414  
FXUS64 KMRX 151931  
AFDMRX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN  
331 PM EDT MON JUL 15 2019  
   
SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND TUESDAY)
 
 
THE CENTER OF BARRY'S REMNANTS ARE MOVING NORTH THROUGH AR THIS  
AFTERNOON WITH A LARGE AREA OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM  
SOUTHEAST TEXAS, EAST THROUGH SOUTHERN LOUISIANA, MISSISSIPPI AND  
INTO ALABAMA. THE HIGHER CLOUDS AND SOME MIDDLE CLOUDS EXTEND FAR  
TO THE EAST OVER THE FORECAST AREA. FILTERED SUNSHINE HAS ALLOWED  
TEMPERATURES TO RISE TO THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 ACROSS THE  
EASTERN TENNESSEE VALLEY WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE LOWER TO  
MID 90S. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE EXTENDS TO THE  
EAST AND SOUTHEAST INTO THE CAROLINAS. THE BOUNDARY THAT WAS OVER  
THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY HAD SHIFTED NORTH INTO EASTERN KY AND WAS  
THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. ONLY ISOLATED  
CONVECTION HAD DEVELOPED SO FAR MAINLY OVER THE SMOKIES AND  
SOUTHEASTERN TENNESSEE MOUNTAINS AND INTO SOUTHWEST NORTH  
CAROLINA. EXPECT THE SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DECREASE EARLY THIS  
EVENING, POSSIBLY BEFORE SUNSET. BASED ON FOG COVERAGE THIS  
MORNING AND ISOLATED AREA OF CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON WILL NOT  
HAVE FOG MENTIONED IN FORECAST TONIGHT. PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP  
THOUGH IN THE USUAL FOG PRONE AREAS. SKIES TONIGHT WILL ALSO HAVE  
CONSIDERABLE HIGH CLOUDINESS FROM BARRY WHICH WILL LIMIT FOG  
FORMATION. TUESDAY THE REMNANTS OF BARRY WILL GET PICKED UP BY AN  
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO  
VALLEYS AND STAY OVER WESTERN AND MIDDLE TENNESSEE SO ONLY  
LIMITED CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING LIKE  
TODAY. HIGHS WILL BE A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER MOSTLY LOWER 90S.  
   
LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
 
 
THE MERGER OF BARRY'S REMAINS WITH A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE  
MS VALLEY ON TUESDAY WILL RESULT IN LIKELY POPS FOR OUR AREA ON  
WEDNESDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST. THE MAIN CONCERN THAT WE HAVE  
BEEN WATCHING FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS IS THE HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING  
POTENTIAL, BUT THE TREND OVER THE PAST FEW MODEL RUNS HAS BEEN  
TOWARD LOWER QPF. WHILE PW VALUES WILL BE ANOMALOUSLY HIGH, AROUND  
2 INCHES, THE TROUGH APPEARS TO BE PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH THAT ANY  
FLASH FLOODING THREAT SHOULD BE ISOLATED TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL  
RATES OR TRAINING CELLS. MODEL AGREEMENT IS GOOD THAT THE TIMING  
OF THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. POPS WILL  
BE TRENDING DOWN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVE TO OUR  
EAST.  
 
A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE DRIFTING EAST FROM THE LOWER OH VALLEY  
TO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIAN REGION WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE  
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. ABOVE NORMAL  
TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED UNDER THIS RIDGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  
MOISTURE AND INSTABILTY SHOULD BE ADEQUATE EACH DAY TO SUPPORT  
ISOLATED AFTERNOON STORMS IN THE TN VALLEY, WITH SCATTERED COVERAGE  
IN THE MOUNTAINS.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 73 93 74 90 / 10 10 20 60  
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 71 92 72 88 / 10 10 10 70  
OAK RIDGE, TN 72 93 71 86 / 10 10 20 70  
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 68 91 67 88 / 20 20 10 70  
 

 
   
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NC...NONE.  
TN...NONE.  
VA...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
TD/DGS  
 
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