567
FXUS64 KOHX 051746
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1246 PM CDT FRI JUN 5 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1241 PM CDT FRI JUN 5 2026
- RAIN-FREE WEATHER WITH LOWER HUMIDITY THROUGH SATURDAY.
- TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S THIS
WEEKEND, WITH SOME 90S POSSIBLE LATER NEXT WEEK.
- RAIN AND STORM CHANCES WILL RETURN ON SUNDAY AND EXTEND INTO
NEXT WEEK. THE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS IS VERY LOW FOR THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1044 AM CDT FRI JUN 5 2026
WE BEGIN THE DAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RETREATING EASTWARD
AND HEADING TOWARD A BERMUDA HIGH PATTERN. ALOFT, A SURFACE RIDGE
IS ALIGNED TO OUR EAST, BUT THAT ISN'T GOING TO CHANGE QUITE SO
FAST. HERE IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE, THE AIR MASS IS GRADUALLY WARMING
UP GIVEN THAT WE'VE HAD SEVERAL DAYS OF SUNNY WEATHER ON END.
ALSO, WITH THE SURFACE HIGH PULLING OFF TO THE EAST, WE'RE GETTING
INTO A SOUTHERLY FLOW, WHICH MEANS INCREASINGLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND ALSO RISING DEW POINTS. SO WE'LL GET TO ENJOY TWO
MORE RAIN-FREE DAYS BEFORE AN ABRUPT PATTERN SHIFT.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1044 AM CDT FRI JUN 5 2026
RAIN AND STORM CHANCES WILL COME BACK AT US SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY AND LINGER THROUGH NEXT WEEK. IT APPEARS THAT BY SUNDAY,
WE CAN EXPECT A SURFACE BOUNDARY TO DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF
MIDDLE TENNESSEE WHILE A DEEP UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS TO OUR WEST.
GIVEN THE INCREASED TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY LEVELS, WE CAN
EXPECT APPRECIABLE INSTABILITY ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE STARTING ON
SUNDAY, SO THE INGREDIENTS ARE THERE FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED
CONVECTION, ALTHOUGH THERE'S REALLY NOTHING TO SUGGEST ANYTHING
ORGANIZED FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. BY MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT,
THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE IS LIKELY TO SWEEP ACROSS THE MID
STATE, SO WE CAN EXPECT INCREASED RAIN AND STORM CHANCES WITH
ALSO THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME ORGANIZED CONVECTION AHEAD OF AND
ALONG THE SHORTWAVE. AS YET, THE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS REMAINS
VERY LOW. LOOK FOR POPS TO DROP OFF SOMEWHAT BY TUESDAY THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK, ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS. AND WITH SUMMER-LIKE DEW POINTS PERSISTING
THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF NEXT WEEK, THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
DAYTIME INSTABILITY FOR DAILY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING PEAK-
HEATING HOURS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT FRI JUN 5 2026
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT SOUTH WINDS GUSTING
BETWEEN 10 TO 15 KTS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. WINDS
RELAX THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. WINDS REMAIN SOUTH THROUGH SATURDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 66 89 71 86 / 0 0 20 40
CLARKSVILLE 66 88 70 85 / 0 0 20 50
CROSSVILLE 60 82 65 81 / 0 0 10 30
COLUMBIA 64 88 69 84 / 0 0 30 60
COOKEVILLE 63 84 67 82 / 0 0 10 30
JAMESTOWN 61 84 65 83 / 0 0 10 30
LAWRENCEBURG 63 85 68 82 / 0 0 20 50
MURFREESBORO 64 88 69 86 / 0 0 20 40
WAVERLY 66 87 70 84 / 0 10 30 60
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM....ROSE
AVIATION.....CRAVENS
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