834
FXUS64 KOHX 030445
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1145 PM CDT THU APR 2 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1145 PM CDT THU APR 2 2026
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY WITH WARM,
BREEZY AFTERNOONS.
- HIGH CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS IS LOW.
- COOLER, MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CDT THU APR 2 2026
A WEAK BAND OF LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENCE IS NOW NEAR THE TENNESSEE
RIVER WHERE A LINE OF FRAGMENTED SHOWERS ARE ONGOING. THIS
ACTIVITY IS WEAKENING THANKS TO DRIER AIR AND WEAKENING FORCING.
THE BEST OVERALL FORCING/DYNAMICS REMAIN TO OUR NORTH NEAR THE
GREAT LAKES, BUT A LOW-LEVEL JET REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS OUR
REGION. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE THROUGH TOMORROW WITH
ANOTHER WARM AFTERNOON AND SOUTHERLY BREEZE. RAIN CHANCES ARE
LOW THROUGH TOMORROW. HOWEVER, ANOTHER DISTURBANCE, CURRENTLY
SITTING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES, WILL MOVE EAST ON SATURDAY.
THIS WILL TRACK A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH AND WILL BRING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH MIDDLE TENNESSEE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST AND
HOPEFULLY THIS WILL BRING A DECENT SOAKING OF RAIN CONSIDERING ALL
OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE IS IN SOME FORM OF DROUGHT. FORECAST TOTAL
RAINFALL IS <1.25", SO NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED. HOWEVER, A FEW
STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE, THE STRONGEST COULD PRODUCE SMALL HAIL
OR A STRONG WIND GUST. THE SEVERE RISK IS MAINLY LIMITED BY
THERMODYNAMICS.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CDT THU APR 2 2026
AFTER PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY, COOLER MORE SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY WHICH WILL
PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL FEATURE LOWS IN THE
30S/40S WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S THROUGH TUESDAY. LOW-LEVEL RIDGING
WILL PUSH EAST ON WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL OPEN THE DOOR TO RETURN
FLOW AND A WARMING TREND THAT WILL PERSIST INTO LATE NEXT WEEK.
RIDGING AND LITTLE MOISTURE RETURN KEEPS POPS <10%.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT THU APR 2 2026
NO BIG CHANGES MADE TO MIDDLE TENNESSEE TAFS. TERMINALS ARE QUIET
WITH S WINDS 5-10 KTS TONIGHT AND BKN MID-LEVEL CLOUDS. LIGHT
RADAR RETURNS ARE SITTING BETWEEN BNA AND CKV, BUT THERE'S NOT
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN WET RUNWAYS TO ADD TO THESE TAFS. DEWPOINT
SPREADS ARE LARGE AND PERHAPS A FEW DROPS MAKE IT TO THE GROUND.
AFTERNOON CONDITIONS WILL BE WARM AND BREEZY WITH S TO SSW WINDS
WITH GUSTS 18-25 KTS AT TIMES. WINDS SUBSIDE AGAIN AFTER ~00Z.
BNA LLWS IS ~25 KTS, BELOW TAF INCLUSION.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 67 86 65 84 / 10 10 0 90
CLARKSVILLE 67 86 65 80 / 40 10 10 90
CROSSVILLE 61 79 61 79 / 10 10 0 30
COLUMBIA 66 84 64 84 / 10 10 0 90
COOKEVILLE 65 81 63 80 / 10 10 0 30
JAMESTOWN 62 81 61 80 / 10 10 0 20
LAWRENCEBURG 66 83 64 82 / 10 0 0 80
MURFREESBORO 67 84 65 84 / 10 10 0 70
WAVERLY 67 86 66 81 / 30 10 10 90
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...SIZEMORE
LONG TERM....SIZEMORE
AVIATION.....SIZEMORE
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