749
FXUS64 KMRX 051111 AAA
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
611 AM EST THU MAR 5 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 610 AM EST THU MAR 5 2026
- HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR ABOVE DAILY RECORDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY
THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD.
- SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL RETURN FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH THE BEST COVERAGE BEING ON SATURDAY. CHANCES FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS STILL REMAIN LIMITED IN OUR AREA.
- ANOTHER DYNAMIC SYSTEM IS EXPECTED EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK WITH
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AGAIN. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WORTH
WATCHING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 124 AM EST THU MAR 5 2026
CURRENTLY, A WEAK SYSTEM/SHORTWAVE IS TRACKING TO OUR NORTHWEST WITH
SHOWERS AND STORMS ONGOING. LOCALLY, THIS HAS JUST LED TO SOUTHERLY
FLOW AND CONTINUALLY MILDER TEMPERATURES. THIS SYSTEM WILL TRACK OFF
TO THE EAST WITH MOISTURE SUFFICIENT FOR LOW-END RAIN CHANCES IN THE
NORTH LATER TODAY AND INTO THE EVENING. BUT THE BIGGER STORY WILL BE
CONTINUATION OF THE RECENT WARMING TREND AS SOUTHERLY FLOW AND
HEIGHT RISES ARE EXPECTED. BY FRIDAY, A DEEPER TROUGH AND STRONGER
LOW WILL BE NOTED OVER THE GREAT PLAINS WITH CONTINUED SOUTHERLY
FLOW AND HEIGHT RISES ACROSS THE REGION. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED TO MAYBE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS ON FRIDAY. BUT SATURDAY IS WHEN BETTER COVERAGE IS EXPECTED
AS DIVERGENCE FROM THE UPPER JET APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. OVERALL,
THE LATEST DATA SUGGESTS MLCAPE TO BE AROUND 500 TO 1,000 J/KG BUT
WITH SHEAR OF 30 KTS OR LESS. THIS COULD SUPPORT AN ISOLATED
STRONGER STORM, BUT THE OVERALL FORCING AND 850MB FLOW REMAIN
NOTABLY WEAKER THAN PLACES TO THE NORTH. UNSEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES REMAIN A BIG FOCUS WITH SATURDAY POTENTIALLY LIMITING
DAYTIME HEATING DUE TO SHOWER AND STORM COVERAGE.
DAILY RECORD HIGH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
DATE CHATTANOOGA KNOXVILLE TRI-CITIES OAK RIDGE
03-05 80(1955) 78(2022) 77(2022) 78(1955)
03-06 82(1956) 79(2022) 79(2022) 81(1956)
03-07 82(2000) 80(1983) 79(1956) 80(1956)
BY SUNDAY, THE BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION, KEEPING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE
AREA BUT LIKELY FOCUSED FURTHER SOUTH. THIS WILL ALSO MODERATE
TEMPERATURES DOWN FROM THE MORE ABNORMAL HIGHS OF THE PREVIOUS DAYS.
HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK, ANOTHER TROUGH WILL DEEPEN AND TRACK TO OUR
NORTH AND WEST, LEADING TO ANOTHER INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES,
FOLLOWED BY A RETURN OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. CURRENTLY, THE BETTER
FORCING AND DYNAMICS STILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH AND WEST BUT NOT AS
FAR AWAY AS WITH THE FIRST SYSTEM. THERE MAY BE A SLIGHTLY HIGHER
CHANCE OF STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS, BUT MODEL GUIDANCE IS HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. THE BOUNDARY WILL BE PULLED BACK FURTHER
NORTH AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM, BUT IT REMAINS UNCERTAIN HOW QUICKLY THE
FRONT WILL BE PULLED NORTH. REGARDLESS, MORE RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY ON THESE DAYS:
DATE CHATTANOOGA KNOXVILLE TRI-CITIES OAK RIDGE
03-09 82(2009) 82(1925) 79(2016) 80(1974)
03-10 81(2009) 81(2016) 82(2016) 81(2016)
03-11 81(2006) 81(2006) 78(2006) 80(1990)
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 610 AM EST THU MAR 5 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL
INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY AT TYS THIS AFTERNOON, POSSIBLY AT TRI
AND CHA AS WELL BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOWER AT THOSE SITES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 81 58 83 63 / 10 10 30 30
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 78 57 82 63 / 10 10 20 20
OAK RIDGE, TN 78 57 82 63 / 10 10 20 20
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 75 53 79 57 / 10 10 20 10
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION...DGS
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