884
FXUS61 KLWX 160122
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
922 PM EDT SUN MAR 15 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED TO WESTERN GARRETT COUNTY,
MD THIS EVENING FOR DOWNSLOPING SOUTHEAST FLOW. OTHERWISE,
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR POTENTIAL SEVERE WX OUTBREAK
MONDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) A STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY,
BRINGING GUSTY WINDS AND POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SIGNIFICANT DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES.
- 2) BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY BEFORE SEASONABLE WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...A STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
MONDAY, BRINGING GUSTY WINDS AND POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SIGNIFICANT DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES.
RAIN SHOWER OR EVEN THUNDERSTORM (NON-SEVERE) CHANCES CONTINUE
TO INCREASE TONIGHT AS A POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRAVERSES
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO CANADA. THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT
LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT. A BAND OF SHOWERS ACCOMPANIES
THIS WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT. THIS COMES WITH LOW CLOUDS
AND CONTINUED BREEZY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS. DEPENDING ON HOW
QUICKLY THIS BOUNDARY CAN LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA, SOME RESIDUAL
STRATUS MAY LINGER ACROSS THE MID- ATLANTIC REGION ON MONDAY
MORNING. THESE SHOULD GRADUALLY SCOUR OUT THOUGH AHEAD OF THE
POWERFUL COLD FRONT OFF TO THE WEST. ONCE THIS OCCURS, A MORE
ROBUST PRE- FRONTAL SOUTHERLY WIND OVERSPREADS THE REGION.
OUTSIDE OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS, EXPECT SOUTHERLY GUSTS TO AROUND
25 TO 35 MPH, LOCALLY NEARING 45 TO 50 MPH IN THE MOUNTAINS.
GRADIENT WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT INCREASE WITH A WIND ADVISORY
IN EFFECT FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ON MONDAY. DID EXPAND THE
WIND ADVISORY TO WESTERN GARRETT COUNTY, MD WHERE SOUTHEASTERLY
DOWNSLOPE WINDS ARE ALREADY NEARING 45 MPH. WIND GUSTS UP TO 55
MPH ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE RIDGES.
AS AN UPPER LOW GRADUALLY CLOSES OFF NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN, A
SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO SHARPEN OVER THE MID-SOUTH MIDDAY MONDAY. AS
THIS TROUGH PIVOTS TOWARD THE EAST COAST, IT BEGINS TO ATTAIN A
NEGATIVE TILT WHICH WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO FURTHER STRENGTHENING
OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM. BASED ON THE FORECAST PARAMETER SPACES,
THE RESULTANT SEVERE WEATHER ASPECT HAS A RATHER HIGH CEILING IN
TERMS OF IMPACTS. CONSEQUENTLY, THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER
(SPC) HAS UPGRADED TO A QUITE RARE DAY 2 MODERATE RISK AREA,
MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS. THIS IS
LARGELY DRIVEN BY THE POTENTIAL OF WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS,
SOME OF WHICH COULD BE SIGNIFICANT IN NATURE, AS WELL AS A
TORNADO RISK.
ONCE ANY EARLIER LOW STRATUS ARE SCOURED OUT, EXPECT AMPLE
DIURNAL HEATING AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW
70S. PROLONGED SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW SHOULD ALSO RAISE DEW
POINTS INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. THE SEASONABLY WARM/MOIST
LOW-LEVELS COUPLED BY STRONG FORCING ALOFT AND CYCLONIC TURNING
OF THE WINDS WITH HEIGHT WILL MAKE FOR A VERY ACTIVE CONVECTIVE
DAY. WHILE THE DEGREE OF VERTICAL SHEAR IS IMPRESSIVE ON ITS OWN
(0-6 KM VALUES AROUND 55 TO 65 KNOTS), THIS COMES WITH MORE THAN
SUFFICIENT BUOYANCY LEVELS AS SURFACE-BASED CAPE VALUES PUSH
INTO THE 500 TO 750 J/KG RANGE. THE SHEAR/INSTABILITY
COMBINATION WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT,
PARTICULARLY FOR ANY DISCRETE CELLS THAT FORM AHEAD OF A LIKELY
SQUALL LINE. ADDITIONALLY, THE DEGREE OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SHOULD
MAKE THIS MORE OF A QUASI-LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEM (QLCS) WHICH
WILL BE CAPABLE OF TORNADOGENESIS. ASIDE FROM ANY TORNADO RISK,
THE STRONG CLOUD-BEARING LEVEL WINDS SHOULD EASILY MIX DOWN IN
CONVECTIVE DOWNDRAFTS. WITH 850-700 MB WINDS AROUND 60-70 KNOTS,
ANY OF THIS HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR BEING TRANSFERRED TO THE SURFACE
COULD YIELD SURFACE WIND GUSTS INTO THE 65 TO 75 MPH RANGE.
THUS, SPC HAS A BROAD AREA OF SIGNIFICANT DAMAGING WIND
POTENTIAL (45-74%) ADVERTISED FROM I-81 EASTWARD IN THEIR LATEST
OUTLOOK.
WITH HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS SHOWING 3 TO 6 HOUR DIFFERENCES IN
CONVECTIVE TIMING, THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN HOW THIS
ALL PLAYS OUT. MOST OF THE UNCERTAINTY IS IN REGARDS TO SPECIFIC
TIMING AND INSTABILITY POTENTIAL. HOWEVER, EXPECT TO BE ON
ALERT FOR ACTIVE WEATHER FROM EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
MUCH OF THE EVENING. ALL RELATED ACTIVITY RACES OFF TO THE EAST,
SOME OF WHICH MAY BE COMPRISED OF STORM ELEMENTS TRACKING
EASTWARD ON THE ORDER OF 45 TO 50 MPH. WHILE NOT EVERYONE SEES A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM, THE OVERALL SPATIAL COVERAGE SHOULD BE
HIGHER THAN NORMAL.
BY MONDAY NIGHT, A POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS PUSHES ACROSS THE
REGION WITH A RAPID COOL DOWN IN TEMPERATURES. THIS WILL LEAD TO
SOME UPSLOPE AIDED SNOW SHOWERS ALONG/WEST OF THE ALLEGHENY
FRONT. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH MOISTURE CAN BE ADVECTED OFF THE
UNFROZEN PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES, AROUND 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. SOME GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THESE
SPILLING OFF THE MOUNTAINS TOWARD THE URBAN CORRIDORS. AS SUCH,
WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FOR LOCATIONS EAST OF
THE ALLEGHENY FRONT.
KEY MESSAGE 2...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE SEASONABLE WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
IT WILL FEEL LIKE A COLD AND BLUSTERY WINTER DAY TUESDAY IN THE WAKE
OF THE STRONG COLD FRONT WITH UPPER TROUGHING OVERHEAD. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE IN THE 20S AND LOWER 30S. THE
LATEST FORECASTS FOR WIND GUSTS WOULD FALL IN THE 30 TO 40 MPH
RANGE, BUT CAN'T RULE OUT SOME STRONGER GUSTS CLOSER TO WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA IN THE MOUNTAINS. IT WILL ALSO BE MOSTLY CLOUDY
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA, WITH SOME OCCASIONAL UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS
IN THE ALLEGHENIES. TUESDAY WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE STRETCH
AS WINDS DROP OFF AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. FORECAST LOWS
RANGE FROM THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S.
WEDNESDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER AND WITH MUCH LESS WIND, BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL. A WEAK WAVE COULD BRING
SOME UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS TO THE ALLEGHENIES WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS TO THE NORTH TOWARD THE WEEKEND, BUT
IT'S UNCERTAIN IF IT WILL BRING ANY RAIN, AS WELL AS WHETHER THERE
IS A RETURN TO COLDER TEMPERATURES BEHIND IT OR NOT.
AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AROUND SUNDOWN TODAY WITH
DRY WEATHER. THE COMBINATION OF HIGH PRESSURE AROUND NEW ENGLAND
AND A FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS WILL LEAD TO PROLONGED
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS. THESE BECOME A BIT BREEZIER IN NATURE INTO
TONIGHT AS WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS TRACK NORTHWARD WITH A WARM
FRONT. THE HIGH OVER NEW ENGLAND IS LEADING TO A
CAD WEDGE OVER THE AREA WITH TERMINALS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
SEEING OVERCAST SKIES.EXPECT CEILINGS TO LOWER THROUGH THE NIGHT
WITH IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY AT ALL TERMINALS THIS EVENING AND
CONTINUING INTO PORTIONS OF MONDAY MORNING. ADDITIONALLY,
INCREASING WIND ALOFT WILL INTRODUCE 40 TO 45 KNOTS OF LOW-LEVEL
SOUTHEASTERLY WIND SHEAR.
MONDAY HAS THE POTENTIAL OF PRODUCING RATHER WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA. ALTHOUGH IMPROVING CEILINGS SHOULD
YIELD VFR CONDITIONS BY AROUND MIDDAY, SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO RACE EASTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING ON
MONDAY. WHILE BACKGROUND SOUTHERLIES MAY GUST TO AROUND 25 TO 30
KNOTS, ANY OF THE MORE POWERFUL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING 55 TO 65 KNOT WIND GUSTS AS WELL AS A FEW TORNADOES.
FOR THE 18Z TAFS, INCLUDED MORNING CONVECTION AND RAIN SHOWERS
IN A PROB30 AND USED A TEMPO FOR THE MORE CONFIDENCE SQUALL LINE
PASSING THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON. OVERALL, EXPECTED
THUNDERSTORMS, SIGNIFICANT DAMAGING WINDS, AND POSSIBLY
TORNADOES TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE CONVECTIVE RISK DROPS OFF
FROM WEST TO EAST AS A STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE
REGION. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR MONDAY NIGHT
WITH A BLUSTERY NORTHWESTERLY WIND.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS
GUST AROUND 25-30 KNOTS FOR MUCH OF TUESDAY MORNING TO AFTERNOON,
THEN WINDS DIMINISH TUESDAY NIGHT. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
MARINE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT ACROSS ALL WATERS UNTIL
1 PM MONDAY WHEN A GALE WARNING GOES INTO EFFECT. FOR THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY, SOUTHEAST WINDS 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30
KT ARE EXPECTED. FOR THE GALE WARNING, SOUTH WINDS 15 TO 25 KT
WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 KT ARE EXPECTED.THE LIMITING FACTOR IS THE
60S TO LOW 70S AIR TEMPERATURES ON TOP OF WATERS IN THE 40S.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO IMPACT THE WATERWAYS LATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS
ARE EXPECTED FOR MANY OF THE THUNDERSTORMS, SOME OF WHICH COULD
PRODUCE WATERSPOUTS. THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
MARINE WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 55 TO 65 KNOTS. ANY CONVECTIVE RISK
ENDS LATE MONDAY BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT. ADVISORY TO NEAR
GALE CALIBER WINDS CONTINUE AS WINDS SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY ON
MONDAY NIGHT.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN LIKELY TUESDAY IN GUSTY WESTERLY
FLOW. A HIGH END SCENARIO WOULD BE CLOSE TO GALE CONDITIONS.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVERHEAD. LIGHT SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF A POWERFUL COLD FRONT WILL CAUSE
A QUICK RISE IN TIDE LEVELS ACROSS THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND TIDAL
POTOMAC RIVER. SENSITIVE LOCATIONS ARE LIKELY TO REACH OR BE CLOSE
TO MINOR FLOOD DURING THE MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING HIGH TIDE.
ANNAPOLIS IS FORECAST TO BE WELL WITHIN MINOR FLOOD STAGE, AND COULD
REACH MODERATE FLOODING IF SOUTHERLY FLOW IS STRONGER AS SOME OF THE
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES, A COASTAL FLOOD
WATCH MAY NEED TO BE ISSUED THIS MORNING. WATER LEVELS QUICKLY
DROP MONDAY NIGHT AS OFFSHORE WINDS TAKE HOLD BEHIND THE FRONT.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT MONDAY FOR MDZ008.
GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 1 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR MDZ008.
COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING FOR MDZ014.
VA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 AM MONDAY TO 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR VAZ503.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM MONDAY TO 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR VAZ507-
508.
WV...WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 AM MONDAY TO 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR WVZ501-
505.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ530>543.
GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 1 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
ANZ530>543.
DISCUSSION...AVS/BRO/CPB/KRR
AVIATION...AVS/BRO/CPB/KRR
MARINE...AVS/BRO/CPB/KRR
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