972
FXUS61 KRNK 080224
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1024 PM EDT TUE JUL 7 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
FLOOD WATCH DROPPED AS TORRENTIAL RAINS ARE NOT EXPECTED IN THE
WATCH AREA THE REST OF THE EVENING, OUTSIDE A STRAY SHOWER OR
STORM.
KEY MESSAGES
KEY MESSAGE 1: SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND FLASH
FLOODING ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.
KEY MESSAGE 2: DAILY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: A FEW HEAVIER STORMS COULD BRING GUSTY WINDS AND
LOCALIZED FLOODING EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING BEFORE
DISSIPATING.
HIGHER CAPES (3000 J/KG) EARLIER IN THE PIEDMONT LEADING TO
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS, WITH PLENTY OF CGS. AIRMASS IS HIGHLY
MOIST WITH PWATS OVER 2 INCHES IN THE PIEDMONT HENCE THE FLOOD
WATCH THROUGH MIDNIGHT, BUT RADAR TRENDS LOOKING LESS LIKELY FOR
ANYTHING MORE THAN ISOLATED FLOODING ISSUES FOR NOW.
KEY MESSAGE 2: DAILY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN
THE FORECAST THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC TO THE
OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS AND ROUGHLY WESTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS FRONT WILL BE THE
FOCUS FOR DAILY THREAT OF SHOWERS/STORMS WITH GREATEST COVERAGE
FROM 1400 TO 2200 EDT, BASICALLY ALIGNED WITH THE PEAK HEATING
OF THE DAY. WIND FIELDS ALOFT ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN WEAK AND
WITH THE FRONT ESSENTIALLY STALLING OVER THE AREA, WILL HAVE TO
CONTEND WITH A MULTI-DAY THREAT FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN AND
MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS.
A MORE BONAFIDE SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT
LAKES EARLY FRIDAY WILL TRIGGER INCREASED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, WITH THE FRONT PASSING SOUTH
OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR NORMAL
FOR APPROACHING THE MIDDLE OF JULY, AND WIDESPREAD EXCESSIVE
HEAT IS NOT FORECAST TO RETURN AT LEAST FOR THIS PART OF THE
COUNTRY. THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WHICH BROUGHT THE HEAT PRIOR
TO THE 4TH OF JULY IS SHIFTING WEST OVER THE ROCKIES.
AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
LOOK FOR MAINLY VFR THROUGH THIS EVENING, OUTSIDE ANY
SHOWER/STORMS THAT MAY BRING SUB-VFR CIGS/VSBYS. LOOKS LIKE
SHOWERS FADE BY LATE EVENING BUT THINKING FLOW TURNING NORTHEAST
WILL BRING LOWER CIGS AND SOME FOG TO AREA, ESPECIALLY NORTHWEST
OF A LINE FROM LWB-DAN. AM LEANING TOWARD LOWER CIGS IN THE
MOUNTAINS, THEN 1-3KFT AT ROA/LYH/DAN.
IN GENERAL EXPECT LIGHT WINDS (UNDER 5KTS).
SHOULD SEE GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BY 14Z-15Z WEDNESDAY.
SCATTERED STORMS WILL AGAIN FIRE UP IN THE 17-19Z TIME FRAME,
BUT BEST COVERAGE WILL BE AFTER 19Z. NOT ENOUGH TO HAVE IN TAFS
EXCEPT VCTS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK
SCATTERED, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECASTED FOR EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HEAVY DOWNPOURS,
GUSTY WINDS, AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE ALL POSSIBLE IN ANY OF
THE STRONGER STORMS. PATCHY FOG IS ALSO LIKELY DURING THE
OVERNIGHT PERIODS, ESPECIALLY WHERE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
OCCURRED DURING THE EVENING BEFORE. ANY FOG WILL BURN OFF
QUICKLY AFTER 13Z DAILY.
POTENTIALLY DRIER EARLY NEXT WEEK.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...PM/WP
AVIATION...PM/WP
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