359
FXUS64 KOHX 230425
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1125 PM CDT TUE SEP 22 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1109 PM CDT TUE SEP 22 2026
- LOW CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ON THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU
WEDNESDAY. GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS.
- ASIDE FROM ADDITIONAL LOW RAIN CHANCES ON THE PLATEAU THURSDAY,
COOLER AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1109 PM CDT TUE SEP 22 2026
IT IS A VERY PLEASANT FIRST NIGHT OF OFFICIAL FALL, AND OUR MUCH-
NEEDED COOLDOWN COULDN'T HAVE ARRIVED AT A BETTER TIME.
TEMPERATURES AREAWIDE ARE IN THE UPPER 60S WITH A STEADY, COOL
NORTH BREEZE. LOW STRATUS CLOUDS HAVE FILTERED IN BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT AND WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TONIGHT AND THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY WEDNESDAY. CLOUDS AND CONTINUED NORTHERLY WINDS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES ON THE PLEASANT SIDE WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S; A FAR CRY FROM JUST 24 HOURS AGO WHEN IT
WAS NEARLY 100 DEGREES! THE DEEP UPPER LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THESE
COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN EAST WEDNESDAY, PASSING
A SHORTWAVE WITH AN EMBEDDED JET MAXIMA OVER MIDDLE TN. THIS
FEATURE WILL PROVIDE A BIT MORE FORCING FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY ACROSS THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU. SEVERE
PARAMETERS ARE MARGINAL AT BEST, BUT DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE NEAR
30 KTS. GIVEN THE BETTER FORCING, AFTERNOON DESTABILIZATION WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THAT COULD PRODUCE GUSTY
WINDS AS SOUNDINGS SHOW INVERTED-VS AT THE SURFACE. HAIL WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGEST STORMS GIVEN SUCH COOL TEMPERATURES
ALOFT. ACTIVITY WILL WIND DOWN LATE WEDNESDAY, AND THE REST OF THE
NIGHT WILL BE QUIET WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO LOW 60S. THURSDAY WILL
BE PRETTY SIMILAR WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES STICKING AROUND AND
LOW TO MEDIUM RAIN CHANCES HANGING ON TO THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU,
THOUGH THE SEVERE THREAT IS LITTLE TO NONE.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1109 PM CDT TUE SEP 22 2026
THE LOW WILL SPIN OFF TO THE EAST AND RIDGING WILL BUILD IN
BEHIND IT, DROPPING RAIN CHANCES TO NEARLY 0%. ON THE BRIGHT
SIDE, THE WEATHER THIS WEEKEND LOOKS FANTASTIC WITH CONTINUED
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S, LOW HUMIDITY, AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS DROPPING INTO THE LOW 50S. THAT'S JUST ABOUT COOL ENOUGH FOR
A LIGHT JACKET! MOVING INTO NEXT WEEK, HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD IN, INCHING THE TEMPERATURES BACK UP INTO THE
UPPER 80S TO MAYBE LOW 90S FOR NASHVILLE BY TUESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY,
THOUGH MODELS ARE IN SOME DISAGREEMENT ON STRENGTH, THERE IS A
GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT ANOTHER DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DEVELOP AND MOVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL BRING RAIN AND
STORM CHANCES BACK INTO THE FORECAST WITH ANOTHER DIP IN
TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 636 PM CDT TUE SEP 22 2026
A SURFACE BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY SET UP OVER THE APPALACHIANS,
WHILE A SHORTWAVE ROTATES ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THIS EVENING.
LOOK FOR MVFR CEILINGS TO SPREAD ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE TONIGHT
AND TOMORROW, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU, WHERE SOME
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING FOG AND LOW STRATUS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.
ALSO EXPECT LIGHT SHOWERS TO IMPACT THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU MAINLY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 66 80 64 84 / 0 0 0 10
CLARKSVILLE 62 77 61 83 / 0 0 0 0
CROSSVILLE 60 73 59 74 / 10 70 50 60
COLUMBIA 65 82 62 86 / 0 0 0 10
COOKEVILLE 63 76 62 78 / 10 40 20 30
JAMESTOWN 61 74 60 74 / 10 60 30 30
LAWRENCEBURG 64 82 62 83 / 0 10 10 10
MURFREESBORO 64 80 63 85 / 0 10 10 10
WAVERLY 64 77 61 82 / 0 0 0 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...BAGGETT
LONG TERM....BAGGETT
AVIATION.....ROSE
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