926
FXUS64 KOHX 301053
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
553 AM CDT WED SEP 30 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 552 AM CDT WED SEP 30 2026
- WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY WITH HIGHS
REACHING THE LOW 80S TO MID 90S.
- MEDIUM TO HIGH RAIN CHANCES DEVELOP FRIDAY AND CONTINUE INTO
SATURDAY. RAIN CHANCES DECREASE ON SUNDAY WITH COOLER, DRIER
WEATHER THEREAFTER.
- HIGH CHANCE FOR MORE THAN 1 INCH OF RAIN THIS WEEKEND WITH THE
HEAVIEST RAIN EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1115 PM CDT TUE SEP 29 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE EASTWARD THROUGH THE
SHORT-TERM WHICH WILL FAVOR SOUTHERLY WINDS AND SOME
AMPLIFICATION OF THE MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE. WE'LL SEE A WARMING
TREND THROUGH THURSDAY AS A RESULT, WITH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMS. CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS ARE A FEW DEGREES SHORT OF
RECORDS ON THURSDAY, THOUGH. WE'LL ALSO REMAIN DRY THANKS TO
SLOWER MOISTURE RECOVERY AND LACK OF FORCING FOR ASCENT, THOUGH A
LOW CHANCE FOR RAIN CREEPS INTO THE FORECAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING WITH PRE-FRONTAL MOISTURE ADVECTION MOVING IN FROM
THE WEST.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1115 PM CDT TUE SEP 29 2026
RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE TO INCREASE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY THANKS TO
THE PRESENCE OF DEEPENING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND AN
APPROACHING SOUTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE ALONG WITH A COLD FRONT OF
NORTHERN STREAM ORIGINS. WHILE THE DISTURBANCE ALOFT IS PROGGED
TO LIFT/SHEAR NORTHEASTWARD THROUGHOUT FRIDAY, WHICH WOULD REDUCE
DYNAMICS ALOFT, THE LINGERING/STALLING FRONT AND ANOMALOUS
MOISTURE AXIS WILL REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE INTO
SATURDAY FOSTERING ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY. INSTABILITY
VALUES ARE LOW (MLCAPE <750 J/KG) DUE TO SATURATED VERTICAL
PROFILES AND POOR LAPSE RATES, SO STORMS SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED.
LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO PROGRESS
SOUTHEAST AGAIN ON SUNDAY WITH INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
TO OUR NORTH, WITH PERHAPS ANOTHER REINFORCING COLD FRONT MOVING
IN AS WELL. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD (INTO MID NEXT
WEEK) WOULD TRANSITION TO COOLER, STABLE WEATHER.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 552 AM CDT WED SEP 30 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. AN
APPROACHING SYSTEM WILL INCREASE HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER AND BEGIN
TO TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. SOUTH WINDS MAY INTERMITTENTLY
GUST UP TO 20 KTS IN THE AFTERNOON BOTH TODAY AND THURSDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 91 68 94 72 / 0 0 0 10
CLARKSVILLE 92 66 94 70 / 0 0 0 40
CROSSVILLE 83 59 85 63 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBIA 92 65 94 69 / 0 0 0 10
COOKEVILLE 86 65 89 68 / 0 0 0 0
JAMESTOWN 84 62 86 66 / 0 0 0 0
LAWRENCEBURG 90 64 92 68 / 0 0 0 10
MURFREESBORO 92 66 95 70 / 0 0 0 10
WAVERLY 88 66 90 70 / 0 0 0 40
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...SIZEMORE
LONG TERM....SIZEMORE
AVIATION.....DIRKES
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page