738
FXUS61 KRNK 270012
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
812 PM EDT FRI JUL 26 2024
SYNOPSIS
A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL KEEP CLOUDY SKIES AND SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH WILL BRING DRIER AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
GRADUALLY INCREASE BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER
FRONT PUSHES CLOSER TO THE REGION.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 1245 PM EDT FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1)STALLED FRONT WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND STORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
2)HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRIER CONDITIONS AND CLEARER SKIES TOMORROW
A WEAK FRONT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG THE VIRGINIA/NORTH CAROLINA
BORDER AND SURFACE FLOW IS MAINLY FROM EAST/NORTHEAST NORTH OF
THE FRONT. AFTERNOON SURFACE HEATING AND MODEST RESIDUAL
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE HAS ALLOWED FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO ALREADY
FORM. STRONGER SURFACE HEATING INTO THE AFTERNOON AND INCREASED
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY SHOULD ALLOW FOR AN UPTICK IN
COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH BEST CONFIDENCE IN
RAIN/STORMS OVER THE NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS AND
NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.
SHOULD SEE RAIN/STORM ACTIVITY DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH LOSS
OF HEATING.
SKIES GRADUALLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PUSH
INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES. FOG DEVELOPS AFTER
MIDNIGHT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND RIVER VALLEYS.
UNDER BETTER INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE ON SATURDAY SO DRIER
CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE BECOMING MORE LIKELY.
PERHAPS A VERY ISOLATED CHANCE OF A MOUNTAIN SHOWER ACROSS THE
NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS FROM RESIDUAL EASTERLY FLOW, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS RATHER HIGH THAT MOST OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN
DRY.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 100 PM EDT FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
2. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE EASTERN US THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, WHILE HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL KEEP THE AREA
DRY FOR THE START OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL
SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD, ADVECTING WARMER AIR AND MORE
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA VIA INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. THE
PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH COULD SPARK SOME ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AND MONDAY, WITH THE
HIGHEST PROBABILITIES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN, GIVEN ADDITIONAL
OROGRAPHIC LIFT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO JUST BELOW
SEASONAL NORMALS, THOUGH STARTING TO TREND WARMER BY MONDAY, AND
THE ADDED MOISTURE WILL INCREASE RELATIVE HUMIDITY THROUGH THE
BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK. LOWS WILL BE ON THE COOLER SIDE
SUNDAY MORNING, THANKS TO THE PUSH OF DRIER AIR, IN THE 60S FOR
MOST, POSSIBLY UPPER 50S FOR THE TYPICAL COOL SPOTS, LIKE BURKES
GARDEN, VA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 70S FOR THE
MOUNTAINS, AND IN THE 80S ELSEWHERE.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 100 PM EDT FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK.
2. TEMPERATURES ON WARMING TREND.
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD OVER THE WESTERN US, WHILE
TROUGHING ALOFT DEEPENS OVER THE EAST THROUGH THE MIDWEEK, THEN
THE RIDGE LOOKS TO EXPAND EASTWARD OVER THE SOUTH TOWARDS THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. WITH THE WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS
PERSISTING OVER THE REGION, EXPECTING NEAR DAILY CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING, TAPERING
OFF AFTER SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING. THE GREATEST
PROBABILITIES FOR CONVECTION WILL BE ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE, AND INCREASED COVERAGE ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALSO CROSSES THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE WORK WEEK, AS HEIGHTS BUILD
OVERHEAD WITH THE RIDGE EXPANDING EASTWARD. HIGHS WILL REACH
THE MID TO UPPER 80S IN THE WEST BY THE END OF THE WEEK, AND
UPPER 80S TO POSSIBLY LOW 90S FOR THE PIEDMONT AND SOUTHSIDE,
AND ROANOKE VALLEY. LOWS WILL BE WARM, GIVEN THE MORE HUMID
AIRMASS, MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S AREAWIDE.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 130 PM EDT FRIDAY...
GENERALLY VFR ACROSS THE AREA WITH A FEW OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS
MAINLY ACROSS THE VIRGINIA PIEDMONT REGION. LOWER END VFR TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING UNTIL A BETTER INFLUENCE OF HIGH
PRESSURE CAN REDUCE CLOUD COVER A BIT. SOME MOUNTAIN SHOWERS
AND PERHAPS ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM THROUGH THE EVENING, BUT NOT
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO ADD ANY MENTION OF TS TO TAFS. FOG DEVELOPMENT
SEEMS RATHER LIKELY AGAIN TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY FOR THE MOUNTAIN
TERMINALS. MAY LINGER AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER DAYBREAK, GIVING WAY
TO VFR THROUGH LATE MORNING.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY, EXCEPT FOR MORNING
IFR/LIFR FOG. MOISTURE RETURNS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK AND AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. VFR
OUTSIDE OF ANY STORMS.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...RAH
NEAR TERM...RAH
SHORT TERM...RAH
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...RAH
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