508
FXUS64 KOHX 042345
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
645 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2026
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 642 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2026
- SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU
THROUGH THURSDAY.
- SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WHOLE
AREA THIS WEEKEND. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED BUT HEAVY RAIN
IS POSSIBLE.
- SEASONAL TEMPERATURES. AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES NEAR 100 THIS
WEEKEND.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 642 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2026
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SET UP OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE STATE
AND THE SOUTHEAST US. THIS HAS BROUGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY TO THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
DIMINISH QUICKLY AS THE SUN SETS AND WE WILL SEE DRY CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR SOME PATCHY FOG MAINLY IN THE
AREAS THAT SAW SOME RAIN TODAY. LOWS TONIGHT WILL STAY A BIT
WARMER THAN THE LAST FEW NIGHTS ONLY FALLING INTO THE UPPER 60S TO
AROUND 70.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1110 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2026
NO MAJOR PATTERN CHANGES ARE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY AS
BIG EAST TO WEST DIFFERENCES CONTINUE. THE PLATEAU WILL
EXPERIENCE MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS
EACH DAY WHILE AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF I-65 WILL HAVE VERY LOW
RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL
AREA-WIDE.
THE HIGH RAIN CHANCES IN OUR EASTERN COUNTIES ARE THE RESULT OF AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED OVER NORTH GA. OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, THE LOW PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY OPEN UP AS IT
LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO THE PREVAILING CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY. THIS WILL KEEP AN AXIS OF DEEP MOISTURE OVER OUR EASTERN
COUNTIES. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A FEW STORMS IN
THE HEAT OF THE DAYTIME HOURS, BUT CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER. MUCH DRIER AIR IN PLACE OVER OUR
WESTERN COUNTIES WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
OTHERWISE, CLEARING SKIES AT NIGHT WILL BRING FAVORABLE FOG
CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF OUR AREA.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1110 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2026
AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND, THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL GET SWEPT
AWAY AND OUR WX WILL BE INFLUENCED BY A BERMUDA HIGH ALONG WITH A
SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES. THIS PATTERN WILL BRING SLIGHTLY
WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ALONG WITH AREA-WIDE CHANCES FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. DEW POINTS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 70S,
PUSHING AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES OVER 100, EXCEPT FOR THE
PLATEAU. CAPE VALUES WILL INCREASE HELPING TO FUEL STORMS, BUT
SHEAR AND LOW LEVEL FORCING WILL BE GENERALLY WEAK. THIS WILL KEEP
THE SEVERE THREAT LOW, BUT HEAVY RAIN WILL BE LIKELY WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS.
WE WON'T SEE ANY MAJOR CHANGES IN THE WEATHER PATTERN AS WE HEAD
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES
WILL WEAKEN AND THAT WILL ALLOW A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE WEST TO BUILD EAST SOME. THIS WILL PUSH HIGHS INTO THE LOW TO
MID 90S WITH AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES ABOVE 100. RAIN CHANCES
WILL COME DOWN SOME AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR EAST FLATTENS
AND PUSHES SOUTH BUT STILL COULD SEE A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 627 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2026
SRB & CSV: CONVECTION IS GRADUALLY DECREASING ACROSS THE EASTERN
SITES AND SHOULD WANE BY ~02Z. SCT TO BKN VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED
EARLY EVENING BEFORE WINDS CALM OVERNIGHT. PATCHY FOG IS FORECAST
ONCE AGAIN WHICH COULD LEAD TO IFR VIS 08-12Z. BOTH SITES SHOULD
EXPERIENCE ADDITIONAL SHRA AND ISO TS TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
BNA, MQY, CKV: THESE SITES REMAIN ON THE DRIER SIDE THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH LIGHT N WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS. WINDS MAY BECOME
MORE VARIABLE TOMORROW AND ISO SHRA IS FORECAST NEAR BNA AND MQY
DURING THE AFTERNOON, BUT PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW FOR A PROB30.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 68 90 71 92 / 0 30 10 20
CLARKSVILLE 68 90 71 92 / 0 10 10 0
CROSSVILLE 65 83 66 84 / 20 70 20 60
COLUMBIA 69 90 71 93 / 10 40 10 10
COOKEVILLE 68 85 68 86 / 20 40 10 40
JAMESTOWN 67 84 67 85 / 20 60 20 60
LAWRENCEBURG 68 87 70 90 / 10 50 10 20
MURFREESBORO 70 90 71 92 / 10 40 10 20
WAVERLY 68 90 70 91 / 0 10 10 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE.......MUELLER
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION.....SIZEMORE
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