022
FXUS64 KHUN 240752
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
252 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1059 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2026
- A WET WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS
WITH AN ADDITIONAL 2.5-4 INCHES OF RAIN EXPECTED. THUS, THERE
IS AT LEAST A LOW RISK OF FLOODING INTO NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 252 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2026
CURRENTLY, THERE IS VERY LITTLE SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER NORTH
ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE. HOWEVER, LOOKING UPSTREAM
OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA AND EASTERN MISSISSIPPI, THERE ARE NUMEROUS
SHOWERS MOVING NORTHEAST. THERE HAS BEEN NO LIGHTNING OBSERVED
WITH THESE OVER THE LAST HOUR, HOWEVER. OVERALL, AS SOME MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS SUGGESTED, NOT ANTICIPATING TOO MUCH IN THE WAY OF
SHOWER OR STORM ACTIVITY UNTIL CLOSER TO DAWN. THEN, OUR RAIN
CHANCES INCREASE AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SHOWERS MOVE INTO NORTH
ALABAMA.
WHILE MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES (50-90%) OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
BE THE THEME THROUGH THE DAY TODAY, NOT FORECASTING STRONG/SEVERE
STORMS DUE TO MODELS SHOWING BULK SHEAR VALUES HOVERING AROUND 20
KNOTS OR SO. INSTABILITY SEEMS TO BE LESS THAN WE'VE SEEN IN
RECENT DAYS AS WELL, BUT STILL SUFFICIENT ENOUGH FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. MOISTURE REMAINS ELEVATED AS WELL, WITH MODEL PWATS
BETWEEN 1.5-1.8 INCHES (RIGHT AROUND THE 90TH PERCENTILE WHEN
COMPARED WITH BMX SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY). THEREFORE, EXPECT ANOTHER
DAY OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT WILL BE EFFICIENT RAINFALL
PRODUCERS (HEAVY RAIN/DOWNPOURS) AND BRING FREQUENT LIGHTNING.
REMEMBER, IF YOU ENCOUNTER FLOODED ROADS TURN AROUND, DON'T DROWN!
ALSO, IF YOU HEAR THUNDER OR SEE LIGHTNING, SEEK SHELTER
IMMEDIATELY!
LASTLY, WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES,
HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO ONLY REACH THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S THIS
AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1059 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2026
THE BUILDING HIGH AND A DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW FROM THE GULF OF
AMERICA WILL BRING HIGHER AMOUNTS OF ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE ACROSS
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. PRECIPITABLE WATER AMOUNTS NOW AROUND 1.5"
TO 1.6" WILL INCREASE INTO THE 1.8" TO NEARLY 2" FOR A GOOD PART
OF NEXT WEEK. THIS MOISTURE, ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND
RESULTANT INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IMPACTING THE TENNESSEE VALLEY FOR MUCH OF THE
NEW WEEK.
OVERALL SHOWER COVERAGE SHOULD FADE IN THE EVENING BUT WILL NOT
QUITE ALL GO AWAY. NUMEROUS BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS AND WHAT MAY
OCCUR IS WELL BEYOND WHAT CAN BE FORECAST. LOWS SHOULD FALL INTO
THE MID 60S. MEMORIAL DAY WILL FEATURE UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE
MOST PART, WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM. A LONGER
DURATION OF SHOWERS AND HIGH PRECIP WATER AMOUNTS OF 1.8" TO 1.9"
WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND GUSTY
WINDS. THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER HAS MOST OF THE AREA IN A
SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. THUS THERE WILL BE AN
HEIGHTENED RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING, AS WELL AS MORE SIGNIFICANT
RISES IN AREA CREEKS, STREAMS, AND RIVERS. WITH MORE MORE CLOUDS
AND HIGHER RAIN CHANCES, HIGH TEMPERATURES MEMORIAL DAY SHOULD
ONLY RISE TO AROUND 80 DEGREES.
HIGHER RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY EVENING, WITH RAIN CHANCES
SLIGHTLY LOWER AS WE GO INTO THE OVERNIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES
SHOULD FALL INTO THE MID 60S. ANOTHER WET DAY IS EXPECTED TUESDAY
FOR THE START OF A SHORTER WORK WEEK. WITH MORE CLOUDS AND HIGH
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS, HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE INTO
THE LOWER 80S. HIGH PRECIP WATER AMOUNTS WILL RESULT IN LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. AN ELEVATED RISK FOR MORE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND
FLOODING CANNOT BE RULED OUT IF HEAVY RAINFALL IMPACTS A SIMILAR
LOCATION.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1059 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2026
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK,
WITH DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE CIRCULATION
ROUNDING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFF OF THE EAST COAST WILL CONTINUE
BRINGING DEEP MOISTURE FROM THE GULF REGION WELL INLAND. RAIN
CHANCES HOWEVER WILL BEGIN TO TAKE ON A MORE DIURNAL TREND AS WE
GO INTO THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD
RANGE IN THE LOW/MID 80S AND LOWS IN THE MID 60S. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY FROM THE
NORTH. DEPENDING UPON FAR SOUTH IT MOVES, RAIN CHANCES NEXT WEEK
MAY INDEED BECOME LOWER.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1158 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WITH LITTLE TO NO SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY WERE
PRESENT AT ISSUANCE. HOWEVER, LOWER CIGS TO AT LEAST MVFR ALONG
WITH PATCHY FOG LEADING TO LOWER VIS WILL BE CONCERNS OVERNIGHT
(ESPECIALLY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING). IN ADDITION,
SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN AROUND DAWN,
WITH MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES (50-90%) PERSISTING THROUGH THE DAY
OVER NORTH ALABAMA. LOWER VIS AND CIGS WILL BE COMMON IN THE
HEAVIER SHOWERS. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE TO AROUND 5 KNOTS OR SO BY THE
AFTERNOON. LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL THEN TAKE HOLD SUNDAY EVENING.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM....RSB
LONG TERM....RSB
AVIATION...26
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