668
FXUS61 KRNK 130701
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
301 AM EDT THU AUG 13 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
FLOOD WATCH WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE THIS MORNING.
UPDATED THE AVIATION DISCUSSION.
KEY MESSAGES
1) ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE TODAY, WITH
INCREASING SEVERE THREAT ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE TODAY, WITH
INCREASING SEVERE THREAT ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN CONTINUES TO REMAIN LARGELY UNCHANGED
FROM EARLIER IN THE WEEK, WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REMAINING
QUASI-STATIONARY ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS, AND UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. AT THE SURFACE, A STATIONARY
FRONT WILL GENERALLY REMAIN WITHIN THE VICINITY OF THE VIRGINIA
AND NORTH CAROLINA BORDER THROUGH AT LEAST THE WEEKEND, WHICH
WILL ALLOW FOR DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN MENTIONED ABOVE, THERE CONTINUES TO BE A
MARGINAL THREAT FOR MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS TO ENTER THE
AREA ALONG THIS STATIONARY FRONT OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.
THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE SEVERITY OF THESE
SYSTEMS AS THEY APPROACH THE AREA, AS TIMING OF THEM ENTERING
THE AREA WILL DETERMINE HOW SEVERE THEY WILL BE. IF THESE
SYSTEMS APPROACH DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS, WITH A
PEAK UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT OVER THE REGION, THEN INCREASED
CHANCES FOR SEVERE WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE; HOWEVER, IF THESE
SYSTEMS APPROACH OVERNIGHT OR DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS,
THE CHANCES FOR SEVERE WINDS DIMINISH SIGNIFICANTLY.
BY LATE FRIDAY, THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALSO STARTS TO BUILD OVER
THE CENTRAL GULF STATES, WHICH WILL NUDGE THE TRAIN TRACKS SO TO
SPEAK FOR THESE MCS FURTHER NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION DURING
THE WEEKEND. OVERALL, THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LOOKS TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, WITH TODAY
REMAINING LIMITED IN COVERAGE FOR MUCH OF THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL LIKELY STAY ABOVE NORMAL
EXCEPT A BRIEF DROP TO NEAR NORMAL THIS WEEKEND.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR A MAJORITY OF THE TIME FOR ALL
TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS, LOWERING CIGS AND VSBYS DUE TO RIVER VALLEY FOG LOOK TO
IMPACT BLF AND LWB PRIOR TO SUNRISE. THESE IFR TO LIFR
RESTRICTIONS LOOK TO LIFT TO VFR LEVELS SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD, WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY POSSIBLE FOR TODAY.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LIGHT FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST AT 10
KNOTS OR LESS. WINDS LOOK TO GO CALM AFTER 00 UTC FRIDAY AT ALL
TERMINALS.
OUTLOOK...
PATTERN TREND CONTINUES WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR STORMS, THOUGH
THE BEST CHANCE FOR ORGANIZED STORMS IS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY,
OTHERWISE MORE DIURNAL ACTIVITY INTO THE WEEKEND. MAINLY VFR
OUTSIDE OF ANY STORMS AND LATE NIGHT FOG/STRATUS.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ007-009>020-
022>024.
NC...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ001-002-018.
WV...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ042>044-507-508.
DISCUSSION...EB
AVIATION...EB/WP
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