254
FXUS64 KOHX 062341
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
641 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2026
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 632 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2026
- WIDESPREAD RADIATION FOG IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
TUESDAY, WITH LOW VISIBILITIES LIKELY OCCURRING IN MANY AREAS.
- TYPICAL SUMMER-LIKE HEAT AND HUMIDITY ARE FORECAST THROUGHOUT
THE WEEK AND WEEKEND. NO HEAT-RELATED HEADLINES ARE
ANTICIPATED, BUT HEAT INDICES NEAR 100 DEGREES ARE POSSIBLE MID
TO LATE WEEK.
- DAYTIME SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. AT THIS TIME, THE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS REMAINS VERY LOW,
BUT HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING CAN BE EXPECTED WITH
THE STRONGER CELLS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 632 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2026
SCATTERED CONVECTION IS STILL OCCURRING ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE,
ALTHOUGH THE OVERALL INTENSITY OF THE HEAVY-RAINERS IS DROPPING
OFF. COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE TO WANE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS,
WITH VERY LITTLE ACTIVITY EXPECTED DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
WHAT WE DO EXPECT OVERNIGHT IS RADIATION FOG, WITH LOW
VISIBILITIES ONCE AGAIN POSSIBLE IN MANY AREAS. IT IS UNCLEAR
WHETHER WE'LL NEED ANOTHER DENSE FOG ADVISORY EARLY TUESDAY, BUT
THE POSSIBILITY IS THERE. WE EXPECT VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN AIR MASS
ANY TIME SOON. SO TOMORROW'S ENVIRONMENT WILL MIRROR TODAY'S
TOPICAL ENVIRONMENT, WITH PLENTY OF INSTABILITY AND ABUNDANT
AVAILABLE MOISTURE, BUT NO LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR TO SPEAK OF, AND
ALSO POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS
TOMORROW REMAINS VERY LOW. INDEED, THE BIGGEST THREAT ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WILL BE TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING WITH
THE HEAVIER CELLS.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1145 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2026
WE HAVE QUITE THE MOISTURE PROFILE ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE TODAY.
OUR MORNING RAOB WAS VERY TROPICAL-LIKE WITH POOR LAPSE RATES BUT
MEDIUM-HIGH SATURATION THROUGH THE TROPOSPHERE. THE PW WAS 1.85"
WHICH RUNS NEAR THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. WITH
ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN PLACE, AND THE LINGERING MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH JUST TO OUR WEST, SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TODAY. GIVEN LITTLE TO NO WIND SHEAR
AND MORE NARROW CAPE PROFILES, STORM INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
ON A DECREASE TODAY. HOWEVER, AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM IS
CERTAINLY A POSSIBILITY AS WELL AS LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
TEMPERATURES WILL CLOSE TO NORMAL TODAY. FOR TOMORROW, OVERALL
CONDITIONS ARE NEARLY A "COPY AND PASTE" FROM TODAY, WITH MOST
PARAMETERS NOT CHANGING MUCH AND INFLUENCE OF THE LINGERING
DISTURBANCE ALOFT.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1145 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2026
GUIDANCE HAD PREVIOUSLY SUGGESTED A BIT OF A BREAK IN OVERALL
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, BUT POPS HAVE
INCREASED FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS. ASSESSING LATEST GUIDANCE SEEMS
TO SUGGEST THAT THE LINGERING DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL BE A LITTLE
SLOWER TO LEAVE THE REGION WHICH WILL HELP INFLUENCE DIURNAL
CONVECTION MID WEEK. PERHAPS THURSDAY WILL BE SOMEWHAT OF A
DECREASE AS WE TRANSITION TO THE SUBSIDENT SIDE OF THE SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCE.
ONCE WE GET INTO LATE WEEK THE OVERALL PATTERN SEEMS TO BE FAIRLY
ZONAL. HOWEVER, GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEPICT TRANSIENT SHORTWAVES
MOVING ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS ALONG WITH A
MEANDERING SURFACE BOUNDARY. THESE FEATURES WILL HELP INFLUENCE
DAILY RAIN/STORM CHANCES GIVEN WE'LL REMAIN IN A MOIST/UNSTABLE
AIR MASS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 617 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2026
CONVECTION IS STILL ON-GOING ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE, AND WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING. I'M NOT CONVINCED THAT ANY OF THE
TERMINALS WILL BE IMPACTED, SO WE'LL HANDLE THAT POSSIBILITY WITH
PROB30 REMARKS. OVERNIGHT, EXPECT RADIATION FOG ONCE AGAIN. IT IS
PROBABLE THAT AT LEAST KCKV, KCSV & KSRB WILL DROP TO IFR OR EVEN
LIFR DURING THE EARLY MORNING. EXPECT AFTERNOON CONVECTION ONCE
AGAIN ON TUESDAY. FOR NOW, WE'LL COVER THAT WITH PROB30 REMARKS
FOR TS/CBS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 72 88 72 89 / 40 60 20 60
CLARKSVILLE 70 87 70 88 / 30 60 20 70
CROSSVILLE 66 82 66 83 / 30 60 20 60
COLUMBIA 69 87 69 88 / 30 50 20 60
COOKEVILLE 68 83 68 85 / 50 60 20 60
JAMESTOWN 66 82 66 84 / 40 60 30 60
LAWRENCEBURG 68 86 68 87 / 20 50 20 50
MURFREESBORO 70 88 70 89 / 40 60 20 50
WAVERLY 69 86 69 88 / 30 60 10 60
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE.......ROSE
SHORT TERM...SIZEMORE
LONG TERM....SIZEMORE
AVIATION.....ROSE
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page