529
FXUS62 KILM 022325
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
725 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE AREA UNTIL 8 PM
EDT THIS EVENING. ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY WILL GO INTO EFFECT FOR
THE SAME LOCATIONS FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY.
ELSEWHERE, AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW FOR THE 18Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY WILL BRING
TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT INDICES THROUGH SATURDAY.
- 2) A COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND, FOLLOWED BY COOLER
TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY
WILL BRING TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT INDICES THROUGH SATURDAY.
THIS MORNING'S 12Z RAOBS FROM KMHX AND KCHS RECORDED 500 MB
HEIGHTS RIGHT IN THE 594-595 DAM RANGE, COMING JUST A FEW METERS
SHORT OF THE DAILY RECORD. THESE OBSERVATIONS ARE MORE TYPICAL
OF JULY AND AUGUST, NOT SEPTEMBER. THIS SHOWS THE POWER OF THIS
UPPER RIDGE. IN OTHER WORDS, ANOMALOUS HIGHS IN THE 90S ARE NOT
SURPRISING, AND UNFORTUNATELY, THAT TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY.
THOSE UPPER HEIGHTS WON'T MOVE, ALLOWING HIGH TEMPERATURES TO
SIT RIGHT WHERE THEY ARE (LOW-TO-MID 90S). SUBSIDENCE WILL
MOSTLY LIMIT RISING AIR, KEEPING THE AREA DRY THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SAFE FROM TYING OR BREAKING
RECORDS, BUT THAT WON'T STOP HEAT INDICES FROM REGULARLY HITTING
THE TRIPLE DIGITS. ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY ON THE WAY THURSDAY,
WITH MORE POSSIBLY WAITING FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
DAILY RECORD HIGHS THROUGH SATURDAY...
LOCATION...........THU 9/3......FRI 9/4......SAT 9/5
WILMINGTON.......97 IN 2010..100 IN 1925...95 IN 2023
N MYRTLE BEACH...97 IN 1944...99 IN 1944...98 IN 1944
FLORENCE.........98 IN 2010...99 IN 1954..100 IN 1954
LUMBERTON.......100 IN 1926..104 IN 1925..100 IN 1954
KEY MESSAGE 2
A COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN INCREASED CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND, FOLLOWED BY COOLER
TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK.
A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
SATURDAY. THIS FRONT IS AIDED BY A TROUGH THAT PUSHES DOWN THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST FROM CANADA, ALLOWING THE OF HOT WEATHER TO
RETROGRADE TO THE WEST. THIS TROUGH WILL BE SLOW IN ITS ARRIVAL,
ALLOWING FOR MORE ONE MORE UNCOMFORTABLY HOT DAY.
FINALLY, THE FRONT IS DUE SOMETIME SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, BRINGING ITS SHARE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE AREA.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW BULK SHEAR OF 20-25 KTS, AND THE
FRONT WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO PROVIDE STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES THAN WHAT WE'VE SEEN RECENTLY. WE'RE STILL DAYS AWAY, BUT
SPC HAS ALREADY GIVEN A 15-29% CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER WITHIN
25 MILES OF A POINT ACROSS VIRTUALLY THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.
WILL NEED TO WATCH THE TRENDS IN THE COMING DAYS.
FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND, BEFORE ANOTHER DRYING TRENDS KICKS IN THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE FRONT WILL HELP KNOCK TEMPERATURES DOWN
TO NEAR OR ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS, BUT HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S
COULD REAR THEIR UGLY HEAD YET AGAIN BY MID-TO-LATE NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. BR DID NOT PRESENT A
THREAT THIS MORNING BUT MAINTAINED THE POSSIBILITY OF MVFR
NONETHELESS VIA PERSISTENCE AND THE OUTSIDE CHANCE SOME
CONVECTION MAY DRIFT INTO THE NE ZONES LATER AUGMENTING THE
BOUNDARY LAYER SLIGHTLY.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...AREAS OF GROUND FOG ARE POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT AND AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BECOME
NUMEROUS ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AS A
COLD FRONT ARRIVES FROM THE NORTH. VFR SHOULD BE THE MAIN THEME
AGAIN BY MONDAY.
MARINE
THROUGH MONDAY...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD PROVIDE A LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZE AND DRY WEATHER AGAIN
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY, THE HIGH WILL BEGIN TO
RETREAT OFFSHORE, AS A COLD FRONT ADVANCES SOUTHWARD DOWN THE
EAST COAST. THE INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH
AND THE FRONT SHOULD LEAD TO AN UPTICK TOWARDS A MORE SOLIDLY
MODERATE BREEZE FRIDAY, ALONG WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF CHOPPIER
SEAS. ON SATURDAY, THE FRONT SHOULD ARRIVE DURING THE AFTERNOON
OR EVENING, ACCOMPANIED BY MULTIPLE WAVES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE,
CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY. FORECAST GRADUALLY DRIES UP MONDAY,
LEAVING THE WATERS WITH A NORTHEASTERLY MODERATE TO FRESH
BREEZE, AND SEAS NEAR 3-5 FT.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ087-096-099-
105-107-109.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR NCZ087-096-
099-105-107-109.
SC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ017-023-024-
032-033-058-059.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR SCZ017-023-
024-032-033-058-059.
MARINE...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...IGB
KEY MESSAGES...IGB
DISCUSSION...IGB
AVIATION...SHK
MARINE...IGB
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