343
FXUS61 KRNK 021822
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
222 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED.
THE CURRENT HEAT ADVISORY CONTINUES TODAY AND INTO TOMORROW FOR
SOME AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND INTO THE SOUTHERN
SHENANDOAH VALLEY.
UPGRADED SOME COUNTIES TO AN EXTREME HEAT WARNING, WHICH IS IN
EFFECT DUE TO HEAT INDEX VALUES LIKELY EXCEEDING 110 DEGREES FOR
PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA ON FRIDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
KEY MESSAGE 1: HAZARDOUS HEAT LASTS THROUGH SUNDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2: A BREAK IN THE HEAT AND ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR
RAIN RETURN NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: HAZARDOUS HEAT LASTS THROUGH SUNDAY.
A SERIES OF VERTICALLY STACKED HIGHS OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES CONTINUE THE HEAT WAVE TODAY AND LIKELY INTO THE WEEKEND.
THE CENTER OF A LARGE 500MB RIDGE REMAINS OVER US AND BARELY
MOVES FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. HEAT INDICES IN THE MID-90S WEST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND WELL OVER 100 EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. THE
HEAT ADVISORY FOR TODAY REMAINS IN EFFECT BETWEEN UNTIL 8 PM
AND ANOTHER IS IN EFFECT TOMORROW FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM. A BULGE OF
RELATIVELY HIGHER DEW POINTS IN THE PIEDMONT WILL LIKELY RESULT
IN HEAT INDEX VALUES GREATER THAN 110 DEGREES (EVEN IN SPITE OF
MIXING) AND AN EXTREME HEAT WARNING HAS BEEN EXPANDED AND NOW
INCLUDES BUCKINGHAM, APPOMATTOX, CAMPBELL, CHARLOTTE,
PITTSYLVANIA, AND HALIFAX COUNTIES. IT IS LIKELY THAT SIMILAR
HAZARDS WILL BE IN EFFECT SATURDAY, JULY 4, AND SUNDAY. THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PATTERN BEGINS TO DECAY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WHILE IT WILL STILL BE HOT, TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE MID 80S TO MID/UPPER 90S. TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
TEMPERATURES DROP EVEN FURTHER INTO THE LOW 80S TO LOW 90S.
THE PUBLIC IS REMINDED TO TAKE THIS WEATHER VERY SERIOUSLY.
ESPECIALLY SINCE IT IS A HOLIDAY WEEKEND, PLEASE MAKE SURE YOU
ARE SAFE FROM HEAT RELATED ILLNESSES. DRINK PLENTY OF WATER,
LIMIT TIME OUTDOORS, AND KNOW THE SYMPTOMS OF HEAT EXHAUSTION
AND HEAT STROKE. IF HIKING CONSIDER GOING EARLY IN THE DAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2: CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GRADUALLY
RETURN TOMORROW INTO NEXT MOST OF NEXT WEEK.
THE BREAKDOWN OF THE RIDGE WILL ALLOW A SERIES OF TROUGHS AND
DISTURBANCES TO MAKE THEIR WAY TO OUR AREA AND PROVIDE MULTIPLE
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOONS
AND EVENINGS. A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER WITH DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY. STORMS WILL BE MORE
LIMITED TOMORROW WITH LITTLE MOISTURE AND CONVECTION FIGHTING A
LID OF HOT AIR. THAT SAID, MUCAPE VALUES INCREASE TO OVER 1000
J/KG FOR PARTS OF SW VA BLUE RIDGE AREA AND INTO THE NC
MOUNTAINS. BULK SHEAR IS UNDER 10 KNOTS SO EXPECTING MOSTLY WEAK
SINGLE CELL/MULTICELL STORMS, HOWEVER IF INSTABILITY INCREASES
MORE THAN FORECAST WE COULD SEE A FEW STRONGER STORMS INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH THE MAIN HAZARD DAMAGING WINDS, AS WELL AS
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR EXPECTED WITH PERHAPS LOCALIZED VALLEY FOG EARLY MORNING.
MOST CONVECTION BEGINS TOMORROW AFTER 2 PM, SO DID NOT INCLUDE
ANY SHRA/TSRA IN THE TAFS FOR THIS ISSUANCE (18Z).
WITH HIGH PRESSURE PRACTICALLY OVERHEAD, WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY UNDER 5 KTS. IT WILL ALSO BE
HOT DURING THE AFTERNOON CREATING HIGH DENSITY ALTITUDE...
CONDITIONS LEADING TO LONGER TAKEOFF ROLLS, DECREASE CLIMB RATES
AND WEIGHT RESTRICTIONS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO
THE INDEPENDENCE DAY WEEKEND. HOWEVER, PRIMARY FLIGHT CATEGORY
IS EXPECTED TO BE VFR WITH PERIODS OF MVFR.
MAIN HAZARD WILL BE THE HEAT. TEMPERATURES THE NEXT FEW DAYS
WILL BE HOT WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS 87 TO 95 FOR THE MOUNTAIN
TERMINALS AND 95 TO 102 FOR THE LOWER ELEVATION TERMINALS SUCH
AS ROA/LYH/DAN. THESE EXTREME TEMPERATURES WILL CREATE HIGH
DENSITY ALTITUDE WITH AIRCRAFT PERFORMANCE SIMILAR TO TAKING OFF
FROM A HIGHER ALTITUDE RUNWAY.
WINDS THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE. SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW 10 KTS FOR MOST OF
THE PERIOD. OVER THE WEEKEND WINDS BECOME MORE GUSTY AND TREND
WNW FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERLY FOR AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE.
CLIMATE
SOME MAXIMUM AND MINIMUM TEMPERATURE RECORDS MAY BE BROKEN THIS
WEEK. FOR REFERENCE, THE RECORDS ARE LISTED BELOW ALONG WITH
THE YEAR THE RECORD OCCURRED.
07/02
STATION HI MAX T HI MIN T
ROANOKE 100/1954 74/1970
LYNCHBURG 99/1898 76/1913
DANVILLE 101/1925 75/1931
BLUEFIELD 95/1954 69/2014
BLACKSBURG 95/1954 68/1931
07/03
STATION HI MAX T HI MIN T
ROANOKE 97/2012 75/1980
LYNCHBURG 97/2012 74/1903
DANVILLE 100/1955 80/1922
BLUEFIELD 92/1911 72/1998
BLACKSBURG 95/1954 71/1941
07/04
STATION HI MAX T HI MIN T
ROANOKE 99/1999 74/2024
LYNCHBURG 98/1966 76/1902
DANVILLE 99/1919 74/1999
BLUEFIELD 92/1957 69/2024
BLACKSBURG 94/1966 78/1949
07/05
STATION HI MAX T HI MIN T
ROANOKE 100/1999 76/2012
LYNCHBURG 98/2024 75/1900
DANVILLE 103/1919 76/1926
BLUEFIELD 93/1948 71/1969
BLACKSBURG 94/1930 69/1932
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ022>024-
032>035-043>046-058-059.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR VAZ022>024-
032>035-043>046-058-059.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ047.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR VAZ047.
NC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ003>006-019-
020.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR NCZ003>006-019-
020.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SH/CDG
AVIATION...PM/SH
CLIMATE...SH
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