205  
FXUS61 KRNK 222346  
AFDRNK  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA  
646 PM EST FRI FEB 22 2019  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH NORTH FROM THE SOUTHEAST UNITED  
STATES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC BY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BE  
FOLLOWED CLOSELY BY A COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE  
REGION SUNDAY, BRINGING AN END TO THE RAIN BY AFTERNOON.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
 
 
AS OF 140 PM EST FRIDAY...  
 
INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH LINGERS ACROSS THE ALLEGHANYS INTO THE  
SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE THIS AFTERNOON. DEEPEST AXIS OF MOISTURE PER WV  
REMAINS SITUATED FROM THE LOWER-MID MS VALLEY EAST NORTHEAST INTO  
THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. REGIONAL RADAR  
SHOWING MAINLY LIGHT BAND OF RAIN/SHOWERS ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA,  
BUT HAVE HAD SOME MODERATE RAIN SET UP ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE  
SOUTHWEST OF THE NEW RIVER VALLEY PROMPTING SOME FLOOD ADVISORIES.  
 
PATTERN AND MODELS SHOWING A LULL IN MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN THIS  
EVENING, THEN SURGE OF RAINFALL ARRIVES FROM THE TN VALLEY AND  
CAROLINAS LATE TONIGHT AS UPPER SUPPORT INCREASES OVER THE  
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. ALL MODELS ARE HITTING THE MOUNTAINS  
HARDEST WITH QPF LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE SATURDAY BUT AT THE SAME  
TIME THIS AXIS CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE COURSE OF 12  
TO 18 HOURS.  
 
SEEING HOW HEAVY THE NAM/GFS AND TO AN EXTENT THE ECM ARE SHOWING  
QPF, INCREASING RAINFALL AMOUNTS BY ANOTHER 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH  
ESPECIALLY ACROSS VA AND SOUTHERN WV, WITH LESS IN NC.  
 
SEE HYDRO SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS ON STREAMS/RIVER FORECASTS.  
 
ANOTHER ISSUE MAY ARISE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY AND THAT IS  
FREEZING RAIN ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES/HIGHEST RIDGES OF THE BLUE  
RIDGE FROM ROANOKE NORTH AND ACROSS THE ALLEGHANYS. CURRENTLY THINK  
A WET GROUND AND RATES INCREASING WITH VERY SHALLOW WEDGE WILL LIMIT  
THIS. COULD SEE AN ADVISORY POSSIBLY BEING NEED ACROSS AMHERST BUT  
AGAIN LOOKS ISOLATED AT BEST AND MAY BE HANDLED BETTER WITH A  
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT.  
 
TEMPS TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO OR REMAIN IN THE 30S, AND WITH RAIN AND  
WEDGE IN PLACE SATURDAY SHOULD ONLY SEE RISES OF ABOUT 5 TO 10  
DEGREES AT MOST, EXCEPT SOUTHWEST VA OUTSIDE THE WEDGE WHERE IT COULD  
REACH 50.  
 
CONFIDENCE IN TEMPS IS MEDIUM, HIGH IN WINDS, AND HIGH IN POPS, BUT  
MEDIUM TO HIGH ON QPF, AND LOW ON ICE.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
 
 
AS OF 230 PM EST FRIDAY...  
 
CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE, BUT THE WEDGE WILL  
CONTINUE TO LINGER OVER THE AREA FOR MOST OF SATURDAY NIGHT. A COLD  
FRONT WILL BEGIN TO ERODE THE WEDGE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE  
EVENING. THE WEDGE WILL ERODE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT OVERNIGHT,  
COMPLETELY OUT OF THE AREA BY SUNRISE. THE WEDGE'S PRIMARY THREAT IS  
TO KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S. OUTSIDE THE WEDGE, MILDER  
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S ARE EXPECTED. EVEN THOUGH THE  
FRONT IS TRACKING OVER THE AREA IN THE MORNING, DYNAMICS ARE GOOD  
FOR A CHANCE OF THUNDER TO BE HEARD. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE  
FRONT COULD PRODUCE ANOTHER QUARTER TO HALF OF AN INCH OF RAIN  
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.  
 
THE WEDGE WILL ERODE QUICKLY SUNDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS  
ACROSS THE REGION. THIS STRONG FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA BY A  
CLOSED LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES. RAIN EXITS THE AREA BY SUNDAY  
AFTERNOON, THEN THE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO BLOW. SHARP PRESSURE RISES  
AND A BROAD 50-60KTS LOW LEVEL JET BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING  
STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.  
THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR JUST BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY  
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BREEZY AND GUSTY S-SW WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE  
AHEAD OF THE FRONT, BUT TO A LESSER EXTENT. WITH A WET GROUND, SUB  
ADVISORY LEVEL WIND SPEEDS AND GUSTS COULD TOPPLE TREES AND CAUSE  
POWER OUTAGES.  
 
WITH THE COLDER AIR LAGGING BEHIND THE FRONT BY A FEW HOURS,  
TEMPERATURES ARE EXCEPTED TO PEAK IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE  
MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE 60S EAST. A COLD BLAST OF AIR WILL SEND  
TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO THE 20S WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND LOW TO  
MID 30S EAST.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
AS OF 245 PM EST FRIDAY...  
 
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE MONDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS  
OVER THE REGION. THIS COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOT STAY LONG, MOVING  
OUT TO SEA TUESDAY NIGHT. A NORTHERN STREAM COLD FRONT WILL TRY TO  
JOIN FORCES WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE LATE WEDNESDAY AND  
BRING A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS. AT THIS TIME, THE TWO DO NOT PHASE  
UNTIL BOTH SYSTEMS MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY  
EVENING. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY KEEP THE AREA DRY BEFORE THE  
NEXT FRONT BRINGS RAIN TO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY  
NIGHT.  
 
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL MONDAY, THEN GRADUALLY WARM ABOVE  
NORMAL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL BRING  
TEMPERATURES BACK TO NORMAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
AS OF 645 PM EST FRIDAY...  
 
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST  
PERIOD ACROSS SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA, NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA AND  
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA, WITH WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS  
AND MVFR VISIBILITIES. LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN ALONG WITH AREAS  
OF FOG ARE EXPECTED.  
 
WINDS WILL GENERALLY TREND TOWARD THE EAST AND NORTHEAST AS WEAK  
LOWER PRESSURE REMAINS WEST OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN  
APPALACHIANS AND HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE MOUNTAINS AND  
FOOTHILLS.  
 
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...  
 
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP EAST THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC  
AREA ON SUNDAY, GRADUALLY DIMINISHING/ENDING THE THREAT FOR  
PRECIPITATION WITH SUBSEQUENT RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS EAST OF  
THE BLUE RIDGE DURING THE AFTERNOON.  
 
HOWEVER, COLDER UPSLOPING WINDS FROM THE WEST OR NORTHWEST  
FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN THE THREAT  
FOR SUB-VFR WEATHER WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THROUGH SUNDAY  
NIGHT, BUT DRY AIR WILL ALLOW VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO ALL  
AREAS MONDAY, WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY BEFORE THE NEXT  
FRONTAL SYSTEM ARRIVES IN THE WED-THU TIME FRAME.  
 
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME QUITE STRONG AND GUSTY BEHIND THE  
FRONT SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY OVER THE  
MOUNTAINS, UNTIL HIGH PRESSURE CAN SUFFICIENTLY BUILD INTO THE  
REGION LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, THEREBY ALLOWING WINDS TO  
GRADUALLY RELAX.  
 

 
   
HYDROLOGY
 
 
AS OF 200 PM EST FRIDAY...  
 
CURRENTLY HAVE A RIVER FLOOD WARNING OUT FOR SOUTH BOSTON ALONG THE  
DAN RIVER. GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTION POTENTIAL MINOR FLOODING ACROSS  
THE REST OF THE DAN RIVER, THE LOWER PORTIONS OF ROANOKE AND PARTS  
OF THE JAMES.  
 
WITH WHERE THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST QPF IS EXPECTED, HAVE CONCERNS THAT  
SOME PORTIONS OF THE ROANOKE, NEW, GREENBRIER, CLINCH AND HOLSTON  
RIVERS MAY FLOOD, SO THE FLOOD WATCH WILL ADDRESS THIS, AND STILL IS  
A GOOD CALL FOR THE ENTIRE HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA.  
 
SMALLER CREEKS AND STREAMS, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE  
RIDGE WILL LIKELY STAY ELEVATED WITH FLOODING A GOOD POSSIBILITY BY  
SATURDAY MORNING.  
 
WITH THIS AMOUNT OF RAINFALL FORECASTED SOME RIVERS MAY BE IN FLOOD  
INTO MONDAY.  
 
STAY TUNED FOR ANY FLOOD ADVISORIES OR WARNINGS.  
 

 
   
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
VA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR VAZ007-009>020.  
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR VAZ022>024-032>035-  
043>047-058-059.  
NC...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR NCZ001-002-018.  
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR NCZ003>006-019-020.  
WV...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR WVZ042>044-507-508.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...RAB/WP  
NEAR TERM...WP  
SHORT TERM...RCS  
LONG TERM...RCS  
AVIATION...AMS/WP  
HYDROLOGY...WP  
 
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