190  
FXUS64 KOHX 212246  
AFDOHX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN  
446 PM CST MON JAN 21 2019  
   
UPDATE
 
 
FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
THE MAJOR ADJUSTMENT TO THE SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS FROM THE  
MORNING ISSUANCE IS THE ISSUANCE OF A WIND ADVISORY PRODUCT FOR  
ALL OF THE MID STATE TUE AFTERNOON THRU THE MID MORNING HRS ON  
WED. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL  
AND SOUTHERN PLAINS AS TUE MORNING PROGRESSES WITH A STRONG SFC  
PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPING. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES EWD, THIS  
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE THRU TUE NIGHT AND AT  
LEAST CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE SFC FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED DURING  
THE MORNING HRS ON WED. ALTHOUGH MAYBE ANOTHER MODEL RUN COULD  
BE NEEDED TO PROVIDE THE BEST CLARIFICATION, LATEST PREFERRED  
NAM/GFS SOLUTIONS DEPICTING VERY WELL THE POTENTIAL OF WIND  
SPEEDS WITHIN THE FIRST THOUSANDS OF FEET OR SO OFF THE SFC  
50KTS PLUS SUSTAINED DURING THIS ENTIRE TIME PERIOD, AND IT IS  
LIKELY THAT SOME WIND GUSTS WILL MIX DOWN TO THE SFC. ALTHOUGH  
ONE COULD ARGUE THAT AN SPS MIGHT BE APPROPRIATE HERE AND WAIT  
FOR ANOTHER SET OF MODEL RUNS AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED, BECAUSE  
MID STATE RESIDENTS COMING OFF OF A HOLIDAY WEEKEND, AND TO GIVE  
EVERYONE AS MUCH HEADS UP AS POSSIBLE, JUST WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED  
AN ADVISORY FOR THE MID STATE REGION DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.  
RAIN SHWRS SHOULD MOVE INTO THE MID STATE REGION LATE AFTERNOON  
WEST AND SPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE MID STATE BY TUE AFTERNOON.  
EVEN THOUGH MOCLR SKIES EXPECTED TONIGHT, ALTHOUGH OVERNIGHT  
TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING, THEY WILL BE CLOSER TO SEASONAL  
NORMAL VALUES. THESE BREEZY SOUTH WINDS EXPECTED AS TUE AFTERNOON  
PROGRESSES WILL RESULT IN TUE AFTERNOON HIGHS SOARING ABOVE  
SEASONAL NORMAL VALUES INTO THE MID 50S FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF  
THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU REGION, AND NEAR SEASONAL NORMAL VALUES  
ACROSS THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU REGION IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.  
 
OTHERWISE, NOT A LOT OF CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS MORNING FORECAST  
REASONING TO THE SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS WITH THIS AFTERNOON  
ISSUANCE. SEASONABLY WARM TEMP WILL CONTINUE TUE NIGHT THRU WED.  
AS COLDER AIR BUILDS IN BEHIND THIS SFC FRONTAL PASSAGE, SOME  
POTENTIAL OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL ON WED NIGHT ACROSS THE MID  
STATE REGION WILL BE POSSIBLE, BUT UNCERTAINTY IN AMOUNTS  
CONTINUE. LOW TEMPS WED NIGHT LOOK TO FALL BACK INTO THE MID  
TO UPPER 20S. A RETURN BACK TO SEASONABLY COLD CONDITIONS IS  
EXPECTED THU THRU THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WORK WEEK AS ONCE  
AGAIN COLD AIR INFLUENCES TO OUR NORTH BUILD INTO THE MID STATE  
REGION. SOME OF THE COLDEST TEMPS AND WIND CHILLS WILL LIKELY BE  
FRI MORNING. NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE OVER THE WEEKEND  
WITH A COUPLE OF SYSTEMS IN THIS PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL NWLY FLOW  
REGIME MOVING ACROSS THE MID STATE REGION. THIS WILL BRING A  
CHANCE OF LIGHT SHWRS ALONG WITH MIXED TO FROZEN PRECIPITATION  
BACK TO THE MID STATE REGION OVER THIS TIME PERIOD. SOME RAINFALL  
AND WINTRY ACCUMULATIONS AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. HOWEVER, HARD TO  
PINPOINT ACTUAL AMOUNTS OF EITHER AS OF THIS TIME.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.  
 
VFR THROUGH THIS TAF CYCLE.  
 
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS, ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF TO  
THE EAST COAST AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS. IN  
BETWEEN, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE. LIGHT ESE WINDS  
TONIGHT WILL BECOME STRONGER AND GUSTY FROM THE SOUTH ON TUESDAY.  
GUSTS OVER 30KT WILL BE COMMON AFTER 18Z. SKIES WILL FEATURE  
SCT-BKN CIRRUS CLOUDS THROUGH 18Z, THEN A CLOUD DECK AROUND 5KFT  
WILL DEVELOP.  
 

 
   
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 9 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR  
BEDFORD-CANNON-CHEATHAM-CLAY-COFFEE-CUMBERLAND-DAVIDSON-DE KALB-  
DICKSON-FENTRESS-GILES-GRUNDY-HICKMAN-HOUSTON-HUMPHREYS-JACKSON-  
LAWRENCE-LEWIS-MACON-MARSHALL-MAURY-MONTGOMERY-OVERTON-PERRY-  
PICKETT-PUTNAM-ROBERTSON-RUTHERFORD-SMITH-STEWART-SUMNER-  
TROUSDALE-VAN BUREN-WARREN-WAYNE-WHITE-WILLIAMSON-WILSON.  
 

 
 

 
 
DISCUSSION......31  
AVIATION........13  
 
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