856
FXUS61 KRNK 131609
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1209 PM EDT WED MAY 13 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED.
CONFIDENCE INCREASING FOR RECORD-BREAKING HEAT SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
KEY MESSAGE 1: SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND
SPREAD SOUTHEAST WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THROUGH TONIGHT.
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER FOR AREAS WEST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE, WITH DAMAGING WINDS AS THE MAIN THREAT.
KEY MESSAGE 2: STARTING COOL BUT TRENDING MUCH WARMER STARTING
THIS WEEKEND. RECORD HEAT POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK. ONLY LIMITED
CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH MID WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND
SPREAD SOUTHEAST WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THROUGH TONIGHT.
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER FOR AREAS WEST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE, WITH DAMAGING WINDS AS THE MAIN THREAT.
AN AREA OF SHOWERS WAS MOVING THROUGH WV AND INTO SW VA THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG A SOUTHWARD-MOVING COLD FRONT. THE PARENT UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM DOMINATES THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH FRIDAY, AND IT
CROSSES OUR LONGITUDE EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. SO FAR CONVECTION
HAS BEEN WEAK WITH LITTLE LIGHTNING NOTED. THIS IS CONSISTENT
WITH THE MARGINAL NATURE OF THE CONVECTIVE THREAT AS NOTED BY
SPC. THE MAIN HINDRANCES LOOK TO BE A GENEROUS CAP AROUND 770MB
ON THIS MORNING'S RNK SOUNDINGS, WESTERLY WINDS THROUGHOUT THE
COLUMN, AND RELATIVELY LOW MOISTURE AND THUS INSTABILITY. WE
WILL LIKELY SEE SOME INCREASING MUCAPE AND LIGHTNING THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AS THE MAIN AREA OF SURFACE CONVERGENCE
ARRIVES. CAMS SHOW SOME SLIGHTLY MORE ROBUST CELLS DEVELOPING
NEAR THE WV/VA BORDER THIS AFTERNOON, WITH A SECOND WAVE OF
CONVECTION BEHIND IT. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS,
BUT CONVECTION WEAKENS AND DISSIPATES QUICKLY AS IT MOVES
TOWARDS THE BLUE RIDGE TONIGHT.
MEASURABLE RAINFALL (>0.01") WILL LIKELY OCCUR OVER MOST OF THE
AREA THROUGH TOMORROW, HOWEVER HIGHER AMOUNTS QUICKLY DROP OFF
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH, WITH AREAS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 460 SEEING A
MUCH BETTER CHANCE FOR DECENT AMOUNTS (55-75% CHANCE OF A 0.25"
OR MORE). AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WILL SEE MUCH LOWER
AMOUNTS. STILL, THIS WILL NOT BRING MUCH RELIEF TO THE DROUGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 2: STARTING COOL BUT TRENDING MUCH WARMER STARTING
THIS WEEKEND. RECORD HEAT POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK. ONLY LIMITED
CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH MID WEEK.
THURSDAY WILL BE A COOLER DAY WITH UPSLOPE CLOUDS LINGERING IN
THE MOUNTAINS MOST OF THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 50S
AND 60S FOR THE MOUNTAINS, WITH 60S TO LOW 70 FOR THE PIEDMONT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP US DRY AT LEAST THROUGH FRIDAY, AND TO
SOME EXTENT EVEN OVER THE WEEKEND AND BEYOND. THAT SAID, WEAK
SHORT WAVE ENERGY MAY BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS
EACH AFTERNOON. BY MID WEEK, A STRONGER AREA OF VORTICITY ALOFT
HELPS TO DEEPEN TROUGHING IN THE MID ATLANTIC REGION, AND THIS
LOOKS LIKE OUR BEST SHOT FOR PRECIPITATION. IF HIGH PRESSURE CAN
WEAKEN ENOUGH, INCREASING MOISTURE AND SURFACE HEATING SHOULD
LEAD TO MORE ROBUST CONVECTION DURING THIS TIME, ALTHOUGH MOST
LIKELY STILL SEEING GARDEN VARIETY STORMS (NOT SEVERE). BEYOND
DAY 5, THE SPREAD AT 500MB REALLY INCREASES, SO CONFIDENCE IS
LOW IN ANY DETAILS.
NAEFS IS SHOWING TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES BETWEEN 2-3 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS AS EARLY AS SUNDAY AND LASTING INTO WEDNESDAY OVER
OUR AREA, MAINLY IN THE LOWER LEVELS. A LITTLE MORE CONCERNING
IS THE HIGH VALUES ON BOTH THE ECMWF EXTREME FORECAST INDEX AND
THE SHIFT OF TAILS FOR TEMPERATURES, MEANING AN EXTREME EVENT
IS LIKELY NEXT WEEK AND IT COULD BE SIGNIFICANT, RELATIVE TO
CLIMATOLOGY.
THIS EARLY ON IN THE WARM SEASON, PEOPLE ARE NOT USED TO HOT
WEATHER YET, AND MAY NOT TAKE HEAT THREATS VERY SERIOUSLY.
HOWEVER, THIS IS WHEN PEOPLE GET INTO TROUBLE, SO CHECK ON
NEIGHBORS, STAY IN THE AC, AND LIMIT TIME OUTSIDE. ACTUAL RECORD
BREAKING HEAT LOOKS LIKELY AT VARIOUS SITES SUNDAY, MONDAY, AND
POSSIBLY TUESDAY. THANKFULLY DEW POINTS AND OVERNIGHT WILL BE
IN THE 50S AND 60S, SO IT WILL NOT BE AS UNPLEASANT AS IT COULD
BE.
AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD; HOWEVER, WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT THROUGH THIS
EVENING, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AT
ALL TERMINALS. THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY LEAD TO BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR RESTRICTIONS IF THEY MOVE WITHIN THE VICINITY
OF ANY TERMINAL. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE LEAST LIKELY AT DAN.
WINDS WILL PREDOMINANTLY BE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AT AROUND 10-15
KNOTS, WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. ONCE THE
FRONT PASSES AROUND THE 00-03 UTC TIMEFRAME, WINDS BECOME
NORTHWESTERLY, AND LOOK TO MAINTAIN WINDS IN THE 5-10 KNOT
RANGE, WITH GUSTS REMAINING UP TO 20 KNOTS OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL
BE A PERIOD THURSDAY MORNING WHEN GUSTS MAY INCREASE TO BETWEEN
20-30 KTS, WITH THE HIGHER GUSTS ON THE RIDGE LINES AND IN THE
MOUNTAINS.
UPSLOPE CLOUD DEVELOPMENT IS ALSO EXPECTED AT BLF AND LWB
STARTING EARLY THURSDAY MORNING IN THE 09-12 UTC TIMEFRAME.
THESE RESTRICTIONS AT THESE TWO TERMINALS LOOK TO REMAIN THROUGH
THE LATE MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY BEFORE LIFTING THROUGHOUT
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. BCB MAY ALSO GET CAUGHT IN THIS MVFR DECK,
BUT IT LOOKS TO STAY JUST NORTH OF ROA AND LYH AT THIS TIME.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION BY FRIDAY RETURNING VFR
CONDITIONS TO ALL LOCATIONS. ISOLATED AFTERNOON MOUNTAIN
SHOWERS/STORMS COULD AFFECT BLF/LWB EACH DAY THIS WEEKEND AS FLOW
BECOMES MORE WESTERLY AND THEN SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY ONCE AGAIN.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SH
AVIATION...SH
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