977
FXUS62 KILM 140659
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
259 AM EDT SAT MAR 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY FOR INLAND LOCATIONS AND
COASTAL LOCATIONS ON SUNDAY NIGHT. SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES
INCREASE ON MONDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA. SPC HAS MAINTAINED A 30% CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER WITHIN
25 MILES OF A POINT FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG WINDS ON MONDAY
MAY BRING IMPACTS OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION. THE CHANCE FOR
FREEZING TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING
HAS INCREASED
KEY MESSAGES
1) A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING IMPACTS DUE TO STRONG WINDS
AND SEVERE WEATHER ON MONDAY. A FEW STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF
THE FRONT ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS WELL.
2) FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWING
THE COLD FRONT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1... A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING IMPACTS DUE TO
STRONG WINDS AND SEVERE WEATHER ON MONDAY. A FEW STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS WELL.
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. SHOWERS INDUCED BY ISENTROPIC LIFT DURING THE AFTERNOON
WILL HAVE LIMITED INSTABILITY, BUT SHEAR WILL BE INCREASING
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES ARE
LOW AND THIS CONDITIONAL THREAT IS MORE LIKELY FOR AREAS WEST OF
I-95. ONCE THE FRONT MOVES WELL NORTH OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY
NIGHT, ELEVATED INSTABILITY MAY PRODUCE SOME STRONGER STORMS
NEAR THE COAST AS THE LOW LEVEL JET AMPLIFIES.
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL PEAKS ON MONDAY AS A DEEP MIDLEVEL
TROUGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.
THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE A FOCUSED AREA OF FORCED
ASCENT IN A WARM ADVECTIVE REGIME WITH STRONG WINDS THROUGHOUT
THE COLUMN. INSTABILITY WILL BE MARGINAL (AS IS TYPICAL FOR
EARLY SPRING SEVERE WEATHER EVENTS), BUT EFFECTIVE SHEAR AROUND
40-50 KNOTS COULD PRODUCE SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THE
ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT FAVORS THE EARLY AFTERNOON, DURING
PEAK HEATING. ALTHOUGH CIRRUS WILL LIMIT SOME WARMING, THIS
WOULD GENERATE MAXIMUM INSTABILITY; THE ENSEMBLE MEAN HAS
INCREASED SLIDE TO AROUND 600 J/KG. WINDS BELOW 700 MB WILL
APPROACH 60 KNOTS AND THE TOP OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER COULD HAVE
WINDS AS STRONG AS 50 KNOTS. THIS SUGGESTS THAT DAMAGING
WINDS COULD EASILY REACH THE SURFACE IN SHALLOW CONVECTION.
WITH THE LATEST SUITE OF DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE, NEARLY ALL
MAJOR GLOBAL MODELS HAVE 50 KNOT WIND GUSTS NEAR THE TOP OF THE
BOUNDARY LAYER, SO WINDS OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION COULD REACH 45-50
MPH. THIS COULD LEAD TO DOWNED TREES AND POWER OUTAGES BEFORE
THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES. SPC MAINTAINS A 30% CHANCE OF SEVERE
WEATHER FOR MONDAY AND THERE WAS SOME DISCUSSION TO INCLUDE
PART OF THE AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SUNDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2... FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY
NIGHT FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT.
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN US
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY. AS THE CENTER OF HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVERHEAD LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT, WINDS
WILL BECOME CALM AND DRY AIR WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RADIATE
WELL. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE FREEZING MARK FOR A LARGE
PORTION OF THE AREA AND A FREEZE WATCH MAY BE NEEDED IN THE
COMING DAYS.
LREF PROBABILITIES INDICATE THAT INLAND LOCATIONS HAVE A
GREATER THAN 80% CHANCE OF FALLING BELOW FREEZING FOR AREAS
ALONG AND WEST OF I-95. CHANCES DECREASE LINEARLY TOWARD THE
COAST WITH A 30% CHANCE JUST INLAND FROM THE BEACHES (INCLUDING
WILMINGTON AND WEST OF US-17 IN SC). CHANCES FOR A HARD FREEZE
ARE LESS THAN 15% FOR AREAS WEST OF I-95, NEARLY 0% CLOSER TO
THE COAST. IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT THESE COARSE GLOBAL
ENSEMBLES CANNOT CAPTURE SMALL SCALE RADIATIVE CHARACTERISTICS,
SO PROBABILITIES WILL LIKELY INCREASE AS MESOSCALE MODELS COME
INTO RANGE. AGRICULTURAL INTERESTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE FORECAST.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
PREDOMINANTLY VFR THROUGH THE 06Z TAF 24 HR ISSUANCE PERIOD.
FOG CHANCES EARLY THIS MORNING ARE ON THE LOW SIDE FOR THE
INDIVIDUAL TERMINALS, HOWEVER PATCHY FOG REMAINS POSSIBLE IN A
CORRIDOR RUNNING FROM WILLIAMSBURG COUNTY TO SOUTHERN BLADEN
COUNTY. IF THIS AREA EXPANDS, IT MAY OVERLAP THE INLAND TERMINAL
SITES...WILL KEEP MONITORING. OTHERWISE, LOOKING AT PERIODIC
CIRRUS MOVING OVERHEAD THIS PERIOD. SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS
SOUTHWARD AND BACKDOORS THE AREA FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THRU
TONIGHT, THEN STALLS BETWEEN CHARLESTON AND SAVANNAH BY DAYBREAK
SUN. THIS WILL HAVE A BEARING ON THE WIND DIRECTIONS AND ARE
NOTED IN THE INDIVIDUAL TAF SITES. OVERALL, WINDS WILL VEER FROM
THE SSW-SW 3 TO 7 KT EARLY THIS MORNING TO THE NE-E 4 TO 8 KT
TONIGHT. THE COASTAL TERMINALS WILL EXPERIENCE A SEA BREEZE, SE-
SSE WINDS AOB 10 KT THIS AFTERNOON.
EXTENDED FORECAST...VFR EXPECTED MOST OF SATURDAY NIGHT. FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS BECOME MORE LIKELY BY SUN, DUE TO INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES AND ASSOCIATED THEIR CLOUD DECKS. THESE RESTRICTIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME EVEN WORSE MON, AS A STRONG COLD FRONT
SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA, POTENTIALLY BRINGING SEVERE WEATHER.
VFR SHOULD RETURN LATE MONDAY NIGHT, REMAINING THAT WAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT... MAIN STORY WILL BE THE LIGHT WINDS,
GENERALLY AOB 10 KT THRU THE PERIOD, EXCEPT POSSIBLY AND
BRIEFLY 10-15 KT AFTER THE CFP THAT DROPS SOUTHWARD LATER TODAY
THRU TONIGHT. IE. BACKDOORING THE AREA WATERS BEFORE STALLING
BETWEEN CHARLESTON AND SAVANNAH BY SUN MORNING. LOOKING AT A
VEERING WIND TREND DURING THIS PERIOD, STARTING OUT SSW-SW AND
ENDING UP NE-ENE LATER TONIGHT. COULD SEE A SEA BREEZE AFFECTING
THE NEARSHORE WATERS THIS AFTN AND EARLY EVENING, IE. ESE-SE
AROUND 10 KT. SEAS THIS PERIOD WILL BE IN A SUBSIDING TENDENCY
WITH AN E-SE 6 TO 8 SECOND PERIOD FRESH/PSEUDO SWELL DOMINATING.
SEA BREEZE NEARSHORE, WITHIN 5 NM OF THE COAST, WILL RESULT IN
CHOPPY CONDITIONS ON TOP OF THIS SWELL.
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT... HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS ON
SUNDAY WHILE AN AREA OF STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN OVER THE
CENTRAL US INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
INCREASE LATE IN THE DAY AS THE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH
APPROACH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.
WARM ADVECTIVE FLOW OVER THE RELATIVELY COOLER WATERS WILL LEAD
TO A GRADUAL INCREASE IN WINDS ON SUNDAY NIGHT. GUSTS WILL
REACH 25-30 KNOTS BY SUNRISE MONDAY AND SEAS IN EXCESS OF 6 FEET
ARE LIKELY TO BE OCCURRING AT THAT TIME. INCREASING DEW POINTS
IN SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY PRODUCE SOME PATCHY DENSE
SEA FOG. THE PRIMARY COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON
MONDAY. SCA CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO BE OCCURRING FOR MOST OF
DAY ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT, SOME GUSTS TO GALE FORCE ARE
POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME. PROBABILITIES SUPPORT THE CHANCE FOR
PROLONGED WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 34 KNOTS (GREATER THAN 2
HOURS) AT AROUND 20%-30%. SEAS PEAK AT 7-9 FEET LATE MONDAY.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS COMPRESSED ON MONDAY NIGHT AS
WINDS TURN NORTHERLY. COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
SHOULD KEEP WINDS AND SEAS ELEVATED INTO EARLY TUESDAY.
TRANSIENT HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD AND JUST OFFSHORE ON
TUESDAY EVENING. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL BECOME NORTHEASTERLY AND
SHOULD MAINTAIN SOME BREEZINESS INTO WEDNESDAY.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...DCH/21
KEY MESSAGES...21
DISCUSSION...21
AVIATION...DCH
MARINE...DCH/21
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