993
FXUS61 KRNK 181321
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
921 AM EDT TUE AUG 18 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A PASSING COLD FRONT WILL BRING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS TODAY, ALONG WILL SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY.
2) A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A PASSING COLD FRONT WILL BRING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS TODAY, ALONG WILL SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY.
LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A COLD FRONT DRIFTING
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF WEST VIRGINIA THIS MORNING AS DRIER
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
DRIFT SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY, EVENTUALLY CLEARING THE LOWER
MID-ATLANTIC BY TONIGHT. LATEST FORECAST DATA SUGGESTS THE FRONT
WILL TRIGGER WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE PIEDMONT, WITH THE HIGHEST RAIN
CHANCES OCCURRING EAST OF HIGHWAY 29. CAN'T TOTALLY RULE OUT
ONE OR TWO OF THESE STORMS REACHING SEVERE INTENSITY FOR A
BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME, BUT THE ENERGY NEEDED TO SUPPORT MORE
WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF SEVERE STORMS WILL BE HIGHLY LIMITED
TODAY. OTHERWISE, THE ARRIVAL OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES AROUND NORMAL FOR MID-AUGUST
FOR BOTH TODAY AND WEDNESDAY, WITH A NOTICEABLE DROP IN
HUMIDITY AS WELL. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY,
WITH CLOUDS INCREASING ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT
APPROACHES.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE LOWER MID-ATLANTIC THURSDAY MORNING, AND WILL TRIGGER ROUNDS
OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EACH DAY THOUGH SATURDAY AS
THE BOUNDARY DRIFTS SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION. THE COMBINATION
OF DEEP MOISTURE AND STRONG DAYTIME HEATING WILL SUPPORT A FEW
INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING, CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING BOTH LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAIN THAT MAY RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.
THURSDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE WARMEST DAY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO THE
LOW TO MID 90S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. COMBINED WITH INCREASED
HUMIDITY, THIS WILL PUSH HEAT INDICES INTO THE LOW 100S ACROSS
THIS AREA DURING MID-AFTERNOON. MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE
THEN EXPECTED FROM FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE SCATTERED MVFR CEILINGS ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING, WITH POCKETS OF FOG HAVING DEVELOPED
WHERE SKIES REMAINS SCATTERED. EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO
PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.
CONDITIONS ARE FORECASTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR DURING MID TO LATE
MORNING, WITH THESE CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY. WESTERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH
THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT, WITH MOST SPEEDS AROUND 10 KTS.
FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL TRIGGER WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE 18Z TO 01Z TIMEFRAME, WITH GREATEST
COVERAGE FORECASTED TO BE EAST OF A KHSP TO KDAN LINE. NOT
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE OF STORMS TO MAKE MENTION IN THE
TAF FOR KLYH. WITH CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT, FOG WILL BECOME MORE
PROMINENT IN THE MOUNTAIN RIVER VALLEYS.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY OUTSIDE OF EARLY MORNING
FOG. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN FOR THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT DRIFTS ACROSS THE LOWER MID-ATLANTIC.
LOCALIZED IFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE VICINITY OF THE
STORMS.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CG/NF
AVIATION...NF
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