107
FXUS64 KHUN 092349
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
649 PM CDT FRI MAY 9 2025
..NEW AVIATION
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1146 AM CDT FRI MAY 9 2025
A COLD FRONT WAS IN THE PROCESS OF MOVING IN A NORTH TO SOUTH
MANNER ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. PER A SATELLITE VIEW AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS, THIS BOUNDARY WAS ORIENTED IN A WEST TO
EAST MANNER JUST SOUTH OF THE TENNESSEE AND ALABAMA BORDER. WITH
MAINLY PASSING HIGH CLOUDS SOUTH OF THAT BOUNDARY, THE 11 AM AIR
TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE LOW/MID 70S OVER ALABAMA AND IN THE 60S
IN TENNESSEE. JUST NORTH OF THE COLD FRONT, BROKEN TO OVERCAST
SKIES PRODUCED BY LOW CLOUDS WERE MOVING SOUTHWARD.
RECENT NBM UPDATES HAVE TRENDED DRIER, SO WILL STAY THAT WAY FOR
THIS AFTERNOON. BIGGER ISSUES WOULD BE IN THE AVIATION AREA, WITH
INCOMING STRATUS PRODUCING MVFR CEILINGS (1000-3000 FT AGL CLOUD
BASES). DAYTIME HEATING AND MORE MIXING SHOULD RESULT IN CLOUD
BASES RISING AS THEY DRIFT SOUTHWARD. THE PRESENCE OF THE CLOUDS
SHOULD RESULT IN COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES MORE TO THE NORTH,
ESPECIALLY IN TENNESSEE. HIGHS LATER THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 60S/NEAR 70 NORTH, TO NEAR 80 SOUTH OF THE
TENNESSEE RIVER.
AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL FORM INTO
A CLOSED OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE DEEP SOUTH THIS EVENING INTO
SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN GENERALLY CLOUDY SKIES TONIGHT, WITH
LOWS IN THE 50S.
SHORT TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1146 AM CDT FRI MAY 9 2025
A WET ENDING TO THE WEEK IS EXPECTED SATURDAY, AS THE ABOVE NOTED
UPPER LOW HELPS DRAW DEEPER MOISTURE ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NOW FORMING OVER THE NW GULF, SHOULD MOVE
ENE AND BE SITUATED OVER COASTAL LA/MS AT DAYBREAK SATURDAY. THE
LOW SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AL/MS COAST INTO SUNDAY, THEN IT
SHOULD MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH DURING MONDAY. THIS
DEVELOPING SYSTEM WILL HELP SPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH AS THE DAY PROGRESSES TOMORROW. THE CLOUDS AND
DECENT RAIN CHANCES WILL RESULT IN HIGHS A BIT COOL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR, STRUGGLING TO AROUND 70 SATURDAY. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH HIGHS INTO THE LOW/MID 70S.
ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND DAYTIME HEATING COULD BRING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MIXED WITH MORE PREVALENT SHOWERS DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS OF SAT/SUN/MON.
RAINFALL TOTALS FOR THE PERIOD SHOULD RANGE FROM 1-2 INCHES.
LOCATIONS MAINLY SOUTH OF THE TENNESSEE RIVER AND EAST OF I-65
SHOULD RECEIVE THE HIGHER AMOUNTS, WITH SOMEWHAT LESSER AMOUNTS
MORE TO THE NORTH. AM NOT EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGICAL
CONCERNS AT THIS MOMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM. BUT A RISK FOR HEAVY
DOWNPOURS PRODUCING RUNOFF ISSUES AND MINOR FLOODING IN PRONE
AREAS.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1110 PM CDT THU MAY 8 2025
RAIN CHANCES SHOULD LOWER SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. WE START
TO SEE A REX BLOCK SETUP OVER THE EAST COAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE SURFACE LOW MOVES NORTH BUT GETS CAUGHT BETWEEN THE TWO RIDGE
AXES SETTING UP ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AREA ALOFT.
THE END RESULT WILL BE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAINY AND POSSIBLY
STORMY CONDITIONS AT TIMES INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK (MAYBE
THROUGH THURSDAY). WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR A DEVELOPING FLOODING
RISK AS WE MOVE INTO NEXT WEEK. SOME HIGHER SHEAR MOVES INTO THE
AREAS NEAR AND EAST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE
SURFACE/UPPER LOW MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AMPLE INSTABILITY
LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE FOR SOME PERIODS OF STRONG TO MAYBE SEVERE
WEATHER AT TIMES DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. IT WILL
BE COOLER DUE TO THE PERSISTENT/WET PATTERN EXPECTED. HIGHS WILL
REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S MOSTLY DURING THIS PERIOD.
CURRENT NBM WARMS THINGS UP AND DRIES US OUT AS EARLY AS
WEDNESDAY. THINK THIS IS A BIT OPTIMISTIC, BUT LEFT IT FOR NOW.
TYPICALLY, REX BLOCK PATTERNS DO NOT BREAK UP THAT QUICKLY.
BY THURSDAY THOUGH, STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DOES LOOK TO BUILD
OVER THE SOUTHEAST IN MOST GUIDANCE. THIS LOOKS A BIT MORE
REASONABLE FOR US TO TRULY DRY OUT. HIGHS SHOULD REBOUND BACK
INTO THE 83 TO 88 DEGREE RANGE WITH SUNNY SKIES RETURNING.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 649 PM CDT FRI MAY 9 2025
ON AND OFF MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE OVER THE TERMINALS TONIGHT.
HOWEVER, THEY SHOULD REMAIN VFR. EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER, BUT REMAIN
VFR AFTER DAYBREAK. WINDS WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KNOTS
TONIGHT WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE. THIS WILL KEEP FOG AT BAY
DESPITE SOME CLEAR SKIES AT TIMES. LOWER CHANCES OF RAIN WILL
APPROACH BOTH TERMINALS AROUND OR JUST AFTER NOON. ONLY INCLUDED
PROB30 GROUPS AS FAR NORTH AS THE TERMINALS, BUT DID INCLUDE THE
POSSIBILITY OF MVFR CIGS OR VSBYS AT TIMES WITH -RA. A MORE
DEFINITE PERIOD OF RAIN SHOULD BEGIN AT BOTH TERMINALS AROUND 20Z
OR 21Z. EXPECT PERSISTENT RA AND MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS THROUGH 24Z.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...RSB
SHORT TERM....RSB
LONG TERM....KTW
AVIATION...KTW
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