903
FXUS64 KOHX 142318
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
618 PM CDT THU MAY 14 2026
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 614 PM CDT THU MAY 14 2026
- TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE LOW-90S WEST OF THE PLATEAU
SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR A STORM NORTH OF I-40 ON SATURDAY, BUT
APPRECIABLE RAIN CHANCES AREN'T EXPECTED UNTIL MID NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 614 PM CDT THU MAY 14 2026
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING AS A QUIET NIGHT IS
AHEAD. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES, TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL AGAIN,
DROPPING INTO THE 40S. WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHERLY TOMORROW,
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE MID-70S AND LOW-80S WITH
DRY CONDITIONS PERSISTING.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1130 AM CDT THU MAY 14 2026
A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS NOW MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN CONUS
WHICH IS BRINGING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR REGION. WE ARE
VERY DRY THROUGH THE TROPOSPHERE AND SUBSIDENCE IS EVIDENT ON OUR
MORNING SOUNDING. WE EXPECT LOW RHS AND SOME WIND GUSTS ALONG AND
EAST OF I-65 TODAY WHICH WILL BRING MARGINAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, VERY NICE WEATHER
OVERALL IF YOU IGNORE ONGOING DROUGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF
TO OUR EAST TOMORROW ALONG WITH A TRANSITION TO ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.
SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS SHOULD BRING AN INCREASE IN
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AND SOME RECOVERY TO HUMIDITY. HIGHS
TOMORROW WILL BE IN THE MID 70S ALONG THE PLATEAU, TO THE LOW 80S
NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1130 AM CDT THU MAY 14 2026
DEEP-LAYER RIDGING WILL BECOME MORE INFLUENTIAL IN OUR REGION AND
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THIS WEEKEND. THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND INCREASING HEIGHTS WILL LEAD TO SUMMER-LIKE
TEMPERATURES ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE, UP TO ~10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. WE APPEAR TO REMAIN FAIRLY DRY
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO THE BUILDING RIDGE, THOUGH LOW
TO MEDIUM RAIN CHANCES ARE IN THE FORECAST BY MID NEXT WEEK WITH
APPROACHING SYSTEMS & FRONTS FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL BE
CONTINGENT UPON HOW STRONG & PERSISTENT THE RIDGE TO OUR
SOUTHEAST REMAINS.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 531 PM CDT THU MAY 14 2026
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH NORTH WINDS BECOMING
SOUTH AFTER 12Z FRIDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 48 82 62 87 / 0 0 0 20
CLARKSVILLE 47 82 64 87 / 0 0 20 30
CROSSVILLE 40 76 53 81 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBIA 45 81 60 85 / 0 0 10 10
COOKEVILLE 43 77 56 83 / 0 0 0 10
JAMESTOWN 40 77 54 83 / 0 0 10 10
LAWRENCEBURG 45 79 59 83 / 0 0 0 0
MURFREESBORO 44 81 59 86 / 0 0 0 10
WAVERLY 48 83 65 87 / 0 0 10 10
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE.......CLEMENTS
SHORT TERM...SIZEMORE
LONG TERM....SIZEMORE
AVIATION.....CRAVENS
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