496
FXUS64 KHUN 262318
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
518 PM CST MON JAN 26 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 238 PM CST MON JAN 26 2026
- LOCALLY HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND
TONIGHT, DUE TO FROZEN PUDDLES OF WATER COATED BY LIGHT SNOW
FLURRIES.
- A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
THROUGH 10 AM TUESDAY. WIND CHILLS OF -5 TO +5 ARE EXPECTED.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 238 PM CST MON JAN 26 2026
THERE HAVE BEEN NO CHANGES TO THE NEAR TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST SINCE THE UPDATE EARLIER THIS MORNING, WITH CURRENT
TEMPERATURES LIKELY NEAR MAX VALUES FOR THE DAY. BASED ON RECENT
REFLECTIVITY DATA FROM KHTX, IT APPEARS AS IF ANY LINGERING
POCKETS OF SNOW FLURRIES SHOULD END ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEASTERN
CORNER OF AL BY 22Z, AND WITH BANDS OF COLD AIR STRATOCU EXPECTED
TO DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET, THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A VERY
COLD NIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS STILL APPEAR ON TRACK TO REACH THE
8-12F RANGE, AND A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 12
AM-10 AM TUESDAY.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
IN THE MID/UPPER-LEVELS, A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE WILL SHIFT
GRADUALLY EASTWARD ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF NORTH AMERICA OVER
THE COURSE OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD, EFFECTIVELY SUSTAINING A
DOWNSTREAM LONGWAVE TROUGH (ANCHORED BY A COLD CORE VORTEX IN THE
VICINITY OF JAMES BAY). EMBEDDED WITHIN THE BROADER BELT OF
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT, A POSITIVELY-TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
PROGRESS SOUTHEASTWARD TODAY, LIKELY CROSSING THE CWFA AT SOME
POINT LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT LIFT RELATED TO THIS DISTURBANCE IS
CONTRIBUTING TO SOME MOISTENING IN THE 650-750 MB LAYER, WHICH MAY
IN TURN BE RESPONSIBLE FOR SNOW FLURRIES ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING (IN A SEEDER-FEEDER TYPE SCENARIO WHERE DENDRITES ARE
FALLING INTO THE PREEXISTING LOW STRATUS LAYER). ALTHOUGH THIS
REGIME MAY CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS (ESPECIALLY
EAST OF I-65), THE TINY NATURE OF THE SNOW CRYSTALS SHOULD PREVENT
ADDITIONAL DETERIORATION IN ROAD CONDITIONS, AND WE ARE NOT
ANTICIPATING RE-ISSUANCE OF A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AT THIS
POINT.
OTHERWISE, GUSTY NNW WINDS ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN FLANK OF A
MODIFYING ARCTIC HIGH CENTERED ACROSS NORTHWEST TX WILL CONTINUE
TO ADVECT A BITTERLY COLD AIRMASS INTO THE REGION TODAY, WITH
TEMPERATURES ONLY BRIEFLY TOUCHING THE L20S IN ELEVATED TERRAIN
AND M-U 20S ELSEWHERE THIS AFTERNOON. AS A RIDGE EXTENDING
NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE HIGH BUILDS INTO TN VALLEY, WINDS WILL BEGIN
TO SUBSIDE AFTER 22Z AND SHOULD BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE-CALM FOR
MUCH OF THE EVENING, BEFORE A LIGHT SW FLOW RESUMES PRIOR TO
SUNRISE TUESDAY. THIS, ALONG WITH CLEAR SKIES AND DEWPOINTS IN THE
0-10F RANGE WILL SUPPORT OVERNIGHT LOWS OF 8-12F. IN THESE
CONDITIONS, EVEN A MINOR INCREASE IN WIND WOULD CREATE WIND CHILLS
OF 0-5F FOR MUCH OF THE REGION, AND A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6-16Z TUESDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1015 AM CST MON JAN 26 2026
THE REMNANT/ELONGATED ARCTIC SURFACE RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM THE
NORTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST TOMORROW, WITH A MODEST
INCREASE IN WSW BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE M30S (ELEVATED TERRAIN) AND
U30S-L40S ELSEWHERE. BY LATE AFTERNOON, HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
BEGIN TO INCREASE AS A SMALL BUT AMPLIFYING TROUGH DIGS
SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY IN
PREVAILING WNW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN CONUS.
ALTHOUGH CIRROSTRATUS CLOUDS MAY BECOME OVERCAST AT TIMES TUESDAY
NIGHT, ANY RISK FOR LIGHT SNOW FLURRIES WITH THIS SYSTEM APPEAR TO
BE CONFINED TO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU.
HOWEVER, CONDITIONS COULD BECOME FAVORABLE FOR PATCHY FREEZING FOG
IN A FEW LOCAL VALLEYS AS TEMPS FALL INTO THE 15-20F RANGE.
DURING THE WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT TIMEFRAME, A MODIFYING
CANADIAN HIGH WILL BUILD SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS
INTO THE GULF COAST STATES, PROVIDING LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS AND
LITTLE FLUCTUATION IN EITHER DEWPOINTS OR TEMPERATURES. THUS, WE
EXPECT HIGHS TO REMAIN IN THE U30S-L40S FOR MOST OF THE REGION,
WITH LOWS IN THE 15-20F RANGE (AND PATCHY FREEZING FOG POSSIBLE IN
A FEW LOCATIONS).
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1010 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2026
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST ALOFT THROUGH SUNDAY, WITH A SERIES
OF SHORTWAVES TRAVERSING THE TENNESSEE VALLEY DURING THIS TIME.
HOWEVER, A STOUT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL
CONUS LOOKS TO QUICKLY DIVE SOUTH TOWARDS TEXAS AND THE ARKLATEX
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. GUIDANCE LAST NIGHT SHOWED A LOW CHANCE
(10-15%) OF PRECIPITATION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, AND THESE
PROBABILITIES HAVE DROPPED EVEN LOWER WITH TONIGHT'S NEW DATA.
WE'LL CONTINUE TO WATCH THIS IN CASE TRENDS FLIP THE OTHER WAY;
BUT, AT THIS TIME NO PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST FROM THURSDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL THEREFORE BE THE MOST NOTEWORTHY ASPECT OF THE
LONG TERM FORECAST. HIGHS LOOK TO BE "WARMER" ON THURSDAY, WITH
VALUES EXPECTED TO REACH THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. HOWEVER, WITH
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER IMPULSES PROGRESSING OVER THE REGION,
HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO DROP BACK DOWN INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH, TEMPERATURES THEN WARM RIGHT BACK
INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ON SUNDAY. LOWS EACH NIGHT WILL
STILL BE VERY COLD, WITH VALUES IN THE MID TEENS TO AROUND 20
DEGREES THURSDAY NIGHT PLUMMETING INTO THE LOWER TO MID TEENS
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHTS. THEREFORE, PLEASE CONTINUE TO EXERCISE
WINTER SAFETY AND PROTECT PEOPLE, PETS, PIPES, AND PLANTS! SPACE
HEATER SAFETY IS ALSO VERY IMPORTANT IF YOU PLAN TO USE ONE TO
KEEP WARM. KEEP THE AREA AROUND HEATERS CLEAR (3 FOOT RULE), PLUG
THEM DIRECTLY INTO OUTLETS (NO EXTENSION CORDS), AND DON'T LEAVE
THEM RUNNING WHILE YOU ARE AWAY OR SLEEPING!
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 518 PM CST MON JAN 26 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE FEW MIDLEVEL
CLOUDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL EVENTUALLY CLEAR THIS EVENING,
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PERSISTING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO DECREASE TO BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND THIS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. WINDS ARE
THEN EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO BE WESTERLY AND INCREASE TO AROUND 10
KNOTS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO BETWEEN 15-20 KNOTS ARE ALSO
ANTICIPATED TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CST TUESDAY
FOR ALZ001>010-016.
TN...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CST TUESDAY
FOR TNZ076-096-097.
NEAR TERM...70
SHORT TERM....70
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...26
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