646
FXUS61 KRNK 141927
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
227 PM EST SUN DEC 14 2025
SYNOPSIS
BLAST OF BITTER COLD WILL STICK AROUND THROUGH MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO PLUNGE INTO THE TEENS AND
SINGLE DIGITS WITH POTENTIAL FOR SUB-ZERO WIND CHILLS.
AFTER THE POLAR PLUNGE, A PATTERN CHANGE IS EXPECTED WITH
TEMPERATURES TRENDING WARMER FOR MID- WEEK AND BEYOND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 200 PM EST SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
1) BITTER COLD TEMPERATURES/WIND CHILLS TONIGHT AND EARLY
MONDAY.
HEADLINES: COLD WEATHER ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING ALONG
AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE FOR SUBZERO WIND CHILLS. AN EXTREME
COLD WARNING FOR THE MOUNTAINS NORTHWEST OF LEWISBURG, WV FOR
WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS MINUS 25 F. A WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT
FOR THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE FOR WIND GUSTS OF 45 TO 55 MPH.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST...OTHER THAN TO BEEF UP
THE WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS
SHOW TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE WITH
SURGE OF STRONGEST WIND TO OCCUR JUST AFTER SUNSET. THE HRRR
SUGGESTS SOME GUSTS AS HIGH AS 65 MPH POSSIBLE NEAR FANCY GAP
WHERE I-77 BISECTS THE MOUNTAIN. THIS MAY BE OVERDONE, BUT
THOUGHT THIS TO BE A CASE TO HAVE A SEPARATE HEADLINE FOR WIND
SUCH THAT WE CAN AT LEAST HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN QUICKLY FROM THE WEST SO LOOK FOR A
DROP IN THE WINDS AFTER MIDNIGHT. WITH THE LIGHTER WINDS LATE
AND CLEAR SKIES FOR MOST TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO IN THE MOUNTAINS THOUGH SOME AREAS LIKE BURKES
GARDEN AND WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY MAY SEE SUB-ZERO LOWS,
ESPECIALLY WITH SNOW COVER. THE PIEDMONT WILL DROP IN THE LOWER
TEENS. DESPITE THIS VERY COLD AIRMASS, RECORD LOWS ARE ABOUT 5
TO 10 DEGREES COLDER MOSTLY FROM 1914/1917. BLUEFIELD MAY GET
THE CLOSEST TO THEIR RECORD OF ZERO, WITH A FORECASTED LOW OF 2
ABOVE.
MONDAY WILL BE A STRUGGLE TO GET BACK ABOVE FREEZING, BUT WITH A
FULL DAY OF SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS, THE AFTERNOON SHOULD BE
TOLERABLE. THICKNESSES WILL BE ON THE RISE AS THE COLD UPPER
TROUGH MOVES OFF THE COAST...FLOW TRENDING ZONAL...SO THE BITTER
COLD AIRMASS WILL BE SHORT LIVED.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 200 PM EST SUNDAY...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US
MONDAY NIGHT, BEGINNING TO SHIFT OFFSHORE INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPRESS
CONVECTION, WITH NO RAIN EXPECTED DURING THE ENTIRE PERIOD. ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES STEADILY INCREASING AS NO LARGE
SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED. A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH DOES PASS BY JUST TO
OUR NORTH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, AND COMBINED WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW
ADVECTING MOISTURE INTO THE AREA, COULD ALLOW A STRAY SHOWER TO FORM
IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS, PARTICULARLY IN WV, BUT CURRENT CONFIDENCE
IN THIS IS LOW. OTHERWISE, QUIET AND DRY WEATHER PERSISTS THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL TUESDAY, WITH
WIDESPREAD 40S. HIGHS INCREASE FURTHER INTO THE 40S/50S FOR
WEDNESDAY, SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE CHILLY
MONDAY NIGHT, IN THE TEENS TO LOW 20S, BUT SLIGHTLY INCREASE INTO
THE 20S TO AROUND 30 TUESDAY NIGHT, AND IN THE LOW 30S AREA-WIDE ON
WEDNESDAY.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 200 PM EST SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) INCREASING CONFIDENCE OF A COLD FRONT BRINGING WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT.
2) ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES PERSIST THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
THURSDAY WILL START OUT DRY WITH WARM SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS KEEPING
TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL. CLOUDS INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH
A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITH POPS INCREASING FROM 20% TO NEAR 50%
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. A STRONG COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER-
LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY,
STRETCHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION DOWN INTO TEXAS. THIS
PROGRESSES EAST THROUGH THE DAY AND MOVES INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL WILL MOVE IN THURSDAY NIGHT, LASTING THROUGH AROUND
DAYBREAK FRIDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED ENOUGH THAT POPS
ARE AROUND 60-70%, EVEN FOUR DAYS OUT. ALL PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN
AS RAIN INITIALLY UNTIL THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH, WITH SOME
LINGERING UPSLOPE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE FOR THE WESTERN FACING
MOUNTAINS, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW. WINDS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL
INCREASE, GUSTING TO 25-35+ MPH ALONG/WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS INTO THE AREA, KEEPING THE WEATHER QUIET AND
DRY THROUGH SUNDAY. THE HIGH WILL THEN BE IN THE ATLANTIC, CAUSING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO ADVECT MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. DUE TO THIS,
RAIN CHANCES RETURN FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON, BUT POPS ARE LOW AROUND
30%. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY, INCREASING
RAIN CHANCES ONCE AGAIN.
TEMPERATURES WILL VARY THROUGH THE PERIOD DUE TO THE FROPA. HIGHS
THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60, BUT FALL INTO THE 30S/40S
FOR FRIDAY. HIGHS MODERATE INTO THE 40S FOR SATURDAY AND RISE BACK
INTO THE 40S/50S, WITH A FEW 60S FOR THE PIEDMONT NEXT SUNDAY. LOWS
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 20S/30S EACH MORNING.
AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 200 PM EST SUNDAY...
EXPECT VFR FROM ROA/LYH/DAN WITH LINGERING FLURRIES AND MVFR
CLOUD BASES AT BLF/LWB. STRONG NW WINDS ONGOING WITH GUSTS OF
20-30KT LIKELY UNTIL LATE EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING.
IN GENERAL EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE DURING THE OVERNIGHT
WITH WINDS SUBSIDING AND SKIES CLEARING OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
TONIGHT WILL BE BITTERLY COLD WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS.
EXTENDED AVIATON OUTLOOK
VFR EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A BITTER COLD AIRMASS
WILL BE OVER THE AREA MONDAY, THEN MODERATE MIDWEEK. RAIN
CHANCES INCREASE AREAWIDE THURSDAY WHICH COULD BRING SUB-VFR
CIGS/VSBYS.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR VAZ007-
009>020-022>024.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR VAZ015>017.
NC...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR NCZ001-002-
018.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NCZ001-002-018.
WV...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR WVZ042>044-
507.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
WVZ508.
EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR WVZ508.
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...PM
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