046
FXUS64 KHUN 052250
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
450 PM CST THU FEB 5 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 921 AM CST THU FEB 5 2026
- DRY CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND WILL FOLLOW FROM THIS
WEEKEND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, WITH HIGHS RETURNING
TO THE 60S TO LOW 70S BY MONDAY/TUESDAY.
- LOW (20-30%) CHANCES FOR RAIN RETURN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.
NEAR TERM
(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 131 PM CST THU FEB 5 2026
MORNING CLOUD COVER HAS FINALLY DISSIPATED, WITH CLEAR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. DON'T LET THE
SUNSHINE FOOL YOU, HOWEVER, AS 19Z TEMPERATURES READINGS REMAIN IN
THE LOW TO MID 30S IN MOST LOCATIONS. CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF MID TO HIGH CLOUDS, WITH RADAR INDICATING
SOME LIGHT ECHOES UPSTREAM OVER KY/TN. GIVEN THE VERY DRY AIR IN
THE LOW LEVELS (AS EVIDENCED BY MODEL SOUNDINGS), THINK ALL OF
THIS IS LIKELY VIRGA -- WITH NO PRECIPITATION FORECAST THIS
EVENING ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE CLOUDS MAY HELP
TEMPERATURES STAY A LITTLE WARMER TONIGHT, BUT MOST AREAS WILL
STILL DROP INTO THE MID 20S.
SHORT TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 921 AM CST THU FEB 5 2026
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL AMPLIFY FRIDAY
INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND EVENTUALLY BUILD INTO THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY. THE COMBINATION OF AMPLE SUNSHINE ON FRIDAY AND WINDS
SHIFTING TO THE WSW/SW WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO NOTABLY WARM
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S. SHOULD THE HIGH OF 59 DEGREES VERIFY
AT KHSV, IT WOULD BE THE WARMEST WE'VE BEEN SINCE JANUARY 13TH AND
ONLY THE 3RD TIME SINCE THEN (24 DAYS), THAT WE'VE SEEN ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A TEMPORARY PAUSE IN THE WARMING WILL OCCUR
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE ALONG THE EASTERN
EDGE OF THIS RIDGE WILL PUSH A DRY COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA.
THIS WILL BRING SOME CLOUD COVER AND RESULT IN HIGHS ON SATURDAY
ONLY REACHING THE LOW TO MID 40S. HOWEVER, A MUCH MORE APPRECIABLE
WARM UP WILL FOLLOW AS THE RIDGE FURTHER BUILDS INTO THE AREA
NEXT WEEK. MORE ON THIS IN THE SECTION BELOW.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1002 PM CST WED FEB 4 2026
THE LONG TERM FORECAST LOOKS MOSTLY DRY AND WILL BE GOOD NEWS FOR
THOSE THAT ARE READY FOR MORE SPRING-LIKE TEMPERATURES. UPPER
RIDGING WILL BECOME MORE PROMINENT OVER THE GULF AND CENTRAL TO
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CONUS WILL EXPERIENCE TEMPERATURES ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMS. HIGHS WILL CLIMB BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S ON
SUNDAY AND WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. WILL SEE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGES THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE A SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCE BRINGS LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LOOK LOW
WITH THIS SYSTEM SO WE SHOULD REMAIN CLEAR OF ANY RISK FOR SEVERE
STORMS FOR NOW. THERE IS SOME SIGNAL THAT WE WILL TRANSITION INTO
A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN TOWARD THE LATER PART OF NEXT WEEK, BUT
THESE WILL BE TRENDS FOR US TO MONITOR LATER DOWN THE LINE.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 450 PM CST THU FEB 5 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT BOTH KMSL
AND KHSV. FRIDAY AFTERNOON, WINDS SHIFT TO BECOME NORTHWESTERLY
AND GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS ARE FORECAST TO BEGIN INFLUENCING BOTH
SITES.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...AMP
SHORT TERM....AMP
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...HC
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