258
FXUS64 KOHX 062325
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
625 PM CDT THU AUG 6 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 621 PM CDT THU AUG 6 2026
- SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY. LOW COVERAGE
(10 TO 30 PERCENT) WEST OF I-65 WITH MEDIUM COVERAGE (30 TO 60
PERCENT) EAST OF I-65.
- NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED, BUT A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE
GUSTY WINDS AROUND 40 MPH AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS CAUSING LOCAL
FLASH FLOODING.
- HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE UPPER 90 TO LOW 100S EACH AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1125 AM CDT THU AUG 6 2026
YESTERDAY'S STORMS WERE FOCUSED ALONG A LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY
GRADIENT FROM CLAY AND MACON COUNTIES DOWN TO LAWRENCE COUNTY.
VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS CREATED SOME LOCALIZED SPOTS OF FLASH
FLOODING. WE DO NOT EXPECT AS MUCH COVERAGE TODAY, BUT WHERE
SCATTERED STORMS OCCUR, THE THREAT FOR VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL CONTINUE. A FEW SPOTS COULD SEE 2 TO 3
INCHES OF RAIN WHILE MOST OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE WILL GET THROUGH THE
DAY RAIN-FREE. OTHERWISE, TYPICAL AUGUST HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL
BE IN PLACE WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES TOUCHING 100 FOR MANY AREAS
WEST OF THE PLATEAU.
THE CUTOFF UPPER LOW THAT HAS LINGERED OVER OUR EASTERN COUNTIES
THE PAST FEW DAYS WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN TODAY AND EVENTUALLY GET
ABSORBED INTO PREVAILING WINDS NORTH OF OUR AREA FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. STILL, A BAND OF DEEP MOISTURE WILL LINGER AS AN IMPULSE
COMES OUR WAY FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST. THIS WILL KEEP THE
SCATTERED SHOWER AND STORM PATTERN GOING WITH LOWEST COVERAGE WEST
AND GREATER COVERAGE EAST, ESPECIALLY PLATEAU. PROBABILITIES FOR
RAIN AND STORMS WILL PEAK SATURDAY, RANGING FROM 30 PERCENT WEST
TO NEARLY 70 PERCENT ALONG THE PLATEAU.
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A FEW "STRONG" STORMS WITH
GUSTY WINDS OF 40 OR 50 MPH, BUT WE ARE NOT LOOKING FOR WIDESPREAD
OR ORGANIZED SEVERE WX. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE HEAVY RAIN
LEADING TO LOCAL FLASH FLOODING, LIKE WE SAW IN LAWRENCEBURG AND
A FEW OTHER SPOTS YESTERDAY WHEN 2 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN FELL IN A
SHORT PERIOD.
THE DEEP CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO BE MOSTLY DIURNAL, WITH
SHOWERS AND STORMS MOSTLY ENDING WITH SUNSET. THIS WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR AREAS OF LATE NIGHT FOG, ESPECIALLY WHERE RAIN FALLS.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1125 AM CDT THU AUG 6 2026
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL BE CENTERED OFF TO OUR
SOUTHEAST AND OUT TO OUR WEST. WE WILL EXPERIENCE RELATIVELY WEAKER
RIDGING IN BETWEEN. THIS MEANS A VERY WARM AND HUMID PATTERN WITH
DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. IT IS NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE TO
BE PRECISE ABOUT RAIN HITTING ANY PARTICULAR LOCATION. SADLY, MANY
SPOTS WILL NOT GET MUCH RAIN AT ALL THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK WHILE
A FEW SPOTS GET TOO MUCH. IN GENERAL, SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY LOOK
LIKE THE DAYS WITH LOWEST RAIN COVERAGE (10 TO 30 PERCENT) AND
HOTTEST CONDITIONS AS THE 2 HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS BRIDGE TOGETHER
ACROSS THE AREA. THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN OVER OUR AREA MID TO LATE
WEEK, ALLOWING DAILY STORM CHANCES TO INCREASE (30 TO 60 PERCENT).
MOST DAYS WILL BRING HEAT INDEX VALUES OVER 100 FOR AREAS WEST OF
THE PLATEAU. THE HOTTEST DAYS, SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, COULD SEE
HEAT INDEX VALUES TOPPING 105 FOR SOME SPOTS. THIS WILL PUSH THE
HEAT RISK LEVEL TO 3 OUT OF 4 FOR MANY AREAS AND ADVISORIES MAY
BE CONSIDERED.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 621 PM CDT THU AUG 6 2026
WATCHING CLOUD DEVELOPMENT NEAR BNA CURRENTLY WITH WEAK RADAR
ECHOES ALOFT ALONG A STALLED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. 00Z TAF REFLECTS
VCSH AND POTENTIAL FOR WET RUNWAYS THROUGH ~02Z, BUT NOT SURE IF
WE'LL HAVE TS/LIGHTNING. OTHERWISE, BNA TAF REMAINS VFR THROUGH
THE PERIOD. WINDS PREVAIL SW TOMORROW AT 5-10 KTS. SIMILAR TAF FOR
MQY AND CKV.
SRB AND CSV STILL HAVE LINGERING CLOUDS DUE TO RECENT CONVECTION,
BUT ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED. PLACED PATCHY FG IN THE TAF CSV
OVERNIGHT. THESE TWO SITES WILL SEE ADDITIONAL SCT SHRA/TS AGAIN
TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 74 93 74 92 / 20 20 20 40
CLARKSVILLE 73 93 73 91 / 10 30 20 30
CROSSVILLE 66 84 68 84 / 20 60 50 70
COLUMBIA 72 93 73 91 / 20 20 20 40
COOKEVILLE 69 86 70 86 / 20 40 50 60
JAMESTOWN 68 85 69 85 / 20 50 30 60
LAWRENCEBURG 71 90 72 89 / 20 20 20 40
MURFREESBORO 72 92 73 91 / 20 20 20 50
WAVERLY 72 92 72 91 / 10 20 20 30
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION.....SIZEMORE
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