551
FXUS64 KOHX 112348
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
648 PM CDT SUN OCT 11 2026
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 645 PM CDT SUN OCT 11 2026
- PATCHY DENSE FOG TONIGHT, MAINLY EAST OF I-65.
- WARM, DRY WEATHER THIS WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE-
NORMAL, RECORD HIGHS POSSIBLE TUESDAY-THURSDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 645 PM CDT SUN OCT 11 2026
THE CLEARING LINE CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST THIS EVENING WITH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE STILL LINGERING. AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP WHERE SKIES ARE CLEAR. WE'LL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON OBS
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF DENSE FOG, BUT PROBABILITIES ARE HIGHEST
EAST OF I-65. ONCE FOG MIXES OUT MONDAY MORNING, TEMPERATURES WILL
REBOUND INTO THE 80S.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT SUN OCT 11 2026
WHAT WAS AT ONE POINT HURRICANE ISAIAS HAS NOW BECOME AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER TN/KY. THIS WILL BRING A LOW CHANCE FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE PLATEAU THIS AFTERNOON. THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL LIFT OUT OF TN LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. THIS
WILL START TO PUSH DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION AND WE WILL SEE A
DRAMATIC DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER FROM WEST TO EAST. THE WESTERN
PART OF THE AREA SHOULD CLEAR OUT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND THE
CLEAR SKIES WILL KEEP WORKING EAST INTO THE EVENING. HIGHS TODAY
MAKE IT INTO THE MID 60S WHERE CLOUD COVER LINGERS AND TO MID 70S
FOR AREAS THAT CLEAR OUT THIS AFTERNOON. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS ALONG WITH RECENT MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO A GOOD SET UP FOR
FOG TONIGHT. THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR DENSE FOG WILL BE FOR AREAS
ALONG AND TO THE EAST OF I-65. WE WILL SEE QUIET WEATHER ON MONDAY
AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN. WE WILL SEE A BIG
WARM UP WITH HIGHS JUMPING BACK INTO THE 80S.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT SUN OCT 11 2026
WE ARE GOING TO SEE QUIET WEATHER THROUGHOUT THE WEEK AS THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE TAKES HOLD OVER THE REGION. HIGHS WILL WARM TO NEAR
RECORD TERRITORY TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE APEX OF THE RIDGE
WILL BE OVER US DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AND THAT WILL BE THE
PEAK HEATING, WEDNESDAY WILL THE DAY GREATEST AT RISK FOR
BREAKING RECORDS WITH SOME AREAS REACHING THE LOWER 90S. LATE WEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL BREAK THE RIDGE DOWN AND BRING FALLING
HEIGHTS AND PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH MIDDLE TN. HIGHS WILL START
TO COOL ON FRIDAY WITH THEM FALLING INTO THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.
THE COLDER AIR WILL REALLY FILTER IN SATURDAY WITH HIGHS DROPPING
INTO THE 60S! RAIN CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE WEEK ARE NEAR ZERO AND
THE FRONT LATE WEEK LOOKS TO BE A DRY FRONT.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 619 PM CDT SUN OCT 11 2026
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FG TONIGHT AT EASTERN TAF SITES
(CSV/SRB). AFTER DZ PUSHES EAST OUT OF THE AREA, FG IS EXPECTED TO
SET IN AROUND 9Z, DROPPING CEILINGS AND VSBYS TO LIFR THROUGH
13/14Z. AT OTHER TAF SITES, SOME PATCHY FOG COULD DEVELOP IN THE
SAME TIMEFRAME, HOWEVER, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE HIGHER (5-10
KNOTS) OUT OF THE SW WHICH WOULD DECREASE THE PROBABILITY
OVERALL. SKIES WILL BE CLEARING TOMORROW AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 55 87 61 89 / 0 0 0 0
CLARKSVILLE 56 89 61 91 / 0 0 0 0
CROSSVILLE 52 79 56 81 / 10 0 0 0
COLUMBIA 55 88 58 90 / 0 0 0 0
COOKEVILLE 53 81 59 84 / 0 0 0 0
JAMESTOWN 54 80 59 83 / 10 0 0 0
LAWRENCEBURG 54 86 57 88 / 0 0 0 0
MURFREESBORO 54 88 59 90 / 0 0 0 0
WAVERLY 57 87 61 89 / 0 0 0 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE.......REAGAN
SHORT TERM...MUELLER
LONG TERM....MUELLER
AVIATION.....HOLLEY
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