097
FXUS64 KMRX 222041
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
341 PM EST WED JAN 22 2020
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND RIDGING ALOFT WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS DRY OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THURSDAY.
LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD BE A BIT WARMER THEN PREVIOUS NIGHTS WITH
LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE ALOFT WILL
TRAVEL THROUGH CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WITH TWO AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. ISENTROPIC ASCENT IN THE
305-295K LAYER WILL INCREASE ON THURSDAY LEADING TO A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION MAINLY AFTER 12-15Z. WITH THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH STILL ACROSS MUCH OF THE MIDSOUTH AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER THE BETTER FORCING WILL REMAIN WEST WHICH SHOULD KEEP MUCH
OF THE PRECIPITATION ON THE LIGHTER SIDE UNTIL THIS FORCING
APPROACHES CLOSER. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL RISE INTO THE MID 40S
TO NEAR 50.
DIEGAN
LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
BY THURSDAY EVENING A STRONG FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE
SOUTHWEST IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG DISTURBANCE OVER SOUTHERN IOWA AND
NORTHERN MISSOURI. WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT, A 40-60KT LOW LEVEL
JET WILL TRAVERSE THE MOUNTAINOUS REGION, WITH THE FLOW ORIENTED
FAVORABLY TO SUPPORT A MOUNTAIN WAVE EVENTS. THIS EVENT LOOKS FAIRLY
IMPRESSIVE, WITH THE JET NEARLY PERFECTLY ALIGNED PERPENDICULAR TO
THE MOUNTAIN RANGE. GIVEN EVEN THE LOW END OF FORECAST WINDS IS
SUPPORTIVE OF MARGINAL HIGH WINDS, FEEL IT IS WARRANTED TO GO AHEAD
AN ISSUE A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THE EAST TENNESSEE MOUNTAINS.
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM, FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING,
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL COOL ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME SNOW MIXING DOWN
INTO THE MOUNTAINS. THE PROBLEM IS THAT THE SATURATED LAYER WILL NOT
EXTEND UP INTO THE DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH REGION BY SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT. THUS IT WILL BE MOSTLY A NORTHWEST FLOW
EVENT, WITH ACCUMULATIONS LIMITED TO MAINLY THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
AROUND 3,500 FT AND HIGHER. CURRENTLY ONLY HAVE PERHAPS 1-3 INCHES
IN THE FORECAST FOR THOSE AREAS AS MOISTURE BECOMES LIMITED VERY
QUICKLY.
BEYOND SATURDAY MORNING, IT LOOKS LIKE A RELATIVELY DRY FORECAST.
THERE IS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE THAT COMES THROUGH LATE SUNDAY, BUT IT
LOOKS FAR ENOUGH SOUTH THAT ANY PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH IT
WILL ALSO WIND UP TO OUR SOUTH, SO KEPT A DRY FORECAST FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT SYSTEM LOOKS TO ARRIVE
ON WEDNESDAY.
CD
AVIATION
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE TONIGHT AND ON THURSDAY
WITH LOWERING VFR CIGS. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
DIEGAN
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 34 47 41 51 37 / 0 60 80 80 10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 31 48 40 50 37 / 0 20 60 80 10
OAK RIDGE, TN 30 47 38 49 36 / 0 30 80 80 20
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 28 51 36 50 35 / 0 10 30 90 20
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FOR BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-
JOHNSON-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST
GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-UNICOI.
VA...NONE.
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