881
FXUS61 KRNK 061734
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
134 PM EDT TUE OCT 6 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE FORECAST AND AVIATION SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DRY WEATHER PREVAILS FOR THE REST OF THIS WEEK
WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES. NEXT RAIN CHANCE LATE IN THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...DRY WEATHER PREVAILS FOR THE REST OF THIS WEEK
WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES. NEXT RAIN CHANCE LATE IN THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE THAT WAS SETTLED JUST NORTH OF THE REGION THIS
MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE
EVENING AND INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER
NIGHT OF CLEAR SKIES AND PREDOMINANTLY CALM WINDS ACROSS THE
REGION. UNDER THESE CONDITIONS, RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL AGAIN
BE EFFICIENT ENOUGH FOR TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID
40S AREAWIDE, WITH UPPER 30S POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED MOUNTAIN
LOCATIONS SUCH AS BURKES GARDEN.
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST,
WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY TRANSITION TO OUT OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST.
IN CONJUNCTION WITH THIS, 500MB HEIGHTS WILL RISE SLIGHTLY
ACROSS THE AREA AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS SLIGHTLY OVER THE
SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL WARMTH IN TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK, WITH HIGHS CLIMBING BACK
INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS, AND LOW TO
MID 80S ACROSS PIEDMONT LOCATIONS.
BY THURSDAY NIGHT, A DRY COLD FRONT LOOKS TO PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLIDES EAST THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES REGION ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL MODERATE TEMPERATURES BACK
INTO THE LOW 70S FOR MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS AND MID TO UPPER 70S FOR
PIEDMONT LOCATIONS. OVERALL, DRY AND PREDOMINANTLY CLOUD FREE
TO PARTLY CLOUDY WEATHER LOOKS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
BY SATURDAY, THE FORECAST LOOKS TO BECOME SLIGHTLY MORE
UNCERTAIN AS IT DEPENDS HEAVILY ON THE TRACK AND TIMING OF THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE IN THE GULF. MOST
GEFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES HAVE RAIN CHANCES INCREASING LATE
SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING FROM THIS SYSTEM. THE OVERALL
TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM WILL GREATLY INFLUENCE THE AMOUNT OF
RAINFALL EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION, WITH THE GEFS MEAN
PRECIPITATION VALUES CURRENTLY FORECAST AT AROUND 1.0"-1.5"
AREAWIDE AT THIS TIME.
OVERALL, WITH THIS SYSTEM STILL NOT DEVELOPED YET, BUT CURRENTLY
FORMING, THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST FOR THE LATE WEEKEND
STILL REMAINS UNCERTAIN AND LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE REST OF
TODAY INTO EARLY TONIGHT. PATCHY LIFR FOG WILL DEVELOP AT BLF
AND LWB BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. NO OTHER IMPACTS TO
AVIATION ARE ANTICIPATED ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN
CONTROL AND THE FLOW SWINGING TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THIS WEEK. THE LONE EXCEPTION WILL BE PATCHY RIVER VALLEY FOG
AT BLF AND LWB DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. WINDS SHOULD TURN
TO THE NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY AS A FRONT PASSES TO THE NORTH. BY
SATURDAY, CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS HIGH
PRESSURE DEPARTS AND MOISTURE ARRIVES FROM THE GULF TO PROVIDE
RAIN AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...EB
AVIATION...PW
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