192
FXUS64 KMRX 300156
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
956 PM EDT MON MAY 29 2023
..NEW UPDATE
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 955 PM EDT MON MAY 29 2023
NO UPDATES TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING AS EVERYTHING IS ON TRACK.
BIGGEST CONCERN OVERNIGHT STILL REMAINS PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING,
MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEAST TN AND SOUTHWEST VA.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT MON MAY 29 2023
KEY MESSAGES:
1. DRY AND SEASONAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY.
THIS EVENING/TONIGHT
CURRENTLY THIS AFTERNOON, A CLOSED LOW IS LOCATED OVER THE CAROLINA
COAST THAT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE REST OF THE
PERIOD. THIS WILL KEEP A FOCUS OF SHOWERS IN FAR EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH LINGERING CLOUDS ELSEWHERE. SOME
CLEARING OVERNIGHT AND RECENT RAIN WILL ALLOW FOR AT LEAST PATCHY
FOG IN NORTHEAST TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. OTHERWISE, THE
NIGHT WILL BE DRY WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.
TUESDAY
A VERY WEAK FLOW PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE DURING THE DAY ON
TUESDAY WITH NEAR NORMAL MOISTURE, I.E. PWATS IN THE 1.0 TO 1.3
INCH RANGE. HEATING, COMBINED WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE, WILL ALLOW
FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION FOCUSED ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN. OVERALL,
INSTABILITY WILL BE PRETTY MARGINAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR IN THE
500 TO 1,000 J/KG. HOWEVER, IT WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR THUNDER
MENTION AREA-WIDE. WITH THESE CONSIDERATIONS, LOW PROBABILITY HWO
WORDING WILL BE UTILIZED FOR THE OUTSIDE CHANCE A STORM BECOMES
STRONGER.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT MON MAY 29 2023
KEY MESSAGES:
1. SCATTERED SHOWERS WED AND THU, BUT EXPECT RAIN CHANCES TO LOWER
LATE IN THE WEEK.
2. TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES, REACHING THE UPPER 80S
BY LATE THIS WEEK.
DISCUSSION:
AN UPPER LOW, CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN NC THIS AFTERNOON, WILL BE OFF
THE MID-ATLANTIC SEABOARD BY THE START OF THE PERIOD AS A REX BLOCK
PATTERN BREAKS DOWN. HOWEVER, THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK THE UPPER
RIDGE SHIFTS BACK WEST AS A STRONG TROUGH DROPS SOUTHEAST OFF THE
EASTERN QUEBEC AND NOVA SCOTIA. THIS WILL ACT TO PULL THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW BACK TO THE WEST BEFORE DRIER NORTHERLY FLOW
SETTLES IN ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN. AS SUCH, WED AND THU BOTH
LOOK LIKE THERE WILL BE SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS SHOULD BE DIURNALLY
DRIVEN SO WILL CONFINE MENTIONABLE RAIN CHANCES TO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS, BUT COULD SEE SOME OF THESE EXTEND INTO THE EARLY EVENING TOO.
BY FRIDAY, THE UPPER RIDGE IS GENERALLY ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY, WITH NORTHERLY FLOW EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ALONG MUCH OF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. IF YOU BELIEVE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE, FRIDAY
ONWARD SHOULD BE DRY. THE NBM KEEPS SOME DIURNALLY DRIVEN POPS GOING
ON FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND, BUT DID UNDERCUT THOSE VALUES A FAIR
AMOUNT.
TEMPERATURE WISE, IT LOOKS LIKE WE'LL FINALLY GET INTO SOME MORE
SUMMER LIKE TEMPERATURES AS AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE
MID AND EVEN SOME UPPER 80S BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 706 PM EDT MON MAY 29 2023
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT CHA THROUGH THE PERIOD, OTHER THAN A
PROB30 FOR MVFR VIS TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH THUNDERSTORMS. TYS
SHOULD REMAIN VFR UNTIL MVFR FOG TOMORROW MORNING, THEN BACK TO
VFR. VFR WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS EXPECTED AT TRI OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. THEN, MVFR TO IFR FOG OVERNIGHT AND BACK TO VFR TOMORROW
MORNING AFTER FOG CLEARS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 60 83 64 83 / 0 40 10 40
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 57 81 61 82 / 10 40 10 50
OAK RIDGE, TN 58 83 61 83 / 10 20 10 50
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 55 78 57 79 / 10 30 10 20
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM....CD
AVIATION...
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