883
FXUS64 KOHX 161733
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1233 PM CDT WED SEP 16 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1231 PM CDT WED SEP 16 2026
- VERY HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WITH TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT INDICES TO
CONTINUE THIS WEEK. A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH
SATURDAY FOR MOST OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE.
- NOT AS HOT EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK, BUT OVERALL TEMPERATURES
WILL STAY ABOVE-NORMAL FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.
- LOW RAIN CHANCES MAINLY FOR THE PLATEAU THIS WEEKEND. LOW TO
MEDIUM RAIN CHANCES AREA-WIDE EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1155 AM CDT WED SEP 16 2026
RAP MESOANALYSIS SHOWS THE DEEP-LAYER RIDGE CENTERED RIGHT OVER
TENNESSEE CURRENTLY, WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS NEAR 600 DECAMETERS.
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS REMAIN SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY AND WE'VE
ALREADY GOT DECENT MIXING OUTSIDE WITH A FEW WIND GUSTS OBSERVED.
WE'LL BE ON OUR WAY TO HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S
WEST OF THE PLATEAU THIS AFTERNOON. SOME SPOTS COULD HIT 100
DEGREES AGAIN. BNA'S LATEST FORECAST HIGH OF 99 WOULD TIE THE
RECORD SET IN 2019. LOOKING AT OBSERVATIONS SO FAR THIS MORNING
SHOW WE ARE TRENDING 2-3 DEGREES BEHIND THIS TIME YESTERDAY WITH A
SLIGHT COOLING OF 850 MB TEMPERATURES EVIDENT ON THE MORNING
SOUNDING, SO PERHAPS WE STAY JUST UNDER 100 DEGREES AT BNA TODAY,
WE'LL SEE. NONETHELESS, NEAR RECORD BREAKING TEMPERATURES
COMBINING WITH HUMID AIR IS LEADING TO CONTINUATION OF EXCESSIVE
HEAT THAT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE SHORT-TERM WITH LITTLE TO NO
RAIN CHANCES. FORECAST/NBM TEMPERATURES FOR TOMORROW ARE NEARLY
IDENTICAL OF THAT TODAY.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1155 AM CDT WED SEP 16 2026
THE CENTER OF THE ANOMALOUS RIDGE WILL START TO SHIFT A LITTLE TO
OUR WEST ON FRIDAY AS IT INTERACTS WITH AN UPPER-LOW MOVING WEST
TOWARD FLORIDA. BY THEN BETTER TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE IS EXPECTED
TO WRAP AROUND INTO THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE, BASICALLY
DOWN THROUGH THE APPALACHIANS. THIS WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED DIURNAL
CONVECTION FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND, MAINLY FOCUSED NEAR AND ACROSS
THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU.
FORECAST DETAILS FOR NEXT WEEK ARE A LITTLE LESS CERTAIN IN SOME
WAYS, BUT MEDIUM-RANGE GUIDANCE/ENSEMBLES SUGGEST A DECREASE IN
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASE IN RAIN/STORM CHANCES AS WE ARE MORE
INFLUENCED BY SYSTEMS PASSING TO OUR NORTH WITH A WEAKER RIDGE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. ASSOCIATED PRESENCE OF A FRONT/SURFACE
TROUGH WILL ALSO PLAY A ROLE IN ENCOURAGING BETTER CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE EARLY TO MID WEEK. EITHER WAY, THE TREND IS AN
IMPROVEMENT AS CONDITIONS DON'T LOOK AS HOT, BUT REMAIN ABOVE-
NORMAL TEMPERATURE WISE.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT WED SEP 16 2026
TAFS REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. WINDS ARE SW TO W MOST SITES, BUT SHOULD
STAY SOMEWHAT VARIABLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH FEW/SCT CU. WINDS TURN
MORE NW TO N TOMORROW AND REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KTS WITH THE RIDGE
MOVING JUST TO OUR WEST.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 76 99 75 98 / 0 0 0 0
CLARKSVILLE 74 100 74 99 / 0 0 0 10
CROSSVILLE 67 91 69 90 / 0 10 0 10
COLUMBIA 73 100 73 100 / 0 0 0 10
COOKEVILLE 71 94 71 93 / 0 10 0 10
JAMESTOWN 69 91 70 90 / 0 20 0 10
LAWRENCEBURG 71 98 72 97 / 0 10 0 10
MURFREESBORO 73 100 73 99 / 0 0 0 0
WAVERLY 75 99 75 98 / 0 0 0 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR TNZ005>010-023>033-
056>065-075-077-078-093>095.
SHORT TERM...SIZEMORE
LONG TERM....SIZEMORE
AVIATION.....SIZEMORE
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