410
FXUS64 KOHX 310020
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
720 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2026
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 711 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2026
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY WITH
A FEW STRONG STORMS PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
- THERE IS A LOW SEVERE WEATHER THREAT MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING DAMAGING WINDS.
- DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN STARTING TUESDAY WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 711 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2026
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN ACROSS MIDDLE TN THIS
EVENING, BUT ARE DIMINISHING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
BIGGEST THREAT WITH THESE HAS BEEN THE HEAVY RAINFALL. SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH CHANCES INCREASING ONCE
AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE SW WITH ANY CLEARING OF SKY COVER.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1055 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2026
A BAND OF DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS LOCKED IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA WITH
PWATS OF 1.5 TO 1.8 INCHES ACCORDING TO MESOANALYSIS. THIS HAS
RESULTED IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SINCE EARLY THIS
MORNING, AND THESE ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
THERE WILL BE SOME DRIER AIR THAT PUSHES IN FROM THE NORTH, AND
STORM COVERAGE WILL LESSEN THIS EVENING, GIVING US A DRY NIGHT.
THE MOISTURE WON'T BE COMPLETELY SCOURED OUT OF THE AREA THOUGH,
AND WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE, AN ADDITIONAL ROUND OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON. OVERALL, THE
MESSAGE IS THE SAME AS FAR AS POTENTIAL HAZARDS GO. WIND SHEAR IS
WEAK SO THERE IS NO ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. BRIEF STRONG
STORMS MAY STILL DEVELOP WITH WOULD BE CAPABLE OF GUSTY WINDS AND
HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1055 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2026
ONE LAST ACTIVE DAY IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY BEFORE WE FINALLY GET A
BREAK. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE TRACKING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES AREA, SENDING A WEAK FRONT SOUTH AND INCREASING WIND SHEAR.
SPC'S LATEST OUTLOOK FOR MONDAY DOES HIGHLIGHT MIDDLE TN IN A
MARGINAL RISK. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SHOW ABUNDANT INSTABILITY AND
STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SO THERE DOES LOOK TO BE A LOW CHANCE
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE
PRIMARY THREAT BEING DAMAGING WINDS.
DRIER AIR TAKES OVER STARTING TUESDAY, GIVING US DRY AND PLEASANT
DAYS THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM
THROUGH THE WEEK AS AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST US. MODELS STILL SHOW THE RIDGE BREAKING DOWN, ALLOWING
MOISTURE TO RETURN TO THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR AT LEAST LOW
RAIN CHANCES TO THE RETURN TO THE FORECAST AS WE GET INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 647 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2026
TAFS ARE VFR CURRENTLY AND EXPECTED TO REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT. EXCEPTION WILL BE ANY PATCHY FOG THAT DEVELOPS AND
THERE'S LOW-MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FOR THAT AT SRB AND CSV. BNA AND MQY
COULD ALSO SEE LIGHT FOG TOWARD DAY BREAK THANKS TO RAIN THAT
OCCURRED EARLIER. A TEMPO WAS USED AT THESE SITES. OTHERWISE,
TAFS REFLECT ANOTHER AFTERNOON OF SCT CONVECTION WITH LIGHT SE TO
S WINDS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 65 84 66 84 / 10 40 20 70
CLARKSVILLE 63 84 65 83 / 10 10 30 70
CROSSVILLE 58 76 60 78 / 10 50 30 60
COLUMBIA 65 83 65 84 / 20 60 20 70
COOKEVILLE 61 79 62 80 / 10 60 30 60
JAMESTOWN 56 80 61 79 / 0 60 40 50
LAWRENCEBURG 65 81 65 82 / 20 60 20 70
MURFREESBORO 64 83 64 84 / 10 60 20 70
WAVERLY 65 85 67 85 / 20 30 20 70
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE.......CRAVENS
SHORT TERM...CLEMENTS
LONG TERM....CLEMENTS
AVIATION.....SIZEMORE
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page