040
FXUS62 KILM 220600
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
100 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2025
SYNOPSIS
WARMING TREND CONTINUES TODAY WITH AN ISOLATED SHOWER POSSIBLE.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH DRIER HIGH
PRESSURE AND COOLER, MORE SEASONABLE WEATHER FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
WEAK MID LEVEL ENERGY IS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION, NEAR THE REMNANTS
OF A SURFACE BOUNDARY. AS OF 1 AM, THIS MID LEVEL LIFT HAS LED TO
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING WHICH SHOULD WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE OFF TO THE EAST IN SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR.
ANOTHER WEAK MID LEVEL WAVE SHIFTED JUST TO THE NORTH WILL FOLLOW
LATER THIS MORNING (NEAR SUNRISE). THIS WILL LIKELY SIT A LITTLE
CLOSER TO THE DEGRADED BOUNDARY AND FEED ON DEEPER MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE. GIVEN THE TRAJECTORY OF THIS AREA OF CONVERGENCE,
EXPECT THIS TO PRIMARILY IMPACT OUR NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES. SHOWERS
SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT WITH LIMITED QPF. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO COME
TO AN END AROUND 9 OR 10 AM.
AFTER MORNING CLOUD COVER BEGINS TO THIN A BIT, WARMER TEMPERATURES
SHOULD RESULT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. PRE-FRONTAL WARM AIR ADVECTION
WILL BRING TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80. A LOW LEVEL
JET JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE COULD PRODUCE GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S WITH COOLER AND
DRIER AIR TRICKLING IN.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
COLD FRONT WILL BE OFFSHORE SUN MORNING, ALTHOUGH COLD ADVECTION
BEHIND THE FRONT IS WEAK TO NON-EXISTENT. IT NOW APPEARS THE COLD
AIR SURGE WILL BE DELAYED UNTIL SUN NIGHT, WHEN THE COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM CROSSING SOUTHERN CANADA
CROSSES THE AREA. THE SECOND FRONT PASSES DRY, WITH BARELY A CLOUD
TO MARK ITS PASSAGE. IT WILL RESULT IN WINDS SHIFTING TO NORTH-
NORTHEAST SUN NIGHT AS THE COLD SURGE ARRIVES. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES SUN DROP NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL SUN NIGHT. MON
WILL BE SUNNY AND COOL WITH NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW KEEPING
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL. FLAT 5H PATTERN QUICKLY SHIFTS THE CENTER
OF THE SURFACE HIGH EAST ON MON, WITH RETURN FLOW SETTING UP AS
EARLY AS MON EVENING. LOWS MON NIGHT END UP NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL AS RETURN FLOW AND WEAK RIDGE BUILDING IN THE MID LEVELS
BRING ABOUT A MODEST THICKNESS INCREASE.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
MID-LEVEL PATTERN STARTS TO BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED DURING THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK AS WEAK 5H RIDGE SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND BROAD TROUGHING
DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. THE SURFACE AND MID-LEVEL RIDGING
SHIFT OFFSHORE TUE, PUSHING A WARM FRONT NORTH OF THE AREA. CANNOT
RULE OUT SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT, OR
IN THE POST FRONT WARM SECTOR, BUT COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED WITH
MINIMAL RAINFALL GIVEN THE ABUNDANCE OF DRY AIR. SHOWERS, AND
POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM, REMAIN WITHIN THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY IN
THE WARM SECTOR AND AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT WED AND WED NIGHT,
ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SEVERAL LIMITING FACTORS. BAND OF DEEP MOISTURE
IS QUITE NARROW AND THE FORCING IS WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS IS A
TYPICAL SETUP FOR NEARLY DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES FREQUENTLY SEEN
THIS TIME OF YEAR. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO
TIMING GIVEN RUN TO RUN VARIATIONS OF THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE.
MORE AMPLIFICATION OF THE 5H TROUGH WOULD LEAD TO A DELAYED FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND PERHAPS BETTER RAIN CHANCES. BULK OF THE GUIDANCE IS IN
AGREEMENT THAT ANY RAINFALL WILL BE OVER BY THANKSGIVING, LEAVING A
COLD, DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. HIGHS WILL END
UP A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL THU, BUT TEMPERATURES THEN DROP WELL BELOW
NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS HAVE KEPT FOG JUST NORTH OF THE AREA THIS
MORNING AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL WINDS SHOULD ALLOW THIS TO
CONTINUE. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FOR FLO/LBT AROUND SUNRISE. THE
LIGHT NATURE OF THESE SHOWERS SHOULDN'T PUSH VIS RESTRICTIONS BELOW
MVFR AND CLOUD BASES SHOULD BE VFR, ALTHOUGH A HEAVIER SHOWER MAY
BRING A 2-3K FOOT CLOUD DECK.
SHOWERS END THIS MORNING AND CLOUDS SHOULD THIN FOR THE MIDDLE OF
THE DAY. GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION IN
ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT THIS EVENING. EXPECT VFR THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING THROUGH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. DRY AIR ACCOMPANYING THE
FRONT SHOULD KEEP RESTRICTIONS AND SHOWER CHANCES LOW. FOG IS
POSSIBLE TONIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT WITH LIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS.
EXTENDED FORECAST... PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY MORNING
BEHIND A COLD FRONT. CHANCES FOR SOME MORNING FOG MAY CONTINUE INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. OTHERWISE, EXPECT VFR.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT...
SATELLITE AND WEBCAMS OBSERVATIONS SHOW SOME FOG ALONG THE NC
COAST, BUT IT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE DENSE BASED ON AVAILABLE
OBSERVATIONS. WHAT LITTLE FOG EXISTS SHOULD GRADUALLY DISSIPATE
EARLY THIS MORNING DUE IN PART TO INCREASING LOW LEVEL WINDS.
WINDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE TODAY IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT, BUT
POOR MIXING OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS WILL KEEP GUSTS AROUND 20
KNOTS. A COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT WESTERLY WINDS AROUND TO THE
NORTH THIS EVENING. A SIMILAR GRADIENT FOLLOWING THE FRONT
SHOULD MAINTAIN 15 KNOT WINDS OVERNIGHT. COOLER AIR WON'T PUNCH
THROUGH THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT AS ONE WOULD EXPECT WITH A
TYPICAL COLD FRONT, SO GUSTS SHOULD BE SIMILAR INITIALLY THEN
GRADUALLY WEAKEN BY SUNRISE SUNDAY. SEAS BUILD TO 2-4 FEET TODAY
AND BEGIN TO DECREASE TO 2-3 FEET LATE TONIGHT.
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KT SUN INTO SUN NIGHT INCREASE DURING
THE PRE-DAWN HOURS MON FOLLOWING ARRIVAL OF NORTHEAST SURGE.
NORTHEAST FLOW INCREASES TO 15-20 KT MON BEFORE DECREASING MON
NIGHT AS GRADIENT RELAXES AND WINDS START VEERING TO EASTERLY.
THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH TO THE NORTH SHIFTS EAST TUE,
SETTING UP RETURN FLOW BY MIDDAY TUE WHICH CONTINUES THROUGH
WED. NOT MUCH OF A GRADIENT BEHIND TUE WARM FRONT OR AHEAD OF
THE WED NIGHT COLD FRONT. SPEEDS PEAK AROUND 15 KT WITH SLIGHTLY
HIGHER GUSTS GIVEN LIMIT MIXING IN THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME.
SEAS 2-3 FT FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE BUILDING TO
3-4 FT WED AS THE SOUTHERLY WIND WAVE START TO TRANSITION TO A
SOUTHEAST SWELL.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...21
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...21
MARINE...ILM
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