362
FXUS62 KILM 031758
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
158 PM EDT FRI APR 3 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
FORECAST RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE INCREASED SLIGHTLY SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY EVENING. OTHERWISE, NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN
MADE TO THE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) UNSEASONABLE WARMTH CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
2) CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PEAK SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
3) MUCH COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...UNSEASONABLE WARMTH CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP IN WARMER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE LOW TO MID 80S AWAY FROM THE COOLER COASTAL AREAS WITH LOWS
GENERALLY AROUND 60 TONIGHT AND LOW TO MID 60S SAT NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 2...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PEAK
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
MODELS HAVE BEEN EXTRAORDINARILY CONSISTENT OVER THE PAST FIVE DAYS
WITH THEIR TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT REACHING THE EASTERN CAROLINAS
SUNDAY NIGHT. LATEST GFS/ECMWF BLENDS SUGGEST THE FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS I-95 PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT, THEN REACH THE BEACHES
BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 3 AM.
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS IL/IN DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY SHOULD REACH THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL BREAK DOWN THE PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE EAST COAST
AND WILL BRIEFLY TURN OUR MID LEVEL FLOW SOUTHWESTERLY,
ADVECTING IN A RIBBON OF DEEP MOISTURE OFF THE GULF. TODAY'S
MODELS HAVE ACTUALLY REVERSED THE DRYING TREND WE SAW YESTERDAY
AND NOW SHOW PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMBING ABOVE 1.6 INCHES
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, PERHAPS FEEDING INTO A LITTLE
BETTER RAINFALL POTENTIAL TOO.
DAYTIME HEATING AHEAD OF THE FRONT SUNDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD HELP
DEVELOP CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH MAY PERSIST UP
UNTIL THE FRONT'S ARRIVAL SUNDAY NIGHT. HELICITY VALUES DO NOT LOOK
IMPRESSIVE AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR ONLY INCREASES TO AROUND 25 KT.
THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY PLUS SHEAR TO ORGANIZE
MULTICELLS, BUT DOESN'T ARGUE FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER WITH JET
DYNAMICS LIKELY REMAINING DISPLACED TO THE NORTH. OUR BEST CASE
SCENARIO IS THAT WAVES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS CAN HELP VERIFY STORM-
TOTAL RAINFALL PREDICTIONS OF 0.25 TO 0.50 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA.
THAT'S NOT ENOUGH TO REALLY ALLEVIATE DROUGHT ACROSS THE CAROLINAS,
BUT IT MAY SLOW FURTHER DEGRADATION NEXT WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 3...MUCH COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NEXT WEEK.
AFTER WHAT MIGHT BE SIX CONSECUTIVE DAYS OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPS,
A NEW AIRMASS ARRIVES BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY. MONDAY'S HIGHS
MAY HAVE TROUBLE REACHING 70 DEGREES FOR PARTS OF THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES
IN FROM THE NORTH.
A SHORTWAVE ZIPPING RAPIDLY EASTWARD THROUGH NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY
SHOULD PUSH A REINFORCING COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CAROLINAS
TUESDAY NIGHT. CONFLUENT UPPER LEVEL FLOW BEHIND THE DEPARTING
SHORTWAVE WILL REINVIGORATE THE CANADIAN HIGH TO OUR NORTH WEDNESDAY
WHEN BOTH THE CANADIAN AND GFS SHOW A 1040 MB SURFACE PRESSURE AT
ITS CENTER. A RENEWED PUSH OF COLD AIR MOVING DOWN THE EAST
COAST MAY KEEP OUR WEDNESDAY HIGHS IN THE MID 60S, ABOUT 6-10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE 2ND WEEK OF APRIL.
LOW TEMPS MON, TUE, AND WED NIGHTS WILL LIKELY END UP IN THE 40S.
SOME NORMALLY COLDER SPOTS ACROSS INTERIOR SE NORTH CAROLINA
SHOULD DIP INTO THE 30S. FOR WHAT IT'S WORTH NBM PROBABILISTIC
DATA FOR 36 DEGREE LOW TEMPS (FROST?) SHOWS A 10-15 PERCENT
POTENTIAL IN BURGAW, NC BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS NEXT
WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SE NC AND NE SC, ALTHOUGH A LOW TO
MODERATE RISK FOR RESTRICTIONS DUE TO LOW CLOUDS/SHOWERS/POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TODAY AT THE INLAND TERMINALS (KLBT/KFLO).
THERE IS ALSO A LOW TO MODERATE RISK FOR RESTRICTIONS LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY DUE TO LOW CLOUDS/FOG, MAINLY INLAND AT
KLBT/KFLO.
EXTENDED FORECAST...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SAT AFTN THRU
EARLY SUN AND AGAIN LATE SUN NIGHT THRU TUE. A MODERATE TO HIGH RISK
FOR RESTRICTIONS COMES LATE SUN INTO SUN NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH WITH SHOWERS/STORMS.
MARINE
THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH NO SIGNIFICANT MARINE ISSUES
EXPECTED WITH A MORE SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN IN PLACE WITH HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OFFSHORE. SOUTHERLY WINDS MOSTLY 10 KT OR LESS AND SEAS UP
TO 4 FT ARE ANTICIPATED. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A RISK
FOR SEA FOG BUT THINK CHANCES WILL STAY PRETTY LOW AS DEWPOINTS
AREN'T TOO MUCH GREATER THAN WATER TEMPS.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS WE'VE ENJOYED FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS WILL BE REPLACED BY
STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST WINDS ON SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. INCREASING GULF MOISTURE SHOULD FUEL CLUSTERS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT, ENDING WHEN THE FRONT FINALLY MOVES OFFSHORE AFTER
MIDNIGHT. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS WE MAY STAY BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS AS PRE-FRONTAL WINDS TOP OUT IN THE 15-20 KT
RANGE WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 4-5 FEET.
BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY MORNING THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF BREEZY
NORTHEAST WINDS THAT COULD REACH 20-25 KT AT TIMES, PARTICULARLY FOR
THE WATERS EAST OF CAPE FEAR AND EAST OF WINYAH BAY. THERE SHOULD BE
A SHORT WINDOW FOR SUCH WINDS AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
TOWARD THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON LEADS TO WINDS FALLING TO 10-15 KT
THEN.
LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE TUESDAY AS A
SECONDARY SURGE OF COOL CANADIAN AIR WORKS ITS WAY SOUTH INTO THE
CAROLINAS. WIND SPEEDS MAY INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
ODDS INCREASING WE'LL GET TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS
(25+ KT WINDS AND 6+ FOOT SEAS) BEFORE DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...TRA
KEY MESSAGES...TRA/RJB
DISCUSSION...TRA/RJB
AVIATION...RJB
MARINE...TRA/RJB
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