187
FXUS61 KLWX 291807
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
207 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2025
SYNOPSIS
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY WILL
CROSS OVERHEAD THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA
SATURDAY, WITH ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SET TO APPROACH FROM
THE GREAT LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
LIGHT SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES CONTINUED TO PIVOT NORTHWESTWARD
AS OF EARLY AFTERNOON IN ONSHORE FLOW. THIS PATTERN WILL
PERSIST AHEAD OF BENEFICIAL RAIN ON THE WAY FOR TONIGHT.
A PAIR OF CLOSED LOWS OVER LAKE ERIE AND ARKANSAS ARE IN THE
PROCESS OF MERGING/PHASING. THIS WILL DRIVE A DYNAMIC WEATHER
SYSTEM ACROSS OUR AREA. THE PRIMARY LOW IS NEAR THE TENNESSEE
RIVER VALLEY. ANOTHER COASTAL LOW SEEMS TO BE DEVELOPING EAST
OF SOUTH CAROLINA WHICH MAY PLAY A ROLE IN CONVECTION/WARM
SECTOR DYNAMICS LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
THE MAIN IMPACTFUL PERIOD WILL BE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS
STRONG ASCENT AND MOISTURE FLUX OVERSPREAD THE AREA AHEAD OF THE
LOW APPROACHING FROM THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY. MODERATE TO
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED, SUPPORTED BY PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES NEAR 1.5 INCHES.
A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY LATE
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME, THE INSTABILITY
APPEARS TO BE MOSTLY ELEVATED, THUS LIMITING ANY SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT OVERNIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH THE DYNAMIC WIND FIELDS. MOST
HI-RES GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A BRIEF/NARROW CORRIDOR OF
NEAR SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONGLY
FORCED FRONTAL RAIN BAND THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.
THIS WOULD BE THE RESULT OF MORE DYNAMICS FROM THE COASTAL LOW,
AND HAS RESULTED IN SPC EXPANDING A MARGINAL SEVERE WEATHER
OUTLOOK FOR THURSDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE MID-ATLANTIC. GIVEN THE
STRENGTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL WINDS, A BRIEF TORNADO CAN'T BE RULED
OUT IN ADDITION TO A FEW DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WIND GUSTS.
GENERALLY 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN IS FORECAST, THOUGH SOME LOCATIONS
COULD GET A BIT LESS. CAMS ALSO INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY
3 INCHES OF RAIN DUE TO TERRAIN ENHANCEMENTS AND/OR HEAVIER
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS. THIS RAIN SHOULD BE MOSTLY BENEFICIAL GIVEN
RECENT DRY CONDITIONS, THOUGH SOME LOCALIZED ISSUES COULD ARISE
WHERE THERE ARE HEAVIER RAIN RATES. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TRENDS
IN EASTERLY UPSLOPE AREAS, AS WELL. LATEST TRENDS ARE FOR THE
HEAVIEST RAIN TO BE BETWEEN THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS AND I-95.
WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE AS THE LOW PASSES, BUT LIKELY WON'T
REACH HAZARDOUS LEVELS. THE HIGHER RIDGETOPS ABOVE 2000 FT COULD
SEE SOME GUSTS OVER 40 MPH, AND PERHAPS ON THE WESTERN SLOPES
(DOWNSLOPE SIDE) OF THE ALLEGHENIES. TIDAL FLOODING WILL ALSO BE
AN ISSUE (SEE THE TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING SECTION BELOW).
TEMPERATURES, WHICH COULD BE NON-DIURNAL IN NATURE, WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON THE LOW TRACK. LOCATIONS WHICH BREAK INTO THE WARM
SECTOR WILL REACH THE 60S THURSDAY. WHILE TIMING IS STILL A BIT
UNCERTAIN, WE SHOULD SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS BEGINNING
THURSDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
REMAINING PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME FOCUSED ON THE ALLEGHENIES
AS WINDS TURN WESTERLY AND LOCATIONS TO THE EAST ARE DRY SLOTTED.
THE HIGHEST PEAKS COULD SEE A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW LATE AT NIGHT.
A SECONDARY FRONT WILL CROSS OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. WESTERLY
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FIRST IN THE MOUNTAINS, AND
ELSEWHERE ESPECIALLY SO AFTER SUNRISE FRIDAY. WIND ADVISORY
CONDITIONS (AT LEAST 46 MPH GUSTS) ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND POSSIBLY NORTH OF US-50 IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.
ELSEWHERE, 25-40 MPH GUSTS SEEM LIKELY. SOME UPSLOPE
PRECIPITATION COULD LINGER THROUGH THE DAY AND POSSIBLY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER, THE MOISTURE LAYER WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY SHALLOW AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE MARGINAL, THUS NOT
EXPECTING MUCH WINTRY IMPACT. IN THE LOWLANDS, WINDS DROP OFF
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 30S TO MID 40S.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PIVOTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
ON SATURDAY BEFORE DEEPENING AND TRACKING EASTWARD TOWARDS THE
EAST COAST ON SUNDAY. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVERHEAD FROM THE SOUTH WITH PRIMARILY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
EACH DAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE MONDAY, WHERE THE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH PUSHES A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. MOISTURE
REMAINS LIMITED WITH THE FRONT, LEADING TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN ON TUESDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS RETURNING.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S EACH DAY WITH THOSE
ALONG THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS STAYING IN THE 40S. OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE 30S AND 40S EACH NIGHT.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR CEILINGS ENCOMPASS MOST OF THE AREA WITH LIGHTER NORTHEAST
WINDS AS OF EARLY AFTERNOON, THOUGH MVFR HAD DEVELOPED AT CHO
AND WAS SPREADING NORTH NEAR IAD/DCA. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES CONTINUE TO MOVE ABOUT THE AREA AT TIMES, BUT IMPACTS
SHOULD BE MINIMAL THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. MVFR CEILINGS
WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD, WITH IFR CEILINGS LIKELY
DEVELOPING AT CHO BY NIGHTFALL. IFR LIKELY WON'T REACH THE
REMAINDER OF THE TERMINALS MID EVENING. LIGHT SHOWERS WILL
BECOME MORE COMMON DURING THIS TIME.
THE MAIN IMPACTFUL PERIOD WILL COME TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING WITH CONTINUED IFR CEILINGS (PERHAPS LIFR AT CHO AND
MRB) AND MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN. CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS; TIMING IS A BIT UNCERTAIN, BUT IT APPEARS
THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE DURING THE 10Z-16Z TIMEFRAME IN THE
METRO AREAS. HAVE MAINTAINED THIS AS A PROB30 GROUP SINCE
LIGHTNING STRIKES SHOULD BE SPARSE. WON'T INCLUDE A MENTION AT
CHO AND MRB SINCE INSTABILITY DECREASES TO THE WEST. THERE COULD
ALSO BE SOME LLWS TONIGHT AS A LOW-LEVEL JET MOVES OVERHEAD,
BUT WITH LITTLE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AND SURFACE WINDS INCREASING
(EASTERLY GUSTS OF AT LEAST 20-25 KT), IT MAY NOT MEET THE 2000
FT CRITERIA (WHERE WINDS WILL BE ABOUT 45 KT). CONDITIONS SHOULD
GRADUALLY IMPROVE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WEST WIND
GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 KNOTS WILL DEVELOP AROUND SUNRISE FRIDAY AND
LAST THROUGH THE DAY.
WEST WINDS GUSTING 15 TO 20 KNOTS SATURDAY MORNING WEAKEN THROUGHOUT
THE DAY BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. WINDS REMAIN
OUT OF THE WEST ON SUNDAY, BLOWING 5 TO 10 KNOTS AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVERHEAD. NO PRECIPITATION AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS ALL TERMINALS.
MARINE
A BIT OF A LULL IN NORTHEAST FLOW IS BEING OBSERVED ACROSS PARTS
OF THE AREA AS OF EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS INCREASE AGAIN TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE TENNESSEE RIVER
VALLEY ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC. THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
NEAR-GALE CONDITIONS TONIGHT, BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH
FOR A WATCH/WARNING, ESPECIALLY SINCE DURATION MAY BE BRIEF.
THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS, OR AT LEAST
HEAVIER RAINS LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
SOME GUIDANCE INDICATES A BRIEF BREAK IN WINDS AS THE LOW
PASSES NEARBY LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. EVEN SO, SCA
CONDITIONS WILL RESUME/CONTINUE BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AS WINDS
TURN SOUTHWEST THEN WESTERLY. A SECONDARY FRONT PASSES EARLY
FRIDAY WITH A STRONG PRESSURE SURGE BEHIND IT. GALE WATCHES HAVE
BEEN ISSUED FOR FRIDAY GIVEN AN UPTICK IN WINDS IN RECENT
GUIDANCE. WEST WINDS GUSTING 15 TO 20 KNOTS SATURDAY MORNING MAY
LEAD TO POSSIBLE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. WINDS DIMINISH BELOW SCA CRITERIA SATURDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
TIDAL ANOMALIES WERE STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING AS OF EARLY
AFTERNOON. THE HIGHER OF THE TWO DAILY TIDES IS THURSDAY
MORNING/MIDDAY. BY THIS TIME, INCREASING ONSHORE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST AND EVENTUALLY SOUTH FLOW IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO A
SURGE OF WATER, WITH TIDES EXPECTED TO RUN 2 TO 3 FEET ABOVE
NORMAL THURSDAY MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT
IN MINOR FLOODING ACROSS MOST SHORELINE, WITH MODERATE FLOODING
IN THE MORE VULNERABLE SPOTS. IN PARTICULAR, GIVEN THE WIND
DIRECTION, ANNAPOLIS COULD PUSH WELL INTO MODERATE. THE EXACT
WIND DIRECTION, STRENGTH, AND DURATION WILL HAVE A SUBSTANTIAL
IMPACT ON THE EXACT TIDE LEVELS, SO BE SURE TO CHECK BACK FOR
UPDATES THROUGH THURSDAY. THEREAFTER, OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CAUSE
ANAMOLIES TO STEADILY DECREASE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EDT
THURSDAY FOR DCZ001.
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 PM EDT
THURSDAY FOR MDZ011.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT
FRIDAY FOR MDZ014.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR MDZ016.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR MDZ017.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 2 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
MDZ017.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR MDZ018.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
MDZ018.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 3 AM THURSDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT
THURSDAY NIGHT FOR MDZ508.
VA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR VAZ057.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR VAZ054.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THURSDAY TO 6 AM EDT FRIDAY
FOR VAZ054.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
VAZ054.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ530>534-537-
539>543.
GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR
ANZ530>543.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ535-536-
538.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT TO 6 AM EDT
FRIDAY FOR ANZ535-536-538.
SYNOPSIS...ADS/DHOF
NEAR TERM...ADS/DHOF
SHORT TERM...ADS/DHOF
LONG TERM...AVS
AVIATION...ADS/AVS/DHOF
MARINE...ADS/AVS/DHOF
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...DHOF
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