186
FXUS65 KGJT 041201
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
601 AM MDT SUN JUN 4 2023
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM MDT SUN JUN 4 2023
A ROGUE STORM POPPED UP OVER VERNAL LATE LAST NIGHT, DROPPING
0.5 INCHES IN ABOUT 20 MINUTES. ACTIVITY SINCE THAT POINT IN TIME
HAS LARGELY DIMINISHED WITH SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND BROKEN
CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS THE NORTHERN DIVIDE ACROSS NORTHWEST
COLORADO FROM THE FRONT RANGE. SHOULD SEE MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY
WANE BY SUNRISE WITH CLEARING SKIES TO OUR WEST AND SOUTHWEST AND
CLOUD COVER REMAINING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF OUR CWA.
LAST EVENING'S GJT SOUNDING SHOWED A NOTABLE DECREASE IN PWAT FROM
0.65 TO 0.54 INCHES SINCE YESTERDAY MORNING. THIS WAS EVIDENT WITH
THE STORM ACTIVITY BEING FAIRLY SHORT LIVED AND WEAKENING AS
STORMS DRIFTED OFF THE HIGH TERRAIN. EXPECT MORE OF THE SAME TODAY
WITH STORMS FIRING OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN, MAINLY WESTERN COLORADO
AND EASTERN UINTAS AND STAYING FAIRLY ANCHORED GIVEN THE WEAK
STEERING WINDS ALOFT AND LACK OF FORCING AS A DEFORMATION AREA HAS
ESSENTIALLY FORMED OVER OUR CWA. WE ARE IN THE MIDDLE OF A CUT OFF
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NORTHWEST UTAH, A SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER
WESTERN COLORADO, A REMNANT LOW CIRCULATION OVER SOUTHEAST
COLORADO AND THE RESULTANT MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER NORTHEAST
COLORADO. SO STORMS WILL FAVOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH STORMS
WEAKENING AS THEY DRIFT OFF THE TERRAIN INTO THE VALLEYS BELOW.
THERE IS LIMITED FORCING AND NOT ENOUGH SHEAR TO HELP SUSTAIN
ACTIVITY. COULD SEE SOME BRIEF HEAVY RAIN IN SOME STORMS AND GUSTY
WINDS MAYBE TO 30 MPH BUT NOTHING THAT STRONG. STORMS SHOULD
DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET WITH SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT.
BY MONDAY, THE NORTHERN UTAH LOW WILL GET PUSHED NORTHWARD INTO
IDAHO AS A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ONTO THE SOCAL COAST.
THIS LOW WILL EXERT ITS INFLUENCE OVER OUR AREA AS THE FLOW SHIFTS
TO SOUTHWEST. THIS IN TURN SHOULD BRING A SUBTLE INCREASE IN
MOISTURE ALOFT, MORE EVIDENT WHEN LOOKING AT PWAT ANOMALIES RATHER
THAN STRAIGHT UP PWAT VALUES. SO, STORM COVERAGE LOOKS TO
INCREASE ON MONDAY COMPARED TO TODAY WITH BETTER CHANCE OF STORMS
SUSTAINING WHEN DRIFTING OFF THE TERRAIN. ALSO BETTER CHANCE OF
WETTING RAIN VERSUS GUSTY WINDS. GIVEN THE DRIER AIR TODAY AND
SOUTHWEST FLOW ON MONDAY, SOME WAA WILL BE TAKING PLACE, ALLOWING
OUR HIGH TEMPERATURES TO RISE BACK UP CLOSER TO NORMAL.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM MDT SUN JUN 4 2023
AN OMEGA BLOCK WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE CONUS AT THE START OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD AS A DEEP LOW REMAINS OFF THE MASSACHUSETTS COAST,
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER SOUTHERN CANADA AND ANOTHER DEEP LOW
REMAINS JUST OFF THE SOCAL COAST. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE SOCAL LOW
WILL TAP INTO SOME MOISTURE DOWN SOUTH AND STREAM IT INTO THE AREA
BUT NOTHING 'TOO' EXCESSIVE WITH FORECAST PWATS REACHING AROUND .60
INCHES WHICH IS ABOVE OUR AVERAGE OF .50 INCHES. DAYTIME HEATING
ALONG WITH SOME MINOR DISTURBANCES WILL ALLOW ANOTHER DAY OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO FIRE OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN BEFORE DRIFTING
INTO ADJACENT VALLEYS ON TUESDAY. EXPECT MORE OF THE SAME ON
WEDNESDAY BUT AS THE SOCAL LOW FINALLY GETS MOVING, A PUSH OF
DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED FROM THE AFTERNOON ONWARDS. WE CAN EXPECT
ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION WEDNESDAY BUT AS THE DRY AIR MOVES IN,
THIS CONVECTION SHOULD START TO WANE, AT LEAST FOR THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION AND CENTRAL TO SOUTHEAST UTAH. ELSEWHERE, ENOUGH
MOISTURE AIDED BY A SHORTWAVE WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND STORMS GOING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. THANKS TO THE DRIER
AIR, LOOK FOR A DOWNTURN OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THURSDAY AND A
BUMP IN HIGH TEMPS.
MODEL DISCREPANCIES POP UP ON FRIDAY AND CONTINUE HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND. THE GENERAL SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS CAPTURED FAIRLY WELL BUT
THE FINER DETAILS JUST AREN'T THERE YET. WHILE CHANCES CERTAINLY
EXIST FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION, IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN
EXACTLY WHERE AND/OR WHEN. PLENTY OF TIME TO WORK OUT THOSE
DETAILS THOUGH.
THOSE CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL LIMIT HIGHS AT THE START OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. HOWEVER, THEY WILL INCREASE TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK
REACHING SEASONAL VALUES, IF NOT A BIT ABOVE.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 600 AM MDT SUN JUN 4 2023
CLEAR SKIES WILL BE SEEN THIS MORNING ACROSS EASTERN UTAH AND
WEST-CENTRAL TO SOUTHWEST COLORADO WITH SCT TO BKN SKIES ACROSS
NORTHWEST COLORADO AND PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CORRIDOR.
KHDN, KEGE AND KASE STAND THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING THESE LOWER
CIGS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS
AFTERNOON WITH KTEX, KASE, KEGE AND KHDN SEEING THE BEST CHANCE OF
CUMULUS BUILDUPS AND VCTS AT SOME POINT. ANY STORM ACTIVITY WILL
WEAKEN AS IT DRIFTS OFF THE TERRAIN WITH NOT MUCH SUSTAINABILITY
OR MOVEMENT. COULD SEE BRIEF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WITH ANY STORM
AND GUSTY WINDS UP TO 30 MPH. MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE THIS
EVENING. OVERALL, EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH BRIEF MVFR IN ANY
SHOWERS/STORMS DUE TO LOWER CIGS AND VSBY.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 327 AM MDT SUN JUN 4 2023
SNOWMELT RATES HAVE SLOWED DOWN DUE TO COOLER TEMPERATURES OVER
THE LAST FEW DAYS. AS A RESULT, MOST MAIN STEMS AND TRIBUTARIES
FOLLOW IN LINE, WITH A DOWNWARD TICK IN WATER LEVELS AND FORECAST
FLOWS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. LOWER BASINS WITH SNOW BELOW 11,000
FEET COULD CONTINUE TO SEE RISING RIVER AND STREAM FLOWS. THE
GRAND MESA IN PARTICULAR, CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY MELT ITS SNOWPACK,
CAPTURED BY THE FILLED LAKES AND RESERVOIRS ATOP THE MESA AND
STRONG FLOWS DRAINING BELOW. THUS, SOME DRAINAGES HERE (I.E.
SURFACE CREEK AND PLATEAU CREEK) ARE STILL AT RISK OF EXCEEDING
BANKFULL CONDITIONS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND STORM COVERAGE
INCREASES EARLY TO MID WEEK AS SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE RETURNS FROM
THE SOUTH, YET TEMPERATURES RETURN TO NORMAL BY MONDAY. ANTICIPATE
SPRING RUNOFF TO RAMP BACK UP AGAIN AS TEMPERATURES WARM AND MORE
PRECIPITATION FALLS OVER THE COMING WEEK.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
SHORT TERM...MDA
LONG TERM...TGR
AVIATION...MDA
HYDROLOGY...TGJT
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