773
FXUS64 KMRX 281133
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
633 AM EST SUN DEC 28 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 520 AM EST SUN DEC 28 2025
- ANOTHER WARM DAY SUNDAY WITH POSSIBLE RECORD HIGHS BEING BROKEN
AGAIN
- SHOWERS AND A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
- STRONG GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED AREA-WIDE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
MONDAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS SUNDAY NIGHT.
- MUCH COLDER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT. WIND CHILLS NEAR ZERO
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS MONDAY NIGHT, AND
HIGHS IN THE 30S ON MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1225 AM EST SUN DEC 28 2025
CURRENTLY TEMPERATURES ARE REMAINING WARM FOR A LATE DECEMBER
NIGHT WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS REMAINING OUT OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST HELPING TO BRING
UP WARM AIR FROM THE GULF. THIS WILL ONLY STRENGTHEN AS WE HEAD INTO
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS SUNDAY WITH AN INCOMING STRONG COLD FRONT MAKING
IT'S WAY TOWARDS OUR REGION. AHEAD OF THE FRONT (EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING) THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
HELP KEEP WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE REGION SUNDAY ALONG WITH GUSTY
WINDS AREA-WIDE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR RECORDS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60'S TO LOWER
70'S. MOST LIKELY CLIMATE SITE TO BREAK THE DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURE
RECORD WILL ONCE AGAIN BE CHATTANOOGA, WHO BROKE THE DECEMBER 27
RECORD EARLIER THIS EVENING, WITH THEIR 73 DEGREE RECORD HIGH FOR
THE 28TH IN JEOPARDY.
DAILY RECORD HIGH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES:
DATE CHATTANOOGA KNOXVILLE TRI-CITIES OAK RIDGE
12-28 73(2015) 76(2015) 73(2021) 72(2021)
BESIDES THE WARM SPELL THE OTHER VERY NOTICEABLE WEATHER IMPACT WILL
BE THE GUSTY WINDS AREA-WIDE SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY. EXPECT TO
SEE WINDS RAMPING UP BETWEEN SUNSET AND MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
PEAK INTENSITY COMING DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. PROBABILISTIC
GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THAT MOST PLACES IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
VALLEY COULD SEE WIND GUSTS IN THE 30-35MPH RANGE OVERNIGHT, WITH
LOWER WIND SPEEDS EXPECTED IN NORTHEAST TN AND SOUTHWEST VA. IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS THESE WINDS WILL BE EVEN STRONGER WITH GUSTS OVER
40 MPH LOOKING TO BE COMMON ONCE YOU GET ABOVE 2,500 FEET IN
ELEVATION. WITH MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING AND IN FAIRLY
DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE STRENGTH OF THE GUSTS WILL ISSUE A WIND
ADVISORY FOR THE EASTERN TENNESSEE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY.
ONCE THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE BRIEF APPEARANCE OF SUMMER WILL
QUICKLY END AS WINTER ASSERTS IT'S DOMINANCE AGAIN. WIND CHILLS MAY
DROP BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS MONDAY NIGHT WITH
SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS IN THE VALLEY. A COLD AIRMASS WILL SETTLE
INTO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 30S.
OF LESSER IMPACTS WILL BE THE RAIN AND POSSIBLY LIGHT SNOW ALONG THE
FRONT WITH MOST PLACES IN THE VALLEY STAYING WARM ENOUGH THAT
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE FRONT SHOULD ONLY PRODUCE A TENTH TO A
QUARTER INCH OF LIGHT RAIN MONDAY. IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS MONDAY
WE COULD SEE SOME FLURRIES, AND POSSIBLY SOME ACCUMULATIONS IN THE
SHADED AREAS, BUT THESE SEEMS UNLIKELY AS THE RECENT TEMPERATURES
WOULD LIKELY MELT ANY SNOW ON CONTACT WITH THE SURFACE.
A SLOW MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY,
BUT WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AS A
LONGWAVE TROUGH PERSISTS OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST. FAIRLY QUIET
WEATHER ACCOMPANIES THIS SLOW WARM UP WITH THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION LIKELY COMING OVER THE WEEKEND WITH A POSSIBLE
SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING THROUGH THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 520 AM EST SUN DEC 28 2025
SOME PATCHES OF MVFR CIGS ARE STILL AROUND, AND MAY SEE AT LEAST
SOME BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AT THE TERMINALS EARLY IN THE PERIOD
ESPECIALLY AT CHA. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY FROM THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY AT TYS. SHOWERS
WILL MOVE IN LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH AT LEAST SOME BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN THE GUSTY WINDS, AND CHA WILL
SEE A WIND SHIFT TO NW NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 73 39 49 23 / 10 90 10 0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 73 37 47 23 / 10 90 20 0
OAK RIDGE, TN 71 35 45 22 / 10 90 20 0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 68 37 49 20 / 0 80 30 10
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR
BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-JOHNSON-SEVIER
SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST
MONROE-UNICOI.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...99
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