485
FXUS64 KHUN 172343
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
643 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1058 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2026
- VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TODAY, WITH HIGHS REACHING
THE UPPER 80S IN MOST LOCATIONS. THESE VALUES WILL COME WITHIN
A COUPLE DEGREES OF RECORD VALUES FOR APRIL 17TH.
- THERE IS A HIGH (80-90%) CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE
GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.
- A COOL/DRY AIRMASS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION SUNDAY AND
MONDAY, FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THURSDAY.
NEAR TERM
(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2026
NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE DURING THE AFTERNOON UPDATE. KMSL
CURRENTLY SITS WITH THE WARMEST TEMP ACROSS THE AREA AT 88
DEGREES. INCREASE IN DIURNAL CU MAY KEEP TEMPS FROM REACHING THE
90 DEGREE MARK ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON,
BUT WE WILL MONITOR OBS FOR ANY RECORD BREAKING/TYING
TEMPERATURES. OTHERWISE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION REMAINS ON TRACK.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS TODAY AS CLEAR SKIES
HAVE PREVAILED THIS MORNING. THE MAIN CONCERN TODAY WILL BE THE
HEAT AS AFTERNOON TEMPS REACH THE UPPER 80S TO PERHAPS EVEN LOWER
90S IN SOME LOCATIONS. THESE TEMPS MAY BECOME WITHIN A COUPLE
DEGREES OF RECORD HIGH VALUES FOR APRIL 17TH (90 DEGREES AT HSV
AND 92 DEGREES AT MSL, BOTH IN 2006). MUCH MORE ACTIVE WEATHER
WILL BE LOCATED TO OUR NORTHWEST TODAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
MIDWEST. THIS FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE THROUGH THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY THIS WEEKEND.
DRIER AIR AND INCREASING WINDS WILL KEEP FOG AT BAY OVERNIGHT,
WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S AND INCREASING CLOUDS FROM
WEST TO EAST.
SHORT TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1058 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2026
THE MAIN FOCUS DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE A COLD FRONT
PASSAGE THAT WILL BRING RAIN AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA
LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE MAIN UPPER LOW LOCATED ACROSS
CENTRAL ONTARIO WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL RACE THROUGH THE LOWER OH RIVER VALLEY AND
INTO THE TN VALLEY DURING THE EVENING. THE OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER
RISK REMAINS VERY LOW FOR OUR AREA AS THE BETTER DYNAMICS WILL BE
ROOTED CLOSER TO THE LOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OH VALLEY. THAT
BEING SAID, THERE WILL BE ENOUGH SHEAR AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH TO SUPPORT SOME THUNDERSTORMS AND A RISK FOR GUSTY WINDS.
WARM AIR ALOFT (CAPPING) IS DEPICTED IN FORECAST GUIDANCE,
HOWEVER THE STRENGTH OF THE CAPPING INVERSION REMAINS OF LOWER
CONFIDENCE. ANY TRENDS THAT RESULT IN LESS CAPPING AND MORE
INSTABILITY WOULD LEAD TO A HIGHER RISK OF A STRONG STORM OR TWO.
WHILE THE RAIN WE SEE FROM THIS SYSTEM WON'T BE ENOUGH TO BUST
THE DROUGHT, THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE TRENDED
SLIGHTLY HIGHER OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE CURRENT FORECAST
RANGES FROM 0.6-1.2" WEST OF I-65 AND 0.4-0.6" EAST. VERY DRY SOIL
CONDITIONS SHOULD MITIGATE ANY FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS BUT PLEASE
USE CAUTION IF DRIVING AS ROADWAYS WILL STILL BE SLICK.
RAINFALL WILL COME TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST SUNDAY MORNING AS
HIGH PRESSURE USHERS IN DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS. AFTERNOON
HIGHS WILL BE ABOUT 20 DEGREES COOLER ON SUNDAY, TOPPING OUT IN
THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1017 PM CDT THU APR 16 2026
AS AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD, UPPER
RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION AND LARGELY MAINTAIN ITS HOLD
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. ALTHOUGH, SOME
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A FEW SUBTLE SHORTWAVES WILL FORM OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND PROGRESS DOWN INTO THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY. AT THIS TIME, IT DOESN'T LOOK LIKE THESE WILL
BRING TOO MUCH IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.
MEANWHILE, AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE THEME OVER
MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS EARLY IN THE WEEK. THIS FEATURE LOOKS TO
EVENTUALLY SHIFT TO BE CONCENTRATED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES
AND OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS. THEREFORE, OTHER THAN PERHAPS
AN INCREASE IN SOME CLOUDS AROUND MIDWEEK, NO RAIN IS FORECAST
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. ADDITIONALLY, A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
TEMPERATURES IS ANTICIPATED DURING THIS TIME. HIGHS ON MONDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE MILD, IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
LOWS THAT NIGHT WILL THEN DIP INTO THE 40S. HOWEVER, LOWS ARE
FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE 50S BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGHS
REACHING THE LOWER 80S BY THURSDAY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 643 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2026
VFR CONDITIONS AND MORE SOUTHERLY WINDS BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. BY 17Z AT KMSL AND 18Z
AT KHSV, EXPECT CIGS AROUND 5000 FEET TO BE IN PLACE. WINDS SHOULD
PICK UP TO AROUND 10 KNOTS GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KNOTS AFTER 15Z
AND BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY. SOME -RA WAS ADDED TO ACCOUNT FOR POSSIBLE
PRECIPITATION AFTER 20Z AT KMSL AND 22Z AT KHSV.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...25
SHORT TERM....25
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...KTW
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