456
FXUS64 KOHX 201154
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
554 AM CST FRI FEB 20 2026
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 530 AM CST FRI FEB 20 2026
- MEDIUM TO HIGH RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT. OVERALL RAIN AMOUNTS ONE
QUARTER INCH OR LESS.
- COOLER, DRIER WEATHER FORECAST SUNDAY MORNING INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. LOWS IN THE 20S MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNINGS.
- GRADUAL WARMING MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 530 AM CST FRI FEB 20 2026
CONVECTION HAS CLEARED MIDDLE TN THIS MORNING. SOME GUSTS OF 35-45
MPH OCCURRED ACROSS THE PLATEAU AS THIS ACTIVITY MOVED THROUGH.
WE'RE NOW BEHIND THE FRONT WITH A WESTERLY BREEZE THAT WILL
PERSIST THROUGH TODAY WITH MAINLY UPPER-LEVEL CLOUDS AND A FEW
GUSTS. ISENTROPIC RAIN SHOWERS, MAINLY LIGHT IN INTENSITY, ARE
FORECAST TO SPREAD NORTHWARD LATER TONIGHT AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE
ALOFT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WHILE RAIN CHANCES ARE 30-70%,
OVERALL AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN 0.25" OR LESS. ADDITIONAL CHANCES
FOR LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE ARE FORECAST SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT
BEFORE MUCH COOLER, DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1033 PM CST THU FEB 19 2026
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT WITH THIS
LINE. NOT EXPECTING TOO MUCH RAIN WITH IT; JUST AROUND A HUNDREDTH
AROUND THE AL STATE LINE TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH ON THE PLATEAU.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL DIP INTO THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S THANKS TO
CLOUD COVER, AND CREEP BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.
ONCE THIS LINE OF ACTIVITY PASSES THROUGH BEFORE DAYBREAK, EXPECT
QUIET WEATHER TO END THE WORK WEEK. CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT IN THE
MORNING BUT FILL BACK IN INTO THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING
SURFACE LOW. THIS WILL BRING BACK A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN FRIDAY
EVENING, BUT ONCE AGAIN, LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAIN IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE MID-STATE.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1033 PM CST THU FEB 19 2026
THE SURFACE LOW TO OUR SOUTH WILL DEEPEN AND PUSH EAST INTO THE
WEEKEND. OVERALL, GUIDANCE IS ONLY SUGGESTING MIDDLE TENNESSEE WILL
PICK UP BETWEEN 0.2 AND 0.5" OF RAIN THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THERE
IS A CHANCE (40 - 60%) THAT AREAS ON THE NORTHERN CUMBERLAND PLATEAU
CLOSE TO THE KY BORDER COULD EXCEED HALF AN INCH, BUT GUIDANCE SHOWS
IT IS UNLIKELY TO EXCEED 1" OF ACCUMULATION (PROBABILITY ONLY ABOUT
15%).
TEMPERATURES WILL TAKE A DIP INTO SUNDAY AND THE WORK WEEK, WITH
HIGHS TUMBLING INTO THE 30S BY MONDAY. THINGS WILL START TO WARM UP
AGAIN INTO THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, GETTING INTO THE 50S AND
LOW 60S.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 530 AM CST FRI FEB 20 2026
MIDDLE TN AIRFIELDS ARE NOW POST-FRONTAL AND VFR WITH A
PREVAILING WESTERLY WIND THAT IS FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH
OF TODAY WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS. BKN TO OVC UPPER-LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED THIS MORNING.
LATER TONIGHT A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH
FROM THE WEST WHICH WILL RESULT IN -SHRA SPREADING NORTHWARD INTO
MIDDLE TN ALONG WITH LOWERING CEILINGS. BEST CHANCES ARE AT SRB
AND CSV, BUT I'VE USED A TEMPO GROUP FOR BNA AND MQY AND A PROB30
AT CKV. AMOUNTS ARE LIGHT OVERALL, BUT WET RUNWAYS ARE CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE. LOW CONFIDENCE ON MVFR CIGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT OVERNIGHT, N TO NE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 62 42 57 31 / 0 50 10 10
CLARKSVILLE 57 38 50 28 / 0 30 10 10
CROSSVILLE 60 40 57 28 / 0 60 20 20
COLUMBIA 63 42 58 29 / 0 60 10 10
COOKEVILLE 60 41 55 28 / 0 60 20 20
JAMESTOWN 58 39 55 27 / 0 50 20 20
LAWRENCEBURG 64 42 58 29 / 0 60 20 10
MURFREESBORO 63 42 57 29 / 0 60 10 20
WAVERLY 58 40 52 28 / 0 50 10 10
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE.......SIZEMORE
SHORT TERM...HOLLEY
LONG TERM....HOLLEY
AVIATION.....SIZEMORE
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page