838
FXUS61 KRNK 281103
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
703 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2025
SYNOPSIS
A CHILLY AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO BE SEEN ACROSS THE MID-
ATLANTIC THROUGH MID-WEEK, THANKS TO AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER EASTERN CANADA. A SERIES OF STORM SYSTEMS WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY, ALLOWING PERIODS OF MUCH NEEDED
RAIN TO CONTINUE TO BE SEEN. DRIER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO RETURN TO OUR AREA BY HALLOWEEN.
NEAR TERM /NOW THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT TUE OCT 27 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
- OFF-AND-ON RAIN CONTINUES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MUCH OF
TODAY.
- TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW NORMAL HEADING INTO MID-WEEK.
WHETHER YOU CALL IT "THE WEDGE" OR COLD-AIR DAMMING, IT'S THE
DOMINANT WEATHER PATTERN THAT'S IN CONTROL OF OUR REGION'S WEATHER
EARLY THIS MORNING. WINDS BLOWING CLOCKWISE, AROUND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEAST, CONTINUE TO BRING A DRIER
AIRMASS INTO OUR FORECAST AREA. MEANWHILE, MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE
DRAWN NORTHWARD TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC AS AN EJECTING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH PUSHES AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE COAST OF
THE CAROLINAS. THE STRUGGLE IS REAL, AS THE MOISTURE/STRATIFORM RAIN
TRIES TO MOVE NORTHWARD BUT CAN ONLY MAKE IT "SO FAR" INTO THE DRIER
AIR FROM THE NORTHEAST U.S. THE RESULT ARE WEATHER CONDITIONS THAT
ARE CLAMMY OR DANK, AS THE PRECIPITATION AND ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER
KEEPS HIGH TEMPERATURES BELOW WHAT'S EXPECTED FOR LATE OCTOBER (THE
60S IN MOST PLACES). IF THERE'S ANY GOOD NEWS FROM THIS, WE ARE
GETTING SOME MUCH-NEEDED RAINFALL.
THE RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM SHOULD DIMINISH
TODAY. AS THE AXIS OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH OUR
REGION, THE SURFACE LOW (CURRENTLY) OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST
SHOULD MOVE NORTHEAST. THE NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW SHOULD
BECOME MORE DOMINANT AS THIS HAPPENS, WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A
GRADUAL DECREASE IN THE COVERAGE (END?) OF PRECIPITATION OVER
OUR AREA. TIMING ON THIS WILL LIKELY BE LATE MORNING OVER OUR
WESTERN AREAS, WHILE THIS MAY NOT HAPPEN UNTIL MID- OR LATE
AFTERNOON ACROSS SOME PARTS OF SOUTHSIDE VIRGINIA/NORTH CAROLINA
PIEDMONT. AND WHILE I CAN'T TOTALLY DISCOUNT ADDITIONAL, MORE
DRIZZLY RAIN INTO THE EVENING HOURS (WE'RE TALKING ABOUT "THE
WEDGE" AFTER ALL!), THE ODDS OF SEEING MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION
DROP ACROSS OUR REGION - ALBEIT BRIEFLY - BY LATE AFTERNOON. OUR
NEXT OPPORTUNITY TO GET PRECIPITATION SHOULD ARRIVE BY MID-
WEEK...BUT MORE ON THAT IN A MOMENT.
THANKS TO THE PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER, AND RAINY/DRIZZLY CONDITIONS,
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SOME 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMS
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 130 AM EDT TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WEDNESDAY, LINGERING INTO EARLY THURSDAY.
2. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES, AND BREEZY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
3. DRY, BUT WINDY AND COOLER FOR HALLOWEEN NIGHT.
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY, BEGINNING BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING, AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS NORTHWARD FROM THE
MID TENNESSEE VALLEY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC,
SUPPORTED BY A DEEP 500MB LOW. THE OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION AND
WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL SLOWLY ERODE THE HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE
SITUATED OVER THE AREA, AND SO WILL LIKELY SEE RAIN BEGINNING AS
LIGHT, BUT INCREASING IN INTENSITY BY THE AFTERNOON AS THE WEDGE
ERODES. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER ALONG THE EDGE OF
THE WEDGE, ESPECIALLY IN THE VA SOUTHSIDE WHERE MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE
SUGGESTING SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY. HOWEVER, GIVEN THAT THE CENTER
OF THE LOW MOVES OVER THE APPALACHIANS OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY,
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN ANY SORT OF NOCTURNAL THUNDER, ESPECIALLY
DURING LATE OCTOBER.
MOST OF THE RAIN THAT FALLS WILL BE BENEFICIAL, AS MUCH OF THE LOCAL
FORECAST AREA IN AT LEAST ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS, BUT MODERATE TO
SEVERE DROUGHT EXISTS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. THERE REMAINS A
MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL LEADING TO FLASH FLOODING FOR
WEDNESDAY FOR MOST OF THE AREA, AS RAIN RATES COULD BE HIGH AT
TIMES, AND THUS LEAD TO FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS, ESPECIALLY WITH LEAF LITTER THAT MAY CLOG DRAINS. 48 HOUR
RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT RANGE FROM 1.25" TO OVER 2",
AND SOME LOCATIONS ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE AROUND 2.5" TO NEAR 2.75",
AS THE TERRAIN ENHANCES THE RAINFALL TOTALS.
DRY AIR WILL GET WRAPPED INTO THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM, AND THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW PIVOTS FARTHER NORTH THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY, THUS WILL
SEE RAIN TAPERING OFF FOR MUCH OF THE AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON,
SAVE FOR LINGERING UPSLOPE SHOWERS IN THE WEST WITH THE SURFACE AND
500MB FLOW TURNING NORTHWESTERLY. COLD AIR FILTERING INTO THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING COULD RESULT IN SOME SNOW MIXING
IN WITH THE RAIN FOR THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHEAST WV, BUT NO
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.
BY FRIDAY MORNING, THE CENTER OF THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN
MID ATLANTIC AND THE NORTHEAST US, WELL AWAY FROM THE AREA, WITH DRY
WEATHER FORECAST FOR HALLOWEEN. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY THROUGH THE
PERIOD, GENERALLY BETWEEN 20 TO 30 MPH AREAWIDE, ON THE HIGHER END
OF THE RANGE ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. WINDS WILL LESSEN
SLIGHTLY FRIDAY NIGHT, AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
DEPARTING LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN US
DECREASES.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD, BETWEEN 10 TO
17 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY, IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S,
INCREASING SLIGHTLY TO 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BY FRIDAY, INTO
THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 60S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 130 AM EDT TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1. MOSTLY DRY WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND, THOUGH RAIN CHANCES INCREASE
SUNDAY.
2. TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THE BROAD 500MB TROUGH LOSES AMPLITUDE OVER THE BEGINNING OF THE
WEEKEND, AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN US WILL BUILD INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC, WHICH WILL KEEP THE WEATHER OVER THE LOCAL FORECAST
AREA MAINLY DRY. A SHORTWAVE WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE BASE OF THE
MAIN TROUGH, AND CAUSE IT TO DEEPEN OVER THE EASTERN US LATER IN THE
WEEKEND. BY SUNDAY, LONG RANGE MODELS START TO DIVERGE IN THE
EVOLUTION OF THE 500MB PATTERN, AS SOME MODELS HAVE THE TROUGH
BECOMING A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE MIDWEST AND GULF COAST STATES, WHILE
OTHERS HAVE IT REMAINING AN OPEN WAVE, THUS LEADING TO INCREASING
FORECAST UNCERTAINTY LATER IN THE WEEKEND. THAT BEING SAID, WITH
SOME UPPER LEVEL ENERGY REACHING THE AREA SUNDAY, WILL SEE
INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION, THOUGH REMAINING MOSTLY
CONFINED TO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST
PERIOD, IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE
WEST, AND MID TO UPPER 50S ELSEWHERE, THOUGH SOME LOCATIONS COULD
REACH THE LOW 60S IN THE PIEDMONT AND SOUTHSIDE.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 703 AM EDT TUE OCT 27 2025
EXPECT FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS THROUGH 29/1200 UTC AS PERIODS OF
-RA RESULTS IN FAIRLY WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS, WITH OCCASIONAL
REDUCTIONS INTO IFR TERRITORY. "ROUND 1" OF THE PRECIPITATION
SHOULD DIMINISH IN COVERAGE, GENERALLY FROM W TO E TODAY. EVEN
THOUGH I'VE MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TIMING OF THIS
BASED ON THE LATEST INFORMATION, RA SHOULD GRADUALLY END
STARTING LATE THIS MORNING AT TERMINALS W OF THE BLUE RIDGE,
WITH PRECIP ENDING FARTHER S/E LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
OF SECONDARY IMPACT TO AIRCRAFT WILL BE GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. NE TO E WINDS, WITH SPEEDS OF 10-15 KTS AT MOST
TERMINALS, WILL BE SEEN. OCCASIONAL GUSTS GREATER THAN 20 KTS WILL
BE POSSIBLE AS WELL.
AS THIS INITIAL SYSTEM DEPARTS OUR AREA, THERE WILL WILL LIKELY
BE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE RA. FLIGHT CATEGORIES ARE EXPECTED TO
BRIEFLY IMPROVE DURING THIS TIME, WITH CIGS AOA 035 IN MANY
PLACES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RESTRICTIONS WILL RETURN
OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM, AND ADDITIONAL RA WILL
LIKELY COMMENCE JUST PRIOR TO 29/1200 UTC.
OUTLOOK WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY: RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED AS ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM
BRINGS PERIODS OF -RA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: IMPROVING FLIGHT CATEGORIES ANTICIPATED AS THE STORM
SYSTEM EXITS THE REGION.
FRIDAY-SATURDAY: NO RESTRICTIONS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...DB
NEAR TERM...DB
SHORT TERM...AS
LONG TERM...AS
AVIATION...DB
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