463
FXUS61 KRNK 182310
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
610 PM EST SUN JAN 18 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AN EXTREME COLD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR WESTERN GREENBRIER
COUNTY AS A POWERFUL ARCTIC AIRMASS PREPARES TO SETTLE OVER THE
REGION. DANGEROUS CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING, JANUARY 20, 2026, WITH WIND CHILLS PROJECTED TO DROP AS
LOW AS -15F.
KEY MESSAGES
1) VERY COLD AND DRY AIR TO DOMINATE THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEK.
2) A FRONTAL SYSTEM POTENTIALLY ARRIVES LATER THIS WEEK.
3) FRONTAL SYSTEMS TO BRING ADDITIONAL CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION LATE NEXT WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: VERY COLD AND DRY AIR TO DOMINATE THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEK.
THE MAIN HEADLINE OF THIS WEEK IS THE FRIGID AIR MASS THAT WILL MOVE
THROUGH MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY. A POTENT ARCTIC FRONT WILL CHARGE
THROUGH THE AREA TOMORROW (MONDAY). WINDS WILL PICK UP ACROSS THE
REGION, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. IN THIS
LOCATION, SUSTAINED WINDS WILL LIKELY BE BETWEEN 10-15 MPH WITH
GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH. THE GUSTY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY
MORNING BUT START TO SUBSIDE BY TUESDAY EVENING. TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY MORNINGS WILL LIKELY BE THE COLDEST (AIR TEMPERATURE WISE)
WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND IN THE
TEENS TOWARDS THE EAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL LIKELY BE
IN THE 20S TOWARDS THE WEST AND IN THE 30S TOWARDS THE EAST. WITH
THE WIND, WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE PRETTY DARN LOW. (ONE SIDE NOTE,
THESE WIND CHILLS ARE NOT FORECAST TO BE AS LOW AS INITIALLY THOUGHT
A FEW DAYS AGO, BUT WILL STILL BE VERY COLD). MONDAY AND WEDNESDAY
MORNINGS WILL HAVE WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS, BUT
TUESDAY MORNING WILL HAVE THE COLDEST WIND CHILLS. ON THIS MORNING,
WIND CHILLS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MAY BE AROUND ZERO AND UP TO -10F
AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY WILL BE CONSIDERED FOR
SOME OF THE MORE WESTERN MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES FOR TUESDAY MORNING.
WESTERN GREENBRIER MAY HAVE WIND CHILLS UP TO -15F WHICH WOULD
WARRANT AN EXTREME COLD WARNING. PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE CONSIDERED
IN ANTICIPATION OF THIS COLD SNAP.
KEY MESSAGE 2: A FRONTAL SYSTEM POTENTIALLY ARRIVES LATER THIS WEEK.
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO BRING PRECIPITATION AS
EARLY AS THURSDAY. TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM IS DEPENDENT ON HOW QUICKLY
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC GETS PUSHED
OUT INTO THE OCEAN. AS SEEN IN PAST WEATHER PATTERNS, THE FRONT
COULD BE STALLED TO OUR NORTH IF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM DECIDES TO
STUBBORNLY NOT MOVE. SINCE THE TIMING IS IN QUESTION, SO WILL BE THE
TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION TYPE AS A RESULT.
KEY MESSAGE 3: FRONTAL SYSTEMS TO BRING ADDITIONAL CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION LATE NEXT WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
AFTER A DRY FRIDAY, AN ELONGATED TROUGH ALOFT SPREADING FROM NEW
ENGLAND TO MINNESOTA WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT SOUTH. THIS WILL BRING A
FEW SEPARATE IMPULSES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION FOR LATE IN THE
WORK WEEK ALONG WITH A COLD FRONT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. NCEP IVT
FORECASTS SHOW SOME MOISTURE MOVING UP FROM THE GULF COAST STATES
AHEAD OF THE FRONT, AND THIS ALONG WITH AVAILABLE FORCING FOR ASCENT
IS ENOUGH TO INCLUDE A CHANCE OF SNOW FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND A CHANCE
OF RAIN/SNOW FOR THE PIEDMONT. ENSEMBLE STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES FOR
PWATS LOOK NEAR OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS EVENT, THUS MAYBE
LOOKING AT A RUN OF THE MILL SCENARIO, OR IT IS POSSIBLE MUCH OF THE
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS TO OUR SOUTH. REGARDLESS, AFTER HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S AND 40S SATURDAY, SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
LOOK MUCH COLDER AGAIN, WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO GET ABOVE FREEZING
IN SE WV, SW VA, AND THE WESTERN NC MOUNTAINS.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS EVENING, A DRIER AIRMASS
WILL CLEAR LINGERING CLOUDS, THOUGH LOW CLOUDS MAY MOVE BACK IN
NEAR KBLF AND KLWB MONDAY MORNING.
BIGGER STORY FOR MONDAY INVOLVES STRENGTHENING WESTERLY WINDS.
EXPECT GUSTS BETWEEN 25 AND 35 KNOTS IN THE MOUNTAINS, WITH A
PROBABILITY OF GUSTS REACHING 45 KNOTS OVER HIGHER PEAKS. IN
AREAS LIKE KDAN AND KLYH, SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS MAY GUST BETWEEN
20 AND 25 KNOTS DURING THE DAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY, COINCIDENT WITH BELOW
FREEZING TEMPERATURES. VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON, WITH DRY WEATHER UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. CLOUD COVER
INCREASES LATE WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM, WHICH
COULD BRING SOME WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY.
BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER FOLLOWS, BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF
POSSIBLE MIXED PRECIPITATION OVER THE WEEKEND.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING FOR WVZ508.
DISCUSSION...CG/RCS/SH
AVIATION...AS/RCS
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