799
FXUS61 KRNK 170149
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
949 PM EDT SAT MAY 16 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY HAVE TRENDED LOWER.
AVIATION UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
KEY MESSAGE 1: NEAR RECORD HEAT EARLY NEXT WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 2: SOME AFTERNOON SHOWER CHANCES SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY FOR THE MOUNTAINS. WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS WITH SOME
STORMS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 3: COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH CONTINUED RAIN CHANCES
LATE NEXT WEEK INTO MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: NEAR RECORD HEAT EARLY NEXT WEEK.
A 500MB RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST US, AND HEIGHTS
INCREASE OVER THE REGION. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST,
AND FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST, BRINGING IN
WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR. THUS, A WARMING TREND WILL ENSUE, AND
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES HIGHER EACH
DAY. BY THE START OF THE WORK WEEK, AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE 80S IN THE WEST, AND 90S IN THE PIEDMONT. SEE THE CLIMATE
SECTION BELOW FOR THE DAILY RECORDS AT OUR CLIMATE SITES DURING
THIS UNSEASONABLY WARM STRETCH.
KEY MESSAGE 2: SOME AFTERNOON SHOWER CHANCES SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY FOR THE MOUNTAINS. WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS WITH SOME
STORMS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
WITH THE GREATER MOISTURE AND WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE REGION,
THERE ARE DAILY CHANCES OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR
THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. THESE WILL
BE MOSTLY TERRAIN BASED, SINCE THERE IS NOT A STRONG SYNOPTIC
FEATURE TO DRIVE MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION.
HOWEVER, BY WEDNESDAY, A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS FROM THE MIDWEST. INCREASED SHEAR AHEAD OF AND ALONG
THE FRONT, COMBINED WITH THE ONGOING HEAT AND HUMIDITY, WILL LEAD TO
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE, BUT
CONFIDENCE IN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS LOW AT THIS TIME, SINCE THE
BETTER UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL TRACK FARTHER NORTH OF THE AREA.
RAIN SHOWERS LOOK TO LINGER INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT MOVES
TO THE SOUTHEAST.
KEY MESSAGE 3: COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH CONTINUED RAIN CHANCES
LATE NEXT WEEK INTO MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.
THE FRONT SLOWS DOWN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK,
WHILE A SURFACE HIGH BUILDS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND, AND COULD WEDGE
AGAINST THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS. MOISTURE AROUND THE
FRONT AND NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES AND CLOUDS
IN THE FORECAST HEADING INTO MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP BY ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES AREAWIDE BY THURSDAY, AND
THEN ANOTHER FEW DEGREES BY FRIDAY. CURRENT FORECAST HAS HIGHS
IN THE 70S BY THE END OF THE WEEK, BUT IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT
THE NBM HAS A 10 DEGREE SPREAD IN HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM THE
25TH TO 75TH PERCENTILES, SO CONFIDENCE IN TEMPERATURES LATE
NEXT WEEK IS LOW. THAT BEING SAID, IN WEDGE PATTERNS,
TEMPERATURES TYPICALLY TEND TOWARDS THE LOWER END OF GUIDANCE,
SO WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE TEMPERATURES UNABLE TO ESCAPE
THE 60S FRIDAY.
AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE BOARD TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
RAIN ENDED FOR THE NIGHT. WINDS WILL BE CALM AND LIGHT
OVERNIGHT, BUT WILL PICK UP TO 5-10KTS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
SUNDAY. SOME LIGHT PATCHY MOUNTAIN FOG MAY IMPACT LWB FOR A
BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME BEFORE DAYBREAK SUNDAY, BUT OTHERWISE ALL
SITES WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAY
ROLL IN ON SUNDAY, BUT NOTHING THAT WOULD APPROACH 3KFT.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE WEATHER QUIET AND CONDITIONS VFR THROUGH
THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS INCREASE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT. THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES WANE DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS,
BUT RAIN COULD CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY MORNING. RAIN CHANCES AND
CLOUD COVER LINGER THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
NOTE: BLUEFIELD (KBLF) ASOS IS CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING A TECHNICAL
OUTAGE DUE TO A MAJOR POWER SUPPLY FAILURE. REPLACEMENT PARTS HAVE
BEEN ORDERED. ETA OF REPAIR IS CURRENTLY UNKNOWN. AMD NOT SKED IS
BEING APPENDED TO ITS TAF.
CLIMATE
RECORD-BREAKING HEAT IS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK. HERE ARE THE
CURRENT RECORDS AND OUR CURRENT FORECAST.
MONDAY, MAY 18, 2026
STATION HI MAX T HI MIN T FORECAST HIGH
ROANOKE 94 IN 1962 69 IN 1996 92
LYNCHBURG 93 IN 1911 68 IN 1894 92
DANVILLE 93 IN 1974 69 IN 2015 93
BLUEFIELD 87 IN 1996 66 IN 2015 86
BLACKSBURG 88 IN 1911 61 IN 2018 88
TUESDAY, MAY 19, 2026
STATION HI MAX T HI MIN T FORECAST HIGH
ROANOKE 96 IN 1962 69 IN 2022 94
LYNCHBURG 93 IN 1962 66 IN 2022 92
DANVILLE 95 IN 1962 69 IN 1962 94
BLUEFIELD 89 IN 1911 66 IN 1977 86
BLACKSBURG 91 IN 1911 61 IN 1938 89
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AS
AVIATION...AS/VFJ
CLIMATE...RCS
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