667
FXUS64 KOHX 191717
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1117 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1115 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2025
- AFTER A COOL FRIDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND FOR THE WEEKEND
WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S.
- LOW TO MEDIUM SHOWER CHANCES RETURN MONDAY AND TUESDAY. NO
HAZARDOUS WEATHER EXPECTED.
- CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY LOOK WARM AND DRY WITH HIGHS IN
THE 60S TO LOWER 70S.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1054 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2025
A POTENT COLD FRONT MOVED THROUGH MIDDLE TN THURSDAY EVENING WITH
HEAVY DOWNPOURS, WIDESPREAD GUSTY WINDS, AND POCKETS OF WIND
DAMAGE. THANKFULLY, CONDITIONS WERE QUIET TODAY. SKIES WERE SUNNY
AND TEMPERATURES WERE COOL, WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. A WEST BREEZE UP TO 20 MPH WAS MAKING IT
FEEL A LITTLE COOLER.
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY THE CENTER OF DRY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE TO OUR EAST AS NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES ZONAL.
THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A SEASONABLY COOL NIGHT FOLLOWED BY
STRONG WARMING WITH GUSTY SOUTH WINDS ON SATURDAY. HIGHS WILL WARM
WELL INTO THE 50S, OR AROUND 15 DEGREES HIGHER THAN TODAY.
A WEAK FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. MODEL HAVE
BEEN TRENDING DRIER WITH THIS FRONT AND OUR LATEST FORECAST WILL
SHOW NO MENTIONABLE POPS. PERHAPS A FEW SPRINKLES WILL ACCOMPANY
THE FRONT. IT WILL BRING IN A NEW AIR MASS FROM THE NORTH WITH
SLIGHTLY COOLER BUT NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY. WINDS FOR
SUNDAY WILL COME OUT OF THE NORTH AROUND 10 MPH- MUCH LESS GUSTY
THAN SATURDAY.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1054 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2025
A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION IN THE ZONAL
FLOW MONDAY AND TUESDAY. MOST OF THE ENERGY WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
STAY TO OUR NORTH, BUT IT WILL SET UP A BROAD WARM, MOIST
ADVECTION PATTERN FOR US THAT WILL RESULT IN MILD TEMPS WITH
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS (20 TO 40 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES).
AFTER THE SHORTWAVE PASSES, A RIDGE WILL BUILD UP BRINGING WARM
CONDITIONS FOR CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY. HIGHS WILL REACH
THE 60S WITH SOME LOWER 70S. THIS IS AROUND 20 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL! THE RECORD HIGH FOR CHRISTMAS AT BNA IS 76 FROM 2021 AND
2016.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1115 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2025
VFR CONDITIONS THIS TAF CYCLE. WESTERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
OUT OF THE SOUTH THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS
BETWEEN 5-7 KTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 44 30 59 36 / 0 0 0 0
CLARKSVILLE 43 30 58 33 / 0 0 0 0
CROSSVILLE 39 26 53 34 / 0 0 0 10
COLUMBIA 45 30 58 36 / 0 0 0 10
COOKEVILLE 39 28 56 35 / 0 0 0 0
JAMESTOWN 37 27 55 34 / 0 0 0 0
LAWRENCEBURG 45 30 57 38 / 0 0 0 10
MURFREESBORO 45 29 57 36 / 0 0 0 0
WAVERLY 43 30 56 35 / 0 0 0 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION.....BAGGETT
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