335
FXUS61 KLWX 101916
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
316 PM EDT WED JUN 10 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
A BROAD BAND OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ALIGNED FROM CARROLL COUNTY MARYLAND SOUTHWEST TO FAUQUIER
COUNTY VIRGINIA. NONE OF THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE SEVERE AT THIS
TIME, BUT THIS ACTIVITY IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OF THE
GREATEST INSTABILITY. KEEP MONITORING YOUR NOAA WEATHER RADIOS
AND CELL PHONES FOR ANY WARNINGS THIS AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE EASTERN HALF OF OUR REGION THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL BE HOT AND HUMID.
- 2) HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS RETURN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH A
DAILY THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
- 3) DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO START THIS WEEKEND, BEFORE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE EASTERN HALF OF OUR REGION THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL BE HOT AND HUMID.
A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE THAT UNFOLDED ACROSS THE INTER-
MOUNTAINS, SHENANDOAH VALLEY, AND THE VIRGINIA PIEDMONT HAS LEAD
TO QUICK DESTABILIZATION OVER THE PAST 3 TO 5 HOURS. THUS, A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION HAS SPAWNED A BROAD BAND OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND STRONG
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. THIS BAND OF CONVECTION IS ALIGNED FROM
CARROLL COUNTY MARYLAND TO FAUQUIER COUNTY VIRGINIA. THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE STAYED BELOW SEVERE CRITERIA BUT IS CLOSE. SO PLEASE STAY
TUNED TO YOUR NOAA WEATHER RADIOS AND ANY BROADCASTS OVER YOUR
CELL PHONES AND COMPUTERS. WE ARE IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SPC THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. THE MAIN
THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, DOWNPOURS, AND LIGHTNING.
HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT. CAPE IS 2500 TO 3000 J/KG ALONG AND
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TO THE METROS WITH ML CAPE OF 1500 J/KG.
IN THIS SAME AREA, WIND SHEAR IS MINIMAL WITH VALUES OF 20 KNOTS
TO AS MUCH AS 30 KNOTS. THIS CONVECTION, ALONG MOST OTHER AREAS
THAT ENCOUNTER A THUNDERSTORM, SHOULD WORK ITS WAY OUT OF THE
AREA AROUND 6PM TO 7PM FOR MOST. THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING
SHOWERS OR A STORM IN PARTS OF SOUTHERN MARYLAND UNTIL 8PM.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES, PLACES EAST OF THE CONVECTION HAVE REACHED
THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 WITH DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES REACHING THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S. THUS, THESE VALUES INDICATE HOW HOT AND
STICKY THE ATMOSPHERE HAS BECOME AND PERHAPS HOW UNCOMFORTABLE
THE AIR IS TO SOME. IT WILL STAY WARM AND HUMID TONIGHT WITH A
LINGERING SHOWER OR TWO.
KEY MESSAGE 2...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS RETURN THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WITH A DAILY THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
MID-LEVEL DRY AIR WILL BUILD IN ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE-
RIDGING ON THURSDAY. THURSDAY'S CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL SEEMS THAT
WILL BE SUPPRESSED IN COVERAGE, BUT HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS
WILL LIKELY OVERCOME ANY WEAK CAPPING AND MAY RESULT IN A THREAT
OF LOCALLY DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS.
SEVERE THREAT FRI APPEARS TO BE SIGNIFICANT GREATER AS RIDGING
BREAKS DOWN AND HEIGHT FALLS SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA SUPPORTING LARGE
SCALE ASCENT. HOTTER AND EVEN MORE HUMID CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE, POTENTIALLY SEVERE GIVEN LARGE CAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF
2000 J/KG.
KEY MESSAGE 3...DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO START THIS WEEKEND,
BEFORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURN BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA FRI EVENING WITH STORMS ENDING GIVING
A DRY LESS HUMID DAY SATURDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, ALTHOUGH THE
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY DOES NOT LOOK OVERLY STRONG.
BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LKS AND EAST OF THE ROCKIES WILL KEEP
THE RISK OF SHOWERS NEXT WEEK, BUT INSTABILITY LOOKS MEAGER TO
SUPPORT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
HEAVY SHOWERS AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MTN,
BWI, DCA AND IAD TERMINALS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. WINDS
WILL BE GENERALLY SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 KNOTS GUSTS 20 KNOTS.
HOWEVER, STRONG THUNDERSTORMS COULD BRING WIND GUSTS OF 45 TO 55
KNOTS BRIEFLY AT ANY SITE OVER THE NEXT 4 HOURS.
SOME PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP TONIGHT IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE MORE
APPRECIABLE RAIN AND SEE SOME CLEARING/LIGHTER WINDS.
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON BOTH THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS UNCERTAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, BUT ANY STORM COULD CONTAIN HAIL AND STRONG WIND
GUSTS. THERE IS A HIGHER CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES. WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT OUT OF THE WEST OR
SOUTHWEST BOTH DAYS.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE PREDOMINANTLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
WITH SOME REDUCED CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY EVENING
ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS
FLOW OUT OF THE NW BEFORE SHIFTING S SUNDAY.
MARINE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING. SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AS A BAND OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. WIND GUSTS
OVER 40 KNOTS COULD ACCOMPANY THE STRONG STORMS THROUGH EARLY
THIS EVENING. NO MARINE HAZARDS OVERNIGHT. A RECURRENCE OF SMWS
MAY BE NEEDED IN THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AND THEN AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING DUE TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. A BREAK IN HAZARDS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BEFORE THE
NEXT POSSIBILITY OF ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS BECOME POSSIBLE
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
CLIMATE
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO SOAR TO AS MUCH AS 15 TO 20 DEGREES
ABOVE AVERAGE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS APPROACHES OR EXCEEDS
DAILY RECORD VALUES AT SOME SITES.
BELOW IS A LIST OF RECORD DAILY HIGH AND WARM LOW TEMPERATURES
FOR JUNE 11TH AND 12TH (THURSDAY AND FRIDAY).
=================================================================
JUNE 11TH RECORD DAILY HIGHS AND WARM LOWS
=================================================================
SITE RECORD HIGH RECORD WARM LOW
DCA 101 F (SET IN 1911) 74 F (SET IN 2020 +6 OTHERS)
IAD 95 F (SET IN 2016) 72 F (SET IN 2005)
BWI 99 F (SET IN 1911) 75 F (SET IN 1914)
DMH 100 F (SET IN 1984) 79 F (SET IN 1984)
NAK 96 F (SET IN 2000) 79 F (SET IN 1973)
HGR 97 F (SET IN 1911) 73 F (SET IN 2005)
MRB 101 F (SET IN 1911) 71 F (SET IN 1927 AND 1922)
CHO 99 F (SET IN 1911) 76 F (SET IN 2020)
=================================================================
JUNE 12TH RECORD DAILY HIGHS AND WARM LOWS
=================================================================
SITE RECORD HIGH RECORD WARM LOW
DCA 95 F (SET IN 2017 +6 OTHERS) 77 F (SET IN 2015)
IAD 96 F (SET IN 1986) 72 F (SET IN 1986)
BWI 96 F (SET IN 1986 AND 1914) 77 F (SET IN 1947)
DMH 96 F (SET IN 2025 +2 OTHERS) 77 F (SET IN 2017 AND 2015)
NAK 98 F (SET IN 1914) 77 F (SET IN 2000 AND 1973)
HGR 92 F (SET IN 2017 +5 OTHERS) 71 F (SET IN 2010 +5 OTHERS)
MRB 97 F (SET IN 1938 AND 1933) 73 F (SET IN 1914)
CHO 98 F (SET IN 1914) 72 F (SET IN 1947 +2 OTHERS)
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ008.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
ANZ530>543.
DISCUSSION...LFR/KLW/DHOF
AVIATION...LFR/KLW/DHOF
MARINE...LFR/KLW/DHOF
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