724
FXUS65 KGJT 281136
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
436 AM MST SAT FEB 28 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- UNSEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION, WITH
HIGHS 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND POTENTIALLY RECORD-
BREAKING TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY.
- ACCUMULATING SNOW IS POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
- MILD CONDITIONS CONTINUE NEXT WEEK WITH ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL
FOR MOUNTAIN LOCALES AROUND 9-10,000 FEET.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 829 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2026
RIDGING IS DOMINANT ALONG THE WEST COAST, EXTENDING NORTHWARD FROM
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA, WHICH MEANS DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW FOR US. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO
WESTERLY AS THE RIDGE IS FLATTENED BY AN APPROACHING CLOSED LOW.
THIS TRANSITION TO ZONAL FLOW WILL BEGIN TO ADVECT INCREASING
MOISTURE, WITH FORECAST PWAT VALUES CLIMBING FROM 70-100% OF NORMAL
DURING THE DAY TOMORROW TO 170-200% OF NORMAL LATE TOMORROW NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING. DUE TO THIS, CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH LIGHT OROGRAPHIC SHOWERS
BREAKING OUT OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OUT OF THESE SHOWERS WILL BE LIGHT, AND GENERALLY
CONFINED TO ABOVE 9K FEET. TEMPERATURES REMAIN UNSEASONABLY
WARM, WITH HIGHS TRACKING 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND LOWS
RUNNING 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 829 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2026
THE MOISTURE ADVECTION CONTINUES TO SPREAD ACROSS NORTHEAST UTAH
AND NORTHWEST COLORADO ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL KEEP THE CHANCES
FOR LIGHT SNOW IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS GOING MOST
OF THE DAY. WARM TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT IN SNOW LEVELS
GENERALLY ABOVE 9000 FEET. ON MONDAY, THE LOW PRESSURE
PROGRESSES OVER THE GREAT BASIN CAUSING WARM ADVECTION IN OUR
AREA AND THEREFORE A BRIEF BREAK IN PRECIPITATION. SHOWERS MAY
START TO DEVELOP LATE MONDAY IN RESPONSE TO INCREASED MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY. HIGH TEMPERATURES COULD REACH RECORD VALUES FOR
PLACES THAT SEE MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS. ALSO, THE PRE-FRONTAL
GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO GUSTY WINDS. THE MAIN COLD FRONT WITH
THIS WAVE WORKS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY, SO EXPECT A
ROUND OF VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY ABOVE 8
KFT. SHOWERS DIMINISH WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THE TOTAL SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS ARE NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE. MINOR IMPACTS ARE POSSIBLE ON
THE MOUNTAIN PASSES OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING. ANOTHER SYSTEM
COULD APPROACH US FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY BRINGING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
CONDITIONS.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 435 AM MST SAT FEB 28 2026
SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR, BUT HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO
MOVE INTO THE AREA. HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
SHORT TERM...KJS
LONG TERM...KJS
AVIATION...TGJT
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