417
FXUS64 KOHX 161038
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
538 AM CDT SAT MAY 16 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 536 AM CDT SAT MAY 16 2026
- SUMMER-LIKE TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH HIGHS REACHING THE LOW-90S WEST OF THE PLATEAU.
- LOW CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ALONG KENTUCKY BORDER
TODAY.
- MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS MID NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1029 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2026
THE MAIN STORY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL STILL BE HOTTER
TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL WARM INTO THE MID AND
UPPER-80S, AND NASHVILLE'S FIRST 90 DEGREE DAY APPEARS INEVITABLE ON
SUNDAY WITH MANY LOCATIONS WEST OF THE PLATEAU GETTING INTO THE LOW-
90S. AS FAR AS RAIN GOES, THERE'S STILL ONLY A LOW CHANCE FOR THAT
ON SATURDAY AS A SYSTEM TRACKS TO OUR NORTH. LATEST CAM RUNS
CONTINUE TO SHOW MOST OF THE ACTIVITY TO OUR NORTH, BUT WON'T RULE
OUT A SHOWER OR STORM NEAR THE TN/KY BORDER SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
NOTHING IMPACTFUL IS EXPECTED WITH FORECAST RAIN AMOUNTS STILL ONLY
A FEW HUNDREDTHS.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1029 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2026
THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES
PEAKING INTO THE LOW-90S ON MONDAY. OUR NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN IS STILL
ON TRACK FOR THE MID-WEEK PERIOD AS A LARGE TROUGH WITH A COLD FRONT
TAKES SHAPE TO OUR WEST. LATE TUESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY HAS THE
HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES. PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING 0.50" THROUGH
WEDNESDAY HAS COME UP TO AROUND 70-80% WITH THE WESTERN HALF OF
MIDDLE TN BEING FAVORED FOR HIGHER AMOUNTS WITH 40-50% PROBABILITY OF
GETTING ABOVE ONE INCH.
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN LATE WEEK AS THE FRONT TRACKS
SOUTH LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. RAIN LOOKS TO LINGER INTO
THURSDAY BEHIND THE FRONT, BUT DRIER AIR WILL FILTER FROM THE NORTH
TO END THE WEEK AND TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY START TO WARM BACK
UP AGAIN.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 536 AM CDT SAT MAY 16 2026
VFR THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD. DAYTIME WINDS WILL BE SOUTH WITH A
FEW GUSTS REACHING 15-20KT. LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT. SKIES WILL
FEATURE BKN-OVC ALTO-CU AND CIRRUS AND A FEW DIURNAL CUMULUS
CLOUDS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 88 64 92 68 / 0 10 0 0
CLARKSVILLE 87 64 91 68 / 10 10 0 0
CROSSVILLE 82 59 86 63 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBIA 86 61 90 66 / 0 0 0 0
COOKEVILLE 84 61 88 66 / 0 0 0 0
JAMESTOWN 86 59 89 64 / 0 0 0 0
LAWRENCEBURG 84 61 88 66 / 0 0 0 0
MURFREESBORO 87 62 91 67 / 0 0 0 0
WAVERLY 87 65 91 68 / 10 10 0 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...CLEMENTS
LONG TERM....CLEMENTS
AVIATION.....13
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