565
FXUS61 KRNK 301038
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
638 AM EDT WED SEP 30 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A WARMING TREND BEGINS TODAY AND PEAKS FRIDAY,
WITH A COLD AIR WEDGE BUILDING IN FOR THE WEEKEND BEHIND A COLD
FRONT PASSAGE.
1) THE CURRENT PERIOD OF DRY AND CLEAR WEATHER ENDS FRIDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: A WARMING TREND BEGINS TODAY AND PEAKS FRIDAY,
WITH A COLD AIR WEDGE BUILDING IN FOR THE WEEKEND BEHIND A COLD
FRONT PASSAGE.
THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE POLO IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC ARE
CURRENTLY MERGING WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST STATES. AS THIS MERGING CONTINUES TO PROGRESS EASTWARD
INTO WEST TEXAS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES, WITH THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY LIKELY ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID-
ATLANTIC STATES REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING
TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF A COLD FRONT
PUSHES INTO THE REGION LATE ON FRIDAY.
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOOKS TO STRETCHED OUT
OVER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST, AND MERGE WITH A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS PROGGED TO PUSH EAST THROUGH THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION BY LATE FRIDAY. BEHIND THIS COLD
FRONT, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE FROM THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE NORTHEAST, WHICH WILL
BRIEFLY LEAD TO COLD AIR WEDGING DEVELOPING OVER VA/NC LATE
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL DRAMATICALLY COOL TEMPERATURES
AREAWIDE BACK TO NORMAL OR JUST BELOW NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND.
THE POSSIBILITY OF A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND STRONGER
COLD FRONT LOOK TO PUSH INTO THE REGION LATE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY, WHICH LOOKS TO REINFORCE THE COLD AIR AND COLD AIR
WEDGE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 2: THE CURRENT PERIOD OF DRY AND CLEAR WEATHER ENDS
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN.
WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY NIGHT, AND MOISTURE
FROM THE REMNANTS FROM POLO OVERRIDING THE FRONT, THE REGION
LOOKS TO BE IN STORE FOR A COUPLE DAYS OF COOL AND RAINY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SPECIFICS ON RAINFALL TOTALS ARE
STILL UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME, AS ENSEMBLE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS
SHIFTED TOWARDS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR ALOFT
INHIBITING RAINFALL PRODUCTION ACROSS THE AREA. THE CUTOFF LINE
OF DRY VS MOIST AIR IS QUITE EVIDENT AND SHARP, AND THE
PLACEMENT OF THIS LINE AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS WILL PLAY
A GREAT ROLE IN HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION THE AREA SEES OVER THE
WEEKEND. IF THIS LINE REMAINS ACROSS NORTHERN VA, MUCH OF THE
AREA WILL SEE BENEFICIAL RAINFALL; HOWEVER, IF THIS LINE OF
DRIER AIR PENETRATES FURTHER SOUTH BEYOND THE I-64 CORRIDOR,
THEN MUCH OF THE AREA WILL MISS OUT ON ANY HEAVY RAINFALL.
AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
MVFR TO LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS HAVE EXPANDED TO ALL TERMINALS THIS
MORNING EXCEPT BLF. THESE RESTRICTIONS WILL LIKELY LIFT TO VFR
LEVELS IN THE 12-14 UTC TIMEFRAME.
OUTSIDE OF THESE POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS, THIS MORNING, VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT ALL TERMINALS, EXCEPT LWB
WHERE ANOTHER MORNING OF LIFR VSBYS LOOKS LIKELY ON THURSDAY.
WINDS WILL REMAIN CALM THROUGH DAY BREAK, THEN BECOME
SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY BY THE MID MORNING HOURS AT ALL
TERMINALS. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 5 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY,
EXCEPT FOR MORNING FOG IN MOUNTAIN AND RIVER VALLEYS. BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, EXPECT INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH LOW STRATUS, FOG, AND
MODERATE RAIN BRINGS PERIODS MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS,
ESPECIALLY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
NE TO E WINDS DEVELOP OVER THE WEEKEND FOR TAF SITES EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE AS COLD AIR DAMMING BEGINS. WINDS WILL BE MORE
VARIABLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS INITIALLY BEFORE TURNING ESE
SATURDAY NIGHT. SOME GUSTS EXPECTED BUT NOTHING OVER 20 KTS
EXCEPT IN THUNDERSTORMS.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...EB
AVIATION...AS/EB
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