967
FXUS64 KOHX 281731
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1231 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1228 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2026
- DANGEROUS HEAT AND HUMIDITY MONDAY THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK (AND
POSSIBLY INTO THE WEEKEND). AN EXTREME HEAT WARNING IS IN
EFFECT MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY FOR MIDDLE TN, WEST OF THE
PLATEAU.
- HIGHS THIS WEEK IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S WITH AFTERNOON HEAT
INDEX VALUES AS HOT AS 110. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO REMAIN WARM
ONLY FALLING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
- HOT CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH LOW
AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2026
OUR FOCUS IS NOW GOING TO TURN TO DANGEROUS HEAT OVER THE NEXT
WEEK. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXITING THE EASTERN PART OF THE
STATE AND AS IT DOES WE WILL SEE DRY CONDITIONS SET IN. THERE WILL
BE JUST A LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW POP UP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH 6 PM. HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL REACH THE LOWER 90S WITH
AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES AS HOT AS 106.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HAS ALREADY STARTED TO AMPLIFY OVER THE
CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY AND WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING DANGEROUS HEAT TO THE AREA STARTING
MONDAY AND WILL LAST AT LEAST THROUGH FRIDAY. MONDAY HIGHS WILL
WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S. DEW POINTS WILL BE HUMID IN THE
LOW TO MID 70S PUSHING AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES AS HOT AS 110.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2026
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY AND BE CENTERED
OVER MIDDLE TN THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK. THIS
WILL BRING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF VERY HOT TEMPERATURES. HIGHS
THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S AND
AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE AS HOT AS 110. THERE WILL BE
LIMITED RELIEF FROM THE HEAT OVERNIGHT AS LOWS WILL ONLY FALL INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 70S. THIS HEAT AND DURATION WILL BRING EXTREME
HEAT RISK TO MUCH OF MIDDLE TN BY TUESDAY AND WILL REMAIN EXTREME AT
LEAST THROUGH FRIDAY. EXTREME HEAT RISK MEANS THAT THERE IS RARE
AND OR LONG DURATION EXTREME HEAT WITH LITTLE TO NO OVERNIGHT
RELIEF AFFECTING ANYONE WITHOUT COOLING/HYDRATION AS WELL AS
HEALTH SYSTEMS, INDUSTRIES, AND INFRASTRUCTURE.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DRIFT EAST LATE WEEK AND START TO
BREAK DOWN SOME NEXT WEEKEND. THAT WILL BRING SOME COOLING FOR THE
4TH OF JULY WEEKEND BUT IT WILL BE LIMITED. HIGHS WILL STILL
REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 90S WITH AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES IN
THE TRIPLE DIGITS. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE JUST TO OUR EAST WE
WILL SEE LOW CHANCES FOR POP UP AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2026
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, WITH POCKETS OF MVFR
STICKING AROUND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE
STARTED INITIATING OVER THE PLATEAU AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE GENERALLY LIGHT WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS. SOME
FOG POTENTIAL FOR SRB/CSV TONIGHT DUE TO RECENT RAIN AND CLEARING
SKIES OVERNIGHT. WIDESPREAD VFR AFTER 12Z MONDAY WITH LIGHT SW
WINDS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 76 96 77 98 / 0 0 0 0
CLARKSVILLE 75 96 75 97 / 0 0 0 0
CROSSVILLE 70 88 71 91 / 20 10 0 10
COLUMBIA 74 97 75 98 / 0 0 0 0
COOKEVILLE 72 90 73 92 / 10 10 0 10
JAMESTOWN 70 89 71 92 / 20 10 0 10
LAWRENCEBURG 73 94 75 95 / 0 0 0 10
MURFREESBORO 74 96 76 98 / 0 0 0 0
WAVERLY 74 96 75 97 / 0 0 0 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TNZ005>008-023>028-
056>062-075-093>095.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM 11 AM MONDAY TO 8 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR
TNZ005>010-023>032-056>064-075-093>095.
SHORT TERM...MUELLER
LONG TERM....MUELLER
AVIATION.....CRAVENS
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