351  
FNUS71 KRNK 111531  
FWSRNK  
 
SPOT FORECAST FOR TSI SITE PREP RX...PILOT MOUNTAIN STATE PARK  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA  
1131 AM EDT WED SEP 11 2019  
 
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1200 EDT ON SEPTEMBER 11.  
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER  
SERVICE.  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON  
WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FALLING INTO THE LOWER 50S BY LATE  
IN THE AFTERNOON. WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO  
DEVELOP TODAY AFTER 2 PM, AND WITH DRY AIR ALOFT, THESE STORMS  
WILL PRODUCE LOCALIZED WIND GUSTS OVER 40 MPH, AND WILL BE SLOW MOVING.  
 
VERY SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THURSDAY.  
   
REST OF TODAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (5-15 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS  
AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.  
CWR (0.01 IN).......10 PERCENT INCREASING TO 20 PERCENT LATE IN THE  
AFTERNOON.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 94.  
MIN HUMIDITY........50 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 5 MPH OR LESS.  
WINDS GUSTY AND ERRATIC NEAR THUNDERSTORMS  
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......5700 FT AGL.  
MIXING WINDS........NORTH 5 TO 6 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST  
AROUND 5 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON, THEN  
SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST 2 TO 3 MPH LATE IN  
THE AFTERNOON.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (7300 MPH-FT) EARLY IN THE MORNING  
INCREASING TO FAIR (25000 MPH-FT) IN THE  
AFTERNOON.  
LVORI...............2.  
ADI.................28 DECREASING TO 14 LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.  
HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR VERY LOW TO LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE  
PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (EDT) 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM  
SKY (%).........15 12 9 11 11 12  
WEATHER COV..... SCH  
WEATHER TYPE.... RW  
TSTM COV........ SCH  
CWR.............0 10 10 10 10 20  
TEMP............86 90 92 92 91 90  
RH..............68 57 53 52 51 52  
20 FT WIND DIR..SW SW SW SW SW SW  
20 FT WIND SPD..3 3 3 3 3 3  
20 FT WIND GUST.4 4 4 4 4 4  
MIX HGT (KFT)...3.4 4.5 5.7 5.0 4.3 3.6  
MIXNG WIND DIR..NW N N NE SE S  
MIXNG WIND SPD..6 6 5 5 3 2  
LVORI...........2 2 1 2 2 2  
ADI.............23 30 32 25 17 10  
HAINES INDEX....3 3 3 3 4 4  
VRATE MPH-FT/1K.19 25 29 21 14 8  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (20-30 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING.  
CWR (0.01 IN).......20 PERCENT DECREASING TO 10 PERCENT IN THE LATE  
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 70.  
MAX HUMIDITY........95 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED  
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL.  
MIXING WINDS........SOUTH AROUND 1 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST LATE IN  
THE EVENING, THEN SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST  
OVERNIGHT SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST 0 TO 1 MPH  
OVERNIGHT.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (0 MPH-FT).  
LVORI...............5.  
ADI.................3.  
HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR VERY LOW TO LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE  
PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (EDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM  
SKY (%).........19 28 26 25 23 25  
WEATHER COV.....S CHC S CHC  
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE NONE NONE NONE  
TSTM COV........S CHC S CHC  
CWR.............20 20 10 10 10 0  
TEMP............88 82 78 76 74 72  
RH..............55 70 77 83 87 91  
20 FT WIND......S 3 S 3 W 1 NW 1 E 0 NE 0  
20 FT WIND GUST.4 4 1  
MIX HGT (FT)....2500 300 300 300 300 300  
MIXING WIND......S 1 S 1 W 1 NW 1 E 0 NE 0  
LVORI...........3 4 4 6 6 7  
ADI.............5 0 0 0 0 0  
HAINES INDEX....4 4 3 3 3 3  
VRATE MPH-FT/1K.4 0 0 0 0 0  
   
THURSDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (30-40 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG EARLY  
IN THE MORNING. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE  
AFTERNOON.  
CWR (0.01 IN).......10 PERCENT INCREASING TO 30 PERCENT.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 94.  
MIN HUMIDITY........45 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED  
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......6200 FT AGL.  
MIXING WINDS........NORTHWEST 0 TO 8 MPH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (0 MPH-FT) EARLY IN THE MORNING INCREASING  
TO FAIR (26600 MPH-FT) IN THE AFTERNOON.  
LVORI...............5.  
ADI.................3 INCREASING TO 16 LATE IN THE MORNING, THEN  
INCREASING TO 33 LATE IN THE MORNING DECREASING  
TO 16 LATE IN THE AFTERNOON DECREASING TO 8.  
HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR VERY LOW TO LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE  
PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM  
SKY (%).........26 29 32 34 36 43  
WEATHER COV.....PATCHY S CHC  
WEATHER TYPE....FOG NONE NONE NONE NONE RNSHWR  
TSTM COV........ S CHC  
CWR.............0 10 10 10 10 20  
TEMP............71 72 81 89 92 93  
RH..............93 93 72 55 47 45  
20 FT WIND......NE 0 NE 1 N 2 N 2 NE 1 E 2  
20 FT WIND GUST. 2  
MIX HGT (FT)....300 300 2000 4000 6200 5800  
MIXING WIND......NE 0 NE 1 N 7 N 8 N 5 NW 2  
LVORI...........8 8 3 1 2 2  
ADI.............0 1 16 37 28 12  
HAINES INDEX....3 3 3 3 4 4  
VRATE MPH-FT/1K.0 0 13 31 25 11  
 

 
FORECASTER...HYSELL  
REQUESTED BY...NICHOLAS BOWMAN  
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED  
.TAG 1915293.0/RNK  
.DELDT 09/11/19  
.FORMATTERVERSION 1.0.26  
 
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