292
FXUS61 KRNK 230124
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
924 PM EDT FRI OCT 22 2021
SYNOPSIS
A DISTURBANCE WILL SKIRT BY TO THE NORTH TONIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING BACK INTO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND.
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK AS A SERIES
OF VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES TRACK FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE U.S.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 920 PM EDT FRIDAY...
AGAIN, NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST. HAVE MADE MINOR
TWEAKS TO HOURLY TEMPERATURE, DEW POINT, WIND/GUSTS GRIDS BASED
UPON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND EXPECTED TRENDS INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN GREENBRIER
COUNTY ARE LOOKING MORE PROMISING WITH A RECENT REPORT OF LIGHT
RAIN AT NEARBY BECKLEY, WV.
AS OF 633 PM EDT FRIDAY...
NO MAJOR CHANGES IN THE FORECAST AREA PLANNED FOR THIS UPDATE.
HOWEVER, A SMALL ADJUSTMENT DELAYS ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS
WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING, AND ALSO
DELAYS THEIR ENDING UNTIL LATE MORNING SATURDAY. HAVE MADE MINOR
TWEAKS TO HOURLY TEMPERATURE, DEW POINT, AND SKY COVER BASED
UPON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND EXPECTED TRENDS THROUGH THE
EVENING.
AS OF 145 PM EDT FRIDAY...
COLD FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING HAS MADE IT
EAST OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON.
QUITE A SPREAD IN TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
AS PERSISTENT NORTHWEST/WEST FLOW CONTINUES TO KEEP LOCATIONS
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE UNDER STRATUS. THOSE WHO ARE LOCKED IN
UNDER THE CLOUD COVER ARE ONLY IN THE 50S. FURTHER EAST INTO THE
PIEDMONT, BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER HAVE ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO
RISE INTO THE LOW 70S. EXPECT TO SEE SOME OF THE ONGOING STRATUS
TO ERODE SOMEWHAT ALONG ITS EASTERN FRINGES LATER THIS
AFTERNOON, BUT THINKING IT WILL BE TOO LATE FOR MUCH WARMING.
THEREFORE, LOWERED HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON A COUPLE
DEGREES FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT REINFORCING CLOUD
COVER FOR THE WESTERN LOCATIONS. MAY HAVE A FEW SHOWERS ALONG
THE WESTERN SLOPES IN WEST VIRGINIA, BUT THESE WILL BE LIGHT AND
ISOLATED.
SATURDAY, MORE SUN LIKELY THAN TODAY, BUT STILL MAY TAKE NEARLY
ALL DAY TO FINALLY ERODE THE STRATUS FOR FAR SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA
AND SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA. NO RAIN EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO BUILD IN OVERHEAD. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THAN TODAY.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 245 PM EDT FRIDAY...
OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH
AMOUNTS OF 0.20 TO 0.50...
A SHORT WAVE EMANATING FROM THE WEST COAST WILL MOVE EAST
SPARKING CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS, THE LOW CROSSING
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT, AND ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY ON MONDAY. INCREASING SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM WILL BRING WARMING TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...850MB TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE +14 TO +16 DEG C
RANGE SUNDAY, AND +16 TO +18 DEG C RANGE MONDAY. THIS WILL
ELEVATE OUR TEMPERATURES BACK ABOVE NORMAL BY AT LEAST 10 DEG F.
MAIN THREAT FOR RAIN DURING THIS PERIOD IS EXPECTED MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW PASSES TO OUR
NORTH, THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTH OF THE LOW AND
CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT. PREFRONTAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON, CONTINUING UP UNTIL
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 245 PM EDT FRIDAY..
OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH
AMOUNTS OF 0.30 TO 0.80...
AN ACTIVE STORM TRACK IS FORECAST ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL U.S.
AS THE LARGER SCALE FLOW FEATURES A DEVELOPING ANOMALOUS TROF
OVER THE EASTERN 2/3RDS OF THE COUNTRY BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF IMPACTFUL WEATHER ARE EXPECTED FOR THE WEST
COAST (FINALLY PUTTING AN END TO THEIR LONG FIRE SEASON), ENERGY
FROM THESE STORMS MOVING DOWNSTREAM AND CARVING OUT A LONG WAVE
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. EVOLUTION OF THIS LARGER SCALE
FEATURE IS GRADUALLY COMING INTO AGREEMENT ALTHOUGH LOCATION AND
TIMING OF THE INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES MAY DIFFER WITH RESPECT TO
WHICH MODEL YOU CONSIDER. ATTM, CONSENSUS IS FOR ANOTHER ROUND
OF RAIN DURING LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY TIME-FRAME,
WITH LINGERING UPSLOPE EFFECTS FROM LOW CLOUDS AND MOISTURE WEST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE FRIDAY. ASIDE FOR AN UPTICK IN TEMPERATURE
WEDNESDAY, PER SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT SURFACE FRONT,
THE OVERALL TREND FOR THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND IS FOR COOLING
AND A PROLONGED PERIOD OF CLOUDINESS.
AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 715 PM EDT FRIDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ALONG AND EAST OF THE
CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THROUGH THE EXTENT OF THE VALID TAF
PERIOD CONCLUDING 00Z/8PM SUNDAY/SATURDAY. ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS,
A PREVAILING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN AREAS OF
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUD COVER ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA, SOUTH
INTO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA. SEVERAL AREAS
WITHIN THIS REGION WILL SEE MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING THROUGH THE
NIGHT, AND CONTINUING INTO MID-MORNING SATURDAY BEFORE
DISSIPATING. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN
WEST OF KLWB OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. BRIEF,
PATCHY RIVER/MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AROUND
DAYBREAK SATURDAY.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE NIGHT THEN FROM THE
WEST AROUND 5 TO 10 KTS DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON ON
SATURDAY. SOME OF THE HIGHER RIDGE TOPS MAY SEE GUSTIER
CONDITIONS WITH 10 TO 20 KTS GUSTS POSSIBLE.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY MONDAY WILL
REMAIN VFR.
THREAT OF SHOWERS AND POTENTIAL SUB-VFR ARRIVES AS EARLY AS
MONDAY AFTERNOON LASTING INTO TUESDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT MOVES
ACROSS WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...BMG
NEAR TERM...BMG/DS/WP
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...BMG/DS/WP
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