088
FXUS64 KOHX 180019
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
719 PM CDT FRI JUL 17 2026
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 708 PM CDT FRI JUL 17 2026
- DAILY ROUNDS OF SCATTERED STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. STRONG WINDS GUSTS AND HEAVY RAIN CAUSING LOCALIZED
FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE.
- HEAT INDICES WILL REACH THE LOW 100S WEST OF THE CUMBERLAND
PLATEAU INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TUESDAY WILL BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF
THE PERIOD WITH HEAT INDICES NEARING OR EXCEEDING 105 DEGREES.
- SLIGHTLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR IS EXPECTED LATE NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 708 PM CDT FRI JUL 17 2026
SLOW-MOVING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THIS EVENING WITH
THE MOST WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY ALONG THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU. AS WE
CONTINUE TO LOSE DAYTIME HEATING, INSTABILITY IS DROPPING OFF, BUT
THERE IS STILL ENOUGH AROUND TO KEEP THUNDERSTORMS FUELED UP TO
PRODUCE FREQUENT CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND VERY HEAVY RAIN.
PWATS ARE NEAR 2.20", RESULTING IN EFFICIENT RAINFALL RATES.
RAINFALL INTENSITY WILL START TO DECREASE AS INSTABILITY WANES,
BUT PLEASE REMAIN CAUTIOUS OF FLOODED ROADWAYS OR QUICK FLASH
FLOODING TO DEVELOP. REMEMBER: TURN AROUND, DON'T DROWN! FLOODING
IS EVEN MORE DIFFICULT TO SPOT AT NIGHT, SO PLEASE USE CAUTION IF
TRAVELING IN AN AREA THAT RECEIVED RAINFALL TODAY.
ACTIVITY WILL FULLY WIND DOWN LATER TONIGHT WITH CALM CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT. TOMORROW LOOKS LIKE MORE OF THE SAME WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MAINLY FOCUSED DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH A
LOW SEVERE THREAT.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1144 AM CDT FRI JUL 17 2026
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CUMULUS ARE ALREADY POPPING UP ACROSS MIDDLE
TENNESSEE ON SATELLITE THIS MORNING, WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FORECASTED FOR TODAY, YET AGAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL BARELY GET INTO
THE 90S FOR HIGHS TODAY, WITH SOME AREAS ON THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU
STICKING IN THE MID 80S. TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT INDICES ARE THE NAME OF
THE GAME THE NEXT FEW DAYS, SO MAKE SURE YOU ARE STAYING HYDRATED IF
YOU HAVE ANY OUTDOOR PLANS FOR THE WEEKEND.
OVERNIGHT WE CAN EXPECT SOME PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP IN MIDDLE
TENNESSEE. NOTHING TOO DENSE, BUT ENOUGH TO DROP VISIBILITY A BIT.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S, AND REBOUND
BACK INTO THE LOW 90S WITH HEAT INDICES IN THE TRIPLE DIGITS ONCE
AGAIN.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH
SPC HIGHLIGHTING PORTIONS OF OUR AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1
OUT OF 5). PRIMARY HAZARD WITH ANY STRONGER STORMS WOULD BE GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL LEADING TO LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING, GIVEN
THE SHEER AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE (WITH PWATS IN
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ABOVE 2"). THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW
HOWEVER, AS WE LACK MEANINGFUL SHEAR TO SUSTAIN DECENT UPDRAFTS AND
STRONGER STORMS, BUT AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1144 AM CDT FRI JUL 17 2026
INTO THE WORK WEEK, TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS
WAA INCREASES AT 850MB. THIS WILL LEAD TO TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT INDICES
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, SOME GETTING INTO HEAT ADVISORY TERRITORY. WE
WILL HAVE TO EVALUATE THE NEED FOR A HEAT PRODUCT AS WE CONTINUE TO
APPROACH THAT POINT IN TIME. REMEMBER TO STAY HYDRATED AND TAKE
FREQUENT BREAKS IN THE AC OR SHADE IF YOU WORK OUTSIDE OR HAVE ANY
ACTIVITIES PLANNED. UNTIL THE COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY
BRINGING COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE, DIURNAL
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A DAILY THREAT. MOST OF THESE WILL
NOT BE STRONG, BUT WE COULD SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING FROM STRONGER OR TRAINING STORMS.
AFTER THE COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY MORNING, WE WILL ENTER A QUIETER
PERIOD FOR THE MID-WEEK. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 80S FOR THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY, SLOWLY WARMING BACK INTO THE 90S INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 624 PM CDT FRI JUL 17 2026
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY PERSISTS THIS EVENING, THOUGH IT IS
DIMINISHING AS WE LOSE SUNSHINE. A PROB30 HAS BEEN INCLUDED AT BNA
AND MQY FOR A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAS DEVELOPED NORTHWEST
NEAR CKV. RADAR TRENDS SHOW THIS LINE WEAKENING, BUT JUST IN CASE
IT STAYS TOGETHER, HAVE MENTIONED THIS IN THE TAF. CALM CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS, SHIFTING NORTHWESTERLY
AFTER 15Z. IFR FOG APPEARS LIKELY OVERNIGHT AT CSV AND SRB WITH
VISIBILITIES IMPROVING AFTER 13Z.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 73 92 75 91 / 30 30 30 70
CLARKSVILLE 74 92 74 91 / 20 20 30 60
CROSSVILLE 69 84 69 85 / 20 40 40 70
COLUMBIA 72 92 73 91 / 20 20 30 70
COOKEVILLE 71 87 71 86 / 30 50 50 70
JAMESTOWN 69 86 69 85 / 20 50 70 70
LAWRENCEBURG 71 90 72 89 / 20 30 30 70
MURFREESBORO 72 92 73 91 / 30 30 50 70
WAVERLY 72 91 73 91 / 20 10 40 60
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE.......BAGGETT
SHORT TERM...HOLLEY
LONG TERM....HOLLEY
AVIATION.....BAGGETT
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