588
FXUS61 KRNK 281059
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
659 AM EDT WED OCT 28 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MAINTAINING A FIRE WEATHER SECTION FOR THOSE CONCERNED WITH
BURNING CONDITIONS.
CLOUD FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. UPDATED AVN FORECAST TO
ACCOUNT FOR IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT THIS MORNING.
MODELS STILL ON TRACK FOR LOW LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING FROM I-95
CORRIDOR INTO THE PIEDMONT AND BLUE RIDGE FROM THE EAST THIS
MORNING WHILE UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS OVERSPREAD THE WESTERN CWA FROM
THE WEST.
KEY MESSAGES
DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY, TRENDING WET FOR SUNDAY
AND PERSISTING THROUGH THE FIRST FULL WEEK OF NOVEMBER. FRIDAY
WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THIS WEEK.
DISCUSSION
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS STILL IN CONTROL. THIS
WILL MAINTAIN THE DRY WEATHER THEME IN SPITE OF PERIODIC
CLOUDINESS. LOW LEVEL EASTERLY WINDS WILL TRANSPORT SHALLOW
LAYER OF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA FROM THE EAST TODAY...
LINGERING TONIGHT BEFORE WANING THURSDAY. A TRANSIENT AREA OF
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS (CIRRUS) WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE REGION TODAY, EXITING THE REGION TONIGHT. THIS UPPER LEVEL
CLOUD ELEMENT IS THE REMNANTS OF THE WEATHER SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT
FLASH FLOODING TO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES THIS PAST WEEKEND...THE
SYSTEM NOW REDUCED TO A BAND OF CIRRUS.
ALL OF THIS EXTRA CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPERATURES
MUTED TODAY...BUT STILL CLOSE TO THE SEASONAL NORMALS. THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK IS EXPECTED TO BE FRIDAY AS WINDS TURN
WESTERLY, SKIES CLEARING AND GIVING A BOOST TO THE NUMBERS.
MODEL OUTPUT STATISTICS (MOS) INDICATE HIGHS A FULL 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL FOR FRIDAY WHICH MEANS 70S FOR MOST FOLKS AND
AROUND 80 DEGREES IN THE PIEDMONT.
AS FOR THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT
WITH ADVERTISEMENT OF A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TO CROSS THE
COUNTRY OVER THE WEEKEND, BRINGING MOISTURE INTO THE AREA
BEGINNING SUNDAY NOVEMBER 1ST. SOME RAIN MAY SNEAK IN HERE LATE
HALLOWEEN NIGHT, BUT ALL MODELS STILL INSIST ON DRY CONDITIONS
FOR THE TRICK-OR-TREAT CROWD SATURDAY EVENING.
STRENGTH OF THE INITIAL WAVE SUNDAY APPEARS WEAK, BUT MODELS DO
INDICATE SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW WHICH SHOULD ENHANCE THE RAIN
CHANCE ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE. A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES ARE
FORECAST TO FOLLOW DURING THE WEEK, SO IT LOOKS PROMISING FOR
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL, AND THIS SHOULD HELP SNUFF THE LATE
OCTOBER DRY SPELL.
AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
MULTI-LAYER CLOUDS EXPECTED TODAY. EASTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS
WILL TRANSPORT MOISTURE FROM THE ATLANTIC COAST AND I-95
CORRIDOR WESTWARD TOWARD THE BLUE RIDGE WITH LAYER OF MVFR TO
IFR CIGS OVER THE PIEDMONT THIS MORNING WITH IMPACTS TO AIR
TERMINALS MAINLY EAST OF KROA. MEANWHILE, HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS,
CLOUD BASES AOA 20KFT WILL OVERSPREAD THE MOUNTAINS FROM THE
WEST THIS MORNING...PASSING OVERTOP OF THE LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS
EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON.
MODELS SUGGEST THE LOW LEVEL CIGS SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT DURING
THE AFTERNOON, BUT THEN THICKEN AND LOWER AGAIN TONIGHT. TAFS
FOLLOW THIS TREND WITH ONSET OF LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING
IMPROVING THIS AFTERNOON, THEN REDEVELOPING TONIGHT. UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL BE TRANSIENT, PASSING OVER THE AREA DURING THE DAY,
THEN CLEARING ALOFT TONIGHT.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
EXPECTING MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND STABLE CONDITIONS EARLY
THURSDAY WITH SUB-VFR, IMPROVING TO WIDESPREAD VFR THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE CLOUDS LIFT AND DISSIPATE. FRIDAY IS EXPECTED
TO BE VFR WITH LITTLE OR NO CLOUD COVER. CLOUDS INCREASE OVER
THE WEEKEND TRENDING SUB-VFR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS A STORM
SYSTEM MOVES FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION.
FIRE WEATHER
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH WITH
NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT APPRECIABLE
CHANCE FOR RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE SUNDAY WITH ADDITIONAL
OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF NOVEMBER.
WITH RESPECT TO THE NEXT FEW DAYS, TODAY WILL FEATURE
VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF CLOUD COVER, STABLE CONDITIONS WITH
POOR MIXING. THURSDAY WILL BE SIMILAR, BUT IMPROVING DURING
THE AFTERNOON. FRIDAY IS EXPECTED TO THE MOST FAVORABLE
WITH RESPECT TO BURNING CONDITIONS, TEMPERATURES WARMING
10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PIEDMONT
MAY REACH 80 DEGREES.
TRANSPORT WINDS WILL BE FROM AN EASTERLY DIRECTION TODAY
AND NEAR CALM THURSDAY. FRIDAY WILL BE THE BEST DAY FOR
VENTILATION AND MIXING, TRANSPORT WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST.
PATTERN CHANGE WILL BRING ABOVE NORMAL CHANCE FOR RAINFALL
NOVEMBER 1-7.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...PM
AVIATION...PM
FIRE WEATHER...PM
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