694
FXUS64 KOHX 081621
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1121 AM CDT SAT AUG 8 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1120 AM CDT SAT AUG 8 2026
- SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
FORM EACH DAY. HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH LOCAL FLASH FLOODING WILL
BE THE MAIN CONCERN.
- A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50
MPH AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. THIS COULD BRING DOWN A FEW LIMBS
AND CAUSE SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES. WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS ARE
NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
- HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL REACH THE UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S EACH
DAY. SOME AREAS COULD HAVE HEAT INDEX VALUES TOPPING 105 AT
TIMES NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1120 AM CDT SAT AUG 8 2026
IT WILL BE ANOTHER HOT, HUMID, AND UNSETTLED DAY WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS. OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS, OUR NORTHWEST
COUNTIES HAVE NOT SEEN ANY STORMS, BUT TODAY WILL BE DIFFERENT. WE
EXPECT STORMS TO BE SCATTERED ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA (40 TO 60
PERCENT CHANCES) AS A DISTURBANCE COMES IN FROM THE WEST, WORKING
WITH ALREADY UNSTABLE AND HUMID CONDITIONS IN PLACE. THE STORM
PARAMETERS ARE VERY SIMILAR TO THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. NOT
EVERYBODY WILL GET RAIN, BUT SOME OF US WILL GET TOO MUCH IN A
SHORT PERIOD OF TIME RESULTING IN SMALL POCKETS OF FLASH FLOODING.
THE STRONGER STORMS WILL CONTAIN 40 TO 50 MPH GUSTS AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING. IN SUMMER STORMS, IT IS NOT UNCOMMON TO SEE A FEW
FALLING LIMBS AND SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES. STORMS WILL POP UP
QUICKLY, SO IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS AND SKIES DARKEN, IT WOULD BE A
GOOD IDEA TO MOVE TO SHELTER QUICKLY.
STORMS WILL TAPER OFF THIS EVENING, BUT THANKS TO SOME ENERGY FROM
THE DISTURBANCE, MAYBE NOT QUITE AS QUICKLY AS THE PAST COUPLE OF
EVENINGS. AREAS THAT RECEIVE RAIN ARE LIKELY TO HAVE LATE NIGHT
FOG.
COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL BE A LITTLE LESS SUNDAY (20 TO 50 PERCENT),
BUT OVERALL STILL THE SAME SCENARIO WITH POCKETS OF LOCAL
FLOODING AND GUSTY WINDS WHERE STORMS OCCUR.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1120 AM CDT SAT AUG 8 2026
HEADING INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY, UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BECOME
A LITTLE STRONGER AS THE BIG, HOT RIDGE FROM OUT WEST BRIDGES
ACROSS TO THE PERSISTENT BERMUDA HIGH. THIS WILL BUMP TEMPERATURES
UP A LITTLE WHILE SLIGHTLY REDUCING SHOWER AND STORM COVERAGE (10
PERCENT NORTHWEST TO 40 PERCENT SOUTHEAST). HEAT INDEX VALUES
LOOK MARGINAL FOR HEAT HEADLINES, BUT CAUTION IS ADVISED WITH HEAT
RISK LEVELS REACHING LEVEL 3 OUT OF 4 (MAJOR) FOR MOST AREAS.
HEAT HEADLINES MAY BE ISSUED FOR SOME AREAS WEST OF THE PLATEAU
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS IF FORECAST DATA TREND HOTTER.
GOING THROUGH THE WEEK, IT WILL STAY HOT AND HUMID WITH DAILY
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. THERE ARE SOME IMPORTANT MODEL
DIFFERENCES THAT COULD IMPACT THE FORECAST LATE WEEK. LOOKING AT
LREF CLUSTERING DATA, WE SEE BIG DIFFERENCES EMERGING BETWEEN THE
GFS AND ECMWF GROUPS. THE GFS IS TRENDING TOWARD A BROAD EASTERN
TROUGH WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR INCREASED STORMINESS AND LESS HEAT WHILE
THE ECMWF CAMP IS BUILDING UP THE RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
STATES AND TN VALLEY. THIS WOULD MEAN LOWER STORM CHANCES AND
HOTTER CONDITIONS WITH TEMPS WELL INTO THE 90S. TIME WILL TELL,
BUT NEITHER SCENARIO WOULD BE TERRIBLY OUT OF LINE FOR AUGUST.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 621 AM CDT SAT AUG 8 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT TAF SITES FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE
PERIOD. LATER IN THE AFTERNOON, TSRA WILL BECOME AN ISSUE FOR ALL
TAF SITES AS WE HAVE ANOTHER DAY OF SCATTERED TSRA ACROSS MIDDLE
TENNESSEE. WINDS WILL STAY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS AND OUT OF THE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST. INTO TOMORROW MORNING, FG WILL DEVELOP AT MOST
TAF SITES, PUSHING THINGS INTO MVFR OR LOWER CATEGORY FOR THE
MORNING HOURS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 91 73 91 74 / 50 30 30 10
CLARKSVILLE 91 72 91 73 / 40 30 10 0
CROSSVILLE 84 67 85 68 / 70 20 60 20
COLUMBIA 90 71 90 72 / 60 20 40 20
COOKEVILLE 86 70 86 70 / 60 20 50 10
JAMESTOWN 86 68 86 69 / 50 20 40 10
LAWRENCEBURG 88 70 88 71 / 60 30 50 20
MURFREESBORO 91 72 90 72 / 60 20 40 20
WAVERLY 90 72 90 72 / 40 30 20 10
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION.....HOLLEY
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page