309
FXUS64 KOHX 041800
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1200 PM CST WED MAR 4 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1156 AM CST WED MAR 4 2026
- AFTERNOON HIGHS 10-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEK. A COUPLE
OF RECORDS MAY FALL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
- UNSETTLED WEATHER THIS WEEKEND WITH MEDIUM TO HIGH RAIN CHANCES.
THE RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER OR FLOODING IS LOW.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1156 AM CST WED MAR 4 2026
A SHORT WAVE IS PUSHING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH A STATIONARY
FRONT SITTING TO OUR NORTH AND A COLD FRONT TO OUR WEST OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE SHORT WAVE WILL SLOWLY LIFT INTO THE GREAT
LAKES OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS. MOST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY
INTO THE OVERNIGHT WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT AND AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE (<20%) THAT A FEW MAKE IT IN TO OUR FAR WESTERN AND
NORTHWEST COUNTIES. CAPE THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE NEAR 1000 J/KG
WEST OF I-65 WITH 30-40 KNOTS OF BULK SHEAR. IF A STORM POPS UP
THIS AFTERNOON IT WOULD HAVE A VERY LOW CHANCE OF BECOMING STRONG
BUT WE WILL BE LAKING FORCING. CAPE FALLS OFF AND BECOMES ELEVATED
AS WE HEAD INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, NO SEVERE RISK
EXPECTED.
AS THE SHORT WAVE LIFTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES THE COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH INTO OUR WESTERN COUNTIES TOWARDS DAYBREAK. THIS WILL BRING A
MEDIUM CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS TO
NORTHWESTERN AREAS. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT PUSHES WEST AND WE
WILL SEE RAIN CHANCES DECREASE. DRY WEATHER SETTLES IN BY THE
MID-AFTERNOON AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR EAST.
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL WARM THINGS UP NICELY FOR TODAY AND TOMORROW
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80. IT WILL ALSO FEEL MORE
HUMID WITH DEW POINTS IN MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1156 AM CST WED MAR 4 2026
WE WILL BE ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ON FRIDAY AND
A FEW WEAK SHORT WAVES COULD SPIN AROUND THE RIDGE. THIS WILL
BRING A LOW CHANCE (20-40%) FOR SOME POP UP SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CAPE WILL CLIMB TO
AROUND 1000 J/KG DURING THE AFTERNOON. BULK SHEAR LOOKS TO REMAIN
AT OR BELOW 20 KNOTS AND WE WILL LACK ANY GOOD FORCING. THIS WILL
KEEP THE THREAT FOR STRONG STORMS NEAR ZERO. FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE
THE PEAK OF THE WARM WEATHER IN THE FORECAST WITH HIGHS PUSHING
INTO THE LOW TO UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.
A DEEPER TROUGH WILL LIFT OUT OF THE WEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A STRONG LOW DEVELOPING OVER CANADA.
THIS WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT WEST INTO TN. WE WILL SEE HIGH CHANCES
FOR RAIN SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH THE EVENING. CAPE WILL BE
MARGINAL AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT PUSHING TO 400-800 J/KG WITH BULK
SHEAR 25-35 KNOTS. THE SET UP ISN'T LOOKING GREAT FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS BUT THERE IS AT LEAST A LOW CHANCE FOR SOME GUSTY
WINDS WITH ANY OF THE STRONGER STORMS ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN.
THE COLD FRONT WILL BECOME A STATIONARY FRONT TO OUR SOUTH ON
MONDAY AND THAT WILL KEEP LOW SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN
THE FORECAST. TROUGHING WILL COME OUT OF THE WEST MID-WEEK AND
WILL BRING ADDITIONAL RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. HIGHS WILL
COOL INTO THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S SUNDAY AND GRADUALLY WARM BACK
TO NEAR 80 BY TUESDAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1144 AM CST WED MAR 4 2026
VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ACROSS MIDDLE TN AIRPORTS
TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH WINDS PREVAILING S TO SW AT 7-12 KTS.
EXPECT PERIODIC GUSTS OF 15-25 KTS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON WITH
LESSENING SURFACE WINDS THIS EVENING. LLWS IS FORECAST OVERNIGHT
BUT MAY REMAIN MORE MARGINAL OVERALL BEFORE BECOMING LESS OF AN
ISSUE BY ~14Z TOMORROW. CKV AND BNA HAVE PROB30 MENTIONS FOR
CONVECTION TOMORROW MORNING AND AFTERNOON. CKV ALSO HAS MENTION OF
TSRA 15-18Z, BUT IT IS ONLY SHRA FOR BNA AT THIS TIME DUE TO
LOWER PROBABILITY OF STORMS. MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED AT CKV DURING
THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON, BUT BELIEVE LOWER CIGS STAY NORTHWEST
OF BNA.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 80 63 79 60 / 10 10 30 0
CLARKSVILLE 79 62 77 60 / 20 30 70 10
CROSSVILLE 73 57 74 56 / 0 0 20 0
COLUMBIA 78 62 79 59 / 10 10 20 0
COOKEVILLE 74 60 76 58 / 0 10 20 0
JAMESTOWN 73 58 75 56 / 0 10 20 0
LAWRENCEBURG 77 60 79 59 / 0 10 10 0
MURFREESBORO 78 63 79 59 / 0 10 20 0
WAVERLY 76 63 76 60 / 20 20 50 10
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...MUELLER
LONG TERM....MUELLER
AVIATION.....SIZEMORE
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