720
FXUS64 KHUN 230839
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
239 AM CST MON FEB 23 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1019 PM CST SUN FEB 22 2026
- BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON,
WITH GUSTS IN THE 20-25 MPH RANGE.
- VERY COLD FROM TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE UPPER TEENS-LOWER 20S, AND WIND CHILLS OF 5-15F EARLY
MONDAY MORNING.
- A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN TUESDAY, WITH LOW CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS RETURNING LATE WEDNESDAY (BEFORE INCREASING INTO THE
HIGH CHANCE RANGE THURSDAY).
NEAR TERM
(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 238 AM CST MON FEB 23 2026
CURRENT 2 AM SATELLITE SHOWS AN AREA OF LOW CLOUDS GRADUALLY
MOVING ESE THROUGH NE AL. THESE CLOUDS ARE SUPPORTED BY THE
PASSAGE OF A SHORTWAVE ALONG THE BASE OF A DEEPENING MID LEVEL LOW
CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC. THE PRESENCE OF THE
LOW CLOUDS HOWEVER WILL DO LITTLE TO MITIGATE OUR COLD
TEMPERATURES. ALONG THE BASE OF THE DEEPENING MID LEVEL LOW,
STRONG NW FLOW CONTINUES BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. THIS IS
ALLOWING COOL AND DRY CONTINENTAL AIR TO FILTER IN FROM INTERIOR
CANADA. CURRENT TEMPERATURES SIT IN THE HIGH 20S WITH ADDITIONAL
COOLING TO THE HIGH TEENS TO LOW 20S FORECAST BY SUNRISE. WITH
WINDS REMAINING ELEVATED, WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW
TEENS WILL BE PRESENT THIS MORNING. FOR THOSE HEADING OUT TO WORK
AND SCHOOL IT WILL BE IMPORTANT TO DRESS ACCORDINGLY.
SKIES LOOK TO CLEAR ACROSS THE AREA BY MID MORNING YET THE SUN
WILL DO LITTLE TO AID OUR TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL BE RESTRAINED
TO THE 30S. WITH STRONG NW WINDS CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY,
APPARENT TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT ABOVE FREEZING.
HREF PROBABILITY REFLECT THIS SHOWING LESS THAN A 10% CHANCE OF
APPARENT TEMPS AREA WIDE RISING ABOVE 32 DEGREES. AS SUCH, MAKE
SURE TO BE PREPARED FOR THE COLD TO STAY THROUGH THE DAY AND PLAN
ACCORDINGLY FOR ANY OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.
SHORT TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1019 PM CST SUN FEB 22 2026
NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE TN VALLEY ON
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY (IN THE WAKE OF A DEEP COLD CORE VORTEX
TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE FAR NORTH ATLANTIC). IN THE LOW-
LEVELS, A SURFACE RIDGE (INITIALLY ACROSS EASTERN AR) WILL DEVELOP
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST ON MONDAY NIGHT, WITH
CALM WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES (ASIDE FROM A FEW HIGH CLOUDS)
PROMOTING A RADIATIONAL FREEZE AND LOWS ONCE AGAIN IN THE UPPER
TEENS-LOWER 20S (BUT WITH LITTLE TO NO WIND). AS THE WEAKENING
ANTICYCLONE SHIFTS FURTHER SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN GULF ON
TUESDAY, LOW-LEVEL SSW FLOW WILL QUICKLY REDEVELOP AND STRENGTHEN
AS A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW TRACK
ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY. THIS WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF A
WARMING TREND, WITH AFTERNOON TEMPS RETURNING TO THE U40S-L50S
EVEN WITH A NOTABLE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ALOFT.
AS THE INTENSIFYING SURFACE LOW (ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY)
BEGINS TO TURN EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY
NIGHT, A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE
OH VALLEY, FORCING BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW TO VEER TO THE SW ACROSS
OUR REGION. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A NOTABLE INCREASE IN LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE AND RETURN OF LOW STRATUS CLOUDS WEDNESDAY MORNING.
OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY, THE FRONT WILL STALL ALONG THE TN-KY
BORDER, IN RESPONSE TO A 500-MB TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND SUBSEQUENT SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS. CONTINUED MOISTENING OF THE LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS ACROSS
THE GULF COAST STATES MAY SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT SHOWERS,
PARTICULARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WHICH IS WHEN 850-MB WINDS WILL BACK
TO SW AND BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN IN ADVANCE OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH
TO OUR WEST. HOWEVER, THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS SOME THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME WILL LIKELY
REMAIN IN THE VICINITY OF THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR
NORTH. HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY RECOVER INTO THE U50S-L60S
ON WEDNESDAY, AS LOWS RISE BACK INTO THE U40S-L50S WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1019 PM CST SUN FEB 22 2026
EXTENDED RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT AN ELONGATED AND
RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE MID-LEVEL TROUGH (ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AT
THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD) MAY UNDERGO GRADUAL AMPLIFICATION AS
IT SHIFTS FURTHER EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER, IN WHICH PORTION OF THE TROUGH THIS OCCURS IS HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT A CONSOLIDATED
SURFACE LOW WILL GRADUALLY EVOLVE TO OUR NORTH DURING THE DAY ON
THURSDAY, WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE LATE MORNING AS DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE
55-60F RANGE. AT SOME POINT THURSDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING, A COLD
FRONT TRAILING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE LOW WILL CROSS THE FORECAST
AREA, FORCING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MORE FOCUSED AXIS OF MODERATE-
LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS. IN THE PRESENCE OF A VERY LOW CAPE BUT
STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT (HIGHLIGHTED BY A SW LOW-LEVEL JET OF
45-55 KNOTS), THIS MAY YIELD AN EVENT SIMILAR TO WHAT WE
EXPERIENCED LAST THURSDAY NIGHT FEATURING A BAND OF SHOWERS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WINDS. AND, AS NOTED IN THE LATEST
EXTENDED RANGE CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK FROM SPC, LOW PROBABILITIES FOR
SEVERE WINDS MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED FOR THIS EVENT, EVEN IN THE
ABSENCE OF LIGHTNING.
IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT, A SLIGHTLY COOLER/DRIER AIRMASS
WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE
MID-ALANTIC STATES. HIGHS WILL INITIALLY REMAIN IN THE L-M 60S BUT
SHOULD RETURN TO THE U60S-L70S BY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CST SUN FEB 22 2026
VFR/SKC CONDITIONS WILL LARGELY PREVAIL AT THE HSV/MSL TERMINALS
OVERNIGHT, WITH A NNW WIND OF 12G20 KTS. HOWEVER, DUE TO THE
PROXIMITY OF THE WESTERN EDGE OF A STRATUS LAYER, PERIODS OF SCT-
BKN CLOUDS ARND 5 KFT MAY OCCUR AT HSV THRU 9Z. OTHERWISE, A FEW
COLD AIR STRATOCU SHOULD REDEVELOP BY 15Z MONDAY, FOLLOWED BY
DISSIPATION LATE IN THE AFTN. THIN, HIGH-LVL CLOUDS MAY BEGIN TO
SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION TOMORROW EVENING, AND THIS WILL OCCUR AS
SFC WINDS BACK SLIGHTLY AND DIMINISH INTO THE 5-10 KT RANGE.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...RAD
SHORT TERM....70
LONG TERM....70
AVIATION...70
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