752  
FXUS65 KGJT 160002  
AFDGJT  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO  
602 PM MDT WED OCT 15 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
- STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN SOUTHWEST/SOUTH CENTRAL  
COLORADO THIS EVENING.  
 
- FLASH FLOODING REMAINS A CONCERN FOR PORTIONS OF ARCHULETA AND  
HINSDALE COUNTIES THIS EVENING.  
 
- THE PASSING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BRING FREEZING TEMPERATURES  
TO LOW VALLEYS FRIDAY MORNING.  
 
- THE NEXT SYSTEM DROPS DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK  
BRINGING SCATTERED RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS TO THE  
REGION.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
 
 
ISSUED AT 336 PM MDT WED OCT 15 2025  
 
THE PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE CENTER CAMPED OUT OVER THE GREAT BASIN  
CONTINUES TO DELIVER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO WATER LOGGED  
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON. FLASH FLOOD  
HIGHLIGHTS REMAIN IN PLACE FOR PORTIONS OF ARCHULETA AND HINSDALE  
COUNTIES, AS WELL AS FOR THE SAN JUAN RIVER THROUGH PAGOSA SPRINGS.  
THE LOW LIFTS NORTH AND EAST OUT OF THE GREAT BASIN THIS EVENING.  
THIS WILL SHIFT SOME OF THE TRAINING STORM ACTIVITY EAST ACROSS THE  
DIVIDE OUT OF THE REGION BY DAYBREAK. IN THE MEANTIME, A FEW STRONG  
STORMS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ON THE SHOULDERS OF THE SAN JUANS  
THIS EVENING. GUSTY WINDS, HAIL, AND HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE WITH A  
FEW STORMS. THIS WILL BE ENOUGH OF A THREAT TO HANG ON TO FLOOD  
HIGHLIGHTS UNTIL WE CAN GET ENOUGH DRY AIR TO SQUASH PRECIPITATION  
POTENTIAL.  
 
TONIGHT, CLOSER TO THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER AND ALONG THE TRAILING  
FRONTAL BOUNDARY, SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL  
CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION NORTH OF THE HIGHWAY 50 CORRIDOR. SNOW  
LEVELS DROP TO NEAR 7000 FEET BY DAYBREAK, THIS SHOULD DELIVER SOME  
LIGHT SNOW MIXED IN WITH THE RAIN BY DAYBREAK FOR MOST OF OUR  
MOUNTAINS. THE BEST CHANCES FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL WILL BE ON THE  
HIGHER TERRAIN OF OUR NORTHERN MOUNTAINS, INCLUDING THE UINTAS,  
ELKHEADS, AND PARK RANGE, WHERE 3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED  
ABOVE TREELINE. BETWEEN TREELINE AND THE LOWEST SNOW LEVELS, A  
DUSTING TO 1 INCH IS EXPECTED. PRECIPITATION WILL FINALLY WIND DOWN  
FOR MOST OF THE REGION ON THURSDAY, WITH A FEW SHOWERS HANGING ON  
ALONG THE DEPARTING FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH OF THE HIGHWAY 40  
CORRIDOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON. CLEAR SKIES AND COLD AIR BEHIND THE  
FRONT WILL USHER IN A WAVE OF SOME OF THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES OF  
THE SEASON FRIDAY MORNING. MOUNTAIN LOWS WILL BE IN THE 20'S, WHILE  
LOWER VALLEYS SHOULD ALL REACH THE UPPER 30'S, INCLUDING SOME BELOW  
FREEZING. A FREEZE WATCH IS IN PLACE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY  
MORNING FOR MANY OF OUR VALLEY LOCATIONS, WHERE OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL  
DIP INTO THE UPPER 20'S.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 336 PM MDT WED OCT 15 2025  
 
ON FRIDAY THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTING OUR CWA WILL BE CENTERED  
OVER NORTH DAKOTA, WELL TO OUR NORTHEAST. AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THIS  
SYSTEM, FLOW WILL SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY, BRINGING DRIER AIR TO  
THE REGION. IN GENERAL, PWATS WILL FALL TO NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL  
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH THE LOWEST AMOUNTS FALLING TO AROUND  
50% OF NORMAL. THIS WILL KEEP US DRY PRETTY MUCH UNTIL THE NEXT  
SYSTEM ARRIVES, PERHAPS EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
 
WITH COOLER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE, AND REDUCED CLOUD COVER  
OVERNIGHT FROM DRIER CONDITIONS, OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL LIKELY DROP  
BELOW FREEZING FOR MANY HIGH ELEVATION LOCATIONS, INCLUDING MOUNTAIN  
VALLEYS. THE GRAND VALLEY AND DESERT VALLEYS OF EASTERN UTAH LOOK TO  
REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD.  
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A BIT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS FLOW BEGINS TO  
TRANSITION TO WESTERLY.  
 
THE NEXT POTENTIAL FOR A RETURN OF ACTIVE WEATHER LOOKS TO BE EARLY  
NEXT WEEK. MODELS ARE SHOWING A TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE WEST AS  
EARLY AS SUNDAY EVENING, AND POTENTIALLY REACHING OUR CWA MONDAY.  
THERE IS STILL SOME SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS ON THE  
TIMING AND SOUTHWARD EXTENT OF THE TROUGH. ADDITIONALLY, ENSEMBLES  
ARE SUGGESTING DRY CONDITIONS AT THE START OF NEXT WEEK, WHICH WOULD  
LEAD TO A LOWER PRECIPITATION EVENT, EVEN WITH ABUNDANT UPPER LEVEL  
SUPPORT. SO, CONFIDENCE REMAINS PRETTY LOW REGARDING THE DETAILS OF  
THIS POTENTIAL SYSTEM.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 554 PM MDT WED OCT 15 2025  
 
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST  
COLORADO WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL  
AREAS THIS EVENING WITH SHOWERS CONTINUING OVERNIGHT ACROSS  
NORTHWEST COLORADO AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH.  
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS IS SCATTERED SO CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE AT  
TAF SITES IS LOWER SO INCLUDED PROB30 GROUPS TO ACCOUNT FOR  
THESE SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. EXPECT GENERALLY  
VFR CONDITIONS WITH PERIODS OF MVFR DURING ANY SHOWERS. THE  
HEAVIER SHOWERS ARE FOCUSED ACROSS SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA  
WHICH DO NOT APPEAR TO IMPACT TAF SITES. DRIER AIR WILL  
ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY, FURTHER  
REDUCING SHOWER COVERAGE. EXPECT BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS OF  
25 TO 35 KTS TO TAF SITES THIS EVENING INTO PORTIONS OF THE  
OVERNIGHT AS THIS SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH.  
 

 
   
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
CO...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING  
FOR COZ001-002-005-007-008-020>023.  
UT...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...LTB  
LONG TERM...GF  
AVIATION...TGJT  
 
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