588
FXUS64 KHUN 211104
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
604 AM CDT SUN JUN 21 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1235 AM CDT SAT JUN 21 2026
- A DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES
IN NORTHERN ALABAMA (MADISON, LIMESTONE, LAWRENCE, AND MORGAN)
AND FOR LINCOLN AND MOORE COUNTIES IN TENNESSEE UNTIL 9 AM CDT.
- LOW CHANCES (30% OR LESS) OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORECAST THIS EVENING BEFORE RAIN CHANCES INCREASE TO BETWEEN
30-70% AFTER MIDNIGHT.
- MEDIUM-HIGH CHANCES (60-90%) OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST
MONDAY AND TUESDAY - PEAKING DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A FEW
STORMS HAVE A LOW CHANCE OF BECOMING SEVERE ON MONDAY, WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING BEING THE MAIN
CONCERNS
- LOW-MEDIUM CHANCES (40% OR LESS) FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY, BUT STORM COVERAGE ACROSS
OUR REGION WILL DEPEND ON THE LOCATION OF A WEAK STATIONARY
FRONT
NEAR TERM
(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 549 AM CDT SUN JUN 21 2026
WHERE CLEARING LASTED THE LONGEST OVERNIGHT AND WHERE MAINLY HIGH
CLOUDS HAVE FILLED IN SINCE, DENSE FOG HAS FORMED OVER THE LAST
FEW HOURS. THIS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN PLACE UNTIL CLOSER TO 9 AM
BEFORE LIFTING. THIS HAS IMPACTED THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES
PRIMARILY: MADISON (AL), LIMESTONE (AL), LAWRENCE (AL), MORGAN
(AL), LINCOLN (TN), AND MOORE (TN). THUS, A DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR THOSE COUNTIES.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BACK OFF ON RAIN OR STORMS FORMING OVER
NORTHERN ALABAMA TODAY. THEY CONTINUE TO FOCUS PRECIPITATION ALONG
A MORE DISTINCT AREA OF CONVERGENCE OVER SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA
EXTENDING INTO SE GEORGIA. WE SHOULD SEE CLOUD COVER BREAK UP
TOWARDS NOON. SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP PUSH HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE
85 TO 90 DEGREE RANGE. IT WILL BE VERY HUMID PUSHING HEAT INDEX
VALUES INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S IN A FEW LOCATIONS, SO IF
WORKING OUTSIDE GIVE YOURSELF PLENTY OF BREAKS AND STAY HYDRATED.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 958 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2026
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE LATE THIS EVENING INTO MONDAY MORNING
(30-70%) AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE SHIFTS EAST INTO THE AREA
ONCE AGAIN. SIMULTANEOUSLY, AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT STEMMING
FROM LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OH RIVER VALLEY WILL FORCE
HIGH CHANCES (70-90%) OF THUNDERSTORMS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE PWATS REACHING AROUND 1.9-2.2", WHICH IS ABOVE
THE 90TH PERCENTILE PER BMX AND OHX SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY.
THEREFORE, THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS.
ADDITIONALLY, CORFIDI UPSHEAR VALUES INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR
BACKBUILDING/TRAINING OF RELATIVELY SLOW MOVING STORMS, INCREASING
THE OVERALL FLASH FLOOD THREAT. THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER HAS
OUTLOOKED OUR AREA IN A SLIGHT (RISK LEVEL 2 OF 4) OUTLOOK FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. A
SECONDARY THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AS BOTH INSTABILITY AS
WELL AS SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SOME ORGANIZED CONVECTION. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS OUTLOOKED THE ENTIRE TENNESSEE VALLEY IN A
MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER. BE SURE TO HAVE
MULTIPLE WAYS TO GET WARNINGS MONDAY AS MULTIPLE THREATS ARE ON
THE TABLE. ANOTHER HEAT THREAT ALSO EXISTS MONDAY AFTERNOON AS
HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE UPPER 80S ONCE AGAIN WITH HEAT
INDICES IN THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100, HOWEVER, WE WILL BE
MONITORING HOW THUNDERSTORMS AND SUBSEQUENT CLOUD COVER AFFECTS
THESE TEMPERATURES AS THEY WILL LIKELY BE COOLER THAN CURRENTLY
FORECAST. WHILE RAIN CHANCES DECREASE OVERNIGHT, MEDIUM RAIN
CHANCES (40-60%) RETURN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS A BOUNDARY STALLS TO
OUR SOUTH. THIS WILL CONTINUE A LOW FLOODING THREAT IN NW AL,
WHERE THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER CURRENTLY HAS US OUTLOOKED IN
A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 4) FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. WE
ENCOURAGE EVERYONE WITH PLANS EARLY IN THE WEEK TO REMAIN WEATHER
AWARE AND CHECK BACK IN FOR UPDATES.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 958 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2026
FOR THE FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD
(WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY), OUR FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN BENEATH A LIGHT
(10-20 KNOT) NW FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN A STRONG SUBTROPICAL HIGH CENTERED
ACROSS SOUTHERN AZ/SOUTHERN NM/NORTHERN MEXICO AND AN AMPLIFYING
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE GREAT
LAKES. IN THE LOW-LEVELS, HIGH PRESSURE (INITIALLY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS) WILL SHIFT QUICKLY EASTWARD OFF THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST AS A SLOW-MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DRIFTS
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY/GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL YIELD
LIGHT SSW RETURN FLOW ACROSS OUR REGION (PERHAPS AS EARLY AS
WEDNESDAY, BUT MORE LIKELY BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT) WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE
TO AN INCREASE IN THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN.
PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT STORM COVERAGE WILL REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH
ON THURSDAY TO THE SOUTH OF A WEAK COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTHWESTWARD
OFF THE LOW TO OUR NORTH, BUT DEEP-LAYER FLOW AND SHEAR APPEAR TOO
WEAK TO WARRANT CONCERN FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION. NEVERTHELESS, A
MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS FEATURING PWAT VALUES OF 1.6-1.8" AND CAPE OF
1500-2500 J/KG COULD RESULT IN A RISK FOR STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS.
DURING THE TIMEFRAME FROM FRIDAY-SATURDAY, GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST
THAT THE MID-LEVEL HIGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN DESERTS WILL BEGIN TO
WEAKEN AS THE CENTRAL NORTH ATLANTIC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE STRENGTHENS
AND RETROGRADES WESTWARD ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA AND INTO THE EASTERN
GULF. WITH OUR REGION LIKELY TO BECOME INCREASINGLY INFLUENCED BY
MINOR HEIGHT RISES ALOFT AND DRYING PROFILES, WE EXPECT THE COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY (ALTHOUGH WITH A LINGERING FRONT/CONVERGENCE AXIS LIKELY TO
LIE SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF THE TN VALLEY, RAIN CHANCES WILL
CERTAINLY BE NON-ZERO). HIGHS WILL PROGRESSIVELY WARM FROM THE L-M
80S INTO THE M-U 80S BY SATURDAY, AS OVERNIGHT LOWS RISE FROM THE M-U
60S INTO THE U60S-L70S.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 543 AM CDT SUN JUN 21 2026
THICKER CLOUD COVER IS IN PLACE OVER KMSL SINCE VSBYS IMPROVED
OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. HOWEVER, CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF DROP TO
MVFR VSBYS THROUGH 14Z. LOWER VSBYS DUE TO FOG DEVELOPMENT ARE
EXPECTED AT KHSV THROUGH 14Z. PREDOMINANT MVFR VSBYS WITH A TEMPO
FOR 3/4SM WERE INCLUDED AT THAT TERMINAL. EXPECT FOG TO LIFT AND
MVFR CIGS TO LINGER AFTER 14Z. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO
BOTH TERMINALS BY 16Z OR 17Z. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS BETWEEN 5 AND 10
KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 15 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED. SOME -SHRA COULD
IMPACT EITHER TERMINAL AROUND 5Z OR 6Z, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW SO
ONLY A PROB30 GROUP WAS INCLUDED FOR THIS ACTIVITY.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR ALZ004>007.
TN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR TNZ076-096.
NEAR TERM...KTW
SHORT TERM....HC
LONG TERM....70
AVIATION...KTW
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page