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FXUS64 KOHX 161730
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1230 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1225 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2026
- LOW CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACROSS FAR NORTHERN
MIDDLE TENNESSE THROUGH THIS EVENING. SEVERE RISK IS VERY LOW.
- SUMMER-LIKE TEMPERATURES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS
REACHING THE LOW-90S WEST OF THE PLATEAU.
- MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS MID NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1145 AM CDT SAT MAY 16 2026
A VORTICITY MAXIMA IS MOVING OUT OF THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY CURRENTLY. THIS IS EMBEDDED IN AN AREA OF
HIGHER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY OFF TO OUR WEST WHICH WILL
GRADUALLY MOVE INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE BY LATE AFTERNOON. WHILE
MOST THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED IN KENTUCKY NEAR THE VORT
MAX, A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN FAR NORTHWEST/NORTH
MIDDLE TENNESSEE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AFTER CAPPING
ERODES. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE FAIRLY STEEP ON OBSERVED AND
FORECAST SOUNDINGS. THUS, THIS ACTIVITY COULD PRODUCE A STRONG
WIND GUST OR SMALL/MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL, BUT THE OVERALL SEVERE
THREAT IS VERY LOW SINCE MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR NORTH
IN KENTUCKY. JUST SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON THROUGH THE EVENING.
OTHERWISE, WE REMAIN ON A WARMING TREND WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOW 90S POSSIBLE WEST OF THE PLATEAU TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1145 AM CDT SAT MAY 16 2026
LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH INDICATES CONTINUED ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IN THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. WHILE WE REMAIN IN
ONGOING DROUGHT, THERE'S GOOD NEWS IN THE FORECAST FOR WIDESPREAD
RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH PUSHES EAST OUT OF THE PLAINS. THIS WILL NUDGE HIGHER
MOISTURE CONTENT AND FORCING CLOSER TO OUR AREA AND PROVIDE
MEANINGFUL RAIN CHANCES TO OUR DRY SOILS. IT'S TOO EARLY TO
PREDICT ANY HAZARDOUS WEATHER WITH THE ARRIVAL OF COLD FRONT BUT
WE CERTAINLY WELCOME ANY RAIN WE CAN GET.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST THIS TAF CYCLE. A SCATTERED CLOUD DECK
AROUND 3500 FT IS OVERSPREADING MIDDLE TN, AND DOWNSTREAM OBS SHOW
HIGHER CLOUDS EVENTUALLY FILTERING THIS EVENING, SO A CHANGE IN
FLIGHT CATEGORY IS NOT ANTICIPATED. VERY LOW CHANCE FOR AN
ISOLATED STORM THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY NEAR BNA AND CKV. CHANCES
ARE TOO LOW TO WARRANT AN INCLUSION IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE BREEZY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, RELAXING
AFTER 00Z.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 64 92 68 92 / 10 0 0 0
CLARKSVILLE 64 91 68 91 / 20 0 0 0
CROSSVILLE 59 86 63 86 / 10 0 10 10
COLUMBIA 61 90 65 90 / 10 0 0 0
COOKEVILLE 61 88 66 88 / 10 0 0 10
JAMESTOWN 59 89 64 89 / 10 0 0 10
LAWRENCEBURG 61 88 66 88 / 10 0 0 0
MURFREESBORO 62 91 66 91 / 10 0 0 0
WAVERLY 65 91 68 91 / 10 0 0 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...SIZEMORE
LONG TERM....SIZEMORE
AVIATION.....BAGGETT
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