168
FXUS62 KILM 311824
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
224 PM EDT SUN MAY 31 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 18Z. KEY MESSAGES REMAIN THE
SAME.
KEY MESSAGES
1) GOOD CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL DEVELOP AGAIN MONDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE.
2) CANADIAN AIR SPREADING SOUTHWARD COULD BRING TEMPERATURES 10
TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
3) A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED AT NEW HANOVER AND
GEORGETOWN COUNTY BEACHES THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: GOOD CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL DEVELOP AGAIN MONDAY
AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO
THE SOUTH WILL BRING RAIN CHANCES BACK TO THE AREA OVERNIGHT
INTO MONDAY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. WE
COULD SEE WARM FRONTAL TYPE RAIN WITH EMBEDDED CONVECTION AS A
RESULT OF THE LOW AFFECTING THE AREA TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS
WILL BE FOLLOWED BY SHOWERS AND STORMS LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE FRONT COMING IN FROM THE NORTH.
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY TUESDAY ABOUT HOW MUCH/LONG RAIN MAY
LINGER. SOME WETTER GUIDANCE WARRANTS HOLDING ONTO POPS INTO
TUESDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2: CANADIAN AIR SPREADING SOUTHWARD COULD BRING
TEMPERATURES 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.
AN EXCEPTIONALLY AMPLIFIED UPPER AIR PATTERN FOR EARLY JUNE
SHOULD FEATURE A STRONG RIDGE ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO
THE GREAT LAKES AND A DEEP TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST, PERHAPS
LEADING TO A CUTOFF UPPER LOW EAST OF THE OUTER BANKS WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. WHILE THE SYSTEM APPEARS AT THIS TIME THAT IT
WILL BE LOCATED TOO FAR EAST FOR ANY WET WEATHER TO OCCUR ACROSS
OUR AREA, A DEEP FLOW OF CANADIAN AIR SHOULD BRING TEMPERATURES
WELL BELOW NORMAL TO THE CAROLINAS.
KEY MESSAGE 3: A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED AT NEW
HANOVER AND GEORGETOWN COUNTY BEACHES INTO THIS EVENING.
A 4 TO 5 FOOT 6 SECOND PSUEDO-SWELL WILL LEAD TO A HIGH RISK OF
RIP CURRENTS AT NEW HANOVER AND GEORGETOWN COUNTY BEACHES TODAY,
ESPECIALLY DURING LOW TIDE. ELEVATED SWELLS WILL LIKELY
MAINTAIN A MODERATE, POSSIBLY HIGH, RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT
EAST-AND SOUTHEAST FACING BEACHES THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR INTO TONIGHT BEFORE LOW CLOUDS INCREASE AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS ALONG A FRONT TO THE SOUTH. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AND A
FEW STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY YIELDING AT
LEAST TEMPO MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS BY DAYBREAK MONDAY.
EXTENDED FORECAST...THERE IS A MODERATE TO HIGH POTENTIAL FOR
PERIODIC MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT
IMPACT THE AREA. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY.
MARINE
WINDS AND SEAS HAVE ABATED SUFFICIENTLY FOR THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY TO BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 1 PM. E TO SE WINDS OF 10 TO
15 WITH HIGHER GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
INTO MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE BECOMING NE AT 20 TO 25 KT BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 20 NM TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ106.
HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ108.
SC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ054.
HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ056.
MARINE...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...ILM
KEY MESSAGES...31
DISCUSSION...31
AVIATION...31
MARINE...31
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