851
FXUS64 KOHX 150108
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
708 PM CST SAT FEB 14 2026
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 708 PM CST SAT FEB 14 2026
- INCREASING RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH RAINFALL
BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
- 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN IS FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. NO
MAJOR FLOODING ISSUES EXPECTED.
- WARMER TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK AND MAINLY DRY THROUGH THURSDAY.
LOW TO MEDIUM RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 708 PM CST SAT FEB 14 2026
LIGHT RAIN IS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST THIS EVENING, AND WILL
REMAIN IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A NICE,
SOAKING RAIN, WITH 1-2" STILL ESTIMATED TO BE OUR TOTAL RAINFALL.
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1145 AM CST SAT FEB 14 2026
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
CURRENTLY AND IS GRADUALLY APPROACHING MIDDLE TENNESSEE. MAINLY
WE'RE EXPERIENCING UPPER-LEVEL CLOUDS FOR NOW AS THE LOW-LEVELS
REMAINS QUITE DRY WITH CONTINENTAL AIR WEDGED THOUGH THE
APPALACHIANS. THE DRY LOW-LEVEL AIR WILL EVENTUALLY LET GO BY LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A SOUTHERLY 850 MB JET EXTENDS INTO THE
TN VALLEY PROVIDING MORE SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION. RAIN CHANCES MAKE NOTABLE INCREASES FROM THE WEST
DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS THANKS TO THESE MOISTURE
INCREASES AND FORCING FOR ASCENT. I THINK WE'LL SEE PASSING LIGHT
TO MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS INITIALLY, BUT A MORE STEADY BAND OF
STRATIFORM RAIN NEAR/ALONG THE I-40 CORRIDOR AS WE HEAD INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. AS THE LOW CONTINUES EAST, COOLER/DRIER AIR IS
EXPECTED TO WRAP AROUND WHICH WILL CAUSE A GRADUAL DECREASING IN
COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF RAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WE STILL EXPECT 1-2"
OF TOTAL RAIN OVERALL WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN 2/3 OF MIDDLE TN. NO MAJOR FLOODING ISSUES ARE EXPECTED,
BUT SOME PONDING ON ROADS OR LOW-LYING AREAS IS POSSIBLE DURING
HEAVIEST RAIN.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1129 AM CST SAT FEB 14 2026
AFTER THE DEPARTURE OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ON SUNDAY EVENING,
IMPROVING WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS WE HEAD INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. DESPITE INITIALLY BEING ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE EXITING
UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH, THE OVERALL FLOW WILL SUPPORT
HEIGHT RISES AS A LOW-AMPLITUDE RIDGE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN CONUS. THIS FAVORS A WELCOME PERIOD OF WARMER
TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK, SHY OF SOME
RECORD HIGHS PERHAPS MID WEEK. THE OVERALL FORECAST IS DRY
THROUGH THURSDAY BUT MEDIUM-RANGE GUIDANCE/ENSEMBLES BRING
ANOTHER SYSTEM TO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH RAIN
SHOWERS NEAR AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 507 PM CST SAT FEB 14 2026
WHILE VFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY IN PLACE, CONDITIONS WILL
CHANGE LATE THIS EVENING AS A SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
LIGHT RAIN IS MOVING INTO MIDDLE TN AT THE START OF THIS TAF
PERIOD AND WILL IMPACT TERMINALS THROUGH 06Z WITH DECREASING CIGS
AND VISIBILITIES. WIDESPREAD HEAVIER RAIN WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
AFTER 06Z ALONG WITH MVFR CIGS. IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY AT ALL
TERMINALS BY 12Z THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH PERSISTING LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN. RAIN WILL COME TO AN END LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTHERLY, BUT IMPROVEMENT OUT OF IFR WILL BE
SLOW. BNA'S CIGS LOOK TO IMPROVE TO MVFR AROUND 02Z TOMORROW.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 48 57 42 65 / 90 100 0 0
CLARKSVILLE 48 56 39 65 / 90 90 0 0
CROSSVILLE 43 52 38 64 / 80 100 20 0
COLUMBIA 47 57 41 66 / 90 100 10 0
COOKEVILLE 45 54 40 64 / 80 100 10 0
JAMESTOWN 42 52 38 63 / 80 100 10 0
LAWRENCEBURG 48 58 42 66 / 80 100 10 0
MURFREESBORO 47 57 42 66 / 90 100 10 0
WAVERLY 47 55 40 65 / 90 90 0 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE.......HOLLEY
SHORT TERM...SIZEMORE
LONG TERM....SIZEMORE
AVIATION.....CLEMENTS
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