922
FXUS64 KOHX 221723
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1223 PM CDT MON JUN 22 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1223 PM CDT MON JUN 22 2026
- MEDIUM CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MONDAY. LOW
SEVERE THREAT MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, MAINLY FOR SOUTHERN
AREAS AND THE PLATEAU. STRONG WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN.
- SEASONABLY WARM AND HUMID WEATHER WITH ON AND OFF CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS AFTER MONDAY.
- WARMING TREND SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK WITH MID TO UPPER 90S.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1158 AM CDT MON JUN 22 2026
A SURFACE LOW IS SITTING OVER THE OH VALLEY WITH A COLD FRONT SET
UP TO OUR NORTH. WE ARE IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH DEW POINTS IN THE
LOW TO MID 70S. CAMS HAVE STRUGGLED WITH THIS WHOLE EVENT AND THE
LATEST 12Z RUNS HAVE SEEN LITTLE IMPROVEMENT ON THAT. THEY
CONTINUE TO BE OFF WITH THE CURRENT CONDITIONS AND AREN'T VERY
USEFUL FOR THE FORECAST. MORNING CONVECTION HAS SET UP A BOUNDARY
OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF OUR AREA AND WE WILL SEE A
MCV/STRATIFORM PRECIP PUSH OUT OF WEST TN AND MOVE OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA. THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WILL
BE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THAT BOUNDARY. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH HOW
THINGS DESTABILIZE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS MCV WILL HELP
INCREASE BULK SHEAR TO 25-35 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AND INCREASE 0-3
KM HELICITY TO 150-250 FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-40. LAPSE RATES
OVERALL AND POOR TO MARGINAL. THE MCV WILL MOVE OVER PARTS OF TN
SOUTH INTO MS AND AL. THIS WILL BE A FOCUS FOR FORCING FOR
AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION. GENERALLY THE BETTER FORCING IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH BUT IF WE DESTABILIZE ENOUGH
AHEAD OF THAT BOUNDARY WE COULD SEE SOME STRONG STORMS. STRONG
WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT BUT GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL
HELICITY CAN'T RULE OUT A TORNADO.
NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY WE WILL SEE STRATIFORM PRECIP GRADUALLY MOVE
EAST AND DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH IN FROM THE NORTH DURING THE MID-AFTERNOON AND A FEW
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF IT. THE ENVIRONMENT
WILL HAVE GOOD BULK SHEAR 25-35 KNOTS BUT WILL LACK CAPE WITH IT
LIKELY STAYING AROUND OR BELOW 500 J/KG. THIS WILL KEEP THE SEVERE
RISK VERY LOW BUT IF A STRONG STORM DOES DEVELOP GUSTY WINDS
WOULD BE THE CONCERN. MESOANALYSIS HAS PWATS AT OR ABOVE 2.0"
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. HIGH CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAIN WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS WITH A MODERATE RISK OF LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING
ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS THAT SAW HEAVY RAIN THIS MORNING.
THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE A QUICK 1.0-1.5" OF RAIN.
THE FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH AND EAST OF MIDDLE TN THIS EVENING AND
WE WILL SEE DRY CONDITIONS SET IN BY THE OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL
FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY AND THAT WILL GIVE US NORTHERLY WINDS AND
HELP TO BRING IN SLIGHTLY LOWER DEW POINTS.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1158 AM CDT MON JUN 22 2026
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE PUSHING EAST OF THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY
AND THAT WILL BE THE MAIN INFLUENCE ON OUR WEATHER. IT WILL KEEP
MUCH OF THE AREA DRY WITH HIGHS WARMING INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S. A
SHORT WAVE WILL PUSH OVER THE PLAINS AND THAT MAY BRING A FEW
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TO FAR WESTERN AREAS BUT THE CHANCES ARE
LOW. FLOW ON THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WILL TURN MORE ZONAL WITH
EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES. THIS WILL BRING PERIODS OF LOW TO MODERATE
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD
IN AND AMPLIFY SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL WARM TEMPERATURES
FROM THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S INTO THE LOW TO UPPER 90S. BY
TUESDAY AND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK THERE ARE LOW CHANCE OF 100+.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CDT MON JUN 22 2026
TAFS WILL DEGRADE OVER THE TAF PERIOD THIS EVENING, DIPPING INTO
IFR CATEGORY BY 04Z ON THE 23RD. FROM THERE, CEILINGS WILL BE SLOW
TO RISE INTO THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON, BUT WILL
CERTAINLY BE BACK IN VFR BY THE END OF NEXT TAF PERIOD. A FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL MAKE WINDS NORTHERLY, AND THEY WILL LESSEN TO 5 KNOTS
OR LESS BY THE EVENING TONIGHT, PERFECT FOR FOG FORMATION INTO THE
MORNING HOURS OF THE 23RD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 65 83 63 87 / 70 0 0 10
CLARKSVILLE 63 83 62 87 / 30 0 0 20
CROSSVILLE 63 78 56 82 / 90 10 0 0
COLUMBIA 64 83 61 86 / 80 0 0 10
COOKEVILLE 63 79 58 83 / 80 10 0 0
JAMESTOWN 61 78 56 83 / 70 10 0 0
LAWRENCEBURG 65 81 61 84 / 80 0 0 10
MURFREESBORO 65 83 61 87 / 80 0 0 10
WAVERLY 63 82 62 86 / 50 0 0 20
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...MUELLER
LONG TERM....MUELLER
AVIATION.....HOLLEY
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