414
FXUS64 KMRX 301823
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
223 PM EDT SAT MAY 30 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 221 PM EDT SAT MAY 30 2026
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THIS
AFTERNOON.
- ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED AT
TIMES SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL BE POSSIBLE WHICH MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING, AND A
FEW STORMS MAY BRING STRONG GUSTY WINDS MAINLY MONDAY INTO
MONDAY EVENING.
- A DRIER WEATHER PATTERN DEVELOPS DURING THE COMING WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 221 PM EDT SAT MAY 30 2026
THE FLOODING THREAT CONTINUES TO DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS DRIER
AIR WORKS NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA AND THE WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STILL OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA SLOWLY SAGS
FURTHER SOUTH. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE ON
SCHEDULE. ISOLATED CONVECTION MAY LINGER SOUTH INTO EARLY
TONIGHT, BUT FOR THE MOST PART TONIGHT WILL BE DRY ACROSS THE
AREA.
A WEAK IMPULSE IN THE FLOW WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND A
FEW STORMS AGAIN LATER SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES CURRENTLY LOOKING
TO BE ACROSS THE SOUTH AND CENTRAL AREAS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN
ACROSS CENTRAL AREAS SUNDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH THESE DETAILS ARE STILL
IN FLUX. MODELS DISAGREE ON THE DETAILS, BUT THEY GENERALLY SHOW
THE DEEPER MOISTURE SPREADING BACK NORTH WITH MODEL PWAT VALUES
REACHING THE 1.5 TO 1.8 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AND WHAT
LIMITED CAPE IS AVAILABLE LOOKS TO BE AGAIN DISTRIBUTED IN A TALL
SKINNY PROFILE. GIVEN THE WEAK BOUNDARY STILL OVER THE AREA TO ACT
AS A POTENTIAL FOCUS FOR CONVECTION AND GIVEN THAT SOME AREAS ARE
ALREADY RATHER WET, THERE IS A THREAT OF VERY HEAVY RAIN RATES AND
LOCALIZED FLOODING. THIS WILL BEAR WATCHING, AND WILL BE ADDED TO
THE HWO FOR NOW.
FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT HEIGHTS WILL BE FALLING AS AN UPPER
TROUGH DIGS SOUTH, AND A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO AND THEN
THROUGH OUR AREA. MODEL CAPE VALUES APPROACHING OR EXCEEDING 1500
J/KG AND AN INCREASE IN BULK SHEAR SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW
STORMS BECOMING STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE ESPECIALLY ACROSS
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF OUR AREA ON MONDAY OR MONDAY
EVENING WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT. THIS THREAT WILL BE
MENTIONED IN THE HWO AS WELL.
A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS MAY LINGER ESPECIALLY NORTH AND EAST TUESDAY
AS ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH, THEN
DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN AND THE DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN
PERSIST AT LEAST THROUGH FRIDAY ALONG WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND. BY
LATE IN THE PERIOD, SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MAY INCREASE AS
WE MOVE INTO THE WEEKEND, ALTHOUGH MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN TO DELAY
THE MOISTURE RETURN AND CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH FOR THE DETAILS THAT
FAR OUT.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1241 PM EDT SAT MAY 30 2026
A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS AROUND MAINLY CHA EARLY, AND WILL
INCLUDE A TEMPO THUNDER GROUP AT CHA . OUTSIDE OF ANY
SHOWERS/STORMS, CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY BE VFR. HOWEVER, LATE
IN THE PERIOD SOME LOW VFR OR MVFR CIGS WILL MOVE BACK IN AT CHA,
AND A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND AS WELL. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
LIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 66 80 64 84 / 20 40 40 50
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 61 82 63 81 / 10 30 50 70
OAK RIDGE, TN 60 82 63 82 / 10 40 50 70
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 56 82 60 80 / 0 0 50 60
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...99
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