992  
FXUS63 KABR 180213 AAB  
AFDABR  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD  
913 PM CDT WED OCT 17 2018  
   
UPDATE
 
 
ISSUED AT 912 PM CDT WED OCT 17 2018  
 
CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK, THEREFORE NO CHANGES MADE AT THIS  
TIME.  
 

 
 
   
SHORT TERM
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)  
ISSUED AT 353 PM CDT WED OCT 17 2018  
 
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RETREAT TO OUR EAST TONIGHT  
AS A WARM FRONT SLOWLY PROGRESSES FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE  
DAKOTAS. A WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION  
TONIGHT AS A MORE SOUTHWEST COMPONENT TO THE WIND BEGINS. LOWS  
TONIGHT WILL NOT BE QUITE AS CHILLY AS THEY WERE THIS MORNING WITH  
MOST AREAS FALLING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S EAST TO LOW 40S IN OUR  
WESTERN CWA. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE  
DAKOTAS ON THURSDAY AS WE STAY IN BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS. BREEZY TO  
WINDY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL KICK IN BY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING IN  
WARMER TEMPS; WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR MOST LOCALES AS READINGS TOP OUT  
IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST IN THIS  
FORECAST PERIOD.  
 
   
LONG TERM
 
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 353 PM CDT WED OCT 17 2018  
 
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THIS FORECAST PERIOD. IN  
FACT, NO PRECIP SHOWS UP IN THE EXTENDED UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF NEXT  
WEEK WHEN OUR NEXT REAL CHANCE FOR RAIN DEVELOPS. OUR FORECAST AREA  
WILL SEE A COUPLE OF MOISTURE STARVED FRONTAL PASSAGES THE END OF  
THE WEEK INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND. ALL THESE SYSTEMS WILL  
DO IS COOL OUR TEMPS BACK A NOTCH OR TWO FROM NEAR NORMAL ON FRIDAY  
TO BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY. A WEAK S/W TROUGH WILL MOVE IN FROM THE  
SOUTHWEST TO START THE PERIOD AND HELP TO DRAG A SFC COLD FRONT  
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOP FRIDAY AS  
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS BEGIN TO USHER IN SOME COOLER TEMPS. STILL  
ANTICIPATE SUNNY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL, BUT LITTLE TO NO MOISTURE  
WITH THIS FROPA WILL MEAN DRY WEATHER PERSISTS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT  
PUSHES THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AS A MORE VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH SLIDES  
FROM SOUTHERN CANADA INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL HAVE A  
LITTLE MORE PUNCH WITH IT IN TERMS OF COOLER AIR. HIGHS SATURDAY  
WILL STAY IN THE 40S EAST TO LOW 50S WEST.  
 
A MODERATING TREND LOOKS TO TAKE PLACE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS UPPER  
LEVEL HEIGHTS GRADUALLY RISE AND A RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDS IN. TEMPS  
WILL BE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO LOW  
60S AND LOWS IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40 DEGREES FROM SUNDAY THROUGH THE  
END OF THE PERIOD. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO PUSH THROUGH  
THE REGION LATE IN THE PERIOD WHICH COULD BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR  
SOME RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY TO A PORTION OF OUR CWA THE MIDDLE OF NEXT  
WEEK.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)  
ISSUED AT 626 PM CDT WED OCT 17 2018  
 
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND THROUGH  
THE DAY THURSDAY. LOOK FOR SOUTHERLY WINDS TO INCREASE INTO THE 15  
TO 25 KNOT RANGE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  
 

 
 
   
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
SD...NONE.  
MN...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
UPDATE...PARKIN  
SHORT TERM...VIPOND  
LONG TERM...VIPOND  
AVIATION...PARKIN  
 
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