224
FXUS61 KRNK 140735
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
335 AM EDT SUN JUN 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
A POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF STRONG DAMAGING WINDS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
COOLER, MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES COMING THIS WEEK.
KEY MESSAGES
1) STORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, SOME MAY BE
STRONG TO SEVERE.
2) SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THIS COMING WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: STORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
SOME MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE.
A BROAD LARGE-SCALE TROUGH AND ACCOMPANYING BELT OF STRONG MIDLEVEL
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL MOVE EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT
LAKES/UPPER OH VALLEY REGION INTO THE NORTHEAST. AT THE SAME
TIME, AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD ACROSS THE
MID-ATLANTIC BY LATE THIS EVENING.
STILL HAVE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY ON STORM EVOLUTION AND COVERAGE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE GREATEST LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE
HOW MUCH MOISTURE CAN BE ADVECTED BACK NORTH INTO THE REGION. A
QUICK GLANCE AT EARLY MORNING OBSERVATIONS INDICATE DEEPER
MOISTURE REMAINS SOUTH OF THE FORECAST ALONG A STATIONARY
BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA. DEW POINTS THROUGHOUT
THE FORECAST AREA STILL IN THE MID/UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. AS
SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASES LATER TODAY, SHOULD SEE SOME BETTER
MOISTURE RETURN, BUT HI-RES GUIDANCE MOSTLY FAVORING AREAS EAST
OF THE MOUNTAINS. THIS ALSO SEEMS TO BE THE FAVORED LOCATION FOR
AFTERNOON/EVENING STORM DEVELOPMENT BASED PURELY ON
INSTABILITY/KINEMATIC OVERLAP. AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF BLUE
RIDGE WILL REMAIN THE MOST UNCERTAIN IN TERMS OF STORM
DEVELOPMENT AND COVERAGE DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR LIMITED
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP
WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG DAMAGING WINDS, BASED ON
MODEL SOUNDING GUIDANCE INDICATING INVERTED-V PROFILES AND DCAPE
VALUES POSSIBLY EXCEEDING 1000 J/KG.
KEY MESSAGE 2: SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THIS COMING
WEEK.
BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT TONIGHT, TEMPERATURES WILL
COOL AS A LARGE SCALE TROUGHING PATTERN SETS UP OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE CONUS. THIS WILL BRING SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES TO
THE REGION, ALONG WITH DRIER DEW POINTS WHICH WILL PROVIDE A
RELIEF FROM THE HUMIDITY THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR LOW TEMPERATURES IN UPPER 40S BY
TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. A SLIGHT WARM UP ON FRIDAY
OCCURS, BUT TEMPERATURES FALL BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR NEXT
WEEKEND.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
SHOULD BE MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY OUTSIDE OF ANY STORMS
THAT ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THROUGHOUT THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. COULD HAVE SOME LINGERING STRATUS ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS TONIGHT, MAINLY IMPACTING BLF/LWB. THIS COULD RESULT
IN SUB-VFR FOR THOSE MENTIONED TERMINALS AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE BY LATE MORNING WITH SOME
OCCASIONAL GUSTS NEARING 20KTS. SHOULD SEE WINDS RELAX AGAIN
TONIGHT.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK
EXPECTING MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDWEEK EXCEPT FOR
PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG EACH DAY.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BMG
AVIATION...BMG
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