482
FXUS64 KOHX 231747
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1247 PM CDT WED SEP 23 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1242 PM CDT WED SEP 23 2026
- LOW CHANCE FOR STRONG STORMS TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE
CUMBERLAND PLATEAU TODAY
- ASIDE FROM ADDITIONAL LOW RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE PLATEAU
THURSDAY, COOLER AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO THE
WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1112 AM CDT WED SEP 23 2026
MIDDLE TN IS CURRENTLY SOCKED IN WITH LOW CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID-60S. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS ACROSS THE CUMBERLAND
PLATEAU WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT DUE
TO AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA. WITH EXTENSIVE
LOW-LEVEL CLOUD COVER, HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION WILL BE
INHIBITED. THERE REMAINS POTENTIAL FOR SOME STORMS TO DEVELOP
STRONG WIND GUSTS, BUT WITH THE 12Z SOUNDING SHOWING LESS
IMPRESSIVE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES, THE HAIL THREAT HAS DIMINISHED.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO THE UPPER-50S TO LOW-60S TONIGHT AND
REBOUND TO THE UPPER-70S TO LOW-80S WEST OF THE CUMBERLAND
PLATEAU TOMORROW. ACROSS THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU, ANOTHER DAY IN
THE LOW-70S WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS IS ON TAP.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1112 AM CDT WED SEP 23 2026
BY THE END OF THE WEEK, A STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD NORTH FROM
THE MS VALLEY AS A DEEP UPPER LOW REMAINS SITUATED OVER THE
NORTHEAST CONUS. THIS SETUP WILL USHER IN DRIER AIR AND SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID-70S ACROSS THE CUMBERLAND
PLATEAU TO THE LOW TO MID-80S TO THE SOUTHWEST. WE'LL WARM BACK
TO THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S BY TUESDAY WITH THE PATTERN BECOMING
MORE ACTIVE BY MID-WEEK AS THE NEXT FROPA IMPACTS THE REGION.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT WED SEP 23 2026
AREA-WIDE STRATUS REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON AND WINDS ARE LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTH (4-8 KTS).
THANKFULLY IFR CIGS/VIS CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED AND WE'RE NOW
MVFR. EXPECTING CONTINUED CIG IMPROVEMENT LATE AFTERNOON TO VFR
AND SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS THIS EVENING. SCT SHRA/ISO TS IS
POSSIBLE NEAR CSV AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.
MAIN TAF CONCERN WILL BE A PERIOD OF IFR CIGS RETURNING OVERNIGHT
INTO TOMORROW MORNING. MIST IS POSSIBLE AT BNA AND MQY, WITH FG
AT SRB AND CSV. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN THESE LOW FLIGHT CATEGORIES
IS EXPECTED MID TO LATE TOMORROW MORNING WITH LIGHT NE WINDS
TRENDING BACK TO VFR FOR THE AFTERNOON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 63 81 61 81 / 10 10 0 0
CLARKSVILLE 61 80 58 82 / 0 0 0 0
CROSSVILLE 59 72 53 73 / 50 50 10 0
COLUMBIA 61 80 59 84 / 10 10 0 0
COOKEVILLE 63 76 56 76 / 20 30 0 0
JAMESTOWN 60 72 54 72 / 40 30 0 0
LAWRENCEBURG 61 79 58 82 / 10 10 0 0
MURFREESBORO 62 80 59 83 / 10 10 10 0
WAVERLY 61 79 60 81 / 0 0 0 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...CAHILL
LONG TERM....CAHILL
AVIATION.....SIZEMORE
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