825
FXUS64 KOHX 180653
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
153 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2026
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 153 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2026
- THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY EVENING, A LOW CHANCE (MAINLY A LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5)
FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL BEING
THE PRIMARY THREATS.
- LOOK FOR DRY CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, BUT
HIGH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL RETURN SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.
- SEASONABLY WARM AND HUMID WEATHER WILL PERSIST WITH ON AND OFF
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 153 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2026
THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE REGARDING THE FORECAST FOR TODAY,
ALTHOUGH IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE ONCOMING EVENT WILL END SOONER
THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT, WITH THE ACTIVITY WINDING DOWN BY THIS
EVENING MOST PLACES. WE EXPECT SHOWERS AND STORMS TO BEGIN
DEVELOPING BY LATE MORNING AS WE FIND OURSELVES CAUGHT BETWEEN A
SURFACE BOUNDARY ENTERING MIDDLE TENNESSEE FROM THE NORTH AND A
STORM SYSTEM TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH MS AND AL AND INTO THE
APPALACHIANS BY THIS EVENING. IT DOES APPEAR THAT INSTABILITY
WILL INCREASE CONSIDERABLY AS THE SURFACE HEATS UP. THE 05Z HRRR
FORECAST SOUNDING FOR BNA VALID AT 18Z, FOR EXAMPLE, GIVES US A
SBCAPE OF NEARLY 2,800 J/KG AND A LIFTED INDEX OF -7. MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE SOMEWHAT ANEMIC AT 5.7 C/KM, ALTHOUGH THERE DOES
APPEAR TO BE AN INFLUX OF DRY AIR INTRUSION ABOVE 700 MB. LOW-
LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS NEGLIGIBLE. HOWEVER, PRECIPITABLE WATER LOOKS
TO INCREASE TO ~1.9", WHICH WOULD PUT US ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE
CLIMATOLOGICALLY. THUS, THERE IS DEFINITELY THE POTENTIAL FOR
VERY HIGH RAINFALL RATES WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. SO THE EXPECTED
IMPACTS ARE THE SAME AS BEFORE. AGAIN, THE ONLY REAL CHANGE IS AN
EARLIER ENDING TO THIS EVENT. MOST OF FRIDAY AND ALSO MOST OF
SATURDAY LOOK TO BE DRY AND NOMINALLY COOLER.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1045 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2026
WEDNESDAY'S GUSTY SOUTH WINDS BROUGHT VERY WARM, MUGGY CONDITIONS
INTO THE MID STATE, AND THE MOIST ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THURSDAY. AN ACTIVE FRONTAL SYSTEM DROPPING FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY AND REMNANTS FROM TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR WILL COME
TOGETHER TO BRING A HIGH CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS,
ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WE REMAIN UNDER A LOW-END
RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS ALONG WITH A LOW-END RISK
FOR LOCAL FLOODING FROM HEAVY RAINFALL.
MODEL FORECASTS OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS HAVE BEEN TRENDING
FASTER WITH THESE SYSTEMS, AND AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE THE
FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO VERY
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING GIVING US DRY CONDITIONS FOR DAYTIME FRIDAY
AND A VERY NICE, COMFORTABLE FRIDAY EVENING.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1045 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2026
SATURDAY SHOULD BE A PRETTY GOOD DAY. IT WILL BE WARM BUT HUMIDITY
LEVELS SHOULD STAY TOLERABLE. RETURN FLOW WILL BE DEVELOPING
QUICKLY, SO A FEW LATE DAY SHOWERS OR STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT
OVER THE SOUTHWEST.
AS WE GO THROUGH SUNDAY AND MONDAY, A FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE AND
FRONT WILL BRING A HIGH CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS.
THERE ARE A LOT OF MODEL DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AT THIS POINT, BUT
IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING TO SEE AT LEAST A LOW-END SEVERE
THREAT SUNDAY AND/OR MONDAY WITH THIS SYSTEM. AFTER MONDAY, ON AND
OFF SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE REST OF NEXT
WEEK AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.
OTHERWISE, NEXT WEEK SHOULD BRING TYPICAL JUNE WARMTH AND HUMIDITY
WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 60S AND HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S TO NEAR
90.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1233 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2026
WE WON'T HAVE TO CONCERN OURSELVES WITH EARLY-MORNING RADIATION
FOG WITH WINDS STAYING UP OVERNIGHT. THURSDAY IS GOING TO BE A BIT
MESSY WITH A SURFACE BOUNDARY COMING THROUGH MIDDLE TENNESSEE.
LOOK FOR SHOWERS TO BEGIN DEVELOPING BY LATE MORNING, WITH
THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES INCREASING DURING THE AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH BY 00Z ONCE THE SURFACE BOUNDARY COMES THROUGH,
WITH SHOWERS ALSO TAPERING OFF DURING THE EVENING. LOOK FOR MVFR
CEILINGS TO DEVELOP BY 06Z AND RADIATION FOG ALSO STARTING TO
FORM IN SOME AREAS BY THEN.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 88 68 85 64 / 80 50 0 0
CLARKSVILLE 87 64 84 62 / 80 30 0 0
CROSSVILLE 82 65 80 58 / 70 60 10 0
COLUMBIA 87 68 85 62 / 70 50 10 0
COOKEVILLE 84 66 81 60 / 80 70 0 0
JAMESTOWN 84 64 80 57 / 90 80 10 0
LAWRENCEBURG 84 68 84 62 / 80 40 10 0
MURFREESBORO 87 69 86 62 / 70 50 10 0
WAVERLY 86 66 84 63 / 80 40 0 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE.......ROSE
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION.....ROSE
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