197
FXUS64 KHUN 281404
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
904 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 903 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2026
- A HEAT WAVE WILL OCCUR THIS WEEK WITH A HEAT RISK VALUE OF 3
OUT OF 4 (MAJOR CATEGORY) TO 4 OUT OF 4 (EXTREME CATEGORY).
- A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY THROUGH 7 PM
TUESDAY.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 903 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2026
A VERY WARM START TO THE DAY IS UNDERWAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOWER 80S AT THIS HOUR. SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 5-10 MPH WITH GUSTS
AROUND 15 MPH WILL ADD SOME RELIEF TO THE HEAT TODAY AS HIGHS
REACH THE 90-95F RANGE IN VALLEY AREAS AND MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S
ATOP THE HIGHER CUMBERLAND PLATEAU SECTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA.
THERE IS A SLIM CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IN OUR FAR EAST
TODAY DUE TO PLENTY OF INSTABILITY. BUT NOT LOCATING A DEFINED
TRIGGER AT THIS POINT UNLESS OUTFLOW PUSHES SOUTHWEST FROM THE MCS
IN EAST TN. THE 5H HIGH OVER MS WILL BEGIN TO EXPAND AND SHIFT
NORTHWARD TONIGHT. FOR TONIGHT, OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE
LOWER 70S.
SHORT TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 903 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2026
THE 596 DKM 5H ANTICYCLONE WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST FROM NORTHERN MS
MONDAY MORNING TO THE KY/TN STATE LINE ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL
ENABLE EASTERLY FLOW TO BEGIN BY TUESDAY IN LOWER TO MID LEVELS,
AND THUS WILL HAVE TO MONITOR MOISTURE BACKDOORING OUR AREA FROM
THE EAST. FOR NOW, POPS OF 20% OR LESS WILL OCCUR DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS TUESDAY GENERALLY EAST OF I-65. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL REACH THE 93-97 RANGE IN VALLEYS ON MONDAY, AND 94-98 ON
TUESDAY (UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ATOP THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU).
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1056 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2026
BY MIDWEEK, THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT FROM BEING CENTERED OVER THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY TO THE APPALACHIANS. EVEN SO, THIS FEATURE WILL
LARGELY MAINTAIN ITS HOLD OVER THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.
GLOBAL MODELS THEN SHOW IT SHIFTING EASTWARD AND FLATTENING A BIT BY
THE WEEKEND AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES RIPPLE OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS OVER THE APPALACHIANS
AND SOUTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEKEND. WHILE
A VERY LOW CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS IS SUGGESTED BY THE NBM
FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, THE AFOREMENTIONED PATTERN INDICATES THAT
MOST AREAS ARE MORE LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY. ALTHOUGH, BY LATE IN THE
WEEK, AS THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS A BIT MORE EAST AND FLATTENS, PERHAPS
THE RETURN FLOW WOULD BE ENOUGH TO INCREASE SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES
(20-30%) AND BRING A MORE SUMMERTIME, DIURNAL PATTERN TO THE REGION.
OVERALL, THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE CONTINUED DANGEROUS HEAT.
HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN STEADY IN THE MID 90S, WITH SOME SPOTS
POTENTIALLY REACHING THE UPPER 90S (ESPECIALLY OVER NW AL) EACH DAY.
HEAT INDICES GENERALLY RANGE BETWEEN 102-110 DEGREES DURING THIS TIME
AS WELL. IN ADDITION, NWS HEATRISK IS SLATED TO BE MAJOR TO EXTREME
(LEVELS 3 AND 4 OUT OF 4) WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS IS LIKELY
DUE IN PART TO LOW TEMPERATURES NOT COOLING OFF MUCH AT NIGHT, WITH
VALUES FORECAST TO MERELY DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S EACH NIGHT.
WBGTS ARE ALSO IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES. THEREFORE, NOT
MUCH RELIEF IS IN SIGHT, AT LEAST THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY. HEAT
ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS HEAT WAVE.
MAKE SURE TO TAKE PRECAUTIONS FOR THE DANGEROUS HEAT! WEAR LIGHT-
COLORED LOOSE-FITTING CLOTHING, STAY HYDRATED, AND TAKE FREQUENT
BREAKS IN THE SHADE IF YOU WORK OUTSIDE OR HAVE OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES!
LOOK BEFORE YOU LOCK - NEVER LEAVE PEOPLE OR PETS IN VEHICLES!
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 551 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT EACH TERMINAL THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH SW WINDS AROUND 5-10 KTS AND A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 552 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2026
MODERATE RISK FOR MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES:
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER HAS INCLUDED THE TENNESSEE VALLEY IN A
MODERATE RISK FOR MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON JULY 5.
THIS MEANS THAT THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE (40-60%) FOR TEMPERATURES
TO REACH OR EXCEED 91-94 DEGREES WITH HEAT INDICES ABOVE 105 DEGREES
DURING THIS PERIOD.
MORE INFORMATION ON THE CPC U.S. HAZARDS OUTLOOK CAN BE FOUND AT:
HTTPS://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/PREDICTIONS/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR ALZ001>010-
016.
TN...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR TNZ076-096-
097.
NEAR TERM...17
SHORT TERM....17
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...AMP
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page