479
FXUS64 KOHX 271756
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1256 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1243 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2026
- DANGEROUS HEAT THROUGH TUESDAY WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 105 TO
110+ DEGREES MOST AREAS WEST OF THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU.
- THERE IS A LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING MAY
OCCUR AT TIMES.
- AFTER TUESDAY, NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH MORE TOLERABLE
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2026
THE MAIN CONCERNS CONTINUE TO BE HEAT AND STORM POTENTIAL.
REGARDING HEAT, SKIES HAVE BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY IN THE WAKE OF
OVERNIGHT SHOWERS AND STORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE
UPPER 80S TO MID 90S THIS AFTERNOON WITH HX VALUES WELL INTO THE
TRIPLE DIGITS. AN EXTREME HEAT WARNING REMAINS IN PLACE FOR OUR
FAR WESTERN COUNTIES WITH A HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE REMAINING
COUNTIES WEST OF THE PLATEAU. TUESDAY WILL BE THE HOTTEST DAY AS
THE HOT RIDGE FROM OUT WEST BULGES EASTWARD AND WE GET SOME PRE-
FRONTAL COMPRESSIONAL WARMING. ACTUAL TEMPS MAY TOUCH TRIPLE
DIGITS FOR SOME SITES WITH HX VALUES TOPPING 110 FOR MANY AREAS.
WE ARE LEAVING THE HEADLINES THE SAME FOR TOMORROW, BUT SOME OF
THE ADVISORY AREAS MAY REACH INTO EXTREME CRITERIA FOR A COUPLE
OF HOURS IN THE AFTERNOON.
REGARDING STORMS, THE ATMOSPHERE WAS PRETTY WELL WORKED OVER LAST
NIGHT, BUT THERE WILL CERTAINLY BE RECOVERY THIS AFTERNOON. THE
QUESTION IS FORCING. NO MAJOR FORCING IS EVIDENT FOR THIS
AFTERNOON, BUT SOME ISOLATED STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH
POSSIBLE LINGERING LOW-LEVEL BOUNDARIES. A BETTER CHANCE FOR
STORMS WILL COME IN TONIGHT AS DEVELOPING STORMS ACROSS THE
MIDWEST RACE DOWN OUR WAY IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY HOW MANY STORMS WILL MAKE IT THIS
FAR SOUTH ALONG WITH THE TIMING IF THEY DO. WE HAVE MAINTAINED LOW
TO MEDIUM POPS FOR TONIGHT, SIMILAR TO RECENT HRRR SOLUTIONS.
PLEASE NOTE, ANY STORMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT STILL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL WITH
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.
SCATTERED STORM POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
EVENING AS HEAT AND HUMIDITY PEAKS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONTAL ZONE.
THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AND BETTER DYNAMICS WILL BE MOVING OFF TO THE
EAST THROUGH THE DAY, BUT LOW LEVEL FORCING SHOULD BE STRONG
ENOUGH ALONG THE FRONT TO INITIATE AT LEAST SCATTERED STORMS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS USUAL, GUSTY WIND AND HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WILL BE A CONCERN.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2026
TUESDAY EVENING'S FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL USHER IN DRIER AND LESS
HUMID AIR, AND WE WILL DEFINITELY FEEL IT ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE 80S AND DEW POINTS DROPPING THROUGH THE 60S. THE REASONABLE
TEMPS AND HUMIDITY ALONG WITH DRY CONDITIONS WILL STAY WITH US
THROUGH FRIDAY.
LOOKING AHEAD TO THE WEEKEND, IT LOOKS LIKE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
WILL DEVELOP WITH A MEDIUM CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2026
THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON WILL FEATURE SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS AND
DIURNAL CU WITH VARIABLE LIGHT WINDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING MAINLY EAST OF I-65, SO PROB30 GROUPS HAVE BEEN
ADDED TO CSV AND SRB WITH THIS TAF CYCLE. LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS IN THE MORNING WILL VEER TO THE NORTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON
AND GUST TO 15-20 KT AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 78 96 71 89 / 30 20 30 0
CLARKSVILLE 78 95 68 88 / 30 20 20 0
CROSSVILLE 71 89 65 83 / 40 40 30 0
COLUMBIA 75 97 70 89 / 20 20 30 0
COOKEVILLE 73 91 67 84 / 40 40 30 0
JAMESTOWN 72 89 65 83 / 50 50 30 0
LAWRENCEBURG 75 95 70 87 / 10 20 40 0
MURFREESBORO 76 97 70 89 / 20 30 40 0
WAVERLY 76 95 70 88 / 20 20 30 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR TNZ005-006-
023>025-056>058-093-094.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR TNZ007>009-026>030-
059>062-075-095.
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION.....CAHILL
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