876
FXUS65 KGJT 190911
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
211 AM MST MON JAN 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL DIVIDE
THIS MORNING WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS AND SLICK TRAVEL OVER
MOUNTAIN PASSES.
- WARM AND PREDOMINATELY DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE
WORK WEEK.
- THE POTENTIAL FOR A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN INCREASES LATE
IN THE WEEK WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW POSSIBLE
(30-50% CHANCE).
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 156 AM MST MON JAN 19 2026
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS
OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL DIVIDE MOUNTAINS WINDING DOWN
LATER THIS MORNING. MOISTURE HAS BEEN HARD TO COME BY ON OUR
SIDE OF THE DIVIDE WITH MOST IMPACTS SLATED TO REMAIN EAST OF
THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA, BUT EVEN SO WE MIGHT SEE SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS AND SLIPPERY TRAVEL ALONG RABBIT EARS AND VAIL
PASS WHEN ALL IS SAID AND DONE.
DRIER AIR QUICKLY MOVES IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCE LEADING TO MORE DRY WEATHER TO START THE WEEK. HIGH
TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL IN THE VALLEYS AND NEAR NORMAL
FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. NIGHTTIME LOWS REMAIN ON THE COOLER
SIDE OF NORMAL DUE TO AMPLE RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH DRY AIR IN
PLACE.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 156 AM MST MON JAN 19 2026
NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE WEST WITH A BROAD
LOW PRESSURE TROUGH TO OUR EAST. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
DRY WITH TEMPERATURES 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND PASSING
HIGH CLOUD COVER FROM TIME TO TIME. BY FRIDAY, A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES ONTO THE SOCAL COAST AND BECOMES CUT OFF FROM THE
MAIN FLOW UNDERNEATH THIS WESTERN RIDGE. WHILE THIS DOESN'T
NECESSARILY BREAK DOWN THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE, IT DOES SHIFT
THE RIDGE AXIS FURTHER WEST OFF THE COAST, ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER
WAVE TO DROP DOWN FROM THE NORTH AND MERGE WITH THIS CUT OFF LOW
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, ALLOWING FOR INCREASING CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION. SO PWAT ANOMALIES SHOW A MODEST INCREASE OF 140
TO 180 PERCENT OF NORMAL WITH WIDESPREAD MOUNTAIN SNOW POSSIBLE.
THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW THIS PATTERN
WILL EVOLVE AND HOW MUCH SNOW MAY FALL ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN
RANGES, BUT AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS APPEAR FAVORED GIVEN THE INFLUENCE OF THE CUT OFF LOW.
DRIER AIR LOOKS TO MOVE BACK IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WITH THE RIDGE SHIFTING FURTHER INLAND ALONG THE WEST
COAST. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT BEYOND THIS WEEKEND, THE PATTERN IS
SHOWING SIGNS OF BECOMING MORE PROGRESSIVE EVEN THOUGH
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE SEASONABLE.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 205 AM MST MON JAN 19 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD FOR MOST
EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO TERMINALS WITH MID TO HIGH
CLOUDS PASSING THROUGH THIS MORNING. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
MOVE ALONG THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL DIVIDE MOUNTAINS THROUGH
MIDDAY. CEILINGS MAY FLIRT WITH ILS BREAKPOINTS AT KHDN, KEGE,
AND KASE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME, BUT THE POTENTIAL IS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
SHORT TERM...KAA
LONG TERM...MDA
AVIATION...TGJT
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