555
FXUS65 KGJT 290433
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1033 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY.
- RED FLAG WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN COLORADO
VALLEYS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOONS.
- A PATTERN SHIFT IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK, BRINGING COOLER
TEMPERATURES, VALLEY RAIN, AND POTENTIALLY SOME MOUNTAIN
SNOW.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1021 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2026
HOT, DRY, AND WINDY WEATHER CONTINUES:
HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS TO OUR SOUTHEAST WHILE A JET REMAINS JUST
TO OUR NORTH, KEEPING EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO UNDER A
HOT, DRY, AND WINDY PATTERN. PASSING WEAK, DRY SHORTWAVES IN
THE FLOW TO THE NORTH WILL INCREASE MIXING AND TAP INTO SOME
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT, RESULTING IN AFTERNOON WIND GUSTS OF 25-35
MPH THROUGH MONDAY. SURFACE LEVELS REMAIN VERY DRY, WITH LOWER
ELEVATIONS SEEING MINIMUM DAYTIME HUMIDITY VALUES BELOW 15%. AS
A RESULT, FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN ELEVATED TO CRITICAL.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO RUN 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL, APPROACHING OR POSSIBLY BREAKING RECORDS.
PATTERN SHIFT:
A TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL
TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. IT'S
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA ON
TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BEHIND THE FRONT WITH NEAR-
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FORECASTED TO RETURN BY WEDNESDAY. AT THE
SAME TIME, MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH WITH PWATS
CLIMBING TO 150-200% OF NORMAL. THERE ARE DISCREPANCIES IN
MODEL GUIDANCE AS TO WHETHER THE LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
BE THE ONLY TRIGGER FOR PRECIPITATION OR IF A SECONDARY WAVE
WILL DEVELOP AND ENHANCE COVERAGE. AS IT STANDS, BLENDED
GUIDANCE IS FAVORING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION, WITH NIGHTTIME
SNOW AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 9000 FEET.
A SECOND PACIFIC SYSTEM IS SET TO MOVE THROUGH ON FRIDAY,
POTENTIALLY BRINGING AN EVEN MORE IMPRESSIVE COOL DOWN TO AROUND 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AND ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 533 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH WIND
GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1027 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2026
RED FLAG WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF NORTHWEST COLORADO SUNDAY
AND MONDAY AFTERNOONS. A FUELS UPDATE HAS RESULTED IN THE
EXPANSION OF THE RED FLAG WARNINGS TO INCLUDE CO FIRE WEATHER
ZONES 203 AND 205 BELOW 7500 FEET. THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH ON
MONDAY HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A RED FLAG WARNING. INCREASING
MOISTURE AND A SHIFT TO COOLER AND UNSETTLED WEATHER ON TUESDAY
WILL BRING AN END TO THIS STRETCH OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 8 PM MDT SUNDAY FOR COZ200-202-
203-205.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 8 PM MDT MONDAY FOR COZ200-202-
203-205.
UT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...TGJT
AVIATION...TGJT
FIRE WEATHER...TGJT
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