750
FXUS62 KILM 212328
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
728 PM EDT FRI AUG 21 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED. HEAT ADVISORY HAS
BEEN CANCELLED. UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 00 UTC TAFS
HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
KEY MESSAGES
1) HEAT ADVISORY FOR MAINLY COASTAL COUNTIES WITH THE EXPECTATION
FOR SHOWERS, STORMS, AND/OR CLOUD COVER TO REDUCE TEMPERATURES BY
MID-LATE AFTERNOON.
2) ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS AND FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE TODAY THROUGH
TONIGHT.
3) NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED IN THE LONG-TERM WITH LOW RAIN
CHANCES FOR SUNDAY/MONDAY BEFORE INCREASING MIDWEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...DANGEROUS HEAT CONTINUES TODAY CLOSER TO THE COAST.
ALTHOUGH INCREASING SHOWERS/STORMS/CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES AND
HEAT INDICES LOWER IN SOME SPOTS WE WILL KEEP THE HEAT ADVISORY UP
FOR AT LEAST A FEW MORE HOURS FOR HEAT INDICES GENERALLY IN THE 105-
109 DEGREE RANGE.
KEY MESSAGE 2...ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS AND FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE
INTO TONIGHT, WITH A LOW RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING CONTINUING ON
SATURDAY.
A TROUGH IN THE JET STREAM AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT PROGRESSING
EASTWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS WILL YIELD SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THIS EVENING. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS
RECENTLY BEEN ISSUED FOR MAINLY THE RISK OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS,
ALTHOUGH LARGE HAIL AND A TORNADO CAN'T COMPLETELY BE RULED OUT.
MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY, STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES, AND
ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES (~2"+) WILL ALL
CONTRIBUTING TO A WET MICROBURST THREAT. FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL ARE ALSO EXPECTED WITH ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY INLAND FROM THE COAST WHERE STORMS MOVE OVER
THE SAME AREAS FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD. A LOW FLOOD RISK WILL
CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY, MAINLY NEAR/EAST OF I-95 AND IN AREAS THAT
PICK UP A GOOD DEAL OF RAIN TODAY/TONIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 3...NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED STARTING THIS
WEEKEND WITH LOW RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY/MONDAY BEFORE INCREASING MID
WEEK.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT STALLS JUST WEST OF OR OVER THE
FORECAST AREA WHILE IMPULSES ALOFT CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE
BROADER TROUGH IN THE JET STREAM. A PERIOD OF MOSTLY DRY WEATHER
APPEARS LIKELY ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE FRONT IS SHOVED OFFSHORE.
HOWEVER, AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY AROUND
MIDWEEK, ADDITIONAL IMPULSES AND WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ARE POISED TO
BRING PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM TUESDAY ONWARD, WITH
THE BEST CHANCES FOR MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN CURRENTLY FOCUSED ON
THURSDAY. OF COURSE, GIVEN THIS IS MULTIPLE DAYS AWAY, THE CHANCES
FOR RAIN WILL LIKELY FLUCTUATE IN THE COMING DAYS AS SMALLER-SCALE
DETAILS ARE WORKED OUT.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
00Z SAT THRU 00Z SUN: WITH MOST AREAS HAVING RECEIVED PLENTY OF
RAIN TODAY AND SOME IS STILL FALLING EXPECT RESTRICTIONS TO
FOLLOW LATER TONIGHT. DEBRIS CLOUDINESS MAY HOLD THINGS UP BUT
MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE NOW IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND WITH
PLENTY OF MOISTURE EXPECT MVFR TO PERHAPS EVEN A SMATTERING OF
IFR CONDITIONS. FOR LATER SATURDAY MORE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
ALTHOUGH NOT TO THE EXTENT OF TODAY'S COVERAGE.
00Z SUN THRU TUE: MOSTLY VFR EXPECTED OUTSIDE LOW TO MODERATE
RISK FOR CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS LATE SAT NIGHT/EARLY SUN, MAINLY
INLAND AT KLBT/KFLO. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
COAST. LOW RISK FOR RESTRICTIONS FROM SHOWERS/STORMS SUN/MON
WITH A BIT BETTER RISK TUE, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST.
MARINE
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY... EXPECT GENERALLY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD AS AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT STALLS
NEAR THE COAST. NO HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED AS WINDS PEAK AROUND 15-20
KTS OVER SATURDAY NIGHT AND WAVE HEIGHTS STAY AROUND 3 FT OR LESS
WITHIN 20 NMI AND UP TO 4 FT IN THE 20-60 NMI ZONES, HIGHEST THIS
WEEKEND.
THE BIGGEST MARINE IMPACT WILL LIKELY BE FROM INCREASING COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A FRONT STALLS NEAR THE COAST. THERE WILL
LIKELY BE SEVERAL ROUNDS OF STORMS, ACCOMPANIED BY REDUCED
VISIBILITY AND POSSIBLE GUSTY WINDS.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...RJB
KEY MESSAGES...RJB/ABW
DISCUSSION...RJB/ABW
AVIATION...SHK
MARINE...RJB/ABW
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