856
FXUS64 KOHX 301124
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
624 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 624 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2026
- NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MORE TOLERABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL
BE IN PLACE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
- MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURN FRIDAY
NIGHT AND LINGER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE
STORMS REMAINS VERY LOW FOR SATURDAY.
- WHILE THE THREAT OF FLOODING REMAINS LOW FOR SATURDAY, IT IS
WORTH KEEPING AN EYE ON THE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1036 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2026
IT WAS A NORMAL, HO-HUM SUMMER DAY ACROSS MIDDLE TN TODAY. AFTERNOON
HIGHS TOPPED OUT AT AN AVERAGE-EQUALING 91 DEGREES AT BNA AND EVEN
THOUGH DEW POINTS HAVE VERY SLOWLY SLID BACK INTO THE MID-60S,
EVERYONE ELSE REMAINS IN THE LOW 70S. THIS MEANS IT'S STILL WARM AND
STICKY OUT THERE FOR MOST. FORTUNATELY, THE DEW POINTS WILL BACK OFF
FOR EVERYONE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS SETTING UP A FAIRLY COMFORTABLE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY IF YOU HAVE TO BE OUTSIDE. ON TOP OF THAT, THE
RAIN SPIGOT WILL CONTINUE TO RUN DRY.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1036 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2026
I THINK MODELS HAVE COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT SINCE LAST NIGHT
REGARDING THE ARRIVAL OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR THE WEEKEND. HEAVY
CONSENSUS THAT FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BRING THE RETURN OF WET CONDITIONS.
IT LOOKS LIKE IT'LL BE AFTER SUNSET AND MAYBE CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT,
BUT DEFINITELY BEFORE SUNRISE SATURDAY AS A POSITIVELY-TILTED UPPER
LEVEL LOW DIGS INTO THE OHIO AND TN VALLEYS. I TOOK A LOOK AT
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AGAIN TONIGHT AND THEY'RE STILL UNIMPRESSIVE
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE APPROACHING FRONT.
FROPA SHOULD OCCUR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND WHILE WE'LL BE UNSTABLE,
LAPSE RATES ARE POOR (ON THE ORDER OF 6.0-6.3 DEG/KM). THAT SAID,
WHILE THE SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE VERY LOW SATURDAY
AFTERNOON, QPFS PROBS HAVE TICKED UP SINCE LAST NIGHT. THE LAST 4
RUNS OF THE NBM HAVE INCREMENTALLY INCREASED THE LIKELIHOOD OF
SEEING GREATER THAN 1.5 INCHES TO 40-50% WITH 2+ INCHES NOW UP TO
20-30%. ECMWF EFI TABLES FROM THIS MORNING HAVE ALSO STARTED TO
HIGHLIGHT OUR EASTERN HALF WITH A WEAK SIGNAL FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL, AS WELL. RIGHT NOW, THE GOOD NEWS IS, THIS IS FOCUSED
EAST OF I-65 WHERE 1- AND 3-HR FFG IS HIGHER. HOWEVER, IF THIS
TREND PERSISTS, WE MAY HAVE TO START TALKING ABOUT THIS A LITTLE
LOUDER.
RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE
UPPER LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM DIGS FURTHER INTO THE TN
VALLEY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK MANAGEABLE SUNDAY. THE GOOD NEWS,
IT SHOULD BE EVEN COOLER WITH LOW TO MID 80S ACCOMPANYING THE
RAIN.
TEMPERATURES REBOUND AS WE MOVE INTO NEXT WEEK (THOUGH STILL AT OR
JUST BELOW NORMALS) AND WITH GENERAL TROUGHINESS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST, DIURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY VERY WELL REMAIN IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH THIS TIME NEXT WEEK. IF YOUR GRASS IS GROWING OUT
OF CONTROL, I DON'T SEE MUCH HELP WITH THAT ANY TIME SOON.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 624 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2026
VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. FEW CLOUDS LINGERING IN AREA BUT
SHOULD DIMINISH BY 03Z. WINDS WILL START NORTHERLY TODAY, AND
SHIFT TO BE OUT OF THE EAST TONIGHT, BEFORE BECOMING SOUTHERLY
DURING THE DAY. MINIMAL CLOUD COVER EXPECTED TOMORROW DUE TO HIGH
PRESSURE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 88 66 91 73 / 0 0 0 60
CLARKSVILLE 88 63 90 73 / 0 0 0 80
CROSSVILLE 83 59 86 66 / 0 0 0 10
COLUMBIA 90 64 91 72 / 0 0 0 60
COOKEVILLE 83 61 86 68 / 0 0 0 30
JAMESTOWN 82 60 86 66 / 0 0 0 20
LAWRENCEBURG 88 64 90 71 / 0 0 0 50
MURFREESBORO 88 64 92 72 / 0 0 0 40
WAVERLY 90 65 91 72 / 0 0 0 60
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...UNGER
LONG TERM....UNGER
AVIATION.....HOLLEY
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