663
FXUS61 KRNK 132356
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
756 PM EDT MON JUL 13 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.
EVENING AVIATION UPDATE COMPLETED.
KEY MESSAGES
1) HEAVY RAIN THREAT DECREASING, LINGERING SHOWERS THROUGH
TONIGHT.
2) DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH SUMMER-LIKE
TEMPERATURES FOR MID TO LATE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: HEAVY RAIN THREAT DECREASING, LINGERING SHOWERS
THROUGH TONIGHT.
A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO BE OFF TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS
SOUTH CAROLINA, WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS. COMBINED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND AN
EASTERLY FLOW OF SURFACE MOISTURE FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN, THANKS TO
A HIGH OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST, IT IS A SETUP FOR SLOW-MOVING
SHOWERS. THE UPPER TROUGH IS BEGINNING TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA,
WITH DRIER AIR FROM THE NORTH SLOWLY FILTERING IN, ALLOWING SKIES TO
CLEAR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. LINGERING SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING ALONG/SOUTH OF US-460, BUT REMAIN SCATTERED IN NATURE. THE
FLOOD THREAT IS ESSENTIALLY OVER AT THIS POINT, BARRING ANY RAIN
FALLING IN THE HARDEST HIT AREAS THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD IN TONIGHT,
CONTINUING TO PUSH THE DISTURBANCE OVER THE CAROLINAS OFF TO THE
SOUTH AND WEST, WITH RAIN TAPERING OFF COMPLETELY AREA-WIDE BY
TOMORROW MORNING.
KEY MESSAGE 2: DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH
SUMMER-LIKE TEMPERATURES FOR MID TO LATE WEEK.
ONCE THE RAIN ENDS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, HIGH PRESSURE WILL SIT ACROSS
THE MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, KEEPING RAIN CHANCES
NEAR ZERO EACH DAY. CLEARING SKIES WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO
REBOUND INTO THE 80S FOR TUESDAY, AND INTO THE 80S/90S FOR THE REST
OF THE WEEK. HIGHS COULD REACH NEAR 100 IN SPOTS ACROSS THE EASTERN
PIEDMONT LATE WEEK, WITH HEAT INDICES OVER 100 DEGREES. THE UPPER-
RIDGE FINALLY BREAKS DOWN THIS WEEKEND, WITH STORM CHANCES AND
TYPICAL SUMMER-LIKE WEATHER RETURNING TO THE AREA.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR HAS RETURNED TO ALL TERMINALS THIS EVENING AS DRIER AIR HAS
BEGUN TO CLEAR SKIES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. LINGERING SCATTERED
SHOWERS COULD AFFECT ALL TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS,
EXCEPT LWB. RAIN CONTINUES TO FIZZLE OUT AND SAG SOUTH OVERNIGHT.
CLEARING SKIES AND CALM WINDS WILL ALSO ALLOW PATCHY DENSE FOG TO
FORM, ESPECIALLY AT BCB/LWB, THOUGH ALL TERMINALS COULD BRIEFLY SEE
DENSE FOG, WHICH WILL BRING SUB-VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES TO BCB/BLF
WITH IFR VSBY/CIGS POSSIBLE, AND TO ROA WITH MVFR CIGS. LWB IS ONCE
AGAIN EXPECTED TO FOG IN HEAVILY, WITH LESS THAN A HALF MILE VSBY
FOR MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT.
FOG CLEARS OUT BY 13-14Z, WITH CLEAR SKIES AT ALL TERMINALS AND VFR
FLIGHT CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT, GUSTING TO AT MOST AROUND 10 KNOTS.
CONFIDENCE IN THE ABOVE FORECAST IS HIGH.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL TUESDAY NIGHT, LASTING THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK, WITH LITTLE TO NO CHANCE OF RAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL
RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL MID TO LATE WEEK. VFR IS EXPECTED AREA-WIDE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK, OUTSIDE OF PATCHY FOG AT TIMES
OVERNIGHT EACH NIGHT. THIS WEEKEND, RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO THE AREA,
BRINGING LIKELY SUB-VFR AT TIMES.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JCB
AVIATION...JCB
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