179
FXUS61 KRNK 090600
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
200 AM EDT THU OCT 9 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE INTO THE REGION, BRINGING
COOLER TEMPERATURES, CLEAR SKIES, AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH
SATURDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE CAROLINA
COASTLINE OVER THE WEEKEND, WHICH COULD BRING CLOUDS BACK INTO
THE REGION, ALONG WITH A FEW RAIN SHOWERS. DRY CONDITIONS RETURN
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 200 AM EDT THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) PATCHY FROST POSSIBLE IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS THIS MORNING.
FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM.
2) FREEZE WATCH FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING.
MUCH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE SETTLING IN THIS MORNING,
WITH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA IN THE 30S AND 40S. A FROST
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 9 AM FOR GREENBRIER AND BATH
COUNTIES. ELSEWHERE, PATCHY FROST AND FOG IS POSSIBLE. LIGHT NE
WINDS WILL LIMIT THE EXTENT OF THE FROST.
DENSE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO WEDGE IN TODAY BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. ENE WINDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT GUSTY AT TIMES. EXPECT SUNNY
SKIES, BUT COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW TO UPPER 60S.
TONIGHT, EVEN COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST, WITH PARTS OF
THE MOUNTAINS LIKELY DROPPING TO OR JUST BELOW FREEZING.
GREENBRIER AND BATH COUNTIES ARE UNDER A FREEZE WATCH FOR FRIDAY
MORNING, WHICH MAY BE UPGRADED TO A WARNING LATER TODAY. ONCE
AGAIN THE ONLY CONCERN WILL BE A LIGHT ENE WINDS WHICH COULD
KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED ENOUGH TO NOT REACH FREEZING.
CONFIDENCE IN THE NEAR TERM IS MODERATE.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 1230 AM EDT THURSDAY...
KEY POINTS:
1. TEMPERATURES TRENDING MILDER EACH DAY.
2. NORTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA MAY RECEIVE RAIN OVER
THE WEEKEND.
A LOOK AT THE 8 OCT 00Z NCEP ENSEMBLE MEAN 500MB GEOPOTENTIAL
HEIGHTS SHOWS FOR FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT A BROAD RIDGE OVER CENTRAL
AND SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKE REGION, A GENERAL AREA OF TROUGHINESS
IS EXPECTED ALONG THE SE US COAST, AND A DEEP CLOSED LOW IS
EXPECTED TO BE JUST OFF THE OR COAST. FOR SATURDAY/SATURDAY
NIGHT, THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES DEEPENS A BIT
AND CLOSES OFF AS IT CROSSES INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO. ITS
ASSOCIATED TROUGH AXIS IS EXPECTED TO CROSS OUR REGION. A
GENERAL AREA OF TROUGHINESS CONTINUES OVER THE SE US. THE CLOSED
LOW OFF THE OR COAST IS EXPECTED TO OPEN INTO A PROGRESSIVE
LONGWAVE TROUGH AND MOVE OVER WESTERN CONUS. THE RIDGING IN THE
CENTER OF THE COUNTRY WEAKENS. FOR SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT, THE LOW
OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO IS EXPECTED TO STALL AND OPEN AGAIN INTO A
WAVE OVER PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES AND THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGIONS. THE WESTERN CONUS LONGWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO TREND
BROADER WITH ITS AXIS SHIFTING TO OVER MT/ID/UT/AZ. THE RIDGE
BECOMES CONFINED TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
AT THE SURFACE, FOR FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
CENTERED OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. ITS ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS IS
EXPECTED TO EXTEND WESTWARD INTO OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTH ALONG
THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS. LOW PRESSURE WILL BE OVER NORTHERN
MN, WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
STATES. FOR SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT, THE MN LOW IS EXPECTED TO
HAVE MOVED EAST ACROSS MI AND WEAKENED AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE
RIDGE OVER NEW ENGLAND. THIS SAME RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO HOLD
FAST, EXTENDING FROM NEW ENGLAND SOUTHWEST INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE
COAST OF THE CAROLINAS. FOR SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT, THE RIDGE AXIS
IS EXPECTED TO HOLD FAST. THE LOW OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS
IS EXPECTED TO HEAD NORTH AND BE OFF THE VA/NC COAST BY THE
EARLY EVENING. A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURES AND ASSOCIATED N-S
ORIENTED FRONTS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL CONUS.
A LOOK AT THE 8 OCT 12Z NAEFS ENSEMBLE SITUATIONAL AWARENESS
DATA SHOWS 850MB TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY AROUND +7C TO +8C
ORIENTED NE-SW ACROSS THE REGION. FOR SATURDAY, VALUES TREND
UPWARD WITH A RANGE AROUND +9C TO +10C, NE-SW. ON SUNDAY, THE
UPWARD TREND CONTINUES WITH A RANGE OF +10C TO +11C, NE-SW.
THE ABOVE WEATHER PATTERNS OFFERS THE FOLLOWING FORECAST. AS WE
HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND, OUR REGION WILL BE NEAR THE
INTERSECTION OF THE INFLUENCE OF A PERSISTENT RIDGE, BUT ALSO
INCREASING INFLUENCE FOR LOW PRESSURE HEADING NORTH JUST OFF THE
EAST COAST. THE QUESTION WILL BE THE WESTWARD EXPANSE OF
ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION INTO AT LEAST EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA. THE ADVANCE EASTWARD OF A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH
JUST NORTH OF OUR REGION, COULD ADDITIONALLY ADD MORE NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE AREA INTO PRECIPITATION CHANCES BY SUNDAY ON
SUNDAY NIGHT. REGARDLESS OF THE DEGREE OF INTERACTION WITH THE
COASTAL LOW REGARDING PRECIPITATION, FLOW AROUND BOTH THE RIDGE
AND THE LOW WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
CONFIDENCE IN THE EXPECTED TEMPERATURE TREND IS HIGH. CONFIDENCE
IN THE DEGREE OF PRECIPITATION IMPACTING PORTIONS OF OUR AREA
IS LOW.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 1230 AM EDT THURSDAY...
KEY POINTS:
1. GENERALLY DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD.
2. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
A LOOK A THE 8 OCT 00Z NCEP ENSEMBLE MEAN 500MB GEOPOTENTIAL
HEIGHTS SHOWS FOR MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH/LOW
IS EXPECTED TO HEAD NORTHEAST INTO NEW ENGLAND. A LONGWAVE
TROUGH OVER WESTERN CONUS STALLS ACROSS ITS SOUTHERN EXTENT, AND
PROGRESSES EASTWARD AT ITS NORTHERN EXTENT. THE RESULT IS
EXPECTED TO BE A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED POSITIVELY TILTED FEATURE.
RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO BUILD NORTH INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI AND
LOWER OHIO VALLEYS. FOR TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT, A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO EXPAND NORTHWARD AND EASTWARD ACROSS MUCH
OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST US. A LONGWAVE TROUGH REMAINS
STALLED OVER WESTERN CONUS. FOR WEDNESDAY, BROAD RIDGING
CONTINUES OVER MOST OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST US. A
LONGWAVE TROUGH REMAINS STALLED OVER WESTERN CONUS. A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER NEAR ND.
AT THE SURFACE, FOR MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT, A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS GENERALLY IN PLACE, EXTENDING FROM SOUTHEAST
CANADA, SOUTHWEST TO ALONG THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS,
ALTHOUGH WEAKENED A BIT. THANKS CAN BE OFFERED TO THE GREAT
LAKES SHORTWAVE TROUGH POTENTIALLY MERGING WITH THE LOW IN THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. LOW PRESSURE OFF THE VA/NC COAST IS EXPECTED
TO SHIFT GENERALLY NORTHEAST, AGAIN POTENTIALLY MERGING WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE EAST TO THE JAMES BAY AREA WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
CURVING SOUTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES. FOR
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT, A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BE
CENTERED OVER THE APPALACHIANS. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED FOR
WEDNESDAY.
A LOOK AT THE 8 OCT 12Z NAEFS ENSEMBLE SITUATIONAL AWARENESS
DATA SHOWS 850MB TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY RANGING FROM +11C TO
+12C, ORIENTED NE-SW. FOR TUESDAY, VALUES TREND UPWARD TO +12C
TO +13C, ORIENTED N-S. VALUES COOL SLIGHTLY FOR WEDNESDAY WITH A
RANGE OF +10C TO +12C, NE-SW.
THE ABOVE WEATHER PATTERNS OFFERS THE FOLLOWING FORECAST. AS THE
COASTAL LOW EXITS NORTHEAST, THE RIDGE OVER THE REGION IS
EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN. OTHER THAN PERHAPS SOME DEPARTING RAIN
EARLY MONDAY, THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS LOOKING DRY.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL.
CONFIDENCE IN THE ABOVE WEATHER SCENARIO IS MODERATE TO HIGH.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 200 AM EDT THURSDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. WE MAY SEE
SOME BRIEF FOG AT LWB EARLY THIS MORNING. ENE WIND GUSTS LOOK TO
PICK UP TODAY DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS,
WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 15-20 KNOTS POSSIBLE. WINDS LOOK TO
DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER BECOMING MORE LIKELY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN WIDESPREAD VFR. WITH A DRIER AIR MASS, FOG DEVELOPMENT
SHOULD BECOME LESS OF A CONCERN.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ020.
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
VAZ020.
NC...NONE.
WV...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ507-508.
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
WVZ507-508.
SYNOPSIS...BMG/SH
NEAR TERM...SH
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...SH
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