571
FXUS64 KOHX 022342
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
642 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2026
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 623 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2026
- MAJOR TO EXTREME HEAT RISK THIS WEEK WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES IN
THE TRIPLE DIGITS. A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL
COUNTIES THROUGH FRIDAY.
- RAIN CHANCES ARE LOW THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 623 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2026
NASHVILLE'S HIGH OF 99 DEGREES OFFICIALLY TIED THE DAILY RECORD
SET BACK IN 2011. ASIDE FROM THE HEAT, CALM CONDITIONS HAVE
PERSISTED TODAY, AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW AS A
STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVERHEAD. HIGH TEMPERATURES
THURSDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER-90S.
LATEST CAMS DO SHOW A LOW CHANCE FOR POP-UP SHOWERS/STORMS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. DO THINK THAT WILL BE TOUGH UNDERNEATH THIS
HIGH PRESSURE, BUT NOT IMPOSSIBLE WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE. THERE
ARE LOW RAIN CHANCES (10-15%) IN THE FORECAST FOR TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. DO THINK A MAJORITY OF THE AREA STAYS DRY, BUT A LUCKY
FEW MAY GET A LITTLE RELIEF FROM THE HEAT.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1020 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2026
THE MORNING SOUNDING FROM OHX ACTUALLY SHOWS A MOIST, UNSTABLE AIR
MASS IN PLACE, BUT HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED ALMOST DIRECTLY ON
TOP OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. SO THE
PRESENCE OF WIDESPREAD SUBSIDENCE CONTINUES TO KEEP RAIN CHANCES
OUT OF THE FORECAST. A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF
MIDDLE TENNESSEE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. TODAY AND TOMORROW
LOOK TO BE THE HOTTEST DAYS, THEN WE'LL START TO BACK OFF AFTER
THAT, GRADUALLY, QUITE LITERALLY A DEGREE AT A TIME.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1020 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2026
RAIN CHANCES WILL STAY CLOSE TO ZERO FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK, WITH LOW RAIN CHANCES EMERGING THIS WEEKEND AND PERHAPS INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE AREN'T EXPECTING ANY ACTIVE WEATHER SYSTEMS,
PER SE, BUT THE BREAKDOWN OF THE EXISTING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AND
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME
DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CONVECTION BY SATURDAY. THE HEAT ADVISORY MAY
NEED TO BE EXTENDED THROUGH SATURDAY, BUT AFTER THAT, TEMPERATURES
LOOK TO BACK DOWN JUST ENOUGH TO KEEP US BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA,
EVEN THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS
THROUGH THE 7-DAY FORECAST PERIOD.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 621 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE THANKS TO A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE IN THE REGION. AFTERNOON CONDITIONS ARE HOT WITH
SCT CU AND VERY ISO SHRA. WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE. PATCHY FOG
POSSIBLE AT SRB EARLY MORNING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 76 99 77 98 / 0 10 0 10
CLARKSVILLE 75 99 75 98 / 0 10 0 10
CROSSVILLE 72 93 72 92 / 0 10 0 20
COLUMBIA 74 99 75 99 / 0 10 0 10
COOKEVILLE 74 96 74 96 / 0 10 10 10
JAMESTOWN 73 95 73 93 / 0 10 0 10
LAWRENCEBURG 74 97 74 96 / 0 10 0 10
MURFREESBORO 75 101 75 100 / 0 10 0 10
WAVERLY 75 98 76 98 / 0 10 0 10
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR TNZ005>011-023>034-
056>066-075-077>080-093>095.
UPDATE.......CLEMENTS
SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM....ROSE
AVIATION.....SIZEMORE
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