637
FXUS61 KRNK 142309
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
709 PM EDT MON SEP 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDWEEK, WITH RAIN CHANCES LATE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDWEEK, WITH RAIN
CHANCES LATE WEEK.
A LARGER AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY
PROGRESSING ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES TODAY TODAY. A COLD
FRONT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSED THROUGH
THE AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, WHICH HAS LEAD TO MUCH
DRIER AIR ADVECTING INTO THE REGION. GIVEN THE FORECASTED
PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE TROUGH, UPPER LEVEL RIDGING LOOKS TO
BUILD OVER THE REGION BY THIS EVENING. AS A RESULT, TEMPERATURES
LOOK TO CONTINUE TO REMAIN ELEVATED IN THE LOW TO MID 80S
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS, AND MID TO UPPER 80S IN THE PIEDMONT. BY
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK, DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
INCREASE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE, AND
LOW TO MID 90S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES LOOK
TO DROP INTO THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS, WHICH WILL MAKE FOR MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE
WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK;
HOWEVER, LOW TO MID 60S DEWPOINTS LOOK TO RETURN BY THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK AS SOUTHERLY FLOW ADVECTS MOISTURE BACK INTO THE
REGION.
EMBEDDED UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES ROUNDING THE TOP OF
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE LOOKS TO BRING LOW RAIN CHANCES BACK INTO
THE FORECAST BY THURSDAY FOR PRIMARILY MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS. THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE LOOKS TO POSSIBLY BREAK DOWN BY
NEXT WEEKEND, WITH NO SIGNIFICANT RAIN CHANCES EXPECTED PRIOR
TO THIS.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS TAF PERIOD. EXCEPTION
COULD BE SOME IFR OR LOWER FOG/STRATUS AT LWB IN THE 08-13Z
TIME FRAME. DRIER AIR MAY LIMIT THIS HOWEVER, BUT WITH A LIGHT
EAST WIND FROM THE RIVER, CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE TO AT LEAST
HAVE A TEMPO GROUP OF IFR OR WORSE.
WINDS WILL TURN FROM THE NORTH/NORTHEAST TO THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH TUESDAY, BUT REMAIN UNDER 10KTS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
MAINLY VFR EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY, OUTSIDE OF ANY LATE
NIGHT FOG AT THE USUAL PLACES LIKE LWB/BCB.
SHOWER/STORM CHANCES START TO INCREASE THU-SAT ESPECIALLY OVER
THE MOUNTAINS, BUT EVEN ASIDE FROM THOSE APPEARS VFR WILL BE THE
MAIN FLIGHT RULE MOST OF THE TIME.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...EB
AVIATION...EB/WP
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