908
FXUS64 KOHX 280532
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1232 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1228 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2026
- THERE ARE HIGH RAIN AND STORM CHANCES OVERNIGHT AND TOMORROW
MORNING, MAINLY FOR AREAS EAST OF I-65 AND NORTH OF I-40. HEAVY
RAIN WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN FROM THIS POINT FORWARD. A
FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT ACROSS NORTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND
THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU UNTIL 7 A.M. SUNDAY.
- DANGEROUS HEAT(!!!) AND HUMIDITY ARE EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH
LATE NEXT WEEK (AND POSSIBLY INTO THE WEEKEND) WITH TRIPLE
DIGIT HEAT INDICES EXPECTED ON A DAILY BASIS! AN EXTREME HEAT
WATCH IS IN EFFECT MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY FOR ALL OF MIDDLE
TENNESSEE RIGHT UP TO (BUT NOT INCLUDING) THE CUMBERLAND
PLATEAU.
- RAIN AND STORMS CHANCES AFTER TOMORROW ARE VERY LOW. WE MAY
EXPERIENCE SOME HEAT-DRIVEN CONVECTION BY LATE NEXT WEEK, BUT
THERE ARE NO SEVERE WEATHER CONCERNS AFTER TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1017 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2026
A PESKY SURFACE BOUNDARY REMAINS SITUATED TO OUR NORTH THIS
EVENING, BUT NOT FOR MUCH LONGER. A SHORTWAVE HAS DEVELOPED IN THE
MID-LEVEL FLOW THAT IS HELPING TO FORCE SOME OF THAT CONVECTION
FARTHER SOUTH INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE, HENCE THE STORMS THAT
DEVELOPED THIS EVENING. THE HRRR HAS HINTED THAT AN ORGANIZED LINE
OF CONVECTION WILL SET UP DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AND INTO
TOMORROW MORNING, MAINLY IN AREAS EAST OF I-65 AND NORTH OF I-40,
SO THIS WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR ANY POTENTIAL FLOODING,
ESPECIALLY ANY AREAS THAT MIGHT EXPERIENCE ECHO TRAINING. THE
ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE REGION REMAINS HIGHLY-UNSTABLE, MOISTURE-
LADEN AND ALSO MODERATELY-SHEARED. SO THE POTENTIAL FOR EXTREMELY
HIGH RAINFALL RATES IS DEFINITELY STILL PRESENT WITH THIS
ENVIRONMENT. AFTER TOMORROW, OUR RAIN CHANCES WILL DROP OFF FOR A
STRETCH OF DAYS, WITH THE THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS AND FLOODING
GIVING WAY TO THE THREAT OF EXTREME HEAT. STARTING MONDAY, AN
EXTREME HEAT WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR WIDESPREAD HEAT INDICES UP TO
110 DEGREES.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1017 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2026
THE EXTREME HEAT ISN'T GOING AWAY ANYTIME SOON. HIGH PRESSURE BOTH
AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS MIDDLE
TENNESSEE FOR ALL OF NEXT WEEK AND PERHAPS EVEN THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. SO WE WILL LIKELY FIND OURSELVES WITH HEAT-RELATED
HAZARDS FOR SEVERAL DAYS IN A ROW AS HEAT INDEX VALUES INCREASE
WELL INTO THE 100S AT MOST LOCATIONS WEST OF THE CUMBERLAND
PLATEAU, POSSIBLY ALL THE WAY THROUGH SATURDAY. AS FAR AS RAIN
CHANCES, WE MAY START TO EXPERIENCE HEAT-GENERATED SHOWERS AND
STORMS TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK, BUT WE DON'T EXPECT ANY ACTIVE
WEATHER SYSTEMS HERE IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE FOR THE FORESEEABLE
FUTURE.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1228 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2026
CONVECTIVE CELLS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE PROPAGATING ACROSS
MIDDLE TENNESSEE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL STAY
NORTH OF THE TERMINALS AS A SURFACE BOUNDARY REMAINS SITUATED TO
OUR NORTH. A SHORTWAVE COMING THROUGH THE REGION WILL PUSH SOME OF
THIS CONVECTION SOUTHWARD, SO WE'VE GOT AFTERNOON PROB30 REMARKS
FOR TS/CBS AT KCSV AND KSRB BEFORE THIS SYSTEM FINALLY PULLS EAST
OF THE REGION BY SUNDAY EVENING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 93 76 96 78 / 20 0 0 0
CLARKSVILLE 92 75 96 76 / 10 0 0 0
CROSSVILLE 84 71 88 71 / 80 30 10 0
COLUMBIA 94 74 97 76 / 10 0 0 0
COOKEVILLE 86 72 90 73 / 80 40 0 0
JAMESTOWN 84 70 90 71 / 80 40 20 0
LAWRENCEBURG 91 73 94 75 / 10 0 0 0
MURFREESBORO 93 74 96 76 / 30 10 0 0
WAVERLY 93 74 96 76 / 10 0 0 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
EXTREME HEAT WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
FOR TNZ005>010-023>032-056>064-075-093>095.
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR TNZ010-011-031>034-
065-066.
SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM....ROSE
AVIATION.....ROSE
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