536
FXUS64 KOHX 011720
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1220 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1220 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2026
- A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR AREAS WEST OF THE CUMBERLAND
PLATEAU THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY NIGHT.
- MAJOR TO EXTREME HEAT RISK THIS WEEK WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES IN
THE TRIPLE DIGITS. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE
THE HOTTEST DAYS OF THE WEEK.
- VERY LOW RAIN CHANCES THROUGH MIDWEEK.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1153 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2026
MIDDLE TN IS IN THE MIDST OF AN EARLY FALL HEATWAVE, AS EVIDENCED BY
THIS MORNING'S UPPER AIR FLIGHTS. A STOUT 596 DAM RIDGE AT 500 MB IS
CENTERED OVER THE TN VALLEY, TRAPPING HOT, MOIST AIR UNDERNEATH IT.
THESE PATTERNS ARE NOTORIOUSLY DIFFICULT TO BREAK UP IN THE ABSENCE
OF A PROGRESSIVE SYNOPTIC PATTERN, MUCH LIKE WE ARE SEEING THIS
WEEK. AFTER COLLABORATING WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES, A LARGE HEAT
ADVISORY COVERS MUCH OF THE LOWER MS RIVER AND TN RIVER VALLEYS
STARTING AT 11AM WEDNESDAY. ALMOST ALL OF MIDDLE TN (MINUS THE
PLATEAU) IS INCLUDED AND CAN EXPECT WIDESPREAD HEAT INDICES ABOVE
105 DEGREES.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1153 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2026
EXPECT PROGRESSIVELY HOTTER CONDITIONS EACH DAY THIS WEEK,
ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE (50%) NASHVILLE'S
TEMPERATURE COULD REACH 100 DEGREES ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON. AS SUCH,
THIS HEAT ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. THE CUMBERLAND
PLATEAU IS CURRENTLY NOT INCLUDED BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE ON HEAT INDEX
OBSERVATIONS EACH DAY AND MAKE EXPANSIONS AS NEEDED.
LONG RANGE ENSEMBLE FORECASTS SUGGEST THIS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
RETROGRADE BACK OVER TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS SOME TIME OVER THE
WEEKEND, PROVIDING US WITH A LITTLE RELIEF IN THE FORM OF NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. THIS IS ONLY A BRIEF INTERMISSION FROM OPPRESSIVE HEAT,
AS THIS SAME RIDGING PATTERN SETS RIGHT BACK IN MID NEXT WEEK. WE'RE
LOOKING AT A HIGH CHANCE (80-90%) OF ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK FOR ALL OF MIDDLE TN.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR ALL TAF SITES THIS TAF PERIOD. WINDS
WILL RETURN TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE BETWEEN 0 AND 06Z FOR THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD, AND DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 75 99 76 99 / 0 0 0 0
CLARKSVILLE 73 98 74 99 / 0 0 0 0
CROSSVILLE 71 93 72 93 / 0 0 0 10
COLUMBIA 73 99 74 99 / 0 0 0 0
COOKEVILLE 73 95 73 96 / 0 0 0 10
JAMESTOWN 72 94 73 95 / 0 0 0 10
LAWRENCEBURG 73 97 74 97 / 0 0 0 0
MURFREESBORO 73 100 74 101 / 0 0 0 10
WAVERLY 74 98 75 98 / 0 0 0 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR
TNZ005>010-023>033-056>065-075-077-078-093>095.
SHORT TERM...DIRKES
LONG TERM....DIRKES
AVIATION.....HOLLEY
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