656  
AXUS73 KABR 191543  
DGTABR  
MNC011-155-SDC013-017-021-025-029-031-037-039-041-045-049-051-057-  
059-065-069-075-085-089-091-107-109-115-117-119-129-211545-  
 
DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD  
1043 AM CDT FRI OCT 19 2018 /943 AM MDT FRI OCT 19 2018/  
   
..DROUGHT CONDITIONS IMPROVING ACROSS THE REGION
 
 
SYNOPSIS...  
 
LATE SEPTEMBER THROUGH MID OCTOBER SAW A PATTERN CHANGE ACROSS THE  
REGION, BRINGING WETTER AND COOLER CONDITIONS. FREQUENT ROUNDS OF  
RAINFALL VISITED THE DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA, AND EVEN THE FIRST  
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL OF THE SEASON. MUCH OF THE AREA IS ACTUALLY  
ABOVE NORMAL NOW FOR PRECIPITATION DATING BACK TO SEPTEMBER 1ST. THE  
RETURN TO WET AND COOL WEATHER HAS LED TO IMPROVEMENTS IN DROUGHT  
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION, INCLUDING THE REMOVAL OF D2 (SEVERE)  
DROUGHT ACROSS NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA.  
 
D1 (MODERATE) DROUGHT COUNTIES: NORTHERN STANLEY, SULLY, EASTERN  
POTTER, FAULK, EASTERN EDMUNDS, SOUTHERN BROWN.  
 
D0 (ABNORMALLY DRY) COUNTIES: CENTRAL THROUGH NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA.  
 
SUMMARY OF IMPACTS...  
 
STATE AND LOCAL ACTIONS:  
NONE KNOWN.  
 
SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS:  
ACCORDING TO THE LATEST RELEASE OF THE SOUTH DAKOTA CROP PROGRESS AND  
CONDITION REPORT FOR THE WEEK ENDING OCTOBER 14TH, TOPSOIL MOISTURE  
SUPPLIES WAS RATED 12 PERCENT SHORT OR VERY SHORT. THIS IS A  
SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS COMPARED TO MID-SEPTEMBER WHEN  
TOPSOIL MOISTURE WAS 47 PERCENT SHORT OR VERY SHORT. CURRENTLY,  
SUBSOIL MOISTURE SUPPLIES IS RATED 32 PERCENT SHORT OR VERY SHORT.  
THIS IS A 15 PERCENT IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS REPORTED IN MID-  
SEPTEMBER. THE PATTERN CHANGE TO WETTER CONDITIONS HAS REALLY HELPED  
TOPSOIL MOISTURE, ALTHOUGH THERE ARE STILL LINGERING DRYNESS ISSUES  
IN SUBSOIL DUE TO OVERALL LONGER TERM PRECIPITATION DEFICITS.  
 
AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS:  
THE LATEST CROP PROGRESS AND CONDITION REPORT FOR THE STATE OF SOUTH  
DAKOTA SHOWED CORN CONDITION AT 16 PERCENT POOR OR VERY POOR, WITH 17  
PERCENT HARVESTED. SOYBEANS ARE 14 PERCENT POOR OR VERY POOR, WITH 29  
PERCENT HARVESTED. SORGHUM IS 7 PERCENT POOR OR VERY POOR, WITH 21  
PERCENT HARVESTED. PASTURE AND RANGE CONDITIONS ARE RATED 22 PERCENT  
POOR OR VERY POOR. ALL CROPS ARE BEHIND AVERAGE HARVESTED DUE TO THE  
RECENT WET WEATHER MAKING CONDITIONS UNSUITABLE.  
 
RIVER AND STREAMFLOW CONDITIONS:  
CURRENT 7-DAY AVERAGE STREAMFLOWS ARE NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS  
THE REGION.  
 
FIRE DANGER IMPACTS:  
FIRE DANGER HAS GENERALLY BEEN LOW DURING THE WET AND COOL PATTERN.  
ALTHOUGH, OVER THE PAST WEEK AS WE'VE BEGUN TO DRY OUT, THERE HAVE  
BEEN MORE OCCURRENCES OF HIGH TO VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER WHENEVER  
STRONG WINDS COINCIDE WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY.  
 
CLIMATE SUMMARY...  
 
OVER THE PAST 30 DAYS, PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN 0 TO 2 INCHES ABOVE  
NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. IN FACT, NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA  
EASTWARD TO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY IS 2 TO 4 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL.  
PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA ARE ALSO SEEING THESE ABOVE NORMAL  
READINGS. THE PREVIOUS AREA OF D2 (SEVERE) DROUGHT FELL IN THIS AREA  
OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL, WHICH LED TO THE REMOVAL OF D2.  
 
PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK...  
 
THE LATEST 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK FROM THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER  
CALLS FOR NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES, WITH AN INCREASED PROBABILITY FOR  
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION. THE LATEST 3 TO 4 WEEK OUTLOOK SHOWS AN  
INCREASED PROBABILITY FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL  
PRECIPITATION.  
 
HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK...  
 
ACCORDING TO THE LATEST PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK ISSUED BY  
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ABERDEEN, THERE IS GENERALLY A 10  
PERCENT OR LESS CHANCE FOR ANY OF THE RIVERS IN THE FORECAST AREA TO  
REACH FLOOD STAGE IN THE NEXT 90 DAYS.  
 
NEXT ISSUANCE DATE...  
 
SINCE THERE IS NO LONGER ANY D2 (SEVERE) DROUGHT ANYWHERE IN THE  
FORECAST AREA, THIS PRODUCT IS NOT SCHEDULED TO BE UPDATED. IF D2  
(SEVERE) DROUGHT CONDITIONS RETURN IN THE FUTURE, ANOTHER DROUGHT  
INFORMATION STATEMENT WILL BE RELEASED.  
 

 
 
RELATED WEB SITES...  
 
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON CURRENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS MAY BE FOUND AT  
THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESSES:  
 
US DROUGHT MONITOR...HTTP://DROUGHTMONITOR.UNL.EDU  
NATIONAL INTEGRATED DROUGHT INFORMATION SYSTEM...HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.GOV  
NOAA DROUGHT PAGE...HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/DROUGHT  
HIGH PLAINS REGIONAL CLIMATE CENTER...HTTPS://HPRCC.UNL.EDU  
LOCAL WEATHER INFORMATION...HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ABR  
USDA CROP INFORMATION...HTTP://WWW.NASS.USDA.GOV/INDEX.ASP  
SOUTH DAKOTA STATE CLIMATE OFFICE...HTTPS://CLIMATE.SDSTATE.EDU  
SDSU EXTENSION...HTTP://IGROW.ORG  
DROUGHT IMPACT REPORTER...HTTP://DROUGHTREPORTER.UNL.EDU/MAP  
 
ADDITIONAL RIVER INFORMATION...  
 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...HTTP://WATER.WEATHER.GOV  
US GEOLOGICAL SURVEY...HTTPS://WWW.USGS.GOV/WATER  
US ARMY CORPS OF ENGINEERS...HTTP://WWW.USACE.ARMY.MIL  
 
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS...  
 
THE DROUGHT MONITOR IS A MULTI-AGENCY EFFORT INVOLVING THE NATIONAL  
WEATHER SERVICE AND NATIONAL CENTERS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION,  
THE USDA, STATE AND REGIONAL CENTER CLIMATOLOGISTS AND THE NATIONAL  
DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER. INFORMATION FOR THIS STATEMENT HAS BEEN  
GATHERED FROM NWS AND FAA OBSERVATION SITES, STATE COOPERATIVE  
EXTENSION SERVICES, THE USDA, USACE AND USGS.  
 
QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS...  
 
IF YOU HAVE QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS ABOUT THIS DROUGHT INFORMATION  
STATEMENT, PLEASE CONTACT:  
 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE  
TRAVIS TARVER  
824 BROWN COUNTY 14S  
ABERDEEN SD 57401  
PHONE...605-225-0519  
TRAVIS.TARVER@NOAA.GOV  
 

 
TMT  
 
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