252
FXUS64 KOHX 171125
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
625 AM CDT THU SEP 17 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 625 AM CDT THU SEP 17 2026
- VERY HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WITH TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT INDICES
WILL CONTINUE. A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY
FOR MOST OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE.
- NOT AS HOT NEXT WEEK, BUT OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL STAY ABOVE-
NORMAL FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.
- LOW RAIN CHANCES MAINLY FOR THE PLATEAU THIS WEEKEND. LOW TO
MEDIUM RAIN CHANCES AREA-WIDE EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1048 PM CDT WED SEP 16 2026
A MAJOR HEAT WAVE CONTINUES WITH A 6000+ METER H5 RIDGE CENTERED
OVER THE TN VALLEY. THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT A LITTLE
SOUTHWESTWARD LATE THIS WEEK, BUT THE RECORD HEAT WILL CONTINUE.
HIGHS EACH DAY WILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 90S WEST OF THE
PLATEAU WITH A FEW SPOTS TOPPING 100. IT WILL BE HUMID, BUT IT
ACTUALLY COULD BE WORSE. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL PEAK MOSTLY IN THE
LOWER 100S WITH SPOTS OF 105-108. HEAT RISK LEVELS WILL CONTINUE
TO REACH LEVEL 3 AND 4 OUT OF 4. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL COOL TO THE
LOWER 70S, EXCEPT 60S PLATEAU.
LIKE WE SAW WEDNESDAY, A FEW LITTLE "PINHEAD" SHOWERS MAY BREAK
THROUGH THE CAP EACH AFTERNOON, BUT NO MEANINGFUL RAIN IS
EXPECTED WITH COVERAGE LESS THAN 10 PERCENT THROUGH SATURDAY. THE
PLATEAU HAS THE BEST CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS LATE THIS WEEK.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1048 PM CDT WED SEP 16 2026
THE HEAT HEADLINES MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED THROUGH SUNDAY, BUT
THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN ENOUGH FOR HEAT LEVELS TO BACK OFF
AT LEAST A FEW DEGREES BY MONDAY AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY. THE
APPROACH OF A WEAK FRONT FROM THE NORTH AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENT
FLOW FROM THE SOUTHEAST WILL CREATE LOW TO MEDIUM SHOWER AND
STORM CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA NEXT WEEK. UNFORTUNATELY, NO
"PUMPKIN SPICE WEATHER" IS IN SIGHT WITH CPC EXTENDED OUTLOOKS
SHOWING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LOCKED IN PLACE AS WE WRAP UP
SEPTEMBER.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT THU SEP 17 2026
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME
PATCHY FOG AROUND CSV AND SRB THROUGH 14Z. WINDS WILL TURN TO THE
NORTH STARTING AFTER 12Z THURSDAY, WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND
5-10 KNOTS. WINDS WILL GO CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER 0Z
FRIDAY. CEILINGS WILL REMAIN VFR.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 98 76 98 75 / 10 10 10 10
CLARKSVILLE 99 74 99 73 / 0 0 10 0
CROSSVILLE 90 69 90 67 / 20 10 10 0
COLUMBIA 99 73 100 73 / 10 10 0 0
COOKEVILLE 94 71 94 70 / 10 0 10 10
JAMESTOWN 90 70 90 68 / 10 0 20 10
LAWRENCEBURG 97 72 97 72 / 0 10 0 0
MURFREESBORO 99 73 99 73 / 10 10 0 0
WAVERLY 98 75 98 74 / 0 0 0 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR TNZ005>010-023>033-
056>065-075-077-078-093>095.
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION.....HOLLEY
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