821
FXUS61 KRNK 301758
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
158 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION FORECAST UPDATED.
FORECAST DISCUSSION UPDATED WITH CONCERN OF FLOODING HAZARD NEXT
WEEK.
KEY MESSAGES
1) RETURN OF THUNDERSTORMS NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: RETURN OF THUNDERSTORMS NEXT WEEK.
ENJOY THE CLEAR SKIES WHILE IT LASTS AS RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
LIKELY TO RETURN AS EARLY AS SATURDAY NIGHT. A MID-LEVEL LOW WILL
PASS THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS AND SWOOP SOUTHEASTWARD AND
HEAD TOWARDS THE APPALACHIANS. THE BIG PICTURE IS THAT THIS SYSTEM
WILL LIKELY PROVIDE STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND ADVECT WARM AND
MOIST AIR INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST. (DEW POINTS MAY
RETURN INTO THE 60S AND 70S BY THE WEEKEND). MODEL GUIDANCE
EXHIBIT A ROBUST TRANSPORT OF VORTICITY THROUGH THE REGION FOR
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK WHILE THIS LOW PERSISTS.
UNFORTUNATELY, MODELS THEN START TO DISAGREE ON HOW THIS LOW
EVOLVES. A POSSIBLE SCENARIO IS THE LOW DIPS SO SOUTHWARD THAT
IT DECOUPLES ITSELF FROM THE MEAN FLOW AND REMAINS STAGNANT OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE UNITED STATES. ANOTHER SUGGESTED
SCENARIO IS THAT PART OF THE LOW CUTS OFF BUT HAS SOME OF ITS
ENERGY PULLED AWAY NORTHEAST BY A STRONGER TROUGH IN CANADA. THE
MAIN CONCERN OF THIS FORECAST IS WHETHER THE LOW DECIDES TO
DETACH ITSELF OR NOT. IF IT DOES, CONFIDENCE OF SEVERAL ROUNDS
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR OUR AREA WILL INCREASE. WHILE
THE SEVERE THREAT LOOKS TO BE ON THE LOWER SIDE DUE TO LAPSE
RATES OF 5.0-5.5 C/KM, THERE IS A FLOOD CONCERN FOR NEXT WEEK.
THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER HAS ALREADY ISSUED A MARGINAL RISK
FOR PARTS OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY, BUT IT IS CURRENTLY
TOO EARLY TO KNOW HOW MUCH RAIN WE MAY GET AND WHAT THE
POTENTIAL IMPACTS MAY BE. LASTLY, BECAUSE MODELS TEND TO
STRUGGLE WITH CUTOFF LOWS AND THE ALREADY PRESENT DISCREPANCIES,
THE FORECAST FOR THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK IS UNCLEAR.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
CLEAR SKIES AND QUIET WEATHER FOR MOST OF THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS
HIGHER PRESSURE ROAMS OVER US. KLWB WILL LIKELY HAVE VISIBILITIES
REDUCED DOWN TOWARDS HALF A MILE AS EARLY MORNING FOG RETURNS
FRIDAY. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS KBCB MAY SEE SOME EARLY
MORNING FOG BRIEFLY BUT CONFIDENCE ON THIS IS LOW. OTHERWISE
ALL TERMINALS ARE VFR WITH CLEAR SKIES, LIGHT WINDS WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 15-20 KTS, AND A GRADUAL INCREASE OF CLOUDS
BY 18Z FRIDAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
ANOTHER ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BRING ALL AIRPORTS AWAY FROM VFR
STARTING SATURDAY NIGHT. A MID-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING
NUMEROUS OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK. SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL LOOKS TO BE LOW BUT WIND
GUSTS OF 30-40 KTS MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS AND
VISIBILITIES WILL BE SERIOUSLY REDUCED WHILE THIS STORM ACTIVITY
PERSISTS.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CG
AVIATION...CG
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