652  
FXUS63 KABR 191744  
AFDABR  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD  
1244 PM CDT TUE MAR 19 2019  
   
UPDATE
 
 
ISSUED AT 1029 AM CDT TUE MAR 19 2019  
 
CONTINUE TO WATCH THE SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF STRATUS/FOG AS IT  
MOVES THROUGH THE CWA. WEB CAMS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL SD SHOW FOG,  
MAINLY EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. MADE SOME CHANGES TO WX GRIDS  
TO REFLECT A LARGER AREA OF FOG OVER THE CWA TODAY, WITH LOWER  
VISIBILITY. COULD EVEN BE SOME DENSE FOG AS A FEW OBS JUST NORTH  
OF THE STATE LINE ARE AROUND 1/4SM OR LESS. WILL CONTINUE TO  
MONITOR AND MAKE CHANGES AS NEEDED, BUT THIS COULD BE A QUICK  
CHANGE FROM SUNNY SKIES, TO CLOUDS AND DENSE FOG IN A SHORT TIME  
FRAME FOR SOME AREAS, INCLUDING ABERDEEN WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR  
TWO. OTHERWISE, MANY LOCATIONS ARE IN THE 30S ALREADY, AND WITH  
THE CLOUDS MOVING IN, CURRENT HIGHS APPEAR ON TRACK.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)  
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT TUE MAR 19 2019  
 
A WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN  
PORTIONS OF THE CWA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. STILL SOME WEAK  
ECHOES SHOWING UP ON RADAR, SO COULD BE SOME FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW  
SHOWERS YET THIS MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. THERE ARE  
CURRENTLY SOME LOWER CLOUDS TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE CWA  
THAT MAY YET AFFECT PARTS OF THE AREA TODAY AS WELL. HIGH PRESSURE  
MOVES IN BEHIND THE EXITING FRONT THIS AFTERNOON, BECOMING THE  
DOMINANT FEATURE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY,  
RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS.  
 
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S TODAY, WITH  
OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID 20S. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE  
IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)  
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT TUE MAR 19 2019  
 
A WEAK UPPER RIDGE WILL DOMINATE CONDITIONS FOR THE FIRST FEW  
DAYS OF THE EXTENDED, BUT THERE WILL BE A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH  
THAT MOVES INTO THE PLAINS FOR THE WEEKEND, THOUGH IT APPEARS THAT  
THE BEST UPPER FORCING ENDS UP TO THE WEST AND THE SYSTEM WILL THEN  
WEAKEN AND DRIFT EAST AND THEN MERGE WITH NORTHWEST FLOW TO OUR EAST  
TO THEN GET SHUNTED AWAY FROM THE AREA. NOT MUCH AGREEMENT ON  
STRENGTH/TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW AND OTHER ASSOCIATED FEATURES AT  
THIS POINT, OTHER THAN TO BRING A MILDER AIRMASS INTO THE REGION,  
ONE THAT COMES WITH SOME HUMIDITY AS WELL, ESCALATING SNOW MELT  
RATES. AS FOR PRECIPITATION, THE GFS IS BY FAR THE MOST AGGRESSIVE.  
SOUNDINGS THAT FAR OUT SUGGEST RAIN AS THE MAJORITY P-TYPE.  
CONFIDENCE IS POOR THOUGH GIVEN THE WEAKER/MORE SOUTH-TRACK PREFERRED  
CANADIAN/ECMWF PRESSURE PATTERN AND THE FACT THAT THE JET IS  
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE SOUTHERN STREAM DOMINANT, LEAVING THIS  
SYSTEM WITH LITTLE FAVORABLE JET LEVEL DYNAMICS.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)  
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT TUE MAR 19 2019  
 
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS OVER KMBG AND KPIR WILL SLOWLY RAISE UP AND MOVE  
OUT OF THE REGION IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY, OTHERWISE MOSTLY  
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE REST OF TUESDAY. DEVELOPING LOW  
STRATUS OVER KATY OVERNIGHT COULD BRING CIGS BACK DOWN TO MVFR/IFR  
IN THE EASTERN CWA.  
 

 
   
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
SD...NONE.  
MN...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
UPDATE...TMT  
SHORT TERM...PARKIN  
LONG TERM...CONNELLY  
AVIATION...DYE  
 
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