132
FXUS61 KRNK 240739
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
339 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
TEMPERATURES LOWERED FOR TODAY, ALONG WITH RAIN CHANCES AS THE
WEDGE LINGERS UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON. STORMS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE
DAY ONCE THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA.
KEY MESSAGES
KEY MESSAGE 1: THE PATTERN REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR DAILY
SHOWERS/STORMS FOR THE ENTIRE UPCOMING WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 2: ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE DUE TO
REPEATED ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/STORMS EACH DAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: THE PATTERN REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR DAILY
SHOWERS/STORMS FOR THE ENTIRE UPCOMING WEEK.
A HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE ACROSS THE AREA WILL BEGIN TO ERODE TODAY,
ALLOWING A WARM FRONT TO LIFT NORTH. AS THIS OCCURS, THE
PERSISTENT STRATIFORM RAIN WILL END, AND MORE SCATTERED CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL OCCUR. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER TODAY
THAN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS THANKS TO THIS, WITH HIGHS EXPECTED
TO REACH INTO THE 60S/70S. THE TIMING OF THE WARM FRONT LIFTING
NORTH OF THE AREA COULD DRASTICALLY AFFECT HIGH TEMPERATURES
TODAY IF THE PASSAGE OCCURS LATER IN THE DAY. SKIES WILL REMAIN
OVERCAST, WITH SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE AREA AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH, INCREASING LIFT.
NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED, AND COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS
WILL BE LOWER THAN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS.
SOUTHERLY MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO FEED INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY,
WITH DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH MIDWEEK AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS FRONT STALLS AND BECOMES
EAST/WEST ORIENTED ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC TUESDAY, WHICH WILL
KEEP UNSETTLED WEATHER IN PLACE THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY. THE
STALLED FRONT DRIFTS SOUTH FOR THE LATE WEEK, WHICH WILL REDUCE
BUT NOT ELIMINATE RAIN CHANCES, ESPECIALLY FOR OUR SOUTHERN
LOCATIONS.
KEY MESSAGE 2: ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE DUE TO
REPEATED ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/STORMS EACH DAY.
WITH PLENTIFUL MOISTURE FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK, AND A STALLED
FRONT ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE WEEK AHEAD, REPEATED ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL CONTINUE. VERY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES NEAR 2" WILL ALLOW FOR EFFICIENT RAINFALL TO OCCUR, WHICH
WILL ALLOW RAIN TOTALS TO ADD UP, WITH 1-2" OF ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL ON TOP OF WHAT HAS ALREADY FALLEN THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS. MOST OF THIS RAIN WILL BE ABSORBED BY THE GROUND AND
VEGETATION DUE TO OUR AREA BEING IN SEVERE TO EXTREME DROUGHT.
HOWEVER, URBAN, LOW-LYING AND FLOOD-PRONE AREAS COULD BE
VULNERABLE TO FLASH FLOODING.
DUE TO THIS, WPC HAS PLACED OUR ENTIRE AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK
FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE
WESTERN MOUNTAINS ARE IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR TODAY. ANYWHERE
THAT STORMS OCCUR MULTIPLE DAYS IN A ROW WILL BE MOST
SUSCEPTIBLE TO THIS RISK, ALONG WITH ANY TRAINING OF STORMS.
WHILE THE RISK IS LOW, RIVERS ARE BEGINNING TO RISE WITH THE
RECENT RAINFALL.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
MOSTLY LIFR/IFR IS PRESENT THANKS TO A STRONG COLD AIR DAMMING
EVENT KEEPING LOW CLOUDS IN PLACE. FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL BOUNCE
AROUND SOME THROUGH THE NIGHT, BUT REMAIN SUB-VFR THROUGHOUT. A
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS REMAIN ACROSS THE PIEDMONT, MAINLY AFFECTING
LYH. DRIZZLE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING, AND AREAS
OF FOG WILL DEVELOP, LOWERING VSBY AT TIMES, MAINLY BETWEEN
09-13Z. IFR/LIFR CONTINUES THROUGH 15Z, BECOMING IFR INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AS THE
WARM FRONT FINALLY LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA BY MID-AFTERNOON,
WITH MVFR RETURNING TO MOST SITES, ASIDE FROM LYH/ROA. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS MOVE INTO THE AREA AFTER 18Z, INCREASING IN
COVERAGE AFTER 21Z. ANY RAIN WILL BRING QUICK DROPS IN VSBY AND
CIGS. SHOWERS/STORMS CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING AND THROUGH THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD. AFTER 00Z MONDAY, IFR/LIFR FLIGHT
CONDITIONS RETURN AT ALL SITES AS VSBY LOWERS TOMORROW EVENING,
WITH LIKELY PATCHY DENSE FOG SUNDAY NIGHT.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL HAVE LOW VSBY AND CIGS, WITH LIKELY IFR/LIFR
THROUGH THE NIGHT. MONDAY, SHOWERS/STORMS CONTINUE AS THE
WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS STAGNANT FOR THE ENTIRE UPCOMING WEEK
DUE TO A STALLED FRONT THAT LINGERS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC. SHOWERS/STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY, WITH LIKELY SUB-VFR PERSISTING.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JCB
AVIATION...JCB
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