386
FXUS61 KLWX 041421 AAA
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1021 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS WERE INCREASED AS SOUTHERLY GUSTS
EXCEED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH MIDWEEK. OTHERWISE,
NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST. WE'RE ANALYZING FIRE
WEATHER RISK FOR TUESDAY AS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
REACH CRITICAL FIRE THRESHOLDS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) WARMING TEMPERATURES AND MOUNTAIN RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED
TODAY AND TOMORROW.
- 2) A STRONG COLD FRONT BRINGS WIDESPREAD RAINFALL MIDWEEK,
FOLLOWED BY COOLER TEMPERATURES.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...WARMING TEMPERATURES AND MOUNTAIN RAIN SHOWERS
EXPECTED TODAY AND TOMORROW.
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH RETURN
FLOW USHERING IN WARMER TEMPERATURES. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
OVERHEAD AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.
PRIMARILY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY WITH THE
EXCEPTION BEING RAIN SHOWERS AND AN OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORM
POSSIBLE MAINLY WEST OF I-81. MINIMAL CLOUD COVER AND GUSTY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS HIGH TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE 70S
FOR MOST WITH HIGHER ELEVATIONS STAYING IN THE MID 60S.
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE WARMING TOMORROW WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO
MID 80S. CLOUD COVER INCREASES FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT TRACKS FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
TO JUST NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A STRONG COLD FRONT BRINGS WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
MIDWEEK, FOLLOWED BY COOLER TEMPERATURES.
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FORMS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND BEGINS TO
TRACK THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY, BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
POTENTIALLY THROUGH LATE THURSDAY. EARLY QPF ESTIMATES ARE STILL
RANGING BETWEEN 0.5-1.25 INCHES OF RAINFALL DURING THIS PERIOD, WITH
THE ECMWF TRENDING HIGHER THAN THE GFS AS OF THE 12Z/18Z RUNS. THE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISK HAS TRENDED LESS LIKELY OVER THE LAST 24
HOURS, WITH NCAR'S MEDIUM-RANGE CONVECTIVE HAZARDS AND CSU'S MEDIUM-
RANGE CONVECTIVE FORECASTS PLACING MOST OF THE MID-ATLANTIC OUTSIDE
OF THEIR 5%-15% PROBABILITY AREAS FOR NOW. REGARDLESS, ANY RAINFALL
WILL BE WIDELY BENEFICIAL FOR THE AREA GIVEN CURRENT DROUGHT
CONCERNS. TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO DROP AGAIN ONCE THIS FRONT PASSES
THROUGH, WITH HIGHS FOR THURSDAY LARGELY RANGING IN THE 50S AND LOW
60S. TEMPERATURES COULD BEGIN TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY AGAIN GOING INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THIS WEEKEND, BRINGING ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES
TO THE REGION.
AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TERMINALS THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE GREATEST IMPACT TO TERMINALS WILL BE GUSTY
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS EACH AFTERNOON. WINDS GUST 15 TO 20 KNOTS
THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS EXPECTED TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.
ON WEDNESDAY, A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION WITH SUB VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED DUE TO RAIN. ADDITIONALLY, SOUTHWEST WINDS
GUST UP TO 25 KNOTS IN THE MORNING. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE, WINDS SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GUSTS
DECREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS ON THURSDAY.
MARINE
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE UPPER AND MIDDLE
PORTIONS OF THE TIDAL POTOMAC THIS AFTERNOON AS WINDS GUST 20
KNOTS INLAND. ADDITIONAL SCAS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY.
SOUTHERLY CHANNELING WILL LEAD TO INCREASED WINDS ACROSS THE
WATER TONIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL SCAS LIKELY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. GUSTS DECREASE TO 15-20 KNOTS ON THURSDAY BUT WILL
STILL LIKELY RANGE ABOVE SCA LEVELS. SOUTHERLY WINDS SHIFT
NORTHERLY BY THURSDAY MORNING.
FIRE WEATHER
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TOMORROW WILL BE EXTREME, PARTICULARY
THE WINDS WITH GUSTS WELL OVER 30 MPH MAKING POTENTIAL FIRES
MORE DIFFICULT TO CONTAIN EVEN IF FUELS ARE NOT AS DRY AS THEY
WERE TWO WEEKS AGO. RH'S SHOULD REACH 25% OR LESS, PERHAPS
LOWER IF A TONGUE OF DRY AIR AT 925 MB REACHES DOWN TO THE
SURFACE. QUESTIONS LINGER ON THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SHOWERS
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS BEING
CONSIDERED FOR AREAS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ008.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR MDZ008.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ530-
531-535-536-538-539-542.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ530-
531-535-536-538-539-542.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
ANZ532>534-537-540-541-543.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ532>534-537-
540-541-543.
DISCUSSION...AVS/LFR/SRT
AVIATION...AVS/LFR/SRT
MARINE...AVS/LFR/SRT
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