375
FXUS64 KOHX 161117
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
517 AM CST MON FEB 16 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 510 AM CST MON FEB 16 2026
- AREAS OF FOG MONDAY MORNING.
- WARM SPRING-LIKE TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK.
- DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, THEN LOW TO MEDIUM RAIN CHANCES LATE
WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 935 PM CST SUN FEB 15 2026
SINCE THE RAIN HAS ENDED, OUR ATTENTION HAS TURNED TO THE POTENTIAL
FOR FOG OVERNIGHT. SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE IS SHOWING POTENTIAL FOR
PATCHY FOG HEADING INTO MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE TIME DUE TO MOIST AIR
AROUND THE SURFACE FROM THE RAIN. MAKE SURE YOU LEAVE EXTRA TIME ON
YOUR COMMUTE TOMORROW AND IF YOU RUN INTO FOG, USE YOUR LOW BEAMS
AND SLOW DOWN.
AFTER THE FOG LIFTS AND CLOUDS CLEAR, MONDAY WILL BE SPRING-LIKE,
WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S ACROSS THE AREA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SET IN AND CONTINUE THESE SPRING-LIKE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE START
OF THE WORK WEEK, AS WELL AS SOME CALMER WEATHER.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 935 PM CST SUN FEB 15 2026
WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE HIGH, OUR TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH
RECORD BREAKING. MID-WEEK, WE WILL APPROACH HIGHS IN THE 60S AS WARM
AS THE MID TO UPPER 70S, WITH OUR LOW TEMPERATURES BEING CLOSER TO
OUR AVERAGE HIGHS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
HEADING INTO LATE WEEK, GUIDANCE IS BRINGING IN ANOTHER SYSTEM
THURSDAY. THERE'S A FAIR AMOUNT OF VARIABILITY IN THE TIMING GIVEN
IT IS SO FAR AWAY TEMPORALLY RIGHT NOW, BUT IT IS SOMETIME BETWEEN
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. CONFIDENCE IN MESSAGING ANYTHING IN PARTICULAR
WITH THIS SYSTEM IS LOW AS WELL, WITH TOO MUCH VARIABILITY GOING ON
IN THE GUIDANCE. WE'LL KEEP AN EYE ON IT AS WE GET INTO THE WORK
WEEK, AS THERE COULD BE SOME THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 510 AM CST MON FEB 16 2026
MUCH OF THE AREA IS UNDER MVFR CIGS, IFR FOR KCSV. THESE LOW
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE THIS MORNING AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED BY 14-15Z. KCKV CLEARED OUT LAST NIGHT AND LIFR DENSE
FOG HAS DEVELOPED. THIS FOG WILL LIFT BY 15Z BUT MAY LINGER
THROUGH 17Z AS A LOW STRATUS BEFORE VFR CONDITIONS RETURN. LIFT
NORTHERLY WINDS UNDER 5 KNOTS WILL SHIFT SOUTHERLY UNDER 5 KNOTS
THIS AFTERNOON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 66 43 70 57 / 0 0 0 0
CLARKSVILLE 65 42 69 57 / 0 0 0 0
CROSSVILLE 62 41 62 52 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBIA 65 42 67 56 / 0 0 0 0
COOKEVILLE 63 43 65 54 / 0 0 0 0
JAMESTOWN 62 41 64 53 / 0 0 0 0
LAWRENCEBURG 64 43 67 56 / 0 0 0 0
MURFREESBORO 64 43 68 57 / 0 0 0 0
WAVERLY 64 43 66 56 / 0 0 0 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR TNZ005>007-
023>026.
SHORT TERM...HOLLEY
LONG TERM....HOLLEY
AVIATION.....MUELLER
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