771
FXUS63 KABR 111522 AAB
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1022 AM CDT WED SEP 11 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- ELEVATED SMOKE WILL CONTINUE PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY INTO
TONIGHT, WHILE SURFACE SMOKE WILL SLOWLY EXIT THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.
- WINDY CONDITIONS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH GUSTS POTENTIALLY
EXCEEDING 45 MPH OVER CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA ON THURSDAY.
- ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH CHANCES
OF PRECIPITATION (20-45%) FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1020 AM CDT WED SEP 11 2024
INCREASED SKY COVER TO ACCOUNT FOR THE THICKER SMOKE OVER THE
REGION TODAY. STILL EXPECT SOME MARKED IMPROVEMENT THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON/
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT WED SEP 11 2024
POCKETS OF FOG ACROSS NORTHEAST SD EARLY THIS MORNING, MORE SO IN
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. HAD ALREADY
RECONSTRUCTED WX GRIDS A FEW HOURS AGO TO ADD FOG MENTION BASED ON
SOME OF THE LATEST HI-RES VISIBILITY OUTPUT, AND THUS FAR THINGS
SEEM TO BE DEVELOPING FAIRLY CLOSE TO MODELS' SUGGESTIONS. ABR HAS
BEEN AFFECTED THE MOST BY THE FOG, WITH VBSY DOWN TO 1/2SM CURRENTLY.
AS FOR SMOKE, NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF SURFACE VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS
IN OUR CWA IT APPEARS, WITH MBG AT 8SM, BUT THAT'S ABOUT IT. HRRR
SMOKE PRODUCT CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A RIBBON OF POTENTIAL SURFACE
SMOKE ACROSS NORTHERN SD, WHICH ACTUALLY RUNS THROUGH MBG AND
VERIFIED WITH SURFACE OBS, ALTHOUGH NOT REALLY SEEING ANYTHING AT
6SM OR BELOW QUITE YET. AS THE DAY PROGRESSES, SMOKE CONCENTRATIONS
LESSEN WHILE PUSHING OFF TO THE NORTH, SO IT WOULD APPEAR ANY
IMPACTS FROM SURFACE SMOKE WILL BE LIMITED TODAY AND EVENTUALLY
BECOMING A NON-ISSUE. NOW FOR THE SMOKE ALOFT, WILL STILL BE SEEING
PLENTY OF THAT TODAY AND TONIGHT BEFORE THINGS CLEAR OUT ON THURSDAY.
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS BEGIN RAMPING UP TODAY AS WE SEE SOUTHEAST
WINDS INCREASE ACROSS CENTRAL SD THIS AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 30 MPH. CURRENT RH FORECAST HAS VALUES GETTING DOWN TO
AROUND 20 PERCENT ACROSS JONES COUNTY, AND WITH RECENT INPUT OF
FUELS BEING CRITICAL NOW, DECIDED TO GO AHEAD WITH A RED FLAG
WARNING THIS AFTERNOON. WILL NEED TO CONSIDER ONE ON THURSDAY AS
WELL. WHILE WE DON'T QUITE HAVE RH BELOW 20 PERCENT, WINDS WILL BE
STRONG AND LIKELY GUSTING OVER 45 MPH. SHAPING UP TO BE ONE OF THESE
SCENARIOS WHERE RH CRITERIA MAY HAVE TO BE RELAXED SOME (PERHAPS
30%) DUE TO WINDS BEING SO STRONG. SPEAKING OF WINDS, IT APPEARS
WE'RE STILL ON TRACK FOR NEEDING A WIND ADVISORY ACROSS CENTRAL SD
ON THURSDAY, BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE AND MODEL/ENSEMBLE DATA. WILL
LET LATER SHIFTS IRON OUT THE DETAILS HERE IN REGARDS TO AREAL
COVERAGE OF THE ADVISORY AND JUST HOW FAR EAST TO EXTEND IT.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT WED SEP 11 2024
MAIN CONCERN FOR THE LONG TERM WILL BE THE ONGOING WINDY
CONDITIONS FRIDAY WITH THE RETURN OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES FRIDAY
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. CLUSTERS ARE STILL IN AGREEMENT AS A SLIGHT
NEGATIVE TILTED TROUGH WILL BE POSITIONED OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND
ITS CLOSED LOW OVER THE BORDER OF MT/CANADA BY 12Z FRIDAY. A
STRONGER JET STREAK IS NOTED RUNNING FROM THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND
NORTHWARD, WHICH WILL BE RIGHT OVER THE WESTERN/CENTRAL DAKOTAS.
THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE ITS TRACK NORTHEAST (AND JET STREAK) WITH
THE SYSTEM OVERALL WEAKENING. ANOTHER LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVES IN OFF
THE PACIFIC AND OVER THE WESTERN CONUS (AND DEEPENING) THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. CLUSTERS DIVERGE A BIT ON THE INTENSITY/POSITION OF THIS
NEXT SYSTEM.
850MB TO SURFACE LOW IS FORECASTED TO BE OVER SASKATCHEWAN EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING WITH ITS TROUGH AND COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWARD.
AS THE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST SO WILL THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE DAKOTAS
THROUGH SATURDAY. ENSEMBLES HAVE A PRETTY GOOD HANDLE ON PRECIP
MOVING WEST TO EAST/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA WITH THE FRONT, WITH
THE MAIN DIFFERENCE BEING THE INITIAL TIMING OF THE PRECIP ENTERING
THE WESTERN CWA. GEFS IS THE QUICKEST AND GEPS BEING THE SLOWEST.
PRECIP IS FORECASTED TO EXIT THE EASTERN CWA BY EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING OR SO. NBM SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS WITH POPS OF
20-45%, HIGHEST ALONG THE FRONT. PROBABILITY OF 24HR QPF>0.01"
ENDING SATURDAY 12Z RANGES FROM 45-70%, AGAIN HIGHEST ALONG THE
FRONT, AS IT TRAVERSES ACROSS THE CWA. PROB OF QPF>0.10" FOR THE
SAME TIME PERIOD RANGES FROM 25-45%. BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD BE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTIVE STORM THAT COULD INCREASE QPF FOR ANY
LOCATION. WEAK CAPE IS NOTED AHEAD AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT FRIDAY
(UNDER 500J/KG) WITH GEPS BEING A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE. HOWEVER,
SHEAR WILL RANGE BETWEEN 30-40KTS. SO WITH SHEAR AND ENOUGH HELP
FROM THE FRONT AND DIURNAL HEATING, GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ARE POSSIBLE. WITH MODELS INDICATING A LLJ
FORMING AHEAD OF THE FRONT, FORCING FOR THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. FORCING FROM
THIS NEXT LOW WILL BRING THE RETURN OF POPS (20-45%) MIDWEEK. RIGHT
NOW THIS IS BROADBRUSHED ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA DUE TO LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON THE POSITION OF SYSTEM, MENTIONED ABOVE.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH ON ONGOING WINDY CONDITIONS AS NAEFS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE MEAN MERIDIONAL WIND FROM 700-850MB RUNNING
97.5-99.5% ABOVE CLIMO AND MEAN WIND SPEED AT 850MB RUNNING 90-99.5%
ABOVE CLIMO, MAINLY OVER CENTRAL SD, PER THE STEEPER PRESSURE
GRADIENTS/JET STREAK. EFI STILL SHOWS 0.6-0.8 FOR WIND SPEED AND
WIND GUSTS FOR THIS AREA. LATEST NBM HAS SUSTAINED WINDS 20-30 KTS
ACROSS THE CWA WITH GUSTS RANGING FROM 30-45 KTS, HIGHEST OVER
CENTRAL SD, THURSDAY EVENING. THEY DO DIMINISH A BIT OVERNIGHT,
BETWEEN 15-25KTS AND GUSTS 20-35KTS, WITH THE GUSTIEST WINDS
SHIFTING EASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA BEFORE DIMINISHING TOWARDS THE
EVENING. LASTLY TEMPERATURES WILL STILL RUN ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE (WITH THE EXCEPTION ON SUNDAY WHICH IS 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE) FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 638 AM CDT WED SEP 11 2024
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
PATCHES OF BR/FG FLOATING AROUND OUT THERE THIS MORNING, POSSIBLY
AFFECTING KATY AND KPIR AT THE START OF THE TAF PERIOD. SATELLITE
TRENDS SUGGEST THE THREAT FOR THIS IN KABR HAS PROBABLY ENDED.
STILL SOME SURFACE SMOKE (FU) AFFECTING KMBG AND HAVE MAINTAINED
MENTION OF THAT FOR THE MORNING BEFORE THINGS IMPROVE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. STILL PLENTY OF SMOKE ALOFT OVER THE REGION AND
INSERTED SCT150 TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS, ALTHOUGH SOMEWHAT UNSURE AT
WHAT HEIGHTS THE SMOKE LAYERS ARE, AND HOW THICK THEY ARE.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR SDZ045.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...MMM
AVIATION...TMT
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