193
FXUS64 KMRX 020514
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
114 AM EDT THU APR 2 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 111 AM EDT THU APR 2 2026
- A FEW ISOLATED STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING.
- VERY WARM THROUGH SATURDAY. 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
- CHANCES FOR PM SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH GREATER
COVERAGE ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. BETTER CHANCES FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.
- COLD FRONT LATE WEEKEND WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT
WEEK. FROST POSSIBLE MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 230 PM EDT WED APR 1 2026
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE ONGOING ACROSS THE
AREA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE GREATEST
THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM WILL BE ALONG THE TN/KY STATE
LINE AND INTO SOUTHWEST VA. THESE AREAS ARE WHERE WEAK,
EFFECTIVE, 0-6KM SHEAR OF AROUND 15KTS OVERLAPS WITH MODERATE
INSTABILITY. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF AN ISOLATED DAMAGING
WIND GUST ACROSS THESE AREA ALONG WITH SMALL HAIL. THE HIGHER
SHEAR VALUES WILL REMAIN FURTHER NORTH INTO KY THROUGH THE REST OF
TODAY. A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE DUE TO
THE MODERATE INSTABILITY, BUT AGAIN LOW PROBABILITY OF ANY SEVERE
WEATHER.
WITH THE STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE TO OUR EAST, THE
ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH CONTINUES TOMORROW THROUGH SATURDAY.
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL BE IN PLACE EACH DAY. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED DUE TO
THE ABSENCE OF SHEAR.
A COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE FORECAST AREA SOMETIME LATE SATURDAY
INTO EARLY SUNDAY. THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES TO REMAIN
LOW DUE TO THE EXPECTED TIMING (OVERNIGHT ARRIVAL) OF THE SHOWERS
AND STORMS AND THUS LIMITED INSTABILITY. THOUGH NO SPC OUTLOOKS
ARE IN PLACE AT THE MOMENT, WPC CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT A MRGL
RISK (5% PROBABILITY) FOR FLASH FLOODING FOR THE NOW DAY 4 PERIOD.
CURRENT NBM PROBS FOR AT LEAST 1 INCH OF RAIN WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE RANGE FROM 35 TO 55% FOR MOST AREAS. LOWER PROBS OF 15 TO
25% ARE IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHEAST TN AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
VA.
FOLLOWING THE FRONT, COOLER MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES BEGINNING
EASTER SUNDAY TO KICK START THE FIRST FULL WEEK OF APRIL. A DRY FEW
DAYS MAY SET IN WITH LOW AFTERNOON RHS, SO A POSSIBLE RETURN OF
ENHANCED FIRE DANGER. FROST DEVELOPMENT MAY EVEN BE POSSIBLE SOME
MORNINGS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 111 AM EDT THU APR 2 2026
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO THE MORNING
HOURS WITH LIMITED CLOUD COVER GENERALLY BETWEEN 5,000 AND 10,000
FEET. THROUGHOUT THE DAY, INCREASING SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH GUSTS OF 20 KTS OR GREATER LIKELY AT CHA
AND TYS. THERE ARE SOME CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OR ISOLATED STORMS IN
THE AFTERNOON, BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ENOUGH FOR IT TO BE LEFT
OUT OF THE TAFS. IF ANYTHING DID HIT ONE OF THE TERMINALS, TRI HAS
THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR IMPACT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 85 63 83 63 / 20 10 20 10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 84 63 82 62 / 30 0 20 10
OAK RIDGE, TN 84 63 82 62 / 20 10 20 10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 82 57 81 57 / 30 0 20 10
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...BW
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