798
FXUS62 KILM 211052
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
652 AM EDT SAT MAR 21 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECASTS HAVE BEEN INCREASED BY 1-3 DEGREES
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. FORECAST SEABREEZE WINDS HAVE BEEN INCREASED
BY 5-8 MPH SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) ISOLATED STORMS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING WEST OF I-95 WITH POTENTIAL
FOR HAIL.
2) UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER WILL DEVELOP THIS WEEKEND, PEAKING ON
SUNDAY WHEN INLAND TEMPERATURES COULD APPROACH 90 DEGREES.
3) THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING RAIN CHANCES ON
WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: ISOLATED STORMS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING WEST OF
I-95 WITH POTENTIAL FOR HAIL.
A DECENT SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE
TODAY IS EXPECTED TO FIRE OFF A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING. GIVEN TIME OF DAY, PRECIPITATION WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA WITH NO POPS CURRENTLY FORECASTED FOR COASTAL AREAS.
COOL TEMPS ALOFT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SOLID MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ALLOWING FOR SOME INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP. STORMS WEST OF I-95 MAY
PRODUCE HALF-INCH OR LARGER HAIL.
KEY MESSAGE 2: UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER WILL DEVELOP THIS WEEKEND,
PEAKING ON SUNDAY WHEN INLAND TEMPERATURES COULD APPROACH 90 DEGREES.
A DEEP RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH TODAY THROUGH
MONDAY. 850 MB TEMPS SHOULD SURGE FROM AROUND +13C THIS AFTERNOON TO
+15C SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE ADVECTION OF HEAT FROM WEST IS
CERTAINLY A COMPONENT OF THIS UNUSUAL WARMTH, BACKWARDS TRAJECTORIES
COMPUTED FROM THE GFS MODEL SHOW THE AIR OVER THE EASTERN CAROLINAS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL HAVE EXPERIENCED OVER 2000 METERS OF
DESCENT (AND COMPRESSIONAL WARMING) IN THREE DAYS ON A LOOPING
JOURNEY FROM THE GULF COAST STATES.
HIGHS TODAY SHOULD RANGE FROM 80-85 DEGREES, COOLER WITHIN A FEW
MILES OF THE COAST IN A MODERATE STRENGTH SEABREEZE. SUNDAY'S HIGHS
SHOULD BE ANOTHER 5 DEGREES WARMER AND COULD REACH 90 ACROSS THE
INTERIOR PEE DEE REGION. SUNDAY'S STANDING RECORD HIGHS IN FLORENCE
AND LUMBERTON ARE IN JEOPARDY AND WILMINGTON COULD BE WITHIN 1-2
DEGREES OF TYING A 119-YEAR OLD RECORD.
RECORD HIGHS EARLY NEXT WEEK:
................... SUN MAR 22 ... MON MAR 23
WILMINGTON NC......... 87 IN 1907 ... 94 IN 1907
LUMBERTON NC.......... 87 IN 1948 ... 91 IN 1907
N. MYRTLE BEACH SC.... 86 IN 1995 ... 85 IN 2011
FLORENCE SC........... 87 IN 1995 ... 88 IN 1995
MONDAY SHOULD AGAIN SEE UNUSUALLY WARM TEMPERATURES, BUT THE ARRIVAL
OF A FRONT AND SCATTERED SHOWERS/T-STORMS DURING THE DAY COULD LIMIT
HOW WARM WE CAN GET. CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS MONDAY ARE 83-87 INLAND
WITH UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 ON THE COAST.
KEY MESSAGE 3: THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING RAIN
CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY.
MONDAY AFTERNOON'S COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE ALL THE WAY DOWN INTO
CENTRAL FLORIDA BY TUESDAY BEFORE STALLING. THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS THAT A COASTAL TROUGH MAY ATTEMPT TO DEVELOP UP ALONG
THE GA/SC COASTLINE WEDNESDAY, BUT MODEL SPREAD REMAINS VERY LARGE.
YESTERDAY'S 18Z GFS AND THIS MORNING'S 00Z GFS BOTH ARE QUITE
BULLISH SPREADING A SWATH OF OVERRUNNING LIGHT RAIN OVER THE COASTAL
FRONT ON WEDNESDAY, HOWEVER THE ECMWF REMAINS QUITE DRY. LOOKING
ACROSS THE ENTIRE ENSEMBLE SPACE FROM ALL MODELS, ONLY ABOUT 20-25
PERCENT CURRENTLY SHOW MEASURABLE RAIN ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY
IMPLYING THOSE LAST TWO GFS OPERATIONAL RUNS MAY BE TOO STRONG WITH
ATLANTIC RETURN FLOW.
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR WITH PASSING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. SOUTHWEST WINDS EARLY THIS
MORNING TURN WESTERLY IN A COUPLE OF HOURS. SEA BREEZE REMAINS
PINNED TODAY, WITH WINDS DEVELOPING A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT AT MYR
AND CRE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS QUICKLY BECOME LIGHT AFTER
SUNSET. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP WEST OF I-95 AFTER
0Z, WITH SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDER AT KFLO AND KLBT, BUT EXPECTED
COVERAGE IS TOO LIMITED FOR TAF INCLUSION.
EXTENDED FORECAST...VFR TO DOMINATE. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH MON WITH THE CHANCE FOR ISOLATED RESTRICTIONS DUE TO
T-STORMS AND POSSIBLY SOME SEA FOG ALONG THE COAST BEFORE THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. VFR THEN RETURNS THROUGH WED.
MARINE
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT....SOUTHWEST WINDS AND SEAS WILL PEAK THIS
MORNING, AROUND 15-20 KTS AND 3-5 FT RESPECTIVELY. WINDS REMAIN OUT
OF THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH TONIGHT, THOUGH WITH SPEEDS OF 10-15 KTS.
SEAS LOWER TO 2-4 FT, COMBINATION OF E SWELL AND SW WIND WAVE.
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT LINED UP ON SUNDAY
FROM NEW YORK STATE TO OKLAHOMA WILL GRADUALLY SINK SOUTHEASTWARD
AND SHOULD REACH THE CAROLINA COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON, ACCOMPANIED BY
SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. MODERATE SOUTHWEST WINDS 10-15
KT (UP TO 20 KT SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH THE SEABREEZE) WILL
TURN NORTHEASTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT BY MONDAY EVENING WITH SPEEDS
INCREASING TO 20-25 KT MONDAY NIGHT. WINDS COULD APPROACH 30 KT IN
GUSTS LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS 1032 MB CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE SHOULD PUSH FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.
PRE-FRONTAL SEAS OF 2-4 FEET SHOULD BUILD TO 5-7 FEET INSIDE 20
MILES FROM SHORE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
THE COLD FRONT SHOULD MAKE IT AS FAR SOUTH AS CENTRAL FLORIDA BEFORE
STALLING ON TUESDAY. A COASTAL TROUGH MAY TRY TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
GA/SC COAST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. OUR WIND SPEEDS SHOULD
TEND TO DECREASE AND VEER MORE EASTERLY WEDNESDAY, BUT WITH
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TIMING OF THIS
DIRECTION CHANGE.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...TRA/VAO
KEY MESSAGES...TRA/VAO
DISCUSSION...TRA/VAO
AVIATION...VAO
MARINE...TRA/VAO
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