553
FXUS62 KILM 021125
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
625 AM EST TUE DEC 2 2025
SYNOPSIS
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH TODAY BRINGING SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL TO THE AREA. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN LATER TODAY
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH A DISTURBANCE BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF
RAIN STARTING AS EARLY AS LATE THURSDAY AND CONTINUING INTO THE
WEEKEND. DRYING IS EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
MADE MINOR INITIALIZATION TWEAKS TO THE PUBLIC FORECAST TO
ACCOUNT FOR A BIT SLOWER PROGRESSION OF COASTAL WARM FRONT WHICH
STILL REMAINS OFFSHORE. ALSO UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR
12Z TAFS.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES/HIGHLIGHTS:
*HAZARDS: NONE
*RAIN CHANCES: HIGH TODAY; NONE TONIGHT
*TEMPS: NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TODAY; BELOW NORMAL TONIGHT
*CONFIDENCE: MODERATE TO HIGH
DETAILS: HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO GIVE WAY TO TWO LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS TO OUR SOUTH, ONE OFF THE GA/SC COAST AND ANOTHER ALONG THE
FL PANHANDLE. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT BOTH LOWS WILL MAINLY
STAY SE OF SE NC AND NE SC BUT PLENTY OF MOISTURE, LOW-LEVEL
ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND MID TO UPPER-LEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL
LEAD TO HIGH RAIN CHANCES INTO EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE WINDING DOWN
LATER IN THE DAY FROM THE WEST AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE
DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS. FORTUNATELY, THE COASTAL WARM FRONT
NORTH OF THE LOW DIRECTLY TO OUR SOUTH SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE GIVEN
THE STRENGTH OF THE INLAND HIGH PRESSURE WHICH IS BEING REINFORCED
BY THE RAINFALL. THUS, THE VERY SMALL RISK FOR A SEVERE STORM ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY NEAR THE COAST LOOKS EVEN LOWER THAN THE PAST FEW
DAYS. RAIN AMOUNTS SHOULD MAINLY BE AROUND AN INCH WITH SOME PLACES
SEEING UP TO AROUND 1.5", MAINLY INLAND AND ALSO NEAR THE NC COAST
NORTH OF CAPE FEAR. OTHERWISE, SHOULD SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS LATER
IN THE DAY WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING IN THE AFTERNOON EARLIER THAN
NORMAL, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST WHERE THEY COULD BRIEFLY RISE INTO
THE LOWER TO POSSIBLY MID 60S, ESPECIALLY AROUND CAPE FEAR. BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH LOWS NEAR 30 INLAND
AND 40 NEAR THE COAST.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
MOSTLY DRY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES. WEDNESDAY WILL SEE CLEARER
SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT PASSING HIGH CLOUDS MAY PREVENT OUR
TRADITIONALLY COLDER SPOTS FROM GETTING TOO COLD. REGARDLESS WE'LL
ONCE AGAIN BE BELOW FREEZING AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST. CLOUDS
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD AND THICKEN THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY AS GULF
MOISTURE APPROACHES FROM THE SW. PWATS WILL START TO RECOVER TO ~1"
THURSDAY NIGHT WHERE WE COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS FILTERING IN
AROUND AND AFTER MIDNIGHT. FOR NOW GUIDANCE SEEMS KEYED IN ON LOWS
BEING ABOVE FREEZING WHEN THIS MOISTURE STARTS TO KICK IN, SO ANY
WINTRY PRECIP SHOULD STAY TO OUR NORTH WHERE COLDER TEMPS ARE.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED AT THIS TIME. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
LOOKS TO PUSH THROUGH INTO FRIDAY MORNING BRINGING SLIGHTLY COLDER
CONDITIONS AS IT LOOKS LIKE A BRIEF WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FORMS
BEFORE DISSOLVING INTO THE WEEKEND. A STALLED FRONT ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST COULD HAVE SOME PULSES OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG IT AS
SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH ALOFT, RAIN CHANCES LINGERING THROUGH THE
MAJORITY OF THE WEEKEND. OUR BEST CHANCES OF RAIN FOR NOW ARE
FRIDAY. THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE AWAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH
DRIER CONDITIONS RETURNING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
12Z TAFS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN RESTRICTIONS TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND MAYBE A
FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER NEAR THE COAST THIS AM, ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS LOWER REGARDING TIMING/SEVERITY OF RESTRICTIONS.
EXPECT PREVAILING IFR CIGS MUCH OF THE DAY, POSSIBLY EVEN TO
LIFR AT TIMES. SHOULD START TO SEE A RETURN TO VFR LATE IN THE
DAY OR THIS EVE AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN BEHIND DEPARTING LOW
PRESSURE, INITIALLY INLAND AT KFLO/KLBT, ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS
PRETTY LOW GIVEN MUCH MODEL DISAGREEMENT. THERE IS MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING BY 12Z WED. ALSO, A VERY
STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATER THIS
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON LEADING TO LLWS, ESPECIALLY AT THE
COASTAL TERMINALS (KILM/KCRE/KMYR).
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR TO PREVAIL WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING RESTRICTIONS
STARTING FRIDAY.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE THIS PERIOD. LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE NE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE THRU TONIGHT. ELEVATED WINDS/SEAS INTO THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY RANGE ARE EXPECTED INTO THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT. SOME
GALES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE, MAINLY NEAR THE GULF STREAM, BUT NOT ENOUGH
TO WARRANT ANY GALE WARNINGS. THERE MAY ALSO BE A FEW STRONGER
STORMS WITH GALE FORCE OR STRONGER WINDS AND WATERSPOUTS, MAINLY FAR
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA TOWARD THE WARMER AND MORE
HUMID (I.E, UNSTABLE) AIR OVER THE GULF STREAM.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN WILL LEAD TO
NORTHERLY FLOW DECREASING FROM ~15-20 KTS TO AOB 10 KTS THROUGH THE
DAY WEDNESDAY. GENERALLY OFFSHORE FLOW ~10 KTS WILL THEN STICK
AROUND UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING WHEN A COLD FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH AND NE WINDS INCREASE TO ~15 KTS. OFFSHORE WINDS WILL THEN
LINGER THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD ~10-15 KTS. 4 FOOTERS WILL
DECLINE WITH THE IMPROVING CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH 2-3 FT
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ250-252-
254-256.
SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...RJB
NEAR TERM...RJB
SHORT TERM...LEW
LONG TERM...LEW
AVIATION...RJB
MARINE...RJB/LEW
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page