048
FXUS64 KMRX 241128
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
728 AM EDT TUE MAR 24 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 722 AM EDT TUE MAR 24 2026
- DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY, FOLLOWED BY A WARMING
TREND AND RETURNING LIGHT RAIN CHANCES LATE IN THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 254 AM EDT TUE MAR 24 2026
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CURRENTLY CONSISTS OF RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS AND TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN. AN H85 HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION AS A WEAK VORT MAX
SWINGS THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES OVER THE NEXT 12 OR SO
HOURS. HIGH CLOUDS WILL RETURN FOR THE AM, THOUGH, LOW RH THROUGHOUT
LOWER LEVELS WILL HINDER PRECIP AT THE SURFACE. CONTINUED SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES WITH CLEARING SKIES ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.
MILD TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AS THE
GENERAL SYNOPTIC PATTERN REMAINS FAIRLY PERSISTENT, WITH JUST MINOR
FLUCTUATIONS IN THE OVERALL AMPLITUDE OF THE TROUGH/RIDGE.
TEMPERATURES TREND WARMER AMONG H5 HEIGHT RISES DOWNSTREAM OF A PNW
SHORTWAVE THURSDAY. A SLIGHT UPTICK CAN ALSO BE NOTED IN WESTERLY
H85 FLOW THURSDAY. NBM PROMOTES A DRY FORECAST AT THIS TIME, BUT
CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT LOW CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN POTENTIALLY
MAKING WAY INTO FUTURE FORECASTS.
THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD FRIDAY,
EVENTUALLY PROMOTING A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND
INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION LATE FRIDAY. CURRENT TRENDS ARE FOR
THIS TO BE A WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE BEING SO FAR DISPLACED FROM THE
PARENT LOW WELL OFF THE NORTHEASTERN SEABOARD. DRIER AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONT ON SATURDAY, WHICH COULD POSE
HEIGHTENED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THOSE THAT DO NOT GET RAIN
FRIDAY NIGHT(SOUTHERN VALLEY). WARMING TREND EXPECTED LATE WEEKEND
INTO THE NEW WORK WEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 722 AM EDT TUE MAR 24 2026
NE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL TURN CALM BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE
LATER TODAY. VFR CAN BE EXPECTED WITH MID TO HIGH CLOUDS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 70 47 68 51 / 0 10 0 0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 65 43 70 51 / 0 10 0 0
OAK RIDGE, TN 66 43 68 51 / 0 10 0 0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 62 39 67 47 / 0 0 0 0
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KRS
AVIATION...KS
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