830
FXUS65 KGJT 141943
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
143 PM MDT WED OCT 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT,
WITH SNOW FAVORING THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN COLORADO
MOUNTAINS. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT.
- COOL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
WITH SUB FREEZING NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES FORECAST ACROSS
NORTHWEST COLORADO AND OTHER MOUNTAIN VALLEY AREAS ON THURSDAY
NIGHT. A FREEZE WATCH IS IN EFFECT THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING.
- DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 112 PM MDT WED OCT 14 2026
VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW THROUGH TONIGHT:
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT IS
BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW IS CURRENTLY CENTERED
OVER SOUTHWESTERN COLORADO. THE LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN
COLORADO TODAY AND WILL BE CENTERED OVER EASTERN COLORADO BY
THURSDAY MORNING. SNOWFALL WAS OBSERVED THIS MORNING OVER SOME
MOUNTAIN PASSES AND HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS, SUCH AS THE SAN JUAN
MOUNTAINS AND THE GRAND MESA, BUT SUNRISE AND THE SUBSEQUENT
INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES TRANSITIONED SNOWFALL TO RAINFALL IN
MANY OF THESE AREAS. HOWEVER, SNOWFALL IS STILL THE LIKELY
PRECIPITATION TYPE AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS, AND A TRANSITION
FROM RAIN TO SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT WHERE PRECIPITATION OCCURS IN THE MOUNTAINS.
THE BULK OF THE TOTAL EXPECTED SNOWFALL FOR THE SOUTHERN
COLORADO MOUNTIANS FELL EARLIER TODAY WHILE FORCING FROM THE LOW
WAS MORE FAVORABLE IN THIS AREA. HOWEVER, 1 TO 3 INCHES OF
ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHEST TERRAIN OF THE
SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS. THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS ARE
EXPECTED TO RECEIVE 4 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW ALONG THE HIGHEST
TERRAIN AS FORCING BECOMES MORE FAVORABLE IN THIS AREA THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. ELEVATION-BASED WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH 6 PM FOR THE SOUTHERN
COLORADO MOUNTAINS, AND THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY FOR THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN COLORADO MOUNTAINS.
COOL AND DRY FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK:
DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION AFTER THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES EAST OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS ON THURSDAY MORNING. THE
CURRENT FORECAST KEEPS PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOW THURSDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY OUTSIDE OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AREAS. A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS IS LEFT IN ITS WAKE, AND
COULD LEAD TO THE FIRST HARD FREEZE OF THE YEAR ACROSS NORTHWEST
COLORADO AND SOME MOUNTAIN VALLEYS ON THURSDAY NIGHT.
CONFIDENCE IN THESE OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES HAS INCREASED, SO A
FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WARM SLIGHTLY AFTER
THURSDAY NIGHT, BUT MAY STILL FALL BELOW FREEZING IN SOME AREAS
OF NORTHWEST COLORADO AND IN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE DAILY, BUT WILL STILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1138 AM MDT WED OCT 14 2026
SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD
WITH IFR/MVFR POSSIBLE UNDER THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND STORMS.
LOWER CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL BE COMMON AS THE STORM
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. KASE, KEGE, AND KTEX MAY ALSO SEE
SOME SNOW AS THE SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH. SOME FOG WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT WHERE ANY RAIN/SNOW HAS FALLEN AS
TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO DROP. ILS BREAKPOINTS WILL BE MET FOR MOST
TAF SITES THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. CONDITIONS WILL START TO
IMPROVE THURSDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
FOR COZ001-002-005-008-023.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MDT THURSDAY FOR COZ004-009-
010-012-013.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ018-
019.
UT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...TGJT
AVIATION...RJ
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