411
FXUS64 KHUN 072348
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
548 PM CST SUN DEC 7 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 950 AM CST SUN DEC 7 2025
- LOW TO MEDIUM (30-50%) CHANCES FOR RAIN TONIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY MORNING.
- SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES RETURN MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND THROUGH MIDWEEK.
- CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN THE POTENTIAL OF VERY COLD
CONDITIONS BY NEXT WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM
(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 209 PM CST SUN DEC 7 2025
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH AND EAST
INTO MO/OK. COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY SHOWS LIGHT RAIN ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FEATURE. AS WE HEAD INTO THE EVENING, RAIN WILL BEGIN TO
OVERSPREAD THE TENNESSEE VALLEY FROM WEST TO EAST. LOW TO MEDIUM
(30-50%) CHANCES OF PRECIP IS FORECAST TONIGHT WITH THE HIGHEST
VALUES FURTHER TO THE SOUTH. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SHORTWAVE WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT
BRINGING AN END TO THE RAIN BEFORE SUNRISE MONDAY. GIVEN THE CLOUD
COVER AND PRECIP, OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL NOT DROP MUCH FROM
CURRENT TEMPS WITH LOWS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE UPPER 30S.
SHORT TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 950 AM CST SUN DEC 7 2025
A LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE POSITIONED ACROSS MUCH OF
THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS AS WE START THE DAY ON MONDAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW COLDER AIR TO FILTER IN POST COLD FRONT, RESULTING
IN A CHILLY START TO THE NEW WORK WEEK. AFTERNOON HIGHS ON MONDAY
WILL ONLY TOP OUT IN THE MID 40S, BUT WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT DURING THE DAY, EXPECT WINDS TO GUST 15-20 MPH AT TIMES
MAKING IT FEEL A BIT COLDER. THE TRUE COLDER AIRMASS WILL BE FELT
MONDAY NIGHT AS THE WINDS SUBSIDE BECOMING LIGHT AND COMBINED WITH
CLEAR SKIES MAKING FOR IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. LOWS
WILL DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S.
THE AFORMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ON
TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING SOME WEAK WAA IN THE FORM OF SFC WINDS
BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY. WHILE NOT EXPECTING A WARM DAY ON
TUESDAY, WE SHOULD RETURN TO THE LOWER 50S, BRINGING AN END TO A
SEVERAL DAY STREAK OF HIGHS ONLY IN THE 40S. NOT NEARLY AS COLD
TUESDAY NIGHT AS LOWS ONLY DROP INTO THE MID 30S.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 855 PM CST SAT DEC 6 2025
WEDNESDAY MAY BE THE BEST DAY OF THE ENTIRE FORECAST AS HIGH PRESSURE
AT THE SURFACE WILL PROMOTE DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS. AS A
RESULT, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL MAKE A RUN AT THE 60 DEGREE MARK IN
SOME LOCATIONS BY THE AFTERNOON. A FAST-MOVING TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES WILL ATTEMPT TO PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTH TOWARD THE REGION FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT
WILL PROBABLY STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT ALL THE WAY INTO THE AREA, BUT A
SECONDARY SHORTWAVE WILL INTERACT WITH THIS FEATURE AND GENERATE SOME
LOW CHANCES (20-40%) CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT. IN WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM, A COOLER, DRIER AIR MASS WILL SETTLE
INTO THE AREA BY FRIDAY.
A BROAD UPPER-TROUGH SITUATED OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO WILL
BECOME THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS LATE THIS
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. SEVERAL SUBTLE SHORTWAVES WILL TRAVERSE THIS
FEATURE, BRINGING ADDITIONAL REINFORCING SHOTS OF COOLER AIR INTO THE
REGION. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL PEAK IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S, WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS DROPPING INTO THE LOWER 20S. SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE EVEN
CHILLIER AS HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO CLIMB ABOVE THE 40
DEGREE MARK -- WITH LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE TEENS BEING COMMON.
SATURDAY NIGHT WE MAY NEED TO WATCH WIND CHILLS AS READINGS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS IN A FEW LOCATIONS MAY OCCUR ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
REGARDLESS, IT'S IMPORTANT TO RECOGNIZE THAT A SPILL OF COLDER
WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAVORED LATE NEXT WEEK
INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEK FOR MID-DECEMBER. MAKE SURE YOU REVIEW COMMON
SENSE SAFETY RULES FOR COLD WEATHER AND MAKE SURE YOU'RE PREPARED.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 548 PM CST SUN DEC 7 2025
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS, HOWEVER
THE INCOMING RAIN SHOWERS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO DIP CIGS INTO IFR
AT TIMES AT BOTH TERMINALS TIL ~08Z. AFTER THIS, MODELS CONTINUE
TO SUGGEST IFR CIGS WILL LINGER WELL INTO THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE
MVFR CIGS RETURN CLOSER TO 15Z. FROM HERE, MVFR WILL PREVAIL AND
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BE GUSTING UP TOWARDS 15KTS TIL SUNSET.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...GH
SHORT TERM....GH
LONG TERM....AMP
AVIATION...JMS
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