434
FNUS71 KRNK 211654
FWSRNK
SPOT FORECAST FOR TAYLOR HOLLOW...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1254 PM EDT TUE JUL 21 2026
FORECAST IS BASED ON FORECAST START TIME OF 1700 EDT ON JULY 21.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
DISCUSSION
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALREADY POPPING UP NEAR THE
WILDFIRE SITE, AND THIS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT AHEAD OF
AND ALONG A COLD FRONT. CHANCES DECREASE SOME TOMORROW MORNING
HOURS BEFORE INCREASING ONCE AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WINDS WILL BE SW TO W WITH SPEEDS AROUND 5 TO 20 MPH, WITH GUSTS
TO 25 TO 30 KNOTS...WITH HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
WIND SHIFTS FROM OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND THE COLD FRONT ITSELF
WILL BE A CONCERN AS THEY COULD MAKE WINDS ERRATIC AND GUSTY.
REST OF TODAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
CWR (0.01 IN).......50 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 80.
MIN HUMIDITY........73 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 6 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 18 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2100 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTHWEST AROUND 29 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (52400 KNOT-FT).
LVORI...............3.
ADI.................73.
TIME (EDT) 5PM
SKY (%).........71
WEATHER COV.....CHC
WEATHER TYPE....RW
TSTM COV........CHC
CWR.............50
TEMP............79
RH..............73
20 FT WIND DIR..SW
20 FT WIND SPD..6
20 FT WIND GUST.18
MIX HGT (KFT)...2.1
MIXNG WIND DIR..SW
MIXNG WIND SPD..29
LVORI...........3
ADI.............73
VRATE MPH-FT/1K.60
TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). THUNDERSTORMS
LIKELY IN THE EVENING. SHOWERS LIKELY THROUGH
THE NIGHT. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT.
CWR (0.01 IN).......60 PERCENT INCREASING TO 70 PERCENT IN THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, THEN DECREASING TO
30 PERCENT EARLY IN THE MORNING.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 67.
MAX HUMIDITY........98 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 7 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 26 MPH
IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTHWEST 15 TO 23 MPH DECREASING TO 8 TO 15
MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING, THEN INCREASING TO 12
TO 18 MPH LATE IN THE EVENING DECREASING TO 8
TO 14 MPH OVERNIGHT.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (33100 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE EVENING
DECREASING TO POOR (3600 KNOT-FT) LATE IN THE
NIGHT.
LVORI...............6.
ADI.................49 EARLY IN THE EVENING DECREASING TO 7 LATE IN
THE NIGHT.
TIME (EDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM
SKY (%).........91 98 86 90 82 73
WEATHER COV.....LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY CHANCE
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
TSTM COV........LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY CHANCE S CHC S CHC
CWR.............60 70 70 70 60 40
TEMP............77 75 72 70 69 68
RH..............77 82 89 95 95 97
20 FT WIND......SW 6 SW 7 W 7 W 7 W 6 SW 6
20 FT WIND GUST.18 20 21 19 18 14
MIX HGT (FT)....1700 700 600 500 500 500
MIXING WIND......SW 23 S 8 SW 15 SW 16 SW 8 SW 12
LVORI...........3 4 5 7 8 7
ADI.............49 7 13 14 7 8
VRATE MPH-FT/1K.38 6 9 7 4 5
WEDNESDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (45-55 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS IN THE MORNING, THEN CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
CWR (0.01 IN).......20 PERCENT INCREASING TO 40 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 80.
MIN HUMIDITY........63 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH EARLY IN THE
MORNING BECOMING LIGHT, THEN BECOMING WEST
AROUND 5 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
BECOMING LIGHT. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......4600 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........WEST 12 TO 21 MPH DECREASING TO AROUND 10 MPH
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (7100 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE MORNING
INCREASING TO EXCELLENT (60300 KNOT-FT) IN THE
AFTERNOON.
LVORI...............5.
ADI.................11 EARLY IN THE MORNING INCREASING TO 91 IN THE
AFTERNOON.
TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM
SKY (%).........70 43 67 30 61 54
WEATHER COV.....S CHC S CHC S CHC CHANCE
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR NONE NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
TSTM COV........ S CHC CHANCE
CWR.............20 0 10 20 20 30
TEMP............68 69 72 75 78 79
RH..............96 95 88 77 66 63
20 FT WIND......SW 5 W 4 W 5 W 5 W 5 W 5
20 FT WIND GUST.13 11 12 12 12 11
MIX HGT (FT)....500 1100 2200 3900 4400 4600
MIXING WIND......SW 16 W 20 W 21 W 18 W 14 W 12
LVORI...........7 6 4 3 1 1
ADI.............11 29 55 91 54 46
VRATE MPH-FT/1K.8 22 45 69 61 52
FORECASTER...HANES
REQUESTED BY...LINDSEY CURTIN
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2617252.16/RNK
.DELDT 07/21/26
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
.EMAIL LINDSEY.CURTIN@USDA.GOV,BRENT.FOLTZ@USDA.GOV,JAMES.COLLETT@USDA.GOV,MARTIN.ANGELO@USDA.GOV,JACOB.JOHNSON2@USDA.GOV
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