438
FXUS64 KOHX 010539
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1239 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1237 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2026
- EXPECT DANGEROUS HEAT AND HUMIDITY THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK. AN
EXTREME HEAT WARNING IS IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA.
- HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 90S ACROSS THE
WARNING AREA, WITH AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES AS HOT AS 110+.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO REMAIN UNCOMFORTABLY WARM, ONLY FALLING
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S MOST AREAS.
- LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN AND STORMS WILL BEGIN TO EMERGE TODAY, WITH
BETTER CHANCES THIS WEEKEND. THE STRONGEST STORMS MAY PRODUCE
GUSTY WINDS AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1037 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2026
THE UPPER RIDGE IS PARKED RIGHT OVER THE AREA TONIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES REMAINING WARM IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. THE HIGH
WILL WOBBLE SLIGHTLY NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY WHICH WON'T DO
ANYTHING TO RELIEVE THE HEAT, BUT IT WILL ALLOW THE INTRODUCTION
OF SOME LOW POPS IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA ALONG THE TN/AL
BORDER. THURSDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY WITH MODELS SHOWING
SLIGHTLY MORE DIURNAL SCATTERED SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY SHIFTING
INTO OUR AREA. WHILE THE SHEAR WILL BE VERY LOW, THE AMPLE
INSTABILITY MAY SUPPORT AN ISOLATED WET MICROBURST PRESENTING A
LOW DAMAGING WIND THREAT.
IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS, THE EXTREME HEAT RISK WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S
WITH LOW TO MID 70 DEW POINTS. THAT WILL YIELD AFTERNOON HEAT
INDICES IN THE 100-110 DEGREE RANGE. WITH THE UPPER HIGH NEAR THE
AREA, WINDS WILL BE VERY LIGHT WHICH DOESN'T HELP. THE RESPITE
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MINIMAL WITH LOWS
CONTINUING TO ONLY DROP TO THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1037 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2026
THE UPPER HIGH WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD AND BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS WE
PROGRESS INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL START A SLOW DOWNWARD TREND IN
TEMPERATURES AND UPWARD TREND IN STORM CHANCES. THE "COOLING" WILL
BE GRADUAL, SO WE WILL NOT SUDDENLY GET RID OF THE DANGEROUS
HEAT. HEAT INDICES WILL CONTINUE TO BE 100+ FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. AS WE GET INTO NEXT WEEK, WEAK TROUGHING WILL SLOWLY
DEVELOP OVER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ALLOWING OUR TEMPERATURES
TO SETTLE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL.
IN REGARDS TO THE INDEPENDENCE DAY FESTIVITIES, THERE WILL BE SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DODGE. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT
COVERAGE SHOULD DECREASE AFTER SUNSET. RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE ON SUNDAY AS THE HIGH LOSES THE INFLUENCE OVER THE AREA.
THOSE CHANCES WILL INCREASE FURTHER EARLY NEXT WEEK AS OUR
PATTERN BECOMES A BIT MORE TROUGHY AND THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAINS RICH. AS FAR AS STRONG STORM POTENTIAL, A COUPLE WET
MICROBURSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE WATER-
LOADED UPDRAFTS. IN ADDITION, RAIN RATES WILL BE HIGH ALONG WITH
SLOW STORM MOTION. THIS WILL POSE A LOW LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD
THREAT.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1237 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2026
GOOD FLYING WEATHER WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS.
THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE A FEW HOURS OF MVFR VIS AT CSV/SRB
FROM 09-12Z TONIGHT. BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE, TOO.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 99 79 99 79 / 10 10 20 20
CLARKSVILLE 97 77 97 77 / 0 0 30 10
CROSSVILLE 93 73 94 73 / 0 10 20 10
COLUMBIA 99 76 99 75 / 20 10 40 20
COOKEVILLE 94 74 95 74 / 0 10 10 10
JAMESTOWN 93 72 94 72 / 0 0 10 10
LAWRENCEBURG 96 75 96 75 / 20 10 40 20
MURFREESBORO 100 77 100 76 / 10 10 30 30
WAVERLY 98 76 97 75 / 10 0 40 10
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR TNZ005>010-
023>032-056>064-075-093>095.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR TNZ011-033-034-065-066-
077>080.
SHORT TERM...REAGAN
LONG TERM....REAGAN
AVIATION.....UNGER
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