337
FXUS61 KLWX 121932
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
232 PM EST THU FEB 12 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UNCERTAINTY LINGERS ON HOW MUCH COLD AIR WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT STORM.
KEY MESSAGES
- INCREASING CONFIDENCE FOR WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL AND LIMITED
SNOW (I.E THE MOUNTAINS) WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SET TO
IMPACT THE AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
- THE BIG THAW CONTINUES! ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...INCREASING CONFIDENCE FOR WIDESPREAD SOAKING
RAINFALL AND LIMITED SNOW (I.E THE MOUNTAINS) WITH AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE SET TO IMPACT THE AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
FINALLY, SOME BETTER AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS WITH SOME OF THE
HI-RES GUIDANCE NOW CATCHING THE FRONT END OF THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM SET TO IMPACT THE AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. EVEN WITH
THAT SAID, SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCES REMAIN IN REGARDS TO TIMING WITH
SOME OF THE GUIDANCE TRENDING SLOWER (I.E PRECIP STARTING LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON CONTINUING THROUGH PRE-DAWN MONDAY MORNING)
WHILE OTHER MODEL RUNS ARE FASTER. THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM
ALSO REMAINS UNCERTAIN WHILE THE TRACK IS BECOMING A BIT BETTER
ALIGNED.
THE WAFFLING OF BOTH THE DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE MODEL SUITES
CONTINUES TO SHOW A MORE PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM WITH UNPHASED FLOW
(LIMITED INTERACTION BETWEEN THE NORTHERN/SOUTHERN JETSTREAM). MOST
SOLUTIONS HAVE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EJECTING OUT OF THE MID-SOUTH
TOWARD THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS SUNDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON
AND OFF THE VA/NC COAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE,
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN UP ACROSS EASTERN QUEBEC LEAVING A
MARGINAL COLD AIR ALONG AND NORTH OF I-70 AND WEST OF BLUE RIDGE.
THIS PUTS THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR WINTRY WEATHER ALONG THE
CLIMO FAVORED AREAS WEST OF US-15 TOWARD THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
THE ALLEGHENIES, CATOCTINS, CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE, AND HILLTOPS OF
THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS.
THE BULK OF THE AREA WILL LIKELY SEE SOAKING/BENEFICIAL RAINFALL.
LATEST 6/12Z SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO HINT AT A SOUTHERN SUPPRESSION
WHILE THE EURO/EC ARE SLIGHTLY NORTH. WITH THAT SAID, THE
HEAVIEST SLUG OF PRECIPITATION MAY, IN FACT, BE CONFINED TO
AREAS SOUTH OF I- 66/US-50 WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS TO THE NORTH.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THE PROBABILITIES OF 1" OF RAIN
ROUGHLY BETWEEN 10 TO 30 PERCENT ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE HIGHER
END OF THESE PROBS ALONG AND SOUTH OF US-33/I-64. FLOODING
COULD BECOME AN ISSUE IF HIGHER RAINFALL VALUES ARE REALIZED,
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WITH RESIDUAL SNOW PACK AND ICY
RIVERS/CREEKS (NOT TO MENTION THE COLD/LESS ABSORPTIVE GROUND).
ANY FLOODING WILL LIKELY BE DUE TO EXCESSIVE RUNOFF WITH
AVERAGE QPF RIGHT NOW RANGING FROM 0.25-0.50 NORTH OF I-66/US-50
TO 0.50-1" TO THE SOUTH. THESE VALUES ARE DEPENDENT ON WHERE
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS WITH A SUBTLE SHIFT NORTH/SOUTH PLAYING A
BIG DIFFERENCE. LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIT MONDAY MORNING INTO
MONDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S
ACROSS THE AREA WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS AT OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING. HIGHS
MONDAY WILL WARM BACK INTO THE UPPER 30S AND MID 40S AS THE SYSTEM
PULLS AWAY. KEEP CHECKING THE DISCUSSION IN THE COMING DAYS TO
SEE HOW THINGS EVOLVE WITH THIS FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGE 2...THE BIG THAW CONTINUES! ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT NEXT WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
BEHIND THE LATE WEEKEND STORM SYSTEM, HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE
AREA AND STICKS AROUND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
RESULT IN TEMPERATURES RISING WELL ABOVE NORMAL. SOME AREAS COULD
REACH THE 60S BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE PASSING
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES COULD BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST UP TO 25 KT THROUGH EARLY
EVENING, THEN DIMINISH. BKN-OVC040-050 CIGS WILL ALSO PERSIST
THROUGH THIS EVENING, THEN BEGIN TO CLEAR AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO RETURN TO THE AREA SUNDAY AS AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE REGION. THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL
BRING INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE REGION.
RAIN AND SOME WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE MAINLY NORTH AND WEST
OF THE CORRIDOR TERMINALS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW FOR SUBSTANTIAL WINTRY PRECIPITATION WITH 15 TO 25
PERCENT PROBS FOCUSED TOWARD HGR/MRB COMPARED TO IAD. MOST WILL SEE
SOAKING RAINFALL WITH LOCALIZED RUNOFF ON IMPERVIOUS SURFACES. ONCE
AGAIN, THIS IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE BASED UPON THE AVAILABILITY OF
COLD AIR AND TRACK OF LOW PRESSURE. THE STORM SYSTEM PULLS OUT
OF THE AREA MONDAY WITH CONDITIONS BRIEFLY IMPROVING TUESDAY
BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM ARRIVES BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
MARINE
BRISK NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT, MAINLY IN THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY.THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED OVERNIGHT IN THESE AREAS. WINDS
DIMINISH ON FRIDAY AND ARE EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW SCA CRITERIA
THROUGH SATURDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS ON FRIDAY BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT AND THEN SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY ON SATURDAY.
ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE SOUTH. WINDS WILL TURN
EAST AND NORTHEAST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ008.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ530-
535-536-538-542.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR ANZ531-532-
539-540.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ533-534-537-
541-543.
DISCUSSION...LFR/EST
AVIATION...LFR/EST
MARINE...LFR/EST
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page