553
FXUS64 KHUN 270546
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1146 PM CST WED NOV 26 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 946 PM CST WED NOV 26 2025
- NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHTS
- NEXT SYSTEM MOVES IN ON SUNDAY, BRINGING CHANCES FOR RAIN
ACROSS THE AREA
- MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED NEXT MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY
NEAR TERM
(TONIGHT AND THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 946 PM CST WED NOV 26 2025
A COLD AND DRY AIR MASS IS GETTING SETTLED IN ACROSS THE CWA, JUST
IN TIME FOR THANKSGIVING. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR AND
WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S AS CAA
CONTINUES TO FILTER IN THE AIR MASS. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OVER NIGHT.
THANKSGIVING DAY SHOULD FEATURE THE RETURN OF SOME HIGH STRATUS
TO THE AREA AS WE GET UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. CLOUDS
SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA BY ABOUT 15Z, AS SUNSHINE
RETURNS BACK JUST IN TIME FOR AN AMAZING END, WEATHER-WISE TO
YOUR THANKSGIVING. HIGHS THROUGHOUT THE DAY SHOULD REMAIN
UNSEASONABLY COLD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, TO THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR
50, ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. WINDS UP TO 10 KTS WILL
BRING A CHILL TO THE AIR WITH WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE LOW 40S.
SHORT TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 946 PM CST WED NOV 26 2025
CAA WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER IN COLDER AND DRIER AIR ACROSS THE
REGION AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD. SYNOPTICALLY
INFLUENCED RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST BEFORE THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE TROUGH EJECTS OFF
OF THE THE ROCKIES AND BRINGS THE NEXT CHANCES OF POPS LATER IN
THE WEEKEND.
THE COLD AIR MASS WILL BRING HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S ON FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY AFTERNOONS. EVEN COLDER AIR RETURNS THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHTS WITH LOWS NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING (20S AND 30S). SUNNY
SKIES SHOULD PREVAIL ON FRIDAY, HOWEVER, CLOUDS WILL COME BACK
INTO THE FORECAST ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. THIS WILL
BE ACCOMPANIED BY A CHANGE IN WINDS FROM THE NW TO THE S/SE,
HELPING TO ADVECT SOME WARMER AIR AND MOISTURE BACK INTO THE
REGION.
REMEMBER DURING FREEZING WEATHER, MAKE SURE TO PROTECT PEOPLE,
PETS, PIPES, AND PLANTS.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 946 PM CST WED NOV 26 2025
BY SUNDAY MORNING, THE COLD FRONT AND THE ASSOCIATED RAIN SHOWERS
WILL BE MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. BETWEEN
0.5 TO 1 INCHES OF RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT, AND
TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL FALL TO NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY FOR A BRIEF
PERIOD OF A LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX (DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE
SUBFREEZING AIR AND IF IT OVERLAPS WITH ANY RISDUAL MOISTURE),
ESPECIALLY IN OUR SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE COUNTIES. HOWEVER, ANY
WINTRY PRECIPIATION IS WOULD BE VERY BRIEF AND LIGHT, WITH NO
IMPACTS ANTICIPATED. TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY RISE ABOVE
FREEZING, AND MONDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH ONLY
SCATTERED SHOWERS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER
40S DURING THE DAY.
BY MONDAY NIGHT, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS LIKELY TO FORM MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. THE LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOST LIKELY BE TO OUR SOUTH, AND THE COMBINATION OF STRONG UPPER
LEVEL FORCING WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR WIDESPREAD
RAIN THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE. AROUND 1 INCH OF RAIN
SEEMS MOST LIKELY AREA WIDE, BUT THIS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST.
THE NBM SHOWS ROUGHLY A 30% PROBABILITY OF RAINFALL TOTALS ABOVE 1
INCH, AND HEAVIER RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE. THERE WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR VERY LIGHT WINTRY PRECIPITATION DURING A BRIEF
WINDOW AFTER THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT, THOUGH
CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST IS STILL VERY LOW AT THIS POINT. THE
POSITION AND TRACK OF THE LOW IS STILL CHANGING SIGNIFICANTLY WITH
EACH MODEL RUN, SO THERE IS VERY LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN ANY FROZEN
PRECIPITATION. FLURRIES WOULD BE MOST LIKELY TO MIX IN WITH THE
RAIN IN NORTHWESTERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN TENNESSEE. THE STORM
SYSTEM SHOULD BE MOVING OUT QUICKLY, AND PRECIPITATION WILL COME
TO AN END WEDNESDAY MORNING. WEDNESDAY WILL BE DRIER AND SUNNIER,
AND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR 50.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CST WED NOV 26 2025
CIGS (HIGH VFR IN NATURE) WILL PUSH INTO BOTH TERMINALS AFTER 06Z
(KHSV AT 08Z AND KMSL AT 07Z). NW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND
10 KTS AFTER 14Z AND GUST TO BEWTEEN 15 AND 20 KTS, AS CLOUDS
DISSIPATE AND MOVE OUT OF THE AREA.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...AS
SHORT TERM....AS
LONG TERM....IM
AVIATION...GH
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