823
FXUS61 KRNK 150529
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
129 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
LESS COVERAGE OF SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING, DRYING OUT.
AVIATION UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
1) COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS TO START OFF THE WORKWEEK, THEN
WARMING UP BY WEDNESDAY.
2) FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY BRING STRONG/SEVERE STORMS THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: COOLER THAN NORMAL TO START THE WORKWEEK, THEN
WARMING TREND.
EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST TO EAST/SOUTHEAST INTO
THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING LOWER HUMIDITY AND A
BREEZE TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.
AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE BY WEDNESDAY SHOULD SEE TEMPS
RETURNING TO AT OR ABOVE NORMAL WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY.
KEY MESSAGE 2: FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY BRING SOME STRONG/SEVERE
STORMS THURSDAY.
DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, THEN AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
PIVOT ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST THURSDAY, WITH A
STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY JET STREAK FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD PARTS OF
THE OHIO VALLEY INTO NEW ENGLAND. A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS
IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF AN EASTWARD-ADVANCING COLD FRONT AND A
SEVERE RISK MAY UNFOLD ACROSS PARTS OF OUR AREA, BUT ESPECIALLY
NORTH OF I-64.
BEYOND THURSDAY, MODELS DIFFER SOMEWHAT ON SPEED OF FRONT AND
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS. LEANING TOWARD SLOWER SOLUTION, BUT BY
THE WEEKEND ITS LOOKING DRY WITH ANOTHER DROP IN HUMIDITY BY
SATURDAY.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP SUB-VFR CIGS AT BLF/LWB AND AT TIMES
BCB THIS MORNING WITH BLF SINKING JUST BELOW 1KFT THROUGH MID
MORNING, SEEMING MORE LIKE AN EARLY SPRING PATTERN FOR THE LOW
CLOUDS. AT THE MOMENT FOG SEEMS LIMITED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN,
SO WITH NORTHWEST WINDS STAYING UP NOT EXPECTING ANY VSBY
RESTRICTIONS AT ANY TERMINALS.
APPEARS LOW CLOUDS/SUB-VFR CIGS MAY LINGER AT BLF THROUGH THE
REST OF THE DAY, BUT SHOULD LIFT TO AROUND 3KFT BY MID
AFTERNOON. EVERY OTHER TERMINAL SHOULD BE VFR.
A FEW GUSTS TO 20KTS POSSIBLE INTO MID TO LATE MORNING MAINLY
FROM ROA WEST, THEN WINDS DROP MONDAY EVENING. BLF SHOULD
SCATTER OUT BY 00Z.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK
EXPECTING MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDWEEK. CANNOT RULE OUT
SOME RIVER FOG NEAR LWB TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. STORM
CHANCES INCREASE THURSDAY WITH POTENTIAL SUB-VFR THU-FRI.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...RCS/WP
AVIATION...RCS/WP
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