826
FXUS64 KHUN 080900
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
400 AM CDT SUN MAR 8 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 400 AM CDT SUN MAR 8 2026
- MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES (50-80%) OF RAIN WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON, ALONG WITH A LOW CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE TENNESSEE RIVER. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS
FORECAST TODAY.
- THERE IS A LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCE (30-60%) OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY, AS WELL AS A LOW RISK OF A FEW STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS ALONG AT WEST OF I-65.
- ANOTHER RISK (LOW TO MEDIUM) OF SEVERE WEATHER EXISTS ON
WEDNESDAY.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT SUN MAR 8 2026
CURRENTLY, LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN IS FALLING OVER NORTH-CENTRAL
AND NORTHEAST ALABAMA. AS A SURFACE FRONT APPROACHES THE LOCAL
AREA AND MORE RETURNS ARE SHOWN ON RADAR TO THE WEST OVER
MISSISSIPPI, EXPECTING LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL TO CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL ALSO RETURN
AS THE SUN RISES AND SOME INSTABILITY IS REALIZED THROUGH THE
MORNING AND INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, EVEN WITH SUFFICIENT
BULK SHEAR, GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT INSTABILITY WILL BE MINIMAL
(UNDER 500 J/KG) THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION, LAPSE RATES
ARE UNIMPRESSIVE (BETWEEN 5-6 DEGC/KM). THEREFORE, SEVERE WEATHER
IS NOT FORECAST TODAY. MOST OF THE STORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
BE CONCENTRATED ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE TENNESSEE RIVER, WHERE THE
GREATER INSTABILITY IS ANTICIPATED AS THE SURFACE FRONT MOVES OVER
THE LOCAL AREA TODAY. OVERALL, IT'LL BE ANOTHER GLOOMY DAY WITH
MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES (50-80%) OF SHOWERS AND STORMS UNTIL
CHANCES DIMINISH AND CLOUDS BEGIN TO BREAK UP LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S THIS AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1113 PM CST SAT MAR 7 2026
A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD EAST BEHIND THE
FRONT INTO THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING. NOT MUCH COLD AIR IS BEHIND
THIS FRONT, SO LOWS WILL STILL REMAIN FAIRLY WARM, ONLY DROPPING
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S. HOWEVER, THE VERY DIFFUSE/WEAK FRONT
MAY WAFFLE NORTHWARD LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. HOW
FAR NORTH IT MAKES IT WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON WHERE A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. A PORTION OF THE STRONGER LIFT IN MOST GUIDANCE DOES
MOVE OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ALABAMA (RIGHT NOW LIKELY MORE
SOUTH OF THE TENNESSEE RIVER). THERMODYNAMIC AND SHEAR PARAMETERS
WOULD SUPPORT STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. QUITE LARGE
HAIL MAY EVOLVE OVER TIME TO BECOME A MORE SIGNIFICANT THREAT
GIVEN VERY STRONG LAPSE RATES, MODERATE INSTABILITY, AND LOW WET-
BULB ZERO HEIGHTS FORECAST BY MODELS PRIOR TO CONVECTIVE
INITIATION. HOWEVER, TIMING AND THE EXACT MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON THAT. IF THE LOCATION
OF THIS FRONT TRENDS FURTHER NORTH, A FAIRLY CONCENTRATED AREA OF
SEVERE WEATHER COULD OCCUR OVER THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON OR
EVENING PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND PARTICULARLY LARGE HAIL.
HELICITY DOESN'T LOOK VERY IMPRESSIVE, SO NOT AS CONCERNED ABOUT
TORNADO POTENTIAL, THOUGH ELEVATED SUPERCELLS DEFINITELY LOOK
POSSIBLE. HEATING IN THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON 925 MB TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING INTO THE 16 TO 18 DEGREES IN SEVERAL MODELS AROUND NOON
SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
AGAIN TIMING IN THE AFTERNOON OF INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES VARY WITH VARIOUS GUIDANCE. HOWEVER, AT
LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD INITIATE SOMETIME
BETWEEN 1 PM AND 7 PM AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE LATER IN THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THEY PUSH EAST BUT WEAKEN IN STRENGTH. A
GOOD 1 TO 1.5 INCHES OF RAINFALL LOOKS REASONABLE GIVEN THE LIFT
AND PWAT VALUES SHOWN IN GUIDANCE BEFORE BECOMING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED IN COVERAGE ON TUESDAY. SHEAR IS VERY WEAK ON TUESDAY
BUT INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT, SO SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD
DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON. THESE SHOULD BE FAIRLY WEAK THUNDERSTORMS
THOUGH. 925 MB TEMPERATURES CLIMB AT BIT HIGHER IN THE AFTERNOON
ON TUESDAY AND EXPECTED MORE SUNSHINE AS WELL. THIS SHOULD PUSH
HIGHS BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S (MAYBE A BIT HIGHER).
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1113 PM CST SAT MAR 7 2026
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW JUST WEST OF THE NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA INVOLVED
WITH THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF TROUGHING ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS
WILL MOVE MORE TO THE SW OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AS IT DOES
SO, IT BECOMES CUT-OFF FROM THE MAIN NORTHERN STREAM. THIS UPPER
LOW SHOULD BE PICKED UP BY WESTERLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ON TUESDAY.
IT WILL BECOME PART OF A PROGRESSIVE TROUGH THAT WILL TAKE ON
NEUTRAL, IF NOT A SLIGHT NEGATIVE TILT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
CENTRAL LOWER-48 DURING THE WED-THU TIMEFRAME. FROM TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, A STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA. THIS FLOW WILL PRODUCE UNSEASONABLE
WARMTH FOR THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT
WILL RANGE LOW/MID 60S, WITH HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY AROUND 80 DEGREES.
NORMAL HIGH/LOW TEMPERATURES THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE AROUND 64/42.
BIG CHANGES TO THIS WARM PATTERN WILL BE ARRIVING AS WE GO THROUGH
THE MIDWEEK. UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING ASHORE SOUTHERN ALASKA
AND BRITISH COLUMBIA EARLIER IN THE WEEK, WILL IN PART PRODUCE A
SURFACE LOW OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES SUN/MON. THIS LOW WILL MOVE ESE
ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS TUE, THEN HEAD TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES WED. COLDER AIR NORTH OF THIS LOW WILL BEGIN SPILLING SOUTHWARD
SOUTH AND WEST OF THIS LOW (FORMING A COLD FRONT) AS THE SURFACE
CYCLONE HEADS TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO
MOVE ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WED EVENING. A LIFTING OF WARM AND
MOIST AIR BY THIS FRONT, WILL RESULT IN NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WED NIGHT. STRONG SHEAR NOTED BEFORE THE COLD
FRONT ARRIVES SUGGESTS A QUASI-LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEM, OR SQUALL
LINE WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THE MAIN THREAT. THE WESTERN PORTION OF
OUR AREA HAS BEEN PLACED IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR DAY-5; WHICH WILL
PROBABLY BE SIMILAR WHEN THE DAY-4 OUTLOOK IS RELEASED. AROUND AN
INCH OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FROM THIS SYSTEM.
MUCH COOLER AIR FILTERING IN WEST OF THE EXITING COLD FRONT WILL BE
A REALITY CHECK, SHOWING THAT THE WINTER SEASON IS NOT QUITE OVER
WITH. LOW TEMPERATURES WED NIGHT SHOULD TUMBLE TO AROUND 40, A GOOD
20 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY. THURSDAY WILL PRESENT MUCH
COOLER CONDITIONS. DESPITE SUNNY SKIES, THE AIRMASS CHANGE WILL BE
SUBSTANTIAL, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S. CHILLY CONDITIONS
CONTINUE THU NIGHT, WITH LOWS FROM THE MID 30S TO NEAR 40. THE LOWER
END OF THIS COULD RESULT IN EARLY GROWING SEASON FROST DEVELOPMENT
MAINLY IN/NEAR SHELTERED AND MORE EXPOSED AREAS. OTHERWISE, IT SHOULD
BE CLOSE TO SEASONABLE WARMTH UNDER GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES FOR FRIDAY
THE THIRTEENTH, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S. THE WARMING TREND
CONTINUES FOR THE START OF THE NEXT WEEKEND, WITH LOWS FRI NIGHT IN
THE 40S, AND HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE LOWER 70S.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CST SAT MAR 7 2026
LOW CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO FILTER BACK INTO THE LOCAL AREA OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS, WITH MVFR TO IFR CIGS FORECAST FOR LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. MEDIUM CHANCES (40-60%) OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE SHOWERS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT, AS MORE
SHOWERS MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. CHANCES OF STORMS FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE OVERNIGHT ARE VERY LOW. SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY THEN
LOOKS TO INCREASE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING, WITH CHANCES OF STORMS
INCREASING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE TN RIVER AS WELL. HOWEVER, NO
SEVERE WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED TODAY. LOW CIGS WILL ALSO PREVAIL
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON AT LEAST BEFORE CLOUDS BEGIN TO BREAK
UP BY MID AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO THEN RETURN
FOR BOTH TERMINALS BY SUNDAY EVENING. AS FOR WINDS, EXPECTING THEM
TO GENERALLY HOVER AROUND 5 KNOTS OR SO THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON,
BUT SHIFT FROM BEING SOUTHWESTERLY TONIGHT TO BEING NORTHWESTERLY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM....KTW
LONG TERM....RSB
AVIATION...26
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