345
FXUS61 KRNK 101838
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
238 PM EDT THU SEP 10 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN LOOKS MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AND AGAIN SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY EVENING BEFORE ENDING LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING.
AVIATION FORECAST UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SHOWERY AND STORMY PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: SHOWERY AND STORMY PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT.
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION TODAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS OPENS THE DOOR FOR A
MORE ACTIVE PATTERN OF WEATHER INCLUDING NUMEROUS CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS MID LEVEL TROUGHING DIPS INTO THE
AREA FROM THE NORTH. A COLD FRONT WAS SITUATED OVER THE OH
VALLEY AND CONTINUED TO SHIFT SLOWLY SOUTH. A SWATH OF MID LEVEL
ENERGY WAS HELPING TO TRIGGER NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS KY, WV,
AND PARTS OF NORTHERN VA.
SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL REACH THE MOUNTAINS OF SW VA THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, HOWEVER THE BETTER
FORCING FOR ASCENT STILL REMAINS TO OUR NORTH FOR THE AFTERNOON.
CAMS SHOW REPEATED ROUNDS OF RAIN DEVELOP AND MOVE EAST AHEAD
OF AND ALONG THE FRONT WHICH WILL ESSENTIALLY STALL NEAR OR JUST
NORTH OF THE WV/VA BORDER OVERNIGHT. EXPECTING MOST OF THE
HEAVIER RAINFALL TO BE JUST NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA, BUT
REPEATED MODERATE RAINFALL MAY OCCUR OVER THE GREENBRIER VALLEY
AND PERHAPS PART OF THE SOUTHERN SHENANDOAH VALLEY ALONG THE
FRONT WHERE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL BE MAXIMIZED. THESE ARE
THE MOST LIKELY SPOTS FOR ANY FLOODING ISSUES THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. OVERALL THE SEVERE THREAT LOOKS LOW AND WE
REMAIN IN A MARGINAL RISK PER SPC, WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN
CONCERN WITH ANY STRONGER CELLS.
THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA TOMORROW BEFORE STALLING IN THE CAROLINAS.
EXPECT HEAVIER AND MORE CONCENTRATED ACTIVITY NEAR AND ALONG THE
BLUE RIDGE WITH THE FRONT IN THE AREA TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WE SHOULD SEE HIGHER RAINFALL RATES AND AN INCREASED
CHANCE FOR TRAINING STORMS POSSIBLY LEADING TO URBAN AND FLASH
FLOODING. WITH SO MUCH CLOUD COVER, ONLY WEAKER STORMS ARE
EXPECTED.
A LARGE BATCH OF RAIN IS IN STORE FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AREAWIDE, AS A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE APPROACHES
AND LIFTS THE FRONT NORTH. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SHIFT
EAST OF THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT. AGAIN WE WILL MAINLY BE CONCERNED
WITH A FLOODING THREAT, ESPECIALLY WHERE WE RECEIVE HIGHER
RAINFALL AMOUNTS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY LOOK QUIETER WITH MOSTLY DRY WEATHER, AND
THIS QUIET STRETCH MAY EVEN LAST LONGER THAN THAT. WE WILL SEE A
SIMILAR SET UP WITH A SLOW-MOVING, STRUNG OUT FRONT TO OUR
NORTH FOR MID WEEK INTO THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
A COLD FRONT OVER THE OH VALLEY WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH AND NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH FRIDAY. ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TOMORROW MORNING WILL MAINLY IMPACT
BLF AND LWB WITH SUB-VFR CONDITIONS, AND POSSIBLY BRIEFLY AT OUR
MOUNTAIN TERMINALS INCLUDING BCB, ROA, AND LYH. ALL TERMINALS
WILL SEE MORE ACTIVITY BEGINNING TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HAVE INCLUDED SHRA/TSRA WHERE AND WHEN RAIN CHANCES WERE
HIGHEST. WIDESPREAD FOG AND/OR STRATUS IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND
TOMORROW MORNING WITH THE FRONT IN THE AREA. SOME OF THE STRATUS
AND FOG WILL BE LIFR TO IFR MAINLY FOR THE MOUNTAINS.
WESTERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO THE NW TOMORROW MORNING AS
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THIS WILL HAPPEN FIRST IN THE MOUNTAINS,
SPREADING TO THE PIEDMONT TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GUSTS
HAVE BEEN IN THE 15 TO 25 KT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON, AND THESE TO
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT TO LESS THAN 10 KTS. TOMORROW, EXPECT LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS, WITH MORE OF AN EASTERLY COMPONENT FOR THE
PIEDMONT IN THE AFTERNOON.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
EXPECT MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT AS THE FRONT LIFTS THROUGH AS A WARM FRONT. MOST OF THE
RAIN SHOULD END BY 13/03Z OR VERY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
WIDESPREAD SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN, STRATUS, AND SOME FOG ARE EXPECTED WITH THE SYSTEM. WINDS
MAY BE GUSTY AND ERRATIC NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. DRIER, VFR WEATHER
IS ANTICIPATED FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SH
AVIATION...SH
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