530
FXUS65 KGJT 010553
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1153 PM MDT TUE MAR 31 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- AN INCOMING PATTERN SHIFT BRINGS COOLER TEMPERATURES, VALLEY
RAIN, AND MOUNTAIN SNOW ABOVE 9000 FEET THROUGH TOMORROW
EVENING.
- WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM 6PM TODAY
THROUGH 9PM WEDNESDAY FOR MOST MAJOR MOUNTAIN GROUPS ON THE
WEST SLOPE. FREEZE WATCHES FOR SOUTHERN VALLEYS TOMORROW
NIGHT.
- ADDITIONAL MEASURABLE SNOW EXPECTED FOR THE MOUNTAINS ON
FRIDAY, WITH A WARMER, DRIER TREND THIS WEEKEND AND BEYOND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1032 PM MDT TUE MAR 31 2026
GOES ALPW IS SHOWING A STRONG TAP OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST AND DIRECTED AT THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THIS EVENING. THE
LATEST GJT SOUNDING INDICATED THIS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE
MAINLY ELEVATED ABOVE 500MB WITH THE PERSISTENT INVERTED V
PROFILE STILL IN PLACE. THIS EXPLAINS THE 45 TO 50 MPH GUSTS
FROM VIRGA/SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER THIS
VIRGA IS LIKELY CONTINUING THE TOP DOWN SATURATION PROCESS
BEFORE THE STRONGER ASCENT ARRIVES LATER TONIGHT. NO MATTER
WHAT YOU LOOK AT...INTEGRATED MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS...PWAT
ANOMALY...M-CLIMATE QPF...PWAT RETURN INTERVALS...THIS IS AS
GOOD OF MOISTURE TAP AS WE HAVE SEEN IN A LONG TIME. IF THIS WAS
TRULY WINTER SEASON THIS WOULD HAVE BOOSTED THE SWE PROFILE
UPWARD. NOT SO SAY THIS STORM WON'T PRODUCE SOME IMPRESSIVE SNOW
TOTALS...IT WILL JUST BE LIMITED TO THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS DUE
TO LIMITED COLD AIR AND LOW SLR...MORE SIERRA CEMENT. VARIOUS
ENSEMBLES ARE SHOWING QPF AMOUNTS IN THE 1.5 TO 2.0 INCH RANGE
OVER SOME OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH THIS STORM AND AS MUCH AS
I HAVE BEEN WANTING TO BRUSH THOSE NUMBERS ASIDE...THEY ARE
LOOKING MORE LIKELY THAN NOT. WHY? STRONG SW TO W OROGRAPHICS AS
THIS TROUGH APPROACHES AND SWINGS THROUGH...MODERATE QG FORCING
OVERHEAD WITH SAID TROUGH AND A COMBINATION OF MESOSCALE
FORCING AND CONVECTION. A MORE ORGANIZED BAND OF PRECIPITATION
ARCING FROM SOUTHEAST UTAH INTO WEST-CENTRAL COLORADO ASSOCIATED
WITH JET- FORCED FRONTOGENESIS LOOKS TO BE ONE REASON THE QPF
BULLSEYES OVER THE UNC-GRAND MESA-WEST ELKS AREA. FAVORABLE
OROGRAPHICS ANOTHER REASON...WHICH WILL ALSO FAVOR THE FERTILE
CRESCENT OF THE SAN JUANS. SO OVERALL THIS WILL BE A WELCOME
STORM FOR ALL EVEN WITH THE WINTERY IMPACTS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW
THROUGH THE MOUNTAIN CORRIDORS WHEN SNOW HAS THE BEST CHANCE OF
ACCUMULATING ON ROAD SURFACES. AS THE PV LOBE CUTS IN BY MID-
DAY WE GO FULL CONVECTIVE AND THOUGH PRECIPITATION RATES IN SOME
AREAS WILL BE ROBUST...THE WARMER TEMPS AND FILTERED SUNSHINE
IS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE ROAD CONDITIONS. SO EVEN WITH SOME
IMPRESSIVE SNOW AMOUNTS (15+ INCHES) STILL CONTENT WITH THE
WINTER ADVISORIES FOR EXPECTED IMPACTS. THE TROUGH AXIS SWINGS
ACROSS THE DIVIDE TOMORROW EVENING KEEPING SOME COOL AIR
ADVECTION/OROGRAPHIC SHOWERS OVER OUR EASTERN TERRAIN THROUGH
SUNRISE. WE GET A SHORT BREAK THURSDAY BEFORE THE NEXT
TROUGH...A COLDER SYSTEM...MOVES THROUGH LATE THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. WILL CONTINUE WATCH TRENDS WITH THIS SYSTEM AND TACKLE
IT AFTER THIS BIGGER EVENT ENDS.
FREEZING TEMPERATURES WHERE SIGNIFICANT GROWING DEGREE DAYS
HAVE PUSHED PLANTS OUT OF DORMANCY WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY
MORNING ALONG THE SOUTHERN COLORADO VALLEYS. COLDER AIR MOVING
IN LATE THURSDAY WILL EXPAND THE FREEZE THREAT TO OTHER VALLEYS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE FRUIT GROWING AREAS OF THE GRAND VALLEY
AND NORTH FORK VALLEY HAVE AT LEAST A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF
SEEING TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW FREEZING FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
MORNINGS. STAY TUNED FOR ADDITIONAL FREEZE WATCHES AND/OR
WARNINGS AS CONFIDENCE INCREASES.
SPRING RETURNS
TEMPERATURES REBOUND ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEKEND, AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN. MODELS KEEP THINGS ON THE PROGRESSIVE
SIDE, LIKELY SENDING A FEW CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION, BUT LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION AT THE MOMENT. TEMPERATURES CLIMB
BACK UP AROUND 10 DEGREES OVER NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1144 PM MDT TUE MAR 31 2026
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS ONGOING ACROSS THE REGION. THIS IS
MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN RIGHT NOW, BUT TONIGHT AND THIS
MORNING A TRANSITION TO A RAIN AND SNOW MIX, OR JUST SNOW, IS
POSSIBLE IN HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE DAY, GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING AFTER 00Z. THIS WILL CAUSE MVFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS,
AND DROPS BELOW ILS BREAKPOINTS. STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED
AT MOST TAF SITES, ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AS WELL.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR COZ004-
009-010-012-013-018-019.
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING FOR COZ021>023.
UT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...TGJT
AVIATION...TGJT
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