808
FXUS62 KILM 061913
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
313 PM EDT THU AUG 6 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. AVIATION DISCUSSION
UPDATED FOR THE 18Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) LOW TO MODERATE RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.
2) INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK WHICH COULD
RESULT IN AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES NEARING 105F.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1... LOW TO MODERATE RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.
WE ENTER A MORE TYPICAL PRECIPITATION PATTERN WITH SHOWERS AND
STORMS PRIMARILY IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE SEA BREEZE UNDER A WIDE
FIELD OF HIGH PRESSURE. DRY AIR MAY LOWER COVERAGE TOMORROW AND
SATURDAY BEFORE MOISTURE RETURNS FROM THE SOUTH SUNDAY. INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK THE HIGH WILL STRENGTHEN WITH RAIN CHANCES ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED, MOST LIKELY ON THE SEA BREEZE IN THE AFTERNOON AND THEN
INLAND IN THE EVENING.
KEY MESSAGE 2... INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK
WHICH COULD RESULT IN AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES NEARING 105F.
AS RIDGING OVER THE ATLANTIC BUILDS WESTWARD IN TANDEM WITH A
PERSISTENT MOISTURE PLUME, EXPECT BOTH TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS
TO RISE ABOVE NORMAL. WITH HIGHS REACHING THE MID 90S AND DEW POINTS
IN THE LOW-MID 70S, AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX MAY POTENTIALLY REACH 105F
IN SOME AREAS EVERY DAY STARTING AS EARLY AS SUNDAY BUT MORE LIKELY
MONDAY.
AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
INTERMITTENT RESTRICTIONS IN SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
FIRST 6 HRS OF THE TAF PERIOD STARTING NEAR THE COAST AND THEN FOR
INLAND TERMINALS. THEN TONIGHT THERE IS THE THREAT OF FOG AND LOW
STRATUS, MAINLY AT INLAND TERMINALS AT THIS TIME, STARTING ~09Z BUT
THE TIMING WILL NEED REFINING. A SIMILAR, AFTERNOON SHOWER/STORM
PATTERN IS EXPECTED FRIDAY, BUT COVERAGE WILL BE LOWER.
EXTENDED FORECAST... TRANSIENT RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS
AND STORMS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON EACH DAY THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THE MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS WILL ALSO SUPPORT A GREATER POTENTIAL
FOR MORNING FOG OR STRATUS EACH DAY.
MARINE
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
WINDS AVERAGING OUT OF THE SOUTH ~10-15 KT. LOW TO MODERATE CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAIN IN PLACE EVERY DAY. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 2-
4 FT WITH A PERSISTENT 7-8 SECOND SE SWELL.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...ILM
KEY MESSAGES...ILM
DISCUSSION...ILM
AVIATION...ILM
MARINE...ILM
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