950
FXUS61 KLWX 191422
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
922 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2025
SYNOPSIS
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FOR SATURDAY. A DRY
FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRIEFLY MOVE OVERHEAD MONDAY, BUT ANOTHER MOISTURE-STARVED
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL LIKELY CROSS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
A STRONG COLD FRONT WAS MOVING EAST OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AS OF
MID MORNING. UPSTREAM, A SECONDARY WAVE WAS APPROACHING THE
APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. IT IS THIS WAVE THAT WILL KICK OFF SOME
OF THE STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS.
HAVE EXPANDED THE HIGH WIND WARNING INTO THE EASTERN WV
PANHANDLE, NORTH-CENTRAL MD, AND FAR NW VA. THIS IS WHERE THE
APEX OF THE NEGATIVELY-TILTED TROUGH PASSES DURING PEAK DIURNAL
HEATING, ACCOMPANIED BY THE STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD.
GUSTS INCREASE WITH THE SECONDARY SURGE FROM WEST TO EAST
BETWEEN 10 AM AND 3 PM. THIS SURGE WILL LIKELY BE ACCOMPANIED BY
A RAPID CHANGE TO HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE ALLEGHENIES. TO
THE EAST, A FEW SHOWERS (PERHAPS MIXED WITH GRAUPEL) ARE
POSSIBLE, AND THESE SHOWERS COULD MIX DOWN GUSTS TO NEAR 60 MPH
EVEN OUTSIDE OF THE HIGH WIND WARNING (THOUGH OPTED TO KEEP THE
ADVISORY GIVEN LOCALIZED/BRIEF NATURE; DID EXPAND ADVISORY INTO
PRINCE WILLIAM CO. TO SOUTHERN MD GIVEN INCREASED CONFIDENCE).
OVER THE MOUNTAINS, GUSTY SNOW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SQUALLS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, WITH A LOCALIZED
DUSTING POSSIBLE IMMEDIATELY IN THE LEE AS WELL DUE TO HIGH
FROUDE NUMBERS (INDICATING UNBLOCKED FLOW). THE FAVORED HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SEE GENERALLY 2 TO 4 INCHES. A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT, AND WILL CLOSELY
MONITOR AREAS IN NW HIGHLAND AND EXTREME WESTERN ALLEGANY CO.
ANOTHER PUNCH, OR PERHAPS JUST EXTENSION, TO THE GUSTY WINDS
OCCURS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING AS THE
POTENT TROUGH AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD. GUIDANCE WAS CONSISTENT WITH
MINIMAL DROP OFF IN WINDS, ESPECIALLY ON THE HILLTOPS AND
RIDGES. THUS, ALL WIND HEADLINES ARE IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE QUICKLY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST BY DAYBREAK. OVERNIGHT
LOWS DROP BACK INTO THE 20S, WITH TEENS IN THE MOUNTAINS.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
A PROGRESSIVE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD
BY SATURDAY. SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A JET STREAK ALOFT. FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY BY
AFTERNOON, AND WITH STRONGER WARM ADVECTION FROM THE SOUTHWEST,
THE WARMEST SPOTS (IN THE 50S) WILL LIKELY BE THE SHENANDOAH
VALLEY AND LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS. THAT FLOW
CONTINUES TO INCREASE ALOFT SATURDAY NIGHT AS A TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY (WITH SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE WELL NORTH IN ONTARIO). THE EXPOSED PEAKS ABOVE 4000 FT
COULD APPROACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA, BUT MOST OF THE AREA WILL
BE BENEATH AN INVERSION. LOWS WILL BE MILDER IN THE 30S.
THE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH ON
SUNDAY. WITH MOST OF THE FORCING AND MOISTURE TO THE NORTH, ONLY
AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED. THERE WILL ALSO BE GUSTY
WESTERLY POST-FRONTAL WINDS WHICH MOST LIKELY FALL JUST SHY OF
ADVISORY CRITERIA IN THE MOUNTAINS. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN MILD IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S, BUT TEMPERATURES WILL
DROP INTO THE 20S SUNDAY NIGHT DUE TO THE POST FRONTAL COLD AND
DRY ADVECTION.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
A RELATIVELY BENIGN AND SEASONAL WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO SET UP
OVER THE REGION FOR THE WEEK OF CHRISTMAS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE REGION MONDAY, FOLLOWED BY A COUPLE OF FAST MOVING CLIPPERS THAT
PASS JUST NORTH OF THE AREA DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. WHILE
THESE COULD BRING SOME RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TO THE ALLEGHENIES,
CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE MOSTLY DRY ELSEWHERE. THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE A
FEW SHOWERS WILL BE TUESDAY AFTERNOON, AND MOSTLY EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE. TEMPERATURES MODERATE THROUGH THE WEEK, WITH CHILLY HIGHS IN
THE 30S TO LOW 40S MONDAY WARMING TO THE 50S WEDNESDAY AND FOR
CHRISTMAS DAY.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
CLOUDS WERE QUICKLY CLEARING AS OF MID MORNING, BUT WILL
INCREASE AGAIN (AT VFR LEVELS) MIDDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE
PRIMARY SURGE OF WESTERLY POST-FRONTAL WINDS WILL ARRIVE DURING
THE MIDDAY TO EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS, WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 KT
COMMON, PERHAPS LOCALLY HIGHER IN/NEAR ISOLATED SHOWERS WHICH
MAY PRODUCE BRIEF GRAUPEL. GUIDANCE SHOWS WINDS MAY LINGER INTO
THE EARLY EVENING AS A POTENT TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH.
WINDS DIMINISH LATE THIS EVENING BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT
OVERNIGHT. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS ON SATURDAY MORNING PICK UP
QUICKLY DURING THE AFTERNOON, BUT THEN BECOME LIGHT AGAIN
OVERNIGHT. THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME LLWS AS A 50 KT LOW LEVEL JET
MOVES ATOP THE SURFACE INVERSION. VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNDAY, ALTHOUGH A DRY COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT WINDS TO
THE WEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT POSSIBLE.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE REGION. A FAST MOVING CLIPPER COULD BRING
SOME SHOWERS TUESDAY AFTERNOON, THOUGH CONDITIONS LOOK TO REMAIN VFR
WITH LOW COVERAGE OF CONVECTION.
MARINE
A SURGE OF WINDS ARRIVES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, WHICH WILL
LIKELY BRING GALE-FORCE WINDS TO MOST OF THE WATERS. HIGHEST
GUSTS WILL BE IN THE CHESAPEAKE BAY NORTH OF NORTH BEACH MD, AND
OVER THE UPPER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER. GUSTY WINDS LINGER INTO
THIS EVENING BUT WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH DEPARTS AND SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES.
A COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS ON SUNDAY. AT LEAST HIGH-END SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY WITHIN NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW, WITH LOW END GALES POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SLACK
SUNDAY NIGHT BUT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR MOST
WATERS.
FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE LOCAL WATERS. LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS
MONDAY BECOME SOUTH BY TUESDAY MORNING. SOUTHERLY CHANNELING COULD
PRODUCE SCA CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE WATERS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR DCZ001.
MD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ005-006-008-
011-013-014-016>018-503>508.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ003-004-
501-502-509-510.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
MDZ509-510.
VA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VAZ025>027-
029>031-036>040-053-054-501-505-506-526-527.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VAZ028-503-
504-507-508.
WV...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WVZ050>053-
055-501>506.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
WVZ501-503-505.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ530>543.
SYNOPSIS...ADS/DHOF
NEAR TERM...ADS/DHOF
SHORT TERM...ADS/DHOF
LONG TERM...KRR
AVIATION...ADS/DHOF/KRR
MARINE...ADS/DHOF/KRR
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page