149
FXUS61 KRNK 131743
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
143 PM EDT TUE OCT 13 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) LOOK FOR POSSIBLE RECORD HIGHS WEDNESDAY.
2) FRONT ARRIVES THURSDAY WITH MAINLY A MOUNTAIN THREAT OF
SHOWERS/FEW STORMS, FOLLOWED BY A STRONGER FRONT FRIDAY WITH
MUCH COOLER WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: POSSIBLE RECORD HIGHS WEDNESDAY.
LOOK FOR 5H HEIGHTS TO BUILD HEAD INTO MIDWEEK WITH WESTERLY
FLOW AIDING IN HEATING UP THE LOWER LEVELS. HIGHS WEDNESDAY ARE
LIKELY TO REACH CLOSE TO OR EVEN EXCEED RECORDS. SEE CLIMATE
SECTION BELOW.
KEY MESSAGE 2...FRONT ARRIVES THURSDAY WITH MAINLY A MOUNTAIN
THREAT OF SHOWERS/FEW STORMS, FOLLOWED BY A STRONGER FRONT
FRIDAY WITH MUCH COOLER WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND.
UPPER RIDGE STARTS TO FLATTEN AHEAD OF A FRONT THURSDAY. MODELS
ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE HAVING A BETTER
PROBABILITY FOR HAVING MEASURABLE SHOWERS/FEW STORMS COMPARED TO
THE PIEDMONT. SOME MODEST INSTABILITY MAY OCCUR, BUT OVERALL
MORE ORGANIZED AND STRONGER CONVECTION LOOKS TO STAY NORTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA. SOME SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE ALSO SHOWING A
BACKDOOR FRONT SINKING INTO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY, WHICH COULD KEEP TEMPERATURES A BIT
COOLER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.
A MUCH STRONGER FRONT ARRIVES ON FRIDAY, WITH A SHARP COOL DOWN
FOR THE WEEKEND FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. NOT MUCH RAIN
WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRIDAY FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH THE
GREATEST CHANCE REMAINING OVER THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS. MUCH MORE
ISOLATED CHANCE EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. THIS COULD BE THE FIRST
FREEZE OF THE SEASON FOR THE MOUNTAINS WITH FROST IN THE
PIEDMONT ON SUNDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
MORNING MOUNTAIN/RIVER VALLEY FOG/STATUS HAS DISSIPATED. THIS
MOISTURE IS NOW BEING REDISTRIBUTED AT THE LCL AS SOME ISOLATED
CUMULUS AROUND 4000 FT AGL IN AREAS NORTH OF KLWB AND BETWEEN KTNB
AND KHLX. OTHER SPOTTY CU OF SIMILAR ALTITUDE ARE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS, BUT NOT ENOUGH DEVELOPMENT
IS EXPECTED TO CONSTITUTE A BKN-OVC CEILING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AGAIN, SOME
RIVER/MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG/STATUS IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING, BUT NOT AS EXPANSIVE OF COVERAGE AS THIS MORNING.
LATE TONIGHT 850MB WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO ABOUT 25 TO 30
KTS FROM THE NORTHWEST, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF KROA.
THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME LLWS WITHIN THIS REGION OF THE AREA THROUGH
SUNRISE, BEFORE SURFACE HEATING START TO MIX THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
OTHER THAN SOME BRIEF LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING RIVER/VALLEY FOG, VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT, A COLD FRONT WILL MAKE SLOW
PROGRESS INTO AND ACROSS OUR REGION. LOOK FOR A RETURN OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND SOME POCKETS OF SOME SUB-VFR CONDITIONS, PRIMARILY
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.
BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT, LOOK FOR AN ABRUPT WIND SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST AND GUSTY CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE. THESE STRONGER
WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY VEER NORTH AND DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY
SATURDAY. DRY WEATHER AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO
SUNDAY.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGHS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY OCTOBER 14TH.
SITE RECORD HIGH/YEAR FORECAST HIGH
ROANOKE 86/1941 88
LYNCHBURG 85/1985 87
DANVILLE 87/1940 89
BLACKSBURG 84/1962 83
BLUEFIELD 82/1954 79
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BMG/WP
AVIATION...DS
CLIMATE...WP
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