894
FXUS61 KRNK 102306
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
706 PM EDT FRI JUL 10 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
EVENING UPDATE: UPDATED POPS BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS. ALSO
LOWER THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA AS AFTERNOON
STORMS
AFTERNOON UPDATE: BEST CHANCE OF RAIN EXPECTED WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A FRONT SUNDAY. MARGINAL THREAT FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL AND ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
KEY MESSAGES
KEY MESSAGE 1: UNSETTLED WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
KEY MESSAGE 2: DRYING TREND EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: UNSETTLED WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
STRONG STORMS WITH ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS/LOCALIZED FLOODING
POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BETTER RAIN COVERAGE
ASSOCIATED WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED SUNDAY.
AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE THIS EVENING,
SHOULD SEE A LULL IN THE ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT WITH FOG AND STRATUS
DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT. A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH FROM THE
GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WILL BE THE NEXT FEATURE TO WATCH
FOR LATER SATURDAY, AND MORE SO INTO SUNDAY AS THIS FEATURE
COMBINES WITH THE PASSAGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SUNDAY. FOR
SATURDAY WE WILL STILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE FRONT, SO THINK
WE HEAT UP AGAIN AND GO THROUGH ANOTHER CYCLE OF SCATTERED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
BY SUNDAY THE FRONT WILL EITHER BE OVERHEAD OR JUST SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL PUT US ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE FRONT
WITH OVER-RUNNING LIFT RESULTING IN AN ABUNDANCE OF CLOUD COVER,
PROLIFIC SHOWERS, AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS.
KEY MESSAGE 2: DRYING TREND EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.
THE FRONT EXITS SOUTH NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
FROM THE NORTH. WE MAY SEE LINGERING CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS
MONDAY, BUT AFTER THAT A 5H HEAT DOME BUILDS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS AND WILL EXTENDING EAST INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY TUESDAY. THE RIDGE SPLITS
OFF OVER US MIDWEEK, THEN A DEEPER TROUGH DIGS INTO NEW ENGLAND
BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS SET-UP WILL PUT US IN MAINLY HOT,
DRY WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW, TEMPERATURES HEATING UP AGAIN FOR
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE MOUNTAINS WILL KEEP
SHOWERS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING. THERE MAY BE SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS OVERNIGHT, BUT NOT INCLUDING WITHIN THE TAFS
ATTM. DO EXPECT AN ABUNDANCE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE, LEADING TO
AREAS OF STATUS, FOG, AND MULTILAYER CLOUDS ABOVE THAT.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER FOR SUB-VFR AT LWB/BCB WITH PERIOD OF DENSE
FOG OR LOW STRATUS DECK LIKELY FOR BOTH TERMINALS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
SCATTERED, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE
SUNDAY WITH GREATEST COVERAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HEAVY DOWNPOURS, GUSTY WINDS, AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE ALL
POSSIBLE IN ANY OF THE STRONGER STORMS. PATCHY FOG IS ALSO
LIKELY DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS, ESPECIALLY WHERE
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OCCURRED DURING THE EVENING BEFORE. ANY FOG
WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY AFTER 13Z DAILY.
DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT
WEEK.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...PM/RCS
AVIATION...PM/RCS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page