909
FXUS64 KOHX 031744
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1144 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1142 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2026
- AFTERNOON HIGHS 10-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEK. A COUPLE
OF RECORDS MAY FALL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
- UNSETTLED WEATHER THIS WEEKEND WITH MEDIUM TO HIGH RAIN CHANCES.
THE RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER OR FLOODING IS VERY LOW.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1059 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2026
THE SOUTHERLY BREEZE HAS KICKED UP THIS MORNING WITH MOISTURE
ADVECTION IN THE LOW LEVELS KEEPING SOME SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND. TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY SITTING IN THE 60S
AND ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE 70S ALONG AND WEST OF THE
PLATEAU. A 5-10 MPH SOUTH WIND WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL
HELP KEEP THE TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING MUCH. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. THE SPRING-LIKE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ON
WEDNESDAY WITH THE UPPER HIGH INFLUENCES OVER THE GULF PUSHING
NORTHWARD. MODELS DO SHOW A LOW CHANCE OF A SCATTERED SHOWER OR
TWO ALONG THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY BUT THE BULK OF THE RAIN WILL
STAY WELL NORTH OF THE AREA.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1059 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2026
TEMPERATURES START TO APPROACH RECORD TERRITORY ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WITH RECORD HIGHS OF 80 AND 83 RESPECTIVELY AT NASHVILLE.
NBM IS SHOWING A GREATER THAN 50% CHANCE OF BREAKING THOSE RECORDS
BOTH DAYS. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE IN THE NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY
AS A PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRIES TO WEAKEN THE UPPER RIDGE'S
NORTHERLY EXTENT. RAIN CHANCES LOOK LOWER ON FRIDAY BUT THERE WILL
BE SOME DIURNALLY DRIVEN LOW RAIN AND STORM CHANCES. THE NEXT
WIDESPREAD HIGH RAIN CHANCE WILL BE SATURDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE PARENT LOW WILL BE WELL NORTHEAST OF
THE AREA WITH MEDIOCRE SHEAR IN OUR AREA FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR,
BUT THERE SHOULD BE AMPLE INSTABILITY FOR A LOW CHANCE OF STRONG
STORMS. THE FRONT WASHES OUT AS IT MOVES THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
WITH OUR AREA BACK IN SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ON SUNDAY WHICH
MEANS OUR WARM PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1142 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2026
CIGS REMAIN MVFR ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE AT THIS TIME, BUT HEATING
AND A STRONG SOUTHERLY BREEZE SHOULD HELP SCATTER CLOUDS OUT THIS
AFTERNOON AND THAT'S THE PLAN FOR ALL TAF SITES. CKV LOOKS LIKE IT
WILL IMPROVE FIST, THEN OVER TO BNA AND MQY. WINDS WILL CALM THIS
EVENING, BUT IT LOOKS LIKE MVFR CIG POTENTIAL AGAIN TOMORROW
MORNING WITH SCATTERING AGAIN BY THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL FAVOR
MORE OF A SW DIRECTION TOMORROW, BUT ALMOST A REPEAT OF TODAY'S
WEATHER OVERALL.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 73 59 79 62 / 10 0 10 20
CLARKSVILLE 75 59 79 62 / 20 10 20 50
CROSSVILLE 63 52 73 57 / 10 0 10 10
COLUMBIA 70 59 79 61 / 0 0 10 20
COOKEVILLE 67 55 75 59 / 20 0 10 10
JAMESTOWN 66 53 74 58 / 20 0 10 10
LAWRENCEBURG 70 58 78 59 / 0 0 0 10
MURFREESBORO 71 59 79 61 / 10 0 10 10
WAVERLY 72 60 78 62 / 10 10 20 40
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...REAGAN
LONG TERM....REAGAN
AVIATION.....SIZEMORE
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