012
FXUS61 KRNK 071832
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
232 PM EDT WED OCT 7 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
FORECAST DISCUSSION UPDATED
AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION UPDATED
KEY MESSAGES
1) ALL EYES ON TROPICAL STORM ISAIAS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...ALL EYES ON TROPICAL STORM ISAIAS.
QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK WITH A
COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THURSDAY TO DELIVER ADDITIONAL DRY AND
COOL TEMPERATURES. THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE FORECAST SHIFTS TO TROPICAL
STORM ISAIAS WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. MODEL GUIDANCE, BOTH PHYSICAL AND AI BASED, ARE
IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM MAKING LANDFALL (EXACT LOCATIONS
DIFFER) AND HEADING NORTH INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. GLOBAL MODELS
SUGGEST THAT ISAIAS WILL WEAKEN INTO A POST-TROPICAL STORM
DEPRESSION BY THIS WEEKEND BUT MAY VEER SHARPLY EASTWARD TOWARDS
THE MID-ATLANTIC. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE MID-LEVEL WEATHER
PATTERN WHICH HAS A JET OVER THE CONUS/CANADIAN BORDER. BY
SATURDAY NIGHT, ISAIAS WILL BECOME MORE OF A TROUGH AND GET
CAUGHT IN THE WESTERLY FLOW WHICH SWINGS IT TOWARDS THE EAST
COAST. THIS SUGGESTS A MULT-IDAY PERIOD OF SHOWERS FOR OUR
AREA. HOW MUCH RAIN WE GET WILL DEPEND ON THE ACTUAL PATH OF THE
STORM BUT EARLY PROJECTIONS HAVE UP TO 1 TO 3 INCHES OVER THE
ENTIRE EVENT. THIS IS NOT ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY MAJOR FLOOD
CONCERNS BUT SOME AREAS, SUCH AS THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE, MAY
RECEIVE HIGHER AMOUNTS FROM ALL THE SOUTHWARD MOVING RAIN FROM
ISAIAS. THE RAIN FROM ISAIAS MAY ALSO START AS EARLY AS SATURDAY
NIGHT AND MAY CONTINUE AS LATE AS TUESDAY MORNING. THE REMNANTS
OF ISAIAS WILL STILL HAVE A RELATIVELY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
WHICH MAY DELIVER SOME GUSTY WINDS UP TO 35 MPH AS IT GOES
THROUGH. FOLLOWING THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED COLD FRONT, A STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL BE
ENTRENCHED INTO THE MOUNTAINS PRIOR TO ISAIAS'S ARRIVAL. THE END
RESULT WILL BE PLENTY OF SHOWERS BUT LITTLE TO NO CONVECTION
AND THE RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS, LET ALONE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS,
IS LOW. THIS FORECAST WILL EVOLVE AS TROPICAL STORM ISAIAS
STRENGTHENS AND ADDITIONAL DATA COMES IN.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN THE AREA AND WILL KEEP CONDITIONS
BENIGN AND VFR FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. CLEAR SKIES
WITH LITTLE WIND WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE DAY INTO
TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT, THERE WILL BE ANOTHER ROUND OF EARLY MORNING
FOG, PARTICULARLY AT KBCB AND KLWB. THE PRESENCE OF WESTERLY
WINDS OF ABOUT 5 KNOTS MAY TRIM THE EXTENT OF THE FOG BUT ALL
FOG IS EXPECTED TO LIFT SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY AND WINDS WILL PICK UP TO ABOUT 15 KNOTS
FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT IS STILL A LITTLE
UNCERTAIN SO DEPENDING ON WHEN IT ARRIVES COULD MEAN LITTLE TO
NO FOG AT ALL THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED TERMINALS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
VFR WEATHER CONTINUES WITH CHANCES OF EARLY MORNING FOG UNTIL
THIS WEEKEND WHEN THE REGION MAY BE AFFECTED BY TROPICAL STORM
ISAIAS. THE STORM IS CURRENTLY PROJECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
MAINLAND BY SATURDAY AND BE JUST WEST OF US TO GIVE EACH
TERMINAL PRECIPITATION. ISAIAS MAY THEN SHARPLY TURN EASTWARD
AND HEAD STRAIGHT THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC AS A TROUGH. WINDS
MAY PICK UP AS A RESULT BUT IT IS TOO EARLY TO KNOW THE STORM'S
EXACT TRACK AND POTENTIAL IMPACTS TO THE AIRPORTS. WHAT IS MORE
LIKELY, HOWEVER, IS RAIN FROM THE SYSTEM. THE SHOWERS THAT COME
FROM IT MAY NOT HAVE THUNDER OR LIGHTNING BUT THE RAIN WILL
REDUCE VISIBILITIES AT ALL THE AIRPORTS THIS WEEKEND AND
POSSIBLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CG
AVIATION...CG
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