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FXUS64 KOHX 131719
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1219 PM CDT MON APR 13 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1213 PM CDT MON APR 13 2026
- LOW TO MEDIUM (<50%) RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, BUT
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT. MEDIUM TO HIGH RAIN CHANCES
FORECAST AGAIN ON THURSDAY (30-70%).
- CONTINUED UNSEASONAL WARMTH THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. RECORD
HIGHS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
- MEDIUM RAIN/STORM CHANCES THIS WEEKEND ALONG A COLD FRONT. NO
SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1150 AM CDT MON APR 13 2026
A WEAK DISTURBANCE IS PASSING THROUGH THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO
VALLEYS CURRENTLY AND THIS IS JUST ENOUGH FOR CLOUDS AND LIGHT
RAIN ACROSS THE MID STATE. AMOUNTS ARE VERY LIGHT, BUT THIS IS
CERTAINLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES. RAIN ACTIVITY WILL FADE OFF
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WITH ARRIVAL OF DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR.
TUESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY WITH RIDGING TAKING BACK
OVER IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING SHORTWAVE. AMPLE SUNSHINE AND DRY
AIR WILL BE IN PLACE WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S. WE COULD
APPROACH RECORDS, IN FACT. THE MAIN CONCERN TOMORROW IS CONTINUED
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS DUE TO DRYNESS, LOW RHS, AND AFTERNOON GUSTS
20-25 MPH. OUTDOOR BURNING IS HIGHLY DISCOURAGED.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1150 AM CDT MON APR 13 2026
WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH
HIGHS ONCE AGAIN WELL INTO THE 80S. THE RECORD OF 87 DEGREES IN
BNA IS IN CERTAIN JEOPARDY.
THANKFULLY WE'LL HAVE ANOTHER SHOT AT RAIN AND CLOUDS ON THURSDAY
TO HELP MODERATE TEMPERATURES. THIS DISTURBANCE APPEARS TO BE MORE
ROBUST THAN THE ONE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA TODAY WHICH WILL
PROVIDE BETTER LIFT AND OVERALL MOISTURE AVAILABILITY. POPS AND
QPF HAVE BOTH INCREASED, BUT THIS WILL ALSO BE ANOTHER RELATIVELY
LIGHT RAINFALL EVENT THAT WILL NO MAKE SIGNIFICANT DROUGHT
IMPROVEMENTS.
AND WITH THE CONTINUED UPS AND DOWNS, FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY SHOULD
BE ANOTHER BRIEF PERIOD OF WARM, DRY WEATHER WITH SYNOPTIC RIDGING
STILL IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER, MEDIUM-RANGE
GUIDANCE IS STILL CONSISTENT WITH A FAIRLY POTENT UPPER-LOW AND
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT.
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ADVANCE ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSE
BRINGING AT LEAST MEDIUM CHANCES FOR RAIN AND STORMS. I EXPECT
POPS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE WITH THIS SYSTEM. WITH THE PASSAGE
OF THE COLD FRONT, SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOKS COOLER AS
THIS TROUGH/FRONT PASSAGE LOOKS TO DEFEAT THE STUBBORN RIDGE IN
THE REGION.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1213 PM CDT MON APR 13 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WITH BKN TO OVC MID-LEVEL CLOUDS. LIGHT RAIN WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WHICH MAY RESULT IN BRIEF MVFR
VISIBILITIES AT BNA AND MQY. OTHERWISE, SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
OCCASIONALLY BE GUSTY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AT AROUND 15-20
KNOTS. WINDS WILL CALM WITH DECREASING CLOUDS THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AGAIN BY MID TO
LATE TUESDAY MORNING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 65 87 64 86 / 10 10 0 0
CLARKSVILLE 67 87 66 86 / 10 10 0 0
CROSSVILLE 60 82 58 83 / 0 10 0 0
COLUMBIA 64 87 61 86 / 10 0 0 0
COOKEVILLE 62 82 61 83 / 0 10 0 0
JAMESTOWN 60 82 59 84 / 10 10 0 0
LAWRENCEBURG 63 84 60 84 / 0 0 0 0
MURFREESBORO 64 87 62 86 / 10 10 0 0
WAVERLY 67 87 66 86 / 10 0 0 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...SIZEMORE
LONG TERM....SIZEMORE
AVIATION.....CLEMENTS
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