512
FXUS64 KOHX 041048
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
548 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 545 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2026
- SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES OVER THE
PLATEAU THROUGH THURSDAY.
- SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND ACROSS THE WHOLE AREA, SEVERE WEATHER NOT EXPECTED BUT
HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE.
- SEASONAL HIGHS THROUGH WEEKEND WITH AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES
NEAR 100.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1041 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2026
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SET UP OVER THE SOUTHEAST US WITH A SURFACE
HIGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL INFLUENCE OUR
WEATHER TONIGHT AND THAT WILL BRING QUIET CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES. THE HIGH HAS BROUGHT MID-LEVEL SUBSTANCE AND AN
ABUNDANT AMOUNT OF DRY AIR ALOFT. THIS WILL KEEP THE FOG POTENTIAL
LOW TONIGHT WITH JUST A LOW CHANCE FOR SOME PATCHY FOG OVER THE
PLATEAU MAINLY IN FOG PRONE AREAS. LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE MID
60S.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL START TO WOBBLE NORTHWARD TUESDAY. THIS
WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS ONCE AGAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING MAINLY TO THE PLATEAU REGION. CAPE PROFILE WILL
REMAIN TALL AND THIN WHICH WILL KEEP THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LOW.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL START TO GET PHASED BACK INTO THE FLOW ON
WEDNESDAY AS THE BERMUDA HIGH PUSHES WEST AND AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER DAY OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH THE BEST CHANCES ALONG AND EAST OF I-65.
POOR LAPSE RATES AND SIMILAR CAPE PROFILES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ON
WEDNESDAY KEEPING THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES OVERALL LOW. HIGHS ON
TUESDAY WILL TICK UP SOME PUSHING BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
WE WARM A FEW MORE DEGREES ON WEDNESDAY WITH A FEW LOWER 90S
POSSIBLE.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1041 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2026
AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATE PART OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WE WILL
SEE EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES SPIN AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SET UP
TO OUR EAST. THIS WILL BRING PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE AREA. THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES ARE FAVORED IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENINGS. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PUSH HIGHER
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION WITH DEW POINTS RISING INTO THE LOW TO
MID 70S. THIS WILL INCREASE AFTERNOON CAPE AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE MORE LIKELY. WE WILL LACK SHEAR AND FORCING WILL BE MARGINAL,
THIS WILL KEEP THE SEVERE THREAT VERY LOW. PWATS WILL PUSH UP
ABOVE 1.75" AND HEAVY RAIN WILL BE LIKELY WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
HIGHS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE IN THE LOWER 90S AND WITH THE
INCREASED MOISTURE AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE NEAR 100
AFTER THURSDAY.
WE WON'T SEE ANY MAJOR CHANGES IN THE WEATHER PATTERN AS WE HEAD
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES
WILL WEAKEN AND THAT WILL ALLOW A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE WEST TO BUILD EAST SOME. THIS WILL PUSH HIGHS INTO THE LOW TO
MID 90S WITH AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES ABOVE 100. RAIN CHANCES
WILL COME DOWN SOME AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR EAST FLATTENS
AND PUSHES SOUTH BUT STILL COULD SEE A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 545 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2026
FOG AND LOW STRATUS WILL MIX OUT AT CSV/SRB BY 14Z ALLOWING FOR
VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN. BNA/MQY/CKV WILL REMAIN VFR FOR THE TAF
PERIOD. FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AGAIN AT CSV/SRB AFTER 05/06Z.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS FOR THE FORECAST
PERIOD WITH A NORTHERLY COMPONENT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 90 68 90 72 / 10 10 30 10
CLARKSVILLE 88 68 91 71 / 0 0 10 0
CROSSVILLE 84 66 83 66 / 40 20 70 20
COLUMBIA 90 69 90 70 / 20 10 30 10
COOKEVILLE 85 68 85 68 / 30 10 60 10
JAMESTOWN 86 67 84 67 / 30 10 60 10
LAWRENCEBURG 87 68 88 69 / 20 10 30 10
MURFREESBORO 90 70 90 71 / 20 10 30 10
WAVERLY 88 68 90 70 / 0 0 10 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...MUELLER
LONG TERM....MUELLER
AVIATION.....REAGAN
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