903
FXUS64 KOHX 200340
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1040 PM CDT SAT SEP 19 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1040 PM CDT SAT SEP 19 2026
- A HEAT ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH SUNDAY FOR MOST OF MIDDLE
TENNESSEE. THE HEAT WILL BEGIN TO EASE MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
- MAJOR HEAT RELIEF IS ON THE WAY WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING NEAR
NORMAL LEVELS STARTING WEDNESDAY.
- VERY LOW RAIN CHANCES THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGHER RAIN CHANCES SPREAD
AREAWIDE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A LOW RISK FOR STRONG
STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS EACH AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1040 PM CDT SAT SEP 19 2026
OUR HEATWAVE, OR MORE OPTIMISTICALLY, THE END OF OUR HEATWAVE IS THE
MAIN STORY. WE GET ONE MORE DAY WITH A HEAT ADVISORY, THEN A COUPLE
OF TRANSITION DAYS LEADING TO MORE TYPICAL LATE SEPTEMBER WEATHER.
SATURDAY WAS YET ANOTHER RECORD-SETTING DAY FOR NASHVILLE WITH A
HIGH OF 100. THE PREVIOUS RECORD FOR THE DATE WAS 97 SET IN 1925 AND
1954. THIS WAS THE 6TH 100+ DAY THIS SEPTEMBER. THE RECORD FOR 100+
DAYS IN SEPTEMBER IS 7 IN 1925.
SUNDAY WILL BE MUCH THE SAME, BUT PERHAPS A DEGREE OR 2 LOWER AS THE
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM LOSES JUST A LITTLE OF ITS GRIP. THERE
WILL BE VERY LOW RAIN CHANCES WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS
EAST OF I-65. JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT FOR A LOW-
END GUSTY WIND RISK.
MOVING INTO MONDAY, THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN STATES WILL WEAKEN
FURTHER AS A BROAD TROUGH PATTERN FORMS ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND GREAT
LAKES. THIS WILL CREATE A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN WITH A SERIES OF WEAK
DISTURBANCES MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND THE
WEAKENING RIDGE. CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
INCREASE AREA-WIDE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING (30 TO 40 PERCENT).
THERE WILL BE A LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY
WINDS.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY, CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
CLIMB INTO THE MEDIUM TO HIGH CATEGORY (40 PERCENT WEST TO NEAR
90 PERCENT PLATEAU) AS THE DEEPENING ROUGH PATTERN TO OUR NORTH
PUSHES A REAL COLD FRONT DOWN TOWARD THE TN VALLEY. SOME LOCAL
DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR, BUT IT WILL NOT BE A
WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN THAT WE MAY BE WISHING FOR. THE HEAT WILL
BACK OFF MORE FOR TUESDAY, ALTHOUGH SOME SPOTS WILL STILL TOP 90
DEGREES.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1040 PM CDT SAT SEP 19 2026
ASTRONOMICAL FALL BEGINS AT 704 PM CDT TUESDAY, AND THE AUTUMNAL
EQUINOX WILL COINCIDE WITH THE START OF MAJOR HEAT RELIEF FOR MIDDLE
TN. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS FOLLOWED BY A MUCH MORE
TYPICAL AIR MASS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD BE
STRONG INTO TUESDAY EVENING, BUT WE ARE NOT LOOKING FOR A MAJOR
SEVERE EVENT. TEMPERATURES AFTER THE FRONT, WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND, WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 80S FOR HIGHS AND LOWER 60S
FOR LOWS. THE PLATEAU WILL HAVE MOSTLY 70S AND 50S. THE COOLER AIR
WILL ALSO COME WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR LATE WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 618 PM CDT SAT SEP 19 2026
A SURFACE RIDGE AND STRONG UPPER HIGH CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE
WEATHER ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE THIS EVENING. TAFS ARE VFR. EXPECT
LIGHT/CALM WINDS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 75 98 75 97 / 0 10 0 30
CLARKSVILLE 73 99 72 96 / 0 0 0 30
CROSSVILLE 66 89 67 88 / 10 10 10 40
COLUMBIA 72 99 72 98 / 0 10 0 40
COOKEVILLE 70 92 70 91 / 10 10 10 30
JAMESTOWN 68 89 68 88 / 10 10 10 40
LAWRENCEBURG 71 97 71 96 / 0 10 10 40
MURFREESBORO 72 99 73 97 / 0 10 10 30
WAVERLY 74 97 73 95 / 0 0 0 30
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR TNZ005>010-023>033-
056>065-075-077-078-093>095.
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION.....ROSE
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page