796
FXUS64 KOHX 220530
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1230 AM CDT WED APR 22 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1226 AM CDT WED APR 22 2026
- NO RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THURSDAY; WE WILL ENJOY PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
- A MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL EMERGE ON FRIDAY AND/OR
SATURDAY WHEN STORMS WITH LOW RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS MAY DEVELOP.
- THERE IS A MEDIUM RISK OF SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE MID-STATE ON
MONDAY. THIS MAY INCLUDE THE RISK OF TORNADOES, DAMAGING
STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1121 PM CDT TUE APR 21 2026
ALL IS QUIET TONIGHT AS HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST. LOWS WILL
DROP INTO THE 50S OVERNIGHT. THIS WONDERFULLY QUIET WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY WITH EVER-SO-SLIGHTLY INCREASING
TEMPERATURES AS SURFACE WINDS SHIFTS SOUTHERLY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOW 80S CAN BE EXPECTED WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1121 PM CDT TUE APR 21 2026
ON FRIDAY, THE RIDGE KEEPING OUR WEATHER SO QUIET WILL SLIP OFF TO
THE EAST AND A SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY RIPPLE IN BEHIND IT. WHILE
THE DYNAMICS AREN'T TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE, I DO AGREE WITH THE
PREVIOUS FORECASTER THAT THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A MARGINAL THREAT
FOR STRONG WINDS. SOUNDINGS SHOW A DRY BOUNDARY LAYER WITH A
AROUND A 20 DEGREE DEW POINT DEPRESSION AND DECENT CAPE, INCLUDING
DCAPE. LAPSE RATES AND SHEAR ARE BOTH ON THE MARGINAL SIDE, BUT
AGAIN, COULD BE JUST ENOUGH TO HELP POSE A DAMAGING WIND THREAT.
AS OF NOW, TIMING LOOKS TO BE IN THE FRIDAY EVENING/NIGHT RANGE,
SO KEEP THIS IN MIND IF YOU HAVE ANY FRIDAY NIGHT PLANS. THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND WILL FEATURE AT LEAST LOW AFTERNOON
RAIN/STORM CHANCES, AROUND 20%, WITH INCREASING TROPOSPHERIC
MOISTURE. WE WILL BE ON THE CUSP OF A VERY QUICK MOVING RIDGE,
LEAVING US WITH PLENTY OF AFTERNOON INSTABILITY, BUT LITTLE TO NO
DYNAMIC SUPPORT. HOWEVER, THAT WILL CHANGE COME MONDAY, WHICH
LEADS ME TO...
NEXT MONDAY, A NEGATIVELY-TILTED TROUGH WILL PUSH A STRONG COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE AREA, BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR A MORE ORGANIZED
THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER. AHEAD OF THIS LOW, WE WILL BE MAJORLY
WARM-SECTORED AS INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS STREAM IN ABUNDANT
MOISTURE WITH DEW POINTS SLATED TO RISE INTO THE 60S AND AMBIENT
TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S. A STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET WILL BRING
PLENTY OF SHEAR INTO THE PICTURE WITH MODEST LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL RESULT IN PLENTY OF INSTABILITY. ALL TO
SAY, THE CURRENT SETUP FAVORS AN ALL-HAZARDS SEVERE THREAT FOR
MONDAY, BUT THERE IS STILL A LOT OF TIME BETWEEN NOW AND THEN FOR
THINGS TO CHANGE. THE MOST IMPORTANT THING YOU CAN DO NOW IS STAY
TUNED FOR UPDATES AS THE FORECAST EVOLVES. WE HAVE HAD A PRETTY
QUIET SPRING, AND IT'S EASY TO FORGET WE ARE IN OUR PEAK SEVERE
WEATHER SEASON. WE CAN'T LET OUR GUARDS DOWN JUST YET, THOUGH, SO
PLEASE BE SURE TO STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.
ONE LAST THING TO MENTION: RAIN! ALL OF MIDDLE TN IS IN AT LEAST
A MODERATE DROUGHT WITH A SIGNIFICANT PORTION IN A SEVERE DROUGHT.
WE CAN AT LEAST LOOK FORWARD TO SOME MUCH-NEEDED RAINFALL WITH
THE UPCOMING UNSETTLED PATTERN. THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL
PLACE PWAT VALUES ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE CLIMATOLOGICALLY, SO
EPISODES OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1226 AM CDT WED APR 22 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST THIS TAF CYCLE. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND
SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT, SHIFTING SOUTHWESTERLY LATER THIS MORNING AND
INCREASING TO 5-10 KTS SUSTAINED. GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS WILL BE
LIKELY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 83 55 84 61 / 0 0 0 0
CLARKSVILLE 82 55 83 61 / 0 0 0 10
CROSSVILLE 77 52 79 55 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBIA 82 53 83 59 / 0 0 0 0
COOKEVILLE 78 53 80 57 / 0 0 0 0
JAMESTOWN 77 51 80 53 / 0 0 0 0
LAWRENCEBURG 81 54 81 59 / 0 0 0 0
MURFREESBORO 82 53 83 59 / 0 0 0 0
WAVERLY 82 56 83 63 / 0 0 0 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...BAGGETT
LONG TERM....BAGGETT
AVIATION.....BAGGETT
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