370
FXUS64 KMRX 281104 AAA
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
604 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 603 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2026
- DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- RAIN CHANCES RETURN THE FIRST OF THE WEEK, WITH AT LEAST SLIGHT
CHANCES PERSISTING THEREAFTER.
- WARMING TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGH TEMPS 15 TO 20
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1215 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2026
A GORGEOUS START TO THE WEEKEND YESTERDAY WILL CONTINUE INTO
TODAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES
WARMER. MID TO UPPER 60S WILL BE COMMON WITH A FEW READINGS IN THE
LOWER 70S. A RATHER WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH
SUNDAY. HOWEVER, PRECIPITATION WILL PRIMARILY REMAIN TO THE NORTH,
WITH POSSIBLE LOW END CHANCES OF RAIN FOR FAR NORTHERN REACHES OF
THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES A TOUCH COOLER, WITH THE GREATEST
DIFFERENCE/NOTICEABLE CHANGE ACROSS THE NORTH, WHERE THE COLD
FRONT WILL HAVE ALREADY CROSSED AT PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY.
RAIN CHANCES FOR THE REST OF THE AREA RETURN DURING THE WEEK NEXT
WEEK, WITH REPEATED SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY MOVING WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY. A POTENTIALLY MORE PRONOUNCED SYSTEM
MOVES IN TOWARDS THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK, UNDER A STRONGER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. MONDAY ONWARD WILL AT LEAST PRESENT A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION EACH DAY THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
THOUGH WE ARE A WAYS OUT FOR SPECIFICS ON NEXT WEEK'S
PRECIPITATION, SOMETHING WE'RE THE MOST ASSURED OF ARE MUCH
WARMER TEMPERATURES TO COME. THE FORECAST PERIOD MAY ROUND OUT
WITH MID TO POSSIBLY, UPPER 70S FOR THE VALLEY. 80 DEGREES MAY
EVEN SNEAK IN THERE SOMEWHERE, ESPECIALLY FOR THE SOUTHERN VALLEY.
THIS WOULD BE IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR EARLY MARCH.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 603 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2026
NO AVIATION IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED THIS TAF PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 72 46 73 45 / 0 0 0 10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 68 46 68 42 / 0 0 0 20
OAK RIDGE, TN 69 44 68 41 / 0 0 0 20
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 64 41 63 35 / 0 0 0 10
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KS
AVIATION...DGS
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