022
FXUS61 KRNK 271402
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
902 AM EST THU NOV 27 2025
SYNOPSIS
COOLER AND DRY CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH SATURDAY.
RAIN CHANCES, AND EVEN SOME SNOW RETURN AGAIN BY SUNDAY AS
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 855 AM EST THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) MUCH COLDER FOR THANKSGIVING, WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S FOR THE
MOUNTAINS, AND IN THE 40S FOR THE PIEDMONT. LOWS IN THE TEENS
AND 20S TONIGHT.
2) GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY AND AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.
WIND ADVISORY CANCELLED AS LOW LEVEL JET HAS WEAKENED ACROSS THE
AREA AND ONLY A FEW OF THE HIGHER RIDGES WILL HAVE GUSTS OVER 40
MPH FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS. EXPECT THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TO
CLEAR OUT THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST ON TRACK WITH A CHILLY
THANKSGIVING DAY.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WAS SWINGING INTO EASTERN CANADA AND
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING. ANOTHER SOUTHERN PART OF THE
OVERALL TROUGH WAS MOVING THROUGH MO, AR, AND THE TN VALLEY, AND
WILL AFFECT OUR REGION THROUGH TODAY. AT THE SAME TIME, A
NORTHERN STREAM STRIPE OF VORTICITY WILL PUSH SOUTH AND THROUGH
THE BLUE RIDGE FRIDAY.
AT THE SURFACE, DENSE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN, ALLOWING
WINDS TO STAY PREDOMINANTLY WNW. WIND GUSTS THIS MORNING ARE
GENERALLY IN THE 25 TO 35 MPH RANGE AS REINFORCING CAA BLASTS
INTO THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING BEHIND ANOTHER BOUNDARY. A WIND
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE AND
ALONG THE I-81 CORRIDOR, WHERE TALLER VEHICLES MAY FEEL THE
IMPACTS, WITH GUSTS IN THE ADVISORY AREA TO 50 MPH. THIS
ADVISORY ENDS AT 11 AM TODAY. WINDS DECREASE FOR A FEW HOURS,
BUT BECOME GUSTIER LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY, AS ANOTHER
SURGE OF CAA AND INCREASING PGF AHEAD OF INCOMING HIGH PRESSURE
DEVELOPS. A THIS TIME, WIND GUSTS LOOK SUB- ADVISORY FOR MOST,
BUT THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE MAY NEED ONE. WILL LET DAY SHIFT
TAKE A LOOK ONCE THE CURRENT ADVISORY ENDS.
TONIGHT, LOWS DROP INTO THE TEENS AND 20S TONIGHT, DESPITE WINDS
STAYING UP AND MIXING OCCURRING. REGARDLESS, PROBABILITY OF
TEMPERATURES BELOW 25F TONIGHT ARE 100 PERCENT FROM BOONE, NC,
TO STAUNTON, VA, AND TO THE NORTHWEST. SO EXTRA BLANKETS ARE
NEEDED! A FEW FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE GREENBRIER VALLEY
AFTER MIDNIGHT.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN THE NEAR TERM FORECAST.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 200 AM EST THURSDAY...
KEY POINTS:
1. DRY AND COLD FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
2. SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY - LIGHT WINTRY MIX FOR THE
MOUNTAINS DURING THE MORNING WITH A COLD RAIN OVER THE
PIEDMONT.
A LOOK A THE NCEP ENSEMBLE MEAN 500MB GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS SHOWS
FOR FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT A CLOSED LOW MOVING ALONG THE ST.
LAWRENCE SEAWAY AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHEAST
INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ON THE WEST SIDE
OF THE PRIMARY TROUGH AXIS IS EXPECTED TO BE CROSSING THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE MID-ATLATNIC REGION. THE
PARENT, AND EVEN DEEPER LOW, TO THESE TWO OTHER LOWS IS EXPECTED
TO BE SITUATED NORTH OF HUDSON BAY. ZONAL FLOW IS EXPECTED FOR
MUCH OF CENTRAL CONUS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE HEADING
SOUTHEAST THROUGH MT/ID/WY. FOR SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT, DEEP
LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF HUDSON BAY SHIFTS SOUTH, AND WITH IT WILL
BE ITS TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
FLOW ACROSS OUR REGION TRENDS SOUTHWEST IN RESPONSE TO THE
DEEPENING LOW TO OUR WEST. A LONGWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER MUCH OF WESTERN CONUS WITH AN EQUALLY
AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA, SOUTH TO OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC. FOR SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT, THE DEEP CENTRAL
CANADIAN LOW CONTINUES TO EXPAND SOUTHWARD, IMPACTING MUCH OF
NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS. FLOW ACROSS OUR REGION REMAINS SOUTHWEST. A
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE-TROUGH PAIRING CONTINUES OFFSHORE AND
OVER WESTERN CONUS.
AT THE SURFACE FOR FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT, LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
OVER FAR EASTERN CANADA WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TRAILING
SOUTH INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED
OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WITH ITS INFLUENCE EXTENDING OVER
MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST US. LOW PRESSURE WILL BE DEVELOPING OVER
THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. FOR SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT, THE CENTER
OF HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES OUR REGION AND IS SITUATED IN THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC BY THE EVENING. LOW PRESSURE ADVANCES EASTWARD
INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT
EXTENDING EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. FOR SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT,
LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS AS IT ADVANCES NORTHEAST INTO QUEBEC, WITH
ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTH ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS
DURING THE EVENING HOURS ON ITS JOURNEY EASTWARD
A LOOK AT THE 26 NOV 12Z NAEFS ENSEMBLE SITUATIONAL AWARENESS
DATA SHOWS 850MB TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY VALUES ACROSS THE
REGION ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM -10C TO -8C, NORTH TO SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA. THESE VALUES CORRESPOND TO THE 1 TO 10
PERCENTILE OF THE 30-YEAR CFSR CLIMATOLOGY. ON SATURDAY, VALUES
INCH HIGHER, REACHING ROUGHLY -3C TO -1C, NE-SW. ON SUNDAY,
VALUES TREND HIGHER, REACHING 0C TO +4C, NW-SE.
THE ABOVE WEATHER PATTERNS OFFERS THE FOLLOWING FORECAST. HIGH
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BRING DRY WEATHER FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. COLD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT
WITH VALUES TRENDING HIGHER SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY, PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
REACH WESTERN SECTIONS BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY, THEN SPREAD EASTWARD
DURING THE DAY. PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE PIEDMONT IS EXPECTED
TO FALL AS RAIN. HOWEVER, ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN/LIGHT SNOW MIX WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. AS
SUNDAY MORNING ADVANCES, A COLD RAIN WILL BECOME THE DOMINATE
PRECIPIATION-TYPE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. FAR WESTERN GREENBRIER
COUNTY MAY MAINTAIN SOME TYPE OF WINTRY-WEATHER DURING THE
ENTIRE COURSE OF THE DAY. SUNDAY NIGHT, ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
EXITING SYSTEM, COLDER AIR MAY RETURN SNOW TO THE FORECAST FOR
PORTIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS WHILE RAIN IS STILL EXPECTED ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND SLIGHTLY MILDER EACH DAY,
BUT AS A WHOLE BE BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
CONFIDENCE IN THE ABOVE WEATHER SCENARIO IS MODERATE TO HIGH ON
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN PROGRESSION. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE
IN THE EXACT WINTER P-TYPE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS IS LOW.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 200 AM EST THURSDAY...
KEY POINTS:
1. MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT LIGHT RAIN POTENTIAL FOR MOST
LOCATIONS WITH WINTRY MIX POTENTIAL WESTERN AND NORTHERN
SECTIONS.
2. TEMPERATURES AROUND OR SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL.
3. DRY WEDNESDAY.
A LOOK AT THE NCEP ENSEMBLE MEAN 500MB GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS
SHOWS FOR MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT, A BROAD AND DEEP AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER CENTRAL CANADA AND NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS.
THERE IS AN INDICATION THIS FEATURE MAY START TO MERGE WITH THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER WESTERN CONUS, AND START USHERING IT
EASTWARD. SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES OVER OUR REGION. AN UPPER
RIDGE REACHES THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. FOR TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT,
A VERY BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH PATTERN DEVELOPS COVERING MUCH OF
SOUTHERN/SOUTHEAST CANADA AND CENTRAL/EASTERN US WITH ITS TROUGH
AXIS REACHING THE LOWER OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS DURING THE
EVENING HOURS. FOR WEDNESDAY, THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS OVER THE
EASTERN US REACHES THE REGION OF MAINE/NOVA SCOTIA AROUND THE
EVENING HOURS. A SECONDARY TROUGH, STILL ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP
PARENT LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA, MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKE
REGION.
AT THE SURFACE FOR MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT, HIGH PRESSURE ADVANCES
SOUTH INTO THE MID TO UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. LOW PRESSURE
WILL BE OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA, WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WHICH WILL CURVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC, THEN
SOUTHWEST TO FLORIDA. FOR TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT, THE CENTER OF
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST TO OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BY THE
EVENING HOURS. FOR WEDNESDAY, THE CENTER OF THE HIGH SHIFTS
NORTH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY.
A LOOK AT THE 26 NOV 12Z NAEFS ENSEMBLE SITUATIONAL AWARENESS
DATA SHOWS 850MB TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM -1C TO
+3C, NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION. FOR TUESDAY, A SIMILAR
RANGE IS EXPECTED, JUST NOW THE GRADIENT ORIENTED NW-SE. FOR
WEDNESDAY, VALUES RANGE FROM 0C TO +2C, N-S.
THE ABOVE WEATHER PATTERNS OFFERS THE FOLLOWING FORECAST. WHILE
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED WELL TO OUR EAST AND
SOUTH, SOME DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE IS OFFERING FOR A WEAK
DISTURBANCE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT NEAR THE GULF COAST. THIS
FEATURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO HEAD NORTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHEAST
US, BUCKLING THE COLD FRONT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. AS HIGH
PRESSURE WORKS ITS WAY EASTWARD ALONG THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY , WE
COULD START TO SEE THE DEVELOPMENT OF COLD AIR DAMMING ALONG
THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
CONFIDENCE IN OUR WEATHER TYPE AND DISTRIBUTION ACROSS THE
REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT IS LOW. HOWEVER, WITH
COLDER AIR ARRIVING FROM THE NORTH, AND A WEAK DISTURBANCE
HEADING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST US, OUR REGION MAY SEE A
MIXTURE OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION TYPES, WITH RAIN MORE LIKELY,
RATHER THAN WINTRY WEATHER, THE FARTHER SOUTHEAST ONE IS WITHIN
THE FORECAST AREA. GIVEN THE LOW CONFIDENCE IN BOTH, OUR
FORECAST WILL REFLECT ONLY A SNOW VS RAIN FORECAST.
BY WEDNESDAY, THE EXPANDING HIGH PRESSURE SHUNTS PRECIPITATION
TO THE EAST FOR A DRY DAY.
TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST ARE EXPECTED TO
BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
CONFIDENCE IN THE ABOVE WEATHER SCENARIO IS LOW REGARDING
TIMING, PLACEMENT, AND P-TYPE OF WEATHER MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 735 AM EST THURSDAY...
EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD ENDING 12Z/FRI.
MAY SEE SOME MVFR CIGS AT BLF/LWB DURING THE 06-12Z FRIDAY TIME
FRAME. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS TODAY, POSSIBLY WITH A SLIGHT
DECREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON, BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
GUSTS FROM 25 KTS TO LOCALLY 45 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE,
PARTICULARLY ALONG THE HIGHER RIDGES FROM THE BLUE RIDGE
WESTWARD.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK
BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS LINGER INTO EARLY FRIDAY BEFORE
FINALLY RELAXING FOR THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP DRY
WEATHER AND VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. BY
SUNDAY, THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH, WHICH COULD
BRING SUB-VFR CONDITIONS BACK TO THE AREA. SOME WINTRY WEATHER
POSSIBLE. SUB-VFR POSSIBLE INTO MONDAY WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...SH/WP
NEAR TERM...SH/WP
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...SH/WP
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