534
FXUS64 KOHX 270416
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1116 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1052 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2026
- THERE ARE MEDIUM TO HIGH RAIN AND STORM CHANCES SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT. HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN. A FLOOD
WATCH IS IN EFFECT ACROSS NORTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE.
- THERE IS A LOW SEVERE WEATHER THREAT (LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5)
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT, MAINLY FOR STRONG TO DAMAGING
WINDS.
- DANGEROUS HEAT IS EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK
WITH TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT INDICES EXPECTED ON A DAILY BASIS.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1052 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2026
ONLY A FEW LIGHT ECHOES ARE SHOWING UP ON RADAR ACROSS MIDDLE
TENNESSEE, ALTHOUGH THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS UNSTABLE AND MOISTURE-
LADEN. THE EVENING SOUNDING FROM OHX DID SHOW A SBCAPE VALUE OF
NEARLY 1,700 J/KG WITH A LIFTED INDEX OF -5. THE PRECIPITABLE
WATER OF 1.80" IS CLOSE TO THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS DATE
CLIMATOLOGICALLY. AND THE 0-3 STORM-RELATIVE HELICITY HAS
INCREASED TO 152, ALTHOUGH THIS IS DUE MAINLY TO SPEED SHEAR, AS
THE LOW-LEVEL WIND PROFILE IS NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL. THE 700-500
MB LAPSE RATE IS RATHER ANEMIC -- JUST 5.5 C/KM -- AND THIS WOULD
TEND TO LIMIT THE ATMOSPHERE'S POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE-TYPE
UPDRAFTS. THERE ISN'T LIKELY TO BE ANY AIR MASS CHANGE DURING THE
NEXT 24+ HOURS, SO WE CAN DEFINITELY SAY THAT THE ENVIRONMENT IS
INDEED SUPPORTIVE OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT, AND THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR VERY HIGH RAINFALL RATES WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS, BUT
ANY ACTUAL SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE NO MORE THAN ISOLATED IN
COVERAGE. WITH THAT SAID, A SURFACE BOUNDARY CURRENTLY SITUATED TO
OUR NORTH IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTHWARD JUST ENOUGH FOR
WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE MID STATE FROM EARLY SATURDAY, THROUGH THE DAY, TOMORROW
NIGHT, AND POSSIBLY INTO SUNDAY MORNING (MAINLY JUST ALONG THE
CUMBERLAND PLATEAU BY THEN). THERE IS A RATHER LARGE POP GRADIENT
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE MID STATE, AND STORM TOTAL QPF
VALUES SIMILARLY RANGE FROM MORE THAN AN INCH OVER PORTIONS OF THE
CUMBERLAND PLATEAU NEAR THE KY STATE LINE, TO LESS THAN 1/4" IN
AREAS ALONG THE AL STATE LINE. OUR WEEKEND ACTIVE WEATHER SYSTEM
WILL FINALLY PULL EAST OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE LATER ON SUNDAY, TO BE
REPLACED WITH A BROAD AND PERSISTENT CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT
WILL KEEP US HOT AND DRY FOR A PROLONGED STRETCH GOING FORWARD.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1052 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2026
RAIN CHANCES FROM MONDAY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK ARE VERY
LOW. WE DON'T EXPECT MUCH ACTIVE WEATHER AFTER THIS WEEKEND.
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM MONDAY ONWARD ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH THE MID AND UPPER 90S MOST LOCATIONS WEST OF THE CUMBERLAND
PLATEAU, AND LOW 90S WILL BE COMMON EVEN AT THOSE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. THIS MEANS WE CAN EXPECT HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE
TRIPLE DIGITS ACROSS A BROAD SWATH OF THE MID STATE, WHICH WILL
PRESENT US WITH A SIGNIFICANT HEAT RISK AND THE PROSPECT OF A
MULTI-DAY HEAT ADVISORY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 6 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2026
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE TOMORROW WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES
BEING IN THE LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING ALONG AND NORTH OF I-40.
ANY THUNDERSTORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL, WHICH COULD CAUSE TEMPORARY REDUCTIONS IN VIS
AND CIGS. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SW AT 5-10 KT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 75 87 73 93 / 30 90 80 20
CLARKSVILLE 74 85 73 93 / 60 90 50 10
CROSSVILLE 70 81 68 85 / 20 90 80 50
COLUMBIA 75 88 73 93 / 20 70 50 10
COOKEVILLE 71 82 70 88 / 30 90 90 40
JAMESTOWN 69 81 67 86 / 40 90 80 50
LAWRENCEBURG 74 86 72 91 / 10 60 50 10
MURFREESBORO 74 87 72 94 / 20 80 80 20
WAVERLY 74 85 72 93 / 50 90 40 10
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 AM CDT SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
TNZ005>011-023>034-059-062-064>066.
SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM....ROSE
AVIATION.....CAHILL
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