841
FXUS64 KOHX 091318
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
718 AM CST FRI JAN 9 2026
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 718 AM CST FRI JAN 9 2026
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY BRING A
FLOODING RISK.
- RAINFALL AMOUNTS RANGE BETWEEN 0.50 INCHES ACROSS THE NW TO 3
INCHES ACROSS THE SE THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
- SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND DRIER WEATHER DEVELOP NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 718 AM CST FRI JAN 9 2026
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER (SPC) HAS REMOVED MIDDLE TENNESSEE
FROM THE MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER TODAY. WITH THAT, THE
MAIN CONCERN BECOMES FLOODING. SOME STRONGER STORMS COULD
CERTAINLY STILL OCCUR, BUT THEY WOULD BE ISOLATED AS INSTABILITY
REMAINS LOW.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 531 AM CST FRI JAN 9 2026
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN ON TRACK TO MOVE THROUGH MIDDLE
TN LATER TONIGHT AND THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. TWO ROUNDS OF
POTENTIAL STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE FIRST
ROUND WILL BE WITH THE LINE OF STORMS MOVING THROUGH SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THE NEXT ROUND WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT AS BOUNDARY
LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE AREA. THIS EVENINGS SOUNDING SHOWS DECENT
WIND SHEAR AND GOOD MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES, WHICH WILL PROMOTE
ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS AS THE FIRST ROUND MOVES THROUGH. WE ALSO
BROKE THE 00Z DAILY RECORD PW FOR THE 9TH (1.05"), WITH THE
SOUNDING SHOWING 1.07 INCHES. THESE THINGS CONSIDERED, A
LOCALIZED WIND THREAT IS STILL POSSIBLE. GIVEN THE STRONG SHEAR
PROFILE, IF WE DO MANAGE TO SEE INCREASED INSTABILITY ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONT, THERE WILL BE A RISK FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO
THREAT. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS AS FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
ADDITIONALLY, GIVEN THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE, HEAVY RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS. THE FIRST ROUND OF STORMS MOVE PAST
THE PLATEAU THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON, ALLOWING FOR A BREAK IN
WEATHER. A WARM FRONT IS FORECASTED TO BE SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY
EVENING, BUT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT BRINGING
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. FLOODING CONCERNS WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THIS PERIOD, IN PARTICULAR ACROSS THE PLATEAU. A
FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING.
COME SATURDAY MORNING, THE FRONT WILL STILL BE WORKING THROUGH
MIDDLE TN BEFORE EVENTUALLY MOVING ON OUT BY SATURDAY EVENING. AT
THIS TIME, A MUCH DRIER AND COLDER AIRMASS SETS UP OVER THE REGION
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS DIPPING INTO THE LOW 30S.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 531 AM CST FRI JAN 9 2026
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES STICK AROUND THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST
WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S AND LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION UNTIL A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES
THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING SOME LOW PRECIPITATION
CHANCES BACK TO THE FORECAST, BUT WITH THE DRY AIR IN PLACE, WE
WILL STRUGGLE TO SEE ANY SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION. WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW FREEZING OVERNIGHT, SOME SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE IF ENOUGH MOISTURE IS PRESENT WITH THIS SYSTEM.
TO EARLY FOR ANY DETAILS, BUT A FEW SNOW FLURRIES EAST OF I-65 AND
ALONG THE PLATEAU AREN'T OUT OF THE QUESTION. AFTERWARDS THE
RELATED COLD FRONT MOVES OUT AND REINFORCES THE COLD AIR FOR THE
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 531 AM CST FRI JAN 9 2026
SHRA ARE AFFECTING TAF SITES CURRENTLY, DROPPING CEILINGS AND VSBY
ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE. THESE WILL CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON,
AND POSSIBLY OVERNIGHT, THOUGH EXACT LOCATION WAS NOT TOO CERTAIN
ON THE OVERNIGHT ROUND SO LEFT OUT MENTION FOR NOW. WINDS WILL BE
GUSTY TODAY, WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS POSSIBLE FROM THE SOUTH/SW.
WINDS WILL SHIFT AS A COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH TO THE NORTH, AND
CALM TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 71 54 61 33 / 90 90 80 0
CLARKSVILLE 67 51 58 30 / 40 80 60 0
CROSSVILLE 62 53 59 28 / 100 100 100 10
COLUMBIA 71 55 61 32 / 90 90 80 0
COOKEVILLE 65 54 59 30 / 100 100 100 10
JAMESTOWN 64 52 59 28 / 100 90 100 10
LAWRENCEBURG 70 55 61 33 / 100 90 90 0
MURFREESBORO 71 55 61 32 / 90 90 90 0
WAVERLY 68 52 58 31 / 40 90 60 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR TNZ008>011-027>034-
056>066-075-077>080-093>095.
UPDATE.......HOLLEY
SHORT TERM...CRAVENS
LONG TERM....CRAVENS
AVIATION.....HOLLEY
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