647
FXUS61 KLWX 021956
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
256 PM EST FRI DEC 2 2022
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFFSHORE LATE THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND MOVE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS SUNDAY AND INTO
THE EARLY PART OF THE WORKWEEK. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS AND COLD FRONT
PASSAGES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BY MID-WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS AROUND THE MID-ATLANTIC OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS IT BEGINS TO MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT. LOW TO
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE BEEN MOVING IN FROM THE WEST OVER THE
LAST SEVERAL HOURS. CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO PACK IN LATER TONIGHT
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION ON
SATURDAY.
HIGHS FOR TODAY SHOULD TOP OUT AROUND SEASONABLE AVERAGES FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR IN THE 40S AND 50S FOR MOST. WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED
WHERE THE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHTER AS THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES AWAY
FROM BEING DIRECTLY OVERHEAD LIKE LAST NIGHT. FOR TONIGHT,
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW COUPLED WITH INCREASING CLOUDS WILL ALLOW
FOR A MILDER NIGHT COMPARED TO THURSDAY NIGHT. MOST AREAS SHOULD BE
IN THE MID 30S (HIGHER ELEVATIONS) TO LOW 40S ELSEWHERE.
PRECIPITATION MAY BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN AREAS BY 6-8Z
TONIGHT BEFORE MOVING FURTHER EAST.
SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
CROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A PRE-
FRONTAL PUSH OF MOISTURE DURING THE DAY STARTING EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. MOST HI-RES GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A LULL JUST BEHIND THE
INITIAL PRECIP AND THEN ANOTHER ONE FOLLOWING SHORTLY AFTER.
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS SHOULD BE BENEFICIAL FOR THE AREA WITH MOST
AREAS RECEIVING A QUARTER OF INCH TO HALF AN INCH BY THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE.
WINDS ON SATURDAY WILL BE GUSTY FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY. WITH
THE TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE FROM THE DEPARTING HIGH
PRESSURE AND INCOMING LOW PRESSURE. THE MOST LIKELY AREAS TO SEE THE
HIGHEST GUSTS WILL BE ALONG THE ALLEGHENY FRONT AND JUST EAST OF IT
ON THE DOWNSLOPE. GUSTS OF 45 TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN GRANT AND
PENDLETON COUNTIES IN WEST VIRGINIA WHERE A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED. WARM AIR ADVECTION FROM THE FRONTAL PASSAGE MAY KEEP THE
GUSTS MORE ISOLATED TO THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS WITHIN THE AREA. THERE
MAY BE A NEED FOR EXPANSION IN THE ADVISORY, SHOULD GUIDANCE BEGIN
TRENDING STRONGER LEADING UP TO THE EVENT.
AFTERNOON HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE WITH THE WAA IN
PLACE (50S AND LOW 60S FOR MOST). THESE ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS A POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS BUILDS BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. LOWS ON SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S ACROSS
THE EASTERN AREAS AND COLDER FURTHER WEST (20S FOR THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS).
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON SUNDAY AND NEAR SEASONABLE ON
MONDAY.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING CENTERED OVER CANADA WILL BE COMPETING
WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO
MAKING FOR A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. HOWEVER, THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BEGIN MILD AND DRY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF OUR AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY
WILL BE IN THE 40S TO 50S WITH OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S
TO 40S. AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES,
AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST.
BEGINNING TUESDAY MORNING, SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AND THE
WEATHER WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED UNTIL THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOLLOWING THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. ON TUESDAY MORNING, THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE ARRIVAL TIME OF THE PRECIPITATION. IF PRECIPITATION
FALLS IN THE EARLY HOURS OF THE MORNING, TEMPERATURES MAY BE COLD
ENOUGH FOR THOSE WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS AND NEAR NORTHERN
MARYLAND TO SEE A WINTRY MIX. MOST OF THE AREA WILL SEE RAIN DUE TO
WARMER TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES BEFORE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ARE
TRENDING WARMER WITH DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S (UPPER 40S
AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS) FOR MOST ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.FOLLOWING
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT, TEMPERATURES ARE TRENDING
COOLER FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
HIGH PRESSURE STILL INFLUENCING THE REGION. WINDS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH GUSTS 10 TO 15 KNOTS
POSSIBLE FOR THE TERMINALS. LATER THIS EVENING, CLOUDS INCREASE FROM
THE WEST AND WILL LIKELY BRING LOWER CIGS BY 00Z. PERIODS OF MVFR TO
IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY BY TOMORROW MORNING FROM WEST TO EAST
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 17Z TO 19Z WITH THE WESTERN TERMINALS
SEEING IMPROVEMENTS EARLIER THAN THE CORRIDOR TERMINALS. GUSTY
WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE PRESENT THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
BEFORE SUBSIDING ONCE THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. LLWS
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET IN PLACE FOR THE
MORNING HOURS ON SATURDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY BEFORE RAIN CHANCES RETURN ON
TUESDAY. CONDITIONS MAY BE SUB-VFR EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AND DURING
THE DAY.
MARINE
SCA WINDS WILL BEGIN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES FURTHER OFFSHORE. AN INCOMING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
WATERS DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS MAY PRODUCE
34+ KNOT WINDS IN THEM, ESPECIALLY THE NON-CONVECTIVE LINE THAT MAY
COME THROUGH THE WATERS LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SMW'S MAY BE NEEDED
DURING THIS PASSAGE. GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE IN THE POST-FRONTAL
AIRMASS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS AND WINDS DIMINISH BELOW SCA CRITERIA.
SOUTHEAST WINDS ON MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SCA CRITERIA. AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF OUR AREA AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST, WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY AND MAY BE SCA CRITERIA ON
TUESDAY.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. ANOMALIES WILL INCREASE DURING THIS TIME,
ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE BAY. A FEW LOCATIONS MAY NEAR
ACTION STAGE , BUT A SOUTHWESTERLY TRAJECTORY TO THE WIND MAY LIMIT
HOW MUCH WATER CAN PILE UP. THE MAJORITY OF SURGE GUIDANCE PREDICTS
WATER LEVELS WELL BELOW MINOR FLOOD THRESHOLDS. OFFSHORE WINDS WILL
CAUSE ANOMALIES TO FALL LATER SATURDAY NIGHT.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR WVZ501-505.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ530>533-
538>542.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST
SATURDAY FOR ANZ534>537-543.
SYNOPSIS...ADM
NEAR TERM...ADM
SHORT TERM...ADM
LONG TERM...AVS
AVIATION...AVS/ADM
MARINE...AVS/ADM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...EST/ADM
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