283
FXUS62 KILM 151847
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
247 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2025
SYNOPSIS
LOW PRESSURE EAST OF CAPE FEAR WILL SPREAD CLOUDS AND SOME RAIN
ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA OVERNIGHT. THE LOW WILL LINGER
NEAR THE OUTER BANKS THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE
BRINGS DRIER AND SLIGHTLY WARMER WEATHER FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
THE OFFSHORE IS ROUGHLY NEAR CAPE HATTERAS AT THIS TIME, WHERE
IT LOOKS TO STALL THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD, CONTINUING TO
IMPACT EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA JUST TO OUR NORTH. A NORTH BREEZE
WILL LINGER TONIGHT WITH INCREASING MID/LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER,
PARTICULARLY FOR SE NC. FOG SHOULDN'T BE AN ISSUE. WINDS WILL
TURN TO THE NW AS THE SYSTEM SHIFTS SLIGHTLY, BEING JUST AS
STRONG AS WE'VE BEEN SEEING, 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS 20-25 MPH.
RAIN CHANCES WILL SHIFT FROM OUR EASTERN AREAS TO OUR INLAND NC
AREAS INTO TUESDAY MORNING. SCATTERED ACTIVITY IS WHAT WE'RE
EXPECTING AT BEST AND RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE LIGHT, LIKELY
BELOW 0.5".
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
UPPER LOW MOVING ONSHORE OVER NORTHEASTERN NC WILL PUSH
MOISTURE INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE
LATE TUESDAY. WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE MOISTURE ON THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THE LOW, CLOUDS AND SHOWERS COULD BE ONGOING
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. THE LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD
LIMIT THE INTENSITY OF ANY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP TO A LIGHT
SHOWER OR DRIZZLE.
THE NBM IS KEEPING MOST OF THE AREA DRY ON TUESDAY EVENING, BUT
I HAVE INTRODUCED A CONTOUR OF SLIGHT CHANCE SOUTHWARD TOWARD
THE NC/SC STATE LINE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE REMNANT MOISTURE AROUND
THE LOW. THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE IN THE LUMBERTON AND
ELIZABETHTOWN VICINITY.
MUCH OF THE EXISTING PV ADVECTION SUCCUMBS TO WEAK SUBSIDENCE
AS THE LOW BEGINS A GRADUAL DRIFT TO THE NORTH AND EAST. SOME
DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS ALSO WORKS TO SCOUR THE REMAINING RAIN
CHANCES OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. CLOUD COVER SHOULD
REMAIN AS POOLING MOISTURE SITS BENEATH A MID LEVEL INVERSION.
CURRENT FORECAST LOWS ARE LIKELY TOO COOL GIVEN THE ANTICIPATED
CLOUD COVER. EXPECT UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
NORTHERLY FLOW ON WEDNESDAY, IN ADDITION TO LOW CLOUDS, WILL
KEEP THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA IN THE 70S, A FEW STATIONS COULD
STRUGGLE TO REACH THE 75 DEGREE MARK. PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING LOWS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT, DEPENDING ON THE EXTENT AND
THICKNESS OF CLOUD COVER. MODELS INDICATE THAT SUBSIDENCE SHOULD
HAVE ERODED CLOUDS BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY AND THE MAJORITY OF
GUIDANCE HAS LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. MODEL SOUNDINGS HINT AT SOME
STUBBORN CLOUD COVER, SO A CLOUDY EVENING COULD HOLD
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
DRY AIR AND WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL DOMINATE THE END OF THE
WEEK. WESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING A CONSTANT SUPPLY OF DRY AIR
WHILE DISORGANIZED RIDGING ALOFT ALLOWS SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO
CLIMB TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID SEPTEMBER. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BEGIN TO SETTLE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN US ON SATURDAY, SETTING
THE STAGE FOR A COOLER AND CLOUDIER DAY ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER WEDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW, GRADUALLY TURNING TOWARD THE NE ON
SUNDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY RETURN FOR SUNDAY
AND MONDAY WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER. ENSEMBLES STILL SHOW DRY
AIR WITH THIS WEDGE, SO PRECIP CHANCES REMAIN LOW.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
PREDOMINANTLY VFR WITH SOME MVFR POSSIBLE AS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO
SHEAR OFF THE SYSTEM TO OUR EAST. KLBT AND KILM ARE AT HIGHEST
RISK FOR MVFR BUILDING IN TONIGHT AND THEN THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING WHERE IFR MAY BECOME POSSIBLE. THE QUESTION WILL BE THE
COVERAGE. IMPACTS FROM CIGS SHOULD STOP AT THE SC TERMINALS
THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD, BUT DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF
THE LOW AS IT COULD PUSH INLAND TO OUR NORTH, CLOUDS MAY START
TO IMPACT SC TERMINALS BEYOND THE 24HR TAF PERIOD. OTHERWISE, N
WINDS WILL STAY AROUND 5-7 KTS TONIGHT, BECOMING MORE NW AS THE
SYSTEM SHIFTS. NW WINDS WILL BE ESTABLISHED BY TUESDAY MORNING,
INCREASING TO ~10 KTS WITH GUSTS ~20 KTS BY THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK... MVFR/IFR MAY LINGER THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE IMPACTS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. CLEARING IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK UNDER DRY HIGH
PRESSURE.
MARINE
THROUGH TUESDAY... SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE SITS OFF CAPE HATTERAS. THE SYSTEM WILL
STALL OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH TUESDAY WITH WINDS
BECOMING OFFSHORE STILL ~20 KTS, BUT SEAS WITH DROPPING TO 2-4
FT AFTER THE WIND SHIFT. THE NW WIND WAVE WILL MAKE FOR CHOPPY
WATERS, BUT JUST SHORT OF SCA CRITERIA.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY... LOW PRESSURE LIFTS OFF TO THE
NORTH AND EAST DURING THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK. A WEAKENING
GRADIENT WILL ALLOW NW AND W WINDS TO GRADUALLY RELAX THROUGH
THURSDAY. SEAS DECREASE FROM 2-4 FEET LATE TUESDAY TO 1-2 BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING. ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON, WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND
AN AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE SHOULD BECOME DOMINANT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE NORTHEASTERN US WILL RE-
ESTABLISH E AND NE FLOW LATE SATURDAY WITH A WEDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE TO BUILD FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND. STILL TOO
EARLY TO DISCUSS SPECIFIC TIMING DETAILS, BUT EXPECT A PERIOD OF
SCA CONDITIONS LATE THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ106.
HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ108.
SC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ056.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ250-252.
SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...LEW
SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM...21
AVIATION...LEW
MARINE...21/LEW
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