063
FXUS64 KHUN 261625
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1125 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1108 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2026
- HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR NW AL TODAY. IT THEN EXPANDS TO
INCLUDE AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF I-65 STARTING MONDAY MORNING
AND CONTINUES THROUGH TUESDAY 7 PM.
- THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS EARLY MONDAY
MORNING AND AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
- A COLD FRONT (PRECEDED BY THUNDERSTORMS) WILL BRING A SLIGHTLY
COOLER/DRIER AIRMASS TO THE REGION FOR THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1108 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2026
THE SHOWERS THAT DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT HAVE EITHER
DISSIPATED OR PUSHED SOUTH INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AL. WHILE WE
CANNOT FULLY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER THE REST OF THE MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON DUE TO THE MOIST ENVIRONMENT, CHANCES APPEAR
VERY LOW (<15%). AS OF 9AM, SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING
CLEAR SKIES ALONG AND WEST OF I-65 WITH CLOUD COVER LINGERING
FURTHER EAST. LOOKING UPSTREAM, AN AREA OF HIGH CLOUDS IS MOVING
SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA AND WILL BE ARRIVING
LATER THIS MORNING. THE CLOUD COVER MAY LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF
HEATING THIS AFTERNOON. REGARDLESS, IT IS GOING TO FEEL QUITE WARM
OUTSIDE TODAY WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S AND
AFTERNOON HIGHS FORECAST TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.
THIS BRINGS MAX HEAT INDEX VALUES THIS AFTERNOON TO 100F-107F WITH
THE HIGHEST VALUES FURTHER WEST. THEREFORE, WILL MAINTAIN THE
CURRENT HEAT ADVISORY FOR OUR TWO FAR NW COUNTIES IN AL GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY ELSEWHERE.
OUR ATTENTION TONIGHT IS ON AN UPSTREAM MCS FORMING TO OUR NORTH
AND RIDING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT INTO OUR LOCAL
FORECAST AREA. TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT REACHES
SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN IS QUITE UNCERTAIN. HOWEVER, SEVERAL CAMS SHOW
THIS FEATURE ARRIVING IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS MONDAY (4-8 AM)
WITH THE MOST LIKELY AREA BEING LOCATIONS EAST OF I-65. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW BETWEEN 1000-2000 J/KG OF MLCAPE WITH DEEP LAYER
SHEAR BETWEEN 20-30 KTS. IF STORMS CAN REMAIN SFC BASED THE MAIN
THREATS WOULD BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HEAVY RAINFALL.
SHORT TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1108 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2026
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ONGOING MCS TO BE PRESENT AT THE
START OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD MONDAY MORNING. AS IT CONTINUES TO
PUSH SOUTH, IT WILL LIKELY BE ON A WEAKENING TREND BEFORE IT
GRADUALLY DISSIPATES BY THE LATE MORNING. THE IMPACTS OF THE
CLOUD COVER AND RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY
IMPACT THE POTENTIAL FOR DANGEROUS HEAT LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON.
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK, THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
REMAINS UNCHANGED WITH A LARGE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL US AND A
TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. THE MORNING CAM SUITE INDICATES THAT
WITH DAYTIME HEATING, ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY REDEVELOP
ALONG RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM THE MORNING MCS. COVERAGE
OF THESE STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON APPEAR TOO LOW TO REALLY
IMPACT THE HEAT POTENTIAL DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS. AFTERNOON
HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER 90S EAST AND MID 90S WEST WITH
HEAT INDEX VALUES IN LOW 100S IN NE AL AND BETWEEN 103F-107F
FURTHER WEST. ON TUESDAY, THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS A BIT FURTHER
EAST. THIS WILL WARM AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES UP A FEW DEGREES WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 90S. THIS WILL BRING
AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES BETWEEN 105-110 DEGREES WITH A FEW
DEGREES COOLER IN NE AL. GIVEN THESE CONDITIONS, A HEAT ADVISORY
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR OUR COUNTIES ALONG AND WEST OF I-65 FROM 10 AM
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. ADDITIONAL COUNTIES MAY BE ADDED,
ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY IF FORECAST CONFIDENCE INCREASES.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2026
EXTENDED RANGE MODEL DATA SUGGESTS THAT A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW
WILL TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC STATES ON
TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY, IN CONJUNCTION WITH AN AMPLIFYING LONGWAVE
TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. A COLD FRONT ATTACHED TO THE LOW
APPEARS LIKELY TO DROP SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE TN VALLEY DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME, ALTHOUGH DETAILS REGARDING SPECIFIC TIMING ARE UNCLEAR AT
THIS POINT. A WARM/MOIST AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF
THE FRONT, WITH STEEP LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND CAPE TO SUPPORT A
COUPLE OF ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS (PERHAPS AN MCS TUESDAY NIGHT
FOLLOWED BY ADDITIONAL CONVECTION MORE DIRECTLY FORCED BY THE COLD
FRONT WEDNESDAY). FURTHERMORE, DEEP-LAYER NW FLOW OF 20-30 KNOTS WILL
EXIST WITHIN A CONTRACTED HEIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TROUGH TO OUR
EAST AND A STRONG MID-LEVEL HIGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS, AND
THIS COULD SUPPORT A RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS GIVEN THE FAVORABLE
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT.
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, LIGHT-MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL ADVECT
A COOLER/DRIER CONTINENTAL AIRMASS INTO THE REGION, WITH DEWPOINTS
BRIEFLY FALLING INTO THE 60S AN PWAT VALUES FALLING TO AROUND OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW 1" FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY NIGHT (AND PERHAPS
INTO FRIDAY AS WELL). BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, DEEP-LAYER
SSW FLOW WILL RETURN TO THE REGION AS AN AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH
(TRAVELING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE TO OUR WEST) DIGS
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE MID-MS/LOWER-OH VALLEY REGION AND A SURFACE
LOW SHIFTS EASTWARD FROM THE RED RIVER VALLEY INTO THE ARKLAMISS
VICINITY. RICH MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO THE REGION AS THIS OCCURS,
WITH AN INCREASE IN THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
BEGINNING LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1126 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2026
MVFR CLOUDS CONTINUE TO LINGER AT HSV, BUT SHOULD LIFT EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THEN VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
PERIOD. THE ONE EXCEPTION IS MONDAY MORNING WHERE AN MCS IS
EXPECTED TO BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE TERMINALS. FOR
NOW LEFT THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN A PROB 30 GROUP AS THERE IS A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING AND LOCATION OF THIS SYSTEM.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR ALZ001-002.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM MONDAY TO 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR
ALZ003>007-016.
TN...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM MONDAY TO 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR TNZ076-
096.
NEAR TERM...GH
SHORT TERM....GH
LONG TERM....70
AVIATION...GH
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