852
FXUS65 KGJT 141758
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1158 AM MDT SAT MAR 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST VALLEYS
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WITH GUSTS EXCEEDING 70 MPH OVER THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. STRONG GUSTS CONTINUE OVER THE SOUTHERN
VALLEYS TOMORROW.
- A RAPID DROP IN TEMPERATURES, STRONG WINDS, AND LIGHT SNOW
IMPACT THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COLORADO MOUNTAINS TONIGHT.
HAZARDOUS TRAVEL IS EXPECTED OVER MOUNTAIN PASSES.
- THERE IS A FROST/FREEZE RISK FOR THE LOWER VALLEYS SUNDAY
NIGHT AS TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE LOW 20S TO LOW 30S.
- HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS DOMINATE NEXT WEEK'S FORECAST.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1135 AM MDT SAT MAR 14 2026
NO BIG CHANGES TO THIS WEEKEND'S FORECAST WITH STRONG WINDS
CONTINUING TO BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN. WE EXTENDED THE HIGH WIND
WARNING IN NORTHEAST UTAH TO INCLUDE THE EASTERN UINTA BASIN AND
ADDED A FEW MOUNTAIN ZONES TO THE WIND ADVISORY IN NORTHWEST
COLORADO, BUT OVERALL THE MESSAGING REMAINS THE SAME.
A FAST-MOVING TROUGH WILL DROP INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THIS
EVENING. WIND GUSTS INCREASE ALONG AND NORTH OF I-70 AS THIS
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES, BUT THEY WILL BE PARTICULARLY STRONG
TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH. WINDS LOOK TO GUSTS IN
THE 40 TO 55 MPH RANGE OVER MOST OF OUR LOWER VALLEYS WITH GUSTS
OF 55 TO 75 MPH OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
LIMITED MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR MOST,
BUT THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL DIVIDE MOUNTAINS WILL SEE A COUPLE
QUICK INCHES OF SNOW WITH BLOWING SNOW (REDUCED VISIBILITY)
EXPECTED TO BE MORE IMPACTFUL THAN THE ACCUMULATION ITSELF. A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT TONIGHT WITH TRAVEL
IMPACTS OVER RABBIT EAR PASS AND VAIL PASS BEING OUR PRIMARY
WINTER WEATHER CONCERNS.
THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS USUALLY GET QUITE WINDY IN THE POST-
FRONTAL REGIME WE ARE EXPECTING TOMORROW, SO WIND ADVISORIES
WILL CONTINUE IN THESE AREAS THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
ELSEWHERE, BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES HIGHLIGHT SUNDAY'S FORECAST
IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. AS WINDS SUBSIDE AND
TEMPERATURES COOL, THE LOWER VALLEYS HAVE A HIGH LIKELIHOOD
(>75%) OF SEEING SUB- FREEZING TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING. TAKE PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT SENSITIVE
VEGETATION!
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1135 AM MDT SAT MAR 14 2026
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND MONDAY AFTER THE BRIEF COLD
SNAP SUNDAY, RISING ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES FROM SUNDAY'S HIGHS
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. THE
PATTERN WILL TRANSITION AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE WEST AND
THE JET SLOWLY EXITS, BUT REMAINS OVERHEAD. WE WILL SEE ONE LAST
JET STREAK MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW LATE MONDAY MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON, PROVIDING FOR SOME LIGHT OROGRAPHIC SNOW
OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS ALONG THE DIVIDE. AT THIS TIME,
AMOUNTS APPEAR NEGLIGIBLE WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF IMPACT DUE
TO THE DRIER AIR MOVING IN.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD TO THE WEST AND MOVE EASTWARD
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND GREAT BASIN, EXPANDING ACROSS
THE WESTERN SLOPE BY MID TO LATE WEEK. DRY CONDITIONS REMAIN
THROUGH THE COMING WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES SOARING TO WELL
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. BY MID TO LATE WEEK, WE WILL SEE HIGHS
RISING TO AROUND 20 TO 25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THIS EQUATES TO
HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S FOR THE LOWER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
VALLEYS, 70S FOR THE HIGHER VALLEYS AND 60S FOR THE MOUNTAIN
TOWNS. IT'S SAFE TO SAY THAT MANY AREAS COULD SEE HIGHS
APPROACHING OR EXCEEDING RECORD HIGHS IN THIS PATTERN AND SUCH A
WARMUP DRAWS CONCERNS FOR ACCELERATED SNOWMELT IF THIS PATTERN
HOLDS BEYOND THE COMING WEEK. THE PROBABILITY OF SNOWMELT
RUNOFF ISSUES APPEARS LOW AT THIS TIME HOWEVER, BUT SOMETHING TO
KEEP IN MIND AS THE FORECAST EVOLVES.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1135 AM MDT SAT MAR 14 2026
STRONG, GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD. GUSTS OF 25-35 KNOTS WILL BE
COMMON FROM 18Z TO 00Z BEFORE A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE BETWEEN 00Z
AND 06Z BRINGS STRONGER GUSTS UP TO 50 KNOTS POSSIBLE.
LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP ALONG THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL DIVIDE BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z, AND LINGER THROUGH 12Z. THIS
WILL MAINLY IMPACT KHDN, KEGE, AND KASE. PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER 06Z DUE TO SNOW AND STRONG
WINDS REDUCING VIS.
GUSTY WINDS BEGIN TO SUBSIDE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BETWEEN 15Z
AND 18Z SUNDAY MORNING.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MDT SUNDAY FOR COZ001>003-005>008-011-
013.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM MDT
SUNDAY FOR COZ004-010.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MDT SUNDAY FOR COZ014-021-022.
UT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MDT SUNDAY FOR UTZ025-027.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 AM MDT SUNDAY FOR UTZ023-024.
SHORT TERM...KAA
LONG TERM...MDA
AVIATION...TGJT
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