738
FXUS64 KOHX 230534
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1234 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1225 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2026
- MEDIUM TO HIGH RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE EACH DAY THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
- RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2-4 INCHES THROUGH NEXT WEEK, WITH A MEDIUM
CHANCE OF AMOUNTS GREATER THAN 4 INCHES IN SOME AREAS. LOCALIZED
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.
- THE THREAT FOR STRONG STORMS IS VERY LOW.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2026
WE ARE GOING TO REMAIN IN AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN FOR MUCH OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL LIFT TO OUR NORTH
EARLY SATURDAY WITH A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING TO OUR NORTH. AS THE
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS WE WILL SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE ALONG A BOUNDARY THAT WILL SLOWLY WORK
EAST THROUGH MIDDLE TN SATURDAY. THE ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN TO PICK
UP AROUND DAYBREAK IN THE NASHVILLE AREA AND PUSH EAST AS WE HEAD
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING. AFTERNOON CAPE
WILL PUSH ABOVE 1000 J/KG BUT BULK SHEAR WILL BE LACKING STAYING
UNDER 20 KNOTS. GIVEN THAT, THE THREAT FOR STRONG STORMS IS VERY
LOW. PWATS WILL REMAIN VERY HIGH AT AROUND 1.50", THIS WILL BRING
A HIGH CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAIN WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS. THE OVERALL
FLOODING RISK WILL BE LOW BUT CAN'T RULE OUT LOCALIZED FLOODING IF
YOU GET CAUGHT UNDER A THUNDERSTORM. HIGHS WILL PUSH INTO THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AND IT WILL REMAIN HUMID WITH DEW POINTS
PUSHING TO AROUND 70.
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL SET IN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S. THE DRY WEATHER WILL BE SHORT LIVED. A SHORT
WAVE WILL START TO LIFT OUT OF TX, THIS WILL BRING INCREASING
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR SUNDAY. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL
BE VERY SIMILAR TO SATURDAY, A HIGH CAPE LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT.
THIS WILL KEEP THE CHANCE FOR STRONG STORMS VERY LOW. HEAVY RAIN
WILL CONTINUE TO BE A HIGH THREAT WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS AS PWATS
STAY ABOVE 1.50".
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2026
UNSETTLE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH A MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCE FOR
RAIN THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SET UP TO OUR
SOUTHWEST OVER TX WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO OUR EAST. THIS WILL
KEEP THE MOISTURE FLOW STRONG WITH DEW POINTS STAYING IN THE 60S
TO AROUND 70. SHORT WAVES WILL SPIN OFF OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
BRINGING PERIODS OF HIGHER RAIN CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. BULK
SHEAR WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGHOUT THE WEEK, GENERALLY AROUND 15
KNOTS AND MAYBE UP TO 20 KNOTS ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP THE
SEVERE THREAT VERY LOW. GIVEN THE FLOW OF MOISTURE OUR PWATS WILL
REMAIN VERY HIGH, 1.50"+. HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT
WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS. THE FLOODING THREAT WILL OVERALL REMAIN
LOW THOUGH BUT SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS. RAIN TOTALS SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY ARE LOOKING TO
BE 2-4" ACROSS THE AREA BUT SOME AREAS COULD SEE HIGHER AMOUNTS IF
YOU GET CAUGHT UNDER MULTIPLE THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
MID 70S TO MID 80S.
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING INTO THE GREAT LAKES LATE NEXT WEEK INTO
NEXT WEEKEND MAY BRING SOME CHANGES TO OUR PATTERN NEXT WEEKEND.
WE MAY SEE SOME DRIER AIR BUILD IN AND START TO SEE SOME INFLUENCE
FROM HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH DRYING THINGS OUT.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2026
THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE MOVED EAST, THOUGH THERE
IS A LINGERING BOUNDARY OVER MIDDLE TN THAT MAY ACT AS A TRIGGER
FOR ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY NEAR 12Z. PROB30 GROUPS HAVE BEEN INCLUDED
FOR THIS. A LOW CLOUD DECK WITH CIGS VARYING FROM LOW MVFR TO LIFR
WILL PUSH IN FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT, EVENTUALLY OVERSPREADING ALL
TERMINALS. LOW CIGS WILL HANG AROUND THROUGH MOST OF THE MORNING
WITH A RETURN TO VFR AFTER 18Z. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND
10 KTS OVERNIGHT, SHIFTING SOUTHWESTERLY LATER THIS MORNING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 81 63 84 65 / 60 20 50 60
CLARKSVILLE 80 62 83 65 / 30 20 60 50
CROSSVILLE 75 60 79 61 / 90 60 60 60
COLUMBIA 81 62 84 64 / 60 20 50 60
COOKEVILLE 77 61 81 63 / 80 50 60 60
JAMESTOWN 77 59 81 60 / 90 60 60 50
LAWRENCEBURG 79 62 82 64 / 80 30 50 70
MURFREESBORO 81 62 84 64 / 70 30 50 70
WAVERLY 81 63 84 65 / 30 30 50 60
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...MUELLER
LONG TERM....MUELLER
AVIATION.....BAGGETT
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