219
FXUS61 KRNK 110802
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
302 AM EST WED FEB 11 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MOUNTAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD, BUT
STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT ACROSS TO THE BLUE RIDGE. TEMPERATURES LOOK
TO DROP BACK BELOW FREEZING WEDNESDAY NIGHT, AS SEASONAL HIGHS
AND LOWS BECOME THE NORM INTO THE WEEKEND. WEEKEND SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO TREND TOWARDS A MAJORITY RAIN EVENT, THOUGH SOME
SNOW COULD MIX IN FOR HIGH ELEVATION AREAS IN SOUTHEAST WV
SUNDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1. LIGHT RAIN OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND ABOVE FREEZING
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO PREVAIL THIS MORNING. MODEST POST-
FRONTAL WIND GUSTS WILL MAKE FOR A BREEZY WEDNESDAY. SUB-
FREEZING TEMPS RETURN TONIGHT.
2. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO OUR AREA THIS WEEKEND.
HOWEVER, WITH TEMPERATURES MOSTLY ABOVE FREEZING, PRECIPITATION
IS LIKELY TO MAINLY BE RAIN, THOUGH THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS MAY
HAVE A RAIN/SNOW MIX, WITH AN INITIAL BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING
RAIN IN THE MOUNTAINS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: LIGHT RAIN OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND ABOVE FREEZING
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO PREVAIL THIS MORNING. MODEST POST-
FRONTAL WIND GUSTS WILL MAKE FOR A BREEZY WEDNESDAY. SUB-
FREEZING TEMPS RETURN TONIGHT.
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A SMATTERING OF RAIN SHOWERS
OVER THE MOUNTAINS TO THE WEST. RAIN IS UNLIKELY TO MAKE IT INTO
THE BLUE RIDGE OR PAST IT, THOUGH THE PIEDMONT HAS A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF BRIEF SHOWERS JUST BEFORE SUNRISE THIS MORNING. TOTAL
RAIN AMOUNTS ARE LIGHT AND WILL BE INCONSEQUENTIAL. ONLY A
COUPLE TENTHS OF AN INCH AT MOST IN THE FURTHEST WESTERN SLOPES
OF OUR WV ZONES. THIS IS FORTUNATE AS ABNORMALLY WARM
TEMPERATURES YESTERDAY JUMP STARTED SNOW AND ICE MELT ACROSS THE
REGION, SO A SIMULTANEOUS HEAVY RAIN COULD HAVE MADE FOR A
TROUBLESOME HYDROLOGIC SITUATION.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH THE DAY TODAY,
AND RAIN WILL COME TO AN END BY MID-MORNING. THIS WILL CONTINUE
A STEADY SNOW MELT ATTEMPTING TO RID US OF SEVERAL INCHES OF
SNOWPACK THAT HAVE BEEN ON THE GROUND FOR WEEKS. BEHIND THIS
MORNING'S FRONT, WIND GUSTS WILL PICK UP WITH AN INCREASED
PRESSURE GRADIENT. GUSTS OF 20-30 MPH WILL BE COMMON FOR THE
ENTIRE CWA, WITH 30-40 MPH GUSTS POSSIBLE ALONG RIDGETOPS NEAR
THE ALLEGHANIES AND NC HIGH COUNTRY.
TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW FREEZING AGAIN TONIGHT, BUT IT WON'T BE
THE BITTER COLD OF LAST WEEK. MOST SITES JUST INTO THE 20S.
KEY MESSAGE 2: ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO OUR AREA THIS
WEEKEND. HOWEVER, WITH TEMPERATURES MOSTLY ABOVE FREEZING,
PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY TO MAINLY BE RAIN, THOUGH THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS MAY HAVE A RAIN/SNOW MIX, WITH AN INITIAL BRIEF PERIOD OF
FREEZING RAIN IN THE MOUNTAINS.
MOSTLY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE END OF THE WEEK UNTIL A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS IN THE GREAT PLAINS AND MOVES EAST INTO THE
SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC. UNLIKE PREVIOUS STORM SYSTEMS, WARMER AIR
WILL BE PRESENT, DUE TO A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND A WEAK SURFACE WEDGE.
THIS WILL KEEP MOST AREAS NEAR TO ABOVE FREEZING, WITH MOST
PRECIPITATION BEING IN THE FORM OF RAIN, EXCEPT FOR THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS, WHICH COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN
SATURDAY NIGHT TRANSITIONING TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT.
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE NORTHEAST US WILL WEDGE DOWN EAST OF
THE APPALACHIANS, THOUGH IT WILL BE WEAK. MODELS HAVE TRENDED THIS
WEDGE TO BE WEAKER. BASED ON THESE TRENDS, IT IS MORE LIKELY THAT
THIS COULD TURN INTO AN ALL RAIN EVENT COMPARED TO ANY SIGNIFICANT
WINTER WEATHER. HOWEVER, SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
JUST COLD ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SOME LIGHT ICING IN THE MOUNTAINS
CHANGING TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX AS THE SYSTEM PASSES BY TO OUR SOUTH.
ANY ACCUMULATIONS OF ICE/SNOW WOULD BE MINIMAL, WITH ONLY A GLAZE OF
ICE POSSIBLE AND ANY SNOW LIKELY NOT STICKING, DUE TO BEING MIXED
WITH RAIN. THIS EVENT WILL HAVE LITTLE TO NO IMPACTS, ASIDE FROM
HELPING THE SNOW/ICE ON THE GROUND TO CONTINUE MELTING, AND CAUSING
SOGGY GROUND CONDITIONS DUE TO THE RAINFALL. THERE IS A GREATER THAN
50% CHANCE THAT MOST OF THE AREA WILL SEE AT LEAST A HALF INCH OF
RAINFALL FROM THIS SYSTEM. THE SYSTEM CLEARS OUT BY MIDDAY MONDAY,
WITH QUIET WEATHER FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY VFR OR LOW END MVFR, WITH CLOUD DECKS
OUT EAST SITTING HIGHER THAN WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. A COLD
FRONT IS RUNNING FLIGHT CONDITIONS DOWN IN THE MOUNTAINS,
LOWERING CIGS UNDER 1 KFT AT MULTIPLE SITES NEAR BLF/LWB AND
INTO THE GRAYSON HIGHLANDS. PATCHY SHALLOW FOG IS POSSIBLE AT
TIMES AS NEAR SURFACE AIR WILL BE MOIST FROM RAIN AND/OR RECENT
SNOWMELT, BUT ALSO COLDER THAN ABOVE SURFACE LAYERS DUE TO THE
PRESENCE OF SNOW PACK AND THE PROCESS OF MELTING ICE. NOT
EXPECTING A WIDESPREAD FOG EVENT THOUGH.
WINDS WILL PICK UP TODAY AND TURN TO THE NORTHWEST. WIND GUSTS
OF 25-30 KTS ARE POSSIBLE STARTING LATE THIS MORNING INTO THIS
AFTERNOON.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE REGION DURING
THE DAY THURSDAY AND INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF OUR NEXT
WEATHER SYSTEM. DESPITE THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER, MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA, WITH THE
NOTABLE EXCEPTION OF LOWER STRATUS CLOUDS LIKELY LINGERING NEAR
BLUEFIELD AND LEWISBURG. BY FRIDAY, CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO
DETERIORATE TO SUB-VFR AS RAIN AND SNOW CHANCES DEVELOP,
PRIMARILY FOCUSED ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE STRETCHING FROM
BLUEFIELD TO ROANOKE AND DANVILLE. PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE FURTHER AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND,
BRINGING A HIGHER LIKELIHOOD OF PERSISTENT SUB-VFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES FOR THE REGION.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JCB/VFJ
AVIATION...RCS/VFJ
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