944
FXUS61 KRNK 220723
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
323 AM EDT MON JUN 22 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SOUTHEASTERN WV AND PART OF
THE WESTERN VA MOUNTAINS FROM NOON THROUGH THIS EVENING.
STILL EXPECTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, SOME OF WHICH MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS LATER THIS WEEK.
AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SOUTHEASTERN
WV AND PART OF THE WESTERN VA MOUNTAINS FROM NOON THROUGH THIS
EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP LATER TODAY THROUGH
THIS EVENING. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS LATER THIS WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SOUTHEASTERN
WV AND PART OF THE WESTERN VA MOUNTAINS FROM NOON THROUGH THIS
EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP LATER TODAY THROUGH
THIS EVENING. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS LATER THIS WEEK.
AN EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
REGION MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME CONVECTION COULD
BEGIN BUBBLING UP IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS AROUND NOON, BUT WE
WILL SEE MORE ACTIVITY BEGIN ALONG A DIFFERENTIAL HEATING
BOUNDARY/LEE TROUGH ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE AROUND 2 PM.
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH TO SUPPORT MULTICELL
CLUSTERS, AND THETA-E LAPSE RATES INDICATE WET MICROBURSTS WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS DUE TO PRECIPITATION
LOADING AND DRIER AIR BEING PULLED INTO THE STORMS IN THE MID
LEVELS. THE SEVERE THREAT MAINLY INCLUDES DAMAGING WINDS, AND
LOOKS HIGHEST ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE AND OVER THE PIEDMONT OF VA
AND NC. PWATS WILL HOVER AROUND 1.75 INCHES, AND THIS ALONG WITH
THE LIKELIHOOD OF TRAINING CELLS WILL MEAN LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK TO
BE BETWEEN A THIRD OF AN INCH TO AN INCH, WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER
AMOUNTS EXPECTED UNDER THE HEAVIER/TRAINING STORMS. DUE TO FLASH
FLOOD GUIDANCE BEING LOWER IN THE MOUNTAINS BECAUSE OF RECENT
RAINFALL AND IN COORDINATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORS, HAVE ISSUED A
FLOOD WATCH FOR OUR WV COUNTIES ALONG WITH TAZEWELL CO., VA
THROUGH TONIGHT.
A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA OVERNIGHT, AND SHOULD KEEP SHOWERS GOING OVER THE
MOUNTAINS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. IT LOOKS A LITTLE GUSTY LATE
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY BEHIND THE SYSTEM WITH NORTHWEST WINDS
DEVELOPING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE MIDDAY TUESDAY THROUGH
MIDDAY THURSDAY. THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WE WILL SEE
INCREASINGLY WIDESPREAD AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION AS A
BACKDOOR FRONT NEARS FROM THE NORTH AND POSSIBLY PUSHES SOUTH
INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNDAY.
AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES, EXPECT 70S TO MID 80S FOR THE MOUNTAINS
THIS WEEK, WITH 80S TO LOWER 90S FOR THE PIEDMONT.
AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LEADING TO PERIODS OF MVFR
RESTRICTIONS STARTING THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR ALL AREA
TERMINALS. AFTER STORMS BEGIN TO WANE AROUND 00Z, EXPECT
DEVELOPING MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN RAIN AND FOG
FOR THE MOUNTAIN TERMINALS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH A
CHANCE FOR LIFR AT BLF, LWB, AND BCB. LYH AND DAN SHOULD
GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR ONCE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND
USHERS IN DRIER DOWNSLOPING AIR FOR THE PIEDMONT.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN SOUTHWEST AT AROUND 8-12 KNOTS
GUSTING TO 20+ KNOTS AT TIMES BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS, AND BECOME
LIGHT OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
STRATUS WILL LIKELY HANG ON IN THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE TERMINALS IMPROVE TO VFR THERE TOO.
THIS CALM WEATHER LASTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
BEGINNING THURSDAY, SCATTERED DIURNAL STORMS WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP DURING THE HEAT OF THE AFTERNOON, POTENTIALLY IMPACTING
SCHEDULED AFTERNOON AND EVENING FLIGHTS WITH TURBULENT
CONDITIONS AND BRIEF DELAYS. OUTSIDE OF THE STORMY WEATHER, THE
ONLY OTHER MAJOR THREAT TO FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL COME FROM
EARLY-MORNING MOUNTAIN VALLEY AND RIVER FOG BRINGING ADDITIONAL
WINDOWS OF RESTRICTED VISIBILITY.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
VAZ007.
NC...NONE.
WV...FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
WVZ042>044-507-508.
DISCUSSION...SH
AVIATION...SH
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