548
FXUS64 KOHX 302314
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
614 PM CDT WED SEP 30 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 612 PM CDT WED SEP 30 2026
- WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY WITH HIGHS
REACHING THE LOW 80S TO MID 90S.
- MEDIUM TO HIGH RAIN CHANCES DEVELOP FRIDAY AND CONTINUE INTO
SATURDAY. RAIN CHANCES DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY WITH
COOLER, DRIER WEATHER THEREAFTER.
- MEDIUM CHANCE FOR MORE THAN 1 INCH OF RAIN THIS WEEKEND WITH
THE HEAVIEST RAIN EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1110 AM CDT WED SEP 30 2026
TEMPERATURES ARE CLIMBING THROUGH THE 70S CURRENTLY WITH LOW LEVEL
SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASING AND UPPER RIDING BUILDING. WITH DEW POINTS
IN THE 50S, TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB EFFICIENTLY THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S. THE
WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY WITH A FEW LOCATIONS
SNEAKING INTO THE MID 90S. WHILE WELL ABOVE NORMAL, RECORD HIGHS
WILL REMAIN INTACT. NASHVILLE AND CROSSVILLE'S RECORD HIGHS FOR
OCTOBER 1ST ARE 98 AND 91 RESPECTIVELY. THE UPPER TROUGH AND
FRONT WE'LL BE WATCHING FOR THIS WEEKEND WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS
ACROSS THE PLAINS ON THURSDAY, BUT FORCING AND APPRECIABLE
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA UNTIL FRIDAY.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1110 AM CDT WED SEP 30 2026
THE DRY PATTERN FINALLY STARTS TO CHANGE ON FRIDAY AS A BOUNDARY
MOVES INTO THE AREA AND ALONG WITH A MOISTURE AXIS. WHILE THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY, THE BOUNDARY
ALOFT WILL LINGER THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES
ALONG THE QUASI ZONAL UPPER FLOW. THIS WILL LEAD TO ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS THROUGH SUNDAY WHEN A DEEPER WAVE
PUSHES THE BOUNDARY FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO PUT AN END TO OUR RAIN
CHANCES. ENSEMBLES HAVE THE HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS ALONG THE
PLATEAU WITH LOWER AMOUNTS IN THE WEST AND NORTHWEST. LOCATIONS
ALONG THE PLATEAU HAVE ABOUT A 50-65% CHANCE OF PICKING UP AT
LEAST ONE INCH OF RAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOCATIONS IN THE WEST
AND NORTHWEST HAVE ABOUT A 30-40% CHANCE ON PICKING UP AN INCH OF
RAIN. WITH THE BETTER DYNAMICS REMAINING WELL NORTH OF THE AREA
AND POOR LAPSE RATES DUE TO SATURATED SOUNDINGS, SEVERE STORMS ARE
NOT ANTICIPATED.
BEHIND THE WEEKEND SYSTEM, TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK CLOSER TO
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 40S AND 50S. THE AREA
WILL BE DRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.|
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 612 PM CDT WED SEP 30 2026
VFR CATS THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE. LIGHT TO CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT,
BECOMING BREEZY AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH SSW GUSTS OF 15 TO
18 KTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 67 94 72 88 / 0 0 10 70
CLARKSVILLE 65 94 70 82 / 0 0 30 80
CROSSVILLE 59 85 64 83 / 0 0 0 50
COLUMBIA 64 94 70 90 / 0 0 10 70
COOKEVILLE 64 88 69 85 / 0 0 0 70
JAMESTOWN 62 86 67 83 / 0 0 0 70
LAWRENCEBURG 63 92 68 89 / 0 0 0 50
MURFREESBORO 65 95 71 90 / 0 0 0 60
WAVERLY 66 90 70 80 / 0 0 30 80
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...REAGAN
LONG TERM....REAGAN
AVIATION.....UNGER
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