599
FXUS64 KOHX 110043
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
643 PM CST WED DEC 10 2025
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 636 PM CST WED DEC 10 2025
- LOW TO MEDIUM (UP TO 40%) SNOW ACCUMULATION CHANCES ON THE UPPER
CUMBERLAND PLATEAU TONIGHT. DUSTING TO ONE HALF INCH IS THE MOST
LIKELY OUTCOME.
- ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL IMPACT THE REGION THIS WEEKEND BRINGING
THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON IS EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT, WITH WIDESPREAD LOWS IN THE TEENS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 636 PM CST WED DEC 10 2025
A COLD FRONT HAS TRACKED THROUGH THE AREA, BUT BRISK NORTHERLY TO
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE BEHIND IT WITH GUSTS AT THIS HOUR
STILL IN THE 20-30 MPH RANGE. THESE SHOULD CONTINUE TO LESSEN AS
THE EVENING PROGRESSES. OTHERWISE, THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR
TONIGHT IS THE SNOW POTENTIAL ACROSS THE UPPER CUMBERLAND. LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF ON THAT POTENTIAL AND SO POPS HAVE
DECREASED WITH THIS EVENING'S UPDATE. THERE IS STILL A LOW CHANCE
FOR SNOW FLURRIES ACROSS THE PLATEAU, BUT THE PROBABILITY OF
GETTING AT LEAST A HALF AN INCH OUT OF IT IS LOW AT 10-20% ACROSS
THE FENTRESS & CUMBERLAND COUNTY AREA. BEHIND THE FRONT,
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD WITH HIGHS TOMORROW ONLY IN THE
UPPER-30S FOR THE PLATEAU AND INTO THE 40S ELSEWHERE.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1046 AM CST WED DEC 10 2025
SOME SUN. SOME CLOUDS. MAYBE EVEN A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES, BUT IF YOU'RE OUTSIDE, THE BIGGER ISSUE
IS PROBABLY THE WIND. IT'S STILL BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA AND
SHOULD STAY THERE, BUT WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S, IT DEFINITELY
FEELS COOLER THAN THAT OUTSIDE. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST 20 TO
35 MPH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND SHOULD BEGIN TO RELAX THIS
EVENING AFTER THE COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH HERE. SPEAKING OF THE
COLD FRONT: CUMBERLAND PLATEAU? I THINK YOU'RE GOING TO SEE SOME
SNOW TONIGHT. AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH, BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS
SWING TO THE NORTHWEST AND CREATE A PERFECT FETCH FOR UPSLOPE FLOW
LEADING TO THE OROGRAPHIC LIFT THAT CAN CAUSE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
ON THE UPPER CUMBERLAND THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. THERE ARE A COUPLE
OF LIMITING FACTORS INVOLVED. FIRST IS A QUESTION OF THE DEPTH OF
MOISTURE. HRRR SOUNDINGS SHOW SATURATION TO -10C WITH STARKLY
DRIER AIR ABOVE THAT. THIS COULD MITIGATE HOW MUCH SNOW IS
POSSIBLE. ADDITIONALLY, TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED
TO GET INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S. THIS COULD ALSO AFFECT SNOWFALL
TOTALS. BECAUSE OF THESE LIMITING FACTORS, I'M GOING TO REFRAIN
FROM ISSUING A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THIS AREA FOR NOW. HREF
PROBS STAND AT 40% OF SEEING UP TO AN INCH IN THE USUAL SPOTS
(MONTERREY, JAMESTOWN). THE NBM IS EVEN LOWER. FOR NOW, WE'LL
MESSAGE A DUSTING TO HALF AN INCH BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 8 AM.
HOWEVER, THOSE HIGHER ELEVATIONS COULD SEE UP TO AN INCH. WHAT'S THE
PROBABILITY FOR MORE THAN AN INCH? 10%. KNOW THAT IF THIS SYSTEM
OVERPERFORMS, YOU MAY EXPERIENCE SOME ROAD ISSUES TOMORROW
MORNING ON THE UPPER CUMBERLAND -- AND IF YOU DO GET IT,
TEMPERATURES WON'T CLIMB BACK ABOVE FREEZING UNTIL THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1046 AM CST WED DEC 10 2025
A LARGE, UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE US IS
RESPONSIBLE FOR TONIGHT'S WEATHER. THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
OVER NEW ENGLAND FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND DURING THAT TIME,
SPIT OUT SEVERAL SHORTWAVES. THE FIRST IS THURSDAY NIGHT, WHICH WILL
PROVIDE A GOOD AMOUNT OF SNOW TO AREAS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. FOR
US, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP THAT STUFF NORTH OF US. IN
FACT, BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON, TEMPERATURES LOOK TO CLIMB BACK ABOVE
NORMAL ONCE AGAIN. HOWEVER, ON FRIDAY NIGHT, ANOTHER DRY FRONTAL
PASSAGE IS EXPECTED AND THIS IS THE ONE THAT IS GOING TO SEND US
INTO A BITTER COLD SPELL FOR A FEW DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
OFF ABOUT 10 DEGREES SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND THAT'S JUST THE START.
THOSE TEMPERATURES THAT THE NBM HAD IN THERE A COUPLE OF DAYS AGO
AND BACKED OFF OF? YEAH, THEY'RE BACK. SUNDAY MORNING LOWS ARE
AGAIN EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS AND MONDAY MORNING
EVEN COLDER. SOME SINGLE DIGITS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN OUR USUALLY
COLDER SPOTS MONDAY MORNING. TO BE FAIR, EVEN THOUGH THE NBM
BACKED OFF YESTERDAY, PROBS STILL STOOD AT 50-70% OF LOWS IN THE
TEENS. NOW THEY'RE CLOSER TO 90%.
FOR ME, THIS IS ALL GOOD NEWS BECAUSE IT GIVES US A CHANCE TO DRY
OUT A BIT. OUR NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN ISN'T UNTIL THIS TIME NEXT WEEK.
SO GET THOSE HEAVY JACKETS OUT OF THE MOTH BALLS. THE COLD AIR IS
ACOMIN' THIS WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 527 PM CST WED DEC 10 2025
THE COLD FRONT HAS COMPLETED ITS PASSAGE THROUGH MIDDLE TN, AND
WINDS ARE NOW OUT OF THE NW AT ALL TERMINALS. A THICK MVFR CLOUD
DECK CONTINUES TO FILL INTO THE AREA, AND CIGS BETWEEN 020-025
ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. VFR CIGS LOOK TO RETURN
AFTER 12Z WITH A FEW POCKETS OF VFR CIGS POSSIBLE BEFORE THEN.
LOW CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AT SRB AND CSV, PROB30 GROUPS
HAVE BEEN INCLUDED IN THE TAF FOR THIS. GUSTS BETWEEN 20-25 KTS
WILL RELAX OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH LIGHTER WINDS ANTICIPATED
OVERNIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 27 45 36 57 / 0 10 0 0
CLARKSVILLE 26 44 36 54 / 0 10 0 0
CROSSVILLE 25 38 29 51 / 10 10 0 0
COLUMBIA 26 46 34 58 / 0 0 0 0
COOKEVILLE 25 39 31 52 / 10 10 10 0
JAMESTOWN 25 37 29 50 / 20 10 20 10
LAWRENCEBURG 25 45 34 58 / 0 0 0 0
MURFREESBORO 26 44 34 57 / 0 10 0 0
WAVERLY 26 43 36 55 / 0 0 0 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE.......CLEMENTS
SHORT TERM...UNGER
LONG TERM....UNGER
AVIATION.....BAGGETT
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