948
FXUS64 KOHX 181104
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
604 AM CDT SAT JUL 18 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 600 AM CDT SAT JUL 18 2026
- DAILY ROUNDS OF STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HEAVY
RAIN RESULTING IN FLASH-FLOODING IS GOING TO BE THE MAIN IMPACT,
ALTHOUGH SOME STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.
- HEAT INDICES WILL REACH THE LOW 100S WEST OF THE CUMBERLAND
PLATEAU INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TUESDAY WILL BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF
THE PERIOD WITH HEAT INDICES NEARING OR EXCEEDING 105 DEGREES.
- SLIGHTLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR IS EXPECTED FROM WEDNESDAY
ONWARD.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1053 PM CDT FRI JUL 17 2026
EARLIER CONVECTION HAS MOSTLY VANISHED AND ALL FLASH FLOOD
WARNINGS HAVE EITHER EXPIRED OR BEEN CANCELED. HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS THE DOMINANT FEATURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT, BUT WE'LL
START TO SEE THE HIGH PRESSURE BREAK DOWN DURING THE WEEKEND AS A
WEAK SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO DEVELOP ALOFT AND A SURFACE BOUNDARY SLIPS
THROUGH THE REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY. IN THE
MEANTIME, THE AIR MASS ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE REMAINS UNCHANGED:
HIGHLY UNSTABLE WITH NEAR-RECORD PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES, BUT
WEAKLY- SHEARED WITH WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. WHEN COUPLED WITH
A WEAK WIND FIELD ALOFT, IT MAKES FOR THE PERFECT RECIPE FOR
FLASH- FLOODING, WITH HIGH RAINFALL RATES COMING FROM SLOW-MOVING
CELLS. EXPECT MORE OF THE SAME ON SATURDAY, MORE SO IN AREAS EAST
OF I-65, AND AGAIN SUNDAY ACROSS ALL OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE.
MEANWHILE, TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A LITTLE ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS,
BUT THE HUMIDITY WILL HELP SEND HEAT INDICES INTO THE LOW 100S
MOST AREAS WEST OF THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS DAYS 1-3 FOR PORTIONS OF
EASTERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE, BUT THE PRIMARY RISK IS GOING TO
CONTINUE TO BE FLASH-FLOODING.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1053 PM CDT FRI JUL 17 2026
STARTING ON MONDAY, SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR WILL TRICKLE INTO THE MID
STATE, RESULTING IN LOWER POPS AND LOWER QPF, ALTHOUGH HEAT
INDICES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED. TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE HOTTEST DAY,
AS AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES REACH THE MID 90S IN MANY AREAS, AND
HEAT INDICES SIMILARLY REACH 105 OR BETTER. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A
HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED ON TUESDAY. A SECOND SURFACE BOUNDARY
WILL COME THROUGH MIDDLE TENNESSEE TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY
WEDNESDAY, AND THIS WILL END THE HEAT THREAT BY BRINGING IN COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND ALSO LOWER HUMIDITY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 600 AM CDT SAT JUL 18 2026
A MUGGY, UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WITH MAINLY DIURNAL
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS AND PATCHY FOG/STRATUS AT NIGHT.
OUTSIDE ANY STORMS, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE DAYTIME
HOURS. WINDS WILL BE WNW, MOSTLY LESS THAN 10KT. LOCATIONS MOST
LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE IMPACTS FROM SCATTERED STORMS TODAY AND CIG/VSBY
REDUCTIONS TONIGHT WILL BE SRB/CSV.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 94 75 91 74 / 20 30 70 20
CLARKSVILLE 92 74 91 73 / 20 30 60 20
CROSSVILLE 87 69 85 68 / 50 30 70 20
COLUMBIA 94 73 91 72 / 30 20 60 20
COOKEVILLE 88 71 86 70 / 50 40 70 20
JAMESTOWN 89 70 85 68 / 50 40 70 20
LAWRENCEBURG 91 72 90 71 / 30 20 60 30
MURFREESBORO 94 74 92 73 / 30 30 70 30
WAVERLY 92 74 91 72 / 20 30 60 10
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM....ROSE
AVIATION.....13
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