756
FXUS64 KOHX 101138
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
538 AM CST TUE FEB 10 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 531 AM CST TUE FEB 10 2026
- WARM THROUGH TUESDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND 20 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.
- HIGH CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT.
- HIGH RAIN CHANCES THIS WEEKEND WITH HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1030 PM CST MON FEB 9 2026
MONDAY FELT LIKE EARLY SPRING WITH NASHVILLE REACHING 71 DEGREES,
WHICH WAS ONLY 2 DEGREES FROM THE RECORD. TEMPS WILL BE WARM
AGAIN TUESDAY WITH A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN. WE ARE FORECASTING 73
FOR NASHVILLE. WE WILL LIKELY STAY UNDER THE RECORD OF 76 DEGREES
FROM 1932, BUT OUR FORECAST IS 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL!
WE CONTINUE TO LOOK FOR LIGHT RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
DROPS THROUGH THE AREA. MOST AREAS WILL HAVE LESS THAN ONE QUARTER
INCH OF RAINFALL.
DRY AND COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOWS AROUND 30. PRETTY CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1030 PM CST MON FEB 9 2026
RAIN CHANCES RETURN LATE WEEK AS A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE BRINGS
SCATTERED SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
A MUCH BIGGER, STRONGER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
STATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH RAIN CHANCES ALONG WITH
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MODELS SEEM TO BE
COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN OF A
DEEPENING SURFACE LOW TRACKING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE TN
VALLEY LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. RAINFALL TOTALS AROUND 2
INCHES ARE IN THE LATEST FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND. THESE TOTALS
ARE LIKELY TO CHANGE UP OR DOWN WITH UPDATED MODEL RUNS THROUGH
THE WEEK. GIVEN THE DEPICTED STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM, IT WOULD BE
REASONABLE TO EXPECT SOME LOCALIZED HIGHER TOTALS, ESPECIALLY
WITH THUNDERSTORMS. WE MAY HAVE TEMPORARY LOCAL HYDRO ISSUES LIKE
PONDING ON ROADS AND RISES ON CREEKS, BUT RIGHT NOW WE ARE NOT
SEEING MAJOR HYDRO CONCERNS LIKE RIVER FLOODS. REGARDING
THUNDERSTORMS, RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS ANY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE RISK
WILL BE WELL SOUTH OF OUR AREA, BUT WE WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THAT
ALONG WITH THE HYDRO IMPACTS.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 531 AM CST TUE FEB 10 2026
VFR CONDITIONS DETERIORATE AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING AS LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH MIDDLE TN. CIGS LOWER FROM WEST TO EAST FROM
VFR TO MVFR. IFR CIGS DEVELOP ACROSS THE PLATEAU TONIGHT, AROUND
06Z, BUT RECOVER BACK TO VFR THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. LESS
CONFIDENT ON VIS REDUCTION AS RAIN MOVES THROUGH. LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS LOOK MOST FAVORABLE, BUT THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR SOME
HEAVIER RAIN RATES AT TIMES WHICH WOULD CAUSE A SOME BRIEF PERIODS
OF REDUCED VIS BETWEEN 03-09Z TONIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 73 41 55 31 / 10 80 0 0
CLARKSVILLE 71 37 51 30 / 10 70 0 0
CROSSVILLE 67 41 53 28 / 0 80 0 0
COLUMBIA 71 43 56 31 / 10 80 0 0
COOKEVILLE 67 40 51 28 / 10 90 0 0
JAMESTOWN 67 38 49 25 / 10 80 0 0
LAWRENCEBURG 70 43 56 31 / 10 90 0 0
MURFREESBORO 72 43 55 31 / 10 90 0 0
WAVERLY 70 39 53 31 / 10 80 0 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION.....CRAVENS
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