063
FXUS64 KHUN 282336
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
536 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 931 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2025
- BELOW FREEZING OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
- HIGH RAIN CHANCES (70-90%) WILL BE PRESENT SATURDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOW CHANCES FOR THUNDER.
NEAR TERM
(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 207 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2025
NO CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST HAVE BEEN MADE WITH THIS
UPDATE. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON HAVE WARMED UP INTO THE UPPER
40S TO AROUND 50 IN NW AL. HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM
IN FROM THE WEST, BUT WILL HAVE NO IMPACT TO THE LOCAL WEATHER
FORECAST.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
AFTER A CHILLY START ACROSS THE AREA IN THE MID 20S, SUNSHINE
THIS MORNING HAS GRADUALLY WARMED ALL LOCATIONS ABOVE FREEZING AS
OF 9AM. THROUGH TODAY, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO
SHIFT EAST. THE TENNESSEE VALLEY SITS ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THIS
TROUGH AND AS A RESULT CAA FROM NW FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES ON THE COOLER SIDE TODAY DESPITE AMPLE SUNSHINE.
AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S,
WHICH IS AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
TONIGHT, CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL MAKE AN IDEAL SETUP FOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING. TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN WILL DROP BELOW
FREEZING WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER
20S.
SHORT TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 931 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2025
AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG DOWN
ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS. AT THE
SAME TIME, A SHORT WAVE ALONG THE SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER JET WILL
PUSH ACROSS TX INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS WILL BRING A BRIEF WINDOW FOR WEAK WAA AS
THE SFC FLOW SHIFT TO MORE SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM.
AFTERNOON HIGHS ON SATURDAY REACH THE LOWER 50S. RAIN BEGINS TO
SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST SATURDAY EVENING WITH HIGH CHANCES FOR
PRECIP OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE AFORMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM EJECTS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON SUNDAY WITH A
TRAILING COLD FRONT THAT WILL STRETCH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
SOUTHWARD INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE
LOCAL FORECAST AREA BY MIDDAY ON SUNDAY ENDING THE RAIN FROM WEST
TO EAST. COLDER AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NW BY SUNDAY NIGHT
RESULTING IN ANOTHER COLD NIGHT WITH LOWS DIPPING INTO THE MID
20S.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 902 PM CST THU NOV 27 2025
OUR MAIN FEATURE TO WATCH IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND SUBSEQUENT SFC LOW SWINGING NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. ENSEMBLES ARE GENERALLY AGREEING ON THE PRESENCE
OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTING INTO OUR AREA, BRINGING WIDESPREAD
SHOWER CHANCES THROUGH THE TN VALLEY ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. NO
STRONG OF SEVERE STORMS ARE FORECAST WITH THESE SHOWERS AS
INSTABILITY LOOKS EXTREMELY LOW. THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC LOW IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE NE, OUT OF THE AREA, BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH
SFC HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING IN FROM THE WEST. WHILE PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS
WERE HINTING AT SOME FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL IN SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN,
RECENT GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND DRIER WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS WHEN
TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW FREEZING ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCES THE AREA. WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN MOSTLY DRY-- WITH LOW CONFIDENCE, LOW
RAIN CHANCES PUSHING BACK INTO THE FORECAST BY THURSDAY EVENING
AHEAD OF ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. HIGHS DURING THE LONG TERM
PERIOD ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 40S-50S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
20S-30S.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 535 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2025
LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT. AN
APPROACHING SYSTEM FROM THE WEST WILL BRING OVERCAST CONDITIONS
AND GUSTY EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN WILL FOLLOW,
MOST LIKELY AFTER THIS TAF PERIOD, BUT A PROB30 GROUP WAS INCLUDED
AT MSL TO PREPARE FOR POTENTIAL EARLIER TIME OF ARRIVAL.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...GH
SHORT TERM....GH
LONG TERM....HC
AVIATION...30
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