620
FXUS61 KRNK 090106
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
906 PM EDT THU MAY 8 2025
SYNOPSIS
STORMS WILL BE STRONG TO SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
CONTAINING HAIL AND POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THE
ACTUAL COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY, TEMPERATURES
COOLING FOR THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE
REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK, PROVIDING THE OPPORTUNITY FOR A
WIDESPREAD WETTING RAIN MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 900 PM EDT THURSDAY...
POPS AND TEMPERATURES WERE ADJUSTED THIS EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
KEY MESSAGES:
1) SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
2) FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TOMORROW AND ANOTHER ROUND OF
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE.
A SMALL AREA OF CONTINUED CONVECTION, NOW MOVING OUT OF THE NEW
RIVER VALLEY HAS NOW BEGUN TO WEAKEN. THIS CLUSTER OF RAIN AND
EMBEDDED STORMS HAVE ALLOWED FOR SOME STABILIZATION ACROSS
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND INTO THE NEW RIVER VALLEY. THIS WILL BE
THE ZONE OF UNCERTAINTY FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IF
THERE IS ENOUGH DESTABILIZATION FOR RENEWED CONVECTION. FURTHER
OUTSIDE OF THIS ZONE, INTO NORTH CAROLINA AND INTO THE VIRGINIA
PIEDMONT, BETTER CONFIDENCE FOR STORM COVERAGE BY THE EVENING
SINCE THIS REGION HAS NOT BEEN WORKED OVER BY MORNING
CONVECTION.
DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S ALONG WITH THE AFTERNOON WARMTH SHOULD
STILL LEAD TO MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MUCAPE IN THE 1000-1500
J/KG RANGE BY MID- AFTERNOON. 0-6KM SHEAR IS FORECAST BETWEEN
35-40 KTS AND LAPSE RATES INCREASE TO ABOUT 7 C/KM. THIS SORT OF
ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT A COMBINATION OF
THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS AND SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE
HAIL, DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.
THE UPPER DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO EXIT THE FORECAST AREA BY
MIDNIGHT, STILL LEAVING US IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM
THE GREAT LAKES AND THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND NORTHERN MID-
ATLANTIC OVERNIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL MAINTAIN THE THREAT OF
SOME LIGHT SHOWERS THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT, BUT NOTHING
SIGNIFICANT.
THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SINK SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY
FRIDAY. THE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT APPEARS THAT IT WILL BE
SLOW ENOUGH THAT ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA PIEDMONT ON
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. STORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE CAPABLE OF STRONG
DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 200 PM EDT THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) QUIET AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND.
2) TEMPERATURES REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AS THE FRONT PUSHES OFF TO THE SOUTH, A FEW STRAY SHOWERS MAY LINGER
EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE PIEDMONT BEFORE CLEARING OUT
OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES IN ACROSS THE AREA, KEEPING DRY AND
QUIET CONDITIONS IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SOME WEDGING IS
EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE ON SUNDAY, WITH A MORE EASTERLY FLOW KEEPING
COOL AND CLOUDY WEATHER OVER THE AREA. DUE TO THE WEDGE AND FRONTAL
PASSAGE, IT WILL BE A PLEASANT WEEKEND, WITH NO CHANCE OF RAINFALL,
AS MODELS NOW HAVE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING FAR ENOUGH TO OUR
SOUTH THAT ANY RAINFALL SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF OUR AREA.
AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED, THE SYNOPTIC SETUP WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE, WITH HIGHS FOR BOTH DAYS THIS WEEKEND IN THE
LOW 60S TO MID 70S. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S/50S EACH MORNING, THOUGH
THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS ON SATURDAY MORNING COULD DIP DOWN INTO THE
UPPER 30S.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 200 PM EDT THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) AN UPPER LOW LINGERS ACROSS THE AREA NEXT WEEK, WITH RAIN CHANCES
POSSIBLE EACH DAY.
2) COOL TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK, SLOWLY WARMING UP BY THE END
OF THE WEEK.
THE QUIET WEATHER ENDS ON MONDAY AS A CUTOFF UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER
THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BEGINS TO DRIFT NORTH THEN
NORTHEAST. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW ALONG THE GULF COAST WILL ALSO
TRACK NORTHEAST AND INTO OUR AREA MONDAY NIGHT. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT WILL DRIVE IN MOISTURE FROM BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND GULF,
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY. WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE RNK CWA, WITH TUESDAY SEEING THE
BEST COVERAGE OF RAINFALL. ALTHOUGH THE DEEPEST MOISTURE MOVES
THROUGH LATE TUESDAY, THE UPPER-LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER OVER THE
AREA THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK, KEEPING SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE
EACH DAY, PARTICULARLY IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE AID OF DIURNAL
HEATING. POP CHANCES REDUCE BY THURSDAY, TO AROUND 30% AS THE LOW
BEGINS TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA WITH A MORE SUMMERTIME CONVECTION
SETUP MOVING BACK IN FOR THE LATE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH
WILL KEEP A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OF MOISTURE IN THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES STEADILY RISE THROUGH THE WEEK, WITH 60S/70S ON MONDAY
RISING INTO THE 70S/80S BY THURSDAY, DUE TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. LOWS
REMAIN CONSISTENT EACH MORNING, IN THE 50S/60S.
AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 700 PM EDT THURSDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING
AT ALL TERMINALS OUTSIDE OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT MAY IMPACT
THEIR VICINITY. THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING MAY PRODUCE ERRATIC
AND GUSTY WINDS AS THEY MOVE NEAR OR OVER TERMINALS. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD END BY THE 06 UTC TIMEFRAME AS
DAYTIME HEATING BECOMES VERY LIMITED ACROSS THE AREA. WITH MUCH
OF THE AREA SEEING RAIN, AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING OVER THE
REGION, PRODUCING MVFR TO LIFR RESTRICTIONS AT ALL TERMINALS
BETWEEN THE 06 TO 18 UTC TIMEFRAME. UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH AS THE
TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE COULD CLEAR OUT BLF AND LWB
EARLIER THAN ALL OTHER TERMINALS AS DRIER AIR PUSHES IN FROM THE
NORTH AND WEST. OVERALL, EXPECT SUB VFR CONDITIONS TO LINGER
THROUGH 18 UTC FOR ALL TERMINALS BEFORE CLEARING CONDITIONS
DEVELOP AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FINALLY PUSHES EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE. SOME THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE FOR DAN AFTER
18 UTC FRIDAY; HOWEVER, THIS IS THE ONLY SITE THAT SHOULD SEE
ANY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TOMORROW.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
CLEARING BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL BRING IMPROVEMENT
IN FLIGHT CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND.
A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAKES ITS WAY TO THE MID-
ATLANTIC TO PROVIDE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION (AND SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS) EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF RAIN AND LOW CIGS LATE MONDAY THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...BMG
NEAR TERM...BMG/EB
SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...BMG/EB
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page