254
FXUS64 KOHX 171119
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
619 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 613 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2026
- HIGH CHANCE FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH
A LOW CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL ARE THE MAIN THREATS.
- DRY CONDITIONS RETURN FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY, BUT RAIN
AND STORM CHANCES INCREASE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1030 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2026
THE SEASONALLY PLEASANT CONDITIONS WE HAVE ENJOYED THE PAST COUPLE
OF DAYS WILL SLIP AWAY WEDNESDAY AS HEAT AND HUMIDITY CREEP
HIGHER. BACKING UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH INCREASINGLY GUSTY SOUTH
SURFACE WINDS WILL BRING THESE CHANGES. ACTIVE WX SYSTEMS WILL
IMPACT AREAS WELL TO OUR NORTH AND SOUTH AS WE STAY DRY ONE MORE
DAY. THE NORTHERN SYSTEM WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE FOR SEVERE
STORMS ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY AND OHIO VALLEY WHILE THE SOUTHERN
SYSTEM BRINGS HEAVY TROPICAL RAINFALL ALONG THE WESTERN GULF
COAST.
THESE SYSTEMS WILL EVENTUALLY PUT THE SQUEEZE ON MIDDLE TN
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS A TRAILING FRONT FROM THE NORTHERN SYSTEM
PUSHES INTO THE TROPICAL AIR MASS OOZING UP FROM THE SOUTH. THIS
WILL BRING HIGH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS, THE FORECAST HAS CHANGED IN SOME
SIGNIFICANT WAYS. AREAL AVERAGE RAINFALL HAS DROPPED CONSIDERABLY
WITH LATEST MODELS SHOWING LESS THAN HALF THE RAINFALL THEY
SHOWED 24 HOURS AGO. BUT, WITH LESS RAIN COVERAGE, THE DOOR HAS
OPENED FOR MORE INSTABILITY AND A NOTABLE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS
WITH GUSTY WINDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. UNFORTUNATELY, WE
CANNOT LET OUR GUARD DOWN FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED
FLOODING. ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD TOTALS HAVE TRENDED LOWER, THE
MOISTURE LADED ATMOSPHERE COMBINED WITH POTENTIALLY VIGOROUS DEEP
CONVECTION COULD BRING VERY HEAVY LOCALIZED TOTALS, RESULTING IN
BRIEF FLASH FLOODING. TO CLARIFY, THIS DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A
WIDESPREAD FLOOD THREAT AT THIS TIME, BUT WE ARE UNDER A WPC
SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1030 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2026
RAIN AND SCATTERED STORM CHANCES WILL PERSIST INTO FRIDAY AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT, LIKELY PASSING EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. DRIER
AIR WILL MOVE IN FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. ANOTHER TREND
ON THE MODELS HAS BEEN A FASTER TRANSITION INTO AN ACTIVE PATTERN
NEXT WEEK. SO, RATHER THAN AN ENTIRELY DRY WEEKEND, WE MAY BE
DEALING WITH A RETURN OF SHOWERS AND STORMS BY SUNDAY. OVERALL,
THE PATTERN FOR NEXT WEEK LOOKS UNSETTLED WITH A SERIES OF
DISTURBANCES BRINGING ON AND OFF CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.
OTHERWISE, TYPICAL JUNE WARMTH AND HUMIDITY CAN BE EXPECTED.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 613 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2026
PATCHY FOG AND LOW STRATUS THIS MORNING IS RESULTING IN LIFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN, INCLUDING SRB.
THIS WILL IMPROVE THROUGH 13Z TO 14Z, LEAVING BEHIND VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN BY LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON WITH
GUSTS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS THAT WILL LIKELY PERSIST OVERNIGHT. MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON, BUT MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
OVERNIGHT AND INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 91 76 89 69 / 0 10 80 80
CLARKSVILLE 90 75 88 67 / 0 20 70 60
CROSSVILLE 84 70 81 65 / 0 10 80 80
COLUMBIA 90 74 87 69 / 0 10 80 70
COOKEVILLE 86 72 83 67 / 0 10 90 80
JAMESTOWN 86 71 83 64 / 0 10 90 80
LAWRENCEBURG 87 73 84 68 / 0 20 80 70
MURFREESBORO 90 75 88 69 / 0 10 90 70
WAVERLY 89 74 87 67 / 0 10 80 70
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION.....CLEMENTS
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