430
FXUS64 KMRX 180629
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
129 AM EST WED FEB 18 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 128 AM EST WED FEB 18 2026
- WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY.
- RAIN CHANCE RETURNS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, GENERALLY LIGHT RAIN AMOUNTS EXPECTED.
- COLD TEMPERATURES RETURN NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 128 AM EST WED FEB 18 2026
IN THE UPPER LEVELS, THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST BREAKS DOWN TODAY
BECOMING NEARLY ZONAL FLOW. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST IS WEAK. RAIN CHANCES ARE VERY LOW THIS AFTERNOON. RAIN
CHANCES START TO INCREASE WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
AS A VORT MAX MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER
WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT NOT LIKELY WITH DEW POINTS REMAINING BELOW 60
DEGREES. BY THURSDAY MORNING, A SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE INTO KS/MO
WITH A WARM FRONT WELL TO OUR NORTH OVER IL/IN/OH AND A COLD FRONT
OVER OK/TX. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LOW THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE
BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS
THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THE PARENT LOW WILL BE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. THUNDER POTENTIAL IS LOW BUT A FEW RUMBLES CANNOT BE RULED
OUT.
SOME STRONGER WINDS WILL BE LIKELY IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS
THROUGH NOON WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING AS 850 MB WINDS INCREASE BUT IT LOOKS LIKE GUSTS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA AT MOST LOCATIONS. THE HIGHER
MOUNTAIN PEAKS OF GSMNP MAY GET SOME GUSTS IN THE 40 TO 45 MPH RANGE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING BUT THOSE HIGHER GUSTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH FOR A WIND ADVISORY.
WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S.
THURSDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH HIGHS GETTING INTO THE 70S IN
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.
ON SATURDAY, ANOTHER SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BRING RAIN. THIS ONE MAY
HAVE BETTER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. DRYING OUT SUNDAY AS A TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS "HORSESHOE" ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM ON
SUNDAY BUT ACCUMULATION LOOK VERY LOW AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE MUCH COLDER SUNDAY, MONDAY, TUESDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
40S.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1218 AM EST WED FEB 18 2026
MVFR CEILINGS WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA SOUTH TO NORTH WITH CHA
SEEING REDUCTIONS BEFORE SUNRISE. THIS WILL NOT OCCUR AT TYS OR
TRI UNTIL LATER THIS MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY BREEZY BY EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS OR MORE EXPECTED. A FEW SHOWERS
WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY AROUND TYS
AND TRI. WHILE POSSIBLE FOR ONE TO MOVE OVER A TERMINAL, VCSH WAS
MAINTAINED AS ADDITIONAL IMPACTS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 68 59 77 60 / 10 30 20 80
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 65 59 74 60 / 20 50 40 80
OAK RIDGE, TN 63 57 72 58 / 20 60 40 80
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 63 53 71 55 / 20 60 50 70
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MCD
AVIATION...BW
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