867
FXUS64 KMRX 261741
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
141 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 134 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2026
- NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ANTICIPATED EARLY TUESDAY, WITH
LOW POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS.
- AN ADDITIONAL ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. WHILE CHANCES FOR SEVERE STORMS ARE SLIGHTLY
HIGHER THAN MONDAY NIGHT, THE OVERALL LIKELIHOOD OF SEVERE
STORMS REMAINS LOW.
- LOW RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND, WITH COOLER WEATHER
ARRIVING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 134 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2026
THE MAIN TAKEAWAY FOR THE COMING WEEK IS THAT WE ARE LIKELY TO SEE
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF WIDESPREAD, AND MUCH NEEDED, RAINFALL ACROSS THE
ENTIRETY OF THE NWS MORRISTOWN FORECAST AREA. THERE COULD ALSO BE
SOME CHANCES FOR SOME SEVERE STORMS MIXED IN, MAINLY TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW OVERALL.
AN UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST ON MONDAY, DRAGGING A FRONT TOWARDS EAST
TENNESSEE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE ARRIVE IN OUR CWA AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK
TUESDAY MORNING. I DON'T BELIEVE THERE TO BE MUCH SUPPORT FOR ANY
SEVERE STORMS WITH THIS ACTIVITY. DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL SOUNDING
YOU LOOK AT, THERE'S SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY THAT COULD SUPPORT
THUNDER AND POSSIBLY SOME SMALL HAIL. BUT THAT IS ABOUT IT,
AND THERE'S A SUBSTANTIAL LOW LEVEL INVERSION IN PLACE SO SURFACE-
BASED CONVECTION SEEMS HIGHLY UNLIKELY AND THUS NEGATES ANY NOTABLE
THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS OR OTHER HAZARDS.
THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL STALL OUT JUST TO OUR WEST ON TUESDAY.
HOWEVER IT WILL EVENTUALLY BE PUSHED THROUGH OUR CWA EARLY WEDNESDAY
BY A TRAILING UPPER DISTURBANCE THAT MOVES THROUGH THE GREATER
TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY IN THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BE AIDED BY A STRENGTHENING
SUBTROPICAL JET OVER THE I-40 CORRIDOR BETWEEN ARKANSAS AND NEW
MEXICO, FIRING OFF ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION ACROSS MIDDLE
TENNESSEE TUESDAY NIGHT THAT WILL PUSH INTO OUR FORECAST AREA
DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY. ONCE AGAIN THE EARLY MORNING
HOUR ARRIVAL TIME DOESN'T FAVOR SEVERE CHANCES OVERALL. HOWEVER THE
LOW LEVEL INVERSION IS MUCH WEAKER TUE NIGHT AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS
DO SHOW BETTER SHEAR AND SLIGHTLY MORE INSTABILITY, INCLUDING SOME
NOTEWORTHY DCAPE ON THE ORDER OF A FEW HUNDRED J/KG IN THE
CHATTANOOGA AREA. THE CURRENT SPC DAY 3 OUTLOOK HAS A SLIGHT RISK
AREA THAT EXTENDS EAST INTO OUR CUMBERLAND PLATEAU AREAS AND PARTS
OF THE SOUTHERN TN VALLEY IN EAST TENNESSEE. DESPITE THE OVERNIGHT
ARRIVAL THIS SEEMS REASONABLE, WITH MODELS FAVORING A DAMAGING WIND
THREAT SHOULD ANY SEVERE STORMS OCCUR.
BEHIND THE FRONT, COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE ON TAP THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES COULD DROP LOW ENOUGH FOR THERE TO BE SOME
FROST POTENTIAL BY NEXT WEEKEND IN OUR FAR NORTHEAST TENNESSEE AND
SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA COUNTIES. IT IS POSSIBLE WE SEE ANOTHER
ROUND OF RAIN NEXT WEEKEND, BUT THERE IS A HIGH DEGREE OF
UNCERTAINTY THERE.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 134 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2026
ALL SITES SHOULD SEE A RETURN TO VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES IN THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO, EITHER BY CIGS LIFTING OR SCATTERING OUT. BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON SKC TO FEW250 SHOULD BE THE RULE. NO FOG OR LOW CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TONIGHT. WITH REGARDS TO WINDS, EXPECT GUSTY WINDS TO
AROUND 15KT TO CONTINUE AT KTYS FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS
BEFORE GRADIENTS RELAX. OTHERWISE, LIGHT AND VARIABLE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AT KTYS AND KTRI. SIMILAR CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN AT KCHA
BUT HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF THE APPALCHIANS WILL SWITCH THE WINDS TO A
SUSTAINED SELY DIRECTION LATER TONIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 58 81 60 77 / 0 0 60 70
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 54 83 57 75 / 0 0 60 70
OAK RIDGE, TN 54 82 57 75 / 0 0 70 80
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 48 80 52 72 / 0 0 40 70
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CD
AVIATION...CD
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