852
FXUS64 KOHX 291123
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
623 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 623 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2026
- NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TODAY AND MORE TOLERABLE
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
- MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURN FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. A WET WEEKEND IS IN STORE FOR
MIDDLE TN.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1034 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2026
WHO'S READY FOR FALL? I KNOW I AM. AFTER A COUPLE MORE DAYS WITH
HEAT INDEX VALUES OVER 110 DEGREES, WE'RE GOING TO CATCH SEVERAL
DAYS OF RELIEF STARTING TOMORROW. THIS WILL COME BEHIND THE PASSAGE
OF A VERY UNSEASONAL COLD FRONT PASSAGE THIS EVENING. AT FORECAST
TIME, THE COLD FRONT HAS ALL BUT MOVED SOUTH OF MIDDLE TN HOWEVER,
YOU'D NEVER KNOW IT AS DEW POINTS REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
NICE AND STICKY. THIS WILL START TO CHANGE TOMORROW AS DEW POINTS
WILL SLIP BACK INTO THE 60S AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE RIGHT AROUND
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR -- THANKFULLY -- AND THIS SHOULD BE
THE CASE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1034 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2026
THE OTHER THING THAT THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BRING US IS MUCH DRIER
CONDITIONS. THIS WILL GIVE OUR SOILS AN OPPORTUNITY TO RECOVER,
WHICH SEVERAL AREAS IN THE MID-STATE NEED BEFORE RAINS RETURN.
SPEAKING OF, THAT NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL REAR ITS HEAD ON
SATURDAY. YES, JUST IN TIME FOR THE WEEKEND, AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
DIG OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE TN/OHIO VALLEYS. MODELS
AREN'T HANDLING THE ARRIVAL OF SAID RAIN VERY WELL. SOME HAVE
ARRIVAL FRIDAY NIGHT AND OTHER HOLD OFF UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING.
WE'LL WORK OUT THOSE DETAILS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. EITHER
WAY, THERE'S A MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE
WET. WHILE I'M STILL NOT SEEING A SIGNAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER, THERE
HAS BEEN TALK ABOUT EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THIS WEEKEND. NOW, I'M NOT
POO-POOING THE IDEA COMPLETELY. HOWEVER, LOOKING AT NBM PROBS OVER
THE LAST FEW RUNS, THE LIKELIHOOD OF SEEING MORE THAN 1.5 INCHES
STANDS AT ABOUT 15%. THIS IS WHERE THE RECOVERY TIME THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WORKWEEK MAY COME INTO PLAY. WE'LL FINE TUNE THIS OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, BUT FOR NOW, WE CAN EXPECT TEMPERATURES AT
OR JUST BELOW NORMAL AND A WET WEEKEND TO COME.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 623 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2026
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NW
THIS AFTERNOON, AND STAY BETWEEN 5-10 KNOTS. WINDS WILL THEN
LESSEN TO LESS THAN 5 KNOTS AFTER 0Z THURSDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 91 64 87 56 / 0 0 0 0
CLARKSVILLE 90 66 87 65 / 0 0 0 0
CROSSVILLE 84 59 82 59 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBIA 91 67 88 64 / 0 0 0 0
COOKEVILLE 85 63 82 61 / 0 0 0 0
JAMESTOWN 84 61 82 59 / 0 0 0 0
LAWRENCEBURG 90 66 86 63 / 0 0 0 0
MURFREESBORO 91 67 87 64 / 0 0 0 0
WAVERLY 91 67 88 65 / 0 0 0 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...UNGER
LONG TERM....UNGER
AVIATION.....HOLLEY
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