405
FXUS64 KMRX 261316
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
816 AM EST MON JAN 26 2026
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 813 AM EST MON JAN 26 2026
- COLD WITH SOME FLURRIES AROUND TODAY.
- EXTREMELY COLD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING, AND IT WILL REMAIN COLD THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 813 AM EST MON JAN 26 2026
STILL SOME FLURRIES AROUND, SO DOING A QUICK UPDATE TO KEEP
FLURRIES IN THE FORECAST MAINLY NORTH AND CENTRAL WITH A GRADUAL
DECREASE DURING THE DAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 208 AM EST MON JAN 26 2026
AFTER COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORING WFOS, UPGRADED THE EXTREME
COLD WATCH ACROSS SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND THE EAST TENNESSEE
MOUNTAIN ZONES AND SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA TO A COLD ADVISORY FOR
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE CRESTS OF THE RIDGES AND
MOUNTAINS IN NORTHEASTERN TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA MAY
REACH APPARENT TEMPERATURES AS COLD AS -15F BELOW. WITH
SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCRETION FROM THE WEEKEND IN PORTIONS OF THE
REGION, TAKE THE NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS TO KEEP YOURSELF AND YOUR
PETS WARM THIS WEEK!
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1240 AM EST MON JAN 26 2026
CURRENT ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH THE
REGION AND WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE NORTHWEST FOR MOST OF THE
VALLEY. LIGHT PRECIP CAN BE SEEN ON RADAR FROM KNOXVILLE NORTHWARD
WITH COLDER TEMPS STARTING TO MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST. LITTLE TO NO PRECIP IS BEING REPORTED TO THE WEST IN THE
COLD, DRY AIR MASS OVER MIDDLE TENNESSEE. THERE ARE SOME STRONGER
RETURNS ON RADAR OVER SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY WITH LIGHT SNOW REPORTED.
THE DRIZZLE WILL MOVE OUT AS THE COLD AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. A
SPS IS OUT FOR BLACK ICE POTENTIAL FOR SPOTS THAT FREEZE BEFORE
DRYING OUT TONIGHT THROUGH MORNING. MESOANALYSIS SHOWS THAT 850 MB
TEMPS ARE BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE REGION. SOME FLURRIES OR
POSSIBLY A BRIEF LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE COLD AIR FIRST
MOVES IN AROUND MIDNIGHT. THE BEST POTENTIAL WILL BE SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA BUT ANY NEW ACCUMULATION WILL BE LESS THAN ONE INCH AND
NEW ICE ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL IS ENDING.
THE HIGH WIND WARNING IN THE MOUNTAINS HAS ENDED SINCE THE WINDS
HAVE SHIFTED AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 10 MPH
FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE VERY COLD AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION,
HOPEFULLY HELPING DRY OUT ROADWAYS.
A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN PLACE FOR TONIGHT THROUGH THE MORNING
AS VERY COLD AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT. WIND CHILLS
WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BY MORNING IN THE VALLEY. WIND CHILLS
WILL BE BELOW ZERO IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS. TODAY
WILL BE COLD WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S IN THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WITH WIND
CHILLS IN THE TEENS. THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL HAVE WIND CHILLS IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS AND BELOW ZERO TODAY.
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE EVEN COLDER. A COLD WEATHER
ADVISORY IS IN PLACE FOR MOST OF THE REGION AND AN EXTREME COLD
WATCH IS IN PLACE FOR THE EAST TENNESSEE MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA. LOWS WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING WITH COLDER WIND CHILLS POSSIBLE.
THIS WEEK WILL GENERALLY BE COLD AND DRY AS A DEEP TROUGH REMAINS
OVER THE EASTERN U.S. A FEW WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE PATTERN MAY
KICK OFF SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES AT TIMES BUT EVEN IF THAT
HAPPENS IT LOOKS BRIEF AND UNEVENTFUL AT THIS TIME WITH A DRY AIR
MASS IN PLACE. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 30S FOR THE VALLEY FROM TUESDAY
ON. LOWS WILL BE IN THE TEENS EACH NIGHT STARTING TUESDAY NIGHT
LIKELY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 643 AM EST MON JAN 26 2026
LIGHT ONGOING SNOW FLURRIES ACROSS THE TN VALLEY THIS MORNING ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO POSE ANY VIS THREATS. FLURRIES MAY BE OFF/ON MUCH
OF TODAY, HAVE TEMPOS IN FOR CURRENT RADAR TRENDS, SKIES
SCATTERING AND CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON WILL END PRECIPITATION AND
RETURN CIGS TO VFR. FEW GUSTY WINDS AROUND, OTHERWISE A STEADY
BREEZE BEFORE WINDS WEAKEN LATE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 29 8 39 18 / 10 0 0 0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 26 7 35 18 / 10 0 0 0
OAK RIDGE, TN 26 5 36 16 / 10 0 0 0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 24 4 31 16 / 10 0 0 0
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR CHEROKEE-
CLAY.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST TUESDAY
FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.
TN...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ THIS MORNING
FOR ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-BRADLEY-
CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-EAST POLK-GRAINGER-
HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-
LOUDON-MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-MORGAN-NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST
BLOUNT-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-
NORTHWEST MONROE-RHEA-ROANE-SCOTT TN-SEQUATCHIE-SEVIER
SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST
MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM EST /5 PM CST/ THIS EVENING TO
NOON EST /11 AM CST/ TUESDAY FOR ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-BLOUNT
SMOKY MOUNTAINS-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-COCKE SMOKY
MOUNTAINS-EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-
HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-
MORGAN-NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST BLOUNT-NORTHWEST CARTER-
NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-RHEA-
ROANE-SCOTT TN-SEQUATCHIE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST
CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-
UNION-WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.
VA...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR LEE-
RUSSELL-SCOTT VA-WASHINGTON VA-WISE.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST TUESDAY
FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT VA-WASHINGTON VA-WISE.
DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...WELLINGTON
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