431
FXUS61 KLWX 180048
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
848 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2025
SYNOPSIS
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE INITIALLY LOCATED OVER THE VIRGINIA
TIDEWATER WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT. THEREAFTER,
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AND REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
LOW PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE TIDEWATER OF VIRGINIA
THIS EVENING. AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF CLOUD COVER SURROUNDS THIS
LOW, EXTENDING NORTHWARD TO PA/NJ AND WESTWARD TO THE CREST OF
THE APPALACHIANS. ANY REMAINING SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH THIS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ARE VERY LIGHT, BARELY NOTICEABLE ON RADAR
RETURNS AT THIS HOUR. MOST AREAS ARE EITHER NOT OBSERVING
PRECIPITATION NOW, OR JUST SEEING SOME LIGHT TO MODERATE
DRIZZLE.
THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN AND TRACK
OFFSHORE TONIGHT. HOWEVER, LOW CLOUDS AND DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. THE CLOUDS AND DRIZZLE MAY BEGIN TO
BREAK UP LATE TONIGHT TO THE WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE, AND
POTENTIALLY IN CENTRAL VIRGINIA AS WELL. IF THIS OCCURS, THE
COMBINATION OF CLEARING SKIES, CALM WINDS, AND AMPLE LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL LIKELY LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG. SOME OF
THIS FOG COULD POTENTIALLY BE DENSE IN NATURE. LOW TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID-UPPER 50S TO THE WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE AND ACROSS CENTRAL VIRGINIA, AND LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S
FURTHER EAST.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
SHORTWAVE TROUGHING WILL LIFT OFF TO OUR NORTH AND EAST THROUGH
THE DAY TOMORROW AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY/GREAT LAKES. ANY RESIDUAL LOW CLOUDS OR FOG SHOULD BREAK
UP BY AROUND MID-LATE MORNING, LEADING TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
DURING THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTHWEST
AND TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REACH INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTHWEST,
AND TEMPERATURES WILL TREND A FEW DEGREES WARMER, WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
PRIMARILY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND. A WARM
FRONT LIFTING NORTH WILL BRING LOW END PRECIPITATION CHANCES(20% OR
LESS) TO THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WITH THE REST OF THE AREA STAYING DRY BOTH DAYS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES EACH DAY WILL BE IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S FOR MOST WITH
HIGHER ELEVATIONS STAYING IN THE 60S. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN THE 50S TO 60S ACROSS THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARM MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND FLOW SHIFTS SOUTHERLY. DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE
MONDAY BEFORE A NEARBY FRONT BRINGS INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES
TO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WARM TO THE LOW 80S FOR MOST WITH HIGHER ELEVATIONS
STAYING IN THE 70S.
AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
IFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. CLOUDS MAY
BEGIN TO BREAK UP LATER TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY FOR MRB AND CHO.
WHERE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS OCCUR, FOG IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP. SOME
OF THE FOG COULD BE LOCALLY DENSE. HAVE ACTUALLY ADDED IN SOME
VERY LOW VSBYS INTO MRB AND CHO TAFS AFTER 09Z THURSDAY, AS
CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED. LOW CEILINGS AND FOG WILL BREAK UP BY
AROUND MID-MORNING TOMORROW, LEADING TO A RETURN TO VFR
CONDITIONS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED ON BOTH THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS DURING THAT TIME AS WELL.
EAST WINDS ON SATURDAY SHIFT TO SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED BOTH DAYS OVER THE WEEKEND WITH WINDS GUSTING AROUND 10
KNOTS EACH AFTERNOON.
MARINE
SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE NORTH OF DRUM POINT THIS EVENING IN
GUSTY N TO NE FLOW. SCAS NEEDED TO BE EXTENDED AS A RESULT, AS
WINDS HAVE LINGERED A BIT LONGER THAN ANTICIPATED.
WINDS SHOULD EVENTUALLY DROP BACK BELOW SCA LEVELS FOR ALL
WATERS BY AROUND MIDNIGHT. SUB-SCA LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN
NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TOMORROW, AND THEN LIGHT AND
VARIABLE FLOW ON FRIDAY. WINDS MAY NEAR LOW-END SCA LEVELS IN
CHANNELED NORTHERLY FLOW LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY AS EAST WINDS GUST
NEAR CRITERIA. WINDS SHIFT TO SOUTHEAST AND DIMINISH SUNDAY WITH NO
MARINE HAZARDS EXPECTED.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE VIRGINIA TIDEWATER WILL
WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS OFFSHORE TONIGHT. ANOMALIES REMAIN ELEVATED,
AND MORE SENSITIVE LOCATIONS MAY APPROACH MINOR FLOOD STAGE WITH
THE TIDE CYCLE TONIGHT. HAVE ACTUALLY WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED AN
ADVISORY FOR ANNAPOLIS IN THE OVERNIGHT HIGH TIDE CYCLE.
ANOMALIES ARE STARTING TO TAKE A BIT OF A DIP, INCREASING
CONFIDENCE IN JUST MINOR FLOODING THERE.
ANOMALIES ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE THEREAFTER AS WINDS TURN OUT
OF THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ008.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT
THURSDAY FOR MDZ014.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
ANZ530>533-538>541.
SYNOPSIS...KJP
NEAR TERM...CJL/KJP
SHORT TERM...KJP/KRR
LONG TERM...AVS
AVIATION...AVS/CJL/KJP
MARINE...AVS/CJL/KJP
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...CJL/KJP
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