814
FXUS61 KLWX 271820
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
220 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 247 VALID UNTIL 01Z. FLOOD WATCH REMAINS
UNTIL 20Z. MAY NEED TO ADJUST BOTH DEPENDING ON STORM EVOLUTION OVER
NEXT FEW HOURS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND A FEW INSTANCES OF FLOODING ARE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND A FEW INSTANCES OF FLOODING
ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 01Z FROM PENDLETON
OVER TO ALBEMARLE ARCING UP TO SOUTHERN MD. FIRST ROUND OF
CONVECTION IS MOVING OUT. CONCERN IS FOR SECOND ROUND OF CONVECTION
COMING OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY TO MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THIS AREA AND
POTENTIALLY BECOME SEVERE. OVERALL ENVIRONMENT IS NOT THE BEST GIVEN
THE MOIST PROFILES AND MODEST CAPE, BUT THE SHEAR IS THERE. MOST OF
THE WIND IS ABOVE THE SURFACE AND LOWER LEVELS. AS THE MAIN FRONT
COMES THROUGH LATER, THAT IS WHERE WOFS AND OTHER HIGHER GUIDANCE
HAS SOME BOWING TYPE SEGMENTS DEVELOPING AND MOVING SOUTHEAST.
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE GOING TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM ANY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP TODAY. WHILE NOT EXPECTING
WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS, A FEW COULD PRODUCE WET MICROBURSTS IN A
NEARLY SATURATED ENVIRONMENT. LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE FORECAST
AROUND 7-7.5 C/KM, AND EFFECTIVE DEEP SHEAR AROUND 40 KNOTS. THIS
FAVORS SOME ORGANIZED MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS OR LINE SEGMENTS THAT
CROSS THE AREA FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.
SPC HAS MAINTAINED THE SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OUT OF 5), BUT SHIFTED
IT SOUTH AND A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) TO THE NORTH. STORM
MOTION IS GOING TO BE FASTER AS DEEP-LAYER WINDS INCREASE, BUT
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL COULD PRODUCE SOME FLOOD THREAT.
BY LATE EVENING THE MAJORITY OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL PUSH SOUTH
OF THE AREA, WITH RESIDUAL SOME SHOWERS/STORMS LINGERING INTO THE
EARLY PART OF THE NIGHT. NOT EXPECTING SEVERE WEATHER WITH ANY LATE
CONVECTION IN THE AREA.
THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING, WITH
CLEARING SKIES AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS BEHIND IT. A REINFORCING
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON, WHICH COULD KICK OFF A FEW
SHOWERS AND STORMS IN CENTRAL VA WHERE SOME MOISTURE LINGERS. RAIN
CHANCES ARE LOW AT AROUND 20-30PCT. AFTER THAT, DRY AND SEASONAL
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY.
A FEW EXTRA CLOUDS MAY BE NOTED SATURDAY, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-
66/US-50 AND SOUTH OF I-64 AS A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS PASS NEARBY. THE BIGGER STORY FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL
BE THE RETURN OF SUNSHINE AND SEASONABLE/SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 70S (60S MOUNTAINS) THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S AND 50S. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
WILL PERSISTS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND EXPECTED.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
GREATEST RISK FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FOR THOSE SOUTH OF THE
POTOMAC RIVER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DURING THE 20-00Z PERIOD, THOUGH
TIMING REMAINS UNCERTAIN. A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH TONIGHT,
BRINGING DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. LIGHT
NORTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10-15 KTS.
MARINE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS
THIS AFTERNOON TO EVENING. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS, IN ADDITION TO LIGHTNING STRIKES.
SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR PARTS OF THE
WATERS. A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH ON THURSDAY, AND NORTHERLY
CHANNELING BEHIND THE FRONT COULD PRODUCE SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING WITH THE GREATEST CONFIDENCE ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN WATERS. SUB- SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY FRIDAY.
ADDITIONAL SCAS WILL BE NEEDED SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING DUE TO
NORTHERLY CHANNELING. SUNDAY AND MONDAY BRING NO MARINE HAZARDS AT
THIS TIME.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MDZ501-509-510.
VA...NONE.
WV...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR WVZ501-503-505.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CPB/KRR
AVIATION...CPB/KRR
MARINE...CPB/KRR
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