164
FXUS64 KOHX 130000
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
700 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2026
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 653 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2026
- ELEVATED FIRE CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO WIND GUSTS UP TO
25 MPH AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY DROPPING TO 25-35%.
- CONTINUED UNSEASONAL WARMTH THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.
- LOW TO MEDIUM (<50%) RAIN/STORM CHANCES TONIGHT INTO MONDAY,
BUT AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT. MEDIUM RAIN CHANCES
FORECAST ON THURSDAY (30-60%).
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 653 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2026
IT'S BEEN A WARM AND BREEZY DAY ACROSS THE AREA BUT THE GUSTS HAVE
DECREASED TO 15-20 MPH INSTEAD OF THE 25-30 MPH WE SAW THIS
AFTERNOON. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF
THE UPPER RIDGING TONIGHT INTO MONDAY BRINGING SOME SCATTERED
LIGHT SHOWERS INTO THE AREA. THE WEST AND NORTHWEST WILL BE
FAVORED IN REGARDS TO RAIN CHANCES. MONDAY WILL NOT BE AS WARM
WITH A LITTLE MORE CLOUD COVER. HIGHS WILL BE ABOUT 3-5 DEGREES
COOLER, STILL WELL ABOVE NORMAL.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1145 AM CDT SUN APR 12 2026
A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE IS VERY APPARENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND
MESOANALYSIS TODAY WHICH IS SITTING OVER THE ENTIRE SOUTHEAST.
THIS COINCIDES WITH AN EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST
COAST. DRY AIR BEING EVIDENT ON OUR OR MORNING RAOB IS TEAMING UP
WITH A PRESSURE GRADIENT TO BRING ELEVATED FIRE CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON. RHS ARE FORECAST TO MIX DOWN INTO THE 25-30% RANGE WITH
GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH. FUELS ARE ALSO DRY DUE TO EXPANDING DROUGHT.
OUTDOOR BURNING IS HIGHLY DISCOURAGED TODAY AND TONIGHT.
OUR FORECAST HIGH FOR BNA IS JUST A COUPLE DEGREES SHORT OF THE
RECORD, BUT WITH DRY AIR AND A SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZE, IT'S
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE WE AT LEAST TIE THE RECORD OF 88 DEGREES SET
BACK IN 1906.
A LITTLE HOPE FOR MOISTURE/RAIN WILL ENTER THE AREA TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW MORNING AS WE GET A GLANCING BLOW FROM A SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCE AND WEAKENING FRONT/CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW. LATEST
GUIDANCE HAS INCREASED RAIN CHANCES, THROUGH RAIN AMOUNTS REMAIN
VERY LOW, GENERALLY LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH. CLOUDS/MOISTURE
IN THE AREA TOMORROW WILL BRING A LITTLE AFTERNOON HEAT RELIEF AT
LEAST.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1145 AM CDT SUN APR 12 2026
AFTER A LITTLE RELIEF FROM HEAT AND DRYNESS ON MONDAY, WE'LL BE
BACK INTO VERY DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
WE'LL CERTAINLY BE FLIRTING WITH RECORD HIGHS AT BNA THOSE DAYS
WHICH ARE 89 AND 87 DEGREES RESPECTIVELY.
A DECENT SIGNAL FOR RAIN & STORMS STILL PERSISTS ON MEDIUM-RANGE
GUIDANCE ON THURSDAY. THIS APPEARS TO BE A MORE ROBUST SHORTWAVE
TROUGH THAT WILL BRING A FRONT/MOISTURE AXIS INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE
DESPITE THE RESISTING SYNOPTIC RIDGE. POPS ARE GENERALLY 30-60%
AND RAIN AMOUNTS AROUND 0.25" OR LESS ARE IN THE FORECAST. HIGHEST
AMOUNTS ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED WEST OF I-65. THIS ISN'T MEANINGFUL
TO THE OVERALL DROUGHT, BUT AT LEAST ANOTHER DAY WITH SOME RELIEF
FROM HEAT AND DRYNESS.
SYNOPTIC RIDGING WILL REMAIN FAIRLY PROMINENT THROUGH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WITH CONTINUED UNSEASONAL WARMTH AS A RESULT. HOWEVER, A
SIGNAL FOR ANOTHER COLD FRONT AND WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAINFALL
REMAINS DEPICTED ON LATEST MEDIUM-RANGE GUIDANCE/ENSEMBLES THIS
WEEKEND, MAINLY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. FINGERS
CROSSED.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 550 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2026
WE WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL BUILD IN OVERNIGHT AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
TOMORROW MORNING. A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL BRING A LOW (<30%) CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE AREA BETWEEN 10
AND 16Z. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME 6 TO 12 KNOTS
OVERNIGHT, WE WILL SEE LLWS 22040KT DEVELOP BETWEEN 03 AND 10Z.
SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE AGAIN AFTER 16Z.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 65 82 65 87 / 30 40 10 10
CLARKSVILLE 67 82 66 87 / 50 60 20 10
CROSSVILLE 60 77 60 82 / 10 20 0 10
COLUMBIA 63 82 63 86 / 20 30 10 10
COOKEVILLE 62 77 62 82 / 10 30 10 10
JAMESTOWN 61 77 61 82 / 10 30 10 10
LAWRENCEBURG 62 81 63 84 / 10 20 10 0
MURFREESBORO 64 81 63 87 / 20 30 10 10
WAVERLY 65 82 67 87 / 40 50 10 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE.......REAGAN
SHORT TERM...SIZEMORE
LONG TERM....SIZEMORE
AVIATION.....MUELLER
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