964
FXUS64 KHUN 170812
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
312 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1017 PM CDT THU APR 16 2026
- VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TODAY, WITH HIGHS REACHING
THE UPPER 80S IN MOST LOCATIONS. THESE VALUES WILL COME WITHIN
A COUPLE DEGREES OF RECORD VALUES FOR APRIL 17TH.
- THERE IS A HIGH (60-90%) CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE
GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.
- A COOL/DRY AIRMASS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION SUNDAY AND
MONDAY, FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THURSDAY.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2026
JUST A FEW LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS WERE NOTED ON RADAR ACROSS
MIDDLE TENNESSEE AS OF 08Z. THESE SHOWERS MAY CLIP PORTIONS OF THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY IN THE PREDAWN HOURS, BUT MOST LOCATIONS WILL
REMAIN DRY. SOME SCATTERED BANDS OF MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL PASS
THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING, BUT A MOSTLY SUNNY/CLEAR SKY WILL
DEVELOP FOR MUCH OF THE DAY, THANKS TO THE RIDGE TO OUR SOUTH
BUILDING NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA. AMPLE SUNSHINE AND DEEP
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN A VERY WARM DAY, WITH HIGHS
CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S IN MOST LOCATIONS. THESE
FORECASTED VALUES MAY BECOME WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF RECORD
HIGH VALUES FOR THE DATE, APRIL 17TH (90 DEGREES - HSV AND 92
DEGREES MSL, BOTH IN 2006). THE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL ALSO
CONTINUE TO ADVECT GULF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA AS SEEN BY
DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. THIS WILL KEEP
MIN RH VALUES IN THE 40-45 PERCENT RANGE.
SHORT TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1017 PM CDT THU APR 16 2026
LATEST SHORT RANGE MODEL DATA STILL INDICATES THAT THE NORTHERN
STREAM TROUGH AND SURFACE CYCLONE WILL BOTH DEEPEN CONSIDERABLY AS
THEY TRACK NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF HUDSON BAY
BY 12Z SUNDAY, WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT PREDICTED TO SURGE
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS AND INTO THE MID-MS VALLEY
BY SATURDAY MORNING AND INTO THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF OUR CWFA BY
LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH CONVECTION ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE FRONT (FROM THE LOWER OH VALLEY SOUTHWESTWARD) WILL
UNDERGO A WEAKENING PHASE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, REINVIGORATION
OF SHOWERS/STORMS IS EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS AS THE WIND SHIFT ENTERS OUR REGION. THE RISK FOR STRONG
STORMS REMAINS UNCERTAIN, AS IT IS UNCLEAR IF THE COMBINATION OF
DEWPOINTS BRIEFLY RISING INTO THE MID 60S AND INCREASING BROAD
SCALE LIFT WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO ERODE LINGERING CINH. IF IT IS
NOT, THE FRONT MAY HAVE A TENDENCY TO UNDERCUT CONVECTION,
RESULTING IN ELEVATED UPDRAFTS. HOWEVER, IF IT IS, MID-LEVEL WSW
FLOW WILL BE STRENGTHENING INTO THE 45-55 KNOT RANGE AND COULD
SUPPORT SOME INSTANCES OF STRONG WIND AND SMALL HAIL (PARTICULARLY
AS THE FRONT ENTERS NORTHWEST AL). REGARDLESS OF SCENARIO, THE
FRONT WILL MAKE STEADY SOUTHEASTWARD PROGRESSION THROUGH THE
REGION SATURDAY EVENING (EXITING SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT), WITH
LIGHT POSTFRONTAL RAIN EXPECTED TO END BY SUNRISE. STORM TOTAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM ~0.75"/NW TO ~0.25"/SE.
IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT, GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
ADVECT A COOLER/DRIER MIXTURE OF CANADIAN AND NORTH PACIFIC AIR
INTO THE REGION, WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY RANGING FROM THE LOWER 60S
(ELEVATED TERRAIN) TO M-U 60S (ELSEWHERE) EVEN WITH ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. AS HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE MS VALLEY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON,
WINDS WILL SUBSIDE, MAKING FOR A COOL NIGHT FEATURING LOWS IN THE
L-M 40S MONDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1017 PM CDT THU APR 16 2026
AS AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD, UPPER
RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION AND LARGELY MAINTAIN ITS HOLD
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. ALTHOUGH, SOME
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A FEW SUBTLE SHORTWAVES WILL FORM OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND PROGRESS DOWN INTO THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY. AT THIS TIME, IT DOESN'T LOOK LIKE THESE WILL
BRING TOO MUCH IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.
MEANWHILE, AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE THEME OVER
MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS EARLY IN THE WEEK. THIS FEATURE LOOKS TO
EVENTUALLY SHIFT TO BE CONCENTRATED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES
AND OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS. THEREFORE, OTHER THAN PERHAPS
AN INCREASE IN SOME CLOUDS AROUND MIDWEEK, NO RAIN IS FORECAST
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. ADDITIONALLY, A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
TEMPERATURES IS ANTICIPATED DURING THIS TIME. HIGHS ON MONDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE MILD, IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
LOWS THAT NIGHT WILL THEN DIP INTO THE 40S. HOWEVER, LOWS ARE
FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE 50S BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGHS
REACHING THE LOWER 80S BY THURSDAY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1214 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT FLIGHT CATEGORY THROUGH
THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE SW/WSW AT 5-10 MPH
THROUGH THE DAY, WITH SOME SCATTERED CU AND HIGH CIRRUS PASSING
OVERHEAD.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...AMP.24
SHORT TERM....70
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...AMP
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