826
FXUS64 KOHX 291728
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1228 PM CDT TUE SEP 29 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1225 PM CDT TUE SEP 29 2026
- WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY WITH HIGHS
REACHING THE 80S TO LOWER 90S.
- LOW TO MEDIUM SHOWER CHANCES DEVELOP FRIDAY. MEDIUM TO HIGH RAIN
CHANCES SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
- HIGH CHANCE FOR MORE THAN 1 INCH OF RAIN THIS WEEKEND WITH THE
HEAVIEST RAIN EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1145 AM CDT TUE SEP 29 2026
TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY CREEPING UP, RUNNING A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME. THE WARMING WILL CONTINUE THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO OUR EAST
AND AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD. ALONG WITH THE BUILDING HEAT,
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BRING INCREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS.
ALTHOUGH NOT RECORD-SETTING, TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. HEAT RISK WILL CLIMB INTO
THE MODERATE CATEGORY, SO KEEP THAT IN MIND FOR YOUR DAYTIME
OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.
WE HAVE JUST ONE MORE DAY TO GO BEFORE OFFICIALLY WRAPPING UP THE
HOTTEST AND DRIEST SEPTEMBER ON RECORD.
THE START OF OCTOBER WILL BRING SOME QUICK CHANGES IN THE
WEATHER, BUT THE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL LAST JUST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND BEFORE WE SETTLE BACK INTO A VERY PLEASANT PATTERN FOR
NEXT WEEK.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1145 AM CDT TUE SEP 29 2026
WE CONTINUE TO LOOK FOR SEVERAL FEATURES TO COME TOGETHER LATE
THIS WEEK TO BRING MUCH NEEDED RAIN INTO OUR AREA. THE FIRST WILL
BE A DISTURBANCE WITH A POCKET OF TROPICAL MOISTURE COMING UP
FROM THE GULF. THE NEXT WILL BE A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AND
SURFACE COLD FRONT. FINALLY, A BIG SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL COME FROM THE WEST. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE PRE-LOADED
WITH PACIFIC TROPICAL MOISTURE. THE INTERPLAY OF THESE SYSTEMS
WILL MAKE FOR A COMPLEX SETUP DETERMINING EXACTLY WHEN AND HOW
MUCH RAIN WE GET.
LOW TO MEDIUM RAIN CHANCES WILL ENTER THE FORECAST FRIDAY. THIS
WILL TAKE THE FORM OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. IF NASHVILLE (BNA) GOES THE ENTIRE DAY FRIDAY
WITHOUT MEASURABLE RAINFALL, THAT WILL OFFICIALLY BREAK THE RECORD
FOR THE MOST CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITHOUT RAINFALL; 36 DAYS IS THE
CURRENT RECORD.
BY SATURDAY, RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE AREA-WIDE AS THE VARIOUS
FEATURES CONVERGE ON OUR AREA, INCLUDING ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT
FROM THE NORTHWEST. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL REACH OVER 2
INCHES, OR 95TH PERCENTILE CLIMATOLOGICALLY, SO A SOAKING RAIN
EVENT IS LIKELY. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE NUMBER OF ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS SHOWING SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN. MOST LIKELY WE ARE
LOOKING AT ONE HALF TO 1.5" TOTALS, BUT SOME AREAS COULD GET
HEAVIER AMOUNTS DEPENDING ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANY PERSISTENT
BANDS OF SHOWERS. THE LOCATION AND PERSISTENCE OF A MAIN, HEAVIER
BAND OF RAIN WILL DEPEND A LOT ON THE PROGRESS OF THE SURFACE
FRONT. LATEST MODELS ARE TRENDING FASTER WITH THE FRONT, SO IT
LOOKS LIKE OUR SOUTHEAST HALF HAS THE BEST CHANCE FOR HIGHER
TOTALS. ALSO WITH THE FRONT TRENDING FASTER, THE MOST SIGNIFICANT,
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL MAY GET SWEPT OFF TO OUR SOUTHEAST BY MID
MORNING SUNDAY. NORTHWEST AREAS COULD BREAK OUT INTO PARTIAL
SUNSHINE FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON IF THE FRONT SCOOTS ON THROUGH THE
AREA. BUT WITH AN OVERRUNNING PATTERN, WE MAY DEAL WITH POST-
FRONTAL LOW CLOUDS AND DRIP FOR A WHILE, PERHAPS LASTING INTO
EARLY MONDAY.
AFTER THE FRONT COMPLETES PASSAGE THROUGH THE AREA, WE WILL BE SET
UP FOR A VERY NICE PATTERN NEXT WEEK WITH DRY AIR AND COMFORTABLE
TEMPERATURES. THIS MEANS A FEW CLEAR DAYS WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE
50S AND HIGHS IN THE 70S.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT TUE SEP 29 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SKC AND LIGHT
VARIABLE WINDS WILL STICK AROUND FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON
BUT SCT HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT.
TOMORROW, WINDS WILL VEER FROM SE TO SSW AND INCREASE TO 5-10 KT
WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 15 KT POSSIBLE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 58 91 65 94 / 0 0 0 0
CLARKSVILLE 55 92 64 94 / 0 0 0 0
CROSSVILLE 53 83 58 85 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBIA 55 92 63 94 / 0 0 0 0
COOKEVILLE 55 86 63 89 / 0 0 0 0
JAMESTOWN 55 84 61 86 / 0 0 0 0
LAWRENCEBURG 57 90 63 92 / 0 0 0 0
MURFREESBORO 54 93 64 95 / 0 0 0 0
WAVERLY 59 88 64 90 / 0 0 0 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION.....CAHILL
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