783
FXUS64 KOHX 190003
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
703 PM CDT FRI SEP 18 2026
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 656 PM CDT FRI SEP 18 2026
- VERY HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WITH TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT INDICES
CONTINUE. A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY FOR MOST
OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE.
- LOW RAIN CHANCES MAINLY FOR THE PLATEAU THIS WEEKEND WITH A LOW
CHANCE FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORM WINDS SATURDAY. LOW TO MEDIUM
RAIN CHANCES SPREAD AREA-WIDE MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES ARRIVE NEXT WEEK, BUT STILL REMAINING ABOVE
NORMAL.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 656 PM CDT FRI SEP 18 2026
AN UPDATE WAS ISSUED TO ADJUST HOURLY TRENDS, BUT NO MAJOR CHANGES
ARE NEEDED TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING.
VERY HOT WX CONTINUES UNDER A POWERFUL RIDGE. ONE BREAK LATE THIS
AFTERNOON HAS COME WITH DEEP VERTICAL ALLOWING DEW POINTS TO DROP,
INCLUDING A DEW POINT UNDER 60 AT BNA. THIS HAS MADE THE AIR FEEL
MORE TOLERABLE WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES MOSTLY LOW TO MID 90S AT
THIS TIME.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1120 AM CDT FRI SEP 18 2026
ANOTHER DAY OF POTENTIALLY RECORD-BREAKING HEAT AS LATE MORNING
TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY AT 90 DEGREES IN SOME SPOTS. RIDGING IS
BEGINNING A SLOW RETREAT SOUTHWEST, BUT IT'S INFLUENCE WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MONDAY. NASHVILLE'S HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORD TODAY IS 99
(1953); THE FORECAST HIGH TODAY IS 99. IF WE REACH THAT, TODAY WOULD
MAKE 4 CONSECUTIVE DAYS OF EITHER BREAKING OR TYING THE HIGH
TEMPERATURE RECORD. HIGHS WILL REMAIN AROUND THE SAME VALUES
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID
70S WEST OF THE PLATEAU. THERE IS ANOTHER VERY LOW CHANCE FOR AN
ISOLATED STORM THIS AFTERNOON, BUT AS WITH SIMILAR DAYS, MOST WILL
REMAIN DRY. AS THE RIDGE PULLS WEST, A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL BE
ALLOWED TO RIDE ACROSS THE RIDGE TOMORROW, BRINGING A HIGHER
CHANCE FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FOR AREAS
ALONG AND EAST OF I-65. WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
ANTICIPATED, BUT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS COULD OCCUR IN
THE STRONGEST STORMS GIVEN STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DCAPE
VALUES OVER 1000 J/KG.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1120 AM CDT FRI SEP 18 2026
THE HEAT WILL STICK WITH US THROUGH THE START OF NEXT WEEK. A HEAT
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY FOR HEAT INDICIES OF 105+.
A TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY THAT WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER, MORE
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO RETURN TO THE FORECAST.
THE TROUGHING PATTERN LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEK
WITH LONG RANGE GUIDANCE HINTING AT A STRONG UPPER LOW DIPPING
DOWN OVER THE SOUTHEAST. SHOULD THIS HAPPEN, WE WOULD FINALLY SEE
A PUMPKIN SPICE-ESQUE CHANGE IN OUR TEMPERATURES. THE NBM IS ALSO
OPTIMISTIC WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S BY THE END OF
NEXT WEEK AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S....YES,
50S AND 60S!! WE'LL CONTINUE TO MONITOR 500MB LONG RANGE TRENDS
AND KEEP OUR FINGERS CROSSED THAT THIS PATTERN SHIFT IS ON THE
WAY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 617 PM CDT FRI SEP 18 2026
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES ITS DOMINANCE OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE WEATHER.
TAFS ARE VFR WITH THE EXCEPTION OF OVERNIGHT RADIATION FOG AT KCSV
AND ESPECIALLY KSRB. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT/CALM THROUGH THE PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 74 99 75 99 / 10 10 10 0
CLARKSVILLE 72 99 73 99 / 10 0 0 0
CROSSVILLE 67 91 67 89 / 10 30 10 20
COLUMBIA 72 100 72 100 / 0 10 0 0
COOKEVILLE 70 94 70 93 / 10 20 10 10
JAMESTOWN 68 90 68 89 / 10 30 10 10
LAWRENCEBURG 71 98 71 97 / 0 20 10 10
MURFREESBORO 72 100 73 99 / 10 10 10 10
WAVERLY 73 98 74 98 / 0 0 0 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR TNZ005>010-023>033-
056>065-075-077-078-093>095.
UPDATE.......13
SHORT TERM...BAGGETT
LONG TERM....BAGGETT
AVIATION.....ROSE
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