501
FXUS64 KHUN 191512
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1012 AM CDT SUN JUL 19 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1012 AM CDT SUN JUL 19 2026
- MODERATE (LEVEL 2/4) TO MAJOR (LEVEL 3/4) HEAT RISK WILL BUILD
INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, WITH
PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES BETWEEN 100 TO 105 DEGREES LIKELY, AND
POTENTIALLY BETWEEN 105-109 DEGREES IN SOME LOCATIONS MONDAY
AND TUESDAY.
- DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE TODAY.
GUSTY TO DAMAGING WINDS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1012 AM CDT SUN JUL 19 2026
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED STORMS WERE ONGOING OVER
NORTHWEST AND NORTH-CENTRAL ALABAMA AS OF THIS WRITING. WITH NO
PRONOUNCED MECHANISM FOR LIFT ALOFT OVER THE LOCAL AREA YET THIS
MORNING, THINKING THAT THIS ACTIVITY WAS SPURRED ON BY OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES OVERNIGHT. THIS COULD BEEN SEEN WELL ON VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY. HOWEVER, A SURFACE FRONT IS SLATED TO MAKE ITS
WAY SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THROUGH THE DAY. THIS
WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS AND MECHANISM THAT WE WILL MONITOR FOR
STORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON; ALTHOUGH, SOME GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT
THIS FRONT MAY ACTUALLY STALL TO OUR NORTH AND NOT EVER MAKE IT
INTO NORTH ALABAMA. REGARDLESS, MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ELEVATED
TODAY WITH PWATS AROUND 2.0 INCHES OR GREATER. THIS COMBINED WITH
FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S
WILL RESULT IN HEAT INDEX VALUES BETWEEN 98-106 DEGREES IN
ADDITION TO A MODERATE HEATRISK (LEVEL 2 OF 4) AND WBGTS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S. THE MORE INTENSE HEAT WILL LIKELY BE
CONCENTRATED OVER MORE URBAN AREAS LIKE THE MUSCLE SHOALS AND
HUNTSVILLE AREAS. BUT, THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN HOW HOT IT WILL
REALLY GET THIS AFTERNOON BECAUSE OF THE MEDIUM TO HIGH SHOWER
AND STORM CHANCES (40-70%) FORECAST TODAY. EVEN SO, PLEASE
REMEMBER HEAT SAFETY. STAY HYDRATED, TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS IN THE
SHADE, AND NEVER LEAVE PEOPLE OR PETS IN VEHICLES!
WITH THE SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY THIS MORNING, THIS ALSO RAISES
QUESTIONS ABOUT WHETHER THE LOW CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE
DAMPENED THIS AFTERNOON. LAPSE RATES ARE LOW AT THE MOMENT, AROUND
5-6 DEG C/KM, BUT THIS WILL BE MONITORED THROUGH THE DAY
ESPECIALLY IF CURRENT SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY CEASES ENOUGH FOR THE
ATMOSPHERE TO RECOVER. EVEN WITH AMPLE INSTABILITY, SHEAR IS VERY
LOW. THEREFORE, OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE OCCURRENCE OF SEVERE
STORMS IS LOW; BUT, IF A STRONGER STORM IS ABLE TO DEVELOP, GUSTY
TO DAMAGING WINDS, HEAVY RAIN, AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL BE THE
MAIN THREATS. ADDITIONALLY, THE MAIN TIME WINDOW REMAINS FROM
1-8PM THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING, WITH ACTIVITY THEN WANING AFTER
SUNSET. STAY WEATHER AWARE TODAY AND MAKE SURE TO HAVE MULTIPLE
WAYS OF RECEIVING WARNING INFORMATION!
LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE WARM DUE TO ELEVATED MOISTURE LEVELS, WITH
VALUES IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. NO RAIN IS FORECAST LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING, BUT WE'LL NEED TO MONITOR FOR AT LEAST
PATCHY FOG FOR AREAS THAT RECEIVE RAINFALL TODAY DUE TO CALM
WINDS, LOW DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS, AND POTENTIAL BREAKS IN CLOUDS.
SHORT TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1012 AM CDT SUN JUL 19 2026
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL US TRIES TO BUILD SOUTHEAST
INTO THE REGION, BUT THE TROPICAL SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER THE
EASTERN GULF LOOKS TO MEANDER TO THE WEST ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST THROUGH MIDWEEK. THIS MAY PREVENT THE RIDGE FROM BUILDING
INTO OUR AREA QUITE AS MUCH. ALTHOUGH, HIGH PRESSURE IS SLATED TO
DEVELOP OVER THE APPALACHIANS ONCE THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE
FRONT PUSHES BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT MONDAY NIGHT. EVEN SO,
HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOW TO MEDIUM
SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES (20-40%) ON MONDAY LOOK TO DECREASE BY
TUESDAY TO BE MAINLY LOW (10-30%, HIGHEST OVER NE AL AND TN
COUNTIES). SPC DID CLIP THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE LOCAL AREA IN
A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER ON TUESDAY; HOWEVER, CURRENT
THINKING IS THAT MOST OF THE STORM ACTIVITY WILL BE CONCENTRATED
TO OUR NORTHEAST. SO, CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON ANY SEVERE WEATHER ON
TUESDAY.
THE MAIN CONCERN WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE HEAT AS HIGH HUMIDITY
PERSISTS AND HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER TO MID 90S WITH
LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S (APPROACHING UPPER 70S IN SOME
LOCATIONS) MONDAY AND TUESDAY. MUCH LIKE TODAY (SUNDAY),
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN WHETHER SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY WILL
DAMPEN HEAT A BIT ON MONDAY. HOWEVER, HEAT INDEX VALUES MAY REACH
THE 100-107 DEGREE RANGE ONCE AGAIN ON MONDAY WITH A MODERATE
HEATRISK (LEVEL 2 OF 4) AND WBGTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. WITH
LOWER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS ANTICIPATED ON TUESDAY, THE
FORECAST CONTINUES TO PINPOINT THAT THIS DAY WILL BE THE HOTTEST
OF THE WEEK WITH HEAT INDICES IN THE 102-109 DEGREE RANGE, ALONG
WITH A MAJOR HEATRISK (LEVEL 3 OF 4) AND WBGTS IN THE UPPER 80S TO
AROUND 90 DEGREES IN SOME SPOTS. A HEAT ADVISORY FOR TUESDAY WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR ALL OF NORTH ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE
TENNESSEE IN SUBSEQUENT UPDATES. STAY HYDRATED, TAKE FREQUENT
BREAKS IN THE SHADE, AND NEVER LEAVE PEOPLE OR PETS IN VEHICLES!
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 854 PM CDT SAT JUL 18 2026
A STRONG MEAN UPPER TROUGH POSITION WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE
GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST U.S. LATE NEXT WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND
WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE SITS OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL
KEEP A ROBUST NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
CORN BELT INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. THE GOOD NEWS FOR THE LOCAL
AREA IS THAT A COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE DELIVERING NOTICEABLY
DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION, AT LEAST FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS WITH DEW
POINTS DROPPING INTO THE 60S. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
80S THURSDAY, FOLLOWED BY LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S. BY NEXT
WEEKEND, "RIDGE RIDER" MCSS MAY START TO CLIP OUR AREA WITH LOW
CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS INTRODUCED INTO THE FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. THE RISK OF SOME SEVERE WEATHER WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED IN THIS PATTERN WITH INCREASING SHEAR AND STRONG
INSTABILITY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 647 AM CDT SUN JUL 19 2026
THERE WILL BE INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS, WITH SOME LIGHT TO
MODERATE SHOWERS ALREADY DEVELOPING EARLY THIS MORNING.
REDUCTIONS TO MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY DURING HEAVIER
STORMS AND THERE WILL BE A RISK FOR WIND GUSTS UP TO 55KTS, SMALL
HAIL, AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. AIRPORT WEATHER WARNINGS MAY BE
NEEDED THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AT BOTH TERMINALS. OUTSIDE OF
THIS, VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PREVAIL WITH SCATTERED MID TO
HIGH CLOUDS AND LIGHT/VAR WINDS.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM....26
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...25
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page