104
FXUS64 KOHX 301741
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1241 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1238 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2026
- EXPECT DANGEROUS HEAT AND HUMIDITY THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK. AN
EXTREME HEAT WARNING IS IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA.
- HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 90S ACROSS THE
WARNING AREA, WITH AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES AS HOT AS 110+.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO REMAIN UNCOMFORTABLY WARM, ONLY FALLING
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S MOST AREAS.
- LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN AND STORMS WILL EMERGE LATER IN THE WEEK,
WITH BETTER CHANCES THIS WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2026
A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS SET UP OVER MIDDLE TN AND
CONTINUES TO BRING DANGEROUS HEAT TO THE AREA. WE ARE GOING TO SEE
WIDESPREAD EXTREME HEAT RISK THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. EXTREME
HEAT RISK MEANS THAT THERE IS RARE AND OR LONG DURATION EXTREME
HEAT WITH LITTLE TO NO OVERNIGHT RELIEF AFFECTING ANYONE WITHOUT
COOLING/HYDRATION AS WELL AS HEALTH SYSTEMS, INDUSTRIES, AND
INFRASTRUCTURE. MAKE SURE TO TAKE HEAT PRECAUTIONS THIS WEEK AND
TO REMAIN HYDRATED.
HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL PUSH INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S AND WITH
DEW POINTS IN THE MID 70S HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL GET AS HOT AS
109. SCATTERED AFTERNOON CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT THIS EVENING WITH
CONDITIONS STAYING HOT AND HUMID. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE GOING TO
REMAIN HOT TONIGHT ONLY FALLING INTO THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80.
THIS WILL BRING LIMITED RELIEF FROM THE HEAT ESPECIALLY TO THOSE
THAT DO NOT HAVE AIR CONDITIONING. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PUSH
EAST SOME ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL HAVE NO IMPACT ON THE HEAT BUT
WILL HELP TO BRING A LOW CHANCE FOR A POP UP SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM IN THE AFTERNOON MAINLY FOR SOUTHERN AREAS. HIGHS
WILL ONCE AGAIN PUSH INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S AND FEW AREAS MAY
BREAK THE 100 DEGREE MARK. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE AS HOT AS 111
DURING THE AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2026
OUR EXTENDED PERIOD OF DANGEROUS HEAT IS GOING TO CONTINUE THROUGH
AT LEAST FRIDAY. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 90S WITH SOME AREAS POSSIBLY SEEING 100+ AND HEAT INDEX
VALUES AS HOT AS 112. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE CLOSED OFF
SITTING TO OUR EAST. SOME WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVES WILL SPIN
AROUND THIS AND KICK OFF A LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCE FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THE CHANCES WILL BE MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENINGS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. WITH THE RIDGE FLATTENING
OUT SOME WE WILL SEE GRADUAL COOLING FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BUT IT
WILL STILL REMAIN HOT WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S AND HEAT
INDEX VALUES AS HOT AS 109. LOW TO MEDIUM THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK AS A TROUGH DIGS
INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE GOOD NEW WITH THIS IS IT WILL COOL US
BACK CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS. WIDESPREAD ORGANIZED STORMS ARE
NOT EXPECTED AS WE WILL HAVE LITTLE TO NO WIND SHEAR BUT WE WILL
SEE A TON OF CAPE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENINGS. THIS WILL BRING A
LOW WIND RISK WITH ANY TALLER STORMS AS THEY COLLAPSE. BRIEF
HEAVY DOWNPOURS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2026
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD IF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR SOME PATCHY ACROSS THE PLATEAU TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE, SIMILAR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 78 99 79 99 / 0 10 20 30
CLARKSVILLE 76 97 77 97 / 0 0 10 20
CROSSVILLE 72 92 73 93 / 0 10 10 30
COLUMBIA 76 99 76 99 / 0 20 10 30
COOKEVILLE 74 93 74 94 / 0 10 10 30
JAMESTOWN 72 93 72 94 / 0 10 20 20
LAWRENCEBURG 75 96 76 96 / 0 20 10 30
MURFREESBORO 76 100 77 100 / 0 10 20 30
WAVERLY 76 98 76 98 / 0 10 20 40
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR TNZ005>010-
023>032-056>064-075-093>095.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR TNZ011-033-034-065-066-
077>080.
SHORT TERM...MUELLER
LONG TERM....MUELLER
AVIATION.....CRAVENS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page