287  
FXUS64 KHUN 130522  
AFDHUN  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL  
1222 AM CDT SAT AUG 13 2022  
   
..NEW AVIATION
 
 
   
NEAR TERM
 
 
(TONIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 837 PM CDT FRI AUG 12 2022  
 
QUIET/SEASONABLY MILD WX CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL TN  
VALLEY THIS FRI EVENING, AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO DROP  
SOUTHWARD CLOSER TO THE GULF COAST, WHILE HIGH PRESSURE OUT OF THE  
NORTH SETTLES MORE INTO THE REGION. LINGERING CLOUD COVER FROM  
EARLIER ALSO CONTINUES TO DIMINISH, WITH TEMP TRENDS DROPPING INTO  
THE 70S FOR MOST SPOTS. OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO FALL MORE INTO THE  
MID 60S, UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. SOME PATCHY LIGHT FOG IS ALSO  
POSSIBLE IN THE MORE FOG PRONE AREAS, BUT THE PROB IS NOT HIGH  
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST ATTM.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
 
(SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 1257 PM CDT FRI AUG 12 2022  
 
FLOW AT 5H WILL REMAIN NORTH-NORTHWEST SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY  
BEFORE BACKING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST BY MONDAY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE  
TRANSLATES SOUTHEAST. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE TO  
UPPER 80S, THEN WARM BACK INTO THE LOWER 90S FOR MOST VALLEY  
LOCATIONS SUNDAY (UPPER 80S ATOP THE PLATEAUS). SURFACE FLOW WILL  
BECOME SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AT THE SURFACE BY MONDAY, ELEVATED DEW  
POINTS BACK INTO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70. THIS AS THE SHORTWAVE  
AND A WEAK COOL FRONT DROPS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION. THIS  
WILL BRING AT LEAST LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND A FEW  
THUNDERSTORMS. MLCAPE VALUES LOOK TO REACH THE 2000-2500 J/KG  
RANGE WITH 6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF AROUND 25KT. THUS, STRONG TO  
PERHAPS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME A THREAT.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM
 
 
(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)  
ISSUED AT 1257 PM CDT FRI AUG 12 2022  
 
THE COLD FRONT MAY SNEAK SOUTH ENOUGH TO KEEP THE AREA DRY  
TUESDAY, BUT MODEL CONSENSUS/BLENDS SUGGEST LOW POPS AND THE  
BOUNDARY POSSIBLY HANGING UP. POPS WILL BE GREATEST WEDNESDAY WHEN  
A MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE AND LIKELY MCS DROPS SOUTHEAST INTO  
THE LOWER OH/TN VALLEYS AND MID SOUTH. THIS SYSTEM COULD ALSO POSE  
A RISK OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL GIVEN  
UNSEASONABLY STRONG 5H WINDS OF 30-40KT. SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE  
ON, DEPENDING ON TIMING OF ARRIVAL AND HEATING POTENTIAL AHEAD OF  
THE LINE. WILL KEEP SUGGESTED LOWER POPS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY,  
DESPITE THE FRONT LIKELY PROGRESSING TO OUR SOUTH. HOWEVER, GIVEN  
THE TROUGH POSITION MAINTAINING ITSELF, CANNOT RULE THE  
POSSIBILITY YET.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
(06Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 1222 AM CDT SAT AUG 13 2022  
 
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OUT OF THE NORTH SETTLING INTO MUCH OF THE  
REGION, VFR CONDS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED THRU THE TAF PERIOD.  
LIGHT/VAR WINDS WILL ALSO BECOME ENE AROUND 5-7KT LATE SAT  
MORNING.  
 

 
   
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
AL...NONE.  
TN...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
NEAR TERM...09  
SHORT TERM....17  
LONG TERM....17  
AVIATION...09  
 
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