366
FXUS64 KOHX 121717
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1117 AM CST THU FEB 12 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1115 AM CST THU FEB 12 2026
- DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING FOLLOWED BY A MILD AND
WET WEEKEND.
- NEAR 100% RAIN CHANCE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH TOTAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1-2 INCHES. FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME.
- ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1100 AM CST THU FEB 12 2026
HIGH PRESSURE IS IN CONTROL FROM THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE DEEP
SOUTH TODAY WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS STABLE WEATHER
WILL STICK AROUND THROUGH TOMORROW AS THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVES
TOWARD THE EAST COAST AND WE WARM INTO THE 50S/60S TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL SUBSEQUENTLY APPROACH FROM THE
WEST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS A SOUTHERN STREAM
DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE WEST MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1100 AM CST THU FEB 12 2026
TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE VALUES WILL STEADILY INCREASE THROUGHOUT
THE DAY ON SATURDAY WITH A TRANSITION TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES FOR MIDDLE TENNESSEE MAINLY BEGIN SATURDAY
NIGHT ONCE A SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET EXTENDS INTO THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY PROVIDING THE BEST PERIOD OF WARM AIR AND MOISTURE
ADVECTION. WIDESPREAD RAIN ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH GRADUAL DECREASES SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE LOW PRESSURE (TO OUR SOUTH) MOVES EAST. THANKFULLY WE REMAIN
ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW WHICH SHOULD KEEP STRONGER
CONVECTION SUPPRESSED TO OUR SOUTH WHERE BEST INSTABILITY WILL
RESIDE. THIS WILL LIMIT OVERALL RAINFALL RATES AND FLOODING
CONCERNS. FORECAST RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE STILL IN THE 1-2" RANGE,
HOWEVER.
MEDIUM-RANGE GUIDANCE/ENSEMBLES SUGGEST LOW-AMPLITUDE RIDGING AND
POSITIVE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES TO BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK, PERSISTING POTENTIALLY FOR SEVERAL
DAYS. THIS INCREASES CONFIDENCE WE'LL SEE ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. IN FACT, OUR LATEST FORECAST FOR
NASHVILLE ON WEDNESDAY WOULD TIE THE 1951 RECORD HIGH OF 74
DEGREES.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1115 AM CST THU FEB 12 2026
VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN
CIRRUS CLOUDS. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY NE LESS THAN 10KT THOUGH
TONIGHT, THEN MAINLY ESE FRIDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 55 34 62 37 / 0 0 0 10
CLARKSVILLE 53 32 60 36 / 0 0 0 10
CROSSVILLE 49 29 55 33 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBIA 55 32 61 37 / 0 10 0 10
COOKEVILLE 51 31 57 36 / 0 0 0 0
JAMESTOWN 48 28 55 31 / 0 0 0 0
LAWRENCEBURG 54 32 60 38 / 0 10 0 10
MURFREESBORO 54 31 60 35 / 0 0 0 10
WAVERLY 54 34 60 40 / 0 0 0 10
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...SIZEMORE
LONG TERM....SIZEMORE
AVIATION.....13
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