394
FXUS64 KMRX 271118
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
718 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 714 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2026
- ANOTHER DAY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING WITH ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED COVERAGE.
- STORM CHANCES WILL NOT GO AWAY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, BUT
THE TREND IS TO SEE LONGER AND LONGER PERIODS OF DRY WEATHER AND
SMALLER WINDOWS OF STORMS AS WE HEAD INTO THE BACK HALF OF THE
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 123 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2026
RAIN CHANCES TO CONTINUE AGAIN TODAY, BUT EXPECTING EVEN MORE
ISOLATED RAIN CHANCES THANKS TO WEAK UPPER AND SURFACE LEVEL
FORCING. CAMS ARE DEPICTING WIDELY SCATTERED TO ISOLATED COVERAGE,
WITH THE SOUTHERN VALLEY AND SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE MOUNTAINS MOST
LIKELY TO SEE SCATTERED CONVECTION. HRRR ALSO DEPICTS 20 TO 30 KNOTS
OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR, BUT OVERALL PROFILES SUGGEST SEVERE THREAT IS
ONCE AGAIN VERY LIMITED. A SIMILAR STORY WILL PLAY OUT ON THURSDAY,
WITH PERHAPS EVEN MORE LIMITED CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. SHORT OF ANY
STORM FALLING EXACTLY ON TOP OF OUR MORE SATURATED LOCATIONS, FLOOD
THREAT IS PRETTY LIMITED BUT NOT ZERO, DEPENDING PRIMARILY ON IF A
STORM CAN QUICKLY DUMP A LOT OF RAINFALL ON ALREADY SATURATED
GROUND.
FRIDAY THE GFS AND EURO ARE COMING INTO ALIGNMENT WITH POTENTIALLY
MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY IN THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. A STRETCHED OUT PIECE OF VORTICITY,
COUPLED WITH THE ENTRANCE TO A JET STREAK AND THE NEARBY STATIONARY
FRONT, MAY BE ENOUGH TO SPAWN A GREATER COVERAGE OF STORMS ON
FRIDAY. BEYOND FRIDAY, WE'LL GENERALLY BE IN A WARM GENTLE RIDGE,
WITH REMARKABLY FLAT TEMPERATURE TRENDS, AND NO CLEAR SHARP AIRMASS
CHANGE FOR JUST A LITTLE WHILE LONGER. AS WE HEAD OUT AS FAR AS
MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK, A LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL ENVELOP PORTIONS OF THE
EASTERN US. UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TROUGH COUPLED WITH A
GENERALLY REMNANT MOIST AIRMASS MEANS LOW POPS TO COVER FOR AN
ISOLATED STORM WILL REMAIN.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 714 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2026
CIGS ARE MOSTLY VFR ACROSS THE REGION WITH MVFR IN THE SOUTHERN TN
VALLEY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY MID MORNING. SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY STORMS IS LIKELY NEAR
TRI TONIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 83 67 84 66 / 50 30 50 30
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 82 66 82 63 / 50 50 70 10
OAK RIDGE, TN 81 64 82 62 / 60 40 40 10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 81 63 81 57 / 50 70 70 0
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...WELLINGTON
AVIATION...MCD
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