490
FNUS73 KABR 292010
FWSABR
SPOT FORECAST FOR NORTHEAST JONES COUNTY FIRE...USDA FOREST SERVICE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
310 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2025
FORECAST IS BASED ON FORECAST START TIME OF 1500 CDT ON JULY 29.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
DISCUSSION
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL OVERSPREAD THE SITE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. PREVAILING WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE NORTHEAST,
GUSTING TO AROUND 20 MPH, BUT PASSING SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY BRING
ERRATIC WIND DIRECTION/GUSTS INTO THE EVENING HOURS. HEAVY RAIN IS
POSSIBLE AS WELL, PERHAPS OVER 1 INCH. ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
PREVAILING WIND DIRECTION IS FORECAST TO REMAIN FROM THE
NORTHEAST, OR EVEN EAST-NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY.
REST OF TODAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
CWR.................80 PERCENT.
CHANCE OF PCPN......80 PERCENT.
CHANCE OF LIGHTNING.70 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 86.
MIN HUMIDITY........48 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHEAST WINDS 12 TO 15 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3800-4300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST AROUND 15 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (49500 KNOT-FT).
TIME (CDT) 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........81 84 90
WEATHER COV.....CHC LKY LKY
WEATHER TYPE....RW RW RW
TSTM COV........CH CHC CHC
CHC OF PCPN (%).70 80 60
CHC OF LTNG (%).60 70 50
TEMP............85 86 86
RH..............51 51 53
20 FT WIND DIR..NE NE E
20 FT WIND SPD..12 15 15
20 FT WIND GUST.20 22 23
MIX HGT (KFT)...4.2 4.3 3.8
SMOKE DISPERSAL.FR FR FR
TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY.
CWR.................14 PERCENT INCREASING TO 47 PERCENT EARLY IN
THE EVENING, THEN INCREASING TO 58 PERCENT LATE
IN THE EVENING INCREASING TO 68 PERCENT
OVERNIGHT DECREASING TO 53 PERCENT DECREASING
TO 42 PERCENT EARLY IN THE MORNING.
CHANCE OF PCPN......70 PERCENT.
CHANCE OF LIGHTNING.57 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 62.
MAX HUMIDITY........100 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHEAST WINDS 14 TO 16 MPH DECREASING TO 13
TO 14 MPH OVERNIGHT. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE
EVENING. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE EVENING. GUSTY AND
ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS
OVERNIGHT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......600-3300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 12 TO 17 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (43300 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE EVENING
DECREASING TO POOR (6300 KNOT-FT) LATE IN THE
NIGHT.
TIME (CDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).........88 85 89 92 95 92 90 87 86 84 83 86
WEATHER COV.....LKY CHC CHC CHC LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY CHC CHC
WEATHER TYPE....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW
TSTM COV........CHC CHC CHC CHC LKY LKY LKY CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
CHC OF PCPN (%).60 40 50 50 60 60 70 70 70 60 50 50
CHC OF LTNG (%).40 40 50 50 60 60 60 30 30 30 30 30
TEMP............84 83 81 76 75 72 71 70 68 68 67 65
RH..............55 58 63 73 73 81 81 84 91 88 95 100
20 FT WIND DIR..E E E NE NE NE NE NE E NE N N
20 FT WIND SPD..16 15 14 14 14 14 14 13 13 14 14 14
20 FT WIND GUST.23 23 22 21 21 21 20 20 20 20 21 21
MIX HGT (KFT)...3.0 3.3 1.8 0.9 0.8 0.9 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7
SMOKE DISPERSAL.FR FR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR
WEDNESDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (60-70 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE MORNING, THEN
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE LATE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
CWR.................38 PERCENT DECREASING TO 7 PERCENT.
CHANCE OF PCPN......40 PERCENT.
CHANCE OF LIGHTNING.29 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 80.
MIN HUMIDITY........55 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHEAST WINDS 14 TO 17 MPH INCREASING TO 17
TO 18 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE
MORNING. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......600-5400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 13 TO 16 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (6100 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE MORNING
INCREASING TO GOOD (76200 KNOT-FT) IN THE
AFTERNOON.
TIME (CDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........90 93 81 69 57 52 48 43 42 41 40 38
WEATHER COV.....CHC CHC CHC CHC SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
WEATHER TYPE....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW
TSTM COV........CHC CHC CHC CHC SCH SCH SCH SCH
CHC OF PCPN (%).40 40 30 30 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 10
CHC OF LTNG (%).30 30 30 30 10 10 10 20 20 20 20 10
TEMP............64 64 63 65 68 70 73 75 77 79 78 80
RH..............100 98 100 96 86 80 70 67 62 58 57 55
20 FT WIND DIR..N N NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE
20 FT WIND SPD..14 15 15 15 16 17 17 18 17 17 17 17
20 FT WIND GUST.21 23 23 23 24 24 25 26 26 26 25 25
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.6 0.8 1.3 1.6 2.3 3.1 3.6 4.3 5.1 5.4 5.3 5.0
SMOKE DISPERSAL.PR PR PR PR PR PR FR GD GD GD GD GD
FORECASTER...TMT
REQUESTED BY...TYLER BROWN
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2518816.0/ABR
.DELDT 07/29/25
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
.EMAIL DOUGLAS.GORDON@USDA.GOV
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