860
FXUS64 KOHX 180326
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1026 PM CDT SUN MAY 17 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1021 PM CDT SUN MAY 17 2026
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER-80S TO LOW-90S CONTINUE
THROUGH TUESDAY.
- THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE SEVERE THREAT IS VERY LOW.
- ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES LATE WEEK MAY PUSH RAINFALL TOTALS OVER
2 INCHES BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1021 PM CDT SUN MAY 17 2026
SOUTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS AGAIN MONDAY, ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER DAY OF
ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH AS TEMPERATURES MAKE THEIR WAY INTO THE
UPPER-80S TO LOW-90S AGAIN. THERE IS A DISTURBANCE TO THE
NORTHWEST OF MIDDLE TN THAT WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR AFTERNOON
CONVECTION. MOST OF THIS SHOULD STAY TO OUR NORTHWEST, BUT CAMS
THIS EVENING ARE PICKING UP ON AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO THAT MAY
CLIP THE STEWART COUNTY AREA LATE INTO MONDAY EVENING. REGARDLESS,
MOST OF MIDDLE TN WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH MONDAY.
THE PATTERN IS STILL LOOKING FAVORABLE FOR BENEFICIAL RAIN STARTING
ON TUESDAY. A TROUGHING PATTERN DEVELOPS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS
WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES IMPACTING THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK, AND MOISTURE VALUES WILL BE ON THE RISE WITH PWATS ON
TUESDAY INCREASING TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES. AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST, RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF
IT TO AROUND 60-80%, PARTICULARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE NIGHT.
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TUESDAY LOOKS LOW WITH BETTER WIND
SHEAR DISPLACED TO THE NORTH, BUT WON'T RULE OUT A THUNDERSTORM
PRODUCING STRONG WINDS.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1021 PM CDT SUN MAY 17 2026
HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES OF THE WEEK ARE ON WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT
SLOWLY PUSHES SOUTH. SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WEDNESDAY STILL LOOKS TO
BE LOW AS THE HIGHEST WIND SHEAR STILL IS TO THE NORTH, DISPLACED
FROM THE HIGHER INSTABILITY TO THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE FRONT. BUT
AGAIN, WON'T RULE OUT THE LOW CHANCE FOR STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS
DUE TO THE FRONT. THEN UNSETTLED WEATHER IS FAVORED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS THE FRONT
STALLS SOMEWHERE OVER THE REGION AND SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO
ADVECT MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN HIGH
AT 1.5" OR HIGHER, HELPING TO KEEP MEDIUM TO HIGH RAIN CHANCES IN
THE FORECAST. PROBABILITIES FOR BENEFICIAL RAIN CONTINUE TO TREND
UP WITH LATEST ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE GIVING A 50-70% CHANCE FOR AT
LEAST 2 INCHES OF RAIN BY THE END OF THE WEEK WHICH WOULD
CERTAINLY BE GOOD NEWS FOR THE DROUGHT.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 532 PM CDT SUN MAY 17 2026
VFR CONDITIONS FOR THIS TAF CYCLE. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RELAX TO
10 KTS OR LESS TONIGHT THEN BECOME BREEZY AGAIN TOMORROW AROUND
15-16Z WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 KTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 68 92 71 91 / 0 0 0 30
CLARKSVILLE 68 90 72 89 / 0 10 10 60
CROSSVILLE 63 85 65 85 / 0 10 0 20
COLUMBIA 66 90 69 90 / 0 0 0 30
COOKEVILLE 66 88 68 87 / 0 10 0 30
JAMESTOWN 65 89 65 88 / 0 10 0 20
LAWRENCEBURG 66 88 69 88 / 0 0 0 20
MURFREESBORO 67 91 70 90 / 0 0 0 20
WAVERLY 69 90 72 90 / 0 10 10 50
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...CLEMENTS
LONG TERM....CLEMENTS
AVIATION.....UNGER
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