904
FXUS64 KMRX 221135
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
735 AM EDT WED APR 22 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 726 AM EDT WED APR 22 2026
- UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY. LOW AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY EACH DAY WITH VALUES IN
THE 20S AND 30S EXPECTED.
- INCREASING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY THIS WEEKEND WITH LIKELY
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY STORMS, ESPECIALLY SATURDAY.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS ANTICIPATED EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH
POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 247 AM EDT WED APR 22 2026
AN MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORT-WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY
INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS LATER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS
WAVE WILL PRODUCE AN AREA OF CONVECTION THAT MAY APPROACH SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, AT THIS TIME, THE DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE
LOOK LIKELY TO STAY TO OUR NORTH WITH SURFACE RIDGING HOLDING OVER
OUR AREA, SO DRY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO PERSIST. FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE TO BE ELEVATED WITH LOW AFTERNOON RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE 20S COMMON ACROSS THE AREA, AND AFTERNOON
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 5 TO 15 MPH RANGE WITH THE HIGHER
VALUES ACROSS THE NORTH ALONG WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS.
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA
PRODUCING MOSTLY DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BOTH DAYS. LOW
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL CONTINUE WITH VALUES MAINLY
IN THE 20S AND 30S.
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY, A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE OVER
THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY REGION AND A SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES WILL FLATTEN OUT THE UPPER RIDGE, BUT
MODELS GENERALLY INDICATE LIMITED PHASING WITH THESE WAVES AND
INSTABILITY AND DYNAMICS LOOK LIMITED FOR OUR AREA. SOME SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON QPF AMOUNTS. CURRENT QPF SHOWS
AROUND A QUARTER TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL, BUT
ENSEMBLE DATA SUGGESTS IT MAY BE LESS.
ANOTHER WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS EARLY NEXT WEEK, BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS SOMETIME IN THE MONDAY/TUESDAY TIME FRAME. MODELS
INDICATE THE DYNAMICS ARE LIKELY TO BE STRONGER WITH THIS SYSTEM,
AND IT MAY TAP INTO GULF MOISTURE AS WELL. ENSEMBLE JOINT
PROBABILITIES OF CAPE AND SHEAR CURRENTLY SUGGEST A GREATER THREAT
OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH THIS SYSTEM. MODELS STILL DO NOT
AGREE ON DETAILS SUCH AS TIMING, BUT THIS WILL BEAR WATCHING AS WE
GET CLOSER AND THE DETAILS BECOME CLEARER.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 726 AM EDT WED APR 22 2026
THE AREA WILL BE SITUATED UNDER HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SE AND A
DISTURBANCE MOVING OVERHEAD TO OUR NORTH. A PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
CREATE WESTERLY WINDS AND GUSTS, PRIMARILY THE STRONGEST AT TRI
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. LLWS CONDITIONS COULD STILL BE POSSIBLE AT
TRI THE NEXT FEW HOURS WHILE THE SFC IS CALM. OTHERWISE, DRY
WEATHER, VFR, AND EITHER SKC OR HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 84 55 85 56 / 0 0 0 0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 81 53 83 56 / 0 0 10 0
OAK RIDGE, TN 82 52 83 53 / 0 0 0 0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 78 46 80 52 / 0 0 10 0
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...KS
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