985
FXUS64 KOHX 090545
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1245 AM CDT SUN AUG 9 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1239 AM CDT SUN AUG 9 2026
- MEDIUM (40-50%) CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH LOCAL FLASH
FLOODING WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN.
- A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50
MPH AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. THIS COULD BRING DOWN A FEW LIMBS
AND CAUSE SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES. WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS ARE
NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
- HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL REACH THE UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S SUNDAY.
AREAS WEST OF THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU COULD HAVE AFTERNOON HEAT
INDEX VALUES TOPPING 105 AT TIMES NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1037 PM CDT SAT AUG 8 2026
ANOTHER DAY, MORE STORMS. THIS VERY SUMMER-TIME PATTERN CONTINUED
TODAY WITH PRETTY DECENT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS, A COUPLE OF
WHICH LED TO SOME FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING. THE DOWNSIDE IS
WITHOUT THE PASSAGE OF A FRONT TO HELP TIME OUT WHEN STORMS MAY
OCCUR, WE'RE AT THE MERCY OF OUTFLOWS FROM STORMS THAT DEVELOP, FALL
APART AND SPREAD OUT ACROSS THE MID-STATE. THIS MAKES FOR DIFFICULT
FORECASTING. WITH STORMS OVER FOR THE DAY, LOOK FOR QUIET CONDITIONS
FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT AND A FEW PATCHES OF FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT.
AS WE FINISH UP THE WEEKEND TOMORROW, I THINK WE CAN EXPECT AT LEAST
ONE MORE DAY OF CONDITIONS SIMILAR TO WHAT WE'VE SEEN THE LAST 4 OR
5 DAYS -- WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WITH THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP
EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON, THEN SPREAD AROUND THE AREA. ALL OF THESE
STORMS WILL BE OUTFLOW DEPENDENT AS FAR AS WHO SEES THEM, BUT IF YOU
DO SEE THEM, THERE WILL BE THE RISK OF GUSTY WINDS (40-50 MPH) AND
HEAVY RAINFALL THAT COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. PLEASE KEEP THIS
IN MIND IF YOU HAVE OUTDOOR PLANS TOMORROW.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1037 PM CDT SAT AUG 8 2026
THE START OF THE WEEK MAY VERY WELL BRING A SLIGHT CHANGE IN THIS
MONOTONOUS STORM-FILLED PATTERN WE'VE BEEN IN. THE DRIVING FEATURE
INVOLVED IN THIS WILL BE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGES WE'VE BEEN PINCHED
BETWEEN FOR THE LAST WEEK. THIS HAS KEPT THE HOTTER TEMPERATURES AT-
BAY, BUT LED TO MORE STORMS. MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WE COULD
START TO SEE MORE INFLUENCE FROM THE BERMUDA RIDGE RETROGRADING INTO
THE SOUTHEAST US. THIS WOULD MEAN LESS (NOT ZERO) THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE, BUT HOTTER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS. HEAT INDEX VALUES
HAVE BEEN IN THE UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S WHILE WE'VE HAD ALL OF THESE
STORMS. MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS COULD SEE US REACH 105
IN SEVERAL PLACES WEST OF THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU.
AFTER WEDNESDAY, IT'S KIND OF A CRAP-SHOOT. MODELS DIVERGE JUST
ENOUGH TO HAVE FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT SOLUTION DIFFERENCES. GFS IS
LEANING MORE TOWARDS A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WHICH WOULD MEAN MORE
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. THE EURO SAYS MORE
UPPER RIDGING INFLUENCES WHICH WOULD MEAN CONTINUED HOTTER
CONDITIONS AND LESS STORMS. AT THIS POINT, THE NBM HAS NOT CHOSEN
A WINNER, SO WE'LL HAVE TO WORK OUT THE LATE-WEEK DETAILS OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1239 AM CDT SUN AUG 9 2026
PATCHY MVFR TO IFR FOG IS POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS,
ESPECIALLY FOR CKV, CSV, AND SRB WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR
BY AROUND 13Z. THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 91 74 94 75 / 30 30 10 0
CLARKSVILLE 92 73 94 75 / 10 10 0 0
CROSSVILLE 86 68 87 69 / 40 30 40 10
COLUMBIA 91 73 93 73 / 30 30 20 0
COOKEVILLE 87 71 88 72 / 40 30 20 10
JAMESTOWN 87 69 88 70 / 30 10 20 10
LAWRENCEBURG 89 72 91 73 / 40 30 20 0
MURFREESBORO 91 73 94 73 / 40 30 20 10
WAVERLY 90 72 93 73 / 10 10 10 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...UNGER
LONG TERM....UNGER
AVIATION.....CAHILL
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