244
FXUS64 KMRX 301815
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
215 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 214 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2026
- VERY WARM TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
- CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL INCREASE BY MIDWEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND, WHICH MAY BRING SOME RELIEF FROM THE NEAR-TERM
DROUGHT AND WILDFIRE CONDITIONS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 214 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2026
WE START THE PERIOD IN A WARM PATTERN WITH BROAD RIDGING ACROSS
THE REGION. THE WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WORK WEEK INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND, WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 15 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS MOST DAYS FROM TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY THROUGH TUESDAY, ALTHOUGH WITH THE INCREASE
IN MOISTURE MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME LIMITED MLCAPE AROUND OR LESS
THAN 500 J/KG TUESDAY, AND A FEW LOCATIONS MAY SEE A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. BY WEDNESDAY AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO THE
WESTERN PLAINS AS THE CORE OF THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS TO OUR EAST.
MODELS INDICATE THERE WILL BE A BIT MORE CONVECTIVE ENERGY TO WORK
WITH WEDNESDAY AS MLCAPE VALUES LIKELY REACH INTO THE 500 TO 1000
J/KG RANGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA, WITH A HIGHER CHANCE OF SEEING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL LIKELY SEE MORE OF THE SAME WITH ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS BOTH DAYS, WITH AN UPPER SHORT WAVE
LIKELY PUSHING POPS HIGHER FOR FRIDAY THAN THURSDAY.
A MORE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE REGION DURING THE WEEKEND.
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE PLAINS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND OHIO RIVER VALLEY DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA
SOMETIME AROUND THE SUNDAY TIME FRAME, ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE FORCING LOOKS BETTER WITH THIS SYSTEM AND THERE
IS THE POSSIBILITY OF IT BRINGING STRONGER STORMS TO OUR AREA.
HOWEVER, CURRENT LREF DATA HAS THE JOINT PROBABILITY FOR THE
COMBINATION OF GREATER THAN 250 J/KG OF EITHER MUCAPE OR SBCAPE WITH
30+KTS 0-500MB BULK SHEAR AT GENERALLY LESS THAN 10% ACROSS OUR AREA
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM, SO RIGHT NOW SEVERE STORM CHANCES DO NOT LOOK
HIGH. OF COURSE THIS WILL BEAR WATCHING AS WE GET CLOSER AND THE
DETAILS BECOME MORE CLEAR.
DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL BE MOVING IN MONDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 111 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE PERIOD ALL SITES. WINDS WILL
BE FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST GENERALLY AROUND 10KTS OR LESS
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS ESPECIALLY AT
TYS, THEN LIGHTER OVERNIGHT. MAY BE BORDERLINE FOR LLWS SEVERAL
HOURS TONIGHT, BUT RIGHT NOW IT DOES NOT LOOK PROBABLE ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 59 82 60 84 / 0 20 10 40
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 57 80 60 83 / 0 20 10 50
OAK RIDGE, TN 57 81 59 82 / 0 20 10 50
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 51 78 56 80 / 0 20 10 60
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...99
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