125
FXUS64 KOHX 120525
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1225 AM CDT SAT SEP 12 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1221 AM CDT SAT SEP 12 2026
- MEDIUM TO HIGH RAIN AND STORM CHANCES THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
STRONGEST STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL.
- TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO REMAIN WELL ABOVE-NORMAL NEXT WEEK WITH
HIGHS INTO THE 90S MOST DAYS. HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE 100S ARE
POSSIBLE MID WEEK, MAINLY FOR AREAS WEST OF THE PLATEAU.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1030 PM CDT FRI SEP 11 2026
A LINGERING UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS STILL JUST OFF TO OUR WEST TONIGHT.
THIS IS SITUATED NEAR A CORRIDOR OF FAVORABLE MOISTURE FOR
CONTINUED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS CURRENTLY. INSTABILITY HAS
REALLY DROPPED OFF THIS EVENING, THOUGH, SO ACTIVITY IS FADING OFF
ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE. WE HAD A FEW STRONGER STORMS EARLIER IN
THE AFTERNOON WITH ~30 KTS SHEAR IN PLACE. REGARDLESS, THE SYSTEM
ALOFT COINCIDES WITH A WEAK SURFACE FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE THAT
WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. WE'LL GET ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AS A RESULT, BEST CHANCES WILL
TRANSLATE TO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA TOMORROW WITH DRIER AIR
MOVING IN FROM THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. SUNDAY WILL BE HOT
AND DRY WITH RIDGING QUICKLY MOVING IN FROM THE WEST.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1030 PM CDT FRI SEP 11 2026
UNFORTUNATELY SYNOPTIC RIDGING WILL DOMINATE THE REGION FOR MUCH
OF THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD. THIS WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER
STRETCH OF TEMPERATURES RUNNING WELL ABOVE-NORMAL WITH LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF MEANINGFUL RAINFALL IN THE FORECAST. THE WORST OF THE
HEAT LOOKS TO BE MID NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 90S WEST
OF THE PLATEAU. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL SUPPORT HEAT INDEX VALUES
INTO THE 100S DURING THE AFTERNOON WHICH COINCIDES WITH MODERATE
TO MAJOR HEAT RISK LEVELS. GUIDANCE SHOWS A DECREASE IN HEAT LATE
NEXT WEEK, BUT THAT REMAINS SEVERAL DAYS OFF.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1221 AM CDT SAT SEP 12 2026
MVFR CIGS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN TOWARDS 11Z AND WILL STICK
AROUND FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING BEFORE RISING BACK TO VFR AFTER
17Z. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA AFTER 11Z AND
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
AFTER 17Z FROM AROUND NASHVILLE EASTWARD. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DIMINISH BY 23Z. MVFR/IFR IN ANY
THUNDERSTORMS. SOUTHERLY WINDS UP TO 5 KNOTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 88 69 93 70 / 50 0 0 0
CLARKSVILLE 88 68 93 67 / 40 0 0 0
CROSSVILLE 81 64 86 63 / 70 20 0 0
COLUMBIA 90 68 94 68 / 50 0 0 0
COOKEVILLE 83 66 88 66 / 60 10 0 0
JAMESTOWN 82 65 86 65 / 70 20 0 0
LAWRENCEBURG 88 67 92 67 / 50 10 0 0
MURFREESBORO 90 68 95 67 / 50 10 0 0
WAVERLY 88 68 93 69 / 30 0 0 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...SIZEMORE
LONG TERM....SIZEMORE
AVIATION.....MUELLER
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