288
FXUS61 KRNK 020155
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
955 PM EDT TUE APR 1 2025
SYNOPSIS
A WARM FRONT WILL ARRIVE ON WEDNESDAY, WHICH WILL BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS AND CHANCES OF RAIN INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK WITH A FEW SHOWERS WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS DUE TO A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT WILL STALL ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 955 PM EDT TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR WINDS INCREASING FROM THE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST VIRGINIA AND FAR SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA.
2) CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY, AND CHANCES OF RAIN SHOULD
ALSO STEADILY RISE AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WERE TWEAKED DOWNWARD IN THIS UPDATE AS
THEY ARE DROPPING DUE TO MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. AS HIGH PRESSURE
CROSSES THE NEW ENGLAND STATES TONIGHT, THE FLOW SHOULD SWING
TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST. MEANWHILE, A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS, WHICH WILL CAUSE A PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. A SOUTHEAST WIND
COULD GUST UP TO 40 MPH ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA
AND FAR SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA BY WEDNESDAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AS
THIS MOIST AND COOL AIR FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WEDGES AGAINST
THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE BLUE RIDGE. THE WARM FRONT FROM THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE MID
ATLANTIC BY WEDNESDAY EVENING.
AS A RESULT OF THIS PATTERN, TEMPERATURES WERE LOWERED EVEN
FURTHER WITH HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY NOT CLIMBING OUT OF THE 50S FOR
A MAJORITY OF LOCATIONS. SOME MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS MAY NOT ESCAPE
THE 40S ON WEDNESDAY GIVEN HOW TEMPERATURES ARE DROPPING
TONIGHT AND WILL NOT HAVE MUCH OPPORTUNITY TO INCREASE
AFTERWARD. CHANCES OF RAIN WILL EMERGE ALONG THE SOUTHERN BLUE
RIDGE ON WEDNESDAY MORNING AND SPREAD NORTHWARD BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD STAY LIGHT AND MAY JUST BE
SPRINKLES OR DRIZZLE UNTIL THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES TO BRING
ADDITIONAL LIFT. PATCHY FOG MAY OCCUR ALONG THE CREST OF THE
SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE AS THE UPSLOPE MOISTURE INCREASES ON
WEDNESDAY, ESPECIALLY NEAR INTERSTATE 77 AND FANCY GAP.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 1015 AM EDT TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
1) HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WARMING TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING
CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR RAIN IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WE WILL STILL
BE MOSTLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT.
A FRONTAL FRACTURE/EXTENDED BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BE SITUATED
ROUGHLY FROM TX TO PA TO ME AND GRADUALLY SHIFT INTO NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE PERIOD.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL HELP KEEP MOISTURE ELEVATED WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY, AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
EACH DAY, MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOONS WHEN HEATING IS GREATEST,
AND MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A GOOD 15-20 DEGREES WARMER THAN ON
WEDNESDAY. HAVE GONE A FEW DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE HOWEVER DUE TO
SHOWERS AND CLOUDS.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 1010 AM EDT TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) COLD FRONT FINALLY MOVES THROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND.
2) MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SATURDAY WILL BE ANOTHER WARM DAY UNDER CLOUD COVER AND MOUNTAIN
SHOWERS WITH A POSSIBLE BACKDOOR FRONT SITUATION AS PART OF
THE BOUNDARY SHIFTS SOUTH. FINALLY BY SUNDAY, A STRONG SHORT
WAVE WILL EJECT OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND WILL BE ABSORBED
BY THE LARGER MEAN TROUGH TO OUR WEST. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH
FORCING TO KICK A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA, BRINGING
WIDESPREAD MODERATE RAIN ALONG WITH THUNDERSTORMS.
THE COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES BY NEXT
MONDAY AND TUESDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S FOR THE
MOUNTAINS, AND IN THE 60S FOR THE PIEDMONT, AND LOWS AREAWIDE IN
THE 30S.
AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 955 PM EDT TUESDAY...
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR VFR CONDITIONS EARLY TONIGHT. SCATTERED
CIRRUS WILL SPREAD OVERHEAD AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT.
ALTHOUGH THE FLOW BEGINS AS LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT, IT
SHOULD SWING TOWARDS THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST BEFORE DAYBREAK ON
WEDNESDAY. THE SOUTHEAST FLOW SHOULD ACCELERATE WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE ON WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 25-30 KNOTS AT BLF AND
15-20 KNOTS AT BCB AND LWB. IN ADDITION, THE INCREASING MOISTURE
WILL CAUSE A LAYER OF IFR TO MVFR STRATUS TO DEVELOP. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW A HIGH PROBABILITY OF CEILINGS FALLING LOWER BY
SUNSET ON WEDNESDAY WITH LIGHT RAIN ARRIVING DUE TO AN
APPROACHING WARM FRONT.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK
POOR FLYING CONDITIONS ARE BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT CROSSES THE MID ATLANTIC. MODELS
ARE DEPICTING A GROWING THREAT FOR LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR FROM THE
SOUTH THAT COULD EXCEED 40 KNOTS, ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE. RAIN COVERAGE WILL INCREASE, WHILE CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES COULD DROP TO IFR OR PERHAPS LOWER. A COLD FRONT
MAY STALL ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY DURING THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. CHANCES OF RAIN AND MVFR
CONDITIONS REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR THURSDAY THOUGH SUNDAY AS THE
FLOW TURNS MORE TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...PW
NEAR TERM...PW
SHORT TERM...SH
LONG TERM...SH
AVIATION...PW
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