661
FXUS64 KOHX 260109
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
809 PM CDT SUN OCT 25 2026
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 805 PM CDT SUN OCT 25 2026
- WARM, SUNNY DAYS AND COOL, CLEAR NIGHTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEK.
- NO RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY NIGHT, BUT THE
WEATHER PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT NEXT WEEKEND.
- DROUGHT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO WORSEN IN THE NEAR-TERM.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 805 PM CDT SUN OCT 25 2026
A SURFACE RIDGE BISECTS MIDDLE TENNESSEE THIS EVENING, WITH WINDS
HAVING GONE LIGHT OR CALM ACROSS THE REGION. THIS MEANS OUR
EVENING TEMPERATURES ARE DROPPING QUICKLY GIVEN THE PERFECT
RADIATION COOLING CONDITIONS. ONCE AGAIN, WIDESPREAD FOG IS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS DEW POINT SPREADS SHRINK TO NEAR ZERO. AND
TOMORROW LOOKS TO BE A CARBON COPY OF TODAY.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1132 AM CDT SUN OCT 25 2026
THIS MORNING'S UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS DEPICTED THE SURFACE RIDGE
FINALLY SHIFTING OVER TO THE CAROLINAS. AS A RESULT, SOUTHERLY
FLOW HAS SETTLED BACK IN AND RESULTANT DEWPOINTS ARE UP A FEW
DEGREES FROM YESTERDAY. THIS WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON THE
AFTERNOON FORECAST (STILL WARM WITH MILD HUMIDITY), BUT THE
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OVERNIGHT WILL MOST LIKELY PROMOTE SOME MORE
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT DUE TO MORE MOISTURE PRESENT AND NO WIND.
ANOTHER FEATURE OF THIS RIDGE'S NEW POSITION IS SLIGHTLY LOWER
FIRE DANGER. FUELS ARE STILL PLENTY DRY AND WILL CONTINUE TO DRY
OUT IN THE ABSENCE OF RAIN, BUT LIGHT WINDS AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER
HUMIDITY SHOULD PRECLUDE SIGNIFICANT FIRE DANGER. EXPECT A
PERSISTENCE FORECAST ON MONDAY AS THIS SAME PATTERN WILL SET UP
AGAIN TOMORROW.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1132 AM CDT SUN OCT 25 2026
THE MAJORITY OF THE WEEK IS EXPECTED TO FEATURE BROAD MIDLEVEL
RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS, WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES 5-10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR MIDDLE TN. HOWEVER, "NORMAL"
TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE AROUND 70 DEGREES IN THE
AFTERNOON, SO TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S IS ANOMALOUS
BUT NOT UNCOMFORTABLY WARM. HUMIDITY REMAINS LOW THROUGH THE WEEK
AS WELL. WITH NO RAIN IN SIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK,
AREAWIDE DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO WORSEN.
THINGS ARE FINALLY STARTING TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON A
PATTERN SHIFT NEXT WEEKEND. LONG RANGE ENSEMBLES FINALLY HINT AT
SOME LONG-AWAITED RAIN AS EARLY AS SATURDAY NIGHT AS A BROAD
LONGWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE PLAINS. LREF PROBABILITIES OF
MEASURABLE RAINFALL (0.01") ARE STILL AT AROUND 30-40% SATURDAY
NIGHT VIA THE GRAND ENSEMBLE, INCREASING SIGNIFICANTLY ON SUNDAY.
ITS INDIVIDUAL MEMBERS HAVE STARKLY DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS WITH THE
ENS SHOWING A MUCH FASTER ONSET AND THE GEFS PUSHING PRECIP ONSET
SEVERAL HOURS BACK INTO SUNDAY. EITHER WAY, THIS IS NOT A STRONG
COLD FRONT NEXT WEEKEND BY ANY MEANS, JUST SOME LIGHT RAIN
ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 545 PM CDT SUN OCT 25 2026
VFR WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE ONLY
POTENTIAL IMPACTS WILL BE PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG AT CSV AND SRB,
BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 48 76 48 77 / 0 0 0 0
CLARKSVILLE 48 77 48 77 / 0 0 0 0
CROSSVILLE 42 71 44 72 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBIA 46 77 46 79 / 0 0 0 0
COOKEVILLE 45 72 46 74 / 0 0 0 0
JAMESTOWN 44 71 45 74 / 0 0 0 0
LAWRENCEBURG 45 75 45 77 / 0 0 0 0
MURFREESBORO 46 76 46 78 / 0 0 0 0
WAVERLY 48 75 48 76 / 0 0 0 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE.......ROSE
SHORT TERM...DIRKES
LONG TERM....DIRKES
AVIATION.....13
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