038
FXUS64 KOHX 251728
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1128 AM CST WED FEB 25 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1128 AM CST WED FEB 25 2026
- RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOPING LATER THIS AFTERNOON BECOMING MORE
WIDESPREAD TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT.
- MILD TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1110 AM CST WED FEB 25 2026
A LONG WAVE TROUGH IS SET UP OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE US WITH
A STRONG SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO. THIS IS BRINGING SOME
BREEZY WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
LOOSEN UP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND WE WILL SEE THOSE GUSTS
SUBSIDE. OUR MAIN FOCUS WILL THEN TURN TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WHERE A SHORT WAVE WILL DIG AND BRING US A HIGH CHANCE FOR RAIN
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. WE ARE ALREADY SEEING LIGHT SHOWERS
ON RADAR MAINLY TO OUR NORTH ALONG A STALLED OUT FRONT. SOUNDING
SHOW A LOT OF DRY AIR TOWARDS THE SURFACE AND THAT IS KEEPING MUCH
OF THIS RAIN FROM HITTING THE GROUND. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
INCREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND WE WILL SEE SOUNDING PROFILE
MOISTEN. LIGHT SHOWERS LOOK TO DEVELOP AFTER 3 PM AND WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS WE HEAD INTO THE EVENING. HIGH CHANCES FOR
RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS THE SHORT WAVE AND
ASSOCIATED BOUNDARY MOVE OVER MIDDLE TN. RAIN WILL DIMINISH FROM
WEST TO EAST AFTER 7 AM AND ALL OF THE AREA WILL SEE DRY
CONDITIONS BY THE AFTERNOON. SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL BUILD
IN AFTER MIDNIGHT AND WE COULD SEE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FOR
AREAS TO THE WEST OF I-24, NO SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED. RAIN TOTALS
WILL RANGE FROM 0.20-0.40" IN THE NORTHWEST TO 0.50-1.50" ALONG
I-40 AND 0.25-0.75" FOR SOUTHERN AREAS. HIGHS BOTH TODAY AND
TOMORROW WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1110 AM CST WED FEB 25 2026
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL TURN MORE ZONAL AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH DRY CONDITIONS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST
BECOMES A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A STRONG
TROUGH AND LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHEAST AND WILL PUSH
COLDER AIR SOUTH. ITS UNCLEAR HOW FAR SOUTH THAT COLD AIR WILL
MAKE IT. IF WE SEE THE COOLER AIR MAKE IT HERE HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE 50S, IF THE THE WARMER AIR WINS OUT WE WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE
60S AND 70S. THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE UNSETTLE AND
UNCERTAIN AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK. WE LOOK TO BE IN ZONAL FLOW
WITH SOME TROUGHS PASSING TO OUR NORTH. THIS WILL BRING RAIN
CHANCES FROM TIME TO TIME. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 60S.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1128 AM CST WED FEB 25 2026
SHOWERS MOVE IN THIS EVENING, AFFECTING ALL TAF SITES FROM WEST TO
EAST. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE, BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE
NORTH AROUND 12Z. CEILINGS WILL BECOME IFR, EVEN LIFR IN THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AND THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 61 48 61 41 / 40 100 50 10
CLARKSVILLE 60 44 58 38 / 40 90 30 0
CROSSVILLE 53 45 58 40 / 30 100 60 10
COLUMBIA 59 49 62 42 / 30 90 60 10
COOKEVILLE 55 46 58 40 / 40 100 50 10
JAMESTOWN 54 44 56 37 / 40 100 50 10
LAWRENCEBURG 59 49 63 43 / 20 90 70 20
MURFREESBORO 60 49 62 41 / 30 100 60 10
WAVERLY 59 47 59 40 / 30 90 40 10
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...MUELLER
LONG TERM....MUELLER
AVIATION.....HOLLEY
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