435
FXUS64 KOHX 040032
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
732 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2026
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 728 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2026
- MAJOR TO EXTREME HEAT RISK THROUGH THIS WEEK WITH HEAT INDEX
VALUES IN THE TRIPLE DIGITS. A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR ALL COUNTIES THROUGH FRIDAY.
- LOW CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH NEXT
WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 728 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2026
IT WAS ANOTHER HOT DAY WITH TEMPERATURES PEAKING IN THE MID 90S TO
LOW 100S. WE HIT 100 AT BNA, AND 95 AT CSV (WHICH TIED THE RECORD
HIGH). SOUNDING DATA SHOWS PWS REMAIN OVER 1.9" WITH MLCAPE OF
ALMOST 2,000 J/KG. THIS WAS ENOUGH TO GET ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
COUPLE THUNDERSTORMS GOING LATE THIS AFTERNOON, BUT ACTIVITY HAS
RECENTLY DIMINISHED AT SUNSET. LOOK FOR ANOTHER HOT DAY TOMORROW
WITH ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS & THUNDERSTORMS. ANY STORM COULD
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS DUE TO DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT WITHIN THE
PERSISTING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1143 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2026
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS PERSIST TODAY AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE SOUTHEAST. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL
ONCE AGAIN REACH INTO THE TRIPLE DIGITS THIS AFTERNOON, RANGING
BETWEEN 105 AND 109. A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH
TOMORROW AS THE UPPER RIDGE WILL MAKE LITTLE PROGRESS OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. TRY TO MINIMIZE YOUR TIME OUTSIDE DURING PEAK
HEATING HOURS, AND IF YOU HAVE TO BE OUTSIDE, TAKE FREQUENT
BREAKS, WEAR LIGHT CLOTHING AND STAY HYDRATED! FOR THE REST OF
THIS AFTERNOON, MOST WILL STAY DRY, BUT THERE IS A LOW 20% CHANCE
FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. SHOULD
SOMETHING DEVELOP, THE PRIMARY CONCERN WOULD BE HEAVY RAIN GIVEN
CLIMATOLOGICALLY HIGH PWAT VALUES NEAR 2". FRIDAY WILL BE VERY
MUCH THE SAME WITH CONTINUED HEAT AND LOW SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES DURING THE AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL STAY WARM, TOO,
WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY DROPPING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1143 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2026
HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO PULL BACK TO THE WEST THIS WEEKEND,
OPENING THE DOOR FOR A LITTLE BETTER FORCING TO MOVE THROUGH,
PROMOTING SLIGHTLY HIGHER RAIN/STORM CHANCES. TENNESSEE WILL BE
FIXED BETWEEN THE RIDGE TO THE WEST AND A DEEPENING LOW OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST THAT WILL SPIN A SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE CWA. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DEVELOP OUT OF AHEAD OF
THIS WAVE THAT WILL BRING SLIGHTLY HIGHER RAIN/STORM CHANCES TO
THE AREA DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. STORM EVOLUTION AND TIMING
REMAIN UNCERTAIN AS MODELS DEPICT VARYING SOLUTIONS. SOME
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A WEAKENING MCS WILL RIDE THE
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE, CLIPPING OUR NORTHEAST COUNTIES. OTHERS
SHOW A MORE UNORGANIZED DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT. THESE DETAILS WILL HOPEFULLY BE WORKED OUT IN
FUTURE RUNS, BUT REGARDLESS, THE SEVERE THREAT AT THIS TIME
APPEARS LOW AS BULK SHEAR AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE ON THE
LOWER SIDE. HOWEVER THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY AND
MOISTURE, SO A FEW STRONG TO MAYBE SEVERE STORMS COULD BE
POSSIBLE. ONCE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH, WE WILL SEE A VERY SLIGHT
DROP IN TEMPERATURES SUNDAY, BUT IT'S STILL GOING TO BE HOT.
FORTUNATELY, NORTHERLY WINDS WILL FILTER IN DRIER AIR, SO THOUGH
IT WILL BE HOT, IT WON'T BE NOWHERE NEAR AS HUMID. FOR THE BULK OF
NEXT WEEK, WE WILL REMAIN IN A STAGNANT PATTERN WHERE WE'LL HAVE
HEAT, HUMIDITY, AND DAILY LOW CHANCES FOR DIURNALLY-DRIVEN
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE 90S WITH FEEL-LIKE
TEMPERATURES NEAR 100 DEGREES.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 616 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2026
TAFS ARE VFR WITH THE EXCEPTION OF POSSIBLE RADIATION FOG AT KSRB
DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. WE'VE ACTUALLY SEEN A FEW SHOWERS POP
UP ON RADAR THIS AFTERNOON, AND WE EXPECT THE SAME TO HAPPEN
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, POPS ARE TOO LOW TO WARRANT
MENTION IN ANY OF THE TAFS. WITH HIGH PRESSURE STILL MORE OR LESS
ON TOP OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE, WINDS WILL BE LIGHT/CALM THRU THE TAF
PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 76 98 77 97 / 10 20 10 20
CLARKSVILLE 75 98 75 98 / 10 10 0 10
CROSSVILLE 72 93 71 91 / 10 20 0 20
COLUMBIA 74 99 74 99 / 10 20 0 20
COOKEVILLE 74 96 73 94 / 10 20 0 20
JAMESTOWN 73 93 73 91 / 0 20 0 30
LAWRENCEBURG 74 97 73 97 / 10 20 0 20
MURFREESBORO 75 100 74 99 / 10 20 10 20
WAVERLY 76 98 76 98 / 0 20 0 10
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR TNZ005>011-023>034-
056>066-075-077>080-093>095.
UPDATE.......SIZEMORE
SHORT TERM...BAGGETT
LONG TERM....BAGGETT
AVIATION.....ROSE
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