323
FXUS64 KOHX 121716
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1116 AM CST MON JAN 12 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1114 AM CST MON JAN 12 2026
- GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.
- MEDIUM TO HIGH RAIN CHANCES RETURN WEDNESDAY. A CHANGEOVER TO
LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
MEDIUM CHANCE FOR LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE PLATEAU.
- BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1016 AM CST MON JAN 12 2026
THOUGH WE STARTED OFF QUITE FROSTY THIS MORNING WITH AREAWIDE
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 20S, SURFACE RIDGING IS BUILDING INTO THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY, PROMOTING SUNNY SKIES AND WARMING TEMPERATURES.
THIS RIDGE WILL HOLD INFLUENCE OVER OUR WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY.
HIGHS NEAR 50 TODAY, WARMING INTO THE 50S-LOW 60S BY TUESDAY WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF OUR NEXT DISTURBANCE.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1016 AM CST MON JAN 12 2026
BY WEDNESDAY, TROUGHING ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED AS A SERIES
OF DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
FILTER INTO MIDDLE TN. THESE DISTURBANCES WILL BRING MOISTURE BACK
INTO THE AREA WITH HIGH RAIN CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE DAY
WEDNESDAY. A DEEPENING LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL PUSH A STRONG
COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE MAJORITY OF THE
RAIN IS COMING TO AN END. TEMPERATURES WITH THE INCOMING FRONT
WILL BE STARKLY COLDER, QUICKLY DELIVERING WELL BELOW-FREEZING
TEMPERATURES TO THE ENTIRE AREA. AS THIS CLASH OF COLD AIR AND
MOISTURE OCCURS, A CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW WILL OCCUR.
ENSEMBLES AND THE LAST FEW RUNS OF THE NBM HAVE BACKED OFF ON
POTENTIAL SNOW AMOUNTS DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE. THE NBM NOW GIVES
A 20% CHANCE OF 1" ACROSS THE PLATEAU, DOWN FROM 30-50%
YESTERDAY. PROBABILITIES FOR A HALF-INCH ACROSS THE PLATEAU ARE A
LITTLE HIGHER, AROUND 50%. AS FOR THE REMAINDER OF MIDDLE TN,
ESPECIALLY WEST OF I-65, MEASURABLE SNOW (0.1" OR GREATER)
APPEARS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME. STILL, THINGS COULD CHANGE, SO BE
SURE TO STAY TUNED FOR FORECAST UPDATES THIS WEEK.
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM, THINGS WILL BE CHILLY, BUT DRY THROUGH FRIDAY. A
CLIPPER SYSTEM COULD BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
AREA THIS WEEKEND, BUT PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVERALL REMAIN LOW AT
THIS TIME, LESS THAN 30%. THE BIG IMPACT RIGHT NOW FOR THIS
WEEKEND WILL BE THE COLD. STARTING THURSDAY, OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
BE IN THE TEENS TO LOW 20S EACH NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE AFTERNOONS, BUT IT WILL STILL BE COOL
WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 30S IN THE 40S THIS WEEKEND. THE "WARMEST"
DAY WILL BE FRIDAY WHEN TEMPERATURES MAY REACH INTO THE MID 40S.
OTHERWISE, IT'S GOING TO BE A COLD WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1114 AM CST MON JAN 12 2026
FANTASTIC FLYING CONDITIONS WITH VFR AND LIGHT (LESS THAN 10 KTS)
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 50 33 60 43 / 0 0 0 60
CLARKSVILLE 49 33 60 43 / 0 0 0 50
CROSSVILLE 45 27 54 36 / 0 0 0 40
COLUMBIA 50 30 58 41 / 0 0 0 60
COOKEVILLE 45 30 54 38 / 0 0 0 60
JAMESTOWN 44 29 55 37 / 0 0 0 60
LAWRENCEBURG 49 30 57 39 / 0 0 0 60
MURFREESBORO 49 29 58 40 / 0 0 0 60
WAVERLY 49 33 58 41 / 0 0 0 60
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...BAGGETT
LONG TERM....BAGGETT
AVIATION.....UNGER
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