470
FXUS62 KILM 170340
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1140 PM EDT MON MAR 16 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE GALE WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT MIDNIGHT EDT. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS
THROUGH 7 AM EDT AND 10 AM EDT RESPECTIVELY AS BREEZY WESTERLY
FLOW AND ELEVATED SEAS CONTINUE. A MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR ABNORMALLY LOW WATER LEVELS IN TIDAL WATERWAYS
DURING THE UPCOMING LOW TIDE CYCLE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING.
2) SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT, AND POSSIBLE
AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE INTO EARLY
THIS EVENING.
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT WITH THE PRIMARY
THREAT OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO.
SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPANDED IN COVERAGE INTO EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON LIMITING THE POTENTIAL INSTABILITY BUT THE OVERALL
THREAT WILL CONTINUE UNTIL A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
INTO THIS EVENING. THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN GUSTY AND
POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS EXISTS AS THE LOW LEVEL WINDS
REMAIN STRONG, BUT THE INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN A LIMITING
FACTOR. ALSO, DECENT SHEAR REMAINS, MAINTAINING ONTO THE THREAT
OF A TORNADO. THE GREATEST THREAT WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH 6 TO 8 PM THIS EVENING BEFORE COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY
OFFSHORE.
KEY MESSAGE 2...SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY
NIGHT, AND POSSIBLE AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
FREEZING TEMPERATURES STILL APPEAR LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT, AND
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH TO UPGRADE THE FREEZE WATCH TO A FREEZE
WARNING. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS COASTAL GEORGETOWN WHERE TEMPS MAY
ONLY BOTTOM OUT AROUND 33-35 DEGREES, SO KEPT THE WATCH THERE FOR
NOW. LOW TEMPS ARE EXPECTED IN THE UPR 20S MOST AREAS, WITH MID 20S
OVER TYPICAL COLDER SPOTS WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS.
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT, LOWS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 30S SO THERE'S A
LOWER CHANCE FOR A FREEZE THAN TUESDAY NIGHT, HOWEVER PATCHY TO
AREAS OF FROST ARE EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF SE NORTH CAROLINA AND NE
SOUTH CAROLINA.
AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
SHALLOW SHOWERS ALONG THE COLD FRONT ARE PRODUCING STRONG WIND
GUSTS ACROSS THE AREA, WITH LIGHTER STRATIFORM DRIZZLE TRAILING
BEHIND. THIS FRONT SHOULD BE OFFSHORE BY ~8-9PM, WITH GUSTY
WEST WINDS REMAINING THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE NIGHT.
KFLO/KLBT HAVE SEEN THE STRONGEST OF THESE WINDS WITH THE
MYRTLES ABOUT TO BE IMPACTED. KILM WILL SEE THE LINE GO THROUGH
~01-02Z. VFR TO RETURN FOR TONIGHT WITH GUSTS 25-30 KTS POSSIBLE
THROUGH 06-08Z. WINDS NEAR SUNRISE TUESDAY WILL BE ~10 KTS WITH
LIGHTER GUSTS ~15 KTS.
EXTENDED FORECAST...VFR THROUGH SATURDAY.
MARINE
THROUGH TUESDAY... GALE WARNING CONTINUES IN EFFECT UNTIL
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WITH STRONG WINDS AND MAINLY GALE GUSTS. SEAS
WILL REMAIN ROUGH WITH WATERSPOUTS POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS
EVENING. WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT
TONIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOLLOWING THE
GALE WARNING TO ADDRESS GUSTINESS IN COLD AIR ADVECTION. SEAS
WILL GRADUALLY RECOVER LATE TONIGHT INTO DAYBREAK TUESDAY.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS FOR THE
DURATION OF THIS PERIOD WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA
MUCH OF THE TIME. WINDS NO HIGHER THAN 10-15 KT - MAINLY TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY, AND SEAS CONSISTENTLY IN THE 2-4 FT RANGE.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ087-096-
099-105>110.
SC...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR SCZ017-023-
024-032-033-039-054-055-058-059.
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR SCZ056.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR AMZ250-252-254-256.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ250-252.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ254-256.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...ILM/21
KEY MESSAGES...MAS/RGZ
DISCUSSION...MAS/RGZ
AVIATION...LEW
MARINE...MAS/RGZ
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