135
FXUS64 KOHX 060507
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1107 PM CST THU MAR 5 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1104 PM CST THU MAR 5 2026
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. NEAR-RECORD HIGHS (EVEN HIGHER THAN TODAY'S) ARE EXPECTED
TOMORROW.
- THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
SATURDAY. SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE, MAINLY POSING
A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS.
- MEDIUM TO HIGH RAIN CHANCES WILL PERSIST THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. APPRECIABLE RAINFALL TOTALS ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 7
DAYS, WHICH SHOULD HELP ALLEVIATE OUR WORSENING DROUGHT
CONDITIONS.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 956 PM CST THU MAR 5 2026
A PESKY SURFACE BOUNDARY REMAINS ENTRENCHED TO THE IMMEDIATE NORTH
OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE. THE BOUNDARY ITSELF HAS WEAKENED SINCE LAST
EVENING. BUT WE DON'T EXPECT A FROPA HERE ANYTIME SOON, SO LOOK
FOR WARM AIR TO CONTINUE PILING UP ACROSS THE MID STATE ON FRIDAY.
LOW RAIN CHANCES ARE IN STORE FOR US TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT,
THEN WE CAN LOOK FORWARD TO GREATLY INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND A FEW STORMS ON SATURDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT
SURFACE BOUNDARY. MIDDLE TENNESSEE IS CURRENTLY OUTLOOKED FOR A
MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER (1 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5) SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS REPRESENTING
THE MAIN THREAT.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 956 PM CST THU MAR 5 2026
IT APPEARS THAT WE CAN EXPECT A CLEAN FROPA MAYBE EARLY SUNDAY.
THIS WILL BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR TO MIDDLE TENNESSEE, BUT
WE'LL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL CLIMATOLOGICALLY AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT
WEEK. THE FROPA WILL DO LITTLE TO EVEN THINGS OUT, HOWEVER; AN
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL KEEP MEDIUM TO HIGH RAIN CHANCES IN
THE FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THAT'S WHEN WE CAN LOOK
FORWARD TO ANOTHER FROPA THAT SHOULD DROP OUR TEMPERATURES CLOSER
TO CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS. THE 7-DAY QPF ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE
RANGES FROM 2 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. THIS SHOULD
HELP ALLEVIATE THE WORSENING DROUGHT CONDITIONS THAT WE ARE
WATCHING UNFOLD ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. INDEED, THE U.S. DROUGHT
MONITOR THAT CAME OUT EARLIER TODAY SHOWS 38% OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE
IN A MODERATE OR WORSE DROUGHT (UP FROM 21% A WEEK AGO).
HOPEFULLY, THE EXPECTED WET PATTERN CAN TURN THOSE NUMBERS AROUND
SOON.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1104 PM CST THU MAR 5 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THIS TAF CYCLE. WINDS WILL
RELAX TO 10 KTS OR LESS OVERNIGHT AND BECOME BREEZY AGAIN
TOMORROW AROUND 15-17Z WITH SOUTHERLY GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 60 84 65 76 / 10 30 10 100
CLARKSVILLE 60 84 65 75 / 20 20 20 90
CROSSVILLE 57 77 61 76 / 0 20 20 90
COLUMBIA 60 81 64 76 / 0 30 10 100
COOKEVILLE 59 79 63 76 / 0 20 20 80
JAMESTOWN 57 78 62 76 / 0 10 10 80
LAWRENCEBURG 60 81 63 76 / 0 30 10 90
MURFREESBORO 60 83 65 78 / 0 20 20 90
WAVERLY 61 81 63 73 / 10 30 20 100
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM....ROSE
AVIATION.....UNGER
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