820
FXUS61 KRNK 100754
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
354 AM EDT WED JUN 10 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
CLOUD COVER EXPECTED TO MUTE TEMPERATURES. TRIMMED HIGHS 2 TO 5
DEGREES LOWER THAN MODEL BLENDS (NBM)...MORE IN LINE WITH
MET/MAV MODEL OUTPUT STATISTICS (MOS).
KEY MESSAGES
1: EXPECTING SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. BECAUSE
SOME AREAS COULD SEE REPEATED ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN, LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING IS A CONCERN. LOOKING AHEAD TO THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY, WARMING TEMPERATURES IS GOING TO INCREASE OUR RISK FOR
SEVERE WEATHER, MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
2: ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: EXPECTING SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY. BECAUSE SOME AREAS COULD SEE REPEATED ROUNDS OF HEAVY
RAIN, LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IS A CONCERN. LOOKING AHEAD TO
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, WARMING TEMPERATURES IS GOING TO INCREASE
OUR RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER, MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS.
IMPETUS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TODAY IS THE
PASSAGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. SHOWERS ALREADY ONGOING FROM
THE VA/WV HIGHLANDS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
PROGRESS EAST TODAY, BRINGING OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS WITH HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. REGIONAL SOUNDINGS INDICATE AN ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE
WITH PWATS OF 1.70 TO 2.00. AS SUCH, SHOWERS TODAY WILL BE RAIN
EFFICIENT WITH HIGH RAIN RATES. HIGHEST POPS ARE FOCUSED ON THE
NORTHERN CWA THIS MORNING, THEN SPREADING SOUTH AND EAST THIS
AFTERNOON. SINCE THERE IS CONSIDERABLE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS,
TEMPERATURES MAY NOT GET AS WARM AS FORECAST. IF THIS TURNS OUT
TO BE THE CASE THEN SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE MUTED.
AFTER THE UPPER TROUGH PASSES, EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME WESTERLY.
THIS WESTERLY FLOW WILL THEN ENHANCE WARMING FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY LEADING TO GREATER INSTABILITY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. IT WILL ALSO INHIBIT PREMATURE DEEP CONVECTION AND
ALLOW FOR STRONGER STORMS TO OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS EACH DAY. WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON ANY
UPSTREAM ACTIVITY, THE ENVIRONMENT BECOMING INCREASINGLY SUPPORTIVE
OF MCS DEVELOPMENT.
KEY MESSAGE 2: ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY.
WESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL COUPLE WITH DOWNSLOPE ADIABATIC WARMING LEE OF THE
BLUE RIDGE TO PRODUCE SOME REALLY WARM TEMPERATURES FOR THE
FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT, INCLUDING ROANOKE WHERE DAYTIME HIGHS
MAY REACH THE MID TO UPPER 90S. COMBINED WITH THE HIGH
DEW POINTS/HUMIDITY THE RESULTANT HEAT INDICES COULD FLIRT WITH
THE TRIPLE DIGITS. AS SUCH IT'S TIME TO START THINKING HEAT
SAFETY; A GIANT SWIMMING POOL COMES TO MIND AS AN INITIAL
STRATEGY.
EVEN AFTER THE FRONT PASSES LATE FRIDAY, THE AIRMASS DOES NOT
COOL DOWN THAT MUCH. IF ANYTHING, IT SHOULD HELP SCOUR THE CLOUD
COVER ALLOWING FOR MORE SOLAR INSOLATION OVER THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH GREATEST COVERAGE NORTH OF A BLF-
ROA-LYH LINE THIS MORNING, THEN SPREADING SOUTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON. THERE IS A HODGE-PODGE OF CLOUD LAYERS THIS MORNING,
AND THIS WILL LIKELY BE THE CASE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.
PREVAILING WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST BETWEEN 5-10 KTS,
WITH AN OCCASIONAL STRONGER GUST TO 15-20KTS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK
A SUMMERTIME WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM ABOVE NORMAL
LEADING TO STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS WHEN THEY OCCUR.
EXPECTING MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS AND POTENTIAL FOR LATE NIGHT FOG AND STRATUS.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...PM
AVIATION...PM
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