909
FXUS64 KOHX 020726 CCA
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
126 AM CST MON MAR 2 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1124 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2026
- LIGHT SHOWERS TONIGHT AND MONDAY, MAINLY NORTH OF I-40.
- WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.
- AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN DEVELOPS LATE WEEK WITH MEDIUM TO
HIGH RAIN CHANCES. THE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS IS VERY LOW.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 949 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2026
THE EVENING SOUNDING FROM OHX SHOWS A STABLE ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE
WITH RELATIVELY DRY AIR FROM THE SURFACE UP TO ALMOST 700 MB. THE
88D IS NOW PICKING UP SOME LIGHT ECHOES EAST OF THE TENNESSEE
RIVER, BUT WITH DEW POINT SPREADS STILL RATHER LARGE (15-20F), IT
IS UNLIKELY THAT MUCH OF THESE ECHOES ARE ACTUALLY REACHING THE
GROUND. BUT THAT WILL CHANGE AS AN INVERTED TROUGH APPROACHES
MIDDLE TENNESSEE FROM THE WEST AND PUSHES A POOL OF DEEPER MOISTURE
ACROSS THE REGION AND PRODUCES MORE WIDESPREAD (BUT MAINLY LIGHT)
ACTIVITY DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. MOST OF THE QPF IS GOING TO
OCCUR NORTH OF I-40, BUT EVEN THEN THE AMOUNTS ARE GOING TO
REMAIN MENIAL. RAIN CHANCES WILL TAPER OFF TOMORROW NIGHT AS A
WARM FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY TO OUR SOUTH INCHES ITS WAY NORTHWARD
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY MID-DAY TUESDAY. THIS MEANS TEMPERATURES
ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE WILL CONTINUE TO WARM UP DURING SUCCEEDING
DAYS.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 949 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2026
THE NEXT ACTIVE WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BEGIN PRODUCING SHOWERS AND
MAYBE A FEW STORMS ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE CENTER DRAGS A COLD FRONT
CLOSE TO MIDDLE TENNESSEE BUT NOT ACTUALLY THROUGH THE MID STATE.
THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED AS WE HEAD INTO THE
WEEKEND, WITH THE NBM GIVING US MEDIUM TO HIGH RAIN CHANCES FROM
SATURDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, AND SOME POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL AT TIMES. INDIVIDUAL MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE
CONSIDERABLY BEGINNING, SAY, NEXT MONDAY SO IT IS UNCLEAR WHEN WE
MIGHT SEE ANY SORT OF PATTERN SHIFT. BUT IT PROBABLY WON'T HAPPEN
ANY TIME SOON, AS BOTH THE 6-10 DAY AND 8-14 DAY OUTLOOKS FAVOR
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL ACROSS MIDDLE
TENNESSEE. DESPITE THE UNSEASONAL WARMTH AND UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN EXPECTED TO SET UP LATER THIS WEEK, THE RISK OF SEVERE
STORMS REMAINS VERY LOW THROUGH AT LEAST DAY 8.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1124 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2026
SHOWERS TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. SCATTERED IN NATURE WITH LIGHT
RAIN. MODELS ARE TRENDING CIGS HIGHER WITH LATEST RUNS, KEEPING
MOST TERMINALS VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. NW PORTIONS OF MIDDLE TN,
INCLUDING CKV, HAVE BETTER CHANCES TO SEE LOWER CIGS AFTER 12Z
MONDAY. MODELS SUGGEST MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS STICKING
UPDATE.......ROSEAROUND
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD WHILE THE REMAINING TERMINALS REMAIN
LARGELY VFR. AS THE BOUNDARY LIFTS TOMORROW, WINDS WILL VARY
BASED ON LOCATION. PREDOMINATELY NE WINDS TONIGHT, BUT AREAS SOUTH
OF I-40 TURN S THROUGH TOMORROW WHILE AREAS N OF I-40 BECOME ENE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 46 67 54 76 / 60 50 20 10
CLARKSVILLE 43 58 50 76 / 70 80 30 10
CROSSVILLE 45 64 50 66 / 60 50 10 10
COLUMBIA 48 70 55 76 / 50 30 20 10
COOKEVILLE 46 65 53 70 / 60 40 10 20
JAMESTOWN 41 61 50 67 / 70 60 10 10
LAWRENCEBURG 49 71 55 75 / 40 20 10 10
MURFREESBORO 48 70 55 75 / 50 30 20 20
WAVERLY 46 63 53 76 / 70 70 30 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM....ROSE
AVIATION.....CRAVENS
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