973
FXUS64 KOHX 131117
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
617 AM CDT TUE OCT 13 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 615 AM CDT TUE OCT 13 2026
- WARM, DRY WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WELL
ABOVE-NORMAL. RECORD HIGHS POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY.
- LOW RAIN/STORM CHANCES WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT, PRIMARILY
FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-40.
- A COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE ON FRIDAY BRINGING MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES INTO THIS WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1035 PM CDT MON OCT 12 2026
CLEAR SKIES AND LOWS IN THE 50S AND LOW 60S TONIGHT ACROSS MIDDLE
TENNESSEE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FOR THE TIME
BEING, RESULTING IN CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. UNFORTUNATELY, THIS
ALSO MEANS WE WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE RUNS AT TEMPERATURE RECORDS
THROUGH MID-WEEK. THIS IS BECAUSE AS THE RIDGING BUILDS IN,
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, USHERING IN
MORE WARM AIR INTO THE AREA. WE CRUSHED A RECORD TODAY IN NASHVILLE,
AND MATCHED ONE IN CROSSVILLE, SO WHAT'S A FEW MORE, RIGHT?
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1035 PM CDT MON OCT 12 2026
ONCE WE GET INTO MID-WEEK, WE START SEEING THE RETURN OF (LOW) RAIN
CHANCES. A FRONT STRETCHING ALL THE WAY UP TO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
IN MAINE WILL START TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY,
WHICH WILL INCREASE OUR RAIN CHANCES NORTH OF I-40. THESE AREN'T
DROUGHT BUSTING RAIN CHANCES BY ANY MEANS, BUT ENOUGH FOR SOME AREAS
TO SEE SOME WETTING RAIN. WHAT'S MORE EYE-CATCHING IS THE COLD FRONT
THAT LAGS BEHIND THIS MOISTURE AND IS EXPECTED TO SWING THROUGH AT
THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS COLD FRONT IS LOOKING LIKE A REAL TASTE OF
FALL, DROPPING OUR 850MB TEMPERATURES BY 15 DEGREES CELSIUS. AT THE
SURFACE, THAT TRANSLATES TO HIGHS IN THE 60S/70S AND LOWS IN THE 30S
AND 40S FOR THE WEEKEND. SUNDAY MORNING, WE COULD SEE OUR FIRST
FROST OF THE SEASON ON THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU. WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP
WATCHING AND HOPE THAT THIS TIME, FALL IS HERE TO STAY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 615 AM CDT TUE OCT 13 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST THIS TAF CYCLE. WINDS WILL SHIFT OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST AFTER 14Z WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS BETWEEN 5-9 KTS.
SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 90 67 92 69 / 0 0 20 20
CLARKSVILLE 92 69 91 69 / 0 0 60 40
CROSSVILLE 82 59 84 63 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBIA 91 65 93 66 / 0 0 10 0
COOKEVILLE 84 63 86 66 / 0 0 0 10
JAMESTOWN 83 61 86 65 / 0 0 0 10
LAWRENCEBURG 88 63 91 65 / 0 0 10 0
MURFREESBORO 90 64 92 67 / 0 0 10 0
WAVERLY 89 69 89 68 / 0 0 50 20
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...HOLLEY
LONG TERM....HOLLEY
AVIATION.....BAGGETT
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