961
FXUS64 KMRX 141827
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
227 PM EDT SUN JUN 14 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 226 PM EDT SUN JUN 14 2026
- SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING, AND A FEW OF THESE STORMS
MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AS THE PRIMARY
THREAT.
- TURNING COOLER AND DRIER EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK, CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL INCREASE AGAIN BY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 226 PM EDT SUN JUN 14 2026
CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING THE SEVERE POTENTIAL FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
COMPLICATING THE MATTER IS A MIX OF OVERCAST TO SCATTERED CLOUD
COVER OVER EAST AND MIDDLE TN AND THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON
CONVECTION, WHICH WILL LIKELY HAVE A SUPPRESSING EFFECT ON
INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON. THE CAMS ARE COMING INTO SOMEWHAT
BETTER AGREEMENT THAT CONVECTION WILL BLOSSOM IN MIDDLE
TN/NORTHERN AL OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND REACH OUR PLATEAU
COUNTIES AROUND 21Z. CONVECTION IS STARTING TO DEVELOP IN EASTERN
WEST TN AND NORTHERN MS, WHICH THE LATEST HRRR RUN IS PICKING UP
ON. IT SHOWS MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY CROSSING NORTHERN AL/GA AND OUR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES. THE NAM KEEPS THESE STORMS MAINLY SOUTH OF THE
TN/GA BORDER. MODEL SOUNDINGS THIS AFTERNOON ARE NOT PARTICULARLY
IMPRESSIVE FOR A SEVERE THREAT, WITH DEEP MOISUTRE, A HIGH WBZ,
WEAK UNI-DIRECTIONAL SHEAR, AND MLCAPE GENERALLY UNDER 1000 J/KG.
BOTTOM LINE - SOME STRONG WIND GUSTS OF 30-50 MPH CANNOT BE RULED
OUT FROM PRECIP LOADING UNDER HEAVIER DOWNPOURS, MAINLY SOUTH OF
I-40. TRAINING STORMS COULD POSE A LOCALIZED FLOODING THREAT.
THE PASSAGE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BRING
AN EN TO RAIN CHANCES IN OUR AREA AROUND MIDNIGHT. COOLER TEMPS AND
A DRIER AIR MASS WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA AND PROVIDE NICE WEATHER
FOR MID-JUNE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY, WITH LOWS IN THE 50S AND 60S AND
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL HAVE
A WARMING TREND, WITH TEMPS CLOSE TO OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL, ALONG
WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES AS GULF MOISTURE RETURNS. THE MODELS
ARE PICKING UP ON A TROPICAL LOW THAT DEVELOPS OFF THE TX COAST AND
TRACKS INTO THE SOUTHEAST, WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
NW. DETAILS ARE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN, BUT LATE NEXT WEEK COULD BE A WET
PERIOD IF IT PANS OUT.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 104 PM EDT SUN JUN 14 2026
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE THE AREA FROM WEST TO
EAST THROUGH THE EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. TEMPOS WILL
MENTION MVFR CONDITIONS WITH TS AT ALL SITES, AND SINCE CONFIDENCE
OF STORMS IS HIGHER AT CHA, SOME GUSTY WINDS WILL BE MENTIONED
THERE. OERNIGHT, THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH AND SHIFTS WINDS TO NW,
BUT REMAINING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY LEAD TO MVFR CIGS AT TYS AND
TRI UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 68 82 63 83 / 40 10 0 0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 65 81 60 82 / 80 0 0 0
OAK RIDGE, TN 64 81 58 82 / 60 0 0 0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 62 79 55 80 / 80 0 0 0
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DGS
AVIATION...DGS
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