582
FXUS61 KRNK 071026
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
626 AM EDT MON SEP 7 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
LOWERED POPS FOR MONDAY ACROSS NW NORTH CAROLINA, AND REDUCED
DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
AVIATION FORECAST UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
1) HEAT BUILDS AGAIN MID TO LATE WEEK BUT NOT AS HOT AS LAST
WEEK. A CHANCE OF STORMS THU-SAT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: HEAT BUILDS AGAIN MID TO LATE WEEK BUT NOT AS
HOT AS LAST WEEK. A CHANCE OF STORMS THU-SAT.
TODAY, A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ADVECT DRIER AIR
LOOKS TO SETTLE FURTHER INTO THE MID- ATLANTIC STATES AND THE
SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL EFFECTIVELY CUT OFF ANY PRECIPITATION
CHANCES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK. TEMPERATURES ALSO LOOK
TO MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL VALUES
THROUGH TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH KEEPS THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE THAT LED TO LAST WEEKS HEAT WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS
TO OUR WEST THROUGH THIS PERIOD. BY WEDNESDAY; HOWEVER, THE
RIDGE LOOKS TO SLIDE BACK EAST, AND TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
INCREASE TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES ONCE AGAIN AS 500MB HEIGHTS
INCREASE TO AROUND 594DM. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO TEMPERATURES ABOUT
5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT LOOKS TO APPROACH THE REGION BY THE LATE
THURSDAY/ EARLY FRIDAY TIMEFRAME; HOWEVER, THE EXACT TIMING OF
THIS FRONT IS STILL UNCERTAIN. A PASSAGE OF THE FRONT DURING THE
EARLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WOULD LEAD TO A HIGHER CHANCE FOR
SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA; HOWEVER, A PASSAGE LATE IN THE
EVENING AND DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO FRIDAY MORNING WOULD
LEAD TO LESS OF A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. THIS FRONT LOOKS TO
STALL ACROSS THE CAROLINAS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS IT BECOMES
PARALLEL WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW, WHICH WILL KEEP SHOWER
CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS FRONT WILL BE
THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES
LOOK TO COOL OFF ONCE AGAIN TO NEAR TO JUST ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF THE YEAR BY NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
MAINLY VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE THIS MORNING, THOUGH
CIGS ARE IN LOW VFR RANGE DUE TO SOME LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE
AREA. VFR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS AT DAN/LYH/ROA, WITH CLOUDS SLOWLY BREAKING UP THROUGH
THE MID MORNING HOURS TODAY. BLF IS CURRENTLY IN VFR, AND WILL
LIKELY REMAIN THERE THROUGH MID- MORNING, WHEN CLOUDS SCATTER
OUT. LWB IS CURRENTLY FOGGED IN, AND WILL LIKELY LIFT BACK TO
VFR CONDITIONS BY THE 13-14 UTC TIMEFRAME.
BY 15Z, ALL TERMINALS WILL BE IN VFR, WITH A QUIET DAY AHEAD. SKIES
REMAIN SCATTERED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY, WITH WINDS AROUND 5-10 KNOTS
AND GUSTS UNDER 15 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON. VFR CONTINUES THROUGH THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL PREDOMINANTLY REMAIN OUT OF
THE EAST/NORTHEAST TODAY.
CONFIDENCE IN THE ABOVE FORECAST IS HIGH.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK,
KEEPING QUIET WEATHER AND VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS IN PLACE THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING, OUTSIDE OF SOME MORNING VALLEY/RIVER FOG AT LWB
AND POSSIBLY BCB. THURSDAY AFTERNOON, A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
AREA, BRINGING SHOWER/STORM CHANCES EACH DAY INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND AS THE FRONT STALLS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...EB
AVIATION...EB/JCB
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