888
FXUS64 KHUN 261417
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
917 AM CDT SUN MAR 26 2023
..NEW NEAR TERM
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY)
ISSUED AT 916 AM CDT SUN MAR 26 2023
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED OVER CENTRAL AL WILL SLOWLY SHIFT NORTH
TODAY, LEADING TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER MUCH OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTH AL. MUCH OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY REMAINS UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
NORTHEAST OVER THE APPALACHIANS TODAY. BECAUSE OF THIS, A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS COULD EXTEND INTO NORTHEAST AL ALONG AND EAST OF
THE TN RIVER, BUT NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY
TODAY. DID ADJUST HIGH TEMPERATURES UP BY A FEW DEGREES TODAY
AFTER LOOKING AT LATEST OBS AND TRENDS, MAKING FOR A WARM SPRING
DAY WITH HIGHS NEAR 80 DEGREES. OTHERWISE, NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
WERE MADE DURING THE MORNING UPDATE.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 150 AM CDT SUN MAR 26 2023
SHOWERS, ALONG WITH A FEW EMBEDDED TSTMS, WILL INCREASE OVER THE
AREA THIS EVENING, AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS MORE TO THE NORTH, BEFORE
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVES EASTWARD THRU THE REGION LATE TONIGHT
BRINGING AN END TO THE RAINFALL. HIGH PRESSURE OUT OF THE PLAINS
STATES WILL THEN GRADUALLY BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE MIDWEST/OH
VALLEY AREAS HEADING INTO THE NEW WORK WEEK. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
SLIGHTLY COOLER/MORE SEASONAL LIKE AIR/CONDITIONS FILTERING INTO
THE CENTRAL TN VALLEY FROM THE N/NE. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS A WEAK
UPPER DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED WITHIN A NEAR ZONAL FLOW PATTERN MOVING
THRU THE REGION EARLY TUE, WITH PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING
ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BECOMES REINFORCED
OVER MUCH OF THE REGION BY MID WEEK, TRANSLATING INTO QUIET/NEAR
SEASONAL LIKE WX CONDITIONS. HIGHS ON MON IN THE LOWER 70S WILL
FALL INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S TUE/WED. LOWS IN THE MID 50S TONIGHT
WILL ALSO FALL INTO THE 40S MON/TUE NIGHTS.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 150 AM CDT SUN MAR 26 2023
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL THEN DEVELOP AFTER MID WEEK, AS THE
SFC HIGH MOVES EAST OF THE AREA AND A RETURN FLOW PATTERN FORMS
OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. MOISTURE WILL ALSO SPREAD BACK INTO THE
AREA BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK, AS AN UPPER TROUGH PATTERN DIGS
INTO THE SW/SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES. THIS UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL
QUICKLY LIFT TO THE NE THIS WEEKEND. AN ATTENDANT SFC LOW OUT OF
THE PLAINS STATES WILL ALSO LIFT INTO THE OH VALLEY SAT, DRAGGING
ANOTHER COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER, A WEAK UPPER RIDGE
AXIS IN PLACE OVER THE GULF REGION MAY EITHER SLOW/DEFLECT THE
FRONT MORE TO THE N/NW SAT. IN ANY CASE, INCREASING SHOWERS, ALONG
WITH A FEW TSTMS, ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG/WELL AHEAD OF
THIS NEXT FRONT FRI/SAT, BEFORE RAINFALL TAPERS OFF TO THE EAST
SUN WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. WITH THE WARMING TREND, HIGHS
LOOK TO CLIMB BACK INTO THE LOWER/MID 70S THU/FRI, BEFORE HIGHS
TREND MORE IN THE UPPER 60S/NEAR 70F SAT/SUN. LOWS WILL ALSO CLIMB
WELL INTO THE UPPER 50S/NEAR 60F THU/FRI NIGHTS, BEFORE LOWERING
BACK INTO THE MID/UPPER 40S SAT NIGHT.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 621 AM CDT SUN MAR 26 2023
OTHER THAN SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS FILTERING INTO THE AREA FROM THE
SW, VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED INTO THE EVENING HRS. MVFR CIGS THEN
LOOK TO DEVELOP NEAR 03Z, AS SHRA/TSRA SPREAD INTO THE AREA FROM
THE SOUTH. A PROB30 GROUP HAS BEEN ADDED IN THE 04-09Z TIME RANGE
TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS DUE TO THE ONCOMING PRECIP.
PRECIP WILL THEN TAPER OFF TO THE EAST LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT, WITH MVFR CIGS LINGERING
THRU 12Z MON. LIGHT/VAR WINDS WILL ALSO TURN TO THE SW NEAR 7-8KT
THIS EVENING, BEFORE TURNING NW LATE WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...25
SHORT TERM....09
LONG TERM....09
AVIATION...09
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