451
FXUS61 KRNK 021720
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
120 PM EDT TUE JUN 2 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION UPDATE.
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS IN
THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON, WITH COOLER TEMPS TONIGHT,
FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND AND DRY WEATHER FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK. NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL COME LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
KEY MESSAGES
KEY MESSAGE 1: SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE MOUNTAINS
THIS AFTERNOON. DRY WEATHER WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE MOUNTAINS
THIS AFTERNOON. DRY WEATHER WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK.
A DISTURBANCE IS GOING TO SHIFT ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
ALLOWING FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS TO MOVE FROM THE
ALLEGHANYS SOUTH INTO THE MOUNTAINS OF SW VA INTO NW NC. A FEW
STORMS COULD BRING GUSTY WINDS AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST DRY
LAYER IN THE LOW LEVELS/INVERTED V SOUNDING BUT NOT EXPECTING
SEVERE WINDS, MAYBE GUSTS TO 30 TO 40 MPH IN THE STRONGER
STORMS. NOT MUCH RAIN STILL WITH THIS SYSTEM SO THE DROUGHT
PERSISTS. A FEW SPOTS COULD GET A QUARTER INCH+ WHICH MAY GIVE
YOU A DAY BREAK FROM WATERING YOUR PLANTS/GRASS.
A BROAD SURFACE HIGH WILL PUSH SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION, AND HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COOLER SIDE TONIGHT AS
TEMPS FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S.
AS THE HIGH AND DRY AIRMASS BECOMES MORE SETTLED OVERHEAD BY
WEDNESDAY, UPPER RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL US AND MIDWEST WILL
ALSO EXPAND EASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEK. THE RIDGE DOES BEGIN TO
FLATTEN TOWARDS THE WEEKEND, AS A COUPLE SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH
THE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW AND THE TROUGH ONCE OVER THE EASTERN
SEABOARD BEGINS TO MOVE FARTHER OUT TO SEA. TEMPERATURES WILL
START ON A WARMING TREND, AND HIGHS WILL CLIMB BACK INTO THE 80S
AREAWIDE, TO LOW 90S IN THE PIEDMONT AND SOUTHSIDE BY THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO KEEP THE WEATHER DRY
AND QUIET FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK, AND DEWPOINTS REMAIN LOW, SO
THE HEAT LATER IN THE WEEK WILL NOT FEEL TOO OPPRESSIVE. THAT
BEING SAID, THE NWS HEATRISK TOOL DOES HAVE A MODERATE RISK OF
HEAT RELATED IMPACTS FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY OVER THE
PIEDMONT, MEANING THE HEAT MAY AFFECT THOSE SENSITIVE TO HEAT,
ESPECIALLY THOSE WITHOUT COOLING AND/OR HYDRATION.
THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT COULD BRING SOME PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA
DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL AT LEAST SUNDAY, ALTHOUGH MODEL SOLUTIONS
BEGIN TO DIVERGE LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
THE EVOLUTION OF A 500MB TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND A FRONT
DROPPING SOUTH TOWARDS THE AREA. THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS
OFFSHORE AND INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW WILL
ALSO BRING IN ADDITIONAL MOISTURE, WHICH COULD HELP SPARK SOME
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
HOWEVER, THE COVERAGE AND ORGANIZATION OF ANY CONVECTION WILL BE
INFLUENCED THE TROUGH AND SURFACE FRONT, SO FORECAST UNCERTAINTY
DOES INCREASE AFTER SUNDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
HAVE VFR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING MOST SITES. EXCEPTION
APPEARS TO BE LWB WHERE SHOWERS/STORMS MAY BRING LOWER
VSBYS/CIGS THERE BETWEEN 19-20Z.
HAVE VCTS AT BLF/BCB AS WELL THIS AFTERNOON AND AMEND AS
NECESSARY IF STORMS THREATEN THE AIRPORTS.
TONIGHT, ANY SHOWERS FADE AND COULD BE SOME FOG LATE TONIGHT AT
LWB/BCB AND EVEN BLF IF IT RAIN IN/NEAR THE AIRPORTS. LWB COULD
DROP TO LIFR, WITH MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE AT BCB. ANY FOG WILL CLEAR
OUT BY 12-1330Z WED.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BY WEDNESDAY MORNING, KEEPING DRY
AND QUIET CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL TERMINALS FOR SEVERAL DAYS. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY, WITH THE ONLY
POTENTIAL DROP IN FLIGHT CONDITIONS BEING PATCHY NIGHTTIME FOG,
MAINLY FOR THE MOUNTAIN AND RIVER VALLEYS, THOUGH THE DRY
AIRMASS IN PLACE COULD KEEP FOG DEVELOPMENT LIMITED. NEXT SYSTEM
POSSIBLY BRINGS SUB-VFR WITH SHOWERS/STORMS SUNDAY.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AS/WP
AVIATION...EB/WP
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