129
FXUS64 KOHX 230504
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1104 PM CST THU JAN 22 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1103 PM CST THU JAN 22 2026
- POWERFUL WINTER STORM WITH SNOW, SLEET, AND FREEZING RAIN WILL
BRING MAJOR TRAVEL IMPACTS THIS WEEKEND. DAMAGING ICE TOTALS ARE
MOST LIKELY IN SOUTHWEST MIDDLE TENNESSE, BUT ALL PEOPLE SHOULD
PREPARE FOR POSSIBLE POWER OUTAGES.
- EXTREME COLD NEXT WEEK WITH LIFE THREATENING CONDITIONS FOR
THOSE WHO LOSE HEAT SOURCES DURING THE WINTER STORM. PERIODS OF
DANGEROUS COLD PERSIST THROUGHOUT NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1050 PM CST THU JAN 22 2026
HOPEFULLY YOU ENJOYED THURSDAY BECAUSE THINGS WILL GO DOWNHILL
QUICKLY FROM THIS POINT. WE WILL SUFFER CHALLENGING WEATHER CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS. THE FIRST CHALLENGE WILL BE THE WELL-
ADVERTISED WINTER STORM THIS WEEKEND, THEN WE WILL DEAL WITH
PROLONGED, DANGEROUSLY COLD CONDITIONS NEXT WEEK.
AS WE START FRIDAY, THICKENING HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE STREAMING
OVERHEAD, INDICATING AN INCREASINGLY ACTIVE SOUTHERN JET STREAM THAT
WILL TRANSPORT DEEP MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. STEPPING OUTSIDE, WE WILL FEEL SEASONABLY CHILLY AIR AT
THE START OF THE DAY, BUT GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL KICK IN, USHERING
IN A FRESH SHOT OF COLD AIR TO HELP THE STAGE FOR THIS WEEKEND'S
STORM. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE 30S DURING
THE DAY, BUT READINGS WILL FALL BACK INTO THE TEENS AND 20S
FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE PRECIPITATION ARRIVES.
WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND
DAYBREAK SATURDAY FOR AREAS WEST OF I-65. INITIALLY, WE EXPECT
SNOW AND SLEET TO PREVAIL. THIS SNOW AND SLEET WILL SPREAD
EASTWARD ACROSS THE MID STATE SATURDAY MORNING WITH AN INCH OR 2
ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE ALONG AND NORTH OF I-40. LOWER SNOW AMOUNTS
WILL ACCUMULATE IN THE SOUTH WHERE THE PRECIP WILL BE MORE OF A
WINTRY MIX. WITH THE COLD TEMPERATURES IN PLACE, TRAVEL CONDITIONS
WILL DETERIORATE VERY QUICKLY SATURDAY MORNING.
MODELS CONTINUE LIFTING A WARM WEDGE OF AIR ALOFT NORTHWARD INTO THE
AREA THROUGH THE DAY. THIS WILL CAUSE THE PRECIPITATION TO CHANGE
FROM MAINLY SNOW EARLY IN THE DAY TO MAINLY SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN
IN THE AFTERNOON WITH ALL RAIN DEVELOPING ALONG OUR FAR SOUTHEAST
SECTIONS. SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION MAY OCCUR IN THE
AFTERNOON IN THE FAR NORTH WITH SOME ICE BUILDUP BEGINNING IN MOST
OTHER AREAS.
MOVING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT, THAT WARM NOSE WILL EXPAND. AREAS
SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM LAWRENCEBURG TO MURFREESBORO TO COOKEVILLE
ARE EXPECTED TO CHANGE OVER FROM SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN TO MOSTLY
LIQUID RAIN AS SURFACE TEMPS CREEP ABOVE FREEZING. NORTHWEST OF
THIS LINE, FREEZING RAIN WILL PREVAIL WITH MAJOR ICE BUILDUP
EXPECTED. SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY WILL BE THE TIME OF
GREATEST RISK FOR TREE DAMAGE AND POWER OUTAGES. OUR SOUTHWEST
COUNTIES UNDER AN ICE STORM WARNING ARE AT GREATEST THREAT FOR
WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES. BUT THE RISK OF SIGNIFICANT TREE DAMAGE
AND OUTAGES SEEMS TO BE INCREASING UP ACROSS NASHVILLE METRO BASED
ON LATEST GUIDANCE. WE ARE BEEFING UP OUR ICE RISK WORDING IN
PRODUCTS AND SOCIAL MEDIA POSTS. THE ICE STORM WARNING MAY NEED TO
BE EXPANDED. REGARDLESS OF FAVORED AREAS, ALL PEOPLE ACROSS THE
MID STATE SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR POSSIBLE POWER OUTAGES.
THE SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY, SCOURING OUT
THE WARM AIR WEDGE ALLOWING FOR THE PRECIPITATION TO CHANGE BACK
TO SNOW AS LOW LEVEL WINDS TURN BACK TO THE NORTHWEST. THIS FINAL
COATING OF SNOW ON SUNDAY MAY BRING ANOTHER COUPLE OF INCHES TO
NORTHERN SECTIONS AND PERHAPS AN INCH DOWN SOUTH. TRAVEL WILL BE
HAZARDOUS AREA-WIDE AND IMPOSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS WITH LAYERS OF
SNOW AND ICE. ALTHOUGH PARTS OF THE PLATEAU REGION AND FAR
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES MAY BE SPARED HAZARDOUS TRAVEL SATURDAY NIGHT,
TRAVEL CONDITIONS IN THESE AREAS WILL DETERIORATE AGAIN ON SUNDAY
AS THE NEXT SHOT OF COLD AIR SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA.
ALL AREAS WILL FEEL THE COLD, AND THOSE WHO LOSE POWER WILL FIND
CONDITIONS INCREASINGLY UNPLEASANT AND DANGEROUS AS TEMPS PLUMMET
SUNDAY EVENING. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR
A LARGE PART OF THE AREA. WIND CHILLS WILL DROP INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS BELOW ZERO.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1050 PM CST THU JAN 22 2026
MODELS SHOW A PERSISTENT FRIGID PATTERN NEXT WEEK WITH A COUPLE
OF REINFORCING SHOTS OF BRUTALLY COLD AIR. MONDAY WILL BRING HIGHS
ONLY IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S. MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE EXTREMELY
DANGEROUS WITH LOWS AROUND ZERO. SOME SPOTS ARE PREDICTED TO FALL
SUB ZERO WITH WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS MINUS 10 DEGREES. IF THESE
FORECAST VALUES CONTINUE, WE WILL NEED TO POST EXTREME COLD
WARNINGS WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THOSE WHO ARE LEFT
WITHOUT POWER FROM THE WEEKEND STORM MAY NEED TO TAKE EXTREME
ACTIONS TO STAY WARM AND SAFE.
MIDWEEK WILL SEE HIGHS IMPROVING SLIGHTLY INTO THE 20S AND 30S,
BUT ANOTHER BLAST OF COLD AIR WILL SEND US BACK DOWN TOWARD ZERO
LATE WEEK. DAYTIME SUNSHINE WILL BE HELPFUL WITH TRAVEL RECOVERY
NEXT WEEK, BUT DEPENDING ON ACCUMULATED SNOW AND ICE AMOUNTS,
UNTREATED BACK ROADS COULD BE A PROBLEM ALL WEEK.
THE MAIN STORY FOR NEXT WEEK WILL BE THE SAFETY OF THOSE WHO HAVE
LOST POWER. IN ADDITION TO INDIVIDUAL PREPAREDNESS, COMMUNITIES
SHOULD PLAN FOR TRANSPORTATION AND SHELTERING AND NEIGHBORS SHOULD
CHECK ON NEIGHBORS, ESPECIALLY VULNERABLE POPULATIONS. WE HOPE
THE STORM AND COLD "UNDERPERFORM", BUT THIS STORM POSES SOME
HUGE, POTENTIALLY DEADLY RISKS. PLEASE TAKE THOSE RISKS SERIOUSLY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1103 PM CST THU JAN 22 2026
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH PASSING MID TO HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS. NORTHERLY WINDS UP TO 6 KNOTS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
NORTHERLY WINDS PICK UP AFTER 15Z AND BECOME BREEZY WITH GUSTS UP TO
24 KNOTS. A MAJOR WINTER STORM IS FORECASTED AFTER THE TAF PERIOD
STARTING SATURDAY MORNING AND WILL BRING SNOW, ICE, AND RAIN TO
MIDDLE TN.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 28 41 18 29 / 0 0 20 100
CLARKSVILLE 25 35 13 23 / 0 0 20 100
CROSSVILLE 28 40 18 31 / 0 0 20 100
COLUMBIA 30 41 18 29 / 0 0 30 100
COOKEVILLE 28 39 18 31 / 0 0 20 100
JAMESTOWN 26 38 15 28 / 0 0 10 100
LAWRENCEBURG 31 42 19 31 / 0 0 30 100
MURFREESBORO 29 43 19 31 / 0 0 20 100
WAVERLY 27 36 14 23 / 0 0 30 100
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT TO 6 PM CST
SUNDAY FOR TNZ005>011-023>034-057-059>066-075-077>080-095.
ICE STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT TO 6 PM CST SUNDAY
FOR TNZ056-058-093-094.
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION.....MUELLER
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