806
FXUS64 KOHX 211728
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1228 PM CDT TUE JUL 21 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1228 PM CDT TUE JUL 21 2026
- A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN PLACE TODAY FOR HEAT INDEX TEMPERATURES
REACHING 105+ DEGREES DURING THE AFTERNOON.
- THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER LATE THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT. MAIN IMPACTS ARE DAMAGING WINDS AND FLASH
FLOODING.
- COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARRIVE WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1113 AM CDT TUE JUL 21 2026
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WITH
TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 90 DEGREES AND DEW POINTS IN THE MID AND
UPPER 70S. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 90S WHICH WILL MAKE
IT FEEL OPPRESSIVE THIS AFTERNOON WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES UP TO 110
TO EVEN 115 DEGREES. A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN PLACE UNTIL 8 PM.
THE HEAT IS THE FIRST COURSE OF HAZARDOUS WEATHER TODAY. A SURFACE
FRONT IS MOVING SOUTH THROUGH MISSOURI INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS THIS
MORNING AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW. THE
COMBINATION OF LIFT AND THE AMPLE INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE AT THE
SURFACE WILL ALLOW STORMS TO FIRE ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA AND OHIO
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. SOME ACTIVITY IS ALREADY BUBBLING
ACROSS OUR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES AND SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS CAN'T BE
RULED OUT THIS AFTERNOON, BUT THE MAIN SEVERE CONCERN WILL BE WITH
THE ACTIVITY COMING OUT OF KENTUCKY THIS EVENING AS BULK SHEAR
INCREASES. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN SEVERE STORM THREAT THIS
EVENING AND INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH A VERY LOW RISK OF A
TORNADO ALONG THE TN/KY STATE LINE. INSTABILITY AND STORM
ORGANIZATION WILL DECREASE THE FURTHER STORMS MOVE SOUTH AND THE
DEEPER WE GET INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE WINDOW OF GREATEST
SEVERE POTENTIAL LOOKS LIKE 7 PM TO AROUND 1 AM.
IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE THREAT, SOME INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING
WILL BE A THREAT. PWAT VALUES ARE AROUND 1.9-2" ACROSS MIDDLE
TENNESSEE, SO VERY HIGH RAIN RATES CAN BE EXPECTED WITH STORMS
TODAY AND TONIGHT. HREF AND ASSOCIATED CAMS SHOW POCKETS OF 2" OF
RAIN WITH 90TH PERCENTILE VALUES SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR OVER 4"
IN ISOLATED AREAS. WITH THE WET JULY WE'VE HAD SO FAR, THIS WOULD
BE SUFFICIENT FOR FLASH FLOODING IN THOSE AREAS. THE HREF SHOWS
THE HIGHER PROBABILITIES OF OVER 2" AND HIGHER 90TH PERCENTILE
VALUES ALONG AND EAST OF I-65. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH
12Z WEDNESDAY.
BY 12Z WEDNESDAY, THE SURFACE FRONT WILL BE DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA
FROM SW TO NE. SOUTH OF THE SURFACE FRONT, ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ALONG THE PLATEAU.
SHEAR WILL BE LOWER THAN TONIGHT, SO I DON'T EXPECT ANY SEVERE
ACTIVITY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. BEHIND THE FRONT, LOWER DEW POINTS
WILL FILTER IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE SURFACE FRONT WILL BE THROUGH THE ENTIRE AREA
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL USHER IN A VERY PLEASANT NIGHT WITH
LOW DROPPING INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1113 AM CDT TUE JUL 21 2026
TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD, WE WILL BE IN THE NICEST AIRMASS
WE'VE HAD SO FAR THIS SUMMER. DEW POINTS ON THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE
LOW TO MID 60S WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. FRIDAY WILL BE
SIMILAR BUT A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER. A SHORTWAVE WILL RIDE NORTHWEST
UPPER FLOW AND APPROACH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WHICH
WILL REINTRODUCE SOME LOW TO MEDIUM RAIN CHANCES. TEMPERATURES WILL
CREEP UP OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A COUPLE MORE
SHORTWAVES BRINGING ADDITIONAL STORM STORMS CHANCES GOING INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY OF HOW FAR EAST RIDGING
INFLUENCES PUSHES WHICH WILL AFFECT OUR RAIN CHANCES AND
TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT TUE JUL 21 2026
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS
A LINE OF TSRA APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. STORMS WILL BEGIN TO SET
IN AT 00Z AND CONTINUE THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY. SRB AND CSV WILL SEE
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL TURN
NORTHERLY AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY WHEN THE COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH,
AT WHICH TIME CEILINGS SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE AT ALL WESTERN TAF
SITES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 73 87 65 83 / 80 10 0 0
CLARKSVILLE 70 86 62 83 / 50 0 0 0
CROSSVILLE 69 82 60 80 / 80 60 30 20
COLUMBIA 73 88 65 84 / 80 20 0 0
COOKEVILLE 71 84 63 81 / 80 30 10 0
JAMESTOWN 69 82 60 80 / 90 40 10 0
LAWRENCEBURG 73 86 65 83 / 70 30 10 10
MURFREESBORO 73 88 65 84 / 70 20 0 0
WAVERLY 71 86 63 83 / 70 0 0 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TNZ005>011-023>034-
056>066-075-077>080-093>095.
FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR TNZ008>011-024>034-056>066-075-077-078-080-093>095.
SHORT TERM...REAGAN
LONG TERM....REAGAN
AVIATION.....HOLLEY
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