322
FXUS64 KMRX 091054 AAA
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
654 AM EDT SAT MAY 9 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 626 AM EDT SAT MAY 9 2026
- MOSTLY DRY WEEKEND, WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH
A COLD FRONT LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. NOT EXPECTING STRONG OR
EVEN SEVERE STORMS.
- ANOTHER POTENTIAL FRONTAL PASSAGE BRINGS A CHANCE OF RAIN
AROUND MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.
- POSSIBLE PATCHY FROST FOR PARTS OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA TUESDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 104 AM EDT SAT MAY 9 2026
THE FORECAST PERIOD THROUGH NEXT WEEK CAN BE CHARACTERIZED BY
LONGWAVE TROUGHING DOMINATING THE EAST AND RIDGING LOCKED TO THE
WEST. TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD THOUGH, SYNOPTICS
APPEAR TO CHANGE WITH RIDGING MOVING BACK IN FROM THE WEST. JUST
OUTSIDE OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, TEMPERATURES POTENTIALLY WARMING
ABOVE NORMAL AT THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEKEND. FOR THE FORECAST
PERIOD, OUR AREA WILL GENERALLY EXHIBIT QUASIZONAL TO NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW. IT'LL BE MOSTLY DRY TODAY WITH A VERY LOW OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A
SHOWER FOR THE SOUTHERN CWA THIS MORNING AND SW VIRGINIA THIS
AFTERNOON.
AFTER A BRIEF RECOVERY OF TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND, A COLD
FRONT WILL BARREL THROUGH SOMETIME EARLY MONDAY. THIS LOOKS LIKE
JUST A LOW-END RAINFALL WITH MAYBE A QUARTER OF AN INCH, AT BEST.
QPF TRENDS HAVE TURNED DOWNWARD. SOME MAY NOT EVEN SEE RAINFALL AT
ALL. THE ONLY REAL THING GOING FOR THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE BULK
SHEAR IN PLACE, EVERYTHING ELSE IS EITHER TOO WEAK OR NON-EXISTENT
FOR ANY STRONG TO SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL. WE WON'T REALLY GET MUCH
MOISTURE RETURN BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF THE SYSTEM AND THE TIMING
DOESN'T REALLY ALLOW ANYTHING SURFACE BASED. THE AREA WITH THE BEST
CHANCE OF THUNDER WILL BE THE SOUTHERN PLATEAU AND VALLEY, CLOSER TO
THE BETTER DYNAMICS, AS DEPICTED BY THE SPC OUTLOOK.
TEMPERATURES MARKEDLY COOLER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING. PARTS OF
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND SW VIRGINIA MAY
SEE POSSIBLE FROST TUESDAY MORNING, WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST
TO BE IN THE UPPER 30S SO FAR. AN ELEMENT THAT MAY WORK AGAINST IT
WILL BE WINDS POSSIBLY STILL COMING DOWN FROM SOMEWHAT BREEZY
NORTHERLY WINDS EARLIER IN THE DAY MONDAY.
MUCH OF THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL BE DRY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING
TUESDAY AND AFTERWARD. ALTHOUGH, A LOW PRESSURE CENTER UNDER A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRAVERSING FROM CENTRAL CANADA, MAY BRING SOME
LIGHT RAIN TO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AROUND MID TO LATE WEEK.
DRY AFTER WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND A RIDGE ON OUR DOORSTEP FROM
THE WEST.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 626 AM EDT SAT MAY 9 2026
CLOUDS AT CHA WILL BE NEAR THE MVFR/VFR MARGINS THIS MORNING, BUT
ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT/SCATTER BY THE AFTERNOON. SOME BROKEN VFR
CIGS WILL BE AROUND TYS AND TRI TODAY, WITH WINDS AROUND 10 KT.
MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT/CALM WINDS WILL RETURN TONIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 80 57 84 60 / 0 0 10 40
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 77 55 82 57 / 0 0 0 50
OAK RIDGE, TN 78 53 82 56 / 10 0 0 60
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 74 50 79 53 / 0 0 0 50
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KS
AVIATION...DGS
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