491
FXUS62 KILM 210613
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
213 AM EDT MON SEP 21 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ALL SECTIONS UPDATED. OVERALL FORECAST THINKING REMAINS SIMILAR.
KEY MESSAGES
1) STORMS ON TUESDAY, FOLLOWED BY UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS MID-WEEK TRENDING COOL AND DRY FOR THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...STORMS ON TUESDAY, FOLLOWED BY UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
MID-WEEK TRENDING COOL AND DRY FOR THE WEEKEND.
ILL-DEFINED 5H CUTOFF LINGERING OVER CENTRAL FL TODAY WILL WEAKEN
AND EVENTUALLY BEGIN DRIFTING NORTHEAST TONIGHT INTO TUE. AN
ENHANCED AREA OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND SOME PVA ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CUTOFF WILL ROTATE ONSHORE LATER TODAY. WHILE THESE FEATURES ARE
WEAK, THE TIMING DOES OPEN THE DOOR FOR ISOLATED WEAK AFTERNOON
SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST, ESPECIALLY THE SC COAST WHERE PVA IS
STRONGEST. WHAT'S LEFT OF THE 5H LOW, ALONG WITH ITS MOISTURE AND
WEAK PVA, BRUSH THE AREA TUE, INCREASING RAIN CHANCES. BEST CHANCES
WILL BE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHEN SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY PEAKS.
ENVIRONMENT IS NOT REALLY SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS, SO
WHILE LIGHTNING WILL BE A RISK, SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IS VERY LOW.
RAIN CHANCES REMAIN ELEVATED WED FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT, DRIVEN SOUTH BY A 5H TROUGH EARLY WED. POST FRONT A COOLER,
MORE STABLE AIR MASS ARRIVES WITH A WEDGE SETTING UP AT SOME POINT
WED. MORE LIKELY TO SEE TRUE RAIN WED/THU VS CONVECTION, ALTHOUGH
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED
CONVECTION WED, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST, AS THE 5H TROUGH AXIS
PASSES. THE TROUGH ENDS UP CUTOFF JUST OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK. DEEP DRY AIR AND COOLER TEMPERATURES
FOLLOW, LEADING TO A STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
GENERALLY VFR ACROSS THE AREA, BUT EXPECTING THIS TO CHANGE,
ESPECIALLY IN COASTAL NC. LIGHT TO CALM BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS AND AN
INFLUX OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS (925 MB RH >90%) WILL
ALLOW FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT BEFORE DAYBREAK. FARTHER INLAND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE (925 MB RH AOB 70%) IS LACKING WHICH WILL KEEP FOG LESS
WIDESPREAD AND MORE TRANSIENT IN NATURE. CONFIDENCE IN THESE 2
LOCATIONS IS MODERATE, BUT ALONG THE SC COAST HAVE LOWER CONFIDENCE.
THERE IS AN ABUNDANCE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE, BUT BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS ARE JUST A BIT STRONGER. STRONG ENOUGH TO STAVE OFF MVFR/IFR
FOG DEVELOPMENT IS THE QUESTION. SUSPECT SOME PATCHY MVFR FOG
DEVELOPS ALONG THE SC COAST, BUT THE WINDS WILL BE ENOUGH TO PREVENT
IFR AND LEAD TO VISIBILITY BOUNCING BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR. FOG AND/OR
STRATUS DISSIPATES BETWEEN 13-14Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT
WINDS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW CIGS/VSBY IS POSSIBLE
TUESDAY MORNING, FOLLOWED BY A GOOD CHANCE FOR MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AT
TIMES IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS/RAIN TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
MARINE
WATERS REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN ILL-DEFINED PRESSURE
GRADIENT INTO TUE NIGHT BEFORE THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT USHERS IN
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF ENHANCED NORTHEAST FLOW. GRADIENT REMAINS
TIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND WITH LOW PRESSURE LINGERING OFFSHORE.
HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED AT SOME POINT ON WED AND GIVEN THE
STRENGTH AND DURATION OF THE NORTHERLY FLOW SEAS COULD REQUIRE
SEVERAL DAYS OF HEADLINES BEFORE CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVE OVER THE
WEEKEND. CURRENTLY DOES NOT APPEAR WINDS WILL REACH GALE THRESHOLDS,
WED NIGHT OR THU, BUT SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...III
KEY MESSAGES...III
DISCUSSION...III
AVIATION...III
MARINE...III
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