823
FXUS64 KOHX 090513
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1213 AM CDT TUE JUN 9 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1206 AM CDT TUE JUN 9 2026
- PERIODIC SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
WITH LOW SEVERE STORM CHANCES.
- LOW TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN FLASH FLOODING THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.
- HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS BUILD AS HEAT INDICES REACH THE 100S
WEST OF THE PLATEAU WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1115 PM CDT MON JUN 8 2026
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING EAST ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE
VALLEYS CURRENTLY WITH AN EMBEDDED MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX
(MCV) NOW IN WESTERN KENTUCKY. THIS MCV HAS LED TO PERSISTENT
(THOUGH NOW WEAKENING) CONVECTION JUST TO OUR NORTHWEST, THOUGH
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NOW APPROACHING THE I-65 CORRIDOR. RAIN AND
STORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE VICINITY OF THE MCV
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AS SUCH, WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN THE
REGION, FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SLOW-MOVING OR
TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS, THOUGH CONFIDENCE ON THE OVERALL FLASH
FLOODING THREAT HAS DECREASED SOMEWHAT.
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OFF TO OUR EAST ON WEDNESDAY AND BE
REPLACED WITH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE FROM THE WEST. THIS FEATURE WILL
PROVIDE DECREASED RAIN CHANCES AND INCREASED AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. DESPITE DRIER AIR ALOFT, THE
COMBINATION OF LINGERING HUMIDITY LEVELS AT THE SURFACE AND HIGHS
IN THE 90S WILL LEAD TO HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE LOW 100S FOR
AREAS WEST OF THE PLATEAU.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1115 PM CDT MON JUN 8 2026
THURSDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY WITH LINGERING RIDGING
ALOFT AND HEAT/HUMIDITY DURING THE AFTERNOON. ONLY ISOLATED
CONVECTION IS FORECAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, A COLD
FRONT WILL GRADUALLY APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. AS A RESULT, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE
NUMEROUS FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE FRONT MOVING INTO MIDDLE
TENNESSEE MOST LIKELY DURING PEAK DIURNAL HEATING. THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY WITH A TRANSITION
TO WEAK ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THERE'S MODEL DISAGREEMENT ABOUT HOW FAR
PWS BECOME SUPPRESSED TO OUR SOUTH, SO POPS REMAIN LOW-MEDIUM FOR
THE WEEKEND.
AT THIS TIME THERE'S NO OBVIOUS SIGNAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD, THOUGH WE'LL NEED TO WATCH FRIDAY CONSIDERING
A FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION WITH MODEST LEVELS OF PRE-
FRONTAL INSTABILITY DURING THE AFTERNOON. RAIN AND STORM CHANCES
REMAIN IN A LOW-MEDIUM POSTURE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1206 AM CDT TUE JUN 9 2026
CURRENTLY, A FEW SHOWERS & THUNDERSTORMS ARE MAKING THEIR WAY
ACROSS WESTERN MIDDLE TN. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
DID MAINTAIN THE USE OF VCSH AND PROB30 GROUPS DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE IN SPECIFIC THUNDERSTORM LOCATIONS. CIGS ARE MAINLY
VFR AT THIS HOUR BUT SHOULD LOWER TO MVFR OVERNIGHT. CIGS WILL
IMPROVE BACK TO VFR BY LATE MORNING WITH OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS
LESS THAN 20 KNOTS AT CKV, BNA, AND MQY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 89 73 93 74 / 60 40 10 0
CLARKSVILLE 88 74 92 75 / 60 40 10 0
CROSSVILLE 81 68 85 68 / 70 40 30 0
COLUMBIA 88 71 92 72 / 60 40 10 0
COOKEVILLE 84 70 87 71 / 70 50 30 0
JAMESTOWN 82 68 87 69 / 70 40 40 0
LAWRENCEBURG 86 70 89 72 / 50 40 10 0
MURFREESBORO 89 72 92 73 / 60 50 20 0
WAVERLY 89 74 92 74 / 50 40 0 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR TNZ005>011-023>034-
056>066-075-077>080-093>095.
SHORT TERM...SIZEMORE
LONG TERM....SIZEMORE
AVIATION.....CLEMENTS
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