638
FXUS64 KMRX 111108
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
708 AM EDT SAT APR 11 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 703 AM EDT SAT APR 11 2026
- A WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND, WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK. RECORD HIGHS ARE POSSIBLE
NEXT WEEK.
- DRY WEATHER IS LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH NEXT WEEK, WORSENING
DROUGHT AND FIRE CONDITIONS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 232 AM EDT SAT APR 11 2026
THE FORECAST CAN BE CHARACTERIZED BY SE RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE EVENTUALLY MOVING OFF OF THE COAST. WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL
PRIMARILY ROUND THE TOP OF THE RIDGE, KEEPING OUR AREA FROM SEEING
MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL INTO THE COMING WEEK. WITH HIGH PRESSURE
EVENTUALLY SITUATED TO OUR EAST, SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL SEND IN MUCH
WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE COMING DAYS. SOME MAY SEE THEIR FIRST 90
DEGREE READING OF THE YEAR/SEASON. A TABLE OF DAILY RECORD HIGHS
WILL BE AT THE BOTTOM OF THIS DISCUSSION, AS RECORDS COULD BE TIED
OR BROKEN.
THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH PERSISTENT DRY CONDITONS SINCE EASTER, FOR
MOST, WILL BE AN INCREASING THREAT FOR FIRE POTENTIAL; WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING AND NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE RETURN.
MINIMUM RHS WILL MOSTLY RANGE IN THE 20 AND 30 PERCENT RANGE. SW
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND MOST LIKELY
REMAIN IN THAT GENERAL DIRECTION MUCH OF THE WEEK. SOUTHWEST WINDS
TEND TO BE A FAVORABLE DIRECTION WITH A FUNNELING-LIKE EFFECT UP
VALLEY, THUS, CREATING STRONGER GUSTS. SPC FIRE HAS PLACED WESTERN
PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA UNDER A DAY 3 MARGINAL RISK FOR INCREASED
WINDS, TEMPS, LOW RH, PAIRED WITH DRY FUELS CONCURRENT FOR AT LEAST
3 HOURS. EVEN THOUGH WINDS WILL BE STRONGER ON MONDAY, INCREASED
CLOUD COVER MAY KEEP RHS FROM GETTING MUCH LOWER.
ANY CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION AT ALL? A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DRAPE
ACROSS THE AREA LATER TODAY. IT'S POSSIBLE A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPS NEAR THE NORTHERN PLATEAU INTO SOUTHWEST VA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. CAMS AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS DEPICT THIS CHANCE,
ALTHOUGH IT'LL BE LOW. HREF PROBS SHOW NO MORE THAN A 30 PERCENT
CHANCE OF A TENTH OF AN INCH OR GREATER. THE SAME AREAS MAY BE
BRUSHED BY ADDITIONAL CHANCES MONDAY, POSSIBLY TUESDAY. THE NEXT
BEST CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD RAIN FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA MOST
LIKELY WON'T BE UNTIL THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
DAILY RECORD HIGH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
DATE CHATTANOOGA KNOXVILLE TRI-CITIES OAK RIDGE
04-11 87(2001) 86(2001) 86(2001) 85(2001)
04-12 89(1887) 87(1930) 84(1945) 87(1948)
04-13 88(1887) 89(1887) 86(1981) 86(2017)
04-14 87(2010) 86(1887) 85(1938) 88(2017)
04-15 87(2006) 87(1936) 85(1945) 86(2024)
04-16 89(2002) 87(1896) 87(2002) 88(2002)
04-17 91(1955) 90(1896) 85(2002) 88(1955)
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 703 AM EDT SAT APR 11 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS FOR THE PERIOD. SOME MID TO HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE ADVECTED INTO THE REGION WITH A MOISTURE STARVED
COLD FRONT MEANDERING AROUND THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. A LOW CHANCE
OF A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY NEAR TRI/TYS,
BUT THE DRY LOW-LEVELS RESULT IN TOO LOW OF CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE
ANY PRECIP MENTIONS AT THIS TIME. VIRGA SEEMS LIKE THE MOST LIKELY
SCENARIO.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 85 56 86 61 / 10 0 0 0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 81 54 85 62 / 10 0 0 0
OAK RIDGE, TN 82 54 84 60 / 10 0 0 0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 77 51 82 57 / 10 0 0 0
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KS
AVIATION...KRS
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