205
FXUS64 KOHX 100523
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1223 AM CDT SAT OCT 10 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1219 AM CDT SAT OCT 10 2026
- REMNANTS OF ISAIAS WILL BRING HIGH RAIN CHANCES AND GUSTY WINDS
OF 40+ MPH THIS WEEKEND. RAIN TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 1
TO 2 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. THE TORNADO
THREAT IS VERY LOW BUT NON-ZERO.
- WARM, DRY WEATHER RETURNS MONDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1043 PM CDT FRI OCT 9 2026
HURRICANE ISAIAS MADE LANDFALL AROUND 8:30 CDT THIS EVENING NEAR
DESTIN, FLORIDA. THE HURRICANE IS GRADUALLY MOVING NORTH AND WILL
CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY. MODELS HAVE RAIN
CROSSING THE TN/AL BORDER AROUND 3 AM AND SPREADING NORTH. THE
ACTIVITY WILL BECOME MORE SHOWERY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR
WRAPS AROUND FROM THE SOUTHWEST ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-65. WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO INCREASE AROUND DAWN WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15-25 MPH
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SOME GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN ON THE SOUTHERN PLATEAU DURING
THE MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL
SUBSIDE BY SUNSET. REGARDING THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT, THE
PROBABILITIES LOOK VERY LOW. A QUICK SPIN UP CANNOT BE TOTALLY
RULED OUT OVER THE PLATEAU BETWEEN 00-06Z BUT THERE WILL BE NO
SURFACE-BASED CAPE AND WILL BE COMPLETELY SHEAR-DRIVEN THEREFORE
MY CONFIDENCE THAT WE SEE ANYTHING IS VERY LOW.
BY 06Z SUNDAY, THE CENTER OF THE REMNANTS WILL BE OVER NORTH ALABAMA
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUING. THE LOW WILL LIFT THROUGH MIDDLE
TENNESSEE ON SUNDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS SPINNING AROUND THE
CENTER. RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE DURING THE MORNING AND
THE AFTERNOON AS THE LOW QUICKLY EXITS TO THE NORTHEAST.
REGARDING RAINFALL TOTALS, MODELS HAVE SOME POCKETS OF 1-2" BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN THE SOUTH AND ALONG THE EASTERN PLATEAU WITH
AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-40 PICKING UP LESS THAN AN INCH. 00Z
HREF DOES SHOW A 10% CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED POCKET OR TWO OF 3"
OVER THE PLATEAU. DURING HEAVIER DOWNPOURS, THERE WILL BE MORE
RUNOFF THAN NORMAL DUE TO THE VERY DRY SOILS IN PLACE. WHILE MY
CONFIDENCE IN FLASH FLOODING ISN'T HIGH, THERE'S ENOUGH OF A
THREAT TO WARRANT THE FLOOD WATCH.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1043 PM CDT FRI OCT 9 2026
BEHIND THE REMNANTS OF ISAIAS RIDGING WILL QUICKLY BUILD INTO THE
AREA ON MONDAY WHICH WILL MEAN ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND DRY
CONDITIONS AGAIN. THE DRY CONDITIONS WILL HOLD THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY. BY MIDWEEK, A SURFACE BOUNDARY MAY SET UP NORTH OF THE
AREA WHICH COULD REINTRODUCE SOME LOW RAIN CHANCES BY MID TO LATE
WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1219 AM CDT SAT OCT 10 2026
FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE THIS TAF CYCLE AS REMNANTS OF
HURRICANE ISAIAS MOVE INTO MIDDLE TN LATER THIS MORNING.
WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD TERMINALS AFTER
12Z WITH GRADUALLY LOWERING CIGS, EVENTUALLY DROPPING INTO OR JUST
NEAR LIFR THRESHOLDS. PERIODS OF RESTRICTED VISIBILITY WILL ALSO
OCCUR IN HEAVIER DOWNPOURS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 71 59 75 58 / 90 90 30 0
CLARKSVILLE 69 57 76 56 / 90 90 30 0
CROSSVILLE 68 55 66 53 / 100 90 70 0
COLUMBIA 70 57 76 55 / 100 80 20 0
COOKEVILLE 71 58 68 55 / 90 90 70 0
JAMESTOWN 70 58 67 56 / 90 80 80 10
LAWRENCEBURG 69 56 75 54 / 100 80 20 0
MURFREESBORO 73 58 75 55 / 90 90 30 0
WAVERLY 66 56 75 57 / 100 90 30 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 8 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR TNZ005>011-023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095.
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR TNZ024>028-030-032-
056>066-075-077>080-093>095.
SHORT TERM...REAGAN
LONG TERM....REAGAN
AVIATION.....BAGGETT
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