138
FXUS64 KOHX 230456
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1056 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1053 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2025
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. LOW
CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS.
- DRY WEATHER WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE LATE WEEKEND.
- TEMPERATURES TURN COLD WEDNESDAY NIGHT, AHEAD OF THANKSGIVING
DAY. HIGH CHANCE (80-95%) FOR TEMPERATURES TO REACH 30 DEGREES
OR LESS BY THURSDAY NIGHT.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1014 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2025
THE STRATUS DECK HAS SETTLED IN FOR THE NIGHT ACROSS MIDDLE
TENNESSEE. THE NORTHERN LINE OF THE DECK IS VERY CLOSE TO THE TN/KY
BORDER. FOR THOSE LOCATIONS THAT HAPPEN TO REMAIN CLEAR, AREAS OF
FOG, POSSIBLY DENSE, WILL LIKELY FORM. THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE DECK
IS NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE MUCH PROGRESS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REST
OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THOSE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO SCATTER
THROUGH THE MORNING AS SUBSIDENCE INCREASES AS SURFACE HIGH SLIDES
INTO THE AREA. IT SHOULD BE PLEASANT IN THE AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT
WINDS, SUNSHINE, AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S. THE DRY WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE ON MONDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1014 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2025
OUR NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS A
WEAKENING SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST.
SOME EMBEDDED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY, BUT
MODELS CONTINUE TO KEEP THE NOTABLE INSTABILITY SOUTH OF THE AREA.
WE'LL CONTINUE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THAT AS THE DYNAMICS OF THE SYSTEM
ARE NOT LACKING. SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY END FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BE ON THE HEELS OF
THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH FROPA OCCURING AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
NOTICEABLY COOLER AIR WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY WITH
HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S. IF YOU ARE GETTING UP EARLY FOR YOUR
THANKSGIVING COOKING, IT WILL BE CHILLY! LOWS THURSDAY MORNING WILL
BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. THE COOLER AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1053 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2025
MVFR TO IFR CIGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AT ALL
TERMINALS. BNA REMAINS ON THE CUSP OF MVFR WITH CIGS LINGERING AT
009. AN IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR LOOKS TO OCCUR THERE NEAR 10Z. WHERE ANY
POCKETS OF CLEARING OCCUR, PATCHY DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
LIKELY. THIS CURRENTLY LOOKS MOST LIKELY AT CKV WHERE CLOUDS ARE
SLOWLY STARTING TO THIN OUT. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN LATER THIS
MORNING WITH A PREVAILING LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND LESS THAN 5 KTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 45 65 43 68 / 0 0 0 30
CLARKSVILLE 41 63 42 66 / 0 0 0 70
CROSSVILLE 42 61 38 63 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBIA 45 65 42 69 / 0 0 0 30
COOKEVILLE 44 61 40 66 / 0 0 0 0
JAMESTOWN 43 60 38 63 / 0 0 0 0
LAWRENCEBURG 45 64 42 69 / 0 0 0 20
MURFREESBORO 45 64 41 69 / 0 0 0 20
WAVERLY 43 63 44 66 / 0 0 0 50
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...REAGAN
LONG TERM....REAGAN
AVIATION.....BAGGETT
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