269
FXUS64 KMRX 051124
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
724 AM EDT WED AUG 5 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 713 AM EDT WED AUG 5 2026
- DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE EACH DAY
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, PRIMARILY FAVORING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. A LOW CHANCE FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING EXISTS
EACH DAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 129 AM EDT WED AUG 5 2026
THE MEANDERING UPPER LOW OVERHEAD WILL DISSIPATE AND BE RE-ABSORBED
INTO THE MEAN WESTERLIES OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS, BUT STEADY MOISTURE
AND AUGUST TEMPERATURES SHOULD ALLOW FOR CONVECTION TO FIRE EACH
AFTERNOON, WITH MEDIUM CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS. AS OUR UPPER LOW FEATURE DISSIPATES TO END THE WEEK,
OROGRAPHIC FORCED STORMS I THINK WILL BE MORE LIKELY THAN VALLEY
BASED CONVECTION WHEN WE HIT THE WEEKEND AND HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK.
NEXT WORK WEEK THERE'S STILL UNCERTAINTY REGARDING STRENGTH OF FLOW
ALOFT, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF OUR AREA, BUT THE NBM'S LOW TO MEDIUM
CHANCES FOR PM HOURS SHOWERS AND STORMS LOOKS REASONABLE, AS WE WAIT
TO SEE WHERE BETTER FORCING ARRIVES OR IF WE'RE LEFT TO
OROGRAPHICALLY FORCED STORMS FOR A LONGER PERIOD OF TIME.
OTHERWISE EACH DAY SHOULD HAVE 1000 TO 3000 J CAPE AVAILABLE IN THE
RELATIVELY MOIST AIRMASS, AND DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S
SHOULD HELP COMBINE FOR SIMILAR RAIN RATE POTENTIAL AS YESTERDAY.
DAYS WITH LOWER CAPE MAY LIMIT THE OVERALL RISK, BUT THE SCATTERED
SUMMER CONVECTION SHOULD LEND ITSELF TO A LIGHTNING AND ISOLATED
FLOODING RISK. A FEW GUSTS TO 40 OR 50 MPH TOO DEPENDING ON STORM
DEPTH. STEERING WINDS ARE STILL GENERALLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, SO SLOW MOVING STORMS WILL HAVE OPPORTUNITY TO
RACK UP A QUICK COUPLE INCHES OF RAIN. AS ALWAYS WITH SUMMER
CONVECTION, LOCATION LOCATION LOCATION IS EVERYTHING WITH HOW
IMPACTFUL A FLASH FLOOD RISK IS, SO BE MINDFUL OF LOCAL LOW SPOTS OR
STREAMS THAT DON'T NEED MUCH TO CAUSE IMPACTS. TRANSITION TO
OROGRAPHIC INDUCED STORMS OVER THE WEEKEND MAY ALSO TRANSITION THE
BULK OF THE RISK TO THE TERRAIN FOR FLOODING POTENTIAL, BUT ANY
DECENT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTO THE VALLEY COULD SPARK NEW CONVECTION,
AS WE SAW YESTERDAY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 713 AM EDT WED AUG 5 2026
FOG WAS REPORTED AT TRI THIS MORNING AND CHA WENT DOWN TO MVFR
CIGS. BOTH WILL BE BACK TO VFR SHORTLY. TODAY, VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF HEAVY RAIN. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE MORE
ISOLATED THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME
MORE SOUTHERLY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 89 72 90 72 / 60 20 70 20
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 88 71 88 71 / 50 10 70 20
OAK RIDGE, TN 87 70 87 70 / 30 10 70 20
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 85 67 84 67 / 60 20 80 20
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...WELLINGTON
AVIATION...MCD
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