723
FXUS65 KGJT 251748
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1148 AM MDT SAT APR 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDESPREAD RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW RETURNS SATURDAY EVENING
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY AS A PACIFIC SYSTEM WORKS ACROSS THE
ROCKIES.
- SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP TO NEAR MOUNTAIN BASES DURING THE
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS BUT THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE 9000 FEET.
- MOUNTAIN PASSES ARE LIKELY TO BECOME SLUSHY TO SNOW PACKED
DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS WITH MELTING EXPECTED DURING
DAYLIGHT HOURS.
- THE COOLER AND UNSETTLED WEATHER PERSISTS THROUGH THE WORK
WEEK AND POSSIBLY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 900 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2026
SEEMS LIKE A VERY NON LATE-APRIL WEATHER PATTERN IN PLACE ON
THE 25/00Z H500 HAND ANALYSIS MAP THIS EVENING. THERE IS A VERY
BLOCKY PATTERN OVER THE HIGHER LATITUDES REACHING INTO THE
NORTHERN CONUS. THIS INCLUDES ANOMALOUS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
CANADIAN PRAIRIES AND OFF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WITH AMPLIFIED
RIDGING SQUEEZED BETWEEN THESE LOWS AND ALSO OFF THE THE WEST
COAST. THE NORTHERN MID-LATITUDES ARE ON THE FRINGE OF THESE
LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WHILE TO THE SOUTH ZONAL WESTERLIES
DOMINATE THE FLOW. A COLD FRONT TIED TO THE WESTERN LOW IS
DROPPING TOWARD OUR NORTHERN BORDER LATE THIS EVENING AND IS
LIKELY TO SAG PAST HIGHWAY 40 OVERNIGHT. THIS FRONT LIKELY
WASHES OUT OR LIFTS NORTHWARD TOMORROW AS THE SOUTHERLY FLOW
INCREASES ALOFT. IN THE SOUTH WATER VAPOR IS SHOWING A SHEARING
WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH UTAH WHICH WILL REACH OUR SOUTHERN CWA
AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE MODELS WANT TO POP SOME WEAK CONVECTION AS
THIS WAVE RELEASES INSTABILITY. CAN'T IMAGINE MEASURABLE PRECIP
BUT RATHER VIRGA/ACCAS...BUT MAY NEED SOME LOW POPS OVERNIGHT.
THE GYRE TO THE NORTH SHIFTS NORTHWARD ON SATURDAY AND RE-
ORIENTS SW TO NE WHICH WILL SLINGSHOT A SYSTEM OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TO THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE SUBTROP JET REMAINS
MODERATELY STRONG AND ACTIVE WHICH WILL ARC NORTHWARD IN THE
DEVELOPING SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING PACIFIC WAVE. THETA
SURFACES SHOW A STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTIVE SIGNATURE NOSING OUT
OF THE BAJA...ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS BY LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
THIS ANOMALOUS PWAT WILL COMBINE WITH INCREASING LARGE SCALE
ASCENT FROM THE APPROACHING SYSTEM WHILE ALSO UTILIZING STRONG
SW OROGRAPHICS TO RELEASE INSTABILITY AND LEAD TO WIDESPREAD
ACCUMULATING PRECIPITATION. QPF AMOUNTS OF TWO- THIRDS TO AN
INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER FAVORED SW FACING SLOPES WITH A TENTH
TO NEAR 1/3 OF AN INCH OVER THE VALLEYS WITH THIS FIRST PULSE
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. THIS WARM SYSTEM MEANS LOW
LIQUID TO SNOW RATIOS OF 8-12:1 THROUGH THE EVENT WITH THE
HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS ABOVE 9500 FEET. THE BIGGEST IMPACTS TO
ROADWAYS REMAIN LIMITED TO THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS
INTO SUNDAY. AMOUNTS ON VEGETATION MAY REACH 6-12 INCHES OVER
THE HIGHER PEAKS OF THE SAN JUANS/WEST ELKS/ELKS/GRAND MESA/FLAT
TOPS WITH VARYING AMOUNTS ON ROADWAYS DUE TO MELTING. STILL NOT
OVERLY CONFIDENT ON PROLONGS AND WIDESPREAD WINTER HAZARDS AT
THIS POINT.
OTHER THREATS ON SUNDAY INCLUDE THUNDERSTORMS AS THE MAIN
ENERGY ROLLS THROUGH. OVERALL INSTABILITY WILL BE SOMEWHAT
TEMPERED BY THE THICKER CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION BUT
HEAVIER PRECIPITATION RATES/TEMPORARY LOWER SNOW LEVELS CAN
CERTAINLY BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH THE LIGHTNING THREAT. HOWEVER
THIS UNSETTLED PATTERN IS LIKELY TO KEEP SNOW GOING OVER
PORTIONS OF THE HIGH COUNTRY WELL INTO TUESDAY BEFORE WE GET A
SHORT BREAK MID-WEEK.
THE SECOND PULSE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WILL ASSOCIATED WITH THE
COLDER VORTEX TO THE NORTH AND THIS COULD LEAD TO LOWER SNOW
LEVELS AND HIGHER SNOW RATIOS WHICH WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR. WITH THIS UNSETTLED WEATHER, EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
REMAIN NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1135 AM MDT SAT APR 25 2026
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL TRAVERSE THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE
DAY. VIRGA OR VERY LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES TODAY.
WINDS WILL BE GUSTING AGAIN TODAY INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS,
WITH VALUES IN THE 20-30 KT RANGE. WINDS BEGIN TO DECREASE IN
MAGNITUDE AS WE MOVE CLOSER TO NIGHTFALL.
FOR TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING, LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND
LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE
NIGHT. CIGS WILL BE DROPPING BELOW ILS BREAKPOINTS AT THE
MOUNTAIN TERMINALS. OTHER TERMINALS ALSO HAVE THE POSSIBILITY TO
DROP BELOW THOSE BREAKPOINTS AS WELL. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE DUE TO THE LOWERING CIGS AND DECREASED VISIBILITY WHERE
THERE IS ACTIVE SHOWER ACTIVITY.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...TGJT
AVIATION...TGJT
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page