196
FXUS65 KGJT 071744
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1144 AM MDT WED OCT 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A FEW STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
AND SOME ISOLATED STORMS MAY OCCASIONALLY TRACK INTO VALLEYS.
- ISOLATED, TERRAIN-DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE
THROUGH SATURDAY.
- HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.
- A STRONGER STORM SYSTEM MAY PASS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK,
BRINGING CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1139 AM MDT WED OCT 7 2026
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS:
THERE HAS BEEN VERY LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE PATTERN YESTERDAY. IN
FACT, MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING THAT WEAK CIRCULATION OVER OUR AREA
ONCE AGAIN. EXPECT SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MOVING OFF THE
TERRAIN WILL FOCUS ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE VALLEYS INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL,
GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL. TOMORROW IS NOT MUCH
DIFFERENT, SO EXPECT SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH SIMILAR IMPACT.
TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, BUT COOL DOWN
CLOSER TO NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND.
POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION:
THE PATTERN GETS MUCH MORE COMPLICATED THIS WEEKEND. A LOW PRESSURE
DROPPING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL STEER THE REMNANTS OF
HURRICANE RACHEL INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. AS OF NOW MODELS AGREE
THE REMNANTS WILL TRACK OVER SOUTHERN CAL AND LAS VEGAS BEFORE
GETTING ABSORBED INTO THE DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE. FOR OUR ARE THAT
MEANS INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW AND MOISTURE ADVECTION BEGINNING ON
SATURDAY. THEREFORE PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND COVERAGE INCREASES. ON
SUNDAY WE SHOULD GET THE AFFECTS OF THE REMNANT TROPICAL SYSTEM. THE
MAIN UNCERTAINTIES ARE HOW MUCH FORCING AND OR CONVECTION WILL WE
ACTUALLY GET. THERE LOOKS TO BE A BREAK ON MONDAY BEFORE A POTENTIAL
SECOND ROUND, BUT THAT COULD CHANGE AT THIS POINT TOO. AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SPINS OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST IT BEGINS TO PULL MOSITURE
NORTHWARD FROM MEXICO. THIS MOISTURE MAY ALSO BE TROPICAL IN NATURE,
SO WE WOULD EXPECT INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES. EVENTUALLY THE
LOW PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARD OVER THE REGION. THIS SECOND ROUND WOULD
TAKE PLACE TUESDAY ONWARD. THE LOW PRESSURE WOULD CERTAINLY BRING
FORCING AND A COOLER AIRMASS TO OUR AREA, BUT THESE CUT OFF LOW
PRESSURES ARE NOTORIOUS FOR STALLING OUT LONGER THAN THE MODELS
INITIALLY SHOW. THEREFORE CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS IS LOW ATTM.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1113 AM MDT WED OCT 7 2026
EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE DIVIDE FARTHER
NORTH THROUGH 00Z DIMINISHING THEREAFTER AND ENDING BY ABOUT
04Z. INCLUDED PROB30 IN TAFS FOR KASE, KEGE, KGUC AND KTEX THIS
AFTERNOON. PROBABILITIES WERE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE OTHER
MOUNTAIN TAF SITES.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...TGJT
AVIATION...DB
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