558
FXUS62 KILM 150506
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1206 AM EST SAT NOV 15 2025
SYNOPSIS
WARM AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY NIGHT,
BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY. RETURN FLOW BRINGS
WARMER TEMPERATURES AND A SMALL CHANCE OF A STRAY SHOWER ALONG
THE STALLED FRONT ON TUESDAY. WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
INFRARED SATELLITE SHOWS A BROAD RIDGE COVERING THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES AND SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES. CONVERGENT NORTHWESTERLY
UPPER LEVEL FLOW BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND A TROUGH OUT OVER THE
ATLANTIC WILL SUPPORT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER FLORIDA TODAY.
HERE IN THE CAROLINAS WE CAN EXPECT INCREASING COVERAGE OF
CIRRUS CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH A FEW WIND GUSTS
EXCEEDING 20 MPH. HIGHS SHOULD REACH 73-75 INLAND AND A FEW
DEGREES COOLER NEAR THE COAST.
AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES WITH THE LOSS OF SUN THIS
EVENING, AN IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD DEVELOP OVERHEAD.
BOTH GFS AND NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST 45 KNOT WINDS COULD
DESCEND AS LOW AS 1800-2000 FEET AGL OVERNIGHT. EVEN WITH MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES WIND SHEAR OF THIS MAGNITUDE TENDS TO KEEP THE
STRENGTH OF THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION ON THE WEAKER SIDE, SO
FORECAST LOWS ARE IN THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 FOR MOST AREAS.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
WARM AND BREEZY ON SUNDAY WITH THE AREA SANDWICHED BETWEEN LOW
PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN FL.
AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD EASILY REACH THE UPPER 70S WITH A FEW 80S
POSSIBLE EAST OF I-95. THE COLD FRONT BUILDING INTO THE REGION
LATE SUNDAY MAY START TO IMPACT AREAS WEST OF I-95 BEFORE SUNSET
WHICH WOULD CUT TEMPERATURES BY A DEGREE OR TWO. OUTSIDE OF A
FEW CLOUDS AND THE WIND SHIFT, THE COLD FRONT WILL QUIETLY PUSH
OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY NIGHT.
WEAKER WINDS FOLLOW THE COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
MORNING. WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION FOLLOWS ON MONDAY UNDER CLEAR
SKIES. THIS SHOULD BRING TEMPERATURES DOWN TO A FEW DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL; HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. LIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS AND DRY AIR OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
DROP INTO THE LOWER 40S OR UPPER 30S ON MONDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
OVER THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WILL BRING RETURN FLOW
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN US ON TUESDAY. THE COOLER AIR MASS IN
PLACE ON MONDAY WILL BE REPLACED BE WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING BACK TO A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
ON TUESDAY.
INCREASING CLOUD COVER ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL FOLLOW A
WEAKLY LIFTING WARM FRONT. SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL
BE PRIMARILY RESPONSIBLE FOR ANY MOISTURE ADVECTION WITH
WESTERLIES ALOFT MAINTAINING GENERALLY NEUTRAL ADVECTION.
THE WEAK SURFACE LOW TO OUR NORTHWEST WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS
IT CROSSES THE APPALACHIANS ON TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE RE-
DEVELOPING OFF OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON WEDNESDAY. WITH THE
LACK OF MOISTURE AND SYNOPTIC ENERGY DISPLACED TO THE NORTH,
EXPECT THE TRIALLING COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE CAROLINAS WITH
A FEW CLOUDS AND A LACK OF SHOWER ACTIVITY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE FRONT WILL REMAIN STATIONARY ON
WEDNESDAY, LIKELY POSITIONED NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION IN WESTERLY FLOW WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES
INTO THE MID OR UPPER 70S ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
ENSEMBLES BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS UNCERTAINTIES
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN US BEGIN TO EMERGE.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH A SECONDARY COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSS
SOME PORTION OF THE MID-ATLANTIC OR CAROLINAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. HOWEVER, LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL
US MAY STALL THE PROGRESS OF THIS COOLER AIR AND MAINTAIN
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN US.
THIS PRIMARILY IMPACTS TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY AS ENSEMBLES
BEGIN TO CONVERGE ON THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVERCOMING ANY
HIGH PRESSURE BY FRIDAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASING AND
WARMER TEMPERATURES ACHIEVING CONSENSUS.
DESPITE ANY UNCERTAINTIES WITH TEMPERATURES, DRY WEATHER IS
ANTICIPATED DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATE PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK.
THE BEST MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL REMAIN WELL WEST OF THE AREA
NEAR THE SPHERE OF INFLUENCE OF THE DEVELOPING LOW. ONSHORE FLOW
MAY SUPPORT SOME BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND MESOSCALE FEATURES
LATER NEXT WEEK, BUT THIS POTENTIAL LACKS CLARITY OUTSIDE OF 48
HOURS OR SO.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY TO DEVELOP AFTER 23Z
THIS EVENING AS A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET ORGANIZES OVERHEAD. WINDS
AT 2000 FEET AGL COULD INCREASE TO 40-45 KNOTS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK... LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR SHOULD CONTINUE AFTER
06Z SUNDAY, LASTING UP THROUGH 13-14Z SUNDAY MORNING AT WHICH
POINT DAYTIME HEATING WILL BEGIN TO MIX OUT THE LOW LEVEL JET.
SURFACE WIND GUSTS OF 25-30 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS
MIXING OUT PROCESS SUNDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT... HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE FLORIDA-GEORGIA STATE
LINE SHOULD SINK INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON, THEN INTO
SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE BAHAMAS TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN WINDS ACROSS THE CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS.
SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO 15 KNOTS THIS MORNING, THEN
TO 15-20 KNOTS BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. AFTER SUNSET, WIND
SPEEDS SHOULD INCREASE FURTHER TO 20- 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS NEAR
30 KNOTS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.
ASIDE FROM A VERY SMALL 9-SECOND SOUTHEASTERLY SWELL, SEAS
SHOULD CONSIST ALMOST ENTIRELY OF LOCAL WIND WAVES. COMBINED
SEAS OF 2-3 FEET TODAY SHOULD INCREASE TO 4-6 FEET TONIGHT,
LOCALLY TO 7 FEET SOUTHEAST OF CAPE FEAR. THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT.
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
WILL BE ONGOING ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. THE
FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY EVENING. WEAK COLD AIR
ADVECTION IS UNLIKELY TO PROLONG SCA CONDITIONS TOO FAR BEYOND
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, BUT WIND-DRIVEN SEAS MAY TAKE A FEW HOURS
TO FALL BELOW THE 6 FOOT THRESHOLD. NO CHANGES TO THE INITIAL
TIMING OF THE SCA FOR NOW.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE
DRIFTS WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY AND THE FIRST
HALF OF TUESDAY. ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON, HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE AND A DEVELOPING LOW OVER THE CENTRAL US WILL BRING
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY
FOR AMZ250-252-254-256.
SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM...21
AVIATION...TRA
MARINE...TRA/21
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