563
FXUS64 KOHX 221748
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1248 PM CDT SAT AUG 22 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1243 PM CDT SAT AUG 22 2026
- LOW CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
EVENING, PRIMARILY EAST OF I-65. SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO
SEVERE POSING A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
- SLIGHTLY BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES, PARTICULARLY OVERNIGHT, THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- LOW TO MEDIUM RAIN AND STORM CHANCES MOST DAYS NEXT WEEK WITH
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1150 AM CDT SAT AUG 22 2026
A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS TODAY. AN EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE IS NOW ADVANCING SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WITH AN ASSOCIATED FRONT NOW ALONG THE
OHIO RIVER MAKING ITS WAY TOWARD MIDDLE TENNESSEE. THOUGH IT IS
RELATIVELY DRY CURRENTLY, SLIGHT MOISTENING IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF
THE FRONT AS IT APPROACHES MIDDLE TENNESSEE DURING PEAK AFTERNOON
HEATING. THIS WILL SUPPORT INCREASING SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY
(2,000-3,000 J/KG) THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN A NICE CORRIDOR OF MID-
LEVEL FLOW (~40 KTS). AS A RESULT, ANY STORMS THAT FORM AND
MAINTAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL POSE A THREAT FOR
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS HAIL UP TO QUARTER SIZE. THIS BAND
OF CONVECTION SHOULD MAINLY BE LIMITED TO 3 PM TO 9 PM ACROSS
MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND GREATEST OVERALL CHANCES ARE FOR AREAS EAST
OF I-65.
THE REST OF THE SHORT-TERM LOOKS DRY AND STABLE AS WE REMAIN IN
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND AMIDST AN AREA OF DRIER AIR BEHIND THE
FRONT MOVING THROUGH TONIGHT.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1150 AM CDT SAT AUG 22 2026
COOLER OVERNIGHTS AND MORNINGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK THANKS TO DRIER AIR IN PLACE. HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THE
PLATEAU ARE FORECAST TO HAVE LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S MONDAY AND
TUESDAY MORNINGS.
TROUGHING WILL MAKE A SLOW PROGRESSION TO THE EAST MID TO LATE
NEXT WEEK. THIS SHOULD OPEN THE DOOR FOR AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE
FROM THE WEST. CONTINUED MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WILL PERSIST
FROM THE NORTHWEST PROVIDING A CORRIDOR FOR SHORTWAVES TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA. THESE PASSING DISTURBANCES SUPPORT THE LOW TO
MEDIUM RAIN AND STORM CHANCES MOST DAYS NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES
ARE GENERALLY NEAR SEASONAL NORMS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT SAT AUG 22 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH GUSTY N WINDS.
A COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING FROM THE NW AND WILL BRING SOME MID
LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH MIDDLE TN. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO IMPACT TERMINALS SO DECIDED TO NOT INCLUDE WITH THE
LATEST TAF ISSUANCE. WILL NEED TO MONITOR AS THE FRONT APPROACHES
FOR STORM TRENDS AND WILL UPDATE TAFS AS NEEDED. LOW TO MEDIUM
CHANCES FOR FOG TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE PLATEAU TONIGHT AND
DISSIPATE AFTER 12Z SUNDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 64 89 62 88 / 20 0 0 0
CLARKSVILLE 63 86 60 86 / 0 0 0 0
CROSSVILLE 60 82 58 83 / 20 0 0 0
COLUMBIA 66 90 63 90 / 20 0 0 0
COOKEVILLE 62 84 59 83 / 10 0 0 0
JAMESTOWN 61 82 58 82 / 20 0 0 0
LAWRENCEBURG 65 88 62 88 / 20 0 0 0
MURFREESBORO 65 90 62 89 / 20 0 0 0
WAVERLY 65 87 63 87 / 10 0 0 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...SIZEMORE
LONG TERM....SIZEMORE
AVIATION.....CRAVENS
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