177
FXUS62 KILM 101059
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
659 AM EDT FRI JUL 10 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION WITH THE ISSUANCE OF THE 12Z TAFS.
ISSUANCES OF EXTREME HEAT WARNING FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES AND
HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE INLAND COUNTIES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) THE HEATWAVE WITH WIDELY SCATTERED LATE DAY CONVECTION TO
DOMINATE THE NEAR TERM.
2) RELIEF FROM THE HEAT IS IN SIGHT WITH INCREASING COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SAT AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS
A COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA.
3) HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT SOUTH-FACING BEACHES TODAY AND
SATURDAY. STRONG SOUTH TO NORTH LONGSHORE CURRENT AT EAST TO
SOUTHEAST FACING BEACHES TODAY.
4) SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THE NC COASTAL WATERS FROM
SURF CITY TO LITTLE RIVER INLET.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...THE HEATWAVE WITH ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED LATE
DAY CONVECTION TO DOMINATE THE NEAR TERM.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
MID TO UPPER 90S WILL DOMINATE TODAYS HIGHS WITH 100+ DEGREE
READINGS STILL FEASIBLE ACROSS THE FA. THE ILM AIRPORT WILL HAVE
ITS POTENTIAL 3RD CONSECUTIVE DAY TO OBSERVE 100+ DEGREE MAX
TEMPS. EVEN THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL LOCATIONS WILL OBSERVE MID 90
DEGREE READINGS. SOME MIXING DOWN OF DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL
RESULT IN MID TO UPPER 60S SFC DEWPOINTS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE
COAST THAT WILL KEEP HEAT INDICES AT OR JUST BELOW THE 105
DEGREE HEAT ADVISORY THRESHOLD. HOWEVER, THE LATEST NWS HEAT
RISK MAP ILLUSTRATES THE HIGHEST CATEGORY, EXTREME RISK, ACROSS
HALF OF THE ILM CWA. AS A RESULT, HAVE ISSUED HEAT ADVISORIES
FOR THE INLAND PORTIONS OF THE ILM CWA BASED LARGELY ON HEAT
IMPACTS. WITH MID TO UPPER 70S SFC DEWPOINTS REMAINING ACROSS
THE IMMEDIATE COAST TODAY, THIS WILL RESULT IN AFTN 110+ HEAT
INDICES WHICH WILL PROMPT ANOTHER EXTREME HEAT WARNING FOR THE
COASTAL COUNTIES TODAY.
THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP A
LID ON THE MAJORITY OF ANY CONVECTION THAT TRIES TO DEVELOP
TODAY. HOWEVER, IT DOES FLATTEN OUT WITH TIME BY LATE THIS AFTN
OR TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW CONVECTION TO DEVELOP WEST OF THE FA
AND EVENTUALLY TRACK INTO THE ILM CWA FROM THE WEST LATER TODAY
AND THIS EVENING. LOW CHANCE POPS HIGHLIGHT THIS POTENTIAL.
COULD OBSERVE MID-AFTN THRU EVENING ISOLATED CONVECTION ALONG
THE PINNED SEA BREEZE. WILL STILL HAVE A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION TO
BREAK THRU FOR THIS TO OCCUR.
KEY MESSAGE 2...RELIEF FROM THE HEAT IS IN SIGHT WITH INCREASING
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SAT AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE
AREA.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
AN UPPER PATTERN CHANGE STARTING SUN WILL HELP DRIVE A SFC COLD
FRONT SOUTHWARD, CROSSING THE AREA SUN WITH HIGH PRESSURE SLOW
TO FILL IN FROM THE NORTH THRU MID-WEEK NEXT WEEK. THE END
RESULT OF THIS CHANGE WILL BE 2 FOLD. THE 1ST WILL BE THE
INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTORMS SAT
AFTERNOON THRU EARLY MON. THIS PATTERN CHANGE INVOLVES THE
UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS PLAGUED THE FA FOR THE PAST WEEK WITH HEAT
AD HUMIDITY, WILL BE SHIFTING TO THE WEST-CENTRAL PART OF THE
U.S. AND IS EVEN PROGGED TO AMPLIFY CONSIDERABLY. WITH PLENTY
OF ANTECEDENT HEAT AND MOISTURE ALONG WITH SFC FEATURES AND WEAK
IMPULSES ALOFT, THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD CONVECTION LOOKS
GOOD ACROSS THE FA, ESPECIALLY SAT NIGHT THRU SUN NIGHT. SOME
TSTORMS POSSIBLY COULD REACH STRONG/SEVERE WITH ALSO THE
POTENTIAL FOR COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF WELL NEEDED RAINFALL TO FIGHT
THE ONGOING AND WORSENING DROUGHT. TEMPS WILL ALSO DROP
CONSIDERABLY WITH RESIDUAL LOW 90S FOR SUN HIGHS FOLLOWED BY 80S
FOR HIGHS MON AND TUE OF NEXT WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 3...HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT SOUTH-FACING
BEACHES TODAY AND SATURDAY. STRONG SOUTH TO NORTH LONGSHORE
CURRENT AT EAST TO SOUTHEAST FACING BEACHES TODAY.
KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...
BUILDING SOUTHERLY SWELL WILL LEAD TO A HIGH RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS FOR SOUTH-FACING BEACHES TODAY AND SATURDAY. CONTINUED
HOT WEATHER AND WEEKEND TIMING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASED
BEACH ATTENDANCE - BEACHGOERS SHOULD STAY OUT OF THE WATER WHERE
A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS IN EFFECT. CONDITIONS IMPROVE ON
SUNDAY AS THE SWELL WEAKENS, AND CURRENTLY A MODERATE RIP RISK
IS FORECASTED FOR SUNDAY FOR SOUTH-FACING BEACHES.
KEY MESSAGE 4...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THE NC
COASTAL WATERS FROM SURF CITY TO LITTLE RIVER INLET.
KEY MESSAGE 4 DESCRIPTION...SEE MARINE DISCUSSION SECTION.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH SCATTERED DIURNAL CU THIS
AFTERNOON. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KTS DURING THE DAY WITH
GUSTS NEAR 20 KTS, LOWERING TO 5-10 KTS TONIGHT. WIDELY
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECASTED TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST
LAST THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING, BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW
REGARDING IMPACTS TO INDIVIDUAL TERMINALS AND SO HAVE KEPT OUT
OF THE 12Z TAFS.
EXTENDED FORECAST...GENERALLY VFR AND BREEZY SW-WSW WINDS LATE
TONIGHT AND AGAIN SAT INTO SAT NIGHT. THREAT FOR PERIODIC FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS FROM SAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY MON AS A FRONTAL
SYSTEM DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE TO SLOWLY
BUILD IN TUE.
MARINE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THAT ENDED AROUND 6AM THIS MORNING FOR ALL
COASTAL WATERS HAS BEEN CANCELLED SINCE WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED-
SOME. TODAY THRU TONIGHT WILL BE NEARLY A REPEAT OF THURSDAY
DUE TO A TIGHTENED GRADIENT BETWEEN THE PIEDMONT TROF ACROSS
THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS AND THE RIDGING OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS
BEING SUPPRESSED SOUTHWARD. LOOKING AT SW-WSW, EXCEPT SSW THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITHIN 10 NM FROM THE COAST DUE TO THE SEA
BREEZE CIRCULATION. WILL SEE OCCASIONAL TO FREQUENT 25+ KT WIND
GUSTS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE ILM NC WATERS. BOTH THE ILM NC AND
SC OFFSHORE WATERS WILL OBSERVE OCCASIONAL 30 KT GUSTS EARLY
THIS MORNING THRU SAT. SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED IN THE 3 TO 5
FT RANGE TODAY THRU SAT NIGHT WITH 6 FOOTERS LIKELY FOR THE ILM
NC COASTAL WATERS AND EXTENDING OVER BOTH ILM NC AND SC OFFSHORE
WATERS. COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHWARD, CROSSING THE AREA WATERS
SUN. ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS ALL
WATERS LATER SAT THRU SUN, SLOWLY ABATING MON. LOOK FOR THE WIND
SHIFT TO NE-ENE LATE SUN AND CONTINUING THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES IN. COULD SEE A BRIEF SCA THRESHOLD NE-E
SURGE.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR NCZ087-096-099.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR NCZ105>110.
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NCZ106-108.
HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NCZ110.
SC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039-059.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR SCZ054>056-058.
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR SCZ056.
HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR SCZ054.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EDT
SATURDAY FOR AMZ250-252.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...DCH
KEY MESSAGES...DCH
DISCUSSION...DCH
AVIATION...VAO
MARINE...DCH
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