164
FXUS64 KOHX 121127
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
627 AM CDT THU MAR 12 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 627 AM CDT THU MAR 12 2026
- COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY, THEN WARMING UP
FOR THE WEEKEND.
- HIGH CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT LATE
SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY A HARD FREEZE MONDAY NIGHT.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1032 PM CDT WED MAR 11 2026
A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY TRACKING EAST THROUGH MIDDLE TN. WHILE
RAIN IS ONGOING, THESE SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT, TEMPERATURES ARE FALLING QUICKLY AND WILL
BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER-30S BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO BE GUSTY WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH AT
TIMES. A NICE, ALBEIT COOLER, THURSDAY IS THEN IN STORE. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY, GRADUALLY
TAPERING OFF THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE LOW
TO MID-50S, BUT FORTUNATELY, THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.
ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT IS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS DROPPING
AGAIN INTO THE 30S. TEMPERATURES WILL START TO REBOUND ON FRIDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S WITH STILL PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1032 PM CDT WED MAR 11 2026
THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. BY SUNDAY THOUGH, ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL MOVE ONTO THE PLAINS AND WILL SEND
A VERY STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH MIDDLE TN LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY
MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING HIGH RAIN CHANCES TO THE AREA.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL, AND WE REMAIN
NOT OUTLOOKED BY SPC. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AGAIN THOUGH
WITH NBM SHOWING WIND GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH AND A 40-60% CHANCE THAT
GUSTS EXCEED 40 MPH. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO FALL SHARPLY WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT. THESE FALLING TEMPERATURES DO GIVE A LOW
CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW BEHIND THE FRONT EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER, DUE TO THE RECENT WARMTH AND LACK OF SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE
BY THE TIME PRECIPITATION CHANGES TO SNOW, CHANCE FOR EVEN MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS IS LOW. THE START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK WILL BE COLD
WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE 40S AND LOWS IN THE 20S. TEMPERATURES
WILL STAY CHILLY THROUGH TUESDAY, BUT WILL GRADUALLY WARM UP
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 627 AM CDT THU MAR 12 2026
WINDS WILL BE AROUND 10-15 KNOTS SUSTAINED OUT OF THE NORTH AND
GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING, WITH SOME LOW CEILINGS
LINGERING AFTER THE RAIN. ONCE THE SYSTEM MOVES FAR ENOUGH EAST,
WINDS WILL LESSEN TO AROUND 5-10 KNOTS AFTER 18Z, AND SKIES WILL
BECOME CLR. WHILE WINDS ARE LIGHTER, THEY WILL SHIFT TO BE OUT OF
THE SW INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 56 38 68 42 / 0 0 0 0
CLARKSVILLE 56 39 66 39 / 0 0 0 0
CROSSVILLE 50 33 61 38 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBIA 56 36 66 40 / 0 0 0 0
COOKEVILLE 51 35 62 40 / 0 0 0 0
JAMESTOWN 51 33 61 37 / 0 0 0 0
LAWRENCEBURG 55 36 66 41 / 0 0 0 0
MURFREESBORO 56 35 66 40 / 0 0 0 0
WAVERLY 56 39 66 42 / 0 0 0 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...CLEMENTS
LONG TERM....CLEMENTS
AVIATION.....HOLLEY
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