720
FXUS64 KOHX 140521
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1221 AM CDT WED OCT 14 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1216 AM CDT WED OCT 14 2026
- WARM WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE-NORMAL.
RECORD HIGHS POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY.
- MEDIUM TO HIGH RAIN/STORM CHANCES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, PRIMARILY FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-40.
- A COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE ON FRIDAY BRINGING MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES INTO THIS WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1032 PM CDT TUE OCT 13 2026
ONCE AGAIN, HIGH PRESSURE IS RESULTING IN CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. UNFORTUNATELY, THIS ALSO MEANS WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MAKE RUNS AT TEMPERATURE RECORDS THROUGH MID-WEEK AS
WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE.
EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT IN THE 60S, WITH ANOTHER WARM DAY ON
TAP FOR WEDNESDAY. THERE ARE SOME DECENT RAIN CHANCES IN THE
FORECAST, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-40. WHILE A WETTING RAIN IS MORE
LIKELY (50-70% CHANCE OF AT LEAST A TENTH OF AN INCH), THERE IS A
LOW CHANCE OF SEEING AT LEAST HALF AN INCH OF RAIN IN THE NORTHWEST
PART OF OUR AREA (20-30%). THERE'S A LOW PROBABILITY OF A
THUNDERSTORM, BUT GIVEN ALL THE INSTABILITY FROM THE ABNORMALLY WARM
TEMPERATURES, IT CAN'T BE TOTALLY RULED OUT. HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN
BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND THE LOW 90S.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1032 PM CDT TUE OCT 13 2026
A COLD FRONT THAT LAGS BEHIND THE MID-WEEK MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO
SWING THROUGH AT THE END OF THE WEEKEND GIVE US A REAL TASTE OF
FALL. WE'RE LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE 60S/70S AND LOWS IN THE 30S AND
40S FOR THE WEEKEND. SUNDAY MORNING, WE COULD SEE OUR FIRST FROST OF
THE SEASON ON THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU. SADLY, IT WILL ONLY BE A TASTE
OF FALL, AS THE RETURN OF CLEARER SKIES WILL ALSO BRING BACK THE
HEAT. HIGHS BY MID-WEEK NEXT WEEK WILL CREEP BACK UP INTO
THE UPPER 70S.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1216 AM CDT WED OCT 14 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. INCREASING
CLOUDS FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND MAYBE A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. GUIDANCE AT THIS
POINT IS NOT IN LINE ENOUGH TO UPGRADE SHRA TO TSRA, BUT WILL BE
RE-EVALUATED FOR THE 12Z TAF. CHANCES OVERALL REMAIN AROUND 30% OR
LESS, SO PROB30S REMAIN IN THE TAF. REGARDLESS, ANY ACTIVITY THAT
OCCURS SHOULD DIMINISH TOMORROW NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER
03Z. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL SHIFT SOUTHWESTERLY
AFTER 15Z BETWEEN 5-10 KTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 90 68 91 63 / 20 20 10 0
CLARKSVILLE 88 68 91 61 / 70 30 10 0
CROSSVILLE 84 63 84 61 / 10 10 0 0
COLUMBIA 91 67 92 64 / 10 10 0 0
COOKEVILLE 86 66 86 63 / 10 10 10 0
JAMESTOWN 85 65 85 63 / 10 20 20 0
LAWRENCEBURG 90 66 91 63 / 0 10 0 0
MURFREESBORO 92 67 92 64 / 10 20 10 0
WAVERLY 86 68 89 62 / 50 20 10 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...HOLLEY
LONG TERM....HOLLEY
AVIATION.....BAGGETT
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page