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FXUS64 KOHX 211718
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1218 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1207 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2026
- MEDIUM TO HIGH RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE EACH DAY THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
- LOW CHANCE OF DAMAGING WINDS ON FRIDAY WITH THE STRONGEST
STORMS.
- RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2-3 INCHES THROUGH NEXT WEEK, WITH A MEDIUM
CHANCE OF LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS. SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING
CONCERNS WILL BE POSSIBLE, BUT WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1125 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2026
SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY THAT HAS STUCK AROUND ALL MORNING FOR THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA CONTINUES AT THIS TIME BUT WE ARE STARTING
TO SEE SOME DEEPER CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN HALF IN THE LAST 30
MINUTES. THE SURFACE FRONT IS STALLED OVER THE AREA BASICALLY
CUTTING IT IN HALF. MORE SCATTERED ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON WITH DIURNAL HEATING. MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE PRETTY SATURATED
THROUGH 500 MB WITH WEAK SHEAR. THIS MEANS THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE
PRETTY LOW THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. IT ALSO MEANS PWAT VALUES
WILL CONTINUE TO BE HIGH WITH VALUES ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
STATIONARY FRONT CURRENTLY EXCEEDING 1.7" WHICH IS ABOVE THE 95TH
PERCENTILE. EXPECT SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
THE SURFACE FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY AS A
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW. WITH
THIS, THE LOW AND MID LEVEL WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH MLCAPE VALUES
EXCEEDING 1000 J/KG EAST OF I-65 FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL POSE A
LOW DOWNBURST POTENTIAL AND A VERY LOW TORNADO THREAT GIVEN THE
SLIGHTLY ELONGATED HODOGRAPHS. THE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL WILL
CONTINUE ON FRIDAY WITH SOME PONDING AND MINOR FLOOD ISSUES POSSIBLE
FOR THE AREAS UNDER THE HEAVIER ACTIVITY.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1125 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2026
FRIDAY'S UPPER WAVE WILL NOT DO ANYTHING TO CHANGE OUR OVERALL
PATTERN WITH THE DEEP, MOISTURE-RICH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUING
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS MEANS WE'LL SEE ADDITIONAL WAVES
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WHICH WILL HOPEFULLY EAT AWAY SOME OF THE
ANNUAL RAIN DEFICIT. THE LOW FLOODING AND PONDING THREAT WILL CARRY
INTO NEXT WEEK. AS FAR AS SEVERE POTENTIAL, PAST TOMORROW I AM NOT
SEEING ANYTHING ORGANIZED BUT A STRAY GUSTY STORM HERE AND THERE
WILL BE POSSIBLE. CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE ABNORMALLY HOT FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR, BUT IT WILL FEEL A BIT LIKE A GREENHOUSE WITH DEW
POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1207 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2026
A MESSY TAF PERIOD CONTINUES WITH ROUNDS OF RAIN EXPECTED.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH CIGS MAINLY A MIX OF MVFR TO IFR.
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TONIGHT WITH DECREASING CIGS AND
VISIBILITIES, ESPECIALLY AS RAIN MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTH AFTER 08Z
AND CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY. OUTSIDE OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS, WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT AND EASTERLY BEFORE BECOMING SOUTHERLY EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 63 78 64 82 / 80 90 90 70
CLARKSVILLE 62 77 64 81 / 70 90 80 60
CROSSVILLE 60 74 61 76 / 80 90 80 90
COLUMBIA 62 78 63 82 / 80 90 80 70
COOKEVILLE 61 77 63 79 / 80 90 80 90
JAMESTOWN 59 77 60 79 / 70 90 70 90
LAWRENCEBURG 63 77 64 80 / 80 90 80 80
MURFREESBORO 63 79 64 82 / 80 90 80 80
WAVERLY 63 77 64 82 / 80 90 90 60
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...REAGAN
LONG TERM....REAGAN
AVIATION.....CLEMENTS
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