052
FXUS64 KOHX 141738
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1238 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1225 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2026
- RAIN AND STORM CHANCES TODAY ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE, GREATEST
COVERAGE EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGHEST
CHANCES FOR STRONG STORMS ARE EAST OF I-65.
- ONCE THE COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH, WE CAN LOOK FORWARD TO MUCH
DRIER AND ALSO MUCH COOLER WEATHER FOR THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS.
- A MORE HUMID AND ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL RETURN LATER IN
THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1114 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2026
A COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING FROM THE NW AND WILL MOVE THROUGH
MIDDLE TN TODAY. AFTER THE FIRST ROUND OF SHOWERS THIS MORNING,
ANOTHER ROUND OF MORE ORGANIZED STORMS IS EXPECTED LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AS DAYTIME HEATING AND A SHORTWAVE ENHANCES INSTABILITY
AHEAD OF BOUNDARY. CAMS INDICATE THE BEST COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING, PARTICULARLY ALONG AND EAST OF
I-65, WITH THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY FOCUSED ACROSS THE TN/AL BORDER,
UP THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLATEAU. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS REMAIN THE
PRIMARY THREAT GIVEN MARGINAL LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES, CAPE, AND
WIND SHEAR. THERE ARE SUFFICIENT PWATS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL SO CAN'T
RULE OUT ANY LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING IN ANY AREAS THAT SEE
REPEATED DEVELOPMENT.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL REACH THE 80S. BEHIND THE FRONT THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT, SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO
EAST. LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S, PROVIDING A
NOTICEABLE COOLDOWN.
MONDAY LOOKS MUCH QUIETER WITH DRIER AIR IN PLACE. PATCHY FOG IS
POSSIBLE MONDAY MORNING IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE HEAVY RAIN
OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE, EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES, LIGHT NW WINDS,
AND HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S (WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR
MID-JUNE). LOWS DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S MONDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1114 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2026
THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES MORE ZONAL WITH EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW. THIS WILL BRING A BREAK IN THE
ACTIVE WEATHER EARLY IN THE WEEK BEFORE RAIN CHANCES INCREASE
AGAIN MID TO LATE WEEK. TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL SEE A
WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS RETURNING TO THE MID AND UPPER 80S. RAIN
CHANCES REMAIN LOW EARLY TUESDAY BUT WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE
WEDNESDAY AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY APPROACHES. DIURNALLY DRIVEN STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE PLATEAU.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL SEE MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM. MODELS SUGGEST PERIODIC HEAVY RAINFALL, WITH A LOW
END RISK FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND, SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS, BUT OVERALL
PATTERN FAVORS AT LEAST SCATTERED STORM CHANCES THROUGH EACH
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL NORMS LOOK LIKELY WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2026
CONVECTION IS BUILDING TO THE WEST OF BNA AND MQY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHEAST. EXPECT IMPACTS AT THESE TERMINALS
THROUGH ~20Z WHICH INCLUDES BRIEF REDUCTION IN CIG/VIS WITH
RAINFALL AND PERHAPS A WIND GUST. ACTIVITY WILL MOVE EAST TOWARD
SRB AND CSV THEREAFTER.
AS FROPA OCCURS EXPECT A WIND SHIFT TO NW AT 7-12 KTS THROUGH THE
EARLY EVENING WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS. CONDITIONS IMPROVE
MID TO LATE EVENING AS DRIER AIR FILTERS IN AND SKY COVER
DECREASES. MVFR CIGS COULD PERSIST AT SRB AND CSV THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT, N TO NW TOMORROW WITH
VFR.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 63 81 59 84 / 20 0 0 0
CLARKSVILLE 59 78 55 82 / 0 0 0 0
CROSSVILLE 59 76 53 77 / 60 10 0 0
COLUMBIA 62 80 57 82 / 30 0 0 0
COOKEVILLE 60 77 55 79 / 60 10 0 0
JAMESTOWN 58 76 53 78 / 60 10 0 0
LAWRENCEBURG 62 79 58 81 / 40 0 0 0
MURFREESBORO 63 81 58 83 / 40 0 0 0
WAVERLY 61 79 56 81 / 10 0 0 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...CRAVENS
LONG TERM....CRAVENS
AVIATION.....SIZEMORE
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