283
FXUS61 KRNK 211224
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
824 AM EDT SUN JUN 21 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SEVERE WEATHER AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING MONDAY
KEY MESSAGES
1) TRANQUIL WEATHER IS FORECASTED TO PERSIST TODAY.
2) SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECASTED FOR
MONDAY, SOME OF WHICH MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY WIDELY
SCATTERED AFTERNOON & EVENING STORMS LATER THIS WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: TRANQUIL WEATHER CONTINUES TODAY.
AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES, A SURFACE TROUGH COMBINING WITH
AFTERNOON HEATING WILL CREATE FAIR-WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS, WHICH
WILL DEVELOP PRIMARILY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. BECAUSE DEW POINTS
WILL HOVER IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S BENEATH A LAYER OF DRY
AIR ALOFT, RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN NEAR ZERO FOR MOST OF THE
AREA. IF ANY ISOLATED SPOT MANAGES TO SEE A LIGHT SHOWER OR
SPRINKLE, IT WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE GREENBRIER VALLEY INTO THE
ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW
TO MID-80S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 90S EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE.
THE SUMMER SOLSTICE WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING, JUNE 21 AT 424 AM
EDT.
KEY MESSAGE 2: SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORECASTED FOR MONDAY, SOME OF WHICH MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON & EVENING STORMS LATER THIS WEEK.
CONDITIONS WILL SHIFT DRAMATICALLY TOMORROW AS A DISTURBANCE
RUNNING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TRACKS ACROSS KENTUCKY, THEN OVER
SOUTHERN VIRGINIA. THE COMBINATION OF INTENSE AFTERNOON
HEATWITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE LOW TO MID-80S IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND THE LOW TO MID-90S IN THE FOOTHILLS AND
PIEDMONTAND DEEP MOISTURE WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S WILL BRING
A DISTINCT THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND FLOODING. STORMS WILL
PRIMARILY MOVE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS IN THE AFTERNOON BEFORE
PUSHING EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BY LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. DRIVEN BY A SOUTHWEST LOW- LEVEL JET, INCREASING
MOISTURE, BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITIES, AND STEEP LAPSE RATES,
THE PRIMARY THREAT TOMORROW WILL MANIFEST AS DAMAGING WINDS.
HOWEVER, WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR WILL LIKELY LIMIT WIDESPREAD,
ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES. THE MOUNTAINS WILL FACE A MARGINAL
RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER, WHILE A SLIGHT RISK WILL COVER THE
FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. FLASH FLOODING WILL SERVE AS A SECONDARY
THREAT; WITH ELEVATED THETA-E VALUES AND PRECIPITABLE WATER
AMOUNTS RUNNING NEAR 2 INCHES, EFFICIENT, SLOW-MOVING STORMS
COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN IN A
SHORT PERIOD, THOUGH THE AREA WILL RECEIVE BETWEEN A HALF AND
ONE INCH OF RAINFALL ON AVERAGE.
AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THE SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR AND CALM FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF
THE REGION AS VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST
PERIOD. EARLY THIS MORNING, HOWEVER, LOCALIZED AREAS AROUND
KLWB WILL SEE A DRAMATIC DROP IN VISIBILITY, WHERE DENSE FOG
WILL LIKELY TRIGGER LIFR CONDITIONS FOR A BRIEF WINDOW. AS THE
MORNING SUN BURNS AWAY THE FOG AND AFTERNOON HEATING TAKES HOLD,
FAIR-WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO DOT THE SKY, FLOATING
LAZILY OVER THE LANDSCAPE. THESE CLOUDS WILL HOLD STEADY
THROUGH THE PEAK OF THE DAY BEFORE GRADUALLY FADING AWAY INTO A
CLEAR SKY AROUND SUNSET.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
THE WEATHER WILL TAKE A MORE ACTIVE TURN AS MONDAY BEGINS,
BRINGING AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE REGION. AS THIS STORMY ACTIVITY PASSES DIRECTLY OVER
THE AIRPORTS, PILOTS AND FLIGHT CREWS CAN EXPECT PROBABLE SUB-
VFR CONDITIONS, WITH SUDDEN DROPS IN CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY
CAUSING TEMPORARY FLIGHT DISRUPTIONS.
LOOKING AHEAD TO THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK, SCATTERED DIURNAL
STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP DURING THE HEAT OF THE AFTERNOON,
POTENTIALLY IMPACTING SCHEDULED AFTERNOON AND EVENING FLIGHTS
WITH TURBULENT CONDITIONS AND BRIEF DELAYS. OUTSIDE OF THE
STORMY WEATHER, THE ONLY OTHER MAJOR THREAT TO FLIGHT CATEGORIES
WILL COME FROM EARLY-MORNING MOUNTAIN VALLEY AND RIVER FOG
BRINGING ADDITIONAL WINDOWS OF RESTRICTED VISIBILITY.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...RCS
AVIATION...AB/RCS
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