916
FXUS64 KHUN 021722
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1222 PM CDT THU APR 2 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1027 AM CDT THU APR 2 2026
- A WARM, MOIST AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEK,
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S EACH DAY, AND LOWS IN
THE 60S.
- LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TODAY
AND FRIDAY.
- MUCH HIGHER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE FORECAST
SATURDAY EVENING/NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS A STRONG
COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THERE IS A
MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS WEST OF I-65.
- COLDER CONDITIONS RETURN TO THE AREA NEXT WEEK; WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND LOWS IN THE 40S.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1027 AM CDT THU APR 2 2026
A WEAK TROUGHING WEST AND WEAK RIDGING EAST BIG-PICTURE UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN PREVAILED OVER THE GREATER CONUS THIS MORNING. A
SATELLITE VIEW INDICATED MAINLY CIRRUS JUST WEST OF THE AREA
SLOWLY MOVING EASTWARD. EXCEPT FOR THOSE FEW HIGH CLOUDS,
GENERALLY SUNNY CONDITIONS PREVAILED WITH 10 AM AREA TEMPERATURES
ALREADY INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S, AND SE-S WINDS OF 5-15 MPH.
A RETURN OF MOISTURE, ALBEIT SLIGHT OVER OUR MORE EASTERN AREAS,
PLUS HIGHER INSTABILITY FROM DAYTIME HEATING COULD BRING A FEW
SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR CENTRAL TO EASTERN AREAS IN THE
AFTERNOON. INPUTTING THESE MINIMAL RAIN CHANCES YIELDED NO THUNDER
AT THIS TIME; SOMETHING THAT WILL WILL MONITOR. OTHERWISE UNDER
PARTY CLOUDY SKIES, HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE INTO THE LOW/MID
80S, A GOOD 10-15 DEGREES WARMER THAN SEASONABLE HIGHS.
CANNOT RULE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS THIS EVENING; OTHERWISE VERY MILD
FOR EARLY APRIL WITH LOWS ONLY IN THE MID 60S, OR 15-20 DEGREES
WARMER THAN SEASONABLE LOWS.
SHORT TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1027 AM CDT THU APR 2 2026
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE ON GOOD FRIDAY. CANNOT RULE
OUT A STRAY SHOWER IN THE AFTERNOON FROM DAYTIME HEATING PRODUCED
INSTABILITY. HIGH TEMPERATURES AGAIN WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN
NORMAL, RISING INTO THE LOW/MID 80S. ONE MORE VERY MILD NIGHT FRI
NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 60S.
SATURDAY WILL BE THE LAST VERY WARM DAY FOR A WHILE, WITH HIGHS
INTO THE LOWER 80S. A DRY TREND SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE COMING TO
AN END IN THE AFTERNOON, AS A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST. THIS FRONT WILL BRING MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON, BEGINNING OVER NW ALABAMA,
WITH HIGHER RAIN CHANCES PROGRESSING EASTWARD AS WE GO INTO THE
LATE AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 931 PM CDT WED APR 1 2026
AN UPPER TROUGH IS SLATED TO PIVOT FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. UP INTO
CANADA THIS WEEKEND. COINCIDENT WITH THIS IS A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM THAT LOOKS TO TRAVERSE THE GREAT LAKES AND MOVE INTO CANADA
DURING THIS TIME. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW IS THEN
EXPECTED TO SWING OVER THE SOUTHEAST ON SATURDAY, WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST RIGHT BEHIND IT. OVERALL, MEDIUM TO HIGH
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE FORECAST SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. HOWEVER, HOW MUCH LINGERING PRECIPITATION THERE WILL BE ON
SUNDAY WILL LARGELY DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING.
CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS RUNS,
INDICATING BULK SHEAR VALUES TOPPING OUT AROUND 25-30 KNOTS SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH, INSTABILITY IS INCREASING A BIT
FROM YESTERDAY, WHICH MAKES SENSE SINCE OUR FORECAST HIGHS ARE IN THE
UPPER 70S ON SATURDAY. CAPE VALUES LOOK TO RANGE AROUND 500-1200
J/KG SATURDAY AFTERNOON THEN DECREASE A BIT TO LESS THAN 1000 J/KG BY
THE EVENING TIME. THEREFORE, THE THERMODYNAMICS ARE SUFFICIENT FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER, LOOKING ALOFT, THE BETTER UPPER
LEVEL DYNAMICS (JET MAXES) REMAIN TO OUR NORTH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
SATURDAY AND INTO SUNDAY. GIVEN THIS, CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE
OCCURRENCE OF SEVERE WEATHER. HOWEVER, WE WILL BE MONITORING THE
POTENTIAL CLOSELY. CHECK BACK FOR UPDATES AS WE GO THROUGH THE WEEK!
BEYOND SUNDAY AFTERNOON, NO RAIN IS FORECAST THROUGH MIDWEEK. THERE
ARE INDICATIONS THAT A REINFORCING COLD FRONT MAY MOVE OVER THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY ON TUESDAY; HOWEVER, THERE IS VERY LITTLE MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE. THUS, THIS MAY BRING A BIT MORE CLOUD
COVER BUT MOSTLY HELP MAINTAIN THE COOLER TEMPERATURES POST FROPA, IF
NOT BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES (ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT).
HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES EACH DAY
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH LOWS IN THE 40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS
MONDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH, SOME SPOTS IN NORTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN
MIDDLE TENNESSEE MAY DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S TUESDAY NIGHT! IT MAY BE
A GOOD IDEA TO KEEP THOSE JACKETS HANDY AND NOT PACK THEM AWAY FOR
THE SEASON, SINCE THE COOLER WEATHER HASN'T LEFT US JUST YET!
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT THU APR 2 2026
VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE TAF. HIGH ALTITUDE
CLOUD COVERAGE WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, AS A DEVELOPING SYSTEM WELL TO THE WEST MOVES EASTWARD.
SOMEWHAT LOWER ALTITUDE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO EARLY
FRI. S-SW WINDS OF 10-20KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD
BACK MORE TO THE SE, GENERALLY UNDER 10KT TONIGHT. DAYTIME HEATING
AND RESULTANT INSTABILITY COULD YIELD A FEW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON
PRIMARILY EAST OF KHSV.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...RSB
SHORT TERM....RSB
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...RSB
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page