117
FXUS61 KRNK 271750
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
150 PM EDT SAT JUN 27 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION UPDATED.
FORECAST UPDATED MAINLY TO ACCOUNT FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS/STORM CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON BASED ON RADAR AND AGAIN
SUNDAY. BEYOND SUNDAY STILL HEATING UP WITH LIMITED STORM
CHANCES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SCATTERED/NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT AND
AGAIN SUNDAY. LESS COVERAGE/CHANCES NEXT WEEK. SOME STORMS COULD
BE STRONG.
2) HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL TAKE PLACE BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...SHOWERS/STORMS OFF AND ON THROUGH SUNDAY, SOME
STRONG, LESS COVERAGE NEXT WEEK.
WILL SEE SEVERAL DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS/NEAR THE AREA INTO
SUNDAY AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING BACKDOOR FRONT. THIS FRONT THEN
STALLS/WEAKENS BY MONDAY.
FOR THIS AFTERNOON. MULTIPLE MCVS WILL INFLUENCE THE REGION AS
THEY PROGRESS EAST-SOUTHWARD GENERALLY TOWARD KENTUCKY AND
TENNESSEE. OUR REGION HAS BEEN UNDER A CANOPY OF CLOUDS WHICH
HAS LIMITED INSTABILITY, THOUGH SUNSHINE HAS BROKEN OUT ACROSS
OUR NC COUNTIES, AS THIS AREA SHOULD INCREASE IN INSTABILITY,
AND THEREFORE WILL BE THE AREA TO WATCH FOR STRONG STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON, CAPABLE OF WIND DAMAGE.
ANOTHER MCV/MCS SHOULD SPREAD EAST SOUTHEAST INTO THE UPPER TN
VALLEY LATE TONIGHT. SAME AS TODAY, CLOUDS WILL LIMIT STORMS,
BUT MODELS DO HAVE MORE SUNSHINE TOMORROW BUT ITS MAINLY BEHIND
THE SHORTWAVE, SO A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE BUT WOULD BE
WIDELY SCATTERED IN THE AFTERNOON.
RIDGE BUILDING NEXT WEEK WILL LIMIT STORM COVERAGE.
KEY MESSAGE 2...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL TAKE PLACE BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD BUILD NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TOWARDS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
BETWEEN MONDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS RIDGE COULD BECOME CENTERED
OVERHEAD BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WHILE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD LESSEN DUE TO CAPPING ALOFT, THE BIGGER
IMPACT WILL BE THE INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD JUMP NOTABLY BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
90S FOR MOST LOCATIONS AND EVEN A FEW SPOTS EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE MAY BREAK 100 DEGREES. HEAT INDICES COULD REACH THE LOWER
100S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. THE MODELS SHOW CONSIDERABLE
DIFFERENCES BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK, BUT THERE MAY BE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGHING ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CANADA THAT COULD CAUSE THE
RIDGE TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND RETROGRADE.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
SHOWERS/FEW STORMS WILL BE SCATTERED ABOUT THIS AFTERNOON AND
CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE TO HIGH ON ALL TERMINALS SEEING AT LEAST
A 1-3 HOUR PERIOD OF SHOWERS/POSSIBLE STORMS BETWEEN 18Z AND
00Z. EXPECT SUB-VFR AS LOW AS IFR AT TIMES IN HEAVIER DOWNPOURS.
TONIGHT, SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH BUT NOT COMPLETELY END
AND COULD SEE ANOTHER CLUSTER OF SHOWERS MOVING TOWARD BLF
BETWEEN 06 AND 12Z SUNDAY, BUT MAJORITY OF THE MODELS KEEP A
LOT OF THIS ACTIVITY SOUTH OF A BLF-DAN LINE.
WILL LIKELY SEE IFR CIGS COUPLED WITH IFR TO MVFR VSBYS
OVERNIGHT AT ALL TERMINALS, AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RAMPS UP.
SOME SCATTERING OUT BY 18Z SUNDAY IS POSSIBLE BUT FOR NOW KEPT
MOST SITES WITH BROKEN MVFR TO VFR CIGS THROUGH THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
A WAVE MOVES EAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON SO EXPECT SOME VFR, AND
STORMS SHOULD BE WIDELY SCATTERED. MONDAY, HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES INTO THE REGION, AND RIDGING LOOKS TO BUILD OVER THE
CENTRAL/EASTERN CONUS, PROVIDING SEVERAL DAYS OF LIKELY VFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
OUTSIDE ANY LATE NIGHT FOG IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...PW/WP
AVIATION...EB/WP
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