178
FXUS64 KOHX 111726
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1126 AM CST SUN JAN 11 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1126 AM CST SUN JAN 11 2026
- BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS DIMINISH THIS EVENING.
- GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- MEDIUM TO HIGH RAIN CHANCES RETURN WEDNESDAY. COLDER
TEMPERATURES MAY ALLOW FOR A CHANGE TO LIGHT SNOW WEDNESDAY
NIGHT, ESPECIALLY FOR THE PLATEAU.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1008 AM CST SUN JAN 11 2026
MUCH COLDER AIR IS IN PLACE WITH CURRENT TEMPERATURE READINGS IN THE
30S. DESPITE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE, FEELS-LIKE TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE
20S TO LOW-30S THANKS TO BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. WIND GUSTS WILL
DIMINISH TOWARDS SUNSET, AND THEN A COLD NIGHT IS IN STORE WITH LOWS
IN THE 20S AREAWIDE. ON MONDAY, SURFACE WINDS TURN SOUTHERLY, AND
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEK. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE MID-40S TO LOW-50S, AND PLENTY
OF SUNSHINE WILL MAKE FOR A NICE DAY.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1008 AM CST SUN JAN 11 2026
THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES ON TUESDAY AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO
THE MID-50S TO LOW-60S WITH SUNNY AND DRY CONDITIONS PERSISTING.
THEN ANOTHER PATTERN CHANGE ARRIVES STARTING WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH DIGS INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. AS THIS SYSTEM
APPROACHES, PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE TO 50-75% ACROSS
THE AREA. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM'S COLD FRONT, TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN WARM IN THE MID-40S TO MID-50S - AKA, TOO WARM FOR SNOW.
MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS THAT PRECIPITATION STARTS OUT AS RAIN
THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE 20S
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WHICH WOULD THEN
ALLOW FOR A CHANGEOVER TO A WINTRY MIX OR SNOW. IT'LL BE AREAS
EAST OF I-65 THAT ARE MOST FAVORED FOR THAT CHANGEOVER TO SNOW
WITH MODEL GUIDANCE GIVING A 45-75% CHANCE OF A DUSTING BY
THURSDAY MORNING. BUT RIGHT NOW, IT'S THE PLATEAU THAT WILL HAVE
TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY FOR MINOR ACCUMULATIONS WITH A 40-60%
CHANCE OF GETTING AT LEAST A HALF AN INCH - WHICH IS AN INCREASE
FROM PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS.
PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN END THURSDAY MORNING, AND THEN CALM
WEATHER CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE FAVORED THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE COLD THURSDAY POST-FRONT WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 30S, BUT
WILL WARM BACK INTO THE 40S ON FRIDAY. BUT THE PATTERN REMAINS
UNSETTLED HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AS ANOTHER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE
EASTERN CONUS. WIDE MODEL DISAGREEMENT IS STILL IN PLACE FOR THIS
SYSTEM AND WHAT IS MEANS FOR MIDDLE TN. RIGHT NOW, THIS SYSTEM LOOKS
TO BRING AT LEAST A LOW CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA THIS
WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1126 AM CST SUN JAN 11 2026
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY FROM THE NNW AROUND 25 KNOTS
THROUGH 22Z THIS AFTERNOON. SOME LOWER CEILINGS ARE HANGING AROUND
ON THE PLATEAU, CAUSING INTERMITTENT DROPS INTO MVFR TERRITORY AT
SRB/CSV. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT BEGINNING
AROUND 0Z MONDAY AND PICK BACK UP AROUND 14Z MONDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 42 26 51 32 / 0 0 0 0
CLARKSVILLE 40 25 50 33 / 0 0 0 0
CROSSVILLE 35 20 45 27 / 10 0 0 0
COLUMBIA 42 24 50 30 / 0 0 0 0
COOKEVILLE 36 22 45 29 / 10 0 0 0
JAMESTOWN 35 20 45 28 / 10 0 0 0
LAWRENCEBURG 41 23 48 29 / 0 0 0 0
MURFREESBORO 41 22 49 28 / 0 0 0 0
WAVERLY 41 25 48 32 / 0 0 0 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...CLEMENTS
LONG TERM....CLEMENTS
AVIATION.....HOLLEY
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