095
FXUS64 KOHX 020000
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
700 PM CDT WED APR 1 2026
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 655 PM CDT WED APR 1 2026
- WARM WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY, THEN
COOLER TO START NEXT WEEK.
- LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH FRIDAY,
INCREASING TO HIGH CHANCES BY LATE SATURDAY.
- THE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS OR FLOODING IS VERY LOW.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 655 PM CDT WED APR 1 2026
DIURNAL CONVECTION HAS WANED ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE. MOST
ACTIVITY WAS NEAR THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU TODAY, MOST EVERYWHERE
ELSE WAS HIGH AND DRY WITH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL. NO
MAJOR GRID EDITS WERE MADE FOR THE SHORT-TERM. EXPECT ANOTHER
WARM, BREEZY DAY TOMORROW AS A REGIONAL STORM SYSTEM IMPACTS THE
UPPER MIDWEST.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1155 AM CDT WED APR 1 2026
IT'S ANOTHER WARM AND HUMID DAY OUT WITH TEMPERATURES ALREADY NEAR
80 DEGREES AT 11AM. A WEAK BOUNDARY HAS DEVELOPED SOUTHEAST OF
NASHVILLE, STRETCHING FROM N AL UP INTO EASTERN KY. THIS BOUNDARY
HAS SPARKED CONVECTIVE INITIATION WITH PULSE-TYPE THUNDERSTORMS THAT
HAVE COLLAPSED JUST ABOUT AS QUICKLY AS THEY'VE DEVELOPED. THIS
MORNING'S SOUNDING REVEALED A TALL, SKINNY CAPE PROFILE, SO THESE
TYPE OF THUNDERSTORMS CHECK OUT. WITH THAT, WE ARE NOT
ANTICIPATING SEVERE STORMS TODAY. AND IF YOU'RE ONE OF THE LUCKY
ONES GETTING RAIN, REJOICE! SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY WILL DWINDLE
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND WE WILL BE LEFT WITH TEMPS IN
THE 60S OVERNIGHT.
THURSDAY'S FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO TODAY'S EXCEPT IT WILL BE A TOUCH
WARMER WITH HIGHS NEAR RECORD VALUE IN NASHVILLE. STORM CHANCES LOOK
LOWER TOMORROW AS THE EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR
SOUTHEAST PUSHES HIGHER HEIGHTS OVER THE AREA, LIMITING CONVECTION.
STILL, LOW CHANCES < 20% EXIST FOR SCATTERED STORMS PRIMARILY DURING
THE PEAK HEATING OF THE AFTERNOON. WE'LL SEE WINDS PICK UP TOMORROW,
TOO, AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHES WEST, BRINGING A TIGHTER
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA. GUSTS BETWEEN 30-35 MPH
WILL BE LIKELY.
WITH REGARDS TO TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR NASHVILLE, COPYING THIS
IN FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR INQUIRING MINDS:
BNA NORMALS LOW 45 HIGH 69
RECORDS 4/1 86 IN 1963
4/2 87 IN 2012
4/3 86 IN 2012
4/4 87 IN 2025
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1155 AM CDT WED APR 1 2026
A WEAKENING FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT,
BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW RAIN AND STORM CHANCES THROUGH THE
DAY FRIDAY. IT MAY VERY WELL LOSE ITS STEAM BEFORE MAKING IT TO
MIDDLE TN, SO WE ONCE AGAIN DO NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH RAINFALL. THE
PRIMARY CONCERN FOR THIS WEEKEND WILL BE SATURDAY WHEN A STRONG
COLD FRONT PUSHES A LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE AREA.
THE BETTER DYNAMICS ARE WELL OFF TO THE NORTH, SO THIS WILL LIMIT
OUR SEVERE POTENTIAL OVERALL, HOWEVER A FEW STRONG GUSTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE LINE AS BULK SHEAR INCREASES OVER 30 KTS. THIS
FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA BY DAYBREAK EASTER SUNDAY, THOUGH SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS COULD BE AROUND OVER THE PLATEAU. OTHERWISE,
EASTER SUNDAY WILL FEATURE BREEZY AND COOL CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS
IN THE 60S. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS SYSTEM REMAIN UNIMPRESSIVE,
GENERALLY 1" OR LESS.
MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL TRANSITION NORTHWESTERLY, STREAMING DRIER
INTO THE AREA FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK AND KEEPING
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 655 PM CDT WED APR 1 2026
MIDDLE TN AIRFIELDS ARE GETTING A VFR WIND FORECAST FOR THIS TAF
PERIOD. EXPECT S WINDS OVERNIGHT WITH LLWS JUST BELOW THRESHOLDS
FOR TAF INCLUSION. WINDS AT 2K FT. SHOULD BE 35-40 KTS.
FOR TOMORROW, S TO SSW SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH GUSTS
NOTICEABLE BY MID-MORNING. GUSTS 20-25 KTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON WITH SCT CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT. PEAK GUSTS COULD
APPROACH 30 KTS AT BNA, CKV, AND MQY AT TIMES. PROBABILITY FOR
RAIN/STORMS IS <10%, TOO LOW FOR TAF INCLUSION.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 65 85 66 85 / 10 0 20 20
CLARKSVILLE 66 85 67 85 / 10 10 30 40
CROSSVILLE 60 80 61 78 / 20 20 10 20
COLUMBIA 63 85 65 84 / 10 0 10 20
COOKEVILLE 63 82 64 80 / 20 10 10 20
JAMESTOWN 60 82 62 80 / 20 10 10 20
LAWRENCEBURG 63 84 65 82 / 10 10 10 10
MURFREESBORO 64 85 66 84 / 10 10 10 20
WAVERLY 65 84 67 84 / 10 0 30 30
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE.......SIZEMORE
SHORT TERM...BAGGETT
LONG TERM....BAGGETT
AVIATION.....SIZEMORE
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