540
FXUS62 KILM 240621
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
221 AM EDT THU SEP 24 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SEVERAL NEW COASTAL AND BEACH HAZARDS HAVE BEEN RAISED DUE TO
HIGH TIDES AND DANGEROUS SURF. FORECAST HIGHS TODAY HAVE BEEN
NUDGED DOWN BY SEVERAL DEGREES WEST OF THE CAPE FEAR AREA DUE TO
CLOUDS. FORECAST SHOWER CHANCES TODAY HAVE BEEN INCREASED
SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE PEE DEE REGION. MOST OTHER CHANGES WERE
MINOR.
KEY MESSAGES
1) MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AND BEACH EROSION ARE POSSIBLE DURING EACH
OF THE NEXT SEVERAL HIGH TIDES.
2) AFTER SCATTERED SHOWERS END TODAY, THE COOLEST AIRMASS SINCE
EARLY JUNE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS.
3) STRENGTHENING OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT
BEACH HAZARDS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AND BEACH EROSION ARE
POSSIBLE DURING EACH OF THE NEXT SEVERAL HIGH TIDES.
STRONG NORTHEAST WIND IS BANKING WATER UP AGAINST THE EAST-
FACING BEACHES. AT THE TIME OF THIS WRITING, TIDAL ANOMALIES AT
WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH WERE MEASURED AT +1.5 FEET AND +1.3 FEET AT
MYRTLE BEACH. THIS MORNING'S 6 AM HIGH TIDE SHOULD HAVE ENOUGH
STORM SURGE ASSOCIATED WITH IT TO REACH MINOR COASTAL FLOOD
LEVELS NORTH OF CAPE FEAR WHERE A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY HAS
BEEN ISSUED. THE CAPE FEAR RIVER WILL ALSO LIKELY REACH MINOR
FLOOD STAGE AT THE DOWNTOWN WILMINGTON GAUGE DURING ITS 8:30 AM
HIGH TIDE THIS MORNING.
AS CONSIDERABLE STORMINESS CONTINUES FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS
OFFSHORE, MODELS SUGGEST THERE WILL BE A +1.5 TO +2.2 FOOT
STORM SURGE PRESENT THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY.
THIS MEANS EACH HIGH TIDE WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE
MINOR FLOODING. WE'RE MOST CONCERNED WITH THIS EVENING'S AND
FRIDAY EVENING'S HIGH TIDES AT THE NEW HANOVER AND PENDER
COUNTY BEACHES WHICH COULD EXCEED FLOOD STAGE BY UP TO 1 FOOT.
THE SURGE WILL BE SOMEWHAT LOWER ALONG THE BRUNSWICK COUNTY
AND SOUTH CAROLINA BEACHES WHERE FLOOD STAGE COULD STILL BE
REACHED DURING HIGH TIDES THIS EVENING AND FRIDAY EVENING.
OBJECTIVE BEACH EROSION GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT MAY BE SAND LOSS
EXPERIENCED DURING HIGH TIDES THROUGH SATURDAY MAINLY ON THE
PENDER AND NEW HANOVER COUNTY BEACHES.
KEY MESSAGE 2...AFTER SCATTERED SHOWERS END TODAY, THE COOLEST
AIRMASS SINCE EARLY JUNE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS.
DESPITE RATHER COOL CONDITIONS TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES STUCK IN
THE 60S (LOWER 70S ALONG PORTIONS OF THE COAST) AN APPROACHING
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SHOULD IGNITE SCATTERED ELEVATED
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH THE GFS AND NAM
SHOW SMALL POSITIVE INSTABILITY RESULTING WHEN PARCELS BETWEEN
875-800 MB ARE LIFTED.
THE BEST PVA AND IMPLIED ASCENT SHOULD DEVELOP LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE PEE DEE REGION
WHERE SHOWERS ARE MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR. SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD
MAKE THEIR WAY DOWN TO THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THUNDER CHANCES ARE NOT ZERO, BUT REMAIN QUITE LOW
GIVEN THE MEAGER CAPE VALUES NOTED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS.
ONCE THE UPPER DISTURBANCE PUSHES OFF THE COAST TONIGHT,
850-925 MB WINDS THAT HAVE BEEN EASTERLY SHOULD BACK NORTHERLY,
SHUTTING OFF MOIST ATLANTIC INFLOW AND ALLOWING COOL AND DRY
CANADIAN AIR TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD DIP
INTO THE 50S EACH NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT. BOTH
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD HAVE GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS FROM CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS AND I
WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED TO SEE LOWS IN THE 40S ACROSS INLAND COLD
SPOTS. HIGHS FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND SHOULD REMAIN THE 70S
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE VERY COMFORTABLE 40S AND LOWER 50S.
KEY MESSAGE 3...STRENGTHENING OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING
SIGNIFICANT BEACH HAZARDS.
A THOUSAND-MILE LONG BAND OF GALE FORCE WINDS EXTENDING FROM OFF
NOVA SCOTIA TO THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST IS PRODUCING A WIDE SWATH
OF LARGE AND GROWING WAVES ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE
NORTHEASTERLY WIND TRAJECTORY MEANS SOME PORTIONS OF THE COAST
ARE BEING SHIELDED FROM THE WORST EFFECTS BY THE SHALLOW WATER
ON LOOKOUT SHOALS AND FRYING PAN SHOALS. THE NEW HANOVER COUNTY
BEACHES, PARTICULARLY THE SOUTH END OF THE COUNTY INCLUDING
CAROLINA BEACH, KURE BEACH, AND FORT FISHER HAVE NO SUCH
SHIELDING AND SHOULD SEE THE DIRECT IMPACT FROM 11 SECOND
NORTHEASTERLY SWELL TODAY. BREAKING WAVES SHOULD BUILD TO 5-7
FEET AND A HIGH SURF ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS AREA.
ALL BEACHES NORTH OF CAPE FEAR WILL EXPERIENCE A HIGH RISK OF
RIP CURRENTS TODAY. THE SOUTH CAROLINA BEACHES SHOULD HAVE A
MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS. EAST-FACING BEACHES WILL ALSO
EXPERIENCE A STRONG LEFT-TO-RIGHT LONGSHORE CURRENT PRODUCED BY
NORTHERLY WINDS. SIMILAR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE FRIDAY.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
WIDESPREAD MVFR TO OCCASIONALLY IFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY, ALONG WITH BREEZY NORTH WINDS GUSTING
TO 25 KNOTS. THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR IFR CEILINGS SHOULD EXIST
AT KFLO INTERMITTENTLY NOW THROUGH 19Z WHERE THERE IS ALSO A
MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED CONVECTIVE SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
AFTER DAYBREAK AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA. CEILINGS SHOULD BEGIN TO LIFT BY LATE AFTERNOON AND MAY
BEGIN TO SCATTER OUT BY LATE EVENING AS DRIER AIR WORKS ITS WAY
IN FROM THE NORTH.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...AFTER LINGERING LOW CLOUDS CLEAR THE COAST
AROUND 06Z FRIDAY, VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.
MARINE
A LONG PERIOD OF HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER CONDITIONS SHOULD PEAK
IN SEVERITY ALONG THE COAST THIS EVENING. GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE
LIKELY OCCURRING NOW ACROSS THE 20-60 MILE OFFSHORE WATERS AND
MAY CONTINUE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.
1008 MB LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE NORTH CAROLINA COASTLINE
SHOULD DEEPEN TO 994 MB OVER THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
NORTHWARD OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THE TIGHTEST PORTION OF
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD SET UP ACROSS OUR MARINE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING WHEN GUSTS TO GALE FORCE ARE
EXPECTED INSIDE THE 0-20 MILE WATERS OF THE CAPE FEAR COAST. A
GALE WARNING REMAINS IN IN EFFECT THERE WITH A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY ALONG FOR THE SOUTH CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS.
A LONG FETCH OF GALE-FORCE NORTHEASTERLY WINDS POINTED AT THE
NORTH CAROLINA COAST SHOULD GENERATE SEAS BUILDING TO 8-14 FEET
FOR THE 20-60 MILE OFFSHORE FORECAST ZONES. CLOSER TO THE COAST,
6 TO 9 FOOT SEAS ARE EXPECTED NORTH AND EAST OF FRYING PAN
SHOALS WITH 5-7 FOOT SEAS WEST OF FRYING PAN SHOALS INCLUDING
THE GRAND STRAND COASTAL WATERS. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE
FRIDAY, BUT RESIDUAL 6 FOOT SEAS COULD LINGER INSIDE 20 MILES OF
SHORE NORTH OF CAPE FEAR THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
NCZ106-108.
HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS FROM 6 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
EVENING FOR NCZ106-108.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
NCZ107.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR NCZ108.
SC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 6 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH
THIS EVENING FOR SCZ054-056.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ250-252-280-284.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ254-256.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...TRA
KEY MESSAGES...TRA
DISCUSSION...TRA
AVIATION...TRA
MARINE...TRA
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