619  
FXUS64 KHUN 021150  
AFDHUN  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL  
550 AM CST FRI DEC 2 2022  
   
..NEW AVIATION
 
 
   
NEAR TERM
 
 
(TODAY)  
ISSUED AT 301 AM CST FRI DEC 2 2022  
 
SOMEWHAT OF A SPLIT-FLOW PATTERN WAS IN PLACE OVER THE GREATER  
CONUS, WITH A STREAM OF HIGH ALTITUDE MOISTURE MOVING IN FROM THE  
TROPICS EAST OF HAWAII, AND IN THE NORTHERN STREAM. SINCE THE LATE  
EVENING, ENOUGH OF THIS MOISTURE IN THE MID LEVELS WAS SUFFICIENT  
TO KEEP OUR RADAR IN PRECIPITATION MODE. THIS PRECIP HOWEVER HAS  
TO FALL THROUGH A PRONOUNCED DRY LAYER BETWEEN 850-900 MB, WHICH  
SO FAR HAS EFFECTIVELY EVAPORATED HYDROMETEORS AS THEY FALL TO THE  
SURFACE. GIVEN THIS DRY LAYER AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 20S TO AROUND  
30 DEGREES, WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF A MIX OF SLEET ACCOMPANIED  
ANY PRECIP THAT REACHED THE SURFACE. OTHERWISE WITH CLOUDS ON THE  
INCREASE FROM THE WEST, OVERNIGHT TEMPS RANGED IN MID 30S TO MID  
40S WITH LIGHT WINDS.  
 
AFTER DAYBREAK, LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME SE-S INCREASING INTO THE  
10-15 MPH RANGE WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 20 MPH IN MORE EXPOSED SPOTS.  
THIS WILL GRADUALLY BRING AN INCREASE IN LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE AS  
THE DAY PROGRESSES. DESPITE THIS MOISTURE AND AN INCREASE IN  
CLOUDS FROM THE WEST, MILD CONDITIONS WILL END THE WORK WEEK WITH  
HIGHS RISING INTO THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60. ENOUGH MOISTURE SHOULD  
BE PRESENT TO BRING LOWER END SHOWER CHANCES OVER FAR NW ALABAMA  
LATE THIS AFTERNOON.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
 
(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 301 AM CST FRI DEC 2 2022  
 
CHANCES OF RAIN WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING, ESPECIALLY IN THE  
OVERNIGHT AS DEVELOPING SYNOPTIC LOW MOVES FROM THE CENTRAL  
ROCKIES TO THE GREAT LAKES, AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE  
WEST. THE BEST RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED IN THE LATE NIGHT AND  
SATURDAY MORNING PRECEDING THE FRONT. A SOUNDING VIEW INDICTED  
ENOUGH INSTABILITY ALOFT TO SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED EMBEDDED  
THUNDERSTORMS, WITHIN MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. UNLIKE FEW DAYS  
AGO, STORMS SHOULD REMAIN ON THE "GENERAL" SIDE INTENSITY WISE  
WITH THE USUAL GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THE COLD  
FRONT SHOULD SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA SAT, WITH RAIN CHANCES ENDING  
FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE AFTERNOON. EVEN WARMER CONDITIONS SHOULD  
HELP CLOSE OUT THE WEEK WITH HIGHS RISING INTO THE LOWER 60S.  
 
A BRIEF DRY SPELL IS FORECAST FROM WEST TO EAST SAT AFTERNOON AND  
NIGHT, AS COLDER AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND THE FRONT. COLDER AIR WILL  
PRODUCE LOWS FOR THE PREDAWN OF SUNDAY COOLING INTO THE 30S (LOWER  
30S NORTH TO UPPER 30S SOUTH). ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE  
WEST WILL BRING MORE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS SUN AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.  
HIGHS ON SUN SHOULD WARM INTO THE LOW/MID 50S, AND LOWS RANGING IN  
THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM
 
 
(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)  
ISSUED AT 301 AM CST FRI DEC 2 2022  
 
KEEP THE UMBRELLA HANDY THIS WEEK AS WE GET STUCK IN AN UNSETTLED  
WEATHER PATTERN. THE PRIMARY FOCUS IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL  
BE THE POTENTIAL FOR MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF RAINFALL AND ASSOCIATED  
FLOODING CONCERNS.  
 
NEXT WEEK WE'LL BE IN BETWEEN A RIDGE IN THE GULF AND AN UPPER LEVEL  
TROUGH UP IN CENTRAL CANADA, WITH A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL  
TROUGH LINGERING OVER THE WEST COAST. THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT  
COMBINED WITH THE SOUTHERLY SFC FLOW, STREAMING IN WAA AND MOISTURE INTO  
THE REGION. THIS WILL START THE TREND OF TEMPS BEING ABOVE SEASONAL  
NORMS THROUGH MIDWEEK. TEMPS MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL REACH THE UPPER  
50S. WE'LL ALSO SEE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS  
(50-70%) AS A DISTURBANCES SLIDES THROUGH AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING  
FRONT. AS SOUTHERLY WINDS PERSIST OVERNIGHT WITH OVERCAST SKIES, LOWS  
MONDAY NIGHT WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S WHICH IS  
MORE IN LINE WITH OUR NORMAL HIGHS FOR EARLY DECEMBER.  
 
ON TUESDAY, THERE WILL BE AN ADDITIONAL PUSH OF WAA AND MOISTURE AS A  
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD. THIS WILL KEEP SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL REACH  
THE MID/UPPER 60S, +10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. HEADING INTO MIDWEEK,  
MODELS DON'T SEEM TO AGREE AS MUCH. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY REGARDING  
IF THE TROUGH OUT WEST CLOSES OFF OR STAYS AS AN OPEN WAVE AS IT RUNS  
INTO THE GULF RIDGE OUT IN THE SOUTHWEST, ON THE TIME OF ARRIVAL OF  
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND EXACTLY WHERE THE FRONT WILL STALL  
OUT. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT WILL ARRIVE ON WEDNESDAY AND  
STALL EITHER OVER US OR JUST NORTH OF US THROUGH THURSDAY BRINGING  
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL. WILL MONITOR TRENDS  
OVER THE COMING DAYS FOR FLOODING CONCERNS AS THE PROLONGED RAINFALL  
COULD PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2-4". THIS DEPENDS OF COURSE ON  
EXACTLY WHERE THAT FRONT HOLDS UP, BUT IS STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF  
RAINFALL.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
(12Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 550 AM CST FRI DEC 2 2022  
 
A STREAM OF SCT-BKN MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ~12KFT AGL IN THE PREDAWN  
WILL GRADUALLY BECOME BKN-OVC THIS AFTERNOON AS A SYSTEM NEARS  
FROM THE WEST. A FEW SPRINKLES REACHING THE SURFACE ARE POSSIBLE  
INTO THE LATE MORNING. A RETURN OF LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE  
SOUTH AND THE SYSTEM NEARING WILL BRING CHANCES OF SHOWERS MAINLY  
THIS EVENING AND IN THE OVERNIGHT. STAYED WITH A PROB30 LATER IN  
THE TAF GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING. THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED WITHIN  
MORE NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT. ALSO,  
WINDS AT 2KFT AGL WILL BE FROM THE SW 35-40 KT, CLOSE TO LOW LEVEL  
WIND SHEAR CRITERIA. THE LAST TWO ITEMS DID NOT PUT IN THE TAF  
THIS ISSUANCE WITH LOW CONFIDENCE THIS FAR OUT.  
 

 
   
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
AL...NONE.  
TN...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
NEAR TERM...RSB  
SHORT TERM....RSB  
LONG TERM....JMS  
AVIATION...RSB  
 
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