353
FXUS61 KRNK 091050
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
650 AM EDT WED SEP 9 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION FORECASTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
1) ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
2) PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE TOMORROW AND CONTINUE
THROUGH AT LEAST THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA HEADING INTO THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE REGION ON THURSDAY, BUT THE TREND OF THIS
FEATURE HAS BEEN ONE OF A SLOWING FEATURE. THIS WILL HELP ALLOW FOR
A CONTINUATION OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA.
EVEN WHEN THE FRONT ARRIVES ON FRIDAY, THE COOLING IT BRINGS WILL BE
MINIMAL WITH VALUES STILL STAYING ABOVE NORMAL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WE HAVE AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGRESSING THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES TO THANK FOR THIS. THE FRIDAY COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
RETURN NORTH AS A WARM FRONT AND CROSS THE REGION DURING THE
WEEKEND.
KEY MESSAGE 2: PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE TOMORROW AND CONTINUE
THROUGH AT LEAST THE WEEKEND.
WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING OUR NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY, LOOK FOR A
RETURN OF SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS MAINLY OVER PARTS OF SOUTHEAST WV
AND NEIGHBORING SECTIONS OF SOUTHWEST VA. AS THURSDAY NIGHT
ADVANCES INTO FRIDAY, LOOK FOR COVERAGE TO IMPROVE ACROSS THE REGION
AS THE COLD FRONT ENTERS, AND THEN CROSSES THE REGION. THIS SAME
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO RETURN NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON SATURDAY THANKS
TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS
PROGRESSION OF FRONTS WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS IN THE
FORECAST. HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL KEEP THE POTENTIAL
FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ON THE HIGH SIDE, ESPECIALLY ANY LOCATION
WHICH CAN EXPERIENCE TRAINING OF SHOWERS/STORMS. LITTLE CHANCE IN
OUR WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS YET ANOTHER
UPSTREAM SYSTEM TAKES AIM ON THE REGION.
AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. THE
EXCEPTION ARE THE MOUNTAIN RIVER VALLEYS WHERE FOG AND LOW
STRATUS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER NIGHT. CONDITIONS SHOULD RAPIDLY
IMPROVE TO VFR FOR ALL LOCATIONS BY 14Z/10AM EDT.
VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY, BUT RETURN IN PATCHY AREAS
LATER TONIGHT AGAIN FOR RIVER MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR APPROACHING 10KTS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST TODAY. LATE IN THE VALID TAF PERIOD, SOME LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR DAYBREAK THURSDAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURN TO THE FORECAST ON THURSDAY, AND CONTINUE
INTO THE WEEKEND. THE PROBABILITY OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THIS PERIOD, ESPECIALLY STARTING FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT ONCE THE AREA IS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT,
AND LOW LEVEL WINDS MAY TAKE ON MORE OF AN EASTERLY COMPONENT.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DS
AVIATION...DS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page