236  
FXUS64 KHUN 131536  
AFDHUN  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL  
1036 AM CDT SAT APR 13 2024  
   
..NEW NEAR TERM
 
 
   
NEAR TERM
 
 
(REST OF TODAY)  
ISSUED AT 1036 AM CDT SAT APR 13 2024  
 
STRONG NW FLOW ALOFT IN PLACE OVER THE TN VALLEY WILL GRADUALLY  
WEAKEN THROUGHOUT THE DAY, AS THE AXIS OF A MID/UPPER-LEVEL  
LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. IN  
THE LOWER-LEVELS, A RIDGE WILL REMAIN POSITIONED OVER THE NORTH-  
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO FOR MUCH OF THE DAY, RESULTING IN A RELAXED  
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING (WHICH  
MAY TRANSITION TO A SLIGHTLY STRONGER SW FLOW THIS AFTERNOON AS  
THE RIDGE BEGINS TO DRIFT EASTWARD). WITH A VERY DRY TROPOSPHERIC  
COLUMN NOTED IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS, WE EXPECT ABUNDANT SUNSHINE,  
WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE L70S ATOP THE HIGHER RIDGES OF  
NORTHEAST AL/SOUTHERN TN TO THE U70S-L80S IN NORTHWEST AL.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
 
(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 223 AM CDT SAT APR 13 2024  
 
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SW WILL TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS THE  
FL PENINSULA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY YET REMAIN THE DOMINATING WEATHER  
FEATURE THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. SUNDAY, WE WILL AGAIN  
FIND OURSELVES SANDWICHED BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SE AND LOW  
PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION. ALONG THIS AXIS,  
THE CONTRACTING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN SW  
FLOW BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE. THIS WILL BE FELT ON SUNDAY  
WITH BREEZY SW WINDS WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH POSSIBLE. THE BREEZY  
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE WELCOMED AS SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE ANOTHER  
WARM DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND STEEPER  
LAPSE RATES WILL LIKELY SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF FAIR WEATHER  
CUMULUS SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH LOW POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SHOWERS  
THROUGH THE EVENING.  
 
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL CONTINUE THE WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS  
REMAINING IN THE LOW TO MID 80S EACH DAY. THE DOMINATING SURFACE  
HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRANSLATE INTO THE ATLANTIC AS A LOW PRESSURE  
SYSTEM FORMS IN THE PLAINS GIVING US A GLIMPSE AT OUR NEXT CHANCE  
FOR RAIN. AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES EAST, CLOUD COVER WILL  
INCREASE AHEAD OF IT THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON TUESDAY. TUESDAY LOOKS  
TO REMAIN DRY WITH RAIN CHANCES RAMPING UP TUESDAY NIGHT.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM
 
 
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)  
ISSUED AT 223 AM CDT SAT APR 13 2024  
 
BY SUNSET ON TUESDAY THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE  
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING OUT OF THE PLAINS  
AND INTO THE MS VALLEY. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT ON  
TUESDAY WITH BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN (40-60%) ASSOCIATED WITH THE  
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY DURING THE DAY. THERE IS  
CURRENTLY LOW CONFIDENCE IN SEEING SEVERE WEATHER WITH THIS SYSTEM  
AS THE ARRIVAL OF RAIN OVERNIGHT WILL HAVE VERY LITTLE  
INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH AND ONGOING RAIN ON WEDNESDAY MORNING  
WILL LIKELY PREVENT DAYTIME DESTABILIZATION. SHOULD THE TIMING  
SPEED UP, THERE COULD BE HIGHER CHANCES FOR STRONG TO SEVERE  
STORMS TUESDAY EVENING.  
 
A BRIEF DRY SLOT WILL BE PRESENT ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE RAIN  
CHANCES PICK BACK UP THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS A SECONDARY COLD FRONT  
MOVES THROUGH. BETTER FORCING FOR SHOWERS LOOKS TO BE TO OUR NORTH  
LEAVING US WITH A PROLONGED PERIOD OF LOW TO MEDIUM (20-50%) RAIN  
CHANCES FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON TO FRIDAY AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES  
DROP OFF FRIDAY EVENING LEAVING US WITH A CLEAR BUT COOL START TO  
THE WEEKEND.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
(12Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 550 AM CDT SAT APR 13 2024  
 
WINDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY DURING THE DAY FROM THE WEST AND  
BACK TO THE WSW AFTER SUNSET. LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL  
ALLOW FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE TAF PERIOD  
AT BOTH TERMINALS.  
 

 
   
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
AL...NONE.  
TN...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
NEAR TERM...70/DD  
SHORT TERM...RAD  
LONG TERM...RAD  
AVIATION...RAD  
 
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