094
FXUS61 KRNK 120044
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
844 PM EDT SAT JUL 11 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION UPDATED.
SATURDAY ADDED TO THE FORECAST.
TEMPERATURES WERE ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY UP FOR TONIGHT'S LOWS GIVEN
THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION.
KEY MESSAGES
KEY MESSAGE 1: SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS TROUGH MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING COOLER EACH DAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2: MUCH OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY WITH WARM/HOT CONDITIONS
FOR MID-WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 3: RETURN OF MORE ORGANIZED SHOWERS/STORMS FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING ON THE WARM/HOT SIDE.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS TROUGH MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING COOLER EACH DAY.
THIS AFTERNOON A COLD FRONT WAS MAKING A SLOW SOUTHEAST PROGRESSION
TOWARDS OUR REGION THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. WARM AND MOIST AIR IN
ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT, HAS BEEN HELPING TO FUEL SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT, AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DO SO
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR REGION HAVE
EXPERIENCED THE MOST DIRECT AND INDIRECT SUNSHINE (THROUGH THIN
CIRRUS) THIS TODAY AND AFTERNOON, AND AS SUCH HAVE DEVELOPED THE
MOST SURFACE INSTABLILTY/CAPE. WE WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH THIS REGION
AS A FOCUS FOR POTENTIALLY THE BEST DEVELOPMENT, AND ALSO WHERE IF
ANY STORMS DO BECOME STRONG ENOUGH FOR STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS, THIS
AREA WILL HAVE A BETTER POTENTIAL THAN LOCATIONS WHICH HAVE SEEN
MORE CLOUD COVER THAN SUNSHINE TODAY.
OVERNIGHT, WITH THE FRONT STILL APPROACHING THE REGION, WE ARE NOT
EXPECTING ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION TO DIE OFF AROUND OR EVEN SHORTLY
AFTER SUNSET. SHOWERS, AND A FEW STORMS, WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
AREA OVERNIGHT, WITH THE BEST COVERAGE MORE LIKELY ACROSS NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA NEAREST THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
FOR SUNDAY, THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS OUR REGION DURING
THE DAY. CONCURRENTLY, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING SOUTHEAST
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO AND ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE TWO
FEATURES WILL WORK IN TANDEM TO ALLOW FOR GENEROUS COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS, BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A BIT LESS AS
THE EXTENT DEPTH OF THE TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE INCREASES, DECREASING
THE POTENTIAL FOR NOTABLE CAPE. WE ALSO WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR
GREATER POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN THANKS TO INCREASED PW
VALUES AND TRAINING OF CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT. INCREASED CLOUD
COVER AND PRECIPITATION, AND A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA, WILL
LEAD TO TEMPERATURES ON HIGH TEMPERATURES SOME FIVE TO TEN DEGREES
COOLER THAN THOSE EXPECTED TODAY.
FOR MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE PROGRESSING
SOUTH OF THE AREA ALL WHILE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STARTS NOSING
SOUTH ALONG THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS. ON MONDAY. SOUTHWESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA MAY STILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE EXITING FRONT
TO HAVE SHOWERS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE THE FRONT. EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA MORE LIKELY WILL EXPERIENCE PRECIPITATION AS THE RESULT
OF A NORTHEAST TO EAST LOW LEVEL LOW OF RESIDUAL MOISTURE BEING
POOLED ALONG THE APPALACHIANS, YIELDING LOW CLOUDS AND CONDITIONS
WITH A LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE PATTERN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COMPARABLE
OR PERHAPS SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN THOSE OF SUNDAY.
FOR TUESDAY, DRIER AIR WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE REGION FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH. PERHAPS THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA AND NEIGHBORING
HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA MAY CONTINUE WITHIN A COLD AIR
DAMMING PATTERN THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL START TRENDING
MILDER.
KEY MESSAGE 2: MUCH OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY WITH WARM/HOT CONDITIONS
FOR MID-WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP MUCH OF THE REGION DRY DURING THE MIDDLE
PART OF THE WEEK. A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
THESE REGIONS WILL BE FARTHEST AWAY FROM THE CENTER OF THE HIGH, AND
BY THURSDAY THE NEXT APPROACHING WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BE OVER PARTS
OF THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
TREND MILDER EACH DAY, SO THAT BY THURSDAY, VALUES ABOUT FIVE TO TEN
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE AREA. WHEN
CONSIDERING HUMIDITY AS WELL, AND WE WILL BE LOOKING AT MUCH OF THE
PIEDMONT OF VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA EXPERIENCING LATE AFTERNOON
HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND OR A LITTLE OVER 100 DEGREES.
KEY MESSAGE 3: RETURN OF MORE ORGANIZED SHOWERS/STORMS FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING ON THE WARM/HOT SIDE.
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS
EASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. IN RESPONSE TO BOTH THE
APPROACH OF THIS FEATURE, AND THE EXIT EAST OF THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE, WE WILL SEE A RESURGENCE OF SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS OUR
REGION. THIS WILL MEAN AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE, AND
INCREASING POTENTIAL OF AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH
THE BEST COVERAGE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON
THE ABOVE AVERAGE SIDE.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING, WHICH MAY IMPACT LYH AND LWB.
CAM GUIDANCE AGAIN SHOWS OVERNIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY LINGERING
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS PRIOR TO HEAVIER SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE PUSHING INTO TENNESSEE TONIGHT AND INTO
SUNDAY, THE AREA WILL LIKELY DEVELOP MVFR TO IFR CIGS AND VSBYS
DURING THE LATE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS SUNDAY. THESE
RESTRICTIONS LOOK TO LINGER THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AS
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY OVER
THE REGION.
WINDS OVERALL LOOK TO REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT AROUND 5
KNOTS OR LESS; HOWEVER, THEY LOOK TO TRANSITION FROM NORTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
EXPECT SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY/MONDAY
NIGHT ALONG WITH AREAS SUB-VFR CONDITIONS FOR BOTH CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITY.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST LOCATIONS TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.
PREVAILING WINDS FOR MOST LOCATIONS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL
GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 7 KTS.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DS
AVIATION...DS/EB
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