443
FXUS61 KRNK 290701
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
301 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
EARLY MORNING AVIATION UPDATE.
FIRE DANGER RISK IS ELEVATED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING DUE TO
BREEZY SOUTH WINDS, LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY, AND DRY FUELS SUCH AS
LEAF LITTER AND DRY GRASS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SEASONABLE WEATHER GIVES WAY TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
MIDWEEK ALONG WITH RAIN CHANCES RETURNING FOR LATE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: SEASONABLE WEATHER GIVES WAY TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES MIDWEEK, ALONG WITH RAIN CHANCES RETURNING FOR LATE
WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL TODAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE
50S/60S. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL THEN SHIFT
OFFSHORE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY, WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW TO RETURN TO THE REGION. DUE TO THIS FLOW, WARMER AIR WILL
SURGE NORTH, CAUSING TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE 60S/70S FOR
MONDAY, AND TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY TUESDAY INTO MIDWEEK, WHERE
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S/80S. DESPITE THE WARMER AIR, RELATIVELY
DRY AIR WILL LINGER, KEEPING RAIN CHANCES VERY LOW AND LIKELY
CONFINED TO THE WV MOUNTAINS, THOUGH ANY RAIN WOULD BE ISOLATED
AND VERY LIGHT ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. QUIET WEATHER PERSISTS
THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY WHEN THE NEXT CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD RAIN
ARRIVES WITH A COLD FRONT.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL MOVE
EAST AND REMAIN WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA, BUT THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE AND STALL SOMEWHERE OVER THE MID-
ATLANTIC. THIS WILL BRING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA AS THE TIMING OF THE FRONT'S ARRIVAL
IS EXPECTED TO BE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON OR EVENING ON
WEDNESDAY. AS THE FRONT STALLS, THE LOCATION WILL BE IMPORTANT,
AS THE FRONT WILL ALLOW SHOWERS TO REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN WHERE EXACTLY THE
FRONT STALLS, AS MODELS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT SHOWING THE FRONT
ANYWHERE FROM THE WASHINGTON DC AREA TO THE CAROLINAS.
NONETHELESS, WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO
THE REGION FOR LATE NEXT WEEK NO MATTER THE LOCATION OF THE
FRONT.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT ALL AIRPORTS THROUGH THE 29/06Z
TAF PERIOD. WINDS FROM THE SOUTH THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE FROM
LESS THAN 5KTS AFTER 14Z, WITH GUSTS IN THE 15KT TO 20KT RANGE
THROUGH 23Z FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST, BEFORE RETURNING TO NEAR
CALM FOR THE NIGHT. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY SKC WITH
OCCASIONAL PASSING HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH TODAY, THOUGH WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND LOWER TONIGHT.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, AND MAY IMPACT AIRPORTS ALONG AND NORTH OF A BLF-ROA-
LYH LINE WITH OCCASIONAL REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY AND CEILINGS.
OUTSIDE OF THAT ACTIVITY, VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AND
MAY GUST UP TO 20 KNOTS EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH THE PERIOD. A
COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE NEXT WIDESPREAD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AND POTENTIAL SUB-VFR CEILINGS BEGINNING WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE ELEVATED FOR TODAY DUE TO RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES FORECASTED TO RANGE BETWEEN 17 AND 25 PERCENT FOR
MUCH OF THE LOWER MID-ATLANTIC, WHILE WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING
LATE THIS MORNING TO GUST TO 15 TO 25 MPH FROM THE SOUTH.
RECENT DRY CONDITIONS HAVE ALLOWED FINE FUELS TO BECOME MORE
SUSCEPTIBLE TO CARRY FIRE. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE FORECASTED
TO EASE FOR MONDAY AS WINDS FROM THE GULF COAST REGION WILL
BRING HIGHER HUMIDITY.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JCB/NF
AVIATION...NF
FIRE WEATHER...NF
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