405
FXUS65 KGJT 232321
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
521 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND WITH
ISOLATED STORM CHANCES ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN, PRIMARILY ON
SUNDAY.
- A PATTERN SHIFT EARLY IN THE WEEK WILL LEAD TO PRECIPITATION
CHANCES STARTING IN THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF OUR CWA. THUNDERSTORMS
ARE LIKELY MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1059 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2026
QUIET WEEKEND, ACTIVE WORK WEEK:
ASIDE FROM SOME BREEZY WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING
TROUGH, CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO
BE QUIET THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. THOUGH THE PATTERN IS DRIER
THAN AVERAGE, SOME WEAK ELEVATED MOISTURE CAN SUPPORT SOME
ISOLATED CONVECTION ALONG THE HIGH TERRAIN, PARTICULARLY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.
A WETTER PATTERN KICKS IN BEGINNING MONDAY AS A SPLIT-FLOW
PATTERN SETS UP ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW AROUND THE BASE OF A SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA CLOSED LOW WILL
DRAW PACIFIC MOISTURE THROUGH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND INTO OUR
CWA. THOUGH MOISTURE PEAKS ON TUESDAY, BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY
(AND POTENTIALLY EVEN WEDNESDAY) LOOK TO HOLD STRONG CHANCES FOR
WIDESPREAD STORMS. MORNING CLOUD COVER ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY
LOOKS MODEST AT BEST, MEANING WE COULD SEE SOME POCKETS OF
MARGINAL INSTABILITY DEVELOP DURING THESE AFTERNOONS.
DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE PICKING UP ON THIS INSTABILITY, THOUGH
THERE STILL EXISTS A WIDE DISCREPANCY FROM MODEL TO MODEL ON
HOW MUCH CAPE WILL MANIFEST. NONETHELESS, TRENDS ARE FAVORING
SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AT THE VERY LEAST WITH
MORE WIDESPREAD CONCERNS POSSIBLE SHOULD WE TREND TOWARDS THE
MORE UNSTABLE SCENARIO. HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE WILL PROVIDE A
BETTER PICTURE OVER THE NEXT 12-36 HOURS.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT A STRONGER CLOSED LOW WILL DESCEND FROM
THE PACNW, EVENTUALLY DOMINATING THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST ON
WEDNESDAY. THIS FLOW APPEARS TO BE MUCH DRIER IN NATURE, THOUGH
ANY LINGERING POCKETS OF SURFACE MOISTURE WILL STILL BE CAPABLE
OF SUPPORTING SHOWERS ALONG OUR MOUNTAIN RANGES. MODEL
CONSISTENCY QUICKLY DIMINISHES AS THE LOW BUDGES LATE IN THE
WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 521 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2026
HIGH BASED VIRGA/VERY LIGHT SHOWERS COULD BRING A LOW
PROBABILITY OF WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 45 MPH THROUGH 02Z.
OTHERWISE WINDS WILL LIGHT WITH SHOWERS DISSIPATING BY SUNSET. A
FEW STRAY SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON BUT COVERAGE NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO PLACE IN TAF FORECAST ATTM.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BS/TGJT
AVIATION...TGJT
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