408
FXUS61 KRNK 211822
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
122 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2025
SYNOPSIS
A WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH TODAY. THIS WILL BRING SHOWERS TO MOST
OF THE AREA, THOUGH BEST CHANCES WILL BE WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE. SHOWERS LINGER THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY, THEN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK, KEEPING THE WEATHER QUIET. ANOTHER LARGER
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK,
WITH A BIG COOLDOWN EXPECTED FOR THANKSGIVING AND BEYOND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 115 PM EST FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
1) INTERMITTENT RAIN THROUGH TONIGHT WITH GRADUALLY DRYING
CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY.
2) WARM, ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
A WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH THROUGH
TONIGHT AND WILL BECOME SITUATED ACROSS THE MD/VA BORDER. RAIN
SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF TODAY, WITH
PERHAPS A SLIGHT UPTICK IN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT AS SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. BETTER DYNAMICS MOVE
TO OUR NORTH, SO HEAVIER RAIN SHOULD ALSO REMAIN NORTH. HOWEVER,
A FEW HEAVIER DOWNPOURS STILL POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT.
HAVE LOWERED AFTERNOON HIGHS SEVERAL DEGREES AS IT APPEARS THAT
CLOUDS ARE NOT CLEARING AND WITH LACK OF SOLAR HEATING...ESPECIALLY
THIS TIME OF YEAR...GIVEN THE SUN ANGLE, HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON
LOOK UNLIKELY TO REACH THE MID OR UPPER 60S. TONIGHT, VERY MILD
TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S.
CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE ON SATURDAY. THE MORNING
HOURS COULD STILL FEATURE SOME PASSING SHOWERS, ALONG WITH
CLOUDY SKIES, BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER BY
THE AFTERNOON, RESULTING IN A VERY WARM ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. LOW TO MID 70S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND MID TO
UPPER 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 1200 PM EST FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGE: DRY POST-FRONTAL CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND AND MONDAY.
WE'LL SEE A TRANSITION TO A DRY AND PLEASANT RIDGE DOMINATED REGIME
AS HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS IN ON THE HEELS OF A DEPARTING FRONT
LATER SATURDAY. A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE BEHIND THE MAIN FRONT MAY
ALLOW FOR SOME LINGERING CLOUD COVERAGE SATURDAY NIGHT THOUGH IT IS
MORE MOISTURE STARVED IN SUBSIDENT FLOW SO NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIP
WITH THE FEATURE. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ARE ON
TAP FOR SUNDAY WITH GENERALLY HIGHS REACHING THE LOW TO MID 60S IN
THE PIEDMONT AND MID TO UPPER 50S FOR THE MOUNTAINS. MONDAY SHOULD
BE MOSTLY TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH TEMPS MODERATING EVEN A BIT WARMER
UNDER THE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE THOUGH THIS QUICKLY ADVECTS EASTWARD
AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH TO THE WEST BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT AS PRECIP
CHANCES START TO EDGE EASTWARD INTO THE CWA.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 1200 PM EST FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGE: RAIN CHANCES RETURN WITH THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM
FOR MIDWEEK.
UPPER LONGWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO TRACK NEWD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND OHIO VALLEYS BY TUESDAY LEAVING AN ELONGATED MOISTURE AXIS
AND FRONT DRAPED SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION, WHICH WILL PROVIDE THE
NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN. MOST OF THE ENERGY AND DYNAMICS LOOK TO STAY
CONFINED NORTH OF THE AREA SO PRECIP SHOULD MAINLY RESULT AS PERIODS
OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN AND NOTHING HEAVY OR MUCH ORGANIZED
IS EXPECTED. GUIDANCE VARIES IN THE EVOLUTION OF THIS FEATURE
WITH THE TIMING OF EASTWARD PROGRESSION, THOUGH IT IS POSSIBLE
IT COULD STALL INTO WEDNESDAY SO HAVE LINGERING CHANCES OF POPS
BUT THE GREATEST CHANCE LOOKS TO BE MAINLY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. IF IT DOES STALL, THEN PERSISTENT SW FETCH MAY ALLOW FOR
SOME WEAK INSTABILITY TO NOSE INTO PARTS OF THE PIEDMONT SO
CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 115 PM EST FRIDAY...
CONTINUED CLOUD COVER AND PASSING RAIN SHOWERS HAS RESULTED IN A
WIDE RANGE OF FLIGHT CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE REGION. MORE IFR
THAN VFR AT THE MOMENT, BUT THIS HAS BEEN RATHER VARIABLE WITH
MULTIPLE TERMINALS MOVING BACK AND FORTH BETWEEN VFR AND IFR.
THIS TREND TO CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT, BUT LIKELY WILL TREND
MORE CONSISTENTLY IFR WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT
AND LOWERING CIGS. A GRADUAL RETURN TO VFR THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING AS CLOUDS LIFT AND RAIN COMES TO AN END. POCKETS OF MVFR
COULD LINGER ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.
WINDS REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT, REMAINING 10KTS OR LESS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN, WITH ALL TERMINALS BACK TO VFR BY
SATURDAY MID- AFTERNOON. DRY AND QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH
LATE TUESDAY, WHEN THE NEXT LARGE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA,
BRINGING LIKELY SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...BMG
NEAR TERM...BMG
SHORT TERM...AB
LONG TERM...AB
AVIATION...BMG
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