104
FXUS64 KOHX 311718
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1118 AM CST WED DEC 31 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1118 AM CST WED DEC 31 2025
- DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL NEW YEAR'S EVE.
- TEMPERATURES CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL STARTING THURSDAY.
- NEXT RAIN CHANCES FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT. NO
HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1118 AM CST WED DEC 31 2025
SOME HIGH CLOUDS ARE MAKING THEIR WAY SOUTH INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE
THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE 30S CURRENTLY, BUT ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 40S AND POSSIBLY EVEN THE LOW 50S THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS IS DUE TO WINDS OUT OF THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST OVER
THE MID-SOUTH TODAY. INTO 2026, TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM
INTO THE 50S FOR HIGHS, UNTIL OUR NEXT RAINMAKER ARRIVES ON FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1118 AM CST WED DEC 31 2025
FRIDAY, A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SE FROM THE GREAT PLAINS,
AND FIND ITSELF AT THE KY/TN BORDER. THE ATTACHED COLD FRONT,
COMBINED WITH A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE GULF COASTAL STATES,
WILL BRING SOME DECENT RAIN CHANCES OUR WAY FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. LOOKING AT GUIDANCE, WE'RE NOT EXPECTING ANY
WINTRY WEATHER OR SEVERE WEATHER FROM THIS SYSTEM. WE ARE LOOKING AT
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE. CURRENTLY, BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION IN THE GUIDANCE IS SOUTH OF OUR AREA IN THE WARM
REGION, BUT SOME MEMBERS BRING HIGHER TOTALS UP TO I-40. BY HIGHER
TOTALS, I MEAN ABOVE HALF AN INCH. PROBABILITIES FOR OVER HALF AN
INCH ARE CURRENTLY AT 20 - 40%, WITH HIGHER PROBABILITIES BEING
AROUND THE AL STATE LINE. THERE ARE MEDIUM TO HIGH PROBABILITIES (40-
70%) FOR MEETING OR EXCEEDING 0.25" BY SATURDAY MORNING. WE'LL HAVE
TO MONITOR THE INSTABILITY IN THE GUIDANCE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM, AS
MORE INSTABILITY COULD MEAN A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS, AND
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE. BUT FOR NOW,
IT'S TOO LOW TO SAY WE'D GET MORE THAN A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER
SOUTH OF I-40.
TEMPERATURES WILL BRIEFLY FALL SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY THANKS TO
THE WEAK COLD FRONT. HOWEVER, THEY WILL BOUNCE RIGHT BACK INTO THE
WORK WEEK, AND CONTINUE TO LINGER AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF THE YEAR (WHICH IS AROUND 50 DEGREES HERE AT NASHVILLE
INTERNATIONAL).
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1108 AM CST WED DEC 31 2025
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH QUIET WEATHER. PASSING
HIGH CLOUDS INTO THE EVENING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR FEW CLOUDS 030-050 AFTER 11Z MAINLY FOR
NORTHERN AREAS AND OVER THE PLATEAU. SOUTHERLY WINDS UP TO 8
KNOTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
OVERNIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 50 33 54 37 / 0 0 0 0
CLARKSVILLE 48 31 50 33 / 0 0 0 0
CROSSVILLE 43 27 49 32 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBIA 50 31 56 36 / 0 0 0 0
COOKEVILLE 45 28 49 33 / 0 0 0 0
JAMESTOWN 43 27 47 31 / 0 0 0 0
LAWRENCEBURG 51 30 55 35 / 0 0 0 0
MURFREESBORO 50 29 54 35 / 0 0 0 0
WAVERLY 48 31 52 36 / 0 0 0 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...HOLLEY
LONG TERM....HOLLEY
AVIATION.....MUELLER
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