080  
FXUS65 KGJT 142337  
AFDGJT  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO  
537 PM MDT SUN SEP 14 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
- MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY AND MONDAY WITH  
ISOLATED STORMS POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.  
 
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER  
TERRAIN ON TUESDAY AS A DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE NORTH.  
 
- TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK WILL OSCILLATE BETWEEN 5 DEGREES  
BELOW AND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.  
 
- MOISTURE POTENTIALLY RETURNS LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE COMING  
WEEKEND BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
 
 
ISSUED AT 136 PM MDT SUN SEP 14 2025  
 
SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS LIFTED OUT OVER THE PLAINS ALLOWING FOR DRIER  
AIR TO FILTER IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE  
POSSIBLE ALONG THE DIVIDE WHERE THERE IS LINGERING MOISTURE. WHILE  
THE WESTERN SLOPE WILL BE UNDER A DRIER WESTERLY FLOW, A LOW  
PRESSURE TROUGH WILL MOVE INLAND TODAY ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST  
AND TRACK THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST ON MONDAY. WE WILL FEEL THE  
INFLUENCE OF THE JET ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE AFTERNOON WINDS COULD BE  
BREEZY AT TIMES. SOME MOISTURE WILL ALSO ADVECT IN ACROSS THE NORTH  
AND WHILE IT ISN'T AS ABUNDANT AS WHAT WE RECENTLY EXPERIENCED, IT  
STILL MAY BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE  
NORTH MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE REST OF THE CWA LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY ON  
MONDAY. TEMPERATURES ALSO LOOK TO RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 136 PM MDT SUN SEP 14 2025  
 
ON TUESDAY A CLOSED LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE AREA FROM WYOMING.  
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT REACHES THE NORTH PORTIONS OF THE CWA SO SHOWERS  
MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH BEST CHANCES IN THE UINTAS. ON WEDNESDAY THE  
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES SOUTHEASTWARD PASSING OVER NE CO. NOT  
SURE HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE WHEN IT ARRIVES, BUT IT  
LOOKS LIKE THE SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME WITH IT. THE NORTHEAST  
PORTION OF THE AREA APPEARS TO BE FAVORED TUESDAY NIGHT, WHICH  
IS WHERE THE FORCING IS THE HIGHEST. ON WEDNESDAY THE MODELS DO  
NOT PRODUCE MUCH QPF ON THE WESTERN SLOPE. ALTHOUGH THINGS HAVE  
BEEN TRENDING WETTER SO PERHAPS QPF MAY INCREASE DURING THAT  
TIME FRAME. RIDGING WILL BUILD ALOFT ON THURSDAY BEHIND THE  
TROUGH PASSAGE, BUT AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES TO OUR EAST,  
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW MAY BRING OUR NEXT POTENTIAL MOISTURE PUSH  
LATE IN THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL ON MONDAY,  
AND WILL CONTINUE TO OSCILLATE ABOVE AND BELOW NORMAL THROUGH  
THE WEEK.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 534 PM MDT SUN SEP 14 2025  
 
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE TAF  
PERIOD THOUGH SOME TAF SITES MAY SEE SOME GUSTS TO 20 KTS AFTER  
20Z. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE SO A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM OVER  
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AFTER 18Z.  
 

 
   
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
CO...NONE.  
UT...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...KJS  
LONG TERM...KJS  
AVIATION...DB  
 
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