240
FXUS64 KOHX 022334
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
534 PM CST MON MAR 2 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 530 PM CST MON MAR 2 2026
- LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON, MAINLY NORTH OF
I-40.
- ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH
POTENTIAL FOR RECORD HIGHS MID TO LATE THIS WEEK.
- UNSETTLED WEATHER THIS WEEKEND WITH MEDIUM TO HIGH RAIN CHANCES.
THE RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER OR FLOODING IS VERY LOW.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1035 AM CST MON MAR 2 2026
A WEAK SHORTWAVE PERTURBATION IS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION, EMBEDDED
IN A WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS SYSTEM IS EVIDENT WITH OVERCAST
SKIES AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MAINLY IMPACTING AREAS ALONG AND NORTH
OF I-40 THIS MORNING. MOST RADAR RETURNS TO THE SOUTH AREN'T MAKING
IT TO THE GROUND DUE TO DRY LOW-LEVELS. LIGHT RAIN ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE GRADUALLY FADING AWAY
TOWARD SUNSET. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE DIVIDED IN A NORTH TO
SOUTH FASHION DUE TO THE SURFACE FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA. HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 50S ARE FORECAST NORTH, TO THE LOW 70S SOUTH. THIS
FRONT WILL LIFT TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TOMORROW WITH DEEP-
LAYER RIDGING STRENGTHENING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL SUPPORT
HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND WILL BE THE BEGINNING
OF A PERIOD OF VERY WARM WEATHER ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSE.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1035 AM CST MON MAR 2 2026
WARM WEATHER WILL BE THE MAIN HEADLINE FOR THIS WEEK THANKS TO
PERSISTENT RIDGING IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL COINCIDE
WITH SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS EACH DAY WITH
VARIABLE CLOUDINESS. THE MOST FAVORED STORM TRACK WILL STRETCH FROM
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TOWARD THE
GREAT LAKES DUE TO THIS RIDGE. THUS, RAIN CHANCES WILL FAVOR
NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE WEDNESDAY, WITH HIGHER
CHANCES THURSDAY, IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAKENING LINE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. FORCING WILL FADE AWAY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE
SHORTWAVE DEFLECTS TO OUR NORTH AROUND THE RIDGE.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN AN ABOVE-NORMAL POSTURE THROUGHOUT THE
LONG-TERM WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND 80S FORECAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. IT APPEARS WE WILL AT LEAST FLIRT WITH RECORD HIGHS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, IF NOT SET NEW RECORDS, WITH LATEST FORECAST
DATA. THE LATEST NBM IS BRINGING 82 DEGREES AT BNA ON THURSDAY, WITH
85 ON FRIDAY - TWO DEGREES HIGHER THAN THE RESPECTIVE RECORD HIGHS.
FRIDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY THIS WEEK OVERALL. THE RECORD COULD
BE IN JEOPARDY ON SATURDAY AS WELL, DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF A
SYSTEM/COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. IN FACT, THE
WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE THE MOST UNSETTLED WEATHER-WISE DUE TO THE RIDGE
AXIS SHIFTING SLIGHTLY EASTWARD WHICH WOULD BRING THE FAVORED ZONE
OF MOISTURE/LIFT INTO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS WITH POTENTIAL
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A FRONT. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN
MEDIUM TO HIGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AS A RESULT, BUT
HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 530 PM CST MON MAR 2 2026
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS
MIDDLE TN, BUT WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. VFR
CIGS AND VIS PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LLWS DEVELOPS AFTER
03Z THEN DISSIPATES AFTER 12Z TUESDAY. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS TAKE
OVER LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 54 76 59 80 / 10 10 10 10
CLARKSVILLE 48 76 59 79 / 20 20 10 20
CROSSVILLE 50 67 52 74 / 10 10 10 0
COLUMBIA 55 75 58 81 / 10 10 10 10
COOKEVILLE 53 70 55 76 / 20 10 10 10
JAMESTOWN 51 68 54 75 / 10 20 0 10
LAWRENCEBURG 55 75 57 80 / 10 10 10 0
MURFREESBORO 55 75 57 80 / 10 10 10 10
WAVERLY 53 75 60 79 / 10 10 10 20
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...SIZEMORE
LONG TERM....SIZEMORE
AVIATION.....CRAVENS
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