739
FXUS64 KOHX 160508
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1108 PM CST SUN FEB 15 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1101 PM CST SUN FEB 15 2026
- AREAS OF FOG OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
- WARM SPRING-LIKE TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK.
- DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, THEN LOW TO MEDIUM RAIN CHANCES LATE
WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 935 PM CST SUN FEB 15 2026
SINCE THE RAIN HAS ENDED, OUR ATTENTION HAS TURNED TO THE POTENTIAL
FOR FOG OVERNIGHT. SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE IS SHOWING POTENTIAL FOR
PATCHY FOG HEADING INTO MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE TIME DUE TO MOIST AIR
AROUND THE SURFACE FROM THE RAIN. MAKE SURE YOU LEAVE EXTRA TIME ON
YOUR COMMUTE TOMORROW AND IF YOU RUN INTO FOG, USE YOUR LOW BEAMS
AND SLOW DOWN.
AFTER THE FOG LIFTS AND CLOUDS CLEAR, MONDAY WILL BE SPRING-LIKE,
WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S ACROSS THE AREA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SET IN AND CONTINUE THESE SPRING-LIKE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE START
OF THE WORK WEEK, AS WELL AS SOME CALMER WEATHER.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 935 PM CST SUN FEB 15 2026
WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE HIGH, OUR TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH
RECORD BREAKING. MID-WEEK, WE WILL APPROACH HIGHS IN THE 60S AS WARM
AS THE MID TO UPPER 70S, WITH OUR LOW TEMPERATURES BEING CLOSER TO
OUR AVERAGE HIGHS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
HEADING INTO LATE WEEK, GUIDANCE IS BRINGING IN ANOTHER SYSTEM
THURSDAY. THERE'S A FAIR AMOUNT OF VARIABILITY IN THE TIMING GIVEN
IT IS SO FAR AWAY TEMPORALLY RIGHT NOW, BUT IT IS SOMETIME BETWEEN
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. CONFIDENCE IN MESSAGING ANYTHING IN PARTICULAR
WITH THIS SYSTEM IS LOW AS WELL, WITH TOO MUCH VARIABILITY GOING ON
IN THE GUIDANCE. WE'LL KEEP AN EYE ON IT AS WE GET INTO THE WORK
WEEK, AS THERE COULD BE SOME THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1101 PM CST SUN FEB 15 2026
LOW STRATUS WITH MVFR TO IFR CIGS CONTINUES ACROSS MIDDLE TN THIS
EVENING, PERSISTING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THERE IS SOME CLEARING
ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST MIDDLE TN, INCLUDING AT CKV, WHERE CONDITIONS
HAVE RETURNED TO VFR. AREAS WHERE SKIES DO CLEAR TONIGHT MAY
RESULT IN PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER, WITH THE PERSISTENT
CLOUDS AND RELATIVELY STRONGER WINDS, CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN HOW
WIDESPREAD AND DENSE THIS FOG WOULD BE. CIGS WILL GRADUALLY
IMPROVE BY MORNING WITH VFR RETURNING AREAWIDE BY 16Z TO 18Z WITH
LIGHT WINDS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 41 66 43 70 / 0 0 0 0
CLARKSVILLE 38 65 42 69 / 0 0 0 0
CROSSVILLE 37 62 41 62 / 10 0 0 0
COLUMBIA 41 65 42 67 / 0 0 0 0
COOKEVILLE 39 63 43 65 / 0 0 0 0
JAMESTOWN 37 62 41 64 / 0 0 0 0
LAWRENCEBURG 40 64 43 67 / 0 0 0 0
MURFREESBORO 41 64 43 68 / 0 0 0 0
WAVERLY 39 64 43 66 / 0 0 0 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...HOLLEY
LONG TERM....HOLLEY
AVIATION.....CLEMENTS
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