089
FXUS64 KOHX 210510
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1210 AM CDT TUE JUL 21 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1210 AM CDT TUE JUL 21 2026
- A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN PLACE TODAY FOR HEAT INDEX TEMPERATURES
REACHING 105+ DEGREES DURING THE AFTERNOON.
- THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. MAIN IMPACTS ARE DAMAGING WINDS AND FLASH
FLOODING.
- COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARRIVE WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 936 PM CDT MON JUL 20 2026
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS DOMINATE TUESDAY, WITH A HEAT ADVISORY
IN EFFECT AS HEAT INDICES REACH 105+ DEGREES IN MANY LOCATIONS
ACROSS MIDDLE TN. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED IN THE MID 90S,
AND INCREASING INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH A MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT INCREASED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. THE GREATEST SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS ANTICIPATED
LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH SPC MAINTAINING A
SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) FOR MOST OF THE NORTHERN HALF OF MIDDLE
TN. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD FROM WHAT COULD
BECOME AN ORGANIZED LINE OF STORMS MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH,
THROUGH HAIL, HEAVY DOWNPOURS, AND A LOW-END TORNADO THREAT CAN'T
BE RULED OUT. LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING REMAINS POSSIBLE AS WELL,
BUT WITH MORE TRANSIENT STORMS ANTICIPATED, THIS WILL BE A LOWER
RISK THAN PREVIOUS DAYS.
THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY,
BRINGING A TRANSITION TO COOLER AND DRIER AIR. RAIN AND STORM
CHANCES WILL LINGER INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY BUT SHOULD DECREASE
THROUGH THE DAY AS THE FRONT CLEARS THE REGION. HIGHS DROP INTO
THE MID 80S, OFFERING NOTICEABLE RELIEF FROM THE HEAT AND
HUMIDITY. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT, DRIER CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL
ACROSS MOST OF MIDDLE TN.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 936 PM CDT MON JUL 20 2026
A QUIETER AND MORE COMFORTABLE PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY UNDER DRIER AIR, WITH ONLY ISOLATED
OR LOW RAIN CHANCES. THIS BREAK PROVIDES RELIEF AFTER THE ACTIVE
AND HOT START TO THE WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOW
90S OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS POTENTIAL
FOR ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE TO BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AROUND FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT, BUT CONFIDENCE IN
COVERAGE AND IMPACTS REMAIN LOW AT THIS TIME. OVERALL, THE PERIOD
THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY SHOULD FEATURE MORE SEASONAL SUMMERTIME
CONDITIONS WITH LOWER RISKS OF WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER OR
FLOODING. DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MAY INCREASE AGAIN BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1210 AM CDT TUE JUL 21 2026
FOR OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING, MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME DAYBREAK FOG AT SRB AND CSV.
MUCH OF DAYTIME TUESDAY WILL BRING VFR CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED
CUMULUS CLOUDS AND SSW WINDS NEAR 10KT. A BAND OF STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH FROM KY AFTER 23Z.
INSTABILITY WILL BE HIGH, SO GUSTY WINDS TO 35KT AND 1SM VSBYS
WERE INDICATED IN TEMPO GROUPS AT ALL TERMINALS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 76 95 73 87 / 0 30 90 10
CLARKSVILLE 76 95 70 86 / 0 60 70 0
CROSSVILLE 70 87 69 83 / 10 20 90 50
COLUMBIA 74 94 73 88 / 10 20 90 10
COOKEVILLE 73 89 70 84 / 0 30 90 30
JAMESTOWN 71 88 69 82 / 10 50 90 30
LAWRENCEBURG 73 92 73 86 / 10 20 80 20
MURFREESBORO 75 95 73 88 / 0 20 90 20
WAVERLY 75 95 71 86 / 0 30 80 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR TNZ005>011-023>034-
056>066-075-077>080-093>095.
SHORT TERM...CRAVENS
LONG TERM....CRAVENS
AVIATION.....13
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