922
FXUS64 KOHX 221039
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
539 AM CDT TUE SEP 22 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 533 AM CDT TUE SEP 22 2026
- LOW TO MEDIUM RAIN AND STORM CHANCES WILL IMPACT MAINLY THE
CUMBERLAND PLATEAU THROUGH THURSDAY, BUT SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED.
- MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL FINALLY ARRIVE WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1015 PM CDT MON SEP 21 2026
CONVECTION IS ONGOING AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATE EVENING JUST AHEAD
OF A SLOW-MOVING SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT WILL BRING CONSIDERABLY
COOLER AIR TO MIDDLE TENNESSEE BY TOMORROW, THUS BRINGING AN END
TO A WEEKS-LONG HEAT WAVE THAT HAS ALREADY MADE THIS ONE OF THE
WARMEST SEPTEMBERS ON RECORD. RAIN AND STORM CHANCES WILL LINGER
TOMORROW AND WEDNESDAY AND EVEN THURSDAY, MAINLY ALONG THE
CUMBERLAND PLATEAU, AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE BOUNDARY STALLS
OVER THE REGION AND THE UPPER PATTERN FURTHER AMPLIFIES.
OVERNIGHT, WE DO EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP AS RADIATION
COOLING TAKES PLACE, SO WE MAY HAVE LOW VISIBILITIES TO CONTEND
WITH IN THE MORNING IN SOME AREAS. THANKFULLY, TEMPERATURES ACROSS
MIDDLE TENNESSEE WILL FINALLY PLUNGE CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS IN
COMING DAYS, WHICH IS THE REPRIEVE WE'VE ALL BEEN ANTICIPATING.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1015 PM CDT MON SEP 21 2026
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WILL LAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND, ALONG WITH
CONTINUED DRY WEATHER. ALTHOUGH A FEW SPOTS WILL ENJOY SOME
TEMPORARY RELIEF FROM THE WORSENING DROUGHT CONDITIONS IN THE
NEAR-TERM, 7-DAY QPF VALUES DON'T PROVIDE MUCH HOPE THAT WE WILL
ENJOY MEANINGFUL RAINFALL ANYTIME SOON ACROSS THE MID STATE.
FORTUNATELY, THE RISK OF ANY HAZARDOUS WEATHER GOING FORWARD LOOKS
TO BE MINIMAL. THUS, ATTENTION IN COMING DAYS WILL LIKELY SHIFT
TO THE LENGTHENING DRYNESS THAT HAS ENVELOPED MOST OF THE MID
STATE FOR THE LAST MONTH-PLUS.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 533 AM CDT TUE SEP 22 2026
LOW STRATUS IS DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA, RESULTING
IN A MIX OF MVFR TO VFR CIGS ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG IMPACTING SRB
AND CSV. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BACK TO VFR BETWEEN 14Z AND 16Z.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
PLATEAU AND PROB30 GROUPS REMAIN FOR SRB AND CSV. LOW STRATUS AND
PATCHY FOG THEN REDEVELOP TONIGHT FOR SRB AND CSV. OTHERWISE,
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY AT 5 TO 10
KNOTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 87 66 84 62 / 10 0 0 0
CLARKSVILLE 86 62 82 59 / 10 0 0 0
CROSSVILLE 82 61 77 59 / 60 20 50 20
COLUMBIA 91 64 87 61 / 10 0 10 0
COOKEVILLE 82 63 79 61 / 20 10 30 10
JAMESTOWN 80 61 76 60 / 20 10 40 10
LAWRENCEBURG 88 64 84 61 / 10 0 20 0
MURFREESBORO 90 65 86 62 / 10 10 10 0
WAVERLY 85 63 81 60 / 10 0 0 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM....ROSE
AVIATION.....CLEMENTS
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