065
FNUS73 KABR 241349
FWSABR
SPOT FORECAST FOR TNC - 7 MILE FEN...THE NATURE CONSERVANCY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
849 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2026
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0900 CDT ON MAY 24.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
DISCUSSION
WHILE MOST OF CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION FOR A FEW DAYS, THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR SOME ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER EAST CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA, INCLUDING NEAR THE BURN SITE, THIS EVENING.
WITH WARM AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA, TEMPERATURES AT THE BURN SITE
WILL GRADUALLY RUN UP TO OR JUST ABOVE 80F DEGREES TODAY,
AND WARMER MONDAY AND TUESDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING, AS WELL. THAT IS GOING TO
OFFSET DAYTIME HEATING SOME, LEAVING AFTERNOON MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES GENERALLY BETWEEN 35 AND 45 PERCENT. A LIGHT
SOUTHWEST WIND THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY SWITCH TO A MORE
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION, AS DAYTIME HEATING AND MIXING HAS A CHANCE TO
ELIMINATE THE MORNING LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE INVERSION IN PLACE.
FROM ROUGHLY MID-DAY TODAY THROUGH SUNDOWN THIS EVENING, SOUTHERLY
BREEZES AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH SHOULD SUFFICE.
DEPENDING ON HOW DEEPLY MIXED THINGS GET, THERE COULD BE A COUPLE OF
HOURS THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN 3PM AND 6PM WHEN GUSTS COULD RUN UP TO
AS HIGH AS 30 MPH AT TIMES.
THE OUTLOOK FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT A
SOUTHERLY WIND DIRECTION EACH DAY DURING PEAK HEATING/MIXING. WINDS
TUESDAY LOOK TO BE THE STRONGEST OUT OF TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
BEYOND THE LOW PROBABILITY CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR STORM BY THIS
EVENING, THE FORECAST IS CURRENTLY DRY FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
REST OF TODAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (10-20 PERCENT).
CWR.................1 PERCENT.
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.
CHANCE OF LIGHTNING.2 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 82.
MIN HUMIDITY........34 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 6 TO 9 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......700-6500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 13 TO 16 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (10000 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE MORNING
INCREASING TO FAIR (41300 KNOT-FT) IN THE
AFTERNOON INCREASING TO GOOD (83500 KNOT-FT).
TIME (CDT) 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........15 4 8 20 25 12 14 6 5
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TSTM COV........
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CHC OF LTNG (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
TEMP............68 73 75 74 77 80 80 81 82
RH..............59 51 46 43 39 35 35 34 34
20 FT WIND DIR..SW SW SW S S S S S S
20 FT WIND SPD..6 6 7 9 9 9 9 9 9
20 FT WIND GUST.9 9 12 15 14 15 16 16 15
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.7 1.1 2.1 3.1 3.8 4.9 6.3 6.5 6.4
SMOKE DISPERSAL.PR PR PR PR FR FR GD GD GD
TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (25-35 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING.
CWR.................5 PERCENT.
CHANCE OF PCPN......20 PERCENT.
CHANCE OF LIGHTNING.19 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 55.
MAX HUMIDITY........83 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 6 TO 12 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
EVENING.
MIXING HEIGHT.......400-5700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 8 TO 17 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST 15
TO 18 MPH OVERNIGHT.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (68000 KNOT-FT) DECREASING TO POOR (3600
KNOT-FT).
TIME (CDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).........12 20 29 41 31 33 13 44 49 33 25 24
WEATHER COV..... SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
WEATHER TYPE.... RW RW RW RW RW
TSTM COV........ SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
CHC OF PCPN (%).10 20 20 20 20 20 10 10 10 0 0 0
CHC OF LTNG (%).10 20 20 20 20 20 10 10 10 0 0 0
TEMP............81 80 77 69 65 64 63 62 60 58 57 57
RH..............37 39 45 57 68 67 70 72 78 83 83 83
20 FT WIND DIR..S S S S S S SW SW SW SW SW SW
20 FT WIND SPD..8 7 6 7 8 9 10 12 12 12 12 10
20 FT WIND GUST.14 13 12 12 14 16 17 20 18 18 18 17
MIX HGT (KFT)...5.7 3.1 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4
SMOKE DISPERSAL.GD PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR
MEMORIAL DAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (10-20 PERCENT).
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.
CHANCE OF LIGHTNING.0 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 89.
MIN HUMIDITY........28 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 8 TO 10 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......400-7600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 9 TO 15 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (5200 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO GOOD (69700
KNOT-FT).
TIME (CDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........26 29 28 14 3 8 18 16 24 18 12 9
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TSTM COV........
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CHC OF LTNG (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
TEMP............56 58 62 67 76 79 82 84 87 88 88 89
RH..............83 80 75 68 50 44 40 36 31 29 29 28
20 FT WIND DIR..SW SW SW SW SW SW S S S S S S
20 FT WIND SPD..10 10 9 9 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8
20 FT WIND GUST.17 17 16 15 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.4 0.4 0.6 0.9 1.3 2.9 3.8 5.4 4.9 6.0 7.6 7.0
SMOKE DISPERSAL.PR PR PR PR PR PR PR FR FR FR GD GD
FORECASTER...DORN
REQUESTED BY...JOE BLASTICK
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2614376.0/ABR
.DELDT 05/24/26
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
.EMAIL JBLASTICK@TNC.ORG
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