004
FXUS64 KOHX 170512
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1212 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1206 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2026
- HIGH RAIN CHANCES RETURN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NO
SEVERE WEATHER IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED.
- TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1025 PM CDT THU APR 16 2026
WELL, THAT SEVERE THREAT OVERPERFORMED, DIDN'T IT? LOOKING TOWARDS
THE WEEKEND, FRIDAY WILL BE MUCH WARMER. HIGHS LOOK TO GET INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 80S IN THE AFTERNOON, AND THE RAIN CHANCE PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED HAS DECREASED GREATLY. SO IT LOOKS LIKE FRIDAY WILL BE DRY
AND WARM, THANKS TO SOME RIDGING BUILDING IN.
OUR NEXT RAIN CHANCE COMES ON SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, WITH A STRONG
COLD FRONT PROPAGATING INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM PUSHES INTO CANADA FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS. THE SEVERE
THREAT WITH THIS FROPA IS UNDERWHELMING, AS THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
CONTINUES TO LAG BEHIND THE ACTUAL FRONT ITSELF IN GUIDANCE. A POST-
FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT IS NOT CONDUCIVE FOR SEVERE WEATHER, SO I'D
BE SURPRISED TO SEE MORE THAN A COUPLE OF STRONG STORMS ON
SATURDAY. UNFORTUNATELY, QPF IS DISAPPOINTING WITH THIS AS WELL,
WITH AMOUNTS OVER THE WEEKEND GETTING TO THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH
AT MOST. THIS IS AN INCREASE FROM PREVIOUS GUIDANCE, BUT WE'LL
NEED A LOT MORE RAIN THAT THAT TO BUST THIS DROUGHT.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1025 PM CDT THU APR 16 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETS IN POST-FRONTAL, KEEPING THINGS QUIET FOR
THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK. THAT COLD FRONT WILL PACK A PUNCH,
DROPPING OUR HIGHS INTO THE 60S ON SUNDAY. AS FOR RAIN CHANCES, IT
DOESN'T LOOK LIKE WE HAVE ANYTHING IN THE NEXT WORK WEEK COMING UP.
HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE LOW 80S MID-WEEK, SO DON'T GET TOO USED TO
THE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES!
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1206 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THIS TAF CYCLE WITH LIGHT WINDS. THE
ONLY QUESTION IS WHETHER THERE WILL BE FOG OVERNIGHT DUE TO RAINS
EARLIER THIS EVENING. WILL MONITOR AND AMEND IF NECESSARY AS
CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 89 68 80 46 / 10 0 80 80
CLARKSVILLE 88 68 75 43 / 20 10 90 50
CROSSVILLE 82 62 81 41 / 10 0 50 90
COLUMBIA 88 66 83 43 / 10 0 70 80
COOKEVILLE 84 64 80 43 / 10 0 60 90
JAMESTOWN 84 62 81 41 / 10 0 60 90
LAWRENCEBURG 87 66 82 43 / 10 0 60 90
MURFREESBORO 88 66 83 43 / 10 0 70 90
WAVERLY 87 67 77 43 / 20 10 90 60
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...HOLLEY
LONG TERM....HOLLEY
AVIATION.....UNGER
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