602
FXUS64 KOHX 201712
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1212 PM CDT MON JUL 20 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1209 PM CDT MON JUL 20 2026
- A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN PLACE TODAY AND TOMORROW FOR FEEL LIKE
TEMPERATURES REACHING 105+ DEGREES EACH AFTERNOON.
- THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY. MAIN IMPACTS ARE DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN.
- COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARRIVE WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1144 AM CDT MON JUL 20 2026
TODAY, HIGHS WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD IN THE 90S, EVEN IN SOME AREAS
OF THE PLATEAU. WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE AN INCREASE IN HEAT INDICES
TO START THE WORK WEEK, SO A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. WHILE THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLATED SPOTS THAT REACH
110 DEGREES TUESDAY, CLOUD COVER WILL IMPACT THE ABILITY TO GET TOO
FAR ABOVE THAT. REGARDLESS, IT WILL BE HOT, SO MAKE SURE YOU ARE
DRINKING PLENTY OF WATER, RESTING IN THE AC OR SHADE, AND KNOW THE
SIGNS OF HEAT ILLNESS. RAIN WISE, POPCORN CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE
ON MONDAY IN THE SCATTERED FASHION WE HAVE SEEN LATELY. THE
ATMOSPHERE IS CHOCK FULL OF MOISTURE RIGHT NOW, AND THAT'S THE WAY
IT WILL STAY THROUGH MID-WEEK.
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, A 500MB TROUGH AND ACCOMPANYING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL SWING THROUGH ONTARIO, DRAGGING BEHIND THEM THE COLD
FRONT WE WILL SEE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING US
SOME FORCING AND NOT SURPRISINGLY, A RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER. WE
REMAIN IN A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER TUESDAY INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY. SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THERE WILL BE 2 ROUNDS OF
STORMS, WHEREAS OTHERS SEEM TO STICK TO ONE. MOST LIKELY TIME FRAME
FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS TUESDAY,
POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS (ESPECIALLY IF THE 2
ROUNDS SOLUTION STICKS). ONE THING GUIDANCE CAN AGREE ON IS THE
LINEAR STORM MODE, AND THAT THE LINE OF STORMS WILL APPROACH MIDDLE
TENNESSEE FROM KENTUCKY. AS IT STANDS NOW, DAMAGING WINDS CONTINUE
THEIR STREAK OF BEING A POPULAR HAZARD WITH OUR SEVERE CHANCES THIS
SUMMER. THERE APPEARS TO BE A LOW END TORNADO THREAT IN CAMS WITH
THIS SYSTEM, HOWEVER, TODAY'S GUIDANCE IS NOT AS THRILLED WITH THE
PROSPECT AS IT WAS YESTERDAY. REGARDLESS, AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT
BE RULED OUT.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1144 AM CDT MON JUL 20 2026
AFTER THE COLD FRONT, WE WILL ENTER A QUIETER PERIOD FOR THE MID-
WEEK. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 80S STARTING ON WEDNESDAY, SLOWLY
WARMING BACK INTO THE 90S INTO NEXT WEEKEND. IT DOES LOOK LIKE WE
COULD SEE ANOTHER SYSTEM FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY ASSOCIATED
WITH A SHORTWAVE IN THE MID-LEVELS, BUT SPECIFICS ARE NOT TOO CLEAR
ON THAT SYSTEM JUST YET.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1209 PM CDT MON JUL 20 2026
MVFR CIGS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR OVER THE NEXT ONE TO TWO HOURS.
STORM COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN PREVIOUS
DAYS, SO PROB30S WERE EXCLUDED. THE CHANCE A TERMINAL IS IMPACTED
BY A STORM THIS AFTERNOON IS LOW BUT NOT ZERO. THERE'S A MEDIUM
CHANCE FOG IMPACTS CSV/SRB AFTER 06Z. WINDS WILL BE 5 KTS OR LESS
UNTIL AFTER 21/14Z WHEN SSW WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 76 94 74 87 / 10 30 90 10
CLARKSVILLE 76 95 71 86 / 0 40 70 0
CROSSVILLE 70 88 70 82 / 10 30 90 50
COLUMBIA 74 94 73 88 / 10 20 80 10
COOKEVILLE 73 90 71 83 / 10 30 90 30
JAMESTOWN 71 88 69 82 / 20 40 100 30
LAWRENCEBURG 73 93 73 86 / 10 20 80 30
MURFREESBORO 75 95 74 88 / 10 20 90 20
WAVERLY 75 94 72 86 / 10 20 90 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR TNZ005>011-023>034-
056>066-075-077>080-093>095.
SHORT TERM...HOLLEY
LONG TERM....HOLLEY
AVIATION.....REAGAN
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