505
FXUS64 KHUN 210445
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1045 PM CST TUE JAN 20 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1003 PM CST TUE JAN 20 2026
- MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY.
- MAJOR IMPACTS EXPECTED WITH A WINTER STORM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY.
- DANGEROUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH
SINGLE DIGIT WIND CHILLS FORECAST.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1003 PM CST TUE JAN 20 2026
WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST, LIGHT WINDS AND
CLEAR SKIES ARE FORECAST TONIGHT. AS A RESULT, IDEAL RADIATIONAL
COOLING WILL DROP OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO THE LOW TO MID
20S. AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO THE EAST TOMORROW, SOUTHERLY FLOW
RETURNS BRINGING BOTH AN INCREASE IN OUR TEMPERATURES AND
MOISTURE. AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO RISE INTO THE LOWER 50S.
AT THE SAME TIME, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE
CENTRAL CONUS WITH A SFC LOW EJECTING EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. TO THE SOUTH OF THIS SFC CYCLONE, A COLD FRONT STRETCHING
ALL THE WAY SOUTH TOWARDS THE MS RIVER VALLEY WILL PUSH EASTWARD
THROUGH THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY. RAIN WILL BEGIN TO
PUSH IN FROM WEST TO EAST AROUND LUNCHTIME WEDNESDAY AND
OVERSPREADING THE ENTIRE AREA BY THE LATE AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1003 PM CST TUE JAN 20 2026
THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT CONTINUES ITS PROGRESSION THROUGH
THE TN VALLEY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. MEDIUM TO HIGH
CHANCES (60-80%) FOR RAIN CONTINUE UNTIL THURSDAY MORNING. LATEST
FORECAST GUIDANCE INDICATES THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWS OR STALLS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/NORTHERN AL DURING THE DAY ON
THURSDAY. THIS WILL KEEP MEDIUM CHANCES (40-60%) FOR ON AND OFF
RAIN INTO FRIDAY MORNING. DESPITE ALL DAY PRECIPITATION,
AFTERNOON HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOWER 50S. THE
COLD FRONT SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST BY FRIDAY
RESULTING IN A COLDER AIRMASS FILTERING IN FROM THE NORTH. THERE
SHOULD BE A LULL IN THE PRECIP DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON ON FRIDAY, BUT GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN THE ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE WILL MAINTAIN THE BLENDED LOW TO MEDIUM (30-40%) OF LIGHT
RAIN.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1003 PM CST TUE JAN 20 2026
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN MAJOR IMPACTS FROM A WINTER
STORM ACROSS THE TN VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TAKE
SOME TIME NOW TO MAKE NECESSARY PREPARATIONS AHEAD OF THIS STORM.
IN SHORT, WHERE YOU ARE FRIDAY NIGHT IS WHERE YOU WILL LIKELY BE
STUCK THROUGH MONDAY AS A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIP COMBINED WITH
SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL MAKE FOR HAZARDOUS TRAVEL.
AS AN ARCTIC AIRMASS FILTERS IN FRIDAY, TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST
TO DIP BELOW FREEZING. A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIP WILL BEGIN TO
OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST STARTING FRIDAY NIGHT. A
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS SOUTHERN CA WILL EJECT
EASTWARD AND IN RESPONSE, THE UPPER LEVEL JET WILL STRENGTHEN
RESULTING A VERY FAVORABLE SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE LOCAL
FORECAST AREA. THE BIGGEST QUESTION IS WHAT TYPE OF PRECIP WILL
FALL? ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A SMALL WARM NOSE ALOFT
IN THE VERTICAL PROFILE. THIS WILL RESULT IN ALL TYPES OF WINTRY
PRECIP INCLUDING SNOW, ICE, AND FREEZING RAIN. WHAT DOES APPEAR
LIKELY IS THAT FURTHER NORTH OF THE TN RIVER THERE ARE HIGHER
PROBABILITIES OF SNOW AND FURTHER SOUTH THE PROBABILITIES INCREASE
FOR BOTH FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET. AT THIS TIME RANGE, THERE IS
TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO PUT EXACT AMOUNTS OF SNOW, ICE, OR SLEET,
BUT REGARDLESS MAJOR IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED. THEREFORE, WE WILL WAIT
TO ISSUE ANY WINTER HEADLINES.
PRECIP COMES TO AN END SUNDAY EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST. IN ITS
WAKE, A VERY COLD AIRMASS PUSHES IN BRINGING DANGEROUSLY COLD
CONDITIONS TO THE TN VALLEY. OVERNIGHT LOWS SUNDAY DROP DOWN INTO
THE LOWER TEENS WITH WIND CHILLS NEAR ZERO. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN BELOW FREEZING ON MONDAY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS DROPPING DOWN
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS. FORTUNATELY BY MONDAY NIGHT WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN LIGHT KEEPING WIND CHILLS AT THE OBSERVED TEMPERATURES. WE
FINALLY WARM UP ABOVE FREEZING ON TUESDAY, BUT ONLY INTO THE MID
30S. UNFORTUNATELY, THIS PROLONGED STRETCH OF COLD WEATHER WILL
LIKELY KEEP HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1045 PM CST TUE JAN 20 2026
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW. RAIN BEGINS TO
OVERSPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND CONTINUES
THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. EXPECT CIGS TO GRADUALLY LOWER
THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT WITH FUEL ALTERNATE CIGS BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR IFR CLOUDS TO PUSH IN BEFORE
06Z, BUT HELD OFF ON THIS FORECAST.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 508 PM CST TUE JAN 20 2026
MODERATE AND/OR HIGH RISK FOR MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES:
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER HAS INCLUDED THE ENTIRE TENNESSEE
VALLEY IN A MODERATE RISK FOR MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
BETWEEN JANUARY 28, 2026 THROUGH FEBRUARY 1, 2026. THEREFORE,
THERE IS A 40-60% CHANCE FOR TEMPERATURES BELOW 18-21 DEGREES F
DURING THIS PERIOD.
MORE INFORMATION ON THE CPC U.S. HAZARDS OUTLOOK CAN BE FOUND AT:
HTTPS://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/PREDICTIONS/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...GH
SHORT TERM....GH
LONG TERM....GH
AVIATION...GH
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