439
FXUS64 KHUN 191120
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
620 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 813 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2026
- GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES TODAY, WITH STRONGEST GUSTS UP TO 25 TO
30 MPH MAINLY IN HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS.
- AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL DEVELOP NEXT WEEKEND BRINGING
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR RAIN AND STORMS.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2026
EARLY MORNING ANALYSIS SHOWS A HIGHLY MERIDIONAL LONGWAVE TROUGH
CENTERED OVER THE EAST CONUS. AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT HAS MOVED
ACROSS THE LOCAL HUN AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD, WITH COLDER
AIR FILTERING INTO THE REGION. TEMPS AS OF 3 AM HAVE FALLEN INTO
THE MID/UPR 40S AT MOST LOCATIONS, WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF
AREAS JUST DOWNSTREAM FROM THE WARMER LARGE TN RIVER LAKES.
GRADIENT WINDS HAVE BEEN GUSTY WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY AROUND 20-30
MPH BUT MAINLY IN THE VICINITY OF AND LARGELY JUST FOLLOWING THE
FRONT. MOSTLY LGT/MDT RAIN SHOWERS HAVE FALLEN BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH WARM/MOIST ADVECTION IN SWRLY FLOW ATOP THE ELEVATED FRONTAL
SURFACE. THE RAIN HAS TENDED TO TAPER OFF FROM W-E AS DEEPER CAA
CONTINUES, AND IT IS EXPECTED THAT THE REMNANTS OF THE RAINBAND
WILL PUSH OUT OF EASTERN AREAS BY DAYBREAK. MID/UPR CLOUDS WILL
INITIALLY BE PRESENT, BUT SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THIS BAND OF CLOUDS WILL PUSH EASTWARD AND ACROSS
THE AREA DURING THE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. BY LATE MORNING,
DEEPER MIXING OF SLIGHTLY STRONGER NRLY WINDS ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR
THE REGENERATION OF GUSTY WINDS TODAY. GUSTS MAY REACH 25-30 MPH,
ESPECIALLY IN HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS, BUT A WIND ADVISORY DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE WARRANTED. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE ABOUT 20F (OR
MORE) DEGREES COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS, WITH EXPECTED HIGH TEMPS
ONLY IN THE LOW/MID 60S.
SHORT TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 813 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2026
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS FROM ITS
CURRENT POSITION TO OUR WEST OVER TO THE MID ATLANTIC. THIS WILL
KEEP CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY.
AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS, WE WILL SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
TEMPS AND DEW POINTS FROM MONDAY TO TUESDAYS AS SURFACE FLOW
SHIFTS TO THE ESE. HIGHS WILL WARM FROM THE MID 70S ON MONDAY TO
THE LOW 80S ON TUESDAY. DEW POINTS WILL RISE FROM THE MID 30S TO
HIGH 40S BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE LOW DEW POINTS WILL KEEP MIN RH
NEAR 30%, HOWEVER HIGH PRESSURE WILL SUPPRESS WINDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD, DECREASING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 813 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2026
BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS EASTERN
GA AND SC WILL BE THE MAIN DRIVER OF THE LOCAL WEATHER PATTERN. AS A
RESULT, A DRY FORECAST IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS ALSO ANTICIPATED AS MID LEVEL RIDGING
SLOWLY AMPLIFIES BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 80S WEDNESDAY AND MID 80S ON THURSDAY WITH MORNING LOWS IN
THE MID 50S. ON FRIDAY, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE ROCKIES DIGS
SOUTHEAST INTO THE PLAINS. AS A SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EJECTS
EASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION, A COLD
FRONT TO ITS SOUTH WILL STRETCH INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. LATEST
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE FAR SOUTHERN EDGE OF THIS FRONT
WILL REACH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE DAY ON
FRIDAY BRING A LOW TO MEDIUM (40-60%) CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE COLD FRONT STALLS ACROSS THE LOCAL FORECAST
CONTINUING MEDIUM RAIN CHANCES THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS FAR OUT, SEVERE
STORMS CHANCES APPEAR QUITE LOW, BUT THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO KEEP
AN EYE ON AS WE HEAD THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 618 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT KHSV AND KMSL TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS. PATCHY FOG IS FORMING IN PARTS OF THE REGION THIS
MORNING, BUT LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SFC OBS SUGGEST THE
DEVELOPMENT AT EITHER TAF SITE IS NOT LIKELY. OTHERWISE, WINDS
WILL BECOME GUSTY LATER THIS MORNING, WITH WINDS ABATING ~00Z.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...KDW
SHORT TERM....RAD
LONG TERM....GH
AVIATION...KDW
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