196
FXUS64 KOHX 201148
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
648 AM CDT THU AUG 20 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 642 AM CDT THU AUG 20 2026
- THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OUT OF 5) FOR SEVERE STORMS
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING ALONG AND NORTH OF I-40. DAMAGING WINDS
AND HEAVY RAIN ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS.
- A NEW MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5) FOR SEVERE STORMS IS OUT
FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAINLY SOUTH OF I-40 AND
ALONG THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU.
- DRIER CONDITIONS WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
THIS WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1045 PM CDT WED AUG 19 2026
SHORT RANGE MODELS HAVE BEEN A COMPLETE MESS HANDLING UPSTREAM
STORMS OVER MO AND THIS HAS COMPLICATED OUR STORM FORECAST FOR
TONIGHT. LATEST TRENDS BRING STORMS IN LATER THAN OUR PREVIOUS
FORECAST, PERHAPS AS LATE AS 2 OR 3 AM CDT IN OUR NORTHWEST. HOW
FAR SOUTH STORMS DEVELOP IS ALSO A BIT UNCERTAIN, BUT EVEN IF THE
MAIN MCS TRACKS UP IN KY, IT SHOULD STILL PUSH SOME OUTFLOW STORMS
DOWN INTO THE MID STATE. OUR FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES MAY NOT SEE
ANY RAIN THROUGH THE NIGHT.
A SEVERE RISK CONTINUES WITH THE STORMS, MAINLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
A BRIEF TORNADO CANNOT BE FULLY RULED OUT, BUT STORMS SHOULD BE
OUTFLOW DOMINANT WITH RELATIVELY STABLE BOUNDARY CONDITIONS HERE
COMPARED TO UPSTREAM AREAS. LOCAL HEAVY RAIN WILL BE A CONCERN,
MAINLY IN THE NORTHWEST.
POCKETS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LINGER INTO THE MORNING AS A
DIFFUSE FRONTAL ZONE APPROACHES THE AREA. MUCH OF MIDDAY WILL BE
RAIN-FREE. THEN, AFTER THE ATMOSPHERE RECOVERS, ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED STORMS WILL FORM ALONG THE WEAK FRONTAL ZONE AS ANOTHER
IMPULSE CROSSES THE AREA. THIS TIME THE GREATEST SEVERE STORM AND
HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AND
PLATEAU COUNTIES. LOCAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE CONCERN
IN THE AFTERNOON AS CAPES CLIMB ABOVE 2000 WITH DCAPE VALUES OVER
1K.
SOME ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WITH A LOW CHANCE FOR MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS, MAINLY SOUTH
AND PLATEAU.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1045 PM CDT WED AUG 19 2026
SLIGHTLY LESS HUMID AIR WILL MOVE IN WITH TEMPERATURES STAYING
AROUND NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. RAIN
CHANCES LOOK VERY LOW FOR THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER HIGH WILL PUSH
EASTWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH MEANS TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY
WILL START TO CREEP UP TOWARD MID NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 642 AM CDT THU AUG 20 2026
A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS IS MOVING ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE THIS
MORNING AND TS IS ONGOING AT BNA, MQY, AND CKV. THERE ARE STILL A
FEW MORE INTENSE STORM CORES IN THE REGION OF THESE AIRFIELDS AS
WELL, SO MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH ~14Z ALONG WITH
VARIABLE WIND DIRECTIONS. SRB AND CSV ARE ON THE WEAKER SIDE OF
THE SYSTEM, SO ONLY -RA FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUT BY ~15Z AT ALL SITES AND A VFR DAY IS
FORECAST WITH LIGHT W TO SW WINDS. MAINTAINING PROB30S FOR BNA,
MQY, SRB, AND CSV FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING STORM POTENTIAL.
OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION, GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTIVE OF FOG DEVELOPMENT
TONIGHT AT ALL SITES, THEN A TRANSITION TO MVFR CIGS BY DAYBREAK
TOMORROW. LIKELY THIS REMAINS MORE PATCHY NEAR BNA AND MQY. I WENT
MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH VIS AT SRB AND CSV AND THERE'S BETTER
CHANCES FOR IFR VIS/CIG AT THESE AIRFIELDS OVERNIGHT INTO
TOMORROW MORNING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 91 69 90 65 / 40 30 10 0
CLARKSVILLE 89 70 89 66 / 50 10 0 0
CROSSVILLE 86 66 84 63 / 50 30 30 0
COLUMBIA 93 70 91 67 / 40 30 0 0
COOKEVILLE 86 68 85 65 / 60 30 20 0
JAMESTOWN 85 67 84 64 / 60 40 30 0
LAWRENCEBURG 92 69 89 66 / 40 30 10 0
MURFREESBORO 93 70 91 67 / 40 40 10 0
WAVERLY 90 70 89 67 / 30 10 0 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION.....SIZEMORE
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page