369
FXUS64 KOHX 101125
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
625 AM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 625 AM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY.
- SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OUT OF 5) FOR SEVERE STORMS AREA-WIDE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN
HAZARD.
- COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS LATE WEEK THEN WARMING BACK UP FOR
THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 943 PM CDT MON MAR 9 2026
A WARM, MOIST AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE ACROSS MIDDLE TN
TODAY AS WE REMAIN UNDER A BROAD WARM SECTOR. HIGHS WILL CLIMB
INTO THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 WITH DEW POINTS RISING INTO THE
60S. MINOR SHORTWAVE IMPULSES RIDE MOVING THROUGH WILL SPARK
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS (PARTICULARLY ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF MIDDLE TN. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT REMAINS
LOW BUT NOT ZERO; ANY STORMS THAT FORM WILL LIKELY BE DISORGANIZED
AND PRIMARILY CAPABLE OF BRIEF HEAVY RAIN OR ISOLATED GUSTY
WINDS. MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD STAY DRY OVERALL, WITH MILD OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE 60S.
THE SEVERE THREAT RAMPS UP SIGNIFICANTLY ON WEDNESDAY AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. HIGHS WILL AGAIN REACH THE UPPER
70S TO AROUND 80 AHEAD OF THE FRONT BEFORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO ORGANIZE INTO A QLCS
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING, WITH THE HIGHEST
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY FROM ROUGHLY 4 PM TO MIDNIGHT AS THE FRONT
SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION. THE PRIMARY HAZARD WILL BE DAMAGING
STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS, ESPECIALLY WITH EMBEDDED BOWING SEGMENTS IN
THE LINE. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE, AND WHILE THE
TORNADO THREAT IS LOW OVERALL, WE COULD GET ONE DEVELOP IF ANY
DISCRETE SUPERCELLS DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE OR ANY
MESOVORTICES FORM ALONG LINE. HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO A CONCERN AND
COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING IN URBAN AREAS OR AREAS WITH
POOR DRAINAGES. GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY EVEN OUTSIDE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. THE THREAT WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT
WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT PUSHES EAST,
WITH LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE INTO THE EVENING. A SHARP COOLDOWN
WILL FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
STAY TUNED FOR ADDITIONAL UPDATES ON WEDNESDAY'S SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT AS WE CONTINUE TO FINE TUNE EXACT TIMING AND POTENTIAL
STORM INTENSITY AS LATER MODEL RUNS AND OBSERVATIONS BECOME
AVAILABLE.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 943 PM CDT MON MAR 9 2026
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, A NOTICEABLE COOLDOWN AND MUCH DRIER
CONDITIONS. HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE MID 50S UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES WITH BREEZY NW WINDS. THIS COOLER AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS
WILL KEEP CONDITIONS QUIET AND SEASONABLE INTO FRIDAY, WITH HIGHS
REBOUNDING SLIGHTLY INTO THE UPPER 60S.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE FURTHER OVER THE
WEEKEND. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID 70S ON SATURDAY WITH DRY
CONDITIONS. SUNDAY, WILL TURN EVEN WARMER (UPPER 70S) AHEAD OF THE
NEXT COLD FRONT. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY, WITH A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING LATE SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. THE SEVERE THREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM REMAINS LOW AT
THIS TIME. EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS, FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER COOLDOWN WITH HIGHS DROPPING BACK
INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S ON MONDAY.
OVERALL, THE EXTENDED PERIOD FEATURES A COUPLE OF WEEK FRONTAL
PASSAGES KEEPING THE WEATHER ACTIVE BUT WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT SEVERE
THREATS AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL FLUCTUATE NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS AFTER MID-WEEK COOLDOWN, WITH
PERIODIC RAIN CHANCES BUT MOSTLY DRY AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS
DOMINATE THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
SHRA AND POSSIBLY OCCASIONAL TSRA WILL END AROUND 18Z IN THE AREA,
WITH LOW CEILINGS CONTINUING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. INTO
THE EVENING, CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT TEMPORARILY UNTIL THE NEXT
WEATHER MAKER ENTERS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
REMAIN OUT OF THE SW AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 18 KNOTS
POSSIBLE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 80 67 80 42 / 50 40 100 100
CLARKSVILLE 80 67 78 39 / 40 50 100 90
CROSSVILLE 74 63 76 37 / 80 30 80 100
COLUMBIA 80 66 79 39 / 40 30 100 100
COOKEVILLE 74 65 77 39 / 80 40 90 100
JAMESTOWN 74 64 77 37 / 70 40 90 100
LAWRENCEBURG 79 65 79 40 / 40 30 90 100
MURFREESBORO 80 67 79 40 / 50 30 100 100
WAVERLY 79 67 77 39 / 40 40 100 90
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...CRAVENS
LONG TERM....CRAVENS
AVIATION.....HOLLEY
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