340  
FXUS64 KOHX 020445  
AFDOHX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN  
1045 PM CST THU DEC 1 2022  
   
..NEW AVIATION
 
 
   
UPDATE
 
 
ISSUED AT 610 PM CST THU DEC 1 2022  
 
LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED  
QUICKLY THIS EVENING INTO THE 30S DUE TO THE VERY DRY AIRMASS IN  
PLACE, AS DEWPOINTS ARE ONLY IN THE 10S/20S. IN FACT, A FEW  
LOCATIONS HAVE ALREADY DROPPED BELOW THEIR FORECAST LOWS FOR  
TONIGHT, SO HAD TO LOWER MIN TEMPS ACROSS THE BOARD. HOWEVER,  
LOWS WILL OCCUR IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS A 30 KT LLJ IS  
FORECAST TO KICK INTO GEAR LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT,  
WHICH WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS TO RISE THROUGH THE  
NIGHT. REST OF FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
 
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 217 PM CST THU DEC 1 2022  
 
SURFACE HIGH LOCATED OVER KY THIS AFTERNOON WITH DRY, TRANQUIL AND  
COOL WEATHER IN PLACE. ZONAL PATTERN EXISTS IN THE MID AND UPPER  
LEVELS SO WEATHER FEATURES WILL MOVE QUICKLY WEST TO EAST OVER THE  
SHORT TERM. WITH THAT SAID, THE NEXT FROPA IS EXPECTED SATURDAY  
MORNING. PRIOR TO THAT TIME, SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL COMMENCE DURING  
THE DAY ON FRIDAY AND BECOME WIDESPREAD FRIDAY NIGHT. LOOKS LIKE  
RAINFALL TOTALS WILL AVERAGE BETWEEN ONE QUARTER AND ONE HALF INCH.  
RAINFALL WILL END DURING THE DAY BUT CLOUDS WILL REMAIN AS PLENTY OF  
MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESIDE.  
 
FOR THE NEAR TERM TEMPS, CHILLY AGAIN TONIGHT BUT WE WILL SEE A  
STRONG WARMUP FOR FRIDAY AS WINDS QUICKLY TURN SOUTHERLY. LOOKS  
LIKE UPPER 50S FOR HIGHS. TEMPS WILL LEVEL OFF IN THE UPPER 40S AND  
LOWER 50S FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AS STRONG WAA CONTINUES. IT WILL TURN  
COLDER BEHIND THE SATURDAY MORNING FROPA WITH TEMPS FALLING  
INTO THE 40S.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM
 
 
(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)  
ISSUED AT 217 PM CST THU DEC 1 2022  
 
IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST, SPLIT FLOW UPCOMING AS A STRONG UPPER LOW  
MOVES TOWARD THE PACIFIC COAST. SUBTROPICAL JET WILL BECOME QUITE  
ACTIVE OVER THE DURATION OF THE EXTENDED. A WARM FRONT PRECURSOR  
AND THEN A STRONGER WARM FRONT WILL MOVE OUR WAY SUNDAY THROUGH  
TUESDAY. BOUNDARIES WILL BE ORIENTED PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW WITH  
STRONG ASSOCIATED LIFTING. MODELS HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING THE  
POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING FOR OUR AREA FOR MANY PRIOR MODEL RUNS.  
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2"-4" FROM SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY LOOKS  
POSSIBLE. THE PRIMARY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH  
THE PRECIP ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER WILL  
BE IN PLACE ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT.  
 
FOR THE EXTENDED TEMPERATURES, COLD ON SUNDAY BUT WARMING UP QUICKLY  
WITH THE WARM FRONT WORKING NORTHWARD. RISING TEMPS ARE POSSIBLE  
MONDAY NIGHT WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S FOR TUESDAY. IT WILL COOL DOWN  
CLOSER TO NORMAL AFTER THE WEDNESDAY FROPA.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
(06Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 1030 PM CST THU DEC 1 2022  
 
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE TONIGHT IN ADVANCE  
OF OUR NEXT STORM SYSTEM. SOME VERY LIGHT SPRINKLES AND/OR SNOW  
FLURRIES ARE BEGINNING TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST AT THIS HOUR,  
HOWEVER, THEY WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND WON'T HAVE AN IMPACT TONIGHT.  
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING,  
AND THEN RAIN SHOWERS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE BY LATE AFTERNOON  
ACROSS THE WEST AND THEN EXPAND EASTWARD AFTER 00Z.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
NASHVILLE 35 59 49 59 / 10 40 100 40  
CLARKSVILLE 33 59 45 52 / 10 40 90 20  
CROSSVILLE 30 55 45 58 / 10 20 80 60  
COLUMBIA 32 59 49 61 / 10 40 90 40  
COOKEVILLE 32 58 48 58 / 10 20 90 60  
JAMESTOWN 30 57 46 58 / 10 20 90 50  
LAWRENCEBURG 32 59 49 61 / 10 30 90 50  
MURFREESBORO 32 59 49 60 / 10 30 90 50  
WAVERLY 33 59 46 55 / 10 40 100 30  
 

 
   
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  

 
 

 
 
UPDATE.......SHAMBURGER  
SHORT TERM...21  
LONG TERM....21  
AVIATION.....CLEMENTS  
 
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