641
FXUS61 KRNK 032312
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
712 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
00 UTC TAFS HAVE BEEN UPDATED.
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH OVER PATRICK COUNTY HAS BEEN CANCELLED.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A MARGINAL RISK OF FLASH FLOODING REMAINS ACROSS NORTH
CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA FOR THIS EVENING.
2) UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THIS WEEK
WITH DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...A MARGINAL RISK OF FLASH FLOODING REMAINS ACROSS
NORTH CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA FOR THIS EVENING.
WHILE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY MOVES EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
THIS AFTERNOON, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVERHEAD WILL ENSURE MORE
LIFT AND INSTABILITY AVAILABLE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP. THE OVERALL FLASH FLOOD RISK HAS DECREASED COMPARED TO
PREVIOUS DAYS, BUT THERE STILL REMAINS A MARGINAL RISK ACROSS
NORTH CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA THIS EVENING. THE 12Z RNK SOUNDING
THIS MORNING REVEALED A PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF 1.36 INCHES,
WHICH IS NOTABLY LOWER COMPARED TO THE JUICY 1.95 INCHES FROM
24 HOURS AGO BUT STILL ELEVATED FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. BECAUSE
OF THIS REDUCTION IN MOISTURE AND AFTER COORDINATION WITH
NEIGHBORING OFFICES, NO AREAL FLOOD WATCH WILL BE HOISTED FOR
THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT
THROUGH THIS EVENING IN COORDINATION WITH PUBLIC OFFICIALS FOR
SOME OF THE DAMS WITHIN THE HEADWATERS OF THE ARARAT RIVER GIVEN
THE HEAVY RAINFALL THAT TOOK PLACE THERE OVER THE PAST WEEKEND.
KEY MESSAGE 2...UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REST
OF THIS WEEK WITH DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CLOSE OFF FROM THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS BY TUESDAY
MORNING. THIS LOW SHOULD EVENTUALLY WEAKEN TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF
THIS WEEK AS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER BERMUDA AND
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE GREAT LAKES. WHILE
TUESDAY APPEARS TO BE A LULL IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY, MOISTURE
WILL CONVERGE AGAIN ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE TO BRING A DAILY THREAT
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. THE
AIR MASS STILL REMAINS MOIST WITH DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM THE
MID 60S TO THE LOWER 70S, SO RAINFALL EFFICIENCY WILL CONTINUE
TO REMAIN RATHER HIGH. HEAVY DOWNPOURS FROM STRONGER STORMS
REPEATEDLY TRACKING OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS COULD TRIGGER MORE
HYDROLOGICAL ISSUES TOWARDS THE LATTER HALF OF THIS WEEK AS A
COLD FRONT ARRIVES FROM THE WEST.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE EVENING AT ALL TERMINALS; HOWEVER, BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
TO IFR RESTRICTIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE AT LYH, ROA, AND BLF AS
SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED NEAR THESE TERMINALS. DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS, PATCHY FOG AND A BROKEN/OVERCAST CLOUD DECK
LOOK TO DEVELOP AND LEAD TO MVFR TO IFR RESTRICTIONS DURING THE
LATE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.
WINDS OVERNIGHT LOOK TO INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST/EAST AT
ALL TERMINALS AS WEDGING BECOMES MORE ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE
REGION. THESE WINDS LOOK TO INCREASE TO AROUND 5-10 KNOTS BY 12
UTC, AND CONTINUE TO REMAIN AT THESE LEVELS THROUGH THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD. GUSTS LOOK TO REMAIN AT AROUND 10-15 KNOTS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
ALL CEILINGS MAY SLOWLY IMPROVE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AGAIN, BUT THE ODDS OF THUNDER LOOK TO
BE LOWER OVERALL COMPARED TO TODAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE
PREVALENT BY WEDNESDAY A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
THE HIGHEST THREAT FOR THUNDER SEEMS TO OCCUR DURING THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY, BUT DAILY CHANCES SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY.
ABUNDANT MOISTURE SHOULD HELP TO FAVOR MVFR CEILINGS AT TIMES
ALONG WITH PATCHY OVERNIGHT FOG.
HYDROLOGY
REPEATED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AMIDST A MOIST
AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THIS WEEK AS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. HEAVY DOWNPOURS
FROM STRONGER STORMS REPEATEDLY TRACKING OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS
COULD TRIGGER A RISK OF FLOODING. ANTECEDENT SOIL CONDITIONS
ARE GRADUALLY TURNING WETTER ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS DUE TO THE
PREVIOUS MONTH, BUT CONSIDERABLE RAINFALL DEFICITS STILL EXIST
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...PW
AVIATION...EB/PW
HYDROLOGY...PW
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