111
FXUS61 KRNK 210559
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
159 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE AVIATION FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED.
INCREASING CONFIDENCE FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. HEAVY DOWNPOURS LIKELY AND POSSIBLY STRONG
GUSTY WINDS IN THE STRONGER STORMS.
KEY MESSAGES
KEY MESSAGE 1: THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON, FOLLOWED
BY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND CONTINUED SHOWER CHANCES INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON, FOLLOWED
BY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND CONTINUED SHOWER CHANCES INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH THE DAY.
MEANWHILE, A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY MOVES SOUTH,
JUST EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS FRONT,
ALONG WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT FROM THE WEST WILL BE THE MAIN
FOCUS FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON. STILL A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAST THE BACKDOOR FRONT PROGRESSES SOUTH,
BUT CURRENT OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT PROGRESSION SOUTH HAS
BEEN SLOW. THIS LEADS TO SLIGHTLY BETTER CONFIDENCE THAT ENOUGH
WARMING WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TO SUPPORT WIDELY
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD
SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED, MERGING CLUSTERS OF STORMS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF LOCALIZED STRONG WIND GUSTS. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE AS WELL, SO STORMS WILL HAVE
EFFICIENT RAINFALL RATES. AS A RESULT, LOCALIZED FLOODING FROM
RUNOFF IN URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS ARE POSSIBLE.
WEDGING SHOULD STRENGTHEN ON FRIDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES NORTHEAST. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REMAIN ON THE COOLER
SIDE OF GUIDANCE DUE TO WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER. REPEATED ROUNDS
OF RAIN WILL OCCUR THROUGHOUT FRIDAY AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
WITH CONTINUED SOUTHWEST FLOW ADVECTING MOIST AIR NORTH OVER THE
SHALLOW WEDGE. THIS RAIN SHOULD HOPEFULLY BRING MUCH NEEDED
RELIEF FOR THE ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS. THE WEDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE SHOULD EVENTUALLY WEAKEN BY MEMORIAL DAY. WHILE CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK,
THE OVERALL COVERAGE APPEARS MORE SCATTERED AND SHOULD RESEMBLE
A MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL PATTERN.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THIS
MORNING, BUT THERE MAY BE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUING
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY BY EARLY AFTERNOON,
DRIFTING SOUTH THROUGH THE EVENING GIVING WAY TO LINGERING RAIN
AND DRIZZLE TONIGHT. STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF VERY HEAVY RAIN,
ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WET MICROBURST IN THE STRONGER
CELLS.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TODAY, AND CEILING HEIGHTS SHOULD STEADILY
DROP THROUGH THE DAY. CEILINGS SHOULD FALL TOWARD IFR FOR MOST
LOCATIONS BY THIS EVENING A NORTHEAST WIND MAY GUST UP TO 20
KNOTS AT DAN AND LYH. NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN
TONIGHT RESULTING IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG...EXPECT WIDESPREAD
IFR/LIFR AT ALL TERMINALS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND CLOUDS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY AND
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, WHICH WILL KEEP CEILINGS AT IFR AND MVFR
FOR MOST TERMINALS. A NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BRING MOISTURE TO KEEP
SKIES GENERALLY CLOUDY AND PROVIDE SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR
PATCHY FOG. SOME CLEARING MAY TAKE PLACE BY MONDAY TO BRING
CEILINGS BACK TOWARDS VFR, BUT THERE MAY BE SCATTERED AFTERNOON
CONVECTION.
NOTE: THE BLUEFIELD (KBLF) ASOS IS CURRENTLY DOWN DUE TO A
MAJOR POWER SUPPLY FAILURE. REPLACEMENT PARTS HAVE BEEN ORDERED.
ETA OF THIS REPAIR IS CURRENTLY UNKNOWN. THUS, AMD NOT SKED IS
BEING UTILIZED FOR THE BLF TAF.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BMG
AVIATION...BMG/PW
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