472
FXUS65 KGJT 010602
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1202 AM MDT WED JUL 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ABATE THIS WEEKEND, AS WINDS
LIGHTEN AND TEMPERATURES SURGE BACK ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
- HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST WITH LITTLE CHANCE FOR WETTING
RAINS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 935 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2026
THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE LONGWAVE PATTERN THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK, AS TROUGHING DOMINATES THE WEST AND RIDGING TO THE EAST.
THIS KEEPS EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO UNDER BREEZY
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. AFTERNOON GUSTS OF 20-30 MPH ARE EXPECTED DAILY.
PASSING SHORTWAVES WILL BRING PERIODS OF HIGHER WIND GUSTS, 25-35
MPH, WITH LOCALLY UP TO 40 MPH. ADDITIONALLY, THESE WAVES WILL HAVE
JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE WITH THEM TO CREATE A FEW VIRGA SHOWERS OR DRY
THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHEASTERN UTAH, RAISING THE CONCERN FOR
LIGHTNING STARTS. SURFACE LEVELS REMAIN EXTREMELY DRY, WITH DAYTIME
MINIMUM HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS, AND THE LOW TEENS HIGHER UP. AS A RESULT, CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS REMAIN WITH US THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF THE
WEEK. RED FLAG WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 9PM WEDNESDAY,
WITH FIRE WEATHER WATCHES IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 9PM THURSDAY.
THE SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL KEEP OUR
TEMPERATURES AT OR A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. HOWEVER, BY THE WEEKEND FLOW ALOFT BEGINS TO SHIFT ZONAL AS
HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD INTO THE SOUTHWEST. WINDS WILL FINALLY
RELAX, AND TEMPERATURES WILL JUMP TO AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
IN RESPONSE. THERE ARE HINTS THAT SOME SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL
WORK ITS WAY NORTHWARD UNDER THE HIGH BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, HOWEVER
THE OVERALL PATTERN ISN'T THAT FAVORABLE FOR A GOOD TAP OF DEEP
MOISTURE. WITH THE HIGH DIRECTLY OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST, MOISTURE
IS MORE LIKELY TO REACH AREAS TO OUR EAST AND WEST. AND WITH DRY
SURFACE CONDITIONS STILL IN PLACE, VIRGA SHOWERS, GUSTY WINDS, AND
DRY THUNDERSTORMS ARE MORE LIKELY THAT ANY SUBSTANTIAL WETTING
RAIN.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1200 AM MDT WED JUL 1 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, HOWEVER
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR VISIBILITY CANNOT BE RULED OUT DUE TO
SMOKE FROM ACTIVE WILDFIRES ACROSS THE REGION. THIS AFTERNOON,
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 25 KNOTS AT MOST
TERMINALS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 935 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2026
RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY BEFORE THE
STAGNANT TROUGH DRIVING THE DRY AND WINDY SETUP FINALLY APPEARS TO
BREAK DOWN INTO MORE ZONAL FLOW WITH WEAKER WINDS INTO THE WEEKEND.
FOR MOST DAYS, FIRE WEATHER APPEARS MARGINAL TO MODERATE WITH SINGLE-
DIGIT RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND GUSTS AROUND 25-35 MPH. A SERIES OF
WEAKER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES COULD TOUCH OFF SOME DRY
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST UT AND NORTHWEST CO THIS WEEK. WHILE
THIS REMAINS A VERY ISOLATED CHANCE, THE PERSISTENT CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER PATTERN WILL LEND A HAND TO LIGHTNING STARTED WILDFIRES THIS
WEEK. WETTING RAINS REMAIN HIGHLY UNLIKELY THROUGH THE WEEK.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
COZ203-205-207-290>295.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR COZ205-207-290>295.
UT...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
UTZ491.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR UTZ491.
DISCUSSION...BGB/TGJT
AVIATION...TGJT
FIRE WEATHER...TGJT
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