509
FXUS64 KHUN 160831
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
331 AM CDT THU APR 16 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1039 PM CDT WED APR 15 2026
- THERE IS A LOW-MEDIUM (20-50%) CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY (MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING). A FEW
STORMS COULD PRODUCE STRONG WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.
- THERE IS A HIGH (60-80%) CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE
STRONG WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.
- A COOL/DRY AIRMASS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION SUNDAY AND
MONDAY, FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT THU APR 16 2026
FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY, WITH JUST SOME PASSING CIRRUS CLOUDS OVERHEAD AND A BROAD
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH RESULTING A LIGHT SOUTHWEST
WINDS. LATER TODAY HOWEVER, WE'LL SEE THE FIRST PRECIPITATION
WE'VE HAD IN 10-11 DAYS AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE RIPPLES FROM THE MID-
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOUR HOURS. THIS WILL SENT A WEAK
FRONT FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST ALONG THE I-40 CORRIDOR OF TENNESSEE
AND ARKANSAS, SERVING AS A FOCUS FOR SOME CONVECTION LATE THIS
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE, ESPECIALLY AS
IT PUSHES SOUTH AND EAST, WITH LOW TO MEDIUM POPS OF AROUND 20-50%
FROM THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. 30-40 KTS OF BULK
SHEAR SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME ORGANIZED CLUSTERS OF STORMS, WITH
THE INVERTED-V PROFILE EXHIBITING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOCALIZED
GUSTY, DAMAGING WINDS (ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF
THE TENNESSEE RIVER). THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR FOR ANYTHING
STRONG TO SEVERE WILL BE THE MODEST INSTABILITY (SBCAPE VALUES
AROUND 400-600 J/KG IN THE LATE AFTERNOON) AND A STOUT CAPPING
INVERSION ALOFT BY THE EVENING WHICH WILL LIMIT OUR THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT AFTER SUNSET. THUS, THINK THERE COULD BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS, BUT THE PROBABILITY OF ANY
SEVERE STORMS IS LOW. OTHERWISE ANOTHER WARM DAY, WITH HIGHS
REACHING THE LOW TO MID 80S ONCE AGAIN.
SHORT TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1039 PM CDT WED APR 15 2026
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TOMORROW, CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODELS
SUGGEST THAT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY
OF A TRAILING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY (EXTENDING FROM WESTERN AR INTO
SOUTHERN MO). AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT STRENGTHENS WITH THE APPROACH
OF AN AMPLIFYING MID-LEVEL WAVE, THIS ACTIVITY MAY TEND TO EVOLVE
INTO A SMALL BUT SOMEWHAT ORGANIZED CLUSTER OF STORMS AS IT
SPREADS SOUTHEASTWARD LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON/EARLY TOMORROW
EVENING, BEFORE GRADUALLY DISSIPATING LATER TOMORROW EVENING AS IT
BECOMES DISPLACED FROM THE INITIATING TROUGH. ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM
SHOULD BE WEAKENING AS IT TRACKS ACROSS OUR CWFA, A SECOND ROUND
OF RAIN AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR EARLY TOMORROW EVENING,
ACCOMPANIED BY A RISK FOR LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS (ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NORTHWEST AL). OTHERWISE, PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
LOCATIONS THAT ARE FORTUNATE ENOUGH TO RECEIVE MEASURABLE RAINFALL
AS TEMPS DROP INTO THE U50S-L60S.
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL RESUME ON FRIDAY AS A SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPS NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD (FROM EASTERN NE INTO WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR) IN RESPONSE TO AN INTENSIFYING TROUGH TRACKING EASTWARD
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS. WITH A
DEVELOPING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IN THE MID-LEVELS EXPECTED TO
RESULT IN MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY,
AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL RETURN TO THE M-U 80S, WHICH MAY FALL JUST
SHY OF RECORD HIGHS FOR THE DAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE
L-M 60S SATURDAY MORNING.
LATEST SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTS THAT RAPID
INTENSIFICATION OF THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL SUPPORT STEADY
DEEPENING OF THE RELATED SURFACE LOW AS IT TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS EASTERN OT AND INTO NORTHERN QC BY 12Z SUNDAY. AS THIS
OCCURS, A COLD FRONT WILL SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD, LIKELY REACHING
NORTHWESTERN AL LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EXITING OUR FORECAST
AREA BY MIDNIGHT. AFTER DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE DURING THE MORNING
HOURS ON SATURDAY, THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP ALONG
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE COLD FRONT SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZES AND A LINGERING LAYER OF STABLE AIR
ALOFT BEGINS TO ERODE WITH THE APPROACH OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH.
WITH MID-LEVEL WSW FLOW PREDICTED TO INCREASE INTO THE 50-60 KNOT
RANGE SATURDAY EVENING, DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO
SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORM CLUSTERS, CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL
AND STRONG WIND GUSTS. HOWEVER, THIS WILL LIKELY BE MORE OF A
CONCERN ACROSS NORTHWEST AL WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE MAXIMIZED
AROUND THE TIME OF FRONTAL PASSAGE. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, A
2-4 HOUR WINDOW OF LIGHT RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED, AS WINDS VEER TO
THE NORTH AND BEGIN TO ADVECT A COOLER CONTINENTAL AIRMASS INTO
THE REGION.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1039 PM CDT WED APR 15 2026
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE SWINGING FROM THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEYS OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH MONDAY.
RIDGING TRIES TO BUILD IN THE WAKE OF THIS THROUGH MIDWEEK, BUT A
FEW SHORTWAVE RIPPLES ARE SHOWN TO DIVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE
MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY DURING THIS TIME. AT THE SURFACE, A
COLD FRONT WILL HAVE PASSED TO OUR SOUTHEAST BY SUNDAY MORNING,
WITH HIGH PRESSURE FROM WESTERN CANADA AND THE NORTHWEST CONUS
PUSHING INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. THIS FEATURE WILL LARGELY
MAINTAIN ITS HOLD ON THE EASTERN CONUS UNTIL IT IS SHUNTED
EASTWARD THROUGH MIDWEEK BY A SYSTEM SWEEPING OVER CANADA.
FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR THE LOCAL AREA, THERE MAY BE SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING FROM THE SYSTEM THAT IS
SLATED TO MOVE THROUGH ON SATURDAY (DISCUSSED ABOVE), BUT MUCH OF
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO BE DRY. ALTHOUGH, WE WILL NEED TO
KEEP AN EYE ON WEDNESDAY, AS SOME GUIDANCE HINTS AT THE POTENTIAL
(ALBEIT LOW PROBABILITY) FOR THE AFORMENTIONED UPPER SHORTWAVES TO
BRING SOME RAIN TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT
THIS POINT DUE TO MODEL DISCREPANCIES, BUT STAY TUNED!
DON'T PACK THOSE JACKETS AWAY FOR THE SEASON JUST YET, SINCE IT
WILL BE FAIRLY COOL TO START THE WEEK. COLD AIR ADVECTION FROM THE
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST CONUS AND WESTERN
CANADA WILL RESULT IN HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE 60S SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND FORECAST LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S SUNDAY
NIGHT! MONDAY WILL BE PLEASANT WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S WITH
LOWS IN THE 40S THAT NIGHT. FORTUNATELY OR UNFORTUNATELY
(DEPENDING ON IF YOU LIKE OR DISLIKE COOLER WEATHER), TEMPERATURES
WILL THEN BEGIN TO MODERATE ONCE AGAIN THROUGH MIDWEEK. EXPECT
HIGHS TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES BY
WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1234 AM CDT THU APR 16 2026
WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON OUT SW/WSW
BETWEEN 10-15 KTS BEFORE WEAKENING AFTER SUNSET. A WEAK FRONT
WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST, BRINGING SOME -SHRA
DURING THE LATE MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON AND HAVE ADDED A
PROB30 HIGHLIGHT THIS. OVERALL, VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE
PREDOMINANT FLIGHT CATEGORY AT EACH TERMINAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...AMP.24
SHORT TERM....70
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...AMP
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