548
FXUS62 KILM 021143
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
640 AM EST FRI DEC 2 2022
SYNOPSIS
COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL UNTIL A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES SATURDAY AND MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT
SHOULD THEN RETURN BACK NORTH THROUGH THE AREA AS A WARM FRONT
TOWARD MID NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE COVERING MUCH OF THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE
NATION BRINGING CHILLY TEMPERATURES. IT'S CENTER IS TO OUR NORTH
HOWEVER PREVENTING IDEALIZED RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS (SAVE FOR
THE ALWAYS RELIABLE HOLLY SHELTER, ALREADY DOWN TO 22F!) AND
TEMPERATURES SHOULD ONLY FALL ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO IF NOT LEVEL OFF
ALTOGETHER. WARM ADVECTION WILL BE UNDERWAY TODAY ATOP THE STILL
POORLY MIXED SURFACE-BASED LAYER SO MORNING TEMPERATURE CURVE MAY BE
A TAD FLAT. EVEN BENEATH A HEALTHY INVERSION AT 4500FT WE SHOULD
EVENTUALLY WARM INTO THE LOW 60S, NOT FAR FROM CLIMATOLOGICAL
NORMALS. CIRRUS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND OPACITY AS TODAY WEARS
ON, LIKELY MAKING FOR A NICE SUNSET. A FEW MID CLOUDS COULD JOIN THE
CIRRUS OVERNIGHT KEEPING LOW TEMPERATURES SOME 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE TO HIGH THIS PERIOD. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH SATURDAY AND THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING RISK FOR SOME
MOSTLY LIGHT SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY, ESPECIALLY NORTHERN AND
NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. SHOWERS WILL PUSH
OFFSHORE SATURDAY EVENING AS DRIER AND CHILLIER AIR FILTERS IN WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PREVAIL THE REST OF
THE PERIOD WITH DRY CONDITIONS LIKELY, ALTHOUGH WOULDN'T BE TOO
SURPRISED IF A FEW SHOWERS OCCURRED, ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN/EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY WHEN A COASTAL TROUGH COULD
DEVELOP. EXPECT MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT THEN GETTING BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL STARTING SUNDAY.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO MODERATE THIS PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD BE GIVING WAY TO A WARM FRONT MONDAY NIGHT AND/OR TUESDAY
FOLLOWED BY A POSSIBLE WEAK COLD FRONT LATE IN THE PERIOD. THUS, IT
DOES APPEAR THERE WILL BE SOME PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER,
ALTHOUGH EXACT DETAILS ARE FAIRLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
NE WINDS TO CONTINUE AS WILL VFR. CIRRUS LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD
INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AND SOME MID LEVEL CLOUD OVERNIGHT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES, MAINLY
DUE TO LOW CLOUDS THROUGH MONDAY, THEN ALSO SOME SHOWERS MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT...LARGE HIGH PRESSURE COVERING MUCH OF THE
EASTERN U.S. TO BE THE DOMINANT WIND AND WAVE MAKER THROUGH THE
NEAR TERM. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH AND
PROGRESS EASTWARD VEERING THE RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS. SWELL
ENERGY AROUND THIS ANTICYCLONE REMAINS TO OUR NORTH KEEPING
DOMINANT PERIODS GENERALLY 6-7 SECONDS.
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY: CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE TO HIGH THROUGH THE
PERIOD. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY
HIGH PRESSURE BEFORE THE FRONT POSSIBLY MOVES BACK NORTH THROUGH THE
AREA AS A WARM FRONT MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY. WINDS/SEAS WILL BE
ELEVATED AT TIMES BUT STILL THINK THE RISK FOR A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY REMAINS LOW.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...MBB
SHORT TERM...RJB
LONG TERM...RJB
AVIATION...RJB/MBB
MARINE...RJB/MBB
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