543
FXUS64 KOHX 272335
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
635 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2026
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 628 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2026
- MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
AT TIMES THROUGH SUNDAY.
- A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF, LOCALIZED
FLOODING EACH AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
- DRY AIR WITH NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 628 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2026
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS EVENING WITH SCATTERED
CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES CLIMBED INTO THE UPPER 80S THIS AFTERNOON,
BNA HIT 88 DEGREES. TONIGHT, TEMPERATURES COOL INTO THE UPPER 60S
WHILE CLOUD COVER REMAINS SCATTERED. FOG WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
LIKELY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH THE PRESENTS OF ABUNDANT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FROM RECENT RAINFALL. THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY
DENSE FOG ON THOSE MORNING COMMUTES THURSDAY SO MAKE SURE TO USE
EXTRA CAUTION. OTHERWISE, FOG DISSIPATES THROUGH THE MORNING AND
SIMILAR CONDITIONS PERSIST, WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WHILE TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE MID 80S.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1130 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2026
MOIST AIR REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WITH A VERY SLUGGISH
WEATHER PATTERN THAT HAS BROUGHT NUMEROUS SHOWERS SINCE LAST
WEDNESDAY. THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE GENERALLY
SCATTERED (MEDIUM HIT AND MISS COVERAGE) TODAY. THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH DIURNAL INSTABILITY FOR A COUPLE OF STRONG STORMS WITH
HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY WINDS, BUT WE ARE NOT LOOKING FOR ANY
ORGANIZED STORMS OR WIDESPREAD SEVERE THREAT. THE COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE LOWER FOR OUR NORTHEAST HALF ON
THURSDAY AS A BACKDOOR FRONT DIPS INTO THE AREA WITH SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOSTLY DIE OFF AT NIGHT, BUT
THAT WILL SET THE STAGE FOR AREAS OF DENSE FOG.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1130 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2026
THE SLUGGISH OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN WILL STAY WITH US GOING INTO THE
WEEKEND. WE WILL KEEP THE HUMID CONDITIONS AS A COUPLE OF WAVES
WITH DEEP MOISTURE GRADUALLY PIVOT ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL
INCREASE RAIN COVERAGE AGAIN AREA-WIDE FOR LATE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. HIGH PW VALUES SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR SOME MORE LOCAL
HEAVY DOWNPOURS FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
SCATTERED SHOWER CHANCES LINGER INTO SUNDAY, BUT WE WILL BEGIN TO
FEEL THE BEGINNING OF A PATTERN CHANGE AS THE TROUGH OVER THE
EAST COAST DEEPENS AND FORCES DRY NORTH FLOW INTO TN. DRY
CONDITIONS WILL TAKE HOLD AS WE GO INTO THE NEXT WORK WEEK. WE
WILL ENJOY SOME DEEP BLUE SKIES AGAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL LEVELS, EXCEPT SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL AT NIGHT.
HUMIDITY WILL DROP OFF TO COMFORTABLE LEVELS. HEADING INTO LATE
NEXT WEEK, WE WILL HAVE GRADUALLY INCREASING TEMPERATURES AS WE
MOVE INTO A MORE TYPICAL EARLY SUMMER PATTERN.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 621 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2026
THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE REMAINS QUITE HUMID, BUT WE
ACTUALLY FIND OURSELVES UNDER WEAK RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT, SO POPS THE NEXT 24+ HRS ARE VERY LOW AND THUS WE'VE LEFT
RAIN/STORM PROBABILITIES OUT OF THE TAFS. HOWEVER, WE DO EXPECT
WIDESPREAD RADIATION FOG OVERNIGHT AS DEW POINT SPREADS SHRINK TO
NEAR ZERO AND THE CALM WINDS AND WET GROUND CONTRIBUTE TO FOG
PRODUCTION DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 68 84 66 81 / 30 30 10 60
CLARKSVILLE 67 83 65 80 / 10 30 0 50
CROSSVILLE 64 79 60 78 / 30 40 0 60
COLUMBIA 67 83 65 81 / 20 40 30 70
COOKEVILLE 66 81 62 80 / 40 30 10 60
JAMESTOWN 63 81 58 80 / 50 30 0 40
LAWRENCEBURG 67 82 65 79 / 20 40 30 70
MURFREESBORO 67 84 64 82 / 20 40 10 70
WAVERLY 68 83 66 81 / 20 40 30 60
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE.......CRAVENS
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION.....ROSE
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