889
FXUS64 KOHX 101715
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1115 AM CST SAT JAN 10 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1115 AM CST SAT JAN 10 2026
- LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING, THEN DRIER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- TEMPERATURES FALL TO NEAR NORMAL SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
THEN GRADUALLY WARM EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- LOW TO MEDIUM RAIN CHANCES RETURN WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1022 AM CST SAT JAN 10 2026
THE BULK OF THE RAIN HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST, BUT THERE'S STILL
PLENTY OF MOISTURE OUT THERE WITH THE PWAT ON THIS MORNING'S
SOUNDING COMING IN AT 1.13 INCHES (WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR JANUARY).
THIS WILL KEEP ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN CONTINUING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON, PRIMARILY ACROSS THE PLATEAU. BUT DRIER AIR IS ON THE
WAY COURTESY OF A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY POSITIONED NEAR THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THIS FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH MIDDLE TN THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, OFFICIALLY PUTTING AN END TO THE RAIN BY
EARLY EVENING. THERE IS A VERY LOW CHANCE FOR SNOW FLURRIES
ACROSS THE UPPER PLATEAU EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, HOWEVER, WITH A
LACK OF MOISTURE BY THIS POINT, NOT EXPECTING ANY IMPACTS. THE
PROBABILITY OF EVEN JUST A DUSTING ACROSS FENTRESS & PICKETT
COUNTIES IS LOW AT AROUND 10%.
THE FRONT WILL ALSO BRING COLDER TEMPERATURES WITH LOWS TONIGHT
DROPPING TO NEAR FREEZING. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE MUCH COLDER THAN
WHAT WE'VE BEEN EXPERIENCING LATELY WITH 30S ON THE PLATEAU AND THE
LOW-40S ELSEWHERE. GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH
TOMORROW WILL MAKE IT FEEL COLDER WITH FEELS-LIKE TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY IN THE 30S.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1022 AM CST SAT JAN 10 2026
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND WITH THE NEW WEEK AS SURFACE WINDS TURN
SOUTHERLY AGAIN. BY TUESDAY, HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER-50S
WITH DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EARLY WEEK. BUT BY THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK, ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE DIGGING SOUTH INTO THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY AREA. THIS BRINGS A LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THERE'S NOT SIGNIFICANT
MOISTURE ADVECTION WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH MODELS SHOWING PWATS
GETTING UP TO AROUND A HALF INCH (NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR). SO FORECAST RAIN TOTALS AREN'T EXPECTED TO BE IMPACTFUL
RIGHT NOW WITH THE CHANCE OF GETTING EVEN A QUARTER OF AN INCH LOW
AT 10-20%. THIS SYSTEM DOES SEND A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
LATE WEDNESDAY, ONCE AGAIN COOLING TEMPERATURES FOR LATE WEEK.
THIS FRONT WILL GIVE ANOTHER LOW CHANCE FOR SNOW FOR THE PLATEAU
LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY, BUT AGAIN, LACK OF MOISTURE
MEANS NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS OR IMPACTS EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME.
TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
MODELS ARE HINTING AT THE UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUING HEADING
INTO NEXT WEEKEND, BUT WITH WIDE DISAGREEMENT, IT'S JUST ENOUGH TO
KEEP LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE FORECAST.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1115 AM CST SAT JAN 10 2026
LOWER IFR CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO MAKE THEIR WAY INTO THE AREA
FROM WEST TO EAST. EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO STICK AROUND INTO
THE EVENING, OR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD IN EASTERN SITES CSV AND
SRB. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AND
COULD GUST UP TO 20 KNOTS. AROUND 00Z SUN, THEY WILL BEGIN TO
LESSEN TO 5-10 KNOTS, BEFORE INCREASING ONCE AGAIN SUNDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 62 33 43 26 / 90 0 0 0
CLARKSVILLE 60 31 41 25 / 80 0 0 0
CROSSVILLE 60 29 35 20 / 100 10 10 0
COLUMBIA 62 32 43 23 / 90 0 0 0
COOKEVILLE 60 30 36 23 / 100 10 10 0
JAMESTOWN 60 28 35 21 / 90 10 10 0
LAWRENCEBURG 62 33 42 23 / 90 0 0 0
MURFREESBORO 63 32 41 22 / 100 0 0 0
WAVERLY 59 31 41 25 / 80 0 0 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...CLEMENTS
LONG TERM....CLEMENTS
AVIATION.....HOLLEY
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