135
FXUS64 KMRX 211137
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
737 AM EDT TUE APR 21 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 732 AM EDT TUE APR 21 2026
- AFTER A COOL MORNING, A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED WITH DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.
- SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW STORMS ARE INCREASINGLY LIKELY THIS
WEEKEND WITH SATURDAY HAVING THE BEST CHANCES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 233 AM EDT TUE APR 21 2026
CURRENTLY, MID/UPPER TROUGHING HAS PUSHED OFF INTO THE ATLANTIC WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS HAS LED TO ANOTHER DRY
AND SEASONALLY COOL MORNING WITH PATCHY FROST IN NORTHEAST TENNESSEE
AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. THROUGHOUT THE DAY, TROUGHING WILL LIFT
FURTHER EAST, LEADING TO HEIGHT RISES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES THAN
YESTERDAY. LOW RH'S ARE EXPECTED AGAIN, BUT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
SLIGHTLY INCREASE MOISTURE. ON WEDNESDAY, A VERY WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL
PASS TO OUR NORTHEAST, BRINGING LOW-END RAIN CHANCES CLOSE TO
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. HOWEVER, OUR AREA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY WITH
SIMILARLY MILD TEMPERATURES.
BY THURSDAY, A TROUGH AND DEEPENING SURFACE LOW WILL EJECT OUT OF
THE ROCKIES LEADING TO INCREASING RIDGING AND SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE
EASTERN U.S. OUR AREA WILL REMAIN DRY DURING THIS TIME WITH MOST
PLACES RISING INTO THE 80S. THE RIDGE BECOMES MORE SUPPRESSED ON
FRIDAY, BUT CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURES
FURTHER INTO THE 80S. ON SATURDAY, A SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH MOISTURE HAVING INCREASED
FURTHER. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME STORMS ARE INCREASINGLY LIKELY
ACROSS THE AREA. OVERALL, WINDS ALOFT REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT, BUT
INSTABILITY COULD MAYBE SUPPORT SOME STRONGER STORMS AS INDICATED BY
THE CIPS ANALOGS. HOPEFULLY, THIS PROVIDES SOME NEEDED RAINFALL AS
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA IS ANYWHERE FROM 4 TO 8 INCHES BELOW
NORMAL FOR THE YEAR SO FAR. BY SUNDAY, MODELS DIFFER ON HOW MUCH
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN THE REGION, SO RAIN CHANCES ARE LESSENED.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 732 AM EDT TUE APR 21 2026
VFR AND DRY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH LIGHT WINDS
DEVELOPING OUT OF THE SW LATER TODAY. CLEAR SKIES AT THIS TIME MAY
LEAD TO MID TO HIGH CLOUDS DURING THE DAY. INCREASING LOW-LEVEL
WINDS TONIGHT COULD BRING THE POSSIBILITY OF LLWS TO TRI. WILL
EVALUATE IF TYS WILL NEED AS WELL.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 81 54 83 55 / 0 0 0 0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 77 52 80 53 / 0 0 0 0
OAK RIDGE, TN 77 50 81 53 / 0 0 0 0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 72 47 77 49 / 0 0 0 0
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION...KS
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