929
FXUS64 KOHX 121135
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
635 AM CDT WED AUG 12 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 631 AM CDT WED AUG 12 2026
- DANGEROUS HEAT EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH TRIPLE DIGIT
HEAT INDICES WEST OF THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU.
- LOW TO MEDIUM THUNDERSTORM CHANCES PRIMARILY EAST OF I-65 EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY. STRONGER STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN.
- DRIER AND EVEN HOTTER CONDITIONS FAVORED FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY SOME MINOR RELIEF EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1002 PM CDT TUE AUG 11 2026
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES BUILDING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WHILE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PERSISTS ON THE NORTHERN/WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE RIDGE. THIS KEEPS MIDDLE TN IN A SOMEWHAT AWKWARD POSITION:
HOT AND HUMID AT THE SURFACE WITH ENOUGH MID-LEVEL SUPPORT AND
SURFACE INSTABILITY FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION, ESPECIALLY EAST OF
I-65 AND ACROSS THE PLATEAU.
WEDNESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER HOT DAY. HIGHS MAINLY MID-90S WEST OF
THE PLATEAU, WITH DEWPOINTS REMAINING IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.
HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 105-110 IN MANY LOCATIONS,
SUPPORTING CONTINUATION OF THE HEAT ADVISORY. CAMS AND SHORT-TERM
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR AN MCS OR
ORGANIZED CLUSTER OF STORMS TO TRACK SOUTH/SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH THE BEST CHANCES EAST OF
I-65. SUFFICIENT DCAPE, STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES, AND AVAILABLE
MOISTURE SUPPORT A CONDITIONAL RISK OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY STRONGER STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP OR
MOVE INTO THE REGION. COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SCATTERED AT
BEST; OVERALL SEVERE AND FLOODING RISK REMAINS LOW BUT NON-ZERO.
ANY ACTIVITY THAT DOES DEVELOP SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.
THURSDAY LOOKS SIMILAR BUT WITH THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING A BIT
FARTHER NORTH. HIGHS AGAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S WEST OF
PLATEAU WITH HEAT INDICES IN THE MID TO UPPER 100S. STORM CHANCES
TREND A BIT LOWER THAN WEDNESDAY AS THE RIDGE INFLUENCE
STRENGTHENS, BUT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE,
AGAIN FAVORED EAST OF I-65 THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
OVERNIGHT LOWS BOTH NIGHTS REMAIN WARM, GENERALLY IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S WITH LITTLE RELIEF FROM THE HUMIDITY.
OVERALL, THE SHORT-TERM FEATURES THE DUAL HAZARDS OF HEAT AND LOW
TO MEDIUM THUNDERSTORM RISKS. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER IN THE HEAT
AND LESS ON EXACT STORM COVERAGE/TIMING GIVEN TYPICAL CAM
VARIABILITY IN THIS PATTERN.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1002 PM CDT TUE AUG 11 2026
THE UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD MORE FULLY OVERHEAD THROUGH
THE WEEKEND, SUPPRESSING DEEPER MOISTURE AND CONVECTIVE CHANCES
WHILE ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB FURTHER. FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY WILL BE THE HOTTEST STRETCH. HIGHS ARE FORECAST IN THE
UPPER 90S FOR MANY LOCATIONS WEST OF THE PLATEAU, WITH THE NBM AND
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWING A SOLID CHANCE (AROUND 80% FOR THE
NASHVILLE AREA) OF REACHING OR EXCEEDING 100 DEG ON SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. PROLONGED HEAT INDICES OF 105-110+ COMBINED WITH WARM
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 70S WILL PRODUCE MAJOR TO EXTREME HEAT RISK.
THE HEAT ADVISORY IS ALREADY EXTENDING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING AND
WILL LIKELY NEED FURTHER EXTENSION OR EXPANSION DEPENDING ON
TRENDS.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES DROP TO LOW OR NEAR ZERO FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE DOMINATES. ANY ISOLATED ACTIVITY WOULD BE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND LIMITED. EARLY NEXT WEEK, GUIDANCE INDICATES
THE RIDGE BEGINS TO SHIFT OR WEAKEN AS A BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTH, WHICH SHOULD BRING MODEST COOLING AND A RETURN OF
HIGHER RAIN CHANCES LATER IN THE PERIOD. EXACT TIMING OF THE
PATTERN CHANGE REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN BEYOND EARLY NEXT WEEK,
BUT THE MULTI-DAY HEAT WAVE ITSELF HAS GOOD SUPPORT ACROSS
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE.
RESIDENTS SHOULD CONTINUE HEAT SAFETY MEASURES: LIMIT OUTDOOR
ACTIVITY DURING PEAK HEATING HOURS, STAY HYDRATED, CHECK ON
VULNERABLE INDIVIDUALS, AND NEVER LEAVE PEOPLE OR PETS IN
VEHICLES.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 631 AM CDT WED AUG 12 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD OUTSIDE OF
SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SIMILARLY TO
YESTERDAY, STORMS COULD PRODUCE 30+ KT GUSTS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING,
AND HEAVY RAIN. CSV AND SRB ARE THE TERMINALS MOST LIKELY TO SEE
STORMS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 95 76 97 79 / 10 20 20 10
CLARKSVILLE 94 76 96 78 / 10 20 10 0
CROSSVILLE 87 71 88 73 / 60 30 30 10
COLUMBIA 95 75 97 77 / 20 20 10 0
COOKEVILLE 89 72 90 74 / 50 40 30 20
JAMESTOWN 88 71 89 73 / 60 40 30 10
LAWRENCEBURG 93 74 94 76 / 20 20 10 0
MURFREESBORO 95 75 97 76 / 20 20 20 10
WAVERLY 94 75 96 77 / 10 10 10 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR TNZ005>009-023>030-
056>063-075-077-093>095.
SHORT TERM...CRAVENS
LONG TERM....CRAVENS
AVIATION.....CAHILL
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