177
FXUS61 KRNK 261840
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
240 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED.
FORECAST DISCUSSION UPDATED.
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR THE WHOLE REGION
ON THURSDAY DUE TO THE HAZARD OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
2) HOT CONDITIONS RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY.
CAM MODELS STILL SUGGEST SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE AND INTO THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS TODAY,
BUT THE OVERALL LIKELIHOOD FOR PRECIPITATION IS LOW. DEW POINTS
HAVE RECENTLY CRAWLED BACK INTO THE LOWER 60S, BUT THE
INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE HIGH AS WELL AS LACK OF ANY SYNOPTIC LIFT
WILL PUT A CAP ON ANY SERIOUS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
THURSDAY IS A DIFFERENT STORY AS MOISTURE RECOVERY IS EXPECTED
TO BE COMPLETE WITH DEW POINTS RETURNING BACK TO THE 60S AND 70S
BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WITH AIR TEMPERATURES ALSO INCREASING TO
THE MID-80S TO LOWER 90S, THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. CONVECTION WILL ALSO BE ASSISTED BY
VORTICITY THAT GETS SENT TO OUR REGION FROM A SHORTWAVE THAT
DEVELOPS TO OUR SOUTHWEST IN TENNESSEE. THIS WAVE IS PROJECTED
TO INTERSECT THE TN/NC BORDER BUT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
LIKELY SEND SOME OF ITS VORTICITY MAXIMA TO OUR REGION.
EFFECTIVE WIND SHEAR OF 25-35 KNOTS COUPLED WITH SBCAPE VALUES
UP TO 2500 J/KG WILL SUPPORT THE PRODUCTION AND ORGANIZATION OF
CLUSTER THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND WET MICROBURSTS. THE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE
WEATHER FOR THURSDAY DUE TO THESE HAZARDS.
A FLOOD THREAT IS POSSIBLE AS WELL GIVEN PWATS ALSO REBUILD BACK UP
TO 1.75" BY TOMORROW. REPEATED ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE
THE RISK OF FLASH FLOODING IN VULNERABLE AND LOCALIZED AREAS. A
COMPONENT OF THE FLOOD CONCERN, HOWEVER, IS DUE TO A COLD FRONT
THAT IS PROJECTED TO ARRIVE SHORTLY AFTER THURSDAY'S STORMS.
MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED TO NARROW DOWN THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM
BUT IT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO ARRIVE BETWEEN LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IT WILL
ARRIVE EARLY ENOUGH TO AFFECT THURSDAY AFTERNOON'S CONVECTION.
NEVERTHELESS, IT MAY TRAIL GETTING OVER HERE AND KEEP
PRECIPITATION CHANCES GOING WELL INTO FRIDAY MORNING. FOR NOW,
THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A MARGINAL RISK OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR THURSDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2: HOT CONDITIONS RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FOLLOWING THE STORMS, A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED
STATES WILL MIGRATE TOWARDS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THE
CENTER OF THIS AIR MASS WILL LIKELY BE JUST NORTH ENOUGH TO PREVENT
ANY RIDGE RIDERS FROM BRINGING STORMS TO OUR AREA. THE INCREASE
IN 500MB HEIGHTS WILL RESULT IN WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID-80S TO UPPER 90S. THE HEAT INDICES MAY REACH INTO THE
LOWER 100S IN THE PIEDMONT BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS FORECAST
PERIOD IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS OUT BUT WILL BE MONITORED FOR ANY
POTENTIAL HEAT RISKS TO THE PUBLIC.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
LOW CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION CONCENTRATED TO THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE
MOUNTAINS WILL LIKELY MEAN VFR STATUS FOR THE TERMINALS FOR THE REST
OF THE DAY AND EVENING. CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING
THE DAY AS MOISTURE SLOWLY BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION. OVERNIGHT
FOG IS LIKELY AGAIN FOR KBCB AND KLWB WITH KLWB HAVING THE THICKEST
FOG AND VISIBILITIES OF LESS THAN A MILE. THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE OF
OVERNIGHT FOG FOR KBLF BUT THERE IS LESS CONFIDENCE ON THIS SPECIFIC
PART OF THE FORECAST. SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS MORNINGS, THE TIMING OF
THE FOG IS PROBABLY GOING TO BE BETWEEN 9-13Z. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
TO CALM OVERNIGHT WITH WESTERLY WINDS PICKING UP BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. SCATTERED CLOUD COVER WILL PERSIST AND MAY INCREASE
BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AS PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE
BY 18Z THURSDAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL HAVE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. STORMS WILL BE SCATTERED IN NATURE AND THREATEN EACH
TERMINAL WITH LOWER VISIBILITIES DUE TO HEAVY RAIN. SOME OF THESE
STORMS MAY ORGANIZE ENOUGH TO DELIVER DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THE TIME
FRAME FOR PRECIPITATION MAY EXTEND INTO FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT
TRAILING THURSDAY'S STORMS IS SET TO ARRIVE SOMETIME BETWEEN
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT BUT ITS ARRIVAL TIME MAY
MEAN EITHER A GAP BETWEEN PRECIPITATION PERIODS OR A LONG
DURATION OF RAINFALL CHANCES ESPECIALLY IF THE FRONT STALLS OVER
US. CURRENTLY, THE FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO DRASTICALLY
INCREASE WIND GUSTS IN THE REGION. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, MID-LEVEL
RIDGING WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AND RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE
ACROSS ALL AIRPORTS.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CG
AVIATION...CG
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