270
FXUS64 KOHX 222036
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
336 PM CDT SAT SEP 22 2018
DISCUSSION
AN INTERESTING DAY ACROSS MIDDLE TN TODAY THANKS IN LARGE PART TO
A COLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION. NORTH AND WEST PARTS OF
THE CWA HAVE REMAINED IN THE 70S (EVEN A FEW 60S!) ALL DAY WITH A
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS. MEANWHILE, TEMPS HAVE RISEN INTO THE 80S IN THE
SOUTH AND EAST PARTS OF THE CWA...WITH THE ENHANCED INSTABILITY
HELPING LEAD TO SCATTERED/NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
THAT AREA. ISOLATED STRONG STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON BUT THUNDER CHANCES
SHOULD DIMINISH THERE BY SUNSET.
WET PATTERN CONTINUES TO COME INTO FOCUS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. A WEAK, BROAD AND VERY SLOW-MOVING UPPER TROUGH FROM TX TO
THE OH VALLEY...ALONG WITH THE NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT...WILL KEEP
THE ATMOSPHERE VERY MOIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD...WITH BEST CHANCES TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AS
TWO WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. SOME ISOLATED
HEAVY RAIN TOTALS ARE POSSIBLE BUT ANY STRONGER STORMS SHOULD MOVE
STEADILY AT 10-20 KNOTS SO MOST AREAS SHOULD NOT RECEIVE TOO
HEAVY OF A RAIN FOR TOO LONG.
A SECOND AND LARGER/STRONGER UPPER TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY MOVE
INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MAINTAINING THE
MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FOR THE MIDSTATE. RAIN CHANCES WILL
REMAIN ELEVATED BOTH DAYS, AND AGAIN, SOME ISOLATED HEAVY AMOUNTS
WILL OCCUR.
WE PROBABLY WON'T SEE MUCH DRYING ALOFT OR DECREASING POPS UNTIL
THE SECOND TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE REGION ON THURSDAY. AT THAT
POINT, THE UPPER FLOW WILL TURN MORE WESTERLY OR NORTHWESTERLY...
AND WE'LL SEE SOME DRYING. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL BUILD
OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. BY SATURDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH
PASSAGE, SO HEIGHTS AND THICKNESS WILL INCREASE BY NEXT
WEEKEND...WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS.
AVIATION
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.
A STALLED FRONT OVER THE AREA WILL GIVE US MESSY WX AND SOME MESSY
TAFS WITH LOTS OF AMENDMENTS.
SCATTERED TSRA WILL FORM THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS, EXPECT BRIEF IFR WITHIN THE HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTS AROUND 40KT.
SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
WITH ISOLD TSRA. MOSTLY MVFR, BUT CKV WILL DROP TO IFR.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 67 77 69 80 70 / 80 80 70 60 40
CLARKSVILLE 64 72 67 79 69 / 80 80 70 70 40
CROSSVILLE 66 75 66 75 66 / 60 60 40 60 40
COLUMBIA 68 78 68 80 69 / 70 70 60 70 40
LAWRENCEBURG 67 79 68 81 68 / 60 60 50 70 40
WAVERLY 65 74 67 79 69 / 80 80 70 70 40
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION......49
AVIATION........13
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