112
FXUS64 KOHX 021722
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1222 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1219 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2026
- LOOK FOR LOW TO MEDIUM POPS THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, MAINLY ALONG
AND NEAR THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU.
- COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY,
WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK TO SEASONAL NORMS BY WEDNESDAY.
- HEAT INDICES IN THE LOW 100S WILL RETURN TO THE REGION STARTING
ON THURSDAY, BUT IT DOESN'T APPEAR THAT WE WILL QUITE REACH HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA ANYTIME SOON. SO THE RISK OF HAZARDOUS WEATHER
DURING THE NEXT 7+ DAYS IS VERY LOW.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1020 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2026
THIS MORNING, WE'VE GOT A COMBO OCCLUDED FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH
COMING THROUGH MIDDLE TENNESSEE, HENCE THE LINGERING CLOUDINESS
AND PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE WE'RE WATCHING ON RADAR.
THE MORNING SOUNDING FROM OHX SHOWS A RELATIVELY STABLE, ALBEIT
HUMID ENVIRONMENT STILL IN PLACE FOLLOWING YESTERDAY'S COLD FROPA.
BUT AT LEAST WE'RE ENJOYING A MUCH-NEEDED REPRIEVE FROM THE
STORMINESS AND UBIQUITOUS THREAT OF FLOOD-PRODUCING RAINFALL THAT
SEEM TO HAVE BEEN A PART OF THE DAILY FORECAST FOR SO LONG. I
WISH WE COULD SAY THAT TODAY'S WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT AND
LEAVE US ALONE, BUT THE UPPER LOW WILL STALL OUT OVER THE
APPALACHIANS IN COMING DAYS, SO WE ARE GOING TO BE LEFT WITH LOW
TO MEDIUM POPS FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK, PRIMARILY OVER THE
CUMBERLAND PLATEAU AND ADJACENT AREAS. WE'RE GOING TO ENJOY
COOLER-THAN-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS, SO THAT
WILL CERTAINLY BE A WELCOME ANOMALY FROM WHAT WE WOULD NORMALLY
CALL THE "DOG DAYS OF SUMMER" NOW THAT AUGUST HAS ARRIVED.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1020 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2026
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK UP TO SEASONAL NORMS BY WEDNESDAY, AND
THEN CONTINUE TO INCH UPWARD A LITTLE MORE BY WEEK'S END. BY
THURSDAY, WE'LL START TO SEE HEAT INDICES IN THE LOW 100S IN
SEVERAL AREAS WEST OF THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU, BUT IT DOESN'T
APPEAR THAT WE WILL QUITE REACH HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA AT ANY
POINT IN THE 7-DAY FORECAST, SO AT LEAST THE RISK OF HAZARDOUS
WEATHER IS VERY LOW FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. AS FAR AS EXPECTED
RAINFALL AMOUNTS, TOTAL QPF VALUES FROM TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT RANGE FROM A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH ALONG THE TENNESSEE
RIVER TO A LITTLE OVER 1" ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CUMBERLAND
PLATEAU. EVEN THOSE HIGHER AMOUNTS WON'T BE EXCESSIVE, BUT THE
GRADIENT FROM WEST TO EAST DOES SHOW THE WIDE RANGE OF RAINFALL
PROBABILITIES THROUGHOUT THE WEEK WITH THAT PESKY UPPER LOW
WEARING OUT ITS WELCOME.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2026
WE'LL CONTINUE TO SEE PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN AND MAINLY MVFR
CEILINGS SLIDE ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS AN
OCCLUDED FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH ROTATE ACROSS THE REGION. THE
LIGHT RAIN WILL DISSIPATE BY LATE AFTERNOON, BUT LOOK FOR
WORSENING CEILINGS AND FOG FORMATION OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU, WHERE LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
(AFFECTING BOTH THE KCSV AND KSRB TERMINALS). CONDITIONS WILL
GRADUALLY IMPROVE AFTER 12Z MONDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 68 85 67 88 / 30 20 10 30
CLARKSVILLE 66 85 66 88 / 20 0 0 10
CROSSVILLE 65 79 64 83 / 30 50 10 70
COLUMBIA 67 86 66 89 / 30 10 0 30
COOKEVILLE 66 80 66 84 / 40 40 10 50
JAMESTOWN 66 80 65 83 / 30 50 10 50
LAWRENCEBURG 67 83 67 87 / 40 20 10 40
MURFREESBORO 68 85 67 88 / 40 30 10 30
WAVERLY 66 85 66 88 / 20 10 0 10
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM....ROSE
AVIATION.....ROSE
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