518
FXUS61 KLWX 151920
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
220 PM EST SUN FEB 15 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
RAIN HAS OVERSPREAD ALL BUT NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND AS OF ABOUT 2
PM THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW IS BEING OBSERVED NEAR AND ABOVE 4000
FEET ELEVATION IN THE APPALACHIANS, WITH SNOW LEVELS POSSIBLY
DROPPING TO AROUND 1500 TO 2500 FEET BEFORE ENDING LATER THIS
EVENING.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) A CHILLY RAIN WILL PERSIST INTO TONIGHT.
- 2) TWO FRONTAL BOUNDARIES MAY BRING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
VARIABLE TEMPERATURES LATER THIS WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...A CHILLY RAIN WILL PERSIST INTO TONIGHT.
AS OF ABOUT 19Z/2PM EST, PRECIPITATION (IN THE FORM OF A CHILLY
RAIN) HAVE OVERSPREAD ALL BUT NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND. OVER THE
CREST OF THE APPALACHIANS, A WET SNOW MIXED WITH RAIN AT TIMES
WAS BEING OBSERVED ROUGHLY ABOVE 4000 FEET IN ELEVATION. THESE
LOCALIZED PEAKS IN THE MOUNTAINS COULD END UP WITH 1-3" OF WET
SNOW BEFORE PRECIPITATION EXITS THIS EVENING. ELSEWHERE,
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH
ACROSS NORTHERN MARYLAND TO AROUND THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH
FROM THE CENTRAL VIRGINIA PIEDMONT TO SOUTHERN MARYLAND.
THIS RAIN WILL AID IN FURTHER SNOW/ICE MELT, BUT WITH THE
ONGOING DROUGHT, LOW RIVER AND STREAM LEVELS, AND MODEST
RAINFALL RATES, WIDESPREAD FLOODING ISSUES ARE NOT EXPECTED.
LATER TONIGHT ONCE PRECIPITATION ENDS, LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
LINGER. ABUNDANT LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE EXPECTED, WITH SOME
DENSE FOG POSSIBLE.
KEY MESSAGE 2...TWO FRONTAL BOUNDARIES MAY BRING ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND VARIABLE TEMPERATURES LATER THIS WEEK.
A SURFACE LOW FORMING OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL CAUSE A WARM
FRONT TO BUILD EASTWARD OVER THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY, BRINGING
ADDITIONAL CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH
THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD GENERALLY BE WARMER THAN AVERAGE
THIS WEEK, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S POSSIBLE FOR A MAJORITY
OF THE CWA THROUGH THURSDAY. AFTER THIS FRONT PASSES THROUGH,
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL TAKE OVER, AS AN ADDITIONAL SURFACE LOW
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION BEGINS TO TRACK NORTHEAST. THE
REGIONAL FRONTAL SETUP FOR THIS SECOND LOW IS STILL SHOWING A
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF MODEL VARIANCE DEPENDING ON THE BAROCLINIC
SETUP TO THE NORTH, BUT IN GENERAL THE CURRENT OUTLOOK SHOWS A
COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY, BRINGING
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CHANGES TO THIS FORECASTED TRACK, AS
ANY DEVIATIONS OR COOLING TRENDS IN THE TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK
COULD BRING ADDITIONAL SNOW/FREEZING RAIN POSSIBILITIES BACK FOR
THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH A MODERATE RAIN THIS
EVENING, WITH CIGS DROPPING TO IFR LEVELS BY ABOUT 23Z. ONCE
RAIN COMES TO AN END MID/LATE EVENING, THERE IS STILL A GOOD
MODEL SIGNAL FOR FOG TO DEVELOP. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING HOW LOW CIGS AND VSBY DROP TONIGHT, BUT IT IS VERY
LIKELY TO BE AT OR NEAR LIFR LEVELS (300-600 FT). SOME FOG WITH
VSBY LESS THAN 1/2SM IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT, BUT A LIGHT N WIND
MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TO PREVENT DENSE FOG OR MORE PERSISTENT LIFR
CIGS ESPECIALLY LATER AT NIGHT. IF WINDS ARE LIGHTER AND/OR
MOISTURE IS MORE ABUNDANT, THEN LIFR OR EVEN VLIFR COULD DEVELOP
ROUGHLY 02Z-09Z (NOTE: KCHO WAS ALREADY HAVING INTERMITTENT LIFR
CIGS BEGINNING JUST BEFORE 18Z/1PM EST, BUT THIS SEEMS TO BE
LOCALIZED IMMEDIATELY IN THE LEE OF THE BLUE RIDGE ATTM).
CONDITIONS WILL TAKE TIME TO IMPROVE ON MONDAY AS LOW CLOUDS HANG
AROUND MOST OF THE DAY. VFR CONDITIONS MAY RETURN MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY, THOUGH SOME LOW CLOUDS/FOG ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY DEPENDING ON THE DEPTH OF A COOL
AIR WEDGE LEFT IN PLACE. WINDS BECOME SE TO S MON NIGHT-TUE.
A WARM FRONT EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/THURSDAY MORNING COULD TEMPORARILY BRING SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS TO TERMINALS, ALONG WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS SW. AN
ADDITIONAL FRONT ON FRIDAY MAY AGAIN BRING DOWN VSBYS AND CIGS INTO
THE WEEKEND.
MARINE
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE WATERS THROUGH
TONIGHT. NORTH WINDS INCREASE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM,
ESPECIALLY OVER THE MIDDLE TO LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY
AFTERNOON TO ACCOUNT FOR NORTHERLY GUSTS OF 20-25 KNOTS.
FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS RETURN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY TEMPORARILY BRING WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS
BETWEEN WEDNESDAY-EARLY THURSDAY MORNING, AND SCAS CURRENTLY LOOK
LIKELY FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY DURING THEN. LOOKING
AHEAD, WINDS MAY PICK BACK UP A BIT AS A SECOND FRONT PASSES THROUGH
FRIDAY, BUT THE CURRENT MAXIMUM FORECASTED WIND GUSTS ARE ONLY 15
KNOTS AT THIS TIME. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR ON IF ADDITIONAL SCAS
ARE NECESSARY BY THEN.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE BRIEFLY IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING
LOW PRESSURE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL CAUSE SOME WATER
TO BOTTLE UP NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY. AS WINDS GO
LIGHT THEN TURN ONSHORE, TIDE LEVELS RISE THROUGH TUESDAY. THE
STOFS SHOWS THRESHOLD MINOR FLOODING AT ANNAPOLIS FOR BOTH HIGH
TIDE CYCLES TUESDAY (EARLY MORNING AND EARLY EVENING). THE SFAS
ENSEMBLE AND ESPECIALLY THE CBOFS ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD MINOR TIDAL FLOODING TUESDAY, BUT THIS SEEMS A BIT
HIGH GIVEN RELATIVELY LIGHT FLOW. MEANWHILE, ETSS/P-ETSS APPEAR
TO BE TOO "FLAT" WITH THE FLUCTUATIONS IN THE ANAMOLIES. LEANED
HEAVILY ON THE STOFS WITH A SLIGHT NOD TOWARD THE SUBDUED ETSS,
BUT WE WILL HAVE TO CLOSELY MONITOR JUST HOW MUCH WATER GETS
BOTTLED UP AT THE BOTTOM OF THE BAY ON MONDAY.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR
ANZ532>534-537-540>543.
DISCUSSION...DHOF/KRR/SRT
AVIATION...DHOF/KRR/SRT
MARINE...DHOF/KRR/SRT
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