819
FXUS64 KMRX 100555
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
155 AM EDT TUE MAR 10 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 150 AM EDT TUE MAR 10 2026
- ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVE IN BEFORE SUNRISE, NO SEVERE
WEATHER ANTICIPATED.
- A WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH NEAR RECORD
HIGH TEMPERATURES AGAIN. BREEZY CONDITIONS AREAWIDE.
- CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURN WEDNESDAY EVENING. SOME STORMS
COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE CUMBERLAND
PLATEAU.
- LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ON THURSDAY MORNING,
FOLLOWED BY COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS AREA-WIDE. THEN,
ANOTHER WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 150 AM EDT TUE MAR 10 2026
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVE INTO THE AREA BEFORE SUNRISE.
THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH A VERY WEAK DISTURBANCE WITHIN
MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW. THE BEST COVERAGE WILL OCCUR THROUGH MID TO LATE
MORNING, THEN SHOWERS AND STORMS BECOME MORE ISOLATED THROUGH THE
REST OF THE DAY AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS
ANTICIPATED WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
ON WEDNESDAY, A ROBUST LOW‑LEVEL JET AND AN EXPANSIVE WARM SECTOR
WILL EXTEND ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.S. AHEAD OF AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH AND COLD FRONT. THIS SETUP CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THE BROAD
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL HIGHLIGHTED IN RECENT OUTLOOKS. BREEZY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH MOST AREAS SEEING WINDS
GUST FROM 20 TO 30 MPH. THE HIGHEST RIDGETOPS ACROSS THE EAST TN
MOUNTAINS WILL SEE WINDS GUST FROM 30 TO 40 MPH.
MOST MODELS STILL SHOW A QLCS SWEEPING THROUGH THE REGION SOMETIME
BETWEEN WEDNESDAY EVENING AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. BECAUSE OF THE
TIMING, THIS WILL HELP TO DAMPEN OUR OVERALL SEVERE THREAT AS
INSTABILITY WILL BE ON THE WEAKER SIDE, AND MOST LIKELY ELEVATED.
ELEVATED, NON-SURFACE BASED, INSTABILITY MEANS NO TORNADO RISK.
HOWEVER, IF WE DO MAINTAIN SOME SURFACED-BASED INSTABILITY, THEN
THERE WILL BE A LOW RISK FOR AN ISOLATED, BRIEF, TORNADO. THIS IS
DUE TO THE MODERATE TO STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT THAT WILL BE IN
PLACE. AS OF NOW, THE MAIN THREAT APPEARS TO BE DAMAGING WINDS AS
ANY STRONGER STORM COULD BRING HIGHER WINDS DOWN TO THE SURFACE. IF
WE DO SEE ANY STRONGER STORMS, AREAS WEST OF I-75 WILL HAVE THE
BETTER CHANCES DUE TO EARLIER ARRIVAL TIME.
WE CLEAR OUT THURSDAY AFTERNOON BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO UPPER 50S, BUT
THIS IS ONLY AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. IT WILL FEEL MUCH COLDER
THOUGH DUE TO OUR RECENT WARM SPELL. BEFORE PRECIP EXITS, WE COULD
STILL SEE A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS THE
EAST TN AND SOUTHWEST VA MOUNTAINS. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED ALONG WITH NO IMPACTS.
WE SEE A NICE REBOUND IN TEMPS ON FRIDAY DUE TO SOUTHERLY RETURN
FLOW, TEMPS WILL BE BACK ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO UPPER
60S. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPS
CLIMBING BACK INTO THE 70S. THEN, ANOTHER DEEP TROUGH LOOKS TO
APPROACH LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, BRINING MORE WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL TO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN DROP BACK DOWN TO
AROUND NORMAL BEHIND THIS NEXT COLD FRONT.
DAILY RECORD HIGH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
DATE CHATTANOOGA KNOXVILLE TRI-CITIES OAK RIDGE
03-10 81(2009) 81(2016) 82(2016) 81(2016)
03-11 81(2006) 81(2006) 78(2006) 80(1990)
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 150 AM EDT TUE MAR 10 2026
A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS APPEAR LIKELY IN A FEW HOURS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF EAST TENNESSEE. THUNDER IS POSSIBLE, BUT
NOT CONFIDENT ON WHERE AND HOW MUCH TO INCLUDE EXPLICITLY IN THE
TAFS. ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH LATER THIS MORNING. IFR IS
POSSIBLE AT KCHA THIS MORNING, AS HIGH CLOUDS DEPART AND LOW
CLOUDS FORM IN THE WAKE OF EARLIER RAIN. CIGS SHOULD BE IMPROVING
INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 78 64 81 46 / 60 20 20 100
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 77 64 81 44 / 50 30 20 100
OAK RIDGE, TN 75 64 80 43 / 50 30 30 100
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 75 59 79 42 / 40 20 30 90
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...WELLINGTON
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