958
FXUS64 KOHX 251139
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
539 AM CST WED FEB 25 2026
..NEW KEY MESSAGES
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 537 AM CST WED FEB 25 2026
- RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOPING LATER THIS AFTERNOON BECOMING MORE
WIDESPREAD TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER IS
POSSIBLE TONIGHT.
- GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS 20 TO 25 MPH PERSISTING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.
- MILD TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1011 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2026
SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS EVENING SHOWS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TRACKING
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AREA WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH.
BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS, A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS IN PLACE,
RESULTING IN CONTINUED GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 20 TO
25 MPH WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES WILL ALSO BE IN PLACE OVERNIGHT, HELPING TO KEEP LOWS WARMER
COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER-30S TO LOW-
40S.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE TO START WEDNESDAY, BUT RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE ON THE RISE STARTING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE ADVECTION
WILL CONTINUE DUE TO THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH PWATS RISING TO NEAR
ONE INCH BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT DROPPING
SOUTH, LOW RAIN CHANCES WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH RAIN
BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY. VERY
STRONG WIND SHEAR WILL STILL BE IN PLACE, BUT INSTABILITY
CONTINUES TO BE THE LIMITING FACTOR. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH DECENT MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 6.5-7
C/KM WHICH WILL ALLOW A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. BUT STILL, SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.
HIGHEST RAIN IS STILL EXPECTED TO FAVOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA
WITH LATEST NBM PROBABILITIES GIVING 40-55% CHANCE FOR RAIN TOTALS
OVER AN INCH BY THURSDAY EVENING. AMOUNTS OVER 1.5 INCHES ARE LOW
WITH THAT CHANCE DOWN TO 20-30% FOR AREAS AROUND COOKEVILLE AND TO
THE EAST.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1011 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2026
RAIN WILL COME TO AN END BY THURSDAY EVENING, BUT DESPITE THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE, OUR TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE 60S, AND THEN BY SATURDAY,
TEMPERATURES WILL MAKE IT INTO THE LOW-70S FOR AREAS WEST OF THE
PLATEAU. WITH DRY CONDITIONS, IT LOOKS TO BE A BEAUTIFUL WEEKEND.
LOW RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN TO THE FORECAST THOUGH LATE SUNDAY
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE APPROACHES.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 530 AM CST WED FEB 25 2026
MIDDLE TENNESSEE AIRPORTS REMAIN VFR THIS MORNING WITH CONTINUED
SW WINDS AND OCCASIONAL GUSTS 15-25 KTS. LLWS IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH ~15Z WITH WINDS 40-45 KTS AT 2K FT. SW WINDS
REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WITH A SYSTEM ALOFT AND
APPROACHING FRONT.
RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY ~00Z WITH ACCOMPANIED
MVFR CIGS NEAR A FRONT. RAIN SHOWERS INCREASE IN COVERAGE &
INTENSITY WITH IFR CIGS BY ~03Z. RAIN WILL ALSO REDUCE VIS. IFR
CIG/VIS WITH SHRA ARE FORECAST OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 61 47 61 40 / 30 90 50 20
CLARKSVILLE 60 44 59 36 / 20 70 40 10
CROSSVILLE 53 45 58 39 / 40 90 80 30
COLUMBIA 59 49 63 40 / 40 80 70 20
COOKEVILLE 55 45 58 39 / 30 90 70 20
JAMESTOWN 54 43 56 37 / 30 90 70 20
LAWRENCEBURG 59 49 63 41 / 30 80 70 30
MURFREESBORO 60 49 62 40 / 40 90 70 20
WAVERLY 59 46 60 37 / 30 80 50 10
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...CLEMENTS
LONG TERM....CLEMENTS
AVIATION.....SIZEMORE
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page