367
FXUS62 KILM 171118
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
618 AM EST WED DEC 17 2025
SYNOPSIS
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE SHARPLY ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE WEEKEND WITH NEAR TO
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
UPDATE
TAF DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR THE 12Z ISSUANCE.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THEIR UPWARD TREND WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S
NEAR THE COAST. REMNANTS OF SHALLOW COLD AIR TO OUR NORTH AND EAST
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 ALONG AND WEST
OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. SUNNY TO START COURTESY OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OFFSHORE. UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE LATE IN THE DAY AS
SOUTHWEST FLOW INTENSIFIES IN THE LEE OF A DEPARTING TROUGH.
DESPITE RETURN FLOW PUSHING DEW POINTS INTO THE UPPER 40S BY SUNSET,
UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER SHOULD PREVENT WIDESPREAD FOG TONIGHT.
WITHOUT INCLUDING THE MENTION OF FOG IN THE LATEST FORECAST DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY AND OVERALL LACK OF COVERAGE, A FEW LOCALIZED POCKETS OF
FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 00Z AND JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. BOUNDARY
LAYER WINDS TURN SOUTHEASTERLY AND INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT, SO ANY
FOG THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD GIVE WAY TO LOW CLOUDS. ONSHORE FLOW COULD
PRODUCE A SHOWER NEAR THE COAST AND SOUTHERN AREAS OF THE GRAND
STRAND. THE BULK OF SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE
THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
INCREASING DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT ON THURSDAY WITH SHORTWAVE
ENERGY RIDING AROUND DEEPENING MID TO UPPER TROUGH WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING CHC OF RAIN. INITIALLY LOOKS LIKE SOME LIGHTER PCP
ASSOCIATED WITH WARM FRONT THURS MORNING WITH LOW CLOUDS AND
LIGHTER PCP BUT CHC OF PCP WILL INCREASE BY THURS EVENING.
DEEPER LAYER MOISTURE WELL AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT WITH
INCREASING ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND BETTER SUPPORT IN THE MID TO
UPPER LEVELS WILL LEAD THE WAY FOR POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVIER
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER LATE THURS. COULD
SEE SOME DECENT QPF INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. TEMPS UP
AROUND 70 THURS AFTN WILL REMAIN IN THE MID 60S WITH DEWPOINTS
REACHING AROUND 60 DEGREES THURS EVE IN GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS.
THURS NIGHT LOWS WILL BE WARMER THAN AVERAGE DAYTIME HIGHS FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.
BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST THROUGH FRI
MORNING WITH SOME LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE BEFORE DEEP LAYER
DRYING TAKES PLACE AS WINDS VEER AROUND BEHIND COLD FRONT
THROUGH FRI AFTN. DEWPOINT TEMPS WILL DROP ABOUT 20 DEGREES BY
FRI EVE WITH CLEARING SKIES. TEMPS UP NEAR 70 FOR HIGHS ON FRI
WILL COOL THROUGH FRI NIGHT IN CAA BEHIND FRONT. WILL SEE TEMPS
BACK NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL HEADING INTO THE FIRST HALF
OF THE WEEKEND.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
SEASONABLY COOL AND DRY AIR WILL BE IN PLACE THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE MIGRATES ACROSS THE CAROLINAS.
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO VEER AROUND AND LIGHTEN AS HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS NEARLY OVERHEAD SAT AFTN. WARMING WILL TAKE
PLACE AS AIRMASS MODIFIES IN LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW SAT
NIGHT INTO SUN. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BETWEEN 35 AND 40 MOST
PLACES SAT NIGHT IN DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING AND WILL RISE
INTO THE MID 60S FOR HIGHS SUN AFTN WITH A BEAUTIFUL DAY IN
STORE.
A MOISTURE STARVED BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN SUN NIGHT
INTO MON WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN BEHIND IT. THIS
WILL LEAD THE WAY TO A WEDGE LIKE PATTERN WITH CLOUDS AND
INCREASING CHC OF LIGHT PCP TUES INTO TUES NIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD
RUN NEAR NORMAL ON TUES.
AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR THROUGH THIS EVENING. SOME LOCALIZED
POCKETS OF FOG ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING PRIOR TO 06Z-08Z,
COVERAGE AND CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF.
INCREASING SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW
CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING.
EXTENDED FORECAST... IFR RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS SHOWERS INCREASE FROM SW TO NE ACROSS
THE REGION. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY EVENING.
VFR RETURNS ON FRIDAY AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT... HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT WINDS
TODAY. AS THE HIGH MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE TONIGHT, WINDS TURN
SOUTHEASTERLY AND INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT. SEAS
AROUND 2 FEET TODAY WILL INCREASE TO 2-3 FEET LATE TONIGHT.
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... INCREASING SE TO S RETURN FLOW WILL
DEVELOP AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE
OFFSHORE AND APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS WILL LEAD TO SCA
CONDITIONS LATE THURS INTO FRI AS SEAS BUILD TO 5 TO 8 FT IN
SOUTHERLY FLOW UP TO 25 KTS. WINDS WILL VEER THROUGH FRI AS COLD
FRONT MAKES ITS WAY THROUGH. BY FRI NIGHT, NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
DIMINISH TO 10 TO 15 KTS AND THIS WILL ALLOW SEAS TO DROP TO 4
TO 6 FT. BY SAT, HIGH PRESSURE WILL MIGRATE OVERHEAD FURTHER
WEAKENING THE WINDS AND ALLOWING SEAS TO DROP TO 2 TO 4 FT. SEAS
WILL REMAIN 3 FT OR LESS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND AS WINDS
VEER AROUND TO THE SOUTH THROUGH SUNDAY.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...21
NEAR TERM...21
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...21
MARINE...RGZ/21
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