791  
FXUS65 KGJT 052100  
AFDGJT  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO  
300 PM MDT SAT JUL 5 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
- TEMPERATURES WARM TO 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY,  
REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.  
 
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE HARD TO COME BY THIS WEEK EXCEPT  
FOR ISOLATED AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
 
 
ISSUED AT 248 PM MDT SAT JUL 5 2025  
 
WARM AND DRY AIR CONTINUES TO FUNNEL INTO THE REGION TO CLOSE  
OUT THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE POSITIONED OVERHEAD.  
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN  
AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON (20% CHANCE). GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND  
SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE NEAR STRONGER STORMS. ELSEWHERE, DRY  
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 20-25 MPH MIXING  
DOWN DURING THE AFTERNOON.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 248 PM MDT SAT JUL 5 2025  
 
HIGH PRESSURE RISES NORTHWARDS THROUGH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST ON  
MONDAY, STALLING OUT THE CLOSED LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST.  
THIS PROLONGS OUR RESIDENCE UNDER THIS DRIER PATTERN, AND MOST  
OF THE REGION SHOULD EXPECT SCATTERED CLOUD COVER AND ISOLATED  
SHOWERS CONFINED TO THE HIGH TERRAIN AT MOST. DETERMINISTIC  
MODELS ARE RESOLVING A SHORTWAVE DEVELOPING OFF THE LEE OF THE  
ROCKIES MONDAY AFTERNOON THOUGH, POSITIVELY TILTED INTO THE FAR  
SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF OUR CWA. THIS LITTLE BIT OF SUPPORT PAIRS  
WITH A MILD POCKET OF MOISTURE BEING PULLED THROUGH THE  
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS ARIZONA AND INTO OUR SOUTHERN CWA,  
THUS BOOSTING POP'S TO 30-45% ACROSS THE SAN JUANS. IT'S STILL A  
RELATIVELY MODEST POTENTIAL FOR RAINFALL, BUT IT'S LIKELY THAT  
THIS IS WHERE WE WILL SEE THE BULK OF ACTIVITY ON MONDAY. THINGS  
ONLY GET DRIER FROM HERE THOUGH AS THE HIGH PRESSURE TRANSITS  
FURTHER TO THE NORTH, SETTING UP NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS. AS A  
RESULT, PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL  
RELY ON WHATEVER LINGERING MOISTURE MAY STILL BE TRAPPED WEST OF  
THE ROCKIES, AND THERE'S NOT MUCH TO TAP INTO, WITH PWAT'S  
65-80% OF NORMAL. EXPECT LITTLE MORE THAN SPARSE, ISOLATED  
SHOWERS ALONG MOUNTAIN RANGES. TO ADD, THINGS WILL BE WARMING UP  
UNDER THIS PATTERN AS WELL, PLACING THE REGION 5-10 DEGREES  
ABOVE NORMAL. THIS WOULD MEAN MANY LOWER VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL  
REACH TRIPLE DIGIT HIGHS THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.  
 
BY THURSDAY, THE CALIFORNIA LOW WILL HAVE SHIFTED POLEWARDS  
ENOUGH TO SKIRT NORTH OF THE BLOCKING HIGH. AS A RESULT THOUGH,  
THE SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW GETS FLATTENED BETWEEN  
THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER TO OUR SOUTH AND NEAR-ZONAL FLOW TO OUR  
NORTH. THIS DAMPENS UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT BY THE TIME IT ARRIVES  
LATE THURSDAY OR EARLY FRIDAY. CONSEQUENTLY, POP'S ARE LOW LATE  
IN THE WEEK, THOUGH SOME OROGRAPHICALLY-DRIVEN STORMS ACROSS THE  
NORTH CANNOT BE RULED OUT. AS OF NOW THOUGH, IT'S NOT LOOKING  
PROMISING FOR MUCH PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 1125 AM MDT SAT JUL 5 2025  
 
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS ARE  
CALM AS OF NOW, BUT ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME BREEZY THIS  
AFTERNOON. GUSTS OF 18-24 KTS ARE POSSIBLE. VFR CONDITIONS WILL  
PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  
 

 
   
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
CO...NONE.  
UT...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...KAA  
LONG TERM...BW  
AVIATION...TGJT  
 
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