876
FXUS64 KOHX 252328
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
628 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2026
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 622 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2026
- MEDIUM SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. CURRENTLY NO SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED, BUT WATCH
FOR GUSTY WINDS.
- TEMPERATURES FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL STAY CLOSE
TO SEASONAL NORMS, THEN A LITTLE WARMER TO START OFF NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 622 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2026
PICTURE PERFECT EVENING UNFOLDING AS WE ENJOY ONE LAST NIGHT OF
LOWER HUMIDITY BEFORE A PATTERN SHIFT. A STATIONARY BOUNDARY
CONTINUES TO DRIFT FURTHER EAST TOWARDS MIDDLE TN, AND AS SUCH,
CLOUDS WILL START MOVING IN LATE TONIGHT AS ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE
INCREASES. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE WARMER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS, IN
THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1129 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2026
THIS MORNING'S 12Z LAUNCHES CONFIRM A SURFACE HIGH SITUATED OVER
THE OH RIVER VALLEY, LEADING TO COOLER, DRIER AIR BEING FILTERED
INTO MIDDLE TN VIA NORTHEASTERLY WINDS. AS A RESULT, ONE MORE DAY
OF PLEASANT WEATHER IS ON TAP TODAY BEFORE WE ARE REMINDED THAT
IT IS STILL AUGUST. AS A SURFACE LOW AND ATTENDANT STATIONARY
FRONT MEANDER ABOUT THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY TOMORROW/WEDNESDAY,
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE ON THE RISE. PRECIP ONSET
WITH THIS SYSTEM HAS TRENDED A LITTLE LATER, NOW LOOKING LIKE THE
MAIN SHOT OF RAIN WILL NOT START UP UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT
WEDNESDAY.
IT'S WORTH NOTING THAT THE CAMS ALL HAVE A VERY DIFFERENT GRASP
ON THE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND TIMING FOR THE 24 HOUR PERIOD
BETWEEN 10AM WEDNESDAY AND 10AM THURSDAY...THERE DOESN'T LOOK TO
BE A WASHOUT AT ANY POINT, BUT MANY OF THESE "WAVES" OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE FEATURES
SIMULATED INCONSISTENTLY FROM MODEL TO MODEL. TO SUM IT UP, THIS
IS A PRETTY LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
CURRENTLY EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY IF THE TREND CONTINUES TO PLACE
THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION OVER MIDDLE TN OVERNIGHT AT THE
DIURNAL INSTABILITY MINIMUM. HOWEVER, GUSTY WINDS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT IF ANY THUNDERSTORMS ARE ABLE TO TAP INTO THE ENVIRONMENT AT
AN OPPORTUNE TIME.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1129 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2026
AFTER THE FRONT FINALLY CLEARS THE REGION ON THURSDAY NIGHT,
THINGS RETURN TO SEASONABLE NORMALS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
NONDESCRIPT SURFACE PATTERNS AND ZONAL FLOW ALOFT PUT TEMPERATURES
RIGHT AROUND NORMAL (90 DEGREES) WITH HEAT INDICES JUST BARELY
APPROACHING 100. HOWEVER, THE EXTENDED FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK DOES
LOOK TO HEAT UP SOME MORE. WARM FRONTS LIFTING OVER THE AREA IN
CONJUNCTION WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SPELL OUT ANOTHER HOT PERIOD
FOR MIDDLE TN STARTING ON MONDAY. TOO EARLY TO MAKE ANY CALLS
RIGHT NOW BUT WE MAY BE FLIRTING WITH HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA AGAIN
AS EARLY AS TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 619 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. CLOUD
COVERAGE WILL START INCREASING FROM THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT,
EVENTUALLY LEADING TO PERIODS OF SCT TO OVC COVERAGE BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 66 93 71 91 / 0 0 40 60
CLARKSVILLE 65 92 69 89 / 0 0 40 50
CROSSVILLE 62 87 66 84 / 0 0 20 70
COLUMBIA 67 94 70 91 / 0 20 40 60
COOKEVILLE 64 89 68 86 / 0 0 20 60
JAMESTOWN 62 87 68 85 / 0 0 10 60
LAWRENCEBURG 67 93 70 89 / 0 20 40 60
MURFREESBORO 66 95 70 91 / 0 10 30 60
WAVERLY 67 92 69 89 / 0 10 50 50
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE.......BAGGETT
SHORT TERM...DIRKES
LONG TERM....DIRKES
AVIATION.....BAGGETT
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