438
FXUS64 KMRX 180003
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
803 PM EDT WED JUN 17 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 754 PM EDT WED JUN 17 2026
- DRY CONDITIONS EXTEND THROUGH TODAY WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES.
BREEZY WINDS ALSO TO DEVELOP THROUGHOUT THE DAY. HIGHEST GUSTS
POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN UP TO 40 MPH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
- A SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION EARLY TOMORROW MORNING THROUGH
FRIDAY. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AND ISOLATED FLOODING ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE.
- DRIER WEATHER RETURNS LATER ON FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE
MORE RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 159 PM EDT WED JUN 17 2026
CURRENTLY WARMER THAN YESTERDAY, BUT STILL A PLEASANT DAY OUT THERE
WITH DEW POINTS REMAINING MOSTLY IN THE 60'S ACROSS THE REGION. DEW
POINT VALUES WILL BEGIN TO SURGE OVERNIGHT INTO THE 70'S AS LOW
LEVEL WINDS TURN SOUTHERLY AND START TO DRAW UP MOIRE GULF MOISTURE
AHEAD OF OUR NEXT SYSTEMS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION
THURSDAY/FRIDAY.
WE'RE WATCHING A COUPLE OF THINGS FOR THURSDAY, A LOW ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION THAT WILL BRING A FRONT TOWARDS THE REGION, AND
TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR. THE PRIMARY SYSTEM TO BE WATCHING IS THE LOW
TO OUR NORTH AND THE FRONT IT'S EXPECTED TO BRING INTO OUR REGION
LATE THURSDAY. AHEAD OF THE INCOMING FRONT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL REALLY TIGHTEN UP AND LOW LEVEL WINDS RAMP UP OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT TO SEE GUSTY WINDS PICKING UP
ACROSS THE VALLEY ONCE WE GET CLOSER TO SUNSET TONIGHT, AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, AND THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF THURSDAY. AS USUAL THE STRONGEST GUSTS WILL BE IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND THE RIDGES. WE COULD SEE 20-
30 MPH WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 40 MPH IN THESE HIGHER TERRAIN
AREAS.
THE (EXPECTED TO BE) SHORT LIVED TROPICAL STORM ARTHER REMNANTS WILL
MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST TOMORROW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TENNESSEE
VALLEY AND STORMS WILL MOVE UP FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST ALONG
WITH IT. INSTABILITY WILL BE ON THE RISE DURING PEAK HEATING, BUT
OVERALL SHEAR WILL BE DECREASING FROM THE SOUTH TO THE NORTH.
SO THE ATMOSPHERE OUT THERE TOMORROW COULD BE SUPPORTIVE TO SEE
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS FROM EITHER THE REMNANTS OF ARTHUR OR THE
FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH. BETTER DYNAMICS ARE LIKELY TO BE
ASSOCIATED WITH STORMS TO OUR NORTH AS THE BETTER FORCING FROM THE
TS REMNANTS WILL LIKELY REMAIN FURTHER TO OUR SOUTH. WITH PWATS
INCREASING TO NEAR 2 INCHES, FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL WILL BE
PRESENT ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.
SHOWERS AND STORMS CHANCES WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND COOLER FRIDAY WITH WARMING INTO THE
WEEKEND. BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE A PART OF THE WEEKEND
WITH CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION INCREASING SUNDAY. CHANCES THEN
CONTINUE TO PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY, POSSIBLY INTO TUESDAY DRIVEN BY
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SWINGING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND
BRINING ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE REGION.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 754 PM EDT WED JUN 17 2026
SWLY WINDS AND GUSTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.
ESPECIALLY AT TYS AND THEN TRI LATER IN THE DAY TOMORROW. LIGHT
SFC WINDS OVERNIGHT AT TRI AND AN INCREASING LLJ, MAY CREATE LLWS
CONDITIONS UNTIL WINDS TRANSLATE TO THE SFC THERE. MOISTURE
EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH FROM REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR
TOMORROW MORNING. MAY BEGIN AS SHOWERS AT FIRST, BEFORE HEATING OF
THE DAY SUPPORTS A MORE TS ENVIRONMENT. CIG AT LEAST AS LOW AS
MVFR LEVEL WITH VSBY POSSIBLY DROPPING TO IFR UNDER ANY HEAVY
SHOWER OR STORM. SHRA AND TS POTENTIAL TO NOT REACH TRI UNTIL THE
AFTERNOON, MEANWHILE WILL BEGIN EARLIER AT CHA AND TYS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 74 84 70 86 / 20 80 60 40
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 74 86 69 84 / 10 60 80 50
OAK RIDGE, TN 73 86 69 85 / 20 70 70 40
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 67 87 66 82 / 0 70 70 40
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...KS
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