252
FXUS65 KGJT 291107
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
507 AM MDT WED APR 29 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- FREEZE WARNINGS IN PLACE FOR THE YAMPA BASIN AND CENTRAL
COLORADO BASIN TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING.
- ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY, WITH SOME SNOW MIXED IN 8000 FEET AND
ABOVE.
- ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WORKS ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WITH MEASURABLE MOUNTAIN SNOW AND RAIN MAKING IT TO
VALLEY FLOORS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1052 PM MDT TUE APR 28 2026
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE 18Z MODELS ARE TRACKING WELL WITH THE
CURRENT WEATHER PATTERN WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL CANADA AND
OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST, AND RIDGING OFF THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST EXTENDING TO THE NORTH UP OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA. THE 00Z
SOUNDING SHOWS THE ATMOSPHERE HAS DRIED SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE ZONAL
FLOW AND THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION CONTINUES TO CAP THE REGION BELOW
ABOUT 550MB. HENCE, WE ONLY SAW SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS THROUGH THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS TODAY. TOMORROW IS PROMISING TO BE A
BIT MORE ACTIVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COLORADO MOUNTAINS
AS A SHORTWAVE IN THE GREAT BASIN EJECTS TO THE EAST ACROSS EASTERN
UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON TO
PUSH THE INVERSION OUT, AND PROVIDE COOL AIR ALOFT AND BETTER
CONVECTIVE DYNAMICS. LOOK FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS INITIATING IN THE
LATE MORNING OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH DIURNAL HEATING, BECOMING MORE
SCATTERED WITH EMBEDDED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE DRIER
ATMOSPHERE, LITTLE ACCUMULATION IS LIKELY, BUT SMALL PEA-SIZED HAIL
IS POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL QUIET THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
THE LOW OFF THE SOCAL COAST WILL MAKE A TURN TO THE EAST TOMORROW
AFTERNOON MAKING LANDFALL BY THURSDAY MORNING AS ANOTHER STRONGER
SHORTWAVE DROPS INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND EJECTS EAST OVER THE
REGION. THIS WILL BE THE NEXT REAL CHANCE FOR MOISTURE ACROSS THE
REGION, BUT IT WILL BE MUCH LESS THAN THE LAST SYSTEM. AS THE LOW
TRACKS INLAND ALONG THE US-MEXICO BORDER, IT WILL PULL SOME MOISTURE
UP INTO THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS IT PASSES TO
THE SOUTH. LOOK FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE
DAY THURSDAY ACROSS THE REGION MOSTLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL BE
HIGHER TO THE EAST OVER THE MOUNTAINS, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE DIVIDE.
SNOW LEVELS WILL BE AROUND 8000 FEET ACROSS THE NORTH TO 9000 FEET
DOWN SOUTH THURSDAY, FALLING TO 7000 AND 8000 FEET RESPECTIVELY
OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY. BY THURSDAY EVENING, SHOWERS WILL BE ENDING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS WITH THE ACTIVITY BECOMING FOCUSED TO THE
SOUTH ON THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW
ACCUMULATION ON THE PASSES IN THE SAN JUANS, BUT FOR THIS LATE
STORM, WINTER HEADLINE ARE NOT LIKELY. EXPECT THE HEAVIEST SNOW
FRIDAY MORNING WITH SHOWERS TAPERING OFF THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. YOU
WILL STILL WANT TO STAY ALERT TO THE FORECAST AND FOR POSSIBLE
WINTER DRIVING CONDITIONS IF YOU'LL BE DRIVING IN THE SOUTHERN
MOUNTAINS FRIDAY.
EXPECT LIGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS TO CONTINUE SATURDAY OVER THE
SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS, ENDING SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN OVER THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO FIVE TO TEN DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
SUNDAY AND MONDAY UNDER THE HIGH PRESSURE, BUT ANOTHER SYSTEM IS
LOOKING TO MOVE THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK TO COOL THINGS DOWN AGAIN. THE
INITIAL LOOK AT THIS NEXT SYSTEM IS ON THE DRIER SIDE, BUT IT'S WAY
TO SOON TO TELL. STAY TUNED TO SEE HOW IT TURNS OUT.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 507 AM MDT WED APR 29 2026
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS DOMINATE THE TAF FORECAST AS MID
TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS DRIFT THROUGH THIS MORNING. INSTABILITY ON
THIS AFTERNOON WITH A PASSING WAVE WILL LEAD TO SHOWER ACTIVITY
OVER THE COLORADO HIGH COUNTRY WITH KASE AND KEGE THE MOST
LIKELY AREAS TO SEE A PASSING SHOWER OR POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM.
GUSTY WINDS IN EXCESS OF 35 MPH WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT NEAR
SHOWERS AND STORMS.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM MDT THIS MORNING FOR COZ001-002-008.
UT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DB
AVIATION...TGJT
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