381
FXUS62 KILM 291749
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1249 PM EST MON DEC 29 2025
SYNOPSIS
CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO ARRIVE BEHIND THIS EVENING'S COLD FRONT.
THIS AIRMASS WILL BRING COLD WEATHER THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES RETURN. THE NEXT SYSTEM SHOULD BRING GOOD CHANCES
FOR SOME MUCH NEEDED RAIN ON SATURDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
A STRONG COLD FRONT IS MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE CAROLINAS AND
SHOULD BE OFF THE COAST BY 7 PM. AS SOMETIMES HAPPENS WITH WESTWARD-
MOVING FRONTS, THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS HAS
SPLIT THE FEATURE INTO TWO PARTS: A SOUTHERN PORTION ZIPPING
EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA, AND A SLOWER NORTHERN SEGMENT MOVING
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NC'S WESTERN PIEDMONT. SHALLOW CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS COULD DROP A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH IN SPOTS BEFORE
CLEARING OFF BY COAST BY 4-5 PM. FORECAST MEASURABLE RAIN CHANCES
ARE 30-40 PERCENT.
SHALLOW MIXING AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAS ALREADY PRODUCED WIND GUSTS
NEAR 30 MPH. DEEPER MIXING AS COLD ADVECTION BEGINS BEHIND THE FRONT
COULD BRING DOWN SOME 35 MPH GUSTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
EVENING. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. I'M BUMPED
UP NBM LOWS TOWARD THE WARMER GFS/ECMWF MOS NUMBERS FOR MOST
LOCATIONS WITH LOWER 30S ANTICIPATED NEAR THE COAST AND UPPER 20S
INLAND.
A DRY AND COLD CANADIAN AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TUESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER EASTERN TX BUILDS SLOWLY EASTWARD. HIGHS
SHOULD ONLY REACH 46-48 UNDER FULL SUNSHINE.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
QUIET BUT COLD WEATHER SLATED FOR THE SHORT TERM. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE OVER TX SO WHILE COLD LOCALLY WE
SHOULDN'T DECOUPLE AND RADIATE. ON WEDNESDAY EVEN THOUGH A LIGHT
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS, VERTICAL MIXING IS PROGGED TO BE CAPPED
AT 3KFT KEEPING HIGHS ABOUT A CATEGORY BELOW CLIMO. LIGHT BUT NOT
CALM WINDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BRING LOWS THAT ARE CLOSER TO
NORMAL.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THURSDAY IS A TRANSITIONAL DAY WHERE THE TX HIGH BECOMES CENTERED
OVER FL AND A WEAK FRONT/TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH. FRIDAY WILL BRING A
MINOR UPTICK IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AS OUR LOCAL STREAMLINES FIND
THEMSELVES BETWEEN THE FL HIGH AND LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST ACROSS THE GULF STATES. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE APACE IN THE WARM
ADVECTION AND RESULTING ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE FRIDAY WITH RAIN
OVERSPREADING THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WITH THE FLAT
SURFACE WAVE AND FRONT ONLY BISECTING THE AREA INITIALLY ON SATURDAY
BEFORE BOTH GET SHUNTED TO THE SOUTH WE SHOULD BE IN THE RELATIVE
SWEET SPOT FOR SOME GOOD DROUGHT RELEIF. SEASONABLE AND RAIN-FREE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS THIS
AFTERNOON BRINGING A SOME SHALLOW CONVECTIVE SHOWERS, VEERING WINDS,
AND WIND GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS. MVFR CEILINGS COULD BE BRIEFLY JOINED BY
MVFR VISIBILITY IN THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS BEFORE THIS ACTIVITY PUSHES
OFFSHORE BETWEEN 20-21. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR THROUGHOUT
THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT WHICH SHOULD BE OFFSHORE NO LATER THAN 22-
23Z. SOME GUSTY WINDS COULD CONTINUE AS LATE AS 06Z ALONG THE COAST
BEFORE SETTLING DOWN OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR UNTIL RAIN AND LOW CLOUDS ARRIVE SATURDAY.
MARINE
THROUGH TUESDAY...BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
SHOULD SHIFT WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY BY LATE AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT
BLASTS OFFSHORE. SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KNOTS COULD GUST OVER 30
KNOTS FOR SEVERAL HOURS BEHIND THE FRONT AS COLDER AIR BUILDS ACROSS
THE AREA. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR OUR
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY. MARINERS VENTURING OUT BEYOND
20 MILES FROM SHORE SHOULD BE AWARE A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR
THIS AREA WHICH INCLUDES THE FRYING PAN SHOALS BUOY AND TOWER.
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ARKLATEX REGION WILL SLOWLY BUILD
EASTWARD TUESDAY WITH DIMINISHING NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ANTICIPATED.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY... NW TO W WINDS EASE TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY ALLOWING SEAS TO RUN AT JUST AROUND 2 FT. A WEAK
FRONT/SFC TROUGH THURSDAY DOES BUILD WIND AND SEAS BUT ONLY BACK TO
MORE 'TYPICAL' COOL SEASON VALUES. FLOW TURNS BACK TO THE SW LATER
FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS SYSTEM WILL
MOVE NEARLY ACROSS THE REGION LEADING TO SOME
VARIABILITY/UNCERTAINTY IN THE LATE PERIOD WIND FORECAST. IT WILL BE
WEAK THOUGH AND WIND/SEAS WON'T BE AS PROBLEMATIC TO MOST MARINERS
AS MUCH AS THE POSSIBLE LOWERED VISIBILITY FROM WIDESPREAD RAIN.
CLIMATE
THROUGH DECEMBER 28 OBSERVED AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR THE MONTH OF
DECEMBER HAVE BEEN:
WILMINGTON.............46.6 DEGREES (3.3 BELOW NORMAL)
NORTH MYRTLE BEACH.....47.4 DEGREES (2.5 BELOW NORMAL)
FLORENCE...............45.6 DEGREES (3.4 BELOW NORMAL)
LUMBERTON..............44.3 DEGREES (3.4 BELOW NORMAL)
USING OUR FORECAST HIGHS AND LOWS TO COMPUTE DAILY AVERAGES THROUGH
DECEMBER 31 AND PLUGGING THAT INTO THE COMPLETE CALENDAR YEAR SHOWS
THAT 2025 WILL LIKELY BE THE COOLEST YEAR SINCE 2014 FOR MOST OF OUR
AREA. THIS IS DESPITE THE SIX MONTH PERIOD FEBRUARY-JULY 2025 BEING
THE FIRST OR SECOND WARMEST DURING THOSE SAME 12 YEARS! A VERY COLD
JANUARY PLUS CONSISTENTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS STARTING IN AUGUST HAVE
BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR KNOCKING THE ANNUAL AVERAGE TEMPS SO LOW.
ANNUAL AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
YEAR...2025|2024|2023|2022|2021|2020|2019|2018|2017|2016|2015|2014
ILM....64.3|66.0|66.3|65.8|65.7|66.3|66.3|65.1|65.8|65.2|65.3|63.7
CRE....64.1|65.7|65.0|64.1|64.3|66.4|65.8|65.0|65.5|65.3|65.5|63.0
FLO....64.6|66.3|65.2|65.2|65.2|66.2|66.3|65.7|65.5|65.6|65.9|63.5
LBT....63.4|65.4|64.4|64.6|64.3|64.6|65.3|64.5|64.5|64.5|65.2|62.1
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-
256.
SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...TRA
MARINE...ILM
CLIMATE...TRA
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