874
FXUS64 KOHX 131112
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
512 AM CST TUE JAN 13 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 509 AM CST TUE JAN 13 2026
- MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN ON WEDNESDAY. A CHANGEOVER
TO LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO
THURSDAY MORNING.
- MEDIUM CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS (LESS THAN 1") ACROSS
THE PLATEAU WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
- BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH LOW
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1030 PM CST MON JAN 12 2026
THE UPPER-LEVELS WILL BECOME MORE ACTIVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A
FEW DISTURBANCES ALOFT INTERACT WITHIN A DEEPENING LONGWAVE
TROUGH. AS THESE APPROACH THE REGION ON TUESDAY, ALONG WITH A COLD
FRONT, SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE WHICH WILL FAVOR A BIG
WARM-UP TO THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60 TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING ALONG WITH A DEVELOPING BAND OF LIGHT RAIN. RAIN
CHANCES REMAIN QUITE HIGH, THOUGH AMOUNTS ARE LESS THAN ONE
QUARTER INCH. THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE WILL TAKE A STARK DECREASE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE DEEPENING TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD, AND
LOW-LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES SHOULD DROP QUICKLY AFTER THE COLD
FRONT PASSES. THIS CONTINUES TO FAVOR A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW
WEDNESDAY EVENING THOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE DWINDLING QUICKLY.
DESPITE AREA-WIDE CHANCES FOR FLURRIES, ONLY A LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE PLATEAU WHERE NBM
PROBABILITIES FOR 1.0" OR MORE SNOW HAVE DECREASED TO 10-25%.
FORECAST LOWS IN THE UPPER 10S TO LOW 20S ARE FORECAST INTO
THURSDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1030 PM CST MON JAN 12 2026
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL
FEATURE PERSISTENT LONGWAVE TROUGHING ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN CONUS. THIS WILL FAVOR CONTINUED BELOW-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. ONLY LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES EXIST FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH MOISTURE STARVED
UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES, MUCH LIKE THE ONE DISCUSSED FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 509 AM CST TUE JAN 13 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD. SHOWERS
WILL IMPACT CKV AFTER 14/09Z BUT CIGS AND VIS SHOULD REMAIN VFR.
THE SHOWERS MAY GET TO BNA/MQY PRIOR TO 12Z, BUT JUST INCLUDED A
PROB30 GROUP FOR NOW. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SSW/SW AFTER
15Z WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 10 KTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE GUSTS WILL DECREASE AFTER
03-05Z.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 61 42 50 22 / 0 40 90 10
CLARKSVILLE 60 43 49 20 / 0 70 80 10
CROSSVILLE 54 36 44 16 / 0 10 80 30
COLUMBIA 59 40 50 21 / 0 30 90 10
COOKEVILLE 54 38 45 19 / 0 20 90 20
JAMESTOWN 55 37 44 17 / 0 30 80 30
LAWRENCEBURG 57 39 49 21 / 0 20 90 10
MURFREESBORO 58 40 49 21 / 0 30 90 10
WAVERLY 58 41 48 20 / 0 60 80 10
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...SIZEMORE
LONG TERM....SIZEMORE
AVIATION.....REAGAN
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