136
FXUS64 KOHX 022356
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
656 PM CDT FRI OCT 2 2026
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 655 PM CDT FRI OCT 2 2026
- MEDIUM TO HIGH RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST, BUT SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME.
- LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCE FOR MORE THAN 1 INCH OF RAIN BY THE END OF
THE WEEKEND.
- COOLER, DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 655 PM CDT FRI OCT 2 2026
MUCH WELCOME RAIN HAS BEEN ONGOING TODAY ACROSS MIDDLE TN, AND
NASHVILLE HAS OFFICIALLY PUT AN END TO A 36 DAY STREAK WITH NO
MEASURABLE RAIN. THIS STREAK TIES THE LONGEST STREAK OF 36 DAYS SET
BACK IN 1923, BUT WE ARE NOT GOING TO OUTRIGHT BREAK IT. AS A LARGE
TROUGH IS SET UP TO OUR NORTH, A COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY MAKING ITS WAY
THROUGH MIDDLE TN, AND IT WILL EVENTUALLY STALL OUT TO OUR SOUTH
SATURDAY. PLENTY OF MOISTURE ALONG WITH THE OVERALL TROUGHING
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ROUNDS OF RAIN OVERNIGHT AND
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WHILE YOU MAY HEAR A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER,
SEVERE WEATHER IS STILL NOT EXPECTED.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1045 AM CDT FRI OCT 2 2026
A COLD FRONT IS PUSHING SHOWERS INTO OUR AREA THIS MORNING, BUT IT'S
A SLOW MOVER. WE HAVE SOME SHOWERS POPPING UP AHEAD OF THE MAIN RAIN
AREA, BUT WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE WEATHER. EVEN
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE ON THE ISOLATED SIDE AS THE ASSOCIATED
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH THIS FRONT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN DYNAMICALLY.
CONSIDERING WE STILL HAVE SOME CLOUD FREE AREAS IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE,
THESE AREAS COULD SEE THUNDERSTORMS LATER, BUT AGAIN, NOT A
WIDESPREAD OR SEVERE OCCURRENCE. EXPECT HIGHS TODAY TO GET INTO THE
80S, WITH SOME AREAS MAKING RUNS AT 90 DEGREES. THANKFULLY,COOLER
AIR SHOULD MAKE ITS INITIAL DESCENT INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE THIS
EVENING INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
AS THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECASTED TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS
IT ENTERS MIDDLE TENNESSEE, THIS DOES NOT LOOK TO BE A DROUGHT
BUSTING EVENT. ANY RAIN IS BETTER THAN NO RAIN, THOUGH, AND WE NEED
IT. QPF IS NOT LOOKING AS HIGH AS IT ONCE WAS, WITH MAJORITY OF
AREAS RECEIVING LESS THAN AN INCH OF RAIN OVERALL. THIS IS ON TRACK
WITH THE PWATS WE SAW ON THIS MORNING'S SOUNDING BEING A BIT LOWER
THAN WHAT FORECAST SOUNDINGS WERE SHOWING. SATURDAY, WHILE THE
STATIONARY FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF US, WE WILL STILL BE EXPERIENCING
SOME ISENTROPIC ASCENT, WHICH WILL KEEP THE RAIN COMING. BECAUSE OF
THIS, HIGHS WILL ONLY GET INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1045 AM CDT FRI OCT 2 2026
500MB CHARTS SHOW WE WILL STAY IN A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, AND COMBINE THAT WITH A BRIEF NORTHWARD JAUNT OF THE
STATIONARY FRONT, WE CAN EXPECT TO SEE MORE RAIN SHOWERS SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY MORNING. THIS SHOULD BE THE LAST OF IT, WITH THE FINAL PUSH
OF COLD AIR FOLLOWING BEHIND IT AND GIVING US CRISP, FALL-LIKE
TEMPERATURES. AT LEAST INITIALLY. HIGHS FOR THE WORK WEEK WILL
INITIALLY BE IN THE 70S, BUT SLOWLY WARM BACK INTO THE LOW 80S AS
THE WEEK WEARS ON. THE MORNING LOWS ARE WHERE THE CHILLY AIR
REALLY SHINES, AS TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO THE 40S AND 50S
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MID-WEEK NEXT WEEK. PROBABLY A BIT TOO
EARLY TO BREAK OUT THE FALL WARDROBE, BUT MAYBE INCORPORATE SOME
CARDIGANS OR FLANNELS IF YOU FEEL SO INCLINED NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 653 PM CDT FRI OCT 2 2026
DIFFICULT AVIATION FORECAST TONIGHT. SHOWERS ARE MOVING ACROSS
MIDDLE TN, WITH A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER ALONG THE LEADING EDGE.
LIGHTNING ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED OVER THE LAST HOUR, SO DID NOT
PREVAIL THUNDER AT ANY SITE. SHOWERS WILL PERSIST, ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE PLATEAU AS THERE SHOULD BE REDEVELOPMENT TOMORROW
MORNING. LOW STRATUS/IFR CIGS EXPECTED TO IMPACT ALL SITES.
REDUCED VISIBILITY ANTICIPATED FOR KSRB AND KCSV DUE TO RAIN/FOG.
LOW CEILINGS WILL PERSIST WELL INTO THE DAY TOMORROW, BEFORE
FALLING AGAIN TOMORROW NIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 65 78 65 79 / 50 40 30 40
CLARKSVILLE 61 76 61 80 / 50 10 20 10
CROSSVILLE 64 77 64 73 / 70 60 60 70
COLUMBIA 66 81 66 79 / 60 50 40 50
COOKEVILLE 65 75 65 73 / 60 60 50 60
JAMESTOWN 64 73 64 74 / 80 60 50 60
LAWRENCEBURG 66 81 66 77 / 60 50 40 60
MURFREESBORO 66 81 66 79 / 60 40 40 50
WAVERLY 62 73 63 76 / 50 20 20 30
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE.......CLEMENTS
SHORT TERM...HOLLEY
LONG TERM....HOLLEY
AVIATION.....HUSTED
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