467
FXUS64 KMRX 062353
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
753 PM EDT WED MAY 6 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 740 PM EDT WED MAY 6 2026
- WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH TONIGHT.
- A CONDITIONAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT EXISTS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING NEAR THE TN/GA BORDER. OVERALL THE ODDS ARE LOW, BUT THE
RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS OR EVEN A TORNADO AREN'T ZERO.
- HEAVY RAINS AND AN ISOLATED RISK OF FLOODING COULD OCCUR IN THE
FAR SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS WELL. BUT AGAIN, LIKE
THE SEVERE RISK, THE OVERALL ODDS ARE LOW.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 140 PM EDT WED MAY 6 2026
AN UPPER JET WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE OZARKS AND OHIO VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING ENE OVERTOP A
COLD FRONT SITUATED FROM KENTUCKY, SOUTHWEST OVER MIDDLE TENNESSEE
AND NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI. REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOW THE CWA IN A
LULL BETWEEN MORNING CONVECTION AND ADDITIONAL STORMS TO OUR WEST,
WITH VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING SOME SUN BREAKS AND THINNING
OF CLOUD COVER ACROSS EAST TENNESSEE AS WELL. AND TEMPERATURES ARE
RESPONDING IN KIND, WITH A NEARLY 10 DEGREE INCREASE IN SURFACE
TEMPS AT CHATTANOOGA THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS. ALL OF THIS TO SAY
THAT MODEL FORECASTS SHOWING SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES CLIMBING INTO
THE 500-1,000 J/KG RANGE LATER THIS AFTERNOON IN THE SOUTH SEEM
VERY REASONABLE, AND WITH THE SHEAR (UPWARDS OF 50KT EFFECTIVE
BULK SHEAR), THE CONDITIONAL THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS REMAINS IN
PLACE THERE. FURTHER NORTH I THINK THE ODDS ARE QUITE LOW.
THE SOUTHERN SEVERE THREAT IS NOT WITHOUT UNCERTAINTY THOUGH.
CURRENT REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY MATCHES THE 12Z NAM NEST FAIRLY
WELL FOR THIS HOUR. THIS MODEL SHOWS THIS CLUSTER OF STORMS OVER
THE WFO HUNTSVILLE FORECAST AREA MOVING EAST ALONG THE TN/GA
BORDER OVER THE COMING FEW HOURS, FOLLOWED BY ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THOSE SAME GENERAL
AREAS. THE QUESTIONS I HAVE ARE, DOES THIS ACTIVITY BECOME SEVERE
AS IT MOVES THROUGH OUR FAR SOUTHERN AREAS HERE SHORTLY...DOES
THIS ACTIVITY CLEAR TO THE EAST QUICK ENOUGH THAT WE CAN REGAIN
SOME SURFACE INSTABILITY LATER ON...OR FINALLY, DOES IT
EFFECTIVELY STABILIZE THE FAR SOUTHERN AREAS HEADING INTO THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IF THE LATTER, THEN OUR SEVERE THREAT IS
QUITE LOW, IF IT EXISTS AT ALL. THE OTHER TWO SCENARIOS ARE LESS
CLEAR. IT WOULD SEEM REASONABLE TO ASSUME THAT THE THERMAL
PROFILES ALONG THE TN/GA BORDER SHOW GREATER INSTABILITY AND AN
ENVIRONMENT THAT WOULD SUPPORT STRONGER WIND GUSTS MAKING IT TO
THE SURFACE. AS FOR THE TORNADO THREAT RIGHT NOW, IT SEEMS LOW AS
THE VAD WIND PROFILE OFF HUN'S RADAR DOESN'T SHOW FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS. THAT LIKELY DOESN'T CHANGE IN THE NEAR TERM IN THE
SOUTHERN TN VALLEY EITHER. LATER THIS AFTERNOON, FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW SLIGHTLY BETTER CONDITIONS BUT THERE'S STILL
UNCERTAINTY. THE THREAT SEEMS TO BE CONFINED ALONG OR JUST SOUTH
OF THE TN/GA BORDER. FURTHER NORTH PERHAPS SOME DAMAGING WINDS
COULD OCCUR BUT CAM GUIDANCE DOESN'T SHOW MUCH IN THE WAY OF
STRONGER ACTIVITY SO THE THOUGHT IS THAT SEVERE CHANCES ARE
LIMITED TO THE SOUTH.
AS FAR AS CHANCES FOR FLOODING PROBLEMS, MOST GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED
THE HEAVIEST RAIN SOUTH OF OUR AREA. IT'S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION WE
COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED FLOODING ISSUES DUE TO TRAINING STORMS,
ESPECIALLY FROM THE FAR SOUTHERN TN VALLEY EASTWARD INTO OUR NC
COUNTIES WHERE QPF IS FORECAST TO BE HIGHEST. BUT OVERALL IT SEEMS
THE THREAT IS LESS THAN THE LAST FEW DAYS.
THE COLD FRONT BEHIND ALL OF THIS WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT. RAINFALL SHOULD LARGELY BE WRAPPING UP BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z,
BUT THE UPPER JET DOESN'T PULL OFF TO THE EAST UNTIL THU AFTERNOON
SO I WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME SHOWERS LINGERING IN MAINLY
THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH MIDDAY OR EARLY AFTERNOON AS WE TRANSITION TO
A NW FLOW REGION JUST OFF THE SURFACE.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT THEN BRINGS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY, BUT RAIN CHANCES ARE QUESTIONABLE WITH THAT PERIOD AS
WE'RE BENEATH CONFLUENT UPPER JET ENERGY. CURRENT NBM GUIDANCE
DOESN'T HAVE MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAIN CHANCES AND I'M INCLINED TO
THINK THAT'S REASONABLE FOR NOW. BUT SOME GUIDANCE DOES BRING SOME
QUICK HITTING RAIN TO THE AREA EARLY SAT MORNING. BETTER RAIN
CHANCES EXIST LATER IN THE WEEKEND AS A SYNOPTIC SCALE TROUGH WORKS
THROUGH THE EASTERN CONUS.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 740 PM EDT WED MAY 6 2026
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY PASSING THROUGH THE AREA IS BRINGING LIGHT TO
MOD RAIN TO ALL TERMINALS. CHA STILL EXHIBITS THE BEST CHANCE OF
A TS OR VCTS, AS NORTH TOWARDS TYS HAS BECOME STABLE. IFR TO MVFR
CIG/VSBY WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH LIGHT RAIN
LINGERING. MVFR CIG MAY PERSIST A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER RAIN
ENDING. LATTER HALF OF TAF, SITES RETURN TO VFR. WINDS TURN
NORTHERLY FOLLOWING THE FRONT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 57 72 47 74 / 100 10 0 0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 54 69 44 72 / 90 20 0 0
OAK RIDGE, TN 53 70 43 72 / 90 10 0 0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 52 65 40 69 / 90 40 0 0
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CD
AVIATION...KS
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