668
FXUS61 KRNK 221028
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
628 AM EDT WED JUL 22 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TOMORROW FOR MOST OF THE
AREA ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE 460 CORRIDOR.
KEY MESSAGES
1) ORGANIZED EAST/WEST ORIENTATED LINE OF STORMS LOOKS TO
DEVELOP ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE 460 CORRIDOR IN VIRGINIA, LEADING
TO THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME FLASH FLOODING, STRONG DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS, AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS.
2) TEMPERATURES SHOULD TURN MORE SEASONABLE BY THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK AFTER A FRONTAL PASSAGE.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...ORGANIZED EAST/WEST ORIENTATED LINE OF STORMS
LOOKS TO DEVELOP ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE 460 CORRIDOR IN
VIRGINIA, LEADING TO THE POSSIBILITY FOR FLASH FLOODING, STRONG
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT PRODUCED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO LAY OUT IN
AN EAST/WEST ORIENTATION IN THE VICINITY OF THE 460 CORRIDOR
TODAY. RECENT CAM GUIDANCE APPEARS TO BE IN AGREEMENT OF THIS
ORGANIZED LINE OF TRAINING STORMS BETWEEN THE 460 CORRIDOR AND
THE VA/NC BORDER. GIVEN THIS STRONG MODEL AGREEMENT IN CAM
GUIDANCE, THE FLOOD WATCH WILL BE CONTINUED THROUGH THE NRV AND
SURROUNDING COUNTIES AND EAST INTO THE PIEDMONTS OF NC/VA
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING
IN THIS ZONE. ON THE EAST SIDE OF THIS BOUNDARY WHERE THE
ENVIRONMENT WILL HAVE MORE INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH, AND WINDS
AT THE SURFACE LOOK TO REMAIN BACKED, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND A TORNADO OR TWO. WHILE THE
ENVIRONMENT DOES NOT LOOK AS FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND
TORNADOES COMPARED TO TUESDAY, THERE IS STILL A RISK AS DEEP
LAYER SHEAR IN THE 0-6KM COLUMN REMAINS ELEVATED AT AROUND
30-40 KNOTS, 0-3 KM SRH VALUES LOOK TO REMAIN IN THE 100 M2/S2
THRESHOLD, AND SCAPE VALUES LOOK TO REMAIN IN THE 1500-2000 J/KG
RANGE. THESE VALUES, WHILE NOT AS IMPRESSIVE AS TUESDAYS ARE
STILL ELEVATED ENOUGH TO CAUSE CONCERN ACROSS PIEDMONT
LOCATIONS.
OVERALL, THE LARGEST CONCERN WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE
BOUNDARY WILL BE FLASH FLOODING AS STORMS LOOK TO TRAIN IN AN
EAST/WEST ORIENTATION THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING AND AFTERNOON
TIMEFRAME. PWATS IN THE 1.8-2.2 INCH RANGE WILL MAKE FOR
EXTREMELY EFFICIENT RAINFALL RATES ACROSS THE AREA, MAKING 4-6
INCH PER HOUR RATES VERY COMMON. WITH RATES THIS HIGH, AND
STORMS TRAINING, THERE IS A HIGH LIKELIHOOD THAT FLASH FLOODING
WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED ZONE TODAY. IT IS NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION THAT A STRIPE OR ZONE OF 2 TO LOCALLY 5 INCHES
WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE TO OCCUR ALONG/NORTH OF THE VA/NC
BORDER COUNTIES TODAY WITH REPEATED STORMS OVER THE SAME
LOCATIONS. NOT UNTIL AFTER SUNSET DO STORMS START TO FINALLY
LOOK TO PUSH EAST INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN OF VIRGINIA AND NORTH
CAROLINA.
KEY MESSAGE 2...TEMPERATURES SHOULD TURN MORE SEASONABLE BY THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AFTER A FRONTAL PASSAGE.
AFTER THE FRONT FINALLY PUSHES COMPLETELY THROUGH THE AREA
TONIGHT, THE AREA LOOKS TO DRY OUT AND COOL DOWN FOR A COUPLE OF
DAYS TO END THE WORK WEEK. BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT,
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING LOOKS TO SETTLE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP 500MB HEIGHTS MUCH
LOWER ACROSS THE REGION LEADING TO OVERALL COOLER TEMPERATURES.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE COMING OUT OF CANADA WILL ALSO LOWER
DEWPOINTS INTO THE 50S AND 60S WHICH WILL MAKE IT FEEL MUCH MORE
COMFORTABLE OUTSIDE DURING THE PEAK HEAT OF THE DAY. HIGHS LOOK
TO ONLY CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS, AND
MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT STARTING THURSDAY, AND
CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE TEMPERATURES LOOK TO INCREASE
AGAIN ON SUNDAY OF NEXT WEEK. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
BEYOND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY NIGHT WILL PRIMARILY BE
RELEGATED TO MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS, AND LOOK TO REMAIN ISOLATED,
WHERE OROGRAPHICAL LIFT CAN ENHANCE DEVELOPMENT DURING PEAK
HEATING. WHILE CHANCES LOOK TO BE MINIMAL ON THURSDAY, THEY
SLOWLY START TO INCREASE ON FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
MVFR TO IFR RESTRICTIONS HAVE EXPANDED TO INCLUDE BCB AND BLF
THIS MORNING, WITH PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS BEING OBSERVED AT
THE REMAINING TERMINALS THIS MORNING. ALONG WITH THESE
RESTRICTIONS, THERE IS A LINE OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING THAT MAY LEAD TO BRIEF RESTRICTIONS
IF THEY MOVE OVER OR NEAR ANY TERMINALS. CAM GUIDANCE HAS THIS
LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN A EAST/WEST ORIENTATION
ALONG THE 460 CORRIDOR IN VIRGINIA, AND PROGRESSING SOUTHEAST
THROUGHOUT THE MID MORNING HOURS TODAY. THIS LINE OF STORMS
LOOKS TO DIP SOUTH TOWARDS THE VA/NC STATE LINE BY THE LATE
MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. DURING THIS TIME, MVFR TO IFR
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TERMINALS LIKE BLF, LYH, ROA,
BCB AND DAN.
WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN GUSTY ALONG THIS BOUNDARY UP
TO 15-20 KNOT GUSTS, WHILE SUSTAINED WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN AROUND
5-10 KNOTS DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT AND MID
MORNING HOURS. THESE WINDS WILL REMAIN PREDOMINANTLY OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE PERIOD BEFORE FINALLY TRANSITIONING OUT OF
THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS OF 00 UTC.
THESE AFOREMENTIONED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK
TO LINGER ALONG AND NORTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, LIKELY LEADING TO OFF AND ON MVFR TO IFR
RESTRICTIONS AND THE CHANCES FOR THUNDER THROUGH AT LEAST 03 UTC
AT DAN, LYH, BCB, AND ROA. SHOWER ACTIVITY LOOKS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD FOR DAN. MVFR CIGS LOOK TO
ALSO DEVELOP DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO THURSDAY MORNING AT
ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT ROA AND LYH TOMORROW.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
DRIER CONDITIONS MOVE IN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, WITH NO RAIN
CHANCES OUTSIDE OF DAN, THOUGH ONLY ISOLATED IN COVERAGE. BETTER
RAIN CHANCES RETURN FOR SATURDAY, AND SUNDAY LOOKS TO DRY OUT.
OVERNIGHT FOG WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT, PARTICULARLY AT
LWB.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR VAZ007-009>018-022-023-
032>035-043>047-058-059.
NC...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NCZ001>006-018>020.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...EB
AVIATION...AS/EB
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