422
FXUS64 KMRX 051251
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
751 AM EST THU FEB 5 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 632 AM EST THU FEB 5 2026
- THE ONGOING LIGHT SNOW WILL BE ENDING IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS,
WITH SOME LIGHT ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE MAINLY NORTH
SECTIONS AND MOUNTAINS. SLICK SPOTS FROM BLACK ICE AND ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE A CONCERN THIS MORNING.
- CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS MAINLY SW VA AND THE E TN
MOUNTAINS LATER FRIDAY AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER
SURGE OF COLD AIR MOVES IN. GUSTY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AS WELL.
- WARMER TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1209 AM EST THU FEB 5 2026
COLDER AIR IS PUSHING IN AND THE ONGOING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
BE TAPERING OFF AND ENDING BEFORE SUNRISE. ADDITIONAL VERY LIGHT
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER MAINLY THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS WILL BE
POSSIBLE BEFORE THE SNOW SHOWERS END, GENERALLY NO MORE THAN A
DUSTING TO LESS THAN AN INCH. HOWEVER, SLICK SPOTS FROM BLACK ICE
AND ANY SNOW THAT DID ACCUMULATE OVERNIGHT WILL BE A CONCERN FOR
THOSE ON THE ROADWAYS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. THE SPS
WILL BE CONTINUED TO HIGHLIGHT THIS.
A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL CROSS THE AREA IN THE NW FLOW
THURSDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY NIGHT. THE LATTER WILL BE MORE
SIGNIFICANT, ALTHOUGH MOISTURE CURRENTLY LOOKS LIMITED. A QUICK SHOT
OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE MAINLY SW VA AND NE TN
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT THAT WILL TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW SHOWERS AS
THE COLD ADVECTION RAMPS UP IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW FRIDAY NIGHT.
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY IN THE E TN
MOUNTAINS AND SW VA WHERE OROGRAPHIC LIFT WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT
FACTOR, AND THE NBM CURRENTLY HAS AROUND A 30% TO 70% CHANCE OF 24
HOUR SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS EXCEEDING 1 INCH IN THE 24 HOURS ENDING
SATURDAY MORNING IN THESE AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLDER AGAIN
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S NORTH, AND 40S SOUTH. IT WILL
ALSO BE WINDY OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING WITH WIND GUSTS APPROACHING 40 MPH AT TIMES.
A WELCOME WARM UP WILL COME NEXT WEEK AS A LARGE RIDGE BUILDS OVER
THE REGION. EXPECT TO SEE HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. MODELS ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD
SO UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH FOR THE DETAILS, BUT CHANCES FOR RAIN START
TO SHOW UP AGAIN IN THE FORECAST BY WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 632 AM EST THU FEB 5 2026
MVFR CIGS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH LATE MORNING
AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. OVERALL, THE MOST UNCERTAIN FORECAST IS
FOR TRI. GUIDANCE IS LOCKED INTO MVFR AS THERE IS EXPECTED TO BE
ADDITIONAL LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT TOMORROW NIGHT. HOWEVER, DO
BELIEVE THERE COULD BE A PERIOD IN THE EVENING HOURS WHERE TRI
BRIEFLY RETURNS VFR CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT, GENERALLY 5
KTS OR LESS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 45 28 56 32 / 0 0 0 0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 38 24 49 27 / 0 0 10 30
OAK RIDGE, TN 39 24 50 26 / 0 0 10 20
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 35 21 40 21 / 10 0 60 60
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...KRS
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