723
FXUS63 KABR 141119 AAA
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
519 AM CST WED JAN 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- COLDER TEMPERATURES TODAY AND BRIEF CHANCES(20%) OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING ACROSS AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER
VALLEY.
- SNOW IS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, MAINLY EAST OF THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY. HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
PRAIRIE COTEAU, WHERE UP TO TWO INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE (30-50%
CHANCE). ELSEWHERE, ACCUMULATIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE
MINIMAL.
- STRONG WINDS WILL RETURN THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY. WINDS
OF 35-45 MPH ARE EXPECTED, WITH GUSTS UP TO 60 MILES PER HOUR
POSSIBLE. A HIGH WIND WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR AREAS WEST BROWN
AND SPINK COUNTIES. THESE WINDS COMBINED WITH FALLING SNOW COULD
LEAD TO REDUCED VISIBILITY AND HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 512 AM CST WED JAN 14 2026
SEE BELOW FOR AN AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE 12Z TAFS.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON/
ISSUED AT 337 AM CST WED JAN 14 2026
AT 3 AM CST, SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM
EUREKA TO REDFIELD. WEST OF THAT LINE, SKIES ARE CLOUDY. A 160+KNOT
UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK IS POSITIONED ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA DOWN
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. SURFACE PRESSURE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A COLD FRONT
NEARLY STALLED OUT FROM NEAR MCINTOSH TO CHAMBERLAIN. TEMPERATURES
EAST OF THIS BOUNDARY HAVE COOLED INTO THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO
THE 20S, WHILE ALONG AND WEST OF THE BOUNDARY TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN
THE 30S TO NEARLY 40 DEGREES. WINDS, CWA-WIDE, ARE FROM THE NORTH
AROUND 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH. AND, WHILE REGIONAL
RADAR BEAMS ARE OVERSHOOTING THE CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION, OCCASIONAL
REPORTS OF LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES ARE BEING REPORTED ACROSS PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. MEANWHILE, THE STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT THAT STRONG CAA HAS BROUGHT TO THE FAR
EASTERN FORECAST ZONES EARLY THIS MORNING IS AIDING IN THE
DEVELOPMENT/CONTINUATION OF SCATTERED STRATO-CU COVERAGE AND
SCATTERED FLURRIES (LIGHT SNOW REPORTED AT WHEATON AND ORTONVILLE,
MN).
SOME SMALL POPS PERSIST FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING ALONG THE
NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG/JUST WEST OF THE MISSOURI
RIVER VALLEY OF THE CWA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS TAKING HOLD ACROSS
THE REGION AND CURRENT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
THE REST OF THE DAY. LATER TONIGHT, EVERYTHING WILL BEGIN TO SLOSH
BACK EASTWARD WITH MID/UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT RISES, LOW TO MID-LEVEL
WAA BEGINNING AND RETURN FLOW WINDS DEVELOPING. IN FACT, A NON-
DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TREND LATER TONIGHT IS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE. LATE
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING, THE WAA PATTERN AND THE LEADING EDGE
OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL UVV FIELD MAY BE ABLE TO EXTEND FAR ENOUGH
SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION TO PRODUCE A COUPLE OF BRIEF SHOWERS ACROSS
THE FAR EASTERN FORECAST ZONES AS ANY PRECIPITATION MOVES SWIFTLY
OFF TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST. OTHERWISE, TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY SHOULD
BE PREDOMINANTLY DRY. AGAIN, ANOTHER PERIOD OF "WARM SECTOR" WEST-
NORTHWEST MIXING WINDS, WITH 40+KNOTS ROARING OFF THE SURFACE, AND
PROBABLY NOT A SUFFICIENT ENOUGH MIXING ENVIRONMENT AT THE BOTTOM OF
THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO EFFICIENTLY MOMENTUM TRANSFER DOWN THOSE
HIGHER END WIND SPEEDS/GUSTS TO THE SURFACE BETWEEN 18Z THURSDAY AND
00Z FRIDAY. PERHAPS THERE MAY BE A FEW HOURS OF ADVISORY STRENGTH
GUSTS SOMEWHERE ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTH CENTRAL SODAK ON THURSDAY, BUT
WITH POTENTIALLY STRONGER WINDS LOOMING LATER THURSDAY NIGHT, NO
PLANS TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY RIGHT NOW FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 337 AM CST WED JAN 14 2026
THE SNOW AND WIND COMBINATION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY CONTINUES
TO BE THE FOCUS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD THIS MORNING. WHEN THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD OPENS, WINDS WILL ALREADY BE STRONG DUE TO
A LOW PRESSURE CENTER TO THE EAST PROVIDING A TIGHT GRADIENT.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ON AT LEAST WIND ADVISORY LEVELS BEING REACHED
WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER, BUT NBM PROBABILITIES DROP MOVING FURTHER
EAST TO ABOUT 50%. THERE IS A SIMILAR TREND FOR HIGH WIND WARNING
CRITERIA, IN WHICH THE AREAS WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY GIVE 20-
50% CHANCE FOR HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA (40 MILE PER HOUR
SUSTAINED OR 58 MILE PER HOUR GUSTS, BOTH OF WHICH ARE POSSIBLE).
PROBABILITIES DROP OFF ONCE AGAIN ALONG AND EAST OF THE JAMES. WHEN
CONSIDERING THAT THE WINDS AND GUSTS TEND TO TREND TOWARDS THE
NBM 75TH TO 90TH PERCENTILES UNDER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW COLD AIR
ADVECTION REGIMES, CONFIDENCE BEINGS TO INCREASE FURTHER ON THE
POTENTIAL FOR A HIGH WIND WARNING ON FRIDAY. THEREFORE, A HIGH
WIND WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY
FOR ALL AREAS WEST OF AND INCLUDING MCPHERSON, EDMUNDS, FAULK, AND
HAND COUNTIES.
A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF LIQUID PRECIPITATION IS STILL EXPECTED THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY, FALLING IN THE FORM OF SNOW. WHERE SNOW IS FALLING, IT
WILL COMBINE WITH THE STRONG WINDS TO REDUCE VISIBILITY, POTENTIALLY
SIGNIFICANTLY AT TIMES. IN TERMS OF THE SNOW SQUALL ENVIRONMENT, THE
ENVIRONMENTAL PARAMETERS STILL APPEAR TO BE IN PLACE ACCORDING TO
THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE. WHILE STILL A WAYS OUT, IT LOOKS LIKE
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AHEAD OF SUNRISE WILL BE THE OPTIMAL TIME FRAME
FOR ANY POTENTIAL SNOW SQUALL DEVELOPMENT. DURING THIS TIME FRAME
THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER TO THE EAST WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE REGION. THERE IS A BIT OF DISAGREEMENT IN THE LONGER-RANGE
MODELS (THE GFS AND NAM SPECIFICALLY) ABOUT THE EXTENT OF THE LIFT
OUT AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT. STRONG LAPSE RATES AND SURFACE BASED
LIFT LOOK TO BE PRESENT, BUT THE KEY QUESTION FOR CONSIDERING SNOW
SQUALL POTENTIAL IS WHETHER OR NOT THOSE PARAMETERS WILL LINE UP
WELL WITH THE COLD FRONT. WHILE THIS DISPARITY IN MODEL GUIDANCE IS
INTERESTING TO NOTE, HI-RES MODELS WILL LIKELY BECOME MORE USEFUL IN
THIS DIAGNOSIS AS MORE OF THEM COME INTO RANGE. THOSE THAT ARE IN
RANGE AT THIS TIME DO INDEED SIGNAL SOME DEVELOPMENT ALONG A BAND OR
BANDS OF FRONTOGENESIS, SO THE POTENTIAL REMAINS AND THE SITUATION
WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.
LOOKING AHEAD, NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE START
OF NEXT WEEK. SUNDAY EMERGES AS THE NEXT POTENTIAL HAZARDOUS SYSTEM,
AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE TRACKS TO THE EAST AND DRAGS A COLD FRONT
OVER THE REGION. SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED OVER
NORTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA, FALLING IN THE FORM OF SNOW. STRONG
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL ALSO PLAY A ROLE SUNDAY, WITH THE NBM
SHOWING A ROUGHLY 40-60% CHANCE TO REACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER
CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. THANKFULLY IN SUNDAY'S CASE,
THE HIGHEST WINDS AND THE FALLING SNOW DO NOT APPEAR TO BE CO-
LOCATED, SO VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS ARE NOT A LARGE CONCERN FOR THAT
TIME PERIOD AT THE MOMENT.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 512 AM CST WED JAN 14 2026
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
KABR/KATY ARE VFR AND FORECAST TO REMAIN SO THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD. FOR THE MOMENT, KPIR/KMBG ARE UNDER VFR STRATUS CLOUDS.
GUIDANCE HAS THESE TWO TERMINALS GETTING BACK INTO AN MVFR CIG
(~2000-3000FT AGL) BY LATE THIS MORNING AND PERSISTING FOR A FEW
HOURS BEFORE RETURNING TO VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE TAF
VALID PERIOD. NORTHERLY WINDS THIS MORNING WILL EVENTUALLY SWING
AROUND TO A LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND LATER TONIGHT.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON
FOR SDZ003>005-009-010-015>017-033>037-045-048-051.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...10
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...10
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