471
FXUS64 KHUN 190531
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1231 AM CDT THU MAR 19 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 921 PM CDT WED MAR 18 2026
- DRY WEATHER AND A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN TODAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND, WITH HIGHS REACHING NEAR RECORD VALUES
ON SUNDAY.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TONIGHT AND THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 921 PM CDT WED MAR 18 2026
A SHORTWAVE, THAT PRODUCED SOME LIGHT SHOWERS AND VIRGA ACROSS TN
THIS AFTERNOON, CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS GA THIS
EVENING. THE SOUTHEAST REMAINS UNDER A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WITH NORTHERLY FLOW KEEPING IN A COOL AND DRY AIRMASS. TONIGHT,
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ALLOW FOR IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO DROP DOWN INTO THE MID 30S
ACROSS NE AL AND UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE OF FROST ACROSS PORTIONS OF DEKALB AND JACKSON COUNTIES
TONIGHT, BUT THE DRY AIRMASS MAY LIMIT HOW WIDESPREAD IT WILL BE.
PLUS, BLENDED MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A SLIGHT WARMING TREND FROM
RUN TO RUN, MAKING FOR NOT NEARLY AS COLD OF A NIGHT. TEMPERATURE
TRENDS WILL BE WATCHED TONIGHT IN CASE A SHORT FUSED FROST
ADVISORY IS NEEDED.
BY TOMORROW, THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS BEGINS TO SHIFT EASTWARD.
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP THE DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE,
BUT SFC FLOW SHIFTS TO MORE WESTERLY ALLOWING FOR A WARMER DAY
COMPARED TO THE CHILLY CONDITIONS WE HAVE FELT ALL WEEK. FORECAST
HIGHS SHOULD RETURN TO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S BY THE
AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 921 PM CDT WED MAR 18 2026
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK AND INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND. THE LARGE AMPLITUDE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS SHIFTS EASTWARD BRINGING BACK
SOUTHERLY SFC FLOW. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE MID 70S ON FRIDAY
AND LOWER 80S BY SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS REMAIN MILD AS WELL IN
THE MID 50S.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 921 PM CDT WED MAR 18 2026
WARM CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON SUNDAY AS THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH
PRESSURE TO OUR WEST REMAINS STRONG. EXPECT HIGHS TO ONCE AGAIN
RETURN TO THE LOW TO MID 80S. A COLD FRONT ATTEMPTS TO PUSH
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, BUT ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE KEEPS THE
AREA DRY. THIS WILL BE A FEATURE TO WATCH, AS LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE DOES SHOW PRECIP ACROSS KY/N TN. HOWEVER, IT WILL BE A
BIT COOLER TO START THE WORK WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT, NORTHWEST FLOW TAKES SHAPE BRINGING A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE
THROUGH THE AREA. LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF THESE FEATURES,
BUT AT LEAST A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1231 AM CDT THU MAR 19 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED EAST OF THE MID ATLANTIC AND NEW
ENGLAND COASTS, WILL HELP MAINTAIN A SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THIS
REGION. LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT SHOULD BECOME S-SW AT 5-10KT A FEW
HOURS AFTER DAYBREAK, THEN DIMINISH BELOW 5KT AFTER DUSK. A NW
FLOW IN THE HIGH ALTITUDES WILL BRING PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDS
ACROSS THE AREA, WITH JUST FEW TO SCATTERED COVERAGE EXPECTED.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...GH
SHORT TERM....GH
LONG TERM....GH
AVIATION...RSB
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