647
FXUS64 KOHX 071728
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1228 PM CDT SUN AUG 7 2022
..NEW AVIATION
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1014 AM CDT SUN AUG 7 2022
AS CONVECTION HAS NOT INITIATED YET, CURTAILED POPS BACK FOR NEXT
HOUR OR TWO. TWEAKED CURRENT HOURLY TEMPERATURE, DEWPOINT, AND
WIND SPEED/DIRECTION GRIDS BLENDING THEM WITH ASSOCIATED
PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS
GRIDDED VALUES. CURRENT REGIONAL TEMPERATURE TRENDS GENERALLY IN
LINE WITH FORECASTED HIGHS. REMAINDER OF FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE
ON TRACK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 AM CDT SUN AUG 7 2022
THE RADAR IS QUIET AFTER STAYING BUSY ON SATURDAY. TODAY LOOKS
PRETTY SIMILAR WITH A NEBULOUS UPPER AIR PATTERN AND AMPLE
MOISTURE SITTING AROUND. CONVECTIVE INITIATION SHOULD START AROUND
LUNCH TIME WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS LINGERING THROUGH
THE EVENING. PWAT VALUES WILL REMAIN AROUND 1.8" TO 2" WITH 10 KTS
OF BULK SHEAR. DCAPE VALUES WILL MAX OUT AROUND MID AFTERNOON
WITH AROUND 1000 J/KG. THIS MEANS PULSE STORMS WILL BE ABLE TO
PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN WHICH COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING AS WELL
AS ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS FROM WET MICROBURSTS. STORMS WILL
BECOME LESS NUMEROUS AFTER SUNSET WITH THE RADAR LIKELY BEING
CLEAN AFTER MIDNIGHT. MONDAY LOOKS LIKE A REPEAT FROM TODAY.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 AM CDT SUN AUG 7 2022
AMPLE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS. WEAK TROUGHING
INFLUENCES BEGIN TO REACH DOWN INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE ON TUESDAY
WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW ON WEDNESDAY
DRAGGING A SURFACE FRONT ALONG WITH IT. THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL
OCCUR ON THURSDAY WITH LOWER HUMIDITY AND LOWER PRECIP CHANCES
BEHIND IT. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY LOOK RELATIVELY PLEASANT FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT SUN AUG 7 2022
PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF SCATTERED TSRA IN
THE AREA. TSRA WILL BE AROUND THE AREA FROM NOW THROUGH 01Z AND
COULD LEAD TO DECREASED FLIGHT CATEGORIES IF THEY MOVE DIRECTLY
OVER TERMINAL.
S/SW WINDS WILL BECOME MORE WSW TOMORROW. WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW
10 KNOTS OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS, BUT BRIEF GUSTS CLOSER TO 25
TO 30 KTS ARE POSSIBLE IF A THUNDERSTORMS PASSES NEARBY OR
DIRECTLY OVER TERMINAL.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 74 92 74 90 / 40 50 30 70
CLARKSVILLE 73 92 73 89 / 40 40 30 70
CROSSVILLE 68 83 68 82 / 30 60 20 70
COLUMBIA 72 91 72 90 / 30 50 30 70
COOKEVILLE 71 86 70 85 / 30 50 30 70
JAMESTOWN 67 84 68 83 / 30 60 20 70
LAWRENCEBURG 72 89 71 87 / 40 50 30 70
MURFREESBORO 72 91 72 89 / 40 50 30 70
WAVERLY 72 92 72 89 / 30 40 40 70
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE.......JB WRIGHT
SHORT TERM...REAGAN
LONG TERM....REAGAN
AVIATION.....ADCOCK
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page