275
FXUS61 KRNK 150709
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
309 AM EDT SAT AUG 15 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SEVERE WEATHER AND FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY, WITH DRY WEATHER RETURNING AREAWIDE BY
TUESDAY OF THIS WEEK BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. HEAT
CONCERNS CONTINUE TO REMAIN ON MONDAY ACROSS THE PIEDMONTS OF
VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA.
AVIATION UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DAILY CHANCES FOR STRONG STORMS WITH POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. HOT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY
ACROSS THE VA/NC PIEDMONTS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: DAILY CHANCES FOR STRONG STORMS WITH POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. HOT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY
ACROSS THE VA/NC PIEDMONTS.
THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF STATES, AND AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST WITH CONVECTIVE PERTURBATIONS MOVING
FROM THE MIDWEST EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY, AND INTO WEST
VIRGINIA/VIRGINIA. AT THE SURFACE, A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES
TO REMAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST VIRGINIA AND VIRGINIA, AND
REMAINS A FOCAL POINT FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORM
DEVELOPMENT. CURRENT CAM GUIDANCE HAS SCATTERED CONVECTION
DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS IN AN ENVIRONMENT WITH
ROUGHLY 20 KNOTS OF 0-6KM DEEP LAYER SHEAR, 2000 J/KG OF
SBCAPE, AND 500-700 J/KG OF DCAPE. THIS TYPE OF ENVIRONMENT WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG DAMAGING WIND GUSTS; HOWEVER,
STORM NATURE WILL PREDOMINANTLY REMAIN MULTICELLULAR CLUSTERS
AS THEY TRACK THROUGH THE AREA. ALONG WITH THE SEVERE THREAT,
PWATS CONTINUE TO REMAIN EXTREMELY HIGH, WITH 1.5-2.0 INCH PWATS
FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON. VALUES THIS HIGH WILL BE CONDUCIVE
FOR FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL ACROSS THE REGION WITH ANY STRONG
STORMS THAT MAY REMAIN OVER THE SAME LOCATION OR CONTINUOUSLY
TRACK OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS.
SOME CAM GUIDANCE HAS A LATE EVENING MCS MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL
WEST VIRGINIA AND INTO CENTRAL VIRGINIA ALONG THE I-64 CORRIDOR
LATE TONIGHT INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WHILE THERE IS STILL A
LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THIS OCCURRING, THERE HAVE BEEN A COUPLE
CAMS THAT HAVE SHOWN THIS SOLUTION. THIS WOULD INCREASE ANY
FLASH FLOOD AND SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL ACROSS THIS AREA IF
THIS DOES OCCUR. NO FLOOD WATCHES WILL BE ISSUED AT THIS TIME
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY, BUT COULD VERY WELL BE ISSUED IN
SUBSEQUENT UPDATES IF THIS CAM GUIDANCE CONTINUES THIS TREND
GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING STORMS.
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE FORECAST AS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LOOK POSSIBLE AGAIN ON SUNDAY WITH RIDGE BUILDING
A LITTLE MORE. THE STATIONARY FRONT FINALLY LIFTS NORTH AS A
WARM FRONT ON SUNDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NUDGES
EAST ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE,
WITH NEAR HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA LEVELS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT OF VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. BY
MONDAY EVENING THE RIDGE GETS FLATTENED WITH MORE SHORTWAVES
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA ONCE AGAIN. THE FLOW BEING MORE WESTERLY
MAY KEEP STORM COVERAGE FOR EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS SOMEWHAT
LIMITED.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS ONCE
AGAIN THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. IFR RESTRICTIONS HAVE ALREADY
DEVELOPED AT LWB TONIGHT, AND THESE REDUCED CIGS AND VSBYS WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE UNTIL THE 12-13 UTC TIMEFRAME. EXPECT TO ALSO
SEE BLF, LYH, AND ROA BCB GO DOWN TONIGHT TO MVFR/IFR LEVELS,
WITH SIMILAR RESTRICTIONS LIFTING SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.
AFTERNOON CONVECTION LOOKS AGAIN POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON; HOWEVER, COVERAGE LOOKS TO REMAIN SCATTERED IN
NATURE. IF A TERMINAL IS IMPACTED, IT CAN EXPECT BRIEF PERIODS
OF REDUCED CIGS AND VSBYS AS WELL AS ERRATIC WINDS IN AND NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS.
OVERALL, WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AT AROUND 5-10 KNOTS OUT OF
THE WEST/NORTHWEST FOR ALL MOUNTAIN TERMINALS, AND OUT OF THE
EAST/NORTHEAST FOR ALL PIEDMONT TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
PATTERN TREND CONTINUES WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR STORMS, THOUGH
THE BEST CHANCE FOR ORGANIZED STORMS WILL BE TODAY AND SUNDAY.
OTHERWISE MORE DIURNAL ACTIVITY INTO NEXT WEEK. MAINLY VFR
OUTSIDE OF ANY STORMS AND LATE NIGHT FOG/STRATUS.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...EB
AVIATION...EB
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