553
FXUS64 KHUN 051006
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
406 AM CST FRI DEC 5 2025
..NEW NEAR TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1047 AM CST THU DEC 4 2025
- PERIODS OF MAINLY LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE WILL LINGER SHORTLY
AFTER DAYBREAK. THEN REMAINING COLD AND CLOUDY WITH HIGHS ONLY
IN THE 40 TO 45 DEGREE RANGE.
- FOG DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AND
AGAIN SATURDAY. THIS FOG COULD BECOME DENSE AND COULD FREEZE IN
SOME AREAS OF NW ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE.
- LOW CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION MAY RETURN TO THE FORECAST ON
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 406 AM CST FRI DEC 5 2025
STRATIFORM RAIN INITIATED BY ELEVATED WARM ADVECTION (TO THE
NORTH OF A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF) HAS
ENDED ACROSS THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER, LINGERING POCKETS
OF LIGHT DRIZZLE AND MIST PERSIST IN PORTIONS OF THE REGION, BUT
THIS REGIME SHOULD PROGRESSIVELY END FROM NW-TO-SE BY 12-14Z AS
10-20 KNOT WSW FLOW AT THE 850-MB LEVEL VEERS TO WNW. ALTHOUGH
DEWPOINTS ACROSS OUR NW AL COUNTIES MAY CREEP TO 32F OR BELOW
PRIOR TO SUNRISE, SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST A SATURATED LOW-
LEVEL AIRMASS WITH TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING.
THUS, THE MOST SIGNIFICANT LINGERING IMPACT WILL BE VISIBILITY
REDUCTIONS, WHICH SHOULD RANGE FROM 2-4 MILES IN LOWER ELEVATIONS
TO PERHAPS LESS THAN ONE-QUARTER OF A MILE IN ELEVATED TERRAIN
(GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF A VERY LOW STRATUS LAYER).
AS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY, THERE IS GROWING CONSENSUS AMONG
NEAR TERM MODEL SOLUTIONS THAT LOW STRATUS CLOUDS WILL BE VERY
SLOW TO DISSIPATE (IF THIS EVEN OCCURS AT ALL PRIOR TO 0Z). THIS,
ALONG WITH A LIGHT NNW WIND, WILL LEAD TO A RATHER COOL DAY,
FEATURING HIGHS IN THE L-M 40S.
SHORT TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1047 PM CST THU DEC 4 2025
TONIGHT WILL LIKELY BE A BETTER SETUP FOR MORE AT LEAST PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NORTHERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE.
AS WINDS DECOUPLE WITH A SURFACE HIGH BUILDING OVER THE AREA,
WINDS WILL BE VERY LIGHT. LUCKILY, MOST GUIDANCE STILL HOLDS
MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY CONDITIONS IN PLACE THOUGH. THIS SHOULD
MITIGATE THE FOG THREAT SOME. WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME
PATCHY DENSE FOG, BUT WIDESPREAD FOG (ESPECIALLY DENSE) MAY BE
HARD TO GET WITH SUCH PREDOMINANT CLOUD COVER. FOR NOW INCLUDED
PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG, BUT NO DENSE FOG. THIS MAY NEED TO BE
CHANGED IF FORECAST CONDITIONS WARRANT. MOST AREAS SHOULD NOT SEE
TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO 32 DEGREES OR BELOW. HOWEVER, A FEW
LOCATIONS IN NW ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE MAY AROUND
DAYBREAK ON SATURDAY, SO A BIT OF FREEZING FOG COULD BE POSSIBLE.
LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S ARE EXPECTED.
ZONAL FLOW AND NEUTRAL TO WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION MAINLY SETS UP
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. WE MAY FINALLY SEE SOME SUNSHINE AGAIN
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON SATURDAY. THIS INSOLATION AND WEAK
WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOULD ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB BACK
INTO THE 45 TO 50 DEGREE RANGE MAINLY.
BY SATURDAY NIGHT, ANOTHER LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS BEGINS TO SWING
SOUTHEAST FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AREA TOWARDS THE OHIO
VALLEY. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING SOME CLOUD COVER BACK INTO THE
AREA IN THE EVENING HOURS AND MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS BACK INTO
THE AREA BY DAYBREAK ON SUNDAY. STRONGER FORCING AND BETTER
MOISTURE ADVECTION POOLS OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY. LOWS DON'T LOOK
TO CHANGE MUCH AND SHOULD STAY IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1047 PM CST THU DEC 4 2025
AS THIS LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS PUSHES EAST AND AN ATTENDANT COLD
FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA, SOME LIGHT SHOWERS WILL LIKELY RETURN
TO THE FORECAST. EXPECT THE BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN WILL BE
MAINLY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS LONGWAVE TROUGH
AXIS MOVES THROUGH NORTHERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE.
THIS SHOULD USHER IN SOME COOLER AIR AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK AFTER
ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1213 AM CST FRI DEC 5 2025
MVFR TO IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD. SOME -RA
AROUND 6Z WILL LIKELY BECOME LIGHT DZ AT KHSV AROUND 8Z OR 9Z.
EXPECT SOME LIGHT DZ AT KMSL AFTER 06Z THROUGH 13Z. A TEMPO FOR
VSBYS DROPPING TO 2SM WAS INCLUDED BETWEEN 9Z AND 13Z AT KHSV AND
7Z TO 11Z AT KMSL. CIGS SHOULD BECOME MVFR AFTER 13Z AT KMSL AND
AFTER 15Z AT KHSV.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...70/DD
SHORT TERM...KTW
LONG TERM...KTW
AVIATION...KTW
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