853
FXUS64 KOHX 071602
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1102 AM CDT FRI AUG 7 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1100 AM CDT FRI AUG 7 2026
- SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY.
LOW COVERAGE WEST OF I-65 WITH MEDIUM COVERAGE EAST OF I-65.
- NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED, BUT ANY STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL
TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AROUND 40 MPH AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS
CAUSING LOCAL FLASH FLOODING.
- HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE UPPER 90 TO LOW 100S EACH AFTERNOON,
POTENTIALLY A TOUCH WARMER MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1100 AM CDT FRI AUG 7 2026
OUR COPY-PASTE WEATHER BUTTON IS GETTING WORN OUT. ONCE AGAIN WE
WILL SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS BUBBLE UP THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. MOST OF US WILL NOT SEE ANY RAIN AT ALL WHILE A FEW OF
US WILL GET MORE THAN WE WANT. OTHER THAN THE POSSIBILITY OF
LOCALIZED FLOODING IN A SPOT OR TWO, THE STORMS WILL BE GUSTY BUT
BELOW SEVERE LEVELS. AS USUAL, MOST OF THE STORMS WILL DIE OFF
WITH SUNSET AND LEAD TO PATCHY FOG IN THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. THE
AFTERNOON WILL BRING TYPICAL AUGUST HEAT AND HUMIDITY AND THE
NIGHT WILL BE MUGGY.
FOR SATURDAY, THINGS WILL CHANGE SLIGHTLY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
COMING FROM THE WEST WILL HELP INITIATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS DISTRIBUTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. THIS IS A CHANGE FROM
RECENT DAYS WHEN STORMS WERE FOCUSED MOSTLY OVER OUR SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN COUNTIES. MAIN IMPACTS WILL BE GUSTY WINDS 40 TO 50 MPH,
LIGHTNING, AND LOCAL HEAVY DOWNPOURS. MOST OUTDOOR EVENTS SHOULD
BE OK TO PROCEED AS SCHEDULED, BUT PLANS SHOULD BE IN PLACE FOR
SHELTERING FROM PASSING STORMS.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1100 AM CDT FRI AUG 7 2026
A STRONG BERMUDA HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OFF TO OUR EAST WITH
ANOTHER STRONG HIGH CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWEST STATES. THESE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL BRIDGE OVER OUR AREA BRINGING SLIGHTLY
HOTTER TEMPERATURES AND LOWER RAIN CHANCES FOR SUNDAY THROUGH AT
LEAST TUESDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE IN THE 10 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE
WHILE TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S FOR AREAS WEST OF
THE PLATEAU. HEAT RISK WILL CLIMB SOLIDLY INTO THE "MAJOR" LEVEL,
WHICH IS LEVEL 3 OUT OF 4. IT IS UNCERTAIN IF HEAT HEADLINES WILL
BE POSTED, BUT MONDAY AND TUESDAY LOOK LIKE THE DAYS WITH
GREATEST CHANCES FOR HEAT INDEX VALUES TOPPING 105 IN PARTS OF
THE MID STATE.
LATER IN THE WEEK, THE "BRIDGE" BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS
WILL FLATTEN OUT, ALLOWING TEMPS TO BACK OFF SLIGHTLY AS DAILY
SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES INCREASE. THIS MEANS GENERALLY TYPICAL
AUGUST HEAT AND HUMIDITY WITH 30 TO 50 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 604 AM CDT FRI AUG 7 2026
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LOW
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO IMPACT TERMINALS. FOR ANY STORMS
THAT DO FORM, MVFR TO IFR VIS WILL BE POSSIBLE. WINDS REMAIN S/SW
AROUND 8 KTS OR LESS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 93 74 92 74 / 20 20 30 20
CLARKSVILLE 93 73 92 72 / 20 20 20 20
CROSSVILLE 84 67 85 68 / 50 20 50 20
COLUMBIA 93 72 92 73 / 20 20 40 20
COOKEVILLE 87 70 86 70 / 40 20 40 20
JAMESTOWN 86 69 86 69 / 40 20 40 20
LAWRENCEBURG 90 71 90 72 / 30 20 40 20
MURFREESBORO 92 72 92 73 / 30 20 40 20
WAVERLY 93 72 91 72 / 20 30 30 20
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION.....CRAVENS
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