777
FXUS64 KOHX 262256
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
556 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2020
UPDATE
FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
DISCUSSION
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE MIDSTATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND MAY INCREASE IN COVERAGE BY EARLY EVENING. A
FEW STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL ARE
POSSIBLE. THE SEVERE THREAT REMAINS LOW AND ACTIVITY SHOULD
DECREASE AROUND OR JUST AFTER SUNSET. SOME SHOWERS MAY PERSIST
OVERNIGHT AROUND THE TENNESSEE RIVER AS THE UPPER LOW TO OUR WEST
PROVIDES A STEADY STREAM OF MOISTURE ACROSS THAT AREA. THAT UPPER
LOW, WHICH IS POSITIONED OVER OKLAHOMA MAY TAKE A SMALL SLOW
WOBBLE TO THE EAST OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS, BUT ISN'T
EXPECTED TO MAKE ANY BIG MOVES DURING THAT TIME. SO SIMILAR
WEATHER WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
MORNING. BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON, THE LOW SHOULD HAVE PUSHED FURTHER
EAST OVER ARKANSAS AS IT WEAKENS AND BEGINS TO MERGE WITH A MID
LEVEL TROUGH. BULK SHEAR VALUES WILL INCREASE TO JUST UNDER 30
KNOTS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THIS, ALONG WITH THE SUMMERTIME
AIRMASS IN PLACE SHOULD PROVIDE A DECENT ENVIRONMENT FOR A FEW
MORE STRONG STORMS THROUGHOUT THE DAYTIME HOURS. WE SHOULD SEE A
LULL IN ACTIVITY LATE THURSDAY AND EARLY FRIDAY, BUT A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY AND BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO THE AREA. EXPECT MOST OF THE PRECIP TO
EXIT MIDDLE TENNESSEE BY MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WON'T CHANGE MUCH BEHIND THE FRONT. WE'RE
EXPECTING LOW TO MID 80S BEFORE AND AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
HOWEVER, IT SHOULD FEEL LESS MUGGY AS DEWPOINTS FALL NEARLY 10
DEGREES FROM FRIDAY TO SUNDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING SHOULD BE IN THE 50S. DRY WEATHER WILL
STICK AROUND FROM SATURDAY THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCES.
AVIATION
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.
DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
OFF AN ON SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT, PRIMARILY
ACROSS WESTERN MIDDLE TN. THE BETTER MOISTURE CHANNEL WILL SHIFT
SLIGHTLY EAST ON WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW OVER TX SLOWLY MOVES
OUR WAY. COMPARED TO TODAY, SHOULD SEE AN EQUAL LEVEL OR PERHAPS A
LITTLE MORE RAINFALL COVERAGE TOMORROW. AT THAT TIME, GENERAL
TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST.
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION......UNGER
AVIATION........21
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