647  
FXUS64 KOHX 071728  
AFDOHX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN  
1228 PM CDT SUN AUG 7 2022  
   
..NEW AVIATION
 
 
   
UPDATE
 
 
ISSUED AT 1014 AM CDT SUN AUG 7 2022  
 
AS CONVECTION HAS NOT INITIATED YET, CURTAILED POPS BACK FOR NEXT  
HOUR OR TWO. TWEAKED CURRENT HOURLY TEMPERATURE, DEWPOINT, AND  
WIND SPEED/DIRECTION GRIDS BLENDING THEM WITH ASSOCIATED  
PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS  
GRIDDED VALUES. CURRENT REGIONAL TEMPERATURE TRENDS GENERALLY IN  
LINE WITH FORECASTED HIGHS. REMAINDER OF FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE  
ON TRACK.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
 
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)  
ISSUED AT 200 AM CDT SUN AUG 7 2022  
 
THE RADAR IS QUIET AFTER STAYING BUSY ON SATURDAY. TODAY LOOKS  
PRETTY SIMILAR WITH A NEBULOUS UPPER AIR PATTERN AND AMPLE  
MOISTURE SITTING AROUND. CONVECTIVE INITIATION SHOULD START AROUND  
LUNCH TIME WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS LINGERING THROUGH  
THE EVENING. PWAT VALUES WILL REMAIN AROUND 1.8" TO 2" WITH 10 KTS  
OF BULK SHEAR. DCAPE VALUES WILL MAX OUT AROUND MID AFTERNOON  
WITH AROUND 1000 J/KG. THIS MEANS PULSE STORMS WILL BE ABLE TO  
PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN WHICH COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING AS WELL  
AS ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS FROM WET MICROBURSTS. STORMS WILL  
BECOME LESS NUMEROUS AFTER SUNSET WITH THE RADAR LIKELY BEING  
CLEAN AFTER MIDNIGHT. MONDAY LOOKS LIKE A REPEAT FROM TODAY.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM
 
 
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)  
ISSUED AT 200 AM CDT SUN AUG 7 2022  
 
AMPLE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY  
WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS. WEAK TROUGHING  
INFLUENCES BEGIN TO REACH DOWN INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE ON TUESDAY  
WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW ON WEDNESDAY  
DRAGGING A SURFACE FRONT ALONG WITH IT. THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL  
OCCUR ON THURSDAY WITH LOWER HUMIDITY AND LOWER PRECIP CHANCES  
BEHIND IT. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY LOOK RELATIVELY PLEASANT FOR THIS  
TIME OF YEAR WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
(18Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT SUN AUG 7 2022  
 
PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF SCATTERED TSRA IN  
THE AREA. TSRA WILL BE AROUND THE AREA FROM NOW THROUGH 01Z AND  
COULD LEAD TO DECREASED FLIGHT CATEGORIES IF THEY MOVE DIRECTLY  
OVER TERMINAL.  
 
S/SW WINDS WILL BECOME MORE WSW TOMORROW. WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW  
10 KNOTS OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS, BUT BRIEF GUSTS CLOSER TO 25  
TO 30 KTS ARE POSSIBLE IF A THUNDERSTORMS PASSES NEARBY OR  
DIRECTLY OVER TERMINAL.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
NASHVILLE 74 92 74 90 / 40 50 30 70  
CLARKSVILLE 73 92 73 89 / 40 40 30 70  
CROSSVILLE 68 83 68 82 / 30 60 20 70  
COLUMBIA 72 91 72 90 / 30 50 30 70  
COOKEVILLE 71 86 70 85 / 30 50 30 70  
JAMESTOWN 67 84 68 83 / 30 60 20 70  
LAWRENCEBURG 72 89 71 87 / 40 50 30 70  
MURFREESBORO 72 91 72 89 / 40 50 30 70  
WAVERLY 72 92 72 89 / 30 40 40 70  
 

 
   
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  

 
 

 
 
UPDATE.......JB WRIGHT  
SHORT TERM...REAGAN  
LONG TERM....REAGAN  
AVIATION.....ADCOCK  
 
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