848
FXUS61 KRNK 230836
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
436 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE AVIATION FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED. THUNDER CHANCES WERE
REDUCED SIGNIFICANTLY FOR SATURDAY MORNING.
KEY MESSAGES
KEY MESSAGE 1: STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE REGION TO PROMOTE
PERIODIC SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR THE NEXT 5-7 DAYS.
KEY MESSAGE 2: IS THERE A CHANCE FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL?
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE REGION TO PROMOTE
PERIODIC SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR THE NEXT 5-7 DAYS.
A SLOW-MOVING, WAVY FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR
ACTIVE WEATHER ACROSS THE CENTRAL-EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY.
THE SYSTEM WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FAVORING BOTH DIURNAL AND NOCTURNAL ACTIVITY. DUE TO THE COOL
WEDGE IN PLACE, THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE REDUCED SIGNIFICANTLY
FOR OUR FORECAST AREA. A MID-LEVEL WAVE IS ENHANCING THE
EFFICIENCY OF RAIN PROCESSES TODAY AS WELL. FURTHER SOUTH WHERE
THE IMPACT OF CAD IS LIMITED, AND WARMER AIR, AS WELL AS BREAKS
IN CLOUDS, WILL ALLOW DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION TO BE MUCH
STRONGER. THUNDER CHANCES WILL BE GREATER IN NC AND AREAS SOUTH
AND WEST.
AS ANY THUNDER PRODUCING CONVECTION STRENGTHENS, IT WILL BE
CAUGHT IN THE MEAN FLOW AND POTENTIALLY DRIFT INTO THE COOLER
MORE STABLE REGION. BECAUSE OF THIS RISK, THE CHANCES OF THUNDER
HAVE NOT BEEN REDUCED TO ZERO IN THE WEDGED REGION.
COME SUNDAY AND MONDAY, THE ADDITIONAL MID-LEVEL WAVE WILL HAVE
PASSED, CAUSING THE COVERAGE OF RAIN SHOWERS TO BE MORE
SCATTERED THAN WIDESPREAD, THOUGH MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD EXPECT
SOME PRECIP AT SOME POINT DURING THOSE DAYS.
WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURE, NOT MUCH DIURNAL/NOCTURNAL
DIFFERENCE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT, READINGS REMAINING IN THE
50S AND 60S AS LONG AS WE ARE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE FRONT.
ONCE WE TRANSITION TO THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE FRONT WE WILL HAVE
OPPORTUNITY TO RETURN TO 70S/80S FOR HIGHS AND 50S/60S FOR LOWS.
KEY MESSAGE 2: IS THERE A CHANCE FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL?
IN SPITE OF THE DROUGHT, NEVER SAY NEVER. YES THERE IS A
MARGINAL RISK FOR ISOLATED OCCURRENCES OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
DURING THE 5-7 DAY PERIOD. THIS WOULD MOSTLY LIKELY COME IN THE
FORM OF AN INTENSE DOWNPOUR FROM A THUNDERSTORM, WHICH IS
POSSIBLE GIVEN THE PWAT FORECAST OF 1.50 TO 2.00 INCHES. RAIN
RATES OF 2 TO 4 INCHES AN HOUR WOULD BE COMMON WITHIN THIS
ENVIRONMENT, SO THERE WILL BE SOME FROG STRANGLERS OUT
THERE...JUST NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT A GREATER FLOOD CONCERN OR
SOMETHING THAT WOULD INVOLVE THE RIVERS. BOTTOM LINE...WE NEED
THE RAIN, BUT BE ON THE LOOK OUT FOR PONDING OF WATER IN POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS, AND RESCUE THOSE PROVERBIAL FROGS IF NEED BE.
AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A STABLE WEDGE IS CONTROLLING MOST OF THE WEATHER DURING THIS 24
HOUR PERIOD. IT IS CAUSING LOW CIGS IN THE LIFR/IFR LEVELS AT
ALMOST ALL TIMES OF THE DAY. WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS WITH
SCATTERED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO DETERIORATE FLIGHT
CONDITIONS. DURING NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS, ALSO EXPECT
FOG TO CROP UP AS A RESULT OF HIGH LEVELS OF MOISTURE NEAR THE
SURFACE AND A STABLE ENVIRONMENT. WINDS ARE GENERALLY LIGHT AND
VARIABLE, AROUND 5KT OR LESS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
POOR FLYING WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
DUE TO A COOL EASTERLY FLOW WEDGED AGAINST THE EASTERN SLOPES OF
THE BLUE RIDGE. FOG APPEARS LIKELY AGAIN DURING SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING. LIFR/IFR CEILINGS SHOULD LINGER INTO
SUNDAY, BUT THE FLOW SHOULD BEGIN TO VEER TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST
AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD TO ERODE THE COOL WEDGE SOMETIME
BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MEMORIAL DAY. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH SUB-VFR CEILINGS COULD PERSIST THROUGH
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT STALLS
OVERHEAD.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...PW/VFJ
AVIATION...PW/VFJ
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