451
FXUS64 KOHX 191129
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
629 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 625 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2025
- THE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS HAS ENDED FOR MIDDLE TENNESSEE. EXPECT
WIDESPREAD RAIN OVERNIGHT WITH A FEW EMBEDDED STORMS AS A STRONG
COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE MID STATE.
- SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN QUITE GUSTY OVERNIGHT AND MOST OF THE
DAY TOMORROW AS THEY SHIFT TO THE WNW WITH THE FROPA.
- SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL SETTLE IN FROM SUNDAY
ONWARD.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2025
STORMS HAVE ENTERED MIDDLE TENNESSEE JUST AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT THAT PROMISES A RAINY NIGHT ACROSS THE MID STATE AND
SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. IN THE NEAR TERM, THERE IS
STILL A LOW RISK OF SEVERE STORMS, MAINLY IN AREAS WEST OF I-65.
THE PRIMARY THREAT IS DAMAGING WINDS, AS THERE IS PLENTY OF LOW-
LEVEL WIND SHEAR IN THE PRE-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT. BUT ACCORDING TO
THE MOST RECENT ACARS SOUNDING FOR BNA (VALID AT 0345Z), THE
SBCAPE HAS DWINDLED TO 190 J/KG, AND WE ARE ACTUALLY CAPPED OFF AT
~650 MB. SO WHAT IS LEFT OF THE SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO
DROP OFF AS THIS LINE OF CONVECTION PROGRESSES EASTWARD. BY 12Z,
THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL HAVE REACHED THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU, AND
WILL BE GONE ENTIRELY BY 18Z. WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE ATTENDANT LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL REMAIN LARGELY NORTH
OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE, SO MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SOME
CLEARING DURING THE AFTERNOON, AND CERTAINLY BY NIGHTFALL. BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ON SUNDAY OWING TO A STRONG SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT, BUT WINDS WILL DIMINISH CONSIDERABLY BY SUNDAY
EVENING WHILE TEMPERATURES DROP TO THE LOWEST READINGS SO FAR THIS
AUTUMN. INDEED, EXPECT MONDAY MORNING TEMPERATURES TO BOTTOM OUT
IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S. SO IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME OF THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND USUAL COLD SPOTS WILL SEE SOME FROST FOR THE
FIRST TIME.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2025
A SECOND COLD FRONT LOOKS TO SWEEP ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE ON
TUESDAY THAT WILL REINFORCE THE COOL AIR. AT THIS TIME, IT APPEARS
THAT THIS WILL BE A DRY FROPA. AFTERWARDS, TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN
A SLOW, STEADY CLIMB. IT APPEARS THAT RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN TO
THE MID STATE TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. AT THIS TIME, THE NBM IS
SUGGESTING A MULTI-DAY RAIN EVENT STARTING ON FRIDAY AND LASTING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 629 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2025
RAIN CONTINUES TO AFFECT MIDDLE TN SITES THIS MORNING. SHRA WILL
CONTINUE TO BE A POSSIBILITY AT EASTERN TAF SITES THROUGH THE
MORNING, AND IT'S POSSIBLE SOME COULD DEVELOP BEHIND THE CURRENT
LINE. WINDS WILL INCREASE AND GUST TO 25 KNOTS WITH THE FRONT
PASSING THROUGH. AFTER RAIN CEASES, CEILINGS WILL CLEAR INTO THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 69 44 73 54 / 50 0 0 10
CLARKSVILLE 67 41 73 52 / 50 0 0 10
CROSSVILLE 62 36 64 44 / 90 0 0 0
COLUMBIA 68 41 71 51 / 40 0 0 10
COOKEVILLE 64 39 66 48 / 90 0 0 0
JAMESTOWN 63 38 65 47 / 90 0 0 0
LAWRENCEBURG 67 40 70 49 / 40 0 0 10
MURFREESBORO 68 40 71 51 / 60 0 0 10
WAVERLY 65 42 71 52 / 40 0 0 10
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM....ROSE
AVIATION.....HOLLEY
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