059
FXUS64 KOHX 261110
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
610 AM CDT FRI JUN 26 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 606 AM CDT FRI JUN 26 2026
- RAIN AND STORM CHANCES WILL RETURN TO MIDDLE TENNESSEE STARTING
TODAY, WITH MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT
BEFORE TAPERING OFF. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS
BOTH DAYS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AS THE PRIMARY THREAT.
- OPPRESSIVE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BRING TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT
INDICES FROM SUNDAY ONWARD.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1008 PM CDT THU JUN 25 2026
ALTHOUGH MIDDLE TENNESSEE REMAINS ECHO-FREE SO FAR THIS EVENING,
CONVECTION HAS BEEN ONGOING CLOSE BY TO OUR NORTH. A WARM FRONT IS
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY, AND RAIN AND STORM CHANCES WILL
START BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION TOMORROW AS WARM, MOIST ADVECTION
CONTRIBUTES TO INCREASING ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY. IN FACT, THE
00Z SOUNDING FROM OHX THIS EVENING SHOWS THAT INSTABILITY IS
ALREADY IN PLACE, WITH AN SBCAPE VALUE IN EXCESS OF 1,600 J/KG AND
A LIFTED INDEX OF -5. SO WE'RE JUST WAITING ON SOME SORT OF
CATALYST TO FOCUS THAT ENERGY INTO ACTIVE WEATHER. THAT WILL START
TO HAPPEN BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS MAINLY LOW STORM CHANCES
EMERGE. OUR CONVECTIVE CHANCES WILL INCREASE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE BOUNDARY DIPS A LITTLE
FARTHER SOUTHWARD, AND WE ALSO FALL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A WEAK
SHORTWAVE OR TWO IN WHAT WOULD OTHERWISE BE CLASSIFIED AS A QUASI-
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. FORTUNATELY, THE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS IS VERY
LOW. INDEED, THE MOST IMPACTFUL WEATHER THIS FORECAST MAY
ACTUALLY BE THE EXCESSIVE HEAT AND HUMIDITY THAT WILL SETTLE IN
FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1008 PM CDT THU JUN 25 2026
LOOK FOR OUR RAIN CHANCES TO ABATE FROM SUNDAY ONWARD, JUST AS
THE FIRST BONAFIDE HEAT WAVE OF THE SEASON SETTLES IN FOR THE LONG
HAUL. WHILE RAIN CHANCES NEXT WEEK WILL BE NEARLY NON-EXISTENT,
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE BULK OF THE MID STATE WEST OF THE
CUMBERLAND PLATEAU WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S EVERY DAY
AT LEAST THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO HEAT INDICES IN
THE 100S MOST AREAS, AND IT IS LIKELY THAT WE'LL REACH HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA ON MULTIPLE DAYS.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 606 AM CDT FRI JUN 26 2026
SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE CROSSED OVER THE TN RIVER DURING THE LAST
HOUR AND WILL AFFECT CKV/BNA/MQY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. CKV WILL
CATCH THE BRUNT OF IT WITH MVFR CIGS AND GUSTY WINDS, BUT BNA/MQY
SHOULD REMAIN VFR WITH A -TS. ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND HAVE COVERED THESE WITH PROB30S. OUTSIDE OF STORMS,
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND MAINLY SOUTHERLY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 90 76 89 74 / 40 40 70 50
CLARKSVILLE 89 74 88 74 / 80 60 80 50
CROSSVILLE 84 70 82 69 / 30 40 80 70
COLUMBIA 91 75 90 73 / 40 20 60 30
COOKEVILLE 86 72 84 70 / 30 50 90 70
JAMESTOWN 85 69 83 68 / 40 50 80 70
LAWRENCEBURG 88 74 88 72 / 20 20 60 30
MURFREESBORO 90 75 90 73 / 20 40 70 50
WAVERLY 89 74 88 73 / 80 30 70 30
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM....ROSE
AVIATION.....UNGER
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