192  
FXUS64 KMRX 300156  
AFDMRX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN  
956 PM EDT MON MAY 29 2023  
   
..NEW UPDATE
 
 
   
UPDATE
 
 
ISSUED AT 955 PM EDT MON MAY 29 2023  
 
NO UPDATES TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING AS EVERYTHING IS ON TRACK.  
BIGGEST CONCERN OVERNIGHT STILL REMAINS PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING,  
MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEAST TN AND SOUTHWEST VA.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT MON MAY 29 2023  
 
KEY MESSAGES:  
 
1. DRY AND SEASONAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH SCATTERED  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY.  
 
THIS EVENING/TONIGHT  
 
CURRENTLY THIS AFTERNOON, A CLOSED LOW IS LOCATED OVER THE CAROLINA  
COAST THAT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE REST OF THE  
PERIOD. THIS WILL KEEP A FOCUS OF SHOWERS IN FAR EASTERN PORTIONS  
OF THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH LINGERING CLOUDS ELSEWHERE. SOME  
CLEARING OVERNIGHT AND RECENT RAIN WILL ALLOW FOR AT LEAST PATCHY  
FOG IN NORTHEAST TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. OTHERWISE, THE  
NIGHT WILL BE DRY WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.  
 
TUESDAY  
 
A VERY WEAK FLOW PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE DURING THE DAY ON  
TUESDAY WITH NEAR NORMAL MOISTURE, I.E. PWATS IN THE 1.0 TO 1.3  
INCH RANGE. HEATING, COMBINED WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE, WILL ALLOW  
FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION FOCUSED ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN. OVERALL,  
INSTABILITY WILL BE PRETTY MARGINAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR IN THE  
500 TO 1,000 J/KG. HOWEVER, IT WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR THUNDER  
MENTION AREA-WIDE. WITH THESE CONSIDERATIONS, LOW PROBABILITY HWO  
WORDING WILL BE UTILIZED FOR THE OUTSIDE CHANCE A STORM BECOMES  
STRONGER.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM
 
 
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)  
ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT MON MAY 29 2023  
 
KEY MESSAGES:  
 
1. SCATTERED SHOWERS WED AND THU, BUT EXPECT RAIN CHANCES TO LOWER  
LATE IN THE WEEK.  
 
2. TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES, REACHING THE UPPER 80S  
BY LATE THIS WEEK.  
 
DISCUSSION:  
 
AN UPPER LOW, CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN NC THIS AFTERNOON, WILL BE OFF  
THE MID-ATLANTIC SEABOARD BY THE START OF THE PERIOD AS A REX BLOCK  
PATTERN BREAKS DOWN. HOWEVER, THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK THE UPPER  
RIDGE SHIFTS BACK WEST AS A STRONG TROUGH DROPS SOUTHEAST OFF THE  
EASTERN QUEBEC AND NOVA SCOTIA. THIS WILL ACT TO PULL THE  
AFOREMENTIONED LOW BACK TO THE WEST BEFORE DRIER NORTHERLY FLOW  
SETTLES IN ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN. AS SUCH, WED AND THU BOTH  
LOOK LIKE THERE WILL BE SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS SHOULD BE DIURNALLY  
DRIVEN SO WILL CONFINE MENTIONABLE RAIN CHANCES TO THE AFTERNOON  
HOURS, BUT COULD SEE SOME OF THESE EXTEND INTO THE EARLY EVENING TOO.  
 
BY FRIDAY, THE UPPER RIDGE IS GENERALLY ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER  
VALLEY, WITH NORTHERLY FLOW EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ALONG MUCH OF THE  
EASTERN SEABOARD. IF YOU BELIEVE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE, FRIDAY  
ONWARD SHOULD BE DRY. THE NBM KEEPS SOME DIURNALLY DRIVEN POPS GOING  
ON FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND, BUT DID UNDERCUT THOSE VALUES A FAIR  
AMOUNT.  
 
TEMPERATURE WISE, IT LOOKS LIKE WE'LL FINALLY GET INTO SOME MORE  
SUMMER LIKE TEMPERATURES AS AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE  
MID AND EVEN SOME UPPER 80S BY THE END OF THE WEEK.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
(00Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 706 PM EDT MON MAY 29 2023  
 
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT CHA THROUGH THE PERIOD, OTHER THAN A  
PROB30 FOR MVFR VIS TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH THUNDERSTORMS. TYS  
SHOULD REMAIN VFR UNTIL MVFR FOG TOMORROW MORNING, THEN BACK TO  
VFR. VFR WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS EXPECTED AT TRI OVER THE NEXT FEW  
HOURS. THEN, MVFR TO IFR FOG OVERNIGHT AND BACK TO VFR TOMORROW  
MORNING AFTER FOG CLEARS.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 60 83 64 83 / 0 40 10 40  
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 57 81 61 82 / 10 40 10 50  
OAK RIDGE, TN 58 83 61 83 / 10 20 10 50  
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 55 78 57 79 / 10 30 10 20  
 

 
   
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NC...NONE.  
TN...NONE.  
VA...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...  
LONG TERM....CD  
AVIATION...  
 
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