442
FXUS64 KHUN 220446
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1146 PM CDT TUE APR 21 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 907 PM CDT TUE APR 21 2026
- AN UNSETTLED PATTERN ARRIVES FRIDAY, WITH SHOWER AND STORM
CHANCES PERSISTING THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
- WE ARE MONITORING FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SEVERE WEATHER THIS
WEEKEND; HOWEVER, NO SEVERE WEATHER IS CURRENTLY FORECAST.
- THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER NEXT MONDAY.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 907 PM CDT TUE APR 21 2026
CURRENT SATELLITE AS OF AROUND 8 PM SHOWS BANDS OF HIGH CLOUDS
LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE AREA. THESE CLOUDS ARE IN ASSOCIATION
WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY TRANSLATING
ACROSS THE GULF COAST. CLOUDS WILL REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE
NIGHT KEEPING TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES WARMER WITH LOWS ONLY
DROPPING TO THE LOW 50S.
THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE PUSHING
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WITH A MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING THROUGH
THE PLAINS AND THE MS VALLEY. THESE FEATURES WILL SUPPORT
CONTINUED SSW FLOW ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER DAY WITH TEMPERATURES
REACHING THE LOW 80S.
SHORT TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 907 PM CDT TUE APR 21 2026
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK A PATTERN SHIFT WILL DEVELOP WITH
IMPACTS ARRIVING ON FRIDAY. AT THE SURFACE, WE WILL BE SANDWICHED
BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST AND AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TO OUR WEST. THIS SET UP WILL MAINTAIN OUR DEEP SOUTHERLY
FLOW, GRADUALLY BRINGING MOISTURE FROM THE GULF INTO THE TN
VALLEY. THIS WILL KEEPS HIGHS IN THE 80S AND BRING DEW POINTS BACK
INTO THE 50S ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
ALOFT, THE BUILDING RIDGE WILL DAMPEN ALLOWING FOR A ZONAL PATTERN
TO DEVELOP BY FRIDAY. THE ZONAL FLOW WILL EASILY ALLOW THE PASSAGE
OF SEVERAL SHORTWAVES THROUGH THE TN VALLEY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE FIRST OF THESE LOOKS TO ARRIVE ON FRIDAY AND WILL MARK THE
TRANSITIONS TO A WET AND STORMY PATTERN. MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY
CONSISTENT WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE
EVENING ON FRIDAY WITH HIGH RAIN CHANCES ARRIVING OVERNIGHT.
SUFFICIENT CAPE WILL BE PRESENT TO SUPPORT GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS
HOWEVER THE WEAK NATURE OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL LEAVE US LACKING
NECESSARY SHEAR TO SUPPORT SEVERE WEATHER. THUS, STORMS FROM
FRIDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT ARE LARGELY EXPECTED TO BE
ELEVATED AND REMAIN SUBSEVERE. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS
TIMEFRAME SHOULD ANY OF THE INGREDIENT FOR SEVERE WEATHER SHOW
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE COMING DAYS.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 907 PM CDT TUE APR 21 2026
AN ACTIVE PATTERN WILL OVERTAKE THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH MUCH NEEDED
RAINFALL EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO STALL IN CENTRAL CANADA,
PLACING THE TN VALLEY IN MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
FORECAST TO PUSH INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. AS A RESULT, MEDIUM TO
HIGH CHANCES (60-80%) OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO
IMPACT THE AREA SATURDAY BEFORE DECREASING TO LOW CHANCES (30% OR
LESS) SUNDAY. WHILE SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT FORECAST WITH THESE
THUNDERSTORMS, THERE IS A LOW CHANCE SOME COULD BECOME STRONG ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS ~500-900 J/KG OF CAPE INFLUENCES THE AREA WITH
MINIMAL SHEAR AND WEAK LAPSE RATES. HOWEVER, AT THIS TIME, IT LOOKS
LIKE THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE HEAVIER RAINFALL RATES CAUSING MINIMAL
PONDING IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE. ANOTHER THING TO NOTE IS THAT THE
HEAVIER BANDS OF RAINFALL HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND EARLIER- REACHING
THE AREA VERY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY
PERIODS OF DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE DAY BETWEEN SHOWERS.
THE NEXT FEATURE OF INTEREST WILL BE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
SUBSEQUENT SFC LOW FORMING IN THE SOUTHWEST U.S. ON SUNDAY BEFORE
BEGINNING TO PUSH EASTWARD THROUGH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. AS THIS
OCCURS, THE TN VALLEY WILL BE IN A POTENTIALLY FAVORABLE AREA FOR A
LOW CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY- DURING WHICH SPC HAS
OUTLOOKED OUR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA IN A LOW RISK (15%) FOR SEVERE
WEATHER. THERE CONTINUES TO BE UNCERTAINTY IN OFFICIAL TIMING AND
THREATS DUE TO THIS EVENT BEING SEVERAL DAYS OUT AND CONTINUED MODEL
DISAGREEMENT ON THE DEPTH OF THE TROUGH/COVERAGE OF SEVERE STORMS.
HOWEVER, WE ENCOURAGE EVERYONE TO REMAIN UPDATED ON THE LATEST
FORECAST AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CDT TUE APR 21 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...RAD
SHORT TERM....RAD
LONG TERM....HC
AVIATION...26
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