260
FXUS64 KHUN 281703
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1103 AM CST SUN DEC 28 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1002 AM CST SUN DEC 28 2025
- GUSTY WINDS UP TO 25-35 MPH ARE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT.
- A BAND OF HEAVY SHOWERS (ALONG A COLD FRONT) WILL CROSS THE
REGION FROM LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
STRONG WINDS OF 45-55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS LINE OF
SHOWERS.
- TEMPERATURES WILL BE SHARPLY COLDER ON MONDAY/TUESDAY, WITH
WIND CHILLS DROPPING INTO THE 5-15F RANGE EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1002 AM CST SUN DEC 28 2025
AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION,
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO THE OHIO RIVER AND
TENNESSEE VALLEYS EARLY MONDAY MORNING. AHEAD OF THIS, SOUTHERLY
FLOW FROM A SFC HIGH IN THE EASTERN GULF WILL ALLOW MOISTURE
ADVECTION AND SUBSEQUENT DENSE CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE AREA.
THE LATEST CAMS SHOW A LINE OF STORMS EXTENDING NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST FORMING AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND PUSHING SOUTHEASTWARD
INTO THE TN VALLEY BY ~02-03Z. THE FAST-MOVING FRONT SHOULD ALLOW
STORMS TO EXIT THE AREA TO THE SOUTHEAST BY ~09-10Z. GREATER
INSTABILITY AND LAPSE RATES REMAIN DISPLACED NORTH OF OUR AREA (IN
THE OH RIVER VALLEY). OUR COVERAGE AREA REMAINS IN AN AREA OF
VERY LITTLE INSTABILITY AND WEAK LAPSE RATES- WHICH WILL PREVENT
THE FORMATION OF WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS. WIND SHEAR, ON THE
OTHER HAND, WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SOME SHOWERS/STORMS
BEING CAPABLE OF GUSTY WINDS UP TO 50-55 MPH. GUSTY, GRADIENT
WINDS WILL ALSO BE SUPPORTED AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE FRONT AS A
70KT LLJ DIPS INTO THE AREA AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES-
WITH GUSTS UP TO 25-35 MPH BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON. BE SURE TO
SECURE ANY LOOSE OUTDOOR OBJECTS (INCLUDING HOLIDAY DECORATIONS)!
OTHERWISE, WE SHOULD BE CLOSE TO (BUT LIKELY WILL NOT BREAK)
RECORD HIGHS TODAY AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 70S. THE
HSV RECORD IS 74 DEGREES (1907 AND 2021) AND THE MSL RECORD IS 75
DEGREES (1907). TONIGHT, TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO COOL RAPIDLY
BEHIND THE FRONT, BRINGING LOWS INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S BY MONDAY
MORNING.
SHORT TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1002 AM CST SUN DEC 28 2025
POST-FRONTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BE MUCH COOLER TO BEGIN
THE WORK WEEK DESPITE AMPLE SUNSHINE. HIGHS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY
ARE FORECAST TO BE CAPPED IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S. WIND
CHILLS WILL BE OF CONCERN TUESDAY MORNING AS APPARENT TEMPERATURES
DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS. BE SURE TO DRESS IN
LAYERS IF HEADING OUTDOORS!
BY MID WEEK, NORTHERLY FLOW SHIFTS SLIGHTLY MORE WESTERLY AS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST OUT OF THE DEEP SOUTH.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE START OF A SLIGHT WARM UP THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK AS HIGHS RISE INTO THE 50S THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SFC
HIGH PRESSURE.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1013 PM CST SAT DEC 27 2025
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE TN VALLEY FOR
THE DURATION OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD, WITH A MODEST WARMING TREND
EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON WEDNESDAY AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE LOW-
LEVELS WILL EXIST TO THE NORTH OF A RIDGE LYING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF. ALTHOUGH A REINFORCING/DRY COLD FRONT MAY DROP INTO
THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT, PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE COLD
AIR WILL REMAIN DISPLACED TO OUR NORTH, WITH ONLY A MINOR DECREASE
IN DEWPOINTS ANTICIPATED AT THIS POINT. CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR
RAIN MAY BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE IN THE PERIOD (FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY) AS A WEAKENING MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW SHIFT
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE LOWER MS
VALLEY. HOWEVER, WE WILL KEEP POPS IN THE 30-40% RANGE AT THIS
POINT. HIGHS WILL PROGRESSIVELY WARM FROM THE M-U 40S ON WEDNESDAY
INTO THE M-U 50S BY SATURDAY, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS FINALLY RISING
ABOVE FREEZING (AND INTO THE M-U 30S) BY SATURDAY MORNING.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1103 AM CST SUN DEC 28 2025
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AT BOTH
KMSL AND KHSV AS A COLD FRONT BRINGS LOWERED CEILINGS AND
INCREASED CHANCES OF RAIN TO THE AREA. VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
TO RETURN MONDAY MORNING AFTER THE FRONT CLEARS THE AREA.
THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD, GUSTY WINDS UP TO ~25 KTS ARE FORECAST.
WIND DIRECTION SHOULD SHIFT FROM SOUTHWESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY
MONDAY MORNING.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...HC
SHORT TERM....HC
LONG TERM....70
AVIATION...HC
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