550
FXUS64 KMRX 122328
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
628 PM EST MON JAN 12 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 623 PM EST MON JAN 12 2026
- ACCUMULATING SNOW IS LIKELY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS, WITH
LOWER CHANCES FOR THE VALLEY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
- ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND,
ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1215 PM EST MON JAN 12 2026
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL KEEP THINGS DRY TODAY THROUGH
TUESDAY, WITH SOME GRADUAL WARMING. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.
BY WEDNESDAY, AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE DIGGING FROM THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST, AND A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING. A STRONG UPPER JET
DIVING SOUTHEAST ON THE BACK SIDE WILL AMPLIFY THE TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. MUCH COLDER
AIR WILL BE PUSHING IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ON THIS GENERAL SCENARIO FOR WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY,
BUT THE DETAILS ARE MUCH MURKIER. MODELS SOLUTIONS HAVE BEEN ALL
OVER THE PLACE AS TO HOW THE FORCING EVOLVES, ESPECIALLY AS IT
RELATES TO POSSIBLE VALLEY SNOW. MODEL TRENDS OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS
HAVE SEEN EVEN THE MORE BULLISH MODELS FOR SNOW (LED BY THE GFS)
BACKING OFF, AND ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE
VALLEYS HAVE BEEN DROPPING. RIGHT NOW, LATEST NBM PROBABILITIES FOR
GREATER THAN AN INCH OF SNOW FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
VALLEY ARE LESS THAN 20%. HOWEVER, THE CONFIDENCE FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IS MUCH HIGHER. THE
INITIAL PRECIPITATION AS THE FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH MOVE IN, WHICH
WILL LIKELY START AS RAIN OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS, WILL EITHER
START AS SNOW OR QUICKLY CHANGE OVER IN THE HIGHEST TERRAIN. IN
ADDITION, A PERIOD OF NORTHWEST FLOW AND COLD ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO
OROGRAPHICALLY FORCED SNOW SHOWERS THAT WILL LINGER INTO THURSDAY.
SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ARE LIKELY OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN PEAKS OF
THE MOUNTAINS BY THE END OF THURSDAY. TRAVEL IMPACTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AREAS OF SW VA, THE PLATEAU, AND THE E TN MOUNTAINS.
A FEW FLURRIES MAY LINGER INTO THURSDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST
AND MOUNTAINS, BUT BY FRIDAY WE WILL BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH A DRY
BUT COLD DAY ACROSS THE AREA.
FOR THE WEEKEND, MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT WE WILL SEE
ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING IN AND REINFORCING THE UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE REGION. THE DETAILS ARE STILL VERY UNCERTAIN, BUT
ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE WHICH THERMAL PROFILES
SUGGEST WOULD LIKELY BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW SHOWERS. MONDAY LOOKS TO
BE MAINLY DRY BUT COLD.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 623 PM EST MON JAN 12 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH ONLY HIGH
CLOUDS PASSING BY AT TIMES. PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL INCREASE
ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE MIDDAY TIME FRAME TOMORROW. THE
RESTRICTION OF THE TN VALLEY, COUPLED WITH PRESSURE GRADIENTS AND
ENOUGH MIXING, COULD PRODUCE SOME 15-20KT GUSTS AT KTYS AFTER 18Z.
NOT SUPREMELY CONFIDENT IN THAT HOWEVER SO JUST HAVE A FM GROUP
TO INTRODUCE SOME 23011KT WINDS THERE FOR NOW. ELSEWHERE, EXPECT
WINDS TO REMAIN BELOW 7KT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 30 58 39 52 / 0 0 0 60
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 28 55 39 50 / 0 0 0 80
OAK RIDGE, TN 27 53 36 48 / 0 0 0 80
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 25 52 34 47 / 0 0 0 80
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...CD
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