406
FXUS62 KILM 250623
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
223 AM EDT THU JUN 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS IS LATE SUNDAY
WITH A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT. DANGEROUS HEAT REMAINS POSSIBLE
NEXT WEEK.
KEY MESSAGES
1) HEAT AND HUMIDITY RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND. RAIN CHANCES
INCREASE AS WELL.
2) DANGEROUS HEAT REMAINS POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
HEAT AND HUMIDITY RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND.
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE AS WELL.
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL SOLIDIFY SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ON
FRIDAY. MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND A BUILDING RIDGE TO OUR SOUTHEAST
WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW AND MID-90S. DESPITE THE
ADVECTION OF SURFACE MOISTURE, BOUNDARY LAYER RH INDICATES THAT
SOME LINGERING DRY AIR ALOFT WILL MIX DOWN ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS SHOULD KEEP MINIMUM DEW POINTS IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S, TO
AROUND 70 AT THE COAST; HEAT INDICES HOLDING AROUND 100.
INCREMENTAL INCREASES IN HEAT AND HUMIDITY ON SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY BRING US CLOSE TO (OR EXCEEDING) HEAT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS
ACROSS THE REGION EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER
90S TO NEAR 100. STAY HYDRATED, TAKE BREAKS, CHECK-IN ON
NEIGHBORS WITH HIGHER SUSCEPTIBILITY TO EXTREME HEAT, AND NEVER
LEAVE KIDS OR PETS UNATTENDED IN VEHICLES.
SCATTERED DIURNAL AND SEA-BREEZE DRIVEN CONVECTION RETURNING
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY COULD OFFER SOME RELIEF FROM THE HEAT FOR
SOME LOCATIONS. HOT DAYTIME TEMPERATURES AND FOCUSED SURFACE
LIFT ALONG A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORMS LATE SUNDAY. WITH SOME DRY AIR ALOFT, A STRONG
WIND GUST WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A FEW STORMS. ENSEMBLE
PROBABILITIES FAVOR CONVECTION ARRIVING ON SUNDAY EVENING.
KEY MESSAGE 2
DANGEROUS HEAT REMAINS POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK.
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHWARD LATE SUNDAY AND EARLY
MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING LOWER DEW POINTS AND DRAG TEMPERATURES
BACK INTO THE MID 90S THROUGH TUESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
TAKE SHAPE OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY ON TUESDAY, BAKING A
LARGE PORTION OF THE EASTERN US THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THESE
HOT TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH OUR CLIMATOLOGICAL DEW POINTS
COULD LEAD TO PROLONGED AND DANGEROUS HEAT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES ARE WIDELY FAVORING DANGEROUS HEAT
OCCURRING THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK, BUT THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN HOW EXTREME TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS WILL BE.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC (OFF OF
THE SC COAST) MAY PERSIST FOR A PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WOULD
FUNNEL LOWER DEW POINTS AND COOLER 925-850 MB TEMPS INTO THE
REGION THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK, SOFTENING THE CURRENTLY EXTREME
OUTLOOK. IN SUPPORT OF THIS OPERATIONAL SOLUTION FOUND IN THE
GFS AND ECMWF, MSLP ENSEMBLES CLUSTERS WITH THE HIGHEST
MEMBERSHIP FAVOR SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES THAN THE ENSEMBLE
MEAN DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN US AND VAGUE
HINTS AT THE TRAPPED SURFACE LOW TO OUR SOUTHEAST. DESPITE THESE
SIGNALS, CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO STRAY FROM THE
ONGOING MESSAGE: A PROLONGED PERIOD OF DANGEROUS HEAT IS
POSSIBLE LATE NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS INLAND THIS MORNING WILL BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY
THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BE SLIGHTLY STRONGER AT THE
COAST BEHIND A SEA BREEZE.
EXTENDED FORECAST... PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
MORNINGS. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DOMINATE. SCATTERED
DIURNAL AND SEA-BREEZE DRIVEN CONVECTION RETURNS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. MORE ORGANIZED AND WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES
ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE AREA.
MARINE
LIGHT WINDS TODAY WILL BECOME DOMINATED BY THE SEA BREEZE
DURING THE AFTERNOON. BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES RE-
ESTABLISHED TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW INCREASES.
SEAS AROUND 2 FEET TODAY, INCREASING TO 2-3 ON FRIDAY. SOUTHERLY
FLOW INCREASES ON SATURDAY (UP TO 20 KNOTS SUSTAINED AT TIMES)
AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRAVERSES THE MID-ATLANTIC. WIND
WAVES DOMINATE THE WAVE SPECTRUM AT 3-4 FEET, 4-5 FEET IN THE
OFFSHORE WATERS. RECREATIONAL BOATERS SHOULD BE CAUTIOUS IN AREA
INLETS ON SATURDAY. WITH THE SURFACE LOW MOVING OFFSHORE ON
SUNDAY, WINDS RETURN TO 10-15 KNOTS. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL
DROP SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL PEAK AROUND 15 KNOTS ON
MONDAY AFTERNOON. SEAS INCREASE TO 3-4 FEET IN THE NEARSHORE
WATERS, 4-5 FEET IN OFFSHORE NC WATERS.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...21
KEY MESSAGES...21/CBL
DISCUSSION...21/CBL
AVIATION...21/CBL
MARINE...21/CBL
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