860
FXUS64 KOHX 101731
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1231 PM CDT SAT OCT 10 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1223 PM CDT SAT OCT 10 2026
- REMNANTS OF ISAIAS ARE BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS
TO MIDDLE TENNESSEE. WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN
HIGHER ELEVATIONS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
- ADDITIONAL RAINFALL UP TO 1.0" IS POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY.
FLOODING RAINS ARE NO LONGER EXPECTED.
- WARM, DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES WELL
ABOVE-NORMAL MOST DAYS.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1155 AM CDT SAT OCT 10 2026
THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ISAIAS IS CURRENTLY SITTING
OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA. THE LOW IS MAKING A SLOW PROGRESSION NORTH,
BUT THE SURROUNDING WIND AND MOISTURE FIELDS HAVE MOVED ACROSS
MIDDLE TENNESSEE THIS MORNING. THIS HAS BROUGHT WIDESPREAD LIGHT
TO MODERATE RAIN ALONG A DEFORMATION AXIS AND GUSTY WINDS WHERE
POCKETS OF MIXING HAVE OCCURRED UNDER A ROBUST LOW-LEVEL JET.
WINDS ALOFT, JUST AS HIGH AS 1,000 FT AGL, ARE 50 KTS PER THE
KOHX VAD. THANKFULLY THE LACK OF INSTABILITY AND TROPICAL PWS HAS
KEPT DEEP CONVECTION OUT OF THE AREA (SITTING OVER GEORGIA AND
THE CAROLINAS) WHICH HAS SQUASHED ANY THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER OR
FLOODING FOR HERE. HOWEVER, WE'LL CONTINUE TO SEE BREEZY WINDS
WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE WEST OF THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU.
GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS COULD KNOCK DOWN TREES OR TREE LIMBS.
WINDS AND RAIN RATES WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THIS EVENING AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES THANKS TO THE SURFACE LOW MOVING UP
THROUGH TENNESSEE. WRAP-AROUND WINDS AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
SUPPORT LINGERING LIGHT RAIN, DRIZZLE, AND LOW CLOUDS THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING WITH GRADUAL CLEARING EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1155 AM CDT SAT OCT 10 2026
ONCE WE LOSE PRESENCE OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ISAIAS ON SUNDAY,
MIDDLE TENNESSEE WILL TRANSITION QUICKLY BACK INTO WARM, DRY
WEATHER ON MONDAY WITH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE WELL ABOVE-NORMAL MOST DAYS NEXT
WEEK WITH HIGHS APPROACHING 90 DEGREES MID WEEK. LOW RAIN/STORM
CHANCES ARE IN THE FORECAST MID TO LATE WEEK WITH INFLUENCE FROM
AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE FRONT, BUT MODELS ARE IN
DISAGREEMENT ABOUT THE PROGRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM THANKS TO
STUBBORN RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CDT SAT OCT 10 2026
REMNANTS OF ISAIAS ARE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. THIS IS BRINGING
WIDESPREAD -RA WITH EMBEDDED SHRA. THIS TURBULENT CONVECTION,
THOUGH WEAK, IS CAUSING BRIEF VIS REDUCTIONS TO 2-3 SM AND WIND
GUSTS 20-30 KTS. OVERALL CIGS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE AT MOST TERMINALS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, BUT A TREND TO MVFR IS FORECAST THIS
EVENING. FURTHER CIG REDUCTIONS TO IFR ARE FORECAST TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW MORNING AS THE RESIDUAL SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO TN. -RA
OR DZ WILL CONTINUE TO BRING PERIODS OF MVFR VIS THROUGH TOMORROW
MORNING ALONG WITH LOW CIGS. CLEARING IS FORECAST TOMORROW
AFTERNOON WITH W TO NW WINDS BEHIND THE EXITING LOW PRESSURE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 60 74 57 88 / 90 30 0 0
CLARKSVILLE 58 76 57 89 / 90 30 0 0
CROSSVILLE 56 65 54 79 / 90 60 10 0
COLUMBIA 58 75 56 88 / 80 20 0 0
COOKEVILLE 59 67 55 81 / 90 60 10 0
JAMESTOWN 59 67 57 80 / 90 70 20 0
LAWRENCEBURG 57 74 55 87 / 80 20 0 0
MURFREESBORO 59 74 56 88 / 80 40 0 0
WAVERLY 57 74 58 87 / 80 10 0 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TNZ005>011-023>034-
056>066-075-077>080-093>095.
SHORT TERM...SIZEMORE
LONG TERM....SIZEMORE
AVIATION.....SIZEMORE
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