406
FXUS61 KRNK 061757
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
157 PM EDT SAT JUN 6 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AIR QUALITY ALERT FOR STOKES, ROCKINGHAM AND CASWELL COUNTIES IN
NORTH CAROLINA UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
AVIATION UPDATED.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EAST FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING LOOK LESS LIKELY TO BE SEVERE. HOWEVER A
LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUST MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST
STORMS.
OTHERWISE INCREASING HEAT NEXT WEEK WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
KEY MESSAGES
1: SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EAST FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING LOOK LESS LIKELY TO BE SEVERE. HOWEVER A
LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUST MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST
STORMS.
2: WARM TEMPERATURES EXPECTED, WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR THE PIEDMONT AT TIMES. A RETURN TO DAILY
CONVECTION AS WELL.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EAST
FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING LOOK LESS LIKELY TO BE
SEVERE. HOWEVER A LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUST MAY BE POSSIBLE
WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.
A COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE OH VALLEY
AND WESTWARD WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTH REACHING OUR DOORSTEP
LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN NORTH CENTRAL VA AND MAY
EDGE INTO EASTERN PARTS OF OUR FORECAST AREA AS DAYTIME HEATING
CONTRIBUTES TO MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND THE COLD FRONT NEARS.
AT THIS TIME THE LACK OF INSTABILITY WILL MEAN WE ARE MOSTLY
EXPECTING GARDEN VARIETY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, WITH A
MARGINAL CHANCE FOR A FEW STORMS TO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE.
LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST
CELLS.
KEY MESSAGE 2: WARM TEMPERATURES EXPECTED, WITH WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE PIEDMONT AT TIMES. A RETURN TO DAILY
CONVECTION AS WELL.
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, HIGH PRESSURE ATTEMPTS TO BUILD IN BEHIND
BUT IS QUICKLY SHIFTED EAST TUESDAY BY A WARM FRONTAL SYSTEM
MOVING OUT OF THE MIDWEST AND INTO THE TN VALLEY. THIS WILL ALSO
HERALD AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND A MORE COMPLETE BREAK DOWN
OF THE OMEGA BLOCK. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN MID
LEVEL ENERGY IN OUR VICINITY AND SUPPORT INCREASED CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. EXPECT DAILY CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEXT WEEK, ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS.
AS FAR AS SENSIBLE WEATHER, TODAY AND SUNDAY LOOK LIKE THE
WARMEST DAYS, WITH THE PIEDMONT CREEPING INTO THE LOW TO EVEN
MID 90S IN THE AFTERNOONS. ON MONDAY I LOWERED HIGHS A BIT AS
THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE THROUGH THE AREA. EVEN IF IT
IS NOT, CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING TOO
HOT. ALTHOUGH WE WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR TEMPERATURES IN
THE PIEDMONT, ANY RECORD-BREAKING HEAT WILL REMAIN OUTSIDE OF
OUR FORECAST AREA. THAT SAID, IT WILL SEEM QUITE HOT WITH
HUMIDITY ALSO GRADUALLY INCREASING THIS WEEK. WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY LOOK ESPECIALLY MUGGY.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD.
EXPECT AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES FOR ALL
TERMINALS. HIGH END MVFR OR LOW VFR MAY DEVELOP FOR LWB BY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
LIKEWISE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE, MAINLY AT LWB AND PERHAPS TO LYH BY 07/18Z (BUT MORE
LIKELY AFTER 18Z FOR LYH).
LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS THROUGH 18Z TOMORROW WITH THE OCCASIONAL GUST
TO 20 KNOTS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
SCATTERED CONVECTION TOMORROW NIGHT DIMINISHES AFTER 08/00Z,
POSSIBLY AFFECTING LWB, ROA, AND LYH BEFORE IT ENDS. ON MONDAY,
SOME ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY FOR BLF AND
BCB. AFTER THAT, EXPECT DAILY CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA IN THE
AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS AT ALL TERMINALS.
WINDS TAKE ON A MORE NORTHERLY COMPONENT IN THE MOUNTAINS TOMORROW
EVENING WITH INCREASING GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS. SUNDAY NIGHT WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. A MORE EASTERLY COMPONENT DEVELOPS TO
THE WINDS BY MONDAY WITH FEW GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NCZ004>006.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SH
AVIATION...SH
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