420
FXUS65 KGJT 241719
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1119 AM MDT FRI APR 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- FREEZE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FROM 2AM TO 8AM. TAKE
PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT SENSITIVE VEGETATION.
- GUSTY WINDS OF 25-35 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE MOST AFTERNOONS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH POSSIBLE FOR
AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-70.
- DRY SURFACE CONDITIONS, CRITICAL FUELS, AND GUSTY WINDS WILL
LEAD TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN NORTHWEST
COLORADO. RED FLAG WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT.
- WIDESPREAD RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW RETURNS SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY. COOLER AND UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH
MID NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1044 PM MDT THU APR 23 2026
WARMER, BREEZY END TO THE WEEK:
ZONAL FLOW PERSISTS, WITH A 70-80 KNOT WESTERLY JET ALOFT. THIS
WILL KEEP CONDITIONS RELATIVELY QUIET, WITH TEMPERATURES
WARMING TO NEAR OR A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TO ROUND OUT THE
WEEK AND START THE WEEKEND. WINDS ALSO REMAIN BREEZY THANKS TO
DEEP DAYTIME MIXING TAPPING INTO THAT JET, WITH WIDESPREAD GUSTS
OF 25-35 MPH EXPECTED. SOME AREAS, MAINLY NORTH OF I-70, COULD
SEE GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH. WITH DRY SURFACE AIR IN PLACE AND
CRITICAL FUELS, THIS HAS LED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
FOR NORTHWEST COLORADO, WITH RED FLAG WARNINGS IN EFFECT. WHILE
FUELS ARE NOT CRITICAL ACROSS THE REST OF EASTERN UTAH AND
WESTERN COLORADO, WINDS AND HUMIDITIES REMAIN IN CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER RANGE. SO BE MINDFUL WITH ANY SPARK SOURCES, SUCH AS
CAMPFIRES, AGRICULTURAL BURNING, OR DRAGGING CHAINS.
COOLER, WETTER PATTERN RETURNS:
A TROUGH BEGINS TO DEEPEN OFF THE WEST COAST SATURDAY, WITH
FLOW ALOFT SHIFTING TO MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. THIS WILL BEGIN TO
ADVECT DEEPER MOISTURE FROM THE SUBTROPICS INTO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. FORECAST PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO RUN 130-180% OF NORMAL
ACROSS EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO BY SUNDAY MORNING.
WITH THE INCREASING MOISTURE, CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON, WITH SHOWERS BREAKING OUT OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE PACIFIC TROUGH
WILL TRACK THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN SATURDAY NIGHT, REACHING THE
FOUR CORNERS SUNDAY MORNING. WITH AMPLE MOISTURE IN PLACE, AND
AMPLE FORCING BETWEEN THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND FAVORABLE
OROGRAPHICS, PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD. LOOK FOR
VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW ABOVE 8000 FEET. PRECIPITATION
WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY AS SEVERAL SHORTWAVES ROTATE AROUND A
PARENT TROUGH OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES. EACH WAVE
WILL BRING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR AND ANOTHER ROUND OF
VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS. BETWEEN THE COOLER
AIRMASS AND THE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND SHOWERS, THIS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE APRIL WELL INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1108 AM MDT FRI APR 24 2026
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS PICK UP AT
MOST SITES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH STRONGER WINDS GUSTING
OVER 30 KTS GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-70 AND MID TO UPPER
20'S ELSEWHERE. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER 01Z BECOMING
LIGHT TERRAIN DRIVEN AFTER 06Z. WINDS PICK UP AGAIN AFTER 16Z
WITH THE STRONGER WINDS GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-70.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1044 PM MDT THU APR 23 2026
DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN UTAH AND
WESTERN COLORADO. WINDS WILL GUST 25-35 MPH ACROSS THE REGION,
UP TO 45 MPH FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-70. FUELS REMAIN
CRITICAL ACROSS NORTHWEST COLORADO. THEREFORE, WITH THE
COMBINATION OF WINDS, LOW HUMIDITY, AND CRITICAL FUELS, RED FLAG
WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR COLORADO FIRE WEATHER ZONES 201 AND
202 FROM NOON THROUGH 9 PM. INCREASING MOISTURE AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY ONWARD WILL LIMIT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
POTENTIAL.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ200-202.
UT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BGB
AVIATION...DB
FIRE WEATHER...DB
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