864
FXUS61 KRNK 122313
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
713 PM EDT MON OCT 12 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
EVENING AVIATION UPDATE.
TEMPERATURES INCREASED SLIGHTLY TO MATCH OBSERVATIONS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) QUIET WEATHER AND WARMING TREND PRIOR TO COLD FRONT.
2) RAIN POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY AND COLDER WEATHER THIS
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: QUIET WEATHER AND WARMING TREND PRIOR TO COLD
FRONT.
FOLLOWING THE REMAINS OF ISAIAS, THE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO BE
BENIGN UNTIL THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. ISAIAS IS STILL BRINGING SOME
GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 KNOTS BUT AS IT (OR WHAT'S LEFT OF
IT) MOVES FURTHER AWAY, THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CALM DOWN BY
THIS EVENING.
A 500 MB RIDGE NEAR THE TEXAS COAST WILL MAKES ITS WAY TO THE
SOUTHEAST LATER THIS WEEK. THIS WILL INTRODUCE MORE
WESTERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND AN INCREASE IN HEIGHTS WHICH
WILL BRING MORE WARM AND MOIST AIR FROM THE GULF. SOME CLOUD
DEBRIS FROM HURRICANE SIMON WEST OF MEXICO IN THE PACIFIC MAY
ALSO BE TRANSPORTED TO THE EAST COAST. THE HIGHER PRESSURE WILL
STILL RESULT IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES, BUT IT WILL BE UNSEASONABLY
WARM AND HUMID. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REACH INTO
THE UPPER 80S IN THE PIEDMONT ON FRIDAY. DEW POINTS ARE LIKELY
TO GO BACK INTO THE 60S AND REACH 70. WHILE THE HEAT INDEX IS
CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTED TO HIT 90 (ASSUMING THE RIDGE CENTER
DOESN'T MOVE NORTH) IT WILL STILL BE RATHER WARM BY OCTOBER
STANDARDS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...RAIN POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY AND COLDER WEATHER THIS
WEEKEND.
A LARGE TROUGH CARRYING A SURFACE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
SWOOP THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC BETWEEN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING. THIS WILL ALSO COINCIDE WITH THE NEXT BEST CHANCE OF
RAINFALL BUT THE HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD WILL LIKELY BE IN THE
WESTERN MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES. A FEW HUNDRED CAPE AND SHEAR OF
20-30 KNOTS MAY SUPPORT SOME STORM CLUSTERS WITH DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS BUT IT IS TOO EARLY TO KNOW WHAT THE EXACT HAZARDS ARE.
WHAT IS WORTH NOTING IS THE NEW AIR MASS THAT WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT.
CONSIDERABLY DRIER AND COLDER AIR WILL RUSH IN AS WIND GUSTS JUMP
BETWEEN 25-35 MPH ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND UP TO 40
MPH AT RIDGETOPS. THERE COULD BE AS HIGH AS A 20 DEGREE
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON HIGHS MAY ONLY GET INTO THE LOWER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
SUNDAY MORNING, SO FAR, LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST WITH LOWS IN
THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. THIS COULD BE THE FIRST FREEZE OF
THE SEASON FOR A GOOD CHUNK OF THE AREA SO THIS WILL BE
MONITORED FOR POTENTIAL IMPACTS.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR HAS RETURNED TO ALL TERMINALS THIS EVENING AS THE LOW CLOUDS
HAVE FINALLY CLEARED OUT OF THE AREA. SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS
WILL MOVE THROUGH OVERNIGHT, BUT WILL NOT CAUSE ANY CHANGE IN
FLIGHT CATEGORY. WINDS HAVE REDUCED SINCE SUNSET, AND WILL BE
MOSTLY CALM TONIGHT, WITH LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS IN BLF AROUND 5
KNOTS. VFR IS EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH THE NIGHT, THOUGH BCB
AND PARTICULARLY LWB MAY SEE FOG BETWEEN 09-13Z. BCB MAY BRIEFLY
FALL INTO MVFR AROUND 4 MILES, WHILE LWB WILL LIKELY SEE THE
TYPICAL DENSE FOG DOWN TO 1/4 MILE FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE
SUNRISE.
TUESDAY WILL CONTINUE TO SEE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD WITH NO RAIN CHANCES AND CLEAR SKIES. WINDS WILL
INCREASE AGAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON, FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST,
INCREASING TO 5-10 KNOTS AND GUSTING TO NEAR 15 KNOTS AT TIMES.
CONFIDENCE IN THE ABOVE FORECAST IS HIGH.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
OTHER THAN SOME BRIEF LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING RIVER/VALLEY FOG, VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, A COLD FRONT WILL MAKE SLOW PROGRESS INTO AND
ACROSS OUR REGION. LOOK FOR A RETURN OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SOME
POCKETS OF SOME SUB-VFR CONDITIONS, PRIMARILY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR SATURDAY, BRINGING DRIER AND MUCH
COLDER WEATHER, WITH A POTENTIAL FIRST FREEZE OF THE YEAR IN
THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY NIGHT.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CG
AVIATION...DS/JCB
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