999
FXUS64 KHUN 301845
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
145 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2025
..NEW NEAR TERM
NEAR TERM
(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 145 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2025
MORNING CLOUD COVER HAS DISSIPATED, WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE HELPING TO
WARM TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 80S AS OF 18Z. AS A RESULT, THE
ATMOSPHERE HAS ONCE AGAIN RAPIDLY DESTABILIZED, WITH SBCAPE
VALUES RANGING FROM NEAR 3000 J/KG IN THE EAST TO NEARLY 5000 J/KG
ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST ALABAMA. CONVECTION HAS BEGUN TO DEVELOP
ALONG A FEW RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE
THAT EXTEND INTO NORTHERN ALABAMA. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND FILL IN OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS, WITH MEDIUM/HIGH CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING FROM THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS. GIVEN THE HIGH INSTABILITY, SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD
QUICKLY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE -- WITH LOCALIZED GUSTY/DAMAGING
WINDS BEING THE MAIN CONCERNS. THESE CELLS WILL BE VERY
DISORGANIZED AND "PULSE" LIKE IN NATURE GIVEN THE VERY WEAK SHEAR.
WITH PWATS AROUND 2.0" ANY CONVECTION THAT FORMS WILL BE VERY
EFFICIENT IN PRODUCING RAINFALL AND GIVEN THE VERY SLOW STORM
MOTIONS LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE CONCERN IN AREAS WHERE
TRAINING OCCURS. CONVECTION WILL WANE WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING,
THOUGH A VERY LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE NEEDED OVERNIGHT GIVEN
THESE LINGERING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND THE VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE.
IN LOCATIONS WHERE CLEARING OCCURS, SOME PATCHY FOG MAY ALSO
DEVELOP EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1152 AM CDT MON JUN 30 2025
A MUGGY AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA AS WE GO INTO
TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST, WITH MODERATE
TO HIGH CHANCES OF MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE AREA. WITH MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN, HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE
INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION TUESDAY EVENING, WITH SHOWER ACTIVITY WINDING DOWN FROM
WEST TO EAST.
WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE A DRY DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
AREA FROM THE WEST. HIGH TEMPERATURE SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS DAYS IN THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90. LOWS WILL RANGE IN THE
MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1028 PM CDT SUN JUN 29 2025
LIGHT-MODERATE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE TN
VALLEY ON THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT, BUT SHOULD DIMINISH AND VEER TO
THE NORTH ON FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT AS A STRENGTHENING SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (TO OUR SOUTHWEST) BUILDS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE LOWER MS
VALLEY. WITH LOW-LEVEL FLOW EXPECTED TO BE DICTATED BY A SURFACE
HIGH TO OUR NORTHEAST, WE WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST WITH HIGHS
WARMING BACK INTO THE LOWER 90S BY FRIDAY. THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE
WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC BY
SATURDAY/SUNDAY, RESULTING IN A LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS OUR
REGION. HOWEVER, MOISTURE RETURN MAY BE IMPACTED TO SOME EXTENT BY
A DEVELOPING UPPER LOW AND SURFACE WAVE SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY
OF NORTH/CENTRAL FL, AND THIS SHOULD KEEP HEAT INDEX VALUES IN
CHECK AS AFTERNOON TEMPS RETURN TO THE L-M 90S. WITH A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN BOTH ATMOSPHERIC WATER CONTENT AND CAPE ANTICIPATED
THIS WEEKEND, A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY OCCUR BOTH
DAYS (ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHEAST AL).
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1249 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2025
PERSISTENT STRATUS CLOUDS PRODUCED MVFR CIGS AS WE GO INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD BECOME VFR IN THE NEXT HOUR
OR SO, AS DAYTIME HEATING AND MIXING SCATTERS AND/OR RAISES THE
CEILING HIGHER. THIS MIXING AND PRODUCTION OF TOWERING CUMULUS
WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITIES THIS AFTERNOON, CONTINUING INTO THE NIGHT. GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY ON WHEN A STORM COULD IMPACT A TERMINAL, HAVE NOT
ADDED GUSTY WINDS TO THE TEMPO AND PROB30 SEGMENT THIS ISSUANCE.
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT AND INTO TUE
MORNING. WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST, WILL KEEP AT
LEAST MVFR CIGS FOR TUE AM.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...AMP.24
SHORT TERM....RSB
LONG TERM....70
AVIATION...RSB
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