689
FXUS65 KGJT 231141
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
541 AM MDT THU APR 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON
THROUGH THIS WEEK.
- LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE UINTAS AND NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. VIRGA SHOWERS COULD
EXACERBATE WIND CONCERNS.
- COOLER AND UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 534 AM MDT THU APR 23 2026
A FREEZE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE VALLEYS FORECASTED TO
SEE SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. TAKE STEPS
TO PROTECT TENDER PLANTS FROM THE COLD.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1054 PM MDT WED APR 22 2026
DRY AND WINDY THROUGH FRIDAY:
DESPITE THE SYNOPTIC FORCING MOVING THROUGH OUR AREA FROM A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM, WHICH IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS ROCKY
MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE GREAT PLAINS, ANOMALOUSLY DRY AIR IS
LIMITING PRECIPITATION. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS ACTIVITY IN
NORTHWEST COLORADO NEAR THE WYOMING BORDER, BUT TRAFFIC CAMERAS
SUGGEST THIS IS LIKELY JUST VIRGA. THIS OBSERVATION ALIGNS WITH
OUR 00Z SOUNDING, WHICH SHOWS VERY DRY CONDITIONS IN THE LOWER
ATMOSPHERE. A BAND OF VORTICITY AND A COLD FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH THE CWA TONIGHT, WHICH MAY BE ENOUGH FORCING WHEN
COMBINED WITH OROGRAPHIC LIFT TO PROMOTE SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, THE DRY SURFACE
CONDITIONS KEEP QPF VERY LOW.
ALTHOUGH THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS NOT BEEN A BIG
PRECIPITATION PRODUCER FOR OUR AREA, IT DOES CONTINUE TO BRING
STRONG WINDS TO THE REGION THANKS TO INCREASED WINDS ALOFT AND A
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT. AFTER SUNSET WINDS WEAKENED, BUT
GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH STILL PERSIST IN SOME AREAS. STRONG
AFTERNOON WIND GUSTS RETURN DAILY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK
WHILE STRONGER WINDS REMAIN OVERHEAD, ALTHOUGH GUSTS WILL
GENERALLY BE AT A LESSER MAGNITUDE THAN WHAT WAS OBSERVED TODAY.
THE ANOMALOUSLY DRY AIRMASS IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE
UNTIL SATURDAY. THIS WILL KEEP RH VALUES ON THE LOWER SIDE IN
SOME AREAS THROUGH THE WORKWEEK. THE DRY CONDITIONS AND STRONG
AFTERNOON WIND GUSTS RAISE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ON FRIDAY,
PARTICULARLY WHERE THESE WEATHER CONDITIONS MIGHT COINCIDE WITH
CRITICAL FUELS IN NORTHWEST COLORADO.
MOISTURE RETURNS THIS WEEKEND:
MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARDS WIDESPREAD VALLEY RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW THIS WEEKEND. MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO ADVECT
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AS A LOW OFF OF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA
MOVES ONSHORE. THIS LOW LOOKS TO EVENTUALLY BECOME ABSORBED INTO
THE FLOW AROUND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR NORTH, BUT AS IT
MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN THE LOW SHOULD BRING INCREASED
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TO OUR AREA. SOME MODELS HAVE THE LEFT EXIT
REGION OF THE JET POSITIONED NEAR THE SOUTHERN PART OF OUR CWA
THIS WEEKEND. THE JET SUPPORT, IN ADDITION TO ENERGY ASSOCIATED
WITH THE PASSING SYSTEM, COULD SUPPLY A SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF
FORCING FOR PRECIPITATION. AS WE GET CLOSER TO THIS WEEKEND IT
WILL BE WORTH WATCHING HOW THE MODELS CONTINUE TO POSITION THIS
JET.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 534 AM MDT THU APR 23 2026
GUSTY WINDS HIGHLIGHT TODAY'S TAFS. AFTERNOON GUSTS UP TO 30
KNOTS ARE EXPECTED AT MANY TERMINALS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE
(<20%) OF SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHER MOUNTAINS AS WELL. ILS CIGS
ARE POSSIBLE FROM TIME TO TIME, ALTHOUGH PROLONGED IMPACTS ARE
NOT ANTICIPATED.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM MDT FRIDAY FOR COZ001-002-007-
008-021>023.
UT...NONE.
UPDATE...KAA
DISCUSSION...GF
AVIATION...TGJT
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