931
FXUS64 KHUN 020913
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
313 AM CST MON MAR 2 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 952 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2026
- LOW RAIN CHANCES (20-30%) LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING
MAINLY NORTH OF THE TN RIVER.
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN ON THURSDAY WITH CHANCES
INCREASING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS AND LOWS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CST MON MAR 2 2026
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
TEMPERATURES. CURRENT TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 40S THROUGHOUT THE
TN VALLEY AND ARE FORECAST TO RISE INTO THE 70S THIS AFTERNOON
UNDER CONTINUED CLOUD COVER. MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN DENSE BEFORE BREAKING UP/SCATTERING IN THE EVENING HOURS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
WE WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
DISTURBANCE COMING OUT OF THE MO BOOTHEEL TONIGHT. THIS CLOUD
COVER WILL HELP KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS MILD, IN THE LOWER 50S. A
WEAK FRONT IS DRAPED ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA, BUT THE
BEST FORCING WITH THE DISTURBANCE SHOULD REMAIN WELL TO OUR
NORTH. THIS WILL BRING LOW CHANCES (20-30%) NORTH OF THE TN RIVER
LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING WHERE THAT FRONT IS HUNG UP.
TOMORROW, LOOK FOR CLOUDY SKIES TO STICK AROUND. DESPITE THE CLOUD
COVER, SOUTHERLY WINDS 5-10 MPH GUSTING TO 15 MPH WILL HELP PUSH
DAYTIME HIGHS INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S. THIS IS ABOUT 15 DEGREES
WARMER THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
SHORT TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 952 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2026
MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SE WINDS REMAINING 5-10
MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 15 MPH OR SO. LOWS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL ONCE
AGAIN IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A
WEDGE BUILDING TO THE AL/GA BORDER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, SO
COULD SEE TEMPS A LITTLE COOLER IN NE AL TOMORROW NIGHT AND
PROVIDE A TEMP GRADIENT DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. HIGHS ON
TUESDAY WILL BE EVEN WARMER WITH BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING UP
TO 20 MPH. LOOK FOR LOWER 70S IN NE AL AND UPPER 70S IN NORTHWEST
AL, AGAIN ABOUT 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. IF YOU LOVE THAT, JUST
WAIT TIL WEDNESDAY. WE COULD REACH, WAIT FOR IT, 80 DEGREES
DESPITE BEING UNDER CLOUDY SKIES. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN
BREEZY THROUGHOUT THE DAY AHEAD OF A SFC LOW IN THE MID MS VALLEY
AND A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 952 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2026
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ANCHOR OVER THE SW ATLANTIC THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD, KEEPING WARM AND MOIST TROPICAL AIR FLOWING INTO THE
SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL FAVOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES, WITH HIGHS IN
THE 70S TO LOW 80S EACH AFTERNOON AND HIGHER HUMIDITY WILL HELP KEEP
LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S - WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY MARCH.
WHILE THIS AIRMASS WILL FAVOR AT LEAST LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS, THERE IS STILL A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW FAR
EAST A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL TRACK. WITH THAT IN
MIND, WE HAVE MAINTAINED LOW CHANCE POPS STARTING THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES WEST OF I-65. IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE
UPPER HIGH WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE EAST OVER THE WEEKEND, ALLOWING
TROUGHING AND A SFC COLD FRONT TO PUSH CLOSER TO THE TN VALLEY
RESULTING IN MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. FOR NOW, IT LOOKS LIKE THE BETTER DYNAMICS FOR
ANY STRONGER STORMS WILL BE HELD TO OUR WEST, BUT WE WILL CONTINUE
MONITORING FORECAST TRENDS THROUGH THE WEEK AS THE PATTERN DOES FAVOR
MORE ACTIVE WEATHER.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1111 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2026
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER HAS INCLUDED NORTHWESTERN AND
NORTH-CENTRAL ALABAMA, AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE IN A MODERATE
RISK FOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION FOR MARCH 8TH THROUGH 10TH. THERE IS
A 40-60% CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TO REACH OR EXCEED 2 TO 2.5
INCHES DURING THIS PERIOD.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER HAS ALSO INCLUDED FAR NORTHWESTERN
ALABAMA, WHICH INCLUDES WESTERN PORTIONS OF LAUDERDALE AND
COLBERT COUNTIES IN A HIGH RISK FOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION FOR MARCH
8TH THROUGH 9TH. THERE IS A 60-80% CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TO
REACH OR EXCEED 2.5 INCHES DURING THIS PERIOD.
MORE INFORMATION ON THE CPC U.S. HAZARDS OUTLOOK CAN BE FOUND AT:
HTTPS://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/PREDICTIONS/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...HC
SHORT TERM....JMS
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...HC
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