707
FXUS61 KRNK 300616
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
216 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION UPDATED.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING
ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 460.
INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS TUESDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH
MOVES OVERHEAD.
OTHERWISE DRY AND WARM.
KEY MESSAGES
KEY MESSAGE 1: SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE MONDAY AND AGAIN TUESDAY
AS A COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER TROUGH MOVE THROUGH.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER. SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE MONDAY AND AGAIN
TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER TROUGH MOVE THROUGH.
THE CONUS REMAINS IN A OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN, WITH A NW U.S.
CLOSED LOW, RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS, AND ANOTHER CLOSED
LOW CENTERED NEAR HUDSON BAY, WITH ASSOCIATED TROUGHING ACROSS
MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS. A SIGNIFICANT PIECE OF ENERGY WILL
DETACH FROM THE HUDSON BAY SYSTEM AND BECOME ITS OWN UPPER LOW
SOMETIME TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE MID ATLANTIC IN
THE MID WEEK PERIOD, BEFORE EJECTING INTO THE ATLANTIC.
PREVIOUSLY MODELS HAD MOVED THIS SYSTEM OFFSHORE, BUT WITH THE
SYSTEM IN THE VICINITY, INTRODUCED MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO
THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING. THESE SHOWERS
COULD BE MORE WIDESPREAD THAN MONDAY'S SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH A SOUTHWARD MORNING COLD FRONT. BOTH DAYS,
CONVECTION MAY BE INHIBITED BY HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
ALONG WITH DRIER AIR, ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. QPF LOOKS
PRETTY LIMITED WITH BOTH THESE SETUPS, BUT TRAINING CONVECTION
OVER THE PIEDMONT MAY YIELD ISOLATED HIGHER TOTALS WHERE PWATS
EXCEED 1 INCH.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY LOOK DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY, WITH THE
NEXT SYSTEM POSSIBLY BRINGING MORE RAIN BY NEXT WEEKEND. HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE 70S FOR THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH MONDAY, WITH SOME
COOLER 60S TO LOW 70S READINGS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE
REBOUNDING LATE NEXT WEEK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S OR WARMER.
THE PIEDMONT WILL SEE MOSTLY 70S FOR HIGHS WITH 80S POSSIBLE
TODAY AND AGAIN MONDAY, AND WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THE OTHER
DAYS. BY NEXT FRIDAY INTO NEXT SATURDAY, MID TO UPPER 80S WILL
BE POSSIBLE FOR MARTINSVILLE TO LYNCHBURG AND SOUTHEAST.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL AFFECT THE REGION AT TIMES
THROUGH THE 24 HOUR VALID TAF PERIOD AS WE REMAIN IN NW FLOW
ALOFT BRINGING PERIODS OF MID LEVEL ENERGY THROUGH. MAY SEE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR OR LOWER VISIBILITIES AT LWB THIS MORNING,
BUT THIS IS LOOKING LESS LIKELY WITH DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS WIDER
THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE VFR THROUGHOUT THE TAF CYCLE.
TAFS WERE MAINLY A WIND FORECAST, WITH CALM TO LIGHT AND
VARIABLE CONDITIONS THIS MORNING TRANSITIONING TO LIGHT NE AFTER
DAY BREAK. WINDS THEN BECOME NNE FOR MOST, WITH THE EXCEPTION
BEING LYH AND DAN WITH EASTERLY WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE ATTEMPTS
TO WEDGE ALONG THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. TONIGHT, AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH
AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER SC, WE MAY SEE SOME GUSTS TO 15 KNOTS
FOR A FEW HOURS AT MOST TAF SITES BEFORE THEY DECREASE TO 5 TO 8
KNOTS OVERNIGHT.
CONFIDENCE IN THE ABOVE FORECAST IS HIGH, BUT LOWER IN FOG
DEVELOPMENT.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
BY MONDAY WHEN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP WITH THE POTENTIAL TO IMPACT ALL
SITES BUT LWB AND LYH. A FEW MORE SHRA/TSRA ARE POSSIBLE
AREAWIDE TUESDAY WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM PASSING BY OVERHEAD
COMBINED WITH DAYTIME INSTABILITY. THESE SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER
DARK.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WE WILL BE RETURN TO DRY VFR
CONDITIONS.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SH
AVIATION...SH
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