526
FXUS64 KOHX 052327
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
627 PM CDT WED AUG 5 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 625 PM CDT WED AUG 5 2026
- SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY. HIGHEST CHANCES
OVER THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU WITH LOW CHANCES WEST OF THE
PLATEAU.
- NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED, BUT A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE
GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
- GRADUALLY GETTING WARMER AND MORE HUMID WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES
CLIMBING OVER 100 MOST DAYS THIS WEEKEND THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1120 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2026
THE KEY MESSAGES TELL IT ALL WITH AN UNREMARKABLE FORECAST FOR
TYPICAL AUGUST WEATHER.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT HAS BEEN SET UP FOR SEVERAL DAYS OVER THE
EASTERN PART OF THE STATE WILL KEEP SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED STORMS GOING TODAY AND AGAIN THURSDAY, ESPECIALLY ALONG
AND NEAR THE PLATEAU. NO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH WEAK
LAPSE RATES. MOST ACTIVITY WILL DIE OFF WITH SUNSET. AREAS OF FOG
WILL FORM OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVE RAIN.
OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1120 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2026
THE UPPER LOW WILL WEAKEN AND GET SWEPT AWAY BY THE WEEKEND. WE
WILL THEN BE WITHIN A BRIDGE ZONE BETWEEN A STRONG BERMUDA HIGH
AND A STRONG, HOT WESTERN RIDGE. THIS WILL KEEP OUR TEMPERATURES
SEASONABLY WARM - MAYBE A DEGREE OR 2 ABOVE NORMAL. THIS PATTERN
WILL ALSO KEEP CONDITIONS HUMID WITH POP-UP SHOWERS AND STORMS
EACH AFTERNOON. FOR THE MOST PART, CHANCES/COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE
TO BE HIGHEST (30 TO 60 PERCENT) FOR THE PLATEAU AND GENERALLY
LOW (20 TO 30 PERCENT) FOR AREAS WEST OF THE PLATEAU. NO SEVERE
STORMS ARE EXPECTED, BUT GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL
OCCUR WITH SOME STORMS. HEAT RISK LEVELS WILL BE IN THE 2-3 RANGE
(OUT OF 4) WITH PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES PUSHING MOSTLY INTO THE
100-105 RANGE.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT WED AUG 5 2026
VCTS NEAR BNA AND MQY THROUGH ~01Z, THEN GRADUAL CLEARING THIS
EVENING WITH LIGHT, VARIABLE WINDS. TAFS FOR BNA, MQY, AND CKV ARE
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH WINDS PREVAILING S TO SW TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AT 5-7 KTS, RA/TS CHANCES ONLY ~10%.
SRB AND CSV HAVE MENTION OF PATCHY FOG AGAIN TONIGHT, BUT OVERALL
CONFIDENCE IN IFR VIS IS LOW AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 72 92 74 92 / 20 10 0 30
CLARKSVILLE 70 92 73 93 / 10 10 10 20
CROSSVILLE 67 83 67 84 / 30 70 10 70
COLUMBIA 71 92 73 92 / 20 10 0 40
COOKEVILLE 69 85 70 86 / 20 40 10 50
JAMESTOWN 68 84 68 85 / 20 50 10 60
LAWRENCEBURG 70 89 71 90 / 20 10 10 40
MURFREESBORO 72 91 73 92 / 20 20 10 30
WAVERLY 70 92 73 93 / 10 0 10 20
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION.....SIZEMORE
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