774
FXUS64 KHUN 230504 CCA
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1204 AM CDT THU APR 23 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1122 PM CDT WED APR 22 2026
- A FEW STRONG-MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR FROM
FRIDAY EVENING INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING (MAIN IN NW AL).
GUSTY-LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN
THREATS.
- THERE COULD BE ANOTHER CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER NEXT MONDAY.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TONIGHT AND THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1122 PM CDT WED APR 22 2026
TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. CLEAR
SKIES ARE IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN
MIDDLE TENNESSEE. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. LIGHT WINDS
WILL CONTINUE AS WELL. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING SETUP AS WE MOVE INTO THURSDAY MORNING. DEWPOINTS SHOULD
SLOWLY INCREASE JUST TAD INTO THE 50 TO 55 DEGREE RANGE IN MOST
AREAS TOWARDS DAYBREAK. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME PATCHY FOG WITH
SOME EMBEDDED SMALLER AREAS OF FOG IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS OF
NORTHEASTERN ALABAMA AND TOWARDS LEWIS SMITH LAKE TOWARDS DAYBREAK
ON THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES AROUND DAYBREAK SHOULD DROP INTO THE
UPPER 40S TO AROUND 55 DEGREES (WEST).
NOT MUCH CHANGE IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY, AS THE UPPER RIDGE
REMAINS IN CONTROL OF WEATHER OVER NORTHERN ALABAMA. 925 MB
TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO AROUND 20 DEGREES. NOT EXPECTING MUCH CLOUD
COVER, SO HIGHS WILL LIKELY CLIMB TO NEAR OR JUST ABOVE HIGHS
EARLIER TODAY. EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH THE LOWER TO MID 80S (80 TO
86 DEGREE RANGE).
SHORT TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1122 PM CDT WED APR 22 2026
THE VERY AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE IN GUIDANCE OVER
THE SOUTHEAST CONUS INTO THE DAY ON FRIDAY. CONSISTENT LOW LEVEL
FLOW FROM THE SOUTH WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT MORE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. THIS AND A TIGHTENING GRADIENT WIND
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING BELOW THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S. SOME PATCHY FOG TOWARDS LEWIS SMITH LAKE AND
SHELTERED VALLEY LOCATIONS IN NE ALABAMA MAY BE POSSIBLE AGAIN
THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE UPPER RIDGING BREAKS DOWN LATE IN THE DAY ON FRIDAY, AS A
STRONG UPPER LOW OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA SPINS AND PUSHES A PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH AXIS AHEAD OF IT INTO THE OHIO VALLEY/MID-
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AREA. THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER MUCH OF THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY AND GULF COAST STATES MUCH OF THE DAY ON FRIDAY
SHOULD KEEP THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AXIS AND CONVECTION AHEAD OF IT
JUST TO OUR WEST THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. MOST GUIDANCE
SHOWS VERY LITTLE CONVECTION DEVELOPING THROUGH AROUND 4 PM IN
NORTHERN ALABAMA, THOUGH IT IS NOT FAR OFF TO THE WEST. SOME
GUIDANCE DOES HINT AT SBCAPE CLIMBING BETWEEN 500 AND 1000 J/KG IN
PORTIONS OF NW ALABAMA BETWEEN 4 AND 7 PM. HOWEVER, 0-6 SHEAR IS
VERY WEAK (<25 KTS) IN MOST GUIDANCE AND THE STRONGER FORCING
REMAINS AHEAD OF THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AXIS JUST TO OUR WEST.
THIS WEAK SHEAR CONTINUES IN GUIDANCE INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS. BETTER SHEAR SEEMS TO LINE UP WITH BETTER INSTABILITY MUCH
FURTHER WEST OVER ARKANSAS/NE TEXAS, AND WESTERN MISSISSIPPI.
FORCING IN MOST GUIDANCE HOLDS OFF UNTIL AFTER 7 PM AS WELL. THUS,
NOT OVERLY IMPRESSED WITH EVEN A LOW CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER, STRONG FORCING DOES MOVE INTO THE AREA AROUND 700 MB
WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE. THIS WILL LIKELY GIVE US A GOOD SHOT OF
RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY, PWATS ARE NOT EXTREMELY HIGH FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR, BUT THE STRONG FORCING COULD PRODUCE A SOLID
HALF OF AN INCH TO 1 INCH OF RAINFALL WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF
THIS ACTIVITY IN THE AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY A FEW SCATTERED
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY KEEP HIGHS A TAD LOWER IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. IF ANY STRONGER STORMS DID OCCUR, THEY
WOULD MORE LIKELY BE IN NW ALABAMA IN THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS ON
FRIDAY.
THE AXIS OF THE FAIRLY STRONG 700 MB DISTURBANCE DOES SHIFT
SOUTHEAST SATURDAY MORNING. MODELS ARE MIXED ON HOW QUICKLY AND
NOW MUCH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AXIS. SOME GUIDANCE SHOWS 30 KNOTS OF SHEAR REMAINING OVER
THE AREA WITH GOOD INSTABILITY REDEVELOPING DURING THE DAY.
HOWEVER, OTHERS SHOW LESS THAN 30 KNOTS OF SHEAR. LEANING TOWARDS
JUST ADDITIONAL STORMS AND RAINFALL REDEVELOPING. HOWEVER, WE WILL
NEED TO MONITOR TRENDS IN CASE SHEAR REMAINS IN PLACE LATER IN
THE DAY ON SATURDAY FOR A LOW CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS. SATURDAY'S
HIGHS SHOULD BE LOWER WITH SOME WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1122 PM CDT WED APR 22 2026
MUCH STRONGER UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, AS THE DISTURBANCE'S TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS FURTHER
SOUTHEAST. WE WILL LIKELY SEE A BREAK IN CLOUD COVER DURING THIS
PERIOD BEFORE MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS RETURN ON SUNDAY. SUNSHINE
AND FAIRLY WARM LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO CLIMB INTO
THE 80 TO 85 DEGREE RANGE AGAIN.
AS A STRONG UPPER LOW ROTATES AROUND THE STATIONARY SURFACE LOW
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA, STRONG CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS OVER THE
MIDWEST AND NORTHERN PLAINS AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. A
STRONG SUB-TROPICAL JET ALSO FEEDS THIS PROCESS. THIS WILL CREATE
THE POTENTIAL OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING AGAIN OVER THE AREA.
AS THIS STRONGER FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES EAST TOWARDS THE OHIO
VALLEY MONDAY MORNING INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON, MUCH STRONGER FORCING
DEVELOPS AHEAD OF IT AND PUSHES INTO THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO
VALLEYS MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT. GOOD HELICITY, SHEAR,
AND INSTABILITY IS SHOWN IN MOST GUIDANCE AHEAD OF IT. THIS COULD
BE BOTH A PERIOD OF SEVERE WEATHER AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION/OHIO VALLEY. PWATS CLIMB TO BETWEEN
1.3 AND 1.7 INCHES AND VERY STRONG DYNAMICS FEED BY A STRONG SUB-
TOPICAL JET AND A COUPLED LOW/MID LEVEL JET STREAKS COULD PRODUCE
SOME VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. THIS PERIOD MAY NEED TO BE MONITORED
FOR A MINOR FLASH FLOODING THREAT.
THIS SYSTEM PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING BRINGING
DRIER AND SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR TO THE AREA. THIS PATTERN QUICKLY
BECOME UNSETTLED AGAIN IN MOST GUIDANCE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY, AS ANOTHER STRONG DISTURBANCE ROTATES AROUND THE PARENT
UPPER LOW MOVE EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS COULD PRODUCE
A MORE SERIOUS THREAT OF FLOODING CONCERNS AS WE GO INTO THE
MID/END OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1202 AM CDT THU APR 23 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. LIGHT WINDS EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE TO BETWEEN 5-10
KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 15 KNOTS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO BE LIGHT ONCE AGAIN EARLY THIS EVENING.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...KTW
SHORT TERM....KTW
LONG TERM....KTW
AVIATION...26
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