605
FXUS62 KILM 260532
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
132 AM EDT FRI APR 26 2024
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH THROUGH SATURDAY
WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. A WARMING TREND WILL DEVELOP EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS THE HIGH SHIFTS TO OFF THE SOUTHEAST US COAST.
UPDATE
MINIMAL ADJUSTMENTS WITH THE 1 AM EDT UPDATE. INCREASED SKY AS
LOW CLOUDS WORK THEIR WAY IN AND SLIGHTLY INCREASED WINDS WITH
THE NE SURGE.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
BENIGN WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES IN
FROM THE NORTH AND NW FLOW PERSISTS ALOFT. JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE
FOR SOME CUMULUS THIS AFTN, BUT RAIN IS KEPT OUT OF THE FORECAST
EXCEPT FOR PENDER COUNTY (ONLY 20% CHANCE). SOME LOW CLOUDS
EXPECTED TONIGHT ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST WITH MOISTER WEAK
ONSHORE FLOW. TEMPS TONIGHT RIGHT AT CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS FOR
LATE APRIL...LOWS IN THE MID 50S. CONTINUED DRY INTO FRIDAY WITH
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW WHICH MEANS
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS THAN TODAY...HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 70S MOST
AREAS.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
MID-UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE HEADING INTO THIS WEEKEND. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL TO THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT SHIFTS
OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY, WITH A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH
OFF OUR COAST SATURDAY MORNING. INCREASED CLOUDS FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY IN RESPONSE TO COASTAL TROUGH AND WEAK IMPULSES
ALOFT. ONSHORE FLOW, FROM THE SURFACE UP TO 850MB, WILL KEEP
HIGH TEMPS SATURDAY SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN THE UPPER 70S AND
LOW TEMPS NEAR NORMAL IN THE MID 50S.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
DEEP RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE, WITH CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTING TO OFF OUR COAST SUNDAY AND LINGERING OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE SHIFT OF LOW LEVEL
WINDS TO SOUTHERLY AND THEN SOUTHWESTERLY WILL KICK OFF A
WARMING TREND AND PUSH TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL FOR NEXT WEEK. AREA
REMAINS DRY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH DECENT SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. UPPER
RIDGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN LATE TUESDAY AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES
MOVE ACROSS THE US/CANADA BORDER. COMBINATION OF WARM TEMPS, SEA
BREEZE, INCREASED DEWPOINTS, WEAKENED SUBSIDENCE, AND AN INLAND
SURFACE TROUGH MID WEEK, WE COULD SEE AFTERNOON POPCORN
CONVECTION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
AREA ON THURSDAY, THOUGH TOO FAR OUT FOR MODELS TO AGREE ON
TIMING, STRENGTH, ETC OF FRONT.
AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO PUSH INLAND ALONG THE COAST THIS
MORNING. EXPECTING SOME OF THIS TO PUSH INLAND, BUT CONFIDENCE
IS LOW IN THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR/IFR HERE. RESTRICTIONS, IF THEY
DEVELOP ARE LIKELY TO BE BRIEF. ALONG THE COAST, NE FLOW SHOULD
MAINTAIN LOW CLOUDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING. HIGH SUN
ANGLES AND MIXING SHOULD ALLOW CLOUDS TO DIMINISH DURING THE
AFTERNOON. VFR TO FOLLOW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK OUTSIDE OF A CHANCE OF MORNING FOG THIS WEEKEND.
MARINE
THROUGH FRIDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH SFC HIGH
PRESSURE OFF TO THE NORTH. AN UPTICK IN THE ENE FLOW IS EXPECTED
STARTING THIS EVENING, BUT ONLY UP TO 15-20 KT, CONTINUING
THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW THE 2-3 FT SEAS TODAY TO
BUILD TO 3-4 FT FOR FRIDAY, MAINLY DRIVEN BY INCREASING
EASTERLY 5-6 SECOND WAVES.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ONSHORE FLOW FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT SHIFTS TO SOUTHERLY SUNDAY AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED EAST OF NC. WINDS BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY
FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK AS THE CENTER OF THE OFFSHORE
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FURTHER SOUTHWARD. WITH A WARMING TREND
KICKING IN LATE THIS WEEKEND, WILL CERTAINLY SEE SEA BREEZE
INFLUENCE NEAR THE COASTS EACH AFTERNOON. SEAS 3-4 FT FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT LOWERS TO 2-3 FT SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY AS NORTHEASTERLY COMPONENT WEAKENS, BEING REPLACED BY AN
EASTERLY FRESH SWELL AND WEAK WIND CHOP EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...21
NEAR TERM...MAS
SHORT TERM...VAO
LONG TERM...VAO
AVIATION...21
MARINE...MAS/VAO
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