979
FXUS64 KOHX 140530
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1230 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1220 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2026
- UNSETTLED WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND WITH MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHEST CHANCES WILL BE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, AND
AGAIN SUNDAY LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
- LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCE FOR STRONG STORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN ALONG WITH HEAVY
RAIN.
- A BREAK IN THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL START THE WORK WEEK, BUT
THE ACTIVE AND WET PATTERN WILL RETURN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEK WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1034 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2026
AS SEVERE WEATHER TAPERS OFF THIS EVENING, EXPECT RAIN TO LINGER
AROUND. LOWS TONIGHT WILL GET INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. WHILE
THERE COULD BE A BRIEF LULL IN ACTIVITY SUNDAY MORNING, SOME CAMS
SHOW SOME ACTIVITY CONTINUING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
DAYTIME HEATING WILL KICK OFF ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS IN
CONJUNCTION WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH. WE ARE IN A MARGINAL
RISK FROM SPC (LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER SO SOME ISOLATED
SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE THE BIGGEST THREATS TO MIDDLE TENNESSEE WITH ANY SEVERE
STORMS THAT FIRE UP SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WE COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG IN RAINED ON AREAS MONDAY MORNING, SO
BE MINDFUL WHEN PLANNING YOUR COMMUTE. LEAVE PLENTY OF EXTRA TIME
TO GET WHERE YOU'RE GOING AND USE YOUR LOW BEAM HEADLIGHTS IF YOU
RUN INTO ANY FOG. OTHERWISE, MONDAY LOOKS TO BE QUIETER, WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1034 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2026
WE WILL SEE A BREAK IN THE WET PATTERN THROUGH MID-WEEK, WHEN RAIN
CHANCES WILL RETURN TO THE FORECAST. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS
CONDUCIVE TO SHORTWAVES PASSING THROUGH, SO WEDNESDAY ONWARD WILL
HAVE MORE RAIN CHANCES AND POSSIBLY MORE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.
HARD TO SAY ANYTHING MORE THAN THAT THOUGH CURRENTLY. WHILE THERE
ARE SOME OPPORTUNITIES FOR BREAKS FROM RAIN IN THE NEXT WEEK, BUT
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN LOOKS TO STAY MORE ZONAL THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD, SO RAIN WILL BE AROUND. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S BY MID-WEEK, THEN FALL BACK INTO THE LOW
80S AFTER A FRONTAL PASSAGE TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1220 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2026
LITTLE IF ANY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED UNTIL
AFTER DAYBREAK WHEN A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PICK UP AHEAD OF THE FRONT, WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 20KTS FOR MOST OF THE DAY. MODELS HAVEN'T BEEN CONSISTENT
WITH TIMING OF FUTURE CONVECTION, SO SOME ADJUSTMENTS COULD OCCUR
IN THE NEXT TAF ISSUANCE. BY 00Z TO 02Z STORMS SHOULD BE EXITING
THE AREA WITH LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 86 61 80 59 / 80 10 0 0
CLARKSVILLE 83 59 78 56 / 90 0 0 0
CROSSVILLE 82 57 76 54 / 80 40 10 10
COLUMBIA 87 60 80 58 / 90 20 0 0
COOKEVILLE 83 58 76 56 / 70 30 0 0
JAMESTOWN 83 56 76 53 / 80 40 0 0
LAWRENCEBURG 85 60 79 58 / 90 30 10 0
MURFREESBORO 88 61 80 58 / 80 20 0 0
WAVERLY 83 59 78 57 / 90 10 0 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...HOLLEY
LONG TERM....HOLLEY
AVIATION.....05
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