832
FXUS65 KGJT 151120
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
520 AM MDT WED JUL 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- EXPECT TERRAIN-BASED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON
THIS WEEK, FAVORING THE SAN JUANS, BUT SPREADING NORTH BY THE
WEEKEND.
- FLASH FLOODING ON BURN SCARS WILL BE POSSIBLE WHERE THERE IS
LOCALIZED HEAVIER RAINFALL.
- DAYTIME HIGHS COOL THROUGHOUT THE WEEK, RETURNING TO NEAR-
NORMAL FOR MOST AREAS BY FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1052 PM MDT TUE JUL 14 2026
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH BROAD HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION
BRINGING CLEAR SKIES TO MUCH OF THE CONUS EAST OF THE ROCKIES, AND
LOW PRESSURE CIRCULATION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES UNDER PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. TO THE WEST A DEEP PLUME OF MOISTURE HAS PUSHED
NORTH AROUND THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE HIGH INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST. SOME OF THIS MOISTURE IS WORKING EAST IN UNDER THE HIGH TO
PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO FAVORING THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE
SOUTH AND WEST. LOOK FOR THIS MOISTURE TO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WORK
ITS WAY INTO THE REGION WITH CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SPREADING FARTHER
NORTH AND EAST INTO THE MOUNTAINS EACH DAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK. WE CAN EXPECT TO SEE PWATS ABOVE AN INCH ACROSS EASTERN
UTAH AND MUCH OF WESTERN COLORADO BY SATURDAY. OF CONCERN IS THAT
THESE AFTERNOON STORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVING DUE TO THE WEAK FLOW
ALOFT UNDER THE HIGH WHICH INCREASES THE RISKS FOR HIGHER AMOUNTS OF
RAINFALL POSSIBLE ON RECENT FIRE SCARS, ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN
MOUNTAINS WHERE THE MOISTURE IS DEEPEST. STAY TUNED FOR FORECAST
UPDATES ON THESE AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS,
AND BE ALERT TO THE WEATHER AND ANY WEATHER WARNINGS IF YOU ARE IN
THE AREA OF A RECENT FIRE.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS INCREASING CLOUDS
LIMIT DIURNAL HEATING AND AFTERNOON SHOWERS COOL THE REGION.
TOMORROW WILL HAVE HIGHS FIVE TO TEN DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS WHILE THE SOUTHERN AREAS WILL CONTINUE TO
RUN NEAR NORMAL. THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY BE NEAR NORMAL ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION TO ABOUT FIVE
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS AS THE MOISTURE
PUSHES NORTH. GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES IN TO
COOL TEMPERATURES ANOTHER FIVE DEGREES GOING INTO MID NEXT WEEK WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON, THE PEAK
OF DIURNAL HEATING. AT A WEEK OUT IT'S A STRETCH, BUT WE CAN ALWAYS
HOPE...
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 518 AM MDT WED JUL 15 2026
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS AND OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES CONTINUE TO DRIFT
THROUGH THE AREA WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME ISOLATED LIGHT
SHOWERS THIS MORNING. VFR PREVAILS AND THIS WILL CONTINUE OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MVFR CONDITIONS HAVE A LOW PROBABILITY OF
OCCURRING TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS AN UPTICK IN THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY...WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL RATES...OCCURS OVER
THE SOUTHERN CWA...INCLUDING THE KTEX...KGUC AND KDRO AIRFIELDS.
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM STORMS COULD CREATE A DIFFICULT WIND
FORECAST THROUGH THE EVENING QUICKLY CHANGING DIRECTIONS AND
SPEEDS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DB
AVIATION...TGJT
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