120
FXUS64 KOHX 030539
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1139 PM CST MON MAR 2 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1136 PM CST MON MAR 2 2026
- AFTERNOON HIGHS 10-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEK. A COUPLE
OF RECORDS MAY FALL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
- UNSETTLED WEATHER THIS WEEKEND WITH MEDIUM TO HIGH RAIN CHANCES.
THE RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER OR FLOODING IS VERY LOW, HOWEVER IF
YOU HAVE OUTDOOR PLANS THIS WEEKEND, YOU WILL WANT TO KEEP AN
EYE ON THE FORECAST.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1028 PM CST MON MAR 2 2026
LIGHT RAINS HAVE FINALLY EXITED MIDDLE TN AND WHILE CLOUDS REMAIN,
WE LOOK TO BE DONE WITH THE RAIN THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER WITH ALMOST EVERYBODY
SHOULD HANG OUT IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. IT WILL BE BREEZY
TOMORROW. SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS OF 20-30 MPH WILL KICK UP FIRST
THING TOMORROW MORNING AND STICK WITH US THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS A BIT.
OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS, MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT DEPICTING AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BULGING UP FROM THE GULF OF AMERICA. IT'S THIS
RIDGE THAT IS GOING TO BE THE MAJOR PLAYER IN OUR UPCOMING WEATHER
PATTERN.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1028 PM CST MON MAR 2 2026
FIRST, TEMPERATURES. THE MERCURY IS GOING TO CLIMB EACH DAY THIS
WEEK DUE TO THE UPPER RIDGE AND SOUTHERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW.
STARTING TOMORROW, LOOK FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS ABOUT 10-15 DEGREES
WARMER THAN WE SAW EARLIER TODAY. BY WEDNESDAY, SEVERAL SPOTS WILL
TOP OUT IN THE LOW 80S. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE EVEN WARMER AND
IT'S LOOKING LIKE A COUPLE OF RECORDS COULD BE IN JEOPARDY. IN THE
END, TEMPERATURES LIKE THIS WILL BE 20+ DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR
EARLY MARCH.
THEN THE QUESTION BECOMES STORMS. THE UPPER RIDGE IS GOING TO BE A
PLAYER IN THIS, TOO. DEPENDING ON ITS POSITIONING, IT COULD VERY
WELL HOLD OFF STORMS FOR MOST OF MIDDLE TN THIS WEEK. I THINK THE
ONLY DAY DURING THE WORKWEEK THAT MAY SEE A FEW STORMS COULD BE
THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TRIES TO OVERTAKE THE RIDGE.
LOTS OF QUESTIONS ABOUT THIS OCCURRING. HOWEVER, BY SATURDAY, WITH
MIDDLE TN FULLY ENSCONCED IN A WARM SECTOR, THE RIDGE SHOULD
FINALLY BREAK DOWN AND ALLOW FOR A FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION. SATURDAY IS DEFINITELY THE BEST DAY OF THIS WEEK FOR
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS. AS IT STANDS RIGHT NOW, I'D LIKE TO
SEE MORE SHEAR IN THE PICTURE FOR SEVERE STORMS. LAPSE RATES ARE
GOOD AND THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY IN PLACE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON, BUT WITH THE PARENT LOW SO FAR TO THE NORTH, WE MAY
ONLY BE LOOKING AT A COUPLE OF STRONG STORMS. KEEP AN EYE ON THE
FORECAST THIS WEEK, ESPECIALLY AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND IF YOU
HAVE OUTDOOR PLANS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1136 PM CST MON MAR 2 2026
MID TO HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH VFR CONDITIONS.
WINDS INCREASE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY, GUSTING
AROUND 20-30 KTS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LLWS TONIGHT, BUT ENDING
AFTER 12Z. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE IN ANY WIND SHELTERED AREAS
TONIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 54 75 59 81 / 10 10 10 0
CLARKSVILLE 49 76 59 79 / 20 20 20 10
CROSSVILLE 50 66 53 73 / 20 20 10 0
COLUMBIA 55 75 58 80 / 10 0 0 0
COOKEVILLE 53 70 56 76 / 10 20 10 0
JAMESTOWN 51 67 54 74 / 10 30 10 0
LAWRENCEBURG 55 73 57 79 / 10 0 0 0
MURFREESBORO 56 74 59 80 / 10 10 0 0
WAVERLY 52 75 60 78 / 10 10 10 10
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...UNGER
LONG TERM....UNGER
AVIATION.....CRAVENS
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