193
FXUS64 KOHX 111148
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
545 AM CST WED FEB 11 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 541 AM CST WED FEB 11 2026
- RAIN EXITS MIDDLE TN THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY A BRIEF DRYING
PERIOD THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
- HIGH RAIN CHANCES RETURN SATURDAY WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS LIKELY
(>75% CHANCE) TO REMAIN BELOW 2" THROUGH SUNDAY. FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1020 PM CST TUE FEB 10 2026
AFTER SOME SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS THIS EVENING, THE LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT HAS MOVED INTO THE AREA.
THE FRONT IS KNOCKING ON THE DOOR OF THE LAND BETWEEN THE LAKES.
THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AND CLEAR SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE. THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL END ALONG WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. WEDNESDAY WILL BE ABOUT 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY WITH
A 10 MPH NORTH WIND. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT WE SHOULD SEE PLENTY
OF SUNSHINE BY LUNCHTIME. WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST
NIGHT OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS WITH LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO LOW
30S. THE NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES ON THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
RIGHT AROUND NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1020 PM CST TUE FEB 10 2026
WE START THE LONG TERM FORECAST DRY ON FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST. LOOKING BACK WEST, A DEEP SOUTHERN STREAM
TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO EJECT OUT OF THE BAJA ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL
INTRODUCE RAIN CHANCES TO OUR AREA ON SATURDAY ALONG A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. A SURFACE LOW WILL BECOME MORE ORGANIZED ON SUNDAY AND
TRACK NEAR THE GULF COAST. THIS WILL SUPPRESS ANY CHANCES OF
APPRECIABLE INSTABILITY IN OUR AREA. THE UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE
THROUGH OUR AREA ON SUNDAY WITH RAIN SHUTTING OFF SOMETIME ON
SUNDAY. THERE ARE STILL SOME TIMING DIFFERENCE BETWEEN MODELS DUE
TO SOME KEEPING THE WAVE AS A SLOWER CLOSED LOW VS A FASTER-MOVING
OPEN WAVE. AS FAR AS RAINFALL FOR OUR AREA, NBM PROBABILITIES FOR
2" OR GREATER HAVE DECREASED SOME OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. AREAS
IN THE SOUTHWEST HAVE THE HIGH PROBABILITY OF PICKING UP MORE THAN
2" BUT THAT IS AROUND A 25% CHANCE AND AROUND A 50% CHANCE OF
PICKING UP AT LEAST 1". WITH THAT IN MIND, I DO NOT FORESEE ANY
MAJOR FLOODING CONCERNS. ONCE THE WEEKEND SYSTEM CLEARS, UPPER
RIDGING WILL BUILD IN TO START THE WORK WEEK, SO EXPECT ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TO RETURN.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 541 AM CST WED FEB 11 2026
RAIN IS NOW SOUTH OF ALL TERMINALS BUT STILL BLANKETS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN. RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH AND EXIT THE
REGION THROUGH THE MORNING. CIGS ARE RAPIDLY IMPROVING BEHIND
PRECIPITATION WITH CKV/BNA/MQY ALREADY BACK TO VFR CONDITIONS.
EXPECT SRB/CSV TO FOLLOW SUIT BY 15Z. WIND REMAINS OUT OF THE N,
BECOMING NE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 54 32 53 35 / 20 0 0 0
CLARKSVILLE 51 29 51 32 / 0 0 0 10
CROSSVILLE 51 27 49 29 / 40 0 0 0
COLUMBIA 55 30 54 36 / 70 0 0 0
COOKEVILLE 50 28 49 31 / 20 0 0 0
JAMESTOWN 49 26 46 27 / 10 0 0 0
LAWRENCEBURG 55 30 54 36 / 80 0 0 0
MURFREESBORO 54 29 53 35 / 50 0 0 0
WAVERLY 52 31 52 36 / 10 0 0 10
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...REAGAN
LONG TERM....REAGAN
AVIATION.....CRAVENS
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