190
FXUS64 KMRX 071745
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
145 PM EDT TUE JUL 7 2020
UPDATE
FOR 18Z AVIATION.
DISCUSSION
ALL IN ALL LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED TO THE FCST FOR THIS UPDATE AS
THE REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A WEAK H5 LOW AND
CONSEQUENT MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE LOWER LEVEL CIRCULATIONS.
WITH THAT, LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FAVOR WEAK DOWNSLOPING
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING BEFORE GRADUALLY TAPERING AS
THE LLV FLOW BACKS MORE NLY WHEN THE H85 LOW MOVES INTO SC/NC.
THUS, THE FCST CONTINUES TO FEATURE INCREASING POPS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WITH THE HIGHEST POPS SOUTHWARD ALONG THE US64 CORRIDOR
AS WELL AS THE SOUTHERN PLATEAU/MOUNTAINS, WHILE POPS MAXIMIZE IN
THE CHANCE RANGE FURTHER NORTH. LATEST VISSAT FAVORS THE
PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE FCST, THEREFORE NO CHANGES MADE
ON THAT FRONT. OTHERWISE, TWEAKED HOURLY T/TD TO ALIGN WITH
RECENT OB TRENDS AND LEFT THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST AS IT WAS FOR
THIS UPDATE.
CDG
AVIATION
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.
MOSTLY VFR THROUGH THIS TAF CYCLE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ANY
CIG/VISB RESTRICTIONS ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON,
AS WELL AS THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME FOG TONIGHT. A WEAK UPPER
DISTURBANCES CONTINUES TO FOSTER DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT SHRA WITH
SOME EMBEDDED TSRA POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON, BEST CHANCES AT CHA.
WITH THAT, CIGS SHOULD STAY MOSTLY VFR WITH LOW CU BENEATH
MID/HIGH CIGS AT ALL SITES, ASIDE FOR THE EXCEPTIONS NOTED ABOVE.
MOVING FORWARD, TONIGHT GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FAVOR FOG,
ESPECIALLY AT TYS WHERE RESTRICTIONS COULD FALL TO IFR, HOWEVER
MVFR WAS MENTIONED IN THE TAF GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE (FOR ALL
SITES). ON WEDNESDAY ALL SITES SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE END
OF THE TAF CYCLE. WINDS ARE FCST LIGHT AND VRB, PERHAPS MORESO NLY
ON WEDNESDAY AT TYS/TRI, NWLY AT CHA.
CDG
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 71 91 71 92 73 / 20 60 30 60 20
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 70 91 70 91 71 / 30 50 20 50 20
OAK RIDGE, TN 69 91 70 92 71 / 20 50 20 50 20
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 67 88 67 88 68 / 20 50 20 50 20
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
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