646
FXUS64 KMRX 210549
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
149 AM EDT SAT MAR 21 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 140 AM EDT SAT MAR 21 2026
- MOST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY FOR THE REST OF TODAY AND
TONIGHT, OUTSIDE OF LOW-END RAIN CHANCES IN SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA LATE.
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE HAIL.
- WARM AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH RAIN RETURNING
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THEN, DRY AND SEASONALLY COOLER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL A WARMING TREND LATE IN THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 234 PM EDT FRI MAR 20 2026
CURRENTLY, A STRONG UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGHING TO OUR NORTHEAST. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
ALSO NEAR THE GREAT LAKES. THIS HAS PUT THE REGION IN A
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN ALOFT WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE
LOWER LEVELS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL TRACK IN SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING, LARGELY KEEPING THE
REGION DRY. ON SATURDAY, A VERY WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD
WITH THE NORTHERN FRONT MOVING SOUTHWARD. THIS WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING LIFT AND MOISTURE, SUFFICIENT FOR CONVECTION LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. WINDS ALOFT WILL BE ONLY AROUND 20 TO 25
KTS WITH LARGELY ELEVATED INSTABILITY OF 500 TO 1,000 J/KG AND MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER 6 C/KM. THIS WILL LEAD TO POTENTIAL FOR HAIL
WITHIN ANY STORMS, ESPECIALLY WITH WBZ HEIGHTS BELOW 10,000 FEET.
CAMS DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY ON HOW MUCH CONVECTION DEVELOPS, IF ANY.
BY SUNDAY, THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL AS TROUGHING LIFTS
TO THE NORTHEAST, FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER DEEPENING TROUGH TO THE
NORTHWEST. A SURFACE LOW WILL THEN TRACK TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST,
INCREASING LOW-LEVEL WINDS AND PULLING THE FRONT FURTHER SOUTH. THIS
WILL LEAD TO VERY WARM AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY BUT WITH RAIN
CHANCES NOT ARRIVING UNTIL LATE IN THE NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. WHILE WINDS WILL BE STRONGER, INSTABILITY IS INDICATED TO
BE NEARLY 0, KEEPING CHANCES FOR ACTUAL CONVECTION LIMITED. STILL,
THE STRONGER MSLP GRADIENT AND SYNOPTIC FLOW COULD LEAD TO GUSTY
WINDS.
DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY, THE FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED SOUTH OF THE
REGION WITH HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDING FROM THE NORTH. THIS WILL
PROMOTE DRIER AND SEASONALLY COOLER CONDITIONS, WHICH REMAIN
GENERALLY THE SAME INTO TUESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY, BROAD RIDGING WILL
EXPAND FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING EASTWARD,
LEADING TO A RETURN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW AND INCREASING MOISTURE AND
WAA. LOW-END RAIN CHANCES ARE INDICATED FOR WEDNESDAY AS THE REMNANT
FRONT IS PULLED BACK NORTHWARD, BUT THIS IS LIMITED OVERALL. LATE IN
THE WEEK, A STRONGER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND TRACK FAR TO
OUR NORTH. OVERALL, THE IMPACTS FOR OUR AREA LOOK LIMITED, BUT THE
QUESTION WILL BE WHEN AND IF ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT ARRIVES. THIS
COULD BRING SHOWERS AND STORMS BUT LIKELY NOT UNTIL LATER THURSDAY
OR FRIDAY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 140 AM EDT SAT MAR 21 2026
VFR CAN GENERALLY BE EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF ANY PRECIPITATION. CHA
LIKELY TO STAY DRY. LLWS KEPT AT TRI DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
POSSIBLE LEFTOVER PRECIPITATION FROM THE NORTH WILL REACH TRI
LATER THIS MORNING. PROB ADDED AT TYS FOR THE LATER AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS LATER TONIGHT. THE
NEAR-STORM ENVIRONMENT DOESN'T APPEAR THAT DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE
MUCH OF A THREAT, MAINLY HAIL.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 83 58 86 61 / 30 20 0 0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 79 58 84 59 / 30 20 0 10
OAK RIDGE, TN 80 56 84 58 / 30 20 0 20
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 73 53 80 55 / 20 10 0 30
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION...KS
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