734
FXUS64 KOHX 022334
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
634 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2026
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 627 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2026
- DANGEROUS HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH INDEPENDENCE
DAY.
- SCATTERED STORMS COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, TORRENTIAL
DOWNPOURS, AND SMALL HAIL ON FRIDAY.
- THE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK IS NOT AS HOT, BUT VERY WARM AND
HUMID WITH MEDIUM CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 627 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2026
IT'S BEEN AN ACTIVE AFTERNOON ON RADAR ALONG AND WEST OF I-65.
ACTIVITY IS SLOWLY TRENDING DOWNWARD WITH ALL ACTIVITY EXPECTED
TO BE DONE BY 8:00-9:00 PM. WINDS WILL BE CALM OVERNIGHT ALONG
WITH CLEARING SKIES. THERE IS AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE
AREAS THAT RECEIVED RAIN THIS AFTERNOON, SO PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT
IS EXPECTED. FRIDAY WILL BE HOT AGAIN WITH TEMPERATURES TOPPING
OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S BEFORE STORMS DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON. LIKE TODAY, EXPECT ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WITH
DOWNBURSTS, LOTS OF LIGHTNING, AND HEAVY RAINFALL. THE ACTIVITY
WILL DECREASE AFTER SUNSET.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1145 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2026
HEAT HEADLINES WERE EXTENDED THROUGH INDEPENDENCE DAY. NWS
HEAT RISK LEVELS ARE EXTREME TODAY AND FRIDAY WITH SLIGHT
IMPROVEMENT TO BORDERLINE MAJOR/EXTREME SATURDAY AS THE STRONG
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN. THE DANGER TO HEALTH WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH FIREWORKS TIME, SO PLEASE CONTINUE TO TAKE
APPROPRIATE PRECAUTIONS THROUGH THE HOLIDAY.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING WITH MORE COVERAGE THAN YESTERDAY. TODAY'S SEVERE
OUTLOOK INCLUDES A LEVEL 2 OUT OF 5 RISK AREA-WIDE. THIS WILL BE
A VERY "CONDITIONAL" DAY, MEANING MOST AREAS WILL NOT HAVE STORMS,
BUT THOSE WHO DO HAVE STORMS COULD GET WALLOPED WITH DAMAGING
DOWNBURST WINDS, TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS, AND POSSIBLY HAIL. THE
LATEST CAMS SUGGEST MOST ACTION WILL OCCUR ALONG AND WEST OF
I-65, INCLUDING NASHVILLE METRO. THIS AREAL FORECAST IS SUPPORTED
BY LOCATION OF AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE OVERHEAD, NOTED IN THE
400-250MB POTENTIAL VORTICITY FIELD. SOUNDING PARAMETERS ARE
IMPRESSIVE AND GREATER THAN YESTERDAY WITH UP TO 5000 SB CAPE,
1400 DCAPE, STEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES, AND 1.75"
PRECIPITABLE WATER. TIMING OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN STORMS WILL BE
MOSTLY BETWEEN 2 PM AND 8 PM. BRIEF, LOCAL FLASH FLOODING WILL
ALSO BE A CONCERN WITH RAINFALL RATES POTENTIALLY 1 TO 2 INCHES
PER HOUR. STORMS SHOULD DIE OFF QUICKLY IN THE EVENING, MOSTLY BY
9 PM CDT. OVERNIGHT, PATCHY FOG WILL OCCUR IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE
RAIN. OTHERWISE, THE OVERNIGHT WILL BE QUITE MUGGY.
FRIDAY WILL BE ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY WITH SCATTERED STORMS.
HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN PEAK MOSTLY IN THE 105-100
RANGE. SEVERE STORM PARAMETERS DO NOT LOOK AS IMPRESSIVE FOR
FRIDAY, BUT WE MAY STILL SEE A FEW CELLS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND
TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS.
THE SAME DIURNAL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY EVENING WITH
SCATTERED STORMS ENDING EARLY EVENING THEN MUGGY, UNCOMFORTABLE
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT.
SATURDAY (INDEPENDENCE DAY) WILL BRING A VERY SLIGHT DROP IN
TEMPERATURES AND HEAT INDEX VALUES AS THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO
BREAK DOWN. BUT, IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE DANGEROUSLY HOT UNTIL
SUNSET. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP IN THE HEAT OF
THE DAY AND COULD IMPACT FIREWORKS AND OTHER OUTDOOR EVENTS.
WE ARE NOT UNDER A SEVERE STORM OUTLOOK AT THIS TIME, BUT THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A FEW TYPICAL STRONG SUMMER
AFTERNOON STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND DOWNPOURS.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1145 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2026
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AND DRIFT EASTWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL GET US INTO A LITTLE MORE ACTIVE PATTERN WITH A SERIES
OF WEAK DISTURBANCES CROSSING THE REGION. IT WILL STILL BE
SUMMER-TIME WITH HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS, BUT TEMPERATURES WILL
BE CLOSER TO NORMAL THROUGHOUT NEXT WEEK. HIGHS WILL BE MOSTLY IN
THE LOWER 90S. THERE WILL BE MEDIUM (40 TO 50 PERCENT) CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY WITH MOSTLY DIURNAL ACTIVITY PEAKING
IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT INDICATIONS FOR
SEVERE WX NEXT WEEK, BUT A FEW STORMS COULD BRING GUSTY WINDS AND
HEAVY DOWNPOURS EACH DAY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 600 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2026
TSRA REMAINS NEAR CKV FOR ABOUT ANOTHER HOUR. ALL OTHER TERMINALS
ARE NOW CLEAR. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT, MOSTLY
CALM. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT AS WELL,
PARTICULARLY NEAR CKV DUE TO ALL THE HEAVY RAIN THAT JUST FELL.
TOMORROW WILL BE ANOTHER HOT SUMMER DAY WITH PROB30S IN PLACE AT
ALL TERMINALS FOR ISO/SCT TS ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 78 98 77 96 / 20 50 20 30
CLARKSVILLE 77 96 75 95 / 10 30 20 40
CROSSVILLE 73 94 71 91 / 0 50 10 30
COLUMBIA 75 97 73 96 / 10 50 10 30
COOKEVILLE 74 94 72 92 / 10 40 20 30
JAMESTOWN 72 94 71 92 / 0 30 30 30
LAWRENCEBURG 75 95 73 93 / 10 50 10 30
MURFREESBORO 76 99 75 97 / 10 50 20 30
WAVERLY 76 96 74 95 / 0 40 20 40
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR TNZ005>010-
023>032-056>064-075-093>095.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM FRIDAY TO 8 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR
TNZ005>010-023>032-056>064-075-093>095.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR TNZ011-033-034-065-066-
077>080.
UPDATE.......REAGAN
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION.....SIZEMORE
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page