123
FXUS61 KRNK 231027
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
627 AM EDT THU JUL 23 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
FLOOD WATCH ENDS BY THE MORNING.
AVIATION FORECAST UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
1) LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
VA/NC BORDER COUNTIES THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS TODAY. THE
FLOOD WATCH WILL EXPIRE BY 8AM EDT.
2) TEMPERATURES WILL RUN AT OR BELOW NORMAL INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
VA/NC BORDER COUNTIES THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS TODAY. THE
FLOOD WATCH WILL EXPIRE BY 8AM EDT.
WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STILL DRAPED JUST SOUTH OF THE VA/NC
BORDER, ONGOING LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK
TO CONTINUE ACROSS THIS REGION THROUGH DAY BREAK. RECENT CAM
GUIDANCE KEEPS THESE SHOWERS PRIMARILY SOUTH OF THE BOTTOM ROW
OF VA BORDER COUNTIES AS IS EVIDENT BY MUCH DRIER AIR AT THE
SURFACE WORKING ITS WAY SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION. GIVEN THE
POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL RAIN ACROSS THESE AREAS THROUGH
DAYBREAK, THE FLOOD WATCH WAS KEPT IN PLACE; HOWEVER, IT WAS NOT
EXTENDED ANY FURTHER IN TIME GIVEN THE CONFIDENCE THAT THE FRONT
SHOULD PUSH FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO NOT CAUSE ANY MORE HEAVY SHOWERS
BEYOND THE 8AM EDT TODAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
NORTHERLY WINDS DUE TO SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE REGION
COMBINED WITH EASTERN CONUS TROUGHING WILL LEAD TO WELL BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS THROUGH SATURDAY.
HIGHS WILL GENERALLY RUN IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AREAWIDE, WITH
LOWS FALLING INTO THE LOW 60S TO MID 60S AREAWIDE.
OVERALL RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO REMAIN MINIMAL OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS; HOWEVER, AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA LATE FRIDAY LOOKS TO LEAD TO SOME MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
PRIMARILY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE BEING OBSERVED AT MOST TERMINALS
EXCEPT FOR LYH AND ROA WHERE VFR CONDITIONS ARE BEING OBSERVED
THIS MORNING. THESE CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
12-14 UTC WINDOW. VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO RETURN TO ALL
TERMINALS BY 14 UTC TIMEFRAME AS THE SUN BURNS OFF ANY FOG THAT
MAY CAUSE REDUCED VSBYS ACROSS THE AREA. EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS
AT AROUND 5-10 KNOTS TODAY WILL SLOWLY TRANSITION TO EASTERLY BY
THE EVENING TIMEFRAME ACROSS THE REGION, BUT LOOKS TO REMAIN
LIGHT AT AROUND 5 KNOTS OR LESS. OVERALL, WHILE VFR CONDITIONS
LOOK TO REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA, A MID CLOUD DECK IS EXPECTED TO
LINGER GIVEN THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE REGION.
RESTRICTIONS LOOK TO DEVELOP AT ALL TERMINALS TONIGHT AND
THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AS VALLEY FOG AND LOW CIGS
DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA DUE TO THE WET SOIL CONDITIONS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
NOT GOING TO FULLY DRY OUT BUT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD
BE MORE SCATTERED TO ISOLATED IN NATURE HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND. OVERALL OUTSIDE OF STORMS, EXPECT VFR. ALWAYS A
POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS/FOG IN THE MOUNTAINS AND WHERE IT RAINS
AS WELL. SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL BE MOST ABUNDANT ALONG
AND SOUTH OF A KUKF-KMTV-KW78 LINE.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ032-043-044-058-
059.
NC...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ003>006-019-020.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...EB
AVIATION...EB
HYDROLOGY...DS
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