174
FXUS64 KOHX 121126
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
526 AM CST FRI DEC 12 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 522 AM CST FRI DEC 12 2025
- MUCH COLDER AIR ARRIVES THIS WEEKEND WITH THE COLDEST AIR OF THE
SEASON SO FAR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
- WIDESPREAD LOWS IN THE TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS FORECAST SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1011 PM CST THU DEC 11 2025
WITH A SHORTWAVE CLIPPING OUR AREA TO THE NORTH, THIS HAS ALLOWED
FOR LIGHT SNOW ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP MAINLY IN KY BUT ALSO ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLATEAU. FOR OUR FAR NORTHERN PLATEAU (FENTRESS,
PICKETT, CLAY, AND OVERTON), TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED JUST BELOW
FREEZING WITH RECENT REPORTS INDICATING A DUSTING OF SNOW. CAMS
INDICATE THAT THESE SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END IN THIS AREA
AROUND MIDNIGHT. ANY SNOW (LESS THAN A HALF INCH) THAT DOES
ACCUMULATE WILL MELT RAPIDLY THANKS TO WARMER TEMPERATURES FRIDAY.
BE SURE TO ENJOY FRIDAY AS BIG CHANGES ARE ON THE WAY. WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE MUCH OF THE DAY, TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY
NICE WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S ALONG WITH SUNSHINE. BUT THEN A COLD
FRONT DIPS SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT, BRINGING THE FIRST BLAST OF COLDER
AIR.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1011 PM CST THU DEC 11 2025
WHILE SATURDAY WILL BE COLDER COMPARED TO FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
40S TO LOW 50S, IT'LL BE THE SECOND BLAST OF COLD AIR THAT NIGHT
THAT WILL BRING THE BONE-CHILLING COLD. ARCTIC AIR WILL INVADE
MIDDLE TN WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM CLIPPING US TO THE NORTH. TEMPERATURES
WILL PLUMMET SATURDAY NIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD LOWS IN THE TEENS. THERE
WON'T BE MUCH WARMING COME SUNDAY AS "HIGHS" STAY IN THE 20S. THEN
IT'LL BE EVEN COLDER COME SUNDAY NIGHT AS TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE
LOW TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS. AND IF THAT'S NOT COLD ENOUGH FOR YOU,
BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SECOND FRONT WILL RESULT
IN APPARENT TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS COLD IS DANGEROUS SO BE SURE TO TAKE
PRECAUTIONS LIKE BUNDLING UP IF YOU ARE OUTSIDE AND BRINGING YOUR
PETS INDOORS.
THERE IS STILL A QUESTION REGARDING PRECIPITATION SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH THE SECOND SYSTEM, AND MODELS HAVE LARGELY BACKED OFF ON THAT
POTENTIAL FOR MIDDLE TN. NBM'S PRECIPITATION CHANCES HAVE DROPPED TO
AROUND 15-25% MAINLY FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF I-65. PRECIPITATION
TYPE WOULD MAINLY BE SNOW, BUT THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR A WINTRY
MIX BEFORE TEMPERATURES ARE ABLE TO FALL COMPLETELY BELOW FREEZING.
REGARDLESS, LITTLE IF ANY IMPACTS ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED AS THE
PROBABILITY OF AT LEAST A DUSTING OF SNOW IS LOW AT 10-15% ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLATEAU.
TEMPERATURES WILL FINALLY BREAK ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK EARLY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AFTER ABOUT 36 CONSECUTIVE HOURS OF STAYING BELOW 32.
TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY REBOUND THEREAFTER SO THAT BY WEDNESDAY,
WE'RE BACK IN THE MID-50S. AS FAR AS THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN, THAT
WILL BE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 522 AM CST FRI DEC 12 2025
VFR CONDITIONS TODAY WITH FEW TO SCT MID-LEVEL CLOUDS. MVFR CIGS
BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH AFTER 06Z, THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
HOW FAR SOUTH THIS CLOUD DECK BUILDS BUT AS OF NOW THERE IS ABOUT
A 50% CHANCE IT MAKES IT TO NASHVILLE. SOUTHERLY WINDS UP TO 8
KNOTS WILL GRADUALLY TURN NORTH DURING THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 56 32 50 18 / 10 0 0 10
CLARKSVILLE 52 30 46 14 / 10 0 0 10
CROSSVILLE 51 30 52 17 / 0 0 0 20
COLUMBIA 58 30 53 17 / 0 0 0 10
COOKEVILLE 52 30 50 17 / 10 0 0 20
JAMESTOWN 50 29 49 16 / 10 0 0 20
LAWRENCEBURG 58 30 55 18 / 0 0 0 10
MURFREESBORO 57 30 52 17 / 0 0 0 10
WAVERLY 54 30 48 14 / 0 0 0 10
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...CLEMENTS
LONG TERM....CLEMENTS
AVIATION.....MUELLER
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