889
FXUS62 KILM 201056
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
656 AM EDT MON APR 20 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR THE 06Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER IN PLACE FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK
DUE TO VERY DRY CONDITIONS AND ONGOING DROUGHT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER IN PLACE FOR MOST OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK DUE TO VERY DRY CONDITIONS AND ONGOING DROUGHT.
DRY FUELS DUE TO ONGOING SEVERE DROUGHT ALONG WITH A DRY AIR
MASS IN PLACE FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. AFTERNOON
MINIMUM RH VALUES ARE FORECASTED BELOW 30%, AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE COAST, EACH DAY THIS WEEK. WIND SPEEDS WILL VARY
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. TODAY AND WEDNESDAY ARE FORECASTED TO BE
THE WINDIEST DAYS, WITH GUSTS AROUND 15-20 MPH THIS AFTERNOON
AND POTENTIALLY 20-25 MPH GUSTS DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. FIRE
DANGER STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT FOR VIRTUALLY ALL OF NORTH
CAROLINA TODAY, AND BURN BANS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR BOTH NORTH
AND SOUTH CAROLINA UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.
AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
PREVAILING VFR. LIGHT WINDS FOR A FEW MORE HOURS WILL TURN
NORTHWESTERLY DURING THE DAY AROUND 5-10 KTS AS A DRY COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA, WITH INFREQUENT GUSTS OF 15-20 KTS.
WINDS BECOME LIGHT NORTHEASTERLIES TONIGHT AS A SECOND HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGES DOWN FROM THE NORTH.
EXTENDED FORECAST...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT...WEAKENING NORTHEAST WINDS THIS MORNING WILL
BRIEFLY TURN SOUTHWESTERLY LATER TODAY BEFORE A DRY COLD FRONT MOVES
OFFSHORE. WINDS VEER TO NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY TONIGHT BEHIND THE
FRONT, SLOWLY INCREASING TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS BY DAWN
TUESDAY. SEAS WILL BE IMPROVING THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS THE NNE WIND
WAVE WEAKENS. IN THE COASTAL WATERS (OUT TO 20NM) SEAS LINGER AROUND
2-3 FT TODAY INTO TONIGHT. FOR THE WATERS FROM 20NM TO 60NM, SEAS 4-
6 FT THIS MORNING LOWER TO 3-4 FT BY THIS EVENING, PRIMARILY AS A
ENE SWELL.
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SHIFTING
OFFSHORE ALLOWING SOUTHERLY WINDS TO RETURN TUE NIGHT. SHOULD SEE
WINDS PICK UP WED/WED NIGHT DUE TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
FROM AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT BUT SHOULD MAINLY STAY BELOW 25 KT,
ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE COOLER WATER. WITH SIGNIFICANT WAVES STAYING
ABOUT 4 FT OR LESS AS WELL WE DON'T ANTICIPATE ANY APPRECIABLE
THREAT FOR WIND/SEA HEADLINES EVEN IN THE OFFSHORE 20-60 NM ZONES.
AFTER WINDS SUBSIDE A BIT THU INTO EARLY FRI THEY SHOULD PICK BACK
UP LATER FRI/FRI NIGHT AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH BUT
ONCE AGAIN STAY BELOW SCA CRITERIA.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...ILM
KEY MESSAGES...VAO
DISCUSSION...VAO
AVIATION...VAO
MARINE...RJB/VAO
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