186  
FXUS65 KGJT 041201  
AFDGJT  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO  
601 AM MDT SUN JUN 4 2023  
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)  
ISSUED AT 327 AM MDT SUN JUN 4 2023  
 
A ROGUE STORM POPPED UP OVER VERNAL LATE LAST NIGHT, DROPPING  
0.5 INCHES IN ABOUT 20 MINUTES. ACTIVITY SINCE THAT POINT IN TIME  
HAS LARGELY DIMINISHED WITH SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND BROKEN  
CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS THE NORTHERN DIVIDE ACROSS NORTHWEST  
COLORADO FROM THE FRONT RANGE. SHOULD SEE MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY  
WANE BY SUNRISE WITH CLEARING SKIES TO OUR WEST AND SOUTHWEST AND  
CLOUD COVER REMAINING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF OUR CWA.  
LAST EVENING'S GJT SOUNDING SHOWED A NOTABLE DECREASE IN PWAT FROM  
0.65 TO 0.54 INCHES SINCE YESTERDAY MORNING. THIS WAS EVIDENT WITH  
THE STORM ACTIVITY BEING FAIRLY SHORT LIVED AND WEAKENING AS  
STORMS DRIFTED OFF THE HIGH TERRAIN. EXPECT MORE OF THE SAME TODAY  
WITH STORMS FIRING OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN, MAINLY WESTERN COLORADO  
AND EASTERN UINTAS AND STAYING FAIRLY ANCHORED GIVEN THE WEAK  
STEERING WINDS ALOFT AND LACK OF FORCING AS A DEFORMATION AREA HAS  
ESSENTIALLY FORMED OVER OUR CWA. WE ARE IN THE MIDDLE OF A CUT OFF  
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NORTHWEST UTAH, A SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER  
WESTERN COLORADO, A REMNANT LOW CIRCULATION OVER SOUTHEAST  
COLORADO AND THE RESULTANT MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER NORTHEAST  
COLORADO. SO STORMS WILL FAVOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH STORMS  
WEAKENING AS THEY DRIFT OFF THE TERRAIN INTO THE VALLEYS BELOW.  
THERE IS LIMITED FORCING AND NOT ENOUGH SHEAR TO HELP SUSTAIN  
ACTIVITY. COULD SEE SOME BRIEF HEAVY RAIN IN SOME STORMS AND GUSTY  
WINDS MAYBE TO 30 MPH BUT NOTHING THAT STRONG. STORMS SHOULD  
DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET WITH SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY POSSIBLE  
OVERNIGHT.  
 
BY MONDAY, THE NORTHERN UTAH LOW WILL GET PUSHED NORTHWARD INTO  
IDAHO AS A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ONTO THE SOCAL COAST.  
THIS LOW WILL EXERT ITS INFLUENCE OVER OUR AREA AS THE FLOW SHIFTS  
TO SOUTHWEST. THIS IN TURN SHOULD BRING A SUBTLE INCREASE IN  
MOISTURE ALOFT, MORE EVIDENT WHEN LOOKING AT PWAT ANOMALIES RATHER  
THAN STRAIGHT UP PWAT VALUES. SO, STORM COVERAGE LOOKS TO  
INCREASE ON MONDAY COMPARED TO TODAY WITH BETTER CHANCE OF STORMS  
SUSTAINING WHEN DRIFTING OFF THE TERRAIN. ALSO BETTER CHANCE OF  
WETTING RAIN VERSUS GUSTY WINDS. GIVEN THE DRIER AIR TODAY AND  
SOUTHWEST FLOW ON MONDAY, SOME WAA WILL BE TAKING PLACE, ALLOWING  
OUR HIGH TEMPERATURES TO RISE BACK UP CLOSER TO NORMAL.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)  
ISSUED AT 327 AM MDT SUN JUN 4 2023  
 
AN OMEGA BLOCK WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE CONUS AT THE START OF THE LONG  
TERM PERIOD AS A DEEP LOW REMAINS OFF THE MASSACHUSETTS COAST,  
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER SOUTHERN CANADA AND ANOTHER DEEP LOW  
REMAINS JUST OFF THE SOCAL COAST. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE SOCAL LOW  
WILL TAP INTO SOME MOISTURE DOWN SOUTH AND STREAM IT INTO THE AREA  
BUT NOTHING 'TOO' EXCESSIVE WITH FORECAST PWATS REACHING AROUND .60  
INCHES WHICH IS ABOVE OUR AVERAGE OF .50 INCHES. DAYTIME HEATING  
ALONG WITH SOME MINOR DISTURBANCES WILL ALLOW ANOTHER DAY OF SHOWERS  
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO FIRE OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN BEFORE DRIFTING  
INTO ADJACENT VALLEYS ON TUESDAY. EXPECT MORE OF THE SAME ON  
WEDNESDAY BUT AS THE SOCAL LOW FINALLY GETS MOVING, A PUSH OF  
DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED FROM THE AFTERNOON ONWARDS. WE CAN EXPECT  
ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION WEDNESDAY BUT AS THE DRY AIR MOVES IN,  
THIS CONVECTION SHOULD START TO WANE, AT LEAST FOR THE FOUR  
CORNERS REGION AND CENTRAL TO SOUTHEAST UTAH. ELSEWHERE, ENOUGH  
MOISTURE AIDED BY A SHORTWAVE WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND STORMS GOING  
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. THANKS TO THE DRIER  
AIR, LOOK FOR A DOWNTURN OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THURSDAY AND A  
BUMP IN HIGH TEMPS.  
 
MODEL DISCREPANCIES POP UP ON FRIDAY AND CONTINUE HEADING INTO THE  
WEEKEND. THE GENERAL SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS CAPTURED FAIRLY WELL BUT  
THE FINER DETAILS JUST AREN'T THERE YET. WHILE CHANCES CERTAINLY  
EXIST FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION, IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN  
EXACTLY WHERE AND/OR WHEN. PLENTY OF TIME TO WORK OUT THOSE  
DETAILS THOUGH.  
 
THOSE CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL LIMIT HIGHS AT THE START OF THE LONG  
TERM PERIOD. HOWEVER, THEY WILL INCREASE TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK  
REACHING SEASONAL VALUES, IF NOT A BIT ABOVE.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)  
ISSUED AT 600 AM MDT SUN JUN 4 2023  
 
CLEAR SKIES WILL BE SEEN THIS MORNING ACROSS EASTERN UTAH AND  
WEST-CENTRAL TO SOUTHWEST COLORADO WITH SCT TO BKN SKIES ACROSS  
NORTHWEST COLORADO AND PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CORRIDOR.  
KHDN, KEGE AND KASE STAND THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING THESE LOWER  
CIGS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS  
AFTERNOON WITH KTEX, KASE, KEGE AND KHDN SEEING THE BEST CHANCE OF  
CUMULUS BUILDUPS AND VCTS AT SOME POINT. ANY STORM ACTIVITY WILL  
WEAKEN AS IT DRIFTS OFF THE TERRAIN WITH NOT MUCH SUSTAINABILITY  
OR MOVEMENT. COULD SEE BRIEF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WITH ANY STORM  
AND GUSTY WINDS UP TO 30 MPH. MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE THIS  
EVENING. OVERALL, EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH BRIEF MVFR IN ANY  
SHOWERS/STORMS DUE TO LOWER CIGS AND VSBY.  
 

 
   
HYDROLOGY
 
 
ISSUED AT 327 AM MDT SUN JUN 4 2023  
 
SNOWMELT RATES HAVE SLOWED DOWN DUE TO COOLER TEMPERATURES OVER  
THE LAST FEW DAYS. AS A RESULT, MOST MAIN STEMS AND TRIBUTARIES  
FOLLOW IN LINE, WITH A DOWNWARD TICK IN WATER LEVELS AND FORECAST  
FLOWS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. LOWER BASINS WITH SNOW BELOW 11,000  
FEET COULD CONTINUE TO SEE RISING RIVER AND STREAM FLOWS. THE  
GRAND MESA IN PARTICULAR, CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY MELT ITS SNOWPACK,  
CAPTURED BY THE FILLED LAKES AND RESERVOIRS ATOP THE MESA AND  
STRONG FLOWS DRAINING BELOW. THUS, SOME DRAINAGES HERE (I.E.  
SURFACE CREEK AND PLATEAU CREEK) ARE STILL AT RISK OF EXCEEDING  
BANKFULL CONDITIONS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND STORM COVERAGE  
INCREASES EARLY TO MID WEEK AS SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE RETURNS FROM  
THE SOUTH, YET TEMPERATURES RETURN TO NORMAL BY MONDAY. ANTICIPATE  
SPRING RUNOFF TO RAMP BACK UP AGAIN AS TEMPERATURES WARM AND MORE  
PRECIPITATION FALLS OVER THE COMING WEEK.  
 

 
   
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
CO...NONE.  
UT...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...MDA  
LONG TERM...TGR  
AVIATION...MDA  
HYDROLOGY...TGJT  
 
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