292
FXUS64 KOHX 031133
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
633 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 631 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2026
- DANGEROUS HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH INDEPENDENCE
DAY.
- SCATTERED STORMS COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, TORRENTIAL
DOWNPOURS, AND SMALL HAIL ON FRIDAY.
- THE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK IS NOT AS HOT, BUT VERY WARM AND
HUMID WITH MEDIUM CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1036 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2026
AFTER AN ACTIVE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, MIDDLE TENNESSEE IS QUIET.
CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
ALLOWING FOR PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED RAIN THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FRIDAY WILL BE A RINSE AND REPEAT OF TODAY
WITH THE DANGEROUS HEAT AND SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS.
HEAT INDICES WILL BE IN THE 100-110+ RANGE WITH ACTUAL TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID AND UPPER 90S. BNA TOUCHED 100 DEGREES FOR THE FIRST
TIME OF THE YEAR TODAY AND DEPENDING ON WHEN STORMS DEVELOP, WE
MAY GET CLOSE AGAIN ON FRIDAY. SPEAKING OF STORMS, ACTIVITY WILL
FIRE UP DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON WITH MORE ACTIVITY
CASCADING OFF OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE EVENING UNTIL WE BEGIN TO LOSE THE SUNLIGHT. THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL HAVE PLENTY OF ENERGY DURING THE AFTERNOON TO SUPPORT VERY
TALL UPDRAFTS THAT MAY PRODUCE SOME SMALL HAIL AND ISOLATED
DOWNBURSTS. STORM WILL ONLY DRIFT AND REDEVELOP NEW UPDRAFTS
PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES AS THEY MEANDER. THIS COULD
LEAD TO SOME MINOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.
AS WE GET TO SATURDAY, THE UPPER HIGH WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE EASTWARD.
THIS MEANS TEMPERATURES WILL BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THAN
FRIDAY. WHILE WE WILL TAKE ANY DECREASE IN TEMPERATURE, THE HEAT
WILL REMAIN DANGEROUS WITH HEAT INDICES IN THE 100-110 RANGE.
SCATTERED STORMS WILL DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON LIKE THE PREVIOUS
DAYS, BUT SOME ACTIVITY MAY LINGER A LITTLE LONGER AFTER SUNSET
WHICH ISN'T GREAT NEWS FOR FIREWORKS.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1036 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2026
THE TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY COOL SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
BIG UPPER HIGH IS REPLACED WITH A GENERAL WEAK TROUGHING PATTERN
WITH SOME DISTURBANCES GLANCING THE AREA. HIGHS WILL BE CLOSER TO
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S. EXPECT DAILY MEDIUM
SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THERE DOESN'T APPEAR TO BE ANY ORGANIZED SEVERE THREATS,
BUT LIKE WE'VE SEEN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS, THE STRONGEST STORMS
MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, SMALL HAIL, AND VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 631 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2026
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, SO -TSRA PROB30S REMAIN IN PLACE FOR ALL
TERMINALS. ANOTHER ROUND OF PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT
WITH GREATEST CHANCES BEING ACROSS THE PLATEAU AND ANYWHERE THAT
RECEIVES RAIN TODAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 98 76 95 75 / 50 20 30 40
CLARKSVILLE 96 74 94 75 / 50 10 30 30
CROSSVILLE 93 71 90 69 / 60 10 20 30
COLUMBIA 97 73 94 72 / 50 20 30 40
COOKEVILLE 94 72 91 71 / 50 20 10 40
JAMESTOWN 94 70 91 69 / 40 10 20 40
LAWRENCEBURG 95 73 92 72 / 60 10 30 40
MURFREESBORO 99 74 96 73 / 50 20 20 40
WAVERLY 96 74 94 73 / 50 20 40 30
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TNZ005>010-
023>032-056>064-075-093>095.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR
TNZ005>010-023>032-056>064-075-093>095.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR TNZ011-033-034-065-066-
077>080.
SHORT TERM...REAGAN
LONG TERM....REAGAN
AVIATION.....CAHILL
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