649
FXUS65 KGJT 110535
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1035 PM MST TUE FEB 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MOUNTAIN SNOW ABOVE 8 KFT AND VALLEY RAIN IS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. SNOWFALL TOTALS OF 6-12 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WITH LOWER
AMOUNTS ACROSS THE SOUTH.
- IMPACTS FROM THE SNOW MAY ONLY OCCUR ON MOUNTAIN PASSES DURING
THE NIGHT TIME AND EARLY MORNING HOURS DUE TO WARM
TEMPERATURES.
- ANOTHER ROUND IS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTH,
WITH A BRIEF LULL THIS WEEKEND AND ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION
POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 932 PM MST TUE FEB 10 2026
TODAY A LOW PRESSURE MAKES LANDFALL ALONG THE WEST COAST. ALTHOUGH
THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WELL AHEAD ARRIVES IN OUR AREA THIS MORNING.
THIS WILL ALONG WITH OROGRAPHICS AND JET SUPPORT WILL RESULT IN
SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS SYSTEM
IS NOT ARCTIC IN NATURE THEREFORE SNOW LEVELS LOOK TO STAY
RELATIVELY HIGH, GENERALLY ABOVE 8-9 KFT. SHOWERS WILL PERSIST
TONIGHT AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO THE AREA UNDER THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW. THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS ARE STILL ON
TRACK TO GET 6-2 INCHES WITH THE PARK RANGE GETTING UPWARDS OF 18
INCHES BY FRIDAY MORNING. THE ONLY IMPACTS MIGHT BE LIMITED TO THE
PASSES DURING THE NIGHT TIME HOURS DUE TO THE WARM TEMPERATURES IN
THE DAY. LAPSE RATES STEEPEN ON THURSDAY AS A PIECE OF ENERGY
APPROACHES FROM THE MAIN LOW, SO THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHTNING AND
BANDING. IF ANY BANDS SETUP, HEAVIER SNOWFALL RATES MAY OCCUR.
OVERALL THERE SHOULD BE A DOWN TICK IN PRECIPITATION THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 932 PM MST TUE FEB 10 2026
LOW PRESSURE TREKS EASTWARDS THROUGH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BEGINNING
FRIDAY MORNING AND THROUGH SATURDAY. THE LOW'S CENTER IS EXPECTED TO
PASS TO OUR SOUTH AS A RESULT, PLACING US IN DRIER FLOW. SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA, AT LEAST EARLY IN THE LONG-TERM PERIOD, COULD
STILL BENEFIT FROM SOME SLIGHTLY MOISTER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. SO,
WHILE AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-70 WILL HAVE MOSTLY DRIED OUT AND
SEEN PRECIPITATION COME TO AN END ON FRIDAY, PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWESTERN COLORADO SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE SOME LIGHT, TERRAIN-
DRIVEN SHOWERS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND POTENTIALLY INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. SNOWFALL APPEARS TO FAVOR THE SOUTHERN SLOPES OF THE SAN
JUANS AS A RESULT. THE REGION'S WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL
UNFORTUNATELY KEEP ANY SNOWFALL RELATIVELY WET (SNOW-WATER RATIOS
AROUND 12:1) AND SNOW LEVELS ABOVE VALLEYS.
A LOW-AMPLITUDE RIDGE RETURNS ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER DEEP TROUGH
SETTING UP OFF THE WEST COAST. TIMING ON THE MOVEMENT OF THIS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER TOP OF US IS STILL UNCERTAIN, THOUGH IT LIKELY
WON'T BE UNTIL MID-NEXT WEEK. CURRENT FORECASTS ARE INDICATING THAT
WE SHOULD DROP TO NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS IT PASSES THOUGH,
WHICH WOULD HELP SUPPORT FLUFFIER SNOW FOR OUR MOUNTAINS. IT'S
PROMISING, YET STILL WELL OFF IN THE FUTURE, SO STAY TUNED FOR MORE
INFORMATION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 433 PM MST TUE FEB 10 2026
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MID-LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO MOVE IN FROM THE
WEST TONIGHT. LOOK FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO
INCREASE BEGINNING BETWEEN 12Z-15Z AT ALL TERMINALS. AS STORMS
PASS THROUGH, CIGS MAY DROP BELOW ILS BREAKPOINTS AND VIS COULD
REACH MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION WILL BE OF
CONCERN AS WELL. ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE
WEEK.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO NOON MST THURSDAY
FOR COZ004.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO NOON MST
THURSDAY FOR COZ009-010-012-013.
UT...NONE.
SHORT TERM...KJS
LONG TERM...BW
AVIATION...TGJT
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