402  
FXUS65 KGJT 010846  
AFDGJT  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO  
246 AM MDT TUE JUL 1 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
- INCREASING MOISTURE WILL KEEP AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS IN  
THE FORECAST EACH DAY, FAVORING THE HIGHER TERRAIN INITIALLY,  
BEFORE SPREADING OVER ADJACENT VALLEYS.  
 
- MAIN THREATS WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAIN OUTFLOW WINDS  
CAPABLE OF GUSTS UPWARDS OF 50 MPH, SMALL HAIL, FREQUENT  
LIGHTNING, AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN.  
 
- TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MIDWEEK, THEN WILL  
COOL TO NEAR NORMAL VALUE INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 244 AM MDT TUE JUL 1 2025  
 
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVERHEAD, WHILE A CLOSED LOW SPINS  
OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA. THE FLOW AROUND THESE TWO FEATURES  
CONTINUES TO DRAW MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.  
THIS INCREASING MOISTURE HAS HELPED TO KEEP TEMPERATURES MILD. A  
LITTLE WAVE ROUNDING THE RIDGE HAS CONTRIBUTED TO LINGERING CLOUDS  
AND EVEN A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS AS WELL. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH  
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THAT WAVE TRACKS EAST. A FEW HOURS OF  
SUNSHINE THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS  
DEVELOPING OVER THE TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON. THE DEEPEST MOISTURE,  
AND THEREFORE HIGHEST CHANCES OF WETTING PRECIPITATION, WILL BE OVER  
THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS. IN THIS AREA, BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE  
POSSIBLE, IN ADDITION TO THE MORE WIDESPREAD THREATS OF GUSTY  
OUTFLOW WINDS, SMALL HAIL, AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. FIRE STARTS FROM  
LIGHTNING WILL BE A CONCERN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WITH THE  
EXPECTED UPTICK IN AFTERNOON CLOUDS AND CONVECTION, TEMPERATURES  
WILL RUN A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER TODAY, THOUGH STILL 3-5 DEGREES  
ABOVE NORMAL. CONVECTION WILL SLOWLY TAPER OFF TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW  
MORNING, WITH ANOTHER MILD NIGHT EXPECTED. BY TOMORROW MORNING, THE  
LOW TO OUR WEST WILL HAVE MOVED ONSHORE, NUDGING THE RIDGE SLIGHTLY  
TO THE EAST. THIS WILL DIRECT THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE PLUME MORE  
DIRECTLY INTO THE FOUR CORNERS, KEEPING MOISTURE INCREASING THROUGH  
THE DAY TOMORROW. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IN THE FLOW WILL ACT ON THIS  
MOISTURE, BRINGING AN UPTICK IN COVERAGE TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE  
MAIN THREATS WITH ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN GUSTY  
WINDS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, SMALL HAIL, AND LOCALIZED BRIEF HEAVY  
RAIN.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 244 AM MDT TUE JUL 1 2025  
 
LOW PRESSURE OVER CALIFORNIA AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF WILL  
KEEP DEEPER MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE CWA THANKS TO FLOW AROUND THESE  
TWO FEATURES. THIS IS CORROBORATED BY FORECAST NAEFS PWATS  
INDICATING VALUES OF 2 TO 2.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL EARLY  
JULY VALUES. THURSDAY, THE LOW PRESSURE THAT WAS OUT WEST WILL  
BECOME AN OPEN WAVE AND START MOVING ACROSS THE CWA. MODELS CONTINUE  
TO INDICATE THURSDAY BEING THE DAY WITH THE MOST WIDESPREAD AND  
HEAVIEST PRECIP. HIGHLY ANOMALOUS PWATS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA  
AND THE ADDED LIFT FROM THE OPEN WAVE WILL BE THE IMPETUS FOR THIS  
PRECIP. THE ONLY FLY IN THE OINTMENT WILL BE CLOUD COVER THAT MAY  
LIMIT CONVECTION. IF THIS OCCURS, WE CAN EXPECT A MORE STRATIFORM,  
SOAKING TYPE RAIN EVENT WITH SOME EMBEDDED STORMS BEING MORE LIKELY.  
STILL HAVE PLENTY OF TIME TO WORK OUT THESE FINER DETAILS.  
 
FRIDAY ONWARD, MODEL DISCREPANCIES START TO CROP UP AS DIFFERENT  
MODELS HANDLE ANOTHER APPROACHING SHORTWAVE DIFFERENTLY. IN SOME  
GUIDANCE, THIS WAVE ACTS ON LINGERING MOISTURE TO BRING ANOTHER  
ROUND OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION. IN OTHERS, THE PRECIPITATION IS  
CONFINED LARGELY ALONG THE DIVIDE. AND MODELS DO SEEM TO BE FLIP-  
FLOPPING FROM RUN TO RUN ON THIS DETAIL. THIS UNCERTAINTY LINGERS  
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME CONSENSUS THAT HIGH  
PRESSURE TRIES TO REASSERT ITSELF BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. ALL  
TOGETHER, THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND LOOKS CONTINUE COOLER AND  
UNSETTLED.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 1130 PM MDT MON JUN 30 2025  
 
AS MONSOONAL MOISTURE BEGINS TO WORK INTO THE AREA TONIGHT,  
CLOUDS WILL LINGER ALTHOUGH THEY WILL REMAIN ABOVE BREAKPOINTS.  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE TERRAIN TOMORROW  
AFTERNOON AND MOVE OUT OVER ADJACENT VALLEYS. THESE SHOWERS AND  
STORMS WILL PRODUCE GUSTY AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS AND  
LIGHTNING AS THE MAIN THREATS. ADDITIONALLY, TERRAIN DRIVEN  
AFTERNOON WINDS WILL GUST 15-25 KNOTS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE  
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  
 

 
   
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
CO...NONE.  
UT...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...BGB  
LONG TERM...TGR/BGB  
AVIATION...TGJT  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab CO Page
The Nexlab UT Page Main Text Page