299
FXUS61 KRNK 100542
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
142 AM EDT MON AUG 10 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE ENTIRE FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED. SEVERE AND FLOODING RISKS
WERE INCREASED FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THIS WEEK WITH
DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THIS
WEEK WITH DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OFFSHORE SHOULD KEEP ADVECTING WARM AND HUMID AIR
THROUGHOUT THIS WEEK. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO
REMAIN ELEVATED WITH AMOUNTS OVER 1.5 INCHES. MEANWHILE, A
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD CROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND REACH
THE NORTHEAST BY THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK. THIS OVERALL PATTERN
WILL ALLOW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS EACH AFTERNOON. WHILE FORCING APPEARS WEAK
TODAY, A PASSING COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH WILL PROVIDE MORE LIFT
DURING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT, BOTH DAYS FEATURE AN
INCREASED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO DAMAGING WINDS
AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING FROM HEAVY RAINFALL. CONFIDENCE IN
THESE RISKS IS HIGHEST ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
ALTHOUGH CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DIMINISHES A LITTLE IN INTENSITY
AND COVERAGE TOWARDS THE END OF THIS WEEK, SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY AND OROGRAPHICAL LIFT WILL ENSURE THAT STORM CHANCES
LINGER THROUGHOUT THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
BROKEN CIRRUS WILL PERSIST ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION FOR THE
REST OF THE NIGHT, BUT SOME AREAS COULD CLEAR A LITTLE TOWARDS
DAYBREAK. PATCHY FOG APPEARS POSSIBLE AT BCB AND LWB, BUT
CONFIDENCE ELSEWHERE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION. OVERALL, CONDITIONS
SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN VFR THROUGHOUT TODAY. WINDS WILL
INCREASE FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST DURING THE MORNING AND MAY
GUST UP TO 20 KNOTS AT BLF AND LWB IN THE AFTERNOON. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE APPEARS TOO LIMITED TO INCLUDE ANYWHERE,
BUT THE HIGHEST CHANCE EXISTS IN SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE DURING TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT PASSES TO THE NORTH. SUB-VFR
CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL
IN ANY OF THE STRONGER STORMS. OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING FOG
MAY OCCUR IN THE MOUNTAINS, ESPECIALLY WHERE ANY RAINFALL OCCURS
FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH
CONVECTION MAY BECOME LESS INTENSE AND MORE SCATTERED BY
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN
IS EXPECTED WITH DAILY CHANCES OF STORMS EACH AFTERNOON.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...PW
AVIATION...PW
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