123
FXUS64 KOHX 180001
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
701 PM CDT MON AUG 17 2026
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 700 PM CDT MON AUG 17 2026
- TUESDAY WILL BE RAIN-FREE AND NOT AS HOT. WEDNESDAY WILL BE HOT,
BUT BELOW HEAT ADVISORY LEVELS.
- MEDIUM CHANCE FOR STORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY, THEN
TEMPERATURES DROP TO NORMAL LEVELS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 652 PM CDT MON AUG 17 2026
A COLD FRONT IS PUSHING THROUGH THE MID STATE THIS EVENING. WE HAD
SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS OUT AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THOSE
HAVE WEAKENED AND JUST ABOUT ALL MOVED OUT OF THE AREA. ONCE THE
LAST STRAGGLERS ARE DONE, WE SHOULD HAVE A QUIET NIGHT AND DRY DAY
FOR TUESDAY.
THE BEST NEWS IS THE END OF HEAT HEADLINES. TUESDAY WILL BE CLOSER
TO NORMAL FOR TEMPERATURES WITH LOWER HUMIDITY.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1051 AM CDT MON AUG 17 2026
IF YOU ARE NOT A FAN OF ALL THIS HEAT AND HUMIDITY, HANG ON TIGHT.
RELIEF IS COMING. THE FIRST (THOUGH SHORT) STINT OF RELIEF WILL COME
TOMORROW AFTER THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH MIDDLE TN THIS
AFTERNOON. WE'RE ALREADY SEEING SOME EFFECTS FROM THIS BOUNDARY THIS
MORNING WITH A FEW SHOWERS/RUMBLES OF THUNDER IN OUR NORTHWEST
QUADRANT. HOWEVER, THE FRONT ITSELF IS STILL BACK IN KY. AS IT
PUSHES CLOSER TO THE MID-STATE THIS AFTERNOON, WE ARE STILL EXPECTED
A SPIKE IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. MOST SHOULD BE CONFINED TO AREAS
ALONG AND EAST OF I-65 WITH A PEAK TIME FRAME OF 3 TO 8 PM. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ARE STILL SUPPORTIVE OF A MARGINAL WIND RISK WITH DECENT
MID AND LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND PLENTY OF INSTABILITY. THE MAIN
MITIGATING INGREDIENT IS A LACK OF VERTICAL SHEAR. WE'LL CONTINUE TO
HIGHLIGHT A LOW CHANCE FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS DURING THIS TIME
FRAME.
ONCE THE FRONT GETS THROUGH HERE THIS EVENING, I THINK WE'LL SEE ONE
DAY OF TEMP/HUMIDITY RELIEF TOMORROW. DEW POINTS FALL BACK INTO THE
60S BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND HIGHS WILL BE MUCH MORE NEAR NORMAL.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1051 AM CDT MON AUG 17 2026
ONE MORE (SHORT-LIVED) SHOT OF HEAT AND HUMIDTY IS EXPECTED TO REAR
ITS HEAD AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER SWINGS BACK AROUND
TO THE SOUTHWEST. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL CREEP A FEW DEGREES WARMER
THAN NORMAL, BUT THAT SHOULD BE ABOUT IT. COOLER WEATHER WILL
FOLLOW! BUT -- THE DOOR MAY BE OPEN FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS, TOO.
MOST ARE SUGGESTING A WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY TIME FRAME NOW
FOR MORE WIDESPREAD STORM DEVELOPMENT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ON
THURSDAY ARE WORTH WATCHING AS MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE HEALTHY AND
THERE COULD BE *A LITTLE* MORE SHEAR TO WORK WITH.
THIS STORM POTENTIAL ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY ALL REVOLVES
AROUND THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE US AND ONCE WE GET PAST THESE MID-WEEK STORMS,
MOST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS TEMPERATURES RIGHT AROUND NORMAL
WITH SMALL TO NO RAIN CHANCES FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. SOMETHING TO
LOOK FORWARD TO IF YOU HAVE OUTDOOR PLANS!
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 624 PM CDT MON AUG 17 2026
STORMS ARE EXITING THE PLATEAU LEAVING BEHIND VFR CONDITIONS
ACROSS MIDDLE TN. NW FLOW REMAINS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND GUSTS
DIMINISH THROUGH THIS EVENING. SRB/CSV ARE EXPECTED TO SEE SOME
FOG DEVELOP OVERNIGHT FROM THIS EVENINGS RAINFALL AND CLEARING
SKIES, BUT CLEARS OUT AFTER 12Z.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 67 90 64 94 / 0 0 0 0
CLARKSVILLE 66 89 67 92 / 0 0 10 20
CROSSVILLE 67 84 62 89 / 30 0 0 0
COLUMBIA 70 91 67 96 / 0 0 0 0
COOKEVILLE 68 85 64 89 / 10 0 0 0
JAMESTOWN 68 84 63 88 / 10 10 0 0
LAWRENCEBURG 70 89 66 94 / 0 0 0 0
MURFREESBORO 70 91 66 95 / 0 0 0 0
WAVERLY 68 90 68 93 / 0 0 10 20
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE.......13
SHORT TERM...UNGER
LONG TERM....UNGER
AVIATION.....CRAVENS
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