323
FXUS61 KRNK 150535
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
135 AM EDT WED JUL 15 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
LOWERED HIGHS SLIGHTLY TODAY AND THURSDAY DUE TO SOME INCREASED
SMOKE ALOFT FROM WILDFIRES IN THE UPPER MIDWEST/CANADA, WHICH
WILL FILTER THE SUNSHINE.
AVIATION FORECAST UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SIGNIFICANT HEAT RETURNS TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY HOWEVER WE
LOOK TO STAY BELOW HEAT ADVISORY OR WARNING CRITERIA.
2) SCATTERED DAILY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
RETURN FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...SIGNIFICANT HEAT RETURNS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY, HOWEVER WE LOOK TO STAY BELOW HEAT ADVISORY OR WARNING
CRITERIA.
LARGE SCALE UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM
THE NW TODAY. THIS WILL PUSH THE ENHANCED MOISTURE AXIS SOUTH OF THE
AREA AND THE SWITCH TO A DRY SUBSIDENT AIRMASS WILL ALLOW FOR MOSTLY
CLEAR CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY. SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES IN
CANADA AND THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE AREA TODAY
MAKING FOR MORE COLORFUL SUNRISE/SUNSET BUT SHOULD NOT IMPACT
SURFACE VISIBILITIES AS IT STAYS ELEVATED. STILL DO NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SMELL SMOKE. TEMPERATURES START TO HEAT UP TODAY
BUT THE SMOKE COULD FILTER THE SUNSHINE SOMEWHAT TO TEMPER THE
HEAT. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOOK TO BE THE WARMEST DAYS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...SCATTERED DAILY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RETURN FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE DAMPENS AND BREAKS DOWN BY FRIDAY ALLOWING
FOR A RETURN OF MOISTURE ADVECTING IN FROM THE WEST AND INCREASED
CHANCES FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS SHOULD INCREASE FOR SATURDAY AS AN AMPLIFIED SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DIGS INTO THE AREA. ON THE HEELS OF THIS FEATURE, A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
IS PROGGED TO TRACK SEWD FOR SUNDAY AND AGAIN ALLOW FOR INCREASED
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION. WHILE STILL PRETTY FAR OUT TO PROPERLY
ASSESS SEVERE POTENTIAL, FOR NOW SHEAR PARAMETERS ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE
THOUGH LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES COULD BE QUITE HIGH SO SOME STRONGER
CONVECTION COULD HAVE ENHANCED DOWNDRAFT WINDS EACH DAY.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT LWB AND
POSSIBLY BCB WHERE SOME RIVER VALLEY FOG EARLY THIS MORNING MAY
LEAD TO SOME VSBY AND CIG RESTRICTIONS IN THE MVFR TO LIFR
LEVELS. AFTER LOOKING AT AT MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR TOMORROW
(WEDNESDAY), IT APPEARS THAT THERE IS TOO MUCH DRY AIR THROUGH
THE COLUMN TO HAVE MUCH OF A SCATTERED CU FIELD; HOWEVER, A FEW
CLOUDS AT 5-6 THOUSAND FEET CAN'T BE RULED OUT. OVERALL, SKIES
WILL REMAIN PREDOMINANTLY CLEAR ACROSS ALL TERMINALS AFTER ANY
RIVER VALLEY FOG LIFTS.
WINDS WILL PREDOMINANTLY REMAIN LIGHT AT AROUND 5 MPH ACROSS ALL
TERMINALS. WIND DIRECTIONS LOOK TO REMAIN OUT OF THE
WEST/NORTHWEST THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD.
SOME SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES IN CANADA/UPPER MIDWEST MAY IMPACT
VISIBILITIES ALOFT, BUT SURFACE VISIBILITIES SHOULD STAY VFR.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
SHOWER AND STORMS CHANCES RETURN FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH
POTENTIAL SUB-VFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS. MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG/LOW
STRATUS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE EACH MORNING.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AB/WP
AVIATION...AB/EB/WP
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