972
FXUS65 KGJT 080532
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1132 PM MDT TUE JUL 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TODAY, FAVORING THE
TERRAIN.
- CHANCES FOR WETTING RAINS REMAIN LOW. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND
DRY LIGHTNING POSE THREATS FOR NEW/EXISTING WILDFIRES.
- LOCALIZED CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EMERGE THURSDAY FOR
SOUTHEAST UT AND SOUTHWEST CO.
- AFTERNOON HIGHS 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ARE FORECAST THIS WEEKEND,
WITH TRIPLE DIGITS POSSIBLE IN MOST DESERT VALLEY AREAS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1021 PM MDT TUE JUL 7 2026
LINGERING MOISTURE:
THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS WILL SHIFT
WEST TODAY, CUTTING OFF THE WESTERN SLOPE FROM THE LITTLE SURGE OF
MOISTURE WE'VE BEEN UNDER THE LAST FEW DAYS. DRIER AIR BEGINS TO
ADVECT IN FROM THE WEST, ALTHOUGH ENOUGH MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO
LINGER IN THE MID-LEVELS TO KEEP THE CHANCE FOR SOME ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL FAVOR
THE HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE DIVIDE, AS WELL AS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF THE EASTERN UINTAS. SURFACE LEVELS REMAIN DRY, LIMITING THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANY WETTING RAIN. A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO MAYBE A TENTH OF
AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE. THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH ANY STORMS WILL BE
OUTFLOW WINDS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 35-45 MPH GUSTS, AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING. SOME OF THIS MOISTURE COULD LINGER INTO THURSDAY, MAINLY
ALONG THE NORTHERN DIVIDE MOUNTAINS, WITH SIMILAR IMPACTS.
FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL:
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY LIGHT THROUGH THE NEXT SEVEN
DAYS, OUTSIDE OF THOSE ENHANCED BY NEARBY CONVECTION. HOWEVER, AN
AREA OF ELEVATED WINDS IS EXPECTED AROUND THE FOUR CORNERS, WITH
GUSTS OF 20-30 MPH POSSIBLE. AS A RESULT, LOCALIZED CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA.
HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS RETURN:
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE SOUTHWEST THIS WEEKEND, HOTTER
AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR THE WESTERN SLOPE. DAILY
HUMIDITY MINIMUMS WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS, AND
TEMPERATURES WILL JUMP TO 5-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. TRIPLE DIGIT
HIGHS ARE LIKELY FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS STARTING ON SATURDAY AND
CARRYING INTO NEXT WEEK. FOR GRAND JUNCTION, IT LOOKS AS THOUGH
WE'LL GET CLOSE TO THE ALL-TIME RECORD HIGH OF 107 ON SUNDAY, AS THE
CURRENT FORECAST HAS A HIGH OF 106. LUCKILY, WINDS WILL REMAIN ON
THE LIGHTER SIDE, LIMITING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
EVEN STILL, BE AWARE OF POTENTIAL SPARK SOURCES IF OUT RECREATING
THIS WEEKEND. ADDITIONALLY, BE MINDFUL IF SPENDING TIME OUTDOORS IN
HEAT. BE SURE TO STAY HYDRATED, WEAR LOOSE AND LIGHT-COLORED
CLOTHING, AND LIMIT ACTIVITY DURING THE HOTTEST PART OF THE DAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1130 PM MDT TUE JUL 7 2026
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE AT THIS HOUR BUT THEY
WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. STILL, SOME
GUSTY WINDS AND SOME LIGHTNING WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE. TOMORROW,
ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN THE ATMOSPHERE FOR ANOTHER DAY OF
ISOLATED CONVECTION THOUGH COVERAGE WILL BE LESS THAN SEEN
TODAY. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN. DID NOT
INCLUDE ANY STORMS IN TAF SITES. VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE WITH SOME MINOR SMOKE ALSO REMAINING POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
AREA.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1021 PM MDT TUE JUL 7 2026
ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORM CONCERNS CONTINUE TODAY AND POSSIBLY INTO
THURSDAY BEFORE STORM POTENTIAL ALMOST ENTIRELY DIMINISHES. SURFACE
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES REMAIN LOW, BELOW 20%, ACROSS THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS. GREATER SURFACE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE SAN JUAN
MOUNTAINS, SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE RAIN TO REACH GROUND. CHANCES OF
WETTING RAINS REMAIN LOW, UNDER 10%, BUT NOT ZERO. A FEW STORMS
COULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH THE
EVENING WHICH, IF THEY TRACK OVER AN ACTIVE FIRE OR BURN SCAR, COULD
PROMPT DEBRIS FLOW CONCERNS. THE PROBABILITY OF THIS REMAINS LOW,
BUT NON-NEGLIGIBLE. DRY THUNDERSTORMS STILL REMAIN A CONCERN THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS, BRINGING ABOUT A RISK OF NEW LIGHTNING IGNITIONS
AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WHICH COULD IMPACT NEW AND EXISTING
WILDFIRES. AS HOTTER AND DRIER CONDITIONS SETTLE IN FRIDAY AND INTO
THE WEEKEND, FIRE CONDITIONS COULD BECOME EXACERBATED. LIGHTER WINDS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND, HOWEVER POCKETS OF 25-35 MPH GUSTS
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHWEST COLORADO AND SOUTHEAST UTAH. COVERAGE
OF THESE GUSTIER WINDS WILL BE LIMITED, HOWEVER, KEEPING CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS LOCALIZED.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BGB
AVIATION...TGJT
FIRE WEATHER...BGB/TGJT
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