083
FXUS64 KOHX 081121
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
521 AM CST THU JAN 8 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 521 AM CST THU JAN 8 2026
- NEAR-RECORD HIGHS POSSIBLE TODAY AND TOMORROW, COLDER WEATHER
RETURNS SATURDAY.
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL COULD CAUSE FLOODING FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
MORNING.
- LOW CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT, BUT A FEW STRONG STORMS CAN'T BE RULED OUT.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1008 PM CST WED JAN 7 2026
A BRIEF PERIOD OF ACTIVE WEATHER SETS UP ACROSS MIDDLE TN THROUGH
SATURDAY. MAIN THREATS INCLUDE A LOW END SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ON
FRIDAY AND A FLOODING POTENTIAL HEADING INTO SATURDAY FROM
PROLONGED HEAVY RAINFALL. ADDITIONALLY, INCREASED PRESSURE
GRADIENTS AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING FRONT WILL CAUSE GUSTY WINDS TODAY
AND TONIGHT.
ALOFT, A RIDGE BECOMES DISPLACED TO THE EAST AS A DEEPENING TROUGH
OVER THE WESTERN US DIGS TO THE EAST TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. A RELATED SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS AND
MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES AREA BY FRIDAY MORNING, ALONG WITH A
FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. WARM MOIST
AIR WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S THIS
AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY. DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO BE ON THE RISE, REACHING
WIDESPREAD MID 60S FRIDAY.
A WARM FRONT IS FORECASTED TO LIFT NORTH THROUGH MIDDLE TN THIS
EVENING INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BRING OUR FIRST ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE WARM FRONT THEN STALLS TO OUR EAST
KEEPING MIDDLE TN UNDER A WARM MOIST AIRMASS WITH AMPLE WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND STRONG MID-LEVEL FLOW. THIS WILL LIKELY SUPPORT
TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY. THE SEVERE THREAT REMAINS UNCERTAIN
WITH QUESTIONS REVOLVING AROUND LIMITED INSTABILITY AND MARGINAL
LAPSE RATES FRIDAY. THAT BEING SAID, THERE WILL BE STRONG SHEAR
ALLOWING FOR SOME STORMS TO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE WITH A LOW END
TORNADO THREAT. WE WILL NEED TO CONTINUE MONITORING LATEST MODEL
RUNS AND TRENDS TO GET A BETTER GRASP OF THE SEVERE POTENTIAL ON
FRIDAY.
I WOULD ARGUE THAT THE GREATER CONCERN AT THIS TIME WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. CONFIDENCE IS
HIGH THAT WE WILL SEE PROLONGED HEAVY RAINFALL. LATEST THINKING IS
THAT WE WILL SEE BETWEEN 1 TO 3.5 INCHES BY SATURDAY. HIGHEST
ACCUMULATIONS ARE FAVORED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA,
IN PARTICULAR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLATEAU AND TN/AL
BORDER. WPC HAS INCLUDED PORTIONS OF OUR CWA UNDER A SLIGHT RISK
FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WHERE LOCALIZED REGIONS OF 5+ INCHES OF
RAINFALL POSSIBLE.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1008 PM CST WED JAN 7 2026
COME SATURDAY, A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA BRINGING COLD
AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND
THE FRONT AND SKIES CLEAR OUT, OFFERING SOME MUCH NEEDED SUNSHINE
AND DRYING CONDITIONS. DAYTIME HIGHS ARE FORECASTED IN THE 40S
AND 50S THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS DROPPING INTO THE
20S AND 30S.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 521 AM CST THU JAN 8 2026
SOME PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED AROUND CKV, MAKING IT OUR ONLY TAF
SITE AFFECTED BY FOG THIS MORNING. LOW MVFR CLOUDS ARE PRESENT IN
MIDDLE TENNESSEE, AND WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD OVER THE AREA
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH,
WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS. HIGHER WINDS WILL REMAIN THROUGHOUT THE
TAF PERIOD, AHEAD OF SOME RAIN AND TSRA NEXT TAF PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 71 63 70 57 / 10 60 100 90
CLARKSVILLE 71 63 70 52 / 10 80 90 80
CROSSVILLE 64 56 62 55 / 0 20 100 100
COLUMBIA 70 61 70 56 / 10 50 100 100
COOKEVILLE 66 59 65 56 / 10 40 100 100
JAMESTOWN 64 57 64 55 / 0 20 100 100
LAWRENCEBURG 69 61 68 58 / 10 50 100 100
MURFREESBORO 71 62 69 57 / 10 50 100 100
WAVERLY 69 61 70 52 / 10 80 90 90
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR TNZ005-
023>025-056>061-075-077-079-093>095.
SHORT TERM...CRAVENS
LONG TERM....CRAVENS
AVIATION.....HOLLEY
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