785
FXUS61 KRNK 180624
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
224 AM EDT FRI SEP 18 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH DAILY CHANCES OF
SHOWERS/STORMS INTO NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS/STORMS. SUMMERTIME
PATTERN CONTINUES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, THEN A COOL DOWN.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS/STORMS.
SUMMERTIME PATTERN CONTINUES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK THEN A COOL
DOWN.
AT THE SURFACE, A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC TODAY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, A MOIST AIRMASS WILL BE IN
PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA . SURFACE DEWPOINTS WITHIN THIS
AIRMASS WILL BE IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70 F. AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES
WARM TODAY, AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP ALONG
THE MOIST AXIS. IN RESPONSE TO SURFACE HEATING, SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM IN THE MOUNTAINS AND MOVE SOUTHWARD
INTO THE PIEDMONT AND FOOTHILLS. THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT
MAY BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT AN ISOLATED WIND-DAMAGE THREAT, MAINLY
IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WHEN LOW- LEVEL LAPSE
RATES BECOME STEEPEST, ESPECIALLY ALONG/SOUTH OF THE VA/NC
BORDER.
THE FRONT SHIFT SOUTH SATURDAY BUT CLOSE ENOUGH TO KEEP
SHOWER/STORM CHANCES AROUND WITH HIGHER PROBABILITIES OVER THE
SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE, AND LESS ACROSS THE CENTRAL VA PIEDMONT.
AIRMASS SHOULD BE A LITTLE MORE STABLE SO NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING
SEVERE.
THE FRONT WORKS NORTH SUNDAY AS A WARM FRONT, THEN DROPS AGAIN
EARLY NEXT WEEK, WHILE UPPER TROUGH STARTS TO DIG SOUTHEAST INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY. SHOULD SEE AN UPTICK IN RAIN CHANCES MONDAY-
TUESDAY. BY MID TO LATE WEEK THE FRONTS SHOULD BE EAST AND
SOUTH OF US AND HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES FROM THE NORTH. HOWEVER,
THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS NORTHWEST OF THE AREA AND WILL KEEP
SHOWER CHANCES AROUND WHILE TEMPERATURES COOL TO BELOW NORMAL.
FOR MOST, THIS WILL BE MUCH NEEDED RAIN, BUT STILL OVERALL
DOESN'T LOOK LIKE A COMPLETE WASHOUT. JUST KEEP THE UMBRELLAS
HANDY AT TIMES.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
MOISTURE FROM THURSDAY SHOWERS AND VALLEY INVERSIONS WILL
LIKELY TO LEAD TO SOME PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT WITH PERIOD OF DENSE
FOG POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS BETWEEN 09Z/2AM AND
13Z/10AM FRIDAY ESPECIALLY LWB.
FOG BURNS OFF BY MID MORNING WITH VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY.
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH WILL BRING ANOTHER OPPORTUNITY
FOR SCATTERED STORMS FRIDAY AND POSSIBLE SUB-VFR CIGS/VSBY IF
STORMS MOVE OVER TERMINALS. DUE TO THE SCATTERED NATURE ONLY
HAVE VCTS IN ALL TERMINALS.
AFTER 00Z/SAT SHOULD SEE CONVECTION WANE THOUGH POTENTIAL SUB-
VFR CIGS MAY OCCUR WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY CLOSE.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWER/STORM CHANCES THROUGH TUESDAY ESPECIALLY
OVER THE MOUNTAINS. FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL OVER THE AREA
THIS WEEKEND WHICH MAY LEAD TO LOW CIGS BOTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY IN ADDITION TO VALLEY FOG...ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT AND
DURING THE MORNING BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...PM/SH/WP
AVIATION...PM/SH/WP
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