945
FXUS61 KRNK 111901
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
201 PM EST TUE NOV 11 2025
SYNOPSIS
THE COLD AIR MASS IN PLACE CONTINUES TO MODERATE AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. EXPECT GENERALLY INCREASING
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK. IT
WILL REMAIN WINDY, WITH GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS PERSISTING UNTIL
THURSDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING. THE BIGGEST CONCERN OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS WILL BE THE WIND AND ITS POTENTIAL TO CONTRIBUTE TO
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 200 PM EST TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) GUSTY WINDS RELAX SOME TONIGHT, THEN INCREASE AGAIN BY
TOMORROW MORNING.
2) TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE, BUT GUSTY WINDS WILL HELP KEEP
IT FEELING COOL STILL.
A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST
TODAY, BUT THE COLD AND WINDY AIR MASS IN ITS WAKE IS STILL
AFFECTING THE MID ATLANTIC. THE AIR MASS WILL SLOWLY MODERATE
THROUGH TOMORROW, WITH TEMPERATURES RESPONDING TO RISING
HEIGHTS AND ADDITIONAL SUNSHINE. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST, HELPING
TO BRING IN W/SW WINDS AND BOOSTING TEMPERATURES SOME.
SOME ADDITIONAL CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AS ANOTHER PIECE OF
MID/UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MOVES ACROSS OUR AREA IN CONTINUED
TROUGHING ALOFT. TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF ZERO
WILL ADVECT IN AT 850MB, KEEPING TONIGHT SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER
THAN LAST NIGHT, ALTHOUGH STILL EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO DROP
BELOW FREEZING EVERYWHERE.
EXPECT TEMPERATURES PRETTY CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR HIGHS ALONG AND
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE (UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S) TOMORROW, WHILE
THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS WILL HOVER IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S, A
FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THERE.
THE OTHER MOST PROMINENT SENSIBLE WEATHER FACET WILL BE THE
WIND, WHICH TODAY IS GUSTING INTO THE 25 TO 35 MPH RANGE. EXPECT
A DROP IN SPEEDS TONIGHT, BUT WINDS PICK BACK UP TOMORROW, AND
MAY BEGIN GUSTING ON RIDGETOPS BEFORE DAYBREAK.
AS A RESULT OF THE DRY AIR MASS, SUN, AND WINDS, THE
COMBINATION OF THE WIND AND VERY LOW DEWPOINTS WILL RESULT IN
GOOD DRYING CONDITIONS. PLEASE SEE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION
BELOW.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN THE NEAR TERM FORECAST.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 1230 PM EDT TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
1) GRADUAL WARMING TREND EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT HAS BROUGHT WELL BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
SLIDE EAST OF THE REGION ON THURSDAY. IN THE AFOREMENTIONED
TROUGHS WAKE, UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL START TO BUILD OVER THE
REGION. THIS WILL LEAD TO A GRADUAL WARMING TREND OVER THE
REGION ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY FORECAST
TO BE IN THE LOW 60S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE, AND LOW TO MID 50S
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. BY FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE REGION, 850MB TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO RECOVER TO AROUND 5-10 DEGREES CELSIUS. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR HIGHS TO BUILD INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE, AND UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
WHILE TEMPERATURES RECOVER AREAWIDE, SKIES WILL REMAIN PARTLY
CLOUDY ON THURSDAY, AS MID AND HIGH CLOUDS PUSH OVER THE
REGION FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST DUE TO SOME WEAK MID AND UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES. LATE ON FRIDAY, A WEAK DISTURBANCE IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST INTO THE REGION OUT OF THE CENTRAL US THAT
MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS TO MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS. CHANCES
CURRENTLY REMAIN LOW FOR ACCUMULATING RAINFALL AT THIS TIME.
OVERALL, EXPECT A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK, WITH NO RAINFALL FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 200 PM EST TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) MOSTLY DRY WEEKEND
2) UNCERTAINTY AROUND AN EARLY WEEK SYSTEM
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER MOST OF THE MID-ATLANTIC OVER
THE WEEKEND, KEEPING OUR WEATHER DRY AND QUIET UNTIL SUNDAY. A
WEAK FRONT THAT IS FAIRLY WELL DISTANCED FROM ITS CENTRAL LOW
WILL MEANDER THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY. THIS INTRODUCES A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO THE WESTERN SLOPES
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
WHAT WILL LIKELY BE MORE IMPACTFUL IS THE SYSTEM THAT COMES NEAR
THE START OF NEXT WEEK. THERE IS LITTLE CONSENSUS ON THE
TIMING, WITH SOME DETERMINISTIC MODELS INDICATING A LATE MONDAY
ARRIVAL, AND OTHERS GOING EVEN LATER INTO TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE WARM, SO THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN A RAIN
EVENT, BUT THE INTENSITY AND LONGEVITY ARE STILL QUESTIONS THAT
THE FORECAST DOESN'T HAVE ANSWERS FOR YET.
EXPECT MILD TEMPERATURES FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD, HOVERING
AROUND NORMAL TO JUST ABOVE NORMAL.
AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 200 PM EST TUESDAY...
ALL TERMINALS ARE NOW VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN. WE
REMAIN IN NW FLOW ALOFT, SO THERE WILL BE SOME PASSING VFR CLOUD
COVER.
EXPECT GUSTY WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING, BEFORE
WEAKENING SOME AND THEN INCREASING ONCE AGAIN BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. AS THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION MENTIONED, MODERATE TO
LOCALLY SEVERE LOW LEVEL TURBULENCE CONTINUES JUST EAST (LEE
SIDE) OF THE APPALACHIANS THROUGH TONIGHT AND AGAIN TOMORROW DUE
TO STRONG CROSS BARRIER WIND FLOW. LOW LEVEL WINDS OF 15-20 KTS
WITH GUSTS OF 25-35 KTS CAN BE EXPECTED AT RIDGETOP LEVEL AND
THROUGH THE MOUNTAIN GAPS.
LLWS WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN, WITH ABOUT 40-45 KTS OF WESTERLY
WIND DEVELOPING AT 2KFT, PARTICULARLY AROUND THE TIME WHEN LOCAL
WIND SPEEDS DROP OFF FOR THE NIGHT, AND BEFORE THEY INCREASE
AGAIN TOMORROW MORNING. THIS WILL BE A CONCERN AT BLF, LWB,
BCB, AND ROA. AFTER A DROP IN SPEEDS TONIGHT, WINDS PICK BACK
UP TOMORROW TO 20 TO 30 KTS AT THE TERMINALS, AND HIGHER ON THE
RIDGETOPS, WHICH MAY BEGIN GUSTING BEFORE DAYBREAK. FOR
WEDNESDAY, WINDS WILL BE MORE WESTERLY IN THE MOUNTAINS AND SW
FOR THE PIEDMONT.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK
GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY, BUT GUSTS LESSEN TO 15 TO
20 KTS. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD PROMOTING CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY VFR SKIES. CONDITIONS SHOULD BE MAINLY VFR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY, BUT A FEW MVFR CEILINGS AND/OR SHOWERS MAY MOVE INTO
BLF AND LWB DURING THAT TIME.
FIRE WEATHER
AS OF 200 PM EST TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
1) ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.
THE COMBINATION OF WIND AND LOW HUMIDITY WILL RESULT IN
GOOD DRYING CONDITIONS. IN SPITE OF RECENT PRECIPITATION, LEAF
LITTER WILL DRY QUICKLY, BECOMING CRUNCHY AND RECEPTIVE TO
FIRE.
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO TREND WARMER, AND THIS COMBINED WITH
GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AN INCREASE IN
FIRE DANGER ACROSS THE REGION, BUT ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE, BEGINNING TOMORROW. WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH WILL BE
COMMON WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ACROSS THE RIDGETOPS WEDNESDAY,
AND A VERY DRY AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE THURSDAY, WHEN GUSTS
WILL BE AROUND 20 TO 30 MPH. FOR WEDNESDAY, WINDS WILL BE MORE
WESTERLY IN THE MOUNTAINS AND SW FOR THE PIEDMONT. FOR THURSDAY,
EXPECT MAINLY WNW WINDS, BACKING TO A MORE PURE WESTERLY
DIRECTION FRIDAY.
BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ARE A CONCERN, WITH THE PEAK
POTENTIAL FOR FIRE CONCERNS BEING THURSDAY, WHEN THESE FACTORS
WORK TO PRODUCE HIGHER VAPOR PRESSURE DEFICITS. WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO DIMINISH BY FRIDAY, LESSENING THE EFFECTS OF FIRE
SPREAD. HOWEVER, FRIDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE
WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S, AND STILL FAVORING GOOD BURNING
CONDITIONS.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...SH
NEAR TERM...SH
SHORT TERM...EB
LONG TERM...VFJ
AVIATION...SH
FIRE WEATHER...PM/SH
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page