875
FXUS61 KRNK 041413
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
913 AM EST THU DEC 4 2025
SYNOPSIS
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE GULF COAST WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC BRINGING WINTRY
PRECIPITATION. COLD AIR OVER OUR REGION WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
PRIMARILY SNOW, BEGINNING TONIGHT, AND CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY,
BEFORE ENDING FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHT TO MODERATE ACCUMULATING
SNOW IS LIKELY.
UPDATED NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 900 AM EST THURSDAY...
FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE DAY IS ON TRACK. A COLD FRONT WILL MAKE
ITS WAY THROUGH TODAY AND BRING IN COLDER AIR BEHIND IT. WINDS WILL
PICK UP, BE FROM THE NORTHWEST, AND GUST BETWEEN 10-20 MPH ALONG AND
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. CLOUD COVER WILL EXPAND INTO THE EVENING AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAKES IT APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 500 AM EST THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
1) WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR LIGHT TO MODERATE ACCUMULATING
SNOW TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...AREAWIDE.
2) SNOW COVERED ROADS ARE EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY MORNING COMMUTE.
IN SPITE OF THE KEY MESSAGES, TRANQUIL WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS
MORNING, A CALM BEFORE THE STORM SORT OF FEEL. THE DAY WILL
START OFF MAINLY CLEAR WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING AFTER A COLD
START...READINGS CLIMBING INTO THE 30S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND
40S TO NEAR 50 IN THE PIEDMONT. THIS TRANQUIL PERIOD SHOULD BE A
TIME FOR PREPARATION FOR TONIGHT'S ONSET OF WINTRY
PRECIPITATION.
THE TRANQUIL START GIVES WAY TO A RAPID CHANGE LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON AS AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
MID-ATLANTIC...WINDS INCREASING AND BECOMING GUSTY AT TIMES.
THIS FRONT WILL ALSO BRING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR,
TEMPERATURES TUMBLING QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO
A DEVELOPING LOW-PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH, WHICH WILL
LIKELY BRING LIGHT TO MODERATE ACCUMULATING SNOW TO OUR REGION
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. MODEL TRENDS HAVE SPED-UP THE ONSET OR
ARRIVAL OF PRECIPITATION...BEGINNING WEST OF I-77 BETWEEN 7PM
AND MIDNIGHT, THEN SPREADING EAST OF I-77 AFTER MIDNIGHT. QPF
HAS ALSO TRENDED UP, WITH LIQUID EQUIVALENT VALUES DOUBLING
SINCE YESTERDAY...0.1 TO 0.3 NOW BEING FORECAST. CONVERT THIS TO
SNOW AND THIS YIELDS 1-3 INCHES WITH RESPECT TO A 10:1 RATIO.
RATIOS MAY BE CLOSER TO 15:1 DUE TO THE ARRIVAL OF COLDER AIR
FROM THE NORTH, SO THIS RANGE MAY BE SKEWED SLIGHTLY HIGHER
PENDING VALIDATION OF THE QPF.
PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE (HREF GRAND ENSEMBLE) IS HIGH FOR
ALL LOCATIONS WITHIN THE CWA GETTING 1 INCH OF SNOW...80-100
PERCENT CHANCE. FOR 2 INCHES OF SNOW...50-80 PERCENT CHANCE. FOR
3" SNOW 20-50 PERCENT CHANCE. FOR 4 INCHES OR MORE...10-20
PERCENT CHANCE. GIVEN MODEL TRENDS WHICH HAVE SHOWN HIGHER RUN-
RUN INCREASES IN QPF...THINK IT IS REASONABLE TO RAISE THE UPPER
RANGE OF THE SNOW FORECAST...ESP ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO NEAR 4
INCHES.
ALL THINGS CONSIDERED...LOOKS THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING US OUR
FIRST WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT ROADS WILL
BE IMPACTED FOR THE FRIDAY MORNING COMMUTE...PRETREATMENT
RECOMMENDED. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL
COUNTIES WITHIN THE CWA WITH THE CRUX OF THE SNOW FALLING
BETWEEN MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND NOON FRIDAY. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED
TO END OR TAPER TO DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW FREEZING AREAWIDE
WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 20S NEAR I-64 TO THE UPPER 20S
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL
STRUGGLE TO GET ABOVE FREEZING.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 500 AM EST THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) FREEZING DRIZZLE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHTS SOUTH OF US-
460.
2) RAIN CHANCES RETURN SUNDAY AFTERNOON, BUT WILL BE LIGHT.
3) BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE.
WHILE THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE WILL HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT, FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL STILL BE PRESENT, PARTICULARLY
IN THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT AREAS, WHICH COULD LEAD TO A VERY LIGHT
GLAZE OVER ANY SNOW THAT FELL EARLIER IN THE DAY. THIS CONTINUES FOR
MOST OF THE NIGHT, BEFORE CLEARING OUT BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY. A FEW
FLURRIES MAY BE POSSIBLE IN WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY SATURDAY
MORNING, BUT THIS QUICKLY ENDS LATE MORNING. QUIET AND DRY WEATHER
CONTINUES FOR THE REST OF THE DAY AREA-WIDE. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
MOVES BY TO OUR SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, IN CONJUNCTION
WITH A SUBTLE UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH, WHICH COULD BRING A
CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN TO AREAS ALONG THE NC/VA BORDER
AND SOUTH. CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS LOW AS THE SYSTEM AND MOISTURE MAY
REMAIN TOO FAR SOUTH. NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED AND ANY PRECIPITATION
ENDS BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY.
SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE DRY INITIALLY, BUT A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON, WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SOME RAIN
SHOWERS TO OCCUR, MAINLY WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. SOUTH OF THE NC/VA
BORDER COULD ALSO SEE RAIN SHOWERS, DUE TO BEING CLOSER TO A NEWLY
FORMED COASTAL LOW. RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE MORE ISOLATED FOR THE VA
PIEDMONT. QPF TOTALS WILL BE MINIMAL, LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH
FOR THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS AND ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS AT BEST
ELSEWHERE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL BUT STILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW
ACROSS THE AREA. HIGHS FOR BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE
40S, WITH A FEW UPPER 30S FOR THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. OVERNIGHT LOWS
STAY CONSISTENT, IN THE 20S/30S EACH MORNING.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 500 AM EST THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE MONDAY MORNING.
2) QUIET WEATHER UNTIL THE NEXT RAIN CHANCE ARRIVES WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
3) TEMPERATURES MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL BY MIDWEEK.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE POSITIVELY TILTED AND OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW A FEW
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TO FORM, MAINLY WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. POPS
REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW, AROUND 30%. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTO THE NORTHEAST US, SPREADING DOWN
INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC ON MONDAY. THE HIGH WILL ALLOW FOR QUIET AND
DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDWEEK, BEFORE IT SHIFTS OFFSHORE. A COLD
FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT, BRINGING A
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND SOME MOUNTAIN SNOW ONCE AGAIN.
HIGHS REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL MONDAY AND TUESDAY, WITH
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS KEEPING HIGHS IN THE 30S/40S BOTH DAYS. AS THE
HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE MIDWEEK, WINDS TURN SOUTHERLY, RAISING HIGHS
INTO THE 40S/50S. LOWS WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE 20S/30S EACH MORNING,
THOUGH TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE THE COLDEST, IN THE TEENS/20S.
AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 545 AM EST THURSDAY...
THE MAIN AVIATION HAZARD TODAY WILL BE SOME GUSTY WINDS WITH
THE PASSAGE OF AN ARCTIC FRONT. ASIDE FROM THE WIND, VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST TERMINALS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS
THROUGH MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WITH MVFR
CLOUD BASES ARE EXPECTED AGAINST WESTERN SLOPES OF THE
APPALACHIANS TODAY.
AFTER TODAY, AND MORE SO FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT ONWARD, FOCUS IS
ON THE DEVELOPMENT AND TRACK OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING SNOW TO ALL TERMINAL AREAS WITHIN THE RNK CWA BEGINNING
AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE MORNING PUSH
FRIDAY. ACCUMULATING SNOW IS LIKELY WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR IFR
AND LIFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AFTER 06Z/1AM FRIDAY WITH IMPACTS
TO ALL LOCAL TERMINALS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK
STORM SYSTEM MOVES EAST AND OFF THE COAST FRIDAY NIGHT. LOW
CONFIDENCE THAT SKIES CLEAR HOWEVER WITH MVFR OR LOWER CIGS
PERSISTING INTO THE WEEKEND.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
FRIDAY FOR VAZ007-009-015.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 PM EST
FRIDAY FOR VAZ010>014-016>020-022>024-032>035.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR
VAZ043>047-058-059.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
FRIDAY FOR NCZ001-002-018.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 PM EST
FRIDAY FOR NCZ003>006-019-020.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 PM EST
FRIDAY FOR WVZ042>044-507-508.
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...CG/PM
SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...PM
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