331
FXUS61 KRNK 041045
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
645 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AIR QUALITY ALERT CONTINUES FOR THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT OF NC
FRIDAY.
SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES LOOK TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA THE NEXT
TWO DAYS, WITH COOLER WEATHER RETURNING BY SUNDAY AREAWIDE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) HEAT AND HUMIDITY CONTINUES TODAY. BREAK IN THE HEAT LATE IN
THE WEEKEND, BUT HEAT BUILDS AGAIN TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
2) STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: HEAT AND HUMIDITY CONTINUES FRIDAY. BREAK IN THE
HEAT LATE IN THE WEEKEND, BUT HEAT BUILDS AGAIN TOWARDS THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT HAS REMAINED OVER
THE REGION LOOKS TO LINGER FOR TWO MORE DAYS THIS WEEK BEFORE AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STARTS TO RETROGRADE WESTWARD INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC STATES BY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 90S IN THE PIEDMONT TODAY, POTENTIALLY
REACHING 100 DEGREES FOR SOME LOCATIONS, WHICH IS 10 TO 17 DEGREES
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. HEAT INDICES WILL RANGE FROM 100 TO 105
TODAY, THOUGH ANY CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION COULD PREVENT
REACHING THE UPPER END OF THAT RANGE. WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS
MIXING OUT ON THURSDAY INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT, MANY AREAS NEVER SAW HEAT INDEX VALUES REACH HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA; THEREFORE, A HEAT ADVISORY WILL NOT BE ISSUED
FOR TODAY ACROSS THE AREA AS DEWPOINTS WILL LIKELY DO THE SAME
THING TODAY. THIS MIXING OUT OF SURFACE DEWPOINTS COMBINED WITH
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL LIKELY REDUCE CHANCES FOR
HEAT INDEX VALUES TO REACH THE 105 MARK ACROSS THE PIEDMONTS OF
VA AND NC IN OUR AREA TODAY. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN HOT
AGAIN ON SATURDAY, BUT SLIGHTLY COOLER, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW
TO MID 90S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT, AND LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS.
THE AFOREMENTIONED RETROGRADING TROUGH WILL BRING MUCH LOWER
500MB HEIGHTS AND DRIER AIR TO THE REGION LATE ON SATURDAY AND
INTO SUNDAY. THESE LOWER 500MB HEIGHTS WILL SUBSEQUENTLY REDUCE
TEMPERATURES TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR,
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE, AND
UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
MODEL GUIDANCE IS TRENDING TOWARDS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING BACK EAST INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND THE
SOUTHEAST BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS LOOKS TO LEAD TO HOT
WEATHER POSSIBLY RETURNING TO THE REGION; HOWEVER, HEADLINE
VALUES OF HEAT DON'T LOOK LIKELY AT THIS TIME.
KEY MESSAGE 2: STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY.
A WESTWARD RETROGRADING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST
WILL PUSH BACK THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT HAS MAINTAINED ITSELF
OVER THE REGION OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. AS THIS OCCURS,
THE AMOUNT OF SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD DECREASE AS THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RETREATS WEST. THIS WILL ALLOW STORMS TO ALSO
TRACK THROUGH THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST FROM PIECES OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRACK SOUTHEAST ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. STORM ACTIVITY TODAY
LOOKS TO REMAIN FAIRLY SCATTERED IN NATURE, AS THE INFLUENCE OF
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS WELL TO THE NORTHEAST; HOWEVER,
THE ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTS STRONG DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE
REGION WITH 1500-2000 J/KG OF SBCAPE, AND 1000-1400 J/KG OF
DCAPE. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP IN THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL LIKELY
PRODUCE STRONG DAMAGING OUTFLOWS THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS.
BY SATURDAY, THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOOKS TO RETREAT FURTHER
SOUTH AND WEST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THE TIMING OF
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROUNDING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND
EJECTING SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
DETERMINE THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION. IF IT
OCCURS TOO EARLY IN THE MORNING ON SATURDAY, THE THREAT FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL LIKELY BE
DIMINISHED; HOWEVER, IF A DISTURBANCE PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, THEN STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
WILL BE LIKELY AREAWIDE. AT THIS TIME, CAM GUIDANCE HAS A
SIMILAR ENVIRONMENT DEVELOPING SATURDAY AFTERNOON, WITH SBCAPE
VALUES IN THE 1500-2000 J/KG RANGE, AND DCAPE VALUES IN THE
1000-1400 J/KG RANGE. ANY STORMS DEVELOPING IN THIS TYPE OF
ENVIRONMENT WILL ONCE AGAIN BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG TO
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN OUTFLOWS.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE PRIMARILY EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TERMINALS FOR
THE AREA. SOME RIVER VALLEY FOG IS OCCURRING AT KLWB THIS
MORNING, AND IS EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH THE 13 UTC
TIMEFRAME. THIS FOG AND LOW STRATUS MAY LEAD TO LIFR
RESTRICTIONS AT TIMES; HOWEVER, THESE RESTRICTIONS SHOULD LIFT
BACK TO VFR LEVELS BY THE 13 UTC TIMEFRAME. WINDS WILL REMAIN
CALM THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS; HOWEVER, THEY LOOK TO
FRESHEN TO 5-10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 15 KNOTS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS OUT OF THE WEST/NORTHWEST. SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS, WITH KDAN CURRENTLY HAVING HIGH ENOUGH PROBABILITIES TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAF LINE. ALL OTHER TERMINALS CURRENTLY DO NOT
HAVE HIGH ENOUGH PROBABILITIES TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME AS THE
BEST CHANCES LOOK TO REMAIN ALONG THE VA/NC STATE LINE.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
SATURDAY WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE ACROSS THE AREA. A LINGERING
THREAT EXISTS SUNDAY PRIMARILY ACROSS MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS,
THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS NOT AS HIGH ON SUNDAY AS COMPARED TO
SATURDAY. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SUB VFR CONDITIONS EACH
MORNING WITH MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG AND IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE RAIN.
DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS, WITH PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
CLIMATE
BELOW ARE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
FOR THE CLIMATE SITES IN THE AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS WERE
BROKEN AT LYNCHBURG (99 DEGREES) AND DANVILLE (102 DEGREES)
TODAY.
FRIDAY 09/04/2026
SITE MAXT YEAR HIMIN YEAR
KBLF 93 1925 74 1925
KDAN 101 1925 74 1993
KLYH 99 1925 72 1970
KROA 99 1925 80 1930
KRNK 93 1925 68 1953
SATURDAY 09/05/2026
SITE MAXT YEAR HIMIN YEAR
KBLF 95 1954 76 1925
KDAN 101 1954 73 2012
KLYH 99 1954 71 1979
KROA 101 1954 72 2019
KRNK 93 1925 70 1899
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...AIR QUALITY ALERT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR NCZ004>006.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...EB
AVIATION...EB
CLIMATE...PM
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