087
FXUS61 KRNK 071117
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
617 AM EST SUN DEC 7 2025
SYNOPSIS
DRY AND MILD TODAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER
THE REGION. A DISTURBANCE WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY,
RESULTING IN RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW. A FEW INCHES OF SNOW
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. DRY AND
SEASONABLE CONDITIONS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, WITH SOME UPSLOPE
SHOWERS/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE AGAIN BY THURSDAY. A MUCH COLDER
AIRMASS ARRIVES LATE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND, RESULTING IN
VERY COLD TEMPERATURES OVER THE MID- ATLANTIC.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 100 AM EST SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) DENSE FREEZING FOG WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING, GRADUALLY
DECREASING AFTER SUNRISE.
2) MILD SUNDAY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
2) RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW EARLY MONDAY, WITH SNOW THEN CONTINUING
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW
POSSIBLE.
A BROAD TROUGH OVER MUCH OF THE CONUS TODAY, AMPLIFYING THIS
EVENING WITH AN UPPER SHORTWAVE PASSING OVERHEAD LATE TONIGHT
AND INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN RAIN QUICKLY CHANGING OVER
TO SNOW THROUGH MONDAY.
AREAS OF DENSE FREEZING FOG WILL CONTINUE OVER CENTRAL VIRGINIA
THROUGH DAYBREAK. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH
THIS MORNING, BUT WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC BY
LATE EVENING. A MORE POTENT HIGH WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST FROM
CANADA LATE TONIGHT AND THEN MOVE EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON
MONDAY. MEANWHILE, AN UPPER SHORTWAVE WITH AMPLIFY OVER THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY AND PIVOT ACROSS THE MID- ATLANTIC ON MONDAY.
AS THE WAVE PASSES OVERHEAD, HIGH PRESSURE WEDGES ALONG THE
APPALACHIANS AND INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL RESULT IN AN
AREA OF PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. WITH NO TRUE ARCTIC AIRMASS
ALREADY IN PLACE, BOUNDARY LAYER THERMALS WILL BE ON THE WARMER
SIDE. EXPECTING HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON RANGING FROM LOWER 40S IN
THE MOUNTAINS TO UPPER 40S IN THE EAST. TONIGHT, TEMPERATURES
COOL INTO THE MID/LOW 30S BY MIDNIGHT AND PRECIPITATION WILL
BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE REGION.
TAKING A LOOK AT VARIOUS FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM ACROSS THE
AREA, MOST SUPPORT AN INITIAL P-TYPE AS RAIN, WITH A WARM LAYER
IN THE LOWEST FEW THOUSAND FEET OF THE PROFILE. HOWEVER,
TEMPERATURES ALOFT FAVOR SNOW GROWTH WITH NO WARM NOSE
ADVERTISED, THUS HIGHER ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2500FT COULD CERTAINLY
START AS ALL SNOW. THOSE THAT DO START AS RAIN SHOULD GRADUALLY
TRANSITION TO SNOW AS THE COLUMN DYNAMICALLY COOLS FROM TOP
DOWN. LOCATIONS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE THE LAST TO CHANGE
FROM RAIN TO SNOW AND MAY NOT TRANSITION UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE ON
MONDAY.
LOWEST CONFIDENCE OF RAIN TURNING TO SNOW EXISTS EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS IN NORTH CAROLINA WHERE IT MAY TAKE THE LONGEST TO
SEE THE TRANSITION TO SNOW. THIS WILL CERTAINLY LIMIT SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. EVEN IF IT DOES
TRANSITION, SURFACE TEMPERATURES MAY MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO SEE
MUCH ACCUMULATION. MOUNTAIN EMPIRE OF VIRGINIA AND THE NEW RIVER
VALLEY WILL LIKELY START AS SNOW, THUS EXPECTING THE HIGHEST
AMOUNTS IN THOSE LOCATIONS. ROANOKE AND EAST TO
LYNCHBURG/DANVILLE WILL SEE A LONGER PERIOD OF RAIN BEFORE
CHANGING TO SNOW, SO TOTALS WILL BE A BIT LOWER THERE. STILL
UNCERTAIN HOW FAR NORTH THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION WILL EXTEND,
SO FOR NOW, HAVE KEPT SNOW AMOUNTS LIGHT ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
I64 CORRIDOR IN WEST VIRGINIA AND VIRGINIA.
WILL ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE FOR SNOW AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES, WITH
PERHAPS A FEW ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS FOR LOCATIONS ABOVE
3000FT.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 140 AM EST SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) DRY AND COOL ON MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.
2) CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT A FAST-MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BRING
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE, LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS
WILL FADE AWAY AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS SOUTHWARD OVER THE LOWER
MID-ATLANTIC ON ITS WAY TO SETTLE OVER THE SOUTHEAST REGION,
AND DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.
LATEST AVAILABLE WEATHER DATA CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS RIDGES FROM SOUTHEAST
WEST VIRGINIA INTO THE HIGH COUNTRY OF NORTH CAROLINA WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS TO SNOWFALL TOTALS WITH THIS EVENT, BUT EARLY
INDICATIONS ARE THAT TOTALS ALONG THE WEST-FACING RIDGES WILL BE
IN THE 1" TO LOCALLY 4" RANGE, AND LIKELY HIGHER IN WESTERN
GREENBRIER COUNTY, WHERE THE BEST FETCH OF MOISTURE FROM LAKE
MICHIGAN WILL BE LOCATED WITHIN OUR SERVICE AREA. LESSER TOTALS
ARE EXPECTED FURTHER EAST TO THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE, WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR FLURRIES REACHING AS FAR AS THE PARKWAY
THROUGH DAWN THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO BE COOL ENOUGH
FOR ANY SNOW TO STICK TO ROADWAY SURFACES IN SOME AREAS SOON
AFTER THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY NIGHT, MAKING FOR
THE POTENTIAL OF SLICK AND LOCALLY HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 150 AM EST SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH ON THURSDAY.
2) UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AS TO THE DEVELOPMENT AND IMPACTS OF A
POTENTIAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM EAST TO WEST
ON THURSDAY AS THE FLOW OF MOISTURE FROM THE NORTHWEST IS CUT
OFF BY CHANGING WIND DIRECTION ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AREA.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE POTENTIAL OF ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM THAT MAY BRING IMPACTFUL WEATHER ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
TO THE LOWER MID-ATLANTIC. AT THIS TIME, SOME OF THE LATEST
FORECAST DATA HAS BACKED AWAY FROM THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM, WHILE OTHER DATA SUGGEST AN ORGANIZED SYSTEM WILL MAKE
ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION, TRIGGERING ANOTHER ROUND OF WINTRY
CONDITIONS. WHILE THE LATEST OFFICIAL FORECAST DOES REFLECT A
MODERATE PROBABILITY OF THIS SYSTEM DEVELOPING, CONFIDENCE AS TO
THE TIMING AND INTENSITY OF WHAT MAY OCCUR IS LOW, AND WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANY IMPACTFUL WEATHER
SYSTEMS HEADING INTO THE END OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 615 AM EST SUNDAY...
AREAS OF FOG AND FREEZING FOG EXIST ACROSS CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND
NORTH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THIS MORNING. SOME PATCHY FREEZING
FOG HAS ALSO DEVELOPED ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AS WELL. THIS
HAS RESULTED IN IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS, WHICH SHOULD PERSIST
THROUGH ABOUT AND HOUR OR SO AFTER SUNRISE.
ANY FOG/FREEZING FOG EAST OF AN LYH-MTV-MWK LINE SHOULD CLEAR
UP BETWEEN 12-14Z. AFTER FOG DISSIPATED, EXPECTING WIDESPREAD
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT.
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS RAIN AND
SNOW BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION. BLF/LWB WILL BE THE FIRST
TO BE AFFECTED AND WILL LIKELY START AS ALL SNOW. A RAIN/SNOW
MIX LIKELY FOR BCB/LYH/ROA, BUT SHOULD EVENTUALLY TRANSITION TO
ALL SNOW. DAN SHOULD REMAIN ALL RAIN THROUGH THE END OF THIS TAF
PERIOD, BUT WILL LIKELY CHANGE TO SNOW LATE MONDAY MORNING. ONCE
PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO FALL, EXPECT IFR/LIFR TO PERSIST.
EXTENDED AVIATON OUTLOOK
VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN FOR TUESDAY, REMAINING THIS WAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. SUB-VFR CONDITIONS RETURN BY THURSDAY FOR THE
MOUNTAINS WITH UPSLOPE CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY
FOR VAZ007-009>020-022>024.
FREEZING FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VAZ035-
043>047-058-059.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY
FOR NCZ001-002-018.
FREEZING FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
NCZ003>006-019-020.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY
FOR WVZ042>044-507-508.
SYNOPSIS...BMG
NEAR TERM...BMG
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...NF
AVIATION...BMG
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