262
FXUS65 KGJT 270446
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
946 PM MST FRI DEC 26 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
- ACCUMULATING SNOW IS EXPECTED FOR MOST MOUNTAINS RANGES,
ESPECIALLY ABOVE 8,000 FEET, FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
- THE MOST LIKELY WINDOW FOR SNOW IN VALLEYS BELOW 8,000 FEET
WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
- DRY AIR RETURNS BY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
RETURNING TO THE FORECAST BY MID WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 245 PM MST FRI DEC 26 2025
WHILE THIS WEEKEND'S FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR SCATTERED TO
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY,
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN SNOW AMOUNTS REMAINS LOW TO MEDIUM DUE
TO TEMPERATURES TEETERING AROUND FREEZING FOR MUCH OF THE
EVENT.
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL USHER IN ANOTHER ROUND OF MOISTURE LATER
TODAY, MAINLY UP IN THE UINTAS. THAT MOISTURE SPREADS INTO
OTHER PORTIONS OF THE AREA TONIGHT AS THE MAIN TROUGH ALONG THE
WEST COAST BEGINS TO MOVE INLAND. THE AIR MASS IN PLACE REMAINS
WARM AND MODELS DEPICT SNOW LEVELS AROUND 8-9 KFT THIS
AFTERNOON, PERHAPS DROPPING DOWN TO ABOUT 7-8 KFT OVERNIGHT.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE ACROSS WESTERN COLORADO TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AS SYNOPTIC FORCING INCREASES FROM WEST TO EAST AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH. IF THIS PART OF THE TROUGH CONTAINS
COOLER AIR, WE MAY SEE SNOW LEVELS DROP. HOWEVER, THIS "COOLER"
AIR WILL COINCIDE WITH PEAK DAYTIME HEATING SO IT'S HARD TO
TELL WHICH PROCESS WILL WIN OUT LEADING TO SOME VARIABILITY AND
UNCERTAINTY FOR WHERE THAT RAIN/SNOW LINE WILL END UP.
CONFIDENCE IN ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IS HIGHEST FOR ELEVATIONS
ABOVE 8 KFT SO THIS IS WHERE TRAVEL IMPACTS ARE MOST LIKELY.
HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON MOUNTAIN PASSES.
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPS IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BRING A STRONG AND
WELL-DEFINED COLD FRONT INTO OUR AREA. SNOW LEVELS MAY DROP INTO
THE VALLEYS WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THIS COLD AIR. THERE IS STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE
WHEN THIS PARTICULAR FRONT ARRIVES. DRY AIR IS ANTICIPATED TO
OVERTAKE THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT. WHATEVER MOISTURE IS LEFT
IN THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE SQUEEZED OUT ON SUNDAY BUT MOST OF THE
IMPACTFUL SNOWFALL WILL HAVE MOVED EAST BY SUNDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 245 PM MST FRI DEC 26 2025
NORTHERLY FLOW MOVES IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM ALONG
WITH DRIER AIR, GIVING WAY TO CLEARING SKIES SUNDAY NIGHT WHERE
LOWS ARE PROJECTED TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE TEENS FOR THE LOWER
VALLEYS AND SINGLE DIGITS FOR THE HIGHER VALLEYS. COLD POOL
BASINS, ESPECIALLY WHERE THERE IS SNOW COVER, COULD DROP EVEN
FURTHER BELOW ZERO. QUITE THE DEPARTURE FROM WHAT WE ARE
EXPERIENCING NOW. DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MID
WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE WEST AND NORTHWEST
FLOW OVERHEAD. TEMPERATURES START OFF ON THE CHILLY SIDE WITH
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL HIGHS BUT DO MODERATE TO AROUND 5
TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY MID WEEK...STILL COOLER THAN WHAT
WE ARE CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR UNSETTLED
WEATHER TO RETURN TO THE REGION LATE THIS WEEK AS A TROUGH MOVES
ONTO THE WEST COAST AND PULLS SOME MOISTURE INTO THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION AND ACROSS THE WESTERN SLOPE.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 943 PM MST FRI DEC 26 2025
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE THIS MORNING. CEILINGS
WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE WITH
A RICH PLUME OF MOISTURE STREAMING INTO THE REGION. BREAKPOINT
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT MOST TERMINALS FROM THIS MORNING
ONWARD INTO THE AFTERNOON AS SHOWERS CONTINUE. A RAIN-SNOW MIX
IS EXPECTED IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS DUE TO WARM CONDITIONS AND
HIGHER FREEZING LEVELS, WITH THE SNOW LEVEL LOWERING TO BETWEEN
6000-7000 FEET BY THE END OF THIS PERIOD. WINDS ALOFT REMAIN
STRONG ACROSS NORTHEAST UTAH AND NORTHWEST COLORADO OVERNIGHT,
THIS IS EXPECTED TO KEEP SURFACE WINDS UP AND LLWS IN A FEW
TAFS.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM MST SUNDAY FOR COZ003-009-
010-012-013-017>019.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 AM MST SUNDAY FOR COZ004.
UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM MST SUNDAY FOR UTZ028.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST SATURDAY FOR UTZ023.
SHORT TERM...KAA
LONG TERM...MDA
AVIATION...TGJT
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