766
FXUS64 KOHX 041127 AAB
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
627 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 503 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2026
- DANGEROUS HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH INDEPENDENCE
DAY.
- SCATTERED STORMS COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS,
TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS, AND SMALL HAIL DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING SATURDAY.
- THE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK IS NOT AS HOT, BUT VERY WARM AND
HUMID WITH MEDIUM CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1031 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2026
IT WAS ANOTHER ACTIVE AFTERNOON WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS
OCCASIONALLY PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS. BEFORE STORMS FIRED, BNA WAS
ABLE TO REACH 101 DEGREES WHICH BROKE THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF 100
DEGREES SET BACK IN 1897. STORMS AND THE ASSOCIATED STRATIFORM
PRECIPITATION HAVE DISSIPATED. CLOUD COVER WILL DECREASE OVER THE
COMING HOURS WHICH WILL ALLOW SOME PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP. THE
UPPER RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AND SLIDE EAST ON SATURDAY WITH A WEAK
SHORTWAVE APPROACHING AFTER 18Z. MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
SHOULD DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW
REGARDING HOW WIDESPREAD THE ACTIVITY IS. MANY OF THE 00Z CAMS
HAVE MORE LIMITED COVERAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
COMPARED TO THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. WHILE IT WILL STILL BE HOT
AND HUMID, INSTABILITY PARAMETERS LOOK WEAKER TOMORROW, SO THE
SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL LOOKS LOWER, BUT NOT COMPLETELY ABSENT. AS
I MENTIONED, IT WILL STILL BE HOT AND HUMID BUT WITH THE UPPER
HIGH WEAKER AND FURTHER EAST, IT WILL NOT BE AS HOT AS IT'S BEEN.
HIGHS SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S WITH HEAT INDEX
VALUES UP TO 105.
WITH THE SHORTWAVE GLANCING THE AREA TOMORROW AFTERNOON/EVENING, ANY
SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY MAY EXTEND PAST SUNSET AND DELAY SOME
FIREWORKS. A WEAK TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON SUNDAY WITH HOT
AND HUMID CONDITIONS STILL IN PLACE WHICH WILL KEEP MEDIUM SHOWER
AND STORM CHANCES AROUND.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1031 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2026
AS WE MOVE INTO NEXT WEEK, OUR AREA WILL REMAIN IN A WEAK TROUGHING
PATTERN WITH A DIFFUSE SURFACE BOUNDARY NEAR THE AREA. THIS WILL
LEAD TO DAILY MEDIUM RAIN AND STORM CHANCES WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND
NORMAL. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S AND LOWS WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. WHILE I DON'T EXPECT ANY ORGANIZED
SEVERE THREATS NEXT WEEK, THERE WILL BE THE DAILY LOW THREAT OF AN
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUST ALONG WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AT TIMES.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 503 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2026
THERE STILL COULD BE SOME BRIEF PATCHY BR THAT IMPACTS THE
TERMINALS THROUGH 13Z, BUT OTHERWISE, MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL
BE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. DECIDED TO PUT IN A VCSH
THROUGH 15Z FOR KSRB AND KCSV FOR SOME LAST MINUTE CONVECTION
THAT'S DEVELOPED ACROSS THE PLATEAU THIS MORNING. STILL NOT
COMPLETELY CONFIDENT ABOUT TSRA DEVELOPMENT AND COVERAGE TODAY,
BUT CONTINUED WITH A PROB30 FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
FOR KCKV, KSRB, AND KCSV. LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS CAN BE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 95 75 92 74 / 30 40 60 40
CLARKSVILLE 95 74 92 73 / 50 30 60 40
CROSSVILLE 90 70 88 69 / 30 30 70 40
COLUMBIA 94 72 92 72 / 30 40 70 40
COOKEVILLE 91 71 88 71 / 30 40 60 40
JAMESTOWN 91 69 88 69 / 30 30 70 40
LAWRENCEBURG 92 72 90 71 / 20 40 60 40
MURFREESBORO 96 73 93 73 / 20 40 60 40
WAVERLY 94 73 91 72 / 40 30 60 40
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TNZ005>011-023>034-
056>066-075-077>080-093>095.
SHORT TERM...REAGAN
LONG TERM....REAGAN
AVIATION.....HURLEY
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