978
FXUS65 KGJT 191137
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
437 AM MST FRI DEC 19 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS WHERE 6 TO 12 INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED. THE FLAT
TOPS AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10,000 FEET ALSO HAVE
ADVISORIES FOR 4 TO 6 INCHES.
- WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE FOR THE REGION WITH
RECORD HIGHS POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 321 AM MST FRI DEC 19 2025
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST IS
CURRENTLY THE FOCUS OF SOME PRECIP AND AS IT DROPS SOUTHWARD, SO
TOO WILL THE PRECIP. ALOFT, THE JET STREAM IS SUPPORTING THIS
BOUNDARY AND WILL ALLOW SOME GUSTY WINDS TO MATERIALIZE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN VALLEYS THIS AFTERNOON. MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING
THROUGH THE DAY AND BY LATER THIS EVENING, FAVORABLE
OROGRAPHICS WILL WORK ON THIS MOISTURE AND BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW
TO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. AS WE HEAD TOWARDS MIDNIGHT, THE
BOUNDARY WILL BE ALONG THE CO/WY BORDER AND WILL BRING HEAVIER
SNOW TO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS, FLAT TOPS, AND CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS HAVE REMAINED IN THE 6 TO 12 INCH
RANGE UP NORTH WITH 4 TO 6 INCHES FOR THE FLAT TOPS AND CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10,000 FEET. SOME GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO OCCUR
BRINGING SOME BLOWING SNOW TO THOSE SAME AREAS. FOR THOSE
INDIVIDUALS TRAVELLING OVER RABBIT EARS OR VAIL PASS, BE AWARE
THAT SLICK DRIVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. THE HEAVIEST
SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH NOON SATURDAY
BEFORE SLOWLY TAPERING OFF SATURDAY EVENING. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT BUT NO APPRECIABLE
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN
ISSUED FOR THOSE SAME AREAS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS SNOWFALL.
ELSEWHERE, LOOK FOR MORE CLOUDS FOR THOSE AREAS CLOSER TO THE
MOUNTAINS AND LESS SO FOR AREAS DOWN SOUTH.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE
NORTHERN VALLEYS BUT THE REST OF THE CWA WILL SEE SIMILAR HIGHS
AS WE'LL SEE TODAY FOR BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. ANOTHER IMPULSE
OF ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN VALLEYS AND
MOUNTAINS ON SUNDAY BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN/SNOW
FOR THE VALLEYS/MOUNTAINS.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 321 AM MST FRI DEC 19 2025
THE WEATHER LOOKS TO BE PRETTY QUIET SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MIDWEEK.
AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM A PLUME OF ANOMALOUS MOISTURE (PWATS
AROUND 250% OF NORMAL) WILL BE OVER THE AREA, BUT A LACK OF FORCING
WILL KEEP POPS LOW. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTH, AND A TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN PACIFIC, WILL ALLOW FOR A SHIFT TO WARM, SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW, WITH LITTLE ASSOCIATED FORCING. THEN, DRIER AIR MOVES IN BY
MONDAY NIGHT. SO, EXPECT QUIET WEATHER AND WARM (15 TO 20 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL) HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE MIDWEEK.
ANOMALOUS MOISTURE RETURNS ON WEDNESDAY, AND AS SUCH, UNSETTLED
WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN AS WELL. THIS MOISTURE ADVECTS INTO
THE REGION WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OFF OF THE TROUGH IN THE PACIFIC.
BOTH THE ECMWF ENS AND GFS ENS AGREE THAT PWAT ANOMALIES PEAK LATE
WEDNESDAY AROUND AT LEAST 200% OF NORMAL. HOWEVER, THE ECMWF ENS
SEEMS TO FAVOR A STRONGER MOISTURE PLUME OVER A LONGER PERIOD OF
TIME. SO, THE FORECAST COULD CHANGE DEPENDING ON WHICH SCENARIO THE
MODELS SETTLE ON, BUT REGARDLESS IT SEEMS LIKE A WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION EVENT IS POSSIBLE BEGINNING CHRISTMAS EVE. DAYTIME
HIGHS WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE REGION, POSSIBLY REACHING
ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES EVEN IN SOME OF THE HIGHEST TERRAIN. SO,
THIS LEAVES SOME UNCERTAINTY ON SNOW LEVELS AND SNOW RATIOS, IN
ADDITION TO THE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING MOISTURE AMOUNTS.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 433 AM MST FRI DEC 19 2025
HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. STRONGER
WINDS ALOFT ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE LLWS FOR MANY TAF SITES. SOME
OF THESE WINDS WILL REACH TO THE SURFACE BRINGING SOME WESTERLY
GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KTS AT TIMES. SOME CEILINGS MAY REACH AROUND
10K FEET LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT MST
SATURDAY NIGHT FOR COZ004-010-013.
UT...NONE.
SHORT TERM...TGR
LONG TERM...GF
AVIATION...TGJT
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page