081
FXUS61 KRNK 111838
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
238 PM EDT FRI SEP 11 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
FOLLOWED BY MORE WIDESPREAD AND MODERATE SHOWERS AND STORMS
TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT.
INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN A DRY PERIOD OF WEATHER MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, THEN MORE CHANCES FOR RAIN BEGINNING AGAIN NEXT
THURSDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SHOWERY AND STORMY PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: SHOWERY AND STORMY PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH
SUNDAY.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ERUPTED THIS AFTERNOON
IN RESPONSE TO SEVERAL MODES OF FORCING FOR ASCENT. A BAND OF
MID LEVEL VORTICITY WAS LOCATED FROM MARYLAND TO SOUTHERN OH TO
MO, ENDING WITH A SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE ALSO LOCATED NEAR MO.
THIS WAVE IS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST AND DEEPEN THE OVERALL SHORT
WAVE TROUGH TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AS IT DOES SO. AT THE
SURFACE, A COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM COASTAL VA AND SNAKED
THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA IN VA BEFORE STRETCHING TOWARDS THE
ARKLATEX.
THE FRONT WAS INTERACTING WITH MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR WITH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S IN THE
MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 80S TO 90S IN THE PIEDMONT. AS OF 2 PM,
SOUTH BOSTON HAD WARMED TO 96 DEGREES, WITH DANVILLE AT 94. DEW
POINTS WERE GENERALLY IN THE 60S WITH A FEW LOCATIONS AROUND 70.
WITH THE APPROACHING SHORT WAVE, THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
SHIFT SLOWLY SOUTH AND TRIGGER WIDESPREAD CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON. FOR TOMORROW, THE FRONT WILL MOVE BACK NORTHEAST AS A
WARM FRONT, BRINGING MODERATE RAIN TO THE ENTIRE AREA BEFORE IT
EXITS TO THE EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT. WE ARE
EXPECTING ONLY GENERAL THUNDER FOR SEVERE WEATHER PER SPC BOTH
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND AGAIN TOMORROW. HOWEVER, ISOLATED
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.
IN ADDITION, URBAN, SMALL STREAM, AND ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING
MAY BE POSSIBLE AS CONVECTION TRAINS ALONG THE FRONT AND WITH
REPEATED ROUNDS EXPECTED.
A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS MAY DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH, BUT NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING STRONG OR
ORGANIZED. THIS WOULD MAINLY IMPACT THE BLUE RIDGE EASTWARD.
BEHIND THIS FRONT, MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR ARRIVES FOR THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK, PERHAPS LASTING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A
LARGE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN. BY THURSDAY, WE WILL SEE A SIMILAR
SET UP TO THE CURRENT EVENT, WITH A SLOW-MOVING, STRUNG OUT
FRONT TO OUR NORTH BRINGING SEVERAL CHANCES FOR RAIN AND STORMS
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A FRONT IN THE REGION IS INTERACTING WITH INSTABILITY, AND WILL
CONTINUE TO TRIGGER STORMS THROUGH THE EVENING. HAVE INCLUDED
TSRA WHERE IT LOOKS MOST LIKELY, BUT ALL TERMINALS COULD SEE HIT
AND MISS SHRA/TSRA.
OVERNIGHT, THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS JUST TO OUR SOUTH, SO
MOST OF THE TERMINALS WILL SEE PERIODS OF LIFR/IFR STRATUS
BEGINNING AROUND 03-07Z AND LIFTING TO MVFR FOR MOST BY MID
MORNING. SOME PATCHY FOG IS LIKELY. THE SAME FRONT LIFTS
NORTHEAST AND THROUGH OUR REGION AGAIN TOMORROW INTO TOMORROW
NIGHT, BRINGING BETTER COVERAGE OF MODERATE RAIN, KEEPING
CEILINGS MVFR. SOME LIGHTNING WILL BE POSSIBLE, BUT STRONG
STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS TAPER OFF DURING THE EARLY HOURS OF
SUNDAY MORNING. A FEW SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
SUNDAY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. BEHIND THIS FRONT,
EXPECT A FEW DAYS OF DRIER CONDITIONS AND WIDESPREAD VFR
WEATHER
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SH
AVIATION...SH
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