950
FXUS65 KGJT 300021
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
621 PM MDT WED APR 29 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- FREEZE WARNINGS IN PLACE FOR THE YAMPA BASIN AND CENTRAL
COLORADO BASIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING.
- ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, WITH SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW
ABOVE 8500 FEET.
- TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE AVERAGE THIS WEEKEND, WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS ON THE MOUNTAINS EACH AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 102 PM MDT WED APR 29 2026
WESTERLY, ZONAL FLOW IS PAINTING CUMULUS ACROSS THE TERRAIN
THIS AFTERNOON. UNFORTUNATELY, MID LEVEL CAPPING IS SUPPRESSING
SHOWER GROWTH. A FEW RETURNS ARE SHOWING UP ON RADAR, WITH JUST
TRACE AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION MAKING IT TO GAUGES. INITIAL
THOUGHTS WERE THAT CAPPING WOULD BE LESS INFLUENTIAL THIS
AFTERNOON, BUT THAT HASN'T BEEN THE CASE THUS FAR. GUSTY WINDS
CONTINUE TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE TOO. THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN
HOLDS ON INTO THURSDAY, WITH SIMILAR RESULTS EXPECTED THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. KEPT WITH PERSISTENCE IN TEMPERATURES AS WELL. WENT
AHEAD AND ISSUED ANOTHER FREEZE WARNING FOR THE YAMPA AND
CENTRAL COLORADO BASINS, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS DIPPING INTO THE
UPPER 20S THERE AGAIN.
A WEAK LOW WORKS ACROSS BAJA ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS LOOKS
TO SET IN MOTION THE REGIME CHANGE WE'VE BEEN WAITING ON. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WEST AS WELL. A WEAK SURFACE LOW
APPEARS TO HANG UP TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. THIS WILL PRODUCE ADDITIONAL MOUNTAIN SNOW FOR THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND THE SAN JUANS. WHILE SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL
FALL ON THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS, ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE BEST FROM
VAIL PASS SOUTHWARD. MOUNTAIN TRAVELERS CAN EXPECT SOME SNOW ON
ROADS BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNINGS. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
WILL LEAD TO JUST WET ROADS.
THE WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES SATURDAY
INTO MONDAY. AFTERNOON SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ON THE MOUNTAINS
TOO, AS WE HANG ON TO REMNANT MOISTURE AND MELTED SNOWPACKS.
MODELS ARE STILL PUSHING A LOW ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. THE MOISTURE TAP REMAINS PRETTY INSIGNIFICANT ON THIS
ONE. FORTUNATELY, WE CAN EXPECT SOME COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
LIGHT MOISTURE TO STAVE OFF HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS ANOTHER FEW
DAYS, AS TEMPERATURES HOVER AROUND NORMAL MID WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 549 PM MDT WED APR 29 2026
A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS CONTINUE VICINITY KASE AND KEGE FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE HOURS. OTHERWISE, LOOK FOR LIGHT WINDS AND VFR
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. THEN SNOW SHOWERS BECOME POSSIBLE VICINITY
KEGE, KASE AND KGUC AFTER 12Z WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS NEAR
KTEX, KRIL AND KHDN BY 18Z. AFTER 18Z, SHOWERS WILL CHANGE OVER
TO RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 00Z. WINDS WILL GENERALLY
BECOME NORTH TO NORTHWEST WITH GUST TO 20 KTS AFTER 18Z AT MOST
TAF SITES.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM MDT THURSDAY FOR
COZ002-008.
UT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...LTB
AVIATION...DB
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