421
FXUS64 KOHX 132327
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
627 PM CDT FRI MAR 13 2026
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 620 PM CDT FRI MAR 13 2026
- HIGH CHANCE FOR NON-THUNDERSTORM WINDS OF 40-45 MPH SUNDAY.
- A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED SUNDAY EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY CAUSE SIGNIFICANT WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 70 MPH. THE TORNADO THREAT IS LOW.
- TEMPERATURES WILL FALL SHARPLY ON MONDAY WITH A LOW SNOW CHANCE
THAT MORNING. TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER-
TEENS TO LOW-20S.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 620 PM CDT FRI MAR 13 2026
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WERE MADE THIS EVENING. SOUTHWEST
WINDS HAVE BEEN GUSTY TODAY, AND ARE STILL GUSTY AT AROUND 15-20
MPH AT THIS HOUR. DO EXPECT THIS WIND GUSTS TO TAPER OFF AFTER
SUNSET, AND THEN A QUIET NIGHT IS AHEAD WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING
INTO THE UPPER-30S TO LOW-40S. GORGEOUS WEATHER IS ON TAP FOR
SATURDAY WITH PLENTY OF SUN, LIGHTER WINDS, AND HIGHS IN THE
UPPER-60S TO LOW-70S.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1012 AM CDT FRI MAR 13 2026
A SURFACE BOUNDARY IS APPROACHING MIDDLE TENNESSEE FROM THE
NORTHWEST, WHICH IS CREATING A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT, HENCE THE
INCREASED WINDS THAT WE'RE EXPERIENCING TODAY. THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY WILL COME THROUGH OUR AREA TONIGHT, BUT WE DO NOT EXPECT
ANY ACTIVE WEATHER, NOR ANY REAL CHANGE IN AIR MASS. INDEED,
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL BE EVEN WARMER THAN TODAY'S. SO
SPRING-LIKE WEATHER IS DEFINITELY BACK ON FOLLOWING OUR RECENT
BRIEF COLD SNAP (BUT NOT FOR TOO LONG).
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1012 AM CDT FRI MAR 13 2026
SUNDAY IS LOOKING TO BE INCREASINGLY VOLATILE. A STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH MIDDLE TENNESSEE FROM THE WEST DURING THE DAY. THIS
IS A DEEP SYSTEM, WITH A SHARP PRESSURE GRADIENT AT THE SURFACE
AND A SHARP HEIGHT GRADIENT ALOFT. SO WE EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE
CONSIDERABLY DURING THE DAY TO THE POINT THAT A WIND ADVISORY IS
LOOKING INCREASINGLY LIKELY. FROM 12Z SUNDAY UNTIL 06Z MONDAY, WE
ARE GOING WITH THE NBM 90TH PERCENTILE FOR SURFACE WINDS AND WIND
GUSTS, WHICH GETS US UP TO WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. (THE 50TH
PERCENTILE VALUES WERE UNREALISTICALLY LOW GIVEN THE STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT PRECEDING THE COLD FRONT.) THERE WILL BE A
SIGNIFICANT WIND THREAT WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP SUNDAY NIGHT.
WE EXPECT STRONG LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. FOR
EXAMPLE, THE NAM FORECAST SOUNDING FOR BNA VALID AT 03Z MONDAY
(10 P.M. SUNDAY EVENING) GIVES US A 0-3 KM HELICITY VALUE OF 566.
HOWEVER, THE SAME SOUNDING ALSO SHOWS A CAPPING INVERSION JUST
ABOVE 800 MB THAT WILL GREATLY LIMIT OUR INSTABILITY. IF THIS WERE
TO ACTUALLY PLAY OUT, IT WOULD MEAN THAT SUNDAY NIGHT'S CONVECTION
WOULD BE ELEVATED, WITH ANY ORGANIZED STORMS DEVELOPING BEHIND THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY, WHICH WOULD ALSO TRANSLATE TO A STABLE,
SURFACE-BASED LAYER, WHICH WOULD LIMIT (BUT NOT ELIMINATE) THE
SEVERE POTENTIAL. SO THESE ARE THE ELEMENTS THAT WE WILL HAVE TO
PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO AS THE SUNDAY EVENING TIME FRAME COMES MORE
INTO FOCUS. LOOKING BEYOND, THE TEMPERATURE DROP BEHIND THIS COLD
FRONT IS GOING TO BE DRAMATIC. WHILE SUNDAY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM INTO THE 70S ACROSS MOST OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE, WE'LL BE
IN THE 30S BY MONDAY MORNING, AND TEMPERATURES TUESDAY MORNING
LOOK TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S, FOR A TOTAL DROP
OF 50-55 DEGREES. IN ADDITION, AS THE OCCLUDED FRONT COMES
THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY, THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF
LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES, WITH SMALL ACCUMULATIONS (LESS THAN 1/2")
POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 606 PM CDT FRI MAR 13 2026
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH PASSING HIGH CLOUDS AT
TIMES. BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME 7 KNOTS OR LESS OVER
THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. WINDS WILL SHIFT SOUTH AFTER 15Z UP TO 9
KNOTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 43 74 56 78 / 0 0 0 10
CLARKSVILLE 40 72 55 78 / 0 0 0 10
CROSSVILLE 38 67 51 69 / 0 0 0 10
COLUMBIA 40 73 54 77 / 0 0 0 10
COOKEVILLE 40 70 54 72 / 0 0 0 10
JAMESTOWN 38 68 51 72 / 0 0 0 0
LAWRENCEBURG 40 73 54 76 / 0 0 0 10
MURFREESBORO 40 73 54 77 / 0 0 0 10
WAVERLY 43 73 56 77 / 0 0 0 10
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE.......CLEMENTS
SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM....ROSE
AVIATION.....MUELLER
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