762
FXUS61 KRNK 102328
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
728 PM EDT WED JUN 10 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SEVERE AND FLOODING THREAT SUBSIDING THIS EVENING. FOG MAY BE
MORE SPREAD OUT LATER TONIGHT DUE TO HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND
SHOWERS FROM TODAY.
CLOUD COVER EXPECTED TO MUTE TEMPERATURES. TRIMMED HIGHS 2 TO 5
DEGREES LOWER THAN MODEL BLENDS (NBM)...MORE IN LINE WITH
MET/MAV MODEL OUTPUT STATISTICS (MOS).
KEY MESSAGES
1: STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MOST
OF THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE IN
THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS.
2: ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MOST
OF THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE IN
THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS.
ASIDE FROM A LONE STORM SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS SURRY/STOKES THAT
BROUGHT SOME TREES DOWN IN THE PAST 30 MINS, ACTIVITY SHOULD
BECOME LESS AND NOT AS STRONG INTO LATE EVENING. FOG APPEARS TO
BE LIKELY LATER TONIGHT SO HAVE ADDED IT TO MOST AREAS PER
INCREASED LOW LEVEL RH FROM THE SHOWERS EARLIER TODAY.
SUBSEQUENT UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL TRAVERSE EAST ACROSS
THE MID-ATLANTIC OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WINDS BECOME MORE WESTERLY,
ALLOWING A LEESIDE TROUGH TO FORM ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. THIS
COMBINATION WILL ALLOW FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TO FORM EACH
AFTERNOON WITH THE AID OF DIURNAL HEATING. A BERMUDA HIGH IN THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO FEED A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF
WARM, MOIST AIR INTO THE AREA, ESPECIALLY BY TOMORROW, FURTHER
ENHANCING STORM DEVELOPMENT.
FOR THE REST OF TODAY, SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE MOVED INTO THE
PIEDMONT AND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH AND EAST. ISOLATED SEVERE
WEATHER REMAINS POSSIBLE, IN THE FORM OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
SMALL HAIL. EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ALSO REMAINS POSSIBLE, GENERALLY
ANYWHERE SOUTH OF I-64, WHICH COULD CAUSE ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING IN
FLOOD-PRONE AREAS. HIGH RAIN RATES OF 2-4"+ PER HOUR, AND ANY STORMS
THAT MOVE OVER THE SAME AREAS REPEATEDLY WOULD BE THE MOST LIKELY
CAUSE OF FLOODING IN VULNERABLE LOCATIONS. SHOWERS/STORMS MOVE OUT
BY THIS EVENING, WITH MOSTLY QUIETER WEATHER INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.
ON THURSDAY, MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE, WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
AMOUNTS NEARING 2.00". THIS WILL ALLOW STORMS TO PRODUCE EFFICIENT
RAINFALL AND HIGH RAIN RATES, WITH ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE,
MAINLY CONFINED TO WEST VIRGINIA. SEVERE WEATHER WILL ALSO BE A
THREAT AGAIN TOMORROW, AS WARMER TEMPERATURES AND CLEARER SKIES WILL
INCREASE INSTABILITY. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH STORM COVERAGE
FOR TOMORROW, AS CAM MODELS HAVE A WIDE RANGE OF POSSIBILITIES.
HOWEVER, VIRTUALLY ALL MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED TO EFFECTIVELY CAPTURE
STORM COMPLEXES OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. ANY STORMS THAT DO
FORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL. THE
ENTIRE AREA IS IN A MARGINAL RISK, WITH A SLIGHT RISK FOR LOCATIONS
NORTH OF US-460.
FRIDAY WILL SEE YET ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON, WITH THE SAME AREAS IN A MARGINAL AND SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE WEATHER AS WAS THE CASE ON THURSDAY. DAMAGING WINDS AND
POSSIBLY LARGE HAIL WILL AGAIN BE THE THREATS. ISOLATED FLASH
FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE FAR WESTERN MOUNTAINS. THE ONE
DIFFERENCE FOR FRIDAY WILL BE THAT THE TROUGH PUSHES EAST AND A COLD
FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA, WHICH WILL BE THE MAIN FORCING FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS TO DEVELOP, LEADING TO MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE.
KEY MESSAGE 2: ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY.
WINDS LOOK TO TURN WESTERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT, THAT LOOKS TO PUSH INTO THE
REGION LATE IN THE DAY ON FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE
WARM WITH SOME DOWNSLOPING WINDS LEADING TO ADIABATIC WARMING
BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE IN THE PIEDMONT.
DAYTIME HIGHS EACH DAY LOOK TO CLIMB INTO THE MID 90S, WITH
SOME LOCALIZED AREAS POSSIBLY REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 90S
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. THESE HIGH TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH
DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 DEGREES ACROSS
THE REGION WILL LEAD TO HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE 100-105 RANGE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE PIEDMONT ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THESE HEAT
INDEX VALUES ARE JUST BELOW HEAT HEADLINES FOR THE PIEDMONT OF
VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA; NEVERTHELESS, FOLKS SHOULD STILL
CONSIDER TAKING FREQUENT BREAKS INDOORS OR THE SHADE, AS WELL AS
DRINKING PLENTY OF FLUIDS IF WORKING OUTDOORS DURING THE PEAK
OF THE DAYTIME HEAT.
WHILE A FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED FRIDAY, TEMPERATURES DO NOT
LOOK TO DECREASE ON SATURDAY OR SUNDAY; HOWEVER, DEWPOINT
TEMPERATURES WILL DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY ENOUGH THAT HEAT INDEX
VALUES WILL BE TIED CLOSER TO ACTUAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE AREA.
THE LOWER DEWPOINTS WILL SCOUR THE MUGGINESS ACROSS THE AREA,
WHICH WILL INADVERTENTLY PROVIDE SOME RELIEF FROM THE HEAT.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
SHOULD BE VFR THIS EVENING ALL SITES. FOG WILL BECOME AN ISSUE
LATER TONIGHT WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAT MOST IF NOT ALL SITES
SEE AT LEAST MVFR VSBYS TOWARD 09-12Z. LWB/BCB ARE MORE LINE TO
SEE IFR TO LIFR.
SHOULD HAVE FOG ERODE BY 14Z WITH VFR THROUGH THE REST OF THE
DAY. STORMS TOMORROW LOOK MORE WIDELY SCATTERED LATER IN THE DAY
SO AT THE MOMENT ONLY HAVE VCTS AT BLF AFTER 21Z.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK
A SUMMERTIME WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. STILL MAINLY VFR. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BRING SOME
SUB-VFR AT TIMES FRIDAY, AND SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. SATURDAY LOOKS
TO BE THE QUIETER DAY. FOG ALSO A GOOD POSSIBILITY LATE AT
NIGHT WITH PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...EB/WP
AVIATION...EB/WP
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