287
FXUS64 KOHX 180413
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1013 PM CST WED DEC 17 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1008 PM CST WED DEC 17 2025
- HIGH RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING. CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ARE VERY LOW.
- WARM AND BREEZY CONDITIONS THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH AT TIMES.
- ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED THROUGH THE CHRISTMAS
HOLIDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1008 PM CST WED DEC 17 2025
AS A SHORTWAVE EXITS TO THE EAST, A STRONGER UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS
TAKING SHAPE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO
MAKE ITS WAY EAST THROUGH THURSDAY AND WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR HIGH
RAIN CHANCES ACROSS MIDDLE TN. AS THIS SYSTEM AND ITS COLD FRONT
APPROACHES, SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM MOISTURE INTO
THE AREA, RESULTING IN PWATS INCREASING TO AROUND ONE INCH (NEAR THE
90TH PERCENTILE FOR MID-DECEMBER). THIS MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR RAIN SHOWERS TO DEVELOP BY LATE
MORNING, BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES, AND THEN TAPER OFF LATE EVENING BEHIND THE FRONT.
DESPITE AN IMPRESSIVE JET WITH 500MB WINDS NEAR 80 KNOTS AND 50-60
KNOTS AT 850MB, SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED. THIS IS STILL DUE
TO VERY LIMITED INSTABILITY WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING SBCAPE
LESS THAN 100 J/KG. IT'LL STILL BE WINDY THOUGH WITH A TIGHT SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT SETTING UP AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO GUST 25-35 MPH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GUSTS
NEAR 40 MPH AREN'T OUT OF THE QUESTION, BUT THAT PROBABILITY IS LOW
AT 20-30% SO DON'T ANTICIPATE A WIND ADVISORY BEING ISSUED AT THIS
TIME.
BEHIND THE FRONT, TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER ON FRIDAY WITH
FORECAST HIGHS IN THE 40S - ABOUT 15 DEGREES COOLER COMPARED TO
THURSDAY. OVERALL, IT'LL BE A NICE DAY THOUGH WITH DRY AND SUNNY
CONDITIONS THANKS TO WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1008 PM CST WED DEC 17 2025
TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY REBOUND AS WE START THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS
ON SATURDAY RETURNING TO THE MID AND UPPER-50S. THIS WARMING TREND
CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK, RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AS WE
APPROACH CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT
NOTHING LOOK HAZARDOUS AS WE GO INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEK. MODELS ARE
DEPICTING A COUPLE SHORTWAVES THAT ARE ENOUGH TO KEEP LOW RAIN
CHANCES IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST - MAINLY SUNDAY AND TUESDAY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 525 PM CST WED DEC 17 2025
EXPECT VFR WX THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AND INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. TOMORROW, A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH MIDDLE
TENNESSEE FROM THE WEST AND BRING A MEDIUM TO HIGH PROBABILITY OF
SHOWERS FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, ALONG WITH
PROGRESSIVELY LOWER CEILINGS ONCE PRECIPITATION STARTS TO FALL.
THERE IS A VERY LOW PROBABILITY OF TS, SO WE'VE GONE WITH JUST
SHRA AS THE PREDOMINANT WEATHER TYPE. ALSO LOOK FOR SURFACE AND
NEAR-SURFACE WINDS TO INCREASE CONSIDERABLY IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT, SO WE'VE INCLUDED LLWS REMARKS WHERE THE CRITERIA ARE MET.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 44 62 31 45 / 10 90 90 0
CLARKSVILLE 45 61 28 42 / 10 90 60 0
CROSSVILLE 38 56 27 40 / 10 90 90 0
COLUMBIA 43 61 31 46 / 10 90 80 0
COOKEVILLE 40 58 28 40 / 10 90 100 0
JAMESTOWN 38 56 26 39 / 0 90 100 0
LAWRENCEBURG 43 60 31 46 / 10 90 80 0
MURFREESBORO 42 61 31 45 / 10 90 90 0
WAVERLY 45 59 28 42 / 10 90 60 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...CLEMENTS
LONG TERM....CLEMENTS
AVIATION.....ROSE
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