532
FXUS64 KOHX 260423
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1123 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1054 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2026
- SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY RE-DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT. SEVERE
STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
- HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL RESUME SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH
HEAT INDICES IN THE 100S MOST AREAS WEST OF THE CUMBERLAND
PLATEAU. IT IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY THAT A HEAT ADVISORY
WILL BE NEEDED ON MONDAY, AND PERHAPS AGAIN ON TUESDAY. COOLER
AND LESS HUMID AIR WILL ARRIVE BY WEDNESDAY AND LINGER THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND.
- THERE ARE GENERALLY LOW RAIN AND STORM CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY, BUT SOME ISOLATED SPOTS COULD STILL GET A DOWNPOUR. RAIN
CHANCES THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK ARE VERY LOW.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1054 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2026
AFTER A GENERALLY QUIET EVENING OF RADAR ACTIVITY, A FEW CELLS
ARE STARTING TO DEVELOP NEAR THE TN/KY LINE, AND THE HRRR SUGGESTS
THAT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY DURING THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. WE CAN'T COMPLETELY RULE OUT ADDITIONAL STORMS ON SUNDAY,
BUT THE HRRR HAS BEEN QUITE INCONSISTENT FROM RUN-TO-RUN. AT THIS
TIME, WE HAVE LOW POPS IN THE GRIDS FOR SOME AREAS MAINLY EAST OF
I-65 FOR TOMORROW, BUT THIS COULD ALSO CHANGE IN FAVOR OF MORE
WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT. FORECAST MODELS DO HINT AT MCS REMNANTS
IMPACTING THE MID STATE ON MONDAY, AND THE NBM OUTPUT IS ALSO
SHOWING SOMETHING CURIOUS. FOR EXAMPLE, FOR BNA, THE 19Z NBM IS
SHOWING A 38% CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL FROM 00Z MONDAY UNTIL
00Z TUESDAY, BUT ALSO A 16% CHANCE OF 1"+, A 13% CHANCE OF 2"+ AND
A 9% CHANCE OF 3"+. THE BEST WAY TO INTERPRET THIS IS SIMPLY TO
SAY THAT THERE ARE GENERALLY LOW POPS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY MONDAY, BUT IMPACTED AREAS COULD ALSO SEE ISOLATED
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. IN THE MEANTIME, A SATURATED AIR MASS HAS
COME BACK TO US. THE 00Z SOUNDING FROM OHX SHOWS A SBCAPE OF
2,213 J/KG (DESPITE A STABLE LAYER BELOW 850 MB), A LIFTED INDEX
OF -5, AND NEAR-RECORD PRECIPITABLE WATER OF 2.14". INDEED, THE
HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL RETURN ON SUNDAY, WITH HEAT INDICES LIKELY
REACHING THE LOW 100S MANY AREAS WEST OF THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY LOOK TO BE EVEN HOTTER, AND IT IS BECOMING
INCREASINGLY LIKELY THAT A HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR MONDAY
AND PERHAPS AGAIN TUESDAY. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT MIDDLE TENNESSEE
ISN'T OUTLOOKED FOR SEVERE STORMS FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE, AND
THE WPC'S EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOKS DO NOT INCLUDE THE MID
STATE AFTER TONIGHT.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1054 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2026
CONFIDENCE IS GROWING THAT WE WILL ENJOY A FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE
TUESDAY OR TUESDAY EVENING THAT WILL ALLOW DRIER, COOLER AIR TO
SPREAD INTO THE MID STATE. THIS WOULD BRING AN END TO THE THREAT
OF EXCESSIVE HEAT, AND ALSO SUPPRESS RAIN CHANCES FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO LAST
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND, WHILE RAIN AND STORM CHANCES LOOK TO
INCREASE BY NEXT WEEKEND AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS ALONG THE
GULF COAST AND SPREADS DEEPER MOISTURE INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 634 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2026
MIX BAG OF CONDITIONS OUT THERE THIS EVENING, FROM VFR TO MVFR
CIGS. AFTERNOON SHOWERS HAVE DIMINISHED, LEAVING BEHIND A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS. NOT EXPECTING ANY THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THIS
EVENING. MAIN FOCUS WILL BE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR CIGS AND
PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN
THE CURRENT FORECAST, WITH A WIDE SPREAD OF MODEL SOLUTIONS. AT
THIS TIME, THINKING WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT, WITH SOME PATCHY IFR CONDITIONS AFTER 09Z. MOSTLY MVFR
CONDITIONS LOOK LIKELY AFTER 12Z, MAKING WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING BETWEEN 15Z-18Z. ANY AFTERNOON STORM CHANCES REMAIN
LOW FOR SUNDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 73 92 75 95 / 40 10 20 30
CLARKSVILLE 73 93 75 96 / 40 10 20 40
CROSSVILLE 68 85 68 88 / 60 10 10 20
COLUMBIA 72 92 73 95 / 30 10 20 40
COOKEVILLE 70 87 70 89 / 60 20 20 30
JAMESTOWN 68 85 68 88 / 60 10 20 20
LAWRENCEBURG 71 90 72 93 / 40 10 20 40
MURFREESBORO 72 92 73 95 / 40 20 20 30
WAVERLY 72 92 74 96 / 20 0 20 20
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM....ROSE
AVIATION.....CRAVENS
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