323
FXUS64 KHUN 100445
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1145 PM CDT SAT MAY 9 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 944 PM CDT SAT MAY 9 2026
- LOW-MEDIUM CHANCES FOR PATCHY, DENSE FOG TONIGHT
- A LOW CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH A LOW CHANCE OF A FEW STRONG STORMS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL (HIGHEST CONFIDENCE ACROSS
NW AL)
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 944 PM CDT SAT MAY 9 2026
A MOSTLY DRY NIGHT IS IN STORE FOR THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AS SFC
HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. HOWEVER, A FEW
CAMS HINT AT A POP UP SHOWER OVERNIGHT SO HAVE LEFT A VERY LOW
CHANCE (10% OR LESS) IN THE FORECAST PACKAGE. CALM WINDS AND
PERIODS OF CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO LOW-MEDIUM CHANCES OF
PATCHY, DENSE FOG OVERNIGHT (WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE NORTH OF THE
TN RIVER). VISIBILITIES IN SOME AREAS MAY BE REDUCED TO 1/4 MILE
OR LESS. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THESE AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL BE
SPATIALLY LIMITED AND THEREFORE HOLDING OFF ON A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. IF OBSERVATIONAL DATA SUPPORTS MORE
WIDESPREAD, DENSE FOG THEN ONE MAY BE CONSIDERED IN THE OVERNIGHT
UPDATE. LOW CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY PUSH NORTHWARD AND LINGER THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS. ANY FOG THAT DOES FORM SHOULD DISSIPATE BY THE
LATE MORNING.
THE PRIMARY TALKING POINT FOR SUNDAY WILL BE A LOW CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WITH A LOW CHANCE OF SOME BECOMING STRONG DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS (WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN
STRONG STORMS REMAINING IN NW AL). AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
SUBSEQUENT COLD FRONT ARE FORECAST TO SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE
LOWER MS AND TN VALLEYS ON SUNDAY. WHILE WE WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY
THOUGH MOST OF THE DAY, LOW-MEDIUM CHANCES (45% OR LESS) OF
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO PUSH IN BY THE EVENING HOURS.
INSTABILITY LOOKS MEAGER WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ~500 J/KG IN NW AL
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. COINCIDING WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES, GUSTY WINDS WILL BE A HAZARD WITH A THUNDERSTORM IN THE
AREA SHOULD ONE BE REALIZED. WEAK SHEAR WILL PREVENT A HIGHER
SEVERE THREAT THROUGHOUT THE AREA. THOSE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS FOR
THE EVENING ARE URGED TO CHECK BACK IN FOR FORECAST UPDATES AS WE
PROGRESS INTO TOMORROW!
SHORT TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 944 PM CDT SAT MAY 9 2026
POST-FRONTAL SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL REIGN OVER THE AREA EARLY NEXT
WEEK, ALLOWING DRY CONDITIONS BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HIGHS ARE
FORECAST TO BE RELATIVELY COOLER, PEAKING IN THE MID 70S THROUGH
MOST OF THE AREA BOTH AFTERNOONS. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE FORECAST TO
DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 944 PM CDT SAT MAY 9 2026
TUESDAY NIGHT CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL HELP LOWS DIP INTO THE
LOWER 50S. ON WEDNESDAY, HIGH PRESSURE WILL GET SHOVED EASTWARD AS A
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SFC LOW UP THERE WILL TRAIL THROUGH THE OH VALLEY, INTO THE MID
MS VALLEY AND BACK INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING OR NIGHT AND IT IS TRENDING TO ONLY PROVIDE
A FEW SHOWERS. AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD BE ABLE TO REACH AROUND 80
DEGREES. WE WILL BE POSTFRONTAL ON THURSDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON DOWN TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. THIS
WILL PROVIDE HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S UNDER A SUNNY SKY AND LOWS
AROUND 50 DEGREES. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL GLIDE THROUGH THE
SOUTHEAST ON FRIDAY, BUT BE DAMPENED BY A SHORTWAVE RUNNING INTO IT
ON SATURDAY. IT WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY DURING THIS TIME, BUT RAISE
TEMPERATURES. LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S ON FRIDAY AND THE MID
TO UPPER 80S ON SATURDAY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT SAT MAY 9 2026
LOW CLOUDS AND REDUCED VISIBILITY WILL ARRIVE FROM THE SOUTH
SHORTLY AFTER 6Z WITH CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES DROPPING TO MVFR
TO PERIODS OF IFR THROUGH SUNRISE. TAFS WILL BE AMENDED IF
CONDITIONS FALL BELOW WHAT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST IN THE TAF.
CONDITIONS LOOK TO RISE BACK TO VFR BY MID MORNING AND REMAIN SO
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...HC
SHORT TERM....HC
LONG TERM....JMS
AVIATION...RAD
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page