067
FXUS64 KOHX 200522
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1122 PM CST MON JAN 19 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1122 PM CST MON JAN 19 2026
- INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN WINTER WEATHER WITH MAJOR TRAVEL
IMPACTS THIS WEEKEND. STAY TUNED FOR THE LATEST.
- COLDEST TEMPERATURES THIS (TUESDAY) MORNING WITH LOW TEENS AND
SINGLE DIGITS.
- TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARMER WEDNESDAY WITH LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCE
FOR RAIN, VERY LOW CHANCE FOR SNOW CHANGE OVER WEDNESDAY
EVENING.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1055 PM CST MON JAN 19 2026
VERY COLD CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE START OF TUESDAY
WITH VERY DRY AND COLD HIGH PRESSURE SITTING OVER THE AREA. MOST
LOCATIONS WILL START IN THE LOWER TEENS, BUT THERE WILL BE SOME
SINGLE DIGITS. THANKFULLY, WINDS WILL BE LIGHT, SO WIND CHILLS
WILL NOT BE MUCH OF AN ADDITIONAL ISSUE.
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND DAYTIME TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OFF TO THE EAST AND WE PICK UP SOME LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW BY THE
AFTERNOON. HIGHS SHOULD BE ABOVE FREEZING AREA WIDE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE CWA GETTING ABOVE 40.
WEDNESDAY WILL START OFF COLD WITH LOWS IN THE 20S, BUT THAT WILL
BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN TUESDAY MORNING. IT WILL BE
BREEZY ON WEDNESDAY WITH SOUTH WINDS AT 10-15 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS
OVER 20 MPH AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA. MODELS SHOW A
GOOD CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
FIRST HALF OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IT LOOKS LIKE THE PRECIPITATION
SHOULD STAY AS RAIN. IF THERE IS ANY CHANGEOVER TO A FEW
SNOWFLAKES, NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1055 PM CST MON JAN 19 2026
THE BIG STORY IS THE INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR A LATE WEEK /
WEEKEND WINTER STORM. LOTS OF NUMBERS ARE BEING THROWN AROUND
FROM VARIOUS MODELS, AND OTHER SOURCES, INCLUDING SOME NUMBERS
THAT ARE CLIMATOLOGICALLY RIDICULOUS. IT IS STILL TOO SOON TO
MAKE A GOOD CALL ON EXACT AMOUNTS OF SNOW AND ICE.
MODELS TRENDS ARE SUGGESTING MOSTLY OR ALL SNOW FOR AREAS ALONG
AND NORTH OF I-40 WITH GREATER CONCERNS FOR ICE MIXING WITH THE
SNOW FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-40. THE LATEST NBM GIVES ABOUT A 50 PERCENT
CHANCE FOR MORE THAN 4 INCHES OF SNOW ALONG AND NORTH OF I-40
WITH 30 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCES TO THE SOUTH. IF WE TURN TO THE
GENERALLY MORE RELIABLE ECMWF DATA, THE ENSEMBLE DATA SHOWS
GREATEST PROBS IN THE 3 TO 8 INCH RANGE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. BUT,
THE ENSEMBLE SPREAD WE TYPICALLY VIEW AS "REASONABLE
POSSIBILITIES" RUNS FROM 2 INCHES TO 10 INCHES. THIS INDICATES A
LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST. THESE RANGES WILL LIKELY
TIGHTEN UP INTO SOME USEFUL VALUES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT NUMBERS, PREPARATIONS SHOULD BEGIN FOR
SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL IMPACTS ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE.
AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION, THERE ARE PLENTY
OF DETAILS THAT CAN DERAIL THE SNOW TRAIN. MODELS VARY WITH
HOW MUCH ENERGY WILL BE EJECTED OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST US WHICH
WILL IMPACT THE STRENGTH AND LOCATION OF THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE
SOUTHEAST. ALSO THERE IS A QUESTION OF THE DEPTH OF THE COLD AIR.
WE ARE HIGHLY CONFIDENT COLD AIR WILL BE IN PLACE FOR WINTRY
CONDITIONS, BUT THERE COULD BE A NARROW NOSE OF WARM AIR OVER
SOUTHERN SECTIONS THAT WOULD RESULT IN A SLEETY AND MAYBE FREEZING
RAIN MIX, POTENTIALLY CUTTING DOWN TOTALS, BUT STILL POSING
TRAVEL PROBLEMS.
ANOTHER ISSUE THAT WILL NEED TO BE ADDRESSED IS TIMING OF INITIAL
PRECIPITATION. SOME MODELS ARE STARTING ACCUMULATING LIGHT SNOW
AS SOON AS FRIDAY, ALTHOUGH IT LOOKS LIKE THE MAIN TIME FRAME FOR
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
HOPEFULLY WE WILL SEE THIS TIMING ISSUE IMPROVE, BUT IT MAY BE
PRUDENT TO KEEP IN MIND EARLY PRECIPITATION START TIMES COULD
OCCUR.
AFTER ALL THE WINTRY STUFF HAS FALLEN, WE MAY NEED SEVERAL DAYS
OF RECOVERY NEXT WEEK FOR CLEAR TRAVEL TO RETURN. TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO STAY VERY COLD EARLY NEXT WEEK, MAYBE NOT CLIMBING
ABOVE FREEZING AGAIN UNTIL TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1122 PM CST MON JAN 19 2026
WINDS WILL TURN TO SOUTHERLY BY THE MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY
(AFTER 14Z). THEY WILL REMAIN LIGHT, AROUND 5 KNOTS, AND BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE BEFORE PICKING BACK UP TO AROUND 5-10 KNOTS
OUTSIDE OF THE TAF PERIOD WEDNESDAY. CEILINGS WILL REMAIN VFR.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 15 38 27 48 / 0 0 0 50
CLARKSVILLE 13 37 25 46 / 0 0 0 40
CROSSVILLE 9 35 21 46 / 0 0 0 60
COLUMBIA 14 40 25 48 / 0 0 0 60
COOKEVILLE 11 34 23 48 / 0 0 0 60
JAMESTOWN 9 32 21 48 / 0 0 0 50
LAWRENCEBURG 14 40 25 48 / 0 0 0 60
MURFREESBORO 11 39 24 49 / 0 0 0 60
WAVERLY 14 38 27 44 / 0 0 0 70
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION.....HOLLEY
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