829
FXUS62 KILM 141108
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
608 AM EST SAT FEB 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
12Z TAF DISCUSSION UPDATED. REMOVED KEY MESSAGE FOR PATCHY
FREEZING FOG POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) BENEFICIAL RAINFALL ON SUNDAY LINGERS INTO MONDAY. HOWEVER,
CONFIDENCE IN RAINFALL AMOUNTS REMAINS LOW.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...BENEFICIAL RAINFALL ON SUNDAY LINGERS INTO
MONDAY. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IN RAINFALL AMOUNTS REMAINS LOW.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM CROSSING THE DEEP SOUTH
THIS WEEKEND IN THE FORM OF A STACKED LOW. SHORTWAVE RIDGE AT 5H
AHEAD OF THE LOW LIMITS MOISTURE RETURN UNTIL THE SYSTEM IS ON THE
DOORSTEP. AT THAT POINT DEEP MOISTURE SURGES WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
JUMPING FROM 60-80% OF NORMAL SAT EVENING TO ALMOST 200% OF NORMAL
IN JUST 12 HOURS. DESPITE THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE STILL HAVE CONCERNS
ABOUT FORCING/DYNAMICS. THE STACKED LOW PASSING SOUTH OF THE LOCAL
AREA IS LESS THAN IDEAL, LIMITING INSTABILITY AND DYNAMICS. ALL OF
THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW HEALTHY CONVECTION ALONG THE EASTERN
GULF COAST, EXTENDING OFFSHORE. STUDIES FROM THE EARLY 2000S
SUGGESTED THAT A COMBINATION OF MOISTURE CONSUMPTION AND INCREASED
STABILITY DUE TO CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING ARE 2 OF THE FACTORS THAT
CONTRIBUTE TO RAINFALL BEING OVER FORECAST. ALTHOUGH THE STUDY IS
OVER 20 YEARS OLD, THIS CONTINUES TO BE SOMETHING THIS FORECASTER
HAS SEEN THE GUIDANCE STRUGGLE WITH TIME AND TIME AGAIN OVER THE
YEARS.
THE TREND HAS BEEN A REDUCTION IN THE TOTAL QPF AND OVERALL THAT
TREND IS CONTINUING WITH THE 00Z GUIDANCE. EVEN WITHIN THE ENSEMBLE
SUITS THE TREND HAS BEEN DECREASING PROBABILITIES OF 1" IN THE
EC/GFS AND THEIR AI COUNTERPARTS. ONLY THE CMC HOLDS ONTO ROUGHLY
50% PROBABILITY OF 1". FOR 0.50" THE STORY IS THE QUITE DIFFERENT
WITH ALMOST ALL AGREEING ON 80% OR GREATER PROBABILITY OF HALF AN
INCH. SO DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF EXCESSIVE MOISTURE, PRECIPITABLE
WATER PEAKS AT OVER 250% OF NORMAL, THE WEAK FORCING AND
AFOREMENTIONED ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS SUGGESTS QPF ON THE ORDER OF
0.50-0.75". AS THERE WILL BE SOME EMBEDDED CONVECTION, ESPECIALLY
LATER SUN, LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE, BUT AREAS
APPROACHING 1" ARE LIKELY TO BE THE EXCEPTION AND NOT THE RULE.
HOWEVER, THE PROLONGED NATURE OF THE EVENT WILL CERTAINLY BE
BENEFICIAL AS FAR AS THE DROUGHT GOES.
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR. CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING WITH HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM
THE WEST LATER TODAY. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT THROUGHOUT TAF PERIOD
WITH HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVERHEAD MOVING OFFSHORE THIS
EVENING.
EXTENDED FORECAST...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS LIKELY MIDDAY SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTS THE AREA. VFR
RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD THIS MORNING SHIFTS OFFSHORE, WITH LIGHT
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS OVER THE WATERS EARLY TODAY SHIFTING TO
SOUTHEASTERLY THIS EVENING. SEAS 1-2 FT, PRIMARILY AS A NE
SWELL.
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
GRADIENT STARTS TO TIGHTEN UP SUN AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SPEEDS MAY
TOUCH 20 KT, BUT THE PROLONGED PERIOD OF SOUTHERLY FETCH WILL
BUILD SEAS OVER 6 FT LATE SUN. WINDS VEER TO NORTHWEST SUN NIGHT
INTO MON AS THE LOW PASSES TO THE SOUTH. SECONDARY LOW KEEPS
THE GRADIENT TIGHT INTO MIDDAY MON, HOLDING NORTHEAST FLOW
AROUND 20 KT AND SEAS OVER 6 FT INTO MON AFTERNOON BEFORE WINDS
AND SEAS START TO DECREASE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST TUE THEN SHIFTS OFFSHORE WED WITH RETURN FLOW SETTING UP.
SPEEDS UNDER 10 KT TUE WITH THE GRADIENT ON THE WEAK SIDE.
GRADIENT BECOMES A LITTLE MORE DEFINED MID-WEEK WHEN THE HIGH
SLIPS OFFSHORE, BUT NBM WINDS ARE TOO HIGH (KNOWN BIAS IN WARM
ADVECTION/SOUTHERLY FLOW) AND THE OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS OF A
SOLID 15 KT ARE MUCH MORE REALISTIC VS THE 20-25 KT OFFERED BY
THE NBM.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...ILM
KEY MESSAGES...III
DISCUSSION...III
AVIATION...VAO
MARINE...III/VAO
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