413
FXUS64 KOHX 151731
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1231 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1227 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2026
- MAINLY LOW RAIN AND STORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEK, WITH SOMEWHAT BETTER CHANCES THIS WEEKEND. SOME STORMS MAY
PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL, WHICH COULD LEAD TO MINOR LOCALIZED
FLOODING AND PONDING.
- TEMPERATURES LOOK TO INCREASE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
ELEVATED HUMIDITY LEADING TO AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES IN THE LOW
100S WEST OF THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU FROM FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT
TUESDAY.
- AT THIS TIME, THE RISK OF HAZARDOUS WEATHER APPEARS TO BE VERY
LOW FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 7 DAYS. (WE CURRENTLY ARE NOT
OUTLOOKED FOR SEVERE STORMS AND ALSO EXPECT TO REMAIN JUST BELOW
HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA.)
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1014 AM CDT WED JUL 15 2026
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE BLOSSOMING ACROSS THE AREA AND WILL INCREASE
IN COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LIKE YESTERDAY, INSTABILITY
IS PLENTIFUL AND PWATS ARE HIGH, BUT WIND SHEAR IS LACKING AND
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE WEAK. STORMS MAY DROP HEAVY RAIN, WHICH
COULD LEAD TO SOME MINOR LOCALIZED FLOODING AND PONDING. CONVECTION
WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN, SO ACTIVITY WILL TAPER OFF AFTER
SUNSET.
TOMORROW WILL BE A RINSE AND REPEAT OF TODAY IN TERMS OF DIURNAL
CONVECTION. OUR TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER (UPPER 80S TO
LOW 90S), AND WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S, HEAT INDICES WILL REACH
THE UPPER 90S WEST OF THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU. A FEW AREAS,
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-40, MAY SEE HEAT INDICIES IN THE
LOW 100S.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1014 AM CDT WED JUL 15 2026
THE GREATEST RAIN CHANCES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL FALL ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WITH A MOIST AIRMASS AND BETTER FORCING IN
PLACE, SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD. LOW-LEVEL SHEAR
AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES LOOK UNIMPRESSIVE AT THIS TIME, SO THE
SEVERE THREAT IS LOW. THE MAIN CONCERN WITH ANY STORM WILL BE ITS
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL, WHICH COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED
FLOODING AND PONDING.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TREND UP OVER THE COMING DAYS WITH
AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES IN THE LOW 100S WEST OF THE CUMBERLAND
PLATEAU FROM FRIDAY TO TUESDAY. GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A COLD FRONT
CROSSING THE AREA ON TUESDAY NIGHT, WHICH WOULD BRING SOME RELIEF
FROM THE HOT TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND. A DRIER AIRMASS MOVING
IN BEHIND THE FRONT WOULD ALSO RESULT IN LOWER POPS MID TO LATE
WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2026
THERE ARE A FEW SHOWERS ROAMING AROUND MIDDLE TN AT ISSUANCE. THIS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY EVENING BUT SHOULD BE SCATTERED ENOUGH
TO ONLY PROB30 AT THIS TIME. IF DIRECTLY AFFECTED, A SHOWER WILL
PUSH CIGS TO MVFR FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. MVFR TO LIFR
CIGS/VIS EXPECTED THURSDAY MORNING. CSV/SRB TO GET THE LOWEST
CATS. IMPROVEMENT BACK TO VFR MAY NOT RETURN UNTIL 18Z OR LATER
THURSDAY. WINDS WILL BE VERY LIGHT AND SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 73 90 73 90 / 10 30 10 70
CLARKSVILLE 72 89 73 89 / 10 40 20 60
CROSSVILLE 68 85 69 85 / 10 50 20 80
COLUMBIA 70 88 71 89 / 10 50 10 60
COOKEVILLE 70 87 71 86 / 10 40 10 70
JAMESTOWN 69 87 70 86 / 10 40 30 80
LAWRENCEBURG 70 86 70 88 / 10 50 20 70
MURFREESBORO 71 90 72 90 / 10 40 10 70
WAVERLY 71 87 71 88 / 10 40 10 60
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...CAHILL
LONG TERM....CAHILL
AVIATION.....UNGER
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