274
FXUS64 KOHX 130309
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1009 PM CDT WED AUG 12 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 956 PM CDT WED AUG 12 2026
- DANGEROUS HEAT EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH TRIPLE DIGIT
HEAT INDICES WEST OF THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU.
- LOWER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THURSDAY, BUT ANY STRONGER STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN.
- DRIER AND HOTTER CONDITIONS FAVORED FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND
FOLLOWED BY SOME MINOR RELIEF EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 956 PM CDT WED AUG 12 2026
AN EXPANDING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SE WILL CONTINUE TO EXERT
GREATER INFLUENCE ACROSS MIDDLE TN. RESIDUAL NW FLOW ALOFT WILL
WEAKEN AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS CLOSER, LIMITING ORGANIZED
CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS.
THURSDAY WILL FEATURE ANOTHER ROUND OF HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS.
AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE MID TO UPPER 90S WEST OF THE
PLATEAU, WITH DEWPOINTS HOLDING IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. THIS
COMBINATION WILL PUSH HEAT INDEX VALUES INTO THE 105-110 RANGE.
ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS CAN'T BE RULED OUT DURING PEAK
HEATING, BUT OVERALL COVERAGE LOOKS SPARSE. ANY STORMS THAT DO
FORM WILL STILL HAVE STRONG INSTABILITY AVAILABLE AND COULD
PRODUCE BRIEF GUSTY WINDS OR HEAVY DOWNPOURS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
REMAIN ELEVATED IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH PERSISTENT HUMIDITY.
BY FRIDAY THE RIDGE INFLUENCE STRENGTHENS FURTHER. INCREASED MID
LEVEL SUBSIDENCE SHOULD KEEP THE AREA DRY, WITH PRECIP CHANCES
DIMINISHING. HIGHS EDGE A BIT HIGHER INTO THE UPPER 90S AND HEAT
INDICES STAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 100S. LITTLE OVERNIGHT RELIEF IS
EXPECTED HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 956 PM CDT WED AUG 12 2026
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BECOME WELL ESTABLISHED
OVERHEAD THIS WEEKEND, DELIVERING THE HOTTEST STRETCH OF THE
PERIOD. HIGHS FROM SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB
INTO THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100 OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER IN SOME
LOCATIONS WEST OF THE PLATEAU. RECENT NBM AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
INDICATE SOLID PROBABILITIES OF REACHING OR EXCEEDING THE 100 DEG
MARK ON THE WARMEST DAYS. AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES OF 105 TO 110
WILL BE COMMON, AND WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S
WILL LIMIT RECOVERY, MAINTAINING MAJOR TO EXTREME HEAT RISK.
RAINFALL CHANCES REMAIN VERY LOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT SUPPRESS MOST
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. ANY ACTIVITY THAT FORMS WOULD BE ISOLATED
AND SHORT LIVED.
TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THE RIDGE
MAY BEGIN TO SHIFT OR WEAKEN AS A NORTHERN STREAM FEATURE
APPROACHES. THIS EVOLUTION SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE
SOMEWHAT AND OPEN THE DOOR FOR INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES,
THOUGH THE PRECISE TIMING BEYOND DAYS 5/6 STILL CARRIES SOME
UNCERTAINTY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 537 PM CDT WED AUG 12 2026
A REPEAT OF TUESDAY NIGHT'S FORECAST IS UNFOLDING THIS EVENING AS
ANOTHER MCS SINKS THROUGH KENTUCKY. GIVEN HOW WELL THE COMPLEX OF
STORMS APPROACHING MIDDLE TN IS HOLDING TOGETHER (AND HOW LITTLE
GRASP THE CAMS HAVE ON ITS FUTURE), OPTED TO HANG ONTO PROB30S AT
ALL SITES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THIS LINE MAY CRUMBLE APART
ALTOGETHER, OR IT MAY HOLD TOGETHER EVEN BETTER THAN LAST NIGHT.
OTHER THAN A VERY UNCERTAIN CONVECTIVE FORECAST, THE REST IS
ESSENTIALLY A PERSISTENCE FORECAST WITH LIGHT SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
WINDS AND SCATTERED CU WITH CIRRUS SHIELDS OVERSPREADING THE AREA
FROM ANVILS UPSTREAM.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 76 96 77 98 / 20 30 10 10
CLARKSVILLE 75 96 77 97 / 20 10 0 0
CROSSVILLE 70 87 72 89 / 40 20 10 10
COLUMBIA 75 97 77 99 / 20 10 10 0
COOKEVILLE 72 90 74 92 / 30 30 10 10
JAMESTOWN 70 88 72 90 / 40 30 30 10
LAWRENCEBURG 74 95 76 96 / 20 10 10 10
MURFREESBORO 74 96 76 98 / 20 30 10 10
WAVERLY 75 97 76 97 / 10 10 0 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR TNZ005>010-023>033-
056>065-075-077-078-093>095.
SHORT TERM...CRAVENS
LONG TERM....CRAVENS
AVIATION.....DIRKES
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