057
FXUS64 KHUN 220517
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1117 PM CST WED JAN 21 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1027 PM CST WED JAN 21 2026
- MODERATE IMPACTS EXPECTED WITH A WINTER STORM FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY. THUS, A WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM
6 PM ON FRIDAY THROUGH 6 PM ON SUNDAY.
- DANGEROUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH
SINGLE DIGIT WIND CHILLS FORECAST.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TONIGHT AND THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1027 PM CST WED JAN 21 2026
LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS AS A FRONT SLOWLY PASSES THROUGH THE AREA. POPS
WILL QUICKLY DROP OFF FROM 40-90% AT 03Z TO 10-20% BY 12Z. DESPITE
THE DENSE CLOUD COVER IN PLACE, OBSERVATIONS ACROSS MS/TN TO THE
WEST ARE SHOWING LOCALLY DENSE FOG AND LOWER CEILINGS DEVELOP.
WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR THE NEED FOR A DENSE FOG ADVISORY OVER
PORTIONS OF THE AREA SHOULD THIS FOG DEVELOP FURTHER EAST. THIS
BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON
THURSDAY AND SUBSEQUENTLY LOW CHANCES (10-30%) FOR LIGHT RAIN
WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST. MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 40S, BUT SOME LOWER 50S MAY OCCUR IN
PLACES WHERE SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE IS OBSERVED IN THE AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1027 PM CST WED JAN 21 2026
OUR ATTENTION QUICKLY TURNS TO A POTENTIALLY VERY IMPACTFUL WINTER
STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL BE IMPACTING MUCH OF THE MID SOUTH,
TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS, AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THIS
WEEKEND. THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL REMAIN IN THE VICINITY OF
THE AREA ON FRIDAY (WITH LOW CHANCES (20-30%) OF RAIN IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON -- BEFORE FINALLY SHIFTING
FURTHER SOUTH AFTER SUNSET, IN RESPONSE, A MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR
MASS WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY, WITH SURFACE
TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE 20S IN MOST LOCATIONS BY 06-12Z
SATURDAY.
WITH THE COLD AIR IN PLACE, THE NEXT QUESTION THAT NEEDS TO BE
ANSWERED WILL BE THE EVOLUTION AND TRACK OF A DEEPENING UPPER-
LEVEL STORM SYSTEM OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA. THIS SYSTEM WILL TRACK
EAST AS IT PUSHES INTO TEXAS AND THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, AND A SURFACE LOW WILL FORM ALONG THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST AND TRACK ENE/NE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE DEEP
SOUTH. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM, DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ADVECT GULF
MOISTURE INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY, WITH A STRONG SUBTROPICAL
SUPPLYING MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC AS WELL.
RECENT TRENDS SUGGEST THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW TRACKING
MORE NORTH OF EAST (AND CLOSER TO NORTH ALABAMA), RESULTING IN A
WARMER VERTICAL TEMPERATURE PROFILE. SO WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR
AN ALREADY COMPLICATED FORECAST? THE COLDEST TEMPERATURE PROFILES
(THAT FAVOR SNOW) WILL LIKELY BE DISPLACED TO OUR NORTH AND WEST.
THIS IS REFLECTED IN MODEL SOUNDING GUIDANCE THAT SHOWS A
PRONOUNCED LATER OF WARMER AIR ALOFT (AS MUCH AS 3-7 DEGREES C).
THIS MEANS THAT THE PREDOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE IS TRENDING
TOWARD LIQUID WATER (WITH SOME SLEET POTENTIALLY MIXING IN IF THE
WARMER AIR IS SHALLOWER), BEGINNING JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO THE MORNING HOURS ON SATURDAY. THIS LIGHT TO MODERATE
BURST OF PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME ICE ACCRETION
ACROSS MOST OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY (POTENTIALLY BETWEEN 0.10" TO
0.25" OF AN INCH) BY 18Z SATURDAY.
AS NOTED, THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE MAY BEGIN TO GRADUALLY
WARM OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA (ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS EAST OF
I-65) ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK. SHOULD THIS OCCUR IT WOULD MITIGATE
IMPACTS AT LEAST TEMPORARILY OVER PARTS OF THE AREA. HOWEVER,
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION MAY STAY AT/BELOW FREEZING SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT, HEAVIER ICING COULD OCCUR IN
THOSE AREA AND REACH THE 0.5" TO 1.0" RANGE THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING/NIGHT. ADDITIONALLY, A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN, SLEET, AND
RAIN WILL OCCUR ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA, WITH PRECIPITATION TYPE
FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS DICTATED BY THE SURFACE TEMPERATURE. THE
UNCERTAINTIES WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM (INCLUDING OTHER
GUIDANCE THAT KEEPS SURFACE TEMPERATURES A LITTLE COLDER), STILL
GIVES US CONCERN FOR AN IMPACTFUL WINTER STORM IN SOME CAPACITY
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVE HEAVIER ICE
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MUCH MORE PRONE TO POWER OUTAGES WHICH WILL
BE A BIG CONCERN AFTER THIS EVENT WITH THE BITTER COLD AIR MOVING
IN. IT IS CRITICAL FOR EVERYONE ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TO USE
THEIR TIME WISELY DURING THE DAY THURSDAY/FRIDAY AND PREPARE FOR
THESE POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS.
PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF SUNDAY AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO
EAST AS THE SYSTEM SHIFTS EAST. HOWEVER, IMPACTS WILL BE FAR FROM
OVER AS A BITTER COLD SUBFREEZING AIR MASS WILL QUICKLY MOVE IN.
ANY LINGERING SLUSH/SLEET OR LIQUID ON AREA ROADWAYS WILL QUICKLY
FREEZE, RESULTING IN HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS. MORE ON THIS IN
THE SECTION BELOW. DUE TO OUR HIGH CONFIDENCE IN AT LEAST MINOR
TO MODERATE IMPACTS FROM WINTER WEATHER DURING THIS FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY WINDOW, A WINTER STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE
ENTIRE TENNESSEE VALLEY 00Z SATURDAY TO 00Z MONDAY.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1027 PM CST WED JAN 21 2026
IN WAKE OF THE WINTER STORM, A DANGEROUS COLD AIR MASS WILL MOVE
INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY SUNDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. OUR
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS (8
TO 13 DEGREE RANGE), WITH WIND CHILLS FALLING BELOW ZERO ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA! ANY LINGERING LIQUID ON ROADWAYS WILL QUICKLY
TURN TO BLACK ICE AND HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
WELL INTO THE DAY ON MONDAY. WHILE CLOUD COVER WILL FINALLY ERODE
DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY, STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL MAKE IT
HARD FOR TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK. THE SUN
MAY IMPROVE ROADS SOMEWHAT BY THE AFTERNOON -- BUT ANY REMAINING
SLUSH WILL QUICKLY REFREEZE AFTER SUNSET.
MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT, WITH FORECAST
TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY BETWEEN 3 TO 8 DEGREES. DEPENDING ON WHAT
THE REMAINING SNOW/ICE PACK IS, A FEW SUBZERO READINGS COULD
OCCUR ACROSS THE PLATEAU SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE. THIS TYPE OF
COLD DOESN'T OCCUR EVERY WINTER AND IT WILL BE IMPORTANT TO BE
PREPARED FOR IT. WE FINALLY CLIMB ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK DURING
THE DAY BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, BUT TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
BACK INTO THE TEENS EACH NIGHT. STILL, A MARKED IMPROVEMENT FROM
THE SINGLE DIGITS EARLIER IN THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1117 PM CST WED JAN 21 2026
IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT DUE TO VERY LOW
STRATUS AROUND 400-600 FT AND LOWER VISIBILITIES DOWN TO 1/2SM
FROM FOG. AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED DURING THE 06-12Z WINDOW,
SHOULD FOG BECOME DENSE (LESS THAN 1/4SM). CEILINGS WILL RISE TO
BETWEEN 1-2 KFT BY MID TO LATE MORNING, WITH MVFR CONDITIONS
LINGERING THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS MAY
OCCUR LATE IN THE PERIOD.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 1117 PM CST WED JAN 21 2026
HIGH RISK FOR MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES:
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER HAS INCLUDED THE ENTIRE TENNESSEE
VALLEY IN A MODERATE RISK FOR MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
BETWEEN JANUARY 29, 2026 THROUGH FEBRUARY 1, 2026. THEREFORE,
THERE IS GREATER THAN A 60% CHANCE FOR TEMPERATURES BELOW 17-20
DEGREES F DURING THIS PERIOD.
MORE INFORMATION ON THE CPC U.S. HAZARDS OUTLOOK CAN BE FOUND AT:
HTTPS://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/PREDICTIONS/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON
FOR ALZ001>010-016.
TN...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON
FOR TNZ076-096-097.
NEAR TERM...AMP
SHORT TERM....AMP
LONG TERM....AMP
AVIATION...AMP.24
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