972
FXUS62 KILM 130015
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
715 PM EST THU FEB 12 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION...00Z TAF ISSUANCE DISCUSSION UPDATED.
1230 PM CHANGES...
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR A BENEFICIAL RAINFALL EVENT LATE IN
THE COMING WEEKEND.
KEY MESSAGES
1) BENEFICIAL RAINFALL EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...BENEFICIAL RAINFALL EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
THE LATEST GUIDANCE HAS SHOWN INCREASING RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY
WITH A SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS LATE IN THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MOST OF THE SIGNIFICANT RAIN IS CENTERED
AROUND LATE SUNDAY MORNING INTO THE EVENING WHEN LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE IS ALIGNED WITH MID LEVEL DIFFLUENCE WITH HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES. ENSEMBLE NUMBERS STILL SHOW A WIDE
RANGE OF QPF AMOUNTS BUT TOTALS A FEW TICKS ABOVE OR BELOW 0.75
INCHES STILL SEEMS A GOOD PLAY.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR THRU THE PERIOD. WEAK CAA SURGE OVERNIGHT INTO FRI AS A
SPEED MAX ALOFT PASSES BY. WILL OBSERVE MAINLY CIRRUS AT 20K FT
WITH FEW/SCT ALTOCU AT 12K FT POSSIBLE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PASSING IMPULSE. CALM WINDS THIS EVENING WILL GIVE WAY TO NNW-
NNE WINDS AROUND 5 KT DURING THE PREDAWN HRS AS A WEAK SFC TROF
PUSHES THRU, A REFLECTION FROM THE IMPULSE ALOFT. WINDS
GENERALLY NNW-NNE 6 TO 9 KT DURING DAYLIGHT FRI.
EXTENDED FORECAST...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILING. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
AFFECTS THE AREA.
MARINE
THROUGH FRIDAY...
LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE BRIEFLY
AS THE GRADIENT BECOMES COMPRESSED, GUSTS SHOULD NOT EXCEED 20
KNOTS LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE
OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY WITH QUIET MARINE CONDITIONS
RETURNING.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
CONDITIONS WILL TRANSITION FROM RATHER TRANQUIL TO SOMEWHAT
BLUSTERY BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND AS A STORM SYSTEM MOVES
ACROSS. A MODEST NORTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE WIND DIRECTION WILL
GIVE WAY TO A SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASING TO 15-20 PERHAPS 25
KNOTS AT TIMES. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL EVENTUALLY DEVELOP INTO
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA AS WELL.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...DCH
KEY MESSAGES...SHK
DISCUSSION...
AVIATION...DCH
MARINE...SHK/21
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