953
FXUS64 KMRX 231851
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
151 PM EST MON FEB 23 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 128 PM EST MON FEB 23 2026
- WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THE FAR EAST TN MOUNTAINS
AND SOUTHWEST VA THROUGH THIS EVENING. PLEASE REFER TO THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY PRODUCT FOR MORE DETAILS.
- WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO BELOW ZERO ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH MONDAY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST VA,
EAST TN, AND SOUTHWEST NC MOUNTAINS.
- STRONG WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS POSSIBLE WEDNESDASY AND THURSDAY
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 128 PM EST MON FEB 23 2026
RADAR AND AREA OBSERVATIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW A GOOD DEAL OF SNOW
SHOWERS OR FLURRIES ACROSS MUCH OF EAST TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA. CYCLONIC AROUND A DEEP UPPER LOW OFF THE NORTHEAST
UNITED STATES IS KEEPING A GOOD DEAL OF LOW STRATUS CLOUD COVER
ACROSS THE AREA. COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SQUEEZE OUT THE
MOISTURE PRODUCING LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES THROUGH AT LEAST THIS
EVENING.
REPORTED SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA HAS RANGED
FROM 1 TO 4 INCHES WITH THE HIGHEST PEAKS UP TO 6 INCHES.
ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ADVISORY
AREA.
AS TYPICALLY THE CASE WITH STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW, STRATU-CU
OVERCAST IS SLOW TO ERODE. DEFINITELY SLOWER THAN NBM. A GRADUAL
EROSION OF THE CLOUDS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT.
FOR TUESDAY, LOW CLOUDS WILL BE REPLACED BY INCREASING HIGH AND
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS. DEEP UPPER LOW MOVES EAST WITH FLOW MAKING THE
TRANSITION TO MORE ZONAL. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MODERATION OF
TEMPERATURES.
FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, FAST ZONAL FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR A
SERIES OF JET STREAKS TO INCREASE THE BOUNDARY WEST TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW. THE 850MB JET INCREASES TO 50 KNOTS FOR WEDNESDAY PRODUCING
INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASING THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS BY
LATE IN THE DAY. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING, JET
DYNAMICS STRENGTHENS WITH GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT. INCREASING
FRONTO-GENETIC FORCING AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL PRODUCING
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. ENSEMBLE ANALYSIS SHOWS LITTLE TO NO
INSTABILITY SO THUNDER CHANCES ARE LOW. ALSO, ENSEMBLE QPF SHOWS A
60-70 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF 24 HOUR RAINFALL OF 1 INCH SO MUCH
NEEDED RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM.
BESIDES THE RAIN, WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, DRIER FLOW ALOFT WITH WEAK SURFACE
RIDGING WILL PRODUCE MILD AND DRY CONDITIONS.
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY, A SERIES OF JET STREAKS WILL ONCE AGAIN
INCREASE THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT BACK NORTH INTO THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEYS. INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1204 AM EST MON FEB 23 2026
SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES TO START AT TYS AND TRI, AND WILL
INCLUDE PROB30 MVFR GROUPS AT BOTH. OTHERWISE A VFR FORECAST FOR
THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST
THROUGH TODAY, THEN WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH LATE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 23 53 38 60 / 0 0 0 10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 20 47 39 56 / 0 0 0 20
OAK RIDGE, TN 20 46 37 56 / 0 0 0 20
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 19 42 33 52 / 10 0 10 20
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR BLOUNT
SMOKY MOUNTAINS-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-JOHNSON-SEVIER SMOKY
MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-UNICOI.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR LEE-
RUSSELL-SCOTT VA-WASHINGTON VA-WISE.
DISCUSSION...DH
AVIATION...DH
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