190  
FXUS64 KMRX 071745  
AFDMRX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN  
145 PM EDT TUE JUL 7 2020  
   
UPDATE
 
 
FOR 18Z AVIATION.  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
ALL IN ALL LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED TO THE FCST FOR THIS UPDATE AS  
THE REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A WEAK H5 LOW AND  
CONSEQUENT MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE LOWER LEVEL CIRCULATIONS.  
WITH THAT, LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FAVOR WEAK DOWNSLOPING  
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING BEFORE GRADUALLY TAPERING AS  
THE LLV FLOW BACKS MORE NLY WHEN THE H85 LOW MOVES INTO SC/NC.  
THUS, THE FCST CONTINUES TO FEATURE INCREASING POPS THROUGH THE  
AFTERNOON WITH THE HIGHEST POPS SOUTHWARD ALONG THE US64 CORRIDOR  
AS WELL AS THE SOUTHERN PLATEAU/MOUNTAINS, WHILE POPS MAXIMIZE IN  
THE CHANCE RANGE FURTHER NORTH. LATEST VISSAT FAVORS THE  
PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE FCST, THEREFORE NO CHANGES MADE  
ON THAT FRONT. OTHERWISE, TWEAKED HOURLY T/TD TO ALIGN WITH  
RECENT OB TRENDS AND LEFT THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST AS IT WAS FOR  
THIS UPDATE.  
 
CDG  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.  
 
MOSTLY VFR THROUGH THIS TAF CYCLE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ANY  
CIG/VISB RESTRICTIONS ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON,  
AS WELL AS THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME FOG TONIGHT. A WEAK UPPER  
DISTURBANCES CONTINUES TO FOSTER DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT SHRA WITH  
SOME EMBEDDED TSRA POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON, BEST CHANCES AT CHA.  
WITH THAT, CIGS SHOULD STAY MOSTLY VFR WITH LOW CU BENEATH  
MID/HIGH CIGS AT ALL SITES, ASIDE FOR THE EXCEPTIONS NOTED ABOVE.  
MOVING FORWARD, TONIGHT GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FAVOR FOG,  
ESPECIALLY AT TYS WHERE RESTRICTIONS COULD FALL TO IFR, HOWEVER  
MVFR WAS MENTIONED IN THE TAF GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE (FOR ALL  
SITES). ON WEDNESDAY ALL SITES SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE END  
OF THE TAF CYCLE. WINDS ARE FCST LIGHT AND VRB, PERHAPS MORESO NLY  
ON WEDNESDAY AT TYS/TRI, NWLY AT CHA.  
 
CDG  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 71 91 71 92 73 / 20 60 30 60 20  
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 70 91 70 91 71 / 30 50 20 50 20  
OAK RIDGE, TN 69 91 70 92 71 / 20 50 20 50 20  
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 67 88 67 88 68 / 20 50 20 50 20  
 

 
   
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NC...NONE.  
TN...NONE.  
VA...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
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