468  
FNUS71 KRNK 051135  
FWSRNK  
 
SPOT FORECAST FOR NORTH CREEK...USFS  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA  
635 AM EST WED FEB 5 2020  
 
FORECAST IS BASED ON FORECAST START TIME OF 0700 EST ON FEBRUARY 05.  
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER  
SERVICE.  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BRING ABUNDANT RAINFALL,  
ON THE ORDER OF TWO TO FOUR INCHES, TO THE REGION THROUGH  
THURSDAY NIGHT. NORTHWEST FLOW, AND FALLING TEMPERATURES WILL  
ALLOW FOR SOME MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.  
AFTER A BRIEF BREAK FROM PRECIPITATION ON SUNDAY, SHOWERS  
RETURN TO THE FORECAST MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW  
PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.  
 
RAINFALL THIS MORNING WILL BE DISORGANIZED AND ON THE LIGHTER  
SIDE WITH AMOUNTS GENERALLY LESS THAN ONE-TENTH OF AN INCH  
THROUGH NOON. THIS AFTERNOON, THE RAIN WILL BE MORE ORGANIZED  
AND MORE WIDESPREAD. AMOUNTS WILL BE CLOSE TO TWO-TENTHS OF AN  
INCH.  
 
THE TREND TOWARDS MORE RAIN CONTINUES OVERNIGHT WITH AMOUNTS  
CLOSER TO ONE-HALF INCH. THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT IS WHEN  
WE EXPECTED THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL, WITH AMOUNTS DURING THE  
TWELVE HOUR PERIOD BETWEEN ROUGHLY ONE AND ONE-HALF AND ONE AND  
THREE-QUARTERS INCHES.  
 
   
REST OF TODAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). RAIN LIKELY IN THE  
MORNING, THEN RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.  
CWR (0.01 IN).......60 PERCENT INCREASING TO 90 PERCENT.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 56.  
MIN HUMIDITY........78 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......1800 FT AGL.  
MIXING WINDS........SOUTHWEST 6 TO 7 MPH SHIFTING TO THE EAST 7 TO  
14 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (4400 MPH-FT) EARLY IN THE MORNING  
INCREASING TO FAIR (20400 MPH-FT) IN THE  
AFTERNOON.  
LVORI...............5.  
ADI.................10 INCREASING TO 30.  
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (EST) 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM  
SKY (%).........91 90 89 100 98 100 100 100 100 100 94  
WEATHER COV.....LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF  
WEATHER TYPE....RN RN RN RN RN RN RN RN RN RN RN  
TSTM COV........  
CWR.............60 60 70 70 70 80 80 80 90 90 90  
TEMP............56 54 53 54 53 53 52 51 49 48 48  
RH..............86 90 92 90 87 85 84 84 82 81 79  
20 FT WIND DIR..SW SW NE NE E E E E E E E  
20 FT WIND SPD..2 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2  
20 FT WIND GUST. 2 2 5 5 5 5 6 6 6  
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9 1.2 1.5 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7  
MIXNG WIND DIR..W SW SE E E E E E E E E  
MIXNG WIND SPD..6 7 7 8 9 12 13 13 13 13 14  
LVORI...........5 6 6 5 4 4 4 4 3 3 3  
ADI.............5 6 7 10 14 18 22 22 22 23 30  
HAINES INDEX....3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3  
VRATE MPH-FT/1K.5 5 6 7 11 16 22 22 22 22 23  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). RAIN.  
CWR (0.01 IN).......90 PERCENT INCREASING TO 100 PERCENT IN THE  
LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 41.  
MAX HUMIDITY........99 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL.  
MIXING WINDS........SOUTHEAST 9 TO 17 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST  
2 TO 6 MPH OVERNIGHT.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (24300 MPH-FT) EARLY IN THE EVENING  
DECREASING TO POOR (400 MPH-FT) LATE IN THE  
NIGHT.  
LVORI...............5.  
ADI.................9 INCREASING TO 19 EARLY IN THE EVENING, THEN  
DECREASING TO 12 LATE IN THE EVENING DECREASING  
TO 6 LATE IN THE EVENING.  
HAINES INDEX........2 TO 3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (EST) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM  
SKY (%).........95 100 100 100 99 92  
WEATHER COV.....DEFNTE DEFNTE DEFNTE DEFNTE DEFNTE DEFNTE  
WEATHER TYPE....RAIN RAIN RAIN RAIN RAIN RAIN  
TSTM COV........  
CWR.............90 90 100 100 100 100  
TEMP............46 44 42 41 42 44  
RH..............85 82 83 88 89 89  
20 FT WIND......E 4 E 3 E 2 E 2 E 2 SE 1  
20 FT WIND GUST.6 6 4 2  
MIX HGT (FT)....1600 1600 1800 1500 1000 300  
MIXING WIND......E 16 E 17 SE 15 SE 9 E 5 NE 2  
LVORI...........4 3 4 5 7 7  
ADI.............11 19 16 10 2 1  
HAINES INDEX....2 2 3 3 3 3  
VRATE MPH-FT/1K.25 28 27 13 4 1  
   
THURSDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (95-100 PERCENT). RAIN.  
CWR (0.01 IN).......100 PERCENT DECREASING TO 90 PERCENT.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 61.  
MIN HUMIDITY........83 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......1200 FT AGL.  
MIXING WINDS........SOUTH 0 TO 9 MPH INCREASING TO SOUTHWEST 18 TO  
25 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (0 MPH-FT) EARLY IN THE MORNING INCREASING  
TO FAIR (26000 MPH-FT) IN THE AFTERNOON.  
LVORI...............7.  
ADI.................1 INCREASING TO 35.  
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (EST) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM  
SKY (%).........100 100 100 99 99 99  
WEATHER COV.....DEFNTE DEFNTE DEFNTE DEFNTE DEFNTE DEFNTE  
WEATHER TYPE....RAIN RAIN RAIN RAIN RAIN RAIN  
TSTM COV........  
CWR.............100 90 90 90 90 90  
TEMP............45 47 51 54 58 59  
RH..............92 99 97 93 86 83  
20 FT WIND......S 2 S 2 S 2 S 2 S 2 SW 2  
20 FT WIND GUST. 5 6 6 7 10  
MIX HGT (FT)....300 300 500 900 1200 1200  
MIXING WIND......NW 1 W 0 S 2 S 18 SW 25 SW 22  
LVORI...........7 10 8 5 4 4  
ADI.............1 0 2 20 38 32  
HAINES INDEX....3 3 3 3 3 3  
VRATE MPH-FT/1K.0 0 1 17 30 25  
 

 
FORECASTER...SLEIGHTER  
REQUESTED BY...ADAM CHRISTIE  
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE  
.TAG 2001774.0/RNK  
.DELDT 02/05/20  
.FORMATTERVERSION 1.0.26  
 
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