344
FXUS64 KOHX 271758
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1258 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1253 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2026
- THERE ARE HIGH RAIN AND STORM CHANCES THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.
HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN
EFFECT ACROSS NORTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND THE CUMBERLAND
PLATEAU.
- THERE IS A LOW SEVERE WEATHER THREAT (LEVEL 2 OUT OF 5) THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT FOR MAINLY STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS. THE
TORNADO RISK IS LOW.
- DANGEROUS HEAT(!!!) AND HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH LATE
NEXT WEEK WITH TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT INDICES EXPECTED ON A DAILY
BASIS! AN EXTREME HEAT WATCH IS IN EFFECT MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY FOR MOST OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1115 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2026
SO FAR THIS MORNING, THINGS HAVE BEEN RATHER CALM AS THE BULK OF
THE FLOODING HAS BEEN JUST TO OUR NORTH IN KENTUCKY. WE'VE HAD A
FEW SHOWERS AND A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO SO FAR THIS MORNING,
BUT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE WE'RE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE IMPULSE THAT
MOVED THROUGH THIS MORNING. WITH THAT SAID, ANOTHER MCV IS ON ITS
HEELS OVER ARKANSAS AND MISSOURI AND THIS WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER
FOCUS FOR THE AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
CURRENTLY, WE'RE SEEING SOME CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS WEST
TENNESSEE AND ANTICIPATE THIS TO GROW IN COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. CAMS ARE ONCE AGAIN A LITTLE ALL OVER THE BOARD ON
SOLUTIONS, BUT IT'S INCREDIBLY DIFFICULT TO IGNORE THE POTENTIAL
OF STORMS TO TRAIN LIKE WHAT OUR FRIENDS TO THE NORTH ARE
CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING. SO WHEREVER THIS LINE OF TRAINING STORMS
SETS UP, WILL CAUSE TROUBLE. THERE'S MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THAT THIS
WILL BE OVER NORTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE WITH THE BEST CHANCES
ACROSS NORTH OF I-40 AND THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU. TOTAL RAINFALL OF
1-3 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
AS FAR AS SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES, A LOT DEPENDS ON HOW THIS
SITUATION EVOLVES. DAMAGING WINDS/WET MICROBURSTS ARE THE MAIN
THREATS, BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT A TORNADO ESPECIALLY WITH A SURGING
BOW SEGMENT/BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS WITH LCLS SO LOW.
ONCE THE RAIN ENDS SUNDAY MORNING, THE HEAT WILL TURN ON! HIGHS IN
THE LOW TO MID 90S CAN BE EXPECTED. COUPLE THAT WITH HIGH
HUMIDITY, MANY LOCATIONS WILL EXPERIENCE HEAT INDICIES WELL OVER
100+F. BUT THIS WILL JUST BE OUR FIRST TASTE OF THE HEAT THAT'S IN
STORE FOR THE AREA FOR THE WEEK.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1115 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2026
WE'VE BEEN QUITE LUCKY HERE IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE SO FAR THIS
SUMMER WITH A REASONABLE AND SHOULD I SAY ALMOST PLEASANT SUMMER
AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES. WELL, THAT LUCK RUNS OUT BEGINNING SUNDAY
WITH THINGS CRANKING UP A FEW MORE NOTCHES BY MONDAY.
SINCE THIS IS THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT HEAT WAVE OF THE SUMMER, WE
REALLY WANTED TO GET THE MESSAGE OUT EARLY THAT EXTREME HEAT AND
HIGH HUMIDITY WILL SET UP CAMP OVER THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST
FRIDAY. AND SINCE THIS MIGHT BE THE MOST OUTDOORSY WEEK/WEEKEND
COMING UP WITH THE HOLIDAY, WE WANTED TO MAKE SURE EVERYONE PLANS
ACCORDINGLY FOR ANY OUTDOOR EVENTS SCHEDULED.
MOST OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE CUMBERLAND
PLATEAU WILL BE IMPACTED WITH AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX READINGS
BETWEEN 105F-109F DEGREES WITH SOME LOCATIONS TOPPING OVER 110+F.
AND TO PUT SALT INTO OUR WOUNDS EVEN MORE, LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
UNFORTUNATELY JUST NOT GET THAT LOW WITH THESE SAME LOCATIONS
EXPERIENCING LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WHICH WON'T ALLOW MUCH
FOR OVERNIGHT COOLING RECOVERY.
CONFIDENCE IS VERY HIGH FOR HEAT IMPACTS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. AS
WE GET TO MID AND END OF THE WEEK, SOME LUCKY LOCATIONS COULD SEE
AN SMALL INCREASE IN CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING POP-UP
THUNDERSTORMS. OBVIOUSLY, ANY POP-UP THUNDERSTORMS THAT CAN
DEVELOP WOULD BE A WELCOME SHORT-TERM RELIEF TO THE HEAT, BUT
TRULY DON'T THINK WIDESPREAD STORMS WILL DEVELOP TO SIGNIFICANTLY
IMPACT OUR HEAT WAVE. BUT AT THIS POINT AFTER LOOKING AT THESE
TEMPERATURES, I'M HOLDING ON TO THE CHANCE.
REGARDLESS, BRACE YOURSELVES FOR THE HEAT, HUMIDITY, AND A SLEW
OF HEAT ADVISORIES AND POSSIBLY EVEN EXTREME HEAT WARNINGS FOR
THIS UPCOMING WORK WEEK/HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2026
ISO/SCT CONVECTION CURRENTLY DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA, MAINLY
NEAR CKV AND CSV AT THIS TIME. LOOKS LIKE ACTIVITY WILL BE LATER
IN THE DAY FOR BNA AND MQY, BUT WILL MONITOR FOR ANY TAF
ADJUSTMENTS. SHRA/TSRA COULD BE SOMEWHAT PERSISTENT IN SOME
AREAS, SO THE PROB30S ARE SOMEWHAT BROAD IN TIMING. WINDS WILL BE
SW AT 5-10 KTS WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS FOR THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON. FLIGHT CATS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR OVERALL, OUTSIDE
OF ANY CONVECTION OR THICKER CU THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUDS BASES ARE
025-035 BUT IS BKN IN SOME AREAS. MVFR CIGS ARE IN THE TAFS FOR
SRB AND CSV OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 74 93 75 96 / 60 20 10 0
CLARKSVILLE 73 93 74 96 / 70 10 0 0
CROSSVILLE 68 85 70 89 / 80 60 20 10
COLUMBIA 74 94 73 96 / 30 10 0 0
COOKEVILLE 70 87 72 91 / 90 60 20 0
JAMESTOWN 68 85 70 90 / 90 80 30 10
LAWRENCEBURG 73 91 73 94 / 30 10 0 0
MURFREESBORO 73 94 74 96 / 60 20 10 0
WAVERLY 73 93 73 96 / 40 10 0 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR TNZ005>011-023>034-059-
062>066-077>080.
EXTREME HEAT WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
FOR TNZ005>010-023>032-056>064-075-093>095.
SHORT TERM...HURLEY
LONG TERM....HURLEY
AVIATION.....SIZEMORE
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