257  
FXUS64 KHUN 111853  
AFDHUN  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL  
153 PM CDT SUN APR 11 2021  
   
NEAR TERM
 
(TONIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 148 PM CDT SUN APR 11 2021  
 
A SUNNY BLUE CLEAR SKY DAY ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TODAY. PW  
VALUES ARE GENERALLY UNDER A HALF AN INCH IN THIS DRY ATMOSPHERE. THE  
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FEATURES A CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH  
A SHORTWAVE RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. AT THE  
SURFACE, A LOW IS CENTERED UNDER THE UPPER LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES  
WITH A HIGH CENTERED ACROSS LOUSIANA. THIS HAS LEAD TO WESTERLY  
WINDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THESE WINDS HAVE BEEN GUSTY AT TIMES  
THIS AFTERNOON AND EXPECT GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH WILL CONTINUE TO BE  
POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES AS OF EARLY THIS  
AFTERNOON HAVE WARMED INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S AND WILL CONTINUE  
TO CLIMB INTO THE MID 70S.  
 
WINDS WILL SUBSIDE SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT  
RELAXES AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE  
THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN RATHER DRY OVERNIGHT AND DO NOT ANTICIPATE  
ANY FOG FORMATION OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER, THE DRY ATMOSPHERE, CALM WINDS,  
AND CLEAR SKIES WILL LEAD TO IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS.  
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S.  
   
SHORT TERM
 
(MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 148 PM CDT SUN APR 11 2021  
 
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE SHORT-TERM FORECAST  
PERIOD. UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT RISES WILL OCCUR ON MONDAY AS THE RIDGE TO  
THE WEST PUSHES FURTHER EAST. THESE HEIGHT RISES COUPLED WITH SUNNY  
SKIES WILL LEAD TO HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO  
LOW 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. ADDITIONALLY, ON MONDAY ANOTHER UPPER  
LEVEL CLOSED LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND WESTERN GREAT  
LAKES. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL  
AND SOUTHERN PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF THIS UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW. THIS  
UPPER LEVEL LOW SLOWLY DRIFTS EASTWARD ON TUESDAY WITH THE FRONT  
SLOWLY PROGRESSING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. LOW-LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE  
FRONT IS GENERALLY WESTERLY, SO THERE IS NOT A GREAT DEAL OF MOISTURE  
ADVECTION. PW VALUES DO BEGIN TO CREEP UP BUT OVERALL THINK TUESDAY  
REMAINS DRY WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER. TEMPERATURES WILL BE  
SLIGHTLY COOLER ON TUESDAY THANKS TO THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER WITH  
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)  
ISSUED AT 148 PM CDT SUN APR 11 2021  
 
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE CONTINUES TO BE SLOWER IN THE RECENT MODEL  
SOLUTIONS. A WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EVENTUALLY  
PUSH THE BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH AND EAST ON WEDNESDAY. WITH THIS  
SHORTWAVE, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE BOUNDARY WITH  
SHOWERS DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS ALSO SUPPORT CONTINUED  
POST-FRONTAL PRECIPITATION ON WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW, JUST HAVE SHOWERS,  
BUT BASED ON LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS, MAY NEED TO ADD THUNDER INTO  
THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY. DRIER AND COOLER AIR MOVE INTO THE  
TENNESSEE VALLEY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE  
BOUNDARY WILL DROP LOW TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S  
THURSDAY MORNING. THURSDAY WILL BE DRY WITH NORTHERLY FLOW AND COLD  
AIR ADVECTION CONTINUING THROUGHOUT THE DAY. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL  
BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.  
 
MODELS DIFFER ON HOW QUICKLY MOISTURE RETURNS LATE NEXT WEEK. NEXT  
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL COME FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)  
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT SUN APR 11 2021  
 
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE TAF CYCLE. WESTERLY WINDS  
THIS AFTERNOON WILL GUST TO NEAR 20-25 KTS AT TIMES. THESE WINDS  
WILL SUBSIDE AROUND 00Z WITH PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO  
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME, CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE  
FOG IN THE TAFS.  
 

 
   
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
AL...NONE.  
TN...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
NEAR TERM...MA  
SHORT TERM...MA  
LONG TERM...MA  
AVIATION...MA  
 
FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE  
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.  
 
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