305
FXUS64 KOHX 121105
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
605 AM CDT FRI JUN 12 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 601 AM CDT FRI JUN 12 2026
- THERE ARE MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS FRIDAY
ALONG A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO
SEVERE DURING THE AFTERNOON, MAINLY POSING A THREAT FOR DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS.
- MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE ON
SUNDAY, WITH LOWER CHANCES EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- LOOK FOR CONTINUED WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY,
THEN BECOMING COOLER AND LESS HUMID NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1040 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2026
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE LIFTING OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES INTO
CANADA EARLY FRIDAY PUSHING A COLD FRONT SOUTH. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING ALONG THIS FRONT AND ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. THIS FRONT ALONG WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PUSH INTO OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES AFTER 4 AM.
THE FRONT AND ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO WORK SOUTH AND EAST DURING
THE MORNING BUT ACTIVITY WILL BECOME LESS WIDESPREAD BY THE TIME
IT REACHES NASHVILLE BETWEEN 7 AND 10 AM. AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES
TO LIFT THROUGH CANADA THE COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN ALONG WITH
ACTIVITY WITH THE FRONT. IT WILL HOWEVER LEAVE A BOUNDARY SET UP
OVER THE REGION. WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON WHERE THIS
BOUNDARY SETS UP AS WE WILL SEE RE-DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG IT IN THE AFTERNOON. RIGHT NOW THE BOUNDARY IS
FAVORED TO SET UP JUST TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF NASHVILLE. WE
SHOULD SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS START TO DEVELOP ALONG IT
AFTER 3 PM WITH ACTIVITY CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING.
CAPE DURING THE MORNING HOURS WILL BE AROUND 500 J/KG WITH AROUND
15 KNOTS OF BULK SHEAR. THIS WILL LIMIT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL
DURING THE MORNING BUT STILL CAN'T RULE OUT A VERY LOW CHANCE FOR
GUSTY WINDS MAINLY IN THE FAR NORTHWEST PART OF THE AREA. AS WE
HEAD INTO THE AFTERNOON CAPE WILL BUILD RISING ABOVE 1500 J/KG.
BULK SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO BE MARGINAL ALONG WITH MARGINAL LAPSE
RATES BUT GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF CAPE ALONG WITH BETTER FORCING
CAN'T RULE OUT SOME GUSTY WINDS WITH ANY STRONGER MORE ORGANIZED
STORMS. PWATS WILL REMAIN HIGH ABOVE 1.75" BRINGING HEAVY RAIN
WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS. WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS UNLIKELY BUT SOME
LOCALIZED FLOODING CAN'T BE RULED OUT AND YOU COULD SEE A QUICK
0.50-1.0" IF YOU GET CAUGHT UNDER A THUNDERSTORM. IT WILL REMAIN
HUMID WITH DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S AND AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.
THE BOUNDARY AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL CLEAR THE AREA BY 9 PM
AND WE WILL SEE DRY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE COOLER THAN THE LAST FEW NIGHTS FALLING BACK INTO THE 60S.
WITH THE RECENT RAIN AND WET CONDITIONS WE WILL ALSO SEE AREAS OF
FOG DEVELOP. A SHORT WAVE RIDGE WILL KEEP THINGS QUIET AND DRY
FOR MOST OF SATURDAY. IT WILL REMAIN WARM AND HUMID WITH HIGHS
AROUND 90 AND DEW POINTS STILL IN THE LOWER 70S.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1040 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2026
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE PLAINS INTO THE OH VALLEY
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND THAT WILL BRING THE RETURN OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ACTIVITY WILL BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH INTO
MIDDLE TN. BULK SHEAR WILL BE MARGINAL 20-25 KNOTS WITH AFTERNOON
CAPE ABOVE 1000 J/KG. LAPSE RATES LOOK QUITE POOR BUT THERE IS AT
LEAST A LOW CHANCE FOR SOME STRONGER STORMS MAINLY FOR SOUTHERN
AND EASTERN AREAS. GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE PRIMARY
THREAT. COOLER DIRER AIR WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND
WE WILL SEE A VERY PLEASANT START TO THE WEEK. HIGHS WILL DROP
BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AND DEW POINTS WILL RETREAT
BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S. MOISTURE WILL START TO BUILD BACK NORTH
WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR SOUTHEAST. WE WILL ALSO
SEE HIGHS RETURN TO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. UPPER LEVEL FLOW
IS WEAK WITH SOME SHORT WAVES PASSING TO OUR NORTH. THIS WILL
MAINLY BRING A LOW THREAT FOR DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY INTO
THE END OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 601 AM CDT FRI JUN 12 2026
A BROAD AREA OF CONVECTION IS NOW EDGING ITS WAY INTO MIDDLE
TENNESSEE FROM THE NORTHWEST, RIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT
WILL ENTER THE MID STATE LATER THIS MORNING, THEN SLOW TO CRAWL.
HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP AT KCKV TO HANDLE THE CONVECTION AT
THE OUTSET, THEN PROB30 GROUPS AT KBNA AND KMQY LATER THIS MORNING
FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF LINGERING SHOWERS. LOOK FOR STORMS TO FIRE
BACK UP LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS SURFACE HEATING AND INSTABILITY
INTERACT WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO PRODUCE MORE CONVECTION.
RADIATION FOG IS POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS DURING THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 89 68 91 74 / 60 10 20 60
CLARKSVILLE 85 63 89 72 / 40 0 20 70
CROSSVILLE 85 65 85 68 / 70 30 10 40
COLUMBIA 90 68 90 72 / 70 20 30 60
COOKEVILLE 86 66 86 69 / 70 30 0 50
JAMESTOWN 86 63 86 66 / 70 30 0 50
LAWRENCEBURG 88 68 88 71 / 80 30 30 60
MURFREESBORO 91 68 91 72 / 80 30 20 60
WAVERLY 86 66 89 71 / 50 10 40 70
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...MUELLER
LONG TERM....MUELLER
AVIATION.....ROSE
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