927
FXUS61 KRNK 162353
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
753 PM EDT FRI OCT 16 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
FREEZE WATCH ISSUED FOR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
FOR THE WESTERN MOUNTAIN COUNTIES.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE INCREASED ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND SOUTHSIDE
TODAY THROUGH TOMORROW.
INCREASING CHANCES FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE PIEDMONT
EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK.
REMOVED MENTION OF "TODAY" IN THE KEY MESSAGES IN THE AFD
NARRATIVE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT, SHOWERS CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY EARLY AFTERNOON. GUSTY
WINDS TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
2) FROST IN THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, SHOWERS CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY EARLY
AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
A COLD FRONT IS PROGRESSING THROUGH THE AREA, CURRENTLY NEAR A
LINE FROM HOT SPRINGS TO BLACKSBURG TO BOONE, AND IS TRIGGERING
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS. ADDITIONALLY, IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT
IN THE MORE UNSTABLE AIR WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE PIEDMONT, A
COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORMS HAVE OCCURRED.
THE 500MB TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT, AND SO EXPECT
SHOWERS TO LINGER DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING. AS THE MAIN PIECE OF ENERGY MOVES TO THE EAST
BY THE AFTERNOON, SHOWERS WILL ERODE GENERALLY FROM WEST TO
EAST, LEAVING THE REST OF THE DAY DRY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE
INCREASED, MAINLY FOR THE PIEDMONT AND VA SOUTHSIDE, SO COULD
NOW SEE UP TO A HALF OF AN INCH OF RAIN FOR THOSE AREAS, AND
BETWEEN TWO TO THREE TENTHS OF AN INCH ELSEWHERE.
WIND GUSTS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE, PEAKING DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT, AND GRADUALLY DIMINISHING BY SUNSET
SATURDAY, THOUGH SHIFTING FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHWEST
FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. GUSTS WILL BE BETWEEN 25 TO 35
MPH, LOCALLY HIGHER ALONG THE RIDGES. MAKE SURE TO SECURE ANY
OUTDOOR HALLOWEEN DECORATIONS.
KEY MESSAGE 2: FROST IN THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY MORNING.
CONFIDENCE HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF
FROST TO DEVELOP IN THE MOUNTAINS BY SUNDAY MORNING, AS HIGH
PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC WITH
CLEARING SKIES AND CALMER WINDS. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IS OVER THE
WESTERNMOST COUNTIES IN THE MOUNTAINS, FROM GREENBRIER COUNTY WV TO
WATAUGA COUNTY NC, WHERE LOOK TO FALL TO OR JUST BELOW FREEZING. THE
ELEVATED VALLEYS WILL BE EVEN MORE SUSCEPTIBLE TO FROST, AS THE
ATMOSPHERE DECOUPLES OVERNIGHT. A FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR THOSE LOCATIONS FOR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. TAKE STEPS NOW TO PROTECT COLD SENSITIVE VEGETATION.
NOT AS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN FROST FARTHER EAST, ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE BLUE RIDGE, AS THERE MAY BE ENOUGH WIND TO KEEP THE
ATMOSPHERE MIXED ENOUGH TO KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING.
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WILL BE COLD AS WELL, BUT NOT QUITE
AS COLD. STILL COLD ENOUGH TO WARRANT A HEAVIER COAT OR AN EXTRA
LAYER OR TWO WHILE WAITING AT THE BUS STOP. AFTER THAT, TEMPERATURES
START TO MODERATE TOWARDS NORMAL FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
EARLY NEXT WEEK, MODELS ARE COMING INTO CONSENSUS ON A PIECE OF
ENERGY ALOFT BECOMING CUT OFF FROM THE MAIN TROUGH AS IT TRACKS
TOWARDS THE COAST, AND A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT
ONCE IT MOVES OFFSHORE; HOWEVER, THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF
DISAGREEMENT IN THE EVENTUAL POSITIONING OF THE UPPER CUT OFF
LOW. WHILE ANY IMPACTS WILL BE MAINLY LIMITED TO THE COASTS,
GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED TOWARDS INCREASING RAIN CHANCES FOR THE
PIEDMONT AND SOUTHSIDE FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EAST THROUGH THE
AREA, CURRENTLY NEAR A KTNB-KBCB-KHSP LINE. ALONG WITH
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS, A SHARP WIND SHIFT WILL ALSO OCCUR
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT, AND SOME SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF KSIF-KLYH
LINE.
CEILINGS HEIGHTS WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE FLIGHT CATEGORIES
POST COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. CURRENTLY, PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS
STILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE PIEDMONT REGION, BUT MVFR HAS BECOME
MORE COMMON ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. LOOK FOR A TREND TO IFR/MVFR
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO LOW END VFR OR MVFR ACROSS PARTS OF THE
PIEDMONT. THE LOWER CEILINGS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE UNTIL THE FRONT'S PARENT UPPER TROUGH CROSSES THE
REGION SATURDAY MORNING. ONCE THIS FEATURE CROSSES THE REGION,
LOOK FOR A RAPID INCREASE TO VFR CONDITIONS FROM WEST TO EAST,
AND A CESSATION OF THE SHOWERS.
A QUICK WIND SHIFT TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS EVENING WHERE IT ALREADY HAS NOT ALREADY
HAPPENED. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY FROM THE NORTHWEST...20-25KTS
THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT AND
LOW PRESSURE MOVE EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC. WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE
SATURDAY EVENING TO 10KT OR LESS AROUND SUNSET, GOING LIGHT/CALM
OVERNIGHT. DRY WEATHER AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. ADDITIONAL CLOUDS AND SHOWERS MAY RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
FOR VAZ007-009-010-012-015.
NC...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
FOR NCZ001-018.
WV...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
FOR WVZ042>044-507-508.
DISCUSSION...AS/DS
AVIATION...BMG/DS
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