764
FXUS64 KHUN 021056
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
556 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 556 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2026
- LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES (20-60%) FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FORECAST EACH AFTERNOON TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY
- NWS HEAT RISK HIGHLIGHTS MODERATE (LEVEL 2 OF 4) HEAT IMPACTS
ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY LATE THIS WEEK (THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY).
NEAR TERM
(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 206 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2026
PRECIPITATION HAS FINALLY COME TO AN END AS OF 07Z AS THE COLD
FRONT IS CLEARING THE TENNESSEE VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING. IN ITS
WAKE, SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONAL DATA ARE INDICATING SOME PATCHY
FOG AND LOW STRATUS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP THANKS TO THE MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS AND THE CALM WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT.
THESE LOW CLOUDS MAY LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS, BEFORE
BEGINNING TO SCATTER OUT BY THE AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE, THERE WON'T BE MUCH CHANGE IN OUR AIR MASS AS DEWPOINTS
REMAIN IN THE LOWER 70S ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER, CLOUD COVER
SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES A GOOD 8-10 DEGREES LOWER THAN THE
PREVIOUS DAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S BEING COMMON. WHILE
THE SURFACE FRONT HAS PASSED THROUGH, THE MID/UPPER TROUGH WILL
FINALLY SWING INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY LATER THIS AFTERNOON,
SERVING AS A FOCUS FOR LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW
GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS (20-50%). THE HIGHER CHANCES WILL BE FOR
LOCATIONS ALONG/NORTH OF THE OF THE TENNESSEE RIVER.
SHORT TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 942 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2026
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, THE UPPER LOW WEAKENS AS IT SHIFTS MORE
SSE INTO NORTHERN ALABAMA. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR EVEN MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO OCCUR MONDAY
AFTERNOON (50-70%). AGAIN, DUE TO THE WEAKENING NATURE OF THIS
UPPER LOW, NOT REALLY SEEING AMPLE SHEAR OR INSTABILITY IN PLACE
FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER, SOME
TRAINING OF BANDS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL AND MAYBE ISOLATED FLASH
FLOODING COULD OCCUR GIVEN THE LOCATION OF THE SLOWLY MOVING UPPER
LOW. A BIT MORE MORNING SUNSHINE COULD ALLOW HIGHS TO CLIMB A TAD
HIGHER, BUT STILL GIVEN CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION, HIGHS
SHOULD ONLY TOP OUT INT THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 85 DEGREES.
AS WE MOVE INTO TUESDAY, THE UPPER LOW STARTS TO SHIFT TO THE EAST
AND THEN NW AS AN APPROACHING LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS DRAWS IT THAT
DIRECTION. THIS SHOULD KEEP MEDIUM TO HIGH (40-60%) CHANCES OF
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM IN THE FORECAST NEAR AND EAST OF THE
I-65 CORRIDOR ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AGAIN, SHEAR AND INSTABILITY
LOOK TOO MEAGER FOR ANY STRONG THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 942 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2026
TOWARDS THE MIDDLE/END OF THE WEEK THE UPPER LOW OPENS INTO AN
OPEN WAVE THAT MERGES WITH A LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS APPROACHING THE
OHIO VALLEY REGION. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO LOWER SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INTO THE LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCE CATEGORY.
GFS SHOWS A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHEAST HOWEVER,
THIS LOOKS A LOT LIKE CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK AT THIS TIME. SO
STAYING WITH LOWER POP THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY (20-40%). HOWEVER,
WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS PERIOD FOR HIGH PRECIPITATION CHANCE
POTENTIAL IF THAT MATERIALIZES. AN OVERALL INCREASE IN HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
HIGHS SHOULD REBOUND BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S IN MOST
LOCATIONS WITH MORE SUNSHINE IN THE MORNING EXPECTED.
MODELS DO SEEM A BIT MORE CONVERGENT ON A WEAK FRONT (LONGWAVE
TROUGH AXIS ALOFT) PUSHING EAST INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THIS
THE WEEKEND. THIS COULD CREATE LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AGAIN,
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY LOOKS TO WEAK FOR STRONGER THUNDERSTORM
CONCERNS. DANGEROUS HEAT INDEX VALUES OVER 100 DEGREES MAY BUILD
BACK INTO THE REGION BY FRIDAY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 556 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2026
LOW STRATUS CONTINUES TO OOZE INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY FROM THE
WEST EARLY THIS MORNING, PROMPTING MVFR CONDITIONS AT BOTH
TERMINALS DUE TO CEILINGS AROUND 2.5 KFT. THESE CEILINGS WILL
GRADUALLY LIFT TO LOW-END VFR LEVELS BY MIDDAY, BEFORE CLOUD COVER
SCATTERS OUT BY THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY
VEER TO THE WEST THROUGH THE DAY.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...AMP
SHORT TERM....KTW
LONG TERM....KTW
AVIATION...AMP.24
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