388
FXUS64 KOHX 261732
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1232 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1203 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2026
- STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FROM MONDAY EVENING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH ALL HAZARDS POSSIBLE.
- ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TUESDAY
EVENING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH ALL HAZARDS POSSIBLE.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1141 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2026
SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL ARE INVADING THE AREA FROM THE WEST THIS
AFTERNOON. THERE'S ALSO SOME CLOUDS AROUND DRIVEN UPWARDS BY THE
WARMING OF THE SURFACE. AS THESE CLOUDS DISAPPEAR THIS EVENING, WE
SHOULD HAVE A PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT PERIOD, WITH
TEMPERATURES AROUND THE MID 50S AND LOW 60S. WINDS WILL TURN
SOUTHERLY INTO MONDAY, BRINGING IN MORE WARM AIR TO PRIME THE
ATMOSPHERE AHEAD OF A BUSY NIGHT.
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH AN ATTENDING COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN
TO PUSH INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF IT, A PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH WILL PROVIDE ALL OF THE FORCING WE NEED FOR THE SEVERE
THREAT. DON'T THINK THERE WILL BE MUCH CONVECTION BEFORE SUNSET, BUT
THE INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN, AS SOME GUIDANCE HAS CONVECTION
BEGINNING IN THE AREA AS EARLY AS 7-9PM. LOOKING AT FORECAST
SOUNDINGS, OUR BIGGEST THREAT IS GOING TO BE DAMAGING WINDS, AS
DCAPE IN SIMULATED SOUNDINGS IS BETWEEN 1000 - 1200 J/KG ACROSS THE
SLIGHT RISK AREA. ALL HAZARDS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT THOUGH, WITH A
MARGINAL TORNADO THREAT AND A HAIL THREAT EXTENDING INTO THE
NASHVILLE METRO AREA. MODE OF SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS TO BE A LINE OF
STORMS WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE LINE.
AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE IS WHERE WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR THE
TORNADO THREAT, BUT I BELIEVE THE MAIN WIND THREAT WILL LIE IN THE
ACTUAL LINE OF STORMS IF THE MODE PANS OUT LIKE IT DOES IN GUIDANCE.
SEVERE CHANCES DIMINISH AS THE THREAT MOVES EAST, BUT HOW FAR EAST
THE THREAT MAKES IT IS A QUESTION OF HOW FAST WE LOSE INSTABILITY IN
MIDDLE TENNESSEE.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1141 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2026
THE FUN CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY NIGHT, WHEN THE ACTUAL FROPA COULD
SPAWN ANOTHER SEVERE THREAT. WE ARE UNDER A SLIGHT RISK ONCE AGAIN
FOR SEVERE WEATHER. MAIN HAZARDS WITH THIS ROUND LOOK TO BE DAMAGING
WINDS AND HAIL, WITH A LESSER TORNADO THREAT. UNFORTUNATELY, THIS
THREAT WILL DEPEND ON HOW OVERTURNED THE ATMOSPHERE IS AFTER MONDAY
NIGHT'S SEVERE WEATHER, AND IF IT RECHARGES DURING THE DAY ON
TUESDAY. SOME CAMS THINK IT IS POSSIBLE, BUT THIS IS SOMETHING WE
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR. IN ANY CASE, IT IS BETTER TO BE PREPARED FOR A
SEVERE THREAT BOTH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT THIS WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN POST-FRONTAL, MAKING THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD BEING MUCH COOLER. HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH SOME MORE SMALL RAIN CHANCES IN THE FUTURE. IT LOOKS
LIKE A GOOD RAINFALL AMOUNT IN THE FORECAST CURRENTLY, BUT GIVEN THE
TENDENCY OF GUIDANCE TO TAPER OFF ON QPF AS THE EVENT APPROACHES
LATELY, WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH IT. HOPEFULLY, WE CAN GET SOME RELIEF
IN THE SHORT TERM THOUGH.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1203 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2026
NO VIS OR CIG REDUCTIONS FOR THE TAF PERIOD, JUST LIGHT EASTERLY
WINDS BECOMING VARIABLE/VEERING TO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT. AFTER
DAYBREAK TOMORROW EXPECT SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 15KTS WITH GUSTS TO
25KTS AT CKV, BNA, AND MQY, WITH LESSER SPEEDS AT SRB AND CSV. ANY
DIURNAL CU DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON WILL DISSIPATE AFTER
SUNSET, THEN RETURN AGAIN TOMORROW.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 61 84 65 83 / 0 20 100 70
CLARKSVILLE 59 84 66 83 / 10 30 100 60
CROSSVILLE 54 76 54 72 / 0 10 80 80
COLUMBIA 59 83 63 81 / 0 20 100 70
COOKEVILLE 56 79 58 76 / 0 10 90 80
JAMESTOWN 54 79 55 76 / 0 10 90 80
LAWRENCEBURG 60 81 63 80 / 0 10 90 70
MURFREESBORO 59 83 62 80 / 0 10 90 70
WAVERLY 62 84 65 82 / 10 30 100 70
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...HOLLEY
LONG TERM....HOLLEY
AVIATION.....05
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