564
FXUS61 KRNK 080001
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
800 PM EDT SUN JUN 7 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL DEVELOP
OVER OUR EASTERN COUNTIES THROUGH THIS EVENING. A FEW STORMS MAY BE
STRONG TO SEVERE.
DAILY CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING RAIN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND.
HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD BUT LOOK TO STAY BELOW HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA AT THIS TIME.
KEY MESSAGES
1: ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE IN PARTS OF THE FAR EAST THROUGH
TONIGHT, THEN AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK.
2: WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUE, WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL READINGS FOR
THE PIEDMONT AND URBAN AREAS INCLUDING ROANOKE, ESPECIALLY NEXT
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE IN PARTS OF THE FAR
EAST THROUGH TONIGHT, THEN AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS
FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH EVOLUTION OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SAGGING SOUTHWESTWARD INTO PART OF THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT AS A
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS NORTHEAST. PARTS OF THE NORTH AND EAST WILL
HAVE A GREATER CHANCE OF CONVECTIVE TRIGGERING WITH THIS FEATURE
ALONG WITH THE ORIENTATION OF THE INSTABILITY AXIS AND MARGINAL DEEP
LAYER BULK SHEAR NEAR 25-30 KTS. GIVEN THIS THERE COULD BE SOME
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE DEVELOPMENT WITH STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS
AS THE MAIN THREAT AND SPC CONTINUES TO HAVE OUR EASTERN PIEDMONT
INCLUDED IN A MARGINAL RISK THROUGH TONIGHT. CONVECTION MAY REACH AS
FAR SOUTH AS DANVILLE TONIGHT, BUT SHOULD BE WEAKER THERE.
THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE HIGH SHOULD KEEP THE EAST MAINLY DRY
FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE FRONT AND MOISTURE AXIS LOOKS TO
STALL NEAR THE WESTERN CWA. A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE SHOULD SLOWLY
TRAVERSE THE AREA WEDNESDAY ALLOWING FOR GREATER CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
AND A MORE MOIST AND CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS SHOULD REMAIN
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK ALLOWING FOR A MORE SUMMERTIME REGIME WITH
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND STORMS EVEN INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
KEY MESSAGE 2: WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUE, WITH WELL ABOVE
NORMAL READINGS FOR THE PIEDMONT AND URBAN AREAS INCLUDING
ROANOKE, ESPECIALLY NEXT THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
ON MONDAY, A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO HAVE PARTIALLY
PUSHED THROUGH THE AREA, AND CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES
FROM GETTING EXTREMELY HOT. THAT SAID, READINGS WILL STILL NUDGE
INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S FOR URBAN AREAS LIKE ROANOKE,
LYNCHBURG, AND SOUTH OVER THE PIEDMONT, WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES IN
THE 15-17C RANGE. THE ECWMF EXTREME FORECAST INDEX AND SHIFT OF
TAILS IS HIGHLIGHTING THE ANOMALOUSLY HOT WEATHER AS WELL FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK AND INTO SATURDAY EVEN FOR AREAS ALONG AND
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE, WHERE HIGHS WILL REACH THE UPPER 80S TO MID
90S MOST DAYS. FOR THE MOUNTAINS, IT WILL STILL BE WARM, BUT HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 80S TO LOW 90S.
ALTHOUGH WE WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR TEMPERATURES AT TIMES
ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE, HEAT INDICES SHOULD BE AT OR BELOW
100F, AND MOST RECORD-BREAKING HEAT WILL REMAIN OUTSIDE OF OUR
FORECAST AREA. THAT SAID, IT WILL STILL BE UNPLEASANT WITH HUMIDITY
ALSO BECOMING A FACTOR THIS WEEK. WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY LOOK
ESPECIALLY MUGGY.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE 08/00Z TAF PERIOD,
WITH LOCALIZED POCKETS OF LIGHT FOG POSSIBLE TOWARD DAWN ON MONDAY.
WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT OVERNIGHT, WITH GUSTS IN THE 10KT
TO 15KT RANGE ON MONDAY AFTERNOON FROM THE EAST-NORTHEAST. GIVEN THE
UPSLOPE WINDFLOW ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS, MAY SEE LOCALIZED SHOWERS
DEVELOP ALONG THE RIDGELINES AFTER 18Z WITH AFTERNOON HEATING, BUT
COVERAGE WILL BE LOW ENOUGH THAT WILL NOT ENTER THEM INTO THE TAFS.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND LOWER AFTER 21Z AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK
THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE ACTIVE STARTING EARLY TUESDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST, ALLOWING DEEPER MOISTURE TO RETURN TO
THE LOWER MID-ATLANTIC REGION. THIS WILL BRING INCREASED COVERAGE OF
DAYTIME HEATING-DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS DURING EARLY AFTERNOON AND SPREAD ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT DURING LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. PATCHY OVERNIGHT
FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS AREAS THAT RECEIVED HEAVY
DOWNPOURS DURING THE EVENING PRIOR.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SH
AVIATION...NF
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