481
FXUS64 KOHX 191325
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
825 AM CDT WED AUG 19 2026
..NEW KEY MESSAGES
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 814 AM CDT WED AUG 19 2026
- SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OUT OF 5) FOR SEVERE STORMS TONIGHT IN THE
NORTHWEST. DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS.
THERE IS A VERY LOW TORNADO AND LARGE HAIL THREAT AS WELL.
- WARM AND MORE HUMID TODAY. HEAT INDICES WILL REACH THE LOW 100S
IN SOME AREAS GENERALLY WEST OF I-65.
- NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1044 PM CDT TUE AUG 18 2026
CLEAR SKIES CURRENTLY OVER THE MID-STATE, WITH LOWS IN THE 60S
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND TO START WEDNESDAY MORNING. CLOUD COVER WILL
INCREASE INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, AS A DECAYING MCS MAKES ITS WAY
TOWARDS THE AREA. SOME GUIDANCE SHOWS THE MCS MAKING IT INTO OUR
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES BEFORE FALLING APART, WHEREAS OTHERS SHOW IT
WILL STAY NORTH OF THE TN/KY STATE LINE. IF IT DOES MAKE IT INTO TN,
IT WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO OUR NW COUNTIES. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
MAKE THINGS MOIST IN THE AREA, PRIMING THE ATMOSPHERE FOR THE SEVERE
THREAT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID
90S.
WEDNESDAY EVENING, A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH MIDDLE TENNESSEE. A
700 MB JET WILL PICK UP AROUND THIS TIME AS WELL, LEADING TO
DESTABILIZATION AND POSSIBLY SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. BECAUSE
OF THIS JET, OUR MAIN HAZARD IS DAMAGING WINDS, BUT HEAVY RAINFALL
IS ALSO A THREAT. STORM MODE WITH THIS THREAT LOOKS TO BE CLUSTERS
OF STORMS, BUT SOME SUPERCELLS CANNOT BE RULED OUT (OUR TORNADO
THREAT IS VERY LOW).
THURSDAY THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE EAST BY MID-AFTERNOON, LEAVING US
WITH DRIER AIR AND HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1044 PM CDT TUE AUG 18 2026
TROUGHING IN THE UPPER LEVELS WILL LEAD TO MORE SHOWER CHANCES ON
FRIDAY, BUT WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME.
THESE RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO BE FAIRLY ISOLATED, THANKFULLY, AND THE
PATTERN TURNS DRY FOR THE WEEKEND. INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK
WEEK, WE REMAIN IN NW FLOW ALOFT, WHICH LOOKS TO BRING IN ISOLATED
RAIN CHANCES THROUGH MID-WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER
80S TO LOW 90S THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 620 AM CDT WED AUG 19 2026
WAITING ON MORNING FOG AT KCSV TO DISSIPATE, OTHERWISE, WE'LL BE
VFR THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH LIGHT/CALM WINDS. BY EVENING, A
SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE MID STATE, AND
THIS WILL HELP PROVIDE SOME FOCUSING FOR CONVECTION THAT IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY LATE EVENING OVER NORTHWEST MIDDLE
TENNESSEE, THEN SPREAD EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT AND INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. WE'VE STAGGERED PROB30 GROUPS ACCORDING TO
EXPECTED STORM MOVEMENT AND TIMING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 93 73 89 68 / 10 70 60 60
CLARKSVILLE 92 71 87 70 / 30 90 60 20
CROSSVILLE 89 68 85 66 / 0 40 80 60
COLUMBIA 95 73 91 71 / 10 50 50 60
COOKEVILLE 89 70 85 68 / 0 70 80 60
JAMESTOWN 88 68 84 66 / 0 70 90 70
LAWRENCEBURG 94 72 90 70 / 0 40 50 60
MURFREESBORO 95 72 90 70 / 0 70 60 60
WAVERLY 93 72 88 70 / 20 70 50 40
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...HOLLEY
LONG TERM....HOLLEY
AVIATION.....ROSE
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