946  
FXUS63 KABR 171726 AAD  
AFDABR  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD  
1226 PM CDT TUE SEP 17 2019  
   
UPDATE
 
 
ISSUED AT 1028 AM CDT TUE SEP 17 2019  
 
MADE A FEW MINOR TWEAKS TO INCREASE WIND AND WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE  
EAST, BUT OVERALL THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND NO MAJOR CHANGES  
ARE NEEDED.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)  
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT TUE SEP 17 2019  
 
WE'VE HAD STRONG WINDS REPORTED DOWNSLOPE OF THE SISSETON HILLS  
EARLY THIS MORNING WITH THE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM  
ACTIVITY, ENHANCED BY THE LOW LEVEL JET AND SHORTWAVE. THE  
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO EXIT TO THE NORTHEAST, MOSTLY OUT OF  
THE AREA BY 0930Z. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ALOFT, WITH  
SOUTHERLY WINDS NEAR THE SURFACE. 850MB TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM 20  
TO 25C, WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE MID 80S  
TO LOW 90S. GUSTY WINDS WILL REMAIN TODAY, MAINLY OVER AREAS EAST OF  
THE MISSOURI RIVER INTO THIS EVENING.  
 
WILL BE DIFFICULT TO GO MUCH HIGHER THAN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR LATE  
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS FOR  
STRONGER STORMS TO DEVELOP EITHER OVER OR MORE LIKELY EAST OF THE  
ABR FORECAST AREA 05-07Z. THIS WILL BE AHEAD OF A WEST TO EASTWARD  
PUSHING COLD FRONT. THE QUICK MOVING COLD FRONT SHOULD BE MAINLY  
EAST OF OUR COUNTIES BY 12Z WEDNESDAY.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)  
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT TUE SEP 17 2019  
 
STILL LOOKS LIKE A MOSTLY DRY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT  
OVER THIS CWA, PRIOR TO THE BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES FRIDAY INTO  
SATURDAY MORNING. THURSDAY EVENING/OVERNIGHT THERE COULD BE SOME  
CONVECTION GLANCING THE FAR WESTERN FORECAST ZONES (MAINLY  
CORSON/DEWEY) AS SHOWERS/STORMS THAT POTENTIALLY FORM/ORGANIZE OVER  
WY LIFT UP ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA/WESTERN DAKOTAS.  
 
THERE SHOULD BE NO LACK OF MOISTURE STACKED THROUGHOUT THE  
ATMOSPHERE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING TO AIDE IN HEAVY  
PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION, IF SHOWERS/STORMS CAN GET GOING. STILL  
A LOT OF MOVING PARTS NEEDING TO COME TOGETHER FOR ANY SORT OF  
SUBSTANTIVE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AT DAY 4, AND CERTAINLY PLENTY OF  
TIME FOR A STRONG STORM THREAT TO DE-MATERIALIZE/SHIFT TO SOME OTHER  
REGION OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR NOW.  
 
BEHIND THIS SYNOPTIC-SCALE DRIVEN WEATHER POTENTIAL, THERE REMAINS  
SUPPORT FOR A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER IN NORTHWEST FLOW, AT LEAST,  
FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.  
 
TEMPERATURES RUNNING NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY NIGHT  
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT, OUT AHEAD OF THIS LARGER-SCALE UPPER LEVEL  
TROF OF LOW PRESSURE, WILL POTENTIALLY DROP DOWN TO A FEW DEGREES  
BELOW NORMAL IN LOW LEVEL CAA BEHIND THE SYSTEM SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)  
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT TUE SEP 17 2019  
 
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH GUSTY  
SOUTHERLY WINDS THAT WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST BEHIND A FROPA  
TONIGHT.  
 

 
   
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
SD...NONE.  
MN...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
UPDATE...WISE  
SHORT TERM...KF  
LONG TERM...DORN  
AVIATION...WISE  
 
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