437
FXUS64 KOHX 042326
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
626 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2026
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 617 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2026
- MAJOR TO EXTREME HEAT RISK THROUGH SATURDAY WITH HEAT INDEX
VALUES UP TO 110 DEGREES. A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
ALL OF MIDDLE TN THROUGH 8 PM SATURDAY.
- HEAT RISK LESSENS EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT TEMPERATURES REMAIN
ABOVE-NORMAL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
- LOW CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH NEXT
WEEK. STRONGEST STORMS WILL POSE A THREAT FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS
AND HEAVY RAINFALL.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 617 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2026
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA LED TO YET ANOTHER HOT DAY WITH
NASHVILLE OFFICIALLY HITTING 100 DEGREES. PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY HAVE CAUSED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WHICH ARE STILL
ONGOING THIS EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST TOMORROW FROM WHAT'S WRITTEN BELOW. AS THE HIGH STARTS TO
SHIFT WEST, A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL ALLOW FOR MORE SCATTERED
ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THERE DOES REMAIN A LOW
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF MIDDLE TN. WIND
SHEAR IS PRETTY WEAK, LIMITING THE THREAT FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE
WEATHER. BUT PLENTY OF INSTABILITY, STEEP LAPSE RATES, AND HIGH
DCAPE VALUES WILL SUPPORT A STRONG WIND THREAT WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORM THAT DEVELOPS. OTHERWISE, THESE HOT TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE WITH HIGHS STILL WELL INTO THE 90S.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1041 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2026
ANOTHER HOT AND STICKY DAY IS UPON US. TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY IN
THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S THIS MORNING WITH DEW POINT TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID 70S. A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH
SATURDAY AT 8PM FOR HEAT INDEX VALUES UP TO 110 DEGREES. ASIDE
FROM THE HEAT, WE'LL HAVE A LOW CHANCE FOR ISOLATED STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO PULL BACK FROM THE AREA.
GIVEN HIGH AIR TEMPERATURES, SOUNDING PROFILES WILL FEATURE AN
INVERTED-V, FAVORING STRONG GUSTY WINDS SHOULD ANYTHING DEVELOP
WITH DCAPE VALUES IN THE 1000S. WARM AND MUGGY AGAIN OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. ON SATURDAY, WE'LL SEE
SOME PROGRESSION WITH THE UPPER AIR PATTERN AS RIDGING PULLS WEST
AND FLOW ORIENTS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES TO BE PULLED DOWN FROM THE MIDWEST, RIDING
THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. AS SUCH, THIS DOES APPEAR TO BE THE
CASE SATURDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT DEVELOPS OUT AHEAD OF THIS
WAVE. THIS WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY RAMPS UP
WITH PEAK HEATING. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE MARGINAL AT BEST, BUT
SINCE INSTABILITY VALUES WILL BE SO HIGH, IT WON'T TAKE MUCH PUSH
TO GET A STORM GOING. ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING FREQUENT LIGHTNING, GUSTY WINDS, AND HEAVY RAIN. THE
BETTER FORCING WILL BE OVER OUR NORTHEAST COUNTIES, BUT KEEP AN
EYE OUT NO MATTER WHERE YOU ARE IN THE MID-STATE AS STORMS COULD
SPROUT UP QUICKLY.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1041 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2026
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS FOR THE END TIME FOR SATURDAY'S ACTIVITY.
SOME CAMS ARE HINTING AT ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY LATER INTO THE
EVENING WHERE OTHERS HAVE THINGS WINDING DOWN AROUND 7PM.
MAINTAINED LOW POP DURING THE 6PM-12AM TIMEFRAME TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS UNCERTAINTY. ON SUNDAY, THOUGH STILL HOT, THE COLD FRONT WILL
ALLOW FOR DRIER AIR TO FILTER IN TO THE AREA, BRINGING HEAT INDEX
VALUES BELOW TRIPLE DIGITS. FOR THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK, IT'S
GONNA BE...YOU GUESSED IT. HOT. WE WILL REMAIN FIXED BETWEEN
RIDGING TO THE WEST AND TROUGHING TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH MONDAY
WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR LOW CHANCES FOR DIURNALLY-DRIVEN STORMS. BY
TUESDAY, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SOLIDLY BACK OVER THE SOUTHEAST,
SHUTTING OFF RAIN CHANCES FOR A FEW DAYS. THOUGH IT'S NOT
CURRENTLY LOOKING HEAT ADVISORY HOT (FEEL-LIKE OF 105), IT'S
STILL GOING TO BE UNCOMFORTABLE OUT AS HEAT INDEX VALUES MAKE A
RUN FOR 100 DEGREES AGAIN. KEEP THIS IN MIND IF YOU HAVE ANY
OUTDOOR INTERESTS NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER PATTERN SHIFT NEAR THE END OF
THE WEEK WILL RE-INTRODUCE LOW RAIN CHANCES INTO THE FORECAST.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 606 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2026
STORM ACTIVITY IS WANING WITH DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED STORMS WILL DEVELOP AFTER 18Z.
PROB30 GROUPS WERE INCLUDED DURING THE PERIOD OF WIDEST STORM
COVERAGE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE MORNING.
A TERMINAL MAY BE IMPACTED BY A STORM OR OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WHICH
COULD DETERMINE WIND DIRECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 76 98 74 94 / 10 30 10 0
CLARKSVILLE 75 98 72 94 / 10 30 10 0
CROSSVILLE 71 91 68 88 / 10 30 20 10
COLUMBIA 74 100 72 98 / 10 20 10 0
COOKEVILLE 73 94 70 90 / 10 30 20 0
JAMESTOWN 73 91 69 87 / 10 30 30 0
LAWRENCEBURG 73 97 71 95 / 10 20 10 0
MURFREESBORO 74 100 72 97 / 10 20 10 0
WAVERLY 75 99 74 95 / 10 20 10 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR TNZ005>011-023>034-
056>066-075-077>080-093>095.
UPDATE.......CLEMENTS
SHORT TERM...BAGGETT
LONG TERM....BAGGETT
AVIATION.....REAGAN
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