358
FXUS64 KOHX 251134
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
634 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2026
..NEW AVIATION, KEY MESSAGES
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 630 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2026
- EXPECT AREAS OF DENSE FOG GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF I-65
THROUGH 9 AM THIS MORNING. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT.
- LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS, MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN
MIDDLE TN AND THE PLATEAU, THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. SEVERE
WEATHER NOT EXPECTED.
- STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT
WITH ALL HAZARDS POSSIBLE. STAY TUNED FOR FORECAST UPDATES THIS
WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1052 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2026
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS HAVE SPROUTED UP EAST OF I-65 THIS EVENING AS
AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE SWINGS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.
SIMULTANEOUSLY, AREAS OF DENSE FOG HAVE BEEN OBSERVED WEST OF
I-65 AS CIRRUS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO THIN OUT. CAMS HAVE LATCHED ON
TO THE POTENTIAL FOR LIMITED VISIBILITY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS IN THESE AREAS, SO BE CAUTIOUS IF TRAVELLING
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED THROUGH
9AM SATURDAY.
AS DAYTIME HEATING RAMPS INSTABILITY UP TOMORROW, A FEW SCATTERED
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRIFTS SOUTH.
CONVECTION LOOKS MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA,
BUT A FEW ISOLATED CELLS COULD POP ELSEWHERE. OVERALL, POP CHANCES
WILL RANGE FROM 30-60% DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON, AND ANY STORMS
THAT DO DEVELOP WILL NOT CARRY A SEVERE RISK - JUST BRING
BENEFICIAL RAIN AND SOME THUNDER. SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL BUILD IN
BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON, STIFLING PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH SUNDAY AND
WARMING THINGS BACK INTO THE MID 80S. SO OVERALL, A PRETTY NICE
WEEKEND IS ON TAP, JUST A BIT MUGGIER AS ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO BUILD IN AHEAD OF OUR NEXT STORM SYSTEM.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1052 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2026
BY MONDAY, OUR WEATHER WILL TURN ABOUT MORE ACTIVE AS A STRONG
SYSTEM BRING A CHANCE FOR ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER TO MIDDLE
TN. THAT MEANS HAIL, STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS, AND TORNADOES. THE
SEVERE THREAT WILL BE GREATEST ALONG AND WEST OF I-65, THOUGH
THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME SEVERE RISK FOR ALL OF MIDDLE TN. EXACT
TIMING DETAILS ARE STILL BEING WORKED OUT, BUT THERE IS AN
INCREASING SIGNAL THAT THIS COULD BE A NIGHTTIME EVENT. WHETHER
STORMS OCCUR DURING THE DAY OR NIGHT, WE ENCOURAGE YOU TO REVIEW
YOUR SAFETY PLANS NOW JUST IN CASE.
THE SETUP: A SHARP, NEGATIVELY-TILTED SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH OVER
THE PLAINS WITH A LOW PRESSURE CENTER DEVELOPING AT THE SURFACE.
AS THIS LOW MOVES NORTHEAST, IT WILL DEEPEN AND THE LOW-LEVEL JET
WILL RESPOND, INCREASING TO BETWEEN 40-50 KTS. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL PULL WARM, MOIST, UNSTABLE AIR IN, INCREASING DEWPOINTS AND
IN TURN, INSTABILITY. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST DEW POINT
TEMPS WILL SURGE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S MONDAY AFTERNOON,
PRIMARILY ALONG AND WEST OF I-65. BULK SHEAR WILL ALSO TAKE A BIG
JUMP TO AROUND 40-50 KTS WITH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER 7 C/KM,
LENDING TO LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL. AS THE FRONT NEARS, LOW-LEVEL
HELICITY VALUES WILL INCREASE TO BETWEEN 250-350, LENDING TO A
TORNADO THREAT. EAST OF I-65, THERE IS A PRETTY BIG DROP IN ALL OF
THE AFOREMENTIONED PARAMETERS, BUT THOSE INGREDIENTS ARE STILL
THERE, SO DON'T LET YOUR GUARD DOWN. MODELS CONTINUE TO FAVOR AN
MCS-TYPE SETUP FOR OUR AREA WITH A MUCH LOWER CHANCE FOR ANY
DISCRETE CELLS AS A DECENT CAP WILL BE IN PLACE DURING THE
AFTERNOON. SHOULD THIS BE THE OUTCOME, DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS, THOUGH WITH
INCREASING LOW-LEVEL HELICITIES, WE WILL ABSOLUTELY HAVE TO WATCH
FOR ANY SPINNERS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE LINE. WE WILL ALSO
BE WATCHING OUT FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING AS PWAT VALUES WILL BE
CLIMATOLOGICALLY HIGH - NEARING MAX VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
AROUND 1.50".
THE FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH TUESDAY, KEEPING LINGERING SHOWER
ACTIVITY AROUND THROUGH THE DAY. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO FILTER
IN RATHER QUICKLY BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM, BRINGING HIGH POP
CHANCES BACK BETWEEN 70-80% WEDNESDAY. FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE
ZONAL BEYOND WEDNESDAY WITH WEAK SHORTWAVES RIPPLING THROUGH.
THIS WILL KEEP AT LEAST 20-40% POP IN EACH DAY THROUGH FRIDAY, BUT
SEVERE WEATHER DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY WITH THESE WAVES AS
PARAMETERS ON THE WHOLE ARE UNFAVORABLE. THE GOOD NEWS IS ALL OF
THIS UNSETTLEDNESS WILL HELP OUT WITH THE ONGOING DROUGHT
CONDITIONS. A COUPLE OF INCHES WITH ALL OF THE SYSTEMS COMBINED
APPEAR LIKELY, SO WHILE IT WON'T TOTALLY CLOSE THE DEFICIT, IT
WILL CERTAINLY HELP.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 629 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2026
CONDITIONS ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE ARE QUITE VARIABLE THIS
MORNING. LIFR CIG/VIS REMAINS AT CKV THROUGH ~14Z. BNA AND MQY ARE
IN GOOD SHAPE WITH VFR, BUT MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH 15Z,
SO A TEMPO WAS ADDED TO THOSE TAFS. SRB AND CSV HAVE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR SHRA THIS AFTERNOON, SO A TEMPO WAS ADDED THERE AS
WELL. OTHERWISE, CLEARING IS EXPECTED AT CKV, BNA, AND MQY THROUGH
THE DAY WITH NE WINDS 5-8 KTS. IT'LL BE LATER IN THE DAY FOR
CLEARING AT THE EASTERN SITES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 79 56 83 59 / 20 0 0 10
CLARKSVILLE 80 55 82 58 / 10 0 0 10
CROSSVILLE 73 50 78 54 / 50 10 0 0
COLUMBIA 78 54 83 58 / 30 0 0 10
COOKEVILLE 75 53 79 56 / 30 10 0 0
JAMESTOWN 75 51 78 53 / 30 0 0 0
LAWRENCEBURG 76 53 81 58 / 40 0 0 10
MURFREESBORO 78 54 83 58 / 30 0 0 10
WAVERLY 79 57 83 61 / 10 0 0 10
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR TNZ005>009-
023>027-029-056>060-093-094.
SHORT TERM...BAGGETT
LONG TERM....BAGGETT
AVIATION.....SIZEMORE
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