533
FXUS61 KRNK 212336
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
736 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE AVIATION FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED.
LIGHT AND MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS ALONG WITH DRIZZLE THROUGH
TOMORROW.
RAIN CHANCES LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
KEY MESSAGE 1: LIGHT AND MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS ALONG WITH
DRIZZLE THROUGH TOMORROW.
KEY MESSAGE 2: RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: LIGHT AND MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS ALONG WITH
DRIZZLE THROUGH TOMORROW.
INSTABILITY IS WANING WITH MOST OF THE AREA ALREADY WORKED OVER
BY CONVECTION. THE AREAS OF INTENSE LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS
ARE NOW REPLACED BY BATCHES OF RAIN WITH SOME WIND GUSTS TO 20
MPH. THIS ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO WEAKEN WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING TONIGHT. SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES ONE OF THE MAIN
SURFACE BOUNDARIES FROM TODAY HAS SAGGED TOWARDS A HALIFAX TO
DURHAM LINE, AND THIS IS WHERE WE ARE SEEING ISOLATED LIGHTNING
STRIKES. ALTHOUGH SHOWERS LESSEN OVERALL, A BUILDING WEDGE AND
PLENTY OF MOISTURE FROM TODAY'S ACTIVITY WILL MEAN DRIZZLE,
STRATUS, AND FOG OVERNIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST MID MORNING
TOMORROW AND POSSIBLY BEYOND. MODELS ARE CONSISTENTLY KEEPING
ANY BONA FIDE THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR WEST TOMORROW, OUTSIDE OF THE
INFLUENCE OF THE WEDGE. SO FOR NOW THE SEVERE THREAT IS OVER,
BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE DAMP CONDITIONS.
KEY MESSAGE 2: RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK.
BY FRIDAY, A SURFACE HIGH TO OUR NORTHEAST WILL WEDGE INTO THE
MOUNTAINS, OFFERING COOLER CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
(FRIDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-50S TO LOWER 60S).
WHILE THE COLD FRONT WILL BE WELL TO THE SOUTH BY FRIDAY MORNING, A
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE MISSISSIPPI WILL DRAG IT BACK
NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT AND GRANT ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS FOR THE
AREA. THE INFLUENCE OF THE WEDGE WILL MEAN MUCH OF THE STORM
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ELEVATED. CLOUD COVER AND LACK OF SURFACE
HEATING WILL PREVENT ANY SERIOUS CONVECTION BUT THE WARM FRONT AND
CONTINUAL STREAM OF MOISTURE AT THE 850MB LEVEL WILL PROVIDE IDEAL
CONDITIONS FOR PRECIPITATION. IT IS STILL DIFFICULT TO KNOW HOW MUCH
RAIN WILL FALL AS MUCH OF THE SHOWER DEVELOPMENT WILL DEPEND ON THE
SPEED OF THE WARM FRONT AND ITS DURATION IN OUR AREA. THE NORTH
CAROLINA COUNTIES LOOK TO BE THE FAVORED REGION FOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WITH TOTALS REACHING ONE INCH BETWEEN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY
MORNING. AREAS ELSEWHERE MAY RECEIVE MUCH LESS, BETWEEN 0.25-0.67".
FLOOD CONCERNS ARE ALSO LOW FOR THIS PART OF THE FORECAST UNLESS
THERE IS SERIOUS TRAINING OVER A SPECIFIC LOCATION AND ASSUMING AND
RAIN FROM THURSDAY DOES NOT OVER PERFORM. NEVERTHELESS, PWAT
VALUES ARE TO HOLD STEADY BETWEEN 1.5-1.75" INTO NEXT WEEK WHICH
WILL ALLOW FOR SOME HEAVIER RAINFALL RATES IN SOME STORMS.
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE WARM FRONT SHOULD BE TO OUR NORTH AND THE
CAD ERODED. WARM AIR WILL RETURN WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO
LOWER 80S AND DEW POINTS WILL BE AROUND THE 50S AND 60S. THERE
MAY BE A BRIEF QUIET PERIOD IN THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK,
DEPENDING ON HOW LONG IT TAKES FOR THE WARM FRONT TO PROGRESS,
BEFORE ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH TOWARDS
THE END OF NEXT WEEK. THIS FRONT WILL ALSO BE A TRIGGERING
MECHANISM FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT AND KEEP THE RAIN CHANCES GOING.
WHILE THE RAIN IS EXCELLENT FOR THE DROUGHT, MORE ATTENTION MAY
BE NEEDED FOR POSSIBLE FLOODING THREATS AS SEVERAL INCHES OF
RAINFALL MAY HAVE FALLEN BY THE TIME THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES.
SOME MODELS ALSO HINT THE FRONT MAY STALL OVER THE REGION WHICH
MAY PROLONG THE PRECIPITATION TREND. CONFIDENCE ON FLOODING IS
STILL LOW GIVEN HOW FAR OUT THIS EVENT IS AND IT HIGHLY DEPENDS
ON HOW MUCH RAIN FALLS BEFORE THEN. ONCE THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH, HIGHER PRESSURE MOVES IN AND SHOULD PUT A STOP TO THE
RAIN CHANCES.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
INSTABILITY IS WANING WITH MOST OF THE AREA ALREADY WORKED OVER
BY CONVECTION. THE AREAS OF INTENSE LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS
ARE NOW REPLACED BY BATCHES OF RAIN WITH SOME WIND GUSTS TO 15
TO 20 KTS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN WITH THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING TONIGHT. SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES ONE OF
THE MAIN SURFACE BOUNDARIES FROM TODAY HAS SAGGED TOWARDS A
HALIFAX TO DURHAM LINE, AND THIS IS WHERE WE ARE SEEING ISOLATED
LIGHTNING STRIKES. ALTHOUGH SHOWERS LESSEN OVERALL, A BUILDING
WEDGE AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE FROM TODAY'S ACTIVITY WILL MEAN
DRIZZLE, STRATUS, AND FOG OVERNIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST MID MORNING
TOMORROW AND POSSIBLY BEYOND. MODELS ARE CONSISTENTLY KEEPING
ANY BONA FIDE THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR WEST TOMORROW, OUTSIDE OF THE
INFLUENCE OF THE WEDGE. SO FOR NOW THE SEVERE THREAT IS OVER,
BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE DAMP CONDITIONS.
CIGS CONTINUE TO DROP AFTER DARK, AND WE SHOULD SEE
PREDOMINANTLY IFR TO LIFR LEVELS THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD AT ALL TERMINALS AS WEDGING REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH
TOMORROW (AND FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND). ALONG WITH LOW CIGS,
WINDS WILL PREDOMINANTLY BE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST/EAST ACROSS ALL
TERMINALS AT AROUND 5-10 KNOTS, WITH GUSTS IN THE 15-20 KNOT
RANGE AT TIMES.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND LOW CIGS LOOK TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL KEEP CEILINGS AT MVFR TO IFR LEVELS FOR MOST
TERMINALS. WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE MID LEVELS RIDING OVER
COOL NORTHEAST FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL KEEP THESE RESTRICTIONS
IN PLACE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME, AS WELL AS PROVIDE SEVERAL
OPPORTUNITIES FOR PATCHY FOG AT TIMES. GUIDANCE LOOKS TO KEEP
DAILY RAIN CHANCES AND CLOUDS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK, WITH AFTERNOON CONVECTION RETURNING STARTING MONDAY.
THESE CONDITIONS MAY LEAD TO POOR FLIGHT CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CG/EB/SH
AVIATION...EB/SH
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