005
FXUS64 KOHX 150515
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1215 AM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1211 AM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
- RAIN WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT.
- UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER WILL LAST THROUGH TODAY WITH RECORD
HIGHS POSSIBLE.
- A DRY, BREEZY COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE ON FRIDAY, BRINGING MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1031 PM CDT WED OCT 14 2026
RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE RIDING THE KY/TN STATE LINE TONIGHT FROM
WEST TO EAST. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO STAY NORTH OF I-40 AND
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE NIGHT. THERE IS A SLIM CHANCE FOR
SOME PATCHY FOG AFTER THE RAIN PASSES THROUGH OVERNIGHT, WITH
TEMPERATURES BOTTOMING OUT IN THE 60S.
THURSDAY SHOULD SHAKE OUT TO BE A NICE, ALBEIT HOT, DAY. THE
POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR RECORD TO BE BROKEN IN THE HIGH TEMPERATURE
DEPARTMENT, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S. BUT SKIES WILL
BE CLEARING UP THROUGH THE MORNING.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1031 PM CDT WED OCT 14 2026
THE COLD FRONT THAT LAGS BEHIND THE RAIN WE SAW TODAY IS EXPECTED TO
SWING THROUGH ON FRIDAY. THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE LOOKS TO BE DRY, WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF SOME LOW RAIN CHANCES ON THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU.
AFTER THIS, WE'RE NOT EXPECTING ANY RAIN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. OVERALL, WE'RE LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE 60S/70S AND
LOWS IN THE 30S AND 40S FOR THE WEEKEND. OUR TEMPERATURES WILL DROP
SO MUCH THAT WE COULD SEE OUR FIRST FROST OF THE SEASON ON THE
CUMBERLAND PLATEAU ON SUNDAY MORNING. SADLY, IT WILL ONLY BE A TASTE
OF FALL, AS THE RETURN OF CLEARER SKIES WILL ALSO BRING BACK THE
HEAT. HIGHS BY MID-WEEK NEXT WEEK WILL CREEP BACK UP INTO THE UPPER
70S.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1211 AM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST WITH THE EXCEPTION OF CKV WHERE DENSE FOG
WILL IMPACT THE TERMINAL THROUGH 14Z. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
OVERNIGHT WILL SHIFT SOUTHWESTERLY AFTER 15Z WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS
BETWEEN 5-10 KTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 92 63 69 46 / 10 0 20 0
CLARKSVILLE 91 58 66 44 / 10 10 10 0
CROSSVILLE 85 62 73 41 / 10 0 30 20
COLUMBIA 93 63 72 45 / 0 0 20 0
COOKEVILLE 88 63 70 44 / 10 0 40 10
JAMESTOWN 86 63 72 43 / 10 10 40 20
LAWRENCEBURG 91 63 73 44 / 0 0 20 0
MURFREESBORO 93 64 72 45 / 0 0 20 0
WAVERLY 90 59 64 45 / 10 0 20 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...HOLLEY
LONG TERM....HOLLEY
AVIATION.....BAGGETT
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