607
FXUS61 KRNK 291731
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
131 PM EDT WED APR 29 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
STILL SEEING SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON, THOUGH MORNING RAIN AND CLOUD COVER IS TAKING LONGER THAN
INITIALLY ANTICIPATED TO CLEAR OUT OF THE REGION. THIS WILL IMPACT
THE POTENTIAL FOR AND COVERAGE OF SEVERE WEATHER LATER TODAY.
TEMPERATURES HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY COLDER FOR SUNDAY MORNING,
RESULTING IN HIGHER CONFIDENCE FOR FROST/FREEZE POTENTIAL.
KEY MESSAGES
1) RAIN AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. SOME OF THE
STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE. ALL SEVERE THREATS ARE POSSIBLE,
INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS, HAIL, AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO.
2) ANOTHER OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY, BUT RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT. COLDER TEMPERATURES
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST/FREEZE BY SUNDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: RAIN AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. SOME OF THE
STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE. ALL SEVERE THREATS ARE POSSIBLE,
INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS, HAIL, AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO.
A STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
MID ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHEAST US TODAY, WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT
PROGGED TO CROSS THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
CURRENTLY, THE FRONT IS STILL TO THE WEST, ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE AREA STILL REMAINS IN A MOIST
AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT, WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S
AREAWIDE. MORNING RAIN IS TAKING LONGER THAN INITIALLY ANTICIPATED
TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION, REACHING THE PIEDMONT NOW AT THE TIME OF
THIS WRITING. SOME STORMS DID MAKE IT INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA EARLIER THIS MORNING, BUT HAVE QUICKLY FADED TO JUST
SHOWERS AS ACTIVITY MOVED TOWARDS AND THEN EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE,
THANKS TO ABUNDANT LOW CLOUDS OVER CENTRAL VA. BEHIND THIS
PRECIPITATION, MORE SCATTERED, LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE ALSO STARTING
TO MAKE THEIR WAY INTO SOUTHWEST VA AND SOUTHEAST WV. AMPLE CLOUD
COVER REMAINS OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS, WITH ONLY A FEW POCKETS
OF SUNSHINE OBSERVED, MOSTLY TO THE WEST. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF
THIS MORNING RAIN AND SUBSEQUENT CLEARING OF THE CLOUD COVER. CAMS
ARE CONTINUING TO FORECAST ANYWHERE FROM 500 J/KG TO 1500+ J/KG OF
SBCAPE BY MID AFTERNOON OR SO, WHICH MAY BE A LITTLE OPTIMISTIC.
HOWEVER, IF THIS BETTER AFTERNOON DESTABILIZATION IS REALIZED, BULK
SHEAR IS FAVORABLE FOR MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION, BETWEEN 40 TO 50
KNOTS, PARTICULARLY NEARER TO THE FRONT ITSELF. THIS IS SUPPORTIVE
OF ALL SEVERE HAZARDS BEING POSSIBLE, IF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAN
DEVELOP, INCLUDING DAMAGING WIND, HAIL, AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR
TWO.
HAVE HAD SOME DECENT RAINFALL WITH THE MORNING PRECIPITATION, UP TO
HALF AN INCH IN THE GREENBRIER VALLEY AND NEW RIVER VALLEY, LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS WHERE THE EMBEDDED STORMS/HEAVY SHOWERS HAVE BEEN.
TOTAL AT THE BLACKSBURG AIRPORT WAS ALMOST TWO THIRDS OF AN INCH.
COULD SEE ANOTHER FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH WITH THE SHOWERS/STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON, UP TO HALF AN INCH POSSIBLE WITHIN THE STRONGER STORMS.
KEY MESSAGE 2: ANOTHER OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY, BUT RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT. COLDER
TEMPERATURES WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST/FREEZE BY SUNDAY
MORNING.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL WORK ITS WAY TOWARDS THE CAROLINAS BY THE
END OF THE WEEK, WHICH WILL BRING THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN TO
THE AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHWARD OVER THE EASTERN
US, WHICH WILL ACCOMPLISH TWO MAIN THINGS FOR THE LOCAL AREA. ONE,
IT WILL SERVE TO LIMIT THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF THE PRECIPITATION
COMING LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING TO MAINLY SOUTH OF
THE VA/NC STATE LINE. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE..... TWO, IT
WILL ALSO ALLOW COLDER AIR TO FILTER INTO THE AREA, DROPPING
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY TO..... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND
EAST BEHIND THE SYSTEM ON SATURDAY, AND COVER MOST OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN US BY SUNDAY. WITH SOME MOISTURE IN THE REGION AND
SUBSIDENCE KEEPING WINDS LIGHT AND SKIES CLEARER, THERE IS INCREASED
POTENTIAL FOR FROST DEVELOPMENT BY SUNDAY MORNING, SINCE
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL NEAR FREEZING IN THE MOUNTAINS. WITH
WIDESPREAD GREENUP STILL UNDERWAY AFTER RECENT WARMTH AND RAINFALL,
FOLKS WITH AGRICULTURAL INTERESTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR ANY
FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES THIS WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
HAS BEEN A MIX OF FLIGHT CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EARLY
AFTERNOON, WITH LOW CLOUDS HOLDING FAST EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE,
WHERE CEILINGS ARE AROUND 1KFT OR LESS. CONDITIONS HAVE
BASICALLY BOUNCING FROM MVFR TO IFR, AND EVEN LIFR, IN SOME
AREAS THIS MORNING. STARTING TO SEE SOME CLEARING IN THE WEST,
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE REGION. PRECIPITATION
FROM THIS MORNING HAS FINALLY STARTED TO FADE AS IT REACHES THE
PIEDMONT AT THIS TIME. STILL SEEING SOME POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING, ESPECIALLY IF
THIS CLEARING CONTINUES, ALLOWING FOR MORE ATMOSPHERIC
DESTABILIZATION. WITH ANY OF THE STRONGER STORMS THAT ARE ABLE
TO DEVELOP, STRONG WINDS AND HAIL ARE POSSIBLE, AND EVEN AN
ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. ALL PRECIPITATION WILL
WIND DOWN LATER THIS EVENING, AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY. MAY SEE SOME
PATCHY FOG DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THURSDAY, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT VERY HIGH, SINCE WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN
ELEVATED, BUT STILL GENERALLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS, WHICH COULD KEEP
THE ATMOSPHERE MIXED ENOUGH TO PREVENT WIDESPREAD FOG.
CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR FOR ALL TERMINALS AFTER
12Z THURSDAY, FIRST FOR AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE, AND THEN BY
MIDDAY THURSDAY FOR AREAS IN THE WEST. WINDS WILL GUST BETWEEN 20 TO
25 KNOTS FOR THE MOUNTAINS, 15 TO 20 KNOTS FOR THE PIEDMONT BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON, INCREASING TOWARDS THE END OF THE CURRENT TAF
PERIOD.
CONFIDENCE IN THE ABOVE FORECAST IS MODERATE.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES UNTIL MIDDAY FRIDAY, WHEN SHOWERS MOVE
INTO THE AREA BOTH FROM A TROUGH TO THE NORTH, AND A SYSTEM TO
THE SOUTH. ANY RAIN COULD BRING SUB-VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS, BUT
RAIN IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY OR WIDESPREAD, THOUGH ALL
TERMINALS COULD BE IMPACTED AT TIMES THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND, WITH VFR EXPECTED AREA-WIDE.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AS
AVIATION...AS/JCB
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