717
FXUS61 KLWX 271916
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
316 PM EDT SUN APR 27 2025
SYNOPSIS
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY
BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE. A WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY WHILE
ANOTHER FRONT WILL WAVER ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH ON FRIDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNING FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
THE GRADIENT BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND
HIGH PRESSURE NEAR DETROIT CONTINUES TO RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS
THIS AFTERNOON. THESE WINDS SHOULD WANE RATHER QUICKLY WITH
SUNSET. CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE SECOND HALF
OF THE NIGHT AS THE HIGH SETTLES OVERHEAD, RESULTING IN
FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. GIVEN DEW POINTS IN
THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S, SHELTERED VALLEYS MAY GET RATHER
COLD. IT'S POSSIBLE THAT IT WILL BE TOO DRY FOR FROST
FORMATION, BUT WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO NEAR FREEZING,
THOUGHT IT WAS PRUDENT TO HAVE A FROST ADVISORY FOR THE CENTRAL
SHENANDOAH VALLEY (THE GROWING SEASON HASN'T STARTED FOR
LOCATIONS TO THE WEST). ELSEWHERE, LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S
AND 40S, REMAINING NEAR 50 IN THE URBAN CENTERS AND BAYSHORE.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
THE HIGH WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE TO THE EAST MONDAY WHILE UPPER
RIDGING BUILDS FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN A WARMING
TREND, ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
70S WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.
RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE INTO TUESDAY, WITH THE WARM
ADVECTION PATTERN BOOSTING TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL. MOST
LOCATIONS WILL REACH THE 80S. LOW PRESSURE LIFTING NORTHEAST OF
THE GREAT LAKES WILL SEND A COLD FRONT TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY.
LOCALLY, THERE IS SOME QUESTION HOW LONG THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
REMAIN CAPPED. EARLIER INITIATION COULD RESULT IN SOME ATTENDANT
SEVERE WEATHER RISK IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CWA GIVEN
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND SHEAR PRESENT. HOWEVER, IT'S POSSIBLE
CONVECTION REMAINS FARTHER UPSTREAM ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE, WITH
ONLY SOME REMNANTS REACHING THE AREA DURING THE EVENING OR
OVERNIGHT...WHICH WOULD CARRY A LOWER SEVERE RISK. IT DOES
APPEAR THAT ACTIVITY WILL STRUGGLE TO HOLD TOGETHER EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY ENTER THE AREA
TOWARD WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE CLOUDS AND HIGHER DEW POINTS WILL
RESULT IN LOWS ONLY FALLING INTO THE 60S.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
A WARM AND ACTIVE MIDDLE TO LATE PART OF THE WEEK WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST EACH DAY. DRY AND COOLER NEXT WEEKEND.
THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING, AND
SLOWLY SAGS SOUTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TO EVENING. THE POSITION OF
THE FRONT IS GOING TO PLAY A KEY ROLE IN WHERE MORE ROBUST
THUNDERSTORMS CAN DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON TO EVENING. SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE TO THE LOW TO MID 80S, WITH DEW
POINTS IN THE LOW 60S. WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR (30-35 KNOTS) AND
MODEST INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY SUPPORT SOME ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN WHETHER ANY STORMS BECOME STRONG TO
SEVERE, THOUGH THE BEST CHANCE FOR THAT WILL BE SOUTH OF I-66.
THE FRONT LIKELY DOES NOT COMPLETELY CLEAR THE AREA, INSTEAD BEGINS
TO LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON THURSDAY WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS
RETURNING. A PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH QUICKLY MOVES DISTURBANCE
ALOFT MOVES FROM THE MID-SOUTH/OH VALLEY THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING THAT WILL
LIKELY BE OF GREATER COVERAGE THAN WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT QUICKLY MOVE IN FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY,
BRINGING YET ANOTHER ROUND OF ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS NEXT WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ATOP
THE REGION. TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE 60S TO 70S, WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S.
AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY. NW WINDS GUSTING TO
30 KT WILL SUBSIDE FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVERHEAD. LIGHT SOUTH WINDS DEVELOP MONDAY AFTER THE HIGH
MOVES TO THE EAST. GUSTS COULD INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KT TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE THAT SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REACH
THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. SOME LOWER CLOUDS MAY ALSO
ACCOMPANY A DESCENDING COLD FRONT. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR
BOTH PHENOMENA WOULD BE AT MRB.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
HOWEVER, THERE WILL BE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EACH DAY
DURING THE AFTERNOON TO EVENING HOURS. ANY STORM THAT MOVES OVER A
TERMINAL COULD RESULT IN BRIEF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AND GUSTY
WINDS.
MARINE
HIGH END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS (NORTHWESTERLY GUSTS
TO 30 KT) WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE
DEPARTS MAINE. SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTS EXCEEDING 30 KT CONTINUE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAY AND UPPER TIDAL POTOMAC.
WHILE NARROWER/SHELTERED WATERS SHOULD HAVE WINDS SUBSIDE
QUICKLY THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS CLOSER, A NORTHERLY
LOW LEVEL WIND OF AROUND 25 KT WILL REMAIN ALIGNED ALONG THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY. WITH AIR TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW WATER
TEMPERATURES, FAVORABLE MIXING AND CHANNELING SHOULD BRING SOME
OF THESE HIGHER WINDS TO THE SURFACE. ADVISORIES CONTINUE FOR
THIS AREA INTO THE NIGHT.
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP WINDS ON THE LIGHTER SIDE
MONDAY. AS THIS RIDGE RETREATS OFFSHORE, WINDS RETURN TO
SOUTHERLY BY MONDAY EVENING. SOME CHANNELING EFFECTS MAY OCCUR
MONDAY NIGHT, WHICH MAY WARRANT ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS. A GREATER CHANCE FOR
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON ALL WATERS WILL OCCUR ON TUESDAY.
OVERALL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH THROUGH THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY, THEN LIFTS BACK NORTH AS WARM FRONT ON
THURSDAY. ANY IMPACT TO MARINERS LOOKS TO BE FROM DAILY CHANCES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. MOST OF THESE
STORMS WILL OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON TO EVENING HOURS.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR MDZ008.
VA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR VAZ025>027-029.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ530>532-
539>541.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ533-534-537-
543.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ535-
536-538-542.
SYNOPSIS...ADS
NEAR TERM...ADS
SHORT TERM...ADS
LONG TERM...KRR
AVIATION...ADS/KRR
MARINE...ADS/KRR
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