025
FXUS61 KRNK 272336
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
736 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH #247 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9PM FOR WV/VA
PRIMARILY EAST OF I-77, ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST.
KEY MESSAGES
KEY MESSAGE 1: SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT.
KEY MESSAGE 2: THERE IS A FLASH FLOOD RISK TODAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT.
SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN ONGOING
ACROSS PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING. THERE
HAVE BEEN REPORTS OF DOWNED TREES, AND THE STORMS HAVE BEEN
EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS. THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES
FOR A FEW MORE HOURS, AND THE CURRENT SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
EXPIRES AT 9 PM. STRONG TO SEVERE GUSTS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
WIND DAMAGE ARE THE PRIMARY HAZARD, BUT ISOLATED HAIL MAY ALSO
OCCUR.
30-40 KT OF MID-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW WILL PROMOTE RELATIVELY FAST
MOVING STORM CELLS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. UPPER SHORT WAVE
TROUGH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY ALONG WITH EAST-WEST ORIENTED FRONT
ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR
ORGANIZED STORM DEVELOPMENT. IN ADDITION, EXPECTING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE... ALL ACTIVITY
MOVING EAST AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE EVENING.
MODERATE INSTABILITY (MLCAPE 1500 J/KG) IS BEING FORECAST ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PART OF OUR CWA COUPLED WITH 30-40 KT OF WESTERLY
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT A MIX OF MULTICELLS AND
MARGINAL SUPERCELL STRUCTURES IS ANTICIPATED ALONG/SOUTH OF THE
FRONT, WITH SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN SEVERE RISK. SOME
HAIL COULD ALSO OCCUR WITH THE STRONGEST CORES.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL WANE BY MIDNIGHT OR SO,
BUT EXPECTING FOG TO DEVELOP FOR A FEW HOURS THURSDAY MORNING.
CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT AS IT DROPS TO THE
SOUTH TO BRING DRY AND QUIET WEATHER TO END THE WORK WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 2: THERE IS A FLASH FLOOD RISK TODAY.
RAIN HAS BEEN PLENTIFUL THE LAST SEVEN DAYS. WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER (PWAT) VALUES AOA 1.50 ANY DEEP CONVECTION WILL BE RAIN
EFFICIENT PROMOTING RAIN RATES OF 2-4". ORGANIZED STORMS WILL
HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO PRODUCE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL, SO BE ON THE
LOOKOUT FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. GIVEN THE RELATIVELY FAST
STORM CELL MOVEMENT, EXPECTING SOMEWHAT LOWER RESIDENCE TIME OF
THE HEAVY RAIN CORES, SO UNLESS WE HAVE TRAINING CELLS, RAINFALL
TOTALS SHOULD GENERALLY BE HELD UNDER AN INCH. THAT SAID, HIGH
RAIN RATES CAN STILL QUICKLY TRANSLATE INTO RAPID RUNOFF AND
LOCALIZED FLOODING.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FROM THIS AFTERNOON WILL
CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS, AND THEN TRANSITION TO ISOLATED
SHOWERS, AS THE AREA LOSES DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY. ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH BEFORE 08Z, EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING, BUT LOW CLOUDS WILL SETTLE IN OVER THE WESTERN
TERMINALS, PARTICULARLY FOR KLWB AND KBLF. AREAS OF PATCHY FOG
COULD DEVELOP FOR A FEW HOURS THURSDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY IN
AREAS THAT RECEIVED RAIN TODAY. CEILINGS WILL LIFT AND FOG WILL
DISSIPATE AFTER 12Z THURSDAY, AND CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO VFR
AREAWIDE BY MID MORNING. SOME AFTERNOON CUMULUS MAY DEVELOP, BUT
EXPECTING SKC FOR MOST BY 20Z OR SO.
WESTERLY WINDS TODAY WILL TURN NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY THURSDAY
AFTER A FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN. SPEEDS WILL MOSTLY BE 10 KNOTS OR LESS, WITH THE
OCCASIONAL GUST BETWEEN 15 TO 20 KNOTS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT THURSDAY AFTERNOON,
BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN IMPACTS TO AREA TERMINALS TO INCLUDE
IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK, AS HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS A FEW DAYS OF QUIET WEATHER, THOUGH
FOG REMAINS POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A FRONT STARTS
TO APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH BY THE WEEKEND, BRINGING
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE STORMS TO THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK, WHICH
WILL ALSO BRING MORE CHANCES FOR SCATTERED PRECIPITATION AND
POSSIBLE SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AS/PM
AVIATION...AS
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