095
FXUS64 KOHX 231734
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1234 PM CDT THU APR 23 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1234 PM CDT THU APR 23 2026
- DRY AND WARM TODAY.
- SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURN FRIDAY. THE SEVERE THREAT IS LOW,
THOUGH A FEW STRONG GUSTS COULD OCCUR.
- THERE IS A MEDIUM RISK OF SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE MID-STATE ON
MONDAY. THIS MAY INCLUDE THE RISK OF TORNADOES, DAMAGING
STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1218 PM CDT THU APR 23 2026
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVERHEAD AND SURFACE HIGH SITTING TO OUR EAST
WILL KEEP QUIET WEATHER IN PLACE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. HIGHS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL REACH THE LOW TO MID 80S. A STRONG TROUGH AND
SURFACE LOW ARE SITTING OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG A COLD FRONT OVER THE PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE COLD FRONT AND LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL APPROACH MIDDLE TN TOMORROW MORNING AFTER 9
AM. THE FRONT AND ACTIVITY ALONG THE FRONT WILL BE WEAKENING AS
THE SYSTEM BECOMES OCCLUDED. THIS WILL BRING A LOW CHANCE FOR POP
UP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE AFTERNOON MAINLY OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA.
UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL DURING THE DAY AND WE
WILL SEE A SHORT WAVE MOVE OVER THE REGION FRIDAY EVENING INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BRING A MEDIUM CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHER CAPE AND BETTER SHEAR WILL REMAIN TO OUR
SOUTH OVER AR AND MS. BULK SHEAR OVER MIDDLE TN WILL GENERALLY BE
20-25 KNOTS WITH RATHER POOR LAPSE RATES. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON HOW MUCH CAPE WE WILL SEE ACROSS THE AREA, IT WILL
LIKELY RANGE FROM 400-800 J/KG IN THE AFTERNOON TO LESS THAN 500
J/KG IN THE EVENING. THE SEVERE THREAT LOOKS VERY LOW FOR FRIDAY
BUT CAN'T RULE OUT GUSTY WINDS AND SOME SMALL HAIL WITH ANY
STRONGER CELLS THAT DEVELOP.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1218 PM CDT THU APR 23 2026
THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BE WORKING THROUGH MIDDLE TN FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND A LOW THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES IN THE FORECAST FOR THROUGH THE MORNING. CAPE WILL
INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE FORCING WILL BE
EAST OF THE AREA, THIS WILL KEEP THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON LOW. SHORT WAVE RIDGE BUILDS IN FOR
SUNDAY AND LINGERS INTO THE FIRST HALF OF MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING
DRY AND QUIET WEATHER WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.
THE FORECAST IS GOING TO BECOME ACTIVE ONCE AGAIN ON MONDAY AS A
NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH LIFTS OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.
THIS WILL BRING A DEEPENING LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND PUSH A
COLD FRONT EAST INTO MIDDLE TN MONDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
AS THE LOW DEEPENS WE WILL SEE BULK SHEAR RAPIDLY INCREASE TO
40-60 KNOTS WITH 0-3 KM HELICITY 250-350. THE HIGHEST CAPE, WIND
SHEAR, AND FORCING WILL SET UP TO OUR NORTHWEST DURING THE
EVENING. AS THE FRONT PUSHES INTO MIDDLE TN DURING THE EVENING OUR
CAPE WILL BE ON THE DOWNWARD TREND BUT WE WILL STILL SEE UP TO
1500 J/KG IN THE NORTHWEST FALLING OFF TO AROUND 500 J/KG FROM
NASHVILLE EAST. GIVEN THE WIND SHEAR AND THE FORCING THAT IS
PLENTY OF CAPE TO SEE STRONG AND SEVER STORMS. ALL MODES OF SEVERE
WEATHER LOOK TO BE POSSIBLE. THIS IS STILL A FEW DAYS OUT AND THE
DETAILS AND TIMING WILL LIKELY CHANGE BUT IT IS SOMETHING TO KEEP
AND EYE ON AND REMAIN UPDATED.
THE FRONT WILL BE WORKING EAST THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING
AND THAT WILL KEEP LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE EAST HALF OF THE
AREA THROUGH THE MORNING. THEN MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
INTO WEDNESDAY WITH ZONAL FLOW. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRACK OUT
OF THE WEST LATE IN THE WEEK AND THAT WILL BRING LOW RAIN CHANCES.
HIGHS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID
80S COOLING INTO THE 70S FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT THU APR 23 2026
VFR TAFS FOR MIDDLE TENNESSEE AIRPORTS CONTINUE. OCCASIONAL GUSTS
15-20 KTS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH A FEW CLOUDS.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TONIGHT, OUT OF THE SOUTH AND SW. WINDS WILL
BE SW AGAIN TOMORROW MID- MORNING WITH INCREASING GUSTINESS AND
CLOUDS FOLLOWED BY RAIN CHANCES. CERTAINTY WASN'T HIGH FOR THE
RAIN CHANCES, SO OMITTED THIS TAF RUN.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 61 83 63 81 / 0 40 90 60
CLARKSVILLE 61 81 61 81 / 10 70 90 40
CROSSVILLE 54 78 57 74 / 0 20 80 80
COLUMBIA 59 83 61 80 / 0 40 90 60
COOKEVILLE 58 80 60 76 / 0 30 80 70
JAMESTOWN 55 80 57 74 / 0 20 70 80
LAWRENCEBURG 59 82 61 79 / 0 40 90 70
MURFREESBORO 58 83 62 80 / 0 40 80 70
WAVERLY 63 81 61 81 / 0 70 80 40
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...MUELLER
LONG TERM....MUELLER
AVIATION.....HOLLEY
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