926  
FXUS64 KOHX 220053  
AFDOHX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN  
753 PM CDT TUE MAR 21 2023  
   
..NEW UPDATE  
 
   
UPDATE  
 
ISSUED AT 747 PM CDT TUE MAR 21 2023  
 
LIGHT RAIN IS SLOWLY SPREADING ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE THIS  
EVENING. THE 00Z SOUNDING FROM OHX SHOWS THE RESULTS OF  
CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE ADVECTION THE PAST 12 HOURS, WITH PWAT  
HAVING JUMPED FROM 0.15" AT 12Z TO 0.70" NOW. THE SURFACE MAP  
SHOWS A WARM FROM EXTENDING ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY, WITH  
EXISTING SHOWERS ALL OCCURRING NORTH OF THE FRONT. THE LATEST  
HRRR SHOWS AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS LASTING THROUGH THE NIGHT  
AND TOMORROW MORNING ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE, ALTHOUGH QPF VALUES  
REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW. NO FORECAST CHANGES ARE PLANNED THIS  
EVENING.  
 
 
   
SHORT TERM  
 
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY)  
ISSUED AT 145 PM CDT TUE MAR 21 2023  
 
NOT A HALF BAD DAY ACROSS MIDDLE TN, THOUGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO PILE  
INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF OUR NEXT WEATHER MAKER. RADAR ACROSS THE MID-  
STATE HAS HAD THESE LIGHT RETURNS ALL MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON  
HOURS. HOWEVER WITH 30 DEG DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ACROSS THE AREA,  
RAIN IS FINDING DIFFICULT TO REACH THE GROUND. THIS WILL CHANGE AS  
WE MOVE INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. HEAVIER PRECIP BEING SHOWN  
ACROSS WEST TN WILL FINALLY MAKE ITS PRESENCE FELT IN OUR  
NORTHWEST COUNTIES OVER THE FEW HOURS AND THIS WILL SPREAD ACROSS  
THE REST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. RAINS WILL LAST THROUGH MID-  
AFTERNOON TOMORROW ON THE PLATEAU WITH EXPECTED RAINFALL TOTALS  
AVERAGING AROUND 0.5".  
 
THIS CURRENT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL GET COMPLETELY OUT OF HERE BY  
SUNSET TOMORROW AND WITHOUT A FRONTAL PASSAGE, ALONG WITH A  
STRENGTHENING UPPER RIDGE TO OUR SOUTHEAST, WE ARE GOING TO WARM UP  
CONSIDERABLY ON THURSDAY. MANY SPOTS WILL BE PUSHING 80 DEGREES.  
 
 
   
LONG TERM  
 
(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 145 PM CDT TUE MAR 21 2023  
 
IN ANY OTHER FORECAST PACKAGE, I'D BE TELLING YOU THAT THIS THURSDAY  
WARMUP WOULD BE SETTING THE STAGE FOR A CLASSIC SPRING-TIME  
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. WHILE A FEW STRONG STORMS AND POTENTIALLY  
EVEN SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY  
EVENING, I'M STILL NOT COMPLETELY SOLD ON WIDESPREAD SEVERE  
CHANCES WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM -- BUT I AM SEEING A COUPLE OF  
THINGS IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS THAT I'M PAYING MORE ATTENTION TO.  
FIRST, THERE'S MORE DRY AIR ALOFT AHEAD OF WHAT LOOKS TO BE A LINE  
OF STORMS FRIDAY EVENING. THIS COULD GO TOWARDS INTENSIFYING  
UPDRAFTS, WHICH HAS NOT BEEN SHOWN IN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. LAPSE  
RATES ARE BETTER THAN THEY HAVE BEEN, AS WELL. CAPE IS STILL NOT  
IMPRESSIVE. A FEW HUNDRED J/KG IS STILL THE BEST I SEE, BUT WITH  
THE PROXIMITY OF THE SURFACE LOW TO MIDDLE TN, WE COULD GET SOME  
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING TO HELP OVERCOME A LACK OF INSTABILITY.  
WITH THAT SAID, A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS LIKELY TO MOVE INTO THE  
AREA FRIDAY EVENING AND RIGHT NOW, I LIKE AREAS WEST OF I-65 (AND  
EVEN BETTER SOUTH OF I-40) FOR A CHANCE OF STRONG TO MARGINALLY  
SEVERE STORMS. BIGGEST CONCERN WILL BE DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE  
WINDS AND MAYBE EVEN SOME HAIL. RAINFALL TOTALS ON THE ORDER OF 1  
TO 2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE, WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS IN OUR NORTHWEST  
COUNTIES. IF IT SO HAPPENS THAT THESE TOTALS COME WITH JUST THE  
LINE ON FRIDAY EVENING, SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BECOME  
POSSIBLE, AS WELL. THE CATCH WITH THIS IS THE INCONSISTENCIES OF  
QPF SETUP IN THE MODELS DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. A COUPLE MODELS  
HAVE SHOWERS AND MAYBE FEW STORMS UP IN THE LBTL AREA FRIDAY  
AFTERNOON, BUT MANY LEAVE THE ENTIRE MID-STATE DRY DUE TO  
ATMOSPHERIC CAPPING AHEAD OF THE FRONT. IT'LL BE CLOSE, BUT IF WE  
CAN SPREAD OUT THE RAINFALL AMOUNT OVER 12 HOURS INSTEAD OF 2-3  
HOURS, FLOODING CONCERNS SHOULD BE PRETTY LIMITED. WHAT THIS DOES  
MEAN IS MY POP FORECAST CONSISTS OF A PRETTY TIGHT GRADIENT ACROSS  
THE AREA ON FRIDAY. COORDINATION WITH HUN/MRX ALLOWED ME TO  
ELIMINATE SOME OF THE STRAY WPC QPF ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST  
DURING THE 06-18Z TIME FRAME ON FRIDAY.  
 
(DEEP BREATH)  
 
STORMS SHOULD EXIT MIDDLE TN FRIDAY NIGHT AND IN THEIR WAKE, WE  
DON'T GET A BIG COOL DOWN (BREAK FOR CELEBRATORY CHEERS).  
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN THE 70S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, MAKING FOR A  
VERY NICE WEEKEND. MODELS HAVE BEEN DECENTLY IN AGREEMENT WITH RAIN  
CHANCES RETURNING SUNDAY NIGHT, BUT THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM IS  
STILL QUITE IN DISARRAY. FOR NOW, WE'LL CARRY A DECENT CHANCE FOR  
JUST RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.  
 
 
   
AVIATION  
 
(00Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 643 PM CDT TUE MAR 21 2023  
 
SHOWERS WILL IMPACT MIDDLE TENNESSEE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT AND  
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY END FROM WEST TO  
EAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL DECREASE TO MVFR WEDNESDAY  
MORNING WITH TEMPORARY REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITIES WITH HEAVIER  
SHOWERS. MVFR CIGS MAY IMPROVE TO VFR AT THE END OF THE FORECAST  
PERIOD, BUT WILL LIKELY WAIT UNTIL AFTER THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS  
WILL BE SOUTHERLY FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO  
AROUND 10 KTS BY MID MORNING WITH SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS FROM  
LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  
 
 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS  
 
NASHVILLE 49 65 56 79 / 90 80 0 0  
CLARKSVILLE 47 65 57 78 / 90 60 10 10  
CROSSVILLE 42 57 49 74 / 90 90 10 0  
COLUMBIA 47 64 54 78 / 80 90 0 0  
COOKEVILLE 45 60 53 76 / 90 90 10 0  
JAMESTOWN 42 57 50 75 / 90 90 0 0  
LAWRENCEBURG 47 62 54 78 / 80 90 10 0  
MURFREESBORO 47 62 54 79 / 80 90 0 0  
WAVERLY 45 65 57 77 / 90 60 0 10  
 
 
   
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
NONE.  
 
 
 
 
UPDATE.......ROSE  
SHORT TERM...UNGER  
LONG TERM....UNGER  
AVIATION.....REAGAN  
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