517
FXUS64 KOHX 080450
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1150 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1136 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2026
- SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE WEEK AND
WEEKEND. HEAT INDICES NEAR 100 DEGREES ARE POSSIBLE MID TO LATE
WEEK, MAINLY WEST OF THE PLATEAU.
- DAYTIME SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. AT THIS TIME, THE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS REMAINS VERY LOW,
BUT HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING CAN BE EXPECTED WITH
STRONGER, SLOWER-MOVING STORMS.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1136 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2026
EARLIER CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED BUT MOISTENED SOILS WILL
INCREASE CHANCES FOR RADIATIONAL FOG TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THERE'S ROUGHLY A 20-40% CHANCE FOR PATCHY DENSE FOG TO
DEVELOP ACROSS MIDDLE TN WITH LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVED RAIN EARLIER
TODAY BEING THE MOST LIKELY CANDIDATES.
TOMORROW WILL BE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO TODAY. AN UPPER LOW OVER
WESTERN KY/TN WILL DRIFT TO THE EAST AND BECOME MORE OF AN OPEN
SHORTWAVE TROUGH BY THE EVENING. WITH PLENTY OF INSTABILITY AND
PWATS IN THE 1.75-2"+ RANGE, SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN,
FREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND GUSTY WINDS. BULK SHEAR WILL BE MEAGER,
SO CHANCES ARE LOW FOR STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE. LIKE TODAY, THE
MORE LIKELY OUTCOME WILL BE STORMS PRODUCING TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS
THAT COULD CAUSE SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING CONCERNS.
WE'LL WARM UP A BIT ON THURSDAY WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MOVING IN
FROM THE WEST THANKS TO THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMING MORE ZONAL. THIS
MAY KEEP THE BULK OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RELEGATED TO THE EASTERN HALF OF MIDDLE TN, BUT ANY
STORM WILL STILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN WITH PWATS
AROUND 1.5-1.75". HEAT INDICIES WILL REACH THE UPPER-90S TO
LOW-100S ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1136 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2026
GREATER CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL RETURN FRIDAY-SATURDAY. THERE'S A LOW CHANCE FOR SEVERE
STORMS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, BUT SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH ALOFT
WILL PROVIDE MORE SHEAR THAN WE'VE SEEN OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-40. PWATS WILL CONTINUE TO BE HIGH,
MEANING ANY STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF HEAVY RAIN THAT COULD LEAD TO
LOCALIZED FLOODING CONCERNS. HEAT INDICES NEAR 100 REMAIN
POSSIBLE FOR AREAS GENERALLY WEST OF THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU
THROUGH SATURDAY.
NEXT WEEK LOOKS WARMER AND DRIER BUT WITHOUT CONCERN FOR
DANGEROUS HEAT INDICES LIKE LAST WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 634 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2026
A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY REMAINS STRETCHED ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE
THIS EVENING AND HAS PROVIDED THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION FOR MOST OF
THE AFTERNOON, WITH STILL CONSIDERABLE ACTIVITY ONGOING AS WE
HEAD INTO THE EVENING. IN THE NEAR TERM, KBNA AND KMQY ARE THE
MOST LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. OVERNIGHT, WE
ONCE AGAIN EXPECT WIDESPREAD FOG ACROSS THE REGION, ALTHOUGH WE'RE
NOT CONFIDENT THAT IFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP, SO WE'LL KEEP IT
MVFR FOR NOW AT ALL TERMINALS. TOMORROW, ONCE AGAIN, WE EXPECT
AFTERNOON CONVECTION TO DEVELOP WHICH WE'VE HANDLED WITH PROB30
REMARKS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 88 71 88 72 / 60 20 60 30
CLARKSVILLE 87 70 87 71 / 80 30 60 20
CROSSVILLE 82 66 82 66 / 70 20 70 30
COLUMBIA 88 69 88 70 / 50 20 50 20
COOKEVILLE 84 68 84 68 / 70 20 60 40
JAMESTOWN 83 66 83 66 / 70 20 70 40
LAWRENCEBURG 86 68 86 69 / 40 20 50 30
MURFREESBORO 89 70 88 70 / 50 20 60 30
WAVERLY 86 69 87 70 / 70 20 50 20
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...CAHILL
LONG TERM....CAHILL
AVIATION.....ROSE
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