863
FXUS61 KRNK 250055
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
855 PM EDT THU SEP 24 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SKIES ARE GRADUALLY CLEARING. ADJUSTED TIMING OF THE CLOUD
DEPARTURE THIS EVENING BUT ALSO INCREASED CLOUD COVER SUNDAY
AND MONDAY PER WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FROM THE COASTAL STORM.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND WITH COOL OVERNIGHTS AND
WARM AFTERNOONS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND WITH COOL
OVERNIGHTS AND WARM AFTERNOONS.
CLOUDS ARE GRADUALLY CLEARING AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. STILL SEEING PATCHES OF LINGERING CLOUD
COVER BUT OVERALL TREND IS FOR CLEARING. THE EVENING RNK
SOUNDING SHOWED A DRAMATIC DROP IN MOISTURE JUST ABOVE THE
SURFACE (PWAT 0.70) AND MODEL FORECASTS HAVE THIS DRY LAYER
EXPANDING VERTICALLY WITH TIME WITH FORECAST PWAT OF 0.23 BY
12Z/8AM FRIDAY.
THE UPPER LOW OVER THE AREA IS TRANSFERRING ITS ENERGY TO
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST.
THIS IS KEY TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG LOW, WHICH WILL
EVENTUALLY MOVE UP THE ATLANTIC COAST. IN RESPONSE TO THE
STRENGTHENING LOW, FLOW TURNS MORE NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY TONIGHT
AND ANY REMAINING CLOUD COVER WILL DIMINISH GIVING WAY TO CLEAR
SKIES BY EARLY FRIDAY WITH SUNNY SKIES FORECAST TO FINISH OFF
THE WORK WEEK.
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT AND FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL NIGHTS WILL BE
QUITE COOL WITH LOWS IN THE 40S AND POTENTIALLY INTO THE UPPER
30S FOR THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN ELEVATIONS. THESE COOL TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BUT WILL BEGIN TO
MODERATE WITH RETURN FLOW NEXT WEEK. NO RAIN EXPECTED FOR AT
LEAST THE NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENTS CONTINUE THIS EVENING AS VFR BECOMES MORE
COMMON ACROSS THE REGION. STILL SOME STUBBORN CLOUD COVER OVER
THE NC MOUNTAINS WHICH WILL KEEP MVFR/IFR CIGS IN PLACE THERE
EARLY TONIGHT. SHOULD SEE THIS AREA SCATTER OUT BY 06Z/2AM.
FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS, ESPECIALLY
WEST OF THE APPALACHIAN DIVIDE. OUTSIDE OF ANY OVERNIGHT/EARLY
MORNING FOG IN THE RIVER VALLEYS, EXPECTING WIDESPREAD VFR ON
FRIDAY.
STILL SEEING A FEW GUSTS INTO THE 20KT RANGE FROM THE NE ACROSS
CENTRAL VIRGINIA. WILL SUBSIDE SOMEWHAT TONIGHT, BUT COULD GUST
AROUND 20KTS AGAIN BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH NEXT WEEK,
OUTSIDE OF A DAILY CHANCE OF PATCHY RIVER VALLEY FOG AROUND
SUNRISE.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BMG/PM
AVIATION...BMG/PM
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