637
FXUS64 KOHX 101932
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
232 PM CDT SAT APR 10 2021
DISCUSSION
SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY WORKING THEIR WAY EASTWARD OFF THE PLATEAU,
WITH VERY LITTLE IF ANY THUNDER SO FAR TODAY. MODELS DID PLACE A
BIT OF INSTABILITY OVER THE EASTERN HALF THIS AFTERNOON, BUT CLOUD
COVER AND THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH HAS WEAKENED THE INSTABILITY
POTENTIAL. STRONG WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH AND GUSTS UP TO AROUND 30
MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON, AND AGAIN
TOMORROW. WITH DRIER CONDITIONS IN PLACE SUNDAY, AND STRONG WINDS
CONTINUING, MARGINAL FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS THAT HAVE NOT RECEIVED MUCH RAINFALL OVER THE
PAST DAY OR SO. WITH STRONG WINDS, SOME ENHANCED LOW LEVEL MIXING
WILL BE POSSIBLE, AND HIGH TEMPS MAY CLIMB INTO THE MID 70S WHICH
WOULD DROP MIN RH VALUES TO AROUND 20 PERCENT FOR SOME AREAS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
BY MONDAY, MODELS HAVE SUGGESTED A WEAK MIDWEST TROUGH MAY BRING
SOME LIGHT RAIN CHANCES TO THE MID STATE, BUT SOLUTIONS HAVE NOT
BEEN CONSISTENT. KEPT RAIN CHANCES OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW,
BUT TRENDS ARE CONTINUING TO INDICATE SCHC/CHC POPS COULD BE PUT
IN FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE TROUGH ACTIVITY TO START OFF
THE WEEK WILL BE TO OUR NORTH, AND SHOULD KEEP US DRY ON TUESDAY.
BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, A STRONG RIDGE STARTS TO FORM IN THE
PLAINS, BUT IS QUICKLY WEAKENED BY A DEVELOPING TROUGH LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. TEMPS WONT WARM UP TOO MUCH AS A RESULT, AND
SOME RAIN CHANCES MAY MOVE BACK IN LATE THURSDAY INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. STILL NOT TOO IMPRESSED WITH THE SOLUTIONS BETWEEN THE
GFS AND ECMWF NEXT WEEKEND AS THE GFS HAS ANOTHER MIDWEST TROUGH
AND THE ECMWF IS MORE ZONAL/WEAK RIDGE, SO NOT PUTTING TOO MUCH
WEIGHT ON RAIN NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.
MVFR CONDITIONS WITH VCSH AT CKV/BNA/MQY ARE EXPECTED FOR A FEW
MORE HOURS BEFORE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR AND SKIES CLEARING. AT CSV,
MVFR WITH -SHRA WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON BUT VFR CONDITIONS
ARE ANTICIPATED TO ARRIVE BY 23Z. SOUTH WINDS EARLY IN THE TAF
PERIOD WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS AT TIMES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 49 73 51 80 51 / 10 0 0 0 10
CLARKSVILLE 49 71 50 77 49 / 10 0 0 0 10
CROSSVILLE 45 67 47 74 48 / 30 0 0 0 10
COLUMBIA 47 73 50 80 50 / 10 0 0 0 10
LAWRENCEBURG 47 72 50 79 51 / 10 0 0 0 10
WAVERLY 48 73 52 80 52 / 10 0 0 0 10
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION......BARNWELL
AVIATION........SHAMBURGER
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