115
FXUS64 KOHX 152320
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
620 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2026
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 615 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2026
- SUMMER-LIKE TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH HIGHS REACHING THE LOW-90S WEST OF THE PLATEAU.
- LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM NORTH OF I-40 ON
SATURDAY.
- MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS MID NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 615 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2026
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL TAPER OFF OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS,
AND THEN ANOTHER CALM NIGHT IS AHEAD. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE WARMER
COMPARED TO THE PAST COUPLE NIGHTS WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING ONLY
INTO THE 50S AND 60S. WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE ON TAP TOMORROW AS
OUR WARMING TREND CONTINUES. LOOK FOR HIGHS MAKING THEIR WAY UP
INTO THE MID AND UPPER-80S. THERE DOES REMAIN A LOW CHANCE FOR A
SHOWER OR STORM NEAR THE TN/KY BORDER SATURDAY, BUT LATEST CAM
GUIDANCE KEEPS THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY TO THE NORTH. IF ANYTHING
DOES DEVELOP, NO IMPACTFUL WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1140 AM CDT FRI MAY 15 2026
FLOW ALOFT HAS BECOME ZONAL TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF TO
OUR EAST. WE'VE TRANSITIONED TO SOUTHERLY WINDS AS A RESULT WHICH
SHOULD HELP TRIGGER A WARM-UP (THAT WILL TECHNICALLY PERSIST INTO
THE WEEKEND) AS WARM SECTOR CONDITIONS BUILD TO OUR NORTHWEST. IN
FACT, THAT AREA WILL CONTAIN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND A LITTLE BIT OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
COULD APPROACH NORTHWEST MIDDLE TENNESSEE TOMORROW ALONG AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. OTHERWISE, CONTINUED WARMING IS EXPECTED
TOMORROW AS RIDGING TRIES TO BUILD MORE INFLUENCE IN THE REGION
FROM THE SOUTHEAST.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1140 AM CDT FRI MAY 15 2026
DEEP-LAYER RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK
WHICH COINCIDES WITH SUMMER-LIKE TEMPERATURES ACROSS MIDDLE
TENNESSEE WITH CONTINUED DRYNESS. UNFORTUNATELY THESE TEMPERATURES
WILL ZAP SOIL MOISTURE EVEN FURTHER ACROSS ONGOING REGIONAL
DROUGHT. THANKFULLY THERE'S SOME GOOD NEWS IN THE LONG-TERM
FORECAST PERIOD WITH UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING TO OUR NORTHWEST
SLOWLY MOVING EAST MID-WEEK. THIS WOULD HELP TO BRING HIGHER
MOISTURE CONTENT INTO THE REGION NEAR A SURFACE FRONT, BOTH OF
WHICH WOULD FOSTER DIURNAL RAIN CHANCES WHICH APPEAR ARE MEDIUM
TO HIGH TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH LATEST FORECAST
DATA.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 543 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ONCE AGAIN THIS TAF CYCLE. WINDS INCREASE
AFTER 12Z SATURDAY WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 15-20 KTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 64 88 64 92 / 10 10 10 0
CLARKSVILLE 67 88 65 91 / 10 20 10 0
CROSSVILLE 55 83 60 86 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBIA 62 87 62 90 / 0 0 0 0
COOKEVILLE 59 84 62 88 / 0 0 0 0
JAMESTOWN 56 86 59 89 / 0 10 0 0
LAWRENCEBURG 61 84 62 88 / 0 0 0 0
MURFREESBORO 62 88 63 91 / 0 10 0 0
WAVERLY 67 88 65 90 / 0 10 10 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE.......CLEMENTS
SHORT TERM...SIZEMORE
LONG TERM....SIZEMORE
AVIATION.....CRAVENS
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