972
FXUS64 KOHX 262351
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
651 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2026
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 640 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2026
- MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EACH
DAY THIS WEEK. DRIER PATTERN NEXT WEEK.
- NEW RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1-3 INCHES WITH LOCALIZED GREATER AMOUNTS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. BRIEF, LOCALIZED FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE WITH THE HEAVIER DOWNPOURS.
- NO ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED, BUT A FEW STRONG STORMS
ARE POSSIBLE, MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE THE MAIN THREATS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2026
THINGS ARE QUIETENING DOWN OVERALL ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE. WE
HAVE A FEW SHOWERS NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER/LBL AREA AND SOME
SHOWERS NOW MOVING ACROSS THE PLATEAU. ONLY A FEW LIGHTNING
STRIKES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE INTO THE
EVENING HOURS BUT A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT
SINCE WE REMAIN IN ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND INFLUENCE FROM A NEARBY
WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE WEST.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1126 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2026
AS THIS MORNING'S MCV CONTINUES TO TREK INTO KENTUCKY, CLOUDS WILL
LINGER ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND THE RAIN WILL BECOME MORE SHOWERY
IN NATURE. AS THE SUN COMES OUT AND THE SURFACE HEATS (FOR THE FIRST
TIME IN AGES, IT FEELS LIKE), INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE. THIS MEANS
WE COULD SEE SOME THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. WE
WILL GET A REPRIEVE FROM THE ACTIVITY THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS, BEFORE MORE RAIN ENTERS THE PICTURE ON WEDNESDAY.
INSTABILITY LOOKS BETTER ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH SOME MARGINAL
AT BEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR, WHICH LEADS TO ANOTHER AFTERNOON OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. NOW, WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY
ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IN THE SHORT TERM. HOWEVER, COULD SOME OF
THESE THUNDERSTORMS TAKING FULL ADVANTAGE OF THE ENVIRONMENT BE
STRONG AND MAYBE SOME ISOLATED SEVERE AS WELL? YES, BUT THIS WOULD
NOT BE WIDESPREAD ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE, OR SOMETHING YOU SHOULD
LOSE SLEEP OVER.
RAINFALL TOTALS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE, WITH SOME AREAS IN MIDDLE
TENNESSEE BORDERING ON 6" OF RAIN OVER THE PAST WEEK ACCORDING TO
THIS MORNING'S OBSERVATIONS. THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND INTO THE
REST OF THE PERIOD, IT APPEARS THE HEAVIEST RAIN (EXCLUDING
THUNDERSTORM POSSIBILITY, AS THOSE CAN PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVIER
AMOUNTS) IS BEHIND US. OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, TOTAL QPF IS AROUND 1
TO 2 INCHES, WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN OUR AREAS ALONG THE AL
STATE LINE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARMER AT NIGHT AND MUGGY IN
THE AFTERNOON, WITH LOWS IN THE 60S AND HIGHS IN THE 80S THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1126 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2026
JUST A FEW MORE DAYS OF DREARY RAIN AND WE WILL BE THRUST INTO A
DRIER PATTERN STARTING ON THE WEEKEND. NOTICE I SAID DRIER NOT DRY.
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL LINGER AS WE STRUGGLE TO ADJUST UNDER
A 500MB RIDGE THAT BEGINS TO FLIP OUR PATTERN ON THURSDAY.
THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN A POSSIBILITY BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, BUT
AGAIN, NO ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE. BY THE WEEKEND,
THINGS WILL BEGIN TO REALLY FLIP AS COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH THROUGH
MIDDLE TENNESSEE. WHILE THIS FRONT WON'T DO MUCH TEMPERATURE WISE,
IT WILL DRY UP SOME OF THE MOISTURE, LEADING TO LESSER POPS IN THE
NEXT WORK WEEK. SOME RAIN HAS BEEN NICE FOR OUR DROUGHT, BUT IT'S
TIME FOR MORE SUNSHINE IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE, AND HOPEFULLY WE'LL GET
SOME OF THAT.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2026
CURRENTLY LOOKING AT SHRA ACTIVITY NEAR SRB AND CSV WHICH SHOULD
STICK AROUND FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THERE'S ALSO A FEW SHOWERS
OFF TO THE WEST OF CKV, BUT THINGS ARE QUIET NEAR BNA AND MQY.
THE MAIN TAF STRATEGY IS CIGS. ALL SITES ARE FORECAST TO DROP TO
MVFR OVERNIGHT INTO THE MID MORNING HOURS. A BRIEF WINDOW OF IFR
CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AND A TEMPO WAS USED FOR THAT. CIGS ARE
FORECAST TO IMPROVE LATE MORNING WITH WINDS BECOMING SW AT 5-10
KTS. ISO TO SCT SHRA IS FORECAST ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON, SO THAT WAS HANDLED WITH A PROB30.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 68 83 66 83 / 20 40 20 50
CLARKSVILLE 67 83 65 83 / 30 30 20 30
CROSSVILLE 64 77 62 79 / 50 50 30 60
COLUMBIA 67 83 65 83 / 20 50 20 60
COOKEVILLE 66 80 64 81 / 30 50 30 50
JAMESTOWN 64 80 61 80 / 30 50 40 60
LAWRENCEBURG 67 81 65 81 / 20 50 20 60
MURFREESBORO 67 83 65 84 / 20 50 20 50
WAVERLY 67 83 66 83 / 20 30 10 50
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE.......SIZEMORE
SHORT TERM...HOLLEY
LONG TERM....HOLLEY
AVIATION.....SIZEMORE
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