437
FXUS64 KOHX 161726
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1126 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1126 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2025
- CONTINUED WARMING TREND THROUGH MID WEEK.
- HIGH CHANCE FOR RAIN AND A FEW STORMS ON THURSDAY. VERY LOW
CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.
- ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED THROUGH THE CHRISTMAS
HOLIDAY.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1045 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2025
AN AREA OF STRATUS HAS MOVED OVER THE NORTHERN 2/3 OF MIDDLE TN
THIS MORNING WHICH MAY HAVE DELAYED OUR WARMING A LITTLE FOR THE
DAY. THANKFULLY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE INCREASING AND THERE'S
SUNSHINE OFF TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WITH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE IN
THE AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD FIND THEIR WAY INTO THE UPPER
40S TO LOWER 50S, UNLESS CLOUDS WANT TO STICK AROUND THROUGH PEAK
HEATING WHICH MAY TEMPER THINGS DOWN A COUPLE DEGREES MAINLY
NORTH OF I-40.
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AGAIN TONIGHT WITH THE APPROACH
OF A SHORTWAVE PERTURBATION OUT OF THE TX/OK AREA. THERE MAY BE A
FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TOMORROW AS A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY
APPROACHES, BUT OVERALL MOISTURE QUALITY WILL BE LACKING TO HAVE
ANY MEANINGFUL RAINFALL. OTHERWISE, WE'LL CONTINUE TO WARM
TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH THE LOW TO MID 50S FORECAST DESPITE
LINGERING CLOUDS.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1045 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2025
A POTENT UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
PLAINS TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM
CONTAINS ABUNDANT KINEMATICS, WITH THE 500 MB JET INCREASING TO
ALMOST 100 KTS ACROSS THE OZARKS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WHAT'S MORE
INTERESTING IS THE PRIMARY VORT MAX IS FORECAST TO MOVE ESE WHICH
WILL PROVIDE STRONG HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS OUR REGION THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WHILE THE LOW-LEVEL JET CRANKS UP TO 50-60 KTS. WITH
STRONG WARM/MOIST ADVECTION AND FORCING ALOFT, RAIN CHANCES REMAIN
VERY HIGH THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. MOST LIKELY RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE
IN THE 0.50" TO 1.0" RANGE. FURTHERMORE, NON-ZERO VALUES OF
MLCAPE (<200 J/KG) ARE APPEARING ON SOME MODEL GUIDANCE DESPITE
PRE-FRONTAL DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. SOME THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE WHICH MAY POSE A THREAT FOR STRONG (POTENTIALLY
DAMAGING) WIND GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, DEPENDING
ON THE SPEED/TIMING OF THE FRONT OF COURSE. OVERALL SEVERE
CHANCES REMAIN VERY LOW THANKS TO THE LIMITED NATURE OF SURFACE-
BASED INSTABILITY AND SEVERAL POINT SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING STORMS
MAY REMAIN ELEVATED IN NATURE.
WE'LL HAVE A BRIEF COOL-DOWN ON FRIDAY ONCE THE STRONG COLD FRONT
BLASTS THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER, THE WEATHER
PATTERN LOOKS TO REMAIN QUITE ACTIVE THROUGH THE PERIOD AND
MEDIUM-RANGE GUIDANCE/ENSEMBLES SUGGEST ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK OWING TO A LONGWAVE RIDGE DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL CONUS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1126 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2025
A MVFR CLOUD DECK IS GOING TO SLOWLY EXIT TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT OUT OF THE SSW
AND SW THROUGH THE PERIOD BELOW 10 KNOTS. ANOTHER CLOUD DECK WILL
MOVE IN OVERNIGHT INTO 12Z WEDNESDAY, AND COULD REACH MVFR HEIGHTS
BUT WE'RE UNCERTAIN OF THAT RIGHT NOW.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 51 36 55 44 / 0 0 20 20
CLARKSVILLE 49 36 55 46 / 0 0 10 30
CROSSVILLE 49 32 50 38 / 0 0 10 10
COLUMBIA 51 35 54 43 / 0 10 20 30
COOKEVILLE 48 34 50 41 / 0 0 10 20
JAMESTOWN 48 33 50 38 / 0 0 10 10
LAWRENCEBURG 51 35 52 43 / 0 0 20 20
MURFREESBORO 51 35 54 43 / 0 0 20 20
WAVERLY 49 36 53 45 / 0 10 10 30
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...SIZEMORE
LONG TERM....SIZEMORE
AVIATION.....HOLLEY
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