696
FXUS61 KRNK 120721
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
321 AM EDT WED AUG 12 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
FLOOD WATCH IS CONTINUED THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY IN UPSTREAM DISTURBANCES TODAY.
UPDATED THE AVIATION DISCUSSION.
KEY MESSAGES
1) STORM CHANCES STAY WITH US INTO THE WEEKEND WITH BEST CHANCES
IN THE MOUNTAINS. SOME SEVERE/FLOODING POSSIBLE MAINLY THROUGH
LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1:
STORM CHANCES STAY WITH US INTO THE WEEKEND WITH BEST CHANCES IN
THE MOUNTAINS. SOME SEVERE/FLOODING POSSIBLE MAINLY THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
THE OVERALL LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL AND MID LEVEL PATTERN HAVE
REMAINED LARGELY UNCHANGED SINCE MONDAY ACROSS THE AREA. AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN THE WESTERN CONUS AND SLIGHT UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES IN THE
EASTERN CONUS WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW MCS DISTURBANCES TO
TRAVERSE EAST ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE FOR
TODAY, THURSDAY, AND POSSIBLY FRIDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
LOOKS TO NUDGE FAR ENOUGH EAST BY SATURDAY THAT THE TRAIN OF
REPEATED MCS SHOULD COME TO AN END; HOWEVER, WITH MOISTURE
REMAINING HIGH ACROSS THE REGION, DAILY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE.
FOR TODAY, CAM MODEL GUIDANCE HAS THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
REMAINING MINIMAL TODAY; HOWEVER, GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO BRING IN A POSSIBLE MCS THROUGH THE LATE EVENING
HOURS TODAY. THE LATEST NBM GUIDANCE HAD LOW POPS FOR TODAY, BUT
HAVE OPTED TO INCREASE THEM SLIGHTLY TO SHOW THIS CHANCE OF
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS TODAY. WITH THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE HINGING ON
CURRENT UPSTREAM CONVECTION, THE OVERALL FORECAST WILL CONTINUE
TO REMAIN UNCERTAIN IN THIS NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN.
WITH ELEVATED DEEP LAYER SHEAR REMAINING OVER THE REGION, THE
POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS PARTS OF THE
REGION WILL CONTINUE TODAY. AT LEAST ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS FAVORED TERRAIN AREAS, WITH MODEST
WEST- NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SUPPORTING POTENTIAL FOR OUTFLOW-
DRIVEN CELLS/CLUSTERS WITH A THREAT OF WIND DAMAGE. ANY FEATURES
FAVORABLY TIMED WITH THE DIURNAL CYCLE (SUCH AS A PERSISTENT
STORM CLUSTER OR MCV) COULD RESULT IN A GREATER COVERAGE OF
WIND-DAMAGE POTENTIAL, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
OUTSIDE OF SOME RIVER VALLEY FOG AT LWB, AND POSSIBLY BCB BY
SUNRISE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THIS RIVER VALLEY FOG AND SUBSEQUENT
MVFR TO IFR VSBYS AND CIGS LOOK TO DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE THIS MORNING. THE FORECAST IS AGAIN QUITE UNCERTAIN
TODAY WITH CAM GUIDANCE AND GLOBAL FORECAST GUIDANCE SHOWING TWO
COMPLETELY DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS FOR TODAY. GLOBAL GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO BRING REPEATED ROUNDS OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY TO THE REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS; HOWEVER, CAM
GUIDANCE DOES NOT HAVE ANY CONVECTIVE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON OR
EVENING. WITH THIS UNCERTAINTY, NO SHRA/TSRA HAS BEEN ADDED
THUS FAR AS INITIAL THINKING IS TO LEAN TOWARDS CAM GUIDANCE AND
ONLY MAINTAIN ISOLATED COVERAGE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN OUT OF THE WEST/NORTHWEST TODAY
WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10 KNOT OR LESS EXPECTED. GUSTS UP TO 15
TO 20 KNOTS CAN'T BE RULED OUT ACROSS MOUNTAIN TERMINALS EARLY
THIS MORNING BEFORE DISSIPATE TO AROUND 10-15 KNOTS BY THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.
OVERALL, MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY UNLESS THE
FORECAST DRASTICALLY CHANGES.
OUTLOOK WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
PATTERN TREND CONTINUES WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR STORMS. MAINLY
VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY STORMS AND LATE NIGHT FOG/STRATUS.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR VAZ007-009>020-
022>024.
NC...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR NCZ001-002-018.
WV...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR WVZ042>044-507-508.
DISCUSSION...EB/WP
AVIATION...EB/WP
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