423
FXUS64 KOHX 171046
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
546 AM CDT FRI JUL 17 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 534 AM CDT FRI JUL 17 2026
- DAILY ROUNDS OF SCATTERED STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. STRONG WINDS GUSTS AND HEAVY RAIN CAUSING LOCALIZED
FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE. THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS
FOR THE PLATEAU THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- HEAT INDICES WILL REACH THE LOW 100S FOR MANY AREAS WEST OF THE
CUMBERLAND PLATEAU INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TUESDAY WILL BE THE
HOTTEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH HEAT INDICES NEARING OR EXCEEDING
105 DEGREES FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
- SLIGHTLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR IS EXPECTED LATE NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1018 PM CDT THU JUL 16 2026
THE EVENING'S CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE FINALLY WINDING DOWN, WITH
ONLY ISOLATED CELLS STILL SHOWING UP ON RADAR. THE EVENING
SOUNDING FROM OHX CONTINUES TO SHOW DEEP INSTABILITY WITH THE
CURRENT AIRMASS, BUT ALSO WEAK LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR. MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES REMAIN ANEMIC, WHICH ONE WOULD EXPECT IN AN
ENVIRONMENT SO MOISTURE-LADEN. INDEED, PRECIPITABLE WATER IS A
TROPICAL-LIKE 2.02", WHICH ISN'T QUITE A DAILY MAX, BUT DOES
PLACE US ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE AND GIVES A PWAT+ VALUE OF 136,
MEANING THAT THE OBSERVED PWAT IS 136% OF THE DAILY MEAN. ANYWAY,
IT'S GOING TO BE ANOTHER HUMID NIGHT WITH PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING
DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING PERIOD. TOMORROW, RAIN AND
STORM CHANCES LOOK TO INCREASE, DESPITE PERSISTENT RIDGING AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO NUDGE UPWARD,
WHICH WILL SEND HEAT INDICES IN THE LOW 100S AT MANY SPOTS WEST OF
THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU. SO DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CONVECTION WILL
LIKELY BE A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD TOMORROW THAN TODAY, AND LOOK
FOR THIS TREND TO CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. BY SATURDAY, WE CAN
EXPECT SOME TROUGHING TO DEVELOPING IN THE UPPER FLOW, SO MEDIUM
RAIN AND STORM CHANCES WILL PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND, AND THERE IS
ALSO THE ADDITION OF A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS ON SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT, MAINLY FOR AREAS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF
I-24.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1018 PM CDT THU JUL 16 2026
EXPECT ADDITIONAL RAIN AND STORM CHANCES ON SUNDAY AS A SURFACE
BOUNDARY DROPS SOUTHWARD INTO OR COMPLETELY THROUGH MIDDLE
TENNESSEE. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO EXCEED SEASONAL NORMS BY
A DEGREE OR TWO, WITH HEAT INDICES TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW 100S
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER, THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL FINALLY DRY OUT CONSIDERABLY FOLLOWING SUNDAY'S
FROPA (FINGERS CROSSED!), SO RAIN AND STORM CHANCES NEXT WEEK WILL
BE A GREAT DEAL LOWER. TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK ON TUESDAY, WITH
MANY SPOTS REACHING THE MID 90S. THERE'S ALSO THE POSSIBILITY THAT
ENOUGH LOCATIONS WILL EXPERIENCE HEAT INDICES OF 105+ THAT A HEAT
ADVISORY WOULD BE NEEDED, BUT THAT'S STILL A SEVERAL DAYS AWAY. A
SECOND FROPA ON WEDNESDAY WOULD BRING TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN TO
SEASONAL NORMS AND ALSO KEEP HEAT INDICES BELOW 100 DEGREES FOR
THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 534 AM CDT FRI JUL 17 2026
A STAGNANT PATTERN CONTINUES WITH HOT AND VERY HUMID CONDITIONS
AND GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
DEVELOP WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND THERE WILL BE PATCHY FOG/STRATUS
AT NIGHT. SOME OF THE STORMS WILL CONTAIN VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
GUSTY WINDS. PROB30 GROUPS WILL BE INCLUDED FOR ALL TERMINALS.
OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THE DAYTIME HOURS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 90 74 92 74 / 70 20 40 50
CLARKSVILLE 89 74 91 75 / 50 10 30 40
CROSSVILLE 85 69 85 69 / 60 20 60 50
COLUMBIA 89 72 91 73 / 60 20 30 40
COOKEVILLE 86 71 87 71 / 60 30 70 60
JAMESTOWN 86 70 86 70 / 70 20 60 60
LAWRENCEBURG 88 71 90 72 / 70 20 40 50
MURFREESBORO 90 73 92 74 / 70 20 40 50
WAVERLY 89 73 91 73 / 40 10 20 40
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM....ROSE
AVIATION.....13
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