827
FXUS61 KRNK 120000
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
800 PM EDT SUN OCT 11 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SEVERE AND FLOOD THREAT HAS ENDED ACROSS THE AREA.
FORECAST UPDATED WITH RECENT GUIDANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SHOWER CHANCES NOW MAINLY CONFINED TO THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS.
2) DRY WEATHER INTO MIDWEEK WITH TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: SHOWER CHANCES NOW MAINLY CONFINED TO THE WESTERN
MOUNTAINS.
TONIGHT AND EARLY MORNING MONDAY SHOULD SEE ANY LINGERING RAIN
CHANCES CONFINED TO THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS FOR MORE OF AN
UPSLOPE COMPONENT. WILL SEE SOME FOG AND PLENTY OF STRATUS FOR
THE MOUNTAINS. MONDAY DAYTIME LOOKS TO BE DRY UNDER NW FLOW BUT
QUITE GUSTY. THE GRADIENT WINDS SHOULD WEAKEN BY LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING.
KEY MESSAGE 2...DRY WEATHER INTO MIDWEEK WITH TEMPS ABOVE
NORMAL.
BUILDING RIDGE BEHIND ISAIAS WILL BRING TEMPERATURES BACK TO
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MIDWEEK. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND FRONT LOOK
TO ARRIVE ANYTIME BETWEEN THURSDAY AND SATURDAY WITH MODEL
DIFFERENCES ABOUNDING. ENSEMBLES/NBM FAVOR SOME RAIN CHANCES IN
THE MOUNTAINS BY THE END OF THE WEEK, WITH LIMITED CHANCES
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND TEMPS DROPPING BELOW NORMAL NEXT
WEEKEND.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE FOR KBLF AND KLWB TONIGHT INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. MANY OF THE SITES SHOULD CONTINUE TO HAVE
IFR/MVFR CIGS AND POSSIBLY LOWER TO LIFR. THE MOUNTAIN SITES MAY
CONTINUE THE LOWER CIGS INTO MONDAY MORNING, WHILE THE OTHERS
SHOULD HAVE SOME SCATTERING/IMPROVEMENT BY LATER TONIGHT/EARLY
MORNING. INITIAL WINDS NE TO SE UNDER 10 KTS THEN SHIFTING WEST
TO NW LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. MAGNITUDES SHOULD
INCREASE MONDAY TO 10-16 KTS GUSTING 20-26 KTS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
AFTER MONDAY MORNING IT SHOULD BE VFR INTO MIDWEEK, WITH SOME
POTENTIAL SUB-VFR CIGS IN THE WV MOUNTAINS THURSDAY ALONG WITH
A FEW SHOWERS.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AB/SH
AVIATION...AB/SH/WP
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