949
FXUS64 KOHX 141730
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1230 PM CDT FRI AUG 14 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1227 PM CDT FRI AUG 14 2026
- DANGEROUS HEAT IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH TRIPLE DIGIT
HEAT INDICES ACROSS MOST OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE. THIS IS RESULTING
MAJOR TO EXTREME RISK FOR HEAT-RELATED ILLNESSES.
- ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY, MAINLY EAST OF I-65. ANY
STRONGER STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND
HEAVY RAIN.
- THOUGH THERE MAY BE A SLIGHT DECREASE IN HEAT RISK NEXT WEEK,
TEMPERATURES ABOVE-NORMAL ARE FAVORED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1155 AM CDT FRI AUG 14 2026
THE FURNACE IS STILL RUNNING ACROSS THE REGION, AND THE OFF SWITCH
IS NOWHERE IN SIGHT UNFORTUNATELY. DEEP-LAYER RIDGING CONTINUES TO
STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST US WHICH IS FAVORING
A HOT SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZE ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE. HUMIDITY
LEVELS REMAIN ELEVATED WHICH IS RESULTING IN HEAT INDEX VALUES IN
THE 105-112 DEGREE RANGE. RISK FOR HEAT-RELATED ILLNESSES IS
RUNNING IN THE MAJOR TO EXTREME LEVELS (3 AND 4 ON A SCALE TO 4)
ACROSS ALL OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. THIS IS MADE
WORSE BY THE LONG-DURATION NATURE OF THE HEAT WAVE AND LIMITED
RELIEF OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AREAS. AS A RESULT, AN
EXTREME HEAT WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR AREAS WEST OF THE
CUMBERLAND PLATEAU THROUGH SUNDAY. THE REST OF THE HIGH TERRAIN
AREAS HAVE BEEN ADDED TO THE EXISTING HEAT ADVISORY THROUGH
SUNDAY. THOUGH MANY MAY ARGUE "IT'S ALWAYS HOT IN AUGUST", IT'S
IMPORTANT TO REMEMBER THAT OUR TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING 5-10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, NOT EVERYONE IS HAS REASONABLE ACCESS TO
AC, AND HEAT IS THE #1 WEATHER-RELATED KILLER IN THE US.
UNFORTUNATELY POPS REMAIN LOW OVERALL, SO RELIEF FROM RAIN-COOLED
AIR IS LOOKING VERY SPARSE AND MAINLY FOR TODAY GENERALLY EAST OF
I-65 WHERE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE FORECAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NOT LOOKING AT MUCH ACTIVITY FOR TOMORROW
ON LATEST GUIDANCE.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1155 AM CDT FRI AUG 14 2026
EXCESSIVE HEAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH
SUNDAY. IN FACT, THEY MAY PERSIST INTO MONDAY, PARTICULARLY FOR
AREAS ALONG I-40 AND SOUTH. EAT-RELATED HEADLINES MAY BE EXTENDED
INTO MONDAY AT SOME POINT THIS WEEKEND. SOME DECLINE IN
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST STARTING MONDAY ACROSS THE NORTH AND
INTO TUESDAY FOR THE WHOLE AREA AS RIDGING SHIFTS SOUTHWESTWARD.
THIS MAY OPEN THE DOOR FOR A FEW MORE THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING MONDAY AT LEAST, BUT OVERALL TEMPERATURE
TRENDS REMAIN IN THE ABOVE-NORMAL CATEGORY THROUGH THE ENTIRE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN/STORMS MOST DAYS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT FRI AUG 14 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, WITH WINDS
DECREASING TO VARIABLE OVERNIGHT, AND PICKING BACK UP OUT OF THE
WEST/NORTHWEST AROUND 15Z SATURDAY. FEW TO SCT CEILINGS AT 250
EXPECTED FOR MAJORITY OF THE TAF PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 76 98 76 100 / 0 0 0 0
CLARKSVILLE 76 98 75 99 / 0 0 0 0
CROSSVILLE 72 90 72 91 / 10 10 10 0
COLUMBIA 75 99 75 101 / 0 0 0 0
COOKEVILLE 73 92 73 94 / 10 10 0 0
JAMESTOWN 72 91 72 92 / 10 10 0 0
LAWRENCEBURG 74 97 74 99 / 10 0 0 0
MURFREESBORO 75 99 75 101 / 10 0 0 0
WAVERLY 75 99 75 99 / 0 0 0 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR TNZ005>008-
023>030-056>064-075-093>095.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR TNZ011-034-065-066-079-
080.
SHORT TERM...SIZEMORE
LONG TERM....SIZEMORE
AVIATION.....HOLLEY
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