971
FXUS64 KOHX 211736
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1136 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1127 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2025
- PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. A COUPLE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT FRIDAY NIGHT.
- ANOTHER HIGH CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY.
- MILD TEMPERATURES LASTING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, THEN TURNING
SHARPLY COLDER BY THANKSGIVING.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1016 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2025
MORNING SHOWERS ARE EXITING THE PLATEAU WITH ONLY A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS REMAINING ACROSS MIDDLE TN. CLOUD COVER HAS BEEN PRETTY
CONSISTENT THROUGH THE MORNING, BUT WEBCAMS SHOW SOME BREAKS
STARTING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SW AS WE SEE INCREASED MIXING. AS
MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS UPDATE, SPC DOES HAVE OUR CWA UNDER A
MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER TODAY. THAT SAID,
THE ENVIRONMENT IS VERY CONDITIONAL AT THIS TIME. IF CLOUD COVER
MANAGES TO BREAK OUT EVEN MORE AND PROVIDE SOME ADDITIONAL SURFACE
HEATING, THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE BETTER FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS
THIS EVENING. FOR NOW, THE MESSAGE REMAINS THE SAME, THERE
REMAINS A LOW CHANCE FOR ONE OR TWO STRONG STORMS THROUGH THE
EVENING AND AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
TAKING A LOOK AT LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS, NOT MUCH CHANGE.
STILL SEEING WEAK CAPE AND POOR MID- LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THAT SAID,
THERE IS STRONG LOW- LEVEL SHEAR TODAY WHICH IS THE REASON FOR
THE LOW RISK FOR A FEW STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE.
SATURDAY THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH PUSHING MOST OF THE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE AREA. THERE WILL BE A LOW CHANCE FOR
SOME LINGERING POST FRONTAL SHOWERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON, BUT
MOSTLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR FOLKS.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1016 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2025
DRY WEATHER STICKS AROUND FOR THE WEEKEND BEFORE ANOTHER FRONT
BRINGS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MIDDLE TN MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. THIS SET UP WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO THURSDAY/FRIDAY AS AN
AREA LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO OUR NW. THIS WILL BRING ABOUT ANOTHER
1-2 INCHES OF RAIN. AS BEFORE, NOT SEEING MUCH OF A SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT WITH WEAK CAPE AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. AT THIS TIME, THE
MAIN COLD FRONT LOOKS TO PASS THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
BRING SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS TO 20-25 MPH THROUGH THE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON. MOSTLY DRY AND COLD WEATHER THEN DEVELOPS
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK GOING INTO THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY.
TUESDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE LOW 40S ACROSS THE NW AND
MID TO UPPER 40S ELSEWHERE. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT, TEMPERATURES DROP
A BIT MORE, INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S. THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK, OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE 20S AND 30S. FOR
NOW, THE COLDEST NIGHT LOOKS TO BE FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
POSSIBLY DROPPING INTO THE MID 20S.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1130 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2025
MOST AIRFIELDS, EXCEPT CKV, HAVE SEEN CIGS IMPROVE LATE MORNING
WITH A LITTLE "CLEARING" EVIDENT ON SATELLITE. I'M NOT CONFIDENT
THIS WILL LAST LONG (PERHAPS BACK TO MVFR SOON), THOUGH I'VE KEPT
PREVAILING CIGS VFR FOR BNA AND ADDED SHRA MENTION IN A PROB30
(AND TO OTHER TAF SITES AS WELL). WINDS PREVAIL S TO SW THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AT 5-10 KTS.
OVERNIGHT CONDITIONS ARE STILL CHALLENGING FROM A FORECAST
PERSPECTIVE THOUGH KEPT THEME OF MVFR/IFR CIGS 00-06Z AS WELL AS
TS MENTION AT CKV, BNA, AND MQY NEAR A FRONT. IFR CIGS ARE LIKELY
AFTER ~09Z WITH IMPROVEMENT ~15Z TOMORROW WHEN WINDS PREVAIL NW
TO N AT 5-10 KTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 69 59 68 45 / 70 70 10 0
CLARKSVILLE 68 56 63 40 / 90 60 10 0
CROSSVILLE 68 57 65 41 / 60 80 30 10
COLUMBIA 69 60 71 43 / 60 60 10 0
COOKEVILLE 68 58 65 42 / 70 80 30 0
JAMESTOWN 65 57 64 41 / 70 90 30 0
LAWRENCEBURG 69 60 71 44 / 50 60 10 0
MURFREESBORO 69 60 70 43 / 60 70 10 0
WAVERLY 69 56 64 42 / 90 60 10 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...CRAVENS
LONG TERM....CRAVENS
AVIATION.....SIZEMORE
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