854
FXUS64 KOHX 051127 AAB
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
627 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 541 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2026
- A FEW LINGERING THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED GUSTY WINDS,
SMALL HAIL AND DOWNPOURS TONIGHT.
- THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5) FOR SEVERE STORMS ON
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING. THE PRIMARY THREATS ARE STRONG TO
SEVERE WIND GUSTS, TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS, SMALL HAIL AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING WHICH MIGHT IMPACT OUTDOOR EVENTS.
- THE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK IS NOT AS HOT, BUT STILL QUITE WARM
WITH RAIN AND STORM CHANCES EACH DAY, ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE END
OF THE WEEK. NO HEAT-RELATED HEADLINES WILL BE REQUIRED FOR THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1115 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2026
MIDDLE TENNESSEE FINDS ITSELF UNDER A SHORTWAVE PATTERN ALOFT,
WHICH IS GOING TO HELP KEEP MEDIUM TO HIGH RAIN CHANCES IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE THIS SYSTEM FINALLY PULLS EAST OF
THE MID STATE. IN THE MEANTIME, WE EXPECT MORE STORM DEVELOPMENT
TOMORROW AS THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS UNSTABLE, ALONG WITH
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT,
PRIMARILY DURING PEAK-HEATING HOURS AND PERSISTING INTO THE
EVENING. LIKE TODAY, THE PRIMARY THREATS TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ARE GOING TO BE STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS FROM
THUNDERSTORMS, ALONG WITH TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS, SMALL HAIL AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING. ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT, A WEAK SURFACE
BOUNDARY LOOKS TO PUSH THROUGH MIDDLE TENNESSEE, WHICH WILL DRY US
OUT CONSIDERABLY AND LOWER OUR RAIN CHANCES AFTERWARDS.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1115 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2026
ALTHOUGH THE TROUGHING PATTERN ALOFT WILL STAY WITH US UNTIL MID-
WEEK, DRYER AIR WILL GREATLY LOWER OUR RAIN CHANCES FROM TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. HOWEVER, IT APPEARS THAT ANOTHER SURFACE
BOUNDARY WILL COME THROUGH THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK, WITH
MEDIUM TO HIGH RAIN AND STORM CHANCES NEXT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
FORTUNATELY, THE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS WILL DROP OFF AFTER
TOMORROW. ALSO, WE DON'T ANTICIPATE ANY HEAT ADVISORIES FOR THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE. TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 7 DAYS WILL
STAY CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS AND NO HEAT-RELATED PRODUCTS WILL BE
REQUIRED FROM THIS POINT FORWARD. SO WHILE THE ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE AT TIMES DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK, THE HEAT
AND HUMIDITY WILL BE MUCH MORE MANAGEABLE.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 541 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2026
KBNA AND KMQY: GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS
ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS OUTSIDE OF ANY TSRA
DEVELOPMENT BETWEEN 20Z-02Z SO INCLUDED A PROB30 FOR NOW.
KCSV, KCKV, AND KSRB: DEALING WITH SOME BCFG AND BR THIS MORNING
REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO MVFR/IFR BUT SHOULD BURN OFF QUICKLY BY
14Z. ONCE AGAIN, CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN PINPOINTING ANY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING TSRA SO CONTINUED A PROB30 AS WELL FOR 22Z-03Z.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 92 72 88 71 / 50 50 70 20
CLARKSVILLE 91 71 86 70 / 50 60 40 10
CROSSVILLE 87 67 83 66 / 60 40 80 20
COLUMBIA 92 70 88 69 / 50 40 60 20
COOKEVILLE 88 69 84 68 / 70 40 80 20
JAMESTOWN 87 67 84 66 / 70 40 70 20
LAWRENCEBURG 90 69 86 68 / 50 40 60 20
MURFREESBORO 93 71 89 70 / 50 40 70 30
WAVERLY 91 70 86 69 / 50 50 50 10
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM....ROSE
AVIATION.....HURLEY
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