384
FXUS64 KOHX 112357
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
657 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2026
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 643 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2026
- HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS THIS EVENING WITH VERY WARM OVERNIGHT
LOWS.
- HIGH CHANCE (<80%) FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS FRIDAY ALONG A COLD
FRONT. SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE DURING THE
AFTERNOON MAINLY POSING A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
- MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS SUNDAY, LOWER
CHANCES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 657 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2026
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS IN PLACE OVER MIDDLE TN AND THAT WILL KEEP
QUIET CONDITIONS IN PLACE FOR THE EVENING. IT WILL REMAIN WARM AND
HUMID AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN VERY WARM TONIGHT ONLY
FALLING INTO THE 70S. WE ARE FORECASTING A LOW OF 77 TONIGHT IN
NASHVILLE, THAT IS ONE DEGREE COOLER THAN THE DAILY RECORD WARM
LOW FOR JUNE 12 SET IN 2013.
AS WE HEAD TOWARDS DAYBREAK WE WILL BE WATCHING AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE LOW AND TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY ON HOW WIDESPREAD THIS
ACTIVITY WILL BE BY THE TIME IT REACHES OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES
AFTER 3 AM. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LOOK LIKELY FOR OUR NORTHWEST
COUNTIES BETWEEN 4 AND 8 AM. THE FRONT AND SCATTERED ACTIVITY
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH AND EAST DURING THE MORNING BUT
ACTIVITY WILL BECOME LESS NUMEROUS AND IS EXPECTED TO MAINLY BE
SCATTERED SHOWERS BY THE TIME IS REACHES THE NASHVILLE AREA
BETWEEN 7 AND 10 AM. WE WILL SEE RE-DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY IN
THE AFTERNOON FOR AREAS MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF NASHVILLE. THERE
IS A VERY LOW CHANCE FOR GUSTY WINDS WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS DURING
THE MORNING BUT BETTER CHANCES FOR GUSTY WINDS WILL COME IN THE
AFTERNOON FOR THE PLATEAU.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1145 AM CDT THU JUN 11 2026
RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH A HUMID
SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZE ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE. HEAT AND HUMIDITY
WILL COMBINE FOR HEAT INDICES IN THE 90S EAST OF I-65 AND THE LOW
100S CLOSER TO THE TENNESSEE RIVER THIS AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE A STORM SYSTEM IS IMPACTING THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE
DISTURBANCE ALOFT RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS REMAIN ACROSS THE PLAINS,
BUT WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT
INTO TOMORROW MORNING. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY
APPROACH MIDDLE TENNESSEE TOMORROW MORNING AS A RESULT, AND THIS
SHOULD CONTAIN A BAND OF WEAKENING CONVECTION. THE FRONT IS
PROJECTED TO CONTINUE TOWARD THE I-40 CORRIDOR BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND ABUNDANT PRE-FRONT MOISTURE, NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS DEPICT SBCAPE OF 2,500-3,500 J/KG THANKS TO RICH
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WITH DCAPE IN THE 700-1,000 J/KG RANGE.
THESE PROFILES WILL SUPPORT TRANSIENT STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND SMALL TO POSSIBLY 1" HAIL.
SEVERE WEATHER SHOULDN'T BE TOO LONG-LIVED SINCE EFF. BULK SHEAR
IS <15 KTS (BEST FLOW ALOFT REMAINS WELL TO OUR NORTH). LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1145 AM CDT THU JUN 11 2026
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WILL BRING MORE STABLE POST-
FRONTAL CONDITIONS TO THE AREA WITH A TRANSITION TO ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT. BEST MOISTURE WILL BE DISPLACED TO OUR SOUTH. HOWEVER,
A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO DIVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD ACT
TO PULL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY BACK TO THE NORTH WHICH WOULD FOSTER
MEDIUM-HIGH CHANCES FOR RAIN AND STORMS GIVEN FAVORABLE FORCING
FOR ASCENT ENTERING FROM THE NORTHWEST. THERE'S NO CURRENT
CONCERNS FOR SEVERE WEATHER OR FLOODING, BUT WE'LL KEEP AN EYE ON
IT.
THE MAIN FORECAST CHANGE FROM THIS TIME YESTERDAY IS A DECREASE IN
RAIN CHANCES EARLY-MID NEXT WEEK. GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED DRIER FOR
OUR REGION THANKS TO THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DIPPING CLOSER TO THE
SOUTHEAST BEHIND THE SYSTEM ON SUNDAY. NONETHELESS, POPS ARE
GENERALLY <35% THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK AND THE PATTERN LOOKS
SOMEWHAT ACTIVE FOR MID JUNE AND THEREFORE LESS PREDICTABLE FOR
MID NEXT WEEK AT THIS CURRENT FORECAST RANGE.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2026
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST 09Z. A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL APPROACH THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE AREA AFTER
10Z AND WILL SPREAD SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE MORNING. THIS
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT PUSHES SOUTH AND EAST BUT
THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ON HOW MUCH IT WILL WEAKEN, IT'LL AT LEAST
GIVE THE NASHVILLE AREA SCATTERED SHOWERS BETWEEN 12 AND 17Z.
LOWER VIS AND CIGS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH ANY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO RE-DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY SOUTH AND EAST OF NASHVILLE AFTER
20Z. SOUTHERLY WINDS UP TO 6 KNOTS OVERNIGHT SHIFTING NORTHERLY UP
TO 8 KNOTS BY 17Z.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 77 89 67 91 / 10 40 10 20
CLARKSVILLE 75 85 63 89 / 50 50 0 30
CROSSVILLE 70 85 64 85 / 0 80 30 20
COLUMBIA 74 90 68 90 / 10 70 10 40
COOKEVILLE 72 86 65 86 / 0 70 20 20
JAMESTOWN 71 86 62 86 / 0 80 20 10
LAWRENCEBURG 73 88 68 88 / 0 80 20 40
MURFREESBORO 74 91 67 91 / 0 80 10 20
WAVERLY 74 86 65 89 / 30 50 0 40
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE.......MUELLER
SHORT TERM...SIZEMORE
LONG TERM....SIZEMORE
AVIATION.....MUELLER
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page