875
FXUS64 KOHX 041101
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
501 AM CST WED MAR 4 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 453 AM CST WED MAR 4 2026
- AFTERNOON HIGHS 10-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEK. A COUPLE
OF RECORDS MAY FALL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
- UNSETTLED WEATHER THIS WEEKEND WITH MEDIUM TO HIGH RAIN CHANCES.
THE RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER OR FLOODING IS VERY LOW.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 902 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2026
A VERY MILD AND MOSTLY DRY PERIOD CONTINUES WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT DOMINATES. EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80
ACROSS MIDDLE TN, WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND
POTENTIALLY TYING OR APPROACHING DAILY RECORDS IN SOME SPOTS. LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT STAY MILD IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. THURSDAY LOOKS
SIMILAR WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY TO PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND HIGHS
AGAIN IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S, THOUGH ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY
DEVELOP LATE IN THE DAY OR EVENING AS A WEEK DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THURSDAY NIGHT TURNS PARTLY CLOUDY WITH
LOWS AROUND 60. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE FROM THE SSW.
OVERALL, THIS STRETCH FEELS MORE LIKE LATE SPRING THAN EARLY
MARCH. KEEP AN EYE ON THOSE POLLEN LEVELS.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 902 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2026
THE PATTERN SHIFTS TOWARD MORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STALLS NEARBY AND MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES TRACK THROUGH THE
REGION. FRIDAY STARTS MOSTLY SUNNY AND VERY WARM WITH HIGHS
PUSHING INTO THE MID 80S (ANOTHER SHOT AT RECORDS), BUT A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS DEVELOPS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGS INCREASING RAIN CHANCES,
ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AND AGAIN EARLY NEXT
WEEK, WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS.
TOTAL RAINFALL BETWEEN 1-2 INCHES IS LIKELY WITH MORE IN SOME
SPOTS. THE SEVERE WEATHER RISK APPEARS LOW AT THIS TIME, WITH WEAK
SHEAR AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY. TEMPERATURES TREND SLIGHTLY
COOLER BUT STILL ABOVE AVERAGE, HIGHS IN THE 70S MOST DAYS, WITH
LOWS IN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S. BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, THE
PATTERN LOOKS TO STABILIZE SOMEWHAT WITH DECREASING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES AND HIGHS RETURNING TO THE UPPER 70S.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 453 AM CST WED MAR 4 2026
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS TAF CYCLE, HOWEVER BRIEF
EPISODES OF MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AROUND DAYBREAK EACH DAY. SOUTH
WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AFTER 15Z WITH GUSTS TO 22KT.
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL BE IN PLAY BOTH EARLY THIS MORNING AND
AGAIN EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AS NOCTURNAL SURFACE WINDS SETTLE
LESS THAN 10 KT AND A LLJ STRENGTHENS WITH 30-40KT WINDS AT 2KFT.
CKV WILL INCLUDE PROB30 FOR -SHRA THIS EVENING AS SOME WEAKENING
SHOWERS FROM THE NORTHWEST ENCROACH ON THE PREVAILING RIDGE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 79 62 81 61 / 10 20 0 0
CLARKSVILLE 78 63 78 60 / 20 40 50 10
CROSSVILLE 73 57 75 57 / 0 10 0 0
COLUMBIA 78 61 80 60 / 10 20 0 0
COOKEVILLE 74 60 77 59 / 10 10 0 10
JAMESTOWN 73 58 76 57 / 10 10 0 10
LAWRENCEBURG 78 60 80 60 / 0 10 0 0
MURFREESBORO 78 62 80 60 / 10 10 0 0
WAVERLY 77 63 79 62 / 10 40 20 10
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...CRAVENS
LONG TERM....CRAVENS
AVIATION.....13
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