086
FXUS61 KRNK 161038
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
638 AM EDT TUE JUN 16 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
12Z AVIATION UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
1) FRONT TO BRING SHOWERS/STORMS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. SOME
STORMS THURSDAY COULD BE SEVERE.
2) DRY WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: SHOWER/STORM CHANCES INCREASE THU-FRI
AFTER A MAINLY DRY TUE-WED, ANOTHER FRONT WILL WORK IN FROM THE
WEST. WE ARE WATCHING THE WESTERN GULF WHERE POTENTIAL TROPICAL
SYSTEM MAY MOVE TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF THIS FRONT TO
BRING MORE MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. MODELS TEND TO LEAN TOWARD
THE HEAVIER RAINFALL IN THE LOWER MS VALLEY/TN VALLEY AND WEST
OF THE APPALACHIANS.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THURSDAY. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARD WITH THIS
ACTIVITY.
VERY STRONG WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW WILL RESIDE NORTH OF
OUR AREA THURSDAY. NEVERTHELESS, INTENSE DEEP-LAYER FLOW WILL
STILL SUPPORT STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS WITH CONVECTION
THROUGH EARLY EVENING. RICHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE IN
PLACE, FOSTERING STRONG DESTABILIZATION. CLUSTERS AND LINE
SEGMENTS WILL POSE A RISK FOR MAINLY DAMAGING GUSTS.
KEY MESSAGE 2: DRY WEEKEND BUT MORE STORM CHANCES EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS THE FRONT SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. MODELS
AGREE ON A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE MID-MS
VALLEY HEADING INTO MONDAY SWINGING THROUGH THE MOUNTAINS EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THIS FEATURE WITH THE FRONT AND GOOD MOISTURE
ADVECTION SHOULD PROVIDE ANOTHER OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS, BUT LIKE PREVIOUS SYSTEMS, NOT EVERYONE WILL GET RAIN,
BUT THOSE WHO DO COULD GET A DECENT DOWNPOUR.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD, EXCEPT STARTING OUT WITH VLIFR FOG AT
LWB, WHICH WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY 13-14Z.
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS IN VICINITY OF
BLF/BCB THIS AFTERNOON BUT APPEARS VERY ISOLATED. A CU FIELD IS
WILL DEVELOP BY MIDDAY WITH SCT/BKN CIGS IN THE 4-8KFT RANGE.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT/CALM THROUGH MID MORNING, THEN MORE SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST 5-10KTS THIS AFTERNOON.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK
WILL HAVE VFR INTO WEDNESDAY, THEN FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BRING
SOME POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/STORMS THU-FRI WITH SUB-VFR POSSIBLE.
SATURDAY AT THE MOMENT TRENDING DRY AND VFR OUTSIDE ANY FOG IN
THE MORNING.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...PM/WP
AVIATION...RCS/WP
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