256
FXUS64 KOHX 242356
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
656 PM CDT SAT OCT 24 2026
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 649 PM CDT SAT OCT 24 2026
- MILD, SUNNY DAYS AND COOL, CLEAR NIGHTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE END OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
- NO RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT, BUT THE WEATHER PATTERN
WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT NEXT WEEKEND.
- DROUGHT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO WORSEN.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 649 PM CDT SAT OCT 24 2026
THE SURFACE RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN PARKED TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF
MIDDLE TENNESSEE HAS FINALLY COME THROUGH AND NOW TRAILS ALONG THE
APPALACHIANS. SURFACE WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE SOUTH AND DEW
POINTS HAVE STARTED TO COME UP. IT APPEARS THAT RADIATION FOG MAY
BE A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT AS DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS
SHRINK TO NEAR ZERO IN MANY SPOTS.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1055 AM CDT SAT OCT 24 2026
ANOTHER COOL, DRY, AND SUNNY DAY IS UNDERWAY ACROSS MIDDLE TN.
THIS MORNING'S UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS PLACED A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
MIDLEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ARKLATEX REGION, LEADING TO NORTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT FOR THE TN VALLEY. THIS IS PART OF THE REASON WE HAVE SUCH
PLEASANT HUMIDITY VALUES; COOL, DRY AIR IS BEING ADVECTED ALONG
THE RIDGE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS. EXPECT A PERSISTENCE FORECAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THIS SAME PATTERN WILL SET UP AGAIN
TOMORROW.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1055 AM CDT SAT OCT 24 2026
THE MAJORITY OF THE WEEK IS EXPECTED TO FEATURE BROAD RIDGING OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS, WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES 5-10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. DESPITE THIS ABNORMALLY WARM REGIME, IT WILL STILL
FEEL QUITE PLEASANT TO THE AVERAGE PERSON. "NORMAL" TEMPERATURES
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE AROUND 70 DEGREES IN THE AFTERNOON, SO
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S IS ANOMALOUS BUT NOT
UNCOMFORTABLY WARM. HUMIDITY REMAINS LOW THROUGH THE WEEK AS WELL.
WITH NO RAIN IN SIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, AREAWIDE
DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO WORSEN.
YOU'LL HAVE TO LOOK BEYOND THE CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD FOR SIGNS
OF A PATTERN SHIFT. LONG RANGE ENSEMBLES FINALLY HINT AT A
TRANSITION TO MORE TO A TROUGHING REGIME STARTING NEXT SATURDAY
(HALLOWEEN). LREF PROBABILITIES OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL (0.01")
JUMP UP TO 30-40% SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BE
SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON FOR TRICK-OR-TREATING NIGHT. SEVERAL
SOLUTIONS ARE MUCH LATER WITH THE ONSET OF PRECIP ON SUNDAY, BUT
WORTH KEEPING AN EYE ON FOR THE FEW OUTLIERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 531 PM CDT SAT OCT 24 2026
ABOUT AS PERFECT WEATHER AS YOU CAN HAVE WITH VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AND BEYOND. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE LESS THAN
5KTS, WITH NO REAL DOMINANT DIRECTION. PERHAPS SLIGHTLY SOUTHERLY
TO EASTERLY ON OCCASION BETWEEN 12Z AND 00Z LIKE WHAT WAS
OBSERVED TODAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 48 77 48 76 / 0 0 0 0
CLARKSVILLE 47 79 48 77 / 0 0 0 0
CROSSVILLE 42 71 42 71 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBIA 46 78 46 77 / 0 0 0 0
COOKEVILLE 46 73 45 72 / 0 0 0 0
JAMESTOWN 45 72 44 72 / 0 0 0 0
LAWRENCEBURG 45 76 45 75 / 0 0 0 0
MURFREESBORO 46 78 46 76 / 0 0 0 0
WAVERLY 48 76 49 75 / 0 0 0 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE.......ROSE
SHORT TERM...DIRKES
LONG TERM....DIRKES
AVIATION.....05
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