619
FXUS64 KHUN 170652
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
152 AM CDT SUN MAY 17 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1045 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2026
- A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND ON SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.
- LOW CHANCES FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN FAR NORTHEAST ALABAMA
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOONS.
- LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING
LATE TUESDAY, THEN MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RETURN LATE TUESDAY, WITH MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES
FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 152 AM CDT SUN MAY 17 2026
NO MAJOR UPDATES FROM THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER (SPC) DID CLIP A SMALL PORTION OF NE AL WITH A
MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5), HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IN STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS REMAINS LOW (AS WELL AS CONFIDENCE IN RAINFALL
OCCURRING IN GENERAL). POPS REMAIN CAPPED AT 10-15% IN PORTIONS OF
DEKALB AND JACKSON COUNTIES. IF A THUNDERSTORM IS REALIZED DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS TODAY, IT WILL LIKELY
REMAIN SUB SEVERE AS SHEAR CONTINUES TO BE MINIMAL. OTHERWISE,
HIGHS ARE STILL ON TRACK TO REACH THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
LATE EVENING ANALYSIS INDICATES MOSTLY MID/HIGH CLOUDINESS OVER
NORTH/EAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA WITH LARGELY CLEAR SKY CONDITIONS
ELSEWHERE. ALTHOUGH, THERE HAS BEEN A TENDENCY FOR SOME INCREASED
HIGH CLOUDINESS SPREADING SOUTHWARD PER NT MICROPHYSICS IMAGERY.
REGIONAL RADARS HAVE CONTINUED TO SHOW VERY LGT RETURNS ALOFT,
INDICATIVE OF THE VIRGA, AS THIS PRECIP IS FALLING INTO A LAYER OF
VERY DRY AIR. DEWPOINT TEMPS ARE A BIT ELEVATED ABOVE THE BROADER
GUIDANCE SUITE, BUT ARE EXPECTED TO FALL A LITTLE OVERNIGHT. FOG
DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT SHOULD BE KEPT TO A MINIMUM EXCEPT PERHAPS
SOME LIGHT FOG IN THE USUAL VALLEY LOCATIONS, BUT CONFIDENCE IN
DEVELOPMENT IS TOO LOW TO MENTION OTHERWISE IN THE FORECAST.
FOR SUNDAY, A DEEPLY STACKED SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE WILL EXPAND
WESTWARD INTO THE SOUTHEAST CONUS WITH HEIGHTS BUILDING AND WARM
AIR ADVECTION INCREASING ACROSS THE REGION. A PLUME OF MOISTURE ON
THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD NORTHWARD
ACROSS FL AND GA. THIS COMBINED WITH A SLIGHT ENHANCEMENT OF LOW-
LEVEL CONFLUENCE SHOULD HELP TO TRIGGER AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, WITH AN AXIS PRIMARILY OVER GA. HOWEVER, DUE TO ITS
CLOSE PROXIMITY, A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS COULD MAKE THEIR WAY INTO NE
ALABAMA DURING THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN THERMO PROFILES,
SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD CONTAIN SOME STRONG UPDRAFTS GIVEN THE
POTENTIAL FOR CAPES TO REACH ~1500 J/KG. GIVEN DRIER AIR ALOFT,
LACK OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR (< ~20 KTS), AND OTHERWISE WEAK FORCING,
ANY CELLS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LARGELY PULSE-LIKE IN NATURE AND
RELATIVELY SMALL. OTHERWISE, IN THE INCREASINGLY WARM AIRMASS,
HIGHS AND FEELS-LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL LARGELY BE IN THE UPPER
80S TO LOWER 90S.
SHORT TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1045 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2026
FAIRLY SIMILAR CONDITIONS WILL EXIST FOR MONDAY (AS COMPARED TO
SUNDAY) WITH ANOTHER PLUME OF MOISTURE PUSHING JUST INTO NE
PORTIONS OF THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. SLIGHT CHANCES FOR A
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM WILL ONCE AGAIN EXIST FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON,
BUT PERHAPS WITH AN EVEN WEAKER INSTABILITY/SHEAR PROFILE. THUS,
GENERAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WOULD BE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN. HIGHS
LIKEWISE ARE LIKELY TO BE IN THE UPR 80S/LOWER 90S, ALTHOUGH
INCREASED HUMIDITY WILL MAKE HEAT INDICES JUST A LITTLE WARMER
THAN SUNDAY.
THE BROAD SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS INTERIOR AREAS
OF THE SOUTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC COASTAL PLAIN AS AN UPSTREAM TROUGH
LEADS TO AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPR RIDGE. THE RIDGE WILL ACT
INITIALLY ON TUESDAY AS A BUTTRESS AGAINST AN APPROACHING TROUGH
FROM THE PLAINS/MOUNTAIN WEST. ENHANCED FORCING ALONG THE
TROUGH/RIDGE INTERFACE WILL PROBABLY MAKE ITS WAY EASTWARD INTO
THE TN VALLEY BY LATER ON TUESDAY AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ESPECIALLY IN NW PORTIONS OF THE AREA. A
CONTINUED LACK OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL
TEND TO ALLOW ONLY FOR GENERAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1045 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2026
UPPER LEVEL ZONAL FLOW ON WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO EVENTUALLY TURN INTO
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH LATE WEEK. IN ADDITION, A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES ARE SHOWN BY GUIDANCE TO MOVE ALONG THIS FLOW PATTERN OVER
THE SOUTHEAST FROM MID TO LATE WEEK. MEANWHILE, A SURFACE COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY, PASSING JUST TO OUR
SOUTH BY THURSDAY, THEN STALL OVER THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH SATURDAY.
OVERALL, EXPECT A WET PATTERN FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY!
LOOKING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR STORMS, WHILE INSTABILITY IS SUFFICIENT
FOR DEVELOPMENT, BULK SHEAR VALUES (PARTICULARLY ON WEDNESDAY) ARE
LOW. VALUES ON WEDNESDAY ARE GENERALLY AROUND 10 KTS OR LESS.
GUIDANCE THEN SUGGESTS BULK SHEAR VALUES WILL BE LESS THAN 30 KNOTS
THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. THEREFORE, NOT ANTICIPATING SEVERE STORMS AT
THIS TIME.
EVEN WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY SEVERE WEATHER,
MODEL PWATS ON WEDNESDAY GENERALLY RANGE BETWEEN 1.6-1.8 INCHES BY
WEDNESDAY AND THIS LOOKS TO PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND. WHEN COMPARED
WITH BMX SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY (IN THE AFTERNOON), THIS RANGE IS OVER
THE 90TH PERCENTILE. THEREFORE, SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE EFFICIENT
RAINFALL PRODUCERS. IN ADDITION, MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW LOW CORFIDI
DOWNSHEAR VALUES ON WEDNESDAY, INDICATIVE OF SLOW-MOVING
SHOWERS/STORMS AS WELL AS THE POTENTIAL FOR BACKBUILDING/TRAINING
STORMS (INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FLOOD THREAT). FURTHERMORE, WITH
SEVERAL DAYS OF ELEVATED MOISTURE AND MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES OF
SHOWERS/STORMS, WE'LL NEED TO CONTINUE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE
POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING BY LATE WEEK, ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS THAT
SEE CONSISTENT AND HEAVIER RAINFALL DURING THIS TIME. IT HAS BEEN
FAIRLY DRY RECENTLY, BUT PLEASE REMEMBER FLOOD SAFETY NEXT WEEK! IF
YOU ENCOUNTER FLOODED ROADS: TURN AROUND DON'T DROWN!
AS FOR TEMPERATURES, THESE WILL BE TEMPERED A BIT BY THE HIGHER RAIN
CHANCES (ESPECIALLY THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY), WITH HIGHS GENERALLY
IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S EACH DAY AND LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID
60S EACH NIGHT.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS ON SUNDAY, BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS UP TO 15-18 KTS
ARE FORECAST. THESE WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE BY THE LATE EVENING.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...HC
SHORT TERM....KDW
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...HC
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page