464
FXUS61 KLWX 110802
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
302 AM EST WED FEB 11 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY FOR
THIS WEEKEND AS CONFIDENCE DECREASES FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION. A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM TODAY FOR THE
ALLEGHENIES.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING SOME WINTRY PRECIPITATION
TO PORTIONS OF THE REGION SUNDAY, BUT CONFIDENCE IS
DECREASING.
- 2)UPSLOPE WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ALONG THE
ALLEGHENIES IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. MILD WEATHER EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING SOME WINTRY
PRECIPITATION TO PORTIONS OF THE REGION SUNDAY, BUT CONFIDENCE IS
DECREASING.
THE LATE EVENING MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TO TREND DOWN, WHILE
ALSO STILL SHOWING A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY, WITH REGARDS TO THE
WEEKEND SYSTEM. LOOKING AT THE OVERALL BLEND OF ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE,
PROBABILITIES CONTINUE TO DROP ALL ACROSS THE REGION. STILL, SOME
MEMBERS DO CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME SNOW, EVEN A FEW WITH LARGE
AMOUNTS, BUT THE LIKELIHOOD IS DROPPING RAPIDLY. THIS IS DUE TO AN
OVERALL TREND TOWARDS A TRACK FURTHER SOUTH, WHICH LIKELY REDUCES
OUR THREAT FOR MUCH PRECIPITATION THIS FAR NORTH AT ALL. THERE HAS
AT LEAST BEEN AT LEAST SOME CONSOLIDATION ON TIMING, WITH A BIT MORE
OF A FOCUS ON THE SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT TIMEFRAME, MEANING SATURDAY
MAY ACTUALLY TURN OUT TO BE A DECENT DAY ACROSS THE REGION WITH ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. THIS WILL ALSO BRING ITS OWN DOUBTS IN TERMS
OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL, AS THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME SUBSTANTIAL
THERMODYNAMIC STRUGGLES WITH THIS SYSTEM TO PRODUCE ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL, BARRING A SUBSTANTIAL CHANGE IN THE COMING DAYS.
ALL BEING SAID, THERE IS STILL A NON-ZERO THREAT FOR A WINTER STORM
THIS WEEKEND, WITH THE FAVORED AREAS BEING WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
SO, IT SHOULDN'T BE COMPLETELY DISCOUNTED YET, BUT IF THESE TRENDS
CONTINUE, THAT CONVERSATION MAY HAVE TO BE HAD IN THE NOT SO DISTANT
FUTURE. KEEP CHECKING THE DISCUSSION IN THE COMING DAYS TO SEE HOW
THINGS EVOLVE WITH THIS FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGE 2...UPSLOPE WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ALONG THE
ALLEGHENIES IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. MILD WEATHER EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT EXITING THE REGION, SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
WHILE THIS YIELD MILD AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE AREA,
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING UPSLOPE WINTRY PRECIPITATION
TO THE ALLEGHENIES.
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ALLEGHENIES
UNTIL 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW SHOWERS AND FREEZING DRIZZLE ARE
EXPECTED WITH TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS UP TO ONE INCH AND ICE
ACCUMULATIONS AROUND A LIGHT GLAZE. IN ADDITION TO MIXED
PRECIPITATION, GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH WINDS
GUSTING AS HIGH AS 45 MPH. WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 45 AND 50 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE, ALTHOUGH ARE EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED AND SPORADIC
ACROSS THE RIDGES.
TEMPERATURES COOL THROUGH THURSDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
30S AND 40S (20S MTNS). AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD THROUGH
FRIDAY, WINDS DIMINISH LATER IN THE WEEK AND TEMPERATURES BEGIN
TO MODERATE.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE TERMINALS THROUGH FRIDAY AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. IN THE WAKE OF A
COLD FRONT, GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 20 TO 30 KTS ARE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT. GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS CONTINUE THURSDAY, GUSTING UP TO 25 KNOTS IN THE
AFTERNOON. AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVERHEAD, WINDS DIMINISH
SLIGHTLY ON FRIDAY WITH NW WINDS GUSTING UP TO 15 KNOTS IN THE
AFTERNOON AND BECOMING LIGHT OVERNIGHT.
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE SATURDAY ALTHOUGH A NEARBY LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM BRINGS PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. RAIN AND POSSIBLY WINTRY
PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST ACROSS THE TERMINALS SUNDAY. FORECAST
REMAINS UNCERTAIN, ALTHOUGH RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE.
MARINE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE WATERS
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT DUE TO GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE WAKE
OF A COLD FRONT. WINDS BEGIN TO DIMINISH ON FRIDAY AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE WATERS. NORTHWEST WINDS ON FRIDAY
SHIFT TO WESTERLY SATURDAY BEFORE BECOMING EASTERLY SUNDAY. WINDS
REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM EST
THURSDAY FOR MDZ008.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MDZ509.
VA...NONE.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
WVZ501-505.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM EST
THURSDAY FOR ANZ530>543.
DISCUSSION...AVS/CJL
AVIATION...AVS/CJL
MARINE...AVS/CJL
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page