145
FXUS62 KILM 281859
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
259 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH THIS
UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) PERIODIC CHANCES OF RAIN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH NEAR
NORMAL TEMPS AND NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IMPACTS ANTICIPATED.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...PERIODIC CHANCES OF RAIN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS AND NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IMPACTS
ANTICIPATED.
A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTN AND
EVENING IN CONJUNCTION WITH A WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN
ARE POSSIBLE, BUT STORM MOTIONS AND LIMITED WIDESPREAD HEAVY
RAINFALL THE LAST FEW DAYS WILL HELP KEEP THE FLOODING POTENTIAL
VERY LOW. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD DRY WEATHER FOR FRIDAY
WITH THE FRONT OFF TO THE SOUTH AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
IN FROM THE NORTH. A LOWER CONFIDENCE FORECAST THEREAFTER FOR
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THERE CONTINUES TO BE A
FAIR AMOUNT OF MODEL DISAGREEMENT OVER WHERE THE NORTHERN EDGE
TO THE PRECIP IS AS THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT TRIES TO NUDGE
BACK NORTHWARD, BEFORE ANOTHER FRONT DROPS SOUTH THROUGH THE
AREA IN TANDEM WITH AN UPR-LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING OVER THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. FOLLOWING A MAINLY DRY SUNDAY, NEAR CLIMO POPS ARE IN
STORE FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
WITHOUT THE SEABREEZE WE'RE SEEING LOWER COVERAGE THAN
ANTICIPATED WITH AFTERNOON STORMS, AND IT LOOKS LIKE THE
INCOMING FRONT WILL BE THE MAIN DRIVER FOR ACTIVITY INTO THE
LATTER HALF OF THE DAY. SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD COME TO AN END BY
00Z WITH N/NW WINDS BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. NO RESTRICTIONS
ANTICIPATED FOR TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AT THIS TIME AS THE FRONT
DROPS SOUTH OF US AND DRY AIR BUILDS IN.
EXTENDED FORECAST...THE FRONT WILL PULL BACK NORTH LEADING TO
MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE SATURDAY WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES.
MVFR/IFR AT TIMES FROM SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS
DURING MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
MARINE
THROUGH FRIDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE OVER THE
WATERS TONIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. NE WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SURGE OVERNIGHT WITH ~20 KT GUSTS. WINDS
WILL BECOME MORE SE FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH AN AFTERNOON
SEABREEZE. SEAS LARGELY 3-4 FT.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...LIGHT WINDS MAINLY OUT OF THE
SOUTH FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY BEFORE THE NEXT COLD FRONT
DROPS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH NOT A GUARANTEE,
CONFIDENCE IS NOW HIGHER FOR SCA CONDITIONS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY, MAINLY FOR GUSTS UP TO 25-30 KT WITH A
SMALLER CHANCE FOR 6 FT SEAS OUT 20 NM. CONFIDENCE IN NEEDING A
HEADLINE IS ABOUT 75% AT THIS POINT. GUSTS WILL STAY BELOW GALE
FORCE SO NO GALE WARNING WILL BE NEEDED OVER THE 20-60 NM ZONES.
IMPROVING MARINE CONDITIONS THEREAFTER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...ILM
KEY MESSAGES...ILM
DISCUSSION...ILM
AVIATION...MAS
MARINE...MAS/LEW
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