832
FXUS64 KOHX 131728
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1128 AM CST FRI FEB 13 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1125 AM CST FRI FEB 13 2026
- DRY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
- NEAR 100% RAIN CHANCE LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH TOTAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1-2 INCHES. FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME.
- VERY WARM NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1100 AM CST FRI FEB 13 2026
A HIGH PRESSURE CENTER COVERING THE TN VALLEY TO MID ATLANTIC WILL
KEEP OUR AREA RAIN-FREE THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY AND ON THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING.
WE CONTINUE TO LOOK FOR A VERY WET PATTERN LATE SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ROLLS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
STATES. THE SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOMALOUSLY HIGH MOISTURE INTO THE
MID STATE BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY (PW VALUES AROUND 1.25")
LEADING TO INSTANCES OF HEAVY RAIN. FORTUNATELY, WITH THE LOW
PRESSURE CENTER TRACKING SOUTH OF OUR AREA, WE WON'T HAVE TO WORRY
ABOUT SEVERE WEATHER AS INSTABILITY IS DISPLACED TO OUR SOUTH.
THIS LACK OF INSTABILITY WILL ALSO HINDER ANY THREAT FOR
WIDESPREAD FLOODING AS RAIN RATES WILL NOT BE EXCESSIVE. A FEW
SPOTS OF PONDING ON ROADS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WILL RISES ON
STREAMS AND CREEKS, BUT FLASH FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. MODELS ARE
VERY WELL FOCUSED ON TOTALS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WHILE SHOWING A LOW-
END 10 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE FOR EXCEEDING 2 INCHES. EVEN WITH
LOCAL 2 INCH AMOUNTS, WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE MAJOR FLOODING OR MAJOR
RISES ON AREA RIVERS. OVERALL, IT WILL BE JUST SOAKING WET.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE MILD SIDE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S AND LOWS MAINLY IN THE 40S.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1100 AM CST FRI FEB 13 2026
RAIN WILL COME TO AN END SUNDAY NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MOVE IN AND A BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SPREAD FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS WILL SET US UP FOR
SOME REALLY NICE, WARM, SPRING-LIKE WEATHER NEXT WEEK. MONDAY
SHOULD BRING HIGHS IN THE 60S, AND MANY AREAS WILL SOAR WELL INTO
THE 70S TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. OUR FORECAST TEMPERATURES ARE
AROUND 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. RECORD HIGHS FOR NASHVILLE NEXT
WEEK ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
LATE WEEK, THE RIDGE WILL FLATTEN AS A COUPLE OF WEAK WAVES MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA. IN ADDITIONAL TO LOW SHOWER CHANCES LATE WEEK,
THESE SYSTEMS MAY KNOCK TEMPS DOWN SLIGHTLY, ALTHOUGH READINGS
WILL STAY WELL ABOVE NORMAL.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1125 AM CST FRI FEB 13 2026
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE AIRFIELDS THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE LIGHT, FAVORING ESE TO SE. ADDED A PROB30
GROUP FOR BNA TO HANDLE INCREASING COVERAGE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
MID TOMORROW AFTERNOON, THOUGH KEPT FLIGHT CATEGORY VFR.
WIDESPREAD RAIN IS LOOKING LIKELY AFTER 00Z TOMORROW WHICH WILL
PERSIST INTO SUNDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 61 37 62 49 / 0 0 50 100
CLARKSVILLE 60 37 61 47 / 0 0 60 100
CROSSVILLE 54 32 57 42 / 0 0 10 100
COLUMBIA 61 37 60 47 / 0 0 40 100
COOKEVILLE 56 35 59 45 / 0 0 20 100
JAMESTOWN 54 32 59 42 / 0 0 10 100
LAWRENCEBURG 60 38 59 48 / 0 0 30 100
MURFREESBORO 60 34 62 47 / 0 0 30 100
WAVERLY 60 39 58 47 / 0 0 60 100
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION.....SIZEMORE
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