211
FXUS61 KRNK 301519
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1019 AM EST MON DEC 30 2024
SYNOPSIS
EXPECT LINGERING CLOUDS FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND SUNNY SKIES FOR
THE PIEDMONT. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE MORE
CHANCES OF RAIN FOR NEW YEAR'S EVE DAY AND NIGHT AND WINDS WILL
ALSO BE VERY GUSTY. A COLDER AND DRIER AIR MASS WILL ARRIVE BY
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 1015 AM EST MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN PRECIPITATION ENDING THIS MORNING,
CLOUDS LINGERING IN THE MOUNTAINS, AND SUNNY SKIES FOR THE
PIEDMONT TODAY.
2) ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS.
STRATOCUMULUS EXTENDED FROM THE BLUE RIDGE NORTHWEST INTO THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MAY BE ABLE TO SEE A FEW BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGES AND 12Z RNK
SOUNDING INDICATED SOME MID LEVEL DRY AIR AVAILABLE TO MIX OUT
SOME OF THE LOWER CLOUDS. HAVE KEPT HIGH TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO
CURRENT FORECAST. THOSE VALUES ARE STILL AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL IN THE MOUNTAINS AND ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL EAST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
PREVIOUS FORECAST
AS OF 200 AM EST MONDAY...
A COLD FRONT WAS CURRENTLY MOVING OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING. ALOFT, A TROUGH AXIS HAD SWUNG THROUGH MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. A LARGE BAND OF POSITIVE VORTICITY WAS STILL
MOVING AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH, AND WAS HELPING TO KEEP
SHOWERS GOING ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD WANE AND BECOME MORE CONFINED TO JUST SW WV IN A COUPLE
OF HOURS, ENDING ALTOGETHER SOON AFTER AS THE NORTHERLY
COMPONENT TO THE WINDS DISSIPATES AND THE DIRECTION DROPS BACK
TO MAINLY WESTERLY. WE MAY SEE A FEW SNOWFLAKES MIX IN FOR PARTS
OF THE GREENBRIER VALLEY BEFORE THIS HAPPENS.
WESTERLY WINDS WILL SET IN TODAY WITH GUSTS TO 20 TO 30 MPH AT
TIMES BEFORE DIMINISHING TONIGHT. LOOKING UPSTREAM, THERE IS
STILL PLENTY OF MOISTURE ARRIVING FOR THE MOUNTAINS, AND DON'T
EXPECT SKIES TO BEGIN TO CLEAR UNTIL AFTERNOON OR EVENING. EVEN
THEN, CIRRUS IS EXPECTED. HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE MOUNTAINS
WILL BE IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S. FOR THE PIEDMONT, SKIES WILL BE
SUNNY AFTER DAYBREAK, AND HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE MID 50S TO LOW
60S.
THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA TUESDAY, AND OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME GRADUALLY CLOUDIER BY TUESDAY
MORNING. FOG MAY DEVELOP EARLY BEFORE FOR THE PIEDMONT BEFORE
CLOUDS SET IN. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 145 AM EST MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR RAIN SHOWERS ENTERING THE MOUNTAINS ON
TUESDAY MORNING AND SPREADING EASTWARD DURING THE DAY.
2) THE RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BY
TUESDAY NIGHT AS NORTHWEST WINDS BECOME GUSTY.
3) DRY WEATHER RETURNS ON THURSDAY, BUT MORE SNOW SHOWERS MAY
ARRIVE ON THURSDAY NIGHT IN SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY,
WHILE THE PARENT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE STAYS TO THE NORTHWEST.
RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD ARRIVE IN THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS ON
TUESDAY MORNING AND SPREAD EASTWARD DURING THE DAY. THE WIND
WILL INCREASE NOTABLY BY TUESDAY NIGHT AS AN 850 MB JET REACHING
UP TO 50 KNOTS CROSSES THE BLUE RIDGE. WINDS AT THE SURFACE
WILL TURN TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST AND BECOME GUSTY WITH THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS APPROACHING WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE INCREASE IN
COLD AIR ADVECTION SHOULD CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO DIVE BELOW
FREEZING AND CHANGE ANY RAIN SHOWERS TO SNOW SHOWERS WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE BEFORE WEDNESDAY MORNING.
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. ONE TO THREE INCHES OF SNOW MAY BE POSSIBLE IN
WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY BETWEEN EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WHILE OTHER FAVORED UPSLOPE LOCATIONS FROM
BOONE TO LEWISBURG MAY RECEIVE UP TO AN INCH. THE SNOW SHOWERS
SHOULD SUBSIDE BY THURSDAY MORNING, BUT THE WIND MAY STILL
REMAIN BREEZY UNTIL THURSDAY EVENING. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH
SPIRALING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA COULD INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR MORE SNOW
SHOWERS IN SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA ON THURSDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 145 AM EST MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR MORE MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY
WINDS ON FRIDAY.
2) DRY CONDITIONS ARRIVE BY SATURDAY, BUT CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
DURING SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD LINGER THROUGH FRIDAY, AND THE WIND
WILL BECOME GUSTY AGAIN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE SNOW SHOWERS
SHOULD FADE BY FRIDAY NIGHT, BUT THE WIND WILL STAY BREEZY
THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD EVENTUALLY BUILD ACROSS
THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS ON SATURDAY NIGHT TO BRING LIGHTER
WINDS. DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY SUNDAY,
BUT CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE DURING THE DAY AS THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE PLAINS. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY ON THE TRACK AND TIMING OF THIS
UPCOMING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM, SO CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO
MENTION ANY FURTHER DETAILS FOR LATE SUNDAY AND BEYOND.
AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 200 AM EST MONDAY...
A COLD FRONT WAS IN THE PROCESS OF CROSSING THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING, ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE UPPER TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND MVFR CEILINGS
WERE AFFECTING THE TERMINALS AT TIMES, SAVE FOR LYH AND DAN.
RAIN WAS MODERATE AT TIMES WITH A FEW SPOTS OF DRIZZLE.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE BY DAYBREAK WITH THE FORCING FOR ASCENT
MOVING AWAY. UPSTREAM SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PLENTY OF STRATUS
AND OTHER CLOUD DEBRIS HEADED THIS WAY, AND BLF AND LWB WILL
CONTINUE TO HAVE MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH ABOUT 21Z. ELSEWHERE,
WESTERLY WINDS WILL HELP CLEAR OUT LOW CLOUDS EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE, BUT EXPECT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES. BCB WILL SEE LOW
VFR CEILINGS UNTIL ABOUT 21Z AS WELL. WESTERLY WINDS SET IN FOR
THE MOUNTAINS BEFORE DAYBREAK THIS MORNING, AND REACH LYH AROUND
NOON OR SO. EXPECT SOME GUSTS TO 20 KTS AT TERMINALS, AND UP TO
30 KTS AT ELEVATION.
THE NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES TUESDAY, WITH MVFR OR LOWER CEILINGS
REDEVELOPING AFTER 31/06Z, AND RAIN ARRIVING AFTER 12Z.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
LOOKS LIKE A RAINY NEW YEAR'S EVE WITH SUB-VFR AND POOR FLYING
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY AND NIGHT. TUESDAY EVENING INTO
WEDNESDAY LOOK VERY WINDY, WITH WESTERLY WINDS GUSTING TO 25 TO
35 KTS WITH THE PASSAGE OF ANOTHER FRONT. CEILINGS SHOULD
IMPROVE QUICKLY FOR THE PIEDMONT, AND REMAIN VFR WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY.
FOR THE MOUNTAINS, THERE WILL BE SCATTERED -SHSN/SPECKLED -SHRA
ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT, AND -SHSN ON
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS PRECIPITATION WILL PRIMARILY
AFFECT BLF AND LWB, BUT WE WILL SEE MVFR CEILINGS FOR ALL
MOUNTAIN TERMINALS.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...SH
NEAR TERM...AMS/SH
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...SH
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