138  
FXUS63 KABR 221127 AAA  
AFDABR  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD  
527 AM CST THU FEB 22 2024  
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
- MAINLY DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
THIS INCLUDES NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY.  
 
- BREEZY CONDITIONS TODAY, WITH WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH.  
 
- A SYSTEM EARLY NEXT WEEK COULD BRING A CHANCE (20-30 PERCENT) FOR  
PRECIPITATION. LIGHT RAIN WILL TRANSITION OVER TO ALL SNOW. AT THIS  
TIME, THERE LOOKS TO BE LIMITED MOISTURE POTENTIAL WITH THIS SYSTEM.  
 

 
   
UPDATE
 
 
ISSUED AT 524 AM CST THU FEB 22 2024  
 
SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON/
 
 
ISSUED AT 308 AM CST THU FEB 22 2024  
 
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY  
DURING THE NEAR TERM PERIOD, WITH A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES TRACKING  
ACROSS THE CWA. THE FIRST WILL BE DURING THE DAY TODAY, AND WILL  
JUST INCLUDE SOME WEAK ENERGY. THE SECOND WAVE WILL BRING SOME  
SLIGHTLY STRONGER ENERGY, WHICH WILL TRACK OVER MAINLY THE EASTERN  
HALF OF THE CWA.  
 
AT THE SURFACE, THE REGION WILL BE BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE TO THE EAST  
AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST TODAY. THERE WILL BE A BIT OF A  
TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS, WHICH WILL  
RESULT IN BREEZY CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTS GENERALLY IN  
THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE  
AREA LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY, BRINGING SOME COOLER AIR WITH IT,  
ESPECIALLY FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. WINDS WILL ALSO SHIFT  
FROM A NORTHWESTERLY TO A NORTHEASTERN DIRECTION WITH THE FRONTAL  
PASSAGE. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TODAY OR FRIDAY.  
 
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. LOW  
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 20S TO THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS  
ON FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA  
AND NORTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA, TO AROUND 50 DEGREES WEST OF THE  
MISSOURI RIVER.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 308 AM CST THU FEB 22 2024  
 
MILD TEMPERATURES WITH FAVORABLE MIXING CONDITIONS FOR SATURDAY,  
WHICH INCLUDE A WEST/NORTHWEST WIND COMPONENT AND WARM ADVECTION,  
THOUGH 850MB TEMPERATURES FALL SHORT OF A STANDARD DEVIATION ABOVE  
CLIMO. A WEAK FRONT COMES THROUGH IN THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS.  
THAT FRONT STALLS AND THEN WE GET BACK INTO A WARM ADVECTION REGIME  
FOR MONDAY IN WHICH WE SEE 850MB TEMPERATURES INCREASE TO A STANDARD  
DEVIATION ABOVE CLIMO. LOW PRESSURE FORMS ALONG THE WARM FRONTAL  
BOUNDARY THAT HAS NOW SHOT NORTHWARDS INTO NORTH DAKOTA. THE SYSTEM  
THAT FOLLOWS STILL LOOKS LIKE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY/WEAK LOW WITH  
MOISTURE LIMITED TO THE COLD ADVECTION SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. 850MB  
TEMPERATURES BOTTOM OUT A STANDARD DEVIATION BELOW CLIMO FOR THE  
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AS FOR MOISTURE POTENTIAL, NBM 48 HOUR QPF IS  
ONLY AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH, WITH A 25TH-75TH RANGE FROM ZERO TO  
ALMOST A QUARTER INCH. MEAN SNOWFALL IS 1-2 INCHES. BIG QUESTION HERE  
IS HOW LONG THAT COLD AIR STICKS AROUND, WITH THE NBM SHOWING QUITE  
THE RANGE DURING THAT TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME BEFORE TRENDING  
BACK TOWARDS ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 524 AM CST THU FEB 22 2024  
 
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG  
 
PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA WILL SEE MVFR VSBYS IN FOG THIS  
MORNING. ALSO, AN AREA OF IFR/MVFR CIGS WILL TRACK ACROSS THE  
AREA EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER THIS MORNING, AFFECTING KABR AND  
KATY. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AND TONIGHT.  
 

 
   
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
SD...NONE.  
MN...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...PARKIN  
LONG TERM...CONNELLY  
AVIATION...PARKIN  
 
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