908
FXUS64 KHUN 142322
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
522 PM CST SUN DEC 14 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CST SAT DEC 14 2025
- SUB FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING.
- A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF NORTH ALABAMA
AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE FROM 6 PM THROUGH 6 AM ON
MONDAY.
- RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN TOWARDS THE MIDDLE/END OF
NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CST SUN DEC 14 2025
EARLIER CLOUD COVER HAS MOVED WELL SOUTH OF NORTHERN ALABAMA INTO
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE REGION AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES AROUND
SUNRISE IN SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE DROPPED INTO THE 15 TO 20
DEGREE RANGE. ALONG WITH WINDS BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH, WIND CHILL
VALUES DROPPED TO BETWEEN -2 AND 5 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT.
DESPITE VERY STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUING THIS AFTERNOON,
TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE LOWER 20S IN SOUTHERN MIDDLE
TENNESSEE AND THE 25 TO 30 DEGREE RANGE FURTHER SOUTH. WINDS HAVE
STARTED TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY, BUT WE COULD STILL SEE WIND GUSTS TO
AROUND 25 MPH FOR A FEW MORE HOURS SOUTH OF THE TENNESSEE RIVER.
FURTHER NORTH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH GUST UP TO 20 MPH
WILL BE MORE COMMON. TEMPERATURES MIGHT CLIMB A FEW MORE DEGREES
THE REST OF THE DAY, BUT WITH SUCH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION
FORECAST AT 925 MB, NOT EXPECTING HIGHS TO CLIMB ABOVE THE MID 20S
IN SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE. FURTHER SOUTH, HIGHS COULD REACH THE
LOWER 30S IN SOME SPOTS. WITH WINDS STILL GUSTING TO BETWEEN 15
AND 25 MPH THE MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON, IT WILL
STILL FEEL VERY COLD WITH WIND CHILLS REMAINING IN THE TEENS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
AS WE LOSE DAYTIME HEATING TOWARDS SUNSET, TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
BACK INTO THE TEENS EARLY IN THE EVENING. JUST HOW FAR THEY FALL
OVERNIGHT IS A TRICKY FORECAST. MODELS HAVE BEEN HINTING THE LAST
DAY OR SO THAT BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHIFT OVERNIGHT FROM THE NORTH
TO THE EAST AND THE SOUTHEAST TOWARDS DAYBREAK. THIS WOULD ADVECT
WARMER AIR INTO OUR CURRENT AIRMASS AND THUS MODELS HAVE TRENDED
UP A BIT WITH LOWS TONIGHT. HOWEVER, WITH SUCH LOW HIGH
TEMPERATURES, IT WON'T TAKE LONG IN THE EVENING FOR TEMPERATURES
TO FALL INTO THE TEENS, ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE.
EXPECT THEM TO PROBABLY FALL INTO THE 10 TO 15 DEGREE RANGE IN
MOST LOCATIONS (MAYBE A FEW 8 OR 9 DEGREE TEMPERATURES IN SOUTHERN
MIDDLE TN) BETWEEN 9 PM TONIGHT AND 2 AM ON MONDAY. THE SHIFT IN
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS MAY THEN PUSH TEMPERATURES VERY SLOWLY HIGHER
TOWARDS DAYBREAK. GUIDANCE DOES SHOW WINDS ALOFT AND JUST ENOUGH
MIXING CONTINUING OVER NORTHERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE
TENNESSEE THROUGH 3 AM TO KEEP WINDS AROUND 10 MPH GUSTING TO
BETWEEN 15 AND 20 MPH. WINDS SHOULD DECOUPLE AFTER THAT AND COULD
BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE RIGHT AROUND DAYBREAK ON MONDAY, BUT THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WIND SHIFT WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM
BOTTOMING OUT MORE.
THE COMBINATION OF WINDS ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING UNTIL SHORTLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT WILL KEEP THE THREAT FOR WINDS CHILLS DROPPING
BELOW 5 DEGREES IN PLACE TONIGHT. THEREFORE, A COLD WEATHER
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF OUR SOUTHERN MIDDLE
TENNESSEE AND NORTHERN ALABAMA COUNTIES FROM 6 PM TONIGHT
THROUGH 6 AM ON MONDAY.
SHORT TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CST SUN DEC 14 2025
MONDAY DOES LOOK WARMER WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE CONTINUING. WINDS
WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER. 925 MB TEMPERATURES CLIMB BACK TO BETWEEN 0
AND 5 DEGREES VIA THE AVERAGE OF MOST GUIDANCE. HIGHS WITH
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE SHOULD BE ABLE TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S AS A RESULT.
THIS WARMING PATTERN CONTINUES AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES
AHEAD OF A QUICK MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT EXTENDS SSW FROM
CENTRAL CANADA ON TUESDAY. LUCKILY, THE MAJORITY OF COLDER AIR
REMAINS WELL NORTH NEAR THE PARENT LOW OF THIS SYSTEM OVER
SOUTHERN CANADA. TUESDAY'S HIGHS SHOULD BE EVEN WARMER, CLIMBING
INTO THE LOWER 50S WITH CONTINUED SUNSHINE.
CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT ALONG
AND AHEAD OF A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AXIS THAT FORMS SOUTHEAST OF
THAT CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING EAST TOWARDS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY,
ESPECIALLY OVER MISSISSIPPI AND WESTERN TENNESSEE. AROUND DAYBREAK
ON WEDNESDAY, MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS COULD BEGIN MOVING INTO NW
ALABAMA. MOISTURE RETURN IS LIMITED AHEAD OF THIS QUICK MOVING
SYSTEM. HOWEVER, MODELS DO SQUEEZE OUT SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION
WEDNESDAY MORNING ALONG THIS PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AXIS AS IT MOVES
EAST INTO THE AREA, MAINLY OVER NW ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE
TENNESSEE. AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA, DRIER AIR IN
PLACE MAY PUT AN END TO PRECIPITATION AND MAINLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CST SUN DEC 14 2025
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT, MODELS DON'T MOVE THE STALLED PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH AXIS MUCH. AT THE SAME TIME, A STRONGER COLD FRONT DEVELOPS
AND PUSHES QUICKLY SOUTHEAST FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST EASTWARD.
BY THE MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY, IT FOCUSES STRONGER FORCING WELL
AHEAD OF IT. THE EASTERN EDGE OF THAT FORCING AND AMPLE MOISTURE
MAKE IT INTO NORTHWESTERN ALABAMA. THIS COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO
PUSH EAST DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. FAIRLY STRONG FLOW FROM THE
GULF COAST DEVELOPS VIA STRONG LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW AS WELL
DURING THE DAY INTO THE EVENING HOURS ON THURSDAY. CURRENTLY
MODELS PUSH HIGHS INTO THE LOWER 60S. THIS MAY BE A BIT UNDERDONE
THOUGH GIVEN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. FOR NOW,
KEEPING WITH GUIDANCE.
MODELS DO BUILD BETWEEN 100 AND 500 J/KG OF INSTABILITY AHEAD OF
IT THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY EVENING. STRONG SHEAR ALSO IS
IN PLACE AHEAD OF IT AS WELL. THIS WILL LIKELY SETUP THE
POSSIBILITY FOR SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. HOWEVER, HOW FAR SOUTH
THE STRONG FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM EXTENDS WILL BE A BIG DRIVER
CONCERN ANY STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. THIS PERIOD
WILL NEED TO MONITORED FOR A LOW THREAT OF THAT POTENTIAL OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION TO PUSH EAST OF THE AREA
AFTER 1 OR 2 AM ON FRIDAY.
COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA BEHIND THIS FRONT ON
FRIDAY. HIGHS WILL DROP BACK INTO THE 40 TO 50 DEGREE RANGE AND
LOWS INTO THE 30S PRIMARILY. AGAIN A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THE
REST OF THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS CLIMBING BACK INTO THE LOWER 60S BY
SUNDAY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 522 PM CST SUN DEC 14 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT BOTH
TERMINALS WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS BEGINNING TO SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT.
WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NORTHEAST IN THE MORNING AND EVENTUALLY
BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON, BUT SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR ALZ001>010-016.
TN...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR TNZ076-096-097.
NEAR TERM...KTW
SHORT TERM....KTW
LONG TERM....KTW
AVIATION...25
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