846
FXUS61 KRNK 012313
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
613 PM EST SUN FEB 1 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ALL EXISTING EXTREME COLD WARNINGS AND WIND ADVISORIES HAVE
BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.
A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR TONIGHT FOR THE
MOUNTAINS, WHERE WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS 10 BELOW ZERO COULD OCCUR
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
BLACK ICE POTENTIAL TONIGHT FROM ANY REFREEZING OF SURFACES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) COLD TEMPERATURES AGAIN TONIGHT, WITH LOWS INTO THE TEENS AND
SINGLE DIGITS. BELOW ZERO WIND CHILLS FOR THE MOUNTAINS.
2) SUBSEQUENT SYSTEMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS WEEK, THOUGH
THEY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE HIGHLY IMPACTFUL, DESPITE POSSIBLE
WINTER WEATHER. TEMPERATURES BRIEFLY RISE TO ABOVE FREEZING BEFORE
TURNING COLD AGAIN LATE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: COLD TEMPERATURES AGAIN TONIGHT, WITH LOWS INTO THE TEENS AND
SINGLE DIGITS. BELOW ZERO WIND CHILLS FOR THE MOUNTAINS.
COLD AIR REMAINS FIRMLY IN PLACE TODAY WITH A DEEP TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. NEARLY THE ENTIRE SERVICE AREA
STAYING BELOW 32F..THE MOUNTAINS WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO BREAK
20F. WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED, BUT SHOULD BE 30MPH OR LESS,
CONTINUING TO LESSEN OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD
EAST. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT QUICKLY FALL AGAIN INTO THE TEENS
AND SINGLE DIGITS. EVEN WITH LIGHTER WINDS, WIND CHILLS COULD
STILL FALL TO 10 BELOW ZERO FOR THE MOUNTAINS, THEREFORE HAVE
DECIDED TO ISSUE A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY TONIGHT ALONG AND WEST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
LIMITED MELTING TODAY, BUT SOME PAVEMENT AREAS HAVE THAWED AND
ANYTHING LIQUID NOW WILL FREEZE TONIGHT, RESULTING IN A BLACK
ICE THREAT. THIS WILL ESPECIALLY BE A CONCERN FOR SECONDARY
ROADWAYS. BLOWING SNOW ALSO CONTINUES TO BE AN ISSUE, WHICH
COULD CAUSE ICY PATCHES ON PREVIOUSLY CLEARED ROADS.
TEMPERATURES A BIT WARMER ON MONDAY, BUT WITH RECENT SNOWPACK,
HAVE TRENDED HIGHS BELOW NBM GUIDANCE, WITH THE MOUNTAINS
REMAINING AT OR BELOW FREEZING AGAIN. EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS TO
RISE INTO THE MID/UPPER 30S.
KEY MESSAGE 2...SUBSEQUENT SYSTEMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS
WEEK, THOUGH THEY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE HIGHLY IMPACTFUL, DESPITE
POSSIBLE WINTER WEATHER. TEMPERATURES BRIEFLY RISE TO ABOVE FREEZING
BEFORE TURNING COLD AGAIN LATE WEEK.
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN REMAINS SIMILAR AS UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHS WILL
CONTINUE TO SWING DOWN ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS THIS WEEK, THOUGH NO
SIGNIFICANT SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM AND IMPACT THE AREA.
HOWEVER, THE FIRST TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA LATE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY, WITH A SURFACE LOW MOVING IN FROM THE WEST AS WELL.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO JUST ABOVE FREEZING AS SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF THE FRONT. MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD RECEIVE
SOME PRECIPITATION, THOUGH HIGHER CHANCES WILL BE ALONG/WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE. DUE TO THE RELATIVELY WARMER TEMPERATURES, A RAIN SNOW
MIX IS EXPECTED, WITH MORE RAIN IN THE PIEDMONT AND MORE SNOW IN THE
MOUNTAINS. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE VERY LIGHT, WITH A DUSTING TO
A FEW TENTHS POSSIBLE ALONG/WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE, AND AROUND AN
INCH POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE SYSTEM QUICKLY MOVES
THROUGH, MOSTLY CLEARING OUT BY WEDNESDAY MORNING, THOUGH A FEW
LINGERING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS LAST DURING THE DAY.
A CLIPPER SYSTEM THEN SWING THROUGH ON FRIDAY, THOUGH MOST OF THE
ENERGY STAYS OFF TO OUR NORTH. STILL, ENOUGH WILL MAKE IT FAR ENOUGH
SOUTH FOR SNOW SHOWERS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. RAIN MAY BEGIN TO MIX
IN LATER IN THE DAY, BUT AGAIN, ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW WOULD BE
LIGHT. THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH BY SATURDAY MORNING, WITH A FEW
LINGERING UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH EVENING.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE BIGGEST STORY, AS THE SNOW/ICE
ON THE GROUND ALONG WITH THE CONTINUED SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL KEEP
HIGHS WELL BELOW NORMAL. TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY LOOK TO BE THE WARMEST
DAYS, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S. THIS WILL ALLOW SOME
MELTING TO OCCUR, BUT ANY MELTED SNOW/ICE WILL REFREEZE AT NIGHT.
AFTER THE SECOND SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY, MUCH COLDER AIR MOVES
IN ONCE AGAIN, WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S/30S AND LOWS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS AND LOW TEENS SUNDAY MORNING. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP SNOW/ICE ON THE GROUND AND CAUSE SOME SLICK SPOTS
ON THE ROADS WHERE REFREEZING OCCURS.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE NOW BEING OBSERVED AT ALL TERMINALS THIS
EVENING, AND WINDS ARE FINALLY STARTING TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE
AREA. WINDS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WILL GENERALLY REMAIN OUT OF
THE WEST/NORTHWEST AT AROUND 5-10 KNOTS. KDAN MAY SLOWLY START
TO TRANSITION TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS BY THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD. OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD, WITH SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE
REGION LATE MONDAY EVENING. THESE CLOUDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
HAVE ANY RESTRICTIONS AT THIS TIME.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
VFR THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK EAST
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY, BRINGING A CHANCE OF SUB-VFR AND
LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION. DRY CONDITIONS AGAIN THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY WITH VFR EXPECTED.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST MONDAY FOR VAZ007-009>020.
NC...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST MONDAY FOR NCZ001-002-018.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR NCZ003>006-
019-020.
WV...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST MONDAY FOR WVZ042>044.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST MONDAY FOR WVZ507-508.
DISCUSSION...BMG/JCB
AVIATION...BMG/EB
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