035
FXUS64 KMRX 022303 AAA
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
703 PM EDT SAT MAY 2 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 701 PM EDT SAT MAY 2 2026
- A FREEZE WARNING AND FROST ADVISORY HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR
PORTIONS OF THE NWS MORRISTOWN FORECAST AREA FOR TONIGHT.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES CONTINUE ON SUNDAY, BUT A WARMING TREND THEN
BEGINS HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK.
- SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY OCCUR OVER THE PLATEAU THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. OTHERWISE THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL BE THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 115 PM EDT SAT MAY 2 2026
AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE REGION LATER
TODAY, WITH UPPER HEIGHTS AND H85 TEMPS SOME 2-3 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. REGIONAL RADAR
IMAGERY SHOWS SOME SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH OVER
SOUTHERN IL AND WESTERN KY THIS AFTERNOON. WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE
ACROSS THE MRX FORECAST AREA, AND THE TROUGH AXIS ARRIVING WELL
AFTER PEAK HEATING, THE ODDS OF RAINFALL IN OUR AREA SEEM LOW.
HOWEVER, I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS OVER
PARTS OF THE PLATEAU LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT, LEADING TO
LIGHT WINDS AND GOOD RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR
SOME FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN SHELTERED AREAS OF OUR VIRGINIA
COUNTIES, AS WELL AS SOME NEAR- FREEZING TEMPERATURES AND AREAS OF
FROST IN PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLATEAU, FAR NORTHEAST TN
COUNTIES, AND EVEN OUR EAST TN MOUNTAIN ZONES AND THE VALLEY AREAS
OF OUR NC COUNTIES. FREEZE WARNINGS AND FROST ADVISORIES HAVE
BEEN HOISTED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A TOUCH
WARMER ON SUN AND SUN NIGHT, THOUGH STILL COOLER THAN NORMAL.
FROST DOESN'T APPEAR TO BE A CONCERN FOR SUNDAY NIGHT.
BROAD CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW CONTINUES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT LOW
LEVEL FLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY SOUTHWESTERLY WITH TIME. AS SUCH,
WE SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES REBOUND BACK INTO THE 70S TO NEAR 80
BY MON AND TUE. A WEAK IMPULSE EMBEDDED IN THE WNW UPPER FLOW
LOOKS TO SPARK OFF SOME NOCTURNAL CONVECTION OVER SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. LOOKING AT DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE, THERE'S A MIXED BAG OF RAIN CHANCES. CURRENT NBM PLACES
SOME 20-40% RAIN CHANCES NORTH OF THE I-40 CORRIDOR DURING THE
DAYTIME HOURS ON MON, FAVORING OUR VA COUNTIES AND SOME OF OUR
NORTHERN TN MOUNTAIN AREAS FOR THE HIGHEST ODDS OF SEEING
RAINFALL. GIVEN THE PATTERN AND ORIENTATION OF THE LOW LEVEL JET
AND ASSOCIATED ISENTROPIC ASCENT, IT IS CERTAINLY PLAUSIBLE THAT
OUR NORTHERN AREAS COULD SEE SOME RAINFALL MONDAY. AM INCLINED TO
LEAVE THIS AS-IS PRIMARILY BECAUSE I DON'T HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE
IN EXACTLY WHERE THIS RAINFALL WILL OCCUR. IT COULD BE DISPLACED
FURTHER NORTH OR SOUTH THAN CURRENTLY ADVERTISED, BUT IT SEEMS
REASONABLE TO HAVE SOME RAIN CHANCES IN THERE.
A STRONGER SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO REINFORCE THE GREAT LAKES
REGION TROUGHING MID-WEEK. NBM CURRENTLY RAMPS UP POPS DURING THE
DAY WEDNESDAY BUT ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE REALLY SUGGESTS IT WILL BE
MORE OF A WEDNESDAY EVENING/OVERNIGHT RAINFALL EVENT.
NEVERTHELESS, THE LATEST NBM PROBABILITIES FOR 24 HOUR RAINFALL OF
1.0" OR GREATER HAVE INCREASED SINCE YESTERDAY AND NOW STAND AT
AROUND 60-70% FOR A LARGE CHUNK OF OUR CWA - HIGHEST OVER THE MOST
DROUGHT STRICKEN AREAS IN THE SOUTH. OTHER ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAS
SIMILAR ODDS, AND EVEN SOME DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE LIKE THE ECMWF-
AIFS SHOWS OVER 0.70" OF QPF ACROSS A LARGE SWATH OF THE CWA. IN
OTHER WORDS, IT LOOKS LIKE A GOOD RAIN EVENT IS ON THE HORIZON.
WILL ALSO BE WORTH KEEPING AN EYE ON THIS SYSTEM FOR STRONG/SEVERE
STORM CHANCES. STRONG SHEAR IS ALL BUT CERTAIN, BUT INSTABILITY
MAY BE A LIMITING FACTOR, ESPECIALLY IN THE EVENT OF A NOCTURNAL
PASSAGE. THERE WILL ALSO BE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LATE SEASON
MTN/FOOTHILL GUSTY WINDS WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY LLJ AND TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT. COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS END THE WEEK POST
FROPA.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 701 PM EDT SAT MAY 2 2026
A FEW LIGHT SPRINKLES MAY REACH THE TAF SITES IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS, BUT THIS SHOULD NOT CHANGE THE VFR CONDITIONS, WHICH ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIS THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 69 44 71 47 / 10 20 0 0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 65 42 68 47 / 10 10 0 10
OAK RIDGE, TN 66 40 68 45 / 20 20 0 20
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 62 35 64 42 / 10 10 0 10
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
CHEROKEE-CLAY.
TN...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-COCKE SMOKY
MOUNTAINS-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-MORGAN-NORTHWEST CARTER-SCOTT TN-
SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-
SULLIVAN-UNICOI-WASHINGTON TN.
FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
JOHNSON-SOUTHEAST CARTER.
VA...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LEE-
RUSSELL-SCOTT VA-WASHINGTON VA-WISE.
DISCUSSION...CD
AVIATION...DGS
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