263
FXUS64 KHUN 071843
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
143 PM CDT THU AUG 7 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 142 PM CDT THU AUG 7 2025
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF TENNESSEE. SHEAR REMAINS VERY WEAK. WITH MORE
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE TODAY, BETTER INSTABILITY IS PRESENT IN THE
ATMOSPHERE TO TAP INTO THIS AFTERNOON. SBCAPE IN ANALYSIS SHOWS
2500 TO 3500 J/KG IN PLACE. DECENT LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7.0
TO 7.5 DEGREES/KM ARE ALSO IN PLACE WITH DCAPE VALUES OVER 1000
J/KG.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP SOUTHWARD THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING. A FEW STRONG STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLY
LATER THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN PARAMETERS IN PLACE, BUT NO ORGANIZED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED.
A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS COULD LINGER THROUGH 7 OR 8 PM BEFORE
DISSIPATING. EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO QUICKLY DISSIPATE LATER THIS
EVENING. THIS CLEARING AND CONTINUING LIGHT WINDS WILL LIKELY
ALLOW A BIT MORE FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE
I-65 CORRIDOR.
SHORT TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 142 PM CDT THU AUG 7 2025
MODELS CONTINUE TO MOVE THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS FURTHER EAST
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BECOMES STRONGER OVER
THE REGION. THIS SHOULD PUSH MOST OF THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION
FURTHER EAST AND OUT OF THE AREA. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL
LIKELY BE IN EXTREME EASTERN ALABAMA, WHERE A FEW STORMS OR
SHOWERS COULD OCCUR FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS SHOULD CONTINUE THE TREND OF MORE SUNSHINE DURING THE DAY
OVER NORTHERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE BOTH DAYS.
EXPECT IT TO REMAIN VERY WARM AS HIGHS CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S
TO AROUND 94 DEGREES ON FRIDAY. SOME HIGHS ON SATURDAY COULD REACH
95 DEGREES OR SO IN NW ALABAMA. HEAT INDEX VALUES DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS A RESULT WILL LIKELY CLIMB TO AROUND OR JUST ABOVE
100 DEGREES. NOT SURE WE WILL SEE FOG DEVELOPMENT FRIDAY NIGHT.
LOWS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.
BY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, MODELS CONTINUE TO PULL A WEAK
CLOSED LOW OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST EAST NORTHEAST. THIS PULLS A
WEAK FRONT NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ALABAMA OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. NOT EXPECTING MUCH CHANGE IN LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT (STILL DROPPING INTO THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S). FOG
DEVELOPMENT MAY BECOME A TAD MORE FAVORABLE THOUGH. THIS BOUNDARY
JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA SHOULD INCREASE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES AGAIN (20-30%) DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER AND CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SHOULD HELP TO KEEP HIGHS FROM
GETTING OUT OF CONTROL. HIGHS SHOULD STILL REACH THE UPPER 80 TO
LOWER 90S.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 142 PM CDT THU AUG 7 2025
SUNDAY AFTERNOON'S ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE DURING THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS. FOG SHOULD BE A BETTER POSSIBILITY LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WHEN YOU WAKE UP SHOULD BE
TRENDING WARMER AS WELL, ONLY DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LOOK TO INCREASE MORE EARLY NEXT
WEEK, AS THE WEAK FRONT MOVES FURTHER NORTHWARD. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE INCREASE TO BETWEEN 30
AND 50%. SHEAR REMAINS VERY WEAK, BUT DCAPE VALUES AND INSTABILITY
DOES INCREASE. THUS, A FEW STRONGER STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE.
OVERALL DAYTIME HIGHS SHOULD BE TEMPERED BY CLOUD COVER AND
CONVECTION. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO AROUND 91 DEGREES LOOK FAIRLY
REASONABLE.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1221 PM CDT THU AUG 7 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD. THE
EXCEPTION TO THAT WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON. BASED ON EXPECTED
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON, A VCTS WAS INCLUDED AT
KHSV FROM THE START OF THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. A PROB30 WAS INCLUDED
AT THIS TERMINAL FOR -TSRA AND MVFR VSBYS/CIGS BETWEEN 20 AND 24Z.
CONFIDENCE IN CONVECTION IMPACTING THE TERMINAL IS LESS AT KMSL.
THUS, ONLY INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP TO BKN MVFR CIGS BETWEEN 20Z
AND 24Z. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN AT BOTH TERMINALS AT 08/01Z.
VSBY REDUCTIONS DUE TO FOG WERE LEFT OUT FOR NOW AT THE
TERMINALS, BUT MAY NEED TO BE ADDED OVERNIGHT IN LATER ISSUANCES
(ESPECIALLY AT KHSV).
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...KTW
SHORT TERM....KTW
LONG TERM....KTW
AVIATION...KTW
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