411  
FNUS75 KGJT 150245  
FWSGJT  
 
SPOT FORECAST FOR BUCKHORN VALLEY FIRE...VAIL POLICE DEPARTMENT  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO  
845 PM MDT SUN AUG 14 2022  
 
FORECAST IS BASED ON FORECAST START TIME OF 2100 MDT ON AUGUST 14.  
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER  
SERVICE.  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT  
FEW HOURS. COVERAGE WILL DECREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT A CHANCE WILL  
STILL REMAIN FOR AN ODD SHOWER OR STORM TO MOVE OVER OR NEAR THE  
FIRE. ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE ABLE TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS  
TO 40 MPH, CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING, AND BRIEF, BUT VERY HEAVY,  
RAIN. EXPECT A LULL TOMORROW MORNING WITH MORE CONVECTION FIRING  
AFTER 12PM. EXPECT VERY HEAVY RAIN, GUSTY WINDS, AND MORE  
LIGHTNING TOMORROW AFTERNOON.  
   
REST OF TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80%) THEN BECOMING PARTLY  
CLOUDY (50-60%). SCATTERED SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING ISOLATED AFTER  
MIDNIGHT.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....49-54 F.  
MAX HUMIDITY........94-99%.  
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE EAST  
OVERNIGHT. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED  
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR.  
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW.  
LAL.................3 UNTIL 0200, THEN 2 UNTIL 0400, THEN 3.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 5 MPH.  
CLEARING INDEX......80.  
   
MONDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80%). SCATTERED SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....74-79 F.  
MIN HUMIDITY........40-45%.  
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTH IN THE  
AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED  
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (11000 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO FAIR IN THE  
AFTERNOON.  
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW.  
LAL.................1 UNTIL 0900, THEN 2 UNTIL 1200, THEN 5 UNTIL  
1700, THEN 4.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......3600 FT AGL INCREASING TO 6100 FT AGL IN THE  
AFTERNOON.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 10 MPH.  
CLEARING INDEX......180 INCREASING TO 900 IN THE AFTERNOON.  
   
MONDAY NIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80%) THEN BECOMING PARTLY  
CLOUDY (50-60%). SCATTERED SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....47-52 F.  
MAX HUMIDITY........95-100%.  
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHEAST WINDS 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST  
OVERNIGHT. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED  
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR.  
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW.  
LAL.................3 UNTIL 2400, THEN 1.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......3100 FT AGL DECREASING TO 500 FT AGL OVERNIGHT.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT.  
CLEARING INDEX......320 DECREASING TO 50 OVERNIGHT.  
   
TUESDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (50-60%) THEN BECOMING MOSTLY  
CLOUDY (70-80%). ISOLATED SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING, THEN NUMEROUS  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....76-81 F.  
MIN HUMIDITY........32-37%.  
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHEAST WINDS 5 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS  
EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (21000 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO GOOD IN THE  
AFTERNOON.  
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW.  
LAL.................1 UNTIL 0900, THEN 2 UNTIL 1200, THEN 4.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......5300 FT AGL INCREASING TO 8100 FT AGL IN THE  
AFTERNOON.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 10 MPH.  
CLEARING INDEX......210 INCREASING TO 1050 IN THE AFTERNOON.  
 

 
FORECASTER...TOM RENWICK  
REQUESTED BY...GARRETT WILLIAMS  
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE  
.TAG 2216711.0/GJT  
.DELDT 08/14/22  
.FORMATTERVERSION 1.0.26  
.EMAIL GWILLIAMS@VAILGOV.COM  
 
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