503
FXUS64 KMRX 291122
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
722 AM EDT TUE SEP 29 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 636 AM EDT TUE SEP 29 2026
- A NOTABLE WARM UP BEGINS TODAY AND CONTINUES THROUGH THURSDAY,
WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S BY WED AND
THU ACROSS LOW ELEVATION AREAS.
- LOW RAIN CHANCES START TO CREEP IN BY FRIDAY BUT SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY HAVE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 122 AM EDT TUE SEP 29 2026
IN THE UPPER LEVELS, A RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO
RIVER VALLEYS. A TROUGH REMAINS OVER NEW ENGLAND. A CLOSED LOW
OVER THE SOUTHWEST IS DRIFTING EASTWARD VERY SLOWLY. AT THE
SURFACE, WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED NEAR THE CAROLINAS.
RIDGING AND HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BRING DRY, SUNNY
WEATHER ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 80S FOR
THE REST OF THE WORKWEEK (AROUND 90 DEGREES NEAR CHATTANOOGA).
BY FRIDAY, A RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED NEAR FL/GA/SC AS A TROUGH DIPS
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THE POSITION OF THE RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH TO
THE SOUTHEAST WILL SUPPLY DEEP LAYER MOISTURE FROM THE GULF INTO THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY. RAIN CHANCES START TO INCREASE ON FRIDAY BUT
HIGHER CHANCES ARE LIKELY ON SATURDAY AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT
MOVES INTO THE REGION. THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY LINGER OVER THE
REGION THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE A SHORTWAVE FINALLY PUSHES IT THROUGH
LATE SUNDAY. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL. RAIN
TOTALS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND. FLOODING
POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY BE LOW AS DRY AS IT HAS BEEN BUT SOME MINOR
ISSUES CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
ON MONDAY, RAIN CHANCES WILL LIKELY TAPER OFF AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
OUT AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH. HIGHS WILL BE COOLER
IN THE 70S FOR MONDAY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 636 AM EDT TUE SEP 29 2026
IT WILL BE A MOSTLY PERSISTENCE FORECAST. BRIEF FOG TO START AT
TRI, AND FOG LOOKS LIKELY AGAIN AT THE END OF THE PERIOD.
OTHERWISE, WILL HAVE A VFR FORECAST ALL SITES. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE LIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 86 57 90 62 / 0 0 0 0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 84 56 87 59 / 0 0 0 0
OAK RIDGE, TN 83 55 85 59 / 0 0 0 0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 79 54 83 56 / 0 0 0 0
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MCD
AVIATION...99
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