617
FXUS61 KRNK 031558
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1158 AM EDT SAT OCT 3 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION UPDATED.
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL.
KEY MESSAGES
1) PERIODS OF RAIN TODAY AND SUNDAY.
2) SEASONALLY COOL AIR ARRIVES TODAY AND PERSISTS THROUGH NEXT
WEEK...NO MORE 85 TO 90 DEGREE WEATHER.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: PERIODS OF RAIN TODAY AND SUNDAY.
KEY WORD IS PERIODS. IT WILL NOT RAIN THE ENTIRE TIME NOR
EVERYWHERE AT THE SAME TIME THIS WEEKEND. SURFACE FRONT WILL
MOVE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TODAY WITH
BAND OF FRONTAL RAIN WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS. PRIMARY
FOCUS FOR THE STEADIER RAINFALL THIS MORNING WILL BE ACROSS THE
HIGHWAY 81 AND 460 CORRIDORS WITH AMOUNTS OF 0.25 TO 0.75.
FRONT WILL THEN SAG SOUTH INTO THE CAROLINAS LATER IN THE DAY
WITH DAYTIME HEATING RESULTING IN THE ACTIVITY BECOMING MORE
SHOWERY IN NATURE AND MORE HIT/MISS WITH RESPECT TO RAINFALL
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER...AMOUNTS 0.25 OR LESS,
ALTHOUGH CAN'T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING MORE.
BY TONIGHT THE FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH
LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION, BUT REMAINING OVERCAST. A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST ALONG THE FRONT
EARLY SUNDAY AND THIS MAY BRING A SECOND ROUND OF RAIN AND DRIZZLE
ACROSS PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR SUNDAY, FAVORING THE
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN CWA OR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE FOR THE STEADIER RAINFALL...QPF OF 0.10 TO 0.25.
WHEN OVERLAPPING THE TWO RAIN FORECAST FOOTPRINTS, TODAY AND
SUNDAY, THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME FOLKS THAT GET LITTLE OR NO
MEANINGFUL RAINFALL...BASICALLY THE SAME AREA THAT HAS BEEN
DROUGHT STRICKEN FOR MONTHS...THE PIEDMONT. THE OUTLOOK FOR NEXT
WEEK IS BLEAK WITH ANOTHER STRING OF DRY DAYS MONDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2: SEASONALLY COOL AIR ARRIVES TODAY AND PERSISTS
THROUGH NEXT WEEK... NO MORE 85 TO NEAR 90 DEGREE WEATHER.
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT TODAY WILL INTRODUCE COOLER
TEMPERATURES. THE COOL DOWN WILL BE MORE IN LINE WITH WHERE WE
SHOULD BE FOR OCTOBER. DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO TREND LOWER, SO THE
AIR WILL HAVE A CHILL TO IT AT NIGHT. ONCE WE CLEAR OUT BEHIND
THE FRONT MONDAY, LOOK FOR A BROADER SWING IN DAYTIME VS
NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES...60S AND 70S DURING THE DAY VS 40S AT
NIGHT, WITH POTENTIAL TO DIP INTO THE 30S IN THE MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS WHICH MAY PROMOTE SOME PATCHY FROST.
IN GENERAL LOOKING AT A 5 DAY STRETCH OF PLEASANT FALL WEATHER
STARTING MONDAY. DEWPOINTS SHOULD BEGIN TO CREEP BACK UP NEXT
WEEKEND AHEAD OF ANOTHER FRONT. UNTIL THEN THE FORECAST LOOKS
DRY AND SEASONAL FOR THE WORK WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
A SURFACE FRONT HAD PUSHED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND WAS
STALLED OVER THE CAROLINAS. RAIN CURRENTLY OVER THE AREA WAS
ASSOCIATED WITH 850 TO 700MB FRONTOGENESIS ALONG WITH
OVERRUNNING MOISTURE ATOP A COOL AIR WEDGE THAT HAD DEVELOPED.
THIS RAIN WILL MOVE EAST AND/OR DIMINISH OVER OUR AREA THIS
EVENING. TAF SITES WERE GENERALLY HOVERING AROUND IFR TO MVFR
FOR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN STRATUS, RAIN, AND SOME FOG.
OVERNIGHT EXPECT WIDESPREAD LIFR/IFR CEILINGS WITH IFR/MVFR FOG
AT TIMES.
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST ALONG THE FRONT
EARLY SUNDAY AND THIS MAY BRING A SECOND ROUND OF RAIN AND
DRIZZLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR SUNDAY, POSSIBLY
IMPACTING LYH AND DAN MORE.
WINDS ARE GENERALLY FROM THE NORTHEAST, HOWEVER THERE IS QUITE A
BIT OF VARIABILITY WITH THE FRONTS IN THE AREA ALONG WITH RAIN
INFLUENCES. GUSTS REACHING UP TO 15-20 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG
AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE
DIMINISHING SOME OVERNIGHT. DIRECTION REMAINS NORTH-NORTHEAST
FOR LYH AND DAN TOMORROW, WITH LIGHTER AND MORE SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTERLY A DIRECTION AT THE OTHER TERMINALS. FEW GUSTS ARE
EXPECTED TOMORROW.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
LOW STRATUS, FOG, DRIZZLE, AND LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN AT TIMES
WILL BRING MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. VFR
IN HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS THEREAFTER THROUGH THURSDAY WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING RIVER VALLEY FOG.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...PM/SH
AVIATION...PM/SH
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