733
FXUS61 KLWX 031858
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
258 PM EDT WED JUN 3 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
- 2)INCREASING HEAT CONTINUES THROUGH SUNDAY, BUT WITH A RETURN
OF STORM CHANCES BEFORE A COOLING TREND ENSUES NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING OFFSHORE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THIS YIELDS DRY
CONDITIONS AND GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES EACH DAY. WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD, HIGHS REMAIN NEAR NORMAL TODAY AND
TOMORROW WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S (70S MOUNTAINS) FOR MOST. AS HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVERHEAD,
RETURN FLOW USHERS IN WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS RISING
INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. ELSEWHERE, HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE 80S. GENERALLY,
EXPECT WARMING TEMPERATURES, REDUCED CLOUD COVER, AND DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
KEY MESSAGE 2...INCREASING HEAT CONTINUES THROUGH SUNDAY, BUT
WITH A RETURN OF STORM CHANCES BEFORE A COOLING TREND ENSUES
NEXT WEEK.
WHILE THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF A BROAD UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN,
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN PLENTY WARM HEADING INTO SUNDAY. JUST HOW
MUCH THE MERCURY RISES WILL DEPEND ON CLOUD COVER AND THE SPATIAL
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS. AS A SHORTWAVE TRACKS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM
SOUTHERN ONTARIO, SOME WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS MAY CROSS THE LOCAL
AREA LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING. SUBSEQUENT CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT SHOULD TIE CLOSELY TO HOW QUICKLY THE AIR MASS IS ABLE
TO RESPOND FROM THE EARLIER ACTIVITY. AS IT STANDS, THE CURRENT
FORECAST PACKAGE SUGGESTS AMPLE WARMING IS LIKELY WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID/UPPER 80S (70S TO LOW 80S FOR MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS).
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER CONTINUES TO REFERENCE THE NORTHEASTERN
U.S. IN ITS SUNDAY SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK. HOWEVER, THERE IS QUITE A
BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WHICH INCLUDES THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED MORNING
SHOWERS, SUB-OPTIMAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE, AND SURFACE WESTERLIES. ALL
COULD ACT TO OFFSET ANY MORE DISCERNIBLE SEVERE THREAT. DRY MID-
LEVEL NORTHWESTERLIES ARE NOTED WITH WINDS AROUND 25 TO 35 KNOTS.
SUCH AN ENVIRONMENT CAN OFTEN STEEPEN MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO YIELD
SOME SMALL HAIL THREAT. HOWEVER, THIS WILL DEPEND ON WHETHER THE
BOUNDARY LAYER IS MORE CONVECTIVE IN NATURE.
AS THE UPPER TROUGH SWINGS SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA, THERE ARE HINTS
AMONG THE ENSEMBLES THAT THE SYSTEM CLOSES OFF EAST OF THE
CAROLINAS. THIS BECOMES A PROMINENT FEATURE FOR THE EARLY/MID
PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK. ALTHOUGH SOME 12Z/06Z GEFS MEMBERS KEEP THE
CIRCULATION CLOSER TO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES, A PREPONDERANCE OF
THE MODELS KEEP ANY SHOWER THREATS TO THE SOUTH. AT THE SAME TIME, A
CLOSED UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT LAKES WHICH LEAVES THE
LOCAL AREA IN BETWEEN THE TWO PRIMARY SYNOPTIC FEATURES. IN THE NET,
EXPECT A COOL START TO NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOW
80S. ADDITIONALLY, THE FORECAST HAS TRENDED MUCH DRIER. ENSEMBLE BOX-
AND-WHISKER PLOTS SHOW SOME REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES TOWARD MIDDLE
PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD.
THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE FRIDAY, YIELDING
SOUTHWEST WINDS, INCREASED CLOUD COVER, AND CONTINUED VFR
CONDITIONS. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT, BLOWING 5 TO 10 KNOTS ACROSS
THE TERMINALS.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ON SATURDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE KEEPS
CONDITIONS MOSTLY DRY. HOWEVER, AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
INCREASE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LATE SATURDAY INTO MUCH OF
SUNDAY. SOME RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES DURING THIS MORE
ACTIVE PHASE IN THE PATTERN. THE COLD FRONT CLEARS THE REGION LATE
SUNDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING BY MONDAY. OVERALL WINDS WILL
BE OUT OF THE WEST-SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY INTO THE FIRST HALF OF
SUNDAY WITH AFTERNOON GUSTS TO AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS. WINDS SHIFT TO
NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT BEFORE SHIFTING TO NORTHEASTERLY BY
MONDAY.
MARINE
NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. WINDS
SHIFT TO SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY AND
MAY NEAR SCA CRITERIA FRIDAY AFTERNOON, BUT ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW. NO OTHER MARINE HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
A BRIEF PERIOD OF SOUTHERLY CHANNELING IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY EVENING
AND INTO THE NIGHT. PORTIONS OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY COULD APPROACH 20
KNOTS DURING THIS SURGE. OTHERWISE, WINDS SHOULD STAY BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH ON SUNDAY. A SPECIAL
MARINE WARNING OR TWO ARE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY AS FRONTAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS PASS THROUGH. WINDS SHIFT OVER TO NORTHEASTERLY BY
MONDAY WHICH MAY BRING A RETURN OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AVS/BRO
AVIATION...AVS/BRO
MARINE...AVS/BRO
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