782
FXUS61 KRNK 062319
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
720 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION AND FORECAST DISCUSSION UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
KEY MESSAGES 1: PERIODS OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: PERIODS OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK.
KRNK SOUNDING SHOWS A PWAT OF 1.63 INCHES THIS MORNING, WHICH IS
STATISTICALLY ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE CLIMATOLOGICALLY FOR
THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. GIVEN THIS ABOVE NORMAL PWATS, AFTERNOON
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE ABLE TO PRODUCE
EXTREMELY EFFICIENT RAINFALL RATES ACROSS THE REGION, WITH WARM
RAIN PROCESSES LIKELY OCCURRING WITH SOME STORM ACTIVITY. WHILE
A SURFACE STATIONARY FRONT IS SITUATED NORTH OF THE REGION
ACROSS THE PENNSYLVANIA AND MARYLAND BORDER TODAY, THERE IS A
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE THAT IS WEST OF THE REGION
ACROSS WESTERN TENNESSEE AND ARKANSAS TODAY THAT WILL PROVIDE
SOME DIVERGENCE ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION.
ALSO VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS A MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECK THAT HAS MOVED
ACROSS AREAS PRIMARILY WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. THIS CLOUD DECK
IS MOVING TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST, AND HAS HALTED DAYTIME HEATING
OVER REGIONS IT HAS MOVED OVER. THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME
COMPLICATIONS IN DEVELOPMENT OF INSTABILITY THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AS SURFACE HEATING HAS BECOME LIMITED. OUT EAST ACROSS
THE PIEDMONTS OF VA/NC, CLEAR SKIES HAVE ALLOWED TEMPERATURES
TO CURRENTLY REACH THE LOW 90S, WHICH WILL CERTAINLY SUPPORT
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TODAY. GIVEN THIS TREND, THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN STORM DEVELOPMENT FOR THIS AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY
WITH CAM GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE HRRR, RRFS, NAM3K, AND OTHERS
SHOWING DEVELOPING STORMS WHERE THE AFOREMENTIONED MID LEVEL
CLOUD DECK IS LIMITING INSTABILITY. REGARDLESS, SBCAPE VALUES IN
THE 2000 J/KG RANGE HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED ACROSS EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BASED OFF OF THE SPC MESOANALYS IS
SUGGESTING THAT ENOUGH INSTABILITY EXISTS FOR STORMS TO FEED
OFF OF THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY BE LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING WITH THE PWATS MENTIONED ABOVE; HOWEVER, STRONG GUSTY
WINDS UP TO 60 MPH CAN’T BE RULED OUT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT WHERE DCAPE VALUES ARE STILL IN T HE 700-800 J/KG
RANGE. WITH THE PWATS MENTIONED ABOVE, RAINFALL RATES IN THE 2-4
INCH PER HOUR RATE WILL BE COMMON, AND LOCALIZED AREAS MAY SEE
TOTALS UP TO 3-4 INCHES EACH DAY THIS WEEK WITH STORMS THAT
DEVELOP AND START TRAINING OR GET HUNG UP ON THE TERRAIN OF THE
BLUE RIDGE.
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE SLOWLY PUSHES EAST ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, IT WILL CONTINUE TO LEAD TO INCREASED
DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND FORCING FOR ASCENT ACROSS THE REGION. THIS
WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY BOTH DAYS WITH A LOW POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE
ACTIVITY GIVEN THE LACK OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR, WITH ONLY 10-15
KNOTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR FORECAST. STORM MOTIONS WILL ALSO LIKELY BE
THIS SLOW, WHICH WILL ONLY EXACERBATE THE FLASH FLOOD
POTENTIAL, ESPECIALLY SINCE PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE
THE 90TH PERCENTILE.
OVERALL, EXPECT DAILY SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE ACROSS THE REGION, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN NEAR
SEASONAL VALUES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, WITH HOTTER
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S RETURNING FOR THE PIEDMONT
BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
LOOKING AHEAD TO THIS COMING WEEKEND, ANOTHER COLD FRONT LOOKS TO
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST, WHICH WILL LIKELY BRING CONTINUED
AND INCREASED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
REGION.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
MAINLY VFR THIS EVENING OUTSIDE ANY SHOWERS/STORMS THAT ARE WIDELY
SCATTERED. HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN BCB HAVING A STORM IN THE 00-01Z,
TIME FRAME WITH OTHERS AT PROB30. SHOWERS FADE AFTER 04Z, AND
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SUB-VFR CIGS/VSBYS LATE TONIGHT WITH INCREASED
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. HIGHER CONFIDENCE AT LWB/BCB HAVING IFR OR LOWER
CIGS/VSBYS.
VFR AFTER 14Z TUESDAY WITH MORE SCATTERING OF STORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON.
WINDS STAY LIGHT AND MAINLY SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST OUTSIDE ANY
STORMS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK…
SCATTERED, MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
COULD CONTINUE FOR EACH DAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK.
HEAVY DOWNPOURS, GUSTY WINDS, AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE ALL
POSSIBLE IN ANY OF THE STRONGER STORMS.
OTHERWISE, MOST OF THE TIME WILL FEATURE VFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES EXCEPT FOR ANY RESTRICTIONS DURING CONVECTION OR AT
NIGHT WITH ANY RIVER VALLEY FOG.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...EB
AVIATION...WP
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page