722
FXUS62 KILM 181017
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
617 AM EDT SUN OCT 18 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AS OF 6 AM EDT...THE AVIATION DISCUSSION HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THE
12Z TAF ISSUANCE. LLWS HAS BEEN ADDED TO ALL TAF SITES FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT.
AS OF 3 AM EDT...THE END TIME OF THE NEARSHORE GALE WARNINGS HAVE
BEEN ADJUSTED WITH THE STRONGER GRADIENT REMAINING FARTHER OFFSHORE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A DEVELOPING NOR'EASTER WILL BRING STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS TO
THE AREA, LEADING TO PROLONGED DANGEROUS MARINE CONDITIONS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1... A DEVELOPING NOR'EASTER WILL BRING STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS TO THE AREA, LEADING TO PROLONGED HAZARDOUS
MARINE CONDITIONS.
A DEEPENING NOR'EASTER AND HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NORTHERLY FLOW SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. DRY AIR ADVECTION AND HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN US WILL MAINTAIN CLEAR SKIES.
STRONG WINDS ARE PRODUCING MARINE IMPACTS. FOR MORE
INFORMATION, SEE THE MARINE DISCUSSION BELOW.
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL BUT WARM ENOUGH TO
WHERE FROST FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED.
AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
SKIES HAVE CLEARED OUT ACROSS THE AREA, WITH ANY REMAINING SUB-
VFR CEILINGS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE AS DRY AIR STAYS
ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
SURFACE WIND GUSTS HAVE LARGELY SUBSIDED, WHICH WILL ALLOW LLWS
TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST DAYBREAK DUE TO A 40-50 KT
NORTHEASTERLY LLJ. NORTHEASTERLY GUSTINESS OF 22-28KTS ARE
EXPECTED TO RE-DEVELOP AFTER DAYBREAK AT ALL TAF SITES, BRINGING
AN END TO THE LLWS THREAT. ANOTHER PERIOD OF LLWS IS POSSIBLE
SUNDAY NIGHT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK... A NOR'EASTER WELL OFFSHORE WILL MAINTAIN BREEZY
NORTHERLY WINDS, BUT VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH
MID TO LATE WEEK.
MARINE
A DEVELOPING NOR'EASTER MAY LINGER EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND POSSIBLY LONGER IN OUR SE NC WATERS. THE LATEST
FORECAST ADDRESSES TIMING DETAILS FOR THE SC NEARSHORE WATERS.
DUE TO THE LOCATION OF THE LOW, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE
BELOW GALE FORCE FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. THUS, THE
GALE WARNING IS EXPECTED TO COME TO AN END OVERNIGHT TONIGHT
FOR THE NEARSHORE SC WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
WILL FOLLOW. AS THE NOR'EASTER MOVES FURTHER AWAY EARLY NEXT
WEEK, CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE, BUT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS MAY LINGER INTO MID WEEK DEPENDING ON IT'S EXACT
TRACK.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN US NEXT WEEKEND
MAY BRING ADDITIONAL MARINE HEADLINES.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 6 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH
THIS EVENING FOR NCZ106.
HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS FROM 6 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
EVENING FOR NCZ108.
SC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 6 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH
THIS EVENING FOR SCZ054-056.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ250-252-284.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ254-256.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ280.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...ILM
KEY MESSAGES...ILM
DISCUSSION...ILM
AVIATION...CBL
MARINE...ILM
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