599
FXUS64 KOHX 141700
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1200 PM CDT WED OCT 14 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1144 AM CDT WED OCT 14 2026
- UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER WILL LAST THROUGH THURSDAY WITH RECORD
HIGHS POSSIBLE.
- THERE ARE MEDIUM TO HIGH RAIN/STORM CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ALONG AND NORTH OF I-40.
- A DRY, BREEZY COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE ON FRIDAY, BRINGING MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1057 AM CDT WED OCT 14 2026
RECORD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND AGAIN TOMORROW AS
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN
ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. A SURFACE
BOUNDARY IS LURKING NOT FAR TO OUR NORTHWEST, BUT IT WILL BE
ANOTHER 48 HOURS OR SO BEFORE THE COLD FRONT ACTUALLY COMES
THROUGH MIDDLE TENNESSEE. IN THE MEANTIME, WE EXPECT CONVECTION TO
BEGIN DEVELOPING BY EARLY AFTERNOON TODAY AND CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING OWING TO THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY,
EXISTING ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY AND RECORD PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES FOR THIS DATE. MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL REMAIN NORTH OF
I-40, AND QPF VALUES OVERALL ARE QUITE MODEST, ALTHOUGH ISOLATED
SPOTS COULD RECEIVE BRIEF, HEAVY RAINFALL. FORTUNATELY, THE RISK
OF ANY SEVERE STORMS REMAINS VERY LOW. THE PRIMARY IMPACT TODAY
AND TOMORROW IS GOING TO BE THE HEAT. TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL
LIKELY BE EVEN WARMER THAN TODAY'S AS WARM AIR PILES UP AGAINST
THE SURFACE BOUNDARY AS IT CRAWLS TOWARD MIDDLE TENNESSEE.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1057 AM CDT WED OCT 14 2026
WE EXPECT FROPA TO OCCUR IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE ON FRIDAY, AFTER
WHICH THERE WILL BE A DRAMATIC DROP IN TEMPERATURES. IN FACT, THE
DROP WILL BE SO DRAMATIC THAT SOME FROST MIGHT ACTUALLY OCCUR
SUNDAY MORNING ALONG THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU AND OTHER COOL SPOTS.
FRIDAY'S FROPA WILL BE A DRY ONE, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW
SHOWERS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CUMBERLAND
PLATEAU. AFTER THAT, RAIN CHANCES GOING FORWARD ARE NON-EXISTENT
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE 7-DAY FORECAST. TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK
WILL REBOUND SOMEWHAT, BUT WILL REMAIN PLEASANT AND AUTUMN-LIKE.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1144 AM CDT WED OCT 14 2026
VFR WILL PREVAIL THIS TAF CYCLE WITH THE POSSIBLE BRIEF EXCEPTION
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
A SLOW APPROACHING FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST AND SHORT RANGE
MODELS JUSTIFY INCLUSION OF TEMPO FOR CKV AND PROB30 FOR BNA/MQY.
OUTSIDE OF ANY STORMS, WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY SW 5-10 KT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 90 70 92 66 / 20 30 10 0
CLARKSVILLE 88 69 92 62 / 70 60 10 0
CROSSVILLE 84 64 84 62 / 0 20 10 0
COLUMBIA 91 68 93 65 / 10 10 10 0
COOKEVILLE 86 67 87 64 / 0 20 10 0
JAMESTOWN 85 66 86 65 / 0 20 10 0
LAWRENCEBURG 90 66 90 63 / 0 10 10 0
MURFREESBORO 92 68 92 65 / 0 20 10 0
WAVERLY 86 69 90 63 / 70 40 10 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM....ROSE
AVIATION.....13
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