848
FXUS61 KRNK 170609
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
209 AM EDT THU SEP 17 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
STORM CHANCES TODAY ARE LOW, WITH GREATER CHANCES COMING ON
FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS/STORMS TODAY, CONTINUING
DAILY INTO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS/STORMS TODAY,
CONTINUING DAILY INTO NEXT WEEK.
POCKETS OF RIVER VALLEY FOG THIS MORNING UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. WILL SEE ANY FOG DISSIPATE AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER SUNRISE.
THE UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE TN VALLEY IS FORECAST
TO WEAKEN AND RETROGRADE FARTHER WEST AND BECOME CENTERED OVER
THE ARK-LA-TEX BY THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW A FRONT OVER THE
GREAT LAKES TO SAG SOUTH OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC WITH INCREASING
MOISTURE LEADING TO A DAILY CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS
PERSISTING THROUGH NEXT WEEK. OVERALL, SEVERE THREAT REMAINS
LOW GIVEN LACK OF SHEAR TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION.
COVERAGE OF ANY CONVECTION TODAY SHOULD BE RATHER
LIMITED GIVEN THE INFLUENCE OF UPPER RIDGING, BUT A LEE SIDE
TROUGH MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING BY THIS AFTERNOON FOR A FEW
STORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SHOULD SEE STORMS
DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET, AND THEN REMAIN MOSTLY DRY AGAIN
TONIGHT. BETTER COVERAGE OF STORMS COMES FRIDAY AS THE FRONT
MOVES CLOSER TO THE FORECAST AREA AND THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO
SHIFT WEST. AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE CAROLINAS, IT STALLS ON
SATURDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE WEDGES SOUTH ALONG THE APPALACHIANS,
WHICH AGAIN WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR WIDELY SCATTERED
AFTERNOON/EVENING RAIN/STORMS. THE STALLED FRONT WILL LIFT
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON SUNDAY AND MULTIPLE UPPER DISTURBANCES
WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION, CONTINUING A DAILY CHANCE FOR
RAIN/STORMS INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
WARMEST TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, FEATURING
WIDESPREAD UPPER 80S TO MID 90S. WILL SEE TEMPERATURES LOWER
SOMEWHAT AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
RIDGING SHIFTS WEST, BUT WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID
SEPTEMBER.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AREAS OF RIVER VALLEY FOG AGAIN THIS MORNING IN TYPICAL
LOCATIONS. LWB SEEING THE GREATEST IMPACTS WITH LIFR LIKELY HERE
THROUGH SUNRISE. A LITTLE LESS CONFIDENCE ELSEWHERE, BUT BRIEF
REDUCTION POSSIBLE AT BCB.
AFTER MORNING FOG, VFR RETURNS AREAWIDE WITH ONLY AN ISOLATED
CHANCE OF STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE ADDED A MENTION OF VCTS TO
TAFS AT LWB/BLF/BCB, BUT STILL CONFIDENCE REMAINS RATHER LOW.
ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM WILL DISSIPATE BY SUNSET AND ANOTHER
ROUND OF OVERNIGHT FOG LIKELY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWER/STORM CHANCES THROUGH MON ESPECIALLY OVER
THE MOUNTAINS, BUT ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE ORGANIZED AND
MAINLY COINCIDING WITH THE HEATING OF THE DAY. DAILY MORNING FOG
IN FAVORED VALLEYS.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BMG/PM
AVIATION...BMG
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page