127
FXUS61 KRNK 010700
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
300 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
FORECAST DISCUSSION UPDATED.
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
1) HOT CONDITIONS THIS WEEK.
2) RETURN OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: HOT CONDITIONS THIS WEEK.
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR A PARTICULARLY WARM WEEK AHEAD OF US,
ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE
WEST WILL STEADILY MAKE ITS WAY OVER TO THE MID-ALTANTIC BY
THURSDAY. THIS HIGHER PRESSURE WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES DOWN
BUT TEMPERATURES UNSEASONABLY HIGH. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE EACH DAY AND REACH THEIR PEAK BY THURSDAY WHEN THE
TEMPERATURES MAY GET TO THE LOWER 100S. WITH DEW POINTS
PERSISTING FROM THE MID-60S TO LOWER 70S ALL WEEK, THE HEAT
INDEX VALUES FOR THE VA AND NC PIEDMONT MAY APPROACH 105-108
DEGREES. THE RISK OF 105 HEAT INDEX VALUES FOR WEDNESDAY EXISTS
AS WELL AND HEAT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED AS A RESULT FOR THIS
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. FOR EVERYONE ELSE, ASIDE FROM THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS, HEAT INDEX VALUES BETWEEN 90-100F ARE
POSSIBLE. FOR SAFETY REASONS, THE PUBLIC IS ENCOURAGED TO STAY
HYDRATED AND COOL THIS WEEK REGARDLESS OF WHERE YOU ARE AT TO
AVOID HEAT RELATED ILLNESSES. IT MAY BE SEPTEMBER, BUT IT
CERTAINLY WILL NOT FEEL LIKE IT. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MAY
MOVE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AND BRING US BACK DOWN TO HIGHS IN THE
MID-70S TO MID-80S BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 2: RETURN OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS
WEEKEND.
THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL LOSE SOME MOMENTUM
AND STOP MOVING EASTWARD BY THURSDAY. THERE LOOKS TO BE ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR AREAWIDE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND BUT
NARROWING DOWN THE TIMING AND SEVERITY IS A BIT OF A CHALLENGE
THIS FAR OUT. ON FRIDAY, A COLD FRONT IS SET TO MOVE SOUTHWEST
AND MAY PASS THROUGH BETWEEN 12Z FRIDAY AND 12Z SATURDAY. THE
TIMING OF THE FRONT IS CRITICAL AS MORE NORTHWESTERLY MEAN FLOW
WOULD FOLLOW IT AND MOVE FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC,
PUSHING THE RIDGE AWAY. SEVERE WEATHER COULD DEVELOP IF THE
TIMING OF THE FRONT INTERSECTS THE WARMEST AND MOST UNSTABLE
PART OF THE DAY ON FRIDAY. WARM AND MOIST SURFACE CONDITIONS
WILL LEAD TO SURFACE LEVEL CAPE VALUES OF AT LEAST 1000-2000
J/KG. THE STRONGER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL LEAD TO BETTER LAPSE
RATES (UP TO 6.5 C/KM) AND THE DELIVERY OF BETTER WIND SHEAR
(25-35 KNOTS) AND MID-LEVEL VORTICITY. WHILE THE BETTER DYNAMICS
FOR SEVERE WEATHER ARE PROJECTED TO BE TO OUR NORTHEAST, THE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER DOES HAVE PARTS OF THE VIRGINIA PIEDMONT
TO THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS HIGHLIGHTED TO REFLECT THE SEVERE
RISK. TO REITERATE, MUCH OF THIS RELIES ON A LOT OF ATMOSPHERIC
CONDITIONS COMING TOGETHER AT THE RIGHT TIME.
EVEN IF FRIDAY'S STORM SET UP DOES NOT MATERIALIZE, THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WOULD STILL SEND PERTURBATIONS INTO THE WEEKEND
AND PROVIDE RAINFALL CHANCES FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK, A HIGH SURFACE PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO WEDGE ITSELF INTO OUR
MOUNTAINS AND OFFER A BREAK IN PRECIPITATION.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
IT WILL BE QUIET FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT WITH VFR SKIES
EXCEPT FOR FOG AT KLWB, KBLF, AND KBCB A FEW HOURS BEFORE
SUNRISE. THE WEATHER FOR TODAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH
CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT AND NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 5-10 KNOTS
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE ONLY MAIN DIFFERENCES ARE
CALM WINDS MAY RETURN EARLIER TONIGHT AT AROUND 00Z AND THERE IS
AN EVEN LESS CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THAN YESTERDAY. OTHERWISE,
SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE PARTLY CLOUDY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR
SO.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
ANOTHER ROUND OF EARLY MORNING FOG IS LIKELY FOR KBCB, KLWB, AND
POSSIBLY KBLF WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS SET TO MOVE CLOSER
TO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES DOWN, SO VFR
SKIES CAN BE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE WORK WEEK OUTSIDE OF FOG.
BY FRIDAY, HOWEVER, THE RIDGE STARTS TO MOVE AWAY DUE A COLD
FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL GIVE OUR REGION A
GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS
FOR ALL TERMINALS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THERE IS STILL A BIT
OF UNCERTAINTY ON THE EVOLUTION OF THESE STORMS AS WELL AS THEIR
TIMING SO THIS WILL BE MONITORED IN FUTURE FORECASTS. VFR
CONDITIONS MAY RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK ONCE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES IN FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CG
AVIATION...CG
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