109
FXUS64 KOHX 191132
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
632 AM CDT SUN JUL 19 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 629 AM CDT SUN JUL 19 2026
- DAILY ROUNDS OF STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HEAVY
RAIN RESULTING IN FLASH FLOODING IS GOING TO BE THE MAIN
IMPACT, ALTHOUGH SOME STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.
- HEAT INDICES WILL REACH THE LOW 100S WEST OF THE CUMBERLAND
PLATEAU INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TUESDAY WILL BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF
THE PERIOD WITH HEAT INDICES NEARING OR EXCEEDING 105 DEGREES.
- SLIGHTLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR IS EXPECTED FROM WEDNESDAY
ONWARD.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1054 PM CDT SAT JUL 18 2026
WE REMAIN IN A VERY HUMID SUMMERTIME PATTERN WITH A MOIST AIRMASS
IN PLACE, SUPPORTING DAILY ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAIN THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING, MAINLY LIMITED TO N OF I-40 AND ALONG THE UPPER
CUMBERLAND. HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOW/MID 90S AND AGAIN ON MONDAY. HEAT INDICES WILL
CONSISTENTLY APPROACH 100+ DEGREES EACH AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND
STORMS BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD EACH AFTERNOON, BRINGING HEAVY
DOWNPOURS, GUSTY WINDS, AND THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING. THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT REMAINS LOW.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1054 PM CDT SAT JUL 18 2026
THE HOT AND HUMID PATTER WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY TO MID WEEK WITH
HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE HOTTEST DAY, WITH FEEL LIKE TEMPERATURES
HOVERING AROUND 105 DEGREES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A HEAT ADVISORY
MAY BE NEEDED WITH FOLLOWING FORECAST UPDATES. SCATTERED STORM
CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE PERIOD. A SOMEWHAT
DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER PATTERN IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS. HIGHS WILL STILL REACH
THE LOW TO MID 90S WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 70S.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 629 AM CDT SUN JUL 19 2026
GUIDANCE IS STARTING TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON A FOGGY
OVERNIGHT PERIOD INTO MONDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY FOR THE PLATEAU.
WITH THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE CONTENT WE HAVE COUPLED WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND A THIN CIRRUS SHIELD, AT LEAST PATCHY FOG IS PRETTY MUCH
A GIVEN. OTHERWISE, KEPT A PERSISTENCE FORECAST WITH PROB30S FOR
AFTERNOON CONVECTION.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 91 74 92 75 / 70 40 50 10
CLARKSVILLE 91 73 91 75 / 70 30 40 0
CROSSVILLE 84 68 85 70 / 70 20 50 20
COLUMBIA 91 72 91 73 / 50 40 50 10
COOKEVILLE 86 70 87 72 / 70 30 40 10
JAMESTOWN 85 68 86 70 / 80 20 50 10
LAWRENCEBURG 90 71 90 73 / 60 40 60 10
MURFREESBORO 91 72 92 74 / 70 40 40 10
WAVERLY 91 72 91 74 / 60 30 30 10
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...CRAVENS
LONG TERM....CRAVENS
AVIATION.....DIRKES
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