420
FXUS64 KMRX 271740
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
140 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 138 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2026
- ANOTHER DAY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING WITH ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED COVERAGE.
- STORM CHANCES WILL NOT GO AWAY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, BUT
THE TREND IS TO SEE LONGER AND LONGER PERIODS OF DRY WEATHER AND
SMALLER WINDOWS OF STORMS AS WE HEAD INTO THE BACK HALF OF THE
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 138 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2026
CURRENTLY STORMS ALREADY PRESENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS UNDER CLEARER SKIES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
HELP FUEL THE CONTINUED DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS
WE'VE EXPERIENCED FOR NUMEROUS DAYS NOW. EXPECT THESE STORMS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND DISSIPATE
BEFORE MIDNIGHT. WE COULD SEE A FEW STRONG STORMS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHEAST TN AND SOUTHWEST VA CLOSER TO BETTER
SYNOPTIC FORCING AND A SURFACE BOUNDARY, BUT THE BEST ATMOSPHERIC
DYNAMICS LOOKS TO STAY OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST. CAN'T RULE OUT SOME
ROGUE STORMS LINGERING PAST MIDNIGHT ACROSS SOUTHWEST VA AS WELL.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A FAIRLY UNIMPRESSIVE ATMOSPHERE, BUT A
QUICK BURST OF WIND IS POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGEST STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON. THE ORIENTATION OF THESE STORMS MEANS THEY'LL BE GENERALLY
MOVING SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AND THAT COULD CAUSE SOME VERY
LOCALIZED TRAINING OF STORMS... SO WE COULD SEE SOME ADDITIONAL
ISOLATED FLOODING, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED MULTIPLE ROUNDS
OF HEAVY RAIN OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.
CONTINUING TOMORROW WE'LL ACTUALLY HAVE A DECENT CHANCE TO SEE
SUPPRESSED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS THE FRONT TO OUR NORTH SAGS
FURTHER SOUTH. DEPENDING ON HOW FAR SOUTH THIS BOUNDARY MAKES IT
WE'LL LIKELY KEEP STORM ACTIVITY TO THE SOUTH OF IT. LOCATIONS NORTH
OF I-40 HAVE THE BEST CHANCE AT STAYING RAIN FREE BASED ON CURRENT
CAM RUNS. SATURDAY MIGHT SEE A SURGE BACK NORTH OF THE STORM
ACTIVITY, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS POINT DUE TO MINOR CHANGES
IN THE ATMOSPHERE AND LINGERING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES LIKELY TO
INFLUENCE THE FINAL LOCATION OF THE BOUNDARY.
SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK COULD BRING SOME DRYING OUT TO THE REGION AS
WE SIT ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF A DEEP TROUGH/LOW MEANDERING THROUGH
THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE UNITED STATES. THIS SLOW MOVING SYSTEM
MEANS WE'LL BE UNDER GENERALLY DRIER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH MUCH
OF THE ATMOSPHERE. SURFACE HIGH OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST COULD STILL
DRAW UP SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE, BUT THIS PATTERN WOULD TYPICALLY
INDICATE LESS CHANCES FOR RAIN OVER THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO
NEXT WEEK. IN ADDITION TEMPERATURES EVER SO SLIGHTLY COOL BY A
COUPLE OF DEGREES FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK UNDER THIS SYSTEM.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 138 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2026
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF
THE EVENING, EVENTUALLY DISSIPATING AFTER SUNSET. MULTIPLE ROUNDS
CAN BE EXPECTED AT EACH TAF SITE BRIEFLY BRINGING CONDITIONS DOWN
TO IFR OR LOWER. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH RAIN OCCURS AT AN AIRPORT
WE COULD SEE FOG DEVELOP OVERNIGHT, BUT LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS
TIME UNTIL WE SEE WHERE RAIN OCCURS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 67 84 66 80 / 30 50 30 70
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 66 82 63 81 / 50 70 10 60
OAK RIDGE, TN 64 82 62 80 / 40 40 10 60
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 63 81 57 82 / 70 70 0 20
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...99
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