895
FXUS61 KRNK 090556
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
156 AM EDT SAT MAY 9 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION UPDATED.
QPF AMOUNTS LOOK QUITE LOW FOR THE SUNDAY/MONDAY SYSTEM.
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR FROST TUESDAY MORNING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) TRANQUIL WEATHER TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING
THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. COOLER AIR AGAIN TO START THE WORK WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...TRANQUIL WEATHER TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING
THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. COOLER AIR AGAIN TO START THE WORK WEEK.
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION REMAINS IN FAST ZONAL FLOW WITH A
STRONG UPPER JET IN THE AREA (145 KTS). PASSING SHORT WAVES WILL
DEVELOP MORE OF A TROUGH OVER THE REGION LATER TODAY, AND
TROUGHING WILL ENCOMPASS MOST OF THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH
MONDAY. DRY RIDGING IS EXPECTED TUESDAY, WITH A DEEPER UPPER LOW
DIGGING TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY.
BY SUNDAY NIGHT, ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE MOVING INTO
SE WV/SW VA ALONG A COLD FRONT, AND THESE WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST
OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE FRONT LOOKS TO ARRIVE A LITTLE LATE
FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF THUNDER, AND OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING JUST EXPECTING LIGHT RAIN, WITH A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES
POSSIBLE MONDAY. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED. QPF LOOKS
PRETTY PITIFUL ACTUALLY, WITH MOST SPOTS JUST HOPING TO SEE A
TENTH OF AN INCH OUT OF THIS...LIKELY DUE TO THE ENERGY MOSTLY
SPLITTING AROUND THE BLUE RIDGE.
AFTER A QUITE AND DRY TUESDAY, A DEEPER MID LEVEL SYSTEM AND A
MESSY SURFACE LOW PRESSURE PATTERN BRINGS SCATTERED CONVECTION
TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. WITH PWATS BRIEFLY
JUMPING CLOSE TO AN INCH SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 460, WE ARE HOPING
THIS WILL BRING A MORE WIDESPREAD BENEFICIAL RAIN.
WHILE TODAY WILL BE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY, SUNDAY LOOKS LIKE THE
PICK OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S. ANOTHER
COOL AIR MASS MOVES IN MONDAY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING INTO
TO 30S AND LOW 40S, WITH FROST POSSIBLE AGAIN TUESDAY MORNING
FOR THE GREENBRIER VALLEY AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT
6-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH IMPROVING
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH FEW CLOUDS. PASSING
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY, BUT SHOULD CLEAR UP
LATER TODAY AS MID LEVEL ENERGY EXITS EAST. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING AND AGAIN TONIGHT, WITH GUSTY
WESTERLY WINDS TODAY TO 20 KTS OR SO.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
A FRONT ARRIVES LATE SUNDAY NIGHT, AND WILL BRING SHOWERS/STORMS
TO THE AREA, AND LIKELY PERIODS OF SUB-VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS
THROUGH MONDAY. HOWEVER, RAIN LOOKS TO BE LIGHT WITH MOST OF THE
SYSTEM'S ENERGY GOING AROUND THE BLUE RIDGE. WINDS INCREASE
AGAIN LATE MONDAY BEHIND THE FRONT, GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KNOTS.
COULD SEE SOME FOG MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNINGS. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA LATE MONDAY, WITH VFR PREVAILING
THROUGH TUESDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM BRINGS RAIN INTO THE AREA FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, WITH GUSTY SW WINDS WEDNESDAY, AND GUSTY
NW WINDS THURSDAY.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SH
AVIATION...SH
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