298
FXUS64 KMRX 271116
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
616 AM EST SAT DEC 27 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 530 AM EST SAT DEC 27 2025
- UNSEASONABLE WARM WEATHER TODAY AND SUNDAY WITH NEAR RECORD
TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE AT CHATTANOOGA.
- WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY A STRONG COLD FRONT LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING.
- STRONG GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED AREA-WIDE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
- MUCH COLDER AIRMASS MOVES INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
EARLY NEXT WEEK. WIND CHILLS NEAR ZERO ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1232 AM EST SAT DEC 27 2025
CURRENTLY, WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT IS PRODUCING ISOLATED SPRINKLES OR
LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH BY DAYBREAK. REFS SHOWS SOME HIGHER
PROBABILITIES OF FOG MAINLY ACROSS THE PLATEAU, WESTERN SECTIONS
OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
MAIN WEATHER STORY WILL REMAIN BROAD UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE UNITED STATES WITH ANOMALY HIGH HEIGHTS PRODUCING
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES. HIGHS AND LOWS AROUND 20-25 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.
FOR TODAY, HREF AND DETERMINISTIC SHOW A DRIER AIRMASS MOVING
NORTHWEST FROM THE CAROLINAS INTO THE REGION ALLOWING FOR MORE
SUNSHINE. THE INCREASE IN DAYTIME HEATING WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S MOST LOCATIONS. NEAR RECORD HIGHS
ARE EXPECTED AT CHATTANOOGA.
FOR TONIGHT, BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE RETURNS WITH SKY COVER BECOMING
MOSTLY CLOUDY BUT REMAINING DRY.
FOR SUNDAY, INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT AND DEEPER MOISTURE RETURN
MAY PRODUCE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS. A DIGGING UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE MID-SECTION OF THE NATION WILL BEGIN TO TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE
GRADIENTS ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WITH BRISK SOUTHWEST WINDS OF
10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE.
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY, AN UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES WITH A STRONG 300MB JET OF 150-155 KTS OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. THE JET DYNAMICS WILL
PRODUCE A GOOD DEAL OF JET DYNAMICS AND FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AS THE
STRONG FRONT QUICKLY CROSSES THE AREA FROM 3 AM TO 7 AM MONDAY.
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE FOLLOWED
BY STRONG COLD ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY THAT WILL LEAD TO FALLING
TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. DUE TO TIMING OF THE FRONT
MADE SOME MODIFICATIONS TO NBM TEMPERATURE CURVE LOWERING QUICKLY
INTO THE 30S AND 40S.
LREF SHOWS MOST LOCATIONS ONLY RECEIVING 0.20 INCH OF PRECIPITATION
DURING THE EVENT.
ALSO, STRONG GRADIENT WINDS WILL ENHANCE THE WINDS AREA-WIDE BUT
ESPECIALLY FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEED
FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AHEAD AND AND NEAR THE TIME OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. HOWEVER, LREF SHOWS WINDS ELSEWHERE LIKELY GUSTING OVER 30-
35 MPH DURING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
WIND CHILLS MAY DROP BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS MONDAY
NIGHT WITH SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS IN THE VALLEY. A COLD AIRMASS
WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 30S.
A SLOW MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
DAILY RECORD HIGH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
DATE CHATTANOOGA KNOXVILLE TRI-CITIES OAK RIDGE
12-26 75(2021) 74(2015) 73(2015) 74(2015)
12-27 76(2015) 77(2015) 77(2015) 76(2015)
12-28 73(2015) 76(2015) 73(2021) 72(2021)
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 530 AM EST SAT DEC 27 2025
STILL SOME MVFR CIGS AROUND EARLY, BUT WILL TREND TO VFR
CONDITIONS FOR THE BULK OF THE PERIOD ALL SITES. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE LIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 74 61 74 44 / 0 10 10 80
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 73 56 73 42 / 0 10 20 80
OAK RIDGE, TN 71 56 71 40 / 0 0 20 90
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 68 48 67 43 / 0 0 10 60
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DH
AVIATION...99
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