569
FXUS61 KRNK 211044
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
644 AM EDT FRI AUG 21 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION FORECAST UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A DISTURBANCE WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND
FLASH FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
2) AFTER CONTINUED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY, DRIER
WEATHER RETURNS SUNDAY AND CONTINUES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: A DISTURBANCE WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AND FLASH FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
A SURFACE FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM TENNESSEE TO SOUTHEAST
VIRGINIA. ONGOING CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE ALONG AND JUST SOUTH
OF THIS BOUNDARY THROUGHOUT THIS MORNING. AN UPPER WAVE WILL
TRAVERSE THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WHICH WILL RESULT IN
WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN AND STORMS.
SOME DRIER AIR HAS FILTERED INTO THE REGION AND THE 00Z RAOB
INDICATED THIS WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER FALLING TO AROUND 1.25".
SOME NORTHWARD MOVEMENT AGAIN OF THE FRONT IS EXPECTED, WHICH
SHOULD HELP INCREASE MOISTURE AGAIN LATER TODAY. HOWEVER, THE
GREATEST MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE ALONG THE VA/NC BORDER AND INTO
CENTRAL VIRGINIA, WHICH IS WHERE THE BETTER COVERAGE OF STORMS
ARE EXPECTED. GREATEST THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL BE IN THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREA, WHICH IS WHERE A SIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL HAS BEEN ISSUED, BUT A LOCALIZED THREAT EXTENDS AS FAR
NORTH AS SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA AND INTO PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN SHENANDOAH VALLEY.
KEY MESSAGE 2: AFTER CONTINUED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
SATURDAY, DRIER WEATHER RETURNS SUNDAY AND CONTINUES INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT
PASSAGE. BEHIND THIS FRONT, A MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS
WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILD EAST ACROSS
THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST. COOLEST AIR ARRIVES ON SUNDAY
AND MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS AND LOW TO MID
80S EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. LOWS SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNING WILL
DROP INTO THE 50S WITH A FEW LOCATIONS POSSIBLY INTO THE LOW 50S
IN THE MOUNTAINS.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
MOSTLY VFR THIS MORNING WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING SOME DENSE FOG
FOR LWB/BLF. SHOULD SEE IMPROVEMENTS THERE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR
TWO. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AND WIDELY SCATTERED
AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS ARE EXPECTED. EXPECTING A LITTLE MORE
WIDESPREAD FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT, ALONG WITH LOWERING CIGS...SO
LESS VFR EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
VFR WILL RETURN ON SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS DRIER AIR
ARRIVES ACROSS THE LOWER MID-ATLANTIC. DAILY VALLEY FOG COULD
RESULT IN SUB-VFR AROUND SUNRISE EACH MORNING.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BMG
AVIATION...BMG
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page