120
FXUS61 KRNK 201029
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
629 AM EDT MON JUL 20 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE LOWERED A TOUCH FOR TODAY AS A BROKEN MID
LEVEL CLOUD DECK LOOKS TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA.
AVIATION UPDATED FOR 06Z.
KEY MESSAGES
1) MORE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THE NEXT 3 DAYS, WITH
TUESDAY HAVING THE BEST CHANCE.
2) TEMPERATURES SHOULD TURN MORE SEASONABLE BY THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK AFTER A FRONTAL PASSAGE.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...MORE STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY TUESDAY.
WITH A MOIST AIRMASS REMAINING OVER THE REGION FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS, THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY, TUESDAY FOR MOST OF THE AREA, AND
WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. WITH MINIMAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY, THE MAIN THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
STRONG TO SEVERE WINDS. SBCAPE VALUES ONLY LOOK TO INCREASE TO
AROUND 1500-2000 J/KG THROUGH PEAK HEATING THIS AFTERNOON AS A
MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK LOOKS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION. THIS
LOOKS TO INHIBIT SOME DESTABILIZATION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. NEVERTHELESS, DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S
ACROSS THE AREA WILL AID IN WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS, AND ALONG THE
BLUE RIDGE, WHICH SHOULD PUSH EAST INTO THE PIEDMONT THROUGH
THE EVENING.
BY TUESDAY, A STRONG SUMMER TIME FRONT LOOKS TO PUSH THROUGH THE
AREA THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTING
SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA AND THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL FIRE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REGION, WITH ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER
LOOKING POSSIBLE. WHILE WIND AND HAIL CURRENTLY LOOK TO REMAIN
THE GREATEST THREATS, THERE IS A SMALL TORNADO THREAT NORTH OF
460 AS LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE ELEVATED AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WITH
THE SHORTWAVE PUSHING INTO THE REGION, DEEP LAYER SHEAR LOOKS TO
INCREASE INTO THE 30-40 KNOT RANGE, AND SBCAPE VALUES LOOK TO
INCREASE INTO THE 2200-2700 J/KG RANGE BY THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. THE LARGEST UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME, IS THE
OVERALL TIMING OF THE FRONT ON TUESDAY. CAM GUIDANCE CURRENTLY
HAS IT ARRIVING BEYOND PEAK DIURNAL HEATING, WHICH MAY LIMIT
SOME SEVERITY OF STORMS ACROSS THE REGION. IF THE FRONT ARRIVES
EARLIER IN THE EVENING, EXPECT TO SEE MORE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
ACROSS THE REGION, BUT IF THESE STORMS ARRIVE LATER TOWARDS THE
EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS, THE SEVERITY OF THESE STORMS WILL BE MUCH
MORE REDUCED.
ON WEDNESDAY, THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT LOOKS TO GET HUNG UP IN A
EAST/WEST ORIENTATION ALONG THE VA/NC BORDER PROVIDING A FOCAL
POINT FOR SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY PRIMARILY SOUTH OF 460.
SPECIFICS ON SEVERITY AND IMPACTS EXPECTED WILL COME WITH FUTURE
UPDATES.
KEY MESSAGE 2...TEMPERATURES SHOULD TURN MORE SEASONABLE BY THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AFTER A FRONTAL PASSAGE.
STRONG SUMMERTIME FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT
WILL BRING A LARGE PATTERN CHANGE TO THE AREA STARTING
WEDNESDAY. BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT, UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING LOOKS TO SETTLE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH MUCH
OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP 500MB HEIGHTS MUCH LOWER ACROSS
THE REGION LEADING TO OVERALL COOLER TEMPERATURES. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE COMING OUT OF CANADA WILL ALSO LOWER DEWPOINTS INTO THE
50S AND 60S WHICH WILL MAKE IT FEEL MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE
OUTSIDE DURING THE PEAK HEAT OF THE DAY. HIGHS LOOK TO ONLY
CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS, AND
MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT STARTING WEDNESDAY, AND
CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE TEMPERATURES LOOK TO INCREASE
AGAIN ON SUNDAY OF NEXT WEEK. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
BEYOND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY NIGHT WILL PRIMARILY BE
RELEGATED TO MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS, AND LOOK TO REMAIN ISOLATED,
WHERE OROGRAPHICAL LIFT CAN ENHANCE DEVELOPMENT DURING PEAK
HEATING.
AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING FOG HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE AREA, WITH MANY TERMINALS REPORTING IFR TO LIFR
CONDITIONS. THESE RESTRICTIONS WILL LIKELY LINGER FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS.
NORTHEAST WIND LOOKS TO REMAIN AT PIEDMONT AND ROA/BCB
TERMINALS TODAY. THIS WIND LOOKS TO TRANSITION TO SOUTHEASTERLY
BY 18 UTC, WITH BLF AND LWB MAINTAINING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. OVERALL, WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN AROUND 5
KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LOOKS TO REMAIN SCATTERED IN
NATURE TODAY, WITH MULTIPLE POSSIBLE ROUNDS THROUGHOUT THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING TIMEFRAME. GIVEN THE SCATTERED NATURE
SOME VCTS WAS INCLUDED FOR ALL TERMINALS. HAMMERING DOWN OF THE
EXACT TIMING OF THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY OCCUR ONCE THEY'VE
DEVELOPED AND START TO PUSH ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THIS MAY
GIVE MORE CONFIDENCE IN LATER AMENDMENTS ADDING IN TSRA. VCTS
WAS INCLUDED FOR NOW DUE TO COVERAGE BEING SCATTERED IN NATURE,
IF STORM COVERAGE WAS GOING TO REMAIN MORE ISOLATED, IT WOULD
NOT HAVE BEEN INCLUDED IN THIS TAF UPDATE.
MVFR TO IFR CIGS AND VSBYS LOOK TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT ONCE AGAIN
AT ALL TERMINALS AS A STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS OVER THE REGION.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD TAKE PLACE THROUGH MOST OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD, BUT THERE WILL BE SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN STORMS WITH BEST
CHANCE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT, AND WITH ANY LATE NIGHT
FOG/STRATUS.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...EB
AVIATION...EB/WP
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