049
FXUS64 KOHX 300352
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1052 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1050 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2026
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MONDAY.
- A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF LOCALIZED
FLOODING.
- DRIER CONDITIONS NEXT WEEK WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1050 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2026
MIDDLE TN WILL STAY IN THE SOUPY AIR MASS THROUGH SATURDAY. WE HAD
AN ARC OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED STORMS LIFTING ACROSS THE AREA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, ASSOCIATED WITH A BAND OF EXTREMELY
HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES. THIS BAND OF DEEP
MOISTURE WILL PIVOT BACK DOWN ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY, WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS BUBBLING UP AGAIN, ESPECIALLY
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. MODELS SHOW LESS LIFT THAN
FRIDAY AND GENERALLY LOWER COVERAGE OF RAIN. BUT WHERE RAIN FALLS,
IT COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY GIVEN THE MOISTURE LADEN ATMOSPHERE.
ACTIVITY WILL MOSTLY DIE OFF SATURDAY NIGHT AS WE GET INTO ANOTHER
BACKDOOR FRONT SITUATION LIKE WE HAD THURSDAY EVENING WITH DRIER
AIR PUSHING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST.
ON SUNDAY, THE MOISTURE PROFILE INCREASES AGAIN AS ANOTHER WAVE
DRIFTS OVER THE AREA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS.
OUR MESSAGING ABOUT STORMS REMAINS THE SAME AS THE ENTIRE PAST
WEEK- THERE COULD BE SOME STRONG GUSTY STORMS, BUT WE ARE NOT
LOOKING FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS THIS WEEKEND.
ASIDE FROM THE SHOWERS AND STORMS, CONDITIONS WILL STAY MUGGY WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S AND LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 60S.
AREAS OF LATE NIGHT FOG WILL FORM WHERE CLOUD BREAKS DEVELOP.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1050 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2026
THE LAST POCKETS OF DEEP MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BRING A
FINAL OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY BEFORE
STRONGER NORTH FLOW FINALLY KICKS IN WITH MUCH DRIER AND MORE
STABLE AIR STARTING TUESDAY. MIDWEEK WILL BRING A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE WITH PLEASANT TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY LEVELS.
LOW RAIN CHANCES CREEP INTO THE FORECAST LATE WEEK, BUT NOTHING
PERSISTENT LIKE THE PATTERN WE HAVE BEEN IN FOR THE PAST 10 DAYS.
THE EXTENDED FORECAST LATE WEEK SHOWS A MORE TYPICAL EARLY SUMMER
PATTERN WITH WARMING HIGH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 80S AND LOWS
IN THE 60S.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 619 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2026
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
FEW HOURS WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT EXCEPT FOR OVER THE
PLATEAU WHERE SHOWERS WILL LINGER. MVFR/IFR IN ANY SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS. CIGS WILL START TO LOWER THIS EVENING LOWER TO MVFR
BY 03Z AND DOWN TO IFR AFTER 09Z. MVFR VIS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
AT TIMES OVERNIGHT. CIGS WILL START TO COME UP AFTER 15Z WITH
THEM RETURNING TO VFR FOR MOST TERMINALS BY 17Z. EASTERLY WINDS
UNDER 6 KNOTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 66 83 64 83 / 30 50 20 60
CLARKSVILLE 66 82 62 83 / 30 40 10 30
CROSSVILLE 63 77 58 77 / 50 50 10 60
COLUMBIA 65 83 63 83 / 20 50 20 70
COOKEVILLE 64 80 60 80 / 50 50 10 60
JAMESTOWN 62 79 55 81 / 50 40 0 60
LAWRENCEBURG 65 81 64 81 / 20 60 20 70
MURFREESBORO 65 83 63 83 / 30 50 20 70
WAVERLY 66 83 64 84 / 20 50 20 50
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION.....MUELLER
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