319
FXUS61 KRNK 261735
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
135 PM EDT FRI JUN 26 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD OCCUR DURING
FRIDAY THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH A SEVERE THREAT ON SATURDAY.
2) HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL TAKE PLACE BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD OCCUR
DURING FRIDAY THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH A SEVERE THREAT ON
SATURDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY ON
FRIDAY. INCREASING SYNOPTIC LIFT SHOULD COMBINE WITH
OROGRAPHICAL LIFT TO TAP INTO INSTABILITY AS DEPICTED IN THE
MODEL SOUNDINGS WITH CAPE APPROACHING 1,000 J/KG. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONSEQUENTLY DEVELOP, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE. THIS COLD FRONT SHOULD STALL SOMEWHERE
ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION ON SATURDAY AS IT BECOMES
PARALLEL WITH THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. AS A RESULT, UNSETTLED
WEATHER SHOULD PERSIST THROUGHOUT THIS WEEKEND WITH DAILY
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE STALLED FRONT SHOULD
EVENTUALLY GET SHOVED EASTWARD BY MONDAY DUE TO A BUILDING UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
SATURDAY APPEARS TO SHOW THE HIGHEST CHANCE AND MOST WIDESPREAD
COVERAGE OF STORMS AS CAPE INCREASES TO 1,500 J/KG AND LAPSE
RATES ALOFT STEEPEN. ALTHOUGH WIND SHEAR IS NOT TOO IMPRESSIVE,
THERE IS A THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION
WITH DAMAGING WINDS AS THE MAIN THREAT. THIS SEVERE RISK SEEMS
GREATEST ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA AND
VIRGINIA. INSTABILITY SHOULD DECREASE BY SUNDAY. WHILE
SIGNIFICANT DROUGHT CONDITIONS STILL REMAIN IN PLACE, STORMS
TRACKING WEST TO EAST ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY
TRAIN OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS REPEATEDLY TO PRODUCE A RISK OF
FLASH FLOODING THIS WEEKEND.
KEY MESSAGE 2...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL TAKE PLACE BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AN IMPRESSIVE 597 DAM UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD BUILD
NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TOWARDS
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY DURING MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WHILE CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD LESSEN DUE TO CAPPING ALOFT
FROM THIS RIDGE, THE BIGGER IMPACT WILL BE THE INCREASING HEAT
AND HUMIDITY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD STEADILY RISE DURING MONDAY
AND TUESDAY BUT JUMP NOTABLY BY WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S
FOR THE MAJORITY OF LOCATIONS AND EVEN NEAR 100 DEGREES EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE. SIMILAR READINGS FROM WEDNESDAY MAY STRETCH INTO
THURSDAY AS WELL. HEAT INDICES COULD REACH 100 TO 105 DEGREES
IN THE PIEDMONT AND INTO THE 90S FOR MOST AREAS TO THE WEST
DURING WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. SOME RELIEF MAY BE POSSIBLE BY
THE END OF THE WEEK AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT HEADS SOUTHWARD
INTO THE PIEDMONT TO CAUSE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO RETROGRADE
WESTWARD. MORE PRONOUNCED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD OCCUR BY THAT POINT.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR A FEW SHOWER/STORMS TO COME CLOSE TO
LWB/BCB/ROA/LYH THIS AFTERNOON, BUT NOT GOING TO HAVE IT IN THE
TAFS EXCEPT VCTS/VCSH AS COVERAGE IS VERY WIDELY SCATTERED.
VFR SHOULD CARRY THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING, THEN SOME MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. POTENTIAL
FOR IFR FOG AS WELL ESPECIALLY IF IT RAINS AT A TERMINAL.
MORE SHOWERS/STORMS SATURDAY BUT MOST OF THAT WILL BE AFTER
16Z-18Z, SO AGAIN VCSH AT MOST IN THE MOUNTAINS.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AT
AROUND 5-10 KNOTS, THEN DROP OFF TONIGHT TO CALM/LIGHT THEN
PICKING UP TO AROUND 5KTS POSSIBLY 10KTS BY LATE IN THE TAF
PERIODS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST AGAIN.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY AFTERNOON LOOKS TO HAVE A POTENTIAL FOR BETTER COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO DEGRADED FLIGHT CONDITIONS FOR ALL TERMINALS. AS
ANOTHER MID AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PUSHES THROUGH THE
REGION ON SUNDAY, THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO IMPACT TERMINALS BUT APPEARS BEST COVERAGE
MAY BE SOUTHWEST OF A LINE FROM BLF-MWK. NEXT WEEK SEES
INCREASING HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT SO EXPECTING MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND LESS STORMINESS. SO MAINLY VFR EXCEPT FOR AN
LATE NIGHT RIVER FOG.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...PW
AVIATION...EB/WP
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