692  
FXUS64 KMRX 170546  
AFDMRX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN  
146 AM EDT FRI OCT 17 2025  
   
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION  
 
   
KEY MESSAGES  
 
UPDATED AT 144 AM EDT FRI OCT 17 2025  
 
- WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND SATURDAY AHEAD  
OF AN APPROACHING SYSTEM.  
 
- SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS ARE LIKELY  
ACROSS THE REGION. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS REMAINS LOW.  
ALSO, BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE  
MOUNTAINS.  
 
- DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS RETURN BY MONDAY, FOLLOWED BY  
ANOTHER SYSTEM AND RETURN IN RAIN CHANCES.  
 
 
   
DISCUSSION  
 
ISSUED AT 144 AM EDT FRI OCT 17 2025  
 
CURRENTLY EARLY THIS MORNING, RIDGING IS MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM  
THE WEST WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING TO OUR NORTHEAST. THIS  
HAS MADE FOR A COOL MORNING IN NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.  
DURING THE DAY, HOWEVER, RIDGING WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER THE  
REGION WITH THE SURFACE HIGH WEAKENING AS IT SHIFTS OFF TO OUR EAST.  
THE COMBINATION OF HEIGHT RISES AND A SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW  
WILL PROMOTE DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS FOR THE DAY. OVERNIGHT,  
THE FOCUS WILL TURN TOWARDS DEEPENING TROUGHING AND AN INCREASE IN  
THE UPPER JET INTO SATURDAY. CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED WITH A  
SURFACE LOW OF 1,000MB OR LESS MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND ITS  
COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD. TROUGHING WILL GRADUALLY  
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED WITH UPPER DIVERGENCE TO OUR NORTH  
HELPING TO STRENGTHEN 850MB WINDS AND BROAD SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS  
THE REGION AHEAD OF THE FRONT.  
 
FOR OUR AREA, THE TWO MAIN WEATHER IMPACTS WILL BE WINDS AND CHANCES  
FOR STORMS. CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH ON A STRONG MSLP GRADIENT  
ACROSS THE REGION, AS WELL AS 850MB FLOW OF 50 KTS OR MORE. HOWEVER,  
MODELS STILL DIFFER ON THE DIRECTION OF THE FLOW WITH THE NAM BEING  
ALMOST PARALLEL TO THE TERRAIN. THIS WOULD LIMIT MOUNTAIN WAVE  
POTENTIAL BUT STILL BE BREEZY AREA-WIDE. REGARDING STORM POTENTIAL,  
GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES IN THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA IN  
THE AFTERNOON WITH THE NAM 3KM AND FV3 SHOWING DECAYING CONVECTION  
TOWARDS SUNDAY MORNING. OVERALL PROBABILITIES OF INSTABILITY OVER 250  
J/KG ARE BELOW 50 PERCENT BUT GREATEST IN SOUTHERN AREAS. THESE  
PLACES WOULD BE THE MOST LIKELY TO SEE STORMS WITH ISOLATED DAMAGING  
WINDS POSSIBLE. BUT ULTIMATELY, THE MSLP GRADIENT AND A BROAD 850MB  
JET OF AROUND 50 KTS WOULD ALLOW FOR GUSTY WINDS ACROSS MANY PLACES.  
 
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL ALOFT WITH  
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING BEHIND THE FRONT, PROMOTING DRIER  
AND COOLER CONDITIONS. BY TUESDAY TO WEDNESDAY, ANOTHER, MORE  
PRONOUNCED TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. BUT WITH MUCH  
MORE LIMITED MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES. SOME SUGGEST THE COOLDOWN BY  
MID-WEEK COULD BE MORE SIGNIFICANT.  
 
 
   
AVIATION  
 
(06Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 144 AM EDT FRI OCT 17 2025  
 
OVERALL, QUIET AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH NO FOG  
ANTICIPATED. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AT  
AROUND 10 KTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CLOUD COVER WILL BE LIMITED TO  
MAINLY ABOVE 10,000 FEET.  
 
 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS  
 
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 81 59 83 64 / 0 0 10 70  
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 77 56 82 62 / 0 0 0 60  
OAK RIDGE, TN 76 55 81 61 / 0 10 10 70  
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 72 50 79 58 / 0 0 0 30  
 
 
   
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
NC...NONE.  
TN...NONE.  
VA...NONE.  
 
 
 
 
DISCUSSION...BW  
AVIATION...BW  
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