760
FXUS61 KRNK 022220
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
520 PM EST FRI DEC 2 2022
SYNOPSIS
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH THE ROCKIES TODAY WILL PUSH A COLD
FRONT AND SHOWERS THROUGH THE REGION ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE AND
DRY WEATHER ARE EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION RETURNS ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
WITH ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 520 PM EST FRIDAY...
MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS IN TEMPERATURES FOR THIS EVENING
INTO TONIGHT UTILIZING THE LATEST SURFACE OBS, THEIR TRENDS,
AND BLENDED IN THE NBM. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER TO MID 40S IN
PIEDMONT. ADJUSTED POPS AND WEATHER FOR TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
LEANING TOWARDS THE NAM. MORE CHANGES LATER TONIGHT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
AS OF 140 PM EST FRIDAY...
RAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS HAVE BEEN MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN BLUE
RIDGE AND SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA THROUGH THIS MORNING, AS A
RESULT OF INCREASED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE MIDWEST. CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE AND SPREAD THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE AREA BY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RAIN AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY NOT
REACH THE MOUNTAINS UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT, AND THE PIEDMONT LATER
IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF SATURDAY.
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND MID
ATLANTIC BY LATE SATURDAY, KEEPING RAIN SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. RAIN WILL
DIMINISH QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA, BUT SOME
UPSLOPE SHOWERS MAY LINGER.
THE LOW LEVEL JET, AROUND 850MB, STRENGTHENS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
BY SATURDAY MORNING, AND SURFACE WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO
AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH, WITH HIGHER SPEEDS POSSIBLE ALONG THE
RIDGELINES AND HIGHER ELEVATION LOCATIONS. THESE GUSTY WINDS
WILL LAST THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY, BUT START TO DIMINISH
FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND MOISTURE IN THE REGION RESULTING FROM THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT AROUND THE LOW
40S, AND HIGHS TOMORROW IN THE LOW 50S TO AROUND 60.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 150 PM EST FRIDAY...
CHILLY END TO THE WEEKEND, THEN RAIN POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY...
NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST THIS PERIOD AS WILL SEE BRISK
WINDS ATOP THE RIDGES SAT NIGHT BEHIND DEPARTING FRONT. SHOULD BE
DRY THOUGH COULD SEE A FEW SPRINKLES/SHOWERS AROUND THE START OF THE
EVENING IN THE NC MTNS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE MIDWEST
OVERNIGHT AND ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC SUNDAY. FRONT THAT MOVES SOUTH
SATURDAY WILL START TO HEAD BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT MONDAY. MODEL
TRENDS HAVE DELAYED PRECIP SO LOOKING AT LOW CHANCE OF RAIN OVER THE
MOUNTAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON.
LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S SAT NIGHT, AS SOME HIGH CLOUDS SPREAD
ACROSS. WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD SUN NIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE
20S AREA WIDE, THOUGH SOME RETURN FLOW BEHIND THE HIGH MAY KEEP
HIGHER RIDGES IN THE WEST IN THE 30S.
MID LEVEL CLOUDS SUNDAY MORNING SHOULD SCATTER OUT BY AFTERNOON.
HIGHS WILL RUN ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FROM AROUND 50 IN THE
PIEDMONT TO THE LOWER TO MID 40S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.
A FEW DEGREES WARMER MONDAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS. HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 1155 AM EST FRIDAY...
JET STREAM ACTIVE THIS PERIOD WITH A DAMP PATTERN...
NOT SEEING AS MUCH OF A WINTER PRECIP THREAT THIS TIME AROUND AS
MODELS TREND NORTH WITH THE FRONT/COLDER AIR, BUT THAT'S NOT TO SAY
IT WILL NOT HAPPEN. BUT FOR NOW WILL MAINLY HAVE RAIN IN THE
FORECAST FOR MOST OF THIS PERIOD AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAVERS BACK AND
FORTH ACROSS THE AREA WHILE UPPER WAVES OF ENERGY PASS ACROSS.
WHILE IT WILL NOT RAIN THE ENTIRE PERIOD, DRY WEATHER WILL BE HARD
TO COME BY FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. DESPITE THE WET PERIOD, RAINFALL
TOTALS OVERALL LOOK TO BE AVERAGING LESS THAN AN INCH, EXCEPT HIGHER
ALONG/WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS, SO NOT FORESEEING ANY HYDRO ISSUES
EITHER.
DESPITE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES, WILL LEAN TOWARD BLENDING THEM AND
ENSEMBLES.
LOW TEMPERATURES FOR THE PERIOD WILL RUN ABOVE NORMAL DUE TO THE
CLOUD COVER MOST OF THE TIME, WHILE HIGHS FLUCTUATE FROM NEAR NORMAL
TO ABOVE NORMAL DEPENDING ON WHERE THE WARM AND COLD FRONTS ARE. WED-
THU APPEAR MILDER THAN TUESDAY AND FRIDAY. WILL HAVE TO WATCH IMPACT
OF POTENTIAL WEDGE TUESDAY AS THIS COULD CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO TURN
OUT EVEN COOLER, SO ACTUALLY LOWERED THEM COMPARED TO MODEL
GUIDANCE, BUT STILL IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S FOR TUESDAY.
BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK, CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW AS MODELS DIVERGE
EVEN MORESO AS GFS CLEARS THINGS OUT BRINGING IN COLDER AIR BEHIND
THE FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT WHILE THE ECMWF/CMC HANG ONTO A FRONTAL
SYSTEM, THOUGH UPPER LEVEL PATTERN STARTS SHOWING A RIDGE PUSHING
INTO THE EASTERN U.S. BY SATURDAY.
AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 1235 PM EST FRIDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. SUB VFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AS RAIN ENTERS THE AREA FROM THE WEST
DURING THE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING HOURS, AND PERSISTING THROUGH
THE DAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES EASTWARD.
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS HAVE BEEN MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST WEST
VIRGINA AND THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE, AND THIS TREND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. CEILINGS WILL LOWER THROUGHOUT THE
NIGHT.
RAIN WILL REACH THE MOUNTAINS AFTER MIDNIGHT, AND SPREAD
EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY, AND LOWER
VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY WITH THE RAIN SHOWERS. RAIN WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THIS TAF VALID PERIOD, BUT WILL
LIKELY DIMINISH BY SATURDAY EVENING.
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH HIGHER
WIND SPEEDS ACROSS THE RIDGELINES AND HIGHER ELEVATION
LOCATIONS. AS THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES, LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
WILL INCREASE LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING, SO HAVE
INCLUDED LLWS FOR ALL TAF SITES. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL
LIKELY DECREASE BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON, TOWARDS THE END OF THIS
TAF VALID PERIOD.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
WINDS TURN THE THE WEST THEN NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
WIND SPEEDS DIMINISHING ON SATURDAY NIGHT.
VFR CONDITIONS RETURN FOR SUNDAY BEFORE YET ANOTHER FRONT
BRINGS A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SUB- VFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY.
EQUIPMENT
AS OF 700 PM EST THURSDAY...
DANVILLE (DAN) ASOS IS BACK IN SERVICE. THE WIND SENSOR IS STILL
OFFLINE AND WILL BE TURNED BACK ON AFTER MAINTENANCE IS
COMPLETED FRIDAY.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...KK/AS
SHORT TERM...WP
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...AMS/PM/AS
EQUIPMENT...PM
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