529
FXUS61 KRNK 051723
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
123 PM EDT MON OCT 5 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE ENTIRE FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THIS WEEK.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DRY WEATHER PREVAILS FOR THE REST OF THIS WEEK WITH
MODERATING TEMPERATURES. PATCHY FROST MAY OCCUR IN THE
GREENBRIER RIVER VALLEY AND AT BURKES GARDEN DURING TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...DRY WEATHER PREVAILS FOR THE REST OF THIS WEEK
WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES. PATCHY FROST MAY OCCUR IN THE
GREENBRIER RIVER VALLEY AND AT BURKES GARDEN DURING TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS
LATER THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. CLOUD COVER WILL GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE AS A NORTHWEST BREEZE GUSTING UP TO 20 MPH ADVECTS
DRIER AIR FROM CANADA. WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHTER OVERNIGHT
AMIDST CLEAR SKIES AND FALLING DEWPOINTS, TEMPERATURES MAY FALL
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S TO PROMOTE PATCHY FROST IN THE
GREENBRIER RIVER VALLEY AND AT BURKES GARDEN. ELSEWHERE,
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE 40S. PATCHY RIVER VALLEY FOG COULD
DEVELOP EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE, WHILE A
THIN LAYER OF MOISTURE GETS TRAPPED UNDER THE SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION ALONG AND SOUTH OF ROUTE 460 THAT COULD PRODUCE
SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS.
AFTER A CHILLY TUESDAY MORNING, TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE AS
THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE REACHES THE EAST COAST. THE FLOW
WILL TURN TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST DURING WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY TO
BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S AND 80S. A FRONTAL PASSAGE TO
THE NORTH LATE THURSDAY COULD BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR BY
FRIDAY, BUT ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS
DRY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE LACK OF RAINFALL THIS WEEK WILL ONLY
WORSEN THE ONGOING DROUGHT ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME DUE TO SIGNIFICANT MODEL
SPREAD FOR SUNDAY AND BEYOND, A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IN THE GULF
MIGHT PROVIDE THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A NORTHWEST BREEZE THAT COULD GUST UP TO 20
KNOTS. CIRRUS ACROSS VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA WILL DISSIPATE
BY THIS EVENING. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT,
PATCHY FOG SHOULD DEVELOP AT BLF AND LWB BY EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. FOG MAY BE POSSIBLE AT BCB, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOWER DUE
TO A THIN LAYER OF MOISTURE GETTING TRAPPED UNDER THE
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION THAT COULD PRODUCE SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS.
THESE CLOUDS SEEM MOST PRONOUNCED ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA AND AT
DAN ACCORDING TO MODEL SOUNDINGS. HOWEVER, THEY SHOULD DIMINISH
BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE REST OF
THIS WEEK. THE LONE EXCEPTION WILL BE ANY PATCHY RIVER VALLEY
FOG IN THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. WINDS
SHOULD TURN TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST BY WEDNESDAY AND SWING BACK
AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST LATE THURSDAY DUE TO A FRONTAL PASSAGE
TO THE NORTH. CLOUDS COULD INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH ON SATURDAY,
BUT ANY IMPACTS TO AVIATION MAY NOT TAKE PLACE UNTIL LATER IN
THE WEEKEND.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...PW
AVIATION...PW
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