129
FXUS64 KMRX 121747
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1247 PM EST THU FEB 12 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1246 PM EST THU FEB 12 2026
- WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED TO END THE WEEKEND WITH OVER 1" OF RAIN
POSSIBLE FOR SOME.
- DRY AND WARMER NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1246 PM EST THU FEB 12 2026
LIGHT WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE
TODAY HELPING TO KEEP TEMPERATURES COOL BEHIND THE FRONT. TODAY WILL
LIKELY HAVE TO COLDEST HIGH TEMPERATURES OF THE WEEK WITH A SLIGHT
WARMING AHEAD OF OUR NEXT INCOMING SYSTEM. THAT SYSTEM WILL BE A
SURFACE LOW MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND
EVENTUALLY OFF THE EAST COAST INTO THE ATLANTIC.
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT WE WILL SEE RAIN MOVING IN SOMETIME
SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR SATURDAY EVENING, AND CONTINUING THROUGH
SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM ENOUGH THAT WE'LL SEE ALL
RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION, AND CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER ACROSS SOUTHEAST TENNESSEE WITH THE STEEPER LAPSE
RATES IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS. UNFORTUNATELY STORM TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS
ARE THE LEAST CONFIDENT PART OF THE FORECAST WITH THE SCATTERED
NATURE OF STORMS AND SOME UNCERTAINTY ON WHEN PRECIPITATION WILL
COME TO AN END ON SUNDAY. AT THIS POINT FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE WE'LL
SEE AT LEAST HALF AN INCH OF RAIN, BUT PROBABILISTIC MODEL DATA IS
MUCH MORE UP IN THE AIR ON WHO MIGHT SEE OVER 1 INCH OF RAINFALL.
A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CROSS THE GULF AND SOUTHEAST NEXT
WEEK, PROVIDING DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH
TEMPERATURE REMAINING WELL ABOVE FREEZING AND HIGHS IN THE 60/70'S
FOR MOST MONDAY AND BEYOND.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1246 PM EST THU FEB 12 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LIGHT WINDS AND
MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED TO BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 36 60 37 62 / 0 0 0 20
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 30 56 32 59 / 0 0 0 10
OAK RIDGE, TN 31 56 32 57 / 0 0 0 10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 24 50 27 57 / 0 0 0 0
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...99
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