937
FXUS64 KOHX 090351 CCA
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1050 PM CDT SUN MAR 8 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1024 PM CDT SUN MAR 8 2026
- UNSETTLE WEATHER MONDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOW CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY -
WEDNESDAY.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH MID-WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1024 PM CDT SUN MAR 8 2026
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A WARM AND INCREASINGLY MOIST
AIR MASS ADVECTING INTO MIDDLE TN TODAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH. DRY CONDITIONS TO START THE DAY WITH MILD TEMPERATURES AND
SSW WINDS 10-12 MPH. A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING, LEADING TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING FIRST ACROSS THE WEST AROUND 21-
00Z THEN SPREADING EAST. CAPE 600-1200 J/KG, EFFECTIVE SHEAR 30-40
KT, AND LAPSE RATES AROUND 7 C/KM SUPPORT A LOW-END SEVERE THREAT,
ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-40. OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY THE SHORTWAVE
LINGERS, KEEPING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITH
LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE. BY TUESDAY MORNING, THE
SHORTWAVE EXITS EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD FROM THE SW.
LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST BY MID-MORNING.
THE AFTERNOON LOOKS DRY AND WARMER WITH WINDS 10-12 MPH AND HIGHS
REACHING THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80. TUESDAY NIGHT REMAINS DRY UNDER
INCREASING 850MB RIDGING. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S WITH
LIGHT SOUTH WINDS.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1024 PM CDT SUN MAR 8 2026
AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE CENTRAL US, DRIVING A STRONG COLD
FRONT THROUGH MIDDLE TN WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WEDNESDAY
BECOMES THE FOCAL DAY FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AND STORMS.
WARM, HUMID AIR (PWATS 1.2-1.5) AHEAD OF THE FRONT FUEL SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING THROUGH THE MORNING, BECOMING
WIDESPREAD BY THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE FRONT SWEEPS EAST.
STRONG SHEAR AND MODERATE INSTABILITY SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR
ORGANIZED LINES OR CLUSTERS OF STORMS. PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE
DAMAGING WINDS, HEAVY RAIN, AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL. THERE IS A LOW-
END TORNADO THREAT WITH ANY DISCRETE CELLS AHEAD OF THE LINE.
THURSDAY POST-FRONTAL BRINGS A SHARP COOLDOWN WITH NW WINDS
BETWEEN 15-20 MPH. HIGHS STRUGGLE TO THE MID-UPPER 50S WITH DRIER
AIR FILTERING IN. CONDITIONS TURN MOSTLY SUNNY AND SEASONABLE
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS. HIGHS
REBOUND TO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S FRIDAY AND MID 60S BY
SATURDAY.
DRY WEATHER PREVAILS INTO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. RETURN
FLOW RESUMES BY SUNDAY/MONDAY WITH HIGHS CLIMBING BACK TO THE
LOW-MID 70S UNDER FLATTENING RIDGE. NO SIGNIFICANT RAIN EXPECTED
AFTER WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. PATTERN
FAVORS A BRIEF COOLER SPELL MID-WEEK THEN QUICK RECOVERY TO
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPS.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 636 PM CDT SUN MAR 8 2026
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE HAS QUICKLY BECOME THE DOMINANT
WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE, BUT THERE IS STILL ENOUGH
RESIDUAL BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TO KEEP LOW CEILINGS IN PLACE
OVERNIGHT, MAINLY ALONG THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU, ALONG WITH SOME
RADIATION FOG TOWARD MORNING IN A FEW SPOTS. SURFACE WINDS WILL
INCREASE FROM THE S/SW DURING THE DAY MONDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 49 77 63 80 / 0 30 50 40
CLARKSVILLE 47 77 63 81 / 0 20 50 10
CROSSVILLE 50 74 58 74 / 0 10 70 70
COLUMBIA 50 76 61 81 / 0 40 60 40
COOKEVILLE 51 74 60 76 / 0 20 60 70
JAMESTOWN 48 74 57 75 / 0 10 60 70
LAWRENCEBURG 51 75 61 79 / 0 40 70 40
MURFREESBORO 50 76 61 79 / 0 30 60 50
WAVERLY 48 75 61 79 / 0 30 60 20
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT MONDAY FOR TNZ061>063-075-
077>079-095.
SHORT TERM...CRAVENS
LONG TERM....CRAVENS
AVIATION.....ROSE
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