903
FXUS61 KRNK 221021
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
621 AM EDT THU OCT 22 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NOTHING. SIMPLE MESSAGE. SIMPLE FORECAST.
MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE PROBLEMS WITH FORECASTING DEWPOINTS,
ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON, WHICH IMPACTS THE RH FORECAST.
EVERY CYCLE WE HAVE TO ARTIFICIALLY LOWER THEM FROM THE NBM.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DRY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1:DRY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WITH
HIGH PRESSURE AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
NEXT WEEK, TEMPERATURES LOOK TO MODERATE TO MORE SEASONABLE
VALUES IN THE 60S AND 70S FOR HIGHS EACH DAY, AND 30S/40S FOR
LOWS AT NIGHT.
AT THIS TIME, NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, AND IS NOT LOOKING LIKELY FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE MONTH.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THERE WILL
BE SOME FOG CONFINED MAINLY TO THE RIVERS BETWEEN THE 12-13Z
TIMEFRAME, BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO ADD TO ANY OF THE TERMINAL
FORECASTS DUE TO THE VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION.
WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN NORTHERLY/NORTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD AT AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 15 KNOTS AT
TIMES ACROSS MOUNTAIN TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. THESE GUSTS
SHOULD DIMINISH NEAR 00Z.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...
VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANY FOG
SHOULD BE LIMITED TO OVER BODIES OF WATER, AND NOT FORESEEING
ANY ISSUES AT THE TAF SITES.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...EB
AVIATION...EB
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