134
FXUS64 KHUN 181618
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1018 AM CST WED FEB 18 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1018 AM CST WED FEB 18 2026
- UNSEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY,
WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S.
- LOW TO MEDIUM RAIN CHANCES (INCLUDING A FEW THUNDERSTORMS)
FROM TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING, WITH A HIGH CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY MORNING.
- A COLDER AIRMASS WILL RETURN TO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1018 AM CST WED FEB 18 2026
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OF 70-80 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE TN VALLEY THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD, AS
OUR REGION WILL REMAIN ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A FLAT
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM EQUATORIAL PORTIONS OF THE
EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC. WELL
TO OUR NORTH- NORTHWEST, A CLOSED MID/UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONE IS
PREDICTED TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY,
AS A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH (INITIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN
PARTS OF CA/NV) EJECTS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
WITH AN INCREASING NEGATIVE-TILT. WITHIN THIS GENERAL PATTERN
ALOFT, DEEP-LAYER WARM/MOIST ADVECTION ACROSS OUR REGION WILL BE
SUSTAINED BY MODERATELY STRONG SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER THAT WILL PERSIST AS AN OCCLUDING SURFACE LOW
(RELATED TO THE CLOSED CYCLONE TO OUR NORTH-NORTHWEST) DRIFTS
EASTWARD FROM CENTRAL MN INTO NORTHERN WI AND A DEVELOPING LOW
(ACROSS EASTERN CO) SHIFTS EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD INTO CENTRAL KS.
WITH DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE 55-60F RANGE, A BROKEN-OVERCAST
COVERAGE OF LOW STRATUS CLOUDS IS EXPECTED FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE
PERIOD, WITH MODEST SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT PROVIDED BY THE
STRENGTHENING WARM ADVECTION REGIME CONTRIBUTING TO POCKETS OF
SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. BEGINNING LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD, A MORE
CONCENTRATED AXIS OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL
LIKELY MATERIALIZE FROM WESTERN PORTIONS OF MIDDLE TN EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD INTO WESTERN VA, WHICH IS THE REGION WHERE LOW-LEVEL
STREAMLINE CONFLUENCE WILL BE MAXIMIZED IN THE VICINITY OF A COLD
FRONT (RELATED TO THE LOW TO OUR NORTH) AND A NORTHWARD ADVANCING
MARINE WARM FRONT (RELATED TO THE LOW TO OUR WEST). AS A RESULT,
POPS WILL INCREASE FROM VALUES ~10% (THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON)
TO 40-50% (NORTH OF THE TN RIVER) AND 20-30% (SOUTH OF THE TN
RIVER) EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. REGARDING TEMPERATURES, DAYTIME
HIGHS APPEAR ON TRACK TO REACH THE M-U 60S, FOLLOWED BY MILD
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 55-60F RANGE.
SHORT TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1018 AM CST WED FEB 18 2026
LATEST SHORT RANGE MODEL DATA INDICATES THAT A MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH (EMERGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD) WILL CONTINUE TO ACQUIRE A SHARP
NEGATIVE-TILT AS IT PROGRESSES FURTHER NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL SUPPORT
GRADUAL DEEPENING OF THE RELATED SURFACE LOW AS IT LIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE MID-MS VALLEY AND EVENTUALLY INTO
SOUTHEASTERN WI BY 12Z FRIDAY. PERIODS OF BROKEN LOW STRATUS
CLOUDS AND SPORADIC LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY
TOMORROW, AS OUR REGION WILL REMAIN WITHIN A WELL-ESTABLISHED
WARM/MOIST SECTOR AIRMASS. BY LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON, CAMS
SUGGEST THAT A FEW OPEN WARM SECTOR CONVECTIVE CELLS MAY EVOLVE
ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF MS/AL, BEFORE TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD
AND POTENTIALLY BEGINNING TO IMPACT THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA
TOMORROW EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE OCCURRING WITHIN A WEAKLY
UNSTABLE BUT STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY MLCAPE
OF 200-400 J/KG AND WSW FLOW ALOFT OF 70-80 KNOTS ATOP A SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET OF 35-45 KNOTS. THUS, THERE IS A LEAST
SOME CONCERN FOR A MODEST DEGREE OF STORM ORGANIZATION INTO
MULTICELL CLUSTERS, WITH AN ATTENDANT RISK FOR CELLS PRODUCING
BRIEF STRONG WIND GUSTS UP TO 40-50 MPH. THIS GENERAL
KINEMATIC/THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL PERSIST LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT DRIFTS
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION, WITH AN INCREASE IN THE SPATIAL
CONCENTRATION OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ANTICIPATED FROM 5-11Z, AS
WELL AS A CONTINUING RISK FOR A FEW ORGANIZED CELLS.
PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE FURTHER
SOUTHEASTWARD LATE FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE STALLING ALONG AN AXIS
FROM SOUTHEASTERN TX INTO THE SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY DURING THE
AFTERNOON. LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW WILL ADVECT A DRIER AIRMASS INTO
THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO
THE 30S AND A FAIR COVERAGE OF HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. BY FRIDAY EVENING, A WEAK FRONTAL WAVE IS
PREDICTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY BEFORE TRAVELING
INTO CENTRAL AL BY 12Z SATURDAY. AS THIS OCCURS, SHALLOW LIFT WILL
STRENGTHEN NORTH OF THE FRONT, SUPPORTING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN
(AND PERHAPS SOME ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS) FROM FRIDAY EVENING INTO
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL FALL FROM THE MID
70S ON THURSDAY INTO THE LOWER 70S FRIDAY, AS OVERNIGHT LOWS FALL
FROM THE 55-60F RANGE INTO THE M-U 40S BY SATURDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1018 PM CST TUE FEB 17 2026
IT LOOKS LIKE A CLIPPER SYSTEM QUICKLY RE-ENFORCES THIS
SOUTHEASTERN PUSH OF THE FRONT FURTHER SOUTH SATURDAY EVENING.
MODELS DIFFER ON HOW MUCH MOISTURE IS LEFT OVER THE AREA AS THE
CLIPPER SYSTEM PUSHES INTO THE AREA. LEFT A 20 TO 40 PERCENT
CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST SATURDAY BEFORE MIDNIGHT. THIS MAY
BE OVERDONE IF THIS CLIPPER SYSTEM IS ON THE DRIER SPECTRUM OF
POSSIBILITIES. THE OTHER QUESTION IS HOW LONG ANY LOW CHANCE (10
TO 30 PERCENT) OF PRECIPITATION WILL LINGER AFTER MIDNIGHT. EVEN
IF THAT OCCURS (THOUGH MANY MODELS PUSH ANY PRECIPITATION EAST OF
THE AREA BY SATURDAY EVENING), THE TEMPERATURES PROFILE ALOFT
LOOKS A BIT TOO WARM FOR SNOW. HOWEVER, KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE ON
THE BACK END OF PRECIPITATION FOR A SNOW/RAIN MIX JUST IN CASE
BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 6 AM ON SUNDAY. ANY WINTRY PRECIPITATION
WOULD BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW IF IT OCCURS AND SHOULD NOT AMOUNT TO
MEASURABLE SNOWFALL.
IT WILL DEFINITELY BE COOLER ON SUNDAY WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION IN
PLACE AND SOME CLOUD COVER REDEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S OR LOWER ARE FORECAST. THINKING MODELS ARE
NOT CATCHING UP TO THE STRENGTH OF THE COLD AIR ADVECTION JUST
YET AND THUS A BIT WARM. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY LOOK EVEN
COLDER, AS COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES TO STRENGTHENS (LOW OFF
THE EASTERN SEABOARD REALLY DROPS ITS CENTRAL PRESSURE
SIGNIFICANTLY AIDING THAT PROCESS) AND A STRONG SURFACE HIGH
BUILDS SOUTH TO THE WEST OF THE AREA. LOWS LOOK TO DROP INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 20S WITH SOME WIND CHILLS IN THE UPPER TEENS WITH
BREEZY CONDITIONS.
SUNNY SKIES SHOULD HELP A LITTLE WITH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY, BUT
WITH 925 MB TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO -5 DEGREES CELSIUS, CURRENT
FORECAST HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S MAY BE A BIT WARM AS
WELL. NORTHERLY WINDS BETWEEN 5 AND 10 MPH WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 15
AND 20 MPH WILL MAKE IT FEEL COLDER TOO, ONLY IN THE 30S MOST OF
THE AFTERNOON.
CONDITIONS LOOK TO QUICKLY MODIFY ON TUESDAY AFTER ONE MORE COLD
NIGHT (LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS/LOWER 20S). HIGHS ON TUESDAY WITH
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S
AGAIN, AS SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REDEVELOPS. THIS WARMUP
SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 444 AM CST WED FEB 18 2026
CEILINGS OF 012-025AGL (MVFR) WILL PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF TODAY.
THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE THAT THEY WILL RISE TO OR ABOVE 030AGL
(VFR) BY ~01Z. ANY CHANCE OF -RA IS VERY LOW, SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED
AT THIS TIME.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...70/DD
SHORT TERM...70/DD
LONG TERM...KTW
AVIATION...17
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page