651
FXUS64 KOHX 031723
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1223 PM CDT SAT OCT 3 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1213 PM CDT SAT OCT 3 2026
- MEDIUM TO HIGH RAIN CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
HALF OF MIDDLE TN THROUGH SUNDAY.
- LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCE FOR MORE THAN 1 INCH OF RAIN IN THE
SOUTHEAST PORTION OF MIDDLE TN.
- COOLER, DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1054 AM CDT SAT OCT 3 2026
WHILE THE STATIONARY FRONT HAS SET UP FURTHER SOUTH THAN WE
ANTICIPATED WHICH IS KEEPING THE RAIN TO OUR SOUTH, THE CLOUDS HAVE
DECIDED THEY'D LIKE TO STAY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE TODAY. THERE IS A
SMALL CHANCE WE COULD SEE SOME CLEARING, BUT IT WON'T BE ENOUGH TO
GET INTO THE 80S TODAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S AREAWIDE, WITH A
SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON IN THE SOUTHEAST CUMBERLAND
PLATEAU. THERE COULD BE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO, BUT THIS IS
NOT LIKELY.
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY, A SHORTWAVE WILL COME IN AND THE STATIONARY
FRONT WILL LIFT BACK INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE. THIS WILL BRING THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK TO END THE WEEKEND. BEFORE THE RAIN
RETURNS, WE COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOP OVERNIGHT SO USE
CAUTION IF YOU HAVE ANY PLANS LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST OVER THE COURSE OF
SUNDAY, SO HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE 70S.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1054 AM CDT SAT OCT 3 2026
A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH ON MONDAY, GIVING US
CRISP, FALL-LIKE TEMPERATURES. HIGHS FOR THE WORK WEEK WILL
INITIALLY BE IN THE 70S, BUT SLOWLY WARM BACK INTO THE MID 80S AS
THE WEEK WEARS ON. THE MORNING LOWS ARE WHERE THE CHILLY AIR
REALLY SHINES, AS TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO THE 40S AND 50S
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MID-WEEK NEXT WEEK. THE WEEK LOOKS DRY AS
WELL, UNTIL WE GET INTO THE WEEKEND WHEN IT LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER
SHOT OF RAIN. HOPEFULLY, WE CAN GET ENOUGH TO HELP BUST MORE OF
THIS DROUGHT.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1213 PM CDT SAT OCT 3 2026
IFR CIGS WILL SLOWLY RISE TO MVFR OVER THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS AND
RETURN TO VFR FOR WESTERN TERMINALS FOR A TIME AFTER 22Z. CIGS
LOWER AGAIN TO MVFR/IFR AFTER 06Z. SHOWERS DEVELOP AFTER 10Z FOR
AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF NASHVILLE. NORTHERLY WINDS UNDER 7 KNOTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 64 81 56 80 / 20 20 0 0
CLARKSVILLE 60 80 53 79 / 10 10 0 0
CROSSVILLE 61 74 51 75 / 30 70 20 0
COLUMBIA 64 81 54 81 / 30 40 0 0
COOKEVILLE 63 75 54 75 / 40 50 10 0
JAMESTOWN 61 76 53 75 / 20 40 0 0
LAWRENCEBURG 64 79 55 80 / 30 50 10 0
MURFREESBORO 64 81 55 81 / 30 40 0 0
WAVERLY 62 78 54 76 / 10 10 0 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...HOLLEY
LONG TERM....HOLLEY
AVIATION.....MUELLER
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