390
FXUS64 KOHX 192349
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
649 PM CDT WED AUG 19 2026
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 641 PM CDT WED AUG 19 2026
- SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OUT OF 5) FOR SEVERE STORMS TONIGHT IN THE
NORTHWEST. DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS.
THERE IS A VERY LOW TORNADO AND LARGE HAIL THREAT AS WELL.
- SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH A LOW SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR AREAS SOUTH OF
I-40.
- NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 641 PM CDT WED AUG 19 2026
EARLY EVENING WAS QUIET ACROSS THE MID STATE. SKIES WERE PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.
THE QUIET WILL END LATE TONIGHT WITH STORMS EXPECTED TO ROLL IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST. THERE IS NOT A LOT UPSTREAM AT THIS TIME, BUT
SHORT RANGE MODELS SHOW DEVELOPING CELLS OVER THE OZARKS
INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND FORMING A LINE. THIS LINE OF STORMS IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO OUR NORTHWEST AREA SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT,
THEN SPREAD EASTWARD THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. RAIN CHANCES
WILL STAY PRETTY LOW FOR OUR FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS ARE THE MAIN CONCERN, WITH THE MAIN RISK OVER THE NORTHWEST
COUNTIES.
LOOKING AHEAD TO THURSDAY, FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW PRETTY GOOD
INSTABILITY WITH ENOUGH DCAPE TO BE CONCERNED ABOUT DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS. THE AREA OF MAIN CONCERN FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON IS OVER
OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES AND PLATEAU.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1121 AM CDT WED AUG 19 2026
A SLOWLY DECAYING COMPLEX OF STORMS IS TRYING TO PUSH INTO THE AREA
LATE THIS MORNING WITH THE MAIN CONSEQUENCE BEING SOME CLOUD COVER
FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA. SOME SCATTERED STORMS MAY MAKE IT
INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. IF YOU'VE BEEN OUTSIDE
THIS MORNING, YOU MAY HAVE NOTICED IT IS A LITTLE MORE HUMID.
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 90S WITH
HEAT INDICES AROUND 100-105 DEGREES.
THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE FORECAST IS TONIGHT AS STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE IN SOUTHERN MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON AND
PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD. THE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THAT LINE WILL BE
CHARACTERIZED WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND 30-40 KTS OF
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR. IN ADDITION, THERE WILL BE SOME LOW LEVEL
CURVATURE IN THE HODOGRAPHS WITH A SHALLOW SURFACE INVERSION IN
PLACE. WITH THAT SAID, THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/5) FOR THE
NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE CWA. DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE MAIN THREAT,
BUT GIVEN THE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND LOW LEVEL CURVATURE, THERE IS A
VERY LOW THREAT FOR A TORNADO OR LARGE HAIL. THE TIMING FOR THE
SEVERE THREAT WILL BE AFTER 8 PM THROUGH 2 AM. AS THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS PROGRESS, THE STORMS WILL LOSE SOME OF THEIR STEAM BUT SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL PERSIST INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THE OVERNIGHT WAVE
WILL DISSIPATE BY MIDDAY BUT A SURFACE FRONT WILL BE DRAPED ACROSS
THE AREA. ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL DEVELOP LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SWINGS THROUGH THE MID LEVEL FLOW.
MOISTURE WILL POOL ACROSS THE FRONT DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY
WITH PWAT VALUES APPROACHING 2" WHICH WILL LEAD TO SOME HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AND POSSIBLE LOCALIZED FLOODING. THE SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH
THE WEAK SURFACE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1121 AM CDT WED AUG 19 2026
THE UPPER TROUGHING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ON FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER
WAVE SWINGING THROUGH THE FLOW. THIS MAY SPARK SOME ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND STORMS ON FRIDAY MAINLY ALONG THE PLATEAU. SOME
SLIGHTLY LESS HUMID AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND FRIDAY'S WAVE WITH
TEMPERATURES STAYING AROUND NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. RAIN CHANCES LOOK VERY LOW FOR THE WEEKEND AS
WELL. THE UPPER HIGH WILL PUSH EASTWARD TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH MEANS TEMPERATURES WILL
START TO CREEP UP TOWARD MID NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 538 PM CDT WED AUG 19 2026
TAFS ARE CURRENTLY VFR WITH JUST A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ONGOING AT
THIS HOUR ACROSS NORTHWEST MIDDLE TN. HOWEVER, A LINE OF SHOWERS &
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOVING EAST THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT, LIKELY
APPROACHING KCKV AROUND 05Z TO 06Z AND EXITING THROUGH KCSV BY 12Z.
PRIMARY CONCERNS WITH THIS LINE WILL BE CONVECTIVE WIND GUSTS AND
REDUCTIONS TO VIS/CIGS DUE TO HEAVY RAIN. LIGHT RAIN MAY PERSIST
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING BEHIND THE MAIN LINE, BUT CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. WINDS WILL SHIFT NORTHWESTERLY
WITH THE PASSAGE OF A FRONT THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING. FOR NOW, ONLY INCLUDED A PROB30 FOR BNA'S 30-HOUR
TAF.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 71 90 69 90 / 70 60 50 20
CLARKSVILLE 71 89 70 89 / 80 40 30 10
CROSSVILLE 68 86 66 84 / 60 50 50 60
COLUMBIA 73 93 71 91 / 60 50 50 20
COOKEVILLE 69 86 68 85 / 60 50 50 50
JAMESTOWN 67 85 66 84 / 60 50 40 40
LAWRENCEBURG 72 92 70 89 / 60 60 50 30
MURFREESBORO 72 92 70 91 / 60 50 60 30
WAVERLY 72 89 70 90 / 80 60 30 10
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE.......13
SHORT TERM...REAGAN
LONG TERM....REAGAN
AVIATION.....CLEMENTS
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