788
FXUS64 KOHX 051943
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
243 PM CDT WED AUG 5 2020
DISCUSSION
MID AND UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES TO GRIP MUCH OF THE
SOUTHWESTERN U.S. AND PLAINS, WHILE GENERAL TROUGHING CONTINUES
OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST. WE FIND OURSELVES BETWEEN THE
TWO FEATURES AND IN A MUCH LESS DISTINCT PATTERN. THE BENEFIT HAS
BEEN COOLER AND VERY PLEASANT CONDITIONS FOR THE TN/OH VALLEY. A
FEW RAIN SHOWERS HAVE FORMED OVER THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU THIS
AFTERNOON AND ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS THE SUN SETS. RAIN CHANCES
THROUGH FRIDAY WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO THE PLATEAU, THOUGH NOT
EVERYONE THERE WILL SEE MEASURABLE RAINFALL. SATURDAY WILL BE
LARGELY DRY BUT WARMING CONSIDERABLY, AS TEMPERATURES SOAR INTO
THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S. HEAT INDICES COULD PUSH THE CENTURY
MARK, MAINLY ALONG THE TN RIVER.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN SHIFTING NORTH OUT OF AL/MS ON
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, SETTING THE STAGE FOR INCREASING RAIN CHANCES
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE MIDWEST,
BUT IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN HOW FAR SOUTH THIS FRONT WILL MOVE.
THUS, WE LOOK TO REMAIN IN A WEAK ZONAL FLOW PATTERN THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SUBTLE MID-LEVEL
DISTURBANCES TO TRAVERSE THE AREA. ANY ONE OF THESE COULD SPARK
RAIN AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. THE CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY WILL BE TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, BUT AGAIN, NOT EVERYONE SEES MEASURABLE
RAINFALL. WHILE INCREASED INSTABILITY AND FORCING IS EXPECTED,
ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT IN THE CARDS RIGHT NOW.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE FOR EARLY
AUGUST, WITH TOTAL QPF ONLY AMOUNTING TO ONE OR TWO-TENTHS OF AN
INCH (ON AVERAGE) THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.
VFR CONDITIONS WITH NORTHERLY WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS EXPECTED
TODAY. WILL INCLUDE SOME VCTS FOR CSV AS THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE PLATEAU THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS BECOMING LIGHT OVERNIGHT. CIGS AND
VIS COULD BECOME MVFR/IFR AT CKV AND CSV DUE TO LIGHT FOG.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 65 87 65 90 67 / 0 10 0 0 0
CLARKSVILLE 62 83 62 86 65 / 0 0 0 0 0
CROSSVILLE 63 82 62 84 63 / 20 40 10 10 0
COLUMBIA 65 87 64 90 66 / 0 10 0 0 0
LAWRENCEBURG 65 87 64 90 66 / 10 10 0 10 0
WAVERLY 63 84 63 88 66 / 0 0 0 0 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION......SCHAPER
AVIATION........12
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