881
FXUS61 KLWX 300600
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
200 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO MAJOR SHIFTS WERE NOTED IN THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST PACKAGE,
THOUGH THE ENVIRONMENT MAY BE FAVORABLE FOR A FEW GUSTY SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) TEMPERATURES RISE TO NEAR RECORD LEVELS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT COULD BRING SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
- 2) THE FRONT STALLS NEAR OR OVER THE REGION DURING THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK BEFORE BEING OVERTAKEN BY ANOTHER FRONT LATE
IN THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
TEMPERATURES RISE TO NEAR RECORD LEVELS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT COULD BRING
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN FIRMLY ANCHORED OFFSHORE THROUGH MUCH
OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WAVERING OVER THE GREAT LAKES TO THE
NORTHEAST WILL EVENTUALLY MAKE A SOUTHEASTWARD PUSH TOWARD THE
MID-ATLANTIC ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE STALLING NEARBY OR OVERHEAD.
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ANTICIPATED
TODAY IN A BROAD WARM/MOIST ADVECTION REGIME. RESIDUAL DRY AIR
AND OTHERWISE WEAK FORCING FOR ASCENT SHOULD KEEP THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY LIGHT AND SCATTERED IN NATURE, WITH OVERNIGHT HIGH
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE AND UPSTREAM TRENDS HONING IN ON A SLIGHT
FOCUS IN THE US-50/I-66 CORRIDOR LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH
ROUGHLY MIDDAY.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE ROUGHLY 5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN
SUNDAY, LIMITED SOMEWHAT BY THE CLOUD COVER BUT OFFSET BY BREEZY
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ADVECTING IN THE WARMER AIR.
WINDS ALOFT AROUND 850 HPA INCREASE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. THIS COULD RESULT IN A FEW WIND GUSTS AROUND 45
MPH FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 3500 FEET IN THE APPALACHIANS, BUT THE
THREAT APPEARS TO MARGINAL AND LOCALIZED FOR HEADLINES RIGHT
NOW. A MORE EXPANSIVE A SOMEWHAT STRONGER LOW-LEVEL JET PIVOT
OVERHEAD TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING, BUT
THE FLOW IS A BIT VEERED/NOT UNIDIRECTIONAL THROUGH THE LOWER
ATMOSPHERE AND THE PATTERN IS ONE OF WARM ADVECTION WHICH CAN
PRECLUDE MORE EFFICIENT MIXING. THE END RESULT MAY BE THE SAME -
A FEW WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 45 MPH ABOVE 3500 FEET OVER THE
APPALACHIAN CREST.
WARMER AIR CONTINUES TO PUMP INTO THE REGION ON SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST BREEZES TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
THE REGION. HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S ARE POSSIBLE BOTH DAYS WHICH
MAY NEAR RECORD LEVELS (SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW).
SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL PROBABLY PRECLUDE MUCH IN THE WAY OF
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY DESPITE AN UPTICK IN
LOW-LEVEL THETA-E AND AVAILABLE CAPE. A POP UP SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE GENERALLY WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND
CATOCTIN MOUNTAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TUESDAY. ANY
ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD BE WEAK AND SHORT-LIVED GIVEN WEAK
FLOW AND MODEST CAPE.
A HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVES
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT
TAKES A DIVE INTO THE AREA. SHEAR INCREASES MODESTLY (AROUND 30
KTS 0-6KM) NORTH OF I-66/US-50. OF NOTE IS A REMNANT PLUME OF
ELEVATED MIXED-LAYER (EML) AIR EVIDENT IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS
ABOVE A CAP AT 700 HPA. THIS RESULTS IN STEEPENING MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES OF 7-8 C/KM. IF ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL HEATING AND
MOISTENING TAKE PLACE, AND THE CONVERGENCE ALONG EITHER THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT OR A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH ARE SUFFICIENT,
THEN THE CAP WOULD LIKELY BREAK. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ABOVE THE CAP AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES BELOW THE CAP
WOULD THEN LEND A THREAT TO GUSTY WINDS WITH INVERTED-V
PROFILES. THE SEVERE THREAT MAY BE TEMPERED BY MODEST LOW-LEVEL
DOWNSLOPING FLOW AND MOISTURE, AS WELL AS HEIGHT RISES ALOFT IN
SPITE OF A SHORTWAVE SHEARING OUT TO THE NORTH ACROSS PA.
KEY MESSAGE 2
THE FRONT STALLS NEAR OR OVER THE REGION DURING
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK BEFORE BEING OVERTAKEN BY ANOTHER
FRONT LATE IN THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
RATHER REMARKABLY LARGE SPREAD REMAINS AMONG THE LATEST GUIDANCE
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, IN
PARTICULAR WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES. THIS IS BECAUSE THE FRONT IS
LIKELY TO STALL OVERHEAD WITH A STRONG TEMPERATURE GRADIENT
ACROSS IT. TO PUT NUMBERS TO IT (USING THURSDAY'S HIGH
TEMPERATURE FORECAST AS AN EXAMPLE), THE NBM 5TH PERCENTILE/COOL
SCENARIO HAS HIGHS RANGING FROM 50 IN NORTHEAST MD TO THE LOW TO
MID 60S IN THE WV VALLEYS INTO CENTRAL VA. MEANWHILE, THE NBM
95TH PERCENTILE/WARM SCENARIO HAS HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S TO
NEAR 90 OUTSIDE THE HIGHEST TERRAIN. THIS CASUAL 40-DEGREE
SPREAD IN THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST HAS BEEN APPARENT FOR
SEVERAL DAYS, WITH INDIVIDUAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS WAVERING BACK
AND FORTH ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT THURSDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND. THE CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE BASICALLY SPLITS THE
DIFFERENCE, BUT WITH THE CAVEAT THAT LARGE ERRORS ARE LIKELY.
REPEATED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS THE FRONT WIGGLES
AROUND NEARBY. THE COVERAGE AND MAGNITUDE OF SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM STRENGTH WILL DEPEND HIGHLY ON AVAILABLE
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR, BOTH OF WHICH ARE VERY MUCH IN FLUX GIVEN
THE UNCERTAIN PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT AND BACKGROUND TEMPERATURE
AND WIND FIELDS.
BY LATE IN THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, A STRONGER UPPER TROUGH AND
COLD FRONT LIKELY APPROACH FROM THE MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY. A MORE
ORGANIZED AND COHESIVE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AS A RESULT PRIOR TO
THE PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING, THOUGH A FEW BRIEF SHOWERS CAN'T BE RULED OUT THROUGH
THIS EVENING IN PARTICULAR. LLWS IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AS LLJS
PIVOT OVERHEAD, THOUGH MINIMAL DIRECTIONAL CHANGE AND ELEVATED
SURFACE WINDS MAY LIMIT THIS THREAT OVERALL. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
GUSTS OF 15-20 KTS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH 20-25 KTS LIKELY
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS EACH DAY.
A COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY BRINGING HIGHER
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THESE MAY BE
ACCOMPANIED BY AT LEAST BRIEF RESTRICTIONS. LOWER CIGS ARE
FEASIBLY POSSIBLE IN ONSHORE FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT LATER
IN THE WEEK (ALONG WITH REPEATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES), THOUGH THE FORECAST IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN GIVEN UNKNOWNS
IN EXACTLY WHERE THE FRONT STALLS.
MARINE
GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS GIVEN HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFFSHORE AND A COLD FRONT
SLOWLY APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES. SCAS MAY NEED TO BE
EXTENDED INTO/THROUGH TONIGHT FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS, THOUGH
UNCERTAINTY IN EXTENT OF MIXING AND ANY POTENTIAL LULLS TONIGHT
KEEPS CONFIDENCE A BIT LOWER. ADDITIONAL SCAS ARE PROBABLE
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AHEAD OF THE FRONT, AND ARE QUITE
POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT OUT OF THE EAST/SOUTHEAST.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES APPEAR HIGHEST WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AT THE MOMENT WHEN THE COLD FRONT DROPS
IN, BUT ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS
THE FRONT REMAINS STALLED NEARBY OR OVERHEAD. UNCERTAINTY IN THE
EXTENT OF PRECIPITATION AS WELL AS WIND DIRECTION IS HIGH LATE
THIS WEEK.
CLIMATE
TEMPERATURES OF 15 TO 25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ARE EXPECTED
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. BELOW IS A LIST OF RECORD DAILY HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR OUR REGIONAL CLIMATE SITES.
=========================================================
RECORD DAILY HIGHS AND WARM LOWS FOR MARCH 31
SITE HIGH/YEAR(S) SET WARM LOW/YEAR(S) SET
DCA 85/2025, 1981, 1979 63/1998
BWI 86/2025, 1998 68/1998
IAD 85/1998 62/1998
DMH 93/1998 73/1998
NAK 83/1979, 1945 61/1977
HGR 85/1998 57/1998
MRB 86/1998 62/1998
CHO 88/1986 67/1910
RECORD DAILY HIGHS AND WARM LOWS FOR APRIL 1
SITE HIGH/YEAR(S) SET WARM LOW/YEAR(S) SET
DCA 88/1978 64/2016
BWI 88/1978 62/2016
IAD 85/1978 64/2016
DMH 90/1978 69/1998
NAK 87/1978 60/1998
HGR 84/1978 60/1912
MRB 85/1943 58/2016
CHO 88/1978 68/1998
=========================================================
..PERIOD OF RECORD (POR) CONTEXT
WASHINGTON DC AREA (DCA)
WEATHER RECORDS FOR THE WASHINGTON DC AREA HAVE BEEN RECORDED
AT WHAT IS NOW RONALD REAGAN WASHINGTON NATIONAL AIRPORT (KDCA)
SINCE 1941. THE OFFICIAL WEATHER RECORD CONSISTS OF THAT DATA
BACK TO 1945, AND OBSERVATIONS TAKEN IN DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON FROM
1871 TO 1944. TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR THE WASHINGTON DC AREA
EXTEND BACK TO JANUARY 1872.
BALTIMORE MD AREA (BWI)
WEATHER RECORDS FOR THE BALTIMORE MD AREA HAVE BEEN RECORDED AT
WHAT IS NOW BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON INTERNATIONAL THURGOOD
MARSHALL AIRPORT (KBWI) SINCE 1950. THE OFFICIAL WEATHER RECORD
CONSISTS OF THAT DATA BACK TO 1950, AND OBSERVATIONS TAKEN IN
DOWNTOWN BALTIMORE FROM 1871 THROUGH 1949. TEMPERATURE RECORDS
FOR THE BALTIMORE MD AREA EXTEND BACK TO JULY 1872.
STERLING-DULLES AIRPORT VA AREA (IAD)
WEATHER RECORDS FOR THE STERLING-DULLES AIRPORT VA AREA HAVE
BEEN RECORDED AT WHAT IS NOW WASHINGTON DULLES INTERNATIONAL
AIRPORT (KIAD) SINCE 1960. THE OFFICIAL RECORD CONSISTS SOLELY
OF DATA RECORDED AT THE AIRPORT.
BALTIMORE DOWNTOWN MD AREA (DMH)
WEATHER RECORDS FOR THE BALTIMORE DOWNTOWN MD AREA HAVE BEEN
RECORDED AT WHAT IS NOW THE MARYLAND SCIENCE CENTER (KDMH)
SINCE 1999. THE OFFICIAL WEATHER RECORD CONSISTS OF THAT DATA
BACK TO 1999, AND OBSERVATIONS TAKEN IN THE CITY OF BALTIMORE
FROM JULY 1950 THROUGH 1998. DATA IS MISSING FROM JUNE 3 OF 2020
THROUGH AUGUST 14 OF 2022 WHEN THE OBSERVING SYSTEM HAD TO BE
REMOVED DUE TO A LARGE CONSTRUCTION PROJECT.
ANNAPOLIS MD AREA (NAK)
WEATHER RECORDS FOR THE ANNAPOLIS MD AREA HAVE BEEN RECORDED AT
WHAT IS NOW THE ANNAPOLIS U.S. NAVAL ACADEMY (KNAK) SINCE
OCTOBER 11 OF 2001. THE OFFICIAL WEATHER RECORD CONSISTS OF THAT
DATA BACK TO 2001, AND OBSERVATIONS THAT WERE TAKEN BETWEEN THE
ANNAPOLIS U.S. NAVAL ACADEMY AND THE ANNAPOLIS POLICE BARRACKS
FROM JULY OF 1894 THROUGH OCTOBER 10 OF 2001.
HAGERSTOWN MD AREA (HGR).
WEATHER RECORDS FOR THE HAGERSTOWN MD AREA HAVE BEEN RECORDED AT
WHAT IS NOW HAGERSTOWN REGIONAL AIRPORT (KHGR) SINCE OCTOBER OF
1998. THE OFFICIAL WEATHER RECORD CONSISTS OF THAT DATA BACK TO
OCTOBER OF 1998, AND OBSERVATIONS TAKEN ONE MILE EAST OF
HAGERSTOWN FROM 1899 THROUGH SEPTEMBER OF 1998.
MARTINSBURG WV AREA (MRB)
WEATHER RECORDS FOR THE MARTINSBURG WV AREA HAVE BEEN RECORDED
AT WHAT IS NOW EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA REGIONAL AIRPORT/SHEPHERD
FIELD (KMRB) SINCE 1938. THE OFFICIAL WEATHER RECORD CONSISTS OF
THAT DATA BACK TO 1944, AND OBSERVATIONS TAKEN IN DOWNTOWN
MARTINSBURG FROM 1891 THROUGH 1943.
CHARLOTTESVILLE VA AREA (CHO)
WEATHER RECORDS FOR THE CHARLOTTESVILLE VA AREA HAVE BEEN
RECORDED AT WHAT IS NOW CHARLOTTESVILLE-ALBEMARLE AIRPORT (KCHO)
SINCE APRIL 20 OF 1961. THE OFFICIAL WEATHER RECORD CONSISTS OF
THAT DATA BACK TO APRIL 20 OF 1961, AND OBSERVATIONS TAKEN TWO
MILES WEST OF DOWNTOWN CHARLOTTESVILLE FROM 1983 THROUGH APRIL
19 OF 1961.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
ANZ530>543.
DISCUSSION...ADS/DHOF/EST
AVIATION...ADS/DHOF/EST
MARINE...ADS/DHOF/EST
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