148
FXUS61 KLWX 100000
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
800 PM EDT MON MAR 9 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST. WELL
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK,
FOLLOWED BY A STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.
- 2) STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEST OF I-95
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH; A SIGNIFICANT DROP IN TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WINDS
WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT THURSDAY.
- 3) ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
DELIVERING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY CONDITIONS THIS
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
WE OBSERVED WIDESPREAD LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S THIS AFTERNOON. MUCH
OF THE SAME WARMTH ANTICIPATED TUESDAY AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 70S WITH A COUPLE OF LOCATIONS
MAKING IT TO 80 DEGREES. DRY CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN ON TUESDAY
AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF PATCHY FOG
(MAINLY NEAR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY) LATER TONIGHT. RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES MAY BE IN JEOPARDY ON WEDNESDAY AS THIS DAY SHOULD
BE THE WARMEST DAY. SOME DAILY TEMPERATURE RECORDS LOOK POSSIBLE
(SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR MORE INFORMATION).
KEY MESSAGE 2...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
WEST OF I-95 WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A STRONG COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH; A SIGNIFICANT DROP IN TEMPERATURES AND
GUSTY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT THURSDAY.
STILL MONITORING THE PROGRESSION OF A DEEP DIGGING POSITIVELY
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND ITS ASSOCIATED
STRONG COLD FRONT WHICH LOOKS TO CROSS THE AREA DURING THE LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY TIMEFRAME. MEANWHILE, SOUTHERN STREAM
ENERGY WILL BE LIFTING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SPC CURRENTLY HAS A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OUT 5) WEST OF A LINE FROM
FROM FREDERICK/HAGERSTOWN, MD SOUTHWEST TOWARD
STRASBURG/HARRISONBURG/MONTEREY, VA. THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL
1 OUT OF 5) EAST OF THESE AREAS (INCLUDING BOTH THE DC/BALTIMORE
METROS) WITH A FOCUS MAINLY WEST OF I-95. THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH
STORMS WOULD BE WIND AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. SECONDARY THREATS
WOULD INCLUDE AN ISOLATED TORNADO GIVEN THE INCREASED
SHEAR/HELICITY, AND LARGE HAIL WITH DRY AIR ALOFT. CSU
PROBABILITIES REMAIN BETWEEN 15 TO 30 PERCENT FOR ALL SEVERE
HAZARDS AREAWIDE, WHILE NSSL/NCAR PROBS GENERALLY FOCUS ON AREAS
MAINLY WEST OF US-15 AND IN PARTICULAR WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
CIPS PROBABILITIES REMAIN LESS THAN 10 PERCENT FOR THIS EVENT.
PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY REMAIN IN REGARDS TO THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. TIMING WILL BE IMPORTANT ALONG WITH CLOUD
COVER. 6Z/12Z MODEL SOUNDINGS FROM KCHO, KIAD, AND KHGR ALL HAVE
HINTS OF A CAPPING INVERSION WHICH COULD SQUANDER CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. THE QUESTION IS TO IF THE CAP BREAKS AND TO WHEN IT
HAPPENS WITH A FOCUS WEST OF FREDERICK, MD DOWN TOWARD THE I-66/US-
50 CORRIDOR AND POINTS WEST PER THE LATEST CAM GUIDANCE. ONE OR TWO
STRONG STORMS COULD FIRE WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
ALONG A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. ANY OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE (I.E EITHER
MULTICELLULAR CLUSTERS OR SUPERCELLS) GIVEN THE ADDED SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH. CONFIDENCE DROPS OFF WITH THE SEVERE
THREAT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COLD FRONT GIVEN THE PROJECTED TIMING
LATE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. EVEN WITH THAT SAID, A GUSTY
LINE OF SHOWERS COULD EXIST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS THE
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. THE SEVERE THREAT DIMINISHES THURSDAY AFTER
THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. EXPECT ANY RESIDUAL MOISTURE OVER THE
MOUNTAINS TO CHANGE TO SNOW WITH A COATING TO 1" EXPECTED ON
GRASSY/ELEVATED SURFACES.
IN ADDITION TO THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT, WILL BE THE CONCERN FOR
GUSTY WINDS AND A SIGNIFICANT DROP IN TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF
THE WORKWEEK. EXPECT GUSTY SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WEDNESDAY AHEAD
OF THE BOUNDARY SWITCHING TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST THURSDAY BEHIND
THE FRONT. GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH (40 TO 50 MPH ALONG THE RIDGES) CAN
BE EXPECTED IN WARM AIR ADVECTION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS
SOME UNCERTAINTY IN REGARDS TO THESE GUSTS GIVEN MIXING. WITH
GUSTY SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW EXPECT, NEAR RECORD BREAKING
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S AND LOW 80S (LOW 70S MTNS) ARE EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES TAKE A 15 TO 30 DEGREE DIVE THURSDAY AS GUSTY WEST
TO NORTHWEST FLOW RAMPS UP. CONFIDENCE IS A BIT HIGHER HERE FOR
THE WIND GIVEN THE RESIDUAL GRADIENT/HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING
FROM THE SOUTH. A NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE SPREAD IS EXPECTED
WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S OVER THE MOUNTAINS TO
UPPER 50S ALONG AND EAST OF I-95.
KEY MESSAGE 3...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW FOR FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY DELIVERING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY CONDITIONS
THIS WEEKEND.
BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES SOUTH OF THE REGION FRIDAY MORNING
BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE, AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL EJECT EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES TOWARD NEW ENGLAND
WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA
LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF GUSTY
WINDS AND PERHAPS A FEW SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS (MAINLY NORTH OF
I-66/US-50). DEPENDING ON HOW COOL TEMPERATURES GET, THIS COULD
BRING IN A CHANCE FOR SNOW OVER THE MOUNTAINS. UNCERTAINTY IS
STILL HIGH WITH THIS EVENT, AND ADDITIONAL MODEL RUNS WILL HELP
DISCERN THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS WITH THIS EARLY WEEKEND SYSTEM.
A STRONGER COLD FRONT LOOKS TO IMPACT THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK
BRINGING IN EVEN COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR BACK HALF OF MARCH. THIS
ALIGNS WITH CURRENT CPC 8-14 DAY OUTLOOKS WHICH SHOW TEMPERATURES
LIKELY TO LEAN BELOW NORMAL DURING THE MARCH 17-23 TIMEFRAME.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTH THROUGH
TUESDAY AT LESS THAN 10 KTS. SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT
AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT AS MORE WARM/MOIST AIR MOVES IN.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE RETURN OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY. SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO IMPACT THE TERMINALS DURING THIS TIME.
OUTSIDE OF THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL BE THE WIND.
EXPECT GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS UP TO 25 KTS WEDNESDAY
SWITCHING TO THE NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS 25 TO 35 KTS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.
WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE ON FRIDAY BEFORE PICKING BACK UP
AGAIN, ACCOMPANIED BY A SOUTHERLY WIND SHIFT AS ANOTHER FRONT PASSES
THROUGH THE REGION. ANOTHER WIND SHIFT IS EXPECT WITH A STRONGER
FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MARINE
SUB-SCA WINDS PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY IN A LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NEARBY. SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN
SOUTHERLY CHANNELING WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GUSTS OF 20
TO 25 KTS ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY OVER THE OPEN AND MIDDLE
WATERS OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY/TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO A FEW GUSTY SHOWERS/T-STORMS (SMWS
MAY BE NEEDED AS THESE PUSH THROUGH) AND GUSTY POST-FRONTAL
NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW. GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 KTS CAN BE EXPECTED
WITH EVEN SOME NORTHERLY CHANNELING OVER THE NORTHERN CHESAPEAKE
BAY. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE EARLY FRIDAY BEFORE PICKING
BACK UP AGAIN AS A SECOND FRONT PASSES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SOUTHERLY WIND
SHIFT AND PERSISTENT SCA CONDITIONS INTO THE WEEKEND.
FIRE WEATHER
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, WITH MOSTLY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. TONIGHT WILL BE POOR IN RH
RECOVERY ABOVE 3000 FEET, WHERE RH MAY NOT RECOVER OUT OF THE
30S. SOME ISOLATED SPOTS SEE LOWER RH VALUES, ESPECIALLY IN THE
VALLEYS OUT WEST. ADDITIONALLY, SOUTHWEST-FACING ASPECTS COULD
SEE WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.
MINIMUM RH VALUES ON TUESDAY ARE FORECAST BETWEEN 35-45 PERCENT.
SMOKE DISPERSION WILL BE VERY GOOD TO EXCELLENT THROUGH TUESDAY
DUE TO INCREASING TRANSPORT WINDS.
A COLD FRONT IMPACTS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BRINGING A
POTENTIAL OF GUSTY WINDS, WETTING RAIN, THUNDERSTORMS, AND
COLDER TEMPERATURES TO FINISH OUT THE WEEK.
CLIMATE
DAILY HIGH RECORDS COULD BE TIED OR SET TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
WEDNESDAY IS THE MOST LIKELY DAY FOR WARM LOW RECORDS TO BE TIED/SET
DUE TO COOLER AIR ARRIVING AFTER MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
WASHINGTON DC (DCA)
DATE MARCH 9 MARCH 10 MARCH 11
RECORD HIGH 80F/1964 79F/2016 79F/2021
RECORD WARM LOW 52F/2000 57F/2016 57F/2016
WASHINGTON-DULLES (IAD)
DATE MARCH 9 MARCH 10 MARCH 11
RECORD HIGH 82F/2016 80F/2016 79F/2021
RECORD WARM LOW 46F/1964 59F/2016 49F/1967
BALTIMORE (BWI)
DATE MARCH 9 MARCH 10 MARCH 11
RECORD HIGH 82F/2016 80F/2016 79F/2021
RECORD WARM LOW 56F/1921 57F/2016 53F/1955
ANNAPOLIS (NAK)
DATE MARCH 9 MARCH 10 MARCH 11
RECORD HIGH 78F/2000 78F/2016 74F/1967
78F/1964
RECORD WARM LOW 58F/1921 56F/2020 52F/1986
CHARLOTTESVILLE (CHO)
DATE MARCH 9 MARCH 10 MARCH 11
RECORD HIGH 81F/2016 80F/2016 83F/1925
RECORD WARM LOW 59F/1921 58F/2020 53F/2016
MARTINSBURG (MRB)
DATE MARCH 9 MARCH 10 MARCH 11
RECORD HIGH 81F/2016 80F/2016 78F/2021
81F/2000
RECORD WARM LOW 49F/2000 53F/2016 49F/1955
HAGERSTOWN (HGR)
DATE MARCH 9 MARCH 10 MARCH 11
RECORD HIGH 80F/2016 80F/2016 79F/2021
RECORD WARM LOW 49F/2002 57F/2016 53F/2016
49F/1992
BALTIMORE INNER HARBOR (DMH)
DATE MARCH 9 MARCH 10 MARCH 11
RECORD HIGH 79F/2000 82F/2016 76F/1967
79F/1964
RECORD WARM LOW 54F/2000 60F/2016 56F/2016
54F/1992 56F/1955
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KLW/DHOF/CJL/SRT
AVIATION...KLW/DHOF/CJL/SRT
MARINE...KLW/DHOF/CJL/SRT
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