705
FXUS61 KRNK 042329
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
729 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS STARTING TO WIND DOWN AND WATCHES ARE BEING
DROPPED. STILL SEVERE STORM WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE VA PIEDMONT.
POPS UPDATED TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST RADAR TRENDS, AS HAD TOO LOW
OF POPS IN THE EAST.
HEAT HEADLINES CANCELLED AS TEMPS COOLED OFF DUE TO
SHOWERS/STORMS.
AVIATION UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
KEY MESSAGE 1: HOT CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH HEAT WAVE LIKELY ENDING
NEXT WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 2: MULTIPLE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
STARTING TODAY AND GOING INTO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...HOT CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH HEAT WAVE LIKELY ENDING
NEXT WEEK.
5H RIDGE TO START TO SLOWLY BREAK DOWN AND SUNDAY IS NOT LOOKING
AS HOT AS THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS, BUT STILL WELL ABOVE NORMAL,
PLUS STORMS SUNDAY WITH CLOUDS MAY KEEP TEMPS FROM GETTING AS
HOT.
WITH THIS UNCERTAINTY, HEAT HEADLINES ARE CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTED
TO BE ISSUED GIVEN THAT MUCH OF THE AREA LOOKS TO REMAIN BELOW
HEADLINE CRITERIA. WHILE THIS MAY BE THE CASE, FOLKS SHOULD
STILL BE VIGILANT WHILE HEADING OUTDOORS, AND CONTINUE TO STAY
HYDRATED AND TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS INDOORS TO COOL OFF.
HIGH TEMPERATURES CERTAINLY LOOK TO DROP BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA BY
MONDAY; HOWEVER, TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN HOT, WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 90S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT, AND UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S
ACROSS MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS. BY TUESDAY, TEMPERATURES RETURN TO
SEASONAL VALUES ACROSS THE REGION, WITH LOW 90S IN THE PIEDMONT, AND
LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS.
KEY MESSAGE 2: MULTIPLE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
GOING INTO NEXT WEEK.
CONVECTION STARTING TO WIND DOWN AS SUN LOWERS AND AIRMASS HAS
BEEN WORKED OVER. A FEW SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE ISOLATED AROUND
THROUGH THIS EVENING BUT SEVERE THREAT IS ABOUT OVER.
THE BREAKDOWN OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT HAS PERSISTED ACROSS THE
REGION OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP AS WIDESPREAD SUBSIDENCE IS NO
LONGER EXPECTED TO SUPPRESS ACTIVITY. MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL
ALSO START TO FREELY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION, WITH THE BLOCKING
RIDGE NOW DISPLACED SOUTH AND EAST. WITH PWATS LINGERING ABOVE 1.2-
1.7 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, DAILY SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MOST
DAYS, STORMS LOOK TO INITIATE OFF THE MOUNTAINS THANKS TO
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING. FROM THIS INITIATION POINT, STORMS WILL LIKELY
BLOW OUT IN ALL DIRECTIONS, AND LOOK TO BECOME OUTFLOW DOMINANT.
THIS TREND LOOKS TO CONTINUE SUNDAY, WITH STORM CHANCES
CONTINUING INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK.
GIVEN THE EXTREME HEAT OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS, AND DRY AIR THROUGH
THE MID LEVELS, DCAPE VALUES ARE QUITE HIGH AREAWIDE, WITH VALUES IN
THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE, AND SBCAPE VALUES IN THE 1500-2000 J/KG
RANGE. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP IN THIS TYPE OF ENVIRONMENT WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO SEVERE WINDS FROM MICROBURSTS SUNDAY. SEVERAL
MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES LOOK TO PUSH ACROSS THE REGION EACH DAY,
WHICH WILL BRING DAILY CHANCES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK
WEEK, WITH DECREASING CHANCES THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK
EXPECTED.
WHILE THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT MAY SLIGHTLY DECREASE EACH DAY,
THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING LOOKS TO INCREASE, WITH PWATS
INCREASING TO NEAR 2 INCHES BY MONDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW THUNDERSTORMS
TO BECOME VERY EFFICIENT, WITH WARM RAINFALL PROCESSES LIKELY
OCCURRING.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR FOG WHERE IT RAINED, BUT FOR
NOW LIMITING LIFR OR LOWER AT LWB/BCB. AMENDMENTS COULD OCCUR
AND LOW CIGS/STRATUS MAY BE AROUND IN THE MORNING IN THE 10-12Z
TIME FRAME.
ONCE FOG CLEARS SUNDAY MORNING BY 14Z, LOOK FOR CUMULUS TO
DEVELOP INTO SCATTERED STORMS. BEST CHANCES WILL BE IN THE
MOUNTAINS SO HAVE VCTS THERE FOR NOW. MAINLY VFR OUTSIDE ANY
STORMS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE TO INTO NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER, PRIMARY FLIGHT CATEGORY IS EXPECTED TO BE VFR WITH
TEMPO MVFR AND SOME IFR DUE TO THUNDERSTORMS AND/OR LATE NIGHT
MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGHS WERE TIED OR BROKEN AND ROANOKE/LYNCHBURG AND DANVILLE
TODAY. RECORDS DON'T LOOK TO BE IN JEOPARDY SUNDAY.
07/04
STATION HI MAX T HI MIN T
ROANOKE 99/2026 74/2024
LYNCHBURG 101/2026 76/1902
DANVILLE 103/2026 74/1999
BLUEFIELD 92/1957 69/2024
BLACKSBURG 94/1966 78/1949
07/05
STATION HI MAX T HI MIN T
ROANOKE 100/1999 76/2012
LYNCHBURG 98/2024 75/1900
DANVILLE 103/1919 76/1926
BLUEFIELD 93/1948 71/1969
BLACKSBURG 94/1930 69/1932
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...EB/WP
AVIATION...EB/WP
CLIMATE...SH
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