204
FXUS64 KOHX 090518
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1218 AM CDT FRI OCT 9 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1215 AM CDT FRI OCT 9 2026
- QUIET FRIDAY WITH JUST INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND TEMPERATURES
IN THE 80S.
- REMNANTS OF ISAIAS WILL BRING HIGH RAIN CHANCES AND GUSTY WINDS
OF 30 TO 40 MPH THIS WEEKEND. RAIN TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
AROUND 1 TO 3 INCHES. TORNADO THREAT IS LOW.
- WARM, DRY WEATHER RETURNS MONDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1029 PM CDT THU OCT 8 2026
ALL IS QUIET ACROSS MIDDLE TN THIS EVENING. SATELLITE IMAGERY DOES
SHOW CLOUDS STREAMING INTO THE AREA COURTESY OF HURRICANE ISAIAS.
LOOK FOR CLOUDS TO CONTINUE MOVING INTO MIDDLE TN TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY. BUT OTHERWISE, NO WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH FRIDAY AS
TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 80S.
HURRICANE ISAIAS WILL MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE GULF COAST LATE
FRIDAY AND WILL TRACK NNW INTO THE TN VALLEY. AS IT DOES SO,
ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL STREAM INTO THE AREA WITH PWATS
RISING TO 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES, ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE. AS SUCH,
RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE SATURDAY MORNING WITH
HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
FORECAST RAIN AMOUNTS ARE STILL RANGING FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH
HIGHEST RAIN TOTALS FAVORING AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-40. WHILE
THIS IS CERTAINLY RAIN THAT WE NEED DUE TO WORSENING DROUGHT
CONDITIONS, WE ARE STILL CONCERNED ABOUT THE FLOODING RISK. SOILS
ARE VERY DRY AND MAY HAVE A HARD TIME ABSORBING A LOT OF RAIN
FALLING IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. A FLOOD WATCH IS STILL IN
EFFECT FOR DAVIDSON COUNTY AND AREAS SOUTH AND WEST FOR LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
THE TORNADO RISK WILL THIS SYSTEM IS STILL LOW SATURDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW ABUNDANT SRH, HOWEVER,
THEY ALSO SHOW VERY LITTLE TO NO INSTABILITY. BUT TORNADOES FROM
TROPICAL SYSTEMS CAN BE TRICKY AND CAN DEVELOP VERY QUICKLY, EVEN
FROM A SHOWER WITH NO LIGHTNING.
THIS TROPICAL SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH.
HIGHEST WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
HIGHER GUSTS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. NBM GIVES A 30-60% CHANCE OF
GUSTS OVER 45 MPH ACROSS SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1029 PM CDT THU OCT 8 2026
THE REMNANTS OF ISAIAS WILL TRACK NNE OUT OF MIDDLE TN ON SUNDAY
WITH RAIN CHANCES ENDING SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. QUIETER WEATHER
RETURNS THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 80S, AVERAGING 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1215 AM CDT FRI OCT 9 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST THIS TAF CYCLE. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
SHIFT EASTERLY THROUGH THIS MORNING, INCREASING TO 5-10 KTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 87 60 72 60 / 0 30 90 90
CLARKSVILLE 88 59 71 59 / 0 10 100 90
CROSSVILLE 77 54 67 57 / 0 50 80 90
COLUMBIA 88 58 72 60 / 0 70 90 90
COOKEVILLE 81 58 70 60 / 0 20 70 90
JAMESTOWN 79 57 68 59 / 0 20 80 90
LAWRENCEBURG 85 57 71 59 / 0 80 90 90
MURFREESBORO 87 59 74 61 / 0 50 90 90
WAVERLY 85 59 68 60 / 0 20 90 80
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
TNZ024>027-056>062-075-077-079-093>095.
SHORT TERM...CLEMENTS
LONG TERM....CLEMENTS
AVIATION.....BAGGETT
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