926
FXUS64 KOHX 220053
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
753 PM CDT TUE MAR 21 2023
..NEW UPDATE
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 747 PM CDT TUE MAR 21 2023
LIGHT RAIN IS SLOWLY SPREADING ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE THIS
EVENING. THE 00Z SOUNDING FROM OHX SHOWS THE RESULTS OF
CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE ADVECTION THE PAST 12 HOURS, WITH PWAT
HAVING JUMPED FROM 0.15" AT 12Z TO 0.70" NOW. THE SURFACE MAP
SHOWS A WARM FROM EXTENDING ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY, WITH
EXISTING SHOWERS ALL OCCURRING NORTH OF THE FRONT. THE LATEST
HRRR SHOWS AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS LASTING THROUGH THE NIGHT
AND TOMORROW MORNING ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE, ALTHOUGH QPF VALUES
REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW. NO FORECAST CHANGES ARE PLANNED THIS
EVENING.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 145 PM CDT TUE MAR 21 2023
NOT A HALF BAD DAY ACROSS MIDDLE TN, THOUGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO PILE
INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF OUR NEXT WEATHER MAKER. RADAR ACROSS THE MID-
STATE HAS HAD THESE LIGHT RETURNS ALL MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. HOWEVER WITH 30 DEG DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ACROSS THE AREA,
RAIN IS FINDING DIFFICULT TO REACH THE GROUND. THIS WILL CHANGE AS
WE MOVE INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. HEAVIER PRECIP BEING SHOWN
ACROSS WEST TN WILL FINALLY MAKE ITS PRESENCE FELT IN OUR
NORTHWEST COUNTIES OVER THE FEW HOURS AND THIS WILL SPREAD ACROSS
THE REST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. RAINS WILL LAST THROUGH MID-
AFTERNOON TOMORROW ON THE PLATEAU WITH EXPECTED RAINFALL TOTALS
AVERAGING AROUND 0.5".
THIS CURRENT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL GET COMPLETELY OUT OF HERE BY
SUNSET TOMORROW AND WITHOUT A FRONTAL PASSAGE, ALONG WITH A
STRENGTHENING UPPER RIDGE TO OUR SOUTHEAST, WE ARE GOING TO WARM UP
CONSIDERABLY ON THURSDAY. MANY SPOTS WILL BE PUSHING 80 DEGREES.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 145 PM CDT TUE MAR 21 2023
IN ANY OTHER FORECAST PACKAGE, I'D BE TELLING YOU THAT THIS THURSDAY
WARMUP WOULD BE SETTING THE STAGE FOR A CLASSIC SPRING-TIME
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. WHILE A FEW STRONG STORMS AND POTENTIALLY
EVEN SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY
EVENING, I'M STILL NOT COMPLETELY SOLD ON WIDESPREAD SEVERE
CHANCES WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM -- BUT I AM SEEING A COUPLE OF
THINGS IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS THAT I'M PAYING MORE ATTENTION TO.
FIRST, THERE'S MORE DRY AIR ALOFT AHEAD OF WHAT LOOKS TO BE A LINE
OF STORMS FRIDAY EVENING. THIS COULD GO TOWARDS INTENSIFYING
UPDRAFTS, WHICH HAS NOT BEEN SHOWN IN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. LAPSE
RATES ARE BETTER THAN THEY HAVE BEEN, AS WELL. CAPE IS STILL NOT
IMPRESSIVE. A FEW HUNDRED J/KG IS STILL THE BEST I SEE, BUT WITH
THE PROXIMITY OF THE SURFACE LOW TO MIDDLE TN, WE COULD GET SOME
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING TO HELP OVERCOME A LACK OF INSTABILITY.
WITH THAT SAID, A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS LIKELY TO MOVE INTO THE
AREA FRIDAY EVENING AND RIGHT NOW, I LIKE AREAS WEST OF I-65 (AND
EVEN BETTER SOUTH OF I-40) FOR A CHANCE OF STRONG TO MARGINALLY
SEVERE STORMS. BIGGEST CONCERN WILL BE DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE
WINDS AND MAYBE EVEN SOME HAIL. RAINFALL TOTALS ON THE ORDER OF 1
TO 2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE, WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS IN OUR NORTHWEST
COUNTIES. IF IT SO HAPPENS THAT THESE TOTALS COME WITH JUST THE
LINE ON FRIDAY EVENING, SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BECOME
POSSIBLE, AS WELL. THE CATCH WITH THIS IS THE INCONSISTENCIES OF
QPF SETUP IN THE MODELS DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. A COUPLE MODELS
HAVE SHOWERS AND MAYBE FEW STORMS UP IN THE LBTL AREA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON, BUT MANY LEAVE THE ENTIRE MID-STATE DRY DUE TO
ATMOSPHERIC CAPPING AHEAD OF THE FRONT. IT'LL BE CLOSE, BUT IF WE
CAN SPREAD OUT THE RAINFALL AMOUNT OVER 12 HOURS INSTEAD OF 2-3
HOURS, FLOODING CONCERNS SHOULD BE PRETTY LIMITED. WHAT THIS DOES
MEAN IS MY POP FORECAST CONSISTS OF A PRETTY TIGHT GRADIENT ACROSS
THE AREA ON FRIDAY. COORDINATION WITH HUN/MRX ALLOWED ME TO
ELIMINATE SOME OF THE STRAY WPC QPF ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST
DURING THE 06-18Z TIME FRAME ON FRIDAY.
(DEEP BREATH)
STORMS SHOULD EXIT MIDDLE TN FRIDAY NIGHT AND IN THEIR WAKE, WE
DON'T GET A BIG COOL DOWN (BREAK FOR CELEBRATORY CHEERS).
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN THE 70S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, MAKING FOR A
VERY NICE WEEKEND. MODELS HAVE BEEN DECENTLY IN AGREEMENT WITH RAIN
CHANCES RETURNING SUNDAY NIGHT, BUT THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM IS
STILL QUITE IN DISARRAY. FOR NOW, WE'LL CARRY A DECENT CHANCE FOR
JUST RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 643 PM CDT TUE MAR 21 2023
SHOWERS WILL IMPACT MIDDLE TENNESSEE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT AND
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY END FROM WEST TO
EAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL DECREASE TO MVFR WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH TEMPORARY REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITIES WITH HEAVIER
SHOWERS. MVFR CIGS MAY IMPROVE TO VFR AT THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD, BUT WILL LIKELY WAIT UNTIL AFTER THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS
WILL BE SOUTHERLY FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
AROUND 10 KTS BY MID MORNING WITH SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS FROM
LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 49 65 56 79 / 90 80 0 0
CLARKSVILLE 47 65 57 78 / 90 60 10 10
CROSSVILLE 42 57 49 74 / 90 90 10 0
COLUMBIA 47 64 54 78 / 80 90 0 0
COOKEVILLE 45 60 53 76 / 90 90 10 0
JAMESTOWN 42 57 50 75 / 90 90 0 0
LAWRENCEBURG 47 62 54 78 / 80 90 10 0
MURFREESBORO 47 62 54 79 / 80 90 0 0
WAVERLY 45 65 57 77 / 90 60 0 10
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE.......ROSE
SHORT TERM...UNGER
LONG TERM....UNGER
AVIATION.....REAGAN
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