391  
FXUS65 KGJT 312036  
AFDGJT  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO  
236 PM MDT SUN MAY 31 2020  
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 228 PM MDT SUN MAY 31 2020  
 
SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS  
AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN A FAIRLY MOIST LOW-LEVEL  
ENVIRONMENT WITH ADDITIONAL DYNAMICAL LIFT PROVIDED BY AN  
ASSOCIATED JET ALOFT. THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL  
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE DISSIPATING OVERNIGHT. THE  
MAIN IMPACT WILL BE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS, LIGHTNING, AND BRIEF  
HEAVY RAIN WITH THESE FAST-MOVING STORMS. AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES  
EAST INTO MONTANA ON MONDAY THE FOCUS OF THE CONVECTION WILL SHIFT  
SLIGHTLY SOUTH OVER THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT ISOLATED-SCATTERED  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO FIRE BY LATE MORNING WITH THE BEST  
FOCUS ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE  
FORECAST AREA BEFORE DIMINISHING DURING THE EVENING HOURS.  
LOCALIZED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN  
NORTHEASTERN UTAH AND NORTHWESTERN COLORADO DUE TO DRY AND BREEZY  
CONDITIONS AS DETAILED IN THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)  
ISSUED AT 228 PM MDT SUN MAY 31 2020  
 
ZONAL FLOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHERN STATES WITH A CLOSED LOW  
OFF OF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST BY TUESDAY MORNING. A RIDGE OF  
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER OUR FORECAST  
AREA THROUGH MOST OF THE WORK WEEK. MOISTURE WILL UNDERCUT THE RIDGE  
ON TUESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF LATE-DAY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS  
ACROSS THE SOUTH AND ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. OTHERWISE, EXPECT  
DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE  
ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF  
LATE-DAY STORMS POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MODEL-MODEL  
CONSISTENCY IS LOW AFTER WEDNESDAY WITH THE TRACK AND EVOLUTION OF  
THE EJECTING CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. WE WILL TAKE A  
CONSENSUS APPROACH WITH AN INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWER AND  
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY. A BROAD TROUGH  
WILL MOVE OVER THE WESTERN STATES BY THE WEEKEND BRINGING DRIER AND  
AN INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION WITH POSSIBLE FIRE  
WEATHER CONCERNS RETURNING ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE  
SEASONABLY WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MORE NORMAL TEMPERATURES  
RETURNING BY THE WEEKEND.
 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)  
ISSUED AT 1051 AM MDT SUN MAY 31 2020  
 
VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS  
WITH AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN FORMING IN THE  
HEAT OF THE DAY. WINDS OVER 25 MPH WILL BE LIKELY AT KCNY AS THE  
GENERAL GRADIENT WILL BE TIGHTENING. STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE  
POSSIBLE WITH ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS AS WELL AS BRIEF MVFR CONDITONS.  
THIS ACTIVITY COULD LINGER OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY AT KDRO, KTEX AND  
KGUC.  
 

 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
 
ISSUED AT 228 PM MDT SUN MAY 31 2020  
 
UNSTABLE CONDITIONS DUE TO MOIST ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS HAVE LED  
TO ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS. THERE WILL BE A SMALL AREA OF RED FLAG CONDITIONS  
THIS AFTERNOON IN ZONE 490 AS DRIER AIR TEMPORARILY MIXES DOWN.  
MOISTURE WILL BE BETTER FOCUSED ACROSS THE SOUTH ON MONDAY WITH  
DRIER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTH WITH LOCALIZED RED FLAG  
CONDITIONS IN ZONE 200 IN COLORADO AND 487 IN EASTERN UTAH DUE TO  
LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS. A PATTERN OF LATE-  
DAY SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE WORK WEEK  
BEFORE A SYSTEM LIFTS THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND BRINGS A  
BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FRIDAY INTO EARLY  
SATURDAY...WITH WETTING RAINFALL A GOOD POSSIBILITY. SOUTHWEST  
FLOW IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AHEAD OF A STORM SYSTEM OVER THE  
WESTERN US AND BRING GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND HEIGHTENED FIRE  
WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.  
 

 
   
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
CO...NONE.  
UT...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR UTZ490.  
 

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...MPM  
LONG TERM...MPM  
AVIATION...TGJT  
FIRE WEATHER...TGJT  
 
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