323
FXUS64 KHUN 141029
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
529 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 738 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2026
- LOW CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. A
FEW COULD BE STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
- ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST
SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH A RISK OF STRONG GUSTY OUTFLOW WIND
GUSTS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL/FLOODING.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 100 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2026
CONVECTION FROM EARLIER IN THE DAY HAS WANED WITH JUST LINGERING
STRATIFORM RAIN WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER NOTED ON RADAR. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING, BEFORE
DISSIPATING AFTER SUNRISE. LINGERING CLOUD COVER WILL DISSIPATE BY
LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON, WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE MID/UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES BY
THE AFTERNOON. EARLIER CONVECTION HAS LAID OUT A MESOSCALE
BOUNDARY THAT WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION ON
SUNDAY AS A MID/UPPER TROUGH ALSO SWINGS A STRONGER FRONT THROUGH
THE REGION. A SLIGHTLY MORE UNSTABLE STORM ENVIRONMENT
(SBCAPE/MLCAPE AROUND 2000-3000 J/KG) AND A SIMILAR SHEAR PROFILE
(BULK SHEAR ~ 30 KTS) WILL AGAIN FAVOR STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE
STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING TIMEFRAME. DAMAGING
WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS, BUT
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL MAY ALSO BE A CONCERN GIVEN LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AROUND 7.5 C/KM. THESE STORMS WILL SHIFT NW TO SE THROUGH
THE REGION WITH THE FRONT BEFORE TAPERING OFF DURING THE LATE
EVENING HOURS.
SHORT TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 738 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2026
IN WAKE OF THE STORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, A CLEARING
TREND WILL OCCUR SUNDAY NIGHT AND WITH CALM CONDITIONS AND A
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER, PATCHY FOG MAY RETURN TO THE FORECAST.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FAVOR THE FRONT PUSHING COMPLETELY SOUTH OF
THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT, DROPPING POPS CONSIDERABLY FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY FROM JUST 24-48 HOURS AGO. STILL, THINK THAT SOME LOW
CHANCES (10-30%) FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE
FORECAST -- WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES BEING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
TENNESSEE RIVER. THE MAIN STORY FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE THE
MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES AS HIGHS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S IN THIS COOLER, DRIER POST FRONTAL AIR MASS. THUS, IT
WILL FEEL MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE THAT IT HAS OF LATE EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 738 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2026
AS A LARGE, UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS MOVES EASTWARD AND
FLATTENS, MAINLY ZONAL FLOW WILL TAKE HOLD OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.
THIS APPEARS TO CHANGE COME THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, WITH SOME GLOBAL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THAT A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES WILL TRAVERSE THE
SOUTHEAST. AT THE SURFACE, A BOUNDARY LOOKS TO STALL OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST BY MIDWEEK AND LARGELY PERSIST OVER THIS REGION
INTO LATE WEEK. MEANWHILE, A COLD FRONT IS SHOWN TO APPROACH THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY ON THURSDAY, WITH FROPA SOMETIME ON FRIDAY. OVERALL,
EXPECT A DRY TUESDAY, FOLLOWED BY A LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES (20-40%)
OF DIURNALLY-DRIVEN STORMS ON WEDNESDAY. AFTER A BRIEF RESPITE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES (60-80%) OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS ARE FORECAST THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. AFTER FROPA ON FRIDAY,
SHOWER/STORM CHANCES THEN DECREASE BY SATURDAY.
GUIDANCE INDICATES SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY,
BUT WITH LOWER BULK SHEAR ON THURSDAY COMPARED WITH FRIDAY.
THEREFORE, WHILE THE STRONG TO SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL IS UNCERTAIN,
WE CAN'T RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL COMPLETELY (ESPECIALLY THIS TIME OF
YEAR). WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE
WEEK. HOWEVER, THERE APPEARS TO BE SIGNALS FOR HEAVY RAIN AND A
CONCERN FOR FLOODING BY LATE WEEK. PWATS INCREASE FROM AROUND 1.7
INCHES ON THURSDAY TO OVER 2 INCHES THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY.
KEEP IN MIND THAT PWATS OVER 2 INCHES ARE WELL ABOVE THE 90TH
PERCENTILE WHEN TAKING INTO ACCOUNT BMX SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY, SO
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS. IN ADDITION,
EVEN WITH A BRIEF "DRIER" PERIOD EARLY IN THE WEEK, ANTECEDENT
CONDITIONS ARE VERY SATURATED (THE GROUND IS VERY WET FROM RECENT
RAINFALL). THUS, THESE CONDITIONS, IN ADDITION TO EVEN SUB-SEVERE
WINDS, MAY RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN DOWNED TREES. OVERALL, PLEASE
STAY WEATHER AWARE THIS WEEK, ESPECIALLY IF YOU HAVE OUTDOOR PLANS,
AND CHECK BACK FOR UPDATES!
LASTLY, FOR TEMPERATURES, EXPECT HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 80S FROM MID
TO LATE WEEK. ALTHOUGH, IT'LL BE A BIT COOLER ON FRIDAY DUE TO
INCREASED RAIN/STORM CHANCES. LOWS WILL INCREASE TO BE IN THE LOWER
70S BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT DUE TO INCREASED MOISTURE, BUT ARE THEN
FORECAST TO BE COOLER (IN THE 60S) BY FRIDAY NIGHT WITH FROPA.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 529 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2026
CLUSTERS OF SHRA AND TSRA WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS,
BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS BY MIDDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON. EXACT TIMING
IS DIFFICULT AT THIS POINT, SO HAVE OPTED FOR VCSH WITH PROB30
GROUPS FROM 16-24Z. CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR EXCEPT IN AND NEAR TSRA
WHEN CEILINGS SHOULD DROP BELOW 030AGL (MVFR) WITH LOWERED
VISIBILITY IN EITHER MODERATE TO HEAVY RA. A COLD FRONT WILL
SHIFT WINDS FROM WEST-SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST BY 02-04Z. PATCHY
LOWER CEILINGS BELOW 025AGL (MVFR) ARE INDICATED AFTER 02Z.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...AMP
SHORT TERM....AMP
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...17
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