193
FXUS64 KOHX 240512
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1212 AM CDT THU SEP 24 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1205 AM CDT THU SEP 24 2026
- LOW CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU
THURSDAY. NO SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED.
- PLEASANT WEATHER THIS WEEKEND WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1043 PM CDT WED SEP 23 2026
TODAY WAS SUBSTANTIALLY COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS WITH HIGHS ONLY
MAKING IT INTO THE LOW 70S. WE BROKE A 116 DAY STREAK OF 80
DEGREES OR WARMER IN NASHVILLE WITH THE LAST DAY WE SAW COOLER
THAN 80 BEING MAY 29TH. A THICK LOW STRATUS DECK IS TO THANK FOR
THE COOLER WEATHER WITH A STEADY NORTH-NORTHEAST BREEZE. CLOUDS
WILL STICK AROUND THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY THURSDAY, ONCE AGAIN
KEEPING TEMPERATURES ON THE COOLER SIDE. RIDGING WILL START TO
BUILD IN FROM THE WEST AND IF THIS STRATUS DECK STARTS TO THIN
OUT, WE COULD SEE A FEW SPOTS MAKE IT TO 80 DEGREES TOMORROW,
ESPECIALLY WEST OF I-65. AS THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS EAST, THERE WILL
BE ANOTHER OPPORTUNITY FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND MAYBE A STORM OR
TWO TO DEVELOP TOMORROW AFTERNOON. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
FRIDAY IS LOOKING FANTASTIC WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW
80S, LOW HUMIDITY, AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
FALL INTO THE 40S ON THE PLATEAU AND 50S ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE MID-
STATE.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1043 PM CDT WED SEP 23 2026
THE FANTASTIC WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND LOW HUMIDITY. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE COOL ENOUGH TO WEAR A LIGHT JACKET! STARTING MONDAY,
WE WILL SEE A RISE IN TEMPERATURES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK
OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES NEAR 0% THROUGH
TUESDAY AND WARM US BACK UP INTO THE UPPER 80S TO MAYBE EVEN 90 IN
NASHVILLE. FORTUNATELY THE UPPER AIR PATTERN APPEARS MORE
PROGRESSIVE NEXT WEEK AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE SWINGING
THROUGH DURING THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIMEFRAME. THIS FEATURE WILL
BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES BACK TO THE AREA TO FINISH OUT THE
WEEK WITH THE NBM CURRENTLY GIVING 30-50% RAIN CHANCES AREAWIDE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY. STILL SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT
ABOUT PLACEMENT AND STRENGTH OF THIS LOW, BUT CONFIDENCE IS HIGH
ENOUGH TO WARRANT POPS IN THE FORECAST. WE'LL ALSO SEE ANOTHER DROP
IN TEMPERATURES, AND THE SPREAD IS QUITE LARGE RIGHT NOW GIVEN
THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE LOW'S TRACK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1205 AM CDT THU SEP 24 2026
LOW STRATUS CONTINUES TO BLANKET THE AREA, RESULTING IN MAINLY
MVFR CONDITIONS AT THIS HOUR. CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER
OVERNIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG. CIGS
LOOK TO FINALLY BREAK MID-THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH A RETURN TO VFR.
LOW CIGS WILL HOLD ON LONGEST AT CSV WITH VFR NOT RETURNING UNTIL
CLOSER TO 00Z. NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR LIGHT SHOWERS
ACROSS THE PLATEAU THURSDAY AFTERNOON, BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH FOR THE CSV TAF AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 79 61 81 57 / 10 0 0 0
CLARKSVILLE 79 59 82 55 / 0 0 0 0
CROSSVILLE 74 54 73 46 / 60 0 0 0
COLUMBIA 80 60 84 54 / 10 0 0 0
COOKEVILLE 77 57 76 50 / 30 0 0 0
JAMESTOWN 74 54 73 47 / 30 0 0 0
LAWRENCEBURG 78 59 81 52 / 10 10 0 0
MURFREESBORO 81 60 83 53 / 20 10 0 0
WAVERLY 78 60 81 57 / 0 0 0 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...BAGGETT
LONG TERM....BAGGETT
AVIATION.....CLEMENTS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page