416
FXUS64 KOHX 260535
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1235 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1232 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2026
- PATCHY DENSE FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT, MAINLY
IN AREAS THAT EXPERIENCED SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
- STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FROM MONDAY EVENING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH ALL HAZARDS POSSIBLE.
- THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT,
BUT THIS WILL BE CONDITIONAL ON HOW MONDAY NIGHT'S EVENT
EVOLVES.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1013 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2026
DEW POINT SPREADS IN RAIN-AFFECTED AREAS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF
NASHVILLE HAVE DROPPED TO ZERO, OR VERY NEARLY SO, AND ALREADY
WE'RE SEEING SEVERAL STATIONS REPORT REDUCED VISIBILITIES DUE TO
RADIATION FOG. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR IN CASE DENSE FOG
BECOMES WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY LATER ON. IN THE
MEANTIME, SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A FINE SPRING DAY AS TEMPERATURES
WARM INTO THE 80S MOST LOCATIONS WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST TOMORROW NIGHT, ENABLING FOR
SOME RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT ACTIVE
WEATHER SYSTEM, WHICH IS LIKELY TO BRING CONVECTION AND POSSIBLE
SEVERE STORMS TO MIDDLE TENNESSEE LATE MONDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO
TUESDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE MID STATE ON
MONDAY, BUT WITH SO LITTLE FORCING PRESENT IN THE PRE-FRONTAL
ENVIRONMENT, WE AREN'T LIKELY TO SEE ANY CONVECTION DEVELOP UNTIL
AFTER 00Z. THERE SEEMS TO BE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY AND AVAILABLE
MOISTURE BY THEN SO THAT A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND UPPER SHORTWAVE
WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT FOR WIDESPREAD CONVECTION MAINLY MONDAY
EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. OBVIOUSLY, SEVERE CHANCES
DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST OWING TO THE NOCTURNAL TIMING OF THE
EVENT AS IT RELATES TO MIDDLE TENNESSEE, AND WE'LL HAVE TO SEE HOW
MUCH INSTABILITY THE ATMOSPHERE RETAINS AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES
IN ORDER TO GAGE HOW LATE THE SEVERE THREAT WILL LAST IN THE OHX
COUNTY WARNING AREA. AT THIS TIME, IT'S SAFE TO SAY THAT ALL MODES
OF SEVERE WEATHER ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1013 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2026
THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WON'T ACTUALLY COME THROUGH MIDDLE
TENNESSEE UNTIL TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT, AT WHICH TIME SEVERE STORMS
ARE ONCE AGAIN POSSIBLE. HOWEVER, A LOT DEPENDS ON THE SEVERITY OF
MONDAYS NIGHT'S EVENT AS TO WHETHER WE'LL HAVE MUCH OF A SEVERE
THREAT 24 HOURS LATER. SO WE HAVE MUCH LESS CONFIDENCE IN SEVERITY
TUESDAY NIGHT AS MONDAY NIGHT. AT ANY RATE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN BEHIND TUESDAY NIGHT'S COLD FRONT SO THAT THE REMAINDER
OF NEXT WEEK AND WEEKEND WILL BE CONSIDERABLY COOLER THAN THE
WARMTH WE'RE EXPERIENCING THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS FAR
AS QPF VALUES GO, 7-DAY CUMULATIVE TOTALS FALL BETWEEN 2 AND 4
INCHES ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE TENDENCY OF QPF
TO DECREASE AS WE APPROACH EXPECTED RAIN EVENTS DURING THIS
ONGOING DROUGHT, WE WON'T GET EXCITED QUITE YET ON THE PROSPECT OF
A POSSIBLE MULTI-DAY, DROUGHT-BUSTING RAINFALL EVENT.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1232 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2026
OVERNIGHT WOES FOR SRB AND CSV DUE TO DENSE FOG. LIFR CATS ARE IN
THE TAFS THROUGH 13Z WITH IMPROVEMENT BACK TO VFR THEREAFTER.
BNA AND CKV ARE IN GOOD SHAPE WITH VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS
WILL BE NE TOMORROW AT 7-10 KTS AND A SCATTERING OF CLOUDS.
WATCHING PATCHY FOG AT MQY TONIGHT. TAF REFLECTS TRANSIENT
MVFR/IFR VIS AND WILL AMEND AS NEEDED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 84 60 84 66 / 0 0 40 100
CLARKSVILLE 83 59 86 67 / 0 10 50 100
CROSSVILLE 78 54 77 55 / 0 0 10 80
COLUMBIA 83 59 84 64 / 0 10 40 90
COOKEVILLE 79 58 80 59 / 0 0 30 90
JAMESTOWN 78 54 80 56 / 0 0 10 90
LAWRENCEBURG 83 59 83 63 / 0 0 40 90
MURFREESBORO 83 59 84 62 / 0 0 40 90
WAVERLY 83 61 86 65 / 0 10 40 100
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR TNZ011-
032>034-058-060>066-075-077>080-093>095.
SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM....ROSE
AVIATION.....SIZEMORE
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page