001
FXUS61 KRNK 130018
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
818 PM EDT SUN JUL 12 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR AREAS ALONG/SOUTH OF US-460
THROUGH 8PM MONDAY.
EVENING AVIATION UPDATE COMPLETED.
KEY MESSAGES
KEY MESSAGE 1: SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL FORCING WILL
BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TROUGH MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
TRENDING COOLER.
KEY MESSAGE 2: MUCH OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY WITH WARM/HOT CONDITIONS
FOR MID-WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL FORCING WILL
BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TROUGH MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
TRENDING COOLER EACH DAY.
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY, THE QUASI=STATIONARY FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST TO OUR SOUTH. HOWEVER, WITH A SLOW
APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS OUR
REGION, SHOWERS WILL REMAIN IN OUR FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST
MONDAY. INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED, SO WHILE NOT IMPOSSIBLE,
THUNDERSTORMS WILL FEW AND FAR BETWEEN. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE
THIS EVENING OVER NORTH CAROLINA, CLOSEST TO THE DEPARTING
FRONT.
THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT, SOME OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF GENERATING LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF
HEAVY RAINFALL. STORM MOTION WILL BE NEARLY STATIONARY, LEADING
TO THIS POTENTIAL. DUE TO THIS, A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR AREAS ALONG/SOUTH OF US-460 THROUGH 8PM MONDAY.
ON MONDAY, LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL GENERALLY BE EASTERLY OFF THE
ATLANTIC. THIS MOISTURE WILL BE LIFTED UPSLOPE ALONG THE EASTERN
FACES OF THE APPALACHIANS, HELPING TO PROVIDE SOME ELEMENT OF
OROGRAPHICAL LIFT FOR RAINFALL DEVELOPMENT AS WELL WORKING IN
TANDEM WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
BE GREATEST IN THE SOUTH, AND LEAST IN THE NORTH.
THANKS TO PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION, TEMPERATURES ON
MONDAY WILL LIKELY BE SIMILAR OR SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN THOSE
EXPERIENCED TODAY.
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, THE AXIS OF THE UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
SHIFTS SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. WITH THE TROUGH, SO WILL GO THE
CHANCES OF ADDITIONAL SHOWERS. LOOK FOR SHOWERS TO PROGRESSIVELY END
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THIS TIME PERIOD, PERHAPS STARTING AS
EARLY AS LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. WITH SUNSHINE RETURNING, LOOK FOR
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY MILDER THAN THOSE OF MONDAY, PERHAPS BY AN
AVERAGE OF FIVE TO TEN DEGREES.
KEY MESSAGE 2: MUCH OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY WITH WARM/HOT CONDITIONS
FOR MID-WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP MUCH OF THE REGION DRY DURING THE MIDDLE
PART OF THE WEEK. A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
THESE REGIONS WILL BE FARTHEST AWAY FROM THE CENTER OF THE HIGH, AND
BY THURSDAY THE NEXT APPROACHING WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BE OVER PARTS
OF THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
TREND MILDER EACH DAY, SO THAT BY THURSDAY, VALUES ABOUT FIVE TO TEN
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE AREA. WHEN
CONSIDERING HUMIDITY AS WELL, AND WE WILL BE LOOKING AT MUCH OF THE
PIEDMONT OF VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA EXPERIENCING LATE AFTERNOON
HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND OR A LITTLE OVER 100 DEGREES.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
DESPITE SHOWERS AND CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA THIS
EVENING, ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT BCB/BLF ARE IN VFR. THIS IS DUE
TO SHOWERS HAVING LIGHTENED OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS, ALONG
WITH LOW INSTABILITY. SHOWERS WILL STILL BE ONGOING THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT, AT TIMES AFFECTING EACH TERMINAL, BRINGING TEMPORARY
REDUCTIONS IN VSBY AND CIGS. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP
SIGNIFICANTLY OVERNIGHT, TO IFR/LIFR, AT AROUND 500-800 FEET AFTER
03Z. PATCHY FOG IS ALSO EXPECTED, BRINGING VSBY DOWN TO 2-4
MILES, WITH SOME DENSE FOG POSSIBLE AT LWB BETWEEN 07-13Z.
A BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA EARLY
MORNING ON MONDAY, CONTINUING THROUGH AROUND 15Z, KEEPING CIGS
LOW AND SUB- VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS IN PLACE THROUGH MIDDAY AT
EACH TERMINAL. BY MID-AFTERNOON, THE FRONT SAGS FURTHER OFF TO
OUT SOUTH, WHICH WILL ALLOW SHOWERS TO BECOME VERY ISOLATED.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT WIDELY EXPECTED, THOUGH A STRAY RUMBLE OF
THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT. DAN HAS THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDER
FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON. CIGS FINALLY RETURN TO VFR LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS IN
FROM THE NORTH, ENDING THE RAIN CHANCES.
CONFIDENCE IN THE ABOVE FORECAST IS MODERATE.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
EXPECT SHOWERS TO END MONDAY NIGHT WITH IMPROVING FLIGHT
CATEGORIES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING
RIVER/VALLEY FOG WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE THOUGH.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST LOCATIONS TUESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. SOME LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING VALLEY FOG MAY BE POSSIBLE
EACH NIGHT.
PREVAILING WINDS FOR MOST LOCATIONS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL
GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 7 KTS.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR VAZ007-009>017-022-
032>034-043>046-058-059.
NC...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR NCZ001>006.
WV...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR WVZ042.
DISCUSSION...DS/JCB
AVIATION...DS/JCB
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