038
FXUS61 KRNK 240756
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
356 AM EDT FRI JUL 24 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION FORECAST UPDATED.
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A DISTURBANCE WILL BRING OCCASIONAL SHOWERS TODAY, AND
WIDESPREAD RAIN THIS EVENING.
2) COOL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY, GIVING WAY TO
A WARMING TREND STARTING SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...A DISTURBANCE WILL BRING OCCASIONAL SHOWERS
TODAY, AND WIDESPREAD RAIN THIS EVENING.
STARTING THE DAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SETTLED ACROSS THE
LOWER MID-ATLANTIC, AND A STATIONARY FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS. LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO DRAW
UNSEASONABLY COOL MOIST AIR FROM NEW ENGLAND, RESULTING IN
WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING.
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL OCCUR TODAY, THOUGH A
WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL PASS ALONG THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY DURING
THE AFTERNOON, DRAWING MOIST AIR FROM THE SOUTHEAST ATOP THE
COOLER AIR HUGGING THE SURFACE IN OVERRUNNING STYLE. AS SUCH,
SPOTTY SHOWERS WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON, WITH MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN MOVING ACROSS THE LOWER
MID-ATLANTIC THIS EVENING. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP WITH
AFTERNOON HEATING, BUT FEEL THE COOL AIR HUGGING THE SURFACE
WILL STRICTLY LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE.
ALSO NOTICING THAT ABUNDANT MOISTURE REMAINS JUST SOUTH OF OUR
AREA, WHICH WILL BE DRAWN NORTHWARD ACROSS NORTHWEST NORTH
CAROLINA INTO THE SOUTHSIDE AREA OF VIRGINIA AS THE DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES, WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER RISING TO 2+ INCHES THIS
EVENING. WINDS TODAY ARE FORECASTED TO BE PREDOMINANTLY FROM THE
NORTHEAST, A DIRECTION NOT IDEAL TO PRODUCE UPSLOPE, HIGH-
EFFICIENCY RAINFALL. REGARDLESS, WILL HAVE TO MONITOR RAIN GAGES
IN THE UPSLOPE AREAS, SUCH AS ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE, AS DOPPLER
RADAR DOES TEND TO UNDERESTIMATE UPSLOPE RAINFALL TOTALS WHEN
WINDS ARE GENERALLY FROM THE ATLANTIC.
KEY MESSAGE 2...COOL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY,
GIVING WAY TO A WARMING TREND STARTING SUNDAY.
PASSAGE OF A WEAK DISTURBANCE EAST TONIGHT WILL NUDGE THE FRONT
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH INTO SATURDAY
MORNING, WITH DRIER AIR ARRIVING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
THIS WILL RESULT IN OVERALL DRIER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOWER
MID-ATLANTIC FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, WITH ONLY DISORGANIZED,
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING WITH AFTERNOON HEATING.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLY COOL ON SATURDAY BEFORE
RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL ON SUNDAY, THE START OF A WARMING TREND
AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES.
AS DEEPER MOISTURE POOLS SOUTH OF THIS FRONT, WE CAN EXPECT THE
RETURN OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY THAT WILL
BE CAPABLE OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS THAT COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING. IF THE FRONT CAN ADVANCE THIS FAR SOUTH, IT WILL
DO SO MOST LIKELY ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT, AND WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL OF BRINGING ANOTHER SURGE OF DRY CANADIAN AIR FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WORKWEEK.
AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS REMAIN ESTABLISHED THIS MORNING, CARRYING
MARITIME AIR OFF THE ATLANTIC. THIS HAS RESULTED IN WIDESPREAD
STRATUS ACROSS THE AREA THAT IS GRADUALLY LOWERING TOWARD THE
MVFR TO IFR RANGE. WITH EARLY DAYTIME HEATING, EXPECT SCATTERED
IMPROVEMENTS WHERE CEILINGS WILL LIFT AND/OR SCATTER, HOWEVER A
DISTURBANCE PASSING ALONG THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WILL DRAW DEEPER MOISTURE NORTHWARD OVERTOP THE
COOLER NORTHEASTERLY AIR HUGGING THE SURFACE. AS SUCH, SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
REGION BEGINNING AROUND 22Z THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. HIGH
CONFIDENCE THIS WILL ALSO BRING A RETURN OF WIDESPREAD LOW MVFR
TO IFR CEILINGS AREAWIDE, AS WELL AS VISIBILITIES IN THE 1SM TO
4SM RANGE DUE TO RAINFALL.
OUTLOOK SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
DRIER AIR WILL ARRIVE ON SATURDAY AS THE DISTURBANCE EXITS TO
THE EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR RAINFALL TO RETURN TO A PATTERN OF
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED COVERAGE DURING THE AFTERNOONS AND
EVENINGS THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH MVFR/IFR CEILINGS SATURDAY
NIGHT SCATTERING WITH DAYTIME HEATING ON SUNDAY AS WINDS SHIFT
FROM THE WEST. A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN OF AFTERNOON
HEATING-DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN FOR MONDAY
AND TUESDAY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT
LAKES.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...NF
AVIATION...NF
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