766
FXUS64 KOHX 161712
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1212 PM CDT SUN AUG 16 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1210 PM CDT SUN AUG 16 2026
- DANGEROUS HEAT IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY WITH TRIPLE DIGIT
HEAT INDICES ACROSS MOST OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE. THIS IS RESULTING
IN MAJOR TO EXTREME RISK FOR HEAT-RELATED ILLNESSES. PLEASE TAKE
THE NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT YOURSELF AND LOVED ONES
FROM THIS OPPRESSIVE HEAT.
- MEDIUM STORM CHANCES ON MONDAY MAY BRING A DAMAGING WIND RISK
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS, ESPECIALLY TO AREAS
EAST OF I-65.
- EXTREME HEAT AND HUMIDITY SHOULD BE OUT OF MIDDLE TN BY LATE WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1107 AM CDT SUN AUG 16 2026
ANOTHER SCORCHER IS UNDERWAY ACROSS MIDDLE TN. THIS MORNING'S
UPPER AIR FLIGHTS DEPICTED A LARGE 250 MB RIDGE OVER THE GREAT
SMOKY MOUNTAINS. THIS IS EFFECTIVELY CREATING A "HEAT DOME" WITH
SUBSIDENCE TRAPPING HOT, MOIST AIR AT THE SURFACE, RESULTING IN
DANGEROUS HEAT INDICES FOR MIDDLE TN. EXPECT ANOTHER DAY OF
WIDESPREAD HEAT INDICES ABOVE 105F TODAY, MAYBE EVEN HITTING 110F
IN SOME AREAS WITH MORE URBAN SPRAWL. AS SUCH, THE EXTREME HEAT
WARNING IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 7PM TONIGHT. ONCE THAT EXPIRES AT
7PM, IT WILL BE IMMEDIATELY REPLACED BY AN AREAWIDE HEAT ADVISORY
THROUGH 7PM MONDAY. WE'LL BARELY GET ANY RELIEF OVERNIGHT TONIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 70S. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL STILL BE IN
PLACE TOMORROW, BUT GRADUALLY MODERATING BACK TO MORE ZONAL FLOW,
WARRANTING ONE MORE DAY OF HEAT HEADLINES. TOMORROW SHOULD BE THE
LAST DAY OF EXTREME HEAT FOR SEVERAL DAYS.
THE COLD FRONT RELIEVING US FROM THE HEAT WILL BE A DOUBLE-EDGED
SWORD TOMORROW/MONDAY NIGHT. IT ALSO BRINGS A THREAT OF SEVERE
WEATHER TO AREAS EAST OF I-65. INSTABILITY WILL BE PLENTIFUL UNDER
A DAY OF FULL SUN AND HUMIDITY PRIOR TO THE FRONT'S ARRIVAL. THE
16/12Z HREF SUGGESTS SBCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 2000 J/KG DURING THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE BETWEEN ABOUT 4PM AND 8PM MONDAY. WHILE THERE IS
VERY LITTLE SHEAR TO HOLD EVERYTHING TOGETHER, A STRONGLY UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH WILL STILL HAVE THE
FORCING NEEDED TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THE BULK OF THE
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS OVER EAST TENNESSEE (WHERE THE BEST
OVERLAP OF FAVORABLE INGREDIENTS IS), BUT STILL EXPECT TO SEE A
FEW HOURS OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAINLY OVER THE PLATEAU
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1107 AM CDT SUN AUG 16 2026
BEHIND THE FRONT ON TUESDAY, TEMPERATURES AND RESULTANT HEAT
INDICES TAKE A DIP BACK TOWARD NORMAL. KEEP IN MIND THAT IT'S
STILL MID AUGUST, SO "NORMAL" IS STILL HOT, AROUND 90 DEGREES.
THIS RELIEF WILL BE SHORT-LIVED DUE TO A WARM FRONT LIFTING ACROSS
THE STATE ON WEDNESDAY, BRINGING US RIGHT BACK UP TO BORDERLINE
HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. IT'S TOO EARLY TO MAKE THAT CALL RIGHT
NOW, BUT WE MAY JUST SKIRT BY WITHOUT HEAT HEADLINES ON WEDNESDAY.
THE MAJORITY OF THE WARM FRONT'S IMPACT WILL BE FELT OVER WEST
TENNESSEE WITH HEAT INDICES AROUND 105 TOWARD THE TN RIVER, BUT
IT WILL BE CLOSE.
THE PATTERN FINALLY STARTS TO MEDIATE BACK TOWARD CLIMATOLOGICAL
NORMALS AT THE END OF THE WEEK. BY THURSDAY, ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL
HELP SEND HEAT AND HUMIDITY WELL BELOW HEADLINE THRESHOLDS. BY
FRIDAY, EXPECT HEAT INDICES BELOW 100 DEGREES AREAWIDE FOR THE
FIRST TIME IN OVER A WEEK. THIS COOLER TREND CONTINUES THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1210 PM CDT SUN AUG 16 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS FOR ALL TERMINALS. HAVE INTRODUCED
PROB30 TS FOR BNA IN THE 24-30 HR WINDOW, THOUGH THIS IS LOW
CONFIDENCE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 78 96 73 92 / 0 30 30 0
CLARKSVILLE 77 93 70 91 / 0 20 20 0
CROSSVILLE 72 90 68 86 / 0 50 30 10
COLUMBIA 77 98 73 94 / 0 20 40 0
COOKEVILLE 73 91 70 88 / 0 50 30 10
JAMESTOWN 72 89 68 86 / 10 60 20 0
LAWRENCEBURG 76 96 72 91 / 0 30 40 10
MURFREESBORO 76 98 72 93 / 0 40 30 0
WAVERLY 76 94 71 92 / 0 30 30 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TNZ005>008-
023>030-056>064-075-093>095.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR
TNZ005>008-023>030-056>064-075-093>095.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR TNZ009>011-031>034-065-
066-077>080.
SHORT TERM...DIRKES
LONG TERM....DIRKES
AVIATION.....UNGER
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