944
FXUS62 KILM 212327
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
627 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2025
SYNOPSIS
A DRY COLD FRONT WILL DIP SOUTH THROUGH THE CAROLINAS
LATER TODAY, BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TUESDAY AS A WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH. DRY
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD DOMINATE THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES RISING WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE
DECEMBER.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
DRY CFP SLATED FOR THIS AFTN WITH ACCOMPANYING CLOUDS CONSISTING
OF FEW/SCT MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND BKN/OVC UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS. THE
CAA SURGE SOMEWHAT DELAYED BUT WILL COMMENCE LATER THIS AFTN OR
EARLY THIS EVENING. ALONG WITH A TIGHTENED SFC PG AS THE CENTER
OF A 1035MB SFC HIGH DROPS SE-WARD, REACHING SOUTHEAST VA AND
EASTERN NC AND SC BY MIDDAY MON AND THEN STRADDLES THIS AREA
GOING INTO MON EVENING. STILL LOOKING AT 60-65 DEGREE RANGE FOR
MAXES THIS AFTN, LIKELY HIER ALONG THE COAST THAN INLAND GIVEN
THE DOWNSLOPE TRAJECTORY. WILL HAVE DECENT CAA TONIGHT AND
ACTIVE WINDS, SO NOT A FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT, BUT
NEVERTHELESS LOOKING AT AT MINS DROPPING TO AROUND 30 ALONG THE
NORTHWEST-NORTH PERIPHERY OF THE ILM CWA TO THE 30-35 DEGREE
RANGE ELSEWHERE. MON MAXES WILL ONLY REACH THE LOW TO MID 50S AT
BEST WHICH IS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW THE NORM AS THE CAA ABATES
TURNS NEUTRAL, WITH WAA POSSIBLE JUST OFF THE DECK AS THE SFC
BASED INVERSION KICKS IN AFTER SUNSET MON.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST AT THE START OF THE PERIOD.
AFTER A FAIRLY SEASONABLE MONDAY NIGHT THE INCREASED SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL BRING A WARM AFTERNOON TUESDAY. THE RESULTING WAA WILL
BE QUITE MOISTURE-LADEN ACCORDING TO THE NBM, TO THE EXTENT
THAT A SKY COVER FORECAST OF MOSTLY CLOUDY IS WARRANTED.
ASSUMING THIS COMES TO VERIFY TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE
MID 60S, BUT IT MAY GROW A TAD WARMER IF THE MOISTENING PROGGED
IS OVERDONE. THE CLOUDS AND RETURN FLOW WILL KEEP TUESDAY NIGHT
LOWS ELEVATED, GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 40. A WEAK COLD FRONT
SLIPS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH RAPIDLY CLEARING SKIES.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THE RETURN OF FULL SUNSHINE WEDNESDAY WILL ALLOW MOST PLACES TO
SEE A HIGH OF 70 DEGREES DESPITE SAID SUNSHINE BEING THE
WEAKEST OF THE YEAR. FROM THERE IT JUST KEEPS ON GETTING WARMER
AS DEEP LAYER RIDGING DEVELOPS AND STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE GULF.
THE WARMING TREND WILL ONLY BE WEAKLY REVERSED BY A RAIN-FREE
FRONT ON SATURDAY WITH A POSSIBLY STRONGER PUSH OF COOLER AIR
(BACK TO CLIMO IF NOT LOWER) THAT IS APPEARING IN SOME
OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE BUT NOT YET THE BLENDS WHICH CONTINUE TO
SHOW ONLY MODEST COOLING.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
EXTENDED FORECAST...VFR.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT...CALM SO TO SPEAK BEFORE SCA WINDS AND SEAS
MATERIALIZE. LIGHT NW OFFSHORE WIND 5 TO 10 KT TO OCCUR THIS
AFTN, POSSIBLY GOING VARIABLE OR EVEN S-SW 5 TO 10 KT NEARSHORE
DUE TO A PINNED SEA BREEZE (TEMPS IN THE MID 60S OVER LAND NEXT
TO LOW 50S SSTS NEARSHORE). ESE-SE 8 TO 10 SECOND PERIOD SWELL
WILL DOMINATE UP UNTIL EARLY THIS EVENING. CFP THIS AFTN
FOLLOWED BY A DELAY IN THE CAA WHILE THE SFC PG SLOWLY TIGHTENS.
AS A RESULT, LOOKING AT N-NE WINDS INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 KT
THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING INTO MON WITH DIRECTIONS SLIGHTLY
VEERING TO NE-ENE AS THE SFC HIGH ELONGATES ACROSS VA TO SC.
THE SFC PG WILL RELAX MON AFTN ALONG WITH CAA BECOMING NEUTRAL.
SPEEDS SHOULD DROP BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS LATER MON AFTN WITH THE 4
TO 7 SECOND PERIOD WIND DRIVEN SEAS FOLLOWING SUIT.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT WHILE A WEAK FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. THIS BOUNDARY DOES NOT PASS THROUGH UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT AT
WHICH TIME VEER FROM SW TO W EXPECTED, CONTINUING ON TO NW AND
THEN NE WEDNESDAY. THERE IS NO BIG PUSH OF COOL AIR/HIGHER
PRESSURE WITH FROPA SO WAVES DO NOT BUILD BUT ALL OF THE VEERING
WILL STEEPEN WAVE FACES SLIGHT. DUAL- CENTERED HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS BY THURSDAY, ONE CENTER OFFSHORE AND ANOTHER JUST W OF
FL TURNING LOCAL WINDS BACK TO SW.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-
256.
SYNOPSIS...MBB
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...SHK
MARINE...DCH/MBB
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