978
FXUS64 KOHX 121735
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1235 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1231 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2026
- A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE
UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY.
- MEDIUM TO HIGH RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH
TUESDAY. SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS VERY LOW.
- RELATIVELY DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK,
BUT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL CONTINUE.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1059 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2026
SAME THING DIFFERENT DAY, BUT WITH LESS OF A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
AS WE HEAD INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A SURFACE LOW IS
CURRENTLY STALLED OVER THE REGION AND WILL WOBBLE THROUGH MIDDLE
TN BEFORE EVENTUALLY SHIFTING SOUTH. THIS IS KEEPING SHOWERS AND
STORMS MOVING THROUGH THE CWA. WITH ONGOING PRECIPITATION,
FLOODING WILL REMAIN A THREAT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TODAY, SHOWERS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE (ALREADY BEING SEEN VIA
SATELLITE AND RADAR) THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE
BOUNDARY LINGERS. PWATS REMAIN HIGH, SUPPORTING EFFICIENT
RAINFALL PRODUCTION AND THE RISK FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS. AS
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED, FLOODING POTENTIAL IS THE MAIN CONCERN, WITH
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE IN URBAN AREAS, POOR DRAINAGE
SPOTS, AND ALONG SMALL STREAMS. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS LOW
TODAY, WITH LIMITED SHEAR AND POORER LAPSE RATES REDUCING THE
CHANCE FOR DAMAGING WINDS COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS, THOUGH GUSTY
WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING ARE STILL POSSIBLE IN STRONGER
STORMS.
HIGHS WILL BE HELD DOWN A BIT BY CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION,
GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. OVERNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY,
LINGERING SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES PERSIST, WITH HEAVY RAIN
POSSIBLE BEFORE COVERAGE BEGINS TO SLOWLY DECREASE. FLOODING RISKS
WILL EASE AFTER THIS EVENING BUT REMAIN ELEVATED WITH ANY TRAINING
STORMS. MONDAY HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH MUGGY
CONDITIONS STICKING AROUND.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1059 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2026
THE UPPER PATTERN STARTS TO SHIFT EARLY IN THE WEEK AS A RIDGE
BUILDS TO THE WEST. RAIN AND STORM CHANCES STAY MEDIUM TO HIGH
INTO TUESDAY, WITH CONTINUED (BUT GRADUALLY DECREASING) RISK OF
HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING. SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL STAYS VERY LOW
OVERALL.
BY MID WEEK, RELATIVELY DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN AS THE RIDGE
EXPANDS. EXPECT A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTER WITH ISOLATED,
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, PRIMARILY IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, HIT-OR-MISS IN NATURE. WIDESPREAD FLOODING
CONCERNS DIMINISH SIGNIFICANTLY, THOUGH ISOLATED HEAVY DOWNPOURS
REMAIN POSSIBLE. STRETCHES OF DRY WEATHER BECOME MORE COMMON,
ESPECIALLY THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND, OFFERING RELIEF AFTER THE
RECENT ACTIVE PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RUN IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD, FEELING WARMER DUE TO THE HUMIDITY.
NO MAJOR HEAT RISKS ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED, BUT STAY HYDRATED
DURING ANY OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES. OVERALL, THE FOCUS SHIFTS FROM
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND FLOODING RISKS TO MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY
LATER IN THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2026
STACKED LOW PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL KEEP CONDITIONS
UNSETTLED, SHOWERY, AND MOSTLY MVFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE WILL
BE SOME PERIODS OF VFR LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND PERIODS OF IFR
WITH FOG AND STRATUS LATE NIGHT THROUGH DAYBREAK. WINDS WILL BE
GENERALLY LIGHT, MOSTLY WSW THIS AFTERNOON, THEN BECOMING NW TO NE
AS THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER WOBBLES SLOWLY OVER THE AREA.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 70 85 70 86 / 50 70 30 60
CLARKSVILLE 70 86 70 87 / 30 30 20 40
CROSSVILLE 65 79 64 81 / 60 80 30 60
COLUMBIA 68 84 68 85 / 50 70 40 70
COOKEVILLE 67 82 66 84 / 50 80 30 60
JAMESTOWN 65 81 64 83 / 50 80 20 40
LAWRENCEBURG 68 82 67 83 / 50 80 40 70
MURFREESBORO 69 85 69 86 / 50 70 40 70
WAVERLY 68 85 69 85 / 40 50 30 60
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TNZ005>011-023>034-
056>066-075-077>080-093>095.
SHORT TERM...CRAVENS
LONG TERM....CRAVENS
AVIATION.....13
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page