620
FNUS71 KAKQ 281821
FWSAKQ
SPOT FORECAST FOR POGO...VDOF
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
121 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2026
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1000 EST ON MARCH 01.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 757-899-5734.
DISCUSSION
MILD AND DRY TODAY ON SW TO W WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THAT FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION IN "BACKDOOR" FASHION FROM
THE NORTH SUNDAY MORNING, THEN DROPS SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN VIRGINIA DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON TIME FRAME.
WINDS OUT OF THE W-SW SHIFT TO THE NW TO N AFTER THE FRONT PASSES
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THERE IS STILL SOME
DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EXACT TIMING OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE, SO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE UPDATED FORECAST TONIGHT AND
EARLY SUNDAY.
SUNDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (45-55 PERCENT).
CHANCE OF PCPN......10 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 65.
MIN HUMIDITY........46 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING NORTHWEST 5 TO 8 MPH EARLY
IN THE AFTERNOON, THEN SHIFTING TO THE NORTH 8
TO 10 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 10 TO 15 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST 17
TO 18 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (9775 MPH-FT) EARLY IN THE MORNING
INCREASING TO GOOD (36570 MPH-FT) IN THE
AFTERNOON.
TIME (EST) 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........46 42 39 31 40 48 57 66
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TSTM COV........
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 10 10 10 10 10
TEMP............56 59 62 65 64 62 58 53
RH..............72 64 56 50 51 52 53 60
20 FT WIND DIR..SW W W NW NW N N N
20 FT WIND SPD..3 4 5 7 8 8 9 10
20 FT WIND GUST.5 6 8 13 14 14 15 18
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.9 1.4 1.8 2.2 2.0 1.9 1.8 1.7
TRANSP WIND DIR.NW NW N N N N N NE
TRANSP WIND SPD.10 12 12 14 14 15 17 18
VRATE MPH-FT/1K.9 15 20 30 32 35 36 36
VENTRATE CAT....PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR
SUNDAY NIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT).
CHANCE OF PCPN......10 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 32.
MAX HUMIDITY........72 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 9 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 17 TO 18 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTH 20
TO 28 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING, THEN DECREASING
TO AROUND 18 MPH AFTER 3 AM.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (30934 MPH-FT).
TIME (EST) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).........72 78 75 74 72 67 61 56 51 45 40 48
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TSTM COV........
CHC OF PCPN (%).10 10 10 10 10 10 10 0 0 0 0 0
TEMP............50 47 44 43 41 40 38 37 36 34 33 33
RH..............61 63 68 67 67 67 70 67 69 72 72 72
20 FT WIND DIR..N NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE
20 FT WIND SPD..9 9 8 7 7 6 6 5 5 5 6 6
20 FT WIND GUST.15 15 14 12 12 11 11 8 8 8 11 11
MIX HGT (KFT)...1.5 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.4 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4
TRANSP WIND DIR.NE NE N N N N N N N N N N
TRANSP WIND SPD.17 18 28 26 25 25 24 23 22 20 18 18
VRATE MPH-FT/1K.31 30 51 50 47 46 45 43 39 36 34 35
VENTRATE CAT....PR PR FR FR FR FR PR PR PR PR PR PR
MONDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (60-70 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON.
CHANCE OF PCPN......20 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 41.
MIN HUMIDITY........46 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 8 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 12 TO 20 MPH DECREASING TO 9 TO 10
MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (20240 MPH-FT) EARLY IN THE MORNING
INCREASING TO GOOD (41860 MPH-FT) IN THE
AFTERNOON.
TIME (EST) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........56 64 68 72 76 75 75 74 74 75 75 76
WEATHER COV..... SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
WEATHER TYPE.... SN SN SN SN SN
TSTM COV........
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 0 10 10 10 20 20 20 20 20
TEMP............33 33 34 36 37 38 39 40 41 41 41 39
RH..............69 66 64 56 52 52 50 48 46 46 46 50
20 FT WIND DIR..NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE E E E E
20 FT WIND SPD..6 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 5
20 FT WIND GUST.11 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 8
MIX HGT (KFT)...1.5 1.6 1.8 2.0 2.3 2.6 2.8 2.9 2.9 2.7 2.5 2.1
TRANSP WIND DIR.N N N NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE E
TRANSP WIND SPD.20 20 20 20 18 17 15 13 12 10 9 9
VRATE MPH-FT/1K.37 40 41 41 41 39 35 32 27 24 22 20
VENTRATE CAT....PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR
FORECASTER...MONTEFUSCO
REQUESTED BY...SCOTT BACHMAN
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2604327.0/AKQ
.DELDT 02/28/26
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
.EMAIL SCOTT.BACHMAN@DOF.VIRGINIA.GOV
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