689
FXUS64 KHUN 050540
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1240 AM CDT MON OCT 5 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1030 PM CDT SUN OCT 4 2026
- DRY, WARM WEATHER, BUT LOWER HUMIDITY, IS EXPECTED THROUGH
FRIDAY.
- RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE AREA AGAIN NEXT WEEKEND,
WITH CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS (20-30%) ON SATURDAY.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TONIGHT AND MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1045 PM CDT SUN OCT 4 2026
LATE EVENING ANALYSIS SHOWS A SUB-TROPICAL JET ATOP THE REGION
WHILE A SFC COLD FRONT IS MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA. THE
SFC FRONT IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY NON-DESCRIPT AS IT MOVES ACROSS
THE REGION, BUT A WEAKENED N-S DEW POINT GRADIENT WAS NOTED LATE
THIS EVENING IN SFC OBS. NEVERTHELESS, BASED ON THIS GRADIENT, AND
PRESSURE OBS, THE FRONT APPEARS TO BE SLICING THE FORECAST AREA
NEARLY IN HALF FROM SW-NE. RISING PRESSURES RECENTLY SUGGEST THE
FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH HUNTSVILLE-DECATUR-FLORENCE AREAS, BUT SE
AREAS REMAIN AHEAD OF THE FRONT. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED
ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN PORTIONS OF MORGAN/MARSHALL/DEKALB
COUNTIES, WHICH MAY TEND TO CONTINUE AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES.
THESE SHOWERS AND THE FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OUR SOUTHERN
BORDER BY DAYBREAK, SO LOW POPS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR
FAR SE AREAS THRU ~5 AM CDT.
THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SLIP FARTHER TO OUR SOUTH ON MONDAY WHILE
A SFC CONTINENTAL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD TO OUR NORTH
INTO THE MIDWEST. FLOW WILL INCREASE FROM THE NE DURING THE
MORNING, AND MIXING OF SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS ALOFT MAY RESULT IN
SOME GUSTY CONDITIONS, ALTHOUGH WIND GUSTS MAY GENERALLY BE AROUND
20 MPH OR LOWER. COLD ADVECTION WILL BE RELATIVELY MILD WITH THIS
INCOMING AIR MASS BUT DEW POINT ADVECTION IN THE EARLY-OCTOBER AIR
MASS WILL BE A BIT STRONGER. TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO
CLIMB INTO THE 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS, BUT DEW POINT TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST TO FALL INTO THE 50S FOR MANY LOCATIONS (ESPECIALLY
NORTH). THIS WILL MAKE FOR MORE EARLY FALL-LIKE CONDITIONS DESPITE
THE WARM DAYTIME TEMPERATURES.
SHORT TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1045 PM CDT SUN OCT 4 2026
THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL FEATURE A LOW-
AMPLITUDE TROUGH CONTINUING ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS, WHILE THE
OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY TENDS TO STALL IN THE GULF REGION. WHILE THE
UPR TROUGH WILL HOLD SWAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER STATES AND IN
THE GRT LAKES, A BROAD SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE WILL TEND TO MAINTAIN A
PRESENCE OFF THE EAST COAST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A MIX OF AIR
MASSES ACROSS OUR AREA, BOTH WITH A MARITIME AND CONTINENTAL
INFLUENCE. THIS WILL RESULT IN LOWER DEW POINT TEMPERATURES THAN
WHAT WE HAVE EXPERIENCE IN RECENT DAYS, BUT WARM DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE PRESENT. DEW POINT TEMPS WILL TEND TO
BE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S THROUGH THE PERIOD, WHILE DAYTIME TEMPS
WILL STILL MANAGE TO RISE WELL INTO THE 80S BOTH TUE/WED. BEING
LARGELY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE, DRY WEATHER IS
ANTICIPATED FOR THE PERIOD.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1045 PM CDT SUN OCT 4 2026
DRY CONDITIONS WITH ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH FOR EARLY OCTOBER CONTINUES
THURSDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT
PLAINS TO OFF OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SHOULD BRING AN EASTERLY
FLOW ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES, WARM
TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL WITH HIGHS RISING INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S.
THIS WARMTH WILL RESULT IN LOW AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES REDUCED
INTO THE MID 20S PERCENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WEST OF
I-65. A FORECAST OF LIGHT WINDS SHOULD HELP TEMPER ELEVATED OUTDOOR
FIRE SPREAD RISKS. SIMILAR WARMTH IS FORECAST FRI WITH HIGHS AGAIN
CLIMBING INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S, WITH SIMILAR REDUCED MID AFTERNOON
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES. LOW TEMPERATURES BOTH THU/FRI NIGHT SHOULD COOL
INTO THE 50S.
A FORECAST FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND IS ONE OF LOW CONFIDENCE
REGARDING RAIN CHANCES. THE MODELS GENERALLY SHOW MOISTURE TO OUR
SOUTH MOVING FURTHER NORTHWARD. SOME OF THE MODELS, ESPECIALLY THE
12Z CANADIAN AND 18Z GFS HINT AT A POTENTIAL TROPICAL SYSTEM MOVING
FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF AMERICA, ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH (INCLUDING
THIS REGION) SAT INTO SUN. THE 12Z ECMWF KEPT IT'S TROPICAL ENTITY
MORE OVER THE WESTERN GULF, WITH LESSER MOISTURE IMPACTING THIS
REGION. MANY THINGS COULD OCCUR WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM
AS WE GO THROUGH THE WEEK; SOMETHING THAT'LL CLOSELY BE MONITORED.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1240 AM CDT MON OCT 5 2026
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ORIENTED WSW-ENE ACROSS CENTRAL AL SHOULD
CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHWARD THROUGH MON MORNING. THIS FOR THE MOST
PART SHOULD YIELD VFR CIGS OVER THE TERMINALS. GIVEN SOME LOWER
CLOUDS STILL IN PLACE, HAVE PREVAILING MVFR CIGS AT KHSV, WITH
OCNL VFR BREAKS EARLY IN THE TAF. CONDITIONS THERE AND ELSEWHERE
SHOULD BECOME VFR FROM THE LATE NIGHT AND ONWARD. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING SOUTHWARD WILL CONTINUE A NNE FLOW AROUND 5 KT INTO MON
MORNING. NNE WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO 10-15 KT IN THE LATE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON, BEFORE SUBSIDING BY THE EARLY EVENING.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...KDW
SHORT TERM....KDW
LONG TERM....RSB
AVIATION...RSB
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page