489
FXUS64 KOHX 260535
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1235 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1228 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2026
- MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EACH
DAY THIS WEEK. DRIER PATTERN NEXT WEEK.
- NEW RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1-3 INCHES WITH LOCALIZED GREATER AMOUNTS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. BRIEF, LOCALIZED FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE WITH THE HEAVIER DOWNPOURS.
- NO ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED, BUT A FEW STRONG STORMS
ARE POSSIBLE, MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE THE MAIN THREATS.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2026
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW REMAINS SITUATED NEAR THE ARKLATEX AND AN
EMBEDDED VORT MAX IS NOW IN NORTHERN ALABAMA MOVING TOWARD MIDDLE
TENNESSEE. THESE FEATURES ARE IMPORTANT AS THEY BOTH PLACE
FAVORABLE FORCING FOR ASCENT IN THE REGION WITHIN A PLUME OF
ANOMALOUS MOISTURE THAT IS STRETCHED FROM THE GULF COAST INTO
KENTUCKY WHERE A STATIONARY FRONT SITS ALONG THE OHIO RIVER.
ROUNDS OF RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS ON TUESDAY AS A RESULT, AND MOST ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED DURING
THE EARLY TO MID MORNING HOURS AS THE VORT MAX TO OUR SOUTH MOVES
THROUGH THE MID STATE. HI-RES GUIDANCE INDICATES DECREASING
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE VORT MAX MOVES INTO
KENTUCKY, BUT THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DESPITE THE LOWER POP.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY WITH A LOW PRESSURE/RESIDUAL UPPER-LOW NOW TO
OUR NORTH WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE.
AFTERNOON INSTABILITY AND WEAK DEEP-LAYER WIND SHEAR COULD
SUPPORT A FEW STRONGER STORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2026
FAVORABLE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL STICK AROUND ACROSS MIDDLE
TENNESSEE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TO SUPPORT DIURNAL RAIN CHANCES.
HIGHEST COVERAGE IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE GUIDANCE IS FAVORING THE POSITION OF A
RESIDUAL SURFACE BOUNDARY, THOUGH MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES COULD ALSO
BE IN PLAY. DRIER AIR WILL BE LOOMING JUST OFF TO OUR NORTH ON
FRIDAY. ADDITIONAL RAIN/STORM CHANCES ARE FORECAST THIS WEEKEND,
BUT POP IS GRADUALLY LOWERING THROUGH THIS TIME AS THERE'S
ENSEMBLE SUPPORT FOR LOWER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH A
SURFACE HIGH SITTING TO OUR NORTH. THIS DRIER AIR MASS MAY WORK
INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WHEN AN UPPER-
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NORTHEAST SOUTHWARD INTO THE MID
APPALACHIANS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1230 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2026
A SYSTEM IS MOVING INTO MIDDLE TENNESSE TONIGHT THAT WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING COVERAGE OF -RA AND SHRA INTO THE MID MORNING HOURS
WITH LIGHT WINDS. THE SYSTEM WILL ALSO CAUSE LOWER CIGS THROUGH
THIS SAME TIME PERIOD. MVFR CIGS ARE MOST LIKELY, BUT IFR CIG/VIS
WILL BE POSSIBLE 09-15Z WITH HIGHEST COVERAGE OF SHRA. ACTIVITY IS
FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH INTO KY LATE MORNING, SO IMPROVING CIGS
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE. VFR COULD RETURN AT MOST/ALL
SITES AS A RESULT. HOWEVER, SCT SHRA & ISO TS ARE FORECAST DURING
THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW FOR TAF
INCLUSION AT THIS TIME. AFTERNOON WINDS WILL BE S AT 5-10 KTS,
PERHAPS A FEW GUSTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 81 67 84 67 / 80 50 70 40
CLARKSVILLE 80 66 83 66 / 90 30 50 20
CROSSVILLE 76 63 77 62 / 80 60 90 40
COLUMBIA 82 66 83 66 / 60 50 70 40
COOKEVILLE 79 65 80 64 / 70 60 90 50
JAMESTOWN 78 63 80 61 / 80 60 90 40
LAWRENCEBURG 80 66 81 66 / 60 60 80 40
MURFREESBORO 82 66 84 66 / 60 50 80 40
WAVERLY 81 66 83 67 / 90 40 60 50
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...SIZEMORE
LONG TERM....SIZEMORE
AVIATION.....SIZEMORE
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