583
FXUS61 KRNK 241901
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
301 PM EDT MON AUG 24 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION FORECAST UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DRIER COOLER WEATHER REMAINS THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH NEXT
RAIN CHANCES RETURNING THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: DRIER COOLER WEATHER REMAINS THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH NEXT
RAIN CHANCES RETURNING THURSDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH TUESDAY, AND THE EARLY PORTION OF
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
AVERAGE THROUGH THE TUESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY, THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH LOOKS TO FINALLY GET EJECTED TO THE NORTHEAST, WHICH WILL
START TO RAISE 500MB HEIGHTS AND SUBSEQUENTLY SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY ACROSS THE REGION. AS THIS HAPPENS,
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THAT LOOKS TO REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY WILL SLOWLY PUSH EAST AND
ALLOW THE BERMUDA SURFACE HIGH TO TAKE OVER. THIS WILL PUMP MORE
MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC, AND
RETURN THE SUMMER LIKE HUMID AIRMASS AREAWIDE BY WEDNESDAY.
AGAIN ON LATE WEDNESDAY, AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE VORTICITY
MAXIMA LOOKS TO EJECT SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES REGION. THIS SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO HAVE A COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH IT AT THE SURFACE THAT WILL BRING RAIN CHANCES
BACK INTO THE REGION BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AT THIS
TIME, IT APPEARS THAT THE MOUNTAINS WILL SEE BETTER CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BASED OFF OF THE TIMING OF THE COLD
FRONT; HOWEVER, THIS COULD CHANGE IN THE COMING DAYS. IT'S STILL
TOO SOON AT THIS TIME TO KNOW WHETHER THESE STORMS WILL BRING
THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER OR FLASH FLOODING, AS THIS WILL
GREATLY DEPEND ON THE TIMING ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT. ONCE CAM GUIDANCE COMES INTO RANGE
STARTING LATE TUESDAY, MORE INFORMATION WILL BE KNOWN ON THE
OVERALL SEVERITY OF THESE STORMS, AND THEIR POTENTIAL IMPACTS
TO THE REGION.
AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AREAWIDE AT ALL TERMINALS TODAY AND
INTO THE EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS, RIVER VALLEY FOG LOOKS TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN AT SITES
LIKE LWB AND BCB, WITH LIKELY MVFR TO LIFR RESTRICTIONS
OCCURRING BETWEEN 08-13 UTC AT THOSE TWO TERMINALS. ALL OTHER
TERMINALS LOOK TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, WITH 5-10
KNOT WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST TODAY TRANSITIONING TO CALM OR
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. BY TUESDAY MORNING, WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN
LIGHT AT 5 KNOTS OR LESS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST FOR BCB, LWB, AND
BLF, BUT WILL SLOWLY TRANSITION TO NORTHERLY/NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
AT LYH AND DAN AT A SIMILAR SPEED OF 5 KNOTS OR LESS.
OUTLOOK...
DRIER AIRMASS WILL REMAIN INTO WEDNESDAY, WITH THE RETURN TO
DAILY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY. SHOULD BE
MAINLY VFR ASIDE FROM ANY LATE NIGHT FOG, MAINLY KLWB. NEXT
SYSTEM APPEARS TO BRING SOME CHANCES FOR STORMS THURSDAY WITH
POSSIBILITY FOR SUB- VFR CIGS/VSBYS.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...EB
AVIATION...EB
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