807
FXUS64 KOHX 280356
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1056 PM CDT SUN SEP 27 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1038 PM CDT SUN SEP 27 2026
- PLEASANT WEATHER WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS
THROUGH MONDAY.
- WARMING WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY MIDWEEK WITH HIGHS REACHING THE
80S TO LOWER 90S.
- LOW TO MEDIUM RAIN CHANCES DEVELOP BY THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1038 PM CDT SUN SEP 27 2026
A LARGE SURFACE TROUGH STRETCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT WITH
PATCHY HIGH CLOUDS FILTERING IN. WE REMAIN UNDER A SUBSTANTIAL
AMOUNT OF DRY AIR AND WILL ENJOY ONE MORE "COOL" DAY MONDAY BEFORE
TEMPERATURES JUMP BACK UP. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S
WITH COOL OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. AS THE DEEP LOW
OVER THE NORTHEAST COAST CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY, RIDGING WILL
PULL IN BEHIND IN AND SET UP SHOP THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY THROUGH POTENTIALLY FRIDAY WILL WILL WARM
BACK UP INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1038 PM CDT SUN SEP 27 2026
MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL SHIFT SOUTHWESTERLY BY MID-WEEK, DRAWING
MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE RETURN OF A
MORE HUMID AIRMASS THAT WE ARE ALL TOO FAMILIAR WITH. OUR STREAK
OF NO RAIN IN NASHVILLE WILL VERY LIKELY CONTINUE UNDER THIS RIDGE
AS RAIN CHANCES REMAIN SLIM TO NONE. THE FORECAST BECOMES MORE
UNCERTAIN STARTING FRIDAY AS THE NBM CONTINUES TO SUGGEST LOW TO
MEDIUM RAIN CHANCES RETURNING, BUT SIGNIFICANT MODEL DISAGREEMENT
REMAINS. THERE IS A LARGE SPREAD IN POTENTIAL HIGH TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY BECAUSE OF THIS, TOO. ENSEMBLES SHOW VERY DIFFERENT
OUTCOMES THROUGH SATURDAY, MAKING THE FORECAST DURING THIS TIME A
LOW CONFIDENCE ONE. THERE IS MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT AND SIGNAL FOR
RAIN DURING THE SUNDAY/MONDAY TIMEFRAME WITH RAIN CHANCES AREAWIDE
RANGING FROM 50-70%. BY THIS POINT, ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL BE
MUCH HIGHER, SETTING THE STAGE FOR A GOOD, HOPEFULLY SOAKING RAIN.
THE LAST DAY NASHVILLE HAD MEASURABLE RAINFALL WAS AUGUST 26TH,
AND EVEN THAT WAS VERY LITTLE, LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH. WE
ARE LIKELY ABOUT TO WRAP UP THE HOTTEST AND DRIEST SEPTEMBER ON
RECORD.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 607 PM CDT SUN SEP 27 2026
WITH NO GUIDANCE TO SUPPORT KEEPING FOG IN AT CSV/SRB, HAVE
REMOVED. THIS MEANS VFR EVERYWHERE WITH LIGHT NNE WINDS THROUGHOUT
THIS CYCLE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 53 85 55 85 / 0 0 0 0
CLARKSVILLE 50 81 52 84 / 0 0 0 0
CROSSVILLE 48 76 51 81 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBIA 50 82 51 86 / 0 0 0 0
COOKEVILLE 49 77 52 81 / 0 0 0 0
JAMESTOWN 48 76 50 81 / 0 0 0 0
LAWRENCEBURG 49 82 51 85 / 0 0 0 0
MURFREESBORO 50 83 51 87 / 0 0 0 0
WAVERLY 52 80 54 82 / 0 0 0 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...BAGGETT
LONG TERM....BAGGETT
AVIATION.....UNGER
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