375
FXUS61 KRNK 180102
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
902 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2025
SYNOPSIS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE TIDEWATER OF VIRGINIA WILL SHIFT
NORTH AND WEAKEN ALONG THE NORTHEAST COAST BY THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH A MOISTURE-STARVED
BACKDOOR FRONT MAKING IT INTO OUR AREA THIS WEEKEND. A FEW
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE BUT NOT A LOT IS EXPECTED.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 900 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) A DRY WEATHER PATTERN TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
2) MAY HAVE SOME DENSE FOG ISSUES LATE TONIGHT IN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA.
AN UPPER LOW WAS LOCATED THE TIDEWATER OF VA. IT WILL TRACK
SLOWLY TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND WEAKEN.
FOR THE OVERNIGHT EXPECTING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH DIMINISHING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AS THE ATMOSPHERE STABILIZES. LOW
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE COMFORTABLE WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOWER
60S. AREAS OF FOG ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AS SKIES CLEAR ESPECIALLY
IN THE PIEDMONT AND NORTH OF THE ROANOKE/NEW RIVER VALLEY WHERE
SHOWERS OCCURRED WEDNESDAY.
THURSDAY AFTER ANY FOG LIFTS, EXPECT MAINLY SUNNY SKIES AND
HIGHS ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY WITH UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S IN THE MOUNTAINS, TO MID 80S EAST.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 116 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) HIGH PRESSURE WEDGING RETURNS TO THE REGION.
2) A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THIS WEEKEND.
WEATHER PRIOR TO THE WEEKEND IS A BIT MUNDANE DUE TO A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR NORTHWEST IN CANADA AND ANOTHER TO OUR EAST
IN THE ATLANTIC AND LITTLE ACTION IN BETWEEN. AROUND THIS TIME THERE
WILL BE RIDGING TO OUR NORTH AND TROUGHING TO OUR SOUTH WITH THE MID-
ATLANTIC STUCK DEAD IN THE MIDDLE. THE WEEKEND, HOWEVER, IS A LITTLE
DIFFERENT AS A COLD FRONT THAT PRECEDES THE CANADIAN HIGH WILL
LIKELY PASS THROUGH. THE CANADIAN HIGH WILL PROCEED TO MOVE EAST
OVER NEW ENGLAND AND REINTRODUCE ANOTHER WEDGE INTO THE MOUNTAINS.
THE COLD FRONT WILL REFLECT THIS WEDGING AS IT WILL BEND AROUND THE
MOUNTAINS AND PART OF THE FRONT OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY WILL
RETREAT NORTHEASTWARD AS A WARM FRONT WHILE THE COLD FRONT DOWN IN
THE CAROLINAS WILL STALL. THE WEATHER PATTERN SETUP HEAVILY SUGGESTS
EASTERLY WINDS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ALONG
AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AS THE WEDGING TAKES SHAPE. THESE WINDS
COULD BE A BIT BREEZY AND GUSTING BETWEEN 10-20 MPH, ESPECIALLY ON
SUNDAY. WITH THE FRONT WILL COME A SMALL CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FOR
THE REGION LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. WHILE PWATS DO CLIMB TO ABOUT
1-1.5", THE HIGH PRESSURE WEDGING WILL PUT A LIMIT ON ANY SERIOUS
CONVECTION. OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES WILL SLIGHTLY CHANGE AS THE
FRONT PASSES. FRIDAY, BEFORE THE FRONT, WILL BE THE WARMEST WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. POST-COLD FRONT,
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S AND LOWS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE LOWER 60S TO
LOWER 70S. DEW POINTS WILL DROP A LITTLE AFTER THE COLD FRONT, BUT
WILL RECOVER TO AS HIGH AS THE MID-60S DUE TO THE EASTERLY WINDS.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 117 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
1) CUTOFF LOW MOVES IN THE GREAT PLAINS NEXT WEEK.
WEDGING WILL DETERIORATE AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
NEW ENGLAND MOVES FURTHER EAST AND INTO THE ATLANTIC EARLY NEXT
WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM WESTERN CANADA MOVES
SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT PLAINS AND BECOMES CUTOFF FROM THE MAIN
ZONAL FLOW. THIS CUTOFF LOW STAYS RELATIVELY STATIONARY FOR THE
DURATION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. IT'S SPECIFIC LOCATION WILL HEAVILY
DETERMINE THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE AREA FOR NEXT WEEK SO IT IS
CURRENTLY DIFFICULT TO STATE FOR CERTAIN WHAT CAN BE EXPECTED.
RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE CUTOFF LOW WILL BE TOO FAR WEST
TO AFFECT THE MID-ATLANTIC WHICH WOULD RESULT IN A RELATIVELY QUIET
WEATHER PATTERN. PWATS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO CLIMB TO THE 1.25-
1.75" RANGE WHICH WOULD BE AROUND THE 90TH PERCENTILE
CLIMATOLOGICALLY SPEAKING. SO, IF THIS CUTOFF LOW WERE TO MOVE EAST
AND BRING PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE AREA, HEAVY RAIN WOULD BE A
CONCERN. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MONITORED IN FUTURE FORECASTS.
ALSO, TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE HAS FORMED IN THE ATLANTIC AND IS
CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA OR MAKE LANDFALL OVER THE
UNITED STATES.
AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 900 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY FOR MOST. BUT THERE
WILL BE A WINDOW FROM 06-13Z WHERE FOG WILL FORM AND COULD DROP
VSBYS TO IFR OR LOWER OVER MOST OF THE AREA. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE
IS LWB/BCB/LYH WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE OF AT LEAST MVFR AT
ROA/DAN/BLF.
EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST...
SHOULD MAINTAIN VFR INTO THE WEEKEND ASIDE FROM ANY LATE NIGHT FOG NORMALLY
AT LWB/BCB. A FRONT THIS WEEKEND LOOKS LIMITED ON MOISTURE SO AM
ANTICIPATING VFR. POTENTIAL SUB-VFR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE WEDGES DOWN WHILE WARM LIFTS BACK NORTH.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...WP
NEAR TERM...PM/WP
SHORT TERM...CG
LONG TERM...CG
AVIATION...PM/WP
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