197
FXUS64 KOHX 160526
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1226 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1224 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2026
- WARMER AND MORE HUMID THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
- HIGH RAIN AND STORM CHANCES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HEAVY RAINFALL
POSSIBLE. THERE IS A LOW THREAT FOR STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY
WINDS.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1035 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2026
THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, MOST OF THE WX ACTION WILL OCCUR
TO OUR NORTH AND SOUTH. LOOKING NORTH, A COUPLE OF LOW PRESSURE
CENTERS WILL BRING A SEVERE STORM RISK ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY
AND OHIO VALLEY. TO OUR SOUTH, A STALLED FRONTAL ZONE WILL TAP
INTO TROPICAL MOISTURE TO BRING SOME HEAVY RAINFALL MAINLY SOUTH
OF I-20. HERE IN MIDDLE TN, THE MAIN STORY WILL BE INCREASING
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY AS LOW LEVEL WINDS INCREASE FROM THE
SOUTH. HIGH TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS WILL CLIMB ABOUT 5 DEGREES
EACH DAY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE SYSTEM TO OUR NORTH MAY PUSH
A BOUNDARY DOWN OUR WAY WITH A STRAY SHOWER LATE TUESDAY, BUT FOR
THE MOST PART, RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. OVERNIGHT PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE, MAINLY IN
VALLEYS.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1035 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2026
WET WX IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THURSDAY AND CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY.
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT, EXPECTED TO ARRIVE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AT THE SAME TIME,
DEEP MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A POTENTIAL TROPICAL SYSTEM ALONG
THE WESTERN GULF WILL CREEP NORTHWARD. THIS WILL BRING A SOAKING,
AND PERHAPS HEAVY RAINFALL PATTERN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THERE IS
A 40 TO 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF EXCEEDING 2 INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST HALF OF OUR AREA DURING THIS PERIOD. CERTAINLY,
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS. WE ARE NOT UNDER
A SEVERE STORM OUTLOOK AT THIS TIME, BUT SOME STORMS WITH GUSTY
WINDS WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING AS THE FRONT APPROACHES.
DRIER AIR WILL START TO MOVE IN BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND RAIN-FREE
CONDITIONS MAY HOLD THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE THE NEXT
DISTURBANCE KICKS OFF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS MONDAY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1224 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2026
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE AT THE SURFACE
AFFECTING MIDDLE TENNESSEE, ALTHOUGH THE UPPER FLOW HAS BECOME
MORE ZONAL AS WE START TO RESET FOR THE NEXT ACTIVE WEATHER
SYSTEM. STILL, WE CAN LOOK FORWARD TO AT LEAST ONE MORE DAY
WITHOUT ANY ACTIVE WEATHER. WE DO EXPECT RADIATION FOG DURING THE
EARLY MORNING PERIOD AT KCSV AND KSRB. OTHERWISE, LOOK FOR SURFACE
WINDS TO INCREASE FROM THE SW DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 86 66 90 76 / 0 10 0 20
CLARKSVILLE 84 64 89 76 / 0 10 0 20
CROSSVILLE 78 59 83 70 / 0 10 0 10
COLUMBIA 85 65 89 75 / 0 10 0 10
COOKEVILLE 80 62 85 72 / 0 10 0 20
JAMESTOWN 79 60 85 70 / 0 10 0 10
LAWRENCEBURG 82 64 86 73 / 0 10 0 10
MURFREESBORO 85 64 89 75 / 0 10 0 10
WAVERLY 84 64 89 75 / 0 10 0 20
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION.....ROSE
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page