147
FXUS62 KILM 302238
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
638 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW THE PERSISTENT MOIST
PLUME IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. HOWEVER,
THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY BECOME SUPPLANTED NORTHEAST
AND EAST OF THE AREA LATER TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. CONVECTION
WILL WEAKEN ACROSS THE INLAND AREAS OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO,
AND STRATUS/FOG POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT. AS A RESULT,
DECIDED TO REMOVE THE FIRST KEY MESSAGE. OTHERWISE, ONLY MINOR
CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE LATEST FORECAST ISSUANCE. ADDED A
REFERENCE FOR AUGUST REACHING THE SECOND WETTEST ON RECORD (15
INCHES) TO THE CLIMATE SECTION. THE AVIATION DISCUSSION WAS
UPDATED FOR THE 00Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) INCREASED HEAT AND HUMIDITY EXPECTED THIS WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...INCREASED HEAT AND HUMIDITY EXPECTED THIS WEEK.
AS UPPER-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD EARLY THIS WEEK,
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ABOVE NORMAL AND SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WILL DECREASE TO BELOW SEASONAL NORMS. WITH THE CORE OF THE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER SHIFTING OVERHEAD BY MIDWEEK, EXPECT WELL-ABOVE
NORMAL HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO POTENTIALLY UPPER 90S. HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA MAY BE REACHED IN SOME AREAS BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY,
ALTHOUGH ENOUGH DRY AIR IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE MAY BE ABLE TO KEEP
HEAT INDICES FROM REACHING 105F OR GREATER ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
REGARDLESS OF WHETHER A HEAT ADVISORY IS NEEDED, A PERIOD OF MOSTLY
SUNNY, DRY, AND ABNORMALLY HOT CONDITIONS (WITH HEAT INDICES OF 100F
OR HIGHER) IS EXPECTED.
WITH REGARD TO THIS HEAT EXTENDING BEYOND THE WORK WEEK, GUIDANCE
TOOLS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT REGARDING A COLD FRONT
SLIDING DOWN FROM THE NORTH NEXT WEEKEND, BRINGING INCREASED SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE, GREATER CLOUD COVER, AND CONSIDERABLY
LOWER HIGH TEMPERATURES. ALTHOUGH THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT AND ITS
ASSOCIATED PRECIP CARRIES LOW CONFIDENCE, CONFIDENCE IN THE HEAT
BEING CUT OFF THIS WEEKEND AND REPLACED BY UNSETTLED WEATHER IS
INCREASING.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THIS EVENING OTHER THAN SPOTTY MVFR CIGS,
BUT CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED REGARDING POTENTIAL LIFR
(ESPECIALLY AT KFLO/KLBT) DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. ANY
STRATUS/FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE 12-14Z MONDAY WITH VFR CONDITION TO
PREVAIL WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND AS THE MID/UPPER RIDGE BEGINS
TO EXERT ITS INFLUENCE ACROSS THE AREA. WILL LIKELY SEE A FEW
SHRA/TSRA ALONG THE SEA BREEZE MONDAY AFTERNOON, BUT LIMITED
COVERAGE DOES NOT WARRANT INCLUSION IN THE CURRENT TAF SET.
EXTENDED FORECAST...THERE IS LOW TO MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR
TO IFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG EACH MORNING THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK. AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN ALOFT, THE
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED IF ANY
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
MARINE
THROUGH THURSDAY...LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW IS IN PLACE AS HIGH
PRESSURE ESTABLISHES ITSELF NORTH OF THE AREA. AS THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE INTO MIDWEEK, A RETURN OF SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AT 5-10 KTS IS EXPECTED. ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AFTERNOONS, ABNORMALLY HOT TEMPERATURES ON LAND ARE
EXPECTED TO LEAD TO A NEARSHORE ENHANCEMENT OF THE WINDS DUE TO A
STRONGER SEA BREEZE, INCREASING SPEEDS INTO THE 10-15 KT RANGE. SEAS
WILL RUN 1-2 FT IN THE 0-20NMI ZONES AND 2-3 FT IN THE 20-60NMI
ZONES, PRIMARILY DRIVEN BY SOUTHEASTERLY 8-9 SEC SWELLS. WIND WAVES
OF 1 FT OR LESS WILL CONTINUE IN TANDEM WITH THE DAYTIME INCREASE IN
WINDS. A LONGER PERIOD SWELL OF 11 SEC SHOULD REACH THE SOUTHEAST
COAST OVER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, BRINGING SEAS INTO THE 2-3
FT RANGE IN THE 0-20NMI ZONES AND 3-4 FT IN THE 20-60NMI ZONES. THE
PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE TO AROUND 9 SEC OVER WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WHILE WAVE HEIGHTS REMAIN STEADY.
CLIMATE
WILMINGTON, NC IS CURRENTLY JUST BELOW ITS HOTTEST SUMMER ON
RECORD. THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (THE SIMPLE AVERAGE OF EACH
DAY'S HIGH AND LOW TEMPS) IS CURRENTLY 0.1F BELOW 2011 AND 2010
AS OF THE OFFICIAL DAILY CLIMATE REPORT FROM AUGUST 29.
#1 2011 81.8 DEG F
#2 2010 81.8 DEG F
#3 2026 81.7 DEG F (WITH TWO DAYS TO GO)
#4 2016 81.4 DEG F
#5 2022 81.1 DEG F
CONTINUOUS TEMPERATURE RECORDS BEGAN IN WILMINGTON IN 1874.
ADDITIONALLY, AUGUST IS THE SECOND WETTEST ON RECORD FOR
WILMINGTON. WITH TODAY'S RAINFALL 15.0 INCHES WAS RECORDED AT
ILM.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...SRP
KEY MESSAGES...ABW
DISCUSSION...ABW
AVIATION...SRP
MARINE...ABW
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