071
FXUS64 KOHX 261634
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1034 AM CST FRI DEC 26 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1030 AM CST FRI DEC 26 2025
- THERE ARE LOW CHANCES FOR LIGHT SHOWERS TODAY, MAINLY EAST OF
I-65.
- LOOK FOR WELL ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH SUNDAY WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S.
- A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH LATE SUNDAY, BRINGING
WIDESPREAD RAIN, GUSTY WINDS, AND A SUBSTANTIAL TEMPERATURE DROP
STARTING MONDAY.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1030 AM CST FRI DEC 26 2025
THE TEMPERATURES REMAIN MILD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY, BUT THE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IS ALSO STUCK LEADING TO THE LOW CLOUDS WE'VE BEEN
SEEN YESTERDAY AND TODAY. WE HAVE SEEN SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG
THE PLATEAU THIS MORNING, BUT THE RADAR IS QUIET AT THE MOMENT.
THERE IS A LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCE OF ADDITIONAL LIGHT SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG THE NORTHERN PLATEAU. OTHERWISE, EXPECT CLOUDY AND
BREEZY CONDITIONS. THE WINDS WILL DIE DOWN AFTER SUNSET WITH MILD
LOWS IN THE 50S. SATURDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH LOW
CLOUDS AND ABOVE AVERAGE HIGHS. THE SHOWER CHANCES WILL BE LOWER
ON SATURDAY RELATIVE TO TODAY.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1030 AM CST FRI DEC 26 2025
IF YOU PREFER TO TAKE YOUR CHRISTMAS LIGHTS DOWN WHILE YOU CAN FEEL
YOU HANDS, THEN SUNDAY IS YOUR CHANCE BECAUSE A PATTERN SHIFT IS
COMING. TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. WE'LL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE RECORD AT
NASHVILLE. THE CURRENT RECORD FOR DEC 28 IS 75 SET BACK IN 1874. IT
WILL BE BREEZY AGAIN AS WELL WITH SOUTH WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 MPH.
IT LOOKS LIKE ANY SHOWERS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER DARK SUNDAY
NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES. THE INSTABILITY WITH THE SYSTEM
LOOKS MINIMUM SO I DON'T EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF THUNDER. STILL,
THE FRONT WILL BE STRONGLY FORCED WITH A 40-50 KTS LLJ WHICH COULD
LEAD TO A BAND OF HEAVY SHOWERS THAT MIGHT MIX DOWN SOME GUSTY
WINDS. SPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED THIS THREAT WITH A MARGINAL RISK.
THE FRONT WILL CLEAR THE AREA MONDAY MORNING. WE'VE BEEN KEEPING AN
EYE ON HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE AS THE COLD AIR MOVES IN.
RIGHT NOW, THE ANSWER LOOKS LIKE NOT MUCH. THERE MIGHT BE A LOW
CHANCE OF A LIGHT SNOW SHOWER MAINLY ALONG THE NORTHERN PLATEAU
PRIOR TO 18Z MONDAY, BUT I'M NOT SEEING ANYTHING IN THE WAY OF
ACCUMULATION OR IMPACTS. THE MAIN STORY WILL BE THE MUCH COLDER AIR
AS HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES STAYING IN THE 30S IN ADDITION TO A STIFF NORTHWEST
BREEZE. AFTER ANOTHER DAY IN THE 30S ON TUESDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE AHEAD OF THE NYE CELEBRATIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO
THE 40S DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. BY THE TIME WE RING IN 2026,
TEMPERATURES WILL BE DROPPING THROUGH THE 30S IN INTO THE 20S. RIGHT
NOW IT LOOKS LIKE A CLIPPER SYSTEM MAY MOVE THROUGH NEW YEAR DAY
KNOCKING TEMPERATURES DOWN AGAIN.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 507 AM CST FRI DEC 26 2025
CIG FORECASTS HAVE BEEN AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE CHALLENGING WITH
VARIABLE CONDITIONS FROM LOW VFR TO MVFR ACROSS THE AREA. THE TAFS
WILL LEAN TOWARD MVFR TODAY WILL SSW WINDS GUSTING AROUND 18KT.
CIGS MAY GENERALLY IMPROVE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT WITH
LIGHTER WINDS AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE, STRATUS AND AREAS
OF FOG WILL FORM TONIGHT, MAINLY AFTER 27/06Z. FROM THAT POINT,
IFR/LIFR WILL PREVAIL.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 72 58 72 62 / 20 10 10 10
CLARKSVILLE 72 55 71 62 / 20 0 10 10
CROSSVILLE 65 55 69 55 / 30 10 0 10
COLUMBIA 70 58 74 62 / 10 10 10 10
COOKEVILLE 66 57 69 58 / 40 20 10 10
JAMESTOWN 65 55 69 55 / 40 20 0 10
LAWRENCEBURG 70 59 73 61 / 10 10 0 10
MURFREESBORO 70 58 74 62 / 20 10 10 10
WAVERLY 69 56 71 62 / 10 0 10 10
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...REAGAN
LONG TERM....REAGAN
AVIATION.....13
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