579
FXUS64 KOHX 241115
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
515 AM CST MON NOV 24 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 512 AM CST MON NOV 24 2025
- A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 A.M. MONDAY FOR
NORTHERN AND NORTHWEST MIDDLE TENNESSEE.
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. THERE IS A VERY LOW CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS EARLY
TUESDAY, MAINLY SOUTH OF I-40.
- EXPECT DRIER AND MUCH COOLER WEATHER WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH WIDESPREAD SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHTS.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 935 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2025
A DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NORTHERN AND NORTHWEST
PORTIONS OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE UNTIL 10 A.M. MONDAY. A SWATH OF
DENSE FOG AND LOW STRATUS HAS CREPT INTO NORTHWEST MIDDLE
TENNESSEE, AND IS LIKELY TO EXPAND FURTHER INTO THE MID STATE.
WIDESPREAD VISIBILITIES OF 1/4 MILE OR LESS ARE EXPECTED IN THE
ADVISORY AREA. SYNOPTICALLY, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND AN UPPER
RIDGE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY,
WHICH WILL SET US UP WITH SOME RETURN FLOW JUST AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT IS CURRENTLY GATHERING STEAM
OVER THE GREAT PLAINS. AS THIS SYSTEM TRACKS TOWARD THE EAST, WE
CAN EXPECT SHOWERS TO BEGIN SPREADING INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE LATE
TOMORROW AND CERTAINLY TOMORROW EVENING. SOME CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT IS ALSO POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY
AS A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH PROVIDES SOME ADDITIONAL FORCING. THERE IS
A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS FOR EARLY TUESDAY IN AREAS SOUTH
OF I-40, BUT IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SORT OF WIND
THREAT WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE. QPF TOTALS FROM
MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING RANGE FROM LESS THAN 3/4"
NEAR THE TN/KY LINE TO MORE THAN 1" NEAR THE TN/AL LINE, AND THE
19Z NBM IS GIVING A 64% PROBABILITY OF AT LEAST 1" OF RAINFALL AT
BNA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE ACTUAL COLD FROPA IS LIKELY TO
OCCUR LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING, WITH SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES FILTERING IN BEHIND THE BOUNDARY.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 935 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2025
TEMPERATURES ARE GOING TO NOSEDIVE JUST IN TIME FOR THANKSGIVING.
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES THURSDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY FALL INTO THE
MID 20S TO LOW 30S, AND IN THE 20S ACROSS ALL OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE
FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE WE START TO WARM BACK UP. THE NEXT ACTIVE
WEATHER SYSTEM LOOKS TO BRING RAIN TO MIDDLE TENNESSEE BEGINNING
SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT, AND CONTINUING INTO THE FOLLOWING
WEEK. AT THIS TIME, THE 19Z NBM IS HINTING AT A SIGNIFICANT, DAYS-
LONG RAINFALL EVENT THAT DEFINITELY WARRANTS KEEPING AN EYE ON.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 512 AM CST MON NOV 24 2025
VLIFR CATS HAVE INUNDATED MOST OF OUR TERMINALS THIS MORNING.
THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL 14-15Z WHEN CATS SHOULD START
TO IMPROVE. VFR SHOULD RETURN BEFORE 16Z. LOOK FOR SHOWERS TO
START NEARING CKV/BNA/MQY AROUND 00-02Z THIS EVENING WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS BECOMING GUSTY BY 06-08Z. LOWER CIGS SHOULD HOLD
OFF UNTIL AFTER 07Z/TUE WITH THE RAIN.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 69 58 71 48 / 20 90 80 40
CLARKSVILLE 66 56 70 43 / 40 90 80 30
CROSSVILLE 64 52 63 44 / 0 80 100 90
COLUMBIA 70 57 72 46 / 20 90 90 40
COOKEVILLE 67 54 66 46 / 10 90 100 70
JAMESTOWN 64 52 65 45 / 0 80 100 70
LAWRENCEBURG 71 57 70 48 / 10 90 100 40
MURFREESBORO 71 57 70 48 / 20 90 100 40
WAVERLY 66 54 69 43 / 40 90 80 30
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR TNZ005>011-
023>031-033-056-057-059-062.
SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM....ROSE
AVIATION.....UNGER
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page