997
FXUS64 KOHX 041142
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
642 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 642 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2026
- MAJOR TO EXTREME HEAT RISK THROUGH SATURDAY WITH HEAT INDEX
VALUES UP TO 109 DEGREES. A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
ALL OF MIDDLE TN THROUGH 8 PM SATURDAY.
- HEAT RISK LESSENS EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT TEMPERATURES REMAIN
ABOVE-NORMAL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
- LOW CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH NEXT
WEEK. STRONGEST STORMS WILL POSE A THREAT FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS
AND HEAVY RAINFALL.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1030 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2026
WE HAVE ANOTHER WARM BUT CALM NIGHT AHEAD WITH LOWS IN THE 70S
AMIDST THE PERSISTING RIDGE AND ONGOING OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN.
WE'LL LIKELY SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES MAKING ANOTHER RUN FOR 100
DEGREES IN SOME SPOTS ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE FRIDAY AFTERNOON
WITH DEWPOINTS UPPER 60S TO MID 70S CAUSING HEAT INDEX VALUES UP
TO 109 DEGREES. THE MAJOR TO EXTREME HEAT RISK LEVELS
UNFORTUNATELY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AS A RESULT. FOR
FRIDAY AFTERNOON, ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST
WITH PWS RUNNING ~1.9" AND MLCAPE ~2,000 J/KG. WITH INVERTED-V
SOUNDINGS AND VERY HIGH VALUES OF DCAPE (1,300-1,600 J/KG), PRETTY
MUCH ANY STORM PRODUCING LIGHTNING WILL POSE A THREAT FOR BRIEF
30-40 MPH WIND GUSTS, WITH SOME STRONG GUSTS POSSIBLE.
FOR SATURDAY WE'LL SEE A SLIGHT TRANSITION IN FLOW ALOFT AS THE
RIDGE MERCIFULLY BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN AND RETROGRADE WESTWARD.
THIS WILL OPEN THE DOOR FOR MORE ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
MOVING OUT OF KENTUCKY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF A
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE. WITH A SMALL UPTICK IN MID-LEVEL FLOW,
MULTICELL CLUSTERS ARE POSSIBLE AND WOULD LIKELY FORM AND MERGE
COLD POOLS/OUTFLOWS. THESE STORMS WILL POSE A LITTLE MORE WIND
THREAT WITH ISOLATED SEVERE GUSTS POSSIBLE.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1030 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2026
DEEP-LAYER RIDGING IS FORECAST TO POSITION CLOSER TO THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES ON SUNDAY AND WE'LL BE MORE IN A NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW HERE
IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE. THIS PATTERN WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK BRINGING SOME RELIEF FROM MAJOR TO EXTREME HEAT RISK.
HOWEVER, THE OVERALL OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS THE CONUS AND THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO MIGRATE BACK TO THE
EAST MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL FAVOR ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH
VERY LIMITED DIURNAL RAIN CHANCES MOST DAYS NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 642 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2026
VFR TAF CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE TAF PERIOD.
WITH THE HIGH DIRECTLY ABOVE US, NOT EXPECTING A PREVAILING WIND
DIRECTION FOR FRIDAY. WINDS SHOULD STAY VRB AND UNDER 5 KNOTS.
VERY LOW CHANCE OF A POP UP SHRA OR TSRA FRIDAY AROUND 18Z, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT TOO HIGH SO DID NOT INCLUDE THIS TAF ISSUANCE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 98 77 97 74 / 20 0 10 10
CLARKSVILLE 98 75 97 72 / 20 0 10 10
CROSSVILLE 93 71 91 67 / 20 0 20 10
COLUMBIA 99 74 99 72 / 20 0 20 10
COOKEVILLE 95 73 94 70 / 20 0 20 10
JAMESTOWN 93 72 90 70 / 10 10 20 20
LAWRENCEBURG 97 73 97 71 / 20 0 20 10
MURFREESBORO 100 75 99 72 / 20 0 20 10
WAVERLY 98 76 97 73 / 10 0 10 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR TNZ005>011-023>034-
056>066-075-077>080-093>095.
SHORT TERM...SIZEMORE
LONG TERM....SIZEMORE
AVIATION.....HOLLEY
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page