965
FXUS65 KGJT 051106
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
506 AM MDT WED AUG 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY, THOUGH THINGS
WARM BACK UP TO NEAR-RECORD TERRITORY THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.
- RED FLAG WARNINGS ARE IN PLACE THE CENTRAL DIVIDE FROM 1 PM TO
8 PM. LOCALIZED CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1033 PM MDT TUE AUG 4 2026
HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE:
TEMPERATURES COOL SLIGHTLY ON WEDNESDAY, THANKS TO A WEAK WAVE
ROTATING AROUND THE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES
WILL ONLY BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER, WITH THE DESERT VALLEYS SEEING
UPPER-90S TO LOW-100S AND THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS SEEING 70S TO LOW
80S. THIS IS ENOUGH TO FINALLY PROVIDE ONE HEAT ADVISORY FREE DAY.
HOWEVER, AS THE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE SOUTHERN
GREAT BASIN INTO THE WEEKEND, TEMPERATURES CLIMB ONCE MORE. NEAR-
RECORD AFTERNOON HIGHS RETURN FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
ADDITIONALLY, THE WESTERN PLACEMENT OF THE HIGH KEEPS EASTERN UTAH
AND WESTERN COLORADO DISCONNECTED FROM ANY MONSOONAL MOISTURE,
KEEPING THINGS DRY. THERE IS A NON-ZERO CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL DIVIDE THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK, BUT EXTREMELY DRY SURFACE LEVELS KEEP WETTING
RAIN CHANCES NEAR-ZERO, WITH THE MAIN CONCERNS WITH ANY STORMS BEING
LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS.
LOOKING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT A STRONGER
TROUGH MOVING ONTO THE WEST COAST, DISPLACING THE CENTER OF THE HIGH
BACK TO THE EAST. THIS OPENS TO DOOR FOR SOME MONSOONAL MOISTURE TO
RETURN TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION INTO MID-NEXT WEEK. SO STAY TUNED,
WE MAY FINALLY SEE SOME RELIEF FROM THE HEAT.
FIRE WEATHER:
HIGH PRESSURE STICKING AROUND WILL KEEP HOT AND DRY WEATHER IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. ON
WEDNESDAY, A JET CLIPS THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE CWA, BUMPING UP
WINDS AND BRINGING 25-35 MPH GUSTS. WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR ZONES ALONG THE CENTRAL DIVIDE, AND RED
FLAG WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FROM 1PM TO 8PM. ELSEWHERE, WINDS WILL
BE BORDERLINE, THEREFORE ONLY LOCALIZED CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. THE JET MOVES EAST BY THURSDAY, WITH THE
OVERALL PRESSURE GRADIENT ALOFT RELAXING. DEEP MIXING WILL HELP TO
BRING DOWN SOME STRONGER GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH, ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE CENTRAL DIVIDE AND AROUND THE FOUR CORNERS. HOWEVER, WITH THESE
MARGINAL WIND GUSTS, ONLY LOCALIZED CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. FRIDAY LOOKS TO FOLLOW A SIMILAR
PATTERN.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 506 AM MDT WED AUG 5 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. ALTHOUGH
THERE MAY BE SMOKE IN THE REGION. WIND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON
WILL REACH 20-30 KT, BEFORE DIMINISHING IN THE EVENING. TYPICAL
DRAINAGE WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1033 PM MDT TUE AUG 4 2026
HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK. RED FLAG
WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR CO ZONES 205 AND 293 FROM 1 PM TO 8 PM
WEDNESDAY. LOCALIZED CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
IN OTHER AREAS. AFTERNOON WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME WEAKER
LATER THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS. WETTING RAINS ARE NOT
EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM MDT THIS
EVENING FOR COZ205-293.
UT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BGB
AVIATION...TGJT
FIRE WEATHER...TGJT
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page