642
FXUS64 KOHX 170507
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1107 PM CST MON FEB 16 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1103 PM CST MON FEB 16 2026
- EXPECT WARM, SPRING-LIKE TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK WITH NEAR-
RECORD VALUES POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY.
- RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
AND ARE LIKELY TO EXTEND INTO THE WEEKEND.
- STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THURSDAY AND INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY
WINDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 707 PM CST MON FEB 16 2026
A SURFACE RIDGE HAS SLIPPED TO THE EAST OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE, SO WE
ARE ENJOYING SOME NICE RETURN FLOW, WHICH WILL HELP DELIVER
INCREASINGLY WARM TEMPERATURES TO THE MID STATE THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK, OR AT LEAST THROUGH THURSDAY, AFTER WHICH THE NEXT COLD
FRONT LOOKS TO SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION. IN THE NEAR-TERM, WE CAN
EXPECT ONLY A FEW PATCHES OF OVERNIGHT RADIATION FOG, FOLLOWED BY
EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES TOMORROW DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF
ADDITIONAL CLOUDINESS. OUR NEXT RAIN CHANCES WON'T ARRIVE UNTIL
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 927 PM CST MON FEB 16 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HAS ALREADY SHIFTED TO THE EAST OF MIDDLE
TENNESSEE, AND THE UPPER RIDGE WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE MID STATE
TOMORROW AS AN UNSEASONABLY WARM AIR MASS CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER
THE REGION. LOOK FOR SOME ADDITIONAL CLOUDINESS ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SURFACE TROUGH, BUT THIS WILL DO
LITTLE TO THWART THIS WEEK'S EXPECTED WARMING TREND. RAIN CHANCES
WILL RETURN TO MIDDLE TENNESSEE WEDNESDAY NIGHT, ALONG WITH SOME
STORM CHANCES AS A DEVELOPING COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 927 PM CST MON FEB 16 2026
STORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS SOME
INSTABILITY LOOKS TO DEVELOP IN WHAT PROMISES TO BE AN UNUSUALLY
WARM AIR MASS. IN FACT, THURSDAY'S FORECAST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
ARE CLOSE TO DAILY RECORD VALUES. AT THIS TIME, IT APPEARS THAT WE
CAN EXPECT A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THURSDAY EVENING AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD, BUT A SECOND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS PROJECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER THE GULF COAST STATES AND PUSH THROUGH THE REGION ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, WITH RAIN CHANCES TAPERING OFF BY SUNDAY.
WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL TREND COOLER BEGINNING ON FRIDAY, THIS
SECOND FROPA WILL USHER IN MORE WINTER-LIKE TEMPERATURES BY THE
START OF NEXT WEEK. INDEED, WE CAN LOOK FORWARD TO WIDESPREAD
FREEZING TEMPERATURES (MAINLY IN THE 20S) MONDAY MORNING AND AGAIN
TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE WE START TO WARM BACK UP. DESPITE
PERSISTENT RAIN CHANCES FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY,
MULTI-DAY QPF VALUES LOOK TO STAY BETWEEN 0.75" AND 1.5" ACROSS
MIDDLE TENNESSEE, WHICH SHOULDN'T POSE MUCH OF A PROBLEM. OTHER
THAN THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG STORMS MAINLY ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, THERE DOESN'T APPEAR TO BE ANY HAZARDOUS WEATHER IN
STORE FOR THE MID STATE DURING THE UPCOMING 7-DAY FORECAST PERIOD.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1103 PM CST MON FEB 16 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL, BUT THE EXCEPTION FOR TONIGHT CONTINUES TO
BE NORTHWEST MIDDLE TN, INCLUDING CKV. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW
LOW STRATUS DEVELOPING OVER THIS REGION, AND PROBABILITIES FOR IFR
CIGS HAVE INCREASED TO 60% FOR THE 11Z TO 17Z TIME FRAME SO HAVE
INCLUDED THIS IN THE CKV TAF. BECAUSE OF THESE CLOUDS, THE
PROBABILITY FOR FOG HAS DECREASED. OTHERWISE, SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT OVERNIGHT BUT STRENGTHEN LATE TUESDAY MORNING WITH GUSTS
OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER
WILL INCREASE TUESDAY WITH CIGS DROPPING TO MVFR AFTER 06Z
TOMORROW AND HAVE INCLUDED THIS IN BNA'S 30-HOUR TAF.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 46 69 57 70 / 0 0 0 10
CLARKSVILLE 43 68 57 71 / 0 0 10 10
CROSSVILLE 43 63 52 62 / 0 0 0 20
COLUMBIA 44 68 57 69 / 0 0 0 10
COOKEVILLE 45 65 54 64 / 0 0 0 10
JAMESTOWN 43 63 53 62 / 0 0 0 10
LAWRENCEBURG 47 67 56 68 / 0 0 0 10
MURFREESBORO 45 68 57 69 / 0 0 0 10
WAVERLY 45 66 56 69 / 0 0 10 20
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE.......ROSE
SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM....ROSE
AVIATION.....CLEMENTS
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