292  
FXUS61 KRNK 230124  
AFDRNK  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA  
924 PM EDT FRI OCT 22 2021  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
A DISTURBANCE WILL SKIRT BY TO THE NORTH TONIGHT WITH HIGH  
PRESSURE BUILDING BACK INTO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND.  
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK AS A SERIES  
OF VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES TRACK FROM WEST TO EAST  
ACROSS THE U.S.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
 
 
AS OF 920 PM EDT FRIDAY...  
 
AGAIN, NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST. HAVE MADE MINOR  
TWEAKS TO HOURLY TEMPERATURE, DEW POINT, WIND/GUSTS GRIDS BASED  
UPON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND EXPECTED TRENDS INTO EARLY  
SATURDAY MORNING. ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN GREENBRIER  
COUNTY ARE LOOKING MORE PROMISING WITH A RECENT REPORT OF LIGHT  
RAIN AT NEARBY BECKLEY, WV.  
 
AS OF 633 PM EDT FRIDAY...  
 
NO MAJOR CHANGES IN THE FORECAST AREA PLANNED FOR THIS UPDATE.  
HOWEVER, A SMALL ADJUSTMENT DELAYS ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS  
WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING, AND ALSO  
DELAYS THEIR ENDING UNTIL LATE MORNING SATURDAY. HAVE MADE MINOR  
TWEAKS TO HOURLY TEMPERATURE, DEW POINT, AND SKY COVER BASED  
UPON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND EXPECTED TRENDS THROUGH THE  
EVENING.  
 
AS OF 145 PM EDT FRIDAY...  
 
COLD FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING HAS MADE IT  
EAST OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON.  
 
QUITE A SPREAD IN TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON  
AS PERSISTENT NORTHWEST/WEST FLOW CONTINUES TO KEEP LOCATIONS  
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE UNDER STRATUS. THOSE WHO ARE LOCKED IN  
UNDER THE CLOUD COVER ARE ONLY IN THE 50S. FURTHER EAST INTO THE  
PIEDMONT, BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER HAVE ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO  
RISE INTO THE LOW 70S. EXPECT TO SEE SOME OF THE ONGOING STRATUS  
TO ERODE SOMEWHAT ALONG ITS EASTERN FRINGES LATER THIS  
AFTERNOON, BUT THINKING IT WILL BE TOO LATE FOR MUCH WARMING.  
THEREFORE, LOWERED HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON A COUPLE  
DEGREES FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.  
 
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT REINFORCING CLOUD  
COVER FOR THE WESTERN LOCATIONS. MAY HAVE A FEW SHOWERS ALONG  
THE WESTERN SLOPES IN WEST VIRGINIA, BUT THESE WILL BE LIGHT AND  
ISOLATED.  
 
SATURDAY, MORE SUN LIKELY THAN TODAY, BUT STILL MAY TAKE NEARLY  
ALL DAY TO FINALLY ERODE THE STRATUS FOR FAR SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA  
AND SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA. NO RAIN EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE  
BEGINS TO BUILD IN OVERHEAD. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES  
WARMER THAN TODAY.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
 
 
AS OF 245 PM EDT FRIDAY...  
 
OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH  
AMOUNTS OF 0.20 TO 0.50...  
 
A SHORT WAVE EMANATING FROM THE WEST COAST WILL MOVE EAST  
SPARKING CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS, THE LOW CROSSING  
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT, AND ACROSS THE OHIO  
VALLEY ON MONDAY. INCREASING SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW AHEAD OF THIS  
SYSTEM WILL BRING WARMING TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION SUNDAY AND  
MONDAY...850MB TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE +14 TO +16 DEG C  
RANGE SUNDAY, AND +16 TO +18 DEG C RANGE MONDAY. THIS WILL  
ELEVATE OUR TEMPERATURES BACK ABOVE NORMAL BY AT LEAST 10 DEG F.  
 
MAIN THREAT FOR RAIN DURING THIS PERIOD IS EXPECTED MONDAY  
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW PASSES TO OUR  
NORTH, THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTH OF THE LOW AND  
CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT. PREFRONTAL SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON, CONTINUING UP UNTIL  
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY NIGHT.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
AS OF 245 PM EDT FRIDAY..  
 
OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH  
AMOUNTS OF 0.30 TO 0.80...  
 
AN ACTIVE STORM TRACK IS FORECAST ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL U.S.  
AS THE LARGER SCALE FLOW FEATURES A DEVELOPING ANOMALOUS TROF  
OVER THE EASTERN 2/3RDS OF THE COUNTRY BY THE END OF THE WEEK.  
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF IMPACTFUL WEATHER ARE EXPECTED FOR THE WEST  
COAST (FINALLY PUTTING AN END TO THEIR LONG FIRE SEASON), ENERGY  
FROM THESE STORMS MOVING DOWNSTREAM AND CARVING OUT A LONG WAVE  
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. EVOLUTION OF THIS LARGER SCALE  
FEATURE IS GRADUALLY COMING INTO AGREEMENT ALTHOUGH LOCATION AND  
TIMING OF THE INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES MAY DIFFER WITH RESPECT TO  
WHICH MODEL YOU CONSIDER. ATTM, CONSENSUS IS FOR ANOTHER ROUND  
OF RAIN DURING LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY TIME-FRAME,  
WITH LINGERING UPSLOPE EFFECTS FROM LOW CLOUDS AND MOISTURE WEST  
OF THE BLUE RIDGE FRIDAY. ASIDE FOR AN UPTICK IN TEMPERATURE  
WEDNESDAY, PER SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT SURFACE FRONT,  
THE OVERALL TREND FOR THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND IS FOR COOLING  
AND A PROLONGED PERIOD OF CLOUDINESS.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
AS OF 715 PM EDT FRIDAY...  
 
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ALONG AND EAST OF THE  
CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THROUGH THE EXTENT OF THE VALID TAF  
PERIOD CONCLUDING 00Z/8PM SUNDAY/SATURDAY. ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS,  
A PREVAILING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN AREAS OF  
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUD COVER ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA, SOUTH  
INTO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA. SEVERAL AREAS  
WITHIN THIS REGION WILL SEE MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING THROUGH THE  
NIGHT, AND CONTINUING INTO MID-MORNING SATURDAY BEFORE  
DISSIPATING. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN  
WEST OF KLWB OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. BRIEF,  
PATCHY RIVER/MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AROUND  
DAYBREAK SATURDAY.  
 
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE NIGHT THEN FROM THE  
WEST AROUND 5 TO 10 KTS DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON ON  
SATURDAY. SOME OF THE HIGHER RIDGE TOPS MAY SEE GUSTIER  
CONDITIONS WITH 10 TO 20 KTS GUSTS POSSIBLE.  
 
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...  
 
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY MONDAY WILL  
REMAIN VFR.  
 
THREAT OF SHOWERS AND POTENTIAL SUB-VFR ARRIVES AS EARLY AS  
MONDAY AFTERNOON LASTING INTO TUESDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT MOVES  
ACROSS WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.  
 

 
   
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
VA...NONE.  
NC...NONE.  
WV...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...BMG  
NEAR TERM...BMG/DS/WP  
SHORT TERM...PM  
LONG TERM...PM  
AVIATION...BMG/DS/WP  
 
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