864
FXUS61 KLWX 300136
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
936 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. A LOCAL STORM REPORT WAS ISSUED
TO OUR WEBSITE AND SLACK MESSAGE EARLIER THIS EVENING IN
RELATION TO THE CONFIRMED EF-1 TORNADO IN NORTHERN ANNE ARUNDEL
COUNTY. ADDITIONAL INSIGHT TO THE DAMAGE MAY NEED TO BE ASSESSED
ON THURSDAY TO SEE IF THERE WAS A SECOND TORNADO.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE AREA DURING
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- 2) MINIMAL CHANCES OF RAIN THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE AREA DURING
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
A SHORTWAVE-TROUGH DROPPING FROM THE GREAT LKS INTO THE OH VALLEY
OVER THE WEEKEND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME CUTOFF BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FORM TO ITS EAST SLOWLY
CROSSING THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY LOOK MINIMAL DUE TO WEAK WINDS ALOFT AND
WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS, SO SEVERE THREAT APPEARS VERY LOW. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF HALF TO ONE INCH SPACED OVER A LONG PERIOD OF TIME MEAN
THIS RAINFALL WOULD BE LARGELY BENEFICIAL AND SHOULD NOT CAUSE ANY
FLOODING CONCERNS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...MINIMAL CHANCES OF RAIN THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE MID ATLANTIC WILL BE IN BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHING
FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO NEW
ENGLAND THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THURSDAY, AND MOISTURE FROM THE
GREAT LAKES WILL RESULT IN A ROBUST CUMULUS/STRATOCUMULUS FIELD.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ALONG WITH LOWER
HUMIDITY.
A COUPLE OF SPRINKLES OR PERHAPS A SHOWER OR TWO COULD ROTATE
INTO THE NORTHCENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN PARTS OF MD OVERNIGHT
FROM THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WELL TO OUR NORTH. THE FORECAST
FOR THURSDAY REMAINS DRY FOR NOW, BUT THERE IS SOME CONSENSUS IN
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SPOKE DROPPING SOUTHWARD DURING THE
AFTERNOON, POTENTIALLY BRINGING MORE ISOLATED SHOWERS TO NE MD.
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL REACH THE AREA FRIDAY. SHORTWAVE RIDGING
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AS THE UPPER LOW DEPARTS. DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO
CLIMATOLOGY IN THE MID 80S TO NEAR 90 AND LOWS IN THE 60S TO
AROUND 70.
AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, ALTHOUGH
CUMULUS MAY BE BROKEN AT TIMES. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS (UP TO 25
KT AT TIMES) WILL DIMINISH INTO THE NIGHT. NORTHWESTERLY WIND
GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT WILL RENEW DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS OF
THURSDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE LIGHT WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS
FRIDAY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK,
WHICH MAY RESULT IN FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS.
MARINE
NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 20-25 KNOTS WILL RESULT IN THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT ALONG THE BAY. WINDS WILL PICK
BACK UP ELSEWHERE AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY, BUT THE BEST WIND
FIELD WILL GRADUALLY RETRACT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD CLOSER TO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY, RESULTING IN LIGHTER WINDS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY
ON STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
TIDAL ANOMALIES WILL REMAIN SUPPRESSED BY NORTHWEST WINDS,
ALTHOUGH SENSITIVE TIDAL LOCATIONS MAY STILL REACH ACTION STAGE
DURING THE HIGH TIDE CYCLES. THIS WEEKEND, TIDAL ANOMALIES MAY
RISE WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS. ANNAPOLIS MAY APPROACH MINOR FLOOD
STAGE BY SATURDAY MORNING.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR MDZ008.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ530-531-
539.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ532>534-
537-540-541-543.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ535-
538.
DISCUSSION...ADS/LFR/KLW
AVIATION...ADS/LFR/KLW
MARINE...ADS/LFR/KLW
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