620
FXUS64 KMRX 121143
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
743 AM EDT THU MAR 12 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 741 AM EDT THU MAR 12 2026
- LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION PROBABLE ACROSS HIGHEST RIDGETOPS EAST
TN AND SOUTHWEST VA MOUNTAINS LATER THIS MORNING. BRIEF
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW ALSO EXPECTED FOR SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS.
- MUCH COLDER TODAY, WARMING TREND FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE IN BY LATE SUNDAY
OR SUNDAY NIGHT, FOLLOWED BY A SURGE OF SUB-FREEZING
TEMPERATURES
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 143 AM EDT THU MAR 12 2026
THE SEVERE THREAT ENDED SEVERAL HOURS AGO AND LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN
SHOWERS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT,
ALONG WITH CONTINUED BREEZY WINDS. THE MAIN STORY OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS WILL BE THE SURGE OF COLDER AIR THAT MOVES IN LATER THIS
MORNING, TRANSITIONING RAIN SHOWERS OVER TO SNOW ACROSS THE EAST TN
AND SOUTHWEST VA MOUNTAINS. SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS, ALONG WITH THE
NORTHERN CUMBERLAND PLATEAU, WILL LIKELY SEE A CHANGEOVER AS WELL.
NAM SOUNDINGS SHOW THIS OCCURRING BETWEEN 09 AND 12Z. THIS ALIGNS
VERY WELL WITH THE LATEST HRRR HOURLY PRECIP-TYPE OUTPUT.
VALLEY LOCATIONS EAST OF I-75 AND NORTH OF I-40 WILL HAVE THE BETTER
CHANCES TO SEE THIS BRIEF WINDOW OF SNOW. HOWEVER, THESE AREAS ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO SEE ANY ACCUMULATION DUE TO THE RECENT WARM SPELL
AND THUS WARMER GROUND TEMPS. THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE EAST
TN MOUNTAINS MAY SEE 1 TO 2 INCHES, WHILE ISOLATED 0.5 TO 1 INCH
AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MID ELEVATIONS. ISOLATED 0.5 TO 1
INCH AMOUNTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHWEST VA.
LOWER ELEVATIONS ACROSS SOUTHWEST VA AND EXTREME NETN MAY SEE A
DUSTING. LATEST NBM PROBS FOR GREATER THAN 0.5 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS
THE EAST TN AND SOUTHWEST VA MOUNTAINS RANGES BETWEEN 60 TO 70%.
MODELS SHOW THE PRECIP EXITING EAST AROUND 10 AM EDT. THE WINDOW FOR
SNOW WILL BE BRIEF, BUT ONCE THE CHANGEOVER OCCURS, MODERATE SNOW
RATES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOME AREAS, AND PERHAPS EVEN SOME HEAVY
RATES AS WELL. AREAS THAT SEE THE MODERATE, TO POSSIBLE HEAVY SNOW
RATES, WILL SEE REDUCED VISIBILITIES.
SKIES WILL CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON, BUT WITH LOWER ELEVATION HIGH TEMPS
ONLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. THE MOUNTAINS WILL STAY IN THE 30S
AND 40S BUT WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS DUE TO THE CONTINUED
GUSTY WINDS.
DRY WEATHER AND A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY,
WITH HIGHS BACK IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. THEN, MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN
AND POSSIBLE STORMS ROLL IN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF
ANOTHER COLD FRONT AND DEEP UPPER TROUGH. SOME STORMS COULD BE
STRONG, DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH INSTABILITY IS IN PLACE. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS SYSTEM AS IT APPROACHES.
ADDITIONALLY, DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH AND ALIGNMENT OF THE LLJ, A
MOUNTAIN WAVE EVENT IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING ACROSS
THE EAST TN MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.
MUCH COLDER AIR IS EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 20S ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S ARE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY. WE
WARM BACK UP INTO THE 50S ON WEDNESDAY AS THE DEEP TROUGH LIFTS OFF
TO OUR NORTHEAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO NOSE BACK IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 741 AM EDT THU MAR 12 2026
MORNING RAIN TO MIXED PRECIPITATION AND CHANGEOVER TO SNOW NORTH
OF KNOXVILLE WILL END OVER THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS OR SO AS THE SHIELD
OF PRECIPITATION STEADILY MOVES EASTWARD. CLOUDS WILL SCATTER NOT
LONG AFTER. VFR SKIES THEREAFTER WITH WINDS STEADILY WEAKENING,
WINDS TONIGHT WILL BE CALM UNDER CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 57 37 66 41 / 20 0 0 0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 53 34 63 40 / 60 0 0 0
OAK RIDGE, TN 54 34 63 40 / 30 0 0 0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 49 29 61 37 / 90 0 0 0
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...WELLINGTON
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