046
FXUS64 KHUN 190113
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
813 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 813 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2026
- GUSTY WINDS WILL BE PRESENT TONIGHT AND LINGER THROUGH THE DAY
TOMORROW.
- AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE WEEKEND BRINING
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR RAIN AND STORMS.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TONIGHT AND SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 813 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2026
AS OF AROUND 8 PM, THE COLD FRONT THAT PROMPTED RAIN AND STORMS
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING HAS NEARLY MOVED THROUGH THE ENTIRE AREA.
THIS CAN BE SEEN BY THE LEADING EDGE OF REFLECTIVITY MOVING
THROUGH DEKALB COUNTY AND WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NW BEHIND THIS
FEATURE. POST FRONTAL CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN WILL LINGER BEHIND
THE FRONT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AS THE BASE OF THE PARENT TROUGH
SLOWLY SWINGS EAST. EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, SKIES WILL BEGIN TO
CLEAR FROM THE NW AIDED BY STRONG NNW FLOW BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING WITH
GUSTS OF 25-30 MPH POSSIBLE. THE STRONG NNW FLOW WILL USHER IN A
MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS WITH MORNING LOWS DROPPING INTO THE
40S AND DEW POINTS DROPPING INTO THE 30S.
BY SUNRISE, SKIES SHOULD BE CLEAR. THROUGH THE DAY STRONG NNW FLOW
WILL CONTINUE AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR WEST. THIS
WILL MAINTAIN GUSTY WINDS AND LIMITING TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL
ONLY MAKE IT INTO THE MID 60S. THE GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RH (~30%)
WOULD NORMALLY SPARK SOME CONCERN FOR FIRE WEATHER YET WITH THIS
EVENINGS COLD FRONT PROVIDING WIDE SPREAD WETTING RAINS, WE DON'T
ANTICIPATE WIDE SPREAD FIRE CONCERNS.
SHORT TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 813 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2026
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS FROM ITS
CURRENT POSITION TO OUR WEST OVER TO THE MID ATLANTIC. THIS WILL
KEEP CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY.
AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS, WE WILL SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
TEMPS AND DEW POINTS FROM MONDAY TO TUESDAYS AS SURFACE FLOW
SHIFTS TO THE ESE. HIGHS WILL WARM FROM THE MID 70S ON MONDAY TO
THE LOW 80S ON TUESDAY. DEW POINTS WILL RISE FROM THE MID 30S TO
HIGH 40S BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE LOW DEW POINTS WILL KEEP MIN RH
NEAR 30%, HOWEVER HIGH PRESSURE WILL SUPPRESS WINDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD, DECREASING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 813 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2026
BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS EASTERN
GA AND SC WILL BE THE MAIN DRIVER OF THE LOCAL WEATHER PATTERN. AS A
RESULT, A DRY FORECAST IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS ALSO ANTICIPATED AS MID LEVEL RIDGING
SLOWLY AMPLIFIES BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 80S WEDNESDAY AND MID 80S ON THURSDAY WITH MORNING LOWS IN
THE MID 50S. ON FRIDAY, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE ROCKIES DIGS
SOUTHEAST INTO THE PLAINS. AS A SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EJECTS
EASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION, A COLD
FRONT TO ITS SOUTH WILL STRETCH INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. LATEST
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE FAR SOUTHERN EDGE OF THIS FRONT
WILL REACH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE DAY ON
FRIDAY BRING A LOW TO MEDIUM (40-60%) CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE COLD FRONT STALLS ACROSS THE LOCAL FORECAST
CONTINUING MEDIUM RAIN CHANCES THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS FAR OUT, SEVERE
STORMS CHANCES APPEAR QUITE LOW, BUT THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO KEEP
AN EYE ON AS WE HEAD THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 557 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2026
A BROKEN AREA OF TSRA IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE TN VALLEY.
THE LINE HAS ALREADY PASSED MSL, THUS NO THUNDER HAS BEEN INCLUDED
IN THE TAF, RATHER JUST LINGERING LOW MVFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES. THE AREA OF STRONGER TSRA WILL LIKELY BE IMPACTING
HSV AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. A TEMPO GROUP HAS BEEN INCLUDED TO
ACCOUNT FOR LOWERING OF CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AS THE
STRONGEST STORMS MOVE THROUGH. HEAVIEST RAIN AND STORMS LOOK TO
MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY 6Z WITH LOW MVFR CLOUDS LINGERING BEHIND
THE FRONT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND AID IN CLEARING SKIES
AROUND SUNRISE. CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW
WITH GUSTY FROM THE NORTH BEING THE ONLY LINGERING IMPACT.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...RAD
SHORT TERM....RAD
LONG TERM....GH
AVIATION...RAD
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