388  
FXUS65 KGJT 231728  
AFDGJT  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO  
1128 AM MDT TUE APR 23 2024  
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
- MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY CONDITIONS THE NEXT  
FEW AFTERNOONS WITH ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.  
 
- UNSETTLED AND COOLER CONDITIONS ARRIVE THURSDAY ONWARD, WITH  
PRECIPITATION CHANCES BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD BY THE WEEKEND,  
AS A SERIES OF STORMS MOVE THROUGH.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 314 AM MDT TUE APR 23 2024  
 
THE RADAR IS LOOKING FAIRLY ACTIVE AS EXPECTED WITH ELEVATED  
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WORKING THROUGH THE CONFLUENT FLOW  
ALOFT. MOST OF THIS HAS BEEN VIRGA WITH AN OCCASIONAL SPRINKLE  
MAKING IT TO THE GROUND AS IT FALLS THROUGH THE INVERTED V  
PROFILE. PVU PLOTS AREN'T MUCH HELP PICKING OUT A DISTINCT WAVE  
HELPING LIFT BUT RATHER THE PASSING JET ALOFT IS MOST LIKELY HELPING  
TO RELEASE INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE THE SHOWERS. IVT AND PWAT  
ANOMALY SHOWS THE MOISTURE PLUME LIFTING TO THE WYOMING BORDER  
THROUGH THE DAY AS THE SOUTHERN STREAM RIDGE BUILDS IN BEHIND  
THE RETREATING NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE NORTHERN  
PLAINS. THIS WILL KEEP SOME THREAT OF CONVECTION REDEVELOPING  
ACROSS THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON. MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WILL  
BE MORE PROBABLE OVER THE TERRAIN AS THIS WARM AND HIGHLY MIXED  
ATMOSPHERE IS MORE LIKELY TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS IN THE LOWER  
ELEVATION. TEMPERATURES REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL AND NOT SURE I  
AM LIKING THE FACT WE ARE TYING RECORDS SET IN THE DROUGHT YEAR  
OF 2012 WHICH IS AGAIN THE YEAR OF RECORD FOR TODAY AT GRAND  
JUNCTION AT 89. WE SHOULDN'T HIT THAT BUT WE WILL AGAIN SEE  
PLENTY OF SUN AND MIXING AND WE SHOULD START THE DAY OFF QUITE A  
BIT WARMER. THE THIN MOISTURE ANOMALY GETS PUSHED FARTHER NORTH  
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES WITH THE  
NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING THE SOCAL COAST LATE IN THE DAY.  
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 10 TO 15 DEGREE ABOVE NORMAL  
GOING INTO MIDWEEK WITH SOME RELIEF COMING BEYOND. HOT...DRY AND  
WINDY CONDITIONS THE NEXT FEW AFTERNOONS WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP  
ELEVATED FIRE CONCERNS IN PLACE. IF FUELS WERE AVAILABLE  
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WOULD DEVELOP...OUTDOOR BURNING  
IS NOT RECOMMENDED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 314 AM MDT TUE APR 23 2024  
 
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON THE NOSE OF A JET STREAK  
WORKING NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE FOUR CORNERS BY WEDNESDAY  
EVENING. MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE BY THURSDAY WITH  
SOME SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY TURNING UP THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  
THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND, INCLUDING MORE  
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION CHANCES. UNSETTLED WEATHER COMES FROM A  
SERIES OF SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES COMING ASHORE IN THE PACNW AND  
PINWHEELING AROUND BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ANCHORED OVER CANADA.  
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND BEYOND WILL SWING BACK TO THE COOL  
SIDE OF CLIMATOLOGY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS AROUND 10 DEGREES UNDER  
LATE APRIL EXPECTATIONS. THIS SHOULD COME AS NO SURPRISE, GIVEN  
THE CLOUDY AND WET PATTERN THAT WORKS THROUGH THE AREA LATE  
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. MULTIPLE PULSES OF COOLER AIR BEHIND  
EACH SUCCESSIVE WAVE WILL KEEP SOME SNOW SHOWERS IN OUR MOUNTAIN  
FORECASTS THIS WEEKEND. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING  
WILL KEEP NET ACCUMULATIONS PRETTY MEAGER, BUT A FEW OVERNIGHT  
SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY, FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL LIKELY FIND AN  
OPPORTUNITY TO ACCUMULATE ON COLDER SURFACES BEFORE DAYBREAK.  
MODELS NOSE A TRANSITORY RIDGE IN SUNDAY THAT WILL DRY OUT MOST  
OF THE WEST SLOPE AND START ANOTHER WARM UP, BUT DOES INCLUDE  
SOME SHOWERS ON THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN THE UNSTABLE,  
POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT. DETERMINISTIC MODEL SPAGHETTI PLOTS  
DRY THINGS OUT MONDAY WITH BROAD RIDGING AND RETURN SEASONAL  
TEMPERATURES BACK TO THE MIX.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 1117 AM MDT TUE APR 23 2024  
 
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL  
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND DECREASE AFTER SUNSET. ISOLATED  
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AROUND KHDN AND PERHAPS KEGE.  
 

 
   
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
CO...NONE.  
UT...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...15  
LONG TERM...LTB  
AVIATION...TGJT  
 
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