746
FXUS65 KGJT 261122
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
522 AM MDT WED AUG 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DAILY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THE REST OF THIS
WEEK, MAINLY ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WESTERN COLORADO AND
EASTERN UTAH.
- LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES TO POSE A THREAT TO FLASH
FLOODING OVER BURN SCARS AND SUSCEPTIBLE TERRAIN.
- DAYTIME HIGHS WILL RUN 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
FRIDAY.
- COOLER AND WETTER PATTERN CHANGE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, WITH
HIGHS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1020 PM MDT TUE AUG 25 2026
HOT REST OF THIS WEEK:
THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO RETROGRADE WESTWARD
ACROSS NEW MEXICO AND ARIZONA WITH ITS CENTER SOUTH OF THE FOUR
CORNERS. WE WILL CONTINUE TO RECYCLE MOISTURE UNDERNEATH WITH
PWAT ANOMALIES HOLDING STEADY AT AROUND 110 TO 140 PERCENT OF
NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY. MEANWHILE, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO REMAIN AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. FORCING
WILL REMAIN LIMITED SO EXPECT STORMS TO FORM OVER THE HIGH
TERRAIN EACH AFTERNOON. FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS WILL
BE POSSIBLE FROM ANY STORMS THAT FORM, ALONG WITH LOCALIZED
HEAVY RAIN. SHOULD STORMS FORM OVER A SENSITIVE AREA, OR TRAIN
OVER THE SAME AREA, FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE, ALONG WITH
DEBRIS FLOWS ASSOCIATED WITH RECENT BURN SCARS BUT THIS THREAT
DOES APPEAR LOCALIZED THROUGH FRIDAY. A LITTLE BIT DRIER AIR
DOES GET PULLED IN AS WELL BY FRIDAY WITH SOME GUSTIER WINDS
AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH THAT MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST, WHICH MAY RESULT IN LOCALIZED CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS.
COOLER AND WETTER PATTERN THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK:
THE PATTERN DOES LOOK TO CHANGE ONCE AGAIN BY THIS WEEKEND AS
THIS LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST,
NUDGING THE HIGH TO THE EAST AND SHIFTING THE FLOW TO
SOUTHWESTERLY. THIS WILL HELP DRAW UP ANOTHER SURGE OF MONSOONAL
MOISTURE AS PWAT ANOMALIES JUMP TOWARDS 160 TO 180 PERCENT OF
NORMAL. THIS LOW LIFTS ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND
NORTHERN ROCKIES SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, BRINGING SOME ROBUST
SHORTWAVES THROUGH THE MOIST, SOUTHWEST FLOW WHICH SHOULD RESULT
IN MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL. THIS PATTERN LOOKS TO LAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS A LARGE SCALE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH
SEVERAL SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH. SO
THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK IS TRENDING WETTER AND COOLER WITH
HIGHS NEAR TO A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AS WE TRANSITION OUT OF
AUGUST AND INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF SEPTEMBER.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 518 AM MDT WED AUG 26 2026
SOME CLOUDS WILL DRIFT OVERHEAD THIS MORNING BEFORE CONVECTION
STARTS AFTER 18Z. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION OVER KGUC AND KTEX. OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION, GENERALLY
LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE, MIGHT BE
SOME BRIEF MVFR UNDER STRONGER SHOWERS/STORMS.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MDA/TGJT
AVIATION...TGJT
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