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FXUS64 KOHX 151745 AAA
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1145 AM CST SAT NOV 15 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1129 AM CST SAT NOV 15 2025
- BREEZY AND WARM ON SATURDAY WITH LOW TO MEDIUM RAIN CHANCES
(10-40%) SATURDAY NIGHT, RAIN AMOUNTS REMAIN VERY LIGHT.
- ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES FAVORING
ABOVE-NORMAL.
- BEST RAIN CHANCES ARE TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH PERIODS OF
SHOWERS AND A FEW T-STORMS. NO SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1111 AM CST SAT NOV 15 2025
IT'S A BREEZY AND WARM MORNING ACROSS THE AREA WITH SOME CLOUDS
OVER THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 60S
WITH A FEW LOCATIONS ALREADY INTO THE 70S. WE'LL BE CLOSE TO THE
RECORD HIGH OF 79 AT NASHVILLE THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT IS
MOVING THROUGH THE MIDWEST CURRENTLY AND WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR
AREA OVERNIGHT. THE CAMS HAVE SOME SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST THIRD OF THE AREA WITH QPF LESS THAN 0.1". MOST OF THE
AREA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY.
SUNDAY WILL BE COOLER WITH NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS AND HIGHS IN THE
60S INSTEAD OF THE 70S. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WITH HIGH
PRESSURE PARKED OVER THE MIDWEST. SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST
OF THE FORECAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE PARKED OVER THE AREA. LOWS WILL
BE IN THE LOW TO MID 30S.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1111 AM CST SAT NOV 15 2025
THE PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE ACTIVE IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST. A
WEAK WAVE LOOKS LIKE IT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY WITH MORE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A RUMBLE OF THUNDER.
THE WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL RAMP UP IN RESPONSE TO A SURFACE LOW
THAT WILL MOVE FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST WITH TEMPERATURES ON
TUESDAY REBOUNDING BACK INTO THE 70S. ONCE THE WAVE MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA OUR UPPER FLOW WILL TURN ZONAL TO SOUTHWESTERLY AS WE
PROGRESS INTO MID TO LATE WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WARM
WITH MORE RAIN OPPORTUNITIES. MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE
EJECTION OF THE DEEP TROUGH IN THE SOUTHWEST WHICH IS MAKING IT
HARD TO PIN DOWN TIMING OF POPS AND DETERMINING IF THERE WILL BE
ANY HAZARDOUS WEATHER LOCALLY ASSOCIATED WITH THAT TROUGH. WE'LL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE TRENDS, BUT RIGHT NOW, THERE IS NOTHING
JUMPING OFF THE MAPS AT ME IN REGARDS TO FLOODING OR SEVERE
WEATHER.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1129 AM CST SAT NOV 15 2025
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 02Z BEFORE A COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH AFTER 06Z BRINGING GUSTY NORTHWEST TO
NORTHERLY WINDS. KCSV AND KSRB HAVE LOW CHANCES FOR MVFR CEILINGS
BETWEEN 10Z-16Z WITH -RA POSSIBLE AT KCSV AS WELL. CLEAR SKIES AND
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS AFTER 16Z.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 78 54 65 35 / 0 10 0 0
CLARKSVILLE 77 51 63 33 / 0 10 0 0
CROSSVILLE 68 53 60 30 / 0 30 0 0
COLUMBIA 77 56 67 36 / 0 10 0 0
COOKEVILLE 71 53 61 32 / 0 40 0 0
JAMESTOWN 68 51 59 32 / 0 50 0 0
LAWRENCEBURG 76 56 67 33 / 0 10 0 0
MURFREESBORO 76 56 66 33 / 0 20 0 0
WAVERLY 75 51 63 37 / 0 10 0 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...REAGAN
LONG TERM....REAGAN
AVIATION.....HURLEY
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