261
FXUS64 KOHX 111139
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
639 AM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 633 AM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
- A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE
UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY.
- THERE'S A "SLIGHT RISK" (LEVEL 2 OF 5) FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DAMAGING
WINDS ARE THE MAIN CONCERN.
- DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK, BUT WITH ISOLATED AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1009 PM CDT FRI JUL 10 2026
ALL IS QUIET ACROSS MIDDLE TN FOR THE TIME BEING. TO OUR NORTH AND
WEST ARE THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES SINKING
SOUTH. THE EXPECTATION IS FOR SCATTERED NON-SEVERE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING ALONG THE GUST FRONT
THAT'S CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH WESTERN KY. ANY STORM WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL AND COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED
FLOODING CONCERNS.
ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH TOMORROW WITH COVERAGE PEAKING IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS AN MCV INTERACTS WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND THIS
MOISTURE-RICH AIRMASS. SPC HAS MIDDLE TN IN A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL
2/5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER WITH THE PRIMARY CONCERN BEING DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS. CONFIDENCE IN ROTATING UPDRAFTS IS LOW AND MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES DON'T LOOK OVERLY IMPRESSIVE TO SUPPORT MUCH OF A HAIL
THREAT. ON SUNDAY, A BOUNDARY WILL STALL OUT ACROSS THE AREA AND
SUSTAIN OUR CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE BIGGEST CONCERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
AN ADDITIONAL 1-3" EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA. LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN STRONGER AND/OR TRAINING STORMS, WHICH
COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. THE AXIS OF WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN
WILL FALL IS HARD TO PIN DOWN AS IT HEAVILY DEPENDS ON BOUNDARY
INTERACTIONS. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF MIDDLE
TENNESSEE UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1009 PM CDT FRI JUL 10 2026
OUR ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK AS A BUILDING
UPPER-RIDGE TO OUR WEST CUTS OFF A LOW OVER THE TN VALLEY. HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH
MONDAY.
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-RIDGE WILL HELP BRING DRIER CONDITIONS TO
THE AREA BY MID-WEEK. DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE EACH DAY, BUT COVERAGE WILL BE MUCH MORE ISOLATED.
WE'LL WARM BACK UP TO THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S BY MID TO LATE WEEK WITH
TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT INDICES POSSIBLE THURSDAY - SATURDAY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 633 AM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
SCATTERED CONVECTION REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE WITH
ISO TS. THUNDER HAS BEEN EFFECTIVE IN FINDING TERMINALS THIS
MORNING, HOWEVER. ALL SITES HAVE TEMPOS THROUGH ~15Z, BUT SHRA MAY
REMAIN SCATTERED IN THE AREA LATE MORNING. WINDS PREVAIL SSW TO SW
WITH AFTERNOON GUSTS 15-20 KTS AT TIMES. ANOTHER ROUND OF TS
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING SO ALL
SITES HAVE ANOTHER TEMPO AS CHANCES ARE MEDIUM-HIGH THAT TIME
PERIOD. SOME TS COULD BE STRONG WITH SURFACE GUSTS 30+ KTS AND
BRIEF LIFR VIS.
AFTER CONVECTION WANES THIS EVENING, LATEST GUIDANCE IS GIVING AT
LEAST MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CIGS AFTER ~06Z WITH IFR
POTENTIAL AT BNA, MQY, AND CKV AFTER ~9Z. EXPECT TAF UPDATES WITH
RADAR TRENDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 90 71 84 70 / 80 70 70 60
CLARKSVILLE 89 70 83 69 / 70 70 60 50
CROSSVILLE 83 66 79 65 / 70 70 70 80
COLUMBIA 90 70 84 68 / 70 60 60 60
COOKEVILLE 85 68 81 67 / 80 70 60 70
JAMESTOWN 84 66 80 65 / 80 70 70 70
LAWRENCEBURG 88 69 83 68 / 60 50 60 60
MURFREESBORO 91 70 84 69 / 80 60 70 70
WAVERLY 89 69 83 68 / 70 60 60 50
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR TNZ005>011-023>034-
056>066-075-077>080-093>095.
SHORT TERM...CAHILL
LONG TERM....CAHILL
AVIATION.....SIZEMORE
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