401
FXUS64 KHUN 290945
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
345 AM CST SAT NOV 29 2025
..NEW NEAR TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 958 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2025
- COLD RAIN MOVES IN LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUES THROUGH SUNDAY
(70-90% CHANCE).
- WIND CHILLS DROP INTO THE MID-TEENS ON MONDAY MORNING.
- MORE COLD RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES, FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY (80-90% CHANCE).
NEAR TERM
(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST SAT NOV 29 2025
EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN INTO THE UPPER 20S/LOWER
30S WITH LIGHT WINDS AND INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SLIGHTLY WARMER TODAY AS AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH
PUSHES THE SURFACE HIGH EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS AND SC FLOW
SLOWLY BEGINS TO VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE RESULTANT CAD SETUP
WILL CAUSE DRY AIR TO LINGER IN THE LOWER LEVELS THROUGHOUT THE
DAY TODAY. AFTER SOME LIKELY VIRGA IN THE AFTERNOON, AN AREA OF
SHOWERS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT IN THE EVENING HOURS. LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 0.25".
SHORT TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 958 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2025
RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY
BOTTOMING OUT IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S OVERNIGHT, WHICH REMOVES
ANY POTENTIAL FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION. SUNDAY WILL BE DREARY IN
THE MORNING WITH LINGERING COLD RAIN AND THEN ONLY WARM INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 40S.
POST-FRONTAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL BEHIND THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. SUNDAY NIGHT WILL SEE TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE
MID 50S, BUT WINDS GUSTING 15-20 MPH WILL CAUSE WIND CHILLS TO
REACH THE MID-TEENS. PROGRESSING INTO MONDAY, THE SUBTROPICAL JET
PHASES WITH THE PRIMARY JET AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LONGWAVE
TROUGH. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST WILL STREAM MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE TN VALLEY.
CLOUD COVER INCREASES MONDAY AFTERNOON AND RAIN PUSHES IN FROM
THE SOUTHWEST, CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES
STEADILY DECREASE FROM THE MID 40S TUESDAY MORNING DOWN TO THE
UPPER 20S BY TUESDAY NIGHT. WHILE THE TROUGH AXIS AND ATTENDANT
SURFACE LOW PUSH EAST OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY NIGHT, THE FLY IN THE
OINTMENT WOULD BE ANY WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WHILE SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE SUB-ZERO. A PASSING JET STREAK MAY PROVIDE
SUFFICIENT LIFT TO PRODUCE NON-IMPACTFUL FLURRIES TUESDAY NIGHT,
BUT CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW (10% CHANCE).
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 958 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2025
THE COLD AIR MASS REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRACK OVER
THE SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW ON THURSDAY WILL
INCREASE CLOUD COVER THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THERE IS DISAGREEMENT
BETWEEN GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MODELS IN HOW QUICKLY THE NEXT SYSTEM
ARRIVES. AT THIS POINT, IT LOOKS LIKE LATE NEXT WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND WILL SEE A RETURN OF RAIN. WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR HOW
THIS OVERLAPS WITH THE ARRIVAL OF COLDER AIR. OTHERWISE, HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK NEAR 50 EACH DAY WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S
TO LOW 30S.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AND
THROUGH MUCH OF TOMORROW WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN AND WIND
SHEAR TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. WILL HAVE PERIODS OF HIGH
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS TOMORROW BEFORE
MORE MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER BEGINS TO FILTER IN AHEAD OF OUR NEXT
STORM SYSTEM. DID ADD PROB30 GROUPS FOR RAIN CHANCES AFTER 00Z
TOMORROW WITH SOUTHERN WIND SHEAR NEAR 40KTS AT 2KFT TOMORROW
NIGHT AT KMSL.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...25
SHORT TERM....30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...25
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