323
FXUS64 KOHX 191611
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1111 AM CDT SAT SEP 19 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1104 AM CDT SAT SEP 19 2026
- VERY HOT CONDITIONS WITH TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT INDICES CONTINUE. A
HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY FOR MOST OF MIDDLE
TENNESSEE.
- LOW RAIN CHANCES MAINLY EAST OF I-65 THIS WEEKEND WITH A LOW
CHANCE FOR STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS. HIGHER RAIN CHANCES
SPREAD AREAWIDE MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
- COOLER AIR ARRIVES NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS MID TO LATE WEEK IN THE
UPPER 70S (PLATEAU) AND MID 80S EVERYWHERE ELSE IN MIDDLE TN.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1104 AM CDT SAT SEP 19 2026
HANG ON! ONLY A FEW MORE DAYS OF THIS GROSS, OPPRESSIVE HEAT! HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER ARKLATEX WILL CONTINUE TO DRIVE AFTERNOON
HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS MOST OF MIDDLE TN INTO THE UPPER 90S AND
CLOSE TO TRIPLE DIGITS TODAY, TOMORROW AND MONDAY. IF THERE'S ANY
SAVING GRACE, IT'S THE DEW POINTS. THEY'RE JUST HIGH ENOUGH TO
WARRANT CONTINUING THE HEAT ADVISORY THROUGH TOMORROW, BUT IT COULD
BE A WHOLE LOT WORSE. LOOK FOR HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 105 TO 107 IN
THE ADVISORY AREA TODAY AND TOMORROW. THEY DO START TO BACK OFF A
LITTLE ON MONDAY, WHICH SHOULD KEEP US FROM NEEDING TO EXTEND THE
ADVISORY INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK. AS FAR AS RAIN CHANCES FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEKEND, WE AREN'T CENTERED UNDER THE HIGH PRESSURE.
THIS MEANS SUBSIDENCE WON'T BE AS STRONG HERE, ESPECIALLY ON THE
PLATEAU AND ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. BECAUSE OF THIS, LOW
CHANCES (20-30%) FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE PRESENT THIS
AFTERNOON AND TOMORROW AFTERNOON. SEVERE RISK IS VERY LOW, BUT
WITH THE HEAT THE WAY IT IS, ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS WILL CARRY A
LOW WIND GUST RISK OF 50-60 MPH. PLEASE KEEP THIS IN MIND IF YOU
HAVE OUTDOOR PLANS IN THE ABOVE-MENTIONED AREAS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1104 AM CDT SAT SEP 19 2026
OK! NOW THE GOOD NEWS. RELIEF FROM THIS HEAT IS COMING. ON MONDAY,
THE LAST OFFICIAL FULL DAY OF SUMMER, WE'LL MAINTAIN ONE MORE DAY OF
WELL-ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES, BUT THE RIDGE REALLY STARTS TO BREAK
DOWN. THIS MEANS WITH THE REMAINING HEAT, SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES
WILL BE A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD. I'VE TAKEN A LOOK AT FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ON MONDAY AND WHILE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE, MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES OF MID 6'S AND HIGH TRIPLE DIGIT DCAPE VALUES COULD SPELL AT
LEAST A LOW WIND RISK. THIS WOULD MATCH UP WITH THE CURRENT DAY 3
OUTLOOK, THOUGH I WOULD SAY THAT EVEN THOUGH THE CURRENT MARGINAL
RISK IS OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE MID-STATE, ANY STORMS THAT
DEVELOP WILL CARRY A WIND RISK.
TUESDAY. FALL STARTS AT 7:04 PM CT AND IT'S ALSO THE DAY WE'VE ALL
BEEN WAITING FOR. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN BACKING OFF (LOW 90S/LOW
80S PLATEAU FOR HIGHS) AND ADDITIONAL, LIKELY EVEN MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BECOME POSSIBLE. THIS IS AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE MID-STATE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SIMILAR TO
MONDAY, BUT AS WE GET INTO THE EVENING, DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES
INCREASE TO ABOUT 30 KTS. NOW, I'M NOT TALKING ABOUT A SEVERE
WEATHER OUTBREAK OR ANYTHING, BUT STORMS WILL BE WORTH WATCHING LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. RELIEF WILL BE FELT ON TUESDAY,
THAT'S FOR SURE, BUT STARTING WEDNESDAY, BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE,
TEMPERATURES REALLY TAKE A DIVE. THAT DOESN'T MEAN 60S AND 70S FOR
EVERYONE (THOUGH THE PLATEAU WILL SEE 70S), BUT THE REST OF MIDDLE
TN WILL SEE AFTERNOON HIGHS RIGHT AROUND NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR (MID-80S). SUPER EXCITED FOR THAT, COUPLED WITH WHAT LOOKS LIKE
DRY CONDITIONS UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 540 AM CDT SAT SEP 19 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL WITH LIGHT AND GENERALLY NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON WILL FAVOR THE PLATEAU
AND HAVE MAINTAINED THE PROB30 GROUP FOR CSV AND SRB.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH AFTER 00Z, AND WINDS WILL TURN
SOUTHERLY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 99 75 98 75 / 20 0 10 10
CLARKSVILLE 99 73 99 72 / 0 0 0 0
CROSSVILLE 91 66 89 66 / 30 20 20 10
COLUMBIA 100 72 99 72 / 10 0 20 10
COOKEVILLE 94 70 92 70 / 30 20 20 10
JAMESTOWN 91 68 89 68 / 30 20 20 20
LAWRENCEBURG 98 71 97 71 / 20 10 20 10
MURFREESBORO 100 72 99 72 / 20 10 20 10
WAVERLY 98 74 97 73 / 0 0 0 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR TNZ005>010-023>033-
056>065-075-077-078-093>095.
SHORT TERM...UNGER
LONG TERM....UNGER
AVIATION.....CLEMENTS
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