302
FXUS64 KOHX 151626
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1126 AM CDT TUE SEP 15 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1120 AM CDT TUE SEP 15 2026
- HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
WITH TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT INDICES. A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR MOST OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
- LOW RAIN CHANCES MAINLY FOR THE PLATEAU THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGHER
RAIN CHANCES RETURNING EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- A GRADUAL COOLDOWN IS ON TAP SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT
TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE-NORMAL FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1120 AM CDT TUE SEP 15 2026
HEAT IMPACTS CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN STORY THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK AS A VERY STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE REGION.
HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON ARE FORECAST TO REACH INTO THE
UPPER-90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES. FOR BNA, THE FORECAST HIGH
TEMPERATURE FOR TODAY IS 99 DEGREES WHICH WOULD BREAK THE DAILY
RECORD OF 98 DEGREES SET BACK IN 1927. A 100-DEGREE READING ISN'T
OUT OF THE QUESTION EITHER WITH LATEST NBM PROBABILITIES GIVING
ABOUT A 50-60% CHANCE OF GETTING THERE. MUCH OF THE SAME IS EXPECTED
ON WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN REACHING INTO THE UPPER-
90S WITH TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT INDICES. WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE, DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH NO RAIN EXPECTED
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1120 AM CDT TUE SEP 15 2026
THIS HOT AND DRY PATTERN IS GOING NOWHERE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK AS THIS HIGH PRESSURE STAYS OVERHEAD THROUGH FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL STAY IN THE UPPER-90S THROUGH FRIDAY WITH READINGS
CONTINUING TO FLIRT WITH DAILY RECORDS. AN EXTENSION OF THE HEAT
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. WHILE SOME SPOTS
MAY NOT TECHNICALLY HIT HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA, THESE FORECAST
TEMPERATURES ARE AT LEAST 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, AND THIS
PROLONGED HEAT WAVE WILL MAKE FOR MAJOR HEAT RISK. THE HIGH FINALLY
SHIFTS WEST THIS WEEKEND, AND TEMPERATURES WILL FALL EVER SO SLOWLY.
A PATTERN CHANGE LOOKS TO FINALLY ARRIVE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH TRACKS TO THE NORTH, SENDING A COLD FRONT SOUTH. THIS
WILL FINALLY DROP TEMPERATURES BELOW 90 DEGREES AND REINTRODUCE
MEDIUM RAIN CHANCES TO THE FORECAST.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 607 AM CDT TUE SEP 15 2026
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WE WILL SEE QUIET WEATHER
WITH A FEW MID-LEVEL CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY WINDS
UP TO 8 KNOTS AFTER 15Z.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 99 76 98 75 / 0 0 10 0
CLARKSVILLE 100 75 99 74 / 0 0 0 0
CROSSVILLE 90 67 90 67 / 0 0 10 0
COLUMBIA 100 73 99 73 / 0 0 0 0
COOKEVILLE 94 71 93 70 / 0 0 10 0
JAMESTOWN 90 69 90 69 / 0 0 0 0
LAWRENCEBURG 97 72 96 72 / 0 0 0 0
MURFREESBORO 100 74 99 73 / 0 0 0 0
WAVERLY 98 76 97 75 / 0 0 0 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR TNZ005>010-023>033-
056>065-075-077-078-093>095.
SHORT TERM...CLEMENTS
LONG TERM....CLEMENTS
AVIATION.....MUELLER
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