851
FXUS62 KILM 170004
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
804 PM EDT THU APR 16 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
BEACH HZARDS STATEMENT HAS EXPIRED.
KEY MESSAGES
1) RECORD WARM TEMPERATURES AND PERSISTENTLY DRY WEATHER MAY
CREATE FIRE WEATHER HAZARDS THIS WEEK.
2) A STRONG EAST-SOUTHEAST MOVING COLD FRONT, ACCOMPANIED BY
SCATTERED CONVECTION, IS EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE THE AREA DURING
MIDDAY SUNDAY, BEFORE SLIDING OFF THE CAROLINA COASTS BY MID
AFTERNOON. A COOLER AIRMASS WILL FOLLOW WITH A PERIOD OF BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...RECORD WARM TEMPERATURES AND PERSISTENTLY DRY
WEATHER MAY CREATE FIRE WEATHER HAZARDS THIS WEEK.
THE UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST IS AT ITS
STRONGEST RIGHT NOW AND WILL WEAKEN WITH THE APPROACH OF A
MODEST SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEYS ON FRIDAY. AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES OFFSHORE
LATE FRIDAY, HEIGHTS WILL RISE AGAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST FOR
WHAT MAY BE OUR HOTTEST DAY, SATURDAY, SO FAR IN 2026. ALL THIS
UPPER RIDGING IS SUPPORTING BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
AND WARM SOUTHWESTERLY SYNOPTIC WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY.
MODELS REMAIN VERY STABLE IN THEIR DEPICTION OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL
850 MB TEMPS ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
850 MB TEMPS NEAR +16C TODAY AND FRIDAY COULD SURGE TO +17 TO
+18C ON SATURDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE RESTRENGTHENS. THIS IS 3 TO
4C ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE CLIMO VALUES ON SPC'S SOUNDING
CLIMATOLOGY WEBPAGE AND IS VERY NEAR NORMAL FOR MID JULY. THIS
SHOULD TRANSLATE TO HIGH TEMPERATURES INLAND NEAR 90 DEGREES ON
FRIDAY, THEN RISING INTO THE LOWER 90S ON SATURDAY. ONSHORE
SYNOPTIC AND SEABREEZE WINDS NEAR THE COAST SHOULD KEEP DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES 6-12 DEGREES COOLER.
OUR LATEST FORECAST EXPECTS LUMBERTON'S RECORD TO BE TIED ON
SATURDAY. IT WILL LIKELY BE NO MORE THAN 3 DEGREES AWAY FROM ALL
RECORD HIGHS AT WILMINGTON, LUMBERTON, AND FLORENCE OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, SO NO RECORDS ARE TRULY SAFE.
INLAND FROM THE COOLER COASTLINE, VERTICAL MIXING SHOULD BE
DEEP ENOUGH TO BRING DOWN DRIER AIR FROM WITHIN THE SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION ALOFT. DEWPOINTS SHOULD CRASH THROUGH THE 50S ACROSS
THE PEE DEE AND BORDER BELT REGIONS EACH AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY OF 25-30 PERCENT FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. GIVEN IT'S NOW BEEN TEN DAYS WITH NO MEASURABLE
RAINFALL AND FUEL/SOIL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO DECREASE, FIRE
DANGER STATEMENTS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED EACH DAY FOR PORTIONS OF
THE CAROLINAS.
RECORD HIGHS TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY:
................FRI APR 17...SAT APR 18
WILMINGTON.........89 IN 2006...93 IN 1976
LUMBERTON..........91 IN 2006...91 IN 1941
FLORENCE...........93 IN 2006...93 IN 1981
N MYRTLE BEACH.....87 IN 1995...89 IN 1976
KEY MESSAGE 2...A STRONG EAST-SOUTHEAST MOVING COLD FRONT,
ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED CONVECTION, IS EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE
THE AREA DURING MIDDAY SUNDAY, BEFORE SLIDING OFF THE CAROLINA
COASTS BY MID AFTERNOON. A COOLER AIRMASS WILL FOLLOW WITH A
PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT.
AN EXPANDING UPPER TROF FROM HUDSON BAY OF CANADA, WILL HELP
DRIVE A RELATIVELY FAST MOVING SFC COLD FRONT, WELL AWAY FROM
ITS ATTENDANT SFC LOW, ACROSS THE AREA FROM LATE MORNING
SUN (ALONG I-95) TO LATE AFTERNOON SUN (OFFSHORE WATERS).
SCATTERED CONVECTION REMAINS POSSIBLE ALONG IT BUT MOISTURE WILL
BE LIMITED, IE. NO DROUGHT BUSTERS WITH THIS PCPN ACTIVITY.
AFTER FROPA, 1030+ MB CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS
THE AREA FROM THE NW WITH THE BEST CAA SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY MON
FOLLOWED BY NEUTRAL ADVECTION THEREAFTER. CONTRARY PRIOR TO THE
CFP, TEMPERATURES WILL RUN BELOW NORMAL COME MON MORNING THRU
TUE. IN FACT, WIDESPREAD 40S FOR BOTH MON AND TUE MORNING LOWS,
ALONG WITH A THREAT FOR A SUB-40 DEGREE LOW READING IN THOSE
SHELTERED AREAS MON MORNING ESPECIALLY IF SFC WINDS ARE ABLE TO
DROP BELOW 5 MPH. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 70 MON
WITH LOW 70S FOR TUE HIGHS.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR. LIGHT SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS TONIGHT. WINDS TURN WEST-
NORTHWESTERLY FRIDAY AROUND 5 KTS, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A
PINNED SOUTHERLY SEA BREEZE FOR COASTAL TERMINALS IN THE
AFTERNOON.
EXTENDED FORECAST...PREDOMINANTLY VFR THROUGH THE WEEKEND DUE
TO HIGH PRESSURE. ONLY EXCEPTION COULD BE SOME MVFR OR EVEN IFR
FOG HEADING INTO SUNRISE EACH MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING
THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SHOWERS ON SUNDAY.
MARINE
THROUGH FRIDAY...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE
OFFSHORE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL LIKELY
MIX TO THE SURFACE FOR OUR NEW 20-60 OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
ZONES WHERE THE WARMER GULF STREAM EXISTS. NEARSHORE ZONES WILL
SEE SOUTHERLY WINDS WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET ONCE THE SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATION DAMPENS. SURFACE WINDS WILL HAVE A BIT MORE WESTERLY
COMPONENT ON FRIDAY IN FLATTER FLOW ALOFT AND A WEAK SURFACE
HIGH OVER THE FL PANHANDLE. WINDS TURN SOUTHERLY NEAR THE COAST
IN AN AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE. SEAS GENERALLY 3-4 FEET TODAY,
FALLING TO 2-3 FEET ON FRIDAY. INLETS COULD BE CHOPPY.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO
PREVAIL THRU FRI NIGHT THRU EARLY SAT. ACTIVE SEA BREEZE WILL
BE ONGOING FRI EVENING BUT SHOULD FADE BY MIDNIGHT LEAVING LIGHT
SW WINDS THRUOUT, 10-15 KT, INCLUDING OFFSHORE ZONES, THRU
SAT. ANOTHER ACTIVE SEA BREEZE SAT AFTN/EVENING WILL PUSH WINDS
TO 15-20 KT NEARSHORE. ESE SWELL AT 8 SECOND PERIODS TO DOMINATE
SEAS SPECTRUM EXCEPT POSSIBLY NEARSHORE DUE TO SEA BREEZE WIND
CHOP.
SAT NIGHT THRU SUN NIGHT, LOOKING AT A TIGHTENING OF THE SFC PG
PRIOR TO AND AFTER THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. LOW LEVEL SW WINDS
25-35 KT SAT NIGHT INTO SUN WILL KEEP SW WINDS ACTIVE COASTAL
AND OFFSHORE WATERS, POSSIBLY PUSHING GUSTS TO SCA THRESHOLDS
FOR THE COASTAL WATERS DEPENDENT ON THEIR FREQUENCY. COLD FRONT
PUSHES OFF THE MAINLAND BETWEEN 2PM AND 4 PM SUN AND WELL
OFFSHORE BY 6 TO 8 PM SUN. POST FRONTAL CAA WILL COMBINE WITH
THE TIGHTENED SFC PG TO PRODUCE SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS INTO MON MORNING. THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX MON
AFTN AND NIGHT AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH APPROACHES FROM THE NW,
ENDING THE SCA THREAT. SEAS DURING THIS TIME WILL BE GOVERNED
BY MAINLY WIND DRIVEN SHORT PERIOD WAVES WITH A CONTINUED
UNDERLYING SMALL ESE SWELL.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...ILM
KEY MESSAGES...DCH/TRA/21
DISCUSSION...DCH/TRA/21
AVIATION...VAO
MARINE...DCH/21
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