032
FXUS64 KMRX 261839
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
239 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 236 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2026
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS MAINLY FOR THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
MOUNTAINS, AND THE SOUTHERN PLATEAU AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST
TENNESSEE FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
- HIGHEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AREA-WIDE AND MAINLY FAR EAST TENNESSEE MOUNTAINS AND
SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA FOR FRIDAY.
- MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE DRY FOR THE WEEKEND WITH RETURN OF HOT
AND MUGGY CONDITIONS RETURNING EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 236 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2026
CURRENTLY, A MCV IS MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHWEST TENNESSEE INTO
TOWARD THE SOUTHERN PLATEAU BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. AIRMASS IS
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLATEAU AND SOUTHEAST
TENNESSEE. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDER TO MOVE INTO THIS
REGION BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. MAIN
CONCERN IS WINDY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WITH
GUSTS UP TO 30-35 MPH.
OTHERWISE, SATELLITE SHOWS SOME CI DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE FAR EAST
TENNESSEE MOUNTAINS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
THERE THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
FOR TONIGHT, MAINLY DRY WITH A GOOD DEAL OF HIGH AND SOME MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS EARLY THEN CLEARING. SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED
ESPECIALLY NEAR AREA-WATERWAYS.
FOR FRIDAY, A WEAK SHORT-WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION WITH
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE INCREASES OVER
THE AREA WITH MLCAPES OF 1500-2000. DCAPE OF 700-900 NOTED WITH MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 6 TO 6.5 DEGREES. SHEAR IS ALMOST NON EXISTENT.
ENOUGH MID-LEVEL DRY AIR TO SUPPORT STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS WITH THE
STRONGER STORMS.
FOR SATURDAY, AN INVERTED TROUGH AXIS IS OVER THE EASTERN SECTIONS
OF TENNESSEE WITH CONVERGENCE AND UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE FAR EAST
TENNESSEE MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA. AFTERNOON
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED THERE, OTHERWISE DRY.
FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, UPPER RIDGE MOVES EAST INTO THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. RISING HEIGHTS AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE WILL
ONCE AGAIN PRODUCE MAINLY DRY WITH HOT AND MUGGY CONDITIONS. HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S ARE ANTICIPATED WITH HEAT INDICES ACROSS
MUCH OF THE VALLEY INCREASING TO 100-105 DEGREES. SOME ISOLATED
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OROGRAPHIC FEATURES BUT THE MAIN
STORY WILL BE THE RETURN OF THE HEAT.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 140 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2026
AN AREA OF CONVECTION WILL MOVE ACROSS CHA BETWEEN 21-23Z.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDER IS EXPECTED WITH WIND GUSTS
UP TO 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE.
MVFR/IFR FOG IS POSSIBLE AT TRI OTHERWISE PLENTY OF HIGH AND MID-
LEVEL CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. FOR THURSDSAY, AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 71 94 70 92 / 20 40 20 10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 69 91 68 89 / 0 30 50 10
OAK RIDGE, TN 68 90 67 89 / 10 40 50 10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 65 87 65 86 / 0 30 40 20
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DH
AVIATION...DH
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