453
FXUS64 KOHX 210459
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1159 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1153 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2026
- MEDIUM TO HIGH RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE EACH DAY THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
- RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2-3 INCHES THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH A
MEDIUM CHANCE OF LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS. SOME LOCALIZED
FLOODING CONCERNS WILL BE POSSIBLE, BUT WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS
NOT EXPECTED.
- TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1032 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2026
AS IS APPARENT IN REGIONAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS, THE FRONT
RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR RAIN OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS HAS SAGGED ALL THE
WAY INTO ALABAMA. SURFACE WINDS ARE OUT OF THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION. THAT HASN'T MADE A DENT IN DEW POINTS HOWEVER,
AS DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS REMAIN WELL OFF TO OUR NORTH.
MRMS RAINFALL ESTIMATES ACROSS MIDDLE TN OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS
ARE VERY POSITIVE. IN FACT, IT LOOKS LIKE EVERYONE GOT
*SOME* RAIN. THERE WERE POCKETS OF LESS FORTUNATE AREAS, BUT
SEVERAL SAW 3+ INCHES SINCE THIS TIME LAST NIGHT. THIS IS GOING TO
GO A LONG WAY TO ALLEVIATE OUR CURRENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS. KNOW
WHAT ELSE IS? MEDIUM TO HIGH RAIN CHANCES OVER THE NEXT 5-6 DAYS.
WHILE SOME LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN CONTINUES AT FORECAST TIME, WE
SHOULD BE RELATIVELY QUIET FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. HOWEVER, AS WE
GET INTO THE MORNING HOURS TOMORROW, WEAK MID AND UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSES WILL TRAVERSE THE REGION. WHILE THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE
NORTHERLY, AS I SAID EARLIER, THERE'S STILL PLENTY OF MOISTURE
AROUND. THE COMBINATION OF THESE WILL SPARK ADDITIONAL SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE THREAT OF ANY SEVERE STORMS IS VERY
LOW TOMORROW, BUT THE LAST 24 HOURS HAS PRIMED THE PUMP FOR
LOCALIZED FLOODING ISSUES, ESPECIALLY IF THE SAME AREAS GET RAIN
TOMORROW AS TODAY. THIS IS GOING TO BE THE CASE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.
BY TOMORROW NIGHT, A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH THROUGH
THE MID-STATE AND WITH MEDIUM TO HIGH STORM CHANCES ON FRIDAY,
CURRENT CAMS ARE SUGGESTING A MARGINAL WIND THREAT, ESPECIALLY IN
THE AFTERNOON. WITH PWS CONTINUING TO RUN HIGH, NOT ONLY WILL
THERE WILL A LOW WIND THREAT, ADDITIONAL MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1032 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2026
THIS LEVEL OF RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE RIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND.
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT WHILE THERE COULD BE A LULL
SATURDAY EVENING/NIGHT, ANOTHER IMPULSE WILL BRING HIGH RAIN CHANCES
BACK TO THE AREA ON SUNDAY. BOTTOM LINE HERE IS, THIS IS GOING TO BE
THE CASE THROUGH THIS TIME NEXT WEEK WITH AT LEAST DAILY CHANCES OF
RAIN. STINKY FOR OUTDOOR PLANS, ESPECIALLY ON A HOLIDAY WEEKEND, BUT
WE NEED THIS RAIN BADLY ACROSS THE AREA. FORTUNATELY, TEMPERATURES
WILL BE MANAGEABLE, BUT WITH THE RAIN COMES HUMIDITY, SO THE AIR
THROUGH THE MIDDLE NEXT WEEK WILL FEEL MUCH DIFFERENT THAN RECENT
WEEKS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1153 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2026
A MESSY AND VARIABLE LATE NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING IS EXPECTED.
CONDITIONS WILL COMMONLY VARY FROM MVFR TO IFR WITH OCNL LIFR IN
AREAS OF MIST, DRIZZLE, AND SHOWERS. THE 12Z-18Z TIMEFRAME WILL
FEATURE MOSTLY IFR WITH IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR TOWARD 18Z. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. OUTSIDE ANY STORMS, WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE,
MOSTLY FROM THE EAST.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 63 79 63 79 / 70 70 70 100
CLARKSVILLE 60 77 62 78 / 50 40 80 90
CROSSVILLE 60 74 60 76 / 80 90 70 90
COLUMBIA 62 79 63 79 / 80 70 80 90
COOKEVILLE 62 76 62 78 / 70 90 60 90
JAMESTOWN 60 75 60 78 / 70 100 70 90
LAWRENCEBURG 63 77 63 78 / 80 70 80 90
MURFREESBORO 63 79 63 80 / 70 80 70 90
WAVERLY 61 78 64 78 / 50 40 80 90
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...UNGER
LONG TERM....UNGER
AVIATION.....13
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