722
FXUS64 KOHX 281734
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1234 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1228 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2026
- EXPECT DANGEROUS HEAT THROUGH TODAY WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES OF
105 TO 110+ DEGREES MOST AREAS WEST OF THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU.
- THERE IS A LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY, MAINLY
ALONG AND NEAR THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU.
- AFTER TODAY, NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH MORE TOLERABLE
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 943 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2026
IT WILL BE A VERY HOT DAY TODAY WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES RISING
WELL INTO THE TRIPLE DIGITS, SO PLEASE MAKE SURE YOU ARE TAKING
PRECAUTIONS IF YOU PLAN TO SPEND AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME
OUTDOORS. AFTER TODAY, THE RISK OF EXCESSIVE HEAT ACROSS MIDDLE
TENNESSEE IS, THANKFULLY, GONE FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM OUR NORTH TODAY, SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR AREA,
ESPECIALLY NEAR THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU. WHILE THE RISK OF SEVERE
STORMS IS LOW TODAY, IT IS NOT ZERO. WITH THE COLD FRONT
ENCOUNTERING OUR VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS, ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM
ALONG THE BOUNDARY MAY BRING HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ALONG
WITH THEM. FORTUNATELY, ONCE THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH OR AREA
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, WE WILL BE TREATED TO A DROP IN BOTH
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS. IT WILL STILL BE HOT AND HUMID OUTSIDE
TOMORROW WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S AND DEW POINTS IN
THE UPPER 60S, BUT ANY OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES SHOULD BE MORE
TOLERABLE THAN THEY HAVE BEEN THE PAST FEW DAYS.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 943 AM CDT TUE JUL 28
2026
THE REAL RELIEF COMES ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS TEMPERATURES WILL
BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE LOW TO
MID 60S ACROSS THE AREA. CONDITIONS LOOK TO REMAIN DRY ON BOTH
DAYS. UNFORTUNATELY, BEGINNING ON FRIDAY NIGHT, RAIN AND STORM
CHANCES WILL RETURN TO MIDDLE TENNESSEE AS A VERY STRONG, AT LEAST
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WORKS ITS WAY OUT OF
THE MIDWEST AND RIGHT OVER OUR AREA. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING WITH
IT A RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA. THE WPC HAS
ALREADY OUTLINED MIDDLE TENNESSEE WITH A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL ON SATURDAY. AS FOR THE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS, THERE IS
NOT A STRONG SIGNAL AT THIS TIME, THOUGH IT IS WORTH WATCHING FOR
IN FUTURE UPDATES. RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES ARE LIKELY TO
STICK AROUND FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2026
A SURFACE BOUNDARY IS BECOMING EVIDENT ON KOHX RADAR ABOUT TO SINK
SOUTH THROUGH THE AIRSPACE. A FEW SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY OFF TO THE EAST AND WILL MOST LIKELY ONLY IMPACT SRB
AND CSV THIS AFTERNOON, IF THAT. AS SUCH, CARRIED PROB30S FOR THE
PLATEAU AND VCSH FOR THE OTHER SITES JUST TO NOTE THE POTENTIAL
FOR NEARBY SHOWERS DURING FROPA. VFR CONDITIONS AND GUSTY
NORTHWEST/WEST WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN STORY TODAY, GOING LIGHT AND
SHIFTING MORE NORTHERLY OVERNIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 73 90 65 87 / 20 10 0 0
CLARKSVILLE 71 89 65 87 / 20 10 0 0
CROSSVILLE 66 84 58 82 / 40 10 0 0
COLUMBIA 73 90 66 87 / 30 10 0 0
COOKEVILLE 68 85 61 82 / 40 10 0 0
JAMESTOWN 66 83 59 82 / 30 10 0 0
LAWRENCEBURG 72 89 65 86 / 30 10 0 0
MURFREESBORO 72 90 65 87 / 30 10 0 0
WAVERLY 72 90 66 87 / 20 10 0 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TNZ005-006-
023>025-056>058-093-094.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TNZ007>011-026>034-
059>066-075-077>080-095.
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION.....DIRKES
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