134
FXUS64 KOHX 231056
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
556 AM CDT THU JUL 23 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 551 AM CDT THU JUL 23 2026
- COOLER AND DRIER AIR IS MOVING IN, BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
LINGER ACROSS SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND THE CUMBERLAND
PLATEAU THROUGH FRIDAY.
- LOOK FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY. NO SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
- HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WITH LOW CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE IN THE FORECAST NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1021 PM CDT WED JUL 22 2026
HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING IN FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST THIS EVENING,
WHILE A SURFACE BOUNDARY SITS JUST TO THE S/SE OF MIDDLE
TENNESSEE, HENCE THE LINGERING CELLS WE SAW AFFECTING SOUTHEAST
PORTIONS OF THE MID STATE. RAIN AND STORM CHANCES WILL REMAIN VERY
LOW THROUGH FRIDAY AS COOLER, DRIER AIR SETTLES IN AND DELIVERS A
MUCH-NEEDED BREAK FROM THE ACTIVE PATTERN THAT SEEMS TO HAVE
BECOME THE NORM THIS SUMMER. THE NEXT APPRECIABLE RAIN CHANCE WILL
COME OUR WAY FRIDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE
REGION. FORTUNATELY, THE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS REMAIN VERY LOW.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1021 PM CDT WED JUL 22 2026
RAIN AND STORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY BEFORE THE UPPER
TROUGH GOES ITS OWN WAY AND ALLOWS US TO DRY BACK OUT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN AFTER SATURDAY, SO WE CAN LOOK FORWARD
TO LOW (OR NO) RAIN CHANCES FROM SUNDAY AT LEAST THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. STORM TOTAL QPF VALUES FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS RANGE FROM 1/4"
TO 1/2" FOR MOST OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE, WITH THE BULK OF THAT
HAPPENING THIS WEEKEND. MEANWHILE, TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO OR
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS STARTING ON SUNDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY LIKELY TO WARM EVEN MORE. AT THIS TIME, IT
APPEARS THAT HEAT INDICES FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL GET
VERY CLOSE TO HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA, SO IT IS POSSIBLE THAT AN
ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST A PORTION OF THAT PERIOD.
STORM TOTAL QPF VALUES FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS RANGE FROM 1/4" TO 1/2"
FOR MOST OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 551 AM CDT THU JUL 23 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE DAY, EXCEPT FOR SOME
PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS THROUGH 17Z AT CSV AND SRB. WINDS WILL BE NNE
7-10KT TODAY, BECOMING LIGHT TONIGHT. LATE NIGHT FOG AND STRATUS
WILL FORM AT CSV AND SRB.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 84 66 88 70 / 0 0 0 40
CLARKSVILLE 84 62 87 69 / 0 0 0 50
CROSSVILLE 81 64 82 65 / 10 10 20 40
COLUMBIA 84 66 87 70 / 10 0 10 30
COOKEVILLE 81 64 83 66 / 10 0 10 40
JAMESTOWN 81 62 82 65 / 0 0 0 40
LAWRENCEBURG 83 66 86 70 / 20 10 20 30
MURFREESBORO 85 66 88 70 / 10 0 10 40
WAVERLY 84 64 87 69 / 0 0 0 40
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM....ROSE
AVIATION.....13
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