078
FXUS64 KOHX 011705
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1205 PM CDT TUE JUL 1 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1202 PM CDT TUE JUL 1 2025
- RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY. FREQUENT
LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER STORMS.
- TEMPERATURES WARM BACK WELL INTO THE 90S LATE WEEK WITH DRIER
WEATHER CURRENTLY EXPECTED FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY AND THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 857 AM CDT TUE JUL 1 2025
TODAY IS IT, THE LAST DAY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE A
NICE BREAK IN THE WEATHER. AN UPPER TROUGH IS SWINGING THROUGH
THE REGION, INCREASING STORM CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST. STORM
ACTIVITY IS SCATTERED IN NATURE AND IS EXPECTED TO MOSTLY BE NON-
SEVERE. THAT SAID, THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS ACROSS THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU THIS EVENING AS STORM'S
ARRIVAL TIME WILL COINCIDE WITH PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING.
ADDITIONALLY, THE UPPER CUMBERLAND WILL HAVE THE BEST SHEAR
PARAMETERS, BUT STILL ONLY BETWEEN 15-20 KTS. ON THE FLIP SIDE,
LAPSE RATES WILL BE WEAK, LIMITING STORM'S OVERALL STRENGTH. PWATS
ARE STILL ELEVATED, AROUND 2 INCHES, SO HEAVY RAIN WILL STILL BE
A CONCERN TODAY ACROSS THE WHOLE CWA.
TONIGHT, THE COLD FRONT IS STILL ON TRACK TO CLEAR MIDDLE TN
BETWEEN 03-05Z, AND WITH THAT, THE BEGINNING OF A DRIER PATTERN
FOR THE REGION. BY WEDNESDAY, CLEARING SKIES AND HOT TEMPERATURES
WILL DEVELOP WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S. THE BEST NEWS
OF ALL, NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS OVER THE
REGION, WITH RHS BETWEEN 50-60 PERCENT. THIS WILL MAKES THINGS
FEEL MUCH MORE BEARABLE THROUGH THE LATE WEEK.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 857 AM CDT TUE JUL 1 2025
NO CHANGE TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST. THE UPPER PATTERN WILL SEE A
UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENING AS WE GO FROM THURSDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND. THIS MEANS TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID
90S FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. THE LONG WEEKEND
WILL BE HOT AND DRY WITH THE UPPER HIGH IN CONTROL. SOME LOW
DIURNAL STORM CHANCES MAY RETURN AS WE GET INTO THE NEXT WORK
WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1202 PM CDT TUE JUL 1 2025
A FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA IS RESULTING IN SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS. THERE'S NOT MUCH LIGHTNING ACTIVITY YET
WITH THESE SHOWERS, AND GIVEN TRENDS, REMOVED THE MENTION OF TSRA
AT KBNA AND KMQY AS CONFIDENCE IN LIGHTNING AT THESE SITES IS TOO
LOW. ONCE THE FRONT PASSES, SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL COME TO AN END
AND WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY BY 00Z. ADDITIONAL LOW CIGS
AND PATCHY FOG WILL REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT ALONG THE PLATEAU.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 69 91 69 92 / 0 0 0 0
CLARKSVILLE 67 89 68 90 / 0 0 0 0
CROSSVILLE 64 84 61 85 / 30 0 0 0
COLUMBIA 66 88 66 89 / 10 0 0 0
COOKEVILLE 65 85 63 86 / 20 0 0 0
JAMESTOWN 64 84 61 86 / 30 0 0 0
LAWRENCEBURG 66 87 64 89 / 10 0 0 0
MURFREESBORO 67 89 66 90 / 10 0 0 0
WAVERLY 66 88 66 89 / 0 0 0 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...CRAVENS
LONG TERM....CRAVENS
AVIATION.....CLEMENTS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page