798
FXUS64 KOHX 070511
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1211 AM CDT WED OCT 7 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1208 AM CDT WED OCT 7 2026
- DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY WITH COOL NIGHTS AND WARM
DAYS.
- HIGH RAIN CHANCES THIS WEEKEND. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1-2" ARE
EXPECTED, WITH A LOW CHANCE (<30%) OF 3" OR MORE. HEAVIEST
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
- TRANSITION BACK TO WARM, DRY WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1155 PM CDT TUE OCT 6 2026
BROAD NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PERSISTS ACROSS THE REGION WITH A
LARGE FOOTPRINT OF HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS. MIDDLE TENNESSEE REMAINS DRY AND STABLE WEATHER-WISE. WARM
AFTERNOONS AND COOL NIGHTS ARE FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE WORK
WEEK, AND NO RAIN IS FORECAST DESPITE THE PASSAGE OF A MOISTURE-
DEPRIVED SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1155 PM CDT TUE OCT 6 2026
WEEKEND WEATHER IS LOOKING A LITTLE MORE INTERESTING NOW THAT
ORGANIZATION OF A TROPICAL SYSTEM IS UNDERWAY IN THE SOUTHWEST
GULF. MEDIUM-RANGE GUIDANCE HAS REMAINED FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH
THIS SYSTEM PROGRESSING NORTH BETWEEN A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE
BAHAMAS AND AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE A FAVORABLE TRAJECTORY
INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON SATURDAY. AS SUCH, PRESENCE OF THIS
RESIDUAL TROPICAL CYCLONE AND ANOMALOUS MOISTURE HAS LED TO
FURTHER INCREASES IN RAIN CHANCES/AMOUNTS THIS WEEKEND. GENERALLY
SPEAKING, RAIN AMOUNTS OF 1-2" ARE FORECAST ACROSS MIDDLE
TENNESSEE, WITH A LOW CHANCE (<30%) OF AMOUNTS 3" OR MORE.
HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING. THANKFULLY THE RATHER PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE
SYSTEM IS KEEPING RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN CHECK. THIS IS DUE TO THE
TROPICAL LOW MERGING WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THUS, AT THIS TIME, WE DON'T EXPECT SIGNIFICANT
IMPACTS TO MIDDLE TENNESSEE - JUST BENEFICIAL RAINFALL AND PERHAPS
SOME BREEZY WINDS. NONETHELESS, WE'LL MONITOR FORECAST CHANGES
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS CLOSELY. WE SHOULD TRANSITION BACK TO
DRIER, WARMER WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK AFTER THIS SYSTEM DEPARTS
TO THE NORTHEAST.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1208 AM CDT WED OCT 7 2026
VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
PATCHY FOG AT CSV AND SRB. LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME WSW
AROUND 7KT FOR DAYTIME WEDNESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 85 59 86 57 / 0 0 0 0
CLARKSVILLE 85 58 86 55 / 0 0 0 0
CROSSVILLE 78 54 81 52 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBIA 86 56 88 55 / 0 0 0 0
COOKEVILLE 79 56 81 55 / 0 0 0 0
JAMESTOWN 78 56 79 53 / 0 0 0 0
LAWRENCEBURG 85 56 86 54 / 0 0 0 0
MURFREESBORO 85 56 87 55 / 0 0 0 0
WAVERLY 82 58 84 57 / 0 0 0 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...SIZEMORE
LONG TERM....SIZEMORE
AVIATION.....13
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