815  
FNUS71 KRNK 260816  
FWSRNK  
 
SPOT FORECAST FOR LAKE SHERWOOD PILES...USDA USFS  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA  
416 AM EDT TUE MAR 26 2024  
 
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0600 EDT ON MARCH 26.  
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER  
SERVICE.  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
20 FOOT WINDS WILL BE SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 MPH THIS MORNING,  
INCREASING TO 10-15 MPH BY NOON. HIGH CLOUDS THIS MORNING WILL  
LOWER THIS AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT RAIN ARRIVING BY LATER IN THE  
AFTERNOON. A FEW GUSTS TO 20 MPH BETWEEN 11AM-3PM.  
   
TODAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). RAIN LIKELY LATE IN THE  
AFTERNOON.  
CWR (0.01 IN).......10 PERCENT INCREASING TO 60 PERCENT.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 51.  
MIN HUMIDITY........46 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST 7 TO 12 MPH WITH  
GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......2200 FT AGL.  
MIXING WINDS........SOUTHEAST 10 TO 20 MPH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (2300 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE MORNING  
INCREASING TO FAIR (19100 KNOT-FT) IN THE  
AFTERNOON.  
LVORI...............3.  
ADI.................4 TO 21.  
HAINES INDEX........2 TO 3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (EDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM  
SKY (%).........84 82 79 85 91 97 92 87 83 87 100 100  
WEATHER COV..... CHC CHC CHC LKY  
WEATHER TYPE.... RN RN RN RN  
TSTM COV........  
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 10 10 10 30 40 50 60  
TEMP............34 35 35 36 40 44 47 48 50 49 49 48  
RH..............76 74 73 69 60 51 48 47 46 51 55 60  
20 FT WIND DIR..E E E SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE  
20 FT WIND SPD..8 8 7 7 8 8 9 10 11 10 9 9  
20 FT WIND GUST.12 13 11 9 12 11 13 16 16 16 15 13  
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.5 0.5 0.5 1.1 1.3 1.6 1.7 2.1 2.1 2.2 1.9 1.5  
MIXNG WIND DIR..E E E E SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE  
MIXNG WIND SPD..12 13 11 12 12 12 14 16 19 18 17 15  
LVORI...........4 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2  
ADI.............4 6 4 8 10 14 18 19 21 20 17 13  
HAINES INDEX....3 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 2  
VRATE MPH-FT/1K.3 3 3 6 8 11 14 20 22 22 17 12  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). RAIN LIKELY. PATCHY FOG  
AFTER 3 AM.  
CWR (0.01 IN).......70 PERCENT.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 42.  
MAX HUMIDITY........94 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 7 MPH IN THE EVENING  
BECOMING LIGHT.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......600 FT AGL.  
MIXING WINDS........SOUTHEAST 2 TO 8 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST  
1 TO 2 MPH OVERNIGHT.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (700 KNOT-FT).  
LVORI...............6.  
ADI.................1 TO 11.  
HAINES INDEX........2 TO 3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (EDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM  
SKY (%).........100 100 88 84 88 89  
WEATHER COV.....LIKELY CHANCE CHANCE LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY  
WEATHER TYPE....RAIN RAIN RAIN RAIN RAIN RAIN  
TSTM COV........  
CWR.............60 50 50 60 70 60  
TEMP............47 45 45 44 44 44  
RH..............66 71 74 80 83 87  
20 FT WIND......SE 7 SE 6 SE 5 SE 5 SE 4 SE 3  
20 FT WIND GUST.11 10 7 6 6 5  
MIX HGT (FT)....1200 1000 800 700 700 700  
MIXING WIND......SE 8 SE 7 SE 6 E 3 NE 1 NE 2  
LVORI...........3 3 3 5 6 6  
ADI.............11 6 4 2 1 1  
HAINES INDEX....2 2 2 2 3 3  
VRATE MPH-FT/1K.9 7 5 2 1 1  
   
WEDNESDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG IN  
THE MORNING. RAIN LIKELY IN THE MORNING.  
CWR (0.01 IN).......60 PERCENT DECREASING TO 20 PERCENT.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 57.  
MIN HUMIDITY........59 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST 5 TO 6 MPH IN  
THE AFTERNOON.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......4300 FT AGL.  
MIXING WINDS........NORTHEAST 1 TO 2 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST  
0 TO 2 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY  
AFTERNOON, THEN SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH 5 TO 6  
MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (0 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE MORNING  
INCREASING TO FAIR (21700 KNOT-FT) IN THE  
AFTERNOON.  
LVORI...............5.  
ADI.................0 TO 17.  
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM  
SKY (%).........88 89 92 85 70 69  
WEATHER COV.....LIKELY CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE S CHC S CHC  
WEATHER TYPE....RAIN RAIN RAIN RAIN RAIN RAIN  
TSTM COV........  
CWR.............60 50 40 30 20 20  
TEMP............42 42 45 51 55 57  
RH..............94 94 92 79 68 62  
20 FT WIND......SE 3 SE 2 S 3 SW 4 SW 5 SW 6  
20 FT WIND GUST.4 4 5 6 8 10  
MIX HGT (FT)....500 400 1000 2200 3600 4100  
MIXING WIND......NE 2 NE 2 NW 1 N 0 NW 1 S 5  
LVORI...........8 8 8 6 3 2  
ADI.............1 2 1 0 3 13  
HAINES INDEX....3 3 3 3 3 3  
VRATE MPH-FT/1K.1 1 1 0 4 19  
 

 
FORECASTER...PERRY  
REQUESTED BY...SAMUEL URFFER  
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED  
.TAG 2408432.0/RNK  
.DELDT 03/26/24  
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0  
.EMAIL SAMUEL.URFFER@USDA.GOV  
 
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