430
FXUS64 KOHX 240525
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1225 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1219 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2026
- MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES FOR RAIN CHANCES EACH DAY OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
- RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2-4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK,
WITH A MEDIUM CHANCE OF AMOUNTS GREATER THAN 4 INCHES IN SOME
AREAS. LOCALIZED FLOODING COULD BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STRONG
STORMS.
- THE THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IS LOW, BUT NOT ZERO. A
COUPLE STORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS. NO ORGANIZED SEVERE
THREATS ARE ANTICIPATED.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1107 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2026
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PUSH THROUGH DURING THE
OVERNIGHT, WITH MINIMAL ACTIVITY EXPECTED UNTIL AFTER 12Z
TOMORROW. STORM MOTION HAS BEEN PRETTY GOOD SO ANY FLOODING FROM
INTENSE RAINFALL HAS BEEN BRIEF. THE NEXT TWO DAYS WILL BE A
REPEAT OF TODAY, WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE OVERALL
SEVERE THREAT REMAINS LOW GIVEN THE LACK OF SHEAR, BUT INSTABILITY
IS STILL PRESENT AND CAPE VALUES OF 1000 J/KG COULD PRODUCE A
STRONG WIND GUST. THAT'S THE GENERAL PATTERN - WAVES OF STORMS,
SOME OF WHICH MAY BE SEVERE. THE RAINFALL HAS BEEN BENEFICIAL AND
MOST OF IT HAS BEEN ABSORBED BY VEGETATION OR THE GROUND AS THERE
HAS BEEN LITTLE RESPONSE IN AREA CREEKS AND STREAMS.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1107 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2026
MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER LOW PERSISTING OVER THE TX/OK REGION
THROUGH THE WEEK, KEEPING A SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH
THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. AFTER FRIDAY, THINGS BECOME A LITTLE MORE
UNCERTAIN WITH HOW AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS
IMPACTS OUR AREA. IN THE MEANTIME, EXPECT MILD TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE WEEK WITH PLENTY OF HUMIDITY AND ELEVATED PWAT VALUES.
THIS KEEPS THE FLOOD RISK ELEVATED WITH ANY INTENSE STORMS SINCE
SOILS ARE PRETTY MUCH SATURATED NOW. HOWEVER, THE RISK FOR SEVERE
STORMS IS LOW GIVEN THE WEAK SHEAR THROUGH THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1219 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2026
MUCH QUIETER ACROSS THE AREA NOW AND WILL CONTINUE THAT TREND
THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT, WITH SHOWER CHANCES ONCE AGAIN
RETURNING AFTER DAYBREAK. SOME ISOLATED TSRA COULD BE POSSIBLE,
BUT WILL MAINLY WATCH RADAR TRENDS ONCE STORMS DEVELOP. CIGS LOOK
TO BE A LITTLE LOWER RIGHT AT THE IFR/MVFR THRESHOLD, WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD VIS REDUCTION LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD WHEN WINDS BECOME
CALM.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 80 65 79 66 / 90 50 80 80
CLARKSVILLE 79 64 78 65 / 90 40 60 80
CROSSVILLE 75 61 75 62 / 90 60 80 80
COLUMBIA 80 64 79 65 / 80 50 80 80
COOKEVILLE 78 63 77 64 / 90 50 80 80
JAMESTOWN 77 61 77 61 / 90 50 80 80
LAWRENCEBURG 79 64 78 65 / 90 50 90 80
MURFREESBORO 81 64 80 65 / 90 50 80 80
WAVERLY 80 65 79 66 / 90 50 70 70
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION.....05
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page