635  
FNUS73 KABR 021354  
FWSABR  
 
SPOT FORECAST FOR OAHE PROJECT RX...USDA FOREST SERVICE  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD  
854 AM CDT TUE OCT 2 2018  
 
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0900 CDT ON OCTOBER 02.  
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER  
SERVICE IN ABERDEEN SD.  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM A SOUTHEAST DIRECTION TODAY, AND  
BECOME BREEZY/GUSTY BY LATE MORNING AND PERSISTING THROUGH THE  
AFTERNOON. SEE DETAILS BELOW FOR HOURLY WIND FORECAST. LOW CLOUDS  
ARE QUICKLY INVADING FROM THE EAST EARLY THIS MORNING AND ARE  
LIKELY TO OVERSPREAD THE BURN SITE. HUMIDITY IS HIGH THIS MORNING  
AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN HIGH THROUGH THE MORNING, AND COULD IN  
FACT BE HIGHER THAN WHAT'S SHOWN IN THE FORECAST BELOW IF THE LOW  
CLOUDS STICK AROUND LONGER THROUGH THE MORNING. DURING THE  
AFTERNOON, CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO DECREASE, WITH WARMING  
TEMPERATURES AND LOWERING HUMIDITY. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN  
HOW LONG THE CLOUDS STICK AROUND, WHICH COULD AFFECT TEMPERATURE  
AND HUMIDITY TRENDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY.  
   
REST OF TODAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT CLOUD) THEN  
BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY (50-60 PERCENT CLOUD).  
PATCHY FOG EARLY IN THE MORNING.  
CWR.................0 PERCENT.  
LAL.................1.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....74-79.  
MIN HUMIDITY........44-49 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST WINDS 12 TO 16 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 23  
MPH IN THE LATE MORNING.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......500-1500 FT AGL INCREASING TO 2900-3400 FT AGL  
IN THE AFTERNOON.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 14 TO 21 MPH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR INCREASING TO FAIR (52500-53300).  
HAINES INDEX........4 (LOW).  
 
TIME (CDT) 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM  
SKY (%).........62 85 72 59 47 52 58 63 61 58  
WEATHER COV.....PTY PTY PTY PTY  
WEATHER TYPE....FOG FOG FOG FOG  
TSTM COV........  
TEMP............49 53 56 61 66 70 74 76 76 74  
RH..............89 80 77 67 58 53 48 46 46 51  
20 FT WIND DIR..SE SE SE SE SE SE S S S SE  
20 FT WIND SPD..12 14 15 14 15 15 15 16 15 13  
20 FT WIND GUST.16 20 21 20 21 21 21 23 22 17  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT CLOUD). A SLIGHT  
CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF  
THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 3 AM.  
CWR.................0 PERCENT.  
LAL.................1 UNTIL 0400, THEN 2.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....55-60.  
MAX HUMIDITY........85-90 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 6 TO 9 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS  
EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 3 AM.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......100-600 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 12 TO 21 MPH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (2600-3900).  
HAINES INDEX........6 (HIGH).  
 
TIME (CDT) 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM 6AM  
SKY (%).........56 55 54 53 52 52 52 54 57 59 60 60  
WEATHER COV..... SCH SCH SCH SCH  
WEATHER TYPE.... RW RW RW RW  
TSTM COV........ SCH SCH SCH  
TEMP............72 69 67 64 63 62 61 60 59 58 58 57  
RH..............57 66 70 75 81 81 84 87 87 90 90 90  
20 FT WIND DIR..SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE S  
20 FT WIND SPD..9 9 9 9 9 8 8 8 7 7 7 6  
20 FT WIND GUST.13 13 13 13 13 12 12 12 9 9 9 8  
   
WEDNESDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (35-45 PERCENT CLOUD).  
CWR.................0 PERCENT.  
LAL.................1.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....71-76.  
MIN HUMIDITY........36-41 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........WINDY. SOUTHWEST WINDS 6 TO 8 MPH SHIFTING TO  
THE NORTHWEST 9 TO 18 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND  
25 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING, THEN INCREASING TO  
24 TO 33 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 46 MPH EARLY  
IN THE AFTERNOON INCREASING TO 33 TO 35 MPH  
WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 48 MPH LATE IN THE  
AFTERNOON.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......100-800 FT AGL INCREASING TO 5000-5500 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 11 TO 16 MPH SHIFTING TO THE  
NORTHWEST 19 TO 26 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND  
EARLY AFTERNOON, THEN INCREASING TO 45 TO 50  
MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR INCREASING TO EXCELLENT.  
HAINES INDEX........4 (LOW).  
 
TIME (CDT) 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM  
SKY (%).........61 59 55 53 44 27 18 19 22 23 21 17  
WEATHER COV.....  
WEATHER TYPE....  
TSTM COV........  
TEMP............57 59 61 64 68 71 73 73 72 69 66 61  
RH..............86 80 78 70 63 57 51 46 41 39 38 42  
20 FT WIND DIR..S SW W W NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW  
20 FT WIND SPD..6 8 9 12 13 15 18 24 29 33 35 33  
20 FT WIND GUST.8 10 13 16 18 22 25 33 40 46 48 47  
 

 
FORECASTER...TMT  
REQUESTED BY...RYAN CUMBOW  
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED  
.TAG 1816441.0/ABR  
.DELDT 10/02/18  
.EMAIL RCUMBOW@FS.FED.US  
 
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