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FXUS64 KOHX 020440
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1040 PM CST THU JAN 1 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1038 PM CST THU JAN 1 2026
- RAIN SHOWERS RETURN TO THE FORECAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
- BOTH THE 6-10 DAY AND 8-14 DAY OUTLOOKS FAVOR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1038 PM CST THU JAN 1 2026
A SURFACE LOW WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH OF THE STATE TODAY,
BRINGING SHOWERS ACROSS MIDDLE TN THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE LOW BEING TO OUR SOUTH, THERE WONT BE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS AS SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH.
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH WHEN SHOWERS WILL BEGIN ACROSS THE
MID STATE AS THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF DRY AIR ALOFT THAT WILL NEED
TO BE MOISTENED BEFORE RAIN BEGINS TO MAKE IT TO THE SURFACE. IN
GENERAL, DRY CONDITIONS LOOK FAVORABLE THROUGH THE MORNING, BUT
THEN RAIN CHANCES INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING. BY SATURDAY MORNING, SOME LINGERING SHOWERS STICK AROUND
THE PLATEAU BEFORE MOVING ON OUT BY THE AFTERNOON AND LEAVING
BEHIND DRY CONDITIONS.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN MILD WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S. TONIGHT, LOWS
WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER, ONLY DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 30S ACROSS
THE TN/KY BORDER AND THE UPPER 40S ACROSS TN/AL BORDER. POST
FRONT, SATURDAY NIGHT BRINGS COLDER TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1038 PM CST THU JAN 1 2026
A WARMING TEND DEVELOPS FROM SUNDAY ONWARD WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S
AND LOWS IN THE 40S AND 50S. RAIN CHANCES COME BACK INTO THE
FORECAST BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, BUT THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE
REGARDING SPECIFIC TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL WEATHER SYSTEMS AND WHAT
IMPACT THEY MIGHT HAVE. CPC HAS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE NEXT 8 TO 14 DAYS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1034 PM CST THU JAN 1 2026
WILL MAINTAIN LATER RAIN ARRIVAL, BUT MVFR CIGS WILL ARRIVE AROUND
00Z, THEN IFR WILL FOLLOW AS THE ATMOSPHERE MOISTENS. RAINS
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE AFTER 00Z. CSV/SRB CATS SHOULD FALL AFTER THIS
TAF CYCLE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGHOUT, STARTING SOUTHWESTERLY
BUT SWINGING TO THE NORTHEAST TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 39 55 42 52 / 0 40 80 0
CLARKSVILLE 35 49 38 48 / 0 40 40 0
CROSSVILLE 37 54 41 52 / 0 30 80 50
COLUMBIA 40 57 43 54 / 0 70 80 0
COOKEVILLE 36 53 42 52 / 0 40 80 20
JAMESTOWN 35 52 39 50 / 0 30 60 30
LAWRENCEBURG 40 57 44 55 / 0 70 90 0
MURFREESBORO 38 57 43 54 / 0 40 80 10
WAVERLY 39 52 38 49 / 0 60 70 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...CRAVENS
LONG TERM....CRAVENS
AVIATION.....UNGER
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