451  
FXUS64 KOHX 191129  
AFDOHX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN  
629 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2025  
   
..NEW AVIATION
 
 
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
UPDATED AT 625 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2025  
 
- THE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS HAS ENDED FOR MIDDLE TENNESSEE. EXPECT  
WIDESPREAD RAIN OVERNIGHT WITH A FEW EMBEDDED STORMS AS A STRONG  
COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE MID STATE.  
 
- SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN QUITE GUSTY OVERNIGHT AND MOST OF THE  
DAY TOMORROW AS THEY SHIFT TO THE WNW WITH THE FROPA.  
 
- SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL SETTLE IN FROM SUNDAY  
ONWARD.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
 
(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2025  
 
STORMS HAVE ENTERED MIDDLE TENNESSEE JUST AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD  
FRONT THAT PROMISES A RAINY NIGHT ACROSS THE MID STATE AND  
SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. IN THE NEAR TERM, THERE IS  
STILL A LOW RISK OF SEVERE STORMS, MAINLY IN AREAS WEST OF I-65.  
THE PRIMARY THREAT IS DAMAGING WINDS, AS THERE IS PLENTY OF LOW-  
LEVEL WIND SHEAR IN THE PRE-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT. BUT ACCORDING TO  
THE MOST RECENT ACARS SOUNDING FOR BNA (VALID AT 0345Z), THE  
SBCAPE HAS DWINDLED TO 190 J/KG, AND WE ARE ACTUALLY CAPPED OFF AT  
~650 MB. SO WHAT IS LEFT OF THE SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO  
DROP OFF AS THIS LINE OF CONVECTION PROGRESSES EASTWARD. BY 12Z,  
THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL HAVE REACHED THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU, AND  
WILL BE GONE ENTIRELY BY 18Z. WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED  
WITH THE ATTENDANT LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL REMAIN LARGELY NORTH  
OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE, SO MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SOME  
CLEARING DURING THE AFTERNOON, AND CERTAINLY BY NIGHTFALL. BREEZY  
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ON SUNDAY OWING TO A STRONG SURFACE  
PRESSURE GRADIENT, BUT WINDS WILL DIMINISH CONSIDERABLY BY SUNDAY  
EVENING WHILE TEMPERATURES DROP TO THE LOWEST READINGS SO FAR THIS  
AUTUMN. INDEED, EXPECT MONDAY MORNING TEMPERATURES TO BOTTOM OUT  
IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S. SO IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME OF THE  
HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND USUAL COLD SPOTS WILL SEE SOME FROST FOR THE  
FIRST TIME.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM
 
 
(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)  
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2025  
 
A SECOND COLD FRONT LOOKS TO SWEEP ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE ON  
TUESDAY THAT WILL REINFORCE THE COOL AIR. AT THIS TIME, IT APPEARS  
THAT THIS WILL BE A DRY FROPA. AFTERWARDS, TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN  
A SLOW, STEADY CLIMB. IT APPEARS THAT RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN TO  
THE MID STATE TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. AT THIS TIME, THE NBM IS  
SUGGESTING A MULTI-DAY RAIN EVENT STARTING ON FRIDAY AND LASTING  
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
(12Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 629 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2025  
 
RAIN CONTINUES TO AFFECT MIDDLE TN SITES THIS MORNING. SHRA WILL  
CONTINUE TO BE A POSSIBILITY AT EASTERN TAF SITES THROUGH THE  
MORNING, AND IT'S POSSIBLE SOME COULD DEVELOP BEHIND THE CURRENT  
LINE. WINDS WILL INCREASE AND GUST TO 25 KNOTS WITH THE FRONT  
PASSING THROUGH. AFTER RAIN CEASES, CEILINGS WILL CLEAR INTO THE  
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
NASHVILLE 69 44 73 54 / 50 0 0 10  
CLARKSVILLE 67 41 73 52 / 50 0 0 10  
CROSSVILLE 62 36 64 44 / 90 0 0 0  
COLUMBIA 68 41 71 51 / 40 0 0 10  
COOKEVILLE 64 39 66 48 / 90 0 0 0  
JAMESTOWN 63 38 65 47 / 90 0 0 0  
LAWRENCEBURG 67 40 70 49 / 40 0 0 10  
MURFREESBORO 68 40 71 51 / 60 0 0 10  
WAVERLY 65 42 71 52 / 40 0 0 10  
 

 
   
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...ROSE  
LONG TERM....ROSE  
AVIATION.....HOLLEY  
 
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