309
FXUS64 KOHX 060510
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1210 AM CDT TUE OCT 6 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1206 AM CDT TUE OCT 6 2026
- DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY WITH COOL NIGHTS AND WARM
DAYS.
- MEDIUM RAIN CHANCES (<60%) THIS WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CDT MON OCT 5 2026
MIDDLE TENNESSEE IS SITUATED IN A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS TODAY WITH A
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM NOW CENTERED TO THE NORTH. PWS ARE
GENERALLY IN THE 0.4-0.5" RANGE, NOT EVEN ENOUGH TO MUSTER
CLOUDS. THE DRY AIR AND CALMING WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR EFFICIENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S
TO LOW 50S. COOLEST LOCATIONS WILL BE IN THE VALLEYS. THE NEXT
COUPLE OF AFTERNOONS WILL BE WARM WITH PERHAPS SOME CLOUDS TUESDAY
SHOULD WE GET ENOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WITH A WEAK INVERTED
SURFACE TROUGH. TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN AN ABOVE-NORMAL STATE
OVERALL.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CDT MON OCT 5 2026
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SCOOT EASTWARD BY THURSDAY AND A MOISTURE
STARVED SHORTWAVE/COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
THURSDAY. THIS COULD PERHAPS GET A BREEZE GOING WHILE WE WARM
WELL IN TO THE 80S. OTHERWISE, NO RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
PASSING SYSTEM. OVERALL THE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE A
BROAD NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND PRESENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND
DRY AIR THROUGH FRIDAY. HOWEVER, GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST AN
INFLUX OF TROPICAL MOISTURE ADVECTING INTO THE REGION FROM THE
GULF ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS FAVORS
MEDIUM RAIN CHANCES WITH A FEW STORMS THIS WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1206 AM CDT TUE OCT 6 2026
VFR WILL CONTINUE UNDER DRY HIGH PRESSURE. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL
BE SHALLOW FOG IMPACTING THE SENSOR AT SRB. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
FROM THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND MAINLY SOUTHEAST TUESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 83 57 87 57 / 0 0 0 0
CLARKSVILLE 82 54 86 55 / 0 0 0 0
CROSSVILLE 78 51 79 52 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBIA 86 55 88 54 / 0 0 0 0
COOKEVILLE 79 54 81 55 / 10 0 0 0
JAMESTOWN 78 53 80 54 / 0 0 0 0
LAWRENCEBURG 85 55 87 54 / 0 0 0 0
MURFREESBORO 86 55 88 55 / 0 0 0 0
WAVERLY 81 56 84 56 / 0 0 0 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...SIZEMORE
LONG TERM....SIZEMORE
AVIATION.....13
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