413
FXUS64 KOHX 020500
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1200 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1157 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2026
- EXPECT DANGEROUS HEAT AND HUMIDITY THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK. AN
EXTREME HEAT WARNING IS IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA.
- HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 90S ACROSS THE
WARNING AREA, WITH AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES AS HOT AS 110+.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO REMAIN UNCOMFORTABLY WARM, ONLY FALLING
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S MOST AREAS.
- SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORM CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THE STRONGEST STORMS MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS
AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1045 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2026
TEMPERATURES REMAIN VERY WARM AT THIS HOUR EXCEPT IN THE SOUTHWEST
WHERE A ROUND OF STORMS MOVED THROUGH. THOSE STORMS DID PRODUCE SOME
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, SMALL HAIL, AND HEAVY RAIN. PATCHY FOG
WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT IN SOME OF THOSE AREAS THAT PICKED UP SOME
RAIN THIS AFTERNOON.
THE ATMOSPHERE LOOKS VERY SIMILAR TOMORROW COMPARED TO THIS
AFTERNOON WITH STEEP LOW AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES, AMPLE
INSTABILITY, AND VERY LOW SHEAR. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON WITH
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT BEING KICKED OFF BY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. AS
UPDRAFTS COLLAPSE, WET MICROBURSTS AND STRONG GUST FRONT WINDS
WILL BE POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION, RAINFALL WILL BE HEAVY WITH STORMS
AND POSE A LOW END LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING THREAT. ACTIVITY WILL
BE DIURNAL IN NATURE AND WILL DECREASE AFTER SUNSET.
WE HAVEN'T EVEN TALKED ABOUT THE TEMPERATURES YET. THE EXTREME HEAT
RISK WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS ONCE AGAIN IN THE MID TO
UPPER 90S AND HEAT INDICES IN THE 100-110+ DEGREE RANGE. STORMS AND
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL PROVIDE SOME RELIEF TO THOSE LUCKY ENOUGH TO
PICK UP SOME RAIN OR BE IN THE VICINITY OF STORMS. OTHERWISE, LOW
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S. THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS BACK IN
THE MID AND UPPER 90S, HEAT INDICES IN THE 100-110+ RANGE, AND
STORMS DEVELOPING IN THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED
DOWNBURSTS AND HEAVY RAIN.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1045 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2026
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND DRIFT EASTWARD ON
INDEPENDENCE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER, BUT
THE HEAT WILL STILL BE DANGEROUS WITH HEAT INDICES IN THE 100-110
RANGE. SCATTERED STORMS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH
COVERAGE DECREASING AFTER DARK. THE RIDGE WILL MOVE FURTHER EAST
ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S. POPS WILL INCREASE AS
WELL. THE TREND WILL CARRY INTO NEXT WEEK AS A TROUGH SETS UP IN
THE PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. WE'LL SEE DAILY MEDIUM
STORM CHANCES WITH HIGHS BACK TO NORMAL IN THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S
BY MIDWEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1157 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2026
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS THIS TAF CYCLE. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION SHOULD BE CSV/SRB WITH MVFR TO OCCASIONAL IFR VIS BEFORE
SUNRISE THURSDAY. ADDITIONALLY, TS WILL BE AROUND MIDDLE TN ON
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ATTM, DUE TO THE SCATTERED NATURE, WILL
PRECLUDE ANY PREVAILING MENTION AND ADJUST WITH FUTURE UPDATES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 79 98 78 98 / 10 30 20 50
CLARKSVILLE 77 97 77 97 / 0 20 20 40
CROSSVILLE 72 93 73 94 / 0 20 10 40
COLUMBIA 76 98 75 98 / 10 30 30 50
COOKEVILLE 73 94 74 94 / 0 20 10 40
JAMESTOWN 71 93 72 94 / 0 10 10 30
LAWRENCEBURG 75 95 74 95 / 10 30 30 60
MURFREESBORO 76 99 76 99 / 10 30 20 50
WAVERLY 76 96 76 96 / 10 30 30 50
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR TNZ005>010-
023>032-056>064-075-093>095.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR TNZ011-033-034-065-066-
077>080.
SHORT TERM...REAGAN
LONG TERM....REAGAN
AVIATION.....UNGER
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