271
FXUS64 KOHX 161732
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1232 PM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1229 PM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
- A BREEZY COLD FRONT IS PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA, BRINGING MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.
- THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU AND LOW LYING AREAS WEST OF THE PLATEAU WILL
SEE THE FIRST LIGHT FROST OF THE SEASON EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
- THERE ARE ONLY LOW, LIGHT RAIN CHANCES WITH TODAY'S FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND NONE HEREAFTER, SO DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO WORSEN.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1053 AM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
THE COLD FRONT IS MARCHING THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING BRINGING
OVERCAST SKIES, GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS, AND DROPPING TEMPERATURES. IT
IS QUITE THE CHANGE FROM THE RECORD-BREAKING HEAT WE SAW MONDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. RADAR SHOWS SOME LIGHT RETURNS WEST OF I-65, SO
SOME SPRINKLES AND LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. ANY RAIN AMOUNTS WILL BE A TRACE TO A COUPLE
HUNDREDTHS. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH
CLOUD COVER LINGERING. WITH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION, TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ABLE TO FALL TO THE LOWER TO MID 40S. SATURDAY WILL BE THE
COOLEST DAY OF THE SEASON SO FAR WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY MAKING IT
TO THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S! BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
AND RH VALUES OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA WILL DROP TO
AROUND 30%. I WOULD ADVISE TO NOT BURN ANYTHING GIVEN THE ONGOING
DROUGHT CONDITIONS. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL SEE WINDS DECREASE AND
TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE 30S. LIGHT FROST IS LIKELY IN THE LOW-
LYING AREAS ALONG THE PLATEAU.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1053 AM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
THE STORY OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE THE CONTINUING DRY
CONDITIONS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ESTABLISHED ON SUNDAY WITH
INFLUENCES CONTINUING THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. THE UPPER LOW OVER THE
CAROLINA COAST MAY RETROGRADE WEST ONSHORE MID TO LATE WEEK BUT
THOSE INFLUENCES WILL STAY EAST OF OUR AREA. LOCALLY, WE'LL SEE HIGH
TEMPERATURES SLOWLY CLIMB THROUGH THE 70S THROUGH THE WEEK WITH
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
A STRONG COLD FRONT HAS AT LONG LAST SPRINTED ACROSS MIDDLE
TENNESSEE, LEAVING THE MID STATE WITH A MUCH COOLER AIR MASS.
THERE IS VIRTUALLY NO PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FROPA, BUT
WE ARE ENJOYING A GUSTY NW BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON, ALONG WITH A
BAND OF MVFR CEILINGS. CEILINGS ARE LIKELY TO IMPROVE TO VFR
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON, BUT THEN WE'LL REVERT BACK TO MVFR DURING
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS ANOTHER BAND OF OCCLUDED-FRONT
MOISTURE SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION. TOMORROW SHOULD REMAIN VFR AS
WINDS REMAIN GUSTY OUT OF THE NORTH.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 46 61 40 68 / 0 0 0 0
CLARKSVILLE 44 61 36 68 / 0 0 0 0
CROSSVILLE 41 54 33 63 / 40 0 0 0
COLUMBIA 45 63 38 69 / 0 0 0 0
COOKEVILLE 43 56 36 65 / 30 0 0 0
JAMESTOWN 42 54 34 63 / 50 0 0 0
LAWRENCEBURG 44 61 36 68 / 10 0 0 0
MURFREESBORO 45 62 38 70 / 10 0 0 0
WAVERLY 45 60 39 67 / 0 0 0 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...REAGAN
LONG TERM....REAGAN
AVIATION.....ROSE
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