062
FXUS61 KRNK 051421
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1021 AM EDT THU JUN 5 2025
SYNOPSIS
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK INTO THE CAROLINAS TODAY BRINGING CLOUDS
AND A FEW RAIN SHOWERS TO THE AREA. A FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST ON FRIDAY AND STALL OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN UNSETTLED WEATHER INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH A DAILY CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A
STRONGER FRONT WILL ARRIVE DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK,
FOLLOWED BY A DRIER AIRMASS.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 1000 AM EDT THURSDAY...
NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE THIS MORNING TO THE FORECAST. RAIN
SHOWERS SEEM TO BE COMBATING DRY AIR THIS MORNING ALONG THE CWA
BORDER IN NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD PUSH
NORTH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT.
IT IS UNLIKELY THAT THESE SHOWERS EXTEND NORTH OF THE DANVILLE
AREA TODAY AS THE SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST
THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
KEY MESSAGES:
1) A FEW RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE MORNING, MAINLY ACROSS NORTH
CAROLINA.
2) GRADUALLY CLEARING CONDITIONS BY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
A WEAK SURFACE LOW IS CURRENTLY CENTERED ALONG THE GEORGIA
COAST. IT WILL SLOWLY TRACK NORTH THROUGH THE MORNING AND MOVE
INTO THE CAROLINAS BY DAYBREAK. AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN WILL MOVE
INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHERN VIRGINIA
AHEAD OF THE LOW, BUT OVERALL COVERAGE OF RAIN LOOKS SPOTTY AT
BEST. RAIN CHANCE REMAIN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHERN
VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA, WITH LITTLE TO NO RAIN ALONG OR
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
AN APPROACHING FRONT FROM THE WEST MAY BRING A FEW AREAS OF
SHOWERS OR AN ISOLATED STORM TO THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS LATER THIS
EVENING, BUT COVERAGE OF THESE WILL ALSO REMAIN VERY ISOLATED.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL REMAIN WARM IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S UNDER
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MILD...IN THE THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 300 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
1) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PERIOD IS BECOMING MORE LIKELY FOR FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY DUE TO PASSING COLD FRONTS AND SHORTWAVES. WHILE THERE IS
SOME DISAGREEMENT ON THE EXACT NUMBER, SEVERAL SHORTWAVES ARE
EXPECTED TO PASS FROM WEST TO EAST TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC IN THE
NEXT FEW DAYS TO PROVIDE MULTIPLE OPPORTUNITIES FOR PRECIPITATION.
THE FIRST SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH LATE FRIDAY AND
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE COLD FRONT THAT HAS
STALLED OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY WILL LIKELY PASS THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND BRING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA.
RELATIVELY HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS THIS FRONT, BUT WILL BE
CONSIDERABLY SQUISHED BETWEEN THE FRONT THAT JUST PAST AND ANOTHER
FRONT THAT APPROACHES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES AND DEW
POINTS WILL NOT CHANGE TOO MUCH AFTER THE FIRST FRONT, SO CONDITIONS
WILL STILL BE RELATIVELY WARM AND MOIST ON SUNDAY AS ANOTHER SHORT
WAVE PASSES THROUGH. FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY ALL ARE SUPPORTIVE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BUT SATURDAY CURRENTLY LOOKS THE MORE
FAVORABLE DAY FOR SEVERE WEATHER DUE TO THE FRONT'S PASSAGE, DECENT
CAPE, AND STRONGER SHEAR. EVEN SO, A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR FRIDAY BY THE SPC DUE TO A WIND THREAT FROM A
POTENTIAL MCS. IN REGARDS TO RAINFALL AMOUNTS, TOTAL PRECIPITATION
VARIES BY LOCATION BUT RANGES TO ABOUT 0.25-0.75 INCHES FOR MOST OF
THE FORECAST AREA WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS AT ELEVATED AREAS.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 300 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
1) ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM COULD BRING AN ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION
CHANCE NEXT WEEK
A SECOND COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST APPROACHES AND MAY PASS
THROUGH TO PROVIDE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR
THE REGION. THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL COINCIDE WITH A 500MB TROUGH
DIPPING SOUTHWARD WITH THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE TROUGH AXIS GRAZING
THE MID-ATLANTIC. THE COLD FRONT WILL ONLY MAKE A MINOR DENT IN AIR
TEMPERATURES AS HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 70S AND 80S FOR MOST
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD IN SPITE OF THE FRONT. DEW POINTS AS WELL ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO FLUCTUATE MUCH AND BE IN THE 50S AND 60S AREAWIDE. A
LARGE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL FOLLOW THE COLD FRONT AND
WILL BE IN THE CENTRAL CONUS BEFORE MOVING EASTWARD AND TOWARD THE
ATLANTIC BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 645 AM EDT THURSDAY...
MOSTLY VFR THIS MORNING, BUT POCKETS OF MVFR VSBY ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS. LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS TODAY WILL
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE CLOUD COVER AND AREAS OF RAIN, MAINLY ACROSS
NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA. CONDITIONS IMPROVE
LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE LOW PUSHES EAST INTO THE
ATLANTIC.
AREAS OF FOG POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND
RIVER VALLEYS IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
DAILY CHANCE OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MONDAY COULD
BRING PERIODS OF SUB-VFR, ALONG WITH PATCHY VALLEY FOG EACH
MORNING.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...BMG
NEAR TERM...BMG/EB
SHORT TERM...CG
LONG TERM...CG
AVIATION...BMG
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