599
FXUS61 KRNK 231041
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
641 AM EDT FRI OCT 23 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION UPDATED.
MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE PROBLEMS WITH FORECASTING DEWPOINTS,
ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON, WHICH IMPACTS THE RH FORECAST.
CONTINUE TO LOWER THEM. LOW TEMPERATURES WERE ALSO LOWERED AS
WEDGING DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION STARTING TONIGHT, WILL START
TO ADVECT COOLER AIR FROM THE NORTHEAST DOWN INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC STATES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DRY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THROUGH MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1:DRY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THROUGH MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.
THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WITH
HIGH PRESSURE AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
NEXT WEEK, TEMPERATURES LOOK TO MODERATE TO MORE SEASONABLE
VALUES IN THE 60S AND 70S FOR HIGHS EACH DAY, AND 30S/40S FOR
LOWS AT NIGHT. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WERE LOWERED SOME AS
SURFACE WEDGING LOOKS TO DEVELOP TONIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. THIS
WILL HELP ADVECT COOLER AIR FROM THE NORTHEAST INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC STATES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.
AT THIS TIME, NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THE
END OF NEXT WEEK, AND IS NOT LOOKING LIKELY FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE MONTH.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THERE IS
SOME CAM GUIDANCE SHOWING LOW CLOUDS DEVELOP OVER MOUNTAIN
TERMINALS TO INCLUDE BCB, LWB, AND BLF EARLY SATURDAY MORNING
STARTING AROUND 10 UTC, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME TO
INCLUDE RESTRICTIONS ON THOSE TERMINALS AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE
POSSIBILITY OF LOWER COVERAGE. WINDS LOOK TO CONTINUE TO REMAIN
OUT OF THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT AROUND 5-10
KNOTS, WITH GUSTS UP TO 15 KNOTS THROUGH THE 15-00 UTC TIMEFRAME
TODAY.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...
VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK. ANY FOG
SHOULD BE LIMITED TO OVER BODIES OF WATER, AND NOT FORESEEING
ANY ISSUES AT THE TAF SITES.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...EB
AVIATION...EB
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