931
FXUS61 KRNK 041713
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
113 PM EDT THU JUN 4 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION UPDATED.
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
KEY MESSAGES
KEY MESSAGE 1: DRY WEATHER WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES INTO
SATURDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2: CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE
LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: DRY WEATHER WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES INTO
SATURDAY.
A LARGE AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN US
WILL DOMINATE THE REGION'S WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL
KEEP THE WEATHER DRY. THE 500MB RIDGE THAT WAS POSITIONED OVER
THE PLAINS WILL FLATTEN AND BECOME MORE CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN US BY FRIDAY, AS THE SURFACE HIGH SLOWLY SHIFTS
EASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC. THIS WILL RESULT IN SURFACE FLOW
TURNING SOUTHWESTERLY, USHERING IN WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR.
THIS, COMBINED WITH INCREASING 500MB HEIGHTS, WILL MEAN
TEMPERATURES RISE EACH DAY THROUGH FRIDAY, WHEN HIGHS LOOK TO
REACH THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S IN THE MOUNTAINS, AND UPPER 80S
TO LOW 90S IN THE PIEDMONT. HOWEVER, WITH DEWPOINTS MOSTLY IN
THE 50S, THE HUMIDITY WILL NOT FEEL TOO OPPRESSIVE AND HEAT
INDICES REMAIN AT OR BELOW THE ACTUAL AIR TEMPERATURE. THESE HOT
TEMPERATURES WILL LINGER UNTIL AT LEAST SUNDAY, WHEN A FRONT
DROPS SOUTH INTO THE MID ATLANTIC, AND TEMPERATURES DROP BEHIND
IT, PROVIDING A COOLER TEMPERATURES TO START THE NEXT WORK WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 2: CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE LATE
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE 500MB RIDGE STARTS TO BREAK DOWN SOMEWHAT LATE IN THE
WEEKEND, AS A TROUGH STARTS TO DIG SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN MID
ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH TOWARDS
THE AREA DURING THIS SAME TIME FRAME, WHICH COULD SPARK SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS VARY ON TIMING OF ANY
CONVECTION, BUT ARE COMING INTO SOME CONSENSUS OF LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY. EVEN THOUGH THAT TIMING IS NOT SUPER
FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT, MODELS DO SHOW ANYWHERE
FROM 500 TO 1500 J/KG OF MUCAPE DURING SUNDAY AFTERNOON, AND
WITH STRONGER FLOW ALOFT WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH, 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR BETWEEN 30 TO 35 KNOTS, THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE GEFS AND CSU MACHINE
LEARNING GUIDANCE DOES HIGHLIGHT PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC
SUNDAY FOR SOME SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL, ESPECIALLY FROM THE
PIEDMONT EAST TO THE COAST. DETAILS WILL BECOME CLEARER IN THE
COMING DAYS, BUT FOR NOW, CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW ON STORM
COVERAGE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT, WITH NBM
PROBABILITY OF 24 HOUR RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXCEEDING 0.25" THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING BETWEEN 15% TO 25% ACROSS THE LOCAL FORECAST
AREA.
SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES WILL DECREASE ONCE THE FRONT CLEARS THE
AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK, AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN US. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A WEAK WEDGE PATTERN
DEVELOPING, WHICH MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COOLER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE. THAT SAID, AMPLIFYING RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN US,
UPSTREAM OF THE TROUGH DEEPENING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST, OR
BECOMING MORE OF A CLOSED LOW, COULD LIMIT THE COOLING OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
WIDESPREAD VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD,
EXCEPT POTENTIAL MVFR/IFR FOG AT LWB AROUND 10-12Z FRI.
WINDS OVERALL WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY, OUTSIDE OF
POSSIBLE PATCHY FOG IN THE RIVER VALLEYS IN THE MORNINGS. A FRONT
APPROACHES LATE THIS WEEKEND TO BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, WHICH COULD RESULT
IN SOME FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS. ONCE THE FRONT CLEARS THE AREA
EARLY NEXT WEEK, VFR SHOULD RETURN AREAWIDE.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AS/WP
AVIATION...EB/WP
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