860
FXUS62 KILM 270616
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
216 AM EDT SUN SEP 27 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS MORNING'S
HIGH TIDE AT THE BEACHES AND ALONG THE RIVER IN DOWNTOWN
WILMINGTON. FORECAST LOWS HAVE BEEN TWEAKED 1-2 DEGREES COOLER
TONIGHT AWAY THE CAPE FEAR AREA. THE ONSET OF SHOWER CHANCES
HAS BEEN PUSHED BACK TO SATURDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) MINOR COASTAL FLOODING SHOULD CONTINUE DURING MOST HIGH
TIDES THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
2) CANADIAN AIR WILL MODIFY THIS WEEK WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED
TO LAST THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...MINOR COASTAL FLOODING SHOULD CONTINUE DURING MOST HIGH
TIDES THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
A CHECK OF TIDE GAUGES THIS MORNING SHOWS WATER LEVEL ANOMALIES
RANGING FROM +1.3 FEET AT MYRTLE BEACH TO +1.7 FEET AT
WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH, A CONSEQUENCE OF STRONG LOW PRESSURE EAST OF
THE NJ COAST AND BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW COVERING THE ENTIRE US
EAST COAST. EVEN AFTER THE LOW WEAKENS AND MOVES AWAY FROM THE
EAST COAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, IT WILL TAKE TIME FOR THIS
MUCH WATER TO DRAIN AWAY FROM THE COAST. THE LATEST PETSS
GUIDANCE SHOWS EVEN BY WEDNESDAY THERE SHOULD STILL BE TIDAL
ANOMALIES AROUND +1.0 FEET NORTH OF CAPE FEAR.
THE HIGHEST WATER LEVEL OF THIS ENTIRE EVENT FOR US MAY OCCUR
THIS MORNING. AFTER TWEAKING GUIDANCE FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS,
WE'RE FORECASTING WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH TO REACH 7.0 FEET MLLW AND
MYRTLE BEACH TO REACH 7.5 FEET MLLW DURING THIS MORNING'S 8 AM
HIGH TIDE. BOTH ARE ONE FOOT ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. SUBSEQUENT HIGH
TIDES OVER THE COMING DAYS WILL LIKELY EXCEED FLOOD STAGE AS
WELL, BUT SHOULD NOT REACH THE MAGNITUDE OF THIS MORNING'S TIDE.
ON THE CAPE FEAR RIVER AT DOWNTOWN WILMINGTON OUR FORECAST IS
FOR 5.9 FEET MLLW DURING THE 10:30 AM HIGH TIDE, ABOUT 0.4 FEET
ABOVE FLOOD STAGE.
KEY MESSAGE 2...CANADIAN AIR WILL MODIFY THIS WEEK WITH DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.
CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE EAST COAST WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST WEAKENS AND LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD. HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE
SURFACE THROUGH THE UPPER LEVELS SHOULD DEVELOP OVER OR JUST
EAST OF THE CAROLINA COAST. SINKING AIR WITHIN THE DEVELOPING
RIDGE ALOFT SHOULD LEAD TO A PRONOUNCED SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
WHICH SHOULD MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE BY SATURDAY AND FORECAST CONFIDENCE
DECREASES. THE RIDGE COULD REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA, OR THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL MOISTURE TO BEGIN ARRIVING FROM THE
SOUTH. FORECAST RAIN CHANCES OF 30-40 PERCENT ARE ONLY ABOUT 10
PERCENT ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY FOR EARLY OCTOBER GIVEN THE LARGE
UNCERTAINTY.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COMING 24 HOURS. DAYTIME
MIXING COULD TRANSPORT DOWN SOME 15-20 KT GUSTS TODAY,
PARTICULARLY AT KLBT AND KILM.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR. THERE IS A LOW POTENTIAL FOR MORNING
GROUND FOG TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
MARINE
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...990 MB LOW PRESSURE JUST EAST OF THE
NEW JERSEY COASTLINE SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN LATER TODAY AND THEN
WILL LIFT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. BROAD
CYCLONIC FLOW COVERING THE EAST COAST WILL BRING LIGHT TO
MODERATE WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY.
EAST-NORTHEASTERLY BACKSWELL AT 12 SECOND PERIOD WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY, DECREASING IN AMPLITUDE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY. WITHIN 20 MILES OF SHORE, SEAS SHOULD AVERAGE NO HIGHER
THAN 3 FEET NEAR CAPE FEAR AND ONLY 2 FEET WEST OF CAPE FEAR.
AS WINDS AND SWELL BOTH DECREASE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, SOME
TRULY IDEAL MARINE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH ONLY 1-2
FOOT SEAS AND WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
NCZ106-108-110.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NCZ107.
SC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
SCZ054-056.
MARINE...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...TRA
KEY MESSAGES...TRA
DISCUSSION...TRA
AVIATION...TRA
MARINE...TRA
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