140  
FNUS75 KGJT 162317  
FWSGJT  
 
SPOT FORECAST FOR TWIN BUTTES RX...DURANGO FIRE PROTECTION DISTRICT  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO  
517 PM MDT TUE OCT 16 2018  
 
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0600 MDT ON OCTOBER 17.  
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER  
SERVICE.  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL MOVE OVER THE BURN LOCATION VERY  
EARLY IN THE PREDAWN HOURS ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. EXPECT  
OVERCAST SKIES WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE  
MORNING. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF LULL IN PRECIPITATION,  
MOST LIKELY BETWEEN 10AM AND 2PM, HOWEVER SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL STILL  
BE IN THE VICINITY OF THE BURN LOCATION. BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN MOVE  
IN AFTER 2PM AND SCATTERED ACTIVITY WILL LAST THROUGH MIDNIGHT. WHILE A  
DEEP INVERSION IS UNLIKELY ON WEDNESDAY DUE TO CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION,  
MIXING WILL NOT BE ALL THAT STRONG DUE TO CLOUD COVER. THE BEST OPPORTUNITY  
FOR BURNING MAY COME IN THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED 10AM-2PM WINDOW IF SKIES  
CAN BRIEFLY THIN AND PRECIPITATION STOPS.  
   
WEDNESDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (90-100%). NUMEROUS SHOWERS IN THE  
MORNING, THEN SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE  
AFTERNOON.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....42-47 F.  
MIN HUMIDITY........55-60%.  
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHEAST WINDS 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST 5-10 MPH  
AFTER 10AM.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR.  
HAINES INDEX........2 VERY LOW.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......4100 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 14 MPH.  
   
WEDNESDAY NIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100%). NUMEROUS SHOWERS THROUGH THE NIGHT.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....33-38 F.  
MAX HUMIDITY........95-100%.  
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 MPH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (22000-23000 KNOT-FT).  
HAINES INDEX........2 VERY LOW.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......2300 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 12 MPH.  
   
THURSDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80%). NUMEROUS SHOWERS IN THE  
MORNING, THEN SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....46-51 F.  
MIN HUMIDITY........51-56%.  
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST WINDS 5-10 MPH  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (27000-33000 KNOT-FT).  
HAINES INDEX........2 VERY LOW.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......4900 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 10 MPH.  
 

 
FORECASTER...MIKE CHARNICK  
REQUESTED BY...SCOTT NIELSEN  
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED  
.TAG 1816941.0/GJT  
.DELDT 10/16/18  
.EMAIL SCOTT.NIELSEN@DURANGOFIRE.ORG  
 
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