541  
FXUS65 KGJT 262259  
AFDGJT  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO  
459 PM MDT SAT JUL 26 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
- WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY  
DUE TO THE HOT, DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS. THEREFORE, RED FLAG  
WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF EASTERN UTAH AND MUCH OF  
WESTERN COLORADO.  
 
- WINDS LIGHTEN UP SOME ON SUNDAY BUT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER  
CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST-CENTRAL  
UTAH AND NORTHWEST COLORADO, SO THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS  
BEEN UPGRADED TO A RED FLAG WARNING.  
 
- AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN  
AND CENTRAL DIVIDE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON.  
 
- SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA AS WELL AS LOCAL  
FIRES WILL KEEP SKIES HAZY TO SMOKY ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN  
UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO TODAY THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY,  
RESULTING IN REDUCED VISIBILITY AND POOR AIR QUALITY.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
 
 
ISSUED AT 349 PM MDT SAT JUL 26 2025  
 
CLOUD COVER HAS INCREASED WITH THE AFTERNOON HEATING, BUT  
PRECIPITATION HAS GENERALLY REMAINED TO THE EAST OF OUR CWA.  
THERE ARE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE DIVIDE, BUT WITH DRY  
AIR IN PLACE NOT MUCH ELSE IS EXPECTED IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION  
THIS AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE ONGOING  
ACROSS THE REGION DUE TO LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES (DOWN TO  
SINGLE DIGITS FOR MUCH OF THE CWA), AND STRONG WIND GUSTS FROM  
MIXING WITH A STRONG JET STREAK OVERHEAD. WINDS WILL CALM AFTER  
SUNSET. TOMORROW WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY, AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN  
AND A JET STREAK REMAINS ALOFT. THE STRONGEST WINDS ALOFT  
TOMORROW WILL PRIMARILY BE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF OUR  
CWA, AND AS RESULT THIS IS WHERE THE MOST WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF  
RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.  
 
INCREASED AMOUNTS OF SMOKE FROM THE DRAGON BRAVO FIRE AND  
MONROE CANYON FIRE WILL MOVE INTO OUR CWA TOMORROW WITH THE  
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. THE HRRR SMOKE MODEL SHOWS MOST OF THE SMOKE  
TRAVELING THROUGH EASTERN UTAH AND NORTH OF I-70 IN WESTERN  
COLORADO.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 349 PM MDT SAT JUL 26 2025  
 
AN OPEN WAVE OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST AND AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE  
TO THE EAST WILL BRING MONSOONAL MOISTURE TO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.  
THIS MOISTURE WILL INITIALLY BE SHUNTED TO THE FRONT RANGE  
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. FOR US, WE WILL SEE MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS  
WITH THE USUAL AFTERNOON GUSTS AND HOT TEMPERATURES UNDER BROAD  
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. WEDNESDAY ONWARDS, THE WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS  
THE AREA AND WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING A LITTLE FURTHER  
WEST, PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS  
AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST COVERAGE WILL BE ON WEDNESDAY AND  
DESPITE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVERHEAD THROUGH THE REST OF THE  
WEEK, ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL REMAIN UNDER THE HIGH TO ALLOW SOME  
CONVECTION TO FORM EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS CONVECTION,  
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, SHOULD BE MORE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER  
TERRAIN. ALL THAT BEING SAID, SOME MODEL DISCREPANCIES STILL  
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST SO LOOK FOR SOME CHANGES OVER THE COMING  
DAYS. HOT TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT THE WEEK, DROPPING TO MORE  
NORMAL VALUES AS THE PRECIPITATION MOVES IN WEDNESDAY ONWARDS.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 456 PM MDT SAT JUL 26 2025  
 
WINDS WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING AND BECOME LIGHT AND TERRAIN  
DRIVEN. TOMORROW WINDS INCREASE ONCE AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON  
SIMILAR TO TODAY. WILDFIRE SMOKE IN THE AREA MAY CASE A FEW  
SITES TO HAVE LOWER VIS, BUT VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE  
MOST PART.  
 

 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
 
ISSUED AT 349 PM MDT SAT JUL 26 2025  
 
DEEP MIXING THIS AFTERNOON HAS RESULTED IN GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS  
ACROSS THE REGION AS AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK MOVES OVERHEAD.  
THE STRONG WIND GUSTS IN COMBINATION WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY  
HAS RESULTED IN WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS,  
HENCE RED FLAG WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT TODAY. TOMORROW, WINDS  
WILL LIGHTEN UP SOME AS THE JET STREAK SHIFTS TO THE NORTHWEST,  
BUT WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE  
EXPECTED WHERE WIND GUSTS EXCEED THRESHOLDS. AS A RESULT, RED  
FLAG WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT TOMORROW AS WELL.  
 

 
   
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
CO...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ200>203-  
205-207-290-292-294.  
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 8 PM MDT SUNDAY FOR COZ200-202-  
290.  
UT...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR UTZ485>487-  
490-491.  
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 8 PM MDT SUNDAY FOR UTZ487-490.  
 

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...GF  
LONG TERM...TGR  
AVIATION...TGJT  
FIRE WEATHER...TGJT  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab CO Page
The Nexlab UT Page Main Text Page