096
FXUS64 KMRX 260541
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1241 AM EST FRI DEC 26 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1235 AM EST FRI DEC 26 2025
- UNSEASONABLE WARM WEATHER TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NEAR
RECORD TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE IN CHATTANOOGA.
- LOW RAIN CHANCES TODAY AND TONIGHT IN NORTHERN SECTIONS, WITH BETTER
CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT.
- STRONG GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY.
- MUCH COLDER AIRMASS MOVES INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1235 AM EST FRI DEC 26 2025
LIGHT SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY NOTED ON RADAR JUST OUTSIDE OF OUR AREA
IN SOUTHERN WV AND SW VA. THESE SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT AND WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT. MOISTURE IS QUITE SHALLOW
AND REMAINS SO THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT, SO AS THE FRONT REMAINS
NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES DURING THAT TIME, SOME
LIGHT ON/OFF SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN PARTS OF SW VA AND NE TN.
A RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE UNITED STATES
TODAY AND THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. THIS RIDGE WILL PRODUCE
UNUSUAL WARMTH FOR LATE DECEMBER WITH HIGHS AROUND 20 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. NEAR RECORD HIGHS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CHATTANOOGA AREA
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL CROSS THE GREAT LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK. A STRONG
300MB JET OF 160-165 KTS DIGS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THIS TROUGH, PRODUCING A GOOD
DEAL OF JET DYNAMICS AND FRONTOGENETIC FORCING, PRODUCING A STRONG
COLD FRONT THAT CROSSES THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
MORNING. PRECIP IN THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL PEAK MONDAY MORNING
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, FOLLOWED BY STRONG COLD ADVECTION THROUGH
THE DAY THAT WILL LEAD TO FALLING TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS. ALSO, STRONG GRADIENT WINDS WILL ENHANCE THE WINDS ESPECIALLY
FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEED FOR THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS AHEAD AND AND NEAR THE TIME OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
WIND CHILLS MAY DROP BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS MONDAY
NIGHT WITH SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS IN THE VALLEY. A COLD AIRMASS
WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 30S.
A SLOW MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
DAILY RECORD HIGH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
DATE CHATTANOOGA KNOXVILLE TRI-CITIES OAK RIDGE
12-26 75(2021) 74(2015) 73(2015) 74(2015)
12-27 76(2015) 77(2015) 77(2015) 76(2015)
12-28 73(2015) 76(2015) 73(2021) 72(2021)
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1235 AM EST FRI DEC 26 2025
WILL MAINLY SEE A MIX OF MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS ALL SITES DURING THE
PERIOD, ALTHOUGH THE EXACT DETAILS ARE LOW CONFIDENCE. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT, THEN INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST CLOSER TO 10 KTS WITH
SOME HIGHER GUSTS ESPECIALLY TYS DURING THE DAY BEFORE DECREASING
SLIGHTLY LATE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 71 59 75 60 / 10 10 0 10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 71 59 72 57 / 20 20 0 10
OAK RIDGE, TN 68 57 71 56 / 20 10 0 10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 65 55 67 50 / 40 50 0 0
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DGS
AVIATION...99
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