078
FXUS64 KMRX 271738
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
138 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 130 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2026
- SHOWERS WITH A COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING,
WITH MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN AMOUNTS.
- BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AREAS TONIGHT,
AND POSSIBLY SOME AREAS SUNDAY NIGHT.
- ENHANCED FIRE DANGER TOMORROW INTO SUNDAY
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 130 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2026
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTHWARD TOWARD OUR AREA. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EVENING. NAM SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME MINOR AMOUNTS OF ELEVATED
INSTABILITY. SO WHILE MOSTLY RAIN IS EXPECTED, THERE IS A VERY LOW
CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
RAIN AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE FOR MOST
AREAS. THE EAST TN MOUNTAINS WILL HAVE BETTER CHANCES TO SEE
HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS DUE TO AN INCREASE IN FORCING FROM UPSLOPE
FLOW. RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR MOST AREAS WILL BE 0.1 INCHES OR LESS
WHILE AMOUNTS ACROSS THE EAST TN MOUNTAINS WILL COULD RANGE FROM A
FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH UP TO 0.5 INCHES IN ISOLATED AREAS.
RAINFALL SHOULD END PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES
SOUTH AND DRIER AIR BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION.
MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH NEAR FREEZING TO
BELOW FREEZING TEMPS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AREAS (NORTHERN CUMBERLAND
PLATEAU, NORTHEAST TN, SOUTHWEST VA,) AS WELL AS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE EAST TN MOUNTAINS. WITH THE BREEZY WINDS BEHIND
THE FRONT, WIND CHILLS WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS, WITH SINGLE DIGIT WIND CHILLS IN THE EAST TN MOUNTAINS.
THE MAIN CONCERN OVER THE WEEKEND WILL BE THE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. MUCH DRIER AIR WILL BE IN PLACE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
AND WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY. RH VALUES ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN LOWER
20S FOR MOST AREAS WITH NORTH WINDS GUSTING FROM 15 TO 20 MPH IN
VALLEY LOCATIONS AND 20 TO 30 MPH ACROSS THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS
OF THE EAST TN MOUNTAINS. AFTER COORDINATION WITH AREA FORESTRY
PARTNERS, AN ENHANCED FIRE DANGER STATEMENT WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR
TOMORROW FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-40. AN ADDITIONAL ENHANCED FIRE
DANGER STATEMENT IS LIKELY FOR SUNDAY AS WELL.
NEXT WEEK WILL FEATURE MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND WARMING TEMPERATURES,
WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S RETURNING ON TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT MAY BRING A
CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 130 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2026
GUSTY WINDS AHEAD OF AND BEHIND A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE PERIOD,
WITH WINDS SHIFTING FROM SOUTHWESTERLY TO NORTHERLY. MVFR
CONDITIONS TRI THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN TYS BY THIS EVENING. CHA
WILL LIKELY REMAIN VFR. TRI AND TYS GO BACK TO VFR TOMORROW
MORNING AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 39 62 40 70 / 30 0 0 0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 36 59 35 68 / 40 0 0 0
OAK RIDGE, TN 35 59 35 68 / 40 0 0 0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 32 54 32 66 / 40 0 0 0
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...99
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