243
FXUS62 KILM 090931
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
531 AM EDT FRI OCT 9 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 12Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING AND SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST.
2) HAZARDOUS SURF CONDITIONS AND TIDAL FLOODING ARE LIKELY THIS
WEEKEND.
3) HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1... HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY
SUNDAY. ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING AND SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST.
HURRICANE ISAIAS IS CURRENTLY MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE GULF
AND EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL FRIDAY. ACROSS THE CAROLINAS,
SOUNDING DATA CONTINUES TO SHOW VERY DRY AIR THROUGH THE LOW TO
MID LEVELS THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT. TROPICAL MOISTURE LIFTING
NORTHWARD ON SATURDAY WILL EVENTUALLY WORK THROUGH A STUBBORN
DRY LAYER WITH HEAVY RAIN DEVELOPING BY SATURDAY EVENING FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH. SOUNDINGS SHOW MOISTURE WORKING ITS WAY DOWNWARD
THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERE WITH THICKENING CLOUDS THROUGH SAT
MORNING AND INCREASING CHC OF PCP FROM SOUTH TO NORTH BY MID TO
LATE MORNING. MODELS MAY BE A BIT QUICK ON PCP ONSET, BUT THERE
WILL BE INCREASING CHC OF SOME DECENT RAIN SAT AFTN AND EVENING.
LATEST WPC QPF BRINGS 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAINFALL FOR COASTAL
AREAS WITH LOWER AMOUNTS AS YOU MOVE WESTWARD. THERE SHOULD BE
SOME LOCALIZED GREATER AMOUNTS AND THEREFORE ISOLATED FLASH
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN OUR LARGER COASTAL
COMMUNITIES AND AROUND A HIGHER-THAN-NORMAL HIGH TIDE ON LATE
SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY.
ONSHORE FLOW ALSO BRINGS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER,
MAINLY SATURDAY NIGHT, LESS SO INTO EARLY SUNDAY. WEAK
INSTABILITY IN THE LOW LEVELS AND EFFECTIVE HELICITY MAY SUPPORT
A FEW ONSHORE-MOVING WATERSPOUTS ON SATURDAY NIGHT. CONFIDENCE
IS LOW AT THIS TIME DUE TO POOR INSTABILITY AND RELATIVE
DISTANCE FROM THE STORM CENTER. WINDS TURN SOUTHERLY ON SUNDAY,
BUT ACTIVITY BECOMES MORE ISOLATED WITH THE ADDITION OF DRY AIR.
THIS COULD SLIGHTLY ENHANCE INSTABILITY NEAR THE END OF THE
EVENT, EARLY SUNDAY.
ISAIAS WILL MERGE INTO THE BACKGROUND 500 MB FLOW ON SUNDAY.
DRY AIR BUILDING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON MAY
PUSH A TROUGH THROUGH THE CAROLINAS WITH SOME ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. THE LATEST FORECAST EXTENDS
RAIN CHANCES INTO SUNDAY EVENING, BUT OVERALL RAIN CHANCES
SHOULD DIMINISH THROUGH SUNDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2... HAZARDOUS SURF CONDITIONS AND TIDAL FLOODING
ARE LIKELY THIS WEEKEND.
INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW THIS WEEKEND COMBINING WITH HIGH
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL PRODUCE ROUGH SURF, STRONG RIP
CURRENTS, AND LEAD TO MINOR COASTAL FLOODING FOR ALL AREA
BEACHES.
DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ARE EXPECTED AS ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES
LATE TODAY, PEAKING ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. BREAKING WAVES IN
EXCESS OF 5 FEET ARE POSSIBLE AND WILL PRODUCE DANGEROUS SURF IN
COMBINATION WITH STRONG LONGSHORE CURRENTS. A HIGH SURF
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR SATURDAY. LINGERING ROUGH SURF IS
ALSO POSSIBLE ON MONDAY, EVEN AS WINDS TURN WESTERLY. BEACH
EROSION IS ALSO POSSIBLE DURING EACH HIGH TIDE CYCLE ON SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY.
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALONG THE LOWER
CAPE FEAR RIVER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK DUE TO A
COMBINATION OF ONSHORE WINDS AND THE NEW MOON. WATER LEVELS
WILL INCREASE THIS WEEKEND, BUT SHOULD REMAIN WITHIN MINOR FLOOD
LEVELS. THE MOST IMPACTFUL HIGH TIDES ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY
EVENING, SUNDAY MORNING, AND SUNDAY EVENING. AREA BEACHES ARE
ALSO EXPECTED TO EXPERIENCE MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WITH THESE
TIDAL CYCLES. THE SATURDAY EVENING HIGH TIDE IS LIKELY TO BE THE
MOST IMPACTFUL FOR THESE AREAS, BUT EACH HIGH TIDE CYCLE HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE MINOR FLOODING.
KEY MESSAGE 3... HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THIS
WEEKEND.
SEE MARINE SECTION.
AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR WITH SOME STRONGER NE WINDS AFTER SUNRISE 5-10 KTS. HIGH
CLOUDS WILL THICKEN WITH SLOWLY LOWERING CEILINGS LATE TONIGHT,
STARTING AT COASTAL TERMINALS FIRST. MVFR CIGS WITH
LIGHT/MODERATE SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE 06Z ONWARDS WITH LOWEST
CHANCE OF RESTRICTIONS AT KLBT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS DUE TO LOW CIGS ARE
LIKELY STARTING EITHER SATURDAY OR EARLY SUNDAY AS TROPICAL
MOISTURE FROM ISAIAS WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE AREA. VIS
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES IN HEAVY RAIN, MAINLY FOR
COASTAL TERMINALS FROM LATE SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. VFR
SHOULD RETURN AS DRY AIR FILTERS IN LATE SUNDAY OR ON MONDAY.
MARINE
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
TO THE NORTH BUILDS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. THE GRADIENT WILL
TIGHTEN LATE TODAY AS ISAIAS MAKES LANDFALL ALONG THE GULF
COAST. A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED, STARTING EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING, AS A RAPID INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS IS EXPECTED. SCA
CONDITIONS DEVELOP PRIOR TO THE BEGINNING OF THE GALE WATCH, BUT
THIS PERIOD OF TIME APPEARS TO BE SHORT ENOUGH TO FORGO THE SCA
FOR NOW. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER IN SC NEARSHORE WATERS DEPENDING
ON THE LOCATION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
LATEST WIND PROBS FAVOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SUSTAINED GALES AND
GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS MAINLY LATE SATURDAY.
WINDS AND SEAS PROGRESS QUICKLY WITH THE NORTHWARD MOVING FRONT
AND ASSOCIATED GRADIENT. SCA CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN FOR THE
NEARSHORE WATERS AS GALES DIMINISH INTO LATE SATURDAY AND
OFFSHORE GALES SHOULD END BY EARLY SUNDAY. SEAS WILL BUILD
RAPIDLY ON SATURDAY TO 6 TO 8 FEET FOR NEARSHORE AREAS AND 8 TO 10
FEET OFFSHORE BY LATE SATURDAY. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN HIGHEST IN
NORTHERN WATERS NORTH OF CAPE FEAR AND OFFSHORE.
SOUTHERLY FLOW REMAINS ELEVATED THROUGH MONDAY AS THE SURFACE
LOW SLOWLY LIFTS TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC AND A POST-FRONTAL
GRADIENT DEVELOPS. SEAS MAY CONTINUE TO EXCEED 6 FEET THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ107.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
FOR AMZ250-252-254-256.
GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
AMZ280-284.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...ILM
KEY MESSAGES...RGZ/21
DISCUSSION...RGZ/21
AVIATION...LEW/RGZ
MARINE...RGZ/21
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