283
FXUS65 KGJT 201707
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1107 AM MDT MON APR 20 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SOME HIGH VALLEYS WILL EXPERIENCE SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES
AGAIN TONIGHT.
- SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.
- WIND GUSTS OF 40-55 MPH WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM.
- UNSETTLED...COOLER AND WETTER WEATHER...WILL MOVE IN TO END
OUT THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1030 PM MDT SUN APR 19 2026
A CLOSED LOW OFF THE PACIFIC COAST HAS A WEAKER TROUGH
UNDERCUTTING IT AND HEADING TOWARD THE DESERTSW THIS EVENING.
WE REMAIN UNDER DOWNSTREAM RIDGING...AMPLIFIED BY A DEEP TROUGH
OVER MUCH OF EASTERN NOAM. GOES ALPW (ADVECTED LAYER PWAT) IS
VERIFYING PREVIOUS MODEL SOLUTIONS OF A GULF AND SUBTROP TAP OF
MOISTURE ADVECTING NORTHEAST TOWARD THE 4 CORNERS. THIS
MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS RETURN FLOW AROUND A STRONG SURFACE HIGH
OVER THE S.PLAINS WHICH IS LIKELY BEING ENHANCED BY HEIGHT FALLS
TO THE WEST AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH. THIS MOISTURE WILL
BE WELL ELEVATED BY THE TIME IT PROGRESSES INTO OUR CWA EARLY
TOMORROW. IT SHOULD START OUT IN THE FORM OF ACCAS WHICH WILL
BLOSSOM INTO SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM OVER THE
SOUTHERN HIGH TERRAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON. LINGERING MOSITURE
ALONG THE DIVIDE WILL THEN LEAD TO ANOTHER ROUND OF
ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THE
HOTTEST DAY OF THE FORECAST. REALLY NOT CONFIDENT MUCH WILL
REACH THE GROUND AS WETTING RAINFALL AS MOST WILL BE VIRGA OR
VERY LIGHT SHOWERS. THE HIGHER IMPACT WEATHER ARRIVES ON
WEDNESDAY IN THE FORM OF STRONG WINDS. THE UPSTREAM LOW WILL BE
MOVING INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST LEAVING A STRONG SOUTHERLY
GRADIENT DOWNSTREAM OVER OUR CWA. EXPECT THOSE STRONG UPPER
LEVEL WINDS TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE MAKING FOR PERIODS OF
WINDS GUSTING 40 TO 55 MPH THROUGH MOST OF THE VALLEYS ACROSS
THE REGION. THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES TO OUR NW CWA LATE IN THE DAY
ON WEDNESDAY. THE WELL MIXED ATMOSPHERE AHEAD OF THIS WILL LEAD
TO HIGH BASED SHOWERS ENHANCING THE WIND THREAT AND SOME HIGHER
GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA WILL GET
THE BULK OF THIS STORM SYSTEM WITH MORE SNOW ACROSS THE HIGH
PEAKS OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. AT THIS TIME IMPACTS WILL BE
LIMITED TO BRIEF WINTER DRIVING CONDITIONS OVER THE HIGH PASSES.
PATTERN SHIFT LATE WEEK:
MOVING FORWARD, A COOLER AND WETTER WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE USHERED
IN THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OUT WEST. IT WILL BRING BACK TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOWFALL FOR THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. IMPACTS FOR THIS LATE
WEEK EVENT LOOK TO BE MORE BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES FOR THE HIGH
VALLEYS AND TEMPORARY WINTER DRIVING CONDITIONS OVER SOME OF THE
MOUNTAIN PASSES.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1105 AM MDT MON APR 20 2026
SOME BREEZY WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON, PRIMARILY AT
KEGE, KRIL, AND KHDN WHERE GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR 20 KTS.
STRONGER GUSTS ARE LIKELY TOMORROW, THOUGH NOT UNTIL BEYOND THE
TAF PERIOD (AFTER 18 UTC). THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT
SHOWERS AT KTEX TODAY, BUT OVERALL, VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...TGJT
AVIATION...TGJT
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