985
FXUS64 KHUN 160313
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
913 PM CST SUN FEB 15 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 913 PM CST SUN FEB 15 2026
- RAIN CHANCES INCREASE LATE WEEK WITH TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO
ASSESS ANY SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TONIGHT AND MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 913 PM CST SUN FEB 15 2026
CURRENT NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS SATELLITE IMAGERY PAIRED WITH
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS PAINT A VERY CLEAR PICTURE OF THE CURRENT
SYNOPTIC PATTERN IMPACTING THE SE CONUS. LOW CLOUDS CAN BE SEEN
MOVING COUNTERCLOCKWISE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST IN SYNC WITH THE MID
LEVEL CUT OFF LOW. A STARK CLEARING LINE CAN BE SEEN IN WESTERN
TN. THROUGH THE NIGHT, THIS CLEARING WILL GRADUALLY WORK SE WITH
CLOUDS BREAKING UP AROUND SUNRISE. AS WE LOSE PROXIMITY TO THE
SURFACE LOW, WINDS WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE CALM
CONDITIONS WILL PRESENT A NARROW WINDOW FOR SOME PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPMENT IN LOCATIONS THAT SEE CLEARING BEFORE DAYBREAK.
LINGERING CLOUDS WILL INHIBIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD DENSE
FOG.
BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW, FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL ON MONDAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A PLEASANT MID FEB DAY. PARTLY SUNNY SKIES
WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE MID TO HIGH 60S. THE SUN
WILL BE IN SHORT SUPPLY THIS WEEK SO MAKE SURE TO ENJOY IT.
SHORT TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 913 PM CST SUN FEB 15 2026
ZONAL FLOW WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. THIS
WILL KEEP OUR TEMPS ON A WARMING TREND AS HIGHS SOAR INTO THE HIGH
60S TO LOW 70S BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. UNFORTUNATELY THE
ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WILL ALSO BE THE CULPRIT CHARGED WITH STEALING
OUR SUNSHINE. THROUGH THE WEEK, A MID LEVEL LOW WILL DROP FROM
THE NORTH PACIFIC COAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL CONUS. THE ASSOCIATED
TROUGH WILL DAMPEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE CONUS ALLOWING
ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER TO SPILL INTO THE TN VALLEY. CLOUD COVER
LOOKS TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY WITH OVERCAST
CONDITIONS IN PLACE BY WEDNESDAY. DESPITE THE CLOUDY CONDITIONS
RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN BELOW 10%.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 913 PM CST SUN FEB 15 2026
A NEARLY ZONAL UPPER FLOW PATTERN SHOULD BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
GREATER CONUS FOR THE MID AND LATTER PORTIONS OF THE WEEK; ALBEIT
WEAK TROUGHING WEST AND WEAK RIDGING EAST. UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
INVOLVED WITHIN THE POLAR JET AS THEY MOVES THROUGH WEAK TROUGHING
OVER THE NE PACIFIC BASIN, ARE FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY AFTER THE MIDWEEK. IN ADDITION TO A FEED OF UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE, A DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING ADDITIONAL LOWER-LEVEL
GULF OF AMERICA MOISTURE TO THE REGION.
THE ABOVE WILL PRODUCE A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN FOR THE LATE WEEK.
AS SUCH, LOWER END CHANCES OF SHOWERS RETURNS TO THE FORECAST BEFORE
DAYBREAK THURSDAY. HEIGHTENED INSTABILITY AND MODEST SHEAR WILL ALSO
BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN MORE PREVALENT
SHOWERS LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY. AN OVERALL FLAT UPPER
PATTERN NOW DEPICTED COULD HELP TAME OVERALL STORM STRENGTH, IF
THAT TREND CONTINUES. LATER MODEL RUNS SHOULD GIVE A BETTER PICTURE
OF SYSTEM DETAILS AS WE DRAW NEARER TO THE LATE WEEK.
UNSEASONABLY MILD TO WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY, WITH
HIGHS RISING INTO THE MID/UPPER 70S AND THE MID 70S FRIDAY. LOWS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD RANGE IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND
60.THE EXTENDED MODELS AND BLENDS SHOW A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE
VALLEY ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM ALASKA/CANADA WILL
BRING COLDER CONDITIONS TO THE AREA FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THE MOMENT, HIGHS ON SATURDAY SHOULD RANGE IN THE
MID 60S, AND THE MID 50S SUNDAY. LOWS WILL DROP TO AROUND 40 SATURDAY
NIGHT AND INTO THE UPPER 20S TO NEAR 30 SUNDAY MORNING.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 524 PM CST SUN FEB 15 2026
LINGERING LOW CLOUDS BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL
KEEP MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS IN PLACE THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT AT
BOTH TERMINALS. CEILING WILL BEGIN TO LIFT CLOSER TO SUNRISE. IF
CONDITIONS CLEAR PRIOR TO SUNRISE, PATCHY FOG COULD DEVELOP.
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW IN FOG FORMATION TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT
THIS TIME. BEYOND SUNRISE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH
TERMINALS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...RAD
SHORT TERM....RAD
LONG TERM....RSB
AVIATION...RAD
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