430
FXUS64 KOHX 161729
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1229 PM CDT THU JUL 16 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1223 PM CDT THU JUL 16 2026
- LOOK FOR INCREASING RAIN AND STORM CHANCES AS WE HEAD TOWARD THE
WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT. SOME STORMS MAY PRODUCE
HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS. MINOR LOCALIZED FLOODING
AND PONDING IS POSSIBLE.
- TEMPERATURES INCREASE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ELEVATED
HUMIDITY LEADING TO AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES IN THE LOW 100S WEST
OF THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU STARTING FRIDAY.
- TUESDAY WILL BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH HEAT INDICES
NEARING OR EXCEEDING 105 DEGREES FOR MOST OF THE AREA.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1108 AM CDT THU JUL 16 2026
LARGELY A PERSISTENCE FORECAST IS UNDERWAY FOR MIDDLE TENNESSEE.
WEAK SYNOPTIC FORCING COUPLED WITH HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT (PWATS
AROUND 2 INCHES, ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR MID JULY) HAS
SPARKED TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONVECTION. THESE ARE VERY SLOW-MOVING
SHOWERS AND STORMS DUE TO THE WEAK STEERING FLOW, SO LOCALIZED
FLOODING WILL BE A RISK WITH ANY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. TEMPERATURES
WILL HOLD STEADY NEAR NORMAL TODAY, BUT BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR A
WARMER PATTERN CHANGE STARTING FRIDAY. AS A 594 DAM MIDLEVEL RIDGE
STARTS TO ENCROACH ON THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS FRIDAY AFTERNOON,
TEMPERATURES BEGIN THEIR SLOW CLIMB.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1108 AM CDT THU JUL 16 2026
WE SHOULD STAY BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA (HEAT INDEX OF 105F+)
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BUT WILL START SEEING MORE FREQUENT HEAT
INDICES IN THE TRIPLE DIGITS. POPS ARE ALSO ON THE RISE THIS
WEEKEND AS A RESULT OF A FEW SHORTWAVE SYSTEMS EMBEDDED IN THE
MAIN FLOW. A MORE NOTEWORTHY FEATURE IS FORECAST TO SWEEP THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING, BRINGING A WAVE OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MIDDLE TENNESSEE. INITIAL LOOK AT
THE PARAMETER SPACE INDICATES A VERY WEAKLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT,
SUGGESTING OUR PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS ON THE
STORMS' OUTFLOWS. LAPSE RATES LOOK QUITE POOR (AROUND 5 DEGC/KM),
MITIGATING THE HAIL THREAT. MUCH OF THE AREA WILL SEE SOME TYPE
OF PRECIPITATION AS THIS FEATURE MOVES THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT, BUT THE BULK OF THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE CONFINED
TO AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF I-24.
THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD CERTAINLY LOOKS TO BE
TUESDAY; MIDLEVEL RIDGING COMBINED WITH AN APPROACHING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AT THE SURFACE WILL MOST LIKELY CAUSE MUGGY AIR TO POOL
ALONG THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE FRONT ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
LEAD TO DANGEROUS HEAT AND HUMIDITY SENDING HEAT INDICES AT OR
ABOVE 105 DEGREES ON TUESDAY, SO WE WILL BE MONITORING THE NEED
FOR HEAT HEADLINES. AFTER THIS FRONT PASSES, TEMPERATURES FINALLY
RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL IN THE UPPER 80S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CDT THU JUL 16 2026
SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DIMINISH AFTER
APPROXIMATELY 01Z. TONIGHT, EXPECT LIGHT SW WINDS AND SCATTERED
HIGH CLOUDS FOR ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT SRB AND CSV. PATCHY IFR
CIG/VIS IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THESE TERMINALS AFTER 06Z WITH
RECOVERY TO VFR BY 13Z.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 74 90 74 91 / 10 60 30 50
CLARKSVILLE 73 89 73 91 / 10 50 20 40
CROSSVILLE 70 85 69 84 / 10 60 20 80
COLUMBIA 72 90 72 91 / 10 50 20 50
COOKEVILLE 72 86 71 86 / 20 50 30 80
JAMESTOWN 71 86 70 85 / 20 60 30 80
LAWRENCEBURG 71 88 71 89 / 10 50 30 60
MURFREESBORO 73 90 73 91 / 10 60 30 70
WAVERLY 72 89 72 90 / 10 30 20 30
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...DIRKES
LONG TERM....DIRKES
AVIATION.....CAHILL
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