799
FXUS64 KHUN 232321
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
521 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1038 AM CST FRI JAN 23 2026
- MODERATE IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED FOR FAR NORTHWEST ALABAMA AND
MINOR IMPACTS ELSEWHERE FROM EARLY SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING.
- AN ICE STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR LAUDERDALE, COLBERT
AND FRANKLIN COUNTIES IN NW AL FROM 12 AM SATURDAY - 6 PM
SUNDAY, WITH A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT ELSEWHERE.
- DANGEROUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY,
WITH MORNING WIND CHILLS OF -5 AND 5F.
NEAR TERM
(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 125 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2026
THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT HAS DROPPED TO NEAR THE I-59 CORRIDOR WITH
NORTH FLOW GUSTING AT 18-23KT AT TIMES. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS HAVE
THINNED OUT IN SPOTS ALLOWING FOR FILTERED SUNSHINE. TEMPERATURES
HAVE WARMED INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S IN NORTHEAST INTO
NORTH CENTRAL AL JUST BEHIND THE FRONT. HOWEVER, READINGS HAVE
BEEN HELD TO AROUND 40 IN FAR NORTHWEST AL. DEWPOINTS HAVE DROPPED
INTO THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S IN NORTHWEST AL INTO SOUTHERN MIDDLE
TN. THE COLDER AND DRY AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT SOUTHWARD
INTO THE REGION INTO TONIGHT. THIS WILL HELP TO DELAY MEASURABLE
WINTRY PRECIPITATION UNTIL VERY LATE TONIGHT, OR POSSIBLY INTO
EARLY SATURDAY. WE WILL MAINTAIN THE LOW POPS STARTING AFTER
MIDNIGHT IN NORTHWEST AL, SPREADING EAST THROUGH DAYBREAK.
HOWEVER, FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT MUCH OF THIS INITIAL
PRECIPITATION WILL BE SNOW/SLEET (SNPL) WHICH WOULD BE VERY
LIGHT. BY MORNING, LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER 20S
OR POSSIBLY INTO THE UPPER 10S IN SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN THROUGH FAR
NORTHWEST AL, WITH MIDDLE 20S FURTHER SOUTHEAST.
SHORT TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1038 AM CST FRI JAN 23 2026
A STRIPE OF WINTRY MIX WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST SATURDAY
MORNING, WITH -FZRA MAINLY SOUTH OF THE TN RIVER WITH SN AND IP
FURTHER NORTH. THE WARM NOSE WILL CHANGE PRECIPITATION TO RA
DURING THE DAY FOR MUCH OF NORTH AL AND PARTS OF SOUTHERN MIDDLE
TN. PRECIPITATION WILL STAY FZRA IN FAR NORTHWEST AL INTO
NORTHWEST LINCOLN AND MOORE COUNTIES IN TN, ALTHOUGH THIS IS
SUBJECT TO THE POSITION AND MOVEMENT OF THE WARM NOSE. WE WILL
ALSO HAVE TO MONITOR THE WEDGE/CAD IN OUR EASTERN COUNTIES AS
WELL, BUT THE MODELS ARE CONSISTENTLY ERODING THIS AT THE MOMENT.
THE WARM NOSE WILL PIVOT FURTHER NORTHWEST WITH TIME SATURDAY
NIGHT CHANGING MOST AREAS EVEN IN NORTHWEST AL AND SOUTHERN TN TO
RA. SOME OF THE RAIN WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES DUE TO A LOW LEVEL JET
OF 60-75KT AND AMPLE MOISTURE TRANSPORT, ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT THIS POINT EITHER. AS THE
LOW PRESSURE WAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST OF OUR AREA ON SUNDAY ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY, THE COLD FRONT RETURNS DURING THE AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING HOURS FROM WEST TO EAST. A TRANSITION TO A
MIXTURE OF FZRA, IP AND SN WILL OCCUR DURING THIS PERIOD, ALTHOUGH
THE DURATION OF SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING PRECIPITATION DURING
THIS TIME IS IN DOUBT AS DRY AIR WILL PUNCH INTO THE MID LEVELS
CUTTING OFF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION SOMEWHAT. HOWEVER, THE DENDRITIC
LAYER WILL BE IN LOWER LEVELS AT THAT TIME NOTED ON FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SO WON'T RULE OUT A QUICK BURST OF SNOW EITHER.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 938 PM CST THU JAN 22 2026
ANY REMAINING WINTER PRECIP COMES TO AN END SUNDAY NIGHT AND IN
ITS WAKE A BONE CHILLING AIRMASS ADVECTS IN FROM THE NW.
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT DIP DOWN INTO THE LOW TEENS. COMBINED
WITH WINDS GUSTING 20-25 MPH, WIND CHILLS OVERNIGHT WILL DROP
BETWEEN -5F - 5F. COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
TO COVER THIS THREAT. THE GOOD NEWS, IS THAT THE GUSTY WINDS
SHOULD HELP DRY AREA ROADWAYS, ESPECIALLY AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF
I-65. NOT MUCH IMPROVEMENT IN TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY AS STRONG
CAA HOLD AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID 20S WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE
TEENS. WINDS DIMINISH BY MONDAY NIGHT AND UNDER CLEAR SKIES,
OVERNIGHT LOWS DROP DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS. TEMPERATURES WILL
FINALLY CLIMB BACK ABOVE FREEZING ON TUESDAY, ALBEIT ONLY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 30S. THE COLD AND DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE
END OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH ANOTHER REINFORCING ARCTIC FRONT
ARRIVING THURSDAY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 520 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AROUND 12Z. AFTER 12Z WINTER
PRECIP WILL BEGIN TO ENTER THE AREA FROM THE WSW. CURRENTLY WE
HAVE A WINTRY MIX OF SNOW AND SLEET ARRIVING JUST AFTER 12Z AT
MSL AND AFTER AROUND 13Z AT HSV. HEAVIER PRECIP WILL ARRIVE AT
BOTH TERMINALS AFTER 18Z WITH MSL LIKELY SEEING A SWITCH FROM SNPL
TO FZRA BETWEEN 18-20Z. HSV ON THE OTHER HAND WILL LIKELY SEE A
SWITCH FROM SNPL TO RA. WITH THE HEAVIER PRECIP, CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES ARE FORECAST TO DROP TO LOW MVFR. THE LOW MVFR
CONDITIONS AND HEAVIER PRECIP ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE BEYOND 00Z
INTO THE NEXT TAF PERIOD.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 413 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2026
HIGH RISK FOR MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES:
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER HAS INCLUDED THE ENTIRE TENNESSEE
VALLEY IN A HIGH RISK FOR MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES BETWEEN
JANUARY 31, 2026 THROUGH FEBRUARY 1, 2026. THEREFORE, THERE IS
GREATER THAN A 60% CHANCE FOR TEMPERATURES BELOW 17-20 DEGREES F
DURING THIS PERIOD.
MORE INFORMATION ON THE CPC U.S. HAZARDS OUTLOOK CAN BE FOUND AT:
HTTPS://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/PREDICTIONS/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...ICE STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM CST SUNDAY FOR
ALZ001>003.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM CST SUNDAY
FOR ALZ004>010-016.
TN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM CST SUNDAY
FOR TNZ076-096-097.
NEAR TERM...17
SHORT TERM....17
LONG TERM....GH
AVIATION...RAD
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