967
FXUS64 KOHX 210737
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
137 AM CST THU NOV 21 2024
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 117 AM CST THU NOV 21 2024
IT'S COOLED OFF QUITE A BIT TONIGHT WITH CURRENT TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM THE MID 30S ON THE PLATEAU TO LOW 40S ACROSS THE
REST OF MIDDLE TN. WINDS ARE STARTING TO PICK BACK UP WHICH IS
MAKING WIND CHILL VALUES DROP INTO THE 30S. THIS WILL LIMIT
WIDESPREAD FROST DEVELOPMENT FOR TONIGHT. TODAY IS GOING TO FEEL
MUCH COLDER AS THE NEXT PUSH OF ENERGY FROM THE POWERFUL UPPER
LEVEL LOW SWEEPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. AN ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW
WILL DROP DOWN THIS AFTERNOON WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
SURROUNDING IT. THIS FEATURE WILL LEAD TO WIND GUSTS NEAR 35 MPH
STARTING LATER THIS MORNING AND WILL LAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON. SO THE WINDS PLUS AFTERNOON HIGHS ONLY NEAR 50 WILL
YIELD A MUCH COOLER FEEL-LIKE TEMPERATURE. WINDS WILL SLIGHTLY
RELAX AS WE HEAD INTO THURSDAY NIGHT, BUT WILL STILL BE GUSTY
ENOUGH TO LEAD TO VERY COLD WIND CHILL VALUES. ANYWHERE FROM 20
DEGREES ALONG THE PLATEAU TO 30 ACROSS WESTERN MIDDLE TN. COLD.
MODELS ARE STILL HOLDING ON TO SNOW POTENTIAL FOR PORTIONS OF THE
PLATEAU TONIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THAT PUSH OF UPPER-LEVEL
ENERGY MENTIONED ABOVE. THE HREF APPEARS TO BE THE MOST EXCITED
ABOUT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AS THE 00Z RUN CURRENTLY SHOWS 1-2"
STRETCHING FROM CUMBERLAND COUNTY UP THROUGH WESTERN CLAY AND
PICKETT COUNTIES. THE LATEST NBM SOLUTION DEPICTS A MORE REALISTIC
SCENARIO OF VALUES RANGING FROM A DUSTING TO JUST A TOUCH MORE
THAN 1 INCH OVER THE UPPER CUMBERLAND. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A
LARGE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IN THE MID-LEVELS WITH TEMPERATURES
FLIRTING WITH 32 DEGREES AT THE SURFACE, WHICH WOULD LEAD TO SOME
MELTING FOR WHAT WOULD FALL. THE ONE THING THAT COULD HELP PUSH
OUT HIGHER TOTALS (MAYBE 2 INCHES) WOULD BE THE REALLY COLD
NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW, ESPECIALLY ACROSS AREAS OF THE UPPER
CUMBERLAND. OVERALL, THOUGH, IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE MUCH
ACCUMULATION IF ANY IS EXPECTED FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE PLATEAU.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 117 AM CST THU NOV 21 2024
THE COOL TEMPERATURES WILL STICK WITH US THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING AS
THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW PUSHES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. WIDESPREAD FROST
IS EXPECTED SATURDAY MORNING AS WINDS START TO CALM. TEMPERATURES
WILL GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE DAY INTO THE 50S. WINDS WILL TAKE
A SOUTHERLY SHIFT, BRINGING MOISTURE AND WARMTH BACK INTO THE
AREA BY SUNDAY AS HIGHS REACH INTO THE MID 60S. THIS WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR OUR NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WHICH COMES MONDAY. THE OVERALL
WEATHER PATTERN FOR NEXT WEEK GENERALLY LOOKS UNSETTLED WITH A
NUMBER OF DAYS FEATURING RAIN CHANCES. THERE ARE STILL SOME
INCONSISTENCIES IN THE UPPER AIR PATTERN BETWEEN MODELS, SO IT'S
TOO EARLY FOR A FINE-TUNED HOLIDAY FORECAST. STAY TUNED, THOUGH!
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CST WED NOV 20 2024
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A MUCH DRIER
AIRMASS HAS MOVED OVER THE MID STATE. THIS SHOULD LIMIT ANY FOG
DEVELOPMENT IN THE MORNING AS CURRENT DEWPOINTS ARE SITTING THE
UPPER TEENS TO UPPER 20S. THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE WINDS
AS FREQUENT GUSTS BETWEEN 20-25 KTS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN DURING THE
DAY AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ADDITIONALLY, THERE COULD BE
SOME LLWS AROUND 35 KT ALONG THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU BETWEEN
03Z-12Z...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THIS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 51 37 51 37 / 0 0 0 0
CLARKSVILLE 48 37 50 35 / 0 0 0 0
CROSSVILLE 44 29 43 31 / 0 40 20 0
COLUMBIA 50 34 50 31 / 0 0 0 0
COOKEVILLE 45 32 45 33 / 0 20 10 0
JAMESTOWN 43 30 43 34 / 10 50 20 0
LAWRENCEBURG 50 33 49 30 / 0 0 0 0
MURFREESBORO 50 35 50 31 / 0 0 0 0
WAVERLY 48 35 50 33 / 0 0 0 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...BAGGETT
LONG TERM....BAGGETT
AVIATION.....12
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