058
FXUS61 KRNK 132322
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
722 PM EDT SUN SEP 13 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDWEEK, WITH RAIN CHANCES LATE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDWEEK, WITH RAIN
CHANCES LATE WEEK.
A LARGER AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY
PROGRESSING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY. A COLD FRONT IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS CURRENTLY DRAPED
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AND NORTHERN OHIO, AND IS PROGGED TO PUSH
THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. GIVEN THE TIMING
OF THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT, MUCH OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY,
WITH ONLY LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE FOR UPSLOPE LOCATIONS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SE WEST VIRGINIA AND SW VIRGINIA. IN THE WAKE OF
THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO SETTLE
ACROSS PA AND NY, WHICH WILL LEAD TO DRYING ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA. WHILE TEMPERATURES LOOK TO CONTINUE TO REMAIN ELEVATED IN
THE LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS, AND MID TO UPPER 80S IN
THE PIEDMONT, DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES LOOK TO DROP INTO THE MID
50S TO LOW 60S ACROSS THE AREA, WHICH WILL MAKE FOR MUCH MORE
COMFORTABLE WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THIS
WEEK.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN ELEVATED AREAWIDE PRIMARILY BECAUSE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING LOOKS TO BUILD IN LATE MONDAY INTO THE REGION AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE EJECTS EAST OF THE
AREA. OVERALL, THE AREA LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY FOR MUCH OF THE
WEEK, WITH A GRADUAL RETURN OF SURFACE DEWPOINTS BACK INTO THE
LOW TO MID 60S BY FRIDAY. EMBEDDED UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCES ROUNDING THE TOP OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOOKS TO
BRING LOW RAIN CHANCES BACK INTO THE FORECAST BY THURSDAY FOR
PRIMARILY MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS. THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE LOOKS TO POSSIBLY BREAK DOWN BY NEXT WEEKEND, WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT RAIN CHANCES EXPECTED PRIOR TO THIS.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS PRESENT ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING. ONLY A FEW, LIGHT ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE FOOTHILLS
THIS AFTERNOON, BUT WERE VERY BRIEF. COULD SEE A FEW MORE
ISOLATED SHOWERS IN CENTRAL VA THROUGH THIS EVENING, BUT DOESN'T
LOOK LIKE ANY WILL IMPACT ANY OF THE AREA TERMINALS.
LOW STRATUS WILL BUILD AGAINST THE MOUNTAINS LATE TONIGHT AND
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS A FRONT CROSSES THE AREA. KBLF
AND KLWB WILL LIKELY SEE THE LOWEST CEILINGS, BELOW 1KFT, AND
KBCB SEEING MVFR CIGS. PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO DEVELOP IN THE
VALLEYS TONIGHT, MAINLY KLWB AND POSSIBLY KBLF. THIS SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY 14Z MONDAY MORNING WITH THE ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR
BEHIND THE FRONT. AFTER THAT, SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR FOR THE
TAF PERIOD.
WINDS WILL TURN NORTHERLY MONDAY BEHIND THE FRONT, BUT REMAIN 10
KNOTS OR LESS, WITH AN OCCASIONAL GUST TO 15 KNOTS OR SO OVER
THE MOUNTAINS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
MAINLY VFR EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK, OUTSIDE OF ANY LATE NIGHT
FOG AT THE USUAL PLACES LIKE LWB/BCB.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...EB
AVIATION...AS/EB
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