174
FXUS64 KOHX 120037
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
637 PM CST SUN JAN 11 2026
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 632 PM CST SUN JAN 11 2026
- GRADUALLY WARMING AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY.
- MEDIUM TO HIGH RAIN CHANCES RETURN WEDNESDAY. A CHANGEOVER TO
LIGHT SNOW IS FORECAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
POSSIBLE ALONG THE PLATEAU.
- BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FORECAST THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 632 PM CST SUN JAN 11 2026
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERING RIGHT OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THIS
EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
OVERNIGHT WITH CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES. SOME FREEZING FOG WILL
BE POSSIBLE NEAR RIVERS AND LAKES THANKS TO LOWS IN THE 20S.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1008 AM CST SUN JAN 11 2026
MUCH COLDER AIR IS IN PLACE WITH CURRENT TEMPERATURE READINGS IN THE
30S. DESPITE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE, FEELS-LIKE TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE
20S TO LOW-30S THANKS TO BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. WIND GUSTS WILL
DIMINISH TOWARDS SUNSET, AND THEN A COLD NIGHT IS IN STORE WITH LOWS
IN THE 20S AREAWIDE. ON MONDAY, SURFACE WINDS TURN SOUTHERLY, AND
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEK. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE MID-40S TO LOW-50S, AND PLENTY
OF SUNSHINE WILL MAKE FOR A NICE DAY.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1008 AM CST SUN JAN 11 2026
THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES ON TUESDAY AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO
THE MID-50S TO LOW-60S WITH SUNNY AND DRY CONDITIONS PERSISTING.
THEN ANOTHER PATTERN CHANGE ARRIVES STARTING WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH DIGS INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. AS THIS SYSTEM
APPROACHES, PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE TO 50-75% ACROSS
THE AREA. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM'S COLD FRONT, TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN WARM IN THE MID-40S TO MID-50S - AKA, TOO WARM FOR SNOW.
MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS THAT PRECIPITATION STARTS OUT AS RAIN
THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE 20S
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WHICH WOULD THEN
ALLOW FOR A CHANGEOVER TO A WINTRY MIX OR SNOW. IT'LL BE AREAS
EAST OF I-65 THAT ARE MOST FAVORED FOR THAT CHANGEOVER TO SNOW
WITH MODEL GUIDANCE GIVING A 45-75% CHANCE OF A DUSTING BY
THURSDAY MORNING. BUT RIGHT NOW, IT'S THE PLATEAU THAT WILL HAVE
TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY FOR MINOR ACCUMULATIONS WITH A 40-60%
CHANCE OF GETTING AT LEAST A HALF AN INCH - WHICH IS AN INCREASE
FROM PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS.
PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN END THURSDAY MORNING, AND THEN CALM
WEATHER CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE FAVORED THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE COLD THURSDAY POST-FRONT WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 30S, BUT
WILL WARM BACK INTO THE 40S ON FRIDAY. BUT THE PATTERN REMAINS
UNSETTLED HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AS ANOTHER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE
EASTERN CONUS. WIDE MODEL DISAGREEMENT IS STILL IN PLACE FOR THIS
SYSTEM AND WHAT IS MEANS FOR MIDDLE TN. RIGHT NOW, THIS SYSTEM LOOKS
TO BRING AT LEAST A LOW CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA THIS
WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 521 PM CST SUN JAN 11 2026
VFR WIND FORECAST FOR MIDDLE TN AIRPORTS. CALMING WINDS THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT BECOME SW TOMORROW MORNING AT 5-10 KTS
DURING THE AFTERNOON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 26 50 33 60 / 0 0 0 0
CLARKSVILLE 25 50 33 60 / 0 0 0 0
CROSSVILLE 20 45 27 54 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBIA 24 50 30 58 / 0 0 0 0
COOKEVILLE 22 45 29 54 / 0 0 0 0
JAMESTOWN 21 45 28 54 / 0 0 0 0
LAWRENCEBURG 23 49 29 57 / 0 0 0 0
MURFREESBORO 22 49 28 58 / 0 0 0 0
WAVERLY 25 48 32 58 / 0 0 0 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE.......SIZEMORE
SHORT TERM...CLEMENTS
LONG TERM....CLEMENTS
AVIATION.....SIZEMORE
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