075
FXUS61 KRNK 221844
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
144 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY.
ANOTHER LARGER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK, WITH A BIG COOLDOWN EXPECTED FOR THANKSGIVING AND
BEYOND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 130 PM EST SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGE: DRIER AIRMASS RETURNS TO THE AREA FOR THE REST OF
THE WEEKEND.
MAIN DISTURBANCE AND SFC COLD FRONT HAS QUICKLY EXITED THE CWA
TO THE EAST AND ASSOCIATED SHOWER COVERAGE HAS DIMINISHED
GREATLY. TYPICAL COLD ADVECTION STRATOCU REMAINS IN THE WAKE OF
THE SYSTEM AND SHOULD HAVE LINGERING CLOUD COVERAGE THROUGH
TONIGHT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. STRONG MIXING AND SUBSIDENCE SHOULD
OCCUR DURING THE DAYTIME SUNDAY THAT WILL QUICKLY SCATTER ANY
CLOUDS WITH INCREASED WESTERLY WINDS. EVEN THOUGH WE WILL BE IN
THE COOLER POST FRONTAL REGIME WITH DECENT RIDGING, AFTERNOON
TEMPS SUNDAY SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE CLIMO NORMS AND VALUES SHOULD
MAINLY BE IN THE MID 60S FOR THE PIEDMONT AND MID TO UPPER 50S
FOR THE MOUNTAINS.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 1200 PM EST SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) HIGH PRESSURE WILL SUPPORT DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
2) LOW PRESSURE WILL ARRIVE FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT, RESULTING
IN PERIODS OF RAIN AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE PIEDMONT.
THE PASSAGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT WILL BRING DRY WEATHER TO THE LOWER MID-ATLANTIC UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WIND SPEEDS GENERALLY UNDER 10 MPH FROM THE
WEST. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE ARRIVAL OF A WARM FRONT ON TUESDAY
THAT WILL BRING PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN INTO TUESDAY NIGHT, WHEN AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN FROM THE
WEST. THERE ARE SIGNS IN THE LATEST ROUND OF WEATHER DATA THAT
SUGGEST A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE PIEDMONT TUESDAY
NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES OVERHEAD. UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS IN RAINFALL AMOUNTS, HOWEVER THERE ARE SIGNALS THAT RAINFALL
ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORMS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT COULD BE LOCALLY
HEAVY AT TIMES.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 1200 PM EST SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) A COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE LOWER MID-ATLANTIC ON WEDNESDAY.
2) TEMPERATURES WILL TRANSITION TO BETWEEN 8 TO 12 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
LOOKING TO WEDNESDAY, WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE DAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE LOWER MID-
ATLANTIC DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL USHER IN
COOLER AND DRIER CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL CONTROL OUR
WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORKWEEK. SKIES WILL
BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR WITH THE ARRIVAL OF HIGH PRESSURE, WITH WEST-
NORTHWESTERLY WINDFLOW THAT COULD BE BREEZY AT TIMES. WHILE
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD ON WEDNESDAY UNTIL THE COLD FRONT
ARRIVES, THEY WILL THEN TRANSITION TO BETWEEN 8 TO 12 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 115 PM EST SATURDAY...
SHOWER COVERAGE HAS DIMINISHED AND MOST SITES HAVE IMPROVED TO
VFR CIGS NEAR 3500-5000 FT (BLF NEAR MVFR). EXPECTING SOME
EVENING/OVERNIGHT LOWERING MAINLY INTO MVFR CIGS FOR MOST SITES
TONIGHT WITH POSSIBLE LOWER CIGS AT DAN AND BLF. SOME INITIAL
AFTERNOON WEST GUSTS 16-24 KTS SHOULD DECREASE BY LATE
AFTERNOON AND BE LIGHT NW TO NE OVERNIGHT, THEN INCREASE OUT OF
THE WEST FOR SUNDAY TO GENERALLY 20-24 KTS. SKIES SHOULD BE
CLEARING OUT BY 15Z SUNDAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK
THE NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES TUE-WED WITH RAIN CHANCES AND SUB- VFR
CONDITIONS.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...WP/AB
NEAR TERM...AB
SHORT TERM..NMF
LONG TERM...NMF
AVIATION...AB/WP
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