428
FXUS62 KILM 221105
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
705 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR THE 06Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
COAST THIS MORNING, TRANSLATING INLAND THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS
AND STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
COAST THIS MORNING, TRANSLATING INLAND THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS
AND STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.
ONSHORE MOVEMENT OF CONVECTION THIS MORNING, MAINLY FROM MYRTLE
BEACH NORTH TO SURF CITY, WILL BE AIDED BY AN EMBEDDED MID-LEVEL S/W
TROF OR VORT. SEA BREEZE TO DEVELOP BY MIDDAY AND PROGRESS INLAND.
CONVECTION WILL THEN BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED ALONG AND WEST OF THE
SEA BREEZE THIS AFTN/EVENING WITH THE COASTAL COUNTIES DRYING OUT
LATER THIS AFTN INTO TONIGHT. A STALLED FRONT DRAPED ENE TO WSW FROM
THE NORTHERN O.B. ACROSS CENTRAL NC INTO CENTRAL SC WILL ALSO BE A
PLAYER FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS AFTERNOON. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS, SC COASTAL COUNTIES WILL GENERALLY OBSERVE UP TO 0.10
INCHES WHILE NC COASTAL COUNTIES WILL GENERALLY SEE 0.15-0.30 INCHES.
INLAND COUNTIES, IN THE VICINITY AND WEST OF I-95, COULD OBSERVE
0.20-0.40 INCHES.
(BETTER THAN NOTHING AT THIS STAGE OF THE ONGOING DROUGHT)
THE COLD FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED NORTH BY SATURDAY STALLING OVER THE
CAROLINAS BUT OUT OF OUR AREA. PWATS 1.5-2" WILL LINGER THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH A SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN OF DAILY SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS.
THERE DOES SEEM TO BE MORE RAINFALL POTENTIAL FOR SATURDAY DEPENDING
ON SMALL POCKETS OF PVA ALOFT AND THE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT. THESE
WOULD AID IN COVERAGE AROUND AND WEST OF I-95 WHERE ISOLATED
RAINFALL AMOUNTS +1" ARE POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE THE MAIN DRIVER WILL BE
THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE MOVING INLAND BY THE EVENING. ANOTHER FRONT
MAY APPROACH THE AREA MID NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
MVFR WILL BECOME COMMON DURING THIS MORNING, MAINLY DUE TO CEILINGS.
GUIDANCE NOT AS GUNGHO WITH FOG POTENTIAL BUT COASTAL TERMINALS
COULD OBSERVE ONSHORE MOVEMENT OF MVFR/IFR REDUCED VSBY AND LOWER
CEILINGS FROM PCPN LATER THIS MORNING THAT WILL TRANSLATE INLAND
MIDDAY INTO THIS AFTN AS THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS AND PROGRESSES
INLAND. THE COASTAL TERMINALS SHOULD BECOME VFR THIS AFTN THRU THIS
EVENING. INLAND TERMINALS WILL SEE FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS FROM
SCATTERED TSTORMS THIS AFTN AND EVENING. THE STALLED FRONT(WHATS
LEFT OF IT) WILL LIKELY INTERACT WITH INLAND PROGRESSING SEA BREEZE
TO FURTHER CONTINUE THE CONVECTIVE THREAT WELL INTO THIS
EVENING. MVFR/IFR FROM CEILINGS POSSIBLE AFTER 06Z ACROSS ALL
TERMINALS. WINDS GENERALLY VARIABLE 5 KT OR LESS BECOMING S-SSW
LESS THAN 5 KT, THEN INCREASING TO 10 KT DURING THIS
AFTN/EVENING. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE COASTAL TERMINALS, WHERE
WINDS WILL BE AFFECTED BY THE SEA BREEZE AND LIKELY BACK TO THE
SSE AROUND 10 KT.
EXTENDED FORECAST...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS EACH MORNING (MAINLY IN THE
08Z-12Z TIMEFRAME). PERIODIC FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING DUE TO CONVECTION.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT...SFC BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE
ACROSS THE AREA WATERS FROM THE EAST, REACHING BOTH CAROLINA COASTS
DURING THIS PERIOD. THIS WILL INFLUENCE A SSE-S WIND AROUND 10 KT
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS, AND 10 TO AROUND 15 KT ACROSS THE
ADJACENT OFFSHORE WATERS THRU THE PERIOD. SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO 4 FT,
EXCEPT UP TO 5 FT ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS. AN 8-10 SECOND PERIOD
SOUTHEAST SWELL WILL DOMINATE THE SEAS SPECTRUM. THE SEA BREEZE
PRODUCED, 3 TO 4 SECOND PERIOD WIND CHOP, WILL MAKE AN APPEARANCE
THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVENING.
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SSE WINDS 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS 20-60NMI
20-25 KTS. WINDS WILL BECOME A BIT MORE SW ON WEDNESDAY AS THE NEXT
FRONT APPROACHES. SEAS 2-4 FT OUT TO 20NMI AND LARGELY 4 FT BEYOND
TO 60NMI.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...ILM
KEY MESSAGES...DCH/LEW
DISCUSSION...DCH/LEW
AVIATION...DCH
MARINE...DCH/LEW
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