840
FXUS64 KOHX 061714
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1214 PM CDT SAT JUN 6 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1210 PM CDT SAT JUN 6 2026
- RAIN AND STORM CHANCES RETURN ON SUNDAY AND EXTEND INTO NEXT
WEEK. LOW CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
- EXPECT HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP AS PWATS REACH
NEAR RECORD TERRITORY SUNDAY THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK.
- INCREASING TREND WITH TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY THROUGH NEXT
WEEK. HEAT INDICES REACH THE 90S EARLY WEEK AND EVEN NEAR 100 BY
MID WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1056 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2026
HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY KEEPING CONDITIONS DRY AND RELATIVELY
COMFORTABLE ACROSS MIDDLE TN TODAY. EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WITH HIGHS WARMING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S (AROUND
90 IN SOME SPOTS), ACCOMPANIED BY GRADUALLY INCREASING HUMIDITY
FROM THE INCREASED SOUTHERLY FLOW. LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE
UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S UNDER INCREASING CLOUDS.
STORM CHANCES REMAIN VERY LOW THIS AFTERNOON SUPPORTING DECENT
OUTDOOR PLANS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THIS WEEKEND. SUNDAY MARKS THE
SHIFT TO A WETTER PATTERN AS THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE AND
SURFACE BOUNDARY DEVELOPS OVER TN, INFLUENCED BY A TROUGH TO THE
WEST. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY, ESPECIALLY
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES EST OF
I-65. INSTABILITY AND GULF MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT CONVECTION, BUT
ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY SCATTERED. THE SEVERE WEATHER RISK
REMAINS LOW, BUT ANY ISOLATED STRONGER STORMS COULD STILL POSE A
THREAT FOR GUSTY WINDS, LIGHTNING, AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE A BIT COOLER IN THE MID 80S DUE TO CLOUD
ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER AND SURROUNDING PRECIPITATION, WHILE
OVERNIGHT LOWS ONLY DIP INTO THE LOW 70S.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1056 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2026
THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE INFLUENCING THE REGION MONDAY, BRINGING
ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MODELS SUGGEST ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE WITH DECENT
INSTABILITY, BUT THE SEVERE STORM RISK WILL BE LOW. THIS IS
LARGELY DUE TO THE LACKING WIND SHEAR. A FEW ISOLATED STRONG
STORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE, BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY
ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW PWATS OF +1.50
INCHES SO ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BRING
HEAVY RAINFALL.
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK, EXPECT MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN
WITH DIURNAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS POSSIBLE EACH DAY AMID
BUILDING HEAT AND MOISTURE, EVEN AS A RIDGE REBUILDS TO THE WEST
MID WEEK. ONCE AGAIN, THE SEVERE POTENTIAL REMAINS LOW FOR THIS
TIME PERIOD.
HIGH WILL TREND WARMER NEXT WEEK. EXPECT UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S BY
MID WEEK, WITH SOME 90+ DAYS (ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY ONWARD AS WE
SEE MORE RIDGE INFLUENCE). DEW POINTS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED,
LEADING TO MUGGY CONDITIONS AND CAUSING HEAT INDICES TO REACH THE
UPPER 90S (EVEN BREAKING 100 DEGREES FOR SOME). OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL HOVER IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. STAY HYDRATED, TAKE BREAKS
IN THE SHADE OR STAY INDOORS DURING PEAK HEAT.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1210 PM CDT SAT JUN 6 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HAS NOW DRIFTED OFF THE CAROLINA COAST,
ALTHOUGH AN UPPER RIDGE REMAINS LOCKED IN PLACE OVER MIDDLE
TENNESSEE. SO WE CAN EXPECT VFR WX THE REMAINDER OF TODAY AND
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL GO LIGHT/CALM BY SUNSET. TOMORROW, A SURFACE
BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TO OUR IMMEDIATE NORTH, AND WHEN
COMBINED WITH INCREASED MOISTURE ADVECTION COMING FROM THE SOUTH,
WE DO EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS TO DEVELOP BY MIDDAY, WITH A PROB30
GROUP BEING INCLUDED IN THE BNA TAF DURING THE AFTERNOON PERIOD TO
ACCOUNT FOR TS/CB PROBABILITIES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 70 86 70 85 / 0 50 60 90
CLARKSVILLE 69 87 71 86 / 0 40 60 90
CROSSVILLE 64 81 65 78 / 0 30 50 70
COLUMBIA 68 83 70 85 / 0 70 50 90
COOKEVILLE 66 83 67 81 / 0 30 60 70
JAMESTOWN 64 84 65 81 / 0 10 50 70
LAWRENCEBURG 67 80 69 82 / 0 70 50 90
MURFREESBORO 68 85 70 85 / 0 60 60 80
WAVERLY 69 84 71 85 / 0 60 60 80
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...CRAVENS
LONG TERM....CRAVENS
AVIATION.....ROSE
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