974
FXUS65 KGJT 030545
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1145 PM MDT TUE JUN 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HOT, DRY, WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP AS TEMPERATURES TREND
10 TO 15 DEGREES OVER NORMAL.
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THURSDAY
AND BEYOND AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE DROPPING INTO THE PACNW.
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL FAVOR THE SAN JUANS AND THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1047 PM MDT TUE JUN 2 2026
THE 00Z MODELS INITIALIZED WELL WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY PLACING A
COLD LOW MOVING UP INTO SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN, A SECOND COLD LOW
DESCENDING THROUGH THE GULF OF ALASKA AND A WEAK LOW CIRCULATION OFF
THE COAST OF SOCAL AND NORTHERN BAJA, AND RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS UP INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WITH THE DEEP LOWS TO THE
NORTH AND WELL TO THE NORTHWEST, THE FLOW ALOFT TO THE NORTH IS
MOSTLY ZONAL ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES, BUT THE RIDGING TO THE EAST
EXTENDS SOUTH THROUGH TEXAS, MEXICO AND OUT OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC
PRODUCING A GENERAL WEAK, AND SOMEWHAT INDETERMINATE FLOW ALOFT TO
OUR SOUTH WITH EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO IN THE MIDDLE. THE
HIGH OVER TEXAS IN THE EARLY WEEK DID PUSH SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE UP
INTO NEW MEXICO, BUT THE CURRENT WEAK FLOW IS NOT ENOUGH TO KEEP
PUSHING THAT NORTH INTO THE REGION. HENCE THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
TRENDING DRIER WITH EACH RUN OF THE MODELS, REDUCING THE CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. THUS THE CURRENT
OUTLOOK IS FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS
WITH A FEW ISOLATED STORMS FARTHER NORTH ALONG THE CENTRAL COLORADO
DIVIDE.
LATER IN THE WEEK, AS THE LOW OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA DROPS INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, THE FLOW ALOFT OVER THE REGION WILL PICK UP
OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST PRODUCING GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS THAT MAY LAST
WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. THURSDAY DOES INDICATE BORDERLINE CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS IN NORTHEASTERN UTAH AND NORTHWESTERN COLORADO,
BUT IT'S JUST NOT STRONG ENOUGH OF A SIGNAL TO JUMP ON IT NOW. STAY
TUNED THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOR UPDATES ON THIS ONE. WITH THE DRY
CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES HEATING UP TO NEAR RECORD HIGHS, 10-15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY THIS WEEKEND, EXPECT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE DAILY SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1141 PM MDT TUE JUN 2 2026
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
TOMORROW AFTERNOON GUSTS UP TO AROUND 15 TO 20 KTS ARE POSSIBLE.
KTEX AND KDRO HAVE A SMALL CHANCE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
TOMORROW, WHICH COULD PRODUCE LIGHTNING, STRONG WIND GUSTS, AND
LOWERED CEILINGS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DB
AVIATION...TGJT
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