912
FXUS61 KRNK 082322
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
722 PM EDT MON JUN 8 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION UPDATED.
ADJUSTED PROBABILITY OF PRECIP THIS EVENING TO MAINLY ACCOUNT
FOR THE SHOWERS/FEW STORMS ACROSS NW NC. ADDED SOME FOG ACROSS
THIS AREA LATER TONIGHT AS WELL.
KEY MESSAGES
1: AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK.
REPEATED RAINFALL WILL MAKE LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING A BIGGER
CONCERN AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.
2: WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUE, WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL READINGS FOR
THE PIEDMONT AND URBAN AREAS INCLUDING ROANOKE, ESPECIALLY NEXT
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR MUCH OF
THIS WEEK. REPEATED RAINFALL WILL MAKE LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING
A BIGGER CONCERN AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WAS KEEPING A
STEADY EASTERLY FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. TO THE EAST, LOW
PRESSURE WAS ORGANIZING OVER THE TN VALLEY, DRIVEN BY SEVERAL
STRONG DISTURBANCES ALOFT. IN BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES, A
STATIONARY FRONT REMAINED STALLED OVER SW VA, AND WAS A
CONVERGENCE ZONE FOR HIGH PWAT AIR. THE FRONT WILL HELP
TRIGGER/FOCUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON OVER OUR
WESTERN MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE. AFTER THAT,
THE FIRST SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE EAST, SPREADING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING AS
EVEN MORE SHORT WAVE ENERGY CROSSES THE AREA.
THE MOIST AND CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS THEN LOOKS TO
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK ALLOWING
FOR MAINLY DAILY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION AS MUCH OF THE
UPPER DYNAMICS STAY WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS SUMMER-LIKE
REGIME DOESN'T LOOK LIKE IT BREAKS UNTIL POSSIBLY THE WEEKEND
IF THE UPPER WAVE ENERGY CAN TRANSLATE A FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT
EVEN THAT LOOKS IFFY THIS FAR OUT. AT THIS POINT SEVERE WEATHER
LOOKS UNLIKELY WITH ONLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH, BUT
WE COULD SEE SOME URBAN/SMALL STREAM AND EVENTUALLY FLASH
FLOODING AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES AND TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
INCREASE EACH DAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2: WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUE, WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL
READINGS FOR THE PIEDMONT AND URBAN AREAS INCLUDING ROANOKE,
ESPECIALLY NEXT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THE PIEDMONT AND ROANOKE AREAS COULD
HAVE DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S AND WHEN COMBINED
WITH THE HIGH DEWPTS/HUMIDITY THE RESULTANT HEAT INDICES COULD
MAKE IT INTO THE LOW 100S. FOR NOW IT LOOKS TO BE A BIT SHY OF
HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT WILL STILL BE VERY DANGEROUS FOR
ANYONE OUTDOORS.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
JUST VFR THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NUDGES IN FOR
TUESDAY WITH CIGS SINKING TO MVFR, POSSIBLY IFR AT BLF.
SHOWERS/FEW STORMS AFTER 15Z ANTICIPATED BUT EXPECT BETTER
COVERAGE ALONG/WEST OF A LWB-BCB LINE.
WINDS TURN FROM EAST/SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH THROUGH THE PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK
PATTERN STAYS FAIRLY ACTIVE WITH LINGERING FRONT INTO MIDWEEK.
ALTHOUGH WE SHOULD HAVE SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS EACH DAY NOT A
COMPLETE WASHOUT. SO OVERALL LOOK FOR MAINLY VFR LATE MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON/EVENING OUTSIDE OF STORMS WITH POTENTIAL AT
TIMES FOR SUB-VFR CIGS/VSBYS LATE AT NIGHT WITH FOG. THIS
PATTERN MAY STAY THIS WAY INTO SATURDAY AS HEAT AND HUMIDITY
INCREASE.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SH/WP
AVIATION...SH/WP
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