066
FXUS64 KMRX 080831
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
331 AM EST THU DEC 8 2022
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 304 AM EST THU DEC 8 2022
KEY MESSAGES:
1. DENSE FOG EARLY THIS MORNING.
2. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
DISCUSSION:
AREAS OF DENSE FOG CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA AND THE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY WILL BE ALLOWED TO CONTINUE AS IS. STILL EXPECT VISIBILITY
TO IMPROVE BY NO LATER THAN MID MORNING MOST AREAS. THE WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE
SHORT TERM, AND SOME WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL MOVE ACROSS
TODAY/EARLY TONIGHT. WILL SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS TODAY INTO
TONIGHT, AND QPF VALUES ARE GENERALLY AROUND A QUARTER TO THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AND
MINOR LOCALIZED FLOODING/PONDING CANNOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN THE
ALREADY WET GROUND, HOWEVER THE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL/FLOODING
LOOKS LOWER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW MINIMAL
CONVECTIVE ENERGY, BUT PERHAPS ENOUGH FOR RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER
IN A FEW SPOTS TODAY MAINLY SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. FOG LOOKS
LIKELY AGAIN TONIGHT GIVEN THE VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER, AND IT MAY
BECOME AT LEAST LOCALLY DENSE.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM EST THU DEC 8 2022
KEY MESSAGES:
1. MORE RAINFALL AND CLOUDY SKIES FRIDAY AND A CHANCE FOR MORE
SHOWERS INTO THE WEEKEND.
3. STRONG STORM SYSTEM EXPECTED TO BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS ALSO BY MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK. THREAT FOR SEVERE STILL TOO
EARLY TO DETERMINE.
DISCUSSION:
THE ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BE
PROGRESSING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY FRIDAY. CLOUDS AND RAIN
WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN WITH THIS FRONT. THE HEAVIER RAIN WILL BE
OVER THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS AND LIGHTER RAINFALL IN THE AFTERNOON.
FRIDAY NIGHT THE RAIN ENDS. SOME FOG MAY FORM BUT THE MAIN THING
WILL BE A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
BRINGS IN SOME DRIER AIR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING.
UNFORTUNATELY THE BREAK IN THE RAIN WILL BE BRIEF AS GFS, ECMWF AND
NAM MODEL ALL SHOW A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE IN WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN TENNESSEE VALLEY BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. LATER SUNDAY
AND CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
NORTH. ACTUAL CLEARING WITH THE DRYING WILL BRING SUNSHINE BACK TO
THE REGION AFTER A WEEK OF CLOUDS AND RAIN. AN UPPER LOW DEVELOPS
OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN STATES MONDAY. THIS STRONG SYSTEM WILL BEGIN
TO WIND UP OVER THE PLAINS AND MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TUESDAY. SKIES WILL STAY MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY TUESDAY BUT MOISTURE INCREASES AND A FEW SHOWERS WILL MOVE
INTO WESTERN SECTIONS LATE IN THE DAY. THIS STRONG SYSTEM WILL BRING
A FRONT EAST INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE SYSTEM
WILL BRING MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL INTO THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE BY LATE
WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT WILL LEAVE OUT FOR NOW SINCE IT IS
THE VERY END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AND CHANGES IN TIMING WITH NEW
MODEL RUNS WILL AFFECT THE TIMING OF STORMS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1227 AM EST THU DEC 8 2022
LIFR CONDITIONS IN DENSE FOG TO START, AND WHILE SOME AT LEAST
MARGINAL IMPROVEMENT CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY WILL STILL SEE
IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. IN
ADDITION, ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE IN DURING THE DAY.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 70 59 67 48 / 60 60 80 10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 64 58 63 47 / 90 60 90 20
OAK RIDGE, TN 62 57 63 46 / 90 60 80 10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 61 52 58 45 / 100 70 90 40
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.
TN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST /8 AM CST/ THIS MORNING FOR
ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-
CLAIBORNE-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-
HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-
MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-MORGAN-NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST BLOUNT-
NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST
MONROE-RHEA-ROANE-SCOTT TN-SEQUATCHIE-SEVIER SMOKY
MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST
MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.
VA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR LEE-RUSSELL-
SCOTT VA-WASHINGTON VA-WISE.
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM....TD
AVIATION...
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