530
FXUS64 KOHX 271721
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1221 PM CDT MON APR 27 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1216 PM CDT MON APR 27 2026
- SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISK THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
WITH ALL HAZARDS POSSIBLE. RISK LEVELS RANGE FROM LEVEL 1 OUT OF
5 ALONG THE PLATEAU TO 3 OUT OF 5 FOR NORTHWEST MIDDLE TN. A FEW
STORMS MAY OCCUR AS EARLY AS THIS AFTERNOON FOR AREAS WEST OF
I-65.
- ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST ACROSS
THE AREA TUESDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN RISKS ARE
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. THE TORNADO RISK IS LOW.
- GOOD DROUGHT RELIEF RAINFALL EXPECTED WITH 2 TO 3 INCHES FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH MIDWEEK. ALTHOUGH SOME LOCAL HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AND STANDING WATER WILL OCCUR, MAJOR FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1145 AM CDT MON APR 27 2026
THE WELL-ADVERTISE STORMY FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK TODAY AS WE
LOOK UPSTREAM TO SEE NUMEROUS SEVERE STORMS ACROSS MO/IL. THOSE
AREAS WILL BE HARDEST HIT WITH A MODERATE SEVERE STORM RISK IN
PLACE AND EXPECTATION OF SEVERAL STRONG TORNADOES. THE STORMS TO
OUR NORTHWEST WILL FORM INTO CLUSTERS AND BANDS AS THEY COME DOWN
OUR WAY. WE EXPECT THE MAIN IMPACTS FROM THESE STORMS TO REACH
MIDDLE TN LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, BUT A FEW CELLS MAY
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE MAIN BATCH. IF THIS HAPPENS, IT WOULD BE
ACROSS OUR WESTERN COUNTIES PERHAPS AS EARLY AS 4 PM.
ALL MODES OF SEVERE WX ARE IN PLAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR
NORTHWEST COUNTIES. AT THE ONSET WE WILL HAVE STRONG DEEP LAYER
SHEAR AROUND 45 KT, CAPE VALUES AROUND 1500-2000 J/KG, STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES, AND GOOD LOW LEVEL SRH, ALL POINTING TOWARD
SUPERCELL POTENTIAL. ALONG WITH DAMAGING WINDS OF 60 TO 70 MPH AND
LARGE HAIL, THERE IS A TORNADO RISK INCLUDING RISK FOR STRONG
(EF2) TORNADOES FOR OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES. THE STORM MODE WILL
BECOME MORE LINEAR AS WE GO THROUGH THE NIGHT, SO DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS WILL BECOME MORE DOMINANT. ALONG WITH THAT, THERE WILL BE
LOCAL HEAVY DOWNPOURS. SOME LOCAL STREET AND LOW-SPOT FLOODING
SHOULD BE EXPECTED, BUT WE ARE NOT SEEING ENOUGH SUSTAINED HEAVY
RAINFALL TO THINK THERE WILL BE MAJOR AREAL OR RIVER FLOODING.
WE MAY GET MORE EXCITEMENT AGAIN TUESDAY, ESPECIALLY LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS A SECOND LOW CENTER RIDES
NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE ARKLATEX ALONG A RESIDUAL BOUNDARY FROM
TONIGHT'S STORMS. THE SCENARIO FOR LATE TUESDAY IS MORE UNCERTAIN.
IT WILL DEPEND ON WHERE THE RESIDUAL BOUNDARY SETS UP AND HOW MUCH
ATMOSPHERIC RECOVERY OCCURS AFTER TONIGHT'S STORMS. AT THIS TIME,
PARAMETERS LOOK FAVORABLE FOR SOME POCKETS OF DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL WITH A VERY LOW TORNADO THREAT.
THE BEST NEWS OUT OF THIS STORMY PATTERN WILL BE SOME MUCH-
WELCOMED RAINFALL TO HELP WITH THE DROUGHT. LATEST FORECASTS SHOW
MUCH OF THE AREA GETTING BETWEEN 2 AND 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL BY
MIDWEEK.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1145 AM CDT MON APR 27 2026
SOME LEFTOVER SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS COOLER AIR STARTS TO FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH. ANOTHER
WAVE MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY
A REINFORCEMENT OF COOLER AIR. NEXT WEEKEND LOOKS DRY AND CHILLY
WITH SOME AREAS HAVING LOWS IN THE 30S (FROST PLATEAU?) AND HIGHS
POSSIBLY LIMITED TO THE 50S AND LOWER 60S.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1216 PM CDT MON APR 27 2026
A VERY ACTIVE TAF PERIOD IS EXPECTED WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, INCLUDING SOME SEVERE STORMS, DURING THE 00Z-12Z
TIME FRAME. CONDITIONS WILL VARY WIDELY DURING THIS TIME WITH SOME
STORMS CONTAINING DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.
UNTIL THEN, VFR WILL PREVAIL WITH GUSTY SOUTH WINDS OVER 25 KT AT
TIMES. AFTER THE STORMS, MAINLY MVFR CIGS WITH LINGERING LIGHT
SHOWERS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 65 83 65 76 / 100 50 90 60
CLARKSVILLE 65 83 63 74 / 100 50 100 40
CROSSVILLE 54 74 59 71 / 90 50 90 100
COLUMBIA 63 82 63 76 / 100 50 100 60
COOKEVILLE 58 77 61 71 / 100 50 90 90
JAMESTOWN 54 77 59 71 / 100 50 90 90
LAWRENCEBURG 63 80 63 76 / 100 50 100 70
MURFREESBORO 62 81 63 76 / 100 50 90 70
WAVERLY 65 82 63 72 / 100 60 90 40
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION.....13
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page