788
FXUS61 KRNK 180639
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
239 AM EDT WED MAR 18 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE AVIATION FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED. OTHERWISE, NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY.
2) WARMING TREND THURSDAY INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
3) CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION MINIMAL UNTIL
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY.
COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
RESULTING IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...READINGS AVERAGING 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
KEY MESSAGE 2: WARMING TREND AFTER WEDNESDAY.
AMPLITUDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FLATTENS WITH TIME WITH
UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE ZONAL BY THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL
RESULT IN GRADUALLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES WITH READINGS NEAR
NORMAL THURSDAY...5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY, 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL SATURDAY AND 15 DEGREES (POSSIBLY AS MUCH AS 20
DEGREES) ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY. THAT SAID, IT IS ROLLER COASTER
SEASON (SPRING) SO WE TAKE A NOSE DIVE AGAIN MONDAY WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.
KEY MESSAGE 3: CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION MINIMAL
UNTIL PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT MONDAY.
FORECAST AREA WILL STILL BE SUBJECT TO NORTHWEST FLOW
SHORTWAVES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, ONE COMING THROUGH TODAY,
ANOTHER THURSDAY EVENING, AND YET ANOTHER FRIDAY EVENING, ALL
SPREAD OUT ABOUT 24 HOURS APART. BIGGEST BY-PRODUCT FROM THESE
WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW SHORT WAVES WILL BE CLOUD COVER, BUT
YIELDING LITTLE OR NO PRECIP. CAN'T RULE OUT SOME FLURRIES OR
SPRINKLES, BUT THINK MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL BE IN THE FORM OF
VIRGA...PRECIPITATION THAT EVAPORATES BEFORE REACHING THE
GROUND WITH PROBABILITY OF GETTING ANYTHING MEASURABLE (0.01)
LESS THAN 15 PERCENT.
LATE IN THE WEEKEND, A BONAFIDE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE NORTH, PROVIDING A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM SUNDAY EVENING AND UP UNTIL ITS PASSAGE ON MONDAY.
THIS WILL BE THE NEXT GOOD CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL ALBEIT
DEPENDENT ON HOW FAST THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH, AND WHETHER IT
STALLS OR LINGERS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK...MODELS
DIVERGING ON ITS PROGRESSIVENESS.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
MVFR CONDITIONS MAY CONTINUE AT BLF AND LWB FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE NIGHT, BUT VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN LATER TODAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE TAKES CONTROL ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS.
SOME BROKEN CIRRUS WILL ARRIVE EARLY THIS MORNING AND LINGER
THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS, WHICH IS BEING SUPPLIED BY AN
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND MOISTURE ALOFT. THE WIND SHOULD
SHIFT TOWARDS THE SOUTH DURING THE LATE MORNING. CEILINGS WILL
LOWER BY THIS EVENING AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CROSSES OVERHEAD, AND THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CONDITIONS
AT BLF AND LWB DURING EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
CLOUDS SHOULD LINGER INTO THURSDAY WITH RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE NEAR
BLF AND LWB BY THURSDAY EVENING. DRY WEATHER AND VFR CONDITIONS
WILL HOLD THROUGH MOST OF FRIDAY UNTIL ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH BRINGS RAIN SHOWERS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE FOR FRIDAY
EVENING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. BREEZY WEST WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20
KNOTS MAY OCCUR FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, AND ANOTHER CHANCE OF
RAIN SHOWERS COULD ARISE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...PM
AVIATION...PW
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