT THIS TIME, IT SEEMS MAINTAINING A SMALL  
POP WOULD BE PRUDENT FOR WHAT WOULD LIKELY BE LOW RAINFALL  
TOTALS IF ANY PRECIP MANAGES TO MATERIALIZE.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/  
 
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.  
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO NEXT  
WEEK.  
 
 
   
MARINE  
 
THROUGH TONIGHT: THE NORTHERLY FLOW HAS ENVELOPED THE COASTAL  
WATERS AS EXPECTED THIS MORNING. EXPECT WINDS TO CONTINUE IN A  
RANGE OF 15-20 KNOTS BASICALLY THROUGH TONIGHT PERHAPS LEANING A  
LITTLE HIGHER INSIDE THE RANGE LATE. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE  
2-4 FEET. MATCHING UP WITH THE WINDS A FEW FIVE FOOTERS COULD  
DEVELOP ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.  
 
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: NNE WINDS WILL BE SUSTAINED AROUND 15  
KT SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY BY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER  
THE MID ATLANTIC AND NE US. A COASTAL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO TAKE  
SHAPE ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST MONDAY NIGHT. DEPENDING ON  
EXACTLY WHERE THE TROUGH AXIS SETS UP, WINDS MAY VARY BETWEEN  
NNE AND ENE UNTIL THE ASSOCIATED WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTH  
OF THE AREA WATERS LATE TUESDAY. TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY, NE  
FLOW REESTABLISHES AS A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE MID  
ATLANTIC AND INTO INTERIOR NC AND SC. SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BE  
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COASTAL TROUGH, WITH CHANCES PEAKING ON  
TUESDAY.  
 
 
   
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
NC...NONE.  
SC...NONE.  
MARINE...NONE.  
 
 
 
 
 
SYNOPSIS...CRM  
UPDATE...31  
NEAR TERM...SHK  
SHORT TERM...CRM  
LONG TERM...CRM  
AVIATION...SHK  
MARINE...SHK/CRM  
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