592
FXUS65 KGJT 300423
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
923 PM MST MON DEC 29 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
RETURNING TO THE FORECAST TUESDAY.
- UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS TO THE FORECAST BEGINNING THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 154 PM MST MON DEC 29 2025
THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN CLEAR AND CALM
ACROSS THE CWA, AND THIS LOOKS TO BE THE FORECAST THROUGH MOST
OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WHILE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPS
OVER THE WEST. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO OUR AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A MOISTURE PUSH EXPECTED LATER THIS WEEK.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WARM TO AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
TOMORROW, AND THIS WARMTH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE LONG TERM.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 154 PM MST MON DEC 29 2025
THE RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY, RESULTING IN OUR
MILDEST DAY OF THE WEEK THUS FAR WITH HIGHS AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL ON AVERAGE WITH DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUING. MOISTURE MOVES IN
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS AN OPEN WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA, WITH PWAT ANOMALIES INCREASING TO 200 TO 300 PERCENT OF
NORMAL...WHICH AMOUNTS TO PWAT BETWEEN 0.5 AND 0.6 INCHES. WHAT IS
CONCERNING IS THE TEMPERATURES WHICH ARE STILL FAIRLY MILD WITH THIS
MOISTURE, GETTING DOWN TO THE 0C TO -3C RANGE AT H7 AT BEST. THERE
IS NOT MUCH DYNAMIC FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM EITHER AS THE JET STAYS
SOUTH OF THE REGION, SO SNOWFALL RATES AT THIS TIME APPEAR ON THE
LIGHTER SIDE FOR THE MOUNTAINS WITH OROGRAPHICS BEING THE MAIN
DRIVER. DETAILS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN WITH REGARDS TO HOW HIGH SNOW
LEVELS WILL BE SINCE WE ARE LACKING THE DEEP COLD AIR NEEDED FOR
PRODUCTIVE SNOWFALL. MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS SHOULD REMAIN RAIN
THROUGHOUT THIS EVENT WITH SNOW LEVELS AT THIS TIME VARYING BETWEEN
8KFT AND 9KFT ALTHOUGH SNOW LEVELS POTENTIALLY COULD BE HIGHER AT
TIMES WHICH COMPLICATES THE FORECAST. RIDGING MOVES OVERHEAD BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM FOR THE COMING WEEKEND, BRINGING A RETURN TO DRY
CONDITIONS AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALTHOUGH WE NEVER
REALLY COOL DOWN MUCH IN THE FIRST PLACE...MAYBE BY ABOUT 5 DEGREES
COOLER ON THURSDAY AS THIS MOISTURE PASSES THROUGH BEFORE WARMING
BACK UP TO 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THIS COMING WEEKEND.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 920 PM MST MON DEC 29 2025
CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THIS PERIOD. WINDS REMAIN
LIGHT, BUT A FEW VALLEY LOCALES, INCLUDING KHDN AND KGJT WILL
SEE STRONGER DRAINAGE WINDS OVERNIGHT, THEN LIGHTEN UP BY MID
DAY TUESDAY.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
SHORT TERM...GF
LONG TERM...MDA
AVIATION...TGJT
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