632
FXUS64 KMRX 251750
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
150 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 148 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2026
- RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL IMPROVE THURSDAY HELPING TO LOWER FIRE
CONCERNS.
- LIGHT RAIN RETURNS LATE FRIDAY, GENERALLY FOR LOCATIONS ALONG
AND NORTH OF I-40.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 148 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2026
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY A SIGNIFICANT
TRANSITION FROM ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH TO A MORE ACTIVE, COOLER PATTERN
OVER THE WEEKEND. IT WILL WARM UP TO ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES
AGAIN THROUGH MIDWEEK.
CURRENTLY, A POTENT 500MB RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS, WHERE IT'S DRIVING HIGH TEMPERATURES 20–30 DEGREES ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMS. THIS RIDGE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH
H5 HEIGHTS RISING ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SUPPORTING SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AS HIGH AS 84 DEGREES.
IN THE LOW LEVELS, A PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CAROLINAS
IS MAINTAINING DRY CONDITIONS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY (20–30%)
OVER THE APPALACHIANS, THOUGH A STRENGTHENING WESTERLY LLJ WILL
BEGIN TO TRANSPORT MODEST MOISTURE AHEAD OF A TRAILING SHORTWAVE BY
LATE THURSDAY.
BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY, THE SYNOPTIC SETUP SHIFTS AS A
SURFACE COLD FRONT—DRIVEN BY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW TRACKING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER—DIGS INTO THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS. SOUNDING
DATA AND MODEL ENSEMBLES SUGGEST A WEAKENING TREND FOR THIS SYSTEM
AS IT MOVES SOUTH, DUE TO A LOSS OF UPPER-LEVEL DYNAMICS AND LIMITED
GULF MOISTURE RETURN. HOWEVER, SOUNDINGS INDICATE ENOUGH BOUNDARY
LAYER INSTABILITY FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS, PARTICULARLY FOR AREAS
NORTH OF I-40. POST-FRONTAL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING A SURGE OF
COOLER, CANADIAN AIR AND BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND, WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING SIGNIFICANTLY TO RESTORE MORE SEASONAL
CONDITIONS BY SUNDAY.
THE PRIMARY IMPACTS FOR THE PERIOD CENTER ON FIRE WEATHER AND
TEMPERATURE FLUCTUATIONS. BEFORE THE FRIDAY FRONTAL PASSAGE, THE
COMBINATION OF RECORD HEAT AND LOW AFTERNOON HUMIDITY (BELOW 30%)
WILL CREATE A WINDOW OF INCREASED FIRE DANGER, PARTICULARLY IN THE
SOUTHERN TENNESSEE VALLEY AND NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS WHERE DROUGHT
CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN PERSISTENT. FOLLOWING THE FRONT, A SECOND
IMPACT WILL BE THE ENHANCED POST-FRONTAL WINDS, WITH GUSTS OF 20–30
MPH POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SMOKY MOUNTAINS AND
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA ON SATURDAY. ENSEMBLE QPF MEANS ARE GENERALLY
UNDER 0.10 INCHES FOR MOST OF THE REGION. A RETURN TO NEAR-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE
LOSES ITS INFLUENCE.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 148 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2026
VFR TAFS THOUGH THERE'S A LOW PROBABILITY FOR MVFR CONDITIONS
TOMORROW MORNING, BUT FOR NOW KEPT IT AS A SCT DECK. DRY WEATHER TO
CONTINUE. LATE IN THE PERIOD, STRENGTHENING FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW
FOR STRONGER SW FLOW, WITH GUSTS AT TYS TO NEAR 20 TO 25 KNOTS
BEGINNING AROUND THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 55 82 60 84 / 0 0 0 20
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 53 80 62 79 / 0 0 0 60
OAK RIDGE, TN 53 80 60 79 / 0 0 0 70
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 48 76 58 74 / 0 10 0 80
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...99
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