389
FXUS64 KOHX 271128
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
628 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 622 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2026
- MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH SUNDAY. NO ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED.
- NEW RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1-2 INCHES WITH LOCALIZED GREATER AMOUNTS
THROUGH SUNDAY. BRIEF, LOCALIZED FLOODING IS POSSIBLE WITH
HEAVIEST DOWNPOURS.
- DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH NEAR-NORMAL HIGHS
AND LOWS.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2026
ABUNDANT MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AS
THE WEATHER PATTERN HAS BEEN SLOW TO EVOLVE. A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IS TO OUR NORTHWEST WITH RIDGING TO OUR SOUTHEAST, SO THIS
HAS KEPT SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA WITH SOUTHERLY LOW-
LEVEL FLOW PROVIDING CONTINUED MOISTURE ADVECTION. THANKFULLY PWS
HAVE DECREASED SOMEWHAT THIS EVENING (1.5-1.6") AND BEST FORCING
HAS MOVED TO OUR NORTH. TONIGHT SHOULD BE LESS ACTIVE AND THIS
SHOULD CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW, THOUGH DIURNAL HEATING WILL LEAD TO
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS. NO ORGANIZED
FLOODING OR SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED. A MOISTURE GRADIENT
APPEARS TO DEVELOP ON THURSDAY AS DRIER AIR BUILDS TO OUR
NORTHEAST. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN MOST CONVECTION REMAINING SOUTH
OF I-40, BUT ANOTHER DAY OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS IS
EXPECTED NONETHELESS.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2026
AN OMEGA BLOCK WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE CONUS BY THE END OF
THE WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR LOOMING JUST TO OUR
NORTH. A NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST MOISTURE AXIS REMAINS EVIDENT ON
GUIDANCE AND THIS WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO FOSTER
ADDITIONAL RAIN/STORM CHANCES INTO THE WEEKEND. PWS IN THIS
MOISTURE AXIS ARE PROGGED TO RUN 1.6-1.8" WHICH IS ABOVE THE 90TH
PERCENTILE THIS TIME OF YEAR. HOWEVER, MEDIUM-RANGE GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO DEPICT THE HIGH PRESSURE/DRIER AIR MASS GRADUALLY
SHIFTING SOUTH BY SUNDAY WHICH LEADS TO DECREASING POPS THAT WILL
CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SHOULD LEND TIME TO DRY OUT
AFTER REPEATED WAVES OF DROUGHT-IMPROVING RAINFALL ACROSS MIDDLE
TENNESSEE.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2026
AN OMEGA BLOCK WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE CONUS BY THE END OF
THE WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR LOOMING JUST TO OUR
NORTH. A NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST MOISTURE AXIS REMAINS EVIDENT ON
GUIDANCE AND THIS WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO FOSTER
ADDITIONAL RAIN/STORM CHANCES INTO THE WEEKEND. PWS IN THIS
MOISTURE AXIS ARE PROGGED TO RUN 1.6-1.8" WHICH IS ABOVE THE 90TH
PERCENTILE THIS TIME OF YEAR. HOWEVER, MEDIUM-RANGE GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO DEPICT THE HIGH PRESSURE/DRIER AIR MASS GRADUALLY
SHIFTING SOUTH BY SUNDAY WHICH LEADS TO DECREASING POPS THAT WILL
CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SHOULD LEND TIME TO DRY OUT
AFTER REPEATED WAVES OF DROUGHT-IMPROVING RAINFALL ACROSS MIDDLE
TENNESSEE.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 622 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2026
SCT TO BKN MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE BUILDING IN THIS MORNING,
LIFTING BACK AROUND 3500 FT THIS AFTERNOON AS THINGS MIX OUT.
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON, BUT COVERAGE
SHOULD BE MORE LIMITED COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS. SSW WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 10 KTS BEFORE GOING LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TONIGHT. LOW STRATUS AND FOG, LOCALLY DENSE AT TIMES, WILL IMPACT
ALL TERMINALS AFTER 06Z.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 84 67 83 66 / 50 20 40 30
CLARKSVILLE 83 66 83 65 / 30 20 40 30
CROSSVILLE 78 62 79 60 / 50 30 50 10
COLUMBIA 83 66 83 65 / 50 30 60 40
COOKEVILLE 80 64 81 63 / 50 40 50 10
JAMESTOWN 80 62 81 59 / 40 40 50 0
LAWRENCEBURG 81 66 81 65 / 50 30 60 40
MURFREESBORO 84 66 84 65 / 50 30 50 20
WAVERLY 83 67 83 66 / 30 20 50 40
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...SIZEMORE
LONG TERM....SIZEMORE
AVIATION.....BAGGETT
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