970
FXUS64 KMRX 262311
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
711 PM EDT FRI JUN 26 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 709 PM EDT FRI JUN 26 2026
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE LIKELY SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY,
WITH A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE. ISOLATED FLOODING
ISSUES ARE PROBABLE WHEREVER TRAINING OCCURS.
- HOT TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 90S ARE LIKELY NEXT WEEK. HEAT
INDICES MAY CLIMB ABOVE 100 DEGREES IN THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
ESPECIALLY BY MID WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 244 PM EDT FRI JUN 26 2026
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE SLOWLY SAGGING SOUTH AND INTO OUR AREA
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. IN ADDITION, A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS
DURING THIS SAME TIMEFRAME. THIS WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT LIFT FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. DUE
TO MODERATE INSTABILITY AND A LOW/MODERATELY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT,
A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. WE ARE CURRENTLY IN A
MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS IN THE SPC DAY 2 OUTLOOK. ISOLATED
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE THE MAIN CONCERN.
IN ADDITION, HIGH PWS (VALUES APPROACHING 2 INCHES) WILL BE IN
PLACE, WHICH MEANS LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITH SOME OF
THE STRONGER STORMS. BROAD ZONAL FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH. WITH THE ZONAL FLOW
RUNNING PARALLEL TO THE INCOMING FRONTAL BOUNDARY, TRAINING OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED. THIS TRAINING WILL INCREASE THE
LIKELIHOOD OF ISOLATED FLOODING. IT'S HARD TO PINPOINT WHERE THE
TRAINING WILL OCCUR BUT THE CAMS/ENSEMBLES HAVE BEEN SHOWING A
HEAVY RAIN AXIS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES DURING THE SAT/SUN TIMEFRAME. A
FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED FOR SOME PORTIONS OF OUR AREA BUT AM
NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH YET ON WHERE TO ISSUE IT AT THIS POINT.
HOPEFULLY THE CAMS WILL COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON PLACEMENT
OF THIS HEAVY RAIN AXIS OVER THE NEXT FEW CYCLES.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE HOT AND MOSTLY DRY AS A STRONG RIDGE
STAYS ANCHORED OVER THE EASTERN U.S. MONDAY AND TUESDAY HIGHS WILL
BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S IN THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY WILL BE EVEN HOTTER WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S.
HEAT INDEX NEAR 100 WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
TENNESSEE VALLEY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HEAT INDEX WILL BE CLIMBING
INTO THE 100 TO 105 RANGE ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 709 PM EDT FRI JUN 26 2026
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING, BUT MOST OF THE
AREA IS EXPECTED TO STAY DRY WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND
LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS CONTINUING. DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY,
SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH GUSTS NEAR 20
KTS POSSIBLE AT TYS AND TRI BY THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL BE A LOT MORE WIDESPREAD THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WITHIN ANY STORM, MVFR OR LESS IS POSSIBLE, ALONG WITH
STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN. COVERAGE WILL BE BEST AROUND TYS AND
TRI.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 73 90 73 92 / 10 60 40 50
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 73 87 71 88 / 20 80 90 70
OAK RIDGE, TN 71 86 70 89 / 30 80 80 70
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 68 84 68 86 / 30 70 90 80
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...BW
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