580
FXUS64 KMRX 061116
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
716 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 118 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2026
- WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
- PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE LIKELY. SOME FLOODING CONCERNS ARE
POSSIBLE GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING SHOWERS AND STORMS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WIDESPREAD FLOODING SEEMS UNLIKELY
THOUGH.
- A CONDITIONAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT EXISTS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING IF SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY CAN DEVELOP. IF
IT DOES, DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE, AND EVEN A LOW END
TORNADO RISK WILL BE PRESENT.
- SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BE GUSTY TODAY ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST
TENNESSEE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT
FOR THE SMOKY MOUNTAINS THROUGH 11 AM EDT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 118 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2026
IN THE UPPER LEVELS, A RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF. A TROUGH IS OVER
THE MIDWEST. NEARLY ZONAL FLOW OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL
BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY TODAY. A SURFACE LOW IS CURRENTLY NEAR
OH/PA WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWEST INTO TEXAS. THIS
BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTHWARD MOVING INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE
AND EAST KENTUCKY BY LATE THIS MORNING. THIS SLOW MOVING BOUNDARY
WILL BRING MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM EARLY
THIS MORNING THROUGH TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT OR SHORTLY AFTER. RAIN
WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT BUT THUNDER CHANCES WILL DECREASE THROUGH
THE NIGHT AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. THURSDAY, SHOWERS
WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION AS THE COLD FRONT REMAINS JUST TO
THE SOUTH IN THE MORNING HOURS. THURSDAY AFTERNOON SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE INCREASING IN THE EAST TENNESSEE MOUNTAINS
AND FOOTHILLS AS THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS. A WIND ADVISORY IS
IN EFFECT FOR THE SMOKY MOUNTAINS THROUGH 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING.
GUSTS UP TO 45-50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE SMOKY MOUNTAINS.
THROUGH EARLY MORNING:
CURRENTLY DEW POINTS ARE LOW IN THE 40S THROUGHOUT EAST TENNESSEE.
DEW POINTS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES. THE
COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY NEAR THE OHIO RIVER IN IN/IL/KY STRETCHING
BACK INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. STORM ACTIVITY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT IS CURRENTLY WEAKER THAN CAMS PREDICTED. VERY LITTLE
DEVELOPMENT OCCURRED IN ARKANSAS. THE LATEST HRRR RUN HAS A STRONG
LINE OF STORMS DEVELOPING NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER NEAR ARKANSAS
AND WEST TENNESSEE. THE HRRR HAS THIS LINE WEAKENING SIGNIFICANTLY AS
IT MOVES INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE. IN EAST TENNESSEE, SHOWER AND STORM
ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT WITH THE BEST CHANCES IN THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT SEVERE
STORMS ARE NOT LIKELY THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
TODAY:
DEEP LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO PUMP MOISTURE FROM THE
GULF INTO THE REGION. BY THIS AFTERNOON, PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
WILL REACH 1.7 INCHES IN THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. EXCEEDING THE 90TH
PERCENTILE WHICH IS AROUND 1.4 INCHES FOR MAY 6. MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF
HEAVY RAIN MAY LEAD TO SOME FLOODING ISSUES ESPECIALLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF I-40 WHERE RAIN AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 1 TO 2.5 INCHES.
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION HAS BEEN THE HARDEST HIT WITH
DROUGHT CONDITIONS. OVERALL, WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED BUT
MAYBE SOME POCKETS OF LOCALIZED FLOODING.
THE SEVERE THREAT FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING IS STILL
COMPLICATED. THE HRRR HAS STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE GA/TN BORDER. SOME OF THE OTHER CAMS HAVE A LINE OF STRONG
STORMS ALL THE WAY INTO THE CENTRAL TENNESSEE VALLEY. EFFECTIVE
SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE AROUND 50 KNOTS. INSTABILITY MAY BE A
LIMITING FACTOR WITH CLOUD COVER LINGERING ALL DAY BUT WITH CAPE
EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 500 J/KG AND DEW POINTS IN THE 60S SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY SOUTH OF I-40. A LOW END TORNADO
THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE IF STORMS ARE ABLE TO ORGANIZE WITH 0-1 KM
SHEAR EXPECTED TO BE NEAR 20 KNOTS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY:
IT LOOKS LIKE THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION AROUND
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT OR SHORTLY AFTER. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL
BE OVER BY MIDNIGHT. THE LOCALIZED FLOODING THREAT MAY LINGER INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BUT LATE INTO THE NIGHT THE THREAT WILL DECREASE
AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN.
SHOWERS WILL LINGER ON THURSDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT IS STILL SLOW
TO MOVE AND WILL LIKELY BE JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION. THE FLOODING
THREAT WILL BE OVER BY MORNING WITH A MUCH DRIER AIR MASS MOVING IN
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 50S. THUNDER IS ALSO NOT EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY. BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON, A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY KICKING THE FRONT OUT BUT KICKING OFF ANOTHER ROUND
OF SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT.
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY:
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY LOOK MOSTLY DRY WITH WEAK TROUGHING AND HIGH
PRESSURE. ANOTHER SYSTEM IS LIKELY SUN/MON AND MAY HAVE SOME GOOD
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 70S.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 650 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2026
WILL SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AROUND AT TIMES THROUGH THE
PERIOD, AND WILL TRY TO TIME BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDER WITH PROB30
GROUPS. VFR CONDITIONS TO START, BUT WILL SEE MORE MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS AS THE PRECIPITATION INCREASES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 75 59 73 50 / 100 100 10 0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 74 56 69 46 / 100 90 30 0
OAK RIDGE, TN 72 54 70 45 / 100 90 10 0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 72 53 65 42 / 100 100 50 0
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR BLOUNT SMOKY
MOUNTAINS-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MCD
AVIATION...99
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