684
FXUS61 KLWX 080541
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
141 AM EDT THU OCT 8 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NOTHING.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) QUIESCENT WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
- 2) REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM ISAIAS ARRIVE LATE THIS
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...QUIESCENT WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK.
A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS MORNING. CANNOT RULE OUT
A ROGUE SHOWER IN THE ALLEGHENIES, BUT THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IS
EXPECTED TO LARGELY BE MOISTURE STARVED. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
THE W AND NW AT 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 MPH,
PERHAPS OCCASIONAL/PEAK GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH NEAR HIGHER TERRAIN.
DESPITE THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT, DOWNSLOPING WINDS LIKELY
PUSHING TEMPS WELL INTO THE 70S TO NEAR 80 FOR MOST. LOWERED TDS
GIVEN THE DOWNSLOPING SETUP NBM WAS NOT CATCHING AT ALL.
SEASONABLE (ALBEIT SLIGHTLY COOLER) TEMPS AND DRY CONDITIONS
WILL THEN PERSIST UNDER HIGH PRESSURE FRI THROUGH FRI
NIGHT. LOWERED TDS IN AFT GIVEN RECENT NBM ISSUES AND FAVORABLE
SETUP FOR LOWER TDS.
HIGH PRESSURE RETREATS OFF TO THE NE SAT WITH CLOUDCOVER FROM
THE REMNANTS OF ISAIAS MOVING IN AND THICKENING THROUGH THE DAY.
ANY PRECIP LIKELY HOLDS OFF UNTIL SAT NIGHT OR SUN MORNING.
KEY MESSAGE 2...REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM ISAIAS ARRIVE LATE THIS
WEEKEND.
TROPICAL STORM ISAIAS CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE TO
MONITOR OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH REMNANTS EXPECTED TO IMPACT
THE FORECAST AREA LATER THIS WEEKEND. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
HAS TS ISAIAS TRACKING A BIT SLOWER AND FURTHER EAST THAN PREVIOUS
FORECASTS, WITH REMNANT CIRCULATION OVER CENTRAL KENTUCKY EARLY
SUN AFTERNOON. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH SAT, WITH PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH REMNANTS OF
ISAIAS REACHING THE FORECAST AREA ON SUN. THE MOST LIKELY
IMPACT TO THE FORECAST AREA CONTINUES TO BE RAIN ALTHOUGH SEVERE
WEATHER CANNOT BE RULED OUT ON SUNDAY. MOST LIKELY RAINFALL IS
AN INCH OR TWO, BUT STILL HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. THIS MANY DAYS OUT,
THE TRACK, TIMING, AND IMPACTS OF TROPICAL STORM ISAIAS REMAIN
UNCERTAIN SO BE SURE TO MONITOR HURRICANES.GOV FOR THE LATEST
FORECAST.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
WINDS SHIFT BEHIND DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE, P6SM SKC THROUGH 21Z FRI. THEN, INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS FRI NIGHT.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SAT AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
DOMINANT OVER THE REGION, THOUGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND
THICKEN THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE S TO SE ON
SAT AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS.
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON SUN AS REMNANTS ASSOCIATED
WITH TROPICAL STORM ISAIAS IMPACT THE TERMINALS. REDUCTIONS IN
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE DURING RAINFALL WITH
SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING AROUND 20 KNOTS. ON MON, VFR CONDITIONS
RETURN WITH NORTHWEST WINDS REMAINING LIGHT.
MARINE
SCA IS IN EFFECT THROUGH ABOUT SUNRISE FOR THE MAIN CHANNEL OF
THE CHESAPEAKE BAY UP TO POOLES ISLAND, THE TIDAL CHOPTANK AND
TANGIER SOUND, AND THE LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER AS S TO
SW WINDS GUST TO AROUND 20 KTS. WINDS TODAY SHIFT TO THE W AND
NW WITH SCA GUSTS EXPECTED OVER THE UPPER TIDAL POTOMAC AND
UPPER CHESAPEAKE BAY/BALTIMORE HARBOR. WINDS DROP BELOW SCA BY
LATE THU AFTERNOON THROUGH FRI.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA ON SAT AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS DOMINANT OVER THE REGION. HOWEVER, BY SAT
EVENING, WE COULD SEE A BRIEF BURST OF S'LY CHANNELING WINDS
THAT COME CLOSE TO CRITERIA. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA WINDS ARE LIKELY ON SUN WITH
WINDS GUSTING AROUND 20 KNOTS AS THE REMNANTS OF ISAIAS MOVE
THROUGH. WINDS DIMINISH ON MON, BLOWING AROUND 10 KNOTS OUT OF
THE NW.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
ACTION STAGE AT A FEW SENSITIVE SITES THIS MORNING GIVEN
ELEVATED ANOMALIES. OTHERWISE, TIDE LEVELS MAY INCREASE DURING
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND DEPENDING ON THE EXACT DIRECTION
AND STRENGTH OF THE WINDS AS THE REMNANTS OF ISAIAS APPROACH.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR MDZ008.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR ANZ530-535-538.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ531.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
ANZ532-533-537-541.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ534-
543.
DISCUSSION...AVS/CPB
AVIATION...AVS/CPB
MARINE...AVS/CPB
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