465
FXUS62 KILM 152336
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
734 PM EDT MON JUN 15 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION FOR 00Z TERMINAL FORECASTS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A BRIEF RESPITE FROM THE EXCESSIVE HEAT THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE
UNSEASONABLY HOT WEATHER RETURNS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
2) MINOR TIDAL FLOODING LIKELY DURING EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLES
THROUGH EARLY WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...A BRIEF RESPITE FROM THE EXCESSIVE HEAT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY BEFORE UNSEASONABLY HOT WEATHER RETURNS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.
DESCRIPTION... A COLD FRONT INLAND WILL PUSH TOWARD THE COAST
TONIGHT BEFORE STALLING AND SHIFTING BACK NORTHWEST TUE AND THEN
DISSIPATING WED AS ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS MORE WEST INTO THE
AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO A NICE BREAK IN THE HEAT/HUMIDITY TUE BEFORE
MORE SUMMERLIKE CONDITIONS BEGIN TO RETURN AGAIN WED. THU SHOULD BE
THE HOTTEST OVERALL WITH HEAT INDICES LIKELY SURPASSING HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA (105 DEGREES) FOR MOST OF THE AREA, ESPECIALLY
OVER SE NC AND COASTAL SC. BY FRIDAY, SHOULD SEE INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES FROM TROPICAL MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST WHICH WOULD KEEP TEMPS/HEAT INDICES DOWN A BIT. THUS, THE
RISK FOR A HEAT ADVISORY LOOKS TO BE VERY LOW, ESPECIALLY INLAND.
HOWEVER, IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY
IN THE FORECAST LATE WEEK AS MUCH DEPENDS ON THE TIMING OF A COLD
FRONT POTENTIAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH. AS OF NOW,
COOLER AND DRIER AIR THEN RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND.
KEY MESSAGE 2...MINOR TIDAL FLOODING LIKELY DURING EVENING HIGH TIDE
CYCLES THROUGH EARLY WEEK.
DESCRIPTION...HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ALONG WITH SOME LINGERING
POSITIVE TIDAL ANOMALIES WILL LIKELY LEAD TO MINOR TIDAL
FLOODING DURING EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLES INTO MID WEEK,
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE LOWER CAPE FEAR RIVER.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
OVERALL EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA THIS VALID TAF PERIOD.
WITH AN OLD FRONT IN THE AREA, EXPECT SOMEWHAT VARIABLE, LIGHT
WINDS. SEA BREEZE SHOULD RESULT IN MORE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS
NEARER THE COAST IN THE EARLY EVENING TONIGHT AND AFTERNOON TUESDAY.
ANY ISOLATED SHOWERS SHOULD BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO NOT PRODUCE MUCH IN
THE WAY OF SUB-VFR VSBY BUT THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR MVFR CIGS
COASTAL AREAS, ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN TERMINALS.
EXTENDED FORECAST...MOSTLY VFR THRU THU ALTHOUGH A WAVERING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OVER THE AREA INTO WED WILL CAUSE SOME RESTRICTIONS AT
TIMES, MAINLY TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED. AN APPROACHING STRONGER COLD
FRONT ALONG WITH TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BRING A MODERATE TO HIGH
RISK FOR RESTRICTIONS STARTING LATER THU AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY
SAT.
MARINE
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL LINGER NEAR THE COAST
INTO EARLY WED BEFORE ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE REGAINS A FOOTHOLD. A
STRONGER COLD FRONT AND POTENTIAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LATE WEEK
SHOULD BRING AT LEAST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS AND POTENTIAL
GALES, MAINLY IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS NORTH OF CAPE FEAR.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 PM TO 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
NCZ106-108-110.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM EDT
TUESDAY FOR NCZ107.
SC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 PM TO 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
SCZ054-056.
MARINE...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...31
KEY MESSAGES...RJB
DISCUSSION...RJB
AVIATION...31
MARINE...RJB
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