472
FXUS64 KOHX 192346
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
646 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2026
..NEW UPDATE, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 642 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2026
- DRY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH HIGH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
- LOW CHANCE FOR STRONG STORMS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH GUSTY WINDS
BEING THE PRIMARY CONCERN.
- SEASONABLY WARM AND HUMID WEATHER WITH ON AND OFF CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 642 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2026
NO BIG UPDATES TO PASS ALONG FROM THE FORECAST DESK. CONDITIONS
ARE QUIET/STABLE ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE THANKS TO DRIER AIR AND
HIGH PRESSURE IN THE REGION. WEATHER WILL BECOME MORE ACTIVE ON
SUNDAY.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1209 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2026
SHORT WAVE RIDGE AND A WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ARE
SINKING INTO MIDDLE TN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND THIS WILL BRING
QUIET CONDITIONS FOR TODAY. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL ALSO WELCOME IN
MORE COMFORTABLE DEW POINTS, YESTERDAY THIS TIME OF DAY THEY WERE
WELL INTO THE MID 70S, WE SHOULD SEE THEM FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S BY THE END OF THE DAY. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH PASSING
TO OUR SOUTHWEST WILL BRING SOME HIGH CLOUDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY
INTO THE OVERNIGHT. HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOW
TO MID 80S. WE WILL SEE A REFRESHING NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS 4 TO 8 DEGREES COOLER THAN THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE WEAKENING AND PUSHING OFF TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY
BUT WILL STILL HAVE AN INFLUENCE ON OUR WEATHER KEEPING THINGS
QUIET. HIGHS WILL BE WARMER PUSHING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL START TO PUSH DEW POINTS BACK UP AS WE HEAD
INTO THE EVENING.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1209 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2026
OVERALL QUIET WEATHER WILL PERSIST INTO SATURDAY NIGHT BUT
HUMIDITY WILL BE INCREASING AS A SHORT WAVE DIGS OUT OF THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON
AS WE SEE WARM AIR ADVECTION AND A WARM FRONT DEVELOP TO OUR
NORTH. THE SHORT WAVE AND SURFACE LOW WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH
SUNDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON DRAGGING A COLD FRONT EAST
THROUGH MIDDLE TN.
INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE WARM SECTOR WILL INCREASE
TO 1000-2000 J/KG WITH BULK SHEAR 25-30 KNOTS. THE FORCING WITH
THE COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY WILL MAINLY STAY TO OUR WEST BUT WILL
START TO PUSH INTO THE WESTERN PART OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST THROUGH THE
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON ON MONDAY. GIVEN THE CAPE AND SHEAR
STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WITH WEAKER
FORCING SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THE THREAT WILL OVERALL BE
VERY LOW FOR STRONG STORMS BUT AS WE HEAD INTO SUNDAY NIGHT THERE
IS A LOW CHANCE FOR STRONG STORMS FROM AROUND NASHVILLE WESTWARD.
A LOW LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY NIGHT AND THAT WILL INCREASE
OUR 0-3 KM HELICITY TO 200-300. STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE
PRIMARY THREAT WITH STRONG STORMS BUT GIVEN THE INCREASED LOW
LEVEL SHEAR CAN'T RULE OUT TORNADOES. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
WORK SOUTH AND EAST DURING THE DAY MONDAY AND THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON HOW MUCH CAPE WE SEE BUILD IN AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
ENSEMBLES SUPPORT INCREASED CAPE AHEAD OF THE FRONT FOR AREAS
MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF NASHVILLE. LOW LEVEL HELICITY WILL BACK
OFF MONDAY AFTERNOON AND THAT WILL BRING MAINLY A GUSTY WIND
THREAT WITH THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL.
THE FRONT WILL LINGER NEAR THE TN/AL BOARDER ON TUESDAY AND THAT
WILL KEEP LOW RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST BUT SEVERE WEATHER IS
NOT EXPECTED. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AND WE WILL SEE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR BUILD IN. HIGH
PRESSURE SET UP TO OUR NORTH WILL KEEP THINGS MAINLY DRY. FLOW
WILL BECOME A BIT MORE ZONAL LATE IN THE WEEK AND SOME EMBEDDED
SHORT WAVES WILL BRING SOME RAIN CHANCES. HIGHS WILL BE WARM
AGAIN SUNDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S BUT WE WILL SEE THEM COOL
INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S MONDAY AND STAY THERE FOR MUCH OF THE
WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1211 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2026
VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD. CURRENT WINDS
ARE N AND <10KTS AND SHOULD CALM THIS EVENING. WINDS BECOME E TO
SE TOMORROW WITH FEW/SCT AFTERNOON CUMULUS. NO RAIN/STORMS
EXPECTED UNTIL SUNDAY. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE NEAR SRB AND CSV
TONIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 63 88 68 88 / 0 0 10 70
CLARKSVILLE 61 87 67 87 / 0 0 10 70
CROSSVILLE 57 83 62 83 / 0 0 10 60
COLUMBIA 61 86 68 88 / 0 10 10 70
COOKEVILLE 59 84 64 85 / 0 0 10 60
JAMESTOWN 57 84 61 85 / 0 0 0 60
LAWRENCEBURG 61 85 67 85 / 0 10 10 70
MURFREESBORO 61 88 67 89 / 0 0 10 70
WAVERLY 62 86 68 87 / 0 0 10 70
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE.......SIZEMORE
SHORT TERM...MUELLER
LONG TERM....MUELLER
AVIATION.....SIZEMORE
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page