390
FXUS64 KHUN 210500
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1200 AM CDT TUE APR 21 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 859 PM CDT MON APR 20 2026
- A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN ARRIVES ON FRIDAY WITH RAIN AND STORMS
IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE NEW WORK WEEK.
- WE WILL BE MONITORING FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER
DURING THE PERIOD MENTIONED ABOVE, NO SEVERE WEATHER IS
CURRENTLY FORECAST.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TONIGHT AND TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 859 PM CDT MON APR 20 2026
ANOTHER NIGHT OF CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING TO DROP TEMPS INTO THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S.
THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFF THE
ATLANTIC COAST ELICITING RETURN FROM FROM THE SSE. THE WEAK WWA
FROM RETURN FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM TO THE HIGH 70S TO LOW
80S.
ON A BROADER SCALE, A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CAN CURRENTLY BE
SEEN SHIFTING THROUGH EAST TEXAS TOWARDS THE GULF COAST. THROUGH
THE DAY TOMORROW, THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRAVEL EAST ACROSS
THE GULF COAST. WE WILL BE TOO FAR REMOVED TO THE NORTH TO SEE ANY
RAIN OR WIND ASSOCIATED WITH THEY SYSTEM HOWEVER WE WILL SEE AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER FROM THE SW THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. PARTLY
TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL BE PRESENT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY AS THE AFORMENTIONED GULF SYSTEM PUSHES EAST.
SHORT TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 859 PM CDT MON APR 20 2026
CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT ON TUESDAY IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE GULF
COAST. BY WEDNESDAY, RIDGING ALOFT WILL NUDGE THE SHORTWAVE
PROMPTING THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SOUTH TOWARDS THE FL PENINSULA.
THIS WILL CLEAR SKIES AS RIDGING BUILDS THROUGH THE CENTRAL CONUS
BEHIND THIS FEATURE. AT THE SURFACE, WE WILL FIND OURSELF
SANDWICHED BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST AND A DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS. ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED FRONTS (ADDRESSED
IN THE LONG TERM) STRONG SSW FLOW WILL DEVELOP ALLOWING FOR
ADDITIONAL WAA. HIGHS WILL BREAK INTO THE 80S ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WITH CLEAR SKIES STILL PREVAILING THANKS TO THE HIGH
PRESSURE TO OUR EAST. THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ON THURSDAY
WILL SUPPORT SOME GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WITH A WET
AND STORMY PATTERN AHEAD, THURSDAY WILL BE THE NICEST DAY THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 859 PM CDT MON APR 20 2026
AN ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER IS FORECAST DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD
BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL TO THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY. THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BREAKS DOWN
LEAVING A MORE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. AS A SFC
LOW ACROSS THE DAKOTAS SLOWLY MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST, AN
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST DOWN SOUTH INTO
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY SWINGS EAST FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING A
MEDIUM/HIGH CHANCE (50-70%) OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE LOCAL
FORECAST AREA STARTING FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY. A
FEW SHORTWAVES RIDING ALONG THE UPPER LEVEL JET FROM TEXAS TOWARDS
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL RIPPLE THROUGH THE AREA THIS WEEKEND
KEEPING MEDIUM CHANCES (40-60%) OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH SUNDAY.
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING REMAINS QUITE LOW WITH THESE WEEKEND SYSTEMS,
BUT THE MAIN THREAT IS LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. SOMETHING THAT IS MUCH
NEEDED GIVEN THE ABNORMALLY DRY SPRING. THERE IS AT LEAST LOW
PROBABILITIES OF SOME STRONG STORMS, MAINLY ON SATURDAY AS THAT IS
WHEN THE GOOD SHEAR OVERLAPS WITH MODEST INSTABILITY.
AS WE HEAD INTO MONDAY A MORE PRONOUNCED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS DOWN
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. SFC CYCLOGENESIS IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP
ACROSS OK/TX AND THEN THE LOW WILL EJECT NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE
PLAINS. THE COLD FRONT TO ITS SOUTH IS FORECAST TO SWING THROUGH
MONDAY BRINGING MEDIUM CHANCES (40-60%) OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
ONCE AGAIN THERE ARE SIGNS OF STRONG TO MAYBE SEVERE STORMS
COINCIDING WITH THIS SYSTEM GIVEN THE ENSEMBLE MEANS HAVE 40-50 KNOTS
OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR COMBINED WITH 500-750 J/KG OF CAPE. A LOT CAN
CHANGE BETWEEN NOW AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, BUT TRENDS CONTINUE TO
SHOW AN ACTIVE PATTERN.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT TUE APR 21 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS
WELL.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...RAD
SHORT TERM....RAD
LONG TERM....GH
AVIATION...26
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