098
FXUS61 KRNK 191045
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
645 AM EDT SAT SEP 19 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
1) MEANDERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE OPPORTUNITY FOR
NEEDED RAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COOLDOWN BY WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: MEANDERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE OPPORTUNITY FOR
NEEDED RAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COOLDOWN BY WEDNESDAY.
SURFACE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH WITH HIGH PRESSURE WEDGING IN FROM
THE NORTH WILL PROVIDE A LITTLE MORE CLOUD COVER TODAY AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES. A FEW SHOWERS THIS MORNING WILL SKIRT THE
BLUE RIDGE, BUT MAIN CHANCES OF SHOWERS/FEW STORMS LOOK TO STAY
WEST AND SOUTH OF US CLOSER TO THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES TODAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 70S IN THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY
SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE INCLUDING LYNCHBURG/ROANOKE
WHERE CLOUD COVER MAY LINGER MOST OF THE DAY. WARMER
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 80S ARE EXPECTED IN SOUTHSIDE VA AND
THE NC PIEDMONT, AND ALSO ACROSS THE CLINCH AND HOLSTON RIVER
VALLEYS.
BY SUNDAY THE FLOW TURNS QUICKLY WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION
ADVANCING ACROSS THE TN/OH VALLEYS. THIS WILL PUSH THE FRONT
BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT, ONLY TO CLASH WITH ANOTHER
SOUTHWARD MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MONDAY AND TUESDAY,
TEMPERATURES TRENDING COOLER AGAIN FOR MID WEEK. A WHOLESALE
UPTICK IN RAIN CHANCES AREA EXPECTED FOR BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WITH WIDESPREAD QPF OF ONE INCH OR MORE POSSIBLE DURING THIS
TIME FRAME. 48 HOUR PROBABILISTIC ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE INDICATES 80
PERCENT CHANCE FOR 0.50, 50% CHANCE OF 1.00 AND 25% CHANCE OF
1.50 OR MORE. THIS IS GOOD NEWS. FOR MOST, THIS WILL BE MUCH
NEEDED RAIN.
BY WEDNESDAY UPPER TROUGH DIGS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WHILE THE
FRONT SHIFTS SOUTHEAST. COOLER AIR FROM THE NORTH WITH HIGH
PRESSURE WEDGE WILL HAVE OUR HIGHS WEDNESDAY RUNNING 10 TO 20
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL, WITH MID 50S TO MID 60S FOR MOST.
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
SUB-VFR CIGS/VSBYS AT TIMES THIS MORNING WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY
15-17Z, BUT EXPECT BKN V SCT CONDITIONS INTO THE AFTERNOON.
MODELS HAVE CIGS/VSBYS DROPPING AGAIN AFTER 06Z SUNDAY, AND WILL
LEAN THIS DIRECTION. INCREASING RAIN CHANCE LATE IN THE WEST MAY
KEEP CIGS A LITTLE HIGHER BUT FOR NOW WILL LINGER LOW CIGS INTO
12Z SUNDAY. RAIN CHANCES TODAY WILL BE LIMITED WITH BEST
CHANCES SOUTH OF AN VJI- MWK LINE.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ON SUB-VFR THIS MORNING, THEN
MODERATE ON IMPROVING TO VFR BY 17Z, WITH LOW TO MODERATE
CONFIDENCE ON LOWER CIGS LATE SAT NIGHT.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
SHOWER/STORM CHANCES INCREASE SUNDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WITH MONDAY AND TUESDAY LOOKING AT THE MOST COVERAGE.
DURING THIS TIME EXPECT PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AND
POTENTIAL HEAVY RAIN, WITH FOG AT NIGHT.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...PM/WP
AVIATION...WP
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page