429
FXUS62 KILM 131015
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
615 AM EDT MON JUL 13 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 12Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) ELEVATED RAIN CHANCES EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY WITH ISOLATED
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY.
2) WARM WEATHER RETURNS LATE WEEK AS A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...ELEVATED RAIN CHANCES EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY WITH
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY.
THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE SOUTHEAST WITH A CLOSED LOW ALOFT AND
PERIODIC WAVES OF MID-LEVEL ENERGY PUSHING THROUGH. DEPENDING ON
WHERE THESE INGREDIENTS COME TOGETHER, AFTERNOON/EVENING STORM
COVERAGE WILL BE ENHANCED NEAR THE BOUNDARY. FOR NOW, RESOLUTIONS
HAVE THIS BOUNDARY NEARBY BUT ULTIMATELY TO OUR SOUTH. SHOULD THE
BOUNDARY NUDGE NORTH THERE COULD BE AN ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND
FLOODING THREAT FOR OUR NE SC AREAS CLOSEST TO THE BOUNDARY.
CONDITIONS LOOK LESS CONDUCIVE FOR SEVERE WEATHER TUESDAY AS THE
BOUNDARY IS PUSHED FURTHER SOUTH DUE TO BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.
KEY MESSAGE 2...WARM WEATHER RETURNS LATE WEEK AS A RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE SOUTHEAST.
A WARMING TREND BEGINS WEDNESDAY AS A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST, TEMPERATURES RISING BACK ABOVE NORMAL. AS HEAT AND
HUMIDITY BUILDS THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK, APPARENT
TEMPERATURES MAY RISE TO OR ABOVE 105 DEGREES. RAIN CHANCES DON'T
START TO RECOVER UNTIL THE WEEKEND SO THERE WILL BE LITTLE TO
DISRUPT DAYTIME HEATING.
AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
MAINLY VFR THIS MORNING WITH A FEW POCKETS OF MVFR/IFR CIGS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. SHOWERS/STORMS AGAIN LIKELY THIS
AFTN/EVENING, WITH IFR VSBYS DUE TO HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS
POSSIBLE. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN LOW STRATUS DEVELOPING INLAND
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS RAIN CHANCES DECREASE.
EXTENDED FORECAST...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN A CONCERN FOR
TEMPORARY FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS INTO TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE REGION BY MIDWEEK WITH PREDOMINANTLY VFR
CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
MARINE
LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS SHOULD BECOME MORE E/NE BEHIND A COLD FRONT,
SPEEDS ~10KTS AND SEAS ~2-4 FT. WINDS WILL COME AROUND TO THE WSW
LATE WEDNESDAY WITH THE PG INCREASING AS A DISTURBANCE PASSES TO THE
NORTH, WIND SPEEDS INCREASING TO 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS
STARTING THURSDAY.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 6 PM TO 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
NCZ106-108-110.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EDT
TONIGHT FOR NCZ107.
SC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 6 PM TO 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
SCZ054-056.
MARINE...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...ILM
KEY MESSAGES...LEW
DISCUSSION...LEW
AVIATION...MAS
MARINE...LEW
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