546
FXUS61 KRNK 272344
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
744 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
STORMS THIS EVENING AND AGAIN FRIDAY MAY POSE A SEVERE WIND
THREAT, ALONG WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL.
AVIATON UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
1) POTENTIAL STRONG STORMS FRIDAY. DAMAGING WINDS AND LOCALIZED
FLOODING POSSIBLE.
2) HEAT BUILDS INTO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: POTENTIAL STRONG STORMS FRIDAY. DAMAGING WINDS
AND LOCALIZED FLOODING POSSIBLE.
STORMS HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO DEVELOP WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND
COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL LIKELY INCREASE THROUGH THIS EVENING IN
RESPONSE TO A SUBTLE WAVE AND A SLOW-MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WITHIN THE REGION. MODERATE SURFACE HEATING AND INCREASING DEW
POINTS INTO THE UPPER 60S HAS RESULTED IN MLCAPE/SBCAPE NOW
APPROACHING 1500 J/KG. FURTHER DESTABILIZATION THROUGHOUT THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW STORMS TO INCREASE IN
COVERAGE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. PWAT VALUES ARE NOT PARTICULARLY
HIGH (AROUND 1.50" OR LESS) BUT NEARLY STATIONARY STORMS WILL
STILL POSE A LOCALIZED FLOODING THREAT THROUGH THIS EVENING.
SHEAR REMAINS WEAK, SO ORGANIZED CONVECTION REMAINS A LOWER
RISK, BUT MULTICELL CLUSTERS AND CELL MERGERS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING MAY INTRODUCE A DAMAGING WIND THREAT FOR A
FEW HOURS.
FRIDAY, THE FRONT SLOWS AND STALLS SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE VA/NC
PIEDMONT/FOOTHILLS, AS SEVERAL VORTS TRACK FROM THE TN VALLEY TO
THE EAST COAST. LOOKS LIKE BETTER SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO STAY
EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS, WITH MORE INSTABILITY BUT WILL DEPEND ON
CLOUD COVERAGE EARLY IN THE DAY. IF SUNSHINE IS PLENTIFUL EXPECT
MODERATE TO POTENTIALLY STRONG INSTABILITY EAST/SOUTHEAST OF THE
FRONT WHERE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S DEWPOINTS WILL BE PRESENT.
LAPSE RATES WILL BE QUITE WEAK, BUT MOST GUIDANCE SHOWS
TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S WHICH SHOULD
PROVIDE POCKETS OF MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY. ANY STORMS
THAT CAN TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE A STRONGER FLOW ALOFT MAY BE
LONGER- LIVED AND CAPABLE OF SOME DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
KEY MESSAGE 2: HEAT BUILDS INTO NEXT WEEK.
A STRONG UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES APPEAR LIKELY AS THE RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE
THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AS SUCH WITH STRONG
RIDGING, RAIN/STORM CHANCES WILL BECOME LIMITED.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
DAN/BCB MAY CONTINUE TO SEE -SHRA WITH AN OCCASIONAL STRIKE OF
LIGHTNING. BLF AND LWB MAY SEE A SHOWER, BUT NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS. ANY STORMS COULD BRING LOWER
VSBYS AND CIGS AND GUSTY WINDS.
TONIGHT, MODELS SHOWING MORE POTENTIAL FOR FOG BUT STILL DEPENDS
ON LINGERING CLOUD COVER AND IF IT RAINS AT/NEAR THE TERMINAL.
COULD HAVE IFR OR WORSE VSBYS AT LWB/BCB, THEN MAYBE MVFR AT
BLF/LYH/DAN. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IN THIS REMAINS RATHER LOW AS
OF THIS UPDATE.
A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND INTO EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING BEFORE STALLING SOMEWHERE IN EAST VA. POPS HAVE
INCREASED FOR ROA, LYH, AND DAN TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WHERE CONVERGENCE WILL BE HIGHEST ALONG THAT PART OF THE FRONT.
HAVE INCLUDED -TSRA FOR THESE TERMINALS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK APPEARS DRIER WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES. VFR EXPECTED OUTSIDE ANY LATE NIGHT FOG.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BMG/SH/WP
AVIATION...BMG/SH/WP
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