365
FXUS64 KOHX 020013
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
613 PM CST THU JAN 1 2026
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 559 PM CST THU JAN 1 2026
- HIGH RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
- BOTH THE 6-10 DAY AND 8-14 DAY OUTLOOKS FAVOR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 559 PM CST THU JAN 1 2026
IT WAS A LITTLE WARMER TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE 50S
AND 60S ACROSS MIDDLE TN. TONIGHT, TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE
UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S. RAIN IS STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FRIDAY AS
A SURFACE LOW PASSES SOUTH OF THE STATE. NOT EXPECTING ANY
THUNDER WITH THESE SHOWERS. MOST LIKELY RAINFALL AMOUNTS RANGE
BETWEEN 0.12-0.50 INCHES, SO NOT A WHOLE LOT. WE DRY OUT ONCE
AGAIN, JUST IN TIME FOR THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 951 AM CST THU JAN 1 2026
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GULF IS PUSHING WARMER AIR INTO
MIDDLE TENNESSEE, SO AFTERNOON READINGS WILL INCREASE ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMS FOR THE FIRST TIME IN SEVERAL DAYS. ENJOY THE
SUNSHINE TODAY, BECAUSE RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST
BEGINNING TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS A SURFACE LOW TRACKS EASTWARD AND
JUST TO THE IMMEDIATE SOUTH OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE BEGINNING LATE
TOMORROW.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 951 AM CST THU JAN 1 2026
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS LOOK TO SETTLE INTO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND
LINGER INTO SATURDAY BEFORE THIS SYSTEM PULLS EASTWARD. BEING
NORTH OF THE LOW TRACK, INSTABILITY ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE WILL
BE NEGLIGIBLE, SO WE EXPECT ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO REMAIN
SOUTH OF THE TN/AL BORDER. STILL, EVENT TOTAL QPF VALUES RANGE
FROM AROUND 1/3" ACROSS NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE MID STATE TO
AROUND 1" OVER THE SOUTHERN CUMBERLAND PLATEAU. SO THIS COULD BE
THE MOST IMPACTFUL RAIN EVENT SINCE THE WEEK BEFORE CHRISTMAS. AT
ANY RATE, DON'T LOOK FOR MUCH COLD ADVECTION WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY DROP BACK TO
SEASONAL NORMS THIS WEEKEND, BUT WILL WARM RIGHT BACK UP STARTING
ON MONDAY AND LASTING THROUGHOUT NEXT WEEK. RAIN CHANCES START TO
CREEP BACK UP BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, BUT BY THEN, INDIVIDUAL
MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE TO SUCH A DEGREE THAT THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE REGARDING SPECIFIC TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL WEATHER SYSTEMS
AND WHAT IMPACT THEY MIGHT HAVE. ONE THING WE CAN CONCLUDE IS
THAT THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY SORT OF WINTER WEATHER EVENT REMAINS
QUITE LOW GIVEN THE 10-DAY TEMPERATURE VALUES PROJECTED BY THE
NBM.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 511 PM CST THU JAN 1 2026
VFR CONDITIONS UNTIL THE END OF THIS TAF CYCLE. MVFR WILL ARRIVE
FOR CKV/BNA/MQY TOWARDS 00Z SATURDAY, BUT LOW CONFIDENCE ON EXACT
ARRIVAL TIME OF RAIN. THERE IS SOME INDICATION IT MAY NEED TO BE
MOVED UP FROM CURRENT FORECAST. WILL ADJUST WITH 06Z ISSUANCE AS
NEEDED.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND SOUTHWEST UNTIL MIDDAY FRIDAY WHEN WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO SWING AROUND TO THE NORTHEAST AS OUR NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 39 55 41 52 / 0 40 70 20
CLARKSVILLE 35 50 36 48 / 0 30 50 10
CROSSVILLE 37 53 41 50 / 0 20 70 40
COLUMBIA 40 57 43 54 / 0 60 80 20
COOKEVILLE 36 53 42 51 / 0 20 70 40
JAMESTOWN 35 51 39 49 / 0 10 60 40
LAWRENCEBURG 40 57 44 54 / 0 60 80 20
MURFREESBORO 38 56 43 54 / 0 40 70 30
WAVERLY 39 52 39 49 / 0 50 70 10
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE.......CRAVENS
SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM....ROSE
AVIATION.....UNGER
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