957
FXUS61 KRNK 250622
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
222 AM EDT THU JUN 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE AVIATION FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED.
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL MAKE FOR A VERY WARM EARLY JULY.
THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS HEAT FOR EARLY JULY, BRIEFLY
INTERRUPTED BY A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT.
2) THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL TAKE PLACE
FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS HEAT FOR EARLY JULY,
BRIEFLY INTERRUPTED BY A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT.
THE SPRAWLING RIDGE OVER THE COUNTRY TILTS MORE NORTHEASTERLY
EARLY NEXT WEEK, AND WE WILL GRADUALLY COME UNDER HIGHER HEIGHTS
ALOFT, LEADING TO WARMER TEMPERATURES. THANKFULLY WE WILL NOT
BE CENTERED RIGHT UNDER THE RIDGE, AT LEAST INITIALLY, SO WE
WON'T GET QUITE AS WARM AS PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST.
ALSO, A BACKDOOR FRONT MAY MOVE INTO THE AREA, PROVIDING RELIEF
TO AT LEAST PART OF THE AREA. TYPICAL SUMMER CONVECTION AND
CLOUDS MAY ALSO MUDDY THINGS UP. LOWER RH VALUES ALIGN MAINLY
ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE COURTEOUSLY OF A BACKDOOR FRONT.
THAT SAID, MID TO UPPER 90S TO AS WARM AS 100 DEGREES ARE
FORECAST BY MID WEEK, ESPECIALLY FOR THE PIEDMONT AND URBAN
AREAS, WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER HEAT INDICES POSSIBLE. THE NBM HAS
BEEN BULLISH, SHOWING TEMPERATURES OF 102-103 DEGREES, BUT THE
HIGHEST NUMBERS ARE UNLIKELY GIVEN OUR PLACEMENT JUST OUTSIDE OF
THE RIDGE'S CENTER. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY LOOK TO BE THE
HOTTEST DAYS CURRENTLY, AND THIS IS WHEN 100-101 DEGREES WILL BE
POSSIBLE. PRECAUTIONS SHOULD BE TAKEN.
KEY MESSAGE 2: THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL TAKE PLACE FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
HIGH PRESSURE IS IN PLACE AND WILL KEEP THINGS DRY WEATHER-WISE
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY FRIDAY, AND EVEN THEN ONLY
EXPECTING LIMITED CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS AND
ALONG THE SPINE OF THE BLUE RIDGE. DURING THIS TIME, A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STRETCHED BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE IN NEW ENGLAND AND
ANOTHER LOW IN THE MIDWEST STALLS TO OUR NORTH IN THE OH VALLEY.
THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE A FOCUS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BE ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE FRONT. SEVERAL PERTURBATIONS IN THE MID LEVEL FLOW
MOVE OVERHEAD THE MID ATLANTIC, AND AS THE FRONT SAGS SOUTH OVER
THE WEEKEND, HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOME MORE LIKELY
ACROSS OUR ENTIRE REGION. ON SUNDAY, A SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE
TRAVELS SE TOWARDS THE MID ATLANTIC ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF A
BUILDING MID LEVEL RIDGE PARKED THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY. THIS
WILL HELP SHUNT THE FRONT INTO OUR AREA IN A BACKDOOR FASHION.
THIS SEEMS THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR ANY MCS THAT FORMS OVER THE
GREAT PLAINS/MIDWEST TO REACH US.
FORECAST INTEGRATED WATER VAPOR TRANSPORT SHOWS A CONTINUOUS
SLUG OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THIS TIME.
NCAR MEDIUM- RANGE AI CONVECTIVE OUTLOOKS INDICATE A POSSIBILITY
OF SEVERE WEATHER, ESPECIALLY WHEN DAYTIME HEATING COINCIDES
WITH PASSING MID LEVEL ENERGY. THETA-E LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 1000
AND 500MB INDICATE WET MICROBURSTS WILL BE THE MAIN CONVECTIVE
HAZARD. PWATS WILL HOVER BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2" AT TIMES, SO HEAVY
RAIN LEADING TO URBAN, SMALL STREAM, AND POSSIBLY FLASH FLOODING
IS ALSO A SIGNIFICANT CONCERN.
BUILDING RIDGING NEXT WEEK WILL LIMIT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS,
BUT WE STILL MAY SEE A FEW BUBBLE UP IN THE AFTERNOONS. A LOT
WILL DEPEND ON THE LOCATION OF THE FRONT.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
CONDITIONS SHOULD STAY GENERALLY VFR THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT WITH
THE ONLY EXCEPTION BEING THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG AT LWB BY
EARLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER, INCREASING CIRRUS CLOUDS MAY
PREVENT ANY SIGNIFICANT FOG DEVELOPMENT. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
IN CONTROL FOR TODAY WITH A LIGHT SOUTHWEST BREEZE. SCATTERED
CUMULUS CLOUDS SHOULD DEVELOP WITH HEATING BY THIS AFTERNOON.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
A COLD FRONT SHOULD GRADUALLY APPROACH THE APPALACHIAN
MOUNTAINS LATER DURING FRIDAY TO BRING AN INCREASING CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS SLOW-MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
COULD PROVIDE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGHOUT THE UPCOMING WEEKEND TO TRIGGER POSSIBLE IFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS. WINDS COULD GUST UP TO 20 KNOTS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD POSSIBLY DEPART BY MONDAY
TO PROVIDE DRIER WEATHER AND A MORE NOTABLE RETURN TO VFR.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SH
AVIATION...PW
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