025
FXUS64 KOHX 301728
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1228 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1224 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2026
- WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK.
- MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY.
- THE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS OR FLOODING IS VERY LOW AT LEAST
THROUGH DAY 8.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1044 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2026
WITH SOUTHERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW AND A WEAK WAVE IN THE ZONAL
FLOW ACROSS THE OHIO/TN VALLEYS, THIS HAS MADE FOR LOTS OF CLOUDS
OUT THERE THIS MORNING. HOWEVER, AS WE GET INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS,
I EXPECT MORE SUNSHINE CULMINATING IN WHAT WILL BE A FANTASTIC
SPRING DAY. TOMORROW, THERE WILL PROBABLY BE LESS CLOUDS, BUT THE
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ALLOWING FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER
CONDITIONS. IF YOU HAVE OUTDOOR PLANS, THE BEST PART IS WE REMAIN
DRY THROUGH TOMORROW. IF YOU'RE WORRIED ABOUT THE DEVELOPING DROUGHT
CONDITIONS, THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS FOR YOU.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1044 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2026
OUR WEATHER PATTERN STARTS TO CHANGE ON WEDNESDAY WHEN WE TRANSITION
OUT OF THE ZONAL FLOW AND INTO A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS
MEANS RIDGING TO OUR EAST AND A DEVELOPING WEATHER SYSTEM TO OUR
WEST. THIS WILL OPEN THE DOOR FOR SEVERAL DAYS OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS. STARTING WEDNESDAY, PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY WILL REVOLVE
AROUND DIURNAL CHANCES. THIS MEANS A MEDIUM SHOT AT AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ON WEDNESDAY ARE
UNIMPRESSIVE, SO ONLY GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. THURSDAY
WILL BRING A MUCH BETTER CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS AS
THAT WEATHER SYSTEM I MENTIONED EARLIER MOVES INTO MIDDLE TN. HERE'S
THE ODD PART: FOR IT BEING APRIL, I AM VERY UNIMPRESSED WITH THIS
SYSTEM. WE DO GET SOME CAPE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FOR THE
AFTERNOON, BUT IT'S ONLY A COUPLE HUNDRED. LAPSE RATES ARE GARBAGE,
AROUND 6 DEG C, BUT WITH 25 KTS OF SHEAR, AGAIN, GENERAL THUNDER IS
PROBABLY THE BEST WE DO WITH THIS ONE. RAIN CHANCES LINGER INTO
FRIDAY, ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-65, BUT OUR SECOND BIG WEATHER SYSTEM
OF THE FORECAST PACKAGE LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT. THIS IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS OFF, SO THERE'S DETAILS THAT ARE
GOING TO CHANGE THROUGHOUT THE WEEK, BUT AS OF RIGHT NOW, I AM
WHOLLY UNIMPRESSED WITH THIS SYSTEM, TOO, AS SEVERE WEATHER
PARAMETERS ARE VERY SIMILAR TO THURSDAY. OF NOTE, PW VALUES IN
BOTH INSTANCES ARE IN THE 90TH PERCENTILE. THIS SHOULD SPELL SOME
EFFICIENT RAINFALL, BUT QPF VALUES ARE RUNNING 1 TO 3 INCHES
THROUGH THE WEDNESDAY-SUNDAY TIME FRAME. AT BEST, THIS WILL HELP
WITH THE DEVELOPING DROUGHT CONDITIONS, BUT NO FLOODING IS
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK WILL TOP OUT IN THE 80S EACH DAY. OUR WARMEST
DAY SHOULD BE THURSDAY. THE CURRENT RECORD HIGH AT BNA FOR APRIL 2
IS 87 SET IN 2012. THE PROBABILITY OF US REACHING A RECORD VALUE IS
20-30% THURSDAY, SO WE'RE PROBABLY LOOKING AT MID 80S. WITH THE RAIN
CHANCES INTO THE WEEKEND, TEMPS WILL RELAX A LITTLE, BUT STILL BE
AROUND 80 WHICH IS 10+ DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2026
PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS CONTINUE TO IMPACT TERMINALS, BUT CONDITIONS
GENERALLY REMAIN VFR. CIGS BETWEEN 3-5 KFT WILL LINGER THROUGH
THE EVENING WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS SHIFTING MORE SOUTHERLY AFTER
21Z. SUSTAINED SPEEDS WILL BE BETWEEN 10-12 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO
30 KTS AT TIMES. GUSTS RELAX THIS EVENING, BUT WINDS WILL REMAIN
NEAR 10 KTS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 63 83 64 84 / 0 10 0 50
CLARKSVILLE 63 83 64 84 / 0 0 0 50
CROSSVILLE 58 77 59 78 / 0 10 10 60
COLUMBIA 61 83 63 83 / 0 10 0 40
COOKEVILLE 60 78 61 79 / 0 10 10 60
JAMESTOWN 58 78 61 79 / 0 10 10 60
LAWRENCEBURG 61 81 63 82 / 0 10 0 40
MURFREESBORO 62 83 64 84 / 0 10 0 50
WAVERLY 64 83 64 84 / 0 0 0 40
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...UNGER
LONG TERM....UNGER
AVIATION.....BAGGETT
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page