468
FXUS64 KHUN 061733
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1133 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1004 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2026
- MEDIUM CHANCES (30-40%) OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. NO SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED.
- MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES (60-90%) OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING, WITH A LOW RISK OF A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS. DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN ARE THE MAIN
THREATS.
- TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1004 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2026
A SURGE OF BETTER MOISTURE IS CONTINUING TO MAKE ITS WAY NORTH AND
CAN BE SEEN BY INCREASING CLOUD COVER OVER PORTIONS OF NW AL THIS
MORNING. SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO KEEP A WARM AIRMASS IN PLACE
AS HIGH PRESSURE SITS OVER THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC AND A BROAD
UPPER RIDGE HAS ALLOWED A WARM SECTORED AIRMASS TO ENCOMPASS
ALMOST THE ENTIRE EASTERN CONUS. WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
STRONGER SYNOPTIC SUPPORT TODAY, WE WILL MAINTAIN A LOW RISK
(25-35%) FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON BUT WITH LIMITED SHEAR
AND THERMODYNAMIC SUPPORT THESE STORMS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S
WITH OCCASIONALLY BREEZY SOUTHERLY FLOW. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE
WARM, ONLY FALLING TO THE LOW/MID 60S WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
SHORT TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1004 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2026
THE MAIN FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE THE THREAT FOR A
FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON. AN UPPER
WAVE WILL PIVOT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION AND A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE MIDWEST ON
SATURDAY. WHILE NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG, THERE WILL BE A
FAVORABLE OVERLAP OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS
A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS PUSH THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST.
SPC HAS ADDED A 2% RISK AREA FOR TORNADOES WEST OF I-65 WHERE THE
MOST FAVORABLE OVERLAP OF INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL HELICITY WILL
EXIST. ELSEWHERE, DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY
RISKS, ESPECIALLY ALONG ANY BOWING SEGMENTS OF THE LINE/CLUSTER
AND STRONGER/ISOLATED UPDRAFTS EMBEDDED WITHIN. THESE STORMS
SHOULD MOVE INTO NW AL AROUND NOON AND EXIT THE AREA TO THE EAST
BY 7-8PM. WHILE STORM TOTAL RAIN AMOUNTS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY
DOWNWARD AND THE RISK OF FLASH FLOODING IS LOW, PWAT VALUES
BETWEEN 1.3-1.6" WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF HEAVIER DOWNPOURS THAT
COULD CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON AREA ROADWAYS.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SLIGHTLY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS THE
FRONT STALLS NEAR THE REGION. THIS WILL KEEP MEDIUM TO HIGH
CHANCES FOR RAIN AND STORMS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE
FRONT INTERACTS WITH THE AREA, THOUGH WE WILL HAVE LESS
INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH IN THE WAKE OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ON
SATURDAY.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1025 PM CST THU MAR 5 2026
MOST GUIDANCE WEAKENS THE FORCING ALONG THE FRONT SIGNIFICANTLY
SUNDAY NIGHT AS IT PUSHES SOUTHWARDS INTO CENTRAL OR SOUTHERN
ALABAMA. SOME LIGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS OR ISOLATED ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS COULD CONTINUE INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. ABUNDANT
CLOUD COVER AND LINGERING SOUTHWESTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL
KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS WARM IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
MODELS DEVELOP A STRONGER SURFACE LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS
AREA INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A SURFACE FRONT
EXTENDING SOUTHWEST INTO KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA. THIS FRONT HAS A HARD
TIME PUSHING VERY FAR SOUTHEAST INTO THE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS ON MONDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST INTO
EAST CENTRAL CANADA. HOWEVER, INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY AND SOUTHERLY
FLOW AHEAD OF IT GRADUALLY PULL THE WEAK FRONT OVER SOUTHERN ALABAMA
NORTHWARD. THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP MOST OF THE AREA CLOUDY AND
CONTENDING WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THE ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER ON MONDAY
WILL LIKELY KEEP HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S, BELOW RECORD HIGHS.
THE MOST WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY
OCCUR MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE BECOMING
MORE SCATTERED. INSTABILITY LOOKS FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE (1000 TO 2000
J/KG) ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, 0-6 KM SHEAR LOOKS WEAK, BUT MAY
BE JUST ENOUGH FOR SOME STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. LUCKILY, WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS ARE ABOVE 10,000 AND
HELICITY IS VERY WEAK IN GUIDANCE RIGHT NOT, SO THE MAIN THREATS
WOULD BE FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND STRAIGHT LINE WIND DAMAGE IS ANY
SEVERE STORMS DID OCCUR. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME IN
SEVERE DEVELOPMENT GIVEN WEAK SHEAR AND THE LACK OF HELICITY IN
PLACE. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN QUICKLY AND REDUCE ITS COVERAGE
QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF INSTABILITY. LOWS WILL BE A BIT
WARMER LIKELY, ONLY DROPPING INTO THE LOWER 60S PRIMARILY.
MODELS ARE DISAGREEMENT ON WHERE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ENDS UP
TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY. EITHER WAY, A NEW SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER
NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO SOUTHEAST COLORADO BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
THE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONTINUES TO BE AN IMPEDIMENT TO
THE SURFACE LOW AND UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MOVING MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST
VERSUS NORTHEAST INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS SHOULD KEEP LOW TO MEDIUM
CHANCES OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AREA, MAINLY NORTH OF THE
TENNESSEE RIVER THROUGH THEN. WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED, WITH
SOME POSSIBLE BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER AT TIMES ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGHS AS A RESULT MAY REACH 80 DEGREES ON TUESDAY.
CONTINUED WARMING IS EXPECTED INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE PRIMARY SURFACE
LOW MOVES EAST NORTHEAST AS THE FRONT STRETCHING FROM CENTRAL TEXAS
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. HIGHS WITH MAYBE SOME BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER AT
TIMES (THOUGH PRIMARILY MOSTLY CLOUDY) COULD HIT THE LOWER 80S.
RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES WILL LIKELY INCREASE SOMETIME LATER IN
THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, AS A STRONGER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING SOUTHWEST FROM THE SURFACE LOW EXITING THE
NORTHEAST STATES PUSHES FURTHER SOUTHEAST INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.
STRONGER FORCING AND SHEAR LOOKS TO SETUP AHEAD OF THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND COULD SPELL A MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE AND HEAVY RAINFALL
THREAT.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1133 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2026
VFR CONDITIONS HAVE PREVAILED SO FAR THIS MORNING AS A LOW STRATUS
DECK SLOWLY MOVES NORTH OVER NW AL. THIS MAY SOON LEAD TO MVFR
CONDITIONS AT KMSL BUT THE EXACT TIMING AND NORTHWARD EXTENT OF
THIS CLOUD LAYER REMAINS OF LOW CONFIDENCE. A LOW CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO EXIST THIS AFTERNOON AND AMENDMENTS MAY BE
NEEDED TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY STORMS THAT WILL IMPACT THE TERMINALS.
REDUCTIONS TO MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY OCCUR WITH ANY
HEAVIER DOWNPOURS. OTHERWISE, LOOK FOR BREEZY SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH
WINDS GUSTING UP TO 20-25KTS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR CIGS
ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA BY 12Z AND WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...25
SHORT TERM....25
LONG TERM....KTW
AVIATION...25
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