836
FXUS61 KRNK 171428
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1028 AM EDT SAT MAY 17 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA TODAY WITH DRYING
WEST WINDS ARRIVING BY MIDDAY. HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES DRY
WEATHER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE ANOTHER FRONT SETS UP
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE CAROLINAS.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 1015 AM EDT SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
1) CLEARING FOR THE AFTERNOON, WARM AND BREEZY.
LAST NIGHT'S MCS HAS EXITED THE CWA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES SIGNIFICANT DRYING ALOFT IN ITS WAKE WHICH WILL BRING
CLEARING SKIES. EXPECTATION IS FOR SUNNY CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON. AIRMASS IS UNCHANGED WITH RESPECT TO THICKNESS SO IT
SHOULD WARM UP QUICKLY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 70S
MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 80S IN THE PIEDMONT. MORNING SOUNDING
INDICATED A HEALTHY JET ALOFT WITH WINDS NEAR 50KTS WITHIN 5KFT
OF THE GROUND. WITH AFTERNOON MIXING EXPECT BREEZY CONDITIONS
WITH SURFACE GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH.
SECONDARY TROUGH, OR WHAT COULD BE ARGUED AS THE ACTUAL SURFACE
FRONT IS CROSSING THE OHIO VALLEY WITH DEWPOINTS NEAR 60 AHEAD
OF THE FRONT AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S BEHIND THE BOUNDARY.
SHALLOW CONVECTION LIKELY TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT AS IT
MOVES THROUGH OH AND INTO WESTERN PA/WV THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. NOT EXPECTING ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM THIS FEATURE
ACROSS OUR AREA PER THE DRY INTRUSION ALOFT, BUT CONCEIVABLE
THAT SHOWERS MAY BRUSH GREENBRIER COUNTY WV AND THE VA HIGHLANDS
THIS EVENING AND EARLY TONIGHT (NORTH OF I-64).
TONIGHT, PRESSURE GRADIENT EXPECTED TO STAY TIGHT ENOUGH TO
KEEP WINDS BLOWING BUT NOT AS WINDY AS THIS AFTERNOON. WILL HAVE
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH LOWS IN THE MID 50S WEST TO
LOWER 60S EAST.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 130 AM EDT SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
1) FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS BY
TUESDAY.
UPPER FLOW WILL STAY RATHER PROGRESSIVE WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGE
WORKING IN FROM THE WEST MONDAY. A WARM FRONT TRACKS INTO THE TN
VALLEY LATER IN THE DAY MONDAY AND WILL SEE INCREASING CLOUDS. A
FEW SHOWER NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION OVER THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE INTO
THE NC MOUNTAINS.
WILL SEE ANOTHER UPPER LOW MOVING INTO THE MIDWEST MIDWEEK WITH
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SITUATED FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS. THIS WILL KEEP SHOWER CHANCES/FEW STORMS ELEVATED
FOR TUESDAY WITH HIGHEST CHANCES OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THIS
PERIOD.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 130 PM EDT FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
1) CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION MID WEEK
A SURFACE LOW IS PROJECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION MID-NEXT
WEEK BUT SPECIFIC IMPACTS WILL BE DETERMINED ON ITS TRAJECTORY.
THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE DRAGGING FRONTS WITH IT BUT IT'S
POSITION RELATIVE TO OUR AREA WILL DETERMINE IF OUR AREA GETS A
COLD FRONT, A WARM FRONT, OR BOTH. PRECIPITATION IS THE HIGHEST
WITH THIS SYSTEM NEXT WEEK, BUT IT IS TOO EARLY TO KNOW OF ANY
SEVERE WEATHER HAZARDS OR HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION WILL ACCOMPANY
THIS SYSTEM.
THE AIR MASS THAT FOLLOWS IT WILL BE CONSIDERABLY DRIER WITH DEW
POINTS LOWERING INTO THE 50S REGION-WIDE AND PWATS TANKING TO
ABOUT 0.25-0.50 INCHES. THE AIR TEMPERATURES ALSO MAY BE A
LITTLE COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S TOWARDS
THE PIEDMONT.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS PROJECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST
PORTION OF CONUS TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK BUT MODEL GUIDANCE IS
CURRENTLY UNSURE IF IT WILL BE A CUT OFF LOW. THE UPPER LOW LOOKS TO
MOVE SLOWLY REGARDLESS OF THIS AND PROVIDE MULTIPLE VORTICITY
MAXIMA TO THE MID-ATLANTIC. WITH THE DRY CONDITIONS, HOWEVER,
ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION IS UNLIKELY.
AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 1025 AM EDT SATURDAY...
CLEARING SKIES ONGOING IN THE WAKE OF THE MORNING MCS. STILL
SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WEST OF THE APPALACHIAN DIVIDE
BETWEEN MKJ-TRI, BUT OVERALL TREND IS FOR WIDESPREAD VFR
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING FOR THE AFTERNOON.
THE MORNING RNK SOUNDING INDICATED A HEALTHY JET ALOFT WITH
WINDS NEAR 50KTS WITHIN 5KFT OF THE GROUND. WITH AFTERNOON
MIXING EXPECT BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH SURFACE GUSTS 20-30KTS.
WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS, BUT
CONTINUE TO REMAIN GUSTY OVER THE MOUNTAIN RIDGES.
A SECONDARY FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. BKN LINE OF
LOW TOPPED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM OH INTO WESTERN
PA/WV THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAINLY IMPACTING AREAS NORTH OF
I-64. THIS ACTIVITY MAY GRAZE LWB, BUT WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE TAF
ATTM DUE TO THE LOW PROBABILITY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING
INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, KEEPING
THE WEATHER QUIET WITH LIKELY VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL TERMINALS.
UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
EQUIPMENT
AS OF 900 PM EDT FRIDAY...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE IN
BLACKSBURG, VA HAS FINISHED A REQUIRED, SCHEDULED UPDATE TO
THEIR ADVANCED WEATHER INTERACTIVE PROCESSING SYSTEM (AWIPS)
THAT BEGAN TUESDAY, MAY 13, 2025.
WHILE MOST OF OUR SERVICES ARE BACK TO NORMAL, THERE MAY STILL
BE ISSUES WITH DELAYED OR MISSING PRODUCTS UNTIL ALL SERVICES
ARE RESTORED IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS. NO IMPACTS TO OUR CORE
SERVICES OF FORECAST PRODUCTS AND WEATHER WATCHES, WARNINGS AND
ADVISORIES ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...PM/WP
NEAR TERM...PM/WP
SHORT TERM...CG/WP
LONG TERM...CG
AVIATION...PM
EQUIPMENT...WP
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