309
FXUS64 KMRX 060546
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1246 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1242 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2026
- RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND SATURDAY AND THEN
AGAIN EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.
- A SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND. A FEW STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH DAMAGING WINDS AS THE PRIMARY
THREAT.
- SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL RETURN EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK WITH
LIMITED SEVERE CHANCES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1242 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2026
CURRENTLY, A SHORTWAVE IS MOVING AWAY FROM OUR AREA TO THE NORTHEAST
WITH A DEEPENING TROUGH NOTED ACROSS THE ROCKIES. LOCALLY, RIDGING
REMAINS IN PLACE, CONTINUING THE RECORD WARMTH SEEN IN RECENT DAYS.
AS THIS TROUGH EJECTS INTO THE GREAT PLAINS, A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW
WILL TRACK INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND EVENTUALLY
INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY SATURDAY. OUT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM, RIDGING
AND SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH TEMPERATURES HIGHER, WITH
MANY SEEING VALUES IN THE 80S ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, ON PAR WITH
RECORDS:
DAILY RECORD HIGH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
DATE CHATTANOOGA KNOXVILLE TRI-CITIES OAK RIDGE
03-06 82(1956) 79(2022) 79(2022) 81(1956)
03-07 82(2000) 80(1983) 79(1956) 80(1956)
ASIDE FROM RECORD HEAT, THE FOCUS WILL BE ON INCREASING RAIN CHANCES
AS MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE REGION, ALBEIT STILL LIMITED ON FRIDAY.
BY SATURDAY, HOWEVER, MOISTURE WILL BE MORE EXPANSIVE AND COINCIDENT
WITH THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW APPROACHING THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY. THE BETTER FORCING AND INSTABILITY REMAIN TO OUR
SOUTHWEST AND ALSO TO OUR NORTH, BUT GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST
MLCAPE REACHING 500 TO 1,000 J/KG AREA-WIDE AND WITH DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR POTENTIALLY REACHING 35 KTS. THE LATEST TREND ALSO SHOWS LESS
COVERAGE DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY WITH A POTENTIAL LINE ARRIVING
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON OR AFTER SUNSET. THE LESSENED DAYTIME
COVERAGE WILL ALLOW BETTER HEATING, BUT IF A LINE ARRIVES LATER,
INSTABILITY WILL BE MORE LIMITED. THE LATEST TRENDS AND DEPICTED
STORM MODE CONTINUE TO SUGGEST MARGINAL SEVERE POTENTIAL, FOCUSED ON
DAMAGING WINDS. HOWEVER, THIS WILL REMAIN HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON TIMING
AND OVERALL INSTABILTY. BY SUNDAY, THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY ENDS UP
STALLING ALONG OR JUST NORTH OF OUR NORTHERN BORDER, KEEPING CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ELEVATED THROUGH THE DAY. THIS WILL ALSO
MODERATE TEMPERATURES BACK BELOW RECORD VALUES.
BY MONDAY, TROUGHING WILL FLATTEN OUT MORE, LEADING TO A RETURN OF
MORE ZONAL FLOW TO OUR AREA. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ALSO BE
PULLED BACK NORTHWARD, INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND ALLOWING FOR
ANOTHER RISE IN TEMPERATURES BACK INTO RECORD TERRITORY:
DAILY RECORD HIGH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
03-09 82(2009) 82(1925) 79(2016) 80(1974)
03-10 81(2009) 81(2016) 82(2016) 81(2016)
03-11 81(2006) 81(2006) 78(2006) 80(1990)
BY TUESDAY, A CLOSED LOW WILL MOVE OUT OF MEXICO INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WITH ITS DOWNSTREAM JET MERGING WITH FLOW TO THE NORTH. THIS
WILL ALSO PRODUCE ANOTHER DEEPENING SURFACE LOW THAT FOLLOWS A TRACK
SIMILAR TO THE FIRST ONE. THE BOUNDARY PULLED NORTH WILL GRADUALLY
TRACK TOWARDS OUR AREA, LEADING TO ANOTHER INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND
STORMS. AS WITH THE FIRST SYSTEM, THE BETTER UPPER SUPPORT REMAINS
TO THE NORTH AND WEST, BUT THE FRONT MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR ANOTHER
CHANCE OF STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS MID-WEEK. THIS WILL BE
WORTH KEEPING AN EYE ON, BUT THERE IS CURRENTLY NO NOTABLE RISK IN
OUR AREA.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1242 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2026
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO IS POSSIBLE TOMORROW LATE AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING HOURS, BUT NOT CONFIDENT IN IMPACTS DIRECTLY OVER THE
TERMINALS, SO MAINTAINING PRIOR SHIFT FORECAST AS PERSISTENCE. VFR
IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OTHERWISE, THOUGH THERE'S A LOW PROBABILITY
FOR MVFR CIGS NEAR KCHA AROUND DAYBREAK. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT,
THOUGH A GUST TO 15 KNOTS IS CONCEIVABLE DURING THE AFTERNOON,
ESPECIALLY AT KTYS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 83 63 82 61 / 30 30 60 80
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 81 62 81 61 / 20 20 60 80
OAK RIDGE, TN 81 62 80 60 / 20 20 70 80
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 78 56 79 58 / 20 10 60 80
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION...WELLINGTON
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