812
FXUS64 KOHX 311130
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
630 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 626 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2026
- WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK.
- MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY.
- THE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS OR FLOODING IS VERY LOW.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1050 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2026
WARM SOUTH BREEZES WILL KEEP OUR EARLY SPRING WARMING TREND GOING
FOR TUESDAY. HIGHS WERE AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL YESTERDAY AND
TUESDAY WILL BE AROUND 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. SOUTH WINDS WILL
KICK UP AGAIN WITH FREQUENT GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH. LIKE YESTERDAY,
SKIES WILL VARY WITH A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN THROUGH THE DAY. A VERY
ISOLATED SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS, BUT
PROBABILITIES APPEAR TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY, MID LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL START
TO FALL SLIGHTLY AS ZONAL FLOW ALOFT BECOMES SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL
OPEN THE DOOR FOR INCREASING ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND GREATER
INSTABILITY. WE WILL SEE LOW CHANCES (SCATTERED COVERAGE) FOR
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WITH COVERAGE PEAKING IN THE HEAT OF THE AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1050 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2026
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP US IN A WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID
PATTERN GOING INTO THURSDAY. THERE WILL BE LOW-END SHOWER CHANCES
DURING THE DAY, THEN SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE
THURSDAY EVENING INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS A WEAKENING FRONT MOVES
INTO THE AREA. DYNAMICS AND INSTABILITY ARE UNIMPRESSIVE, SO JUST
GENERALIZED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH VERY
LOW RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS.
WE DROP TO LOW COVERAGE OF DIURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS AGAIN ON
FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY, THEN THE BIGGEST WAVE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS COMES LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL
BE HIGH WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACHING 1.5", BUT
OVERALL DYNAMICS REMAIN UNIMPRESSIVE.
FORECAST RAINFALL TOTALS FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY REMAIN IN
THE 1 TO 2 INCH RANGE. ALTHOUGH THIS WILL HELP WITH ON-GOING DRY
CONDITIONS, IT WILL NOT BE QUITE THE SOAKER THAT MANY OF US WOULD
HOPE FOR. THERE WILL BE A LOT OF DRY TIMES IN BETWEEN THE SHOWER
AND STORM EPISODES. THANKFULLY THE UNIMPRESSIVE SETUP WILL KEEP US
FROM ANY NOTABLE FLOOD RISK.
OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES LATE WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL STAY
QUITE WARM. OUR WARMEST DAY SHOULD BE THURSDAY. THE CURRENT RECORD
HIGH AT BNA FOR APRIL 2 IS 87 SET IN 2012 AND THAT IS OUR LATEST
OFFICIAL FORECAST HIGH AS WELL.
AFTER PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT SUNDAY, EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOKS DRY
AND COOLER- JUST A LITTLE ON THE COOL SIDE OR NORMAL FOR A COUPLE
OF DAYS BEFORE MILDER AIR RETURNS MIDWEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 626 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2026
SCATTERED TO BROKEN CU WILL DEVELOP THIS MORNING WITH CIGS AROUND
3000 FT AT THE TERMINALS. THE CIGS WILL BE GREATER THAN 4000 FT BY
17Z AT ALL TAF SITES. LLWS WILL CONTINUE AT BNA/MQY/CKV FOR THE
NEXT 2 HOURS BEFORE S/SSW SURFACE WINDS INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS WITH
GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
DECREASE TO AROUND 5 KTS AFTER 01/00Z.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 83 64 84 64 / 10 20 40 20
CLARKSVILLE 83 64 85 64 / 0 10 30 10
CROSSVILLE 77 60 78 59 / 10 20 50 20
COLUMBIA 82 63 83 63 / 10 20 30 20
COOKEVILLE 79 62 80 62 / 10 20 50 30
JAMESTOWN 79 60 80 60 / 10 20 50 20
LAWRENCEBURG 81 63 82 63 / 10 20 30 20
MURFREESBORO 82 64 84 64 / 10 20 40 20
WAVERLY 82 65 84 66 / 0 10 30 10
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION.....REAGAN
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