079
FXUS64 KHUN 181152
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
652 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 921 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2026
- THERE IS A HIGH (80-90%) CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY
WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.
- A COOL/DRY AIRMASS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A DRY CONDITIONS AND A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND MONDAY-THURSDAY.
- CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ON
FRIDAY.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2026
EARLY MORNING ANALYSIS SHOWS A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
UPSTREAM FROM OUR AREA IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT MAKING ITS WAY
EASTWARD ACROSS THE MID-MISS VALLEY. WHILE SHOWERS/STORMS WERE
PRESENT JUST ALONG THE FRONT, AN AREA OF RAIN WITH A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS WERE BEHIND THE SFC FRONT. OVERALL, THE RECENT
SUITE OF NUMERICAL GUIDANCE HAS SHOWN A GOOD HANDLE ON CONVECTIVE
CHARACTERISTICS, AND THE TIMING WITH THE FRONT AND LINE OF
CONVECTION. THE LATEST DATA SUGGESTS THE LINE MAY EXPERIENCE SOME
CONTINUED WEAKENING DURING THE EARLY MORNING, BUT REINVIGORATION
IS ANTICIPATED WITH AMPLE HEATING LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE AREA
OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO MOVE INTO NW ALABAMA AROUND
NOON, AND REACH EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE, WITH
WEAKENING LAPSE RATES FOLLOWING AN ERODING MID-LEVEL CAP, AND
GENERALLY LONG/SKINNY CAPE PROFILES. SFC TEMPS PERHAPS REACHING
THE LOW/MID 80S AND TDS IN THE LOW 60S WILL YIELD SFC/MU CAPES
GENERALLY ~600 J/KG OR LOWER. DEEP LAYER SHEAR MAY REACH ~50-55
KTS POST-EROSION OF THE MID-LVL CAP, BUT WILL BE BRIEF JUST
ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT. GIVEN THE SETUP, A FEW STRONG STORMS
COULD RESULT PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS, BUT THE THREAT FOR ANY
SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS NEGLIGIBLE AT THIS TIME.
SHORT TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 921 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2026
A RATHER STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE SOUTHEASTWARD
THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA TOMORROW EVENING, WITH THE RISK FOR
THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY TO END ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES BY 2Z.
HOWEVER, WITH BROAD SCALE ASCENT EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN WITH THE
APPROACH OF A MID-LEVEL TROUGH, CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE
FOR LIGHT POSTFRONTAL RAIN (THAT SHOULD GRADUALLY END FROM NW-TO-
SE BEGINNING LATE SATURDAY EVENING). STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
APPEAR AS IF THEY WILL RANGE FROM 0.75-1"(NW) TO 0.25-0.5" (SE),
ALTHOUGH IT IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE THAT SOME LOCATIONS WILL RECEIVE
MORE (WHILE A FEW LOCATIONS MAY UNFORTUNATELY RECEIVE LESS).
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL QUICKLY
ADVECT A COOLER/DRIER, CONTINENTAL AIRMASS INTO THE REGION BY
SUNRISE ON SUNDAY, WITH LOWS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE M-U 40S.
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL EXIST ACROSS THE REGION FROM SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT, BUT SHOULD WEAKEN BY THE END OF THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD AS A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE TRAVELS EASTWARD FROM THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. MODERATELY STRONG CAA
WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON SUNDAY, YIELDING HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE LOWER 60S ATOP THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU TO THE M-U 60S IN
THE VALLEY. AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD INTO THE MID-
SOUTH REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WINDS WILL DIMINISH, AND THIS
ALONG WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL SUPPORT COOL OVERNIGHT LOWS
MONDAY MORNING (L-M 40S). WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT/VARIABLE ON
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR
NORTHEAST, AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS ANTICIPATED AS HIGHS
REBOUND INTO THE L-M 70S MONDAY.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 921 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2026
EXTENDED RANGE SOLUTIONS FROM THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT A
GENERAL ABSENCE OF SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL EXIST
FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD, AS A LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH PROGRESSING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE
EASTERN GULF (TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT) WILL BE FOLLOWED BY MID-
LEVEL HEIGHT RISES. THIS, ALONG WITH LINGERING INFLUENCES FROM A
WEAKENING DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE (CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN
ATLANTIC COAST), WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR THE
MAJORITY OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT
SHOWERS AND A PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY RETURN TO WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF A
SURFACE LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND COLD FRONT DROPPING
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE MID-MS VALLEY. HOWEVER, THERE IS A LARGE
AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THIS SCENARIO, AND EVEN IF A FEW
STORMS MANAGE TO DEVELOP, BOTH SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WOULD FAVOR
WEAK/UNORGANIZED CONVECTION AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE, WITH HIGHS RETURNING TO THE L-M 80S
(WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY), AND OVERNIGHT LOWS RISING INTO THE M-U 50S.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2026
VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY AT KHSV AND KMSL TERMINALS, BUT EXPECTING
IMPACTS AS SHRA IN ASSOC WITH A COLD FRONT WILL DEVELOP IN THE
AREA. TIMING REMAINS CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FORECASTS WITH IMPACTS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN AT KMSL BY 21Z AND AT KHSV BY 23Z. MVFR
CEILING/VIS ANTICIPATED WITH MDT/HVY SHRA THAT WILL AFFECT SITES.
CONFIDENCE A LITTLE HIGHER FOR TSRA AT KMSL, WHICH WAS INCLUDED IN
PROB30 GROUP. WINDS WILL VEER FROM WSW TO N DURING FRONTAL PASSAGE
WITH GUSTS ~20KTS, BUT HIGHER GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY HVY
SHRA/TSRA. RETURN TO VFR CURRENTLY EXPECTED AT KMSL BY 04Z AND
HSV BY 07Z.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...KDW
SHORT TERM....70
LONG TERM....70
AVIATION...KDW
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