089
FXUS64 KOHX 170328
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1028 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1025 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2026
- SUMMER-LIKE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
HIGHS REACHING THE LOW-90S WEST OF THE PLATEAU.
- MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURN TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1025 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2026
IT'LL BE A QUIET END TO THE WEEKEND WITH THE ONLY NOTABLE THING TO
TALK ABOUT RIGHT NOW IS THE WARMING TEMPERATURES. MANY LOCATIONS
WEST OF THE PLATEAU ARE EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE LOW-90S ON
SUNDAY FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS YEAR. THIS ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH
CONTINUES INTO MONDAY WITH YET ANOTHER DAY OF HIGHS IN THE LOW-90S
WITH DRY CONDITIONS PERSISTING.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1025 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2026
HIGHS NEAR AND INTO THE LOW-90S WILL CONTINUE FOR ONE MORE DAY ON
TUESDAY AHEAD OF OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN RELIEF. BY TUESDAY, A
LARGE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS AND INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF IT WILL BRING IN HIGHER MOISTURE VALUES WITH
PWATS INCREASING TO OVER 1.5 INCHES. THIS BRINGS A HIGH CHANCE FOR
RAIN LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH
EITHER LATE WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY. HOPEFULLY THIS IS DECENT RAIN
WHICH WE DO REALLY NEED. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS ABOUT A 40-50%
CHANCE OF GETTING ABOVE AN INCH BY THURSDAY. IT IS SEVERAL DAYS OUT
STILL TO TALK ABOUT ANY POTENTIAL FOR HAZARDOUS WEATHER, BUT IT
IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE SETUP DOESN'T LOOK FAVORABLE RIGHT NOW
WITH BETTER SHEAR TO THE NORTH AND DISPLACED FROM THE HIGHER
INSTABILITY TO THE SOUTH.
BEHIND THE FRONT, TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO MORE SEASONABLE VALUES
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER-70S TO LOW-80S THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN LATE NEXT WEEK, BUT IT LOOKS
TO REMAIN UNSETTLED ENOUGH TO KEEP LOW TO MEDIUM RAIN CHANCES IN THE
FORECAST BEYOND THURSDAY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 539 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THIS TAF CYCLE. SOUTH WINDS WILL
RELAX TO 10 KTS OR LESS OVERNIGHT THEN BECOME BREEZY AGAIN BY
16-17Z/SUN FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 64 92 68 92 / 10 0 0 0
CLARKSVILLE 64 91 68 91 / 10 0 0 10
CROSSVILLE 59 86 63 85 / 0 0 10 10
COLUMBIA 61 90 66 90 / 0 0 0 0
COOKEVILLE 61 89 66 88 / 0 0 0 10
JAMESTOWN 59 89 64 89 / 0 0 0 10
LAWRENCEBURG 61 88 66 88 / 0 0 0 0
MURFREESBORO 62 92 67 91 / 0 0 0 0
WAVERLY 65 91 68 91 / 10 0 0 10
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...CLEMENTS
LONG TERM....CLEMENTS
AVIATION.....UNGER
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