035
FXUS64 KOHX 160550
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1250 AM CDT THU JUL 16 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1248 AM CDT THU JUL 16 2026
- LOOK FOR INCREASING RAIN AND STORM CHANCES AS WE HEAD TOWARD THE
WEEKEND. SOME STORMS MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL, WHICH COULD
LEAD TO MINOR LOCALIZED FLOODING AND PONDING.
- TEMPERATURES LOOK TO INCREASE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
ELEVATED HUMIDITY LEADING TO AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES IN THE LOW
100S WEST OF THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU FROM FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT
TUESDAY.
- AT THIS TIME, THE RISK OF HAZARDOUS WEATHER APPEARS TO BE VERY
LOW FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 7 DAYS. (WE CURRENTLY ARE NOT
OUTLOOKED FOR SEVERE STORMS AND ALSO EXPECT TO REMAIN JUST BELOW
HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA.)
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1013 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2026
THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE REMAINS EXCESSIVELY HUMID
AND QUITE UNSTABLE THIS EVENING. BUT HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS THE
DOMINANT FEATURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. THUS, IN THE ABSENCE OF
ANY SORT OF FORCING MECHANISM OTHER THAN DAYTIME HEATING, WE
REALLY GOT NO MORE THAN ISOLATED STORM COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON.
DEW POINTS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE MID 70S AT QUITE A FEW STATIONS,
SO LOOK FOR PATCHY OVERNIGHT FOG TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN. WE EXPECT
VERY LITTLE, IF ANY, AIR MASS CHANGE DURING THE NEXT 24 HRS., SO
SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE MID
STATE TOMORROW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER ON
THURSDAY, SO HEAT INDICES ARE LIKELY TO REACH TRIPLE DIGITS AT A
FEW SPOTS. FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE WARMER STILL, AND WE'LL HAVE EVEN
HIGHER POPS AND A FEW MORE SPOTS WITH LOW-100S HEAT INDICES TO
SHOW FOR IT.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1013 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2026
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON A SLOW UPWARD TREND THROUGH TUESDAY.
BUT EVEN THEN, HEAT INDICES SHOULD STAY JUST BELOW HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA. IN THE MEANTIME, A SHORTWAVE APPEARS TO DEVELOP IN THE
UPPER FLOW BY SATURDAY, ALONG WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH, SO THIS
SHOULD GIVE US A LITTLE MORE FORCING AND CONTRIBUTE TO MEDIUM TO
HIGH RAIN AND STORM CHANCES, ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY. NEXT WEEK
LOOKS TO BE CONSIDERABLY DRIER AS THE DEEPEST MOISTURE GETS
CARRIED DOWNSTREAM AND HIGH PRESSURE REASSERTS ITSELF. WE'LL
HOPEFULLY ENJOY SOME RELIEF FROM THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY AFTER
TUESDAY WHEN ANOTHER SURFACE BOUNDARY MAYBE, POSSIBLY PUSHES
THROUGH THE MID STATE AND DROPS TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES AND
SEND HEAT INDICES TO MORE COMFORTABLE LEVELS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1248 AM CDT THU JUL 16 2026
WATCHING FOR FG DEVELOPMENT AT SRB AND CSV TONIGHT. SORT OF FLYING
BLIND WITH METAR DELAYS AND NO SATELLITE IMAGERY AVAILABLE TONIGHT.
WILL AMEND AS NECESSARY. SAME GOES FOR BNA, MQY, AND CKV, THOUGH
FG POTENTIAL AT BNA IS VERY LOW OVERNIGHT. WINDS ARE LIGHT
THROUGH THE PERIOD FAVORING A SW DIRECTION. VFR WEATHER IS
FORECAST MID-MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH ISO/SCT SHRA WHICH
IS IN TAFS AS A PROB30 AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 90 74 90 73 / 40 10 70 40
CLARKSVILLE 89 73 89 73 / 40 10 70 20
CROSSVILLE 85 69 85 69 / 40 10 70 30
COLUMBIA 88 72 90 72 / 50 10 60 30
COOKEVILLE 87 71 86 71 / 30 10 70 30
JAMESTOWN 87 70 86 70 / 40 20 70 30
LAWRENCEBURG 87 71 88 71 / 50 10 60 40
MURFREESBORO 90 73 90 72 / 40 10 70 40
WAVERLY 88 72 88 72 / 50 10 60 20
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM....ROSE
AVIATION.....SIZEMORE
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