459
FXUS64 KMRX 221120
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
720 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 701 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2026
- MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS WITH SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH SATURDAY. THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH STORMS BOTH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WILL BE STRONG WIND GUSTS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
-GUSTY WINDS IN THE SOME OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND FOOTHILLS
FRIDAY AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY NIGHT.
- A WET WEATHER PATTERN PERSISTS THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 129 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2026
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING GULF MOISTURE
INTO OUR AREA AS WE MOVE INTO THE WEEKEND. THE WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY JUST TO OUR NORTH AND WEST WILL VACILLATE BUT WILL BE SLOW
TO MAKE MUCH PROGRESS THROUGH SATURDAY. IN ADDITION, WEAK SHORT WAVE
IMPULSES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AND AGAIN SATURDAY. GIVEN
THE ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE, WE WILL SEE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE ENOUGH
FOR SHEAR TO BE A CONCERN BOTH DAYS BUT ESPECIALLY FRIDAY. THE
SEVERE THREAT WILL BE CONTINGENT ON IF ENOUGH CONVECTIVE ENERGY IS
ABLE TO DEVELOP, AND THE TIMING AND COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION DURING
THE DAY COULD INHIBIT DIURNAL HEATING ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THESE
DETAILS IS STILL LACKING. FOR NOW, HREF ENSEMBLE MEAN SBCAPE VALUES
EXCEED 1000 J/KG OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHWESTERN TWO THIRDS OF OUR
AREA FRIDAY, AND THE MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING
WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT FOR FRIDAY REMAINS. A FEW STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS MAY OCCUR SATURDAY AS WELL WITH STRONG
WINDS AGAIN THE PRIMARY THREAT. IN ADDITION, HEAVY RAINFALL MAY
CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING ESPECIALLY IF REPEATED HEAVY DOWNPOURS
OCCUR OVER ANY GIVEN LOCATION.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE NC/TN BORDER FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE RIDGING NOSES DOWN EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS
AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS BY TO OUR WEST. MODELS GENERALLY
SHOW SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS INCREASING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH
850MB WINDS REACHING THE 25 TO 40 KT RANGE FOR A BRIEF TIME TONIGHT.
MOUNTAIN WAVE ENHANCEMENT OF THE WINDS WILL LIKELY BRING GUSTY WINDS
TO THE USUAL HIGHER ELEVATION AND FOOTHILL LOCATIONS OF THE E TN
MOUNTAIN. IT STILL LOOKS MARGINAL FOR A WIND ADVISORY SO NONE WILL
BE ISSUED AS YET, BUT IT WILL BEAR WATCHING ESPECIALLY FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT.
FOR SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, A WET PATTERN WILL CONTINUE AS THE DEEP
S TO SW FLOW REMAINS OVER THE REGION. TIMING OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL DEPEND ON DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW AND SURFACE BOUNDARIES IN
THE AREA, WHICH ARE DIFFICULT TO RESOLVE AT THIS TIME. HIGH POPS
WITH LOW TO MODERATE CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR TO BE WARRANTED
IN THIS PATTERN.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 701 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2026
WAVES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
THROUGHOUT THIS TAF CYCLE. CIGS ARE A MIX OF IFR, MVFR AND VFR
ACROSS THE REGION. CIGS WILL KEEP LOWERING THIS MORNING,
REMAINING MVFR THROUGH THE DAY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDER AT ALL
SITES WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT THUNDER WILL BE
POSSIBLE ANYTIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 78 65 82 65 / 100 70 90 60
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 79 65 81 64 / 90 90 100 50
OAK RIDGE, TN 77 63 80 62 / 100 80 100 60
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 77 61 80 61 / 90 80 100 60
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...99
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