928
FXUS61 KRNK 160014
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
814 PM EDT TUE SEP 15 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO FORECAST. STILL HAVE LINGERING CLOUD
COVER UNDERNEATH SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ALONG SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE
AND NORTHWEST PIEDMONT OF NC.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, THEN EXPECT INCREASE OF SCATTERED
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS/STORMS BEGINNING THURSDAY AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, THEN EXPECT INCREASE OF
SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS/STORMS BEGINNING THURSDAY
AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION TO MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED
BENEATH THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION OVER WESTERN NC, SO HAVE
MAINTAINED SOME LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS THERE, OTHERWISE MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES TO BE FOUND OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. DEWPOINTS IN
THE 50S FEEL NICE, BUT THESE NUMBERS ARE NOT GOING TO PERSIST.
LOOKING AT ONE MORE PLEASANT NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES SLIPPING
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S, THEN TRENDING WARMER AND MORE HUMID FOR
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AS BOTH DEWPOINTS AND TEMPERATURE
INCREASE. TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN FLIRT WITH 90 DEG F FOR
DAYTIME HIGHS...SUMMER REFUSING TO RELEASE ITS GRIP.
THE UPPER RIDGE IS CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE TN VALLEY. THIS
FEATURE IS FORECAST TO RETROGRADE FARTHER WEST AND BECOME
CENTERED OVER THE ARL-LA-TEX BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL
ALLOW A FRONT OVER THE GREAT LAKES TO SAG SOUTH OVER THE MID-
ATLANTIC WITH INCREASING MOISTURE LEADING TO A DAILY CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS BEGINNING THURSDAY AND PERSISTING
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. OVERALL, SEVERE THREAT REMAINS LOW
GIVEN LACK OF SHEAR TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
MVFR CLOUD LAYER PERSISTS ALONG SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE ACROSS
WESTERN NC WHICH EXTENDS NORTHEAST TO NEAR ROA. MODELS SUGGEST
THIS LAYER WILL GEOGRAPHICALLY REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TONIGHT
WITH LITTLE OR NO DIRECT IMPACT TO LOCAL TERMINALS. WILL
MAINTAIN A SCT-BKN LAYER OF LOWER CLOUD VNCTY OF ROA/BCB BUT THE
REMAINING RNK TERMINALS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR.
IN GENERAL EXPECTING VFR FROM BLF-ROA-LYH NORTHWARD THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. EXCEPTION WILL BE SOME LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
RIVER VALLEY FOG ACROSS THE VA/WV HIGHLANDS WITH BRIEF IMPACT TO
LWB FOR A FEW HOURS WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
SHOWER/STORM CHANCES START TO INCREASE THU-SAT ESPECIALLY OVER
THE MOUNTAINS, BUT ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE ORGANIZED AND
MAINLY COINCIDING WITH THE HEATING OF THE DAY.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...PM/SH
AVIATION...PM/SH
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