502
FXUS64 KOHX 250521
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1221 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1219 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2026
- LOOK FOR A DRY, COOLER EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PERIOD. FOG IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE RIVER VALLEYS IN THE MORNING.
- LOW TO MEDIUM RAIN AND STORM CHANCES RETURN WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THEN TAPER OFF AFTER THURSDAY. WE SHOULD STAY
RAIN-FREE THIS WEEKEND.
- TEMPERATURES FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL STAY CLOSE
TO SEASONAL NORMS, THEN A LITTLE WARMER TO START OFF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1031 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES CONTINUES TO
PROVIDE MIDDLE TENNESSEE WITH A DRY, STABLE AND RELATIVELY COOL
AIR MASS. WE'VE ONE MORE COOL NIGHT TO LOOK FORWARD TO BEFORE
RETURN FLOW PICKS UP TOMORROW AND BRINGS US MORE NORMAL AUGUST
TEMPERATURES BY THE AFTERNOON. AFTER THAT, LOOK FOR A GRADUAL, BUT
STEADY WARMING TREND THAT WILL CARRY OVER INTO NEXT WEEK. RAIN AND
STORM CHANCES WILL RETURN TO THE FORECAST WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE ARKLATEX AND A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES AND THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY. HOWEVER, AS OFTEN HAPPENS ONCE A DRY AIR MASS
GETS LOCKED IN, RAIN AND STORM CHANCES ARE GETTING PUSHED TOWARD
LATER START TIMES.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1031 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2026
IT NOW APPEARS THAT THE BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
THURSDAY AND THEN START TO TAPER OFF THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. IT
STILL LOOKS AS THOUGH WE'VE A RAIN-FREE WEEKEND TO LOOK FORWARD
TO. AND EVEN WITH MULTI-DAY RAIN CHANCES, STORM TOTAL QPF VALUES
REMAIN UNIMPRESSIVE. INDEED, THE BULK OF THE MID STATE CAN EXPECT
LESS THAN 1/4" OF RAINFALL SPREAD ACROSS THE NEXT 7 DAYS, ALTHOUGH
A FEW SPOTS -- MAINLY IN AREAS NEAR THE TN/AL BORDER AND ALONG
THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU -- MIGHT SEE AS MUCH AS 1/2". EITHER WAY,
WE CAN EXPECT BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL FOR THE NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES, ON THE OTHER HAND, WILL CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, AND MUCH OF THE MID STATE MIGHT ACTUALLY APPROACH HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA BY NEXT MONDAY AND TUESDAY. OTHERWISE, SEVERE
STORM RISK THIS WEEK LOOKS TO BE VERY LOW.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1219 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2026
OTHER THAN A COUPLE OF HOURS OF MVFR FOG AT CSV/SRB NEAR SUNRISE,
ALL MID-STATE TERMINALS EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR WITH VERY LIGHT
NORTHEAST WINDS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 90 65 93 70 / 0 0 10 20
CLARKSVILLE 89 65 92 68 / 0 0 0 30
CROSSVILLE 86 63 86 65 / 0 0 10 20
COLUMBIA 92 67 94 69 / 0 0 20 20
COOKEVILLE 86 65 88 68 / 0 0 0 20
JAMESTOWN 85 63 87 67 / 0 0 0 20
LAWRENCEBURG 90 67 92 68 / 0 0 20 20
MURFREESBORO 91 67 94 69 / 0 0 10 20
WAVERLY 90 67 92 69 / 0 0 10 30
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM....ROSE
AVIATION.....UNGER
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