136
FXUS64 KOHX 260541
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1141 PM CST WED FEB 25 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1138 PM CST WED FEB 25 2026
- WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT, BUT NO
SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
- MILD TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1012 PM CST WED FEB 25 2026
A SHORTWAVE IS TRACKING THROUGH THE AREA WITH A BOUNDARY CURRENTLY
SITUATED JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF MIDDLE TN. WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW
ONGOING ALL DAY, MOISTURE ADVECTION HAS IMPROVED THE PWAT WITH THE
VALUE COMING IN AT 0.85" ON THIS EVENING'S SOUNDING. ALL OF THIS HAS
RESULTED IN WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY. HIGH RAIN CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT
TRACKS SOUTH THROUGH MIDDLE TN. RAIN WILL COME TO AN END FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHWEST BETWEEN 7AM AND 10AM WITH DRY CONDITIONS
RETURNING FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL BE
ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER, BUT NOT ENOUGH TO
WARRANT ANY CONCERNS FOR SEVERE WEATHER. BY THE TIME RAIN HAS COME
TO AN END THURSDAY MORNING, RAIN TOTALS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM
0.25 TO 0.50 INCHES ACROSS THE NORTHWEST TO 1 TO 1.5 INCHES ACROSS
THE EAST. AMOUNTS OF 2 INCHES AREN'T OUT OF THE QUESTION EITHER.
LATEST HREF PROBABILITIES OF 30-50% HIGHLIGHT THE CORRIDOR FROM
COOKEVILLE TO CROSSVILLE AS HAVING THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR THESE
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL WARM INTO THE MID-50S TO LOW-
60S. CLOUDS WILL STICK AROUND FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON, BUT WILL
GRADUALLY LESSEN IN COVERAGE IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. DRY
CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING UP. IT
SHOULD BE A GORGEOUS DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1012 PM CST WED FEB 25 2026
GORGEOUS WEATHER CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER-60S TO LOW-70S WITH LOTS OF SUNSHINE. BY SUNDAY, AN UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE TRACKING TO OUR NORTH, SENDING A COLD FRONT
SOUTH. MODEL VARIABILITY IN TEMPERATURES INCREASES ON SUNDAY DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY IN HOW FAR SOUTH THIS COOLER AIR GETS. THE COOLER SIDE
OF THIS FRONT LOOKS TO HAVE HIGHS IN THE 50S, BUT ON THE WARMER
SIDE, HIGHS WILL BE SIMILAR TO SATURDAY IN THE UPPER-60S TO LOW-70S.
OTHERWISE, THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE UNSETTLED THROUGH AT LEAST
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK WITH A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES, AND OFF-
AND-ON LOW TO MEDIUM RAIN CHANCES REENTER THE FORECAST LATE SUNDAY
INTO NEXT WEEK WITH MILD TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 60S
CONTINUING AS WE HEAD INTO MARCH.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CST WED FEB 25 2026
A SLOW-MOVING, EAST-WEST ORIENTED SURFACE BOUNDARY BISECTING
MIDDLE TENNESSEE CONTINUES TO PROVIDE THE FOCUS AND MOISTURE FOR
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND LOW CEILINGS. EXPECT POOR FLYING CONDITIONS
(MVFR/IFR) TO LAST THE NIGHT. THE BOUNDARY WILL FINALLY COME
THROUGH AS A COLD FRONT THURSDAY MORNING, SO LOOK FOR AN END TO
OUR RAIN CHANCES SHORTLY AFTER 12Z, ALTHOUGH LOW CEILINGS WILL
LIKELY STICK AROUND FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 48 61 39 66 / 100 50 0 0
CLARKSVILLE 44 59 36 66 / 100 30 0 0
CROSSVILLE 45 58 38 63 / 100 80 0 0
COLUMBIA 50 63 40 67 / 100 60 10 0
COOKEVILLE 46 58 38 63 / 100 70 0 0
JAMESTOWN 43 55 35 62 / 100 70 0 0
LAWRENCEBURG 50 63 40 66 / 100 70 10 0
MURFREESBORO 49 61 40 66 / 100 60 0 0
WAVERLY 46 61 38 66 / 90 30 0 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...CLEMENTS
LONG TERM....CLEMENTS
AVIATION.....ROSE
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