648
FXUS64 KMRX 291809
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
209 PM EDT WED APR 29 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 152 PM EDT WED APR 29 2026
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A FEW MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH GUSTY
WINDS AND HAIL THE MAIN HAZARD.
- RAIN CHANCES ARE ON A DOWNWARD TREND FOR THE SYSTEM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AS THE LOW SHIFTS FARTHER SOUTH.
- OVERALL, NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. PORTIONS OF THE AREA MAY SEE TEMPERATURES
FAVORABLE FOR FROST SUNDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 152 PM EDT WED APR 29 2026
A SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST WIND SHIFT CAN BE NOTED AMONG SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS AS A COLD FRONT IS ADVECTING THROUGH CENTRAL TN/KY.
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MINOR TO POCKETS OF MODERATE CLEARING
ACROSS OUR CWA AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. SPC MESO AND CAMS CONTINUE TO
SHOW AGREEMENT IN MLCAPE NEAR 1000 J/KG, LAPSE RATES NEAR 6.5-
7.0DEGC, AND DCAPE NEAR 800J/KG AS ADDITIONAL SCATTERED ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO SWING ACROSS THE AREA. THIS IS ALL ALONGSIDE EFFECTIVE
SHEAR NEAR 50KTS. IDEALLY WOULD HAVE LIKED TO SEE A LITTLE BIT
BETTER CLEARING FOR HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN STRONG TO SEVERE, AND
THE SLOWER CLEARING MAY BE RESULTING IN MORE OF A NARROW TIME
WINDOW FOR POTENTIAL ISOLATED SEVERE - PERHAPS BETWEEN 3-6PM, BUT
STILL BELIEVE THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONGER STORMS IS THERE.
ONE INTERESTING TREND TO NOTE IN THE CAMS IS AN UPTICK IN
CONVECTIVE INTENSITY AS THE ACTIVITY APPROACHES THE MOUNTAINS,
SUGGESTING LOCAL TOPOGRAPHY MAY BE WHAT IS NEEDED TO OVERCOME THE
LACK OF UPPER LEVEL LIFT. WITH THE STRONG THERMO PROFILE, WINDS
AND HAIL WILL BE OF PRIMARY CONCERN WITH THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY.
UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL MINIMIZE THE THREAT OF ANY
SPIN-UPS, BUT CANNOT SAY IT IS ZERO.
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL PROMOTE MOSTLY
DRY CONDITIONS WITH NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. THERE WILL BE A
VORT MAX ADVECTING THROUGH THE MID-WEST WITH AN ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
TRANSLATING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY. WHILE A NON-IMPACTFUL
SHOWER CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT ACROSS OUR CWA FRINGES, THE MAIN
IMPACT WILL BE INCREASING CLOUDS.
THESE SYNOPTIC FEATURES WILL PROMOTE A TROUGH AXIS SWINGING THROUGH
THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AND THROUGH THE
DAY SATURDAY. WE WILL SEE A RETURN OF PRECIP CHANCES DURING THIS
TIME FRAME, ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF AN IMAGINARY LINE
FROM CHA TO TRI, IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO A SOUTHWESTERLY H5 JET CORE
NEAR 75-85KTS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION SUNDAY AS DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS END THE WEEKEND.
DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY CLOUDS CLEAR OUT SATURDAY NIGHT, THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR TEMPERATURES SUPPORTIVE OF AREAS OF FROST IN PORTIONS
OF NORTHEAST TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA SUNDAY MORNING.
REINFORCEMENT OF THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH IS EXPECTED IN THE MON/TUE
TIME FRAME. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY WILL BRING A RETURN OF SHOWER/STORM CHANCES BUT WEAKER UPPER
FORCING SUGGEST NO STANDOUT THREAT OF STRONG/SVR DURING THIS TIME
FRAME. A BRIEF DRY PERIOD IS EXPECTED MID-WEEK BEFORE A MORE
PRONOUNCED TROUGH BRINGS ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE WED
NIGHT/THU TIME FRAME.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 152 PM EDT WED APR 29 2026
LOW VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
AS A COLD FRONT BEGINS TRAVERSES THE REGION. MOST LIKELY TIME TO
HAVE A POTENTIAL SHOWER OR STORM IMPACT A TERMINAL HAS BEEN
COVERED WITH PROB30S, WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR LIGHTNING ACTIVITY
AT TYS/TRI. PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS WITH A SHIFT TO
NWLY/NLY WINDS IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT THIS EVENING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 53 72 52 70 / 10 0 10 20
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 50 68 47 69 / 10 0 10 20
OAK RIDGE, TN 49 69 47 70 / 10 0 10 20
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 47 65 41 66 / 20 10 10 20
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KRS
AVIATION...KRS
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