238
FXUS64 KMRX 201138
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
738 AM EDT MON APR 20 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 730 AM EDT MON APR 20 2026
- SLIGHTLY ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY.
- PATCHY FROST POSSIBLE NORTHEAST TN AND SOUTHWEST VA TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING.
- DRY CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEK. INCREASING
CHANCES OF RAIN AND STORMS FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 257 AM EDT MON APR 20 2026
WE BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH THE BACKSIDE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH STILL
IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES AND WILL ALLOW A
DRY AIRMASS TO PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION. AS WE FURTHER DRY OUT FROM
SATURDAY NIGHT'S RAINFALL, COMBINED WITH THE LOW RH AND BREEZY WINDS
TODAY, SLIGHTLY ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE.
THE RISK WILL BE A LITTLE HIGHER ACROSS CHEROKEE AND CLAY COUNTY NC,
AND PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST TN AND SOUTHWEST VA. THESE AREAS RECEIVED
LESSER RAINFALL COMPARED TO THE REST OF OUR AREA. IT DOESN'T QUITE
LOOK LIKE RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA WILL BE MET TODAY BUT AN
ENHANCED FIRE DANGER STATEMENT WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR POTIONS OF
THE AREA. THE DAY SHIFT WILL COORDINATE WITH FORESTRY PARTNERS LATER
THIS MORNING TO DETERMINE ISSUANCE.
OTHERWISE, DRY CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS OUR AREA. A WEAK COLD FRONT
APPROACHES ON WEDNESDAY AND MAY BRING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS INTO
SOUTHWEST VA, BUT CHANCES ARE VERY LOW. BY THE END OF THE WEEK,
MODELS ARE SHOWING A DEEPENING TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. THIS
WILL BREAK DOWN OF RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND PUT OUR REGION WITHIN
ZONAL FLOW. THIS ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WILL OPEN THE DOOR FOR A SERIES
OF SYSTEMS FROM FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 730 AM EDT MON APR 20 2026
CLEAR AND CALM START THIS MORNING, THEN WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT
OF THE W OR NW WITH POSSIBLE GUSTS UP TO 20KT. MID TO HIGH CLOUDS
DURING THE DAY, FOLLOWED BY A RETURN TO CALM CONDITIONS DRIVEN BY
HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 75 47 81 53 / 0 0 0 0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 70 42 76 52 / 0 0 0 0
OAK RIDGE, TN 70 42 77 50 / 0 0 0 0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 62 34 72 47 / 10 0 0 0
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
CHEROKEE-CLAY.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...KS
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