897
FXUS64 KOHX 231139
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
539 AM CST TUE DEC 23 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 539 AM CST TUE DEC 23 2025
- LOW CHANCE FOR LIGHT SHOWERS THROUGH TODAY. NO SEVERE WEATHER
IS EXPECTED.
- ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN STORE FOR CHRISTMAS DAY WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.
- A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND, BRINGING
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR-NORMAL VALUES.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1010 PM CST MON DEC 22 2025
ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH CONTINUES ACROSS MIDDLE TN THANKS TO A LARGE
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO OUR WEST ALONG WITH SOUTHERLY
SURFACE WINDS. DESPITE THESE SOUTHERLY WINDS, LOW-LEVELS REMAIN DRY
WITH DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OF 15 TO 25 DEGREES. THIS CAN ALSO BE SEEN
ON THE 00Z SOUNDING WHERE DESPITE A PWAT OF 0.91 INCHES, THERE IS
STILL A PRONOUNCED DRY LAYER AT THE SURFACE. SO DESPITE LIGHT
SHOWERS SHOWING UP ON RADAR, IT'S UNLIKELY THIS IS AMOUNTING TO MUCH
MORE THAN A FEW SPRINKLES. LOW RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TUESDAY AS A DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO TRACK THROUGH THE AREA.
DEWPOINTS WILL IMPROVE THROUGH TUESDAY, REACHING INTO THE 50S AND
NEAR 60 BY THE AFTERNOON. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOMETHING MORE THAN A
FEW SPRINKLES, BUT DON'T EXPECT ANYTHING SUBSTANTIAL AS FAR AS RAIN
GOES. THE CHANCE OF GETTING MORE THAN 0.15 INCHES IS AROUND 30-50%.
OTHERWISE, THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES AS HIGHS REACH INTO THE 60S.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1010 PM CST MON DEC 22 2025
LOW RAIN CHANCES PERSIST INTO CHRISTMAS EVE WITH ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
EMBEDDED IN THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. NOTHING HAZARDOUS IS
EXPECTED WITH AGAIN JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS BEING MANAGED OUT OF ANY
SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THEIR UPWARD TREND,
WARMING INTO THE UPPER-60S AND NEAR 70. YOU'LL BE WARM IN YOUR
CHRISTMAS SWEATER THURSDAY AS HIGHS REACH INTO THE LOW-70S - AROUND
20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. NASHVILLE'S CHRISTMAS DAY TEMPERATURE
RECORD OF 76 (LAST SET IN 2021) IS LIKELY SAFE AS THE NBM
PROBABILITY OF REACHING AT LEAST THIS IS LOW AT AROUND 10%. THE GOOD
NEWS IS DESPITE THIS ABNORMAL WARMTH THAT NOTHING IMPACTFUL IS
EXPECTED FOR THE HOLIDAY. LOW RAIN CHANCES AMOUNTING TO JUST ANOTHER
FEW HUNDREDTHS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST MAINLY FOR THE PLATEAU, BUT
MOST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY.
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER-60S TO 70S WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS
PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY. THEN A PATTERN CHANGE ARRIVES SATURDAY
NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY AS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW TRACKS TO OUR NORTH AND
SENDS A COLD FRONT THROUGH MIDDLE TN. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
SHARPLY BACK DOWN TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO BE
RESPONSIBLE FOR RAIN RETURNING BY LATE WEEKEND. LOTS OF
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING DETAILS ON TIMING AND IMPACTS THIS FAR OUT,
BUT THERE IS MODEL CONSENSUS THAT A BREAK FROM THIS WARMTH IS
COMING.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 539 AM CST TUE DEC 23 2025
SHOWERS ARE GOING TO BE A CONCERN THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD TODAY,
WITH WINDS REMAINING IN THE 5-10 KNOTS SUSTAINED CATEGORY, WITH
GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS. CEILINGS WILL FREQUENTLY DIP INTO IFR AND
EVENTUALLY LIFR BY TOMORROW MORNING, WITH SOME VSBY DROPS EXPECTED
DUE TO SHOWERS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 66 58 69 58 / 50 50 20 10
CLARKSVILLE 66 57 69 58 / 60 40 30 10
CROSSVILLE 59 54 65 55 / 30 40 20 20
COLUMBIA 66 58 71 57 / 40 30 10 10
COOKEVILLE 60 55 66 57 / 50 60 40 30
JAMESTOWN 59 53 64 56 / 40 50 30 40
LAWRENCEBURG 66 58 70 56 / 30 20 10 10
MURFREESBORO 65 58 70 57 / 40 40 20 10
WAVERLY 65 58 69 57 / 60 50 20 10
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...CLEMENTS
LONG TERM....CLEMENTS
AVIATION.....HOLLEY
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