351
FXUS64 KOHX 040453
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1153 PM CDT FRI APR 3 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1146 PM CDT FRI APR 3 2026
- VERY WARM WITH HIGH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STRONGEST STORMS COULD PRODUCE SMALL HAIL
OR A DAMAGING WIND GUST.
- COOLER, MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY.
- WARM, DRY WEATHER WEDNESDAY THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1110 PM CDT FRI APR 3 2026
MIDDLE TENNESSEE IS STILL SITUATED IN A VERY WARM BUT DRY WARM
SECTOR THIS EVENING WITH RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING IN AREAS TO
OUR NORTH AND WEST NEAR SURFACE WARM/COLD FRONTS. THIS OVERALL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE EAST OVERNIGHT WITH
SHOWERS/STORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE TENNESSEE
RIVER AS EARLY AS NOON ON SATURDAY. WHILE THIS CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO BE SOMEWHAT FRAGMENTED AND IN A MUCH WEAKER STATE THAN
IT IS CURRENTLY, SOME STRONGER STORMS COULD PRODUCE SMALL HAIL OR
A STRONG TO POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. EITHER WAY, WE
WELCOME THIS RAINFALL TO THE AREA THAT HAS EXPERIENCED A VERY
WARM, DRY START TO THE SPRING SEASON WHICH IS LEADING TO EXPANDING
DROUGHT.
COLD FRONT PASSAGE WILL OCCUR SATURDAY EVENING INTO EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING WHICH WILL BRING A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS TO FOLLOW. COOLER,
STABLE WEATHER WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1110 PM CDT FRI APR 3 2026
AS MENTIONED ABOVE, COOLER/STABLE WEATHER WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE
REGION INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE AND NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. MONDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN SUNDAY, BUT A
REINFORCING FRONT/CLIPPER IS EXPECTED TO BRING THINGS DOWN A
COUPLE DEGREES FOR TUESDAY BEFORE A MORE SUBSTANTIAL WARM-UP
BEGINS ON WEDNESDAY. THIS PERIOD OF WARMING WEATHER IS EXPECTED
TO PERSIST INTO LATE NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO
ABOVE NORMAL ONCE AGAIN. UNFORTUNATELY MOISTURE VALUES WILL BE
SLOW TO RECOVER THANKS TO INFLUENCE FROM DEEP-LAYER RIDGING, SO
THERE'S NO MEANINGFUL RAIN CHANCES MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CDT FRI APR 3 2026
CONDITIONS ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE AIRPORTS ARE CURRENTLY QUIET
WITH A LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND AND INCREASING VFR CLOUDS. MARGINAL
LLWS IS ALSO IN THE AREA, ~30 KTS AT 2K FT.
TAFS REALLY GET BUSY LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON FROM A WEST
TO EAST PROGRESSION DUE TO AN APPROACHING LINE OF SHRA/TS NEAR AND
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. CONVECTION WILL BRING A THREAT OF LOW
VIS/CIG AS WELL AS CONVECTIVE WIND GUSTS. TS TIMING AT ALL TAF
SITES IS MENTIONED IN THE TEMPO GROUP.
AFTER FROPA, LINGERING RA/-RA IS EXPECTED FOR A FEW HOURS WITH
IFR/MVFR CIGS AND A TRANSITION TO NW WINDS. BNA TAF SHOWS RETURN
TO VFR BY ~08Z.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 67 83 48 65 / 0 80 90 0
CLARKSVILLE 67 79 45 63 / 10 90 80 0
CROSSVILLE 61 79 46 60 / 0 50 100 30
COLUMBIA 64 83 46 65 / 0 80 90 0
COOKEVILLE 64 79 46 60 / 0 60 100 10
JAMESTOWN 61 80 45 60 / 0 50 100 20
LAWRENCEBURG 64 82 47 64 / 0 70 100 0
MURFREESBORO 65 83 47 65 / 0 70 100 0
WAVERLY 67 80 45 64 / 10 90 80 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...SIZEMORE
LONG TERM....SIZEMORE
AVIATION.....SIZEMORE
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