740
FXUS64 KOHX 040446
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1046 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1045 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2026
- AFTERNOON HIGHS 10-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEK. A COUPLE
OF RECORDS MAY FALL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
- UNSETTLED WEATHER THIS WEEKEND WITH MEDIUM TO HIGH RAIN CHANCES.
THE RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER OR FLOODING IS VERY LOW.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 902 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2026
A VERY MILD AND MOSTLY DRY PERIOD CONTINUES WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT DOMINATES. EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80
ACROSS MIDDLE TN, WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND
POTENTIALLY TYING OR APPROACHING DAILY RECORDS IN SOME SPOTS. LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT STAY MILD IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. THURSDAY LOOKS
SIMILAR WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY TO PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND HIGHS
AGAIN IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S, THOUGH ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY
DEVELOP LATE IN THE DAY OR EVENING AS A WEEK DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THURSDAY NIGHT TURNS PARTLY CLOUDY WITH
LOWS AROUND 60. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE FROM THE SSW.
OVERALL, THIS STRETCH FEELS MORE LIKE LATE SPRING THAN EARLY
MARCH. KEEP AN EYE ON THOSE POLLEN LEVELS.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 902 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2026
THE PATTERN SHIFTS TOWARD MORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STALLS NEARBY AND MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES TRACK THROUGH THE
REGION. FRIDAY STARTS MOSTLY SUNNY AND VERY WARM WITH HIGHS
PUSHING INTO THE MID 80S (ANOTHER SHOT AT RECORDS), BUT A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS DEVELOPS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGS INCREASING RAIN CHANCES,
ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AND AGAIN EARLY NEXT
WEEK, WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS.
TOTAL RAINFALL BETWEEN 1-2 INCHES IS LIKELY WITH MORE IN SOME
SPOTS. THE SEVERE WEATHER RISK APPEARS LOW AT THIS TIME, WITH WEAK
SHEAR AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY. TEMPERATURES TREND SLIGHTLY
COOLER BUT STILL ABOVE AVERAGE, HIGHS IN THE 70S MOST DAYS, WITH
LOWS IN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S. BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, THE
PATTERN LOOKS TO STABILIZE SOMEWHAT WITH DECREASING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES AND HIGHS RETURNING TO THE UPPER 70S.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1045 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2026
VFR CONDITIONS TO START THIS TAF CYCLE, HOWEVER MVFR CIGS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FOR ALL TERMINALS BETWEEN 10-14Z TOMORROW
MORNING. THIS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY SHORT LIVED WITH EVERYONE
RETURNING TO VFR BY 19-20Z/WED. SOUTH WINDS HAVE RELAXED TO 10 KTS
OR LESS AND WILL BEGIN GUSTING AGAIN AROUND 14Z TOMORROW.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 59 79 62 81 / 10 10 20 0
CLARKSVILLE 59 78 63 78 / 10 20 40 50
CROSSVILLE 53 73 57 75 / 0 0 10 0
COLUMBIA 59 78 61 80 / 0 10 20 0
COOKEVILLE 56 74 60 77 / 10 10 10 0
JAMESTOWN 54 73 58 76 / 10 10 10 0
LAWRENCEBURG 58 78 60 80 / 0 0 10 0
MURFREESBORO 59 78 62 80 / 0 10 10 0
WAVERLY 60 77 63 79 / 10 10 40 20
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...CRAVENS
LONG TERM....CRAVENS
AVIATION.....UNGER
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