325
FXUS64 KHUN 071647
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1047 AM CST WED JAN 7 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1033 AM CST WED JAN 7 2026
- ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK.
- GUSTY WINDS WILL ARRIVE ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
FRONT WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH FORECAST.
- HIGH RAIN CHANCES WILL BE PRESENT FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
A RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING AND A LOW RISK FOR SOME SEVERE
WEATHER.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1033 AM CST WED JAN 7 2026
DENSE FOG THIS MORNING HAS BEEN SLOW TO ERODE TODAY WITH A FEW
SITES AS OF 10AM STILL SHOWING VISIBILITIES AROUND 1/4 MILE. AS A
RESULT THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY WAS EXTENDED UNTIL 11AM. BASED ON
CURRENT IMPROVEMENT TRENDS ANY REMAINING FOG SHOULD MIX OUT BY
LUNCHTIME. WHILE THERE IS SOME POCKETS OF LOW STRATUS MOVING
THROUGH THIS MORNING, BY THIS AFTERNOON BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER
WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SUNSHINE. OVERALL A MILD DAY FOR EARLY JANUARY
WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. THIS IS 10-15
DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
BY TONIGHT, WE REMAIN MILD WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS ONLY DROPPING INTO
THE LOWER 50S. SOME MID TO HIGH LEVELS CLOUDS ARE FORECAST
OVERNIGHT WHICH MAY LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG. HOWEVER, ANY
BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR DENSE FOG. THEREFORE, WITH THE MORNING UPDATE HAVE
ADDED A LOW CHANCE FOR FOG IN OUR TYPICAL FOG PRONE AREAS IN THE
SHELTERED VALLEYS AND ALONG AREA BODIES OF WATER. BIGGEST IMPACT
WILL BE A REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY.
SHORT TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1033 AM CST WED JAN 7 2026
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN SETS UP AS WE HEAD INTO THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST PERIOD. A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS IN ACROSS
THE WESTERN US BEFORE EJECTING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND INTO THE TN/MS RIVER VALLEYS BY FRIDAY. AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM, WARM AND MOIST AIR WILL ADVECT IN FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST.
AFTERNOON HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL ONCE AGAIN RISE INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 60S WITH A FEW LOCATIONS REACHING THE LOWER 70S.
BOTTOM LINE UP FRONT: FRIDAY WILL BRING AN ACTIVE WEATHER SETUP
ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. BOTH SEVERE WEATHER AND HYDRO
CONCERNS APPEAR LIKELY COMBINED WITH GUSTY GRADIENT WINDS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
LOOKING AT THE DETAILS, A SFC LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE
NORTH AND EAST WITH A COLD FRONT LOCATED TO IT SOUTH AND WEST. A
SECONDARY LOW WILL DEVELOP FURTHER TO THE SOUTH (NEAR OK/AR) WITH
A WARM FRONT POSITIONED TO IT EAST. IN RESPONSE TO THIS LOW, THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ALLOWING FOR
WINDS TO GUST BETWEEN 20-25 MPH AT TIMES THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON
FRIDAY. AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THIS WILL BRING THE FIRST
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY MORNING.
BY THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS, HIGH CHANCES (90-100%) FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE LIKELY WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR
FLOODING AND SEVERE WEATHER BEING DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. PRECIP
WILL CONTINUE UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD
FRONT.
OUR MOST CONFIDENT IMPACT FOR THIS SYSTEM IS FOR THE PROLONGED
HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT LEADING TO FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS. LREF
GUIDANCE SHOWS AREAWIDE MEAN BETWEEN 2.5-3 INCHES WITH THE 90TH
PERCENTILE 3.5-4.5 INCHES. THE HIGH END EVENT WILL MOST CERTAINLY
RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING AS WELL AS RISES ALONG AREA RIVERS.
REMEMBER, IF YOU ENCOUNTER A FLOODED ROADWAY, TURN AROUND, DON'T
DROWN!
THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IS A BIT MORE TRICKY OF A FORECAST.
WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF RAINFALL EXPECTED, THIS COULD REDUCE THE
SEVERE RISK FOR OUR AREA. THAT BEING SAID SPC DID INCLUDE AREAS
ALONG AND WEST OF I-65 IN A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OUT OF 5). SHEAR
PARAMETERS ARE SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE STORMS INCLUDING A LOW END
POTENTIAL OF TORNADOES, HOWEVER, THERE IS A LARGE AMOUNT OF
UNCERTAINTY IN THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY. THIS WILL BE SOMETHING
TO WATCH OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 825 PM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
THE AFORMENTIONED FRONT LOOKS TO PUSH THROUGH SATURDAY DURING THE
DAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS ARRIVING FROM THE NW THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING. THROUGH THE LONG TERM, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS PLACING US IN A NW FLOW REGIME THROUGH MID WEEK.
THIS WILL WORK TO USHER IN COOLER AND DRIER AIR WHICH WILL BE FELT
IMMEDIATELY ON SUNDAY MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE MID 30S. WITHOUT
ANY SIGNIFICANT AIRMASS CHANGE, THE COOLER TEMPS WILL REMAIN
THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S TO 50S AND LOWS IN THE
20S TO 30S.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1048 AM CST WED JAN 7 2026
AT THE START OF THE TAF PERIOD, LOW LEVEL STRATUS RESULTING IN
MVFR CEILINGS. THESE WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE BACK TO VFR LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT, THERE IS A LOW POTENTIAL FOR FOG, BUT GIVEN
LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME HAVE NOT INCLUDED ANY VISIBILITY
REDUCTIONS IN THIS FORECAST. MVFR CEILINGS RETURN TOMORROW MORNING
WITH WIND GUSTS OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST INCREASING TO 15-20 KNOTS.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR ALZ001>010-
016.
TN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR TNZ076-096-
097.
NEAR TERM...GH
SHORT TERM....GH
LONG TERM....RAD
AVIATION...GH
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