933
FXUS64 KOHX 101115
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
615 AM CDT THU SEP 10 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 611 AM CDT THU SEP 10 2026
- ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW
90S FOR MOST AREAS FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.
- A WETTER PATTERN KICKS OFF STARTING THURSDAY EVENING AND
CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- LOW CHANCE FOR GUSTY WINDS WITH ANY STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
WITH HEAVY RAIN.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1012 PM CDT WED SEP 9 2026
REMNANTS OF AN MCS ARE STILL LINGERING AROUND THE TN RIVER, BUT
EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE FALLING APART IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
ANOTHER HOT DAY IS ON TAP THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH HEAT INDICES IN
THE TRIPLE DIGITS. THIS IS DUE TO A STOUT MIDLEVEL RIDGE CENTERED
OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. THERE ARE A FEW LOCATIONS THAT MAY
TOUCH 105 HEAT INDEX IN THE AFTERNOON, BUT IT'S NOT LOOKING
WIDESPREAD ENOUGH FOR ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY.
WHAT BARELY QUALIFIES AS A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH MIDDLE TN
THURSDAY AFTERNOON, BRINGING A SWATH OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG WITH IT. THE BETTER KINEMATIC SUPPORT IS DISPLACED OFF TO
THE NORTHWEST BUT WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING A MOIST
PROFILE AND 2000+ J/KG CAPE, WOULD NOT RULE OUT A FEW STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN ABOUT 2PM AND 7PM. WILL ALSO NOTE THE STORM
MOTIONS ALONG THE EAST-WEST ORIENTED BOUNDARY MAY CREATE SOME
TRAINING STORMS AND RESULTANT LOCALIZED FLOODING ISSUES.
EXPECT THIS SAME FRONT TO STALL OUT ALONG THE I-40 CORRIDOR ON
FRIDAY, TRAPPING MIDDLE TN ON THE HOT AND MUGGY SIDE OF THE
BOUNDARY. AGAIN, TEMPERATURES REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN THE
LOW/MID 90S DESPITE 60+% POPS. AREAS THAT DO RECEIVE RAIN ON
FRIDAY SHOULD SEE SOME TEMPORARY RELIEF FROM THE HEAT, BUT THIS
ISN'T A WIDESPREAD WASHOUT BY ANY MEANS.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1012 PM CDT WED SEP 9 2026
FORECAST SURFACE ANALYSES DEPICT THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY
LIFTING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON SATURDAY, FURTHER CONTRIBUTING TO
THIS EARLY FALL HEAT WAVE. SATURDAY LOOKS LIKE THE WETTEST DAY OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD, PARTICULARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS IS
MAINLY DUE TO INFLUENCES FROM SHORTWAVE FEATURES; THERE IS VERY
LITTLE SYNOPTIC SUPPORT IN THIS PATTERN. NEVERTHELESS, WE'LL HAVE
POPS ABOVE 50% THROUGH SUNDAY, ALONG WITH GROSSLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S. UNFORTUNATELY, NO CLEAR RELIEF IS IN
SIGHT. LREF MEAN 500 MB HEIGHTS PLACE ANOTHER HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
MIDLEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AGAIN NEXT WEEK,
NEARING THE UPPER END OF CLIMATOLOGY FOR MID SEPTEMBER.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 611 AM CDT THU SEP 10 2026
WE WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS INTO THE AFTERNOON FOR ALL TERMINALS.
A BOUNDARY WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER
21Z MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-40. THE BOUNDARY WILL STALL WITH
RAIN CHANCES LINGERING INTO THE EVENING. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN
ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. SOUTHERLY WINDS UP TO 8 KNOTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 94 72 93 71 / 30 30 40 50
CLARKSVILLE 93 70 90 70 / 50 60 50 50
CROSSVILLE 87 66 88 66 / 10 10 30 30
COLUMBIA 96 70 95 70 / 10 10 30 50
COOKEVILLE 89 69 90 68 / 20 20 30 30
JAMESTOWN 87 68 87 67 / 20 30 30 30
LAWRENCEBURG 94 69 93 69 / 10 10 20 60
MURFREESBORO 96 71 96 70 / 20 10 30 60
WAVERLY 93 72 91 70 / 50 40 30 50
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...DIRKES
LONG TERM....DIRKES
AVIATION.....MUELLER
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