017
FXUS64 KOHX 201726
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1226 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1226 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2026
- MEDIUM TO HIGH RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE EACH DAY THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
- RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2+ INCHES THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH SOME
LOCALIZED HIGH AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. SOME MINOR FLOODING CONCERNS.
- TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1109 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2026
SHOWERS WITH THE OCCASIONAL FLASH OF LIGHTNING HAVE BEEN
CONCENTRATED ALONG BUT MAINLY WEST OF I-65 THIS MORNING. THE COLD
FRONT WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS EAST AND SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT COINCIDING WITH THE DIURNAL CYCLE. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME MODERATE LAPSE RATES ALOFT THIS AFTERNOON WHICH
MAY PROMOTE SOME STRONG DOWNDRAFTS. WITH THAT SAID, THERE IS A
LOW CHANCE OF DAMAGING WINDS WITH ACTIVITY MAINLY ALONG AND EAST
OF I-65 THIS AFTERNOON.
THE PWAT VALUE FROM THE 12Z OHX SOUNDING WAS 1.61" WHICH IS ABOVE
THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR THE DAY. CURRENT MESOANALYSIS SHOWS VALUES
ABOVE 1.7" IN THE NORTHWEST. EXPECT SOME HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THE
ACTIVITY THROUGH THE DAY. AS DRY AS WE'VE BEEN, RIVER AND LARGE
CREEK FLOODING WON'T BE AN ISSUE BUT WITH THE HEAVY RAIN RATES,
THERE COULD BE A COUPLE INSTANCES OF PONDING IN THE TYPICAL LOW
SPOTS. THE 90TH PERCENTILE ON THE HREF KEEPS RAIN AMOUNTS AROUND
3" OR LESS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY SO THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT IS LOW.
CAMS HAVE ACTIVITY CONTINUING OVERNIGHT, BUT NOT AS INTENSE. THE
FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH TO AROUND THE TN/MS/AL BORDER OVERNIGHT
BEFORE MORE ACTIVITY DEVELOPS ON THURSDAY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
FRONT.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1109 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2026
THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE
KICKS THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW LIFTING MORE
SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE AREA. THE RAIN AND STORM CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS THE MOISTURE-RICH
SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW SENDS ADDITIONAL IMPULSES THROUGH THE AREA.
RAINFALL AMOUNT WILL VARY DEPENDING ON WHO GETS THE HEAVIEST STORMS.
RIVER AND LARGE CREEK FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TO NOT BE A BIG
CONCERN, BUT PONDING AND MINOR FLASH FLOODING ASSOCIATED WITH
HEAVY RAIN RATES WILL BE POSSIBLE. WHILE THE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
WON'T BE AS HOT AS THE LAST 3 OR 4 DAYS, THE HUMIDITY LEVEL WILL
BE NOTICEABLE WITH VALUES IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2026
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST
AS A FRONTAL ZONE SETTLES OVER THE AREA. VARIABLE CIG/VSBY
CONDITIONS WILL ACCOMPANY STORMS WITH LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWNPOURS
AND GUSTY WINDS. LOW CONFIDENCE ON SPECIFIC TIMING OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS DUE TO THEIR SCATTERED NATURE. LATER IN THE PERIOD, AFTER
21Z, CONDITIONS WILL TREND DOWNWARD TO IFR CIGS. WINDS WILL BE
GENERALLY LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD. DIRECTIONS WILL BE VARIABLE
BUT MAINLY SOUTHWEST THROUGH 21Z, THEN MAINLY NORTH NORTHWEST.
INTO THURSDAY, SHOWERS WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN AND MAKE CIGS/VSBY
A LITTLE MORE TRICKY. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTH BETWEEN 5-10
KNOTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 63 79 63 82 / 80 50 70 100
CLARKSVILLE 60 77 62 80 / 50 30 50 100
CROSSVILLE 60 76 60 78 / 60 80 60 90
COLUMBIA 62 81 63 81 / 70 60 60 90
COOKEVILLE 62 77 62 80 / 70 70 60 90
JAMESTOWN 60 76 60 80 / 70 80 50 90
LAWRENCEBURG 63 79 64 80 / 70 60 70 90
MURFREESBORO 63 80 63 82 / 80 60 70 90
WAVERLY 61 79 63 80 / 60 40 60 100
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...REAGAN
LONG TERM....REAGAN
AVIATION.....HOLLEY
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