790
FXUS61 KRNK 191041
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
641 AM EDT SUN JUL 19 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE AVIATION FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
1) MORE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATER TODAY, AND
ADDITIONAL STORMS COULD OCCUR BY LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
2) TEMPERATURES SHOULD TURN MORE SEASONABLE BY THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK AFTER A FRONTAL PASSAGE.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...MORE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATER
TODAY, AND ADDITIONAL STORMS COULD OCCUR BY LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.
A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY POSITIONED ALONG THE OHIO RIVER AND
ENTERING WEST VIRGINIA AT THIS TIME. NOTABLE CLOUD COVER WILL
KEEP A LID ON INSTABILITY ACROSS MOST OF THE MOUNTAINS BY THIS
MORNING WITH SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS DECAYING TO THE WEST.
HOWEVER, MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE CAPE CLIMBING UP TO 1,500
J/KG ACROSS THE NC/VA BORDER BY MIDDAY TODAY, WHICH SHOULD ALLOW
MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. THE
SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE GREATEST ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINA
PIEDMONT TOWARDS THE EVENING WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AS THE
PRIMARY THREAT.
CONVECTION SHOULD WANE AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SUNDAY
NIGHT, AND THERE MAY BE A LULL IN ACTIVITY BY MONDAY MORNING
WITH SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE MOUNTAINS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
APPEAR MORE ISOLATED BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THEY WILL BE
CONFINED MOSTLY TO THE NC/VA BORDER WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD
FRONT STALLING ACROSS THE OUTER BANKS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
SHOULD SWEEP SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES BY LATE TUESDAY
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE STORMS THAT COULD BRING A DAMAGING
WIND GUST THREAT. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY SEEMS NOTABLY STRONGER
AND SHOULD PASS ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS BY WEDNESDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...TEMPERATURES SHOULD TURN MORE SEASONABLE BY THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AFTER A FRONTAL PASSAGE.
AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON WEDNESDAY, A CONSIDERABLE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TO BRING A NOTABLE
COOLING TREND. DEWPOINTS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 50S ALONG AND WEST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND INTO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT BY
THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE TAKES CONTROL. LOOK FOR LOW
TEMPERATURES TO FALL CLOSE TO THESE VALUES DURING THURSDAY
MORNING AND FRIDAY MORNING. IT WILL BE A NOTABLE BREAK FROM THE
HEAT AND HUMIDITY FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THIS WORKWEEK.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD TREND UPWARD TOWARDS THE WEEKEND WITH
SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
DIURNAL HEATING AND OROGRAPHICAL LIFT.
AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
CONSIDERABLE HIGH CLOUDS REMAIN ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN
MOUNTAINS, WHICH HAS KEPT FOG FORMATION AS MINIMAL. LOW STRATUS
SHOULD IMPACT BLF FOR THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES LATER TODAY, WINDS SHOULD SHIFT TOWARDS THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP BY
MIDDAY AS MOISTURE CONVERGES ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE. CONFIDENCE
IN THUNDER IS HIGHEST AT DAN WHERE VCTS WAS KEPT FOR LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE BY SUNDAY NIGHT. AS
THE COLD FRONT DEPARTS, SKIES SHOULD CLEAR TO ALLOW A GOOD
OPPORTUNITY FOR FOG BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
AFTER THE MORNING FOG DISSIPATES, VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD TAKE
PLACE THROUGH MOST OF MONDAY WITH ONLY LIMITED COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NC/VA
BORDER. ANOTHER COLD FRONT SHOULD ARRIVE BY LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY TO PROVIDE THE NEXT NOTABLE CHANCE OF STORMS AND
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN BY THURSDAY TO
ALLOW VFR CONDITIONS TO RESUME.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...PW
AVIATION...PW
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