641
FXUS64 KHUN 200449
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1049 PM CST THU FEB 19 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 949 PM CST THU FEB 19 2026
- MODERATE TO HIGH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
TONIGHT.
- A MARGINAL (LOW) RISK OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH THE PRIMARY HAZARD BEING HAIL.
- A COLDER AIRMASS WILL RETURN TO THE AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH A VERY LOW CHANCE OF
A FEW RAIN SHOWERS SATURDAY EVENING.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TONIGHT AND FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 949 PM CST THU FEB 19 2026
TEMPERATURES AFTER RECORD TIED OR BROKEN HIGHS (77 AT KHSV AND 79
AT KMSL) TODAY HAVE DROPPED INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S AT
THIS HOUR. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SOUTHWEST INTO NW TENNESSEE AND SE
MISSOURI FROM A SURFACE LOW MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
A LARGER AREA OF CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW
ALONG MULTIPLE WARM FRONTS THROUGH ILLINOIS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
INTENSE SHEAR AND HELICITY IS IN PLACE AHEAD OF THIS STORM SYSTEM
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY SOUTHWARDS INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. 6 PM
SOUNDINGS SHOW A BETTER ENVIRONMENT CONCERNING ELEVATED CAPE IN
PLACE OVER NASHVILLE, TN AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THERE IS SOME QUESTION
BASED ON THE BIRMINGHAM, AL 6 PM SOUNDING WHETHER THE ATMOSPHERIC
PROFILE OF ELEVATED CAPE IS AS FAVORABLE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS FURTHER SOUTH.
HOWEVER, DETERMINISTIC MODEL OUTPUT IN SOUNDINGS FROM THE RAP13
INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF 500 TO 800 J/KG OF ELEVATED CAPE MAY
BE IN PLACE AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO AREAS NEAR I-65 AND FURTHER
EAST BETWEEN 9 PM AND 2 AM. VERY GOOD SHEAR IS SHOWN ALONG WITH
STRONG HELICITY. LUCKILY, SOUNDINGS ARE NOT SURFACE BASED THOUGH.
HOWEVER, WET-BULB ZERO VALUES IN RAP13 DO DROP TO BETWEEN 8500 AND
9,500 FEET DURING THAT TIMEFRAME IN SOUNDINGS. GIVEN STRONG LAPSE
RATES BETWEEN 6.5 AND 7.5 DEGREES/KM, SOME LARGE HAIL MAY BE
POSSIBLE IN THIS WINDOW, IF FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT CAN
PUSH THAT FAR EAST BY THEN. AFTER 2 TO 3 AM, ELEVATED CAPE LESSENS
SIGNIFICANTLY AND LAPSE RATES DO AS WELL.
BASED ON CURRENT TRACKING OF THE CONVERGENCE AREA AHEAD OF THE
FRONT, IT LOOKS TO APPROACH NW ALABAMA BETWEEN 1 AM AND 2 AM. SO,
AS LONG AS CONVECTION DOESN'T FIRE WELL AHEAD OF IT, THE WINDOW
FOR ANY SEVERE STORMS WOULD BE VERY MINIMAL AND VERY CONDITIONAL.
DO EXPECT A LINE OF SCATTERED TO MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND LIKELY
SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE THROUGH BETWEEN 2 AM AND 6 AM THOUGH.
AFTER 3 AM, THOUGH CHANCES OF ANY STRONGER STORMS LOOKS EXTREMELY
LOW.
SOME SHOWERS AND MAYBE AN ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM MAY LINGER PAST
DAYBREAK ON FRIDAY BEFORE PUSHING SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA BY 8 OR 9
AM. NOT MUCH REALLY COLD AIR IS UPSTREAM BEHIND THIS FRONT. THE
AIRMASS WILL BE DRIER AND A BIT COOLER THOUGH. TEMPERATURES AFTER
SOME MORNING CLOUD COVER SHOULD CLIMB BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER
60S THOUGH (WARMEST AIR SOUTH OF THE TN RIVER).
SHORT TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 949 PM CST THU FEB 19 2026
LOWS ON FRIDAY NIGHT DESPITE SOME LIGHTER WINDS, WILL NOT COOL
DOWN TOO MUCH AS ANOTHER STRONGER COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHEAST
TOWARDS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS RETURN. LOWS
SHOULD ONLY DROP INTO THE 45 TO 50 DEGREE RANGE PRIMARILY. MEDIUM
TO HIGH PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN AHEAD OF THE FRONT. GOOD
SHEAR IS SHOWN AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM AS WELL. HOWEVER, MOST
INSTABILITY LOOKS LIKE IT REMAINS NEAR AND SOUTH OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA. THAT BEING SAID, A FEW STRONGER STORMS MAYBE PRODUCING
GUSTS WINDS AND SMALL HAIL COULD OCCUR SOUTH OF THE TENNESSEE
RIVER.
THE APPROACHING FRONT WEAKENS TOWARDS DAYBREAK ON SATURDAY AND
STALLS NEAR THE AREA, BEFORE ANOTHER RE-ENFORCING COLD FRONT
PUSHES SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHERN PLAINS REGIONS
TOWARDS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. IT LOOKS
LIKE A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S AGAIN, DESPITE MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
PUSH INTO THE AREA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. MODELS DIFFER ON THE
MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR THIS FRONT TO TAP INTO AHEAD OF IT.
MANY MODELS PRODUCE NO PRECIPITATION OR EXTREMELY LOW CHANCES
(<25%) OF PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF IT DURING THAT PERIOD. ANY
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN IF IT OCCURS.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 949 PM CST THU FEB 19 2026
AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD, SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH
A SECONDARY SYSTEM THAT IMPACTED THE AREA SHOULD BE POSITIONED EAST
OF THE REGION. IT SHOULD CONTINUE ADVANCING FURTHER TO THE EAST, AS
COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. THIS HIGH ORIGINATING FROM
THE ARCTIC FEATURED MAXIMUM PRESSURE OF 1060 MB CORRECTED TO SEA
LEVEL WHICH IS INDICATIVE THAT MUCH COLDER AIR WILL BE HEADING OUR
WAY. DESPITE PLENTY OF SUN, A CHILLY DAY CAN BE EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH
HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID/UPPER 40S. NW WINDS OF 5-15 MPH WITH HIGHER
GUSTS WILL PRODUCE WIND CHILL VALUES 10 DEGREES OR SO COLDER. AS THE
HIGH MOVES IN, WINDS SHOULD DECREASE SUNDAY NIGHT. THE TEMPERATURE
WILL ALSO DROP, FALLING INTO THE LOW/MID 20S. WITH COLD AIR FIRMLY IN
PLACE, HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL ONLY RISE INTO THE LOWER 40S. A BIT
COLDER MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS AROUND 20. NOT AS COLD CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH HIGHS RISING TO AROUND 50. THE SURFACE HIGH BY
THIS TIME SHOULD BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA.
A MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES IS FORECAST FOR THE MIDWEEK AND BEYOND,
AS THE HIGH MOVES ACROSS THE EAST COAST. A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW
ROUNDING THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL RESULT IN MILDER
CONDITIONS FOR THE TENNESSEE VALLEY, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID WEEK BACK
RISING TO AROUND 60. A MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE GULF OF AMERICA, AND
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST WILL RETURN SHOWERS CHANCES
TO THE AREA. NEW OUTPUT FROM THE BLENDS IN THIS TIME HAVE KEPT THE
PRECIPITATION THUNDER FREE. SHOWER ACTIVITY WAS ALSO ON A SLIGHTLY
LATER START. A MILDER TREND CONTINUES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD RANGE IN THE 40S, WITH HIGHS THURSDAY IN
THE LOWER 60S.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1049 PM CST THU FEB 19 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR A MAJORITY OF THE TAF PERIOD.
GUSTY SSW WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WITH
GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS. AROUND 8Z, A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS WILL ENTER
NW AL AND MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH 11Z. SHOWERS THAT MOVE
DIRECTLY OVER THE TERMINAL MAY BRIEFLY LOWER CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES. AFTER THE BROKEN LINE PASSES, VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...KTW
SHORT TERM....KTW
LONG TERM....RSB
AVIATION...RAD
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