410
FXUS64 KOHX 021120
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
620 AM CDT FRI OCT 2 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 615 AM CDT FRI OCT 2 2026
- MEDIUM TO HIGH RAIN CHANCES DEVELOP FRIDAY AND CONTINUE INTO
SUNDAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST, BUT SEVERE WEATHER
IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
- LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCE FOR MORE THAN 1 INCH OF RAIN THIS WEEKEND
WITH THE HEAVIEST RAIN EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY.
- COOLER, DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT THU OCT 1 2026
THE STORM SYSTEM OFF TO OUR WEST CONTINUES TO DRAW CLOSER TO THE
TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS. WARMER, MORE MOIST AIR IS BEING
ADVECTED INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING AND YOU CAN TELL OUTSIDE THAT
HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE UP COMPARED TO JUST A COUPLE DAYS AGO. THE
MAIN MOISTURE AXIS NOW STRETCHES FROM SOUTHERN TEXAS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. THOUGH WE ARE SEEING AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE
APPROACHING THE AREA, THE OVERALL STRENGTH OF THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IS DECREASING WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL DYNAMICS NOW SHEARING
OUT AND LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE POLAR JET STREAM. MOST
AREAS OF RAIN AND STORMS TO THE WEST ARE LOSING INTENSITY. THIS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE WITH RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY MOVING INTO
MIDDLE TENNESSEE TOMORROW. IT DOESN'T APPEAR WE'LL EXPERIENCE A
SOLID LINE OF RAIN/STORMS, BUT RATHER SCATTERED/FRAGMENTED
ACTIVITY, THOUGH SOME POTENTIAL FOR HEATING TO GET A COUPLE STORMS
GOING. OVERALL THIS DOES NOT APPEAR TO BRING A DROUGHT BUSTING
RAIN EVENT, BUT A WELCOME COOL DOWN WITH RAIN AND CLOUD COVER THEN
AN INITIAL COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
THOUGH THE SURFACE FRONT WILL BE TO OUR SOUTH ON SATURDAY, WEAK
925-850 MB CONFLUENCE WILL REMAIN ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE WITH
LINGERING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SUPPORTING ISENTROPIC ASCENT.
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY
WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT THU OCT 1 2026
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND LINGERING LOW- TO MID-LEVEL
DEFORMATION ARE PROGGED TO BE IN PLACE NEAR OUR REGION ON SUNDAY.
WE COULD ALSO SEE FAVORABLE ALIGNMENT OF THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF THE UPPER-LEVEL JET, AT LEAST BRIEFLY, BUT THESE
FEATURES HAVE VARYING PLACEMENT DEPENDING ON INDIVIDUAL MODEL
SOLUTIONS. THESE FORCING CONSIDERATIONS WILL HELP BRING ADDITIONAL RAIN
SHOWERS TO THE AREA, BEST CHANCES ARE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF
OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE. FINALLY, A PROMINENT NORTHERN STREAM
DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED REINFORCING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
ARRIVE MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BRING A NOTABLY COOLER, DRIER
AIRMASS THAT IS FORECAST TO STICK AROUND FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
LOWS INTO THE LOW 40S TO LOW 50S ARE EXPECTED, THOUGH THE DRY
AIRMASS WILL ALLOW FOR EFFICIENT AFTERNOON WARMING AS WELL; INTO
THE 80S WEST OF THE PLATEAU BY MID WEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 615 AM CDT FRI OCT 2 2026
VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS 5-10KT. AN APPROACHING FRONT ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AFTER 18Z. CIGS/VSBYS
WILL DIP TO MVFR AT TIMES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL
DROP RAPIDLY TO IFR AND LIFR AFTER 03/00Z WITH LOW CIGS, LIGHT
SHOWERS AND MIST DEVELOPING ALONG AND NORTH OF THE SURFACE FRONT.
POST FRONTAL WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST TO NORTH 5-10KT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 88 63 78 63 / 80 50 40 40
CLARKSVILLE 80 59 76 59 / 90 40 20 20
CROSSVILLE 83 63 76 62 / 60 50 40 50
COLUMBIA 90 65 81 64 / 70 50 40 50
COOKEVILLE 84 64 75 63 / 70 60 30 50
JAMESTOWN 83 63 73 62 / 70 70 40 50
LAWRENCEBURG 89 64 80 64 / 50 40 40 50
MURFREESBORO 91 65 81 64 / 70 60 30 50
WAVERLY 78 61 73 61 / 90 40 20 30
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...SIZEMORE
LONG TERM....SIZEMORE
AVIATION.....13
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