527
FXUS64 KMRX 071902
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
202 PM EST SAT MAR 7 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 150 PM EST SAT MAR 7 2026
- A LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THE MOST LIKELY
TIMING IS BETWEEN 5 TO 10 PM EST. ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN AREAS.
- OFF AND ON CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE SUNDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH WEDNESDAY EVENING HAVING THE BEST CHANCE
FOR STORMS, SOME OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG.
- SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY, BUT THE WELL
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES MAKE A RETURN MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 150 PM EST SAT MAR 7 2026
FORECAST FOR RECORD BREAKING DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAINS MOSTLY
ON TRACK, PARTICULARLY FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS(ALREADY
SURPASSED TRI). SLIGHTLY ENHANCED CLOUD COVER ATOP THE SOUTHERN
VALLEY HAS CHA A TAD BEHIND HOURLY NBM TRENDS, AND IT LOOKS
INCREASINGLY LIKELY TEMPS WILL BE SHY OF THE DAILY RECORD THERE.
REGARDING THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY, SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE CURRENTLY
PROGRESSING INTO CENTRAL KY/TN. THIS ACTIVITY IS BEING DRIVEN BY
AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM PREVIOUS NIGHTS CONVECTION AS WELL AS
INCREASING MID TO UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE & VORTICITY AHEAD OF A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT FURTHER UPSTREAM.
CAMS REMAIN IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT MOST LIKELY TIMING WILL BE
BETWEEN 5 AND 10 PM EST. AS THE CONVECTION MOVES THROUGH THE REGION
A SOUTHWESTERLY H85 JET BETWEEN 30-35KTS WILL AID IN EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR NEAR 35KTS AND 0-1KM SHEAR NEAR 20-25KTS. LATEST MODEL DERIVED
SOUNDINGS DEPICT SBCAPE VALUES 800-1000J/KG. PRIMARY HAZARD
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS,
FOLLOWED BY SMALL HAIL. WHILE A BRIEF SPIN-UP CANNOT BE TOTALLY
RULED OUT, THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION FOR THIS WOULD BE ALONG THE
PLATEAU WHERE TERRAIN INFLUENCE COULD HELP OVERCOME UNFAVORABLE LCL
HEIGHTS RIGHT ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE CONVECTION. OVERALL, THE
MOST FAVORABLE LOCATIONS FOR STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE
ALONG AND WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 75 CORRIDOR AS HREF MEAN SBCAPE
VALUES FALL RATHER QUICKLY AS THE LINE PROGRESSES INTO THE
APPALACHIANS.
LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE AT TIMES THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT AND EVEN
INTO SUNDAY AS THE COLD FRONT THEN PROGRESSES ACROSS THE REGION, BUT
NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME. SUNDAY TEMPERATURES
WILL RUN COOLER ALONGSIDE LIGHT AND WESTERLY WINDS.
THE COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS WE REBOUND TO WELL
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AMONG INCREASING H5 HEIGHTS MONDAY. THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL RETURN WITH A SOUTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. A BRIEF BREAK IN
PRECIP IS EXPECTED BEFORE FOCUS TURNS TO A MORE AMPLIFIED SYSTEM
BRINGING A RETURN FOR THE CHANCE OF STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE
STORM ACTIVITY LATE WEDNESDAY. WESTERN AND CENTRAL TENNESSEE
VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU ARE HIGHLIGHTED
WITHIN THE DAY 5 SPC CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK. A STRONGER LLJ (40-45KTS)
WILL PROMOTE A CHANCE FOR GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE EAST TENNESSEE
MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS AS WELL. A DRASTIC COOLING TREND
IN THE REALM OF 30 DEGREES IS EXPECTED POST FROPA THURSDAY. DRIER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO END THE FORECAST PERIOD.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM EST SAT MAR 7 2026
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON, WITH A LINE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS ACROSS THE REGION LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PERIODS OF MVFR OR IFR VIS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT UNDER THE MOST INTENSE CONVECTION. BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION
COMES TO AN END OVERNIGHT BUT OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN MAY PERSIST
AT TRI/TYS AT TIMES, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOWER IN THIS ASPECT.
PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED AS AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO THE REGION TOMORROW MORNING INTO MID-DAY. A FEW SPOTTY
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME AS WELL.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 62 73 56 78 / 100 50 10 30
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 61 70 54 76 / 90 60 10 20
OAK RIDGE, TN 60 69 52 76 / 90 50 10 20
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 58 67 51 72 / 90 60 10 10
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...99
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