591
FXUS64 KOHX 231708
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1208 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1200 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2026
- MEDIUM TO HIGH RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE EACH DAY THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
- RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2-4 INCHES THROUGH NEXT WEEK, WITH A MEDIUM
CHANCE OF AMOUNTS GREATER THAN 4 INCHES IN SOME AREAS. LOCALIZED
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.
- THE THREAT FOR STRONG STORMS IS LOW, BUT NOT ZERO. A COUPLE
STORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS. NO ORGANIZED SEVERE THREATS
ARE ANTICIPATED.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1143 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2026
SHOWERS AND A COUPLE STORMS HAVE BEEN FOCUSED ALONG A STATIONARY
BOUNDARY THIS MORNING WHICH STRETCHES FROM WAYNE CO NORTHEASTWARD
THROUGH MACON CO. RAINFALL RATES HAVE BEEN MODERATE WITH SOME
OCCASIONAL DOWNPOURS. CAMS FOCUS ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG AND EAST OF THE BOUNDARY. THERE ARE SOME PEEKS OF
SUNSHINE OUT THERE WITH DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70
DEGREES. CURRENT MESOANALYSIS SHOWS 500 TO JUST ABOVE 1000 J/KG OF
MLCAPE WITH VALUES EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG
THIS AFTERNOON. SHEAR IS WEAK TODAY WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES
AROUND 20 KTS. MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE NOT AS SATURATED TODAY BUT LOW
AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE STILL AROUND 6 C/KM. A COUPLE OF
STORMS MAY PRODUCE SOME GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON, BUT AN ORGANIZED
SEVERE THREAT IS NOT PRESENT. HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL STILL BE IN
PLAY, SO THERE IS A LOW RISK OF PONDING UNDER THE HEAVIEST
ACTIVITY.
CAMS SHOW ANOTHER WAVE OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT WITH ACTIVITY BECOMING
MORE WIDESPREAD AGAIN ON SUNDAY AS A SHORTWAVE SLIDES BY THE AREA.
THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH A VERY LOW CHANCE OF A
COUPLE OF STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1143 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2026
THE UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES NEXT WEEK AS A CLOSED UPPER LOW
DEVELOPS OVER EAST TEXAS. THIS WILL KEEP OUR SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY
MOISTURE-RICH UPPER FLOW IN PLACE WITH DISTURBANCES BEING KICKED OUT
OF THE UPPER LOW. OVERALL, SHEAR REMAINS WEAK, SO NO ORGANIZED
SEVERE THREATS ARE ANTICIPATED. PWAT VALUES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED, SO
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE. THE UPPER AIR PATTERN
BECOMES A LITTLE MORE QUESTIONABLE TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AS A
LARGE TROUGH DIGS INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS. IF THAT TROUGH CAN
MAKE IT FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND WEST, IT MAY PUSH US TOWARD A DRIER
PATTERN. HOWEVER, IF IT IS FURTHER EAST, WE MAY REMAIN IN THIS HUMID
AND ACTIVE PATTERN. AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE FORECAST, IT
WILL BE MILD WITH LOWS IN THE 60S AND HIGHS IN THE 80S WITH DEW
POINTS IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2026
A STATIONARY BOUNDARY HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR A LINE OF SHOWERS
WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MOVING NORTHEAST NEAR BNA AND MQY. AREAS
NEAR AND EAST OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE FOCUS FOR
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND SO
HAVE MAINTAINED THE PROB30 GROUPS FOR TSRA FOR BNA, MQY, CSV, AND
SRB. ANOTHER WAVE OF SHOWERS MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT
WITH ACTIVITY BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD ON SUNDAY. CIGS ARE
CURRENTLY MVFR, BUT SHOULD BRIEFLY RETURN TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON.
CIGS WILL QUICKLY LOWER AGAIN THOUGH OVERNIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 63 82 65 80 / 30 60 80 90
CLARKSVILLE 62 82 64 79 / 20 60 60 80
CROSSVILLE 60 78 61 77 / 60 70 80 90
COLUMBIA 62 81 63 79 / 40 60 80 90
COOKEVILLE 61 80 63 79 / 50 70 80 90
JAMESTOWN 59 80 60 78 / 50 70 80 90
LAWRENCEBURG 63 80 64 78 / 50 60 80 90
MURFREESBORO 63 82 64 81 / 40 60 80 90
WAVERLY 63 82 65 79 / 40 60 80 80
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...REAGAN
LONG TERM....REAGAN
AVIATION.....CLEMENTS
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