355
FXUS61 KRNK 281035
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
635 AM EDT MON SEP 28 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
1) QUIET WEATHER THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT RETURNING RAIN CHANCES TO THE
AREA FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: QUIET WEATHER THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT RETURNING RAIN CHANCES TO THE
AREA FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
BY TUESDAY, THE NOR'EASTER AND ITS ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
THAT HAVE BEEN OFF THE COAST OF NEW JERSEY AND LONG ISLAND WILL FINALLY
LIFT NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION, WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR 500MB
HEIGHTS AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TO BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION.
THIS WILL RETURN DAYTIME HIGHS BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW
80S FOR MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS, AND UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S FOR
PIEDMONT LOCATIONS STARTING WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL SURGE TO ABOVE
NORMAL VALUES AGAIN, DEWPOINTS LOOK TO REMAIN IN THE 40S/50S
WHICH WILL MAKE THE AIRMASS FEEL MUCH MORE TOLERABLE.
BY FRIDAY NIGHT, A BROAD UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO
SLIDE EAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL
USHER IN A COLD FRONT PASSAGE LATE ON FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY
MORNING, WHICH LOOKS TO MODERATE TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR
NORMAL TO START THE WEEKEND. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ALSO
RETURN MINIMAL RAIN CHANCES TO THE AREA. POSSIBLE MOISTURE FROM
A TROPICAL SYSTEM IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL EVENTUALLY TRACK
INTO THE SOUTHEAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK; HOWEVER, TIMING AND
SPECIFIC DETAILS OF HOW MUCH RAINFALL ARE STILL UNCERTAIN AT
THIS TIME. THIS MOISTURE MAY BRING THE NEXT BEST WIDESPREAD
CHANCE FOR RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION.
AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS, WITH A BROKEN
TO SCATTERED MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD DECKS THIS MORNING.
WHILE CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SCATTERED TO BROKEN
TODAY, THESE CLOUD HEIGHTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO LEAD TO ANY
RESTRICTIONS AT ANY TERMINALS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTHWEST TODAY AT ALL
TERMINALS AT AROUND 5-10 KNOTS, WITH GUSTS UP TO 10-15 KNOTS
TODAY. SHORTLY AFTER 00 UTC, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME CALM
AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
MORE WIDESPREAD RIVER VALLEY FOG TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING, WHICH MAY LEAD TO RESTRICTIONS AT
LWB, BLF, AND BCB.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY WITH
VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE DURING EACH
OVERNIGHT, WHERE PATCHY RIVER/MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY FOR LWB. RAIN CHANCES RETURN LATE FRIDAY,
WHICH WILL INCREASE THE LIKELIHOOD OF SUB-VFR CIGS/VSBYS,
ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...EB
AVIATION...EB
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