279
FXUS62 KILM 262334
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
734 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AS OF 730PM... UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 00Z TAFS.
AS OF 530PM... UPDATED NEAR-TERM TEMPS, DEW POINTS, WINDS, SKY
COVER, AND POPS TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT OBS AND EXPECTED
TRENDS.
AS OF 220PM... RECENT MODELS SHOW GREATER INFLUX OF MOISTURE ON
WEDNESDAY, LEADING TO INCREASED FORECAST RAIN CHANCES AND
INCREASED QPF.
KEY MESSAGES
KEY MESSAGE 1...THE NEXT COLD FRONT ARRIVING WEDNESDAY NIGHT
APPEARS LIKELY TO BRING SOME MEASURABLE RAINFALL TO MOST PORTIONS
OF THE EASTERN CAROLINAS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: THE NEXT COLD FRONT ARRIVING WEDNESDAY NIGHT
APPEARS LIKELY TO BRING SOME MEASURABLE RAINFALL TO MOST PORTIONS
OF THE EASTERN CAROLINAS.
WE SHOULD GET GET A COUPLE OF DRY DAYS (MONDAY AND TUESDAY)
BETWEEN TODAY'S RAIN-MAKER AND THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WHICH
LOOKS TO ARRIVE LATE WEDNESDAY. CONFIDENCE IN MEASURABLE
RAINFALL IS GROWING AND OUR LATEST FORECAST POPS JUST AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WEDNESDAY RANGE FROM 60-80 PERCENT ACROSS THE AREA.
FORCING FOR WEDNESDAY'S RAIN EVENT DOESN'T LOOK TOO BAD. A
MODEST 500 MB SHORTWAVE SHOULD PASS ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
DAY WEDNESDAY. WHILE THAT IN ITSELF IS NOT TOO IMPRESSIVE,
THE 300 MB PATTERN FEATURES SUBSTANTIAL VISUAL DIFFLUENCE AND
CALCULATED MASS DIVERGENCE WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT SUSTAINED
SYNOPTIC LIFT BENEATH. CO-LOCATED WITH THIS UPPER SUPPORT WILL BE
A STREAM OF WEST GULF MOISTURE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER RANGING
FROM 1.6 TO 1.8 INCHES, ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE VALUES FOR THE
DATE. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT AN AREA OF RAIN, POSSIBLY WITH SOME
EMBEDDED CONVECTION, CROSSING THE AREA. LATEST MODEL BLEND QPF
IS 0.2 TO 0.4 INCHES.
THERE IS STILL SPREAD IN TIMING OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT'S
ARRIVAL RANGING FROM 06Z THU ON THE 00Z RUNS OF THE ECMWF AND
CANADIAN, TO AS LATE AS 12-18Z THU ON THE 06Z AND 12Z RUNS OF
THE GFS. THE MEAN ENSEMBLE SOLUTION (BASED ON LAST NIGHT'S 00Z/06Z
MODELS) SHOWS THE FRONT MARCHING ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN
MIDNIGHT AND 5 AM THURSDAY WITH MOST OF THE WEATHER WELL OUT
AHEAD OF IT. WHILE OUR FORECAST HAS FEATURES A LONG PERIOD OF
RAIN CHANCES, IT'S LIKELY THE RAIN WILL BE FAIRLY SHORT DURATION
TIED TO THE PASSAGE OF THE GOOD DYNAMICS.
DRY AND COOLER WEATHER SHOULD BUILD IN AGAIN FOR THURSDAY AS THE
FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
MVFR STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AS COOLER
AND DRIER AIR SPREADS SOUTHWARD TO SOUTHWESTWARD. ALTHOUGH KFLO
IS CLEAR AT THE MOMENT, MVFR STRATUS IS EXPECTED RETURN BETWEEN
03-05Z AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. STEADY NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AS WELL, WITH SOME GUSTINESS AT
TIMES. THE STRATUS IS LIKELY TO DISSIPATE FROM WEST TO EAST
DURING THE LATE MORNING TO MIDDAY TIMEFRAME, LEAVING VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. WITH FORECAST MAX
TEMPERATURES RIGHT AROUND THE CURRENT OCEAN WATER TEMPERATURES,
A NOTABLE SEA BREEZE IS NOT EXPECTED, BUT SOME VEERING OF THE
WINDS TO EASTERLY IS FORECAST AT THE GRAND STRAND TERMINALS BY
LATE AFTERNOON.
EXTENDED FORECAST...PREDOMINANTLY VFR THROUGH TUESDAY. INCREASING
RAIN AND STORM CHANCES DUE TO ANOTHER COLD FRONT COULD BRING
MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
MARINE
THROUGH MONDAY...A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING
IN BEHIND IT WILL LEAD TO UNFAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS. NE WINDS
GUSTING NEAR 25 KTS WITH SEAS UP TO 6 FT WILL KEEP A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY MONDAY. THE
OFFSHORE WATERS COULD SEE GUSTS NEAR 30 KTS ~60 NM OUT, WITH WAVES 7-
9 FT.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...A NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDING FROM NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE CAROLINAS ON MONDAY NIGHT
WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AND SHIFT OFFSHORE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS
SHOULD LEAD TO A 36-HOUR PERIOD OF DIMINISHING WINDS AND SUBSIDING
SEAS. LOW PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY INTO
CANADA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT EASTWARD AND
THROUGH THE EASTERN CAROLINAS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. INCREASING
SOUTHWEST WINDS AND GOOD CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND MAYBE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WINDS SHOULD
SHIFT NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY ALONG WITH DRYING WEATHER AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVERHEAD.
CLIMATE
THIS WAS THE FIRST WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EVENT ACROSS THE AREA IN
19 DAYS. RAINFALL DEFICITS JUST THIS MONTH WERE 1.5 TO 2.2 INCHES,
AND OVER THE PAST THREE MONTHS ARE 4 TO 6 INCHES. THIS RAIN EVENT,
WHILE WELCOME, DID NOT APPRECIABLY IMPROVE THE DROUGHT. ALSO OF
NOTE, COASTAL BRUNSWICK COUNTY PLUS THE MAJORITY OF HORRY AND
GEORGETOWN COUNTIES ALONG THE SC COAST PICKED UP LITTLE, IF ANY,
RAIN.
PRELIMINARY RAINFALL TOTALS FROM YESTERDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
2 PM TODAY:
PENDER COUNTY:
CURRIE-3 MILES EAST 0.75"
HOLLY SHELTER GAMELAND-BACK ISLAND 0.61"
BURGAW-1 MILE NE 0.51"
HAMPSTEAD-4 MILES NW 0.56"
NEW HANOVER COUNTY:
CASTLE HAYNE-NCSU ECONET 0.54"
WILMINGTON AIRPORT ASOS 0.43"
WILMINGTON-KINGS GRANT 0.41"
WILMINGTON-NEAR MAYFAIRE 0.41"
WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH 0.29"
CAROLINA BEACH 0.69"
BRUNSWICK COUNTY:
LELAND-WILLOW WOODS 0.37"
SUNNY POINT MILITARY TERMINAL 0.51"
SOUTHPORT 0.06"
BALD HEAD ISLAND-NCSU ECONET 0.03"
OCEAN ISLE BEACH-3 MILES NW 0.02"
COLUMBUS COUNTY:
CHADBOURN-2 MILES SOUTH 0.79"
WHITEVILLE-NCSU ECONET 0.68"
TABOR CITY-3 MILES NE 0.25"
BUG HILL-2.5 MILES SE 0.17"
BLADEN COUNTY:
DUBLIN-4 MILES NE 0.80"
BLADEN LAKES STATE PARK 0.65"
BLADENBORO 0.84"
ROBESON COUNTY:
ROWLAND 0.78"
LUMBERTON 7 MILES NE 1.00"
LUMBERTON AIRPORT ASOS 0.85"
LUMBERTON RAWS STATION 1.00"
HORRY COUNTY:
GREEN SEA-3 MILES NORTH 0.03"
CONWAY-COASTAL CAROLINA UNIV 0.03"
NORTH MYRTLE BEACH AIRPORT ASOS TRACE
GEORGETOWN COUNTY:
GEORGETOWN AIRPORT-1 MILE NE 0.08"
GEORGETOWN-TIDELANDS HOSPITAL 0.04"
DILLON COUNTY:
DILLON 1.30"
MARION COUNTY:
MARION-3 MILES S 0.01"
FLORENCE COUNTY:
WEST FLORENCE 0.19"
FLORENCE AIRPORT ASOS 0.31"
MARS BLUFF 0.12"
EFFINGHAM-7 MILES SW 0.28"
SCRANTON-2 MILES W 0.41"
DARLINGTON COUNTY:
CLYDE-3 MILES W 0.39"
NORTH HARTSVILLE-2 MILES N 0.40"
MARLBORO COUNTY:
BENNETTSVILLE-2 MILES SE 0.30"
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 6 AM EDT MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING FOR NCZ106-108.
SC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 6 AM EDT MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING FOR SCZ054-056.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ250.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ252-254-256.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...TRA/ABW
KEY MESSAGES...TRA
DISCUSSION...TRA
AVIATION...ABW
MARINE...TRA/LEW
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