677
FXUS64 KOHX 151141
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
541 AM CST SUN FEB 15 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 536 AM CST SUN FEB 15 2026
- 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN IS FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. NO
MAJOR FLOODING ISSUES EXPECTED.
- WARMER TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK AND MAINLY DRY THROUGH THURSDAY.
LOW TO MEDIUM RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1005 PM CST SAT FEB 14 2026
SHOWERS ARE MOVING INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE CURRENTLY, WITH OVERCAST
SKIES KEEPING TEMPERATURES A LITTLE WARMER. RIGHT NOW, WE'RE
STARTING TO SEE MORE STRATIFORM ACTIVITY SET UP SOUTH OF I-40.
EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND POSSIBLY A LITTLE NORTH TO
HUG THE I-40 CORRIDOR. WE'RE STILL EXPECTING 1-2" OF RAIN BY SUNDAY
EVENING WHEN RAIN STOPS, AND GUIDANCE IS SUPPORTING THIS FORECAST.
AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES ITS EASTERN TREK, COOLER AND
DRIER AIR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL SLOWLY STOP THE RAIN.
HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE IN THE 50S, CLOSE TO 60 DEGREES IN SOME SPOTS
ALONG THE AL STATE LINE.
ONCE THIS SYSTEM HAS EXITED MIDDLE TENNESSEE, WARMER WEATHER AWAITS
US INTO THE WORK WEEK...
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1005 PM CST SAT FEB 14 2026
IF YOU'VE BEEN CRAVING SPRING, OR EVEN SUMMER LIKE TEMPERATURES,
THIS WILL BE YOUR WEEK. WARMER TEMPERATURES, SOME POSSIBLY RECORD
BREAKING, ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR THE WORK WEEK NEXT WEEK. MID-WEEK,
WE WILL APPROACH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S, AND THE RECORD HIGH
FOR THAT DAY IS 76 DEGREES. WEATHER WISE, IT OVERALL LOOKS TO BE A
GOOD WEEK, WITH QUIET BUT BECOMING A BIT CLOUDY CONDITIONS THROUGH
MID-WEEK.
HEADING INTO LATE WEEK, GUIDANCE IS BRINGING IN ANOTHER SYSTEM
THURSDAY. THERE'S SOME VARIABILITY IN THE TIMING GIVEN IT IS SO FAR
AWAY TEMPORALLY RIGHT NOW, BUT IT IS SOMETIME BETWEEN THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. CONFIDENCE IN MESSAGING ANYTHING IN PARTICULAR WITH THIS
SYSTEM IS LOW AS WELL, WITH TOO MUCH VARIABILITY GOING ON IN THE
GUIDANCE. WE'LL KEEP AN EYE ON IT AS WE GET INTO THE WORK WEEK, AS
THERE COULD BE SOME THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 536 AM CST SUN FEB 15 2026
AREAS OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING WITH LOWERING
CIGS, RAIN WILL BE MODERATE AT TIMES. CIGS WILL FALL TO MVFR
AFTER 13Z AND CONTINUE TO FALL TO IFR/LIFR AFTER 13/14Z AND REMAIN
LOW THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ALONG WITH MVFR VIS. CIGS WILL
GRADUALLY RISE BACK TO MVFR FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 23Z. RAIN WILL
DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 17Z BUT SHOWERS WILL LINGER
THROUGH 02Z. NORTHERLY WINDS UP TO 13 KNOTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 57 41 66 45 / 100 0 0 0
CLARKSVILLE 56 38 66 43 / 90 0 0 0
CROSSVILLE 51 38 63 43 / 100 10 0 0
COLUMBIA 56 41 65 44 / 100 0 0 0
COOKEVILLE 53 39 63 43 / 100 10 0 0
JAMESTOWN 51 38 62 42 / 100 10 0 0
LAWRENCEBURG 57 41 64 45 / 100 0 0 0
MURFREESBORO 56 41 65 44 / 100 0 0 0
WAVERLY 55 40 65 45 / 100 0 0 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...HOLLEY
LONG TERM....HOLLEY
AVIATION.....MUELLER
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