515
FXUS61 KLWX 221948
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
248 PM EST SUN FEB 22 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
CANCELLED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN
ALLEGANY COUNTY AND EASTERN MINERAL AND GRANT COUNTIES DUE TO
SNOWFALL NOT ACCUMULATING AS MUCH AS EXPECTED BEFOREHAND.
CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY, SHIP BUOYS, AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
NEAR THE EAST COAST ARE SHOWING THAT THE MAIN SURFACE LOW IS
ABOUT 150 MILES ESE OF OCEAN CITY, MD AND 150 MILES ENE OF
VIRGINIA BEACH, VA. IT IS ABOUT 50 MILES FURTHER TO THE EAST-
NORTHEAST AND ABOUT 6 HOURS FASTER THAN MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTED
EARLIER. THEREFORE, SNOW AMOUNTS MAY BE TRENDING TO LESSER
AMOUNTS BUT ONLY A LITTLE THROUGH TONIGHT AS WE STILL HAVE THE
NORLUN TROUGH ALONG WITH THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY TO CONTEND WITH
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
KEY MESSAGES
-1) WINTER STORM WARNINGS AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES REMAIN
IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT, BLUE RIDGE, AND
MOST OF MARYLAND, AS WELL AS NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF
VIRGINIA AND WEST VIRGINIA THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. LOCALLY
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL RESULT
IN TRAVEL DISRUPTIONS LATER THIS EVENING AND INTO THE MONDAY
MORNING COMMUTE.
-2) MULTIPLE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE BRING PRECIPITATION CHANCES
TUESDAY AND THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1... WINTER STORM WARNINGS AND WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE ALLEGHENY
FRONT, BLUE RIDGE, AND MOST OF MARYLAND, AS WELL AS NORTHERN AND
EASTERN PORTIONS OF VIRGINIA AND WEST VIRGINIA THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY. LOCALLY SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS AND GUSTY
WINDS WILL RESULT IN TRAVEL DISRUPTIONS LATER THIS EVENING AND
INTO THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE.
AS OF 230PM, SNOW AMOUNTS HAVE AVERAGED 0.5 TO 2 INCHES IN THE
ALLEGHENIES AND TRACE TO AN INCH IN PARTS OF THE SHENANDOAH
VALLEY AND ALONG I-66. ELSEWHERE, LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE
RAIN IS OCCURRING FROM THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY AND EAST TO THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY. RAIN AMOUNTS WILL BE GENERALLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS
OF AN INCH TO A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH. AS WE GET INTO LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT, RAIN WILL MIX WITH AND
QUICKLY TRANSITION OVER THE SNOW. SNOW WILL BECOME MODERATE TO
HEAVY, ESPECIALLY FROM CENTRAL MD, THE EASTERN WV PANHANDLE, AND
SOUTH INTO THE VIRGINIA PIEDMONT AS THE NORLUN TROUGH SETS UP IN
PORTIONS OF THIS AREA AND THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY SUPPORT DROPS
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE AREA FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE ON THE ORDER OF 1 TO 4 INCHES IN MANY
PLACES WITH 4 TO 10 INCHES IN THE FARTHER NORTHERN AND EASTERN
ZONES THROUGH EARLY MONDAY WITH RESPECT TO THE DEEPENING COASTAL
STORM. SNOW SHOULD WIND DOWN BY MID-MORNING MONDAY. GALE
CONDITIONS OVER THE WATERS ONCE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
SUBSIDE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S
THROUGH TONIGHT WITH A SLIGHT FALL INTO THE LOWER 30S AND NEAR
FREEZING. FOR MORE DETAILS ON THE STORM, INCLUDING EXACT
PLACEMENT OF WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES AND WINTER STORM
WARNINGS, SEE WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LWX/WINTER.
KEY MESSAGE 2..MULTIPLE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE BRING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES TUESDAY AND THURSDAY.
AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PIVOTS OVER THE EAST COAST, TWO LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS ARE FORECAST TO IMPACT THE REGION NEXT WEEK. THE
FIRST BEING A FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM TRACKING TO THE NORTH
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. WHILE THE MAJORITY OF
PRECIPITATION WILL BE CONFINED NORTH OF THE AREA, SNOW AND A
RAIN/SNOW MIX ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA.
CONDITIONS DRY OUT BRIEFLY ON WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. AS THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA, RAIN IS LIKELY
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON THURSDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE REGION WITH NO WINTRY
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. RAINFALL WILL BE BENEFICIAL AS DROUGHT
REMAINS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN THIS WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES
ACROSS THE REGION.
AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
LIFR AND IFR CEILINGS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH A MIX OF RAIN AND
SNOW TRANSITIONING OVER TO ALL SNOW. VISIBILITY WILL BE MVFR FOR
THE MOST PART. BEYOND 00Z, SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BECOME AN
ISSUE ESPECIALLY AT MRB, IAD, BWI, MTN, AND PERHAPS DCA AS THE
COASTAL LOW SURGES NORTHEAST AND THE INVERTED TROUGH SWINGS
OVERHEAD. THE HEAVIEST SNOW LOOKS TO OCCUR BETWEEN 02-07Z WHERE
1-2"/HR RATES ARE POSSIBLE. SNOW WILL TAPER OFF MONDAY,
ALTHOUGH IT IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN HOW QUICKLY IT MOVES OUT OF
THE METRO TERMINALS. WINDS WILL ALSO PICK UP OUT OF THE NORTH TO
NORTHWEST TONIGHT, AND REMAIN GUSTY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST ON
MONDAY. GUSTS TO AROUND 30-35 KNOTS APPEAR LIKELY WITHIN
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW DURING THE DAY MONDAY AS VFR CONDITIONS
RETURN. WINDS WILL DECREASE TUESDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS
CONTINUING.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WEDNESDAY MORNING SHIFT TO WESTERLY IN THE EVENING
BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. WINDS INCREASE
THURSDAY MORNING, SHIFTING TO SOUTHERLY. WINDS GUST 15 TO 25 KNOTS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE DECREASING SLIGHTLY AND GUSTING 15 TO 20
KNOTS ON THURSDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY WITH
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES BRINGING SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY.
MARINE
SCA LEVELS THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON. GALE WARNINGS REMAIN
IN EFFECT SOUTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE AND ACROSS THE LOWER TIDAL
POTOMAC TONIGHT WITHIN NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AS LOW
PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OFFSHORE. GALE WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT
FOR ALL WATERS WITHIN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ON MONDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS OFF TO OUR NORTH AND EAST. SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY
LINGER WITHIN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH TUESDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS WINDS
GUST UP TO 25 KNOTS EACH AFTERNOON. SOUTHWEST WINDS WEDNESDAY
MORNING SHIFT TO WESTERLY IN THE EVENING BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. WINDS INCREASE THURSDAY MORNING, SHIFTING TO
SOUTHERLY.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST, NORTHWESTERLY GALES WILL
CAUSE A SHARP DROP IN WATER LEVELS (BLOWOUT DURING LOW TIDE) MONDAY.
SOME LOCATIONS COULD APPROACH LOW WATER THRESHOLDS, ALTHOUGH THE
LATEST FORECAST IS NOT QUITE THAT LOW.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR DCZ001.
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR MDZ003>006-008-
011-014-017-018-503-505>508.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EST MONDAY FOR MDZ008.
GALE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR MDZ008.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR MDZ013-016-
504.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR MDZ501.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST MONDAY NIGHT FOR
MDZ509-510.
VA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR VAZ031-501-505-
506.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR VAZ040-051-
053>057-502-526-527.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST MONDAY NIGHT FOR
VAZ503.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR VAZ027>030.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
VAZ504.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR VAZ507-508.
WV...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR WVZ051>053.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR WVZ503.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST MONDAY NIGHT FOR
WVZ501-505.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR WVZ050-055.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
WVZ506.
MARINE...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ530.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ530-531-535-
536-538-539.
GALE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ530-531-535-
536-538-539.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
ANZ532>534-537-540-541-543.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ532>534-537-540>543.
DISCUSSION...ADS/KLW/KJP/EST
AVIATION...KLW/KJP/EST
MARINE...KLW/KJP/EST
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