476
FXUS62 KILM 301059
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
659 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2025
SYNOPSIS
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TODAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE NORTH. A STORM SYSTEM COULD IMPACT
THE AREA MID NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
UPDATED FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS ACROSS THE
TIP OF CAPE FEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE LAND BREEZE.
AVIATION DISCUSSION IS UPDATED BELOW.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
MID TO UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH A WEAK FRONT SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN BEHIND IT THROUGH TODAY.
AT THE SAME TIME, A COASTAL TROUGH TO THE SOUTH WILL HELP TO
TURN WINDS AROUND TO THE EAST AND WILL SPREAD MOISTURE NORTHWARD
AND HOLD UP THE FRONT. THE INCREASING MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE
ALONG WEAK FRONT TIS AFTERNOON WILL BE ENHANCED A BIT BY
SHORTWAVE ENERGY THIS AFTN. EXPECT ISO TO SCATTERED SHWRS OR
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTN.
THIS FRONT SHOULD LINGER ALONG THE COAST OR NEARBY AS WEAK LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE COAST TO OUR SOUTH AS SHORTWAVE RIDES BY
MOVING OFF THE COAST OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD LEAVE A A FEW SHWRS OR
TSTMS AROUND INTO TONIGHT MAINLY ALONG AND OFF THE COAST WHERE
MOISTURE AND BETTER FORCING EXIST. PCP WATER VALUES WILL BE UP OVER
1.5 INCHES ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY AND WHERE LOW DEVELOPS
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. LOOKS LIKE SOME DRIER AIR WILL BUILD IN
BEHIND THE FRONT AS HIGH PRESSURE EXERTS ITSELF FROM THE NORTH. PCP
WATER VALUES MAY DROP BACK DOWN NEAR AN INCH ACROSS INLAND NORTH AND
SOUTH CAROLINA.
TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S,
GENERALLY LOWER HEADING SOUTH INTO SOUTH CAROLINA WHERE CLOUDS WILL
BE MORE WIDESPREAD. VERY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL
BECOME MORE ONSHORE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN
THE MID 60S.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES/HIGHLIGHTS:
*NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL RAIN CHANCES
*NO SEVERE STORMS OR FLASH FLOODING EXPECTED
*BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
CONFIDENCE:
*MODERATE TO HIGH
DETAILS: NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO THE NORTH WITH A STALLED FRONT WELL
OFFSHORE. THIS WILL KEEP A PRETTY GOOD MOISTURE CONTRAST ACROSS THE
AREA FROM THE COASTAL AREAS WHERE THERE IS THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS COMPARED TO AREAS FARTHER INLAND. LOCATIONS NEAR AND WEST OF
I-95 MAY NOT SEE ANY RAINFALL DURING THIS PERIOD. INSTABILITY LOOKS
MINIMAL SO WE REMOVED MENTION OF THUNDER. TEMPS WILL STAY BELOW
NORMAL WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 80S AND LOWS GENERALLY IN
THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
KEY MESSAGES/HIGHLIGHTS:
*NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL RAIN CHANCES EARLY IN THE WEEK; POSSIBLY ABOVE
NORMAL STARTING WED
*VERY LOW RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS/FLASH FLOODING STARTING WED
*MAINLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
CONFIDENCE:
*THRU TUE NIGHT: MODERATE TO HIGH
*WED THRU FRI: MODERATE
DETAILS: A BROAD UPPER TROUGH LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE
EASTERN U.S. WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED TO OUR
NORTH THRU TUE NIGHT. BEYOND THEN THE FORECAST BECOMES MORE TRICKY
AS MUCH DEPENDS ON THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH TO
TRACK OVER OR NEAR THE AREA. THIS PATTERN SHOULD KEEP COASTAL AREAS
MORE WET THAN INLAND AREAS THROUGH TUE NIGHT BEFORE ALL AREAS
POTENTIALLY SEE SOME RAIN STARTING WED. ANOTHER COLD FRONT COULD
APPROACH LATE WEEK. TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE MOST PART,
ALTHOUGH COULD GET BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL STARTING THU.
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. EXPECT ISO
TO SCT SHRA WITH A SMALL POSSIBILITY OF A TSRA MAINLY AFTER 19-20Z
AS WEAK FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE AREA AND MOISTURE STREAMS BACK INTO
THE AREA FROM THE EAST WHILE DRIER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND FRONT
TONIGHT. INCLUDED PROB30 TO INDICATE SMALL CHC OF MVFR CEILINGS
AND/OR VSBYS DUE TO SHRA OR TSRA POSSIBLY INTO THIS EVENING.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE BEFORE BECOMING E-SE THROUGH
THIS AFTN. TRANSITIONED TO NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND FRONT, MAINLY
AFTER 03Z WITH STRATUS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...THESE CHANCES MODESTLY INCREASE EVERYDAY
THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY, WITH SCATTERED SHRA AND TSRA POSSIBLE
EACH AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT...WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW WILL BECOME MORE
VARIABLE EARLY THIS MORNING BEFORE BECOMING ONSHORE, E-SE THROUGH
THIS AFTN, REMAINING 5 TO 10 KTS. SEAS WILL REMAIN 2FT OR LESS.
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO THE
NORTH THROUGH TUE NIGHT WHILE LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE DEVELOPS
AND MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST EARLY IN THE WEEK. THE TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND LOW WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED
WINDS/SEAS WHICH WILL NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS (25 KT
AND 6 FT) STARTING SUN AND BECOME MORE LIKELY SUN NIGHT THROUGH
MON. ALTHOUGH SCA CONDITIONS ARE MARGINAL TOMORROW WE FELT
COMPELLED TO ISSUE THE ADVISORY GIVEN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND
DRASTIC CHANGE IN CONDITIONS FROM TODAY TO TRY TO INCREASE
AWARENESS. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD MOVE OVER OR NEAR
THE AREA WED.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT MONDAY
NIGHT FOR AMZ250-252-254-256.
SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...RGZ
NEAR TERM...RGZ
SHORT TERM...RJB
LONG TERM...RJB
AVIATION...RGZ
MARINE...RJB/RGZ
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