637
FXUS64 KHUN 110747
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
247 AM CDT WED MAR 11 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 247 AM CDT WED MAR 11 2026
- STRONG-SEVERE STORMS MAY IMPACT THE REGION FROM MID-AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS, SOME HAIL
AND PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO ARE THE MAIN THREATS.
- A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING MEDIUM-HIGH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
- A HARD FREEZE IS LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING, WITH LOWS
IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 247 AM CDT WED MAR 11 2026
BOTTOM LINE UP FRONT:
STAY WEATHER AWARE TODAY DUE TO EXPECTED SEVERE WEATHER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND TONIGHT'S FLOODING CONCERNS.
WILL HAVE A COUPLE OF SHOWERS, MAYBE A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO, BRUSH
THOSE NORTH OF THE TN RIVER EARLY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE,
OVERCAST HIGH CLOUD COVER WILL HAVE A MID LEVEL STRATUS DECK JOIN
IN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS STRATUS DECK SEEMS LIKE IT COULD
PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
THE DOMINANT SFC LOW WILL BE UP IN THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WITH A
COLD FRONT THAT TRAILS THROUGH THE OH VALLEY, AND INTO LOWER MS
VALLEY. A SECONDARY SFC LOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE RED RIVER VALLEY
OF OK/TX. STORMS WILL START TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING ALONG THAT
COLD FRONT AND BECOME A LINE OF STORMS AS IT PROGRESSES EASTWARD.
WE WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR ANY DEVELOPMENT OUT AHEAD OF THE LINE,
OTHERWISE THE LINE WILL MOVE INTO NW AL BY 19-21Z, AND EXIT OUR
SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES AROUND 01-03Z.
WHEN EXACTLY THE MORNING STRATUS WILL ERODE WILL HAVE AN EFFECT
ON OUR INSTABILITY, BUT THE BREEZY SFC WINDS AND STOUT MID LEVEL
WINDS WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF WAA AND HELP AFTERNOON TEMPS REACH
THE UNSEASONABLY WARM UPPER 70S. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND ENSEMBLES
SUGGEST WE HAVE A MEDIUM TO HIGH PROBABILITY OF SEEING ~1,000
J/KG OF SFC CAPE THIS AFTERNOON, BUT HAVE WEAK LAPSE RATES ALOFT.
SHEAR WILL IMPROVE AS WE HEAD INTO THIS AFTERNOON TO ~30KTS 0-3KM
AND ~60KTS 0-6KM. THIS WILL ALL GIVE WAY TO SUPPORTING A RISK OF
STRONG TO LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS (50-60 MPH) AND SOME MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL. THERE IS ALSO A RISK OF A TORNADO. SPC KEPT THE
ENTIRE TN VALLEY IN A 2% TORNADO OUTLOOK, BUT EXPANDED THEIR CIG1
HATCHED AREA FARTHER EAST WITH THE LATEST UPDATE, NOW ALONG AND
WEST OF A LINE FROM FAR WESTERN LINCOLN CO TN, TO HUNTSVILLE AND
DOWN TO DOUGLASS (MARSHALL CO).
WANT TO ALSO BRING TO YOUR ATTENTION THAT AS WE FOCUS ON THE
SEVERE THREAT DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS, THERE IS A
FLOODING RISK FOR TONIGHT. YOU CAN READ MORE ABOUT THAT IN THE
SHORT TERM BELOW.
SHORT TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1013 PM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
IN THE WAKE OF A BROKEN BAND OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS (WHICH
SHOULD BE EXITING OUR REGION BY 1-3Z THURSDAY), BROAD SCALE ASCENT
WILL INCREASE AS A SHARP COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHEASTWARD AT THE
SURFACE WHILE A LOWER-LATITUDE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ADVANCES
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE GULF COAST STATES. THIS SETUP WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD LIGHT-MODERATE STRATIFORM RAIN THAT
SHOULD END IN OUR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER 12Z
THURSDAY. WITH MOST LOCATIONS PREDICTED TO RECEIVE AN ADDITIONAL
0.75-1" OF RAINFALL, WE WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORING THE POTENTIAL
FOR A QUICK TRANSITION TO AREAL FLOODING (FROM SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS) DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.
SKIES WILL CLEAR QUICKLY LATE THURSDAY MORNING AS MODERATELY
STRONG NORTH FLOW ADVECTS A COOLER/DRIER AIRMASS INTO THE REGION.
ALTHOUGH THE AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO BE PREDOMINATELY OF NORTH
PACIFIC ORIGIN, THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT SOME MODIFIED CANADIAN
AIR WILL COME INTO PLAY, AND HIGHS ON THURSDAY SHOULD ONLY REACH
THE M-U 50S (FOLLOWING MORNING LOWS IN THE U30S-L40S). LIGHT WINDS
AND CLEAR SKIES THURSDAY EVENING WILL SUPPORT A QUICK DROP IN
TEMPERATURES (INTO THE L-M 30S), BUT WINDS MAY BEGIN TO INCREASE
FROM THE SOUTH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AS A DEEPENING AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY. THUS, THE OVERALL RISK
FOR FROST DEVELOPMENT IS QUITE UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT. LOW-LEVEL
FLOW WILL VEER TO SW ON FRIDAY AS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT
(ATTACHED TO THE LOW TO OUR NORTH) DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD BEFORE
STALLING NEAR THE TN-KY BORDER FRIDAY NIGHT. THUS, WE EXPECT HIGHS
TO RETURN TO THE M-U 60S FRIDAY, FOLLOWED BY LOWS IN THE L-M 40S
FRIDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1013 PM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
AFTER A COOLER MORNING IN THE 40S, SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL TAKE HOLD
ON SATURDAY ALLOWING FOR A SIGNIFICANT WARM UP OVER THE WEEKEND.
8H TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE 11-13C RANGE. THIS WILL YIELD HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S SATURDAY, AND MIDDLE TO
UPPER 70S ON SUNDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT ARRIVES SUNDAY NIGHT AS A
POWERFUL UPPER LOW ROTATES THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES,
SWINGING A TROUGH THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND LOWER MS VALLEYS. MEDIUM
TO HIGH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RESULT SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. VERY STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION ARRIVES LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WHICH COULD BRING A FEW FLURRIES
MIXING IN WITH ANY REMAINING SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S FOR MOST
AREAS ON MONDAY! AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING SLIDES SOUTH ALONG THE
MS RIVER VALLEY, THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE OF A HARD FREEZE BY
TUESDAY MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1101 PM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
THERE HAVE BEEN NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS AVIATION FORECAST
REASONING, AS VFR CONDS WILL QUICKLY TRANSITION TO MVFR BY 9Z AS A
LOW STRATUS LAYER REDEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION (PERHAPS LASTING
THRU 18Z). AFTER A TEMPORARY RETURN TO VFR AS MORNING STRATUS
DISSIPATES, FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO A NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS
THAT WILL DEVELOP TO OUR NORTHWEST AND PROGRESS SOUTHEASTWARD IN
CONJUNCTION WITH A SFC TROUGH. OUR BEST GUESS ON TIMING OF IMPACTS
FROM TSRA IS CURRENTLY 19-23Z/MSL AND 21-1Z/HSV, ALTHOUGH THIS
WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED IN FUTURE UPDATES. LIGHT RAIN AND
MVFR STRATUS CLOUDS (BASED BTWN 1500-2500 FT) WILL RETURN IN THE
WAKE OF THE CONVECTIVE LINE AND PERSIST THRU THE END OF THE
PERIOD. SFC WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SSW (BEFORE VEERING TO W
TOMORROW EVENING), WITH SPEEDS OF 5-10 KTS OVERNIGHT INCREASING TO
10G18 KTS TOMORROW AFTN.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...JMS
SHORT TERM....70
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...70
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