580
FXUS64 KHUN 211541
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1041 AM CDT TUE APR 21 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1041 AM CDT TUE APR 21 2026
- AN UNSETTLED PATTERN ARRIVES FRIDAY, WITH SHOWER AND STORM
CHANCES PERSISTING THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
- WE ARE MONITORING FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SEVERE WEATHER THIS
WEEKEND; HOWEVER, NO SEVERE WEATHER IS CURRENTLY FORECAST.
- THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER NEXT MONDAY.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1041 AM CDT TUE APR 21 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THAT BROUGHT COOLER CONDITIONS TO THE AREA
THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS HAS SHIFTED MORE TO EAST, NOW CENTERED
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. A SE FLOW ROUNDING THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE HIGH WILL RETURN ACROSS THE AREA. AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING
FURTHER OFF OF THE EAST COAST WILL RESULT IN AN ALMOST ZONAL UPPER
LEVEL FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS FOR THE UPCOMING MID
WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY OVER NE
TEXAS WILL HEAD TO THE ESE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SCATTERED TO AT
TIMES NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WERE IN PROGRESS OVER THE
EASTERN THIRD OF TEXAS. AN AREA OF HIGH ALTITUDE CLOUDS PRECEDING
THE SYSTEM WERE BEGINNING TO OVERSPREAD THIS REGION.
WITH RISING HEIGHT/THICKNESS VALUES AND GENERALLY STRONG SOLAR
INSOLATION; THIS SHOULD PRODUCE EVEN WARMER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE TO AROUND 80
(UPPER 70S EAST TO LOWER 80S WEST), WITH SE WINDS OF 5-15 MPH.
SKIES SHOULD BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY AS WE GO INTO THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS THE UPPER SYSTEM NEARS FROM THE WEST. UNDER PARTLY TO
AT TIMES MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES, A SOMEWHAT MILDER NIGHT IS EXPECTED,
WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE LOW/MID 50S WITH LIGHT WINDS.
SHORT TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1041 AM CDT TUE APR 21 2026
THE SYSTEM OVER TEXAS SHOULD HEAD TOWARDS COASTAL AL/FL TOWARDS
THURSDAY. SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN WELL TO
OUR SOUTH AND WEST. THUS DRY WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AND
ON THURSDAY, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH DAYS INTO THE LOWER 80S.
LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE LOW/MID 50S. DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
GRADUALLY BRING HIGHER AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE FROM THE GULF TO THE
AREA.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 859 PM CDT MON APR 20 2026
AN ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER IS FORECAST DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD
BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL TO THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY. THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BREAKS DOWN
LEAVING A MORE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. AS A SFC
LOW ACROSS THE DAKOTAS SLOWLY MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST, AN
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST DOWN SOUTH INTO
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY SWINGS EAST FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING A
MEDIUM/HIGH CHANCE (50-70%) OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE LOCAL
FORECAST AREA STARTING FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY. A
FEW SHORTWAVES RIDING ALONG THE UPPER LEVEL JET FROM TEXAS TOWARDS
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL RIPPLE THROUGH THE AREA THIS WEEKEND
KEEPING MEDIUM CHANCES (40-60%) OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH SUNDAY.
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING REMAINS QUITE LOW WITH THESE WEEKEND SYSTEMS,
BUT THE MAIN THREAT IS LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. SOMETHING THAT IS MUCH
NEEDED GIVEN THE ABNORMALLY DRY SPRING. THERE IS AT LEAST LOW
PROBABILITIES OF SOME STRONG STORMS, MAINLY ON SATURDAY AS THAT IS
WHEN THE GOOD SHEAR OVERLAPS WITH MODEST INSTABILITY.
AS WE HEAD INTO MONDAY A MORE PRONOUNCED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS DOWN
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. SFC CYCLOGENESIS IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP
ACROSS OK/TX AND THEN THE LOW WILL EJECT NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE
PLAINS. THE COLD FRONT TO ITS SOUTH IS FORECAST TO SWING THROUGH
MONDAY BRINGING MEDIUM CHANCES (40-60%) OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
ONCE AGAIN THERE ARE SIGNS OF STRONG TO MAYBE SEVERE STORMS
COINCIDING WITH THIS SYSTEM GIVEN THE ENSEMBLE MEANS HAVE 40-50 KNOTS
OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR COMBINED WITH 500-750 J/KG OF CAPE. A LOT CAN
CHANGE BETWEEN NOW AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, BUT TRENDS CONTINUE TO
SHOW AN ACTIVE PATTERN.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 542 AM CDT TUE APR 21 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW 10 KNOTS TODAY, THEN BECOME CALM ONCE AGAIN THIS
EVENING. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS WELL.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...RSB
SHORT TERM....RSB
LONG TERM....GH
AVIATION...26
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