837  
FXUS61 KLWX 140804  
AFDLWX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC  
404 AM EDT MON OCT 14 2019  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TOWARD NEW  
ENGLAND THROUGH TUESDAY WHILE A SECONDARY COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM  
THE GREAT LAKES AND WEAKENS. A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE  
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY, THEN RE-DEVELOP OVER SOUTHEASTERN  
VIRGINIA AND MOVE UP THE COAST TOWARD NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT  
INTO THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
 
 
MAIN CONCERN EARLY THIS MORNING IS PATCHY DENSE FOG. SFC OBS AND  
NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS RGB SHOW DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS  
PARTS OF THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH VSBYS AS LOW AS QUARTER OF  
AN MILE IN A FEW SPOTS. RIGHT NOW, IT IS PATCHY AND NOT  
WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO ISSUE AN ADVISORY, BUT WILL CONTINUE TO  
MONITOR. OTHERWISE, MOSTLY CLEAR TODAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN  
THE MIDDLE 70S. CLEAR AND COOL TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS  
IN.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
 
 
TRANQUIL ON TUE AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES. HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE  
TUE NIGHT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS DEVELOPING LATE.  
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED SLOWER WITH ONSET OF PRECIP TUE NIGHT  
THIS CYCLE AND HAVE CONFINED POPS MAINLY AFTER 06Z WED. GLOBAL  
MODELS DURING THE PAST FEW DAYS HAVE BEEN TRENDING STRONGER WITH  
A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE CENTER FCST TO MOVE ACROSS THE  
AREA WED AFTERNOON SHOWING IT TO BE THE MORE DOMINANT WEATHER  
SYSTEM. AS A RESULT, EXPECT SOME BENEFICIAL RAINS LATE TUE NIGHT  
THROUGH WED AFTERNOON WITH QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF RAIN. EPS  
95TH PERCENTILE SHOWS UP TO 1.5 INCHES OF RAIN ALONG THE I-95  
CORRIDOR. EXPECT A CONVECTIVE LINE TO RACE THROUGH THE AREA WED  
AFTERNOON WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE AND GUSTY NW BEHIND IT. UPSLOPE  
RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE APPALACHIANS INTO THU  
MORNING IN NW FLOW.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
 
 
IN THE WAKE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT, A WINDY DAY IS  
EXPECTED ON THURSDAY. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10-15 MPH, WITH GUSTS UP TO  
25 MPH ARE EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY IN THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.  
ADDITIONALLY, THE FRONT WILL BE BRINGING IN THE COOLEST AIR MASS OF  
THE SEASON THUS FAR, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. OTHER  
THAN SOME UPSLOPE SHOWERS ALONG/WEST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT THURSDAY  
MORNING, THINKING WE STAY DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY. OVERNIGHT LOWS ON  
THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S, WITH SOME EVEN SOME  
TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.  
 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY, RESULTING IN SUNNY  
SKIES AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 60S. CLEAR  
ON FRIDAY NIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS INTO THE LOW 40S. HIGH PRESSURE  
WILL THEN SHIFT OFFSHORE BY SATURDAY, WARMING TEMPERATURES INTO THE  
MID TO UPPER 60S. AGAIN, EXPECTING A DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY DAY.  
OVERNIGHT LOWS ON SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE WARMER, INTO THE UPPER 40S  
TO LOW 50S, THANKS TO THE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW. SUNDAY AGAIN LOOKS  
DRY AT THIS TIME, WITH HIGH PRESSURE SETTLED OFFSHORE. TEMPERATURES  
WILL BE EVEN A LITTLE WARMER, WITH HIGHS INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
PATCHY DENSE FOG ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. WILL CONTINUE  
TO MONITOR. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TUE EVENING WITH  
POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS LATE TUE NIGHT AND WED IN RAIN AS COLD  
FRONT CROSSES THE AREA. GUSTY NW WINDS BEHIND FROPA LATE WED  
INTO WED NIGHT.  
 
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEHIND A COLD FRONTAL  
PASSAGE, WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION. MAIN CONCERN  
WILL BE GUSTY WEST-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS OR SO.  
 
LESS WINDY ON FRIDAY, WITH CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE WED AFTERNOON AND SMWS MAY BE REQUIRED  
WITH CONVECTIVE LINE ALONG COLD FRONT. SOLID SCA CONDITIONS  
EXPECTED WED NIGHT IN POST-FRONTAL NW FLOW REGIME.  
 
IN THE WAKE OF A PASSING COLD FRONT, SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE  
LIKELY GOING TO BE NEEDED ALL DAY THURSDAY THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY  
ON FRIDAY. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EVEN A POSSIBILITY EARLY IN THE DAY  
ON THURSDAY. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF FRIDAY AFTERNOON.  
 

 
   
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
 
 
CF.Y REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ANNAPOLIS AS IT LOOKS LIKE THERE IS  
STILL A LOW CHANCE OF REACHING MINOR FLOODING WITH NEXT HIGH  
TIDE, ALTHOUGH MY FORECAST KEEPS IT JUST BELOW. WILL MONITOR  
AND CANCEL EARLY IF IT DOESN'T LOOK LIKE IT WON'T REACH THE  
THRESHOLD.  
 

 
   
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
DC...NONE.  
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ014.  
VA...NONE.  
WV...NONE.  
MARINE...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...LFR  
NEAR TERM...LFR  
SHORT TERM...LFR  
LONG TERM...CJL  
AVIATION...LFR/CJL  
MARINE...LFR/CJL  
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...LFR  
 
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