410
FXUS64 KMRX 011827
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
227 PM EDT FRI MAY 1 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 225 PM EDT FRI MAY 1 2026
- PORTIONS OF THE AREA MAY SEE TEMPERATURES FAVORABLE FOR FROST
SUNDAY MORNING.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH A WARMING
TREND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- INCREASING CHANCES OF WIDESPREAD RAIN IN THE TUE/WED/THU
TIMEFRAME OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 225 PM EDT FRI MAY 1 2026
BIGGEST WEATHER CONCERN IN THE NEAR TERM IS THE POSSIBLE FROST
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. AREAS OF AND POSSIBLY,
WIDESPREAD FROST FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST TN, SOUTHWEST VA, THE
PLATEAU, AND THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. TEMPERATURES NEAREST OR
BELOW FREEZING APPEAR MOST LIKELY FOR THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE
SMOKIES AND CHEROKEE NATIONAL FOREST WHERE THE TN, NC, AND VA STATE
LINES MEET. SINCE WE ARE NOW WELL INTO THE GROWING SEASON, A FROST
ADVISORY FOR PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY MORNING COULD BE
LIKELY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT, BUT THE LIMITING FACTOR COULD BE JUST
HOW CLOSE THE TEMPERATURES CAN ACTUALLY REACH THE DEWPOINT THAT
MORNING, GIVEN THE DRY AIR MOVING IN. EITHER WAY, VERY COLD
TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY MAY, WHERE LOWS AT THE THREE CLIMATE SITES
AVERAGE 20 DEGREES WARMER THAN WHAT IS FORECAST.
NBM STILL ADVERTISING SOME SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW-END CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TN VALLEY, EAST TN MOUNTAINS, AND SOUTHWEST NC
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. HOWEVER, THE MAJORITY OF DETERMINISTIC
MODELS KEEP US MOSTLY DRY WITH THE PRECIP JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA.
WILL LOWER NBM CHANCE POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR JUST A FEW ISOLATED
AREAS AS I THINK WE STAY MOSTLY DRY.
TEMPERATURES MODERATE THE FIRST OF THE WEEK AS THE UPPER TROUGH
EXITS AND THE FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL. HIGHS NEXT WEEK WILL MOSTLY
BE IN THE 70S. CHANCES OF RAIN AND STORMS RETURN TO THE FORECAST
TUE/WED/THU AS ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH OUR AREA.
LREF MEANS SHOW MODERATE/HIGH SHEAR VALUES DURING THIS TIME BUT VERY
LOW MUCAPE VALUES. AS OF NOW, NOT OVERLY CONCERNED FOR SEVERE
WEATHER BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL
FOLLOW THIS SYSTEM AT THE END OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1254 PM EDT FRI MAY 1 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD AT ALL SITES. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME GUSTY AT CHA LATE IN PERIOD, WITH WINDS OUT
OF THE NORTH GUSTING TO 20KTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 51 69 44 71 / 20 0 0 0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 49 65 42 68 / 10 10 0 0
OAK RIDGE, TN 47 66 41 69 / 0 10 0 0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 44 62 37 64 / 10 10 0 0
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...99
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