048
FXUS64 KOHX 142321
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
621 PM CDT MON SEP 14 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 620 PM CDT MON SEP 14 2026
- HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY FOR MOST OF
MIDDLE TENNESSEE WEST OF THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU. HEAT INDICES UP
TO 109 DEGREES ARE EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON.
- RAIN CHANCES THIS WEEK ARE VERY LOW AND LIMITED TO THE PLATEAU
MID TO LATE WEEK. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
- A GRADUAL COOL-DOWN IS FORECAST SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK,
BUT TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE-NORMAL FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1140 AM CDT MON SEP 14 2026
IT'S FAIRLY HOT OUTSIDE TODAY, BUT NOT AS BAD AS IT WILL BE
STARTING TOMORROW. CURRENTLY MIDDLE TENNESSEE IS BEING GRAZED BY A
UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE HIGH JUST TO OUR NORTHEAST. THIS IS
LEADING TO A NORTHEASTERLY WIND AT MOST OBSERVATIONS SITES WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S, THOUGH SOME PLACES ARE STILL
REPORTING DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S. FOR TOMORROW, THE DEEP-LAYER
RIDGE JUST TO OUR WEST WILL SETTLE ESSENTIALLY RIGHT OVER OUR
REGION WITH A TRANSITION TO A LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZE. THIS
SCENARIO SUPPORTS A WARMING OF TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 90S,
PERHAPS TO NEAR 100 DEGREES IN SOME PLACES, TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WE
COULD TIE OR BREAK THE RECORD OF 98 DEGREES AT BNA TOMORROW
PREVIOUSLY SET BACK IN 1927. AFTERNOON HUMIDITY WILL PUSH HEAT
INDICES WELL INTO THE 100S MOST PLACES. THUS, A HEAT ADVISORY IS
IN EFFECT. EXACT HEAT INDICES WILL VARY SPATIALLY DEPENDING UPON
HOW DEWPOINTS MIX OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1140 AM CDT MON SEP 14 2026
EXCESSIVE HEAT WILL BE THE BIGGEST WEATHER CONCERN FOR THIS WEEK
THANKS TO THE BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING MUCH OF THE
EASTERN CONUS. THE WORST OF THE HEAT WILL BE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY, BUT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE-NORMAL WITH
RAIN & STORM CHANCES VERY LOW TO NEAR ZERO. ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS
OR A STORM ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
THE PLATEAU MID TO LATE WEEK AND THIS IS INFLUENCED BY AN UPPER-
LEVEL LOW MOVING (WEST) OFF OF THE ATLANTIC TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST
US. WE'LL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL SUNDAY/MONDAY TO SEE AN IMPROVEMENT
IN TEMPERATURES AND TO GET MORE VIABLE RAIN CHANCES WHICH WOULD BE
IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH (MERCIFULLY) MOVING IN
FROM THE WEST
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 620 PM CDT MON SEP 14 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SKC AND LIGHT
VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT WILL TRANSITION TO FAIR WEATHER CU AND
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS TOMORROW.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 70 99 76 97 / 0 0 0 0
CLARKSVILLE 69 99 75 98 / 0 0 0 0
CROSSVILLE 64 90 67 90 / 0 10 0 0
COLUMBIA 71 100 74 98 / 0 0 0 0
COOKEVILLE 68 94 71 93 / 0 0 0 0
JAMESTOWN 64 90 69 90 / 0 0 0 0
LAWRENCEBURG 70 98 73 96 / 0 0 0 0
MURFREESBORO 70 100 75 99 / 0 0 0 0
WAVERLY 73 98 76 97 / 0 0 0 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TUESDAY TO 8 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR
TNZ005>010-023>033-056>065-075-077-078-093>095.
SHORT TERM...SIZEMORE
LONG TERM....SIZEMORE
AVIATION.....CAHILL
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