091
FXUS65 KGJT 301123
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
423 AM MST FRI JAN 30 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- EXPECT LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE PARK AND GORE RANGES
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT.
- WARMING DAYS, COOL NIGHTS WITH DRY WEATHER PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND MOST OF NEXT WEEK FOR MOST OF THE REGION.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 116 AM MST FRI JAN 30 2026
NORTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW REMAINS POSITIONED OVERHEAD ON
THE BACKSIDE OF A BROAD EASTERN CONUS TROUGH. ONE TRANSIENT WAVE
EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS FLOW IS CURRENTLY TRANSITING ACROSS OUR
CWA, BRINGING LIGHT SNOWFALL TO THE PARK RANGE AGAIN. MOISTURE
IS WEAK AT THE MOMENT THOUGH, AND WITHOUT ANY NOTABLE FORCING,
WE'RE LOOKING AT LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT. A SECOND
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ARRIVES TOMORROW MORNING, ACCOMPANIED BY
MUCH MORE NOTABLE MOISTURE. ENSEMBLE PWAT'S PEAK AT 160-190% OF
NORMAL ACROSS OUR NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. THOUGH THE NBM PROBABILITY
OF MEASURABLE SNOWFALL IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER WITH TOMORROW
MORNING'S WAVE, THE CONTINUED LACK OF FORCING KEEPS 1+" OF SNOW
CHANCES BELOW 20%. ASIDE FROM THESE UNIMPRESSIVE PERIODS OF
SNOWFALL ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA, THE REST OF THE REGION WILL
SEE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 116 AM MST FRI JAN 30 2026
AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR MUCH OF THIS WINTER, EASTERN UTAH AND
WESTERN COLORADO WILL BE UNDER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW, SANDWICHED
BETWEEN A RIDGE TO THE WEST AND A TROUGH TO THE EAST. PASSING
WAVES IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING PERIODS OF INCREASED CLOUDS
AND SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NORTHERN, AND PERHAPS CENTRAL,
DIVIDE MOUNTAINS. MODELS ARE GROWING INCREASINGLY CONFIDENT THAT
A REX BLOCK WILL SET UP OVER THE WEST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK,
WITH A LOW OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA, AND A HIGH CENTERED OVER
NEVADA. THIS WOULD KEEP US SUNNY AND DRY, DEFLECTING ANY
POTENTIAL SYSTEMS TO OUR NORTH AND EAST. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD, WITH TEMPERATURES
STARTING OUT NEAR NORMAL AND CLIMBING TO 5- 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 419 AM MST FRI JAN 30 2026
LOW STRATUS IS LEAVING CIGS BELOW ILS BREAKPOINTS AT KASE AND
KEGE TONIGHT. LOOK FOR THIS CLOUD COVER TO BEGIN BREAKING UP
AFTER SUNSET. THIS AFTERNOON, SKIES SHOULD BE CLEARER BEFORE
ANOTHER ROUND OF DENSER CLOUD COVER ARRIVES TOMORROW NIGHT.
REGARDLESS, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 24
HOURS AND WINDS SHOULD BE GENERALLY LIGHT AND TERRAIN-DRIVEN.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM...BGB
AVIATION...TGJT
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