366
FXUS64 KOHX 281037
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
437 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 428 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2026
- SPRING-LIKE WEEKEND WITH DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS.
- LOW TO MEDIUM RAIN CHANCES WITH MILD TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT
NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1010 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2026
A 1017MB SURFACE HIGH IS SMACK OVER MIDDLE TN TONIGHT, AND THIS
IS PROMOTING COOL AND VERY CLEAR CONDITIONS. WITH LIGHT WINDS IN
PLACE, AREAS OF ISOLATED, PATCHY FOG COULD DEVELOP OVERNIGHT,
MAINLY OVER THE PLATEAU AND NEAR ANY BODIES OF WATER. MUCH DRIER
AIR FILTERED IN TODAY, SO THIS WILL HAMPER WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT.
LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S OVERNIGHT. SATURDAY LOOKS
FANTASTIC WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND WARM TEMPERATURES. AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLIPS OFF TO OUR EAST, SURFACE WINDS WILL SHIFT OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST, PROMOTING WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION, HELPING
SEND TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE 70S. WITH THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE
WILL COME AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE AS WE HEAD INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS SUNDAY.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1010 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2026
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO FILL IN AS OUR NEXT
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SHOWER CHANCES WILL INCREASE EARLY
MONDAY MORNING TO 30-50% WITH SHOWERS LINGERING THE MAJORITY OF
THE DAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT WITH A DROP
BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING LOOKS TO
QUICKLY BUILD IN BY TUESDAY, KEEPING THE RAIN CHANCES TO OUR NORTH
AND HELPING SQUEEZE OUR TEMPS BACK UP INTO THE 70S. BEYOND
TUESDAY, THE FORECAST LOOKS MILD AND UNSETTLED WITH A SERIES OF
WAVES BRINGING RAIN/STORM CHANCES TO THE AREA. INCREASED
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PULL ANOMALOUSLY HIGH MOISTURE IN, SETTING
THE STAGE FOR REPEATED ROUNDS OF RAIN. CURRENTLY, THE GREATEST
RISK FOR ANY FLASH FLOODING LOOKS TO REMAIN JUST TO OUR NORTH AND
WEST AS HIGHER PWAT VALUES RESIDE OVER THOSE AREAS, BUT THIS WILL
DEPEND ON WHERE SURFACE BOUNDARIES DECIDE TO SET UP AND STALL OUT.
AT PRESENT, TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND ARE CURRENTLY
RANGING FROM 1-2" WITH ONLY A 25% CHANCE OF EXCEEDING 2".
WITH REGARDS TO THUNDERSTORMS, SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS UNLIKELY AT
THIS TIME. A MORE AMPLIFIED TROUGH WILL EJECT OUT OF THE GREAT
PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY, TRACKING A SURFACE LOW TO OUR NORTH. SOUNDINGS
DO NOT CURRENTLY BOAST A SEVERE THREAT AS BETTER DYNAMIC SUPPORT
IS TO OUR NORTH WITH ONLY LIMITED INSTABILITY, BUT WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR FORECAST TRENDS THROUGHOUT THE WEEK FOR ANY
CHANGES. LOW TO MEDIUM RAIN AND STORM CHANCES STICK WITH US
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND AS WE REMAIN SANDWICHED BETWEEN TROUGHING TO
OUR WEST AND HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 428 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2026
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE KEEPING TAFS
VFR. UNDER GRADUALLY INCREASING CIRRUS CLOUDS, WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT, MAINLY SSW THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
AROUND 01/12Z (DAYBREAK SUNDAY MORNING), A COLD FRONT WILL DROP
INTO THE AREA WITH WINDS BECOMING N 5-10KT AT CKV/BNA/MQY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 74 49 65 39 / 0 10 0 30
CLARKSVILLE 72 46 59 36 / 0 10 0 40
CROSSVILLE 67 47 63 40 / 0 10 0 20
COLUMBIA 73 49 66 43 / 0 0 0 20
COOKEVILLE 68 47 61 40 / 0 10 0 30
JAMESTOWN 67 46 60 36 / 0 10 0 30
LAWRENCEBURG 72 48 66 43 / 0 0 0 20
MURFREESBORO 72 47 65 43 / 0 10 0 30
WAVERLY 72 48 61 40 / 0 10 0 40
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...BAGGETT
LONG TERM....BAGGETT
AVIATION.....13
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