192
FXUS64 KOHX 161720
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1120 AM CST MON FEB 16 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1117 AM CST MON FEB 16 2026
- WARM SPRING-LIKE TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK.
- DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, THEN LOW TO MEDIUM RAIN CHANCES LATE
WEEK.
- LOW CHANCE FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1040 AM CST MON FEB 16 2026
DRY HIGH PRESSURE HAD MOVED OVER THE AREA THIS MONDAY MORNING
BRINGING VERY NICE WEATHER. SKIES HAD BECOME SUNNY AND
TEMPERATURES WERE ON THEIR WAY TO THE LOWER TO MID 60S. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL KEEP FAIR WX IN PLACE TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.
THERE WILL BE A FEW PATCHES OF LATE NIGHT FOG, MAINLY ALONG LAKES
AND RIVERS.
FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, THE CENTER OF THE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. AT THE SAME TIME, A LOW
AMPLITUDE MID/UPPER RIDGE WILL EXPAND FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR WARM
TEMPERATURES WITH INCREASING SOUTH BREEZES. HIGHS WILL REACH THE
60S TO LOWER 70S WITH SOUTH WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH AT TIMES
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN
THE 50S, WHICH IS WARMER THAN NORMAL HIGHS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
TUESDAY WILL BRING SOME SUNSHINE FILTERED THROUGH CIRRUS CLOUDS.
ON WEDNESDAY, CLOUDS WILL LOWER AND THICKEN AS THE TAIL OF A
SHORTWAVE DIPS INTO THE AREA WITH A SMALL CHANCE FOR A SHOWER.
EVEN WITH A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDINESS AND BREEZES FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY, IT WILL BE A GREAT TIME FOR SOME OUTDOOR WORK OR PLAY.
WE ARE NOT EXPECTING RECORD HIGHS TUESDAY, BUT MAYBE WEDNESDAY
AND MORE LIKELY THURSDAY. HERE ARE SOME NASHVILLE HIGH TEMP
NUMBERS:
NORMAL HIGHS THIS WEEK 55 DEGREES.
FEB 17 RECORD 78 IN 1927
FEB 18 RECORD 74 IN 1951
FEB 19 RECORD 76 IN 2018
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1040 AM CST MON FEB 16 2026
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT, A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL MOVE FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE MID MS VALLEY. A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING FROM THE LOW PRESSURE WILL REACH MIDDLE TN THURSDAY
NIGHT. OUT AHEAD OF THESE SYSTEMS, WARM TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST
WITH SOME RECORD HIGHS. ALSO, HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL CLIMB AND
ATMOSPHERIC WINDS WILL INCREASE.
BASED ON THE LATEST MODELS, INGREDIENTS WILL COME TOGETHER FOR A
SEVERE STORM RISK MAINLY NORTH OF OUR COVERAGE AREA. ALTHOUGH
DYNAMIC FORCING LOOKS MUCH WEAKER DOWN OUR WAY, WE WILL HAVE
STRONG 700-500 MB LAYER WINDS IN THE 50-70KT RANGE WITH A FEW
HUNDRED J/KG SB CAPE POSSIBLE. LOW LEVEL SHEAR LOOKS MORE MODEST
THAN THE DEEP LAYER VALUES. SO, WE COULD HAVE SOME STORMS WITH
GUSTY WINDS. AT THIS POINT, I WOULD EXPECT JUST A MARGINAL SEVERE
RISK (LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5) UNLESS UPDATED MODELS SHOW MAJOR CHANGES.
IT IS CERTAINLY SOMETHING WE WILL NEED TO WATCH. IF STRONG STORMS
DO FORM IN OUR AREA, THE MAIN TIME FRAME WOULD BE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT, TEMPERATURES WILL TREND
DOWNWARD TOWARD NORMAL LEVELS BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY. LOW SHOWER
CHANCES WILL LINGER AFTER THE FRONT FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH
DRY AIR EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1117 AM CST MON FEB 16 2026
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THIS TAF CYCLE. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION WILL BE A MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL FOG AT
CKV EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM
09-12Z/TUE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND MAINLY SOUTHEASTERLY TODAY,
BUT WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND BECOME BREEZY LATE TUESDAY
MORNING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 66 44 69 57 / 0 0 0 10
CLARKSVILLE 66 42 68 57 / 0 0 0 10
CROSSVILLE 62 42 62 51 / 0 0 0 10
COLUMBIA 65 44 67 56 / 0 0 0 10
COOKEVILLE 64 44 64 55 / 0 0 0 10
JAMESTOWN 62 42 63 52 / 0 0 0 10
LAWRENCEBURG 64 46 67 56 / 0 0 0 10
MURFREESBORO 64 43 67 57 / 0 0 0 10
WAVERLY 65 45 67 56 / 0 0 0 10
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION.....UNGER
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