332
FXUS64 KOHX 171732
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1232 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1218 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2026
- HIGH CHANCE FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH
A LOW CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL ARE THE MAIN THREATS.
- DRY CONDITIONS RETURN FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY, BUT RAIN
AND STORM CHANCES INCREASE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1054 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2026
UNFORTUNATELY, WE HAVE HAD TO SAY GOODBYE TO THE PLEASANT
CONDITIONS WE HAVE ENJOYED THE PAST FEW DAYS. AS OUR WINDS HAVE
SHIFTED TO THE SOUTH AS OPPOSED TO THE MORE ZONAL FLOW WE
EXPERIENCED THE PAST DAY OR TWO, ABUNDANT MOISTURE HAS BEEN PULLED
BACK UP INTO OUR AREA FROM THE GULF. COMBINE THE INCREASED
MOISTURE CONTENT WITH OUR TEMPERATURES RISING BACK INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 80S AND YOU GET THE UNPLEASANT, MUGGY CONDITIONS WE ARE
ALL FAR TOO USED TO IN LATE JUNE. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. IF YOU ARE LOOKING TO DO ANYTHING OUTDOORS,
TODAY IS THE BEST DAY TO DO IT UNTIL SATURDAY.
AS DEEP MOISTURE SURROUNDING TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR IN THE WESTERN
GULF IS BEING FUNNELED NORTHEAST INTO OUR AREA, IT WILL MEET A
COLD FRONT ADVANCING TO THE SOUTHEAST FROM OUR NORTHWEST, PLACING
OUR REGION RIGHT IN THE CROSSHAIRS. DUE TO THE MEETING OF THESE
TWO SYSTEMS, CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE FOR A SEVERE THREAT. THIS
EVENT LOOKS TO BE A DAMAGING WIND AND HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT. THE
TIMING OF THE STRONGEST STORMS LOOKS TO BE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING AS DAYTIME HEATING MAKES THE ATMOSPHERE INCREASINGLY
UNSTABLE. AS WE HEAD INTO THURSDAY NIGHT, ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE
DEEP MOISTURE AVAILABLE TO WORK WITH, THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING BECOMES THE PRIMARY THREAT. WE
REMAIN OUTLOOKED FOR A SLIGHT EXCESSIVE RAINFALL RISK BY THE WPC,
THOUGH IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1054 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2026
AFTER THE SEVERE THREAT HAS PASSED, FRIDAY MORNING WILL REMAIN
WET UNTIL THE FRONT PASSES FRIDAY AROUND NOON. THE FRONT WILL COOL
US OFF A BIT AND BRING US DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF FRIDAY
AND ON SATURDAY. THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION MENTIONING THE
TRANSITION INTO ANOTHER ACTIVE PATTERN FASTER THAN EXPECTED STILL
HOLDS. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ARE FORECAST
WITH ADDITIONAL INCREASES INTO MONDAY DUE TO ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO THE REGION. LATEST GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLES
SUGGEST HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL. THE MOST RECENT NBM GUIDANCE
DEPICTS A 30 TO 45 PERCENT CHANCE OF TWO INCHES OR MORE RAINFALL
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
MIDDLE TENNESSEE. IT IS NOT A HUGE CONCERN RIGHT NOW, THOUGH IT IS
WORTH MENTIONING. THE RAIN CHANCES BACK OFF ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY, THOUGH THE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL REMAIN.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1218 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE FOR THE THE REST OF THE DAY. SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS SPEEDS OF 12 TO 16 KNOTS, WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS
PERSISTING THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. INTO TOMORROW MORNING, LOW-
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM, CREATING MVFR CONDITIONS. AROUND 15-18Z, SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS INITIATION WILL BEGIN AND PERSIST THROUGH THE
REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 76 88 69 85 / 20 80 50 10
CLARKSVILLE 76 86 66 84 / 20 80 30 0
CROSSVILLE 70 81 66 80 / 10 70 80 30
COLUMBIA 74 86 68 85 / 20 80 50 30
COOKEVILLE 73 83 67 81 / 20 80 80 10
JAMESTOWN 71 83 65 81 / 10 80 80 10
LAWRENCEBURG 73 84 68 83 / 20 60 50 30
MURFREESBORO 75 87 69 85 / 20 80 60 20
WAVERLY 75 86 67 84 / 10 80 40 10
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...SIZEMORE/SEIDER
LONG TERM....SIZEMORE/SEIDER
AVIATION.....CLEMENTS/SEIDER
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