960
FXUS64 KOHX 091728
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1228 PM CDT FRI OCT 9 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1222 PM CDT FRI OCT 9 2026
- QUIET TODAY WITH JUST INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND TEMPERATURES
IN THE 80S.
- REMNANTS OF ISAIAS WILL BRING HIGH RAIN CHANCES AND GUSTY WINDS
OF 40+ MPH THIS WEEKEND. RAIN TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 1
TO 3 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. THE TORNADO
THREAT IS LOW BUT NON-ZERO.
- WARM, DRY WEATHER RETURNS MONDAY.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1144 AM CDT FRI OCT 9 2026
WE'LL CLOSE OUT THE WEEK WITH ONE LAST DAY OF WARM, QUIET WEATHER.
CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE
80S.
HURRICANE ISAIAS WILL MAKE LANDFALL IN THE GULF LATER TODAY AND
TRACK NNW THROUGH TOMORROW BEFORE MAKING A JOG TO THE NE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY. THIS TROPICAL SYSTEM WILL BRING AN
ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE, LIKELY PRODUCING 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN
ACROSS THE AREA (HIGHEST SOUTH OF I-40) WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. ALTHOUGH WE NEED THE RAIN GIVEN THE ONGOING
MODERATE TO EXTREME DROUGHT ACROSS MIDDLE TN, OUR PROLONGED DRY
CONDITIONS WILL REDUCE THE SOIL'S ABILITY TO ABSORB WATER AND WILL
INCREASE OUR CHANCES FOR FLASH FLOODING. THE EXISTING FLOOD WATCH
HAS BEEN EXPANDED EAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU
GIVEN THE EASTWARD SHIFT IN ISAIAS'S TRACK.
WIND GUSTS OF 40+ MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS
LIKELY OCCURING SOUTH OF I-40 AND ACROSS THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU.
LATEST HREF PROBS SHOW A 50-70% CHANCE OF WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING 45
MPH ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW. THEREFORE, A WIND ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT FOR ALL OF MIDDLE TN.
WHILE THE TORNADO THREAT IS LOW, A FEW BRIEF SPIN-UP TORNADOES
ARE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY. TROPICAL TORNADOES CAN FORM AND
DISSIPATE QUICKLY AND CAN DEVELOP FROM WEAK SHOWERS OR STORMS.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1144 AM CDT FRI OCT 9 2026
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY WITH THE LAST OF
THE RAIN CLEARING THE AREA BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON/SUNDAY
EVENING.
AT THE START OF NEXT WEEK, WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN
WITH DAILY HIGHS IN THE 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S AND 60S.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT FRI OCT 9 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THE
REMNANTS FROM HURRICANE ISAIAS WILL PUSH NORTH INTO MIDDLE TN
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. WE WILL SEE CIGS LOWER AFTER 10Z WITH
RAIN PUSHING IN FROM THE SOUTH. PERIODS OF RAIN WITH MVFR CIGS AND
MVFR VIS AT TIMES CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE MORNING HOURS AND
FOR ALL OF SATURDAY. EASTERLY WINDS UNDER 8 KNOTS WILL BECOME
GUSTY AFTER 11Z WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 61 72 60 74 / 40 90 90 30
CLARKSVILLE 61 71 60 75 / 0 100 90 20
CROSSVILLE 54 67 57 66 / 70 90 90 80
COLUMBIA 59 72 60 75 / 80 100 90 20
COOKEVILLE 58 70 60 68 / 50 90 90 80
JAMESTOWN 57 68 60 68 / 20 90 80 90
LAWRENCEBURG 58 71 59 74 / 80 100 80 20
MURFREESBORO 59 74 61 74 / 70 100 90 30
WAVERLY 59 68 60 73 / 20 100 90 20
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 8 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR TNZ005>011-
023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095.
FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
TNZ024>028-030-032-056>066-075-077>080-093>095.
SHORT TERM...CAHILL
LONG TERM....CAHILL
AVIATION.....MUELLER
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