808  
FXUS64 KHUN 280341  
AFDHUN  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL  
1041 PM CDT WED OCT 27 2021  
   
UPDATE
 
 
FOR 06Z TAFS.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM
 
(TONIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 854 PM CDT WED OCT 27 2021  
 
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED OVER WESTERN AR AND EASTERN OK WILL  
CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD TONIGHT. AHEAD OF IT, A COLD FRONT  
STRETCHING ALONG THE MS/AL STATE LINE FROM THE GULF COAST NORTHWARD  
TOWARDS THE AL/TN STATE LINE. SFC OBS SHOW A WARM FRONT IN SOUTHWEST  
AL THAT HAS KEPT THE WARMER AND MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS WELL TO OUR  
SOUTH THIS EVENING. RAIN AS OF 02Z IS ABOUT TO ENTER THE CWA, BUT IT  
MAY STRUGGLE AS IT MOVES EASTWARD GIVEN DEWPOINTS STILL IN THE MID  
40S ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS AND  
LATEST CAM GUIDANCE, WHICH SHOWS THE BAND OF RAIN WEAKENING ACROSS  
NORTHERN AL, HAVE OPTED TO REMOVE THUNDER FROM THE FORECAST TONIGHT.  
 
AS THE AFORMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM GETS CLOSER TO THE AREA  
LATER TONIGHT, GRADIENT WINDS INCREASE CONSIDERABLY. NO CHANGES WERE  
MADE TO THE WIND ADVISORY THAT GOES INTO EFFECT AT 03Z. WINDS SHOULD  
INCREASE OVERNIGHT BEFORE PEAKING AROUND DAYBREAK. EXPECT PEAK WIND  
GUSTS 35-40 MPH.  
   
SHORT TERM
 
(THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)  
ISSUED AT 145 PM CDT WED OCT 27 2021  
 
THE INITIAL BAND OF SHOWERS WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST OF THE AREA BEFORE  
DAYBREAK, WITH A SECOND BAND LIKELY TO DEVELOP AT THE RIM OF THE DRY  
SLOT/OCCLUDED FRONT. THIS BAND IS EXPECTED TO EXIT OUR NORTHEAST  
COUNTIES BY 18Z, WITH A WIND SHIFT AND DECREASE IN WIND SPEEDS BEHIND  
THE OCCLUDED FRONT. THE UPPER LOW WILL BECOME STACKED NEAR OR AROUND  
THE MO BOOTHEEL THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STRONG COLD AIR  
ADVECTION AND ADDITIONAL SPOKES OF VORTICITY WILL BRING PATCHES OF  
SHOWERS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. IN FACT, THE COLDEST  
POCKET OF AIR AT 850 MB WILL ROTATE SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL AND  
SOUTHERN AL. AS A RESULT, TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEARLY STEADY IN  
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S ON FRIDAY.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 145 PM CDT WED OCT 27 2021  
 
TWO LAST SPOKES OF VORTICITY/SHORTWAVES DROP SOUTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT  
INTO EARLY SATURDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME LESS PERSISTENT  
SATURDAY AFTERNOON, AND ENDING BY EVENING. IF THE LOWER CLOUDS CAN  
HANG ON THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, LOWS WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER  
40S. HOWEVER, IF CLEARING CAN TAKE PLACE, WE MAY NEED TO LOWER FUTURE  
UPDATED TEMPERATURES.  
 
A RAPID TRANSITION TO MORE ZONAL FLOW WILL TAKE PLACE ACROSS THE  
LOWER CONUS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH MODIFYING TEMPERATURES.  
HIGHS SHOULD BE BACK IN THE 60S THOSE DAYS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY  
DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, BUT  
THERE REMAINS CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT ON THIS AND CORRESPONDING  
RAIN CHANCES.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 1040 PM CDT WED OCT 27 2021  
 
FLYING CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO  
TOMORROW AS A FRONT SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA. RAIN AT THE ONSET OF THE  
FORECAST PERIOD WILL SLOWLY DROP CEILINGS, BUT SHOULD REMAIN VFR  
UNTIL A MORE WELL DEFINED LINE OF SHOWERS MOVES THROUGH THE TERMINALS  
CLOSER TO DAYBREAK. BIGGEST CONCERN OVERNIGHT IS WINDS AND LOW LEVEL WIND  
SHEAR INCREASING. CLOSER TO DAYBREAK, CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES DROP  
DOWN TO MVFR AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  
SOME MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS IFR CEILINGS TOMORROW MORNING, BUT LEFT  
OUT FOR NOW DO TO LOW CONFIDENCE.  
 

 
   
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
AL...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR ALZ001>010-016.  
 
TN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR TNZ076-096-097.  
 

 
 

 
 
NEAR TERM...GH  
SHORT TERM...17  
LONG TERM...17  
AVIATION...GH  
 
FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE  
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.  
 
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