739
FXUS64 KOHX 130513
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1213 AM CDT SUN SEP 13 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1210 AM CDT SUN SEP 13 2026
- PATCHY FOG EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT, ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-65.
- TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS.
HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE 100S ARE EXPECTED EVERY DAY THROUGH
THURSDAY, MAINLY FOR AREAS WEST OF THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU.
- WE MAY START TO SEE A GRADUAL COOL-DOWN NEXT WEEKEND, ALONG WITH
OUR NEXT RAIN CHANCES, BUT THERE IS A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINLY
REGARDING SPECIFIC TIMING.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1017 PM CDT SAT SEP 12 2026
I DON'T KNOW ABOUT YOU, BUT I'M READY FOR FALL. UNFORTUNATELY, WE'VE
STILL GOT AT LEAST ANOTHER WEEK OF THIS SUMMER HEAT. EVEN WORSE,
RAIN CHANCES ARE GOING TO VANISH TOMORROW. I MIGHT HAVE SOME GOOD
NEWS, BUT I'LL SAVE IT FOR THE END. A COUPLE TINY SHOWERS CONTINUE
TO PLAGUE THE PLATEAU AT FORECAST TIME. NOTHING HEAVY, BUT IT MIGHT
BE A COUPLE MORE HOURS BEFORE THE RADAR IS COMPLETELY CLEAR. IN ANY
EVENT, I STILL THINK PATCHY FOG WILL START TO DEVELOP AROUND
MIDNIGHT. I DON'T FORESEE IT BEING TOO WIDESPREAD, BUT AREAS EAST OF
I-65 MIGHT DEAL WITH SOME LOCALIZED DENSE FOG BY DAYBREAK. USE
CAUTION AS YOU HEAD OUT IN THESE AREAS SUNDAY MORNING.
AS I SAID, RAIN CHANCES ARE GOING TO DISAPPEAR TOMORROW. THAT'S GOOD
IF YOU HAVE OUTDOORS PLANS. WHAT'S NOT GOOD IF YOU HAVE OUTDOOR
PLANS IS GOING TO BE THE PERSISTENT HEAT AND HUMIDITY. TEMPERATURES
AND HEAT INDEX VALUES SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO WHAT WE SAW ON
SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALSO BE THE CASE ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW 90S AND HEAT INDEX VALUES WEST OF THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU IN
THE LOW 100S.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1017 PM CDT SAT SEP 12 2026
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK MAY BE THE PROBLEM CHILD OF THIS FORECAST.
MOST, IF NOT ALL, MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A STRONG, AMPLIFIED
UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THIS WILL BE THE
CULPRIT IN PUSHING AFTERNOON HIGHS BACK INTO THE MIDDLE (AND SOME
UPPER) 90S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. DEW POINTS SHOULD BE SUCH THAT
WE'LL BE VERY CLOSE TO HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA BOTH DAYS. BY
THURSDAY, THE RIDGE WILL START TO WEAKEN AND TEMPERATURES COULD BE A
TOUCH COOLER, BUT WE'LL RUN NEAR 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
FRIDAY SHOULD BE THE START OF *SOME* RELIEF. TEMPERATURES IN OUR
EXTENDED GUIDANCE ARE EXPECTED TO BACK OFF TO WHERE THEY CURRENTLY
ARE AND RAIN CHANCES SHOULD RETURN TO THE FORECAST. NOW, HOW THEY
RETURN IS THE QUESTION. LATEST GFS SUGGESTS A FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH
THE REGION ON FRIDAY. EURO HAS MORE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHINESS WITHOUT
A FRONTAL PASSAGE. OBVIOUSLY THERE'S PLENTY OF DETAILS TO WORK OUT
HERE, BUT WHAT EACH IS SHOWING IS LARGE UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S. IN THE 7-10 DAY RANGE. COULD THIS BE OUR
FIRST BREAK IN THE HEAT IN QUITE SOME TIME?
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1210 AM CDT SUN SEP 13 2026
PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL BRING IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES THROUGH
13Z FOR THE PLATEAU, OTHER TERMINALS WILL SEE VFR. QUIET WEATHER
TOMORROW WITH SOME LOW TO MID-LEVEL CLOUDS. LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT
BECOME NORTHERLY UP TO 5 KNOTS AFTER 15Z.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 94 72 92 71 / 0 0 0 0
CLARKSVILLE 95 70 91 69 / 0 10 0 0
CROSSVILLE 86 65 86 63 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBIA 95 70 95 69 / 0 0 0 0
COOKEVILLE 88 67 88 67 / 0 0 0 0
JAMESTOWN 86 66 85 64 / 0 10 0 0
LAWRENCEBURG 94 69 94 69 / 0 0 0 0
MURFREESBORO 95 70 95 70 / 0 0 0 0
WAVERLY 95 71 93 71 / 0 0 0 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...UNGER
LONG TERM....UNGER
AVIATION.....MUELLER
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