413
FXUS64 KOHX 200521
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1221 AM CDT MON JUL 20 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1217 AM CDT MON JUL 20 2026
- A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN PLACE MONDAY AND TUESDAY FOR FEEL LIKE
TEMPERATURES REACHING 105+ DEGREES EACH AFTERNOON.
- THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY. MAIN IMPACTS ARE DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN.
- COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARRIVE WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1050 PM CDT SUN JUL 19 2026
A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE
ACROSS MIDDLE TN, SUPPORTING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THE OVERNIGHT PROMPTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS IN SEVERAL COUNTIES, WITH SOME STORMS
PRODUCING RAINFALL RATES UP TO 3-4 INCHES PER HOUR ALONG WITH
GUSTY WINDS IN STRONGER DOWNBURSTS. MONDAY LOOKS TO FEATURE SOME
DRYING THROUGH THE MORNING, WITH PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS
DUE TO THE HUMID CONDITIONS AND RECENT RAINS. CONVECTION SHOULD
REDEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AS DAYTIME HEATING DESTABILIZES THE
ATMOSPHERE, LEADING TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE (LOOKING
LESS WIDESPREAD COMPARED TO SUNDAY EVENING). WITH ANY STORMS THAT
DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON, HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE
MAIN CONCERNS. HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMB BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID
90S ONCE AGAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION, WITH HEAT INDICES
CLIMBING INTO THE TRIPLE DIGITS.
TUESDAY WILL BE THE HOTTEST DAY. WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE MID 90S
ARE EXPECTED, WITH HEAT INDICES REACHING OR EXCEEDING 105 DEGREES.
A MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL ADD SOME
ADDITIONAL FORCING, INCREASE STORM CHANCES THROUGH THE EVENING.
WITH THE ADDITIONAL SUPPORT, THERE IS A LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCE FOR
SEVERE STORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT. DAMAGING
WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY THREAT, WITH A LOW TORNADO RISK IN MORE
ORGANIZED STORMS. HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING CONCERNS
PERSIST.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1050 PM CDT SUN JUL 19 2026
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY,
BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO
A NOTICEABLE BREAK FROM THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY, WITH HIGHS FALLING
INTO THE MID 80S AND LOWER RAIN CHANCES FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. CONDITIONS TURN MUCH QUIETER OVERALL AFTER THE ACTIVE START
TO THE WEEK.
HIGHS GRADUALLY MODERATE BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S BY
LATE WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TO SPARK SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS AROUND
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT, THOUGH DETAILS REMAIN UNCERTAIN AT THIS
TIME. BY NEXT MONDAY, THE PATTERN STAYS GENERALLY SEASONAL, WITH
ONLY MODEST CHANCES FOR DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1217 AM CDT MON JUL 20 2026
PATCHY FOG WILL BE INTERMITTENT THROUGHOUT THIS OVERNIGHT PERIOD,
ESPECIALLY ON THE PLATEAU. CEILINGS MAY TANK PERIODICALLY IN THE
EARLY MONDAY MORNING HOURS AS WELL, WARRANTING SOME TEMPOS FOR
VERY LOW CIGS/VVS, SOME OF WHICH COULD DROP TO LIFR FOR A FEW
HOURS. AFTER THE SUN RISES, MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL SEE MORE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, BUT LESS SPATIAL COVERAGE
THAN SUNDAY. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER FOR THE TYPICAL AFTERNOON
CONVECTION PROB30S DUE TO THE CAMS' LACK OF AGREEMENT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 94 76 96 75 / 30 10 30 80
CLARKSVILLE 93 75 97 72 / 30 10 40 90
CROSSVILLE 87 70 88 70 / 50 20 50 90
COLUMBIA 94 74 95 74 / 30 10 30 70
COOKEVILLE 89 72 90 71 / 30 20 50 90
JAMESTOWN 88 71 89 69 / 40 30 50 90
LAWRENCEBURG 92 73 94 74 / 30 20 30 70
MURFREESBORO 94 75 96 74 / 30 20 30 90
WAVERLY 93 74 96 73 / 20 10 20 80
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR
TNZ005>011-023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095.
SHORT TERM...CRAVENS
LONG TERM....CRAVENS
AVIATION.....DIRKES
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