254
FXUS64 KMRX 032347
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
747 PM EDT SUN MAY 3 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 740 PM EDT SUN MAY 3 2026
- TEMPERATURES 5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER TONIGHT. NO FROST OR FREEZE
PRODUCTS EXPECTED.
- SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN TOMORROW MORNING ACROSS SOUTHWEST VA AND
SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER IN AFTERNOON.
- WARMING TREND THIS WEEK.
- CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 305 PM EDT SUN MAY 3 2026
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER TONIGHT ACROSS
THE AREA. THEREFORE, NO FROST/FREEZE PRODUCTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
ISSUED. HOWEVER, THERE IS A LOW-END CHANCE THAT A FEW SHELTERED
VALLEY LOCATIONS ACROSS THE EAST TN MOUNTAINS, NORTHEAST TN AND
SOUTHWEST VA MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FROST.
NBM STILL SHOWING SOME SLIGHT CHANCE AND LOW-END CHANCE POPS ACROSS
SOUTHWEST VA FOR TOMORROW MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. THIS IS
DUE TO A WEAK IMPULSE TRAVERSING MEAN FLOW ALOFT. BASED ON LATEST
DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND CAMS, NBM POPS SEEM REASONABLE SO WILL
LEAVE THEM BE. ANY MORNING ACTIVITY THAT OCCURS WILL BE RAIN. THEN,
SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER WITH ANY AFTERNOON ACTIVITY.
BEST CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD RAIN, AND SOME STORMS, OCCURS LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT AND EMERGING SHORTWAVE FROM OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS
STATES. THERE ARE SEVERAL THINGS WE ARE WATCHING WITH THIS SYSTEM.
WINDS: A PROLONGED PERIOD OF BREEZY/GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE EAST TN MOUNTAINS IN RESPONSE TO AN INCREASE IN THE LLJ. FROM
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, EXPECT MOUNTAIN WINDS TO BE BREEZY AT
TIMES. THE HIGHEST PEAKS MAY SEE ON AND OFF GUSTS BETWEEN 30 AND
40 MPH.
PRECIP: NBM PRECIP PROBS HAVEN'T CHANGED TOO MUCH SINCE THE LAST
CYCLE. THEY GENERALLY SHOW 60 TO 80% PROBS OF SEEING AT LEAST 1" OR
GREATER AMOUNTS FOR THIS EVENT. THE 2" PROBS BETWEEN KNOXVILLE AND
CHATTANOOGA ARE AROUND 40/50%. HOWEVER, THERE ARE MUCH LOWER PROBS,
AROUND 20%, ACROSS NORTHEAST TN AND SOUTHWEST VA TO SEE 2" OR
GREATER.
STORMS: LREF JOINT PROBABILITIES OF MUCAPE > 500 J/KG AND BULK SHEAR
> 40KTS ARE SIMILAR THIS RUN AS WELL. THESE PROBABILITIES
GENERALLY RANGE BETWEEN 40-60% ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40.
THE CURRENT DAY 4 SPC OUTLOOK HIGHLIGHTS AREAS JUST TO OUR
SOUTHWEST. IT'S NOT UNREASONABLE THAT WE COULD AT LEAST SEE A
MARGINAL RISK IN PLACE ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-40 ON THE NEXT UPDATE,
NEW DAY 3. WHILE CAPE CONTINUES TO BE A LIMITING FACTOR IN THE
OVERALL SEVERE THREAT, WIND SHEAR WILL BE PLENTY. BIGGEST CONCERN
AS OF NOW CONTINUES TO BE LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS
WITH ANY STRONGER STORMS.
COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS END THE WEEK POST FROPA, WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER QUICK SHOT OF LIGHT RAIN NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 740 PM EDT SUN MAY 3 2026
VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVER NIGHT,
WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS BETWEEN 10-15KTS EXPECTED TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. POTENTIAL SHOWERS IN VICINITY OF TRI FOR A BRIEF PERIOD
TOMORROW MORNING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 46 80 55 80 / 0 0 0 10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 46 78 55 79 / 0 0 0 10
OAK RIDGE, TN 43 79 54 78 / 0 0 0 20
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 39 76 49 78 / 10 10 0 10
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...KRS
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