196
FXUS61 KRNK 160544
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
144 AM EDT THU JUL 16 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ALL DISCUSSIONS INCLUDING AVIATION HAVE BEEN UPDATED.
HEAT INDEX VALUES LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW 105F.
KEY MESSAGES
1) WHILE VERY WARM/HOT CONDITIONS PREVAIL, AREAS OF SMOKE WILL
LIKELY SUPPRESS DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY. GIVEN
THIS SCENARIO, HEAT INDICES STAY BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.
2) SCATTERED DAILY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TOMORROW INTO MIDWEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...WHILE VERY WARM/HOT CONDITIONS PREVAIL, AREAS OF
SMOKE WILL LIKELY SUPPRESS DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH
FRIDAY. GIVEN THIS SCENARIO, HEAT INDICES STAY BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA.
SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS TWO MAIN MOISTURE ARTERIES
OVER THE CONUS. ONE EXTENDED FROM THE 4 CORNERS REGION, NORTH TO
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA, AND THEN SE TOWARDS THE DELMARVA
PENINSULA. HE OTHER WAS LOCATED OVER THE DEEP SOUTH. IN BETWEEN
THESE 2 AREAS, HIGH PRESSURE WAS SUPPRESSING ANY PRECIPITATION.
SOME OF THE STRONGEST HEIGHTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE WERE
OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE HAD
WEAKENED SOME WITH A LEE TROUGH IN OUR AREA.
THE RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ABNORMALLY HOT WEATHER
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. SMOKE ALOFT FROM MN AND CANADIAN
WILDFIRES KEPT TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING TOO ABSURDLY HOT
YESTERDAY, AND THIS WILL BE THE CASE AGAIN TODAY AND TOMORROW.
HAVE GONE ABOUT 3-5 DEGREES BELOW MODEL GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS. HAVE
ALSO ADDED HAZE TO THE FORECAST FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS.
HEAT INDICES TODAY SHOULD MAINLY STAY UNDER THE 105 DEGREE
ADVISORY THRESHOLD FOR THE PIEDMONT, BUT MAY STILL EXCEED 100
IN PARTS OF THE PIEDMONT AND ROANOKE VALLEY. FRIDAY LOOKS QUITE
SIMILAR ACROSS THIS AREA SINCE POSSIBLE SHOWER AND STORM RELIEF
SHOULD BE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS. FOR SATURDAY, DEW
POINTS BEGIN TO TICK BACK UP, BUT WE WILL ALSO SEE MORE
CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION BY THE AFTERNOON. SO IT WILL STILL
BE PLENTY HOT AND HUMID. HAVE LOWERED POPS A CATEGORY SATURDAY
AS THE NBM CONTINUES TO BE VERY BULLISH (NEAR 100 PERCENT FOR
SUMMERTIME CONVECTION).
SUNDAY INTO WEDNESDAY DEFINITELY LOOK COOLER WITH ACTIVE WNW
TROUGHING REPLACING RIDGING, BRINGING PLENTY OF CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...SCATTERED DAILY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TOMORROW INTO MID WEEK.
ALL OR PORTIONS OF THE AREA ARE INCLUDED IN WPC'S EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL OUTLOOK FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. PWATS WILL RANGE FROM
1.30 (NORTH) TO ABOUT 1.75 INCHES (SOUTH) EACH OF THESE DAYS.
DEEP WARM CLOUD DEPTHS WILL SUPPORT TALL UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF
HOLDING A LOT OF WATER, AND STORM MOTIONS WILL BE RELATIVELY
SLOW. THIS ALONG WITH THE FACT THAT A SURFACE BOUNDARY MAY BE IN
THE AREA SUGGESTING TRAINING CELLS DOES POINT TOWARDS AREAS OF
HEAVY RAINFALL RESULTING IN ISOLATED URBAN, SMALL STREAM, AND
FLASH FLOODING. SEVERE WEATHER IN THE FORM OF DOWNBURSTS LOOKS
UNLIKELY UNTIL SATURDAY, WHEN STRONG PVA IS ABLE TO WORK INTO
THE AREA.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO LAST THROUGH THE PERIOD OUTSIDE OF
POSSIBLE MORNING RIVER VALLEY FOG AT BCB AND LWB. WHILE SURFACE
VSBYS LOOK TO REMAIN CLEAR, SOME SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES IN
CANADA/UPPER MIDWEST THAT HAVE BLOWN OVER THE AREA MAY IMPACT
VSBYS ALOFT. WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN LIGHT ACROSS THE AREA AT
AROUND 5 KNOTS OR LESS, WITH A GENERALLY NW FLOW EXPECTED FOR
MOST TERMINALS ON THURSDAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
SHOWER AND STORMS CHANCES RETURN FRIDAY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH POTENTIAL SUB-MVFR OR CONDITIONS. MOUNTAIN
VALLEY FOG/LOW STRATUS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE EACH MORNING.
EXPECT AN EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE WIND FRIDAY, WITH GUSTS
BELOW 15 KTS. A WESTERLY WIND WITH SPEEDS BETWEEN 6 AND 12 KTS
DEVELOPS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS OR SO.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SH
AVIATION...AB/EB
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