524
FXUS64 KMRX 011104
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
704 AM EDT WED APR 1 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 701 AM EDT WED APR 1 2026
- VERY WARM THROUGH SATURDAY. 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
- CHANCES FOR PM SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL INCREASE THROUGH FRIDAY,
WITH GREATER COVERAGE ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.
- COLD FRONT LATE WEEKEND WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES EARLY
NEXT WEEK. FROST POSSIBLE MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 239 AM EDT WED APR 1 2026
IN COMPARISON TO YESTERDAY, TODAY WILL BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER
WITH HIGHER HUMIDITY AND AN INCREASE IN SHOWER AND STORM POTENTIAL.
THE GREATEST COVERAGE WILL BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND CUMBERLAND PLATEAU. NOT A WHOLE LOT OF
SHEAR TO WORK WITH, SO ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL BE HARD TO COME BY.
CAPE WILL RUN CLOSE TO 1,000 J/KG. A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO A COUPLE
TENTHS OF AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE THIS
EVENING. ACTIVITY DIES AFTER SUNSET. ALTHOUGH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
WILL CONTINUE, GUSTS MAY NOT BE AS STRONG AS YESTERDAY AFTERNOON.
THE SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK-WEEK,
WITH SCATTERED PM SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS OUR AREA. AND NOT TO
MENTION, TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH LOW AND
POSSIBLY MID 80S FOR THE VALLEY EACH DAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE RUNNING 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. TYING
AND BREAKING OF RECORDS AT THE CLIMATE SITES, IS POSSIBLE. TRI-
CITIES DID TIE THE HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORD FOR YESTERDAY AFTERNOON.
A PATTERN CHANGE ARRIVES THIS WEEKEND WHEN A DEEPER TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO TAKE A NORTHERN PLAINS TO WESTERN GREAT LAKES TRACK. A
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR THE CENTRAL US WILL ALSO TRACK
TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE
FORECAST AREA SOMETIME LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY. THE
POTENTIALLY STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL HOPEFULLY BRING MUCH NEEDED
PRECIPITATION AREA-WIDE. STILL TOO EARLY TO KNOW IF STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM. SO FAR, ONLY WPC HIGHLIGHTS A
MRGL RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING FOR THE DAY 5 PERIOD.
FOLLOWING THE FRONT, COOLER MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES BEGINNING
EASTER SUNDAY TO KICK START THE FIRST FULL WEEK OF APRIL. A DRY FEW
DAYS MAY SET IN WITH LOW AFTERNOON RHS, SO A POSSIBLE RETURN OF
ENHANCED FIRE DANGER. FROST DEVELOPMENT MAY EVEN BE POSSIBLE SOME
MORNINGS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 701 AM EDT WED APR 1 2026
MVFR HAS DEVELOPED AT CHA AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST
ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS. OTHERWISE, MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGION WITH INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR
IMPACT AT TRI. HOWEVER, A PROB30 WAS MAINTAINED AT TYS. OVERNIGHT,
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH DECREASING RAIN
CHANCES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 83 62 85 63 / 40 20 20 10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 82 62 85 62 / 50 20 40 10
OAK RIDGE, TN 81 61 84 62 / 50 20 30 10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 79 57 82 57 / 70 20 40 10
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KS
AVIATION...BW
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