207
FXUS64 KOHX 251117
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
617 AM CDT SAT JUL 25 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 609 AM CDT SAT JUL 25 2026
- MEDIUM TO HIGH RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. NO
SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED, BUT THERE IS A LOW FLOOD THREAT.
- HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL RESUME NEXT WEEK WITH LOW RAIN
AND STORM CHANCES.
- HEAT INDICES IN THE LOW 100S ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
IN MANY LOCATIONS WEST OF THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1039 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2026
A LINE OF VERY LIGHT ECHOES IS INCHING ITS WAY ACROSS THE
CUMBERLAND PLATEAU WHILE THE REMAINDER OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE REMAINS
ECHO-FREE. THE HRRR DOES SHOW SOME REDEVELOPMENT DURING THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD, BUT WE DON'T EXPECT THE OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY TO
WIDESPREAD OR PARTICULARLY ONEROUS. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BECOME
A LITTLE MORE ACTIVE TOMORROW AS AN UPPER TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS THE
REGION, BUT THE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS REMAINS VERY LOW. THERE IS A
MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL, BUT THIS WOULD ONLY OCCUR
IN ISOLATED SPOTS IMPACTED BY HEAVIER CELLS. OVERALL, THIS APPEARS
TO BE A LOW-IMPACT EVENT, WITH MOST AREAS LOOKING QPFS OF 1/4" OR
LESS THROUGHOUT THIS EVENT. MEANWHILE, PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
CONTINUE TO CLIMB, HAVING REACHED 1.68" ON THE EVENING SOUNDING
FROM OHX, BUT STILL A FAR CRY FROM THE 2+ INCHES WE WERE SEEING
EARLIER IN THE WEEK. ONCE THIS ONCOMING ACTIVE WEATHER SYSTEM
EXITS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT, LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM UP
QUICKLY. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WE CAN EXPECT HEAT INDICES IN THE
LOW 100S MANY AREAS WEST OF THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1039 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2026
TUESDAY WILL LIKELY BE OUR WARMEST DAY, AS AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
REACH THE MID TO UPPER 90S AND HEAT INDICES PEAK AT 105+ IN MANY
AREAS. THUS, IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT A HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE
NEEDED FOR TUESDAY, AND TUESDAY ONLY. AT THIS TIME, THE
ATMOSPHERIC MODELS ARE BRINGING A SURFACE BOUNDARY THROUGH THE MID
STATE LATE TUESDAY THAT WOULD BRINGING NOMINALLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES, AND ALSO LOWER HUMIDITY. IT ALSO APPEARS THAT THE
FROPA WOULD BE A DRY ONE EXCEPT FOR A SPOTTY SHOWER OR TWO. IN
FACT, AFTER SATURDAY NIGHT, OUR RAIN AND STORM CHANCES FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE 7-DAY FORECAST PERIOD LOOK TO BE NEGLIGIBLE.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 609 AM CDT SAT JUL 25 2026
SHOWERS ARE MOVING THROUGH MIDDLE TN EARLY THIS MORNING WHERE THEY
ARE PRODUCING MVFR VISIBILITIES IS SOME SPOTS. SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING, AND THEN THERE IS A LOW CHANCE
FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS TO IMPACT THE TERMINALS. PROB30
GROUPS HAVE BEEN MAINTAINED FOR THIS. ONCE ACTIVITY DIMINISHES
LATE THIS EVENING, FOG LOOKS TO DEVELOP TONIGHT AFTER 06Z. HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE IN DENSE FOG IS ACROSS THE PLATEAU, INCLUDING AT SRB
AND CSV, BUT ALL TERMINALS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY DUE TO
TODAY'S RAIN AND LIGHT OVERNIGHT WINDS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 87 73 91 74 / 40 40 10 0
CLARKSVILLE 87 72 92 73 / 30 40 10 0
CROSSVILLE 82 67 85 67 / 30 50 20 0
COLUMBIA 86 72 91 71 / 60 50 20 0
COOKEVILLE 83 69 86 69 / 30 50 20 0
JAMESTOWN 82 67 85 68 / 30 50 20 0
LAWRENCEBURG 85 71 88 70 / 60 60 20 0
MURFREESBORO 87 72 91 71 / 40 50 20 0
WAVERLY 86 72 91 71 / 60 40 20 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM....ROSE
AVIATION.....CLEMENTS
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