391
FXUS65 KGJT 312036
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
236 PM MDT SUN MAY 31 2020
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 228 PM MDT SUN MAY 31 2020
SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN A FAIRLY MOIST LOW-LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT WITH ADDITIONAL DYNAMICAL LIFT PROVIDED BY AN
ASSOCIATED JET ALOFT. THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE DISSIPATING OVERNIGHT. THE
MAIN IMPACT WILL BE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS, LIGHTNING, AND BRIEF
HEAVY RAIN WITH THESE FAST-MOVING STORMS. AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES
EAST INTO MONTANA ON MONDAY THE FOCUS OF THE CONVECTION WILL SHIFT
SLIGHTLY SOUTH OVER THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT ISOLATED-SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO FIRE BY LATE MORNING WITH THE BEST
FOCUS ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA BEFORE DIMINISHING DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
LOCALIZED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN
NORTHEASTERN UTAH AND NORTHWESTERN COLORADO DUE TO DRY AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS AS DETAILED IN THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 PM MDT SUN MAY 31 2020
ZONAL FLOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHERN STATES WITH A CLOSED LOW
OFF OF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST BY TUESDAY MORNING. A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER OUR FORECAST
AREA THROUGH MOST OF THE WORK WEEK. MOISTURE WILL UNDERCUT THE RIDGE
ON TUESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF LATE-DAY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE SOUTH AND ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. OTHERWISE, EXPECT
DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
LATE-DAY STORMS POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MODEL-MODEL
CONSISTENCY IS LOW AFTER WEDNESDAY WITH THE TRACK AND EVOLUTION OF
THE EJECTING CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. WE WILL TAKE A
CONSENSUS APPROACH WITH AN INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY. A BROAD TROUGH
WILL MOVE OVER THE WESTERN STATES BY THE WEEKEND BRINGING DRIER AND
AN INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION WITH POSSIBLE FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS RETURNING ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEASONABLY WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MORE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
RETURNING BY THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1051 AM MDT SUN MAY 31 2020
VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
WITH AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN FORMING IN THE
HEAT OF THE DAY. WINDS OVER 25 MPH WILL BE LIKELY AT KCNY AS THE
GENERAL GRADIENT WILL BE TIGHTENING. STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS AS WELL AS BRIEF MVFR CONDITONS.
THIS ACTIVITY COULD LINGER OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY AT KDRO, KTEX AND
KGUC.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 228 PM MDT SUN MAY 31 2020
UNSTABLE CONDITIONS DUE TO MOIST ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS HAVE LED
TO ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THERE WILL BE A SMALL AREA OF RED FLAG CONDITIONS
THIS AFTERNOON IN ZONE 490 AS DRIER AIR TEMPORARILY MIXES DOWN.
MOISTURE WILL BE BETTER FOCUSED ACROSS THE SOUTH ON MONDAY WITH
DRIER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTH WITH LOCALIZED RED FLAG
CONDITIONS IN ZONE 200 IN COLORADO AND 487 IN EASTERN UTAH DUE TO
LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS. A PATTERN OF LATE-
DAY SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE WORK WEEK
BEFORE A SYSTEM LIFTS THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND BRINGS A
BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY...WITH WETTING RAINFALL A GOOD POSSIBILITY. SOUTHWEST
FLOW IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AHEAD OF A STORM SYSTEM OVER THE
WESTERN US AND BRING GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND HEIGHTENED FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...NONE.
UT...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR UTZ490.
SHORT TERM...MPM
LONG TERM...MPM
AVIATION...TGJT
FIRE WEATHER...TGJT
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