324
FXUS64 KOHX 040012
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
712 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2026
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 701 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2026
- DANGEROUS HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH INDEPENDENCE
DAY.
- SCATTERED STORMS COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, TORRENTIAL
DOWNPOURS, AND SMALL HAIL DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
SATURDAY.
- THE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK IS NOT AS HOT, BUT VERY WARM AND
HUMID WITH MEDIUM CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 701 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2026
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS DEVELOPED ACROSS MIDDLE TN THIS AFTERNOON
AFTER A DAY OF EXTREME HEATING AND ABUNDANT AVAILABLE MOISTURE.
STRATIFORM RAIN IS SETTING UP NOW AS THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOSTLY
LIMITED TO THE UPPER CUMBERLAND THIS EVENING, SOME OF WHICH BEING
SEVERE. THESE STORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS
BEFORE WEAKENING AND EVENTUALLY DIMINISHING. ELSEWHERE, SHOWERS
CONTINUE ACROSS MIDDLE TN. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A SLIGHT
DECREASING TREND IN COVERAGE, BUT OVERALL, SHOWERS LOOK TO STICK
AROUND OVER THE NEXT TWO TO THREE HOURS.
WE DRY OUT OVERNIGHT, AND WE BASICALLY REPEAT ALL OVER AGAIN
TOMORROW. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON HOW WIDESPREAD STORMS WILL BE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON, BUT WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING BACK INTO THE
UPPER 90S AND A MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH,
STORMS WILL DEFINITELY BE FIRING OFF ONCE AGAIN THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1050 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2026
OVERALL, ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ARE VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY,
WITH PERHAPS A SMIDGE LESS INSTABILITY TODAY. CAMS DID A PRETTY
GOOD JOB YESTERDAY WITH STORMS FORMING ALONG I-65 THEN DRIFTING
WESTWARD. TODAY, THEY SHOW GENERALLY GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS AREA-WIDE WITH THE MAIN FOCUS ALONG AND JUST EAST OF
I-65. ONCE AGAIN, DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, HAIL, AND LOCAL FLASH
FLOODING WILL BE A CONCERN. CAPE WILL REACH 4,000+ WITH 1,200
DCAPE, ABOVE AVERAGE PW, AND MAINLY COLD-POOL DRIVEN STORM
MOTION/DEVELOPMENT. STORMS WILL DIE OFF PRETTY QUICKLY AROUND
SUNSET. THE DANGEROUS HEAT CONTINUES WITH PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES
REACHING 105-100 AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. TONIGHT WILL BE MUGGY AND
UNCOMFORTABLE WITH LOCAL PATCHY FOG.
AS WE GET TO SATURDAY (INDEPENDENCE DAY), THE UPPER HIGH WILL
WEAKEN AND MOVE EASTWARD. THIS MEANS TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES COOLER. ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL BACK OFF, THE HEAT AND
HUMIDITY COMBINATION WILL KEEP CONDITIONS POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS
WITH SO MANY PEOPLE DOING OUTDOORS STUFF. A HEAT ADVISORY WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE TIL FIREWORKS TIME. THOSE OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES WILL
BE POTENTIALLY IMPACTED BY SCATTERED STORMS. SEVERE PARAMETERS DO
NOT LOOK AS THREATENING FOR SATURDAY, BUT A FEW STRONG STORMS
WITH GUSTY WINDS AND DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE HEAT OF THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. MODELS SUGGEST THE SHOWERS AND STORMS
MAY LINGER A LITTLE LONGER AFTER SUNSET WHICH ISN'T GREAT NEWS
FOR FIREWORKS. WE WILL JUST HAVE TO WAIT AND MONITOR RADAR TRENDS
AT THE TIME.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1050 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2026
HEAT WILL BACK OFF FOR NEXT WEEK AS THE BIG UPPER HIGH IS
REPLACED WITH A GENERAL WEAK TROUGHING PATTERN WITH SOME
DISTURBANCES GLANCING THE AREA. TEMPS AND HUMIDITY WILL BE CLOSER
TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S. EXPECT DAILY
MEDIUM SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE DOESN'T APPEAR TO BE ANY ORGANIZED
SEVERE THREAT, BUT LIKE WE'VE SEEN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS, THE
STRONGEST STORMS MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, SMALL
HAIL, AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 601 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2026
WIDESPREAD STORMS CONTINUE TO IMPACT MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND ALL TAF
SITES. OVERALL INTENSITY HAS DECREASED, BUT NEW DEVELOPMENT IS
NEAR CSV AND SRB. MAIN IMPACTS FROM RA AND TSRA SHOULD SUBSIDE BY
~02Z. BNA WILL HAVE LINGERING RA AND VCTS MAINLY, BUT IMPROVING
CONDITIONS ARE BEING SEEN ON RECENT METARS.
SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT, BUT LOW CONFIDENCE ON
DEVELOPMENT, SO IS ONLY MENTIONED IN SRB AND CSV TAF AT THIS TIME.
ISO/SCT TS IS FORECAST AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND IT WILL BE HOT
AGAIN, SO PROB30S ARE IN FOR ALL TERMINALS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 72 95 75 94 / 60 30 40 70
CLARKSVILLE 71 95 74 93 / 30 50 30 60
CROSSVILLE 67 90 70 88 / 40 30 40 70
COLUMBIA 71 95 72 93 / 50 30 40 70
COOKEVILLE 69 91 71 90 / 50 30 40 60
JAMESTOWN 69 91 69 89 / 40 30 40 70
LAWRENCEBURG 70 92 72 91 / 50 30 40 70
MURFREESBORO 71 96 73 95 / 50 30 40 70
WAVERLY 72 94 73 92 / 40 50 30 70
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TNZ005>010-
023>032-056>064-075-093>095.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR TNZ005>010-023>032-
056>064-075-093>095.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR TNZ011-033-034-065-066-
077>080.
UPDATE.......CRAVENS
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION.....SIZEMORE
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