324
FXUS64 KHUN 310834
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
334 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 334 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2026
- MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES (40-70%) OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUES TODAY AND MONDAY.
- A LOW CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IS FORECAST ON MONDAY
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION, WITH GUSTY WINDS,
HAIL, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS THE MAIN THREATS.
- DRIER AND MORE MILD CONDITIONS TAKE HOLD TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2026
AT THE MOMENT, NO SHOWER ACTIVITY WAS IN PROGRESS OVER THE GREATER
HUN FORECAST AREA. THERE WERE SOME SHOWERS TRYING TO FORM FURTHER
AWAY, LIKE ALONG THE CENTRAL AL/GA BORDER. OF MORE CONCERN IS THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FOG OVER PARTS OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. SOME OF
THIS FOG WAS BECOMING LOCALLY DENSE (SURFACE VISIBILITIES OF 1/4
OF A MILE OR LESS). AT THE MOMENT, DENSE FOG WAS BEING REPORTED AT
THE GUNTERSVILLE AND FT PAYNE. GIVEN WE HAVE A FEW MORE HOURS
BEFORE DAYBREAK, WE MAY NEED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY SHOULD COVERAGE
EXPAND MORE. THERE IS LITTLE HOPE FOR LOCAL SHOWER DEVELOPMENT,
THAT WOULD HELP BREAK UP FOG FORMATION.
FOG THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK, WITH A
MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS EXPECTED. A WEST TO EAST ORIENTED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY NOW POSITIONED OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY SHOULD MOVE
FURTHER SOUTHWARD TODAY AS A COLD FRONT. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO
ANOTHER SYNOPTIC SCALE TROUGH AMPLIFYING OVER THE NE CONUS.
DESPITE THE BOUNDARY MOVING FURTHER SOUTHWARD, THERE REMAINS HIGH
MOISTURE CONTENT WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER AMOUNTS OF 1.7" TO 2"
DEPENDING UPON THE MODEL AND TIME OF DAY. HEATING OF THIS AIRMASS
(WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE UPPER 70S EAST TO MID 80S
WEST), WILL INCREASE INSTABILITY. THE MODELS HAVE SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REFIRING IN THE MID/LATE
MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE EVENING. FORECAST SURFACE BASED
CAPE FROM 800 EAST TO +2000 J/KG WEST, BUT WEAK SHEAR WOULD
SUPPORT SOME STORMS BECOMING STRONG. STRONG OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS,
HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING GENERATION ARE LIKELY FROM
THE STRONGER STORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL COULD PRODUCE MINOR
FLOODING AND/OR RISES OF WATER LEVELS OF AREA STREAMS, CREEKS, AND
RIVERS.
SHORT TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 926 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2026
WE REMAIN IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A
MID/UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES AS IT MOVES FROM THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.
UPSTREAM, GUIDANCE HINTS AT AN MCS DEVELOPING ACROSS MO/AR AND
MOVING SE/ESE WITH THE MEAN FLOW, EVENTUALLY MAKING IT INTO THE
REGION SOMETIME MID/LATE MONDAY MORNING. AN ADDITIONAL
LINE/CLUSTER OF STORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE MID SOUTH AND MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING ON MONDAY.
HI-RES GUIDANCE, IN PARTICULAR, HAS GOTTEN A LITTLE MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH SOME OF THE INGREDIENTS AND WE COULD POTENTIALLY
HAVE AN ENVIRONMENT THAT WOULD SUPPORT STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. THE APPROACHING MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL
INCREASE BULK SHEAR VALUES ACROSS THE REGION TO AROUND 30-40 KTS.
MEANWHILE, THERMODYNAMICALLY, WE'LL BE SURFACE-BASED WITH SOME
CONSIDERABLE INSTABILITY (MLCAPE VALUES POTENTIALLY OVER 2000
J/KG), WITH VERY STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7.5-8.0 C/KM.
MODEL SOUNDINGS DO EXHIBIT A GOOD AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IN THE MID-
LEVELS (DCAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG), WHICH WOULD SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL
FOR LOCALIZED STRONG, DAMAGING WINDS -- TO GO ALONG WITH HAIL AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL (PWATS AROUND 1.5"). MODEL SOUNDINGS AND
HODOGRAPHS FAVOR VERY UNIDIRECTIONAL NORTHWEST FLOW AND THIS SETUP
DOES NOT APPEAR SUPPORTIVE OF A TORNADO THREAT. SPC HAS THE ENTIRE
REGION OUTLOOKED IN A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) OF SEVERE
WEATHER. THE PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY IS THE STILL LOW CONFIDENCE IN
WHERE CONVECTION WILL FORM UPSTREAM AND THE EXACT TRACK/MOTION IT
WOULD TAKE OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL GREATLY IMPACT OUR CHANCES IN THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY ON MONDAY. THOSE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS SHOULD PAY
ATTENTION TO THE FORECAST GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG/SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY.
THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH WILL BRING A FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
MONDAY EVENING, BRINGING AN END TO THE STORMS AND A COOLER, DRIER
AIR MASS INTO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY. THIS WILL PUSH HIGHS BACK
INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AND FINALLY KEEP POPS BELOW 10
PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 926 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2026
A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY MID TO LATE WEEK, PROMOTING PLENTY OF SUNSHINE EACH DAY AND
DRY, TRANQUIL WEATHER. AS A RESULT OF AMPLE SUNSHINE EACH DAY,
HIGHS WILL REACH THE 80S, BUT LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S
TO LOW/MID 60S IN THIS DRIER AIR MASS. THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE LARGELY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK, WITH THE NEXT
CHANCE OF RAIN LIKELY ARRIVING LATE NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2026
LOW STRATUS WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
(WITH POTENTIALLY SOME LIGHT FOG AS WELL), PROMPTING MVFR
CONDITIONS. CEILINGS WILL LIFT BACK TO LOW-END VFR CONDITIONS
DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. HAVE ADDED A PROB30
DURING THE 18-00Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR
CONDITIONS FROM TSRA.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...RSB
SHORT TERM....AMP.24
LONG TERM....AMP.24
AVIATION...AMP.24
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