251
FXUS64 KOHX 230553
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1253 AM CDT THU APR 23 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1250 AM CDT THU APR 23 2026
- DRY AND WARM TODAY.
- SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURN FRIDAY. THE SEVERE THREAT IS LOW,
THOUGH A FEW STRONG GUSTS COULD OCCUR.
- THERE IS A MEDIUM RISK OF SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE MID-STATE ON
MONDAY. THIS MAY INCLUDE THE RISK OF TORNADOES, DAMAGING
STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1049 PM CDT WED APR 22 2026
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER MIDDLE TN TONIGHT, AND WE ARE
ENJOYING ANOTHER CALM, CLEAR NIGHT THANKS TO IT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
FALL INTO THE 50S. WE'LL EXPERIENCE OUR WARMEST DAY YET THURSDAY AS
THE RIDGE AXIS PASSES DIRECTLY OVERHEAD, SENDING TEMPERATURES UP
INTO THE MID 80S FOR MOST WITH PASSING MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.
THE RIDGE WILL SLIP OFF TO THE EAST EARLY FRIDAY AS A WEAK WAVE
USHERS IN IMMEDIATELY BEHIND IT. THIS WAVE WILL BRING SHOWERS
WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA WITH A NOTICABLE
UPTICK IN ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE. INSTABILITY OVERALL IS WEAK,
HOWEVER IT IS SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO BOAST A THUNDERSTORM RISK WITH
MLCAPE VALUES RANGING FROM 300-500 J/KG. LAPSE RATES AND SHEAR
ARE ALSO BOTH ON THE MARGINAL SIDE, BUT PERHAPS A STRONG GUST OR
TWO IS POSSIBLE. CAMS ARE NOT RESOLVING THE OUTCOME VERY WELL AT
THIS TIME WITH SOME SHOWING AN EARLY MORNING BAND OF
SHOWERS/STORMS FOLLOWED BY A LATER WAVE PRIMARILY IMPACTING OUR
SOUTH AND WEST COUNTIES FRIDAY EVENING. OTHERS SHOW JUST ONE WAVE
AND HAVE TIMING MUCH LATER, CLOSER TO DAYBREAK SATURDAY MORNING.
REGARDLESS, THE SETUP AND PARAMETERS OVERALL ARE ON THE MARGINAL
SIDE, SO GO AHEAD AND TAKE YOUR UMBRELLA ON THE WAY OUT THE DOOR
FRIDAY MORNING JUST IN CASE SHOWERS DO BEGIN EARLIER. IF ANYTHING,
WE'LL GET SOME BENEFICIAL RAIN OUT OF THIS SYSTEM WITH QPF
RANGING BETWEEN 0.5"-1". NBM PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING 1" WITH
THIS WAVE ARE AROUND BETWEEN 30-40%.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1049 PM CDT WED APR 22 2026
SHOWERS WILL WRAP UP EARLY IN THE DAY SATURDAY, LEAVING US WITH
MOSTLY DRY AND MUGGY CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S DURING THIS TIME. BY MONDAY, ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL EMERGE, THIS TIME WITH MUCH MORE
DYNAMIC SUPPORT THAN FRIDAY'S SETUP. A STOUT 100 KT UPPER LEVEL
JET DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTH WILL DRIVE A NEGATIVIELY-TILTED
TROUGH ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY MONDAY. AT THE SURFACE, THIS
TRANSLATES TO A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW TREKKING NORTH OVER THE
GREAT LAKES. A NOTABLE CHANGE FROM YESTERDAY'S ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT
THE TRACK OF THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS FURTHER NORTH, WHICH
HELPS SOMEWHAT REDUCE THE THREAT FOR AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE
WEATHER. STILL, THOUGH, WE WILL NEED TO KEEP OUR EYES PEELED
BECAUSE FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND GENERAL PATTERN RECOGNITION DO
FAVOR AN ALL-HAZARDS SEVERE THREAT MONDAY, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND
WEST OF I-65.
WITH ALL OF THIS BEING SAID, THE SILVER LINING IS THAT WE WILL GET
AT LEAST SOME RELIEF FROM THE ONGOING DROUGHT WITH ALL OF THE
UNSETTLEDNESS. SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN LOOK LIKELY THROUGH NEXT
WEEK AS ADDITIONAL WAVES OF MOISTURE BRING ON AND OFF RAIN
CHANCES TO THE AREA.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1250 AM CDT THU APR 23 2026
VFR WIND FORECAST FOR MIDDLE TENNESSEE AIRFIELDS. WINDS ARE SW
WITH AFTERNOON GUSTS AT BNA, MQY, AND CKV TOMORROW. THERE'S
MARGINAL LLWS AT CKV AND BNA, ~25 KTS, AFTER 03Z TOMORROW
EVENING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 84 61 83 63 / 0 0 70 90
CLARKSVILLE 84 61 82 62 / 0 0 80 80
CROSSVILLE 79 55 80 58 / 10 0 20 90
COLUMBIA 84 59 84 61 / 0 0 70 90
COOKEVILLE 80 58 81 60 / 0 0 50 90
JAMESTOWN 80 55 81 58 / 10 0 20 90
LAWRENCEBURG 82 59 82 60 / 0 0 60 90
MURFREESBORO 84 59 83 60 / 0 0 50 90
WAVERLY 83 63 81 60 / 0 0 80 90
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...BAGGETT
LONG TERM....BAGGETT
AVIATION.....SIZEMORE
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