067
FXUS61 KRNK 281749
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
149 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED AREA-WIDE THROUGH 8 PM
THIS EVENING.
ANOTHER SECOND, MORE POTENT ROUND OF STORMS IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT, WITH
A SECONDARY TORNADO AND HAIL THREAT.
KEY MESSAGES
KEY MESSAGE 1: ANOTHER ROUND OF MORE POTENT THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE
STRONG/SEVERE.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: ANOTHER ROUND OF MORE POTENT THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE
STRONG/SEVERE.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING AREA-
WIDE.
FIRST IMPULSE AND ASSOCIATED RAIN HAS LARGELY EXITED THE AREA. MUCH
OF THE PREVIOUS ACTIVITY WAS STRATIFORM WHILE MORE CELLULAR
DEVELOPMENT OCCURRED NEAR THE WESTERN CWA. SOME SEGMENTS OF STRONG
STORMS HAVE QUICKLY TRIGGERED ACROSS WV AND WILL ENTER OUR NW
SHORTLY. THIS WAS SUPPORTED EARLIER THIS MORNING WITH DECENT CAM
CONSENSUS AND SOME SCATTERING OF THE CLOUD DECK HAS OCCURRED
ALLOWING FOR DESTABILIZATION. THE UPPER NW FLOW LOOKS TO STILL
SUPPORT SOME SHORTWAVE IMPULSE INFLUENCING DYNAMIC FORCING FOR
CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT. SHEAR PARAMETERS LOOK QUITE FAVORABLE FOR
ORGANIZED STORM MODES ALONG WITH POSSIBLE SUPERCELLS INTERACTING
WITH LOW LEVEL HELICITY. STILL THINKING DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE
PRIMARY THREAT THEN LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES AS SECONDARY
THREATS.
AS FAR AS THE FLASH FLOODING THREAT, THERE WAS ALREADY SOME TRAINING
CELLS IN THE WEST EARLIER THAT PROMPTED AND VERIFIED WARNING
ISSUANCE. THIS COULD CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE FOR OTHER AREAS THAT
SEE SIMILAR CELL TRENDS WITH THE TRANSITION INTO THE AFTERNOON ROUND
OF CONVECTION. THE MORNING SOUNDING INDICATED ABOUT A 1.5 INCH PWAT
SO THESE STORMS SHOULD BE EFFICIENT PRECIP PRODUCERS.
BY LATER THIS EVENING ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE AND EXIT SOUTHWARD, THEN
MUCH OF THE REST OF THIS WEEK SHOULD BE DRY AND DOMINATED WITH AN
UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. THE NEXT MAIN CHANCE FOR PRECIP LOOKS
TO HOLD OFF UNTIL NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
WHILE SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS PUSHED
SOUTHEASTWARD, ANOTHER ROUND OF DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON THAT COULD HAVE STRONG TO SEVERE VRB GUSTS AND REDUCED
VSBYS. SOME CLEARING COULD OCCUR LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT, WHILE CIGS OF MVFR AND LOWER COULD FORM NEAR BLF TO LWB.
OUTSIDE OF ANY STORMS, WINDS THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD BE WEST TO SW 12-
14 KTS GUSTING TO THE LOW 20S, THEN SHIFT NW THIS EVENING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH ENHANCED GUSTS AGAIN DURING THE DAYTIME.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... GUSTY, POST FRONTAL WINDS ARE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY, BUT VFR. THE REST OF THE WEEK THROUGH FRIDAY WILL ALSO BE
MAINLY VFR, OUTSIDE OF ANY MORNING FOG. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASE AGAIN BY SATURDAY.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AB
AVIATION...AB/BMG
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