670
FXUS61 KRNK 251723
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
123 PM EDT TUE AUG 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AFTERNOON AVIATION UPDATE.
RAIN CHANCES HAVE SLIGHTLY INCREASED FOR THE LATE WEEK.
KEY MESSAGES
1) QUIET AND PLEASANT WEATHER TODAY, RAIN CHANCES RETURN
LATE WEDNESDAY LASTING INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: QUIET AND PLEASANT WEATHER TODAY, RAIN CHANCES RETURN
LATE WEDNESDAY LASTING INTO THE WEEKEND.
AFTER A CHILLY START THIS MORNING WITH SOME AREAS IN THE LOW
40S, TEMPERATURES ARE REBOUNDING NICELY WITH SEASONABLE HIGHS
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON, IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC THIS
AFTERNOON, KEEPING SKIES CLEAR AND CONDITIONS DRY. THE HUMIDITY
REMAINS RELATIVELY LOW DUE TO A GENERAL NORTHERLY FLOW. THIS IS
SHORT-LIVED, AS BY LATE WEDNESDAY, THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE
INTO THE ATLANTIC, WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNING TO THE REGION.
THIS WILL CAUSE AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE, WITH DEW POINTS RISING
BACK INTO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES. A SUBTLE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ALSO TRAVERSE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON, TRIGGERING ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS TO FORM, MAINLY
ALONG/EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.
A COLD FRONT THEN APPROACHES THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON,
INCREASING STORM CHANCES THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE FRONT STALLS
ALONG THE EAST COAST. ALTHOUGH NO WASHOUT DAYS ARE EXPECTED,
SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/STORMS WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS. STORMS THAT MOVE OVER THE SAME AREAS
REPEATEDLY COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING BOTH DAYS,
ESPECIALLY IN THE PIEDMONT, WHERE THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EVENTUALLY PUSHES OFFSHORE BY SUNDAY, WITH
DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
BACK INTO THE AREA ONCE AGAIN. EARLY INDICATIONS ARE THAT
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE 80S/90S EARLY NEXT WEEK, AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. SUMMER IS NOT
QUITE OVER JUST YET.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE ACROSS ALL TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON, WITH
LIGHT WINDS, CLEAR SKIES, AND NO RAIN EXPECTED. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND FOR MOST OF
WEDNESDAY. LWB IS EXPECTED TO FOG IN AGAIN OVERNIGHT BETWEEN
06-14Z, WITH VSBY DOWN TO 1/4 MILE POSSIBLE. BCB MAY AGAIN HAVE
PATCHY FOG BETWEEN 09-12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING.
FOR WEDNESDAY, DRY CONDITIONS AND VFR LAST THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON WHEN ISOLATED STORM CHANCES RETURN, LIKELY AFTER THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND
INCREASE, WITH GUSTS UP TO 15 KNOTS POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS
AROUND MIDDAY.
CONFIDENCE IN THE ABOVE FORECAST IS HIGH.
OUTLOOK...
ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING, WHICH WOULD BRING SUB-VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS IF
IMPACTING A TERMINAL. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE FOR THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES, KEEPING STORM CHANCES
POSSIBLE AT ALL TAF SITES EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY AND
CAUSING LIKELY SUB-VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS AT TIMES. PATCHY
MORNING FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE EACH MORNING, POTENTIALLY
LOWERING VSBY TO SUB-VFR AS WELL. WHEN NOT IMPACTED BY STORMS
OR FOG, VFR IS EXPECTED. DRIER WEATHER RETURNS SUNDAY.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JCB
AVIATION...JCB
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