288
FXUS64 KOHX 061756
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1156 AM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1150 AM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
- SPRING-LIKE WARMTH CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
60S TO LOW 70S. NEW RECORD HIGHS POSSIBLE.
- HIGH RAIN CHANCES LATE THIS WEEK. HEAVY RAINFALL COULD CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
- LOW CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY, SO UPDATES SHOULD BE MONITORED
CLOSELY.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1150 AM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS PASSING WELL TO OUR NORTH TODAY. IT HAS
PRODUCED A BROAD WARM, MOIST ADVECTION PATTERN GIVING US
WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND A FEW SPRINKLES. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE
AWAY TONIGHT WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE, CLEARING, AND LIGHT
WINDS TAKING OVER. EXPERIENCE SAYS THIS IS A FAVORABLE SETUP FOR
AREAS OF FOG TONIGHT. SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE NOT VERY EXCITED
ABOUT WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG, BUT IT IS A POSSIBILITY WE WILL NEED
TO MONITOR TONIGHT FOR IMPACTS ON THE WEDNESDAY MORNING COMMUTE.
AFTER MORNING FOG LIFTS, WEDNESDAY WILL BE A VERY NICE, SPRING-
LIKE DAY. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BE JOINED BY A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE
RIDGE TO BRING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND MILD TEMPERATURES IN THE
60S. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.
THE HIGH CENTER WILL SLIDE EAST AND SOUTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, BUT WE WILL STAY DRY. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S. IT
MAY FEEL A LITTLE CHILLY, BUT KEEP IN MIND WEDNESDAY NIGHT'S LOWS
WILL BE NEAR OUR AVERAGE HIGHS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR!
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1150 AM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
ON THURSDAY, EXPECT NEAR RECORD-BREAKING HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
HIGH 60S TO LOW 70S, WITH THE DAY BEING MOSTLY PRECIPITATION-
FREE UNTIL A FEW LATE DAY SHOWERS MOVE INTO OUR NORTHWEST
COUNTIES. WE CAN EXPECT SOME HIGHER WINDS THAN USUAL WITH GUSTS UP
TO 30 MPH, SHORT OF ADVISORY CRITERIA. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
SWEEP ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON THURSDAY, BRINGING
WITH IT THE PREVIOUSLY NOTED WIND. IT WILL ALSO PROMPT WIDESPREAD
FORCING AND LIFT FOR STORMS AND RAIN FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY EVENING. THE WPC CURRENTLY PLACES OUR CWA IN A SLIGHT RISK
FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES INTO FRIDAY,
WHEN WE WILL SEE MOST OF OUR RAIN. PWATS ARE LOOKING TO BE VERY
HIGH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR (AROUND 1.25-1.5 INCHES), WHICH COULD
PROMPT SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING CONCERNS WITH THE MULTIPLE EXPECTED
BANDS OF RAIN AND STORMS. MODELS ARE SHOWING WIDESPREAD RAIN
TOTALS OF AROUND 2-3 INCHES BY MIDDAY SATURDAY, WITH A 40-60%
CHANCE OF EXCEEDING 2 INCHES (WITH THE EXCEPTION OF OUR
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES), AND A 30-40% CHANCE OF EXCEEDING 3 INCHES
IN OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. FURTHERMORE, THE SPC HAS INDICATED A
SEVERE WEATHER CHANCE IN THE WESTERN HALF OF OUR CWA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AS SHEAR AND INSTABILITY MAY BE SUFFICIENT
FOR MORE ORGANIZED DEVELOPMENT IN THOSE AREAS.
AFTER THE FRONT ROLLS THROUGH OUR AREA, EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE
CLOSER TO NORMAL AND FOR RAIN CHANCES TO BE MINIMAL. A REINFORCING
COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND, DRIVING TEMPERATURES
TO BE LOWER SUNDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES INCREASING STARTING MONDAY.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES STILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW INTO THE WORK WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1150 AM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
CIGS WILL STAY MVFR THROUGH AT LEAST 20Z WITH WEST TO EAST
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR AFTER 20Z. CSV IS LIKELY TO KEEP MVFR THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS WILL BE SSW WITH OCNL GUSTS NEAR
18KT THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAYTIME HOURS.
OVERNIGHT, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN AND WINDS WILL DROP
NEAR CALM. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR AREAS OF MIST/FOG. MOS GUIDANCE
AND HRRR MODEL ARE NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE WITH LOWERING VSBYS, BUT
THE OVERALL SETUP LOOKS FAVORABLE FOR AT LEAST POCKETS OF LIFR
ACROSS MIDDLE TN. TAFS WILL FEATURE PREVAILING MVFR BR AT ALL
SITES LATE TONIGHT WITH TEMPO GROUPS FOR LIFR AT ALL SITES EXCEPT
BNA. FOGGY SITES WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH A
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER AND LIGHT WINDS SITTING OVER THE AREA.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 68 46 64 47 / 10 0 0 10
CLARKSVILLE 66 41 62 47 / 0 0 0 10
CROSSVILLE 59 47 62 43 / 20 0 0 0
COLUMBIA 65 46 65 48 / 10 0 0 0
COOKEVILLE 61 46 61 44 / 20 0 0 0
JAMESTOWN 59 46 60 41 / 20 0 0 0
LAWRENCEBURG 64 47 65 49 / 10 0 0 0
MURFREESBORO 65 46 65 47 / 10 0 0 0
WAVERLY 64 43 63 48 / 0 0 0 10
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....DELCONTE
AVIATION.....13
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