136
FXUS64 KOHX 111727
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1127 AM CST WED FEB 11 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1125 AM CST WED FEB 11 2026
- DRY, COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY WARMER
TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND.
- HIGH RAIN CHANCES (<90%) SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH TOTAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1-2 INCHES. FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME.
- ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FORECAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1100 AM CST WED FEB 11 2026
AFTER RECORD-BREAKING WARMTH YESTERDAY, WE'RE BACK INTO
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW HERE IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE WITH LINGERING LIGHT
RAIN AND CLOUDS NOW EXITING SOUTHERN TENNESSEE BEHIND A COLD
FRONT. WHILE COOLER, WE'LL DRY OUT TODAY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
AND A NORTHERLY BREEZE WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE OHIO
AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS FROM THE WEST. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE
20S AND 30S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA
TOMORROW WHICH WILL PROVIDE STABLE, COOL WEATHER THAT WILL
PERSIST INTO THURSDAY NIGHT, THOUGH WE'LL SEE A WARM-UP THEREAFTER
WITH THE APPROACH OF A SHORTWAVE RIDGE.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1100 AM CST WED FEB 11 2026
A SOUTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE, CURRENTLY OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST,
IS PROJECTED TO ENTER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY ON SATURDAY. SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD
NORTHWARD INTO MIDDLE TN THROUGHOUT THE DAY WHICH WILL BRING HIGHER
PW CONTENT THAT WILL SURROUND THE SURFACE LOW PASSING TO OUR SOUTH.
MEDIUM TO HIGH RAIN CHANCES REMAIN IN THE FORECAST SATURDAY MORNING
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A RESULT OF THIS MOISTURE AVAILABILITY
AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE REGION. DUE TO THE TRACK OF THE LOW
TO OUR SOUTH, INSTABILITY VALUES ARE VERY LOW TO NIL WHICH WILL
SUPPRESS THUNDERSTORMS CLOSER TO THE GULF COAST. THE LACK OF DEEP
CONVECTION THANKFULLY LIMITS OUR OVERALL FLOODING THREAT DESPITE 1-
2" OF STORM TOTAL RAINFALL ACROSS ALL RIVER BASINS. HOWEVER IT'S
LOOKED AT WE HAVE A RAINY WEEKEND AHEAD.
WHILE THERE MIGHT BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF COLD ADVECTION SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING BEHIND THE EXITING SYSTEM, GLOBAL
MODELS/ENSEMBLES FAVOR SUBSEQUENT RIDGING AND WARM ADVECTION
MONDAY AFTERNOON THAT PERSISTS INTO WEDNESDAY WHICH SUPPORTS A
PERIOD OF WARM/ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1125 AM CST WED FEB 11 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA WITH LIGHT N WINDS. WINDS
SHIFT TO THE NE TONIGHT AND REMAIN LIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 55 32 55 35 / 10 0 0 0
CLARKSVILLE 53 31 53 32 / 0 0 0 0
CROSSVILLE 52 28 49 29 / 30 0 0 0
COLUMBIA 56 31 55 35 / 40 0 0 0
COOKEVILLE 51 29 50 31 / 10 0 0 0
JAMESTOWN 49 26 48 27 / 0 0 0 0
LAWRENCEBURG 56 31 54 35 / 60 0 0 0
MURFREESBORO 55 30 54 33 / 30 0 0 0
WAVERLY 53 32 54 35 / 0 0 0 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...SIZEMORE
LONG TERM....SIZEMORE
AVIATION.....CRAVENS
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