760
FXUS61 KRNK 032317
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
717 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
JUST NOT SEEING MUCH COVERAGE OF STORMS, SO HAVE LOWERED POPS
AND SEVERE THREAT IS DIMINISHED.
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED.
CLIMATE SECTION UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
KEY MESSAGE 1: DANGEROUS HEAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
INDEPENDENCE DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
KEY MESSAGE 2: SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY
ADDITIONAL CHANCES OF SHOWERS NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...DANGEROUS HEAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
INDEPENDENCE DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
INDEPENDENCE DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND, BUT IT WILL START TO WEAKEN AS
TROUGHING INCREASES FROM THE NORTH. NEVERTHELESS, HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST ON SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING
100 DEGREES AND HEAT INDICES CLIMBING TOWARDS 105 TO 110 DEGREES FOR
LYNCHBURG AND DANVILLE AND POINTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. THE
HEAT HEADLINES CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR THIS AFTERNOON WILL ALSO BE
IN EFFECT ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE,
TEMPERATURES AND HEAT INDICES SHOULD MAINLY REACH THE 90S. WHILE IT
WILL STILL REMAIN HOT AND HUMID INTO SUNDAY, HEAT INDEX VALUES MAY
COME DOWN SLIGHTLY TOWARDS 100 TO 105 DEGREES ALONG AND EAST OF
ROUTE 29 AS CLOUDS INCREASE. A FURTHER REDUCTION IN THE HEAT IS
ANTICIPATED BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 2: SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY
ADDITIONAL CHANCES OF SHOWERS NEXT WEEK.
SHOWERS/STORMS HAVE BEEN HARD TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO
HEAT DOME IN PLACE. A FEW SPROUTED UP HITHER AND THITHER BUT
LASTED 30 MINS OR LESS, AND BROUGHT SOME SMALL POCKETS OF HEAVY
RAIN AND LIGHTNING, BUT 99% OF OUR CWA REMAINED DRY. WILL BE
INTERESTED TO SEE IF ANYTHING CAN POP AT DUSK ONCE THE CAP
WEAKENS SOMEWHAT, BUT LOOKING AT THE CU FIELD, DOES NOT SEEM
THAT IMPRESSIVE. THEREFORE DROPPED POPS AFTER 8PM.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SATURDAY'S STORM CHANCES LOOK MORE PROMISING AS THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE STARTS TO BREAK DOWN. ON THIS DAY, THE DISTRIBUTION OF
SCATTERED STORMS LOOKS TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD AS WELL AS THE
DAMAGING WIND GUST THREAT. AS A RESULT, THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER HAS INCREASED IN SPATIAL COVERAGE OF A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL
2/5) OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR THE REGION. THIS WOULD BE MAINLY FOR
DAMAGING WINDS AND EXCESSIVE RAINFALL LEADING TO POSSIBLE URBAN,
SMALL, STREAM, AND FLASH FLOODING.
FOLLOWING THE WEEKEND STORMS, THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO DEGRADE AND
WILL OPEN THE DOOR FOR ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES TO MOVE THROUGH.
A MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
NEXT WEEK, BRINGING AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT TOWARDS THE MID-
ATLANTIC AND CENTRAL CONUS. THE FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE
MUCH WHICH TRANSLATES INTO MULTIPLE OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ASIDE FROM LOCALIZED MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG BEFORE 14Z/10AM,
PRIMARILY AT LEWISBURG EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TOMORROW
05/0Z.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE PRACTICALLY OVERHEAD, WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY UNDER 5 KTS. IT WILL ALSO BE
HOT DURING THE AFTERNOON CREATING HIGH DENSITY ALTITUDE...
CONDITIONS LEADING TO LONGER TAKEOFF ROLLS, DECREASE CLIMB RATES
AND WEIGHT RESTRICTIONS.
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS SAT AFTERNOON SHOULD HAVE AN UPTICK
BUT STILL NOT ENOUGH COVERAGE TO HAVE IN THE TAFS. BEST LOCATION
SEEMS TO BE ALONG/NORTH OF A LWB-LYH LINE.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER, PRIMARY FLIGHT CATEGORY IS EXPECTED TO BE VFR WITH
TEMPO MVFR AND SOME IFR DUE TO THUNDERSTORMS AND/OR LATE NIGHT
MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG.
MAIN HAZARD WILL BE THE HEAT...TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WILL BE HOT. THESE EXTREME TEMPERATURES WILL CREATE HIGH
DENSITY ALTITUDE WITH AIRCRAFT PERFORMANCE SIMILAR TO TAKING OFF
FROM A HIGHER ALTITUDE RUNWAY.
CLIMATE
ALL BUT BLUEFIELD BROKE RECORD HIGHS TODAY.
MORE RECORDS MAY BE BROKEN THROUGH HOLIDAY WEEKEND. FOR
REFERENCE, THE RECORDS ARE LISTED BELOW ALONG WITH THE YEAR THE
RECORD OCCURRED.
07/03
STATION HI MAX T HI MIN T
ROANOKE 100/2026 75/1980
LYNCHBURG 100/2026 74/1903
DANVILLE 102/2026 80/1922
BLUEFIELD 92/1911 72/1998
BLACKSBURG 96/2026 71/1941
07/04
STATION HI MAX T HI MIN T
ROANOKE 99/1999 74/2024
LYNCHBURG 98/1966 76/1902
DANVILLE 99/1919 74/1999
BLUEFIELD 92/1957 69/2024
BLACKSBURG 94/1966 78/1949
07/05
STATION HI MAX T HI MIN T
ROANOKE 100/1999 76/2012
LYNCHBURG 98/2024 75/1900
DANVILLE 103/1919 76/1926
BLUEFIELD 93/1948 71/1969
BLACKSBURG 94/1930 69/1932
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ022>024-
032>035-043.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR VAZ022>024-
032-033-043.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
VAZ034-035-044>047-058-059.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
VAZ044>047-058-059.
NC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ003-004-019-
020.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR NCZ003-019-
020.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
NCZ004>006.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ005-
006.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CG/PW/SH/WP
AVIATION...PM/SH/WP
CLIMATE...SH
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