598
FXUS62 KILM 091805
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
205 PM EDT SUN AUG 9 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO FORECAST THINKING. UPDATE FOR 18Z
AVIATION DISCUSSION.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL SHIFT FROM THE SC
LOWCOUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON BACK INTO NORTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA
AND SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA INTO MONDAY.
2) DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, BUT WITH
INCREASING TEMPERATURES AND POTENTIAL FOR THE HEAT INDEX TO EXCEED
105 DEGREES.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...MID LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS THE DOMINANT FEATURE
ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. SMALL CHANCES FOR CONVECTION
SOUTHERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE LIMITED.
HEIGHT FALLS WITH AN APPROACHING FRONT/TROUGH/SEA BREEZE
INCREASE CHANCES ACROSS ALL AREAS MONDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED IN THE PREVAILING
NORTHWEST FLOW ALLOWING HEAT INDEX VALUES TO INCREASE TO
POSSIBLE HEADLINE CRITERIA. THIS IS PREDICATED ON A MOSTLY DRY
FORECAST WHICH IS LOW CONFIDENCE THIS TIME OF YEAR, ESPECIALLY
SEVERAL DAYS IN A ROW. SHORTER DAYLIGHT HOURS MAKE IT MORE
DIFFICULT FOR EXCESSIVE HEAT AS DOES THE EVER PRESENT
COMPLICATION OF DRY AIR MIXING DOWN EACH DAY.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD OUTSIDE ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND STORMS. HIGHEST PROBABILITY LOOKS TO BE FLO WHERE A
PROB30 GROUP WAS INCLUDED IN THE TERMINAL. ST/FG POTENTIAL
OVERNIGHT IS TOO LOW FOR INCLUSION IN THE FORECAST ATTM BUT
INLAND AREAS WOULD BE THE FOCUS AGAIN IF IT HAPPENS.
EXTENDED FORECAST...BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY. COVERAGE APPEARS IT
MAY BE LOWER TUESDAY THROUGH AND THURSDAY. LATE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING LOW STRATUS CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY, ESPECIALLY
AT KFLO AND KLBT.
MARINE
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE SHOULD REMAIN THE DOMINANT
WEATHER MAKER FOR US OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS. THE CENTER OF THE
HIGH IS CURRENTLY BETWEEN BERMUDA AND CAPE FEAR. THE HIGH
SHOULD SINK SOUTH NEXT WEEK, LEADING TO WINDS VEERING MORE
WESTERLY AND INCREASING IN SPEED. WE ALSO SHOULD EXPERIENCE A
LARGER NUMBER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND ESPECIALLY
MONDAY. NOT REALLY SEEING ANYTHING IN THE WINDS OR SEAS THAT
COME CLOSE TO ANY HEADLINES.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...31
KEY MESSAGES...31
DISCUSSION...31
AVIATION...31
MARINE...31
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