766
FXUS64 KOHX 151653 AAA
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1153 AM CDT SAT AUG 15 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1149 AM CDT SAT AUG 15 2026
- DANGEROUS HEAT IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH TRIPLE DIGIT
HEAT INDICES ACROSS MOST OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE. THIS IS RESULTING
IN MAJOR TO EXTREME RISK FOR HEAT-RELATED ILLNESSES. PLEASE TAKE
THE NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT YOURSELF AND LOVED ONES
FROM THIS OPPRESSIVE HEAT.
- MEDIUM STORM CHANCES ON MONDAY MAY BRING A DAMAGING WIND RISK
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
- EARLY INDICATIONS HAVE THE EXCESSIVE HEAT AND HUMIDITY OUT OF
MIDDLE TN BY NEXT WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1121 AM CDT SAT AUG 15 2026
OPPRESSIVE HEAT AND HUMIDITY CONTINUE TO BE THE HEADLINE THIS
AFTERNOON. EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS AND HEAT ADVISORIES ARE STILL IN
EFFECT FOR TODAY AND TOMORROW AS HEAT INDEX VALUES REMAIN IN THE 105-
112 RANGE EACH AFTERNOON. THE STINKER IS THE LACK OF OVERNIGHT
RELIEF WITH LOWS ONLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S AND HIGH RH VALUES.
THE BIG PLAYER IN THIS IS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER
ARKLATEX. I GUESS IF YOU'RE LOOKING FOR ANY GOOD NEWS, IT'S THAT THE
RIDGE IS HELPING TO TAMP DOWN RAIN CHANCES. AFTER ALL THE RAIN WE
HAD THE FIRST WEEK OF THE MONTH, THIS PAST WEEK HAS BEEN PRETTY DRY
AND IT LOOKS TO BE THE SAME STORY TODAY AND TOMORROW, AS WELL.
PLEASE TAKE THE NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS IF YOU HAVE TO BE OUTSIDE
TODAY OR TOMORROW. DRINK PLENTY OF WATER AND FIND AIR CONDITIONING
WHENEVER YOU CAN. HEAT ILLNESSES ARE NO JOKE.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1121 AM CDT SAT AUG 15 2026
FOR NOW, THE HEAT HEADLINES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING
AND THEN THE QUESTION BECOMES WHAT TO DO WITH MONDAY. MODELS ARE
PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH THE UPPER RIDGE BEING SQUASHED TO THE SOUTH
ON MONDAY AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING THE MID-STATE BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS MAY ACT TO KEEP HEAT INDEX VALUES MORE IN THE
ADVISORY LEVELS (105-109 DEGREES). THE OTHER THING THAT COULD OCCUR
WITH THE BOUNDARY APPROACHING IS INCREASED CHANCES FOR STORMS. RIGHT
NOW, WE'RE ONLY CARRYING MEDIUM CHANCES FOR STORMS, HOWEVER THIS
MIGHT CHANGE. I'M LOOKING OVER FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND THE TIMING OF
THE BOUNDARY AND I THINK WE COULD END UP SEEING MORE WIDESPREAD
STORM CHANCES. HEALTHY MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES, (OBVIOUSLY) PLENTY OF
INSTABILITY AND 4-DIGIT DCAPE VALUES ALL SMELL LIKE A WIND THREAT TO
ME. THE ONE THING GOING AGAINST THIS IS A LACK OF VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. I'M ONLY SEEING 10-15 KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND DOUBLE
DIGIT HELICITY VALUES. WE'RE GOING TO GET INTO THE CAMS TONIGHT AND
I THINK MONDAY'S PICTURE WILL BECOME A LITTLE CLEARER TOMORROW
MORNING.
A BRIEF RESPITE FROM THE HEAT SHOULD ARRIVE FOR TUESDAY. SOMETHING A
LITTLE CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES FOR SUMMER, BUT AS WEDNESDAY ROLLS
AROUND AND WE GET BACK TO A SOUTHERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW, SOME OF
THAT HEAT RETURNS. DON'T KNOW IF WE'LL SEE ADVISORY LEVEL NUMBERS,
BUT SOMETHING WE'LL NEED TO MONITOR.
BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK, MODELS ARE ACTUALLY IN REALLY GOOD
AGREEMENT RIGHT NOW THAT TEMPERATURES WILL FINALLY RETURN TO NORMAL
FOR A WHILE. HERE'S THE CATCH: IT COULD COME WITH A RETURN IN MORE
WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES. WE'LL HAVE TO SEE HOW IT PANS OUT, BUT A
LARGE SCALE TROUGH COULD HELP US GET OUT OF THIS AWFUL HEAT PATTERN
BY NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1149 AM CDT SAT AUG 15 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH WINDS GENERALLY UNDER 10KTS FOR
THE FORECAST PERIOD. DECIDED TO GO AHEAD AND INCLUDE A PROB30 FOR
TSRA FOR KCSV AS CONVECTION IS ALREADY DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
CUMBERLAND PLATEAU. ONLY OTHER CONCERN WOULD BE BCFG/BR
DEVELOPMENT CLOSE TO SUNRISE FOR KSRB AND KCSV, BUT DID NOT
INCLUDE IN TAF AT THIS TIME AS CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 98 77 99 79 / 0 0 0 0
CLARKSVILLE 97 76 98 77 / 0 0 0 10
CROSSVILLE 90 72 92 73 / 20 0 0 0
COLUMBIA 100 74 100 77 / 0 0 0 0
COOKEVILLE 92 73 93 74 / 20 0 0 10
JAMESTOWN 91 72 91 73 / 20 0 0 10
LAWRENCEBURG 97 74 98 77 / 0 0 0 0
MURFREESBORO 99 74 100 77 / 0 0 0 0
WAVERLY 98 74 99 76 / 0 0 0 10
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR TNZ005>008-
023>030-056>064-075-093>095.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR TNZ009>011-031>034-065-
066-077>080.
SHORT TERM...UNGER
LONG TERM....UNGER
AVIATION.....HURLEY
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