236  
FXUS64 KOHX 191943  
AFDOHX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN  
243 PM CDT FRI JUL 19 2019  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
IN THE SHORT TERM, THE MAIN STORYLINE CONTINUES TO BE THE HEAT. A  
HEAT ADVISORY IS IN PLACE FOR THOSE WEST OF THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU  
UNTIL 7 PM TONIGHT AS MANY AREAS ALREADY HAVE HEAT INDEX VALUES  
IN THE 100S WITH A FEW PLACES AT TO ABOVE 105. T'STORM COVERAGE  
SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED THIS AFTERNOON, BUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR  
TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. TOMORROW AND SUNDAY APPEAR TO BE SIMILAR  
TO TODAY, BUT WITH AN INCREASE IN SHOWER/T'STORM CHANCES EACH DAY.  
AS THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN OVER OUR AREA, WINDS  
WILL BEGIN TO BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY ALLOWING FOR ADDITIONAL  
MOISTURE FLOW INTO MIDDLE TN. THIS INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND  
INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW CONVECTION CHANCES TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY  
EACH DAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. AFTERNOON CONVECTION  
SHOULD HELP OUR TEMPS A BIT, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S TOMORROW  
AND NEAR 90 ON SUNDAY. DEWPOINT TEMPS WILL STILL BE EXTREMELY  
MUGGY THOUGH, ALLOWING HEAT INDEX VALUES TO CREEP NEAR TO JUST  
OVER 100 AGAIN TOMORROW.  
 
LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN DIGGING INTO  
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S., BRINGING A SURFACE FRONT TO OUR AREA  
LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL  
BRING AMPLE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGHOUT ALL OF MIDDLE  
TENNESSEE BEGINNING AS EARLY AS MONDAY MORNING AND LASTING THROUGH  
AS LATE AS TUESDAY MORNING. TIMING WILL STILL NEED TO BE FURTHER  
FINE TUNED IN THE FUTURE, BUT EXPECTING MOST IF NOT ALL OF OUR AREA  
TO SEE SOME RAIN ALONG THIS FRONT. SEVERE WEATHER DOES NOT APPEAR TO  
BE TOO CONCERNING AT THIS TIME, BUT I GUESS STRONG THUNDERSTORMS  
COULD CERTAINLY DEVELOP. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS EVENT IN THE  
COMING DAYS.  
 
BEGINNING TUESDAY AFTERNOON WE WILL TRANSITION INTO A COOLER AND  
MUCH DRIER WEATHER PATTERN WITH HIGHS SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL  
FOR MID TO LATE JULY. LUCKILY THIS PATTERN LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE  
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK; SO GET READY FOR RELATIVELY COMFORTABLE  
TEMPS AND SUNNY SKIES.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.  
 
VFR CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS EXPECTED FOR THE  
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AT ALL SITES. CSV COULD SEE  
A FEW PASSING STORMS THIS AFTERNOON, BUT IMPACTS SHOULD BE SHORT-  
LIVED. LIGHT FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AT MQY AND CSV EARLY SATURDAY  
MORNING AS WINDS CALM, BUT CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AFTER SUNRISE.  
A STEADY STREAM OF HIGH CLOUDS IS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF  
PERIOD WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN CU DEVELOPING AGAIN BY MID MORNING  
TOMORROW.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
NASHVILLE 74 93 73 90 74 / 10 30 20 50 40  
CLARKSVILLE 72 92 72 89 73 / 0 20 10 40 50  
CROSSVILLE 69 86 69 83 70 / 20 40 30 60 40  
COLUMBIA 72 91 72 88 72 / 10 30 20 50 40  
LAWRENCEBURG 72 90 71 87 72 / 10 40 30 50 40  
WAVERLY 72 92 72 89 72 / 10 20 10 40 50  
 

 
   
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR BEDFORD-CANNON-  
CHEATHAM-CLAY-COFFEE-DAVIDSON-DE KALB-DICKSON-GILES-HICKMAN-  
HOUSTON-HUMPHREYS-JACKSON-LAWRENCE-LEWIS-MACON-MARSHALL-MAURY-  
MONTGOMERY-PERRY-ROBERTSON-RUTHERFORD-SMITH-STEWART-SUMNER-  
TROUSDALE-WAYNE-WILLIAMSON-WILSON.  
 

 
 

 
 
DISCUSSION......MACDONALD  
AVIATION........11  
 
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