530
FXUS62 KILM 272329
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
729 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
FORECASTS WERE UPDATED A COUPLE HOURS AGO TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION AND HEAVY RAIN FALLING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF BLADEN AND ROBESON COUNTIES. LATEST HRRR CONFIRMS
EARLIER HREF ENSEMBLE IDEAS OF NEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT
ALONG THE SC COAST AND SPREADING UP INTO THE COASTAL CAPE
FEAR AREA LATE TONIGHT.
KEY MESSAGES
1) UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND SOME HEAVY RAINFALL AT
TIMES.
2) HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL RETURN DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND SOME HEAVY
RAINFALL AT TIMES.
A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. WILL PERSIST
THROUGH SUNDAY WITH A HIGH PWAT ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE. THIS WILL
LEAD TO A FEW ROUNDS OF MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. AN INCREASINGLY DIFFUSE
FRONT WILL DRIFT INTO THE AREA AS WELL, AND H3 RRQ WOULD AID
CONVECTION. THE HIGH PWATS SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL AT TIMES, AND THE AREA IS HIGHLIGHTED IN A SLIGHT ERO
FRIDAY. PROBABILISTIC PRECIPITATION PLOTS SHOW A POTENTIAL HIGH
END RANGE OF 2 TO 6+ INCHES ACROSS NORTHEAST SC AND SOUTHEAST NC
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. A FLOOD WATCH MAY NEED TO BE CONSIDERED
BUT AT THIS TIME THE THE MORE EXTREME AMOUNTS ARE VERY
LOCALIZED.
KEY MESSAGE 2...HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL RETURN DURING THE
UPCOMING WEEK.
HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL RETURN NEXT WEEK AS THE MID/UPPER RIDGE
BECOMES ESTABLISHED EAST OF THE MS VALLEY. THE FORECAST AREA MAY
OBSERVE HIGHS IN THE MID TO POSSIBLY UPPER 90S BY TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE HEAT, COUPLED WITH THE HIGHER HUMIDITY,
MAY PROMPT ANOTHER ROUND OF AREA-WIDE HEAT ADVISORIES.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AN INTENSE CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN KLBT AND KFAY COULD
SAG SOUTH BRINGING SHORT-LIVED MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO KLBT
BEFORE ACTIVITY DISSIPATES AROUND 02Z. CONVECTION IN THE KFLO
VICINITY SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 01Z WITH A LESSER CHANCE FOR DIRECT
IMPACTS ON THE FLORENCE AIRPORT.
ALONG THE COAST, PATCHES OF LOW STRATOCUMULUS WITH BASES
1500-2500 FEET AGL HAVE A LOW POTENTIAL TO BRING MVFR CEILINGS
THIS EVENING. MODELS SHOW SOME POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS CURRENTLY
IN THE KCHS AREA TO MOVE NE AND AFFECT THE MYRTLE BEACH AIRPORTS
AFTER 02Z, PERHAPS EVEN THE KILM AIRPORT AFTER 04Z.
THERE IS A MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR IFR CEILINGS TO DEVELOP AROUND
SUNRISE FRIDAY AT BOTH KLBT AND KFLO. THESE CEILINGS WILL ONLY
SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS, BECOMING VFR BY MID
AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN
DURING THE HEAT OF THE DAY.
EXTENDED FORECAST...THERE IS MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG EACH MORNING THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AS
WELL, DIURNALLY ENHANCED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY (LESSER CHANCES
MONDAY AND TUESDAY).
MARINE
THROUGH TUESDAY...S-SWLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE INLAND
CAROLINAS AND HIGH PRESSURE FAR OFFSHORE. THIS FRONT WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE COAST AND BECOME INCREASINGLY DIFFUSE.
WITH THE OLD FRONT IN THE VICINITY LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL
PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL PREVAIL OFF THE COAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A RETURN OF
S-SWLY WINDS POTENTIALLY INCREASING TO AROUND 15 KNOTS BY
TUESDAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NC WATERS. SEAS WILL BE 3 FT OR
LESS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD GIVEN THE LIGHT WINDS AND LACK
OF ANY SIGNIFICANT SWELLS.
CLIMATE
WILMINGTON, NC IS CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING ITS HOTTEST SUMMER ON
RECORD. AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (THE SIMPLE AVERAGE OF EACH DAY'S
HIGH AND LOW TEMPS) IS CURRENTLY 0.1 DEG F ABOVE 2011'S AVERAGE,
THE CURRENT RECORD-HOTTEST SUMMER SEASON.
#1 2026 81.9 DEG F (WITH FOUR DAYS TO GO)
#2 2011 81.8 DEG F
#3 2010 81.8 DEG F
#4 2016 81.4 DEG F
#5 2022 81.1 DEG F
CONTINUOUS TEMPERATURE RECORDS BEGAN IN WILMINGTON IN 1874.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...TRA
KEY MESSAGES...SRP
DISCUSSION...SRP
AVIATION...TRA
MARINE...SRP
CLIMATE...TRA
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