408
FXUS61 KRNK 240554
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
154 AM EDT WED JUN 24 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE ENTIRE FORECAST PACKAGE HAS BEEN UPDATED. CONDITIONS REMAIN
DRY UNTIL FRIDAY AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT
ARRIVES. HEAVY DOWNPOURS APPEAR POSSIBLE IN STRONGER STORMS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL TAKE PLACE
FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. AFTERWARD, HOT AND
HUMID CONDITIONS SHOULD ARRIVE FOR THE FOLLOWING WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
TAKE PLACE FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. AFTERWARD,
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS SHOULD ARRIVE FOR THE FOLLOWING WEEK.
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL FOR TODAY AND THURSDAY TO
KEEP CONDITIONS DRY, A COLD FRONT WILL ORGANIZE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND APPROACH THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS LATER ON
FRIDAY. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INCREASE
BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER, THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SHOULD BECOME PARALLEL WITH THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT DURING THE
WEEKEND TO MARK A CONTINUING STRETCH OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH
DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DUE TO AMPLE
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE PRESENT, THERE IS AN OPPORTUNITY FOR
STRONG STORMS THAT COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. ALTHOUGH DROUGHT CONDITIONS STILL REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION, ANY STORMS TRAINING OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS
MAY PRESENT HYDROLOGICAL ISSUES.
SOME OF THE MODELS INDICATE THAT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD EXIT
OFFSHORE BY MONDAY. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MAY BUILD ACROSS
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.
THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN WOULD PROVIDE A SOMEWHAT DRIER TREND WITH
ANY COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS BEING LIMITED TO TERRAIN AND
DIURNAL HEATING. MORE IMPORTANTLY, THE BIGGEST IMPACT FROM THIS
PATTERN WILL BE THE INCREASE IN HEAT AND HUMIDITY. TEMPERATURES
MAY REACH THE UPPER 80S TO THE UPPER 90S TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK, AND HEAT INDICES COULD POSSIBLY ENTER THE LOWER 100S
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. HOT AND HUMID WEATHER COULD LAST THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL. SOME FOG, SOME OF IT DENSE, MAY DEVELOP,
MOSTLY FOR KLWB AND PERHAPS KBCB AND KBLF THIS MORNING. IN
GENERAL, LIGHT WESTERLY OR NORTHERLY WINDS THIS MORNING WILL
MAINTAIN FOR THE MOUNTAIN TERMINALS TODAY, AND WILL BECOME
SOUTHERLY FOR KROA AND KLYH. SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN UNDER 5 KTS.
EXPECT MORE CALM TO VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WITH
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR PATCHY DENSE FOG AT KLWB.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS BENIGN UNTIL FRIDAY WHEN
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY PASS THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC. THE
SLOW PROGRESSION OF THE APPROACHING FRONT MAY RESULT IN MULTIPLE
DAYS OF PRECIPITATION AND THUNDERSTORMS, SO SUB-VFR CONDITIONS
MAY PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. WESTERLY WINDS
COULD ALSO GUST TO 20 TO 25 KTS ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...PW
AVIATION...SH
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