486
FXUS61 KLWX 140727
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
227 AM EST FRI NOV 14 2025
SYNOPSIS
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO DECREASING WINDS THROUGH
TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS, WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS TO THE AREA SATURDAY. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
LEADING TO ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY WINDS. A SECONDARY FRONT WILL
FOLLOW SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY RETURNS MONDAY.
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY INTO THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
FOLLOWING A SUNNY BUT SEASONABLY COLD START, CLOUDS WILL READILY
INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST LATER TODAY AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT AS
A SMALL SHORTWAVE PASSES OVERHEAD. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING CLOSER
TO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST WILL RESULT IN LIGHTER WIND
THEN RECENT DAYS, THOUGH A FEW GUSTS OF 15-20 MPH ARE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS
SHOULD PREVENT MOST IF NOT ALL PRECIP THROUGH TONIGHT, THOUGH A
COUPLE OF SPRINKLES CAN'T BE RULED OUT ESPECIALLY FURTHER NORTH
AND WEST/OVER THE APPALACHIANS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE RATHER SEASONABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S, AND LOWS IN THE 30S AND 40S.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER NORTHEASTERN BRITISH COLUMBIA
WILL EJECT SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES AND THE
GREAT LAKES THIS WEEKEND, EVENTUALLY MERGING WITH A CUTOFF LOW
OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SATURDAY BEFORE TRACKING
ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON
SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON, FOLLOWED BY A STRONG
COLD FRONT LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
SUNDAY NIGHT.
IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER, SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE
WITH THE WARM FRONT OVER THE APPALACHIANS AND NORTHERN MARYLAND
DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY, WITH THE HIGHEST RELATIVE PRECIP
POTENTIAL DURING THE AFTERNOON. BY SATURDAY EVENING, THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT MAY SPARK AN ORGANIZED LOW-TOPPED LINE OF
CONVECTION GIVEN STRONG FORCING AND LOW-LEVEL WINDS, DESPITE
MEAGER CAPE. ANY SUCH LINE WOULD CROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC IN SOME
FORM JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR BOUNDARY LAYER BASED CONVECTION WOULD SEEM TO BE OVER
WESTERN MARYLAND WHERE SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WILL BE
RELATIVELY HIGHER (THOUGH STILL MEAGER). FURTHER EAST, A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STRONGER CELLS THAT
EVOLVE, THOUGH INSTABILITY SHOULD BE ROOTED ABOVE THE SURFACE.
ADDITIONALLY, DOWNSLOPING LOW-LEVEL WINDS COULD WEAKEN THE
LINE'S ORGANIZATION. EITHER WAY, AT LEAST A FEW SHOWERS ALONG
WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS COULD BE ON THE DOCKET OVERNIGHT.
STRONG WINDS BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT AND AHEAD OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE MIDWEST WILL RESULT IN A GUSTY DAY
ON SUNDAY. DESPITE THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT THE NIGHT
BEFORE, DOWNSLOPING WINDS GUSTING 30 TO 40 MPH WILL LIKELY BOOST
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 50S AND 60S ON SUNDAY EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS. LIGHTER BREEZES LINGER INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS
DROPPING INTO THE 30S.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
A DEEP, VERTICALLY STACKED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CIRCULATE OFF
TO OUR NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY, WITH THE CENTER OF THE
SYSTEM LOCATED NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE ST. LAWRENCE RIVER. POST-
FRONTAL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ADVECT COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE
AREA. SUNNY SKIES ARE FORECAST FOR ALL, AND TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE 50S AT LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 40S IN THE
MOUNTAINS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO AROUND 30 MPH, MAKING IT
FEEL A BIT CHILLIER.
A FAST MOVING, LOW AMPLITUDE DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN ZONAL FLOW WILL
RAPIDLY APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY. WHILE THERE ARE SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONGST MODELS, NEARLY ALL SHOW AN UPTICK IN
CLOUD COVER, AND MOST ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS PRODUCE SOME LIGHT
PRECIP AT SOME POINT TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHTER ON TUESDAY, BUT THE INCREASING CLOUDS AND CHANCE FOR
RAIN WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S
AND LOWER 50S.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO OUR NORTHWEST OVER THE GREAT LAKES ON
WEDNESDAY. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS A RESULT, WITH A MIX OF
SUN AND CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS, WITH
HIGHS IN THE 50S FOR MOST (40S MOUNTAINS).
GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE WITH RESPECT TO THE FINER DETAILS BY
THURSDAY, BUT MOST SOLUTIONS SHOW THE LONGWAVE PATTERN BEGINNING TO
AMPLIFY ACROSS THE CONUS, WITH DEEP TROUGHING BECOMING ESTABLISHED
ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY. MOST SOLUTIONS ALSO SHOW AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING JUST DOWNSTREAM OF THAT TROUGH. SOME
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS PRODUCE A BIT OF WARM ADVECTION DRIVEN
PRECIPITATION DOWNSTREAM OF THAT TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
OVER OUR FORECAST AREA, BUT SPREAD IS LARGE THIS FAR OUT.
REGARDLESS, ODDS SEEM TO FAVOR INCREASING CLOUD COVER. SPREAD WITH
RESPECT TO HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY IS ALSO LARGE, AND WILL
ULTIMATELY BE DEPENDENT ON HOW THE SYSTEM DEVELOPS UPSTREAM.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT, THOUGH
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATER TODAY. THERE IS AN
OUTSIDE CHANCE OF LOW-END VFR OR HIGH-END MVFR CIGS (STRATOCU)
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT. SOME
SPOTTY LLWS CAN'T BE RULED OUT AS WELL DURING THIS TIME. SURFACE
WINDS WILL BE WESTERLY TODAY AT ABOUT 6-10 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS OF 15-18 KTS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS SHIFT TO
SOUTHERLY TONIGHT AT VERY LIGHT SPEEDS.
THE WARM FRONT SHOULD LIFT AWAY FROM THE REGION BY LATER
SATURDAY MORNING WITH A SPOTTY SHOWER POSSIBLE. A FEW
SHOWERS/SOME LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION COULD BRING BRIEF
RESTRICTIONS AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES SATURDAY NIGHT. SOUTH WINDS
SATURDAY COULD GUST 15-20 KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON, BEFORE
SHIFTING TO WEST/NORTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT. WINDS INCREASE IN THE
WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT SUNDAY WITH GUSTS OF 25-35 KTS LIKELY.
WINDS DIMINISH A BIT BUT A FEW OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 15-20 KTS
REMAIN POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT.
VFR CONDITIONS AND NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY. SUB-
VFR CONDITIONS AND RAIN MAY BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES ON TUESDAY, ALONG
WITH LIGHT WINDS.
MARINE
GENERALLY LIGHTER WESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY, THOUGH
DEEPER MIXING AND A MARGINAL WIND FIELD COULD RESULT IN SPORADIC
15-20 KNOT GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS. A WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE WATERS SATURDAY, AND WINDS WILL SHIFT
TO THE SOUTH BY THEN. CHANNELING LIKELY PUSHES GUST INTO THE
20-25 KNOT RANGE BY SATURDAY EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT, THEN WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST AND GUST UP
TO 30 KNOTS THROUGH SUNDAY. BRIEF/SPORADIC GALE CONDITIONS CAN'T
BE RULED OUT BOTH WITH THE IMMEDIATE FRONTAL PASSAGE OVERNIGHT
SATURDAY NIGHT, THEN AGAIN DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT. SOMEWHAT LIGHTER WINDS ARE FORECAST SUNDAY NIGHT,
THOUGH SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY PERSIST FOR MOST OF THE WATERS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY WITHIN NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ON MONDAY. SUB-SCA LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD CLOSER TODAY WHICH WILL LEAD TO LIGHTER
WINDS. HOWEVER, DAYTIME RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL DROP INTO THE 25
TO 35 PERCENT RANGE AGAIN. THE MOUNTAINS CAN EXPECT SLIGHTLY
HIGHER VALUES IN THE 35 TO 50 PERCENT RANGE. GOOD OVERNIGHT
RECOVERIES ARE EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND. AFTER A BRIEF REPRIEVE
IN LOWER HUMIDITY LEVELS WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WARM FRONT ON
SATURDAY, THE DRY GUSTY WINDS ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY CARRY RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES TO AROUND 20 TO 35 PERCENT.
WHILE RAIN CHANCES LOOM OVER THE WEEKEND, THE CHANCES FOR A WETTING
RAIN ARE QUITE LOW DURING THE PERIOD. THE CONTINUED DRY AND BREEZY
WINDS MAY LEAD TO ADDITIONAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...DHOF
NEAR TERM...DHOF
SHORT TERM...DHOF
LONG TERM...KJP
AVIATION...DHOF/KJP
MARINE...DHOF/KJP
FIRE WEATHER...DHOF/CJL/EST
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