581  
FNUS74 KMRX 231813  
FWSMRX  
 
SPOT FORECAST FOR SAR ALUM CAVE...NPS  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN  
213 PM EDT TUE JUL 23 2024  
 
FORECAST IS BASED ON FORECAST START TIME OF 1400 EDT ON JULY 23.  
 
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE,CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER  
SERVICE...AT 1-800-697-0075. IF POSSIBLE, PLEASE PROVIDE FEEDBACK  
FOR EVERY SPOT FORECAST REQUEST.  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING IN THE SMOKIES, TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE  
SAR SITE AT THIS HOUR. THIS WILL PROGRESS IN COVERAGE AND EXPECT  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO BE ONGOING AT, OR WITHIN 5 MILES  
OF THE SAR SITE 230 PM EDT. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE OFF AN ON THROUGH  
THE EVENING HOURS. OVERNIGHT, CANNOT RULE OUT ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM  
ACTIVITY, BUT UNCERTAINTY IN COVERAGE AND LOCATION PRECLUDE GIVING  
MUCH MORE THAN A 30-40 PERCENT CHANCE AFTER MIDNIGHT. WINDS SHOULD BE  
GENERALLY LIGHT, BUT WINDS ABOVE 30 MPH COULD OCCUR IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS  
THAT PASS THROUGH THE SAR SITE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL AT HIGHER  
ELEVATIONS, GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S TODAY AND TOMORROW.  
ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TOMORROW.  
   
REST OF TODAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS  
WITH THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......90 PERCENT.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 64.  
MIN HUMIDITY........87 PERCENT.  
DEWPOINT............60.  
SURFACE WINDS (MPH).WEST WINDS AROUND 6 MPH DECREASING TO SOUTHWEST  
AROUND 5 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.  
 
TIME (EDT) 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM 7PM  
SKY (%).........74 79 88 87 86 81  
WEATHER COV.....CHC LKY DEF DEF DEF DEF  
WEATHER TYPE....RW RW RW RW RW RW  
TSTM COV........CHC LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY  
CHC OF PCPN (%).50 70 90 90 90 70  
TEMP............64 62 62 62 62 59  
DEWPOINT........60 61 61 61 61 59  
RH..............87 97 97 97 97 100  
SURFACE WND DIR.SW W W SW SW SW  
SURFACE WND SPD.6 6 5 5 5 5  
SURFACE WND GST.10 9 10 9 9 9  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). CHANCE OF  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......50 PERCENT.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 57.  
MAX HUMIDITY........100 PERCENT.  
DEWPOINT............58.  
SURFACE WINDS (MPH).WEST WINDS 5 TO 6 MPH.  
 
TIME (EDT) 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM 6 AM  
SKY (%).........71 69 72 76 79 87  
WEATHER COV.....CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE  
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR  
TSTM COV........CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE  
CHC OF PCPN (%).50 50 40 30 30 40  
TEMP............59 59 57 59 59 58  
DEWPOINT........59 59 57 59 59 58  
RH..............100 100 100 100 100 100  
SURFACE WIND....SW 5 S 6 S 6 SW 6 SW 6 SW 6  
SURFACE WND GST.9 9 9 9 10 10  
   
WEDNESDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS  
LIKELY IN THE MORNING. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS  
THROUGH THE DAY. RAIN SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......80 PERCENT.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 62.  
SURFACE WINDS (MPH).WEST WINDS 6 TO 7 MPH SHIFTING TO THE AROUND 5  
MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON, THEN BECOMING LIGHT  
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.  
 
TIME (EDT) 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM 6 PM  
SKY (%).........85 85 85 91 84 69  
WEATHER COV.....CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE LIKELY DEFNTE LIKELY  
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR  
TSTM COV........ CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE  
CHC OF PCPN (%).50 50 50 60 80 70  
TEMP............58 59 59 60 61 61  
SURFACE WIND....W 7 W 6 W 6 W 6 W 5 W 5  
SURFACE WND GST.10 10 10 10 10 9  
 

 
FORECASTER...CHARLES DALTON  
REQUESTED BY...DORALIZ HEEMSTRA  
TYPE OF REQUEST...SAR  
.TAG 2418750.0/MRX  
.DELDT 07/23/24  
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0  
.EMAIL GRSM_DISPATCH@NPS.GOV  
 
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