166
FXUS62 KILM 110631
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
231 AM EDT SAT APR 11 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH THIS
UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN TODAY, WITH EVEN HOTTER
WEATHER LIKELY NEXT WEEK. NO MEASURABLE RAIN IS FORECAST OVER
THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1... ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN TODAY, WITH
EVEN HOTTER WEATHER LIKELY NEXT WEEK. NO MEASURABLE RAIN IS
FORECAST OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING ALOFT WILL RESULT IN AN
INCREASINGLY WARM AND HUMID WEATHER PATTERN INTO NEXT WEEK.
AFTER TEMPS IN THE 80S TODAY, EXPECT A SLIGHT COOL DOWN WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S NEAR THE COAST AND CAPE FEAR REGION SUNDAY AS A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT NUDGES INTO THE AREA. THEREAFTER, A WARMING
TREND ENSUES WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND UPR-LEVEL
RIDGING OVER THE LOCAL AREA... TEMPS INLAND MAY NOT BE TOO FAR
FROM RECORD HIGHS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR WILL DOMINATE THIS 24 HR FCST PERIOD. ONLY POSSIBLE ISSUE
WILL BE TEMPO GROUP NEEDED FOR POSSIBLE MVFR FOG. AT THIS
POINT, HAVE ONLY INDICATED THIS OCCURRENCE AT CRE GIVEN BR A
CORRELATION TO A W TO NW AOB 4 KT WIND THIS MORNING IN SET UPS
LIKE THIS. WILL OBSERVE THIN CIRRUS AT ALL TERMINALS. IN
ADDITION, COULD SEE AFTN/EVENING FEW/SCT CU/SC/AC AT 6000 TO
7500 FT VIA LATEST GFSBUFR SOUNDINGS WHILE A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THEW NORTH AT THE END OF THIS PERIOD. W TO NW
FLOW AROUND 5 KT WILL DOMINATE THIS MORNING. ACTIVE SEA BREEZE
PUSHING INLAND THIS AFTN/EVENING WILL SWITCH THE WINDS TO THE
SE-S AT 5 TO 10 KT IN ITS WAKE.
EXTENDED FORECAST...PREDOMINANTLY VFR. BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL
REACH THE FA LATE TONIGHT THEN DISSIPATE AS IT LIFTS BACK
NORTHWARD BY MON. COULD OBSERVE PERIODIC MVFR CEILINGS DURING
THE PREDAWN SUN HRS INTO DAYTIME MORNING IN THE VICINITY OF THIS
FRONT. WINDS BACK TO THE ENE-E 10 KT SUN AS HIGH PRESSURE FROM
THE NORTH TEMPORARILY RIDGES IN.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT... HIGH PRESSURE NEARLY OVERHEAD TODAY WILL
RESULT IN W TO NW WINDS 5 TO 10 KT THIS MORNING BECOMING S 10
KT THIS AFTN AND EVENING AS THE MESOSCALE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS
AND DOMINATES THE WIND FIELD AS IT PROGRESSES INLAND. BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHWARD TODAY, REACHES/STALLS NEAR THE NC-
SC BORDER LATER TONIGHT OR EARLY SUN MORNING. LOOKING AT WINDS
BECOMING ENE-ESE 10 TO 15 KT, LIKELY CLOSER TO AROUND 15 KT
VICINITY SURF CITY BY THE END OF THIS PERIOD. SEAS GENERALLY 3
TO 4 FT CAPE FEAR NORTH AND 2 TO 3 FT SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR TO
SOUTH SANTEE RIVER. THE SLOWLY DECAYING ENE-E SWELL AT 9 TO 10
SECOND PERIODS WILL DOMINATE THE SEAS SPECTRUM THIS PERIOD, WITH
SEA BREEZE WIND CHOP THROWN ON TOP THIS AFTN/EVENING.
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... SUB-SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO
THIS PERIOD. EAST WIND 10-15 KT IS EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DROPPING INTO THE AREA, THEN BECOMING OUT OF
THE SOUTH STARTING MONDAY WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE.
SEAS IN THE 2-4 FT RANGE THIS WEEKEND WILL SUBSIDE SLIGHTLY TO
2-3 FT FROM MONDAY ONWARD. THE PRIMARY CONTRIBUTOR TO THE WAVE
SPECTRUM WILL REMAIN EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY SWELLS WITH A PERIOD
AROUND 9-10 SEC, WHILE SOUTHERLY WIND WAVES BECOME MORE
NOTICEABLE STARTING ON MONDAY IN THE 1-2 FT RANGE.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...MAS
KEY MESSAGES...MAS
DISCUSSION...MAS
AVIATION...DCH
MARINE...DCH/MAS
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