820
FXUS61 KRNK 061759
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
159 PM EDT WED MAY 6 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SOME STORMS STILL POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING, BUT NOT
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD CONVECTION.
HAVE LOWERED RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH THURSDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) FRONTAL SYSTEM TO BRING SHOWERS/STORM THROUGH THIS EVENING.
SHOWERS LINGER THROUGH THURSDAY.
2) SHOWER CHANCES AGAIN LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...FRONTAL SYSTEM TO BRING SHOWERS/STORM THROUGH THIS
EVENING. SHOWERS LINGER THROUGH THURSDAY.
SEVERAL PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE AIDING IN LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS HAVE BEEN ONGOING FOR MOST OF
THE DAY SO FAR, BUT SHOULD GRADUALLY TAPER OFF OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. VISIBLE SATELLITE INDICATES WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER
WITH VERY FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AT THE MOMENT, BUT
ADDITIONAL BREAKS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON SO STILL POSSIBLE
TO SEE SOME SUN.
RAP ANALYSIS DOES INDICATE SOME INSTABILITY INCREASING OVER THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS,
ALONG WITH CAMS SUPPORTING SOME SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT.
THIS COINCIDES WITH BREAKS OF CLOUDS CURRENTLY OVER EAST TN AND
WESTERN NC. SHOULD THESE BREAKS WORK NORTH, COULD HAVE A BETTER
CHANCE OF STORMS. HOWEVER, STILL NOT EXPECTING ANY WIDESPREAD
REDEVELOPMENT OF STORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING GIVEN
CURRENT TRENDS.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN REDUCED WITH MOST AVERAGING A QUARTER
TO HALF AN INCH, WITH EVEN LESSER AMOUNTS ALONG THE I64
CORRIDOR. ANY THUNDERSTORMS OR TRAINING OF HEAVIER SHOWERS
COULD BRING LOCALLY 2 INCH AMOUNTS.
WITH THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH THURSDAY AND POTENTIAL FOR MORE
CLOUD COVER, HAVE LOWERED HIGHS A COUPLE DEGREES FROM THE MODELS
WITH MID 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR MOST OF THE AREA, POTENTIALLY
REACHING 70 ACROSS THE NC FOOTHILLS.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FRIDAY WITH DRY WEATHER RETURNING ALONG
WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.
KEY MESSAGE 2... SHOWER CHANCES THIS WEEKEND INTO MONDAY.
THE CLOSED UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING CYCLONIC FLOW AND MULTIPLE SHORTWAVE ENERGIES NEAR THE BASE
OF THE MEAN TROUGH. THIS WILL FACILITATE THE PROGRESSION OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE AND A SLIGHT COOLDOWN FOLLOW FOR TUESDAY.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE A BIT OF A MIXED BAG DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS
WITH THE PRESENCE OF A FRONT, AMPLE ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND OFF AND
ON SHOWERS. CIGS ARE A BIT HIGHER THAN ANTICIPATED, BUT WE ARE
CURRENTLY IN A BIT OF A LULL BETWEEN ROUNDS OF RAIN THIS AFTERNOON.
CIGS WILL LIKELY DROP BELOW 3KFT AT MOST SITES LATER THIS EVENING AS
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS CROSSES SOUTHWEST VA. EXPECT SOME MORNING
VSBY ISSUES WITH ALL THE NEW SURFACE MOISTURE FROM RECENT RAIN. RAIN
IS ALSO EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY.
WINDS ARE CURRENTLY OUT OF THE WEST OR SOUTHWEST, BUT WILL TURN
TOWARDS THE NORTH BY SUNRISE THURSDAY. THEY WILL BE ABOUT 8-12 KTS,
WITH A FEW GUSTS AS HIGH AS 20 KTS.
CONFIDENCE IN THE ABOVE SCENARIO IS AVERAGE.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECASTED TO PERSIST THURSDAY, WITH
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. SUNDAY HAS ANOTHER FRONT AND SHOWER/STORM
CHANCES WITH SUB-VFR POSSIBLE.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BMG/WP
AVIATION...VFJ/WP
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