596
FXUS64 KOHX 190521
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1221 AM CDT TUE MAY 19 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1214 AM CDT TUE MAY 19 2026
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL COOL INTO THE LOW-80S
WEDNESDAY INTO THE END OF THE WEEK.
- THERE ARE DAILY MEDIUM TO HIGH RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND. THERE IS ONLY A LOW SEVERE WEATHER THREAT TUESDAY.
- THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE THAT RAIN AMOUNTS ARE AT LEAST 2 INCHES
BY THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1023 PM CDT MON MAY 18 2026
SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS EVENING SHOWS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
GREAT PLAINS WITH A COLD FRONT OVER THE KANSAS/NEBRASKA AREA. ON
TUESDAY, THIS TROUGH WILL EJECT INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH THE
COLD FRONT SLOWLY TRACKING SOUTH THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. AHEAD OF
THIS COLD FRONT, MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE RISE ACROSS MIDDLE TN.
THERE'S ALREADY EVIDENCE OF THIS WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S AND THE
PWAT ON THIS EVENING'S SOUNDING RISING TO 1.14 INCHES. DO EXPECT
THIS PWAT TO CONTINUE TO RISE WITH MODELS STILL SHOWING VALUES NEAR
TO ABOVE 1.5 INCHES. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT APPROACHES, A
PATTERN CHANGE IS FINALLY HERE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
MAINLY FAVOR AREAS WEST OF I-65 TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
WHILE THE SETUP ISN'T THE MOST FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER WITH
HIGHEST WIND SHEAR DISPLACED TO THE NORTH, THERE DOES REMAIN A LOW
SEVERE WEATHER RISK FOR STORMS NEAR THE FRONT. MAIN CONCERN WOULD
BE STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS, BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SHOW STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES THAT COULD RESULT IN SMALL HAIL.
THE FRONT SLOWLY SAGS SOUTH THROUGH WEDNESDAY, AND HIGH RAIN/STORM
CHANCES WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE DAY. DON'T ANTICIPATE SEVERE
WEATHER WEDNESDAY WITH THE SETUP EVEN LESS FAVORABLE WITH THE
INSTABILITY GETTING PUSHED SOUTH AHEAD OF THE FRONT. BUT IT SHOULD
BE A BENEFICIAL SETUP FOR SOME MUCH NEEDED RAIN WITH THE FRONT AND
PWATS NEAR THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO START TO COOL BEHIND THE FRONT, FROM
UPPER-80S TO LOW-90S TUESDAY INTO THE LOW-80S WEDNESDAY.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1023 PM CDT MON MAY 18 2026
THE FRONT STALLS TO OUR SOUTH THURSDAY, AND WITH A TROUGHING PATTERN
SETTING UP OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, THIS
WILL KEEP MEDIUM TO HIGH RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST. WITH THE
FRONT TO THE SOUTH THURSDAY, HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES WILL FAVOR AREAS
SOUTH OF I-40, BUT THEN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES LOOK TO BRING HIGH
RAIN CHANCES AREAWIDE FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS IS STILL
LOOKING LIKE A VERY GOOD SETUP FOR THE RAIN WE DO DESPERATELY
NEED, AND FORECAST RAIN TOTALS CONTINUE TO TREND UP. BY THE END OF
THE WEEKEND, PROBABILITY LOOKS HIGH AT 70-80% FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN
TOTALS OVER 2 INCHES. THIS PATTERN WILL ALSO KEEP TEMPERATURES
CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW-80S.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1214 AM CDT TUE MAY 19 2026
VFR WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT SOUTH WINDS. MOST SITES
WILL MAINTAIN VFR THROUGH DAYTIME TUESDAY WITH SOUTH WINDS
GUSTING 20-25 KT. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL SET OFF SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS LATE DAY FOR CKV AND PERHAPS FOR BNA/MQY. ANY
THUNDERSTORMS IMPACTING TERMINALS WILL PRODUCE BRIEF VSBY
REDUCTIONS AND LOCAL GUSTY WINDS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 91 68 83 64 / 30 60 80 50
CLARKSVILLE 90 67 80 63 / 50 70 80 50
CROSSVILLE 85 64 81 61 / 10 40 90 40
COLUMBIA 90 67 82 64 / 20 50 90 50
COOKEVILLE 87 66 82 63 / 10 40 90 50
JAMESTOWN 88 64 83 61 / 10 30 90 50
LAWRENCEBURG 87 67 82 64 / 10 40 90 60
MURFREESBORO 90 67 84 64 / 20 40 90 60
WAVERLY 91 67 81 64 / 40 60 80 50
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...CLEMENTS
LONG TERM....CLEMENTS
AVIATION.....13
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