348
FXUS64 KOHX 150003
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
603 PM CST SUN DEC 14 2025
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 557 PM CST SUN DEC 14 2025
- A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF MIDDLE TN
THROUGH NOON MONDAY.
- AS PART OF 36 STRAIGHT HOURS BELOW FREEZING, WIDESPREAD LOWS IN
THE TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW MORNING.
- LOOK FOR WARMER, MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER STARTING MID-WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 557 PM CST SUN DEC 14 2025
STRONG 1042 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER EASTERN IL THIS
EVENING, AND THE HIGH CENTER WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
OVERNIGHT AND SET UP TO OUR EAST BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. SO THIS
COLD NORTH WIND WILL BE REPLACED BY A WARMER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
DURING THE DAY TOMORROW. AS A RESULT, TEMPERATURES WILL START TO
WARM UP QUICKLY. UNTIL THEN, TONIGHT WILL MARK THE NADIR OF THIS
ARCTIC BLAST, AS TEMPERATURES SINK INTO THE LOW TEENS AND EVEN
SOME SINGLE DIGITS BY MORNING. THE CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON
TRACK, SO NO CHANGES ARE PLANNED FOR NOW.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1027 AM CST SUN DEC 14 2025
WITH ONLY A LITTLE OVER 10.5 DAYS UNTIL SANTA ARRIVES, MIDDLE TN IS
BEING TREATED LIKE WE'VE BEEN RELOCATED TO THE NORTH POLE.
TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS AT FORECAST TIME AND WITH WIND GUSTS OF 15
TO 25 MPH, IT'S BITTER OUT THERE. A FEW FOLKS HAVE EVEN BEEN TREATED
TO SOME SNOW THIS MORNING. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE BEING REPORTED ON
THE PLATEAU AND BANDING WEST OF I-65 ALLOWED SOME TO SEE FLAKES THIS
MORNING. WHAT CLOUDS ARE LEFT ARE DISSIPATING AND EVERYBODY SHOULD
BE IN FULL SUN IN A COUPLE OF HOURS. THIS WILL HELP TO MELT ANY SNOW
ON PLATEAU ROADWAYS AND WITH THE WIND BLOWING, ROADS SHOULD BE DRY
BEFORE THIS EVENING. THIS IS GOOD NEWS BECAUSE WHILE WINDS WILL
RELAX THIS EVENING, THE SURFACE RIDGE FROM CANADA THAT HAS BROUGHT
US THIS BONE-CHILLING AIR WILL CENTER ITSELF OVER THE TN VALLEY AND
ALLOW FOR MAXIMUM RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT. WHEN EVERYBODY GETS
UP TOMORROW, THERMOMETERS ACROSS ALL OF TN WILL EITHER BE IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS OR VERY LOW TEENS. BECAUSE OF ALL OF THE ABOVE, WE
WILL CONTINUE TO RUN THE COLD WEATHER ADVISORY THROUGH NOON
TOMORROW, WHEN TEMPERATURES TEMPERATURES ARE FINALLY EXPECTED TO
CLIMB BACK ABOVE FREEZING. ONLY 25 HOURS TO GO. PLEASE, IF YOU
HAVEN'T DONE SO ALREADY, BE SURE TO CHECK ON PEOPLE, PETS AND PIPES
BEFORE TONIGHT.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1027 AM CST SUN DEC 14 2025
AFTER NOON TOMORROW, TEMPERATURES WILL START TO MODERATE SLOWLY
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. HIGHS ON TUESDAY SHOULD BE CLOSE TO 50 AND BY
THURSDAY, MANY WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOW 60S.
AS FAR AS RAIN CHANCES, THE NBM IS FINALLY DEPICTING THE WEDNESDAY
MORNING RAIN I WAS TALKING ABOUT YESTERDAY. IT ISN'T MUCH, BUT A
COUPLE HUNDREDTHS SHOULD GET SQUEEZED OUT ACROSS THE MID-STATE. THE
BIGGER RAIN MAKER ISN'T UNTIL THURSDAY. SHOWERS WILL LIKELY START US
OFF THURSDAY MORNING AND THEN THURSDAY AFTERNOON, A FAIRLY INTENSE
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES, DRAGGING A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE TN AND OHIO VALLEYS. SHEAR VALUES ARE OFF THE CHART
WITH 55 KTS OF BULK SHEAR AND 400-500 HELICITY VALUES. TYPICAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR, BUT SO IS THE LACK OF SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY.
RIGHT NOW, THE NBM IS SUGGESTING ABOUT A 50% CHANCE MORE THAN 100
J/KG IN OUR FAR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. COUPLED WITH LESS THAN A 2%
CHANCE OF MORE THAN 250 J/KG IN THE SAME AREA, THE LIKELIHOOD OF
SEVERE WEATHER IS VERY LOW. THAT SAID, THESE PROBS ARE A TICK HIGHER
THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. BOTTOM LINE, LET'S ALL MONITOR THURSDAY AS WE GO
THROUGH THE WEEK. ALSO, QPF HAS TICKED UP AS WELL. RAINFALL TOTALS
ARE 0.50 TO 1 INCH WITH THIS THURSDAY SYSTEM NOW, WITH 0% PROBS OF
MORE THAN AN INCH.
I'D LIKE TO PROMISE A QUIET WEEKEND AHEAD, BUT THIS MAY NOT BE THE
CASE AS A SECOND SYSTEM COULD REAR ITS HEAD BY SATURDAY NIGHT OR
SUNDAY. A QUICK LOOK AT THICKNESS VALUES SUGGEST ALL RAIN WITH THIS
SYSTEM, BUT THERE'S LOTS OF TIME BETWEEN NOW AND THEN.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 529 PM CST SUN DEC 14 2025
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER EASTERN IL CONTINUES TO PUSH A COLD
NORTHERLY WIND INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE THIS EVENING. HOWEVER, THE
SURFACE RIDGE WILL SET UP EAST OF THE MID STATE BY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. THUS, WE CAN EXPECT A WIND SHIFT TO THE SW DURING THE
DAY MONDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE TAF PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 12 40 24 52 / 0 0 0 0
CLARKSVILLE 10 38 23 49 / 0 0 0 0
CROSSVILLE 9 39 23 48 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBIA 12 40 23 51 / 0 0 0 0
COOKEVILLE 10 38 23 48 / 0 0 0 0
JAMESTOWN 8 38 23 48 / 0 0 0 0
LAWRENCEBURG 11 40 22 50 / 0 0 0 0
MURFREESBORO 11 40 22 50 / 0 0 0 0
WAVERLY 10 37 23 48 / 0 0 0 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR TNZ005>011-
023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095.
UPDATE.......ROSE
SHORT TERM...UNGER
LONG TERM....UNGER
AVIATION.....ROSE
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