473
FXUS64 KOHX 301051
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
451 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 443 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2026
- LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A 30 TO 50%
CHANCE OF ACCUMULATIONS UP TO ONE INCH ALONG THE PLATEAU, MAINLY
FRIDAY NIGHT. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED.
- DANGEROUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND. LOWS IN THE TEENS TO
SINGLE DIGITS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNING WITH WIND CHILL
VALUES NEAR OR BELOW ZERO BOTH MORNINGS.
- A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING AS MOST OF MIDDLE TN WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING DURING
THIS ENTIRE TIME FRAME.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1040 PM CST THU JAN 29 2026
THE BROAD, SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN HASN'T CHANGED MUCH IN SOME TIME
NOW. LONGWAVE TROUGHING HAS BEEN PERSISTENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CONUS WHICH HAS FAVORED BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND A CORRIDOR OF FLOW ALOFT FOR STORM SYSTEMS TO
TRACK. IN FACT, WE'RE IN LINE FOR THE NEXT UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEMS ON
FRIDAY WHICH WILL WORK IN CONCERT WITH EACH OTHER SOMEWHAT. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TO OUR SOUTHWEST CURRENTLY, WITH
A MORE POTENT UPPER-LOW DIVING SOUTH FROM ONTARIO. THE
COMBINATION OF A SURFACE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST, AND THE
UPPER-LOW TO OUR NORTH, WILL RESULT IN FLURRIES AND/OR LIGHT SNOW
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A DUSTING OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE FOR THE
EASTERN HALF OF MIDDLE TN, BUT THE PLATEAU LOOKS TO GET UP TO AN
INCH, POSSIBLY MORE IN SOME PLACES, FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. LATEST GUIDANCE FAVORS THIS QUITE WELL AND NBM
PROBABILITIES FOR 1" OR MORE RANGE 30-50% ACROSS THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY. GIVEN COLD SURFACE TEMPERATURES, SNOW WILL
LIKELY STICK TO ALL SURFACES FRIDAY NIGHT, INCLUDING ROADWAYS,
WHICH WILL CAUSE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL. WE'LL WATCH TRENDS FOR SNOW
AMOUNTS IN CASE THE ADVISORY NEEDS TO GRAB A FEW MORE COUNTIES AT
SOME POINT, BUT THANKFULLY THIS SYSTEM CONTAINS MUCH LESS MOISTURE
FOR OUR AREA THAN THE LAST ONE.
ONCE THE UPPER-LOW IS OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT, AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT
WILL BE PASSING THROUGH AS WELL. THIS WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO
FALL SIGNIFICANTLY INTO SATURDAY MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE 10S
AREAWIDE. WINDS OF 10-15 MPH WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILL VALUES
NEAR OR BELOW ZERO SATURDAY MORNING, AND SOME GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH
ARE POSSIBLE. THE COLD WILL CERTAINLY LEAD TO BIGGER IMPACTS THAN
THE LIGHT SNOW. A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT AS A
RESULT, AND THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING DUE TO A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF DANGEROUS COLD WEATHER AND LINGERING POWER
OUTAGES FROM THE RECENT WINTER STORM. BE SURE TO FOLLOW SAFE
OPERATION OF GENERATORS AND/OR SUPPLEMENTAL HEAT SOURCES.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1017 PM CST THU JAN 29 2026
SOME AIRMASS MODIFICATION IS EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK,
PARTICULARLY TUESDAY, AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST.
WHILE NOT SIGNIFICANT WARMTH, WE'LL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S. THIS IS A WARMER
TEMPERATURE FORECAST THAN THE PREVIOUS CYCLE, WHICH IS GOOD NEWS,
AND IS LIKELY DUE TO A STRONGER AREA OF WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF
THE NEXT SYSTEM EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY. THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION ON WEDNESDAY APPEARS TO BE RAIN, THOUGHT SOME WRAP-
AROUND MOISTURE COULD OCCUR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THAT COULD SUPPORT A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW FLURRIES INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. TOO EARLY TO SAY FOR CERTAIN AT THIS POINT.
UNFORTUNATELY WE'LL RETURN BACK TO BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES LATE
NEXT WEEK, BUT THERE'S NO CURRENT SIGNAL FOR DANGEROUS COLD
WEATHER AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 443 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2026
VFR CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR THROUGH THE MORNING AS SCATTERED LIGHT
SNOW OR FLURRIES DEVELOP. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN LIGHT SNOW IS ACROSS
THE PLATEAU WITH CHANCES DROPPING FOR WESTERN TERMINALS. MVFR
VISIBILITY WILL ALSO OCCUR IN SNOW SHOWERS. MVFR CIGS WILL THEN DROP
TO IFR FOR CSV AND SRB STARTING AROUND 00Z WITH SNOW SHOWERS
CONTINUING THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL GENERALLY
BE NORTHERLY WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 15-20 KNOTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 33 13 21 12 / 20 30 10 0
CLARKSVILLE 28 10 20 10 / 20 10 10 0
CROSSVILLE 36 10 18 6 / 30 50 20 0
COLUMBIA 35 13 24 11 / 10 20 0 0
COOKEVILLE 34 12 19 8 / 40 40 10 0
JAMESTOWN 31 9 17 6 / 50 40 20 0
LAWRENCEBURG 36 13 23 11 / 10 20 0 0
MURFREESBORO 35 13 23 11 / 20 30 0 0
WAVERLY 30 10 23 11 / 10 10 0 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST MONDAY
FOR TNZ005>011-023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO NOON CST SATURDAY FOR
TNZ011-032>034-065-066-080.
SHORT TERM...SIZEMORE
LONG TERM....SIZEMORE
AVIATION.....CLEMENTS
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