859
FXUS64 KOHX 071721
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1221 PM CDT WED OCT 7 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1220 PM CDT WED OCT 7 2026
- DRY WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY WITH COOL NIGHTS AND WARM DAYS.
- REMNANTS OF WHAT WILL BECOME HURRICANE ISAIAS WILL BRING HIGH
RAIN CHANCES AND GUSTY WINDS THIS WEEKEND. RAINFALL TOTALS OF
1-3" AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 30-40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.
- WARM, DRY WEATHER RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1116 AM CDT WED OCT 7 2026
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE REGION. THIS PATTERN
WILL KEEP MIDDLE TN DRY WITH WARM DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS. A WEAK AND
MOISTURE-STARVED COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA
TOMORROW, BUT IT WILL BRING NOTHING BUT A SURFACE WIND SHIFT FROM
SW TO NE.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1116 AM CDT WED OCT 7 2026
OUR QUIET WEATHER WILL COME TO AN END THIS WEEKEND AS TROPICAL
STORM ISAIAS WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME HURRICANE ISAIAS AND MAKE
LANDFALL SOMEWHERE ALONG THE MS/AL/FL COAST. THE STORM WILL
WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS LAND AND PROGRESSES NORTH TOWARDS MIDDLE
TN. 1-3" OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE WITH AREAS WEST OF I-65 HAVING A
HIGHER LIKELIHOOD OF SEEING THE GREATEST AMOUNTS (50-60% CHANCE OF
2"+). 30-40 MPH WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL. THE HIGHEST RAIN
CHANCES AND STRONGEST GUSTS WILL OCCUR BETWEEN SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EARLY SUNDAY WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING THROUGH THE DAY
SUNDAY. AS OF RIGHT NOW, SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO MIDDLE TN ARE NOT
EXPECTED. THE SEVERE THREAT REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME BUT WILL BE
MONITORED OVER THE COMING DAYS, AND ANY RAIN WILL BE BENEFICIAL TO
ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS.
WE'LL RETURN TO WARM, DRY WEATHER AT THE START OF NEXT WEEK WITH
HIGHS IN THE 80S AND COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT WED OCT 7 2026
VFR CONDITIONS AND QUIET WEATHER THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOUTHWEST
WINDS UP TO 10 KNOTS BECOMING LIGHT AND NORTHERLY THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 59 87 59 89 / 0 0 0 0
CLARKSVILLE 59 87 57 90 / 0 0 0 0
CROSSVILLE 54 81 54 81 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBIA 57 89 56 90 / 0 0 0 0
COOKEVILLE 57 82 56 85 / 0 0 0 0
JAMESTOWN 57 80 54 81 / 0 0 0 0
LAWRENCEBURG 56 88 56 89 / 0 0 0 0
MURFREESBORO 57 88 56 90 / 0 0 0 0
WAVERLY 59 85 59 88 / 0 0 0 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...CAHILL
LONG TERM....CAHILL
AVIATION.....MUELLER
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