613
FXUS64 KOHX 100532
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1232 AM CDT FRI JUL 10 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1227 AM CDT FRI JUL 10 2026
- A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE CWA UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY.
- THERE'S A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1/5) FOR STRONGER STORMS TO
PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
- DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK, WITH CONTINUING DIURNAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1043 PM CDT THU JUL 9 2026
A DECAYING BOWING SEGMENT MOVING ACROSS KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE IS
LOSING ITS STEAM AS ITS OUTFLOW HAS SURGED AHEAD OF IT. MORE
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, BUT A DECREASE IN INSTABILITY
WILL TURN DOWN THE SEVERE THREAT. THE MAIN CONCERNS WITH ANY
STORM OVERNIGHT WILL BE GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN, WHICH COULD
POSE A FLOOD RISK GIVEN HOW SATURATED THE SOILS ARE FROM RECENT
PRECIPITATION.
TOMORROW, MORE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH ALOFT AND
SUPPORT ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
MORNING. AS A SOUTHERLY 45 KT LLJ RAMPS UP IN THE AFTERNOON, THE
CAMS DEPICT ANOTHER BOWING SEGMENT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA FROM NW
TO SE. AFTERNOON DESTABILIZATION IS QUESTIONABLE, HOWEVER, GIVEN
MORNING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND REMNANT CLOUD COVER. IF SOME
POCKETS OF SUNSHINE ARE ABLE TO PEAK THROUGH AND WE'RE ABLE TO
DESTABILIZE, AMPLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES COULD SUPPORT DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
FLOODING WILL BE A BIGGER CONCERN. BACKBUILDING CELLS ARE
PROBABLE, AND THIS IS CONCERNING GIVEN THAT THE GROUND IS SATURATED
AND PWATS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 2.25-2.5" RANGE, WHICH COULD
CHALLENGE THE CLIMATOLOGICAL DAILY MAX. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY WITH
POTENTIALLY A MID-MORNING LULL BEFORE DIURNAL CONVECTION FIRES OFF
AGAIN.
A WIDESPREAD 2-4" OF RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE. THE ENTIRE AREA REMAINS UNDER A FLOOD WATCH UNTIL SUNDAY
AT 6 PM.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1043 PM CDT THU JUL 9 2026
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD TO OUR WEST, CUTTING OFF A LOW OVER
THE TN VALLEY ON SUNDAY. AT THE SURFACE, A WEST/EAST DRAPED
BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTH AND SUSTAIN CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS, ANY OF WHICH COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN AND
FLOODING CONCERNS. THIS CUTOFF LOW MAY LINGER OVER THE AREA INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AND KEEP HIGHER CHANGES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. DIURNAL ACTIVITY WILL THEN
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK BUT OVERALL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
WILL BE LOWER AS THE UPPER RIDGE EXPANDS OVER THE AREA.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1227 AM CDT FRI JUL 10 2026
AN AREA OF DECAYING RAIN/STORMS CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO MIDDLE
TENNESSEE, THOUGH HAS NEARLY FADED OFF JUST WEST OF BNA. CKV
CONTINUES TO SEE -RA, WITH SHRA/TS TO THE NORTHWEST IN KENTUCKY.
WATCHING THAT ACTIVITY CLOSELY. TAFS ARE PREVAILING VFR WITH SW
WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD, THOUGH IMPACTS WILL COME FROM ANY
CONVECTION. RAIN/TS IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY MOVE SE INTO MIDDLE
TENNESSEE OVERNIGHT INTO THE MORNING HOURS, SO MAINTAINED TEMPOS
AS NEEDED. ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION IS FORECAST LATE IN THE
PERIOD AT ALL TERMINALS, SO STUCK WITH PROB30S FOR NOW UNTIL
TIMING CAN BE NARROWED DOWN. A RELATIVE LULL IN ACTIVITY IS
POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON ALONG SW WIND GUSTS 15-25 KTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 89 72 88 71 / 90 90 80 60
CLARKSVILLE 89 72 88 70 / 90 80 70 50
CROSSVILLE 81 67 81 66 / 90 90 70 60
COLUMBIA 89 72 88 70 / 70 80 80 70
COOKEVILLE 83 69 83 68 / 90 90 80 60
JAMESTOWN 82 67 82 66 / 100 80 80 60
LAWRENCEBURG 87 71 86 69 / 60 80 80 70
MURFREESBORO 89 72 88 70 / 80 90 70 60
WAVERLY 89 71 87 69 / 90 80 80 60
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR TNZ005>011-023>034-
056>066-075-077>080-093>095.
SHORT TERM...CAHILL
LONG TERM....CAHILL
AVIATION.....SIZEMORE
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