510
FXUS64 KHUN 240531
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1131 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 749 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2025
- PATCHY FOG FORECAST TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
- HIGH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY, WITH A LOW CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS (MARGINAL
RISK FROM SPC OR 1 OUT OF 5).
- COOLER TEMPERATURES MOVING IN LATE THIS WEEK (ON AND AROUND
THANKSGIVING).
NEAR TERM
(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 749 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2025
THE PRIMARY CHALLENGE FOR TONIGHT IS PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT. AT
THIS TIME, A CLEAR SKY WAS OBSERVED ON RGB IMAGERY AND OBS WITH NO
FOG BEING REPORTED LOCALLY. TEMPERATURE-DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS HAVE
NARROWED TO 4-5 DEGREES IN A FEW VALLEY LOCATIONS WHERE DRAINAGE
COOLING HAS OCCURRED. PERSISTENT LOW STRATUS DECK OVER THE LOWER
OH INTO THE LOWER MO VALLEY IS SLOWLY EXPANDING SOUTH INTO
NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL TN. HOWEVER, IT APPEARS UNLIKELY THIS
WOULD REACH OUR FORECAST AREA. THE MORE LIKELY SCENARIO IS PATCHY
VALLEY FOG DEVELOPMENT WHICH WE CURRENTLY HAVE FORECAST. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR SATELLITE AND OBS TRENDS THIS EVENING.
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 40S ARE PROJECTED.
SHORT TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 749 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2025
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IN NORTHERN NM AND
SOUTHERN CO MAKING A MOVE NORTHEAST. A PRONOUNCED UPPER JET AND
DRY SLOW WAS PUNCHING NORTHEAST THROUGH WEST TX INTO WESTERN KS,
WITH A COUPLE OF CLUSTERS OF DEEP CONVECTION IN WEST TX INTO
SOUTHERN OK. THE LOW WILL OPEN INTO A TROUGH WHICH ADVANCES INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH MONDAY, EXPANDING UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY. MONDAY WILL BE A DRY AND
MILD DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS.
BY MONDAY NIGHT, THE TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL HAVE
ADVANCED INTO MO, AR, AND LA, WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS/MCS EXPANDING WITHIN THE AXIS OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT
ASSOCIATED WITH A 40-50KT LLJ. THIS WILL ADVANCE INTO MIDDLE KY,
TN AND NORTH AL LATE MONDAY EVENING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
OF TUESDAY WITH GOOD SUPPORT ON TIMING BY MOST CAMS. BULK SHEAR
AND LOW LEVEL SRH WILL INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY. HOWEVER, FORECAST
ENSEMBLE SOUNDINGS INDICATE SURFACE-BASED CAPE WILL LIKELY NOT
REACH THIS FAR NORTHEAST UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE TUESDAY MORNING.
THUS, THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO WILL BE AN ELEVATED MCS, WITH A
RATHER LOW RISK OF DAMAGING WIND OR A TORNADO. WITH LOW TO MID
LEVEL WINDS BECOMING MORE PARALLEL WITH TIME ON TUESDAY, REPEAT
EPISODES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING AS THE AXIS OF PRECIPITATION SHIFTS EAST-SOUTHEAST. THERE
COULD BE A "BREAK" BUT NOT SURE THIS WILL BE LONG ENOUGH FOR
SIGNIFICANT DESTABILIZATION. WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE RISK OF
LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN A FEW SPOTS DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR
REPEATED EPISODES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WEDNESDAY WILL BE
A BLUSTERY DAY WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S, FOLLOWED
BY OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 32.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 749 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2025
THANKSGIVING DAY WILL FEATURE DRY AND COOLER TEMPERATURES AS AN
UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST OVER THE LOCAL AREA AND OUR FLOW
ALOFT TURNS TO THE NORTHWEST. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC WILL DIG
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST AND INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY AND
SUNNY/CLEAR SKIES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE HOLIDAY. ASIDE FROM
SLIGHTLY COLDER TEMPERATURES, IT SHOULD BE BEAUTIFUL WEATHER FOR
ANY OUTDOOR PLANS AS NORTHWEST WINDS REMAIN LIGHT. TEMPERATURES
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL DROP BELOW FREEZING SO BE SURE TO LAYER UP IF
HEADED OUTDOORS THANKSGIVING NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. DRY
CONDITIONS AND SIMILAR TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR BLACK FRIDAY
WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN CLOUDS AS MOISTURE INCREASES SLIGHTLY
FROM THE NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM SLIGHTLY OVER
THE WEEKEND AS AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
OVER THE GULF TURNS OUR FLOW BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST. LOW CHANCES
FOR RAIN WILL RETURN TO NORTHWEST AL SATURDAY AFTERNOON INCREASING
TO MEDIUM CHANCES AREA WIDE ON SUNDAY. WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
TRENDS ON THIS NEXT SYSTEM, BUT FOR NOW HEAVY RAIN LOOKS LIKE IT
WILL BE THE BIGGEST THREAT WITH NO STRONG SIGNAL FOR SEVERE STORMS
AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1132 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2025
VFR FLIGHT WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST. MID LEVEL CEILINGS
OF 060-120AGL WILL OVERSPREAD MOST OF NORTH AL AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE
TN AFTER 00Z. AT THIS TIME, THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF -SHRA AND
TSRA ENTERING NORTHWEST AL BEFORE 06Z, AND HAVE LEFT OUT OF THE
KMSL TAF THIS ISSUANCE. HOWEVER, IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN LATER
FORECASTS, THIS MAY NEED TO BE ADDED SOONER.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...17
SHORT TERM....17
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...17
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