570
FXUS64 KOHX 291728
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1228 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1228 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2026
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY
WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
- A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF LOCALIZED
FLOODING.
- DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN NEXT WEEK WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1104 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2026
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ALONG WITH A SURFACE LOW IS HELPING TO BRING
DEEPER MOISTURE INTO MIDDLE TN. CURRENT DEWPOINTS ARE SITTING IN THE
UPPER-60S TO LOW-70S WITH THE PWAT ON THIS MORNING'S SOUNDING UP TO
1.57" (WHICH IS THE 90TH PERCENTILE). THIS ANOMALOUS MOISTURE
KEEPS US IS THE SAME PATTERN WE'VE BEEN STUCK IN FOR MANY DAYS.
LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE BEEN ONGOING THIS MORNING, BUT AS INSTABILITY
INCREASES THIS AFTERNOON, COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL INCREASE THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AS WELL. WIND SHEAR
IS VERY WEAK SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY SEVERE WEATHER, BUT BRIEF
STRONG STORMS THAT PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY WINDS CAN'T
BE RULED OUT. ADDITIONAL RAIN AMOUNTS THROUGH SATURDAY ARE
GENERALLY EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 0.50 TO 1 INCHES WITH HIGHER
AMOUNTS IN STRONGER STORMS.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1104 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2026
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE PLAINS STARTING SUNDAY.
WHILE DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO WORK ITS WAY INTO MIDDLE TN IN
RESPONSE, ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL LINGER TO KEEP LOW TO MEDIUM RAIN
CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY. WE FINALLY GET AT LEAST A
FEW DRY DAYS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
DOMINATES THE PATTERN AND ITS AXIS SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST. LOW RAIN
CHANCES LOOK TO RETURN ON FRIDAY AS MODELS HINT THAT THE RIDGE
BREAKS DOWN WITH MOISTURE RETURNING TO THE AREA. AS WE MAKE OUR
WAY INTO JUNE, LOOK FOR HIGHS TO GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO
MID-80S WHICH IS NEAR NORMAL.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2026
SH AND TS WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD MIDDLE TENNESSEE THIS
AFTERNOON. WHILE CHANCES FOR SH/TS DECREASE OVERNIGHT, FG WILL
DEVELOP IN ITS PLACE, DROPPING VISIBILITY ESPECIALLY AT SITES LIKE
SRB AND CSV DOWN TO 1SM OR LOWER. CEILINGS WILL BE IFR/LIFR INTO
THE MORNING HOURS SATURDAY MORNING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 66 82 63 82 / 70 60 10 60
CLARKSVILLE 66 82 62 82 / 60 50 10 30
CROSSVILLE 63 77 57 76 / 90 70 20 60
COLUMBIA 65 82 63 82 / 60 80 20 70
COOKEVILLE 64 79 59 79 / 90 60 20 70
JAMESTOWN 62 79 56 79 / 90 70 10 60
LAWRENCEBURG 65 81 63 80 / 70 70 20 70
MURFREESBORO 65 83 62 82 / 80 70 20 70
WAVERLY 66 82 63 84 / 50 60 10 50
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...CLEMENTS
LONG TERM....CLEMENTS
AVIATION.....HOLLEY
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