424
FXUS64 KHUN 260157
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
757 PM CST THU DEC 25 2025
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 757 PM CST THU DEC 25 2025
- TEMPERATURES REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEKEND, INCLUDING
NEAR RECORD OR RECORD HIGHS.
- A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.
- TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BELOW NORMAL BEHIND THE COLD FRONT EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 757 PM CST THU DEC 25 2025
THE STRATUS DECK THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE MOST OF TODAY HAS CLEARED
NORTHWEST INTO CENTRAL AL. TEMPERATURES HAVE DIPPED INTO THE LOWER
60S WITH T/TD SPREADS OF 5F OR LESS IN MOST AREAS. WITH LIGHT OR
CALM SURFACE FLOW, PATCHY FOG WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOWEVER, FLOW JUST ABOVE THE DECOUPLED BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL TRANSPORT MOISTURE EAST-NORTHEAST WITH LOWER CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED AS WELL. THUS, THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ON HOW
WIDESPREAD AND DENSE THE FOG WILL BECOME. FOR NOW, WE WILL BE IN
MONITORING MODE AND MESSAGE THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY DENSE FOG.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S.
A SURFACE LOW IN KS WILL RAPIDLY MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT THAT
WILL STALL OUT WELL TO OUR NORTHWEST. THE RELATED MID LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE MS AND
TN VALLEYS. THIS BRINGS A VERY LOW CHANCE (10% OR LESS) OF LIGHT
SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES TO OUR AREA FRIDAY, INCREASING TO 15-20%
FRIDAY EVENING. THE CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER ON FRIDAY WILL HOLD
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 70S IN VALLEY LOCATIONS (UPPER 60S
ATOP THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS). OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60.
SHORT TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 757 PM CST THU DEC 25 2025
THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF AMERICA INTO THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. WILL PROVIDE TWO MORE WARM DAYS OVER THE WEEKEND.
HOWEVER, LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE AREAS OF LOWER STRATUS,
ESPECIALLY DURING THE NIGHT INTO THE MORNING HOURS. AS THE NEXT
TROUGH AND COLD FRONT ENTER THE PLAINS, THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND
ROBUST SOUTHWEST FLOW IN LOW LEVELS CONTINUES TO ADVECT WARM AND
MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION. DESPITE POTENTIAL AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS,
TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S FOR HIGHS BOTH
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WHICH WILL BE NEAR RECORDS DAILY VALUES.
RECORD HIGHS...
SATURDAY: HSV 77 IN 2015 MSL 78 IN 2015
SUNDAY: HSV 74 IN 2021 MSL 75 IN 1907
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 757 PM CST THU DEC 25 2025
BY MONDAY MORNING, THE COLD FRONT WILL BE ADVANCING THROUGH THE AREA
AND WE ARE DUE FOR A PRETTY RAPID CHANGE IN AIRMASS AND A COLD
WELCOME BACK TO WINTER. RAIN WILL TAPER OFF TOWARD THE AFTERNOON AND
IF THE CURRENT FORECAST HOLDS, TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE TOO WARM BY THE
TIME THE RAIN ENDS TO RESULT IN ANY WINTRY MIX. WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR TIMING AND TEMPERATURE TRENDS AS WE GO THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
BUT FOR NOW WE CONTINUE TO KEEP ANY MENTION OF FLURRIES OUT OF THE
FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT IN THE 40S ON MONDAY AND PLUMMET
DOWN INTO THE UPPER TEENS/LOWER 20S BY TUESDAY MORNING. WIND CHILLS
WILL DROP TO THE LOW TEENS TO PERHAPS SINGLE DIGITS IN SOME
LOCATIONS, ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE WINDS WILL BE A
LITTLE HIGHER. BREEZY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING BEFORE GRADIENT WINDS BEGIN TO SLACKEN AS HIGH PRESSURE NEARS
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE 30S ON TUESDAY WITH A
DIP BACK TO THE TEENS/20S TUESDAY NIGHT. THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG
TERM FORECAST REMAINS UNCERTAIN DUE TO MODEL INCONSISTENCIES AT THIS
RANGE BUT GENERALLY FAVORS DRY WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 428 PM CST THU DEC 25 2025
THROUGH 08Z, CEILINGS OF 020-025AGL (MVFR) WILL PERSIST IN NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST AL AND SOUTHERN TN INCLUDING KHSV.
IN NORTHWEST AL INCLUDING KMSL, CEILINGS HAVE RISEN TO 030-045AGL
(VFR). CEILINGS ARE FORECAST TO REDEVELOP IN THE 010-020AGL RANGE
(MVFR) BY 08Z. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF LOWER VISIBILITY AND IFR
CONDITIONS, BUT NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THIS SET OF TAFS.
IMPROVEMENT BACK TO MVFR IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON BY 22Z,
ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE PATCHES OF IMPROVEMENT BEFORE THAT TIME.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...17
SHORT TERM....17
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...17
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