372  
FXUS62 KILM 260139  
AFDILM  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC  
939 PM EDT SUN OCT 25 2020  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING QUIET AND MILD WEATHER THROUGH  
WEDNESDAY. THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE ZETA WILL MOVE UP  
THE APPALACHIANS THURSDAY, AND A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS  
THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVER THE  
WEEKEND.  
 

 
   
UPDATE
 
 
BASICALLY HAVE PCPN ENDING DURING THE MID TO LATE EVENING HOURS.  
NOW THE THREAT WILL BE LOW STRATUS AND/OR FOG. NORTHERLY WINDS  
WILL REMAIN ACTIVE OVERNIGHT THRU MON AND SHOULD AID IN THE  
PREVENTION OF GROUND BASED FOG. HOWEVER, THE LOW LEVELS WILL  
REMAIN MOIST AND THUS SUPPORTING THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD  
STRATUS BELOW 1K FT. AREAL FOG COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED TO  
PATCHY AT THIS TIME, AND AS MENTIONED EARLIER, THE MAIN THREAT  
OVERNIGHT INTO MID TO LATE DAYTIME MON WILL BE THE LOW STRATUS.  
VERY LITTLE TWEAKING NEEDED FOR THE FCST TEMPS OVERNIGHT.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
 
 
EXPECT SHOWERS TO LINGER OVER THE AREA THROUGH ABOUT 7 PM. RESIDUAL  
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ABUNDANT LOW CLOUDS  
TONIGHT. FAIR WEATHER WITH LESS CLOUDS IS EXPECTED MONDAY AND  
MONDAY NIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE AREA. LOWS  
TONIGHT WILL FALL TO THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60 WITH LOWS MONDAY NIGHT  
EXPECTED TO BOTTOM IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. HIGHS MONDAY WILL  
REACH THE LOW TO MID 70S.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
 
 
MID/UPPER RIDGING WILL HOLD ON OFF THE SOUTHEAST US COAST THROUGH  
WEDNESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THIS RIDGE WILL TRANSITION EASTWARD  
AS TROPICAL CYCLONE ZETA OPENS UP AND LIFTS ACROSS AL AND NORTHERN  
GA. WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN NC WILL PRODUCE A LIGHT  
NORTHEAST BREEZE TUESDAY, VEERING TO THE SOUTH AND INCREASING  
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH WARM FROPA AS ZETA REMNANTS APPROACH THE  
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. WILL ALSO SEE AN INCREASE IN SHOWER POTENTIAL  
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUING WEDNESDAY  
NIGHT, ALTHOUGH ACTIVITY SHOULD BE SCATTERED AT MOST.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
 
 
DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL RESULT IN TEMPS 5-7 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO ON  
THURSDAY WITH MOST AREAS REACHING AROUND 80. CLOSED 500 MB LOW WILL  
TRAVERSE TN THURSDAY NIGHT, AND IT, ALONG WITH ITS SURFACE  
REFLECTION WILL MOVE RAPIDLY OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY,  
AND DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. RAIN CHANCES  
WILL PEAK THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING, THEN FALL OFF  
RAPIDLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON BASED ON GFS/ECMWF CONSENSUS. HIGH  
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE WEEKEND, WITH A SURFACE WEDGE  
ACROSS THE INTERIOR CAROLINAS AND A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH JUST  
OFFSHORE.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
THE LAST OF THE PCPN ACROSS COASTAL NC IS QUICKLY DISSIPATING  
AND SHOULD NOT BE A CONCERN FROM HERE ON OUT. HOWEVER, PLENTY OF  
TRAPPED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN LOW STRATUS, INITIALLY  
MVFR THRESHOLD, THAT WILL LOWER TO IFR/LIFR THRESHOLDS PRIOR TO  
MIDNIGHT AND LAST THROUGH LATE DAYTIME MON MORNING. CLOUDS WILL  
SLOWLY LIFT TO MVFR AND HIGH THRESHOLDS FROM MIDDAY ONWARD, AS  
DRY AIR FINALLY INFILTRATES THE LOWER LEVELS. WINDS GENERALLY  
N-NE AT 5 TO 10 KT TONIGHT AND 6 TO 12 KT DURING DAYLIGHT MON.  
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...LOOKING AT MAINLY VFR MON THROUGH WED WITH  
POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR DURING THE EARLY MORNING HRS EACH DAY FROM GROUND  
FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS. FOR THU THRU FRI, EXPECT ZETA REMNANTS  
TO PUSH ACROSS THE CAROLINAS FOLLOWED BY A CFP.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...EXPECT N TO NE WINDS OF 15 KT OR LESS  
WITH SEAS OF 2 TO 3 FT.  
 
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN NC WILL  
YIELD NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS, HOWEVER THE GRADIENT  
WILL BE WEAK, WITH WIND SPEEDS ON THE ORDER OF 10 KT OR LESS.  
DIRECTION WILL VEER TO THE EAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY,  
WITH SPEEDS ON THE ORDER OF 10-15 KTS. THE GRADIENT WILL  
STRENGTHEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS THE REMNANTS OF TC  
ZETA MOVE UP THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS, AND WINDS WILL SWING TO  
THE SOUTH AND INCREASE TO 20 KTS. WILL ALSO SEE POTENTIAL FOR  
SCATTERED SHOWERS INCREASING LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT,  
ALTHOUGH THE MOST SIGNIFICANT RAINS WILL REMAIN WELL INLAND.  
SEAS WILL START OFF AROUND 2 FT TUESDAY, BUILDING TO 3 FT  
WEDNESDAY, AND TO 5-6 FT BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN STRONG SW  
FLOW. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO  
SATURDAY.  
 

 
   
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
SC...NONE.  
NC...NONE.  
MARINE...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...ILM  
UPDATE...DCH  
NEAR TERM...31  
SHORT TERM...CRM  
LONG TERM...CRM  
AVIATION...43  
MARINE...DCH/CRM/31  
 
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