546
FXUS61 KRNK 062349
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
749 PM EDT THU AUG 6 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
WEATHER PATTERN SUPPORTS DAILY CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH GREATEST COVERAGE OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
ADJACENT FOOTHILLS.
00Z AVIATION IS UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
1) UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THIS WEEK
AND INTO UPCOMING WEEKEND. RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS
MARGINAL. GREATEST CHANCE FOR RAINFALL WILL BE OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS. LOWER CHANCE FOR PIEDMONT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REST
OF THIS WEEK AND INTO UPCOMING WEEKEND. RISK FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL IS MARGINAL. GREATEST CHANCE FOR RAINFALL WILL BE OVER
THE MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS. LOWER CHANCE FOR PIEDMONT.
LARGE SCALE FLOW ALOFT FEATURES A SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC RIDGE,
A.K.A. BERMUDA HIGH OFF THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST AND A BROAD
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL CONUS. THIS
CONFIGURATION WILL MAINTAIN A SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FETCH OF
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ADVECTING NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND QUITE POSSIBLY ALL
OF NEXT WEEK. WITH NO SIGN OF ANY MAIN FEATURE OR WAVE
TRAVERSING ACROSS THE AREA, THE FORCING MECHANISM FOR CONVECTION
WILL LARGELY BE DAYTIME HEATING AND OROGRAPHIC LIFT KEEPING THE
GREATEST CHANCES ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS
EACH DAY. HIGH PWATS IN THE 1.5 TO 2.0 INCH RANGE WILL SUPPORT
HYDROMETEOR LOADING WITHIN SHOWERS AND STORMS TO BE EFFICIENT
RAIN PRODUCERS AND ALLOW FOR ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL
AS WELL. SEE THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.
THE UPPER TROUGH TO OUR NORTHWEST WILL OCCASIONALLY STEER A
SHORT WAVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY, OF WHICH MAY HAVE DOWNSTREAM
IMPLICATIONS FOR A ROUND OF STRONGER, POTENTIALLY SOMEWHAT MORE
ORGANIZED STORMS. TRYING TO PICK THIS OUT OF THE NOISE IS A
TIMING AND PLACEMENT CHALLENGE HOWEVER WITH PREDICTABILITY TOO
LOW TO HIGHLIGHT WITH ANY CONFIDENCE. IN GENERAL USING A WIDE
PAINT BRUSH TO HIGHLIGHT THE POPS THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, WITH
GREATEST CONFIDENCE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WHERE OROGRAPHIC LIFT
AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING WILL HAVE BEST CHANCE TO PROVIDE LOW
LEVEL LIFT. AS FOR TEMPERATURES, WILL BE GOING WITH PERSISTENCE
WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S...BASICALLY NEAR THE SEASONAL
NORMAL FOR HIGHS AND 3 TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
OVERNIGHT LOWS, THE ELEVATED DEWPOINTS ACTING AS A FLOOR FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
SCATTERED THUNDERSHOWERS THIS EVENING WITH GREATEST COVERAGE
OVER THE MOUNTAINS. STORMS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH AFTER 01Z/09P.
SOME OVERNIGHT VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE AGAIN, ESPECIALLY IN
LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVE RAIN THIS AFTERNOON.
LIGHT SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS TONIGHT THEN 10 KNOTS OF LESS
FRIDAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
FORECAST PERSISTENCE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND WEEKEND
WITH MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS CONTRIBUTING TO DAILY THREAT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. OVERNIGHT FOG DEVELOPMENT ALSO EXPECTED WITH
GREATEST CONCENTRATION WITHIN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.
HYDROLOGY
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. REPEATED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AMIDST A MOIST AIR MASS WILL PERSIST THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK.
NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS FOR ANY PARTICULAR
LOCATION.
PWAT VALUES EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE 1.50" TO 2.00" RANGE.
HIGH AMBIENT MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE VERY EFFICIENT RAINFALL RATES
WHICH COULD EXCEED 2-3 INCHES PER HOUR. URBAN AREAS AND ALONG
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN WILL BE PARTICULARLY SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLASH
FLOODING.
ANTECEDENT SOIL CONDITIONS ARE GRADUALLY TURNING WETTER ACROSS
THE AREA, BUT THERE ARE STILL CONSIDERABLE RAINFALL DEFICITS
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BMG/RCS
AVIATION...RCS
HYDROLOGY...PM
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