768
FXUS61 KRNK 172303
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
703 PM EDT SUN MAY 17 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
KEY MESSAGE 1: NEAR-RECORD HEAT POSSIBLE FOR THE EARLY PART OF
THE WEEK AS SUMMER ARRIVES. HEAT WAVE LASTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY,
WITH LATE WEEK RELIEF.
KEY MESSAGE 2: CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN A COLD FRONT PASSAGE
WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE REGION.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: NEAR-RECORD HEAT POSSIBLE FOR THE EARLY PART OF
THE WEEK AS SUMMER ARRIVES. HEAT WAVE LASTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY,
WITH LATE WEEK RELIEF.
A BERMUDA HIGH IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
WARM, SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS FOR THE FIRST HALF
OF THE WEEK. AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE HAS ALSO DEVELOPED, WHICH
WILL LIMIT CONVECTION AND CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO SOAR.
TEMPERATURES ARE NOTICEABLY WARMER TODAY, WITH WIDESPREAD 80S
ALONG/EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE ALREADY PRESENT AT LUNCHTIME.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON, WITH
HIGHS IN THE 80S FOR THE MOUNTAINS, AND LOW 90S IN THE PIEDMONT.
TEMPERATURES WERE LOWERED SLIGHTLY DUE TO THE LINGERING CLOUD
COVER EARLIER THIS MORNING. THIS LOWERING WILL LIKELY KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM REACHING RECORD HIGHS TODAY, THOUGH NOT BY
MUCH. MONDAY AND TUESDAY LOOK TO HAVE BETTER CHANCES OF SETTING
RECORD HIGHS, AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS, SLIGHTLY PUSHING HIGHS
INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S IN THE MOUNTAINS, AND MID 90S FOR THE
PIEDMONT. DESPITE THE HEAT, IT WILL REMAIN DRY, DUE TO THE UPPER
RIDGE. WHILE A STRAY STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS AFTERNOON
IN THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE, MONDAY LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY, WITH
TUESDAY ALSO LOOKING SIMILAR.
THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE THE FIRST HEAT WAVE OF THE YEAR, SO
BE SURE TO DRINK PLENTY OF WATER, LIMIT OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES, AND
WEAR LIGHT OR LOOSE FITTING CLOTHING TO HELP REDUCE THE RISK OF
HEAT ILLNESS. THE PIEDMONT COULD SEE HIGHS OF 90 DEGREES OR
HIGHER FOR FOUR STRAIGHT DAYS. THE LAST TIME THIS OCCURRED WAS
IN JULY OF LAST YEAR. WITH THE RECENT COOL WEATHER OVER THE PAST
WEEK OR SO, THE INTENSE HEAT MAY CATCH YOU OFF-GUARD.
TEMPERATURES THEN LOWER BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT, WITH 60S/70S
FOR HIGHS ON THURSDAY/FRIDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2: CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN A COLD FRONT PASSAGE
WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE REGION.
WHILE MUCH OF THE EARLY PORTION OF THE WORK WEEK WILL BE DRY
AND HOT, A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. WITH INCREASING
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS FRONT FORECAST, INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY
BE HIGH ENOUGH TO PRODUCE DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EACH DAY
STARTING WEDNESDAY. WHILE MUCH OF THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL
PROGRESS EAST WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, ENOUGH
SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 20-30 KNOTS LOOKS TO BE PRESENT ON
WEDNESDAY WHEN THE FRONT INITIALLY APPROACHES THE REGION. THIS
WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ORGANIZED MULTICELLULAR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AND LIKELY A MARGINAL SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT BY WEDNESDAY. WHILE THE MAIN FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOOKS TO BECOME DISSOCIATED FROM THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AS IT PROGRESSES EAST THROUGH THE NORTHEAST, THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS IT STRUGGLES TO
PENETRATE PAST AN ENTRENCHED BERMUDA SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM. THIS WILL LEAD TO MULTIPLE DAYS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT, AND DAILY SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY POSSIBLE, TEMPERATURES WILL DROP DOWN TO
NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR, WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S/80S EACH DAY AND LOWS IN THE 50S/60S EACH
NIGHT.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE
PERIOD; HOWEVER, SOME IFR TO LIFR VSBYS MAY IMPACT LWB TOWARDS
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY BETWEEN 05-12 UTC. THESE
RESTRICTIONS WOULD LIKELY COME FROM RIVER VALLEY FOG THAT MAY
DEVELOP DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. OUTSIDE OF THESE BRIEF
RESTRICTIONS AT LWB, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT
ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE WEATHER QUIET AND CONDITIONS VFR
THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK OUTSIDE OF ANY RIVER VALLEY
FOG THAT MAY DEVELOP. THIS RIVER VALLEY FOG MAY LEAD TO SOME
BRIEF PERIODS OF RESTRICTIONS DUE TO LOWERING VSBYS AT LWB. MORE
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FOR
WEDNESDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT. RAIN AND STORM
CHANCES AND CLOUD COVER LINGER THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH
THE SYSTEM POSSIBLY STALLING ACROSS THE AREA. THIS MAY LEAD TO
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
NOTE: BLUEFIELD (KBLF) ASOS IS CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING A
TECHNICAL OUTAGE DUE TO A MAJOR POWER SUPPLY FAILURE.
REPLACEMENT PARTS HAVE BEEN ORDERED. ETA OF REPAIR IS CURRENTLY
UNKNOWN. AMD NOT SKED IS BEING APPENDED TO ITS TAF.
CLIMATE
RECORD-BREAKING HEAT IS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK. HERE ARE THE
CURRENT RECORDS AND OUR CURRENT FORECAST.
MONDAY, MAY 18, 2026
STATION HI MAX T HI MIN T FORECAST HIGH
ROANOKE 94 IN 1962 69 IN 1996 92
LYNCHBURG 93 IN 1911 68 IN 1894 92
DANVILLE 93 IN 1974 69 IN 2015 94
BLUEFIELD 87 IN 1996 66 IN 2015 86
BLACKSBURG 88 IN 1911 61 IN 2018 89
TUESDAY, MAY 19, 2026
STATION HI MAX T HI MIN T FORECAST HIGH
ROANOKE 96 IN 1962 69 IN 2022 94
LYNCHBURG 93 IN 1962 66 IN 2022 93
DANVILLE 95 IN 1962 69 IN 1962 94
BLUEFIELD 89 IN 1911 66 IN 1977 86
BLACKSBURG 91 IN 1911 61 IN 1938 90
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...EB/JCB
AVIATION...EB/RCS
CLIMATE...RCS
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