340
FXUS64 KOHX 020445
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1045 PM CST THU DEC 1 2022
..NEW AVIATION
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 610 PM CST THU DEC 1 2022
LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED
QUICKLY THIS EVENING INTO THE 30S DUE TO THE VERY DRY AIRMASS IN
PLACE, AS DEWPOINTS ARE ONLY IN THE 10S/20S. IN FACT, A FEW
LOCATIONS HAVE ALREADY DROPPED BELOW THEIR FORECAST LOWS FOR
TONIGHT, SO HAD TO LOWER MIN TEMPS ACROSS THE BOARD. HOWEVER,
LOWS WILL OCCUR IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS A 30 KT LLJ IS
FORECAST TO KICK INTO GEAR LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT,
WHICH WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS TO RISE THROUGH THE
NIGHT. REST OF FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 217 PM CST THU DEC 1 2022
SURFACE HIGH LOCATED OVER KY THIS AFTERNOON WITH DRY, TRANQUIL AND
COOL WEATHER IN PLACE. ZONAL PATTERN EXISTS IN THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS SO WEATHER FEATURES WILL MOVE QUICKLY WEST TO EAST OVER THE
SHORT TERM. WITH THAT SAID, THE NEXT FROPA IS EXPECTED SATURDAY
MORNING. PRIOR TO THAT TIME, SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL COMMENCE DURING
THE DAY ON FRIDAY AND BECOME WIDESPREAD FRIDAY NIGHT. LOOKS LIKE
RAINFALL TOTALS WILL AVERAGE BETWEEN ONE QUARTER AND ONE HALF INCH.
RAINFALL WILL END DURING THE DAY BUT CLOUDS WILL REMAIN AS PLENTY OF
MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESIDE.
FOR THE NEAR TERM TEMPS, CHILLY AGAIN TONIGHT BUT WE WILL SEE A
STRONG WARMUP FOR FRIDAY AS WINDS QUICKLY TURN SOUTHERLY. LOOKS
LIKE UPPER 50S FOR HIGHS. TEMPS WILL LEVEL OFF IN THE UPPER 40S AND
LOWER 50S FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AS STRONG WAA CONTINUES. IT WILL TURN
COLDER BEHIND THE SATURDAY MORNING FROPA WITH TEMPS FALLING
INTO THE 40S.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 217 PM CST THU DEC 1 2022
IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST, SPLIT FLOW UPCOMING AS A STRONG UPPER LOW
MOVES TOWARD THE PACIFIC COAST. SUBTROPICAL JET WILL BECOME QUITE
ACTIVE OVER THE DURATION OF THE EXTENDED. A WARM FRONT PRECURSOR
AND THEN A STRONGER WARM FRONT WILL MOVE OUR WAY SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. BOUNDARIES WILL BE ORIENTED PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW WITH
STRONG ASSOCIATED LIFTING. MODELS HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING THE
POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING FOR OUR AREA FOR MANY PRIOR MODEL RUNS.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2"-4" FROM SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY LOOKS
POSSIBLE. THE PRIMARY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
THE PRECIP ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER WILL
BE IN PLACE ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
FOR THE EXTENDED TEMPERATURES, COLD ON SUNDAY BUT WARMING UP QUICKLY
WITH THE WARM FRONT WORKING NORTHWARD. RISING TEMPS ARE POSSIBLE
MONDAY NIGHT WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S FOR TUESDAY. IT WILL COOL DOWN
CLOSER TO NORMAL AFTER THE WEDNESDAY FROPA.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1030 PM CST THU DEC 1 2022
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE TONIGHT IN ADVANCE
OF OUR NEXT STORM SYSTEM. SOME VERY LIGHT SPRINKLES AND/OR SNOW
FLURRIES ARE BEGINNING TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST AT THIS HOUR,
HOWEVER, THEY WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND WON'T HAVE AN IMPACT TONIGHT.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING,
AND THEN RAIN SHOWERS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE BY LATE AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE WEST AND THEN EXPAND EASTWARD AFTER 00Z.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 35 59 49 59 / 10 40 100 40
CLARKSVILLE 33 59 45 52 / 10 40 90 20
CROSSVILLE 30 55 45 58 / 10 20 80 60
COLUMBIA 32 59 49 61 / 10 40 90 40
COOKEVILLE 32 58 48 58 / 10 20 90 60
JAMESTOWN 30 57 46 58 / 10 20 90 50
LAWRENCEBURG 32 59 49 61 / 10 30 90 50
MURFREESBORO 32 59 49 60 / 10 30 90 50
WAVERLY 33 59 46 55 / 10 40 100 30
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE.......SHAMBURGER
SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....21
AVIATION.....CLEMENTS
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