695
FXUS61 KRNK 221950
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
250 PM EST WED JAN 22 2020
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVERHEAD THROUGH THURSDAY, KEEPING WEATHER
DRY AND WINDS LIGHT. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON FRIDAY, BRINGING
WITH IT SOME WINTRY MIX FOR EARLY FRIDAY THAT BECOMES RAIN LATER
THAT AFTERNOON. AFTER THE SYSTEM EXITS SATURDAY NIGHT, THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 230 PM EST WEDNESDAY...
AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE ON TRACK TO BE IN THE LOW- TO MID-40S, WITH LOWS
TONIGHT RETURNING TO THE 20S. SOME HIGH CLOUDS HAVE BEGUN TO
ENTER FROM THE WEST AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO OVERNIGHT, AS
MOISTURE IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE ENTERS THE REGION AHEAD OF THE
NEXT FRONT TO AFFECT THE AREA. OTHERWISE CALM AND MOSTLY CLEAR
CONDITIONS REIGN UNDER THE HIGH PRESSURE REGIME IN THE MID-
ATLANTIC THROUGH THURSDAY.
THURSDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BRING INCREASED CLOUDINESS AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING FRONT THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE LOW ENTERING
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION
SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING, HOWEVER.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 200 PM WEDNESDAY...
QUIET WEATHER ENDS COME THURSDAY NIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
MOISTURE STARTS TO ENTER THE NC MOUNTAINS AND SW VA AT/JUST BEFORE
DAYBREAK FRIDAY AND CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
MORNING, BEFORE BECOMING WIDESPREAD FOR THE AFTERNOON AND INTO
FRIDAY EVENING.
PRECIPITATION WILL BE STARTING OUT AS A WINTERY MIX, WITH A TRIO OF
SLEET, FREEZING RAIN, AND RAIN. AS A WARM NOSE ALOFT PUSHES IN FROM
THE SOUTH, PRECIP TYPE WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO AN ALL RAIN
EVENT THROUGH THE MORNING. CURRENT TIMING PLACES IT TO HAVE CHANGED
OVER TO AN ALL RAIN EVENT JUST PRIOR TO LUNCH TIME. PARTS OF NW
GREENBRIER LOOK TO BE ONE OF THE FEW PLACES WHERE THIS EVENT COULD
START AS SNOW AND CHANGE OVER TO A SLEET MIX BY MID DAY. ONE THING
TO KEEP IN MIND WITH IMPACTS FOR THIS WINTRY MIX COMPARED TO LAST
WEEK'S SYSTEM IS THAT SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER AT THE
START, GIVEN OUR RECENT COLD WEATHER.
AFTER THE END OF THE WINTRY MIX LATE MORNING FRIDAY, THE ALL RAIN
EVENT TAKES HOLD, WITH RAIN TOTALS BEING ROUGHLY ~1" THE GREATEST
AMOUNTS WILL BE DOWN IN THE NC MOUNTAINS AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
WHERE AMOUNTS SHOULD BE CLOSER TO 1.5". JUST PRIOR TO THE HEAVIEST
RAIN, A STOUT SOUTHERLY JET SHOULD PROVIDE WINDY CONDITIONS FROM THE
SE.
AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHES EASTWARD EARLY SATURDAY, MOISTURE
QUICKLY RUNS OUT BEHIND IT. AS OF NOW, ANY LINGERING MOISTURE WILL
HELP PRODUCE A BRIEF WINDOW OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THAT WILL
CONTRIBUTE VERY LIGHT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS (LESS THAN 0.5") FROM THE
BLUE RIDGE AND WEST EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT. BY SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING,
SNOWFALL BECOMES CONFINED TO THE WESTERN SLOPES, WHERE UPSLOPE
SNOWFALL WILL PERSIST. AS THE MOISTURE RUNS OUT DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY, GUIDANCE IS STILL ON TRACK FOR SKIES TO START GRADUALLY
CLEARING AFTER LUNCHTIME FOR THOSE ALONG AND EAST OF THE
FOOTHILLS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 200 PM WEDNESDAY...
WHILE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS DIRECTLY FROM OUR UPCOMING STORM EVENT WILL
GENERALLY BE 2" (HIGHER AMOUNTS COULD APPROACH 4") FOR WESTERN
GREENBRIER, PERSISTENT UPSLOPE FLOW SUNDAY, MONDAY, AND EVEN INTO
TUESDAY, THANKS TO A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR FROM THE NW, WILL
CERTAINLY CONTRIBUTE TO GREATER AMOUNTS. BY MONDAY, THAT SNOWFALL
WILL BE ISOLATED ONLY TO THE HIGHEST SECTIONS OF THE COUNTY.
WHILE THE WESTERN SLOPES CONTINUE TO DEAL WITH CLOUD COVER AND SNOW
SHOWERS FROM UPSLOPE FLOW MONDAY AND TUESDAY, THE REST OF THE REGION
WILL GRADUALLY HAVE HEIGHTS RISE AND TEMPERATURES SLOWLY
REBOUNDING. BY TUESDAY, MANY WILL ALREADY BE BACK IN THE 40S, WITH
AREAS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE CLIMBING FOR THE 50S. CLOUD COVER WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT TAKES AIM
TO MOVE IN LATE NEXT WEEK...WHICH SEEMS TO BE A TREND WE CAN NOT
SEEM TO SHAKE RECENTLY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE.
AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 1230 PM EST WEDNESDAY...
WIDESPREAD VFR IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CLEAR SKIES GIVE WAY TO SOME
HIGH CLOUDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING, BUT EXPECT
CEILINGS TO REMAIN VFR. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BE THE
STANDARD IN THIS PERIOD.
CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST IS HIGH.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
A WINTRY MIX WILL ARRIVE EARLY FRIDAY AND TRANSITION TO RAIN AS
FRIDAY PROGRESSES. EXPECT SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WITH THIS PRECIPITATION
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ANTICIPATE LINGERING MVFR CLOUD BASES ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS INTO SUNDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
VERY GOOD DRYING ANTICIPATED TODAY. A FULL DAY OF SUN IS
EXPECTED WITH HUMIDITY MINIMUMS RANGING FROM 15 TO 25 PERCENT.
WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE PASSING DIRECTLY OVERHEAD EXPECT STRONG
SUBSIDENCE WITH POOR DISPERSION AND LIMITED MIXING.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...VFJ
NEAR TERM...VFJ
SHORT TERM...PW/RR
LONG TERM...RR
AVIATION...PM/VFJ
FIRE WEATHER...PM
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