176
FXUS65 KGJT 110528
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1128 PM MDT FRI APR 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES SATURDAY INTO TUESDAY, WITH
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST.
- A COLD FRONT ARRIVES MONDAY, BRINGING MOUNTAIN SNOW AND COLDER
TEMPERATURES TO START THE WORK WEEK.
- COOLER AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS LOOK TO STICK AROUND THROUGH
MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1040 PM MDT FRI APR 10 2026
PATTERN SHIFT:
AS TROUGHING DEEPENS OFF THE WEST COAST, STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT
ABOVE NORMAL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION WITH FORECAST PWATS SATURDAY
EXPECTED TO BE 150-200% OF NORMAL. ANOTHER JET MAX MOVING THROUGH
THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP THINGS BREEZY. THE FIRST IN A
SERIES OF WAVES IS EXPECTED TO BRUSH BY THE REGION IN THE AFTERNOON
AS WELL. BETWEEN THE JET, THE WAVE, AND FAVORABLE SOUTHWESTERLY
OROGRAPHICS, THERE'S PLENTY OF LIFT TO ACT ON THIS MOISTURE,
RESULTING IN SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS, AND EVEN SOME
THUNDERSTORMS. SNOW LEVELS REMAIN HIGH, KEEPING ACCUMULATING SNOW AT
OR ABOVE PASS LEVEL, WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF 1-3 INCHES EXPECTED OUT
OF THIS FIRST ROUND. TAKE CARE IF TRAVELING OVER THE MOUNTAIN PASSES
TOMORROW EVENING, AS EVEN A LIGHT DUSTING OF SNOW CAN CREATE SLICK
ROADS AND DIFFICULT DRIVING CONDITIONS. AS THIS FIRST WAVE TRACKS
OUT OF THE REGION, AND THE PARENT TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEEPEN OFF THE
COAST, WE COME UNDER A BRIEF PERIOD OF RIDGING ON SUNDAY. SOME DRIER
AIR TRIES TO FILTER IN, AS WELL AS SOME LIGHTER WINDS. THIS BREAK
LOOKS TO BE SHORT LIVED, HOWEVER, AS THE NEXT WAVE BEGINS TO MOVE
INLAND AND THE SOUTHWESTERLY JET PICKS BACK UP ONCE AGAIN. BETWEEN
THE STRENGTHENING WINDS ALOFT, AND A TIGHTENING SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT, LOOK FOR WINDS TO
REALLY PICK UP ONCE MORE ON MONDAY. GUSTS TO 45 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE, POTENTIALLY HIGHER WHERE INFLUENCED BY SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
COOLER AND UNSETTLED:
THE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH MONDAY AND TUESDAY IS PACKING
SOME MUCH COOLER AIR, AND A POTENT COLD FRONT. WHERE HIGHS ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL RUN 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, TEMPERATURES
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE NEAR TO AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY, WITH LOWERING SNOW LEVELS RESULTING IN MORE
WIDESPREAD MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS. THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS PASSES MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, WITH FLOW EXPECTED TO SWITCH TO NORTHWESTERLY.
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE BRINGS DRIER AIR IN ON THIS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW,
BUT LIKELY THERE WILL BE ENOUGH SURFACE MOISTURE TO KEEP OROGRAPHIC
SHOWERS GOING OVER FAVORED RANGES. AS A RESULT, ANOTHER FEW INCHES
OF SNOW IS EXPECTED FOR ALL THE EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO
RANGES BY WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER TRANSIENT RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, BRINGING A BRIEF RETURN TO WARMER
AND DRIER CONDITIONS. MODELS ARE INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR
ANOTHER TROUGH TO DROP DOWN OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO ROUND
OUT THE WORKWEEK. THERE IS MEDIUM CONFIDENCE (40-60%) THAT WE'LL SEE
ANOTHER COOLDOWN TO NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER,
CONFIDENCE IS POOR (<30%) THAT WE'LL SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION. SO STAY TUNED.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1124 PM MDT FRI APR 10 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS MID TO
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS DRIFT THROUGH. THIS MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO
ISOLATED MOUNTAIN SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH LOCALIZED
AREAS OF TERRAIN OBSCURATION. AS INSTABILITY INCREASES WITH
HEATING ON SATURDAY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
EXPAND. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS UP TO 50
MPH AS GENERAL WIND GUSTS WILL ALREADY BE IN THE 30 TO 40 MPH
RANGE IN MANY AREAS. TEMPORARY ILS CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE
UNDER SHOWER ACTIVITY.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BGB
AVIATION...TGJT
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