063
FXUS64 KOHX 131704
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1204 PM CDT SUN SEP 13 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1200 PM CDT SUN SEP 13 2026
- HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR TUESDAY FOR MOST OF MIDDLE
TENNESSEE WEST OF THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU. HEAT INDICES UP TO
109F ARE EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON.
- RAIN CHANCES THIS WEEK ARE NEGLIGIBLE. THE NEXT RAIN CHANCES
AREN'T EXPECTED UNTIL THE WEEKEND.
- WE SHOULD START TO SEE A GRADUAL COOL-DOWN LATE NEXT WEEKEND AND
EARLY THE FOLLOWING WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1109 AM CDT SUN SEP 13 2026
HIGH PRESSURE HAS RE-ASSERTED ITSELF AT THE SURFACE AND ESPECIALLY
ALOFT, WITH A BROAD UPPER RIDGE CIRCULATING ALMOST ON TOP OF US.
SO THE ATMOSPHERE TODAY IS MUCH LESS UNSTABLE AND ALSO
SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER, AND RAIN CHANCES ARE THEREFORE CLOSE TO
ZERO. THAT'S THE WAY THINGS ARE GOING TO REMAIN FOR AWHILE.
MEANWHILE, THE UNRELENTING HEAT IS...WELL..UNRELENTING. DESPITE A
RELATIVELY COOL START TO THE DAY, AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE
LIKELY TO WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S MOST AREAS WEST OF THE
CUMBERLAND PLATEAU. AND EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE UP JUST
AHEAD.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1109 AM CDT SUN SEP 13 2026
A HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR TUESDAY FOR MOST OF OUR NON-
PLATEAU COUNTIES. HEAT INDICES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH OR EXCEED
105F FOR A LARGE SWATH OF THE MID STATE. THE ADVISORY MAY NEED TO
BE EXTENDED THROUGH WEDNESDAY, BUT THAT IS MUCH LESS CERTAIN. SO
FOR NOW, WE'RE FOCUSED ON TUESDAY'S EXCESSIVE HEAT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL KEEP ANY WEATHER-PRODUCING SYSTEMS AWAY FROM THE REGION FOR
MOST OF NEXT WEEK. THE INDIVIDUAL MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW
A SURFACE BOUNDARY DROPPING SOUTHWARD TOWARD MIDDLE TENNESSEE BY
WEEK'S END, SO WE ARE INTRODUCING AT LEAST LOW POPS THIS WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A BIG COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE RIGHT AROUND THE TIME OF THE AUTUMNAL EQUINOX.
HOPEFULLY, THIS WILL BE THE LAST WEEK FOR EXCESSIVE HEAT. ALL
INDICATIONS ARE THAT COOLER WEATHER IS ON THE WAY JUST IN TIME FOR
THE FIRST DAY OF AUTUMN.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT SUN SEP 13 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH LIGHT
NORTHERLY WINDS. ONLY AVIATION CONCERN IS PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT
ACROSS THE PLATEAU WHICH MAY LEAD TO MVFR VIS AT SRB AND CSV. ANY
FOG THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL DIMINISH EARLY MONDAY MORNING WITH VFR
RETURNING AREAWIDE AFTER 13Z.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 72 93 71 98 / 10 0 0 0
CLARKSVILLE 70 92 70 98 / 10 0 0 0
CROSSVILLE 65 87 64 89 / 0 10 0 10
COLUMBIA 70 96 71 99 / 0 0 0 0
COOKEVILLE 67 88 68 93 / 0 0 0 0
JAMESTOWN 66 85 64 90 / 0 0 0 0
LAWRENCEBURG 69 95 70 97 / 0 0 0 0
MURFREESBORO 70 96 70 99 / 0 0 0 0
WAVERLY 72 95 73 98 / 0 0 0 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR TNZ005>010-
023>032-056>064-075-093>095.
SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM....ROSE
AVIATION.....CLEMENTS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page