300
FXUS64 KOHX 091822
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
122 PM CDT TUE JUN 9 2026
..NEW KEY MESSAGES
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 119 PM CDT TUE JUN 9 2026
- THERE IS A LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, MAINLY NORTH OF I-40. STRONG WINDS ARE
THE PRIMARY THREAT.
- LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING FROM HEAVY RAIN WILL REMAIN A
POSSIBILITY THROUGH TONIGHT.
- HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS BUILD AS HEAT INDICES REACH THE 100S
WEST OF THE PLATEAU WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1113 AM CDT TUE JUN 9 2026
MIDDLE TN REMAINS IN A MOISTURE-RICH ENVIRONMENT, THOUGH PWATS
HAVE ACTUALLY DROPPED A TOUCH THIS MORNING, DOWN TO 1.90". STILL
WELL ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE CLIMATOLOGICALLY, BUT IT'S LOWER
THAN PREVIOUS DAYS. FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY, OUR EYES WILL BE
JUST TO OUR NORTH ALONG THE TN/KY BORDER AS ANOTHER MCV SPINS
THROUGH THIS EVENING. EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS MCV WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR VERY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS. BULK SHEAR WILL
INCREASE OUT AHEAD OF THIS, LENDING TO STRONG WIND THREAT. SHEAR
VALUES OVERALL ARE FORECAST TO BE ON THE LOWER SIDE, BETWEEN 20-25
KTS, BUT WITH TONS OF INSTABILITY IN PLACE FROM DAYTIME HEATING,
IT WON'T TAKE MUCH FOR A STORM TO GET WINDY THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. TIMING FOR POTENTIAL SEVERE STORMS WILL BE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE 12AM.
WITH REGARDS TO THE FLOODING THREAT, THE FLOOD
WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED SINCE WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NO LONGER A
CONCERN. AS STORMS MOVE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY, SO REMAIN
AWARE OF THAT IF YOU GET CAUGHT UNDER A STORM.
RAIN AND STORM CHANCES WILL BECOMES MUCH MORE ISOLATED WEDNESDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS TO OUR WEST. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING
WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S, AND COUPLED
WITH CONTINUED HIGH HUMIDITY, THIS WILL RESULT IN HEAT INDEX
VALUES IN THE UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1113 AM CDT TUE JUN 9 2026
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THURSDAY, WHICH WILL BE
OUR HOTTEST DAY THIS WEEK WITH AIR TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 90S
AND HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE LOW 100S. BY FRIDAY, A FRONT WILL
PUSH THROUGH THE AREA, BRINGING A HIGH CHANCE FOR RAIN AND STORMS
AREAWIDE. THE SEVERE THREAT WITH THIS FRONT CURRENTLY LOOK VERY
LOW WITH ONLY MEAGER BULK SHEAR VALUES. STILL, THERE WILL BE
PLENTY OF INSTABILITY FROM DAYTIME HEATING FOR THE FRONT TO
INTERACT WITH, SO WE COULD SEE A FEW STRONG STORMS. MOVING INTO
THE WEEKEND, UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL WITH HIGH
HUMIDITY REMAINING IN PLACE. THERE IS SOME MODEL UNCERTAINTY
BEYOND SATURDAY, BUT THE PATTERN OVERALL FAVORS CONTINUED LOW TO
MEDIUM RAIN CHANCES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. LONG RANGE MODELS
ARE HINTING AT A VERY DEEP LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE GREAT LAKES
NEXT WEEK THAT WOULD HELP KEEP OUR TEMPERATURES COOLER, IN THE LOW
TO MID 80S.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT TUE JUN 9 2026
THE HRRR IS CONSISTENT IN BRINGING A CLUSTER OF STORMS
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE DURING THE AFTERNOON, SO WE'VE
ADDED PROB30 GROUPS TO THE TAFS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY,
WITH THE IMPACT TIMES STAYING CLOSE TO THE HRRR TIMING. AFTER
THAT, TAFS ARE VFR, EXCEPT FOR SOME MORNING MVFR CEILINGS AT KCSV.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 73 93 75 94 / 30 10 0 0
CLARKSVILLE 74 91 75 92 / 40 0 0 0
CROSSVILLE 68 84 69 86 / 40 40 0 10
COLUMBIA 72 92 73 93 / 10 0 0 0
COOKEVILLE 70 87 71 89 / 50 30 0 10
JAMESTOWN 67 86 69 89 / 60 40 0 10
LAWRENCEBURG 71 89 72 90 / 10 0 0 0
MURFREESBORO 72 92 73 93 / 30 10 0 0
WAVERLY 73 92 75 93 / 30 0 0 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...BAGGETT
LONG TERM....BAGGETT
AVIATION.....ROSE
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page