323
FXUS64 KOHX 281719
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1219 PM CDT MON SEP 28 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1218 PM CDT MON SEP 28 2026
- WARMING WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY MIDWEEK WITH HIGHS REACHING THE
80S TO LOWER 90S.
- LOW TO MEDIUM SHOWER CHANCES DEVELOP BY FRIDAY, THEN INCREASING
RAIN CHANCES THIS WEEKEND.
- HIGH CHANCE FOR MORE THAN 1 INCH OF RAIN THIS WEEKEND WITH THE
HEAVIEST RAIN EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1140 AM CDT MON SEP 28 2026
WE ARE STILL SITTING PRETTY THIS MONDAY MORNING WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE KEEPING OUR WX EXCEPTIONALLY PLEASANT AND DRY. ON THE
REGIONAL MAPS, A WEAKENING STORM SYSTEM REMAINED IN PLACE ALONG
THE NORTHEAST COAST WITH A RIDGE AXIS JUST TO OUR WEST.
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, THE COASTAL STORM WILL CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN AND MOVE FARTHER AWAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS BUILDS OVER THE TN
VALLEY. THIS WILL BRING A BIG WARMUP WITH HIGHS CLIMBING WELL
INTO THE 80S FOR TUESDAY, AND 80S TO LOWER 90S WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. WE ARE NOT LOOKING FOR RECORD HIGHS AT THIS POINT, BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. OVERNIGHT LOWS
THAT HAVE BEEN IN THE 40S AND 50S WILL WARM INTO THE 60S. ALONG
WITH THE WARMTH, SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL DEVELOP, BRINGING
INCREASING HUMIDITY INTO THE AREA.
WITH SEPTEMBER ENDING WEDNESDAY, WE ARE ON TRACK FOR THE WARMEST
AND DRIEST SEPTEMBER ON RECORD FOR NASHVILLE.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1140 AM CDT MON SEP 28 2026
ONE BIG WEATHER SWITCH FLIPPED LAST WEEK WHEN WE HAD THE END OF
100 DEGREE DAYS AND COOLED DOWN TO NORMAL. ANOTHER BIG SWITCH WILL
FLIP LATE THIS WEEK AS ABUNDANT ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE SURGES INTO
THE AREA. WE ARE STARTING THE WEEK WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
AROUND THE 10TH PERCENTILE, BUT BY SATURDAY, WE WILL BE AROUND
THE 95TH PERCENTILE. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A RAINY WEEKEND.
SEVERAL SYSTEMS ARE COMING TOGETHER TO BRING THE SUDDENLY
UNSETTLED PATTERN. THE FIRST WILL BE A DISTURBANCE WITH A POCKET
OF TROPICAL MOISTURE COMING UP FROM THE GULF. THE NEXT WILL BE A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AND FRONT. FINALLY, THE BIGGEST FEATURE
WILL BE A BIG SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COMING FROM THE
WEST. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE PRE-LOADED WITH PACIFIC TROPICAL
MOISTURE. THE INTERPLAY OF THESE SYSTEMS WILL MAKE FOR A COMPLEX
SETUP DETERMINING EXACTLY WHEN AND HOW MUCH RAIN WE GET.
ALTHOUGH THERE ARE MODEL UNCERTAINTIES ABOUT THE EVOLUTION OF THIS
WEEKEND'S RAIN AND HOW MUCH WE WILL RECEIVE, GEFS/ENS/GEPS
ENSEMBLES ARE POINTING TOWARD A SOAKING RAINFALL WITH MORE THAN 1
INCH LIKELY. THERE IS A 40 PERCENT CHANCE FOR MORE THAN 2 INCHES
AND A 20 PERCENT CHANCE FOR MORE THAN 3 INCHES. RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED TO BE SHOWERY WITH LIMITED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY, BUT
SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS MAY OCCUR, ESPECIALLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE A LOT OF
RAIN, BUT WE WILL BE WATCHING FOR LOCALIZED FLOOD POTENTIAL IF
SOME HEAVY BANDS SET UP.
EVENTUALLY THE NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL DROP A FRONT THROUGH
THE AREA, SWEEPING OUT THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL. THIS MAY BE SUNDAY
OR MONDAY. IT LOOKS LIKE COOLER AIR WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT, PERHAPS
WITH SOME POST-FRONTAL GLOOMY SKIES TO START NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1218 PM CDT MON SEP 28 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 54 87 59 91 / 0 0 0 0
CLARKSVILLE 52 87 57 92 / 0 0 0 0
CROSSVILLE 49 81 54 83 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBIA 50 88 56 92 / 0 0 0 0
COOKEVILLE 51 82 58 87 / 0 0 0 0
JAMESTOWN 51 81 56 84 / 0 0 0 0
LAWRENCEBURG 50 87 56 90 / 0 0 0 0
MURFREESBORO 51 88 57 93 / 0 0 0 0
WAVERLY 53 83 58 89 / 0 0 0 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION.....CAHILL
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