905
FXUS61 KLWX 181500
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1000 AM EST SUN JAN 18 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN TRIMMED TO NORTHEASTERN
MARYLAND.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TODAY, WITH
A SECOND ROUND OF RAIN AND SNOW POSSIBLE ALONG AND EAST OF
INTERSTATE 95 THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
- 2) VERY COLD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
CONTINUING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
- 3) A WINTRY PRECIPITATION THREAT MAY RE-EMERGE BY
LATE THIS WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
TODAY, WITH A SECOND ROUND OF RAIN AND SNOW POSSIBLE ALONG AND
EAST OF INTERSTATE 95 THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
THE FIRST ROUND OF PRECIPITATION HAS EXITED THE AREA. HOWEVER,
THERE COULD STILL BE SOME SPOTTY FLURRIES, OR EVEN FREEZING
DRIZZLE/MIST AS THE DGZ DRIES OUT. THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR THIS
TO OCCUR APPEARS TO BE ACROSS NORTHERN MARYLAND. AT 10 AM,
SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE LARGELY LIMITED TO WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE AND SOME SPOTS ACROSS NORTHERN MARYLAND THAT SAW
STEADIER SNOW EARLIER. THUS EXPECT MINIMAL IMPACTS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE MORNING. LIKEWISE, THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
HAS BEEN TRIMMED TO HARFORD AND CECIL COUNTIES, WHICH IS THE
AREA THAT IS HAVING SOME RESIDUAL IMPACTS FROM THIS MORNING'S
SNOW AND IS MOST LIKELY TO SEE ADDITIONAL SNOW WITH THE SECOND
ROUND. SOME PATCHY FOG EXISTS FOR AREAS WITH SNOW COVER, BUT
THIS SHOULD CLEAR UP AS NORTHWEST WINDS KICK IN THIS AFTERNOON.
HEADING INTO THIS AFTERNOON, A FRONTAL WAVE OF SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE EXITING THE
SOUTHEAST. THIS LOW WILL RIDE UP AND OFF THE COAST THROUGH THIS
EVENING, WITH PRECIP ON ITS WESTERN PERIPHERY LIKELY FILLING
BACK IN TO ABOUT I-95. INCOMING DRY AIR FROM THE WEST SHOULD
PREVENT MUCH FURTHER WESTWARD EXPANSION BARRING ANY UNFORESEEN
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THE LOW TRACK/STRENGTH. THIS PRECIP
SHOULD BE MOSTLY SNOW GIVEN COLD AIR ADVECTION, ALTHOUGH IT
COULD START AS RAINACROSSS SOUTHERN MARYLAND. DOWNSLOPE DRYING
EFFECTS MAY BE MINIMIZED GIVEN (1) A MORE NORTHERLY VS.
NORTHWESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE LOW- LEVEL WIND, (2) ITS LIGHT
SPEED, AND (3) DISTANCE FROM THE TERRAIN ALONG THE WESTERN SHORE
OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY (EAST OF I-95 ESSENTIALLY). THEREFORE,
ANTICIPATE ACCUMULATING SNOW WITH THIS SECOND WAVE MAINLY EAST
OF I-95 THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. IF THIS SECOND
BAND DOES NOT MATERIALIZE INTO CECIL AND HARFORD COUNTIES, THE
ADVISORY WILL BE CANCELED EARLY.
LOW PRESSURE PULLS AWAY AND PRECIPITATION ENDS EARLY THIS
EVENING. GIVEN COLD TEMPERATURES AND NOT A LOT OF WIND
ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING, ANY RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL LIKELY
REFREEZE ON UNTREATED SURFACES OVERNIGHT GIVEN LOW TEMPERATURES
FROM THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S.
KEY MESSAGE 2...VERY COLD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
CONTINUING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL CROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY, SENDING
TEMPERATURES TUMBLING TO SOME OF THEIR COLDEST VALUES SO FAR
THIS SEASON COME TUESDAY MORNING. THE FRONT WILL COME THROUGH
LARGELY DRY, THOUGH SOME MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AS
IT CROSSES THE APPALACHIANS. TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE TEENS
AND SINGLE DIGITS COMBINED WITH BLUSTERY NORTHWEST WINDS MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILLS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS ARE EITHER SIDE OF 0, WITH NEGATIVE TEENS AND 20S
OVER THE ALLEGHENIES.
FOLLOWING THE FRONT, TUESDAY IS GOING TO BE THE COLDEST DAY OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD BY FAR. WOULD NOT EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES
TO EXCEED 30 DEGREES ANYWHERE, WITH TEENS AND 20S IN THE
MOUNTAINS. IT WILL BE PARTICULARLY COLD TUESDAY NIGHT AS WELL
WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS. WHILE NOT AS WINDY,
THERE WILL STILL BE JUST ENOUGH TO KEEP WIND CHILLS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS FOR MOST (NEGATIVES IN THE MOUNTAINS).
A SLIGHT WARMUP IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, WITH
TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO AVERAGE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGE 3...A WINTRY PRECIPITATION THREAT MAY RE-EMERGE BY
LATE THIS WEEK.
A COLD FRONT LOOKS TO TRACK ACROSS THE AREA SOMETIME THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS COULD BRING A RAIN OR A WINTRY MIX TO
PARTS OF THE AREA, THOUGH PRECIP CHANCES OVERALL ARE LOW AT 15
TO 20 PERCENT DUE TO LARGE DISCREPANCIES IN THE TIMING OF THE
FRONT. COLD AIR SURGES IN BEHIND THE FRONT TO CLOSE THE WEEK.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE REGION. ANOTHER POTENTIALLY POTENT
WAVE IS HINTED AT BY A LOT OF GUIDANCE (WITH ENSEMBLE SUPPORT)
LATER NEXT WEEKEND THAT BEARS MONITORING.
AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THE FIRST ROUND OF PRECIPITATION HAS EXITED, BUT SOME SUB-VFR
CEILINGS AND BR LINGER AT BWI, DCA, AND MTN. THESE RESTRICTIONS
SHOULD CLEAR OUT BY THIS AFTERNOON AS NORTHWEST WINDS BEGIN TO
PICK UP. A FEW GUSTS OF 15 TO PERHAPS 20 KTS ARE POSSIBLE
HEADING INTO THE AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE
COAST MAY THROW SOME SNOW BACK TOWARD THE I-95 TAF SITES (KDCA
AND ESPECIALLY KBWI/KMTN) FROM ROUGHLY 19Z-01Z. LATEST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS ANY PRECIP MAY ONLY FALL FOR 3-4 HOURS AT MOST. WINDS
BECOME LIGHTER TONIGHT AFTER DARK AS PRECIP EXITS, THEN TURN S
BY MON AM.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MON-TUE WITH BLUSTERY W/NW WINDS.
GUSTS OF 25-30 KTS ARE MOST LIKELY ONCE WINDS SHIFT BACK TO THE
W/NW MON AFTERNOON. GUSTS WILL SLACKEN A BIT MON NIGHT, BUT
15-25 KT GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY TUE.
VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL WED-THU WITH S WINDS WED AND W WINDS
THU GUSTING 15-25 KTS DURING THE DAY. THERE ARE SOME PIECES OF
GUIDANCE THAT DRAW PRECIP INTO THE REGION THU, HOWEVER.
MARINE
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON, AND LIKELY REMAIN
ELEVATED INTO THE NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES OFFSHORE WITH
ADDITIONAL RAIN/SNOW POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE WATERS FOR
THIS TIME PERIOD. WINDS SHIFT BRIEFLY TO SOUTHERLY MONDAY
MORNING AHEAD OF A REINFORCING ARCTIC FRONT BEFORE BECOMING WEST
TO NORTHWEST MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY. GUSTS OF 20 TO
30 KNOTS ARE MOST LIKELY FROM ROUGHLY MIDDAY MONDAY THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING, WITH A GENERAL DECREASE IN WINDS THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT.
WINDS SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTH WEDNESDAY, THEN WEST AND NORTHWEST
THURSDAY WITH SCAS POSSIBLE BOTH AHEAD OF AND BEHIND A FRONT
THAT COULD BRING SOME PRECIP NEAR THE WATERS THURSDAY.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ008-
507-508.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR MDZ008.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ530.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ530>534-537-
539>541-543.
DISCUSSION...ADS/DHOF/CJL
AVIATION...ADS/DHOF/CJL
MARINE...ADS/DHOF/CJL
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