356
FXUS64 KOHX 211726
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1226 PM CDT MON SEP 21 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1218 PM CDT MON SEP 21 2026
- TODAY WILL STILL BE HOT, BUT HEAT INDEX VALUES SHOULD STAY
BELOW 105 DEGREES.
- LOW CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS
MIDDLE TN. DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY THREAT.
- MAJOR HEAT RELIEF IS ON THE WAY WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING TO NEAR
NORMAL LEVELS BY WEDNESDAY.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1112 AM CDT MON SEP 21 2026
A STATIONARY FRONT THAT HAS BEEN DRAPED ACROSS THE TN VALLEY FOR
SEVERAL DAYS WILL FINALLY GET A MOVE ON TODAY. EXPECT A
REINVIGORATION OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ALONG THE FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AIDED BY PEAK HEATING. CAMS ARE PAINTING A
PRETTY SPORADIC PICTURE IN TERMS OF SPATIAL COVERAGE OF STORMS
TODAY. THE BOUNDARY IS ORIENTED SW-NE ACROSS TN BUT STORMS WILL BE
PRETTY SCATTERED ACROSS THE STATE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
DCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 1000 J/KG, WHICH IS PLENTY TO PRODUCE A FEW
STRONG DOWNBURSTS UP TO 60 MPH. SHEAR IS PRETTY LACKING, SO DON'T
EXPECT ANY MULTICELLULAR CONVECTION OR ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS. THEY'LL
MOST LIKELY BE SINGLE CELLED MICROBURSTS LIKE WE SEE IN THE
SUMMERTIME.
THE FRONT WON'T MAKE IT THROUGH MIDDLE TN UNTIL TUESDAY, SO POPS
ARE STILL IN THE 40-60% RANGE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THE
WONDERFUL NEWS IS THAT THINGS WILL FINALLY COOL DOWN FOR A
MEANINGFUL PERIOD BEHIND THIS FRONT. TUESDAY IS KIND OF OUR
TRANSITION DAY AS RAIN COOLS THE REGION AND THE COOLER, DRIER AIR
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY STARTS TO BUILD IN. HIGHS FINALLY DROP BELOW
90 DEGREES ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE FIRST TIME IN SEVERAL
WEEKS.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1112 AM CDT MON SEP 21 2026
WEDNESDAY BEGINS OUR FIRST TRUE TASTE OF FALL. COOL, DRY AIR WILL
SEND TEMPERATURES MUCH CLOSER TO NORMAL IN THE LOW 80S FOR THE
REST OF THE WORK WEEK. WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE TO PROMOTE
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND RESULTANT CAA, OVERNIGHT LOWS CONTINUE TO
COOL AND WILL DROP INTO THE 50S BY SATURDAY. POPS REMAIN BELOW
15% THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT START TO CREEP BACK UP EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1218 PM CDT MON SEP 21 2026
SCATTERED STORMS HAVE A LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCE OF IMPACTING
BNA/MQY/CSV/SRB THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
THE NW/N AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE TERMINALS. MVFR/IFR
CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH REDUCED VIS AT CSV/SRB
AS WELL. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN LATE IN THE MORNING
AT BNA/MQY/CKV WITH MVFR CIGS LINGERING AT SRB/CSV.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 68 87 65 83 / 40 20 0 0
CLARKSVILLE 67 85 63 82 / 10 10 0 0
CROSSVILLE 64 82 61 77 / 50 60 20 50
COLUMBIA 68 90 65 86 / 30 30 0 0
COOKEVILLE 66 83 63 78 / 50 40 10 30
JAMESTOWN 65 81 62 76 / 60 50 20 40
LAWRENCEBURG 67 89 64 84 / 50 40 10 10
MURFREESBORO 68 89 65 85 / 40 30 10 10
WAVERLY 68 85 64 81 / 20 10 0 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...DIRKES
LONG TERM....DIRKES
AVIATION.....REAGAN
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