126
FXUS62 KILM 230625
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
225 AM EDT MON MAR 23 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY HAVE BEEN INCREASED BY 1-2
DEGREES. UPDATED 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
KEY MESSAGES
1) WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY,
APPROACHING NEAR RECORD VALUES AGAIN AT FLORENCE.
2) A COLD FRONT ARRIVING LATE THIS AFTERNOON MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
3) BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL SEE SIGNIFICANT WARMING
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT INTO FRIDAY. FRIDAY'S HIGHS COULD REACH NEAR
RECORDS, PARTICULARLY FOR OUR INLAND AREAS, BUT OTHERWISE NO
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED AGAIN
TODAY, APPROACHING NEAR RECORD VALUES AT FLORENCE.
AFTER A COUPLE DAYS OF WARM SOUTHWEST WINDS, DIRECTIONS WILL VEER
MORE WESTERLY IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHWARD FROM THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION. WE'LL GET THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY'S HEATING
BEFORE ANY AIRMASS CHANGE BEHIND THE FRONT REACHES THIS FAR SOUTH
AND I'VE BOOSTED FORECAST HIGHS BY SEVERAL DEGREES. THE ECMWF MOS
HAS VERIFIED BEST OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS IN THIS AIRMASS AND
I'VE ALIGNED OUR FORECAST CLOSELY WITH ITS OUTPUT.
TODAY'S RECORD HIGHS...
WILMINGTON NC..........94 IN 1907
LUMBERTON NC...........91 IN 1907
N MYRTLE BEACH SC......85 IN 2011
FLORENCE SC............88 IN 1995 (FORECAST HIGH OF 87 IS 1 DEG
AWAY)
KEY MESSAGE 2: A COLD FRONT ARRIVING LATE THIS AFTERNOON MAY BE
ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN DURING TODAY'S HEATING PLACING
THE LCL SOMEWHERE BETWEEN 4500-5500 FEET AGL. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ALOFT OF 6.0 TO 6.5C/KM SHOULD ALLOW FOR AROUND 1000 J/KG OF CAPE TO
DEVELOP DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE COLD FRONT
ARRIVES FROM THE NORTH. THERE WILL BE SOME ENHANCEMENT OF LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE BETWEEN THE FRONT AND THIS AFTERNOON'S SEABREEZE FRONT,
AND THIS COULD HELP DEVELOP SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY AFTER 4 PM.
AFTER COLLABORATION WITH SPC EARLIER THIS MORNING, THE MARGINAL RISK
OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN REMOVED FROM TODAY'S OUTLOOK. THE
00Z HREF SHOWS LESS COVERAGE OF CONVECTION THAN WAS DEPICTED 24 AND
48 HOURS AGO, REDUCING OUR CONFIDENCE THAT ENOUGH OF A COLD POOL
COULD DEVELOP IN CONVECTION TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. BULK
SHEAR ACROSS THE 0-6 KM LAYER IS STILL FORECAST TO REACH 35 KNOTS
THIS AFTERNOON IMPLYING MULTICELLS WILL BE THE DOMINANT CONVECTIVE
MODE, BUT MEAGER COVERAGE MAY LIMIT THE ABILITY FOR STORMS TO MERGE
THEIR OUTFLOWS EFFECTIVELY. THE STORM THREAT SHOULD END BY 8 PM AS
THE FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE.
KEY MESSAGE 3
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL SEE
SIGNIFICANT WARMING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT INTO FRIDAY. FRIDAY'S
HIGHS COULD REACH NEAR RECORDS, PARTICULARLY FOR OUR INLAND
AREAS, BUT OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS EXPECTED.
COLDER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING BY ~15 DEGREES FOR TUESDAY COMPARED TO MONDAY.
COLDEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE
LOWER 40S. LITTLE TO NO RADIATIONAL COOLING IS EXPECTED DUE TO
CLOUD COVER AND INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS THE HIGH SHIFTS
OFFSHORE INTO WEDNESDAY, PUTTING US IN ITS' RETURN FLOW WITH
MODERATING TEMPERATURES. SW FLOW WILL THEN BE FURTHER ENHANCED BY AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT INTO FRIDAY, HIGHS ONCE AGAIN IN THE 80S. FOR
NOW, THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH TOWARDS THE END OF THE
DAY AFTER PEAK HEATING, MEANING LITTLE TO NO IMPACTS FROM
RAIN/CLOUDS TO INHIBIT WARMING. SHOULD THIS PATTERN HOLD, THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY SHOULD INCREASE, AND HIGHS COULD
START TO NEAR RECORDS. THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS HIGHS IN THE LOWER
TO MID 80S, ~2-5 DEGREES OFF RECORDS AT ALL SITES.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS, ALONG WITH BREEZY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS, WILL
CONTINUE UP THROUGH AROUND 20Z THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT
ADVANCING SOUTHWARD WILL REACH THE AREA AFTER 20Z, POSSIBLY
ACCOMPANIED BY A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST
CHANCE OF IMPACTS AT AIRPORTS SHOULD BE NEAR THE COAST WHERE PROB30
GROUPS AT KILM, KCRE, AND KMYR SHOW MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN
CONVECTION THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY. WIND DIRECTIONS SHOULD TURN
NORTHERLY BEHIND THE FRONT THIS EVENING WITH GOOD LIKELIHOOD OF VFR
CONDITIONS BENEATH MID LEVEL CLOUDS.
EXTENDED FORECAST...THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF GROUND FOG THURSDAY
MORNING, OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT...MODERATE SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE UP UNTIL A
COLD FRONT ARRIVES AT THE COAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD ACCOMPANY THE FRONT WITH GUSTY WINDS
POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGEST STORMS. BEHIND THE FRONT WINDS SHOULD
SHIFT NORTH, THEN NORTHEASTERLY TONIGHT WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO
NEAR 25 KNOTS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS ALREADY IN EFFECT FOR THESE
WINDS WHICH COULD GUST UP TO 30 KNOTS OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH SEAS
BUILDING TO 5-6 FEET.
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...STRONG NE WINDS WITH WAVES 4-6 FT WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF TUESDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVERHEAD LATE, BRINGING IMPROVING CONDITIONS. LIGHT WINDS WILL
BECOME SW ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT, WITH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY DUE TO
STRONG SW WINDS AND SEAS +6 FT.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM EDT
WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-256.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...ILM
KEY MESSAGES...TRA/LEW
DISCUSSION...TRA/LEW
AVIATION...TRA
MARINE...TRA/LEW
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