575
FXUS61 KRNK 030647
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
247 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
HEAT ADVISORY CONTINUES TODAY FOR THE VA PIEDMONT INTO CASWELL
COUNTY NC.
SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY, STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE EAST OF
THE MOUNTAINS AND MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 460 THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT 11 AM TO 8 PM FOR PARTS OF THE VA AND
NC PIEDMONT.
2) MULTIPLE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TODAY
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. SOME STRONG/SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: HEAT ADVISORY TODAY FOR PARTS OF THE VA AND NC
PIEDMONTS.
AN H5 RIDGE OVER THE AREA BEGINS TO BE SUPPRESSED AND SHIFT
SOUTHWEST WITH TIME OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS ALLOWS
TEMPERATURES TO GRADUAL MODERATE OVER OUR AREA.
TEMPERATURES STAY WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER THROUGH
SATURDAY. HEAT INDICES OF 100 TO 108 ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
PIEDMONT AND URBAN AREAS LIKE ROANOKE. THE HOTTEST READINGS WILL
BE FARTHER EAST TOWARDS BUCKINGHAM COUNTY. ANY AFTERNOON CLOUD
COVER/DEBRIS AND CONVECTION COULD LOWER HEAT INDEX VALUES. FOR
TODAY, A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF THE VA AND
NC PIEDMONT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING. ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY
MAY BE CONSIDERED FOR PARTS OF THE PIEDMONT OF VA AND NC AND
URBAN AREAS LIKE ROANOKE FOR FRIDAY.
WE WILL SEE A SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN TEMPERATURES FOR THE
WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY SUNDAY, AS DRIER AND COOLER AIR FOLLOWS THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. AFTER A COUPLE OF COOLER DAYS, WARMER
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY, WITH HEAT INDICES IN
THE 90S.
SOME RECORD TEMPERATURES MAY BE TIED OR BROKEN; SEE CLIMATE
SECTION BELOW.
KEY MESSAGE 2: MULTIPLE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. SOME STRONG/SEVERE STORMS
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
TODAY, FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE STRONGEST TO OUR EAST, BUT
BUCKINGHAM COUNTY VA TOWARDS CASWELL COUNTY NC WILL SEE A CHANCE
OF STORMS ALONG WITH THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE. A FEW OF THESE
COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS. FRIDAY EVENING A
COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH, MOVING SOUTH
THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT
MID LEVEL WAVE WILL CROSS THE AREA DURING PEAK HEATING EACH DAY.
THESE FACTORS WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS.
THE FRONTAL ZONE WILL COINCIDE WITH A BELT OF 40-45 KT WEST-
NORTHWEST MID-LEVEL FLOW AND MODERATE INSTABILITY, YIELDING
SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR AND FUEL FOR MULTICELLS AND SOMEWHAT
ORGANIZED LINE SEGMENTS AND/OR BOWING STRUCTURES, AND PERHAPS A
SUPERCELL OR TWO. THE PRIMARY HAZARD WILL BE DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS, THOUGH ISOLATED OCCURRENCES OF LARGE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE
WITH ANY SUPERCELLS THAT MAY EVOLVE.
THERE WILL BE ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY, BUT THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT SUPPORT IN THE MID LEVELS,
SO STORMS SHOULD BE WEAK. MONDAY AND TUESDAY LOOK DRY WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING FOR THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS
FOR MIDWEEK.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WITH PERIODS OF MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG
VCNTY OF LWB AND OTHER RIVER VALLEYS WHERE VSBY AS LOW AS 1/4SM
ARE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 07-14Z.
ANOTHER OPPORTUNITY FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS IS
POSSIBLE MAINLY AFFECTING LYH AND DAN LATE THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT
AS A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX MOVES IN FROM THE NNW. AFTER 02Z,
EXPECT MOSTLY VFR WITH PERIODS OF LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS AGAIN FOR
LWB IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
A COLD FRONT BACKDOORS INTO THE AREA FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS. ASIDE FROM SUB-VFR FROM THE
STORMS, TERMINALS SHOULD BE VFR OUTSIDE OF MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG
IN THE EARLY MORNING, ESPECIALLY AT LWB AND WHERE IT RAINS. A
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SUB-VFR SUNDAY WITH NORTHEAST FLOW, THEN
AGAIN ON VFR MONDAY.
CLIMATE
TODAY 09/03/2026
SITE MAXT YEAR HIMIN YEAR
KBLF 94 1953 75 1925
KDAN 99 1980 77 1931
KLYH 96 1953 72 1993
KROA 101 1930 73 2020
KRNK 96 1900 68 1941
FRIDAY 09/04/2026
SITE MAXT YEAR HIMIN YEAR
KBLF 93 1925 74 1925
KDAN 101 1925 74 1993
KLYH 99 1925 72 1970
KROA 99 1925 80 1930
KRNK 93 1925 68 1953
SATURDAY 09/05/2026
SITE MAXT YEAR HIMIN YEAR
KBLF 95 1954 76 1925
KDAN 101 1954 73 2012
KLYH 99 1954 71 1979
KROA 101 1954 72 2019
KRNK 93 1925 70 1899
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR VAZ034-035-044>047-058-059.
NC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR NCZ006.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SH
AVIATION...SH
CLIMATE...SH
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