164
FXUS61 KRNK 260746
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
346 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS IN PLACE TODAY FOR AREAS
SOUTH OF I-64.
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
FOR THE EASTERN PIEDMONT.
KEY MESSAGES
KEY MESSAGE 1: FLASH FLOODING RISK INCREASED FOR TODAY,
CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2: RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THANKS TO A STALLED FRONT, DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED LATE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: FLASH FLOODING RISK INCREASED FOR TODAY,
CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY.
THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR MOST OF OUR AREA TODAY, GENERALLY SOUTH
OF I-64. AFTER YESTERDAY'S HEAVY RAINFALL, WHERE SOME LOCATIONS
PICKED UP 4-6", ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO FLASH
FLOODING. DESPITE THE DROUGHT, RECENT RAINS HAVE BEGUN TO
SATURATE THE TOP LAYER OF SOIL, AND HAVE CAUSED RIVERS AND
STREAMS TO RISE BACK TO NORMAL LEVELS. THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS
VIRTUALLY UNCHANGED FROM YESTERDAY, WHICH COULD LEAD TO ANOTHER
ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL WHERE SHOWERS/STORMS FORM THIS
AFTERNOON. CAM MODELS INDICATE SOME TRAINING OF STORMS IS
POSSIBLE YET AGAIN, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN WHAT LOCATION
THIS MAY OCCUR.
IN ADDITION TO THE RECENT RAINS, VERY HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT IS
PRESENT ACROSS THE AREA, WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND
1.5-2.0". THIS IS DUE TO TROPICAL MOISTURE BEING PULLED INTO
THE AREA FROM THE BERMUDA HIGH IN THE ATLANTIC AND A DISTURBANCE
ALONG THE GULF COAST. ANY SHOWERS/STORMS WILL HAVE EFFICIENT
RAINFALL WITH HIGH RAIN RATES OF 3-4" PER HOUR AT TIMES. SHOULD
THESE EFFICIENT STORMS TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREA, THEN RAIN
TOTALS AGAIN COULD BE SEVERAL INCHES IN THOSE LOCATIONS. IF
TRAINING STORMS OCCUR OVER THE SAME AREAS AS YESTERDAY, THEN
FLASH FLOODING WOULD BE MUCH MORE LIKELY. URBAN, LOW-LYING, AND
FLOOD-PRONE AREAS WILL BE THE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLOODING.
THE FLOODING RISK CONTINUES ON WEDNESDAY AS A STATIONARY FRONT
REMAINS STALLED ACROSS THE AREA, WITH AN AREA-WIDE MARGINAL RISK
FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL CURRENTLY IN PLACE. SHOULD HEAVY RAINFALL
HAPPEN TODAY, THIS RISK COULD BE UPGRADED.
KEY MESSAGE 2: RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THANKS TO A STALLED FRONT, DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED LATE WEEK.
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN REMAINS THE SAME, AS A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
AREA. THIS CONTINUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH
SHOWERS/STORMS LIKELY EACH AFTERNOON, WITH LINGERING SHOWERS AT
NIGHT. OVERCAST SKIES WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL,
DESPITE THE SOUTHERLY FLOW. THIS SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR A
SOUTHERLY MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TO MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA,
INTERACTING WITH THE STALLED FRONT AND ENHANCING RAINFALL
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THE FLASH FLOODING RISK WILL CONTINUE, AND SEVERE WEATHER IS
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE EASTERN PIEDMONT, AS AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A
MARGINAL RISK HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE EASTERN PIEDMONT ON
WEDNESDAY, WITH ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AS THE THREAT. CURRENT
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW AMPLE CAPE AND MODEST LAPSE RATES, WHICH
SUPPORT STRONG STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS.
BY THURSDAY, A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FINALLY PUSHES THE
STALLED FRONT SOUTH OF OUR AREA. WHILE THIS WILL ALLOW SKIES TO
CLEAR OUT SOME, RAIN CHANCES WILL STILL CONTINUE, BUT BE
ISOLATED IN COVERAGE WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR OUR SOUTHERN AREAS
SOUTH OF US-460. MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND DRIER FOR THE LATE
WEEK, WHICH COULD LOWER POPS IN FUTURE FORECASTS. THE DRIER
WEATHER LASTS INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES THE AREA.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
FLIGHT CONDITIONS HAVE BOUNCED AROUND OVERNIGHT, WITH LOW CIGS
KEEPING MOST AREAS SUB-VFR, ASIDE FROM BLF. PATCHY FOG IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE, THOUGH THE ONLY TERMINALS WITH DENSE FOG
HAVE BEEN DAN/LWB, THOUGH IT REMAINS PATCHY, AND WILL LIKELY
VARY THROUGH MID-MORNING. CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER AT MOST
TERMINALS TO LIFR HEIGHTS, ALSO LASTING THROUGH MID-MORNING,
WITH IFR ELSEWHERE. SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE MOSTLY BROKEN UP, BUT
DRIZZLE WITH OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN WILL PERSIST. RAIN BECOMES
LESS LIKELY ALONG/EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE DURING THE LATTER PART
OF THE MORNING.
THIS AFTERNOON, CIGS RISE TO MVFR, AS SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOP
ONCE AGAIN, LIKELY AFFECTING ALL TERMINALS AT TIMES. RAIN
CHANCES CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING, FINALLY LOWERING AFTER 02Z
WEDNESDAY, WITH MVFR/VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA.
PATCHY FOG WILL ONCE AGAIN RETURN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD,
THOUGH AN OCCASIONAL STRONG GUST IS POSSIBLE IN ANY STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP SUB-VFR FLIGHT
CONDITIONS IN PLACE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH REPEATED ROUNDS
OF SHOWERS/STORMS AND OVERCAST SKIES. SEVERE STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY FOR DAN/LYH WITH DAMAGING WINDS AS THE
THREAT. FINALLY BY THURSDAY, THE STALLED FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF
THE AREA, WITH HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTH MOVING IN. WHILE
SHOWER/STORMS MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE, THEY WILL BE ISOLATED AND
PRIMARILY LIMITED TO OUR SOUTHERN LOCATIONS, SUCH AS DAN. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR MOSTLY VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO THE
REMAINDER OF THE TERMINALS. VFR WILL BE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE,
THOUGH FOG REMAINS POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JCB
AVIATION...JCB
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