129
FXUS64 KOHX 201723
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1223 PM CDT MON APR 20 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1222 PM CDT MON APR 20 2026
- TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOLER-THAN-NORMAL THROUGH TONIGHT
WITH A WARMING TREND THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.
- NO RAIN THROUGH THURSDAY. MIDDLE TENNESSEE WILL ENJOY PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
- A MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL EMERGE BY FRIDAY, WITH
RAIN CHANCES LASTING THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND AND INTO THE FOLLOWING
WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1051 AM CDT MON APR 20 2026
AFTER ANOTHER CRISP, CLEAR AND COOL MORNING ACROSS MIDDLE TN, TODAY
WILL BE THE LAST DAY THIS WEEK WE'RE BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIVE OUR WEATHER WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND
SLOWLY WARMING TEMPERATURES EACH DAY THIS WEEK. RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES MAY BECOME AN ISSUE TOMORROW AFTERNOON FOR THOSE WITH FIRE
WEATHER INTERESTS, BUT LIGHT WINDS SHOULD MITIGATE ANY CONCERNS.
AFTER THAT, WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL SLOWLY INCREASE ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE BACK ABOVE ANY CRITICAL THRESHOLDS.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1051 AM CDT MON APR 20 2026
OUR NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE FRIDAY, AT THE EARLIEST. THERE IS
PLENTY OF MODEL DISAGREEMENT ABOUT THIS. SOME HAVE IT FRIDAY, SOME
HAVE IT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. LATEST RUN OF THE NBM LIKES THE FRIDAY
EVENING SOLUTION (70-80%), BUT HAS ALSO SLIGHTLY INCREASED POPS (60-
70%) ON SATURDAY FROM ITS PREVIOUS RUN. TAKING A LOOK AT FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FROM EACH DAY, AT THIS POINT, FRIDAY ISN'T AS INTERESTING
AS SATURDAY. A COUPLE HUNDRED JOULES OF CAPE AND SUB-PAR LAPSE RATES
SHOULD KEEP THINGS RELATIVELY QUIET FRIDAY. HOWEVER, AS WE GET INTO
SATURDAY, CAPE VALUES BECOME VERY HEALTHY (1500-2000 J/KG) AND MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES FINALLY GET UP TOWARDS NORMAL SPRING VALUES OF
AROUND 7.0 DEG/KM. HELICITY VALUES ARE CURRENTLY BEING SHOWN A
LITTLE LOWER THAN I'D LIKE TO SEE FOR A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT, BUT
35-40 KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD OPEN THE DOOR FOR AT LEAST A
MARGINAL THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER. SPC ISN'T CURRENTLY HIGHLIGHTING
ANYTHING IN THEIR EXTENDED FORECASTS, BUT IF MODELS CONTINUE TO
TREND IN THIS DIRECTION, I WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED TO SEE AT LEAST A
MENTION OF SOMETHING SOON.
BEYOND THE WEEKEND, THE MOST RECENT GFS AND EURO SOLUTIONS DO HAVE
DECENT AGREEMENT ON A MONDAY SYSTEM TO KICK OFF NEXT WEEK. THIS
SYSTEM IS EVEN MORE INTERESTING THAN SATURDAY'S, BUT THAT'S A
LONG WAY OFF AND THERE'S PLENTY THAT CAN CHANGE BETWEEN NOW AND
THEN, SO STAY TUNED.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT MON APR 20 2026
VFR WIND FORECAST FOR MIDDLE TENNESSEE AIRPORTS. WINDS ARE LIGHT
TODAY, W TO NW MAINLY, THEN CALM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT. WINDS BECOME SW TOMORROW WITH A FEW AFTERNOON GUSTS AND
A FEW CLOUDS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 49 82 55 80 / 0 0 0 0
CLARKSVILLE 49 80 53 79 / 0 0 0 0
CROSSVILLE 42 74 50 76 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBIA 48 80 52 79 / 0 0 0 0
COOKEVILLE 45 76 51 76 / 0 0 0 0
JAMESTOWN 41 75 50 76 / 0 0 0 0
LAWRENCEBURG 48 79 52 78 / 0 0 0 0
MURFREESBORO 47 80 51 80 / 0 0 0 0
WAVERLY 51 80 53 78 / 0 0 0 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...UNGER
LONG TERM....UNGER
AVIATION.....SIZEMORE
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