957
FXUS62 KILM 090154
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
954 PM EDT TUE SEP 8 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
COASTAL FLOODING HAS COME TO AN END AFTER THE EVENING HIGH TIDE
CYCLE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DRIER WEATHER INITIALLY, THEN WARMER WITH RAIN CHANCES
RETURNING DURING THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...DRIER WEATHER INITIALLY, THEN WARMER WITH RAIN
CHANCES RETURNING DURING THE WEEK.
RIDGING ALOFT, CURRENTLY FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MS
VALLEY, WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. DURING WEDNESDAY.
THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP THE COLUMN MOSTLY DRY ALONG WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BE FAR OFF THE NC COAST AT THIS TIME.
THE H5 RIDGE WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST DURING THURSDAY WITH WEAK
RETURN FLOW ALLOWING THE HIGHER PWAT ENVIRONMENT TO THE SOUTH TO
SPREAD NORTHWARD AGAIN. DURING THURSDAY WILL MAINTAIN THE
HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE SC ZONES (40-60%) WITH SOME ACROSS THE
NC ZONES (20-40%). THE HIGH PWATS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A FRONT POTENTIALLY
STALLING/WEAKENING ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND.
AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE TONIGHT. A FEW CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE AT
COASTAL TERMINALS TONIGHT, BUT EASTERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
DECREASE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK... PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH
DRY HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE, WITH RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLY RETURNING
IN CONVECTION AT TIMES THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MARINE
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY: HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE VA/NC COAST WILL
FOCUS THE STRONGER ENE FETCH JUST SOUTH OF THE SOUTH SANTEE
MARINE ZONE WITH THE WEAKER WINDS GENERALLY NORTH OF CAPE FEAR.
THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL EXTEND NEARLY E-W INTO NC TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING ALLOWING FOR LIGHTER ELY WINDS. THE HIGH
WILL SHIFT FARTHER OFFSHORE DURING WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
ALLOWING FOR ADDITIONAL VEERING WITH THE GRADIENT LIGHT ENOUGH
FOR WINDS AROUND 10 KTS. AN INLAND TROUGH WILL BECOME
ESTABLISHED BY FRIDAY AND WITH HIGH PRESSURE MUCH FARTHER
OFFSHORE S-SWLY WINDS WILL RETURN. MORE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS THIS
WEEKEND WITH A FRONT POSSIBLY STALLING/WEAKENING ACROSS THE
WATERS. SEAS WILL BE GREATEST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TODAY AND
TONIGHT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ILM WATERS, THEN 3 FT OR
LESS THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING PERIOD.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...21
KEY MESSAGES...SRP
DISCUSSION...SRP
AVIATION...21/SRP
MARINE...SRP
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page