825
FXUS64 KOHX 250533
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1233 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1227 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2026
- MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES FOR RAIN & STORMS EACH DAY THIS WEEK.
- RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2-3 INCHES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEK,
WITH A MEDIUM CHANCE OF AMOUNTS GREATER THAN 4 INCHES. LOCALIZED
FLOODING POSSIBLE AT TIMES.
- NO ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED, BUT A FEW STRONGER
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. STRONG WIND GUSTS AND BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS ARE THE MAIN THREATS.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2026
A SURFACE BOUNDARY/TROUGH IS SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE
CURRENTLY WHICH LED TO DEVELOPMENT OF RAIN SHOWERS NEAR HERE AT
OHX THAT PRODUCED BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AND MINOR FLOODING. THIS
HAS BEEN THE THEME FOR A FEW DAYS NOW AS ANOMALOUS MOISTURE VALUES
AND LOW-MEDIUM INSTABILITY HAVE COMBINED TO SUPPORT FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINS AT TIMES. BENEFICIAL RAINFALL HAS
CERTAINLY COME IN HANDY FOR THE DROUGHT AND STREAMFLOWS HAVE
RECOVERED NICELY OVER PORTIONS OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE.
FOR TONIGHT, MOST RAIN ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE AT A MINIMUM.
CLOUDS WILL LINGER AND WINDS ARE LOOKING TO BE NEAR CALM. WITH SO
MUCH MOISTURE AT THE SURFACE, PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. LOCALLY DENSE FOG CANNOT BE RULED OUT, BUT
THERE'S NO CURRENT SIGN OF WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG AT THIS TIME DUE
TO CLOUD COVER.
WHILE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DEPART TO OUR NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT,
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS NOW BEGINNING TO MEANDER TO OUR SOUTHWEST.
THIS DISTURBANCE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST INTO MONDAY MORNING AND
SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT TROPICAL MOISTURE
INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW
STORMS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON. POOR LAPSE RATES
WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY AND EFF. BULK SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN <20 KTS.
NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED BUT BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE
POSSIBLE WHICH MAY CAUSE MINOR FLOODING. TUESDAY WILL ALMOST BE A
REPEAT OF MONDAY WITH CONTINUED INFLUENCE OF THE WEAKENING UPPER-
LEVEL LOW IN THE REGION.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2026
MIDDLE TENNESSEE WILL SEE CONTINUED RAIN CHANCES MID TO LATE WEEK
AS A TROPICAL AIRMASS REMAINS SITUATED IN THE REGION. BEST CHANCES
WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHEN INSTABILITY
INCREASES DIURNALLY. MEDIUM-RANGE GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT A COLD
FRONT MOVING INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH WOULD LEAD TO
DRIER AIR AND A DECREASE IN RAIN/CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1227 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2026
LOW CIGS AND PATCHY MVFR TO IFR FOG WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN
OVERNIGHT. OBS DOWNSTREAM SHOW CIGS ANYWHERE FROM 200 FT TO 2000
FT, SO EXPECT SOME VARIABILITY. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN THIS
AFTERNOON, PRIMARILY AFTER 18Z WHEN INSTABILITY RAMPS BACK UP.
LAPSE RATES ARE LOWER THOUGH, SO THIS COULD KEEP TSRA COVERAGE
MORE LIMITED THAN IN PREVIOUS DAYS. THERE'S A BIT MORE UNCERTAINTY
IN SHOWER COVERAGE AFTER 00Z WITH SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTING
ANOTHER WAVE OF -SHRA LATER MONDAY EVENING AND OTHERS KEEPING
THING A BIT DRIER. WILL REASSESS WITH THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE. WINDS
WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND GENERALLY OUT OF THE EAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 80 65 81 66 / 60 60 70 50
CLARKSVILLE 80 65 80 66 / 40 50 70 60
CROSSVILLE 75 62 76 62 / 80 80 80 50
COLUMBIA 80 64 81 65 / 70 70 60 50
COOKEVILLE 78 64 79 64 / 70 70 70 40
JAMESTOWN 77 61 78 62 / 80 80 80 50
LAWRENCEBURG 78 64 79 65 / 70 70 60 50
MURFREESBORO 81 64 81 66 / 70 60 60 50
WAVERLY 80 66 80 67 / 50 50 70 60
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...SIZEMORE
LONG TERM....SIZEMORE
AVIATION.....BAGGETT
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