336
FXUS61 KRNK 250757
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
357 AM EDT SAT JUL 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE AVIATION FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED.
NO MAJOR CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.
2) THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE DURING THE EARLY HALF OF
THE WORKWEEK ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS SITUATED ACROSS THE LOWER MID-ATLANTIC
THIS MORNING, WITH NORTHEASTERLY WINDS DRAWING COOL MARITIME AIR
FROM THE NEW ENGLAND AREA. RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES POCKETS OF
LIGHT RAIN DRIFTING EAST ACROSS THE REGION AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE
EXITS TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST. FURTHER TO THE WEST, A LARGE
DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION OF THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES.
FOR TODAY, SHOWERS WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE MORNING, WITH
BREAKS OF SUNSHINE DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE FLOW
OF COOL MARITIME AIR BEGINS TO WEAKEN. REGARDLESS, THE COOL AIR
WILL STILL HOLD FOR ONE MORE DAY, WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE
LOW 70S TO THE LOW 80S. THIS WILL HELP TO STRICTLY LIMIT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS FOR TODAY, AND NO HAZARDOUS
WEATHER IS FORECASTED.
THE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD SUNDAY, CAUSING WINDFLOW ALOFT TO SWITCH FROM
THE NORTHWEST. WILL BE WATCHING FOR UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
RIDING AROUND THE DOME TO PASS ACROSS THE LOWER MID-ATLANTIC,
POTENTIALLY TRIGGERING ROUNDS OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. LATEST WEATHER FORECAST DATA HINTS AT ONE SUCH
DISTURBANCE AS EARLY AS SUNDAY EVENING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS,
THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS CURRENTLY LOW AS TO WHEN OR WHERE ANY
ASSOCIATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP, IF AT ALL.
KEY MESSAGE 2...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE DURING THE
EARLY HALF OF THE WORKWEEK ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES.
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT A DISTURBANCE CAUGHT WITHIN THE
NORTHWEST WIND FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF ENERGY
DURING LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH SOMETIME LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS
IS FORECASTED TO TRIGGER A ROUND OF ORGANIZED STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF BOTH DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN THAT
MAY RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. THE LOWER MID-ATLANTIC
IS OUTLOOKED FOR BOTH A 15% CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR
TUESDAY, AS WELL AS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.
THERE APPEARS TO BE TIMING DIFFERENCES WITHIN THE LATEST DATA,
WITH SOME DATA SUGGESTING THAT STRONG THUNDERSTORMS COULD ARRIVE
FROM THE NORTH LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE
FADING. THUNDERSTORMS MAY THEN REDEVELOP DURING TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SOMEWHERE ACROSS OUR AREA, INTRODUCING
ANOTHER SEVERE THREAT. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS THREAT
AS IT EVOLVES.
AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
NORTHEASTERLY WINDFLOW WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY MARITIME AIR FROM
THE NEW ENGLAND AREA THROUGH LATE MORNING, MAINTAINING LOW MVFR
TO IFR STRATUS CEILINGS. IN ADDITION, POCKETS OF LIGHT RAIN
WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE MORNING,
AND WILL EXIT THE AREA BY AROUND 16Z.
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, LATEST WEATHER DATA SUGGESTS
THAT CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE, MAKING FOR PATCHES OF LOW
CEILINGS INTERMIXED WITH AREAS WHERE CEILINGS HAVE SCATTERED TO
VFR CONDITIONS. LOW CONFIDENCE EXISTS AS TO WHERE THESE
TRANSITIONS WILL OCCUR, BUT MANY LOCATION ARE FORECASTED TO
HAVE SCATTERED TO VFR DURING THE 20Z TO 23Z TIMEFRAME. AREAS OF
FOG AND FEW POCKETS OF DRIZZLE ARE FORECASTED AREAWIDE FOR LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY AND MONDAY LOOK MOSTLY DRY, WITH LIGHT WNW WINDS WITH
THE OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 15 KTS. MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY,
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL, LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS, AND SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS. TUESDAY HAS THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS.
MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG/LOW STRATUS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE EACH
NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...NF
AVIATION...NF
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