339
FXUS64 KMRX 112318
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
618 PM EST SUN JAN 11 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 616 PM EST SUN JAN 11 2026
-SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST TENNESSEE AND
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
- GUSTY WINDS, ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN TODAY. SEE WIND
ADVISORY. TEENS AND SINGLE DIGIT WIND CHILLS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY.
- ACCUMULATING MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL EVENT POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. POTENTIAL WEEKEND SYSTEM HIGH UNCERTAINTY AND LOW
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1249 PM EST SUN JAN 11 2026
CURRENTLY A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ARE MOVING NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
ACROSS MAINLY NORTHEAST TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. THESE
SHOWERS ARE PRODUCING QUICK BURSTS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW FOR
SEVERAL MINUTES BEFORE QUICKLY MOVING OUT, EVEN WITH TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID TO UPPER 30'S. IT'S STRONG ENOUGH TO CAUSE A DUSTING OF SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS, ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTHERN
PLATEAU, BUT ONCE THE SNOW SHOWER MOVES OUT ANYTHING ON THE GROUND
QUICKLY BEGINS TO MELT. EXPECT THESE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF
RETURNS BACK INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY THAT STILL NEED TO
WORK THEIR WAY EASTWARD.
IN ADDITION THE WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST ARE GUSTING PRETTY GOOD
IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITH NUMEROUS PLACES LIKELY SEEING 30-40MPH
GUSTS. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE EAST TENNESSEE
MOUNTAINS, ESPECIALLY WITH WINDS GETTING ENHANCED BY THE SNOW
SHOWERS WE'LL LIKELY SEE PERIODS JUST ABOVE ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS.
QUIET WEATHER AND A QUICK WARM UP TO START THE WORK WEEK WITH HIGHS
CLIMBING BACK INTO THE 50'S FOR MUCH OF THE VALLEY BY TUESDAY. FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH PRECIPITATION. EXPECT THE
PRECIPITATION TO START AS RAIN FOR MOST, AND TEMPERATURES WILL DROP
OVERNIGHT AND WE SWITCH OVER TO SNOW.
WON'T GET TOO IN THE WEEDS WITH MODEL DIAGNOSTICS AND SNOW AMOUNTS
BECAUSE THE ONE CONSISTENT THING WITH THIS UPCOMING
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY SYSTEM IS THAT THE LONG RANGE DETERMINISTIC
MODELS DO NOT HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON IT AT ALL... WHICH IS TO BE
EXPECTED IN A NORTHWEST FLOW EVENT THAT CAN DRASTICALLY CHANGE BASED
ON TEMP/MOISTURE AVAILABILITY/FORCING/ETC. IT WOULD BE A FOOLS
ERRAND TO PICK YOUR FAVORITE DETERMINISTIC MODEL THAT SHOWS 6" OF
SNOW IN THE CENTRAL VALLEY, OR (ON THE OPPOSITE END) THE MODEL THAT
SHOWS NO SNOW IN THE VALLEY AND JUST A DUSTING IN THE
APPALACHIANS... AND EXPECT THEM TO VERIFY. IN NORTHWEST FLOW SNOW
EVENTS IT'S A GOOD IDEA TO WAIT UNTIL THE HIGHER RESOLUTION SHORT
TERM MODELS AND HOURLY MODELS START TO INGEST THE UPCOMING EVENT.
THIS FAR OUT A LOOK AT THE PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE IS PROBABLY OF MORE
USE. THE 90/95TH PERCENTILE SHOWS SOME VERY EXTREME AMOUNTS, BUT IF
YOU LOOK AT THE MEAN/MEDIAN AND THE 25-75TH PERCENTILES A MORE
TRADITIONAL NORTHWEST FLOW EVENT IS THE COMMON SENTIMENT. FOR
EXAMPLE (DO NOT TAKE THESE VALUES AS A FORECAST) FOR KNOXVILLE SOME
OF THE DETERMINISTIC DATA SHOWS 5+ INCHES OF SNOW, BUT THE
MEDIAN/MEAN AND BOX AND WHISKERS DATA POINTS TO A 0.5-2" EVENT,
WHICH ALIGNS MORE CLOSELY TO WHAT TYPICALLY HAPPENS IN A NORTHWEST
SNOW EVENT. ALSO WORTH KEEPING AN EYE ON IS THE TIMING OF THE
TRANSITION TO SNOW AND THE BEST FORCING. IF YOU WANT ACCUMULATING
SNOW IN THE VALLEY YOU TRADITIONALLY WANT YOUR BEST FORCING AND
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION TO OCCUR OVERNIGHT AS DURING THE DAYTIME THE
SUN REALLY LIMITS HOW PRODUCTIVE THE CLOUDS ARE AT ICE NUCLEATION.
SO LONG STORY SHORT WITH WHAT MIGHT OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. LOW CONFIDENCE IN SNOW AMOUNTS (DON'T BELIEVE JUST A
SINGLE MODEL) HIGH CONFIDENCE SNOW WILL OCCUR SOMEWHERE WITH THE
CUMBERLAND PLATEAU, SOUTHWEST VA, AND ESPECIALLY THE EAST TENNESSE
MOUNTAINS HAVING THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE ACCUMULATIONS. IF YOU HAVE
TRAVEL PLANS THAT INVOLVE GOING OVER THE APPALACHIANS OR THE
CUMBERLAND PLATEAU PLAN ON POSSIBLE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ON THE ROAD.
GOOD NEWS IS THIS EVENT LOOKS TO BE A CLEAN TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO
SNOW, AND HOPEFULLY KEEPING THE GROSS ICY STUFF TO A VERY SHORT
WINDOW AND ANY ICE IMPACTS MINIMAL. BEST THING TO DO RIGHT NOW IS
PAY ATTENTION TO THE FORECAST UPDATES AS THE MODELS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE TO OSCILLATE WILDLY IN SNOW POTENTIAL, AND CONFIDENCE
SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE WHEN WE'RE ABOUT 72 HOURS AND HIGHER
RESOLUTION MODELS AND HOURLY MODELS START TO COME INTO PLAY.
AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND COLD TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN PLACE WITH
YET ANOTHER POSSIBLE SNOW MAKER LOOKING TO MOVE THROUGH SOMEWHERE
OVER THE EASTERN US. IF YOU THOUGHT MODELS WERE HANDLING
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY POORLY THEN YOU DON'T EVEN WANT TO GLANCE AT THE
WEEKEND. A LOT OF WHAT MIGHT HAPPEN SATURDAY/SUNDAY WILL DEPEND ON
WHAT HAPPENS WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY, BUT IF YOU HAVE ANY UPCOMING
WEEKEND PLANS KEEP AN EYE ON THE FORECAST FOR POSSIBLE TRAVEL
IMPACTS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 616 PM EST SUN JAN 11 2026
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AT ALL TAF SITES. BUILDING
SURFACE RIDGING AND WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW WINDS
TO DIMINISH.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 27 50 29 58 / 0 0 0 0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 23 46 27 55 / 0 0 0 0
OAK RIDGE, TN 24 46 27 53 / 0 0 0 0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 20 43 25 52 / 0 0 0 0
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR BLOUNT SMOKY
MOUNTAINS-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-JOHNSON-SEVIER SMOKY
MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST
MONROE-UNICOI.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DH
AVIATION...DH
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