471  
FXUS64 KOHX 150147  
AFDOHX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN  
847 PM CDT SUN APR 14 2024  
   
..NEW UPDATE
 
 
   
UPDATE
 
 
ISSUED AT 832 PM CDT SUN APR 14 2024  
 
WE ARE WRAPPING UP A BEAUTIFUL WEEKEND WITH CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE  
AREA WITH TEMPERATURES STILL IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. THE  
WINDS HAVE DECREASED AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO OVER THE NEXT  
COUPLE OF HOURS. THEY WILL NOT GO COMPLETELY CALM BUT REMAIN  
AROUND 5 MPH OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE MID 50S ON THE  
PLATEAU AND LOW 60S WEST OF THE PLATEAU. THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
 
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)  
ISSUED AT 1156 AM CDT SUN APR 14 2024  
 
VERY WARM DAY ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE WITH CURRENT TEMPERATURES  
IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S THANKS TO VERY GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS UP  
TO NEARLY 40 MPH AT TIMES. WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON,  
HIGHS SHOULD EASILY REACH THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. DEWPOINTS  
HAVE MIXED OUT INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST  
HALF, WHICH IS LEADING TO MARGINAL FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS WITH THE  
COMBINATION OF LOW RH AND GUSTY WINDS. HOWEVER, OUR RECENT  
RAINFALL SHOULD HELP MITIGATE THIS THREAT. RADAR IS ALSO SHOWING  
SOME ECHOES ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES IN ASSOCIATION WITH  
SOME HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE, BUT NONE OF THIS IS ANTICIPATED TO  
REACH THE GROUND.  
 
CONTINUED WARM AND DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED INTO TOMORROW THANKS  
TO A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO NORTHWARD TO THE  
OHIO VALLEY, ALONG WITH A PERSISTANT SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY  
30-35KT LLJ. LOWS TONIGHT WILL ONLY DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S TO  
LOW 60S, WITH HIGHS TOMORROW ONCE AGAIN IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID  
80S. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TO  
DEVELOP ACROSS KENTUCKY ON MONDAY AFTERNOON ALONG A SOUTHWARD  
SAGGING COLD FRONT, BUT ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO STAY  
TO OUR NORTH.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM
 
 
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)  
ISSUED AT 1156 AM CDT SUN APR 14 2024  
 
CONTINUED WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY  
BEFORE AN INTENSE UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED 90-100KT H5 JET MOVES  
OUT OF THE PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP TO OUR WEST ON TUESDAY  
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT, BUT WEAKEN AS THEY ENTER MIDDLE TENNESSEE  
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THEY OUTRUN THE MORE FAVORABLE  
INSTABILITY TO OUR WEST AND THE MAIN UPPER JET DYNAMICS TO OUR  
NORTH. IN THE WAKE OF THE MORNING ACTIVITY, ADDITIONAL SCATTERED  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR LIKELY TO DEVELOP ALONG A WEAK  
COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE MIDSTATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO  
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES ON HOW STRONG OR  
WIDESPREAD THIS ACTIVITY MAY GET AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WEAKENS  
WHILE MOVING EVEN FURTHER NORTHWARD AWAY FROM US, TAKING THE MAIN  
UPPER FORCING WITH IT. NEVERTHELESS, FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE  
TO SHOW QUITE FAVORABLE PARAMETERS FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE  
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST  
HALF, SO WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS POTENTIAL.  
 
COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH OF THE MIDSTATE ON THURSDAY WITH  
DRY AND SLIGHTER COOLER CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED. GUIDANCE HAS  
SHIFTED TO A SLOWER, WARMER AND MUCH WETTER PATTERN FOR THE END  
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, AS THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT SHIFTS BACK  
NORTHWARD THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, THEN OOZES BACK SOUTHWARD  
OVER THE WEEKEND WHILE SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS PASS OVERHEAD.  
THIS OVERRUNNING-TYPE SETUP AS SHOWN ON 12Z GUIDANCE WOULD BRING  
US SEVERAL WAVES OF HARD-TO-TIME RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM  
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. FOR NOW HAVE KEPT POPS ON THE LOW SIDE AND  
TEMPS NEAR THE NBM DUE TO THIS WARMER AND WETTER TREND, BUT  
FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS TO THE LONG RANGE FORECAST ARE LIKELY.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
(00Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 612 PM CDT SUN APR 14 2024  
 
TAFS ARE VFR. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR THE GULF COAST IS THE  
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE INFLUENCING MIDDLE TENNESSEE'S WEATHER  
THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE, A WARM FRONT HAS DEVELOPED NORTH OF THE  
OHIO VALLEY, SO WE FIND OURSELVES WEDGED BETWEEN WITH A STRONG  
PRESSURE GRADIENT PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS, BUT WIND SPEEDS WILL  
RELAX SOMEWHAT BY TOMORROW.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
NASHVILLE 61 84 63 83 / 0 0 10 10  
CLARKSVILLE 62 82 63 81 / 0 10 10 10  
CROSSVILLE 56 78 58 78 / 0 0 10 10  
COLUMBIA 59 83 62 81 / 0 0 10 10  
COOKEVILLE 57 78 61 79 / 0 10 10 10  
JAMESTOWN 57 78 58 78 / 0 10 10 10  
LAWRENCEBURG 58 82 62 80 / 0 0 10 10  
MURFREESBORO 59 84 62 82 / 0 0 10 10  
WAVERLY 61 82 64 80 / 0 0 10 10  
 

 
   
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  

 
 

 
 
UPDATE.......REAGAN  
SHORT TERM...SHAMBURGER  
LONG TERM....SHAMBURGER  
AVIATION.....ROSE  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab TN Page Main Text Page