759
FXUS64 KOHX 221717
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1217 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1210 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2026
- MEDIUM TO HIGH RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE EACH DAY THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
- LOW CHANCE OF DAMAGING WINDS OR A BRIEF TORNADO THIS AFTERNOON WITH
STRONGEST STORMS.
- RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2-3 INCHES THROUGH NEXT WEEK, WITH A MEDIUM
CHANCE OF AMOUNTS GREATER THAN 4 INCHES IN SOME AREAS.
LOCALIZED FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1118 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2026
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE LIFTING INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE THIS MORNING
WITH NO LIGHTNING NOTED ON GLM AT THE MOMENT. THERE IS A WEAK
SURFACE LOW CENTERED OVER MEMPHIS WITH THE WARM FRONT THAT LIFTED
THROUGH OUR AREA LAST NIGHT NOW CLEAR TO THE NORTH. THERE'S
PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER BUT WE HAVE MANAGED TO REALIZE 500-900 J/KG
OF MLCAPE. A RELATIVELY STRONG 850 MB JET (35-45 KTS) WILL NOSE
INTO OUR EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ELONGATING
HODOGRAPHS. A FEW CELLS IN SOUTHERN/CENTRAL ALABAMA WITH ROTATION
HAVE BEEN NOTED THIS MORNING. THIS SETUP WILL SUPPORT A LOW END
DAMAGING WIND THREAT ALONG WITH SOME CELLS THAT COULD ROTATE WHICH
MEANS THERE IS A LOW TORNADO THREAT AS WELL. LAPSE RATES ARE NOT
IMPRESSIVE BY ANY MEANS WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SATURATED THROUGH
AT LEAST 500 MB. THE LATEST RAP MESOANALYSIS SHOWS PWAT VALUES IN
THE 1.7-1.8" RANGE WHICH IS NEAR DAILY MAX VALUES. STORMS THROUGH
THE REST OF THE DAY WILL LIKELY CONTAIN HEAVY DOWNPOURS WHICH
COULD CAUSE SOME PONDING AND MINOR FLOODING ISSUES. 95TH
PERCENTILE HREF GENERALLY SHOWS RAINFALL AMOUNTS LESS THAN 3"
FROM NOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WHICH SUPPORTS THE IDEA OF ONLY
MINOR FLOODING CONCERNS.
RAIN AND STORM COVERAGE WILL DECREASE AFTER 00-03Z AS THE LOW LEVEL
JET AND MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE LIFT NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA.
ADDITIONAL MEDIUM SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES WILL BE BACK FOR SATURDAY
WITH CHANCES HIGHER OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA ALONG A WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARY. SHEAR WILL BE MUCH WEAKER ON SATURDAY, BUT MLCAPE
VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WILL BE AVAILABLE OVER THE PLATEAU DURING
THE AFTERNOON WHICH COULD SUPPORT A GUSTY STORM OR TWO.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1118 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2026
MOIST SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY INTO MID NEXT WEEK
WHICH MEANS MORE RAIN AND STORM CHANCES EACH DAY. IF YOU'RE WANTING
TO TAKE THE BOAT OUT SUNDAY OR MONDAY FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND, THE
ODDS ARE YOU WILL BE DODGING SHOWERS AND STORMS. AS WE TRANSITION
INTO THE MIDWEEK, THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE NEBULOUS BUT THE
HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN WHICH MEANS MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN
MEDIUM TO HIGH SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
MILD WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S. DEW POINTS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES MAKING IT FEEL
QUITE HUMID.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1210 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2026
POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH
WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS. WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH LOW
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. WITHIN RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS,
EXPECT REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY. LOW CIGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THIS TAF CYCLE AS WELL, BOUNCING BETWEEN MVFR TO IFR THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE DETERIORATING TO IFR TO LIFR OVERNIGHT. THE BULK
OF THE RAIN WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 02Z AND 04Z,
BUT VCSH WILL LIKELY LINGER OVERNIGHT. CIGS WILL GRADUALLY
IMPROVE BY LATE MORNING WITH A RETURN TO MVFR BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 64 82 63 83 / 60 50 40 70
CLARKSVILLE 63 81 62 82 / 70 30 40 70
CROSSVILLE 61 76 59 79 / 70 90 40 80
COLUMBIA 63 82 62 82 / 70 50 40 80
COOKEVILLE 63 78 61 81 / 70 80 30 80
JAMESTOWN 60 78 59 81 / 60 80 50 80
LAWRENCEBURG 63 80 62 81 / 70 60 30 80
MURFREESBORO 64 82 62 83 / 60 60 30 80
WAVERLY 63 82 63 82 / 70 30 30 70
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...REAGAN
LONG TERM....REAGAN
AVIATION.....CLEMENTS
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