066  
FXUS64 KMRX 080831  
AFDMRX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN  
331 AM EST THU DEC 8 2022  
   
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
 
 
   
SHORT TERM
 
 
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 304 AM EST THU DEC 8 2022  
 
KEY MESSAGES:  
 
1. DENSE FOG EARLY THIS MORNING.  
 
2. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS TODAY INTO TONIGHT.  
 
DISCUSSION:  
 
AREAS OF DENSE FOG CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA AND THE DENSE FOG  
ADVISORY WILL BE ALLOWED TO CONTINUE AS IS. STILL EXPECT VISIBILITY  
TO IMPROVE BY NO LATER THAN MID MORNING MOST AREAS. THE WEAK  
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE  
SHORT TERM, AND SOME WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL MOVE ACROSS  
TODAY/EARLY TONIGHT. WILL SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS TODAY INTO  
TONIGHT, AND QPF VALUES ARE GENERALLY AROUND A QUARTER TO THREE  
QUARTERS OF AN INCH. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AND  
MINOR LOCALIZED FLOODING/PONDING CANNOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN THE  
ALREADY WET GROUND, HOWEVER THE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL/FLOODING  
LOOKS LOWER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW MINIMAL  
CONVECTIVE ENERGY, BUT PERHAPS ENOUGH FOR RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER  
IN A FEW SPOTS TODAY MAINLY SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. FOG LOOKS  
LIKELY AGAIN TONIGHT GIVEN THE VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER, AND IT MAY  
BECOME AT LEAST LOCALLY DENSE.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM
 
 
(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 304 AM EST THU DEC 8 2022  
 
KEY MESSAGES:  
 
1. MORE RAINFALL AND CLOUDY SKIES FRIDAY AND A CHANCE FOR MORE  
SHOWERS INTO THE WEEKEND.  
 
3. STRONG STORM SYSTEM EXPECTED TO BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SOME  
THUNDERSTORMS ALSO BY MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK. THREAT FOR SEVERE STILL TOO  
EARLY TO DETERMINE.  
 
DISCUSSION:  
 
THE ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BE  
PROGRESSING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY FRIDAY. CLOUDS AND RAIN  
WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN WITH THIS FRONT. THE HEAVIER RAIN WILL BE  
OVER THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS AND LIGHTER RAINFALL IN THE AFTERNOON.  
FRIDAY NIGHT THE RAIN ENDS. SOME FOG MAY FORM BUT THE MAIN THING  
WILL BE A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE  
BRINGS IN SOME DRIER AIR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING.  
 
UNFORTUNATELY THE BREAK IN THE RAIN WILL BE BRIEF AS GFS, ECMWF AND  
NAM MODEL ALL SHOW A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE IN WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT  
MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN TENNESSEE VALLEY BY SATURDAY  
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. LATER SUNDAY  
AND CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE  
NORTH. ACTUAL CLEARING WITH THE DRYING WILL BRING SUNSHINE BACK TO  
THE REGION AFTER A WEEK OF CLOUDS AND RAIN. AN UPPER LOW DEVELOPS  
OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN STATES MONDAY. THIS STRONG SYSTEM WILL BEGIN  
TO WIND UP OVER THE PLAINS AND MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND  
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TUESDAY. SKIES WILL STAY MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY  
CLOUDY TUESDAY BUT MOISTURE INCREASES AND A FEW SHOWERS WILL MOVE  
INTO WESTERN SECTIONS LATE IN THE DAY. THIS STRONG SYSTEM WILL BRING  
A FRONT EAST INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE SYSTEM  
WILL BRING MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL INTO THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY  
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE BY LATE  
WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT WILL LEAVE OUT FOR NOW SINCE IT IS  
THE VERY END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AND CHANGES IN TIMING WITH NEW  
MODEL RUNS WILL AFFECT THE TIMING OF STORMS.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
(06Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 1227 AM EST THU DEC 8 2022  
 
LIFR CONDITIONS IN DENSE FOG TO START, AND WHILE SOME AT LEAST  
MARGINAL IMPROVEMENT CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY WILL STILL SEE  
IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. IN  
ADDITION, ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE IN DURING THE DAY.  
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 70 59 67 48 / 60 60 80 10  
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 64 58 63 47 / 90 60 90 20  
OAK RIDGE, TN 62 57 63 46 / 90 60 80 10  
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 61 52 58 45 / 100 70 90 40  
 

 
   
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.  
 
TN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST /8 AM CST/ THIS MORNING FOR  
ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-  
CLAIBORNE-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-  
HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-  
MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-MORGAN-NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST BLOUNT-  
NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST  
MONROE-RHEA-ROANE-SCOTT TN-SEQUATCHIE-SEVIER SMOKY  
MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST  
MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.  
 
VA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR LEE-RUSSELL-  
SCOTT VA-WASHINGTON VA-WISE.  
 

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...  
LONG TERM....TD  
AVIATION...  
 
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