650
FXUS62 KILM 160958
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
558 AM EDT THU JUL 16 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR THE 12Z TAF CYCLE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) HOT WITH LARGELY RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1... HOT WITH LARGELY RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS.
RIDGING WILL BUILD JUST NORTH OF THE AREA WITH A RETURN TO ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. SMOKE FROM
WILDFIRES IN CANADA HAD A LARGE IMPACT ON HIGH TEMPS TO OUR NORTH
BUT MODEL RESOLUTIONS FOR TODAY KEEP SMOKE NORTH OF THE AREA.
REGARDLESS, GUIDANCE WAS TOO WARM YESTERDAY SO TEMPERATURES HAVE
BEEN LOWERED SLIGHTLY. DEWPOINTS HAVE ALSO BEEN LOWERED TO COMBAT
THE NBM'S HIGH BIAS AND ACCOUNT FOR AFTERNOON MIXING. THE
COMBINATION OF THESE CHANGES HAVE LEAD TO HEAT INDICES BELOW FOR THE
MAJORITY OF THE AREA AND THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY, SO HEAT ADVISORIES
HAVE NOT BEEN ISSUE. A HEAT ADVISORY APPEARS MORE LIKELY FOR FRIDAY
AS HUMIDITY STARTS TO RECOVER WITH S/SW WINDS. BY THE WEEKEND
MOISTURE SHOULD HAVE RECOVERED ENOUGH TO SUPPORT TYPICAL AFTERNOON
SHOWERS/STORMS WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE, BUT THESE AREN'T
ANTICIPATED TO HELP TO ABATE THE HEAT THREAT INTO NEXT WEEK. THERE
ARE SIGNALS THAT LOW PRESSURE COULD FORM SOMEWHERE IN THE SE U.S.
WHICH COULD IMPACT THE RAINFALL FORECAST HEADED INTO NEXT WEEK BUT
UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE FOR PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE COMING 24
HOURS. LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS THIS MORNING SHOULD TURN SOUTHERLY
ALONG THE COAST BETWEEN 15-18Z WITH THE DEVELOPING SEABREEZE,
INCREASING TO 12-15 KT AT KCRE/KMYR.
EXTENDED FORECAST... HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND WITH PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. BRIEF
RESTRICTIONS FROM AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS MAY RETURN BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
MARINE
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY... W/SW WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY GUSTS MAY BE POSSIBLE FOR THE WEEKEND AS THE PG
INCREASES, AND THE WIND WAVE WILL BECOME MORE DOMINANT. SEAS LARGELY
2-3 FT INCREASING TO 4-5 FT THIS WEEKEND. CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE
SLIGHTLY INTO MONDAY BUT THERE'S SOME UNCERTAINTY.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...ILM
KEY MESSAGES...LEW
DISCUSSION...LEW
AVIATION...TRA
MARINE...LEW
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