319
FXUS61 KRNK 142351
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
751 PM EDT WED OCT 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
DISCUSSION OF POSSIBLE RECORD HIGHS FOR WEDNESDAY HAS BEEN
REMOVED SINCE THAT IS NOW IN THE PAST.
HAVE SPED UP THE ARRIVAL TIME OF SHOWERS, AND A FEW STORMS,
ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA FOR LATE THIS EVENING.
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
1) FRONTAL BOUNDARY PROVIDES SHOWER/FEW STORM CHANCES TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY.
2) STRONG FRONT LATE FRIDAY TO BRING BLUSTERY WINDS AND MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES GOING INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: FRONTAL BOUNDARY PROVIDES SHOWER/FEW STORM
CHANCES TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
A SWITCH TO MORE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ADVECTS AN ELONGATED MOISTURE AXIS
AND CORRESPONDING FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OR SO
OF THE CWA FOR THURSDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE RETURN OF PRECIP
CHANCES. IT SHOULD PRIMARILY BE SCATTERED SHOWERS SINCE INSTABILITY
SHOULD BE LACKING. AS OF 730 PM EDT, PROGRESSION OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS ARE A FEW HOURS AHEAD OF SCHEDULE. AS SUCH, OUR LATEST
FORECAST UPDATE WILL REFLECT A SLIGHTLY EARLY ARRIVAL FROM
BLUEFIELD TO LEWISBURG LATE THIS EVENING.
KEY MESSAGE 2: STRONG FRONT LATE FRIDAY TO BRING BLUSTERY WINDS
AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES GOING INTO THE WEEKEND.
WE QUICKLY TRANSITION OUT OF THE ZONAL FLOW WITH THE APPROACH OF A
HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH AND SHARP ATTENDANT SFC COLD FRONT LATE
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE FORM OF STORMS WITH
AGAIN LIMITED INSTABILITY WITH THIS SYSTEM AND THE GREATER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS LOOKS TO BE IN THE WEST MOUNTAINS. THE MAIN IMPACTS FROM
THIS FRONT WILL BE ENHANCED GRADIENT WINDS KICKING IN FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AND THEN SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE
SEASON USHERING IN. IT WILL DEFINITELY FEEL LIKE A ROLLERCOASTER OF
CHANGE AS HIGHS SATURDAY LOOK TO BE MAINLY IN THE LOW 50S FOR MUCH
OF THE MOUNTAINS AND THEN UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S FOR THE PIEDMONT.
SUNDAY MORNING IS GOING TO HAVE FROST/FREEZE CONCERNS FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA WITH PROGGED LOWS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S FOR
THE MOUNTAINS AND MID TO UPPER 30S FOR THE PIEDMONT. THIS COULD
AGAIN BE THE CASE FOR MONDAY MORNING AS WELL.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER,
LOOK FOR LOWERING OF CEILINGS THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS INTO THE IFR/MVFR RANGE. MOST OF THE REGION EAST OF
THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WILL REMAIN VFR, BUT STILL HAVE A
TREND OF LOWERING CEILINGS. ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOWERING
CEILINGS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH
THE NIGHT, AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. BY DAYBREAK
THURSDAY, THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SHOWERS WILL BE NEAR A KBLF-
KLYH LINE, WITH LIMITED PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF THAT LINE. SUB-
VFR VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SOME OF THE SHOWERS AND
ALSO SUBSEQUENT FOG DEVELOPMENT
THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY, SHOWERS, AND A FEW STORMS, WILL
CONTINUE MAKING HEADWAY INTO THE AREA, BUT REMAIN PRIMARILY
NORTH OF NORTH CAROLINA. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR FOR
AREAS NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE NC/VA BORDER. PROGRESSING NORTH OF
THIS LINE CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO TANK INTO MVFR/IFR LEVEL
FAIRLY QUICKLY. VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO RECOVER TO VFR FOR
MOST LOCATIONS, BUT THERE WILL BE SOME REMAINING POCKETS OF
SUB- VFR.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
WITH A STALLED BOUNDARY FOLLOWED BY A STRONG COLD FRONT, SOME
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING, LOOK FOR
AN ABRUPT WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND GUSTY CONDITIONS AT
THE SURFACE. THESE STRONGER WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY VEER NORTH
AND DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. DRY WEATHER AND VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO SUNDAY.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AB/DS
AVIATION...AB/DS
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