251
FXUS64 KOHX 310347
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1047 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1042 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2026
- MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURN FRIDAY
NIGHT AND LINGER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE
STORMS REMAINS LOW FOR LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
- WHILE THE THREAT OF FLOODING REMAINS LOW FOR SATURDAY, IT IS
WORTH KEEPING AN EYE ON THE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
- TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO COOL BELOW NORMAL THIS WEEKEND WITH
THE RAIN AND REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TO START NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1042 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2026
TODAY WAS AN ABSOLUTE TREAT FOR LATE JULY WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL AND DEW POINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. TOMORROW WILL
MUCH OF THE SAME THOUGH TEMPS SHOULD BE A TICK OR TWO WARMER AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER SHIFTS AROUND TO THE SOUTH AHEAD OF TOMORROW NIGHT'S
RAIN. YES, THE STREAK OF DRY DAYS WILL COME TO AN END TOMORROW NIGHT
AS A LARGE UPPER DIGS INTO THE OHIO AND TN VALLEYS. GULF MOISTURE
WILL FLUX HARD NORTHWARD BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK TO
MIDDLE TN STARTING AROUND MIDNIGHT. AS WE PROGRESS INTO THE DAY ON
SATURDAY, MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT BRINGING PWAT VALUES OF
2.0 TO 2.3 INCHES INTO THE MID-STATE AHEAD OF THE EVENTUAL FRONTAL
PASSAGE EARLY SATURDAY EVENING. THE DAY SHIFT ASSESSMENT OF STORM
FLOW VS FRONTAL POSITIONING IS GOING TO PLAY A SIGNIFICANT ROLE IN
ANY FLOOD POTENTIAL SATURDAY, HOWEVER RAINFALL AMOUNT PROBS HAVE
LEVELED OUT IN THE LAST FEW NBM RUNS AND REMAIN VERY SIMILAR, IF NOT
A TOUCH LOWER THAN LAST NIGHT. I'M STILL SEEING 1.5"+ PROBS COMING
IN AT 40-50% AND 2"+ PROBS AT 20% WITH THE FOCUS OF ANY HEAVIER
RAINS EAST OF I-65. THE GOOD NEWS IS WE HAVE AT LEAST ANOTHER 24
HOURS OF DRYING AHEAD OF US. THAT MEANS THE FFG, WHICH CONTINUES
IMPROVE EACH DAY, SHOULD BE EVEN BETTER BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. IN
THE NEXT 6 HOURS, WE WILL START GETTING CAM SOLUTIONS FOR THIS TIME
FRAME AND SHOULD GRAB A BETTER HOLD WHAT TO EXPECT. THE FACT THAT
PROBS HAVE PLATEAUED IN THE LAST 24 HOURS AND ECMWF EFI VALUES HAVE
TAPERED OFF IN THE EAST COULD BE AN INDICATION ANY FLOODING THREAT
COULD BE VERY ISOLATED HERE IN MIDDLE TN. IN ADDITION, I DON'T THINK
THE SEVERE THREAT HAS CHANGED AT ALL, EITHER. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST POOR LAPSE RATES AND WHILE 20-25 KTS OF BULK
SHEAR WILL ALLOW FOR SOME ORGANIZATION ALONG THE FRONT EARLY
SATURDAY EVENING, ANY WIND THREAT SHOULD BE VERY LIMITED.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1042 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2026
AS SUNDAY ROLLS AROUND, THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO PUSH TOWARDS
THE KY-TN STATE LINE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR LINGERING SHOWERS AT LEAST
INTO SUNDAY MORNING (POTENTIALLY INTO THE AFTERNOON) AND
TEMPERATURES WELL-BELOW NORMAL. HOWEVER, THIS WON'T BE THE CASE FOR
THE NEXT WEEK. WHILE WE ARE EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A DIURNAL CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY,
AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE PROGGED TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY EACH DAY WITH LOW
90S RETURNING TO THE AREA BY MID-WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 620 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2026
NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST THIS TAF CYCLE.
HIGH CLOUDS WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA TONIGHT, BRINGING SCT
COVERAGE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LIGHT E WINDS WILL SHIFT
TO THE SE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 55 91 74 90 / 0 0 70 80
CLARKSVILLE 64 90 74 88 / 0 0 70 60
CROSSVILLE 59 86 68 82 / 0 0 20 90
COLUMBIA 65 92 73 90 / 0 0 70 70
COOKEVILLE 61 86 70 84 / 0 0 40 90
JAMESTOWN 60 86 68 83 / 0 0 20 80
LAWRENCEBURG 64 90 72 88 / 0 0 70 70
MURFREESBORO 64 91 73 90 / 0 0 70 80
WAVERLY 66 91 73 87 / 0 10 70 40
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...UNGER
LONG TERM....UNGER
AVIATION.....CRAVENS
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