538
FXUS64 KMRX 091109 AAA
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
609 AM EST TUE DEC 9 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 608 AM EST TUE DEC 9 2025
- DRY AND WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY AND WEDNESDAY PRIOR TO A COLD
FRONT LATER WEDNESDAY. HIGHER TERRAIN LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE
BEHIND THE SYSTEM EARLY THURSDAY.
- ANOTHER WARM-UP EXPECTED LATE WEEK WITH LOW CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION AROUND, PRIMARILY FOR THE NORTH.
- COLD MORNING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
WITH SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES LIKELY AREA-WIDE AND WIND CHILLS
IN THE TEENS FOR PARTS OF NORTHEAST TN AND SOUTHWEST VA.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1211 AM EST TUE DEC 9 2025
LATER TODAY WILL PROVIDE A NICE BREAK FROM PRECIPITATION AND
THE DRAWN OUT DREARY OVERCAST CONDITIONS, AS CLOUD COVER WILL
DECREASE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE SOUTHEAST, WITH
TEMPERATURES ON THE INCLINE TODAY AND TOMORROW.
CONDITIONS CHANGE AGAIN LATER WEDNESDAY WHEN A LOW CENTER
CROSSING SOUTHERN MICHIGAN BRINGS A COLD FRONT TO THE AREA. BEFORE
THAT ARRIVES, A STRONG WESTERLY JET WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY
MORNING. BASED ON THE FLOW DIRECTION, THIS ISN'T IDEAL FOR A
MOUNTAINWAVE SET-UP. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST FOR
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY. A MOSTLY RAIN WITH SOME SNOW
MIX, WILL TRANSITION TO MOSTLY SNOW THURSDAY MORNING. NW FLOW
BEHIND THE STORM SYSTEM AND FRONT MAY BRING LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS TO
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. NOTHING MORE
THAN AN INCH AND A HALF, CURRENTLY.
A SHORT COOL-DOWN CAN BE EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH DRIER CONDITIONS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND DECREASING CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER,
PRECIPITATION FROM A WEAK SYSTEM WILL BRING INCREASED CHANCES TO
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA. MEANWHILE, UPPER HEIGHTS WILL BE RISING
WHICH WILL BRING THE WARMER TEMPERATURES BACK FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.
LATER THIS WEEKEND BECOMES A BIT COMPLICATED IN REGARDS TO
MORE PRECIPITATION DUE TO POTENTIAL SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN STREAM
SYSTEMS COLLIDING, BUT THE ONE THING MODELS CAN SEE AND AGREE ON,
IS A SUBSTANTIAL DROP IN TEMPERATURES SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BARREL ITS WAY THROUGH,
ORIGINATING FROM ALASKA AND WESTERN CANADA, WHERE TEMPERATURES
THERE HAVE BEEN IN THE 50S BELOW AT NIGHT, BUT WE WILL NOT SEE
THAT HERE.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 608 AM EST TUE DEC 9 2025
MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST AT TRI FOR MOST OF THE MORNING, BECOMING
SCATTERED BY THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE FOREAST.
NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD, A STRONG INVERSION DEVELOPS WITH A
LLJ NEAR 2 KFT, SUGGESTING LLWS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 49 35 56 31 / 0 0 0 0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 47 36 53 31 / 0 0 10 10
OAK RIDGE, TN 45 35 53 30 / 0 0 20 20
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 42 29 49 29 / 0 0 30 50
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KS
AVIATION...DGS
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