604
FXUS64 KOHX 311532
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1032 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1019 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2026
- THERE ARE MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TONIGHT
AND TOMORROW, AND WILL LINGER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THERE IS A
MARGINAL (LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5) OR SLIGHT (LEVEL 2 OUT OF 5) RISK OF
SEVERE STORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
- WHILE THE THREAT OF FLOODING REMAINS LOW FOR SATURDAY, IT IS
WORTH KEEPING AN EYE ON THE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
- TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW NORMAL THIS WEEKEND WITH
THE RAIN AND REMAIN COOLER-THAN-NORMAL (WITH LOWER HUMIDITY!)
TO START NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1019 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2026
TODAY IS ABOUT AS GOOD AS WE CAN EXPECT FOR THE END OF JULY.
THIS MORNING WAS COOL AND PLEASANT AND WE'RE ENJOYING LOWER
HUMIDITY TODAY, AS WELL. (THE MORNING PRECIPITABLE WATER WAS JUST
0.85!) UNFORTUNATELY, THE PLEASANT WEATHER WILL NOT LAST. RAIN
AND STORM CHANCES WILL RESUME LATER TONIGHT AND CONTINUE ON
SATURDAY AND LINGER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
IMPACT MIDDLE TENNESSEE ON SATURDAY AS PART OF A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM THAT MORE CLOSELY RESEMBLES A SPRINGTIME WEST-TO-EAST
MOVING FEATURE RATHER THAN THE SLOW-MOVING NORTH-TO-SOUTH SURFACE
BOUNDARIES THAT WE'VE SEEN A GREAT DEAL OF THIS SUMMER.
TOMORROW'S FORECAST SOUNDING FROM THE HRRR DOES SHOW PLENTY OF
INSTABILITY WITH PWAT VALUES RECOVERING QUITE NICELY, ALTHOUGH
WE'RE GOING TO REQUIRE QUITE A LOT OF MOISTURE ADVECTION TO GET
THERE. LIKE SO MANY OF OUR ATMOSPHERIC PROFILES THIS SUMMER,
TOMORROW'S ENVIRONMENT COMES WITH WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES, AND
SOME LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR, BUT NOT AN EXCESSIVE AMOUNT. THUS, THE
PRIMARY RISKS TOMORROW ARE GOING TO BE STRONG TO SEVERE WIND
GUSTS FROM THUNDERSTORMS AND ALSO ISOLATED HEAVY RAINFALL WITH
THE STRONGER CELLS.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1019 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2026
RAIN AND STORM CHANCES WILL LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY AS AN OCCLUDED
FRONT COMES THROUGH THE AREA ALONG WITH AN UPPER TROUGH. BUT THE
RISK OF SEVERE STORMS DEFINITELY DROPS OFF AFTER SATURDAY EVENING.
FORTUNATELY, WE'LL ENJOY SEVERAL DEGREES OF COOLING WITH
SATURDAY'S FROPA, WITH TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL TO START
NEXT WEEK. WE'LL WARM UP TO MORE TYPICAL READINGS TOWARD WEEK'S
END, BUT THERE ARE NO HEAT-RELATED CONCERNS FOR THE FORESEEABLE
FUTURE.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 531 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 09Z SATURDAY.
SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY IMPACT BNA/MQY/CKV PRIOR TO 12Z SATURDAY
SO PROB30 GROUPS WERE INCLUDED. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 5
KTS AFTER 14Z OUT OF THE SOUTH.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 91 75 89 65 / 0 60 70 10
CLARKSVILLE 90 74 87 70 / 0 60 50 20
CROSSVILLE 86 67 82 66 / 0 20 90 80
COLUMBIA 92 73 90 68 / 0 60 60 10
COOKEVILLE 86 69 84 67 / 0 30 90 70
JAMESTOWN 86 68 83 67 / 0 10 80 80
LAWRENCEBURG 90 72 88 68 / 0 60 70 30
MURFREESBORO 91 73 90 69 / 0 50 80 30
WAVERLY 91 73 86 68 / 0 50 40 20
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM....ROSE
AVIATION.....REAGAN
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