735  
FXUS63 KABR 221632 CCA  
AFDABR  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD  
1032 AM CST TUE JAN 22 2019  
   
UPDATE
 
 
ISSUED AT 1030 AM CST TUE JAN 22 2019  
 
FLURRIES OCCURRING THIS MORNING AT SEVERAL OBS ALONG WITH RADAR  
SHOWING WEAK RETURNS. UPDATED EARLIER TO MAKE THESE CHANGES.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)  
ISSUED AT 339 AM CST TUE JAN 22 2019  
 
DEFORMATION ZONE LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES ACROSS NORTHEAST SD AND WEST  
CENTRAL MN. AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE BEFORE THE  
RESPONSIBLE UPPER LOW EXITS AND SNOW COMES TO AN END EARLY THIS  
MORNING.  
 
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSITION EAST THROUGH THE PLAINS  
TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY SETTLES IN AT THE SFC. CLOUDS WILL  
REMAIN OVER THE DAKOTAS TODAY IN THE TROUGH. ANOTHER WEAK SFC  
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE DAKOTAS ON WEDNESDAY, THOUGH DRY  
CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED AT THAT POINT IN THE FORECAST. COLD  
AIR ADVECTION WILL BEGIN TO PUSH DOWN FROM THE NORTH BY LATE WED  
AFTERNOON. FOR NOW, THE FORECAST DEPICTS A DIURNAL TEMP TREND, BUT  
MAY NEED TO CONSIDER A NON-DIURNAL FOR WED DEPENDING ON TIMING OF  
CAA.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)  
ISSUED AT 339 AM CST TUE JAN 22 2019  
 
MAIN FOCUS FOR THE LONG RANGE PERIOD ARE THE STRONG WINDS THURSDAY  
FOLLOWED BY MORE EXTREME COLD, THEN A LATE WEEK CLIPPER. OTHERWISE,  
FOR THE WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK WE REMAIN UNDER A BROAD CENTRAL CONUS  
UPPER TROUGH, WITH AN ACTIVE PATTERN THOUGH APPARENTLY NO MAJOR  
SYSTEMS, AS WELL AS THE ARCTIC FRONT WOBBLING ACROSS THE REGION.  
 
WINDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MIXED WINDS IN BUFKIT (NAM) IS IN THE UPPER  
30KT RANGE, SO UTILIZED THE HIGH END GUIDANCE, AND CONTINUE TO  
MENTION BLOWING SNOW GIVEN THE FLUFF THAT IS OUT THERE. STRONGEST  
WINDS WILL BE SET BACK FROM FRONTAL PASSAGE HOWEVER, WITH PRESSURE  
RISES AND STRONGEST GRADIENT OVERNIGHT. PRESSURE RISES PEAK AROUND  
12MB, WITH A 14MB GRADIENT ACROSS THE STATE, AND TEMPERATURE DROPS  
AROUND 15C. THIS IS AHEAD OF A 1040MB ARCTIC HIGH, AND WILL LIKELY  
RESULT IN GROUND BLIZZARD CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.  
 
WITH THE HIGH OVERHEAD DURING THE DAY, WHILE WINDS WILL DIMINISH  
RAPIDLY, TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RECOVER DESPITE SUNSHINE. READINGS  
WILL BOTTOM OUT EARLY IN THE EVENING, BUT AS THE HIGH MOVES SOUTH WE  
GET BACK INTO A WARM ADVECTION PATTERN THAT WILL ARREST TEMPERATURE  
DROPS, BUT NOT BEFORE READINGS FALL INTO THE NEGATIVE TEENS (IF NOT  
LOWER).  
 
THE LAST FEATURE THAT FOLLOWS IS A CLIPPER, WHICH IS SOMEWHAT  
ASSOCIATE WITH THE WARM ADVECTION PATTERN (AND SHOULD ADD THAT  
CLOUDS WILL ALSO CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO STALL). A DEEP DENDRITIC  
GROWTH ZONE WILL AID IN SNOW GENERATION, HOWEVER THIS SYSTEM IS FAST  
MOVING WHICH WILL OVERALL LIMIT QPF. PRESSURE FALLS, AND THEN RISES  
ARE LOCALIZED TO THE DAKOTAS BUT WILL PROBABLY RESULT IN ADDITIONAL  
BLOWING AND DRIFTING.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CST MON JAN 21 2019  
 
OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS, EXPECT MVFR/IFR TO PERSIST, ALONG WITH  
SOME PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW, AND PERHAPS A LITTLE  
FREEZING DRIZZLE. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP BY MORNING AND  
CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY CREATING OCCASIONALLY REDUCED VISIBILITY  
IN BLOWING SNOW. SOME IMPROVEMENT IS FORECAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON  
AND EVENING.  
 

 
   
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
SD...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY  
NIGHT FOR SDZ004-005-009-010-016-017-034>037.  
 
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY  
MORNING FOR SDZ006>008-011-018>023.  
 
MN...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY  
MORNING FOR MNZ039-046.  
 

 
 

 
 
UPDATE...MOHR  
SHORT TERM...WISE  
LONG TERM...CONNELLY  
AVIATION...DORN  
 
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