577  
FNUS71 KAKQ 241359  
FWSAKQ  
 
SPOT FORECAST FOR BLACKWATER RX...U.S.F.W.S.  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA  
859 AM EST MON FEB 24 2020  
 
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0900 EST ON FEBRUARY 24.  
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER  
SERVICE AT 757-899-5734.  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA SLIDES OFFSHORE THIS MORNING.  
THE SURFACE INVERSION WILL BREAK BETWEEN NOON AND 1 PM, WITH  
LIGHT S WINDS INCREASING SLIGHTLY...TO AROUND 5-7 MPH THIS  
AFTERNOON. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE AREA WITH UNSETTLED  
CONDITIONS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH MIDWEEK. MARKEDLY COOLER, DRIER  
WEATHER RETURNS TO THE REGION LATE THIS WEEK THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.  
 
WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTH, BUT MAY  
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT TIMES OVERNIGHT.  
   
TODAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (55-65 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING  
CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN  
SHOWERS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......20 PERCENT.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 56.  
MIN HUMIDITY........51 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTH 5 TO 8 MPH IN THE  
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......2200 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 2 TO 9 MPH INCREASING TO SOUTHWEST 13 TO  
20 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (1000 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE MORNING  
INCREASING TO GOOD (34600 KNOT-FT) IN THE  
AFTERNOON.  
LVORI...............3.  
ADI.................6 INCREASING TO 34.  
HAINES INDEX........3 TO 5 OR VERY LOW TO MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR  
LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (EST) 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM  
SKY (%).........51 58 65 69 74 80 86 92 93  
WEATHER COV..... SCH SCH  
WEATHER TYPE.... RW RW  
TSTM COV........  
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 0 10 10 10 20 20  
TEMP............49 49 52 55 56 57 57 55 53  
RH..............73 59 53 47 46 46 48 53 59  
20 FT WIND DIR..S S S S S S S S S  
20 FT WIND SPD..4 5 6 6 6 6 7 7 7  
20 FT WIND GUST.5 7 8 10 10 10 11 11 11  
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.9 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.6 2.2 2.1 2.0 1.7  
TRANSP WIND DIR.SW SW S S S S SW SW S  
TRANSP WIND SPD.3 6 8 9 13 15 18 20 17  
LVORI...........3 3 2 2 2 2 1 1 1  
ADI.............4 10 15 17 20 30 36 38 31  
HAINES INDEX....5 5 5 5 5 4 4 3 3  
VRATE KT-FT/1K..3 7 10 12 15 28 34 35 26  
VENTRATE CAT....PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN  
SHOWERS EARLY IN THE EVENING, THEN CHANCE OF  
RAIN SHOWERS IN THE EVENING. RAIN SHOWERS  
OVERNIGHT.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......80 PERCENT.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 44.  
MAX HUMIDITY........93 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 6 TO 7 MPH IN THE EVENING AND  
OVERNIGHT BECOMING LIGHT.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 5 TO 13 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST 2  
TO 3 MPH AFTER 3 AM.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (16100 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE EVENING  
DECREASING TO POOR (500 KNOT-FT) LATE IN THE  
NIGHT.  
LVORI...............5.  
ADI.................10 DECREASING TO 2 OVERNIGHT.  
HAINES INDEX........2 TO 3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (EST) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM  
SKY (%).........94 94 94 95 95 95 95 96 96 97 98 97  
WEATHER COV.....SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF  
WEATHER TYPE....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW  
TSTM COV........  
CHC OF PCPN (%).20 30 30 30 30 30 30 80 80 80 80 80  
TEMP............51 49 49 48 47 47 47 46 46 46 46 46  
RH..............66 71 71 77 83 86 86 89 89 93 93 93  
20 FT WIND DIR..S S S S S S S S S SE SE SE  
20 FT WIND SPD..6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 4 3 2 3  
20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 10 10 8 8 8 7 6 5 4  
MIX HGT (KFT)...1.4 1.1 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3  
TRANSP WIND DIR.S S S S S S S S S SE SE E  
TRANSP WIND SPD.13 12 12 9 8 8 7 7 5 3 2 2  
LVORI...........2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 7 7 7  
ADI.............14 10 10 7 5 5 5 5 3 2 1 1  
HAINES INDEX....3 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 2  
VRATE KT-FT/1K..16 11 10 7 5 3 2 2 1 1 1 1  
VENTRATE CAT....PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR  
   
TUESDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS IN THE  
MORNING, THEN CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE  
AFTERNOON.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......80 PERCENT.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 55.  
MIN HUMIDITY........83 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......1600 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 1 TO 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST  
2 TO 5 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (700 KNOT-FT).  
LVORI...............6.  
ADI.................4.  
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (EST) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM  
SKY (%).........97 97 97 95 93 90  
WEATHER COV.....DEFNTE DEFNTE DEFNTE DEFNTE CHANCE CHANCE  
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR  
TSTM COV........  
CHC OF PCPN (%).80 80 80 80 30 30  
TEMP............46 48 51 53 54 54  
RH..............93 89 86 83 83 86  
20 FT WIND......E 3 E 4 SE 3 SE 3 SE 2 S 1  
20 FT WIND GUST.5 6 5 5 2  
MIX HGT (FT)....300 300 300 700 1100 1600  
TRANSPORT WIND..E 3 E 5 NE 2 E 1 NE 1 NW 3  
LVORI...........6 6 6 5 5 5  
ADI.............3 5 2 1 2 7  
HAINES INDEX....2 2 2 2 2 2  
VRATE KT-FT/1K..1 1 1 1 2 5  
VENTRATE CAT....POOR POOR POOR POOR POOR POOR  
 

 
FORECASTER...MONTEFUSCO  
REQUESTED BY...STEVE STACK  
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED  
.TAG 2002826.0/AKQ  
.DELDT 02/24/20  
.FORMATTERVERSION 1.0.26  
.EMAIL STEPHEN_STACK@FWS.GOV  
 
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