061
FXUS65 KGJT 082329
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
529 PM MDT THU MAY 8 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- DAILY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL RATES,
GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS, AND SMALL HAIL AT TIMES.
- TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 302 PM MDT THU MAY 8 2025
THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST WITH THE RIDGE MOVING IN FROM
THE WEST. THERE IS LESS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN SALT LAKES AREA UNDER
THE STRONGER SUBSIDENCE OF THE RIDGE, AND WHILE THE SKIES OVER
EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO HAD CLEARED OUT OVERNIGHT UNDER
THE SUBSIDENCE, STRONG DIURNAL HEATING THIS MORNING QUICKLY OVERCAME
THE INVERSION WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
POPPING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN JUST AFTER NOON TODAY. LOOK FOR
THESE SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND DIMINISHING
GOING TOWARDS SUNSET. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT AGAIN TONIGHT UNDER THE
SUBSIDENCE. MODELS ARE TENDING TO DRY OUT THE LOWER LAYERS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WHICH SHOULD MAKE THE STORM COVERAGE TOMORROW MORE
ISOLATED, BUT THERE ISN'T REALLY ANY FLOW TO MOVE THE MOISTURE
TRAPPED UNDER THE SUBSIDENCE OUT OF THE REGION. HENCE, MASSAGED THE
POP GRIDS TO INCREASE THE COVERAGE TOMORROW TO BE MORE LIKE TODAY.
TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE RUNNING NEAR NORMAL TO A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AREAS AND ABOUT FIVE DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL UP NORTH. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ABOUT FIVE DEGREES
TOMORROW AS THE RIDGE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST RAISING H500
HEIGHTS 20-30M. AREAS OF CONCERN TONIGHT ARE THE LOWEST VALLEYS
ALONG THE UNCOMPAHGRE RIVER AND THE LOWER VALLEYS SOUTH OF THE
SAN JUANS (E.G., CORTEZ, BAYFIELD AND IGNACIO), WHERE FORECAST
TEMPERATURES ARE ARE WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF FREEZING DUE TO
THE RADIATIVE COOLING OVERNIGHT. IF YOU HAVE SENSITIVE PLANTS
OUTSIDE, YOU MAY WANT TO PROTECT THEM JUST IN CASE... SATURDAY
MORNING WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER WITH THE STRENGTHENING
RIDGE OVERHEAD.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 302 PM MDT THU MAY 8 2025
ON SATURDAY THE AXIS OF A BROAD RIDGE STRETCHING ACROSS THE WEST
WILL BE PASSING OVER OUR AREA. WARM AIR ADVECTION OCCURRING WHILE WE
ARE UNDER THE RIDGE WILL RAISE HIGH TEMPERATURES TO WELL ABOVE
NORMAL UNTIL MID NEXT WEEK. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST
DAYS OF THE LONG TERM, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES 5 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL POSSIBLE. AFTER MONDAY TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO DROP BELOW
NORMAL AS COOLER AIR MOVES IN WITH AN APPROACHING TROUGH.
WITH RIDGING ALOFT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION IS NOT IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE LONG TERM. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING A TROUGH MOVING INLAND FROM THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST ON MONDAY. SOME MODELS SEEM TO KEEP MOST OF THE IMPACTS
FROM THIS TROUGH PRIMARILY TO THE NORTH OF OUR CWA, BUT THIS FAR OUT
IN TIME CONFIDENCE IN THIS GUIDANCE IS LOW. ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION IS NOT IN THE FORECAST WHILE RIDGING IS ALOFT,
AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS EACH DAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WHILE DAYTIME HEATING COUPLES WITH LINGERING MOISTURE.
PWATS STAY AROUND 125-150% OF NORMAL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK,
ALTHOUGH AT TIMES IT MAY EXCEED OR FALL BELOW THIS RANGE.
GUSTY AFTERNOON WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE
TROUGH FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST APPROACHES OUR REGION, BRINGING A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND INCREASED WINDSPEEDS ALOFT. THIS,
IN ADDITION TO DRIER AIR MOVING IN MONDAY, COULD CAUSE CONCERNS FOR
FIRE WEATHER.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 529 PM MDT THU MAY 8 2025
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION,
THOUGH IMPACTS ARE MINIMAL. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD WIND DOWN OVER
THE COMING HOURS, LEADING TO A CALM NIGHT AHEAD WITH MID- TO
HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS AND CALM, TERRRAIN-DRIVEN WINDS. PRECIPITATION
MAY BEGIN TO PICK UP AFTER NOON MDT TOMORROW, BUT PROBABILITIES
ARE LOW AT THIS TIME, AND HENCE HAVE NOT BEEN INCLUDED IN THIS
AFTERNOON'S TAF'S.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 221 PM MDT THU MAY 8 2025
WARM TEMPERATURES AND POTENTIAL FOR RAIN-ON-SNOW AT MID TO HIGH
ELEVATIONS (8500' TO 10000') INCREASE THE RISK OF AREAL FLOODING
AND ELEVATED STREAMFLOWS DUE TO RAPID SNOWMELT. FORECAST
TEMPERATURES EXTENDING THROUGH THE WEEKEND ARE EXPECTED TO
EXCEED 5 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY MAY, SUCH THAT
HIGHS RANGE IN THE 60'S TO 70'S ACROSS MID TO HIGH ELEVATIONS.
IN ADDITION, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE DIVIDE
EACH AFTERNOON, WITH PRECIPITATION POTENTIALLY FALLING AS RAIN
AS HIGH AS 10,000'. STREAMS AND TRIBUTARIES ACROSS THE SAN
JUAN'S AND ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE OVER CENTRAL COLORADO
ARE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO SEE THE EFFECTS OF WARMING AND POTENTIAL
RAIN-ON-SNOW ACCELERATING SNOWMELT AND ELEVATING FLOWS. AS A
RESULT, LOW-LYING AREAS AND VALLEY FLOORS ACROSS SAID TERRAIN
COULD SEE SOME MINOR INUNDATION FROM SNOWMELT. STAY AWAY FROM
FAST MOVING WATER, EXERCISE CAUTION NEAR RIVERBANKS AND STAY
ALERT TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
SHORT TERM...DB
LONG TERM...GF
AVIATION...TGJT
HYDROLOGY...ERW
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