154
FXUS64 KMRX 010511
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
111 AM EDT SUN JUN 1 2025
..NEW AVIATION
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 917 PM EDT SAT MAY 31 2025
WEAKLY ROTATING SHOWERS ARE TRAVERSING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
TENNESSEE AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA RIGHT NOW.
FLASHES OF LIGHTNING HAVE BEEN RATHER RARE, WITH SHALLOW STORM
TOPS LIMITING ICE CRYSTALS. GUIDANCE INDICATES THESE SHOWERS
SHOULD WIND DOWN AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES, WITH MAYBE AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OVERNIGHT, PRIMARILY IN THE SAME CORRIDOR OVER NORTHEASTERN
TENNESSEE. UPDATED THE GRIDS TO BRING MOST SITES BACK INTO
ALIGNMENT WITH THE FORECAST TREND GIVEN LIGHT RAINFALL THIS
EVENING AND CURRENT RADAR DEPICTION.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 PM EDT SAT MAY 17 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
1. DRY AND MILD TONIGHT.
2. A FEW SHOWERS OR POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM SOUTH SUNDAY, BUT MOST
AREAS WILL BE DRY.
DISCUSSION:
GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL SUBSIDE EARLY THIS EVENING. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR ALOFT WILL START OUR NIGHT OUT MOSTLY
CLEAR AND DRY. WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH QUASI-ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN HIGH/MID CLOUDS TO THE AREA
MAINLY SOUTH TONIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE JUST A BIT ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMALS.
AS THE WEAK IMPULSE MOVES BY SUNDAY, THERE MAY BE ENOUGH WEAK
FORCING AND MOISTURE TO SQUEEZE OUT A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING SOUTH, AND MODELS INDICATE MODEST INSTABILITY
DEVELOPING BY AFTERNOON (HREF MEAN MUCAPE VALUES GENERALLY REACH 500-
1000 J/KG ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTH), SO A FEW MORE VIGOROUS SHOWERS
AND PERHAPS EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP SOUTH DURING THE
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS OUR AREA WILL REMAIN DRY
SUNDAY.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 PM EDT SAT MAY 17 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
1. DRY WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE WORK-WEEK WITH INCREASING
TEMPERATURES.
2. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION:
IF YOU CAN BELIEVE IT, DRY WEATHER WILL DOMINATE MUCH OF THE WORK-
WEEK OR FIRST WEEK OF JUNE. A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SITUATE
OVER OUR PART OF THE COUNTRY WITH AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE EXTENDING INTO
MIDDLE CANADA (LATITUDE-WISE). SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL FORM AND
STRENGTHEN OVER THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY. IT WILL SLOWLY SLIDE
EAST TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WHERE IT WILL CENTER OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC. IN RESPONSE, SWLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP WHICH WILL AID THE
RISE IN HUMIDITY AS WELL AS AFTERNOON HIGHS. SO FAR, VALLEY
LOCATIONS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S WITH
DEW POINTS ATTEMPTING TO SURGE ABOVE THE MID 60S. IT DOESN'T APPEAR
IT'LL APPROACH RECORD BREAKING TERRITORY THOUGH, BEING THAT EVERY
SITE'S DAILY RECORD HIGH FOR THAT TIME PERIOD RANGES IN THE 90S.
ALAS, IT LINES UP WELL WITH METEOROLOGICAL SUMMER STARTING JUNE 1ST.
BEYOND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, THE RIDGE BECOMES SUPPRESSED BY LONG-
WAVE TROUGHING. RIPPLES IN THE FLOW EVENTUALLY BRING A POTENTIAL
FRONT TO THE REGION, THUS THE RETURN OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
NO REAL RELIEF AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, BESIDES
TEMPERATURES DROPPING A COUPLE OF DEGREES, BUT RETAINING HIGHS IN
THE 80S. AND DEW POINTS REMAIN ELEVATED.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 104 AM EDT SUN JUN 1 2025
A FEW SHOWERS AROUND AT TRI MAY IMPACT THE TERMINAL EARLY IN THE
PERIOD, WITH MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. FOG LOOKS LIKELY TO
DEVELOP THERE LATER TONIGHT AS WELL, AND WILL INCLUDE MVFR VSBY
THERE FOR A FEW HOURS (LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BUT LESS
LIKELY). THE BEST CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR STORM TODAY WILL BE AT
TYS AND WILL INCLUDE A PROB30 THUNDER GROUP THERE WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS. CHA AND TRI MAY SEE A SHOWER OR STORM, ALTHOUGH
PROBABILITY BOTH LOCATIONS LOOKS LOW. WILL HAVE CHA VFR FOR THE
ENTIRE PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 82 61 83 60 / 30 10 0 0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 78 55 79 56 / 60 20 0 0
OAK RIDGE, TN 78 54 80 55 / 60 10 0 0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 74 48 78 52 / 40 10 0 0
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SHORT TERM...WELLINGTON
LONG TERM....KS
AVIATION...
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