452
FXUS62 KILM 212349
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
749 PM EDT TUE APR 21 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION DISCUSSION HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THE 00Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR DOWNTOWN WILMINGTON
LATE TONIGHT.
- 2) ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THIS
WEEK DUE TO VERY DRY CONDITIONS AND SEVERE TO EXTREME DROUGHT.
FIRE DANGER STATEMENT IN EFFECT WEDNESDAY.
- 3) COLD FRONT THIS WEEKEND FINALLY BRINGS THE FIRST
APPRECIABLE RAIN CHANCES SEEN IN AWHILE.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR DOWNTOWN
WILMINGTON LATE TONIGHT.
ANOMALOUS HIGH TIDE VALUES WILL REACH MINOR COASTAL FLOODING
THRESHOLDS LATE TONIGHT ALONG THE LOWER CAPE FEAR RIVER, INCLUDING
DOWNTOWN WILMINGTON. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THIS AREA
FROM 1 AM EDT UNTIL 4 AM EDT.
THE LOWEST PORTIONS OF USS NORTH CAROLINA ROAD AND BATTLESHIP ROAD
BEGIN TO OBSERVE MINOR COASTAL FLOODING. WATER BEGINS TO SPREAD OUT
OF STORM DRAINS ONTO WATER STREET JUST SOUTH OF MARKET STREET IN
DOWNTOWN WILMINGTON.
KEY MESSAGE 2
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF
THIS WEEK DUE TO VERY DRY CONDITIONS AND SEVERE TO EXTREME DROUGHT.
FIRE DANGER STATEMENT IN EFFECT WEDNESDAY.
SEVERE DROUGHT CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA, WHILE THE BURN BAN IS
ONGOING IN BOTH OF THE CAROLINAS UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. TO COMPOUND
IT ALL, GRADIENT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WEDNESDAY KICK UP TOWARDS 10-15
MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH. MEANWHILE, DIURNAL MIXING WILL ALLOW RH
VALUES TO DIP DOWN INTO THE 25-30% RANGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS MEETS THE CRITERIA FOR A FIRE DANGER
STATEMENT, WHICH GOES INTO EFFECT FROM 11 AM EDT UNTIL 7 PM EDT.
NO OPEN BURNING ALLOWED, PER STATE LAW.
KEY MESSAGE 3
COLD FRONT THIS WEEKEND FINALLY BRINGS THE FIRST
APPRECIABLE RAIN CHANCES SEEN IN AWHILE.
A COLD FRONT WITH PLENTIFUL SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALOFT WILL BRING SOME
OF THE BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN WE'VE SEEN IN THE LAST TWO WEEKS OR
SO. FORECAST GUIDANCE IS STARTING TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THIS
TIME AROUND, WITH THE BULK OF THE RAIN DUE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK A BIT BETTER THAN THEY DID 24 HOURS AGO, BUT
STILL NO DROUGHT BUSTER BY ANY MEANS. THE NBM FORECAST SUITE STILL
DELIVERS ABOUT A 50% CHANCE OF AT LEAST 0.5" TOWARDS THE END OF THE
WEEKEND. BETTER THAN EXPECTED INITIALLY, BUT STILL NOT IMPRESSIVE.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE GOES DOWN IN ANY HIGHER AMOUNTS. SOME AREAS MAY
GET LUCKY WITH AROUND AN INCH OR SO, BUT I CERTAINLY WOULDN'T COUNT
ON IT.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. ONLY FM GROUPS NEEDED WILL BE
TO ADDRESS TONIGHT'S LT/VAR WINDS BECOMING SW AND GUSTY IN
TOMORROW'S HEATING OF THE DAY.
EXTENDED FORECAST...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY.
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE SATURDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
MARINE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL VEER AROUND THIS AFTERNOON INTO WED
AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OFFSHORE. NE WINDS AROUND 15 KTS WILL
BECOME SE TO S BY TONIGHT AND THEN WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SW BY
TOMORROW AFTN AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN TROUGH INLAND AND HIGH
OFFSHORE. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT WILL BE DIMINISHING INTO EARLY WED AS
WINDS DROP OFF, BUT WILL INCREASE AGAIN STARTING WED AFTN TO 3 TO 4
FT MOST WATERS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZE CONTINUES
FROM THE SOUTHWEST FOR MUCH OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT, GRADUALLY VEERING
TOWARDS THE WEST BY THURSDAY MORNING. GRADIENT WINDS LOOSEN UP A BIT
BY MIDDAY THURSDAY, COMING BACK TO A SOUTHWESTERLY WIND THAT LINGERS
RIGHT AT A GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. SEAS
HANG IN THE 2-4 FT RANGE THROUGHOUT THIS TIME. MODERATE BREEZE VEERS
TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY WITH THE NEXT FRONTAL
PASSAGE. SEAS COME UP AS A RESULT, FROM 2-4 FT OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS OUT 20 NM TO 5-7 FT ALONG THE OFFSHORE WATERS OUT 60 NM.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 4 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
NCZ107.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...ILM
KEY MESSAGES...IGB
DISCUSSION...IGB
AVIATION...MBB
MARINE...RGZ/IGB
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