002
FXUS61 KLWX 111902
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
202 PM EST WED FEB 11 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SLICK TRAVEL IS LIKELY OVER THE WESTERN ALLEGHENIES THROUGH
THURSDAY DUE TO ACCUMULATING UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS. BLUSTERY
CONDITIONS REMAIN A CONCERN THROUGH THIS EVENING, ESPECIALLY IN
THE LEE OF THE ALLEGHENIES AND APPALACHIANS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN REGARDS TO THE TRACK OF AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE AND PRECIPITATION TYPE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
- 2) UPSLOPE WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ALONG THE
ALLEGHENIES IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH
RELATIVELY MILDER WEATHER ELSEWHERE THROUGH SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN REGARDS TO THE TRACK OF
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND PRECIPITATION TYPE SUNDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AMONGST THE DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE GIVEN THE PLACEMENT AND STRENGTH (OR EVEN EXISTENCE) OF
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH/EAST, AS WELL AS A SOUTHERN STREAM
LOW PRESSURE LIKELY TO PASS IN THE VICINITY OF OR JUST SOUTH OF
THE REGION. THE PLACEMENT OF THE HIGH WILL DETERMINE HOW MUCH
COLD AIR REMAINS TRAPPED ALONG AND EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. FOR
INSTANCE, THE 12Z UKMET/GDPS HAVE A MODERATELY STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE NY/VT BORDER, WHILE THE GFS/ICON/ECMWF HAVE A
WEAKER HIGH OVER EASTERN QUEBEC. MEANWHILE, EACH OF THESE
SOLUTIONS HAVE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID-SOUTH SUNDAY PUSHING
EAST INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING (BUT WITH RESIDUAL TIMING AND TRACK
DIFFERENCES). THE GDPS STILL REMAINS THE OUTLIER WITH CUTTING
THE LOW TOWARD THE DELMARVA COAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WHILE
THE GFS, UKMET, ICON, AND ECMWF TAKE THE LOW OFF THE VA/NC
COAST. THESE VARYING DIFFERENCES IN LOW PRESSURE TRACK AND
PLACEMENT OF THE HIGH TO THE NORTH WILL ULTIMATELY DICTATE THE
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL OR FLOODING RAINFALL
(OR ONLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION).
MODERATE TO LARGE UNCERTAINTY IS NOTED IN ENSEMBLE SPREAD DUE TO
TWO MAIN FACTORS: (1) THE ULTIMATE TRACK, STRENGTH, AND TIMING
OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM LOW, AND (2) THE TRACK, STRENGTH, AND
SPEED OF A TPV/COLD UPPER LOW NEAR NEW ENGLAND AND WHETHER OR
NOT IT LEAVES A COLD HIGH PRESSURE FAVORABLY PLACED IN ITS WAKE.
BASED UPON THE MODEL DISCUSSION ABOVE, THE TREND AMONGST THE
GUIDANCE APPEARS TO BE WET OVER WINTRY GIVEN MARGINAL TEMPERATURES
AT THE SURFACE/ALOFT AND TRACK OF LOW PRESSURE JUST TO THE SOUTH.
THE GDPS STILL REMAINS THE OUTLIER, ESPECIALLY IN FAVORED CLIMO
ZONES WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE, BUT HAS BEEN NOTABLY THE MOST
CONSISTENT SINGLE MODEL OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS; IT ALSO HAS SOME
ENSEMBLE SUPPORT TO SOME DEGREE FROM THE EPS/AIFS AND EVEN THE
GEFS (IN ADDITION TO ITS OWN ENSEMBLE/GEPS). THE PROBABILITIES
FOR 2" OF SNOW REMAIN BETWEEN 15 TO 25 PERCENT GENERALLY FOR
HIGHER ELEVATIONS NEAR/WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE INTO NORTHERN MD,
WITH SIMILAR PROBS FOR 0.01" OF ICE. THE PROBABILITIES OF 1" OF
LIQUID QPF PER THE LATEST NBM REMAIN BETWEEN 25 TO 30 PERCENT
ALONG THE MD/PA BORDER TO 35 TO 45 PERCENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL VA
PIEDMONT/SOUTHERN MD.
6Z/12Z GUIDANCE IS RELATIVELY SOLID ON TIMING WITH A FOCUS ON
THE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT TIMEFRAME FOR ANY POTENTIAL
IMPACTS. THERE STILL REMAINS A NON-ZERO THREAT FOR WINTER
WEATHER MAINLY WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. AREAS FURTHER EAST WILL
LIKELY SEE RAIN FOR MOST OF THE DAY SUNDAY WITH SOME SNOW MAYBE
MIXING IN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS COLDER AIR RUSHES IN. THE
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN WHAT IMPACT THIS WILL CAUSE GIVEN
SIGNIFICANT THERMODYNAMIC STRUGGLES WITH A RETREATING MARGINALLY
COLD AIRMASS. HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
30S TO LOW 40S ACROSS THE AREA WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS AT OR JUST
ABOVE FREEZING, THOUGH AS EXPECTED SPREAD IN FORECAST TEMPERATURES
IS LARGE DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. HIGHS MONDAY SHOULD WARM BACK
INTO THE UPPER 30S AND MID 40S AS THE SYSTEM PULLS AWAY.
PENDING THE OUTCOME OF THE TRACK OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM,
INTENSITY, AND OVERALL QPF AMOUNTS, FLOODING COULD BE AN ISSUE.
THIS IS LARGELY DUE TO RESIDUAL SNOW/SLEET PACK, ESPECIALLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF I-66/US-50. IN ADDITION TO THIS, ICE JAMS IN
AREA RIVERS, STREAMS, AND CREEKS COMBINED WITH EXCESS RUNOFF
FROM MELTING SNOWFALL AND ANY WEEKEND RAIN COULD EXACERBATE THE
FLOOD CONCERN. KEEP CHECKING THE DISCUSSION IN THE COMING DAYS
TO SEE HOW THINGS EVOLVE WITH THIS FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGE 2...UPSLOPE WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ALONG THE
ALLEGHENIES IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH
RELATIVELY MILDER WEATHER ELSEWHERE THROUGH SATURDAY.
IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT EXITING THE REGION, SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
WHILE THIS YIELDS MILD AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE AREA,
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING UPSLOPE WINTRY PRECIPITATION
TO THE ALLEGHENIES.
PERIODS OF SNOW SHOWERS ARE LIKELY THROUGH THURSDAY NEAR AND
WEST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT THROUGH THURSDAY. THE SOURCE REGION
(LAKE ERIE) IS MOSTLY FROZEN OVER, SO MOISTURE MAY BE A BIT
LIMITED. ALSO, ALTHOUGH AMOUNTS AROUND 3 OR EVEN 4 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE, THIS WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED AND LOCALIZED TO RIDGES
ABOVE 2500 FEET AND SPREAD OVER A 24 TO 36 HOUR PERIOD. HAVE
ISSUED A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT IN LIEU OF A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR THIS REASON. ALSO, SOME DOWNSLOPE ENHANCEMENT TO
THE WIND IS POSSIBLE (ALONG WITH A BIT OF SPILLOVER) INTO THE
FOOTHILLS THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH GUSTS AROUND 45 MPH
POSSIBLE AT TIMES.
TEMPERATURES COOL THROUGH THURSDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
30S AND 40S (20S MTNS). AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD THROUGH
FRIDAY, WINDS DIMINISH LATER IN THE WEEK AND TEMPERATURES BEGIN
TO MODERATE.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE TERMINALS THROUGH SATURDAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY
BEFORE SLIDING NORTH AND EAST SATURDAY. EXPECT GUSTY WINDS THROUGH
THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT DEPARTS EAST AND PRESSURES RISE WITH THE
BUILDING SURFACE HIGH. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL GUST 20 TO 30 KTS
INTO THIS EVENING WITH 15 TO 25 KTS GUSTS LIKELY OVERNIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
WITH GUSTS AROUND 15 TO 20 KTS AT TIMES.
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO RETURN TO THE AREA LATE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE REGION. THIS
STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION
CHANCES TO THE REGION. RAIN AND SOME WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS
POSSIBLE MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE METRO CORRIDOR TERMINALS
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW FOR
SUBSTANTIAL WINTRY PRECIPITATION (I.E. 2+ INCHES OF SNOW) WITH
15 TO 25 PERCENT PROBS FOCUSED TOWARD HGR/MRB COMPARED TO IAD.
ONCE AGAIN, THIS IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE BASED UPON THE AVAILABILITY
OF COLD AIR AND TRACK OF LOW PRESSURE. THE STORM SYSTEM PULLS
OUT OF THE AREA MONDAY WITH CONDITIONS BRIEFLY IMPROVING
TUESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
MARINE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WATERS THROUGH
THURSDAY DUE TO GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF A
DEPARTING COLD FRONT. SCAS MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED FOR PORTIONS
OF THE WATERS INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY. ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
MAY BE NEEDED THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE
PASSES TO THE SOUTH. WINDS WILL TURN WESTERLY SATURDAY BEFORE
SWITCHING TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ530>543.
DISCUSSION...AVS/DHOF/EST
AVIATION...AVS/DHOF/EST
MARINE...AVS/DHOF/EST
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