876
FXUS64 KOHX 210510
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1210 AM CDT MON SEP 21 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1206 AM CDT MON SEP 21 2026
- MONDAY WILL STILL BE HOT, BUT HEAT INDEX VALUES SHOULD STAY
BELOW 105 DEGREES.
- LOW TO MEDIUM STORM CHANCES WILL DEVELOP MONDAY AND TUESDAY,
MAINLY FOR AREAS EAST AND SOUTH OF NASHVILLE. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORM WINDS MONDAY.
- MAJOR HEAT RELIEF IS ON THE WAY WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING NEAR
NORMAL LEVELS BY WEDNESDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1014 PM CDT SUN SEP 20 2026
HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAS HELPED BRING ABOUT THE RECORD WARMTH OF THE
PAST SEVERAL DAYS IS FINALLY STARTING TO LOOSEN UP. TEMPERATURES
WERE STILL QUITE HOT TODAY, BUT NOT QUITE AS HOT AS ON PREVIOUS
DAYS, AND HEAT INDICES TOMORROW ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA. WE HAVE GLADLY ALLOWED THE ADVISORY TO EXPIRE.
TOMORROW, WE DO EXPECT SOME RAIN AND STORM DEVELOPMENT, MAINLY IN
AREAS TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF NASHVILLE, AS A SURFACE TROUGH
DEVELOPS ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE. THIS WILL PROVIDE SOME FOCUSING
FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT, AND WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO FINALLY SPREAD INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE. INDEED, THE
CONTRAST FROM TOMORROW TO TUESDAY WILL BE REMARKABLE. RAIN AND
STORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ON TUESDAY ACROSS THE SAME AREAS, THEN
LOOK FOR AN UPPER TROUGH TO COME THROUGH AND PUSH EVERYTHING OFF
TO THE EAST.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1014 PM CDT SUN SEP 20 2026
OUR RAIN AND STORM CHANCES WILL GREATLY DIMINISH AFTER TUESDAY,
WITH MAYBE COME LINGERING CHANCES ALONG THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU ON
WEDNESDAY, THEN WE CAN EXPECT MORE DRY WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE COOLER WEATHER PATTERN
WILL HOLD THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE TEMPERATURES START TO CREEP
BACK UP, BUT NOTHING CLOSE TO THE EXTREME HEAT WE'VE JUST COME
THROUGH.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1206 AM CDT MON SEP 21 2026
SCATTERED POP-UP THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS MIDDLE TN THIS
EVENING, BUT SHOULD DIMINISH BY 08Z. OUTSIDE OF THESE STORMS, VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. VFR
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF MONDAY AS WELL WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS. ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AFTER 18Z. CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING
IS LOW AND HAVE MAINTAINED THE PROB30 GROUPS AT ALL TAF SITES.
STORM COVERAGE SHOULD TAPER OFF BETWEEN 03Z AND 06Z AS WINDS TURN
NORTHERLY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 97 70 88 65 / 30 40 40 10
CLARKSVILLE 96 68 86 62 / 10 10 10 0
CROSSVILLE 88 64 84 61 / 40 40 70 50
COLUMBIA 98 69 91 65 / 30 30 40 10
COOKEVILLE 91 67 84 64 / 40 40 50 30
JAMESTOWN 88 66 82 62 / 30 40 50 40
LAWRENCEBURG 96 68 90 64 / 30 40 40 10
MURFREESBORO 97 69 91 65 / 30 40 50 10
WAVERLY 94 69 86 64 / 10 20 10 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM....ROSE
AVIATION.....CLEMENTS
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