159
FXUS64 KOHX 200405
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1005 PM CST WED NOV 19 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1005 PM CST WED NOV 19 2025
- HIGH RAIN CHANCES ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE THURSDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
- ANOTHER HIGH CHANCE FOR RAIN LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
- MILD TEMPERATURES LASTING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, THEN TURNING
SHARPLY COLDER BY THANKSGIVING.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1005 PM CST WED NOV 19 2025
LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG WILL BE IN PLACE OVERNIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING AS A FEW SHOWERS BEGIN TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
NEXT BIG WX SYSTEM. SOME AREAS MAY HAVE DENSE FOG, BUT UNCERTAIN
HOW WIDESPREAD THAT WILL BE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S.
DEEP, MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CAUSE RAIN TO SPREAD ACROSS THE
AREA THURSDAY, ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER MAY BE HEARD, BUT NO STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED. SOME BREAKS IN THE RAIN WILL OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT, BUT
RAIN WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD AGAIN FRIDAY AS A DEEP UPPER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST STATES TOWARD OUR
AREA. BY THE TIME THE BULK OF THE RAIN MOVES OUT OF OUR AREA LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT, MOST LOCATIONS WILL HAVE RECEIVED 1" TO 1.50".
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1005 PM CST WED NOV 19 2025
POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF SATURDAY WITH A DRIER AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER (BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL) PERIOD FROM MIDDAY
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THEN, ANOTHER SIMILAR LOOKING SYSTEM WILL
COME IN FOR MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER SOAKING, ROUGHLY
1" RAINFALL. ONCE AGAIN, SOME STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE, BUT WE ARE
NOT LOOKING FOR SEVERE WX.
FOLLOWING THE RAINY SYSTEM NEXT WEEK, A MAJOR PATTERN CHANGE WILL
OCCUR WITH AN ARCTIC FRONT BRINGING MUCH COLDER AIR BY
THANKSGIVING WITH COLD CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT WEEKEND HEADING
INTO THE START OF DECEMBER.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 521 PM CST WED NOV 19 2025
A VARIETY OF CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA, BUT ALL
SITES WILL TREND DOWNWARD TO IFR/LIFR OVERNIGHT AS AREAS OF FOG
AND STRATUS FORM, THEN SCATTERED SHOWERS BEGIN TO DEVELOP TOWARD
DAYBREAK. AFTER 18Z, WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL DEVELOP, KEEPING
CONDITIONS GENERALLY POOR FOR FLYING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT, MAINLY
NORTHEAST TO EAST.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 52 67 60 73 / 10 100 90 80
CLARKSVILLE 48 65 58 72 / 10 100 100 90
CROSSVILLE 48 68 57 68 / 0 70 90 90
COLUMBIA 52 72 60 73 / 10 100 80 90
COOKEVILLE 51 67 58 70 / 0 80 100 80
JAMESTOWN 49 66 56 69 / 0 70 100 80
LAWRENCEBURG 52 73 60 72 / 10 90 70 90
MURFREESBORO 52 69 60 73 / 10 90 90 90
WAVERLY 51 65 58 71 / 20 100 90 90
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION.....13
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