142
FXUS64 KHUN 220555 CCA
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1150 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1005 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2025
- NO WEATHER IMPACTS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TONIGHT AND MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1005 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2025
SOME HIGH CLOUDS ARE AFFECTING MAINLY PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MIDDLE
TENNESSEE THIS EVENING. HOWEVER, THIS CLOUD COVER IS VERY THIN.
WINDS HAVE PRIMARILY REMAINED AROUND 4 OR 5 MPH, EXCEPT IN
SHELTERED VALLEY LOCATIONS, WHERE SOME CALM WINDS ARE IN PLACE.
DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO MODIFY SO FAR THIS EVENING WITH
NORTHEASTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS CONTINUING. WITH THE CLEAR
SKIES OR ONLY VERY THIN HIGH CLOUD COVER THIS EVENING, SOME
SHELTERED LOCATIONS (MAINLY EAST OF I-65 CORRIDOR), HAVE SEEN
TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S (FORT PAYNE -
AL/WINCHESTER - TN). WITH CLEAR SKIES/THIN CLOUD COVER CONTINUING
OVERNIGHT, SOME LOWS COULD DROP INTO THE LOWER 30S.
MOST GUIDANCE DOES HOLD ONTO A PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA
OVERNIGHT THOUGH. SO EXPECTING WINDS TO REMAIN AROUND 5 MPH ACROSS
A GOOD PORTION OF NORTHERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE
AND INCREASE AS 925 MB WINDS STRENGTHEN AROUND DAYBREAK ON MONDAY.
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHOULD ALSO SHIFT TO THE EAST AND SE TOWARDS
DAYBREAK. EXPECT DEWPOINTS AND TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB SOME IN
RESPONSE THEN.
OVERALL EXPECT LOWS TO BE MET OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AROUND
MIDNIGHT AND THEN TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS TO INCREASE SLOWLY.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S IN SOUTHERN
MIDDLE TN AND PORTIONS OF NE ALABAMA. ELSEWHERE, EXPECT WARMER
LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.
CLOUD COVER SHOULD PUSH NORTHWARD TOWARDS DAYBREAK INTO AREAS
SOUTH OF THE TN RIVER. AFTER DAYBREAK ON MONDAY, EXPECT THESE
CLOUDY CONDITIONS TO PUSH FURTHER NORTH AND ENCOMPASS MUCH OF
NORTHERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE. FRANKLIN COUNTY
MAY BE AN EXCEPTION TO THAT UNTIL THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS SHOULD
HELP TEMPER HIGHS A BIT, BUT KEPT THEM IN THE 55 TO 60 DEGREE
RANGE MAINLY.
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON, MODELS DO HINT AT VERY WEAK ISENTROPIC
LIFT DEVELOPING OVER MISSISSIPPI, ARKANSAS AND WESTERN KENTUCKY.
MAYBE DEEP ENOUGH MOISTURE COINCIDES WITH THAT LIFT NEAR THE
AL/MS BORDER FOR A FEW INSTANCES OF BRIEF LIGHT RAIN BY THE
EVENING HOURS.
SHORT TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1005 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2025
VERY LOW CHANCES (MAINLY 20 TO 25%) ARE IN THE FORECAST AND MAINLY
FOR EXTREME NW ALABAMA AND OUR SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN COUNTIES MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT, BEFORE ENDING. VERY LITTLE RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THAT PERIOD. BUT A FEW HUNDREDTHS HERE OR THERE
COULD OCCUR. HOWEVER, WE WILL LIKELY SEE VERY LITTLE SUNSHINE DUE TO
PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER. THE EXCEPTION MIGHT BE SOUTH OF THE
TENNESSEE RIVER ON TUESDAY. STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS
DURING THAT PERIOD. THIS WILL PUSH HIGHS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY INTO
THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1005 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2025
LOWS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SOME
EARLY CLOUD COVER LINGERING. EVEN WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON
CHRISTMAS DAY, AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS OVER THE GULF COAST
STATES INTO NORTHERN ALABAMA. HIGHS BY CHRISTMAS DAY WILL LIKELY
BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S, DESPITE SOME CLOUDS AT TIMES.
ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY. A FEW
MODELS DO SHOW SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN WITH IT, BUT NOT MUCH.
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND SOME WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL DROP
HIGHS A TAD INTO THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER
TEMPERATURES QUICKLY WARM BEHIND IT INTO THE 70 TO 75 DEGREE RANGE
ON ON SATURDAY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2025
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT KHSV, BUT MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AT KMSL BY ~1500Z, WITH RELATIVELY LOW CONFIDENCE IN
CEILING FORECAST. LATEST SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS SHOWS A DECK OF
LOW STRATUS TO OUR SOUTH STRETCHING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO
GA, WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NWRD. THE FOCUS FOR BETTER LIFT
AND MOISTURE ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE OVER THE LOWER
MISS VALLEY AND EXTENDING INTO NW AL, BUT THE EASTWARD EXTENT OF
THE LOW CLOUD DECK AND MVFR CEILINGS IS STILL UNCERTAIN.
NEVERTHELESS, FAVORED GUIDANCE SUGGESTS IMPACTS AT KMSL MORE
LIKELY THAN KHSV. STILL, KHSV WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED AND
AMENDMENTS MAY BE NECESSARY.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...KTW
SHORT TERM....KTW
LONG TERM....KTW
AVIATION...KDW
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page