471
FXUS64 KOHX 111145
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
645 AM CDT TUE AUG 11 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 640 AM CDT TUE AUG 11 2026
- HEAT RISK WILL CLIMB TO MAJOR LEVEL (3 OUT OF 4) THIS WEEK. A
HEAT ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE WEST
OF THE PLATEAU STARTING TUESDAY.
- LOW TO MEDIUM (<40%) CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING, BEST CHANCES GENERALLY EAST OF I-65. OVERALL
RISK FOR FLOODING AND SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW, BUT PLEASE REMAIN
WEATHER AWARE TOMORROW AND WEDNESDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1035 PM CDT MON AUG 10 2026
ANOTHER QUIET DAY IS JUST ABOUT IN THE BOOKS. OTHER THAN A FEW
SPRIGS OF REFLECTIVITY ON THE RADAR, NO ONE SAW ANY RAIN TODAY. THIS
IS WELCOMED SIGHT, ALLOWING FOR OUR SOILS TO DO SOME MORE RECOVERING
AFTER LAST WEEK'S WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINS. SOME PATCHY FOG IS
POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT, BUT IT SHOULD BE RELEGATED TO A FEW SPOTS
ON THE PLATEAU AND THAT'S ABOUT IT.
AFTER TWO PRETTY BENIGN DAYS, WE FIND OURSELVES IN AN INTERESTING
POSITION REGARDS TO THIS CURRENT PATTERN. HIGH PRESSURE IS STARTING
TO BUILD INTO THE SOUTHEAST US AND I THINK WE MIGHT FIND OURSELVES
CAUGHT BETWEEN A ROCK AND A HARD PLACE. AS YOU MAY HAVE SEEN, WE
ALREADY HAVE HEAT ADVISORIES POSTED FOR TOMORROW THROUGH THURSDAY SO
FAR (WE CALL THAT FORESHADOWING). THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS EXPECTED
TO PUSH FAR ENOUGH NORTHWARD TO ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TOMORROW TO
BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN TODAY. THIS SHOULD GIVE A GOOD CHUNK OF THE
MID-STATE THE OPPORTUNITY TO SEE HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 105-107. AT
THE SAME TIME, THE RIDGE MAY NOT BUILD FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO SHIELD
US FROM STORM CHANCES TOMORROW AND WEDNESDAY. NOW, I'M NOT
TALKING ABOUT AFTERNOON POP-UP STORMS LIKE WE SAW LAST WEEK. WE'RE
ACTUALLY RIGHT ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
IF YOU'RE NOT FAMILIAR, NW FLOWS ALOFT BRING A LOT OF QUESTIONS
WITH THEM. CAMS ARE SUGGESTING THAT STORMS WILL DEVELOP NORTH OF
US AND TRAVERSE SOUTH/SOUTHEASTWARD INTO PORTIONS OF MIDDLE TN
EACH OF THE NEXT TWO AFTERNOONS. LATE IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING, TOO. THAT MEANS WE SHOULDN'T BE DISTURBED, ALLOWING FOR
THE HEAT ADVISORIES TO VERIFY WITHOUT ANY TROUBLE, BUT ALSO
CRANKING UP THE INSTABILITY FOR ANY STORMS THAT DECIDE TO MAKE
THEIR WAY INTO OUR AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE FULL OF DCAPE EACH
OF THE NEXT TWO DAYS, AS WELL. SO, LET'S MAKE THIS CONDITIONAL ON
WHETHER THE TRACK OF STORMS GET INTO MIDDLE TN. IF THEY DO,
DAMAGING WIND WILL BE A RISK -- ON TOP OF HEAVY RAINFALL. LIKE I
SAID, THE NW FLOW IS GOING TO BE A BEAR TO ACCURATELY FORECAST.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1035 PM CDT MON AUG 10 2026
FOR THE LAST FEW NIGHTS, MODELS WEREN'T QUITE SURE WHAT TO DO WITH
THIS RIDGE. THE PICTURE BECAME A LITTLE CLEARER LAST NIGHT AND I
THINK WE'RE TRACKING RIGHT TOWARDS A DECENT HEAT WAVE BY THE END OF
THE WEEK. FOR THE LAST TWO RUNS, THE NBM HAS INCREASED TEMPERATURES
A DEGREE OR TWO EACH DAY THROUGH SUNDAY, CULMINATING WITH TRIPLE
DIGITS IN SEVERAL SPOTS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. NOW, WHAT I KNOW THAT THE
NBM DOESN'T IS THAT BNA DOESN'T HIT TRIPLE DIGITS VERY OFTEN.
HOWEVER, EVEN 98-99 DEGREES IS GOING TO BE MISERABLE AND EVEN IF
BNA DOESN'T GET THERE, THERE WILL SEVERAL THAT DO. HERE'S THE
KICKER -- NBM PROBS OF SEEING TRIPLE DIGITS ON SATURDAY OR
SUNDAY? 80%. YEAH, IT'S GOING TO BE A MISERABLE WEEK. THE GOOD
NEWS, THE MORE OF THIS RIDGE AXIS WE GET, THE LESS THE
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD BE. I DON'T KNOW IF THAT'S A GLASS
HALF-FULL WAY OF LOOKING AT IT. THIS GUY ALREADY HATES SUMMER. SO,
IF YOU KNOW PEOPLE WHO ARE SENSITIVE TO HEAT, YOU MAY WANT TO
START MAKING PLANS TO KEEP AN EYE ON THEM FOR THE REST OF THIS
WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT TUE AUG 11 2026
PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SRB
AND CSV HAVE THE BEST CHANCE AT SEEING SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS REMAINS LOW AT THIS
TIME. THE REST OF THE CWA SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY PRECIP FREE WITH
SCATTERED DIURNAL CU AND LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 95 76 95 77 / 10 20 10 10
CLARKSVILLE 95 76 95 77 / 0 10 10 10
CROSSVILLE 87 70 88 71 / 30 30 30 20
COLUMBIA 95 75 95 75 / 10 10 10 0
COOKEVILLE 89 72 90 72 / 30 40 30 20
JAMESTOWN 88 71 88 71 / 30 40 30 20
LAWRENCEBURG 92 74 93 74 / 20 10 10 10
MURFREESBORO 95 75 95 75 / 20 20 20 10
WAVERLY 94 75 94 76 / 10 10 10 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR
TNZ005>008-023>030-056>060-062.
SHORT TERM...UNGER
LONG TERM....UNGER
AVIATION.....CAHILL
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