588
FXUS62 KILM 181024
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
624 AM EDT MON MAY 18 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES ISSUED FOR INLAND NEW HANOVER, COASTAL
HORRY AND COASTAL GEORGETOWN COUNTIES. UPDATED 12Z TAF
DISCUSSION.
KEY MESSAGES
1) INLAND PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN CAROLINAS SHOULD SEE
THEIR LONGEST HEAT WAVE OF THE YEAR SO FAR WITH 90 DEGREE HEAT
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY.
2) RAIN CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE, ESPECIALLY INLAND,
BEGINNING THURSDAY AS A FRONT STALLS NEAR THE CAROLINAS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...INLAND PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN CAROLINAS SHOULD SEE
THEIR LONGEST HEAT WAVE OF THE YEAR SO FAR WITH 90 DEGREE HEAT
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY.
A 590 DAM UPPER RIDGE CENTERED NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST IS
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SUSTAINED PERIOD OF HOT INLAND TEMPERATURES
WHICH SHOULD LAST THROUGH THURSDAY. SINKING AIR BELOW THE UPPER
RIDGE SHOULD CREATE A DEEP WARM, DRY LAYER EXTENDING DOWN THROUGH
700 AND 850 MB. MODELS HAVE MAINTAINED THEIR 850 MB TEMP FORECASTS
OF +17C TO 18C (AT OR ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE CLIMATOLOGICAL
VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR) WHICH INCREASES CONFIDENCE IN OUR
FORECAST OF 90+ DEGREE HEAT CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY FOR
LOCATIONS MORE THAN 25 MILES INLAND.
OUR FORECAST IS FOR AN ADDITIONAL FOUR DAYS (MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY) OF 90+ DEGREE HEAT INLAND. ASSUMING THAT FLORENCE AND
LUMBERTON HIGHS TOUCH 90 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON, THIS FIVE DAY
STREAK WOULD ECLIPSE THIS YEAR'S EARLIER STREAK OF FOUR DAYS OF 90
DEGREE TEMPS RECORDED FROM APRIL 15-18 IN BOTH FLORENCE AND
LUMBERTON. COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS SHOULD REMAIN
SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER THAN INLAND DUE TO SUSTAINED SOUTH WINDS
DRAGGING AIR ACROSS NEARSHORE WATER STILL NEAR 70 DEGREES.
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BECOME MORE NARROW WITH TIME AS AN UPPER LOW
STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS
FEATURE LOOKS A LOT LIKE AN EARLY SEASON TUTT LOW, BUT ANY ENHANCED
CONVECTION OR OTHER SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACTS SHOULD REMAIN FAR TO
OUR SOUTH. THE ARRIVAL OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT THURSDAY AFTERNOON
SHOULD END THIS HEAT WAVE WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TOWARD NORMAL
FOR THE COMING WEEKEND.
KEY MESSAGE 2...RAIN CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE, ESPECIALLY INLAND,
BEGINNING THURSDAY AS A FRONT STALLS NEAR THE CAROLINAS.
DRY WEATHER WILL COME TO AN END AS EARLY AS THURSDAY MORNING.
THERE'S REASONABLE UNCERTAINTY ON PLACEMENT OF HIGHEST POPS DAY TO
DAY AS WE DEAL WITH A STALLED FRONT IN OR NEAR THE AREA AND THE
DAILY SEA BREEZE. THE FRONT MAY LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA INTO THE
WEEKEND BUT THE WARM, HUMID AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT RAIN
CHANCES THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE NBM AND OTHER GUIDANCE
WITH FORECAST POPS REFLECTING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/STORMS THAT I THINK
WILL BE MORE SCATTERED NEAR THE BOUNDARIES. CALLING RAINFALL TOTALS
THIS FAR OUT IS TOUGH BUT IT DOES LOOK LIKE THERE'S A SIGNAL FOR
HIGHER TOTALS, MAINLY FOR THE COASTAL AREAS, FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A PASSING LOW SHOVING MORE MOISTURE ONSHORE.
LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE PLACEMENT OF THIS FEATURE AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
TRANSIENT CREEK/SWAMP FOG/STRATUS HAS MADE AN APPEARANCE AT
CRE/ILM AND WILL LINGER THROUGH 12Z OR SO BEFORE MIXING OUT. VFR
AT ALL SITES TODAY.
SEA BREEZE WILL AGAIN DEVELOP AND PUSH INLAND AROUND MIDDAY WITH
GUSTS 15-20 KT AT THE COAST ARRIVING AT INLAND TERMINALS MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON.
MVFR/IFR FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT WITH BEST CHANCES ONCE AGAIN
ALONG THE COAST. INLAND SITES WILL HAVE SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCES
TUE MORNING COMPARED TO THIS MORNING DUE TO INCREASED BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE.
EXTENDED FORECAST...VFR THROUGH WEDNESDAY THOUGH MORNING FOG
POTENTIAL INCREASES EACH DAY. AN APPROACHING FRONT COULD BRING
RESTRICTIONS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT...SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS
CONTINUES TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH BERMUDA HIGH IN PLACE. SEA
BREEZE DEVELOPMENT BY MIDDAY WILL ENHANCE WINDS NEAR SHORE WITH
POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS 15-20 KT WITHIN A FEW MILES OF LAND.
OTHERWISE WINDS WILL BE AROUND 10 KT WITH MINIMAL GUSTS.
COMBINATION OF A WEAK SOUTHEAST SWELL AND WEAK SOUTHERLY WIND
WAVE WILL KEEP SEAS 2-3 FT.
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH ONSHORE FLOW ENHANCED IN THE AFTERNOONS BY THE
DAILY SEA BREEZE. A COULD FRONT WILL APPROACH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY BUT DOESN'T LOOK TO CLEAR THE COASTAL WATERS WITH SE WINDS
PREVAILING. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY ONWARDS.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM EDT
TUESDAY FOR NCZ107.
SC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 8 PM TO 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
SCZ054-056.
MARINE...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...ILM
KEY MESSAGES...TRA/LEW
DISCUSSION...TRA/LEW
AVIATION...III
MARINE...III/LEW
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