911
FXUS61 KRNK 260609
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
209 AM EDT SAT SEP 26 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION FORECASTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED.
REMOVED ISOLATED SHOWERS SUNDAY AND MONDAY, BUT ADDED SOME FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE EAST. ALL THESE ADJUSTMENTS ARE ASSOCIATED
WITH TIMING AND TRACK OF A COASTAL LOW OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) WE ARE STILL EXPECTING PROGRESSIVELY MILDER DAYS,
COOL NIGHTS, AND LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: WE ARE STILL EXPECTING PROGRESSIVELY MILDER DAYS,
COOL NIGHTS, AND LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY.
TWO MAIN FEATURES WILL KEEP US ON THE DRY SIDE THROUGH THE MIDDLE
PART OF NEXT WEEK. FIRST, A BROAD, DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE NORTH ALONG THE COAST OF THE MID-ATLATNIC REGION. PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN PRIMARILY EAST
AND NORTHEAST OF THE REGION. TIMING AND LOCATION HAS FLUCTUATED AS TO
WHEN EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA MAY BE GLANCED BY ASSOCIATED
SHOWERS. WHAT HAD BEEN A SUNDAY/MONDAY POTENTIAL, HAS TRANSITIONED
TO A SATURDAY NIGHT POTENTIAL. SECOND, AS THIS DEEP LOW MAKES
SLOW PROGRESSION NORTH TOWARDS AND INTO NEW ENGLAND, AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER
OUR REGION BY THE EARLY PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
CONTINUE THE TREND OF DRY WEATHER, BUT WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS
WILL COME TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL TREND MILDER. TEMPERATURES
WILL GRADUALLY TREND FROM VALUES AVERAGING AROUND OR A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THIS WEEKEND TO VALUES A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL BY THURSDAY.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE PREDOMINATE FLIGHT RULES
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE VALID TAF FORECAST TIME PERIOD,
CONCLUDING 06Z/2AM EDT SUNDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE SOME LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PATCHY FOG BETWEEN GENERALLY WITHIN AN AREA
BETWEEN ROUGHLY KBLF-KBCB-KLWB. ANY SUB-VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE RAPIDLY AFTER SUNRISE.
WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT FROM THE NORTH, OR NEAR CALM
OVERNIGHT. DURING THE COURSE OF SATURDAY, THAT SAME NORTH WIND WILL
BE PREVAILING CLOSER TO 10KTS WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE 15 TO 20KT
RANGE. WINDS WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AND PERHAPS BACK NORTHWEST SATURDAY
NIGHT.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE PREDOMINATE FLIGHT RULES CONDITION THROUGH MID-
WEEK. NIGHTLY CHANCES OF SOME RIVER/MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE, WITH ANY SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IMPROVING RAPIDLY AFTER
SUNRISE.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DS
AVIATION...DS
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