351
FXUS65 KGJT 190522
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1122 PM MDT THU JUN 18 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LOCALIZED CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY,
BECOMING WIDESPREAD UNDER STRONG WINDS SATURDAY.
- THE THREAT OF TERRAIN-BASED DRY THUNDERSTORMS EMERGES TODAY
INTO THE WEEKEND, INCREASING THE ODDS FOR NEW FIRE STARTS.
- FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS BECOME MORE LOCALIZED SUNDAY,
GRADUALLY INCREASING IN COVERAGE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS RETURN.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 934 PM MDT THU JUN 18 2026
THE RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN TODAY AS TROUGHING PUSHES IN FROM THE
WEST. FLOW ALOFT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO WESTERLY AND THEN
SOUTHWESTERLY BY TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS FLOW SHIFT, A BIT OF UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE TRIES TO SNEAK IN UNDER THE RIDGE. THIS MOISTURE
LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH TO FIRE OFF A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN, MAINLY FAVORING THE SAN JUANS
AND THE EASTERN UINTAS. WITH SUCH A DRY SURFACE LAYER IN PLACE, ANY
SHOWERS OR STORMS THAT DO FORM WILL BE FAR MORE LIKELY TO PRODUCE
GUSTY AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS AND DRY LIGHTNING RATHER THAN ANY
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. ANOTHER LITTLE PUSH OF MOISTURE IS
FORECAST TO SNEAK IN WITH THE TROUGH PASSAGE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY,
THIS TIME FAVORING ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHERN RANGES A
BIT MORE. BUT THE SAME ISSUES REMAIN, DRY SURFACE AIR LIMITING THE
CHANCES OF ANY WETTING RAIN AND INCREASING THE PROBABILITY OF DRY
LIGHTNING CAUSING NEW FIRE STARTS. THIS TROUGH WILL AT LEAST BRING A
BREAK FROM THE TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT. AFTER ANOTHER DAY OF 10+ DEGREE
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY, HIGHS OVER THE WEEKEND WILL DROP TO
NEAR OR AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. UNFORTUNATELY, HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS BACK IN OVER THE SOUTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK, AND WITH ITS
RETURN SO DOES THE HEAT. HIGHS RETURN TO AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL, AND TRIPLE DIGITS RETURN TO THE DESERT VALLEYS.
SATURDAY REMAINS THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS, AS SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASE BETWEEN THE
APPROACHING TROUGHING THE WEAKENING RIDGE. WINDS WILL GUST 30-40 MPH
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE. DRY
SURFACE LEVELS REMAIN STUBBORNLY IN PLACE, WITH DAYTIME MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE LOW TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS FOR ALL
BUT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. FIRE WEATHER WATCHES REMAIN IN PLACE FOR
ALL FIRE WEATHER ZONES IN WESTERN COLORADO, AND ALL UTAH FIRE
WEATHER ZONES EXCEPTING ZONE 485. ONCE THE TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD,
HUMIDITY VALUES TICK UPWARD JUST A BIT, MAINLY NORTH OF I-70, WITH
MINIMUM HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE 15-20% RANGE. WINDS ALSO WEAKEN
APPRECIABLY, WITH LOCALIZED POCKETS OF 20-30 MPH GUSTS CONFINED TO
AREAS ALONG THE DIVIDE. AS A RESULT, ONLY LOCALIZED CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED. THIS TREND OF LOCALIZED CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, AS THE
BUILDING RIDGE KEEPS WINDS ON THE LIGHTER SIDE, BUT ALSO KEEPS
THINGS HOT AND DRY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1120 PM MDT THU JUN 18 2026
FEW TO SCATTERED MID-LEVEL AND CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL BLANKET MUCH
OF THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 24 HOURS, BUT VFR CONDITIONS
CONTINUE. WINDS WILL BE WEAKER FRIDAY, BUT MOST, IF NOT ALL
TERMINALS SHOULD EXPECT 18-22 KT GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 934 PM MDT THU JUN 18 2026
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY ERODE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS A
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE GREAT BASIN. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN LOCALIZED UNDER LIGHTER WINDS AND HOT, DRY
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. NON ZERO CHANCES FOR TERRAIN BASED,
MOSTLY DRY THUNDERSTORMS EMERGE THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL, ELEVATING
THE CHANCES FOR NEW FIRE STARTS. THIS CHANCE INCREASES SATURDAY
AFTERNOON, GIVEN THE MORE DYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT THAT DEVELOPS UNDER
THE SHORTWAVE. FIRE WEATHER WATCHES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR NEARLY ALL
FOR EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO ON SATURDAY.
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS BECOME MORE LOCALIZED BY SUNDAY.
THE THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT CONTINUES
INTO SUNDAY AS WELL. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS NEXT WEEK WITH TRIPLE
DIGIT TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO RETURN TO OUR LOW DESERT VALLEYS. WITH
LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES EXPECTED, THIS WILL LIKELY INCLUDE CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUING AS WELL.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR COZ200>203-205-207-290>295.
UT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR UTZ486-487-490-491.
DISCUSSION...BGB/TGJT
AVIATION...TGJT
FIRE WEATHER...TGJT
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