394
FXUS65 KGJT 302317
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
417 PM MST FRI JAN 30 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL MOVE IN TO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
TONIGHT, WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF 1-2 INCHES AT PASS
LEVEL.
- A SLIPPERY MORNING COMMUTE IS POSSIBLE OVER RABBIT EARS PASS
TOMORROW.
- WARMING DAYS, COOL NIGHTS WITH DRY WEATHER PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND MOST OF NEXT WEEK FOR MOST OF THE REGION.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 225 PM MST FRI JAN 30 2026
SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS HOUR, ALTHOUGH SOME
LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE LINGERING OVER
THE NORTHERN DIVIDE MOUNTAINS. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS TO OUR WEST,
WITH DEEP TROUGHING TO THE EAST, KEEPING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
DOMINANT. THE NEXT WAVE MOVES IN TONIGHT, BRINGING LIGHT SNOW TO THE
NORTHERN DIVIDE. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH, AS
FORECAST PWATS ARE 160-200% OF NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DOES FAVOR GOOD OROGRAPHIC LIFT OVER THE
NORTHERN RANGES, ESPECIALLY THE PARK RANGE, BUT ADDITIONAL DYNAMIC
FORCING IS LACKING. SO WITH AMPLE MOISTURE BUT LIMITED FORCING, THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS ARE LOOKING AT ANOTHER 1-2 INCHES OF ACCUMULATING
SNOW BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. LIGHT FLURRIES AND LOW CLOUDS WILL
LINGER INTO TOMORROW EVENING, BUT ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION WILL BE
MINIMAL AT BEST. TRAVEL OVER RABBIT EARS PASS COULD BE SLIPPERY
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TOMORROW AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, BRINGING CLEARING SKIES. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL
ALLOW FOR SOME CHILLY OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES, PARTICULARLY IN
FAVORED COLD POOL LOCATIONS. HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL SEE TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE TO RUN NEAR TO A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL, WHILE THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS WILL RUN 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 225 PM MST FRI JAN 30 2026
GOING INTO NEXT WEEK THE LONGWAVE PATTERN BECOMES TRANSIENT WITH THE
RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN SHIFTING EAST OVER THE ROCKIES AND A DEEP
THROUGH SLIDING IN BEHIND IT. THE DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO WITH THE TROUGH PASSING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS OF EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO
BRINGING A RETURN OF THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND OROGRAPHIC
SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE PARK AND CENTRAL DIVIDE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. LITTLE SNOW ACCUMULATION IS FORECAST WITH THIS
SYSTEM AS THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS ON THE DRIER SIDE. AS THE LONG WAVE
PATTERN CONTINUING TO MARCH EAST, THE NEXT RIDGE MOVES IN OVER THE
ROCKIES ABOUT FRIDAY WITH A TROUGH CLOSE BEHIND IT LIKELY IMPACTING
THIS REGION SUNDAY INTO EARLY THE FOLLOWING WEEK. IT'S WAY TOO SOON
TO TELL ON THIS LATTER STORM, BUT PATTERNS ARE POINTING TO POSSIBLE
ATMOSPHERIC RIVER ACTION FEEDING THIS SYSTEM. KEEP YOUR FINGERS
CROSSED.
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL PEAK ABOUT TEN DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL IN THE MOUNTAINS AND 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN THE LOWER
VALLEYS FOR EARLY FEBRUARY, COOLING A FEW DEGREES TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH THE TROUGH PASSAGE, AND WARMING BACK TO 10-15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY FRIDAY UNDER THE NEXT RIDGE. CONFIDENCE IS
HIGH FOR THE WARMER TEMPERATURES, BUT THE DIP MID NEXT WEEK UNDER
THE TROUGH COULD BE A BIT COOLER THAN THE CURRENT FORECAST.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 417 PM MST FRI JAN 30 2026
SIMILAR CONDITIONS OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS WITH MOSITURE CREATING MID TO LOW CLOUD DECKS OVER
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS AND THIN HIGH CLOUDS TO THE
SOUTH. OVERALL VFR SHOULD PREVAIL THOUGH TERRAIN OBSCURATION IS
LIKELY TO LINGER INTO SATURDAY OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF
COLORADO. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AS WELL.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
SHORT TERM...BGB
LONG TERM...DB
AVIATION...TGJT
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