453
FXUS64 KHUN 241705
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1105 AM CST WED DEC 24 2025
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1105 AM CST WED DEC 24 2025
- TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH SUNDAY, WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 60S-MID 70S.
- A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY NIGHT,
BRINGING HIGH CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION SUNDAY EVENING AND MUCH
COLDER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1105 AM CST WED DEC 24 2025
A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL HIGH WILL REMAIN POSITIONED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GULF THROUGH THE NEAR TERM PERIOD, MAINTAINING NW FLOW
ALOFT OF 30-40 KNOTS ACROSS THE TN VALLEY. ALONG THE NORTHERN RIM
OF THE BROADER RIDGE, A VORTICITY MAXIMA WILL TRAVEL
ANTICYCLONICALLY FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO WESTERN
PORTIONS OF VA/NC BY THE END OF THE PERIOD, WITH THIS DISTURBANCE
PREDICTED TO INITIATE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK SURFACE LOW ACROSS
EASTERN KS/WESTERN MO LATER TODAY. IN THE LOW-LEVELS, OUR FORECAST
AREA WILL REMAIN WITHIN A LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME TODAY
BETWEEN A HIGH ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND A WEAKENING COLD
FRONT (CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHERN KY) THAT WILL ADVANCE
NORTHWARD IN RESPONSE TO SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS TO OUR NORTHWEST.
ALTHOUGH RADAR REFLECTIVITY DATA INDICATED THE PRESENCE OF A FEW
LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS AND POCKETS OF SPRINKLES SPREADING
SOUTHEASTWARD OFF THE FRONT AND INTO OUR REGION EARLIER THIS
MORNING, WE EXPECT THIS REGIME TO PROGRESSIVELY END FROM SW-TO-NE
OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY AS AN EFFECTIVE WARM FRONT BECOMES
ESTABLISHED TO OUR NORTHEAST. WITH SKIES TRANSITIONING TO PARTLY
CLOUDY-MOSTLY SUNNY AS THIS OCCURS, HIGHS APPEAR ON TRACK TO REACH
THE M-U 60S IN ELEVATED TERRAIN AND L-M 70S IN THE VALLEY.
OVERNIGHT, A WEAK SURFACE LOW (INITIALLY ACROSS EASTERN
KS/WESTERN MO) WILL SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE UPPER OH VALLEY,
FOCUSING THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS EVEN A FEW
WEAK THUNDERSTORMS WELL TO OUR NORTHEAST. LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL PERSIST ACROSS OUR REGION, MAINTAINING
A MOIST AIRMASS (CHARACTERIZED BY DEWPOINTS IN THE M-U 50S) AND
THIS WILL PROVIDE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT OF FOG
BEGINNING EARLY THIS EVENING. AS TEMPERATURES DESCEND INTO THE L-M
50S, FOG COULD BECOME WIDESPREAD AND LOCALLY DENSE DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS ON CHRISTMAS DAY.
SHORT TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1105 AM CST WED DEC 24 2025
SHORT RANGE MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THAT THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
TO OUR SOUTH WILL GRADUALLY DEAMPLIFY DURING THE TIMEFRAME FROM
THURSDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT, AS A STRONGER MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE LIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY BY
FRIDAY MORNING AND INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF
ANOTHER/STRONGER SURFACE LOW OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
THURSDAY, WHICH WILL PROGRESS INTO THE MID-MS VALLEY THURSDAY
NIGHT AND ACROSS IL/IN/OH ON FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH FORECAST SOUNDINGS
DO NOT SUGGEST ANY APPRECIABLE CHANGE IN THE MAGNITUDE OF DEEP-
LAYER FLOW ACROSS OUR REGION AS THIS OCCURS, THIS EVOLUTION WILL
RESULT IN GRADUAL BACKING OF WINDS (PARTICULARLY IN THE LOW-
LEVELS), WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WEAK LIFT WITHIN AN INCREASINGLY
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER. THUS, WE EXPECT EARLY MORNING FOG ON
CHRISTMAS DAY TO TRANSITION INTO AN OVERCAST LAYER OF LOW STRATUS
CLOUDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY, WHICH WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN A PRESENCE
ACROSS THE CWFA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT (IF NOT BEYOND). CHANCES FOR
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN VERY LOW (LESS THAN 10%) FOR
MOST OF THE PERIOD, ALTHOUGH SOME DRIZZLE WILL CERTAINLY BE
POSSIBLE BENEATH THE STRATUS LAYER. HOWEVER, A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING, AS DEWPOINTS RISE
FURTHER INTO THE LOW 60S AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW'S TRAILING COLD
FRONT (WHICH WILL STALL TO OUR NORTHWEST). TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN MILD THROUGH THE PERIOD (IN SPITE OF CLOUD COVER), WITH
HIGHS IN THE U60S-M70S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE M-U 50S.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 959 PM CST TUE DEC 23 2025
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WILL BRING THE LAST OF THE STRING
UNSEASONABLY MILD DAYS AS AN UPPER RIDGE SHIFT EAST AS A DEEP
UPPER LOW AND TROUGH SWINGS SOUTHEAST INTO THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS
BRINGS A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A ROUND OF SHOWERS WILL OCCUR WITH THE
FRONT, ALTHOUGH WILL NEED TO ASSESS STABILITY TRENDS AS WE MOVE
CLOSER GIVEN THE STRONG BULK SHEAR. BUT AT THIS TIME, NO
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST, BUT STAY TUNED. AFTER HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 70S SATURDAY AND UPPER 60S SUNDAY, THE BOTTOM DROPS OUT WITH
READINGS FALLING INTO THE 20S SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGHS WILL BE HELD TO
THE 30S MONDAY AND TUESDAY, WITH TUESDAY MORNING LOWS IN THE
TEENS. BLUSTERY NORTH WINDS OF 10-20 MPH ARE EXPECTED MONDAY,
DIMINISHING GREATLY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 544 AM CST WED DEC 24 2025
AN AREA OF STRATUS WAS COVERING A PORTION OF THE CONUS FROM THE
OH/TN VALLEYS TO PARTS OF THE DEEP SOUTH. WHILE THE MAJORITY OF
THE CLOUD BASES WERE VFR, A FEW AREAS HAD MVFR CIG. A FEW
LOCATIONS FURTHER TO OUR WEST WERE BEING IMPACTED BY FOG
(OCCURRING BECAUSE THESE CLOUDS FADED). DAYTIME HEATING AND MIXING
SHOULD RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS FROM THE MID MORNING THROUGH
TONIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH WILL PROVIDE A LIGHT
S-SW FLOW BEGINNING A FEW HOURS AFTER DAYBREAK INTO THE EARLY
EVENING.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...70/DD
SHORT TERM...70/DD
LONG TERM...17
AVIATION...RSB
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