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FXUS65 KGJT 181719
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1019 AM MST TUE NOV 18 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- VARIABLE CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERY PRECIP IS EXPECTED TODAY
MAINLY FOR EASTERN UTAH THOUGH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE OVER WESTERN COLORADO LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
- SOME ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL, MAINLY FOR THE SAN JUANS, IS
POSSIBLE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 222 AM MST TUE NOV 18 2025
THE NEXT SYSTEM HAS ALREADY COME ASHORE ACROSS CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS STREAMING OUT AHEAD OF IT.
WHILE THE BEST SUPPORT FOR PRECIP WILL BE AROUND THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE, PIECES OF ENERGY WILL BE ROTATING AROUND SAID LOW
TODAY. AS THESE PIECES OF ENERGY MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA SOME
SHOWERY PRECIP IS EXPECTED, MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN UTAH BEFORE
MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN SLOPE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.
HIGHER TERRAIN WILL BE FAVORED FOR ANY OF THIS PRECIP THANKS TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND TERRAIN PROVIDING SOME NEEDED LIFT.
THAT BEING SAID, QPF AMOUNTS REMAIN LOW WITH ONLY AROUND A TENTH
OF AN INCH PRECIP EXPECTED. IN OTHER WORDS, NOT MUCH AT ALL.
WEDNESDAY, THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL ONLY HAVE MOVED
INLAND TO THE CALIFORNIA/NEVADA BORDER AND FLOW AROUND THE LOW
WILL REMAIN SOUTH THROUGH SOUTHWESTERLY WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO
USHER IN MORE MOISTURE. SOME DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE BRINGING
SOME LIGHT PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA WHILE OTHERS ARE HOLDING OFF
ON PRECIP UNTIL LATER IN THE EVENING. THE VERY SHORT RANGE
MODELS ARE ALSO SHOWING SOME MINOR DISCREPANCIES ON THE ONSET
AND AMOUNTS OF PRECIP. THE NBM FORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT WITH PRECIP
CHANCES STARTING AROUND 20% FOR THE SAN JUANS AND SE UTAH
INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND CHANCES AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.
AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES ARE CONCERNED, DESPITE THE VARIABLE CLOUD
COVER, FLOW WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES RUNNING AROUND 10
DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 222 AM MST TUE NOV 18 2025
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA WEDNESDAY NIGHT, AND MOVE ACROSS THE WEST THROUGH THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WORKWEEK. OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS, MODELS HAVE
BEEN INCONSISTENT RUN TO RUN WITH REGARD TO THE TRACK THIS SYSTEM
WILL TAKE. A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK MIGHT MEAN LESS IMPACTS FOR OUR
CWA, WHICH SOME MODELS HAD BEEN FAVORING A FEW DAYS AGO. IN MORE
RECENT RUNS, THE TRACK HAS SEEMED TO SHIFT A BIT NORTH, AND THE
TIMING OF PRECIPITATION HAS MOVED FROM MIDWEEK TO LATER IN THE
WORKWEEK. ALTHOUGH, GIVEN THE CURRENT DETERMINISTIC FORECASTS, THE
TRACK STILL APPEARS TO BE SOUTHERLY ENOUGH THAT IMPACTS WOULD BE THE
GREATEST IN THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS. FOR THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS,
THERE IS CURRENTLY GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN MEMBERS OF THE ECMWF ENS
AND GFS ENS THAT THERE WILL BE SNOW, AND THAT THE ONSET OF SNOWFALL
WILL BE LATE IN THE WORKWEEK, BUT THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE
DISAGREEMENT ON TOTALS. SO, THERE IS STILL NOT REALLY ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO DISCUSS THE DETAILS OF THIS SYSTEM, BUT IT IS
CERTAINLY WORTH WATCHING HOW THE FORECAST DEVELOPS AS ANOTHER PLUME
OF ANOMALOUS MOISTURE (PWATS 150-200% OF NORMAL) IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO THE CWA LATER THIS WEEK. UNSETTLED WEATHER REMAINS POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE LONG TERM AFTER THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST, BUT
MOSTLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK TO FLUCTUATE
AROUND NORMAL A BIT THROUGH THE LONG TERM, BUT THE DROPS BELOW
NORMAL WILL DEPEND ON WHERE CLOUD COVERAGE IS THE GREATEST.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1018 AM MST TUE NOV 18 2025
MID TO HIGH LEVEL CEILINGS WILL BE COMMON TODAY THOUGH FLIGHT
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE VFR CATEGORY. A FEW
SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE AT KGJT, KCNY, AND KTEX THIS AFTERNOON
WHICH ARE COVERED BY PROB30 GROUPS. GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS
EXPECTED.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
SHORT TERM...TGR
LONG TERM...GF
AVIATION...TGJT
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