190
FXUS64 KOHX 212246
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
446 PM CST MON JAN 21 2019
UPDATE
FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
DISCUSSION
THE MAJOR ADJUSTMENT TO THE SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS FROM THE
MORNING ISSUANCE IS THE ISSUANCE OF A WIND ADVISORY PRODUCT FOR
ALL OF THE MID STATE TUE AFTERNOON THRU THE MID MORNING HRS ON
WED. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN PLAINS AS TUE MORNING PROGRESSES WITH A STRONG SFC
PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPING. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES EWD, THIS
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE THRU TUE NIGHT AND AT
LEAST CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE SFC FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED DURING
THE MORNING HRS ON WED. ALTHOUGH MAYBE ANOTHER MODEL RUN COULD
BE NEEDED TO PROVIDE THE BEST CLARIFICATION, LATEST PREFERRED
NAM/GFS SOLUTIONS DEPICTING VERY WELL THE POTENTIAL OF WIND
SPEEDS WITHIN THE FIRST THOUSANDS OF FEET OR SO OFF THE SFC
50KTS PLUS SUSTAINED DURING THIS ENTIRE TIME PERIOD, AND IT IS
LIKELY THAT SOME WIND GUSTS WILL MIX DOWN TO THE SFC. ALTHOUGH
ONE COULD ARGUE THAT AN SPS MIGHT BE APPROPRIATE HERE AND WAIT
FOR ANOTHER SET OF MODEL RUNS AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED, BECAUSE
MID STATE RESIDENTS COMING OFF OF A HOLIDAY WEEKEND, AND TO GIVE
EVERYONE AS MUCH HEADS UP AS POSSIBLE, JUST WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED
AN ADVISORY FOR THE MID STATE REGION DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
RAIN SHWRS SHOULD MOVE INTO THE MID STATE REGION LATE AFTERNOON
WEST AND SPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE MID STATE BY TUE AFTERNOON.
EVEN THOUGH MOCLR SKIES EXPECTED TONIGHT, ALTHOUGH OVERNIGHT
TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING, THEY WILL BE CLOSER TO SEASONAL
NORMAL VALUES. THESE BREEZY SOUTH WINDS EXPECTED AS TUE AFTERNOON
PROGRESSES WILL RESULT IN TUE AFTERNOON HIGHS SOARING ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMAL VALUES INTO THE MID 50S FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF
THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU REGION, AND NEAR SEASONAL NORMAL VALUES
ACROSS THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU REGION IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.
OTHERWISE, NOT A LOT OF CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS MORNING FORECAST
REASONING TO THE SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS WITH THIS AFTERNOON
ISSUANCE. SEASONABLY WARM TEMP WILL CONTINUE TUE NIGHT THRU WED.
AS COLDER AIR BUILDS IN BEHIND THIS SFC FRONTAL PASSAGE, SOME
POTENTIAL OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL ON WED NIGHT ACROSS THE MID
STATE REGION WILL BE POSSIBLE, BUT UNCERTAINTY IN AMOUNTS
CONTINUE. LOW TEMPS WED NIGHT LOOK TO FALL BACK INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 20S. A RETURN BACK TO SEASONABLY COLD CONDITIONS IS
EXPECTED THU THRU THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WORK WEEK AS ONCE
AGAIN COLD AIR INFLUENCES TO OUR NORTH BUILD INTO THE MID STATE
REGION. SOME OF THE COLDEST TEMPS AND WIND CHILLS WILL LIKELY BE
FRI MORNING. NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE OVER THE WEEKEND
WITH A COUPLE OF SYSTEMS IN THIS PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL NWLY FLOW
REGIME MOVING ACROSS THE MID STATE REGION. THIS WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF LIGHT SHWRS ALONG WITH MIXED TO FROZEN PRECIPITATION
BACK TO THE MID STATE REGION OVER THIS TIME PERIOD. SOME RAINFALL
AND WINTRY ACCUMULATIONS AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. HOWEVER, HARD TO
PINPOINT ACTUAL AMOUNTS OF EITHER AS OF THIS TIME.
AVIATION
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.
VFR THROUGH THIS TAF CYCLE.
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS, ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF TO
THE EAST COAST AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS. IN
BETWEEN, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE. LIGHT ESE WINDS
TONIGHT WILL BECOME STRONGER AND GUSTY FROM THE SOUTH ON TUESDAY.
GUSTS OVER 30KT WILL BE COMMON AFTER 18Z. SKIES WILL FEATURE
SCT-BKN CIRRUS CLOUDS THROUGH 18Z, THEN A CLOUD DECK AROUND 5KFT
WILL DEVELOP.
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 9 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
BEDFORD-CANNON-CHEATHAM-CLAY-COFFEE-CUMBERLAND-DAVIDSON-DE KALB-
DICKSON-FENTRESS-GILES-GRUNDY-HICKMAN-HOUSTON-HUMPHREYS-JACKSON-
LAWRENCE-LEWIS-MACON-MARSHALL-MAURY-MONTGOMERY-OVERTON-PERRY-
PICKETT-PUTNAM-ROBERTSON-RUTHERFORD-SMITH-STEWART-SUMNER-
TROUSDALE-VAN BUREN-WARREN-WAYNE-WHITE-WILLIAMSON-WILSON.
DISCUSSION......31
AVIATION........13
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