318
FNUS71 KRNK 060157
FWSRNK
SPOT FORECAST FOR TAYLOR HOLLOW FIRE...U.S. FOREST SERVICE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
957 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2026
FORECAST IS BASED ON FORECAST START TIME OF 0600 EDT ON JULY 06.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
DISCUSSION
A SHOWER MAY PUSH ACROSS THE BURN SITE BEFORE 11PM TONIGHT.
MONDAY COULD HAVE FOG TO START, WITH HIGH RH. SUNSHINE RETURNS BY
LATE MORNING, THEN SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE SCATTERED AROUND
IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS STAY LIGHT OUTSIDE OF ANY STORMS.
STORM CHANCES REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEK, ALONG WITH ELEVATED HUMIDITY.
MONDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (45-55 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG EARLY
IN THE MORNING. SHOWERS LIKELY AND CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
CWR (0.01 IN).......10 PERCENT INCREASING TO 60 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 85.
MIN HUMIDITY........54 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......4800 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........NORTH AROUND 1 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST 6 TO 7
MPH LATE IN THE MORNING.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (300 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE MORNING
INCREASING TO FAIR (28700 KNOT-FT) IN THE
AFTERNOON.
LVORI...............4.
ADI.................0 TO 38.
TIME (EDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........60 62 55 58 52 37 28 43 61 68 73 86
WEATHER COV.....PTY SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC LKY
WEATHER TYPE....FOG RW RW RW RW RW RW
TSTM COV........ SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC
CWR.............0 0 10 10 10 10 20 20 30 40 50 60
TEMP............69 70 72 73 77 79 82 83 85 84 83 80
RH..............90 89 85 81 73 69 62 59 54 57 59 68
20 FT WIND DIR..N N N N W W W SW SW W SW W
20 FT WIND SPD..0 0 0 0 1 2 2 3 3 3 3 2
20 FT WIND GUST.2 2 2 2 4 5 6 6 7 7 7 7
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.5 0.5 0.9 1.3 2.1 3.1 4.0 4.4 4.8 3.9 3.0 2.3
MIXNG WIND DIR..NE N NW NW W W W W W W SW SW
MIXNG WIND SPD..1 1 1 2 5 6 7 7 7 7 7 7
LVORI...........7 7 6 5 4 3 3 1 1 1 2 3
ADI.............0 1 1 4 11 23 33 38 38 33 26 20
VRATE MPH-FT/1K.0 0 1 3 9 18 26 30 33 27 21 16
MONDAY NIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT). CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING. CHANCE OF SHOWERS
THROUGH THE NIGHT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT.
CWR (0.01 IN).......50 PERCENT DECREASING TO 10 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 67.
MAX HUMIDITY........95 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING. GUSTY AND
ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS LATE
IN THE EVENING.
MIXING HEIGHT.......400 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTHWEST 3 TO 7 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST
AROUND 7 MPH AFTER 3 AM.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (1400 KNOT-FT).
LVORI...............5.
ADI.................2 TO 16.
TIME (EDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM
SKY (%).........74 67 58 62 56 68
WEATHER COV.....CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE NONE
TSTM COV........CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE S CHC
CWR.............50 50 40 30 10 10
TEMP............80 76 74 72 70 69
RH..............66 77 80 86 90 92
20 FT WIND......SW 2 NE 2 SW 1 SW 1 W 1 W 1
20 FT WIND GUST.6 6 5 4 4 4
MIX HGT (FT)....1700 700 500 400 400 400
MIXING WIND......SW 7 S 7 S 5 SW 3 SW 6 W 7
LVORI...........3 4 5 6 6 6
ADI.............16 3 2 2 3 3
VRATE MPH-FT/1K.12 5 2 2 3 3
TUESDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (60-70 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING, THEN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY IN THE
AFTERNOON.
CWR (0.01 IN).......20 PERCENT INCREASING TO 70 PERCENT LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 82.
MIN HUMIDITY........65 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE MORNING. GUSTY
AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......5200 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........NORTHWEST 5 TO 14 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (2000 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE MORNING
INCREASING TO GOOD (51700 KNOT-FT) IN THE
AFTERNOON.
LVORI...............4.
ADI.................3 EARLY IN THE MORNING INCREASING TO 68 IN THE
AFTERNOON.
TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM
SKY (%).........74 58 54 64 83 83
WEATHER COV.....S CHC S CHC S CHC S CHC LIKELY LIKELY
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
TSTM COV........ S CHC CHANCE CHANCE
CWR.............20 20 20 20 70 70
TEMP............68 71 75 79 81 80
RH..............95 89 83 71 65 67
20 FT WIND......W 1 W 1 W 1 W 2 W 3 NW 3
20 FT WIND GUST.4 4 5 6 7 7
MIX HGT (FT)....500 600 2100 3700 5200 3900
MIXING WIND......W 6 W 5 NW 8 NW 12 NW 12 NW 14
LVORI...........6 6 4 3 1 1
ADI.............3 5 22 49 68 63
VRATE MPH-FT/1K.3 3 17 40 59 53
FORECASTER...PERRY
REQUESTED BY...B. FOLTZ
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2616833.0/RNK
.DELDT 07/05/26
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
.EMAIL BRENT.FOLTZ@USDA.GOV,MARCUS.SEWELL@USDA.GOV,ALLISTER.WHITE@USDA.GOV
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