859
FXUS61 KLWX 220754
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
354 AM EDT MON OCT 22 2018
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY THEN PUSH OFFSHORE
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT, APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES, WILL
CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY. A SECOND AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP AND PERSIST THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. LOW
PRESSURE MAY APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. OR
TENNESSEE VALLEY BY NEXT WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
CLEAR SKIES AND GREAT RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL LEAD TO SOME
AREAS OF FROST AND OTHER AREAS OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES EARLY
THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE 30S AREAWIDE,
EXCEPT WHERE THE GROWING SEASON HAS ALREADY ENDED...WHERE WE
HAVE SOME PATCHES OF FROST. TEMPERATURES IN THESE AREAS WILL
DROP INTO THE 20S.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. A MODERATING
TREND IN TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE 50S, WITH PERHAPS SOME INCREASE
IN MID- UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST WILL HAVE A BIG INFLUENCE THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE
40S.
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH TUESDAY. THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL BE TOO DRY TO PRODUCE ANY PRECIPITATION. MOSTLY
CLEAR AND COOL TUESDAY NIGHT.
BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE USHERING IN A REINFORCING
SHOT OF COOL AIR WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC FROM THE GREAT LAKES.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ON THURSDAY, HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN PLACE OVER THE
REGION AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVE TO THE NORTH. SKIES WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR WITH WINDS CONTINUING OUT OF THE NORTH. DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH ONLY LIGHT WINDS. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE BELOW AVERAGE IN THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S.
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, WILL BE CHILLY IN THE
UPPER 20 AND INTO THE 30S.
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH WILL
START TO BREAK DOWN AS A UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BUILDS INTO THE
TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY AND THE SMOKEY MOUNTAINS. A BROAD UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE POSITIONED OVER EASTERN CANADA AND NORTHERN
MAINE. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER TENNESSEE AND KENTUCKY IS
FORECAST TO BROADEN AND EXPAND FURTHER SOUTHWARD INTO
MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA. THIS WILL LEAD TO A TAPPING OF THE WARM
AND MOIST AIR FROM THE GULF MEXICO. THE MODELS ARE POINTING TO
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORMING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO ON
THURSDAY AND MOVING EAST TO NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD FLORIDA AND
GEORGIA EARLY ON FRIDAY. THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
GET CAUGHT UP ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE EASTERN SEA BOARD. BOTH THE 00Z GFS AND
EURO AGREE THAT A COASTAL STORM WILL FORM AND MOVE NORTHWARD
ALONG THE EAST COAST. THE GFS TAKES THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
KICKS IT EASTWARD FORCING THE COASTAL STORM FURTHER OFF THE
COAST WHILE THE EURO KEEP THE TROUGH FURTHER INLAND OVER
ARKANSAS AND TENNESSEE. THE EURO IS WETTER AND FASTER THAN THE
GFS. THE EURO BRINGS THE COASTAL STORM NORTHWARD AND MOVES
PRECIPITATION INTO OUR REGION BY 18Z (2PM) ON FRIDAY. THE GFS
BRINGS THE OUTER BANDS OF PRECIPITATION INTO THE REGION AROUND
6Z (2AM) SATURDAY MORNING AND REMAINS FURTHER OFF THE COAST
LEADING TO LESSER RAIN EVENT. BOTH MODELS AGREE THAT SOME
SEMBLANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY OCCUR ON SATURDAY WITH
THERE BEING A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION STARTING SOMETIME LATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. THE 1000 TO 500MB THICKNESSES
SEEM TO INDICATE THAT THIS WEATHER EVENT SHOULD BE MAINLY A RAIN
EVENT WITH SOME SNOW POTENTIAL LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY FOR
THE HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS. A SLIGHT WARM UP WILL OCCUR FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY AS WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY.
SUNDAY, THE COASTAL STORM WILL SHIFT FURTHER NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF
OUR AREA. SOME LINGERINGS RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY. THE GFS TRIES TO BRING A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHILE THE EURO TRIES TO KEEP
THIS BOUNDARY MAINLY DRY. WINDS WILL DEPEND ON THE POSITION OF THE
COASTAL LOW BUT THEY SHOULD BE MAINLY OUT OF THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST.
AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE
PASSES OVERHEAD AND A DRY COLD FRONT CROSSES THE TERMINALS
TUESDAY.
A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE PUSHING TO THE EAST.
WINDS WILL TURN WEST AGAIN ON TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE TERMINALS. HOWEVER, MOISTURE IS SHALLOW. WHILE THERE SHOULD
BE A PERIOD OF CEILINGS LATE TUESDAY, THOSE CIGS SHOULD STILL BE
VFR.
MAINLY VFR WED AND WED NIGHT IN A NORTHWEST FLOW.
ON THURSDAY, HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN PLACE OVER THE
REGION. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTH. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR
WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
FRIDAY, WINDS WILL SLOWLY BECOME SOUTHERLY BUT REMAIN LIGHT. SKIES
WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR TO START THE DAY BUT CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE
INTO THE AFTERNOON PERIODS. RAIN WILL POTENTIAL LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING FOR CENTRAL VIRGINIA. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
MARINE
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH EARLY TODAY AND BECOME LIGHT THIS
AFTERNOON.
IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING HIGH, GUIDANCE ATTEMPTING TO MIX
SOME 20 KT GUSTS DUE TO SOUTHERLY CHANNELING IN THE MAIN CHANNEL
OF THE BAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR TONIGHT.
BETTER MIXING/OPPORTUNITY FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
COMES LATE TUESDAY IN THE WAKE OF A PASSING COLD FRONT. GUSTY
NW WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS ARE LIKELY THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEHIND
THIS FRONT.
LIGHT WINDS OUT OF THE NORTH WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ON THURSDAY.
ON FRIDAY, WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS. RAIN WILL
BE POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO EVENING FOR THE SOUTHERN
CHESAPEAKE BAY AREAS.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
WATER LEVELS SHOULD BEGIN TO GRADUALLY RECOVER TO NEAR
ASTRONOMICAL NORMS BY TUESDAY. WATER WILL SLOSH BACK UP THE BAY
WHEN WINDS GO LIGHT TODAY. WHILE THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO CAUSE
ANY FLOODING ISSUES, ANOMALIES COULD OSCILLATE TO NEAR OR A
LITTLE ABOVE ASTRO NORMS QUICKER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR DCZ001.
MD...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ003-004-503.
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ005-006-011-
013-014-016>018-504>508.
VA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ025-036>040-
050>052-055-056-501-502-505>508.
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ053-054-057.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
ANZ532>534-537-540-541-543.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT
TUESDAY FOR ANZ531>534-537-539>543.
SYNOPSIS...KLW
NEAR TERM...KLW
SHORT TERM...KLW
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...KLW/JMG
MARINE...KLW/JMG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...KLW
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