726
FXUS64 KOHX 102311
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
611 PM CDT MON AUG 10 2026
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 607 PM CDT MON AUG 10 2026
- HEAT RISK WILL CLIMB TO MAJOR LEVEL (3 OUT OF 4) THIS WEEK. A
HEAT ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE WEST
OF THE PLATEAU STARTING TUESDAY.
- LOW TO MEDIUM (<40%) CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, BEST CHANCES GENERALLY EAST OF
I-65. OVERALL RISK FOR FLOODING AND SEVERE WEATHER IS VERY LOW.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 607 PM CDT MON AUG 10 2026
STILL PRETTY WARM AND HUMID OUT THERE AT UPDATE TIME. THE BEST
PART? THERE'S ONLY ONE LITTLE SPRIG OF RAIN ON RADAR IN MIDDLE TN.
MOST DON'T EVEN HAVE CLOUDS. THIS IS STARTING TO BE A REALLY NICE
BREAK FROM THE ACTIVE WEATHER OF LAST WEEK. ENJOY THE EVENING!
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1201 PM CDT MON AUG 10 2026
AUGUST WEATHER IS REALLY, AND UNFORTUNATELY, BUILDING ACROSS THE
REGION THIS WEEK WITH HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS THANKS TO A
DEVELOPING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. HEAT INDICES IN THE 100S ARE
FORECAST FOR AREAS WEST OF THE PLATEAU TODAY AND TOMORROW WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOW TO MID 90S. HEAT INDICES UP TO 109 DEGREES ARE FORECAST
FOR AREAS SURROUNDING THE NASHVILLE METRO WESTWARD TOWARD THE
TENNESSEE RIVER STARTING TOMORROW. WITH RAIN/STORM CHANCES ONLY
<30% THROUGH TOMORROW, WE'RE NOT EXPECTING MUCH RELIEF FROM RAIN-
COOLED AIR, THOUGH THANKFULLY WE'LL BE SPARED FROM ORGANIZED
SEVERE WEATHER AND FLOODING. A HEAT ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT
STARTING 10 AM TUESDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1201 PM CDT MON AUG 10 2026
DEEP-LAYER RIDGING IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE BUILDING ACROSS THE
REGION MID TO LATE THIS WEEK. THIS WILL INCREASE PROBABILITIES FOR
IMPACTFUL HEAT INDICES AND ALSO NUDGE THE FAVORED CORRIDOR FOR
STORMS TO OUR NORTH AND EAST (OHIO VALLEY THROUGH MID APPALACHIANS).
IN FACT, LATEST NBM GUIDANCE HAS DECREASED OVERALL RAIN CHANCES
ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE THROUGH LATE WEEK, UNFORTUNATELY LIMITING
CHANCES FOR HEAT RELIEF. HEAT IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
ACROSS THE REGION, SO HEAT-RELATED HEADLINES WILL LIKELY NEEDED
EXPANDED IN BOTH AREA AND TIME.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 607 PM CDT MON AUG 10 2026
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR THIS TAF CYCLE. THE ONLY EXCEPTION MAY
BE SOME IFR TO MVFR VIS OVERNIGHT AT CSV/SRB. WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE LIGHT (LESS THAN 10 KTS) AND SOUTHWESTERLY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 75 95 76 95 / 0 20 20 30
CLARKSVILLE 75 95 76 95 / 0 0 20 20
CROSSVILLE 70 88 70 87 / 0 10 30 40
COLUMBIA 74 95 75 95 / 0 30 10 20
COOKEVILLE 72 90 72 89 / 0 10 30 50
JAMESTOWN 71 88 71 88 / 0 10 30 50
LAWRENCEBURG 73 92 73 93 / 10 30 10 30
MURFREESBORO 74 95 74 95 / 0 20 20 30
WAVERLY 74 94 75 94 / 0 10 20 10
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TUESDAY TO 9 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR
TNZ005>008-023>030-056>060-062.
UPDATE.......UNGER
SHORT TERM...SIZEMORE
LONG TERM....SIZEMORE
AVIATION.....UNGER
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page