646
FXUS61 KRNK 211747
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
147 PM EDT MON SEP 21 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST, JUST REMOVING THUNDER FROM
WED-THU FOR MOST OF THE AREA WITH A STRONG WEDGE AND CHANGING
FROM SHOWERS TO RAIN.
LOWERED HIGH/LOW TEMPERATURES TUE THROUGH THU BY A FEW DEGREES
BELOW GUIDANCE WITH STRONG WEDGE SIGNAL.
KEY MESSAGES
1) UNSETTLED WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK AS A FRONT
MEANDERS AROUND THE AREA. TURNING COOLER MIDWEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: UNSETTLED WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK AS A
FRONT MEANDERS AROUND THE AREA. TURNING NOTICEABLY COOLER BY
WEDNESDAY.
A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA. COOLER, MORE STABLE AIR IS FILTERING IN BEHIND THE FRONT
AND THIS CAN ALREADY BE NOTED BY STRATUS AND NE WINDS ALREADY
IMPACTING AREAS INTO THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT OF VIRGINIA. WEST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE, ATMOSPHERE HAS SUFFICIENTLY DESTABILIZED
ALREADY, AND SCATTERED STRONG STORMS HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO
DEVELOP.
STRONG HEATING CONTINUES OUTSIDE OF THE COOL AIR WEDGING SOUTH,
AND A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN VA AND NORTHERN NC MAY CLIP
90F THIS AFTERNOON. AS STORMS CONTINUE TO GROW UPSCALE AND
CONGEAL, A MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCE OF RAIN CONTINUES INTO THE
OVERNIGHT. AS FAR AS HEAVY RAIN/LOCALIZED FLOODING, THERE WILL
BE A POTENTIAL FOR THAT, WITH HREF PROBABILITIES FOR MORE THAN
3" RAIN IN 12 HRS HIGHLIGHTING THE PIEDMONT OF NC TONIGHT. STILL
MODELS/ENSEMBLES ARE BLOTCHY WITH THIS COVERAGE AND NOT SEEING
A NEED FOR ANY FLOOD WATCHES, GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY AND THE
ONGOING DROUGHT. HOWEVER, THERE COULD STILL BE SOME LOCALIZED
FLOODING ISSUES WHERE BACKBUILDING OCCURS.
DEPENDING ON RAINFALL THAT FALLS THROUGH TONIGHT, ANOTHER ROUND
OF RAIN AND STORMS TOMORROW COULD POSE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SOME
LOCALIZED FLOODING, BUT AGAIN, NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO PINPOINT
ANY PARTICULAR REGION FOR A FLOOD WATCH.
THE BIGGER STORY WILL BE THE SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN WITH
POTENTIAL TO REMAIN STUCK IN THE 50S AND 60S WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. COLD AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR MULTIPLE
DAYS SO IT MAY TAKE UNTIL THE WEEKEND TO RETURN TO READINGS NEAR
NORMAL. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL LIKELY FEATURE OVERCAST
SKIES AND SOME FOG ALONG THE HIGHER RIDGES WITH PERSISTENT
DRIZZLE.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AREAS OF THUNDER THIS AFTERNOON FOR BLF/BCB/LWB/ROA. NOT AS
CERTAIN ABOUT DAN/LYH GIVEN COOLER AIR HAS ALREADY BEGUN TO MOVE
IN THERE. THIS EVENING COVERAGE OF RAIN INCREASES WITH FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT THE 00Z-06Z TIME FRAME
TO BE THE RAINIEST ESPECIALLY ALONG EAST OF THE BCB/ROA LINE.
SHOULD HAVE IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS DURING THE NIGHT SO NOT A
GOOD NIGHT TO FLY AND THIS WILL BE THE CASE INTO 18Z TUESDAY.
IFR TO LIFR WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE VALID
24HR TAF PERIOD.
AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO WEDGE SOUTH, SOME GUSTY NORTHEAST
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE VIRGINIA PIEDMONT. HAVE ADDED
GUSTS TO AROUND 20KTS OR SO AT DAN/LYH STARTING BEFORE SUNRISE
TUESDAY. BLF MAY ALSO SEE DOWNSLOPING GUSTY WINDS FROM AN
EASTERLY DIRECTION BEGINNING EARLY TUESDAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK, GUSTY NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED
PER FORECAST OF STRONG CYCLONE DEVELOPING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST. DEPENDING ON LOCATION OF THIS SYSTEM WILL DETERMINE IF WE
CLEAR OUT BY FRIDAY BUT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL, WITH POOR FLYING
WEATHER WED-THU WITH SUB VFR LIKELY. LOW CLOUDS, FOG AND DRIZZLE
WILL ALL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH MIDWEEK.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BMG/WP
AVIATION...BMG/WP
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