161
FXUS64 KMRX 150647
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
247 AM EDT WED APR 15 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 244 AM EDT WED APR 15 2026
- WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEK INTO
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. RECORD HIGHS ARE POSSIBLE.
- CHANCE OF SHOWERS THURSDAY EVENING, BUT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT PROVIDING LITTLE RELIEF FROM THE
WORSENING DROUGHT AND FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
- A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING,
FOLLOWED BY COOLER TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 244 AM EDT WED APR 15 2026
UNSEASONABLY HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN WEATHER
STORY FOR THE AREA, THANKS TO A PERSISTENT LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE GULF AND SE CONUS.
FOR WEDNESDAY, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO RECORD HIGHS WITH
A SW FLOW, SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE RIDGE, AND LIMITED CLOUD COVER. LOW
RH VALUES WILL BE OF CONCERN FOR FIRE WEATHER INTERESTS, BOTTOMING
OUT IN THE 25-35% RANGE WEDNESDAY FOR MOST LOCATIONS, BUT FOR THE
MOST PART SW WINDS WILL NOT BE HIGHER THAN THE 5-15 MPH RANGE.
THE MID/UPPER RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY BE INTERRUPTED BY A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST LATE THURSDAY THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS
OUR AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. THE LATE ARRIVAL OF INCREASED CLOUD COVER
AND PRECIP CHANCES THURSDAY WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES NOT FAR OFF THE RECORDS. RH VALUES WILL AGAIN
BOTTOM OUT IN THE 25 TO 35% RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND WINDS
WILL BE SLIGHTLY STRONGER. AS THE SHORT WAVE MOVES IN IT WILL BRING
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT, BUT WEAK
FORCING AND LIMITED MOISTURE WILL GENERALLY RESULT IN LIGHT RAINFALL
AMOUNTS, AND LITTLE OVERALL IMPACT ON THE ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS
AND WILDFIRES (ENSEMBLE DATA HAS CHANCES FOR 24 HOUR PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS EXCEEDING A QUARTER INCH RANGING FROM AROUND 10% TO 30%,
WITH THE HIGHER VALUES ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES). MODELS SHOW
SOME LIMITED INSTABILITY THAT MAY SUPPORT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS, WITH
THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR THUNDER BEING ACROSS OUR PLATEAU COUNTIES.
THE RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK FRIDAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE APPROACHING RECORDS AGAIN ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. BETTER RAIN CHANCES MAY ARRIVE FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS MODELS SHOW A DEEP TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE
PLAINS THAT WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA AS THE TROUGH
MOVES EAST. MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO,
ALTHOUGH DIFFER MORE IN THE DETAILS THAT WILL BE IMPORTANT IN
DETERMINING HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION WE WILL SEE. ENSEMBLE DATA
CURRENTLY SHOWS AROUND A 50% CHANCE OF SEEING OVER A QUARTER INCH OF
RAIN AND CLOSER TO A 20% CHANCE OF SEEING MORE THAN A HALF INCH (24
HOUR PERIOD). WHAT IS MORE CERTAIN THAN THE PRECIP AMOUNTS IS THAT
WE WILL SEE COOLER TEMPERATURES MOVING IN WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
NEAR OR EVEN A BIT BELOW NORMAL BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL BEGIN TO TREND WARMER AGAIN TUESDAY.
DAILY RECORD HIGH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
DATE CHATTANOOGA KNOXVILLE TRI-CITIES OAK RIDGE
04-15 87(2006) 87(1936) 85(1945) 86(2024)
04-16 89(2002) 87(1896) 87(2002) 88(2002)
04-17 91(1955) 90(1896) 85(2002) 88(1955)
04-18 90(2002) 90(1896) 87(2002) 89(2002)
04-19 91(2002) 90(1941) 90(1941) 90(2002)
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 129 AM EDT WED APR 15 2026
LATEST KMRX VAD WIND PROFILE DATA SUGGEST SOUTHWEST WINDS NEAR 25
TO 30 KTS ARE OCCURRING AROUND 2KFT. THIS ALIGNS WELL WITH LATEST
925MB MESOANALYSIS DATA, THUS, CARRIED SOME LLWS FOR THE MORNING
HOURS WITH THIS LATEST TAF ISSUANCE. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAIL. SOUTHWESTERLY SFC WINDS WILL INCREASE IN A TYPICAL
DIURNAL FASHION TODAY. WIND SPEEDS PREDOMINANTLY AROUND 10KTS,
WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS IN THE 15-20KT RANGE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 87 61 87 62 / 0 0 20 20
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 85 61 85 61 / 0 0 20 40
OAK RIDGE, TN 86 59 85 60 / 0 0 30 40
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 83 57 83 59 / 0 0 10 40
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...KRS
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