577
FXUS61 KRNK 182321
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
721 PM EDT MON MAY 18 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
KEEPING ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN SLOPES (TAZEWELL TO WESTERN
GREENBRIER) THROUGH 8PM. CLEAR AND CALM FOR THE REST OF THE
NIGHT.
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED.
CLIMATE SECTION UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
KEY MESSAGE 1: THE HEAT WAVE CONTINUES WITH RECORD-BREAKING
HEAT POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE COOLER WEATHER RETURNS
LATE WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 2: MULTIPLE OPPORTUNITIES FOR PRECIPITATION
FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1:THE HEAT WAVE CONTINUES WITH RECORD-BREAKING HEAT
POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE COOLER WEATHER RETURNS LATE
WEEK.
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY DUE TO A LARGE BERMUDA HIGH IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
ALTHOUGH MOISTURE AT THE SURFACE HAS INCREASED DUE TO THIS FLOW,
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE HAS ALSO STRENGTHENED AND IS SUPPRESSING
CONVECTION DUE TO THE DRIER AIR ALOFT. THIS SYNOPTIC SETUP WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR, WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S FOR THE MOUNTAINS, AND LOW
TO MID 90S FOR THE PIEDMONT TODAY AND TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE
ALREADY IN THE LOW 90S IN PARTS OF THE PIEDMONT JUST AFTER
MIDDAY. THEREFORE, SOME RECORD HIGHS MAY BE IN JEOPARDY TODAY
AND TOMORROW. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY,
WHICH WILL KEEP HIGHS A FEW DEGREES COOLER IN THE MOUNTAINS,
THOUGH STILL IN THE 80S AS SHOWERS/STORMS MOVE IN LATE IN THE
DAY. HOWEVER, AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE PIEDMONT, HIGHS WILL
LIKELY REACH THE MID 90S.
ALTHOUGH HEAT INDICES WILL NOT BE DANGEROUSLY HIGH DURING THIS
HEAT WAVE, IT HAS BEEN NEARLY A YEAR SINCE TEMPERATURES HAVE
BEEN OVER 90 DEGREES FOR SEVERAL DAYS IN A ROW. STAY HYDRATED,
LIMIT OUTDOOR ACTIVITY, AND WEAR LIGHT AND LOOSE FITTED CLOTHING
TO HELP REDUCE THE RISK OF HEAT ILLNESSES. RELIEF FROM THE HEAT
ARRIVES BY THURSDAY, ONCE THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA,
WITH MUCH COOLER WEATHER AND HIGHS IN THE 60S/70S THE REMAINDER
OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
KEY MESSAGE 2: MULTIPLE OPPORTUNITIES FOR PRECIPITATION
FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY.
A BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO DEVELOP AND REMAIN QUASI-
STATIONARY ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL MAINTAIN SOUTHERLY FLOW AND A SUMMER LIKE
PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION AS MOISTURE IS ADVECTED NORTH
INTO THE SOUTHEAST FROM THE GULF AND ATLANTIC. AS MOISTURE
FINALLY MOVES INTO THE REGION, PWATS GENERALLY LOOK TO RECOVER
INTO THE 1.0-1.5 INCH RANGE AREAWIDE. WITH ONGOING DROUGHT
CONDITIONS, THESE CONDITIONS BODE WELL FOR MULTIPLE RAIN
OPPORTUNITIES OVER THE NEXT WEEK OR SO STARTING WEDNESDAY.
ON WEDNESDAY, A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE REGION
FROM THE NORTHWEST AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDE EAST THROUGH SOUTHERN QUEBEC
AND ONTARIO. THE LAGGING COLD FRONT LOOKS TO PROVIDE SOME
FORCING FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY, WITH MODEST DEEP
LAYER SHEAR IN THE 20-30 KNOT RANGE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
AMOUNT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR COMBINED WITH INSTABILITY VALUES IN
THE 500-1000 J/KG WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME MULTICELLULAR
CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS THE REGION. WITH THESE SHEAR AND INSTABILITY VALUES, SOME
HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS CAN'T BE RULED OUT ACROSS THE
AREA. WITH THIS POTENTIAL, SPC HAS INTRODUCED A MARGINAL RISK
(LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
VIRGINIA ON WEDNESDAY.
BY THURSDAY, THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO STALL ACROSS THE
REGION PROVIDING SOME FORCING FOR ASCENT ACROSS THE REGION. THE
PRESENCE OF MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES PROGRESSING EAST ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY COMBINED WITH A SOUTHWARD SAGGING 250MB JET
STREAK LOOKS TO INCREASE DEEP LAYER SHEAR SLIGHTLY ON THURSDAY.
THIS MAY LEAD TO ANOTHER DAY WITH POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER
CHANCES AS INSTABILITY LOOKS TO REMAIN ELEVATED AS WELL.
BEYOND THURSDAY, THE AFOREMENTIONED BERMUDA HIGH LOOKS TO
CONTINUE TO REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC, WHICH WILL KEEP
THE MOIST AIRMASS OVER THE SOUTHEAST. MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES
LOOK TO CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST OVER THE REGION, WHICH WILL KEEP
RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
INTO THE EARLY PORTION OF NEXT WEEK, LIKELY BRINGING MUCH NEEDED
AND BENEFICIAL RAINFALL TO THE AREA.
WHILE ITS HARD TO IMAGINE CURRENTLY WITH THE DROUGHT, IF THE
AREA DOES RECEIVE REPEATED HEAVY RAINFALL, DURING THIS PERIOD,
THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT MAY INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA; HOWEVER,
THESE CHANCES WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED THROUGH THE WEEK AS
THESE SYSTEMS MOVE OVER THE REGION.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH
THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN OUT OF THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT, THEN INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH WIND GUSTING
AROUND 15-20 KNOTS AT ALL TERMINALS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE WEATHER QUIET AND CONDITIONS VFR
THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED STARTING WEDNESDAY WITH THE
APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT. RAIN AND STORM CHANCES AND CLOUD
COVER LINGER THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH THE SYSTEM
POSSIBLY STALLING ACROSS THE AREA. THIS MAY LEAD TO SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
NOTE: BLUEFIELD (KBLF) ASOS IS CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING A
TECHNICAL OUTAGE DUE TO A MAJOR POWER SUPPLY FAILURE.
REPLACEMENT PARTS HAVE BEEN ORDERED. ETA OF REPAIR IS CURRENTLY
UNKNOWN. AMD NOT SKED IS BEING APPENDED TO ITS TAF.
CLIMATE
RECORD-BREAKING HEAT IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY. HERE ARE THE CURRENT
RECORDS AND OUR CURRENT FORECAST.
TUESDAY, MAY 19, 2026
STATION HI MAX T HI MIN T FORECAST HIGH
ROANOKE 96 IN 1962 69 IN 2022 93
LYNCHBURG 93 IN 1962 66 IN 2022 94
DANVILLE 95 IN 1962 69 IN 1962 95
BLUEFIELD 89 IN 1911 66 IN 1977 86
BLACKSBURG 91 IN 1911 61 IN 1938 88
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...EB/JCB/RCS
AVIATION...EB/RCS
CLIMATE...RCS
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