806
FXUS61 KRNK 190721
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
321 AM EDT WED AUG 19 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS REFLECTING AN SLIGHTLY EARLIER ARRIVAL OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY MORNING, OTHERWISE NO
CHANGES.
AVIATION FORECAST UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN ON THURSDAY, WITH AN
INCREASED THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE PIEDMONT ON FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN ON THURSDAY, WITH AN
INCREASED THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE PIEDMONT ON FRIDAY.
STARTING THE DAY OFF WITH LOCALIZED PATCHY FOG THAT WILL BURN
OFF QUICKLY AFTER 8 AM. OTHERWISE, WE CAN EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY, WITH TEMPERATURES THAT ARE NEAR
NORMAL FOR MID-AUGUST.
ROUNDS OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL RETURN FOR
THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES, WITH INCREASING CONFIDENCE
THAT A WEAKENING LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL ENTER SOUTHEAST WEST
VIRGINIA AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE.
MOIST AIR POOLING AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL THEN SUPPORT SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANY OF
THE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A DAMAGING WIND GUST
AND/OR HEAVY DOWNPOURS THAT COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING, THOUGH THERE ARE NO SPECIFIC LOCATIONS UNDER AN
INCREASED THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER. WILL ALSO BE KEEPING AN EYE
ON HEAT INDICES ACROSS THE PIEDMONT, WHICH WILL RISE INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 90S DURING MID-AFTERNOON, AND POSSIBLY TOUCH THE
LOW 100S IN A FEW SPOTS.
LOOKING TO FRIDAY, CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING HIGH RAINFALL RATES ACROSS THE PIEDMONT DURING THE
EVENING. THIS AREA HAS BEEN HIGHLIGHTED FOR A SLIGHT RISK OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL, INDICATING AN INCREASED PROBABILITY THAT
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING MAY OCCUR, ESPECIALLY IF STORMS PASS
REPEATEDLY OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS. LATEST DATA SUGGESTS THAT
THE MOST LIKELY IMPACTED AREAS STRETCH FROM THE FOOTHILLS OF
NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA INTO THE SOUTHSIDE AREA OF VIRGINIA,
THOUGH THIS MAY BE EXPANDED IN COVERAGE AS NEW DATA BECOMES
AVAILABLE. THE MOST- LIKELY TIMING OF THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT IS
BETWEEN 6 PM AND MIDNIGHT.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AS A
SERIES OF DISTURBANCE PASS ACROSS THE REGION. DRIER AIR WILL
ARRIVE SUNDAY TO BRING REDUCED RAIN CHANCES FOR THE FIRST FEW
DAYS OF THE NEW WEEK.
FROM FRIDAY ONWARD, DAILY TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE SECOND HALF OF AUGUST, WITH NO UNUSUAL
HEAT EXPECTED.
AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
STARTING THE MORNING WITH RIVER VALLEY FOG IN PLACE ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS, IN ADDITION TO OTHER LOCATIONS WHERE SOILS REMAIN
DAMP FROM RECENT RAINFALL. ANY FOG WILL BURN OF QUICKLY AFTER
13Z GIVEN STRONG HEATING. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE 19/06Z TAF PERIOD UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE NORTHWEST AT 10KTS OR LESS.
RIVER VALLEY FOG WILL REDEVELOP TONIGHT, THOUGH INCREASING
CLOUDS MAY LIMIT ITS FORMATION.
OUTLOOK...
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN ON THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY, RESULTING IN SCATTERED SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN
THE FORM OF LOW VISIBILITIES DUE TO AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN, AS WELL
AS LOW CEILINGS, ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT. DAYTIME CONDITIONS WILL
MAINLY BE VFR OUTSIDE OF RAINFALL. IMPROVED FLYING CONDITIONS
WILL RETURN ON SUNDAY AS DRIER AIR ARRIVES ACROSS THE LOWER MID-
ATLANTIC.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...NF
AVIATION...NF
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