165
FXUS61 KRNK 181125
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
625 AM EST THU DEC 18 2025
SYNOPSIS
AREAS OF RAIN WILL PASS ACROSS THE LOWER MID-ATLANTIC TODAY AND
TONIGHT AS A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THIS COLD FRONT, STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL DEVELOP
DURING FRIDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS OVERHEAD ON SATURDAY,
WHICH WILL THEN BE FOLLOWED BY THE PASSAGE OF ANOTHER WEAKER
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 145 AM EST THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1. RAIN WILL ARRIVE AS EARLY AS NOON TODAY AND OVERSPREAD THE
AREA BY EARLY EVENING.
2. THE LIKELIHOOD OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS TODAY REMAINS VERY LOW.
LIKEWISE, RAINFALL TOTALS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO CAUSE FLOODING
ISSUES.
3. STRONG WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT PASSING ACROSS THE REGION.
FOR TODAY, WILL BE KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON THE ARRIVAL OF
SHOWERS BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE MID-
ATLANTIC AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. RAIN WILL ENTER
NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA AS EARLY AS NOON, AND QUICKLY SPREAD
NORTH, WITH MOST OF THE SERVICE AREA RECEIVING RAIN BY 5 PM.
WEATHER FORECAST DATA CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT THE PIEDMONT
WILL RECEIVE THE HIGHEST TOTALS, WITH AROUND A 70% CHANCE OF AT
LEAST A HALF INCH OF RAIN, AND MODESTLY HIGHER TOTALS WHERE
BANDS OF HEAVIER RAIN DEVELOP. THE DEEPER MOISTURE DOESN'T
ADVANCE MUCH FURTHER WEST THAN THE BLUE RIDGE HOWEVER, WITH MOST
AREAS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS LIKELY TO RECEIVE TOTALS IN THE
0.25" TO 0.5" RANGE. REGARDLESS, GIVEN THE LOW TOTALS AND THE
VERY DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE DUE TO MONTHS OF BELOW- NORMAL
PRECIPITATION, NO FLOODING ISSUES ARE EXPECTED. LIKEWISE, THE
OCCASIONAL RUMBLE OF THUNDER CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT, BUT
THE CHANCES OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN THE SERVICE AREA TODAY
REMAIN VERY LOW.
THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS RAPIDLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS SHORTLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT, WITH RAINFALL DIMINISHING THROUGH DAWN FRIDAY AS
DRY AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE APPROACH IN ITS WAKE. FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL BRING A WIND SHIFT FROM THE NORTHWEST, AND WIND
SPEEDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. GUSTS
ALONG THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN RIDGES WILL RANGE FROM 35 MPH TO
LOCALLY 50 MPH BY DAWN, WITH SPEEDS STILL INCREASING INTO THE
AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL WARM INTO THE 40S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
BY NOON, AND WILL THEN CHANGE VERY LITTLE THROUGH MOST OF THE
DAY ONCE RAINFALL ENTERS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN
GRADUALLY INCREASE TONIGHT AS SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW STRENGTHENS
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT, WITH THE WARMEST
TEMPERATURES FORECASTED TO OCCUR CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 200 AM EDT THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1. STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN RIDGES ON
FRIDAY MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT'S PASSAGE.
2. A HIGH WIND WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHERN BLUE
RIDGE FROM WATAUGA TO ROANOKE COUNTIES FOR FRIDAY. A WIND
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE BLUE RIDGE FOR
FRIDAY.
2. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS OVERHEAD FOR MOST OF THE
WEEKEND, MAKING FOR ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND TEMPERATURES NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
BY MID-MORNING FRIDAY, THE BRUNT OF AN UPPER LEVEL, NEGATIVELY-
TILTED TROUGH WILL BE PUSHING THROUGH OUR AREA. FOR THE
WEEKEND, WE WILL BE IN MOSTLY WESTERLY FLOW WITH A SLIGHT NW
COMPONENT. AT THE SURFACE, A MOSTLY NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED COLD
FRONT WILL EXIT THE AREA TO THE EAST EARLY FRIDAY AS WELL.
BEHIND IT, WELL MODERATED HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES IN FROM THE GULF
COAST STATES TOWARDS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. WE MAY SEE A FEW
UPSLOPE SHOWERS FOR THE MOUNTAINS, ALONG WITH LINGERING STRATUS
EARLY FRIDAY.
THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE STRONG AND GUSTY WNW WINDS. A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE DEPARTING LOW AND INCOMING HIGH,
ALONG WITH STRONG CAA AND A LLJ AROUND 50 KNOTS IS EXPECTED.
THIS WILL SUPPORT A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE
FROM WATAUGA TO ROANOKE COUNTIES FOR FRIDAY (GUSTS BRIEFLY AS
HIGH AS 58 MPH), AND A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
BLUE RIDGE FOR FRIDAY (GUSTS AS HIGH AS 50 MPH). THE WINDS CALM
DOWN AFTER SUNSET, WITH GUSTS STILL AROUND 15 TO 25 MPH.
SATURDAY LOOKS MUCH LESS WINDY AND SLIGHTLY WARMER, WITH
ANOTHER REINFORCING SURFACE TROUGH BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES
TO THE MOUNTAINS FOR SUNDAY. OTHERWISE, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
JUST TO THE NORTH MAY BRING SOME ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER AND
PERHAPS A SPRINKLE TO THE GREENBRIER VALLEY ON SUNDAY MORNING.
CONFIDENCE IN THE ABOVE WEATHER SCENARIO IS MODERATE.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 200 AM EDT THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1. SCATTERED SHOWERS BEGINNING TUESDAY FOR THE MOUNTAINS.
2. TEMPERATURES TRENDING ABOVE NORMAL.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH CHRISTMAS EVE(WEDNESDAY), WE WILL BE
MAINLY SITUATED IN RIDGING ALOFT, WITH CONTINENTAL CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE PUSHING IN. SOME WEAK PVA IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL
BRING PERIODS OF CLOUDS AND PERHAPS LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
TO THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT, BUT
ACCUMULATIONS LOOK LIGHT.
CONFIDENCE IN THE LONG TERM IS MODERATE.
AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 600 AM EST WEDNESDAY...
CEILINGS, CURRENTLY VFR AT MOST AIRPORTS, WILL GRADUALLY LOWER
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH,
REACHING LOW MVFR/IFR LEVELS AS A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET
BRINGS MOISTURE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WIND SHEAR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET, WITH SPEEDS IN
THE 55KT TO 60KT RANGE WITHIN 2KFT OF THE SURFACE, WHILE SURFACE
WIND GUSTS ARE LIKELY TO HOLD LESS THAN 20KTS.
RAIN WILL ENTER NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA BY AROUND 17Z, AND
OVERSPREAD THE LOWER MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH 22Z. RAINFALL WILL
BECOME INCREASINGLY STEADY AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES AND,
COMBINED WITH LOWERING CEILINGS, WILL RESULT IN REDUCED
VISIBILITIES. LOW MVFR/IFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH AROUND
19/10Z BEFORE WINDS SHIFT FROM THE WEST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT,
AND DOWNSLOPING HELPS THE CLOUD COVER TO BEGIN BREAKING UP. WIND
SPEEDS WILL INCREASE AS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ARRIVES FROM THE
WEST, WITH GUSTS BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD RANGING FROM 25KT
TO LOCALLY 40KTS, AND CONTINUING TO STRENGTHEN.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK
EXPECT GUSTS REACHING 35KTS TO POTENTIALLY AS HIGH AS 50KTS
ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE DURING FRIDAY AFTERNOON. DOWNSLOPE WINDFLOW
WILL ALSO MAKE FOR CLEARING SKIES FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE
AREA, THOUGH SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE MOUNTAINS. HIGH PRESSURE AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR
SATURDAY.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR
VAZ015>017-022.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR VAZ007-009>014-
018>020-023-024.
NC...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR
NCZ001-002-018.
WV...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR WVZ042>044-507-
508.
SYNOPSIS...NF
NEAR TERM...NF
SHORT TERM...SH
LONG TERM...SH
AVIATION...NF
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