516
FNUS71 KRNK 172127
FWSRNK
SPOT FORECAST FOR TAYLOR HOLLOW...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
527 PM EDT FRI JUL 17 2026
FORECAST IS BASED ON FORECAST START TIME OF 0000 EDT ON JULY 18.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
DISCUSSION
SMOKEY CONDITIONS PERSIST THIS EVENING INTO TOMORROW (SATURDAY) MORNING.
THE SMOKE WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AND BE OUT OF THE AREA BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS, HOWEVER, ARE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE SCATTERED NATURE OF THE STORMS
MEAN IT WILL BE HIT OR MISS OF WHERE THEY HIT. EVEN SO, CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SOME OF THESE STORMS TO CARRY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HEAVY
RAIN. THERE MAY BE A LULL PERIOD SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OCCURS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE LIKELIHOOD OF
PRECIPITATION AS WELL AS THE SEVERE WIND HAZARD ARE LOWER FOR SUNDAY THAN
SATURDAY.
REST OF TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT). PATCHY SMOKE.
CWR (0.01 IN).......10 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 72.
MAX HUMIDITY........84 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS.
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........NORTH AROUND 1 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST
OVERNIGHT.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (400 KNOT-FT).
LVORI...............5.
ADI.................0 TO 1.
TIME (EDT) MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).........70 73 70 63 70 54
WEATHER COV.....PTY PTY PTY PTY PTY PTY
WEATHER TYPE....SMK SMK SMK SMK SMK SMK
TSTM COV........
CWR.............10 0 0 0 0 0
TEMP............76 75 74 74 73 73
RH..............76 77 79 80 81 81
20 FT WIND DIR..SE SE SE SE S S
20 FT WIND SPD..1 1 1 1 1 1
20 FT WIND GUST.5 5 5 5 5 5
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5
MIXNG WIND DIR..NE N NW NW NW NW
MIXNG WIND SPD..1 1 1 1 1 1
LVORI...........4 4 4 6 6 6
ADI.............1 1 1 0 0 1
VRATE MPH-FT/1K.1 1 1 0 0 1
SATURDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (30-55 PERCENT) TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
(65-75 PERCENT). PATCHY SMOKE EARLY IN THE MORNING.
SHOWERS LIKELY AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON.
CWR (0.01 IN).......10 TO 20 PERCENT EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON, THEN
INCREASING TO 60 PERCENT EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON
AND THEN LATER DECREASING TO 40 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 84.
MIN HUMIDITY........60 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST 5 TO 6 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND 17 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING.
GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND
ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......5200 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........WEST AROUND 1 MPH INCREASING TO 14 TO 22 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (300 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE MORNING
INCREASING TO EXCELLENT (86200 KNOT-FT) IN THE
AFTERNOON.
LVORI...............4.
ADI.................0 EARLY IN THE MORNING INCREASING TO 114 IN THE
AFTERNOON.
TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM
SKY (%).........53 42 31 46 72 65
WEATHER COV.....PATCHY PATCHY LIKELY CHANCE
WEATHER TYPE....SMOKE SMOKE NONE NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR
TSTM COV........ CHANCE CHANCE
CWR.............0 0 0 10 60 50
TEMP............72 76 81 84 84 84
RH..............84 78 68 63 60 61
20 FT WIND......S 2 SW 2 SW 4 SW 6 SW 6 W 6
20 FT WIND GUST.5 6 10 14 17 16
MIX HGT (FT)....500 600 2200 4900 4600 3400
MIXING WIND......NW 1 W 2 SW 14 W 20 W 18 W 22
LVORI...........6 4 3 1 1 1
ADI.............0 2 39 110 73 75
VRATE MPH-FT/1K.0 1 30 95 85 75
SATURDAY NIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY (35-65 PERCENT). CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING.
CWR (0.01 IN).......20 PERCENT INCREASING TO 30 PERCENT EARLY IN
THE EVENING, THEN DECREASING TO 10 PERCENT
IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 69.
MAX HUMIDITY........90 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 5 TO 6 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 16
MPH IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT BECOMING
LIGHT. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING.
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........WEST 9 TO 18 MPH DECREASING TO 6 TO 8 MPH
OVERNIGHT.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (35000 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE EVENING
DECREASING TO POOR (2300 KNOT-FT) LATE IN THE
NIGHT.
LVORI...............4.
ADI.................48 EARLY IN THE EVENING DECREASING TO 3 LATE IN
THE NIGHT.
TIME (EDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM
SKY (%).........51 51 41 49 55 69
WEATHER COV.....S CHC S CHC
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE NONE NONE NONE
TSTM COV........S CHC S CHC
CWR.............20 20 10 10 0 0
TEMP............82 78 75 74 72 71
RH..............64 73 80 83 85 89
20 FT WIND......SW 6 W 6 W 5 W 5 W 4 W 3
20 FT WIND GUST.16 16 14 12 11 10
MIX HGT (FT)....2200 800 500 500 500 500
MIXING WIND......W 18 W 9 W 9 W 9 W 7 W 6
LVORI...........1 3 4 4 5 6
ADI.............48 6 6 6 5 3
VRATE MPH-FT/1K.40 7 5 4 3 3
SUNDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
MOSTLY SUNNY (35-45 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
CWR (0.01 IN).......10 PERCENT INCREASING TO 40 PERCENT LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 83.
MIN HUMIDITY........55 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......5700 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........NORTHWEST 1 TO 6 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (2100 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE MORNING
INCREASING TO FAIR (23400 KNOT-FT) IN THE
AFTERNOON.
LVORI...............4.
ADI.................2 TO 33.
TIME (EDT) 6 AM 9 AM NOON 3 PM
SKY (%).........76 18 43 57
WEATHER COV..... CHANCE
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE RNSHWR
TSTM COV........ CHANCE
CWR.............0 10 10 40
TEMP............70 74 80 82
RH..............90 82 65 57
20 FT WIND......W 3G7 NW 3G7 NW 3G7 NW 2G6
MIX HGT (FT)....500 2800 4500 5400
MIXING WIND......W 6 NW 5 NW 6 W 3
LVORI...........6 3 3 2
ADI.............2 18 32 19
VRATE MPH-FT/1K.2 14 25 17
FORECASTER...GROVER
REQUESTED BY...LINDSEY CURTIN
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2617252.10/RNK
.DELDT 07/17/26
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
.EMAIL BRENT.FOLTZ@USDA.GOV,LINDSEY.CURTIN@USDA.GOV,JACOB.JOHNSON2@USDA.GOV,JAMES.COLLETT@USDA.GOV,MARTIN.ANGELO@USDA.GOV
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