148
FXUS64 KOHX 231934
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
234 PM CDT SAT MAR 23 2019
DISCUSSION
VERY DRY SURFACE CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
AREA IS CURRENTLY IMPACTING THE MID STATE. SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOW TO MID TEENS NEAR THE PLATEAU ALONG WITH UPPER TEENS TO
LOW 20S ELSEWHERE HAS DRIVEN MIN RH VALUES DOWN TO 15 TO 25
PERCENT. WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS, THE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
SHOULD REMAIN MARGINAL. MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO THE REGION
STARTING OVERNIGHT AS WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF THE
PLAINS/MIDWEST TROUGH. RAIN CHANCES WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHWEST
AS EARLY AS TOMORROW MORNING, LIFTED BY A WEAK SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF
THE MAIN TROUGH FURTHER TO THE NORTHWEST. MODELS DON'T HAVE MUCH
IN REGARDS TO QPF, AND AGREEMENT IS WEAK WITH LOCATION OF PRECIP,
SO KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS IN DURING THE DAY FOR NOW.
BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE WHEN THE UPPER TROUGH DIVES
SOUTHEASTWARD SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. INSTABILITY WILL
INCREASE, BUT REMAIN PRETTY WEAK, SO JUST KEPT IN SLIGHT CHANCE
MENTION OF THUNDER WHICH LINES UP WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. HAVE
MOST OF THE AREA SEEING THE BEST CHANCE AT RAIN DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING. LINGERING SHOWERS AND
EVEN SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY EAST OF I-65
DURING THE DAY MONDAY, BUT WILL BE MOVING OFF TO THE EAST WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH DURING THE DAY.
DRY CONDITIONS RETURN LATE MONDAY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. COOLER AIR
WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE TROUGH, SO TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE BELOW
AVERAGE TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. BUT, UPPER
RIDGING IS QUICK TO MOVE IN BY WEDNESDAY, AND HIGHS WILL RETURN TO
THE 60S WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. HITTING 70 IS NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS WELL. DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY, A SIMILAR SETUP TO TOMORROW WILL OCCUR AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE
WILL BE AHEAD OF THE LARGER TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST. HAVE CHANCE
POPS IN FOR THE DAY FRIDAY, BUT BETTER SETUP LOOKS TO BE WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT OR DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY, DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL SOLUTION PANS OUT. THE ECMWF
AND CANADIAN REMAIN MUCH COLDER THAN THE GFS, AND LETS JUST SAY
THEIR SOLUTIONS TOWARDS THE END OF THE RUN DON'T RESEMBLE SPRING-
LIKE WEATHER! AS MENTIONED YESTERDAY, I WOULDN'T PUT TOO MUCH
WEIGHT INTO THE MODELS FOR THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF APRIL JUST YET,
AND WILL CONTINUE TO SEE HOW NEXT WEEKEND'S SYSTEM EVOLVES.
AVIATION
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.
WEAK PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE MID-STATE
SUNDAY MORNING...AS REGIONAL HIGH BREAKS DOWN. WEAK MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED LIKELY TO RESULT IN LIGHT SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NORTH 14-18Z RANGE. THIS BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO
HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON CIGS/VSBYS. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 43 67 52 64 38 / 10 30 80 50 10
CLARKSVILLE 43 63 50 61 34 / 10 50 80 50 10
CROSSVILLE 38 66 48 60 37 / 0 20 80 60 20
COLUMBIA 43 67 51 65 39 / 10 30 80 50 10
LAWRENCEBURG 44 67 51 64 41 / 0 30 80 60 10
WAVERLY 46 66 52 64 41 / 10 30 80 50 10
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION......BARNWELL
AVIATION........07
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