837
FXUS64 KOHX 141108
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
608 AM CDT MON SEP 14 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 607 AM CDT MON SEP 14 2026
- HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT TUESDAY FOR MOST OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE
WEST OF THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU. HEAT INDICES UP TO 109F ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON.
- RAIN CHANCES THIS WEEK ARE NEGLIGIBLE. THE NEXT RAIN CHANCES
AREN'T EXPECTED UNTIL THE WEEKEND.
- WE SHOULD START TO SEE A GRADUAL COOL-DOWN LATE NEXT WEEKEND AND
EARLY THE FOLLOWING WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1029 PM CDT SUN SEP 13 2026
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM NEW ENGLAND
SOUTHWESTWARD INTO WEST TN AND FURTHER. ALONG THIS BOUNDARY, WEST TN
HAS BEEN DEALING WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SINCE THIS AFTERNOON.
THERE ISN'T ANY ORGANIZATION WITH THEM, BUT THE BOUNDARY IS PROVING
TO BE JUST ENOUGH LIFT TO SPARK CONVECTION. A COUPLE OF THEM ARE
SLOWLY DRIFTING TOWARDS HOUSTON AND HUMPHREYS COUNTIES ALONG THE TN
RIVER. A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT HOUR,
BUT ON THE WHOLE, THESE STORMS WON'T BE OF ANY GREAT CONSEQUENCE.
SHY OF SOME PATCHY OVERNIGHT FOG, THIS WILL BE THE EXTENT OF ANY
ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY.
THE BIG STORY OF THIS FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE THE HEAT. UPPER LEVEL
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXERT ITSELF OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
STARTING TOMORROW AND STICK AROUND THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.
THIS WILL GREATLY REDUCE, IF NOT ELIMINATE, RAIN CHANCES AND KEEP
AFTERNOON HIGHS RUNNING 10-12 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS. A HEAT
ADVISORY IS ALREADY POSTED FOR TUESDAY FOR A GOOD PORTION OF
MIDDLE TN AS HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE IN THE 105-109 RANGE DURING
THE AFTERNOON. THIS MAY BE THE CASE ON WEDNESDAY, AS WELL, SO AN
EXTENSION OF THE ADVISORY MAY BECOME NECESSARY WITH FUTURE
FORECAST PACKAGES.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1029 PM CDT SUN SEP 13 2026
MID-RANGE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN PERSISTENT DEVELOPING AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
EAST OF FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AND THERE IS SOME
QUESTION AS TO WHETHER THIS WILL CREATE ANY RAIN CHANCES FOR US AS
IT RETROGRADES TO THE WEST. THE RIDGE WANTS TO HOLD ON AND BE THE
MAIN WEATHER DRIVER IN OUR NECK OF THE WOODS, BUT I CAN'T RULE
OUT A STRAY STORM ON THURSDAY.
AS WE GET INTO THE WEEKEND, MODELS ARE VERY INCONSISTENT IN
SOLUTION. THE GFS WANTS TO CREATE A VERY WET PATTERN BY THE END OF
THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK. IN SHARP CONTRAST, THE
EURO IS MUCH MORE DRY AND HOLDS ONTO SOME RIDGING INFLUENCES AS WE
NEAR THE "START" OF FALL. WHILE THERE WERE SOME INDICATIONS LAST
NIGHT THAT WE MIGHT START COOLING OFF, THE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES MAY HOLD ON EVEN LONGER.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 607 AM CDT MON SEP 14 2026
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WE WILL SEE QUIET WEATHER
WITH SOME PASSING HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES. WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY UP
TO 7 KNOTS BECOMING SOUTHERLY LESS THAN 5 KNOTS IN THE EVENING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 93 70 99 76 / 0 0 0 0
CLARKSVILLE 91 69 99 75 / 0 0 0 0
CROSSVILLE 86 64 90 67 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBIA 96 70 99 73 / 0 0 0 0
COOKEVILLE 88 68 93 71 / 0 0 0 0
JAMESTOWN 84 64 90 69 / 0 0 0 0
LAWRENCEBURG 94 70 97 72 / 0 0 0 0
MURFREESBORO 95 70 100 74 / 0 0 0 0
WAVERLY 93 72 98 76 / 0 0 0 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR TNZ005>010-
023>032-056>064-075-093>095.
SHORT TERM...UNGER
LONG TERM....UNGER
AVIATION.....MUELLER
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