110
FXUS61 KRNK 271059
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
659 AM EDT TUE OCT 27 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ADDED FIRE WEATHER SECTION TO FOCUS ON POTENTIAL BURN
WINDOWS TODAY AND AGAIN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
OTHERWISE, NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE OVERALL FORECAST.
GUIDANCE MAINTAINS DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEK IN SPITE OF
SOME PERIODIC CLOUD COVER.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEK. THE
FIRST DAY OF NOVEMBER IS THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE
WEEK. THE FIRST DAY OF NOVEMBER IS THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR
RAIN.
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST
STATES THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH. THIS HIGH AMPLITUDE
ANTICYCLONE WILL FLATTEN IN RESPONSE TO SHORT WAVE ENERGY
MOVING THROUGH THE FASTER FLOW TO OUR NORTH. MID AND UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY, REMNANTS OF THE STORM SYSTEM
WHICH PLAGUED THE SOUTHWEST, BUT IS WEAKENING AS IT MOVES
NORTHEAST. ITS PASSAGE WILL BRING A VEIL OF CIRRUS BUT NOTHING
MORE. WE MAY ACTUALLY END OF WITH SOME MARINE STRATO-CU AS THE
SURFACE WINDS BECOME EASTERLY LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...THE
HREF THE MOST BULLISH WITH RESPECT TO THIS CLOUD LAYER. DEPENDING
ON CLOUD THICKNESS, THIS MAY IMPACT TEMPERATURES WITH LOWER
HIGH TEMPS WEDNESDAY AND HIGHER LOW TEMPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
ASIDE FROM THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WEDNESDAY THE
OVERALL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REMAIN SEASONABLY MILD THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH AS A RESULT.
FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
AS FOR THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH
ADVERTISEMENT OF A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TO CROSS THE
COUNTRY OVER THE WEEKEND, BRINGING MOISTURE INTO THE AREA
BEGINNING SUNDAY NOVEMBER 1ST. SOME RAIN MAY SNEAK IN HERE LATE
HALLOWEEN NIGHT, BUT ALL MODELS STILL INSIST ON DRY CONDITIONS
FOR THE TRICK-OR-TREAT CROWD SATURDAY EVENING.
STRENGTH OF THE INITIAL WAVE SUNDAY APPEARS WEAK, BUT MODELS DO
INDICATE SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW WHICH SHOULD ENHANCE THE RAIN
CHANCE ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE. A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES ARE
FORECAST TO FOLLOW DURING THE WEEK, SO IT LOOKS PROMISING FOR
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL, AND THIS SHOULD HELP SNUFF THE LATE
OCTOBER DRY SPELL.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
FORECAST REMAINS DRY. ASIDE FOR PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING,
EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY.
USED TEMPO GROUPS FOR LWB AND BCB TO ACCOUNT FOR FOG OFF THE
RIVERS THIS MORNING. MAINTAINED UNRESTRICTED VSBY ELSEWHERE.
WINDS THIS MORNING WERE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. AFTER 14Z, EXPECT A
LIGHT NORTHEAST WIND OVER THE PIEDMONT AND AN EAST WIND ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS...GENERALLY UNDER 6 KTS BUT WITH A FEW GUSTS UP
TO 15 KTS BETWEEN 14-19Z.
FOR TONIGHT, HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT.
WILL ALSO BE MONITORING SHALLOW EASTERLY FLOW WHICH MAY BRING A
SHALLOW BUT THIN LAYER OF MVFR CIGS TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THE HREF IS THE MOST BULLISH WITH RESPECT TO THIS LOW
LEVEL CLOUD COVER.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
A PERIOD OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS FROM THE EAST MAY DROP CEILINGS
BELOW 3000 FT...MAINLY MVFR, BUT THERE IS A CHANCE IT COULD BE
AS LOW AS IFR WEDNESDAY MORNING. MULTIPLE CLOUD LAYERS MAY
PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE CLEARING THURSDAY.
FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, EXPECTING VFR AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN IS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY NOVEMBER 1ST ASSOCIATED WITH A STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN CONUS. IF MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT, SOUTHEAST
UPSLOPE FLOW WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOW CLOUDS AND
PRECIP SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY WITH LIKELIHOOD FOR
SUB VFR CIGS SUNDAY AND POSSIBLY VSBY PENDING OVERALL COVERAGE
OF PRECIP.
FIRE WEATHER
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH WITH NEAR TO
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT APPRECIABLE CHANCE
FOR RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE SUNDAY WITH ADDITIONAL OPPORTUNITIES
FOR RAIN DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF NOVEMBER.
WITH RESPECT TO THE NEXT FEW DAYS, LOOKING AT A DAY OF FULL SUN
TODAY, WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
APPEAR TO BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH FRIDAY BEING THE WARMEST WITH
HIGHS 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
TRANSPORT WINDS WILL BE FROM AN EASTERLY DIRECTION TODAY AND WEDNESDAY,
THEN SWITCH AROUND TO THE WEST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
PENDING WIND DIRECTION, TODAY, THURSDAY AND FRIDAY SHOULD BE GOOD
BURN DAYS, WITH FRIDAY BEING THE BEST PER THE WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURE FORECAST. CLOUDS WILL INTERFERE WEDNESDAY.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...PM
AVIATION...PM
FIRE WEATHER...PM
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