537
FXUS61 KLWX 100756
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
356 AM EDT THU SEP 10 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ANNAPOLIS UNTIL 8AM
THIS MORNING. BAND OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
FROM LATE LAST EVENING HAS FALLEN APART AS IT MOVED INTO WESTERN
MARYLAND OVERNIGHT.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) A COLD FRONT BRINGS SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TODAY
INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
- 2) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY, FOLLOWED BY
DRIER CONDITIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...A COLD FRONT BRINGS SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
A MID TO UPPER JET STREAK WILL BRING FORCING ALONG A SURFACE
COLD FRONT AS IT DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 36 TO 48
HOURS. THIS COMBINATION OF A JET AND SURFACE FRONT WILL INITIATE
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND ON THE
NORTH SIDE OF THE FRONT PRIMARILY MID AFTERNOON INTO THE
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THE LINE OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT
MOVED FROM SOUTHWEST PA INTO WESTERN MD LATE LAST EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HAS SINCE WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY AND IS NOW A BROKEN
LINE OF SHOWERS IN WESTERN MD AND NORTHEASTERN WV.
A STRONG MID TO UPPER JET WILL SWING BY TO THE NORTH TODAY INTO
TONIGHT AND PUT US IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE. THIS WOULD INDICATE
GOOD UPWARD MOTION WITH DEVELOPING CONVECTION LATER TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. THE GREATEST CAPE WILL LIKELY BE AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG
ACROSS CENTRAL VA WHERE THE MOST HEATING AND HIGHEST LOW- LEVEL
MOISTURE CONTENT IS ANTICIPATED.
SOME STORMS MAY TEND TO CLUSTER HEADING INTO THIS EVENING GIVEN
FORCING ALONG THE FRONT AND INCREASED FLOW ALOFT, BUT THE
MODEST CAPE/DCAPE SHOULD KEEP ANY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT RATHER
LIMITED FOR WIND AND HAIL. STILL, CAN'T RULE OUT A BRIEFLY
STRONGER, MORE ORGANIZED ROTATING STORM IN THE VICINITY OF THE
FRONT/WAVE IN THE EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL VA TO SOUTHERN MD.
THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY BUT STEADILY DROP SOUTHWARD HEADING INTO
FRIDAY. SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY LINGER OR REDEVELOP IN THE
VICINITY OF THE FRONT NEAR THE I-64 CORRIDOR, BUT MOST OF THE
TIME/AREA SHOULD BE DRY FRIDAY UNLESS THE FRONT SLOWS DOWN MUCH
MORE SIGNIFICANTLY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY,
FOLLOWED BY DRIER CONDITIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
A WEAK COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY,
RESULTING IN A FEW POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING. WHILE CHANCES FOR THESE STORMS TO BE SEVERE REMAIN LOW, A
FEW STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. COME MONDAY,
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING STARTS BUILDING OVER THE EAST COAST ACCOMPANIED
BY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. PRIMARILY DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ON MONDAY, ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED RAIN SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED
OUT ALONG THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AS A COLD FRONT
TRACKS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE BY
MIDWEEK AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT TRACKS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 80S FOR MOST (70S MOUNTAINS) EACH
DAY WITH HIGH HUMIDITY VALUES YIELDING HEAT INDICES IN THE LOW 90S
FOR THOSE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S AND HEAT INDICES IN THE UPPER
90S.
AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS MORNING DESPITE ISOLATED SHOWERS
MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR REGION. A FEW SPRINKLES
OR A SHOWER COULD MOVE THROUGH MRB OR EVEN MTN THIS MORNING, BUT
NOT ALL TERMINALS. AS WE GET INTO THE AFTERNOON, ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP ALONG A COLD FRONT
AS IT PUSHES SOUTHEASTWARD TODAY AND TONIGHT. CONFIDENCE FOR
SHOWERS GROWS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING WITH AN ISOLATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORM IN PLACES. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE DOES NOT
HAVE A TON OF FOG/LOW CLOUDS LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING
AFTER THE PRECIP EXITS, BUT THE MAV/MET HAVE WIDESPREAD DENSE
FOG AND/OR LOW CEILINGS DURING THIS TIME. VFR SHOULD RETURN BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND THEN EAST, WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR A SHOWER OR STORM NEAR KCHO AS THE FRONT
REMAINS STALLED NEARBY TO THE SOUTH.
WEST WINDS ON SUNDAY SHIFT TO NORTHERLY ON MONDAY, BLOWING LESS THAN
10 KNOTS EACH DAY. SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ARE POSSIBLE
ON SUNDAY, RESULTING IN BRIEF PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY.
MARINE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ANTICIPATED LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT. A FEW SPECIAL MARINE
WARNINGS ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF WASHINGTON DC TO
ANNAPOLIS MD. WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST TODAY AS A
COLD FRONT CROSSES, THEN SHIFT TO NORTH AND EAST THROUGH FRIDAY
AS THE FRONT STALLS TO THE SOUTH. WINDS SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY ON
SATURDAY WITH SOUTHERLY CHANNELING YIELDING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON.
WEST WINDS ON SUNDAY SHIFT TO NORTHERLY ON MONDAY, REMAINING BELOW
SCA CRITERIA EACH DAY. SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE WATERS ON SUNDAY, ALTHOUGH SMWS ARE NOT
LIKELY.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
TIDE LEVELS REMAIN ELEVATED (0.5 TO 1 FT ABOVE NORMAL) EARLY
THIS MORNING AT ANNAPOLIS. MORE NOTABLE WATER LEVEL DECREASES
WILL OCCUR TODAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT, BEFORE LEVELS INCREASE
AGAIN BY THE WEEKEND.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ008.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ014.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
ANZ530>533-538>542.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ534-
537-543.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
ANZ535-536.
DISCUSSION...ADS/AVS/KLW/DHOF
AVIATION...ADS/AVS/KLW/DHOF
MARINE...ADS/AVS/KLW/DHOF
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