964
FXUS64 KOHX 210512
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1212 AM CDT TUE APR 21 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1209 AM CDT TUE APR 21 2026
- NO RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THURSDAY. MIDDLE TENNESSEE WILL ENJOY
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
- A MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL EMERGE BY FRIDAY, WITH
RAIN CHANCES LASTING THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND AND INTO THE FOLLOWING
WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1101 PM CDT MON APR 20 2026
TONIGHT SHOULD BE A SLIGHTLY WARMER NIGHT, WITH LOWS IN THE 40S
ACROSS THE AREA. SOME PLACES NEAR THE AL STATE LINE AND THE
TENNESSEE RIVER WILL LINGER NEAR 50 DEGREES.
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE FORECAST INTO THE MID-WEEK
PERIOD, WITH WARMER AIR COMING INTO THE MID-STATE BEGINNING TODAY.
RHS COULD DIP INTO PROBLEM TERRITORY FOR PEOPLE WITH FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS, BUT THE LIGHT WINDS WE WILL SEE TODAY SHOULD MITIGATE THE
NEED FOR ANY PRODUCTS. HIGHS TODAY WILL GET INTO THE MID 70S TO LOW
80S IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE UNDER SOME PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. SAME
FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY, HIGHS IN THE 70S AND 80S WITH SOME LINGERING
CLOUDS THAT GIVE WAY TO A SUNNY DAY IN THE AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1101 PM CDT MON APR 20 2026
OUR NEXT RAIN CHANCE WILL ARRIVE INTO THE WEEKEND, AND DOESN'T LOOK
TO LET UP UNTIL THE NEXT WORK WEEK. SINCE LAST NIGHT, SOME THINGS
HAVE CHANGED IN THE FORECAST. FIRSTLY, PROBABILITIES FOR GREATER
THAN OR EQUAL TO AN INCH OF RAIN OVER THE ENTIRE WEEKEND (FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY) HAVE GONE DOWN ABOUT 10% FROM WHAT THEY WERE 24
HOURS AGO. THIS FOLLOWS THE DRYING TREND WE HAVE SEEN WITH PAST RAIN
EVENTS IN THIS DROUGHT: AS WE GET CLOSER AND GUIDANCE GETS A BETTER
HANDLE ON THE SYSTEM, THE EXPECTED RAIN AMOUNTS DECREASE. AS OF
NOW, PROBABILITIES FOR SEEING GREATER THAN OR EQUAL TO AN INCH IN
QPF THROUGH SUNDAY IS AROUND 30 - 50%.
THE SECOND THING TO CHANGE IS THE INTRODUCTION OF A POSSIBLE
MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT ON SATURDAY. CAN'T SAY ANYTHING CERTAIN
BECAUSE OF IT BEING 5 DAYS OUT, BUT SOME OF THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS
ARE INTERESTING. 2000 J/KG OF CAPE AND 35 KNOTS OF SHEAR IS NOT
SHABBY, BUT I'D LIKE TO SEE SOME BETTER HODOGRAPHS BEFORE MESSAGING
ANYTHING CERTAIN 5 DAYS OUT. CERTAINLY SOMETHING TO MONITOR AS WE
GET INTO THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HERE IN A DAY OR SO, AND SEE IF
THE TREND CONTINUES.
NO MATTER IF THERE IS SEVERE WEATHER OR NOT, THERE WILL BE RAIN
THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND, AND INTO NEXT WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL
STAY IN THE 70S FOR HIGHS BECAUSE OF THIS, BUT WILL INCREASE BACK
INTO THE LOW 80S BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1212 AM CDT TUE APR 21 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 5-10 KTS OUT OF THE SW IN THE MID-MORNING WITH GUSTS
OF 15-20 KTS POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON. THESE GUSTS WILL
LESSEN AFTER SUNSET.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 82 55 82 57 / 0 0 0 0
CLARKSVILLE 80 54 80 56 / 0 0 0 0
CROSSVILLE 75 50 77 51 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBIA 81 52 80 54 / 0 0 0 0
COOKEVILLE 76 51 77 54 / 0 0 0 0
JAMESTOWN 76 51 77 51 / 0 0 0 0
LAWRENCEBURG 79 52 79 54 / 0 0 0 0
MURFREESBORO 81 52 81 54 / 0 0 0 0
WAVERLY 81 54 79 57 / 0 0 0 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...HOLLEY
LONG TERM....HOLLEY
AVIATION.....HOLLEY
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page