264
FXUS64 KOHX 072318
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
518 PM CST WED JAN 7 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 514 PM CST WED JAN 7 2026
- NEAR-RECORD HIGHS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS,
COLDER WEATHER RETURNS SATURDAY.
- HIGH CHANCES FOR RAIN AND A FEW T-STORMS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL COULD CAUSE FLOODING FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
- LOW CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1052 AM CST WED JAN 7 2026
MORNING FOG AND LOW CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED THE AREA, AS HIGHER CLOUDS
PROGRESS EAST FROM WESTERN TENNESSEE. A DEVELOPING RIDGE WILL MAKE
TODAY WARM, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. THIS RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE OUR TEMPERATURES, EVEN AS IT PUSHES EAST
THURSDAY. EXPECT A RUN AT RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES TOMORROW, WITH
HIGHS CURRENTLY FORECASTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. THE
FORECASTED HIGH FOR NASHVILLE IS 71 DEGREES TOMORROW, WHICH TIES OUR
RECORD HIGH FROM 2019. THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BRING THE PASSAGE OF A
WARM FRONT, WHICH WILL INCREASE MOISTURE RETURN INTO THE AREA VIA
SOUTHERLY FLOW. SHOWERS ARE LIKELY IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE ACTUAL FRONT.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1052 AM CST WED JAN 7 2026
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN SOUTHERN COLORADO
AND DEEPEN AS IT PROGRESSES TOWARDS THE EAST, INTERACTING WITH A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. WITH MIDDLE TENNESSEE IN THE
WARM SECTOR OF THIS COMPLEX SYSTEM BY FRIDAY MORNING, THUNDERSTORMS
ARE A LIKELY SCENARIO IN THE MORNING DUE TO INCREASING ATMOSPHERIC
INSTABILITY BEFORE THE REAL FORCING KICKS IN AS THE COLD FRONT
APPROACHES. AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND ENTERS THE AREA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT, A LOW LEVEL JET IS FORECASTED TO
INTENSIFY OVER MIDDLE TENNESSEE, INCREASING OUR CONFIDENCE IN THE
OCCURRENCE OF SOME SEVERE STORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT. NOW, WHILE I
SAY "INCREASING OUR CONFIDENCE", THE OVERALL THREAT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER IS STILL LOW AT THIS TIME. TRENDS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THIS
IN THE GUIDANCE. IN A REASONABLE WORST CASE SCENARIO, WE GET SOME
SEVERE CLUSTER STORMS ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THAT
POSE A WIND AND TORNADO THREAT, WITH A LESSER HAIL THREAT. THE AREA
I'M MOST FOCUSED ON RIGHT NOW FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS SOUTH OF I-40
AND WEST OF I-65, NOT SAYING THE THREAT SHOULD BE DISREGARDED
ELSEWHERE IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE.
A SECONDARY THREAT TO MIDDLE TENNESSEE WITH THIS END OF THE WEEK
SYSTEM IS HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE FLOODING. THE SCENARIO BEING
PUT OUT IN SOME OF THE GUIDANCE CURRENTLY IS DEEP-LAYER FLOW BEING
PARALLEL TO THE FRONT IN THE MID-STATE. THIS MEANS THESE STORMS
WOULD BE SLOW MOVERS, AND HAVE A POSSIBILITY OF TRAINING, WHICH
WOULD LEAD TO AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING, ESPECIALLY IF
THUNDERSTORMS START TO TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREA. THIS MORE A
SIGNAL WE'RE MONITORING VS A FORECAST FOR FLOODING. RIGHT NOW,
LOOKING AT 1.5 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL BY SATURDAY MORNING IN THE
MID-STATE, SO WE'LL AT LEAST MAKE A DENT IN THIS DROUGHT WE HAVE
GOING ON.
SATURDAY WILL TURN A NEW LEAF IN THE PATTERN WITH COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS MOVING IN POST FRONTAL. HIGHS WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY
COOLER ON SUNDAY, AND STAY AROUND AVERAGE (OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
AVERAGE) THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 514 PM CST WED JAN 7 2026
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. PATCHY FOG WILL DEVELOP
AFTER 06Z OUTSIDE OF THE NASHVILLE METRO, IT WILL NOT BE AS
WIDESPREAD AS WHAT WE SAW THIS MORNING BUT WILL BRING PERIODS OF
MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 14Z. MVFR CIGS BUILDS IN AFTER 19Z FROM
WEST TO EAST. LIGHT WINDS UNDER 5 KNOTS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
BECOMING GUSTY OUT OF THE SOUTH AFTER 17Z, GUSTS TO 24 KNOTS
POSSIBLE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 50 71 63 70 / 0 10 50 90
CLARKSVILLE 49 69 62 71 / 0 10 70 80
CROSSVILLE 45 64 56 63 / 0 0 20 90
COLUMBIA 51 70 62 70 / 0 10 60 90
COOKEVILLE 46 67 59 66 / 0 10 40 100
JAMESTOWN 43 65 57 64 / 0 0 20 90
LAWRENCEBURG 51 69 61 68 / 0 10 50 90
MURFREESBORO 49 71 62 69 / 0 10 40 100
WAVERLY 50 69 61 69 / 0 10 80 80
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...HOLLEY
LONG TERM....HOLLEY
AVIATION.....MUELLER
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