551
FXUS64 KOHX 241159
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
559 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 551 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2026
- WARMING TODAY WITH DRY, GUSTY CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
- MEDIUM TO HIGH RAIN CHANCES TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY.
- ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED INTO NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1011 PM CST MON FEB 23 2026
ALL IS CALM THIS EVENING ACROSS MIDDLE TN. CLOUD COVER IS RETREATING
AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO, LEAVING BEHIND A MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT. A
CLEAR NIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE UPPER-TEENS
TO LOW-20S TONIGHT, BUT THESE READINGS WILL REBOUND TUESDAY. AS AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES AREA, OUR SURFACE WINDS
WILL TURN SOUTHERLY. WARMER AIR BEGINS TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE
AREA, AND HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL REACH INTO THE MID-40S TO LOW-50S.
THIS SYSTEM WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR INCREASING MID TO HIGH-LEVEL
CLOUDS, AND ANOTHER BREEZY DAY WILL BE IN STORE AS SOUTHERLY WINDS
STRENGTHEN WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON. THESE
BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT, AND WITH
CLOUD COVER ALSO PERSISTING, LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WON'T BE QUITE AS
CHILLY WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER-30S TO LOW-40S.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1011 PM CST MON FEB 23 2026
MOST OF WEDNESDAY WILL BE QUIET AS WELL AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE
THEIR WARMING TREND INTO THE UPPER-50S TO LOW-60S. WITH SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PERSISTING, PWATS WILL BE ON THE RISE WITH VALUES
AROUND 1 INCH BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A MEDIUM TO
HIGH CHANCE FOR RAIN TO DEVELOP WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN BECOMING
MORE WIDESPREAD THURSDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON WITH THE PASSAGE OF A
COLD FRONT. MORE THAN ENOUGH WIND SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT WITH BULK
SHEAR VALUES OF 50-55 KNOTS. BUT THE LIMITING INGREDIENT IS STILL
INSTABILITY. CAPE VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE LOW (100 J/KG OR LESS)
WHICH GIVES A LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. OVERALL, SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. BY THE TIME RAIN COMES TO AN END
THURSDAY EVENING, HIGHEST RAIN TOTALS OF 1 TO 1.5 INCHES WILL
FAVOR THE EASTERN HALF OF MIDDLE TN.
DESPITE THE COLD FRONT'S PASSAGE, TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. HIGHS ON FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S WITH EVEN A FEW SPOTS REACHING 70 ON
SATURDAY. LOW RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST LATE SUNDAY AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE AREA.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 551 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2026
TAFS REFLECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD, BUT THE MAIN
ISSUE WILL BE INCREASING WINDS THIS MORNING. WINDS PREVAIL SW AT
5-10 KTS THROUGH AROUND NOON WITH INCREASING GUSTS THROUGHOUT THE
DAY, PERHAPS AS HIGH AS 25 KTS AT TIMES. BKN TO OVC CIRRUS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY.
A STRONG LLJ IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING WITH WINDS ~50
KTS AT 2K FT. THIS LED TO LLWS TO BE ADDED TO ALL TAF SITES. LLWS
SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH TOMORROW MORNING WHEN INCREASING LOW
CLOUDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED. ADDED SCT025 TO THE BNA TAF SINCE MVFR
CIGS COULD DEVELOP AFTER ~15Z TOMORROW WITH WARM ADVECTION AND
EVENTUAL RAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON (NEXT TAF CYCLES).
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 51 43 61 48 / 0 10 40 80
CLARKSVILLE 49 41 60 46 / 0 10 30 70
CROSSVILLE 46 37 53 46 / 0 10 50 80
COLUMBIA 51 40 60 50 / 0 10 40 80
COOKEVILLE 46 38 54 46 / 0 10 50 80
JAMESTOWN 45 37 53 44 / 0 10 50 80
LAWRENCEBURG 50 40 59 50 / 0 10 40 80
MURFREESBORO 50 41 59 49 / 0 10 40 80
WAVERLY 49 41 58 48 / 0 10 30 70
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...CLEMENTS
LONG TERM....CLEMENTS
AVIATION.....SIZEMORE
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