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FXUS61 KRNK 082351
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
751 PM EDT WED JUL 8 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SHOWERS/STORMS ARE DECREASING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.
AVIATION UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
KEY MESSAGE 1: ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL
BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND FLASH
FLOODING, ALTHOUGH SEVERE POTENTIAL IS DECREASING.
KEY MESSAGE 2: DAILY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL
BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND FLASH
FLOODING, ALTHOUGH SEVERE POTENTIAL IS DECREASING.
A STATIONARY FRONT BISECTS THE FORECAST AREA FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST WITH LIGHT NORTHEAST WIND EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS
CONVERGING WITH WESTERLY WIND ON WEST SIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS.
MEAN WINDS ALOFT ARE OUT OF THE WEST AT ABOUT 15 MPH SO LOOK
FOR AN EASTWARD DRIFT OF THE ACTIVITY WITH POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS DUE TO WATER LOADING WITHIN THE
DOWNDRAFT CORES. THERE IS ALSO POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING PER ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTING HIGH RAIN EFFICIENCY, PWATS
RUNNING 1.70 OVER THE MOUNTAINS TO AS MUCH AS 2" OVER THE
PIEDMONT... BACKBUILDING AND TRAINING CELLS BEING THE MOST
PROBLEMATIC.
AFTER MIDNIGHT, EXPECT AREAS OF STRATUS AND FOG REDEVELOPING
PER SHALLOW STABLE WEDGE EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS.
KEY MESSAGE 2: DAILY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN
THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC TO THE
OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS WILL BE A CONTINUED FOCUS FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS AGAIN THURSDAY WITH GREATEST COVERAGE FROM 1400
TO 2200 EDT, BASICALLY ALIGNED WITH THE PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY.
WIND FIELDS ALOFT ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN WEAK AND WITH THE
FRONT ESSENTIALLY STALLED OVER THE AREA, WILL HAVE TO CONTEND
WITH ANOTHER DAY FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN AND MARGINALLY SEVERE
STORMS.
A MORE BONAFIDE SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT
LAKES FRIDAY WILL TRIGGER INCREASED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS FOR THE WEEKEND, WITH THE FRONT EVENTUALLY PASSING SOUTH
OF THE REGION SUNDAY LEADING TO SOMEWHAT DRIER CONDITIONS FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR NORMAL AND MAY ACTUALLY COOL TO BELOW
NORMAL FOR A FEW DAYS EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WHICH BROUGHT THE HEAT PRIOR TO THE 4TH OF JULY IS
SHIFTING WEST OVER THE ROCKIES.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS ARE DECREASING IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY
THIS EVENING.
AREAS OF FOG AND STRATUS WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH POTENTIAL
FOR WIDESPREAD LOW CIGS/VSBYS LEADING TO PERIOD OF IFR
CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY.
CYCLE REPEATS ITSELF THURSDAY, FOG/STRATUS LIFTING AFTER 14Z
FOLLOWED BY CLOUD BUILD-UPS AROUND NOON AND SCATTERED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
IN GENERAL EXPECT LIGHT WINDS (UNDER 5 KTS), BUT GUSTY NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK
SCATTERED, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECASTED FOR EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HEAVY DOWNPOURS,
GUSTY WINDS, AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE ALL POSSIBLE IN ANY OF
THE STRONGER STORMS. PATCHY FOG IS ALSO LIKELY DURING THE
OVERNIGHT PERIODS, ESPECIALLY WHERE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
OCCURRED DURING THE EVENING BEFORE. ANY FOG WILL BURN OFF
QUICKLY AFTER 13Z DAILY.
POTENTIALLY DRIER LOOKS TO ARRIVE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...PM/SH
AVIATION...PM/SH
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