259
FXUS61 KLWX 090100
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
900 PM EDT WED JUL 8 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ANNAPOLIS FOR
TONIGHT'S HIGH TIDE. WE ARE CONTINUING TO MONITOR SHOWERS IN
WESTERN MD AND THE EASTERN PANHANDLE OF WV THIS EVENING WITH
ADDITIONAL POP UP SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NIGHT. NO CHANGES
WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) THUNDERSTORMS, SOME OF WHICH MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND
HEAVY RAIN, ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH SATURDAY.
- 2) DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK, ALONG WITH A
SLIGHT UPTICK IN TEMPERATURES.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...THUNDERSTORMS, SOME OF WHICH MAY PRODUCE
DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN, ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH FRIDAY.
A FRONTAL ZONE HAS STALLED OUT ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA, ARCING
NORTHWARD ALONG THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS
POSITIONED TO THE NORTH, WITH ONSHORE FLOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THE
ABUNDANCE OF LOW CLOUDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. MOST SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON, CLOSER TO THE
FRONTAL ZONE. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS LOW. HOWEVER,
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN HIGH IN THIS ZONE, AND SLOW
STORM MOTIONS COULD RESULT IN HEAVY RAINFALL TOTALS. THIS COULD
RESULT IN AN ISOLATED INSTANCE OF FLOODING, ESPECIALLY IF IT
FALLS IN AN AREA WHICH HAS RECENTLY SEEN HEAVY RAIN.
LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY FILL BACK IN TONIGHT, WITH SOME FOG OR
MIST POSSIBLE IN SOME LOCATIONS. THERE WILL ALSO BE AN
OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME SHOWERS AND PERHAPS EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT THROUGH MID THURSDAY MORNING
DUE TO WARM ADVECTION AND PVA ACROSS THE STALLED FRONTAL ZONE.
THIS ACTIVITY SHOULDN'T BE HAZARDOUS, BUT THERE MAY BE SOME
BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TODAY WILL OPEN AND
EJECT EASTWARD ON FRIDAY. THE FRONTAL ZONE WILL LIKELY LIFT
NORTHWARD, ALLOWING DEEPER MOISTURE TO ADVECT OVER THE REGION
ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER TEMPERATURES. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
MAY ALSO DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY. ALL COMBINED, CONVECTION
WILL LIKELY INITIATE OVER THE TERRAIN AND WITHIN A PRESSURE
TROUGH DURING THE MIDDAY HOURS, SPREADING EASTWARD THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE HIGH ENOUGH, COMBINED WITH
SHEAR UP TO 30 KT, THAT ACTIVITY COULD CONGEAL INTO CLUSTERS
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. THIS COULD RESULT IN STRONG TO DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS. GIVEN THE MOIST PROFILES AND WEAK LOW LEVEL WINDS,
HIGHER END WIND DAMAGE IS LESS LIKELY COMPARED TO SOME RECENT
EVENTS. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN THE OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL, WITH SPC INDICATING A SLIGHT RISK NOW ALONG THE I-95
CORRIDOR. EVEN THOUGH STORMS WILL HAVE SOME FORWARD MOTION,
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER 2 INCHES WILL LEAD TO VERY HEAVY
RAIN RATES. THUS ANY REPETITIVE OR CONGLOMERATING STORMS COULD
RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING, ESPECIALLY IF THE RAIN WERE TO FALL IN
MORE SENSITIVE AREAS. WPC HAS INCREASED THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OUTLOOK TO SLIGHT FOR A LARGE PART OF THE AREA. STORMS WILL
LIKELY QUICKLY EXIT DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY TICK UP A BIT MORE ON FRIDAY, WITH SOME
AREAS CROSSING INTO THE 90S. A MORE PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL APPROACH, HELPING PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE
AREA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AGAIN IN THE
WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS, ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME QUESTION IN
COVERAGE AND STRENGTH GIVEN UNIDIRECTIONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALONG
WITH LOWER INSTABILITY COMPARED TO THURSDAY. WITH THAT SAID,
THERE WILL BE SOME MENTIONABLE SHEAR WITH THE TROUGH, AND STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN RATES. THUS THERE COULD
BE AN ATTENDANT RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND FLOODING DEPENDING
ON HOW THE DETAILS UNFOLD.
THE FRONT WILL REMAIN NEARBY ON SATURDAY. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL LINGER, ALTHOUGH THE EXACT DETAILS
BECOME MORE UNCERTAIN BY THIS POINT. TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO
LIKELY LOWER WITH THE FRONT OVERHEAD.
KEY MESSAGE 2...DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK, ALONG
WITH A SLIGHT UPTICK IN TEMPERATURES.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY, ALONG WITH A BROAD UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE FORMING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. HEIGHTS BEGIN TO BUILD
TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THE UPSTREAM RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO
EXPAND EASTWARD. THIS WILL LEAD TO A GRADUAL DECREASE IN RAIN &
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EARLY NEXT WEEK, AS WELL AS A GRADUAL UPTICK IN
TEMPERATURE FORECASTS. AFTER FALLING TO THE LOW 80S ON SUNDAY IN THE
WAKE OF SATURDAY'S COLD FRONT, HIGHS COULD REACH THE LOW-TO-MID 90S
BY MIDWEEK, WHICH WILL OVERALL BE A RETURN TO NEAR-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR THIS PERIOD OF THE SUMMER. CLOUD COVER COULD STILL
BE SLOW TO CLEAR ON SUNDAY, BUT SHOULD GRADUALLY BECOME SUNNIER BY
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
LOOKING AHEAD, A DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO FORM OVER THE
NORTHEAST BY MIDWEEK, WHICH COULD INTRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES
AS IT PASSES THROUGH BY LATE NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
LOW CLOUDS ARE SLOWLY LIFTING AND SCATTERING OUT THIS AFTERNOON,
ALTHOUGH IT MAY TAKE A COUPLE MORE HOURS FOR ALL LOCATIONS TO
RETURN TO VFR. THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE AT CHO. WHILE
CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED ENOUGH FOR A TAF MENTION, IT IS
UNCERTAIN HOW WELL THUNDERSTORMS HOLD TOGETHER CROSSING THE BLUE
RIDGE INTO A SLIGHTLY MORE STABLE AIRMASS. WINDS GRADUALLY
SHIFT TO SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY BY THIS EVENING. ANOTHER ROUND
OF LOW CLOUDS ARE LOOKING LIKELY TONIGHT, AND SOME PATCHY
FOG/MIST IS ALSO POSSIBLE TOWARD DAWN. THERE IS ALSO AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
CROSSING THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF A WARM FRONT LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH MID MORNING THURSDAY. GIVEN MODEL DISAGREEMENT IN TIMING
AND COVERAGE, ONLY INCLUDED A PROB30 FOR NOW. EXPECT A RETURN TO
VFR CONDITIONS BY MID MORNING THURSDAY.
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING NEAR MRB
EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE PROGRESSING EAST ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING. STRONG WIND GUSTS AND
VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE. FOG MAY FORM IN THE WAKE OF
THE STORMS THURSDAY NIGHT.
THERE WILL BE A THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS A
COLD FRONT SLOWLY SETTLES ACROSS THE AREA. AFTER THE FRONT
PASSES TO THE SOUTH EARLY SUNDAY, PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. NORTHERLY WINDS SHIFT EASTERLY BY
SUNDAY EVENING.
MARINE
A WAVERING FRONT AND WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL RESULT IN
SUB-ADVISORY WINDS THROUGH FRIDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY WILL SHIFT WESTERLY FRIDAY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE OF
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING.
A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH ON SATURDAY, POTENTIALLY CAUSING A FEW
SHOWERS OVER THE WATERS AND THUNDERSTORM-ASSOCIATED GUSTS. OUTSIDE
OF THUNDERSTORMS, WINDS STAY BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WINDS FLOW NORTHWESTERLY SATURDAY
BEFORE SHIFTING EASTERLY BY SUNDAY EVENING.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
ANOMALIES ARE AROUND 1-1.5 FEET THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL TURN
MORE SOUTHERLY TONIGHT, LEADING TO A FURTHER UPTICK IN WATER
LEVELS. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN NEAR MINOR FLOODING OF
VULNERABLE SHORELINE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. ANNAPOLIS
IS MOST LIKELY TO REACH THE MINOR FLOOD THRESHOLD, AND A COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR TONIGHT'S HIGH TIDE. HAVRE DE
GRACE WILL ALSO BE CLOSE. A GRADUAL DECLINE IN WATER LEVELS IS
EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR MDZ014.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ADS/AVS/SRT
AVIATION...ADS/SRT
MARINE...ADS/SRT
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