043
FXUS64 KOHX 070508
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1108 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1108 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2026
- THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
SATURDAY. SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE, MAINLY POSING
A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.
- MEDIUM TO HIGH RAIN CHANCES WILL PERSIST THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. APPRECIABLE RAINFALL TOTALS ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 7
DAYS, WHICH SHOULD HELP ALLEVIATE OUR WORSENING DROUGHT
CONDITIONS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 615 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2026
THERE IS VERY LITTLE ACTIVE WEATHER ONGOING IN THE VICINITY OF
MIDDLE TENNESSEE AS WE HEAD INTO THE EVENING AND WE EXPECT VERY
LITTLE ACTIVITY UNTIL MID-MORNING TOMORROW. A FAMILIAR BERMUDA
HIGH HAS BECOME ESTABLISHED OFF THE CAROLINA COAST -- IT'S A BIT
EARLY IN THE YEAR TO BE SEEING THAT FEATURE ON A WEATHER MAP --
WHICH MEANS WE ARE FLUSH WITH WARM, MOIST ADVECTION ACROSS MIDDLE
TENNESSEE. AS EXPECTED, RECORD HIGHS WERE SET AT NASHVILLE AND
CROSSVILLE TODAY, BUT TOMORROW'S READINGS WON'T BE QUITE SO WARM
OWING TO ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER AND THE EXPECTED STORMS HEADED OUR
WAY. THE EVENING SOUNDING FROM OHX SHOWS A MOIST, UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE ALREADY IN PLACE, WITH A SBCAPE OF 1,599 J/KG AND A
LIFTED INDEX OF -5. PRECIPITABLE WATER COMES IN AT 1.27", WHICH
ISN'T QUITE A RECORD FOR THIS DATE, BUT IS DEFINITELY ABOVE THE
90TH PERCENTILE AND GIVES US A PWAT+ VALUE OF 265 (MEANING THAT
THE OBSERVED PWAT IS 265% OF THE DAILY MEAN). SO THE INGREDIENTS
ARE ALREADY IN PLACE FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME HIGH RAINFALL RATES WITH TOMORROW'S EXPECTED
COLD FRONT.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 953 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2026
THE 88D IS OPERATING IN CLEAR AIR MODE THIS EVENING AS WE AWAIT
WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ON SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES WILL SETTLE INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS MIDDLE
TENNESSEE. TOMORROW WILL BE QUITE WARM ONCE AGAIN, BUT NOT AS WARM
AS TODAY'S RECORD-BREAKING TEMPERATURES. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST, AND, ACCORDING TO THE 00Z HRRR, WE
CAN EXPECT AN ORGANIZED LINE OF CONVECTION TO ENTER THE MID STATE
TOMORROW AROUND 16Z, REACH THE NASHVILLE METRO AREA BY 19Z AND
ARRIVE ON THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU BY 22Z. MIDDLE TENNESSEE REMAINS
UNDER A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS TOMORROW, AND FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUPPORT THIS POSSIBILITY. AS AN EXAMPLE, THE HRRR
FORECAST SOUNDING VALID AT 18Z FOR BNA (SHORTLY BEFORE THE
EXPECTED LINE OF CONVECTION ARRIVES) SHOWS SOME NOTEWORTHY
PARAMETERS. FIRST OF ALL, THE ENVIRONMENT IS GOING TO BE WET;
PRECIPITABLE WATER COMES IN AT 1.44, WHICH IS OFF-THE-CHARTS FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. LOOK FOR SOME HIGH RAINFALL RATES WITH THESE
STORMS. SECOND, THE SBCAPE IS PROJECTED AT OVER 1,100 J/KG WITH A
LIFTED INDEX OF -5. SO THE INSTABILITY IS THERE FOR SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION. THIRD, THE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATE (700-500 MB) COMES IN
AT A HEALTHY 6.7°C/KM, WHICH IS UNUSUALLY HIGH FOR A SOUNDING
THAT'S THIS SATURATED. THUS, SUB-SEVERE HAIL (<1" DIAMETER) IS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. FOURTH, LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS GOING TO
BE MODEST. THE 0-3 KM HELICITY COMES IN AT 145, AND THIS IS OWING
MAINLY TO SPEED SHEAR, AS THE WIND PROFILE IS NEARLY
UNIDIRECTIONAL. SO IT LOOKS LIKE THE PRIMARY RISKS ARE GOING TO BE
1). STRONG TO SEVERE STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS RESULTING FROM WET
MICROBURSTS, 2). SHORT-LIVED INTENSE RAINFALL RATES AND 3). SMALL
HAIL. THERE IS LIKELY TO BE A BROAD AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
SHOWERS FOLLOWING THE INITIAL LINE OF STORMS, SO MOST IF NOT ALL
OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE SHOULD RECEIVE APPRECIABLE RAINFALL TOTALS.
QPF VALUES THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT RANGE FROM 1/2" TO 1", AND THERE
ARE LIKELY TO BE ISOLATED SPOTS THAT MEASURE IN EXCESS OF 1".
ALTHOUGH THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT WILL LAG BEHIND THE PRIMARY BAND OF
CONVECTION, WE SHOULD EXPERIENCE A FROPA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP A FEW DEGREES
FOLLOWING THE FROPA, BUT WE'LL STILL REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS
AS WE HEAD INTO THE NEW WEEK.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 953 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2026
THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED
EVEN AFTER THIS WEEKEND'S FROPA. MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES AND ONE FINAL
COLD FRONT WILL KEEP MEDIUM TO HIGH POPS IN THE THE FORECAST
CONSISTENTLY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WHICH IS WHEN WE CAN EXPECT
THAT COLD FRONT. AFTER THAT WE'LL TRANSITION TO A DRY PATTERN FOR
AWHILE, AND ALSO SEE OUR TEMPERATURES DROP CLOSER TO SEASONAL
VALUES...AT LEAST FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS. QPF TOTALS FOR THE NEXT 7
DAYS RANGE FROM 1.5" TO 3" ACROSS THE MID STATE, WITH THE GREATEST
AMOUNTS CONFINED PRIMARILY TO AREAS WEST OF I-65. THIS SHOULD
HELP ALLEVIATE OUR WORSENING DROUGHT CONDITIONS, AT LEAST IN THE
SHORT TERM.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1108 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF
10 KTS OR LESS, HOWEVER BY 12-13Z/SAT, LOOK FOR MVFR CIGS TO
MOVE IN FOR ALL TERMINALS WITH WIND GUSTS PICKING UP TO 20 KTS. A
LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE IN AROUND LUNCHTIME SATURDAY.
THESE HAVE BEEN TEMPO'D WITH A FEW HOURS OF SHOWERS ON THE
BACKSIDE. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN BY 00Z/SUN FOR ALL
TERMINALS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 66 78 55 69 / 10 90 80 20
CLARKSVILLE 66 75 51 68 / 10 100 70 0
CROSSVILLE 61 75 56 66 / 10 80 80 60
COLUMBIA 64 77 56 69 / 10 90 70 20
COOKEVILLE 63 76 56 66 / 10 90 80 50
JAMESTOWN 62 76 54 65 / 10 80 80 70
LAWRENCEBURG 63 76 57 69 / 20 80 80 40
MURFREESBORO 65 78 56 68 / 10 90 70 30
WAVERLY 63 73 51 68 / 10 100 80 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE.......ROSE
SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM....ROSE
AVIATION.....UNGER
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