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FXUS64 KOHX 300513
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1213 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1211 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2026
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MONDAY.
- A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF LOCALIZED
FLOODING.
- DRIER CONDITIONS NEXT WEEK WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1050 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2026
MIDDLE TN WILL STAY IN THE SOUPY AIR MASS THROUGH SATURDAY. WE HAD
AN ARC OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED STORMS LIFTING ACROSS THE AREA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, ASSOCIATED WITH A BAND OF EXTREMELY
HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES. THIS BAND OF DEEP
MOISTURE WILL PIVOT BACK DOWN ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY, WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS BUBBLING UP AGAIN, ESPECIALLY
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. MODELS SHOW LESS LIFT THAN
FRIDAY AND GENERALLY LOWER COVERAGE OF RAIN. BUT WHERE RAIN FALLS,
IT COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY GIVEN THE MOISTURE LADEN ATMOSPHERE.
ACTIVITY WILL MOSTLY DIE OFF SATURDAY NIGHT AS WE GET INTO ANOTHER
BACKDOOR FRONT SITUATION LIKE WE HAD THURSDAY EVENING WITH DRIER
AIR PUSHING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST.
ON SUNDAY, THE MOISTURE PROFILE INCREASES AGAIN AS ANOTHER WAVE
DRIFTS OVER THE AREA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS.
OUR MESSAGING ABOUT STORMS REMAINS THE SAME AS THE ENTIRE PAST
WEEK- THERE COULD BE SOME STRONG GUSTY STORMS, BUT WE ARE NOT
LOOKING FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS THIS WEEKEND.
ASIDE FROM THE SHOWERS AND STORMS, CONDITIONS WILL STAY MUGGY WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S AND LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 60S.
AREAS OF LATE NIGHT FOG WILL FORM WHERE CLOUD BREAKS DEVELOP.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1050 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2026
THE LAST POCKETS OF DEEP MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BRING A
FINAL OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY BEFORE
STRONGER NORTH FLOW FINALLY KICKS IN WITH MUCH DRIER AND MORE
STABLE AIR STARTING TUESDAY. MIDWEEK WILL BRING A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE WITH PLEASANT TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY LEVELS.
LOW RAIN CHANCES CREEP INTO THE FORECAST LATE WEEK, BUT NOTHING
PERSISTENT LIKE THE PATTERN WE HAVE BEEN IN FOR THE PAST 10 DAYS.
THE EXTENDED FORECAST LATE WEEK SHOWS A MORE TYPICAL EARLY SUMMER
PATTERN WITH WARMING HIGH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 80S AND LOWS
IN THE 60S.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1211 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2026
A MOISTURE-RICH BOUNDARY IS DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING
PERIODS OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS TO THE TERMINALS THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. CIGS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER 15-18Z. MORE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER 20Z
WITH LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES OF IMPACTING THE TERMINALS. WINDS WILL
BE 5 KTS OR LESS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 83 64 83 66 / 50 20 60 50
CLARKSVILLE 82 62 83 65 / 40 10 30 30
CROSSVILLE 77 58 77 60 / 50 10 60 60
COLUMBIA 83 63 83 64 / 50 20 70 40
COOKEVILLE 80 60 80 63 / 50 10 60 60
JAMESTOWN 79 55 81 60 / 40 0 60 60
LAWRENCEBURG 81 64 81 64 / 60 20 70 40
MURFREESBORO 83 63 83 64 / 50 20 70 50
WAVERLY 83 64 84 66 / 50 20 50 30
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION.....REAGAN
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