457  
FXUS63 KABR 191930  
AFDABR  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD  
230 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2024  
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
- THERE IS A 60 TO 90 PERCENT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS  
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE  
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  
 
- SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE DRY AND WARM.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
 
 
ISSUED AT 229 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2024  
 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT AND  
THURSDAY. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL DRAW UP MOISTURE AT THE  
LOWER LEVELS ON THURSDAY AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE  
UPPER RIDGE WILL ADD SOME LIFT. POPS WILL INCREASE FROM SOUTHWEST TO  
NORTHEAST TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY THOUGH THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE WILL  
BE FOCUSED ALONG AND SOUTH OF HWY 212. INSTABILITY REMAINS LIMITED,  
SO WHILE GENERAL THUNDER IS EXPECTED, THERE'S NO SEVERE OUTLOOK IN  
EFFECT AT THE MOMENT.  
 
THURSDAY NIGHT, A WARM FRONT WILL STRETCH NORTHEAST INTO SOUTH  
CENTRAL SD. FOR THURSDAY NIGHT, THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REMAIN NON-  
SEVERE WITH THE BEST INSTABILITY FARTHER SOUTH ALONG THE SD/NE  
BORDER WITH THE FRONT.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 229 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2024  
 
FRIDAY WE HAVE A LEE SIDE LOW MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION WITH  
A WARM FRONT DRAPED WEST TO EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN SD AND MOVING NORTH  
TO NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY. SATURDAY, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES  
ACROSS OUR NORTH BEFORE A RIDGE MOVES IN SUNDAY. THE AXIS OF THIS  
RIDGE MOVES ACROSS OUR AREA FAIRLY QUICKLY AND WE ARE LEFT IN  
WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT WHEN A RIDGE STARTS TO  
BUILD AGAIN.  
 
FRIDAY LOOKS TO HAVE THE MOST ACTIVE WEATHER OF THE PERIOD WITH  
SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING BECOMING STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE  
STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON (60 TO 90% CHANCES). THE WARM FRONT WILL  
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AND BECOME A FOCAL POINT FOR STORM FORMATION.  
LAPSE RATES ARE AROUND 6.3 TO 7.3 C/KM, DEPENDING ON THE MODEL,  
WHICH IS FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL, BUT NOT OVERLY SO. MLCAPE VALUES  
RANGE FROM 1000 TO 1500 J/KG EXCEPT IN THE NAM WHICH HAS SOME VALUES  
IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG FRIDAY EVENING OVER EASTERN SD. SPC CURRENTLY  
HAS MOST OF SD EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER IN A MARGINAL (1 OUT OF 5)  
RISK BUT MENTIONED THAT THIS COULD BE INCREASED TO A SLIGHT RISK IN  
FUTURE UPDATES. STORM CHANCES DECREASE AFTER SUNDOWN, BUT SHOWERS  
MAY CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY MORNING. OVERALL, THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED  
TO BRING SOME PRETTY SIGNIFICANT RAIN AMOUNTS TO THE AREA WITH 45 TO  
85% CHANCES OF MORE THAN HALF AN INCH IN 24 HOURS (ENDING SATURDAY  
MORNING) ACROSS ALL AREAS EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. THE REST OF  
THE PERIOD LOOKS DRY FOR THE MOST PART, EXCEPT SOME POSSIBLE LIGHT  
SHOWERS TUESDAY.  
 
TEMPERATURES WILL BE INCREASING FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE PERIOD,  
PEAKING ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S. THE SECOND PORTION WILL BE  
SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S. WINDS WILL BE AROUND NORMAL,  
GUSTING UP TO AROUND 20 MPH.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2024  
 
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG  
 
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING.  
MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL MOVE IN WITH RAIN TOWARD MORNING AND AFFECT  
KPIR AND KATY THE SOONEST.  
 

 
   
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
SD...NONE.  
MN...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...WISE  
LONG TERM...KK  
AVIATION...WISE  
 
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