600
FXUS64 KMRX 081816
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
216 PM EDT MON JUN 8 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 212 PM EDT MON JUN 8 2026
- VERY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES AND AN INCREASED RISK FOR FLASH
FLOODING IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING,
ESPECIALLY OVER OUR TN AND SW NC COUNTIES.
- CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE EACH DAY
THROUGH NEXT MONDAY, AND SOME STORMS MAY CONTAIN VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 212 PM EDT MON JUN 8 2026
THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING AND THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE LEFT AS IS FOR
NOW. WHILE THE THREAT OF FLOODING STILL LOOKS ISOLATED THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING, THERE CONTINUES TO BE POTENTIAL FOR
EXTREMELY HIGH RAINFALL RATES GIVEN THE NEAR RECORD PWAT VALUES
COMBINED WITH THE TALL SKINNY CAPE PROFILES, HIGH FREEZING LEVELS,
AND SLOW STORM MOVEMENT. CAMS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALIZED HIGH RAINFALL TOTALS, AND ALTHOUGH EXACT LOCATIONS FOR
ANY VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IS STILL UNCLEAR THERE APPEARS TO BE AN
ENHANCED THREAT FROM PORTIONS OF THE PLATEAU ACROSS OUR CENTRAL
CWA AND ADJACENT SOUTHERN COUNTIES NEAR AND SOUTH OF A POORLY
DEFINED, NEARLY STATIONARY, SUMMERTIME BOUNDARY. THIS BOUNDARY
CURRENTLY LOOKS TO BE DRAPED SOMEWHERE ACROSS NE TN NOT FAR FROM
MORRISTOWN.
PWAT VALUES WILL STILL BE QUITE HIGH DESPITE A SMALL TICK DOWN ON
TUESDAY, AND THE ATMOSPHERE OVERALL IS STILL SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH
VERY HEAVY RAIN RATES FAVORED. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
FLOW THAT SHOULD RESULT IN SLIGHTLY FASTER STORM MOTION. HOWEVER,
DESPITE THE EXPECTED UPTICK IN STORM MOTION, GIVEN THE VERY MOIST
ENVIRONMENT AND ANOTHER HEAVY RAIN FAVORABLE CAPE PROFILE ALONG
WITH A DEEP WARM CLOUD LAYER, VERY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES AND
LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TUESDAY. RIGHT NOW NO
ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR TOMORROW, BUT
TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED.
THE WARM AND STICKY CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND POSSIBLY THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK, WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY
SOME OF WHICH WILL CONTAIN TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS. THE WEAK UPPER
TROUGH THAT IS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND TUESDAY WILL MOVE
OFF TO OUR EAST AND NORTHEAST BY MIDWEEK AND BE REPLACED BY A
RESURGENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR A BIT OF A LULL
IN THE CONVECTION MID WEEK, BUT AT LEAST ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
COVERAGE IS STILL EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT MONDAY MODELS HAVE BEEN SUGGESTING A FRONT MAY
BE APPROACHING ALTHOUGH THE DETAILS ABOUT TIMING AND HOW MUCH
PROGRESS IT MAKES ARE STILL VERY UNCERTAIN. HOWEVER, THERE MAY BE
MORE UPPER SUPPORT FROM THE JET TO OUR NORTH OR SHORTWAVES IN THE
FLOW ALOFT AS THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND THE FRONT APPROACHES, WHICH
WOULD BRING ANOTHER UPTICK IN CONVECTION BUT ALSO INTRODUCES THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME DRYING IF THE FRONT ACTUALLY MAKES IT TO OUR
SOUTH AND EAST.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1257 PM EDT MON JUN 8 2026
WE WILL SEE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AROUND
EARLY IN THE PERIOD, THEN THEY WILL DIMINISH BEFORE CHANCES TREND
UPWARD AGAIN LATE IN PERIOD. HIGHEST CHANCES OVERALL LOOK TO BE AT
CHA AND TYS. WILL HAVE MAINLY VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE FORECAST,
ALTHOUGH THE DETAILS ARE UNCERTAIN AND IFR (OR LOWER) CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES AT LEAST BRIEFLY. WILL TRY TO TIME THE
PERIODS WITH THE HIGHER THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES WITH PROB30 AND
TEMPO GROUPS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 69 86 70 89 / 50 70 40 20
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 68 85 70 88 / 70 80 40 40
OAK RIDGE, TN 68 84 69 87 / 60 90 30 50
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 67 83 67 85 / 30 80 50 80
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.
TN...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM EDT /8 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR ANDERSON-
BLEDSOE-BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-
COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-
HANCOCK-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MARION-MCMINN-
MEIGS-MORGAN-NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST BLOUNT-NORTHWEST CARTER-
NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-RHEA-
ROANE-SCOTT TN-SEQUATCHIE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST
CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-
UNION-WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...99
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