303
FXUS64 KOHX 081740
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1240 PM CDT MON JUN 8 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1235 PM CDT MON JUN 8 2026
- PERIODIC SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEK WITH LOW SEVERE
STORM CHANCES.
- BIGGEST CONCERN REVOLVES AROUND A MEDIUM FLASH FLOODING
POTENTIAL.
- HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS THIS WEEK AS HEAT INDICES REACH THE
90S EARLY WEEK AND EVEN NEAR 100 BY MID WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1148 AM CDT MON JUN 8 2026
AN ACTIVE PATTERN REMAINS OVER MIDDLE TN WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. KEY CONCERNS WILL BE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH
FLOODING POTENTIAL. AMPLE MOISTURE (PWATS GREATER THAN 2 INCHES)
COMBINED WITH WEAK WINDS ALOFT FAVOR TRAINING OR SLOW-MOVING
STORMS. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT REMAINS LOW, BUT ISOLATED STRONG
STORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS (BEST CHANCES WEST OF I-65).
HIGH CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S THIS AFTERNOON, WITH MUGGY
CONDITIONS. OVERNIGHT LOWS ONLY DROP INTO THE LOW-MID 70S.
TUESDAY REMAINS WET AS SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE TO WORK THEIR
WAY THROUGH THE AREA. GREATEST COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE THROUGHOUT THE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH LATEST DETERMINISTIC MODEL
RUNS ARE TRENDING DOWN ON OVERALL RAINFALL AMOUNTS, THE HRRR AND
REFS LOCALIZED PROBABILITY MATCHED MEAN SOLUTIONS ARE STILL
HIGHLIGHTING AN AREA OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACROSS THE NW. THIS
GIVES US A LOW PROBABILITY, BUT POTENTIAL FOR HIGH IMPACT
SITUATION ACROSS MIDDLE TN. WITH THAT, THE ACTIVE FLOOD WATCH
WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1148 AM CDT MON JUN 8 2026
THIS PATTERN PERSISTS THROUGH EARLY TO MID WEEK BEFORE A STRONGER
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS. EXPECT DAILY CHANCES FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS DRIVEN BY DIURNAL
HEATING AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE, THROUGH COVERAGE SHOULD DECREASE
THROUGH THE WEEK.
A HUMID AND WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD. HIGHS
CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S BY MID TO LATE WEEK, WITH HEAT
INDICES FREQUENTLY IN THE MID 90S TO NEAR 100+. OVERNIGHT LOWS
STAY IN THE 70S. MAKE SURE TO STAY HYDRATED AND USE CAUTION WITH
HEAT SENSITIVE ACTIVITIES. NO MAJOR PATTERN BREAK IS EVIDENT AT
THIS TIME, BUT ENSEMBLES SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR SLIGHTLY DRIER AND
COOLER CONDITIONS BY LATE NEXT WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT MON JUN 8 2026
TAFS ARE A MESS WITH NOT A GREAT DEAL OF CONFIDENCE REGARDING
TIMING OF EXPECTED SHOWERS DURING THE NEXT 24 HRS. WE DO EXPECT
SCATTERED CONVECTION TO AFFECT AREAS GENERALLY WEST OF THE
CUMBERLAND PLATEAU DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS OWING TO A NEARLY
SATURATED AIR MASS ALONG WITH MODEST INSTABILITY. SCATTERED
SHOWERS MAY LAST INTO THE EVENING ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
MID STATE, WHILE CEILINGS AREA-WIDE DETERIORATE. LOOK FOR MAINLY
LIGHT CONVECTION TO RESUME LATER TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY TOMORROW
ACROSS THE BULK OF THE REGION WITH CEILINGS SLOW TO IMPROVE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 71 89 73 93 / 60 80 10 10
CLARKSVILLE 72 88 74 91 / 90 70 10 0
CROSSVILLE 66 81 68 84 / 30 70 20 30
COLUMBIA 71 89 71 91 / 40 60 10 10
COOKEVILLE 68 84 70 87 / 30 80 20 20
JAMESTOWN 66 83 68 87 / 30 80 30 30
LAWRENCEBURG 70 86 71 88 / 30 50 10 10
MURFREESBORO 70 89 72 92 / 40 60 10 10
WAVERLY 72 89 74 92 / 80 70 10 10
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR TNZ005>011-023>034-
056>066-075-077>080-093>095.
SHORT TERM...CRAVENS
LONG TERM....CRAVENS
AVIATION.....ROSE
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page