782
FXUS64 KOHX 180505
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1105 PM CST WED DEC 17 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1101 PM CST WED DEC 17 2025
- HIGH RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING. CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ARE VERY LOW.
- WARM AND BREEZY CONDITIONS THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH AT TIMES.
- ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED THROUGH THE CHRISTMAS
HOLIDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1008 PM CST WED DEC 17 2025
AS A SHORTWAVE EXITS TO THE EAST, A STRONGER UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS
TAKING SHAPE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO
MAKE ITS WAY EAST THROUGH THURSDAY AND WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR HIGH
RAIN CHANCES ACROSS MIDDLE TN. AS THIS SYSTEM AND ITS COLD FRONT
APPROACHES, SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM MOISTURE INTO
THE AREA, RESULTING IN PWATS INCREASING TO AROUND ONE INCH (NEAR THE
90TH PERCENTILE FOR MID-DECEMBER). THIS MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR RAIN SHOWERS TO DEVELOP BY LATE
MORNING, BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES, AND THEN TAPER OFF LATE EVENING BEHIND THE FRONT.
DESPITE AN IMPRESSIVE JET WITH 500MB WINDS NEAR 80 KNOTS AND 50-60
KNOTS AT 850MB, SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED. THIS IS STILL DUE
TO VERY LIMITED INSTABILITY WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING SBCAPE
LESS THAN 100 J/KG. IT'LL STILL BE WINDY THOUGH WITH A TIGHT SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT SETTING UP AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO GUST 25-35 MPH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GUSTS
NEAR 40 MPH AREN'T OUT OF THE QUESTION, BUT THAT PROBABILITY IS LOW
AT 20-30% SO DON'T ANTICIPATE A WIND ADVISORY BEING ISSUED AT THIS
TIME.
BEHIND THE FRONT, TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER ON FRIDAY WITH
FORECAST HIGHS IN THE 40S - ABOUT 15 DEGREES COOLER COMPARED TO
THURSDAY. OVERALL, IT'LL BE A NICE DAY THOUGH WITH DRY AND SUNNY
CONDITIONS THANKS TO WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1008 PM CST WED DEC 17 2025
TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY REBOUND AS WE START THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS
ON SATURDAY RETURNING TO THE MID AND UPPER-50S. THIS WARMING TREND
CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK, RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AS WE
APPROACH CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT
NOTHING LOOK HAZARDOUS AS WE GO INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEK. MODELS ARE
DEPICTING A COUPLE SHORTWAVES THAT ARE ENOUGH TO KEEP LOW RAIN
CHANCES IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST - MAINLY SUNDAY AND TUESDAY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1101 PM CST WED DEC 17 2025
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH STREAMING MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS. CONDITIONS WILL CHANGE THOUGH THURSDAY AS A STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES. CIGS WILL FALL TO MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS BY MID TO
LATE MORNING AS RAIN SHOWERS MOVE INTO THE AREA. POCKETS OF
HEAVIER RAIN MAY ALSO CAUSE REDUCED VISIBILITY. THE THREAT FOR
LIGHTNING IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION IN TAFS. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL ALSO INCREASE WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. RAIN SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END FROM
WEST TO EAST AFTER 00Z WITH IMPROVING CEILINGS, AND WINDS WILL
BECOME WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 44 62 31 45 / 10 90 90 0
CLARKSVILLE 45 61 28 42 / 10 90 60 0
CROSSVILLE 38 56 27 40 / 10 90 90 0
COLUMBIA 43 61 31 46 / 10 90 80 0
COOKEVILLE 40 58 28 40 / 10 90 100 0
JAMESTOWN 38 56 26 39 / 0 90 100 0
LAWRENCEBURG 43 60 31 46 / 10 90 80 0
MURFREESBORO 42 61 31 45 / 10 90 90 0
WAVERLY 45 59 28 42 / 10 90 60 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...CLEMENTS
LONG TERM....CLEMENTS
AVIATION.....CLEMENTS
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