204
FXUS61 KRNK 201021
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
621 AM EDT SAT JUN 20 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION UPDATE. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST INTO NEXT
WEEK.
KEY MESSAGES
1) TRANQUIL WEATHER INTO SUNDAY.
2) THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RAMP UP MONDAY, BUT MID TO LATE NEXT
WEEK LOOKS MORE WIDELY SCATTERED FOR STORMS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: TRANQUIL WEATHER THIS WEEKEND.
THE WEEKEND OVERALL LOOKS DRY. THERE WILL BE SOME MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS TODAY, WITH SCATTERED CUMULUS IN THE AFTERNOON. A WEAKER
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY EVENING, AND SOME
OF THE HIGHER RES MODELS SHOW SPOTTY SHOWERS POPPIN IN THE
MOUNTAINS BUT APPEARS VERY LIMITED, SO KEPT POPS MAINLY 15
PERCENT OR LESS, EXCEPT 20ISH OVER GREENBRIER.
LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE FRONT SUNDAY AND STILL LOOKS LIKE
OUR AREA WILL BE ON THE DRY SIDE OF THINGS.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE SEASONABLY WARM WITH LOWER DEWPOINTS
AND NORTHWEST BREEZE. TEMPS WARM UP SUNDAY TO MORE TYPICAL JUNE
STANDARDS, WITH 90S IN THE PIEDMONT.
FYI... THE SUMMER SOLSTICE IS SUNDAY JUNE 21 AT 424 AM EDT.
KEY MESSAGE 2: STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE MONDAY, THE WIDELY
SCATTERED CONVECTION FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK, AND DRY FOR MOST.
A BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE MID-
ATLANTIC WILL EXITS MONDAY. WITHIN THIS ZONE, SEVERAL EMBEDDED
MID- LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ARE EXPECTED, THE STRONGEST OF
WHICH WILL MOVE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE MID-ATLANTIC DURING
THE DAY MONDAY. A WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL LIKELY BE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH. A FRONTAL ZONE WILL EXTEND
BETWEEN THESE 2 FEATURES AND ACT AS THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR STORM
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD ON MONDAY.
A MOIST AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO THE CAROLINAS AND MID-ATLANTIC ON
MONDAY AHEAD OF AN EASTWARD MOVING COLD FRONT. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
WILL BE WEAK WHICH WILL LIMIT OVERALL INSTABILITY, BUT MODERATE
SHEAR AND SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY, COMBINED WITH STEEP LOW-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT SOME DAMAGING WIND THREAT MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING.
AFTERWARDS, A QUASI-ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL BE IN
PLACE ACROSS THE COUNTRY.A LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED
ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS, COUPLED WITH SOME
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALOFT, WILL FUEL THE DEVELOPMENT OF MULTIPLE
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES BUY MOST OF THIS FALLS SOUTH OF OUR AREA.
STILL AT TIMES, WE WILL SEE WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING
SHOWERS/STORMS.
TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE CLOSE TO LATE JUNE STANDARDS.
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE TAF
PERIOD. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE WEST/NORTHWEST FOR MOST
THROUGH TODAY WITH GUSTS INCREASING AFTER 15 UTC AT SOME
TERMINALS INTO THE 15-20 KNOT RANGE. WINDS SUBSIDE BY 00Z/21.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO LATE SUNDAY. SHOWER AND
STORM CHANCES INCREASE ON MONDAY, WITH ASSOCIATED SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS PROBABLE AS THIS ACTIVITY PASSES OVER AIRPORTS. STILL
SOME SCATTERED STORM ACTIVITY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BUT MAINLY
VFR OUTSIDE ANY STORMS.
OTHER SUB-VFR POSSIBILITIES MAY BE SOME LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING
MOUNTAIN VALLEY/RIVER FOG SUNDAY MORNING AND AGAIN MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...PM/WP
AVIATION...EB/WP
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page