147
FXUS64 KOHX 130516
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1216 AM CDT WED MAY 13 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1216 AM CDT WED MAY 13 2026
- LOW CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR STORM WEDNESDAY EAST OF I-65. NO
SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED.
- HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S THROUGH FRIDAY, WARMING INTO THE
UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S THIS WEEKEND.
- DROUGHT CONTINUES WITH VERY LITTLE RAINFALL EXPECTED THROUGH THE
NEXT 7 DAYS.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1031 PM CDT TUE MAY 12 2026
ANOTHER PLEASANT EVENING IS WELL UNDER WAY ACROSS MIDDLE TN.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH TEMPERATURES THAT HAVE FALLEN INTO THE 60S
AREA WIDE AT FORECAST TIME. WE HAVE SEEN AN INFLUX OF HIGHER DEW
POINTS PULLING IN FROM THE SOUTH SINCE THIS AFTERNOON. WITHIN A
COUPLE OF HOURS, EVERYONE SHOULD BE SEEING DEW POINTS IN THE MID
50S. THIS INCREASE IS AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TOMORROW AFTERNOON. MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY
CONSISTENT SHOWING VERY LITTLE IN THE RAIN DEPARTMENT. CAMS CONTINUE
TO SHOW A LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS EAST OF I-65 STARTING AROUND
LUNCHTIME AND LASTING THROUGH SUNSET. I CAN'T RULE OUT A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER ON THE PLATEAU, BUT THIS WILL BE THE EXCEPTION RATHER THAN
THE RULE. A PALTRY 0.25" OR LESS IS EXPECTED AND MOST WON'T SEE RAIN
AT ALL. WHAT TOMORROW'S FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL DO, HOWEVER, IS KEEP
THE WARMER TEMPERATURES AT BAY FOR A COUPLE MORE DAYS. DRY
CONDITIONS WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AND THEN WE
START TO SEE THE BUMP HAPPEN.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1031 PM CDT TUE MAY 12 2026
WHILE FRIDAY'S TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE NEAR NORMAL, WE WILL CLIMB
JUST ABOVE. THIS IS JUST THE START OF THE FIRST WARM SPELL OF THE
YEAR. AFTERNOON HIGHS STARTING SATURDAY AND LASTING THROUGH AT LEAST
THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOW 90S FOR MOST AND
MID 80S ON THE PLATEAU. DEFINITELY THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES WE'VE
SEEN SINCE LAST SEPTEMBER.
RAIN CHANCES REMAIN LOW -- FOR NOW. MODELS STILL AREN'T IN GREAT
AGREEMENT, BUT THERE WILL BE A LOW CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR A RUMBLE
OF THUNDER LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. SHOULDN'T AMOUNT TO MUCH. THE GOOD
NEWS IS THAT WHILE THE OVERALL PATTERNS ARE SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT, RAIN
CHANCES SHOULD START TO PICK BACK UP FOR MIDDLE TN ON TUESDAY OF
NEXT WEEK AND COULD BE WITH US FOR A FEW DAYS. THIS WOULD BE IN
ALIGNMENT WITH THE CURRENT CPC 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK. LOTS TO WORK OUT
BETWEEN NOW AND THEN, BUT THINGS MAY BE LOOKING UP FOR THE MID-STATE
IN THE RAIN DEPARTMENT.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1216 AM CDT WED MAY 13 2026
NO CONCERNS FOR THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL STAY AROUND 5-10 KNOTS
OVERNIGHT AND INCREASE IN THE MORNING HOURS TO GUSTING AROUND 15
KNOTS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. THE HIGHEST GUSTS WILL BE AROUND 20Z,
WITH SOME SITES GETTING TO 20 KNOTS OUT OF THE NORTH AS A FRONT
PASSES THROUGH THE AREA. CSV AND SRB COULD SEE SOME AFTERNOON
SHRA, BUT CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH THIS TIME AROUND TO PUT
IT IN. WINDS WILL LESSEN BACK TO AROUND 5 KNOTS AROUND 02Z
THURSDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 81 51 75 50 / 0 0 0 0
CLARKSVILLE 79 47 75 50 / 0 0 0 0
CROSSVILLE 75 45 67 43 / 30 0 0 0
COLUMBIA 81 49 75 48 / 10 0 0 0
COOKEVILLE 76 46 69 45 / 20 0 0 0
JAMESTOWN 76 44 68 42 / 30 0 0 0
LAWRENCEBURG 80 49 74 47 / 10 0 0 0
MURFREESBORO 82 49 74 47 / 10 0 0 0
WAVERLY 81 49 76 51 / 0 0 0 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...UNGER
LONG TERM....UNGER
AVIATION.....HOLLEY
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