118
FXUS61 KRNK 240700
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
200 AM EST MON NOV 24 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS TODAY, WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM
NEARS FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY, BRINGING HIGHER
CHANCES OF RAIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A BIG COOLDOWN IS EXPECTED
FOR THANKSGIVING AND BEYOND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 200 AM EST MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) NICE DAY EXPECTED WITH LIGHT WINDS AND WARMER TEMPS FOR THE
MOUNTAINS.
2) CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES INCREASE BY TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER WV WILL BUILD EAST AND MOVE ALMOST
OVERHEAD TODAY, ALLOWING FOR LIGHTER WINDS. WEAK RIDGING WILL
ALSO BUILD IN ALOFT AND WILL HELP MEDIATE TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE AREA INTO THE MID 50S TO MID 60S. THIS MORNING, GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS HAVE RESULTED IN PATCHY DENSE FOG
FOR THE MOUNTAINS, WHERE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ARE A LITTLE
SMALLER THAN IN THE PIEDMONT. EXPECT FOG TO DISSIPATE SOON AFTER
SUNSET, BUT IT MAY BE DENSE IN MOUNTAIN AND RIVER VALLEYS.
BY TONIGHT, RIDGING WILL HAVE FLATTENED OUT AS SIGNIFICANT MID
TO UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MOVES IN FROM THE TN VALLEY AND CENTRAL
PLAINS. DEW POINTS WILL INCREASE AS WINDS PICK UP OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND TRANSPORT ATLANTIC MOISTURE NORTHWARD. WE WILL SEE
CLOUDS INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON, BECOMING OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. RAIN
CHANCES INCREASE FOR THE MOUNTAINS BEFORE DAYBREAK TUESDAY.
CONFIDENCE IN THE ABOVE WEATHER SCENARIO IS HIGH.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 200 AM EST MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) RAIN LIKELY LEADING UP TO THANKSGIVING DAY.
2) FRIGID AND VERY DRY AIR RETURN LATER THIS WEEK.
ACTIVE WEATHER PERIOD STILL LIKELY AS WE HEAD INTO THANKSGIVING.
A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING A WARM AND COLD FRONT
TO THE AREA AND A GOOD CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG AND
THE WARM FRONT WILL BRING IN WARM AND HUMID AIR FROM THE SOUTH.
CONDITIONS AT RIDGETOPS MAY BE A LITTLE GUSTY FROM THE SOUTHWEST
DUE TO A LOW LEVEL JET THAT PASSES THROUGH AS WELL. WEDNESDAY
WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY BEFORE A STRONGER COLD FRONT ARRIVES TO
BRING IN MUCH COLDER AND DRIER AIR. WEDNESDAY'S HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE IN THE LOWER TO MID-60S ALONG AND
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND IN THE LOWER 70S EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE. DEW POINTS WILL ALSO BE IN THE 50S FOR MOST OF THE REGION
AND POSSIBLY REACHING THE LOWER 60S IN THE PIEDMONT/FOOTHILLS.
THE RAIN THAT ACCOMPANIES THIS SYSTEM WILL BE SCATTERED AND IT
IS STILL DIFFICULT TO KNOW HOW MUCH RAIN WILL FOLLOW BETWEEN
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. ENSEMBLE MODELS SUGGEST THAT MOST OF THE
RAIN WILL BE IN ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE, ESPECIALLY IN NORTH
CAROLINA. AGAIN, MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE BASED
ON THE DIRECTION OF THE STORMS RELATIVE TO THE MOUNTAINS. EVEN
SO, THE ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE CONFIDENT THAT MOST OF THE AREA WILL
RECEIVE AT LEAST 0.25" OF RAIN WITH MORE SPOTTY LOCATIONS
RECEIVING 0.50-0.75."
A SECOND AND STRONGER COLD FRONT, CARRIED BY A POTENT MID-LEVEL
LOW, WILL PASS THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. COLDER AND DRIER AIR
FROM CANADA WILL THEN RUSH IN. WHILE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL
HAVE HIGHS IN THE 60S AND LOWER 70S, THURSDAY MORNING WILL HAVE
LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S. IN ADDITION, WINDS AFTER THE COLD
FRONT'S PASSAGE WILL INCREASE AND GUST TO 25-35 MPH ALONG AND
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE VERY COLD
THANKSGIVING MORNING AND MORE SO ON FRIDAY MORNING. IN FACT,
FRIDAY MORNING'S WIND CHILLS MAY BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ALONG
AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S TOWARDS
THE PIEDMONT/FOOTHILLS. DEW POINTS WILL COLLAPSE INTO THE TEENS
AND 20S, RAISING THE ISSUE OF WILDFIRES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
WHILE RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND WINDS SEND A SIGNAL FOR FIRE
WEATHER, THE RAIN IN THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WILL PLAY A
SIGNIFICANT FACTOR IN RISKS.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 200 AM EST MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.
2) ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WEATHER FOR THIS PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE MOSTLY
QUIET THANKS TO A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. THE COLD AND DRY AIR WILL REMAIN,
THOUGH WINDS WILL CALM DOWN. THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL HAVE SOME
LEFTOVER GUSTY WINDS TO RAISE THE CONCERN OF WILDFIRES, BUT THIS
WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH RAIN FALLS BEFORE THANKSGIVING.
OTHERWISE, ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM IS SET TO APPROACH THE REGION
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS WILL INCREASE AS
IT GETS CLOSER AND CLOUD COVER WILL BEGIN TO EXPAND AGAIN.
AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 200 AM EST MONDAY...
CONDITIONS ARE VFR AT ALL TERMINALS SO FAR THIS MORNING. BLF,
LWB, AND BCB MAY HAVE SOME PATCHY AND POSSIBLY MVFR OR LOWER
DENSE FOG THIS MORNING, BUT IT WILL DISSIPATE SOON AFTER
SUNRISE. WINDS WILL BE TRANSIENT AND EVENTUALLY BECOME ESE BY
MID MORNING THROUGH TODAY, BUT GUSTS SHOULD STAY BELOW 10-15
KNOTS. EXPECT INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS BY LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS A WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE WEST.
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, LIGHT RAIN AND MVFR CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE
AT BLF AFTER 06Z AND POSSIBLE REACH LWB AND BCB BY TUESDAY
MORNING.
CONFIDENCE IS THE ABOVE AVIATION SCENARIO IS HIGH.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK
RAIN AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO PUSH ESE THROUGH
TUESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY TO ALL TAF SITES. VFR CONDITIONS
RETURN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
SOUTHERLY WINDS ON TUESDAY VEER SW TUESDAY NIGHT, AND BECOME
WESTERLY AND GUSTY TO 15 TO 25 KTS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
WINDS REMAIN GUSTY TO 15 TO 25 KTS FRIDAY AND TURN NW.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...SH
NEAR TERM...SH
SHORT TERM...CG
LONG TERM...CG
AVIATION...SH
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