396
FXUS61 KRNK 040732
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
232 AM EST WED MAR 4 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SLIGHT INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) WEDGE ERODES TODAY, TEMPERATURES WARM BUT CHANCE OF RAIN FOR
AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-64.
2) MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TO POTENTIAL RECORD BREAKING TEMPERATURES
BY FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
3) SHOWER CHANCES ARE LOW THROUGH FRIDAY THEN BETTER CHANCE OVER
THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: WEDGE ERODES TODAY, TEMPERATURES WARM BUT CHANCE
OF RAIN FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-64.
COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE STILL BEING OBSERVED ACROSS PIEDMONT AND
MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS THIS MORNING. SOME LOCATIONS, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS SW VIRGINIA ARE REPORTING SOUTHWEST FLOW, AND ARE
CURRENTLY 10-15 DEGREES WARMER THAN MUCH OF THE PIEDMONT AND
VALLEY LOCATIONS. AS THE SUN RISES THIS MORNING, AND THE
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXES OUT, SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE
AREAWIDE, AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD INCREASE AND ERODE THE WEDGE
THATS BEEN PERSISTENT ACROSS THE REGION. A WARM FRONT HAS
DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA AND NORTH/CENTRAL
VIRGINIA. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SHOWER
ACTIVITY TODAY, WITH THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THESE SHOWERS
EXPECTED TO BE ALONG THE I-64 CORRIDOR. TEMPERATURES SOUTH OF
THIS FRONT TODAY SHOULD REACH INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S, WITH
LOW 70S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE VA/NC BORDER. AREAS ALONG THE I-64
CORRIDOR WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO REACH 60 TODAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2: RECORD BREAKING TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE LOOKS TO START BUILDING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST TODAY. THIS WILL STEADILY INCREASE TEMPERATURES EACH
DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS THE RIDGE STEADILY BUILDS, THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS DRAPED ACROSS THE I-64 CORRIDOR TODAY
WILL LIFT NORTH INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION BY THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD, 500MB HEIGHT
ANOMALIES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH NEAR RECORD VALUES ACROSS
EASTERN CONUS. THIS WILL LEAD TO POSSIBLE NEAR RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, WITH LOW
80S IN THE PIEDMONT AND 70S WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. SOME RECORDS
COULD BE BROKEN ACROSS THE REGION. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
LOOK TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK; HOWEVER, RAIN CHANCES
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY LOWER EACH DAY.
KEY MESSAGE 3: SHOWER/STORM CHANCES INCREASE OVER THE PERIOD.
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER LEVEL CUT-OFF
LOW WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA AND MEXICO BY
SATURDAY. THIS WILL CREATE AN AREA OF DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND
INCREASE FORCING FOR ASCENT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST LEADING TO
SEVERAL DAYS OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
STARTING SATURDAY. PIECES OF VORTICITY FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED
CUT-OFF LOW LOOK TO GET STUCK IN THE NORTHERN JET STREAM AND
PUSH EAST ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION LEADING TO
INCREASED RAIN CHANCES ON SATURDAY. SHOWER CHANCES FALL BACK TO MORE
SCATTERED VARIETY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES
SOUTH, AND THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
FLIGHT CONDITIONS HAVE FALLEN TO EITHER IFR/LIFR AS CIGS HAVE
SIGNIFICANTLY LOWERED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS AT ALL TERMINALS
EXCEPT BLF, WHICH REMAINS IN VFR. THE LOW CIGS ARE DUE TO A WARM
FRONT OFF TO OUR NORTH. WET GROUND AND LIGHT WINDS HAVE ALLOWED
PATCHY DENSE FOG TO MOVE IN ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA, THOUGH AGAIN
SPARING BLF. FOG AND LOW CIGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT,
KEEPING SUB-VFR IN PLACE THROUGH MID-MORNING. BLF WILL ALSO SEE CIGS
FALL INTO MVFR AROUND 10Z.
ASIDE FROM BLF/LWB, VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN AROUND 14-15Z, ONCE
THE FOG CLEARS OUT. BLF KEEPS MVFR CIGS UNTIL MID-AFTERNOON, WHILE
LWB KEEPS FOG IN PLACE FOR MOST OF THE DAY DUE TO BEING CLOSER TO
THE FRONT. SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS EACH TERMINAL
THROUGHOUT THE DAY, WHICH COULD BRING SUB-VFR CONDITIONS. THE ONE
EXCEPTION IS DAN, WHICH WILL REMAIN DRY. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AREA-
WIDE, EXCEPT FOR BLF, WHICH WILL RISE TO 10 KNOTS, GUSTING UP TO 20
KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON. BY 00Z THURSDAY, RAIN CHANCES WIND DOWN, AND
CIGS RISE WITH WIDESPREAD VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS RETURNING THROUGH
THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
CONFIDENCE IN THE ABOVE FORECAST IS MODERATE.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOOK TO BE MAINLY VFR, AS HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS
MOST OF THE AREA CLEAR, THOUGH A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY BE
POSSIBLE, WHICH COULD BRING BRIEF SUB-VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS IF THEY
AFFECT A TERMINAL. OTHERWISE QUIET WEATHER LASTS UNTIL THE WEEKEND,
WHEN BETTER RAIN CHANCES AND EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED,
WHICH WILL CAUSE SUB-VFR. NIGHTLY CHANCES FOR FOG WILL ALSO BE
EXPECTED, AS WARM, HUMID AIR SURGES INTO THE REGION.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...EB
AVIATION...JCB
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