022
FXUS64 KOHX 131133
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
633 AM CDT MON JUL 13 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 631 AM CDT MON JUL 13 2026
- MEDIUM TO HIGH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY
WITH HIGHEST CHANCES EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT IS VERY LOW.
- RELATIVELY DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK,
BUT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL CONTINUE.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1031 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2026
THE SHOWER COVERAGE HAS DECREASED WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING
BUT A FEW SHOWERS REMAIN MAINLY ALONG THE PLATEAU. THIS IS DUE TO A
SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE AREA. THE
UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL SINK SOUTHWARD ON MONDAY WITH THE ELONGATED
SURFACE LOW TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES LOWER IN
THE WEST (10-25%) BUT RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN MEDIUM TO HIGH (60-
80%) ALONG THE PLATEAU. LIKE TODAY, ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE LATE IN
THE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN DECREASE AFTER DARK. I DON'T
EXPECT ANY SEVERE STORMS, BUT RAIN COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES WHICH
COULD CAUSE SOME MINOR PONDING ISSUES IN ISOLATED SPOTS ALONG THE
PLATEAU.
BY TUESDAY THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BECOME A CLOSED UPPER LOW AND
RETROGRADE BACK TO THE WEST CENTERED SOUTH OF THE AREA. THIS WILL
SHIFT THE HIGHER POPS ALONG THE TN/AL BORDER WITH LOWER CHANCES THE
FURTHER NORTH YOU GO. TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE
BEARABLE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1031 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2026
TO START THE LONG TERM, THE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WILL ELONGATE TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL HELP
START BRINGING DOWN THE RAIN CHANCES AND INCREASE THE
TEMPERATURES. MOISTURE WILL STILL BE DEEP ENOUGH WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY TO SUPPORT SOME MEDIUM DIURNAL SHOWER AND STORMS CHANCES
OVER THE SOUTHWEST WITH LOWER RAIN CHANCES FURTHER NORTH AND EAST.
THE DIURNAL RAIN AND STORMS CHANCES WILL BE LOW BY FRIDAY AND
CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S.
CONDITIONS WILL BE HUMID THROUGHOUT THE WEEK AND WITH THOSE 90S
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK, HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL START CLIMBING
TO AROUND 100-105.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 631 AM CDT MON JUL 13 2026
LOW STRATUS WILL PERSIST ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE FOR A FEW HOURS
THIS MORNING, SO TAFS GENERALLY REFLECT AN IFR TO MVFR TO VFR
TRENDS ON CIGS THROUGH 16Z. WINDS WILL PREVAIL NE TODAY AT 5-10
KTS. AFTERNOON SHRA AND TS IS FORECAST, THOUGH TS SHOULD REMAIN
MORE ISOLATED SO PROB30S WERE NOT UPGRADED TO TEMPOS. TAFS REMAIN
VFR THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD BUT THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY FOG
OVERNIGHT, PARTICULARLY NEAR SRB AND CSV. WINDS WILL BECOME
EASTERLY TOMORROW WITH AT LEAST ISO CONVECTION.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 86 70 87 71 / 50 30 40 10
CLARKSVILLE 86 70 87 70 / 20 10 20 10
CROSSVILLE 79 65 81 65 / 70 20 40 10
COLUMBIA 85 69 85 69 / 60 30 60 20
COOKEVILLE 82 67 84 68 / 70 20 30 10
JAMESTOWN 81 65 84 66 / 70 20 30 0
LAWRENCEBURG 82 68 83 68 / 80 40 60 20
MURFREESBORO 85 69 86 70 / 70 30 40 10
WAVERLY 85 69 85 69 / 30 10 40 10
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...REAGAN
LONG TERM....REAGAN
AVIATION.....SIZEMORE
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