233
FXUS64 KMRX 191732
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
132 PM EDT TUE MAY 19 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 131 PM EDT TUE MAY 19 2026
- VERY WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUE FOR WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS ROUGHLY
10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURN FOR WEDNESDAY,
WITH CONTINUED HIGH RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 131 PM EDT TUE MAY 19 2026
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE POPPED UP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
MIDDLE TN, BUT SO FAR THE CAP HAS SUPPRESSED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
IN OUR AREA. SOME OF THE ACTIVITY TO OUR WEST COULD REACH OUR
PLATEAU COUNTIES IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS, BUT COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN
ISOLATED. CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW SHORT-LIVED POP-UP SHOWERS IN OUR
MOUNTAIN ZONES ALONG THE TN/NC BORDER.
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BE GREATER ON WEDNESDAY AS THE GULF OPENS
UP A BIT MORE AND PROVIDES SOME MOISTURE AROUND 850 MB. WE WILL
STILL HAVE A DRY LAYER ABOVE THAT, WHICH WILL LIMIT COVERAGE AND
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. SHEAR APPEAR QUITE WEAK
TOO, SO CONVECTION SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED, AND THE SEVERE THREAT
LOOKS LOW. AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF I-75 SHOULD HAVE THE GREATEST
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS TOMORROW, AS CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO
DEVELOP IN THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU WITH A SLOW NE MOVEMENT.
PW VALUES JUMP INTO THE 1.6 TO 1.8 INCH RANGE ON THURSDAY AS A 850
MB LOW MOVES INTO NORTHERN MS/AL, OPENING THE GULF FOR DEEP AND
PERSISTENT MOISTURE ADVECTION. A BOUNDARY WILL EXTEND FROM THE LOW
ACROSS THE PLATEAU INTO SW VA, ACTING AS A FOCUS FOR CONVERGENCE AND
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. POPS WILL BE CATEGORICAL ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA, WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL BE
LACKING FOR ANY ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT, ALTHOUGH SOME GUSTY
DOWNBURTS WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE.
A WARM, MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY AS ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSES AR AND LIFTS THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY
FARTHER NORTH INTO KY. HIGH PW VALUES IN AN UNCAPPED ENVIRONMENT
WILL AGAIN LEAD TO CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS THE AREA IN THE
AFTERNOON. CAPE AND SHEAR APPEAR A BIT HIGHER ON FRIDAY, MAINLY IN
OUR SOUTHERN SECTIONS WHERE CLOUDS MAY SCATTER ENOUGH TO ENHANCE
AFTERNOON HEATING, SO WE WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME SEVERE STORMS AS WE GET CLOSER TO FRIDAY.
A DEEP SW FLOW PERSISTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK,
WITH BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE CENTRAL US. DISTURBANCES EJECTING FROM
THIS BROAD TROUGH WILL BRING SEVERAL ROUNDS OF ENHANCED RAIN CHANCES
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT THE TIMING OF THESE DISTURBANCES
REMAINS HIGLY UNCERTAIN. OVERALL, THE PATTERN FAVORS CONTINUED HIGH
RAIN CHANCES EACH DAY. THE PRIMARY IMPACTS WILL BE LIGHTNING AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 131 PM EDT TUE MAY 19 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS THIS AFTERNOON
AT TYS WILL BE IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE, THEN DROP TO AROUND 5 KT NEAR
SUNSET. SOME GUSTY WINDS AND SHOWERS/STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON, BUT ONLY NEAR THE VERY END OF THIS TAF PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 68 89 66 86 / 0 60 40 80
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 68 89 66 84 / 0 40 20 90
OAK RIDGE, TN 66 88 64 84 / 0 50 30 90
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 64 88 63 82 / 0 30 60 100
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DGS
AVIATION...DGS
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