170
FXUS65 KGJT 021132
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
432 AM MST FRI JAN 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW CONTINUE TODAY WITH HAZARDOUS
TRAVEL EXPECTED OVER THE MOUNTAIN PASSES.
- BORDERLINE FREEZING CONDITIONS COULD PRODUCE RAIN-SNOW MIXES
AT THE SHOULDER ELEVATIONS TODAY WITH LOCALIZED ACCUMULATIONS
AT LOWER ELEVATIONS.
- UNSETTLED WEATHER POTENTIALLY RETURNS SUNDAY NIGHT, BUT
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN LIGHT OF PERSISTENT WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 315 AM MST FRI JAN 2 2026
WHILE THE SYNOPTIC PICTURE LOOKS PRETTY BENIGN THIS MORNING, ENOUGH
MOISTURE HAS INTRUDED BENEATH THE RIDGE TO FUEL SOME STEADY, LIGHT
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVE
RIPPLES TAKING ADVANTAGE OF DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND A WEAK SURFACE
BOUNDARY HAVE PRODUCED SOME MEASURABLE SNOW IN THE I-70 CORRIDOR
FROM RIFLE TO THE EAST. TEMPERATURES REMAIN A PROBLEM, HOWEVER. THE
WARM AIR MASS TRAPPED UNDER THE RIDGE IS TAKING A LITTLE BIT OF
DYNAMIC COOLING WITHIN THE SHOWERS TO NUDGE TEMPERATURES DOWNWARD
ENOUGH FOR SNOW. I DON'T EXPECT THIS REGIME TO CHANGE MUCH THIS
MORNING WITH THE CLOUD COVER IN PLACE. AN UPTICK IN SHOWERS COULD
SEND RAIN OVER TO SNOW PRETTY EASILY IN THE SHOULDER ELEVATIONS.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES WERE LEFT ALONE, KEEPING MUCH OF THE
IMPACTS 8500 FEET AND ABOVE, SAVE FOR THE PARK RANGE AND ELKHEADS.
THE MAIN TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH FROM ABOUT DAYBREAK TO MID-
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PRODUCE A FEW STRONGER SHOWERS THAT WILL
PRODUCE THE LION'S SHARE OF THE SNOWFALL FOR OUR ADVISORIES. MORNING
COMMUTES COULD SEE SOME CHALLENGES WITHIN THE STRONGER SNOW SHOWERS.
HIGH RES MODELS TAPER OFF SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
TROUGH AROUND 1400 MST THIS AFTERNOON. SOME LIGHT OROGRAPHIC SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE THOUGH, INTO THE EVENING, MOSTLY UP NORTH AND ALONG
THE VERY WEST EDGE OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. STUBBORN CLOUD COVER
IS EXPECTED TO KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM PLUMMETING TONIGHT IN OUR COLD
BASINS, BUT LOWS IN LOWER 20S AND TEENS SHOULD BE EXPECTED. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVERHEAD SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN EXCESS OF 10-15
DEGREES OVER CLIMATOLOGY AGAIN. CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM
COMING ASHORE OUT WEST COULD DAMPEN HEATING ON SATURDAY, BUT INERTIA
FROM THE WARM AIR MASS PARKED ACROSS THE WEST WILL PROVE HARD TO
CRACK, EVEN WITH CLOUD COVER. THIS SHOULD GUARANTEE ANOTHER NIGHT OF
MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 315 AM MST FRI JAN 2 2026
THE AXIS OF AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE MOVES EAST OF THE DIVIDE SATURDAY
NIGHT, WITH FLOW ALOFT SHIFTING TO SOUTHWESTERLY. THIS WILL ADVECT
WARM, MOIST AIR INTO EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO, LEADING TO
INCREASED CLOUDINESS AND A FEW LIGHT OROGRAPHIC SHOWERS ON SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, EVEN APPROACHING
20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN SPOTS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. BY MONDAY,
PASSING SHORTWAVES IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW COULD LEAD TO MORE
SUBSTANTIAL VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION.
THIS WARM AND UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL STICK AROUND THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK, AND COULD RESULT IN A COUPLE OF INCHES OF MOUNTAIN SNOW
BY WEDNESDAY. THERE ARE HINTS OF A PATTERN CHANGE FOR THE LATTER
HALF OF NEXT WEEK, AS ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE ALL
BRING A DEEPER, COLDER TROUGH INTO THE WESTERN CONUS. AGREEMENT ON
DETAILS, SUCH AS STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THE TROUGH, REMAINS LOW AT
THIS TIME-STEP, BUT IT IS SOMETHING TO KEEP IN MIND AS WE MOVE
THROUGH THE FIRST FULL WEEK OF 2026.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 428 AM MST FRI JAN 2 2026
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS, ALONG WITH LOW CEILINGS AND REDUCED
VISIBILITY, WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT TERMINALS THROUGH 18Z. MVFR
TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS PERIOD, WITH DROPS
TO LIFR LIKELY. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE BETWEEN 18Z
AND 00Z, WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING BY 00Z. FOG AND LOW
STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE VALLEYS THIS EVENING,
PARTICULARLY IMPACTING KDRO, VEL, AND KGUC AFTER 06Z. WINDS
REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD, THOUGH
GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS COULD DEVELOP AT KDRO THIS AFTERNOON.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
COZ004-009-010-012-013-017>019.
UT...NONE.
SHORT TERM...LTB
LONG TERM...BGB
AVIATION...TGJT
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