619
FXUS64 KOHX 201625
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1125 AM CDT TUE OCT 20 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1125 AM CDT TUE OCT 20 2026
- MILD, SUNNY DAYS AND COOL, CLEAR NIGHTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.
- NO RAIN FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE
GOING TO WORSEN.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1031 AM CDT TUE OCT 20 2026
ANOTHER COOL, DRY, AND SUNNY DAY IS UNDERWAY ACROSS MIDDLE TN.
THIS MORNING'S UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS PLACED A BROAD MIDLEVEL RIDGE
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS, RESULTING IN THIS PROLONGED PERIOD OF DRY
WEATHER. THE COLUMN IS EXTREMELY DRY IN THE LOW LEVELS, WHICH WILL
PREVENT ANY LIGHT RADAR RETURNS FROM THE INCOMING ALTOCU DECK
FROM REACHING THE GROUND. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL HELP KEEP
MOISTURE VERY LOW WHILE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE HEATS THE SURFACE TO THE
MID 70S FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WHILE THIS IS QUITE PLEASANT FOR
THE GENERAL POPULATION, THIS COMBINATION OF WARM AND VERY DRY AIR
ALSO CREATES ELEVATED FIRE DANGER, WHICH IS OUR PRIMARY CONCERN
FOR THE NEXT WEEK OR SO.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1031 AM CDT TUE OCT 20 2026
THIS IS A PERSISTENCE FORECAST LIKE NO OTHER; WHAT YOU SEE IS
WHAT YOU GET FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 7 DAYS. WITH ONGOING DROUGHT
AND NO RAIN IN SIGHT, DRY FUELS AND DRY AIR HAVE OUR GUARD UP FOR
FIRE DANGER FOR THE REST OF THIS WEEK AND MAYBE EVEN INTO THE
WEEKEND. THE MIDLEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL PERSIST
FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE, RESULTING IN MILD DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS
WITH LESS THAN 5% CHANCE OF RAIN. AGAIN, LOVELY FOR MOST PEOPLE
BUT COMES AS A DOUBLE-EDGED SWORD WITH A RISK OF FIRE DANGER. ANY
FIRES THAT START WILL HAVE A MUCH EASIER TIME SPREADING UNDER
THESE CONDITIONS. DROUGHT WILL CONTINUE TO WORSEN ACROSS THE STATE
AND FIRE DANGER WILL LIKELY INCREASE THE LONGER WE GO WITHOUT
RAIN.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1125 AM CDT TUE OCT 20 2026
TAFS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH NO CIG
ISSUES AND WINDS OUT OF THE NORTH AROUND 5 KNOTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 76 45 76 45 / 0 0 0 0
CLARKSVILLE 75 43 76 46 / 0 0 0 0
CROSSVILLE 72 44 71 44 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBIA 76 46 76 45 / 0 0 0 0
COOKEVILLE 72 45 71 45 / 0 0 0 0
JAMESTOWN 71 45 70 45 / 0 0 0 0
LAWRENCEBURG 75 46 75 44 / 0 0 0 0
MURFREESBORO 77 44 76 44 / 0 0 0 0
WAVERLY 74 48 74 46 / 0 0 0 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...DIRKES
LONG TERM....DIRKES
AVIATION.....HOLLEY
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