616
FXUS61 KRNK 260759
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
359 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE AVIATION FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED.
INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN SIGNIFICANT SEVERE POTENTIAL FOR LATE
MONDAY NIGHT, AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) WARMER TODAY AND MONDAY, WITH DISTURBANCES ARRIVING THAT
WILL TRIGGER SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
2) CONFIDENCE INCREASING OF ORGANIZED STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVING LATE MONDAY NIGHT, AND REDEVELOPING
ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...WARMER TODAY AND MONDAY, WITH DISTURBANCES
ARRIVING THAT WILL TRIGGER SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN
SETTLED OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS CONTINUES
TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN. MEANWHILE, A LARGE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION OF THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED
STATES CONTINUES TO BUILD, ALLOWING THE OVERALL WINDFLOW ACROSS
THE LOWER MID-ATLANTIC TO SHIFT FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR INCREASED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DURING THE EARLY HALF
OF THE WEEK AS DISTURBANCES APPROACH OUR AREA FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION.
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT ONE SUCH DISTURBANCE WILL ARRIVE
DURING EARLY THIS EVENING, TRIGGERING THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE NORTH OF ROANOKE, AND PASS AS A
BROKEN LINE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PIEDMONT THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
WITH STRONGER HEATING TODAY AS HIGHS RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO
THE MID 80S, BELIEVE THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT ENERGY IN THE
FORM OF CAPE RANGING FROM 1,000 TO 1,200 J/KG THAT STORMS MAY
OCCASIONALLY INTENSIFY TO SEVERE LEVELS, AND BECOME CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. OUTSIDE OF THAT, OTHER
WEAK DISTURBANCES TODAY THROUGH MONDAY WILL TRIGGER ADDITIONAL
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS, WHICH ARE
FORECASTED TO REMAIN WEAK AND DISORGANIZED.
KEY MESSAGE 2...CONFIDENCE INCREASING OF ORGANIZED STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVING LATE MONDAY NIGHT, WHICH WILL
REDEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY.
THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE LATE
MONDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING NEAR
THE GREAT LAKES TRIGGERS A LINE OF INTENSE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT THIS LINE WILL PUSH
SOUTHWARD ACROSS WEST VIRGINIA LATE MONDAY NIGHT, REACHING THE
INTERSTATE 64 CORRIDOR (WEST OF LEXINGTON) DURING THE 1 AM TO 5
AM TIMEFRAME EARLY TUESDAY. IT'S UNCERTAIN HOW INTENSE THE LINE
OF STORMS WILL BE AS A WHOLE GIVEN ARRIVAL IN THE MIDDLE OF THE
NIGHT, BUT HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT A FEW STORMS WITHIN THE
LINE WILL STILL BE CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. BELIEVE AS
THE STORMS CROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA,
THEY WILL THEN WEAKEN IN DOWNSLOPE WINDFLOW. LATEST DATA
SUGGEST THAT THE LINE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE SOUTH ACROSS OUR
AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT, AND WILL THEN HAVE TO
WATCH FOR THE POTENTIAL OF FLASH FLOODING SHOULD THE LINE STALL,
ALLOWING STORM CELLS TO PASS REPEATEDLY ACROSS THE SAME
LOCATIONS.
ANOTHER STRONG DISTURBANCE WILL ARRIVE ON TUESDAY, AND WILL
SUPPORT THE REDEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WHICH,
AGAIN, WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS. MUCH
ABOUT HOW TUESDAY AFTERNOON'S STORMS EVOLVE MAY DEPEND ON WHERE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER ARE LOCATED LEFTOVER
FROM THE EARLY MORNING ACTIVITY. REGARDLESS, THE STRENGTH OF
THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
APPEARS SUFFICIENT THAT INDIVIDUAL CELLS FORMING DURING EARLY
AFTERNOON MAY SOLIDIFY INTO A BROKEN LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS SOMEWHERE ACROSS OUR AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL END TUESDAY EVENING AS THE
STORMS EXIT SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA, WITH A TRAILING COLD
FRONT THEN MAKING ITS WAY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC ON
TUESDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE AREAS OF LOW MVFR TO IFR STRATUS
THIS MORNING, AS WELL AS POCKETS OF FOG REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO
LESS THAN 1SM, INTERMIXED WITH AREAS WHERE CONDITIONS ARE VFR.
ANY FOG WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY AFTER 13Z AS TEMPERATURES RISE.
IFR AND MVFR CEILINGS WILL SCATTER DURING LATE MORNING, WITH
PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS FORECASTED DURING EARLY AFTERNOON.
WILL BE KEEPING AN EYE ON THE PASSAGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE THIS EVENING THAT MAY TRIGGER A BROKEN LINE OF
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. ACTIVITY IS FORECASTED TO
DEVELOP EAST OF A KHSP TO KROA LINE AROUND 00Z, AND PASS
SOUTHEAST, WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE THAT KLYH WILL BE IMPACTED
DURING THE 01Z TO 03Z TIMEFRAME. LOW CONFIDENCE THAT EITHER KROA
OR KDAN WILL BE IMPACTED, BUT IT REMAINS POSSIBLE. ADDITIONAL
POCKETS OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL REDEVELOP LATE TONIGHT.
WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE LIGHT UNDER 10KTS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
MONDAY ALSO APPEARS MAINLY VFR AFTER SOME EARLY MORNING FOG/LOW
CLOUDS AGAIN TOWARD KLWB/KBCB/KBLF. A LINE OF STRONG STORMS IS
FORECASTED TO ARRIVE LATE MONDAY NIGHT, POTENTIALLY IMPACTING
ALL AIRPORT, BUT MOST LIKELY KLWB AND KHSP. BETTER COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TUESDAY, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
STORMS TO PRODUCE INTENSE WIND GUSTS. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ARE
FORECASTED TO YIELD DRIER WEATHER, WITH VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE
ANY MORNING FOG/STRATUS.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...NF
AVIATION...NF/WP
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