496
FXUS61 KRNK 170812
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
412 AM EDT FRI JUL 17 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NEW AVIATION DISCUSSION.
KEY MESSAGES
1) EXCESSIVE WARMTH IS FORECASTED AGAIN FOR TODAY, WITH AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE SUPPORTING ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.
2) PASSAGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVERTOP AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ON
SATURDAY.
3) SCATTERED DAILY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST FROM SUNDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...EXCESSIVE WARMTH IS FORECASTED AGAIN FOR TODAY,
WITH AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE SUPPORTING ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY INCREASE, AND WILL SUPPORT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DURING
THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN CONTINUED UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE
LOWER MID-ATLANTIC AND THE CAROLINAS, BELIEVE THAT STORMS WILL
REMAIN DISORGANIZED, BUT GIVEN STRONG HEATING ALLOWING CAPE
VALUES TO RANGE FROM 1,500 TO 2,000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON, AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING INTO THE 1.4 TO 1.6 INCH
RANGE, CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW STORMS BECOMING CAPABLE OF STRONG TO
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN. THE AFORE-
MENTIONED RIDGING WILL ALSO SUPPORT AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM THE MID 80S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS TO
THE MID 90S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT, WHICH IS TAKING INTO ACCOUNT
SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES IN CANADA HELPING TO LIMIT TEMPERATURES A
COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER. AS SUCH, HEAT INDICES WILL REACH INTO
THE 100 TO 103 DEGREE RANGE TODAY DURING MID-AFTERNOON ACROSS
SOUTHSIDE VIRGINIA INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.
KEY MESSAGE 2...PASSAGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVERTOP
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS ON SATURDAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO PASS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION ON SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE MID-ATLANTIC. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
STORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE WITH EARLY AFTERNOON
HEATING, AND THEN GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE PIEDMONT
DURING LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THE DISTURBANCE WILL
PROVIDE THE SUPPORT NEEDED FOR STORMS TO BECOME SCATTERED IN
COVERAGE, AND CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. AS SUCH,
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS HIGHLIGHTED MUCH OF THE
PIEDMONT IN A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, WHILE A
MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS. MOST STORMS ARE FORECASTED TO EXIT OUR AREA TO THE
EAST BY AROUND 8 PM, THOUGH A FEW MAY LINGER INTO LATE EVENING.
THESE STORMS WILL ALSO BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS,
BUT ARE EXPECTED TO PASS EAST FAST ENOUGH TO LIMIT THE POTENTIAL
FOR FLASH FLOODING.
KEY MESSAGE 3...SCATTERED DAILY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST FROM SUNDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT MAY STALL NEAR THE UPPER OHIO RIVER
VALLEY INTO NORTHERN VIRGINIA ON SUNDAY, WHICH WOULD FOCUS THE
GREATER CHANCES OF RAINFALL FURTHER TO THE SOUTH. AS SUCH, WILL
BE KEEPING AN EYE OUT FOR AN INCREASED FLOODING THREAT WITH
POSSIBLE TRAINING OF STORMS ALONG THE BOUNDARY, THOUGH
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AS TO WHERE ANY FLOODING MAY OCCUR.
OTHERWISE, THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK LOOKS TO BE
SUPPORTIVE OF GENERAL CHANCES FOR DAYTIME SHOWERS/STORMS, THEN
MORE ORGANIZED OR WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT COULD OCCUR AGAIN
WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
POTENTIALLY TRAVERSING THE AREA.
AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE RIVER VALLEY FOG HAS DEVELOPED
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA INTO SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA THIS MORNING IN OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS. EXPECT THIS
FOG TO BURN OFF BETWEEN 12Z AND 14Z THIS MORNING GIVEN STRONG
HEATING. INCREASED MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA, THOUGH DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE TO
ADD INTO THE TAFS. WINDS ARE FORECASTED TO REMAIN LESS THAN
10KTS AREAWIDE.
OUTLOOK SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
SHOWER AND STORMS CHANCES WILL BECOME SCATTERED IN COVERAGE
ACROSS THE LOWER MID-ATLANTIC SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK,
WITH POTENTIAL SUB-MVFR OR CONDITIONS. MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG/LOW
STRATUS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE EACH MORNING. A WESTERLY WIND WITH
SPEEDS BETWEEN 6 AND 12 KTS WILL DEVELOP ON SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY, WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS AS HIGH AS 25 KTS.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...AIR QUALITY ALERT FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR VAZ019-020-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059.
NC...AIR QUALITY ALERT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR NCZ004>006.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...NF
AVIATION...NF
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