764
FXUS64 KMRX 231128
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
728 AM EDT WED SEP 23 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 719 AM EDT WED SEP 23 2026
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS TODAY, WITH LIGHTER RAIN SHOWERS
ON THURSDAY. A LOW CHANCE FOR FLASH FLOODING EXISTS WITH ANY
PROLONGED HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY.
- COMFORTABLE EARLY FALL WEATHER WITH NO RAIN CHANCES BEGINNING
FRIDAY AND PERSISTING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 138 AM EDT WED SEP 23 2026
HERE IN SOUTHERN APPALACHIA, WE'RE GETTING ANOTHER BOUT OF HOMEGROWN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. A DIVING TROUGH CUTTING TO THE
SOUTHEAST UNDERNEATH A REX BLOCK WILL COMBINE A GOOD VORT MAX, SOME
MILD UPPER DIVERGENCE, AND WARM AND MOIST AIR TO PRODUCE ANOTHER
ROUND OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY. EFFECTIVE
SHEAR IS PRESENT UNDERNEATH ALL THAT, AROUND 20 KNOTS, DEEP LAYER
SHEAR A LITTLE STRONGER, SO DEPENDING ON THE STORMS IT'S POSSIBLE
THERE'S ONE OR TWO SEVERE STORMS FOR WIND GUSTS, THOUGH I'M NOT AS
SOLD ON A SEVERE HAIL RISK. OTHERWISE STORM MOTIONS ARE FORECAST TO
BE NEAR 10 KNOTS, SO SLOW MOVING STORMS DO PRESENT A RISK FOR FLASH
FLOODING, ESPECIALLY IF ON PREVIOUSLY SATURATED SOILS OR VULNERABLE
SOILS. BOTH 00Z REFS AND 00Z HREF DEPICT HEAVY RAIN SWATHS ENOUGH TO
INDUCE FLASH FLOODING IN THE MOUNTAIN COUNTIES SOUTH OF KNOXVILLE
FOR TODAY, BUT I WOULDN'T TAKE THE EXACT LOCATIONS AS GOSPEL.
THURSDAY SKINNY AND SOMEWHAT SHALLOW VERTICAL PROFILES WILL STILL
SUPPORT A FEW SHOWERS, WITH PERHAPS MORE SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN UNDER
THE STILL MOIST ATMOSPHERE.
CHATTANOOGA. CONGRATULATIONS. AFTER 50 DAYS OF 90F OR HOTTER
WEATHER, YOU HAVE ATTAINED THE NEXT PART OF THE YEAR: STILL WARM BUT
NOT EXCRUCIATINGLY HOT. POSSIBLY EVEN MORE SHOCKING ARE THE LOW
TEMPERATURES, AFTER 100+ DAYS OF MINIMUMS BEING 60F OR GREATER,
CHATTANOOGA WILL HIT THE 50S BEGINNING THIS WEEKEND.
GFS/EURO ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT WE'LL BE ON THE BACKSIDE OF A SOLID
NOR'EASTER ON THE EASTERN SEABOARD THIS WEEKEND, WHICH MEANS WE'LL
BE ON THE RECEIVING END OF DRY CONTINENTAL AIR WHILE THAT STORM
SYSTEM MATURES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. MIGHT HAVE A FEW
OVERPERFORMING RADIATION NIGHTS THIS WEEKEND IN VIRGINIA, SKIES LOOK
TO BE CLEAR IN THE LOW PWAT ENVIRONMENT WITH VERY DRY AIR PRESENT.
IT IS CONCEIVABLE THAT A FEW COLDER HOLLOWS MIGHT GET INTO, GASP,
THE UPPER 30S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNINGS! FIRST TASTE OF FALL HAS
ARRIVED. DAYTIME AFTERNOON RH VALUES ARE LIKELY TO LEAD TO A VERY
PLEASANT WEEKEND, WHICH IS THE BEST BENEFIT FROM DRY AIR PLUS STILL
MILDLY WARM TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 719 AM EDT WED SEP 23 2026
A FEW SHOWERS HAVE SPRUNG UP EARLY THIS MORNING. SATELLITE IMAGERY
SUGGESTS THERE COULD BE SOME ACCAS PRESENT THAT WOULD SUPPORT
ISOLATED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. THERE SHOULD BE A LULL IN ACTIVITY
UNTIL EARLY AFTERNOON WHEN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS AND
SHOWERS DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION. I KEPT PROB30S IN THERE FOR NOW
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY ON COVERAGE. SOME HI-RES GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
WE COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS HANG ON THROUGH 02-04Z THIS EVENING, BUT
OTHERS SUGGEST WE'LL DRY OUT BY 00Z. REGARDLESS, ANOTHER NIGHT OF
LOWER VFR TO MVFR CIGS APPEARS TO BE ON TAP WITH COOLER MID LEVELS
WORKING IN BEHIND THE PRECIP. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT ARE VARIABLE
THROUGHOUT WITH SOME STRONGER GUSTS POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 84 65 81 61 / 80 70 40 20
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 80 64 77 57 / 100 80 40 0
OAK RIDGE, TN 79 62 76 57 / 100 70 40 0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 76 57 72 49 / 70 80 10 0
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...FLOOD WATCH FROM 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING
FOR LEE-WISE.
DISCUSSION...WELLINGTON
AVIATION...BH
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