552
FXUS64 KOHX 251129
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
629 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 622 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2026
- AREAS OF PATCHY DENSE FOG LIKELY THIS MORNING. USE CAUTION IF
TRAVELLING.
- DAILY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE. MEDIUM CHANCE FOR
RAINFALL TOTALS TO EXCEED 4 INCHES BY THE END OF THIS WEEK.
- NO ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED, BUT A FEW STRONGER
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. STRONG WIND GUSTS AND BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS ARE THE MAIN THREATS.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2026
A SURFACE BOUNDARY/TROUGH IS SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE
CURRENTLY WHICH LED TO DEVELOPMENT OF RAIN SHOWERS NEAR HERE AT
OHX THAT PRODUCED BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AND MINOR FLOODING. THIS
HAS BEEN THE THEME FOR A FEW DAYS NOW AS ANOMALOUS MOISTURE VALUES
AND LOW-MEDIUM INSTABILITY HAVE COMBINED TO SUPPORT FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINS AT TIMES. BENEFICIAL RAINFALL HAS
CERTAINLY COME IN HANDY FOR THE DROUGHT AND STREAMFLOWS HAVE
RECOVERED NICELY OVER PORTIONS OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE.
FOR TONIGHT, MOST RAIN ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE AT A MINIMUM.
CLOUDS WILL LINGER AND WINDS ARE LOOKING TO BE NEAR CALM. WITH SO
MUCH MOISTURE AT THE SURFACE, PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. LOCALLY DENSE FOG CANNOT BE RULED OUT, BUT
THERE'S NO CURRENT SIGN OF WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG AT THIS TIME DUE
TO CLOUD COVER.
WHILE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DEPART TO OUR NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT,
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS NOW BEGINNING TO MEANDER TO OUR SOUTHWEST.
THIS DISTURBANCE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST INTO MONDAY MORNING AND
SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT TROPICAL MOISTURE
INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW
STORMS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON. POOR LAPSE RATES
WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY AND EFF. BULK SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN <20 KTS.
NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED BUT BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE
POSSIBLE WHICH MAY CAUSE MINOR FLOODING. TUESDAY WILL ALMOST BE A
REPEAT OF MONDAY WITH CONTINUED INFLUENCE OF THE WEAKENING UPPER-
LEVEL LOW IN THE REGION.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2026
MIDDLE TENNESSEE WILL SEE CONTINUED RAIN CHANCES MID TO LATE WEEK
AS A TROPICAL AIRMASS REMAINS SITUATED IN THE REGION. BEST CHANCES
WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHEN INSTABILITY
INCREASES DIURNALLY. MEDIUM-RANGE GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT A COLD
FRONT MOVING INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH WOULD LEAD TO
DRIER AIR AND A DECREASE IN RAIN/CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 622 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2026
POOR FLYING CONDITIONS THIS MORNING AS LIFR STRATUS AND MVFR FOG
ARE IMPACTING TERMINALS. CIGS WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE MORNING,
VARYING BETWEEN MVFR TO IFR. AN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR THRESHOLDS IS
LIKELY BY THIS AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL ALSO RETURN
THIS AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY INCREASES, THOUGH EXACT LOCATIONS
OF STORM DEVELOPMENT REMAINS UNCERTAIN. THERE HAS BEEN MORE MODEL
CONSISTENCY WITH A WIDESPREAD ROUND OF -SHRA MOVING IN LATE
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. LOW CIGS WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THIS
WAVE. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND EASTERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 80 65 80 66 / 60 80 80 60
CLARKSVILLE 80 65 79 66 / 50 80 90 70
CROSSVILLE 75 62 76 62 / 70 70 90 40
COLUMBIA 80 64 80 65 / 80 80 80 60
COOKEVILLE 78 64 78 64 / 50 80 80 40
JAMESTOWN 77 61 78 62 / 80 80 90 40
LAWRENCEBURG 78 64 78 65 / 70 80 90 60
MURFREESBORO 81 64 81 66 / 70 80 70 50
WAVERLY 80 65 80 66 / 50 80 80 70
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR TNZ007>011-
026>034-059>066-075-077>080-095.
SHORT TERM...SIZEMORE
LONG TERM....SIZEMORE
AVIATION.....BAGGETT
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