383
FXUS61 KRNK 200615
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
215 AM EDT WED MAY 20 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
STORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS BY LATE AFTERNOON AND
WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING. LESSER CHANCES EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS, WHICH WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE,
LIMITING STORM CHANCES.
HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE BOARD ON FRIDAY GIVEN
STRONG WEDGING SIGNAL IN SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE.
AN AIR QUALITY ALERT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR CASWELL, ROCKINGHAM,
AND STOKES COUNTIES IN NC THROUGH 12AM THURSDAY DUE TO CODE
ORANGE FOR GROUND LEVEL OZONE.
KEY MESSAGES
KEY MESSAGE 1: MULTIPLE OPPORTUNITIES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH
THE WEEKEND, BEGINNING WITH A COLD FRONT TODAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: MULTIPLE OPPORTUNITIES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH
THE WEEKEND, BEGINNING WITH A COLD FRONT TODAY.
A COLD FRONT IS WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST
LATER TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDE EAST THROUGH SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND ONTARIO.
SHEAR REMAINS MODEST, BUT RETURN MOISTURE FLOW, ALONG WITH
STRONG SURFACE HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN CAPE EXCEEDING 1000-1500
J/KG BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS, ALONG WITH INCREASED FORCING FROM
THE APPROACHING FRONT SHOULD PROVIDE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
STORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS BY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. STORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND SOME HAIL. LINGERING SUBSIDENCE FROM HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING SHOULD KEEP MUCH OF THE PIEDMONT FREE OF RAIN/STORMS
THROUGH THE EVENING.
BY THURSDAY, THE COLD FRONT LOOKS TO BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY
ACROSS VIRGINIA AND THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. AS THIS OCCURS, HIGH
PRESSURE PUSHES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION LEADING TO
EAST/NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO
SOME ISENTROPIC ASCENT ACROSS THE AREA AS WARM MOIST AIR FROM
THE SOUTH RIDES UP OVER THIS COOL BUT SHALLOW POCKET OF AIR AT
THE SURFACE. WITH STABLE AIR AT THE SURFACE, THE THREAT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS TO BE MINIMAL; HOWEVER, SHOWER ACTIVITY
LOOKS VERY LIKELY WITH RAIN FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY
AREAWIDE. A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER CAN'T BE RULED OUT,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE VA/NC BORDER REGION, WHERE BETTER
INSTABILITY OVERLAP MAY OCCUR CLOSER TO THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY.
WEDGING WILL STRENGTHEN ON FRIDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE GREAT LAKES MOVES NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE QUEBEC/ONTARIO
BORDER. GIVEN A MORE FAVORABLE HIGH LOCATION AND CONTINUED
SHOWERS, TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REMAIN ON THE COOLER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE, SO HAVE TRENDED FRIDAY DAYTIME HIGHS LOWER. REPEATED
ROUNDS OF RAIN WILL OCCUR THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND WITH CONTINUES
SOUTHWEST FLOW ADVECTING MOIST AIR NORTH OVER THE WEDGING HIGH
PRESSURE... WHILE THIS MAY RUIN OUTDOOR HOLIDAY WEEKEND PLANS,
IT WILL HOPEFULLY BRING MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL TO THE REGION AT A
STEADY ENOUGH RATE TO PROVIDE SOME AGRICULTURAL AND DROUGHT
RELIEF TO THE AREA. ALTHOUGH REPEATED RAINFALL LOOKS TO OCCUR
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED RAINFALL
IS NOT LOOKING VERY LIKELY, THEREFORE FLOODING POTENTIAL REMAINS
VERY LOCALIZED.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AREA-WIDE VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS CONTINUE AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS DOMINANT. ISOLATED VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE NEAR DAY
BREAK...LWB BEING THE MOST LIKELY TO SEE IMPACTS IF IT DOES
FORM.
BETWEEN 20-21Z, SCATTERED STORMS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP ALONG
THE BLUE RIDGE AND POINTS WEST, WHICH WOULD BRING SUB-VFR TO ANY
TERMINAL THEY IMPACT. COVERAGE INCREASES NEAR THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD, THOUGH STORMS WILL REMAIN SCATTERED AS A COLD FRONT
PUSHES INTO THE AREA. ANY STORM COULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS, THOUGH SEVERE WEATHER WOULD BE
ISOLATED TO THE STRONGEST STORMS. DAN WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTHEAST
OF THE CONVECTION, KEEPING VFR THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD. SHOWERS AND LOWER CLOUDS COULD SET IN BY LATE TONIGHT
AND INTO EARLY THURSDAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK AS THE FRONT SLOWS DOWN OVER THE MID ATLANTIC, WHICH
WILL LEAD TO PERIODS OF SUB- VFR AT ALL TERMINALS EACH DAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN WITH DAILY
CHANCES OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS WILL PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK.
NOTE: BLUEFIELD (KBLF) ASOS IS CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING A
TECHNICAL OUTAGE DUE TO A MAJOR POWER SUPPLY FAILURE.
REPLACEMENT PARTS HAVE BEEN ORDERED. ETA OF REPAIR IS CURRENTLY
UNKNOWN. AMD NOT SKED IS BEING APPENDED TO ITS TAF.
CLIMATE
RECORD-BREAKING HEAT IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. HERE ARE THE
CURRENT RECORDS AND OUR CURRENT FORECAST.
WEDNESDAY, MAY 20, 2026
STATION HI MAX T HI MIN T FORECAST HIGH
ROANOKE 98 IN 1934 70 IN 1998 94
LYNCHBURG 96 IN 1941 68 IN 1902 94
DANVILLE 97 IN 1996 68 IN 2018 96
BLUEFIELD 87 IN 1996 66 IN 1996 83
BLACKSBURG 90 IN 1934 66 IN 1893 89
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NCZ004>006.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BMG/EB
AVIATION...AS/JCB
CLIMATE...RCS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page