692
FXUS64 KMRX 170546
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
146 AM EDT FRI OCT 17 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 144 AM EDT FRI OCT 17 2025
- WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND SATURDAY AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING SYSTEM.
- SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS ARE LIKELY
ACROSS THE REGION. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS REMAINS LOW.
ALSO, BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS.
- DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS RETURN BY MONDAY, FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER SYSTEM AND RETURN IN RAIN CHANCES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 144 AM EDT FRI OCT 17 2025
CURRENTLY EARLY THIS MORNING, RIDGING IS MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM
THE WEST WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING TO OUR NORTHEAST. THIS
HAS MADE FOR A COOL MORNING IN NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
DURING THE DAY, HOWEVER, RIDGING WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER THE
REGION WITH THE SURFACE HIGH WEAKENING AS IT SHIFTS OFF TO OUR EAST.
THE COMBINATION OF HEIGHT RISES AND A SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
WILL PROMOTE DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS FOR THE DAY. OVERNIGHT,
THE FOCUS WILL TURN TOWARDS DEEPENING TROUGHING AND AN INCREASE IN
THE UPPER JET INTO SATURDAY. CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED WITH A
SURFACE LOW OF 1,000MB OR LESS MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND ITS
COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD. TROUGHING WILL GRADUALLY
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED WITH UPPER DIVERGENCE TO OUR NORTH
HELPING TO STRENGTHEN 850MB WINDS AND BROAD SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS
THE REGION AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
FOR OUR AREA, THE TWO MAIN WEATHER IMPACTS WILL BE WINDS AND CHANCES
FOR STORMS. CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH ON A STRONG MSLP GRADIENT
ACROSS THE REGION, AS WELL AS 850MB FLOW OF 50 KTS OR MORE. HOWEVER,
MODELS STILL DIFFER ON THE DIRECTION OF THE FLOW WITH THE NAM BEING
ALMOST PARALLEL TO THE TERRAIN. THIS WOULD LIMIT MOUNTAIN WAVE
POTENTIAL BUT STILL BE BREEZY AREA-WIDE. REGARDING STORM POTENTIAL,
GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES IN THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA IN
THE AFTERNOON WITH THE NAM 3KM AND FV3 SHOWING DECAYING CONVECTION
TOWARDS SUNDAY MORNING. OVERALL PROBABILITIES OF INSTABILITY OVER 250
J/KG ARE BELOW 50 PERCENT BUT GREATEST IN SOUTHERN AREAS. THESE
PLACES WOULD BE THE MOST LIKELY TO SEE STORMS WITH ISOLATED DAMAGING
WINDS POSSIBLE. BUT ULTIMATELY, THE MSLP GRADIENT AND A BROAD 850MB
JET OF AROUND 50 KTS WOULD ALLOW FOR GUSTY WINDS ACROSS MANY PLACES.
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL ALOFT WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING BEHIND THE FRONT, PROMOTING DRIER
AND COOLER CONDITIONS. BY TUESDAY TO WEDNESDAY, ANOTHER, MORE
PRONOUNCED TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. BUT WITH MUCH
MORE LIMITED MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES. SOME SUGGEST THE COOLDOWN BY
MID-WEEK COULD BE MORE SIGNIFICANT.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 144 AM EDT FRI OCT 17 2025
OVERALL, QUIET AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH NO FOG
ANTICIPATED. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AT
AROUND 10 KTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CLOUD COVER WILL BE LIMITED TO
MAINLY ABOVE 10,000 FEET.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 81 59 83 64 / 0 0 10 70
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 77 56 82 62 / 0 0 0 60
OAK RIDGE, TN 76 55 81 61 / 0 10 10 70
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 72 50 79 58 / 0 0 0 30
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION...BW
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