392
FXUS64 KMRX 072314 AAA
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
714 PM EDT MON SEP 7 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 712 PM EDT MON SEP 7 2026
- SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH SCATTERED
TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
- TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 230 PM EDT MON SEP 7 2026
AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH WILL ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
PRIMARILY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-40. LATEST MESOANALYSIS AND MODEL
DERIVED SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MLCAPE WILL BE LIMITED TO AROUND 1000
J/KG. WHILE LAPSE RATES AND SHEAR WILL BE POOR, DCAPE NEAR 1000 J/KG
COULD CONTRIBUTE TO LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS UNDER ANY ACTIVITY THAT
BECOMES TALL ENOUGH TO PRODUCE LIGHTNING.
ACTIVITY WILL WANE INTO THE OVERNIGHT AND LEAD TO A COUPLE OF DRY
DAYS AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TAKES CONTROL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
THE MAIN THING TO NOTE WILL BE A SLIGHT WARMING TREND AS H5 HEIGHTS
OF 596-598DAM BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND A TROUGH AXIS DEPARTING
THE EASTERN SEABOARD. WHILE NOT EXPECTING RECORD BREAKING HEAT LIKE
OUR LAST HEAT WAVE, ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES PERSIST.
BY THURSDAY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED JET IS EXPECTED TO
DIP INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY REGION. AN
ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE AN AXIS OF FORCING LEADING TO A
RETURN OF SHOWERS AND STORMS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY.
LACK OF SHEAR LOCALLY SUGGEST LIMITED CHANCES OF ANY STRONG TO
SEVERE WEATHER. THE MAIN CONCERN MAY BE SOME TRAINING
PRECIP/ISOLATED FLOODING DUE TO DEEP-LAYER FLOW BEING NEARLY
PARALLEL TO THE FRONT. AN ADDITIONAL WEAK SHORTWAVE MAY CONTINUE
SCATTERED TO RAIN CHANCES SATURDAY, WITH DECREASING CHANCES SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 712 PM EDT MON SEP 7 2026
SOME SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED NEAR TYS, WITH LIGHT RAIN BEING
REPORTED AT THE OBS SITE. THE QUESTION IS WHETHER THIS SMALL
AMOUNT OF RAIN WILL BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE FOG LATER TONIGHT. RIGHT
NOW, THAT CHANCE SEEMS TOO LOW TO WARRANT ANY VIS REDUCTIONS IN
THE 00Z TAFS, BUT LATER TAFS MAY CHANGE DEPENDING ON TEMP/DEWPOINT
TRENDS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 70 92 69 94 / 0 0 0 0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 67 90 66 91 / 10 0 0 0
OAK RIDGE, TN 66 89 66 90 / 10 0 0 0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 61 86 60 87 / 0 0 0 0
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KRS
AVIATION...DGS
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