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FXUS61 KRNK 120739
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
239 AM EST MON JAN 12 2026
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF ACCUMULATING SNOW BY LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY. MORE MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE BY THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 145 AM EST MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) DRIER WEATHER TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
AREA.
STRATUS REMAINED ENTRENCHED ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THIS
MORNING IN UPSLOPE FLOW. LATER THIS MORNING, CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO
LIFT AND SCATTER OUT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND WINDS TURN
WESTERLY. EXPECT A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY TO DEVELOP WITH LIGHT WESTERLY
WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL THROUGH TUESDAY.
LOWS THIS MORNING HAD TUMBLED INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO UPPER 20S,
WITH RESIDUAL SLIGHTLY GUSTY WINDS RESULTING IN WIND CHILLS IN THE
TEENS AND LOW 20S. AFTER THIS FRIGID START, THE DRY AIR MASS WILL
SUPPORT A RELATIVELY QUICK WARM UP, BUT ONLY INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
LOW 40S FOR THE MOUNTAINS, AND THE UPPER 40S FOR THE PIEDMONT BY
THIS AFTERNOON. STILL IT WILL BE AN IMPROVEMENT ON YESTERDAY.
TONIGHT WILL BE ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 20S AREAWIDE.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN THE NEAR TERM FORECAST.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 1230 AM EST MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1. DRY AND TRENDING A BIT MILDER FOR TUESDAY.
2. MILDER STILL ON WEDNESDAY WITH RAIN ARRIVING FROM WEST TO EAST.
3. WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SNOW WITH
MEASURABLE SNOW EXPECTED FOR THE MOUNTAINS.
4. ADDITIONAL INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE THURSDAY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.
5. THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT, GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS YIELDING VERY
LOW WIND CHILLS BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.
ON TUESDAY, THE AREA WILL BE ON THE BACKSIDE OF A DEPARTING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR SOUTH.
ADDITIONALLY, A MORE ROBUST LONGWAVE TROUGH WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE DEVELOPING BETWEEN THE NORTHERN PLAINS
STATES AND THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS PATTERN OF FEATURES
WILL YIELD GENERALLY A SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA, WITH A TREND
TOWARDS SLIGHTLY MILDER CONDITIONS THAN ON MONDAY, IN PARTICULAR THE
HIGH TEMPERATURES. ADDITIONALLY, ON TUESDAY, AN UPPER LOW/TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO BE DEVELOPING NEAR THE TX/MEXICO BORDER.
AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES, THE NORTHERN STREAM LONGWAVE TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO DEEPEN AND AMPLIFY. THE DEVELOPING SOUTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO HEAD EAST AND HELP YIELD AN OVERALL
CONSTRUCTIVE WAVE INTERFERENCE PATTERN, THUS HELPING THE NORTHERN
SYSTEM AMPLIFY EVEN FURTHER. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITHIN THE
NORTHERN SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS EASTWARD INTO AND THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
MOISTURE ACROSS OUR REGION WILL BE ON THE INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF THE
DEEPENING AND APPROACHING CENTRAL US LONGWAVE TROUGH. LATEST
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE START OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. COVERAGE SPREADS EAST
DURING WEDNESDAY WITH MOST LOCATIONS WITH A PLAIN RAIN. SOME OF THE
HIGHER PEAKS AND RIDGES BETWEEN SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINA AND NORTHWEST
NORTH CAROLINA MAY SEE A RAIN/SNOW MIX.
COLDER AIR ARRIVES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT,
AND THEN REINFORCING INCREASED NORTHWEST FLOW WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THE ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE COLDER AIR WILL QUICKLY
TRANSITION THE RAIN TO SNOW ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS PROVIDING FOR A
LIGHT ACCUMULATION BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY. THE TRANSITION ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT WILL COME LATER IN THE DAY ON THURSDAY, WITH MORE OF A
RAIN/SNOW MIX POTENTIAL AT THIS TIME. AS THURSDAY PROGRESSES,
CONTINUED PREFERRED NORTHWEST FLOW WILL ADD TO SNOW TOTALS ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS, WITH ADDITIONAL MULTIPLE INCHES POSSIBLE FOR SOME
AREAS, ESPECIALLY WESTERN SECTIONS OF GREENBRIER COUNTY, WV.
THE AXIS OF THE PARENT UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
CROSS THE REGION BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL AGAIN REINFORCING
A COLD AIR ADVECTION NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN. LOOK FOR A CONTINUATION
OF DECREASING TEMPERATURES, ALONG WITH UPSLOPE SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. THE COMBINATION OF FALLING
TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WINDS MAY DROP WIND CHILL VALUES TO THE LOW
SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH SOME SUB-ZERO VALUES AT THE
HIGHEST PEAKS AND RIDGES BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT, WIND CHILLS OF THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO THE LOW TEENS
ARE EXPECTED.
CONFIDENCE IN THE ABOVE WEATHER SCENARIO IS MODERATE ON THE TIMING
OF THE PRECIPITATION, LOW TO MODERATE ON THE AMOUNT OF
PRECIPITATION, AND MODERATE TO HIGH ON THE TRENDS OF TEMPERATURES
AND WIND CHILLS.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 1230 AM EST MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1. VERY LOW WIND CHILLS CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
2. NEXT POTENTIAL WINTER WEATHER MAKER ARRIVES FOR THE WEEKEND.
3. TEMPERATURES TRENDING MILDER THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT REMAINING
BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
ON FRIDAY MORNING, THE REGION WILL STILL BE WITHIN THE PATTERN OF A
GUSTY NORTHWEST FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER LONGWAVE
TROUGH AXIS. COMBINED STILL WITH LOW TEMPERATURE VALUES, WIND CHILLS
WILL BE SLOWLY INCREASING THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS, BUT STILL IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS, MOUNTAINS, AND TEENS, PIEDMONT.
OUR NEXT WEATHER MAKER IS EXPECTED TO BE ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM THAT CROSSES THE AREA OF THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH NEW ENGLAND
BETWEEN ROUGHLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY-ISH. UNLIKE
THE MID-WEEK SYSTEM, THIS ONE DOES NOT LOOK TO HAVE ANY SOUTHERN
STREAM INTERPLAY. CURRENTLY, THIS ONE LOOKS TO BE PRIMARILY AN
UPSLOPE EVENT WITH SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG AND
WEST OF THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. UNTIL THE SYSTEM'S MAIN TROUGH
AXIS PASSES THE REGION, THERE WILL BE A SMALL AMOUNT OF WARM AIR
ADVECTION INTO THE AREA. HOWEVER, VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION
IS STILL A QUESTION MARK, IN PARTICULAR THE CONCLUSION GIVEN A VAST
VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS AMONG THE DIFFERENT DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS.
CONFIDENCE IN THE ABOVE WEATHER SCENARIO IS MODERATE TO HIGH
REGARDING WIND CHILLS, AND LOW REGARDING TIMING/COVERAGE OF SNOW
SHOWERS WITH THE WEEKEND SYSTEM.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 145 AM EST MONDAY...
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO MOSTLY BE VFR THROUGH THIS PERIOD, THOUGH
EARLY THIS MORNING WE ARE SEEING LOW STRATUS OVER THE MOUNTAINS,
GENERALLY IN THE MVFR RANGE IN UPSLOPE FLOW. CLOUDS WILL LIFT AND
BEGIN TO CLEAR LATER THIS MORNING LEADING TO SUNNY/CLEAR SKIES AS NW
FLOW BREAKS DOWN. WEST WINDS WILL DOMINATE TODAY WITH SPEEDS OF 5 TO
12 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 KTS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE BY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES. RAIN SHOWERS CHANGING
TO SNOW SHOWERS, GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS, AND MVFR/IFR CEILINGS ARE
POSSIBLE WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE DURING WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. THE MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS SHOULD SLOWLY
FADE DURING THURSDAY NIGHT, AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR
FRIDAY. ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM MAY BRING SNOW AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS TO
THE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...SH
NEAR TERM...SH
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...SH
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