084
FXUS64 KOHX 310513
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1213 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1212 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2026
- HOT WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S WEST OF THE PLATEAU THIS
WEEK.
- MAJOR TO EXTREME HEAT RISK IS EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE TRIPLE DIGITS.
- VERY LOW RAIN CHANCES THROUGH MIDWEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1037 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2026
HEAT WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN THIS WEEK AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL BRING AN EXTENDED PERIOD
OF LATE SUMMER HEAT. WIDESPREAD MAJOR HEAT RISK WILL DEVELOP BY
TUESDAY AND BECOME MAJOR TO EXTREME WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. IF
YOU ARE OUTSIDE THIS WEEK FOR EXTENDED PERIODS OF TIME IT WILL BE
IMPORTANT TO TAKE HEAT PRECAUTIONS BY STAYING HYDRATED AND TAKING
FREQUENT BREAKS IN A COOL PLACE.
HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL WARM A FEW MORE DEGREES COMPARED TO SUNDAY
WITH MORE WIDESPREAD MID 90S. WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 70S WE WILL
SEE AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES PUSH INTO THE TRIPLE DIGITS. WE
SAW SOME VERY WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOP ON SUNDAY AND WE
WILL SEE A SIMILAR THREAT ON MONDAY, CHANCES WILL BE LESS THAN
15%. THERE WILL BE A WEAK CAP BETWEEN 700 AND 650 MB KEEPING MUCH
OF THE AREAS DRY. WITH PWATS ABOVE 1.60" HEAVY RAIN WILL BE
LIKELY UNDER ANY SHOWERS THAT DO DEVELOP. WE WILL ADD A FEW MORE
DEGREES TO OUR HIGHS ON TUESDAY AS THE AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CENTERS OVER MIDDLE TN. AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL GET AS
HOT AS 105. THE SUBSTANCE INVERSION WILL STRENGTHEN AROUND 750 MB
KEEPING RAIN CHANCES VERY LOW. LOWS WILL BE MILD THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD ONLY FALLING INTO THE 70S.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1037 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2026
THE HEAT LOOKS TO PEAK ON WEDNESDAY BUT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN HOT
INTO THE END OF THE WEEK. HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER
90S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES AS HOT AS 107. A
LOW LEVEL CAP LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE KEEPING RAIN CHANCES VERY
LOW. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN LATE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND AND BUILD BACK WEST. THIS WILL BRING SOME COOLING STARTING
FRIDAY WITH ADDITIONAL COOLING OVER THE WEEKEND. AS THE RIDGE
BREAKS DOWN RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY BUT OVERALL
FORCING WILL BE WEAK KEEPING THE CHANCES LOW.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1212 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2026
VFR TAFS PERSIST AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
SOUTHERLY PREVAILING WINDS AND AFTERNOON CU. VERY LOW CHANCES FOR
ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS AFTER 18Z.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 95 74 97 74 / 10 0 0 0
CLARKSVILLE 94 72 96 73 / 0 0 0 0
CROSSVILLE 89 69 91 70 / 10 0 0 0
COLUMBIA 95 72 97 73 / 10 0 0 0
COOKEVILLE 91 71 92 72 / 10 0 0 0
JAMESTOWN 89 70 91 71 / 10 0 0 0
LAWRENCEBURG 93 71 95 72 / 10 0 0 0
MURFREESBORO 96 72 98 73 / 10 0 0 0
WAVERLY 94 72 96 73 / 0 0 0 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...MUELLER
LONG TERM....MUELLER
AVIATION.....CRAVENS
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