697
FXUS64 KOHX 250416
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1016 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1011 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2026
- LOW RAIN CHANCES DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH WIDESPREAD
RAIN DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
- GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH PERSISTS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
- MILD TEMPERATURES THIS THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1011 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2026
SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS EVENING SHOWS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TRACKING
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AREA WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH.
BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS, A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS IN PLACE,
RESULTING IN CONTINUED GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 20 TO
25 MPH WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES WILL ALSO BE IN PLACE OVERNIGHT, HELPING TO KEEP LOWS WARMER
COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER-30S TO LOW-
40S.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE TO START WEDNESDAY, BUT RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE ON THE RISE STARTING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE ADVECTION
WILL CONTINUE DUE TO THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH PWATS RISING TO NEAR
ONE INCH BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT DROPPING
SOUTH, LOW RAIN CHANCES WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH RAIN
BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY. VERY
STRONG WIND SHEAR WILL STILL BE IN PLACE, BUT INSTABILITY
CONTINUES TO BE THE LIMITING FACTOR. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH DECENT MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 6.5-7
C/KM WHICH WILL ALLOW A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. BUT STILL, SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.
HIGHEST RAIN IS STILL EXPECTED TO FAVOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA
WITH LATEST NBM PROBABILITIES GIVING 40-55% CHANCE FOR RAIN TOTALS
OVER AN INCH BY THURSDAY EVENING. AMOUNTS OVER 1.5 INCHES ARE LOW
WITH THAT CHANCE DOWN TO 20-30% FOR AREAS AROUND COOKEVILLE AND TO
THE EAST.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1011 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2026
RAIN WILL COME TO AN END BY THURSDAY EVENING, BUT DESPITE THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE, OUR TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE 60S, AND THEN BY SATURDAY,
TEMPERATURES WILL MAKE IT INTO THE LOW-70S FOR AREAS WEST OF THE
PLATEAU. WITH DRY CONDITIONS, IT LOOKS TO BE A BEAUTIFUL WEEKEND.
LOW RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN TO THE FORECAST THOUGH LATE SUNDAY
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE APPROACHES.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 529 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2026
A SURFACE RIDGE HAS SET UP TO THE EAST OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE, SO
WINDS HAVE INCREASED FROM THE SSW TODAY. LOOK FOR STRONG SURFACE
WINDS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY, AND ALSO LLWS WILL
FURTHER DEVELOP AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT IS NOW
SITUATED TO OUR NORTHWEST. WE DO EXPECT CEILINGS TO LOWER TO MVFR
BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY EDGES CLOSER TO THE
MID STATE, WITH SPOTTY SHOWERS DEVELOPING BY EVENING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 41 60 46 60 / 0 30 90 70
CLARKSVILLE 41 60 43 57 / 10 20 80 60
CROSSVILLE 36 52 45 57 / 10 30 90 80
COLUMBIA 39 59 49 62 / 0 30 80 70
COOKEVILLE 38 54 46 57 / 10 30 90 80
JAMESTOWN 37 52 43 56 / 10 30 80 80
LAWRENCEBURG 39 59 49 62 / 0 30 90 80
MURFREESBORO 40 59 49 61 / 0 30 90 70
WAVERLY 41 58 46 60 / 0 20 80 60
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...CLEMENTS
LONG TERM....CLEMENTS
AVIATION.....ROSE
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