186
FXUS61 KRNK 020902
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
502 AM EDT FRI OCT 2 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MODELS HAVE TRENDED LOWER ON OVERALL RAIN TOTALS FOR THE
WEEKEND.
KEY MESSAGES
1) FRIDAY'S WARMTH TO FEATURE HIGH TEMPERATURES THAT ARE 15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
2)EXPECT MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH OVERCAST CONDITIONS THIS
WEEKEND WITH OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN.
3) CRISP FALL WEATHER NEXT WEEK WITH COOL TEMPERATURES AND
ANOTHER STRETCH OF DRY DAYS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: TODAY WILL BE UNSEASONABLY WARM WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES THAT ARE 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST WILL FUNNEL WARM TEMPERATURES INTO THE REGION BY WAY
OF SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN
AN AFTERNOON T-MAX THAT IS ABOUT 15 DEGREES ABOVE THE SEASONAL
NORM WITH READINGS NEAR 90 FOR THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT, AND
UPPER 70S TO MID 80S FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND MOUNTAIN VALLEYS
ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY COULD SEE
A FEW WIND GUSTS NEAR 25 MPH DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGE 2: EXPECT MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH OVERCAST
CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND WITH OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN.
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN U.S. TO SWING THROUGH
THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LEADING EDGE OF THIS AIRMASS WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT. SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
WEST VIRGINIA THIS AFTERNOON TO ALONG THE VA/WV BORDER BY
SUNSET. FRONT WILL THEN CROSS VA AND INTO NC DURING THE
OVERNIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS BRING SURGE OF MUCH COOLER AIR INTO THE
REGION DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS AND WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A
COOL DAMP FALL WEEKEND...TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S FOR HIGHS.
MODELS ARE NOW INDICATING THE FRONTAL SHOWERS MAY WEAKEN ENOUGH
ON SATURDAY THAT SOME AREAS, ESPECIALLY VA/NC BORDER COUNTIES,
SEE LITTLE OR NO RAIN SATURDAY. HOWEVER, BY SUNDAY, A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT WITH
POTENTIAL FOR OVER-RUNNING RAIN TO SPREAD BACK ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH A BETTER OPPORTUNITY FOR WETTING
RAIN ACROSS THE VA/NC BORDER COUNTIES FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEKEND.
KEY MESSAGE 3: CRISP FALL WEATHER NEXT WEEK WITH COOL TEMPERATURES AND
ANOTHER STRETCH OF DRY DAYS.
CLEARING IS EXPECTED FROM NORTH TO SOUTH MONDAY AS THE WEEKEND
FRONT MOVES FARTHER SOUTH AND AWAY FROM THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH PROVIDING FOR A STRING
OF COOL DRY FALL WEATHER DAYS NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL
WITH HIGHS OF 65 TO 75 AND LOWS IN THE 40S. THERE MAY BE A NIGHT
OR TWO WHERE LOWS SLIP INTO THE 30S IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.
AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
IFR TO LIFR RESTRICTIONS IN FOG WILL IMPACT LWB THROUGH 13Z WITH
TEMPO IFR AT BCB. LITTLE TO NO IMPACTS FOR THE OTHER TERMINALS
WITHIN THE RNK SERVICE AREA.
ASIDE FROM MORNING RIVER/VALLEY FOG, VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TODAY(FRIDAY). WINDS TODAY WILL BE OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 20KTS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AT
LYH/DAN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WINDS SHIFTING FROM
THE SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. WIND GUSTS UP TO
20 KTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY SATURDAY. IN
THESE SITUATIONS WHERE THE FRONT COMES IN FROM THE NORTHEAST,
LYH TENDS TO BLOW THE STRONGEST AND LONGEST IN DURATION DUE TO A
LOW LEVEL BARRIER JET THAT FORMS LEE OF THE MOUNTAINS WHEN A
COOL WEDGE ENTERS FROM THE NORTHEAST.
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM, BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO PUT IN
THE TAFS ATTM. THE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN DURING THE
OVERNIGHT, SO NOT OVERLY CONFIDENT THERE WILL BE MUCH VSBY
RESTRICTION. CLOUD BASES ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR UNTIL
AFTER AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. AFTER FROPA SHOULD THEN SEE
LOWER CIGS DEVELOP FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO RIPPLE EAST ALONG THE
FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF
RAIN AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WITH POTENTIAL FOR RIDGE
OBSCURATIONS DUE TO LOWERING CLOUD BASES, RAIN, DRIZZLE AND
FOG. THE STRATUS AND FOG MAY STICK AROUND THROUGH THE MORNING
PUSH MONDAY BEFORE CLEARING.
MOST OF NEXT WEEK IS EXPECTED TO BE VFR WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING RIVER VALLEY FOG.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...PM
AVIATION...PM
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