383
FXUS64 KMRX 090643
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
243 AM EDT THU JUL 9 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 242 AM EDT THU JUL 9 2026
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING; THE MAIN IMPACTS FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE STRONG/GUSTY
WINDS, ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING, AND LIGHTNING.
- A WET PATTERN SETS UP FRIDAY AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
WHICH MAY POSE A MORE WIDESPREAD FLOODING THREAT.
- DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 242 AM EDT THU JUL 9 2026
WATER VAPOR SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOCATED OVER WEST TN AND THE
LOWER OH VALLEY. THIS TROUGH WILL BE TRACKING EAST THROUGH TODAY,
AND BE POSITIONED OVER EAST TN BY THE AFTERNOON. THIS MAY RESULT IN
SLIGHTLY BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS THAN WE HAVE HAD OVER THE
PAST FEW DAYS. WE WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN THE
AREA, WITH PW IN THE 1.8-2 INCH RANGE. SLOW-MOVING OR TRAINING CELLS
WILL POSE AN ISOLATED FLOODING THREAT, AND WHILE SOME GUSTY WINDS
ARE POSSIBLE, THEY ARE UNLIKELY TO REACH SEVERE LIMITS AS DCAPE WILL
BE LIMITED.
AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST OF OUR AREA THURSDAY EVENING,
A TRAILING BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD. THE
PROXIMITY OF THIS BOUNDARY ALONG WITH PASSING MIDLEVEL
DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP SHOWERS/STORMS GOING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT
DESPITE THE LOSS OF HEATING. A STRONGER FLOW IN THE 850-500 MB
LAYER ALSO DEVELOPS ON FRIDAY, WHICH WILL BRING SOME BETTER
FORCING FOR LIFT ACROSS A LARGER AREA. THE FLOW IS PARALLEL TO THE
BOUNDARY, WHICH WILL ENHANCE THE FLOODING POTENTIAL ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN SECTIONS. THE PRESENCE OF THE BOUNDARY IN A VERY MOIST
ENVIRONMENT WITH PASSING MIDLEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY. THE
FLOODING THREAT WILL ONLY INCREASE WITH THIS PERSISTENT WET
PATTERN, WITH NORTHERN AREAS HAVING THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL. A FLOOD
WATCH MAY BE NEEDED WITH FUTURE FORECAST PACKAGES. NEIGHBORING
OFFICES HAVE STARTED FLOOD WATCHES ON THURSDAY, BUT FOR OUR AREA,
THE PRIMARY FLOODING THREAT FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA APPEARS
MORE LIKELY TO BEGIN ON FRIDAY, SO WE WILL HOLD OFF AT THIS TIME.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY A BIT UNCERTAIN AS TO WHETHER THE FRONT WILL LIFT
AWAY FROM THE AREA AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS ALONG THE OH
VALLEY, OR IF IT WILL REMAIN NEAR OUR AREA. THE PATTERN SHIFTS TO
DRIER CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY AS A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE
PLAINS EXTENDS EAST AND PRODUCES A DEEP NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE TN
VALLEY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 119 AM EDT THU JUL 9 2026
RAIN HAS LARGELY EXITED THE AREA WITH LOWER CLOUDS AND PATCHY
BEING WHAT TO WATCH INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. CURRENTLY, THE
BEST CHANCES FOR MVFR CEILINGS ARE AT TYS AND TRI WITH TRI HAVING
THE BEST CHANCE FOR FOG OR IFR CEILINGS. CHA IS EXPECTED TO SEE
CLOUDS AT OR BELOW 3,000 FEET, BUT CEILINGS WILL BE LESS COMMON AT
THAT LEVEL. TRI WILL BE SLOWEST TO IMPROVE BACK TO VFR,
POTENTIALLY NOT UNTIL THE EARLY AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER COVERAGE THAN
YESTERDAY. PROB30S WERE INTRODUCED AT ALL 3 SITES SINCE THERE ARE
FAIRLY EQUAL CHANCES AT EACH.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 90 73 90 73 / 40 10 90 50
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 87 71 86 71 / 30 30 90 80
OAK RIDGE, TN 87 70 86 70 / 40 40 90 80
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 84 67 83 67 / 60 40 90 90
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DGS
AVIATION...BW
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