465
FXUS61 KRNK 241315
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
915 AM EDT SAT OCT 24 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
INCREASED CLOUD COVER IN THE MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING PER
SATELLITE TRENDS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DRY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1:DRY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END
OF NEXT WEEK.
MORNING UPDATE: LAYER OF STRATOCU STUCK UNDER SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION HOLDING ON ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. HAVE ADJUSTED SKY
COVER TO INCREASE CLOUDS THROUGH LATE MORNING, BUT SHOULD SEE
THE STRATOCU MIX OUT THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH NEXT WEEK. WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK,
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO MODERATE TO MORE SEASONABLE VALUES IN THE
60S AND 70S FOR HIGHS EACH DAY, AND 30S/40S FOR LOWS AT NIGHT.
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WERE LOWERED SOME AS SURFACE WEDGING
LOOKS TO DEVELOP TONIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL HELP
ADVECT COOLER AIR FROM THE NORTHEAST INTO THE MID- ATLANTIC
STATES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
QUASI-STATIONARY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. FROST DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT LOOKS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES DIPPING INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS THIS REGION.
RH VALUES NEAR 100% COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT LOOK TO
LEAD TO HIGH PROBABILITIES OF WIDESPREAD FROST DEVELOPING.
FUTURE FROST PRODUCTS FOR THE PIEDMONT MAY BE NECESSARY IN THE
COMING DAYS. AS A REMINDER, NO FROST/FREEZE PRODUCTS WILL BE
ISSUED FOR MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS AS THE PROGRAM HAS ENDED FOR THE
YEAR.
AT THIS TIME, NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THE
END OF NEXT WEEK, AND IS NOT LOOKING LIKELY FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE MONTH.
AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD FOR ALL
TERMINALS, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS FOR
KBLF. KROA AND KBCB WILL ALSO SEE LOWER BKN TO OVC SKIES, BUT
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT CEILINGS WILL STAY LOW END VFR FOR THOSE
TWO TERMINALS THROUGH THE MORNING PERIOD. THIS CLOUD COVER WILL
ERODE NOT LONG AFTER 12Z, WITH SKC PREVAILING BY THE AFTERNOON.
THIS CLOUD DECK LOOKS TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
FOR THE SAME TERMINALS; HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH
TO INCLUDE ANY RESTRICTIONS AT THIS TIME FOR ANY MOUNTAIN
TERMINALS.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE NORTHEAST IN THE PIEDMONT AND
SOUTHEAST IN SOUTHEAST WV THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS, BECOMING MORE
EASTERLY BY THE AFTERNOON.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK. COULD SEE SOME MORNING
FOG, BUT LIKELY WILL BE CONFINED TO RIVERS AND LAKES, GIVEN THE DRY
AIRMASS OVERHEAD.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...EB/WP
AVIATION...AS/EB
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