806
FXUS61 KRNK 010651
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
251 AM EDT MON JUN 1 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED THE AVIATION FORECAST.
TODAY SHOULD BE DRY, BUT TUESDAY STILL APPEARS TO HAVE WIDELY
SCATTERED MOUNTAIN SHOWERS/STORMS.
KEY MESSAGES
KEY MESSAGE 1: A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA TODAY. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASS ACROSS
THE LOWER MID-ATLANTIC.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA TODAY. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASS ACROSS
THE LOWER MID-ATLANTIC.
TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN US THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH
JUST A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE ALONG THE NC/VA
BORDER, WITH A STALLED FRONT REMAINING WELL SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA.
ON TUESDAY, STORMS WILL LIKELY PROVE MORE WIDESPREAD THAN THE
ISOLATED ACTIVITY TRIGGERED TODAY. HOWEVER, SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AND POOLS OF DRY AIR WILL WORK TO INHIBIT DEEP STORM
DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN THE LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE RETURNING TO THE
AREA, ANY RAINFALL IS FORECASTED TO REMAIN BRIEF AND NON-SEVERE.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES, KEEPING THE REGION PLEASANT BEFORE THE NEXT WEATHER
SYSTEM THREATENS TO BRING MORE RAIN BY SUNDAY.
MOUNTAIN COMMUNITIES WILL ENJOY HIGHS IN THE 70S THROUGH
TODAY, FOLLOWED BY A COOLER DIP INTO THE 60S TO MID 70S ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, BEFORE REBOUNDING BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S
TO MID 80S LATE IN THE WEEK. MEANWHILE, THE FOOTHILLS AND
PIEDMONT WILL EXPERIENCE HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 80S TODAY, WITH
COOLER TEMPERATURES TUESDAY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. WEDNESDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY, EXPECT WARMER TEMPERATURES, REACHING THE 90S
BY FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
TODAY WILL BE ANOTHER QUIET DAY WITH VFR AT ALL TERMINALS
THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
PUSH INTO THE AREA. A FEW STRAY AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS MAY
OCCUR ALONG THE NC/VA LINE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT WILL
BE UNLIKELY TO DIRECTLY AFFECT ANY TERMINALS. DAN SHOULD BE JUST
FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO AVOID ANY RAIN. OTHERWISE VFR CLOUDS IN THE
AREA. THE BIGGEST CHANGE TODAY WILL BE WIND DIRECTION, AS
SOUTHERLY WIND SHIFTS TO THE NORTH/NORTHWEST BEHIND A WEAK
FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND THEN BECOME NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON.
CONFIDENCE IN THE ABOVE FORECAST IS MODERATE TO HIGH.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
VFR WILL CONTINUE AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH NIGHT. A BETTER
CHANCE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS RETURNS ON TUESDAY, FOR ALL
TERMINALS EXCEPT DAN/LYH. ANY RAIN WOULD BRING BRIEF SUB-VFR.
BEGINNING TUESDAY NIGHT, HIGH PRESSURE/VFR CONDITIONS FULLY
ENGULFS THE AREA, KEEPING QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SH
AVIATION...SH
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