753
FXUS61 KLWX 230030
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
830 PM EDT WED JUL 22 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
A COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY PRESSING SOUTHEASTWARD. THE FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM CENTRAL
VIRGINIA TO SOUTHERN MARYLAND TONIGHT.
- 2) BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
- 3) GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE & PRECIPITATION CHANCES EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
FROM CENTRAL VIRGINIA TO SOUTHERN MARYLAND TONIGHT.
00Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A COLD FRONT FROM NEAR WILMINGTON DE
TO ANNAPOLIS MD TO CULPEPER VA TO STAUNTON VA. MODERATE AMOUNTS
OF INSTABILITY AND FLOW REMAIN ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS FRONT,
WHICH IS INTERSECTING A NORTHWARD-MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM
EARLIER CONVECTION THAT IMPACTED THE FREDERICKSBURG TO SOUTHERN
MD AREA. THIS CORRIDOR MAY CONTINUE TO SEE ACTIVITY TONIGHT, BUT
WITH DECREASING SEVERITY ESPECIALLY BEYOND LATE EVENING AS THE
FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH AND DIURNAL INSTABILITY WANES.
KEY MESSAGE 2...BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
A SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO OUR NORTH FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, BEFORE SHIFTING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COASTLINE ON SATURDAY. NORTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
HIGH WILL ADVECT A MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS INTO THE REGION
FOR THURSDAY. WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS ARE
FORECAST FOR LATE JULY, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE UPPER
70S/LOW 80S. DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S WILL ALSO MAKE IT FEEL MUCH
LESS HUMID THAN IS TYPICAL FOR JULY. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL
ACCOMPANY THE WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS.
TEMPERATURES WILL STAY WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
WITHIN EASTERLY FLOW. SOME MOISTURE COULD BE DRAWN NORTHWARD
FROM THE STALLED FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES
DURING THIS TIME. THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS SOME LOW RAIN CHANCES
BOTH DAYS, MAINLY IN SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AND ALONG THE
ALLEGHENY MOUNTAINS.
KEY MESSAGE 3... GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE & PRECIPITATION
CHANCES EARLY NEXT WEEK.
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT NORTHEAST OVER THE
WEEKEND, WITH LOW PRESSURE BUILDING OVER NORTHEASTERN CANADA
AND A STEMMING TROUGH POTENTIALLY FORMING OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC LATE
SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY. DEWPOINTS START TO INCREASE DURING THIS
TIME, SO SHOWER & THUNDERSTORM CHANCES COULD INCREASE DURING THE
AFTERNOON & EVENING HOURS SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THIS PERTURBATION
MOVES THROUGH. MACHINE-LEARNING ALGORITHMS SHOW SOME LOWER-END
PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE OCCURRENCE DURING THIS TIME, ALTHOUGH
ENSEMBLES STILL SHOW UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC
SETUP. AS THIS TROUGH APPROACHES, TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY BEGIN TO
INCREASE BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S.
DEWPOINTS COULD REMAIN ELEVATED WITHIN THE REGION AS THIS SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH, WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO THE NORTH SLOWLY
TRACKING TO THE SOUTH BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST MIDWEEK. THIS
COULD OVERALL RE-INTRODUCE CHANCES FOR RAIN WITHIN THE REGION
AFTER A BRIEF DRY SPELL.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ANY THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY WIND DOWN
THIS EVENING, LIMITED TO NEAR KCHO AND SOUTH OF KDCA.
THEREAFTER, PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE
TERMINALS THROUGH SATURDAY. LOWER CEILINGS COULD BRIEFLY BE
POSSIBLE IN EASTERLY FLOW ON FRIDAY OR SATURDAY. WINDS WILL
PREDOMINANTLY BE OUT OF THE WEST TO NORTHWEST TODAY, NORTH LATER
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW, AND THEN EAST TO SOUTHEAST ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.
PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED ACROSS TERMINALS SUNDAY
AND MONDAY, ALTHOUGH A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS COULD TEMPORARILY CAUSE REDUCED
CONDITIONS DURING THIS PERIOD. LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS BRIEFLY
SHIFT SOUTHWESTERLY BY MONDAY EVENING.
MARINE
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF A LINE FROM KENT
ISLAND TO ANNAPOLIS TO OCCOQUAN TONIGHT. WINDS SHIFT TO OUT OF
THE NORTH TONIGHT, WITH SCAS IN EFFECT WITHIN CHANNELED
NORTHERLY FLOW FOR THE MAIN STEM OF THE BAY AND THE LOWER TIDAL
POTOMAC. NORTHERLY WINDS GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY
TOMORROW, BEFORE TURNING OUT OF THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST FOR FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY.
WINDS REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THROUGH SUNDAY AND MONDAY, WITH
SOUTHEAST WINDS SHIFTING SOUTHWESTERLY BY MONDAY EVENING. SCATTERED
SHOWERS & THUNDERSTORMS COULD BRING SOME GUSTIER WINDS OVER THE
WATERS IN THE AFTERNOON & EVENING HOURS DURING THIS PERIOD.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
WATER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE WITHIN NORTH TO
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BEHIND A COLD FRONT. ANOMALIES GRADUALLY
REBOUND WITHIN EASTERLY FLOW THIS WEEKEND, WITH MORE SENSITIVE
LOCATIONS POTENTIALLY REACHING ACTION STAGE.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ530>532-
539-540.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ533-534-
537-541-543.
DISCUSSION...DHOF/KJP/SRT
AVIATION...DHOF/KJP/SRT
MARINE...DHOF/KJP/SRT
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...LWX
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