682
FXUS61 KRNK 281911
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
211 PM EST SUN DEC 28 2025
SYNOPSIS
A SHARP COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY ALONG WITH ITS
ASSOCIATED SCATTERED SHOWERS. VERY STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS WILL
FOLLOW THE FRONT, ALONG WITH RAPIDLY FALLING TEMPERATURES. GUSTY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY, AND NEAR SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE START OF THE NEW YEAR.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 125 PM EST SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
1. STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY WITH VERY GUSTY,
POTENTIALLY DAMAGING, WINDS AND RAPIDLY FALLING TEMPERATURES IN ITS
WAKE.
THIS AFTERNOON, A WARM FRONT WAS SLOWLY ENTERING THE REGION, HAVING
REACHED RICHLANDS, VA EARLIER TODAY TAKING THEIR TEMPERATURE TO 60
CURRENTLY. THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION STILL WAS MAINLY IN THE 40S,
WITH 50 AT BLUEFIELD, WV. CLOUDY SKIES WERE COMMON ACROSS THE
REGION, WITH SOME PATCHY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE AND LIGHT FOG OVER
PARTS OF SOUTHSIDE VIRGINIA AND NEIGHBORING SECTIONS OF THE
NORTH CAROLINA PIEDMONT.
OVERNIGHT, A STRONG COLD FRONT TO OUR WEST WILL PROGRESS EAST
TOWARDS THE REGION, AS THE WARM FRONT HEADS NORTHEAST ACROSS AND
THEN NORTH OF THE AREA. BECAUSE OF THIS FEATURE, TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ON THE MILD SIDE OVERNIGHT FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN SECTIONS
OF THE REGION AROUND DAYBREAK MONDAY, AND PROGRESS QUICKLY EAST OF
THE AREA BY MID-DAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THE
FRONT. COVERAGE WILL BE GREATEST ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS, AND
DECREASE IN COVERAGE AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE CREST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE.
ONCE THE FRONT PASSES A PARTICULAR PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA,
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL THROUGH THE DAY. SO, EXPECT A NON-DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE PATTERN TOMORROW, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES OCCURRING IN
THE MORNING. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS COMMON IN THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE, WITH SOME
GUSTS AT THE HIGHEST PEAKS WITHIN THE 50 TO 65 MPH RANGE. THIS
NORTHWEST FLOW MAY YIELD SOME LIGHT UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
WESTERN PORTIONS OF GREENBRIER COUNTY, WV BY THE LATE AFTERNOON.
A WIND ADVISORY AND A HIGH WIND WARNING HAS BEEN POSTED FOR PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE REGION TOMORROW. THESE
HEADLINES CONTINUE INTO THE TUESDAY PERIOD WHICH WILL BE
ADDRESSED IN THE NEXT SECTION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION.
CONFIDENCE IN THE ABOVE WEATHER SCENARIO IS HIGH.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 130 PM EST SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) WINDY CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO THE WEEK.
2) SINGLE DIGIT WIND CHILLS POSSIBLE TUESDAY MORNING.
THE WIND ADVISORIES AND HIGH WIND WARNINGS WILL CONTINUE INTO
TUESDAY AS A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
A WAVES OF LOW LEVEL JETS SEND GUSTS TO THE RIDGE TOPS. WHILE THE
WINDS WILL AFFECT AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE, HIGHER
ELEVATIONS WILL EXPERIENCE THE STRONGEST WINDS. OVERALL, SUSTAINED
WINDS AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL BE BETWEEN 30-40 MPH WITH GUSTS UP
TO 60 MPH. ELSEWHERE, SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15-25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO
50 MPH ARE EXPECTED. THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY MORNING, HOWEVER, THEY WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS DURING
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS BY FRIDAY
AND AT THAT POINT WINDS NOTICEABLY DECLINE.
COLDER AND DRIER AIR SLAMS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND DOMINATES THE
REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. WITH THE WIND, TUESDAY MORNING IS
FORECAST TO BE THE COLDEST WITH WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND IN THE TEENS TOWARDS THE EAST.
WIND CHILL VALUES AT WESTERN GREENBRIER AND OTHER HIGHER ELEVATIONS
MAY DROP AS LOW AS -10F. COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES WILL BE CONSIDERED
IN A FUTURE UPDATE. TEMPERATURES WILL SLIGHTLY UPTICK AS THE WEEK
PROGRESSES BUT TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ON THE COLDER SIDE WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 50S AND LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S.
LASTLY, ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY PROVIDE A CHANCE OF UPSLOPE SNOW BY
THURSDAY MORNING. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS MAY BE BETWEEN 0.5-2" BUT
THIS EVENT IS STILL A FEW DAYS AWAY AND CONFIDENCE ON THIS PART OF
THE FORECAST IS LOW.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 130 PM EST SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE AREA BY THE END OF THE
WEEK.
2) HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST AFTER WEEKEND.
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ON THE (RELATIVELY) QUIET AND COOLER
SIDE UNTIL THE WEEKEND WHEN ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY ARRIVE.
THE SIGNAL OF THIS SYSTEM IS WEAK AS THERE IS A LOT OF DISCREPANCIES
BETWEEN THE MODELS WHICH ONLY GETS WORSE AFTER THE WEEKEND. UNTIL
THEN, TEMPERATURES MAY NOT VARY MUCH WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND 40S
AND LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S. IF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DOES IMPACT
THE AREA, IT COULD PROVIDE ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION. GIVEN HOW
FAR OUT THE ARRIVAL TIME IS, THERE IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO KNOW
WHAT KIND OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AND HOW MUCH.
AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 115 PM EST SUNDAY...
FULL RANGE OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES EXIST ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. THE MAJORITY THOUGH ARE MVFR/IFR CIGS WITH POCKETS
OF LIFR CIGS AND LOW END VFR CIGS. VISIBILITIES FOR MOST AREAS
ARE VFR. AREAS BETWEEN ROUGHLY KDAN-KUKF ARE SEEING POCKETS OF
MVFR VSBYS THANKS TO SOME LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE AND LIGHT FOG. THIS
IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
A WARM FRONT HAD NOSED INTO THE FAR WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE
REGION, AND IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. A STRONG SOUTHWEST JET WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FRONT, ALLOW FOR MUCH STRONGER WINDS ALOFT AT THE SURFACE, AND
CHANGE OF DIRECTION RELATIVE TO THE SURFACE. THIS WILL YIELD A
PERIOD OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR ACROSS MUCH OF THE THE REGION
UNTIL A COLD FRONT ARRIVES MONDAY MORNING.
THIS COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION BY MID-DAY MONDAY. WITH IT
WILL COME SOME SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS, BUT PERHAPS MORE
IMPORTANTLY, VERY STRONG WESTERLY SURFACE WIND GUSTS. VALUES OF
20 TO 30 KTS WILL BE COMMON FOR TERMINALS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT
WITH 30 TO 40KTS COMMON FOR TERMINALS IN THE MOUNTAINS.
CEILINGS WILL TREND QUICKLY TO VFR FOR MOST LOCATIONS EAST OF
THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE FROM MID-DAY ONWARD. LINGERING SUB-
VFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS, BUT DECREASE IN
COVERAGE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK
VERY STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW WINDS AND WIND GUSTS WILL
CONTINUE MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT, DECREASING
THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY.
WHILE NOT AS STRONG AS THOSE EXPECTED MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT,
WINDS WILL REMAIN ON THE GUSTY SIDE FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
A DISTURBANCE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. HOWEVER, THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THIS FEATURE MAY BRING
SOME LIGHT SNOW AND SOME SUB-VFR CONDITIONS TO PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA AND NEIGHBORING SECTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
AS OF 150 PM EST SUNDAY...
WINDS WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT ON
MONDAY MORNING. GUST SPEEDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WILL BE COMMON ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT AND 30 TO 40 MPH WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.
LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS ARE EXPECTED. ALSO, BEHIND THE FRONT WILL COME
A SURGE OF DRIER AIR, WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR DECREASING RH VALUES
DURING THE DAY. ADDITIONALLY, COINCIDENT TO THE FRONT ITSELF,
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED, WITH THE BEST COVERAGE ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS, AND DECREASING COVERAGE OVER THE PIEDMONT.
A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR OUR NC COUNTIES OF STOKES,
ROCKINGHAM, AND CASWELL FROM NOON THROUGH 6PM ON MONDAY. FOR THIS
LOCATION, THERE WILL BE A NARROW WINDOW TOMORROW AFTERNOON FOR RH
VALUES TO TOUCH 25 PERCENT WHILE WINDS ARE GUSTING AT OR OVER 35
MPH. WITH THIS SAID, THERE WILL ALSO BE LIMITING FACTORS. THE LOWEST
RH VALUES OF THE DAY WILL ALSO COINCIDE WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING
THROUGH THE 40S. ADDITIONALLY, THIS SAME ARE MAY RECEIVE A BIT OF
SURFACE MOISTURE FROM THE MORNING SCATTERED SHOWERS.
WHILE NOT ON THE SAME MAGNITUDE AS MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT, WINDS WILL
REMAIN ON THE GUSTY SIDE THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. RHS WILL LIKELY
BE IN THE 20S PERCENT RANGE ACROSS THE VA/NC PIEDMONTS. WEATHER NO
ADDITIONAL WETTING WEATHER THROUGH MID-WEEK, FUELS WILL TREND DRIER
EACH DAY.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 7 AM MONDAY TO NOON EST TUESDAY FOR
VAZ011-015>020-022>024.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM MONDAY TO NOON EST TUESDAY FOR VAZ007-
009-010-012>014-032>035.
NC...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 7 AM MONDAY TO NOON EST TUESDAY FOR
NCZ001-002-018.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM MONDAY TO NOON EST TUESDAY FOR NCZ003-
019.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR NCZ004>006.
WV...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 7 AM MONDAY TO NOON EST TUESDAY FOR
WVZ508.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM MONDAY TO NOON EST TUESDAY FOR
WVZ042>044-507.
SYNOPSIS...DS
NEAR TERM...DS
SHORT TERM...CG
LONG TERM...CG
AVIATION...DS
FIRE WEATHER...DS
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