154  
FXUS64 KMRX 231852  
AFDMRX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN  
252 PM EDT TUE APR 23 2024  
   
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
 
 
   
SHORT TERM
 
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 238 PM EDT TUE APR 23 2024  
 
KEY MESSAGES:  
 
1. THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE EAST TENNESSEE MOUNTAINS WILL SEE  
GUSTS UP TO 30 OR 35 MPH LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TOMORROW  
MORNING.  
 
2. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN  
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. ONLY LIGHT RAIN IS  
EXPECTED BEFORE BECOMING MOSTLY DRY FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  
 
DISCUSSION:  
 
BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AROUND SUNSET. THE HIGHER  
ELEVATIONS OF THE EAST TENNESSEE MOUNTAINS WILL SEE GUSTS UP TO 30  
OR 35 MPH LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING WHEN THE  
FRONT MOVES THROUGH.  
 
IN THE UPPER LEVELS, A TROUGH IS OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AND A  
RIDGE IS OVER THE ROCKIES. AT THE SURFACE, A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL  
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TOMORROW MORNING. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE  
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AS THE FRONT APPROACHES.  
THE FRONT IS DECAYING AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION, SO THE BEST  
RAIN CHANCES ARE NORTH OF I-40. RAIN WILL BE LIGHT AND QPF IS LOW,  
UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH. LIGHT RAIN AND CLOUDS WILL MOVE OUT OF  
THE REGION IN THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH  
AFTERNOON SUNSHINE, HIGHS WILL GET INTO THE LOWER 70S FOR MOST OF  
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TOMORROW.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM
 
 
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 238 PM EDT TUE APR 23 2024  
 
KEY MESSAGES:  
 
1. MOSTLY DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS FORECASTED INTO THE WEEKEND.  
 
2. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
 
DISCUSSION:  
 
GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR SEVERAL DAYS AS WE SIT  
UNDER UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE LEVEL RIDGING INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS  
WILL KEEP MOST OF THE SYNOPTIC LEVEL FORCING AND ASSOCIATED  
PRECIPITATION WELL OFF TO OUR WEST, AND MAINLY DRY AND SUNNY  
CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST.  
 
FRIDAY COULD SEE A QUICK ROUND OF SHOWERS AS A STRENGTHENING LOW  
LEVEL JET MOVES INTO THE REGION HELPING TO CREATE AN AREA OF  
ISENTROPIC LIFT AS A WEAK BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. THIS  
FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO BE PRETTY WEAK AND MODELS ARE STRUGGLING TO  
RESOLVE HOW MUCH COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WE CAN EXPECT. HOWEVER MOST  
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT WHATEVER OCCURS WOULD BE GENERALLY  
LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS DURING THE DAYTIME ON FRIDAY. WILL  
CONTINUE WITH THE LOWER END PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE END OF THE  
WORK WEEK.  
 
RIDGING RESTRENGTHENS OVER THE WEEKEND LEADING TO FAIRLY MILD  
TEMPERATURES. THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN LOOKS LIKE IT WILL FINALLY  
UNDERGO A CHANGE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE  
OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS DRIVEN BY A LOW LIFTING OUT THROUGH THE  
NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BRING  
ALONG WITH IT A MORE UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE AND WE SHOULD SEE THE  
RETURN OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION MONDAY AND/OR TUESDAY.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
(18Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 102 PM EDT TUE APR 23 2024  
 
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BE BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO  
20 TO 25 KNOTS LIKELY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION  
TONIGHT BRINGING LOW CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING  
HOURS. CIGS MAY GO MVFR BRIEFLY IN THE MORNING HOURS, OTHERWISE  
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. LIGHT RAIN WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE  
ESPECIALLY NEAR TRI. BY MID TO LATE MORNING THE COLD FRONT WILL  
MOVE THROUGH AND CLOUDS/RAIN WILL MOVE OUT OF THE REGION.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 54 76 50 77 / 10 10 0 10  
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 55 72 47 75 / 30 30 0 10  
OAK RIDGE, TN 54 74 47 76 / 40 30 0 10  
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 50 68 42 71 / 40 40 0 0  
 

 
   
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NC...NONE.  
TN...NONE.  
VA...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...MCD  
AVIATION...MCD  
 
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