927
FXUS64 KMRX 070604
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
104 AM EST SAT MAR 7 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 103 AM EST SAT MAR 7 2026
- A LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. ISOLATED
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN AREAS.
- OFF AND ON CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE SUNDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH WEDNESDAY EVENING HAVING THE BEST CHANCE
FOR STORMS.
- NEAR RECORD HEAT IS LIKELY SATURDAY AND THEN MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 103 AM EST SAT MAR 7 2026
CURRENTLY, TROUGHING AND A DOWNSTREAM JET IS WELL TO OUR NORTHWEST
WITH A SURFACE LOW MOVING INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
THIS SYSTEM IS AN OPEN WAVE WITH ITS WARM FRONT ALONG THE GREAT
LAKES AND COLD FRONT EXTENDING INTO THE GREAT PLAINS. INITIALLY, THE
REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF BROAD RIDGING AND
SOUTHERLY FLOW THAT WILL PROMOTE A CONTINUATION OF RECORD HEAT
DURING THE DAY TODAY:
DAILY RECORD HIGH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
DATE CHATTANOOGA KNOXVILLE TRI-CITIES OAK RIDGE
03-07 82(2000) 80(1983) 79(1956) 80(1956)
WITH INITIALLY DRIER AIR, MUCH OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH
THE MORNING AND INTO PART OF THE AFTERNOON. THE 850MB JET, WHILE NOT
AS STRONG AS TO OUR NORTH, WILL STILL BE IN EXCESS OF 30 KTS AND
PRODUCE A BREEZY DAY AREA-WIDE. WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH OR GREATER WILL
BE COMMON BUT STILL LIKELY BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. BY LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON, MOISTURE WILL ADVECT FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS THE FRONT
MOVES INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. WHILE FLOW WILL BE FAIRLY
UNIDIRECTIONAL, THE ENVIRONMENT WILL STILL CONSIST OF EFFECTIVE
SHEAR REACHING TO 35 KTS AND SBCAPE EXCEEDING 1,000 J/KG. LOW-LEVEL
SHEAR, DRIVEN MOSTLY BY SPEED, WILL ALSO REACH 20 KTS OR GREATER.
THE LATEST CAMS SHOW A QLCS ARRIVING TO THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU BY
ABOUT 5 PM EST AND THEN MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA
WITHIN 2 HOURS BEFORE EXITING LATER IN THE EVENING. THIS TIMING WILL
LEAD TO LESSENED INSTABILITY THAN PLACES TO THE NORTH AND WEST BUT
STILL WITH ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THE MARGINAL SEVERE WEATHER RISK. THE
850MB JET WILL ONLY BE AROUND 30 TO 35 KTS DURING THIS TIME, BUT THE
INTENSITY OF THE LINE COULD CERTAINLY PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS,
ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. SMALL HAIL IS POSSIBLE,
BUT INSTABILITY WILL BE DIMINISHING IN THE GROWTH REGION. REGARDING
TORNADO POTENTIAL, LCL HEIGHTS ABOVE 1,000M AND LIMITED DIRECTIONAL
SHEAR WILL KEEP THE THREAT MINIMAL IN OUR AREA.
BEHIND THE MAIN LINE, STRATIFORM RAIN OR EVEN SHOWERS ARE SHOWN TO
LINGER OVERNIGHT WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ARRIVING JUST TO OUR
NORTHWEST BY SUNDAY. THIS WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES ELEVATED ON SUNDAY
WITH INSTABILITY HAVING LARGELY PUSHED OFF TO OUR SOUTHEAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE MODERATED BACK BELOW RECORD VALUES. BY
MONDAY, THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL WITH A CLOSED LOW
MOVING OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. DOWNSTREAM OF THIS CLOSED LOW WILL BE A
JET OF NEARLY 100 KTS WITH THE LEFT EXIT REGION, PULLING THE FRONT
BACK NORTHWARD. THIS WILL PROMOTE ANOTHER INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES
BY THE EVENING. ON TUESDAY, THE JET MERGES WITH A BROAD UPPER JET TO
THE NORTH, BROADENING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WAA AS ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL
DEVELOP AND TRACK TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. POTENTIAL RECORD
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO COME BACK INTO VIEW:
DAILY RECORD HIGH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
DATE CHATTANOOGA KNOXVILLE TRI-CITIES OAK RIDGE
03-09 82(2009) 82(1925) 79(2016) 80(1974)
03-10 81(2009) 81(2016) 82(2016) 81(2016)
03-11 81(2006) 81(2006) 78(2006) 80(1990)
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL GRADUALLY MOVE INTO THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT, LEADING TO ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS. BASED ON THE MODEL OUTPUTS AND OVERALL TIMING, THIS
ENVIRONMENT WOULD BE MORE OF A HIGHER SHEAR / LOWER CAPE SCENARIO
THAN WITH THE FIRST SYSTEM. AS SUCH, AN EARLIER TIMING WOULD BE MORE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE CHANCES, BUT THE LATEST TRENDS KEEP THIS
LARGELY TO OUR WEST. IT WILL BE WORTH WATCHING NONETHELESS. THE
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH BY LATER IN THE WEEK, LEADING TO A RETURN OF
COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 103 AM EST SAT MAR 7 2026
BOTH HYTOP AND MORRISTOWN RADAR VWPS ARE SHOWING WINDS OF AT LEAST
40 KNOTS AT 2,000 FEET AGL SO TACKED IN A LOW END LLWS FOR EARLY
THIS MORNING. STILL EXPECTING A DISORGANIZED LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE EVENING HOURS, THESE STORMS WILL HAVE GUSTY WINDS. STORMS
AND RAIN SHOULD BE EAST OF TN BEFORE THE END OF THE PERIOD, LEADING
TO VFR CONDITIONS BY THE END OF THE TAFS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 81 61 74 58 / 60 80 70 20
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 81 60 71 56 / 60 90 70 20
OAK RIDGE, TN 79 60 70 54 / 60 80 60 20
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 79 59 66 53 / 50 90 70 10
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION...WELLINGTON
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