436
FXUS64 KMRX 020010
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
710 PM EST THU JAN 1 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 644 PM EST THU JAN 1 2026
- A WEAK SYSTEM PASSING SOUTH OF OUR AREA WILL BRING RAIN FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING.
- ANOTHER WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED INTO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1228 PM EST THU JAN 1 2026
A NW FLOW PATTERN WITH A TROUGH OFF THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE WILL
TRANSITION TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. WARM ADVECTION
AT 850 MB WILL DEVELOP AND BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW, WITH FRIDAY'S HIGHS REACHING WELL INTO THE 50S. CLOUD
COVER WILL BE INCREASING TOMORROW WITH THE WARM ADVECTION PATTERN
AND MIDLEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. BY FRIDAY EVENING THE TOP-DOWN MOISTENING OF THE COLUMN
SHOULD ALLOW FOR LIGHT RAIN TO REACH THE GROUND, STARTING IN OUR SW
CORNER AND SPREADING UP THE TN VALLEY THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE LATEST
NBM QPF AMOUNTS HAVE COME IN LIGHTER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS, WITH A HALF
TO 3/4 INCH IN SOUTHERN SECTIONS TO A TENTH TO 1/4 INCH IN NORTHERN
SECTIONS. THE STRONGEST FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM STAY IN AL/GA,
AND ANY CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD STAY TO OUR SOUTH. PRECIP
WILL BE TAPERING OFF THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY, WITH DECREASING
CLOUDS SATURDAY NIGHT.
BY SUNDAY, BROAD RIDGING WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS, WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AS
THE RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS EASTWARD AND THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS TO NEW
ENGLAND, TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE EARLY PART
OF THE WEEK, REACHING INTO THE 60S BY TUESDAY. ON WEDNESDAY, A WEAK
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO TRACK FAR TO OUR NORTH AND BRING A CHANCE FOR
RAIN.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 644 PM EST THU JAN 1 2026
PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE TAF CYCLE. SLIGHT
ENHANCEMENT OF WESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW TONIGHT COULD LEAD TO
POCKETS OF LLWS ACROSS THE REGION, THOUGH CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN TAF AT THIS TIME. THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD,
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM WHICH WILL BRING INCREASING RAIN CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 39 59 47 56 / 0 30 90 50
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 38 57 44 51 / 0 10 80 60
OAK RIDGE, TN 35 55 43 51 / 0 10 70 50
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 32 52 39 49 / 0 0 50 60
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DGS
AVIATION...KRS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page