258
FXUS64 KMRX 102321 AAA
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
721 PM EDT TUE MAR 10 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 718 PM EDT TUE MAR 10 2026
- WARM THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
AGAIN. BREEZY CONDITIONS AREAWIDE.
- CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURN WEDNESDAY EVENING. SOME
STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE CUMBERLAND
PLATEAU.
- COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS AREA-WIDE THURSDAY. THEN, ANOTHER
WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE IN BY LATE SUNDAY
OR SUNDAY NIGHT, FOLLOWED BY A SURGE OF MUCH COLDER AIR.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 221 PM EDT TUE MAR 10 2026
A FEW SHOWERS ARE AROUND THIS AFTERNOON AND THERE STILL COULD BE
A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER, ALTHOUGH MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE DRY THIS
AFTERNOON. THE VERY WARM CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY AND TOMORROW.
SOME RECORDS WILL LIKELY BE APPROACHED OR EXCEEDED WEDNESDAY.
DAILY RECORD HIGH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY:
DATE CHATTANOOGA KNOXVILLE TRI-CITIES OAK RIDGE
03-11 81(2006) 81(2006) 78(2006) 80(1990)
A WEAK IMPULSE COMBINED WITH MODEST LINGERING ELEVATED INSTABILITY
MAY BRUSH MAINLY OUR NORTHERN AND WESTERN HALF WITH A FEW SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT. ON WEDNESDAY, A ROBUST LOW‑LEVEL JET
AND AN EXPANSIVE WARM SECTOR WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND COLD FRONT. THIS SETUP
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THE LOW END SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR OUR
AREA HIGHLIGHTED IN RECENT OUTLOOKS. BREEZY WINDS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WITH MOST AREAS SEEING WINDS GUST AT LEAST INTO THE 20
TO 30 MPH RANGE, WITH SOME SPOTS INCLUDING THE HIGHER EAST TN
MOUNTAINS GUSTING FROM 30 TO 40 MPH.
MOST MODELS STILL SHOW A WEAKENING QLCS SWEEPING THROUGH THE REGION
SOMETIME DURING WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH THE
TIMING LIKELY NEAR OR AFTER SUNSET, THIS WILL HELP TO DAMPEN OUR
OVERALL SEVERE THREAT AS INSTABILITY WILL BE ON THE WEAKER SIDE.
LATEST MODEL DATA SUGGESTS MLCAPE VALUES WILL BE LIMITED (GENERALLY
IN THE 250 TO 500 J/KG RANGE) AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SHEAR WILL BE
SUFFICIENT TO SUGGESTS A LOW END TORNADO CONCERN WHICH WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON INSTABILITY, SO IF WE DO MAINTAIN ENOUGH SURFACED-BASED
INSTABILITY THEN THERE WILL BE A LOW RISK FOR A BRIEF TORNADO. AS OF
NOW, THE MAIN THREAT APPEARS TO BE DAMAGING WINDS AS ANY STRONGER
STORMS COULD BRING HIGHER WINDS DOWN TO THE SURFACE. IF WE DO SEE
ANY SEVERE STORMS, AREAS WEST OF I-75 WILL HAVE THE BETTER CHANCES
DUE TO EARLIER ARRIVAL TIME/MORE AVAILABLE CAPE.
THE RAIN WILL BE ENDING EARLY THURSDAY, AND THERE MAY BE A FEW
SNOWFLAKES MIXING IN OVER THE HIGHEST MOUNTAINS BEFORE THE
PRECIPITATION ENDS AS COLDER AND DRIER AIR PUSHES IN BEHIND THE
FRONT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR A CHANGE,
TOPPING OUT IN THE 50S IN MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS.
THE COOLDOWN WILL BE BRIEF AS THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES TO OUR EAST
AND LOW LEVEL FLOW AGAIN TURNS MORE SOUTHERLY FRIDAY. HIGHS FRIDAY
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S ACROSS THE VALLEY. THE WARMING TREND
WILL THEN CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S COMMON
BOTH DAYS.
WHILE THE DETAILS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN THAT FAR OUT, MODELS INDICATE
ANOTHER DEEP TROUGH AND A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING IN
SOMETIME AROUND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS. THIS SYSTEM WILL BEAR WATCHING FOR POSSIBLE MOUNTAIN WAVE
WINDS DEPENDING ON THE LOW LEVEL JET ORIENTATION AS WELL AS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL LIKELY BE
SIGNIFICANT BUT OF COURSE RIGHT NOW THERE ARE QUESTIONS ABOUT HOW
MUCH INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT (WHICH WILL ALSO DEPEND PARTIALLY
ON TIMING). CURRENT LREF DATA SUGGESTS A VERY LOW CHANCE (AROUND 10%
TO 20%) OF 30+ KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR COMBINING WITH 500+ J/KG OF
CAPE AHEAD OF THE FRONT, BUT OF COURSE CAPE IS OFTEN UNDERFORECAST
THIS FAR OUT.
DRIER AND SHARPLY COLDER AIR WILL PUSH IN BEHIND THIS FRONT FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL TO END OUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 718 PM EDT TUE MAR 10 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AT ALL
SITES, THEN CHA IS EXPECTED TO HAVE INCREASING LOW CLOUDS,
DROPPING TO MVFR LEVELS AROUND 09-10Z. THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE MORNING, THEN LIFT TO LOW VFR IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS AT ALL
SITES WILL BE GUSTY TOMORROW FROM THE SW, WITH TYS HAVING GUSTS
AROUND 30 KT AT TIMES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 65 81 45 58 / 20 20 100 20
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 64 80 43 53 / 30 20 100 20
OAK RIDGE, TN 64 79 42 55 / 30 20 100 20
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 59 80 40 50 / 20 20 100 40
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...DGS
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