901
FXUS64 KHUN 310142
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
842 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2025
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TONIGHT AND SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 842 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2025
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED FOR ANOTHER NIGHT. WITH THE
DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE, COMBINED WITH LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS ALONG
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES, RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. A LOW CHANCE FOR PATCHY FOG
EXISTS OVERNIGHT, BUT NOT EXPECTING IT TO BE IMPACTFUL. THESE
TEMPS ARE MORE REPRESENTATIVE OF MID/LATE SEPTEMBER, SO ENJOY!
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND, HOWEVER A
SHORTWAVE WILL DEVELOP TO OUR NORTHEAST AND SEND IN SOME
ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH SUNSHINE THROUGH
THOSE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO HELP TEMPS REACH THE LOWER 80S (NE
AL) TO THE UPPER 80S (ELSEWHERE).
SHORT TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 842 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2025
A PATTERN CHANGE IS ON THE WAY NEXT WEEK, BRINGING THOSE PICTURE
PERFECT FALL TYPE DAYS TO AN END. WE WILL STILL HAVE COOLER TEMPS,
BUT AT THE COST OF HAVING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN. THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SHORTWAVE WILL CREATE A WEDGE ON MONDAY THAT
WILL BUILD INTO NE AL. THIS WILL LIFT A STALLED BOUNDARY THAT IS
CURRENTLY SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA, NORTHWARD AND RETURN A LOW
CHANCE (20-30%) OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH NORTHWARD THROUGH THE TN VALLEY, ALLOWING FOR
GULF MOISTURE TO RETURN BEHIND IT.
FROM THE OTHER DIRECTION, A SHORTWAVE WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE MIDWEST, ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY AND INTO THE TN
VALLEY BY TUESDAY. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE
TO 20-40%. PWATS WILL INCREASE UP TO 1.5" BY TUESDAY BUT SHEAR AND
STEERING FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BE WEAK BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY. AT
THIS TIME, MAIN HAZARDS WITHIN ANY STRONGER STORM WOULD BE GUSTY
WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES WILL SLIDE THE
DAYTIME HIGHS FROM THE LOWER TO UPPER 80S ON MONDAY, TO THE UPPER
70S TO MID 80S ON TUESDAY. LOWS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 60S.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 842 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2025
BY MID WEEK, A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO PUSH SOUTHWARD
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION- BRINGING THE SHORTWAVE SOUTHEASTWARD
INTO THE OHIO RIVER AND NORTHERN TENNESSEE VALLEYS. A SUBSEQUENT
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO FORM AND PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD BY THURSDAY.
THERE CONTINUES TO BE SLIGHT DISAGREEMENT ON THE EVENTUAL
PLACEMENT OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE AND ADJACENT COLD FRONT,
HOWEVER, TRENDS CONTINUE TO POINT TOWARDS THE FEATURE REMAINING
NORTH OF OUR CWA (PRIMARILY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE). THEREFORE,
CONTINUED WITH BLENDED GUIDANCE OF LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE LREF SHOWS
LIMITED CAPE (~300-500 J/KG) WITH RELATIVELY WEAK SHEAR AND
UNIMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES (~6 C/KM) WEDNESDAY EVENING. WE
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS TREND AS WE PUSH INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. POST-FRONTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BE COOLER AND DRY
WITH DEW POINTS DROPPING INTO THE LOW 50S BY THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 557 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KHSV AND KMSL THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR GROUND FOG EARLY SUNDAY MORNING,
BUT COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE IMPACTFUL.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...JMS
SHORT TERM....JMS
LONG TERM....HC
AVIATION...JMS
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