929
FXUS64 KOHX 272333
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
633 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2026
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 621 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2026
- LOW TO MEDIUM THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS EVENING. LOW CHANCE OF
STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH STORMS MAINLY ALONG THE PLATEAU.
- SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE MID 90S NEXT WEEK
WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 621 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2026
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS PUSHING THROUGH MIDDLE TN THIS EVENING,
BRINGING A NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT WITH A BRIEF BURST OF 10-15 MPH
WINDS. THIS FRONT IS BRINGING A NOTABLE DROP IN MOISTURE AS DEW
POINT TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED ANYWHERE FROM 5 TO 8 DEGREES.
CONVECTION HAS STRUGGLED TO INITIATE THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN SUCH
POOR LAPSE RATES. A FEW LIGHT RETURNS ARE POPPING UP OVER THE
NORTHEAST, BUT NOTHING THAT HAS DEVELOPED SO FAR TODAY HAS BEEN
ABLE TO GET TALL ENOUGH TO PRODUCE LIGHTNING. STILL A SMALL WINDOW
OF OPPORTUNITY FOR SOMETHING TO SPARK UP ALONG THE LEADING EDGE
OF THE FRONT THIS EVENING, MAINLY OVER THE PLATEAU. SOUNDINGS
SHOW A THIN LAYER OF MOISTURE ALOFT BETWEEN 700-800 MB WITH
INVERTED-V PROFILES AT THE SURFACE, LENDING TOWARDS A DAMAGING
WIND THREAT. DCAPE IS OVER 1000 J/KG AS WELL, SO ANY STORMS THAT
ARE ABLE TO GET UP ON AND GOING WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED FOR
DAMAGING WINDS. ONCE WE LOSE THE DAYLIGHT, INSTABILITY VALUES WILL
DROP OFF AND THE ALREADY LOW CHANCE FOR STRONG STORMS WILL DROP
EVEN LOWER.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1031 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2026
THE MORNING FOG AND LOW STRATUS ARE CLOSE TO BEING MIXED OUT ACROSS
THE AREA AND SOME SCATTERED AREAS OF CUMULUS ARE BEGINNING TO POP
UP. THERE IS A SURFACE BOUNDARY JUST NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. THAT
BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. STORMS WILL BE LESS ORGANIZED THAN
YESTERDAY, BUT STRONG WIND GUSTS PARTICULARLY ALONG THE PLATEAU
CANNOT BE RULED OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. ANY
ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL SUPPORT. BEHIND
THE BOUNDARY, DEW POINTS AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE A COUPLE OF
DEGREES LOWER ON FRIDAY. WITH THE DRIER AIR, DIURNAL STORMS ARE
NOT ANTICIPATED.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1031 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2026
THE UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT ON SATURDAY AS THE UPPER
HIGH PUSHES EASTWARD OUT OF THE PLAINS AND PUSHES THE UPPER
TROUGHING EAST OF OUR AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN WARMING TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DEW POINTS LOOK TOLERABLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH VALUES MAINLY IN THE 60S. THE HUMIDITY LOOKS LIKE IT WILL CREEP
UP AT THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO
CLIMB TOWARD THE MID 90S. AS FAR AS RAIN CHANCES, THERE ARE NOT ANY
ORGANIZED RAIN CHANCES IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST AND THE CHANCES FOR
DIURNAL ACTIVITY LOOKS VERY LOW AS WELL.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 618 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST. A COLD FRONT IS PUSHING THROUGH MIDDLE TN
NOW THAT IS RESULTING IN A NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT BEHIND THE FRONT.
RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT, SUSTAINED WINDS WILL BRIEFLY RANGE FROM
10-12 KTS, BUT WILL RELAX BELOW 10 KTS THIS EVENING. MVFR TO IFR
FOG IMPACTS LIKELY OVERNIGHT AT CSV AND SRB.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 68 89 66 92 / 10 0 0 0
CLARKSVILLE 65 88 63 90 / 0 0 0 0
CROSSVILLE 64 84 61 86 / 10 10 0 0
COLUMBIA 67 91 66 93 / 10 0 0 0
COOKEVILLE 66 86 64 88 / 10 0 0 0
JAMESTOWN 66 84 63 87 / 10 0 0 0
LAWRENCEBURG 66 89 64 91 / 10 0 0 0
MURFREESBORO 68 91 66 93 / 10 0 0 0
WAVERLY 66 88 64 91 / 0 0 0 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE.......BAGGETT
SHORT TERM...REAGAN
LONG TERM....REAGAN
AVIATION.....BAGGETT
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