221  
FXUS64 KMRX 282321  
AFDMRX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN  
721 PM EDT THU MAR 28 2024  
   
..NEW AVIATION
 
 
   
SHORT TERM
 
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)  
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT THU MAR 28 2024  
 
KEY MESSAGES:  
 
1. TONIGHT, TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE  
AREA WITH PATCHY TO AREAS OF FROST DEVELOPMENT.  
 
2. DRY AIR AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.  
 
THIS AFTERNOON, A DEEP UPPER TROUGH IS JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE  
TENNESSEE VALLEY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE WEST  
SOUTHWEST. A COLD FRONT IS JUST OFF THE EAST COAST, WHICH HAS  
CONTINUED NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS OVER THE REGION WITH GUSTY  
WINDS ACROSS THE EASTERN TENNESSEE VALLEY AT TIMES DUE TO THE  
PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM EAST TO WEST. COLD AIR ADVECTION TODAY HAS  
KEPT TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. DEEP MIXING HAVE  
PRODUCED LOW HUMIDITIES OF 25 TO 30 PERCENT ALONG WITH WIND GUSTS  
TO 20 TO 30 MPH. THIS IS DRYING OUT FUELS. THE FORECAST FOR  
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. WINDS WILL DECREASE AS THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL  
TROUGH SHIFTS EAST AND SURFACE HIGH CENTER TO THE SOUTHWEST MOVES  
CLOSER TO THE FORECAST AREA. WINDS WILL STAY UP FOR AWHILE BUT  
SHOULD DROP LATER TONIGHT. WITH THE DRY AIR LOWS SHOULD DROP INTO  
THE MID TO UPPER 30S. PATCHY TO WIDESPREAD FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE  
SO A FROST ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR AREAS IN THE GROWING  
SEASON.  
 
ON FRIDAY THE MORNING WILL START COLD WITH FROST IN SHELTERED  
VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SEVERAL DEGREES WITH SOUTHWEST  
WINDS DEVELOPING BY LATE MORNING. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD  
INTO THE AREA. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON AND RELATIVE  
HUMIDITIES SHOULD AGAIN BE BE 25 TO 30 PERCENT. A FIRE DANGER  
STATEMENT MAY NEED TO BE ISSUED AS SOIL MOISTURES WILL BE LOWER.  
WILL HAVE NIGHT SHIFT LOOK AT NEW DATA TO DECIDE.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM
 
 
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)  
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT THU MAR 28 2024  
 
KEY MESSAGES:  
 
1. MUCH WARMER THIS WEEKEND. CHANCES OF RAIN MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST  
VIRGINIA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.  
 
2. AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER AND WARMER  
TEMPERATURES FOR NEXT WEEK, ESPECIALLY THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ON  
TUESDAY.  
 
3. COOLER TEMPERATURES BEHIND A COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY OF  
NEXT WEEK.  
 
DISCUSSION:  
 
WEAK UPPER RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE TO START THE WEEKEND PERIOD WITH  
A SURFACE HIGH MOVING OFF TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST. AN AREA OF LOW  
PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT  
LAKES SATURDAY. A FRONT WILL BECOME STALLED TO OUR NORTH ACROSS THE  
OHIO VALLEY. AS THIS TIME, THE FRONT LOOKS TO REMAIN FAR ENOUGH  
NORTH TO KEEP POPS NORTH OF MUCH OF THE AREA, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF  
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL ADVECT A WARMER  
AIRMASS THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WELL WITH HIGHS BACK  
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70'S BY SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.  
 
THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM DEVELOPS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SHORTWAVE  
TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE ROCKIES. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL INDUCE AN AREA  
OF LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL LIFT INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY TUESDAY. THE  
COLD FRONT DOESN'T MAKE ITS ENTRANCE INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY UNTIL  
TUESDAY. THERE ARE SOME QUESTIONS ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL  
PASSAGE WHICH MAY HAVE AN IMPACT ON INSTABILITY, BUT THERE WILL BE  
SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED  
THUNDERSTORMS. THE SPC HAS INCLUDED PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA  
INTO A DAY 6 OUTLOOK WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE SYNOPTIC  
PATTERN. JUST BASED ON THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND TIME OF YEAR, THIS  
SYSTEM WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY FOR SEVERE WEATHER  
POTENTIAL EARLY NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE REGION.  
 
BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, NORTHWEST  
WINDS WILL BRING IN A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP  
BELOW NORMAL FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.  
RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY POST FRONTAL PASSAGE AS  
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INCREASES. NBM SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON  
THIS POTENTIAL. THE AREA DRIES OUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS  
HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS FROM THE WEST.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
(00Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 715 PM EDT THU MAR 28 2024  
 
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS  
OVERNIGHT. WINDS SHIFT OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST TOMORROW. TRI WILL BE  
GUSTY FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH GUSTS  
UP TO 22KTS.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 40 71 47 77 / 0 0 0 0  
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 37 68 47 74 / 0 0 0 0  
OAK RIDGE, TN 37 69 45 76 / 0 0 0 0  
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 34 66 42 71 / 0 0 0 10  
 

 
   
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NC...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.  
 
TN...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM EDT /2 AM CDT/ TO 9 AM EDT /8 AM CDT/  
FRIDAY FOR ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-EAST  
POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-KNOX-LOUDON-  
MCMINN-MEIGS-MORGAN-NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST BLOUNT-NORTHWEST  
CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-  
RHEA-ROANE-SCOTT TN-SULLIVAN-UNION-WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.  
 
VA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR LEE-SCOTT VA-  
WASHINGTON VA.  
 

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...TD  
LONG TERM....DIEGAN  
AVIATION...  
 
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