244
FXUS61 KRNK 081747
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
147 PM EDT THU OCT 8 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
HAVE MAINTAINED LOWER TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY GIVEN A STRONG
WEDGING SIGNAL ON MODEL GUIDANCE.
GUSTY WIND POTENTIAL IS INCREASING FOR MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS,
ESPECIALLY ON WESTWARD FACING SLOPES, WITH A STRONG
SOUTHEASTERLY LLJ MOVING OVER THE REGION.
18Z AVIATION UPDATED
KEY MESSAGES
1) DRY THROUGH FRIDAY, THEN RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE ISAIAS
ARRIVES OVER THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...DRY THROUGH FRIDAY, THEN RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH
HURRICANE ISAIAS ARRIVES OVER THE WEEKEND.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH A
SLIGHT RETREAT TO THE NORTH AND EAST BY FRIDAY EVENING. AS THIS
HIGH PRESSURE RETREATS TO THE NORTHEAST TO BE CENTERED OVER NEW
YORK AND NEW ENGLAND BY SATURDAY MORNING, SURFACE WEDGING LOOKS
TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION, WITH COOLER NORTHEAST FLOW
FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE PIEDMONT, WITH EAST/SOUTHEAST
FLOW DEVELOPING OVER SE WEST VIRGINIA AND AREAS PREDOMINANTLY
WEST OF I-77 IN VIRGINIA.
THIS WILL MAINTAIN COOLER TEMPERATURES OVER THE REGION AS
MOISTURE FROM LIKELY TROPICAL DEPRESSION ISAIAS PUSHES INTO THE
REGION. SIMILAR TO WINTER SETUPS WITH LOWS TRACKING ON THE WEST
SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS, THE EAST SIDE LOOKS TO REMAIN COOL,
WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT OF WARM MOIST AIR RIDING OVER THE COOLER
DRIER AIR AT THE SURFACE. IN THIS INSTANCE, THE TROPICAL
MOISTURE WILL LIKELY LEAD TO MUCH MORE IMPRESSIVE RAINFALL
TOTALS OVER THE REGION, WITH WIDESPREAD 1-3 INCHES EXPECTED
OVER THE REGION, WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER TOTALS OF 2-4 INCHES
POSSIBLE. FAVORED REGIONS FOR THESE HIGHER TOTALS LOOK TO BE
ALONG PORTIONS OF THE BLUE RIDGE AS A 50-60 SOUTHEASTERLY 850MB
LLJ PUSHES INTO THE AREA AS THE REMNANTS OF ISAIAS MOVE INTO
TENNESSEE VALLEY. UPSLOPE FLOW FROM THIS LLJ MAY INCREASE LOCAL
TOTALS RIGHT ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE.
ALONG WITH THESE RAINFALL TOTALS, WHICH WILL INEVITABLY BE
BENEFICIAL TO THE REGION, THE AFOREMENTIONED 850MB LLJ MAY LEAD
TO A DOWNSLOPE WIND EVENT FOR AREAS IN SE WEST VIRGINIA AND SW
VIRGINIA. RIGHT NOW, FORECAST WIND GUSTS ARE JUST BELOW WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA; HOWEVER, AS HIGH RES CAM GUIDANCE COMES INTO
RANGE, IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THESE FORECASTED WIND GUSTS MAY
INCREASE ACROSS MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS EVEN AS WHATS LEFT OF ISAIAS
CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES NEAR THE REGION.
BY LATE MONDAY, ALL REMNANTS OF ISAIAS LOOK TO BE WELL EAST OF
THE REGION, WITH DRY CONDITIONS RETURNING AREAWIDE ONCE AGAIN. A
POSSIBLE DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE BY THE TUESDAY NIGHT TIMEFRAME
LOOKS TO DROP TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WORK WEEK. OVERALL, THE REGION WILL LIKELY NOT SEE ANY RAIN
CHANCES THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK AFTER THE REMNANTS FROM
ISAIAS MOVE THROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
PREDOMINANTLY CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD FOR ALL TERMINALS. THERE MAY BE
SOME BRIEF RIVER VALLEY FOG THAT COULD IMPACT LWB FOR 1-2 HOURS
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING; HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS LOW GIVEN THIS
MORNING'S RIVER VALLEY FOG DID NOT PRODUCE AS LOW RESTRICTIONS
AS WAS FORECAST. GIVEN THIS, A PERSISTENCE FORECAST WILL BE THE
ISSUED FOR LWB FOR FRIDAY MORNING, WITH MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE
GIVEN SIMILAR METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS, WITH EVEN LOWER
DEWPOINTS FORECAST TO BE IN PLACE.
OVERALL, EXPECT LIGHT WINDS OF AROUND 5 KNOTS OR LESS TO
TRANSITION FROM NORTHWESTERLY TO NORTHWEST/NORTHERLY WINDS BY
FRIDAY MID MORNING FROM 15-18 UTC.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
THE LONE EXCEPTION WILL BE PATCHY RIVER VALLEY FOG AT BCB AND
LWB DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. WIDESPREAD RAIN ARRIVES
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY. SUB-VFR IS
LIKELY DURING THIS PERIOD AT ALL TERMINALS. GUSTY NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT SATURDAY AND INTO SUNDAY FOR THE
PIEDMONT, AND EAST/SOUTHEAST FOR MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS. SOME GUSTS
TO 30KTS POSSIBLE FOR BLF AND LWB. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY
IMPROVE ON MONDAY.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...EB
AVIATION...EB/BMG
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