938
FXUS62 KILM 211021
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
620 AM EDT WED OCT 21 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATE FOR THE 12Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A DEEP LAYER OF NORTHERLY WINDS WILL MAINTAIN A DRY CANADIAN
AIRMASS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...A DEEP LAYER OF NORTHERLY WINDS WILL MAINTAIN A
DRY CANADIAN AIRMASS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
PERSISTENT NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE CAROLINAS BETWEEN
A RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND DEEPENING 999 MB LOW
PRESSURE ALMOST 400 MILES EAST OF THE VIRGINIA COAST. THIS LOW
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DRIFTING NORTH THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE
BEING SHUNTED AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST FOR THE WEEKEND. WITH HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER LOCALLY, DRY WEATHER, CLEAR
SKIES, AND GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
CHANGES TO NBM BLENDS MAINLY CENTERED ON WIDENING DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE RANGES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS (ADDING 1-2
DEGREES TO HIGHS AND SUBTRACTING A BIT FROM LOWS) AND LOWERING
DAYTIME DEWPOINTS BY UP TO 6 DEGREES F.
NEW CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
LATE THIS WEEK. AS THE HIGH MOVES SOUTH THIS WEEKEND, OUR WIND
DIRECTIONS MAY VEER EASTERLY ENOUGH TO BRING MORE HUMIDITY ONSHORE,
BUT WITH SUFFICIENT RIDGING CONTINUING ALOFT TO MAINTAIN DRY
WEATHER. RECENT MODELS SHOW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP OFFSHORE WHERE
HIGHER DEWPOINTS WILL PROMOTE SMALL CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY
BENEATH THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ALOFT.
AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR WITH CLEAR SKIES AND NORTHERLY WINDS THAT WILL INCREASE AFTER
SUNRISE ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. BREEZY
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS COULD GUST TO 25 KNOTS AT TIMES FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY.
MARINE
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...999 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ALMOST 400
MILES EAST OF NORFOLK, VA SHOULD DRIFT NORTHWARD ALONG 70
DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE THROUGH THURSDAY. RECENT MODELS SUGGEST
THE LOW SHOULD DEEPEN BY ANOTHER 10-15 MILLIBARS DURING THAT
TIME, BUT INCREASING DISTANCE FROM THE CAROLINAS MEANS IT SHOULD
HAVE DIMINISHING INFLUENCE ON OUR WEATHER CONDITIONS.
NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AT 15-20 KNOTS THIS MORNING SHOULD
DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON AND GENERALLY REMAIN 15 KNOTS OR LESS
THROUGH THURSDAY. A CONSIDERABLE 11-SECOND NORTHEASTERLY
BACKSWELL STILL PRESENT CURRENTLY SHOULD DIMINISH IN HEIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY, LEADING TO SLOWLY IMPROVING MARINE WEATHER
CONDITIONS.
A NEW AREA OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO NOSE SOUTH
ALONG THE EAST COAST FRIDAY WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO A TIGHTER
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS FOR THE
WEEKEND. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS
THE COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY, AND THERE IS AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL
FOR GUSTS TO GALE FORCE ACROSS THE OFFSHORE FORECAST ZONES
(20-60 MILES OFFSHORE) BEGINNING FRIDAY NIGHT.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 6 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH
THIS EVENING FOR NCZ108.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ250-
252.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...TRA
KEY MESSAGES...TRA
DISCUSSION...TRA
AVIATION...MBB
MARINE...TRA
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