176  
FXUS65 KGJT 021235 CCA  
AFDGJT  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO  
535 AM MST FRI DEC 2 2022  
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)  
ISSUED AT 505 AM MST FRI DEC 2 2022  
 
THE 110 KT JET IS DROPPING DOWN OVER THE REGION FROM THE PACIFIC  
NORTHWEST WITH THE COLD FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH SALT LAKE CITY  
AROUND 1 AM. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT, STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS HAVE BEEN  
PICKING UP OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE REGION TO THE NORTHWEST AND SHIFTING  
TO THE SOUTHEAST. CRAIG REPORTED A 60 MPH GUST. LOOK FOR THESE WINDS  
TO INCREASE GOING INTO THE MORNING HOURS, PEAKING BEFORE NOON AND  
DIMINISHING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HAVE KEPT THE WIND ADVISORY IN  
PLACE FOR EASTERN UTAH AND SOUTHWESTERN COLORADO THROUGH 3 PM THIS  
AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY, THE WIND ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN COLORADO  
WAS UPGRADED TO A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR STRONG WINDS AND SNOW  
SHOWERS.  
 
WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND WINDS KEEPING THE ATMOSPHERE WELL MIXED,  
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN ON THE WARM SIDE OVERNIGHT. MANY AREAS ARE  
CURRENTLY SEEING THEIR THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR THE DAY WITH THE  
TEMPERATURES FALLING THROUGH THE DAY AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.  
WITH THE DEEP MIXING, THE SNOW LEVELS ARE GENERALLY ABOVE 7500 FT  
ACROSS THE REGION. SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE HAS MOVED UP FROM THE  
SOUTHWEST BRINGING SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO THE VALLEYS AND SNOW  
SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS. LOOK FOR THE SNOW LEVEL TO DROP RAPIDLY  
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH. THE  
INCREASED CAPE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL PRODUCE SNOW SQUALL  
CONDITIONS WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW, NEAR ZERO VISIBILITY AND  
POSSIBLE FLASH FREEZES ON ROADS AROUND THE REGION. BE AWARE THAT IF  
YOU ENCOUNTER A SNOW SQUALL, WET ROADS CAN QUICKLY FREEZE OVER,  
BECOME VERY TREACHEROUS. DRIVE WITH CARE AND BE PREPARED FOR RAPIDLY  
CHANGING ROAD CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-70  
CORRIDOR. AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH, WINDS WILL SHIFT NORTHWESTERLY  
AND GUST FOR AN HOUR OR SO AS THE COLD AIR POURS INTO THE REGION  
WITH CONDITIONS DRYING OUT. THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL HAVE MOSTLY MOVED  
EAST OF THE DIVIDE BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH ONLY A FEW LINGERING  
SHOWERS IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.  
 
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH FROM THE WEST SATURDAY AFTERNOON  
BRING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION MOSTLY OVER THE HIGHER  
TERRAIN, BUT A FEW SHOWERS MAY MOVE OVER THE VALLEYS. LOOK FOR 3-5  
INCHES SHOW IN THE MOUNTAINS AND LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION IN THE  
VALLEYS.  
 
   
LONG TERM
 
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)  
ISSUED AT 505 AM MST FRI DEC 2 2022  
 
LIGHT OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE NORTHERN  
COLORADO MOUNTAINS IN A FAVORABLE WESTERLY FLOW AS A LEADING  
SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHWARD AHEAD OF A CLOSED LOW PRESSURE  
SYSTEM ENTERING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS AFOREMENTIONED LOW WILL  
DRIVE MOISTURE ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA, PUMMELING THE SIERRAS  
WITH MORE SNOW. SHOWERS LOOK TO COME TO AN END BY SUNDAY MORNING  
AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND  
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST, ALLOWING THE SUB-TROPICAL JET TO ALSO LIFT  
NORTH OF OUR REGION AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING WORKS IN, PROVIDING DRY  
CONDITIONS AND CLEARING SKIES. THE PACNW LOW LOOKS TO DROP  
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN AND BECOME MORE OF AN OPEN WAVE  
AS IT CROSSES THE WESTERN SLOPE ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THIS  
SOUTHWARD PUSH IS DRIVEN BY A LARGE UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER  
NORTHERN MANITOBA AND THE HUDSON BAY IN CANADA, THAT WILL BE  
ROTATING SEVERAL WAVES AROUND IT THROUGH THE UPPER PORTIONS OF THE  
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS. THIS LOW WILL WEAKEN AS IT  
MOVES SOUTHWARD, RESULTING IN LESS FORCING AND SNOWFALL THAN  
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS INDICATED. FOR OUR CWA, A BOUNDARY LOOKS TO  
SET UP MONDAY MORNING ACROSS THE NORTH WITH THIS AREA OF  
PRECIPITATION MOVING SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CORRIDOR  
THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. SO, THIS NEXT EVENT LOOKS TO FAVOR THE  
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COLORADO MOUNTAINS WITH ROUGHLY 4 TO 8 INCHES  
OF SNOW MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.  
 
LATEST MODEL PROJECTIONS HAVE THIS TROUGH RESURRECTING THE CLOSED  
LOW OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BEFORE IT LIFTS BACK THROUGH THE GREAT  
BASIN AND ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AS AN OPEN WAVE TROUGH  
DURING THE MID WEEK TIMEFRAME, WHICH WOULD FAVOR THE SOUTHERN AND  
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. THE GFS SEEMS MORE BULLISH ON THIS THAN THE  
ECMWF, SO CONFIDENCE IN PLACEMENT AND AMOUNTS IS LOWER GIVEN MODEL  
TIMING DIFFERENCES. TEMPERATURES THROUGH NEXT WEEK LOOK TO REMAIN  
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT  
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND THEN DROP TO NEAR NORMAL MID WEEK AND BELOW  
NORMAL LATE IN THE WEEK GIVEN THE PASSAGE OF THESE CONSECUTIVE STORM  
SYSTEMS. THE PATTERN REMAINS ON THE COOLER SIDE AND UNSETTLED.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)  
ISSUED AT 505 AM MST FRI DEC 2 2022  
 
SHOWERS ARE MOVING INTO EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO WITH  
RAIN REPORTED AT KGJT AND KMTJ, AND SNOW AT KVEL, KHDN AND  
KTEX. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING FROM WEST  
TO EAST WITH RAIN TURNING TO SNOW AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS  
THE REGION THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. TAF SITES  
WILL DROP BELOW ILS BREAKPOINTS WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO  
LOW CEILINGS AND POOR VISIBILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN SHOWERS AND  
WILL INCREASE ABOVE THE BREAKPOINTS WITH VFR CONDITIONS AFTER THE  
FRONT PASSES. MOST SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL MOVE EAST OF THE DIVIDE BY  
ABOUT 21Z AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST OUT OF THE REGION. SOUTHWEST  
WINDS GUSTING 35 TO 50 KTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL SHIFT NORTHWEST  
AND DROP OFF BEHIND THE FRONT.  
 

 
   
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR  
COZ001>003-005-008.  
 
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ004-  
009-010-012-013.  
 
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ006-007-011-  
014-020.  
 
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR  
COZ017>019.  
 
UT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR UTZ027-029.  
 
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR UTZ023.  
 

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...DB  
LONG TERM...MDA  
AVIATION...DB  
 
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