859
FXUS64 KMRX 110523
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
123 AM EDT MON MAY 11 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 120 AM EDT MON MAY 11 2026
- INCREASING RAIN CHANCES TODAY ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT.
OVERALL, LIGHT ACCUMULATION NORTH OF THE SOUTHERN VALLEY AND
PLATEAU, AND SW NORTH CAROLINA.
- A 2ND COLD FRONT AROUND WEDNESDAY WILL BRING THE NEXT POTENTIAL
ROUND OF LIGHT RAINFALL, PRIMARILY TO OUR NORTHERN AREAS.
- THE HEAT GETS TURNED UP NEXT WEEKEND WITH UPPER 80S TO LOW 90
DEGREE HIGHS IN THE VALLEY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 120 AM EDT MON MAY 11 2026
NOT MUCH RAIN HAD FALLEN YESTERDAY UP UNTIL THIS VERY TIME. A FEW
SITES RECORDED A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH FROM AFTERNOON SHOWERS.
THE RAIN POTENTIAL WITH THE ANTICIPATED COLD FRONT HAS SHIFTED LATER
AND CONTINUES TO CHANGE ON AMOUNTS. TOTALS HAVE INCREASED FOR SOME,
WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF JUST OVER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.
UNFORTUNATELY, THE SOUTHERN PLATEAU, VALLEY, AND SW NC MAY NOT SEE
ANYTHING. ACCORDING TO SURFACE ANALYSIS, THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY
SLICES DIAGONALLY ACROSS OUR AREA. THE MAJORITY OF THE RAIN WILL
FALL EARLY IN THE DAY WITH LOW CHANCES FOR THUNDER. UPSLOPE INDUCED
TERRAIN SHOWERS MAY FIRE SOME THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE THE COMPLETE EXIT OF THE SYSTEM. HREF PROBS DOESN'T EVEN
DEPICT CAPE OF 500 J/KG OR ABOVE.
THE MUCH DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT DOESN'T ARRIVE UNTIL LATER IN
THE DAY TODAY. TOMORROW MORNING LOWS ARE CONTINUING TO SHOW
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY ABOVE 40 DEGREES. WIND OVER THE HIGHEST
TERRAIN MAY PREVENT FULL DECOUPLING. THAT SAID, THE FROST POTENTIAL
IS VERY LOW FROM WHERE IT WAS 48 HOURS AGO. TOMORROW AND WEDNESDAY
WE WARM A LITTLE COMPARED TO TODAY, BUT ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
SWEEP THROUGH FROM THE NORTH. YET ANOTHER SHOT AT LIGHT
PRECIPITATION SOMETIME WEDNESDAY FROM THIS NEXT SYSTEM. THE CORE OF
THE MOISTURE APPEARS IT'LL STAY WELL NORTH. CURRENTLY, QPF TOTALS
MUCH LIGHTER COMPARED TO TODAY'S SYSTEM, WITH AGAIN, FAVORABILITY
FOR THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES AGAIN THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING,
WHERE IT APPEARS 40S FOR LOWS JUST DON'T WANT TO LEAVE US QUITE YET.
ONLY A VERY SHORT LIVED DIP, BECAUSE WE WILL TURN A HARD CORNER
GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. THE LOCKED IN TROUGHING WILL FINALLY SHIFT
EAST AND BE REPLACED BY RIDGING FROM THE WEST. LOW 90S ARE POSSIBLE
FOR THE SOUTHERN VALLEY NEXT SUNDAY. TRUE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
ALSO RETURN, WHERE DEW POINTS MAY EVEN CRACK INTO THE 60S. HOT AND
HUMID MAY ACTUALLY FINALLY ARRIVE. ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE A WEEK BEYOND THE FORECAST, ACCORDING TO THE
CPC. AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION IS CONCERNED, MOSTLY DRY WEATHER CAN BE
EXPECTED THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH POSSIBLE
OUTSIDE CHANCES OF DIURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 120 AM EDT MON MAY 11 2026
RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO TYS AND TRI IN THE 10-14Z
TIME FRAME, AND EXIT AROUND 18Z. TYS SHOULD STAY MAINLY VFR WITH
THE LIGHT RAIN, BUT A BRIEF DROP TO MVFR VIS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
TRI WILL LIKELY HAVE SOME HEAVIER SHOWERS THAT PRODUCE MVFR
VIS/CIGS FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING. CHA IS EXPECTED TO STAY
DRY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A N DIRECTION EARLY THIS MORNING BEHIND
A COLD FRONT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 76 50 80 56 / 30 0 0 0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 73 46 77 54 / 60 0 0 0
OAK RIDGE, TN 73 45 77 52 / 50 0 0 0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 68 41 73 49 / 60 0 0 0
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KS
AVIATION...DGS
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