039
FXUS64 KOHX 051733
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1133 AM CST THU MAR 5 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1129 AM CST THU MAR 5 2026
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
- HIGH CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY. SOME
STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE MAINLY POSING A THREAT FOR
DAMAGING WINDS.
- CONTINUED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO MID NEXT
WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1100 AM CST THU MAR 5 2026
A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE AND WEAK SURFACE LOW ARE CURRENTLY MOVING
FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. THIS IS
ALLOWING FOR A TRAILING BAND OF HIGHER MOISTURE QUALITY TO
APPROACH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THIS MORNING WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 WEST OF I-65 ALONG WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND
A FEW RAIN SHOWERS. THERE'S MORE SUN EAST OF I-65 SO FAR, BUT
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE SOMEWHAT THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS. REGARDLESS, SUNSHINE AND A STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY
BREEZE IS PROMOTING INCREASING WARMTH WITH RECORD HIGHS IN
JEOPARDY THIS AFTERNOON. BNA'S RECORD HIGH IS 80 DEGREES SET BACK
IN 1910 AND IT'S ALREADY 77 DEGREES AS OF THIS WRITING.
THE SHORTWAVE WILL ROTATE AROUND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED TO
OUR SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND HEAD TOWARD THE NORTHEAST, SO HEIGHT
RISES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MIDDLE TN INTO TOMORROW MORNING WITH A
CONTINUED PRESENCE OF SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW. ANOTHER VERY
WARM DAY WITH MODEST HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED AS A RESULT. WE COULD
SEE ANOTHER RUN AT RECORD HIGHS TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND ENOUGH
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED DIURNAL SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
THUNDERSTORM. BNA'S RECORD HIGH IS 83 DEGREES ALSO SET BACK IN
1910.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1100 AM CST THU MAR 5 2026
A MORE AMPLIFIED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS PROJECTED TO ADVANCE
EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS ON SATURDAY, NUDGING THE RIDGE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS WILL BRING
A CORRIDOR OF HIGHER MOISTURE AND LOW- TO MID-LEVEL FLOW INTO THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY SATURDAY MORNING ALONG WITH A COLD FRONT. AN
ELONGATED AREA OF ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO OUR AREA FROM THE WEST, THOUGH LIKELY IN A
WEAKENING TREND SATURDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, WITH PRE-FRONTAL
ADVECTION AND HEATING, DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE
FRONT/CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR REDEVELOPMENT OR
RESTRENGTHENING OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, MID MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON IN PARTICULAR. SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE
GIVEN 500-750 MLCAPE AND ~30 KTS EFF. BULK SHEAR. HIGHER
INSTABILITY VALUES ARE BEING LIMITED BY POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES. OVERALL, AN ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND THREAT IS THE MAIN
CONCERN ALONG WHAT APPEARS TO BE A BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION
MOVING ACROSS THE MID STATE.
PRIMARY UPPER-LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL DEPART TO THE NORTHEAST INTO
SUNDAY WITH A STALLING FRONT SOMEWHERE TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST
WHERE RAIN CHANCES HAVE TRENDED AS A RESULT. A LOT OF THIS SHOULD
BE THE RESULT OF OVERRUNNING MOISTURE. IT APPEARS THE REMNANT
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ON MONDAY WHEN A WEAK SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN
WESTERLY FLOW MOVES INTO THE REGION. NBM RAIN CHANCES REMAIN
40-60% THAT DAY WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE. MEDIUM RAIN/STORM CHANCES
CONTINUE INTO MID NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH A CONTINUED PERIOD OF
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1129 AM CST THU MAR 5 2026
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE (15-30%) FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 02Z MAINLY FOR KCKV. BKN TO SCT CLOUDS 035
TO 060 RISING TO AROUND 100 AFTER 23Z. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS
GUSTING UP TO 24 KNOTS THROUGH 23Z, THEN FALLING TO LESS THAN 10
KNOTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 80 61 82 65 / 30 10 20 20
CLARKSVILLE 77 60 82 65 / 70 20 20 50
CROSSVILLE 74 56 76 61 / 10 0 20 10
COLUMBIA 78 59 81 64 / 20 0 20 10
COOKEVILLE 75 59 79 63 / 10 10 20 10
JAMESTOWN 74 57 78 62 / 10 10 10 10
LAWRENCEBURG 78 59 81 63 / 10 0 20 10
MURFREESBORO 78 60 83 65 / 10 0 20 10
WAVERLY 77 61 81 63 / 40 10 20 40
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...SIZEMORE
LONG TERM....SIZEMORE
AVIATION.....MUELLER
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