937
FXUS61 KRNK 041710
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
110 PM EDT SUN OCT 4 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE AVIATION FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED. IT IS BECOMING
INCREASINGLY LIKELY THAT CLOUDS HANG AROUND OVERNIGHT INTO
TOMORROW MORNING WITH SKIES CLEARING BY MIDDAY TOMORROW.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY MONDAY AND LAST THROUGHOUT THE
WEEK. PATCHY FROST MAY OCCUR DURING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
MORNINGS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY MONDAY AND LAST
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. PATCHY FROST MAY OCCUR DURING TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY MORNINGS.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT CONTINUED TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST AND OUT OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH RAIN
WHICH HAS BEEN IMPACTING MAINLY SOUTHSIDE VA AND A SMALL PART OF
NW NC TODAY. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST. ANOTHER COLD FRONT AND
THE LEADING EDGE OF HIGHER PRESSURE WILL PUSH INTO THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING,
HELPING TO BREAK DOWN A CAD REGIME CURRENTLY IN PLACE ALONG THE
BLUE RIDGE. FOLLOWING THIS, CLOUD COVER SHOULD BEGIN TO ERODE,
BUT IT LOOKS LIKE IT MAY STICK AROUND MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT INTO
TOMORROW MORNING. THE CLOUDS PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA/ERODES
MIDDAY MONDAY INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON. ANY FOG THAT FORMS
OVERNIGHT NOW LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE MUCH MORE PATCHY AND LESS
LIKELY TO BE DENSE.
MUCH DRIER AIR ARRIVES ALONG WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE. LOW
TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNINGS MAY SUPPORT SOME
PATCHY FROST IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS WHERE LOCATIONS SUCH AS
THE GREENBRIER RIVER VALLEY AND BURKES GARDEN MAY SEE LOWS IN
30S. THE MODELS MAINTAIN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. AS THE AIRMASS MODIFIES, TEMPERATURES
SHOULD MODERATE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
OUR NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN MAY OCCUR NEXT WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK (AS IN 7-8 DAYS FROM NOW). NHC IS MONITORING A BROAD
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF, AND THIS FEATURE MAY DEVELOP
INTO A CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT WEEK. IT IS POSSIBLE THE SYSTEM
MOVES ASHORE AND EVENTUALLY BRINGS SOME MOISTURE TO OUR AREA.
THAT IS A LOT OF IFS, SO FOR NOW HAVE TEMPERED HIGH NBM POPS
WITH SOME DRIER PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE TO KEEP RAIN CHANCES
BELOW 50%.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
CEILINGS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE TO MVFR LATER THIS AFTERNOON, BUT
FLIGHT CONDITIONS SHOULD DETERIORATE QUICKLY TOWARDS IFR AND
LIFR AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING DUE TO LOW STRATUS AND PATCHY
FOG. CEILINGS MAY DROP BELOW 500 FEET AGL ACROSS ALL TERMINALS
OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY
THROUGH TONIGHT, BUT THEY SHOULD SHIFT TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST BY
MONDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES. ANY LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG SHOULD VANISH BY MIDDAY MONDAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THIS WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE TAKES CONTROL. THE ONLY EXCEPTION THAT COULD INTERRUPT
THE GOOD FLYING WEATHER WILL BE PATCHY OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
MORNING RIVER VALLEY FOG. WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT
THROUGHOUT THIS TIME PERIOD.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...PW/SH
AVIATION...PW/SH
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