767
FXUS61 KRNK 052329
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
729 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION AND FORECAST DISCUSSION UPDATED.
ADJUSTED POPS THIS EVENING BASED ON RADAR/HRRR TRENDS WITH BEST
COVERAGE FROM THE ALLEGHANYS TO THE NC PIEDMONT. ADJUSTED POPS
DOWN MONDAY AS HIGH-RES MODEL TRENDS ARE NOT SHOWING AS GOOD A
COVERAGE AS THE NBM, AND THIS IS USUALLY THE CASE WITH SUMMER
CONVECTION.
KEY MESSAGES
KEY MESSAGES 1: MULTIPLE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES 1: MULTIPLE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS WEEK.
MID-AFTERNOON HRRR WAS DOING THE BEST WITH RADAR TRENDS, AND
SHOULD SEE BEST CONVERGENCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS IN TWO GENERAL
AREAS, FROM THE ALLEGHANYS TO NEW/ROANOKE RIVER VALLEYS AND
ACROSS SOUTHSIDE VA INTO NC PIEDMONT. SEVERE THREAT IS LOWER
TODAY AS BEST DCAPE IS WELL EAST OF THE AREA WITH ANOTHER AREA
IN KY AROUND 900. STILL SOME GUSTY WINDS/HEAVY DOWNPOURS FROM
THE STRONGER STORMS COULD KNOCK DOWN SOME TREE BRANCHES, CAUSING
ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES.
FOR TOMORROW, LOWERED POPS ABOUT 10-20 PERCENT AS THE NBM HAS
TENDED TO BE TOO OVERDONE WITH HIGH POPS IN SUMMER CONVECTION.
THERE DOES LOOK TO BE SOME BETTER UPPER ENERGY AROUND TOMORROW
SO STILL MORE COVERAGE THAN TODAY. SEVERE THREAT WILL DEPENDENT
ON ANY CLOUDS IN THE MORNING, BUT MODELS SHOW CLEARING BY
MIDDAY, WITH BEST PARAMETERS FOR STRONG STORMS EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS.
MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES LOOK TO PUSH ACROSS THE REGION, WITH THE
BLOCKING RIDGE NOW DISPLACED SOUTH AND EAST. THESE MID-LEVEL
DISTURBANCES LOOK TO AID IN FORCING FOR ASCENT ACROSS THE AREA,
HELPING TO DEVELOP SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. WITH PWATS
LINGERING ABOVE 1.2-1.7 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS, DAILY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, BUT SHOULD DIMINISH SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET AS SURFACE
BASED HEATING ENDS. MOST DAYS, STORMS LOOK TO INITIATE OFF THE
MOUNTAINS THANKS TO DIFFERENTIAL HEATING. FROM THIS INITIATION
POINT, STORMS WILL LIKELY BLOW OUT IN ALL DIRECTIONS, AND LOOK TO
BECOME OUTFLOW DOMINANT. THIS TREND LOOKS TO CONTINUE TODAY AND
MONDAY, WITH STORM CHANCES LIKELY CONTINUING THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK.
WHILE THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT MAY SLIGHTLY DECREASE EACH
DAY, THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING LOOKS TO INCREASE, WITH
PWATS INCREASING TO NEAR 2 INCHES BY MONDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME VERY EFFICIENT, WITH WARM RAINFALL
PROCESSES LIKELY OCCURRING.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD, OUTSIDE ANY STORMS.
BASED ON RADAR/HIGH-RES MODELS HAVE VCTS AT ROA WITH TEMPO
00Z-01Z WITH IFR CONDITIONS. HAVE VCTS AT LWB AND BCB AS WELL.
FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WHERE IT RAINED, AND FOR NOW
HAVE IFR OR LOWER AT LWB/BCB IN THE 06-14Z TIME FRAME.
ROA/LYH/DAN/BLF COULD TOUCH MVFR VSBYS.
AFTER FOG/STRATUS CLEARS MONDAY AFTER 14Z, ANTICIPATE SOME HIGH
CLOUDS GIVING WAY TO BUILDING CUMULUS INTO CBS. COVERAGE SHOULD
BE BETTER THAN TODAY BUT STILL SCATTERED ABOUT SUCH THAT VCTS IS
THE WAY TO GO IN THE AFTERNOON WITH VFR BROKEN CIGS.
OUTSIDE OF STORMS WIND WILL BE LIGHT/CALM, GENERALLY UNDER 6KTS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CHANCES EACH DAY. THE PRIMARY FLIGHT
CATEGORY IS EXPECTED TO BE VFR WITH TEMPO MVFR AND SOME IFR DUE
TO THUNDERSTORMS AND/OR LATE NIGHT MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...EB/WP
AVIATION...EB/WP
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