666
FXUS65 KGJT 112325
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
525 PM MDT MON MAY 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HOT, DRY, AND WINDY CONDITIONS HIGHLIGHT THE FORECAST THROUGH
MID WEEK WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
TOMORROW.
- LOCALIZED CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY AND
TOMORROW. CRITICAL CONDITIONS BECOME WIDESPREAD ON WEDNESDAY,
WITH FIRE WEATHER WATCHES IN EFFECT ACCORDINGLY.
- DRY THUNDERSTORMS COULD IMPACT THE REGION WEDNESDAY, FAVORING
THE TERRAIN OF SOUTHWEST COLORADO.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1155 AM MDT MON MAY 11 2026
HOT, DRY, AND WINDY THROUGH MID WEEK:
HIGH PRESSURE WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST EARLY THIS
WEEK. THIS WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES NEARLY 20 DEGREES OVER MID-MAY
CLIMATOLOGY, INCLUDING SOME RECORD HIGHS. MONDAY'S RECORD OF 90
DEGREES AT GRAND JUNCTION HAS STOOD SINCE 1934. TUESDAY LOOKS
LIKE THE BEST BET FOR RECORDS THOUGH, AS 500MB HEIGHTS REACH
THEIR PEAK THEN.
WELL-MIXED CONDITIONS SHOULD BRING SURFACE WINDS UP EACH
AFTERNOON ON THE TERRAIN. HOT, DRY, WINDY CONDITIONS WITH
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE TEENS WILL PRODUCE LOCALIZED CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER MONDAY AND TUESDAY. AS LOW PRESSURE ADVECTS ACROSS
THE GREAT BASIN TUESDAY NIGHT, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
AND DRIVES UP WINDS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LEAD TO
WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS, SO A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH IS IN EFFECT. FURTHERMORE, SOME WEAK MOISTURE WORKS
BENEATH THE DEPARTING RIDGE ON WEDNESDAY AND AFTERNOON
INSTABILITY/OROGRAPHICS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS/STORMS. DRY BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS COULD LEAD TO DRY
LIGHTNING AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS, ESPECIALLY OVER THE SAN
JUANS.
LOOKING AHEAD:
FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES BEYOND WEDNESDAY AS MODEL SPREAD
AMPLIFIES. BLENDED GUIDANCE CURRENTLY SUPPORTS A BRIEF "COOL
DOWN" (ALTHOUGH FORECASTED TEMPERATURES REMAIN SOLIDLY ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS) AND A PREDOMINATELY DRY PATTERN WITH
PERIODIC CHANCES FOR OROGRAPHIC SHOWERS.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 519 PM MDT MON MAY 11 2026
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY OVER THE REGION. SKIES
WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR WITH A FEW HIGH CLOUDS INTERMITTENTLY
MOVING THROUGH. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND TERRAIN DRIVEN, WITH
OVERNIGHT DRAINAGE WINDS WORKING DOWN VALLEYS IN KHDN, KASE,
KTEX, AND KGJT. WINDS PICK UP AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON, WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH AROUND THE REGION. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1155 AM MDT MON MAY 11 2026
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BREAK DOWN WEDNESDAY. THIS RESULTS IN AN
UPTICK IN SURFACE WINDS ACROSS THE REGION FOLLOWING A PERIOD OF
ANOMALOUSLY WARM TEMPERATURES AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES. A
FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN
COLORADO WHERE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE IN THE UPPER SINGLE
DIGITS TO LOW TEENS, WINDS WILL BE GUSTING UP TO 35 MPH, AND
FUELS ARE DEEMED CRITICAL. THE WATCH MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED IF
THE PRECEDING CONDITIONS RESULT IN THE EXPANSION OF CRITICAL
FUELS.
SPC HAS ALSO HIGHLIGHTED PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST COLORADO AS
HAVING A 10 PERCENT CHANCE FOR DRY THUNDERSTORMS THANKS TO SOME
MOISTURE SNEAKING BENEATH THE RIDGE ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR COZ200-202-290-292.
UT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...TGJT
AVIATION...TGJT
FIRE WEATHER...TGJT
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