701
FXUS64 KOHX 081719
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1219 PM CDT THU OCT 8 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1218 PM CDT THU OCT 8 2026
- DRY WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY WITH COOL NIGHTS AND WARM DAYS.
- REMNANTS OF ISAIAS WILL BRING HIGH RAIN CHANCES AND GUSTY WINDS
THIS WEEKEND. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1-3+", WIND GUSTS UP TO 30-40
MPH, AND BRIEF SPIN-UP TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE.
- WARM, DRY WEATHER RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1127 AM CDT THU OCT 8 2026
OUR WARM, DRY WEATHER IS HANGING ON AS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
KEEPS CONDITIONS BENIGN AT THE SURFACE. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE 80S TODAY AND NEARLY 90 IN SOME LOCATIONS TOMORROW WITH
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE 50S AND 60S.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1127 AM CDT THU OCT 8 2026
HURRICANE ISAIAS IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE GULF COAST
TOMORROW, DISSIPATING AS IT MOVES NNW. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH EARLY SATURDAY AND PEAK
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS TROPICAL SYSTEM
WILL BRING AN ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE, LIKELY PRODUCING 1-3" OF
RAIN ACROSS THE AREA (HIGHEST SOUTH OF I-40). ALTHOUGH WE NEED THE
RAIN GIVEN THE ONGOING MODERATE TO EXTREME DROUGHT ACROSS MIDDLE
TN, OUR PROLONGED DRY CONDITIONS WILL REDUCE THE SOIL'S ABILITY TO
ABSORB WATER AND WILL INCREASE OUR CHANCES FOR FLASH FLOODING.
THEREFORE, A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF MIDDLE TN
FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
WIND GUSTS UP TO 30-40 MPH ARE EXPECTED AND A FEW BRIEF SPIN-UP
TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
TROPICAL TORNADOES CAN FORM AND DISSIPATE QUICKLY AND CAN DEVELOP
FROM WEAK SHOWERS OR STORMS.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY WITH THE LAST OF
THE RAIN CLEARING THE AREA BY SUNDAY NIGHT.
AT THE START OF NEXT WEEK, WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN
WITH DAILY HIGHS IN THE 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S AND 60S.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1218 PM CDT THU OCT 8 2026
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS UNDER 8
KNOTS BECOMING EASTERLY AFTER 06Z.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 55 88 62 74 / 0 0 40 90
CLARKSVILLE 53 90 61 75 / 0 0 10 90
CROSSVILLE 53 79 55 67 / 0 0 50 90
COLUMBIA 54 89 61 73 / 0 0 50 90
COOKEVILLE 56 83 60 71 / 0 0 40 90
JAMESTOWN 53 81 58 69 / 0 0 30 80
LAWRENCEBURG 54 87 59 72 / 0 0 60 90
MURFREESBORO 55 89 62 75 / 0 0 50 90
WAVERLY 56 87 62 71 / 0 0 30 90
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
TNZ024>027-056>062-075-077-079-093>095.
SHORT TERM...CAHILL
LONG TERM....CAHILL
AVIATION.....MUELLER
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