730  
FXUS64 KHUN 232052  
AFDHUN  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL  
352 PM CDT SAT MAR 23 2019  
   
NEAR TERM
 
(TONIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 352 PM CDT SAT MAR 23 2019  
 
TEMPS WERE ABLE TO WARM UP NICELY INTO THE 60S THIS AFTERNOON WITH  
HEIGHT RISES FROM THE RIDGE MOVING OVER THE REGION AND THE PLENTIFUL  
SUNSHINE. OUR NEXT SYSTEM CROSSES THE PLAINS, THE RIDGE WILL LOSE  
AMPLITUDE AND PUSH EASTWARD. AT THE SFC, A LOW WILL LIFT TOWARDS THE  
MIDWEST, SENDING THE HIGH OVERHEAD OVER TO THE MID ATLANTIC. THIS  
WILL VEER WINDS TO BECOME SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT TO SLOWLY START  
RETURNING MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE THIS  
EVENING AND NIGHT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM. THE SOUTHERLY  
WINDS AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS SEASONABLE  
IN THE LOW/MID 40S WHICH WILL FEEL MILD COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW  
CHILLY NIGHTS.  
   
SHORT TERM
 
(SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 352 PM CDT SAT MAR 23 2019  
 
ON SUNDAY, THE SFC LOW WILL LIFT ACROSS THE MIDWEST, PULLING A COLD  
FRONT TOWARDS THE LOWER MS VALLEY WHILE THE CLOSED LOW PUSHES  
THROUGH THE MIDWEST, IT WILL ENCOUNTER A STRONGER TROUGH THAT DIPS  
INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL CAUSE IT TO WEAKEN  
AND TAKE A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL RETURN  
SHOWERS TO THE TN VALLEY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND WAA WILL HELP TEMPS BE  
A TAD WARMER REACHING THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL  
BE MILD IN THE LOWER 50S.  
 
WITH THAT STRONGER TROUGH IN PLACE, THE UPPER AND SFC LOW WILL BE  
FORCED TO TRACK INTO THE OH VALLEY ON MONDAY. SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP  
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT EARLY MONDAY MORNING WITH  
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AFTER 12Z, THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH  
THE FRONT. BULK SHEAR ~40KTS WILL OCCUR LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY  
MONDAY MORNING, NOT ALIGNING UP WITH THE GREATEST INSTABILITY WHICH  
WILL MAINLY BE ELEVATED. WILL MONITOR TRENDS TO SEE IF THESE BECOME  
MORE IN LINE WITH EACH OTHER IN ORDER TO DEVELOP ANY STRONGER  
STORMS. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL TAPER OFF HEADING INTO MONDAY  
EVENING, LEAVING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS DRY. DAYTIME HIGHS ON MONDAY  
WILL REACH THE MID 60S AND TEMPS WILL BE SEASONABLE OVERNIGHT.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)  
ISSUED AT 352 PM CDT SAT MAR 23 2019  
 
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY, WITH SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPERATURES  
REALIZED, AS COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM NORTH OF THE  
US/CANADIAN BORDER DURING MONDAY MORNING, MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT  
LAKES AND REACHING THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST BY WEDNESDAY. THE  
COLDEST AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS HIGH WILL HEAD MORE TO THE EAST THAN  
SOUTH. DESPITE THAT, HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL RANGE IN THE  
MID AND UPPER 50S, AND LOWS WILL COOL IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40.  
THE LOWER END OF THIS RANGE COULD SUPPORT SOME BRIEF FROST  
DEVELOPMENT BEFORE DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. MODEL TRENDS HAVE WARMED  
SOMEWHAT FOR TUE NIGHT COMPARED TO WHAT WAS NOTED YESTERDAY.  
 
THE SURFACE HIGH EAST OF THE REGION AND A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL  
HELP WITH A GRADUAL WARM-UP IN TEMPERATURES FOR THE MIDWEEK AND  
BEYOND. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD WARM INTO THE MID 60S, THE UPPER  
60S ON THURSDAY, AND AROUND 70 FOR FRIDAY. THAT SAID, THE HIGH EAST  
OF THE NEW ENGLAND REGION WILL BE OVER THE COLD NW ATLANTIC. THE E-SE  
FLOW AROUND THIS RIDGE WILL RESULT IN SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPERATURES  
OVER NE ALABAMA - IN A SOMEWHAT OF A WEDGING EFFECT OF MODIFIED  
CHILLY AIR FROM THE EAST.  
 
ANOTHER SYSTEM FORECAST TO FORM EAST OF THE FRONT RANGE LATE NEXT  
WORK WILL WILL HEAD TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES, BRINGING A COLD FRONT  
TOWARDS THE AREA. THE MODELS FOR THE MOST PART HAVE TRENDED DRY, SO  
HAVE STAYED THAT WAY FOR FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. ENOUGH MOISTURE SHOULD  
BE PRESENT TO BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE VALLEY NEXT SATURDAY.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)  
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT SAT MAR 23 2019  
 
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT KHSV AND KMSL.  
AN APPROACHING SYSTEM WILL FILTER IN HIGH CLOUD COVER THIS AFTERNOON AND  
VEER LIGHT WINDS TO BECOME SOUTHERLY LATE TONIGHT. TOWARDS THE END OF  
THE TAF PERIOD, SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE JUST BELOW 10KTS AND SHOWERS  
WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE NW.  
 

 
   
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
AL...NONE.  
TN...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
NEAR TERM...JMS  
SHORT TERM...JMS  
LONG TERM...RSB  
AVIATION...JMS  
 
FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT  
WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.  
 
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