029
FXUS64 KOHX 280542
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1242 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1242 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2026
- EXPECT DANGEROUS HEAT THROUGH TODAY WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES OF
105 TO 110+ DEGREES MOST AREAS WEST OF THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU.
- THERE IS A LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY, MAINLY
ALONG AND NEAR THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU.
- AFTER TUESDAY, NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH MORE TOLERABLE
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1045 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2026
STORMS COMING DOWN OUT OF KENTUCKY CONTINUE TO FIZZLE OUT, AND THE
HRRR HAS CONSISTENTLY SHOWN VERY LITTLE ACTIVITY ACROSS MIDDLE
TENNESSEE DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. SO WE'RE NOT TOO CONCERNED
ABOUT CONVECTION HOLDING TOGETHER LONG ENOUGH TO MAKE IT ACROSS
THE STATE LINE. TOMORROW, THERE ARE LOW TO MEDIUM STORM CHANCES
MAINLY ALONG AND NEAR THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU AS A MUCH-NEEDED AND
MUCH-WELCOME SURFACE BOUNDARY PUSHES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE MID
STATE LATE IN THE DAY. SOME STORMS TOMORROW MAY CONTAIN GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL, BUT THE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS IS VERY
LOW. TUESDAY WILL BE LAST DAY FOR EXCESSIVE HEAT. TEMPERATURES AND
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL DECREASE NOTICEABLY FOLLOWING TOMORROW'S
FROPA. WEDNESDAY WILL BE MUCH MORE PLEASANT.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1045 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2026
RAIN AND STORM CHANCES THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK WILL BE
, WHILE TEMPERATURES STAY CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS AND HUMIDITY
LEVELS REMAIN MANAGEABLE. IN FACT TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD
REMARKABLY STEADY AT LEAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH NO MORE
EXCESSIVE HEAT ON THE HORIZON. HOWEVER, RAIN AND STORM CHANCES
WILL RETURN TO MIDDLE TENNESSEE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY, AND
LAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND, AS AN UNUSUALLY DEEP (FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR) LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS EASTWARD OUT OF THE GREAT PLAINS
AND RIGHT ACROSS THE MID SOUTH. AT THIS TIME, WE ARE NOT PEGGED
FOR SEVERE STORMS IN THE DAYS 4-8 OUTLOOK FROM THE SPC.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1242 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2026
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE VFR FOR THE TAF PERIOD, WITH CALM OR LIGHT
WINDS THROUGH 12Z. AROUND 18Z, WINDS WILL PICK UP TO AROUND 10
KNOTS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS. THESE WINDS
WILL LESSEN BETWEEN 00Z AND 6Z THE 29TH.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 97 72 89 65 / 10 10 0 0
CLARKSVILLE 96 69 88 65 / 0 0 0 0
CROSSVILLE 89 66 83 59 / 40 10 0 0
COLUMBIA 97 71 90 65 / 0 10 0 0
COOKEVILLE 91 67 84 62 / 30 10 0 0
JAMESTOWN 90 66 83 60 / 40 0 0 0
LAWRENCEBURG 96 71 88 64 / 10 10 0 0
MURFREESBORO 98 71 89 64 / 20 10 0 0
WAVERLY 96 71 89 65 / 0 10 0 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TNZ005-006-
023>025-056>058-093-094.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TNZ007>009-026>030-
059>062-075-095.
SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM....ROSE
AVIATION.....HOLLEY
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