673
FXUS62 KILM 121039
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
639 AM EDT MON OCT 12 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ADDED SOME CLOUD COVER FOR SCT-V-BKN STRATUS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
FORECAST AREA FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING. ALSO INCREASED WIND
GUSTS FOR THIS MORNING GIVEN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND MIXING
EXPECTED. WINDS WILL DECREASE LATER IN THE DAY AND SKIES WILL BE
MOSTLY CLEAR. OTHERWISE, THE TAF DISCUSSION WAS UPDATED FOR THE
12Z SET.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) DRY FORECAST DOMINATES THE WORK WEEK, WITH TEMPERATURES
SOARING ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS.
- 2) MOST SIGNIFICANT COOLDOWN OF THE SEASON SO FAR SETTLES IN
THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...DRY FORECAST DOMINATES THE WORK WEEK, WITH
TEMPERATURES SOARING ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS.
UPPER RIDGE IN THE GULF WILL SLOWLY PUSH NORTHWARD TOWARDS TEXAS
AND LOUISIANA, BEFORE MOVING EASTWARD INTO THE DEEP SOUTH THIS
WEEK. SUBSIDENCE KEEPS THE FORECAST DRY. EVEN MORE NOTICEABLE IS
A MID-OCTOBER HEATWAVE THAT SENDS HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-
TO-UPPER 80S. WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY APPEAR TO BE THE WARMEST,
WHERE SEVERAL SPOTS COULD BE FLIRTING WITH 90 DEGREES. DEWPOINTS
WILL REMAIN IN THE MID 60S MUCH OF THIS WEEK, GETTING NEAR 70 AT
TIMES DURING THE COAST.
IT'S OCTOBER, MIND YOU.
KEY MESSAGE 2...MOST SIGNIFICANT COOLDOWN OF THE SEASON SO FAR
SETTLES IN THIS WEEKEND.
SUMMER-LIKE RIDGE FINALLY GETS PUSHED INTO THE ATLANTIC BY A
POTENT UPPER TROUGH THAT DIVES SOUTHWARD FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST.
THIS PUSHES A DRY COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION, AND THE
CAROLINAS ARE FINALLY GREETED WITH GLORIOUS FALL AIR BY THE
WEEKEND. HIGHS ONLY REACH THE MID 60S, WHILE LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT
DIP INTO THE LOW-TO-MID 40S. BREAK OUT THE PUMPKIN SPICE!
AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
STRATUS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WILL PRIMARILY AFFECT KILM
THROUGH AROUND 13-14Z AND MIXING WILL ALLOW THE LOW CIGS TO
DISSIPATE. HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. NWLY WINDS WILL BE GUSTY, ESPECIALLY AT
KLBT/KILM THEN WINDS WILL DIMINISH DURING THE AFTERNOON.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY.
MARINE
THROUGH FRIDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE RIVER INLET, SC TO SOUTH SANTEE
RIVER, SC OUT 20 NM, BUT CONTINUES UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING
FROM LITTLE RIVER INLET, SC UP TO SURF CITY, NC OUT 20 NM. AFTER
ADVISORY CONDITIONS SUBSIDE, W WINDS GRADUALLY VEER TO THE N BY
THIS EVENING, COMING DOWN TO A GENTLE BREEZE. SEAS IMPROVE TO
1-3 FT. GENTLE BREEZE STICKS AROUND THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING,
COMING FROM THE NE TUESDAY, AND THEN BACK TO THE SW BY
WEDNESDAY. SEAS IMPROVE EVEN MORE TO 1-2 FT. BY MIDDAY FRIDAY,
GRADIENT WINDS INCREASE TO A FRESH BREEZE AHEAD OF THE NEXT
FRONTAL SYSTEM. SEAS GO UP TO 2-4 FT. DRY FORECAST DOMINATES.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR AMZ250-
252.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...SRP
KEY MESSAGES...IGB
DISCUSSION...IGB
AVIATION...SRP
MARINE...IGB
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