958
FXUS62 KILM 180621
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
221 AM EDT FRI SEP 18 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ALL SECTIONS UPDATED WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN FORECAST THINKING.
KEY MESSAGES
1)HEAT INDEX VALUES NEAR 100 TODAY.
2) A COLD FRONT BRINGS AN UNSETTLED TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...HEAT INDEX VALUES NEAR 100 TODAY.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...ALTHOUGH THE CORE OF THE LARGE MID LEVEL
RIDGE WILL BE WEST OF THE AREA LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH AND 850MB
TEMPS JUST SHY OF 20C WILL FOSTER HIGHS IN THE MID 90S AWAY FROM THE
COAST. GRANTED, THIS OCEANIC INFLUENCE WILL BE VERY LOCALIZED BY A
VERY PINNED SEABREEZE. DEWPOINTS IN THE BALLPARK OF 70 WILL YIELD
HEAT INDEX VALUES CLOSE TO 100. A FEW STORMS ARE POSSIBLE INLAND
INITIALLY BUT WITH STORM MOTION TOWARDS THE COAST LOW POPS ARE
WARRANTED AREA-WIDE WITH STORMS A BIT DELAYED WITH DRY AIR BOTH
ALOFT AS WELL AS IN THE SUB-CLOUD LAYER. THE LATTER COULD BRING
GUSTY WINDS WITH A FEW STORMS BUT THE MRGL RISK CURRENTLY REMAINS
JUST TO OUR WEST ESPECIALLY AS STORMS WILL WANE IN BOTH COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY AS THEY APPROACH THE COAST LATE EVENING.
KEY MESSAGE 2...2) A COLD FRONT BRINGS AN UNSETTLED TUESDAY
FOLLOWED BY MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...THE MID WEEK PATTERN WILL BE CHANGING
ALBEIT SLOWLY. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR WEST WILL RETROGRADE
SLIGHTLY AND AMPLIFY CONSIDERABLY. THE DOWNSTREAM TROUGH
STRENGTHENS OVER THE NORTHEAST. GUIDANCE LOOKS SURPRISINGLY WET AS
THE LEAD FRONT ARRIVES AS THE FORECAST SURGE IN PW TO 1.75" SEEMS
AGGRESSIVE GIVEN THE COMPLETE LACK OF A SOUTHERLY WIND COMPONENT OF
OVER 10 KT ANYWHERE IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS. THE PROBABLE OUTCOME IS
THAT NEAR-LIKELY POPS ARE STILL OK BUT THAT FUTURE QPF FORECASTS
WILL BE PULLED BACK IN FUTURE FORECASTS.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. ANY FOG WILL BE RELEGATED TO GROUND FOG DUE
TO STEEP HYDROLAPSE RATES. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL BE LOW ON
FRIDAY AND TEND TO FAVOR INLAND LOCALES WHERE THERE WILL BE WEAK MID
LEVEL SUPPORT. SHOULD AFTERNOON STORMS OCCUR CLOSE TO A GIVEN
TERMINAL THEN THE CHANCE FOR FRIDAY NIGHT FOG GOES UP BUT THIS IS OF
LOW CONFIDENCE.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...THERE IS A MODERATE CHANCE OF VISIBILITY OR
CEILING RESTRICTIONS SATURDAY DUE TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS,
REDUCING TO A LOW CHANCE ON SUNDAY. EARLY MORNING GROUND FOG MAY BE
POSSIBLE SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
MARINE
LIGHT SW FLOW WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
THAT WILL PUSH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT, TURNING THE FLOW ALMOST 180
DEGREES. WINDS SPEEDS REMAIN SO LIGHT THROUGH THE VEER THAT SEAS
WON'T BUILD AND THE STEEPENING OF WAVE FACES WILL BE INSIGNIFICANT.
THERE IS NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF SWELL ENERGY THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD SO SEAS ONLY BUILD TO 2-3 FT AS THE LATTER DAYS OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS WEAK WINDS MAINTAIN AN ONSHORE COMPONENT.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...MBB
KEY MESSAGES...MBB
DISCUSSION...MBB
AVIATION...MBB
MARINE...MBB
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