796
FXUS64 KOHX 171123
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
523 AM CST TUE FEB 17 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 519 AM CST TUE FEB 17 2026
- EXPECT WARM, SPRING-LIKE TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK WITH NEAR-
RECORD VALUES POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY.
- RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
AND ARE LIKELY TO EXTEND INTO THE WEEKEND.
- STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THURSDAY AND INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY
WINDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 927 PM CST MON FEB 16 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HAS ALREADY SHIFTED TO THE EAST OF MIDDLE
TENNESSEE, AND THE UPPER RIDGE WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE MID STATE
TOMORROW AS AN UNSEASONABLY WARM AIR MASS CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER
THE REGION. LOOK FOR SOME ADDITIONAL CLOUDINESS ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SURFACE TROUGH, BUT THIS WILL DO
LITTLE TO THWART THIS WEEK'S EXPECTED WARMING TREND. RAIN CHANCES
WILL RETURN TO MIDDLE TENNESSEE WEDNESDAY NIGHT, ALONG WITH SOME
STORM CHANCES AS A DEVELOPING COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 927 PM CST MON FEB 16 2026
STORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS SOME
INSTABILITY LOOKS TO DEVELOP IN WHAT PROMISES TO BE AN UNUSUALLY
WARM AIR MASS. IN FACT, THURSDAY'S FORECAST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
ARE CLOSE TO DAILY RECORD VALUES. AT THIS TIME, IT APPEARS THAT WE
CAN EXPECT A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THURSDAY EVENING AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD, BUT A SECOND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS PROJECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER THE GULF COAST STATES AND PUSH THROUGH THE REGION ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, WITH RAIN CHANCES TAPERING OFF BY SUNDAY.
WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL TREND COOLER BEGINNING ON FRIDAY, THIS
SECOND FROPA WILL USHER IN MORE WINTER-LIKE TEMPERATURES BY THE
START OF NEXT WEEK. INDEED, WE CAN LOOK FORWARD TO WIDESPREAD
FREEZING TEMPERATURES (MAINLY IN THE 20S) MONDAY MORNING AND AGAIN
TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE WE START TO WARM BACK UP. DESPITE
PERSISTENT RAIN CHANCES FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY,
MULTI-DAY QPF VALUES LOOK TO STAY BETWEEN 0.75" AND 1.5" ACROSS
MIDDLE TENNESSEE, WHICH SHOULDN'T POSE MUCH OF A PROBLEM. OTHER
THAN THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG STORMS MAINLY ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, THERE DOESN'T APPEAR TO BE ANY HAZARDOUS WEATHER IN
STORE FOR THE MID STATE DURING THE UPCOMING 7-DAY FORECAST PERIOD.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 519 AM CST TUE FEB 17 2026
MVFR CIGS OVER WEST TN WILL SPREAD EAST INTO KCKV AFTER 14Z AND
INTO THE NASHVILLE AREA AFTER 15Z AS A SCT CLOUD DECK. LOW CLOUDS
WILL THIN FOR A TIME BETWEEN 23 AND 5Z BEFORE MVFR CIGS BUILD IN
FOR ALL THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME
BREEZY AFTER 15Z GUSTING UP TO 22 KNOTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 69 57 70 58 / 0 0 10 50
CLARKSVILLE 68 57 71 57 / 0 10 10 50
CROSSVILLE 63 52 62 55 / 0 0 20 50
COLUMBIA 68 57 69 58 / 0 0 10 40
COOKEVILLE 65 54 64 56 / 0 0 10 60
JAMESTOWN 63 53 62 54 / 0 0 10 60
LAWRENCEBURG 67 56 68 58 / 0 0 10 40
MURFREESBORO 68 57 69 58 / 0 0 10 50
WAVERLY 66 56 69 57 / 0 10 20 50
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM....ROSE
AVIATION.....MUELLER
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