662
FXUS62 KILM 180013
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
813 PM EDT TUE MAR 17 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
KEY MESSAGES
1)FREEZING LOW TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT TWO NIGHTS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...FREEZING LOW TEMPERATURES FOR THE NEXT TWO
NIGHTS.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
THERE IS STILL A VERY DEEP TROUGH IN THE EAST, ALBEIT A
WEAKENING ONE. HIGH PRESSURE HAS BEEN DRIVEN INTO THE GULF
STATES BY THIS TROUGH AND LOCALLY WE'VE COLD ADVECTED TO ABOUT
-6C AT 850MB. WITH OUR RECENT STINT OF WARM WEATHER THE GROWING
SEASON HAS BEEN DECLARED STARTED AND TONIGHT WILL BE SUPPORTIVE
OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES. THERE ISN'T A TREMENDOUS AMOUNT OF
VARIANCE IN TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE THOUGH SOME OF THE 'WARMER'
NUMBERS DO SHOW THAT OUR LIGHT N WINDS MAKE IT HARD TO RADIATE
BELOW FREEZING. WITH THE MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE STILL SHOWING A
FREEZE HAVE NOT MADE ANY CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FREEZE WARNING
WHICH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL ZONES. IN ADDITION TO THE LIGHT
N WIND OVERNIGHT SOME CIRRUS LEVEL MOISTURE COULD COMPLICATE THE
SOLIDITY OF OUR FREEZE POTENTIAL. THE PROCESS MAY REPEAT
TOMORROW NIGHT FOR NORTHERN AND INTERIOR LOCALES INCLUDING THE
COMPLICATION OF HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS. WINDS SPEEDS COULD INCREASE
AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH SOME HIGH CIRRUS STREAMING OVERHEAD, BUT
WITH NO MAJOR IMPACTS TO TERMINALS.
EXTENDED FORECAST...VFR LIKELY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
MARINE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY... HIGH PRESSURE SPANNING FROM DC TO THE GULF
STATES WILL KEEP WINDS OUT OF THE N TO NW. A SUBTLE SHIFT OF THE
CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL ADD A FEW KNOTS OF WIND SPEED OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY THAT WILL REVERSE LATER WEDNESDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS
DRAWS CLOSER TO THE COAST. THE 3-4 SECOND WIND CHOP WILL BE
COINCIDENT WITH A 8-9 SECOND SWELL FROM THE SE.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY... FAIRLY BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS
CONTINUE FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA. GOOD CHANCE FOR A COLD FROPA LATE IN THE PERIOD,
WITH S/SW WINDS INCREASING UP TO 15-20 KT AHEAD OF THE FRONT DUE TO
A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT. SEAS CONSISTENTLY IN THE 2-4 FT
RANGE, WHICH INCLUDES A 9-10 SECOND ESE SWELL COMPONENT.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ087-096-
099-105>110.
SC...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR SCZ017-023-
024-032-033-039-054>056-058-059.
MARINE...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...MBB
KEY MESSAGES...MAS/MBB
DISCUSSION...MAS/MBB
AVIATION...LEW
MARINE...MAS/MBB
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