016
FXUS64 KOHX 201740
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1240 PM CDT SUN SEP 20 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1224 PM CDT SUN SEP 20 2026
- A HEAT ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH 7 PM FOR MOST OF MIDDLE
TENNESSEE. WHILE IT WILL REMAIN WARM MONDAY, THE HEAT WILL BEGIN
TO EASE TUESDAY.
- LOW RAIN/STORM CHANCES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHER RAIN/STORM
CHANCES SPREAD AREAWIDE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A LOW RISK
FOR STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS EACH AFTERNOON.
- MAJOR HEAT RELIEF IS ON THE WAY WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING NEAR
NORMAL LEVELS STARTING WEDNESDAY.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1101 AM CDT SUN SEP 20 2026
IT WASN'T MUCH, BUT A WEAK WAVE BROUGHT A LITTLE SHOWER TO A FEW
SPOTS IN CENTRAL MIDDLE TN THIS MORNING. IT WAS GREAT TO HEAR THE
PITTER-PATTER OF RAIN DROPS ON THE WINDOW SILL -- EVEN IF IT WAS
ONLY FOR 30 SECONDS. ANECDOTALLY, WE'VE ONLY HAD 0.71" OF RAIN HERE
AT THE OFFICE THE ENTIRE MONTH OF SEPTEMBER. I KNOW. THERE ARE SOME
SPOTS THAT HAVEN'T EVEN SEEN THAT MUCH, BUT SOME RELIEF IS ON THE
WAY, BOTH WITH THE RAIN AND THE TEMPERATURES.
STARTING WITH THE REST OF TODAY, WE WILL MAINTAIN THE CURRENT HEAT
ADVISORY THROUGH 7 PM. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO
REACH INTO THE UPPER 90S FOR MUCH OF THE MID-STATE, INCLUDING HEAT
INDEX VALUES OF 100-107. MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY, PORTIONS OF THE MID-
STATE, ESPECIALLY THE PLATEAU AND OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES, AREN'T
UNDER THE STRONGEST SUBSIDENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THIS
MEANS LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON WITH
A VERY LOW RISK OF STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH ANY STORM. THERE ARE
SOME INDICATIONS THAT A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS COULD LINGER INTO THE
OVERNIGHT, BUT I'M NOT CONCERNED ABOUT ANYTHING SEVERE.
WITH THE END OF THE HEAT ADVISORY, I'D LIKE TO SAY WE'RE GOING TO
COOL OFF QUICKLY, BUT IT'S GOING TO TAKE A COUPLE OF DAYS. MONDAY
WILL BE ANOTHER WARM ONE, BUT WITH EVERYBODY EXPECTED TO BE BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA, WE AREN'T GOING TO EXTEND THE CURRENT ADVISORY.
JUST KNOW WE DO HAVE ONE MORE DAY AHEAD OF US. HOWEVER, THE RIDGE
RESPONSIBLE FOR THESE EXCRUCIATING LATE-SUMMER TEMPERATURES IS
EXPECTED TO START BREAKING DOWN TOMORROW. WITH THE APPROACH OF A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY TOMORROW NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING, WE'RE
GOING TO CARRY A MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM
MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO
DISPLAY A LOW RISK (NOT ZERO) OF GUSTY WINDS WITH STORMS DURING THE
WARMEST PART OF MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WHILE MEAGER, SOME SHEAR WILL BE
AVAILABLE TO HELP WITH CLUSTER OF STORMS, ESPECIALLY MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY. NOT LOOKING FOR ANY EXCEPTIONAL ORGANIZATION, BUT IF
YOU HAVE OUTDOOR PLANS EITHER DAY, JUST REMAIN WEATHER AWARE.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1101 AM CDT SUN SEP 20 2026
THE PASSAGE OF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE IT! THE DAY WE'VE ALL
BEEN WAITING FOR: RELIEF FROM THE HEAT. WHILE SOME LOW 90S WILL BE
POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES, BY
WEDNESDAY, EVERYONE WILL BE INTO THE 70S (PLATEAU) AND 80S -- JUST
IN TIME FOR THE OFFICIAL ARRIVAL OF FALL. LOOK FOR DRY CONDITIONS
THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING RIGHT AROUND NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. WOOO!
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT SUN SEP 20 2026
LARGELY A PERSISTENCE FORECAST FOR MIDDLE TN. SCATTERED CU DECK
WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS AND LIGHT SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS. THERE IS A
LOW CHANCE FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS TODAY, BUT THE POPS
ARE BELOW 30% FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. DID ADD A PROB30 FOR
BNA TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS CONVECTIVE COVERAGE LOOKS BETTER ALONG
THE COLD FRONT AFTER 18Z MONDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 75 97 69 88 / 10 20 50 40
CLARKSVILLE 73 96 68 86 / 10 10 50 20
CROSSVILLE 67 88 64 83 / 20 30 40 80
COLUMBIA 73 98 69 91 / 10 20 40 50
COOKEVILLE 71 91 67 84 / 20 30 50 70
JAMESTOWN 69 89 65 82 / 20 40 40 70
LAWRENCEBURG 71 95 67 90 / 20 20 40 50
MURFREESBORO 73 97 68 91 / 20 20 30 50
WAVERLY 74 95 68 86 / 0 20 50 30
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TNZ005>010-023>033-
056>065-075-077-078-093>095.
SHORT TERM...UNGER
LONG TERM....UNGER
AVIATION.....DIRKES
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