884
FXUS61 KRNK 081336
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
936 AM EDT TUE SEP 8 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ADDED A LITTLE PRECIPITATION CHANCE TO THE SOUTHWESTERN
MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES TO ACCOUNT FOR RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
2) NEXT GOOD RAIN CHANCE STARTING THURSDAY, CONTINUING
THROUGH AT LEAST THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE
REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE PORTIONS OF THE WEEK. 850MB
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RESIDE IN THE +14C TO +16C RANGE
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. THESE VALUES PLACE MUCH OF THE AREA WITHIN
THE 90 TO 97.5 PERCENTILE OF THE 30-YEAR CFSR CLIMATOLOGY MID-
WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WHILE A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY, LIMITED CHANGE IN THE THERMAL PROFILE
IS EXPECTED. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED, WITH
SATURDAY CURRENTLY LOOKING LIKE THE COOLEST OF THE SEVEN DAYS.
KEY MESSAGE 2: NEXT GOOD RAIN CHANCE STARTING THURSDAY, CONTINUING
THROUGH AT LEAST THE WEEKEND.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE FOR A DRY FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT THEN STALL TO OUR SOUTH. UPSTREAM, ANOTHER
DISTURBANCES IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY THE
WEEKEND. THESE FEATURES WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER PATTERN ACTIVE WITH
DAILY CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS STARTING ON THURSDAY, LASTING
INTO THE WEEKEND. WHILE THE SITUATION WILL NOT BE A A CONTINUOUS RAIN
WASHOUT ACROSS THE REGION, SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY. ON THURSDAY, NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF
THE AREA MAY SEE MORE ABUNDANCE OF RAIN THAN SOUTHEASTERN AREAS. IN
FACT, DEPENDING UPON THE SPEED OF THE FRONT, AREAS SUCH AS DANVILLE
MAY NEED TO WAIT UNTIL LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY TO SEE
PRECIPITATION.
AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE
REGION DURING THE EXTENT OF THE VALID TAF FORECAST, CONCLUDING AT
12Z/8AM EDT WEDNESDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE SOME PATCHY
FOG/MIST AND SUB-MVFR STRATUS EARLY THIS MORNING, AND AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT, ACROSS SOME OF THE RIVER AND MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. ANY
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR
NOT LONG AFTER SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT
AND VARIABLE.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT SAVE POCKETS OF LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING RIVER/MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG.
SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURN TO THE FORECAST ON THURSDAY, AND CONTINUE
INTO THE WEEKEND. THE PROBABILITY OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THIS PERIOD, ESPECIALLY STARTING FRIDAY ONCE
THE AREA IS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT, AND
LOW LEVEL WINDS MAY TAKE ON MORE OF AN EASTERLY COMPONENT.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CG/DS
AVIATION...DS
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