657
FXUS64 KOHX 130407
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1107 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1100 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2026
- UNSETTLE WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND WITH MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. HIGHEST CHANCES WILL BE SATURDAY MID-
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
- LOW CHANCE FOR STRONG STORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND, STRONG WIND
GUSTS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN.
- CONTINUED WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY, THEN
BECOMING COOLER AND LESS HUMID.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2026
WE WILL SEE A QUIET AND HUMID START TO OUR SATURDAY BUT THE
FORECAST WILL BECOME MORE CHALLENGING AND UNCERTAIN AS WE HEAD
INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AN MCS HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE
TX/OK PANHANDLE AND THIS IS WHAT WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON
FOR THE SHORT TERM. THIS MCS WILL MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT LIKELY
FOLLOWING AN INSTABILITY GRADIENT RUNNING FROM NORTHERN OK EAST
THROUGH NORTHERN AR INTO WEST TN. MODELS FAVOR THIS MCS WEAKENING
OVERNIGHT OVER OK AND BECOMING AN MCV. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE BUT
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE THAT IT SUSTAINS ITSELF THROUGH THE NIGHT
REACHING TN LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THE MOST LIKELY
SCENARIO IS WE SEE IT WEAKEN OVERNIGHT BECOMING AN MCV WITH
THUNDERSTORMS RE-DEVELOPING OVER WEST TN DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. THE 00Z HRRR GROWS THESE THUNDERSTORMS UPSCALE RATHER
QUICKLY AND HAS THEM MOVING INTO MIDDLE TN LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING. THE HREF IS LESS EXCITED KEEPING THE ACTIVITY MORE
SCATTERED WHICH SEEMS MORE LIKELY. EITHER WAY THUNDERSTORMS ARE
LOOKING LIKELY TOMORROW MID-AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. BULK SHEAR
WILL BE 20-30 KNOTS AND WE WILL SEE PLENTY OF CAPE. STRONG WIND
GUSTS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN WITH STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
WITH HEAVY RAIN. IF WE SEE THE THUNDERSTORMS OVER WEST TN GROW
UPSCALE, STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE MORE OF A CONCERN, IF
THUNDERSTORMS STAY SCATTERED STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE MORE
ISOLATED. IT WILL BE HOT AGAIN ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS PUSHING INTO
THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S AND DEW POINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOW
TO MID 70S.
UNFORTUNATELY THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN VERY UNCERTAIN AND ACTIVE
AS WE HEAD INTO SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SHORT WAVES WILL BE
SPINNING AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER CANADA. THIS WILL KICK OFF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE PLAINS SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH THEM LIKELY
GROWING UPSCALE INTO AN MCS. SIMILAR TO SATURDAY WE WILL HAVE TO
KEEP AN EYE ON IF THIS MCS HOLDS TOGETHER. THE HREF HAS IT
WEAKENING AS IT APPROACHES OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT. IT WILL LIKELY HOLD TOGETHER ENOUGH TO BRING SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS TO MUCH OF THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING. BULK SHEAR WILL
REMAIN 20-30 KNOTS BUT CAPE SHOULD FALL OFF DURING THE MORNING
HOURS TO KEEP THE SEVERE THREAT ON THE LOW SIDE. IF WE WOULD SEE
ANY STRONG STORMS STRONG WINDS GUSTS WOULD BE THE MAIN CONCERN.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER CANADA ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO MIDDLE TN SUNDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY RE-DEVELOP ALONG THIS COLD FRONT SUNDAY
LATER AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IT'S UNCERTAIN WHERE THIS FRONT SETS
UP BUT IT WILL LIKELY BE SOUTH AND EAST OF NASHVILLE WHEN WE SEE
RE-DEVELOPMENT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL LIKELY SEE
ENOUGH CAPE AND SHEAR FOR A LOW END WIND THREAT. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL
BE IN THE 80S.
THE FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH MIDDLE TN BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND WE WILL
SEE QUIET WEATHER SETTLE IN. COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR WILL START
TO FILTER IN AND WE WILL SEE DEW POINTS GO FROM THE 70S INTO THE
50S.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2026
WE ARE GOING TO SEE A GREAT START TO THE WEEK WITH COOLER AND
DRIER AIR SETTLE IN. HIGHS WILL DROP BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S AND WE WILL SEE DEW POINTS FALL BACK INTO THE 60S TO
POSSIBLE UPPER 50S. THAT WILL BE PRETTY NICE FOR MID JUNE. HIGH
PRESSURE OFF TO OUR WEST SHOULD KEEP US DRY.
MOISTURE WILL START TO BUILD BACK IN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS THE
BERMUDA HIGH STARTS TO BUILD BACK WEST. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL RETURN TO THE FORECAST LATE WEEK AS A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. A COLD FRONT MAY MAKE IT HEAR
FRIDAY/SATURDAY. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL WARM BACK INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 80S AND REMAIN THERE INTO THE END OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 555 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2026
FOG REMAINS THE FOCUS FOR ALL TERMINALS OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY AT
KCSV/KSRB. MVFR FOLLOWED BY IFR/LIFR FOG IS IN THE TAF AT THOSE
TERMINALS, ESPECIALLY FROM 06Z-12Z, WITH MVFR/IFR FOG AT A MEDIUM
CHANCE ELSEWHERE. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD, WITH LOW CHANCES FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
STORMS. AS WE GET INTO THE AFTERNOON, CAMS TRY TO BRING IN A LINE
OF STORMS, SO ADDED PROB30 MENTION FOR KCKV LATE IN THE PERIOD AS
WELL AS AFTER 14/00Z AT BNA. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE AND
TIMING FOR STORMS REMAINS LOW DUE TO THE SPREAD IN MODEL DATA.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 70 91 73 86 / 20 30 70 80
CLARKSVILLE 66 89 72 82 / 10 40 70 60
CROSSVILLE 66 85 68 81 / 20 10 50 90
COLUMBIA 69 90 72 86 / 10 20 60 80
COOKEVILLE 67 87 70 83 / 30 10 70 90
JAMESTOWN 64 87 67 82 / 30 0 60 90
LAWRENCEBURG 69 88 71 85 / 10 30 50 90
MURFREESBORO 69 91 72 87 / 20 20 60 80
WAVERLY 68 89 71 83 / 10 50 70 70
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...MUELLER
LONG TERM....MUELLER
AVIATION.....BARNWELL
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