523
FXUS64 KHUN 301321
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
821 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 820 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2026
- A WARM, MOIST AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEK,
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S EACH DAY, WITH LOWS IN
THE 60S.
- LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO
THE FORECAST ON TUESDAY.
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE STARTING WEDNESDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. SOME STRONGER STORMS COULD DEVELOP BY
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 820 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2026
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND BROKEN DECKS OF STRATUS HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES
ON THE MILD SIDE THIS MORNING, WITH 13Z READINGS IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S. THESE CLOUDS WILL HANG AROUND THROUGH MIDDAY, BEFORE
GRADUALLY BREAKING UP BY THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND SOME ADDITIONAL HEATING LATER IN THE DAY SHOULD BE
ABLE TO WARM HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 70S IN MOST AREAS BY
THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS MAY BECOME GUSTY AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON, BUT
THEY WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH (KEEPING MIN RH VALUES ABOVE 50
PERCENT). WE'LL REMAIN FAIRLY MILD AGAIN OVERNIGHT SOME CLOUD
COVER RETURNS AFTER MIDNIGHT, WITH LOWS REMAINING ABOVE 60
DEGREES IN MOST LOCATIONS.
SHORT TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 820 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2026
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OFF TO THE EAST (OFF THE COAST
OF THE CAROLINAS), BUT THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL STILL REMAIN
UNDER ITS INFLUENCE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. AS A RESULT,
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO REINFORCE A WARM, MOIST
AIR MASS ACROSS THE REGION BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE,
A BROAD UPPER-TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL AMPLIFY
AS IT ATTEMPTS TO PUSH NORTHEAST INTO THE UPPER-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
AND GREAT LAKES. A COUPLE WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL RIPPLE ACROSS THE
MID SOUTH AND TENNESSEE VALLEY ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THIS
FEATURE BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THOUGH FORCING WILL BE FAIRLY
WEAK, SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT TO GENERATE SOME LOW
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS (20-30%) ON TUESDAY AND LOW
TO MEDIUM CHANCES (30-50%) ON WEDNESDAY. THIS ACTIVITY, WON'T BE
ORGANIZED DUE TO THE WEAK SHEAR AND MODEST INSTABILITY. DESPITE
THE AFTERNOON CLOUD COVER AND STORMS, SOUTHERLY AND PARTIAL
SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO WARM TO THE LOWER 80S BOTH DAYS.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1053 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2026
THESE TRENDS CONTINUE INTO THE DAY ON THURSDAY WITH THE UPPER
RIDGE SHIFTING FURTHER EAST AND STRENGTHENING OFF THE ATLANTIC
COAST. THIS REALLY PROVES AS AN IMPETUS FOR THE LONGWAVE TROUGH
AXIS EARLIER MENTIONED TO PUSH INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. HOWEVER,
ANOTHER LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS BY
EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE PUSHES EAST INTO THE UPPER
RIDGE THURSDAY NIGHT, BUT MOST GUIDANCE REALLY WEAKENS THIS AS IT
TRIES TO DO THAT. THAT BEING SAID, SOME STRONGER FORCING WILL
PUSH INTO AREAS WEST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR DURING THAT PERIOD.
GIVEN THE VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT THOUGH AND SOME INSTABILITY,
SOME MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK VERY POSSIBLE.
AGAIN SHEAR IS VERY WEAK, SO NO STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THURSDAY LOOKS WARMER WITH LESS CLOUD COVER
EARLY, BEFORE INCREASING IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS COULD REACH THE
LOWER TO MID 80S.
DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY, THE STRONGER FORCING PUSHES EAST ACROSS
NORTHERN ALABAMA. THIS LIKELY WILL BE OUR MOST WIDESPREAD PERIOD
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS, BUT NOT EXPECTING A LOT OF RAINFALL (ONLY
BETWEEN AROUND ONE HALF OF AN INCH). AGAIN NOT MUCH SHEAR, SO
MAINLY SHOWERS AND GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED.
AT THE SAME TIME ON FRIDAY, A STRONGER STORM SYSTEM PUSHES FROM
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE FRONT OVER THE
AREA GENERALLY JUST WEAKENS AND STALLS JUST EAST OF ALABAMA.
GIVEN THE WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM, ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SHOULD CONTINUE, BUT THEY SHOULD BE GARDEN
VARIETY. CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S.
THE STRONGER STORM SYSTEM MOVES FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO OHIO
VALLEY REGION BY SATURDAY. MODELS HINT AT MUCH STRONGER DYNAMICS
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM DEVELOPING. HOWEVER, THE STRONG UPPER RIDGING
BUILDS BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP
STRONGER FORCING AHEAD OF THIS NEXT SYSTEM TO OUR WEST THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
STRONGER FORCING AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. OVERALL THE SYSTEM WEAKENS FROM
EARLIER STRENGTH. HOWEVER, STRONG FORCING WILL STILL BE IN PLACE
AHEAD OF IT. SO WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SHEAR IS AROUND 30 TO 35 KTS,
SO A LOW END STRONG TO SEVERE SETUP MAY DEVELOP WITH THAT SYSTEM.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 638 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN THIS MORNING WITH THE MID LEVEL STRATUS
DECK BEGINNING TO CLEAR LATER TODAY. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
SOUTHERLY TODAY, AND COULD GUST UP TO 15-20KTS AT TIMES THIS
AFTERNOON AT KMSL.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...AMP.24
SHORT TERM....AMP.24
LONG TERM....KTW
AVIATION...25
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