853
FXUS64 KOHX 160523
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1123 PM CST MON DEC 15 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1116 PM CST MON DEC 15 2025
- A LITTLE WARMER EACH DAY WITH MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER BY MID-
WEEK.
- HIGH CHANCE FOR RAIN AND A FEW STORMS ON THURSDAY. SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED.
- ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED THROUGH THE CHRISTMAS
HOLIDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1011 PM CST MON DEC 15 2025
WE REMAIN WITHIN THE ARCTIC AIRMASS TONIGHT, BUT HAVE SEEN
NOTABLE INCREASES IN BOTH THE TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT THANKS TO
SOUTHERLY WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOW 20S,
MAYBE A FEW SPOTS IN THE UPPER TEENS ALONG THE PLATEAU, BUT A
RAPID WARMUP IS ON TAP FOR TUESDAY. UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER
THE AREA, RESULTING IN HIGHS TOMORROW IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S.
NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABOVE FREEZING OR JUST AROUND IT
FOR THE MAJORITY OF MIDDLE TN. ON WEDNESDAY, A VERY WEAK
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THAT MAY RESULT IN A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS, BUT RAIN CHANCES OVERALL ARE VERY LOW, LESS THAN 10%.
THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME IS THAT WE ONLY SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1011 PM CST MON DEC 15 2025
A MORE ROBUST SYSTEM WILL TAKE SHAPE BY THURSDAY AS A DEEP CUTOFF
LOW SWINGS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES, PUSHING A STRONG COLD FRONT
THROUGH MIDDLE TN. AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES, MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL
TRANSITION OUT THE SOUTHWEST, PULLING WARM, MOIST AIR UP INTO THE
AREA. AS SUCH, WE WILL FIND OURSELVES WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OF
THIS SYSTEM WITH PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE DAY. IN
TERMS OF ANY SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL, THE CHANCE STILL APPEARS
VERY LOW DUE TO LIMITED INSTABILITY AND LACK OF DRY AIR ALOFT. THE
BULK OF HIGHER INSTABILITY WILL BE DISPLACED TO OUR SOUTH AND
PWATS WITHIN THIS MOIST AIRMASS ARE FORECAST TO EXCEED 1" WHICH IS
ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. LOOKING AT
SOUNDINGS, NEARLY THE ENTIRE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN IS SATURATED.
WE'VE BEEN CHATTING INSTABILITY PROBABILITIES THE LAST FEW
PACKAGES, NAMELY SURFACE-BASED, AND THOSE NUMBERS ARE STILL LOW,
TOO. TONIGHT'S NBM IS GIVING A 50% CHANCE OF 100 J/KG OR GREATER
FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-40. FOR 200 J/KG, LESS THAN 10%.
OUR OTHER SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETER BOXES ARE CHECKED (HELICITY,
SHEAR) BECAUSE OF THE DYNAMICS OF THE SYSTEM. MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL BE MARGINAL WITH VALUES NEAR ~6.5 C/KM. BUT NONE OF
THIS WILL MATTER IF WE DON'T HAVE THE FUEL TO GET STORMS GOING. SO
FOR NOW, OUR MESSAGE REMAINS THAT SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS UNLIKELY
THURSDAY DUE TO A LACK OF INSTABILITY. STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES
THIS WEEK.
WE'LL UNDERGO A BRIEF COOLDOWN FRIDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH
HIGHS ONLY WARMING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S. TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S, SO
HERE'S YOUR EARLY HEADS UP FOR THAT. TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY
REBOUND BY SATURDAY AS WE FALL UNDER A BRIEF SPELL OF ZONAL FLOW.
ANOTHER FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY, THOUGH CONFIDENCE ON TIMING AND IMPACTS WITH THAT SYSTEM
ARE LOW AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER, THERE IS ENOUGH SIGNAL TO WARRANT
LOW TO MEDIUM (35-45%) RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE WHOLE AREA. SHALLOW
DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO RIPPLE THROUGH THE FLOW, KEEPING
LOW RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1116 PM CST MON DEC 15 2025
VFR THRESHOLDS PREVAIL THIS TAF CYCLE. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE WITH SPEEDS BETWEEN 8 TO 10 KTS. HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN
LATE IN THE PERIOD RESULTING IN OVC SKY COVERAGE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 24 51 35 55 / 0 0 0 10
CLARKSVILLE 23 48 35 53 / 0 0 0 0
CROSSVILLE 22 49 32 51 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBIA 22 51 35 56 / 0 0 0 0
COOKEVILLE 23 48 33 51 / 0 0 0 0
JAMESTOWN 23 48 33 51 / 0 0 0 0
LAWRENCEBURG 22 51 35 54 / 0 0 0 0
MURFREESBORO 22 51 35 55 / 0 0 0 0
WAVERLY 24 48 35 53 / 0 0 10 10
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...BAGGETT
LONG TERM....BAGGETT
AVIATION.....BAGGETT
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