578
FXUS61 KRNK 251011
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
611 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION UPDATED.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST, WITH MOSTLY DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED UNTIL FRIDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT PUSHES INTO THE REGION.
KEY MESSAGES
1) RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE TO LOOK FAVORABLE FOR LATER
THIS WEEK.
2) COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE ROLLER COASTER OF
TEMPERATURES AND BRING SOME GUSTY WINDS TOWARDS THE END OF THE
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE TO LOOK FAVORABLE FOR LATER
THIS WEEK.
FORECAST REMAINS MOSTLY ON TRACK FOR A COLD FRONT TO ARRIVE LATER
THIS WEEK AND PROVIDE A ROUND OF PRECIPITATION. SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS
FORECASTS, A SMALL DISTURBANCE ALSO LOOKS TO ARRIVE THURSDAY TO
PROVIDE UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION TO THE MORE WESTERN MOUNTAINOUS
COUNTIES. VERY LITTLE RAIN ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED FOR THIS
THURSDAY EVENT. THE MAIN UPDATE WITH THE FRIDAY SYSTEM IS RECENT
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT
WILL ARRIVE A LITTLE EARLIER THAN EXPECTED. THE EARLIEST TIMING OF
THE RAIN MAY BE FRIDAY MORNING (SUNRISE) AS OPPOSED TO FRIDAY NIGHT.
SINCE THE FRONT WILL BE ARRIVING FROM THE NORTH-NORTHWEST, UPSLOPE
PRECIPITATION WILL GRANT LARGER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS, ESPECIALLY IN WV. WESTERN GREENBRIER MAY RECEIVE UP TO A
HALF AN INCH OF RAIN WHILE OTHER HIGHER ALTITUDES MAY RECEIVE UP TO
A QUARTER OF AN INCH. OTHER LOCATIONS MAY RECEIVE BETWEEN 0.1-0.2".
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AS THE
ARRIVAL OF THE STORMS MAY COINCIDE WITH MAXIMUM DAYTIME HEATING.
SEVERE WEATHER CONCERNS, HOWEVER, ARE TRIVIAL AT THIS POINT GIVEN
WEAK INSTABILITY. HIGHER PRESSURE TAKES OVER AFTERWARDS TO PROVIDE
CALMER WEATHER CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 2: COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE ROLLER COASTER OF
TEMPERATURES AND BRING SOME GUSTY WINDS TOWARDS THE END OF THE
WEEK.
THE COLD FRONT THIS FRIDAY WILL TEMPORARILY BRING IN GUSTY, COLD,
AND DRY CONDITIONS. A LOW LEVEL JET AT 850MB WILL HAVE WINDS BETWEEN
45-55 MPH WHICH MAY TRANSLATE INTO WIND GUSTS OF 35-40 MPH AT RIDGE
TOPS. A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL FORM AS THE FRONT PASSES AND
WILL RESULT IN SURFACE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 20-35 MPH ALONG AND
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. WINDS WILL BECOME CALM BY THE WEEKEND AS THE
CENTER OF AN APPROACHING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO
SOUTHWEST VA. THE NEW AIRMASS WILL BE COOLER AND DRIER, SWINGING THE
TEMPERATURE PENDULUM AGAIN. WHILE TEMPERATURES MAY BE THE IN THE 70S
AND LOWER 80S BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON, SATURDAY MORNING TEMPERATURES MAY
BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 40S. DEW POINTS AS WELL WILL DROP BACK
INTO THE TEENS AND 20S. A RIDGE OVER THE US/MEXICAN BORDER WILL MOVE
EASTWARD AND OVER THE GULF BY THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL BEGIN ANOTHER
WARMING TREND AND BRING HIGH TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 60S AND
70S BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVER ALL TERMINALS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL PERIODICALLY PUSH
THROUGH THE REGION WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN CONDITIONS AT TIMES;
HOWEVER, THESE CIGS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO LEAD TO ANY RESTRICTIONS
ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS TODAY LOOK TO REMAIN OUT OF THE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AT ALL TERMINALS AT AROUND 5-10 KNOTS, WITH
GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON PICKING UP TO AROUND 15 KNOTS BETWEEN THE
18-00 UTC TIMEFRAME. A SLIGHT WIND SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST IS
EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS BETWEEN THE 06-12 UTC TIMEFRAME
THURSDAY. OVERALL, AVIATION CONCERNS LOOK TO REMAIN MINIMAL
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
VFR ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN THE DOMINANT RULE INTO THURSDAY
MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINS ITS GRIP ON THE REGION.
HOWEVER, THIS PERIOD OF CLEAR SKIES WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS AN APPROACHING SYSTEM PUSHES LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS INTO THE MOUNTAINS, LIKELY BRINGING THE FIRST WAVE OF
SUB-VFR RESTRICTIONS TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THIS TREND WILL
CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT TREKS ACROSS THE AREA,
PROVIDING A SECOND OPPORTUNITY FOR LOWERED CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTERACTS WITH THE REGIONAL
TERRAIN. THE WEEKEND LOOKS VFR WITH COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CG
AVIATION...EB/VFJ
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