996
FXUS64 KOHX 280349
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
949 PM CST SAT DEC 27 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 942 PM CST SAT DEC 27 2025
- GUSTY WINDS STARTING AROUND NOON SUNDAY. NON-THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 MPH ARE LIKELY.
- THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AS A COLD
FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH MIDDLE TN SUNDAY NIGHT.
- VERY COLD TEMPERATURES RETURN MONDAY, STICKING AROUND THROUGH
THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 942 PM CST SAT DEC 27 2025
IT'S A WARM, MUGGY EVENING ACROSS MIDDLE TN WITH TEMPERATURES STILL
HOLDING PRETTY FIRM IN THE 60S ACROSS THE WHOLE AREA. I DON'T EXPECT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF TEMPERATURE DROPS OVERNIGHT AS CLOUDS SHOULD
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS WE GET INTO TOMORROW
MORNING, AN INTENSE UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL DIVE OUT OF CANADA INTO THE
CENTER OF THE COUNTRY AND AS IT DOES, A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP
WITH A STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR VERY
BREEZY CONDITION THROUGHOUT THE DAY. BY NOON, SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL PICK UP AND I THINK WE CAN EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 20
MPH WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 35 MPH. WHILE THE STRONGER NON-
THUNDERSTORM WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE TO OUR NORTH, THERE'S A LOW
TO MEDIUM CHANCE OF GUSTS TO 40 MPH ALONG THE KY-TN STATE LINE,
ESPECIALLY IN THE EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
YES, AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. IN DECEMBER. AND NO, THIS ONE WON'T
BE MUCH DIFFERENT THAN THE REST -- LOW CAPE VALUES AND SHEAR OFF THE
CHART. PROBS FOR CAPE ABOVE 100 J/KG ARE NEGLIGIBLE, BUT AREN'T
ZERO. IN FACT, THE LATEST HRRR CAME IN WITH ABOUT 150 J/KG WEST OF
I-65 JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. IT'S NOT MUCH, BUT COUPLED WITH
SOME FAIRLY INTENSE FRONTOGENESIS ALONG A VERY SHARP COLD FRONT,
WE COULD SEE ENOUGH FORCING TO PUSH AT LEAST A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE WIND GUSTS TO THE SURFACE. A LLJ OF 50-60 KTS IS EXPECTED
TO TRAVERSE THE MID-STATE AFTER SUNSET AND EVEN THOUGH LAPSE RATES
AREN'T ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE (~6.0 C/KM), I CAN'T RULE OUT THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW TREES TO FALL TOMORROW EVENING. TIMING ON THIS
FRONTAL PASSAGE HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT THE LAST COUPLE OF
DAYS, WITH THE BULK OF ANY ACTIVITY COMING BETWEEN 7 PM AND 1 AM
AND THE FOCUS SHOULD BE WEST OF I-65 AS SURFACE CAPE DOES FALL OFF
QUICKLY ONCE THE LINE GETS INTO THE EAST HALF OF THE AREA. BOTTOM
LINE, IF YOU HAVE CHRISTMAS DECORATIONS YOU'VE BEEN MEANING TO
PUT UP AND HAVEN'T GOTTEN AROUND TO IT, TOMORROW MORNING IS YOUR
WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY. AS THE EVENING APPROACHES, PLEASE KEEP AN
EYE ON THESE STORMS. I DON'T EXPECT ANYTHING WIDESPREAD, BUT
THERE'S AT LEAST A LOW-END THREAT OF SEVERE WINDS.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 942 PM CST SAT DEC 27 2025
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT, A CP AIRMASS WILL DRIVE VERY COLD AND
DRY AIR INTO THE REGION. AS PRECIPITATION ESCAPES MIDDLE TN TO THE
EAST, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A BIT OF A WINTRY MIX MONDAY
MORNING, ESPECIALLY ON THE PLATEAU, BUT IMPACTS SHOULD BE VERY
LIMITED AS THE PRECIP SHOULD BE QUICK TO GET OUT OF HERE.
TEMPERATURES MONDAY MORNING SHOULD BE ABOUT 30 DEGREES COLDER THAN
WHAT WE EXPERIENCE TOMORROW MORNING AND AFTER THAT INITIAL HIT OF
COLD AIR, WE SHOULD VERY SLOWLY REGULATE BUT REMAIN AT LEAST A
FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL UNTIL NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 516 PM CST SAT DEC 27 2025
A WARM FRONT IS IN THE PROCESS OF DEVELOPING TO THE IMMEDIATE
NORTH OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE THIS EVENING, WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE IS
SITUATED ON TOP OF US. CURRENTLY, CEILINGS ARE MVFR WEST OF THE
CUMBERLAND PLATEAU, AND LOWER CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE SPREADING
EASTWARD AS WE HEAD INTO THE EVENING. MVFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST
FOR MOST OF THE NEXT 24 HRS. LOOK FOR SURFACE WINDS TO INCREASE
FROM THE SSW DURING THE DAY TOMORROW AS A STRONG COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE MID STATE. HOWEVER, IT APPEARS THAT RAIN CHANCES
WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL SOMETIME AFTER 00Z; WE WILL LIKELY HAVE TO
INTRODUCE ACTIVE WEATHER IN THE NEXT SET OF TAFS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 63 75 32 38 / 0 10 90 0
CLARKSVILLE 64 74 29 34 / 0 20 90 0
CROSSVILLE 57 69 27 37 / 0 10 90 0
COLUMBIA 62 73 30 38 / 0 0 100 0
COOKEVILLE 60 71 29 37 / 0 10 100 0
JAMESTOWN 57 70 26 35 / 0 10 90 0
LAWRENCEBURG 62 72 31 40 / 0 0 90 0
MURFREESBORO 62 73 31 40 / 0 0 90 0
WAVERLY 62 72 26 35 / 0 10 100 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...UNGER
LONG TERM....UNGER
AVIATION.....ROSE
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