838  
FXUS61 KRNK 281103  
AFDRNK  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA  
703 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
A CHILLY AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO BE SEEN ACROSS THE MID-  
ATLANTIC THROUGH MID-WEEK, THANKS TO AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE  
OVER EASTERN CANADA. A SERIES OF STORM SYSTEMS WILL MOVE ACROSS  
THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY, ALLOWING PERIODS OF MUCH NEEDED  
RAIN TO CONTINUE TO BE SEEN. DRIER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE  
EXPECTED TO RETURN TO OUR AREA BY HALLOWEEN.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /NOW THROUGH TONIGHT/
 
 
ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT TUE OCT 27 2025  
 
KEY MESSAGES:  
 
- OFF-AND-ON RAIN CONTINUES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MUCH OF  
TODAY.  
 
- TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW NORMAL HEADING INTO MID-WEEK.  
 
WHETHER YOU CALL IT "THE WEDGE" OR COLD-AIR DAMMING, IT'S THE  
DOMINANT WEATHER PATTERN THAT'S IN CONTROL OF OUR REGION'S WEATHER  
EARLY THIS MORNING. WINDS BLOWING CLOCKWISE, AROUND SURFACE HIGH  
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEAST, CONTINUE TO BRING A DRIER  
AIRMASS INTO OUR FORECAST AREA. MEANWHILE, MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE  
DRAWN NORTHWARD TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC AS AN EJECTING SHORTWAVE  
TROUGH PUSHES AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE COAST OF  
THE CAROLINAS. THE STRUGGLE IS REAL, AS THE MOISTURE/STRATIFORM RAIN  
TRIES TO MOVE NORTHWARD BUT CAN ONLY MAKE IT "SO FAR" INTO THE DRIER  
AIR FROM THE NORTHEAST U.S. THE RESULT ARE WEATHER CONDITIONS THAT  
ARE CLAMMY OR DANK, AS THE PRECIPITATION AND ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER  
KEEPS HIGH TEMPERATURES BELOW WHAT'S EXPECTED FOR LATE OCTOBER (THE  
60S IN MOST PLACES). IF THERE'S ANY GOOD NEWS FROM THIS, WE ARE  
GETTING SOME MUCH-NEEDED RAINFALL.  
 
THE RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM SHOULD DIMINISH  
TODAY. AS THE AXIS OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH OUR  
REGION, THE SURFACE LOW (CURRENTLY) OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST  
SHOULD MOVE NORTHEAST. THE NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW SHOULD  
BECOME MORE DOMINANT AS THIS HAPPENS, WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A  
GRADUAL DECREASE IN THE COVERAGE (END?) OF PRECIPITATION OVER  
OUR AREA. TIMING ON THIS WILL LIKELY BE LATE MORNING OVER OUR  
WESTERN AREAS, WHILE THIS MAY NOT HAPPEN UNTIL MID- OR LATE  
AFTERNOON ACROSS SOME PARTS OF SOUTHSIDE VIRGINIA/NORTH CAROLINA  
PIEDMONT. AND WHILE I CAN'T TOTALLY DISCOUNT ADDITIONAL, MORE  
DRIZZLY RAIN INTO THE EVENING HOURS (WE'RE TALKING ABOUT "THE  
WEDGE" AFTER ALL!), THE ODDS OF SEEING MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION  
DROP ACROSS OUR REGION - ALBEIT BRIEFLY - BY LATE AFTERNOON. OUR  
NEXT OPPORTUNITY TO GET PRECIPITATION SHOULD ARRIVE BY MID-  
WEEK...BUT MORE ON THAT IN A MOMENT.  
 
THANKS TO THE PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER, AND RAINY/DRIZZLY CONDITIONS,  
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SOME 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMS  
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
 
 
AS OF 130 AM EDT TUESDAY...  
 
KEY MESSAGES:  
 
1. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WEDNESDAY, LINGERING INTO EARLY THURSDAY.  
 
2. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES, AND BREEZY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE  
PERIOD.  
 
3. DRY, BUT WINDY AND COOLER FOR HALLOWEEN NIGHT.  
 
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY, BEGINNING BY WEDNESDAY  
MORNING, AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS NORTHWARD FROM THE  
MID TENNESSEE VALLEY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC,  
SUPPORTED BY A DEEP 500MB LOW. THE OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION AND  
WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL SLOWLY ERODE THE HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE  
SITUATED OVER THE AREA, AND SO WILL LIKELY SEE RAIN BEGINNING AS  
LIGHT, BUT INCREASING IN INTENSITY BY THE AFTERNOON AS THE WEDGE  
ERODES. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER ALONG THE EDGE OF  
THE WEDGE, ESPECIALLY IN THE VA SOUTHSIDE WHERE MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE  
SUGGESTING SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY. HOWEVER, GIVEN THAT THE CENTER  
OF THE LOW MOVES OVER THE APPALACHIANS OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY,  
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN ANY SORT OF NOCTURNAL THUNDER, ESPECIALLY  
DURING LATE OCTOBER.  
 
MOST OF THE RAIN THAT FALLS WILL BE BENEFICIAL, AS MUCH OF THE LOCAL  
FORECAST AREA IN AT LEAST ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS, BUT MODERATE TO  
SEVERE DROUGHT EXISTS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. THERE REMAINS A  
MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL LEADING TO FLASH FLOODING FOR  
WEDNESDAY FOR MOST OF THE AREA, AS RAIN RATES COULD BE HIGH AT  
TIMES, AND THUS LEAD TO FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE  
AREAS, ESPECIALLY WITH LEAF LITTER THAT MAY CLOG DRAINS. 48 HOUR  
RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT RANGE FROM 1.25" TO OVER 2",  
AND SOME LOCATIONS ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE AROUND 2.5" TO NEAR 2.75",  
AS THE TERRAIN ENHANCES THE RAINFALL TOTALS.  
 
DRY AIR WILL GET WRAPPED INTO THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM, AND THE UPPER  
LEVEL LOW PIVOTS FARTHER NORTH THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY, THUS WILL  
SEE RAIN TAPERING OFF FOR MUCH OF THE AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON,  
SAVE FOR LINGERING UPSLOPE SHOWERS IN THE WEST WITH THE SURFACE AND  
500MB FLOW TURNING NORTHWESTERLY. COLD AIR FILTERING INTO THE REGION  
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING COULD RESULT IN SOME SNOW MIXING  
IN WITH THE RAIN FOR THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHEAST WV, BUT NO  
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.  
 
BY FRIDAY MORNING, THE CENTER OF THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN  
MID ATLANTIC AND THE NORTHEAST US, WELL AWAY FROM THE AREA, WITH DRY  
WEATHER FORECAST FOR HALLOWEEN. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY THROUGH THE  
PERIOD, GENERALLY BETWEEN 20 TO 30 MPH AREAWIDE, ON THE HIGHER END  
OF THE RANGE ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. WINDS WILL LESSEN  
SLIGHTLY FRIDAY NIGHT, AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE  
DEPARTING LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN US  
DECREASES.  
 
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD, BETWEEN 10 TO  
17 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY, IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S,  
INCREASING SLIGHTLY TO 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BY FRIDAY, INTO  
THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 60S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
AS OF 130 AM EDT TUESDAY...  
 
KEY MESSAGES:  
 
1. MOSTLY DRY WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND, THOUGH RAIN CHANCES INCREASE  
SUNDAY.  
 
2. TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.  
 
THE BROAD 500MB TROUGH LOSES AMPLITUDE OVER THE BEGINNING OF THE  
WEEKEND, AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN US WILL BUILD INTO THE  
MID ATLANTIC, WHICH WILL KEEP THE WEATHER OVER THE LOCAL FORECAST  
AREA MAINLY DRY. A SHORTWAVE WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE BASE OF THE  
MAIN TROUGH, AND CAUSE IT TO DEEPEN OVER THE EASTERN US LATER IN THE  
WEEKEND. BY SUNDAY, LONG RANGE MODELS START TO DIVERGE IN THE  
EVOLUTION OF THE 500MB PATTERN, AS SOME MODELS HAVE THE TROUGH  
BECOMING A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE MIDWEST AND GULF COAST STATES, WHILE  
OTHERS HAVE IT REMAINING AN OPEN WAVE, THUS LEADING TO INCREASING  
FORECAST UNCERTAINTY LATER IN THE WEEKEND. THAT BEING SAID, WITH  
SOME UPPER LEVEL ENERGY REACHING THE AREA SUNDAY, WILL SEE  
INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION, THOUGH REMAINING MOSTLY  
CONFINED TO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.  
 
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST  
PERIOD, IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE  
WEST, AND MID TO UPPER 50S ELSEWHERE, THOUGH SOME LOCATIONS COULD  
REACH THE LOW 60S IN THE PIEDMONT AND SOUTHSIDE.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 703 AM EDT TUE OCT 27 2025  
 
EXPECT FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS THROUGH 29/1200 UTC AS PERIODS OF  
-RA RESULTS IN FAIRLY WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS, WITH OCCASIONAL  
REDUCTIONS INTO IFR TERRITORY. "ROUND 1" OF THE PRECIPITATION  
SHOULD DIMINISH IN COVERAGE, GENERALLY FROM W TO E TODAY. EVEN  
THOUGH I'VE MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TIMING OF THIS  
BASED ON THE LATEST INFORMATION, RA SHOULD GRADUALLY END  
STARTING LATE THIS MORNING AT TERMINALS W OF THE BLUE RIDGE,  
WITH PRECIP ENDING FARTHER S/E LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.  
 
OF SECONDARY IMPACT TO AIRCRAFT WILL BE GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THIS  
AFTERNOON. NE TO E WINDS, WITH SPEEDS OF 10-15 KTS AT MOST  
TERMINALS, WILL BE SEEN. OCCASIONAL GUSTS GREATER THAN 20 KTS WILL  
BE POSSIBLE AS WELL.  
 
AS THIS INITIAL SYSTEM DEPARTS OUR AREA, THERE WILL WILL LIKELY  
BE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE RA. FLIGHT CATEGORIES ARE EXPECTED TO  
BRIEFLY IMPROVE DURING THIS TIME, WITH CIGS AOA 035 IN MANY  
PLACES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RESTRICTIONS WILL RETURN  
OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM, AND ADDITIONAL RA WILL  
LIKELY COMMENCE JUST PRIOR TO 29/1200 UTC.  
 
OUTLOOK WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...  
 
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY: RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED AS ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM  
BRINGS PERIODS OF -RA.  
 
THURSDAY NIGHT: IMPROVING FLIGHT CATEGORIES ANTICIPATED AS THE STORM  
SYSTEM EXITS THE REGION.  
 
FRIDAY-SATURDAY: NO RESTRICTIONS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.  
 

 
   
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
VA...NONE.  
NC...NONE.  
WV...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
SYNOPSIS...DB  
NEAR TERM...DB  
SHORT TERM...AS  
LONG TERM...AS  
AVIATION...DB  
 
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