937
FXUS64 KHUN 140239
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
939 PM CDT THU MAR 13 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
NEAR TERM
(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 757 PM CDT THU MAR 13 2025
CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTH CENTRAL AL CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
DRIFT SOUTHEAST, ALTHOUGH A FEW CELLS CONTINUE TO POP UP FURTHER
NORTH MORE RANDOMLY. MORE PULSE-LIKE CONVECTION IN SOUTHERN MIDDLE
TN SHOULD ALSO TEND TO WANE OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. AN UPPER
RIDGE AT 5H WILL SHIFT INTO THE TN VALLEY LATE TONIGHT AS SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST FLOW IN LOW LEVELS BEGINS TO REESTABLISH. THIS WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS MILD WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S.
SHORT TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 938 PM CDT THU MAR 13 2025
A WARM AND BREEZY DAY IS AHEAD FRIDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES
IN RESPONSE TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. THE WELL-ADVERTISED
CYCLOGENESIS IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BE FULLY UNDERWAY WITH A
975ISH LOW EMERGING IN NEBRASKA. A WELL-DEFINED DRY LINE WILL
PUSH INTO WESTERN AR AND EAST TX BY LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
CENTRAL AND LOWER MS VALLEY BY EVENING AS THE LOW MOVES INTO IA.
SEVERE STORMS WILL LINE UP ALONG THE DRY LINE/DRY SLOT AS FAR
SOUTH AS THE MID SOUTH FRIDAY EVENING. THE EML/CAPPING INVERSION
WILL BE A FEATURE WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS IT SPREADS INTO
THE REGION. THE BIG QUESTION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY IS
WILL THIS PUT A LID ON SURFACE BASED SUPERCELLULAR DEVELOPMENT OR
NOT. AT THIS POINT, CONFIDENCE REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN ON THIS
GIVEN CAMS, ESPECIALLY GIVEN WEAKENING QG FORCING. WILL HAVE TO
SEE WHAT THE NEWER CAMS SHOW TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW, BUT FROM
EARLIER RUNS, IT APPEARS THAT THE CONVECTION INITIALLY MAY BE
FORMING ABOVE THE CAP. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE SHEAR
AND INSTABILITY PARAMETERS, SUPERCELLS WOULD BE THE FAVORED STORM
TYPE.
ONE THING IS MORE CERTAIN, CONVECTION WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
SATURDAY MORNING INTO THE MIDDAY HOURS ACROSS NORTHERN MS INTO
NORTH AL AND TN AS THE NEXT WAVE STARTS TO AMPLIFY UVVS AND DEEPER
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE UNDERRUNS THE CAPPING INVERSION LEADING TO
RAPID DEVELOPMENT AND EXPANSION OF STORMS. AGAIN, ALL MODES OF
SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE LIKELY, INCLUDING TORNADOES. THE MODELS
INDICATE SOME POTENTIAL FOR A BREAK DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE
MORNING ACTIVITY LIFTS RAPIDLY NORTHWARD AND THE NEXT JET MAX
ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. GIVEN EVEN
MODEST HEATING IN ADVANCE OF THIS, ADDITIONAL SUPERCELLS WILL
DEVELOP IN WESTERN TN THROUGH MS THAT WILL RAPIDLY MOVE NORTHEAST
INTO AL AND MIDDLE TN DURING THE EVENING HOURS. AGAIN, PARAMETERS
ARE ALL FAVORABLE FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS. THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS THE SUPERCELLS MAY BE MORE EMBEDDED WITHIN AN INTENSE
QLCS OVER TN INTO NORTHWEST AL, WITH MORE ISOLATED SUPERCELLS
FURTHER SOUTH IN AL. IN EITHER CASE, THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER IS
HEIGHTENED WITH INTENSE SHEAR DUE TO THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET
SATURDAY EVENING. THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHIFT EAST
DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS, LIKELY EXITING OUR EASTERN COUNTIES
FROM 06-09Z. HEAVY AND POSSIBLY EXCESSIVE RAIN DUE TO ECHO
TRAINING REMAINS A CONCERN, SO WE WILL MONITOR THIS CLOSELY.
COOLER NORTH FLOW WILL ARRIVE BEHIND THE SYSTEM ON SUNDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S AND CHILLY OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
30S.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 938 PM CDT THU MAR 13 2025
A DRY START IS FORECAST TO START THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SEVERE WEATHER FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE POSITIONED ALONG THE EAST COAST. AS IT
CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST, AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PATTERN TAKES SHAPE
OVER MUCH OF THE CONUS. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SIT JUST TO OUR
WEST ON MONDAY ALLOWING FOR NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. THIS WILL KEEP
SKIES CLEAR WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE MID 60S
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE CENTER SHIFTS FURTHER TO THE EAST,
THIS WILL BRING BACK SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW RESULTING IN A WARMING
TREND HEADING INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. FORECAST HIGHS RETURN
TO THE LOW TO MID 70S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE THURSDAY AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH DIGS DOWN ACROSS THE ROCKIES. A SFC LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP
OVER THE PLAINS WITH A COLD FRONT DRAPED SOUTHWARD INTO OK/TX. THE
COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THURSDAY BRINGING AREA
WIDE SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. INSTABILITY AND
SHEAR LOOK MEAGER THIS FAR OUT SO SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 525 PM CDT THU MAR 13 2025
A CLUSTER OF SHRA AND TSRA IN NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST AL WILL
SHIFT SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA WHILE WEAKENING. WILL CARRY LINGERING
VCSH AT KHSV THROUGH 01Z. THE, VFR FLIGHT WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED THROUGH 12-14Z WHEN LOWER CEILING OF 020-025AGL (MVFR)
DEVELOP. THESE CEILINGS SHOULD TEND TO DISSIPATE BY 18Z WITH
A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS. SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FLOW WILL
INCREASED MARKEDLY AFTER 14Z WITH GUSTS OF 23-27KT EXPECTED BY
18Z.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...17
SHORT TERM....17
LONG TERM....GH
AVIATION...17
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