021
FXUS64 KOHX 081718
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1218 PM CDT TUE SEP 8 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1217 PM CDT TUE SEP 8 2026
- A HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR NORTHWEST MIDDLE TN
WEDNESDAY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM FOR HEAT INDICIES OF 105 DEGREES.
- ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 90S
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK.
- RAIN AND STORM CHANCES RETURN THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1152 AM CDT TUE SEP 8 2026
HIGH PRESSURE HAS SOLIDLY RETURNED OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND WE'LL SEE
DRIER AND HOTTER CONDITIONS TODAY THROUGH A CHUNK OF THE DAY
THURSDAY. HIGHS TODAY WILL REACH INTO THE LOW 90S WITH PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL REACH NEAR 100 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON,
SO BE SURE TO STAY HYDRATED AND SHADED IF OUTDOORS. QUIET AND WARM
OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 70S AND A FEW ISOLATED INSTANCES OF FOG.
THE HIGH PRESSURE BULLSEYE WILL BE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY,
MAKING IT THE HOTTEST DAY WE'LL EXPERIENCE THIS WEEK. PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST MIDDLE TN COULD SEE HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 105 WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON, PROMPTING A HEAT ADVISORY THAT WILL BE IN EFFECT FROM
10AM TO 7PM. SIMILAR TO TODAY, BE SURE TO TAKE YOUR PRECAUTIONS IF
YOU HAVE OUTDOOR INTERESTS.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1152 AM CDT TUE SEP 8 2026
HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BREAK DOWN ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF A
PATTERN CHANGE THAT WILL PUSH A FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. BEFORE THIS
FRONT HOWEVER, THURSDAY WILL STILL BE QUITE HOT. HIGHS WILL REMAIN
IN THE LOW TO MID 90S WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES SLIGHTLY LOWER, BUT
STILL IN THE TRIPLE DIGIT RANGE. A SHORTWAVE WILL DIP INTO THE AREA
THURSDAY AFTERNOON, BRINGING A MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCE FOR RAIN AND
STORMS BACK INTO THE FORECAST. RAIN CHANCES WILL JUMP UP TO THE 60-
80% RANGE THURSDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY OUT AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD
FRONT THAT WILL EVENTUALLY PUSH THROUGH FRIDAY. THE THREAT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER WITH THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO LOOK LOW, THOUGH THERE
WILL BE A BUMP IN BULK SHEAR VALUES TO AROUND 30 KTS. MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE POOR, GENERALLY LESS THAN 6 C/KM, BUT AMPLE
INSTABILITY AND LIFT WILL BE IN PLACE TO HELP GET SOME STORMS GOING.
THE STRONGEST STORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS. LOW TO MEDIUM RAIN
CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY AS THE FRONT PUSHES
SOUTHEAST WITH CHANCES AREAWIDE BETWEEN 30-50%. MOVING INTO THE
WEEKEND, WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL CONTINUE TO DIP INTO THE AREA, KEEPING
20-40% RAIN AND STORM CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ALSO START BUILDING EAST BACK INTO THE AREA, SENDING
OUR TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY BACK UP INTO THE MID 90S BY SUNDAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1217 PM CDT TUE SEP 8 2026
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MID-LEVEL CLOUDS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH LINGERING HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. SOUTHERLY
WINDS UP TO 12 KNOTS BECOMING LIGHT AFTER 00Z.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 73 94 73 94 / 0 0 0 30
CLARKSVILLE 73 95 74 93 / 0 0 10 60
CROSSVILLE 63 86 64 87 / 0 0 0 10
COLUMBIA 70 95 70 96 / 0 0 0 10
COOKEVILLE 68 89 68 90 / 0 0 0 20
JAMESTOWN 66 87 68 87 / 0 0 0 20
LAWRENCEBURG 69 92 69 94 / 0 0 0 0
MURFREESBORO 70 95 70 96 / 0 0 0 10
WAVERLY 73 94 73 93 / 0 0 0 30
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR TNZ005>007-
023>027.
SHORT TERM...BAGGETT
LONG TERM....BAGGETT
AVIATION.....MUELLER
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