812
FXUS61 KRNK 140653
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
253 AM EDT FRI AUG 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER FOR TODAY AND SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES INCREASE TO NEAR HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA LEVELS IN
THE 100-105 RANGE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
AVIATION UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
1) INCREASING CHANCES FOR STRONG STORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN TODAY
AND SATURDAY, WITH HOT TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO END THE WEEKEND
AND START NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: INCREASING CHANCES FOR STRONG STORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN TODAY
AND SATURDAY, WITH HOT TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO END THE WEEKEND
AND START NEXT WEEK.
THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN CONTINUES TO REMAIN LARGELY UNCHANGED
FROM EARLIER IN THE WEEK, WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REMAINING
QUASI-STATIONARY TO OUR SOUTHWEST AND UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHEAST WITH CLUSTERS OF STORMS WITH EMBEDDED VORTICITY TRACKS
FROM THE MIDWEST INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. A STRONGER MID LEVEL
VORT MAX LOOKS TO EXIT THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY, AND ENTER THE
REGION DURING PEAK HEATING. THIS MID LEVEL VORT MAX LOOKS TO
TRIGGER STORMS ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT THAT HAS GENERALLY
REMAINED IN THE VICINITY OF THE VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA
BORDER. THIS BOUNDARY LOOKS TO REMAIN IN THIS VICINITY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND, WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS FORMING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY
AGAIN ON SATURDAY.
OVERALL TODAY, SEEP LAYER SHEAR LOOKS TO REMAIN AROUND 20 KNOTS.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR MULTICELLULAR CLUSTERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE REGION. THE ENVIRONMENT BY THIS AFTERNOON LOOKS TO HAVE
DCAPE VALUES IN THE 700-1000 J/KG RANGE, WITH SBCAPE VALUES IN
THE 2000-2700 J/KG RANGE. THESE VALUES WILL BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH STRONGER STORMS THAT DEVELOP
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. ALONG WITH THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL,
THE ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES TO REMAIN QUITE MOIST, WITH PWATS IN
THE 1.5-1.8 INCH RANGE AREAWIDE. THIS CAN LEAD TO SUBSTANTIAL
RAINFALL RATES IN THE 3-5 INCH PER HOUR RANGE, WHICH WILL
QUICKLY LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING OF SMALL STREAMS, ROADWAYS, AND
URBAN AREAS IF THEY REMAIN OVER THE SAME AREA FOR TOO LONG.
THE THREAT FOR AN MCS IMPACTING THE AREA HAS REDUCED SOME, BUT
CONTINUES TO REMAIN. CAM GUIDANCE DOES NOT SHOW ANY MCS MOVING
INTO THE REGION; HOWEVER, THE UPPER LEVEL AND MID LEVEL PATTERN
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT IT. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE COMPARED TO EARLIER
IN THE WEEK IS THE LACK OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR PRESENT ACROSS THE
REGION. AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO SLIDE EAST SLOWLY,
THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE WILL INEVITABLY REDUCE SHEAR AND ANY
CHANCES FOR MCS TO IMPACT THE REGION. THIS THREAT WILL LIKELY
SHIFT NORTH OF THE REGION WHERE THE STRONGER MID AND UPPER LEVEL
JET IS EXPECTED TO LIFT TO.
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE FORECAST THOUGH LOOKS LESS ACTIVE SUNDAY
WITH RIDGE BUILDING A LITTLE MORE. AS THIS HAPPENS, TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO RISE, WITH NEAR HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA LEVELS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT OF VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. BY MONDAY EVENING THE RIDGE GETS FLATTENED
WITH MORE SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS THE AREA ONCE AGAIN. THE
FLOW BEING MORE WESTERLY MAY KEEP STORM COVERAGE FOR EAST OF
THE MOUNTAINS SOMEWHAT LIMITED.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR A MAJORITY OF THE TAF PERIOD FOR
ALL TERMINALS. THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT, BLF, BCB, AND
LWB ARE EXPECTED TO SEE MVFR TO IFR CIGS AND VSBYS, WITH BLF AND
BCB ALREADY REPORTING RESTRICTIONS. THESE RESTRICTIONS SHOULD
LIFT BY THE 12-14 UTC TIMEFRAME IN THE MORNING AFTER SUNRISE.
THERE ARE SOME SHOWERS NEAR LWB TONIGHT, AND THESE ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN IN THE VICINITY THROUGH DAYBREAK.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS THE REGION PRIMARILY NORTH OF THE VA/NC
BORDER. IF THESE SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MOVE IN THE VICINITY
OF A TERMINAL, MVFR TO IFR RESTRICTIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AS WELL
AS STRONG AND ERRATIC WINDS.
OVERALL, WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AT AROUND 5-10 KNOTS OUT OF THE
WEST/NORTHWEST FOR ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
PATTERN TREND CONTINUES WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR STORMS, THOUGH
THE BEST CHANCE FOR ORGANIZED STORMS WILL BE TODAY AND
SATURDAY. OTHERWISE MORE DIURNAL ACTIVITY INTO NEXT WEEK. MAINLY
VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY STORMS AND LATE NIGHT FOG/STRATUS.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...EB
AVIATION...EB
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