528
FXUS61 KRNK 221756
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
156 PM EDT TUE SEP 22 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
A FEW STORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG A STALLED BOUNDARY
OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
HAVE CONTINUED TO ADVERTISE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AND A FEW STORMS
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT... TRANSITIONING TO WIDESPREAD RAIN
AND DRIZZLE FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH GUSTY WINDS...
TRANSITIONING TO WIDESPREAD RAIN AND DRIZZLE FOR WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS WORKED ITS WAY BACK NORTH THIS AFTERNOON,
CURRENTLY SITUATED FROM SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA, THEN EAST
ACROSS ROANOKE AND INTO NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA. MARGINAL
SURFACE HEATING HAS OCCURRED IN THIS GENERAL AREA AND AS A
RESULT, HAVE SEEN SOME DESTABLIZATION. WITH THE FRONT NEARBY,
THIS SHOULD AID IN SUPPORTING A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE FRONT. SEVERE STORMS NOT EXPECTED,
BUT GIVEN THE PULSE-LIKE NATURE OF THE CONVECTION, A FEW BRIEF
STRONGER CELLS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
OVERNIGHT, THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL AGAIN MOVE SOUTHWARD WITH A
STRONG NORTHEAST PUSH OF COOL MARITIME AIR IN RESPONSE TO A
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OVER THE ATLANTIC. INCREASING ISENTROPIC
LIFT SHOULD RESULT IN RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT AND
INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN CANADA AND LOW PRESSURE IN THE ATLANTIC.
COOL AND DAMP CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY, SLOWLY
IMPROVING INTO FRIDAY AS FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHWESTERLY, THEN
BECOMING DRY AND MILD FOR THE WEEKEND.
HAVE CONTINUED TO LOWER TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW
GUIDANCE FOR WEDS/THU DUE TO THE PERSISTENT COLD AIR DAMMING
SIGNAL. HIGHS WILL BE BELOW AVERAGE IN THE 50S AND 60S BOTH
DAYS..FALLING INTO THE LOW 50S TO UPPER 40S OVERNIGHT.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
SUB-VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MOSTLY MVFR CIGS THIS
AFTERNOON. AFTER 00Z/8PM EXPECT A DROP EVERYWHERE TO LIFR/IFR
WITH AREAS OF FOG AND CIGS LESS THE 1KFT... ALONG WITH RAIN AND
DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AT BLF/LWB THIS AFTERNOON, BUT SHOULD
JUST SEE INCREASING RAIN COVERAGE FOR OTHER TERMINALS
OVERNIGHT.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN NORTHEASTERLY, GUSTY AT TIMES TO
20KTS ACROSS THE VIRGINIA PIEDMONT.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY EXPECT MORE LIFR/IFR STRATUS AND FOG IN A WEDGING
PATTERN WITH PERIODS OF RAIN AND DRIZZLE. WE BEGIN TO DRY OUT
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH VFR EXPECTED TO RETURN ON FRIDAY, THEN
PERSISTING INTO THE WEEKEND.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BMG
AVIATION...BMG/SH
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