628
FXUS64 KOHX 311715
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1215 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1215 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2026
- HOT WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S WEST OF THE PLATEAU THIS
WEEK.
- MAJOR TO EXTREME HEAT RISK IS EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK
WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE TRIPLE DIGITS. WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY SHOULD BE THE MOST IMPACTFUL DAYS OF THE WEEK.
- VERY LOW RAIN CHANCES THROUGH MIDWEEK.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1049 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2026
Y'ALL THOUGHT THAT JUST BECAUSE SEPTEMBER ARRIVES TOMORROW THAT
SUMMER WAS OVER, DIDN'T YOU? INCORRECT. FOR ALL OF YOU SUMMER-LOVERS
OUT THERE, THE TREAT OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY LOOKS TO CONTINUE FOR AT
LEAST THE NEXT 6 DAYS. THE CULPRIT IN THIS LATE-SUMMER HEAT PUSH IS
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT HAS EXERTED ITSELF OVER THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE U.S. THE PROBLEM IS, THAT RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOW 70S, MAJOR
TO EXTREME HEAT RISK PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED TO ARISE FOR A GOOD
CHUNK OF MIDDLE TN. AFTER DISCUSSIONS WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES,
WHILE IT WILL BE WARM AND HUMID TOMORROW, WE'RE GOING TO FOCUS ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS BEING THE HOTTEST DAYS OF THE WEEK. FOR
NOW, WE'LL HOLD OFF ON ANY HEADLINES UNTIL AT LEAST THE NEXT
FORECAST PACKAGE FOR CONSISTENT MESSAGING. AS A SIDE NOTE, I DON'T
THINK ANY TEMPERATURE RECORDS ARE IN SERIOUS JEOPARDY AT BNA, BUT
WEDNESDAY COULD BE CLOSE (99 SET IN 2011). OF COURSE, WITH THE
RIDGE IN PLACE, RAIN AND STORMS CHANCES WILL BE CLOSE TO NIL, BUT
I AM GOING TO INCLUDE A TINY, VERY LOW CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR
STORM ON THE PLATEAU THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES HAVE
BEEN MET AND CU FIELDS ARE ALREADY PRETTY HEALTHY OVER THE
PLATEAU. CAMS DO SHOW A LITTLE DEVELOPMENT, SO I DON'T WANT TO
HAVE NO POPS OVER THERE.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1049 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2026
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THE RIDGE WILL START TO BREAK
DOWN TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS IS BEING SHOWN IN THE
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE STARTING FRIDAY. YES, IT'LL STILL BE HOT AND
HUMID, BUT THE HEAT RISK SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY LESS. AS WE MOVE INTO
THE WEEKEND AND LABOR DAY, WE CONTINUE TO SEE TEMPERATURES BACK OFF
A BIT AS THE RIDGE SLIPS OFF TO THE WEST. SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL PROBABLY STILL BE WITH US, BUT NOT AS INTENSE
AS THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK. THE STINKER IS, IF WE START TO LOSE THE
RIDGE THIS WEEKEND, THAT MEANS LOW TO MEDIUM STORM CHANCES WILL
LIKELY START TO CREEP BACK INTO THE FORECAST. NOTHING ORGANIZED, BUT
DIURNAL, SUMMER-TIME THUNDERSTORMS WITH AT LEAST A LOW WIND RISK
WOULD RE-ENTER THE FORECAST.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE DURATION OF THE TAF PERIOD. THERE
IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR AN AFTERNOON SHOWER FOR EASTERN TAF SITES
(SRB & CSV), BUT EVERYONE ELSE SHOULD REMAIN CLEAR. WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT AND STAY THAT WAY THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 74 97 75 98 / 0 0 0 0
CLARKSVILLE 72 97 73 98 / 0 0 0 0
CROSSVILLE 69 91 71 92 / 0 0 0 10
COLUMBIA 72 98 73 98 / 0 0 0 0
COOKEVILLE 71 93 72 94 / 0 0 0 0
JAMESTOWN 71 91 72 93 / 0 0 0 0
LAWRENCEBURG 71 96 73 97 / 0 0 0 0
MURFREESBORO 72 98 73 99 / 0 0 0 0
WAVERLY 73 96 74 97 / 0 0 0 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...UNGER
LONG TERM....UNGER
AVIATION.....HOLLEY
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