444
FXUS64 KOHX 091128
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
528 AM CST MON FEB 9 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 527 AM CST MON FEB 9 2026
- WARM MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH HIGHS REACHING 15 TO 20 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.
- MEDIUM TO HIGH RAIN CHANCES LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
- LOW RAIN CHANCES RETURN BY FRIDAY, BUILDING TO HIGH CHANCES FOR
THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1010 PM CST SUN FEB 8 2026
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, MIDDLE TN WILL ENJOY MUCH WARMER
WEATHER. WE WILL BE SITTING BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST
COAST AND A DEVELOPING FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE PLAINS, RESULTING
IN SOUTH SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL WINDS. AT THE SAME TIME, HEIGHTS
WILL RISE AS A RIDGE FROM THE PLAINS PUSHES EAST TO THE TN VALLEY.
THE LATEST FORECAST SHOWS 60S FOR HIGHS MONDAY AND UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S FOR TUESDAY. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE SEASONALLY
MILD 40S.
THE FRONTAL SYSTEM FROM THE PLAINS WILL DROP INTO OUR AREA BY
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES FOR LIGHT SHOWERS. MOST
AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE LESS THAN ONE QUARTER INCH OF RAIN BY
LATE WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT DROPS SOUTH OF THE AREA. TEMPS BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL BE COOLER, BUT STILL SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1010 PM CST SUN FEB 8 2026
THERE WILL BE A DRY PERIOD FROM LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS
THE FRONT DROPS WELL SOUTH OF OUR AREA. TEMPS WILL BE JUST ON THE
PLUS SIDE OF NORMAL. HERE IS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY ON
HOW MUCH MOISTURE THE WEEKEND SYSTEM WILL HAVE BUT IT DOES HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO BE A WETTER SYSTEM.
WET CONDITIONS WILL RETURN LATE WEEK, ESPECIALLY FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. A SHORT WAVE WILL DIG OUT OF THE NORTHERN
PLAINS ON FRIDAY WITH THE FIRST LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. OUR NEXT
SHORT WAVE WILL COME OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WITH HIGHER
CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THERE REMAINS A LOT OF MODEL
INCONSISTENCY WITH STRENGTH, TRACK, AND TIMING OF THE FEATURES AND
RESULTANT RAINFALL AMOUNTS. THE WEEKEND COULD BE A BIG SOAKER,
BUT SOME MODELS SHOW A MORE INTERMITTENT, LIGHTER RAINFALL
PATTERN. OVERALL, WE CONTINUE TO THINK RAINFALL WILL NOT CAUSE ANY
BIG HYDRO ISSUES.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 527 AM CST MON FEB 9 2026
VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A WIND SHIFT OUT OF THE SW
WILL OCCUR AROUND 15Z WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS. A
FEW GUSTS TO 15 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON AT SRB AND
CSV. AROUND 12Z TUESDAY, SOME POCKETS OF MVFR CIGS BEGIN TO MOVE
OVER THE PLATEAU.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 68 46 73 42 / 0 0 20 70
CLARKSVILLE 63 42 70 38 / 0 0 20 60
CROSSVILLE 60 44 67 42 / 0 0 30 70
COLUMBIA 68 48 71 45 / 0 0 10 70
COOKEVILLE 62 44 68 41 / 0 0 40 70
JAMESTOWN 60 43 67 39 / 0 0 20 70
LAWRENCEBURG 67 48 71 45 / 0 0 10 70
MURFREESBORO 67 45 71 45 / 0 0 20 70
WAVERLY 65 46 70 42 / 0 0 30 70
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION.....CRAVENS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page