971
FXUS64 KOHX 120031
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
731 PM CDT TUE AUG 11 2026
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 723 PM CDT TUE AUG 11 2026
- DANGEROUS HEAT EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH TRIPLE DIGIT
HEAT INDICES WEST OF THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU.
- LOW TO MEDIUM THUNDERSTORM CHANCES PRIMARILY EAST OF I-65 EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY. STRONGER STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 723 PM CDT TUE AUG 11 2026
CONVECTION HAS BEEN MOSTLY LIMITED TO SE KY AND NE TN THIS
EVENING. STORMS CONTINUE TO SURGE S, BUT ARE WEAKENING (SEEN BY
LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS). ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE
INTO E TN, WHERE SOME STORMS COULD DEVELOP E OF I-65 AND ACROSS
THE PLATEAU. GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS AND LATEST ACARS SOUNDINGS,
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR ANY SEVERE STORMS. GREAT RISK FOR ANY
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE ACROSS OUR FAR NE COUNTIES (PICKETT/FENTRESS
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS). OTHERWISE, ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH THROUGH THE LATE EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT.
WEDNESDAY BRINGS ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY WITH MEDIUM CHANCES FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE DAY.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1034 AM CDT TUE AUG 11 2026
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHEAST US THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK, ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES TO SOAR. HIGHS THIS
AFTERNOON AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY WILL REACH INTO THE MID-90S FOR AREAS
WEST OF THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S, IT'LL
FEEL HUMID WHICH MEANS THAT HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL GET INTO THE LOW
TRIPLE DIGITS BOTH AFTERNOONS. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WON'T COMPLETELY
SUPPRESS THUNDERSTORMS AS IT REMAINS TOO FAR SOUTH THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, LEAVING US IN NORTHWEST FLOW. NORTHWEST FLOW TYPICALLY
MEANS THAT THE DOOR IS OPEN FOR MCSS TO TRACK SOUTH/SOUTHEAST INTO
MIDDLE TN. MODELS DO SUGGEST THIS WITH CAMS SHOWING THE POTENTIAL
FOR AN MCS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND ANOTHER WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CAMS DO STRUGGLE TREMENDOUSLY IN THIS TYPE OF
PATTERN WITH RUNS THIS MORNING WAFFLING ON IF WE'LL SEE ANY STORMS
TODAY. IF THE DO HAPPEN, PLENTY OF INSTABILITY, DCAPE, AND
MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE TO THEM, GIVING ANY STORMS THE
OPPORTUNITY TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN. PRIMARY
THREAT WILL BE FOR AREAS EAST OF I-65. MARGINAL RISKS ARE IN
PLACE FOR BOTH TODAY AND TOMORROW TO HIGHLIGHT THIS CONDITIONAL
THREAT.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1034 AM CDT TUE AUG 11 2026
DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK, HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
TO BUILD NORTH, AND TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY GET HOTTER. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL GET INTO THE UPPER-90S FOR MANY LOCATIONS WEST
OF THE PLATEAU THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY, AND THEN WE MAY EVEN BE
TALKING ABOUT TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT BY SUNDAY. AT NASHVILLE, THE NBM
GIVES AN 80% CHANCE OF HITTING 100 DEGREES SUNDAY. EVEN IF WE
DON'T HIT TRIPLE DIGITS, THIS HEAT WAVE WILL STILL BE DANGEROUS.
THIS PROLONGED STRETCH OF HOT TEMPERATURES WILL MAKE FOR MAJOR TO
EXTREME HEAT RISK FOR ALL. SO BE SURE TO TAKE CARE OF YOURSELF AND
CHECK ON OTHERS WHO MAY BE MORE SENSITIVE TO HEAT. UNFORTUNATELY,
OVERNIGHT WON'T OFFER MUCH RELIEF WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO
UPPER-70S WITH HIGH HUMIDITY.
AS FAR AS RAIN GOES, THE MORE THIS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD,
THE MORE RAIN CHANCES GO DOWN. THERE ARE LOW RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY &
FRIDAY, BUT THE WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE DRY WHICH COINCIDES WITH THE
HOTTEST TEMPERATURES. THE HEAT SHOULD BREAK EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
THE HIGH MOVES WEST AND A BOUNDARY COMES DOWN FROM THE NORTH.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 631 PM CDT TUE AUG 11 2026
A VERY ACTIVE CONVECTIVE SCHEME IS ONGOING OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY,
SOON-TO-BE EASTERN TENNESSEE. GIVEN THE LACK OF VERIFICATION WITH
THE SHORT TERM MODELS AND THE STOUT EASTWARD MOTION, OPTED TO
LEAVE ALL BUT SRB AND CSV DRY IN THE NEAR TERM THROUGH TONIGHT.
WILL MONITOR FOR AMENDMENTS LATER TONIGHT IF NEEDED, ESPECIALLY
WITH THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY RACING TOWARD THE TN/KY STATE LINES. FOR
TOMORROW AFTERNOON, CAMS SHOW A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES PUSHING
THROUGH THE AIRSPACE AT MULTIPLE INCREMENTS. AS SUCH, INCLUDED
MORE PROB30S JUST TO ACCOUNT FOR THE UNCERTAINTY IN INTENSITY AND
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AT THAT TIME. VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL WITH
LIGHT S/SW WINDS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 75 95 76 96 / 40 30 30 10
CLARKSVILLE 75 94 76 95 / 30 20 30 0
CROSSVILLE 70 86 71 87 / 60 40 30 30
COLUMBIA 74 95 75 96 / 30 20 10 10
COOKEVILLE 71 88 72 90 / 60 50 20 20
JAMESTOWN 70 87 71 88 / 60 40 30 20
LAWRENCEBURG 73 92 74 93 / 30 30 20 10
MURFREESBORO 74 94 75 95 / 40 30 30 10
WAVERLY 74 94 75 95 / 30 10 20 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR TNZ005>009-023>030-
056>063-075-077-093>095.
UPDATE.......CRAVENS
SHORT TERM...CLEMENTS
LONG TERM....CLEMENTS
AVIATION.....DIRKES
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