973
FXUS64 KHUN 162335
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
535 PM CST MON FEB 16 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 957 AM CST MON FEB 16 2026
- A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE
WEEK, AS HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK IN THE 60S AND 70S EACH
DAY THROUGH FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE THE
FREEZING MARK.
- MEDIUM CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND LOW CHANCES FOR A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO THE FORECAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY.
NEAR TERM
(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 206 PM CST MON FEB 16 2026
A BEAUTIFUL AFTERNOON ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY, WITH HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL OF OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER. THIS HAS PROMOTED
SUNNY CONDITIONS -- WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER 60S IN
MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS THE AREA. THE CLEAR SKY WILL CARRY OVER TO
THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. HOWEVER, AFTER
MIDNIGHT MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE HINTING AT THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW
STRATUS WHICH WILL CARRY OVER INTO THE MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY.
THESE CLOUDS WILL HELP TO LIMIT COOLING AND KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES
FROM FALLING BELOW THE MID TO UPPER 40S.
SHORT TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 957 AM CST MON FEB 16 2026
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MID WEEK, WITH SOME PASSING
CLOUD COVER CREATING MORE PARTLY TO EVEN MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. DESPITE THESE CLOUDS, SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN THIS WARM AIR MASS, WITH HIGHS REACHING THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S BOTH DAYS AS A RESULT. THE DENSE CLOUD
COVER DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES
EXTREMELY MILD AND IN THE 55 TO 60 DEGREE RANGE.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 913 PM CST SUN FEB 15 2026
A NEARLY ZONAL UPPER FLOW PATTERN SHOULD BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
GREATER CONUS FOR THE MID AND LATTER PORTIONS OF THE WEEK; ALBEIT
WEAK TROUGHING WEST AND WEAK RIDGING EAST. UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
INVOLVED WITHIN THE POLAR JET AS THEY MOVES THROUGH WEAK TROUGHING
OVER THE NE PACIFIC BASIN, ARE FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY AFTER THE MIDWEEK. IN ADDITION TO A FEED OF UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE, A DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING ADDITIONAL LOWER-LEVEL
GULF OF AMERICA MOISTURE TO THE REGION.
THE ABOVE WILL PRODUCE A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN FOR THE LATE WEEK.
AS SUCH, LOWER END CHANCES OF SHOWERS RETURNS TO THE FORECAST BEFORE
DAYBREAK THURSDAY. HEIGHTENED INSTABILITY AND MODEST SHEAR WILL ALSO
BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN MORE PREVALENT
SHOWERS LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY. AN OVERALL FLAT UPPER
PATTERN NOW DEPICTED COULD HELP TAME OVERALL STORM STRENGTH, IF
THAT TREND CONTINUES. LATER MODEL RUNS SHOULD GIVE A BETTER PICTURE
OF SYSTEM DETAILS AS WE DRAW NEARER TO THE LATE WEEK.
UNSEASONABLY MILD TO WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY, WITH
HIGHS RISING INTO THE MID/UPPER 70S AND THE MID 70S FRIDAY. LOWS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD RANGE IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND
60.THE EXTENDED MODELS AND BLENDS SHOW A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE
VALLEY ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM ALASKA/CANADA WILL
BRING COLDER CONDITIONS TO THE AREA FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THE MOMENT, HIGHS ON SATURDAY SHOULD RANGE IN THE
MID 60S, AND THE MID 50S SUNDAY. LOWS WILL DROP TO AROUND 40 SATURDAY
NIGHT AND INTO THE UPPER 20S TO NEAR 30 SUNDAY MORNING.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 535 PM CST MON FEB 16 2026
A LARGE FETCH OF HIGH ALTITUDE MOISTURE FROM THE EAST PACIFIC
SUBTROPICS HAS CREATED BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS OVER MUCH OF THE
LOWER-48, INCLUDING THE TN VALLEY. THERE WAS AN AREA OF LOWER
LEVEL STRATUS BETWEEN THE GULF COAST AND TN VALLEY. MOST SHORT
TERM OUTPUT INDICATED THAT THIS LOWER ALTITUDE MOISTURE WILL MOVE
OVER THE AREA IN THE LATE NIGHT, PRODUCING MVFR CIGS TO START THE
DAY TUE. THE LOWER CLOUDS SHOULD BREAK UP DURING THE COURSE OF THE
LATE MORNING AND RETURN VFR CONDITIONS ON TUE AFTERNOON
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...AMP
SHORT TERM....AMP
LONG TERM....RSB
AVIATION...RSB
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