294
FXUS64 KOHX 141144
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
644 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 637 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2026
- LOOK FOR ADDITIONAL RAIN AND STORM CHANCES TODAY ACROSS MIDDLE
TENNESSEE, WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS EXPECTED DURING THE
AFTERNOON ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THERE IS
A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS MAINLY ACROSS THE CUMBERLAND
PLATEAU TODAY FOR A DAMAGING WIND THREAT.
- ONCE THE COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH, WE CAN LOOK FORWARD TO MUCH
DRIER AND ALSO MUCH COOLER WEATHER FOR THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS.
- A MORE HUMID AND ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL RETURN LATER IN
THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1034 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2026
AS SEVERE WEATHER TAPERS OFF THIS EVENING, EXPECT RAIN TO LINGER
AROUND. LOWS TONIGHT WILL GET INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. WHILE
THERE COULD BE A BRIEF LULL IN ACTIVITY SUNDAY MORNING, SOME CAMS
SHOW SOME ACTIVITY CONTINUING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
DAYTIME HEATING WILL KICK OFF ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS IN
CONJUNCTION WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH. WE ARE IN A MARGINAL
RISK FROM SPC (LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER SO SOME ISOLATED
SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE THE BIGGEST THREATS TO MIDDLE TENNESSEE WITH ANY SEVERE
STORMS THAT FIRE UP SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WE COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG IN RAINED ON AREAS MONDAY MORNING, SO
BE MINDFUL WHEN PLANNING YOUR COMMUTE. LEAVE PLENTY OF EXTRA TIME
TO GET WHERE YOU'RE GOING AND USE YOUR LOW BEAM HEADLIGHTS IF YOU
RUN INTO ANY FOG. OTHERWISE, MONDAY LOOKS TO BE QUIETER, WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1034 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2026
WE WILL SEE A BREAK IN THE WET PATTERN THROUGH MID-WEEK, WHEN RAIN
CHANCES WILL RETURN TO THE FORECAST. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS
CONDUCIVE TO SHORTWAVES PASSING THROUGH, SO WEDNESDAY ONWARD WILL
HAVE MORE RAIN CHANCES AND POSSIBLY MORE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.
HARD TO SAY ANYTHING MORE THAN THAT THOUGH CURRENTLY. WHILE THERE
ARE SOME OPPORTUNITIES FOR BREAKS FROM RAIN IN THE NEXT WEEK, BUT
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN LOOKS TO STAY MORE ZONAL THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD, SO RAIN WILL BE AROUND. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S BY MID-WEEK, THEN FALL BACK INTO THE LOW
80S AFTER A FRONTAL PASSAGE TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 637 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY OBSERVED ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE TAF
SITES THIS MORNING THOUGH THERE'S A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS NEAR
BNA AND MQY THIS HOUR. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT. A FRONT WILL GRADUALLY
APPROACH THE AREA THIS MORNING WHICH WILL LEAD TO INCREASING SW
WINDS, GENERALLY 7-12 KTS, WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SHRA AND TSRA WILL
DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS WELL AND ALL SITES HAVE
VCSH AND/OR PROB30S FOR MOST FAVORABLE TS TIMING. AS FROPA OCCURS,
WINDS WILL VEER AND DRIER AIR WILL LEAD TO DECREASING COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION. SRB AND CSV LIKELY DEAL WITH MVFR CIGS AFTER 00Z WITH
POST-FRONTAL STRATUS, WITH LOW PROBABILITY OF IFR CIGS AT CSV ~06Z.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 86 61 80 59 / 80 10 0 0
CLARKSVILLE 83 59 78 56 / 90 0 0 0
CROSSVILLE 82 57 76 54 / 80 40 10 10
COLUMBIA 87 60 80 58 / 90 20 0 0
COOKEVILLE 83 58 76 56 / 70 30 0 0
JAMESTOWN 83 56 76 53 / 80 40 0 0
LAWRENCEBURG 85 60 79 58 / 90 30 10 0
MURFREESBORO 88 61 80 58 / 80 20 0 0
WAVERLY 83 59 78 57 / 90 10 0 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...HOLLEY
LONG TERM....HOLLEY
AVIATION.....SIZEMORE
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