024
FXUS61 KRNK 011032
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
632 AM EDT THU OCT 1 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION FORECAST UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A WARMING TREND PEAKS FRIDAY, WITH A COLD AIR WEDGE BUILDING
IN FOR THE WEEKEND BEHIND A COLD FRONT PASSAGE.
2) THE CURRENT PERIOD OF DRY AND CLEAR WEATHER ENDS LATE FRIDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: A WARMING TREND PEAKS FRIDAY, WITH A COLD AIR WEDGE BUILDING
IN FOR THE WEEKEND BEHIND A COLD FRONT PASSAGE.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST
STATES, WITH THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY LIKELY ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY AND MID- ATLANTIC STATES REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
INCREASING TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF A
COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE REGION LATE ON FRIDAY.
BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
SLIDE FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE NORTHEAST,
WHICH WILL BRIEFLY LEAD TO COLD AIR WEDGING DEVELOPING OVER
VA/NC SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL DRAMATICALLY COOL
TEMPERATURES AREAWIDE BACK TO NORMAL OR JUST BELOW NORMAL FOR
THE WEEKEND. THE POSSIBILITY OF A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
STRONGER COLD FRONT LOOK TO PUSH INTO THE REGION LATE MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY, WHICH LOOKS TO REINFORCE THE COOLER AIR INTO
MIDWEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 2: THE CURRENT PERIOD OF DRY AND CLEAR WEATHER ENDS LATE FRIDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN.
WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY NIGHT, AND MOISTURE
FROM THE REMNANTS FROM POLO OVERRIDING THE FRONT, THE REGION
LOOKS TO BE IN STORE FOR A COUPLE DAYS OF COOL AND RAINY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. RAINFALL TOTALS IN THE 0.5-1.0
INCH RANGE IS ANTICIPATED WITH THIS SYSTEM. ENSEMBLE MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED TOWARDS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY
AIR ALOFT LIFTING SLIGHTLY FURTHER NORTH THAN YESTERDAY'S MODEL
SOLUTIONS. THIS WILL INCREASE RAINFALL PRODUCTION ACROSS THE
AREA EVERY SO SLIGHTLY; HOWEVER, RAINFALL LOOKS TO REMAIN LIGHT
TO MODERATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND OVERALL. THE CUTOFF LINE OF DRY
VS MOIST AIR IS QUITE EVIDENT AND SHARP AT THE 850MB LEVEL, AND
THE PLACEMENT OF THIS LINE AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS WILL
PLAY A GREAT ROLE IN HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION THE AREA SEES OVER
THE WEEKEND. IF THIS LINE REMAINS ACROSS NORTHERN VA AS IS
CURRENTLY FORECASTED, MUCH OF THE AREA WILL SEE BENEFICIAL
RAINFALL; HOWEVER, IF THIS LINE OF DRIER AIR PENETRATES FURTHER
SOUTH BEYOND THE I-64 CORRIDOR, THEN MUCH OF THE AREA WILL MISS
OUT ON ANY HEAVY RAINFALL.
WE DRY OUT NEXT WEEK WITH THE INTRODUCTION OF ANOTHER DRY
AIRMASS BEHIND THE SECOND REINFORCING COLD FRONT.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE BEING OBSERVED AT MOST TERMINALS EXCEPT LWB,
LYH, AND BCB WHERE RIVER VALLEY FOG HAS LEAD TO IFR TO LIFR
RESTRICTIONS THIS MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO ALL
TERMINALS BY THE 12-14 UTC TIMEFRAME. WINDS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD WILL GENERALLY REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AT AROUND 5-10
KNOTS, WITH GUSTS UP TO 15 KNOTS POSSIBLE ACROSS PIEDMONT
TERMINALS TODAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
ASIDE FROM MORNING RIVER/VALLEY FOG, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO PERSIST THROUGH MIDDAY FRIDAY, BEFORE RAIN CHANCES INCREASE
LATE FRIDAY INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND, SOME HEAVY AT TIMES, THOUGH RAIN WILL
NOT BE CONSTANT. WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED EACH DAY,
WITH LIKELY SUB-VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS.
WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST BY SATURDAY, DUE TO A COLD AIR
WEDGE, WITH MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS AGAIN SEEING WINDS SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHEAST BY SUNDAY MORNING AS THE WEDGE LOCKS IN THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT. RAIN CHANCES END AND SKIES FINALLY CLEAR AS THE WEDGE
ERODES MONDAY, WITH WINDS SHIFTING BACK TO THE NORTHWEST, WITH
AREA-WIDE VFR EXPECTED TO RETURN.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...EB
AVIATION...EB/JCB
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