389  
FXUS63 KABR 280654  
AFDABR  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD  
154 AM CDT SAT JUN 28 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
- SHOWERS/STORMS (30-60% COVERAGE) EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A LOW  
RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER.  
 
- SLIGHT RISK (2 OF 5) AGAIN FOR THIS AFTERNOON, EAST OF A LINE FROM  
PIERRE TO ABERDEEN. WIND AND HAIL ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS,  
THOUGH CAN'T RULE OUT A BRIEF TORNADO IN FAR EASTERN SD/WESTERN MN.  
 
- ANOTHER CLUSTER OF STORMS (40-60% COVERAGE) COMING UP FROM THE  
SOUTHWEST EARLY SUNDAY MORNING FOR CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA BEFORE  
SPREADING EAST THROUGH THE MORNING. LOW RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER.  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
ISSUED AT 154 AM CDT SAT JUN 28 2025  
 
CLUSTER OF STORMS IN NORTH DAKOTA THREATENS THE NORTHERN CWA IF ANY  
OF THE STRONGER STORMS DECIDES TO DEVIATE TO THE RIGHT ON A 320-340  
DEGREE TRAJECTORY. OTHERWISE WE JUST HAVE SOME WEAK CONVECTION  
SMATTERED ACROSS THE CWA MAINLY EAST RIVER. ALL THIS IS COVERED BY  
CURRENT POPS. THERE IS THE QUESTION OF WHETHER THIS WILL GET MORE  
ORGANIZED OVERNIGHT AND LAY DOWN ENOUGH OUTFLOW TO INFLUENCE THE  
FINAL LOCATION FOR A SURFACE TROUGH AHEAD OF A LOW ACROSS EASTERN  
SOUTH DAKOTA AS A LOCATION FOR RE-DEVELOPMENT LATER TODAY. THE  
RESPONSIBLE SHORTWAVE IS TAKING ITS TIME MOVING EAST, SO CAMS HAVE  
HIGHLIGHTED THIS AREA FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER.  
ADDITIONALLY, ANOTHER WAVE, BACK INTO WYOMING WILL MAKE IT INTO  
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING. STRONGEST ACTIVITY WOULD BE OUT  
TOWARDS THE HILLS REGION, HOWEVER AS THE WAVE CONTINUES EAST  
NORTHEAST ELEVATED CONVECTION COULD BE COMING INTO THE MISSOURI  
VALLEY TOWARDS THE MORNING HOURS SUNDAY.  
 
SO, FOR THIS AFTERNOON, PROFILES INDICATE DECENT MID-LEVEL FLOW OF  
40KTS, THOUGH JET LEVEL WINDS ARE PRETTY WEAK WITH THE 200MB JET  
OVER NORTH DAKOTA. 1/2KM WINDS ARE ABOUT 25KTS DOWN IN THE SOUTHEAST  
CWA BEFORE THEY DECOUPLE AS A LOW LEVEL JET FORMS SOUTHEAST OF THE  
CWA. CAPE IS ONCE AGAIN UP TO BETWEEN 3500-4000J/KG BUT WITH ONLY  
30KTS 0-6 KM SHEAR. THATS ENOUGH SHEAR FOR SUPERCELL  
CHARACTERISTICS, BUT WITH WESTERLY MID-LEVELS OUTFLOWS WILL ALSO  
IMPACT STORM MODE. AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHIFTS STORMS OUT OF THE  
CWA BEFORE THE LOW LEVEL JET INFLUENCES STORM MODE.  
 
THERE IS THE SHORTWAVE OUT WEST THAT CAMS HAVE LATCHED ONTO. BETTER  
SHEAR ENVIRONMENT REMAINS TO THE NORTH, WITH STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE  
RATES UP THAT WAY, WHILE DOWN INTO CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA ITS A WEAKER  
SHEAR/WEAKER MUCAPE ENVIRONMENT. WILL PROBABLY JUST END UP WITH  
EARLY MORNING PULSE CONVECTION IN CENTRAL SD.  
 
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETS OVERHEAD FOR SUNDAY, WITH WEAK HIGH  
PRESSURE. WE GET CLIPPED BY A BACKDOOR FRONT MONDAY WITH A BRIEF  
COOL DOWN. A BROAD WEAK RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST FOR THE MIDDLE  
OF NEXT WEEK, WITH A SERIES OF WEAK RIDGE RIDERS KEEPING POPS IN THE  
FORECAST MAINLY FOR THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. NO MAJOR THERMAL  
ANOMALIES THOUGH 700MB TEMPERATURES ARE CREEPING UP TOWARDS +14 BY  
THURSDAY/FRIDAY.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 1229 AM CDT SAT JUN 28 2025  
 
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG  
 
STORMS IN SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA MAY MIGRATE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST  
AND CLIP THE KABR TERMINAL, WHILE WE HAVE SHOWERS MOVING TOWARDS  
THE KATY TERMINAL. ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS IS POSSIBLE FOR THE  
KATY TERMINAL AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON.  
 
A LOW LEVEL JET OVERHEAD WILL ALSO BE RESPONSIBLE FOR LLWS THIS  
MORNING.  
 

 
   
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
SD...NONE.  
MN...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
DISCUSSION...07  
AVIATION...07  
 
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