268
FXUS64 KOHX 090523
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1223 AM CDT WED SEP 9 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1223 AM CDT WED SEP 9 2026
- A HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR NORTHWEST MIDDLE TN
WEDNESDAY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM FOR HEAT INDICIES NEAR 105
DEGREES.
- ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
90S THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- A WETTER PATTERN KICKS OFF THURSDAY THROUGH AT LEAST THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1004 PM CDT TUE SEP 8 2026
ANOTHER WARM, QUIET NIGHT IS UNDERWAY ACROSS MIDDLE TN. THIS
EVENING'S 00Z UPPER AIR FLIGHT REVEALED A 597 DAM HEIGHT READING
AT 500 MB FOR KOHX. FOR CONTEXT, THIS IS NEARING THE 99TH
PERCENTILE OF CLIMATOLOGY FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER. THIS POTENT
MIDLEVEL RIDGE WILL TRANSLATE INTO YET ANOTHER FALL SCORCHER ON
WEDNESDAY, WARRANTING ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE NORTHWEST
PORTIONS OF OUR CWA NEAR THE TN RIVER ON WEDNESDAY. THIS ALSO
COINCIDES WITH THE MOST WIDESPREAD AREA OF MAJOR HEATRISK.
WHILE THE MIDLEVEL RIDGE FLATTENS OUT A BIT TOWARD THURSDAY,
THINGS STILL STAY PRETTY TOASTY AT THE SURFACE. WITH A SURFACE
HIGH DISPLACED JUST TO OUR EAST, WARM, MOIST GULF COAST AIR WILL
BE ADVECTED IN ALONG SOUTHERLY FLOW THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES STAY WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID 90S BEFORE OUR NEXT
CHANCE OF RAIN MOVES IN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1004 PM CDT TUE SEP 8 2026
WHAT BARELY QUALIFIES AS A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH MIDDLE TN
OVERNIGHT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING, BRINGING A BROAD SWATH OF
SHOWERS AND THE OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORM. THE MAIN AREAS OF HIGHER
POPS (>60%) WILL BE CONFINED NORTH OF I-40 SINCE THIS FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO PROMPTLY STALL OUT FRIDAY MORNING AND SLOWLY LIFT
BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS PATTERN WILL
KEEP POPS ABOVE 50% EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH THE WEEKEND, ALONG WITH
GROSSLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S. UNFORTUNATELY, NO
CLEAR RELIEF IS IN SIGHT. LREF MEAN 500 MB HEIGHTS PLACE ANOTHER
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED MIDLEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AGAIN
NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1223 AM CDT WED SEP 9 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE
AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS OVERNIGHT BEFORE INCREASING TO 5-10 KTS AFTER
15Z OUT OF THE SSW/SW. GUSTS BETWEEN 15-20 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
BEFORE 0Z, WHEN WINDS WILL LESSEN TO LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. CEILINGS
WILL BE VFR TO SKC.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 94 74 94 71 / 10 0 40 60
CLARKSVILLE 96 74 93 70 / 10 30 60 70
CROSSVILLE 86 65 87 64 / 0 0 10 30
COLUMBIA 95 71 96 70 / 10 0 20 30
COOKEVILLE 89 69 90 68 / 0 0 30 50
JAMESTOWN 87 69 87 67 / 0 0 30 50
LAWRENCEBURG 92 70 94 69 / 0 0 10 20
MURFREESBORO 95 71 96 70 / 0 0 30 40
WAVERLY 94 75 93 71 / 10 10 40 60
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR TNZ005>007-023>027.
SHORT TERM...DIRKES
LONG TERM....DIRKES
AVIATION.....HOLLEY
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