421
FXUS61 KLWX 081350
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
850 AM EST SUN FEB 8 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST. WILL BE EVALUATING THE
NEED FOR ANY COLD WEATHER HEADLINES FOR TONIGHT (OR PERHAPS INTO
THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND).
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) VERY COLD AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
MORNING, FOLLOWED BY MODERATING TEMPERATURES THROUGH MIDWEEK.
- 2) MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES MAY BRING A CHANCE FOR WINTRY
PRECIPITATION DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...VERY COLD AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS CONTINUE
THROUGH THIS MORNING, FOLLOWED BY MODERATING TEMPERATURES
THROUGH MIDWEEK.
GUSTY WINDS AND COLD TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THIS MORNING
WITH EXTREME COLD WARNINGS AND COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES IN EFFECT.
AS WINDS DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY, WIND CHILLS WILL STAY ABOVE
ZERO THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH
THE EXCEPTION BEING THE ALLEGHENIES. COLD TEMPERATURES CONTINUE
TONIGHT, ALTHOUGH REDUCED WINDS LEAD TO WIND CHILLS LIKELY
STAYING ABOVE ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. GUSTY
WINDS LINGER IN NE MARYLAND WHERE ADDITIONAL COLD WEATHER
ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED, ALTHOUGH WIND CHILLS ARE MARGINAL AT
THIS TIME.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC TODAY THROUGH
MONDAY WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE 30S FOR MOST WITH
HIGHER ELEVATIONS STAYING IN THE 20S. WINDS SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY
ON TUESDAY WITH WARM AIR BRINGING HIGH TEMPERATURES TO THE 50S
FOR THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY AND THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. FURTHER NORTH, TEMPERATURES TAKE LONGER TO WARM
UP WITH HIGHS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-66 RISING INTO THE UPPER 30S
TO 40S. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING THE HIGH TEMPERATURES
FORECAST ON TUESDAY AND JUST HOW MUCH TEMPS WARM IN THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER, HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 30S ACROSS THE AREA WITH A
SHARP TEMPERATURE GRADIENT OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
KEY MESSAGE 2...MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES MAY BRING A CHANCE FOR
WINTRY PRECIPITATION DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD.
THE NEXT PATTERN SHIFT OCCURS DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PORTIONS
OF THE WEEK. AN UPPER TROUGH INITIALLY CROSSING SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA
EVOLVES INTO A CLOSED LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY. DEPENDING ON THE DEGREE AND PLACEMENT OF FORCING, SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION LIKELY OVERSPREADS THE LOCAL AREA. WITH RESIDUAL
COLD AIR LEFT IN PLACE, A BRIEF RAIN/SNOW MIX WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG
THE ALLEGHENIES. HOWEVER, THE GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED DRIER DOWNSTREAM
AS A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BEGINS TO SCOUR OUT MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN.
THIS SOLUTION MAY FLUCTUATE IN SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS. HOWEVER, EVEN
IF MODELS RAMP BACK UP, THERMAL PROFILES WOULD SUPPORT RAIN AS THE
DOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE.
LOOKING AHEAD TOWARD THE LATE WEEK INTO WEEKEND PERIOD, ADDITIONAL
PERTURBATIONS IN THE FLOW KEEP LOW-END PROBABILITIES (15 TO 25
PERCENT) FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST. AS TEMPERATURES COOL
THROUGH THE WEEK, SOME OF THIS WOULD BE COMPRISED OF A RAIN/SNOW
MIX. THE OVERALL SURFACE PATTERN DOES SHOW HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
FROM THE GREAT LAKES WHILE A WAVY FRONTAL ZONE ARCS ALONG THE
SOUTHERN U.S. UNCERTAINTY IS UNUSUALLY HIGH TOWARD THE END OF THE
PERIOD GIVEN THE COMPLEXITIES OF THE FLOW TO RESOLVE. DETERMINISTIC
MODELS CONTINUE TO VARY WILDLY FROM RUN TO RUN, BUT THIS IS NOT
SURPRISING AT THIS POINT. IT DOES REMAIN A PERIOD TO MONITOR
AHEAD.
AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE TERMINALS TODAY WITH
WINDS GUSTING UP TO 25 KNOTS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WINDS WILL BE
SLIGHTLY LIGHTER AT KCHO WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KNOTS
EXPECTED. WINDS DIMINISH OVERNIGHT, BLOWING 5 TO 10 KNOTS ACROSS
ALL TERMINALS. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH
NORTHWEST WINDS ON MONDAY SHIFTING TO SOUTHERLY ON TUESDAY. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY.
WITH THE FORECAST TRENDING DRIER ON WEDNESDAY, VFR CONDITIONS ARE
LOOKING MORE LIKELY IN THE POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT. EXPECT A BRISK
NORTHWESTERLY WIND, PARTICULARLY DURING THE CORE DAYTIME HEATING
HOURS. GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS MANY OF THE
TERMINALS.
MARINE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE WATERS TODAY.
NORTHWEST WINDS GUST 20 TO 25 KNOTS OVER THE WATERS THROUGHOUT
THE DAY BEFORE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. ADDITIONALLY SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY TONIGHT
BEFORE WINDS ACROSS ALL WATERS DIMINISH TO BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA ON MONDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD WITH
WINDS REMAINING LIGHT OVER THE WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY.
IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT, NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OVERSPREAD THE
AREA WATERS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WHILE THE LATEST
FORECAST PACKAGE SHOWS GUSTS JUST BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS (18
KNOTS), WOULD NOT BE SHOCKED IF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WOULD BE
NEEDED AT TIMES.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
BLOWOUT TIDES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LOW TIDE THIS MORNING DUE TO
STRONG OFFSHORE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. WATER LEVELS ARE FORECAST
TO DROP TO -2FT MLLW NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE AND IN THE UPPER
TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER, WITH -1 FT MLLW ELSEWHERE. WITH HIGH ICE
CONCENTRATIONS IN THE NORTHERN/MIDDLE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND TIDAL
POTOMAC RIVER, EXPECT THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGE TO DOCKS,
MOORINGS, AND BOATS, ETC. GIVEN THE BLOWOUT OF WATER/ICE BLOCKS
AWAY FROM THE SHORE.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR DCZ001.
MD...EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
MDZ003>006-008-011-013-014-018-501>510.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MDZ016-
017.
VA...EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
VAZ025>031-053-054-501-503>508-526-527.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
VAZ036>040-050-051-055>057-502.
WV...EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
WVZ050>053-055-501>506.
MARINE...LOW WATER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ530-531-
535-536-538-539.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
ANZ530>543.
DISCUSSION...AVS/BRO/DHOF
AVIATION...AVS/BRO/DHOF
MARINE...AVS/BRO/DHOF
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