430
FXUS64 KOHX 131601
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1101 AM CDT THU AUG 13 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1101 AM CDT THU AUG 13 2026
- DANGEROUS HEAT EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH TRIPLE DIGIT
HEAT INDICES WEST OF THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU.
- LOWER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TODAY, BUT ANY STRONGER STORMS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN.
- DRIER AND HOTTER CONDITIONS FAVORED FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND
FOLLOWED BY SOME MINOR RELIEF EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1101 AM CDT THU AUG 13 2026
CLOUDS ARE INVADING THE AREA FROM THE NORTH THIS MORNING, WITH HEAT
INDICES ALREADY IN THE 90S AND SOME IN THE LOW 100S THOUGH, WE'LL
TAKE ANY KIND OF BREAK WE CAN GET. AN UPPER RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES THAT DOES NOT PLAN ON
RELENTING ANY TIME SOON. THIS DRIVES UP NOT ONLY OUR TEMPERATURES,
BUT KEEPS THE ATMOSPHERE MOIST WITH FLOW FROM THE GULF INTO MIDDLE
TENNESSEE. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY GET HOTTER INTO THE WEEKEND, AND
SO WILL HEAT INDICES. TODAY, EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID 90S WITH HEAT
INDICES RANGING FROM 105 - 110. DON'T EXPECT MUCH RELIEF FROM IT AS
OUR CHANCES FOR RAIN ARE LOW (20-30%). THAT BEING SAID, IF A STORM
DOES MANAGE TO BREAK THROUGH DESPITE THE RIDGE, IT WOULD BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL.
TO END THE WORK WEEK, IT'S THE SAME STORY BUT WITH EVEN SMALLER
CHANCES FOR RAIN (<20%). OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 70S WON'T PROVIDE
MUCH RELIEF FROM THE HEAT, AND HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 90S (WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU, THEY'LL GET
INTO THE LOW 90S). HEAT INDICES WILL REACH 105 - 110 ONCE AGAIN.
WITH THE HIGH OVERNIGHT LOWS, AND MINIMAL RELIEF EXPECTED, MUCH OF
THE AREA CREEPS INTO EXTREME HEAT RISK STARTING FRIDAY AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. IF YOU PLAN ON BEING OUTSIDE,
REMEMBER TO PRACTICE HEAT SAFETY, AND KNOW THE SIGNS OF HEAT
ILLNESS. TAKE BREAKS BEFORE YOU THINK YOU NEED THEM, AS SOMETIMES
YOU CAN REALIZE YOU NEED TO COOL DOWN TOO LATE.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1101 AM CDT THU AUG 13 2026
THE RIDGE CONTINUES ITS HOLD ON THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES INTO
THE WEEKEND, WHERE TEMPERATURES SOMEHOW MANAGE TO GET EVEN HOTTER.
HIGHS ON THE WEEKEND HAVE A REAL CHANCE OF REACHING 100 DEGREES IN
SOME AREAS ON THE HIGHLAND RIM. WITH THE HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR
THE AREA, AND THE EXTREME HEAT RISK, PRECAUTIONS NEED TO BE MADE FOR
OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES. MAKE SURE YOU ARE STAYING HYDRATED AND TAKING
FREQUENT BREAKS IN THE SHADE OR A/C IF YOU STILL PLAN TO BE OUTSIDE
THIS WEEKEND.
ONCE WE START A NEW WORK WEEK, A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN CANADA WILL
BEGIN TO EXERT PRESSURE ON OUR RIDGE, AND WE ARE SQUEEZED RIGHT IN
THE MIDDLE. AS THE LOW DIPS FURTHER SOUTH, SOME PASSING SHORTWAVES
WILL BRING RAIN CHANCES STARTING MONDAY NIGHT. WHILE CHANCES ARE LOW
(20 - 30%), A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT OUR WINDS TO BE FROM THE
NORTH AND LOWER HIGHS ON TUESDAY TO THE LOW 90S. UNFORTUNATELY, IT
IS AUGUST, SO WE WILL BOUNCE RIGHT BACK TO THE MID 90S INTO THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 610 AM CDT THU AUG 13 2026
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
TODAY. OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION, EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS, DIURNAL CU, AND BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS. WINDS
WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY TONIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 97 77 97 77 / 30 0 10 0
CLARKSVILLE 96 76 96 76 / 10 0 0 0
CROSSVILLE 88 72 89 73 / 30 10 10 0
COLUMBIA 98 76 97 76 / 20 0 10 0
COOKEVILLE 90 73 91 74 / 40 10 10 0
JAMESTOWN 88 72 90 72 / 50 10 10 10
LAWRENCEBURG 95 75 95 75 / 10 10 20 0
MURFREESBORO 97 75 98 76 / 20 0 10 0
WAVERLY 96 76 97 75 / 10 0 0 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR TNZ005>010-023>033-
056>065-075-077-078-093>095.
SHORT TERM...HOLLEY
LONG TERM....HOLLEY
AVIATION.....CAHILL
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