408
FXUS61 KRNK 031714
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
114 PM EDT WED JUN 3 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION UPDATE.
DRY WEATHER WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK, WITH
WARMING TEMPERATURES EACH DAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
SHOWER/STORM CHANCES NEXT SUNDAY INTO EARLY WORKWEEK BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE ON COVERAGE.
KEY MESSAGES
KEY MESSAGE 1: DRY WEATHER WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 2: SHOWER/STORM CHANCES NEXT SUNDAY INTO EARLY
WORKWEEK BUT LOW CONFIDENCE ON COVERAGE.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: DRY WEATHER WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK.
AN ANTICYCLONIC WAVE BREAKING EVENT OCCURRING OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS WILL QUICKLY EJECT THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER
THE REGION SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. THIS WILL QUICKLY RISE
THE 500MB HEIGHTS OVER THE REGION AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT
WAS OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS POSITIONS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS BY
THURSDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO ALSO REMAIN OVERHEAD OF
THE REGION PROVIDING CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS AREAWIDE. AS
THIS AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SETTLES OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS, TEMPERATURES WILL RISE PROGRESSIVELY EACH DAY ACROSS THE
REGION, WITH 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS AND 80S IN THE PIEDMONT TODAY
GIVING RISE TO MID TO UPPER 80S IN THE MOUNTAINS AND LOW TO MID
90S IN THE PIEDMONT BY FRIDAY. THESE HOT TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
HANG AROUND THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND UNTIL A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 2: SHOWER/STORM CHANCES NEXT SUNDAY INTO EARLY
WORKWEEK BUT LOW CONFIDENCE ON COVERAGE.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING LOOKS TO
BRING THE AREAS NEXT RAIN CHANCES. MODELS TRENDS HAVE LESS
SHOWER CHANCES AFTER MONDAY, AND EVEN THOSE CHANCES SUNDAY AND
MONDAY LOOK IFFY, DEPENDING ON LOCATION OF UPPER LOW AND UPPER
HIGH. A FURTHER EAST UPPER LOW WILL LEAD TO LESS PRECIP CHANCES
AND MORE SUBSIDENCE.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXCEPTION WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR IFR TO
LIFR FOG AT LWB LATE TONIGHT, 08-13Z TIME FRAME.
BASED ON LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW, THINK FOG WILL STAY OUT OF BCB SO
TOOK THAT OUT.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST
SATURDAY, WITH THE ONLY POTENTIAL DROP IN FLIGHT CONDITIONS
BEING PATCHY NIGHTTIME FOG, MAINLY FOR THE MOUNTAIN AND RIVER
VALLEY TERMINALS, THOUGH THE DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE COULD KEEP
FOG DEVELOPMENT LIMITED. SUB-VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO POSSIBLY
RETURN TO THE AREA WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, BUT
LOW CONFIDENCE ON THAT.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...EB/WP
AVIATION...EB/WP
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