927
FXUS61 KRNK 261657
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1257 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN FORECAST PHILOSOPHY, WITH FOCUS ON
PERIODIC SHOWER/STORM THREAT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND DRYING TREND
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
THERE IS A RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL, BUT PROBABILITY FOR
WIDESPREAD OCCURRENCE IS LOW DUE TO DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS.
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
FOR THE EASTERN PIEDMONT.
KEY MESSAGES
KEY MESSAGE 1: THERE IS A FLASH FLOOD RISK TODAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL.
KEY MESSAGE 2: DRY WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: THERE IS A FLASH FLOOD RISK TODAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL.
THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER HAS HIGHLIGHTED PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA WITH A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL TODAY
AND TONIGHT, GENERALLY SOUTH OF I-64. AFTER YESTERDAY'S HEAVY
RAINFALL, WHERE SOME LOCATIONS PICKED UP 4-6", ANY ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. DESPITE THE DROUGHT,
RECENT RAINS HAVE BEGUN TO WET THE TOP LAYER OF SOIL, AND HAVE
CAUSED RIVERS AND STREAMS TO RISE BACK TO NORMAL LEVELS. THE
SYNOPTIC SETUP IS VIRTUALLY UNCHANGED WITH POTENTIAL FOR LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS/STORMS, THE STRONGER STORMS
CONTAINING HIGH RAIN RATES WITH ANY SORT OF TRAINING OF STORM
CELLS LEADING TO LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL.
VERY HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT IS PRESENT WITHIN THE ATMOSPHERE,
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 1.5-2.0". THIS IS DUE TO
TROPICAL MOISTURE BEING PULLED INTO THE AREA FROM THE BERMUDA
HIGH IN THE ATLANTIC AND A DISTURBANCE ALONG THE GULF COAST. ANY
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL HAVE EFFICIENT RAINFALL WITH HIGH RAIN
RATES OF 3-4" PER HOUR AT TIMES. SHOULD THESE EFFICIENT STORMS
TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREA, THEN RAIN TOTALS AGAIN COULD BE
SEVERAL INCHES IN THOSE LOCATIONS. IF TRAINING STORMS OCCUR OVER
THE SAME AREAS AS YESTERDAY, THEN FLASH FLOODING WOULD BE MUCH
MORE LIKELY. URBAN, LOW-LYING, AND FLOOD- PRONE AREAS WILL BE
THE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLOODING.
THE FLOODING RISK CONTINUES ON WEDNESDAY AS A STATIONARY FRONT
REMAINS STALLED ACROSS THE AREA, WITH AN AREA-WIDE MARGINAL RISK
FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL CURRENTLY IN PLACE. SHOULD HEAVY RAINFALL
HAPPEN TODAY, THIS RISK COULD BE UPGRADED. THERE IS ALSO A
MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. SEVERE WEATHER IS
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE EASTERN PIEDMONT, AS AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE
MAIN THREAT IS FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. CURRENT
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW AMPLE CAPE AND MODEST LAPSE RATES, WHICH
SUPPORT STRONG STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS.
KEY MESSAGE 2: DRY WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
BY THURSDAY, A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FINALLY PUSHES THE
STALLED FRONT SOUTH OF OUR AREA. WHILE THIS WILL ALLOW SKIES TO
CLEAR OUT SOME, RAIN CHANCES MAY LINGER BRIEFLY FOR THURSDAY
BEFORE MORE SUSTAINABLE DRYING OCCURS FOR THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL VARY GREATLY DURING THIS 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD.
AS WE ARE GETTING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON, CIGS HAVE LIFTED, HELPED
ALONG BY SOME BREAKS IN CLOUDS ALLOWING A MODICUM OF INSOLATION TO
ADD SOME SURFACE INSTABILITY. THIS HAS RESULTED IN MOST AIRPORTS
EXPERIENCING MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS. ANY FOG HAS DISSIPATED BY NOW, SO
VSBY WILL NOT BE A CONCERN UNTIL LATER IN THE EVENING WHEN HEAVY
RAIN SHOWERS WILL REDUCE VSBY AROUND THE AREA. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE, CREATING LOCALIZED WIND GUSTS IN VARIED
DIRECTIONS ON SHORT NOTICE. INTO THE NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING,
SHOWERS WILL WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE, BUT THE CONTINUOUS MOISTURE BEING
DROPPED ON THE SURFACE WILL ENCOURAGE PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. CIGS WILL DROP HEALTHILY AGAIN AS WELL, PUTTING
CONDITIONS BACK IN THE IFR/LIFR RANGE.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP SUB-VFR FLIGHT
CONDITIONS IN PLACE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH REPEATED ROUNDS
OF SHOWERS/STORMS AND OVERCAST SKIES. SEVERE STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY FOR DAN/LYH WITH DAMAGING WINDS AS THE
THREAT. FINALLY BY THURSDAY, THE STALLED FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF
THE AREA, WITH HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTH MOVING IN. WHILE
SHOWER/STORMS MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE, THEY WILL BE ISOLATED AND
PRIMARILY LIMITED TO OUR SOUTHERN LOCATIONS, SUCH AS DAN. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR MOSTLY VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO THE
REMAINDER OF THE TERMINALS. VFR WILL BE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE,
THOUGH FOG REMAINS POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JCB/PM
AVIATION...JCB/VFJ
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