714
FXUS61 KRNK 072319
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
719 PM EDT FRI AUG 7 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST, WITH DAILY SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUING THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
1) UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH NEXT WEEK. GREATEST
CHANCE FOR RAINFALL WILL BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT
FOOTHILLS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
GREATEST CHANCE FOR RAINFALL WILL BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
ADJACENT FOOTHILLS.
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS PARKED OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC THROUGH THIS WEEKEND, ALTHOUGH IT IS GRADUALLY
SQUASHED AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS OVER THE CENTRAL STATES
SHIFTS EAST. BY NEXT WEEK, WE WILL BE FURTHER ENSCONCED WITHIN
THE MEAN TROUGH AS THE MAIN STORM TRACK BUILDS SOUTH. THIS WILL
INCREASE STORM COVERAGE AND POSSIBLY A GREATER THREAT FOR MORE
ORGANIZED CONVECTION.
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND ALL OF NEXT WEEK, EXPECT DAILY SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE MAIN FORCING MECHANISMS, ESPECIALLY
THROUGH MONDAY, WILL BE DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND INTERACTION OF
THE SOUTHERLY MOISTURE FETCH WITH THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.
FOR THIS WEEKEND HOWEVER, SATURDAY LOOKS TO HAVE THE HIGHEST
CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION, WITH A SURFACE TROUGH IN
THE REGION. OVERALL THOUGH, WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
SHEAR, STORMS SHOULD BE DISORGANIZED AND ON THE WEAKER SIDE.
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE FLASH FLOODING, AND WITH SLOW STORM
MOVEMENT AND VERY EFFICIENT RAINFALL RATES, LOCATIONS THAT SEE
STORMS PERSIST FOR A LONGER DURATION COULD EXPERIENCE FLASH
FLOODING.
BETTER STORM COVERAGE LOOKS TO ARRIVE AGAIN BY MID WEEK AS AN
UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO DIP SOUTH. THIS WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHTLY
BETTER SHEAR/FORCING INTO THE REGION, THEREFORE COULD SEE A
LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE AND AN UPTICK IN SEVERE
POTENTIAL. ALTHOUGH FLASH FLOODING FROM HEAVY RAIN STILL APPEARS
TO BE THE MAIN THREAT, SOME POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS WILL
EXIST AS WELL.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE EVENING AT MOST TERMINALS. DAN MAY SEE BRIEF PERIODS OF TSRA
AND MVFR TO LIFR RESTRICTIONS AS THUNDERSTORMS IN ITS VICINITY
MOVE NEAR/OVER IT OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. OUTSIDE OF THIS, ALL
OTHER TERMINALS SHOULD REMAIN VFR. SOME MVFR TO IFR CIGS/VSBYS
LOOK TO DEVELOP AT BCB AND LWB DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
PRIOR TO SUNRISE. THESE RESTRICTIONS WILL LIKELY LIFT BY THE
12-14 UTC TIMEFRAME. RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK POSSIBLE AGAIN
ON SATURDAY AT BCB, BLF, AND LWB DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. THESE WILL LIKELY MAY LEAD TO BRIEF PERIODS OF
MVFR TO IFR RESTRICTIONS IF THEY MOVE OVER THE TERMINALS
MENTIONED ABOVE.
WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD
AT AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
FORECAST PERSISTENCE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND WEEKEND
WITH MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS CONTRIBUTING TO DAILY THREAT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. OVERNIGHT FOG DEVELOPMENT ALSO EXPECTED WITH
GREATEST CONCENTRATION WITHIN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.
HYDROLOGY
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR AREAS NEAR
THE BLUE RIDGE AND WESTWARD THE NEXT TWO DAYS, THEN FOR PARTS OF
THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS OF NC AND VA SUNDAY. REPEATED CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AMIDST A MOIST AIR MASS WILL PERSIST
THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK. NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN THE
DETAILS FOR ANY PARTICULAR LOCATION, BUT MOUNTAINS WILL
ENCOURAGE TRAINING STORMS.
PWAT VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE 1.50" TO 2.00" RANGE.
HIGH AMBIENT MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE VERY EFFICIENT RAINFALL
RATES WHICH COULD EXCEED 2-3 INCHES PER HOUR. URBAN AREAS AND
ALONG MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN WILL BE PARTICULARLY SUSCEPTIBLE TO
FLASH FLOODING, ESPECIALLY IF STORMS REPEATEDLY TRAIN OVER THE
SAME LOCATIONS.
ANTECEDENT SOIL CONDITIONS ARE GRADUALLY TURNING WETTER ACROSS
THE AREA, BUT THERE ARE STILL CONSIDERABLE RAINFALL DEFICITS
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BMG/SH
AVIATION...BMG/EB
HYDROLOGY...SH
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