190
FXUS65 KGJT 150149
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
749 PM MDT THU MAY 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM, DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WHERE FUELS ARE CRITICAL.
- A SYSTEM WILL BRING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THIS WEEKEND,
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
- MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WITH POTENTIAL SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT FOR SOME
HIGHER VALLEY LOCATIONS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 742 PM MDT THU MAY 14 2026
THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR THE GUNNISON BASIN HAS BEEN CANCELLED,
AS WINDS THERE HAVE SUBSIDED AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES BEGIN TO
RAISE. A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THOUGH, FOR THE
GUNNISON BASIN, ALONG WITH PARTS OF EASTERN UTAH, AND NORTHWEST
COLORADO ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1203 PM MDT THU MAY 14 2026
WARM, DRY AND BREEZY:
PRIMARILY ZONAL FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE BEHIND YESTERDAY'S SYSTEM
AND WEAK COLD FRONT, WITH WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH
WITH A FEW DEGREES COOLER ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS. NOT
QUITE AS HOT BUT STILL 5 TO 10 DEGREES OR SO ABOVE NORMAL. WINDS
WILL PICK UP AGAIN ON FRIDAY AS AN 80 KT JET STREAK APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST DUE TO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ENTERING THE
PACNW, WITH THE WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST AND THE GRADIENT
TIGHTENING A BIT. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN UPTICK IN CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST UTAH AND
NORTHWEST COLORADO AS WELL AS THE GUNNISON BASIN WHERE A RED
FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED WHERE FUELS ARE CRITICAL. SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE SAN JUANS BUT
LOOK TO PRODUCE MORE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND LIGHTNING THAN
WETTING RAIN DUE TO THE DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE.
THIS WEEKEND INTO MONDAY:
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ON SATURDAY WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH
OR GREATER AS THE PACNW TROUGH DEEPENS TO OUR WEST, INCREASING
THE SOUTHWEST GRADIENT. SOME MOISTURE WILL ADVECT AHEAD OF THIS
TROUGH WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON,
BECOMING SCATTERED BY EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL STILL BE DRY,
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-70, SO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE GUSTY WINDS. INITIALLY, STORMS
WILL PRODUCE MORE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND LIGHTNING THAN WETTING
RAIN BUT CHANCES OF WETTING PRECIPITATION INCREASE SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT AND TROUGH SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO NEAR NORMAL SUNDAY AND 10 TO 20
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BY MONDAY. IN FACT, WITH THIS COLD FRONT
AND COOLER AIR MASS MOVING IN BEHIND IT, THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL
FOR MOUNTAIN SNOW AS WELL AS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES MONDAY
NIGHT FOR SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS.
EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK:
NORTHWEST FLOW SETS UP BEHIND THIS DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM
TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ALONG THE WEST COAST, WHICH
WILL KEEP US IN A COOLER BUT DRIER PATTERN THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WE
MAY SEE SOME CONTINUED OROGRAPHIC LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE
NORTHERN DIVIDE MOUNTAINS AS WELL. TEMPERATURES STAY BELOW
NORMAL TUESDAY BUT RETURN TO AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY
LATE NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 536 PM MDT THU MAY 14 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
STRONGER GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 KTS REMAIN AT SOME SITES, BUT
WINDS WILL CALM AFTER SUNSET, AND BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT. SKC IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT. DURING THE
AFTERNOON TOMORROW CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE, AND GUSTY WINDS
WILL RETURN.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1203 PM MDT THU MAY 14 2026
WINDS REMAIN GUSTY ALONG THE WEST SIDE OF THE DIVIDE TODAY
RESULTING IN A RED FLAG WARNING FOR COZ293, THE GUNNISON BASIN.
ELSEWHERE, A VERY DRY AIRMASS MOVES IN (RH IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
TO LOW TEENS), BUT WINDS WON'T BE AS STRONG. WATCH OUT FOR
LOCALIZED CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL INCREASE
ACROSS THE NORTH FRIDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING DISTURBANCE
WHERE COVERAGE OF GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY HAS
PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF A RED FLAG WARNING FOR NE UTAH AND NW
COLORADO FIRE ZONES WHERE FUELS ARE CRITICAL (UTZ486-487,
COZ200-202-293). CONDITIONS REMAIN DRY MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I-70 ON SATURDAY WITH WINDS INCREASING AND BECOMING MORE
WIDESPREAD, PROMPTING THE ISSUANCE OF A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR
UTZ490 AND COZ290 AND 292 WHERE COVERAGE AND DURATION IS BEST.
CONDITIONS ARE MORE BORDERLINE ACROSS THE NORTH IN TERMS OF
RH. HUMIDITY INCREASES LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH BETTER
CHANCES OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AND WETTING RAIN SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 8 PM MDT FRIDAY FOR COZ200-202-
293.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR COZ290-292.
UT...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 8 PM MDT FRIDAY FOR UTZ486-487.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR UTZ490.
UPDATE...LTB
DISCUSSION...MDA/TGJT
AVIATION...TGJT
FIRE WEATHER...TGJT
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