118
FXUS64 KOHX 232323
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
623 PM CDT THU JUL 23 2026
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 617 PM CDT THU JUL 23 2026
- COOLER AND MOSTLY DRY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN EARLY SATURDAY. SEVERE WEATHER
IS NOT EXPECTED.
- HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS RETURN NEXT WEEK WITH DAILY LOW CHANCES
FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 617 PM CDT THU JUL 23 2026
WHAT A GORGEOUS DAY IT WAS TODAY - AND IN JULY! NOT MUCH IS GOING
ON WEATHER-WISE THIS EVENING. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A FEW
CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE AREA, AND HUMIDITY VALUES ARE COMFORTABLE
GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO 60S. CALM CONDITIONS PERSIST OVERNIGHT
WITH THIS DRIER AIR HELPING TO MITIGATE ANY WIDESPREAD FOG
CONCERNS. PATCHY FOG WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE, PARTICULARLY IN THOSE
TYPICAL TROUBLE SPOTS NEAR BODIES OF WATER AND ALONG THE PLATEAU.
BEAUTIFUL WEATHER IS ON TAP AGAIN TOMORROW WITH THIS RELATIVELY
DRIER AIR STICKING AROUND FOR ONE MORE DAY. BE SURE TO ENJOY IT.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1059 AM CDT THU JUL 23 2026
VERY PLEASANT OUT TODAY FOR MOST AS WE ENJOY DRIER, "COOLER" AIR.
STILL SOME STRAGGLING SPRINKLES NEAR THE AL/TN BORDER, BUT THE
MAJORITY OF MIDDLE TN HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO DRY OUT TODAY. THE
SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT FINALLY DRIFTED SOUTH INTO ALABAMA
OVERNIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE HAS STARTED TO BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. A LOW STRATUS DECK EXISTS FOR POINTS JUST ALONG I-40
AND SOUTH, GRADUALLY THINNING AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER IN.
OVERNIGHT WILL BE CALM WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. SOME
POCKETS OF FOG ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT MAINLY NEAR BODIES OF WATER
AND OVER PORTIONS OF THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU, BUT THE DRIER AIR
WILL MITIGATE WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT.
MOST OF THE DAY FRIDAY WILL BE DRY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1059 AM CDT THU JUL 23 2026
A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH OVERNIGHT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY,
BRINGING MEDIUM TO HIGH RAIN AND STORM CHANCES BACK INTO THE
FORECAST. THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY LOOKS TO OCCUR IN THE MORNING
HOURS OF SATURDAY WITH ACTIVITY LINGERING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED, BUT SOME EPISODES OF HEAVY RAIN
WILL BE POSSIBLE AS PWATS CLIMB BACK ABOVE 2", LEADING TO A
LOCALIZED FLOODING THREAT. INSTABILITY IS VERY LITTLE SINCE THERE
WILL BE SO MUCH CLOUD CONTAMINATION BY THE TIME WE REACH THE PEAK
HEATING HOURS OF THE DAY. ACTIVITY WILL WIND DOWN LATE SATURDAY.
SUNDAY IS LOOKING DRY AND HOT WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S. AN
EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BE THE DOMINANT
FORECAST FEATURE NEXT WEEK, SENDING TEMPERATURES UP AND MINIMIZING
RAIN CHANCES. MODERATE HEAT RISK IS LIKELY BY TUESDAY, WHICH WILL
BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE WEEK AS HIGHS REACH INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 90S, SO BE THINKING ABOUT THIS IF YOU HAVE ANY OUTDOOR
INTERESTS. TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS IN A COOL PLACE, AND STAY
HYDRATED. AS MIDDLE TN REMAINS FIXED ON THE EASTERN FRINGES OF THE
HIGH ALOFT, THIS WILL ALLOW FOR WEAK SHORTWAVES TO FILTER IN,
KEEPING DAILY LOW RAIN AND STORM CHANCES IN WITH A FOCUS DURING
THE AFTERNOON. CHANCES RANGE FROM 10-30%. HIGHS WILL LEVEL OFF IN
THE LOW TO MID 90S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 537 PM CDT THU JUL 23 2026
AWAY FROM THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU, SCT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CHANCES FOR MVFR CIGS
INCREASE AS YOU MOVE EAST, WITH CSV LOOKING LIKE THE MOST LIKELY
CANDIDATE FOR A BKN LOW CLOUD DECK BETWEEN APPROXIMATELY 06-14Z.
TOMORROW WILL HOST FEW TO SCT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WITH LIGHT
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 66 88 70 88 / 0 0 50 60
CLARKSVILLE 62 87 69 89 / 0 0 50 60
CROSSVILLE 64 82 65 81 / 10 10 40 60
COLUMBIA 66 88 69 88 / 0 10 40 60
COOKEVILLE 63 83 66 83 / 0 10 40 60
JAMESTOWN 62 82 64 82 / 0 0 40 60
LAWRENCEBURG 66 86 69 86 / 10 10 40 60
MURFREESBORO 65 88 69 88 / 0 0 40 60
WAVERLY 64 87 69 88 / 0 0 60 70
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE.......CLEMENTS
SHORT TERM...BAGGETT
LONG TERM....BAGGETT
AVIATION.....CAHILL
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