519
FXUS61 KRNK 201129
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
729 AM EDT THU AUG 20 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ADJUSTED RAIN CHANCES THIS MORNING FOR SHOWERS APPROACHING FROM
OVER CENTRAL KENTUCKY.
AVIATION FORECAST UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
1) WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECASTED
FOR TODAY, WITH HEAT INDICES REACHING THE UPPER 90S TO THE LOW
100S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.
2) A DISTURBANCE WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND
FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THE PIEDMONT ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
3) AFTER CONTINUED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY, DRIER
WEATHER RETURNS SUNDAY AND CONTINUES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECASTED
FOR TODAY, WITH HEAT INDICES REACHING THE UPPER 90S TO THE LOW
100S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.
KEEPING AN EYE ON A GRADUALLY WEAKENING BAND OF RAIN OVER
WESTERN KENTUCKY THAT IS MAKING STEADY PROGRESS EASTWARD. WHILE
MUCH OF THIS RAIN IS EXPECTED TO FADE AS IT APPROACHES, IT'S
LOOKING INCREASINGLY LIKELY AS LEAST A SMALL AMOUNT WILL SURVIVE
CROSSING THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST WEST
VIRGINIA. HAVE THEREFORE INCREASED RAIN CHANCES FOR THE MID TO
LATE MORNING PERIOD ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FROM THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT AS WAVES OF ENERGY PASSING ACROSS THE LOWER MID-ATLANTIC
RIDE ALONG A COLD FRONT DRIFTING SOUTHWARD FROM THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY, AND BELIEVE STRONG AFTERNOON HEATING WILL ALLOW A FEW
STORMS TO BECOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS THIS EVENING.
IN ADDITION, THOSE SPENDING EXTENDED PERIODS OF TIME OUTDOORS
TODAY, ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE, WILL WANT TO TAKE
PRECAUTIONS AGAINST THE WARMTH. TODAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT WARMING INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S, ALLOWING
HEAT INDICES TO REACH INTO THE UPPER 90S TO THE LOW 100S DURING
THE NOON TO 6 PM TIMEFRAME.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
A DISTURBANCE WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND
FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THE PIEDMONT ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
THE COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE ACROSS CENTRAL VIRGINIA BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. LATEST WEATHER DATA CONTINUES TO INDICATE AN
APPROACHING DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ALONG THE FRONT, TRIGGERING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING IN LATE AFTERNOON,
WITH THE HIGHEST COVERAGE OF STORMS OCCURRING GENERALLY EAST OF
A LINE STRETCHING FROM YADKIN, NC TO THE CITY OF LYNCHBURG.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISING TO 2+ INCHES ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE FRONT WILL EASILY SUPPORT RAINFALL RATES OF AT LEAST 3
INCHES/HOUR IN THE STRONGER STORMS, AND DATA SUGGESTS THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO PASS REPEATEDLY ACROSS THE SAME
LOCATIONS, WHICH COULD CAUSE RAINFALL TOTALS TO INCREASE
QUICKLY. DESPITE DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHSIDE
VIRGINIA INTO NORTH-CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA, FLASH FLOODING WILL
BE POSSIBLE, PRIMARILY DURING THE 6 PM TO MIDNIGHT TIMEFRAME,
THOUGH ITS POSSIBLE THE MOST INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY
RAIN WILL REMAIN OUTSIDE OUR AREA TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
AFTER CONTINUED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY, DRIER
WEATHER RETURNS SUNDAY AND CONTINUES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE
FORECAST ON SATURDAY AS YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES,
THOUGH THE ENERGY NEEDED TO SUPPORT STRONG THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE VERY LIMITED.
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH ACROSS THE LOWER MID-ATLANTIC
ON SUNDAY, ALLOWING DRIER AIR TO ARRIVE FOR THE EARLY HALF OF
NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES OVERHEAD. AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST ON THURSDAY, WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING
TO FINISH OUT THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL FOR THE LAST FULL WEEK OF AUGUST.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
INCREASING CLOUDS HAS HELPED TO ERODE MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG THIS
MORNING, MAKING FOR GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WHICH ARE EXPECTED
TO PERSIST THROUGH AROUND 04Z SATURDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS OCCURRING NEAR THE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME
HEATING, MORE SO EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A COLD FRONT DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS OF
FRIDAY MORNING, CEILINGS WILL TREND TOWARD LOW MVFR TO IFR
BASES, WITH MAINLY IFR CEILINGS BECOMING ESTABLISHED AREAWIDE
BY SUNRISE.
OUTLOOK...
HIGHER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECASTED FOR
FRIDAY, WITH CONTINUED WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY ON SATURDAY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES. IMPROVED
FLYING CONDITIONS WILL RETURN ON SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
DRIER AIR ARRIVES ACROSS THE LOWER MID-ATLANTIC.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...NF
AVIATION...NF
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