816
FXUS61 KRNK 051804
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
204 PM EDT SAT JUL 5 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL WILL MOVE ONSHORE IN SOUTH CAROLINA BY
SUNDAY PUSHING SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS TOWARD THE BLUE RIDGE
AND PIEDMONT. THIS SYSTEM WEAKENS EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT COMBINED
WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND A FRONT TO THE NORTH WILL KEEP
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AROUND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 150 PM EDT SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) DRY AND FAIR WEATHER THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.
2) INCREASING CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS FROM
THE OUTER BANDS OF TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL.
TRANQUIL WEATHER STILL REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
FOR THE REGION WITH NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND LOW DEW
POINTS. A FEW FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS THIS AFTERNOON WILL DIMINISH
THIS EVENING GIVING WAY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
RECENTLY NAMED TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED TONIGHT AND MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST MIDDAY SUNDAY AS A MODEST TROPICAL STORM. AS CHANTAL MOVES
CLOSER TO THE COAST TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...WILL BEGIN TO
SEE INCREASING CIRRUS AND EVENTUALLY SOME AREAS OF RAIN. THE
MAJORITY OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING, BUT
AS CHANTAL MOVES FURTHER INLAND INTO THE CAROLINAS, A FEW OUTER
RAIN BANDS AND ISOLATED EMBEDDED STORMS COULD BEGIN TO IMPACT
AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON SUNDAY.
OVERALL, IMPACTS FROM CHANTAL LOOK TO REMAIN TO A MINIMUM WITH
THE HEAVIEST RAIN/STORM POTENTIAL STAYING EAST OF THE AREA.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 130 PM EDT SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL TO POTENTIALLY GRAZE SOUTH CENTRAL VA AND
NORTH CENTRAL NC.
2) FRONTAL SYSTEM TO ARRIVE MID-NEXT WEEK AND PROVIDE ANOTHER CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS.
TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL HAS FORMED OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST AND
WILL LIKELY BE IN A WEAKENED SUB-TROPICAL STORM STATE BY THE TIME IN
TRAVELS NORTHEAST INTO NORTH CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA. CURRENT
PROJECTED PATHS OF TS CHANTAL HAS ITS CENTER TRAVELING WELL
EAST OF THE AREA, BUT STILL CLOSE ENOUGH TO INFLUENCE THE WINDS
OF THE REGION AND PROVIDE PRECIPITATION TO THE MOST
SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. WIND GUSTS WILL NOT BE IMPRESSIVE WITH
GUSTS UP TO 15 MPH BUT THEY WILL TURN NOTICEABLY
COUNTERCLOCKWISE AS CHANTAL TRAVELS NORTHEAST. RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE STORM,
BUT MAXIMUM ACCUMULATIONS MAY BE UP TO 0.25" FOR SOUTHSIDE VA
AND THE PIEDMONT REGION OF NC.
THE STORM WILL DISSIPATE AS IT HEADS AWAY FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC. A
LONG FRONTAL SYSTEM CONNECTED BY SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL
MAKE ITS WAY TO THE AREA. THE FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO STALL
AND BE WITHIN THE VICINITY OF THE REGION BY MID-NEXT WEEK.
MEANWHILE, TWO UPPER LEVEL RIDGES WILL FORM (ONE OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS AND ANOTHER OVER THE DEEP SOUTH), CREATE
WESTERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS, AND DIVERT SHORTWAVES TOWARDS THE
AREA. AS A RESULT, ANOTHER PATTERN OF DAILY THUNDERSTORMS
AND SHOWERS IS SET TO BEGIN AGAIN.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 130 PM EDT SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
1) MULTIPLE OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEXT WEEK.
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO STALL IN THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION AND BECOME STATIONARY FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK. SUBTLE CHANGES
IN ITS LOCATION IS FORECAST, BUT IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE AWAY TO
THE NORTH UNTIL AT LEAST NEXT WEEKEND. A 500MB RIDGE OVER THE DEEP
SOUTH IS EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE AND LOSE STRENGTH COMPARED TO ITS
STRONGER COUNTERPART OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. AS A RESULT, A
SEMI-STATIONARY POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND ASSIST IN DIRECTING SHORTWAVES INTO OUR
REGION. GIVEN THIS SYNOPTIC SETUP UP AS WELL AS DEW POINTS IN THE
MID-60S TO MID-70S, DAILY THUNDERSTORM AND SHOWER ACTIVITY CAN BE
EXPECTED FOR THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
WEAKER SHEAR DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WHICH MAY PLACE A CAP ON SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL, BUT IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO CONFIDENTLY SAY WHEN
OR WHAT TYPE OF SEVERE WEATHER COULD OCCUR.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 200 PM EDT SATURDAY...
OVERALL EXPECTING VFR AND LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE CURRENT 24
HOUR TAF PERIOD. SOME POCKETS OF FOG POSSIBLE AROUND DAYBREAK
SUNDAY MORNING, WITH HIGHEST CONFIDENCE AT LWB. INCREASING
CLOUDS SUNDAY MORNING AS TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL MOVES CLOSER TO
THE SOUTH CAROLINA, BUT ANY POTENTIAL IMPACTS DO NOT LOOK TO
IMPACT THE AREA UNTIL LATE SUNDAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK
MOISTURE FROM TD THREE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA, BUT MAY TEASE KDAN LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST,
MAINLY EAST OF I-95. STORM CHANCES INCREASE MIDWEEK WITH A FRONT
TO OUR NORTH.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...BMG
NEAR TERM...BMG
SHORT TERM...CG
LONG TERM...CG
AVIATION...BMG
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