520
FXUS64 KHUN 251648
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1048 AM CST THU DEC 25 2025
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1048 AM CST THU DEC 25 2025
- TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH SUNDAY, WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 60S-MID 70S AND LOWS IN THE MID 50S-LOWER 60S.
- A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. A BAND OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRECEDE THE FRONT, AND THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED
BY A RAPID DROP IN TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1048 AM CST THU DEC 25 2025
IN THE MID/UPPER-LEVELS, A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS THE
GULF WILL GRADUALLY DEAMPLIFY OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEAR TERM
PERIOD AS A DISTINCT MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY.
HOWEVER, THIS WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON SENSIBLE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TN VALLEY, AS FLOW ALOFT BACKS TO WNW BUT
REMAINS IN THE 25-35 KNOT RANGE. AT THE SURFACE, A WEAK AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE (INITIALLY ACROSS THE UPPER OH VALLEY) WILL QUICKLY
PHASE WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT SWEEPING SOUTHEASTWARD OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST TODAY. IN THE WAKE OF THIS LOW, A MORE
DIFFUSE/TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH
THE OH VALLEY AND INTO THE MID-MS VALLEY THIS MORNING, FOCUSING
SHOWER ACTIVITY WELL TO OUR NORTH. AS SURFACE PRESSURES FALL
ACROSS WESTERN KS (IN RESPONSE TO THE NORTHEASTWARD ADVANCING MID-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH), THIS BOUNDARY WILL EVOLVE INTO A WARM
FRONT OVER THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON/EVENING, PERHAPS PROVIDING
A MINOR UPTICK IN THE COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTHEAST
OF OUR CWFA. ALTHOUGH A STRAY LIGHT SHOWER OR SPRINKLE OF RAIN MAY
IMPACT THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CWFA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING (BEFORE THE WARM FRONT LIFTS FURTHER
NORTHEASTWARD), POPS REMAIN VERY LOW (5-10%).
OTHERWISE, LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE LOW-LEVELS WILL BE
MAINTAINED ACROSS OUR REGION TODAY, WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
WIND SPEEDS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS A HIGH ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST WEAKENS AND DRIFTS SOUTHEASTWARD AND A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW
SHIFTS NORTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHERN IL. THE COMBINATION OF
MOISTURE ADVECTION AND WEAK LOW-LEVEL ASCENT IN THIS REGIME HAS
CONTRIBUTED TO A QUICK TRANSITION TO OVERCAST LOW STRATUS CLOUDS
(FROM LOCALLY DENSE FOG OBSERVED EARLIER THIS MORNING), AND THIS
CLOUD LAYER SHOULD BECOME EVEN MORE DENSE AND DESCEND AS WE HEAD
INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON/OVERNIGHT HOURS. BASED ON CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS, HIGHS WILL BE A BIT COOLER TODAY (RANGING FROM THE
MID 60S IN ELEVATED TERRAIN TO THE U60S-L70S IN THE VALLEY).
CONVERSELY, OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A BIT WARMER AND IN THE M-U
50S. ALTHOUGH SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE STRATUS
LAYER DESCENDS (ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT), WE WILL KEEP POPS FOR
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION LESS THAN 10%.
SHORT TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1048 AM CST THU DEC 25 2025
DURING THE PERIOD FROM FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT, A SURFACE LOW
(INITIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN IL) WILL TRAVEL EASTWARD THROUGH THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES AND INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN MID-
ATLANTIC STATES, WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT PREDICTED TO ADVANCE
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS BEFORE EVENTUALLY
STALLING FROM OZARKS INTO THE NORTHERN TN VALLEY. A NOTABLE
INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE
TN VALLEY DURING THE DAY TOMORROW AS THIS OCCURS, WITH SUSTAINED
SPEEDS OF 10-15 MPH AND OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH. OVERCAST
LOW STRATUS CLOUDS AND PATCHES OF LIGHT DRIZZLE WILL ALSO BE
COMMON THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS SURFACE DEWPOINTS RISE SLOWLY INTO
THE LOWER 60S, WITH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS (CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
WETTING RAINFALL AT THE SURFACE) POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING.
PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT A NEW SURFACE LOW WILL EVOLVE ACROSS
WESTERN KS DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY, IN ADVANCE OF AN
AMPLIFYING NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. AS THIS OCCURS, LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BACK TO THE
SSW AND BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN ONCE AGAIN (AFTER A TEMPORARY DECREASE
IN WIND SPEEDS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT). THIS CONFIGURATION WILL
MAINTAIN A WARM/MOIST AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION, WITH AT LEAST A
BROKEN COVERAGE OF LOW STRATUS CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGHS BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
WILL BE IN THE L-M 70S, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE M50S-L60S.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 907 PM CST WED DEC 24 2025
MODELS HAVE DELAYED THE TIMING OF THE ANTICIPATED COLD FRONT BY
ABOUT 24 HOURS OVER THE PAST 2 DAYS. WHAT WAS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST
TO MOVE THROUGH ON SUNDAY NOW LOOKS LIKE IT WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL
MONDAY MORNING, GIVING US ONE MORE DAY OF HIGHS IN THE 70S ON
SUNDAY. HAVE NO FEAR THOUGH, IF YOU ARE TIRED OF THE WARMTH AND
READY FOR WINTER TO RETURN, IT WILL BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. POPS WILL
INCREASE TO 60-80% MONDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND
SHOULD DRY UP BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. ANY CHANCE OF A LIGHT
WINTRY MIX WILL BE MINIMIZED ESPECIALLY IF THE CURRENT TIMING
TRENDS HOLD AND THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS STILL LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW 0.25" AND WHILE THE
COLD FRONT WILL BE STRONG, NO SEVERE WEATHER IS FORECAST AT THIS
TIME. TEMPS WILL PLUMMET BEHIND THE FRONT, WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S
ON MONDAY THEN DROPPING TO THE 30S ON TUESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
FALL TO THE UPPER TEENS/LOW 20S WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE LOW TEENS
TUESDAY MORNING.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 546 AM CST THU DEC 25 2025
FOG HAS BECOME AN ISSUE, THANKS TO LONG NIGHTS AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES (CONDUCIVE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT) AND LIGHT WINDS. OVER THE
PAST HOUR OR SO, CONDITIONS AT THE KMSL/KHSV TERMINALS HAVE
DETERIORATED DUE TO FOG FORMING. COMPLICATING THIS MATTER IS AN
AREA OF MVFR STRATUS MOVING IN FROM THE NW. THESE LOW CLOUDS,
ALONG WITH SUNRISE AND STRONGER WINDS AFTERWARD SHOULD HELP
MINIMIZE FOG AS WE GO INTO THE LATER MORNING. FOR NOW, HAVE BOTH
TERMINALS PREVAILING AT MVFR WITH IFR REDUCTIONS, WITH THESE
VALUES ADJUSTED TO ACCOUNT FOR VSBY FLUCTUATIONS. CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE LATER THIS MORNING AND IN THE AFTERNOON WITH HIGHER
WINDS AND MIXING RAISING VSBY ABOVE 6SM. CLOUD BASES SHOULD ALSO
RISE, BUT WILL NOT GET TO VFR UNTIL THE MID AND LATTER AFTERNOON.
DEPENDING UPON HOW CLEAR SKIES BECOME LATE TODAY COULD SET THE
STAGE FOR MORE FOG IN ABOUT 24 HOURS.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...70/DD
SHORT TERM...70/DD
LONG TERM...25
AVIATION...RSB
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