756
FXUS61 KRNK 052301
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
701 PM EDT WED AUG 5 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED FORECAST GIVEN RECENT GUIDANCE.
AVIATION FORECAST WAS ALSO UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
1) UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THIS WEEK
AND INTO UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH MARGINAL RISKS OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR ALL
OR PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF
THIS WEEK AND INTO UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH DAILY CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH MARGINAL RISKS OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL FOR ALL OR PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
AS THE PREVIOUS UPPER CUTOFF LOW HAS DAMPENED INTO THE LARGE
SCALE FLOW ALOFT THE AREA WILL REMAIN BETWEEN THE BERMUDA HIGH
OFF TO THE EAST AND A UPPER LONGWAVE TROUGH TO THE WEST. THIS
SETUP ALLOWS FOR AN ONGOING SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FETCH
MAINTAINING AMPLE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ADVECTING NORTHWARD. WITH
NO SIGN OF ANY MAIN FEATURE OR WAVE TRAVERSING ACROSS THE AREA,
THE FORCING MECHANISM FOR CONVECTION WILL LARGELY BE DAYTIME
HEATING AND OROGRAPHIC LIFT KEEPING THE GREATEST CHANCES ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS EACH DAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. HIGH
PWATS IN THE 1.5 TO 2.0 INCH RANGE WILL SUPPORT HYDROMETEOR
LOADING WITHIN SHOWERS AND STORMS TO BE EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS
AND ALLOW FOR ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL AS WELL. SEE THE
HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.
A WEAK SHORTWAVE ALONG MORE ZONAL FLOW IS PROGGED TO APPROACH
THE AREA SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT THAT MAY FOCUS MORE
WIDESPREAD OR ORGANIZED CONVECTION, OTHERWISE CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS DECREASE SOME FOR SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK
THOUGH DEVELOPMENT IS STILL POSSIBLE MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING SHOULD CONTINUE
TO DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS THE SUN STARTS TO GO
DOWN. IF THESE STORMS MOVE OVER OR WITHIN A CLOSE DISTANCE TO A
TERMINAL, THEY MAY LEAD TO BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR TO IFR
RESTRICTIONS. OVERNIGHT, CONFIDENCE IS DECREASING THAT IFR TO
LIFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP AT MOST TERMINALS, WITH ONLY BCB AND LWB
HAVING THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE OF DEVELOPING THESE RESTRICTIONS
OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. ANY RESTRICTIONS
THAT DO DEVELOP LOOK TO DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE IN THE
12-14 UTC TIMEFRAME. WINDS LOOK TO BECOME SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AT
AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS, BUT WILL GUST INTO THE 15-20 KNOT RANGE
AT LYH AND DAN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ON
THURSDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED FOR
TOMORROW MAINLY FOR MOUNTAIN TERMINALS, WITH VCTS ADDED FOR ALL
TERMINALS WEST OF ROA STARTING AT ROUGHLY 18 UTC AND GOING TO 00
UTC.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
FORECAST PERSISTENCE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND WEEKEND
WITH MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS CONTRIBUTING TO DAILY THREAT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. OVERNIGHT FOG DEVELOPMENT ALSO EXPECTED WITH
GREATEST CONCENTRATION WITHIN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.
HYDROLOGY
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. REPEATED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AMIDST A
MOIST AIR MASS WILL PERSIST THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK.
NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS FOR ANY PARTICULAR
LOCATION.
PWAT VALUES EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE 1.50" TO 2.00"
RANGE. HIGH AMBIENT MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE VERY EFFICIENT
RAINFALL RATES WHICH COULD EXCEED 2-3 INCHES PER HOUR. URBAN
AREAS AND ALONG MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN WILL BE PARTICULARLY
SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLASH FLOODING.
ANTECEDENT SOIL CONDITIONS ARE GRADUALLY TURNING WETTER ACROSS
THE AREA, BUT THERE ARE STILL CONSIDERABLE RAINFALL DEFICITS
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AB
AVIATION...AB/EB
HYDROLOGY...PM
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