324
FXUS64 KMRX 112320
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
720 PM EDT WED MAR 11 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 715 PM EDT WED MAR 11 2026
- WARM AND BREEZY TODAY WITH NEAR RECORD TO RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES AREAWIDE.
- STORMS THIS EVENING...STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE,
ESPECIALLY NEAR THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU. A CONDITIONAL LOW-END
TORNADO THREAT WILL BE IN PLACE.
- COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS AREA-WIDE THURSDAY. THEN, ANOTHER
WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE IN BY LATE SUNDAY OR
SUNDAY NIGHT, FOLLOWED BY A SURGE OF SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 119 PM EDT WED MAR 11 2026
CURRENTLY ANOTHER WARM DAY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING STRONG FRONT
MOVING EAST NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WE'RE
GETTING STRONG RIDGING AND WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
HELPING TO DRIVE TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL. DEPENDING ON WHEN
THE FRONT ARRIVES WE COULD SEE NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES AGAIN
TODAY.
THESE WARM TEMPERATURES, IN ADDITION TO A STRENGTHENING LLJ ALONG
THE FRONT, WILL COMBINE TO BRING A THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING TO THE EASTERN TENNESSEE VALLEY. CURRENT
GUIDANCE IS INDICATING THAT THE LINE OF STORMS FROM THE WEST WILL
MOVE ONTO THE PLATEAU BETWEEN 4-7PM AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE
EVENING THEN WEAKENING AND/OR MOVING EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS BY AROUND
MIDNIGHT EDT. AREA WITH THE BEST ENVIRONMENT TO SEE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ALONG THE PLATEAU AND WESTWARD RIGHT AS THE
STORMS ARE MOVING IN THIS EVENING. CAMS ARE INDICATING WE'LL SEE A
GOOD AMOUNT OF SURFACE BASED CAPE RIGHT AT THE FRONT END OF THE
EVENT IF STORMS ARE ABLE TO MOVE IN A BIT QUICKER, POSSIBLY AROUND
1,000+ J/KG AT THE PEAK IN SOUTHEAST TN. THIS DOES NOT LAST MORE
THAN A COUPLE OF HOURS AS THE EVENING TURNS TO NIGHT AND WE
TRANSITION TO MORE ELEVATED INSTABILITY, AND AT THE SAME TIME IT
REALLY DROPS OFF. THIS COMBINED WITH A LLJ OF 40+ KNOTS WILL BE THE
MAIN DRIVING FACTORS BEHIND THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
STILL BELIEVE THE PRIMARY THREAT IS DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS OF
60+ MPH, PRIMARILY ALONG THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU AND WESTERN EDGE OF
THE VALLEY WHILE THERE IS STILL DAYLIGHT AND BEFORE THE INSTABILITY
DROPS OFF. IF STORMS ARE ABLE TO MAINTAIN THEIR STRENGTH/STRUCTURE
INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTION OF THE VALLEY THE LLJ WILL
STILL BE PRESENT AND THE WIND THREAT WILL PERSIST. WHILE THE THREAT
FOR TORNADOES IS VERY LOW, THE 30 KNOTS OF 0-1KM SHEAR, LOW LEVEL
CAPE BEING PRESENT (FOR A TIME), AND LCLS AROUND OR POSSIBLY BELOW
1KM INDICATE THAT THE THREAT IS PRESENT. MOST CAMS DO NOT INDICATE
NOTABLE UPDRAFT HELICITY IN THE EASTERN TENNESSEE VALLEY, BUT THE
ENVIRONMENT SUGGESTS THAT AN ISOLATED WEAK TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED
OUT... IF THE LINE OF STORMS IS ABLE TO MOVE IN FASTER THAN FORECAST
THE SEVERE THREAT INCREASES, BUT IF IT HOLDS UP EVEN JUST A COUPLE
OF HOURS SLOWER, THEN THE TORNADO THREAT (AND OVERALL SEVERE THREAT)
LOOKS TO DECREASE. WILL NEED TO BE AWARE OF THE WEATHER THIS EVENING
FOR SURE.
AFTER THE STORMS AND FRONT MOVES THROUGH WE'LL SEE A QUICK DROP IN
TEMPERATURES ON THE BACKSIDE, ENOUGH TO POSSIBLY PRODUCE A BRIEF
WINDOW OF SNOW, ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING BEFORE SUNRISE. WITH THE WARM SURFACE TEMPERATURES THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS AND THE DRY AIR MOVING IN QUICKLY BEHIND THE SYSTEM,
IT'S GOING TO BE HARD TO SEE ANY ACCUMULATIONS OUTSIDE OF THE PEAKS
OF THE MOUNTAINS AND RIDGE-LINES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT
BELOW NORMAL FOR A CHANGE, TOPPING OUT IN THE 50S IN MOST VALLEY
LOCATIONS.
TEMPERATURES QUICKLY WARM BACK UP FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS WE
SEE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW... BUT NOT FOR LONG AS A DEEP UPPER TROUGH
AND COLD FRONT MOVE INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT, BRINGING
ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SOME STORMS. THIS SYSTEM MAY
ALSO BRING HIGH WINDS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. THE SEVERE THREAT
REMAINS LOW AT THIS POINT BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH. DRIER AND
SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER AIR WILL PUSH IN BEHIND THIS FRONT FOR MONDAY
AND TUESDAY, WITH SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES AREA-WIDE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 119 PM EDT WED MAR 11 2026
LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS EVENING,
QUICKLY DROPPING FLIGHT CONDITIONS ONCE THE ONSET HITS. MEDIUM TO
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON THE TIMING, BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE ON THE EXACT
OBSERVATIONS ONCE IT MOVES THROUGH. EXPECT RAIN TO PERSIST FOR
HOURS AFTER THE INITIAL LINE, WITH LOWER FLIGHT CATEGORIES THROUGH
MOST OF THE NIGHT.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 715 PM EDT WED MAR 11 2026
SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING.
TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT CHA AND TYS THROUGH 03Z.
MVFR CEILINGS AND VIS ARE THEN EXPECTED AT ALL SITES LATER
TONIGHT, FOLLOWED BY IFR AT TYS AND TRI. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN AT ALL SITES BY LATE TOMORROW MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON.
GUSTY WINDS TO AROUND 20KTS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE
PERIOD, WINDS WILL TRANSITION FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHERLY THROUGH
THE PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 42 57 37 66 / 100 20 0 0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 39 53 34 64 / 100 30 0 0
OAK RIDGE, TN 39 54 34 63 / 100 10 0 0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 36 49 29 61 / 100 50 0 0
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...99
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