802
FXUS64 KOHX 111145
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
645 AM CDT WED MAR 11 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 634 AM CDT WED MAR 11 2026
- A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OUT OF 5) FOR SEVERE STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE MOST LIKELY
HAZARD, WITH TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE.
- COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS THURSDAY, THEN WARMING UP FOR THE
WEEKEND.
- SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT LATE SUNDAY FOLLOWED
BY A HARD FREEZE MONDAY NIGHT.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1041 PM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING ALONG WITH WARM, MOIST AIR PRESENT ACROSS MIDDLE
TN, LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE. ANY STORMS
THAT DO DEVELOP ARE EXPECTED TO BE DISORGANIZED AND ONLY
PRIMARILY CAPABLE OF HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS.
THE SEVERE WEATHER RISK WILL INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY, HOWEVER. CURRENT
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS TWO UPPER-LEVEL WAVES - ONE OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND ANOTHER IN NORTHERN MEXICO. BOTH OF THESE
FEATURES WILL TRACK EAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY, STEERING A STRONG UPPER-
LEVEL JET OVERHEAD WHICH ALLOWS FOR THE SURFACE LOW NEAR THE GREAT
LAKES AREA TO INTENSIFY. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT, A BROKEN LINE OF
STORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING WEDNESDAY MORNING OVER THE
ARKANSAS/LOUISIANA AREA AND WILL BE APPROACHING MIDDLE TN BY LATE
MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THIS LINE, WARM, MOIST AIR
WILL STILL BE IN PLACE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S AND TEMPERATURES
WARMING INTO THE MID AND UPPER-70S. IN THIS WARM SECTOR, SBCAPE
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM AROUND 500 J/KG AT MINIMUM TO
AROUND 1500 J/KG AT BEST WITH MORE CLOUD BREAKS AND SUN. BULK
SHEAR WON'T BE AN ISSUE WITH 50-60 KNOTS, AND THIS ENVIRONMENT
WILL SUPPORT DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL AS THE MAIN THREATS WITH THE
QLCS. CAMS DO SHOW ADEQUATE LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR WITH CURVED
HODOGRAPHS TO MAINTAIN A LOW TORNADO THREAT. PWAT VALUES NEAR 1.5
INCHES ALSO EASILY EXCEED THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF
THE YEAR WITH MEANS THAT HEAVY RAIN WILL BE ANOTHER CONCERN WITH
THESE STORMS. WHILE 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN IS STILL FORECAST, LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WHICH MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING
OF STREETS AND LOW-LYING AREAS.
THE BIGGEST NOTABLE CHANGE WITH LATEST CAMS IS TIMING. THE HRRR
AND A FEW OTHER CAMS ARE TRENDING THE TIMING OF THIS LINE EARLIER
THAN PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED - PERHAPS NEARING THE TN RIVER SHORTLY
BEFORE NOON. THIS TREND WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY, BUT THE
AFTERNOON STILL LOOKS LIKE THE BEST TIME FRAME FOR SEVERE
POTENTIAL.
THE OTHER QUESTION IS STILL IF MORE DISCRETE STORMS WILL BE ABLE
TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE. IF SO, THEN THEY COULD POSE AN
INCREASED TORNADO THREAT. AND THEY MAY ALSO REDUCE THE AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY PRESENT FOR THE MAIN LINE OF STORMS. SEVERE POTENTIAL
SHOULD WANE BY 10 PM WITH RAIN COMING TO AN END AROUND MIDNIGHT.
BEHIND THE FRONT, TEMPERATURES WILL FALL WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO
THE 30S BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1041 PM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
DRY CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE THURSDAY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AS
HIGHS REACH INTO THE 50S. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE GUSTY IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT AT AROUND 20 MPH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUICK TO
REBOUND FRIDAY AND SATURDAY THOUGH WITH HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE 60S
AND ON SATURDAY IN THE 70S WITH DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING. BY
SUNDAY, ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES, SENDING A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH MIDDLE TN
LATE IN THE DAY. THIS BRINGS HIGH RAIN CHANCES TO THE AREA LATE
SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY MONDAY. WITH IT STILL BEING SEVERAL DAYS
OUT, CONFIDENCE IN ANY SEVERE THREAT IS LOW. BUT THE FRONT WILL BE
RESPONSIBLE FOR ANOTHER SHARP DROP IN TEMPERATURES WITH LOWS
MONDAY MORNING FALLING NEAR THE FREEZING MARK AND ONLY WARMING
INTO THE 40S THAT AFTERNOON. THESE CHILLY TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY WORK WEEK WITH DRY CONDITIONS.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 634 AM CDT WED MAR 11 2026
THIS TAF PERIOD WILL BE QUITE ACTIVE WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, INCLUDING POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS. THE MAIN
ACTION IS EXPECTED BETWEEN 18Z-03Z WITH A BAND OR SEVERAL BROKEN
BANDS OF STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION. OTHERWISE, SOME SMALLER
BANDS OR INDIVIDUAL CELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE. SSW WINDS WILL BE
GUSTY, FREQUENTLY TO 30KT AND STRONGER NEAR STORMS. AFTER FROPA
THIS EVENING, WINDS WILL BECOME NW WHILE REMAINING GUSTY TO 25KT.
MAINLY MVFR CIGS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 80 38 56 38 / 90 90 0 0
CLARKSVILLE 77 36 55 38 / 90 60 0 0
CROSSVILLE 76 35 51 33 / 60 90 0 0
COLUMBIA 79 37 56 36 / 90 90 0 0
COOKEVILLE 76 37 52 35 / 80 100 0 0
JAMESTOWN 77 34 50 33 / 70 90 0 0
LAWRENCEBURG 78 37 55 36 / 80 90 0 0
MURFREESBORO 79 38 55 36 / 80 100 0 0
WAVERLY 77 37 56 39 / 90 80 0 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...CLEMENTS
LONG TERM....CLEMENTS
AVIATION.....13
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