027
FXUS64 KMRX 112329 AAA
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
729 PM EDT SAT APR 11 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 725 PM EDT SAT APR 11 2026
- A WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND, WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK. RECORD HIGHS ARE POSSIBLE
NEXT WEEK.
- DRY WEATHER IS LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH NEXT WEEK, WORSENING
DROUGHT AND FIRE CONDITIONS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 114 PM EDT SAT APR 11 2026
VERY LITTLE HAS CHANGED REGARDING THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT WEEK.
A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WILL BE THE
DOMINANT FEATURE, PROVIDING DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS. A SERIES OF
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL CROSS THE PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES, BUT
THE STRENGTH OF THIS RIDGE WILL PREVENT ANY PRECIP FROM REACHING
OUR AREA UNTIL PERHAPS LATE NEXT WEEK WHEN THE RIDGE SHIFTS OFF
THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE.
THE MAIN WEATHER CONCERN FOR THIS PERIOD WILL BE FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. AS HIGH TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 80S, AFTERNOON RH
VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE 20S. WINDS WILL INCREASE TOMORROW TO
AROUND 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 20, THEN INCREASE AGAIN ON
MONDAY, 10-20 WITH GUSTS 25-30 MPH, AIDED BY CHANNELING OF SW
WINDS UP THE TN VALLEY. MONDAY WILL HAVE SOME CLOUD COVER, WHICH
MAY AID IN KEEPING RH VALUES FROM DROPPING BELOW 25%. FIRE
WEATHER INTERESTS SHOULD STAY AWARE OF THESE CONDITIONS SETTING UP
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY, AND POTENTIALLY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS
WELL.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH OR EXCEED RECORDS NEXT WEEK. WE
MIGHT COME UP A FEW DEGREES SHORT OF RECORDS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY,
BUT HIGHS IN THE RANGE OF 85 TO 90 WILL BE FORECAST FOR THE TN
VALLEY TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. GIVEN THE DRY GROUND CONDITIONS,
IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING TO SEE TEMPERATURES HIGHER THAN THAT,
AS MODEL GUIDANCE MAY BE UNDERDOING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES.
DAILY RECORD HIGH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
DATE CHATTANOOGA KNOXVILLE TRI-CITIES OAK RIDGE
04-12 89(1887) 87(1930) 84(1945) 87(1948)
04-13 88(1887) 89(1887) 86(1981) 86(2017)
04-14 87(2010) 86(1887) 85(1938) 88(2017)
04-15 87(2006) 87(1936) 85(1945) 86(2024)
04-16 89(2002) 87(1896) 87(2002) 88(2002)
04-17 91(1955) 90(1896) 85(2002) 88(1955)
04-18 90(2002) 90(1896) 87(2002) 89(2002)
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 725 PM EDT SAT APR 11 2026
VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. ISOLD SHRA
INVOF KTRI ARE WANING QUICKLY AT THE MOMENT AND SHOULD BE GONE BY
THE TIME THE 00Z TAFS ARE VALID. DON'T SEE ANY SHRA POTENTIAL
TOMORROW AT ANY SITES AS INSTABILITY WILL BE MORE LIMITED. WINDS
WILL PICK UP HOWEVER AS PRESSURE GRADIENTS AND OVERALL WIND FIELD
STRENGTHEN. HAVE GUSTS TO 20KT IN AT BOTH KTYS AND KCHA.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 53 87 60 85 / 0 0 0 0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 53 85 60 83 / 0 0 0 0
OAK RIDGE, TN 52 85 58 83 / 0 0 0 10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 49 82 55 81 / 0 0 0 10
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DGS
AVIATION...CD
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