730
FXUS64 KOHX 091647
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1147 AM CDT MON MAR 9 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1145 AM CDT MON MAR 9 2026
- PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
- MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5) FOR SEVERE STORMS OVER
SOUTHWEST MIDDLE TENNESSEE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE.
- SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OUT OF 5) FOR SEVERE STORMS AREA-WIDE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN
HAZARD.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1145 AM CDT MON MAR 9 2026
AFTER WIDESPREAD EARLY MORNING FOG, CLOUDS WERE DEVELOPING BREAKS.
MOST AREAS WILL SEE AT LEAST SOME SUNSHINE AND HIGHS IN THE 70S
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE THE NEXT ACTIVE SYSTEM ROLLS IN LATER
TODAY. THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS ALREADY CAUSING RAPID
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER ARKANSAS. AN MCS IS EXPECTED TO
FORM AND TRACK ACROSS NORTH MS/AL. THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THIS STORM
CLUSTER WILL IMPACT OUR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES WHERE THERE IS A
MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS. THE MAIN TIME FOR THIS WILL BE 4
PM TO 10 PM. CAPE VALUES WILL PEAK AROUND 1500 J/KG WITH NEAR 40KT
DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THIS WILL BRING A LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5 THREAT FOR
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.
ALTHOUGH THE MCS WILL PASS INTO GA THIS EVENING, IMPACTS FROM THE
SHORTWAVE WILL LINGER ALONG WITH WARM/MOIST ADVECTION. THIS WILL
RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS AREA-WIDE THROUGHOUT
TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY
ELEVATED ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER, STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AND FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES WILL BRING POTENTIAL FOR SOME
ROTATING CELLS WITH MAINLY SUB-SEVERE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH THE ENTIRE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE NATION IN A
WARM SECTOR. THE MAIN SOURCES OF FORCING WILL BE LOCATED TO OUR
EAST AND WELL OUT TO OUR WEST. BUT, A FEW MINOR IMPULSES COULD
KICK OFF ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LOW, BUT NOT ZERO. FOR MOST AREAS, IT
WILL BE DRY AND QUITE WARM TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS NEAR 80
AND LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE 60S.
WE WILL SEE THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS INCREASE AREA-WIDE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD
FRONT CONNECTING LOW PRESSURE CENTERS TO OUR NORTH AND SOUTH. AT
THIS TIME, THE SETUP LOOKS FAVORABLE FOR A QLCS WITH A SLIGHT RISK
(LEVEL 2 OUT OF 5) FOR DAMAGING WINDS. THE TORNADO THREAT IS LOW
BUT NOT ZERO, PARTICULARLY IF ANY CELLS DO MANAGE TO FORM OUT
AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE. OTHERWISE THE LINE WILL COME THROUGH WITH
POCKETS OF GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS. RIGHT NOW THE TIME
FRAME IS 4 PM TO MIDNIGHT.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1145 AM CDT MON MAR 9 2026
AFTER THE COLD FRONT, THURSDAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER AND BREEZY WITH
NW WINDS BETWEEN 15-20 MPH. HIGHS WILL REACH THE 50S WITH MAINLY
SUNNY SKIES. LATE WEEK INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND LOOKS
MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE. HIGHS REBOUND TO THE 60S FRIDAY AND 70S
SATURDAY.
SUNDAY WILL BE WARMER AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT WHICH COULD
BRING SHOWERS BY SUNDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 626 AM CDT MON MAR 9 2026
FG PRESENT AT MOST TAF SITES THIS MORNING, AND SHOULD DISSIPATE
INTO THE 15Z HOUR. THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 20Z, TS CHANCES INCREASE
IN THE AREA AND REMAIN FOR THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL
BE OUT OF THE SSW AROUND 5-10 KNOTS, WITH SOME SPORADIC GUSTS OF
UP TO 20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 77 63 80 67 / 20 70 30 30
CLARKSVILLE 77 63 80 67 / 20 60 20 30
CROSSVILLE 73 58 73 63 / 20 70 50 30
COLUMBIA 75 61 80 65 / 50 80 30 20
COOKEVILLE 73 60 75 65 / 20 70 50 30
JAMESTOWN 73 58 74 63 / 10 70 40 30
LAWRENCEBURG 74 61 79 65 / 40 80 30 20
MURFREESBORO 76 61 78 67 / 30 80 40 30
WAVERLY 74 61 78 66 / 30 70 20 30
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION.....HOLLEY
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