149
FXUS64 KOHX 222246
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
546 PM CDT WED JUL 22 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 540 PM CDT WED JUL 22 2026
- COOLER AND DRIER AIR IS MOVING IN, BUT SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL LINGER ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH AND PLATEAU THROUGH TONIGHT.
- MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. NO SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
- HOT AND HUMID WITH LOW CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS NEXT
WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1101 AM CDT WED JUL 22 2026
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE COLD FRONT HAS STALLED RIGHT ACROSS THE
MIDDLE OF THE CWA THIS MORNING AS A PERSISTENT LINE OF SHOWERS
CONTINUES. THIS LINE STRETCHES FROM CUMBERLAND COUNTY BACK THROUGH
PERRY COUNTY, AND RAIN AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN MINIMAL THUS FAR.
FORTUNATELY, MOST OF THIS LINE IS DRAPED JUST SOUTH OF THE HARDEST
HIT AREAS FROM LAST NIGHT'S FLOODING, BUT THERE ARE A FEW
COUNTIES COVERED BY THIS BAND THAT RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN LAST NIGHT
THAT WE'LL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO VERY
SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHEAST, GRADUALLY PUSHING THIS BAND OF SHOWERS
WITH IT THROUGH THE DAY. A DRIER ATMOSPHERE IS OBSERVED TODAY WITH
PWATS DROPPING FROM 2.28" LAST NIGHT TO 1.65" THIS MORNING. THERE
IS A NEARLY 10 DEGREE DIFFERENCE IN DEW POINT TEMPERATURE BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT, SO DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER IN AS THE
FRONT DRIFTS SOUTH. OTHERWISE, LINGERING CLOUD COVER IS HELPING
KEEP THINGS MUCH COOLER THUS FAR TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES FORECAST
TO GET INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
MOVING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH PROGRESS
THE FRONT MAKES TODAY, SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE CWA. DRY ELSEWHERE WITH LOWS IN THE LOW
TO MID 60S. THURSDAY WILL BE DRY AND COOLER AS WINDS REMAIN OUT OF
THE NORTH. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1101 AM CDT WED JUL 22 2026
BY FRIDAY, MIDDLE TN WILL FIND ITSELF FIXED ON THE EASTERN FRINGES
OF AN EXPANDING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT. A SHORTWAVE WILL
RIPPLE THROUGH FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY THAT WILL BRING OUR NEXT BOUT
OF ACTIVE WEATHER. DEEP GULF MOISTURE WILL MAKE A RETURN AS PWATS
ABOVE 2" ADVECT INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR BOUTS
OF HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY. SEVERE
WEATHER DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY AT THIS TIME AS INSTABILITY VALUES
ON THE WHOLE ARE INSUFFICIENT AND PROFILES ARE VERY SATURATED. THE
BIGGEST THING WE WILL BE LOOKING OUT FOR WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING, ESPECIALLY GIVEN ANTECEDENT CONDITONS.
THE PROBABILITY OF RECEIVING 1" OR MORE IS LOW TO MEDIUM, RANGING
FROM ~30% NEAR NASHVILLE TO 45-50% ALONG THE TN/AL STATE LINE.
ACTIVITY WILL WIND DOWN SATURDAY EVENING AND WE WILL FALL BACK
INTO THE HOT AND MUGGY PATTERN WE ARE ALL TOO FAMILIAR WITH AS WE
MOVE INTO NEXT WEEK. THE EVER-EXPANDING HIGH ALOFT WILL CONTINUE
ITS PUSH OVER THE MID-STATE, YIELDING DAILY LOW RAIN CHANCES (20%
OR LESS) AND CRANKING THE HEAT BACK UP. HIGHS WILL BE BACK IN THE
MID TO UPPER 90S BY MONDAY AND WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE
WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 540 PM CDT WED JUL 22 2026
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PERSIST ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN ZONES
BUT ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE SPARSE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
TONIGHT, LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY A SCT TO BKN 5 KFT
DECK. CSV AND SRB HAVE A CHANCE FOR PATCHY MVFR FOG EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING WITH CONDITIONS FORECAST TO RETURN TO VFR BY
~13/14Z.
SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS WILL REMAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
TOMORROW EXCEPT FOR TERMINALS NEAR THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU WHERE
SCT TO BKN LOW TO MID CLOUDS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE DAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 66 84 65 86 / 0 0 0 10
CLARKSVILLE 62 83 61 86 / 0 0 0 0
CROSSVILLE 62 81 63 82 / 30 10 20 30
COLUMBIA 66 84 65 87 / 10 0 10 30
COOKEVILLE 64 81 63 82 / 10 10 10 20
JAMESTOWN 61 81 61 82 / 20 0 0 10
LAWRENCEBURG 66 83 65 85 / 20 10 20 40
MURFREESBORO 67 84 65 87 / 10 0 10 20
WAVERLY 64 83 63 86 / 0 0 0 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...BAGGETT
LONG TERM....BAGGETT
AVIATION.....CAHILL
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page