657
FXUS64 KMRX 141736
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
136 PM EDT WED OCT 14 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 118 PM EDT WED OCT 14 2026
- UNUSUALLY WARM FOR OCTOBER AND MOSTLY DRY THROUGH THURSDAY.
- A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE NORTH TONIGHT/THURSDAY, WITH MORE SHOWERS
AROUND FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT.
- FROST IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT, AND TO A LESSER EXTENT ON
SUNDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 118 PM EDT WED OCT 14 2026
WE REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE LARGE UPPER RIDGE PARKED
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US, WHICH IS SPONSORING THE DRY AND
ANOMALOUSLY HOT OCTOBER DAYS WE ARE CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE APPROACHING, OR IN SOME CASES LIKELY
EXCEEDING, DAILY RECORD HIGHS BOTH TODAY AND THURSDAY.
RECORD HIGHS TODAY AND THURSDAY:
DATE CHATTANOOGA KNOXVILLE TRI-CITIES OAK RIDGE
10-14 87(1954) 87(1881) 85(1954) 85(1954)
10-15 85(1950) 87(1897) 83(1971) 83(2021)
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHWARD TOWARD OUR NORTHERN AREAS AS
WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE ENERGY SKIRTS BY TO OUR NORTH
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY, BUT THE FRONT WILL LIKELY STALL TO OUR
NORTH AND THEN RETREAT NORTH. WE MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS MAINLY
NORTH TONIGHT AND THURSDAY CLOSER TO THE FRONT. ENSEMBLE DATA
SHOWS VERY LIMITED CAPE, SO CHANCES FOR ANY THUNDER LOOK QUITE
LOW.
AN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING IN OUT OF CANADA WILL PUSH A MUCH STRONGER
COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA FRIDAY. THIS FRONT WILL NOT BRING MUCH
IN THE WAY OF RAINFALL TOTALS AS MOISTURE LOOKS LIMITED AND
SHALLOW, BUT WE WILL SEE MOSTLY LIGHT SHOWERS ESPECIALLY NORTH AND
MOUNTAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL BE
GUSTY FRIDAY FROM THE SOUTHWEST BECOMING WEST AND NORTHWEST
LATER IN THE DAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ALONG WITH COLDER AND DRIER AIR
FOR THE WEEKEND. THIS COLDER AIRMASS WILL BRING NIGHT TIME
TEMPERATURES INTO THE RANGE WHERE FROST MAY OCCUR ESPECIALLY
ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AREAS. RIGHT NOW THE BEST CHANCE FOR
WIDESPREAD FROST LOOKS TO BE SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF OUR AREA, AND A FEW OUTLYING VALLEY AREAS ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN HALF COULD SEE PATCHY FROST AS WELL. FROST POTENTIAL FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT LOOKS LOWER, BUT PATCHY FROST MAY OCCUR AGAIN
ESPECIALLY NORTH.
AFTER A COOL DAY SATURDAY WITH WELL BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES,
WE WILL SEE A WARMING TREND THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY WITH DRY
CONDITIONS CONTINUING.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 118 PM EDT WED OCT 14 2026
FOG CANNOT BE RULED OUT TOWARD SUNRISE, BUT THE PROBABILITY OF
IT IMPACTING ANY SITE LOOKS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED FOR THE PERIOD ALL SITES. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
LIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 63 89 63 84 / 0 0 0 0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 63 87 65 82 / 0 10 0 30
OAK RIDGE, TN 63 86 63 82 / 10 10 0 10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 60 84 61 80 / 10 10 0 40
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...99
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