479
FXUS64 KOHX 020521
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1221 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1216 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2026
- DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS & THUNDERSTORMS WILL THROUGH THIS
UPCOMING WEEK WITH THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY.
- COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY MID-WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1105 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2026
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW ARE SITTING OVER THE OH
VALLEY PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH MIDDLE TN. WE WILL SEE SOME
COOLER AIR FILTER IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND LOWS TONIGHT WILL
FALL INTO THE MID 60S. SLIGHTLY LOWER DEW POINTS WILL ALSO MOVE IN
BUT OVERALL THEY WILL REMAIN HUMID. WITH RECENT RAIN SOME PATCHY
FOG IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT BUT OVERALL THE CHANCES ARE LOOKING LOW.
THE TROUGH AXIS WILL DIG DOWN TOWARDS DAYBREAK AND THAT WILL BRING
A LOW STATUS LAYER OF CLOUDS WITH IT AND A LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW
SHOWERS.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL THEN BECOME A CLOSED OFF LOW OVER
MIDDLE TN DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AND WILL GET CUT OFF FROM THE
MAIN FLOW INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK. THIS IS GOING TO KEEP
LOW TO MEDIUM RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY INTO THE
EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. THE CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED TO THE
AFTERNOONS AND EARLY EVENINGS WHEN THERE IS WEAK INSTABILITY. CAPE
PROFILES ARE TALL AND THIN AND OVERALL THAT WILL LIMIT THE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES KEEPING THINGS MAINLY SHOWERS. HIGHS SUNDAY
AND MONDAY WILL BE COOLER ONLY REACHING THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1105 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2026
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN OVER MIDDLE TN ON TUESDAY KEEPING
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. THE HIGHER CHANCES WILL FAVOR THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE AREA. CAPE PROFILES WILL REMAIN SIMILAR KEEPING THE
THUNDER CHANCES OVERALL LOW. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL GET SWEPT
BACK INTO THE FLOW ON WEDNESDAY AS A TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES. LOW RAIN CHANCES WILL LINGER OVER THE PLATEAU WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WEAK TROUGHING THEN LINGERS OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL KEEP LOW SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE FORECAST. CAPE VALUES WILL INCREASE
AS THE WEEK GOES ON AND THAT WILL INCREASE THE THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES BUT WE WILL LACK SHEAR KEEPING THE CHANCE FOR STRONG
STORMS VERY LOW. HIGHS GRADUALLY WARM THROUGHOUT THE WEEK WARMING
BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S BY MID-WEEK AND INTO THE UPPER 80S
TO LOWER 90S BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1216 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2026
STRATOCU WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND
LINGER FOR THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. CIGS WILL DROP TO MVFR AT
BNA/MQY/CKV AND THERE IS A MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCE CIGS DROP TO IFR
AT CSV/SRB. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP AFTER 18Z WITH THE
HIGHEST PROBABILITIES AT BNA/MQY/CKV. INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED
SO ONLY INCLUDED PROB30 -SHRA. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SW/W
DURING THE TAF PERIOD AROUND 7 KTS OR LESS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 82 62 85 63 / 60 30 30 10
CLARKSVILLE 80 68 85 67 / 80 30 10 0
CROSSVILLE 80 65 80 64 / 40 30 60 10
COLUMBIA 83 68 86 68 / 60 40 40 10
COOKEVILLE 80 67 81 66 / 50 40 50 10
JAMESTOWN 81 66 81 65 / 50 30 50 10
LAWRENCEBURG 82 67 84 67 / 50 30 50 10
MURFREESBORO 84 69 85 68 / 50 30 50 10
WAVERLY 79 67 84 67 / 70 30 20 10
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...MUELLER
LONG TERM....MUELLER
AVIATION.....REAGAN
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