913
FXUS65 KGJT 210557
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1157 PM MDT WED MAY 20 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH SOME
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FOR THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS
THURSDAY.
- RED FLAG WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR EAST-CENTRAL UTAH AND
WEST-SOUTWEST COLORADO FROM 1PM-7PM THURSDAY.
- DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND WITH A RETURN
TOWARDS WARM, ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 915 PM MDT WED MAY 20 2026
WE CONTINUE TO BE SITUATED UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL
SLOWLY BEGIN TO TRACK EASTWARD BY THE END OF THE WEEK, GIVING WAY TO
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. IN THE MEANTIME, TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER
AT OR BELOW NORMAL FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS, BEFORE WARMING TO ABOVE
NORMAL BY SUNDAY. IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION, THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL
SEE THE BEST CHANCE (50-70%) FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH SOME
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF OUR CWA.
ALTHOUGH, ACCUMULATIONS APPEAR TO BE QUITE MINIMAL. AS THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSH THROUGH THE AREA INTO THURSDAY
EVENING, PRECIPITATION CHANCES HAVE THE ABILITY TO SPREAD FURTHER
SOUTH ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. ADDITIONALLY,
AS A RESULT OF THIS SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH, GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
PRESENT. GUSTS WILL GENERALLY FALL WITHIN THE 25-30 MPH RANGE, WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
EXIST FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON, REFER TO THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION FOR
MORE ON THAT. FRIDAY WILL BE MOSTLY DRY FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE WITH A CHANCE (30%) FOR LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS DUE TO LINGERING MOISTURE.
THE WEEKEND AND BEYOND:
AS WE MOVE INTO MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND, CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE QUITE
PLEASANT AS THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO
SITUATE ITSELF OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED,
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH THIS
RIDGE. DUE TO SOME LINGERING ENERGY AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE,
AFTERNOON CONVECTION COULD BE SUPPORTED EACH DAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, FAVORING THE HIGHER TERRAIN. BEYOND SUNDAY, ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
GIVING WAY TO INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR OUR AREA MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1141 PM MDT WED MAY 20 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING ACROSS THE REGION WITH
LIGHT TERRAIN INFLUENCED WINDS. THURSDAY, A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL DIP SOUTH TO AROUND THE I-70 CORRIDOR, BRINGING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE CHANCE FOR BREAKPOINT
CEILINGS TO KVEL, KHDN, KRIL, KEGE, AND KASE. WINDS WILL PICK UP
BRISKLY AHEAD OF THE TROUGH, GUSTING TO AROUND 35 MPH IN SPOTS
WITH WIDESPREAD GUSTS OF 25-30 MPH. SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID AND
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL STREAM THROUGH THE REGION OUTSIDE OF THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY FAVORING NORTHEAST UT AND NORTHWEST CO. THIS
FAST MOVING TROUGH WILL LIKELY YIELD TO VFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY
EVENING AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO CLOSE OUT THIS PERIOD
FOR MOST TERMINALS. KHDN LOOKS TO REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
SHOWER ACTIVITY INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 915 PM MDT WED MAY 20 2026
A FRONTAL PASSAGE ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRAVERSE
THE AREA THURSDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE WINDS TO INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE
AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON LEADING TO WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS FOR EAST-CENTRAL UTAH AND WEST-SOUTHWEST COLORADO. RED
FLAG WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE AREAS (UT ZONE 490 AND CO
ZONE 290) FROM 1PM-7PM THURSDAY. LOCALIZED CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE, BUT CONDITIONS WILL NOT MEET RED
FLAG CRITERIA.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM TO 7 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR COZ290.
UT...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM TO 7 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR UTZ490.
DISCUSSION...BS/TGJT
AVIATION...TGJT
FIRE WEATHER...BS
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