929
FXUS62 KILM 130533
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
133 AM EDT SAT AUG 13 2022
SYNOPSIS
MUCH LESS HUMID AIR WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
NEXT WEEK WILL REMAIN QUITE SEASONABLE BUT WITH RAIN CHANCES MOST
DAYS AS A FRONT APPROACHES MONDAY AND STALLS.
UPDATE
AS OF 10:30 PM EDT, LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A BEND IN THE
COLD FRONT, WITH MOST OF IT BEING OFFSHORE OF THE LOCAL FORECAST
AREA, BEFORE SNAKING BACK INLAND THROUGH PARTS OF HORRY,
GEORGETOWN, AND WILLIAMSBURG COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST SC.
WIDESPREAD COOLER AND DRIER AIR IS CURRENTLY DROPPING INTO THE
CAROLINAS, WITH DEWPOINTS NOW DROPPING INTO THE 60S.
CONVECTION THAT WAS WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA HAS OFFICIALLY
DIED OUT, SO ALL RAIN CHANCES HAVE BEEN REMOVED AT THIS POINT.
WITH SOILS NOW WET FROM TODAY'S RAIN, AND LIGHT NNE WINDS
ALREADY SETTLING IN, WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED FOR PATCHY FOG TO
DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL LIKELY MIX OUT BY THE MID-
MORNING HOURS SATURDAY. BE CAREFUL DRIVING EARLY IN THE MORNING.
BASE OF UPPER TROUGH CONTINUING TO SWING THROUGH THE AREA,
SIGNIFICANTLY LOWERING THE HEIGHTS. IN FACT, CURRENT 500MB
HEIGHTS NEAR KILM ARE LIKELY NEAR 583 DAM. ACCORDING TO THE SPC
SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY PAGE (SPC.NOAA.GOV/EXPER/SOUNDINGCLIMO/),
THIS IS 10% OF THE MOVING AVERAGE FOR 00Z AUGUST 13. WE WOULD
NOT EXPECT TO SEE 500MB HEIGHT AVERAGES OF 583 DAM UNTIL EARLY
OCTOBER!!! THIS GOES TO SHOW THE UNUSUAL STRENGTH OF THIS TROUGH
FOR MID-AUGUST.
ENJOY THIS TEASE OF FALL. OPEN UP THE WINDOWS AND HAVE A
PUMPKIN SPICE LATTE BY A BONFIRE THIS WEEKEND!
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE AREA
ROUGHLY OUTLINED BY THE LINE OF CONVECTION. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE
TO PUSH SOUTH, ALBEIT THE MOMENTUM IS SLOWING AS WE SPEAK AND
MEANINGFUL/SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL SHOULD BE COMING TO AN END IN
ALL AREAS IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THERE IS A LITTLE
CONVECTION TRYING TO FIRE WHERE THE SUN IS BREAKING OUT WELL TO
THE WEST BUT IS FIGHTING LOWER DEWPOINTS. FOR TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY THE DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER IN.
LOWS EARLY SATURDAY WILL BE QUITE UNIFORM IN THE MIDDLE 60S.
SAME FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS WITH MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE CLOSE TO NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD
MOST RESIDENTS WILL READILY NOTICE THE MUCH LOWER HUMIDITY VALUES
THAT ARE OFTEN HARD TO COME BY IN AUGUST. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO THE
LARGE POST-FRONTAL HIGH THAT WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO OUR NORTH
KEEPING LOCAL WINDS OUT OF THE N TO NNE.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
RAIN CHANCES CREEP BACK INTO THE FORECAST ON MONDAY AS ANOTHER COOL
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. GUIDANCE HAS INCREASE POPS FOR THE
MOST PART AND EVEN THOUGH DEEP MOISTURE RETURN IS LACKING THE TROUGH
WILL BE BRINGING APPRECIABLE HEIGHT FALLS FOR THE TIME OF YEAR
(MEANING SHOWERS APPEAR MORE LIKELY BUT THE QPF POTENTIAL REMAINS
QUITE LOW). FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD THE MEAN TROUGH POSITION
WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES DIG IN
FROM THE UPSTREAM. THIS WILL KEEP THE FRONT AND ITS ASSOCIATED
MOISTURE CLOSE BY ENOUGH TO RULE OUT A DRY FORECAST ON ANY GIVEN
DAY. TEMPERATURES FOR NOW APPEAR SEASONABLE THROUGHOUT BUT COULD
DEFINITELY SEE THE NEED TO LOWER HIGHS BY JUST A FEW DEGREES IF
CLOUD COVER WINDS UP BEING PREVALENT ENOUGH.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
DRIER LOW-LEVEL AIR WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT INTO THE MORNING. HOWEVER, LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS LINGERING
GENERALLY NEAR KCRE/KMYR SOUTHWARD WHERE SOME ST AND TEMPO BKN MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE. A SWATH OF THE AREA RECEIVED RAIN TODAY AND
WITH A WET GROUND WOULD EXPECT POCKETS OF LOWER VSBYS TO DEVELOP,
POTENTIALLY AFFECTING KFLO/KLBT - THOUGH BAND OF CI WILL LIKELY
IMPEDE DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD BR/FG AT KFLO FOR A FEW HOURS. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS DURING THE DAY.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NEXT THREAT TO THE
FLIGHT CATEGORIES MAY NOT COME UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
MARINE
THROUGH SATURDAY...WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS CURRENTLY ACROSS THE
WATERS WILL FIND A NORTHEAST DIRECTION BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS
A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. NOT A STRONG PUSH BUT ENOUGH
TO INCREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SIGNIFICANT
SEAS WILL HOVER AROUND THREE FEET OR SO PERHAPS A BIT LOWER AS THE
CHANGEABLE FETCH PRECLUDES ANYTHING MORE SIGNIFICANT.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FRONT STALLED OFFSHORE EARLY IN
THE PERIOD WITH A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TO BRING NE TO E WINDS,
GENERALLY CAPPED AT 10KT. FLOW RETURNS TO A MORE TYPICAL SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION ON MONDAY AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES. THIS BOUNDARY
WILL ONCE AGAIN VEER WINDS TO A LESS-THEN-COMMON NW TO NE DIRECTION
EARLY NEXT WEEK, THOUGH THE EXACT TIMING IS A BIT UNCERTAIN. WAVES
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO GROW WITH THE FRONT SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE ABSENCE
OF ANY SWELL ENERGY.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...IGB
NEAR TERM...SHK
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...SRP
MARINE...MBB/SHK
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