452
FXUS64 KOHX 270356
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
956 PM CST THU FEB 26 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 935 PM CST THU FEB 26 2026
- TONIGHT WE CAN EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO DROP MAINLY INTO THE 30S
ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE WITH AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING BY
MORNING.
- FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE POSITIVELY SPRING-LIKE, WITH PLENTY
OF SUNSHINE AND DAYTIME HIGHS SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS.
- LOW TO MEDIUM RAIN CHANCES WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT NEXT WEEK,
BUT WE'LL ALSO GET TO ENJOY A PROLONGED PERIOD OF UNSEASONAL
WARMTH FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 935 PM CST THU FEB 26 2026
A WARM FRONT REMAINS CLOSE BY TO THE SOUTH OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE
WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE MID STATE FROM THE WEST, SO
THERE HAS BEEN SOME LINGERING CONVECTION AS FAR NORTH AS THE TN/AL
BORDER THIS EVENING. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY HAS DISSIPATED OR MOVED
OUT OF THE MID STATE AS COOLER, MORE STABLE AIR TRICKLES INTO THE
REGION NOW THAT HIGH PRESSURE IS STARTING TO BUILD OVER US. SO
LOOK FOR DECREASING CLOUDINESS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW WHILE PATCHY
FOG LOOKS TO DEVELOP (AND ALREADY HAS IN A FEW LOCATIONS) OWING TO
THE WET GROUND AND COOLER AIR ADVECTING INTO THE AREA. TOMORROW,
WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO ENJOY ABUNDANT SUNSHINE, ESPECIALLY DURING
THE AFTERNOON, AS TEMPERATURES WARM WELL INTO THE 60S, OR ABOUT
25-30 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE FORECAST MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER PATTERN FOR MOST OF THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND, AS SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE EVEN WARMER THAN FRIDAY.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 935 PM CST THU FEB 26 2026
WE CAN EXPECT A SOMEWHAT COOLER SUNDAY, OWING MAINLY TO INCREASED
CLOUD COVER AS WE START TO FEEL THE EFFECTS OF THE NEXT ACTIVE
WEATHER SYSTEM. RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY AS A WARM FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS IN THE VICINITY
OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE. IN FACT, THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGHOUT NEXT
TO WEEK LOOKS TO BE SOMEWHAT AMPLIFIED AND UNSETTLED SO THAT LOW
TO MEDIUM RAIN CHANCES WILL STAY WITH US FOR THE DURATION. DESPITE
THIS, TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT NEXT WEEK WILL BE POSITIVELY
SPRING- LIKE AS WE GET TO ENJOY SEVERAL DAYS WITH READINGS
SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. QPF TOTALS THROUGHOUT NEXT
WEEK ARE FAR FROM EXCESSIVE, AND THE RISK OF ANY HAZARDOUS WEATHER
IS VERY LOW FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. LOOKING AHEAD, BOTH THE
6-10 DAY AND 8-14 DAY OUTLOOKS STRONGLY FAVOR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES, AND ALSO ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 520 PM CST THU FEB 26 2026
WHILE VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF MIDDLE TN, MVFR
CIGS ARE STILL IMPACTING CSV AND SRB WHERE CLOUD COVER IS SLOWLY
ERODING AWAY. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL BE IN PLACE OVERNIGHT, BUT
THIS WILL LEAD TO FOG CONCERNS. HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR FOG IS AT
CSV, BUT PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE AT THE OTHER TAF SITES. MAIN TIME
PERIOD FOR FOG IS BETWEEN 09Z AND 14Z. ANY FOG WILL DIMINISH EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING, LEAVING BEHIND VFR CONDITIONS, CLEAR SKIES, AND
LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 39 67 41 73 / 0 0 0 0
CLARKSVILLE 37 68 42 73 / 0 0 0 0
CROSSVILLE 37 62 38 67 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBIA 39 67 40 74 / 10 0 0 0
COOKEVILLE 37 62 39 68 / 0 0 0 0
JAMESTOWN 35 60 37 67 / 0 0 0 0
LAWRENCEBURG 39 66 40 72 / 10 0 0 0
MURFREESBORO 38 66 38 72 / 0 0 0 0
WAVERLY 38 67 42 72 / 0 0 0 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM....ROSE
AVIATION.....CLEMENTS
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