739
FXUS64 KOHX 220511
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1211 AM CDT WED JUL 22 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1208 AM CDT WED JUL 22 2026
- COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARRIVE WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, THOUGH A SHOWER OR TWO CAN'T BE
RULED OUT SOUTH OF I-40 WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
- MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. NO SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1045 PM CDT TUE JUL 21 2026
ON THE WHOLE, THINGS ARE FINALLY STARTING TO CALM DOWN. WE STILL
HAVE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF I-40 AND WEST OF I-24 THAT ARE DROOPING
SOUTHWARD AND WILL LIKELY HOLD TOGETHER ALL THE WAY INTO ALABAMA.
HOWEVER, EVEN THOUGH THERE'S STILL LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAIN WITH
THEM, THE SEVERE THREAT IS ALL BUT OVER. I'LL ASSESS THE NEED FOR
CONTINUING THE CURRENT SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AND I MAY BE ABLE
TO CANCEL IT EARLY. IN THE END, WE HAD A FEW SIGNIFICANT WIND
REPORTS, BUT THIS ENDED UP BEING A MUCH MORE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING
EVENT. MULTIPLE AREAS IN THE NASHVILLE METRO AREA SAW FLOODED
PARKING LOTS, ROADS AND A COUPLE WATER RESCUES. AS WE WRAP UP THIS
EVENT, THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THESE STORMS IS EXPECTED TO SLOW TO
A CRAWL OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. WHILE THE SEVERE THREAT WILL
COME TO AN END, FOLKS SOUTH OF I-40 WILL SEE AT LEAST A FEW SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. HOWEVER, THE BIGGER STORY WILL BE THE
COOLER TEMPERATURES. LOW TO MID 80S ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY, WHICH
WILL BE AN AMAZING BREAK FROM THE HEAT OF THE LAST FEW DAYS.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1045 PM CDT TUE JUL 21 2026
BY FRIDAY, WE START TO SEE SOME ADDITIONAL ENERGY INTERACT WITH THIS
BOUNDARY NEAR THE AL/TN STATE LINE. THIS WILL BRING RAIN CHANCES
BACK TO THE AREA AND KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE
FIRST PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE BEST/MOST WIDESPREAD RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. AT THIS TIME, I DON'T
SEE ANY SEVERE WEATHER INDICATORS.
ONCE THE RAIN TAPERS OFF SATURDAY EVENING, LONG TERM GUIDANCE IS
SUGGESTING THE INFLUENCES OF RIDGING OVER THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY
SHOULD SHUT OFF OUR RAIN CHANCES AND START TO INCREASE
TEMPERATURES. THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THIS HAPPENING,
SO FINE TUNING WILL BE NEEDED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
REGARDING THE FORECAST FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO THE
START OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1208 AM CDT WED JUL 22 2026
STORMS HAVE MOVED AWAY FROM OUR MID-STATE TERMINALS FOR THE NIGHT.
WHILE CURRENTLY VFR, MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS
EXCEPT CKV. BNA/MQY MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL 11-12Z, BUT CSV/SRB WILL
SEE MVFR TO IFR CIGS BY 08Z AND SHOULD STICK AROUND UNTIL SHORTLY
BEFORE LUNCHTIME. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND NORTHERLY ON WEDNESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 88 66 84 66 / 10 0 0 0
CLARKSVILLE 86 62 83 62 / 0 0 0 0
CROSSVILLE 82 62 81 63 / 60 20 10 0
COLUMBIA 88 66 85 64 / 20 0 0 0
COOKEVILLE 84 63 81 63 / 40 10 0 0
JAMESTOWN 83 61 81 61 / 50 10 0 0
LAWRENCEBURG 87 66 84 65 / 40 10 0 0
MURFREESBORO 88 66 85 65 / 30 0 0 0
WAVERLY 87 64 83 63 / 10 0 0 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR TNZ008>011-024>034-
056>066-075-077-078-080-093>095.
SHORT TERM...UNGER
LONG TERM....UNGER
AVIATION.....UNGER
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