361
FXUS61 KRNK 161042
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
642 AM EDT SUN AUG 16 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE STORM CHANCES, WITH FLASH FLOODING
THREAT ACROSS AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-64 ARE EXPECTED TODAY
AND MONDAY, WITH DRY CONDITIONS RETURNING TO THE AREA THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK.
AVIATION UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
KEY MESSAGE 1: CHANCES FOR STRONG STORMS AND FLASH FLOODING
TODAY AND MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: CHANCES FOR STRONG STORMS AND FLASH FLOODING
TODAY AND MONDAY.
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN CONTINUES TO REMAIN UNCHANGED TODAY
COMPARED TO THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS, WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
CENTERED ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES, AND AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. THIS HAS CREATED A CORRIDOR
FOR SHORTWAVE VORTICITY MAXIMA TO TRAVEL FROM WEST TO EAST FROM
THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY, AND INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC STATES. TODAY, HIGH PRESSURE THAT WAS OVER THE
NORTHEAST CREATING SOME WEAK WEDGING ACROSS THE PIEDMONT IS
EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT PUSHES TO THE NORTH AND
EAST BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THIS WILL TRANSITION WINDS TO
SOUTHWESTERLY/SOUTHERLY AREAWIDE TODAY.
AT THE SURFACE, DEWPOINTS WILL GENERALLY CLIMB INTO THE LOW 70S
ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SBCAPE VALUES TO
CLIMB INTO THE 1500-2500 J/KG LEVEL. DCAPE VALUES IN THE
900-1200 J/KG RANGE WILL SUPPORT STRONG DAMAGING WINDS WITH
STORM CLUSTERS TODAY. 0-6 KM DEEP LAYER SHEAR LOOKS TO REMAIN IN
THE 20-25 KNOT RANGE, WHICH WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF
MULTICELLULAR CLUSTERS, WITH A FEW POSSIBLE EMBEDDED SUPERCELL
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL PIEDMONT OF VIRGINIA
TODAY. THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT MAY CREATE POCKETS OF LOW
LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN THE 0-3 KM LEVEL FAVORABLE ENOUGH TO
DEVELOP AN ISOLATED TORNADO ACROSS THE CENTRAL VIRGINIA
PIEDMONT. THIS CORRIDOR WHERE CLUSTERS OF STORMS LOOK TO TRACK
ALONG TODAY MAY ALSO DEVELOP TRAINING STORMS, WHICH WOULD LEAD
TO THE POSSIBILITY FOR FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THE REGION. CURRENT
CAM GUIDANCE KEEPS MUCH OF THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL NORTH OF THE
REGION; HOWEVER, SLIGHT SHIFTS SOUTH IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
STORMS MAY SHIFT THIS THREAT FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE REGION.
CURRENTLY, WITH LARGEST THREATS FOR FLASH FLOODING LOOK TO BE
ACROSS SE WEST VIRGINIA, AND PORTIONS OF THE I-64 CORRIDOR IN
VIRGINIA.
OVERALL THE THREAT SHIFTS SOUTH ON MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT
FINALLY PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. THIS COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SOUTH TOWARDS THE VA/NC BORDER, WITH
STRONG TO SEVERE WINDS LIKELY TO BE THE MAJOR THREAT/IMPACT TO
THE REGION. THIS FRONT WILL ALSO USHER IN A DRIER AIRMASS BY
TUESDAY, WHICH WILL BE MAINTAINED ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. RAIN CHANCES DON'T LOOK TO RETURN UNTIL
THURSDAY, WITH THE PASSAGE OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT.
SPC MAINTAINS SLIGHT RISKS (LEVEL 2 OF 5) FOR AREAS NORTH OF
460 TODAY, AND FOR AREAS SOUTH OF 460 FOR MONDAY. ALL OTHER
AREAS MAINTAIN A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5). WPC IS
MAINTAINING A MODERATE RISK (LEVEL 3 OF 4) FOR PORTIONS OF SE
WEST VIRGINIA TODAY, WITH A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 4) FOR
AREAS NORTH OF 460, AND A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 4) FOR AREAS
SOUTH OF 460 FOR TODAY. A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 4) FOR AREAS
WEST OF I-81 IS FORECAST FOR MONDAY AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS HAVE DEVELOPED AT MOST TERMINALS ACROSS THE
AREA TO INCLUDE LWB, BCB, LYH, AND ROA. EXPECT RESTRICTIONS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
BEFORE LIFTING DURING THE 12-14 UTC TIMEFRAME. SITES LIKE LWB
MAY TAKE UNTIL 14-16 UTC TO RETURN TO VFR BASED OFF OF THE
PREVIOUS NIGHTS OBSERVATIONS. WHILE VFR CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED FOR A MAJORITY OF THE TAF PERIOD, THERE WILL BE
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR LWB, ROA, BLF, AND LYH.
MUCH OF THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LOOKS TO REMAIN
NORTH OF 460 TODAY. LWB, MAY HAVE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.
OUTSIDE OF ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY, EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY LEAD TO BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR TO
IFR RESTRICTIONS, AND ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS.
WINDS TODAY WILL GENERALLY REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FOR
ALL TERMINALS AT AROUND 5-10 KNOTS. GUSTS WILL PREDOMINANTLY
REMAIN IN THE 10-15 KNOT RANGE, WITH LWB AND BLF CLOSER TO THE
TOP END WITH MORE FREQUENT GUSTS TO 15 KNOTS.
OVERNIGHT RESTRICTIONS LOOK POSSIBLE AGAIN AT MOST TERMINALS,
WITH LOW CIGS AND VSBYS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA STARTING
AROUND 06 UTC.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
PATTERN TREND CONTINUES WITH CHANCES
FOR STORMS MONDAY THEN DRY FOR TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. MAINLY VFR OUTSIDE
OF ANY STORMS AND LATE NIGHT FOG/STRATUS. ANOTHER FRONT TRACKS
IN THURSDAY WITH ANOTHER SHOWER/STORM THREAT.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...EB
AVIATION...EB
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