328
FXUS64 KOHX 111538
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1038 AM CDT FRI SEP 11 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1022 AM CDT FRI SEP 11 2026
- ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO
MID 90S FOR MOST AREAS THROUGH THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.
- THERE ARE MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES FOR RAIN AND STORMS THROUGH
SATURDAY. STRONGEST STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL.
- IT APPEARS THAT WE CAN FINALLY LOOK FORWARD TO SOME RELIEF FROM
THE HEAT BY NEXT WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1022 AM CDT FRI SEP 11 2026
A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY IS STRETCHED ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE
TODAY, AND WITH AN UNSTABLE AND VERY HUMID AIR MASS IN PLACE, IT'S
ONLY A MATTER OF TIME BEFORE CONVECTION STARTS TO FIRE UP GIVEN
THE CONTINUED ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES. PRECIPITABLE WATER ON THE
12Z SOUNDING FROM OHX STANDS AT 1.96", WHICH IS WELL ABOVE THE
90TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS DATE AND IS VERY CLOSE TO THE DAILY MAX
VALUE. SO ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
INTENSE RAINFALL RATES, AND LOCALIZED FLASH-FLOODING IS
DEFINITELY A POSSIBILITY IN ISOLATED AREAS. OTHERWISE, DESPITE
THE INSTABILITY, THE 700-500 LAPSE RATE IS A VERY MODEST 5.0 C/KM,
SO THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT IS QUITE LIMITED.
TODAY THROUGH TOMORROW IS THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR MEANINGFUL
RAINFALL FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. AFTER TOMORROW, DRIER AIR
WILL FILL IN AND MOST OF US WILL BE LEFT WITH ANOTHER DRY SPELL
FROM SUNDAY ONWARD.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1022 AM CDT FRI SEP 11 2026
WHILE MOST OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO BE RAIN-FREE, TEMPERATURES LOOK
TO REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 7 DAYS. AND
WHILE WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO AVOID ANY HEAT ADVISORIES, WE CAN STILL
EXPECT HEAT INDICES TO MAX OUT IN THE LOW 100S IN MANY AREAS WEST
OF THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU FROM NOW THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY. AFTER
THAT, LOW RAIN CHANCES WILL EMERGE, AND THE ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER
SHOULD START TO PUSH TEMPERATURES DOWN SOMEWHAT. IN FACT, THE 07Z
NBM SUGGESTS THAT BY NEXT WEEKEND, WE SHOULD BE MUCH CLOSER TO
SEASONAL NORMS, AND MAYBE, POSSIBLY, WE'LL BE TREATED TO OUR FIRST
BONAFIDE AUTUMN COLD FRONT JUST IN TIME FOR THE EQUINOX.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 618 AM CDT FRI SEP 11 2026
OVERALL WE WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS INTO THE EVENING. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AFTER 21Z AND CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING. MVFR/IFR IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS. MVFR CIGS WILL BUILD IN
AFTER 07Z. SOUTHERLY WINDS UP TO 6 KNOTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 93 71 88 69 / 30 40 70 10
CLARKSVILLE 90 69 88 68 / 40 50 50 0
CROSSVILLE 88 66 81 64 / 30 40 80 30
COLUMBIA 95 69 90 69 / 30 40 60 10
COOKEVILLE 90 69 83 67 / 20 30 70 30
JAMESTOWN 87 68 81 66 / 30 30 70 30
LAWRENCEBURG 94 68 88 68 / 20 40 60 20
MURFREESBORO 96 70 90 69 / 20 40 70 20
WAVERLY 91 69 88 69 / 50 50 50 10
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM....ROSE
AVIATION.....MUELLER
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