811
FXUS61 KRNK 310639
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
239 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
A SMALL CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN ADDED TO AREAS FROM THE
ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS TO THE CENTRAL PIEDMONT OF VIRGINIA FOR
THIS AFTERNOON. IN SPITE OF HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS AT THE LOW AND
MID LEVELS, A STRONG WAVE OF VORTICITY IS FORECAST TO PASS
THROUGH AND MAY TRIGGER SOME THUNDERSTORMS. THESE STORMS WILL
HEAVILY STRUGGLE TO FORM AND LIFT SO THE CONVECTION OUTLOOK WILL
BE A TUG OF WAR OF WHICH ATMOSPHERIC FORCES ARE STRONGER.
AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
1) WARMING TREND INTO THE WEEK.
2) NEXT BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION BY FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: WARMING TREND INTO THE WEEK.
A MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY EASTWARD THIS WEEK, WITH
ITS CENTER POSSIBLY OVER THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC BY THURSDAY.
THE INCREASED HEIGHTS WILL SUPPORT A CONTINUAL WARMING TREND
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES POTENTIALLY 10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
THAN SEASONAL AVERAGES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 80S AND 90S
WITH PARTS OF THE PIEDMONT REACHING 100 DEGREES BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS, COMBINED WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S TO LOWER
70S, WILL RESULT IN SOME HIGH HEAT INDICES. THE MAXIMUM HEAT
INDEX EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE COULD GET INTO THE LOWER 100S. IF
CONFIDENCE INCREASES OF THESE VALUES REACHING 105 DEGREES OR
HIGHER, HEAT ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED. EVEN IF THIS CRITERIA IS
NOT REACHED, THESE ARE VERY HOT TEMPERATURES FOR SEPTEMBER
STANDARDS AND THE PUBLIC IS ENCOURAGED TO STAY COOL AND HYDRATED
TO AVOID ANY HEAT RELATED ILLNESSES. A COLD FRONT MAY ARRIVE BY
THIS WEEKEND TO LOWER SOME OF THE TEMPERATURES.
KEY MESSAGE 2: NEXT BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION BY FRIDAY.
THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL DEGRADE AND
POSSIBLY SPLIT IN TWO BY THIS WEEKEND. THE SYNOPTIC SET UP
ACROSS CONUS WILL THEN BE A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE GREAT PLAINS
TO OUR WEST AND A POTENT MID-LEVEL LOW TO THE NORTHEAST IN NEW
ENGLAND AND CANADA. THIS WILL BRING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TO THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND PERMIT THE PASSAGE OF ANY SHORTWAVES TRAVELING
IN BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND TROUGH. ONE OF THESE DISTURBANCES MAY
PASS THROUGH BY FRIDAY AND SUPPLY A WIDESPREAD CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION. THE INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY BE PRESENT WITH WARM
AND HUMID CONDITIONS PERSISTING, BUT THE BETTER WIND SHEAR LOOKS
TO BE TO OUR NORTH. LAPSE RATES AS WELL LOOK TO BE
UNDERWHELMING AND RANGING BETWEEN 5.5-6.0 C/KM. SOME MACHINE
LEARNING MODELS STILL HIGHLIGHT THIS AREA FOR SEVERE WEATHER
LATER IN THE WEEK BUT MUCH OF THE CONVECTION AND ITS
ORGANIZATION WILL BE BASED ON HOW THE UPPER AIR PATTERN
MANIFESTS. IF THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PUSHES A LITTLE SOUTHWARD
AND ALLOW FOR BETTER WIND SHEAR AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT,
THEN CONFIDENCE WOULD INCREASE FOR SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL.
UNTIL THEN, THIS WILL BE A WEATHER SETUP TO OBSERVE IN THE
COMING DAYS.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY FOR ALL AIRPORTS ON MONDAY OUTSIDE OF EARLY
MORNING FOG AT KLWB AND KBCB. FOG HAS ALREADY STARTED IN
LEWISBURG AND WILL LIKELY PERSIST UNTIL SUNRISE. WINDS WILL BE
CALM TO LIGHT FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT AND PICK UP AGAIN LATER
THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE NORTHWEST AT AROUND 5-10 KNOTS. SOME
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE REGION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON BUT PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE VERY LOW DUE TO A
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A MID-LEVEL RIDGE MOVING IN FROM THE
WEST. IF ANY OF THESE STORMS MANAGE TO POP UP AT A TERMINAL,
VISIBILITIES MAY BE BRIEFLY LOWERED DUE TO THE RAINFALL
ASSOCIATED WITH IT.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
VFR IS THE EXPECTED DOMINANT CONDITION FOR ALL TERMINALS
OUTSIDE OF ADDITIONAL EARLY MORNING FOG FOR THE USUAL AIRPORTS.
THE NEXT BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ARRIVES LATER IN THE
WEEK, ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A MID-LEVEL STORM
SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT MAY PASS THROUGH AND PROVIDE A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO ALL TERMINALS. WINDS ARE STILL
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND FROM THE NORTHWEST OUTSIDE OF
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTED
TO INCREASE WIND GUSTS SIGNIFICANTLY WHEN IT CROSSES.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CG
AVIATION...CG
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page