205
FXUS61 KRNK 222346
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
646 PM EST FRI FEB 22 2019
SYNOPSIS
A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH NORTH FROM THE SOUTHEAST UNITED
STATES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC BY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BE
FOLLOWED CLOSELY BY A COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION SUNDAY, BRINGING AN END TO THE RAIN BY AFTERNOON.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 140 PM EST FRIDAY...
INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH LINGERS ACROSS THE ALLEGHANYS INTO THE
SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE THIS AFTERNOON. DEEPEST AXIS OF MOISTURE PER WV
REMAINS SITUATED FROM THE LOWER-MID MS VALLEY EAST NORTHEAST INTO
THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. REGIONAL RADAR
SHOWING MAINLY LIGHT BAND OF RAIN/SHOWERS ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA,
BUT HAVE HAD SOME MODERATE RAIN SET UP ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE
SOUTHWEST OF THE NEW RIVER VALLEY PROMPTING SOME FLOOD ADVISORIES.
PATTERN AND MODELS SHOWING A LULL IN MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN THIS
EVENING, THEN SURGE OF RAINFALL ARRIVES FROM THE TN VALLEY AND
CAROLINAS LATE TONIGHT AS UPPER SUPPORT INCREASES OVER THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. ALL MODELS ARE HITTING THE MOUNTAINS
HARDEST WITH QPF LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE SATURDAY BUT AT THE SAME
TIME THIS AXIS CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE COURSE OF 12
TO 18 HOURS.
SEEING HOW HEAVY THE NAM/GFS AND TO AN EXTENT THE ECM ARE SHOWING
QPF, INCREASING RAINFALL AMOUNTS BY ANOTHER 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH
ESPECIALLY ACROSS VA AND SOUTHERN WV, WITH LESS IN NC.
SEE HYDRO SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS ON STREAMS/RIVER FORECASTS.
ANOTHER ISSUE MAY ARISE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY AND THAT IS
FREEZING RAIN ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES/HIGHEST RIDGES OF THE BLUE
RIDGE FROM ROANOKE NORTH AND ACROSS THE ALLEGHANYS. CURRENTLY THINK
A WET GROUND AND RATES INCREASING WITH VERY SHALLOW WEDGE WILL LIMIT
THIS. COULD SEE AN ADVISORY POSSIBLY BEING NEED ACROSS AMHERST BUT
AGAIN LOOKS ISOLATED AT BEST AND MAY BE HANDLED BETTER WITH A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT.
TEMPS TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO OR REMAIN IN THE 30S, AND WITH RAIN AND
WEDGE IN PLACE SATURDAY SHOULD ONLY SEE RISES OF ABOUT 5 TO 10
DEGREES AT MOST, EXCEPT SOUTHWEST VA OUTSIDE THE WEDGE WHERE IT COULD
REACH 50.
CONFIDENCE IN TEMPS IS MEDIUM, HIGH IN WINDS, AND HIGH IN POPS, BUT
MEDIUM TO HIGH ON QPF, AND LOW ON ICE.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 230 PM EST FRIDAY...
CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE, BUT THE WEDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO LINGER OVER THE AREA FOR MOST OF SATURDAY NIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL BEGIN TO ERODE THE WEDGE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE
EVENING. THE WEDGE WILL ERODE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT OVERNIGHT,
COMPLETELY OUT OF THE AREA BY SUNRISE. THE WEDGE'S PRIMARY THREAT IS
TO KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S. OUTSIDE THE WEDGE, MILDER
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S ARE EXPECTED. EVEN THOUGH THE
FRONT IS TRACKING OVER THE AREA IN THE MORNING, DYNAMICS ARE GOOD
FOR A CHANCE OF THUNDER TO BE HEARD. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT COULD PRODUCE ANOTHER QUARTER TO HALF OF AN INCH OF RAIN
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
THE WEDGE WILL ERODE QUICKLY SUNDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS
ACROSS THE REGION. THIS STRONG FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA BY A
CLOSED LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES. RAIN EXITS THE AREA BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON, THEN THE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO BLOW. SHARP PRESSURE RISES
AND A BROAD 50-60KTS LOW LEVEL JET BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING
STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.
THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR JUST BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BREEZY AND GUSTY S-SW WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT, BUT TO A LESSER EXTENT. WITH A WET GROUND, SUB
ADVISORY LEVEL WIND SPEEDS AND GUSTS COULD TOPPLE TREES AND CAUSE
POWER OUTAGES.
WITH THE COLDER AIR LAGGING BEHIND THE FRONT BY A FEW HOURS,
TEMPERATURES ARE EXCEPTED TO PEAK IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE 60S EAST. A COLD BLAST OF AIR WILL SEND
TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO THE 20S WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND LOW TO
MID 30S EAST.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 245 PM EST FRIDAY...
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE MONDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE REGION. THIS COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOT STAY LONG, MOVING
OUT TO SEA TUESDAY NIGHT. A NORTHERN STREAM COLD FRONT WILL TRY TO
JOIN FORCES WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE LATE WEDNESDAY AND
BRING A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS. AT THIS TIME, THE TWO DO NOT PHASE
UNTIL BOTH SYSTEMS MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY
EVENING. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY KEEP THE AREA DRY BEFORE THE
NEXT FRONT BRINGS RAIN TO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL MONDAY, THEN GRADUALLY WARM ABOVE
NORMAL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL BRING
TEMPERATURES BACK TO NORMAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 645 PM EST FRIDAY...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST
PERIOD ACROSS SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA, NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA AND
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA, WITH WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS
AND MVFR VISIBILITIES. LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN ALONG WITH AREAS
OF FOG ARE EXPECTED.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY TREND TOWARD THE EAST AND NORTHEAST AS WEAK
LOWER PRESSURE REMAINS WEST OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS AND HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP EAST THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC
AREA ON SUNDAY, GRADUALLY DIMINISHING/ENDING THE THREAT FOR
PRECIPITATION WITH SUBSEQUENT RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE DURING THE AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER, COLDER UPSLOPING WINDS FROM THE WEST OR NORTHWEST
FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN THE THREAT
FOR SUB-VFR WEATHER WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT, BUT DRY AIR WILL ALLOW VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO ALL
AREAS MONDAY, WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY BEFORE THE NEXT
FRONTAL SYSTEM ARRIVES IN THE WED-THU TIME FRAME.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME QUITE STRONG AND GUSTY BEHIND THE
FRONT SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS, UNTIL HIGH PRESSURE CAN SUFFICIENTLY BUILD INTO THE
REGION LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, THEREBY ALLOWING WINDS TO
GRADUALLY RELAX.
HYDROLOGY
AS OF 200 PM EST FRIDAY...
CURRENTLY HAVE A RIVER FLOOD WARNING OUT FOR SOUTH BOSTON ALONG THE
DAN RIVER. GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTION POTENTIAL MINOR FLOODING ACROSS
THE REST OF THE DAN RIVER, THE LOWER PORTIONS OF ROANOKE AND PARTS
OF THE JAMES.
WITH WHERE THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST QPF IS EXPECTED, HAVE CONCERNS THAT
SOME PORTIONS OF THE ROANOKE, NEW, GREENBRIER, CLINCH AND HOLSTON
RIVERS MAY FLOOD, SO THE FLOOD WATCH WILL ADDRESS THIS, AND STILL IS
A GOOD CALL FOR THE ENTIRE HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA.
SMALLER CREEKS AND STREAMS, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE WILL LIKELY STAY ELEVATED WITH FLOODING A GOOD POSSIBILITY BY
SATURDAY MORNING.
WITH THIS AMOUNT OF RAINFALL FORECASTED SOME RIVERS MAY BE IN FLOOD
INTO MONDAY.
STAY TUNED FOR ANY FLOOD ADVISORIES OR WARNINGS.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR VAZ007-009>020.
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR VAZ022>024-032>035-
043>047-058-059.
NC...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR NCZ001-002-018.
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR NCZ003>006-019-020.
WV...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR WVZ042>044-507-508.
SYNOPSIS...RAB/WP
NEAR TERM...WP
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...AMS/WP
HYDROLOGY...WP
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