129
FXUS61 KRNK 310711
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
311 AM EDT SUN MAY 31 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
KEY MESSAGE 1: WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECASTED FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS A COLD
FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASS ACROSS THE
LOWER MID-ATLANTIC.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECASTED FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS A COLD
FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASS ACROSS THE
LOWER MID-ATLANTIC.
THE CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES WILL REMAIN LOCKED IN A MASSIVE
OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN. A CLOSED LOW WILL STALL OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST, A HIGH-PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BAKE THE CENTRAL STATES,
AND ANOTHER STUBBORN CLOSED LOW WILL ANCHOR ITSELF NEAR THE
HUDSON BAY, DRAPING A BROAD ATMOSPHERIC TROUGH ACROSS MOST OF
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY.
BY TUESDAY, A SIGNIFICANT PIECE OF ENERGY WILL DETACH FROM THAT
NORTHERN HUDSON BAY SYSTEM, MORPHING INTO ITS OWN DISTINCT
UPPER- LEVEL LOW. THIS SYSTEM WILL LINGER JUST CLOSE ENOUGH TO
THE COAST TO SPIN WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE TN/VA AND NC/VA BORDER MONDAY AND THEN
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASS ACROSS THE REGION.
TUESDAY'S STORMS WILL LIKELY PROVE MORE WIDESPREAD THAN THE
ISOLATED ACTIVITY TRIGGERED BY MONDAY MORNING'S SOUTHWARD-MOVING
COLD FRONT. HOWEVER, WE WILL WATCH A BATTLE IN THE ATMOSPHERE
BOTH DAYS, AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND POOLS OF DRY AIR WORK TO
INHIBIT DEEP STORM DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN THE LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE
RETURNING TO THE AREA, ANY RAINFALL IS FORECASTED TO REMAIN
BRIEF IN DURATION, WITH MOST TOTALS LANDING AT LESS THAN 0.10
INCHES. LIKEWISE, ANY STORMS THAT DO MANAGE TO DEVELOP ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE.
ONCE THAT LOW DEPARTS, A BEAUTIFUL STRETCH OF WEATHER WILL TAKE
OVER. WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES, KEEPING THE REGION PLEASANT BEFORE THE NEXT
WEATHER SYSTEM THREATENS TO BRING MORE RAIN BY NEXT WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL TAKE A BRIEF ROLLER-COASTER RIDE AFTER A DRY
AND NEAR-SEASONAL STRETCH THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. MOUNTAIN
COMMUNITIES WILL ENJOY HIGHS IN THE 70S THROUGH MONDAY, FOLLOWED
BY A COOLER DIP INTO THE 60S AND LOW 70S ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY, BEFORE REBOUNDING BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S LATE IN THE WEEK. MEANWHILE, THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT WILL
EXPERIENCE HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 70S, THOUGH THERMOMETERS WILL
FLIRT WITH THE 80S BOTH TODAY AND MONDAY. AFTER A SLIGHTLY
COOLER STRETCH MID-WEEK, A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND WILL ARRIVE
BY NEXT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, PUSHING TEMPERATURES INTO THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90.
AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VISUAL FLIGHT RULES (VFR) CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PREVAIL FOR
THE NEXT TWENTY-FOUR HOURS ACROSS ALL REGIONAL AVIATION
TERMINALS. IN THE WAKE OF A RECENT COLD FRONT, HIGHER SURFACE
PRESSURE WILL STEADILY BUILD INTO THE AREA, THOUGH SCATTERED
MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM OVERHEAD
THROUGHOUT SUNDAY.
AN EASTERN SEABREEZE IS CURRENTLY PUSHING ITS WAY THROUGH THE
REGION, WHICH MAY BRIEFLY ELEVATE WIND SPEEDS AS THE BOUNDARY
PASSES. BEYOND THIS IMMEDIATE FEATURE, THE MOST NOTABLE CHANGE
IN THE LOCAL WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE A DISTINCT SHIFT IN WIND
DIRECTION AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO WEDGE ITSELF AGAINST THE
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS. WHILE WIND SPEEDS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE STRONG OR IMPACTFUL, THEY WILL NOTICEABLY CLOCK
AROUND FROM NORTHEASTERLY FLOW EARLY THIS MORNING TO SOUTHERLY
BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN
TO THE LOWER MID-ATLANTIC ON MONDAY, THOUGH TERMINALS AT
LEWISBURG (LWB) AND (LYH) WILL LIKELY SIT TOO FAR NORTH TO
EXPERIENCE ANY SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS. BY TUESDAY, A MORE
WIDESPREAD AREA OF SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
THE REGION, DIRECTLY AFFECTING ALL LOCAL TAF SITES WITH
TEMPORARY VISIBILITY AND CEILING REDUCTIONS. THIS UNSETTLED
WEATHER WILL BE SHORT-LIVED, HOWEVER, AS CLEARING TRENDS TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WILL ALLOW PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS TO
FIRMLY ESTABLISH THEMSELVES ACROSS THE ENTIRE AIRSPACE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE MID-WEEK PERIOD.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...RCS
AVIATION...RCS
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