079
FXUS64 KOHX 231740
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1240 PM CDT FRI OCT 23 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1237 PM CDT FRI OCT 23 2026
- MILD, SUNNY DAYS AND COOL, CLEAR NIGHTS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE.
- NO RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
- DROUGHT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO WORSEN.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1115 AM CDT FRI OCT 23 2026
THERE ARE NO SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES TO THE FORECAST TODAY. AN
ANOMALOUSLY STRONG UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AND A
BROAD AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES
TO THE GULF WILL MAINTAIN THE CURRENT WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS
MIDDLE TN. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL REACH THE 70S WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE SEASONABLY CHILLY, MOSTLY IN THE 40S. THE ONLY OTHER NOTEWORTHY
FEATURE WILL BE PATCHY DAYBREAK FOG ALONG LAKES AND RIVERS.
DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO BRING CONCERNS FOR FIRES AND WORSENING
DROUGHT. THANKFULLY, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY LIGHT.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1115 AM CDT FRI OCT 23 2026
COPY+PASTE - THIS IS ONE OF THE MOST STABLE PATTERNS I CAN
REMEMBER WITH TEMPS HITTING THE SAME MARKS DAY AFTER DAY. DRY WITH
WORSENING DROUGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
THE OPERATIONAL GFS SHOWS RAIN (LIQUID WATER IN THE FORM OF
DROPLETS FALLING FROM CLOUDS TO THE GROUND) MOVING IN LATE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY (HALLOWEEN). ENS/GEFS/GEPS ENSEMBLE MEAN COMES IN
AT ONLY 30 PERCENT CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE RAIN SATURDAY.
INTERESTINGLY, THOSE PERCENTAGES GO UP CONSIDERABLY IN ALL
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FOR THE START OF NOVEMBER. THAT'S A LONG TIME OUT
FOR MODELS, AND DROUGHTS ARE STUBBORN, BUT THERE IS SOME HOPE.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT FRI OCT 23 2026
VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL TAF SITES WITH LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS
(< 10 KTS) THIS AFTERNOON, SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. THE ONLY QUESTION IS FOG AT CSV/SRB TOMORROW MORNING.
DUE TO WHAT SEEMS TO BE EVEN DRIER CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON, I
WILL OPT TO KEEP FOG OUT OF THE TAFS FOR NOW. IT MAY NEED TO BE
ADDED IN SUBSEQUENT ISSUANCES, BUT THIS LIKELIHOOD IS LOW.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 48 78 48 77 / 0 0 0 0
CLARKSVILLE 44 79 47 78 / 0 0 0 0
CROSSVILLE 41 71 42 71 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBIA 47 78 46 77 / 0 0 0 0
COOKEVILLE 46 73 46 73 / 0 0 0 0
JAMESTOWN 43 72 44 72 / 0 0 0 0
LAWRENCEBURG 46 76 45 75 / 0 0 0 0
MURFREESBORO 47 78 46 77 / 0 0 0 0
WAVERLY 47 76 48 77 / 0 0 0 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION.....UNGER
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