527
FXUS64 KOHX 231130
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
530 AM CST MON FEB 23 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 525 AM CST MON FEB 23 2026
- FLURRIES CONTINUE NEAR THE UPPER CUMBERLAND PLATEAU WITH
ACTIVITY ENDING THIS MORNING.
- WARMING UP TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH RAIN LIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY.
- MILD TEMPERATURES CONTINUE INTO THIS WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1007 PM CST SUN FEB 22 2026
SKY CAMS ARE SHOWING THE SNOWFLAKES ARE FLYING OVER THE EAST
TONIGHT. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOBE OF ENERGY ROUNDING THE
LARGE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH. THE INTENSITY OF THE SNOWFALL IS SUCH
THAT A COUPLE LOCATIONS ON THE NORTHERN PLATEAU MAY PICK UP A
LIGHT DUSTING BY MORNING. THE ACTIVITY SHOULD TAPER OFF IN THE
MORNING AS THE MOISTURE BECOMES MORE SHALLOW AND THE STRATOCUMULUS
DECK THINS OUT. THE BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY WITH
SOME SINGLE DIGIT MORNING WIND CHILL VALUES. TEMPERATURES WILL
ONLY MAKE IT INTO THE 30S ONCE AGAIN. THOSE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
DECREASE MONDAY NIGHT WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE
AREA. WITH THE COLD HIGH PARKED OVER US, WE'LL HAVE ANOTHER COLD
NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID TEENS TO AROUND 20 DEGREES. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST ON TUESDAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW RAMPING UP
IN RESPONSE TO A SURFACE LOW MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO
THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL HELP TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE 40S
TO AROUND 50 DEGREES. THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN TUESDAY
NIGHT WHICH WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE
FREEZING.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1007 PM CST SUN FEB 22 2026
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL CLIMB ANOTHER 10 DEGREES
ABOVE TUESDAY'S TEMPERATURES AND SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW CONTINUES.
A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OUT
OF THE ROCKIES LATE WEDNESDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL SHARPEN NEAR THE
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL REINTRODUCE MEDIUM TO HIGH RAIN
CHANCES. HIGH RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE ON THURSDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW
AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH. THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT
SHEAR WITH THIS SYSTEM, BUT THE QUESTION WILL BE IF THERE'S ANY
INSTABILITY IN REGARDS FOR SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. RIGHT NOW,
THERE DOESN'T LOOK LIKE MUCH POTENTIAL FOR NOTABLE INSTABILITY,
BUT WE'LL CONTINUE TO KEEP AN EYE ON IT. WE WILL DRY OUT THURSDAY
NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT. THE AIR MASS BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL STILL
BE MILD. THOSE MILD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 525 AM CST MON FEB 23 2026
TAFS REFLECT VFR/MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING WITH BATCHES OF STRATUS
MOVING INTO THE MID STATE FROM THE NORTH. BNA, MQY, AND CKV HAVE
TEMPOS FOR MVFR WITH SRB AND CSV PREVAILING MVFR THROUGH MID
MORNING. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY WITH GUSTS
~20 KTS AT TIMES. SKIES GENERALLY CLEAR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
WITH CALMING WINDS OVERNIGHT. WINDS TRANSITION TO A S TO SW
DIRECTION TOMORROW AT 5-10 KTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 36 22 52 41 / 0 0 0 0
CLARKSVILLE 35 21 51 41 / 0 0 0 0
CROSSVILLE 31 16 47 36 / 10 0 0 0
COLUMBIA 36 18 51 40 / 0 0 0 0
COOKEVILLE 33 18 46 38 / 10 0 0 0
JAMESTOWN 31 17 46 37 / 10 0 0 0
LAWRENCEBURG 36 19 50 39 / 0 0 0 0
MURFREESBORO 36 18 50 40 / 0 0 0 0
WAVERLY 34 19 49 40 / 0 0 0 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...REAGAN
LONG TERM....REAGAN
AVIATION.....SIZEMORE
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page