901
FXUS64 KMRX 032316
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
716 PM EDT THU JUL 3 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 130 PM EDT THU JUL 3 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
1. DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY.
2. SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BUT FAIRLY COMFORTABLE
HUMIDITY LEVELS.
DISCUSSION:
INDEPENDENCE DAY WILL HAVE NICE CONDITIONS FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITES AND
CELEBRATIONS. A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING ACROSS THE
REGION, WITH A NE FLOW THROUGH THE COLUMN. SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE
RIDGE WILL WARM TEMPERATURES MAINLY INTO THE LOWER 90S FOR MOST OF
THE TN VALLEY (POSSIBLY MID 90S AROUND CHA, UPPER 80S IN SW VA), BUT
HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE TOLERABLE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, WITH
DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE 60S IN THE AFTERNOON. SATURDAY LOOKS
MUCH THE SAME. AN ISOLATED SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT COMPLETELY IN
THE TN MOUNTAINS AND SW NC, BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS APPEAR VERY
STABLE AND DRY THROUGH THE MIDLEVELS AND UNFAVORABLE FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 130 PM EDT THU JUL 3 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
1. SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE EACH DAY THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
2. INCREASING HUMIDITY WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES APPROACHING 100 NEAR
CHATTANOOGA.
DISCUSSION:
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OF OUR AREA ON SUNDAY, WITH
WEAK TROUGHING NEAR THE MS VALLEY REGION. MEANWHILE, A TROPICAL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTYEM WILL BE DEVELOPING OFF THE GA COAST. THIS
PATTERN WILL BRING A RETURN OF WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW AND INCREASING
MOISTURE. AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE,
MAINLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS ON SUNDAY, AND EXPANDING INTO THE TN
VALLEY MONDAY (BUT STILL JUST LOW/SLIGHT CHANCES). WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 90S AND DWEPOINTS IN THE SOUTHERN TN VALLEY
RISING INTO THE LOWER 70S, SOME LOCATIONS NEAR CHA MAY APPROACH
100 DEGREE HEAT INDEX SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON TUESDAY,
POTENTIALLY LINGERING AROUND THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE
ATLANTIC RIDGE RETROGRADES INTO THE GULF COAST REGION, WITH A BROAD
TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND. THIS PATTERN, AND THE
LINGERING BOUNDARY, SHOULD GIVE US BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY MID WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 714 PM EDT THU JUL 3 2025
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES WITH LIGHT MAINLY NORTHERLY WINDS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 70 94 72 94 / 0 10 0 10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 67 93 70 93 / 0 10 0 10
OAK RIDGE, TN 67 93 69 94 / 0 0 0 10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 63 89 65 89 / 0 0 0 10
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SHORT TERM...DH
LONG TERM....DGS
AVIATION...DH
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