694
FXUS65 KGJT 132341
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
441 PM MST TUE JAN 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 108 PM MST TUE JAN 13 2026
AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS IS KEEPING US UNDER DRY
AND WARM NORTHWEST FLOW. A SYSTEM MOVING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE
HIGH WILL DIG INTO THE CENTRAL US. SOME OF THAT ENERGY CLIPS
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST COLORADO RESULTING IN LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS TONIGHT. THE PARK RANGE AND VAIL PASS MAY SEE SOME
FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW AS THAT WAVE MOVES BY THE AREA. LITTLE TO
NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. ELSEWHERE WILL BE MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES TODAY BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN FAIRLY CONSISTENT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS SINCE
THE HIGH DOES NOT REALLY MOVE MUCH.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 108 PM MST TUE JAN 13 2026
THE BLOCKY, AMPLIFIED PATTERN SET UP ACROSS THE CONUS CONTINUES INTO
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION
ALONG THE EASTERN PERIMETER OF THE WEST COAST HIGH. NORMALLY, COLD
AIR INTRUSION WOULD BE A CONCERN UNDER THIS REGIME, BUT NOT THIS
YEAR. THE WARM, ANTECEDENT AIR MASS PARKED OVER THE WEST PERSISTS.
THIS MEANS TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE AVERAGING 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGY THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FEW WEAK NORTHWESTERLY WAVES SPILL
OVER THE DIRTY RIDGE ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO, BUT LIKELY ONLY YIELD
SOME THIN CLOUD COVER, THANKS TO THE DRY AIR MASS IN THE LOWER
LEVELS. WITH A MOSTLY QUIET AND STAGNANT PATTERN IN PLACE, ATTENTION
TURNS TO SUNDAY AND BEYOND. THE UPPER TROUGH SLIDES EASTWARD AND
SOME SIGNAL ARISES IN FLATTENING THE WESTERN RIDGING. SPAGHETTI
PLOTS ARE KIND OF A MESS, AS THEY TYPICALLY ARE DURING REGIME SHIFT.
EC/GFS LOOSELY AGREE ON SOME MAINTENANCE OF THE RIDGE, ALBEIT
SLIGHTLY FLATTER. THIS COULD GIVE WAY TO A MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN
NEXT WEEK, BUT THE WARM SUBSIDENT AIR MASS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC
SEEMS FORMIDABLE ENOUGH TO HANG ON. WE WILL SEE. PERSISTENCE
FORECASTING LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET FROM A STATISTICAL STANDPOINT.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 438 PM MST TUE JAN 13 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. SCT TO BKN HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVERAGE WILL CLEAR
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
SHORT TERM...KJS
LONG TERM...LTB
AVIATION...TGJT
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