753
FXUS64 KOHX 310519
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1219 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1216 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2026
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY WITH
A FEW STRONG STORMS PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
- THERE IS A LOW SEVERE WEATHER THREAT MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING DAMAGING WINDS.
- DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN STARTING TUESDAY WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1103 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2026
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY, KEEPING A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE SE. THIS WILL SUPPORT DAILY ROUNDS OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS THEN EXPECTED
TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH MID-WEEK, BRINGING A
PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER BEFORE MOISTURE RETURNS LATE IN THE WEEK.
SUNDAY BRINGS ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MONDAY WILL BE THE MOST ACTIVE DAY AS
INCREASED WIND SHEAR FROM THE APPROACHING TROUGH COMBINED WITH
STRONG INSTABILITY SUPPORTS STORMS, WITH DAMAGING WINDS AS THE
PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT. LATEST MODELS SUGGEST AN MCS LIKE FEATURE
DEVELOPING TO THE NW AND SURGING SE THROUGH THE REGION. THERE IS
SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS FEATURES INITIATION TIME AND
PROGRESSION SE SO WILL NEED TO MONITOR ADDITIONAL MODEL RUNS FOR
BETTER TIMING OF STORMS. FOR NOW, SPC HAS PLACED A MARGINAL RISK
(LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5) FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE REGION.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1103 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2026
HIGH PRESSURE AND AN UPPER RIDGE WILL DOMINATE, LEADING TO MOSTLY
DRY CONDITIONS WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM FROM THE LOW 80S TUESDAY INTO THE MID 80S BY THURSDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE PLEASANT, FALLING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW
60S. TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THIS TIME TO CATCH UP ON ALL THOSE OUTDOOR
CHORES WE'VE BEEN UNABLE TO GET DONE THESE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS.
THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN LATE IN THE WEEK, ALLOWING
MOISTURE TO GRADUALLY RETURN. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE,
PARTICULARLY BY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND A BIT
WARMER, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1216 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF PATCHY FOG IMPACTING A TERMINAL NEAR DAWN
BUT PROBABILITIES ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON WITH LOW TO
MEDIUM CHANCES OF IMPACTING A TERMINAL. ACTIVITY SHOULD DECREASE
AFTER 01/00Z. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY REMAIN 5 KTS OR
LESS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 84 66 84 64 / 60 20 60 20
CLARKSVILLE 84 65 84 62 / 20 20 60 30
CROSSVILLE 77 60 78 57 / 50 50 40 20
COLUMBIA 83 64 84 63 / 70 20 60 30
COOKEVILLE 80 63 81 59 / 60 40 40 20
JAMESTOWN 81 60 80 55 / 60 40 50 10
LAWRENCEBURG 81 64 82 63 / 70 20 60 30
MURFREESBORO 83 64 84 62 / 70 30 60 30
WAVERLY 85 66 85 64 / 30 20 70 30
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...CRAVENS
LONG TERM....CRAVENS
AVIATION.....REAGAN
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