251
FXUS64 KOHX 240014
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
614 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2025
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 609 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2025
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
LOW CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER, MAINLY SOUTH OF I-40.
- DRIER AND MUCH COOLER WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH WIDESPREAD
SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHTS.
- GRADUAL WARMING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH LOW TO MEDIUM RAIN CHANCES
RETURNING.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 609 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2025
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS IN THE PROCESS OF SLIDING ACROSS MIDDLE
TENNESSEE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, SO WE MAY HAVE TEXTBOOK
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. A LOT OF THAT DEPENDS ON A STRATUS
DECK TO OUR NORTH THAT IS CREEPING SOUTHWARD. WE'LL HAVE TO SEE
WHAT THAT DOES. THE NBM HOURLY GUIDANCE IS GIVING US SOME LOW
VISIBILITIES FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD FOR AREAS WEST OF THE
CUMBERLAND PLATEAU, SO WE WILL HAVE TO EVALUATE THAT POSSIBILITY
DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. IN THE MEANTIME, WE DO HAVE FOG IN THE
FORECAST GRIDS FOR MOST OF THE MID STATE.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1130 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2025
BROAD NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS SITUATED ACROSS THE REGION ALONG
WITH A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NOW CENTERING NEAR THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY. DRY, STABLE WEATHER WILL RESULT TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 50S TO THE MID 60S. WE'LL WATCH FOR FOG/LOW CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT AGAIN TONIGHT AS WELL.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROGRESS EAST TOMORROW WHICH WILL COINCIDE
WITH HEIGHT RISES AND SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW. TEMPERATURES AND
MOISTURE VALUES WILL RISE SLIGHTLY ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER AS A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE LOWER/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
SOME RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE EAST OF I-65 TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1130 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2025
AN UPPER-LOW CURRENTLY SITUATED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS IS PROJECTED
TO ADVANCE TOWARD OUR REGION MONDAY NIGHT. THIS COINCIDES WITH
INCREASING TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE VALUES PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED.
CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS MIDDLE
TENNESSEE MONDAY NIGHT OWING TO INCREASING WARM, MOIST ADVECTION
AND A LOW-LEVEL JET. RAIN SHOWERS, AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
QUITE WIDESPREAD ALONG/AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT SET TO
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING. DESPITE FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER
WIND SHEAR AND FORCING, INSTABILITY LOOKS VERY MEAGER ACROSS THE
AREA MONDAY NIGHT DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER. HOWEVER, SOME INCREASE IN PRE-FRONTAL INSTABILITY IS
POSSIBLE TUESDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON WITH HEATING. SHOULD FRONTAL
FORCING STILL BE AROUND BY THEN WE COULD SEE A STRONG/SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM. AT THIS TIME BEST CHANCES ARE GENERALLY SOUTH OF
I-40, BUT FORECAST DETAILS WILL BECOME A LITTLE MORE CLEAR WITH
NEW HI-RES GUIDANCE.
AFTER THE EXIT OF THIS STORM SYSTEM ON TUESDAY, MEDIUM-RANGE
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO PREDICT A LONGWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVERTAKING MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
CONUS MID TO LATE WEEK. THIS WILL FAVOR DRIER AND MUCH COOLER
WEATHER. IN FACT, WIDESPREAD SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHTS. GRADUAL WARMING AND HEIGHT
RISES SHOULD OCCUR INTO THE WEEKEND. LOW TO MEDIUM RAIN CHANCES
THEN RETURN TO THE AREA WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 524 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2025
THE MAIN ISSUE OF THE TAF PERIOD WILL BE LOW CLOUDS AND/OR FOG
AFTER 06Z. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IF LOW CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP AT
BNA/MQY OR IF IT WILL BE FOG. IF THE LOW CLOUDS DO NOT FORM, THERE
IS A HIGH CHANCE VISIBILITIES WILL DROP TO LESS THAN 1SM.
CONFIDENCE IN LIFR VISIBILITIES ARE HIGHEST AT CKV. ANY FOG AND
LOW CLOUDS THAT DEVELOP OVERNIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO SCATTER AND
DISSIPATE BY 15Z ALLOWING VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE THAT A LIGHT SHOWER IMPACTS CKV/BNA/MQY AFTER 21Z. WINDS
WILL BE CALM OVERNIGHT BEFORE INCREASING TO 5 KTS OUT OF THE SE
AFTER 15Z.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 44 69 58 72 / 0 10 100 90
CLARKSVILLE 43 66 55 70 / 0 40 90 70
CROSSVILLE 39 63 51 63 / 0 0 90 100
COLUMBIA 42 71 56 72 / 0 10 90 90
COOKEVILLE 41 66 54 66 / 0 0 100 100
JAMESTOWN 40 64 52 65 / 0 0 100 100
LAWRENCEBURG 41 71 57 71 / 0 10 90 90
MURFREESBORO 41 71 57 71 / 0 10 90 90
WAVERLY 43 66 54 69 / 0 50 90 70
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE.......ROSE
SHORT TERM...SIZEMORE
LONG TERM....SIZEMORE
AVIATION.....REAGAN
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