060
FXUS62 KILM 110736
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
336 AM EDT FRI OCT 11 2024
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE NORTH BRINGING COOL, DRY
WEATHER OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA
LATE MONDAY, FOLLOWED BY DRY HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
CLEAR SKIES AND COOL TEMPERATURES IN STORE THROUGH TONIGHT
COURTESY OF EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN US. WILL
SEE A FEW LIGHT GUSTS JUST AFTER SUNRISE WINDS DIE DOWN BY
MIDDAY AS CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OVERHEAD. HIGH TEMPS IN
THE LOW 70S THIS AFTERNOON. LOW TEMPS TONIGHT ARE A BIT
TRICKIER, BUT GIVEN EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS AND
PREVAILING HIGH PRESSURE THE FORECAST IS ON THE LOW SIDE OF
GUIDANCE. CURRENT FORECAST HAS 45F AND BELOW TONIGHT (AROUND 50
NEAR IMMEDIATE COASTLINE), WITH TRADITIONAL COOL SPOTS DROPPING
TO NEAR 40F. UPPER 30S MAY BE POSSIBLE IN SOME OF OUR COLDEST
LOCATIONS, SUCH AS HOLLY SHELTER IN PENDER COUNTY.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
CONTINUED DRY, COOL CONDITIONS THIS PERIOD WITH SFC HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OFF TO THE NORTH. EXPECT A SUNNY/CLEAR SKY
WITH LIGHT WIND. HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID 70S SAT WITH LOWS SAT
NIGHT IN THE UPR 40S TO MID 50S.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VERY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE DURATION OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. AFOREMENTIONED SFC HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE SUN
INTO MON ALLOWING FOR A SMALL WARMUP WITH SW FLOW...HIGHS IN THE
LOW/MID 80S. A COLD FROPA IS THEN PROGGED FOR LATE MON, BUT
WILL KEEP POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT DUE TO VERY DRY
PROFILES, BUT SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE. POST-FRONTAL CAA WILL
LEAD TO A COOLER NEXT FEW DAYS, WITH FORECAST HIGHS ONLY IN THE
60S TUE THROUGH THU.
AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR. LIGHT WINDS REMAIN OUT OF THE NNE, WITH GUSTS OF 10-15 KTS
AFTER SUNRISE THROUGH ABOUT 16Z BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OVERHEAD AND WINDS WEAKEN.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT...GUSTY NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE LOCAL
COASTAL WATERS WILL BE WEAKENING THIS MORNING AS CENTER OF HIGH
PRESSURE INLAND SHIFTS OVERHEAD, WITH WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS
EXPECTED BY THIS EVENING. SEAS CURRENTLY AT 5-8 FT WILL LOWER TO
4-6 FT THIS MORNING AS ENE SWELL CONTINUES TO WEAKEN.
CONDITIONS WILL BE SUB-ADVISORY BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
WITH SEAS CONTINUING TO LOWER TO 2-4 FT BY SATURDAY MORNING.
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...LIGHT WINDS SAT AND SUN WITH SFC HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDING OFFSHORE. A DRY COLD FROPA IS EXPECTED LATE
MON WITH GUSTS UP TO 20-25 KT AND 3-5 FT SEAS, SLIGHTLY LOWERING
INTO TUE BUT REMAINING SOMEWHAT ELEVATED DUE TO CONTINUED WEAK
CAA. NO HEADLINES ANTICIPATED ATTM.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EDT
THIS EVENING FOR NCZ107.
SC...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS FROM 6 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
EVENING FOR SCZ056.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ250-
252-254-256.
SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...VAO
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...VAO
MARINE...MAS/VAO
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