793
FXUS64 KOHX 051048
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
548 AM CDT MON OCT 5 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 545 AM CDT MON OCT 5 2026
- DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY WITH COOL NIGHTS AND WARM
DAYS.
- LOW TO MEDIUM RAIN CHANCES (<50%) THIS WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT SUN OCT 4 2026
WE'RE CURRENTLY BETWEEN TWO SURFACE FRONTS; THE MOST IMPORTANT
ONE IS THE COLD FRONT NOW MOVING INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE. THIS IS
MOSTLY NOTICEABLE WHEN LOOKING AT SURFACE DEWPOINTS AND ANALYZED PWS.
THE DEWPOINT AT CKV IS CURRENTLY 49, AS OPPOSED TO 64 AT MQY.
THIS REINFORCEMENT OF DRIER, COOLER AIR WILL SUPPORT COOL NIGHTS,
BUT WARM AFTERNOONS, THROUGH THE SHORT-TERM WITH HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. DRY, BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL
RESULT IN MARGINAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON,
BUT AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TUESDAY WHICH SHOULD
MITIGATE RH CONCERNS.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT SUN OCT 4 2026
CONTINUED STABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY AS MUCH OF THE
EASTERN CONUS IS INFLUENCED BY HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS AND
PERSISTENT UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING. WE MIGHT SEE A SHORTWAVE WED/THU
WEEK, BUT APPEARS TO BE MOISTURE DEPRIVED. REGARDLESS, WE SHOULD
EXPERIENCE GRADUAL WARMING WITH BEST RAIN CHANCES THIS WEEKEND.
MEDIUM-RANGE GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLES ALL SUGGEST GULF MOISTURE
SPREADING NORTHWARD INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY, ASSUMING THE UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH CAN LIFT NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD NEWFOUNDLAND OPENING
THE DOOR FOR LOW PRESSURE/MOISTURE TO MOVE OUR WAY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 545 AM CDT MON OCT 5 2026
OTHER THAN A FEW PATCHES OF SHALLOW FOG THIS MORNING, VFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR ALL SITES WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
EXCELLENT VSBYS. LIGHT NNE WINDS WILL INCREASE NEAR 10KT WITH A
FEW 16KT GUSTS TODAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 81 52 83 55 / 0 0 0 0
CLARKSVILLE 80 49 82 52 / 0 0 0 0
CROSSVILLE 75 45 77 48 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBIA 81 49 84 52 / 0 0 0 0
COOKEVILLE 75 48 78 52 / 0 0 0 0
JAMESTOWN 75 46 78 51 / 0 0 0 0
LAWRENCEBURG 81 48 84 52 / 0 0 0 0
MURFREESBORO 82 48 85 53 / 0 0 0 0
WAVERLY 77 51 79 53 / 0 0 0 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...SIZEMORE
LONG TERM....SIZEMORE
AVIATION.....13
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