058
FNUS71 KAKQ 201330
FWSAKQ
SPOT FORECAST FOR COLEMAN TRAIL BURN...MERCHANTS MILLPOND STATE PARK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
930 AM EDT WED MAY 20 2026
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1000 EDT ON MAY 20.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 757-899-5734.
DISCUSSION
HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY, WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 90S, AND MIN RH VALUES AROUND 35
PERCENT. DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE A BETTER
CHANCE FOR A WETTING RAIN TOMORROW. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE THEN
EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
REST OF TODAY
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (0-10 PERCENT).
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 94.
MIN HUMIDITY........38 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 8 TO 9 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......7000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 13 TO 14 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (26104 MPH-FT) EARLY IN THE MORNING
INCREASING TO EXCELLENT (95104 MPH-FT) IN THE
AFTERNOON.
LVORI...............1.
ADI.................34 EARLY IN THE MORNING INCREASING TO 102 IN
THE AFTERNOON.
TIME (EDT) 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........5 3 6 8 7 7 6 5
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TSTM COV........
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
TEMP............80 84 87 89 91 92 92 93
RH..............61 55 50 45 42 41 40 38
20 FT WIND DIR..SW SW SW SW SW SW S S
20 FT WIND SPD..8 8 8 8 8 8 9 9
20 FT WIND GUST.14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14
MIX HGT (KFT)...1.8 2.6 3.5 5.0 6.2 6.8 7.0 6.4
TRANSP WIND DIR.SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW
TRANSP WIND SPD.14 14 14 13 13 13 14 14
LVORI...........1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
ADI.............34 45 57 73 84 95 102 97
VRATE MPH-FT/1K.26 35 47 63 76 87 95 88
VENTRATE CAT....PR PR FR FR GD GD GD GD
TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (15-25 PERCENT).
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 69.
MAX HUMIDITY........87 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 9 MPH IN THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT BECOMING LIGHT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 6 TO 13 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (57959 MPH-FT) EARLY IN THE EVENING
DECREASING TO POOR (1839 MPH-FT) LATE IN THE
NIGHT.
LVORI...............4.
ADI.................68 EARLY IN THE EVENING DECREASING TO 3 LATE IN
THE NIGHT.
TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).........5 6 6 5 10 10 12 9 10 15 20 32
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TSTM COV........
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
TEMP............90 87 84 80 78 75 74 72 71 70 70 70
RH..............41 46 53 62 64 71 76 81 84 87 87 87
20 FT WIND DIR..S S S S S S S S S S S S
20 FT WIND SPD..9 8 8 8 8 8 7 6 5 4 3 2
20 FT WIND GUST.14 14 14 14 14 14 12 11 8 6 5 3
MIX HGT (KFT)...4.7 1.6 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
TRANSP WIND DIR.S S S S S S S S S S S S
TRANSP WIND SPD.13 10 9 9 10 10 10 9 8 7 6 6
LVORI...........1 2 2 3 3 3 4 4 5 6 6 6
ADI.............68 7 6 6 7 7 7 4 4 3 3 3
VRATE MPH-FT/1K.57 16 3 2 3 4 5 4 2 2 1 1
VENTRATE CAT....FR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR
THURSDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (60-70 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS LATE IN THE MORNING. CHANCE OF SHOWERS
EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON, THEN SHOWERS LIKELY AND
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
CHANCE OF PCPN......70 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 87.
MIN HUMIDITY........55 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING NORTHEAST 5 TO 7 MPH LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......4000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 5 TO 9 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST
AROUND 1 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (2875 MPH-FT) EARLY IN THE MORNING
INCREASING TO FAIR (27599 MPH-FT) IN THE
AFTERNOON.
LVORI...............4.
ADI.................3 TO 35.
TIME (EDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........43 43 44 44 46 48 55 65 80 82 82 81
WEATHER COV..... SCH SCH SCH CHC LKY LKY LKY LKY
WEATHER TYPE.... RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW
TSTM COV........ CHC CHC CHC CHC
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 0 20 20 20 50 70 70 70 70
TEMP............70 71 73 75 79 82 83 85 86 84 82 78
RH..............87 87 84 79 69 61 59 57 55 57 61 69
20 FT WIND DIR..S S S S SW SW S E E NE NE NE
20 FT WIND SPD..3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 6 7
20 FT WIND GUST.5 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 9 12 14
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.4 0.6 1.0 1.6 2.0 2.6 3.1 3.6 4.0 3.9 2.8 2.8
TRANSP WIND DIR.S S S SW SW SW SW SW SW W NW N
TRANSP WIND SPD.7 8 9 9 9 8 8 8 7 5 1 1
LVORI...........6 5 4 3 3 2 1 1 2 2 3 3
ADI.............3 8 12 20 23 28 32 35 26 15 5 4
VRATE MPH-FT/1K.2 4 9 15 17 21 24 27 27 16 4 3
VENTRATE CAT....PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR
FORECASTER...BUTNER
REQUESTED BY...JEFFREY TURNER
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2614110.0/AKQ
.DELDT 05/20/26
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
.EMAIL JEFFREY.TURNER@NCPARKS.GOV
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