340
FXUS64 KOHX 101738
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1238 PM CDT FRI JUL 10 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1229 PM CDT FRI JUL 10 2026
- A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE UNTIL 6
PM SUNDAY.
- THERE'S A LOW CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MIDDLE
TENNESSEE THROUGH SUNDAY. DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE MAIN CONCERN.
- DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK, BUT WITH ISOLATED AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1130 AM CDT FRI JUL 10 2026
A VERY ACTIVE AND WET PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS MIDDLE TN TODAY
AND INTO THE WEEKEND, DRIVEN BY A SLOW-MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH A MOIST ENVIRONMENT. SOILS
REMAIN SATURATED FROM RECENT RAINFALL (MANY AREAS ALREADY SEEING
2-3 INCHES THIS WEEK), KEEPING FLASH FLOODING AS THE PRIMARY
CONCERN. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF MIDDLE TN
THROUGH SUNDAY. EARLIER THIS MORNING, SHOWERS AND STORMS WERE
IMPACTING THE REGION, WITH SOME AREAS SEEING REDUCED VISIBILITY
AND GUSTY WINDS. THESE STORMS HAVE SINCE MOVED OUT OF THE AREA
AND CLOUDS ARE CLEARING. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH
POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONGER ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT AS A
SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS. INSTABILITY MAY BE SOMEWHAT
LIMITED BY PREVIOUS MORNING CONVECTION AND CLOUD COVER, BUT WHERE
BREAKS OF SUN OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON, STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AND DECENT SHEAR COULD SUPPORT DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN THE
STRONGEST STORMS (LOW-END SEVERE THREAT OVERALL, MARGINAL RISK
OUTLOOKED). HEAVY RAINFALL IS THE BIGGER ISSUE, WITH PWATS AROUND
2 INCHES SUPPORTING EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCTION AND BACKBUILDING
STORMS.
HIGHS TODAY REACH THE UPPER 80S WITH HEAT INDICES IN THE 90S.
OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING, LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
LIKELY, POSSIBLY WITH A BRIEF LULL MID-MORNING BEFORE DIURNAL
HEATING FIRES THINGS UP AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT SIMILAR
THREATS: HEAVY RAIN LEADING TO LOCALIZED FLOODING, AND A LOW
CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS. ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL OF 2-4 INCHES IS POSSIBLE THROUGH SATURDAY.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1130 AM CDT FRI JUL 10 2026
THE WET PATTERN LINGERS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A BROAD UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS TO THE WEST, HELPING TO CUT OFF OR SLOW A LOW
OVER THE TN VALLEY. A WEST-EAST ORIENTED BOUNDARY WILL DRIFT
SLOWLY SOUTH, SUSTAINING CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS, PARTICULARLY DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. HEAVY
RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY.
BY MID TO LATE WEEK, THE UPPER RIDGE EXPANDS OVER THE REGION,
LEADING TO DRIER OVERALL CONDITIONS WITH ONLY ISOLATED AFTERNOON
STORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM AND HUMID, WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOW 70S. OVERALL, RAIN CHANCES DROP SIGNIFICANTLY BY END OF NEXT
WEEK, OFFERING SOME RELIEF FROM THE ONGOING FLOOD RISK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT FRI JUL 10 2026
THE AFTERNOON HOURS WILL BRING MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS TO THE MID
STATE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS. WINDS WILL
BE GENERALLY SOUTHWEST WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20KT.
AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WITH A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES
INTERACTING WITH A VERY MOIST AIR MASS. SHORT RANGE MODELS SHOW
THE NEXT WAVES COMING TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WITH CLUSTERS
OF STORMS CONTAINING HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS. TEMPO AND
PROB30 GROUPS WERE INCLUDED FOR THIS ACTIVITY, BUT CHANGES MAY BE
MADE WITH TAF UPDATES AS THESE SYSTEMS PRESENT FORECAST TIMING
AND COVERAGE CHALLENGES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 73 88 72 86 / 80 70 70 80
CLARKSVILLE 72 88 71 85 / 90 70 80 80
CROSSVILLE 67 81 66 81 / 90 80 60 90
COLUMBIA 73 89 70 86 / 60 60 70 90
COOKEVILLE 69 83 68 82 / 90 80 80 90
JAMESTOWN 67 82 66 81 / 90 70 60 90
LAWRENCEBURG 72 87 70 84 / 60 60 70 90
MURFREESBORO 72 89 71 86 / 90 70 80 90
WAVERLY 72 88 70 84 / 70 60 80 80
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR TNZ005>011-023>034-
056>066-075-077>080-093>095.
SHORT TERM...CRAVENS
LONG TERM....CRAVENS
AVIATION.....13
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