422
FXUS64 KOHX 260324
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1024 PM CDT THU JUN 25 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1008 PM CDT THU JUN 25 2026
- RAIN AND STORM CHANCES WILL RETURN TO MIDDLE TENNESSEE STARTING
ON FRIDAY, WITH MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR SEVERE
STORMS FRIDAY & SATURDAY WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY
THREAT.
- OPPRESSIVE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BRING TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT
INDICES FROM SUNDAY ONWARD.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1008 PM CDT THU JUN 25 2026
ALTHOUGH MIDDLE TENNESSEE REMAINS ECHO-FREE SO FAR THIS EVENING,
CONVECTION HAS BEEN ONGOING CLOSE BY TO OUR NORTH. A WARM FRONT IS
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY, AND RAIN AND STORM CHANCES WILL
START BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION TOMORROW AS WARM, MOIST ADVECTION
CONTRIBUTES TO INCREASING ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY. IN FACT, THE
00Z SOUNDING FROM OHX THIS EVENING SHOWS THAT INSTABILITY IS
ALREADY IN PLACE, WITH AN SBCAPE VALUE IN EXCESS OF 1,600 J/KG AND
A LIFTED INDEX OF -5. SO WE'RE JUST WAITING ON SOME SORT OF
CATALYST TO FOCUS THAT ENERGY INTO ACTIVE WEATHER. THAT WILL START
TO HAPPEN BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS MAINLY LOW STORM CHANCES
EMERGE. OUR CONVECTIVE CHANCES WILL INCREASE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE BOUNDARY DIPS A LITTLE
FARTHER SOUTHWARD, AND WE ALSO FALL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A WEAK
SHORTWAVE OR TWO IN WHAT WOULD OTHERWISE BE CLASSIFIED AS A QUASI-
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. FORTUNATELY, THE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS IS VERY
LOW. INDEED, THE MOST IMPACTFUL WEATHER THIS FORECAST MAY
ACTUALLY BE THE EXCESSIVE HEAT AND HUMIDITY THAT WILL SETTLE IN
FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1008 PM CDT THU JUN 25 2026
LOOK FOR OUR RAIN CHANCES TO ABATE FROM SUNDAY ONWARD, JUST AS
THE FIRST BONAFIDE HEAT WAVE OF THE SEASON SETTLES IN FOR THE LONG
HAUL. WHILE RAIN CHANCES NEXT WEEK WILL BE NEARLY NON-EXISTENT,
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE BULK OF THE MID STATE WEST OF THE
CUMBERLAND PLATEAU WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S EVERY DAY
AT LEAST THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO HEAT INDICES IN
THE 100S MOST AREAS, AND IT IS LIKELY THAT WE'LL REACH HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA ON MULTIPLE DAYS.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 622 PM CDT THU JUN 25 2026
EXPECT VFR WX THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AND INTO THE DAY
FRIDAY. A WARM FRONT IS IN THE PROCESS OF DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY, AND WITH A A SOUTHERLY FLOW NOW SETTLED OVER MIDDLE
TENNESSEE, WE CAN EXPECT INCREASED TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS.
SO THERE IS AT LEAST A LOW CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON CONVECTION
TOMORROW. CHANCES ALONG THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU ARE EVEN LOWER, SO
WE'VE LEFT RAIN CHANCES OUT OF THE KCSV AND KSRB TAFS FOR NOW.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 71 90 76 89 / 0 30 40 70
CLARKSVILLE 71 89 74 88 / 10 50 60 80
CROSSVILLE 64 84 70 82 / 0 30 40 80
COLUMBIA 69 91 75 90 / 0 20 20 60
COOKEVILLE 67 86 72 84 / 0 30 50 90
JAMESTOWN 64 85 69 83 / 0 40 50 80
LAWRENCEBURG 68 88 74 88 / 0 20 20 60
MURFREESBORO 69 90 75 90 / 0 20 40 70
WAVERLY 70 89 74 88 / 10 30 30 70
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM....ROSE
AVIATION.....ROSE
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