982
FXUS65 KGJT 252158
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
258 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES HIGHLIGHT THE THANKSGIVING DAY
FORECAST.
- OTHER THAN PERIODIC LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS, CONDITIONS REMAIN DRY THROUGH FRIDAY.
- A STRONGER WEATHER SYSTEM COULD IMPACT HOLIDAY TRAVEL ACROSS
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THIS WEEKEND WITH WINTERY CONDITIONS IN
THE MOUNTAINS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 252 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2025
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW HAS SET IN AND WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
MOSTLY DRY, SEASONABLE CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
SENSIBLE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE TOMORROW OVER THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS AS A MOIST AIRMASS SKIRTS ALONG THE COLORADO/WYOMING
BORDER. LIMITED INSTABILITY ACCOMPANIES THIS SYSTEM, BUT
OROGRAPHIC LIFT MAY BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WITH
THE SPINE OF THE PARK RANGE SEEING UP TO 1-3" OF NEW SNOWFALL.
THIS SNOWFALL IS NOT ANTICIPATED TO BE IMPACTFUL.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 252 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2025
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOOK TO BE THE MILDEST DAYS OF THE WEEK
BEFORE TEMPERATURES DROP FOR THE WEEKEND AS A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW. WE WILL SEE
SOME CLOUDS FROM TIME TO TIME BUT OVERALL, CONDITIONS APPEAR DRY
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH HIGHS 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
CONDITIONS TURN COOLER AND UNSETTLED THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH MOUNTAIN SNOW. LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE DETAILS
WHICH IS DISCUSSED BELOW, BUT EXPECT IMPACTS TO POST-
THANKSGIVING TRAVEL AT THE VERY LEAST ESPECIALLY OVER THE
MOUNTAIN PASSES.
A CLIPPER-LIKE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW
FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY, WHICH WILL BRING A ROUND OF
SNOW TO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IS PROJECTED TO DROP A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH FROM THE
NORTHWEST LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH YET ANOTHER TO FOLLOW BY
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. NOW, THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS KIND OF ALL OVER
THE PLACE IN TERMS OF THE EXACT TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THESE
SYSTEMS AND JUST HOW FAR SOUTH THE SECOND ONE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
WILL END UP, WHICH HAS A WIDE RANGE OF OUTCOMES IN TERMS OF
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS. SO UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH AND CONFIDENCE IS
LOW IN DETAILS AT THIS TIME. THE BLENDED GUIDANCE HAS REALLY
BACKED OFF ON THE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AND JUST HOW LOW THE SNOW
LEVELS WILL FALL WHICH IMPACTS HOW MUCH IF ANY THE VALLEYS WILL
SEE. THE ONE THING WE CAN SAY IS THAT THE WEATHER TURNS COOLER
AND UNSETTLED THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL
AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME VALLEYS TO SEE RAIN, A MIX OR SNOW...BUT
HOW MUCH IS THE FLY IN THE OINTMENT. THIS WOULD HAVE SOME
IMPACTS ON POST-THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY TRAVEL SO IF YOU HAPPEN TO
BE TRAVELING THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK, BE PREPARED FOR WINTER
DRIVING CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY OVER THE PASSES. STAY UP TO DATE
ON THE LATEST FORECAST AS DETAILS COME INTO GREATER FOCUS, BUT
WE STILL ARE 5 TO 6 DAYS OUT SO A LOT CAN CHANGE UNTIL THEN.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1037 AM MST TUE NOV 25 2025
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT OF LOW CEILINGS IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON,
ALTHOUGH THE TIMING AT WHICH THOSE CLOUDS SCATTER OUT IS A
LITTLE LESS CERTAIN. ELSEWHERE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH
STRONGER WINDS THAN WE'VE SEEN OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS.
PREVAILING WINDS UP TO 10-15 KNOTS ARE LIKELY WITH SOME SITES
GUSTING UP TO 20-25 KNOTS PERIODICALLY THIS AFTERNOON.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
SHORT TERM...KAA
LONG TERM...MDA
AVIATION...TGJT
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