252
FXUS64 KOHX 172351
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
651 PM CDT SAT OCT 17 2026
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 645 PM CDT SAT OCT 17 2026
- PATCHY FROST OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY FOR THE UPPER CUMBERLAND.
- GRADUAL WARMING TREND NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S, AND SOME
LOWER 80S LATE WEEK.
- DRY PATTERN FOR THE REST OF THE MONTH WITH DROUGHT CONDITIONS
WORSENING.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 645 PM CDT SAT OCT 17 2026
IT WAS A CLEAR, CRISP FALL EVENING. WINDS WERE DIMINISHING AND
THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE LATE NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
DROP INTO THE 30S WITH PATCHY FROST FOR MUCH OF THE UPPER
CUMBERLAND AND SOME LOW-LYING SHELTERED AREAS WEST OF THE
PLATEAU.
THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE, BUT UPDATES WERE ISSUED TO FINE
TUNE HOURLY TRENDS.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1017 AM CDT SAT OCT 17 2026
WELL HELLO FALL! YOU FINALLY SHOWED UP! THE REAL FIRST TASTE OF
SOMETHING OTHER THAN RECORD HEAT MIGHT MAKE IT FEEL ACTUALLY
CHILLY OUT THERE EVEN WITH FULL SUNSHINE TODAY. HIGHS IN THE 50S
AND LOW 60S WITH GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY WITH
WINDS DECREASING IN SPEED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
A FEW AREAS OF PATCHY FROST MAY DEVELOP TONIGHT ONCE THOSE WINDS
DIE DOWN, BUT SUNDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A PICTURE PERFECT FALL
DAY WITH SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1017 AM CDT SAT OCT 17 2026
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR PATCHY FROST BEFORE A
GRADUAL WARM UP IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. FULL SUNSHINE,
ZERO CHANCES FOR RAIN, AND HIGHS IN THE 70S WITH LOWS IN THE 40S
CAN BE EXPECTED ALL WEEK. IN FACT, I WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED IF A
FEW LOCATIONS TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK APPROACH 80+ DEGREES FOR
HIGHS.
TAKING A LOOK AT LONG-RANGE MODELS, HIGH PRESSURE/UPPER RIDGE
WILL REMAIN IN FULL CONTROL OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND NO SIGNIFICANT
MEASURABLE RAINFALL REALLY LOOKS TO IMPACT MIDDLE TENNESSEE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE MONTH. GREAT FOR FALL OUTDOOR FESTIVITIES,
NOT- SO- GREAT FOR OUR EVER-INCREASING CONCERN FOR DROUGHT
CONDITIONS.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 615 PM CDT SAT OCT 17 2026
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES.
NORTHERLY WINDS UNDER 7 KNOTS BECOMING EASTERLY AFTER 12Z.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 40 69 42 73 / 0 0 0 0
CLARKSVILLE 37 69 39 74 / 0 0 0 0
CROSSVILLE 34 63 38 69 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBIA 38 70 39 74 / 0 0 0 0
COOKEVILLE 36 67 40 70 / 0 0 0 0
JAMESTOWN 34 65 37 69 / 0 0 0 0
LAWRENCEBURG 37 70 39 73 / 0 0 0 0
MURFREESBORO 38 70 39 73 / 0 0 0 0
WAVERLY 39 69 42 72 / 0 0 0 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE.......13
SHORT TERM...HURLEY
LONG TERM....HURLEY
AVIATION.....MUELLER
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