561
FXUS64 KOHX 262317
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
617 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 610 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2026
- STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FROM MONDAY EVENING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH ALL HAZARDS POSSIBLE.
- ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TUESDAY
EVENING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH ALL HAZARDS POSSIBLE.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1141 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2026
SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL ARE INVADING THE AREA FROM THE WEST THIS
AFTERNOON. THERE'S ALSO SOME CLOUDS AROUND DRIVEN UPWARDS BY THE
WARMING OF THE SURFACE. AS THESE CLOUDS DISAPPEAR THIS EVENING, WE
SHOULD HAVE A PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT PERIOD, WITH
TEMPERATURES AROUND THE MID 50S AND LOW 60S. WINDS WILL TURN
SOUTHERLY INTO MONDAY, BRINGING IN MORE WARM AIR TO PRIME THE
ATMOSPHERE AHEAD OF A BUSY NIGHT.
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH AN ATTENDING COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN
TO PUSH INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF IT, A PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH WILL PROVIDE ALL OF THE FORCING WE NEED FOR THE SEVERE
THREAT. DON'T THINK THERE WILL BE MUCH CONVECTION BEFORE SUNSET, BUT
THE INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN, AS SOME GUIDANCE HAS CONVECTION
BEGINNING IN THE AREA AS EARLY AS 7-9PM. LOOKING AT FORECAST
SOUNDINGS, OUR BIGGEST THREAT IS GOING TO BE DAMAGING WINDS, AS
DCAPE IN SIMULATED SOUNDINGS IS BETWEEN 1000 - 1200 J/KG ACROSS THE
SLIGHT RISK AREA. ALL HAZARDS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT THOUGH, WITH A
MARGINAL TORNADO THREAT AND A HAIL THREAT EXTENDING INTO THE
NASHVILLE METRO AREA. MODE OF SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS TO BE A LINE OF
STORMS WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE LINE.
AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE IS WHERE WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR THE
TORNADO THREAT, BUT I BELIEVE THE MAIN WIND THREAT WILL LIE IN THE
ACTUAL LINE OF STORMS IF THE MODE PANS OUT LIKE IT DOES IN GUIDANCE.
SEVERE CHANCES DIMINISH AS THE THREAT MOVES EAST, BUT HOW FAR EAST
THE THREAT MAKES IT IS A QUESTION OF HOW FAST WE LOSE INSTABILITY IN
MIDDLE TENNESSEE.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1141 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2026
THE FUN CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY NIGHT, WHEN THE ACTUAL FROPA COULD
SPAWN ANOTHER SEVERE THREAT. WE ARE UNDER A SLIGHT RISK ONCE AGAIN
FOR SEVERE WEATHER. MAIN HAZARDS WITH THIS ROUND LOOK TO BE DAMAGING
WINDS AND HAIL, WITH A LESSER TORNADO THREAT. UNFORTUNATELY, THIS
THREAT WILL DEPEND ON HOW OVERTURNED THE ATMOSPHERE IS AFTER MONDAY
NIGHT'S SEVERE WEATHER, AND IF IT RECHARGES DURING THE DAY ON
TUESDAY. SOME CAMS THINK IT IS POSSIBLE, BUT THIS IS SOMETHING WE
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR. IN ANY CASE, IT IS BETTER TO BE PREPARED FOR A
SEVERE THREAT BOTH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT THIS WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN POST-FRONTAL, MAKING THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD BEING MUCH COOLER. HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH SOME MORE SMALL RAIN CHANCES IN THE FUTURE. IT LOOKS
LIKE A GOOD RAINFALL AMOUNT IN THE FORECAST CURRENTLY, BUT GIVEN THE
TENDENCY OF GUIDANCE TO TAPER OFF ON QPF AS THE EVENT APPROACHES
LATELY, WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH IT. HOPEFULLY, WE CAN GET SOME RELIEF
IN THE SHORT TERM THOUGH.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 610 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2026
THROUGH THE NIGHT ALL TERMINALS WILL HAVE LIGHT EAST WINDS WITH
VFR CONDITIONS.
DAYTIME MONDAY (AFTER 12Z) SOUTH WINDS WILL KICK WITH GUSTS TO 25
KT AT TIMES. VFR WX IS EXPECTED, BUT WE ARE WATCHING A DEVELOPING
MCS OVER MO. SOME RECENT MODEL DATA SHOWS THE REMNANTS OF THIS
SYSTEM PASSING THROUGH THE MIDDLE TN AREA 12Z-18Z. FOR NOW WILL
JUST INCLUDE PROB30 FOR DISSIPATING SHOWER POTENTIAL. HOPEFULLY
00Z DATA WILL GIVE US MORE CONFIDENCE ON THE PATH OF THE
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM.
A MORE SUBSTANTIAL BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS EXPECTED TO
IMPACT THE ENTIRE AREA JUST AFTER THIS TAF CYCLE, LATE MONDAY
NIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 62 84 64 81 / 0 10 100 60
CLARKSVILLE 60 85 66 82 / 10 20 100 60
CROSSVILLE 54 77 54 73 / 0 10 100 80
COLUMBIA 59 84 63 82 / 0 10 100 70
COOKEVILLE 57 80 58 77 / 0 10 100 70
JAMESTOWN 54 80 54 77 / 0 10 100 70
LAWRENCEBURG 60 83 62 80 / 0 10 100 70
MURFREESBORO 59 84 61 81 / 0 10 100 70
WAVERLY 62 85 65 82 / 10 20 100 60
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...HOLLEY
LONG TERM....HOLLEY
AVIATION.....13
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