576
FXUS64 KOHX 080353
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1053 PM CDT FRI AUG 7 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1026 PM CDT FRI AUG 7 2026
- SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY.
LOW COVERAGE WEST OF I-65 WITH MEDIUM COVERAGE EAST OF I-65.
- NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED, BUT ANY STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL
TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AROUND 40 MPH AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS
CAUSING LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.
- HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE UPPER 90 TO LOW 100S THIS WEEKEND,
APPROACHING 105 EACH DAY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1026 PM CDT FRI AUG 7 2026
THINGS HAVE FINALLY SIMMERED DOWN AFTER ANOTHER AFTERNOON OF
ACTIVE CONVECTION. EXPECT A VERY SIMILAR SITUATION TO UNFOLD THIS
WEEKEND WITH AFTERNOON STORMS PRODUCING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT
TRIGGER NEW STORMS THROUGH SUNSET. OVER THE WEEKEND, THE HIGHEST
POPS (60-80%) ARE CONCENTRATED SOUTH OF I-40 AND EAST OF I-65, BUT
ALMOST ALL OF MIDDLE TN HAS AT LEAST 30% POPS EACH DAY. THIS IS
ALL DUE TO A HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT - PWATS IN THE UPPER QUARTILE
NEAR 1.8 INCHES - AND A LACK OF FORCING AT THE SURFACE OR STEERING
FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS. THIS LEAVES STORMS WITH VERY SLOW
MOTIONS, CREATING HEAVY STATIONARY DOWNPOURS LEADING TO ISOLATED
INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1026 PM CDT FRI AUG 7 2026
NOT MUCH IS DIFFERENT IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST. FORECAST SURFACE
ANALYSES DON'T HAVE ANYTHING ON THE HORIZON THAT COULD BE
QUALIFIED AS A BONAFIDE COLD FRONT IN MIDDLE TN UNTIL WELL BEYOND
THE FORECAST PERIOD. POPS ARE IN THE 40-50% RANGE PRETTY MUCH
EVERY DAY WITH HOT AND HUMID AFTERNOONS. MOVING INTO NEXT WEEK,
THE AIRMASS BECOMES A LITTLE MORE SOGGY AND THUS INCREASES HEAT
INDICES BACK INTO THE TRIPLE DIGITS THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. IT
LOOKS PRETTY BORDERLINE WITH HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA RIGHT NOW, SO
THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO MONITOR ON A DAY-TO-DAY BASIS NEXT WEEK
FOR HEAT HEADLINES. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW LOOKS PRETTY MUCH ZONAL
EACH DAY, LEADING TO A PERSISTENCE FORECAST OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 643 PM CDT FRI AUG 7 2026
VFR CONDITIONS NOW WITH STORMS AWAY FROM TERMINALS. MVFR FOG
POSSIBLE AT CSV AROUND SUNRISE SATURDAY, OTHERWISE LOOK FOR
SIMILAR TS POTENTIAL ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS WE HAD TODAY. HAVE
COVERED THIS WITH PROB30S FOR NOW.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 74 91 73 91 / 10 50 20 20
CLARKSVILLE 73 91 72 92 / 10 30 10 10
CROSSVILLE 67 84 67 86 / 10 60 10 50
COLUMBIA 72 90 71 91 / 10 60 20 40
COOKEVILLE 70 86 70 87 / 10 50 10 30
JAMESTOWN 69 86 68 87 / 10 50 10 40
LAWRENCEBURG 71 88 70 88 / 10 60 20 50
MURFREESBORO 72 91 72 91 / 10 60 20 40
WAVERLY 72 90 71 90 / 20 50 20 20
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...DIRKES
LONG TERM....DIRKES
AVIATION.....UNGER
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