176
FXUS65 KGJT 021235 CCA
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
535 AM MST FRI DEC 2 2022
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 505 AM MST FRI DEC 2 2022
THE 110 KT JET IS DROPPING DOWN OVER THE REGION FROM THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WITH THE COLD FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH SALT LAKE CITY
AROUND 1 AM. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT, STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS HAVE BEEN
PICKING UP OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE REGION TO THE NORTHWEST AND SHIFTING
TO THE SOUTHEAST. CRAIG REPORTED A 60 MPH GUST. LOOK FOR THESE WINDS
TO INCREASE GOING INTO THE MORNING HOURS, PEAKING BEFORE NOON AND
DIMINISHING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HAVE KEPT THE WIND ADVISORY IN
PLACE FOR EASTERN UTAH AND SOUTHWESTERN COLORADO THROUGH 3 PM THIS
AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY, THE WIND ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN COLORADO
WAS UPGRADED TO A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR STRONG WINDS AND SNOW
SHOWERS.
WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND WINDS KEEPING THE ATMOSPHERE WELL MIXED,
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN ON THE WARM SIDE OVERNIGHT. MANY AREAS ARE
CURRENTLY SEEING THEIR THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR THE DAY WITH THE
TEMPERATURES FALLING THROUGH THE DAY AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
WITH THE DEEP MIXING, THE SNOW LEVELS ARE GENERALLY ABOVE 7500 FT
ACROSS THE REGION. SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE HAS MOVED UP FROM THE
SOUTHWEST BRINGING SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO THE VALLEYS AND SNOW
SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS. LOOK FOR THE SNOW LEVEL TO DROP RAPIDLY
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH. THE
INCREASED CAPE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL PRODUCE SNOW SQUALL
CONDITIONS WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW, NEAR ZERO VISIBILITY AND
POSSIBLE FLASH FREEZES ON ROADS AROUND THE REGION. BE AWARE THAT IF
YOU ENCOUNTER A SNOW SQUALL, WET ROADS CAN QUICKLY FREEZE OVER,
BECOME VERY TREACHEROUS. DRIVE WITH CARE AND BE PREPARED FOR RAPIDLY
CHANGING ROAD CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-70
CORRIDOR. AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH, WINDS WILL SHIFT NORTHWESTERLY
AND GUST FOR AN HOUR OR SO AS THE COLD AIR POURS INTO THE REGION
WITH CONDITIONS DRYING OUT. THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL HAVE MOSTLY MOVED
EAST OF THE DIVIDE BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH ONLY A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH FROM THE WEST SATURDAY AFTERNOON
BRING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION MOSTLY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN, BUT A FEW SHOWERS MAY MOVE OVER THE VALLEYS. LOOK FOR 3-5
INCHES SHOW IN THE MOUNTAINS AND LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION IN THE
VALLEYS.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 505 AM MST FRI DEC 2 2022
LIGHT OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE NORTHERN
COLORADO MOUNTAINS IN A FAVORABLE WESTERLY FLOW AS A LEADING
SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHWARD AHEAD OF A CLOSED LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ENTERING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS AFOREMENTIONED LOW WILL
DRIVE MOISTURE ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA, PUMMELING THE SIERRAS
WITH MORE SNOW. SHOWERS LOOK TO COME TO AN END BY SUNDAY MORNING
AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST, ALLOWING THE SUB-TROPICAL JET TO ALSO LIFT
NORTH OF OUR REGION AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING WORKS IN, PROVIDING DRY
CONDITIONS AND CLEARING SKIES. THE PACNW LOW LOOKS TO DROP
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN AND BECOME MORE OF AN OPEN WAVE
AS IT CROSSES THE WESTERN SLOPE ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THIS
SOUTHWARD PUSH IS DRIVEN BY A LARGE UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER
NORTHERN MANITOBA AND THE HUDSON BAY IN CANADA, THAT WILL BE
ROTATING SEVERAL WAVES AROUND IT THROUGH THE UPPER PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS. THIS LOW WILL WEAKEN AS IT
MOVES SOUTHWARD, RESULTING IN LESS FORCING AND SNOWFALL THAN
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS INDICATED. FOR OUR CWA, A BOUNDARY LOOKS TO
SET UP MONDAY MORNING ACROSS THE NORTH WITH THIS AREA OF
PRECIPITATION MOVING SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CORRIDOR
THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. SO, THIS NEXT EVENT LOOKS TO FAVOR THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COLORADO MOUNTAINS WITH ROUGHLY 4 TO 8 INCHES
OF SNOW MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
LATEST MODEL PROJECTIONS HAVE THIS TROUGH RESURRECTING THE CLOSED
LOW OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BEFORE IT LIFTS BACK THROUGH THE GREAT
BASIN AND ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AS AN OPEN WAVE TROUGH
DURING THE MID WEEK TIMEFRAME, WHICH WOULD FAVOR THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. THE GFS SEEMS MORE BULLISH ON THIS THAN THE
ECMWF, SO CONFIDENCE IN PLACEMENT AND AMOUNTS IS LOWER GIVEN MODEL
TIMING DIFFERENCES. TEMPERATURES THROUGH NEXT WEEK LOOK TO REMAIN
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND THEN DROP TO NEAR NORMAL MID WEEK AND BELOW
NORMAL LATE IN THE WEEK GIVEN THE PASSAGE OF THESE CONSECUTIVE STORM
SYSTEMS. THE PATTERN REMAINS ON THE COOLER SIDE AND UNSETTLED.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 505 AM MST FRI DEC 2 2022
SHOWERS ARE MOVING INTO EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO WITH
RAIN REPORTED AT KGJT AND KMTJ, AND SNOW AT KVEL, KHDN AND
KTEX. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING FROM WEST
TO EAST WITH RAIN TURNING TO SNOW AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. TAF SITES
WILL DROP BELOW ILS BREAKPOINTS WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO
LOW CEILINGS AND POOR VISIBILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN SHOWERS AND
WILL INCREASE ABOVE THE BREAKPOINTS WITH VFR CONDITIONS AFTER THE
FRONT PASSES. MOST SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL MOVE EAST OF THE DIVIDE BY
ABOUT 21Z AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST OUT OF THE REGION. SOUTHWEST
WINDS GUSTING 35 TO 50 KTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL SHIFT NORTHWEST
AND DROP OFF BEHIND THE FRONT.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
COZ001>003-005-008.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ004-
009-010-012-013.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ006-007-011-
014-020.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
COZ017>019.
UT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR UTZ027-029.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR UTZ023.
SHORT TERM...DB
LONG TERM...MDA
AVIATION...DB
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page