508
FXUS64 KOHX 081742
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1142 AM CST THU JAN 8 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1130 AM CST THU JAN 8 2026
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL COULD CAUSE FLOODING FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
MORNING.
- LOW CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY MORNING INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT, BUT A FEW STRONG STORMS CAN'T BE RULED OUT.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1018 AM CST THU JAN 8 2026
OVERCAST CONDITIONS DOMINATE MIDDLE TENNESSEE CURRENTLY, WITH CLOUDS
EXPECTED TO STICK AROUND. THAT BEING SAID, I'M UNCERTAIN WE WILL
REACH THE TEMPERATURES DISCUSSED IN PREVIOUS FORECASTS TODAY. HIGHS
HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED DOWNWARD, AND ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE 60S
TODAY. WITH THE INTENSIFYING TROUGH APPROACHING US FROM THE WEST,
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY TODAY AND OVERNIGHT.
A STATIONARY FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW WILL
TRANSITION INTO A WARM FRONT OVERNIGHT AND PUSH NORTH THROUGH THE
AREA. WITH MIDDLE TENNESSEE IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THIS COMPLEX
SYSTEM BY FRIDAY MORNING, THUNDERSTORMS ARE A LIKELY SCENARIO IN THE
MORNING DUE TO INCREASING ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY BEFORE THE REAL
FORCING KICKS IN AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES. IN FACT, WITH MORE
RECENT GUIDANCE, SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS COULD BE IN THE MORNING
WITH THE FIRST WAVE. THIS IS NOT TO SAY THAT THE AFTERNOON THREAT
ISN'T A REAL ONE, JUST AN INTERESTING SHIFT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS.
AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND ENTERS THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT, THE SEVERE RISK INCREASES ONCE AGAIN. THE OVERALL
THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS REMAINS ON THE LOWER SIDE COMPARED TO THE
FLASH FLOOD THREAT, DUE TO STRUGGLING LAPSE RATES AND LIMITED
INSTABILITY. TRENDS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A DECREASE IN THE OVERALL
THREAT, BUT SHEAR AND THE LLJ REMAIN POSITIVE FACTORS FOR SEVERE
WEATHER. DUE TO THE SHEAR AND THE LLJ, ISOLATED TORNADOES LOOK TO BE
ONE OF THE MAIN HAZARDS TOMORROW. IT IS NOT THE LARGEST THREAT,
HOWEVER.
A SECONDARY THREAT TO MIDDLE TENNESSEE THAT CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN
GUIDANCE IS HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE FLOODING. THE SCENARIO BEING
PUT OUT IN SOME OF THE GUIDANCE CURRENTLY IS DEEP-LAYER FLOW IN THE
ATMOSPHERE BEING PARALLEL TO THE FRONT IN THE MID-STATE, WHICH IS
CLASSIC SYNOPTIC SETUP FOR FLASH FLOODING. THESE STORMS ARE
FORECASTED TO BE SLOW MOVERS, AND TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREA DUMPING
RAINFALL, AND CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE AS THE GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW THIS PATTERN SETTING UP. RIGHT NOW, LOOKING AT UP
TO 3.5 INCHES OF RAINFALL BY SATURDAY MORNING IN THE MID-STATE, WITH
LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS A VERY REAL POSSIBILITY. REMEMBER TO TURN
AROUND, DON'T DROWN IF YOU ENCOUNTER FLOODED ROADWAYS, AND HAVE A
PLAN IN PLACE IF SEVERE OR FLOOD WARNINGS ARE ISSUED FOR YOUR
AREA.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1018 AM CST THU JAN 8 2026
SATURDAY WILL TURN A NEW LEAF IN THE PATTERN WITH COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS MOVING IN POST FRONTAL. HIGHS WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY
COOLER ON SUNDAY, AND STAY AROUND AVERAGE (OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
AVERAGE) THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK. A CALMER PERIOD IS
EXPECTED, WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF MORE RAIN SHOWERS MID-WEEK NEXT
WEEK, BUT CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY LOW IN TERMS OF SPECIFICS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1130 AM CST THU JAN 8 2026
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS HEADED TOWARD MIDDLE TENNESSEE,
AND ALREADY WE'RE EXPERIENCING INCREASING SURFACE WINDS AND
SPORADIC MVFR CEILINGS. LOOK FOR SURFACE AND NEAR-SURFACE WINDS
TO CONTINUE INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH AS WE HEAD INTO THE
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO BEGIN DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY FRIDAY AS A LINE OF PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION PUSHES THROUGH
THE REGION. HOWEVER, WE'VE LEFT OUT MENTION OF TS/CBS AS THE
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS IS QUITE SMALL; SHOWERS WILL BE THE
PRIMARY WEATHER MODE. ALSO, WE'VE INCLUDED LLWS REMARKS WHERE THE
CRITERIA ARE MET.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 67 63 71 52 / 10 60 90 90
CLARKSVILLE 68 62 69 49 / 10 80 60 80
CROSSVILLE 60 57 63 54 / 0 30 100 100
COLUMBIA 65 62 70 53 / 10 60 80 100
COOKEVILLE 65 59 65 54 / 0 40 100 100
JAMESTOWN 61 57 64 52 / 0 20 100 100
LAWRENCEBURG 66 62 68 54 / 10 60 90 100
MURFREESBORO 68 62 69 54 / 10 50 90 100
WAVERLY 68 61 68 50 / 10 90 60 90
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
TNZ008>011-027>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095.
SHORT TERM...HOLLEY
LONG TERM....HOLLEY
AVIATION.....ROSE
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page