041
FXUS65 KGJT 291117
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
517 AM MDT WED JUL 29 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MORE STORMS ON TAP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH AN
UPTICK IN ACTIVITY AND COVERAGE EXPECTED.
- LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVER BURN
SCARS AND STEEP TERRAIN. GUSTY WINDS, LIGHTNING, AND SMALL
HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
- HOT AND PREDOMINATELY DRY CONDITIONS MOVE IN FOR THE WEEKEND
AND BEYOND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 916 PM MDT TUE JUL 28 2026
THERE IS A CHANGE ON THE HORIZON BUT NOT UNTIL WE GET AT LEAST
ONE MORE DAY OF ACTIVE AND WIDESPREAD CONVECTION. THE DIFFERENCE
TODAY WILL BE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH AND
BRING INCREASED LIFT ACROSS THE AREA. EVERYTHING ELSE REMAINS IN
PLACE...THE MOISTURE, THE INSTABILITY, ALL THE THINGS. AS THE
WAVE MOVES THROUGH, CONVECTION WILL BECOME MORE SCATTERED TO
WIDESPREAD. AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED, STORM MOTIONS SHOULD BE
SOMEWHAT FASTER THAN SEEN RECENTLY. DESPITE THAT, LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY OVER VULNERABLE TERRAIN
AND BURN SCARS. SMALL HAIL, GUSTY WINDS, AND LIGHTNING REMAIN A
CONCERN AS WELL.
BEHIND THE AFORMENTIONED SHORTWAVE, DRY AIR BEINGS TO FILTER
BACK INTO THE REGION. IT WILL TAKE A FEW DAYS BEFORE RESIDUAL
MOISTURE IS COMPLETELY SCRUBBED FROM THE ATMOSPHERE SO WE CAN
EXPECT SOME CONVECTION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH COVERAGE
DECREASING EACH DAY. AS THINGS DRY OUT, THE PRIMARY THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL SWITCH FROM HEAVY RAINFALL TO GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS UP TO 50 MPH.
HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP OVER UTAH THIS WEEKEND BRINGING HOT AND
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN AROUND 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL, BUT WITH LESS MOISTURE IN THE AIR, YOU CAN EXPECT
MORE OF A "DRY HEAT" COMPARED TO WHAT WE'VE ENDURED LATELY.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 513 AM MDT WED JUL 29 2026
STORMS REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME
WIDESPREAD, IMPACTING MOST TERMINALS. CNY AND VEL ARE THE ONLY
TWO TERMINALS UNLIKELY TO SEE ANY RAINFALL, THOUGH OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES MAY STILL PASS OVER THESE TERMINALS. CONFIDENCE IS
LOW AT DRO ON THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION, BUT A PROB30 HAS
BEEN INTRODUCED HERE. ALL OTHER TERMINALS ACROSS THE WEST SLOPE
HAVE HIGHER POTENTIAL TO SEE RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON. ERRATIC
OUTFLOW WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 25 KTS, BUT A FEW
ISOLATED 40-45 KT WINDS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. STRONG STORMS MAY
THREATEN TO DROP CIGS BELOW ILS BREAKPOINTS AND VIS TO MVFR
CONDITIONS, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON WHEN, WHERE, AND IF THIS
WILL OCCUR, AND SO THESE SCENARIOS HAVE NOT BEEN INCLUDED IN ANY
TAF'S AT THIS TIME.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 1130 PM MDT TUE JUL 28 2026
SCATTERED SLOW-MOVING THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK.
RAINFALL RATES OF 1-2" PER HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE, POTENTIALLY
EVEN GREATER FOR BRIEF PERIODS OF TIME WITH STRONGER STORMS.
THESE RATES COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING AND DEBRIS FLOWS,
ESPECIALLY OVER STEEP TERRAIN AND RECENT BURN SCARS. SATURATED
SOILS FROM CONSECUTIVE DAYS FOR RAINFALL WILL INCREASE THE
POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING AS WELL.
AS A REMINDER: KEEP AN EYE ON OUR FORECASTS AND STAY TUNED FOR
UPDATED HYDROLOGY ALERTS IF VISITING OR IF YOU RESIDE NEAR
TERRAIN VULNERABLE TO FLASH FLOODING AND/OR DEBRIS FLOWS. DRY
CREEKS AND ARROYOS CAN FILL QUICKLY AND WITHOUT WARNING FROM
STORMS MILES AWAY.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...TGJT
AVIATION...TGJT
HYDROLOGY...TGJT
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