865
FXUS64 KOHX 141733
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1233 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1230 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2026
- LOW TO MEDIUM SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEK. SOME STORMS WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL, WHICH COULD LEAD
TO MINOR LOCALIZED FLOODING OR PONDING.
- TEMPERATURES INCREASE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH HUMIDITY
LEADING TO AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES AROUND 100 DEGREES THURSDAY
ONWARD.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 951 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2026
TODAY WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO WHAT THE PAST FEW DAYS. THE SURFACE
LOW OVER AL/MS WILL MOVE WSW THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND PROVIDE
FORCING FOR A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR AREA.
THERE'S STILL AN ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH PWATS
HOVERING CLOSE TO 2 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES, SO ANY SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP TODAY WILL CARRY THE RISK OF HEAVY
RAINFALL. THE RISK FOR FLOODING IS LOW ACROSS THE AREA, THOUGH
SOME LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING OR PONDING IS POSSIBLE IN ANY AREAS
WHERE SHOWERS AND STORMS TRAIN.
LIKE YESTERDAY, CLOUD COVER AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH AFTER DARK AS DAYTIME HEATING IS
LOST, LEADING TO THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT. AS HIGH
PRESSURE STARTS TO FORM TO OUR NORTHEAST TOMORROW, SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL DECREASE, THOUGH OUR TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
SCATTERED POP-UP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE.
TEMPERATURES WILL STAY NEAR AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR TODAY
AND TOMORROW, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE AREA.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 951 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2026
AS WE MOVE INTO THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK, THINGS CONTINUE TO
LOOK FAIRLY UNSETTLED. WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTHEAST,
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S
ACROSS THE AREA AS DEW POINTS HOVER IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. GIVEN
THESE CONDITIONS, HEAT INDICES WILL BE IN THE MID 90S TO LOW 100S
AWAY FROM THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU THURSDAY - TUESDAY.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LOOK TO INCREASE AGAIN STARTING
THURSDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY AS MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SHOWN
AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES TO MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA. GIVEN THE HIGH PWAT VALUES THAT WILL BE IN PLACE,
ISOLATED INCIDENTS OF FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE. MONDAY
LOOKS MOSTLY DRY WITH LOW CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
RETURNING ON TUESDAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2026
MAINLY A PERSISTENCE FORECAST ACROSS THE AIRSPACE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL ROTATE ABOUT A SURFACE LOW
TRACKING ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST TODAY AND TOMORROW, BRINGING
INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF -SHRA ALONG WITH A CU FIELD. HAVE NOT SEEN
MUCH EVIDENCE OF THUNDER FOR TODAY BUT WILL MONITOR FOR AMENDMENTS
IF NEEDED. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 71 89 72 90 / 30 20 10 50
CLARKSVILLE 71 89 72 89 / 20 20 10 50
CROSSVILLE 66 84 67 85 / 10 20 10 60
COLUMBIA 69 87 70 88 / 20 40 10 60
COOKEVILLE 68 86 69 87 / 20 30 10 60
JAMESTOWN 66 86 68 87 / 10 10 10 40
LAWRENCEBURG 68 85 69 86 / 20 50 10 60
MURFREESBORO 70 88 71 90 / 30 30 10 50
WAVERLY 70 87 70 88 / 20 40 10 60
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...CAHILL
LONG TERM....CAHILL
AVIATION.....DIRKES
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