187  
FXUS61 KLWX 291807  
AFDLWX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC  
207 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY WILL  
CROSS OVERHEAD THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH EARLY  
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA  
SATURDAY, WITH ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SET TO APPROACH FROM  
THE GREAT LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
 
 
LIGHT SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES CONTINUED TO PIVOT NORTHWESTWARD  
AS OF EARLY AFTERNOON IN ONSHORE FLOW. THIS PATTERN WILL  
PERSIST AHEAD OF BENEFICIAL RAIN ON THE WAY FOR TONIGHT.  
 
A PAIR OF CLOSED LOWS OVER LAKE ERIE AND ARKANSAS ARE IN THE  
PROCESS OF MERGING/PHASING. THIS WILL DRIVE A DYNAMIC WEATHER  
SYSTEM ACROSS OUR AREA. THE PRIMARY LOW IS NEAR THE TENNESSEE  
RIVER VALLEY. ANOTHER COASTAL LOW SEEMS TO BE DEVELOPING EAST  
OF SOUTH CAROLINA WHICH MAY PLAY A ROLE IN CONVECTION/WARM  
SECTOR DYNAMICS LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.  
 
THE MAIN IMPACTFUL PERIOD WILL BE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS  
STRONG ASCENT AND MOISTURE FLUX OVERSPREAD THE AREA AHEAD OF THE  
LOW APPROACHING FROM THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY. MODERATE TO  
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED, SUPPORTED BY PRECIPITABLE  
WATER VALUES NEAR 1.5 INCHES.  
 
A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY LATE  
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME, THE INSTABILITY  
APPEARS TO BE MOSTLY ELEVATED, THUS LIMITING ANY SEVERE WEATHER  
THREAT OVERNIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH THE DYNAMIC WIND FIELDS. MOST  
HI-RES GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A BRIEF/NARROW CORRIDOR OF  
NEAR SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONGLY  
FORCED FRONTAL RAIN BAND THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.  
THIS WOULD BE THE RESULT OF MORE DYNAMICS FROM THE COASTAL LOW,  
AND HAS RESULTED IN SPC EXPANDING A MARGINAL SEVERE WEATHER  
OUTLOOK FOR THURSDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE MID-ATLANTIC. GIVEN THE  
STRENGTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL WINDS, A BRIEF TORNADO CAN'T BE RULED  
OUT IN ADDITION TO A FEW DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WIND GUSTS.  
 
GENERALLY 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN IS FORECAST, THOUGH SOME LOCATIONS  
COULD GET A BIT LESS. CAMS ALSO INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY  
3 INCHES OF RAIN DUE TO TERRAIN ENHANCEMENTS AND/OR HEAVIER  
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS. THIS RAIN SHOULD BE MOSTLY BENEFICIAL GIVEN  
RECENT DRY CONDITIONS, THOUGH SOME LOCALIZED ISSUES COULD ARISE  
WHERE THERE ARE HEAVIER RAIN RATES. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TRENDS  
IN EASTERLY UPSLOPE AREAS, AS WELL. LATEST TRENDS ARE FOR THE  
HEAVIEST RAIN TO BE BETWEEN THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS AND I-95.  
 
WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE AS THE LOW PASSES, BUT LIKELY WON'T  
REACH HAZARDOUS LEVELS. THE HIGHER RIDGETOPS ABOVE 2000 FT COULD  
SEE SOME GUSTS OVER 40 MPH, AND PERHAPS ON THE WESTERN SLOPES  
(DOWNSLOPE SIDE) OF THE ALLEGHENIES. TIDAL FLOODING WILL ALSO BE  
AN ISSUE (SEE THE TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING SECTION BELOW).  
 
TEMPERATURES, WHICH COULD BE NON-DIURNAL IN NATURE, WILL BE  
DEPENDENT ON THE LOW TRACK. LOCATIONS WHICH BREAK INTO THE WARM  
SECTOR WILL REACH THE 60S THURSDAY. WHILE TIMING IS STILL A BIT  
UNCERTAIN, WE SHOULD SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS BEGINNING  
THURSDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
 
 
REMAINING PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME FOCUSED ON THE ALLEGHENIES  
AS WINDS TURN WESTERLY AND LOCATIONS TO THE EAST ARE DRY SLOTTED.  
THE HIGHEST PEAKS COULD SEE A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW LATE AT NIGHT.  
A SECONDARY FRONT WILL CROSS OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. WESTERLY  
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FIRST IN THE MOUNTAINS, AND  
ELSEWHERE ESPECIALLY SO AFTER SUNRISE FRIDAY. WIND ADVISORY  
CONDITIONS (AT LEAST 46 MPH GUSTS) ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER  
TERRAIN AND POSSIBLY NORTH OF US-50 IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.  
ELSEWHERE, 25-40 MPH GUSTS SEEM LIKELY. SOME UPSLOPE  
PRECIPITATION COULD LINGER THROUGH THE DAY AND POSSIBLY INTO  
FRIDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER, THE MOISTURE LAYER WILL BECOME  
INCREASINGLY SHALLOW AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE MARGINAL, THUS NOT  
EXPECTING MUCH WINTRY IMPACT. IN THE LOWLANDS, WINDS DROP OFF  
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 30S TO MID 40S.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PIVOTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS  
ON SATURDAY BEFORE DEEPENING AND TRACKING EASTWARD TOWARDS THE  
EAST COAST ON SUNDAY. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS  
OVERHEAD FROM THE SOUTH WITH PRIMARILY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED  
EACH DAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE MONDAY, WHERE THE UPPER-LEVEL  
TROUGH PUSHES A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. MOISTURE  
REMAINS LIMITED WITH THE FRONT, LEADING TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF  
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE  
BUILDS IN ON TUESDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS RETURNING.  
 
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S EACH DAY WITH THOSE  
ALONG THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS STAYING IN THE 40S. OVERNIGHT LOW  
TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE 30S AND 40S EACH NIGHT.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
VFR CEILINGS ENCOMPASS MOST OF THE AREA WITH LIGHTER NORTHEAST  
WINDS AS OF EARLY AFTERNOON, THOUGH MVFR HAD DEVELOPED AT CHO  
AND WAS SPREADING NORTH NEAR IAD/DCA. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OR  
SPRINKLES CONTINUE TO MOVE ABOUT THE AREA AT TIMES, BUT IMPACTS  
SHOULD BE MINIMAL THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. MVFR CEILINGS  
WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD, WITH IFR CEILINGS LIKELY  
DEVELOPING AT CHO BY NIGHTFALL. IFR LIKELY WON'T REACH THE  
REMAINDER OF THE TERMINALS MID EVENING. LIGHT SHOWERS WILL  
BECOME MORE COMMON DURING THIS TIME.  
 
THE MAIN IMPACTFUL PERIOD WILL COME TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY  
MORNING WITH CONTINUED IFR CEILINGS (PERHAPS LIFR AT CHO AND  
MRB) AND MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN. CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW  
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS; TIMING IS A BIT UNCERTAIN, BUT IT APPEARS  
THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE DURING THE 10Z-16Z TIMEFRAME IN THE  
METRO AREAS. HAVE MAINTAINED THIS AS A PROB30 GROUP SINCE  
LIGHTNING STRIKES SHOULD BE SPARSE. WON'T INCLUDE A MENTION AT  
CHO AND MRB SINCE INSTABILITY DECREASES TO THE WEST. THERE COULD  
ALSO BE SOME LLWS TONIGHT AS A LOW-LEVEL JET MOVES OVERHEAD,  
BUT WITH LITTLE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AND SURFACE WINDS INCREASING  
(EASTERLY GUSTS OF AT LEAST 20-25 KT), IT MAY NOT MEET THE 2000  
FT CRITERIA (WHERE WINDS WILL BE ABOUT 45 KT). CONDITIONS SHOULD  
GRADUALLY IMPROVE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WEST WIND  
GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 KNOTS WILL DEVELOP AROUND SUNRISE FRIDAY AND  
LAST THROUGH THE DAY.  
 
WEST WINDS GUSTING 15 TO 20 KNOTS SATURDAY MORNING WEAKEN THROUGHOUT  
THE DAY BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. WINDS REMAIN  
OUT OF THE WEST ON SUNDAY, BLOWING 5 TO 10 KNOTS AS HIGH PRESSURE  
BUILDS OVERHEAD. NO PRECIPITATION AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED  
ACROSS ALL TERMINALS.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
A BIT OF A LULL IN NORTHEAST FLOW IS BEING OBSERVED ACROSS PARTS  
OF THE AREA AS OF EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS INCREASE AGAIN TONIGHT  
INTO THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE TENNESSEE RIVER  
VALLEY ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC. THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF  
NEAR-GALE CONDITIONS TONIGHT, BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH  
FOR A WATCH/WARNING, ESPECIALLY SINCE DURATION MAY BE BRIEF.  
THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS, OR AT LEAST  
HEAVIER RAINS LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.  
 
SOME GUIDANCE INDICATES A BRIEF BREAK IN WINDS AS THE LOW  
PASSES NEARBY LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. EVEN SO, SCA  
CONDITIONS WILL RESUME/CONTINUE BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AS WINDS  
TURN SOUTHWEST THEN WESTERLY. A SECONDARY FRONT PASSES EARLY  
FRIDAY WITH A STRONG PRESSURE SURGE BEHIND IT. GALE WATCHES HAVE  
BEEN ISSUED FOR FRIDAY GIVEN AN UPTICK IN WINDS IN RECENT  
GUIDANCE. WEST WINDS GUSTING 15 TO 20 KNOTS SATURDAY MORNING MAY  
LEAD TO POSSIBLE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY  
AFTERNOON. WINDS DIMINISH BELOW SCA CRITERIA SATURDAY AFTERNOON  
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.  
 

 
   
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
 
 
TIDAL ANOMALIES WERE STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING AS OF EARLY  
AFTERNOON. THE HIGHER OF THE TWO DAILY TIDES IS THURSDAY  
MORNING/MIDDAY. BY THIS TIME, INCREASING ONSHORE EAST TO  
SOUTHEAST AND EVENTUALLY SOUTH FLOW IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO A  
SURGE OF WATER, WITH TIDES EXPECTED TO RUN 2 TO 3 FEET ABOVE  
NORMAL THURSDAY MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT  
IN MINOR FLOODING ACROSS MOST SHORELINE, WITH MODERATE FLOODING  
IN THE MORE VULNERABLE SPOTS. IN PARTICULAR, GIVEN THE WIND  
DIRECTION, ANNAPOLIS COULD PUSH WELL INTO MODERATE. THE EXACT  
WIND DIRECTION, STRENGTH, AND DURATION WILL HAVE A SUBSTANTIAL  
IMPACT ON THE EXACT TIDE LEVELS, SO BE SURE TO CHECK BACK FOR  
UPDATES THROUGH THURSDAY. THEREAFTER, OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CAUSE  
ANAMOLIES TO STEADILY DECREASE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.  
 

 
   
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
DC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EDT  
THURSDAY FOR DCZ001.  
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 PM EDT  
THURSDAY FOR MDZ011.  
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT  
FRIDAY FOR MDZ014.  
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR MDZ016.  
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR MDZ017.  
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 2 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR  
MDZ017.  
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR MDZ018.  
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR  
MDZ018.  
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 3 AM THURSDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT  
THURSDAY NIGHT FOR MDZ508.  
VA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR VAZ057.  
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR VAZ054.  
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THURSDAY TO 6 AM EDT FRIDAY  
FOR VAZ054.  
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR  
VAZ054.  
WV...NONE.  
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ530>534-537-  
539>543.  
GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR  
ANZ530>543.  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ535-536-  
538.  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT TO 6 AM EDT  
FRIDAY FOR ANZ535-536-538.  
 

 
 

 
 
SYNOPSIS...ADS/DHOF  
NEAR TERM...ADS/DHOF  
SHORT TERM...ADS/DHOF  
LONG TERM...AVS  
AVIATION...ADS/AVS/DHOF  
MARINE...ADS/AVS/DHOF  
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...DHOF  
 
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