056
FXUS64 KOHX 142345
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
645 PM CDT SAT MAR 14 2026
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 625 PM CDT SAT MAR 14 2026
- NON-THUNDERSTORM WINDS UP TO 40 MPH EXPECTED SUNDAY.
- A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED SUNDAY EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS,
SOME EXCEEDING 75 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM TORNADO THREAT.
- TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET MONDAY, ALLOWING FOR LIGHT SNOW THAT
MORNING & MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF LESS THAN 1/2". TEMPERATURES
MONDAY NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER-TEENS TO LOW-20S.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT SAT MAR 14 2026
WHAT A BEAUTIFUL SPRINGLIKE DAY IT WAS WITH THE HIGH AT NASHVILLE
COMING IN AT 77. THESE MILD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO
TONIGHT WITH LOWS ONLY FALLING INTO THE 50S. HOPEFULLY YOU WERE
ABLE TO ENJOY IT BECAUSE A MAJOR PATTERN CHANGE IS COMING.
THE STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL IMPACT US TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT
IS STARTING TO TAKE SHAPE TO OUR WEST AND WILL CONTINUE TO
STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO FORECAST
THINKING AS WHAT IS DESCRIBED BELOW. BE PREPARED FOR WINDY
CONDITIONS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS NON-THUNDERSTORM WINDS STRENGTHEN
TO NEAR 40 MPH AHEAD OF THE MAIN EVENT. THEN A LINE OF STORMS WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TOMORROW EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. LATEST CAM
RUNS SUGGEST THAT THIS LINE WILL BE NEARING THE TN RIVER BETWEEN
6PM AND 7PM AND EXITING THE AREA BETWEEN 2AM AND 3AM. THE PRIMARY
THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS, SOME IN EXCESS OF 75 MPH. THE
TORNADO THREAT HAS INCREASED, PARTICULARLY FOR AREAS NEAR THE TN
RIVER AND THE I-65 CORRIDOR.
WITH THIS BEING A NIGHTTIME EVENT, TAKE THE TIME NOW TO KNOW HOW
YOU WILL GET YOUR WARNINGS THAT WILL WAKE YOU UP. ALSO, DON'T GET
HUNG UP ON THE TORNADO THREAT TO THE POINT WHERE YOU ARE IGNORING
THE WIND THREAT. DAMAGING WINDS LIKE THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE THE
CAPABILITY OF PRODUCING CAN STILL CAUSE SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1034 AM CDT SAT MAR 14 2026
WE ARE ENJOYING SPRINGLIKE WEATHER ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE TODAY,
WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING UP NICELY ALONG WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE. SURFACE WINDS ARE IN THE PROCESS OF SHIFTING TO THE
SOUTH, SO TONIGHT'S LOWS WON'T BE NEARLY AS CHILLY AS THOSE WE
HAVE AWAKENED TO THE PAST FEW MORNINGS. TOMORROW'S TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY'S, BUT WE WILL ALSO BE CLOUDIER AND MUCH
WINDIER. WE HAVE GONE AHEAD AN DONE THE INEVITABLE BY ISSUING A
WIND ADVISORY FOR ALL OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. LIKE YESTERDAY, THE NBM 50TH PERCENTILE WINDS AND
WIND GUSTS WERE NOT REPRESENTATIVE OF THE TYPE OF ENVIRONMENT WE
ARE EXPECTING, SO WE REPLACED THOSE WITH THE 90TH PERCENTILE
GRIDS DURING THE PERIOD COVERED BY THE ADVISORY. IT'S SAFE TO SAY
THAT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WILL BE COMMON, ALONG WITH
GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1034 AM CDT SAT MAR 14 2026
A STRONG COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH WILL IMPACT MIDDLE TENNESSEE
TOMORROW EVENING AND POSSIBLY INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS A
LINE OF STORMS DEVELOPS RIGHT ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AT THIS
TIME, IT APPEARS THAT THE LINE OF STORMS WILL ENTER THE MID STATE
SHORTLY AFTER 7 P.M. AND SHOULD BE EAST OF THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU
BY 2 A.M. LOOKING AT THE 12Z HRRR FORECAST SOUNDINGS, WE CAN
CONCLUDE THAT THE HIGHEST RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE NEAR THE
TENNESSEE RIVER, WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATEST. DUE TO THE
NIGHTTIME NATURE OF THIS EVENT, UPDRAFT STRENGTHS WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKEN AS THE LINE OF CONVECTION MOVES EASTWARD AND WE FIND
OURSELVES FARTHER REMOVED FROM DAYTIME HEATING. SO THE SEVERE
THREAT WILL SIMILARLY LESSEN TO SOME EXTENT AS WE GET DEEPER INTO
THE EVENING. BUT WE DON'T WANT TO LOSE SIGHT OF THE FACT THAT
THERE IS A SEVERE WIND THREAT FOR ALL OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE (EITHER
A 2 OR 3 OUT OF 5), AS THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE HIGHLY-SHEARED
ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. (HIGHLY-SHEARED, LOW-CAPE ENVIRONMENTS
CAN STILL PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES, ESPECIALLY WHEN
STORMS INTERACT WITH A STRONG SURFACE BOUNDARY.) SO WE DON'T WANT
TO LET OUR GUARD DOWN UNTIL THE SURFACE BOUNDARY PASSES
COMPLETELY THROUGH MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND TAKES THE STORMS WITH IT.
AFTER THAT, OUR ATTENTION WILL TURN TO A RAPID TEMPERATURE DROP
AND THE POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT SNOW FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY. AT THIS TIME, IT APPEARS THAT SEVERAL AREAS MIGHT "ENJOY"
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS (LESS THAN 1/2"), HOWEVER, A FEW SPOTS
ALONG THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU COULD GET CLOSE TO 1". TUESDAY
MORNING WILL BE THE COLDEST, WITH TEMPERATURES SETTLING INTO THE
UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S ACROSS THE BULK OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE, WHICH
REPRESENTS A DROP OF 50-55 DEGREES FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON'S
FORECAST HIGHS. TEMPERATURES THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK WILL SOON
WARM BACK TO MORE SPRING-LIKE READINGS. AND AFTER MONDAY, THERE
ARE NO PRECIPITATION CHANCES AT LEAST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 615 PM CDT SAT MAR 14 2026
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. PASSING HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT WITH INCREASING LOW TO MID-LEVEL CLOUDS TOMORROW
MORNING. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR 19040KT DEVELOPS AFTER 05Z WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS UP TO 8 KNOTS AT THE SURFACE. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
DIMINISHES AFTER 13Z BUT THEN WE WILL SEE GUSTY SURFACE WINDS
WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MOVE IN
AFTER THE TAF PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 56 77 34 41 / 0 10 100 30
CLARKSVILLE 56 76 31 39 / 0 20 100 20
CROSSVILLE 51 68 30 40 / 0 0 100 50
COLUMBIA 54 76 32 40 / 0 10 100 20
COOKEVILLE 54 71 32 39 / 0 0 100 40
JAMESTOWN 51 70 30 39 / 0 0 100 40
LAWRENCEBURG 55 74 32 40 / 0 10 100 20
MURFREESBORO 55 76 34 40 / 0 10 100 30
WAVERLY 57 75 30 38 / 0 20 100 20
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 1 AM CDT MONDAY FOR TNZ005>011-
023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095.
UPDATE.......CLEMENTS
SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM....ROSE
AVIATION.....MUELLER
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