742
FXUS64 KOHX 150524
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1224 AM CDT WED JUL 15 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1222 AM CDT WED JUL 15 2026
- MAINLY LOW RAIN AND STORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEK, WITH SOMEWHAT BETTER CHANCES THIS WEEKEND. SOME STORMS MAY
PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL, WHICH COULD LEAD TO MINOR LOCALIZED
FLOODING AND PONDING.
- TEMPERATURES LOOK TO INCREASE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
ELEVATED HUMIDITY LEADING TO AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES IN THE LOW
100S WEST OF THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU FROM SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT
TUESDAY.
- AT THIS TIME, THE RISK OF HAZARDOUS WEATHER APPEARS TO BE VERY
LOW FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 7 DAYS. (WE CURRENTLY ARE NOT
OUTLOOKED FOR SEVERE STORMS AND ALSO EXPECT TO REMAIN JUST BELOW
HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA.)
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1054 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2026
CONVECTION HAS LINGERED A LITTLE LONGER THAN EXPECTED THIS
EVENING, WITH THE REMAINING ACTIVITY IMPACTING SOME AREAS WEST OF
I-65. HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED TO OUR NORTH BOTH AT THE SURFACE
AN ALOFT, SO THE WIND PROFILE IS MORE OR LESS EASTERLY FROM TOP TO
BOTTOM, WHICH IS QUITE UNUSUAL TO SEE, AND THAT'S THE REASON WE'RE
WATCHING OUR CONVECTIVE CELLS PROPAGATE "BACKWARDS" (FROM EAST TO
WEST). SPEAKING OF THE WIND PROFILE, THE EVENING SOUNDING FROM OHX
SHOWS MORE OF THE SAME: PLENTY OF INSTABILITY AND VERY HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES, BUT VERY LITTLE LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR
AND WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. WITH SO LITTLE DYNAMIC SUPPORT
WITH OUR CURRENT SYNOPTIC SETUP, CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS WILL BE DIURNALLY-DRIVEN. MEANWHILE, DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS
AROUND MIDDLE TENNESSEE ARE GETTING QUITE SMALL, SO PATCHY
OVERNIGHT FOG IS TO BE EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY THOSE SPOTS THAT
RECEIVED MEASURABLE RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1054 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2026
RAIN CHANCES THIS WEEKEND LOOK TO BE A LITTLE BETTER, AS THE
RIDGING BREAKS DOWN BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT AND AN UPPER
TROUGH AND SURFACE BOUNDARY PROVIDE SOME ADDITIONAL LIFTING IN
WHAT PROMISES TO BE A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS. STILL,
MIDDLE TENNESSEE ISN'T OUTLOOKED FOR SEVERE STORMS JUST YET, SO WE
WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST QUITE CLOSELY IN
COMING DAYS. MEANWHILE, TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM UP
GRADUALLY, SO THAT MANY LOCATIONS WEST OF THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU
CAN EXPECT AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES TO REACH THE LOW 100S FROM
SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER
ARRIVES. IT'S STILL WAY EARLY, BUT THE NBM IS HINTING AT A COLD
FRONT BY MAYBE NEXT TUESDAY NIGHT, WHICH WOULD BRING US COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND ALSO LOWER POPS LATER IN THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1222 AM CDT WED JUL 15 2026
EXPECT WIDESPREAD RADIATION FOG OVERNIGHT. WE'VE INCLUDED REDUCED
VSBY'S ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT KCKV, WHICH IS THE ONLY TAF SITE WHERE
NO RAIN FELL YESTERDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING. FOR WEDNESDAY, WE'VE
INCLUDED AFTERNOON PROB30 REMARKS FOR -SHRA AT KBNA AND KMQY;
POPS ARE TOO LOW ELSEWHERE FOR INCLUSION. WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT/CALM THRU THE TAF PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 88 73 89 73 / 20 10 40 10
CLARKSVILLE 88 72 89 73 / 20 10 50 10
CROSSVILLE 84 67 85 68 / 20 10 50 10
COLUMBIA 87 70 88 71 / 30 10 40 10
COOKEVILLE 85 70 86 70 / 20 10 50 10
JAMESTOWN 86 68 87 69 / 10 10 50 10
LAWRENCEBURG 85 69 86 70 / 30 10 40 10
MURFREESBORO 88 71 90 72 / 30 10 40 10
WAVERLY 87 71 87 71 / 30 10 40 20
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM....ROSE
AVIATION.....ROSE
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