051
FXUS64 KMRX 081834
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
234 PM EDT THU OCT 8 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 230 PM EDT THU OCT 8 2026
- THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ISAIAS WILL IMPACT THE REGION SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY.
- GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. POTENTIAL
FOR HIGH WINDS OVER THE EASTERN TENNESSEE MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TENNESSEE.
- HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE FOR THE PLATEAU, SOUTHEAST TENNESSEE,
AND SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 230 PM EDT THU OCT 8 2026
THE PRIMARY CONCERN FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE THE IMPACTS
FROM THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ISAIAS THIS WEEKEND. HURRICANE ISAIAS
IS CURRENTLY NORTH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND IS FORECAST
STRENGTHEN FURTHER OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE STORM WILL LANDFALL
SOMEWHERE ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST SOMETIME FRIDAY EVENING-NIGHT
BEFORE TURNING NORTHWEST. THE REMNANT TROPICAL LOW WILL MOVE INTO
WESTERN TENNESSEE BY SATURDAY EVENING. THIS EVENT WILL BE ANOTHER
GREAT EXAMPLE OF IMPACTS OCCURRING AWAY FROM THE TRACK OF THE
SURFACE LOW. GUSTY WINDS AND MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BEGIN
SATURDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT
THIS STORM WILL MOVE THROUGH FAIRLY QUICKLY AS IT WILL BEGIN TO
PHASE WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH NE NOAM. THIS WILL
LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING.
LET'S BREAKDOWN THE EXPECTED IMPACTS FROM THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE
ISAIAS FOR THE REGION FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY:
HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL: THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL BEGINNING SATURDAY MORNING FOR MAINLY THE PLATEAU,
SOUTHEAST TENNESSEE, AND SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL RANGE BETWEEN 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO
3" POSSIBLE IN SE TN. THERE WILL BE AN AREA OF LIGHTER AMOUNTS WHERE
DOWNSLOPE WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL TENNESSEE VALLEY ACT
TO LIMIT THE POTENTIAL QPF AMOUNTS. A FLOOD WATCH GOES INTO EFFECT
SATURDAY MORNING FOR PORTIONS OF SE TN AND SW NC.
HIGH WINDS POTENTIAL: THE FIRST CORRIDOR OF HIGH WIND POTENTIAL
EXISTS ACROSS SE TN AND IN AND AROUND THE CHATTANOOGA AREA. WIND
GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. HIGHER
ELEVATIONS AROUND THE CHATTANOOGA AREA COULD SEE GUSTS BY DAYBREAK
SATURDAY IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH, ESPECIALLY LOOKOUT AND SIGNAL
MOUNTAINS.
THE SECOND CORRIDOR OF HIGH WINDS WILL BE ALONG THE EASTERN TN
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. THE RRFS HIGHLIGHTS THE POTENTIAL OF HIGH
WINDS WITH PEAK GUSTS UP TO 80 MPH IN THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY.
MOUNTAIN WAVE HIGH WINDS LOOK LIKELY FOR THE FAR EAST TENNESSEE
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS GIVEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE BETWEEN
ISAIAS AND A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN THE CAROLINAS. THE POTENTIAL
FOR WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 60 TO 80 MPH IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. A HIGH WIND WATCH GOES INTO EFFECT FOR SATURDAY MORNING
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING TO ADDRESS THE POTENTIAL HIGH WINDS.
FOR THE REST OF EAST TENNESSEE, SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA, AND SOUTHWEST
NORTH CAROLINA: SURFACE WINDS OF 15 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45
MPH ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WHAT ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER? ON SATURDAY, INSTABILITY IS SPARSE AND ELEVATED THAT
SHOULD LIMIT ANY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS OUR AREA. ON
SUNDAY, REMNANTS OF ISAIAS MOVES NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE REGION
WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS CONTINUING. THE DRY SLOT MAY ALLOW SOME
LIMITED INSTABILITY TO BUILD IN AND SUPPORT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
CHANCE. THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS VERY LOW. THE
REMNANTS OF ISAIAS WILL QUICKLY MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
SUNDAY NIGHT.
LOOKING AHEAD TO NEXT WEEK, WE WILL SEE THE RETURN OF UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AS IT BUILDS INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL RETURN A
PROLONGED STRETCH OF DRY, MOSTLY SUNNY WEATHER FOR MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RUN A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN NORMAL
WITH LIMITED PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH MID-WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 112 PM EDT THU OCT 8 2026
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS LEADING TO CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THIS HIGH SHOULD REMAIN
ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY LEADING TO VFR FLYING
CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES. KTRI DID SEE A PERIOD OF LOW
CLOUDS/FOG THIS MORNING BUT OVERALL TRENDS DO NOT APPEAR FAVORABLE
FOR A REPEAT FRIDAY MORNING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 61 82 62 71 / 0 0 70 100
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 58 82 60 72 / 0 0 50 90
OAK RIDGE, TN 57 81 60 71 / 0 0 40 90
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 52 79 57 70 / 0 0 30 80
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
CHEROKEE-CLAY.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
CHEROKEE-CLAY.
TN...FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
BRADLEY-EAST POLK-HAMILTON-MARION-SEQUATCHIE-WEST POLK.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-BRADLEY-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-EAST
POLK-HAMILTON-JOHNSON-MARION-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-
SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-UNICOI-
WEST POLK.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BH
AVIATION...CD
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page