884
FXUS64 KOHX 160530
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1230 AM CDT SUN AUG 16 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1227 AM CDT SUN AUG 16 2026
- DANGEROUS HEAT IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH TRIPLE DIGIT
HEAT INDICES ACROSS MOST OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE. THIS IS RESULTING
IN MAJOR TO EXTREME RISK FOR HEAT-RELATED ILLNESSES. PLEASE TAKE
THE NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT YOURSELF AND LOVED ONES
FROM THIS OPPRESSIVE HEAT.
- MEDIUM STORM CHANCES ON MONDAY MAY BRING A DAMAGING WIND RISK
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
- EARLY INDICATIONS HAVE THE EXCESSIVE HEAT AND HUMIDITY OUT OF
MIDDLE TN BY NEXT WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1007 PM CDT SAT AUG 15 2026
THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH SUNDAY,
CENTERED NEAR THE ARKLATEX REGION AND SUPPORTING CONTINUED HOT,
DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS MIDDLE TN.
SUNDAY WILL BE ANOTHER OPPRESSIVE DAY. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND LIGHT
WINDS WILL PUSH HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100-102 IN MANY
LOCATIONS WEST OF THE PLATEAU. HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH 105-112 DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE EXTREME HEAT WARNING
REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM SUNDAY, WITH THE HEAT ADVISORY
COVERAGE ALONG THE PLATEAU. IT IS LIKELY THAT A HEADLINE WILL BE
NEEDED FOR MONDAY, BUT HEAT INDICES LOOK MORE IN THE ADVISORY
RANGE. OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY STAYS WARM AND MUGGY WITH LOWS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S UNDER CLEAR SKIES. A FEW ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY
EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING BOUNDARY.
BY MONDAY THE RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN AND SHIFT SOUTHWARD AS A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE NW. HIGHS WILL MODERATE
SLIGHTLY INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S, THOUGH HEAT INDICES MAY STILL
REACH ADVISORY LEVELS IN SOME AREAS. A LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, MAINLY TIED TO THE APPROACHING BOUNDARY AND RESIDUAL
INSTABILITY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MARGINAL MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND BULK WIND SHEAR BETWEEN 15-20 KTS. THIS SHOULD LIMIT ANY
ORGANIZED SEVERE POTENTIAL, BUT ISOLATED STRONGER CELLS CAN'T BE
RULED OUT WHERE DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT. OVERNIGHT
MONDAY LOWS FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1007 PM CDT SAT AUG 15 2026
A BRIEF RESPITE FROM THE EXTREME HEAT IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AS A
FRONT SETTLES SOUTH AND NW FLOW INCREASES ALOFT. HIGHS SHOULD
SETTLE INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S, CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS, WITH
LOWER HUMIDITY AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. OVERNIGHT LOWS DROP INTO
THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.
BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW MAY ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND SOMEWHAT INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S, THOUGH
HEAT INDICES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH AS HIGH AS THE PREVIOUS
WEEKEND. ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE BUT
COVERAGE LOOKS LIMITED.
TOWARD THE END OF THE NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND, GLOBAL MODELS
SHOW BETTER AGREEMENT ON A BROADER TROUGH AMPLIFYING OVER THE
EASTERN U.S. THIS EVOLUTION SHOULD FINALLY PUSH HE RIDGE FARTHER
SW AND OPEN THE DOOR FOR MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES AND A RETURN
TO NEAR NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY NEXT
SUNDAY. CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN THE OVERALL COOLING TREND BUT
REMAINS MODERATE ON EXACT PRECIPITATION TIMING AND AMOUNTS THROUGH
THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1227 AM CDT SUN AUG 16 2026
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MVFR RADIATION FOG DURING THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD AT KCSV AND KSRB, THE TAFS ARE VFR. A SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS
SITUATED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE, AND A CLOSED UPPER
HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR THE ARKLATEX, SO WE HAVE PLENTY OF
SUBSIDENCE TO KEEP THE ACTIVE WEATHER AT BAY FOR ANOTHER DAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 99 78 95 74 / 0 10 10 20
CLARKSVILLE 99 76 93 70 / 0 10 30 10
CROSSVILLE 92 73 90 69 / 0 0 50 20
COLUMBIA 100 78 98 73 / 0 0 40 20
COOKEVILLE 93 74 91 70 / 0 10 50 20
JAMESTOWN 91 73 89 69 / 0 10 50 20
LAWRENCEBURG 97 77 96 72 / 0 0 50 30
MURFREESBORO 100 77 97 72 / 0 0 40 20
WAVERLY 99 77 94 72 / 0 10 10 10
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TNZ005>008-
023>030-056>064-075-093>095.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TNZ009>011-031>034-
065-066-077>080.
SHORT TERM...CRAVENS
LONG TERM....CRAVENS
AVIATION.....ROSE
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