834
FXUS61 KRNK 051653
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1253 PM EDT FRI JUN 5 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION UPDATED.
INCREASE CLOUD COVER SLIGHTLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH MORE FAIR
WEATHER CUMULUS FORMING OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
LOWERED HIGH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY IN THE MOUNTAINS/FOOTHILLS
MONDAY PER WEDGE/EASTERLY FLOW AND POTENTIAL FOR MORE
CLOUDS/SHOWERS.
KEY MESSAGES
KEY MESSAGE 1: WILL SEE INCREASE IN CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS
NEXT WEEK, BUT STILL NOT A WASHOUT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: TREND FOR MORE DIURNAL DRIVEN SHOWER/STORM
ACTIVITY NEXT WEEK BUT NOT A WASHOUT.
MODELS KEEP US STAYING DRY WITH WARM TEMPERATURES INTO SATURDAY.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDES SOUTH LATER SUNDAY. BEST AREAL
COVERAGE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS APPEARS TO STAY ALONG AND NORTH OF
I-64.
DAYTIME HEATING SUNDAY AND BOUNDARY-LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S
ARE EXPECTED TO SUPPORT MODERATE AFTERNOON INSTABILITY AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE LARGELY
UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES WITH 30-40 KT OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR,
WHICH WOULD FAVOR SOME COLD POOL ORGANIZATION WITH AN ASSOCIATED
RISK FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS INTO EARLY EVENING, MAINLY
IN THE PIEDMONT AND POINTS EAST.
THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SOUTH OF US MONDAY
BUT ANOTHER WAVE SHIFTS THE WARM FRONT BACK NORTH MONDAY ACROSS
KY/TN SUCH THAT HIGHER POPS WILL BE OVER THE UPPER TN VALLEY
WITH LOWER CHANCES FURTHER EAST. NUMERICAL MODELS SEEM TO AGREE
ON THIS BUT EC MODEL IS DRIER. WE ARE LIKELY TO SEE COOLER
HIGHS IN THE MOUNTAINS IF THE WEDGE SETS UP FASTER WITH MORE
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS, WITH POTENTIAL HIGHS IN THE 70S. THE NBM IS
STILL WARMER, WHICH IS A KNOWN BIAS FOR WEDGES. THE HIGH SLIDES
SOUTH OVER TIME WITH FLOW TURNING MORE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WITH
RESIDUAL BOUNDARY IN THE AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO MORE OF A
DIURNAL TREND FOR SHOWERS/STORMS MIDWEEK. MUCH NEEDED RAIN BUT
NOT A WASHOUT AND NOT EVERYONE WILL SEE RAIN, BUT HUMIDITY
LEVELS LOOK TO BE ON THE INCREASE.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE CURRENT TAF
PERIOD. KEEPING VFR AT LWB AS DRIER AIR AND LESS MOISTURE
SHOULD KEEP FOG AT A MINIMUM.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD, OUTSIDE ANY
SHOWER/STORMS THAT OCCUR. HIGHER PROBABILITY FOR SUB-VFR WILL
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE WEDGES IN WITH
EASTERLY FLOW BRINGING LOWER CIG POTENTIAL FOR MOST SITES.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NCZ004>006.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...EB/WP
AVIATION...EB/WP
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