850
FXUS64 KOHX 121714
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1214 PM CDT SAT SEP 12 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1204 PM CDT SAT SEP 12 2026
- LOW TO MEDIUM RAIN AND STORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON, MAINLY EAST OF I-65. THE STRONGEST STORMS MAY
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
- TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS.
HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE 100S ARE EXPECTED EVERY DAY THROUGH
THURSDAY, MAINLY FOR AREAS WEST OF THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU.
- WE MAY START TO SEE A GRADUAL COOL-DOWN NEXT WEEKEND, ALONG WITH
OUR NEXT RAIN CHANCES, BUT THERE IS A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINLY
REGARDING SPECIFIC TIMING.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1017 AM CDT SAT SEP 12 2026
THE 88D CONTINUES TO SHOW AN AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN
IMPACTING AREAS EAST OF I-65, WITH A PAUCITY OF ACTIVITY OCCURRING
ELSEWHERE. AND THE HRRR SHOWS VERY LITTLE CONVECTION DEVELOPING
IN THE AFTERNOON AIR MASS. SO WE MAY VERY WELL HAVE SEEN MOST OF
WHAT WE'RE GOING TO SEE WITH THIS WEATHER SYSTEM. THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY THAT HAS IMPACTED OUR WEATHER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS
APPEARS TO HAVE WASHED OUT. INDEED, THE ONLY FEATURE REMAINING
THAT COULD TRIGGER ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY IS AN UPPER TROUGH THAT
WILL ROTATE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON. AFTER THAT,
THE DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL RESUME. IN OTHER WORDS, IF YOU DON'T
GET ANY RAIN TODAY, IT WILL LIKELY BE SEVERAL MORE DAYS BEFORE THE
NEXT OPPORTUNITY. THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE REMAINS
VERY HUMID AND UNSTABLE. THE 12Z SOUNDING FROM OHX SHOWS NEAR-
RECORD PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WITH PLENTY OF CAPE, AND THE MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE ACTUALLY A LITTLE STEEPER THAN YESTERDAY.
BUT THE EXISTING CLOUD COVER IS ALSO KEEPING A LID ON
TEMPERATURES. WE WILL LIKELY SEE ADDITIONAL SUNSHINE DURING THE
AFTERNOON, BUT BY THEN, THE UPPER TROUGH WILL HAVE COME THROUGH
AND THERE WILL BE TOO LITTLE LIFT LEFT TO CONVERT ALL THAT
MOISTURE AND ENERGY INTO ANYTHING MORE THAN ISOLATED CELLS. AS
FAR AS TEMPERATURES, EXPECT THE UNSEASONAL WARMTH TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND -- AND THROUGHOUT NEXT WEEK, AS WELL -- AS
THE MUCH-ANTICIPATED INITIAL AUTUMN COLD FRONT IS AGONIZINGLY
SLOW TO COME OUR WAY THIS YEAR.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1017 AM CDT SAT SEP 12 2026
RAIN CHANCES NEXT WEEK ARE ABYSMAL UNTIL WE GET TO FRIDAY AND INTO
THE WEEKEND, AND EVEN THAT'S IFFY. WITH NO BREAK IN THE SUMMER
PATTERN, HEAT INDICES ARE LIKELY TO PEAK AT LEAST IN THE LOW 100S
MANY AREAS WEST OF THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU THROUGH FRIDAY, AND IT
NOW APPEARS THAT WE MAY ACTUALLY REACH HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA ON
TUESDAY, AND PERHAPS AGAIN WEDNESDAY. THE NBM CONTINUES TO HINT
AT A GRADUAL COOL-DOWN BEGINNING NEXT WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES MIDDLE TENNESSEE. HOWEVER, INDIVIDUAL MODEL SOLUTIONS
DIVERGE GREATLY WHEN IT COMES TO PINNING DOWN A TIME FRAME FOR
THAT FROPA. OBVIOUSLY, OUR NEXT RAIN CHANCES AND THE INEVITABLE
DROP IN TEMPERATURES WILL DEPEND LARGELY ON THE TIMING OF THAT
COLD FRONT. SO PLENTY OF UNCERTAINLY REMAINS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1204 PM CDT SAT SEP 12 2026
A DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON WITH MEDIUM COVERAGE ALONG THE PLATEAU AND LOW COVERAGE
FARTHER WEST. TEMPO GROUPS WILL BE INCLUDED FOR CSV AND SRB WITH
PROB30 GROUPS FOR BNA AND MQY. PROBS ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE FOR
CKV. OUTSIDE STORMS, VFR WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS AND
LIGHT SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS.
LIGHT WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES WILL BRING AREAS OF FOG AND STRATUS TONIGHT,
MAINLY FOR THE PLATEAU. DAYTIME SUNDAY WILL PROVIDE VFR CONDITIONS
WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 68 93 70 92 / 0 0 0 0
CLARKSVILLE 66 94 69 90 / 0 0 10 0
CROSSVILLE 63 86 64 86 / 20 0 10 10
COLUMBIA 67 95 69 95 / 0 0 0 0
COOKEVILLE 66 89 67 88 / 10 0 0 0
JAMESTOWN 65 86 66 85 / 10 0 10 0
LAWRENCEBURG 66 93 68 93 / 0 0 0 0
MURFREESBORO 68 95 69 94 / 0 0 0 0
WAVERLY 68 94 70 93 / 0 0 0 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM....ROSE
AVIATION.....13
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