350
FXUS62 KILM 281740
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1240 PM EST WED JAN 28 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE. 18Z TAF DISCUSSION UPDATED
BELOW.
KEY MESSAGES
1) TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT SEVEN
DAYS WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILL
TEMPERATURES.
2) DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THIS WEEKEND
WILL LIKELY BRING SNOW AND HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS TO THE
AREA.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH AT LEAST
THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF DANGEROUSLY LOW
WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES.
A SERIES OF ARCTIC AIR MASSES MOVING OVER THE SOUTHEAST OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES 10-20 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR A PORTION OF
THE AREA FRI NIGHT. EXTREME COLD WARNINGS ARE LIKELY THIS
WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT, FOR WIND CHILL VALUES AS LOW
AS AROUND ZERO DEGREES.
KEY MESSAGE 2: DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
THIS WEEKEND WILL LIKELY BRING SNOW AND HAZARDOUS TRAVEL
CONDITIONS TO THE AREA.
CONFIDENCE IN THE PRESENCE OF A SYSTEM OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
THIS WEEKEND CONTINUES TO SLOWLY INCREASE, BUT THE FINER
DETAILS REMAIN IN QUESTION SO THERE'S NO LARGE CHANGES WITH THIS
FORECAST UPDATE. VERY COLD AIR WILL BE IN PLACE, WITH
TEMPERATURES 10-20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. A SOUTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE HELPS DEVELOP A SURFACE LOW ALONG THE GULF COAST LATE
THIS WEEK, WHICH THEN MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA BEFORE
HEADING NORTHEAST OFF THE COAST. MEANWHILE A 5H TROUGH DROPPING
SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL INTERACT WITH THE OFFSHORE LOW.
THE TIMING OF THE INTERACTION AND THE LOCATION OF THESE 2
FEATURES AT THAT TIME WILL DETERMINE IF THE LOCAL AREA GETS
PRECIPITATION (MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW GIVEN THERMAL
PROFILES) AND HOW MUCH FALLS. THERE ARE SEVERAL KEY DIFFERENCES
IN THE WAY THE 5H TROUGH IS BEING HANDLED BY THE GUIDANCE. IT'S
SPEED, TILT, STRENGTH WILL ALL BE FACTORS IN DETERMINING WHERE
THE SNOW FALLS AND WHERE THE ACCUMULATION GRADIENTS SET UP.
THIS IS LIKELY TO BE A SYSTEM WHERE SNOW TOTALS COULD RANGE
SEVERAL INCHES ACROSS COUNTY. SO NEEDLESS TO SAY, CONFIDENCE
WITH RESPECT TO THE FINER POINTS OF THE FORECAST REMAINS QUITE
LOW GIVEN THE EVENT IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS OUT. DO HAVE HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN SNOW VS SLEET/FREEZING RAIN, WHERE PRECIPITATION
FALLS, AND DO HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE PRESENCE OF THE
SURFACE AND 5H LOWS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR RAPID STRENGTHENING OF
THE LOW OFFSHORE, WITH THE GENERAL CONSENSUS SUGGESTING THIS
WILL HAPPEN NORTH OF THE AREA. DRY AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE 5H
LOW IS ANOTHER SOURCE OF FORECAST UNCERTAINTY. IF THE DRY SLOT
IS STRONGER AND FASTER THAN THE GUIDANCE IS DEPICTING, TOTAL QPF
COULD END UP LOWER. CONSIDERING ALL THE SOURCES OF UNCERTAINTY
AND LOOKING AT THE ENSEMBLE DATA AND THE PROBABILISTIC DATA SETS
OF THE NBM CAN MAKE A FEW EDUCATED GUESSES. BEST CHANCE FOR ANY
SNOW WOULD BE SAT INTO SAT NIGHT. LIKELY TOTAL QPF IS ON THE
ORDER OF 0.20"-0.50", HOWEVER IF EVERYTHING LINES UP PERFECT
QPF COULD BE 2 OR 3 TIMES HIGHER. WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES WILL
LIKELY BE ISSUED AT SOME POINT PER COORDINATION WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
EXTENDED FORECAST...SOME FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
WITH A STORM SYSTEM THIS WEEKEND.
MARINE
THROUGH THURSDAY...
WINDS WILL MAINTAIN A NORTHERLY COMPONENT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SPEEDS CURRENTLY IN THE 10-15 KNOT RANGE WILL INCREASE A BIT
OVERNIGHT AND BECOME A LITTLE GUSTY. WHILE THE GUSTS MAY REACH
25 KNOTS ONLY ISOLATED OBSERVATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THIS
THRESHOLD AND A HEADLINE IS NOT WARRANTED. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL
BE 2-4 FEET.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE EARLY THIS PERIOD WITH SFC HIGH
PRESSURE OFF TO THE NORTH. SFC LOW PRESSURE THEN DEVELOPS
OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT, LEADING TO INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AT LEAST GALES, AND POSSIBLY STORM WARNING
CRITERIA, ARE A GOOD BET STARTING SAT NIGHT IN THE N TO NW FLOW
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW WITH IT STRENGTHENING CONSIDERABLY
AS IT SLIDES OFF TO THE NE. MEANWHILE, WIND WAVES WILL RISE TO
7-9 FT OUT 20NM. MAY TAKE UNTIL MONDAY FOR LINGERING SCA
CONDITIONS TO SUBSIDE AS THE LOW PUSHES FARTHER OFFSHORE.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...MAS
KEY MESSAGES...ILM
DISCUSSION...III/MAS/SHK
AVIATION...SHK
MARINE...MAS/SHK
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