241
FXUS64 KMRX 230023
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
823 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 752 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2026
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, A FEW OF WHICH MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. PRIMARY
CONCERNS ARE LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS, STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS,
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW BRIEF AND WEAK TORNADOES.
- GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF THE EAST TENNESSEE MOUNTAINS
AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS TONIGHT.
- DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS EXIST EACH DAY THOUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 230 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2026
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CONSISTS OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CONUS AND RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST. AN IMPULSE IS
CURRENTLY TRAVERSING MEAN FLOW ATOP THE NORTHERN GULF STATES AND
INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. A SFC WARM FRONT IS ALSO DRAPED THROUGH
THE EASTERN TN VALLEY AND WRAPPING BACK WESTWARD TOWARD MEMPHIS,
WHERE AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS DEVELOPING. THIS PATTERN
HAS CONTINUED TO PROMOTE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE
REGION. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE FOR OUR COUNTY
WARNING AREA AS THE UPPER SHORTWAVE TRANSLATES ACROSS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
LATEST RAP AND HRRR SOUNDINGS DEPICT AROUND 500 TO 1000 J/KG MLCAPE
AS A SOUTHWESTERLY LLJ NEAR 40KTS PROMOTES EFFECTIVE SHEAR NEAR 25-
30KTS. OVERALL, THIS SETUP IS CONDUCIVE FOR THE POTENTIAL OF A FEW
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT, HOWEVER,
SFC-1KM SHEAR BETWEEN 15 TO 20KTS AND 0-3KM CAPE AROUND 150-180J/KG
MEAN THAT A FEW WEAK AND BRIEF TORNADOS ARE ALSO IN THE REALM OF
POSSIBILITY... ESPECIALLY IF ANY SEMI-DISCRETE CELLS CAN DEVELOP.
ISOLATED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING COULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE AS A FEW
LOCATIONS HAVE HAD ENOUGH RAINFALL IN THE SHORT-TERM THAT 1HR FFG
HAS FALLEN TO 1.3-1.5 INCHES, BUT OVERALL NOT STRONG ENOUGH OF A
THREAT TO WARRANT ANY SORT OF WATCH. THESE THREATS WILL EXIST
THROUGH ABOUT 10PM THIS EVENING.
WHILE WE MAY NOT STAY COMPLETELY DRY, THE FOCUS DURING THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD WILL TRANSITION TO STRONG GUSTY WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
ADJACENT FOOTHILLS AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET SWINGS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS. HAVE DECIDED TO HOIST A WIND ADVISORY FROM BLOUNT
THROUGH UNICOI AS HREF PROBABILITIES OF WIND GUSTS GTE TO 40MPH HAVE
INCREASED TO AROUND 50-70%.
SOME ADDITIONAL SCATTERED ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AS WEAK IMPULSES
CONTINUE TO TRAVERSE MEAN FLOW SATURDAY, HOWEVER, SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY PROFILES WILL BE EVEN LESS FAVORABLE FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS. ULTIMATELY, THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF
THE PERIOD AS DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY. TIMING AND STRENGTH OF CONVECTION IS VERY
UNCERTAIN AS IT WILL DEPENDED ON HOW EXACTLY THE SMALL DISTURBANCES
EVOLVE WITH TIME.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 752 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2026
STRONGEST OF THE ACTIVITY WANING AT THE TERMINALS, FOR NOW, EXCEPT
SHOWERS EXITING NORTH AND WEST OF TYS. WHILE THINGS TEMPORARILY
CALM DOWN AT THE SFC OVERNIGHT, A LLJ WILL INCREASE, POTENTIALLY
BRINGING THE THREAT OF LLWS TO CHA AND TYS. KEPT WHAT WAS
INHERITED. SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY ONCE AGAIN PICKS UP TOMORROW
AFTERNOON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 65 81 64 83 / 80 80 60 80
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 65 80 63 83 / 90 80 70 80
OAK RIDGE, TN 63 79 61 83 / 90 80 70 80
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 61 80 60 83 / 80 100 60 80
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-
COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST
GREENE-UNICOI.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KRS
AVIATION...KS
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