649
FXUS65 KGJT 202349
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
549 PM MDT SAT JUL 20 2019
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 306 PM MDT SAT JUL 20 2019
A WEAK SHORTWAVE, THAT BROUGHT SOME EARLY MORNING THUNDER TO THE
REGION, CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS COLORADO AT THIS HOUR BRINGING
MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE SAN JUANS AND AREAS ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. A FEW STRAY RETURNS ARE SHOWING UP FOR THE
GRAND MESA AND MOFFAT COUNTY SO BUMPED UP POPS A BIT TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS. LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS CONVECTION
AND BUMP UP POPS, IF APPROPRIATE. THE NAMNEST AND HRRR ARE BOTH
HANDLING THIS CONVECTION FAIRLY WELL AND HAVE ALL SHOWERS AND
STORMS ENDING BY 8PM. AS PEAK HEATING ENDS, AND THE UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT SHIFTS TO THE FRONT RANGE, IT FOLLOWS THAT CONVECTION WILL
DIE SO FORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NORTHERLY,
FOR THE MOST PART, WHICH WILL USHER IN SOME DRIER, AND COOLER,
AIR.
A DRIER DAY IS IN THE FORECAST ON SUNDAY AS PWATS LOWER. LIGHT
WESTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED ALOFT WITH LIGHT WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
AT THE SURFACE. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM CAN NOT BE COMPLETELY
RULED OUT ALONG THE DIVIDE GIVEN A BIT OF REMAINING INSTABILITY TO
THE EAST, HOWEVER ANY SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY BEFORE SUNSET.
EXPECT SIMILAR HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE WESTERN SLOPE ON
SUNDAY AS WERE SEEN ON SATURDAY.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM MDT SAT JUL 20 2019
A LARGE AMPLITUDE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER OUR
CWA MONDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. SUBSIDENCE ALOFT
WILL CAP MOST CONVECTION AS WELL AS DECREASED MOISTURE THOUGH A
STRAY SHOWER OR STORM MAY BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE HIGHEST PEAKS OF
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WHILE WE REMAIN
MOSTLY DRY, MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A STREAM OF MOISTURE
MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH BUT ONLY REACHING ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO
THROUGH MIDWEEK. WEDNESDAY ONWARDS, THIS MOISTURE LOOKS TO GET
ENTRAINED IN THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND AS A WEAK WAVE DRIFTS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER STATES, THIS MOISTURE FINALLY MOVES INTO
OUR AREA. MID TO LONG TERM MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT
SHOWING AN UPTICK IN CONVECTION AND RAINFALL WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. WHILE THE MOISTURE TAP ISN'T AS APPARENT, SOME HINTS OF
IT REMAIN. EXPECTING MOST OF THE CONVECTION TO BE RECYCLED
MOISTURE FROM THE INITIAL PUSH. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT FAIRLY
WARM AND FROM MIDWEEK ONWARDS, INCREASED CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL
DROP DAYTIME HIGHS A FEW DEGREES.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 541 PM MDT SAT JUL 20 2019
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH IN INTENSITY THROUGH THE
EVENING IN NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COLORADO. HDN, EGE, RIL AND
POSSIBLY ASE MAY SEE A FEW MORE BRIEF BOUTS OF RAIN WITH SOME
THUNDER BEFORE THINGS DIE DOWN AROUND SUNSET. CIG AND VIS WILL
REMAIN VFR, HOWEVER AN ISOLATED HEAVIER STORM COULD BRIEFLY
REDUCE HDN AND EGE TO MVFR OR BREAK ILS CIG THRESHOLDS. EXPECT
CLEARING OVERNIGHT WITH VFR AT AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGHOUT THE DAY
ON SUNDAY.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
SHORT TERM...TGR/MAC
LONG TERM...TGR
AVIATION...MAC
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