213
FXUS64 KMRX 200556
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1256 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1236 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2025
- LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
- UNUSUALLY WARM TEMPERATURES FOR CHRISTMAS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1236 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2025
MILD AND MAINLY DRY WEEK CULMINATING IN AN UNUSUALLY WARM CHRISTMAS
THIS YEAR. TODAY WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER, WITH STRONG RETURN FLOW
BRINGING A MILD AIRMASS BACK INTO THE REGION OUT AHEAD OF A DRY
COLD FRONT. FRONT WILL PASS BY ON SUNDAY, WITH ZERO RAINFALL
EXPECTED.
A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE GULF WILL BE THE MAIN SYNOPTIC FEATURE
NEXT WEEK, WITH ONLY LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES OF RAIN TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE AND FRONT RIDING THE TOP OF
THE RIDGE TRY TO BRING RAIN TO THE AREA BEFORE THE UPPER RIDGE
STRENGTHENS AGAIN. BY CHRISTMAS DAY, THE 500MB RIDGE HEIGHTS WILL
BE NEAR RECORD HEIGHTS, AND THE 850 RIDGE HEIGHTS WILL BE ABOVE
THE 90TH PERCENTILE, WITH 850 TEMPERATURES ON THE LREF ENSEMBLE
MEAN ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE STRENGTH AS WELL. ALL THIS TO SAY
IT WILL BE AN UNUSUALLY WARM CHRISTMAS THIS YEAR. OTHER THAN SANTA
NOT NEEDING A COAT, NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IMPACTS ARE FORECAST,
WITH GENERALLY BENIGN WEATHER THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1236 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2025
VFR TAFS THIS PERIOD WITH POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SW GUSTS AT TYS IN THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. STRONG WIND FLOW ALOFT WILL INDUCE A PERIOD OF LLWS
LATE, ON APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT LATER ON SUNDAY. NO PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 59 40 58 34 / 0 10 10 0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 57 38 54 30 / 0 10 10 0
OAK RIDGE, TN 55 38 54 30 / 0 10 10 0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 56 33 50 24 / 0 0 10 0
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...WELLINGTON
AVIATION...WELLINGTON
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page