400
FNUS75 KGJT 201137
FWSGJT
SPOT FORECAST FOR ABAJO PEAK PILE RX...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
537 AM MDT WED OCT 20 2021
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0600 MDT ON OCTOBER 20.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
DISCUSSION
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OVERHEAD TODAY,
LEADING TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS. WEAK WINDS ALOFT
WILL RESULT IN POOR SMOKE DISPERSAL AND INSUFFICIENT MIXING. WINDS
WILL INCREASE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES AND RETURNS THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATE THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TODAY
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (0-10%) THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY
(30-40%).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....40-45 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........38-43%.
WIND (20 FT)........DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 3 TO 6 MPH UNTIL 1000, THEN
BECOMING UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY (SOUTHWEST AT RIDGETOPS)
5 TO 10 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (11000-20000 KNOT-FT).
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW.
LAL.................1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......INCREASING TO 3300 FT AGL BY PEAK HEATING IN THE
AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 5 MPH.
CLEARING INDEX......160.
TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (20-30%).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....24-29 F.
MAX HUMIDITY........54-59%.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH IN THE EARLY EVENING,
BECOMING DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 3 TO 6 MPH AFTER
SUNSET.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (1000-6000 KNOT-FT).
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW.
LAL.................1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......LOWERING TO 1000 FT AGL OR LESS AFTER SUNSET.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 5 MPH.
CLEARING INDEX......60.
THURSDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50%).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....43-48 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........34-39%.
WIND (20 FT)........DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 3 TO 6 MPH UNTIL 1000, THEN
BECOMING UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY (SOUTHWEST AT RIDGETOPS)
5 TO 10 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (7000-21000 KNOT-FT).
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW.
LAL.................1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......INCREASING TO 3500 FT AGL BY PEAK HEATING IN THE
AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 5 MPH.
CLEARING INDEX......140.
FORECASTER...MATT ALEKSA
REQUESTED BY...MARK ATWOOD
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2119770.0/GJT
.DELDT 10/20/21
.FORMATTERVERSION 1.0.26
.EMAIL MARK.ATWOOD@USDA.GOV
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