210
FXUS64 KOHX 031733
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1233 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1227 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2026
- THERE ARE DAILY RAIN CHANCES THIS WEEK, PRIMARILY FOCUSED ALONG
AND NEAR THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU. RAIN AND STORM CHANCES WILL
INCREASE FOR ALL OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. AT THIS TIME, SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED.
- TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO SEASONAL NORMS BY TOMORROW OR
WEDNESDAY, WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER-THAN-NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY THIS
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER, IT APPEARS THAT WE WILL
STAY JUST BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR THE TIME BEING.
- TOTAL QPF FROM TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT RANGES FROM LESS THAN
0.1" NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER TO 1"+ ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
CUMBERLAND PLATEAU.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1041 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2026
PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE ARE SHOWING UP ALONG AND NEAR
THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU THIS MORNING AS AN UPPER LOW CIRCULATES
OVER THE APPALACHIANS. THE 12Z SOUNDING FROM OHX SHOWS A STABLE
AIR MASS IN PLACE, FOR ONCE, AND LARGELY DRY ABOVE ~775 MB. SO
WE'RE CERTAINLY EXPECTING NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER TODAY, OR ANY TIME
IN THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE FOR THAT MATTER. TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY WARM BACK UP AFTER TODAY, AND WE'RE KEEPING LOW TO
MEDIUM POPS IN FOR MAINLY THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU AND ADJACENT
AREAS TOMORROW AS THE PESKY UPPER LOW REFUSES TO BUDGE.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1041 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2026
THERE ARE BETTER RAIN CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
UPPER LOW RETROGRADES AND PULLS ADDITIONAL MOISTURES INTO MIDDLE
TENNESSEE, BUT QPF VALUES ARE QUITE MODEST AND WE DON'T ANTICIPATE
ANYTHING IMPACTFUL. BY THURSDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS, AND WE MAY SEE HEAT INDICES REACH
THE LOW 100S IN SOME OF THE HOTTER LOCALES. THIS WILL REMAIN THE
CASE THROUGH THE WEEKEND, ALTHOUGH IT APPEARS THAT WE'LL STAY JUST
BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA EACH DAY. BETTER RAIN AND STORM
CHANCES WILL SPREAD ACROSS ALL OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE FROM FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE NEXT SURFACE BOUNDARY AND UPPER TROUGH
APPROACH MIDDLE TENNESSEE FROM THE WEST, ALTHOUGH THERE'S NOTHING
YET TO HINT AT MUCH OF A SEVERE WEATHER RISK. TOTAL QPF FROM
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT CONTINUES TO REPRESENT QUITE THE
GRADIENT, WITH VALUES RANGING FROM LESS THAN 0.1" NEAR THE
TENNESSEE RIVER TO 1"+ ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU.
DESPITE THE RETURN OF SEASONAL HEAT AND HUMIDITY AND PERSISTENT
RAIN CHANCES, THE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS, FLOODING AND HEAT-RELATED
HAZARDS ARE ALL VERY LOW THROUGHOUT THE 7-DAY FORECAST.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2026
PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE ACROSS
THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU THIS AFTERNOON, BUT THE ACTIVITY WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATER IN THE DAY, AFTER WHICH ALL TERMINALS
SHOULD GO VFR AS DRIER AIR SLOWLY WORKS ITS WAY IN. THERE MAY BE
SOME LIGHT RADIATION FOG AT KCSV AND KSRB LATE TONIGHT. WINDS WILL
GO LIGHT/CALM AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 68 89 68 89 / 0 10 10 40
CLARKSVILLE 66 88 68 90 / 0 0 0 20
CROSSVILLE 64 84 66 82 / 0 40 30 90
COLUMBIA 67 89 70 89 / 0 10 10 50
COOKEVILLE 66 85 68 84 / 0 30 20 80
JAMESTOWN 65 85 67 83 / 0 30 20 90
LAWRENCEBURG 67 87 69 87 / 0 20 10 60
MURFREESBORO 67 90 70 89 / 0 20 20 60
WAVERLY 66 88 68 89 / 0 0 0 10
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM....ROSE
AVIATION.....ROSE
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page