101
FXUS64 KOHX 071751
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1251 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1248 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2026
- PERIODIC SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEK WITH LOW SEVERE
STORM CHANCES.
- EXPECT HEAVY RAINFALL WITH STORMS AS PWATS REACH NEAR RECORD
TERRITORY THROUGH MID WEEK. MEDIUM CHANCE FOR MINOR FLOODING IN
URBAN AREAS AND POOR DRAINAGE/LOW-LYING AREAS.
- HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS THIS WEEK AS HEAT INDICES REACH THE
90S EARLY WEEK AND EVEN NEAR 100 BY MID WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1124 AM CDT SUN JUN 7 2026
A WET PATTERN IS UNDERWAY TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE
AND A SURFACE BOUNDARY DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION, SUPPORTED BY A
TROUGH TO THE WEST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING S OF
I-65 AND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH N THROUGH MIDDLE TN THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THE OVERALL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS LOW. ANY
ISOLATED STRONGER STORMS COULD BRING GUSTY WINDS, LIGHTNING, AND
HEAVY RAINFALL. HEAVY RAINFALL IS THE PRIMARY CONCERN DUE TO HIGH
PWAT VALUES, WHICH COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING IN HEAVIER
DOWNPOURS.
HIGHS TODAY REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
LOW TO MID 70S. MONDAY LOOKS SIMILAR, WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LIKELY, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR
SEVERE WEATHER W OF I-65 DURING THIS TIME. MAIN THREATS WILL BE
HEAVY RAIN AND THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG DAMAGING WINDS. LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING WILL ONCE AGAIN BE THE MAIN CONCERN.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1124 AM CDT SUN JUN 7 2026
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME REGIME. MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY WILL FEATURE CONTINUED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES, WITH HIGHEST ACTIVITY THROUGH THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WARM AS HIGHS CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOW/MID
90S BY WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY (SOME 90+ DAYS). DEW POINTS
REMAIN ELEVATED, PUSHING HEAT INDICES INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S
AND POTENTIALLY NEAR 100 AT TIMES BY MID WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2026
A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT
TERMINALS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, BRINGING AN ASSOCIATED LOW CLOUD
DECK WITH IT. LOW MVFR TO IFR CIGS WILL BE IN PLACE THIS EVENING
THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY MORNING WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE
NIGHT. RAINFALL PICKS BACK UP AFTER 12Z MONDAY. SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD, GENERALLY LESS
THAN 10 KTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 71 84 71 87 / 60 80 60 80
CLARKSVILLE 71 85 71 88 / 50 80 70 80
CROSSVILLE 67 75 66 79 / 70 90 50 80
COLUMBIA 70 84 70 87 / 60 80 40 70
COOKEVILLE 68 79 68 83 / 70 90 60 90
JAMESTOWN 66 77 66 82 / 50 90 50 90
LAWRENCEBURG 70 82 70 85 / 60 80 40 70
MURFREESBORO 71 83 70 87 / 60 80 50 80
WAVERLY 71 85 71 88 / 60 70 60 70
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...CRAVENS
LONG TERM....CRAVENS
AVIATION.....BAGGETT
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