843
FXUS64 KOHX 070514
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1214 AM CDT SUN JUN 7 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1208 AM CDT SUN JUN 7 2026
- RAIN AND STORM CHANCES RETURN ON SUNDAY AND EXTEND INTO NEXT
WEEK. LOW CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
- EXPECT HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP AS PWATS REACH
NEAR RECORD TERRITORY SUNDAY THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK.
- INCREASING TREND WITH TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY THROUGH NEXT
WEEK. HEAT INDICES REACH THE 90S EARLY WEEK AND EVEN NEAR 100 BY
MID WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1044 PM CDT SAT JUN 6 2026
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE STATE THIS EVENING, WITH MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES FORECASTED AND LOWS ON THE WARMER SIDE IN THE MID 60S
TO NEAR 70 DEGREES. SUNDAY WILL BRING ON THE START OF A WETTER
PATTERN AS OUR HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OUT TO SEA AND A SURFACE
BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER TENNESSEE WITH A DECENT TROUGH
TO OUR WEST IN THE MIDWEST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE DAY STARTING AROUND MID-MORNING. CONVECTION WILL BE MORE
ON THE SCATTERED SIDE, AND WE'RE NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE WEATHER AT
THIS TIME. IF THERE IS ANY CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM, THE
BEST AREA CONTINUES TO APPEAR TO BE WEST OF I-65 IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. THE ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT HAS DECREASED IN GUIDANCE,
SO MONDAY SHOULD LOOK FAIRLY SIMILAR TO SUNDAY. AMPLE MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO PLENTY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ONCE AGAIN, THE SEVERE THREAT IS LOW, BUT AN
ISOLATED STRONG STORM COULD OCCUR. MAIN HAZARDS BOTH SUNDAY AND
MONDAY ARE GUSTY WINDS, LIGHTNING, AND HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY
STRONGER STORMS, BUT PWATS ARE DECENTLY HIGH IN SOUNDINGS AND
FORECAST SOUNDINGS, SHOWING HOW MOIST THE ENVIRONMENT IS.
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL BE LOWER THAN TODAY DUE TO CLOUD COVER,
BUT WE WILL STILL MAKE IT INTO THE 80S. MONDAY WILL BE SIMILAR IN
WARMTH, WITH AREAS AROUND THE TN RIVER BEING WARMEST.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1044 PM CDT SAT JUN 6 2026
EVEN THOUGH WE WON'T SEE ANY ORGANIZED SYSTEMS AFTER MONDAY, DAYTIME
CONVECTION WILL BE IN FULL SWING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. SO
SOME SCATTERED/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE HOTTEST PARTS OF
THE DAY CAN BE EXPECTED EVEN AS A RIDGE REBUILDS TO OUR WEST ON
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE HIGHER SIDE, AND THE
MOISTURE WILL KEEP ON COMING ALOFT, KEEPING OUR DEWPOINTS MOIST. AS
THE RIDGE DEEPENS ITS GRIP ON OUR AREA, EXPECT SOME 90 DEGREE
TEMPERATURES DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. REMEMBER TO STAY
HYDRATED AND TAKE PLENTY OF BREAKS IN THE AC, SHADE, OR THE POOL IF
YOU HAVE SOME OUTDOOR PLANS!
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1208 AM CDT SUN JUN 7 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH SCT
TO BKN HIGH CLOUDS. RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
AFTER 15Z WITH ACTIVITY BECOMING SCATTERED IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. UNDERNEATH HEAVY SHOWERS OR STORMS, IMPACTS WILL
INCLUDE LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAIN WHICH MAY CAUSE REDUCED
VISIBILITY. CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MVFR
CIGS DEVELOPING AFTER 18Z BEFORE DROPPING TO IFR AFTER 00Z.
OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS, WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE SOUTHERLY AT
5-10 KNOTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 85 70 85 70 / 80 60 80 70
CLARKSVILLE 86 71 86 71 / 50 60 80 70
CROSSVILLE 81 65 76 65 / 50 70 90 60
COLUMBIA 81 70 84 70 / 80 60 70 60
COOKEVILLE 83 68 79 67 / 50 70 80 70
JAMESTOWN 85 65 78 65 / 20 60 90 50
LAWRENCEBURG 79 69 82 69 / 90 60 70 60
MURFREESBORO 83 70 84 70 / 80 60 80 70
WAVERLY 83 71 86 71 / 70 60 70 70
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...HOLLEY
LONG TERM....HOLLEY
AVIATION.....CLEMENTS
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