659
FXUS64 KOHX 160345
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1045 PM CDT TUE SEP 15 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1045 PM CDT TUE SEP 15 2026
- VERY HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WITH TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT INDICES WILL
CONTINUE. A HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH SATURDAY
FOR MOST OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE.
- SLIGHT COOLDOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL STAY
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.
- LOW RAIN CHANCES MAINLY FOR THE PLATEAU THIS WEEKEND. LOW RAIN CHANCES
AREA-WIDE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1045 PM CDT TUE SEP 15 2026
DANGEROUS HEAT IS THE MAIN CONCERN THIS WEEK, ESPECIALLY DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A POWERFUL 6000+ METER 500 MB RIDGE OVER THE
REGION WILL KEEP CONDITIONS HOT AND HUMID WITH NO MEANINGFUL RAIN
POTENTIAL.
BNA REACHED A RECORD-SETTING 100 DEGREES TUESDAY AND THERE IS NO
REASON TO DOUBT IT WILL HAPPEN AGAIN WEDNESDAY AS THE RIDGE
INTENSIFIES DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE IN
JEOPARDY EACH DAY THIS WEEK.
THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DECREASE SLIGHTLY AS THE CENTER OF THE
RIDGE RETREATS TO OUR SOUTHWEST LATE WEEK, BUT HEAT RISK LEVELS
WILL REMAIN IN THE MAJOR TO EXTREME CATEGORY (LEVEL 3 TO 4 OUT OF
4).
A STRAY SHOWER CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT, BUT CERTAINLY
NO MEANINGFUL RAINFALL WILL OCCUR THIS WEEK. LOOK FOR WORSENING
DROUGHT CONDITIONS AND VERY CRUNCHY LAWNS.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1045 PM CDT TUE SEP 15 2026
AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS SLIGHTLY, DIURNAL CONVECTION CHANCES WILL
INCREASE THIS WEEKEND. THIS MEANS RAIN CHANCES MOSTLY LESS THAN 30
PERCENT, AND MOSTLY FOR THE PLATEAU. MOSTLY LOW RAIN CHANCES WILL
DEVELOP AREA-WIDE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A FRONT OOZES SOUTHWARD
TOWARD OUR AREA. UNFORTUNATELY, IT IS NOT LOOKING LIKE MUCH RAIN.
ALSO, EVEN IF THE HEAT DOES BACK OFF, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
STAY ON THE HOT SIDE OF NORMAL.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 623 PM CDT TUE SEP 15 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. TONIGHT, EXPECT SKC
AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS. TOMORROW, WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SW
AT 5-10 KT IN THE MORNING AND BACK TO THE SE BY THE EVENING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 76 100 75 99 / 0 10 0 0
CLARKSVILLE 75 99 74 100 / 0 0 0 0
CROSSVILLE 67 89 67 91 / 0 10 0 10
COLUMBIA 73 99 72 100 / 0 0 0 0
COOKEVILLE 71 92 70 94 / 0 0 0 0
JAMESTOWN 69 89 68 91 / 0 10 0 10
LAWRENCEBURG 72 97 71 98 / 0 10 0 0
MURFREESBORO 74 98 73 100 / 0 0 0 0
WAVERLY 76 99 75 99 / 0 0 0 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR TNZ005>010-023>033-
056>065-075-077-078-093>095.
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION.....CAHILL
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