165
FXUS64 KOHX 011701
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1201 PM CDT WED APR 1 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1155 AM CDT WED APR 1 2026
- WARM WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY, THEN
COOLER TO START NEXT WEEK.
- LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH FRIDAY,
INCREASING TO HIGH CHANCES BY LATE SATURDAY.
- THE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS OR FLOODING IS VERY LOW.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1155 AM CDT WED APR 1 2026
IT'S ANOTHER WARM AND HUMID DAY OUT WITH TEMPERATURES ALREADY NEAR
80 DEGREES AT 11AM. A WEAK BOUNDARY HAS DEVELOPED SOUTHEAST OF
NASHVILLE, STRETCHING FROM N AL UP INTO EASTERN KY. THIS BOUNDARY
HAS SPARKED CONVECTIVE INITIATION WITH PULSE-TYPE THUNDERSTORMS THAT
HAVE COLLAPSED JUST ABOUT AS QUICKLY AS THEY'VE DEVELOPED. THIS
MORNING'S SOUNDING REVEALED A TALL, SKINNY CAPE PROFILE, SO THESE
TYPE OF THUNDERSTORMS CHECK OUT. WITH THAT, WE ARE NOT
ANTICIPATING SEVERE STORMS TODAY. AND IF YOU'RE ONE OF THE LUCKY
ONES GETTING RAIN, REJOICE! SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY WILL DWINDLE
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND WE WILL BE LEFT WITH TEMPS IN
THE 60S OVERNIGHT.
THURSDAY'S FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO TODAY'S EXCEPT IT WILL BE A TOUCH
WARMER WITH HIGHS NEAR RECORD VALUE IN NASHVILLE. STORM CHANCES LOOK
LOWER TOMORROW AS THE EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR
SOUTHEAST PUSHES HIGHER HEIGHTS OVER THE AREA, LIMITING CONVECTION.
STILL, LOW CHANCES < 20% EXIST FOR SCATTERED STORMS PRIMARILY DURING
THE PEAK HEATING OF THE AFTERNOON. WE'LL SEE WINDS PICK UP TOMORROW,
TOO, AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHES WEST, BRINGING A TIGHTER
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA. GUSTS BETWEEN 30-35 MPH
WILL BE LIKELY.
WITH REGARDS TO TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR NASHVILLE, COPYING THIS
IN FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR INQUIRING MINDS:
BNA NORMALS LOW 45 HIGH 69
RECORDS 4/1 86 IN 1963
4/2 87 IN 2012
4/3 86 IN 2012
4/4 87 IN 2025
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1155 AM CDT WED APR 1 2026
A WEAKENING FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT,
BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW RAIN AND STORM CHANCES THROUGH THE
DAY FRIDAY. IT MAY VERY WELL LOSE ITS STEAM BEFORE MAKING IT TO
MIDDLE TN, SO WE ONCE AGAIN DO NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH RAINFALL. THE
PRIMARY CONCERN FOR THIS WEEKEND WILL BE SATURDAY WHEN A STRONG
COLD FRONT PUSHES A LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE AREA.
THE BETTER DYNAMICS ARE WELL OFF TO THE NORTH, SO THIS WILL LIMIT
OUR SEVERE POTENTIAL OVERALL, HOWEVER A FEW STRONG GUSTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE LINE AS BULK SHEAR INCREASES OVER 30 KTS. THIS
FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA BY DAYBREAK EASTER SUNDAY, THOUGH SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS COULD BE AROUND OVER THE PLATEAU. OTHERWISE,
EASTER SUNDAY WILL FEATURE BREEZY AND COOL CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS
IN THE 60S. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS SYSTEM REMAIN UNIMPRESSIVE,
GENERALLY 1" OR LESS.
MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL TRANSITION NORTHWESTERLY, STREAMING DRIER
INTO THE AREA FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK AND KEEPING
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 624 AM CDT WED APR 1 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST THIS TAF CYCLE. LOW RAIN/STORM CHANCES FOR
ALL TERMINALS OUTSIDE OF CKV THIS AFTERNOON, STILL TOO LOW TO
WARRANT A TEMPO. TSRA CHANCES LOOK GREATEST AT CSV AND SRB, BUT
STORMS WILL BE OF THE POP-UP VARIETY AND LIKELY SHORT-LIVED.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS
THROUGH THE DAY, RELAXING AFTER 00Z.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 84 64 86 67 / 40 0 10 20
CLARKSVILLE 85 66 86 67 / 20 0 10 30
CROSSVILLE 77 59 80 61 / 50 10 20 10
COLUMBIA 82 63 85 65 / 30 0 10 10
COOKEVILLE 78 62 81 64 / 50 10 20 10
JAMESTOWN 78 60 81 63 / 60 10 20 10
LAWRENCEBURG 81 62 83 65 / 40 0 10 10
MURFREESBORO 83 64 86 66 / 40 0 10 10
WAVERLY 83 65 84 67 / 20 0 10 30
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...BAGGETT
LONG TERM....BAGGETT
AVIATION.....BAGGETT
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