989
FXUS65 KGJT 090403
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
903 PM MST THU JAN 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SNOW AND RAIN WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON, WITH ANOTHER BURST
OF SNOW THIS EVENING INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SOME LOWER VALLEYS
COULD SEE RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
CHANGING OVER TO ALL SNOW THIS EVENING.
- WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE
HIGHER TERRAIN IN CO AND THE LA SALS AND ABAJOS IN UT THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING.
- MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES MOVE IN FRIDAY WITH NEAR TO BELOW
SEASONABLE VALUES, ALONG WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS.
- DRY AND MILDER CONDITIONS RETURN FOR NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 324 PM MST THU JAN 8 2026
AFTER THE FIRST INITIAL WAVE PASSED THROUGH THIS MORNING,
SHOWERS REDEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHEAST UTAH AND
WESTERN COLORADO UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW. THESE SHOWERS HAVE
DEVELOPED MORE OF A CONVECTIVE FEEL WITH EVEN A FEW LIGHTNING
STRIKES NORTH OF MOAB EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON. WE ARE STARTING TO
SEE THIS SOUTHWEST FLOW CONVERGE WITH A WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW
ACROSS NORTHWEST COLORADO AND THE I-70 CORRIDOR, WHICH IS A
SIGNAL THAT THE TROUGH IS MAKING IS PUSH EASTWARD WITH THIS
SECONDARY PUSH COMING THIS EVENING. THIS IS ALSO THE POINT IN
TIME THAT COLDER AIR BEGINS TO PUSH IN FROM THE NORTH AFTER
SUNSET INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOME LOWER VALLEYS ARE SEEING
RAIN DUE TO MILDER TEMPERATURES BUT THIS SHOULD CHANGE OVER TO
SNOW, ESPECIALLY WITH ANY CONVECTIVE ELEMENT. ANY SHOWERS LOOK
TO BRING REDUCTION IN VISIBILITIES AND BRIEF IMPACTS WITH WET
ROADS IN THE LOWER VALLEYS AND SNOW COVERED ROADS IN THE HIGH
VALLEYS AND MOUNTAINS. SOME LOWER VALLEYS COULD SEE SOME SNOW ON
THE ROADWAYS THOUGH THIS EVENING WITH THIS FINAL PUSH AS THE
COLDER AIR PUSHES IN BEHIND THE TROUGH.
ONE INTERESTING FEATURE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON AS THIS TROUGH
PASSES THROUGH THIS EVENING IS THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A
MESO-LOW DEFINED BY A H5 AND H7 CIRCULATION MOVING SOUTH OF THE
FOUR CORNERS AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH THROUGH NORTHWEST NEW
MEXICO. THIS MESO-LOW SKIRTS OUR SOUTHERN BORDER AND HI RES
GUIDANCE INDICATES A BAND OF HEAVIER SNOW POTENTIALLY FORMING ON
THE NORTHERN SIDE OF IT. AT THIS TIME, THIS LOW AND
PRECIPITATION BAND STAYS TO THE SOUTH ACROSS NORTHWEST NEW
MEXICO. CURRENTLY HAVE 2 TO 5 INCHES IN THE FORECAST WITH THE
HIGHER END OF THAT ACROSS SOUTHERN LA PLATA AND ARCHULETA
COUNTIES, KEEPING IT AT SUB-ADVISORY LEVELS. THIS IS SOMETHING
TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS EVENING THOUGH AS LOCALLY HIGHER SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE IF THIS LOW AND BAND DEVELOPS FURTHER
NORTH THAN NORTHWEST NEW MEXICO SO KEEP AN EYE ON THE LATEST
UPDATES.
THIS TROUGH WILL PUSH EASTWARD BY FRIDAY MORNING WITH DRIER AIR
ACCOMPANYING THE COLD AIR AS H7 TEMPS DROP TO -12C TO -16C
RANGE. WE COULD STILL SEE LINGERING LIGHT OROGRAPHIC SNOWFALL
ACROSS THE NORTHERN SLOPES AND ALONG THE DIVIDE THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING POTENTIALLY IMPACTING THE MORNING COMMUTE BUT OVERALL
RATES SHOULD LESSEN AND ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS APPEAR MINIMAL
AFTER 12Z (5 AM MST) FRIDAY MORNING. THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE WESTERN COLORADO MOUNTAINS
AND LA SALS AND ABAJOS IN SE UTAH AND APPEAR ON TRACK SO MADE NO
ADJUSTMENTS. SOME AREAS OF FOG IS POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING DUE TO ANY LINGERING MOISTURE OR RECENT
PRECIPITATION. LOW CLOUDS COULD HANG AROUND BUT WE SHOULD SEE
OVERALL IMPROVING CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH DRIER
CONDITIONS BUT COLDER MORNING LOWS AND DAYTIME HIGHS. THE WIND
WILL PICK UP AS WELL FRIDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH
BREEZY CONDITIONS AND GUSTS POTENTIALLY IN THE 30S AND 40S
ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 324 PM MST THU JAN 8 2026
QUIET WEATHER AND A GRADUAL INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES IS THE
STORY FOR THE LONG TERM. A RIDGE BUILDING OFF OF THE COAST OF
CALIFORNIA DRIVES THE QUIET WEATHER AS THE FLOW MOVING ABOVE THE
RIDGE AND INTO OUR CWA IS DRY THIS WEEKEND. THE AMPLITUDE OF
THE WEST COAST RIDGE WEAKENS EARLY IN THE WORKWEEK, WHICH WILL
ALLOW FOR PACIFIC MOISTURE TO ADVECT ACROSS THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS.
AS MOISTURE MOVES IN, RIDGING STARTS TO BUILD AGAIN, ALLOWING
FOR FLOW TO SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY WHILE PWATS ABOVE 150% OF
NORMAL ADVECT INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AS SUCH, POPS INCREASE IN
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, WHERE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SUPPORTS OROGRAPHIC LIFT. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT
MOISTURE MOVES OUT, AND THE AMPLITUDE OF THE RIDGING TO OUR WEST
BEGINS TO REALLY INCREASE, ENDING THE UNSETTLED WEATHER IN THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. WITH THIS PATTERN ALSO COMES AN INCREASE IN
TEMPERATURES. ON SATURDAY HIGHS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL, BUT BY
NEXT WEEK HIGHS COULD INCREASE TO AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 858 PM MST THU JAN 8 2026
SNOW SHOWERS MAY RESULT IN MVFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AND CEILINGS
BELOW ILS BREAKPOINTS TONIGHT. STRONG WIND GUSTS, POTENTIALLY
GREATER THAN 25 KTS AT SOME SITES, IS POSSIBLE AFTER 06Z.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE LATE TONIGHT, AND SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR.
LOW CLOUDS AND SNOWFALL MAY LINGER IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN INTO
THE AFTERNOON. LOW STRATUS AND OR FOG IS POSSIBLE AT SOME SITES
IN THE LATE MORNING IF THE SKIES CAN CLEAR AND WINDS STAY CALM.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST FRIDAY FOR COZ004-009-
010-012-013-017>019.
UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST FRIDAY FOR UTZ028.
SHORT TERM...MDA
LONG TERM...GF
AVIATION...TGJT
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