551
FXUS64 KOHX 261108
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
608 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 608 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2026
- LOW TO MEDIUM SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN LATE
MORNING TODAY INTO THURSDAY. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR A COUPLE
OF STRONG STORMS, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-40 AND EAST OF I-65.
- MAIN CONCERN WILL BE GUSTY WINDS WITH ANY STORMS TODAY.
- HOT AND DRY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 518 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2026
HAD TO MAKE A COUPLE ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS FOR TODAY BASED ON
CURRENT CAM DEPICTIONS. THIS REVOLVES AROUND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT AS EARLY AS LATE THIS MORNING ALONG THE TN RIVER WITH
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT INTO THE AFTERNOON. MAIN AREA OF CONCERN WILL
BE SOUTH OF I-40 AND EAST OF I-65 FOR GUSTY WINDS AND, OF COURSE,
HEAVY RAINFALL. NOT EVERYONE WILL SEE RAIN TODAY, SO IF YOU HAVE
OUTDOOR PLANS, JUST KEEP AN EYE TO THE SKY.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1050 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HAS SLID OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST BUT IT WILL
CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER FOR THE EARLY PART OF WEDNESDAY.
WE WILL START THE DAY OUT WITH THE LOWER HUMIDITY BUT
UNFORTUNATELY THE HUMIDITY WILL BE RETURNING BY THE AFTERNOON WITH
DEW POINTS PUSHING INTO THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. A SHORT WAVE
WILL SPIN AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SET UP OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION AND THAT WILL BRING THE RETURN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW.
THIS SHORT WAVE WILL ALSO BRING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATE
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON MAINLY TO THE WEST OF I-65. BULK SHEAR
NEAR THE TN RIVER WILL BE 25 KNOTS FALLING OFF TO AROUND 15 KNOTS
AS YOU APPROACH NASHVILLE. AFTERNOON CAPE WILL MAKE IT ABOVE 1000
J/KG WITH OVERALL POOR LAPSE RATES. THIS WILL KEEP THE SEVERE
THREAT LOW BUT CAN'T RULE OUT GUSTY WINDS WITH ANY MORE DEVELOPED
STORMS NEAR THE TN RIVER. HIGHS WILL PUSH INTO THE UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE GREAT LAKES WILL THEN PUSH
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT SOUTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS
WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SHEAR WILL BE UNDER 15 KNOTS AND CAPE WILL BE
UNDER 500 J/KG WITH MARGINAL FORCING. THIS WILL KEEP THE SEVERE
THREAT NEAR ZERO. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS WE REMAIN IN A TROUGHING
PATTERN. SHEAR WILL BE NEAR 20 KNOTS WITH AROUND 1000 J/KG BUT
FORCING WILL BE MARGINAL AT BEST. THIS WILL KEEP THE SEVERE THREAT
LOW. A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER OVERNIGHT THURSDAY OVER THE
PLATEAU, OTHERWISE DRY.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1050 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2026
LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL START TO PUSH EAST. THIS WILL BRING THE
RETURN OF DRY WEATHER. HIGHS WILL STAY IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD EAST
EARLY NEXT WEEK AND THAT WILL WARM HIGHS INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION INTO THE MIDDLE
PART OF NEXT WEEK WITH CONDITIONS REMAINING HOT AND OVERALL DRY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 608 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2026
VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THIS TAF CYCLE WITH LIGHT SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS. HAVE INTRODUCED LOWER CATS FOR VIS ISSUES AT
CKV/SRB/CSV THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE DAYBREAK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 92 69 91 66 / 20 20 50 20
CLARKSVILLE 91 69 90 65 / 10 30 30 10
CROSSVILLE 86 66 85 64 / 10 10 50 40
COLUMBIA 92 70 92 68 / 40 20 50 20
COOKEVILLE 88 68 87 66 / 10 10 50 30
JAMESTOWN 86 67 86 65 / 10 10 50 40
LAWRENCEBURG 90 69 90 67 / 40 20 50 20
MURFREESBORO 93 70 92 68 / 20 20 50 20
WAVERLY 90 70 90 65 / 20 20 20 10
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE.......UNGER
SHORT TERM...MUELLER
LONG TERM....MUELLER
AVIATION.....UNGER
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