821
FXUS61 KRNK 300536
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
136 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
GROWING CONFIDENCE IN HOT WEATHER BEGINNING MONDAY AND LASTING
THROUGH THURSDAY. OTHERWISE, ALMOST NO RAIN UNTIL THURSDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
1) HIGH CONFIDENCE IN IMPACTFUL HEAT THIS WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN IMPACTFUL HEAT THIS WEEK.
THE MAIN STORM TRACK REMAINS WELL NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
WORK WEEK. A STRONG MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE
ARKLATEX, AND GRADUALLY WORK ITS WAY EAST, BECOMING CENTERED
OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AN OMEGA BLOCK DEVELOPS, WITH ROBUST LOW
PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA BEGINNING TO SUPPRESS THE RIDGING
OVER THE APPALACHIANS.
TEMPERATURES AT 850MB WILL HOVER AROUND 21-24 DEGREES C IN THE
AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE HEAT SHOULD
PEAK WEDNESDAY, BUT REMAINS QUITE HIGH THURSDAY AS WELL,
ESPECIALLY OVER THE PIEDMONT. TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S AND 90S
COMBINED WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S WILL RESULT IN
HEAT INDICES BETWEEN 100-106 FOR PARTS OF THE PIEDMONT AS WELL
AS THE ROANOKE URBAN AREA DURING THIS PERIOD. IT IS POSSIBLE
HEAT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED; PLEASE MONITOR FUTURE UPDATES TO
THE FORECAST.
THROUGH WEDNESDAY, AND POSSIBLY THURSDAY, RAIN LOOKS SCARCE,
WITH A FEW TINY CELLS TRYING TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOONS AND
EARLY EVENINGS. WE MAY SEE A ROGUE STORM DEVELOP ALONG THE
SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE, BUT SOME CAPPING AND SKINNY CAPE WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO WEAKER CELLS. HIGHER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RETURN FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT NEARS
AND SLOWLY PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA, AND AS THE RIDGE
WEAKENS.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AREAS OF STRATUS AND DEVELOPING PATCHY DENSE FOG THIS MORNING
WILL LOWER MOST TAF SITES TO LIFR TO MVFR AFTER ABOUT 7-9Z AND
LASTING UNTIL 12-14Z TODAY. MORE FOG, SOME OF IT DENSE, WILL
DEVELOP AGAIN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT INTO MID
MORNING TOMORROW. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WILL SOME
PASSING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES.
CALM TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO A
WSW DIRECTION FOR THE MOUNTAINS, AND A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION FOR
THE PIEDMONT. SPEEDS WILL BE 3-7 KTS AND DROP OFF TO CALM OR A
VERY LIGHT WESTERLY WIND OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS ON
MONDAY TO BRING DRIER WEATHER AND MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY, OUTSIDE OF MORNING FOG FOR THE
MOUNTAIN TERMINALS. A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY DEVELOP
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SH
AVIATION...SH
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