194
FXUS64 KOHX 241139
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
639 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 635 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2026
- INCREASING SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY FRIDAY. THE SEVERE THREAT
IS VERY LOW, THOUGH A STRONG GUST OR TWO COULD OCCUR.
- THERE IS A THREAT FOR ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER MONDAY. STAY
TUNED FOR FORECAST UPDATES OVER THE WEEKEND.
- UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK, BRINGING
BENEFICIAL RAIN TO ALL OF MIDDLE TN.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1047 PM CDT THU APR 23 2026
CLEAR CONDITIONS PREVAIL OVERNIGHT WITH A LIGHT SOUTHERLY BREEZE.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. WE WILL
UNDERGO A PATTERN CHANGE STARTING TOMORROW AS SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST. AS OF NOW, THE RIDGE IS
HOLDING TIGHT THROUGH A CHUNK OF THE DAY TOMORROW, STIFLING OUR
ALREADY LIMITED OVERALL SEVERE CHANCES DURING THE DAY. WITH THAT
BEING SAID, A WEAKENING FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST IN THE
MORNING, AND DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH INSTABILITY IS AVAILABLE, A
FEW CELLS COULD POP OVER OUR WESTERN COUNTIES. FORCING IS WEAK
DURING THIS TIME AND LAPSE RATES ARE POOR, AROUND 6 C/KM OR LESS,
SO NOT FAVORABLE FOR SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS. LATER FRIDAY NIGHT, A
SHORTWAVE WILL RIPPLE THROUGH THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT, BRINGING AN
ADDITIONAL WAVE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE BETTER DYNAMICS WILL BE
DISPLACED TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST WITH THIS WAVE, HOWEVER THERE
WILL BE BETTER FORCING WITH BULK SHEAR AROUND 20 KTS, SO PRETTY
MARGINAL OVERALL, BUT A STRONG GUST OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.
THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE ITS TREK EAST, BRINGING WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TO ALL OF MIDDLE TN INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS SATURDAY. ONCE SHOWERS CLEAR THE PLATEAU, A
QUICK RIDGE WILL BUILD IN AND STICK AROUND THROUGH MONDAY MORNING,
KEEPING THINGS MOSTLY DRY AND WARM. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY
BE NEAR 80.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1047 PM CDT THU APR 23 2026
MONDAY...LET'S TALK ABOUT WHAT TO EXPECT FIRST. ALL MODES OF
SEVERE WEATHER STILL APPEAR POSSIBLE MONDAY, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND
WEST OF I-65. THAT MEANS HAIL, STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS, AND TORNADOES.
EXACT TIMING DETAILS REMAIN UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT GIVEN IT'S
STILL SEVERAL DAYS OUT, BUT THERE IS AN INCREASING SIGNAL THAT
THIS COULD BE A NIGHTTIME EVENT. WHETHER DAY OR NIGHT, WE
ENCOURAGE YOU TO REVIEW YOUR SAFETY PLANS NOW JUST IN CASE.
NOW, LET'S TALK SETUP. A SHARP, NEGATIVELY-TILTED SHORTWAVE WILL
PUSH OVER THE PLAINS WITH A LOW PRESSURE CENTER DEVELOPING AT THE
SURFACE. AS THIS LOW MOVES NORTHEAST, IT WILL DEEPEN AND THE LOW-
LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE TO BETWEEN 40-50 KTS. WITH THESE WINDS
BEING SOUTHERLY, WARM, MOIST UNSTABLE AIR WILL BE PULLED IN,
INCREASING DEWPOINTS AND IN TURN, INSTABILITY. BULK SHEAR WILL
ALSO TAKE A BIG JUMP TO AROUND 40-50 KTS WITH MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES OVER 7 C/KM, LENDING TO LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL. AS THE FRONT
NEARS, LOW-LEVEL HELICITY VALUES WILL START TO INCREASE, LENDING
TO A TORNADO THREAT. EAST OF I-65, THERE IS A PRETTY BIG DROP IN
ALL OF THE AFOREMENTIONED PARAMETERS, BUT THOSE INGREDIENTS ARE
STILL THERE, SO DON'T LET YOUR GUARD DOWN. AS OF NOW, THE
EVOLUTION OF THIS LOOKS TO BE A STRONG LINE OF STORMS WITH A MUCH
LOWER POTENTIAL FOR DISCRETE CELLS OUT AHEAD, BUT THIS WILL BE
SOMETHING TO MONITOR OVER THE COMING DAYS. WHILE THE BETTER
DYNAMICS OVERALL ARE JUST OFF TO THE NORTHWEST OF MIDDLE TN, WE
STILL HAVE ALL THE INGREDIENTS WE NEED FOR AN ALL-HAZARD SEVERE
THREAT, SO STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE ITS JOURNEY EAST, KEEPING LINGERING SHOWER
ACTIVITY AROUND THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. THE UPPER AIR PATTERN
REMAINS ACTIVE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH MULTIPLE WAVES
BRINGING ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF PRECIP/STORMS IN. IN GENERAL, THERE
IS A 20-40% POP IN EACH DAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY. THE GOOD NEWS IS
THIS WILL HELP OUR DRY, STRUGGLING SOILS OUT THERE. A COUPLE OF
INCHES WITH ALL OF THE SYSTEMS COMBINED APPEAR LIKELY, SO WHILE
IT WON'T BE A DROUGHT-BUSTER, IT WILL CERTAINLY HELP THE DEFICIT.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2026
A CONVECTIVE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF MISSOURI
AND ARKANSAS TOWARD TENNESSEE. CLOUDS AND SW WINDS WILL INCREASE
THIS MORNING ACCORDINGLY, BUT THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE ON A WEAKENING
TREND. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON CONVECTION
WILL BE AT CKV, BUT LEFT TAF MENTION OF THUNDER AT BNA AND MQY FOR
MID AFTERNOON DUE TO UNCERTAINTY.
BIGGEST IMPACTS TO MIDDLE TN AIRFIELDS ARE AFTER ~06Z TONIGHT WHEN
ADDITIONAL SHRA & ISO TS DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ALONG WITH MVFR
CIGS. IFR CIGS LOOK MORE LIKELY AFTER ~08Z AT BNA, MQY, AND CKV WHICH
SHOULD PERSIST INTO TOMORROW MORNING BEFORE CLEARING OCCURS ALONG WITH
EXITING SHRA.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 84 63 79 56 / 20 80 60 10
CLARKSVILLE 81 61 80 55 / 50 70 30 10
CROSSVILLE 79 57 72 51 / 20 70 90 20
COLUMBIA 84 61 79 55 / 20 80 70 10
COOKEVILLE 80 60 74 53 / 10 80 90 20
JAMESTOWN 79 57 73 51 / 10 80 90 20
LAWRENCEBURG 82 61 77 55 / 10 80 70 10
MURFREESBORO 84 62 79 55 / 10 80 80 20
WAVERLY 81 61 80 56 / 50 70 40 10
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...BAGGETT
LONG TERM....BAGGETT
AVIATION.....SIZEMORE
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