655
FXUS61 KRNK 282321
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
721 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WERE REDUCED THIS EVENING. FOG DEVELOPMENT
IS MORE LIKELY WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE LATER TONIGHT. THE
AVIATION FORECAST HAS ALSO BEEN UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING, AND
PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL FORM WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TONIGHT.
2) HEAT BUILDS INTO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH THIS
EVENING, AND PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL FORM WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
TONIGHT.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS WANING AT THIS HOUR AS
INSTABILITY AND DEWPOINTS DROP FROM THE NORTHWEST. WITH THE COLD
FRONT MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO NORTH CAROLINA, THE SEVERE AND
HYDRO RISKS FROM EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON ARE VANISHING QUICKLY.
WHILE A FEW LEFTOVER SHOWERS COULD LINGER ACROSS THE PIEDMONT
THIS EVENING, DRIER AIR SHOULD BRING DECREASING CLOUDS LATER
TONIGHT. WITH SKIES CLEARING WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND NOTABLE
GROUND MOISTURE STILL IN PLACE, PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL DEVELOP
LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE FOG SHOULD BURN OFF
DURING SATURDAY, WHILE THE COLD FRONT STALLS TO THE SOUTH. ANY
CHANCE OF CONVECTION ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD REMAIN
CONFINED MOSTLY TO THE NORTH CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA BORDER.
KEY MESSAGE 2: HEAT BUILDS INTO NEXT WEEK.
AS CONDITIONS TURN DRIER DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS
THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS ON SUNDAY, A SPRAWLING UPPER RIDGE
EXPANDING FROM THE PLAINS TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST WILL FOCUS A
RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH 90S PREVALENT IN THE
PIEDMONT/ROANOKE/LEXINGTON AREAS AND REACH AROUND 90 IN PORTIONS
OF THE NEW RIVER VALLEY. LONG-RANGE MODELS START TO SHOW SOME
TROUGHINESS MOVING INTO THE NORTHEAST LATE NEXT WEEK, WHICH WILL
PUSH THE RIDGE SOUTHWEST AND TURN THE FLOW TOWARDS THE
NORTHWEST. THIS PATTERN WOULD OPEN THE DOOR FOR POTENTIAL
ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE STORM CLUSTERS AROUND THE THURSDAY TO
FRIDAY TIMEFRAME, BUT THERE IS STILL SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT AS
TO HOW AND WHEN THE RIDGE WEAKENS.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL WANE THIS EVENING, SO ALL
TERMINALS SHOULD EXPERIENCE VFR CONDITIONS EARLY TONIGHT. SKIES
SHOULD CLEAR MORE WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE, WHICH WILL PROVIDE A
GOOD OPPORTUNITY FOR PATCHY DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. THE GREATEST CONFIDENCE IN VISIBILITIES DROPPING TO
LIFR FROM THE FOG IS AT BLF AND LWB. THE FOG SHOULD BURN OFF BY
SATURDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE, CLOUD COVER EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
MAY PROHIBIT FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT AND KEEP CONDITIONS AT VFR.
COVERAGE OF ANY CONVECTION DURING SATURDAY AFTERNOON APPEARS
LIMITED TO THE NORTH CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA BORDER AND THUS
WARRANTS LOW CONFIDENCE ON ANY AVIATION IMPACTS. WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN LIGHT AND TURNING TOWARDS THE EAST ON SATURDAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS ON
SUNDAY TO BRING DRIER WEATHER AND MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WARMING TREND SHOULD TAKE PLACE BETWEEN
MONDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE ONLY POSSIBILITY THAT COULD DISRUPT
THE VFR CONDITIONS WOULD BE ANY PATCHY MORNING FOG IN THE
TYPICAL MOUNTAIN VALLEY TERMINALS.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BMG/PW
AVIATION...PW
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