179
FXUS64 KOHX 030107
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
707 PM CST FRI JAN 2 2026
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 701 PM CST FRI JAN 2 2026
- WIDESPREAD, MAINLY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT AND LOOK TO EXIT MIDDLE TENNESSEE SATURDAY
MORNING.
- FOLLOWING A SEASONALLY COOL WEEKEND, WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN NEXT WEEK.
- NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 701 PM CST FRI JAN 2 2026
A WARM FRONT LIES PRIMARILY TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF MIDDLE
TENNESSEE THIS EVENING, WITH MAINLY LIGHT RAIN CONTINUING TO
SPREAD INTO THE MID STATE. LATER TONIGHT AND TOMORROW, A SURFACE
LOW WILL PASS BY TO OUR SOUTH AND TAKE THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE
WITH IT. SO WE EXPECT WIDESPREAD, MAINLY LIGHT RAIN TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE
EXITING THE MID STATE. LOOK FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES TO
SETTLE IN SATURDAY NIGHT, SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE A WARMER
PATTERN MOVES RIGHT BACK IN BY THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1102 AM CST FRI JAN 2 2026
AS A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SITS OVER THE MID-STATE, CLOUDS
OVERTAKE THE AREA ON SATELLITE. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ARE MOVING IN
FROM THE WEST ACROSS THE TENNESSEE RIVER, HOWEVER, THIS MORNING'S
SOUNDING SHOWS A LOT OF DRY AIR TO OVERCOME ALOFT. SAFE TO SAY RAIN
CHANCES WILL INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON, AND CONTINUE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. BY SATURDAY, MOST OF THE RAIN SHOULD BE IN EASTERN
TENNESSEE, WITH SOME LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON THE CUMBERLAND
PLATEAU. AS FOR AMOUNTS, QPF CONTINUES TO TREND DOWN AND SOUTHWARD.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR OVER A QUARTER OF AN INCH TO HALF AN INCH OF
ACCUMULATION LOOKS TO BE SOUTH OF I-40 TO THE ALABAMA STATE LINE AND
WEST OF I-65. SOME AREAS EAST OF I-65 BUT SOUTH OF I-40 COULD GET A
QUARTER OF AN INCH, BUT AS YOU GET ONTO THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU, OUR
EXPECTED RAINFALL AMOUNTS DROP BELOW THAT. THE REST OF THE AREA
LOOKS TO GET A WETTING RAIN (0.10"), MAYBE UP TO 0.20".
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TODAY AND SATURDAY, HIGHS IN THE UPPER
40S TO MID 50S, WITH SOME PLACES GETTING INTO THE UPPER 50S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 30S AND 40S.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1102 AM CST FRI JAN 2 2026
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL DROP OUR TEMPERATURES TO END THE WEEKEND ON A
CHILLIER NOTE, WITH LOWS SUNDAY MORNING FIRMLY BELOW FREEZING IN THE
20S TO LOW 30S, AND HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. THIS WILL BE
SHORT-LIVED, WITH A REBOUND COMING FAST DUE TO SOUTHERLY WINDS.
HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL APPROACH 60 DEGREES, AND SOME PLACES COULD
REACH THE LOW 60S.
MID-WEEK NEXT WEEK, THERE ARE SOME HINTS IN THE GUIDANCE THAT
ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE. CONFIDENCE
IS LOW RIGHT NOW, AS THE VARIOUS MODELS CANNOT GET IN THE SAME
BALLPARK AS EACH OTHER RIGHT NOW WITH REGARDS TO AMOUNTS, TIMING,
AND LOCATION. GIVEN THE WARMTH THAT LOOKS TO COME NEXT WEEK AS WELL
(HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S!), SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE A POSSIBILITY
RIGHT NOW. AGAIN, CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO SAY IF THIS WILL BE MORE
WIDESPREAD, JUST SOMETHING TO WATCH GOING INTO THE COMING DAYS.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 536 PM CST FRI JAN 2 2026
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AS LIGHT SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH MIDDLE TN
THIS EVENING. POCKETS OF MVFR DEVELOP AFTER 04Z AND INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. NORTH WINDS INCREASE SATURDAY AFTERNOON, AND SKIES
CLEAR OUT WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING. THERE REMAINS ABOUT A
30% CHANCE FOR IFR CIGS OVER THE PLATEAU OVERNIGHT AND TOMORROW
MORNING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 41 55 30 49 / 50 10 0 0
CLARKSVILLE 35 50 26 46 / 30 10 0 0
CROSSVILLE 41 55 28 47 / 60 20 0 0
COLUMBIA 43 56 29 49 / 80 10 0 0
COOKEVILLE 41 54 28 46 / 50 10 0 0
JAMESTOWN 38 53 26 45 / 30 20 0 0
LAWRENCEBURG 44 56 29 49 / 90 10 0 0
MURFREESBORO 41 55 29 49 / 70 10 0 0
WAVERLY 38 51 28 47 / 50 10 0 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE.......ROSE
SHORT TERM...HOLLEY
LONG TERM....HOLLEY
AVIATION.....CRAVENS
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