087
FXUS64 KMRX 102314
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
714 PM EDT THU SEP 10 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 632 PM EDT THU SEP 10 2026
- A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS, AND PERHAPS A STORM OR TWO, REMAIN
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, MAINLY NORTH OF I-40.
- FRIDAY NOW LOOKS DRIER AS THE FRONT MAY WASH OUT TO OUR NORTH.
- SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE BEST DAY FOR SHOWER AND STORM COVERAGE.
THEN MORE ISOLATED AGAIN ON SUNDAY. SATURDAY, LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS THE MAIN THREAT DUE TO ELEVATED PW VALUES OF AROUND
2 INCHES.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. CHA
HAS HIT 90 AGAIN TODAY, WHICH IS DAY 38. THIS NOW TIES THE
RECORD FOR CONSECUTIVE DAYS AT OR ABOVE 90 DEG SET BACK IN 1993.
WITH DRIER CONDITIONS NOW EXPECTED FOR TOMORROW, THE
PROBABILITY THAT CHA BREAKS THE STREAK, WITH DAY 39, IS VERY
HIGH.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 233 PM EDT THU SEP 10 2026
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN MOSTLY TO OUR NORTH, CLOSER TO
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HOWEVER, SOME OF OUR NORTHERN MOST AREAS
MAY STILL SEE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST TO PUSH INTO
OUR AREA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. HOWEVER, IT NOW LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT
MAY STAY TO OUR NORTH. THIS MEANS FRIDAY WILL NOW BE DRIER WITH ONLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS, AND PERHAPS A FEW STORMS, IN PLACE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
PRECIP CHANCES DO INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THE BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL BE ON SATURDAY. A FEW STRONG STORMS AND WIND GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE, BUT THE MAIN THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL DUE TO ELEVATED PW VALUES UP AROUND 2 INCHES. WHILE
ISOLATED FLOODING POTENTIAL EXISTS, IT'S LOW. CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS/STORMS MAY PREVENT CHA FROM REACHING 90 AGAIN ON SATURDAY,
BUT IF THEY DO HIT 90 THE CONSECUTIVE STREAK WITH LIKELY CONTINUE
INTO NEXT WEEK.
PRECIP CHANCES LESSEN ON SUNDAY AS DRIER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE, THOUGH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN LOOKS TO BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA TO START THE
WEEK. THIS MEANS THE HEAT WILL REMAIN WITH NO MEANINGFUL RAIN
CHANCES. THOUGH THE EAST TN MOUNTAINS MAY STILL SEE SOME ISOLATED
DIURNAL ACTIVITY. BY MID-TO-LATE WEEK, A BROAD UPPER TROUGH AND
ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACH FROM THE NORTH. AS A RESULT, PRECIP
CHANCES INCREASE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME DUE TO MORE ZONAL FLOW AND
HOPEFULLY A FRONTAL PASSAGE.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 632 PM EDT THU SEP 10 2026
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE THAT PATCHY FOG COULD IMPACT THE TERMINAL
AT TRI LATE TONIGHT, BUT IT DOES NOT LOOK HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT
INCLUSION OF FOG AT THIS TIME. WILL HAVE A VFR FORECAST FOR THE
PERIOD ALL SITES. LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR STORM MAY BE AROUND LATE IN THE PERIOD, BUT THE PROBABILITY
OF IMPACTS AT ANY TERMINAL LOOKS TOO LOW FOR MENTION IN THE TAFS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 72 96 73 90 / 0 20 60 90
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 70 94 72 89 / 0 10 50 80
OAK RIDGE, TN 69 93 70 88 / 0 10 40 80
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 66 88 67 87 / 10 20 20 80
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...99
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