829
FXUS64 KOHX 270531
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1231 AM CDT MON APR 27 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1230 AM CDT MON APR 27 2026
- THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT MCS REMNANTS WILL AFFECT PORTIONS
OF WESTERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE TOMORROW MORNING.
- STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FROM MONDAY EVENING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH ALL HAZARDS POSSIBLE.
- ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TUESDAY
EVENING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH ALL HAZARDS POSSIBLE.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1008 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2026
WHAT A MESSY FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 60 HOURS OR SO AS MIDDLE
TENNESSEE TRANSITIONS TO A HIGHLY-ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN FROM
TOMORROW INTO WEDNESDAY. IN THE NEAR TERM, THE COMBINATION OF A
SURFACE RIDGE TO OUR EAST AND A DEEP LOW PRESSURE CENTER
DEVELOPING OVER THE GREAT PLAINS IS SETTING UP A STRONG SOUTHERLY
FLOW OVER MIDDLE TENNESSEE BY TOMORROW THAT WILL ADVECT HIGHER DEW
POINTS INTO THE REGION AND KEEP TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
CURRENTLY PUMMELING SOUTHERN MISSOURI IS EXPECTED TO PROPAGATE
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AND SNEAK INTO WEST
TENNESSEE JUST PRIOR TO 12Z. WHETHER IT HOLDS TOGETHER LONG ENOUGH
TO IMPACT MIDDLE TENNESSEE IS ANOTHER MATTER. THE 00Z HRRR
SUGGESTS THAT THE REMNANTS OF THE MCS WILL DISSIPATE BEFORE
REACHING THE TENNESSEE RIVER; PREVIOUS ITERATIONS OF THE HRRR
SHOWED WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE MID STATE BEING IMPACTED BY MORNING
CONVECTION. WHILE THERE IS NO RISK OF SEVERE STORMS TOMORROW
MORNING EVEN SHOULD THE MCS REMNANTS HOLD TOGETHER THIS FAR, WE'RE
INCLUDING MAINLY LOW CHANCE POPS FOR THE MORNING PERIOD AS A
PRECAUTION. BUT THE STORM SYSTEM CURRENTLY BREWING OVER THE GREAT
PLAINS IS THE ONE WE'RE MOST CONCERNED ABOUT. BY 00Z TOMORROW
EVENING, A COLD FRONT WILL BE SITUATED JUST WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND ENTER MIDDLE TENNESSEE SHORTLY
AFTER 00Z, THEN IMPACT THE MID STATE FOR THE ENTIRETY OF TOMORROW
NIGHT. GIVEN THE DEEP INSTABILITY, STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES,
ABUNDANT AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND SIGNIFICANT LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR,
IT'S SAFE TO SAY THAT ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER ARE POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE MID STATE. GIVEN THE
NOCTURNAL TIMING OF THE EVENT, THE ATMOSPHERE WILL SHED SOME OF
ITS INSTABILITY AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES AND WE LOSE OUR DAYTIME
HEATING, SO THE SEVERE THREAT WILL LESSEN (BUT NOT ENTIRELY) THE
FARTHER EAST THIS SYSTEM PROGRESSES. AND TUESDAY NIGHT WE MAY GET
TO DO IT ALL OVER AGAIN AS A SECOND LOW CENTER RIDES NORTHEASTWARD
OUT OF THE ARKLATEX AND ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND FINALLY BRINGS THE ENTIRE LOW PRESSURE AREA THROUGH
MIDDLE TENNESSEE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. AGAIN, SEVERE STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT, BUT A LOT WILL ALSO DEPEND ON WHAT EXACTLY
TAKES PLACE MONDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1008 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2026
SOME LEFTOVER CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY MORNING, BUT SEVERE
STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED BEYOND TUESDAY NIGHT. THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK AND WEEKEND LOOK TO BE SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER WITH ONLY LOW
(OR NO) RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1230 AM CDT MON APR 27 2026
OVERNIGHT AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE VERY QUIET ACROSS MIDDLE TN
TERMINALS WITH VFR AND LIGHT SE WINDS. THE ONLY MENTIONABLE ITEM
IS MARGINAL LLWS AT CKV, BNA, AND MQY OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS.
THE MAIN IMPACT TO AVIATION WILL BE TSRA ENTERING THE REGION
TOMORROW. THERE'S CONDITIONAL THREATS FOR STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE
TSRA IMPACTING CKV IN THE MORNING HOURS. THERE'S A LOW CHANCE FOR
TSRA TO BE NEAR BNA AND MQY AS WELL, BUT TOO LOW FOR TAF MENTION.
THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR TSRA WILL BE TOMORROW EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT. CKV AND BNA HAVE TEMPOS FOR THE MAIN WINDOW FOR STRONG
TO POSSIBLE SEVERE TSRA. IT IS JUST OUTSIDE THE FORECAST WINDOW
FOR MQY THIS ISSUANCE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 84 65 82 66 / 20 90 70 100
CLARKSVILLE 85 67 82 64 / 50 90 70 100
CROSSVILLE 77 54 74 59 / 0 70 80 100
COLUMBIA 84 64 83 63 / 20 90 60 100
COOKEVILLE 79 58 77 62 / 10 80 70 100
JAMESTOWN 80 54 77 59 / 10 80 70 100
LAWRENCEBURG 83 62 82 63 / 20 80 70 100
MURFREESBORO 84 62 82 63 / 10 90 70 100
WAVERLY 85 65 82 62 / 50 90 70 100
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM....ROSE
AVIATION.....SIZEMORE
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