986
FXUS61 KRNK 181050
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
650 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
INCREASED POPS THIS MORNING IN WV AS LINE MOVES CLOSER OUT
CENTRAL WV. INCREASED WINDS AS WELL.
AVIATION UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. BREEZY AHEAD
OF THE FRONT AS WELL WITH INCREASE FIRE DANGER FOR THE NC
PIEDMONT.
2) DRY WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
BREEZY AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS WELL WITH INCREASE FIRE DANGER FOR
THE PIEDMONT.
LINE OF SHOWERS/STORMS MOVING ACROSS WV HAS ITS EYES SET ON
SOUTHEAST WV BETWEEN 7-9AM. A FEW STRONGER WIND GUST POTENTIALLY
SEVERE MAY REACH GREENBRIER COUNTY AND THE REST OF SOUTHEAST WV
IN THAT TIME FRAME, THEN MODEL SHOW WEAKENING TREND AS BEST
ENERGY/INSTABILITY STAY JUST WEST OF US. SOME LULL IN ACTIVITY
LATER THIS MORNING BEFORE MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP MIDDAY
INTO THE AFTERNOON.
DECENT MID-LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS WILL EXIST THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS OUR AREA. TO MID ATLANTIC. CONVECTION MAY VERY WELL START
PUSHING INTO OUR WV AREA AFTER 8AM. WE HAVE CONVECTIVE CIRRUS
BLOWOFF FROM UPSTREAM STORMS THIS MORNING, BUT MODELS DO SHOWING
CLEARING AFTER LATE MORNING, SO AMPLE SUNSHINE TO HEAT THE LOW
LEVELS AND INCREASE LAPSE RATES. TORNADO RISK TODAY IS LOW BUT
NON-ZERO. AS HEATING OCCURS DURING THE DAY, BOUNDARY LAYER
MIXING AS WELL AS VEERING AND WEAKENING WINDS AT 850 MB MAY
REDUCE TORNADO RISK. HOWEVER, AMPLE DEEP- LAYER SHEAR AND NEARLY
UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES WILL FAVOR BOTH CELLS AND FAST-
MOVING CLUSTERS OF STORMS PRODUCING DAMAGING GUSTS AND LOCALLY
SEVERE HAIL THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
THE SURFACE FRONT ARRIVES THIS AFTERNOON IN THE MOUNTAINS
SLIDING SOUTHEAST OF OUR CWA EARLY FRIDAY. STORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO DIMINISH SOMEWHAT BY LATE THURSDAY EVENING, BUT SHOWERS MAY
LINGER INTO FRIDAY MORNING ESPECIALLY IN NC. THE REMNANTS OF
ARTHUR WILL ALSO PUSH MOISTURE OUR WAY, AND HIGHER PWATS MAY
LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING CONCERNS. THIS MAY BE A CASE IF WE
GET SOME TRAINING CELLS. MAIN FLOODING THREAT WILL BE OVER THE
MOUNTAINS OF WV/FAR SW VA INTO NC. C
GRADIENT, NON-THUNDERSTORMS WINDS WILL ALSO BE PRETTY STRONG
FOR JUNE, ACTING MORE LIKE SPRING. 85H WINDS ARE FORECAST
BETWEEN 30-40KTS WHICH, IF MIXED TO THE SURFACE, WILL RESULT IN
WINDY CONDITIONS WITH SURFACE GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH. THOUGH SUB-
ADVISORY WINDS, THESE SPEEDS COULD STILL TOPPLE OUTDOOR
FURNITURE, LIKE DECK UMBRELLAS, AND CHAIRS. THE BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL ALSO COUPLE WITH WHAT IS EXPECTED TO BE A VERY
WARM DAY (ASSUMING CLOUDS DO NOT MUTE THE NUMBERS)...HIGHS INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 90S EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS AND THE ONGOING
EXTREME DROUGHT, CREATING HIGHER FIRE DANGER AND THE NEED TO
REFRAIN FROM ANY OPEN AIR BURNING.
IN SUMMARY, A CALL TO ACTION...
1. SECURE PATIO FURNITURE AND LOWER CANOPIES AND UMBRELLAS
2. PREP FOR POSSIBLE POWER OUTAGES
3. NO OPEN AIR BURNING
4. HAVE A WAY TO RECEIVE WARNINGS
5. WATCH THE SKY AND TAKE SHELTER IF A STORM APPROACHES OR A
WARNING IS ISSUED.
KEY MESSAGE 2: DRY WEEKEND BUT MORE STORM CHANCES EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS THE FRONT SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. MODELS
AGREE ON A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE MID-MS
VALLEY HEADING INTO MONDAY SWINGING THROUGH THE MOUNTAINS EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THIS FEATURE WITH THE FRONT AND GOOD MOISTURE
ADVECTION SHOULD PROVIDE ANOTHER OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS, BUT LIKE PREVIOUS SYSTEMS, FRONTS THAT COME FROM THE
NORTHWEST FAVOR THE MOUNTAINS (ESP WESTERN SLOPES) FOR RAINFALL
AND TO A MUCH LESSER EXTENT EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
STORMS MAY IMPACT LWB/BLF THIS MORNING IN THE 12-15Z TIME FRAME,
POSSIBLY REACHING BCB. WINDS FROM THE WEST WITH THESE STORMS
COULD GUST OVER 40KTS. THEN A LULL IN ACTIVITY BEFORE MORE
SHOWERS/STORMS FORM AROUND 15-18Z.
KEPT THE FORECAST MAINLY VFR OUTSIDE OF STORMS AND TRIED TO TIME
SOME OF THE STORMS AT BLF/LWB THIS AFTERNOON WITH VCTS
ELSEWHERE.
OUTSIDE OF STORMS, GRADIENT WINDS WILL BE GUSTING 20-30KTS.
ONCE THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS, AND MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF THE
REMNANTS OF ARTHUR EXPECT CIGS SINKING TO MVFR TO IFR AT MOST
SITES TONIGHT WITH SHOWERS. ANY THUNDER SHOULD START TO DIMINISH
BY LATE EVENING. WIND WILL ALSO WEAKEN LATER TONIGHT. COULD SEE
SOME IFR FOG AT BLF/LWB AS WELL LATE.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
SUB-VFR TO LAST THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING WITH SHOWERS EXITING TO
THE EAST AND SOUTH.
THEN VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE NORM FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS MAY RETURN TO THE
MOUNTAINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WITH INCREASING CHANCES INTO MONDAY
WITH SUB-VFR POTENTIAL.
OTHER SUB-VFR POSSIBILITIES MAY BE SOME LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING
MOUNTAIN VALLEY/RIVER FOG DURING THE WEEKEND.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...PM/SH/WP
AVIATION...DS/SH/WP
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