814
FXUS64 KOHX 160335
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
935 PM CST SUN FEB 15 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 935 PM CST SUN FEB 15 2026
- AREAS OF FOG OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
- WARM SPRING-LIKE TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK.
- DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, THEN LOW TO MEDIUM RAIN CHANCES LATE
WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 935 PM CST SUN FEB 15 2026
SINCE THE RAIN HAS ENDED, OUR ATTENTION HAS TURNED TO THE POTENTIAL
FOR FOG OVERNIGHT. SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE IS SHOWING POTENTIAL FOR
PATCHY FOG HEADING INTO MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE TIME DUE TO MOIST AIR
AROUND THE SURFACE FROM THE RAIN. MAKE SURE YOU LEAVE EXTRA TIME ON
YOUR COMMUTE TOMORROW AND IF YOU RUN INTO FOG, USE YOUR LOW BEAMS
AND SLOW DOWN.
AFTER THE FOG LIFTS AND CLOUDS CLEAR, MONDAY WILL BE SPRING-LIKE,
WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S ACROSS THE AREA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SET IN AND CONTINUE THESE SPRING-LIKE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE START
OF THE WORK WEEK, AS WELL AS SOME CALMER WEATHER.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 935 PM CST SUN FEB 15 2026
WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE HIGH, OUR TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH
RECORD BREAKING. MID-WEEK, WE WILL APPROACH HIGHS IN THE 60S AS WARM
AS THE MID TO UPPER 70S, WITH OUR LOW TEMPERATURES BEING CLOSER TO
OUR AVERAGE HIGHS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
HEADING INTO LATE WEEK, GUIDANCE IS BRINGING IN ANOTHER SYSTEM
THURSDAY. THERE'S A FAIR AMOUNT OF VARIABILITY IN THE TIMING GIVEN
IT IS SO FAR AWAY TEMPORALLY RIGHT NOW, BUT IT IS SOMETIME BETWEEN
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. CONFIDENCE IN MESSAGING ANYTHING IN PARTICULAR
WITH THIS SYSTEM IS LOW AS WELL, WITH TOO MUCH VARIABILITY GOING ON
IN THE GUIDANCE. WE'LL KEEP AN EYE ON IT AS WE GET INTO THE WORK
WEEK, AS THERE COULD BE SOME THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 505 PM CST SUN FEB 15 2026
RAIN IS GRADUALLY COMING TO AN END THIS EVENING, BUT IFR/LIFR CIGS
REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF MIDDLE TN. THESE LOW CIGS WILL
GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO MVFR, EXCEPT FOR CSV AND SRB WHICH WILL
LIKELY REMAIN IN IFR/LIFR BEFORE IMPROVEMENT MID-MONDAY MORNING.
THE OTHER CONCERN OVERNIGHT WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY FOG,
MAINLY BETWEEN 09Z AND 14Z AND PARTICULARLY IN AREAS WHERE THERE
IS ANY CLEARING OF CLOUDS. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN AREAWIDE LATE
MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 41 66 43 70 / 0 0 0 0
CLARKSVILLE 38 65 42 69 / 0 0 0 0
CROSSVILLE 37 62 41 62 / 10 0 0 0
COLUMBIA 41 65 42 67 / 0 0 0 0
COOKEVILLE 39 63 43 65 / 0 0 0 0
JAMESTOWN 37 62 41 64 / 0 0 0 0
LAWRENCEBURG 40 64 43 67 / 0 0 0 0
MURFREESBORO 41 64 43 68 / 0 0 0 0
WAVERLY 39 64 43 66 / 0 0 0 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...HOLLEY
LONG TERM....HOLLEY
AVIATION.....CLEMENTS
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