131
FXUS64 KMRX 220113
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
813 PM EST FRI FEB 21 2025
..NEW UPDATE
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 800 PM EST FRI FEB 21 2025
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT
DURING THE EVENING UPDATE. A DRY AND MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT WILL ALLOW
LOWS TO DROP INTO THE TEENS IN MOST LOCATIONS. IT WILL STILL NOT
BE QUITE AS COLD AS LAST NIGHT.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 226 PM EST FRI FEB 21 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
1. ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION.
2. A MODERATION TREND CONTINUES SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION:
FOR TONIGHT, SURFACE RIDGING, CLEAR SKY, AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ONCE
AGAIN ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE TEENS MOST LOCATIONS.
A QUIETER WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS WEEKEND WITH
SURFACE RIDGING. A FAST MOVING SHORT-WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS SATURDAY BUT THIS SYSTEM
IS MOISTURE STARVED. HREF AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS SHOW HIGH/MID
LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE SO A PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKY IS EXPECTED.
MAIN WEATHER STORY IS MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES WITH WARMING 850MB
TEMPERATURES AND THICKNESS.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 226 PM EST FRI FEB 21 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
1. A WARMING TREND AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
2. RAIN CHANCES RETURN MID-WEEK WITH THE BEST CHANCES BEING ON
THURSDAY. A TRANSITION TO LIGHT SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS IS POSSIBLE BY
THE VERY END OF THE PERIOD.
DISCUSSION:
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE DRY CONDITIONS
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE COMBINATION OF AMPLIFYING SOUTHWESTERLY
SURFACE FLOW AND H5 HEIGHTS INCREASING TO NEAR 568DAM MONDAY
AFTERNOON WILL BRING A RETURN OF NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES PER LATE FEBRUARY STANDARDS.
THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO MID-WEEK. OUR NEXT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION RETURNS WITH A QUICK SHORTWAVE TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER, LIMITED MOISTURE AND SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING WILL KEEP
MENTIONABLE RAIN CHANCES CONFINED TO SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND
NORTHEAST TENNESSEE. THE MAJORITY OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY
WILL REMAIN DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH GRADUALLY DEVELOPS TO OUR
WEST.
AS THIS TROUGH TRANSLATES EASTWARD AND AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, INCREASING PROBABILITY OF RAIN IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE WHOLE FORECAST AREA. SOME NORTHWEST FLOW SNOW CANNOT BE
RULED OUT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM THURSDAY NIGHT BUT THE
OVERALL PRECIP IMPACTS FROM THIS SYSTEM REMAIN UNCERTAIN DUE TO
NOTABLE MODEL DISAGREEMENT THIS FAR OUT. MODERATE CONFIDENCE EXISTS
IN THE RETURN OF COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR
FREEZING MAKING A RETURN AT THE END OF THE PERIOD.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 614 PM EST FRI FEB 21 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH DRY WEATHER. INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS TOMORROW MORNING MAY THIN OUT BY LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY TOMORROW.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 24 50 26 53 / 0 0 0 0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 19 46 22 50 / 0 0 0 0
OAK RIDGE, TN 19 46 22 49 / 0 0 0 0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 15 43 21 46 / 0 0 0 0
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SHORT TERM...DH
LONG TERM....KRS
AVIATION...MCD
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