198
FXUS64 KMRX 181124
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
624 AM EST TUE NOV 18 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1258 AM EST TUE NOV 18 2025
- LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AGAIN TODAY WITH INCREASING WINDS. THIS
WILL LEAD TO ENHANCED FIRE DANGER.
- WARMER WEATHER TO RETURN TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH
SIGNIFICANT WARM WEATHER KNOXVILLE AND SOUTH WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.
- LIGHT RAINFALL TUESDAY NIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN
THURSDAY, WITH ADDITIONAL RAIN LIKELY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1258 AM EST TUE NOV 18 2025
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE TODAY AND THE FLOW WILL TURN MORE
SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE. HOWEVER,
MOISTURE WILL BE SLOW TO INCREASE AND IT WILL BE QUITE WARM THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER DAY OF LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES ACROSS THE REGION. THE LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND
UPTICK IN WINDS WILL BRING ANOTHER DAY OF ENHANCED FIRE DANGER
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.
RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AS THE SHORT WAVE MOVES
ACROSS. THERE WILL BE MORE PRECIPITATION NORTH THAN SOUTH, BUT
OVERALL AMOUNTS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE WITH MOST AREAS EXPECTED
TO SEE LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH EVEN ACROSS THE NORTH.
SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME LIMITED ELEVATED INSTABILITY, SO A FEW RUMBLES
OF THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS WELL. MODELS SHOW NO STRONG DRYING
FOR WEDNESDAY, SO A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER ALONG WITH QUITE A BIT OF
CLOUD COVER. DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER, IT WILL BE QUITE WARM
WEDNESDAY AS UPPER RIDGING WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTH AND
WEST, AND THESE ABNORMALLY HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO
FRIDAY. HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON BOTH
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, AND THE DAILY RECORD HIGH AT CHA MAY BE
THREATENED BOTH DAYS (CURRENT RECORDS AT CHA: 11-19 77(1985), 11-20
78(1942)).
FOR THURSDAY AND BEYOND, THE PATTERN BECOMES MORE ACTIVE AS A DEEP
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. AND ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND NORTHEAST U.S. MODELS HAVE BEEN ALL OVER
THE PLACE FOR THESE PERIODS AND UNCERTAINTY IS STILL HIGH ON THE
IMPACTS FOR OUR AREA. CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE TO HIGH THAT AT SOME
POINT ANOTHER SYSTEM, OR MULTIPLE SYSTEMS, WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA
BRINGING MORE RAIN. HOWEVER, THE DETAILS ARE STILL MURKY. AS OF
RIGHT NOW, THE BEST CHANCE APPEARS TO BE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
FOLLOWED BY SOME DRYING AND THEN AN UPTICK IN RAIN CHANCES AGAIN
TUESDAY AS ANOTHER WAVE APPROACHES. STAY TUNED.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 533 AM EST TUE NOV 18 2025
WILL SEE SOME RAIN SHOWERS MOVING TONIGHT WITH AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS, AND CIGS WILL LIKELY DROP TO LOW VFR/MVFR BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD WITH MVFR CONDITIONS THE MOST LIKELY AT TRI. WINDS AT
2KFT ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL BE INCREASING TONIGHT AS WELL, AND IT
LOOKS LIKE TRI WILL REACH LLWS CRITERIA FOR SEVERAL HOURS. AT TYS
AND CHA IT LOOKS BORDERLINE FOR LLWS, SO PLAN TO LEAVE IT OUT
THERE FOR NOW ALTHOUGH IT MAY NEED TO BE ADDED AS WE GET CLOSER. A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT ANY GIVEN SITE TONIGHT
AS WELL, BUT THE PROBABILITY LOOKS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT THIS
TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 72 58 77 55 / 0 40 10 10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 69 56 72 54 / 10 70 10 10
OAK RIDGE, TN 66 54 70 52 / 10 80 20 10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 64 48 64 51 / 10 80 20 10
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...99
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