420
FXUS64 KHUN 100741
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
241 AM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 240 AM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
- THERE IS A LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EARLY THIS MORNING.
- THERE IS A LOW TO MEDIUM RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
EVENING INTO EARLY THURSDAY.
- COOLER CONDITIONS RETURN THURSDAY, BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM
AS WE GO INTO THE WEEKEND BEFORE THE NEXT COLD FRONT ARRIVES ON
SUNDAY.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 240 AM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
AT THIS HOUR, THERE ARE A FEW SHOWERS ON RADAR ACROSS THE TN
VALLEY AND MORE CONTINUE TO POP UP THANKS TO A PASSING SHORTWAVE
JUST TO OUR NORTH. GREATEST COVERAGE WILL BE EAST OF A LINE FROM
ATHENS TO GUNTERSVILLE. THERE IS ELEVATED INSTABILITY TO TAP INTO
AND DECENT SHEAR, SO STORMS WILL BE MONITORED AS A FEW COULD
BECOME STRONG. WITH MOST OF US GETTING A DECENT RAINFALL
YESTERDAY (MAINLY 1-2" WITH ISOLATED 3"), WE WILL MONITOR STORMS
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL THAT COULD CAUSE FLOODING CONCERNS. COVERAGE
WILL WEAN WITH SUNRISE AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
LUNCH. HIGH RES MODELS ARE NOT VERY ADVENTUROUS WITH LOW CHANCE
(20%) OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON WHEN THERE IS DIURNAL
HEATING WITH DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE. DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER, WAA
FROM WINDS 5-10 MPH AND GUSTS 15 MPH WILL PUSH DAYTIME HIGHS TO
A RECORD OF 80 DEGREES AT KHSV.
SHORT TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1055 PM CDT MON MAR 9 2026
ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT MAINLY NEAR THE AL/TN
BORDER TUE EVENING. OTHERWISE A LAST MILD NIGHT FOR A FEW DAYS,
WITH LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 60S. WED WILL BE THE LAST WARM DAY FOR A
FEW DAYS WITH HIGHS RISING FROM THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80.
A CUTOFF UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN BAJA COAST WILL CONTINUE
MOVING TO THE NE, MERGING WITH THE MAIN WESTERLY FLOW IN THE
OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY, THEN BECOME PART OF A PROGRESSIVE TROUGH
THAT SHOULD MOVE IN A WEST TO EAST MANNER ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CONUS WED/THU. THE TROUGH WILL TAKE ON A NEUTRAL TILT AS
IT SWEEPS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AS IT'S UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM TRAVERSES THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES, IT WILL HELP A SURFACE LOW
FORM EAST OF THE FRONT RANGE TUE. THIS AND A DEVELOPING PRIMARY
SURFACE LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BEGINNING
LATE WED AFTERNOON.
THIS TIMEFRAME IS JUST GETTING TO THE END OF THE MESOSCALE
FORECAST MODEL RANGE. THE FV3 THAT GOES OUT TO THURSDAY MORNING
SHOWS THE LINE WEAKENING AS IT PROGRESSES IN A NW-SE MANNER ACROSS
THE AREA. THE OTHER MODELS WERE SHOWING SIMILAR IDEAS, WITH
CONVECTION REACHING NW ALABAMA THE LATTER HALF OF WED AFTERNOON,
AND CONTINUING TO THE SE INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SHOWER
ACTIVITY SHOULD END FROM NW TO SE IN THE LATE NIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING. THE CONVECTION POISED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA APPEARS
WILL BE IN A QUASI-LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEM MODE. THUS THE MAIN
THREATS APPEAR TO BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. TORNADOES CANNOT BE
RULED OUT IN THESE SITUATIONS. A MORE NORTHERN DISPLACEMENT OF THE
PARENT LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL HELP TO MINIMIZE THE TORNADO
THREAT SOMEWHAT. VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THIS
LINE OF CONVECTION. GIVEN THE RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL MUCH OF THE
AREA RECENTLY EXPERIENCED FROM THIS EVENINGS CONVECTION, THERE
WILL BE A HEIGHTENED RISK OF FLASH FLOODING LATE WED NIGHT INTO
THU MORNING.
AS ALLUDED TO ABOVE, A COOLER CHANGE IS ON THE WAY WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THIS NEXT SYSTEM. WITH THE COLD FRONT PASSING IN THE
OVERNIGHT, COLDER AIR WEST OF IT WILL RESULT IN LOW TEMPERATURES
BY DAYBREAK THU DROPPING INTO LOW/MID 40S, A GOOD 20-25 DEGREES
COLDER THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT! THE HIGHS LATER THU WILL BE A
REALITY CHECK AS THEY STRUGGLE INTO THE MID 50S, OR AROUND 20
DEGREES COLDER THAN WED. A STEADY NORTHERLY WIND OF 10-20 MPH,
STRONGER IN THE MORNING WILL ADD TO THE CHILL.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1055 PM CDT MON MAR 9 2026
LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO
THE 35 TO 40 DEGREE RANGE. SOME AREAS OF FROST COULD OCCUR. THOUGH
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL WEAKEN SOME ON FRIDAY, COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL
STILL HELP TO KEEP HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO UPPER 60S.
THIS FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, BUT THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY SHOULD REMAIN DRY. BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BECOME
MORE SOUTHERLY, ALLOWING BETTER MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE AREA.
THIS SHOULD KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS A BIT WARMER, ONLY DROPPING INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 40S PRIMARILY. WITH SUNNY SKIES ON SATURDAY, HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WARMER TOPPING OFF IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S
AGAIN COURTESY OF THE EVOLVING ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.
BY SATURDAY NIGHT, ANOTHER LONGWAVE TROUGH DIGS SOUTHEAST FROM THE
NORTHWESTERN CONUS. UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION
SOUTHWEST INTO NORTHEASTERN TEXAS. MORE SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND WARM AIR ADVECTION SETS UP OVER THE SOUTHEAST IN
RESPONSE. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM ONLY DROPPING INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 50S.
NOT MUCH CLOUD COVER EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT OVER NORTHERN ALABAMA. THOUGH CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. DESPITE CLOUD COVER STRENGTHENING
LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT
SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO CLIMB BACK INTO THE 75 TO 80 DEGREE RANGE.
MOST GUIDANCE DEVELOPS STRONG FORCING AHEAD OF THE FRONT, BUT THE
DEEPEST FORCING MAY BE CONCENTRATED OVER NORTHERN TENNESSEE INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. EITHER WAY, AT LEAST
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AHEAD OF IT SEEMS LIKE A
GOOD BET FURTHER SOUTH INTO NORTHERN AL. SHEAR WOULD BE AMPLE FOR
ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. ENSEMBLE DOES SHOW 500 J/KG OR
LESS OF SBCAPE WITH 200-300 M2/S2 HELICITY OVER THE AREA DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON/VERY EARLY EVENING HOURS. SO WE MAY HAVE ANOTHER LOW
END STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM SETUP WITH THIS SYSTEM. HIGHS
WITH MORNING SUNSHINE MAY CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S DESPITE
AFTERNOON CLOUD COVER.
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING ANOTHER SHOT OF COLDER AIR PUSHING
BACK INTO THE AREA BEHIND THIS SYSTEM. GIVEN HOW FAR OUT THIS SYSTEM
IS, THIS COULD CHANGE AT WE GET CLOSER TO THAT TIMEFRAME. HIGHS MAY
DROP BACK INTO THE 50S AND 60S.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1235 AM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
CONVECTION THAT EARLIER IMPACTED THE AREA HAS SHIFTED WELL TO OUR
SOUTH AND EAST. LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTING ACROSS THE AREA WAS
PRODUCING MVFR TO VFR CIGS. THESE LOWER CLOUDS, ALONG WITH A SE
WIND OF 5-10KT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO KEEP THE SURFACE STIRRED
AND LIMIT THE FORMATION OF FOG. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM NEARING
FROM THE OZARKS COULD BRING FEW TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE AREA IN THE LATE NIGHT. CHANCES FOR THEM HAS BEEN ON A
GRADUAL DIMINISHING TREND, THUS HAVE PROB30 RATHER THAN TEMPO TO
NOTE RAIN CHANCES. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON COULD DEVELOP THANKS TO DAYTIME HEATING PRODUCED
INSTABILITY AND DEEP MOISTURE ALREADY AVAILABLE. SE WINDS SHOULD
BECOME SOUTHERLY AFTER DAYBREAK AT 5-10KT, THEN BACK TO A SE-S
DIRECTION LATE IN THE TAF.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...JMS
SHORT TERM....RSB
LONG TERM....KTW
AVIATION...RSB
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