361
FXUS64 KOHX 180508
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1108 PM CST TUE FEB 17 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1101 PM CST TUE FEB 17 2026
- EXPECT WARM, SPRING-LIKE TEMPERATURES THE REST OF THIS WEEK WITH
NEAR-RECORD VALUES POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY.
- RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT, AND ARE LIKELY TO EXTEND INTO THE WEEKEND.
- STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE IS
A LOW CHANCE FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS THURSDAY
EVENING AND POSSIBLY INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 708 PM CST TUE FEB 17 2026
A WARM FRONT HAS DEVELOPED NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER WITH A COLD
FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM A SURFACE LOW SITUATED OVER
NORTHEASTERN NEBRASKA. SO MIDDLE TENNESSEE FINDS ITSELF ENJOYING A
WARM, MARITIME TROPICAL AIR MASS, WITH SURFACE WINDS HAVING
INCREASED FROM THE SOUTH ALREADY. COPIOUS UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE HAS
RESULTED IN WIDESPREAD CIRRUS CLOUDS TODAY. HOWEVER, THE 00Z
SOUNDING FROM OHX SHOWS THAT A DEEP DRY LAYER STILL EXISTS FROM
~900 MB ALL THE WAY UP TO 500 MB. TONIGHT'S LOWS WON'T BE MUCH
COOLER THAN TODAY'S HIGHS OWING TO A PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY SURFACE
WIND ADVECTING WARM AIR INTO THE AREA. TOMORROW, A PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH LOOKS TO ROTATE ACROSS THE REGION, SO LOOK FOR MORE
CLOUDINESS ON WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS MAINLY
NORTH OF I-40.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 956 PM CST TUE FEB 17 2026
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD OWING TO WIDESPREAD
CLOUDINESS AND A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW. THE CLOUDINESS WILL REMAIN
THROUGHOUT TOMORROW AS A SURFACE BOUNDARY RACES TOWARD MIDDLE
TENNESSEE. SPOTTY SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP TOMORROW, ESPECIALLY NORTH
OF I-40, ALTHOUGH ANY RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY LIGHT, AS
THERE ISN'T A GREAT DEAL OF ANTECEDENT MOISTURE WITH THIS AIR
MASS. BETTER RAIN AND EVEN SOME STORM CHANCES ARE EXPECTED
TOMORROW NIGHT AS A SECOND SURFACE BOUNDARY DEVELOPS AHEAD OF
DEEPENING LOW TRACKING ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS. THIS SECOND COLD
FRONT WILL ULTIMATELY SWEEP ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE THURSDAY
NIGHT, AND CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE WITH THE FROPA, WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF A FEW STRONG STORMS, AS WELL. MEANWHILE,
TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK ON THURSDAY, WITH NEAR-RECORD VALUES
POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 956 PM CST TUE FEB 17 2026
RAIN CHANCES WILL TAPER OFF TEMPORARILY ON FRIDAY AS TEMPERATURES
BEGIN A DOWNWARD TREND FOLLOWING THURSDAY NIGHT'S FROPA. HOWEVER,
THIS WON'T MEAN THE END OF OUR ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN AS A WARM
FRONT DEVELOPS TO OUR SOUTH ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
BEING ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES TO THE MID STATE AS WE HEAD INTO THE
WEEKEND. A FINAL COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EVERYTHING EAST OF THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT, TO BE FOLLOWED BY A RETURN TO WINTER-LIKE
TEMPERATURES. IT APPEARS THAT MONDAY MORNING AND TUESDAY MORNING
WILL BE THE COLDEST FOR MID STATE RESIDENTS, AS TEMPERATURES LOOK
TO SINK INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S MOST AREAS BEFORE WARMER WEATHER
STARTS TO BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DESPITE THE RETURN OF SEVERAL DAYS OF RAIN CHANCES, THE OVERALL
7-DAY QPF IS RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE, WITH TOTAL AMOUNTS RANGING FROM
AROUND 1/4" ACROSS NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE TO
AROUND 1" ALONG THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU. OTHER THAN A DAY 3
MARGINAL RISK AREA AFFECTING PARTS OF THE MID STATE WITH THURSDAY
NIGHT'S EXPECTED STORMS, THE RISK OF ANY HAZARDOUS WEATHER REMAINS
VERY LOW.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1101 PM CST TUE FEB 17 2026
SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS. BKN TO OVC LOW
AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
WHILE VFR CIGS PREVAIL AT THE START OF THIS CYCLE, CIGS SHOULD
GRADUALLY FALL OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR AREAWIDE BY EARLY MORNING AND
ALSO CONTINUING THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR
LIGHT SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, AND INTRODUCED A PROB30 GROUP
AT CSV AND SRB WHERE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS HIGHEST
PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 57 69 59 76 / 0 10 50 30
CLARKSVILLE 56 69 57 76 / 10 20 40 30
CROSSVILLE 52 61 55 69 / 0 20 50 30
COLUMBIA 56 67 59 76 / 0 10 40 20
COOKEVILLE 55 63 56 71 / 0 20 60 40
JAMESTOWN 53 61 55 71 / 0 20 70 40
LAWRENCEBURG 56 66 59 75 / 0 10 30 20
MURFREESBORO 57 67 59 76 / 0 10 50 30
WAVERLY 55 67 57 74 / 10 20 40 20
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE.......ROSE
SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM....ROSE
AVIATION.....CLEMENTS
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