976
FXUS64 KOHX 242356
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
656 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2026
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 650 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2026
- MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES FOR RAIN CHANCES EACH DAY OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
- RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2-4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK,
WITH A MEDIUM CHANCE OF AMOUNTS GREATER THAN 4 INCHES IN SOME
AREAS. LOCALIZED FLOODING COULD BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STRONG
STORMS.
- THE THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IS LOW, BUT NOT ZERO. A
COUPLE STORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS. NO ORGANIZED SEVERE
THREATS ARE ANTICIPATED.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 650 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2026
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS STRETCHED ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE
CURRENTLY WHICH IS SERVING AS A LINE OF DELINEATION BETWEEN HIGH
PWS EAST OF I-65 (1.7-1.8") TO SLIGHTLY LOWER PWS WESTWARD
(1.5-1.6"). NONETHELESS, THERE'S PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN THE AREA TO
SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS WHICH ARE MAINLY ACTIVE NEAR THE
SURFACE TROUGH/BOUNDARY NOW PASSING THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
FORECAST AREA. SHOWERS SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AND
PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG ARE POSSIBLE DEPENDING ON HOW CLOUD COVER
WORKS OUT. FOG COULD BE LOCALLY DENSE IN SOME AREAS.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1124 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2026
MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA ONCE AGAIN THIS
MORNING WITH NO LIGHTNING NOTED AT THIS TIME. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
CAN BE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. THE INSTABILITY IS A BIT LOWER TODAY
WITH AROUND 500 TO MAYBE 700 J/KG OF MLCAPE THIS AFTERNOON. SHEAR
VALUES ARE HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY AS SOME STRONGER MID LEVEL WINDS
MOVE THROUGH ON THE SOUTHERLY PERIPHERY OF A SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO LOOK FAIRLY
SATURATED THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. WITH THE LOWER INSTABILITY
AND MEAGER LAPSE RATES, STRONG STORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. CURRENT
PWAT VALUES ARE SITTING IN THE 1.7-1.8" RANGE WHICH IS AROUND THE
DAILY MAX VALUES. STORM MOTIONS WILL BE PROGRESSIVE, SO THE FLASH
FLOOD THREAT IS LOW BUT NO ZERO GIVEN SOILS ARE STARTING TO GET
SATURATED WITH THE RECENT RAINFALL.
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY AS A CLOSED UPPER LOW
DEVELOPS OVER EASTERN TX/LOUISIANA. PWAT VALUES WILL REMAIN NEAR
DAILY MAX VALUES WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED. THE 12Z
HREF 95 PERCENTILE HAVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO AROUND 3" THROUGH 00Z
TUESDAY. THIS SUPPORTS THE IDEA OF MINOR FLOODING ISSUES INSTEAD OF
A WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOOD THREAT.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1124 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2026
THE UPPER LOW WILL LIFT NORTH ON TUESDAY WITH DEEP, MOISTURE-RICH
FLOW IN OUR AREA REMAINING THROUGH THE WEEK AS A BIT OF AN OMEGA
BLOCK PATTERN SETS UP. THIS WILL KEEP THE DAILY MEDIUM TO HIGH RAIN
AND STORM CHANCES IN THE FORECAST. SHEAR WILL REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE
THROUGH THE WEEK WHICH WILL PREVENT ANY ORGANIZED SEVERE THREATS.
THERE IS A LITTLE MORE INSTABILITY TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, SO A
COUPLE OF GUSTY STORMS CAN'T BE RULED OUT. FOR THOSE WHO ARE
ALREADY SICK OF THIS PATTERN, THERE IS A CHANCE SOME DRIER AIR
FINALLY PUSHES INTO THE AREA LATE NEXT WEEKEND LOWERING THE
HUMIDITY AND THE RAIN CHANCES.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 634 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2026
CURRENTLY, ONLY SCATTERED ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING ACROSS MIDDLE
TENNESSEE, AND THE HRRR DOESN'T SUGGEST ANY SORT OF INCREASE IN
ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER, A SURFACE BOUNDARY IS IN THE
PROCESS OF CROSSING THE MID STATE, SO LOOK FOR CEILINGS TO
RAPIDLY DETERIORATE DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE BOUNDARY
TRACKS EASTWARD, AS WELL AS SOME LIGHT FOG AS DEW POINT SPREADS
SHRINK TO NEAR ZERO. CEILINGS AND VSBYS WILL BE SLOW TO RECOVER
TOMORROW, AND WE ALSO EXPECT TO SEE SHOWERS RE-DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON. SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT/CALM THRU THE TAF
PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 64 79 65 82 / 40 60 60 80
CLARKSVILLE 63 79 64 81 / 10 30 60 80
CROSSVILLE 61 74 61 77 / 80 70 60 80
COLUMBIA 63 79 64 81 / 40 70 60 80
COOKEVILLE 62 76 63 79 / 60 60 60 90
JAMESTOWN 60 75 60 79 / 70 60 70 90
LAWRENCEBURG 63 77 64 79 / 40 70 60 80
MURFREESBORO 63 79 64 82 / 50 60 60 80
WAVERLY 64 79 65 81 / 20 50 60 80
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE.......SIZEMORE
SHORT TERM...REAGAN
LONG TERM....REAGAN
AVIATION.....ROSE
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page