053
FXUS61 KRNK 262321
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
721 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION FORECAST UPDATED.
INCREASED CLOUD COVER TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA DUE TO LOW
LEVEL INVERSION SETTING UP TRAPPING THE LOW CLOUDS IN PLACE
CURRENTLY. THIS SHOULD LIMIT ANY FOG FORMATION.
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO REMAIN ELEVATED IN WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, WITH UP TO HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH OF
RAINFALL CURRENTLY FORECAST AREAWIDE BETWEEN THE TWO DAYS.
RAINFALL TOTALS WILL CONTINUE TO CHANGE AS THE FORECAST FOR THIS
SYSTEM GETS CLOSER IN TIME.
PATCHY FOG LOOKS POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN MONDAY MORNING ACROSS THE
AREA.
KEY MESSAGES
KEY MESSAGE 1:
THERE WILL BE A FEW OPPORTUNITIES FOR PRECIPITATION THIS WEEK AS
WE TRANSITION TO A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN. HIGHER
CONFIDENCE IN A TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY EVENT PROVIDING SOME
MEANINGFUL RAINFALL, AND LOW CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION LATER
IN THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: THERE WILL BE A FEW OPPORTUNITIES FOR
PRECIPITATION THIS WEEK AS WE TRANSITION TO A MORE ACTIVE
WEATHER PATTERN. HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN A TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY EVENT
PROVIDING SOME MEANINGFUL RAINFALL, AND LOW CONFIDENCE IN
PRECIPITATION LATER IN THE WEEK.
THE REGION LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH MONDAY AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LINGER OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM LOOK TO LIFT THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION ON
MONDAY. BY TUESDAY MORNING, THE REMAINING COLD FRONT LOOKS TO
APPROACH THE REGION DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS ALLOWING FOR SOME SURFACE INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP. THIS
WILL HELP STORMS PRODUCE SOME RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA, WITH
MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS EXPECTED TO SEE HIGHER TOTALS ON TUESDAY. A
SECONDARY UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO PUSH THROUGH THE
MISSOURI, ILLINOIS, AND INDIANA ON WEDNESDAY, WHICH WILL HELP
DEEP A SURFACE LOW THAT LOOKS TO TRACK THROUGH OHIO. WITH UPPER
LEVEL FORCING MUCH CLOSER TO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY, MORE
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED, WITH 0.5" - 1.0" OF NEW
PRECIPITATION FORECAST BETWEEN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WHILE THIS
WON'T BUST THE DROUGHT ACROSS THE AREA, IT IS CERTAINLY
BENEFICIAL RAINFALL AND WILL HELP LOCAL AGRICULTURE TO START THE
GROWING SEASON.
BEHIND THIS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM, UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING
LOOKS TO SETTLE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH
AND INTO EARLY MAY. THIS LOOKS TO POTENTIALLY BRING SOME LIGHT
RAIN CHANCES TO THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS SHORTWAVE
PERTURBATIONS IN THE MUCH LARGER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWING
THROUGH THE AREA. THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALSO LOOKS TO BRING
TEMPERATURES BACK TO SEASONAL TO BELOW NORMAL VALUES FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. OVERALL CONFIDENCE ON PLACEMENT OF THESE
SHORTWAVES AND WHERE RAINFALL MAY BE PRODUCED REMAINS LOW AT
THIS TIME.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
LOOKING AT SUB-VFR CIGS AT ALL BUT BLF/DAN TONIGHT AS INVERSION
SETTING UP ABOVE THE LOW CLOUDS CURRENTLY IN PLACE, WITH
LIMITED MIXING TO SCOUR THEM OUT. THERE WILL BE TIMES WHERE
CLOUDS WILL SCATTER OUT BUT OVERALL EXPECT BKN-OVC CIGS IN THE
1-3KFT RANGE, AND UNDER 1KFT AT LWB/BCB.
ANY FOG WILL BE MAINLY MVFR THOUGH LWB COULD DROP TO IFR.
LOW CLOUDS SCATTER OUT BETWEEN 12-14Z WITH VFR THE REST OF THE
DAY, AND AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND OF 5-10KTS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
VFR WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF PATCHY FOG MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING IN A CHANCE OF
RAIN AS EARLY AS TUESDAY MORNING AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS. THE
RAIN CHANCES DO NOT DECLINE UNTIL THURSDAY, BUT SMALL (20-30%)
DAILY CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION REMAIN UNTIL THE WEEKEND.
OTHERWISE, THE FRONT WILL BRING WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST AND
LEAD TO SOME GUSTS OF 15-25 KTS.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...EB/WP
AVIATION...CG/WP
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