956
FXUS61 KRNK 011747
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
147 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, OTHERWISE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR
A WET FINISH TO THE WEEKEND.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE FORECAST THIS
WEEKEND, WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF 1-3 INCHES OF RAIN AND A FEW
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS.
2) UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE FRONT HALF OF THE
WEEK, WITH A POSSIBLE DECREASE IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AT THE END
OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE FORECAST THIS WEEKEND,
WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF 1-3 INCHES OF RAIN AND A FEW STRONG/SEVERE
STORMS.
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL MOVE SLOWLY
EASTWARD INTO KY/TN THIS WEEKEND WITH INFLUX OF MOISTURE LADEN
AIR INTO THE APPALACHIANS...PWATS INCREASING INTO THE 1.50 TO
2.00 INCH RANGE FOR OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL PROMOTE
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, BEGINNING THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY WITH
PRIMARY FOCUS ALONG THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE WHERE CONVECTIVE
ALLOWING MODELS (CAMS) SUGGEST S-SE UPSLOPE FLOW WILL ENHANCE
THE RAIN EFFICIENCY AND PROVIDE FOR AN AREA OF LOW LEVEL LIFT
AND REGENERATION.
AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH DRIVES THE LOW CLOSER TO OUR REGION,
DYNAMIC LIFT WILL ALSO LEAD TO SUSTAINABLE RAIN PRODUCTION EVEN
WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING, PROBABILITY FOR RAINFALL JUST AS
HIGH TONIGHT AS IT WILL BE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
GREATEST HAZARDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE TWO-FOLD.
THE FIRST HAZARDS IS HEAVY RAINFALL, ESPECIALLY GIVEN HOW MOIST
WE EXPECT THE AIRMASS TO BE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE STORM
SYSTEM WILL BE RATHER SLOW-MOVING, ALLOWING FOR THE RAIN TO BE
PERSISTENT. THE DEVELOPMENT OF OFF-AND-ON SHOWERS AND STORMS
OVER SIMILAR AREAS COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED PONDING/FLOODING
ISSUES. AS SUCH, WPC HAS OUR AREA OUTLINED FOR A MARGINAL, OR
LEVEL 1 RISK, OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THROUGH SUNDAY WITH A
SLIGHT, OR LEVEL 2 RISK, OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR THE SOUTHERN
BLUE RIDGE FROM PATRICK AND CARROLL COUNTIES IN VA INTO THE
NORTH CAROLINA HIGH COUNTRY AND NORTHWEST PIEDMONT OF NC.
THE SECOND HAZARD IS THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED STRONG OR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET
SHOULD BE MOVING ACROSS OUR NECK OF THE WOODS SUNDAY AFTERNOON,
RESULTING IN INCREASED DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. THERMODYNAMICALLY,
MIXED-LAYER CAPE VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG (MAYBE A LITTLE MORE)
COULD SEEN, ESPECIALLY FROM SOUTHSIDE VIRGINIA INTO THE NORTH
CAROLINA PIEDMONT. WITH THE INCREASED FORCING PROVIDED BY THE
SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT TO OUR WEST, WE COULD SEE SOME
ISOLATED STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS IN THIS ENVIRONMENT. THERE ARE
A COUPLE OF LIMITING FACTORS IN MY MIND... (1) BOUNDARY LAYER
WIND SPEEDS MIGHT BE A TAD LOW TO GET SIGNIFICANT STORM-SCALE
ORGANIZATION. (2) IF PRECIPITATION IS MORE WIDESPREAD THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST, THEN INSTABILITY SHOULD BE LOWER. GIVEN THE
OVERALL RISK, SPC HAS OUR AREA OUTLINED FOR A MARGINAL RISK
(LEVEL 1) FOR SEEING SEVERE STORMS SUNDAY WITH THE PRIMARY
IMPACT BEING DAMAGING WINDS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE FRONT HALF OF THE WEEK,
WITH A POSSIBLE DECREASE IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AT THE END OF THE
WEEK.
AS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW SETTLES INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY, IT SHOULD
SLOWLY PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH MOST OF OUR AREA BEFORE IT STALLS.
THE UPPER LOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO "SIT AND SPIN" CLOSE TO THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. THIS FEATURE WILL
CONTINUE TO SEND DISTURBANCES THROUGH A RATHER MOIST AIRMASS,
RESULTING IN CONTINUED ODDS OF SEEING DAILY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THERE'S SOME INDICATION THAT CONVECTIVE PROBABILITIES
MAY DECREASE DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AS THE UPPER LOW
EJECTS TOWARD THE NORTHEAST U.S.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE BORDERING BETWEEN VFR/MVFR THIS AFTERNOON,
AS LOW CLOUDS HAVE MOVED INTO THE AREA, AND EVEN A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED NEAR DAN/LYH, THOUGH THEY HAVE NOT
DIRECTLY IMPACTED THE TERMINALS. LIGHT SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO
BLF/LWB IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS, WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A FEW STORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE THIS
AFTERNOON. ALL TERMINALS HAVE THE CHANCE TO SEE RAIN, WHICH
WOULD BRIEFLY LOWER VSBY AND CIGS TO SUB-VFR AS THEY MOVE
THROUGH.
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA, BRINGING
MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCES OF RAINFALL TO ALL TERMINALS. RAIN COULD
BE HEAVY AT TIMES, AS CIGS LOWER TO IFR/LIFR AFTER 03Z IN THE
MOUNTAINS, AND AROUND 08Z IN THE PIEDMONT. PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE IN SPOTS, WITH LWB LIKELY HAVING DENSE FOG THROUGH
MID-MORNING SUNDAY. SCATTERED RAIN CHANCES PERSIST THROUGH THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD AT ALL TERMINALS TOMORROW MORNING.
WINDS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE SOUTH,
GUSTING BETWEEN 15-20 KNOTS AT TIMES. WINDS REDUCE SOME OVERNIGHT,
THOUGH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 15 KNOTS REMAIN POSSIBLE UNTIL AFTER
06Z, WHEN WINDS REDUCE FURTHER. FOR SUNDAY, WINDS SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHEAST, BUT GUSTS REMAIN AROUND 10-15 KNOTS.
CONFIDENCE IN THE ABOVE FORECAST IS MODERATE.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
SHOWER/STORM CHANCES WILL STICK AROUND SUNDAY EVENING, AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. THE FRONT STALLS, ALLOWING DAILY
CHANCES OF RAIN TO CONTINUE, KEEPING LIKELY SUB-VFR FLIGHT
CONDITIONS IN PLACE AT TIMES THROUGH THE WEEK AHEAD. OVERNIGHT
PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE EACH MORNING.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DB/PM
AVIATION...JCB
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