461
FXUS61 KRNK 250820
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
420 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FOR TODAY, WITH FOCUS
ON TODAY'S WEATHER AS A WARM FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE LOWER MID-
ATLANTIC, SUPPORTING MORE SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS.
THE AVIATION FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
KEY MESSAGE 1: WARM & HUMID CONDITIONS KEEP RAIN IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY, WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING
POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: WARM & HUMID CONDITIONS KEEP RAIN IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY, WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING
POSSIBLE.
KEEPING AN EYE ON A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD LOWER MID-
ATLANTIC THIS MORNING, SUPPORTED ALOFT BY WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
WHICH ARE TRIGGERING WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS. OVERALL, RAINFALL IS LIGHT, WITH RATES OF 0.1" TO
0.2" PER HOUR, BUT WILL BE WATCHING FOR BANDS OF HEAVIER RAIN
ADVANCING NORTHWARD FROM THE DEEPER MOISTURE ACROSS NORTH
CAROLINA WHICH WILL BE CAPABLE OF RAINFALL RATES OF 3" PER HOUR.
THESE BANDS APPEAR TO BE PROGRESSIVE, NOT LINGERING OVER ANY
SINGLE PLACE FOR EXTENDED PERIODS OF TIME, SO FEEL THE FLOODING
THREAT REMAINS LIMITED. BUT THESE WILL STILL BE CAPABLE OF
HEAVY DOWNPOURS THAT MAY CAUSE BRIEF ISSUES ACROSS URBAN AND
POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
AS THE WARM FRONT EXITS TO THE NORTHEAST THIS MORNING, WINDS
WILL SHIFT MORE FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST, ALLOWING DEEPER
MOISTURE TO POOL AHEAD OF A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT CURRENTLY
SITUATED ACROSS KENTUCKY AND WEST VIRGINIA. AS SUCH, SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF TODAY,
WITH RAIN FALLING MORE WIDESPREAD DURING THE MORNING, BECOMING
SCATTERED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SKIES WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY CLOUDY, BUT SHOULD EXPERIENCE A FEW BREAKS OF SUNSHINE
THAT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO SPIKE INTO THE 70S FOR MOST THIS
AFTERNOON, POSSIBLY BREAKING 80 ACROSS THE PIEDMONT OF NORTH
CAROLINA INTO SOUTHSIDE VIRGINIA. THE WARMTH WILL SUPPORT AN
MODEST INCREASE OF THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE THROUGH EARLY EVENING,
BEFORE ACTIVITY DECREASES TOWARD SUNSET. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS LOW, THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT ONE OR TWO
STORMS PULSING TO SEVERE LEVELS, WITH DAMAGING WINDS AS THE
PRIMARY THREAT.
THE COLD FRONT WILL DRIFT SLOWLY TOWARDS US AND SETTLE IN WEST
TO EAST FASHION ACROSS THE LOWER MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY, BEFORE A SURGE IN DRIER CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES
THE FRONT SOUTHWARD ON THURSDAY. UNTIL THAT HAPPENS, ROUNDS OF
SHOWER AND OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO
PASS ACROSS THE REGION. MOST WILL RECEIVE AN ADDITIONAL 0.5" TO
1.5" OF RAINFALL THROUGH THAT TIME, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
OCCURRING IN STRONGER THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY, WHICH COULD LEAD
TO LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.
DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HIGH RAIN RATES WITH SOME OF
THE STRONGER STORMS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THIS WEEK, IT IS
POSSIBLE FOR ISOLATED INSTANCES OF 3" TO 4" OF RAIN TO FALL
OVER A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME, RESULTING LOCALIZED FLOODING EVEN
DESPITE RECENT SEVERE DRYNESS. AS SUCH, THE WEATHER PREDICTION
CENTER CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT THE LOWER MID-ATLANTIC IN A
MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, THE MOST VULNERABLE BEING URBAN, LOW-
LYING AND FLOOD PRONE AREAS. TO A LESSER CONCERN ARE THE RIVERS,
BUT MULTIPLE DAYS OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CAN LEAD TO RISES ON
THE LARGER STREAMS TOO. EVEN IF THEY DO NOT FLOOD, THOSE NEAR
RIVERS AND STREAMS NEED TO BE ALERT FOR SUDDEN RISES.
AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
IFR AND LOW MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO THE
AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED RAIN WITH A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS PASS ACROSS THE LOWER MID-ATLANTIC. CEILINGS WILL
REMAIN AT 1KFT OR LESS INTO EARLY AFTERNOON, BEFORE A WEST-
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND SHIFT TAKES PLACE, ALLOWING CEILINGS TO
GRADUALLY LIFT, WITH BREAKS TO VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING INTERMIXED WITH MVFR CEILINGS. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP WITH AFTERNOON HEATING, WITH GREATEST COVERAGE
OCCURRING BETWEEN 20Z AND 00Z. THAT STATED, BELIEVE COVERAGE
WILL REMAIN WIDELY SCATTERED AT BEST, AND CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW
AS TO WHERE ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP. WITH VERY MOIST
CONDITIONS LINGERING ACROSS THE REGION, REDEVELOPMENT OF IFR
CEILINGS WITH AREAS OF FOG ARE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER THROUGH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS A FRONT BECOMES SITUATED WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
LOWER MID-ATLANTIC. AS SUCH, MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST, ESPECIALLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
WHEN FOG WILL REDEVELOP. BY THURSDAY, THE FRONT WILL BE PUSHED
SOUTHWARD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE NORTH. CONDITIONS MAY
IMPROVE TO VFR BY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS DRIER AIR
ARRIVES.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...NF/SH
AVIATION...NF/PW
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