536
FXUS61 KRNK 101844
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
244 PM EDT SAT OCT 10 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE INCREASED SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
BLUE RIDGE, AND A FEW PEAKS FARTHER NORTH. NO CHANGES TO
HEADLINES AT THIS TIME.
STILL CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY, WITH
A LOW, BUT NON-ZERO, PROBABILITY FOR TORNADOES IN CENTRAL VA.
KEY MESSAGES
1) RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF
HURRICANE ISAIAS CONTINUES TODAY AND TONIGHT.
2) DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADO THREAT ON SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS
OF HURRICANE ISAIAS CONTINUES TODAY AND TONIGHT.
RAIN HAS BEEN MOVING NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA FROM THE REMNANTS
OF ISAIAS THROUGHOUT THE DAY, AND MANY LOCATIONS HAVE SEEN AT
LEAST A BIT OF RAIN, THOUGH IT HAS BEEN MORE SCATTERED COVERAGE
THUS FAR. STILL WORKING TO OVERCOME THE DRIER AND MORE STABLE
AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. THE 12Z SOUNDING
AT RNK HAD A PWAT OF 0.78", WHEREAS THE PWAT ON THE 12Z
SOUNDING TO THE SOUTH AT GSO WAS NEARLY DOUBLE THAT, 1.40", SO
PLENTY OF MOISTURE THAT WILL BE ADVECTED INTO THE AREA. AS SUCH,
STILL EXPECTING COVERAGE OF RAIN TO INCREASE, PEAKING DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, AND CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY.
IN GENERAL, MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA IS LIKELY TO SEE 1-3
INCHES OF RAINFALL, WITH HIGHER TOTALS EXPECTED ALONG AND EAST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE DUE TO UPSLOPE FLOW, AND LOWER TOTALS WEST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE GIVEN A RAIN SHADOW EFFECT, AND IN THE PIEDMONT.
SEE THE HYDRO SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS ON THE FLOODING
POTENTIAL.
A VERY STRONG 850MB LLJ IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO A DOWNSLOPE WIND
EVENT FOR AREAS IN SE WEST VIRGINIA, SW VIRGINIA, AND NW NORTH
CAROLINA. MAY STILL HAVE A FEW HIGHER GUSTS ABOVE 3500FT
REACHING CLOSE TO HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA, BUT THESE SHOULD
BE INTERMITTENT AND ISOLATED. SOME OF THE HIGHER ELEVATION
LOCATIONS, SUCH AS BANNER ELK, NC, HAVE ALREADY GUSTED OVER 50
MPH SO FAR TODAY, AND BETWEEN 25 TO 35 MPH ELSEWHERE IN THE
REGION. WIND GUSTS SHOULD DIMINISH BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING AND
INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE LLJ LIFTS NORTHEAST OUT OF THE REGION.
BY MONDAY, ALL REMNANTS OF ISAIAS WILL BE WELL EAST OF THE
REGION WITH JUST SOME LINGERING WRAP AROUND UPSLOPE SHOWERS FOR
THE WESTERN SLOPES THROUGH LATE MONDAY MORNING. DRY THROUGH MOST
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH POSSIBLY THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN BY
THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 2...DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADO THREAT ON SUNDAY.
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, HI-RES GUIDANCE IS STILL SHOWING HIGH
PRESSURE RETREATING ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF
DESTABILIZATION ALONG A TRIPLE POINT IN CENTRAL VIRGINIA/NORTH
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA, WHICH COULD POSE A BRIEF TORNADO
THREAT. MAIN SOURCE OF UNCERTAINTY IS HOW MUCH CLEARING AND THUS
DESTABILIZATION CAN OCCUR. SOME CAMS DO SHOW SBCAPE OF 1000 J/KG
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, DESPITE CONTINUED PRECIPITATION AND CLOUD
COVER. WITH A RETREATING WEDGE BOUNDARY AND AN INFLUX OF VERY
MOIST AIR, ALONG WITH STRONG WINDS FROM THE REMNANT TROPICAL
SYSTEM, THE ENVIRONMENT STILL LOOKS TO BE SUPPORTIVE OF LOW
TOPPED SUPERCELLS, GIVEN 0-1KM SRH EXCEEDING 200M2/S2 AND BULK
SHEAR OF 40-50KTS.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
CONDITIONS HAVE FINALLY STARTED TO DETERIORATE ACROSS THE
REGION, WITH A MIX OF PRETTY MUCH ALL FLIGHT CATEGORIES.
CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER FOR ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THIS
EVENING AS DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVES, FALLING TO 1KFT OR LOWER
AFTER 00Z SUNDAY. SOME UNCERTAINTY IN EXACTING HOW LOW THE
CEILINGS WILL BE, BUT MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN AT LEAST IFR.
RAIN WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS EVENING AND INTO SUNDAY
MORNING, AND COULD BE MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES. EASTERLY WINDS
WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO GUST BETWEEN 25 TO 35 KNOTS FOR MOST OF
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, WITH STRONG WIND SHEAR FOR AREAS
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. GUSTS WILL START TO SUBSIDE BY 15Z OR SO
SUNDAY, AND WINDS WILL TURN MORE SOUTHERLY.
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER WITH SOME OF THE STRONGER
RAINBANDS THAT MOVE INTO THE AREA, BUT CURRENT THINKING IS BEST
CHANCE FOR ANY STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AFTER THE
END OF THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD, 18Z SUNDAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY EVENING
AS THE REMNANTS BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHEAST OUT OF THE REGION. SOME
WRAP AROUND SHOWERS AND LOW STRATUS MAY LINGER IN THE
MOUNTAINS, SO SUB-VFR COULD PERSIST AT BLF/LWB THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. ELSEWHERE, VFR SHOULD RETURN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.
WINDS TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON BEHIND THE
DEPARTING SYSTEM. MAY HAVE GUSTS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
FROM THE NORTHWEST IN THE 20-25KTS RANGE.
BEYOND MONDAY, EXPECTING MORE TRANQUIL WEATHER AND A RETURN TO
WIDESPREAD VFR LASTING THROUGH AT LEAST MID-WEEK.
HYDROLOGY
FAVORED REGIONS FOR HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS LOOK TO BE ALONG
PORTIONS OF THE BLUE RIDGE AS A 50-60KT SOUTHEASTERLY 850MB LLJ
PUSHES INTO THE AREA AS THE REMNANTS OF ISAIAS MOVE INTO THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY LATE TONIGHT. UPSLOPE FLOW FROM THIS LLJ WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO INCREASED RAINFALL TOTALS INTO THE 3 TO 5 INCH
RANGE, WITH PERHAPS SOME LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS EXCEEDING 6
INCHES PARTICULARLY IN NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA.
THIS GENERAL AREA HAS THE GREATEST CONCERN FOR FLOODING GIVEN
THE UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT, ALONG WITH INCREASING DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE (PWAT VALUES NEARING 2"), WHICH COULD RESULT IN PERIODS
OF HIGHER INTENSITY RAIN RATES. TIMEFRAME FOR THE HIGHEST
RAINFALL RATES WILL BE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
RATES COULD EXCEED 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY
CLOSER TO SUNRISE ON SUNDAY AS RAINFALL BECOMES MORE
CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED COINCIDING WITH THE WARM SECTOR LIFTING
NORTH INTO THE CAROLINAS.
THIS PERIOD OF TIME WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY GIVEN
MULTIPLE INCHES OF RAIN MAY HAVE ALREADY FALLEN, AND THESE
HIGHER RAIN RATES COULD ENHANCE THE FLOODING THREAT, ESPECIALLY
FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA. AS RAINFALL
AMOUNTS BEGIN TO EXCEED 4-5 INCHES, THESE HIGHER TOTALS MAY ALSO
LEAD TO ISOLATED INSTANCES OF LANDSLIDES ALONG SLOPES THAT HAVE
BEEN MODIFIED BY HUMANS LIKE EMBANKMENTS OR CUT SLOPES.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR VAZ015>017-032.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR VAZ007-009-015.
NC...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR NCZ001>003-018-019.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR NCZ001-018.
WV...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR WVZ042-043-508.
DISCUSSION...AS/BMG
AVIATION...AS/BMG
HYDROLOGY...BMG
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