422
FXUS64 KHUN 171408
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
808 AM CST TUE FEB 17 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 808 AM CST TUE FEB 17 2026
- UNSEASONABLY MILD WEATHER LASTS THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGHS WILL BE
IN THE 60S AND 70S.
- LOW TO MEDIUM RAIN CHANCES, INCLUDING A FEW THUNDERSTORMS FROM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
- COLDER CONDITIONS RETURN TO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 808 AM CST TUE FEB 17 2026
LOW CLOUDS HAVE PUSHED INTO NW AL AND WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
SPREAD EASTWARD BY TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO SOUTHERLY FLOW AS A SFC
HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST. HIGHS UNDER THIS
CLOUD COVER WILL STILL WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S THROUGH MOST
OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. TONIGHT, AS CLOUD COVER BECOMES MORE
WIDESPREAD, LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN MILD - ONLY
DROPPING INTO THE 50S. A 40-50 KT LLJ WILL SWING NORTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY, RESULTING IN HEIGHTENED WIND GUSTS
(UP TO 20 MPH) LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THIS, COMBINED
WITH CLOUD COVER, SHOULD PREVENT FOG FORMATION.
SHORT TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 808 AM CST TUE FEB 17 2026
AS SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD,
INCREASED MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND SUBSEQUENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM (MORE ON THAT IN THE
LONG TERM SECTION). HOWEVER, ZONAL FLOW WILL TAKE OVER ON
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, WHICH WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED DRY
CONDITIONS AND MILD TEMPERATURES. HIGHS DURING THIS TIME ARE
FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE 60S TO 70S, WHICH IS ~10-15 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. LOW RAIN CHANCES (20%) RETURN
THURSDAY AHEAD OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 939 PM CST MON FEB 16 2026
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD, THE FIRST OF SEVERAL MID LEVEL LOWS WILL
BE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE
CYCLONE WILL BE TREKKING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY BRINGING A RISK FOR
SEVERE WEATHER TO THAT REGION. LOCALLY, THIS SURFACE CYCLONE LOOKS TO
PASS NORTH OF US AND DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH FROM LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY. MID WEEK WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
PLACE US IN A FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT FOR SEVERE WEATHER,
HOWEVER WITHOUT PROXIMITY TO THE SURFACE LOW, WE WILL BE LACKING
NECESSARY FORCING. THUS, AT THIS TIME THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WILL
BE MARKED WITH INCREASED RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH
CHANCES FOR SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. WE WILL BE CLOSELY WATCHING
THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW TO CONTINUE TO ASSESS OUR SEVERE
WEATHER CHANCES.
FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, THE PASSAGE OF SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES WILL BLEND TOGETHER AMOUNTING TO PROLONGED LOW TO MEDIUM
(30-60%) RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES EACH DAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL
DECREASE AS FLOW GRADUALLY TRANSITIONS TO THE NW THROUGH MONDAY,
COOLING HIGHS FROM THE 70S ON FRIDAY TO THE LOW 50S ON MONDAY. LOWS
LOOK TO FOLLOW A SIMILAR TREND COOLING BACK BELOW FREEZING BY THE
START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 442 AM CST TUE FEB 17 2026
AN AREA OF LOW CEILINGS BELOW 008AGL (IFR AND LIFR) WILL ENTER FAR
NORTHWEST AL FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE
THE CEILINGS WILL ARRIVE IN KMSL BY 12Z, LIFTING TO 015-025AGL
(MVFR) BY 16Z AND DISSIPATING OR MOVING AWAY BY 19Z WITH VFR
CONDITIONS RETURNING. ELSEWHERE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL LOWER CLOUDS OF 010-020AGL
(MVFR) ARE FORECAST TO REDEVELOP BY 04-07Z. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
GUST AT TIMES TODAY AT 15-20KT.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...HC
SHORT TERM....HC
LONG TERM....RAD
AVIATION...17
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