520
FXUS64 KMRX 171140
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
740 AM EDT SUN MAY 17 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 738 AM EDT SUN MAY 17 2026
- VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THE REST OF THIS WEEKEND
INTO THIS UPCOMING WEEK. MANY PLACES WILL REACH NEAR 90 DEGREES
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
- MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURN WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 149 AM EDT SUN MAY 17 2026
MAIN WEATHER FEATURE FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE AN
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES INTO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS. MAIN IMPACT WILL BE UNSEASONABLY VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. HIGHS WILL BE 10
TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
FOR SUNDAY, HREF AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE COMING INTO AGREEMENT
WITH A MID-LEVEL WAVE AND INCREASED 700-850MB WINDS ROTATING
NORTHWARD FROM GEORGIA INTO EAST TENNESSEE/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.
HREF SHOWS PWS INCREASING WITH CAPES OF 1000-1500 IN THE AFTERNOON.
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
BY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
AND NEAR THE GEORGIA STATE-LINE. AIRMASS WILL BE CHARACTERED BY HIGH
CLOUD BASE WITH DECENT MID-LEVEL DRY AIR AND LAPSE RATE. THESE
FEATURES MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED STRONG/GUSTY WINDS. HREF ALSO DENOTES
THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG WINDS WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. LOW
CONFIDENCE BUT POSSIBLE.
THIS WAVE MOVES OUT OF THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING WITH UPPER RIDGE WITH
ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. VERY WARM AND
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS. HIGHS WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.
FOR WEDNESDAY, THE UPPER RIDGE WEAKENS OVER THE REGION WITH A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING THE AREA LATE. BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY PULLING SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY ACCOMPANY THE INCOMING
FRONT. INSTABILITY REMAINS MARGINAL WITH CAPES OF 1000 WITH LIMITED
SHEAR. AT THIS TIME, STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED.
FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, A SERIES OF SHORT-WAVE EJECTS
NORTHEAST FROM TEXAS/MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE OHIO/TENNESSEE
VALLEYS. DEEPER MOISTURE COMBINED WITH THESE WAVES AND POSSIBLE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE AREA WILL PRODUCE PERIODS OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS. LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF CONVECTION. ENSEMBLE
QPF SUGGESTS BETWEEN 0.6-1.2 INCHES.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 738 AM EDT SUN MAY 17 2026
VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING
HOURS KNOXVILLE AND SOUTH, OTHERWISE VFR AND DRY CONDITIONS IS
THE EXPECTATION. GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS TO FOLLOW TYPICAL DIURNAL
CURVE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 90 66 89 67 / 20 20 20 10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 90 66 91 66 / 10 10 10 0
OAK RIDGE, TN 89 64 89 64 / 10 10 10 0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 87 61 90 61 / 10 10 10 0
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DH
AVIATION...WELLINGTON
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page