306  
FXUS61 KLWX 240800  
AFDLWX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC  
400 AM EDT MON JUN 24 2024  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING.  
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY TRAVERSE THE AREA TUESDAY. THE NEXT  
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.  
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE NORTH FRIDAY, THEN ANOTHER  
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH OVER THE WEEKEND.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
 
 
A COLD FRONT IS PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING.  
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE CROSSING THE AREA BUT MOST HAVE BEEN  
DISSIPATING AS GREATER SURFACE INHIBITION IS BEING ENCOUNTERED.  
GUIDANCE DOES INDICATE SOME RENEWAL OF CONVECTION CHANCES,  
ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OF I-95, AS THE FRONT ENCOUNTERS GREATER  
INSTABILITY ACROSS SOUTHERN MARYLAND. ANY SUCH ACTIVITY WOULD  
LIKELY PUSH TO THE SOUTH BY NOON, IF NOT SOONER. LOCATIONS ALONG  
THE ALLEGHENIES MAY ALSO SEE A FEW MORE SHOWERS THROUGH THE  
MORNING HOURS AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES.  
 
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM MID MORNING INTO THE  
AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTS OF 20-30 MPH EXPECTED. REMAINING CLOUDS  
WILL CLEAR, WITH FEW TO SCATTERED CUMULUS. HIGH TEMPERATURES  
WILL RETURN CLOSER TO NORMAL IN THE MID 80S TO NEAR 90. HOWEVER,  
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL PLUMMET, WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID 50S BY  
LATE AFTERNOON.  
 
THAT DRY AIRMASS WILL LEAD TO A RELATIVELY COOL NIGHT AS HIGH  
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST AND WINDS ABATE. THE URBAN  
CENTERS AND BAYSHORE MAY STAY CLOSE TO 70, BUT INTERIOR  
LOCATIONS WILL DROP TO THE MID 50S TO MID 60S. SOME OF THE HIGH  
ELEVATION VALLEYS COULD FALL INTO THE 40S.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
 
 
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL TRANSLATE THROUGH ON TUESDAY AND MOVE TO  
THE SOUTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT. COMFORTABLE DEW POINTS IN THE MID  
TO UPPER 50S REMAIN THROUGH THE DAY, ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL  
REBOUND A LITTLE TO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S. A LIGHT  
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND POTENTIAL CLOUDS WILL RESULT IN WARMER  
CONDITIONS TUESDAY NIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS ARE MOST LIKELY,  
ALTHOUGH SOME GUIDANCE SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS NORTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA  
ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THETA-E ADVECTION.  
 
WITH THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY,  
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ADVECT HEAT AND HUMIDITY BACK INTO THE  
AREA. A SERIES OF TROUGHS AND A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO BE  
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. EARLY DAY CLOUDS AND EVEN  
REMNANT SHOWERS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION, WHICH COULD INHIBIT  
TEMPERATURES SOMEWHAT. HOWEVER, THE POTENTIAL IS STILL THERE FOR  
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S AND HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND  
100-105. WITH THE BUILDING INSTABILITY AND APPROACHING FORCING,  
A THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL EVENTUALLY DEVELOP, ALTHOUGH DETAILS  
ARE STILL FUZZY AT THIS RANGE. CURRENT TIMING FAVORS A LATER  
AFTERNOON TO EVENING PEAK. INCREASED FLOW WITH THE INCOMING  
TROUGH WILL SUPPORT A RISK FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.  
THE COLD FRONT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL PUSH THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY  
NIGHT, WHICH WOULD DIMINISH RAIN CHANCES.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
 
 
AS A COLD FRONT EXITS EARLY THURSDAY, SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY COULD  
LINGER INTO THURSDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES LOWER BEHIND THE COLD  
FRONT THURSDAY INTO THE 80S TO LOW 90S, BUT DEWPOINTS LOOK TO REMAIN  
IN THE LOW-MID 60S DURING THE DAY, DROPPING INTO THE 50S OVERNIGHT  
WITH LOWS TEMPS IN THE 50S TO NEAR 70 ALONG THE WATERS.  
 
A QUICK-MOVING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE PASSES TO OUR NORTH ON FRIDAY.  
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED, BUT A FEW SHOWERS CAN'T BE RULED  
OUT AROUND THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY/VIRGINIA PIEDMONT AS THE CENTER OF  
HIGH PRESSURE SWIFTLY MOVES OFFSHORE BY THE EVENING AND MINOR  
PERTURBATIONS PASS BY ALOFT. TEMPERATURES LOOK RELATIVELY COOLER,  
TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 80S. LOWS HOVER IN THE 60S.  
 
CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED FOR THE POTENTIAL OF WARM FRONTAL PRECIP ON  
SATURDAY, FOCUSED IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE COLD FRONT  
ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING SYSTEM LOOKS TO ARRIVE SUNDAY.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
A COLD FRONT IS PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. IT APPEARS  
THAT ANY ADDITIONAL SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT SHOULD  
BE SOUTHEAST OF THE TAF SITES. WINDS ARE SHIFTING TO THE WEST,  
AND THEN WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY AFTER SUNRISE WITH INCREASING  
GUSTS. GUSTS OF 20-30 KT WILL BE LIKELY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON  
BEFORE ABATING THIS EVENING.  
 
NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS  
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES  
INCREASE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING, PERHAPS IN MULTIPLE  
ROUNDS, AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA. SOUTHWESTERLY  
WINDS MAY ALSO GUST TO 20 KT WEDNESDAY.  
 
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. MOSTLY  
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES TO THE NORTH,  
BUT A FEW SHOWERS/T-STORMS CAN'T BE RULED OUT THURSDAY AM AND FRIDAY  
PM. NW FLOW THURSDAY TURNS SW ON FRIDAY.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS REMAIN GUSTY EARLY THIS MORNING, ESPECIALLY  
ON THE MIDDLE BAY WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS  
THROUGH THIS MORNING WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST THEN  
NORTHWEST. A THUNDERSTORM CAN'T BE RULED OUT NEAR SOUTHERN  
MARYLAND THIS MORNING AS THE FRONT PASSES. A SMALL CRAFT  
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS TODAY. GUSTS OF 20-25 KT  
ARE LIKELY, WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 30 KT NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.  
WINDS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE MONDAY NIGHT, WITH ADVISORIES CONTINUING  
ALONG THE BAY UNTIL 2 AM.  
 
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY, WITH LIGHT WEST  
WINDS BECOMING SOUTHERLY BY TUESDAY NIGHT. AN SCA MAY BE NEEDED  
FOR THE BAY TUESDAY NIGHT DUE TO SOUTHERLY CHANNELING. SCA  
CONDITIONS MAY EXPAND TO ALL WATERS WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY  
EVENING AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INCREASES. THERE WILL ALSO BE AN  
INCREASING THREAT OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON  
AND EVENING AS THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES.  
 
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE  
PASSES TO OUR NORTH. A FRONTAL SYSTEM ARRIVES OVER THE WEEKEND.  
 

 
   
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
 
 
TIDAL ANOMALIES DECREASE TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH NW FLOW. A  
FEW SENSITIVE SITES MAY APPROACH OR EXCEED ACTION STAGE TODAY,  
BUT NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. A RETURN OF SOUTHWEST  
WINDS WEDNESDAY WILL BRING ANOTHER INCREASE IN WATER LEVELS,  
ALTHOUGH NO FLOODING IS FORECAST AT THIS TIME.  
 

 
   
CLIMATE
 
 
VERY HOT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY. SEVERAL  
RECORDS COULD BE IN JEOPARDY, AS SEEN BELOW. BELOW IS A LIST OF  
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR JUN 26TH, THE YEAR THE RECORD WAS  
SET, AND THE CURRENT FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THAT DAY. A  
PLUS SIGN AFTER THE DATE SIGNIFIES THE RECORD WAS SET MULTIPLE  
TIMES, WITH THE MOST RECENT YEAR INDICATED BELOW. RERS ARE ONLY  
ISSUED FOR DCA, IAD, BWI, AND MRB, BUT OTHER SITES ARE SHOWN FOR  
REFERENCE.  
 
WEDNESDAY JUN 26TH  
WASHINGTON-NATIONAL (DCA) 101F (1952) 97F  
WASHINGTON-DULLES (IAD) 95F (1998) 96F  
BALTIMORE (BWI) 99F (1954+) 97F  
MARTINSBURG (MRB) 102F (1943) 94F  
CHARLOTTESVILLE (CHO) 99F (1998) 96F  
ANNAPOLIS (NAK) 98F (1952) 92F  
HAGERSTOWN (HGR) 98F (1954+) 93F  
 

 
   
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
DC...NONE.  
MD...NONE.  
VA...NONE.  
WV...NONE.  
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ530>534-  
537>541-543.  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ535-  
536.  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ542.  
 

 
 

 
 
SYNOPSIS...ADS  
NEAR TERM...ADS  
SHORT TERM...ADS  
LONG TERM...CAS  
AVIATION...ADS/CAS  
MARINE...ADS/CAS  
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...CAS  
CLIMATE...LWX  
 
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