668
FXUS61 KRNK 231646
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1246 PM EDT SUN AUG 23 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION FORECAST UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DRIER COOLER WEATHER REMAINS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK,
WITH NEXT RAIN CHANCES RETURNING THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: DRIER COOLER WEATHER REMAINS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK,
WITH NEXT RAIN CHANCES RETURNING THURSDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL REMAIN OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THIS UPCOMING WORK WEEK.
THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN AVERAGE THROUGH
THE TUESDAY OF THIS WEEK. BY WEDNESDAY, THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
LOOKS TO FINALLY GET EJECTED TO THE NORTHEAST, WHICH WILL RAISE
500MB HEIGHTS ACROSS THE REGION BRIEFLY. AS THIS HAPPENS, THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THAT LOOKS TO REMAIN QUASI- STATIONARY
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY WILL SLOWLY PUSH EAST AND
ALLOW THE BERMUDA SURFACE HIGH TO TAKE OVER. THIS WILL PUMP MORE
MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC, AND
RETURN THE SUMMER LIKE HUMID AIRMASS AREAWIDE BY WEDNESDAY.
AGAIN ON LATE WEDNESDAY, AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE VORTICITY
MAXIMA LOOKS TO EJECT SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES REGION. THIS SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO HAVE A COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH IT AT THE SURFACE THAT WILL BRING RAIN CHANCES
BACK INTO THE REGION BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IT'S TOO
SOON AT THIS TIME TO KNOW WHETHER THESE STORMS WILL BRING THE
CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER OR FLASH FLOODING, AS THIS WILL
GREATLY DEPEND ON THE TIMING ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR A MAJORITY OF THE TAF PERIOD AT
ALL TERMINALS, WITH POSSIBLE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR TO IFR CIGS
AND VSBYS DEVELOPING AT LWB AND BLF DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS MONDAY. THESE RESTRICTIONS SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE AFTER
SUNRISE GIVEN THE DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE.
OUTSIDE OF THOSE BRIEF POSSIBLE EARLY MORNING FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS, THERE ARE NO OTHER RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN OUT OF THE WEST/NORTHWEST THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD, WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 5-10 KNOTS AND GUSTS UP
TO 20 KNOTS EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING TODAY
BEFORE BECOMING CALM OVERNIGHT. AGAIN ON MONDAY WINDS LOOK TO
PICK UP TO 5-10 KNOTS SUSTAINED, WITH GUSTS OF ONLY 10-15 KNOTS
FORECAST.
OUTLOOK...
DRIER AIRMASS WILL SINK INTO THE AREA TODAY AND REMAIN INTO
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SHOULD BE MAINLY VFR ASIDE FROM ANY
LATE NIGHT FOG, MAINLY KLWB. NEXT SYSTEM APPEARS TO BRING SOME
CHANCES FOR STORMS THURSDAY WITH POSSIBILITY FOR SUB-VFR
CIGS/VSBYS.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...EB
AVIATION...EB
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