462  
FXUS64 KOHX 141745  
AFDOHX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN  
1245 PM CDT MON JUL 14 2025  
   
..NEW AVIATION
 
 
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
UPDATED AT 1239 PM CDT MON JUL 14 2025  
 
- AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE  
WEEK.  
 
- ALTHOUGH THE SEVERE WEATHER RISK IS LOW, HEAVY RAINFALL, GUSTY  
WINDS, AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL BE POSSIBLE.  
 
- WARMING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE THIS WEEK AS MANY LOCATIONS WILL  
NEAR OR SURPASS 100F FOR HEAT INDICIES.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
 
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 1054 AM CDT MON JUL 14 2025  
 
SUMMERTIME CONTINUES. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 80S AT THIS HOUR WITH  
A FEW SHOWERS STARTING TO SHOW UP. STORM COVERAGE WILL INCREASE  
AS WE MOVE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THERE IS A REMNANT MCV  
SITTING IN EASTERN ARKANSAS THAT WILL DRIFT EASTWARD. THIS COULD  
FIRE UP SOME OF THE ACTIVITY FOR THE AFTERNOON. IN REGARDS TO  
SEVERE STORMS, THE THREAT WILL REMAIN LOW BUT SOME GUSTY WINDS  
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS. PWAT VALUES REMAIN  
1.8-2" WHICH WILL AID IN SOME HEAVY RAIN. OUTSIDE OF LOCALIZED  
STREET FLOODING, THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT IS LOW. AREAS OF PATCHY  
FOG WILL DEVELOP AGAIN OVERNIGHT. TUESDAY LOOKS PRETTY SIMILAR TO  
TODAY WITH DIURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS. HIGHS FOR TODAY AND  
TOMORROW WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. A COUPLE LOCATIONS  
MAY CREEP INTO THE MID 90S ON TUESDAY DEPENDING ON THE HOW  
WIDESPREAD STORMS ARE. IF TEMPERATURES ARE ABLE TO GET INTO THE  
MID 90S ON TUESDAY, HEAT INDEX VALUES MAY EXCEED 105 DEGREES. I  
WILL NOT DO A HEAT ADVISORY BECAUSE MY CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH  
ENOUGH OF WIDESPREAD VALUES OVER 105.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM
 
 
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)  
ISSUED AT 1054 AM CDT MON JUL 14 2025  
 
THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN PRETTY STAGNANT THROUGH THE LONG  
TERM FORECAST. THERE IS A LOW THAT WILL WORK EASTWARD ACROSS THE  
NORTHERN GULF, BUT THAT SHOULD STAY FAR ENOUGH WEST OF MIDDLE  
TENNESSEE BEFORE IT MAKES THE NORTHERN TURN INLAND TO REALLY  
AFFECT OUR STORM COVERAGE. EXPECT THE DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION  
TO CONTINUE WITH HIGHS AND LOWS AROUND AVERAGE. WE'LL HAVE TO KEEP  
AN EYE ON AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES AS THEY MAY GET INTO THE  
105-110 RANGE ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
(18Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT MON JUL 14 2025  
 
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS ACROSS MIDDLE TN AIRFIELDS ARE VFR WITH LIGHT  
S TO SW WINDS AT ~5 KTS. SCT CUMULUS WITH DEVELOPING SHRA AND TSRA  
IS ALREADY OCCURING, AND I'VE HANDLED CKV/MQY WITH VCSH FOR NOW.  
ACTIVITY HAS DROPPED OFF SOMEWHAT NEAR BNA, BUT WILL BE WATCHING  
ACTIVITY MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST OVER THE COMING HOURS.  
OTHERWISE, MAINTAINED PROB30S FOR TSRA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON  
AT ALL TERMINALS MINUS CKV (TRANSITIONED TO TEMPO), BUT WILL  
UPDATE OTHERS ONCE RADAR TRENDS CAN BE ESTABLISHED. OVERNIGHT  
CONDITIONS WILL BE CALM, BUT EXPECT FG DEVELOPMENT AT SRB/CSV ONCE  
AGAIN. TOMORROW WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH ANOTHER AFTERNOON  
PERIOD OF CONVECTION.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
NASHVILLE 74 94 75 95 / 20 30 20 40  
CLARKSVILLE 73 91 74 93 / 30 50 20 40  
CROSSVILLE 68 89 69 88 / 10 40 20 60  
COLUMBIA 72 93 73 94 / 20 30 20 40  
COOKEVILLE 70 90 72 89 / 20 40 20 50  
JAMESTOWN 68 89 70 88 / 10 50 20 60  
LAWRENCEBURG 71 92 72 93 / 10 30 10 50  
MURFREESBORO 72 94 74 95 / 20 30 20 50  
WAVERLY 72 91 72 92 / 20 40 10 30  
 

 
   
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...REAGAN  
LONG TERM....REAGAN  
AVIATION.....SIZEMORE  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab TN Page Main Text Page