909
FXUS64 KOHX 242332
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
632 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2026
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 616 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2026
- MEDIUM TO HIGH RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST TONIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY TOMORROW. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED, BUT THERE
IS A VERY LOW FLASH-FLOOD THREAT FOR ANY HEAVY-RAIN PRODUCING
THUNDERSTORMS.
- HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL RESUME NEXT WEEK WITH LOW CHANCES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS SOME AFTERNOONS.
- EXPECT HEAT INDICES IN THE LOW 100S SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOR
MANY LOCATIONS WEST OF THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU. A HEAT ADVISORY
MAY BE NEEDED ON MONDAY AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 616 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2026
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE SHOWING UP IN AREAS MAINLY WEST OF I-65 AS
WE HEAD INTO THE EVENING AS AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES MIDDLE
TENNESSEE FROM THE WEST. GIVEN THE RATHER LARGE DEW POINT SPREADS
STILL SHOWING UP ON THE SURFACE OBS, IT IS LIKELY THAT A LOT OF
THIS PRECIPITATION IS EVAPORATING BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND. BUT
A FEW AREAS MIGHT STILL SEE A LIGHT SHOWER IN THE NEAR-TERM. WE
MAY SEE SOME RE-DEVELOPMENT DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD, BUT
BETTER RAIN AND STORM CHANCES WILL ARRIVE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.
FORTUNATELY, MIDDLE TENNESSEE IS NOT OUTLOOKED FOR ANY SEVERE
WEATHER FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE, BUT THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK
FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR MOST OF THE MID STATE TOMORROW. THIS
WOULD ONLY OCCUR WITH ANY HEAVY-RAIN PRODUCING STORMS AND WOULD
LIKELY BE ISOLATED IN NATURE.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1157 AM CDT FRI JUL 24 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HAS SLID OFF TO THE EAST AS A SHORT WAVE
DIGS INTO THE PLAINS. OVERALL HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
QUIET WEATHER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN.
HIGHS WILL MAKE IT INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S AND OUR DEW POINTS WILL
REMAIN ON THE COMFORTABLE SIDE. THE SHORT WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO
DIG THIS AFTERNOON AND START TO PUSH INTO MIDDLE TN THIS EVENING.
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING INCREASING CLOUDS AND A LOW TO MEDIUM
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. DEW POINTS WILL ALSO SLOWLY START TO INCREASE
WITH THE HIGHER DEW POINTS REALLY BUILDING IN OVERNIGHT AND
TOMORROW MORNING, WE SHOULD SEE THEM REACH THE LOW TO MID 70S BY
THE AFTERNOON. THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES WILL COME OVERNIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING AS THOSE HIGHER DEW POINTS ADVECT INTO
THE REGION. WE WILL SEE SOME WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS AND THIS WILL KEEP THE THUNDERSTORM RISK LOW.
INSTABILITY WILL BECOME SURFACE BASED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
GRADUALLY INCREASE AS THE AFTERNOON GOES ON AND COULD REACH 1000
J/KG BY THE EVENING. WE WILL SEE LESS FORCING DURING THE AFTERNOON
BUT STILL CAN'T RULE OUT A LOW CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. BULK SHEAR WILL BE 20-30 KNOTS BUT LAPSE RATES WILL
BE LESS THAN 6 C/KM. WITH THE WEAK FORCING AND POOR LAPSE RATES
STRONG STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED. PWATS WILL CLIMB BACK TO AROUND
2.0" BY THE MID-MORNING AND WITH THE INCREASED CAPE WE COULD SEE
SOME LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WITH ANY WELL DEVELOPED CELLS. THE
HEAVIEST RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO REMAIN ALONG AND WEST OF I-24 AND
ARE EXPECTED TO BE LOCALIZED, BUT A QUICK 1" PER HOUR RAIN RATE
WILL BE POSSIBLE UNDER ANY STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS SATURDAY
WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1157 AM CDT FRI JUL 24 2026
NORTHWEST FLOW SETS UP SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND WE WILL SEE
ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE DIG DOWN INTO MIDDLE TN. THIS WILL KEEP
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE MID-MORNING
HOURS. QUIETER WEATHER SETS IN BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR WEST SLOWLY BUILDS EAST SOME. HIGHS
SUNDAY WILL TICK UP WITH MOST AREAS SEEING LOWER 90S. DEW POINTS
WILL REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 70S PUSHING AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX
VALUES ABOVE 100.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR WEST WILL INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER FOR
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK AND WILL BRING A MAJOR WARMING TREND.
WE WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE 90S WITH SOME AREAS GETTING CLOSE TO 100
ON TUESDAY. WE'LL SEE MAJOR HEAT RISK BY TUESDAY AND AFTERNOON
HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL PUSH AS HOT AS 110. A HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH TUESDAY BEING THE HOTTEST DAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO THE NORTHEAST MID-WEEK AND
THAT WILL BRING LOWER HEIGHTS AND COOL OUR TEMPERATURES BACK TO
NEAR SEASONAL NORMS. OVERALL WE WILL SEE DRY WEATHER THROUGHOUT
THE WEEK BUT COULD SEE SOME LOW SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
MID-WEEK AS TROUGHING DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHEAST.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 616 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2026
AN UPPER TROUGH IS APPROACHING MIDDLE TENNESSEE FROM THE NORTHWEST
AS WE HEAD INTO THE EVENING, HENCE ALL THE CLOUDINESS AND
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS WE'RE SEEING. WITH DEW POINT SPREADS SO
LARGE, A LOT OF THE ECHOES WE ARE SEEING ON RADAR LIKELY AREN'T
REACHING THE GROUND, AND EVEN THEN, ANY SHOWERS IN THE NEAR TERM
PROBABLY WON'T RESTRICT VSBY. TOMORROW, WE'VE INCLUDED PROB30
REMARKS TO ACCOUNT FOR POSSIBLE TS/CBS DURING PEAK-HEATING HOURS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 69 87 72 91 / 30 60 40 10
CLARKSVILLE 68 87 72 92 / 40 60 20 10
CROSSVILLE 63 81 66 85 / 10 40 40 20
COLUMBIA 68 86 71 91 / 30 70 60 10
COOKEVILLE 65 82 68 86 / 20 40 30 10
JAMESTOWN 63 81 66 85 / 20 30 30 10
LAWRENCEBURG 68 84 70 89 / 20 60 60 20
MURFREESBORO 68 86 71 91 / 30 60 50 10
WAVERLY 68 86 71 91 / 50 70 40 10
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE.......ROSE
SHORT TERM...MUELLER
LONG TERM....MUELLER
AVIATION.....ROSE
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