273
FXUS64 KMRX 142323
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
623 PM EST SUN DEC 14 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 614 PM EST SUN DEC 14 2025
- VERY COLD CONDITIONS TODAY WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY.
- A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN TUESDAY WITH RAIN CHANCES RETURNING BY
THURSDAY.
- STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOME OF THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS AND FOOTHILLS OF THE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1233 PM EST SUN DEC 14 2025
VERY COLD AIR CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY FALL THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE GUSTY WINDS MAKING
IT FEEL EVEN COLDER, THEN LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
AND TEENS ACROSS THE AREA AS THE WINDS DIMINISH. WIND CHILL VALUES
WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE VALLEY AND BELOW ZERO IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS AT TIMES INTO EARLY MONDAY. THE COLD WEATHER
ADVISORY WILL BE ALLOWED TO CONTINUE AS IS.
THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR WILL QUICKLY SHIFT TO OUR EAST AS THE UPPER
TROUGH EXITS AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS THE REGION AND
THEN OFF TO OUR EAST. IT WILL REMAIN COLD MONDAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40, BUT BY TUESDAY HIGHS
WILL RECOVER TO BE JUST A LITTLE BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE 40S
TO LOWER 50S, AND THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY.
WE WILL STAY DRY THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY AND CURRENT TRENDS KEEP
WEDNESDAY DRY AS WELL.
THE UPPER FLOW WILL BE QUASI-ZONAL OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY, THEN
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE DIGGING INTO OVER THE PLAINS BEFORE LIFTING
OUT TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST IN THE THURSDAY/FRIDAY TIME FRAME.
MODELS HAVE COME INTO DECENT AGREEMENT IN FOCUSING OUR NEXT ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION AROUND THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF AND NEAR
A COLD FRONT THAT SWINGS THROUGH WITH THIS SYSTEM. THERMAL PROFILES
SUGGEST THIS PRECIPITATION WILL BE PRIMARILY RAIN. ENSEMBLE DATA
INDICATES A LOW (10-30%) CHANCE OF CONVECTIVE ENERGY EXCEEDING 100
J/KG MAINLY SOUTH, AND IT DOES LOOK LIKE THERE MAY BE SOME RUMBLES
OF THUNDER AT LEAST FOR OUR SOUTHERN AREAS LATE THURSDAY OR EARLY
THURSDAY NIGHT DEPENDING ON HOW THIS SYSTEM EVOLVES. THE LOW LEVEL
JET WILL BE STRONG AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM AS WELL, AND THE DIRECTION
MAY BE FAVORABLE FOR THE POSSIBILTY OF MOUNTAIN WAVE ENHANCED WINDS
IN THE NORMAL HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND FOOTHILLS OF THE MOUNTAINS
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FRIDAY AND SHOULD KEEP BOTH
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MOSTLY DRY. FRIDAY WILL SEE JUST A BRIEF COOL
DOWN BEFORE GRADUAL WARMING BEGINS AGAIN SATURDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM
WILL BE APPROACHING BY SUNDAY, WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION
THAT AT THIS POINT LOOKS TO BE MAINLY RAIN.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 614 PM EST SUN DEC 14 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. LIGHT
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 16 41 24 52 / 0 0 0 0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 13 39 25 50 / 0 0 0 0
OAK RIDGE, TN 13 37 23 47 / 0 0 0 0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 8 35 20 45 / 0 0 0 0
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.
TN...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ MONDAY FOR
ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-
CLAIBORNE-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-
HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-
MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-MORGAN-NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST BLOUNT-
NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST
MONROE-RHEA-ROANE-SCOTT TN-SEQUATCHIE-SEVIER SMOKY
MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST
MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.
VA...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR LEE-RUSSELL-
SCOTT VA-WASHINGTON VA-WISE.
DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...99
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