632
FXUS62 KILM 071150
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
650 AM EST SAT MAR 7 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED AT 6 AM EST SATURDAY... THE EXISTING DENSE FOG ADVISORY
HAS BEEN EXPANDED. AVIATION DISCUSSION HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THE
12Z TAF ISSUANCE.
CHANGES AS OF 1 AM EST SATURDAY... A MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY
FOR ALL NEARSHORE WATERS CONTINUES THROUGH 10 AM EST. THERE IS A
SMALL CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN AFTERNOON STORMS ON SUNDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) WARM AND MUGGY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. NIGHTTIME
FOG MAY BE DENSE EACH DAY, WITH PERIODS OF DENSE SEA FOG.
2) RAIN CHANCES INCREASING SUNDAY AS A WEAKENING
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1... WARM AND MUGGY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. NIGHTTIME FOG MAY BE DENSE EACH DAY, WITH PERIODS OF DENSE
SEA FOG.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
PERSISTENT FORECAST THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK COURTESY OF
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDING CONTINUED ADVECTION OF WARM,
MOIST AIR. WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES, WITH INLAND TEMPS IN
THE LOW 80S INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, WITH AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZE KEEPING THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
LOW TEMPS EACH NIGHT AROUND 60F. HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS SHOULD
REMAIN SAFE TODAY WITH MOST OF THE AREA'S CLIMATOLOGICAL
MAXIMUMS IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S.
FORECAST REMAINS DRY TODAY DUE TO RIDGING ALOFT. AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TOMORROW THROUGH TUESDAY, DUE TO
DAYTIME HEATING AND SEA BREEZE, AS THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE FLATTENS
AND SUBSIDENCE WEAKENS.
DENSE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT AND MORNING INTO NEXT
WEEK DUE TO DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S AND HIGH PRESSURE KEEPING
WINDS RELATIVELY LIGHT. HIGH DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO
PERIODS DENSE SEA FOG OVER THE COASTAL WATERS EACH DAY INTO NEXT
WEEK, WHICH WILL IMPACT NAVIGATION AND MAY MOVE ONSHORE AND
IMPACT COASTAL AREAS.
KEY MESSAGE 2... RAIN CHANCES INCREASING SUNDAY AS A WEAKENING
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
A MINOR SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE CAROLINAS WILL HELP PUSH A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT INTO THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY, POSSIBLY
STALLING BY MONDAY. A SLUG OF DEEPER MOISTURE IS NOTED ON TIME-
HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS DURING THIS TIME WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT AT
LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS, AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. LOW-
LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE WEAK SIDE BUT
COULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR TO SUPPORT
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME SINCE THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA IS ON THE EDGE OF THE SPC
MARGINAL RISK DEPICTION WHICH IS CENTERED ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN NC.
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
WIDESPREAD FOG CONTINUES TO IMPACT ALL TERMINALS. CONDITIONS
SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. FOG MAY LIFT
TO STRATUS, ESPECIALLY INLAND THROUGH 14-15Z. VFR DEVELOPS BY
LATE THIS MORNING AND STRONGER SW FLOW COULD BRING A FEW GUSTS
TO 15-20 KNOTS, HIGHEST NEAR THE COAST. INCREASED BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS TONIGHT COULD FAVOR STRATUS OVER FOG FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA, ALTHOUGH SEA FOG MAY BE AN ISSUE FOR THE GRAND STRAND
TERMINALS. RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY REGARDLESS OF WHETHER THEY
ARE FOG OR STRATUS.
EXTENDED FORECAST... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF
THE DAYTIME PERIOD INTO NEXT WEEK, BUT PERIODS OF RADIATIONAL
FOG INLAND AND ONSHORE MOVEMENT OF SEA FOG AT THE COAST WILL
BRING NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT... LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH SEAS AROUND 2-3 FEET. SEA FOG CONTINUES TO BE THE
PRIMARILY CONCERN FOR ALL NEARSHORE WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. A
MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 10 AM EST, BUT
SEA FOG REMAINS POSSIBLE THEREAFTER. FOG CHANCES WILL BE AT
THEIR MINIMUM DURING THE AFTERNOON, BUT ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG,
SOME DENSE, IS LIKELY TO RETURN THIS EVENING.
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... A SWLY FETCH WILL PREVAIL DURING
SUNDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
STALL AND DISSIPATE. AS A RESULT, SWLY FLOW WILL PERSIST MONDAY
AND TUESDAY BUT WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 KT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL TIGHTEN BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT BETWEEN ANOTHER COLD FRONT AND
HIGH PRESSURE FAR OFFSHORE. GOOD CHANCE THE COASTAL WATERS WILL
SEE SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND AS THE FLOW VEERS
OFFSHORE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT DURING THURSDAY. SEAS WILL BE
AROUND 4 FT SUNDAY, 3-4 FT MONDAY, AND AROUND 3 FT TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 6-7 FT AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. THE DEVELOPING OFFSHORE FLOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR A
GREATER RANGE IN SEAS AS THE FETCH BECOMES LIMITED.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ099-
105>110.
SC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR SCZ032-033-
039-054>056-058-059.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ250-252-
254-256.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...ILM
KEY MESSAGES...21/SRP
DISCUSSION...21/SRP
AVIATION...21
MARINE...21/SRP
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