900
FXUS61 KRNK 130627
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
227 AM EDT SAT JUN 13 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
A CHANCE FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ON SUNDAY IS INCREASING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) STORMS POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY, SOME MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE.
2) ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: STORMS POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY, SOME MAY BE STRONG TO
SEVERE.
A QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGER SCALE TROUGH
WILL SWING THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
AHEAD OF THIS UPPER DISTURBANCE, INCREASING WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL AID IN STORM ORGANIZATION. STRONG DAYTIME HEATING WILL
OCCUR THROUGH SUNDAY, ALONG WITH INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE WITH DEW POINTS RISING INTO THE MID/UPPERS 60S EAST OF
THE MOUNTAINS. SHOULD HAVE A CORRIDOR OF FAVORABLE
DESTABILIZATION BY THE AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF THE VIRGINIA
AND NORTH CAROLINA RESULTING IN SBCAPE AND MLCAPE EXCEEDING
1500 J/KG. IT APPEARS THE MOST FAVORABLE ZONE FOR STORMS WILL BE
EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS, GIVEN A BETTER OVERLAP OF SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY, HOWEVER THERE IS A RISK OF SEVERE STORMS NEARLY
AREAWIDE. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS BASED ON MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOWING INVERTED-V PROFILES AND DCAPE VALUES ALSO
EXCEEDING 1000 J/KG.
KEY MESSAGE 2: ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH
SUNDAY.
WHILE A MORE DRY AIRMASS PUSHES INTO THE REGION TODAY,
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL,
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S FORECAST FOR THE PIEDMONT, AND LOW TO
MID 80S FOR MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS. THE DRIER AIRMASS WILL MAKE THE
AIR FEEL LESS MUGGY TODAY; HOWEVER, A RETURN OF HIGHER
DEWPOINTS ON SUNDAY COMBINED WITH INCREASING HIGH TEMPERATURES
BACK INTO THE MID 90S FOR THE PIEDMONT AND MID TO UPPER 80S FOR
MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS, WILL INCREASE HEAT INDEX VALUES ONCE AGAIN
ACROSS THE REGION.
WHILE HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL LIKELY NOT BE MET,
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM ACROSS THE REGION, AND SENSITIVE
GROUPS SHOULD AVOID OUTDOOR ACTIVITY DURING THE PEAK HEATING OF
THE DAY. THOSE THAT WORK OUTDOORS SHOULD SIMILARLY TAKE FREQUENT
BREAKS INDOORS WITH AC, AND DRINK PLENTY OF FLUIDS.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
FOG THIS MORNING IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. SOME INSTANCES
OF LESS THAN 1SM POSSIBLE. SHOULD CLEAR QUICKLY AROUND DAYBREAK
GIVING WAY TO VFR THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS LIGHT, LESS THAN 10KTS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK
GOING BACK INTO A GENERAL SUMMER TIME PATTERN WHERE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BECOME COMMON DURING AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK, BUT MOSTLY VFR OUTSIDE OF
ANY LATE NIGHT FOG AND STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BMG
AVIATION...BMG
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