396  
FXUS64 KHUN 161128  
AFDHUN  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL  
628 AM CDT WED OCT 16 2019  
   
UPDATE
 
 
FOR 12Z TAFS.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM
 
(TODAY)  
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT WED OCT 16 2019  
 
A STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PROGRESS SOUTHEAST  
INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. ALONG AND JUST  
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE, A BROAD AREA OF LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO  
FILTER INTO THE AREA -- POTENTIALLY GIVING SOME AREAS UP TO 0.2" OF  
RAINFALL THROUGH 12Z. DUE TO THE LACK OF INSTABILITY, THUNDER  
ACTIVITY WANED ACROSS WEST TENNESSEE HOURS AGO, AND FOR THIS REASON  
HAVE REMOVED A MENTION OF IT FROM THE FORECAST. JUST AHEAD OF THE  
FRONT, TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S, BUT WOULD EXPECT  
THESE READINGS TO BE 5-10 DEGREES COOLER BY DAYBREAK AS A COOLER,  
DRIER AIR MASS FILTERS INTO THE REGION. THE RESULT WILL BE COLD AIR  
ADVECTION OCCURRING THROUGHOUT THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS, THANKS  
TO A STOUT NORTHWEST FLOW. BY 15-18Z, DRIER AIR WILL QUICKLY MOVE IN  
AND SCOUR OUT THE DECKS OF LOW STRATUS LINGERING IN PLACE. DESPITE A  
MOSTLY SUNNY AFTERNOON, EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO RUN ABOUT 10  
DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S THANKS TO THE  
AFOREMENTIONED AIR MASS MOVING INTO THE AREA. GUSTY WINDS IN THE  
10-20 MPH RANGE WILL MAKE IT FEEL A FEW DEGREES COOLER, AT TIMES.  
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)  
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT WED OCT 16 2019  
 
A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD INTO THE REGION,  
PROMOTING TRANQUIL WEATHER FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WINDS WILL BEGIN  
TO RELAX AFTER SUNSET, WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING  
AS TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY FALL INTO THE 40S AND 50S AFTER SUNSET.  
THANKS TO THE DRY AIR IN PLACE, EXPECT LOWS TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE  
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S BY EARLY THURSDAY. THIS COULD RESULT IN A FEW  
LOCALIZED AREAS OF PATCHY FROST ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MIDDLE  
TENNESSEE AND FAR NORTHEAST ALABAMA. HOWEVER, THE DRY AIR AND  
SUBSEQUENTLY HIGHER DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS WILL PREVENT THIS FROM  
BECOMING WIDESPREAD. THUS, A FROST ADVISORY WILL NOT BE NEEDED.  
 
A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AS THE RIDGE BUILDS SOUTH  
INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL REINFORCE THE COOL  
POST FRONTAL AIR MASS, KEEPING HIGHS IN THE 60S ONCE AGAIN. AFTER  
ANOTHER CRISP NIGHT, A WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR BY FRIDAY AS THE  
RIDGE SLIDES EAST OF THE AREA INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THIS  
WILL INDUCE A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AT THE SURFACE, HELPING TO  
ADVECT SOME LIMITED MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION. WITH PLENTY OF  
SUNSHINE, EXPECT WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 70S BY THE  
AFTERNOON. SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGE WILL PREVENT ANY CONVECTION FROM  
FORMING, HOWEVER, AND THUS HAVE MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT WED OCT 16 2019  
 
AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND, A TROUGH WILL SWING INTO THE PLAINS,  
PUSHING THE RIDGE OFF TO OUR EAST. THIS WILL RETURN SOUTHWESTERLY  
WINDS ALOFT AND SOUTHEASTERLY SFC FLOW THAT WILL PUSH DAYTIME HIGHS  
A TAD ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE MID/UPPER 70S AND RETURN MOISTURE TO THE  
REGION. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FEEL MILD INTO THE LOWER 60S. MODELS  
DIFFER IN THE TRACK AND TIMING OF A SHORTWAVE RIDING UP THE BACK OF  
THE RIDGE AND A GULF LOW. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE THE FASTER  
SOLUTION AND THE MOST DETERMINED ONE TO BRING THE SFC LOW NE UP INTO  
AL COMPARED TO THE GFS AND THE CANADIAN. THE GFS IS FAVORING A DRIER  
SOLUTION WITH THE SFC LOW SKIRTING THE COAST. WITH SUCH DISCREPANCY,  
KEPT CLOSE TO THE BLENDS. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD  
DEVELOP BY EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EXPAND IN COVERAGE DURING THE  
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE SYSTEM SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST.  
 
AS A TROUGH DIGS AND DEEPENS ACROSS THE PLAINS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY,  
IT WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT SE INTO THE REGION. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL  
BECOME BREEZY AHEAD OF THE FRONT, PUSHING PWATS OVER 1.5" AND TEMPS  
INTO THE UPPER 70S. MODELS HAVE COME INTO A LITTLE BIT BETTER  
AGREEMENT ON THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT, MOVING IT INTO THE TN VALLEY  
BY MONDAY EVENING/OVERNIGHT. WILL SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS  
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT WITH COVERAGE BECOMING NUMEROUS AS THE  
FRONT SLIDES IN. PRECIP WILL TAPER OFF AS WE HEAD INTO TUESDAY, BUT  
WILL FEEL THE EFFECTS OF THE COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT AS LOWS REACH THE  
LOWER 50S. TUESDAY'S DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER IN  
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND DECREASING CLOUD  
COVER WILL LET TEMPS DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S TUESDAY NIGHT.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)  
ISSUED AT 626 AM CDT WED OCT 16 2019  
 
A COLD FRONT IS QUICKLY MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WHICH HAS PROMPTED  
A WIND SHIFT TO THE NW. WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE THIS MORNING BEHIND  
THE FRONT AND WILL BECOME GUSTY AT TIMES FROM THE LATE MORNING  
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING HAVE CREATED LOW-END  
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS AT BOTH TERMINALS, AND THOUGH -RA HAS  
ESSENTIALLY TAPERED OF HAVE MAINTAINED A MENTION OF IT THROUGH 13Z.  
AFTER 15-16Z, DRY AIR WILL SCOUR OUT THE CLOUDS, RESULTING IN CLEAR  
AND VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.  
 

 
   
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
AL...NONE.  
TN...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
NEAR TERM...AMP.24  
SHORT TERM...AMP.24  
LONG TERM...JMS  
AVIATION...AMP.24  
 
FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE  
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.  
 
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