556
FXUS61 KRNK 092316
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
716 PM EDT THU JUL 9 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WAS TO LOWER POPS AS
BEST SUPPORT REMAINS TO THE NORTH, LOSE OF HEATING AND WESTERLY
FLOW REDUCES STORM THREAT. OTHERWISE, SEASONAL HEAT AND
HUMIDITY EXPECTED INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH SCATTERED
MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSHOWERS.
KEY MESSAGES
KEY MESSAGE 1: ISOLATED STORMS LINGER INTO THIS EVENING.
KEY MESSAGE 2: SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: ISOLATED STORMS LINGER INTO THIS EVENING.
SEASONALLY HUMID CONDITION ARE PRESENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THIS EVENING. A STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS DRAPED OVER THE AREA
WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING ACROSS WV. THESE FEATURES
IN COMBINATION WITH THE HEATING OF THE DAY HAVE AIDED IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN WV/WESTERN
VA, WITH STORMS TRACKING EASTWARD THROUGH THIS EVENING.
SUFFICIENT WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND MODERATE CAPE VALUES WILL
RESULT IN ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS BUT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS
LOOKS LESS THAN MARGINAL FOR OUR FORECAST AREA WHERE STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE DISORGANIZED. FARTHER NORTH INTO NOVA, WIND
FIELDS SUPPORT BETTER ORGANIZATION UP THAT WAY. AND FOR AREAS
FARTHER SOUTH INTO NC THE WESTERLY WIND HAVE ACTUALLY RESULT IN
DEMISE OF THERMAL CELLS DUE TO DOWNSLOPE FLOW. IN GENERAL WILL
MAINTAIN BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP ACROSS OUR WV COUNTIES AND ALONG
AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 460 IN VA...FADING TO JUST ISOLATED POPS
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER. MAIN HAZARD FROM ANYTHING
THAT DEVELOPS WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. DCAPE VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE 1000 J/KG EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE, SO THIS
SHOULD DRIVE SOME HEALTHY DOWNDRAFT WINDS.
PASSAGE OF SHORT WAVE AND LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL LEAD TO
DIMINISHING ACTIVITY AFTER SUNSET. LOOK FOR STRATUS AND FOG FOR
THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS OVERNIGHT. WITH STRONGER WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT, DO NOT EXPECT STRATUS TO BE AS IMPACTFUL FOR THE
FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT.
KEY MESSAGE 2: SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
CURRENT QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT IS EXPECTED TO WASH OUT AND LOSE
ITS IDENTITY. A MORE BONAFIDE SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY WILL TRIGGER INCREASED COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR THE WEEKEND, WITH THE FRONT EVENTUALLY
PASSING SOUTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY LEADING TO SOMEWHAT DRIER
CONDITIONS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS ENSEMBLES INDICATE SOME
LINGERING CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA
MONDAY, BUT OVERALL THE TREND IS STILL FOR A FEW DAYS OF
COOLING AND DRYING BEFORE WE HEAT BACK UP TOWARD THE END OF
NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNSET WITH
GREATEST COVERAGE NORTH OF THE ROANOKE VALLEY, OR NORTH OF A
BLF-BCB- ROA-LYH LINE. ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS OR PASSES NEAR
ANY TERMINALS HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY, ERRATIC WINDS, HEAVY
RAIN, OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING, AND TEMPORARY REDUCTION OF
VISIBILITY. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET WITH DEVELOPMENT OF MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG AND STRATUS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WIND FIELDS MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT FOG AT
ROA, LYH, AND DAN. FOR FRIDAY, EXPECTING ANOTHER DAY OF
SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN THE OVERALL PATTERN, LOW TO
MODERATE IN STORM COVERAGE.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
SCATTERED, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH GREATEST COVERAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. HEAVY DOWNPOURS, GUSTY WINDS, AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS
ARE ALL POSSIBLE IN ANY OF THE STRONGER STORMS. PATCHY FOG IS
ALSO LIKELY DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS, ESPECIALLY WHERE
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OCCURRED DURING THE EVENING BEFORE. ANY FOG
WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY AFTER 13Z DAILY.
DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...PM/RCS
AVIATION...PM/RCS
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