781
FXUS61 KRNK 110633
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
233 AM EDT TUE AUG 11 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WITH REPEATED ROUNDS OF
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK.
AVIATION UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
1) UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THIS WEEK WITH
DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME STORMS MAY BE
STRONG TO SEVERE, AND MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY
INCREASE THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THIS WEEK WITH
DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME STORMS MAY BE
STRONG TO SEVERE, AND MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY
INCREASE THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CURRENTLY REMAINING QUASI-STATIONARY ACROSS
THE WESTERN CONUS WILL LEAD TO SUBTLE TROUGHING ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK.
THIS NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN COMBINED WITH A 50-80 KNOT JET
STREAK REMAINING IN PLACE ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA AND STATES NORTH
WILL AID IN DEEP LAYER SHEAR PRESENT ACROSS THE REGION. THIS
SHEAR COUPLED WITH MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES TRAVELING IN THE MEAN
NORTHWEST FLOW AROUND THE WESTERN CONUS RIDGE EAST THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY WILL LEAD TO POSSIBLE REPEATED ROUNDS OF MESOSCALE
CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS (MCS) MOVING INTO THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE
WEEK. SOME OF THESE MCS MAY PRODUCE STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS
THAT HAVE ALREADY BEEN SEEN ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY WITH ONE
OF THESE MCS. OVERALL, THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING
OF THESE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES, AS SOME MAY ENTER THE REGION
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT OR EARLY MORNING HOURS; HOWEVER, THE
TIMING OF WHEN THEY COME THROUGH THE REGION WILL GREATLY
DETERMINE HOW STRONG THE WINDS WILL BE AS THEY MOVE INTO THE
REGION.
ALONG WITH THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL, THERE WILL ALSO BE
A FLASH FLOOD THREAT ACROSS THE REGION. WITH MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF
STORMS POSSIBLE, SOME AREAS COULD RECEIVE SEVERAL INCHES OF
RAINFALL BY THE END OF THE WEEK, WHICH MAY LEAD TO SWELLING OF
STREAMS AND CREEKS ACROSS THE REGION. URBAN FLOODING ALSO CAN'T
BE RULED OUT, ESPECIALLY WITH ANY STORMS THAT TRACK OVER
REPEATED LOCATIONS. A LARGE CONCERN IS THAT THESE AFOREMENTIONED
SYSTEMS LEAVE TRAILING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES DRAPED ACROSS THE
AREA IN THE MORNING, WHICH MAY THEN TRIGGER AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. GIVEN
THIS FLASH FLOOD THREAT, A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED ACROSS
AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING,
WITH EXTENSIONS IN TIME POSSIBLY NEEDED DEPENDING ON FUTURE
FORECASTS.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD
OUTSIDE ANY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THAT MAY MOVE
OVER/WITHIN THE VICINITY OF ANY TERMINAL. THERE IS QUITE A LOT
OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY AS MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TODAY. CURRENTLY, A MCS IS ENTERING WESTERN WV, AND
WILL LIKELY IMPACT LWB AND BLF BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS;
HOWEVER, THE IMPACT THIS HAS ON ANY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORMS IS UNCERTAIN. MOST CAM GUIDANCE HAS AN
ADDITIONAL ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS ENTERING THE AREA LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON TODAY; HOWEVER, SOME CAM GUIDANCE DOES NOT DUE TO THIS
MORNING ACTIVITY LEAVING BEHIND A STABLE AIRMASS. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY, IT IS LIKELY THAT SEVERAL AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED
TODAY. FOR NOW, HAVE KEPT VCTS IN THE AFTERNOON AND LATE
EVENINGS FOR MOUNTAIN TERMINALS.
WINDS TODAY WILL PRIMARILY REMAIN WESTERLY/NORTHWESTERLY AT
AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS, WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 15-20 KNOTS DURING
THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.
NO METARS FOR KBLF DUE TO A POWER OUTAGE IN THE AREA. AMD NOT
SKED.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY, WITH SUB- VFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE ALONG WITH GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL IN ANY OF THE STRONGER STORMS.
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING FOG MAY OCCUR IN THE MOUNTAINS,
ESPECIALLY WHERE ANY RAINFALL OCCURS FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH CONVECTION MAY BECOME LESS
INTENSE AND MORE SCATTERED BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, LITTLE CHANGE
IN THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED WITH DAILY CHANCES
OF STORMS EACH AFTERNOON.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...EB
AVIATION...EB
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page