304
FXUS64 KMRX 291130
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
630 AM EST MON DEC 29 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 623 AM EST MON DEC 29 2025
- SHOWERS AND A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
- STRONG GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
VALLEY AND INTO THE AFTERNOON IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
- MUCH COLDER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT. WIND CHILLS NEAR ZERO
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS MONDAY NIGHT, AND
HIGHS IN THE 30S ON TUESDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 215 AM EST MON DEC 29 2025
EXTENDED THE WIND ADVISORY TO NORTHEAST TENNESSEE AND CENTRAL
TENNESSEE VALLEY AND EXTENDED UNTIL 4 PM. GIVEN THE LATEST
OBSERVATIONS AND REFS SHOWING WINDS REMAINING WINDY THROUGH MUCH
OF THE DAY DECIDED TO MAKE THE CHANGES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1228 AM EST MON DEC 29 2025
CURRENTLY A STRONG COLD FRONT CHARGING THROUGH THE REGION BRINING
WITH IT A QUICK ROUND OF SHOWERS AND ENHANCED WIND GUSTS RIGHT ALONG
THE FRONT EDGE. WINDS HAVE ALREADY BEEN GUSTY THIS EVENING AND WHILE
THIS LINE OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES THROUGH
MIDDLE TENNESSEE IT STILL COULD CAUSE SOME ENHANCEMENT OF THE LOWER
ATMOSPHERIC WINDS DIVING TOWARDS THE SURFACE. THERE IS NO LIGHTNING
IN THIS LINE, BUT WE COULD DEFINITELY SEE SOME ADDITIONAL OUTDOOR
FURNITURE BLOWN AROUND. QPF AMOUNTS STILL ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT
WITH THE LINE ALSO EXPECTED TO WAKEN
STILL HAVE A WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT OVERNIGHT FOR THE
PLATEAU, SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA, AND THE EASTERN TENNESSEE MOUNTAINS
WITH THE COMMON DENOMINATOR BEING THESE COUNTIES HAVE SOME OF THE
HIGHER ELEVATION IN THE REGION AND ARE REPORTING THE HIGHEST WIND
GUSTS. ALL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ARE INDICATING THAT THE WIND
ADVISORY IS WORKING OUT WELL, WITH NO CURRENT PLANS TO UPGRADE TO A
HIGH WIND WARNING.
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE EVEN AFTER SUNRISE WITH GUSTS SLOWLY
STARTING TO COME DOWN THROUGHOUT THE DAY. EXPECT WINDS TO BACK OFF
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA IN THE PLATEAU AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA IN THE
LATE MORNING HOURS, BUT CONTINUE IN THE EASTERN TENNESSEE MOUNTAINS
UNTIL CLOSER TO SUNSET.
ALSO OF NOTE WILL BE THE MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT,
WITH LOWS IN THE MORNING LIKELY DROPPING INTO THE 30'S, AND BELOW
FREEZING AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2,000 FEET. COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE
WEEK CONTINUE FOR A FEW DAYS AS CHILLY AIR FUNNELS IN FROM THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. WITH LOWS IN THE 20S
AND TEENS FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN FORECAST AND SOME WINDS PERSISTING
FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS WELL, WIND CHILLS NEAR 0 WILL BE POSSIBLE.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND 10 DEGREES OR SO FROM TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. A WEAK SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY, BRINGING A CHANCE OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION, WITH BEST CHANCES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. BY NEXT WEEKEND,
PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AS THE FRONT STALLS TO
OUR SOUTH. WHERE THIS SETS UP MAY DETERMINE HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION
WE SEE. THE SOUTHERN VALLEY AND SW NC COULD SURE USE SOME BENEFICIAL
RAIN TO REMOVE SOME OF THE MODERATE DROUGHT.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 623 AM EST MON DEC 29 2025
A BAND OF SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE TAF SITES WILL END BY AROUND
14Z. VFR TO MARGINAL MVFR WILL IMPROVE TO ALL VFR BY MID-MORNING
WITH DRIER AIR CLEARING THE SKY COVER TODAY. MAIN CONCERN WILL
REMAIN WINDY CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY AT TRI AND TYS. WEST TO
NORTHWEST OF 15 TO 25KTS WITH GUSTS NEAR 30KTS.
WINDS WILL SUBSIDE BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. REFS SHOWS
BROKEN CEILING AROUND 4KFT AT TRI AGAIN BY AROUND 00Z TUESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 47 24 40 24 / 20 0 0 0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 45 22 37 23 / 50 0 0 0
OAK RIDGE, TN 42 22 37 22 / 50 0 0 0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 46 19 33 20 / 60 0 0 0
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST /3 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR
ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-
HANCOCK-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MARION-MORGAN-NORTH
SEVIER-NORTHWEST BLOUNT-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-
NORTHWEST GREENE-ROANE-SCOTT TN-SEQUATCHIE-SULLIVAN-UNION-
WASHINGTON TN.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR BLOUNT SMOKY
MOUNTAINS-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-JOHNSON-SEVIER SMOKY
MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST
MONROE-UNICOI.
VA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LEE-RUSSELL-
SCOTT VA-WASHINGTON VA-WISE.
DISCUSSION...DH
AVIATION...DH
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