130
FXUS62 KILM 081059
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
659 AM EDT FRI AUG 8 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH CONTINUES TO BRING COOLER
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AND UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
AND PERHAPS EVEN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE
WILL ALSO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD THIS WEEKEND. THE WEDGE OF COOLER
AIR SHOULD START TO BREAK BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, STARTING A
WARMING TREND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
THE AUGUST CAD WEDGE REMAINS IN PLACE TODAY WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE WELL OFF TO
THE EAST. CLOUD COVERAGE ISN'T EXPECTED TO BE AS STUBBORN TODAY AS
THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS, BUT LOW STRATUS WILL LINGER THROUGH LATE
MORNING BEFORE IMPROVING MIDDAY. UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER AGAIN IN
STORE FOR TODAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S COMBINING WITH SUMMERTIME
DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S. SOME MID-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BRING ANOTHER
DAY OF RAIN CHANCES, MAINLY ACROSS COASTAL COUNTIES WITH THE HIGHER
PWATS. UPPER SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE AREA WILL EXIT
MIDDAY LEADING TO NVA, COMBINING WITH LACK OF A DECENT SEA BREEZE TO
LIMIT SHOWER COVERAGE TO WIDELY SCATTERED. STEERING FLOW AGAIN IS
FAIRLY WEAK, SO ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED
HEAVY RAIN. LOW TEMPS TONIGHT AROUND 70F.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE WILL BE OFF THE NC COAST MOVING FURTHER OUT TO
SEA INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. RIDGING HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR WEST REMAINS
IN THE AREA WITH NE WINDS AND IT WILL BECOME THE DOMINANT FEATURE
DRIVING THE FORECAST. THIS MEANS COOLER HIGHS JUST A BIT BELOW
NORMAL IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. RAIN CHANCES WILL HAVE A SLIGHT SKEW
WITH DRIER CONDITIONS NE AND WETTER SW. HEADED INTO SUNDAY, IT LOOKS
LIKE RIDGING BUILDS IN BEHIND THE LOW FROM THE SW AND AN AREA OF
VORTICITY EXTENDING FROM THE OFFSHORE LOW GETS CAUGHT UP IN THE
SURGE FROM THE SW. THIS COULD INCREASE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS
SUNDAY PARTICULARLY IN THE AFTERNOON, AGAIN MORE FOR OUR SW AREAS,
IF ACCOMPANIED BY ENOUGH MOISTURE TO COMBAT THE WEDGING HIGH.
SATURDAY RAINFALL DOESN'T APPEAR TO BE TOO MUCH OF A THREAT DUE TO
THAT DRIER AIR BUT WINDS ALOFT WILL BE VERY LIGHT SO STORMS MIGHT
NOT HAVE MUCH MOVEMENT TO THEM. SUNDAY SHOULD SEE A BIT MORE
RAINFALL POSSIBLE ACROSS THE BOARD IF THE SW SURGE BRINGS SOME
DEEPER MOISTURE WITH IT.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
LINGERING FORCING ALOFT AROUND THE HIGH TO OUR NORTH AND CONTINUED
PUSHING OF MOISTURE IN FROM THE SW COULD LEAD TO HIGHER RAINFALL
ACTIVITY MONDAY. TUESDAY ONWARDS COULD SEE A DECREASE IN RAINFALL
COVERAGE AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE WELL TO
OUR NORTH WITH ONLY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THE
PATTERN STARTS TO BECOME MORE SUMMERLIKE WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION
POSSIBLE DAY TO DAY IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH THE SEA BREEZE AND
PIEDMONT TROUGH, TEMPERATURES WARMING TO NEAR OR EVEN ABOVE NORMAL
BY MID WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR CEILINGS ACROSS THE AREA WILL IMPROVE LATE
THIS MORNING/MIDDAY AS CLOUDS START TO BREAK UP AND CEILINGS
LIFT, WITH VFR CONDITIONS FORECASTED AREA-WIDE BY 18-20Z. WITH
HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE STILL IN PLACE, EXPECT A RETURN OF LOW
CEILINGS TONIGHT. WINDS REMAIN OUT OF THE NNE. CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDER THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY AT COASTAL
TERMINALS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS TO FLIGHT CATEGORIES MAY
CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND DUE TO EITHER SPOTTY AFTERNOON
CONVECTION OR CONTINUED INFLUENCE FROM THE WEDGE BRINGING LOW
CEILINGS. MORE OF THE SAME IS POSSIBLE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK,
THOUGH THE WEDGE MAY START TO BREAK BY TUESDAY.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE REMAINS IN PLACE INLAND,
MAINTAINING NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE LOCAL COASTAL WATERS THROUGH
TONIGHT, WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 10-15 KTS AND GUSTS AROUND 20KT,
PARTICULARLY THROUGH MIDDAY TODAY. SEAS 2-3 FT DUE TO ENE SWELL.
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...LOW PRESSURE WELL OFF THE NC COAST WILL
CONTINUE OUT TO SEA INTO SUNDAY. NE WINDS ~10-15 KTS WILL BECOME
MORE EASTERLY AND ONSHORE AOB 10 KTS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILDS BACK IN. SEAS 2-3 FT TO START THE
PERIOD RELAXING TO GENERALLY 2 FT EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NCZ108.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...VAO
SHORT TERM...LEW
LONG TERM...LEW
AVIATION...VAO
MARINE...VAO/LEW
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