035
FXUS64 KOHX 281729
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1229 PM CDT TUE APR 28 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1223 PM CDT TUE APR 28 2026
- ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST ACROSS
THE AREA THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. THE MAIN RISKS ARE DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. THE TORNADO RISK IS LOW.
- GOOD DROUGHT RELIEF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES
ACROSS MOST OF THE MID STATE THROUGH MID-WEEK. ALTHOUGH SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND STANDING WATER MAY OCCUR,
SIGNIFICANT FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1114 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2026
LOWER CLOUDS ARE OVER TWO-THIRDS OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE THIS AFTERNOON,
WITH SUNSHINE PEEKING THROUGH SOME AREAS AND ON THE CUMBERLAND
PLATEAU. HOW MUCH SUN WE GET TODAY IS VERY IMPORTANT FOR OUR SEVERE
THREAT. THIS MORNING'S SOUNDING SHOWED A OVERTURNED BOUNDARY LAYER
DUE TO LAST NIGHT'S SEVERE WEATHER, WITH MINUSCULE CAPE AND POOR
LAPSE RATES. HOWEVER, WIND SHEAR AS WELL AS MOISTURE IN THE
ENVIRONMENT IS STILL SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE WEATHER IF WE CAN GET
SOME MORE INSTABILITY OUT THERE.
DESPITE QUESTIONS OF IF WE WILL BE ABLE TO RECHARGE, WE ARE STILL
MESSAGING A RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PROPAGATE NE FROM THE ARKLATEX OVERNIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH MIDDLE
TENNESSEE. LOOKING AT GUIDANCE, DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL
REMAIN OUR BIGGEST THREATS WITH THIS SYSTEM. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
(IF THEY PAN OUT...) WEST OF I-65 LOOK MOST FAVORABLE FOR SOME
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS, BUT NOT THE BEST PARAMETERS FOR HAIL.
THE TORNADO RISK IS LOW, BUT CANNOT BE RULED OUT. QPF WITH THE
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY SEEMS TO BE OVERDONE IN THE NBM
AND OTHER GUIDANCE, I DON'T THINK WE WILL EXCEED AN INCH AREA WIDE
FOR QPF EXCEPT IN THE CASE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WILL BE
SOMETHING WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR, BUT THE GROUND SHOULD STILL BE
ABLE TO HANDLE SOME MORE RAIN GIVEN OUR DROUGHT STATUS.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1114 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2026
INTO WEDNESDAY ONCE THE COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH, TEMPERATURES WILL
BE MORE SPRING LIKE THAN SUMMER. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BRIEFLY
POST-FRONTAL, MAKING FOR A QUIET THURSDAY. HIGHS WILL DROP INTO THE
60S, COOLING TO THE LOW 60S BY SATURDAY. FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, MORE
RAIN CHANCES ENTER THE FORECAST, BUT IT DOESN'T APPEAR AS THOUGH WE
WILL HAVE ANY SEVERE RISKS WITH THOSE RIGHT NOW. WE'LL TAKE ALL THE
RAIN WE CAN GET HERE THOUGH, SO IT IS WELCOME.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CDT TUE APR 28 2026
BKN MVFR CIGS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR OVER THE NEXT 2 HOURS AT ALL OF
THE TAF SITES. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AND IMPACT THE TERMINALS FROM WEST TO EAST. THE
CONFIDENCE IN STORM PLACEMENT IS NOT HIGH, BUT MENTIONED TEMPO AT
BNA/MQY/CKV AND PROB30 AT CSV/SRB. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
AFTER 06Z WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST AND EVENTUALLY NW. CIGS
WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN FURTHER
DETERIORATION TO IFR AFTER 09Z. VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO
BNA BY MID AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 64 76 50 71 / 100 40 10 0
CLARKSVILLE 62 74 47 70 / 100 20 10 0
CROSSVILLE 58 71 45 64 / 90 80 20 0
COLUMBIA 62 76 49 69 / 100 30 10 0
COOKEVILLE 61 72 47 65 / 90 70 20 0
JAMESTOWN 58 72 45 65 / 90 80 20 0
LAWRENCEBURG 62 75 49 68 / 90 40 10 0
MURFREESBORO 63 75 49 69 / 100 50 10 0
WAVERLY 61 72 48 68 / 100 20 10 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...HOLLEY
LONG TERM....HOLLEY
AVIATION.....REAGAN
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