364
FXUS62 KILM 151922
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
322 PM EDT SUN MAR 15 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 18Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A MARGINAL (1 OUT OF 5) RISK
FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS THROUGH TONIGHT AND AN ENHANCED (3
OUT OF 5 RISK NEAR COAST) TO MODERATE (4 OUT OF 5 RISK INLAND)
THREAT FOR SCATTERED TO POSSIBLY WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
2) NEAR-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT AND
SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1... A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A MARGINAL (1
OUT OF 5) RISK FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS THROUGH TONIGHT AND
AN ENHANCED (3 OUT OF 5 RISK NEAR COAST) TO MODERATE (4 OUT OF 5
RISK INLAND) THREAT FOR SCATTERED TO POSSIBLY WIDESPREAD SEVERE
STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A MARGINAL (1 OUT OF 5) RISK
FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS THROUGH TONIGHT AND AN ENHANCED (3
OUT OF 5 RISK NEAR COAST) TO MODERATE (4 OUT OF 5 RISK INLAND)
THREAT FOR SCATTERED TO POSSIBLY WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
A VERY ACTIVE PERIOD IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY AS ANOMOLOUSLY
STRONG/DEEP UPPER TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST CLIPS THE REGION. A
SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL SHIFT NORTH THROUGH SE NC AND NE SC TODAY
WITH THE REGION SOLIDLY IN THE PRE-COLD FRONTAL WARM SECTOR TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY. THERE WILL BE A LOW RISK FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS W/
DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS, LARGE HAIL, AND/OR MAINLY WEAK
TORNADOES THROUGH TONIGHT.
THE STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH SE NC AND NE SC FROM THE
WEST LATER MONDAY MORNING BEFORE PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA AND
OFFSHORE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. GENERALLY EXPECT
MORE ISOLATED STORMS EARLY IN THE DAY WHICH WILL BRING A RISK FOR
DAMAGING WINDS, LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES (POSSIBLY STRONG). THEN A
SQUALL LINE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL IMPACT THE AREA FROM WEST
TO EAST IN THE AFTERNOON THROUGH POSSIBLY EARLY EVENING WITH THE
MAIN HAZARD BEING DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE WIND GUSTS, ALTHOUGH
ISOLATED TORNADOES (MAYBE STRONG) ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. HOWEVER, IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE SEVERE
WEATHER RISK, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST UP INTO THE CAPE FEAR WHERE
THERE SHOULD BE A DECENT MARINE INFLUENCE THAT WOULD LIMIT
INSTABILITY THERE. MUCH WILL LIKELY DEPEND ON HOW INTENSE THE SQUALL
LINE BECOMES AS THE STRONGER IT IS THE MORE LIKELY IT WILL BE ABLE
TO PENETRATE THE MARINE LAYER AND BRING STRONGER WINDS TO THE
SURFACE, ESPECIALLY THE FARTHER INLAND YOU GO.
ALSO, EVEN OUTSIDE OF ANY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THERE WILL BE A
RISK FOR WIND GUSTS UP TO AROUND 50 MPH MONDAY, ESPECIALLY IF ANY
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS OCCUR, AND THIS COULD PROMPT A WIND ADVISORY
WHEN/IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES.
KEY MESSAGE 2... NEAR-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY
NIGHT AND SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT.
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE 30S MONDAY NIGHT.
ALTHOUGH SOME GUIDANCE INDICATES TEMPS AOB FREEZING, FAVORED THE
WARMER GUIDANCE DUE TO WINDS STAYING UP THROUGH THE NIGHT AND
GUIDANCE IS TYPICALLY TOO WARM IN THIS SCENARIO. THE WIND
SHOULD ALSO PRECLUDE AREAS OF FROST. A FREEZE IS LIKELY THOUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT FOR MOST AREAS EXCEPT PERHAPS RIGHT AT THE COAST,
WITH LIGHT WIND AND GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS AS THE
CENTER OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES CLOSE TO THE REGION. ANOTHER
FREEZE IS THEN POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOWER
FOR THAT ONES AS IT MAY BE JUST CONFINED TO TYPICAL COLDER
SPOTS.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. A WARM FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE AREA LATER TODAY AND THIS
EVENING FOLLOWED BY THE APPROACH OF A STRONG COLD FRONT FROM THE
WEST ON MONDAY WHICH WILL LEAD TO PERIODS OF SHOWERS/STORMS.
MAINLY VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED, ALTHOUGH IFR OR WORSE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES DUE TO LOW CLOUDS/HEAVIER
PRECIP. ALSO, WINDS WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT CONCERN DUE TO GUSTS
(MAINLY AFTER DAYBREAK MON) AND LLWS (OVERNIGHT, POSSIBLY INTO
MON NEAR THE COAST).
EXTENDED FORECAST... A PASSING STRONG COLD FRONT MON WILL BRING
SHOWERS/STORMS/GUSTY WINDS. GUSTS OF 50+ KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE
WITH A LIKELY SQUALL LINE LATE MON. AFTER THE CFP, VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN LATE MON NIGHT AND PREVAIL THRU THU.
MARINE
THROUGH MONDAY... NO BIG CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH
MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE PERIOD. HAZARDOUS MARINE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS
POSSIBLE, ALTHOUGH NOT LIKELY ENOUGH TO PROMPT A GALE WATCH OR
WARNING DUE TO THE COOL NEARSHORE WATERS WHICH WILL LIMIT
INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL MIXING DOWN OF STRONGER WINDS ALOFT.
AT THE VERY LEAST GALE TO STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS WILL LIKELY
OCCUR IN ANY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS, ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR WATERSPOUTS. SEA FOG COULD ALSO DEVELOP LATER TODAY AND
CONTINUE INTO MONDAY, POSSIBLY BECOMING DENSE, AS WARMER AND
MOISTER AIR MOVES IN AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT DUE TO STRONG
SOUTHERLY WINDS.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY... THE SCA CONTINUES THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING WITH FREQUENT GUSTS AROUND 30 KT EXPECTED. GALE-
FORCE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL, BUT MAINLY CONFINED TO
CONVECTION AND CAN BE HANDLED WITH SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS.
FAIRLY BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS THEREAFTER THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
WIND NO HIGHER THAN 10-15 KT AT TIMES AND SEAS CONSISTENTLY IN
THE 2-4 FT RANGE.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ250-252.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT
TUESDAY FOR AMZ254-256.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...ILM
KEY MESSAGES...ILM
DISCUSSION...RJB/MAS
AVIATION...RJB
MARINE...RJB/MAS
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