350
FXUS61 KRNK 112328
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
728 PM EDT THU JUN 11 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
HAVE LOWERED POPS THIS EVENING PER LATEST RADAR/HI-RES TRENDS.
AVIATION UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
1:A BETTER LIKELIHOOD OF SEVERE STORMS ON FRIDAY.
2: ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY, WARMEST READINGS ARE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: BETTER CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
FRIDAY. MAIN THREATS WOULD BE WIND DAMAGE.
LONE SEVERE STORM MOVING EAST THROUGH BEDFORD COUNTY MAY SLIDE
EAST TO CAMPBELL/APPOMATTOX AND CHARLOTTE COUNTIES THROUGH 8PM.
THERE WAS SOME CONCERN THAT ONCE CAP WEAKENED AT SUNSET, THEN
STORMS WOULD ERUPT BUT LATEST VIS SATELLITE SHOWING LIMITED CU.
LOOKING FAIRLY QUIET OVERNIGHT, BUT COULD HAVE SOME PATCHY FOG
ESPECIALLY MOUNTAIN RIVER VALLEYS.
FOR FRIDAY, A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST, WHICH
WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL FORCING. INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN EQUALLY
HIGH TO TODAY, WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S/90S. DUE TO THESE
FACTORS, MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH DURING PEAK HEATING MID-AFTERNOON, WHICH IS WHY
A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS IS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. DAMAGING
WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE THE MAIN THREAT, AND WILL INCREASE FURTHER
IN LIKELIHOOD TOMORROW. LARGE HAIL IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY IN THE
STRONGEST STORMS.
KEY MESSAGE 2: ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY, WARMEST READINGS ARE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY.
850MB TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO SURGE TO AROUND 20-24 DEGREES
CELSIUS. TEMPERATURES ALOFT THIS HIGH TYPICALLY TRANSLATE TO
UPPER 90 TEMPERATURES TO NEAR 100 DEGREE TEMPERATURES AT THE
SURFACE WITH ADIABATIC WARMING. WITH STORM ACTIVITY EXPECTED ON
FRIDAY, THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IF TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE
HIGH TEMPERATURES THAT THE NBM IS CURRENTLY FORECASTING ACROSS
THE AREA; THEREFORE, SOME CONSSHORT WAS BLENDED IN TO LOWER
HIGH TEMPERATURES REGION WIDE. FORECAST HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S
ARE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE PIEDMONTS OF VIRGINIA AND NORTH
CAROLINA ON FRIDAY, WITH MID TO UPPER 80S FORECAST FOR MOUNTAIN
LOCATIONS. ONE CAVEAT THAT WAS MENTIONED ABOVE IS THAT IF STORM
ACTIVITY PUSHES INTO THE REGION IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON, HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR THE DAY MIGHT BE CAPPED AT WHATEVER STATIONS
END UP REACHING PRIOR TO STORM ACTIVITY PUSHING INTO THE REGION.
WHILE TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REACH THE HOTTEST OF THE YEAR THUS
FAR, DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO BE ELEVATED
ACROSS THE REGION IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S. THIS WILL LEAD TO
HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE LOW 100S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT, AND UPPER
80S TO LOW 90S ACROSS MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS. WHILE THE AIR WILL
FEEL MUGGY, DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING NEEDED TO REACH THESE
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 WILL LIKELY MIX
DOWN SOME DRIER AIR ALOFT, AND INEVITABLY LOWER SURFACE
DEWPOINTS SLIGHTLY INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL LIKELY PREVENT HEAT INDEX VALUES FROM CLIMBING TO HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA LEVELS; HOWEVER, FOLKS SHOULD STILL CONTINUE
TO TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS FROM THE OUTDOOR HEAT, AND DRINK PLENTY
OF FLUIDS. SENSITIVE GROUPS SHOULD ALSO REMAIN INDOORS DURING
THE PEAK HEAT OF THE DAY.
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON FRIDAY WILL PROVIDE SOME RELIEF AS
DEWPOINTS ARE LOWERED AREAWIDE, WHICH WILL REDUCE THE MUGGY
FEELING OUTSIDE; HOWEVER, HIGHS WILL STILL REACH THE LOW TO MID
90S IN THE PIEDMONT, AND UPPER 80S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. MID TO
UPPER 90S LOOK TO RETURN IN THE PIEDMONT, AND MID TO UPPER 80S
IN THE MOUNTAINS ON SUNDAY BEFORE ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA LATE SUNDAY.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
MAY SEE A STORM OVER/NEAR KLYH BETWEEN 00-01Z. OTHERWISE, VFR
THROUGH THE NIGHT. EXCEPTION MAY BE SOME FOG AT LWB/BCB DOWN TO
MVFR/IFR.
FRIDAY SHOULD HAVE MORE COVERAGE OF CONVECTION AS A FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WILL HAVE AT LEAST VCTS FROM
BLF/BCB/LWB, WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF SUB-VFR THUNDER AT LWB
PER MODEL SOLUTIONS AROUND 20Z.
BEYOND THE EARLY MORNING HOURS, WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN OUT OF THE
WEST/SOUTHWEST AT AROUND 5-10 KNOTS, WITH GUSTS UP TO 15-20
KNOTS ACROSS THE AREA STARTING AROUND 15 UTC.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK
FRONT HEADS EAST FRIDAY NIGHT WITH STORMS EXITING. PASSAGE OF
THE FRONT WILL BRING A PERIOD OF DRYING SATURDAY BEFORE GOING
BACK INTO A GENERAL SUMMER TIME PATTERN WHERE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL BECOME COMMON DURING AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS, FOLLOWED BY CLEARING AT NIGHT WITH PATCHY FOG.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...EB/JCB/WP
AVIATION...EB/WP
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