716
FXUS64 KOHX 101700
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1100 AM CST TUE FEB 10 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1100 AM CST TUE FEB 10 2026
- HIGH CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN TONIGHT. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
EXPECTED TO BE UNDER 0.5".
- HIGH RAIN CHANCES THIS WEEKEND WITH HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1100 AM CST TUE FEB 10 2026
SOME HIGHER CLOUDS OUT THERE RIGHT NOW ON SATELLITE, WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING NICELY. CURRENTLY, MOST SITES ACROSS MIDDLE
TENNESSEE ARE IN THE 60S, WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 70S.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL QUITE ABRUPTLY CHANGE TO NEAR NORMAL
AS A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH MIDDLE TENNESSEE TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW. LIGHT RAIN IS ALSO EXPECTED WITH THIS FROPA, WITH
LOCATIONS AROUND MIDDLE TENNESSEE EXPECTED TO PICK UP A QUARTER OF
AN INCH TO HALF AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
BEHIND THE FRONT, DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL SETTLE INTO THE AREA FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1100 AM CST TUE FEB 10 2026
THE FORECAST REMAINS ACTIVE INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE
POSSIBLY GIVING US SOME MORE PRECIPITATION INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
CURRENT GUIDANCE HAS PUSHED THE LIGHT RAIN WEST OF THE TENNESSEE
RIVER, SO IT APPEARS AS THOUGH IF ANYONE IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE SEES
RAIN OVERNIGHT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, IT WOULD BE THE ROW OF COUNTIES
FROM STEWART DOWN TO WAYNE. ANY ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE LIGHT WITH
THIS SYSTEM.
THE BIGGER IMPACT COMES EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, AS A DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHES EAST FROM THE GREAT PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM LOOK
TO DUMP A DECENT AMOUNT OF RAINFALL ON MIDDLE TENNESSEE, WITH SOME
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL. OVERALL QPF IS CURRENTLY AROUND 2
INCHES, BUT ANYTIME THERE'S THUNDERSTORMS, WE COULD SEE LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THESE AFFECTED AREAS. MODEL GUIDANCE RANGES FROM
HALF AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION TO 2.5" IN TOTALS, SO STILL SEEING A
LOT OF DISAGREEMENT TO HAVE ANY CERTAINTY IN OUR QPF AMOUNTS AT THIS
RANGE. THE GOOD NEWS IS: SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS UNLIKELY WITH THIS
SYSTEM. IN ADDITION, SOME HYDROLOGICAL ISSUES APPEAR POSSIBLE.
NOTHING MAJOR, MORE LIKE MINOR RISES ON CREEKS AND SOME ROAD PONDING.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE 50S AND 60S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS, WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 30S AND 40S.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 531 AM CST TUE FEB 10 2026
VFR CONDITIONS DETERIORATE AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING AS LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH MIDDLE TN. CIGS LOWER FROM WEST TO EAST FROM
VFR TO MVFR. IFR CIGS DEVELOP ACROSS THE PLATEAU TONIGHT, AROUND
06Z, BUT RECOVER BACK TO VFR THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. LESS
CONFIDENT ON VIS REDUCTION AS RAIN MOVES THROUGH. LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS LOOK MOST FAVORABLE, BUT THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR SOME
HEAVIER RAIN RATES AT TIMES WHICH WOULD CAUSE A SOME BRIEF PERIODS
OF REDUCED VIS BETWEEN 03-09Z TONIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 74 42 54 32 / 10 100 10 0
CLARKSVILLE 72 38 51 30 / 10 90 0 0
CROSSVILLE 69 41 52 27 / 0 100 20 0
COLUMBIA 74 43 56 30 / 10 100 20 0
COOKEVILLE 70 40 51 28 / 0 100 10 0
JAMESTOWN 69 37 49 25 / 0 100 10 0
LAWRENCEBURG 72 44 56 30 / 10 100 30 0
MURFREESBORO 74 43 54 30 / 10 100 20 0
WAVERLY 72 40 53 31 / 10 90 10 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...HOLLEY
LONG TERM....HOLLEY
AVIATION.....CRAVENS
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