995
FXUS64 KOHX 280052
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
652 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2026
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 625 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2026
- SPRING-LIKE WEEKEND WITH DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS.
- MOSTLY LOW RAIN CHANCES WITH MILD TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT NEXT
WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 625 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2026
A 1016MB SURFACE HIGH IS ANALYZED SMACK OVER NASHVILLE TONIGHT
AND WE ARE ENJOYING COOL AND CLEAR CONDITIONS BECAUSE OF IT.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S OVERNIGHT WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. FOG POTENTIAL LOOKS MUCH LOWER AS DRIER AIR
HAS SETTLED INTO THE AREA. SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT NEAR BODIES OF
WATER WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL AS A FEW SPOTS ALONG THE PLATEAU,
BUT WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT IS NOT ANTICIPATED TONIGHT. SATURDAY'S
FORECAST LOOKS FANTASTIC WITH WARM TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. HIGHS IN THE 70S.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1047 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2026
WITH CLEAR SKIES AND A TEMPERATURE OF 54 DEGREES HERE AT THE OFFICE,
IT IS SHAPING UP TO BE A GORGEOUS FRIDAY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE. EXPECT
THIS PATTERN TO CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND, AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES. TEMPERATURE WISE, WE CAN EXPECT TO GET INTO THE 60S
TODAY: LOW 60S ON THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU TO UPPER 60S NEAR THE
TENNESSEE RIVER. MORE OF THE SAME SATURDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES
WARMING EVEN FURTHER INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. OVERNIGHT LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S. ENJOY THE SPRING-LIKE
SUNSHINE!
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1047 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2026
SUNDAY MORNING, A DRY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION. THE
ONLY WAY YOU'LL BE ABLE TO TELL IT EVEN CAME THROUGH IS THE SHIFT IN
THE WINDS AND THE LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. CLOUDS
WILL REAPPEAR AS THE COLD FRONT STALLS OUT JUST TO OUR SOUTH IN
MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA. AS THIS STATIONARY FRONT WAFFLES BACK AND
FORTH OVER THE MID-SOUTH, WE CAN EXPECT SOME LIGHT RAIN THROUGH MID-
WEEK. WHILE PWATS ARE IN THE 90TH PERCENTILE CLIMATOLOGICALLY, QPF
AMOUNTS ARE NOT AS LARGE AS ONE WOULD EXPECT. THROUGH MID-WEEK,
WE'RE NOT EXPECTING TO EXCEED 0.75" OF PRECIPITATION, WITH A 20-30%
CHANCE FOR EXCEEDING 1" IN THE AREA ALONG AND NORTH OF US-79.
EVERYWHERE ELSE IN THE AREA ONLY HAS A 10-20% CHANCE OF EXCEEDING 1"
OF RAIN NEXT WEEK. YOU MAY HAVE HEARD SOME WHISPERS THAT SOME PLACES
COULD SEE SOME SNOW FLURRIES INSTEAD OF RAINDROPS, AND I AM PLEASED
TO REPORT THAT THE CHANCES OF THAT HAVE DROPPED TO VERY LOW IN
MIDDLE TENNESSEE (<10% CHANCE).
AS FOR TEMPERATURES, SPRING-LIKE TEMPERATURES ARE HERE TO STAY FOR
THE FORECAST PERIOD, GETTING INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S BY MID-WEEK
NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 525 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2026
TAFS ARE VFR WITH LIGHT WIND. HIGH PRESSURE SITS ATOP MIDDLE
TENNESSEE THIS EVENING. THE CURRENT AIR MASS IS SUPER-DRY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 42 73 50 63 / 0 0 0 0
CLARKSVILLE 43 72 47 59 / 0 10 10 0
CROSSVILLE 38 67 47 63 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBIA 40 73 48 67 / 0 0 0 0
COOKEVILLE 39 67 47 62 / 0 0 0 0
JAMESTOWN 38 67 46 60 / 0 0 0 0
LAWRENCEBURG 41 72 47 68 / 0 0 0 0
MURFREESBORO 39 72 47 66 / 0 0 0 0
WAVERLY 43 72 49 62 / 0 0 0 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE.......BAGGETT
SHORT TERM...HOLLEY
LONG TERM....HOLLEY
AVIATION.....ROSE
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