189
FXUS64 KOHX 051052
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
552 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 545 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2026
- SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU
THROUGH THURSDAY.
- SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WHOLE
AREA THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED BUT HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE.
- SEASONAL TEMPERATURES. AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES NEAR 100 BY
THE END OF THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1055 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2026
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SET UP OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE STATE.
THIS HAS LEAD TO SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE PLATEAU. WE WILL SEE THEM DIMINISH OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS AND DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD SET BY 2 AM. SOME PATCHY
FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT MAINLY OVER AREAS THAT SAW RAIN ON
TUESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL GET PHASED INTO THE FLOW AS THE BERMUDA
HIGH PUSHES EAST AND A TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL STILL BRING ENOUGH FORCING TO SEE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE ALONG
THE PLATEAU BUT A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS FAR WEST AS
NASHVILLE. LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN POOR AND THAT OVERALL WILL
LIMIT THUNDERSTORMS BUT CAPE WILL BE A BIT HIGHER AND A FEW MORE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE COMPARED TO THE LAST FEW DAYS. WITH
THE BERMUDA HIGH SET UP FURTHER TO THE EAST WE WILL SEE SHORT
WAVES SPIN AROUND THE RIDGE AS WE HEAD INTO THURSDAY. THIS IS
GOING TO KEEP SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST.
CHANCES WILL ALSO SPREAD FURTHER WEST COVERING MUCH OF THE AREA.
THE BEST CHANCES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. CAPE WILL BE A BIT HIGHER ON THURSDAY BUT LAPSE RATES
AND SHEAR WILL REMAIN POOR, THIS WILL KEEP THE SEVERE THREAT VERY
LOW. HIGHS WILL BE WARMER PUSHING IN TO THE LOW TO MID 90S.
AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE NEAR 100 ON THURSDAY.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1055 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2026
WE WON'T SEE MUCH CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WITH SHORT WAVES CONTINUING TO SPIN AROUND THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE. THIS WILL KEEP A MEDIUM CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENINGS. WE WILL SEE PLENTY OF CAPE BUT
LAPSE RATES AND SHEAR STAY POOR KEEPING THE SEVERE THREAT LOW.
PWATS WILL TICK UP SOME AND HEAVY RAIN WILL BE LIKELY WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS. ON SATURDAY A TROUGH PUSHING INTO THE GREAT LAKES
WILL FLATTEN THE RIDGE SOME AND PUSHING THE BETTER FORCING TO OUR
SOUTH. WE WILL STILL HOLD ONTO A LOW CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. ZONAL FLOW TO WEAK TROUGHING SETS UP NEXT WEEK
BRINGING LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 90S WITH AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX
VALUES NEAR 100.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 545 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD. THERE IS A
LOW CHANCE A SHOWER OR STORM IMPACTS BNA/MQY DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND A MEDIUM CHANCE ONE IMPACTS CSV/SRB. PROB30 WAS INCLUDED AT
CSV/SRB TO ACCOUNT FOR THE HIGHER CHANCES. WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE
DURING THE DAY WITH LIGHT WINDS TURNING TO THE SOUTH AFTER 06/06Z.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 91 72 93 75 / 40 20 10 10
CLARKSVILLE 91 70 93 73 / 10 10 0 20
CROSSVILLE 84 67 84 67 / 50 10 50 10
COLUMBIA 90 71 93 72 / 30 10 10 10
COOKEVILLE 85 69 86 70 / 40 10 40 10
JAMESTOWN 85 68 85 68 / 40 20 40 10
LAWRENCEBURG 88 70 91 71 / 50 10 20 10
MURFREESBORO 91 72 93 73 / 50 10 20 10
WAVERLY 90 70 93 72 / 10 10 0 20
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...MUELLER
LONG TERM....MUELLER
AVIATION.....REAGAN
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page