606
FXUS61 KRNK 221052
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
652 AM EDT SAT AUG 22 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED POPS FOR LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. LOW STRATUS
DECK MAY HANG AROUND THROUGH MOST OF THIS MORNING, THEN BECOME
PARTLY CLOUD IN THE AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
AREA.
AVIATION FORECAST UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE REGION LATE TODAY WILL BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
2) DRIER COOLER WEATHER RETURNS SUNDAY AND CONTINUES INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: A COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE REGION LATE TODAY
WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LATE THIS AFTERNOON, DARK CLOUDS WILL GATHER OVER THE MOUNTAINS
AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO THE
REGION. THUNDERSTORMS WILL IGNITE FIRST ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS,
GRADUALLY SPREADING EAST INTO THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT IN THE
UPPER 70S IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND REACH THE LOW TO MID-80S
ACROSS THE LOWER TERRAIN, HEATING THE HUMID LOWER ATMOSPHERE.
BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER ALONGSIDE COOLING AIR ALOFT WILL ALLOW
THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO DESTABILIZE, CREATING CONDITIONS CAPABLE
OF TRIGGERING A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ANY SEVERE
STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BRING THE RISK OF LOCALIZED DOWNBURSTS
AND DAMAGING WINDS. AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES, WEST WINDS WILL
STRENGTHEN BEHIND THE FRONT, STEADILY DRYING OUT THE ATMOSPHERE
AND CAUSING THE SHOWERS TO DIMINISH AND EXIT THE AREA COMPLETELY
BY MIDNIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 2: DRIER COOLER WEATHER RETURNS SUNDAY AND CONTINUES
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT, A MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR
MASS WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST
ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC. THE COOLEST AIR WILL ARRIVE ON SUNDAY
AND MONDAY, KEEPING HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS AND HOLDING THEM IN THE LOW TO MID-80S TO THE EAST.
MORNING TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL DROP INTO THE
50S, WITH A FEW MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS SLIPPING INTO THE LOW 50S.
PATCHY MORNING FOG WILL DRIFT THROUGH THE MOUNTAIN RIVER
VALLEYS, GIVING WAY TO COOL, CRISP, AND DRY AFTERNOONS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BY THURSDAY, THE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN,
ALLOWING MOISTURE TO RETURN AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN.
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
HIGH-END MVFR TO LOW-END VFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THIS MORNING, WITH A STUBBORN STRATUS DECK SERVING
AS THE PRIMARY RESTRICTION. LIGHT SURFACE WINDS WILL DO LITTLE
TO SCOUR OUT THE TRAPPED MOISTURE THROUGH MID- MORNING, KEEPING
CLOUD BASES LOW. BY AFTERNOON, SOLAR HEATING AND INCREASED
VERTICAL MIXING WILL LIFT CEILINGS BACK INTO VFR TERRITORY.
HOWEVER, AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION
LATER IN THE DAY, TRIGGERING A ROUND OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE OVERALL COVERAGE WILL REMAIN
SCATTERED, STRONG SURFACE HEATING WILL ALLOW A FEW ISOLATED
CELLS TO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE LATE IN THE DAY.
OUTLOOK...
DRIER AIRMASS SITUATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL SINK INTO THE
AREA SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SHOULD BE MAINLY VFR ASIDE
FROM ANY LATE NIGHT FOG, MAINLY LWB/BCB. NEXT SYSTEM APPEARS TO
BRING SOME CHANCES FOR STORMS WEDNESDAY WITH POSSIBILITY FOR
SUB-VFR CIGS/VSBYS.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...RCS
AVIATION...RCS
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