760  
FXUS61 KRNK 022220  
AFDRNK  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA  
520 PM EST FRI DEC 2 2022  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH THE ROCKIES TODAY WILL PUSH A COLD  
FRONT AND SHOWERS THROUGH THE REGION ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE AND  
DRY WEATHER ARE EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE  
NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION RETURNS ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY  
WITH ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
 
 
AS OF 520 PM EST FRIDAY...  
 
MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS IN TEMPERATURES FOR THIS EVENING  
INTO TONIGHT UTILIZING THE LATEST SURFACE OBS, THEIR TRENDS,  
AND BLENDED IN THE NBM. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM  
THE MID 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER TO MID 40S IN  
PIEDMONT. ADJUSTED POPS AND WEATHER FOR TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY  
LEANING TOWARDS THE NAM. MORE CHANGES LATER TONIGHT.  
 
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:  
AS OF 140 PM EST FRIDAY...  
 
RAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...  
 
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS HAVE BEEN MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN BLUE  
RIDGE AND SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA THROUGH THIS MORNING, AS A  
RESULT OF INCREASED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT  
APPROACHING FROM THE MIDWEST. CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO  
INCREASE AND SPREAD THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE AREA BY THIS  
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RAIN AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY NOT  
REACH THE MOUNTAINS UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT, AND THE PIEDMONT LATER  
IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF SATURDAY.  
 
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND MID  
ATLANTIC BY LATE SATURDAY, KEEPING RAIN SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST  
THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. RAIN WILL  
DIMINISH QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA, BUT SOME  
UPSLOPE SHOWERS MAY LINGER.  
 
THE LOW LEVEL JET, AROUND 850MB, STRENGTHENS FROM THE SOUTHWEST  
BY SATURDAY MORNING, AND SURFACE WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO  
AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH, WITH HIGHER SPEEDS POSSIBLE ALONG THE  
RIDGELINES AND HIGHER ELEVATION LOCATIONS. THESE GUSTY WINDS  
WILL LAST THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY, BUT START TO DIMINISH  
FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.  
 
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND MOISTURE IN THE REGION RESULTING FROM THE  
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT AROUND THE LOW  
40S, AND HIGHS TOMORROW IN THE LOW 50S TO AROUND 60.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
AS OF 150 PM EST FRIDAY...  
 
CHILLY END TO THE WEEKEND, THEN RAIN POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY...  
 
NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST THIS PERIOD AS WILL SEE BRISK  
WINDS ATOP THE RIDGES SAT NIGHT BEHIND DEPARTING FRONT. SHOULD BE  
DRY THOUGH COULD SEE A FEW SPRINKLES/SHOWERS AROUND THE START OF THE  
EVENING IN THE NC MTNS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE MIDWEST  
OVERNIGHT AND ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC SUNDAY. FRONT THAT MOVES SOUTH  
SATURDAY WILL START TO HEAD BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT MONDAY. MODEL  
TRENDS HAVE DELAYED PRECIP SO LOOKING AT LOW CHANCE OF RAIN OVER THE  
MOUNTAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON.  
 
LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S SAT NIGHT, AS SOME HIGH CLOUDS SPREAD  
ACROSS. WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD SUN NIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE  
20S AREA WIDE, THOUGH SOME RETURN FLOW BEHIND THE HIGH MAY KEEP  
HIGHER RIDGES IN THE WEST IN THE 30S.  
 
MID LEVEL CLOUDS SUNDAY MORNING SHOULD SCATTER OUT BY AFTERNOON.  
HIGHS WILL RUN ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FROM AROUND 50 IN THE  
PIEDMONT TO THE LOWER TO MID 40S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.  
 
A FEW DEGREES WARMER MONDAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS. HIGHS WILL BE IN  
THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
AS OF 1155 AM EST FRIDAY...  
 
JET STREAM ACTIVE THIS PERIOD WITH A DAMP PATTERN...  
 
NOT SEEING AS MUCH OF A WINTER PRECIP THREAT THIS TIME AROUND AS  
MODELS TREND NORTH WITH THE FRONT/COLDER AIR, BUT THAT'S NOT TO SAY  
IT WILL NOT HAPPEN. BUT FOR NOW WILL MAINLY HAVE RAIN IN THE  
FORECAST FOR MOST OF THIS PERIOD AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAVERS BACK AND  
FORTH ACROSS THE AREA WHILE UPPER WAVES OF ENERGY PASS ACROSS.  
 
WHILE IT WILL NOT RAIN THE ENTIRE PERIOD, DRY WEATHER WILL BE HARD  
TO COME BY FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. DESPITE THE WET PERIOD, RAINFALL  
TOTALS OVERALL LOOK TO BE AVERAGING LESS THAN AN INCH, EXCEPT HIGHER  
ALONG/WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS, SO NOT FORESEEING ANY HYDRO ISSUES  
EITHER.  
 
DESPITE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES, WILL LEAN TOWARD BLENDING THEM AND  
ENSEMBLES.  
 
LOW TEMPERATURES FOR THE PERIOD WILL RUN ABOVE NORMAL DUE TO THE  
CLOUD COVER MOST OF THE TIME, WHILE HIGHS FLUCTUATE FROM NEAR NORMAL  
TO ABOVE NORMAL DEPENDING ON WHERE THE WARM AND COLD FRONTS ARE. WED-  
THU APPEAR MILDER THAN TUESDAY AND FRIDAY. WILL HAVE TO WATCH IMPACT  
OF POTENTIAL WEDGE TUESDAY AS THIS COULD CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO TURN  
OUT EVEN COOLER, SO ACTUALLY LOWERED THEM COMPARED TO MODEL  
GUIDANCE, BUT STILL IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S FOR TUESDAY.  
 
BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK, CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW AS MODELS DIVERGE  
EVEN MORESO AS GFS CLEARS THINGS OUT BRINGING IN COLDER AIR BEHIND  
THE FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT WHILE THE ECMWF/CMC HANG ONTO A FRONTAL  
SYSTEM, THOUGH UPPER LEVEL PATTERN STARTS SHOWING A RIDGE PUSHING  
INTO THE EASTERN U.S. BY SATURDAY.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
AS OF 1235 PM EST FRIDAY...  
 
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. SUB VFR  
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AS RAIN ENTERS THE AREA FROM THE WEST  
DURING THE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING HOURS, AND PERSISTING THROUGH  
THE DAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES EASTWARD.  
 
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS HAVE BEEN MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST WEST  
VIRGINA AND THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE, AND THIS TREND WILL  
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. CEILINGS WILL LOWER THROUGHOUT THE  
NIGHT.  
 
RAIN WILL REACH THE MOUNTAINS AFTER MIDNIGHT, AND SPREAD  
EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY, AND LOWER  
VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY WITH THE RAIN SHOWERS. RAIN WILL  
CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THIS TAF VALID PERIOD, BUT WILL  
LIKELY DIMINISH BY SATURDAY EVENING.  
 
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH HIGHER  
WIND SPEEDS ACROSS THE RIDGELINES AND HIGHER ELEVATION  
LOCATIONS. AS THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES, LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR  
WILL INCREASE LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING, SO HAVE  
INCLUDED LLWS FOR ALL TAF SITES. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL  
LIKELY DECREASE BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON, TOWARDS THE END OF THIS  
TAF VALID PERIOD.  
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE.  
 
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...  
 
WINDS TURN THE THE WEST THEN NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT WITH  
WIND SPEEDS DIMINISHING ON SATURDAY NIGHT.  
 
VFR CONDITIONS RETURN FOR SUNDAY BEFORE YET ANOTHER FRONT  
BRINGS A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION  
FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SUB- VFR  
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY.  
 

 
   
EQUIPMENT
 
 
AS OF 700 PM EST THURSDAY...  
 
DANVILLE (DAN) ASOS IS BACK IN SERVICE. THE WIND SENSOR IS STILL  
OFFLINE AND WILL BE TURNED BACK ON AFTER MAINTENANCE IS  
COMPLETED FRIDAY.  
 

 
   
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
VA...NONE.  
NC...NONE.  
WV...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...AMS  
NEAR TERM...KK/AS  
SHORT TERM...WP  
LONG TERM...WP  
AVIATION...AMS/PM/AS  
EQUIPMENT...PM  
 
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