252
FXUS62 KILM 032310
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
710 PM EDT WED JUN 3 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR LOCAL COASTAL WATERS
AS CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED. AVIATION DISCUSSION HAS BEEN
UPDATED FOR 0Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGHOUT THE WEEK, WITH LARGE
TEMPERATURE RANGES BETWEEN NIGHT AND DAY.
- 2) HEAT AND HUMIDITY RETURNS NEXT WEEK WITH DAILY SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGHOUT THE WEEK, WITH
LARGE TEMPERATURE RANGES BETWEEN NIGHT AND DAY.
COOL CANADIAN AIR CONTINUES TO INFILTRATE THROUGH THE CAROLINAS,
WITH HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS HIGH
WILL SLIDE OVER INTO APPALACHIA TONIGHT, ALLOWING FOR CONTINUED
CLEAR SKIES AND WINDS TO GO CALM. THIS CREATES A NEARLY PERFECT
SCENARIO FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING, SOMETHING THAT WE USUALLY TALK
ABOUT IN MARCH OR OCTOBER. LAST NIGHT, A RAWS STATION IN BACK
ISLAND, NC RECORDED A LOW OF 42 DEGREES. TONIGHT LOOKS EVEN BETTER,
AND I WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED IF THAT STATION OR SOME OTHERS IN PARTS
OF BLADEN AND PENDER COUNTIES GET DOWN INTO THE UPPER 30S. HAPPY
JUNE.
THE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE CAROLINAS AND
OFFSHORE THURSDAY, GRADUALLY SETTING UP SOME ONSHORE FLOW. AIR MASS
MODIFICATION BEGINS AT THAT POINT, WITH TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS
RECOVERING A BIT MORE EACH DAY. HIGHS IN THE LOW-TO-MID 80S THURSDAY
BECOME THE LOWER 90S FOR MOST ON SUNDAY. LOWS RETURN TO THE UPPER
60S TO NEAR 70 BY SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE MIGHT BE JUST ENOUGH
MOISTURE RETURN, HEAT, AND INSTABILITY FOR THE SEABREEZE TO BRING IN
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM SUNDAY, BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON
THAT IDEA.
KEY MESSAGE 2
HEAT AND HUMIDITY RETURNS NEXT WEEK WITH DAILY
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, THE RIDGE OVER THE GULF AND CARIBBEAN
GETS SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH DUE TO A DEEPENING TROUGH PUSHING
THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL HELP GENERATE MORE
ORGANIZED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DURING THE AFTERNOON GOING
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. NEXT COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTH IS DUE MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR WITH CLEAR SKIES. CALM WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME LIGHT
NORTH-NORTHEASTERLIES THURSDAY, WITH AN EXCEPTION OF SOUTHEAST
WINDS AT COASTAL TERMINALS DUE TO AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE.
EXTENDED FORECAST...ASIDE FROM A LOW POTENTIAL FOR GROUND FOG
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNINGS, VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE.
MARINE
THROUGH THURSDAY...CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGH THURSDAY,
WITH A MODERATE BREEZE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST HANGING ON THROUGH
MIDDAY. AS THE AFTERNOON WEARS ON, GRADIENT WINDS WILL IMPROVE
TO A GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZE, VEERING TO THE SOUTHEAST. SEAS
WILL IMPROVE TO 2-4 FT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OUT 20 NM, UP TO
4-6 FT OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS OUT 60 NM.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...WINDS A BIT MORE VARIABLE THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY, AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO NEARLY OVERHEAD
THE WATERS. FROM THERE, GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZE SETS UP OUT OF THE
S TO SSW OVER THE WEEKEND, WITH SEAS CONTINUING TO IMPROVE TOWARDS 2-
4 FT ACROSS ALL ZONES OUT TO 60 NM.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ108.
SC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ056.
MARINE...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...VAO
KEY MESSAGES...IGB
DISCUSSION...IGB
AVIATION...VAO
MARINE...IGB
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