856
FXUS64 KOHX 111809
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
109 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 103 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
- A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE
UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY.
- THERE'S A "SLIGHT RISK" (LEVEL 2 OF 5) FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DAMAGING
WINDS ARE THE MAIN CONCERN.
- DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK, BUT WITH ISOLATED AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1015 AM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
THE ACTIVE, MOIST PATTERN PERSISTS ACROSS MIDDLE TN TODAY WITH A
CONTINUED FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY. A SLOW-MOVING
BOUNDARY AND EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES WILL SUPPORT TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, PARTICULARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THERE IS A LOW TO MEDIUM SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WITH THESE
STORMS. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS REMAIN THE PRIMARY CONCERN, WITH A
FEW STRONGER STORMS POSSIBLY PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING. INSTABILITY WILL BUILD WITH DAYTIME HEATING IN THIS
HUMID AIRMASS (PWATS OF 2+ INCHES), AND SHEAR PROFILES SUPPORT
ORGANIZED CLUSTERS OR BOWING SEGMENTS. WHILE NOT A WIDESPREAD
MAJOR SEVERE EVENT, LOCALIZED STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS
WILL HEIGHTEN FLASH FLOODING RISKS, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT HAVE
ALREADY SEEN SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL RECENTLY. THE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED NATURE OF STORMS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL GIVE WAY TO
BETTER STORM COVERAGE THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HIGHS TODAY LOOK TO TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S, WITH HEAT
INDICES NEAR OR ABOVE 100 (MAINLY ALONG AND W OF I-65). OVERNIGHT
AND INTO SUNDAY, LINGERING STORMS ARE LIKELY, MAINTAINING THE
FLOOD THREAT WITH ADDITIONAL LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1015 AM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BEGINS TO SHIFT EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A BROAD
RIDGE BUILDS WESTWARD, HELPING TO CUT OFF OR WEAKEN THE INFLUENCE
OF THE LOW OVER THE TN VALLEY. A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL DRIFT
SLOWLY SOUTH, KEEPING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES
ALIVE, ESPECIALLY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED
FLOODING COULD STILL OCCUR WHERE STORMS TRAIN OR REPEAT, BUT
OVERALL COVERAGE SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE COMPARED TO THE
WEEKEND.
BY MID TO LATE WEEK, DRIER CONDITIONS TAKE HOLD UNDER THE
EXPANDING RIDGE, WITH ONLY ISOLATED DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE. OVERALL, PRECIPITATION CHANCES DROP NOTABLY, PROVIDING
RELIEF FROM THE ONGOING FLOOD RISK. TEMPERATURES STAY SEASONALLY
WARM AND HUMID, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. WITH PLENTY OF
MOISTURE THROUGHOUT THE REGION, HUMIDTY WILL KEEP THINGS FEELING
STICKY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 103 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
18Z TAFS ARE STARTING VFR AND WILL BE MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON, BUT
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO AND DEVELOP
ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME STRONG TSRA
WILL OCCUR WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS OVER 30KT.
MAIN TIMING FOR THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE 23Z-06Z. AFTER THE STORMS, A
MIX OF MVFR/VFR WILL OCCUR WITH VCSH. WINDS WILL BE WSW WITH GUSTS
TO 16KT TODAY, WITH LIGHT W TO NW WINDS OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 71 84 70 84 / 80 90 50 80
CLARKSVILLE 70 83 69 84 / 80 80 40 60
CROSSVILLE 66 79 65 79 / 80 80 50 90
COLUMBIA 70 84 68 83 / 70 80 50 80
COOKEVILLE 68 81 67 81 / 90 90 40 90
JAMESTOWN 66 80 65 80 / 90 90 60 90
LAWRENCEBURG 69 83 68 82 / 70 80 60 80
MURFREESBORO 70 85 69 84 / 80 90 60 90
WAVERLY 69 83 68 83 / 80 80 40 70
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR TNZ005>011-023>034-
056>066-075-077>080-093>095.
SHORT TERM...CRAVENS
LONG TERM....CRAVENS
AVIATION.....13
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