648
FXUS64 KOHX 210515
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1115 PM CST THU NOV 20 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1115 PM CST THU NOV 20 2025
- PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. A COUPLE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT FRIDAY NIGHT.
- ANOTHER HIGH CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY.
- MILD TEMPERATURES LASTING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, THEN TURNING
SHARPLY COLDER BY THANKSGIVING.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1020 PM CST THU NOV 20 2025
AFTER A RAINY, GLOOMY THURSDAY, THE EVENING HOURS PROVIDED A
BREAK FROM THE WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH JUST PATCHY DRIPS AND FOG. WE
WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR POCKETS OF DENSE FOG OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY
WEST OF I-65 NEAR THE TN RIVER. ANOTHER BATCH OF WIDESPREAD RAIN
WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER WILL ARRIVE FOR FRIDAY MORNING WITH ANOTHER
MESSY COMMUTE LIKELY FOR METRO AND SURROUNDING AREAS. AFTER THAT,
THE RAINFALL PATTERN WILL TRANSITION TO ON AND OFF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
WE HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING GENERALLY "GARDEN VARIETY" THUNDERSTORMS
WITH THIS SYSTEM AND THAT IS STILL THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME.
HOWEVER, WE CANNOT COMPLETELY LET OUR GUARD DOWN. AS SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARD ALONG THE OHIO RIVER DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
OUR WAY FRIDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, DEEP LAYER WINDS WILL
INCREASE WITH 0-6 BULK SHEAR VALUES REACHING AROUND 50KT. CAPE
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE LOW WITH POOR LAPSE RATES, BUT IF THOSE
VALUES CREEP UP A LITTLE- ABOVE 500 J/KG, WE COULD SEE SOME BRIEF
STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THE AIR WILL
CERTAINLY BE ON THE MUGGY SIDE FOR NOVEMBER WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S AND DEW POINTS REACHING INTO THE LOWER
60S. SO, NOT A BIG, WIDESPREAD RISK BUT A POSSIBILITY TO KEEP IN
MIND. AN SPC UPDATE WITH A "MARGINAL RISK" WOULD NOT BE A SHOCK.
BY THE TIME THE BULK OF THE RAIN IS DONE SATURDAY MORNING, 2 DAY
TOTALS IN THE 1 TO 2 INCH RANGE WILL BE COMMON. THE REMAINDER OF
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL BE DRY AND A LITTLE COOLER, ALTHOUGH
STILL SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1020 PM CST THU NOV 20 2025
WE ARE LOOKING AT ALMOST A REPEAT SCENARIO FOR LATE MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COMES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST WITH RAIN AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS. ANOTHER 1.00" TO
1.25" OF RAIN IS EXPECTED.
AS WE GO INTO THANKSGIVING, A BIG PATTERN CHANGE WILL DEVELOP AS
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT BRINGS SHARPLY COLDER AIR. WE CAN EXPECT
COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES TURKEY DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE LATEST MODELS DON'T SHOW ANYTHING RECORD BREAKING, BUT
DEFINITELY ON THE COLD SIDE OF NORMAL WITH WEEKEND LOWS IN THE 20S
AND LOWER 30S AND HIGHS IN THE 40S TO MID 50S.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1115 PM CST THU NOV 20 2025
A VERY UNFAVORABLE TAF PERIOD AHEAD, WITH CONDITIONS OSCILLATING
BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR OR WORSE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. SHRA
CONTINUES TO BE A POSSIBILITY OVERNIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW
AFTERNOON, WITH LIGHT WINDS AROUND 5 KNOTS. MAIN CONCERNS ARE
CEILINGS BEING BELOW 010 AT MANY LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT AND THEN VSBY
CONCERNS WITH FOG AND SHRA. FOG HAS ALREADY BEGUN TO SETTLE IN AT
A FEW TAF SITES, BUT SHOULD BE ALL OVER MIDDLE TENNESSEE BY THE
MORNING. CEILINGS LOOK TO LIFT BY 0Z SATURDAY, WITH FOG IMPROVING
BY ABOUT 12-14Z TODAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 58 74 58 66 / 80 70 90 20
CLARKSVILLE 57 72 55 62 / 70 90 80 10
CROSSVILLE 55 68 57 64 / 90 60 90 40
COLUMBIA 61 74 60 69 / 60 50 80 10
COOKEVILLE 56 70 57 63 / 90 70 90 40
JAMESTOWN 54 69 56 62 / 90 70 100 40
LAWRENCEBURG 60 73 60 70 / 50 40 80 10
MURFREESBORO 59 74 60 68 / 70 50 80 20
WAVERLY 57 72 55 63 / 70 80 80 10
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION.....HOLLEY
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