210
FXUS64 KMRX 190634
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
234 AM EDT TUE MAY 19 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 231 AM EDT TUE MAY 19 2026
- VERY WARM TEMPERATURES TODAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS ROUGHLY 10
TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
- INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURN WEDNESDAY, WITH
CONTINUED CHANCES EACH DAY INTO THE WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 231 AM EDT TUE MAY 19 2026
MOSTLY DRY TODAY, NBM HAS NO POPS, BUT CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW ISOLATED
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS. OTHERWISE, VERY WARM WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90. NEAR RECORD HIGHS AT TYS AND TRI.
ON WEDNESDAY, MODELS STILL SHOW A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH PUSHING THE
RIDGE EAST AND OPENING THE DOOR FOR A FRONTAL PASSAGE. SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE IN RESPONSE TO THE LOWER HEIGHTS
AND HIGHER MOISTURE. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE ACROSS THE EAST TN
MOUNTAINS AND CUMBERLAND PLATEAU. REFS AND LREF INSTABILITY PROBS
SHOW HIGH ODDS THAT CAPE VALUES WILL BE LESS THAN 1000 J/KG. COMBINE
THIS WITH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 6 DEGREES OR LESS AND LITTLE TO
NO SHEAR, SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
ON THURSDAY THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH AND BACK INTO THE AREA
AND PROVIDES FOCUS FOR MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE HIGHEST POPS
WILL RESIDE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. IT'S HARD TO SAY EXACTLY
WHERE IT WILL BE WITHIN OUR AREA. INSTABILITY AND SHEAR ONCE AGAIN
REMAIN LIMITED, SO NO SEVERE THREAT FOR THURSDAY EITHER.
FOR FRIDAY, RIDGING RETURNS AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH
INTO KY. HOWEVER, PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY REMAINS SO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED.
NO REAL CHANGES DURING THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK PERIOD. WE
WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE AN UNSETTLED PATTERN IN PLACE WITH AN
ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE TO DAILY SHOWERS AND STORMS. OVERALL, THE
SEVERE THREAT REMAINS LOW DURING THIS TIME DUE TO LACK OF SHEAR.
QPF THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE VERY HIT OR MISS. SOME AREAS MAY SEE
SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS WHILE SOME SEE FAR LESS.
THIS IS DUE TO THE SCATTERED NATURE OF THE CONVECTION.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 231 AM EDT TUE MAY 19 2026
VFR AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM IS
POSSIBLE, BUT LIKE YESTERDAY, COVERAGE WILL BE TOO MINIMAL FOR
INCLUSION. OTHERWISE GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS, A GUST TO 15 KNOTS IS
POSSIBLE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 90 68 89 66 / 10 0 70 30
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 91 68 89 66 / 0 0 50 30
OAK RIDGE, TN 89 65 87 64 / 0 0 70 40
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 89 63 87 63 / 0 0 50 50
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...WELLINGTON
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