833
FXUS61 KRNK 171038
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
638 AM EDT WED JUN 17 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING. BREEZY
AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS WELL.
2) DRY WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
EVENING. BREEZY AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS WELL.
WHILE WE ENJOY ONE MORE DAY OF HAZARD FREE WEATHER, A VOLATILE
ENVIRONMENT FOR SEVERE STORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TO OUR
NORTHWEST ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY. PLEASE
PAY ATTENTION TO THE EVOLUTION OF THIS UPSTREAM WEATHER EVENT
BECAUSE IT MAY HAVE DOWNSTREAM IMPLICATION FOR OUR WEATHER ON
THURSDAY.
AN UPPER SHORTWAVE OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES/UPPER OHIO VALLEY
THURSDAY MORNING WILL PIVOT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY EVENING.
STRONG DEEP LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE WILL ALREADY BE IN PLACE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD,
WITH 500 MB FLOW FROM 60-80 KT STRETCHING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHEAST. MEANWHILE, AN INTENSE 850 MB LOW- LEVEL JET WILL
LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS, THE MID-
ATLANTIC, AND THE NORTHEAST. A SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO
WILL PIVOT NORTHEAST INTO QUEBEC, WHILE A TRAILING COLD FRONT
STRETCHES FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WEST/SOUTHWEST TOWARD THE
MID-MS VALLEY AND THE OK/TX PANHANDLES THURSDAY MORNING. THE
NORTHERN EXTENT OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST WHILE THE WESTERN EXTENT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY INTO
THE PLAINS SLOWLY SAGS SOUTHWARD.
STRONGER INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED IN A CORRIDOR FROM KY INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC WHERE RICHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE.
THIS CORRIDOR ALSO MAY SEE STRONGER HEATING. THE STRONG 850 MB
LOW-LEVEL JET WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY AS IT LIFTS
NORTHEAST, BUT STRONG DEEP-LAYER FLOW WILL PERSIST ATOP THIS
MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS. SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING, POSING MAINLY A RISK OF DAMAGING GUSTS.
MEANWHILE ALONG THE SOUTH TEXAS COAST, A CIRCULATION HAS
DEVELOPED WITH INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT IT WILL DEVELOP INTO
A TROPICAL STORM. STILL TOO EARLY TELL HOW MUCH IF ANY
INFLUENCE THIS WILL HAVE ON OUR WEATHER THURSDAY, BUT ONCE YOU
HAVE A BONAFIDE CIRCULATION, THERE WILL BE TENDENCY TO DEVIATE
FROM THE OVERALL FLOW PATTERN. ATTM THINK MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FEATURE WILL REMAIN MAINLY SOUTH OF OUR REGION
THURSDAY, BUT MAY IMPACT OUR NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. BEST POSSIBLE SCENARIO FOR RAIN THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY WOULD BE FOR THE NORTHERN STREAM FRONT TO SLOW
OR STALL OVER OUR AREA AS THE REMNANTS OF THE TROPICAL SYSTEM
PASS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS WOULD CREATE A
CONVERGENCE ZONE WITH POTENTIAL TO REAP BENEFITS OF SOME NEEDED
RAINFALL. THIS OF COURSE IS THE BEST SCENARIO FOR RAIN. IF
TROPICAL SYSTEM REMAINS TOO COMPACT IT MAY PASS US BY TO THE
SOUTH WITH LITTLE OR NO FANFARE.
KEY MESSAGE 2: DRY WEEKEND BUT MORE STORM CHANCES EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS THE FRONT SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. MODELS
AGREE ON A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE MID-MS
VALLEY HEADING INTO MONDAY SWINGING THROUGH THE MOUNTAINS EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THIS FEATURE WITH THE FRONT AND GOOD MOISTURE
ADVECTION SHOULD PROVIDE ANOTHER OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS, BUT LIKE PREVIOUS SYSTEMS, FRONTS THAT COME FROM THE
NORTHWEST FAVOR THE MOUNTAINS (ESP WESTERN SLOPES) FOR RAINFALL
AND TO A MUCH LESSER EXTENT EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS.
AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
FLIGHT CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR FOR TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
EXCEPTION WILL BE SOME IFR FOG AT LWB WHICH SHOULD LIFT BY
14Z.
SOUTHWEST WINDS COULD GUST TO 20KTS TODAY FOR ALL SITES, THEN
LESSEN BY 00Z, BEFORE PICKING UP AGAIN LATE IN THE MOUNTAINS.
INCREASING CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED LATER TODAY AS WELL IN THE
MOUNTAINS WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS REACHING LWB/BLF BY
12Z THU, BUT FOR NOW KEPT IT VFR.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
A COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE ON THURSDAY TO BRING SCATTERED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY
PRODUCE STRONG WINDS. SHOWERS SHOULD LINGER INTO FRIDAY MORNING
AS THE COLD FRONT DEPARTS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RESUME BY LATE
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS. SUNDAY SHOULD REMAIN VFR, BUT CLOUDS MAY INCREASE BY THE
AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...PM/WP
AVIATION...PW/WP
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