356
FXUS64 KOHX 252334
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
634 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2026
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 630 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2026
- MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY
THIS WEEK. DRIER PATTERN NEXT WEEK.
- NEW RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1-3 INCHES WITH LOCALIZED GREATER
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED FROM TODAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
BRIEF, LOCALIZED FLOODING IS POSSIBLE WITH THE HEAVIER
DOWNPOURS.
- NO ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED, BUT A FEW STRONG STORMS
ARE POSSIBLE, MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE THE MAIN THREATS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2026
NO MAJOR CHANGE IN FORECAST EXPECTATIONS THROUGH TOMORROW. THE
UPPER-LEVEL LOW STALLED TO OUR SOUTHWEST WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE
LIFT AND A CORRIDOR OF MOISTURE FOR RAIN/RAIN SHOWERS TO
OVERSPREAD MIDDLE TENNESSEE TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. VERY
LITTLE LIGHTING/THUNDER IS EXPECTED BUT BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE
POSSIBLE AT TIMES.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1120 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2026
THE WET SHOWERY PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MIDDLE TN AND
SURROUNDING AREAS. A MOIST AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO PROMOTE LOCAL
HEAVY DOWNPOURS. LIFT WILL BE PROVIDED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS OUT TO OUR WEST WITH A WEAK LOW LEVEL TROUGH / FRONTAL ZONE
DIRECTLY OVER THE AREA. POOR LAPSE RATES AND LOW SHEAR WILL KEEP
STORMS WELL-BEHAVED IN TERMS OF SEVERITY, BUT HEAVY DOWNPOURS
WILL BE A CONCERN FOR BRIEF LOCAL FLOODING.
WE ARE HOLDING OFF ON A FLOOD WATCH AT THE MOMENT, BUT THAT COULD
CHANGE BASED ON COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES. SINCE
RAIN STARTED LAST WEEK, OUR EASTERN AREAS ALONG AND NEAR THE
PLATEAU HAVE HAD THE HEAVIER, MORE WIDESPREAD TOTALS IN THE 3 TO 5
INCH RANGE WITH LOCAL 6" AMOUNTS. IF A SOLID AREAS OF RAIN SETS
UP THERE, WE MAY NEED A WATCH. BUT IN THIS REGIME, LOCALIZED
FLOODING COULD DEVELOP ANYWHERE SINCE RAINFALL RATE WOULD BE THE
MAIN CULPRIT RATHER THAN MULTI-DAY TOTALS. REGARDLESS, WE DO NOT
EXPECT WIDESPREAD FLOODING.
THE FRONTAL ZONE WILL LIFT NORTHWARD TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS
THE MID/UPPER LOW TO OUR WEST CUTS OFF AND DRIFTS WESTWARD. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A COUPLE OF SOMEWHAT CONCENTRATED WAVES OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS THROUGH TUESDAY, THEN A MORE RANDOM, SCATTERED REGIME
BY WEDNESDAY.
OTHERWISE, THE WARM, MUGGY AIR WILL REMAIN WITH DEW POINTS
HOLDING IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. LIKE LAST NIGHT, THIS WILL BRING
SOME OVERNIGHT FOG WHERE CLOUDS DEVELOP SOME BREAKS.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1120 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2026
MIDDLE TENNESSEE WILL SEE CONTINUED RAIN CHANCES MID TO LATE WEEK
AS A TROPICAL AIRMASS REMAINS SITUATED ACROSS THE REGION. BEST
CHANCES WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHEN INSTABILITY
INCREASES DIURNALLY. MEDIUM-RANGE GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A COLD FRONT
MOVING INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK PROMISING A DRIER, SUNNIER
PATTERN FOR NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2026
MIDDLE TENNESSEE TERMINALS REMAIN VFR CURRENTLY WITH A LIGHT E
WIND AND INCREASING LOW TO MID-LEVEL CLOUDS. A SYSTEM TO THE
SOUTHWEST WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR INCREASING MOISTURE AND -RA/SHRA
OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING WITH MVFR/IFR FLIGHT CATS AT ALL
SITES. CKV AND MQY HAVE ALREADY SEEN -RA AT THIS TIME. TAFS
GENERALLY REFLECT DETERIORATING CONDITIONS & IFR VIS/CIG
OVERNIGHT WITH IMPROVEMENT BACK TO MVFR TOMORROW MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON WITH S WINDS 5-10 KTS. NO TS MENTIONED IN TAFS AT THIS
TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 65 81 66 83 / 80 90 50 90
CLARKSVILLE 65 79 66 83 / 80 90 50 80
CROSSVILLE 62 75 63 77 / 80 70 60 90
COLUMBIA 64 81 65 83 / 80 70 60 80
COOKEVILLE 64 78 64 80 / 80 70 60 90
JAMESTOWN 61 77 62 79 / 80 70 60 100
LAWRENCEBURG 64 79 66 81 / 80 70 60 80
MURFREESBORO 65 81 66 83 / 80 70 60 90
WAVERLY 65 81 66 83 / 80 90 60 70
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE.......SIZEMORE
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION.....SIZEMORE
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