769
FXUS64 KOHX 271129
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
629 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2026
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 614 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2026
- MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TODAY, MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH
OF I-40 THIS AFTERNOON. RAINFALL AMOUNTS LESS THAN 0.25"
EXPECTED.
- FAIR WEATHER THIS WEEKEND WITH MORNING LOWS IN THE 30S. FREEZING
TEMPERATURES FORECAST ACROSS THE PLATEAU SATURDAY MORNING.
- ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK WITH MEDIUM CHANCES FOR
RAIN/STORMS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 614 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2026
IT'S RELATIVELY WARM OUT THERE THIS MORNING WITH SOME VERY LIGHT
RETURNS STARTING TO SHOW UP ON RADAR ALONG THE TN-KY STATE LINE.
THE FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH HERE LATER THIS MORNING
ISN'T FAR AWAY. BREEZY NORTH WINDS ARE ALREADY BEING SHOWN
THROUGH PADUCAH AND ELIZABETHTOWN TO OUR NORTH AND ARE HEADED
THIS WAY. WE'RE STILL EXPECTING LIGHT RAIN FOR MOST EVERYONE
TODAY, BUT MAN, IT SURE ISN'T MUCH. I DON'T THINK ANYONE SEES MORE
THAN 0.25" AND MOST WILL SEE LESS THAN A TENTH (ESPECIALLY THOSE
SOUTH OF I-40). THE BULK OF TODAY'S RAINS WILL BE SEEN THIS
AFTERNOON AND SHOULD ONLY TAKE A FEW HOURS BEFORE THEY SKEEDADDLE
OUT OF HERE. BIGGEST IMPACT IF YOU HAVE OUTDOOR PLANS WILL BE THE
GUSTY WINDS STARTING LATER THIS MORNING WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
IF YOU NEED THE RAIN, SOAK UP WHAT YOU CAN BECAUSE THE WEEKEND
AHEAD IS DRY.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1035 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2026
FLOW ALOFT HAS BECOME MORE ZONAL TODAY AND THERE'S A DISTURBANCE
AND ASSOCIATED FRONT TO OUR NORTH WHICH IS RESPONSIBLE FOR A
CORRIDOR OF SHOWERS AND STORMS CURRENTLY. THIS FRONT WILL DIP
SOUTHWARD INTO OUR AREA TOMORROW, BUT WITH WEAKENING CONVERGENCE.
IT APPEARS WE'LL ONLY RECEIVE A DECAYED BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON WITH POST-FRONTAL
CLOUDS AND COLD ADVECTION. LIGHT RAIN AMOUNTS OF LESS THAN 0.2"
ARE EXPECTED. THINGS ARE STARTING TO DRY OUT A BIT ACROSS MIDDLE
TENNESSEE.
FOR SATURDAY IT WILL BE COOLER, PLEASANT WEATHER AND THAT WILL
CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY. THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE POTENTIAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS SATURDAY. WITH RECENT DRY WEATHER AND WARMTH,
FUEL MOISTURES ARE DRYING AND LITTLE RAIN AMOUNTS FRIDAY WILL NOT
MITIGATE THIS MUCH. LOW RHS AND SOME NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS COULD
POSE SOME LIMITED FIRE WEATHER RISK, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-40.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1035 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2026
SUBTROPICAL RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN DEVELOPING BY TUESDAY. PERSISTENT DEEP-
LAYER RIDGING TO OUR SOUTHEAST WILL ALLOW FOR SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS SPREADING ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI AND
TENNESSEE VALLEYS. THIS WILL MEAN INCREASING WARMTH INTO MID WEEK
ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN HUMIDITY AS WELL. MEDIUM-RANGE
GUIDANCE/ENSEMBLES DEPICT A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES TO APPROACH OUR
AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WHICH WILL RESULT IN MEDIUM CHANCES
FOR RAIN AND STORMS BOTH DAYS. IT'S TOO EARLY TO PREDICT ANY
HAZARDOUS WEATHER WITH THESE SYSTEMS, BUT CERTAINLY WORTH WATCHING
OVER THE COMING DAYS.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 614 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2026
SKIES REMAIN VFR FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THIS TAF CYCLE, BUT
WITH THE APPROACH OF OUR ONLY FRONTAL SYSTEM OF THE WEEK, MVFR
CIGS WILL MOVE INTO OUR TERMINALS LATE THIS MORNING (IFR FOR CSV)
AND STICK AROUND FOR ONLY A FEW HOURS. LIGHT RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY
SOME OF THESE LOWER CIGS DURING THE AFTERNOON. BIGGER IMPACT WILL
LIKELY BE THE GUSTY WINDS AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
EXPECT A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH AROUND THE TIME THE CIGS DROP OFF
WITH GUSTS OF 20-30 KTS THROUGH SUNSET. WHILE WINDS WILL RELAX A
LITTLE AFTER THAT, BREEZY NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 73 34 61 39 / 80 10 0 0
CLARKSVILLE 68 32 59 37 / 80 0 0 0
CROSSVILLE 71 31 56 37 / 70 20 0 0
COLUMBIA 75 35 61 39 / 70 20 0 0
COOKEVILLE 71 33 56 39 / 80 20 0 0
JAMESTOWN 69 30 55 36 / 80 10 0 0
LAWRENCEBURG 76 35 61 40 / 70 20 0 0
MURFREESBORO 75 35 62 39 / 70 20 0 0
WAVERLY 71 35 60 40 / 70 10 0 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE.......UNGER
SHORT TERM...SIZEMORE
LONG TERM....SIZEMORE
AVIATION.....UNGER
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