055
FXUS64 KHUN 141134
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
634 AM CDT SAT MAR 14 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1113 PM CDT FRI MAR 13 2026
- STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ON
SUNDAY MORNING, AND A WIND ADVISORY WILL BE REQUIRED.
- THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING A HIGH CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT-EARLY MONDAY MORNING. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
(CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW
TORNADOES) ARE LIKELY.
- TEMPERATURES WILL DROP RAPIDLY BEHIND THE FRONT, RESULTING IN A
TRANSITION FROM POSTFRONTAL RAIN TO SNOW ON MONDAY MORNING. A
FEW SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING,
AND MINOR ACCUMULATIONS MAY OCCUR.
- A HARD FREEZE IS LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING (LOWS IN
THE LOWER-MID 20S AND WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS).
NEAR TERM
(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT SAT MAR 14 2026
EXPECT ANOTHER WARM LATE WINTER DAY ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY,
COURTESY OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OFF OF THE EAST COAST. LIGHT WINDS
THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT AND THROUGH A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE,
LATER SHOULD BECOME SOUTHERLY 5-10 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. WITH ONLY
A FEW PASSING HIGH CLOUDS, HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE INTO THE
MID 70S.
A NEARLY ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS WILL
BECOME MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED AS WE GO INTO TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. AN
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND ACCOMPANYING SPEED MAX APPROACHING THE
PACIFIC NW WILL IN PART RESULT IN CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. A STRONG
COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTH OF THIS POWERFUL SYSTEM WILL BRING WINDY
AND STORMY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT, AND MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES FOLLOWING WHICH IS COVERED BELOW.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1113 PM CDT FRI MAR 13 2026
AN AMPLIFYING NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH IN THE MID-LEVELS WILL DIG
SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS ON SATURDAY NIGHT,
WITH A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW EXPECTED TO SHIFT EASTWARD INTO
SOUTHWESTERN IA BY 12Z SUNDAY. AS A SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY LOW- LEVEL
JET INCREASES TO 35-45 KNOTS, NOTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
RETURN WILL BEGIN ACROSS OUR CWFA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, WITH A
RETURN OF LOW STRATUS CLOUDS AND A FEW SPRINKLES OF RAIN PRIOR TO
SUNRISE.
DURING THE PERIOD FROM SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT, THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH
WILL INTENSIFY AND TAKE ON A SHARP NEGATIVE TILT AS IT TRAVELS
CYCLONICALLY ACROSS THE MO VALLEY AND INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN GREAT
LAKES, WITH A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW TRACKING EASTWARD INTO
NORTHERN IL DURING THE DAY BEFORE TURNING NORTHEASTWARD INTO LOWER
MI SUNDAY NIGHT. A RAPIDLY CONTRACTING PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
THE WARM SECTOR WILL RESULT IN SSE WINDS QUICKLY INCREASING DURING
THE MORNING HOURS, AND A WIND ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED
(THAT COULD POTENTIALLY BE MAINTAINED IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON). OTHERWISE, IT STILL APPEARS AS IF
A QLCS WILL INITIATE ALONG THE CYCLONE'S SURGING COLD FRONT FROM
SOUTHERN IA INTO NORTHEASTERN OK BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING, WITH THIS
FEATURE EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING HOURS AS IT APPROACHES THE TN VALLEY. OUR BEST GUESS ON
TIMING AT THIS POINT IS FOR THE QLCS TO ENTER OUR CWFA IN THE 4-6Z
TIMEFRAME, AFTER WHICH POINT IT WILL ACCELERATE EASTWARD AND
SHOULD CROSS THE REGION IN 4-5 HOURS (EXITING BY 9-11Z IF NOT
SOONER). KINEMATIC AND THERMODYNAMIC CONDITIONS REMAIN ESSENTIALLY
UNCHANGED FROM WHAT HAS BEEN DESCRIBED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS,
WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 55-60F RANGE BENEATH COOLING
PROFILES ALOFT EXPECTED TO SUPPORT CAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG WITHIN AN
ENVIRONMENT OF RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING DEEP-LAYER WINDS
(HIGHLIGHTED BY 90-100 KNOT WSW FLOW IN THE MID-LEVELS AND A 50-60
KNOT LOW-LEVEL JET). THIS WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS
(PERHAPS AS HIGH AS 70-80 MPH) AND BRIEF/EMBEDDED TORNADOES AS THE
MAIN THREATS.
IN THE IMMEDIATE WAKE OF THE FRONT, LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL VEER
SHARPLY TO WNW, QUICKLY ADVECTING A COLD ARCTIC AIRMASS INTO THE
REGION, WITH TEMPS BY SUNRISE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE L-M 30S.
WITH MODELS SUGGESTING A 4-5 HOUR WINDOW OF LIGHT POSTFRONTAL
PRECIPITATION, RAIN WILL QUICKLY TRANSITION TO A RAIN-SNOW MIXTURE
(AND PERHAPS LIGHT SNOW) AS LOW-LEVEL PROFILES REMAIN SATURATED
AND DROP BELOW FREEZING ABOVE THE SURFACE. THIS REGIME WILL END
ACROSS OUR EASTERN COUNTIES BY MID-MORNING MONDAY, BUT WITH
SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT EXPECTED TO REMAIN STRONG UNTIL THE PASSAGE OF
A MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MONDAY AFTERNOON, A FEW CONVECTIVE SNOW
SHOWERS MAY OCCUR (EVEN AS CLOUDS BASES BEGIN TO RISE ABOVE 2-3
KFT). WITH LOW-LEVEL STREAMLINES FAVORABLY ORIENTED FOR OROGRAPHIC
ASCENT, SNOW SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE INTO MONDAY EVENING
(PARTICULARLY IN NORTHEAST AL/SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN). IT SHOULD BE
NOTED THAT PROBABILITIES FOR AT LEAST MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW
HAVE INCREASED A BIT WITH THE MOST RECENT SUITE OF GUIDANCE, AS
HIGHS IN THE L-M 40S MAY BE SEVERAL DEGREES TOO WARM GIVEN
STRENGTH OF CAA AND ANTICIPATED CLOUD COVER. A HARD FREEZE (WITH
LOWS IN THE L-M 20S) STILL APPEARS LIKELY ON MONDAY NIGHT, AND
WITH AT LEAST SOME WIND, APPARENT TEMPS ON TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE
IN THE TEENS.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1113 PM CDT FRI MAR 13 2026
AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF HIGHLY IMPACTFUL WEATHER AT THE BEGINNING
OF THE WEEK, CONDITIONS WILL SETTLE DOWN DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIOD AS A STRENGTHENING SUBTROPICAL HIGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
CONUS GRADUALLY EXPANDS EASTWARD. THIS WILL OCCUR AS A REMNANT
ARCTIC SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE TN VALLEY ON TUESDAY,
BEFORE EVOLVING INTO A LENGTHY SURFACE RIDGE (POSITIONED TO OUR
IMMEDIATE SOUTH/EAST) FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. THE ONLY
MEANINGFUL CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO BE ON TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY AS OUR REGION MAY BE CLIPPED BY THE SOUTHERN EDGE
OF A WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION BAND SHIFTING EASTWARD FROM THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY.
HOWEVER, PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THIS MAY NOT REACH OUR CWFA
AT ALL AND REMAIN CONFINED TO OUR NORTH. A WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH HIGHS RISING FROM THE L-M 40S ON
TUESDAY INTO THE L-M 70S BY FRIDAY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 634 AM CDT SAT MAR 14 2026
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE TAF. LIGHT WINDS EARLY
SHOULD BECOME SE-S AT 5-10KT FROM THE LATE MORNING INTO THE
EVENING. ONLY A FEW TO SCATTERED PASSING HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED.
A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM THE INTENSIFICATION OF A STORM
SYSTEM TO OUR WEST WILL PRODUCE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT, ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE LOWER-LEVEL WIND SHEAR. HAD ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO ADD IT
LATE IN THE TAF FOR KMSL.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...RSB
SHORT TERM....70/DD
LONG TERM....70/DD
AVIATION...RSB
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