843
FXUS62 KILM 122344
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
744 PM EDT FRI JUN 12 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
HEAT ADVISORY HAS ENDED FOR TODAY, BUT SHOULD SEE PORTIONS OF
AREA BACK IN HEAT ADVISORY ON SATURDAY. BEACHES SHOULD REMAIN IN
LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR SATURDAY. AVIATION DISCUSSION
UPDATED BELOW.
KEY MESSAGES
1) WEEKEND HEAT ALONG WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...WEEKEND HEAT ALONG WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... TODAY'S PATTERN FEATURING THE
LOCKED IN MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL CHANGE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY IN
FAVOR OF LOW AMPLITUDE VORT-LADEN TROUGHINESS. PAIR THIS WITH A
WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING INTO THE AREA IN THE PRESENCE OF ALL OF
THE HEAT/INSTABILITY IN PLACE AND THE STAGE SHOULD BE SET FOR
INCREASED RAINFALL. NATURALLY THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE SCATTERED
AND QPF WILL VARY WILDLY FROM PLACE TO PLACE TO RATHER THAN
AREA-WIDE DROUGHT RELIEF ISN'T EXPECTED. TODAY AND SUNDAY'S
HIGHS WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY'S AND SO HEAT ADVISORIES ARE ONCE
AGAIN EXPECTED, THOUGH AREAS NORTH OF THE FRONT MAY HAVE
DIFFICULTY IN REACHING QUITE THE VALUES SEEN TODAY. THIS
BOUNDARY, OR WHATEVER REMAINS OF IT, WILL BE PUSHED FURTHER
SOUTH MONDAY/TUESDAY BY A SLIGHT SHARPENING OF THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH ABATING THE HEAT WHILE REMAINING CLOSE ENOUGH FOR A
HOPEFUL CONTINUATION OF HEALTHY RAIN CHANCES. BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST WE MAY BE TRANSITIONING TO ZONAL MID LEVEL FLOW,
BUILDING HEAT, AND DWINDLING RAIN PROSPECTS.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A WEAKENING FRONT WILL DROP DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND SHOULD
REMAIN THE FOCAL POINT FOR SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY THROUGH
SATURDAY, ESPECIALLY SAT LATE AFTN INTO THE EVENING. MAY SEE
A BIT OF CONVECTION OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, BUT MAINLY OFF THE COAST,
BUT GIVEN LIMITED COVERAGE WILL NOT INCLUDE A MENTION AT THIS
TIME. SLIGHT CHC OF BRIEF MVFR FOG AT INLAND TERMINALS, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW. EXPECT MVFR TO IFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN MORE
WIDESPREAD STORM COVERAGE SAT/SAT EVE. GUSTY S-SW WINDS WILL
DIMINISH INTO SATURDAY AS FRONT GETS CLOSER AND THEN WINDS
SHOULD REMAIN LIGHTER AND MORE VARIABLE AREA-WIDE AS THE
BOUNDARY MEANDERS OVERHEAD.
EXTENDED FORECAST...A SECONDARY FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BRING A
PERIOD OF WET AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDWEEK. MVFR/IFR IN
AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. PATCHY MORNING FOG AND/OR STRATUS ALSO POSSIBLE, FAVORED
WHERE HEAVY RAIN FELL THE DAY BEFORE.
MARINE
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE SETUP IS TYPICAL FOR JUNE EARLY
ON WITH A PIEDMONT TROUGH BRINGING SW WINDS AND THE BERMUDA
HIGH (WHICH IS SQUISHED TO THE SOUTH A BIT) BRINGING A MINOR SE
SWELL. A FRONT DROPPING INTO THE CAROLINAS WILL WEAKEN THE
WINDS SATURDAY WHILE A STRENGTHENING OF THE INLAND TROUGH
REVERSES THIS TREND. A SECOND REVERSAL BACK TOWARDS WEAKER FLOW
IS THEN SLATED FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD ALONG
WITH A SLIGHT VEER TO W AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES FURTHER SOUTH.
CLIMATE
HOT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND WHICH MAY REACH RECORD
HIGHS. THE HOTTEST DAY IS EXPECTED TO BE TODAY, BUT SUNDAY MAY
REACH SIMILAR LEVELS. THE HIGH TEMP RECORDS FOR EACH CLIMATE
SITE ARE PROVIDED BELOW FOR THESE DATES (JUNE 12 AND 14).
LOCATION JUN 12 JUN 14
WILMINGTON, NC: 98 (1920) 99 (1958)
LUMBERTON, NC: 103 (1911) 101 (2015)
N. MYRTLE BEACH, SC: 96 (2016) 98 (2010)
FLORENCE, SC: 97 (2022) 102 (1958)
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC......NONE.
SC......NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...RGZ
KEY MESSAGES...MBB
DISCUSSION...MBB
AVIATION...RGZ
MARINE...MBB
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