026  
FXUS65 KGJT 141724  
AFDGJT  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO  
1124 AM MDT SUN JUL 14 2024  
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
- THE DESERT VALLEYS OF EASTERN UTAH AND THE GRAND VALLEY IN  
WESTERN COLORADO REMAINS HOT TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES WELL  
ABOVE NORMAL. HEAT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN PLACE.  
 
- AN UPTICK IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON WILL LEAD  
TO AN ELEVATED RISK OF FIRE STARTS. A RED FLAG WARNING HAS  
BEEN ISSUED FOR LOCATIONS FORECAST TO SEE THE HIGHEST STORM  
COVERAGE.  
 
- TEMPERATURES REMAIN SEASONABLY WARM WITH DAILY THUNDERSTORM  
CHANCES THROUGH THE SEVEN DAY FORECAST.  
 

 
   
UPDATE
 
 
ISSUED AT 1010 AM MDT SUN JUL 14 2024  
 
BASED ON LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE AND EXPECTED COVERAGE AREA OF DRY  
THUNDERSTORMS, DECIDED TO ADD UT487 AND CO290 TO THE RED FLAG  
WARNING FOR DRY THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. THE REMAINING AREAS,  
COVERAGE REMAINS ISOLATED SO DID NOT INCLUDE THEM IN THE RED  
FLAG WARNING (NEED AT LEAST WIDELY SCATTERED).  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 403 AM MDT SUN JUL 14 2024  
 
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWED THE HIGH  
PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR THE RECENT STRETCH OF  
UNSEASONABLY WARM, DRY CONDITIONS WAS LOCATED NEAR THE CENTRAL  
COLORADO/NEW MEXICO BORDER. INCREASING MOISTURE WAS ALSO APPARENT  
ACROSS EASTERN UTAH INTO WESTERN COLORADO. HI-RES GUIDANCE SHOWS  
THAT PWAT VALUES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE TO 0.75-1" BY EARLY THIS  
AFTERNOON PROVIDING THE FIRST PUSH OF MOSITURE INTO THE REGION IN  
AWHILE. DESPITE MORE CLOUD COVER TODAY, TEMPERATURES ARE STILL  
FORECAST TO BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN SEASONAL NORMALS. A HEAT  
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER VALLEYS UNTIL 9 PM THIS  
EVENING. TEMPERATURES COOL SLIGHTLY TO KICK OFF THE NEW WORK WEEK ON  
MONDAY, BUT SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL STILL BE FLIRTING WITH TRIPLE-  
DIGIT HIGHS.  
 
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL ALSO INCREASE THIS  
AFTERNOON WITH RENEWED MOISTURE PRESENT. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT  
PRECIPITATION WILL BE FIGHTING A VERY DRY NEAR-SURFACE LAYER ACROSS  
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS MEANS THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL  
IS ON THE LOWER SIDE, BUT CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR GUSTY  
OUTFLOW WINDS UP TO 50 MPH. FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL ALSO POSE AN  
ELEVATED THREAT FOR FIRE STARTS GIVEN THE VERY DRY ANTECEDENT  
CONDITIONS. SENSIBLE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE SOMEWHAT OF A RINSE  
AND REPEAT ON MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS ROTATING  
AROUND THE HIGH OVERHEAD.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 403 AM MDT SUN JUL 14 2024  
 
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA SOMEWHERE  
OVER THE CENTRAL BORDER BETWEEN NEW MEXICO AND ARIZONA MONDAY NIGHT  
WHERE IT WILL REMAIN ON TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE  
LEVELS APPEARED LARGELY UNCHANGED IN MODEL DATA, SO DIURNAL  
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ON TUESDAY SHOULD BE SIMILARLY TO MONDAY'S  
ACTIVITY. POSITIONING OF THE HIGH BRINGS MODEST DRYING IN WESTERLY  
FLOW ALOFT FOR WEDNESDAY RESULTING IN REDUCED MOIST CONVECTION OVER  
EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERNMOST COLORADO, WHILE THE MOUNTAINS OF THE  
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE REMAIN ACTIVE. THE DOWNTURN IN ACTIVITY WILL BE  
SHORT LIVED AS MOISTURE POOLED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IS WRAPPED  
BACK INTO THE REGION BY THURSDAY WHICH IS THEN RECYCLED OVER THE  
AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE HIGH SLOWLY SHIFTS WEST.  
MOISTURE LEVELS STAY BELOW 150% OF NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD, SO  
EXPECT EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL BE LOCALIZED. DESPITE, THE PERSISTENT  
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY, TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN  
ABOVE NORMAL, THOUGH AREN'T LIKELY TO BE AS HOT AS THEY HAVE BEEN  
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 1120 AM MDT SUN JUL 14 2024  
 
EXPECT AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS NEAR MOUNTAIN TAFS THIS  
AFTERNOON, WITH VCTS MOST LIKELY FOR KTEX, KGUC, KASE, AND  
KEGE. MINIMAL RAIN IS ANTICIPATED WITH SAID STORMS, THUS,  
LIGHTNING AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS ARE THE MAIN IMPACTS TO NEARBY  
TERMINALS. ELSEWHERE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT  
24 HOURS WITH PASSING MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.  
 

 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
 
ISSUED AT 1010 AM MDT SUN JUL 14 2024  
 
THE MIX OF DRY FUELS, A DRY AIRMASS NEAR THE SURFACE, AND  
AN UPTURN IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL  
LEAD TO AN ELEVATED THREAT FOR DRY THUNDERSTORM FIRE STARTS THIS  
AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT, A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR  
LOCATIONS MOST SUSCEPTIBLE AND WHERE THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS AT  
LEAST WIDELY SCATTERED. HOWEVER, ANY LIGHTNING STRIKE COULD  
LEAD TO FIRE STARTS. WHILE ENVIRONMENTAL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO  
BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD, GUSTY  
OUTFLOW WINDS UP TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE NEAR SHOWERS AND STORMS.  
 

 
   
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
CO...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ201-205-  
290>293.  
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ006.  
UT...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR UTZ485>487-  
491.  
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR UTZ024-027-029.  
 

 
 

 
 
UPDATE...MDA  
SHORT TERM...KAA  
LONG TERM...NL  
AVIATION...TGJT  
FIRE WEATHER...KAA  
 
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