635
FXUS64 KHUN 030030
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
630 PM CST MON FEB 2 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1014 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2026
- MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES OF RAIN ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
- DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM
(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CST MON FEB 2 2026
COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THAT BROUGHT CHILLY CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THIS PAST WEEKEND WAS NOW OVER FLORIDA. WHILE
THE COLDEST AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS HIGH WAS IMPACTING AREAS WELL
TO OUR SOUTH, SOME MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES WAS OCCURRING ACROSS
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. 2 PM TEMPERATURES LOCALLY HAVE RISEN FROM
THE MID 40S MIDDLE TENNESSEE TO LOW/MID 50S NORTHERN ALABAMA UNDER
SUNNY SKIES. HIGHS MAY INCH UP ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO, BEFORE
COOLING TONIGHT AND BOTTOMING OUT IN THE LOW/MID 30S.
A DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW, ESPECIALLY ACROSS TEXAS WILL UPGLIDE (BEST
SEEN AROUND 295K) AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MORE TO THE WEST. THIS UPGLIDE WILL PRODUCE SHOWER ACTIVITY
ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS TONIGHT, WITH THE PRECIPITATION
SPREADING EASTWARD AS WE GO INTO THE LATE NIGHT. NEW MODEL
GUIDANCE WAS TRENDING EVEN SLOWER THAN BEFORE, WITH THE PRECIP NOT
REACHING THE AREA UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK TUESDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1014 AM CST MON FEB 2 2026
THE AFORMENTIONED SHOWERS SHOULD REACH THE FORECAST AREA A COUPLE
OF HOURS AFTER DAYBREAK. GIVEN A LATER START OF THE SHOWERS, WILL
MAINTAIN AN ALL LIQUID PHASE OF PRECIPITATION. DESPITE THE CLOUDS
AND GOOD RAIN CHANCES, HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE INTO THE
LOW/MID 50S. ALTHOUGH MODEST TO STRONG SHEAR WILL ACCOMPANY THE
SHOWERS, INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO REMAIN VERY LOW, THUS NO
THUNDER IS EXPECTED. THE NEW BLENDS HAVE COME IN WETTER THAN
PREVIOUS RUNS, WITH TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AROUND 1/2", UP FROM
AROUND 1/3". THIS SHOULD HELP ALLEVIATE A LONG-TERM DRY SPELL
THAT THE AREA HAS BEEN IN.
A COLD FRONT WITH THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE IN A WNW-ESE
MANNER ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY EVENING, WITH SHOWERS ENDING
LIKEWISE. THE COLDEST AIR WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL WELL AFTER THE
SHOWERS HAVE ENDED, THUS NO WINTRY PRECIP IS EXPECTED. LOWS TUE
NIGHT SHOULD RANGE IN THE LOW/MID 30S. POST FRONTAL CLOUDS LOOK TO
PERSIST AFTER THE FRONT PASSES AND COLDER AIR FILTERS IN. WITH
WINTER-LIKE TEMPERATURES RETURNING, HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY
WILL ONLY RISE INTO THE LOW/MID 40S, WITH NW WINDS OF 5-15 MPH.
COLDER WED NIGHT WITH LOWS AROUND 20 DEGREES.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 801 PM CST SUN FEB 1 2026
AFTER THE TROUGH AND FRONT THAT BRINGS RAIN ON WEDNESDAY SHIFTS
SOUTHEAST, DEEP LAYER NORTHWEST FLOW WILL FOLLOW LATE THIS WEEK INTO
NEXT WEEKEND WITH A RIDGE POSITION IN THE ROCKIES SHIFTING INTO
PLAINS STATES. ALTHOUGH NO BITTERLY COLD AIR IS EXPECTED, A ROLLER
COASTER OF TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR, WITH INTERVALS OF MODERATE
WARMING AND COOLING. AFTER HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S
THURSDAY, READINGS REACH THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S FRIDAY, THEN DROP
BACK INTO THE 40S TO AROUND 50 SATURDAY. THEN ITS BACK INTO THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 50S SUNDAY. WITH A CONTINENTAL AIRMASS AND DRY AIR,
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL DIP BELOW FREEZING EACH MORNING THROUGH
SUNDAY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 630 PM CST MON FEB 2 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT THE HSV/MSL TERMINALS
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, ALTHOUGH A NOTABLE INCREASE IN THE
COVERAGE OF HIGH-LVL CS IS ANTICIPATED WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2 HRS
BEFORE TRANSITIONING INTO AN OVERCAST LAYER PRIOR TO 12Z. CURRENT
THINKING IS THAT THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING CLOUDS ALOFT AND A
LGT BUT PERSISTENT SSW WIND WILL INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY
FZBR/FZFG INVOF THE AIRPORTS, BUT THIS COULD CERTAINLY OCCUR IN
WIND-PROTECTED VALLEYS. SSW FLOW WILL INCREASE TO 8G16 KTS AND
CLOUD BASES WILL BEGIN TO DESCEND MORE RAPIDLY FROM W-TO-E BTWN
12-18Z, AS LGT SHRA OVERSPREAD THE REGION AHEAD OF A DECAYING AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. PRECIPITATION
INTENSITY WILL INCREASE BY EARLY AFTN (19Z/MSL AND 20Z/HSV), WITH
MVFR VSBY REDUCTIONS AND IFR CIGS NOTED THRU THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...RSB
SHORT TERM...RSB
LONG TERM...17
AVIATION...70/DD
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