008
FXUS61 KRNK 230114
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
914 PM EDT MON JUN 22 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
EXTENDED FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11AM TUESDAY.
SEVERE STORMS FROM THIS AFTERNOON HAVE EXITED THE CWA.
ADDITIONAL RAIN IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING,
ASSOCIATED WITH VORTICITY CENTER AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
INBOUND FROM CENTRAL TN.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WITH RESPECT TO DAMAGING
WIND POTENTIAL IS WANING. STILL EXPECT LINGERING SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
2) DRY WEATHER RETURNS MIDWEEK FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER OPPORTUNITY
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WITH RESPECT TO DAMAGING
WIND POTENTIAL IS WANING. STILL EXPECT LINGERING SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY IS TRENDING DOWN, WORKED OVER BY THE
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS, BUT DO NEED TO MONITOR FOR ADDITIONAL
HEAVY RAINFALL SINCE WE ARE STILL IN A PRE-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT
WITH PWATS ABOVE 1.60.
MAIN FOCUS FOR THE OVERNIGHT WILL BE THE COLD FRONT WHICH IS
STILL INBOUND FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. IN ADDITION, A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE AND MID LEVEL MESOSCALE VORTICITY CENTER (MVC) OVER
CENTRAL TN IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE CWA LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY
TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS, SOME OF WHICH COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. AS SUCH, THE FLOOD WATCH FOR OUR SOUTHEAST WV
COUNTIES AND INTO TAZEWELL VA HAS BEEN EXTENDED IN TIME (UNTIL
11AM TUESDAY), AND MAY NEED TO EXTEND THE WATCH FARTHER EAST IF
RADAR TRENDS SUPPORT THE NEED. LOOKING AT REGIONAL RADARS, THE
INBOUND ACTIVITY FROM TN IS MOVING RELATIVELY QUICKLY, BUT THERE
IS THE CHANCE THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE VORT CENTER MAY
YIELD A WEST-EAST BAND OF HEAVY RAIN WHICH WOULD INTERSECT OUR
NORTHWESTERN CWA OVERNIGHT. THE SAME VORTICITY CENTER MAY ALSO
CAPITALIZE ON ANY LINGERING INSTABILITY OVER THE NC PIEDMONT
FOR AN EARLY MORNING CLUSTER OF SHOWERS/STORMS THAT MAY RUN THE
VA/NC BORDER COUNTIES TUESDAY MORNING.
BASICALLY, WHEREVER THERE IS REPEAT ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN,
EXPECT LOCALIZED POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING. RAIN RATES OF 2 TO 4
INCHES AN HOUR WERE COMMON MONDAY AFTERNOON, AND WITH PWATS
NUDGING 2" OVERNIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY WOULD EXPECT SIMILAR
CONDITIONS UNTIL WE HAVE AN AIRMASS CHANGE.
KEY MESSAGE 2: DRY WEATHER RETURNS MIDWEEK FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER
OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FOR MID-WEEK FOLLOWED
BY THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST BY THE
WEEKEND. BASICALLY LOOKING AT A FEW DAYS OF DRYING, WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY, BEFORE MOISTURE RETURNS FRIDAY.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
UNSETTLED WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH NOON TUESDAY WITH VARIABLE
CIGS/VSBYS PROMOTING AREAS OF SUB-VFR ASSOCIATED WITH SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT
MID-DAY TUESDAY WILL BRING A WIND SHIFT FROM THE NORTHWEST
FOLLOWED BY CLEARING SKIES FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
EXPECTING MAINLY VFR FOR MIDWEEK WITH RETURN OF UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS BY THE WEEKEND.
BEGINNING THURSDAY, AND MORE-SO FOR FRIDAY, SCATTERED DIURNAL
STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP DURING THE HEAT OF THE AFTERNOON,
POTENTIALLY IMPACTING SCHEDULED AFTERNOON AND EVENING FLIGHTS
WITH TURBULENT CONDITIONS AND BRIEF DELAYS. OUTSIDE OF THE
STORMY WEATHER, THE ONLY OTHER MAJOR THREAT TO FLIGHT CATEGORIES
WILL COME FROM EARLY-MORNING MOUNTAIN VALLEY AND RIVER FOG
BRINGING ADDITIONAL WINDOWS OF RESTRICTED VISIBILITY.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR VAZ007.
NC...NONE.
WV...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR WVZ042>044-507-508.
DISCUSSION...PM
AVIATION...PM
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