532
FXUS64 KOHX 091709
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1209 PM CDT SUN AUG 9 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1207 PM CDT SUN AUG 9 2026
- HEAT RISK WILL CLIMB TO MAJOR LEVEL (3 OUT OF 4) THIS WEEK.
HEAT ADVISORIES MAY BE ISSUED WEST OF THE PLATEAU.
- LOW TO MEDIUM (10 TO 50 PERCENT) CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
EACH AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. LOWEST CHANCES WILL BE IN THE
NORTHWEST (CLARKSVILLE AREA) WITH HIGHEST CHANCES ALONG THE
CUMBERLAND PLATEAU. HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH LOCAL FLASH FLOODING
WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN.
- A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS EACH DAY MAY PRODUCE WIND GUSTS OF
40 TO 50 MPH AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. THIS COULD BRING DOWN A
FEW LIMBS AND CAUSE SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES. WIDESPREAD SEVERE
STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
-
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1207 PM CDT SUN AUG 9 2026
WE SAW THE PEAK COVERAGE OF RAIN AND STORMS YESTERDAY. AS
ADVERTISED, SOME PEOPLE GOT LITTLE OR NO RAIN WHILE SOME HAD MUCH
TOO MUCH, RESULTING IN LOCAL FLASH FLOODING. ALTHOUGH COVERAGE
WILL TREND DOWN TODAY AND MONDAY, THE THREAT FOR LOCAL FLOODING
WILL CONTINUE AS DEW POINTS REMAIN MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 70S AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN WELL ABOVE AVERAGE. SCATTERED
SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY WILL BE FOCUSED MAINLY OVER OUR SOUTHERN
AND PLATEAU AREAS TODAY WHERE POPS WILL BE IN THE 30 TO 50
PERCENT RANGE. OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES WILL HAVE THE LOWEST
CHANCES, BUT NOT ZERO. LIKE THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS, THE ACTIVITY
WILL DIE OFF QUICKLY WITH SUNSET LEAVING CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR
OVERNIGHT FOG.
COVERAGE OF RAIN WILL BE A LITTLE LOWER MONDAY AS WE START TO TURN
UP THE HEAT UNDER A BUILDING SOUTHERN RIDGE. HEAT INDEX VALUES
WILL BE BORDERLINE CRITERIA FOR ISSUANCE OF A HEAT ADVISORY.
SINCE WE ARE NOW IN AUGUST AND HAVE HAD SO MANY HEAT HEADLINES
THIS SUMMER, WE WILL HOLD OFF ON THAT ISSUANCE FOR NOW. A BIG
CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR DANGEROUS HEAT TO BUILD THROUGH THE
WEEK, PERHAPS EVEN MORE THAN OUR CURRENT FORECAST INDICATES. IF
WE END UP ISSUING HEAT HEADLINES TOMORROW OR MORE LIKELY TUESDAY,
THEY MAY NEED TO EXTEND THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1100 AM CDT SUN AUG 9 2026
WE SAW THE PEAK COVERAGE OF RAIN AND STORMS YESTERDAY. AS
ADVERTISED, SOME PEOPLE GOT LITTLE OR NO RAIN WHILE SOME HAD MUCH
TOO MUCH, RESULTING IN LOCAL FLASH FLOODING. ALTHOUGH COVERAGE
WILL TREND DOWN TODAY AND MONDAY, THE THREAT FOR LOCAL FLOODING
WILL CONTINUE AS DEW POINTS REMAIN MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 70S AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN WELL ABOVE AVERAGE. SCATTERED
SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY WILL BE FOCUSED MAINLY OVER OUR SOUTHERN
AND PLATEAU AREAS TODAY WHERE POPS WILL BE IN THE 30 TO 50
PERCENT RANGE. OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES WILL HAVE THE LOWEST
CHANCES, BUT NOT ZERO. LIKE THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS, THE ACTIVITY
WILL DIE OFF QUICKLY WITH SUNSET LEAVING CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR
OVERNIGHT FOG.
COVERAGE OF RAIN WILL BE A LITTLE LOWER MONDAY AS WE START TO TURN
UP THE HEAT UNDER A BUILDING SOUTHERN RIDGE. HEAT INDEX VALUES
WILL BE BORDERLINE CRITERIA FOR ISSUANCE OF A HEAT ADVISORY.
SINCE WE ARE NOW IN AUGUST AND HAVE HAD SO MANY HEAT HEADLINES
THIS SUMMER, WE WILL HOLD OFF ON THAT ISSUANCE FOR NOW. A BIG
CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR DANGEROUS HEAT TO BUILD THROUGH THE
WEEK, PERHAPS EVEN MORE THAN OUR CURRENT FORECAST INDICATES. IF
WE END UP ISSUING HEAT HEADLINES TOMORROW OR MORE LIKELY TUESDAY,
THEY MAY NEED TO EXTEND THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1100 AM CDT SUN AUG 9 2026
A STRONG SOUTHERN RIDGE WILL BRING HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE WEEK. SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES WILL BE AT THEIR LOWEST
TUESDAY, MOSTLY LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. BUT, EVEN WITH LOW POPS,
ANY STORMS COULD BE IMPACTFUL WITH TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND GUSTY
WINDS.
THE RIDGE MAY WEAKEN SLIGHTLY WITH INCREASED STORM COVERAGE
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, BUT JUST HOW MUCH THE RIDGE WEAKENS IS
UNCERTAIN. UNFORTUNATELY, IT LOOKS LIKE THE RIDGE WILL PUMP UP EVEN
STRONGER NEXT WEEKEND, PERHAPS SENDING ACTUAL TEMPS TOWARD 100
DEGREES IN SOME AREAS. ALTHOUGH IT LOOKS LIKE WE CAN HOLD OFF ON
HEAT HEADLINES FOR MONDAY, WE WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY NEED TO
HIGHLIGHT THE HEAT DANGER AT SOME POINT THROUGH THE COMING WEEK
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. MOST DAYS WILL REACH LEVEL 3 OUT OF 4 WHICH IS
CALLED "MAJOR". SEE HEAT.GOV FOR MORE INFORMATION.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1207 PM CDT SUN AUG 9 2026
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS A MUCH MORE MODEST THIS AFTERNOON THAN
YESTERDAY ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE, SO THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES
ARE QUITE A BIT REDUCED. HAVE INCLUDED PROB30 REMARKS ONLY AT
KCSV AND KSRB TO ACCOUNT FOR LOW TO MEDIUM STORM CHANCES.
ELSEWHERE, POPS ARE TOO LOW TO WARRANT MENTION IN THE TAFS. ALSO
EXPECT LIGHT RADIATION FOG MAINLY ALONG THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU
EARLY MONDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 74 93 75 94 / 10 10 0 10
CLARKSVILLE 73 94 75 95 / 10 10 0 10
CROSSVILLE 68 86 69 86 / 20 30 20 40
COLUMBIA 72 93 74 94 / 10 20 10 20
COOKEVILLE 70 88 71 88 / 10 30 10 40
JAMESTOWN 68 87 70 87 / 10 20 10 40
LAWRENCEBURG 71 90 73 91 / 10 30 10 30
MURFREESBORO 72 93 74 93 / 10 30 0 30
WAVERLY 72 93 74 93 / 10 10 0 10
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION.....ROSE
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page