813
FXUS61 KLWX 090118
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
918 PM EDT THU MAY 8 2025
SYNOPSIS
COLD FRONT SLOWLY CROSSES THE MID-ATLANTIC LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE WEEKEND AND
MONDAY. THEN LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE UP FROM THE DEEP
SOUTH FOR MID WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION FOCUSED IN
TWO AREAS. ONE ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH FROM
PENNSYLVANIA ACROSS THE MASON-DIXON BACK TOWARDS THE EASTERN
PANHANDLE OF WEST VIRGINIA. THE OTHER AREA IS ACROSS CENTRAL
VIRGINIA INTO SOUTHERN MARYLAND. THESE AREAS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE TO HAVE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS. SOME OF THESE AREA SLOW MOVING AND COULD PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. THE METRO AREAS BACK TOWARDS HARRISONBURG
WILL LIKELY BE DRY UNTIL THE FRONT DROPS SOUTH BY ABOUT 04Z OR
SO. THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT, SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS. NOT MUCH INSTABILITY, SO RAIN RATES WILL BE
GENERALLY LESS THAN ONE INCH PER HOUR, HOWEVER LONG DURATION
ASPECT COULD RESULT IN SOME SMALL STREAM FLOODING AS THE RAIN
CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AS THE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST.
AREA OF GREATEST CONCERN FOR ISOLATED FLOODING WITH FFG
GENERALLY BELOW 2" FOR 6 HOURS IN CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST MD.
A MID-LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DROP SOUTHWARD INTO THE
REGION AND FORM A COASTAL LOW AROUND MID- ATLANTIC COAST EARLY
FRIDAY. THIS COASTAL LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE VICINITY OF NEW YORK
CITY BY FRIDAY EVENING. SHOWERS AND STORMS PERSIST INTO FRIDAY
BEFORE PULLING AWAY. THAT COULD SLOW IF THE COASTAL LOW IS
SLOWER TO MOVE OUT THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
DRY WEATHER AND HIGH PRESSURE RETURN LATER FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THE DAY SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN CAUSE OUR NORTHWEST
TO NORTHERLY WINDS TO INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
BUT DIMINISH OVERNIGHT SATURDAY.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OFF DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVERHEAD BEFORE SHIFTING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON MONDAY.
FURTHER SOUTH, A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTHWARD FROM THE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE CAROLINA'S. AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND
ASSOCIATED BOUNDARIES APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA, PRECIPITATION
CHANCES BEGIN INCREASING SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST MONDAY AFTERNOON.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC MIDWEEK.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO MODERATE UNDER HIGH PRESSURE WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THOSE AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS WILL STAY IN THE 60S. AS CLOUD COVER INCREASES, OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM EACH NIGHT. SUNDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL
BE IN THE 40S TO 50S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS WARMING TO THE 50S AND 60S
MIDWEEK. THE WARMEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE WEDNESDAY,
AS HIGH TEMPERATURES RISE INTO 70S TO LOW 80S.
AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR WILL BECOME IFR CIGS TONIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS AROUND 15-20KTS FRI
AFTERNOON THROUGH SAT MORNING.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN
CONTROL. AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE MONDAY,
PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE
AFTERNOON. SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE DURING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT.
MARINE
LIGHT WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS COASTAL
LOW PRESSURE PULLS AWAY FROM OUR AREA.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE. WINDS SHIFT FROM NORTHERLY ON MONDAY
TO SOUTHEASTERLY ON TUESDAY.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...CS
NEAR TERM...AVS/KLW/CPB
SHORT TERM...CS/KLW
LONG TERM...AVS
AVIATION...AVS/KLW/CPB
MARINE...AVS/KLW/CPB
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