123
FXUS64 KOHX 200537
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1237 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1228 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2026
- MEDIUM TO HIGH RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE EACH DAY THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
- RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2+ INCHES THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH SOME
LOCALIZED HIGH AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. SOME MINOR FLOODING CONCERNS.
- TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 958 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2026
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SAG SE ACROSS MIDDLE TN ON
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL MAINTAIN HIGH RAIN AND STORM CHANCES ACROSS
THE AREA, WITH THE BEST COVERAGE AND INTENSITY EXPECTED DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS DIURNAL HEATING COMBINES WITH AMPLE
LOW- LEVEL MOISTURE (PWATS REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE 1.5 INCHES). WHILE
INSTABILITY WILL BE MODEST BEHIND THE INITIAL FRONT PASSAGE,
SHEAR IS WEAK AND ANY TRAINING OR SLOW-MOVING STORMS COULD
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. HIGHEST PROBS FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL SHIFT SOUTH OF I-40 ON THURSDAY AS THE FRONT STALLS
ACROSS NORTHERN MS/AL. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN LIKELY, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-40.
RAIN TOTALS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT COULD ADD ANOTHER 0.5 TO 1.5
INCHES FOR MANY LOCATIONS, CONTRIBUTING TO THE BROADER WET
PATTERN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS,
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S.
NO SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME, THOUGH
BRIEF GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER
STORMS.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 958 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2026
THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH, COMBINED WITH AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING PATTERN ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS, WILL KEEP
AND ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MULTIPLE SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES RIDING ALONG THE FRONT WILL BRING
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, PARTICULARLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENINGS.
RAIN CHANCES REMAIN MEDIUM TO HIGH EACH DAY. FORECAST RAINFALL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
HIGH PROBABILITIES FOR AT LEAST 2 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF MIDDLE
TN. SOME AREAS COULD SEE 3+ INCHES, ESPECIALLY IF TRAINING STORMS
DEVELOP. THIS WILL BRING SOME DROUGHT RELIEF. ON THE FLIP SIDE,
THERE WILL BE SOME CONCERN FOR MINOR FLASH FLOODING IN URBAN AND
POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL, WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOW/MID 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOW IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S. BEYOND THE WEEKEND, MODEL AGREEMENT DECREASES BUT THE OVERALL
PATTERN FAVORS CONTINUED UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WITH DAILY RAIN
CHANCES INTO MID NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1228 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2026
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST,
MAINLY AFTER 12Z AS A FRONT ZONE SETTLES OVER THE AREA. BEFORE THE
RAIN AND STORMS, VFR WILL PREVAIL. VARIABLE CIG/VSBY CONDITIONS
WILL ACCOMPANY STORMS WITH LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY
WINDS. LATER IN THE PERIOD, AFTER 21Z, CONDITIONS WILL TREND
DOWNWARD TO IFR CIGS WITH AREAS OF SHOWERS. WINDS WILL BE
GENERALLY LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD. DIRECTIONS WILL BE VARIABLE
BUT MAINLY SOUTHWEST THROUGH 21Z, THEN MAINLY NORTH NORTHWEST.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 82 63 80 64 / 90 70 70 80
CLARKSVILLE 77 62 77 63 / 90 40 60 80
CROSSVILLE 82 61 77 61 / 90 50 90 70
COLUMBIA 82 63 81 64 / 80 60 80 80
COOKEVILLE 82 62 78 63 / 100 60 90 80
JAMESTOWN 83 60 77 61 / 100 60 90 70
LAWRENCEBURG 81 63 80 64 / 70 70 70 80
MURFREESBORO 84 63 81 64 / 90 70 80 80
WAVERLY 78 63 79 64 / 90 50 70 80
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...CRAVENS
LONG TERM....CRAVENS
AVIATION.....13
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page