644
FXUS64 KOHX 130540
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1140 PM CST THU FEB 12 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1138 PM CST THU FEB 12 2026
- DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING FOLLOWED BY A MILD AND
WET WEEKEND.
- NEAR 100% RAIN CHANCE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH TOTAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1-2 INCHES. FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME.
- ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1025 PM CST THU FEB 12 2026
HIGH PRESSURE IS SITUATED TO OUR NORTH, KEEPING THINGS CALM AND
QUIET OUT TONIGHT. ASIDE FROM A FEW PASSING HIGH CLOUDS, SKIES
WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT AND TEMPERATURES WILL DROP AROUND
THE FREEZING MARK FOR MOST. A FEW SPOTS ALONG THE CUMBERLAND
PLATEAU WILL DROP INTO THE 20S. FRIDAY'S FORECAST FEATURES MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES WITH HIGHS WARMING NEAR 60 DEGREES AS THE SURFACE
RIDGE CONTINUES ITS TREK EAST. FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE ANOTHER CHILLY
ONE, THOUGH NOT QUITE AS COLD AS TONIGHT; LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 30S. MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
LATE FRIDAY AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT WILL BRING
WIDESPREAD RAIN BACK TO THE AREA STARTING SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AS
FLOW ALOFT INCREASES, A STEADY STREAM OF ANOMALOUSLY HIGH MOISTURE
WILL FLOW INTO MIDDLE TN, LEADING TO INSTANCES OF HEAVY RAIN AT
TIMES. FORTUNATELY, WITH US BEING ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THIS
SYSTEM, WE WON'T HAVE TO WORRY ABOUT SEVERE WEATHER AS INSTABILITY
IS DISPLACED TO OUR SOUTH. THIS LACK OF INSTABILITY WILL ALSO
HINDER ANY WIDESPREAD FLOODING THREAT AS RAIN RATES WILL BE LOW
OVERALL. A FEW SPOTS OF PONDING ON ROADS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WILL
RISES ON STREAMS AND CREEKS, BUT FLASH FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1025 PM CST THU FEB 12 2026
RAIN WILL COME TO AN END SUNDAY NIGHT WITH RAINFALL TOTALS RANGING
SOMEWHERE BETWEEN 1-2". THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING 2" REMAINS
LOW, AROUND 30%. RIDGING WILL QUICKLY BUILD IN MONDAY, SENDING
HIGHS UP INTO THE MID 60S. THIS RIDGE IS SLATED TO KEEP AN
INFLUENCE OVER OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE BULK OF NEXT WEEK,
RESULTING IN WELL ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL WARM INTO
THE 70S DURING THIS TIME, AND WE MAY BE FLIRTING WITH RECORD
HIGHS AGAIN IN NASHVILLE. FORTUNATELY, THE WEATHER LOOKS DRY FOR
MOST OF THE WEEK. RAIN CHANCES RE-ENTER THE FORECAST NEXT FRIDAY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CST THU FEB 12 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THIS TAF CYCLE. LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS WILL
SHIFT ESE AFTER 15Z WITH PASSING HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 33 61 38 62 / 0 0 0 50
CLARKSVILLE 31 60 37 61 / 0 0 0 70
CROSSVILLE 29 54 33 57 / 0 0 0 10
COLUMBIA 32 61 37 61 / 0 0 0 50
COOKEVILLE 30 57 35 60 / 0 0 0 20
JAMESTOWN 28 54 32 59 / 0 0 0 10
LAWRENCEBURG 32 60 38 60 / 0 0 0 50
MURFREESBORO 31 61 35 63 / 0 0 0 50
WAVERLY 34 60 39 59 / 0 0 0 70
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...BAGGETT
LONG TERM....BAGGETT
AVIATION.....BAGGETT
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