502
FXUS62 KILM 281007
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
607 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR THE 12Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) ELEVATED FIRE DANGER TODAY.
2) HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS INTO SUNDAY.
3) FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE INLAND TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NC COASTAL PLAIN AWAY FROM THE COAST WEST TOWARD THE SC
PEE DEE.
4) UNSETTLED WEATHER IS POSSIBLE DURING THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT
WEEK, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING THE DETAILS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...ELEVATED FIRE DANGER TODAY.
DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY BEHIND A PASSING STRONG
COLD FRONT. THESE METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS ALONG WITH DRY FINE FUEL
CONDITIONS FROM THE ONGOING DROUGHT WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASED FIRE
DANGER. A RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEAST SC AND A
FIRE DANGER STATEMENT WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEAST NC AFTER
COORDINATION WITH STATE/FEDERAL FIRE PARTNERS. THERE IS STILL A
CHANCE THAT THE FIRE DANGER STATEMENT IN NC WILL BE UPGRADED TO A
RED FLAG WARNING LATER THIS MORNING AFTER ADDITIONAL
EXAMINATION OF THE FORECAST AND COORDINATION WITH FIRE PARTNERS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS INTO SUNDAY.
SEE THE MARINE SECTION BELOW FOR DETAILS.
KEY MESSAGE 3: FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE INLAND TONIGHT,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NC COASTAL PLAIN AWAY FROM THE COAST
WEST TOWARD THE SC PEE DEE.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT LEADING
TO FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS AND WITH LITTLE TO NO CLOUDS, CONDITIONS
SHOULD BE PRETTY GOOD FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING, ESPECIALLY INLAND
(MAINLY NEAR/WEST OF I-95). THUS, WE LEANED TOWARD THE COLDER MODEL
GUIDANCE WHICH MEANS THERE IS A DECENT RISK FOR TEMPERATURES TO FALL
TO AT LEAST 32 DEGREES. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW
QUICKLY, HOW MUCH AND WHERE DECOUPLING OCCURS AS THIS WILL IMPACT
WINDS, AND THUS TEMPS AS WELL. FROST WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AWAY FROM
THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND A FROST ADVISORY COULD EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED
FOR A PORTION OF THE AREA OUTSIDE OF ANY POTENTIAL FREEZE WARNING
AREAS. THOSE WITH CONCERNS ABOUT SENSITIVE VEGETATION SHOULD MONITOR
THE FORECAST AND TAKE PROPER PRECAUTIONS.
KEY MESSAGE 4... UNSETTLED WEATHER IS POSSIBLE DURING THE
LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING THE
DETAILS.
A COMPLICATED UPPER PATTERN EVOLUTION IS EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE NEXT
WEEK. FIRST, AN UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW CROSSING THE
NORTHERN US DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK IS EXPECTED
TO LEAVE A STALLED FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. WITH ROBUST SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STATIONED
NEAR BERMUDA, EXPECT GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPS AND RISING DEW POINTS
THROUGH MIDWEEK. NEXT, A POWERFUL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY WHILE A SOUTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND RIDGE PAIR CROSS THE COUNTRY AHEAD OF
IT. THE DETAILS PERTAINING TO HOW THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH
EVOLVES, AND SUBSEQUENTLY HOW THE DOWNSTREAM PATTERN RESPONDS,
RESULTS IN LOW CONFIDENCE FOR HOW UNSETTLED THE WEATHER WILL BECOME
AS THE PLACEMENT OF THE STALLED FRONT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THESE
UPPER FEATURES. FURTHERMORE, A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
TRANSLATING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE STALLED
FRONT WILL ALSO INFLUENCE HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT SETTLES.
RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY AMONGST OPERATIONAL MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
LOW OVER THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS AND CLUSTER ANALYSIS TOOLS GENERALLY
SUPPORT A DRIER SCENARIO BEING THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME WITH THE
WETTER SCENARIO BEING THE NEXT MOST LIKELY. THUS, WHILE IT APPEARS
THE STALLED FRONT AND ITS HIGHER PRECIP AMOUNTS SHOULD STAY
NORTHWEST OF THE AREA, DAILY CHANCES FOR POP-UP SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY ENSUE FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD AS THE WARM AND HUMID
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE PATTERN SUPPORTS A MORE SUMMER-LIKE RESULT.
NEVERTHELESS, KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THE MID-LATE WEEK FORECAST AS
CONFIDENCE INCREASES WITH RESPECT TO THE FRONT'S POSITION AND
WHETHER A WETTER OUTCOME BECOMES MORE OR LESS LIKELY.
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE 12Z TAF PERIOD. A STRONG COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH EARLY THIS AM WILL BRING MVFR CIGS THRU ABOUT
14Z, MAINLY IN NC. ANY SHOWERS WILL BE LIGHT AND THUS NO BRING
ANY SIGNIFICANT VSBY RESTRICTIONS. OTHERWISE, GUSTY N WINDS UP
TO AROUND 30 KT ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
EXTENDED FORECAST...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL, ALTHOUGH THERE
WILL BE LOW CHANCES FOR MINOR RESTRICTIONS STARTING SUN AS LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE, MAINLY DUE TO EARLY MORNING
FOG/STRATUS.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD DUE TO A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
COLD ADVECTION BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT, ESPECIALLY TODAY WHEN
GALE FORCE GUSTS WILL OCCUR. WINDS WILL EASE A BIT TONIGHT BUT STILL
IN THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY RANGE. SEAS SHOULD REACH UP AROUND 7 FT
OUT TOWARD 20 NM OFFSHORE WITH LITTLE TO NO IMPROVEMENT TONIGHT DUE
TO THE MORE FAVORABLE NE FETCH.
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE PERIOD
WITH WINDS VEERING FROM NORTHEASTERLY ON SUNDAY TO
SOUTHEASTERLY ON MONDAY, THEN SOUTHERLY FROM LATE MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. SPEEDS OF 15-20KTS EARLY SUNDAY WILL DECREASE
THROUGH THE DAY, ENDING UP AROUND 10KTS OR LESS FROM SUNDAY
NIGHT ONWARD. AS MAX TEMPS ON LAND RISE ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY, EXPECT THE SEA BREEZE TO RESULT IN LOCALLY ENHANCED
WINDS NEARSHORE.
SEAS WILL BE INITIALLY IN THE 3-6 FT RANGE, BUT ON A DECLINING TREND
THROUGH SUNDAY, WITH 6 FT SEAS EXPECTED TO EXIT BY SUNSET IN
ALL 20NMI COASTAL WATER ZONES. THESE WAVES WILL BE PRIMARILY
DRIVEN BY A COMBINATION OF AN ENE SWELL WITH A PERIOD AROUND 9
SEC AND ENE WIND WAVES WITH A PERIOD AROUND 5 SEC, ALTHOUGH THE
WIND WAVES WILL SUBSIDE IN THE MORNING AS WINDS DECREASE AND THE
SWELLS WILL GRADUALLY DECLINE THROUGH THE DAY AS WELL. 2-4 FT
SEAS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH WEDNESDAY DUE
TO A PERSISTENT SOUTHEASTERLY SWELL WITH A PERIOD AROUND 7 SEC.
WIND WAVES WILL CONTRIBUTE LITTLE TO THE OVERALL WAVE SPECTRUM,
EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS SOME WIND CHOP IN NEARSHORE AREAS, WHERE THE
SEA BREEZE ENHANCES WIND SPEEDS.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
NCZ087-096-105.
SC...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
SCZ017-024.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ017-023-
024-032-033-039-054>056-058-059.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ250-252-254-
256.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...RJB/ABW
KEY MESSAGES...RJB/ABW
DISCUSSION...RJB/ABW
AVIATION...RJB
MARINE...RJB/ABW
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