512  
FXUS64 KMRX 102327  
AFDMRX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN  
727 PM EDT THU JUL 10 2025  
   
..NEW AVIATION  
 
   
SHORT TERM  
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)  
ISSUED AT 1246 PM EDT THU JUL 10 2025  
 
KEY MESSAGES:  
 
1. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY NEAR  
THE TN/NC MOUNTAINS AND ACROSS SOUTHEAST TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWEST  
NORTH CAROLINA.  
 
2. PATCHY FOG TONIGHT WHERE RAINFALL OCCURS THIS AFTERNOON.  
 
3. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY, BUT AREA-WIDE, MUCH DRIER  
AND LOWER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  
 
DISCUSSION:  
 
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS AND VORT MAX IS CURRENTLY STRETCHING  
SW/NE ACROSS THE REGION FROM NEAR WISE COUNTY, THROUGH OAK RIDGE,  
AND BACK TOWARDS MONTEAGLE. NEAR THIS AXIS AND TO THE EAST, MORE  
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING. THE BEST  
MOISTURE AND MOST WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST  
TO BE ACROSS SOUTHEAST TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA,  
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS, AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA.  
DRIER, MORE ISOLATED CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE  
KNOXVILLE AND CENTRAL VALLEY AREA.  
 
RAP AND CAMS INDICATE THIS VORT MAX WILL TRACK EASTWARD AND BE  
NEAR THE TN/NC STATE LINE BY 21Z WITH SUBSIDENCE LIMITING  
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE ON THE WEST SIDE OF THIS FEATURE. RAP FORECAST  
SOUNDINGS INDICATE MLCAPE OF 1000 TO 1500 J/KG WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS  
AROUND 2000 J/KG POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST TENNESSEE WHERE  
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE IS HIGHER. PW VALUES ARE ALSO AROUND 2.0  
INCHES IN THIS AREA. THIS WILL BE THE AREA MOST LIKELY TO SEE  
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON WITH HEAVY RAIN RATES AND  
GUSTY WINDS.  
 
DIURNAL CONVECTION DECREASES IN COVERAGE AFTER 03Z WITH DRIER  
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP WHERE  
RAINFALL OCCURRED, ESPECIALLY WITH MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE CLEARING  
OUT HIGHER CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING.  
 
ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED AGAIN ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON,  
BUT WITH WEAK SUBSIDENCE AND LIMITED SYNOPTIC SUPPORT FOR  
CONVECTION, COVERAGE AND INTENSITY IS FORECAST TO BE LIMITED.  
 
 
   
LONG TERM  
 
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)  
ISSUED AT 1246 PM EDT THU JUL 10 2025  
 
KEY MESSAGES:  
 
1. DIURNAL CONVECTION CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND, MAINLY ACROSS  
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.  
 
2. UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND BRINGS  
INCREASING CHANCES OF SCATTERED CONVECTION LATE SUNDAY AND  
MONDAY.  
 
3. HEAT BUILDS NEXT WEEK AS UPPER RIDGE RETROGRADES ACROSS THE  
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MOSTLY DRY WITH DIURNAL CONVECTION.  
 
4. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE FEATURE MAY BRING MORE WIDESPREAD SCATTERED  
CONVECTION TO THE AREA LATE NEXT WEEK.  
 
DISCUSSION:  
 
DIURNAL CONVECTION CONTINUES EACH DAY WITH SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND MORE  
LIMITED COVERAGE ACROSS THE VALLEY. IT WILL BE HOT AND HUMID EACH  
DAY WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.  
 
A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY LATE  
SUNDAY WHICH WILL INCREASE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AHEAD OF THIS  
FEATURE. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASED COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS  
LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY ACROSS THE AREA. SEVERE WEATHER RISK IS LOW  
WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS, AND INTENSITY WILL LIKELY DEPEND ON  
TIMING. AFTERNOON MLCAPE WILL BE BETWEEN 1000-2000 J/KG, BUT  
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WILL DECREASE AFTER SUNSET.  
 
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL RETROGRADE ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY  
PLACING THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WITHIN A REGION OF HOT, ABOVE NORMAL  
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS RIDGE INFLUENCE  
WILL ALSO LIMIT CONVECTION WITH ONLY ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION  
ANTICIPATED EACH DAY, MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATION.  
 
A STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH THE OHIO VALLEY BY LATE WEEK  
WITH INCREASED CHANCES OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS  
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. MLCAPE WILL BE 1000 TO 2000 J/KG WITH  
GENERALLY WEAK SHEAR. AS WITH MOST THUNDERSTORMS THIS TIME OF  
YEAR, THE ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS AND  
HEAVY RAIN RATES WITH THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS.  
 
 
   
AVIATION  
 
(00Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 724 PM EDT THU JUL 10 2025  
 
LOW CONFIDENCE ON HOW WIDESPREAD FOG WILL BE OVERNIGHT, SO  
MAINTAINED VICINITY GROUPS. FOG MAY BE MODERATED IN PART BY MVFR  
CLOUDS, OTHERWISE PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK WINDS.  
TOMORROW, ANOTHER DAY OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND TS, WITH STORMS  
BEGINNING ON THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON,  
PROGRESSING INTO THE VALLEYS WITH TIME. OUTSIDE OF A TS, VFR  
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER 14Z WITH LIGHT WINDS.  
 
 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS  
 
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 71 91 72 92 / 20 50 10 50  
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 71 89 71 92 / 20 40 10 40  
OAK RIDGE, TN 70 89 70 91 / 10 40 10 50  
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 67 87 68 89 / 10 40 20 50  
 
 
   
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
NC...NONE.  
TN...NONE.  
VA...NONE.  
 
 
 
 
SHORT TERM...JB  
LONG TERM....JB  
AVIATION...WELLINGTON  
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