276
FXUS61 KRNK 191744
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
144 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION UPDATED FOR 18 UTC.
FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF SE WEST VIRGINIA
AND A FREEZE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR WESTERN GREENBRIER
COUNTY FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT SUNDAY FROM 6AM TIL 4PM FOR THE
SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE FROM FLOYD COUNTY, VA TO WATAUGA COUNTY,
NC, FOR GUSTS 45-50 MPH.
A FREEZE WATCH IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA,
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA, AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF NORTH
CAROLINA MONDAY NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGES
1. STRONG POST-FRONTAL WINDS WEAKEN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
2. SOME FREEZING TEMPS TONIGHT IN THE GREENBRIER MOUNTAINS,
WITH ISOLATED SPOTS OF FROST IN SOUTHEAST WV. BETTER COVERAGE OF
SUB-FREEZING TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT OVER MUCH OF THE AREA.
3. WARMING UP THROUGH THE WEEK WITH NOT MUCH SHOWER CHANCES
UNTIL NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: WINDS START TO DIMINISH THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
NOT GETTING AS MANY GUSTS OVER 40 MPH AS EARLIER, AND WILL
LIKELY SEE WINDS ABATE AFTER 4PM, AND GUSTS DROP OFF MORESO AT
SUNSET. WILL LET THE WIND ADVISORY EXPIRE AT 4PM.
KEY MESSAGE 2: SOME FREEZE/FROST LATE TONIGHT IN WV. BETTER
COVERAGE OF SUB-FREEZING TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT FOR MOST OF THE
AREA.
WINDS ARE GOING TO STAY ELEVATED ENOUGH TONIGHT DESPITE THE COLD
ADVECTION TO LIMIT FROST FORMATION. STILL SUB-FREEZING TEMPS ARE
LIKELY IN WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY. ALTHOUGH AM NOT SEEING MUCH
FROST POTENTIAL GIVEN WINDS, PLUS A DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS
WITH CLOUDS AND A A FEW SNOWFLAKES, WILL NOT CANCEL THE FROST
ADVISORY. A FEW SHELTERED SPOTS ARE DAWN COULD GET SOME FROST.
WITH THE HIGH OVERHEAD MONDAY NIGHT, MODELS ARE STILL A LITTLE
ON THE MILDER SIDE, BUT GIVEN LIGHT/CALM WINDS AND VERY DRY
AIRMASS, WENT A FEW DEGREES COLDER SO MUCH OF VA, SOUTHEAST WV
AND THE MOUNTAINS OF NC SHOULD REACH AT OR BELOW FREEZING LATE
MONDAY NIGHT. A FROST ALSO POSSIBLE, THOUGH AIRMASS IS DRY FOR
THE NC PIEDMONT.
KEY MESSAGE 3. WARMING UP THROUGH THE WEEK WITH NOT MUCH SHOWER
CHANCES UNTIL NEXT WEEKEND.
UPPER TROUGH LIFTS OUT MIDWEEK WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO ABOVE
NORMAL, BUT NOT LOOKING QUITE AS WARM AS LAST WEEK, BUT STILL
HIGHS IN THE 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS AND LOWER TO MID 80S IN THE
PIEDMONT ARE GOING TO BE 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
SHOULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS LATE IN THE WEEK WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW AND SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE, THOUGH WILL HAVE TO WAIT TIL
A FRONT APPROACHES THIS WEEKEND FOR A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
SHOULD BE VFR FOR MOST THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT COULD SEE SOME
HIGH END MVFR CIGS AT BLF, POSSIBLY LWB WITH A DISTURBANCE LATE
TONIGHT. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL DIMINISH THIS
EVENING, THEN PICK UP AGAIN, BUT NOT AS STRONG BY LATE MONDAY
MORNING.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK. EXCEPTION WOULD BE A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS LATE WEEK IN THE MOUNTAINS.
FIRE WEATHER
AREAS ALONG/WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE RECEIVED A WETTING RAIN LAST
NIGHT AND THIS MORNING. THE PIEDMONT HAD LITTLE OR NONE. STRONG
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD DRY FUELS EFFICIENTLY THIS
AFTERNOON, THOUGH TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN TODAY WITH RHS
DROPPING TO 15 TO 30 PERCENT.
MONDAY WILL BE DRIER AS RH VALUES DROP TO 10 TO 20 PERCENT EAST
OF THE MOUNTAINS AND 20 TO 25 PERCENT IN THE MOUNTAINS.
THE REST OF THE WEEK APPEARS MOSTLY DRY, WITH TEMPS WARMING UP
AFTER TUESDAY BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES. NORTHWEST WINDS 10-15
MPH, GUSTING 20-25 MPH WILL ENHANCE THE RISK OF WILDFIRE
POTENTIAL.
WILL BE FAIRLY DRY THE REST OF THE WEEK, WITH ANY SHOWERS BEING
WIDELY SCATTERED IN THE MOUNTAINS. NEXT "BETTER" COVERAGE MAY BE
NEXT WEEKEND WITH A FRONT.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR VAZ015>017.
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
FOR VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059.
NC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NCZ001-002-018.
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
FOR NCZ001-002-018.
WV...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
FOR WVZ042>044-507-508.
FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT MONDAY FOR WVZ042>044-
507.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT MONDAY FOR WVZ508.
DISCUSSION...AS/EB/WP
AVIATION...EB/WP
FIRE WEATHER...EB/PM/WP
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