788
FXUS64 KOHX 061120
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
520 AM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 520 AM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
- ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE
60S TO LOW 70S.
- MEDIUM TO HIGH RAIN CHANCES RETURN THURSDAY & FRIDAY. LOW SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT FRIDAY WITH UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING & IMPACTS.
- TEMPERATURES FALL TO NEAR NORMAL THIS WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1031 PM CST MON JAN 5 2026
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BE PASSING TO OUR NORTH ON TUESDAY. THIS
WILL BRING WARM AIR ADVECTION TO THE REGION ALONG WITH SOUTHERLY
WINDS 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH. LOW CLOUDS WILL ALSO
INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND WE WILL SEE MOSTLY CLOUDS SKIES INTO THE
AFTERNOON. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH DURING THE MORNING
AND INTO THE AFTERNOON AND MAY KICK OFF A FEW SPRINKLES OR A LIGHT
SHOWER MAINLY OVER THE PLATEAU. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE
BEHIND THE SURFACE TROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL HELP TO PUSH OUR HIGHS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
SHORT WAVE RIDGE STARTS TO BUILD IN ON WEDNESDAY BRINGING QUIET
WEATHER. HIGHS WILL COOL OFF A FEW DEGREES BUT REMAIN ABOVE
AVERAGE IN THE 60S.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1031 PM CST MON JAN 5 2026
SHORT WAVE RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE WITH A SURFACE HIGH PUSHING OFF
TO OUR EAST FOR THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS WILL BRING
WARM TEMPERATURES WITH THEM RUNNING AS MUCH AS 20 ABOVE AVERAGE.
HIGHS WILL PUSH INTO THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. THE NBM GIVES
NASHVILLE A 45% CHANCE OF AT LEAST TYING IT'S DAILY RECORD HIGH
OF 71 ON THURSDAY.
OUR WEATHER WILL BECOME MORE ACTIVE LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS
DEEP TROUGHING DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTY AND
WE SEE SHORT WAVES PASS TO OUR NORTH. THIS WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT
INTO MIDDLE TN FRIDAY MORNING AS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE
GREAT LAKES. THE FRONT THEN LOOKS TO STALL OUT OVER THE REGION AS
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO THE PLAINS. THE COLD FRONT WILL THEN
PUSH EAST THROUGH THE AREA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
WITH THE DEEP TROUGHING WE WILL SEE PLENTY OF DYNAMICS WITH THIS
SYSTEM AND BULK SHEAR ON FRIDAY WILL PUSH TO 60+ KNOTS BY THE AFTERNOON
WITH 0-1 KM SHEAR 20-30 KNOTS. THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH
HOW MUCH CAPE WE SEE BUILD IN, WITH THE FRONT MOVING IN DURING THE
MORNING WITH RAIN IT MAY BE HARD TO DESTABILIZE. THE NBM DOES
GIVE A 50-70% CHANCE OF SEEING 250 J/KG OF CAPE FROM NASHVILLE
WEST. THIS WOULD BE ENOUGH CAPE FOR AT LEAST SOME GUSTY WINDS WITH
ANY THUNDERSTORMS. PWATS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL PUSH TO
1.10-1.40" WITH DEW POINTS PUSHING INTO THE LOWER 60S. PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IF WE SEE ANY
THUNDERSTORMS. THERE ARE STILL UNCERTAINTIES WITH THIS SYSTEM AND
IT WILL LIKELY CHANGE BUT HIGH CONFIDENCE IN RAIN FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK, LOW CONFIDENCE IN DETAILS ON THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND
EXACT RAIN TOTALS.
MUCH COLDER AIR WILL START TO BUILD IN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS
UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOME NORTHWEST. WE WILL SEE HIGHS GO FROM THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ON FRIDAY INTO THE 40S AND 50S SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH DRY
CONDITIONS AND HIGHS WARMING INTO THE 50S.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 520 AM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO DIP INTO MVFR AND IFR TERRITORY THIS
MORNING, WITH WINDS BEGINNING TO GUST. EXPECT GUSTS UP TO 20
KNOTS OUT OF THE SW, AND CEILINGS TO PERIODICALLY DIP INTO IFR AS
THIS FRONT COMES THROUGH THIS MORNING, BEFORE PLANTING THEMSELVES
IN IFR TERRITORY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. THINGS WILL BEGIN
TO CALM OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING, WITH WINDS SHIFTING
NORTHERLY AND CEILINGS CLEARING OUT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 68 47 65 46 / 10 0 0 0
CLARKSVILLE 66 42 62 45 / 10 0 0 0
CROSSVILLE 59 45 62 43 / 20 0 0 0
COLUMBIA 66 46 65 49 / 10 0 0 0
COOKEVILLE 61 45 61 45 / 20 0 0 0
JAMESTOWN 60 44 60 42 / 30 0 0 0
LAWRENCEBURG 64 46 65 49 / 10 0 0 0
MURFREESBORO 66 45 65 47 / 10 0 0 0
WAVERLY 65 42 62 49 / 0 0 0 10
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...MUELLER
LONG TERM....MUELLER
AVIATION.....HOLLEY
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