426
FXUS62 KILM 141737
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1237 PM EST WED JAN 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED 18Z TAF DISCUSSION FOUND BELOW. CONFIDENCE FOR SNOWFALL
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY HAS SLIGHTLY INCREASED, WITH CHANCES
OF SNOW CREEPING UP FROM 20 TO 30%.
KEY MESSAGES
1) HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY NIGHT DUE TO GUSTY WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT.
2) ARCTIC AIR WILL BRING A SHARP COOL DOWN STARTING THURSDAY
BEHIND AN EARLY MORNING COLD FRONT. EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH WIND CHILLS AS
LOW AS THE MID TO UPR TEENS.
3) GULF MOISTURE OVERRUNNING A SECOND ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT DUE TO GUSTY WINDS AND ELEVATED
SEAS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT.
GUSTY WEST-SOUTHWEST WIND TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT WILL SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY THURSDAY AS ARCTIC AIR MOVES
INTO THE AREA. WINDS GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS EARLY TONIGHT WILL
RELAX BRIEFLY EARLY THURSDAY BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN TO 25-30
KTS TOMORROW EVENING. IN TURN, SEAS INCREASE TO 4-6 FT TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. WHILE THERE MIGHT BE A BRIEF
WINDOW DURING THE DAY THURSDAY OF SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS, AN
SCA IS IN EFFECT FOR TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT FOR PERIODS
OF HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...ARCTIC AIR WILL BRING A SHARP COOL DOWN STARTING
THURSDAY BEHIND AN EARLY MORNING COLD FRONT. EXPECT LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH
WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS THE MID TO UPR TEENS.
A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT, AND
THE HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY WILL LIKELY OCCUR AROUND
MIDNIGHT, OR SHORTLY AFTER, AS TEMPERATURES DROP QUICKLY BEHIND
THE FRONT. 850MB TEMPS RAPIDLY DROP FROM 3-4C THIS EVENING TO
-10C FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS INFLUX OF COLD AIR WILL KEEP
HIGHS THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN THE LOW TO MID 40S.
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL LEAD TO
WELL BELOW TEMPS, WITH LOWS IN THE UPR TEENS TO LWR 20S MOST
AREAS. DEPENDING ON EXACTLY HOW QUICKLY WINDS DIMINISH, IT'S
POSSIBLE THE COMBINATION OF COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND COULD
DROP WIND CHILL VALUES DOWN TO THE 15 DEGREE THRESHOLD NEEDED
FOR A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY. CONFIDENCE FOR THIS IS ABOUT 40%
IN OUR NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES, LOWER ELSEWHERE, SO WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR THE POTENTIAL HEADLINE ISSUANCE.
THIS SHOULD BE THE SECOND COLDEST ARCTIC OUTBREAK OF THE WINTER
SO FAR BEHIND THE DECEMBER 15, 2025 EVENT.
RECORD LOWS FOR FRIDAY MORNING JANUARY 16:
WILMINGTON.......10 DEGREES IN 1994
N. MYRTLE BEACH..18 DEGREES IN 1948
FLORENCE.........12 DEGREES IN 1994
LUMBERTON........10 DEGREES IN 1994, 1972, AND 1912.
CONTINUED COLD TEMPS INTO NEXT WEEK WITH A COLD WEATHER
ADVISORY POSSIBLE NEXT SUNDAY, MONDAY, AND TUESDAY NIGHTS.
KEY MESSAGE 3...GULF MOISTURE OVERRUNNING A SECOND ARCTIC COLD
FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY.
A SECOND ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH OFF THE COAST
SATURDAY NIGHT. A SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
OZARKS SATURDAY SHOULD REACH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS SUNDAY.
ENHANCED SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
TROUGH MAY ADVECT GULF MOISTURE OVER TOP OF THE 5000 FOOT DEEP
ARCTIC AIRMASS IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE, POTENTIALLY LEADING TO
SOME WINTRY PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA.
JANUARY 14 GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND SLIGHTLY IN FAVOR OF
SNOWFALL, WITH POPS NOW A BIT HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY. NEAR THE
COAST WITH WARMER AIR IN PLACE, A RAIN/SNOW MIX IS MORE LIKELY,
BUT IN GENERAL WITH THIS BEING FIVE DAYS OUT IT IS TOO EARLY
FOR ANY EXACT SNOW ACCUMULATION FORECASTS.
THE LAST WIDESPREAD MEASURABLE SNOW ACROSS OUR AREA WAS JANUARY
21-22, 2025. ADDITIONAL FLURRIES AND SNOW SHOWERS OCCURRED ON
NOVEMBER 10, 2025.
AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR WILL PREVAIL FOR MAJORITY OF THE TAF PERIOD. MID LEVEL
CLOUDS AROUND 10 KFT WILL COVER THE REGION THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING WITH INTERMITTENT LIGHT RAIN. BRIEF SCATTERING OF CLOUDS
WITH DRY AIR THIS EVENING BEFORE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS
OVERNIGHT. LOW CLOUDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, BUT
THESE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BE SCATTERED. LOW CHANCE OF MVFR FROM
3-9Z. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE JUST AHEAD OF THE
FRONT, WITH SW WINDS AROUND 30-35 KTS AT 2000 FT FROM 0-6Z, BUT
ELEVATED SURFACE WINDS WILL PRECLUDE LLWS. SKIES CLEAR EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. SOUTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THIS EVENING, WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND 20 KT, WILL SHIFT TO NW BY THURSDAY
MORNING AS FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE. WINDS GUSTS OF 25 KTS MAY BE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. LOW
CONFIDENCE IN FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS AND POSSIBLE FROZEN
PRECIPITATION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
MARINE
THROUGH THURSDAY...AS MENTIONED ABOVE, WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
BE INCREASING THIS EVENING AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WIND GUSTS OF 25+ KTS ARE
FORECASTED AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT, AND IN TURN SEAS WILL BE
INCREASING WITH BUILDING SW WIND WAVE. SEAS 4-6 FT FOR MOST OF
TONIGHT, LOWERING TO 3-5 FT FOR DAYTIME THURSDAY AS BUILDING NW
WIND WAVE BECOMES DOMINANT FEATURE WITH BREEZY OFFSHORE WINDS
BEHIND COLD FRONT. AFTER BRIEF LULL DURING THE DAY, SCA
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RE-DEVELOP THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS COLD
AIR PRODUCES WIND GUSTS OF 25-30 KTS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL
EARLY OVERNIGHT THU NIGHT FOR FREQUENT GUSTS UP TO 25 KT, BEFORE
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES INTO FRIDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OFF TO THE SOUTH. THEREAFTER, 15-20 KT SUSTAINED WINDS
WILL BE THE NORM THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, FIRST
ASSOCIATED WITH SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT, FOLLOWED
BY THE POST FRONTAL NWLY CAA SURGE WITH A LOW CHANCE OF SCA
CONDITIONS.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST FRIDAY
FOR AMZ250-252-254-256.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...MAS/VAO
KEY MESSAGES...MAS/VAO
DISCUSSION...MAS/VAO
AVIATION...VAO
MARINE...MAS/VAO
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