918
FXUS61 KRNK 121843
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
243 PM EDT SAT SEP 12 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED FORECAST BASED ON RECENT GUIDANCE.
18Z AVIATION UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP TODAY, WITH DRYING CONDITIONS RETURNING FOR THE EARLY
HALF OF THE COMING WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP TODAY, WITH DRYING CONDITIONS
RETURNING FOR THE EARLY HALF OF THE COMING WEEK.
APPROACHING UPPER SHORTWAVE ENERGY SHOULD ALLOW THE BOUNDARY
THAT WAS NEAR THE VA/NC BORDER THIS MORNING TO LIFT NORTHWARD AS
A WARM FRONT ALONG WITH INCREASED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. SOME
CONVECTIVE INITIATION HAS ALREADY OCCURRED WITH SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS PUSHING NORTHWARD IN THE CWA. COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE UPPER FORCING KICKS IN
MORE. MORNING STRATUS LINGERED ON FOR A WHILE SO DESTABILIZATION
COULD BE LIMITED - PROGGED MLCAPE IS AROUND 1000 J/KG AND THE
MORNING SOUNDING INDICATED SOME TALL SKINNY CAPE PROFILE. SHEAR
PARAMETERS ARE WEAK SO ALL IN ALL ANY THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE
YOUR GENERIC GARDEN VARIETY BUT POSSIBLE TRAINING COULD LEAD TO
SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING. A FEW STRONG STORMS COULD BE POSSIBLE
FROM DOWNBURST WINDS. DECENT COVERAGE COULD LAST THROUGH THE
EVENING AND THERE IS SOME CAM CONSENSUS ON THIS. TROUGH AXIS
SHOULD MAKE IT'S WAY INTO THE AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING AND ALLOW
FOR A MOSTLY DRY SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
A WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA FOR
MONDAY THOUGH THIS SHOULD BE MAINLY A DRY PASSAGE AND WITH A
RIDGE BUILDING IN BEHIND THIS FEATURE AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF
OF THE WORK WEEK LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY AS WELL.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
CIGS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO LIFT SO FAR TODAY WITH SOME SITES STILL
IN THE IFR/MVFR RANGE. THINKING THEY WILL BE IN THE MVFR TO LOW
END VFR RANGE INTO THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING THEN LOWER BACK
DOWN TO MAINLY IFR AND LOWER INTO TONIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WHICH COULD REDUCE VSBYS OR HAVE VRB
GUSTS AT TIMES. MAIN WINDS LOOK TO BE UNDER 7 KTS OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON, BECOMING CALM OVERNIGHT, THEN OUT OF
THE WEST TO NW UNDER 7 KTS FOR SUNDAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
A FEW SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. BEHIND THIS FRONT, EXPECT A
FEW DAYS OF DRIER CONDITIONS AND WIDESPREAD VFR WEATHER.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AB
AVIATION...AB/NF
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