284  
FXUS63 KABR 201125 AAA  
AFDABR  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD  
525 AM CST THU FEB 20 2020  
   
UPDATE
 
 
ISSUED AT 524 AM CST THU FEB 20 2020  
 
SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.  
 

 
 
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON)  
ISSUED AT 312 AM CST THU FEB 20 2020  
 
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE AREA EARLY THIS  
MORNING WILL DRIFT SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY, WITH SOUTH TO  
SOUTHWESTERLY WAA DEVELOPING. WIND SPEEDS AROUND 5 MPH EARLY THIS  
MORNING ARE COMBINING WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS BELOW ZERO  
ACROSS THE EAST TO CREATE WIND CHILLS INTO ADVISORY CRITERIA. AS THE  
WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST BY SUNRISE, WILL SEE  
TEMPERATURES RISE FAIRLY QUICKLY, WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S THIS  
AFTERNOON. THE WAA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH  
TEMPERATURES ONLY FALLING INTO THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S TONIGHT, THEN  
RISING INTO THE 30S AND 40S ON FRIDAY.  
 
CONDITIONS STILL LOOK RIPE FOR DOWNSLOPE WINDS ALONG THE SISSETON  
HILLS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. 925 MB WIND  
SPEEDS PEAK IN THE 40 TO 45 KNOT RANGE AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT, AND  
DON'T DROP OFF MUCH UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE FRIDAY. THEREFORE, EXPECT  
GUSTS HIGH ENOUGH IN THE USUAL AREAS AFFECTED BY DOWNSLOPE WINDS TO  
CREATE SOME ISSUES WITH BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.  
 
   
LONG TERM
 
(FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 312 AM CST THU FEB 20 2020  
 
DRY WESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND AND LITTLE HAS CHANGE  
ON THE LONG TERM FORECAST. UPPER RIDGE ON FRIDAY BECOMES MORE ZONAL  
AS THE WEEKEND PROGRESSES AND MILD TEMPS KEEP HIGHS ABOVE AVERAGE  
THROUGH MONDAY.  
 
IT BECOMES INCREASINGLY LIKELY THAT A SYSTEM WILL PUSH THROUGH THE  
REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH DIGS  
INTO THE MIDWEST AND A SURFACE LOW TREKS THROUGH THE DAKOTAS. THERE  
IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH ANY LOCATION AND AMOUNTS OF ANY  
PRECIPITATION, BUT WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH TRENDS AND MODEL  
CONSISTENCY OVER THE WEEKEND. DID ADJUST WINDS UP SLIGHTLY FROM NBM  
GUIDANCE TO BETTER CAPTURE THE TIGHT GRADIENT BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FOR  
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)  
ISSUED AT 524 AM CST THU FEB 20 2020  
 
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.  
 

 
 
   
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
SD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR SDZ005>008-  
010-011-017>023.  
 
MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR MNZ039-046.  
 

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...PARKIN  
LONG TERM...DYE  
AVIATION...PARKIN  
 
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