640
FXUS64 KOHX 222341
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
641 PM CDT WED APR 22 2026
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 635 PM CDT WED APR 22 2026
- NO RAIN CHANCES THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.
- A MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL EMERGE ON FRIDAY EVENING
INTO SATURDAY MORNING WHEN STORMS WITH LOW RISK OF DAMAGING
WINDS MAY DEVELOP.
- THERE IS STILL A MEDIUM RISK OF SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE MID-
STATE ON MONDAY. THIS MAY INCLUDE THE RISK OF TORNADOES,
DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT WED APR 22 2026
WE'RE WRAPPING UP ANOTHER REALLY GREAT WEATHER DAY. WE'LL SEE
MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS AGAIN TONIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
IN THE 50S. SUNNY AND EVEN WARMER TOMORROW WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1137 AM CDT WED APR 22 2026
WHAT MORE CAN I SAY ABOUT THESE LAST FEW DAYS? THEY PRETTY MUCH
SPEAK FOR THEMSELVES: COOL MORNINGS, LOWS 80S FOR HIGHS, COMFORTABLE
DEW POINTS AND LIGHT WINDS. IT'S A SPRING-TIME LOVER'S DELIGHT. THE
PROBLEM IS, IT'S A DROUGHT LOVER'S DELIGHT, TOO. WE'RE WORKING ON
THAT AND THE FORECAST IS LOOKING UP IN THAT DEPARTMENT. LOOK FOR AT
LEAST ONE MORE DAY OF DRY SKIES AND WARM TEMPERATURES TOMORROW.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1137 AM CDT WED APR 22 2026
NOW, I SAY *AT LEAST* BECAUSE THERE HAVE BEEN SOME SLIGHT
ADJUSTMENTS TO FRIDAY'S FORECAST. THE CURRENT SUITE OF MODELS HAVE
PUSHED BACK THE ARRIVAL OF FRIDAY'S SHOWERS AND STORMS TO FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. IF THIS PERSISTS, THAT MEANS TWO
THINGS: FIRST, THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON FRIDAY WILL BE DRY, MEANING TWO
(NOT ONE) MORE DAYS OF RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS. SECONDLY, ANY STORMS
THAT MOVE INTO THE AREA ARE GOING TO HAVE A LOT LESS ENERGY TO WORK
WITH. FOR NOW, WE'LL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE LOW RISK FOR STRONG
WINDS WITH ANY STORMS FRIDAY EVENING. IN THE END, THE RAIN WILL BE
THE BENEFICIAL PART, BEING THE FIRST IN A LINE OF SEVERAL SYSTEMS
THAT WILL BRING US SOME MUCH NEEDED SOIL SOAKERS.
NEXT IS MONDAY. AS EXPECTED, THERE HAVE BEEN SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO
LONG RANGE MODELS REGARDING THIS SYSTEM. YESTERDAY, I HIGHLIGHTED
GUIDANCE'S SUGGESTION THAT ALL OF THE IDEAL SEVERE WEATHER
PARAMETERS LOOK TO BE COMING IN LINE FOR A DECENT, ALL-HAZARDS
SEVERE WEATHER EVENT. I WOULD SAY THAT HASN'T CHANGED. HOWEVER,
THERE ARE A FEW QUESTIONS THAT WILL NEED TO BE ANSWERED. FIRST,
WHILE THE UPPER TROUGH IS STILL TILTING NEGATIVELY MONDAY AFTERNOON,
WHAT'S THE POSITION OF THAT TROUGH? IT IS FURTHER NORTH TODAY THAN
IT WAS YESTERDAY. THIS WOULD REDUCE THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SUPPORT
FOR ANY TYPE OF OUTBREAK ACROSS THE AREA. SECOND, IF THAT PANS
OUT, WILL WE GET CUT OFF FROM THE SOUTH BY STORMS IN ALABAMA?
SOMETHING THAT HAPPENS HERE ALL TOO OFTEN. IN THE END, MANY
PARAMETERS ARE STILL LOOKING HEALTHY FOR THOSE ALONG AND WEST OF
I-65 TO HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER. SUPERCELL
COMPOSITES AND STPS HAVE TICKED DOWN EVER SO SLIGHTLY, BUT ARE
STILL A BIT CONCERNING. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE STILL A HEALTHY
6.7 TO 7.1 DEG C/KM. DRY AIR ALOFT AND PLENTY OF SHEAR. I WOULD
CONTINUE TO RATE THIS AS A MEDIUM THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND
REMAINS A SYSTEM TO CHECK BACK ON THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
BEYOND MONDAY, THE DEVELOPMENT OF ADDITIONAL RAINMAKERS LOOKS
PROMISING. EXTENDED GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST ANOTHER SYSTEM MID-WEEK.
COMBINED, SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE NEXT WEEK WOULD GO A LONG
WAY TO TAMPING DOWN OUR GROWING DROUGHT CONCERNS HERE IN MIDDLE TN.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 608 PM CDT WED APR 22 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE
LESS THAN 5 KTS THROUGH 12Z. SSW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 5-10 KTS
AFTER 15Z WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS AFTER 18Z.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 55 84 61 84 / 0 0 0 40
CLARKSVILLE 55 84 62 82 / 0 0 0 60
CROSSVILLE 51 79 55 79 / 0 10 0 20
COLUMBIA 53 84 60 83 / 0 0 0 30
COOKEVILLE 54 80 57 81 / 0 10 0 20
JAMESTOWN 51 80 55 81 / 0 10 0 20
LAWRENCEBURG 54 82 59 82 / 0 0 0 30
MURFREESBORO 53 84 59 84 / 0 0 0 30
WAVERLY 57 83 63 82 / 0 0 0 60
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE.......BAGGETT
SHORT TERM...UNGER
LONG TERM....UNGER
AVIATION.....REAGAN
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