295
FXUS64 KOHX 261122
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
522 AM CST THU FEB 26 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 521 AM CST THU FEB 26 2026
- SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END THIS MORNING.
- MILD TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1012 PM CST WED FEB 25 2026
A SHORTWAVE IS TRACKING THROUGH THE AREA WITH A BOUNDARY CURRENTLY
SITUATED JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF MIDDLE TN. WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW
ONGOING ALL DAY, MOISTURE ADVECTION HAS IMPROVED THE PWAT WITH THE
VALUE COMING IN AT 0.85" ON THIS EVENING'S SOUNDING. ALL OF THIS HAS
RESULTED IN WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY. HIGH RAIN CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT
TRACKS SOUTH THROUGH MIDDLE TN. RAIN WILL COME TO AN END FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHWEST BETWEEN 7AM AND 10AM WITH DRY CONDITIONS
RETURNING FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL BE
ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER, BUT NOT ENOUGH TO
WARRANT ANY CONCERNS FOR SEVERE WEATHER. BY THE TIME RAIN HAS COME
TO AN END THURSDAY MORNING, RAIN TOTALS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM
0.25 TO 0.50 INCHES ACROSS THE NORTHWEST TO 1 TO 1.5 INCHES ACROSS
THE EAST. AMOUNTS OF 2 INCHES AREN'T OUT OF THE QUESTION EITHER.
LATEST HREF PROBABILITIES OF 30-50% HIGHLIGHT THE CORRIDOR FROM
COOKEVILLE TO CROSSVILLE AS HAVING THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR THESE
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL WARM INTO THE MID-50S TO LOW-
60S. CLOUDS WILL STICK AROUND FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON, BUT WILL
GRADUALLY LESSEN IN COVERAGE IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. DRY
CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING UP. IT
SHOULD BE A GORGEOUS DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1012 PM CST WED FEB 25 2026
GORGEOUS WEATHER CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER-60S TO LOW-70S WITH LOTS OF SUNSHINE. BY SUNDAY, AN UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE TRACKING TO OUR NORTH, SENDING A COLD FRONT
SOUTH. MODEL VARIABILITY IN TEMPERATURES INCREASES ON SUNDAY DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY IN HOW FAR SOUTH THIS COOLER AIR GETS. THE COOLER SIDE
OF THIS FRONT LOOKS TO HAVE HIGHS IN THE 50S, BUT ON THE WARMER
SIDE, HIGHS WILL BE SIMILAR TO SATURDAY IN THE UPPER-60S TO LOW-70S.
OTHERWISE, THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE UNSETTLED THROUGH AT LEAST
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK WITH A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES, AND OFF-
AND-ON LOW TO MEDIUM RAIN CHANCES REENTER THE FORECAST LATE SUNDAY
INTO NEXT WEEK WITH MILD TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 60S
CONTINUING AS WE HEAD INTO MARCH.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 521 AM CST THU FEB 26 2026
RAIN AT THE TERMINALS WILL COME TO AN END THIS MORNING BUT LOW CIGS
WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE DAY. CIGS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE FROM
LIFR/IFR TO MVFR AT SRB/CSV. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR AT
BNA/MQY/CKV AROUND 00Z. THERE IS A LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCE FOG DEVELOPS
OVERNIGHT AT CSV/SRB/CKV ESPECIALLY AFTER 06Z. WINDS WILL HAVE A
NORTHERLY COMPONENT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY
AROUND OR UNDER 6 KTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 61 39 66 40 / 50 0 0 0
CLARKSVILLE 59 36 66 40 / 30 0 0 0
CROSSVILLE 58 38 63 38 / 80 0 0 0
COLUMBIA 63 40 67 39 / 60 10 0 0
COOKEVILLE 58 38 63 40 / 70 0 0 0
JAMESTOWN 55 35 62 37 / 70 0 0 0
LAWRENCEBURG 63 40 66 40 / 70 10 0 0
MURFREESBORO 61 40 66 37 / 60 0 0 0
WAVERLY 61 38 66 41 / 30 0 0 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...CLEMENTS
LONG TERM....CLEMENTS
AVIATION.....REAGAN
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