322
FXUS62 KILM 121315
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
915 AM EDT TUE MAY 12 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AS OF 9 AM EDT, MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SIGNIFICANTLY OVERESTIMATED
THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR INTRUSION. LATEST GOES-16 VISIBLE
SATELLITE FEED SHOWS PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
AT 5000-8000 FT. THESE CLOUDS ARE STILL HERE TO STAY FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS AT LEAST.
AS A RESULT, I BROUGHT DOWN THE HOURLY TEMPERATURE FORECAST,
ALONG WITH THE FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR TODAY. CMC AND GFS
BOTH FAVORED THE COOLER TRENDS, SO THE FORECAST WAS BLENDED WITH
THOSE IN MIND. ALL OTHER FORECAST PARAMETERS REMAIN IN PLACE
WITH WHAT WAS GIVEN OVERNIGHT LAST NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGES
1) THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER REMAINS VERY LOW
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER REMAINS
VERY LOW THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MOSTLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE PREVAILS. SOME MOSTLY LIGHT SHOWERS ARE LIKELY LATE WED
NIGHT WITH A WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE, ESPECIALLY IN NC.
INSTABILITY APPEARS QUITE MINIMAL BUT CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW RUMBLES
OF THUNDER. BULK SHEAR VALUES WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORMS
BUT AS USUAL INSTABILITY APPEARS WEAK ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA GIVEN
THE MORE UNFAVORABLE TIME OF DAY SO WE'RE NOT ANTICIPATING ANY
SEVERE STORMS AT THIS TIME. THE NBM CONTINUES TO SHOW VERY LOW RAIN
CHANCES THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER RIDGE IN SUPPRESSING CONVECTION AS
SHOWERS/STORMS COULD BECOME A BIT MORE LIKELY, ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE COAST WHERE MOISTURE WILL BE GREATEST ALONG THE SEA BREEZE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
BEFORE RISING ABOVE NORMAL STARTING SATURDAY AS DEEP HIGH
PRESSURE STRENGTHENS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH NEAR 90 INLAND
SATURDAY WITH LOWER 90S EARLY NEXT WEEK. FORTUNATELY, MOISTURE
LEVELS WILL BE HELD IN CHECK SO MAX HEAT INDICES SHOULDN'T BE
MUCH HIGHER THAN THE AIR TEMPS.
AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR. SOME SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS ARE AROUND OUR AREA WITH NO
IMPACTS TO AIRPORTS EXPECTED. N/NE WINDS AROUND 10 KTS IN THE
MORNING WITH WINDS TURNING MORE EASTERLY WITH THE AFTERNOON
SEABREEZE. ONLY HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY WITH
PERHAPS SOME 5KFT STRATOCU IN THE AFTERNOON. RESTRICTIONS
TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
EXTENDED FORECAST...VFR SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.
POTENTIAL FOR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS INCREASES WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT
LATE WEDNESDAY. VFR SHOULD RETURN THROUGH THE REST OF THE
PERIOD.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT... ELEVATED SEAS WITH STRONG NE FLOW WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE AM HOURS WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN
PLACE. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE EASTERLY WITH THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE.
BY TONIGHT, EASTERLY WINDS WILL BE ~15 KTS WITH SEAS 3-5 FT.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFFSHORE
WILL PREVAIL UNTIL A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WED NIGHT.
ANOTHER WIND SURGE IS EXPECTED THU NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
WITH A SHOT OF COLD ADVECTION. THE HIGH WILL THEN SHIFT OFFSHORE
LATE WEEK WITH CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ106-
108-110.
SC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ054-
056.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ250-
252.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ254-
256.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...IGB
KEY MESSAGES...RJB
DISCUSSION...RJB
AVIATION...LEW
MARINE...RJB/LEW
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