749
FXUS61 KRNK 011740
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
140 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THURSDAY ACROSS PARTS
OF THE SOUTHERN SHENANDOAH VALLEY INTO THE PIEDMONT OF VA AND
NC.
A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TODAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN SHENANDOAH VALLEY INTO THE PIEDMONT OF VA.
ADDITIONAL ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE REGION
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK GOING INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
KEY MESSAGES
1) HEAT RISK INCREASES TO HAZARDOUS LEVELS THIS WEEK INTO THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN SHENANDOAH VALLEY INTO THE PIEDMONT OF VA. ADDITIONAL HEAT
ADVISORY ISSUED FOR THURSDAY EXPANDED SW INTO NC.
2) ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE MAINLY FOR THE MOUNTAINS. MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR
STORMS THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...HEAT RISK INCREASES TO HAZARDOUS LEVELS THIS
WEEK INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR
PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN SHENANDOAH VALLEY INTO THE PIEDMONT OF VA.
ADDITIONAL HEAT ADVISORY ISSUED FOR THURSDAY EXPANDED SW INTO
NC.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS THIS WEEK. THIS FEATURE WILL FACILITATE WARMING
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S IN THE MOUNTAINS
AND UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100 FOR THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT.
THE HOT TEMPERATURES WILL COMBINE WITH ELEVATED DEWPOINTS NEAR
70 TO PRODUCE PEAK HEAT INDICES OF 95 TO 100 IN THE MOUNTAINS
AND 102 TO NEAR 110 IN THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT.
CLOUD COVER WILL BE MINIMAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS
THE SUBSIDENCE GETS STRONGER UNDER BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WILL LEAD TO HOTTER TEMPERATURE PROFILES IN
ADDITION TO VERY WARM MUGGY CONDITIONS AT NIGHT.
CALL TO ACTION: THOSE THAT HAVE TO WORK OUTSIDE OR WITH OUTDOOR
PLANS, INCLUDING HOLIDAY FESTIVITIES AND RECREATIONAL
ACTIVITIES, SHOULD PREPARE FOR SEVERAL DAYS OF ELEVATED HEAT
RISK. STAY HYDRATED, TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS IN AIR CONDITIONED OR
SHADED AREAS, AND NEVER LEAVE CHILDREN OR PETS UNATTENDED IN
VEHICLES.
KEY MESSAGE 2...ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE MAINLY FOR THE MOUNTAINS. MORE WIDESPREAD
CHANCE FOR STORMS THIS WEEKEND.
THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGING WILL PROMOTE AN INCREASE IN DOWNWARD
MOTION (AKA SUBSIDENCE) WITH INCREASE OF TEMPERATURE 5-10KFT
AGL, THIS SUBSIDENCE INVERSION OR CAPPING INVERSION BECOMING
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM PROHIBITIVE. OROGRAPHIC LIFT ALONG AND
NEAR OF THE MOUNTAINS MAY ALLOWED FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM
OR TWO TO DEVELOP, BUT THE LIFETIME OF THESE CELLS IS EXPECTED
TO BE BRIEF. THE STORMS THAT MANAGED TO DEVELOP YESTERDAY WERE
RATHER ROBUST DUE TO CAPE EXCEEDING 3000 J/KG. SIMILAR
CONDITIONS WILL EXIST TODAY AND THURSDAY, BUT IT WILL BE A
STRUGGLE TO BREAK THE CAP WITH THE PROBABILITY SO LOW THAT WE
ARE NOT MENTIONING THEM IN THE PUBLIC ZONE FORECASTS. HIGHEST
PROBABILITY TODAY IS THE NORTH CAROLINA HIGH COUNTRY WHERE POPS
OF 5 TO 15 PERCENT ARE BEING FORECAST...STEERING WINDS FROM THE
NORTHEAST AT UNDER 10 MPH.
ON THURSDAY THE STRUGGLE TO GET CONVECTION GOING WILL BE EVEN
HARDER WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVERHEAD.
BY THE WEEKEND, THE RIDGE WILL PARTIALLY BREAK DOWN. THIS WILL
ALLOW MORE SHORT WAVE ENERGY TO SKIRT THE NORTHERN PART OF THE
COUNTRY AND ENTER THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST,
RESULTING IN AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
INDEPENDENCE DAY WEEKEND, AND LEADING TO MORE OF A CONCERN FOR
DAMAGING WINDS AND FLASH FLOODING. MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRIFTS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. THIS
ALONG WITH POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION ALOFT AND DAYTIME
HEATING WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AREAWIDE, AND WILL DO SO FOR THE MAJORITY
OF THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD, ENDING 18Z THURSDAY. THE EXCEPTION
WILL BE A FEW HOURS OF MORNING FOG IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS WHERE
VSBY LESS THAN 1SM IS POSSIBLE AT KLWB, AND 3 TO 5SM AT
KBCB/KBLF. THE FOG/MIST WILL DISSIPATE BY 13Z OR SO, WITH
FEW OR SCT MAINLY AFTERNOON CUMULUS. CANNOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON, BUT GREATEST POTENTIAL
LOOKS TO BE OVER THE NORTHWEST NC MOUNTAINS, AND THUS VERY LOW
PROBABILITY OF IMPACTING THE TAF SITES.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE PRACTICALLY OVERHEAD, WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY UNDER 5KTS. IT WILL ALSO BE
HOT DURING THE AFTERNOON CREATING HIGH DENSITY ALTITUDE...
CONDITIONS LEADING TO LONGER TAKEOFF ROLLS, DECREASE CLIMB RATES
AND WEIGHT RESTRICTIONS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
HAZY HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASING FOR THE INDEPENDENCE
DAY WEEKEND. PRIMARY FLIGHT CATEGORY IS EXPECTED TO BE VFR.
MAIN HAZARD WILL BE THE HEAT. TEMPERATURES THE NEXT FEW DAYS
WILL BE HOT WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS 87 TO 95 FOR THE MOUNTAIN
TERMINALS AND 95 TO 102 FOR THE LOWER ELEVATION TERMINALS SUCH
AS ROA/LYH/DAN. THESE EXTREME TEMPERATURES WILL CREATE HIGH
DENSITY ALTITUDE WITH AIRCRAFT PERFORMANCE SIMILAR TO TAKING OFF
FROM A HIGHER ALTITUDE RUNWAY.
WINDS THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE. SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW 10 KTS FOR MOST OF
THE PERIOD. OVER THE WEEKEND WINDS BECOME MORE GUSTY AND TREND
WNW FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERLY FOR AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE.
CLIMATE
SOME MAXIMUM AND MINIMUM TEMPERATURE RECORDS MAY BE BROKEN THIS
WEEK. FOR REFERENCE, THE RECORDS ARE LISTED BELOW ALONG WITH
THE YEAR THE RECORD OCCURRED.
07/01
STATION HI MAX T HI MIN T
ROANOKE 100/1931 76/2012
LYNCHBURG 98/1970 76/1933
DANVILLE 102/1945 76/1990
BLUEFIELD 93/1959 70/1970
BLACKSBURG 95/1931 69/1897
07/02
STATION HI MAX T HI MIN T
ROANOKE 100/1954 74/1970
LYNCHBURG 99/1898 76/1913
DANVILLE 101/1925 75/1931
BLUEFIELD 95/1954 69/2014
BLACKSBURG 95/1954 68/1931
07/03
STATION HI MAX T HI MIN T
ROANOKE 97/2012 75/1980
LYNCHBURG 97/2012 74/1903
DANVILLE 100/1955 80/1922
BLUEFIELD 92/1911 72/1998
BLACKSBURG 95/1954 71/1941
07/04
STATION HI MAX T HI MIN T
ROANOKE 99/1999 74/2024
LYNCHBURG 98/1966 76/1902
DANVILLE 99/1919 74/1999
BLUEFIELD 92/1957 69/2024
BLACKSBURG 94/1966 78/1949
07/05
STATION HI MAX T HI MIN T
ROANOKE 100/1999 76/2012
LYNCHBURG 98/2024 75/1900
DANVILLE 103/1919 76/1926
BLUEFIELD 93/1948 71/1969
BLACKSBURG 94/1930 69/1932
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR VAZ022>024-
032>035-043>047-058-059.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ022>024-
033>035-043>047-058-059.
NC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR NCZ003>006-
020.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...PM/SH
AVIATION...PM/SH
CLIMATE...RCS
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