513
FXUS64 KHUN 261522
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1022 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1022 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2026
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.
- LOW-MEDIUM CHANCES (10-50%) FOR LIGHT SHOWERS ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING.
- FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL RETURN ON SATURDAY WITH A MEDIUM
CHANCE FOR A RED FLAG WARNING.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1022 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2026
ANOTHER BEAUTIFUL START TO THE DAY ACROSS THE TN VALLEY WITH
SKIES RANGING FROM MOSTLY SUNNY IN NW AL TO MOSTLY CLOUDY IN NE
AL. WE ARE STARTING OFF THE DAY A FEW DEGREES WARMER AND
DEWPOINTS WAY HIGHER THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY. DRY WEATHER WILL
PERSIST DUE TO THE SUBSIDENCE OF THE SFC HIGH ALONG THE SOUTHERN
ATLANTIC COAST STATES, BACK INTO THE GULF COAST COMBINED WITH THE
500 MB RIDGE STATIONED OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN PLAINS AND NORTHERN
MEXICO THAT BUILDS A LITTLE EASTWARD TODAY. THIS COMBINED WITH
BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL PUSH AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS INTO THE
LOWER 80S ACROSS THE TN VALLEY. THIS WILL NOT MEET OR BREAK ANY
TEMP RECORDS, BUT STILL 20 DEGREES WARMER THAN NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. BE SAFE IN THE HEAT. TAKE IT SLOW, NEVER LEAVE PETS
OR PEOPLE IN VEHICLES, STAY HYDRATED.
AS FOR TONIGHT, SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR, BUT WINDS WON'T
COMPLETELY SLACK. WITH THE HIGHS AS WARM AS THEY WILL BE TODAY AND
THE LINGERING WAA, LOWS WILL BE MORE LIKE SEASONABLE HIGHS ONLY
REACHING THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S.
SHORT TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1022 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2026
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST UNTIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON WHEN A
WEAK WAVE ROUNDS THE RIDGE. THIS WILL PULL A COLD FRONT INTO THE
FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. AHEAD OF IT, THERE WILL
BE ONLY A LOW TO MEDIUM (10-40%) CHANCE OF SHOWERS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WITH THE HIGHER CHANCES NORTH OF THE TN RIVER AND INTO
SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN. THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL ALSO BRING GUSTY
WINDS UP TO 25 MPH TO MAYBE 30 MPH OVERNIGHT.
BEHIND THE FRONT, IS WHERE WE HAVE THE GREATEST WEATHER CONCERN.
THIS WEEKEND FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED,
ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY. THE COMBINATION OF AFTERNOON RH VALUES
BELOW 30% SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND GUSTY NE WINDS WILL GREATLY
INCREASE THE RISK OF WILDFIRES IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE ONGOING
SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS. AS OF RIGHT NOW, WE DO NOT MEET RED
FLAG WARNING CRITERIA, HOWEVER TRENDS AND OBS WILL BE MONITORED
FOR THE NEED OF AN ISSUANCE IN FUTURE FORECAST UPDATES. AS A
REMINDER, FOR OUR ARE A RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA IS: MIN RH
VALUES BELOW 25% AND SUSTAINED WINDS OF 17+ MPH OR GUSTS OF 25+
MPH.
REGARDLESS, BE MINDFUL OF THIS AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND AND
CHECK THE FORECAST BEFORE DOING ANYTHING THAT COULD RESULT IN AN
UN-CONTAINED OPEN FLAME AND DO NOT LET CHAINS DRAG FROM VEHICLES
OR TRAILERS.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 947 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2026
THE PRIMARY FEATURE TO FOCUS ON IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE FORECAST TO PUSH EASTWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
TOWARDS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THROUGH MID WEEK. IN RETURN, SUBSEQUENT
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS AND A GRADUAL WARM
UP IN TEMPERATURES. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE FROM
THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S ON SUNDAY TO THE MID 80S ON WEDNESDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME WILL DROP INTO THE 40-50S BOTH
SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE MORE MILD WITH LOWS IN
THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. TUESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY, A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IS FORECAST TO PUSH IN BEHIND THE RIDGE AS IT SHIFTS TOWARD
THE CAROLINAS. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL ALLOW LOW CHANCES (30% OR LESS) OF
RAINFALL THROUGH OUR AREA (PRIMARILY NORTH OF THE TN RIVER).
CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO SLIGHT MODEL DISAGREEMENT IN THE PLACEMENT
OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE, SO HAVE CONTINUED WITH BLENDED GUIDANCE. IF THE
SFC HIGH IS ABLE TO HOLD ITS POSITION OVER THE FL PENINSULA, THIS
WILL ALLOW MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE AREA AS RAINFALL CHANCES
ARE KEPT TO OUR NORTH.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 639 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2026
THERE HAVE BEEN NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS AVIATION FORECAST
REASONING AS VFR CONDITIONS WILL EXIST TODAY, FEATURING A BROKEN
LAYER OF AS EARLY THIS MORNING AND A SCT-BKN FAIR-WEATHER CU FIELD
LATER THIS MORNING (WHICH SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 23Z). SFC WINDS
WILL VEER TO SSW BY 15Z AND INCREASE TO 9G17 KTS (BEFORE
DIMINISHING ONCE AGAIN AROUND SUNSET). THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS
THAT A LOWER (PERHAPS MVFR) STRATUS LAYER MAY RETURN BTWN 9-12Z,
BUT WE HAVE NOT INCLUDED THIS IN THE CURRENT TAFS. PATCHY BR/FG
MAY ALSO DEVELOP EARLY FRI MORNING IN PROTECTED VALLEYS AND NEAR
LARGE BODIES OF WATER, BUT SHOULD NOT HAVE AN IMPACT AT THE
TERMINALS.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...JMS
SHORT TERM....JMS
LONG TERM....HC
AVIATION...70
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