221
FXUS61 KRNK 041743
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
143 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST. DAILY THREAT OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. PRIMARY HAZARD IS LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN, BUT
SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONG DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS
THIS AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGES
1) THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR VIRGINIA
AND THE CAROLINAS TODAY/TONIGHT.
2) UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THIS WEEK
WITH DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL FOR VIRGINIA AND THE CAROLINAS TODAY/TONIGHT.
A VERY MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE TODAY WITH PERSISTENT
EASTERLY FLOW ADVECTING DEEP MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. SURFACE
ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT A STALLED BOUNDARY IS DRAPED OVER THE
REGION, IN ADDITION TO A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE THAT IS EASILY
IDENTIFIABLE IN THE SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE
CONCERNING FACTOR IS THE LOW IS NEARLY STATIONARY WHICH MEANS
STEERING WINDS WILL REMAIN STAGNANT WITH LITTLE OR NO GEOGRAPHIC
CHANGE IN THE POSITION OF THE SURFACE FRONT TODAY. AS SUCH,
EXPECT PERSISTENT FORMATION OF SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WITHIN
THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT, WITH HEAVIEST OF THE RAIN TODAY
FALLING OVER SOUTHERN VIRGINIA AND INTO NORTH CAROLINA. THIS IS
WHERE HI-RES CAM GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO PINPOINT ON THE GREATEST
COVERAGE OF HEAVY RAINFALL.
12Z RNK RAOB SHOWS AN INCREASE IN PRECIPITABLE WATER WHEN
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AND CURRENT RAP ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO
INCREASE THESE VALUES, WITH SOME OF THE AREA NOW CLOSING IN ON
2 INCH VALUES. THIS WILL RESULT IN VERY EFFICIENT RAINFALL
WHICH COULD LEAD TO AN INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING
THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING.
AWAY FROM THE CONVERGENT ZONE NEAR THE SURFACE FRONT, NOT
EXPECTING A LOT OF SHOWER COVERAGE. HOWEVER, HEATING OF THE DAY
INSTABILITY DRIVEN SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE BUT THEY SHOULD
NOT BE AS ORGANIZED AS WHAT IS EXPECTED ALONG THE ACTUAL SURFACE
FRONT. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS HIGHLIGHTED A SMALL
MARGINAL RISK AREA FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS OVER WESTERN
NORTH CAROLINA...AN AREA CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW.
WARMING SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL RESULT
IN SCATTERED CONVECTIVE INITIATION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS. AS INSTABILITY PEAKS AND LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
BECOME STEEP OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, AN ISOLATED WIND-DAMAGE
THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE WESTERN CAROLINAS.
BY TONIGHT, LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD MITIGATE ANY SEVERE
THREAT, BUT A LOCALIZED EXCESSIVE RAIN HAZARD WILL LINGER. THE
SURFACE FRONT OVER SOUTHERN VA SHOULD BEGIN TO LIFT NORTH AS THE
UPPER LOW BEGINS TO OPEN UP AND SHEAR OUT. THIS SHOULD
RECONFIGURE THE AXIS OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITH AREAS CLOSER
TO THE US 460/I-64 CORRIDOR TARGETED FOR THE HIGHER QPF
OVERNIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 2...UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REST
OF THIS WEEK WITH DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THE UPPER LOW OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL SHEAR OUT AND WEAKEN
WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER
BERMUDA AND ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE GREAT
LAKES. WIND FLOW BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES WILL MAINTAIN A
PERSISTENT FLOW OF MOISTURE INTO THE FORECAST AREA, ENOUGH TO
FUEL DAILY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, MOST OF WHICH SHOULD
COINCIDE WITH THE PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY FAVORING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING SEVERE, BUT A
MARGINAL RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TO BE A HAZARD
DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH RAIN RATES WHICH MAY LEAD TO
RUNOFF ISSUES.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW AND A FRONT WITHIN THE VICINITY HAS
KEPT CLOUDS OVER THE REGION, WITH MVFR CIGS QUITE COMMON FOR
MOST TERMINALS. THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
DOWNPOURS THAT COULD CAUSE BRIEF VSBY REDUCTIONS. EXPECTING
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AS CLOUDS LOWER AND FOG
DEVELOPS...IFR/LIFR BECOMING MORE LIKELY FOR MOST TERMINALS.
SLOW TO IMPROVE WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH SUB VFR POSSIBLY
LINGERING AGAIN THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE DAY.
WINDS GENERALLY REMAIN OUT OF THE EAST TODAY...GOING LIGHT TO
CALM OVERNIGHT.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
SCATTERED, MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. ABUNDANT MOISTURE FAVORS
MVFR CEILINGS AT TIMES ALONG WITH PATCHY OVERNIGHT FOG.
HYDROLOGY
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. REPEATED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AMIDST A
MOIST AIR MASS WILL PERSIST THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK.
NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS FOR ANY PARTICULAR
LOCATION.
PWAT VALUES EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE 1.50" TO 2.00"
RANGE. HIGH AMBIENT MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE VERY EFFICIENT
RAINFALL RATES WHICH COULD EXCEED 2-3 INCHES PER HOUR. URBAN
AREAS AND ALONG MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN WILL BE PARTICULARLY
SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLASH FLOODING.
ANTECEDENT SOIL CONDITIONS ARE GRADUALLY TURNING WETTER ACROSS
THE AREA, BUT THERE ARE STILL CONSIDERABLE RAINFALL DEFICITS
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BMG/PM
AVIATION...BMG
HYDROLOGY...BMG/PM
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