662
FXUS62 KILM 120650
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
150 AM EST WED NOV 12 2025
SYNOPSIS
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND STARTS TODAY, WITH WINDS DECREASING
BY TONIGHT, AS ANOTHER DRY COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO INCREASE EVERYDAY, BECOMING ABOVE
NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
SURFACE HIGH REMAINS CENTERED SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND EVENTUALLY A DRY COLD FRONT
DROPPING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT RESPECTIVELY.
SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE HIGH IS ENHANCED BY
THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH TODAY, RAMPING UP WARM ADVECTION AND PUSHING
HIGHS INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S. WHILE THIS WILL FEEL BALMY COMPARED
TO THE MID TO UPPER 40S SEEN TUE, IT IS STILL 5-ISH DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. ENHANCEMENT OF THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL ALSO LEAD TO ANOTHER
DAY OF BREEZY CONDITIONS. WHILE NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS ON TUE GUSTS
20-25 MPH FROM MID-MORNING THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON WILL BE POSSIBLE.
VERY DRY AIR REMAINS IN PLACE AND AFTERNOON HUMIDITY WILL BE DOWN
AROUND 30%.
THE PASSAGE OF THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL BE BARELY PERCEPTIBLE
WITH THE ONLY INDICATION BEING WINDS BECOMING SLIGHTLY MORE
WESTERLY. SKIES WILL REMAIN NEARLY CLOUD FREE. TONIGHT'S DRY COLD
FRONT, WHICH DOESN'T REALLY HAVE ANY COLD AIR WITH IT, WILL BRING A
MORE NOTICEABLE SHIFT IN THE WINDS WITH NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING
AFTER MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER, SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR. LOWS TONIGHT END
UP BELOW NORMAL, BUT ONLY BY A FEW DEGREES. MIXING ALL NIGHT WILL
LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING AND WOULD NOT BE SHOCKED TO SEE LOWS END
UP A DEGREE OR 2 WARMER THAN FORECAST.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
QUIET FORECAST FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD, AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE
TO WARM UP. DRY, WEAK FRONT WILL BE WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA BY
THURSDAY MORNING, AND WHILE IT DOES PROVIDE SOME MOISTURE RETURN,
IT'LL BARELY BE NOTICEABLE. IT WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES A BIT
WARMER, IN ADDITION TO AIR MASS MODIFICATION CONTINUING WITH HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. HIGHS NEARLY IDENTICAL THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...GENERALLY IN THE MID 60S. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE MID-TO-
UPPER 30S INLAND, LOWER 40S AT THE COAST. CALMER WINDS THAT NIGHT
MAY ALLOW FOR SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING, MEANING THAT THE USUAL COLD
SPOTS IN PARTS OF BLADEN AND PENDER COUNTIES MAY SEE LOWS NEAR
FREEZING. FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW-TO-MID 40S.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST. RIDGING OVER
THE CENTRAL CONUS DOESN'T LOOK AS POTENT THIS FORECAST CYCLE, WITH
AN UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH SLIDING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
LATE IN THE WEEKEND ACTING TO PUSH DOWN THE PARENT HIGH IN THE GULF.
STILL EXPECTING A CONSIDERABLE WARMUP THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH
HIGHS REACHING WELL INTO THE 70S. TROUGH LOOKS QUITE ACTIVE, BUT IT
APPEARS TOO FAR NORTH TO REALLY AFFECT THE SENSIBLE WEATHER AROUND
THESE PARTS (I.E., NO RAIN). IT DOES MANAGE TO PUSH YET ANOTHER DRY
FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY, WHICH ONLY ACTS TO INCREASE THE
WINDS, WHERE GUSTS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AT 20-25 MPH COULD BE
POSSIBLE.
TROUGH AXIS PUSHES OFFSHORE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, AND THE FLOW ALOFT
ACTS A BIT MORE ZONAL (OR AT LEAST, QUASI-ZONAL). WINDS COME DOWN,
BUT HIGH TEMPERATURES STILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER 70S MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD. INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
THIS MORNING WILL LEAD TO LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR FOR INLAND SITES.
CLOSER TO THE COAST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW IS A LITTLE STRONGER,
KEEPING WIND SHEAR IN CHECK. WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS TODAY WITH GUSTS
AROUND 25KT NEAR THE COAST AND CLOSER TO 20KT INLAND DEVELOPING MID-
MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH MID-ATERNOON. PASSAGE OF DRY COLD
FRONT TONIGHT WILL VEER WINDS TO NORTHWESTERLY, BUT THE FRONT LACKS
ANY REAL COLD ADVECTION AND SPEEDS WILL BE 10KT OR LESS.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT...SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS TODAY WILL
BE ENHANCED BY APPROACHING DRY COLD. SOLID 20-25 KT FLOW FROM
THE SOUTHWEST TODAY INTO TONIGHT WARRANTS CONTINUING THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ALL ZONES. THE ENHANCED SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
PUSH SEAS OVER 6 FT ACROSS SOME OF THE OUTER WATERS. ONCE THE
FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE WATERS, ROUGHLY AROUND MIDNIGHT, WINDS
WILL BECOME OFFSHORE. THERE IS MINIMAL COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT
AND THE LACK OF COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN OFFSHORE FLOW
UNDER 20 KT JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT AND 15 KT OR LESS BY DAYBREAK.
SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 3-6 FT THROUGH THE EVENING BEFORE DROPPING
UNDER 5 FT AROUND MIDNIGHT AND TO 2-3 FT BY DAWN ON THU. THE
DOMINANT WAVE WILL BE THE SOUTHWEST WIND WAVE WITH A WEAK
SOUTHEAST SWELL ALSO PRESENT.
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...NNW WINDS AT 10-15 KTS GRADUALLY BACK
DOWN TO NEAR 10 KTS THROUGHOUT THE DAY THURSDAY, WITH 2-3 FT
SEAS MAKING A RAPID DECLINE DOWN TO 1-2 FT. WINDS CONTINUE TO
DECREASE TO BELOW 10 KTS FRIDAY, WITH A VARIABLE DIRECTION.
WESTERLY WINDS SATURDAY BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY BY SUNDAY, WHERE
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP CONSIDERABLY. MAY NEED A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ250-252-
254-256.
SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...III
SHORT TERM...IGB
LONG TERM...IGB
AVIATION...III
MARINE...III/IGB
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