533
FXUS64 KOHX 060344
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1044 PM CDT FRI JUN 5 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1044 PM CDT FRI JUN 5 2026
- RAIN-FREE WEATHER WITH LOWER HUMIDITY THROUGH SATURDAY.
- TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S THIS
WEEKEND, WITH SOME 90S POSSIBLE LATER NEXT WEEK.
- RAIN AND STORM CHANCES WILL RETURN ON SUNDAY AND EXTEND INTO
NEXT WEEK. THE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS IS VERY LOW FOR THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1044 PM CDT FRI JUN 5 2026
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN US IS KEEPING US IN A DRY
PATTERN FOR THE MOMENT. DON'T GET TOO ATTACHED THOUGH, AS A PATTERN
SHIFT IS INCOMING SUNDAY. FOR NOW THOUGH, HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 80S
(APPROACHING 90 DEGREES) SATURDAY, WITH A BIT MORE HUMIDITY AS OUR
SOUTHERLY MOISTURE FLOW INCREASES. THAT BEING SAID, COULD FEEL A
LITTLE WARMER OUT THERE THAN IT ACTUALLY IS IF YOU HAVE ANY SATURDAY
OUTDOOR PLANS.
SUNDAY WILL BRING ON THE START OF A WETTER PATTERN AS OUR HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OUT TO SEA AND LEAVES US VULNERABLE TO
APPROACHING SYSTEMS. A SURFACE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
TENNESSEE WITH A DECENT TROUGH/OPEN WAVE TO OUR WEST IN THE MIDWEST.
NEEDLESS TO SAY COMBINING THIS WEAK FORCING WITH AMPLE GULF MOISTURE
FLOW, WE WILL HAVE SOME INSTABILITY AND CONVECTION OUT THERE.
CONVECTION WILL BE MORE ON THE SCATTERED SIDE, AND WE'RE NOT
EXPECTING ANY SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME. IF THERE IS ANY CHANCE OF
AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM, THE BEST AREA LOOKS TO BE WEST OF I-65 IN
MIDDLE TENNESSEE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1044 PM CDT FRI JUN 5 2026
THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH/OPEN WAVE WILL PASS THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT. AHEAD AND ALONG THIS SHORTWAVE PASSAGE,
WE CAN EXPECT SOME POSSIBLY ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER, GIVEN THE
DECENT FORCING MECHANISM AND THE ALREADY PRESENT MOISTURE FLOW AND
INSTABILITY. ONCE AGAIN, THE SEVERE THREAT IS LOW WITH THIS SYSTEM,
BUT AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM COULD OCCUR.
EVEN THOUGH WE WON'T SEE ANY ORGANIZED SYSTEMS AFTER MONDAY, DAYTIME
CONVECTION WILL BE IN FULL SWING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. SO
SOME SCATTERED/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE HOTTEST PARTS OF
THE DAY CAN BE EXPECTED EVEN AS A RIDGE REBUILDS TO OUR WEST ON
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE HIGHER SIDE, AND THE
MOISTURE WILL KEEP ON COMING ALOFT, KEEPING OUR DEWPOINTS MOIST. AS
THE RIDGE DEEPENS ITS GRIP ON OUR AREA, EXPECT SOME 90 DEGREE
TEMPERATURES DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. REMEMBER TO STAY
HYDRATED AND TAKE PLENTY OF BREAKS IN THE AC, SHADE, OR THE POOL IF
YOU HAVE SOME OUTDOOR PLANS!
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 534 PM CDT FRI JUN 5 2026
VFR CONDITIONS FOR THIS TAF CYCLE WITH LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 66 89 70 85 / 0 0 10 60
CLARKSVILLE 66 88 70 86 / 0 0 10 40
CROSSVILLE 60 82 64 80 / 0 0 0 30
COLUMBIA 64 87 68 83 / 0 0 10 70
COOKEVILLE 63 84 67 82 / 0 0 0 40
JAMESTOWN 61 84 64 84 / 0 0 0 20
LAWRENCEBURG 63 85 68 81 / 0 0 10 80
MURFREESBORO 64 88 68 85 / 0 0 10 50
WAVERLY 66 87 70 84 / 0 0 10 70
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...HOLLEY
LONG TERM....HOLLEY
AVIATION.....UNGER
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