617
FXUS64 KOHX 120527
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1127 PM CST SUN JAN 11 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1125 PM CST SUN JAN 11 2026
- COLD START TO MONDAY, BUT GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.
- MEDIUM TO HIGH RAIN CHANCES RETURN WEDNESDAY. A CHANGEOVER TO
LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
MEDIUM CHANCE FOR LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE PLATEAU.
- BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FORECAST THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1015 PM CST SUN JAN 11 2026
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL DICTATE STABLE AND
DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE FOR MONDAY. IN FACT,
MORNING TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF IN THE LOW-MID 20S MOST AREAS
WITH FREEZING FOG POSSIBLE NEAR LAKES AND RIVERS. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS WHICH WILL PROMOTE A
LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WIND. AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50
ARE FORECAST. GRADUAL WARMING SHOULD CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY WITH
CONTINUED SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF A DISTURBANCE THAT WILL
APPROACH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1015 PM CST SUN JAN 11 2026
A SOMEWHAT COMPLEX PROGRESSION OF TWO TO THREE UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCES IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS ON
WEDNESDAY, ALL EMBEDDED IN AN AMPLIFYING LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS
THE EAST. THIS WILL COINCIDE WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE
AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN, FOLLOWED BY THE
EVOLVING UPPER-LEVEL LOW WHICH IS PROJECTED TO MOVE INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY FROM THE NORTH. THIS SCENARIO WILL FAVOR CONTINUED LIFT IN
MIDDLE TN WITH SUBSTANTIAL TEMPERATURE DROPS BEHIND THE FRONT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A CHANGEOVER FROM LIGHT RAIN TO SNOW IS EXPECTED
AS A RESULT AND THIS LIGHT SNOW ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. DESPITE DWINDLING MOISTURE AVAILABILITY, THE
PLATEAU LOOKS TO RECEIVE LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS WITH LATEST NBM
PROBABILITIES YIELDING A 30-50% CHANCE OF 1.0" OR MORE. CHANCES
FOR MEASURABLE SNOW EXTEND TO NEAR I-65 AND THE NASHVILLE AREA,
BUT THERE'S VERY LOW CONFIDENCE IN MUCH MORE THAN A DUSTING WEST
OF THE PLATEAU SINCE THIS SETUP WILL FAVOR HIGHER TERRAIN AND
UPSLOPE FLOW. STAY TUNED FOR FORECAST UPDATES SINCE A LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY FOR EASTERN MIDDLE TN.
AFTER THE DEPARTURE OF THIS SYSTEM ON THURSDAY, A BROAD LONGWAVE
TROUGH IS SET TO OVERTAKE MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS
INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED BELOW-
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND THERE'S ONLY <20% PRECIPITATION CHANCES
FOR THE WEEKEND AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CST SUN JAN 11 2026
VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH LIGHT WINDS, FAVORING
THE SW AFTER 15Z MONDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 26 50 32 60 / 0 0 0 0
CLARKSVILLE 25 50 32 60 / 0 0 0 0
CROSSVILLE 20 45 27 54 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBIA 24 50 30 58 / 0 0 0 0
COOKEVILLE 22 45 28 54 / 0 0 0 0
JAMESTOWN 21 45 28 54 / 0 0 0 0
LAWRENCEBURG 23 49 29 57 / 0 0 0 0
MURFREESBORO 22 49 28 57 / 0 0 0 0
WAVERLY 25 48 32 57 / 0 0 0 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...SIZEMORE
LONG TERM....SIZEMORE
AVIATION.....CRAVENS
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