856
FXUS64 KMRX 312344
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
744 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 729 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2026
- VERY WARM THROUGH SATURDAY. COLD FRONT LATE WEEKEND WILL BRING
COOLER TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY, MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON WITH GREATER COVERAGE ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH FROST POSSIBLE MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 237 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2026
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK WILL BE CHARACTERIZED
BY UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES WITH A SERIES OF
SHORT-WAVES EXITING INTO THE PLAINS STATES INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
SURFACE RIDGING INTO THE CAROLINAS AND FAR SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
WILL KEEP DEEP MOISTURE FROM MOVING NORTH INTO THE EAST TENNESSEE
VALLEY AND SOUTHERN APPALACHAINS WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S TO LOWER
60S.
HOWEVER, HREF AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS DO SHOW ENOUGH INSTABILITY
INCREASE TO PRODUCE MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. ISOLATED STRONG
STORM IS POSSIBLE BUT SHEAR AND INSTABILITY NOT STRONG ENOUGH FOR
ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
UPPER RIDGING WILL PRODUCE UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS OVER THE
REGION WITH HIGHS 15 TO ALMOST 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. AT THIS
TIME, RECORD TEMPERATURES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED.
FOR LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING, A DEEPER SHORT-WAVE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY. UPPER LEVEL JET WILL EXTEND FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH TO PUT THE AREA UNDER THE FAVORED RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
OF THE JET. BROAD DIVERGENCE IS NOTED WHICH WILL ENHANCE THE FRONTAL-
GENETIC FORCING ALONG AN INCOMING FRONT. A LINE OF CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING.
LREF AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS SHOW VERY LIMITED INSTABILITY AND
MAINLY ELEVATED. EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE BUT LIMITED
INSTABILITY AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL KEEP POTENTIAL OF SEVERE STORMS
LOW.
FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK, DRY NORTHWEST FLOW AND SURFACE
RIDGING WILL PRODUCE DRY CONDITIONS AND MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.
SOME FROST DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNINGS.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 729 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2026
WINDS ARE STARTING TO SUBSIDE ACROSS THE REGION. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL THIS TAF CYCLE. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE REGION STARTING LATE MORNING TOMORROW BUT THE BETTER CHANCE
WILL BE IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS WHEN SHOWERS WILL BE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED (STILL HIT AND MISS) WITH THUNDER MORE ISOLATED.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP TOMORROW BUT NOT AS STRONG AS THE
WINDS WERE TODAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 62 83 61 84 / 10 30 20 20
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 61 82 61 84 / 10 40 20 30
OAK RIDGE, TN 60 82 59 84 / 10 40 10 30
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 55 80 56 82 / 10 40 20 30
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DH
AVIATION...MCD
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