822
FXUS64 KOHX 262349
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
649 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2026
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 628 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2026
- AREAS OF PATCHY DENSE FOG LIKELY OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY OVER
WESTERN MIDDLE TN.
- LOW TO MEDIUM THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.
- SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE MID AND UPPER-90S
NEXT WEEK WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 628 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2026
WE ARE SANDWICHED BETWEEN A DEPARTING MCS AND A CLUSTER OF A MORE
UNORGANIZED STORM SYSTEM TO OUR WEST CURRENTLY FIRING OFF IN
ARKANSAS. THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SLOW-MOVING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT CONTINUES A SLOW SAG SOUTH. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WITH
THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO STAY TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT BASED ON CURRENT
RADAR TRENDS, BRINGING ONLY ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER TO THE AREA.
THERE IS AN IMPRESSIVE MID-LEVEL CLOUD SHIELD NOTED ON INFRARED
SATELLITE THAT SHOWS INCREASING CLOUD COVER ALREADY OCCURING OVER
OUR WESTERN COUNTIES. OTHERWISE, OVERNIGHT LOOKS FOGGY, AND IN
SOME AREAS DENSE. THE HREF IS GIVING A 30-50% PROBABILITY OF
VISIBILITY DROPPING BELOW ONE-HALF MILE OVER WESTERN MIDDLE TN AND
PORTIONS OF THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU. HOW DENSE FOG GETS WILL
DEPEND ON HOW MUCH CLOUDS CLEAR OUT OF HERE OVERNIGHT. BEYOND
THAT, THURSDAY WILL FEATURE HOT CONDITIONS WITH ANOTHER LOW TO
MEDIUM CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON STORMS, ESPECIALLY OVER THE PLATEAU AS
A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1048 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2026
SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS WITH A TROUGH LOCATED NEAR THE GREAT LAKES AREA.
NORTHWEST FLOW IS SET UP OVER MIDDLE TN BETWEEN THESE FEATURES WITH
AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE. THIS HAS DEVELOPED A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS
THAT ARE CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH WEST TN. SHORT-TERM
GUIDANCE IS STRUGGLING ON HOW TO EVOLVE THIS CLUSTER THROUGH THE
LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON. CURRENT MESOANALYSIS SHOWS CAPE VALUES
AROUND 1000 J/KG NEAR THE TN RIVER WITH STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES. SHEAR VALUES ARE POOR THOUGH WHICH WOULD INDICATE THAT THIS
CLUSTER SHOULD BECOME OUTFLOW DOMINANT AND WEAKEN, NOT POSING A
SEVERE THREAT. CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON NOW WITH THIS LINE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. LOW
TO MEDIUM RAIN CHANCES STILL PERSIST IN THE FORECAST THOUGH,
MAINLY FOR SOUTHWEST MIDDLE TN. WITH ANY ACTIVITY THAT DOES
DEVELOP, SHEAR CONTINUES TO BE THE LIMITING FACTOR. CAN'T RULE OUT
ANY STRONG TO POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WINDS THROUGH THIS EVENING,
BUT WITH WEAK SHEAR, ANY STRONGER STORMS ARE LIKELY SHORT-LIVED
AND NOT ORGANIZED. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AND THE SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT LOOKS TO DIMINISH BETWEEN 8-10PM.
THE AFOREMENTIONED GREAT LAKES TROUGH THEN ALLOWS FOR A WEAK COLD
FRONT TO PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN PRIMARILY DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STILL CAN'T RULE OUT A STRONGER STORM
THAT MANAGES TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS, BUT STILL WITH WEAK SHEAR AND
WEAK FORCING WITH THE FRONT, THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS LOW.
LOOK FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES EACH AFTERNOON TO BE IN THE UPPER-80S TO
LOW-90S - AROUND NORMAL FOR LATE AUGUST.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1048 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2026
VERY LOW CHANCE FOR LINGERING RAIN ACROSS THE PLATEAU FRIDAY, BUT
OTHERWISE IT'LL BE A MOSTLY DRY DAY WITH STILL SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES SLOWLY CREEP UP THIS WEEKEND AS THE
RIDGE BUILDS TOWARDS THE EAST. STILL, IT SHOULD BE A NICE WEEKEND
WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW-90S WEST OF THE PLATEAU AND DRY
CONDITIONS. THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS MORE OVERHEAD NEXT WEEK,
AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL MAKE THEIR RETURN IN TIME FOR
SEPTEMBER. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE MID AND
UPPER-90S. LOW CHANCE FOR AN AFTERNOON POP-UP STORM, BUT OVERALL
IT LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 620 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST. A LARGE MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECK IS PUSHING
INTO WESTERN MIDDLE TN NOW IN ASSOCIATION WITH A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS.
A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH FOG POTENTIAL HEADING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. DENSE FOG LOOKS MOST LIKELY AT CKV WHERE THERE MAY BE MORE
TIME FOR CLOUDS TO CLEAR OUT. SHOULD CLOUDS CLEAR QUICKER THAN
CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS, TERMINALS WEST OF CKV COULD BE IMPACTED
BY DENSE FOG. HAVE KEPT MAINLY MVFR TO IFR IN AT MOST SITES,
INCLUDING BNA. LOW CONFIDENCE STORM FORECAST TOMORROW, MAINLY FOR
CSV AND SRB. PROB30 GROUPS HAVE BEEN INCLUDED DURING THE
AFTERNOON AT THESE SITES. STORM/SHOWER CHANCES ARE CURRENTLY LESS
THAN 30% AT BNA, MQY, AND CKV THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 70 92 68 90 / 20 40 10 0
CLARKSVILLE 69 91 64 89 / 20 10 0 0
CROSSVILLE 65 86 63 84 / 0 40 20 10
COLUMBIA 70 93 67 92 / 20 20 10 0
COOKEVILLE 67 87 64 86 / 10 50 20 0
JAMESTOWN 66 86 64 85 / 0 40 20 0
LAWRENCEBURG 69 91 66 90 / 10 30 10 0
MURFREESBORO 69 94 67 92 / 10 40 10 0
WAVERLY 70 91 65 89 / 10 10 0 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE.......BAGGETT
SHORT TERM...CLEMENTS
LONG TERM....CLEMENTS
AVIATION.....BAGGETT
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