837
FXUS64 KHUN 190502
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1102 PM CST WED FEB 18 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1033 PM CST WED FEB 18 2026
- UNSEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY,
WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S.
- LOW TO MEDIUM RAIN CHANCES FROM TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING,
WITH A HIGH CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT-
FRIDAY MORNING.
- A COLDER AIRMASS WILL RETURN TO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TONIGHT AND THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1033 PM CST WED FEB 18 2026
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM ENE ACROSS NORTHERN ALABAMA AND MUCH OF
TENNESSEE AT THIS HOUR. THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS
SOME STRONGER FORCING ALOFT SHIFTS ENE FROM CENTRAL TENNESSEE INTO
THE CAROLINAS. PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND NEAR THE
AL/TN BORDER COULD SEE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION SINK SOUTHEAST ON THE
EDGE OF THIS FORCING TOWARDS AND JUST AFTER DAYBREAK ON THURSDAY.
HOWEVER, AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY LIGHT, LIKELY LESS THAN 0.05 INCHES.
WE SHOULD REMAIN CLOUDY THOUGH THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH CIGS
DROPPING AROUND DAYBREAK BELOW 3000 FEET AT TIMES. CURRENTLY, THE
CLEARING LINE IS OVER EXTREME NW TENNESSEE AND CENTRAL ARKANSAS.
WE COULD SEE SOME BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER, BUT NOT SURE FOR VERY LONG
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. MOST GUIDANCE QUICKLY DEVELOPS THICKER CLOUD
COVER BY NOON WHICH CONTINUES INTO THE EVENING HOURS. DESPITE CLOUD
COVER, STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER WARM AIR ADVECTION IS HINTED AT BY 925
MB TEMPERATURES FORECAST BY MODELS (15-18 DEGREES), DUE TO A
STRENGTHENING 850 MB JET. WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO START OUT IN
THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S, HIGHS IN THE 71 TO 76 DEGREE RANGE LOOK
VERY ATTAINABLE. IF WE SEE ENOUGH BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER, HIGHS IN THE
MID 70S TO LOWER 80S MAY BE REACHED.
AS A STRONG UPPER LOW MOVES EAST THROUGH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT LATER IN
THE AFTERNOON, IT DRAGS A TRAILING COLD FRONT EASTWARD AHEAD OF IT.
THE LOW LEVEL JET CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF IT OVER THE AREA.
WINDS WILL MIX UP TO AROUND 850 MB DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS
WILL KEEP THINGS VERY BREEZY WITH WINDS INCREASING TO BETWEEN 15 AND
20 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE TOWARDS THE MID-
AFTERNOON HOURS.
STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF THIS FRONT AND THE LOW LEVEL JET
WILL WORK TOGETHER TO REDEVELOP THE AFORE-MENTIONED CLOUD COVER AND
SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE TRAILING COLD
FRONT FROM THE UPPER LOW LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
THOUGH SHEAR AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND UPPER LOW WILL BE VERY STRONG,
FORCING LOOKS TO WEAK TO SUSTAIN ORGANIZED STRONGER THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY AS FAR SOUTH AS NORTHERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE
TENNESSEE. SBCAPE AND MUCAPE ALSO LOOKS VERY MINIMAL, 100 J/KG OR
LESS (MAINLY IN SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN). HOWEVER, THE STRONGER FORCING
WILL LIKELY REMAIN WELL NORTHEAST OF THE AREA MUCH CLOSER TO THE
UPPER LOW ITSELF NEAR THE OHIO VALLEY AND EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION.
THIS KIND OF INTENSE SHEAR WITH SUCH WEAK FORCING AND INSTABILITY
WOULD LIKELY TEAR APART MOST STORMS THAT TRY TO FORM. NOT TO SAY WE
COULDN'T SEE A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER OR FLASHES OF LIGHTNING, BUT
MOST ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE SOME MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY SHOWERS.
SHORT TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1033 PM CST WED FEB 18 2026
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WOULD MOST LIKELY BE MAINLY IN THE EVENING AND
VERY SPOTTY. LESS THAN ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL IS MAINLY
EXPECTED. THE FRONT SHOULD QUICKLY MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY AROUND DAYBREAK ON FRIDAY, PUTTING AN END TO RAINFALL
CHANCES. NOT ALOT OF COLD AIR BEHIND THIS WEAK FRONT, WITH LOWS ONLY
DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S AROUND 6 AM ON FRIDAY.
MOST GUIDANCE GIVES WAY TO PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY.
WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER, AS THE EASTERN EDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. HIGHS SHOULD REBOUND INTO THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S WITH SOME WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION OCCURRING. FRIDAY
NIGHT SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY WARM, AS LOWS ONLY DROP INTO THE MID 40S
TO LOWER 50S WITH CLOUD COVER DEVELOPING AHEAD OF A CLIPPER SYSTEM
PUSHING SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE AREA. IT COULD PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS
AHEAD OF IT FRIDAY NIGHT AS IT APPROACHES THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. SHEAR
WILL AGAIN BE HIGH, BUT INSTABILITY LOOKS TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE
AREA.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1033 PM CST WED FEB 18 2026
AN UPPER LOW COMPLEX NOW OVER THE WESTERN NORTH AMERICAN DOMAIN, AS
WE GO THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL MOVE EASTWARD WHILE AMPLIFYING. THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN PRONOUNCED TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF
THE CONTINENT, WITH UPPER RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS NEXT WEEK.
WITH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BEING UNDER A NW FLOW ROUNDING THE WESTERN
PORTION OF TROUGHING ALONG THE EAST COAST, MUCH COLDER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM, A
SURFACE LOW THAT HAS FORMED OVER THE CENTRAL FRONT RANGE SHOULD
DEEPEN AS IT MOVES OVER THE GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE SHOULD FORM OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS,
AND MOVE TOWARDS THE EAST COAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, BECOMING A NOR-
EASTER TYPE SYSTEM.
POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH
THE ONES SATURDAY NIGHT MORE ASSOCIATED WITH A AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
TRAVERSING IN A WEST TO EAST MANNER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES. WHILE
THIS IS OCCURRING, COLDER AIR WRAPPING IN BEHIND THE LOWS AS THEY
HEAD FURTHER TO THE EAST WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA. AS SUCH, A
RAIN/SNOW MIX IS POSSIBLE OVER OUR NORTH AND EAST AREAS BEFORE
DAYBREAK SUNDAY. ANY CHANGEOVER SHOULD BE BRIEF BEFORE IT MOVES EAST
OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. AFTER FALLING TO AROUND FREEZING
TOWARDS DAYBREAK SUNDAY, HIGHS LATER THAT DAY WILL ONLY RISE MID TO
UPPER 40S. A NW WIND OF 10-20 MPH WILL MAKE IT FEEL 5-10 DEGREES
COLDER MOST PLACES DESPITE THE SUN RETURNING.
A DRY AND CHILLY PERIOD FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE NEW WEEK IS
EXPECTED, AS HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE ARCTIC REGIONS NORTH OF ALASKA
AND NW CANADA FILTERS SOUTHWARD. THUS CHILLY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH LOWS BOTH SUNDAY/MONDAY NIGHTS FALLING INTO THE
LOW/MID 20S. UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES, HIGHS MONDAY SHOULD STRUGGLE
ONLY INTO THE LOWER 40S. A BIT WARMER ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS RISING TO
AROUND 50. A MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES CONTINUES AS WE GO INTO THE
MID WEEK. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD RANGE IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER
30S, WITH HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60. CLOUDS
WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE FOR THE MIDWEEK AS A CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE NW.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1102 PM CST WED FEB 18 2026
VFR CEILINGS WILL TRANSITION TO MVFR (015-025AGL) NEARLY AREAWIDE
BY 11Z. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF CEILINGS LOWER THAN 010AGL
(IFR) FROM 13-16Z. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE CEILINGS REMAIN MVFR
THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE RISING BACK TO VFR BY 00Z.
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 12-14KT WITH GUSTS OF
22-24KT AT TIMES, SUBSIDING SOMEWHAT AFTER 00Z. THE PROBABILITY OF
SHRA REMAINS BELOW 30% SO HAVE OPTED NOT TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...KTW
SHORT TERM....KTW
LONG TERM....RSB
AVIATION...17
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page