727
FXUS64 KOHX 211706
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1206 PM CDT TUE APR 21 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1205 PM CDT TUE APR 21 2026
- NO RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THURSDAY; WE WILL ENJOY PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
- A MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL EMERGE ON FRIDAY AND/OR
SATURDAY WHEN STORMS WITH LOW RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS MAY DEVELOP.
- THERE IS A MEDIUM RISK OF SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE MID-STATE ON
MONDAY AFTERNOON/MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SIGNIFICANT
COLD FRONT. THIS MAY INCLUDE THE RISK OF TORNADOES, DAMAGING
STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1031 AM CDT TUE APR 21 2026
YET ANOTHER FANTASTIC DAY IS UNDER WAY ACROSS MIDDLE TN. MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES, AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S, LOW DEW POINTS AND A
BIT OF A BREEZE. CAN WE BOTTLE THIS, PLEASE? MORE OF THE SAME IS
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE ONLY DIFFERENCE WILL BE IT
WON'T FEEL AS DRY. WEAK SOUTHERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL DEVELOP
AND ALLOW DEW POINTS TO CLIMB A LITTLE AND IT'LL BE A LITTLE WARMER
EACH DAY. IN THE END, NO RAIN THROUGH THURSDAY.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1031 AM CDT TUE APR 21 2026
AS WE'VE BEEN TALKING ABOUT THE LAST DAY OR TWO, RAIN CHANCES WILL
REENTER THE FORECAST ACROSS THE MID-STATE ON FRIDAY. LET'S LET THAT
SOAK IN FOR A MINUTE AND NOT LOOK PAST FRIDAY OR SATURDAY TO WHAT
MANY ARE ALREADY HIGHLIGHTING ON THE SOCIAL MEDIAS: MONDAY. WE'LL
TALK ABOUT THAT IN A MINUTE. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NEED TO BE TALKED
ABOUT FIRST. NOW, YES. I DON'T LIKE EITHER DAY AS MUCH AS I'M
STARTING TO LIKE MONDAY FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL. THEY'RE BOTH GOING TO
BE MORE CONDITIONAL, MOSTLY BASED ON WHAT'S GOING ON UPSTREAM FROM
US. HOWEVER, ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP UPSTREAM AND MOVE INTO MIDDLE
TN FRIDAY EVENING ARE GOING TO BE MOVING INTO AN ENVIRONMENT THAT
HONESTLY, I WOULDN'T IGNORE. WE DO HAVE CAPE, WHILE MARGINAL,
AVAILABLE TO USE. SHEAR IS LOOKING BETTER THAN IT DID YESTERDAY AND
SO ARE LAPSE RATES. ENOUGH SO THAT, AS OF RIGHT NOW, THERE IS AT
LEAST A MARGINAL WIND THREAT. OBVIOUSLY THIS CAN CHANGE, BUT I DON'T
WANT US TO LOOK PAST IT BECAUSE SPC HAS A DAY 7 OUTLOOK FOR MIDDLE
TN. THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT THIS COULD BE A FRIDAY EVENING
THING ONLY, AS SATURDAY'S SURFACE WINDS MAY BE OUT OF THE THE NORTH
(NEGATING ANY REAL SEVERE THREAT), SO LET'S WATCH THIS ONE FIRST.
OK, MONDAY. MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT A NEGATIVELY
TILTED TROUGH EJECTING OUT OF THE PLAINS ON MONDAY AND INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. AS IT DOES SO, AMPLE GULF MOISTURE WILL STREAM
INTO THE TN VALLEY. LOW TO MID-60S DEW POINTS SHOULD ENCOMPASS
MIDDLE TN MONDAY AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE DROOLABLE FOR
THE AVERAGE FORECASTER: AN EARLY-DAY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT, 1500-2000
J/KG CAPE, MID-7S LAPSE RATES, ALONG WITH HEALTHY AND UPDRAFT-
SUSTAINING SHEAR VALUES MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVENING.
THESE TYPE OF NUMBERS LEAD TO CALCULATED PARAMETERS LIKE STP (2-3)
AND SUPERCELL COMPOSITE (9-10) FOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF I-65
MONDAY. FOR THE LAST TWO WEEKS, WE'VE BEEN WATCHING THE MIDDLE OF
THE COUNTRY GET HAMMERED WITH SEVERE WEATHER AND IT MIGHT BE OUR
TURN. I LIKE TO TALK ABOUT LIMITING FACTORS WHEN IT COMES TO
SEVERE WEATHER ALSO, AND I ONLY HAVE ONE RIGHT NOW -- IT'S 7 DAYS
OUT. SO, LET'S TAKE THIS ONE STEP AT A TIME AS MANY THING COULD
CHANGE BEFORE NOW AND THEN. FOCUS ON FRIDAY/SATURDAY FIRST, THEN
WE'LL DEAL WITH MONDAY. PLEASE REMAIN WEATHER AWARE AND CHECK BACK
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK ON THE LATEST.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1205 PM CDT TUE APR 21 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS OF 15-20 KNOTS WILL DIMINISH AROUND 00Z, BUT WILL BECOME
GUSTY AGAIN BY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 54 82 56 83 / 0 0 0 0
CLARKSVILLE 52 80 54 83 / 0 0 0 0
CROSSVILLE 50 77 51 78 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBIA 52 82 54 82 / 0 0 0 0
COOKEVILLE 51 78 54 79 / 0 0 0 0
JAMESTOWN 50 78 51 79 / 0 0 0 0
LAWRENCEBURG 52 80 54 81 / 0 0 0 0
MURFREESBORO 51 82 53 83 / 0 0 0 0
WAVERLY 53 81 56 82 / 0 0 0 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...UNGER
LONG TERM....UNGER
AVIATION.....CLEMENTS
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