647  
FXUS61 KLWX 021956  
AFDLWX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC  
256 PM EST FRI DEC 2 2022  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFFSHORE LATE THIS EVENING INTO  
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND MOVE  
THROUGHOUT THE DAY SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS SUNDAY AND INTO  
THE EARLY PART OF THE WORKWEEK. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS AND COLD FRONT  
PASSAGES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BY MID-WEEK.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/
 
 
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE  
DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS AROUND THE MID-ATLANTIC OVER THE  
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS IT BEGINS TO MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT. LOW TO  
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE BEEN MOVING IN FROM THE WEST OVER THE  
LAST SEVERAL HOURS. CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO PACK IN LATER TONIGHT  
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION ON  
SATURDAY.  
 
HIGHS FOR TODAY SHOULD TOP OUT AROUND SEASONABLE AVERAGES FOR THIS  
TIME OF YEAR IN THE 40S AND 50S FOR MOST. WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED  
WHERE THE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHTER AS THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES AWAY  
FROM BEING DIRECTLY OVERHEAD LIKE LAST NIGHT. FOR TONIGHT,  
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW COUPLED WITH INCREASING CLOUDS WILL ALLOW  
FOR A MILDER NIGHT COMPARED TO THURSDAY NIGHT. MOST AREAS SHOULD BE  
IN THE MID 30S (HIGHER ELEVATIONS) TO LOW 40S ELSEWHERE.  
PRECIPITATION MAY BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN AREAS BY 6-8Z  
TONIGHT BEFORE MOVING FURTHER EAST.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
 
 
BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO  
CROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A PRE-  
FRONTAL PUSH OF MOISTURE DURING THE DAY STARTING EARLY SATURDAY  
MORNING. MOST HI-RES GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A LULL JUST BEHIND THE  
INITIAL PRECIP AND THEN ANOTHER ONE FOLLOWING SHORTLY AFTER.  
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS SHOULD BE BENEFICIAL FOR THE AREA WITH MOST  
AREAS RECEIVING A QUARTER OF INCH TO HALF AN INCH BY THE FRONTAL  
PASSAGE.  
 
WINDS ON SATURDAY WILL BE GUSTY FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY. WITH  
THE TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE FROM THE DEPARTING HIGH  
PRESSURE AND INCOMING LOW PRESSURE. THE MOST LIKELY AREAS TO SEE THE  
HIGHEST GUSTS WILL BE ALONG THE ALLEGHENY FRONT AND JUST EAST OF IT  
ON THE DOWNSLOPE. GUSTS OF 45 TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY  
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN GRANT AND  
PENDLETON COUNTIES IN WEST VIRGINIA WHERE A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN  
ISSUED. WARM AIR ADVECTION FROM THE FRONTAL PASSAGE MAY KEEP THE  
GUSTS MORE ISOLATED TO THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS WITHIN THE AREA. THERE  
MAY BE A NEED FOR EXPANSION IN THE ADVISORY, SHOULD GUIDANCE BEGIN  
TRENDING STRONGER LEADING UP TO THE EVENT.  
 
AFTERNOON HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE WITH THE WAA IN  
PLACE (50S AND LOW 60S FOR MOST). THESE ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES  
WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS A POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS BUILDS BEHIND THE COLD  
FRONT. LOWS ON SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S ACROSS  
THE EASTERN AREAS AND COLDER FURTHER WEST (20S FOR THE HIGHER  
ELEVATIONS).  
 
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY WITH HIGH  
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON SUNDAY AND NEAR SEASONABLE ON  
MONDAY.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING CENTERED OVER CANADA WILL BE COMPETING  
WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO  
MAKING FOR A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM  
PERIOD. HOWEVER, THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BEGIN MILD AND DRY WITH  
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF OUR AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY  
WILL BE IN THE 40S TO 50S WITH OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S  
TO 40S. AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES,  
AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST.  
 
BEGINNING TUESDAY MORNING, SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AND THE  
WEATHER WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED UNTIL THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOLLOWING THE  
FRONTAL PASSAGE. ON TUESDAY MORNING, THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY  
REGARDING THE ARRIVAL TIME OF THE PRECIPITATION. IF PRECIPITATION  
FALLS IN THE EARLY HOURS OF THE MORNING, TEMPERATURES MAY BE COLD  
ENOUGH FOR THOSE WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS AND NEAR NORTHERN  
MARYLAND TO SEE A WINTRY MIX. MOST OF THE AREA WILL SEE RAIN DUE TO  
WARMER TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES BEFORE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ARE  
TRENDING WARMER WITH DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S (UPPER 40S  
AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS) FOR MOST ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.FOLLOWING  
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT, TEMPERATURES ARE TRENDING  
COOLER FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH  
HIGH PRESSURE STILL INFLUENCING THE REGION. WINDS WILL REMAIN  
ELEVATED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH GUSTS 10 TO 15 KNOTS  
POSSIBLE FOR THE TERMINALS. LATER THIS EVENING, CLOUDS INCREASE FROM  
THE WEST AND WILL LIKELY BRING LOWER CIGS BY 00Z. PERIODS OF MVFR TO  
IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY BY TOMORROW MORNING FROM WEST TO EAST  
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE  
RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 17Z TO 19Z WITH THE WESTERN TERMINALS  
SEEING IMPROVEMENTS EARLIER THAN THE CORRIDOR TERMINALS. GUSTY  
WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE PRESENT THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING  
BEFORE SUBSIDING ONCE THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. LLWS  
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET IN PLACE FOR THE  
MORNING HOURS ON SATURDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN LATE SATURDAY  
NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY.  
 
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY BEFORE RAIN CHANCES RETURN ON  
TUESDAY. CONDITIONS MAY BE SUB-VFR EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AND DURING  
THE DAY.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
SCA WINDS WILL BEGIN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE HIGH PRESSURE  
MOVES FURTHER OFFSHORE. AN INCOMING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE  
WATERS DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS MAY PRODUCE  
34+ KNOT WINDS IN THEM, ESPECIALLY THE NON-CONVECTIVE LINE THAT MAY  
COME THROUGH THE WATERS LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SMW'S MAY BE NEEDED  
DURING THIS PASSAGE. GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE IN THE POST-FRONTAL  
AIRMASS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE  
RETURNS AND WINDS DIMINISH BELOW SCA CRITERIA.  
 
SOUTHEAST WINDS ON MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SCA CRITERIA. AS  
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF OUR AREA AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM  
THE WEST, WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY AND MAY BE SCA CRITERIA ON  
TUESDAY.  
 

 
   
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
 
 
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING  
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. ANOMALIES WILL INCREASE DURING THIS TIME,  
ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE BAY. A FEW LOCATIONS MAY NEAR  
ACTION STAGE , BUT A SOUTHWESTERLY TRAJECTORY TO THE WIND MAY LIMIT  
HOW MUCH WATER CAN PILE UP. THE MAJORITY OF SURGE GUIDANCE PREDICTS  
WATER LEVELS WELL BELOW MINOR FLOOD THRESHOLDS. OFFSHORE WINDS WILL  
CAUSE ANOMALIES TO FALL LATER SATURDAY NIGHT.  
 

 
   
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
DC...NONE.  
MD...NONE.  
VA...NONE.  
WV...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR WVZ501-505.  
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ530>533-  
538>542.  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST  
SATURDAY FOR ANZ534>537-543.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...ADM  
NEAR TERM...ADM  
SHORT TERM...ADM  
LONG TERM...AVS  
AVIATION...AVS/ADM  
MARINE...AVS/ADM  
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...EST/ADM  
 
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