363
FXUS64 KOHX 061633
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1133 AM CDT SUN SEP 6 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1130 AM CDT SUN SEP 6 2026
- HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM TONIGHT
- SLIGHT RELIEF FROM THE HEAT ARRIVES TOMORROW BUT TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN ABOVE-NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD
- LOW RAIN CHANCES UNTIL LATE WEEK
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1130 AM CDT SUN SEP 6 2026
THE HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM TONIGHT WITH TRIPLE
DIGIT HEAT INDICES EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHWEST MIDDLE TN. A SURFACE
LOW IS LOCATED JUST TO OUR NORTH WITH A STALLED BOUNDARY DRAPED
ROUGHLY ALONG THE TN/KY BORDER. AS THIS BOUNDARY DRIFTS SOUTH
LATER TODAY, A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE
EAST OF I-65. WHILE SHEAR IS MEAGER, INSTABILITY WILL BE PLENTIFUL
AND THE KOHX 12Z SOUNDING RECORDED OVER 1,000 J/KG OF DCAPE.
THEREFORE, ALTHOUGH THE CHANCE FOR STORMS IS LOW, THERE'S
POTENTIAL FOR ANY STORM TO PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS.
A MORE PLEASANT TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS ON TAP FOR LABOR DAY WITH
HIGHS A FEW DEGREES COOLER IN THE MID-80S TO LOW-90S. THERE'S A LOW
TO MEDIUM CHANCE (30-40%) OF ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS EAST OF I-65 TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1130 AM CDT SUN SEP 6 2026
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY BUILD BACK TO THE UPPER-80S TO MID-
90S BY WEDNESDAY BUT POPS WILL REMAIN VERY LOW (< 10%) AS AN UPPER-
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHERN CONUS. AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE
ACROSS ONTARIO AND QUEBEC LATER THIS WEEK AND CAUSE A SURFACE
FRONT TO TRAVERSE MIDDLE TN ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL INTRODUCE OUR
HIGHEST POPS OF THE WEEK (45-60%) AND BRING A SLIGHT REDUCTION IN
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY (MID-80S TO LOW-90S). DAILY LOW TO MEDIUM
CHANCES (20-50%) FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LINGER THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 610 AM CDT SUN SEP 6 2026
VFR CONDITIONS AT MAJORITY OF TAF SITES FOR THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS
WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON, RESULTING IN WIND
GUSTS UP TO 15 KNOTS. WINDS WILL LESSEN TO 5-10 KNOTS AFTER 06Z OUT
OF THE NORTH.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 69 92 70 92 / 0 0 10 0
CLARKSVILLE 66 91 69 93 / 0 0 0 0
CROSSVILLE 63 85 63 85 / 0 30 10 0
COLUMBIA 68 93 69 94 / 0 10 0 0
COOKEVILLE 65 87 67 88 / 0 20 10 0
JAMESTOWN 64 86 65 86 / 0 20 10 0
LAWRENCEBURG 67 91 68 91 / 0 10 10 0
MURFREESBORO 68 94 69 94 / 0 10 10 0
WAVERLY 67 91 70 92 / 0 0 0 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TNZ056>058-060-061-
075-093>095.
SHORT TERM...CAHILL
LONG TERM....CAHILL
AVIATION.....HOLLEY
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