986
FXUS64 KOHX 151705
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1205 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1201 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
- UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER CONTINUES TODAY WITH RECORD HIGHS
LIKELY.
- A COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE ON FRIDAY, BRINGING VERY LOW RAIN
CHANCES AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES.
- THERE ARE NO RAIN CHANCES IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE AFTER FRIDAY.
DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE THEREFORE EXPECTED TO WORSEN AT LEAST IN
THE NEAR-TERM.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1018 AM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
A WARM FRONT REMAINS SITUATED TO THE IMMEDIATE NORTH OF MIDDLE
TENNESSEE. THERE ARE A FEW RADAR ECHOES SHOWING UP ACROSS
KENTUCKY, BUT RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE MID STATE ARE NEGLIGIBLE. A
STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BLAST THROUGH THE REGION TOMORROW
AND BRING SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. DESPITE THE STRONG
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT BETWEEN AIR MASSES, ONLY LOW RAIN CHANCES AND
MINUSCULE RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED WITH TOMORROW'S FROPA.
INDEED, THE COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH DRY FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
BUT THE TEMPERATURES THAT AWAIT ON THE OTHER SIDE ARE GOING TO
FEEL MARVELOUS.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1018 AM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
WHILE WE'RE LOOKING AT ONE MORE DAY OF RECORD-BREAKING WARMTH
TODAY, MANY SPOTS ARE LIKELY TO WAKE UP TO FROST SUNDAY MORNING,
MAINLY ALONG THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU AND OTHER TRADITIONAL "COOL
SPOTS" AROUND THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE
THE WEATHER ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP GRADUALLY AFTER THIS WEEKEND, BUT WE
DON'T EXPECT TO STRAY TOO FAR ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS EVEN BY THE
END OF THE WEEK. MEANWHILE, AFTER FRIDAY, THERE ARE NO MORE
WEATHER-PRODUCING SYSTEMS COMING OUR WAY ANY TIME SOON. THEREFORE,
THE WORSENING DROUGHT CONDITIONS THAT WE ARE EXPERIENCING WILL
CONTINUE TO WORSEN, AT LEAST IN THE NEAR-TERM.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1201 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH SCT TO BKN MID-
LEVEL CLOUDS AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS. A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES CKV AROUND 10Z, AND IT WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
EAST ACROSS MIDDLE TN THROUGH THE MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL RESULT
IN GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AROUND 20 TO 25 KNOTS. CLOUDS WILL
ALSO LOWER WITH THE FRONT, BRINGING WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 62 69 46 62 / 0 20 0 0
CLARKSVILLE 57 65 43 62 / 10 20 0 0
CROSSVILLE 62 73 41 54 / 0 20 20 0
COLUMBIA 63 72 44 63 / 0 20 0 0
COOKEVILLE 62 71 44 57 / 0 20 10 0
JAMESTOWN 62 72 42 55 / 0 30 30 0
LAWRENCEBURG 63 73 44 61 / 0 20 0 0
MURFREESBORO 64 72 45 63 / 0 20 0 0
WAVERLY 58 64 45 60 / 0 20 0 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM....ROSE
AVIATION.....CLEMENTS
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