649  
FXUS65 KGJT 202349  
AFDGJT  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO  
549 PM MDT SAT JUL 20 2019  
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 306 PM MDT SAT JUL 20 2019  
 
A WEAK SHORTWAVE, THAT BROUGHT SOME EARLY MORNING THUNDER TO THE  
REGION, CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS COLORADO AT THIS HOUR BRINGING  
MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE SAN JUANS AND AREAS ALONG THE  
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. A FEW STRAY RETURNS ARE SHOWING UP FOR THE  
GRAND MESA AND MOFFAT COUNTY SO BUMPED UP POPS A BIT TO ACCOUNT  
FOR THIS. LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS CONVECTION  
AND BUMP UP POPS, IF APPROPRIATE. THE NAMNEST AND HRRR ARE BOTH  
HANDLING THIS CONVECTION FAIRLY WELL AND HAVE ALL SHOWERS AND  
STORMS ENDING BY 8PM. AS PEAK HEATING ENDS, AND THE UPPER LEVEL  
SUPPORT SHIFTS TO THE FRONT RANGE, IT FOLLOWS THAT CONVECTION WILL  
DIE SO FORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NORTHERLY,  
FOR THE MOST PART, WHICH WILL USHER IN SOME DRIER, AND COOLER,  
AIR.  
 
A DRIER DAY IS IN THE FORECAST ON SUNDAY AS PWATS LOWER. LIGHT  
WESTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED ALOFT WITH LIGHT WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW  
AT THE SURFACE. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM CAN NOT BE COMPLETELY  
RULED OUT ALONG THE DIVIDE GIVEN A BIT OF REMAINING INSTABILITY TO  
THE EAST, HOWEVER ANY SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY BEFORE SUNSET.  
EXPECT SIMILAR HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE WESTERN SLOPE ON  
SUNDAY AS WERE SEEN ON SATURDAY.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)  
ISSUED AT 306 PM MDT SAT JUL 20 2019  
 
A LARGE AMPLITUDE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER OUR  
CWA MONDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. SUBSIDENCE ALOFT  
WILL CAP MOST CONVECTION AS WELL AS DECREASED MOISTURE THOUGH A  
STRAY SHOWER OR STORM MAY BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE HIGHEST PEAKS OF  
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WHILE WE REMAIN  
MOSTLY DRY, MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A STREAM OF MOISTURE  
MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH BUT ONLY REACHING ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO  
THROUGH MIDWEEK. WEDNESDAY ONWARDS, THIS MOISTURE LOOKS TO GET  
ENTRAINED IN THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND AS A WEAK WAVE DRIFTS  
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER STATES, THIS MOISTURE FINALLY MOVES INTO  
OUR AREA. MID TO LONG TERM MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT  
SHOWING AN UPTICK IN CONVECTION AND RAINFALL WEDNESDAY THROUGH  
SATURDAY. WHILE THE MOISTURE TAP ISN'T AS APPARENT, SOME HINTS OF  
IT REMAIN. EXPECTING MOST OF THE CONVECTION TO BE RECYCLED  
MOISTURE FROM THE INITIAL PUSH. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT FAIRLY  
WARM AND FROM MIDWEEK ONWARDS, INCREASED CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL  
DROP DAYTIME HIGHS A FEW DEGREES.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)  
ISSUED AT 541 PM MDT SAT JUL 20 2019  
 
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH IN INTENSITY THROUGH THE  
EVENING IN NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COLORADO. HDN, EGE, RIL AND  
POSSIBLY ASE MAY SEE A FEW MORE BRIEF BOUTS OF RAIN WITH SOME  
THUNDER BEFORE THINGS DIE DOWN AROUND SUNSET. CIG AND VIS WILL  
REMAIN VFR, HOWEVER AN ISOLATED HEAVIER STORM COULD BRIEFLY  
REDUCE HDN AND EGE TO MVFR OR BREAK ILS CIG THRESHOLDS. EXPECT  
CLEARING OVERNIGHT WITH VFR AT AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGHOUT THE DAY  
ON SUNDAY.  
 

 
   
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
CO...NONE.  
UT...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...TGR/MAC  
LONG TERM...TGR  
AVIATION...MAC  
 
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