995
FXUS64 KOHX 112328
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
528 PM CST WED FEB 11 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 526 PM CST WED FEB 11 2026
- DRY, COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY WARMER
TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND.
- HIGH RAIN CHANCES (<90%) SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH TOTAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1-2 INCHES. FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME.
- ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FORECAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1100 AM CST WED FEB 11 2026
AFTER RECORD-BREAKING WARMTH YESTERDAY, WE'RE BACK INTO
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW HERE IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE WITH LINGERING LIGHT
RAIN AND CLOUDS NOW EXITING SOUTHERN TENNESSEE BEHIND A COLD
FRONT. WHILE COOLER, WE'LL DRY OUT TODAY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
AND A NORTHERLY BREEZE WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE OHIO
AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS FROM THE WEST. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE
20S AND 30S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA
TOMORROW WHICH WILL PROVIDE STABLE, COOL WEATHER THAT WILL
PERSIST INTO THURSDAY NIGHT, THOUGH WE'LL SEE A WARM-UP THEREAFTER
WITH THE APPROACH OF A SHORTWAVE RIDGE.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1100 AM CST WED FEB 11 2026
A SOUTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE, CURRENTLY OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST,
IS PROJECTED TO ENTER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY ON SATURDAY. SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD
NORTHWARD INTO MIDDLE TN THROUGHOUT THE DAY WHICH WILL BRING HIGHER
PW CONTENT THAT WILL SURROUND THE SURFACE LOW PASSING TO OUR SOUTH.
MEDIUM TO HIGH RAIN CHANCES REMAIN IN THE FORECAST SATURDAY MORNING
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A RESULT OF THIS MOISTURE AVAILABILITY
AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE REGION. DUE TO THE TRACK OF THE LOW
TO OUR SOUTH, INSTABILITY VALUES ARE VERY LOW TO NIL WHICH WILL
SUPPRESS THUNDERSTORMS CLOSER TO THE GULF COAST. THE LACK OF DEEP
CONVECTION THANKFULLY LIMITS OUR OVERALL FLOODING THREAT DESPITE 1-
2" OF STORM TOTAL RAINFALL ACROSS ALL RIVER BASINS. HOWEVER IT'S
LOOKED AT WE HAVE A RAINY WEEKEND AHEAD.
WHILE THERE MIGHT BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF COLD ADVECTION SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING BEHIND THE EXITING SYSTEM, GLOBAL
MODELS/ENSEMBLES FAVOR SUBSEQUENT RIDGING AND WARM ADVECTION
MONDAY AFTERNOON THAT PERSISTS INTO WEDNESDAY WHICH SUPPORTS A
PERIOD OF WARM/ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 526 PM CST WED FEB 11 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL
DECREASE BELOW 5 KTS PRIOR TO 04Z AND INCREASE AGAIN THURSDAY
MORNING TO 5-7 KTS AFTER 15Z. WINDS WILL VEER FROM THE N TO THE
NNE AFTER 12Z.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 32 55 34 60 / 0 0 0 0
CLARKSVILLE 30 54 32 59 / 0 0 0 0
CROSSVILLE 27 50 29 54 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBIA 31 55 34 61 / 0 0 0 0
COOKEVILLE 29 50 31 56 / 0 0 0 0
JAMESTOWN 26 47 27 54 / 0 0 0 0
LAWRENCEBURG 31 55 34 60 / 0 0 0 0
MURFREESBORO 30 55 33 60 / 0 0 0 0
WAVERLY 32 55 34 60 / 0 0 0 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...SIZEMORE
LONG TERM....SIZEMORE
AVIATION.....REAGAN
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