924
FXUS64 KMRX 231720
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
120 PM EDT THU APR 23 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 119 PM EDT THU APR 23 2026
- UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY. LOW AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY EACH DAY WITH VALUES IN
THE 20S AND 30S EXPECTED.
- INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY STORMS LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS ANTICIPATED EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH
POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 308 AM EDT THU APR 23 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA AND AN UPPER RIDGE
WILL BE BUILDING IN TODAY, PROVIDING PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND A VERY
WARM AFTERNOON. FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS, RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
WILL BE QUITE LOW AGAIN TODAY, WITH VALUES IN THE 20S ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA, BUT WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER THAN YESTERDAY. SLIGHT
IMPROVEMENT IN MINIMUM RH IS EXPECTED FRIDAY ALTHOUGH VALUES WILL
STILL BE LOW, AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS PICK UP TO AROUND 10 MPH
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
THE RIDGE FLATTENS OUT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS SHORT WAVE
ENERGY MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION WHILE A WEAKER SOUTHERN
STREAM WAVE APPROACHES OUR AREA FROM THE WEST. AN ASSOCIATED WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHED THROUGH OUR AREA SATURDAY. MODELS DO NOT
AGREE ON THE DETAILS WITH THIS SYSTEM, BUT MOST GENERALLY AGREE THAT
LITTLE OR NO PHASING OF THE WAVES OCCURS AND DYNAMICS WILL NOT BE
STRONG FOR OUR AREA. GIVEN THE POOR MODEL RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY AND
AGREEMENT AND THE FACT THAT THIS IS EXPECTED MODEL BEHAVIOR WITH
THESE TYPES OF WEAKER AND SOMEWHAT CHAOTIC SCENARIOS, IT IS BEST NOT
TO GET TOO CAUGHT UP IN THE DETAILS UNTIL WE GET CLOSER. HOWEVER,
RIGHT NOW ENSEMBLE DATA SUGGESTS THAT CAPE WILL BE LIMITED AND SHEAR
GENERALLY WEAK. ENSEMBLE JOINT PROBABILITIES FOR SBCAPE > 500 J/KG
AND 0-500MB BULK SHEAR > 30KTS IS GENERALLY AROUND OR LESS THAN 15%
FOR OUR AREA, AND USING MUCAPE PRODUCES ONLY SLIGHTLY HIGHER
RESULTS. THERE IS STILL TIME FOR THINGS TO CHANGE, BUT RIGHT NOW IT
APPEARS THAT WHILE A FEW STRONGER STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT, THE
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IS QUITE LOW FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. CURRENT TOTAL QPF SHOWS AROUND A QUARTER TO THREE QUARTERS
OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM.
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A MORE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM TO BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS EARLY IN THE WEEK, WITH THE HIGHEST
CHANCE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS MORE
DYNAMIC SYSTEM WILL HAVE BETTER POTENTIAL FOR A STRONGER LLJ THAT
WILL TAP INTO GULF MOISTURE. THIS LEADS TO SIGNIFICANTLY GREATER
JOINT PROBABILITIES OF CAPE > 500 J/KG AND BULK SHEAR > 30KTS
RELATIVE TO THE WEEKEND SYSTEM. RIGHT NOW THE HIGHER SEVERE CHANCES
STILL LOOK TO BE TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST, BUT THIS SYSTEM WILL BEAR
WATCHING.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 119 PM EDT THU APR 23 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LIGHT
SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS, GENERALLY LESS THAN 10KTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 57 85 63 79 / 0 10 80 70
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 56 83 60 77 / 0 10 70 80
OAK RIDGE, TN 54 83 60 78 / 0 10 70 80
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 50 81 57 74 / 0 10 40 80
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...99
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