785  
FXUS61 KLWX 240032  
AFDLWX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC  
832 PM EDT SAT AUG 23 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
SHOWER CHANCES INCREASE THROUGH TONIGHT WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE  
MOUNTAINS AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM  
CHANCES CONTINUE AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA SUNDAY INTO  
MONDAY. A STRONG DOME OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS THEREAFTER  
WITH NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY MORNING/
 
 
KLWX RADAR LOOP AS OF 8:15PM SHOWS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS  
APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA FROM EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA WITH  
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVER WESTERN MARYLAND. THESE SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE WESTERN PORTIONS  
OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT, AND ARE  
FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CRITERIA. HOWEVER,  
GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN  
THUNDERSTORMS. EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE, DRY CONDITIONS ARE  
EXPECTED. THE 00Z KIAD SOUNDING SHOWED PLENTY OF DRY AIR ALOFT  
WITH MID LEVEL RH VALUES OF AROUND 45%. NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO  
THE FORECAST WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION BELOW.  
 
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEATHER OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC  
AS IT DRIFTS OFFSHORE THROUGH TONIGHT. SUBTLE CONVERGENCE NEAR  
AND IMMEDIATELY IN THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS MAY RESULT IN A  
FEW SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM INTO THIS EVENING, BUT DRY WEATHER  
IS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE DUE TO SUBSIDENCE AND NIL FORCING.  
 
HUMIDITY WILL TREND UP THROUGH TONIGHT ON SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST  
WINDS. THIS WILL HOLD LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S FOR MOST.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /7 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
 
 
AN UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO ON SUNDAY WILL DIG ACROSS THE  
GREAT LAKES AND NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC EARLY NEXT WEEK PUSHING A  
STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY. SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE  
COLD FRONT MOVES EASTWARD. SPC MAINTAINS GENERAL THUNDER FOR  
SUNDAY WITH NO CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK. CANNOT RULE OUT A SVR STORM  
OR TWO, BUT THERE IS A DISCONNECT BETWEEN MOISTURE, INSTABILITY,  
AND FORCING. SCATTERED STORMS SHOULD REMAIN PROGRESSIVE LIMITING  
ANY FLOOD THREAT, ALTHOUGH A FEW MERGERS ARE POSSIBLE WITH  
LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS FROM THE NORTH-CENTRAL SHENANDOAH VALLEY  
INTO THE CENTRAL VIRGINIA PIEDMONT.  
 
THE COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE AREA EARLY MONDAY AFTER 06Z WITH  
SHOWERS ENDING SHORTLY THEREAFTER. EXPECT A SLIGHT BUMP IN  
WINDS MONDAY AS THE FRONT EXITS EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS  
FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 MPH ARE POSSIBLE  
OUT OF THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST. TEMPS MONDAY WILL BE BELOW  
AVERAGE WITH 70S TO NEAR 80 FOR MOST. AREAS AOA 3.5KFT IN THE  
ALLEGHENIES LIKELY DON'T MAKE IT OUT OF THE 50S MONDAY - A SIGN  
OF WHAT IS TO COME LATER THIS WEEK WITH A TRUE AUTUMNAL AIRMASS  
SETTING IN. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S FOR MOST (60S ALONG  
WATER AND CITY CENTERS). HIGH ELEVATION VALLEYS AND BOGS LIKELY  
SEE THE FIRST FROST OF THE FALL.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
 
 
A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL DOMINATE THE EAST ALL OF NEXT  
WEEK WITH REINFORCING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING ACROSS. AT THE  
SURFACE, CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE MID-MISSOURI  
RIVER VALLEY TUE TO THE MID-ATLANTIC BY THU MORNING KEEPING A  
COOL AND DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE. WEAK MOISTURE RETURN IS POSSIBLE  
BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK, BUT OVERALL ANY PRECIP CHANCES LOOK  
PRETTY LOW. IT WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL, ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
 
 
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE  
PUSHES EAST OF THE REGION. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH  
TO SOUTHEAST.  
 
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY,  
ALTHOUGH TEMPORARY DROPS TO SUB-VFR MAY BE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY  
AFTERNOON AS SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MOVE THROUGH. WINDS WILL BE  
OUT OF THE SOUTH ON SUNDAY, AND THEN OUT OF THE WEST TO  
NORTHWEST ON MONDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THEREAFTER FOR  
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY) AS CANADIAN HIGH  
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION. NO SIG WEATHER EXPECTED  
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN WHILE SHIFTING OFFSHORE  
THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW CHANNELING TO OCCUR. SOUTHERLY  
WINDS WILL GUST TO AROUND 15 TO 20 KTS THROUGH THIS EVENING. A  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.  
 
SUB-SCA LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY OUTSIDE OF MARGINAL  
SOUTHERLY CHANNELING IN THE EARLY EVENING, AND MAY APPROACH SCA  
LEVELS MAINLY MONDAY NIGHT AS WINDS TURN NORTHWEST BEHIND A COLD  
FRONT. SMWS MAY POTENTIALLY BE NEEDED AS THUNDERSTORMS PASS  
OVER THE WATERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING.  
 
NO MARINE HAZARDS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS NORTHWEST  
10 TO 15 KNOTS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  
 

 
   
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
 
 
THE WORST OF THE COASTAL FLOODING HAS ALREADY OCCURRED, BUT  
WATER LEVELS WILL BE SLOW TO RECEDE DUE TO SOUTHERLY CHANNELING  
AND UNTIL A COLD FRONT CLEARS THE AREA MONDAY AND WINDS SHIFT TO  
THE NW. EXPECT ONE MORE CYCLE OF MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING AT  
ANNAPOLIS EARLY SUNDAY DUE TO HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES.  
OTHERWISE, WIDESPREAD MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL CONTINUE  
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY.  
 

 
   
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
DC...NONE.  
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR MDZ011-018-  
508.  
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR MDZ014.  
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR MDZ016.  
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR MDZ017.  
VA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR VAZ054-057.  
WV...NONE.  
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ531>534-  
536>543.  
 

 
 

 
 
SYNOPSIS...DHOF/CPB  
NEAR TERM...AVS/DHOF/CPB  
SHORT TERM...DHOF/CPB  
LONG TERM...LFR  
AVIATION...LFR/DHOF/CPB  
MARINE...LFR/DHOF/CPB/EST  
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...LWX  
 
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