476
FXUS61 KRNK 142341
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
741 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER DRY THROUGH MONDAY. A
COASTAL LOW MAY BRING AN OPPORTUNITY FOR LIGHT RAIN AS EARLY AS
MONDAY NIGHT. RAIN CHANCES COULD LINGER THROUGH WEDNESDAY. DRY
CONDITIONS RETURN BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /NOW THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 140 PM EDT SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) MOSTLY DRY, BUT INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH MONDAY.
FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WITH ONLY SOME SCATTERED
CUMULUS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO RISE INTO THE MID UPPER 70S/LOW 80S FOR
THIS AFTERNOON.
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AND
WILL SLOWLY DRIFT WEST THROUGH MONDAY. THE MAIN IMPACT WILL JUST
BE INCREASING CLOUD COVER THROUGH MONDAY, BUT A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS MAY REACH INTO THE PIEDMONT BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE, SHOULD REMAIN DRY FOR NEARLY ALL LOCATIONS.
WITH THE CHANCE OF INCREASING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT, NOT AS CONFIDENT
FOR FOG FORMATION, BUT THE INCREASED CLOUDS WILL LIKELY PREVENT
EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. LOWS A BIT WARMER IN THE MID TO
UPPER 50S TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 100 PM EDT SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1. RAIN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF WEEK, DRY ON MONDAY.
2. COOLER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM INITIALLY LOCATED OFF THE COAST OF THE
CAROLINAS WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD. MOISTURE
WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW WILL SPARK ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS BY
TUESDAY MORNING, AND THIS PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST
OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. HIGHEST PROBABILITIES AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS
ARE ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE, WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS AROUND AN
INCH FOR THE PIEDMONT. WITH THE POSITION OF THE LOW RELATIVE TO THE
LOCAL FORECAST AREA, WINDS LOOK TO BE MOSTLY NORTHERLY TO NORTH-
NORTHEASTERLY, ALSO BEING ENHANCED BY A SURFACE HIGH LOCATED OVER
THE NORTHEASTERN US, WHICH WILL BRING SOME DRY AIR SOUTHWARD, IS NOT
VERY FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT, SO CONFIDENCE IN ANY
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS IS LOW. PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END
FOR THE AREA AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY WEDNESDAY.
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE TEMPERED BY CLOUD COVER AND RAIN FOR TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY, IN THE MID 60S AREAWIDE ON TUESDAY, THEN MID 60S IN
THE WEST AND LOW 70S IN THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY. LOWS WILL STICK IN
THE 50S FOR MOST, LOW 60S POSSIBLE IN THE PIEDMONT.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 100 PM EDT SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1. DRIER WEATHER LATE IN THE WEEK, BUT RAIN CHANCES RETURN FOR THE
WEEKEND.
2. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE AREA AND BRING DRY CONDITIONS FOR
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK, AND WEAK RIDGING ALOFT AND INCREASING
HEIGHTS WILL PROMOTE WARMING TEMPERATURES. A TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OVER
THE NORTH CENTRAL US DURING THE WEEKEND, AND PUSH A COLD FRONT
TOWARDS THE APPALACHIANS SATURDAY. WINDS TURN SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF THE FRONT, WHICH WILL BRING MORE MOISTURE
AND WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION, BUMPING TEMPERATURES UP A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, AS WELL AS INCREASING DEWPOINTS. SCATTERED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE, AS WELL AS ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS, GIVEN THE INCREASING INSTABILITY WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND MORE MOISTURE AVAILABLE. HOWEVER, MODELS
DISAGREE ON THE TIMING AND COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, SO CONFIDENCE IS LOWER FOR THE WEEKEND.
FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD, WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID 80S IN THE PIEDMONT, AND MID TO UPPER 70S IN THE WEST. THE
WEEKEND WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER, BUT ULTIMATELY DEPENDS ON THE
TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 741 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2025
EXPECT CLOUD COVER (MOSTLY AC AND CS/CI) TO INCREASE FROM E TO
W ACROSS MOST AREA TERMINALS THROUGH 16/0000 UTC AS A SURFACE
LOW OFF THE NC COAST RETROGRADES SLIGHTLY. DESPITE THIS, FLIGHT
CATEGORIES ACROSS AREA TERMINALS SHOULD REMAIN VFR. THE
EXCEPTION TO THIS COULD BE ACROSS TERMINALS IN THE GREENBRIER
AND NEW RIVER VALLEYS, WHERE VSBYS AND/OR CIGS COULD BRIEFLY
FALL INTO MVFR AND IFR TERRITORY, RESPECTIVELY. SOME OF THESE
RESTRICTIONS COULD BE NEGATED, THOUGH, BY THE INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN UNDER 10 KTS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
OUTLOOK MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...
MONDAY NIGHT: ISOLD-SCTD -SHRA ACROSS SOUTHSIDE VA/NC PIEDMONT
TERMINALS COULD RESULT IN RESTRICTIONS. LOWER VSBYS WILL BE
POSSIBLE W OF THE BLUE RIDGE DUE TO LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING BR
IN RIVER VALLEYS.
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY: POSSIBILITY OF SHRA/TSRA COULD BRING
RESTRICTIONS, ESPECIALLY TO TERMINALS ALONG AND E OF THE BLUE
RIDGE.
THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT: FLIGHT CATEGORIES SHOULD IMPROVE AS A
STORM SYSTEM MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION. NO RESTRICTIONS ARE
EXPECTED.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...BMG
NEAR TERM...BMG
SHORT TERM...AS
LONG TERM...AS
AVIATION...DB
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