717
FXUS61 KRNK 051039
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
639 AM EDT SAT SEP 5 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SEVERE STORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY,
WITH SEVERE WINDS AND SOME HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREATS WITH
THESE STORMS. THESE STORMS WILL PRIMARILY IMPACT AREAS
SOUTH OF I-64.
AVIATION UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
1) STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING.
A WESTWARD RETROGRADING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST
WILL PUSH BACK THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT HAS MAINTAINED ITSELF
OVER THE REGION OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. AS THIS OCCURS
TODAY, THE AMOUNT OF SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD DECREASE
AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RETREATS WEST. THIS WILL ALLOW STORMS
TO ALSO TRACK THROUGH THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST FROM PIECES
OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRACK SOUTHEAST ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. ALONG WITH THESE PIECES
OF UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE PROPAGATING SOUTHEAST ALONG THE MEAN
FLOW, A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT LOOKS TO SINK SOUTHWEST FROM THE
NORTHEAST THATS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH. THIS COLD FRONT WILL AID IN THE FORCING FOR STORMS
ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS TODAY.
THE ENVIRONMENT TODAY SUPPORTS STRONG DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ONCE
AGAIN ACROSS THE REGION WITH 1500-2000 J/KG OF SBCAPE, AND
1000-1400 J/KG OF DCAPE. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP IN THIS
ENVIRONMENT WILL LIKELY PRODUCE STRONG DAMAGING OUTFLOWS THROUGH
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE BIGGEST DIFFERENCE
TODAY IS THAT DEEP LAYER SHEAR LOOKS TO BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY, WITH 20-30 KNOTS OF 0-6KM DEEP LAYER
SHEAR FORECAST TODAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO MULTICELLULAR STORM
CLUSTERS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA THAT WILL LIKELY TRAVEL TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
BY SUNDAY, MODEL GUIDANCE BRINGS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH OF
THE AREA INTO SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA. THIS WILL PUT AN END TO
MOST STORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REGION; HOWEVER, LOW LEVEL
EASTERLY FLOW COMBINED WITH MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES
LOOK TO LEAD TO SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK LOOKS TO STAY DRY ACROSS THE REGION AS
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SLIDES BACK EAST ON MONDAY. THIS WILL
BRING A RETURN OF HOT TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE A FRONTAL PASSAGE ON FRIDAY LOOKS TO
BREAK DOWN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS.
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD OUTSIDE OF
ANY STORMS THAT MAY DEVELOP DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. FOG AND LOW STRATUS LOOK TO IMPACT LWB AGAIN
DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TODAY AND AGAIN
SUNDAY MORNING; HOWEVER, THESE RESTRICTIONS SHOULD DIMINISH
SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. WINDS OF AROUND 5-10 KNOTS TODAY LOOK TO
REMAIN OUT OF THE WEST/NORTHWEST FOR ALL TERMINALS, WITH GUSTS
UP TO 15-20 KNOTS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. AFTER 00 UTC, ONCE THE BACKDOOR FRONT PASSES, NORTHEAST
WINDS LOOK TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE VA PIEDMONT, WITH LYH AND DAN
DEVELOPING THESE WINDS LATE SATURDAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
A LINGERING THREAT FOR STORMS EXISTS SUNDAY PRIMARILY ACROSS
MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS NOT AS HIGH ON SUNDAY
AS COMPARED TO SATURDAY. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SUB VFR
CONDITIONS EACH MORNING WITH MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG AND IN AREAS
THAT RECEIVE RAIN. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY-
WEDNESDAY.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...EB
AVIATION...EB
CLIMATE...PM
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