078
FXUS64 KOHX 260023
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
723 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2026
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 712 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2026
- PATCHY DENSE FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT, MAINLY
IN AREAS THAT EXPERIENCED SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
- STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT WITH ALL HAZARDS POSSIBLE. STAY TUNED FOR FORECAST
UPDATES THIS WEEKEND.
- THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS TUESDAY EVENING, BUT THIS
WILL BE CONDITIONAL ON HOW MONDAY NIGHT'S EVENT EVOLVES.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 712 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2026
EARLIER CONVECTION HAS INDEED MOSTLY DISSIPATED OR EXITED MIDDLE
TENNESSEE. ONCE THE REMAINING FEW CELLS DEPART THE REGION, WE WILL
BE LEFT WITH NO APPRECIABLE POPS UNTIL MONDAY. THE EVENING
SOUNDING FROM OHX DOES SHOW AN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE
(SBCAPE OF 1,048 J/KG, LIFTED INDEX OF -3), BUT ALSO A RELATIVELY
DRY COLUMN. (PRECIPITABLE WATER IS JUST 0.86".) A WEAK SURFACE
AND UPPER RIDGE ARE POSITIONED TO SLIDE ACROSS THE MID STATE
TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT, AND THAT WILL PAVE THE WAY FOR OUR
NEXT ACTIVE WEATHER SYSTEM ON MONDAY. IN THE NEAR TERM, PATCHY
DENSE FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER THIS EVENING AND ESPECIALLY
OVERNIGHT IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON. WE
DON'T KNOW YET IF IT WILL BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN
ADVISORY LATER ON, BUT WE WILL DEFINITELY BE WATCHING THE
VISIBILITIES.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1113 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2026
THE PATCHY OVERNIGHT DENSE FOG HAS LIFTED WITH LIGHT NORTH WINDS
OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. THERE IS A SURFACE BOUNDARY
DRAPED SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST FROM AROUND LAWRENCE COUNTY THROUGH
SOUTHERN FENTRESS COUNTY. SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY, THERE HAVE BEEN
SOME ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS. CAMS ARE FAVORING LOCATIONS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON.
NBM THUNDER PROBABILITIES ARE LOW, BUT AN ISOLATED STORM SOUTH OF
THE BOUNDARY CANNOT BE RULED OUT. SOME PATCHY FOG WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP AGAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE, THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL BE QUIET AS ANY SHOWERS
DIMINISH AFTER DARK WITH THE LOSS OF INSTABILITY. SUNDAY WILL BE
DRY ACROSS THE AREA AS SOME TRANSIENT UPPER RIDGING TRAVERSES THE
AREA.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1113 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2026
THE TARGET OF THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. BY
MONDAY MORNING A SHORTWAVE WILL BE EJECTING OUT OF THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES BECOMING MORE NEGATIVELY-TILTED AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. A 994-
996 MB SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY 00Z TUESDAY. MOIST, UNSTABLE AIR WILL
BE DRAWN NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY WITH 60+ DEW POINTS ADVECTING
INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA BY MIDDAY. THERE WILL NOT BE
MUCH IN THE WAY OF FORCING THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON MONDAY,
SO I EXPECT JUST WARM AND BREEZY CONDITIONS. STORMS WILL DEVELOP
TO OUR NORTH AND WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND MOVE INTO THE AREA
BETWEEN 00Z-06Z TUESDAY. AS STORMS PROGRESS TOWARD OUR AREA, THEY
ARE EXPECTED TO CONGEAL INTO AN MCS. AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED
BY 1000+ J/KG CAPE, 40-50 KTS OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR, AND LAPSE
RATES AROUND 7 C/KM IS EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE
STORMS. THE INSTABILITY WILL DECREASE AS THE OVERNIGHT HOURS GO
ALONG AND THE STORMS PROGRESS EASTWARD. WITH ALL OF THIS SAID,
DAMAGING WINDS, SOME EMBEDDED TORNADOES, AND LARGE HAIL ARE ALL
REASONABLE TO EXPECT.
AFTER THE STORMS PASS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING, THERE WILL
BE NO FRONTAL PASSAGE. THERE IS A QUESTION OF HOW MUCH RECOVERY IS
ABLE TO HAPPEN ON TUESDAY, BUT THERE IS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE THAT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY EVENING/OVERNIGHT. SOME GUIDANCE
DOES SHOW THAT ENOUGH RECOVERY WILL OCCUR FOR STORMS TO POSE
ANOTHER SEVERE RISK ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT ON TUESDAY.
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THE FIRST HALF OF
WEDNESDAY WITH ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FROM AN UPPER TROUGH PASSING TO
THE NORTH. SOME COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL SETTLE IN BY
THURSDAY, BUT IT LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER POTENTIAL RAIN OPPORTUNITY
LATE FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND WHICH IS GOOD NEWS FOR THE
CURRENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 547 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2026
BNA/MQY/CKV...VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH MAINLY NE WINDS LESS
THAN 10 KT.
SRB/CSV...ONGOING SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE AREA WILL DISSIPATE
BY 03Z. THEN, LIGHT NORTH WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES WILL PROVIDE A
FAVORABLE SETUP FOR DENSE FOG AND STRATUS. CIGS AND VSBYS ARE
EXPECTED TO PLUMMET TO LIFR BY 06Z, THEN CONTINUING THROUGH
DAYBREAK. THE FOG/STRATUS WILL LIFT WITH VFR AND LIGHT NE WINDS
BY 15Z.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 57 84 61 85 / 0 0 10 20
CLARKSVILLE 54 82 60 86 / 0 0 10 40
CROSSVILLE 50 79 55 78 / 10 0 0 10
COLUMBIA 54 83 59 85 / 10 10 10 20
COOKEVILLE 53 80 58 80 / 10 0 0 10
JAMESTOWN 51 80 54 80 / 10 0 0 10
LAWRENCEBURG 54 82 60 83 / 10 0 10 20
MURFREESBORO 54 84 59 85 / 10 0 10 20
WAVERLY 57 83 61 86 / 0 10 20 40
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE.......ROSE
SHORT TERM...REAGAN
LONG TERM....REAGAN
AVIATION.....13
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page