013
FXUS65 KGJT 260542
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1142 PM MDT SAT APR 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDESPREAD RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW THROUGH EARLY MONDAY AS A
PACIFIC SYSTEM WORKS ACROSS THE ROCKIES.
- WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
THROUGH MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT FOR SOME MOUNTAIN AREAS ABOVE
9,000 FEET. TRAVEL OVER MOUNTAIN PASSES MAY BECOME DIFFICULT
DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS.
- THE COOLER AND UNSETTLED WEATHER PERSISTS THROUGH THE WORK
WEEK AND POSSIBLY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1021 PM MDT SAT APR 25 2026
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION THIS WEEKEND:
A TROUGH IS PRESENTLY DRAPED ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND
PLANES, AND WITH MILD MOISTURE FLOWING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH, WE ARE TRAPPED UNDER DENSE CLOUD COVER AND A FEW
ACCOMPANYING SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION. ACTIVE CONDITIONS
DEVELOPED TODAY AS A RESULT, YET THE BULK OF IMPACTFUL
PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED TO ARRIVE LATER TONIGHT AND INTO
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TOMORROW, LASTING THROUGH MIDNIGHT
SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS IS THANKS TO A SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING THROUGH
THE PARENT TROUGH, BRINGING WITH IT BOLSTERED UPPER-LEVEL
DYNAMICS AND ANOMALOUSLY HIGH MOISTURE (PWAT'S COULD NEAR 90TH
PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR). TEMPERATURES ARE WARMER THAN
NORMAL TO BEGIN THE STORM PERIOD THOUGH. SO, WE'RE LOOKING AT A
VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW EVENT WITH A SNOW LEVEL HOVERING
AROUND 8.5 KFT BEFORE FALLING TO AROUND 7KFT BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT, WHICH LOOKS TO PASS THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
WHILE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE PERSISTENT FOR ALL MOUNTAIN
ZONES UNTIL THE SHORTWAVE EXITS THE AREA, THE EARLIER PORTION OF
THE STORM (ROUGHLY BEFORE 6PM SUNDAY) WILL FAVOR THE SAN JUANS
BEFORE FLOW SHIFTS TO NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE. AT
THAT POINT, THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COLORADO MOUNTAINS WILL BE
FAVORED. 6-12" OF SNOW ACCUMULATION ARE EXPECTED OVER THE SAN
JUANS, GRAND MESA, ELKS, WEST ELKS, AND FLAT TOPS, AND THUS
THESE RANGES ARE UNDER A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. NBM GUIDANCE
IS BECOMING LESS OPTIMISTIC FOR THE PARK RANGE AND EASTERN
UINTAS TO REACH CRITERIA THOUGH, AND HENCE THEY ARE NOT INCLUDED
IN THE ADVISORY. REGARDLESS, WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS THE
STORM APPROACHES FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES THAT MAY WARRANT
THE ZONES' INCLUSION IN THE ADVISORY.
IN ADDITION TO THE SNOWY WEATHER, LOOK FOR GUSTY WINDS TO
DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AREAS AROUND THE FOUR CORNERS WILL BE
THE FAVORED LOCATIONS FOR THE STRONGEST GUSTS, UP TO 45 MPH IN
SOME LOCATIONS. ALONG AND NORTH OF I-70, GUSTS MAY STILL REACH
30-35 MPH WITH LOCALIZED STRONGER GUSTS POSSIBLE.
ACTIVE WEATHER BEYOND:
A SECOND, MUCH DRIER SHORTWAVE FOLLOWS SHORTLY BEHIND THE
FIRST, ARRIVING NEAR MID-DAY ON MONDAY, LEAVING VIRTUALLY NO
BREAK FROM THE ACTIVE WEATHER. THIS SYSTEM IS TRENDING TOWARDS
BEING BRIEF AND MINIMALLY IMPACTFUL. HOWEVER, NORTHERN COLORADO
RANGES ARE LIKELY (60-80% CHANCE) TO SEE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION
OF AT LEAST A FEW INCHES BY THE END OF THE DAY TUESDAY. AFTER A
BRIEF LULL IN ACTIVITY ON WEDNESDAY, EARLY INDICATIONS PER
ENSEMBLE FORECASTS ARE THAT ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE WILL RISE
INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST FROM THE SOUTH ON THURSDAY. THE
CURRENT INDICATION IS THAT MUCH OF THIS MOISTURE WILL RESIDE
EAST OF THE ROCKIES, THOUGH PRECIPITATION WOULD STILL BE
EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WEST SLOPE BARRING ANY
SIGNIFICANT SHIFTS IN MODEL TRENDS. STAY TUNED FOR ADDITIONAL
UPDATES OVER THE COMING DAYS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1141 PM MDT SAT APR 25 2026
OVERNIGHT SHOWERS WILL COVER MOST OF THE AREA WITH ILS TO IFR
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING IN LIGHT PRECIPITATION AND LOWER CLOUDS.
AS WE MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY, INSTABILITY INCREASES INTRODUCING
THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION RATES
COULD LEAD TO IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS FOR BRIEF PERIODS. GUSTY WINDS
NEAR STORMS AND SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS WELL.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT SUNDAY NIGHT FOR
COZ009-012-013-019.
UT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...TGJT
AVIATION...TGJT
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