010
FXUS64 KOHX 242357
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
657 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2026
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 654 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2026
- PLEASANT WEATHER TODAY.
- SEASONABLY WARM AND HUMID WEATHER WITH ON AND OFF CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS STARTING THURSDAY.
- MODERATE HEAT RISK EARLY NEXT WEEK AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 90S.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 654 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2026
IT'S A QUIET AND PLEASANT LATE JUNE EVENING WITH THE DIURNAL
CUMULUS FIELD DISSIPATING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST OVERNIGHT
WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW RETURNING. THERE COULD BE
SOME PATCHY FOG NEAR DAWN ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHWEST BUT DENSE
FOG IS NOT ANTICIPATED. HUMIDITY AND TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO
CLIMB STARTING TOMORROW, SO ENJOY THIS BREAK FROM THE SUMMER SOUP
WHILE YOU CAN.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1148 AM CDT WED JUN 24 2026
AS IS TRADITION IN THE SUMMER MONTHS, DIURNAL CUMULUS HAS BEGUN TO
BLOOM ON SATELLITE THIS AFTERNOON. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S TODAY AND MID
TO UPPER 80S TOMORROW.
OVERNIGHT, THERE'S A 20-40% CHANCE OF FOG LATE TONIGHT/EARLY
TOMORROW, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU AND SOUTH OF
I-40/WEST OF I-65. WE WILL HAVE TO SEE ABOUT THE LIKELIHOOD OF
THIS ACTUALLY DEVELOPING WITH CLOUD COVER EXPECTED OVERNIGHT FROM
A PASSING SHORTWAVE, BUT SOME POCKETS ARE POSSIBLE. LOWS SHOULD
DIP INTO THE 60S. OUR RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE THURSDAY, BUT
WILL REMAIN MORE ISOLATED IN COVERAGE.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1148 AM CDT WED JUN 24 2026
ALTHOUGH NO POTENT FRONTS ARE FORECAST TO CROSS THE AREA DURING THE
PERIOD, WEAK DISTURBANCES ALOFT WILL PRESENT LOW TO MEDIUM
CHANCES FOR DAILY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHEST CHANCES EACH
DAY WILL BE ALONG AND NORTH OF I-40, PEAKING SATURDAY AT 50-70%.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY LOOK INTERESTING IN THE GUIDANCE, AS HEAT WILL
BRING ABUNDANT INSTABILITY INTO THE REGION, WITH STEEP LAPSE
RATES. BEING SO DISPLACED FROM THE FORCING, LIKE WE WILL BE THIS
WEEKEND, IS A DISADVANTAGE WHEN IT COMES TO SEVERE WEATHER. THE
SEVERE THREAT, IF ONE DEVELOPS, LOOKS MORE MARGINAL/ISOLATED WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN THE MAIN THREATS AT THIS TIME.
SOMETHING TO CERTAINLY KEEP AN EYE ON AS WE APPROACH THE WEEKEND.
THE MORE ZONAL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN MEANS THE HEAT WILL BE CRANKED
UP INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS WELL. 850MB WINDS
WILL TURN MORE SOUTHWESTERLY, ADVECTING IN HEAT TO THE MID-STATE.
HIGHS THROUGH SATURDAY WILL GRADUALLY CREEP INTO THE UPPER 80S
AND LOW 90S. A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS RIGHT OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, COMBINED WITH AN
INFLUX OF GULF MOISTURE, WARMER TEMPERATURES, AND FAIRLY STAGNANT
FLOW WILL MAKE IT FEEL VERY HOT WITH WIDESPREAD HEAT INDICIES IN
THE TRIPLE DIGITS SUNDAY - WEDNESDAY. HEAT RISK LOOKS TO BE IN THE
MAJOR CATEGORY TO POSSIBLY EXTREME TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD,
MEANING HEAT ILLNESS WILL OCCUR IN A SHORTER AMOUNT OF TIME
OUTDOORS THAN USUAL. MAKE SURE TO KEEP THIS IN MIND IF YOU HAVE
ANY OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES IN THE COMING DAYS.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 618 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2026
TAFS ARE VFR. A SURFACE RIDGE IS IN THE PROCESS OF SLIDING ACROSS
MIDDLE TENNESSEE, SO LOOK FOR WINDS TO PICK UP FROM THE S/SW
DURING THE DAY TOMORROW, GENERALLY 6 KTS OR LESS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 66 89 72 92 / 0 10 20 20
CLARKSVILLE 65 89 71 91 / 0 20 40 30
CROSSVILLE 60 84 66 85 / 0 0 0 50
COLUMBIA 63 89 70 92 / 0 10 20 20
COOKEVILLE 61 85 68 86 / 0 0 10 50
JAMESTOWN 59 85 65 86 / 0 0 10 50
LAWRENCEBURG 63 86 69 89 / 0 20 20 20
MURFREESBORO 63 89 70 91 / 0 0 20 30
WAVERLY 65 88 70 90 / 0 20 30 10
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE.......REAGAN
SHORT TERM...HOLLEY
LONG TERM....HOLLEY
AVIATION.....ROSE
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