778
FXUS64 KOHX 202333
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
533 PM CST THU NOV 20 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 533 PM CST THU NOV 20 2025
- PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH LATE
SATURDAY MORNING.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TUESDAY.
- MILD TEMPERATURES LASTING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, THEN TURNING
SHARPLY COLDER BY THANKSGIVING.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1028 AM CST THU NOV 20 2025
A BOUNDARY IS LIFTING NORTH THROUGH MIDDLE TN THIS AFTERNOON
PROVIDING OUR FIRST ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SATELLITE
IS PICKING UP ON SOME LIGHTNING ACTIVITY BUT NOT MUCH OVERALL. OUR
NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE CROSSING THE TN RIVER
AND WILL PROGRESS EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LATEST
ACARS SHOW THAT INSTABILITY IS LACKING WHILE LAPSE RATES REMAIN
BELOW 6 C/KM, SO NOT EXPECTING ANY STRONG STORMS. LIGHT SHOWERS
LINGER TONIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY. THE SET UP LOOKS SIMILAR SO ONLY EXPECTING
GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES REMAIN MILD, CLIMBING INTO THE
LOW 70S FRIDAY. OVERALL, JUST A CLOUDY AND RAINY TWO DAYS HERE
BEFORE A BREAK IN THE RAIN FOR THE WEEKEND.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1028 AM CST THU NOV 20 2025
SOME SHOWERS LINGER SATURDAY MORNING, BUT OVERALL, MOSTLY DRY
WEATHER DEVELOPS OVER THE WEEKEND AS AN AREA OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE DEVELOPS. TEMPERATURES REMAIN MILD IN THE 60S, BUT COOLER
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S. A SURFACE LOW THEN LIFTS OUT OF TX AND
PASSES TO OUR NW THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK. THIS BRINGS ANOTHER FRONT
THROUGH MIDDLE TN MONDAY AND TUESDAY. ONCE AGAIN, NOT SEE MUCH OF
A CONCERN FOR ANY SEVERE WEATHER, WITH BETTER DYNAMICS TO OUR
SOUTH. AT THIS TIME THINKING JUST ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS WITH A LOW CHANCE FOR ANY STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THEN SURGES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, USHERING IN MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR THE
THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 533 PM CST THU NOV 20 2025
A VERY UNFAVORABLE TAF PERIOD AHEAD, WITH CONDITIONS OSCILLATING
BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR OR WORSE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. SHRA
CONTINUES TO BE A POSSIBILITY OVERNIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW
AFTERNOON, WITH LIGHT WINDS AROUND 5 KNOTS. MAIN CONCERNS ARE
CEILINGS BEING BELOW 010 AT MANY LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT AND THEN VSBY
CONCERNS WITH FOG AND SHRA.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 61 73 59 66 / 80 60 90 20
CLARKSVILLE 59 72 56 63 / 90 90 90 20
CROSSVILLE 57 68 56 63 / 90 60 90 30
COLUMBIA 61 73 60 69 / 60 60 80 10
COOKEVILLE 59 69 58 64 / 90 60 100 30
JAMESTOWN 57 69 56 62 / 90 70 100 30
LAWRENCEBURG 60 72 60 70 / 60 50 80 10
MURFREESBORO 61 73 60 68 / 80 60 90 20
WAVERLY 59 71 56 64 / 70 80 80 10
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...CRAVENS
LONG TERM....CRAVENS
AVIATION.....HOLLEY
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