548
FXUS64 KOHX 151737
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1137 AM CST SUN FEB 15 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1130 AM CST SUN FEB 15 2026
- RAIN ENDING LATE TODAY WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND FOG OVERNIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING.
- WARM SPRING-LIKE TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK.
- DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, THEN LOW TO MEDIUM RAIN CHANCES LATE
WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1100 AM CST SUN FEB 15 2026
AT MID MORNING, THE SURFACE MAP SHOWED LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL
MS. RADAR SHOWED AN ARC OF MOSTLY MODERATE RAIN FROM GEORGIA, THE
CAROLINAS, AND EAST TN, BACK ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF MIDDLE TN,
THEN CURLING SOUTHWEST TO THE LOW CENTER. LOCALLY, THIS PATTERN
HAS PROVIDED THE GREATEST RAINFALL TOTALS ALONG THE I-40 CORRIDOR
WITH MANY AREAS RECEIVING 0.75-1.25" SO FAR. LOWER AMOUNTS HAVE
BEEN RECEIVED NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE I-40 CORRIDOR. SOME OF OUR
FAR SOUTHERN AREAS HAVE RECEIVED ONLY ABOUT 0.25" SO FAR.
THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL MOVE TO GEORGIA BY THE END OF THE
DAY, THEN OFF THE EAST COAST BY MONDAY MORNING. AS IT MOVES EAST,
THE MAIN AXIS OF RAIN WILL PIVOT ACROSS THE AREA THEN TAPER OFF.
THIS MEANS SOME ADDITIONAL MODERATE RAINFALL FOR ALL AREAS INTO
THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOST ACCUMULATING RAIN ENDING BY DARK. AREAS
OF DRIZZLE WILL STICK AROUND INTO THE NIGHT ALONG WITH AREAS OF
FOG. FOR THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE, THE DRIZZLE SHOULD BE MOSTLY
DONE, BUT RUSH HOUR COULD BE QUITE FOGGY WITH MOIST NEAR-SURFACE
CONDITIONS AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE AREA.
DAYTIME MONDAY WILL BRING A SUDDEN BURST OF EARLY SPRING-LIKE
WEATHER. AROUND MID MORNING, LINGERING FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL
BREAK AND SUNSHINE WILL BRING A BEAUTIFUL DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW TO MID 60S.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1100 AM CST SUN FEB 15 2026
THIS WEEK WILL FEEL LIKE SPRING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD
OVER THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
EXPANDS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES.
DAYTIME HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 60S AND LOWER 70S WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S. THAT IS 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
AND OUR FORECAST LOWS ARE NEAR OUR NORMAL HIGHS FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR! WE MAY SEE NEW RECORD HIGH WEDNESDAY AND/OR THURSDAY WITH
TEMPS POSSIBLY REACHING INTO THE UPPER 70S.
HEADING INTO LATE WEEK, MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME DISTURBANCES
COMING OUR WAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS THUNDERSTORMS.
DETAILS ARE MURKY AT THIS POINT, INCLUDING TIMING, RAINFALL
AMOUNTS, AND THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY FOR POTENTIAL STORMS. WE
WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON IT THROUGH THE WEEK. OTHERWISE, IT
LOOKS LIKE MILD TO WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1130 AM CST SUN FEB 15 2026
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS NOW DIRECTLY SOUTH OF MIDDLE TN AND IS
MOVING EAST, WINDS ARE NOW MORE N AT 5-10 KTS. RAIN ACTIVITY WITH
THIS SYSTEM HAS DECREASED IN INTENSITY ACROSS MOST TERMINALS BUT
IFR/LIFR CIGS ARE IN PLACE ALONG WITH RESIDUAL -RA OR -DZ.
EXPECTING THIS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WITH A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN CIGS. BNA, MQY, AND CKV ARE FORECAST TO
IMPROVE TO MVFR CIGS ~00Z, LIKELY REMAINING THERE OVERNIGHT. ANY
CLEARING IN THESE CLOUDS COULD FAVOR PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT AS
WELL, MAINLY IN THE 09-14Z TIMEFRAME (ADDED TO TAFS). SRB AND CSV
LIKELY REMAIN IN IFR/LIFR CATS OVERNIGHT BEFORE IMPROVING MID
TOMORROW MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN THE AREA TOMORROW BRINGING VFR
CONDITIONS BACK TO MIDDLE TN WITH LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 57 41 64 44 / 100 10 0 0
CLARKSVILLE 56 39 64 42 / 100 0 0 0
CROSSVILLE 51 37 62 42 / 100 10 0 0
COLUMBIA 56 40 65 43 / 100 10 0 0
COOKEVILLE 53 39 63 43 / 100 10 0 0
JAMESTOWN 51 37 62 42 / 100 10 0 0
LAWRENCEBURG 56 41 64 43 / 100 10 0 0
MURFREESBORO 56 41 65 44 / 100 10 0 0
WAVERLY 54 39 65 44 / 100 0 0 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION.....SIZEMORE
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