891
FXUS61 KRNK 180645
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
245 AM EDT SAT JUL 18 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TODAY, LESS SO
TOMORROW. HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY AT TIMES.
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
1) STRONG TO SEVERE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WITH
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR DAILY THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MID WEEK.
2) ONE MORE DAY OF VERY WARM WEATHER, THEN TEMPERATURES BEGIN
TO MODERATE. SMOKE ALSO LESSENS BEGINNING TODAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...STRONG TO SEVERE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY
WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR DAILY THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MID
WEEK.
RIDGING ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE CONTINUED TO WEAKEN AS
TROUGHING GRADUALLY REPLACED IT ALOFT. CURRENTLY A SHORT WAVE
TRAVELING CLOCKWISE AROUND THE BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WAS
SUSTAINING RELATIVELY STRONG STORMS NEAR THE VA/TN BORDER. A FEW
OF THE SMALLER CELLS HAD WORKED THEIR WAY INTO THE WESTERN
MOUNTAINS. CAMS SHOW THIS ACTIVITY MOVING INTO SE WV EVENTUALLY
AND WEAKENING TOWARDS MORNING.
INCREASING CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT ALONG WITH LEE TROUGHING WILL
INTERACT WITH STRONG HEATING AND DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S/
LOWER 70S TO PRODUCE MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY
FROM NOON ON INTO THE EVENING. GIVEN THE TEMPERATURES AND
MOISTURE, INSTABILITY WILL BE MODERATE, HOWEVER SHEAR WILL BE
RELATIVELY WEAK AND STORM MODE IS EXPECTED TO BE CLUSTERS AND A
FEW BROKEN LINE SEGMENTS MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST AROUND 20 KTS.
CONVECTION CONTINUES OFF AND ON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AT
WHICH POINT A COLD FRONT FINALLY MOVES INTO THE REGION. THIS
FEATURE ALONG WITH LEE TROUGHING WILL FOSTER ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION SUNDAY. AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE NORTH,
CONVECTION WILL SINK SOUTH. FOR BOTH DAYS, BUT ESPECIALLY
SATURDAY GIVEN THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT, NUMEROUS STORMS MAY
BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE, WITH DOWNBURSTS THE MAIN CONCERN.
HEAVY RAIN LEADING TO FLASH FLOODING WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WE WILL SEE ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS, WITH ANOTHER FRONT LIKELY PUSHING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...ONE MORE DAY OF VERY WARM WEATHER, THEN
TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO MODERATE. SMOKE ALSO LESSENS BEGINNING
TODAY.
STILL MAY SEE SMOKE AROUND FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES TODAY, BUT
THIS WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER
FLOW SHIFTS. TEMPERATURES TOO WILL BE COOLER AFTER ONE MORE DAY
OF 90+ DEGREE HEAT ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. MOST DAYS
THIS WEEK WILL BE IN THE 70S AND 80S FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND THE
80S OR LOW 90S FOR THE PIEDMONT (AFTER TODAY). HEAT INDEX VALUES
STAY SHY OF ADVISORY CRITERIA ONCE AGAIN TODAY.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP AFTER 11 AM TODAY AND
CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT BEFORE WEAKENING...WITH A FEW ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS FOR BLF AND LWB OVERNIGHT. HEAVY DOWNPOURS MAY BRING
MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT, WHILE SUB-MVFR
STRATUS AND FOG ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. SMOKE MAY CONTINUE TO IMPACT ROANOKE, DANVILLE,
AND LYNCHBURG TODAY BEFORE SHIFTING EAST.
OUTLOOK SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
DAILY CONVECTION WILL BRING MVFR OR BRIEFLY LOWER CONDITIONS
EACH DAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG/LOW STRATUS WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE EACH MORNING. A WESTERLY WIND WITH SPEEDS
BETWEEN 6 AND 12 KTS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY, WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
AS HIGH AS 25 KTS FOR THE MOUNTAINS BEHIND A FRONTAL PASSAGE.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SH
AVIATION...SH
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