240
FXUS64 KOHX 150437
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1037 PM CST SUN DEC 14 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1033 PM CST SUN DEC 14 2025
- A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF MIDDLE TN
THROUGH NOON MONDAY.
- AS PART OF 36 STRAIGHT HOURS BELOW FREEZING, WIDESPREAD LOWS IN
THE TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW MORNING.
- LOOK FOR WARMER, MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER STARTING MID-WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1001 PM CST SUN DEC 14 2025
TEMPERATURES HAVE PLUMMETED INTO THE LOW TEENS, THOUGH WINDS HAVE
THANKFULLY RELAXED. STILL, IT'S PAINFULLY COLD OUT THERE. AND NOT
ONLY IS IT REALLY COLD, IT'S ALSO REALLY DRY. PWAT VALUES
MEASURED OFF THE BALLOON TONIGHT SHOWED A WHOPPING 0.08". THAT IS
A RECORD LOW VALUE FOR THIS DATE, REPLACING THE PREVIOUS RECORD
OF 0.12". SO IF YOUR LIPS HAVE BEEN REALLY CHAPPED, NOW YOU KNOW
WHY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SEVERAL MORE DEGREES AS
THE STRONG SURFACE HIGH ANALYZED OVER ILLINOIS SHIFTS EAST
OVERNIGHT. LOW TEENS TO SINGLE DIGIT VALUES ARE ANTICIPATED EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. THANKFULLY, ONCE THIS HIGH PRESSURE SLIPS EAST,
SURFACE WINDS WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST TOMORROW AFTERNOON
PULLING WARMER, MOISTER AIR BACK INTO MIDDLE TN. THOUGH IT WILL
STILL BE COOL, IT WON'T BE LIKE ANYTHING WHAT WE'VE EXPERIENCED
THIS WEEKEND. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S ARE IN STORE WITH
FULL SUN. LOWS TOMORROW NIGHT WILL DROP BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID
20S. UPPER RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST,
KEEPING THE WEATHER QUIET AND TEMPERATURES WARMER THROUGH TUESDAY
AS HIGHS MAKE A RUN AT 50 DEGREES.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1001 PM CST SUN DEC 14 2025
MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL TRANSITION OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST BY MID-WEEK,
SETTING THE STAGE FOR A MORE UNSETTLED END TO THE WEEK. THIS SHIFT
IN FLOW WILL PULL A DEVELOPING LOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF UP INTO
THE AREA WEDNESDAY, BRINGING LOW CHANCES NEAR 20% FOR LIGHT RAIN.
A MORE ROBUST SYSTEM WILL TAKE SHAPE BY THURSDAY, BRINGING MUCH
HIGHER RAIN CHANCES TO ALL OF MIDDLE TN. THE LAST FEW PACKAGES
WE'VE BEEN DISCUSSING THE PROBABILITY FOR SEVERE WEATHER WITH THIS
SYSTEM GIVEN ITS DYNAMIC NATURE, AND THANKFULLY THINGS CONTINUE
TO TREND UNFAVORABLY FOR SEVERE STORMS. NBM AND LREF
PROBABILITIES FOR 200 J/KG OR GREATER OF SURFACE- BASED
INSTABILITY ARE LESS THAN 20%. PROBABILITIES FOR 100 J/KG ARE A
SKOSH HIGHER, AROUND 55%, BOTH HIGHLIGHTED OVER OUR EXTREME
SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. THE SCENARIO MODELS ARE CURRENTLY DEPICTING IS
A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT MOVING FROM THE SOUTH THAT LOOKS TO
OVERSPREAD THE AREA WITH SHOWERS EARLY IN THE DAY THURSDAY. THE
COLD FRONT ITSELF WILL STEM FROM A SURFACE LOW NEAR THE GREAT
LAKES THAT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATER IN THE DAY, BRINGING
MORE FOCUSED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY STORMS DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT
OF INSTABILITY. THE MORE FAVORABLE AREAS OF SYNOPTIC-SCALE LIFT
AND FORCING ARE CURRENTLY DISPLACED TO OUR NORTH WITH BETTER
INSTABILITY VALUES TO OUR SOUTH. WITH THIS STILL BEING A FEW DAYS
OUT, WE'LL CERTAINLY KEEP AN EYE ON HOW THINGS EVOLVE, BUT AS OF
RIGHT NOW, SEVERE CHANCES REMAIN LOW. IF ANYTHING, WE'LL GET SOME
DECENT RAIN OUT OF THE SYSTEM AS QPF VALUES RANGE FROM 0.50-0.80".
WE'LL SEE A 15-20 DEGREE DROP IN TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT WITH HIGHS ONLY MAKING IT TO THE 40S ON FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES
REBOUND QUICKLY HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AS WE FALL UNDER ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT. A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES LOOK TO RIPPLE THROUGH THE
AREA, BRINGING WIDESPREAD LOW TO MEDIUM RAIN CHANCES BETWEEN
30-50% BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1033 PM CST SUN DEC 14 2025
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THIS TAF CYCLE WITH CLEAR SKIES. NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST NEAR 18Z WITH SPEEDS
BETWEEN 6 TO 8 KTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 12 40 24 52 / 0 0 0 0
CLARKSVILLE 10 39 23 50 / 0 0 0 0
CROSSVILLE 9 39 22 49 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBIA 12 40 22 51 / 0 0 0 0
COOKEVILLE 10 38 23 49 / 0 0 0 0
JAMESTOWN 8 39 23 49 / 0 0 0 0
LAWRENCEBURG 11 40 22 50 / 0 0 0 0
MURFREESBORO 11 40 22 51 / 0 0 0 0
WAVERLY 10 37 24 49 / 0 0 0 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR TNZ005>011-
023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095.
SHORT TERM...BAGGETT
LONG TERM....BAGGETT
AVIATION.....BAGGETT
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