266
FXUS64 KOHX 220531
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1231 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1222 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2026
- MEDIUM TO HIGH RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE EACH DAY THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
- LOW CHANCE OF DAMAGING WINDS OR A BRIEF TORNADO ON FRIDAY WITH
STRONGEST STORMS.
- RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2-3 INCHES THROUGH NEXT WEEK, WITH A MEDIUM
CHANCE OF AMOUNTS GREATER THAN 4 INCHES IN SOME AREAS.
LOCALIZED FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2026
A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE
ARKLATEX REGION TOWARD MIDDLE TENNESSEE CURRENTLY. THIS IS HELPING
TO INCREASE FORCING AND PWS WHICH IS ALREADY BEING REALIZED WITH
WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY AND BENEFICIAL RAINFALL. LITTLE TO NO
LIGHTNING IS CURRENTLY OBSERVED WITH SATURATED VERTICAL PROFILES.
THE 00Z BNA RAOB INDICATED A 1.77" PW AND <600 J/KG MLCAPE.
PERIODS OF SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING AS
MOISTURE ADVECTION PERSISTS DUE TO A STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET.
SOME HI-RES GUIDANCE BRINGS PWS TO DAILY MAX VALUES. FURTHERMORE,
INCREASING LOW- TO MID-LEVEL WINDS IS EXPECTED TO LENGTHEN AND
BROADEN HODOGRAPHS DURING DIURNAL HEATING. THUS, SOME
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE EXPECTED AND SEVERE WEATHER CANNOT BE
RULED OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE MAIN THREATS ARE DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO IN THE STRONGEST STORMS.
THE SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO BE TO OUR NORTHEAST MID
EVENING. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN DECREASED FORCING AND INSTABILITY,
AS WELL AS SHEAR PROFILES, ONCE THE LLJ MOVES TO OUR EAST INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS ARE FORECAST ON SATURDAY,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE PLATEAU. HOWEVER, OVERALL COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO BE A DECREASE COMPARED TO FRIDAY.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2026
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST TO PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH CONTINUED PRESENCE OF LOW-LEVEL FLOW VECTORS OFF THE
GULF. THIS WILL SUPPORT DAILY CHANCES FOR RAIN/STORMS WHICH WILL
MAINLY BE DIURNALLY-DRIVEN. BY MID NEXT WEEK FLOW ALOFT BECOMES A
LITTLE MORE DISPLACED FROM OUR REGION AS THE POLAR JET RETREATS
TO THE NORTH AND A QUASI OMEGA BLOCK SETS UP ACROSS THE CONUS.
WITH A TROPICAL AIRMASS REMAINING SITUATED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
WE'LL CONTINUE TO SEE MEDIUM-HIGH RAIN CHANCES EACH DAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES WILL MAINLY STICK TO AREAS WITH BEST
MOISTURE QUALITY AT THIS FORECAST RANGE.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1222 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2026
POOR FLYING CONDITIONS PERSIST THIS TAF CYCLE. CIGS ARE BOUNCING
ANYWHERE FROM LOW MVFR TO LIFR. BASED ON DOWNSTREAM SATELLITE OBS,
THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WAVES OF
LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS WILL IMPACT TERMINALS OVERNIGHT, TOO,
RESULTING IN TEMPORARY VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. THERE WILL BE LOW
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AT ALL TERMINALS MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON. EASTERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT SOUTHERLY AFTER 15Z.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 77 65 82 64 / 80 80 50 30
CLARKSVILLE 75 64 81 63 / 90 60 30 20
CROSSVILLE 73 61 77 60 / 90 70 80 50
COLUMBIA 77 63 82 62 / 90 70 60 40
COOKEVILLE 75 63 79 62 / 90 60 70 40
JAMESTOWN 75 61 79 59 / 90 60 70 40
LAWRENCEBURG 75 64 80 63 / 90 80 70 40
MURFREESBORO 77 64 82 63 / 90 70 70 40
WAVERLY 76 64 82 64 / 90 60 30 30
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...SIZEMORE
LONG TERM....SIZEMORE
AVIATION.....BAGGETT
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page