415
FXUS61 KRNK 281736
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
136 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
HAVE ADJUSTED POPS THIS AFTERNOON TO RADAR AND CAM MODEL TRENDS.
SUNDAY AND BEYOND, LIMITED CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.
AVIATION UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
1) PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DECREASE BY TUESDAY.
STILL A FEW HEAVY RAINS, POTENTIAL STRONG STORMS THIS AFTERNOON
MAINLY IN SOUTHSIDE VA INTO THE NC PIEDMONT.
2) HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR WED-SAT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...SHOWER AND STORM COVERAGE LESSENS INTO EARLY
WEEK. STILL A FEW STRONG STORMS/HEAVY DOWNPOURS THIS AFTERNOON
MAINLY IN NC INTO SOUTHSIDE VA.
DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM UPSTREAM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION HAS PUT A LID
ON INSTABILITY IN THE MOUNTAINS AND NORTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER.
SOME SUN IS ALLOWING FOR SBCAPES TO REACH 1000-1500 J/KG IN THE
SOUTH. THIS WOULD BE THE AREA TO WATCH FOR ANY STRONG STORM
DEVELOPMENT. SO FAR RADAR TRENDS ARE MAINLY SHOWING LOWER TOPPED
HEAVY RAINERS WITH LIMITED IF ANY LIGHTNING. BETTER SEVERE
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL BE SOUTH OF I-40 IN NC TOWARD THE SC
BORDER.
WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING AS PWATS RUNNING FROM
1.7 TO 2 INCHES WEST TO EAST, ESPECIALLY IN TRAINING CELLS.
SHOWERS START TO FADE AS FRONT WORKS SOUTH TONIGHT BUT
ATMOSPHERE REMAINS HIGHLY MOIST, SO CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED
SHOWERS, OR EVEN DRIZZLE ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE.
MONDAY LOOKS LIKE LESS COVERAGE BUT ANOTHER UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE
ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE COULD LEAD TO WIDELY SCATTERED
STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGE 2...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR DURING THE
LATTER HALF OF THIS WEEK.
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD BUILD NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY BETWEEN MONDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS RIDGE
COULD BECOME CENTERED OVERHEAD BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WHILE
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD LESSEN DUE TO
CAPPING ALOFT, THE BIGGER IMPACT WILL BE THE INCREASING HEAT AND
HUMIDITY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD JUMP NOTABLY AFTER TUESDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE 90S FOR MOST LOCATIONS AND EVEN A FEW LOWER 100S
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK. HEAT
INDICES COULD REACH UP TO 105 DEGREES ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. THERE
MAY BE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CANADA THAT
COULD START TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN THE RIDGE TOWARDS THE END OF
THIS WEEK, BUT INDEPENDENCE DAY LOOKS TO STAY HOT AND HUMID.
MAKE SURE TO HAVE PLENTY OF WATER AND SUNSCREEN, AND CHECK YOUR
AIR CONDITIONERS TO ENSURE THAT THEY ARE WORKING PROPERLY.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD, WITH
POTENTIAL SHOWERS IN THE WEST/TSRA IN THE EAST REDUCING VSBYS TO
IFR. TRIED TO HAVE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON, THEN DRY THINGS OUT TONIGHT. MAY BE A PERIOD OF VFR
BUT WITH LOTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND FRONT MOVING THROUGH AM
EXPECTING SOME LOWER CIGS TO DEVELOP AS WELL AS SUB-VFR FOG,
ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS.
SHOULD START TO SCATTER OUT THE LOWER CIGS/VSBYS BY 13-15Z
MONDAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON,
AND MORE ISOLATED THE REST OF THE WEEK, BUT THE UPCOMING WEEK
WILL FEATURE HIGH PRESSURE AND MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS, OUTSIDE
ANY LATE NIGHT FOG.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...PW/WP
AVIATION...EB/WP
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