102
FXUS64 KOHX 080516
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1216 AM CDT MON JUN 8 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1208 AM CDT MON JUN 8 2026
- PERIODIC SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEK WITH LOW SEVERE
STORM CHANCES.
- BIGGEST CONCERN THIS WEEK REVOLVES AROUND A MEDIUM FLASH
FLOODING POTENTIAL. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MONDAY
FROM 6 AM TO 8 PM.
- HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS THIS WEEK AS HEAT INDICES REACH THE
90S EARLY WEEK AND EVEN NEAR 100 BY MID WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1118 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2026
SHOWERS ARE PETERING OUT THROUGH THE AREA, BUT WILL ONLY STAY GONE
FOR A BIT BEFORE COMING BACK IN THE MORNING. A TROUGH WILL PASS TO
OUR NW MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT, BRINGING PLENTY OF
PRECIPITATION TO MIDDLE TENNESSEE. AMPLE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
WILL LEAD TO PLENTY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
THE SEVERE THREAT IS LOW, BUT AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM COULD OCCUR.
MAIN CONCERNS WITH MONDAY ARE HEAVY RAINFALL, AND LOCALIZED AREAS OF
FLOODING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS NOT ONLY SHOW HIGH PWAT (ABOVE 2" IN
MANY CAMS), BUT ALSO WEAK WINDS ALOFT. THIS COMBINATION LEADS US TO
BELIEVE THAT STORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVERS AND FULL OF MOISTURE
TOMORROW, WHICH WOULD LEAD TO FLOODING. CURRENT THINKING SHOWS AREAS
NORTH OF I-40 AND WEST OF I-24 WILL BEAR THE BRUNT OF THE RAINFALL,
WITH THIS AREA SEEING PROBABILITIES BETWEEN 25-45% FOR EXCEEDING 4"
OF RAINFALL IN 24 HOURS. WHEN YOU INCREASE TO EXCEEDING 5", YOU GET
AROUND A 20-25% CHANCE, WHICH IS NOTHING TO SHRUG OFF. WE WILL HAVE
TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE AREA GUIDANCE FOCUSES ON, AS CONFIDENCE
IS ON THE LOWER END CURRENTLY. THIS IS WHY OUR FLOOD WATCH IS SO
BIG, BECAUSE WE'RE HIGHLY CONFIDENT IT COULD OCCUR, BUT NOT SO
CONFIDENT ON WHERE TO NARROW IT DOWN IN THE WATCH PHASE.
TUESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER WET DAY, WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE BUT TAPERING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SIMILAR PARAMETERS TO
MONDAY ARE SHOWING UP IN THE CAMS, BUT COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE
LESS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE 80S, AND EVEN WARM TO SOME
AREAS POSSIBLY SEEING 90 ON TUESDAY ALONG THE TN RIVER.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1118 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2026
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE AS SCATTERED/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE HOTTEST PARTS OF THE DAY CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE HIGHER SIDE,
AND THE MOISTURE WILL KEEP ON COMING ALOFT, KEEPING OUR DEWPOINTS
MOIST. AS THE RIDGE DEEPENS ITS GRIP ON OUR AREA, EXPECT SOME 90
DEGREE TEMPERATURES DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK, AND EVEN
HIGHER HEAT INDICES. REMEMBER TO STAY HYDRATED AND TAKE PLENTY OF
BREAKS IN THE AC, SHADE, OR THE POOL IF YOU HAVE SOME OUTDOOR
PLANS!
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1208 AM CDT MON JUN 8 2026
MVFR TO IFR CIGS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS MOST OF MIDDLE TN, AND THESE
LOW CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE MID-MORNING HOURS. CIGS
WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE BACK TO MVFR MID-MORNING, BUT SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, BRINGING LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAIN CAUSING
REDUCED VISIBILITY. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS & STORMS SHOULD LESSEN
AFTER 00Z WITH CIGS RETURNING TO VFR.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 84 71 89 72 / 80 50 50 30
CLARKSVILLE 86 71 88 73 / 90 70 60 30
CROSSVILLE 76 66 80 67 / 90 40 60 30
COLUMBIA 84 70 88 71 / 70 40 40 10
COOKEVILLE 79 68 83 69 / 90 50 60 40
JAMESTOWN 78 66 83 67 / 90 40 70 40
LAWRENCEBURG 82 69 86 70 / 70 30 40 10
MURFREESBORO 84 70 88 71 / 80 40 50 30
WAVERLY 86 72 89 73 / 70 60 50 10
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 AM CDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
TNZ005>011-023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095.
SHORT TERM...HOLLEY
LONG TERM....HOLLEY
AVIATION.....CLEMENTS
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