550
FXUS64 KOHX 132338
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
638 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2026
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 630 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2026
- MEDIUM TO HIGH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY
WITH HIGHEST CHANCES EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT IS VERY LOW.
- RELATIVELY DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK,
BUT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL CONTINUE.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2026
A SURFACE LOW IS LOCATED OVER NORTHERN AL/GA WHICH IS INFLUENCING
TODAY'S ACTIVITY BEING FOCUSED ACROSS EASTERN MIDDLE TN ALONG
WITH STORM MOTION TOWARDS THE WEST/SOUTHWEST. OVERALL, THESE
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN OF THE GARDEN-VARIETY, PRODUCING
LIGHTNING AND BRIEF DOWNPOURS BUT REMAINING WELL BELOW SEVERE
CRITERIA. THESE STORMS WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET. THE LOW SHIFTS
A LITTLE SOUTH TUESDAY, BUT STILL CLOSE ENOUGH HELP ANOTHER BATCH
OF SCATTERED STORMS DEVELOP WITH BEST COVERAGE THIS TIME FOCUSED
ACROSS THE SOUTH. HAZARDS WILL STILL BE VERY SIMILAR WITH
LIGHTNING, HEAVY RAIN, AND BRIEF GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2026
NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH A FEW MORE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
PLATEAU CURRENTLY WITH MORE ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH VERY ISOLATED
THUNDER IN MORE THE I-65 CORRIDOR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS
AFTERNOON. ONLY A LOW CHANCE THAT NASHVILLE SCORES A SHOWER OR
STORM FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY TODAY. STORMS ARE STEADILY
MOVING, MAINLY TO THE SOUTHWEST AS THEY PIVOT AROUND A WEAK
SURFACE LOW, BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF GUSTY WIND OR HEAVY
DOWNPOUR ESPECIALLY DOWN NEAR WARREN AND COFFEE COUNTIES WHERE
CONVECTION IS A LITTLE SLOWER AND MORE NUMEROUS. OTHERWISE 3
HOURLY RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN REASONABLE.
LATER TONIGHT, SKIES SHOULD CLEAR, ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN MIDDLE
TENNESSEE, WITH PATCHY FOG BY MORNING. AREAS OF FOG ARE POSSIBLE FOR
LOCATIONS THAT HAVE SEEN OR ARE ABOUT TO RECEIVE RAIN IN THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS. TOMORROW ANOTHER DAY OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS IS ON TAP AS WE KEEP OUR MOIST AIR MASS AND THE VORTICITY
MAX RESPONSIBLE FOR THE RAINY WEATHER SLOWLY BEGINS ITS TREK
WESTWARD. SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD REMAIN MORE DIURNAL AGAIN,
WITH DAYTIME INITIATION WITH RAIN SHOWERS MOVING TO THE WEST
BEFORE DISSIPATING AT NIGHT AGAIN.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2026
OUT IN THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK TOWARDS THE WEEKEND THE UPPER RIDGE
ORIGINALLY IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL GENERALLY TRANSITION TO A
RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND AN UPPER RIDGE OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN US
COASTLINE. MORE LOCALLY THE HEIGHTS WILL BE A LITTLE ABOVE AVERAGE,
BUT GENERALLY THERE'S NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SYSTEM THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK. HAVING SAID THAT, WE WILL MAINTAIN A VERY MOISTURE RICH
ATMOSPHERE THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. WITH THIS BEING
SUMMER, A LOW TO MEDIUM DAILY DRUMBEAT OF DIURNAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY. SUMMER HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH HEAT INDICES TICKING UPWARD BY THE WEEKEND
WITH HEAT INDICES CLIMBING TO 100 TO 105 WEST OF THE PLATEAU INTO
THE NASHVILLE BASIN AND WEST.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 620 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2026
SHOWERS NEAR BNA/MQY/SRB/CSV WILL DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT 2 HOURS.
THAT WILL LEAVE BEHIND VFR CONDITIONS AT BNA/MQY/CKV. AT CSV/SRB
THERE'S A MEDIUM CHANCE FOG DEVELOPS AFTER 06Z. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL RETURN BY 14Z FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. THERE IS A
VERY LOW CHANCE A TERMINAL IS IMPACTED BY A SHOWER OR STORM AFTER
20Z, BUT PROBABILITIES ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF. WINDS
WILL VEER FROM THE NE TO THE NNE/E BY 15Z WITH SUSTAINED WINDS
AROUND 5-7 KTS THROUGH THE DAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 70 86 71 89 / 10 50 10 40
CLARKSVILLE 70 87 70 89 / 10 30 10 40
CROSSVILLE 64 81 66 84 / 40 50 10 40
COLUMBIA 68 85 68 87 / 30 70 30 50
COOKEVILLE 67 84 68 86 / 20 60 20 40
JAMESTOWN 64 84 66 86 / 20 30 10 30
LAWRENCEBURG 67 83 68 85 / 40 70 30 60
MURFREESBORO 69 86 69 89 / 20 60 20 50
WAVERLY 69 86 69 87 / 10 40 10 50
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE.......CLEMENTS
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION.....REAGAN
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page