415
FXUS64 KHUN 051040
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
440 AM CST THU MAR 5 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 337 AM CST WED MAR 4 2026
- LOW (20-30%) CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN
FRIDAY AFTERNOON, INCREASING TO MEDIUM/HIGH (50-80%) FROM
SATURDAY-MONDAY.
- A LOW CHANCE OF SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IS FORECAST ON
SATURDAY, BRINGING A THREAT OF GUSTY TO DAMAGING WINDS.
- TEMPERATURES REMAIN WARM THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH NEAR
RECORD HIGHS ON THURSDAY, FRIDAY, SATURDAY, AND NEXT TUESDAY.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CST THU MAR 5 2026
THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION REMAINS ON TRACK AS VERY LOW CHANCES OF
SHOWERS (10% OR LESS) REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR NW AL THIS
AFTERNOON DUE TO STALLED FRONT SHIFTING NORTHWEST OF THE AREA.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S. WHETHER OR NOT WE WILL BREAK THE HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORD IN
HUNTSVILLE DEPENDS ON HOW FAR EAST THE CLOUD COVER WILL RESIDE
OVER THE TN VALLEY. IF CLOUDS REMAIN SCATTERED, THERE IS A GREATER
CHANCE OF THE RECORD BEING BROKEN. THIS WILL BE SOMETHING
MONITORED IN THE LATE MORNING UPDATE. OVERALL, A MOSTLY DRY AND
BREEZY DAY IS IN STORE FOR THE AREA.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
ALMOST BROKE A RECORD TODAY AT MSL WITH HOW
WARM THE TEMPS WERE. WE HIT 81 DEGREES AND THE RECORD IS 83
(2022). WITH SUCH WARM TEMPS TODAY AND THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER
TONIGHT THAT WE'LL SEE FROM AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH, LOWS
WILL BE REALLY MILD. THE LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S, THAT IS 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. IN
FACT, LOOKING AT THE RECORDS, WE COULD BREAK OR TIE A RECORD FOR
THE HIGHEST MIN TEMPERATURE AT HSV, BUT MSL MAY FALL SHORT.
TOMORROW WILL BE ANOTHER NICE AND ABNORMALLY WARM DAY ACROSS THE
TN VALLEY. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
WILL STILL BE HANGING ON TO PORTIONS OF THE REGION. A SHORTWAVE
WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE MIDWEST AND DAMPEN THE HIGH, AND A SFC LOW
WILL FOLLOW SUITE AND DRAG A COLD FRONT INTO THE MID MS VALLEY.
THIS PATTERN WILL GIVE WAY TO SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TO
INCREASING IN THE MORNING, GUSTING 15-20 MPH THROUGHOUT THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THE PROFICIENT WAA WILL PUSH DAYTIME HIGHS INTO
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S, AND ANOTHER RECORD COULD BE TIED OR
BROKEN IN HUNTSVILLE. A LIGHT SHOWER MAY BRUSH FAR NW AL,
OTHERWISE WE WILL BE DRY ONCE AGAIN.
RECORD HIGH MINIMUMS AND DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES
THURSDAY
HUNTSVILLE 64/1961 81/1910
MUSCLE SHOALS 65/1961 86/1908
SHORT TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 945 PM CST WED MAR 4 2026
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE ONCE AGAIN BE ABNORMALLY WARM WITH LOWS IN
THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S AND COULD TIE OR BREAK HIGHEST LOW
RECORDS. THE SHORTWAVE AND SFC WILL MOVE ON TO THE NORTHEAST ON
FRIDAY BUT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH RICH GULF AIR STREAMING IN TO
PROVIDE A LOW CHANCE (30-40%) OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE AFTERNOON AS A DISTURBANCE SLIDES BY. BETTER CHANCES OF
RAIN WILL COME THIS WEEKEND.
THIS WEEKEND, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEEPLY DIG OUT WEST ON
FRIDAY, THEN BREAK INTO A SOUTHERN STREAM CUT OFF LOW NEAR BAJA
CALIFORNIA WHILE A SHORT WAVE RIDES INTO THE MIDWEST ON
SATURDAY, FURTHER DAMPENING THE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST. THE SFC LOW WILL LIFT THROUGH THE MIDWEST ON SATURDAY
AND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE TN
VALLEY BRINGING INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. HIGH CHANCES (50-80%) ARE EXPECTED BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW RAINFALL COULD BE MODERATE TO
HEAVY WITH PWATS JUST SHY OF THE 99TH PERCENTILE AND WEAK SHEAR IN
PLACE. GIVEN THE DECENT SFC BASED INSTABILITY, COULD SEE A
STRONGER STORM OR TWO IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
RECORD HIGH MINIMUMS AND DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY
HUNTSVILLE 60/1951 82/1910
MUSCLE SHOALS 64/1956 82/1910
SATURDAY
HUNTSVILLE 67/1956 82/1956
MUSCLE SHOALS 64/1951 83/1934
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 945 PM CST WED MAR 4 2026
THE LAST FEW DAYS OF A SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINGING DEEPER MOISTURE ACROSS
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY FROM THE GULF REGION, WILL BE LIFTED AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEARS FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL BRING HIGHER CHANCES
OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TO START OFF A NEW WEEK.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS, AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD ALREADY
BE IN PROGRESS AS WE GO INTO SATURDAY EVENING. PRECIPITABLE WATER
AMOUNTS FORECASTED SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING RANGED UPWARDS
TO 1.5" OVER PARTS OF THE AREA. THUS LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, WITH A
NON-ZERO RISK FOR FLOODING AND/OR FLASH FLOODING IN SPOTS WHERE THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL OCCURS. AREAS WEST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR APPEAR WERE
THE HEAVIER RAINFALL MAY FALL. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST SUNDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES
SAT NIGHT SHOULD RANGE IN THE UPPER 50S. WITH CLOUDS AND DECENT
SHOWER CHANCES, IT'LL BE A BIT COOLER SUN, WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW/MID 70S. THESE READINGS ARE STILL AROUND 10 DEGREES WARMER
THAN SEASONABLE NORMS. WE GO BACK TO DAYLIGHT SAVINGS TIME DURING
SATURDAY NIGHT; PLEASE DO NOT FORGET TO SET YOUR CLOCKS ONE HOUR
FORWARD BEFORE RETIRING FOR THE DAY.
THE ABOVE NOTED COLD FRONT WILL BECOME MORE DIFFUSE AND WEAKER SUN
NIGHT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD BECOME MORE
SCATTERED IN COVERAGE AS THIS BOUNDARY WEAKENS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. SIMILAR HIGH LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED, WITH LOWS SUN
NIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S, AND HIGHS ON MON IN THE MID/UPPER 70S.
FOR ONCE, THE WARMER AIR SHOULD "WIN" AS WE GO INTO ANOTHER WORK
WEEK. THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OFF OF THE EAST COAST WILL NOT BE
MOVING MUCH, THUS A SOUTHERLY FLOW FROM THE GULF OF AMERICA WILL KEEP
A FEED OF MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST. WITH LOWER RAIN CHANCES AND A
BIT MORE SUN, AIR TEMPERATURES SHOULD APPROPRIATELY RESPOND. HIGHS ON
TUESDAY ONE AGAIN SHOULD RISE INTO THE LOWER 80S. STANDING RECORD
HIGHS OF 79/2009 AND 82/1925 AT HUNTSVILLE AND MUSCLE SHOALS MAY BE
ECLIPSED. VERY MILD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MON/TUE NIGHT, ONLY
FALLING INTO LOWER 60S. RECORD WARM MINIMUM TEMPERATURE RECORDS IN
THIS TIME FRAME COULD ALSO BE EXCEEDED.
YET ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE FORECAST
AREA FROM THE WEST LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. IT WILL BRING
MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER AMOUNTS GREATER THAN 1.5" COULD RESULT IN LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL, WITH MINOR FLOODING NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 441 AM CST THU MAR 5 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT BOTH KMSL
AND KHSV. DURING THE AFTERNOON, BREEZY SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY
WIND GUSTS UP TO 19 KTS ARE FORECAST.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...HC
SHORT TERM....JMS
LONG TERM....RSB
AVIATION...HC
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