411
FXUS64 KMRX 092359
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
659 PM EST FRI JAN 9 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 650 PM EST FRI JAN 9 2026
- UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY.
- MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED STORMS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR FLOODING
EXISTS SOUTH OF I-40 WHERE A FLOOD WATCH WAS INTRODUCED.
- SEASONALLY COLDER AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN BY SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, THOUGH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WITH LITTLE TO
NO ACCUMULATION WILL BE POSSIBLE IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 117 PM EST FRI JAN 9 2026
A DEEP AND POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE
OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CONUS WHILE AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW HAS
LIFTED THROUGH MICHIGAN'S LOWER PENINSULA. STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY
850MB FLOW AROUND 40 TO 50KTS CONTINUES TO PROMOTE ANOMALOUS PWAT
NEAR 1.3 TO 1.5 INCHES AS A PRECIP SHIELD SPREADS THROUGHOUT EAST
TENNESSEE. THE STRONG H85 FLOW HAS ALSO CONTRIBUTED TO GUSTY
MOUNTAIN WAVE WINDS ACROSS THE EAST TENNESSEE MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT
FOOTHILLS, HOWEVER, THE LLJ WILL BRIEFLY WEAKEN AS WE CONTINUE INTO
THE AFTERNOON AND THE STRONGEST GUSTS INTO ADVISORY LEVEL CRITERIA
WILL FURTHER WANE. THE WIND ADVISORY WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 18Z
AS PLANNED.
THE MAIN FOCUS WITH THIS UNSETTLED PATTERN THROUGH SATURDAY WILL BE
RAINFALL. LATEST 6HR MRMS QPE VALUES SUGGEST THIS ACTIVITY WAS
PRODUCING BETWEEN 1-1.5 INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL TENNESSEE AS
WELL AS PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL ALABAMA, THOUGH, A MINOR
DECREASE IN EFFICIENCY HAS BEEN NOTED OVER THE LAST HOUR OR TWO AS
THE LLJ WEAKENS. WHILE POSITIONED JUST TO OUR SOUTH, AN
ADDITIONAL UP TICK IN 850MB FLOW BETWEEN 40 AND 50 KTS IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT. 12Z HREF SUITE WAS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN AREA
OF 1.5-2.5" ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES, INCLUDING SOME
LOCALIZED TOTALS IN EXCESS OF THREE INCHES FOR STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS.
BECAUSE OF THIS, HAVE OPTED TO INTRODUCED A FLOOD WATCH FROM
BLEDSOE TO MONROE AND DOWN INTO CHEROKEE AND CLAY COUNTIES OF
NORTH CAROLINA. BECAUSE OF THE RECENT DRY SPELL LOW-LYING AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS ARE THE MAIN CONCERN. SEVERE THREAT SEEMS VERY LOW
AS THE PERSISTENT CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL HINDER THE ABILITY TO
BUILD IN SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE NEAR
THE TN/NC/GA BORDER LATE SATURDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS, BUT AGAIN THIS THREAT IS VERY
LOW.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SUNDAY INTO THE NEW WORK WEEK, WITH A PERIOD
OF DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY. SOME BRIEF SNOW
FLURRIES WITH LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
MAY OCCUR BEFORE MOISTURE TOTALLY DEPARTS THE REGION SUNDAY.
DOWNSTREAM FROM A AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER THE PNW, TROUGHING WILL
DEEPEN ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS MID WEEK. MOISTURE
WRAPPING AROUND A SURFACE LOW IN THE NE CONUS WILL LEAD TO A
RETURN OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION CHANCES, WHICH MAY LEAD TO LIGHT
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS, AND SEASONALLY COOL
TEMPERATURES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 650 PM EST FRI JAN 9 2026
BRIEF BREAK IN HEAVIER PRECIPITATION UNTIL THE NEXT ROUND
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT. LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN AT
TIMES WITH PREDOMINANTLY IFR CONDITIONS AND POSSIBLE LIFR VSBY
AND CIG. PRECIPITATION WILL LIGHTEN ACROSS THE AREA LATE MORNING
TO EARLY AFTERNOON SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT, BUT CONDITIONS
WILL BE MVFR AT BEST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 59 64 37 45 / 100 100 10 0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 56 62 35 41 / 90 100 20 0
OAK RIDGE, TN 56 61 34 41 / 90 100 20 0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 54 61 33 39 / 90 100 50 20
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.
TN...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR BLEDSOE-BRADLEY-EAST
POLK-HAMILTON-MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-NORTHWEST MONROE-RHEA-
SEQUATCHIE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-WEST POLK.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...KS
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