303
FXUS64 KMRX 131842
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
142 PM EST FRI FEB 13 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 135 PM EST FRI FEB 13 2026
- WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD +0.50" TOTALS, WITH GREATER THAN 50%
CHANCE FOR AN INCH OR MORE OF RAINFALL PRIMARILY OVER THE
NORTHERN PLATEAU AREA.
- DRY AND SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 135 PM EST FRI FEB 13 2026
AN UPPER LOW WILL EJECT EASTWARD FROM CENTRAL TEXAS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, MOVING TO CENTRAL GEORGIA BY SUNDAY
EVENING. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM, WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO
SPREAD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN
REGION IN GENERAL, LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THERE
REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXPECTED RAINFALL AMOUNTS BUT
THERE IS PRETTY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SEEING AT LEAST 0.50" ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CWA, WITH EVEN A 50-60 PERCENT CHANCE OF SEEING 1" OF
RAIN OR MORE PRIMARILY NORTH OF I-40 AND WEST OF I-75. THIS IS
MUCH NEEDED GIVEN THE ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
REGION, AND THE INTRODUCTION OF SOME D3 DROUGHT CATEGORIES IN OUR
SOUTHERN TN COUNTIES THIS WEEK.
ADDITIONALLY, A BELT OF STRONGER H85 WINDS WILL EXTEND NORTH INTO
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH ROUGHLY MIDDAY
SUNDAY. CROSS SECTIONS SHOW SOME DOWNWARD MOTIONS IN THE LEE OF
THE TN MOUNTAINS, BUT THERE'S NO STRONG CROSS-MOUNTAIN PRESSURE
GRADIENTS IN PLACE. AS SUCH, IT DOESN'T SEEM LIKE ANY WIND
HEADLINES ARE WARRANTED RIGHT NOW. IT WILL BE BREEZY IN THE
FOOTHILLS, AND EVEN THE SOUTHERN PLATEAU AREAS, BUT RIGHT NOW IT
DOESN'T APPEAR THAT WE'LL GET THAT DOWNWARD ACCELERATION LIKE WE
WOULD IN A TRUE MOUNTAIN WAVE WIND EVENT AND THAT THE SPEEDS WILL
BE LOW ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE PUTTING UP ANY HEADLINES AT THE MOMENT.
OTHERWISE, THIS SYSTEM MOVES OFF THE SOUTHEAST COASTLINE BY
SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING, GIVING WAY TO PERSISTENT RIDGING THAT
BUILDS OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH THROUGH AT LEAST
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. INDICATIONS ARE WE'LL SEE DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK TO BE HONEST. AND TEMPERATURES
WILL RESPOND IN KIND, CLIMBING TO 8-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY
TUE/WED.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 100 PM EST FRI FEB 13 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH AND MID CLOUDS
WILL BE IN THE INCREASE TOMORROW, BUT IT WILL BE LATE IN THE
PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT, GENERALLY LESS THAN 5-7KT, BUT WILL
GRADUALLY PICK UP A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION IN THE LAST FEW HOURS OF
THE PERIOD ESPECIALLY AT KCHA.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 34 61 47 58 / 0 10 80 100
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 32 59 44 53 / 0 10 80 100
OAK RIDGE, TN 32 58 44 53 / 0 10 80 100
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 27 57 40 50 / 0 0 70 100
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CD
AVIATION...CD
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