643
FXUS64 KOHX 051120
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
520 AM CST THU MAR 5 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 515 AM CST THU MAR 5 2026
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE FOR A LEAST THE NEXT
WEEK.
- HIGHEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS IS
SATURDAY (90-100%). NO SEVERE IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME, BUT
CAN'T RULE OUT A STRONG STORM OR TWO.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1012 PM CST WED MAR 4 2026
ANOTHER FANTASTIC DAY IN MIDDLE TN IS ALMOST IN THE BOOKS. UPPER
RIDGING KEPT US COMPLETELY QUIET, BUT ALSO MADE US VERY WARM.
YES, WE PULLED UP 5 DEGREES SHORT OF THE RECORD FOR MARCH 4TH, BUT
AFTERNOON HIGHS WERE 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR. OUR AVERAGE FIRST DATE FOR REACHING 80 DEGREES AT NASHVILLE
AIRPORT IS MARCH 29TH AND THAT VERY WELL MIGHT HAPPEN TOMORROW --
24 DAYS EARLY. NBM PROBS PUT NASHVILLE AT A 75% CHANCE OF 80 OR
WARMER TOMORROW AND FOR OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES, THERE ARE SEVERAL
SPOTS OF A 90% CHANCE OF THAT HAPPENING. WHY THE BETTER CHANCE IN
THE SOUTH? WELL, AS I TYPE THIS, THERE IS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
OVER THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY THAT IS BRINGING ACTIVE WEATHER TO
AREAS JUST TO OUR WEST. AS THIS UPPER TROUGH PUSHES EAST TONIGHT
AND TOMORROW MORNING, MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT DEPICTING IT
IMPEDING ON THE RIDGE THAT KEPT US QUIET TODAY. NOW, I THINK ON
THE WHOLE THE RIDGE WINS OUT. THE BULK OF EVERYONE IN THE MID-
STATE WILL REMAIN DRY TOMORROW (I.E. OUR SOUTHERN, WARMER
COUNTIES). HOWEVER, BY MID MORNING TOMORROW, A FEW SHOWERS AND
MAYBE EVEN A RUMBLE OF THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE IN OUR NORTHWEST
QUADRANT. I DON'T EXPECT ANY SEVERE, OR EVEN ANYTHING STRONG, BUT
KNOW THAT RAIN IS POSSIBLE TOMORROW MORNING IN OUR NORTHWEST. THE
RIDGE TAKES BACK OVER PRETTY QUICKLY AND BY THE AFTERNOON,
EVERYONE SHOULD BE RAIN-FREE.
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL LIKELY HOLD ON FOR ONE MORE DAY AFTER TOMORROW.
A SIMILAR SCENARIO COULD TAKE SHAPE ON FRIDAY: VERY WARM AND A
SHOT OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM, BUT WITH THE SUBSIDENCE OF
THE RIDGE, NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1012 PM CST WED MAR 4 2026
STARTING FRIDAY NIGHT, THE RIDGE STARTS TO LOOSEN ITS GRIP ON MIDDLE
TN AND BY SATURDAY MORNING A LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL FINALLY
BRING WIDESPREAD RAINS TO THE AREA. AS OF RIGHT NOW, IT DOES NOT
LOOK SEVERE. THE PARENT LOW AND ASSOCIATED DYNAMICS ARE UP OVER THE
GREAT LAKES. THAT MEANS WAY LESS SHEAR THAN WE OTHERWISE WOULD HAVE
AND THE FORCING WON'T BE A STRONG, EITHER. THAT SAID, PWS SPIKE
AHEAD OF THE RAIN AND WE COULD BE LOOKING AT MODERATE RAINFALL
TOTALS AS TWO WAVES OF RAIN AFFECT THE AREA. FIRST ONE IN THE
MORNING AND THEN A SECONDARY WAVE SATURDAY EVENING. WE SHOULD
AVERAGE AN INCH THROUGH THAT 24 HOUR PERIOD. MOST OF THE RAIN SHOULD
BE EAST OF US ON SUNDAY, BUT SOME LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST. IT WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER ON SUNDAY
AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, AS WELL. IN THE END, I THINK WE'RE
LOOKING AT A VERY, VERY LOW CHANCE FOR A STRONG WIND GUST ON
SATURDAY WITH SOME DECENT RAIN. IF YOU HAVE OUTDOOR PLANS, I'D BE
KEEPING AN EYE ON THINGS FOR LIGHTNING AND SOGGY CONDITIONS.
AFTER SUNDAY, MODELS KEEP US IN A FAIRLY ACTIVE PATTERN. EACH DAY TO
START NEXT WEEK, WE WILL CARRY POPS (MOST OF WHICH WILL LIKELY BE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN) AND WE'LL MAINTAIN THESE WELL-ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH AT LEAST THIS TIME NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 515 AM CST THU MAR 5 2026
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OFF TO OUR NORTHWEST WILL APPROACH KCKV
BUT WILL WEAKEN AS THEY DO AND WILL ONLY BRING A LOW CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS BETWEEN 15 AND 19Z. SHOWER CHANCES WILL LINGER THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON FOR KCKV. RAIN CHANCES FOR THE NASHVILLE TERMINALS IS
BELOW 20%. SCT TO BKN CLOUDS 100-150 LOWER TO 040-060 BETWEEN 15
AND 23Z. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP THIS MORNING AND WILL BECOME
BREEZY AFTER 15Z WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS. WINDS START TO
DIMINISH AFTER 23Z.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 80 60 82 66 / 40 10 10 20
CLARKSVILLE 77 59 82 64 / 60 20 0 30
CROSSVILLE 74 56 78 62 / 20 10 20 20
COLUMBIA 79 59 82 64 / 20 10 10 20
COOKEVILLE 75 59 79 63 / 30 10 40 20
JAMESTOWN 74 57 79 62 / 30 10 0 20
LAWRENCEBURG 78 59 82 63 / 10 0 20 20
MURFREESBORO 79 60 82 65 / 20 10 20 20
WAVERLY 77 60 81 62 / 50 20 0 20
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...UNGER
LONG TERM....UNGER
AVIATION.....MUELLER
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