193  
FXUS61 KLWX 090758  
AFDLWX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC  
358 AM EDT THU OCT 9 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS  
 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO OUR NORTH THROUGH FRIDAY. A COASTAL  
LOW WILL DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST US COAST AND THEN TRACK  
NORTHWARD UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT  
WEEK.  
 
 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/  
 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO OUR NORTH TODAY. NORTHERLY WINDS  
WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT COOL AIR INTO THE REGION, WITH  
TEMPERATURES ONLY EXPECTED TO MAKE IT INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S  
FOR MOST (50S MOUNTAINS). SKIES SHOULD REMAIN SUNNY THROUGH THE  
DURATION OF THE DAY.  
 
A SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST  
AREA TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED TO OUR NORTH.  
THIS SURFACE RIDGE WILL ALLOW WINDS TO GO CALM TO THE WEST OF  
THE BLUE RIDGE AND ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MARYLAND. JUST ENOUGH OF  
A PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY PERSIST TO MAINTAIN VERY LIGHT  
NORTHERLY FLOW FURTHER SOUTHEAST. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR, SO  
THE STAGE WILL BE SET FOR EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING ACROSS  
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE SEASON THUS  
FAR IS EXPECTED. PRIOR FREEZE WATCHES HAVE BEEN UPGRADED TO  
FREEZE WARNINGS FOR THE ALLEGHENIES, POTOMAC HIGHLANDS, AND  
PORTIONS OF THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY. FROST ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN  
ISSUED JUST TO THE EAST OF THE FREEZE WARNING FOR NORTHERN  
PORTIONS OF THE I-81 CORRIDOR(HAGERSTOWN/MARTINSBURG/WINCHESTER  
VICINITY), MUCH OF NORTHERN MARYLAND, AS WELL AS WESTERN  
LOUDOUN, FAUQUIER, CULPEPER, RAPPAHANNOCK, AND MADISON COUNTIES  
IN THE VIRGINIA PIEDMONT. FURTHER EAST, WINDS REMAINING LIGHT  
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT AND URBAN INFLUENCES SHOULD ACT TO  
LIMIT FROST. HOWEVER, SOME PATCHY FROST CAN'T BE COMPLETELY  
RULED OUT FOR OTHER LOCATIONS TO THE NORTHWEST OF I-95. LOW  
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 30S TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF I-95,  
AND THEN IN THE LOW TO MID 40S ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF I-95.  
 
 
   
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/  
 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE TOMORROW,  
MAINTAINING ITS INFLUENCE ACROSS THE REGION. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES  
ARE EXPECTED TO THE WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE, WITH POTENTIALLY A  
FEW FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS DEVELOPING TO THE EAST OF I-95,  
ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL TURN OUT OF THE EAST  
TO SOUTHEAST, BUT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL, WITH  
HIGHS IN THE MID 60S FOR MOST (MID 50S TO NEAR 60 IN THE  
MOUNTAINS).  
 
A COASTAL LOW WILL DEEPEN OFF THE SOUTHEAST US COASTLINE  
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS A DEEP, CLOSED UPPER LOW  
SIMULTANEOUSLY DRIFTS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.  
EVENTUALLY THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL INTERACT AS THE COASTAL LOW  
FEELS THE NORTHWARD PULL OF THE INDUCED SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF  
THE UPPER LOW. THIS INTERACTION WILL EVENTUALLY DRAW THE  
COASTAL LOW NORTHWARD TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC, WITH MOST  
GUIDANCE SHOWING THE COASTAL LOW TRACKING NORTHWARD OFF THE  
CAROLINA COAST SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS INTERACTION  
BETWEEN THE CLOSED UPPER LOW AND THE COASTAL LOW IS A VERY  
DELICATE ONE, AND WILL BE VERY DIFFICULT FOR FORECAST MODELS TO  
GET CORRECT THIS FAR OUT IN TIME. AS A RESULT, THERE IS A MUCH  
HIGHER THAN NORMAL AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE DETAILS  
OF THE FORECAST THIS WEEKEND. IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER,  
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND ALSO WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE  
LOCALLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON, AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO  
SUNDAY (COVERED BELOW IN THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION). JUST HOW  
MUCH RAIN WE SEE AND HOW STRONG THE WINDS GET WILL DEPEND ON THE  
ULTIMATE TRACK OF THE LOW, WHICH REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME  
HORIZON.  
 
 
   
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/  
 
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN BETWEEN THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND  
THE MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS A COASTAL LOW  
TRACKS NORTH ALONG THE EAST COAST. ALOFT, A POTENT UPPER LEVEL  
TROUGH AND CUT-OFF LOW DIG ACROSS THE EAST COAST THROUGH TUESDAY AS  
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN ITS WAKE. ON SUNDAY MORNING, THE  
COASTAL LOW IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED OFF THE COAST OF NORTH  
CAROLINA AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS TO THE NORTHWEST. AS THE  
LOW TRACKS NORTHWARD, THERE REMAINS A GOOD BIT OF UNCERTAINTY  
SURROUNDING THE FORECAST AS MODELS VARY ON THE TIMING AND TRACK  
OF THE LOW.  
 
DESPITE UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST OF THE COASTAL LOW, A TIGHT  
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST AND LOW  
PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHEAST WILL RESULT IN GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS  
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ALONG AND EAST  
OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR, MAINLY OVER THE WATERS, WITH WINDS GUSTING 20  
TO 30 MPH. PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW WILL ALSO RESULT IN BELOW  
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AS HIGHS STAY IN THE 60S (50S MTNS) SUNDAY AND  
MONDAY. TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARM WITH HIGHS REACHING THE 60S TO  
LOW 70S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE  
IN THE 40S AND 50S EACH NIGHT.  
 
PRECIPITATION CHANCES LINGER SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE COASTAL LOW  
TRACKS NORTHWARD. CONDITIONS DRY OUT AND CLOUD COVER DECREASES EARLY  
NEXT WEEK AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/  
 
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH FRIDAY  
NIGHT. SUB-VFR CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES SATURDAY INTO  
SATURDAY NIGHT AS A COASTAL LOW APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH.  
HOWEVER, FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH REGARDING THE TRACK OF THE  
LOW AND RESULTANT IMPACTS LOCALLY.  
 
WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTH TODAY, EITHER LIGHT OUT OF THE  
NORTHEAST OR CALM TONIGHT, TURN OUT OF THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST  
TOMORROW, AND THEN INCREASE OUT OF THE EAST TO NORTHEAST ON  
SATURDAY. DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW, WINDS MAY BECOME  
QUITE GUSTY BY SATURDAY NIGHT.  
 
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS A COASTAL LOW  
BRINGS GUSTY WINDS AND PRECIPITATION TO THE FORECAST AREA.  
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE HIGHER FOR THE TERMINALS ALONG THE  
METROS WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR.  
NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BLOW AROUND 10 KNOTS IN THE  
AFTERNOON, GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS FOR IAD, DCA, BWI, AND MTN. AT MRB  
AND CHO, NNE WINDS BLOW 5 TO 10 KNOTS AND GUST UP TO 15 KNOTS EACH  
AFTERNOON.  
 
 
   
MARINE  
 
LOW-END SCA LEVEL GUSTS WILL LINGER WITHIN NORTHERLY FLOW OVER  
THE WATERS THIS MORNING. THESE WINDS SHOULD BECOME SUB-SCA LEVEL  
IN NATURE BY THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN SUB-SCA LEVEL  
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT, TURNING OUT OF THE NORTHEAST  
TONIGHT, AND THEN EAST TO SOUTHEAST TOMORROW INTO TOMORROW  
NIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE EAST ON SATURDAY AS A  
COASTAL LOW APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. SCA LEVEL WINDS APPEAR  
LIKELY WITHIN EASTERLY FLOW SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT, AND  
DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW, GUSTS MAY REACH GALE FORCE BY  
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. GALE WATCHES MAY NEED TO BE CONSIDERED FOR  
PORTIONS OF THE WATERS TODAY.  
 
A COASTAL LOW TRACKING UP THE EAST COAST WILL BRINGING AT LEAST  
SCA CRITERIA WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. GALE  
FORCE WINDS MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE DUE TO THE TIGHT PRESSURE  
GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST AND LOW PRESSURE  
TO THE SOUTHEAST. WINDS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO GUST 20 TO 30  
KNOTS OVER THE POTOMAC AND 30 TO 40 KNOTS OVER THE BAY.  
 
 
   
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING  
 
ANOMALIES HAVE BEGUN TO LEVEL OUT AS FLOW TURNS NORTHERLY.  
ANOMALIES WILL RAPIDLY REBOUND LATER TODAY INTO FRIDAY AS  
NORTHERLY WINDS BEGIN TO DECREASE AND TURN EASTERLY. MINOR COASTAL  
FLOODING APPEARS LIKELY FRIDAY AT ANNAPOLIS WITHIN ONSHORE  
FLOW, AND MAY OCCUR AT OTHER SITES AS WELL. ADDITIONAL COASTAL  
FLOODING APPEARS LIKELY THIS WEEKEND AS A COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS  
TO OUR SOUTH AND MOVES UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE WORST OF THE  
COASTAL FLOODING WOULD LIKELY OCCUR ON SUNDAY, WHICH REMAINS  
JUST OUTSIDE OF OUR OFFICIAL FORECAST PERIOD. DEPENDING ON THE  
ULTIMATE TRACK OF THE LOW, POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT COASTAL  
FLOODING COULD OCCUR. HOWEVER, FORECAST UNCERTAINTY REMAINS  
HIGH THIS FAR OUT.  
 
 
   
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
DC...NONE.  
MD...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MDZ008.  
FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR MDZ003>006-507.  
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ501-509-510.  
FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR MDZ501-502-509-  
510.  
VA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VAZ028-030-031-  
039-040-051-501-502-505.  
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ503-504.  
FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VAZ025>027-029-  
503-504.  
WV...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR WVZ051>053.  
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ501>503-505-  
506.  
FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR WVZ050-055-  
501>506.  
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR  
ANZ530>534-537>543.  
 
 
 
 
 
SYNOPSIS...KJP  
NEAR TERM...KJP  
SHORT TERM...KJP  
LONG TERM...AVS  
AVIATION...AVS/KJP  
MARINE...AVS/KJP  
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...LWX  
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