141  
FGUS74 KMRX 071501  
ESFMRX  
NCC039-043-TNC001-007-009-011-013-019-025-029-057-059-063-065-067-  
073-089-091-093-105-107-115-121-123-129-139-143-145-151-153-155-163-  
171-173-179-VAC105-167-169-191-195-520-720-090000-  
 
PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN  
1000 AM EST THU MAR 7 2019 /900 AM CST THU MAR 7 2019/  
   
..THE 2019 SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK FOR EAST TENNESSEE
 
 
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...  
   
..FLOOD RISK IS ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE FORECAST AREA
 
 
INTRODUCTION...  
 
THIS IS THE 2019 SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK ISSUED BY THE  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MORRISTOWN, TENNESSEE FOR EAST  
TENNESSEE, SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA, AND EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN NORTH  
CAROLINA. THIS ISSUANCE OUTLINES CURRENT RIVER AND SOIL MOISTURE  
CONDITIONS AND HIGHLIGHTS POTENTIAL SITUATIONS THAT WOULD INDUCE  
FLOODING OR EXACERBATE DROUGHT.  
 
IN SUMMARY, THE 2019 SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL IS ABOVE AVERAGE.  
 
THE FOLLOWING SECTIONS DESCRIBE PAST AND CURRENT CONDITIONS AND  
FUTURE EXPECTATIONS.  
 
SNOW PACK...  
 
A WARM AND WET FEBRUARY MADE SNOW PACK MINIMAL. RECENT SNOW SHOWERS  
HAVE PLACED A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.  
 
PRECIPITATION...  
 
IT WAS THE WETTEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD FOR MUCH OF THE AREA, WHICH  
CONTRIBUTED TO THIS BEING ONE OF OUR WETTEST WINTERS OVERALL.  
 
FEBRUARY RAINFALL WAS SIX TO NINE INCHES ABOVE NORMAL FOR MANY  
LOCATIONS. PUT ANOTHER WAY, FEBRUARY PRECIPITATION WAS 200 PERCENT  
TO 300 PERCENT OF NORMAL.  
 
OVERALL WINTER PRECIPITATION FROM DECEMBER THROUGH FEBRUARY RANGED  
BETWEEN 150 PERCENT AND 250 PERCENT OF NORMAL. WINTER PRECIPITATION  
WAS TEN TO TWELVE INCHES ABOVE NORMAL IN MANY PLACES.  
 
TEMPERATURES...  
 
DECEMBER TEMPERATURES AVERAGED 2 TO 3 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. JANUARY  
WAS ONLY A DEGREE ABOVE NORMAL. FEBRUARY BROUGHT A FEW DAYS OF  
RECORD WARMTH, AND THE MONTH AS A WHOLE AVERAGED 5 TO 6 DEGREES  
ABOVE NORMAL. ON THE WHOLE, THE WINTER AVERAGED 3 TO 4 DEGREES ABOVE  
NORMAL.  
 
DROUGHT...  
 
NONE.  
 
SOIL MOISTURE...  
 
THE RECORD FEBRUARY RAINFALL HAS CAUSED SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS TO  
BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL. AREAS OF STANDING WATER ARE STILL APPARENT.  
 
STREAMFLOWS...  
 
OVER THE LAST TWO WEEKS, SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL HAS OCCURRED OVER THE  
TENNESSEE VALLEY WITH 4 TO 8 INCHES OF RAIN FALLING OVER THE AREA.  
SOIL MOISTURE AND STREAMFLOWS REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL. FORTUNATELY,  
AREA STREAMS HAVE RECEDED FROM THE PREVIOUS RAINS, AND NO FLOODING  
IS OCCURRING AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER, RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT SEVEN  
DAYS COULD CAUSE SOME MINOR FLOODING OVER THE BASIN.  
 
STREAMFLOWS AS A PERCENT OF DAILY NORMAL ARE GIVEN FOR RIVER POINTS  
IN OR IMMEDIATELY UPSTREAM FROM OUR HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA:  
 
RIVER... LOCATION... 3/6/19  
N FORK HOLSTON RIVER SALTVILLE VA 229%  
CLINCH RIVER CLEVELAND VA 200%  
CLINCH RIVER TAZEWELL TN 260%  
POWELL RIVER ARTHUR TN 295%  
EMORY RIVER OAKDALE TN 143%  
PIGEON RIVER HEPCO NC 182%  
FRENCH BROAD RIVER ASHEVILLE NC 200%  
 
TENNESSEE RIVER BASIN RESERVOIR LEVELS...  
 
DUE TO THE WET WINTER AND THE EXCESSIVELY WET FEBRUARY, RESERVOIR  
LEVELS ARE NEAR SUMMERTIME POOLS, AND DAM RELEASES HAVE BEEN  
ELEVATED IN ORDER TO MOVE THE WATER THROUGH THE SYSTEM. NOT  
SURPRISINGLY, THE PERCENT OF AVAILABLE FLOOD CONTROL STORAGE FOR  
RESERVOIRS IN THE TENNESSEE BASIN ABOVE CHATTANOOGA IS DOWN TO 42  
PERCENT.  
 
METEOROLOGICAL OUTLOOK...  
 
THE WEEK TWO OUTLOOK FOR DAYS 8 TO 14 SHOWS AN EXPECTATION OF NEAR  
NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AND ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION.  
 
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOK FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH SHOWS NO DISCERNIBLE  
TRENDS ON THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST, MEANING THERE ARE EQUAL CHANCES  
FOR BELOW...NEAR...OR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. BUT THERE IS AN  
ELEVATED EXPECTATION FOR ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION.  
 
THE LONGER TERM CLIMATE OUTLOOK FOR THE 3 MONTH PERIOD OF MARCH  
THROUGH MAY INDICATES SLIGHTLY ELEVATED EXPECTATIONS FOR ABOVE  
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION.  
 
THE 2019 SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK...  
 
BASED ON ALL OF THE ABOVE CONSIDERATIONS...AN ABOVE AVERAGE FLOOD  
POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED FOR EAST TENNESSEE...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...  
AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA BASINS.  
 
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS...  
 
THIS OUTLOOK WAS CREATED WITH INPUT FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER  
FORECAST CENTER, THE UNITED STATES GEOLOGICAL SURVEY, THE TENNESSEE  
VALLEY AUTHORITY, STATE AND COUNTY OFFICIALS, AND VARIOUS  
COOPERATIVE WEATHER SPOTTERS. FOR MORE INFORMATION, SEE THE  
FOLLOWING WEBSITES:  
 
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MORRISTOWN  
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LMRFC  
WATERDATA.USGS.GOV/NWIS  
WWW.TVA.GOV  
WWW.TENNESSEE.GOV/ENVIRONMENT  
WWW.DEQ.VIRGINIA.GOV  
WWW.NCWATER.ORG  
DROUGHT.UNL.EDU  
WWW.NOHRSC.NOAA.GOV  
WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV  
 
YOU MAY ALSO CONTACT...  
 
FOR GENERAL WEATHER INFORMATION OR FORECASTS, CALL 423-586-3771.  
 
FOR INFORMATION RELATED TO THIS OUTLOOK, CONTACT...  
 
GLENN CARRIN, SERVICE HYDROLOGIST, AT 423-586-3771  
GEORGE MATHEWS, METEOROLOGIST IN CHARGE,  
AT 423-586-1964 MEDIA ONLY, PLEASE  
 
OR WRITE GLENN.CARRIN@NOAA.GOV AND GEORGE.MATHEWS@NOAA.GOV  
 

 
 
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