469
FXUS64 KOHX 010522
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1222 AM CDT MON JUN 1 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1218 AM CDT MON JUN 1 2026
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE MONDAY. A FEW STORMS
WILL BE STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
- THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5) FOR SEVERE STORMS
MONDAY. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS.
- DRY WEATHER WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND LOWER HUMIDITY
STARTS TUESDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1108 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2026
AS OF LATE THIS EVENING, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DISSIPATED ACROSS MIDDLE TN. SKIES REMAIN PARTLY CLOUDY THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT, AND WITH RECENT RAINS, AREAS OF FOG WILL BECOME
INCREASING LIKELY. BY MID MORNING, ANY FOG THAT HAD FORMED WILL
DISSIPATE. AS YOU HAVE LIKELY SEEN BY NOW, THERE IS A RISK FOR
SEVERE WEATHER MONDAY. CAMS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A COMPLEX OR MCS
REMNANTS TO BE ONGOING OVER SE MISSOURI EARLY IN THE DAY. THIS
FEATURE IS FORECAST TO TRACK SE, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
INTENSIFICATION ALONG ITS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY, EVENTUALLY MOVING
THROUGH THE MID STATE BY LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW ABUNDANT INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH MODEST
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR (25-35 KTS). LAPSE RATES COULD BE BETTER THOUGH,
WITH LATEST PROJECTIONS BETWEEN 5.5-6.5 C/KM. THESE CONDITIONS
COULD SUPPORT PULSE LIKE OR LOOSELY ORGANIZED MULTICELL CLUSTERS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE WIND GUSTS. THIS WILL
BE THE GREATEST THREAT WITH THESE STORMS. HEAVY RAINFALL WITH HIGH
PWATS WILL ALSO POSE A RISK FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING, PARTICULARLY
IN AREAS THAT HAVE SEEN REPEATED STORM ACTIVITY. LARGE HAIL AND
TORNADO POTENTIAL REMAIN LOW GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED
CONVECTION AND LIMITED SHEAR.
TIMING OF HIGHEST STORM COVERAGE LOOKS TO FAVOR LATE MORNING
THROUGH MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AS INITIAL COMPLEX MOVES THROUGH. A
SECONDARY ROUND OF AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS IS POSSIBLE WEST OF
I-65 DEPENDING ON OUTLFOW EVOLUTION, BUT THIS REMAINS LOWER
CONFIDENCE. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL DIMINISH MONDAY EVENING AS
ACTIVITY SHIFTS EAST.
BY TUESDAY, AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OUT, ALLOWING DRIER AND
MORE STABLE CONDITIONS TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION. MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS NEAR 80 AND PLEASANT OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S UNDER CLEARING SKIES.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1108 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2026
AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH NEXT MONDAY, PROMOTING A STRETCH OF MOSTLY DRY AND STABLE
WEATHER WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. HIGHS WILL WARM FROM THE LOW 80S
WEDNESDAY INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S BY LATE WEEK, WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. THIS WILL BE A NICE BREAK FROM RECENT WET
AND HUMID CONDITIONS. THE RIDGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN LATE IN THE WEEK,
ALLOWING MOISTURE TO RETURN GRADUALLY. RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND AS A MORE TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME PATTERN RESUMES, WITH HIGHS REMAINING IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1218 AM CDT MON JUN 1 2026
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL LIKELY IMPACT SRB/CSV THROUGH 14Z WITH
MEDIUM CHANCES OF MVFR/IFR CIGS AT BNA/MQY/CKV. MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENTLY SHOWING A COMPLEX OF STORMS MOVING THROUGH MIDDLE
TENNESSEE FROM MID MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. THE EXACT
PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF THE COMPLEX IS UNCERTAIN, BUT
PROBABILITIES ARE HIGHEST CKV WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FURTHER EAST
AT BNA/MQY/SRB/CSV. WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NW/N DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON BUT REMAIN AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS. IF A TERMINAL IS
IMPACTED BY A STORM, WINDS MAY GUST IN EXCESS OF 30 KTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 84 63 81 58 / 70 40 0 0
CLARKSVILLE 83 61 80 56 / 90 40 0 0
CROSSVILLE 79 57 76 52 / 50 20 0 0
COLUMBIA 84 63 80 56 / 70 40 0 0
COOKEVILLE 81 59 78 54 / 60 30 0 0
JAMESTOWN 80 55 77 52 / 30 10 0 0
LAWRENCEBURG 82 63 79 55 / 70 30 0 0
MURFREESBORO 84 63 81 56 / 70 40 0 0
WAVERLY 84 63 80 57 / 90 40 0 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...CRAVENS
LONG TERM....CRAVENS
AVIATION.....REAGAN
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