370
FXUS64 KMRX 070538
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1238 AM EST WED JAN 7 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1222 AM EST WED JAN 7 2026
- DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
- A STRONG SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING POTENTIAL FOR MOUNTAIN WAVES OFF AND ON
THURSDAY NIGHT UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING.
- MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL COULD ALSO LEAD TO ISOLATED
FLOODING FRIDAY UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING.
- SEASONALLY COLDER WEATHER WILL RETURN BY SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1222 AM EST WED JAN 7 2026
CURRENTLY, TROUGHING IS CENTERED JUST TO OUR EAST WITH A SURFACE LOW
EXITING OUT OF THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. DURING THE DAY TODAY, HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN WITH RIDGING ALSO LEADING TO WARMER AND
DRIER CONDITIONS. ON THURSDAY, RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS
THE REGION BUT WITH FOCUS TURNING TO OUR WEST. A NEGATIVELY TILTED
SHORTWAVE WILL EJECT OUT OF THE ROCKIES WITH A DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING AND TRACKING TOWARDS THE CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BECOME AN OPEN WAVE WITH A BROAD LOW-
LEVEL JET OF 60 TO EVEN 70 KTS AND A TIGHT MSLP GRADIENT. THIS WILL
LEAD TO STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AND BROAD MOISTURE ADVECTION. BASED ON
THE OVERALL TIMING OF ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT, THE GREATER THREAT FOR
SEVERE CONVECTION STILL REMAINS WELL TO OUR WEST. HOWEVER, THE
OVERALL TRACK, MSLP GRADIENT, AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET
CERTAINLY RAISE CONFIDENCE FOR MOUNTAIN WAVE HIGH WINDS THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WHILE INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY REMAIN TO OUR WEST,
THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET COULD LEAD TO SHOWERS OR ISOLATED
STORMS BRINGING WINDS DOWN TO THE SURFACE. ANOTHER INCREASING
CONCERN WITH THIS SYSTEM IS THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. THE AREA
CERTAINLY NEEDS RAINFALL, FOLLOWING THIS DECEMBER BEING THE DRIEST
SINCE 2010 FOR KNOXVILLE AND CHATTANOOGA AREAS. BUT THE PWAT
ANOMALIES PER THE NAEFS TABLE WILL BE AT THE 90TH PERCENTILE. PLUS,
THERE ARE INDICATIONS OF A SECONDARY LOW POSSIBLY DEVELOPING ON
SATURDAY, WHICH COULD LEAD TO EVEN MORE ROUNDS OF RAINFALL. BASED ON
THESE CONSIDERATIONS, ADDITIONAL MESSAGING FOR THE THREAT OF HEAVY
RAINFALL AND ISOLATED FLOODING WILL BE INITIATED. ALSO, THIS
SECONDARY LOW WILL PROLONG THE MOUNTAIN WAVE THREAT AS WELL.
BEHIND THE FRONT, MUCH COLDER AIR WILL ARRIVE BY SUNDAY WITH THE
LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTING ADDITIONAL WRAPAROUND MOISTURE. THIS WILL
LEAD TO CHANCES FOR LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ARRIVE BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WITH SUBSIDENCE PROMOTING LOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP WELL INTO
THE 20S AREA-WIDE. HEIGHT RISES WILL ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY MILDER
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY BUT WITH DRY WEATHER REMAINING.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1222 AM EST WED JAN 7 2026
MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MID MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS
INCREASING ON FOG DEVELOPMENT NEAR CHA WITH IFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THERE. FOG CHANCES ARE LOWER NEAR TYS AND TRI. WINDS WILL
BE DECREASING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 68 47 69 60 / 0 0 0 30
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 65 41 69 57 / 0 0 0 20
OAK RIDGE, TN 65 42 67 57 / 0 0 0 20
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 62 36 65 52 / 0 0 0 10
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION...MCD
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