059
FXUS64 KOHX 070546
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1146 PM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1135 PM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
- NEAR-RECORD HIGHS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS,
COLDER WEATHER RETURNS SATURDAY.
- HIGH CHANCES FOR RAIN AND A FEW T-STORMS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL COULD CAUSE FLOODING FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
- LOW CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
LOOKING AT MESOANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT OFF TO
OUR WEST ALONG WITH A DECLINE IN 925 MB WINDS THAT WILL CONTINUE
EASTWARD OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. FORECAST
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL MORE RAPIDLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A
WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSES TO OUR NORTH. AS SUCH, AREAS OF FOG ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP, MOST LIKELY IN THE VALLEYS FIRST. BEST OVERALL
CHANCES FOR FOG ARE AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-40 AND THERE COULD BE
A DENSE FOG ADVISORY AT SOME POINT TONIGHT DEPENDING ON HOW THINGS
WORK OUT. FOG AND LOW CLOUDS SHOULD STICK AROUND THROUGH MID
MORNING. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND A DEVELOPING RIDGE WILL FAVOR WARM
TEMPERATURES AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S.
FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED ON THURSDAY WITH A DEEP-LAYER
RIDGE BUILDING EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND A TROUGH ACROSS THE
WEST. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
WHERE A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE WILL EMERGE. THIS SYSTEM IS PROJECTED
TO ADVANCE QUICKLY NORTHEAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOSTERING A
STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW TO OUR NORTHWEST. WE'LL HAVE A NICE
SOUTHERLY BREEZE AS A RESULT AND A RUN FOR NEAR-RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AFTERNOON. EVENTUALLY THE TRAILING COLD FRONT
AND LOW-LEVEL JET WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT
BRINGING INCREASING RAIN CHANCES THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY WHEN
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ALSO INCREASE.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
THE DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE WEST IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY
SHIFT EAST BY FRIDAY WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO POSITION SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT ACROSS OUR REGION. THIS WILL PROVIDE A CORRIDOR OF
ANOMALOUS MOISTURE VALUES NEAR A PRE-EXISTING SURFACE FRONT AND LOW-
LEVEL JET THAT APPEAR TO BE SLOW-MOVING ACROSS MIDDLE TN ON FRIDAY.
WITH THIS IN MIND, RAIN CHANCES REMAIN VERY HIGH AND THERE WILL BE
THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES AS WELL, POTENTIALLY EVEN IN THE MORNING
HOURS, DUE TO INCREASING MUCAPE VALUES. SINCE THERE'S AN OVERLAP OF
SEVERE WEATHER INGREDIENTS ACROSS MIDDLE TN, STRONG/SEVERE STORMS
ARE POSSIBLE NEAR AND ALONG THE ADVANCING FRONT. HOWEVER, DEEP-LAYER
FLOW IS PROJECTED TO BECOME QUASI-PARALLEL TO THE SURFACE FRONT, SO
SLOW-MOVING THUNDERSTORMS BRINGING HEAVY RAINFALL ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
AND MAY ACT TO LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL IN ADDITION TO THE LULL IN
UPPER FORCING. GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS MORNING STORMS ARE LIKELY TO
BE ELEVATED WITH SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY REMAINING OFF TO OUR
WEST.
THE BIGGER QUESTION IS WITH A SECOND ROUND OF ACTIVITY FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SUBSEQUENT
SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND IS PROJECTED TO
DEVELOP A SURFACE LOW TO OUR WEST. WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED STORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND EVEN
SOME FLOODING POSSIBLE IF TRAINING STORMS OCCUR. THIS IS ALSO OUR
BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS, BUT IT ALL DEPENDS IF SURFACE-BASED
INSTABILITY CAN RECOVER ENOUGH AND IF STORMS CAN INTERACT WITH THE
STALLED FRONT. ALL THINGS CONSIDERED, FORECAST RAINFALL HAS
INCREASED SLIGHTLY ONCE AGAIN AND THERE'S STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY
ON HOW MESOSCALE FACTORS PLAY OUT TO SUPPORT GREATER SEVERE RISKS.
SATURDAY WILL BRING MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO THE REGION BEHIND
THE EXITING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. SOME LINGERING LIGHT RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE PLATEAU, HOWEVER. COOL, STABLE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1050 PM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
AREAS OF FOG WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT ALONG WITH LOW CIGS. THIS WILL
BRING IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS. LOW VIS WILL START TO IMPROVE AFTER
12Z BUT MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL LINGER DURING THE MORNING. ALL TERMINALS
SHOULD SEE VFR CONDITIONS BY 18Z. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 65 47 65 48 / 10 0 0 0
CLARKSVILLE 66 42 63 47 / 0 0 0 0
CROSSVILLE 56 48 63 43 / 20 0 0 0
COLUMBIA 63 47 66 49 / 10 0 0 0
COOKEVILLE 59 47 62 45 / 20 0 0 0
JAMESTOWN 58 45 61 42 / 20 0 0 0
LAWRENCEBURG 64 48 65 49 / 10 0 0 0
MURFREESBORO 64 46 65 46 / 10 0 0 0
WAVERLY 65 43 65 49 / 0 0 0 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...SIZEMORE
LONG TERM....SIZEMORE
AVIATION.....MUELLER
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