933
FXUS61 KRNK 312256
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
656 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION UPDATED.
INCREASED QPF FOR RAINFALL LATTER THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK. POTENTIAL FOR 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN ESPECIALLY ALONG AND
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE FROM LATE SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DRY THROUGH TONIGHT. DAILY RAINFALL CHANCES BEGIN THIS
WEEKEND AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: DRY THROUGH TONIGHT. DAILY RAINFALL CHANCES BEGIN
THIS WEEKEND AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT AND
PROVIDE A NICE EVENING FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.
BY SATURDAY, ADVECTION OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS ALONG WITH
THE CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THIS LOW IS PROGGED TO BE SLOW MOVING AND IT IS FORECAST TO
LINGER FOR SEVERAL DAYS, RESULTING IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS (BOTH NOCTURNAL AND DIURNAL) FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
OVERALL, PATTERN IS NOT SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED SEVERE, BUT
REPETITIVE SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BEGIN TO
INCREASE HYDRO CONCERNS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES (APPROACHING
2 INCHES) GIVES SOME CONFIDENCE IN THIS AS WELL. TEMPERATURES
NEXT WEEK GENERALLY AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR THROUGH SATURDAY. EXCEPTION WILL BE FOG
AT LWB SATURDAY MORNING. EXPECT SOUTHERLY WINDS TOMORROW
GRADUALLY VEERING MORE AS THE AFTERNOON GOES ON. SPEEDS OF 6 TO
9 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED TO BEGIN SATURDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
AND INTO THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN AN ABUNDANCE OF CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BMG/PM/SH
AVIATION...PM/SH
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