868
FXUS64 KOHX 050159
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
859 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2026
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 847 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2026
- A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED GUSTY WINDS AND
DOWNPOURS THIS EVENING.
- THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5) FOR SEVERE STORMS
ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING.
- THE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK IS NOT AS HOT, BUT STILL QUITE WARM
AND HUMID WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 847 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2026
CONVECTION IS ONGOING AS WE HEAD DEEPER INTO THE EVENING. AT THIS
TIME, A BROAD SWATH OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS MAKING ITS WAY
ACROSS THE CLARKSVILLE AREA WITH NO SIGNS OF ABATING. THE PRIMARY
FORCING MECHANISM APPEARS TO BE A SHORTWAVE APPROACHING MIDDLE
TENNESSEE FROM THE WEST. THERE IS PLENTY OF AVAILABLE ENERGY WITH
THIS ENVIRONMENT, AS THE 00Z SOUNDING FROM OHX SHOWS A SBCAPE IN
EXCESS OF 2,800 J/KG AND A LIFTED INDEX OF -6. LAPSE RATES ARE
ANEMIC AND LOW-LEVEL WINDS SHEAR IS NON-EXISTENT. PRECIPITABLE
WATER IS 1.56", WHICH PUTS US SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE DAILY MEAN
VALUE. MID-LEVELS ARE RELATIVELY DRY, BUT THERE IS OBVIOUSLY
ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE STILL PRESENT TO SUPPORT CONVECTION. THE
SEVERE STORM THREAT IS VERY LOW, BUT UPDRAFTS ARE STILL STRONG
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE LIGHTNING, SO THIS WILL IMPACT OUTDOOR EVENTS
WELL INTO THE EVENING.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1120 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2026
THE 12Z OHX UPPER AIR DATA SHOWED A "WORKED OVER" ATMOSPHERE WITH
MUCH LESS CONVECTIVE ENERGY AFTER YESTERDAY'S WIDESPREAD STORMS.
CONDITIONS SHOULD STAY QUIET INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON, THEN WE
WILL SEE 20-30 PERCENT COVERAGE OF SCATTERED STORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALONG WITH MUCH LESS COVERAGE THAN
YESTERDAY, THE INTENSITY WILL BE LOWER WITH JUST ISOLATED GUSTY
WINDS AND DOWNPOURS. WE WILL NEED TO KEEP EYES TO THE SKIES AND ON
RADAR, BUT MOST CELEBRATIONS AND FIREWORKS SHOULD BE IN GOOD
SHAPE.
THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR SOME TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT INDEX VALUES LASTS
UNTIL 8 PM. IT IS NOT AS HOT TODAY AS IT HAS BEEN, BUT STILL
WARMER THAN USUAL, SO JUST BE CAREFUL AND STAY HYDRATED.
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND, CONDITIONS WILL BE VERY WARM AND
HUMID, BUT NOT UNUSUALLY SO. WE WILL NOT POST HEAT HEADLINES FOR
SUNDAY WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO REACH THE MORE TYPICAL UPPER 80S AND
LOWER 90S AND PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 100. THE STRONG RIDGE
WILL BE GONE AND A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL BE COMING IN FROM
THE WEST NORTHWEST. THIS WILL SET US UP FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS, MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. WE ARE NOT
UNDER A SEVERE OUTLOOK, BUT A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS
WILL BE POSSIBLE- A PRETTY COMMON SCENARIO FOR SUMMERTIME.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1120 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2026
THROUGH THE WEEK AHEAD, OUR AREA WILL BE IN A WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH PATTERN WITH A DIFFUSE SURFACE BOUNDARY NEAR THE AREA.
THIS WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY, MAINLY IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THERE WILL BE A COUPLE OF
STRONGER WAVES THAT WILL ENHANCE COVERAGE AT TIMES. THE GREATEST
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS INDICATED MONDAY AND FRIDAY
WITH LOW TO MEDIUM COVERAGE BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS.
HIGHS THROUGH THE WEEK WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S
AND LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. NO ORGANIZED SEVERE
WX THREAT IS APPARENT AT THIS TIME, BUT A FEW STORMS WITH DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS CANNOT BE RULED OUT DURING THE PEAK
HEATING TIMES EACH DAY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 606 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THIS EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS MAY IMPACT TERMINALS, WITH HIGHEST CHANCES FOR KCKV
THIS EVENING. LOW TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON FOG FOR KCSV AND KSRB
OVERNIGHT. HIGHER CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
TOMORROW AFTERNOON, BUT COVERAGE AND TIMING STILL NOT CONFIDENT
ENOUGH FOR PREDOMINANT MENTION IN THE FORECAST. LEFT PROB30 FOR
NOW TO END OFF THE TAF PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 74 92 73 90 / 30 40 30 60
CLARKSVILLE 73 91 72 89 / 30 40 30 50
CROSSVILLE 69 87 68 86 / 30 50 20 70
COLUMBIA 72 92 71 90 / 30 50 40 60
COOKEVILLE 70 88 70 86 / 20 50 30 60
JAMESTOWN 69 87 68 86 / 20 50 30 60
LAWRENCEBURG 71 90 70 88 / 20 50 40 70
MURFREESBORO 72 93 72 92 / 30 50 30 60
WAVERLY 72 91 71 89 / 40 40 40 60
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE.......ROSE
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION.....BARNWELL
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