912
FXUS65 KGJT 270515
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1115 PM MDT TUE MAY 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HOTTER AND DRIER AIR WITH GUSTY WINDS ARRIVE TO THE REGION
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
- RED FLAG WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT WEDNESDAY FROM 1-8PM FOR
PORTIONS OF EASTERN UTAH AND THE FOUR CORNERS AREA. A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THURSDAY, AND CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1018 PM MDT TUE MAY 26 2026
HOT, DRY, AND WINDY CONDITIONS RETURN
TONIGHT, OUR REGION IS CAUGHT BETWEEN TWO STREAMS OF MOISTURE.
DENSE STRATUS LINGERS ALONG THE DIVIDE ALONG THE FRONT EDGE OF
THE STALLED LOW TO OUR SOUTH, AND SPOTTY SHOWERS ARE STRUGGLING
TO PERSIST OFF TO OUR WEST IN UTAH. LITTLE ADDITIONAL
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION THOUGH, AND OVER THE
COURSE OF THE NEXT 24 HOURS, DRIER FLOW WILL FILTER INTO THE
CWA, CUTTING OFF THE MOISTURE SUPPLY. THIS COMES ON THE LEADING
EDGE OF A DEEP CLOSED LOW WHICH HAS TRANSITED OVER THE GREAT
BASIN AS OF THIS EVENING. THIS WILL KICK OFF A THREE-DAY
STRETCH OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR PORTIONS OF THE
REGION, PRIMARILY FOCUSED ON EASTERN UTAH AND THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION. MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN CONSISTENT IN THE MOVEMENT (OR LACK
THEREOF) OF THE LOW, LEADING TO SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING IF
WEST-CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN COLORADO WILL SEE CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. EITHER WAY THOUGH,
THE LOW BUDGES AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND, BRINGING A QUICK
BOUT OF COOLER AIR AND WEAKER WINDS, EFFECTIVELY DIMINISHING THE
FIRE THREAT.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1114 PM MDT TUE MAY 26 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A FEW
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FOR SITES CLOSER TO THE DIVIDE IN THE
AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS UP TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
AFTERNOON IN EASTERN UTAH.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1018 PM MDT TUE MAY 26 2026
WEDNESDAY'S SETUP FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS REMAINS
CONSISTENT WITH EASTERN UTAH AND THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BEING
THE FAVORED AREAS FOR FIRE RISKS AND WHERE RED FLAG WARNINGS ARE
IN EFFECT. DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN CONSISTENT IN THE
UPPER- LEVEL PATTERN HEADING INTO THURSDAY THOUGH. PREVIOUS
DAYS' FORECASTS SAW THE LOW TO OUR WEST (WHICH IS DRIVING THE
HOT, DRY, AND WINDY PATTERN) STALL OUT OVER THE GREAT BASIN, BUT
OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS WE'VE SEEN TRENDS LEAN TOWARDS A SLIGHT
SOUTHWESTERN MOVEMENT OF THE LOW. THIS PULLS PORTIONS OF WESTERN
COLORADO OUT OF THE HIGHER WIND GUSTS, AND OUT OF CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS. COLORADO ZONES 207 AND 290, AND UTAH ZONES
486, 487, AND 490 REMAIN IN A FIRE WEATHER WATCH ON THURSDAY,
BUT IT IS STILL TOO DIFFICULT TO GAUGE THE POTENTIAL FOR RED
FLAG CONDITIONS ALONG I-70 AND US-40. THE WAY MODELS ARE
TRENDING WOULD SUGGEST THESE AREAS MAY NOT NEED FIRE WEATHER
HIGHLIGHTS, BUT CONFIDENCE IS STILL TOO LOW TO SAY DEFINITIVELY.
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACTUALLY LOOK TO BE EXACERBATED ON
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW WILL LIKELY RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF
OVER THE GREAT BASIN, BRINGING STRONGER GUSTS BACK TO THE CWA.
AGAIN, THE AFOREMENTIONED ZONES IN EASTERN UTAH AND AROUND THE
FOUR CORNERS WILL BE FAVORED FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. AS THE FORECAST STANDS NOW, FRIDAY HOLDS THE BEST
CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL ZONES IN WEST-CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN
COLORADO TO JOIN IN THE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. HOWEVER, WE NEED
BETTER CONSISTENCY FROM MODEL RUN-TO-RUN BEFORE WE CAN SAY WITH
CERTAINTY.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM TO 8 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR COZ207-
290.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR COZ207-290.
UT...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM TO 8 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR UTZ486-
487-490.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR UTZ486-487-490.
DISCUSSION...BS/TGJT
AVIATION...TGJT
FIRE WEATHER...TGJT
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