980
FXUS64 KMRX 081700
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
100 PM EDT MON JUN 8 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 228 AM EDT MON JUN 8 2026
- VERY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES AND AN INCREASED RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING
IS EXPECTED TODAY, ESPECIALLY OVER EAST TENNESSEE AND POTENTIALLY
SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA.
- MEDIUM CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH
DAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK ESPECIALLY IN THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. A LOW RISK EXISTS FOR LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 228 AM EDT MON JUN 8 2026
STILL LOOKING LIKE TODAY WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY TIMEFRAME OF THE
WEEK FOR FLASH FLOODING, BUT IT IS BY NO MEANS A CERTAINTY TO SEE
FLOODING. THE PRESENCE OF NEAR RECORD PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES,
COMBINED WITH THE WEAK UPPER TROUGHING, SHOULD ALLOW FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CAMS HAVE BEEN PRETTY PERSISTENT IN
SHOWING THIS SCENARIO, EVEN IF THEIR DIRECT QPF OUTPUT ISN'T
NECESSARILY WORRYING. STILL THOUGH, WITH THE HIGHLY SATURATED
ENVIRONMENT, TALL SKINNY CAPE PROFILES, AND HIGH FREEZING LEVELS
WILL ALLOW FOR GENEROUS HYDROMETEOR PRODUCTION (FANCY TALK FOR LOTS
OF RAIN DROPS). WPC'S EXCESSIVE RAIN OUTLOOK HAS US IN A SLIGHT
RISK, WHICH SEEMS PRETTY REASONABLE GIVEN THE CAMS' PERSISTENT
SCATTERED NATURE. STORMS MAY BEGIN FIRING EARLY THIS MORNING AND
THEN CHANCES WILL REMAIN HIGH FOR MUCH OF THE DAY, BEFORE SUNSET
LIKELY BRINGS ABOUT WIDESPREAD DISSIPATION OF THE STORMS. SHEAR
VALUES ARE PRETTY LOW GIVEN THE OVERALL WEAK WIND PROFILES ABOVE US,
SO NOT EXPECTING SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE WEEK, WE'LL KEEP OUR MUGGY ATMOSPHERIC
PROFILES, BUT WE'LL GRADUALLY LOSE THE LITTLE FORCING WE HAVE AS
RIDGING BUILDS ALOFT. GUIDANCE STRUGGLES TO FIRE ANYTHING ON
THURSDAY, AND THAT MAY WELL BE THE LULL DAY OF THE WEEK IN TERMS OF
COVERAGE. THE OTHER DAYS ALL HAVE LOW TO MEDIUM HIGH CHANCES FOR AT
LEAST SOME SCATTERED ACTIVITY, THOUGH TERRAIN MAY BE WHAT FIRES
FIRST BEFORE THE VALLEY LATER INTO THE AFTERNOONS. GIVEN THE HIGH
MOISTURE CONTENT HANGING AROUND, A NON-ZERO FLOOD RISK WILL EXIST
FOR THE WEEK AS WELL. AS WE HIT THE WEEKEND WE'LL BE LOOKING FOR
SIGNS OF ANY UPPER SUPPORT FROM THE JET TO OUR NORTH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES OR ANY WEAK SHORTWAVES IN THE FLOW ALOFT TO HELP BRING RELIEF
OR A PAUSE IN THE JUNE WEATHER.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1257 PM EDT MON JUN 8 2026
WE WILL SEE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AROUND
EARLY IN THE PERIOD, THEN THEY WILL DIMINISH BEFORE CHANCES TREND
UPWARD AGAIN LATE IN PERIOD. HIGHEST CHANCES OVERALL LOOK TO BE AT
CHA AND TYS. WILL HAVE MAINLY VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE FORECAST,
ALTHOUGH THE DETAILS ARE UNCERTAIN AND IFR (OR LOWER) CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES AT LEAST BRIEFLY. WILL TRY TO TIME THE
PERIODS WITH THE HIGHER THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES WITH PROB30 AND
TEMPO GROUPS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 80 69 85 69 / 90 60 60 10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 81 68 84 69 / 90 40 60 40
OAK RIDGE, TN 80 68 83 68 / 90 40 60 40
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 87 67 83 66 / 70 40 70 60
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.
TN...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM EDT /8 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR ANDERSON-
BLEDSOE-BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-
COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-
HANCOCK-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MARION-MCMINN-
MEIGS-MORGAN-NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST BLOUNT-NORTHWEST CARTER-
NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-RHEA-
ROANE-SCOTT TN-SEQUATCHIE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST
CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-
UNION-WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...WELLINGTON
AVIATION...99
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