365
FXUS64 KOHX 262334
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
634 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 629 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2026
- VERY WARM THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH RECORD HIGHS POSSIBLE.
- MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FRIDAY, MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH
OF I-40. MOST LOCATIONS CAN EXPECT NO MORE THAN 0.2" OF RAIN.
- FAIR WEATHER THIS WEEKEND WITH ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES NEXT
WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH THE LOWER 30S ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NORTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU SATURDAY
MORNING.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2026
BREEZY AND VERY WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS MIDDLE TN. TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 80S
ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA WITH RECORD HIGHS POSSIBLE AT NASHVILLE AND
CROSSVILLE. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND 10 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON
FRIDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT ABRUPTLY FROM THE NORTH, INCREASING TO
12-15 MPH WITH POST-FRONTAL GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH. LOW CLOUDS WILL
ALSO INCREASE WITH LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY ALONG AND BEHIND THE
FRONT, PERHAPS LINGERING INTO THE EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE
CUMBERLAND PLATEAU. THERE DOESN'T LOOK TO BE MUCH INSTABILITY IN
PLAY, LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MIDDLE TN.
SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
70S.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2026
MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL ARRIVE BY SUNRISE SATURDAY. SOME
LOCATIONS, ESPECIALLY THOSE ROUGHLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM
CLARKSVILLE TO CROSSVILLE, WILL BE FLIRTING WITH A LIGHT FREEZE.
WINDS ARE LIKELY TO BE TOO STRONG TO RESULT IN MUCH FROST
ELSEWHERE. SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST ACROSS
THE CWA ON SATURDAY, WARMING BACK INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S
BY SUNDAY. THE DRY AIR MASS WILL RESULT IN AFTERNOON RELATIVE
HUMIDITY DIPPING TO AROUND 25 PERCENT IN SOME AREAS BOTH SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY AFTERNOONS. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT FROM THE NORTHEAST
ON SATURDAY BUT WILL VEER SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE TO 10-15 MPH
SUNDAY. THIS WILL CULMINATE IN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS,
EXACERBATED BY THE D0-D1 DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A PLAYER NEXT WEEK WITH
500 MB HEIGHTS BUILDING SLIGHTLY INTO MONDAY AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS
EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS. THIS RIDGE LOOKS TO ANCHOR OFF THE
FL COAST BY MIDWEEK, ALLOWING SOUTHERLY FLOW TO INCREASE ACROSS
MIDDLE TN UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE IMPACT TO SENSIBLE
WEATHER WILL MANIFEST AS ANOTHER WARMING TREND WITH 80S LIKELY
NEARLY AREA WIDE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, MAKING A RUN AT RECORD
HIGHS ONCE AGAIN.
THE NEXT POTENTIALLY IMPACTFUL SYSTEM LOOKS TO ARRIVE LATE NEXT
WEEK. MODEL CONSENSUS IS LACKING WITHIN THE ENSEMBLE SUITES
REGARDING BOTH THE SPEED AND AMPLITUDE OF THIS WAVE. FOR NOW, THE
MESSAGE IS FOR INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND OR
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNEDAY-FRIDAY. MORE DETAILS TO FOLLOW.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 629 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2026
WE WILL SEE QUIET WEATHER AND VFR CONDITIONS INTO THE OVERNIGHT. A
FRONT WILL START TO APPROACH THE AREA TOMORROW MORNING WITH LIGHT
SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE NORTHWEST AFTER 17Z. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
TO WORK SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL BE
LOWERING DURING THE MORNING AND WE WILL SEE MVFR CIGS DEVELOP
AFTER 17Z AS THE SHOWERS MOVE IN, IFR CIGS OVER THE PLATEAU AFTER
20Z.
BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO UNDER 12 KNOTS
THIS EVENING. LLWS DEVELOPS AFTER 03Z, 26040KT. WINDS SHIFT NORTH
TOMORROW MORNING AND BECOME BREEZY WITH GUSTS UP TO 24 KNOTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 61 72 36 60 / 0 80 10 0
CLARKSVILLE 57 68 33 59 / 10 70 0 0
CROSSVILLE 60 71 31 56 / 0 70 20 0
COLUMBIA 61 77 35 60 / 0 70 10 0
COOKEVILLE 60 71 33 57 / 0 80 20 0
JAMESTOWN 60 70 30 55 / 0 90 20 0
LAWRENCEBURG 61 77 35 61 / 0 60 10 0
MURFREESBORO 61 77 35 61 / 0 80 10 0
WAVERLY 58 72 35 60 / 0 80 10 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM....MJ
AVIATION.....MUELLER
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