108
FXUS64 KOHX 122336
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
636 PM CDT MON OCT 12 2026
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 636 PM CDT MON OCT 12 2026
- WARM, DRY WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WELL
ABOVE-NORMAL. RECORD HIGHS POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY.
- LOW RAIN/STORM CHANCES WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT, PRIMARILY
FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-40.
- A COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE ON FRIDAY BRINGING MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES INTO THIS WEEKEND.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 636 PM CDT MON OCT 12 2026
SHOULD BE A PLEASANT EVENING AHEAD OF US IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE.
CLEAR SKIES AND LOWS IN THE 50S AND 60S. FORECAST REMAINS ON
TRACK.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1145 AM CDT MON OCT 12 2026
MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING IS BUILDING ACROSS THE MID SOUTH IN
THE WAKE OF AN EXITING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. MORNING FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS HAVE MIXED OUT AND WE'RE QUICKLY WARMING THIS AFTERNOON
UNDER HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR. HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S ARE
FORECAST WEST OF THE PLATEAU TODAY. RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO
AMPLIFY/STRENGTHEN TOMORROW ALONG WITH AN INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY
BREEZE AT THE SURFACE. WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND WEAK WARM ADVECTION
TEMPERATURES WILL MAKE A RUN FOR RECORD HIGHS.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1145 AM CDT MON OCT 12 2026
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL REMAIN WARM OVERALL WITH CONTINUATION
OF TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE-NORMAL. RECORD HIGHS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE ON THESE DAYS ASSUMING CLOUDS OR A STRAY SHOWER/STORM
DON'T MESS THINGS UP. WE DO HAVE LOW RAIN/STORM CHANCES ON
WEDNESDAY, MAINLY FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-40, AS A FRONT AND
MOISTURE AXIS STRETCH WEST-TO-EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.
OTHERWISE, RIDGING WILL REMAIN PROMINENT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND
WILL INFLUENCE OUR VERY WARM TEMPERATURES AND OVERALL DRY
CONDITIONS.
A BIG COOL-DOWN IS LOOMING ON FRIDAY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A POLAR
COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM A POTENT NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. MODELS SUGGEST THIS FRONT WILL NOT COEXIST WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED MOISTURE AXIS MID WEEK, SO RAIN CHANCES ARE VERY
LOW WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE ON FRIDAY UNLESS MOISTURE VALUES CAN
INCREASE. NONETHELESS, TEMPERATURES WILL MAKE A BIG DROP FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. LOWS IN THE 40S IN 50S ARE FORECAST
FOR THE WEEKEND WITH UPPER 30S POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE
UPPER CUMBERLAND.
AT THIS TIME THERE'S NO MEANINGFUL RAINFALL FORECAST, OR ANY
SEVERE STORMS, THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. GOOD NEWS ON THE
STORMS, BUT NOT GOOD NEWS FOR WORSENING DROUGHT.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 613 PM CDT MON OCT 12 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE OUT
OF THE SSW/SW BELOW 10 KTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 61 89 66 90 / 0 0 0 10
CLARKSVILLE 61 91 68 91 / 0 0 10 50
CROSSVILLE 57 82 59 84 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBIA 59 90 64 92 / 0 0 0 10
COOKEVILLE 59 84 63 86 / 0 0 0 0
JAMESTOWN 59 83 62 85 / 0 0 0 0
LAWRENCEBURG 58 88 62 90 / 0 0 0 0
MURFREESBORO 59 90 64 91 / 0 0 0 10
WAVERLY 61 89 67 89 / 0 0 10 40
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE.......HOLLEY
SHORT TERM...SIZEMORE
LONG TERM....SIZEMORE
AVIATION.....REAGAN
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