675
FXUS64 KMRX 300522
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
122 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 124 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2026
- DRY WEATHER WITH MORE MODERATE TEMPS AND HUMIDITY THROUGH FRIDAY.
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN FOR THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
- A LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THIS WEEKEND, BUT
DETAILS STILL UNCERTAIN.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 124 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE TO
EXTEND INTO OUR AREA THROUGH FRIDAY AS IT SLIDES SLOWLY EAST. THE
POST FRONTAL AIRMASS OVER OUR AREA WILL PROVIDE A MILD AND SUNNY DAY
THURSDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY A BIT BELOW NORMAL AND A
NOTICEABLE ABSENCE OF THE HUMID STICKINESS THAT WAS AROUND EARLIER
IN THE WEEK. FRIDAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY AS WELL, WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS.
FOR THE WEEKEND, SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINGS AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AS AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND TROUGH DROP FROM OUT OF THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS INTO OUR AREA. THE INCREASE IN
MOISTURE COMBINED WITH THE INCOMING TROUGH/LOW PRESSURE AND A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LEAD TO CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
RETURNING TO THE AREA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE DETAILS ARE STILL
NOT CLEAR, BUT WHILE THE LREF ENSEMBLE DATA CURRENTLY SUGGESTS THE
JOINT PROBABILITY OF AT LEAST 500 J/KG OF CAPE AND 25 KTS OF BULK
SHEAR ARE VERY LOW (AROUND 10%), THERE IS CERTAINLY POTENTIAL IN
THIS PATTERN FOR A PERIOD FAVORABLE FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
SINCE AT LEAST MARGINAL SHEAR WILL LIKELY BE PRESENT, WITH THE MOST
LIKELY TIME FRAME FOR ANY SEVERE THREAT BEING SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT. HOWEVER, WHETHER OR NOT THIS THREAT MATERIALIZES WILL DEPEND
ON DETAILS, INCLUDING THE TIMING OF BEST FORCING AND AVAILABLE CAPE,
THAT ARE STILL UNKNOWN. LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN
ANY LOCATIONS THAT SEE REPEATED OR PROLONGED PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN
DURING THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BEAR CLOSE WATCHING AS WE GET CLOSER.
THERE ARE MODEL DIFFERENCES FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK WITH
SOME MODELS SHOWING THE UPPER TROUGH CUTTING OFF SOMEWHERE OVER OUR
REGION AND GRADUALLY WEAKENING. IF IT DOES, THEN CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED INTO NEXT WEEK AS THIS UPPER
LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SPINS ACROSS THE REGION WITH NO WHERE TO GO
BEFORE IT EVENTUALLY DISSIPATES.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 124 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2026
LOW CONFIDENCE IN FOG FORMING AT KTRI FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE
SUNRISE WITH THE LOWER DEW POINTS. OUTSIDE OF BRIEF FOG AT KTRI
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 88 66 91 70 / 0 0 0 30
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 84 63 88 68 / 0 0 0 10
OAK RIDGE, TN 84 62 87 67 / 0 0 0 10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 80 57 83 64 / 0 0 0 0
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...99
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