414
FXUS64 KMRX 151931
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
331 PM EDT MON JUL 15 2019
SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND TUESDAY)
THE CENTER OF BARRY'S REMNANTS ARE MOVING NORTH THROUGH AR THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A LARGE AREA OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
SOUTHEAST TEXAS, EAST THROUGH SOUTHERN LOUISIANA, MISSISSIPPI AND
INTO ALABAMA. THE HIGHER CLOUDS AND SOME MIDDLE CLOUDS EXTEND FAR
TO THE EAST OVER THE FORECAST AREA. FILTERED SUNSHINE HAS ALLOWED
TEMPERATURES TO RISE TO THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 ACROSS THE
EASTERN TENNESSEE VALLEY WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE LOWER TO
MID 90S. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE EXTENDS TO THE
EAST AND SOUTHEAST INTO THE CAROLINAS. THE BOUNDARY THAT WAS OVER
THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY HAD SHIFTED NORTH INTO EASTERN KY AND WAS
THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. ONLY ISOLATED
CONVECTION HAD DEVELOPED SO FAR MAINLY OVER THE SMOKIES AND
SOUTHEASTERN TENNESSEE MOUNTAINS AND INTO SOUTHWEST NORTH
CAROLINA. EXPECT THE SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DECREASE EARLY THIS
EVENING, POSSIBLY BEFORE SUNSET. BASED ON FOG COVERAGE THIS
MORNING AND ISOLATED AREA OF CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON WILL NOT
HAVE FOG MENTIONED IN FORECAST TONIGHT. PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP
THOUGH IN THE USUAL FOG PRONE AREAS. SKIES TONIGHT WILL ALSO HAVE
CONSIDERABLE HIGH CLOUDINESS FROM BARRY WHICH WILL LIMIT FOG
FORMATION. TUESDAY THE REMNANTS OF BARRY WILL GET PICKED UP BY AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO
VALLEYS AND STAY OVER WESTERN AND MIDDLE TENNESSEE SO ONLY
LIMITED CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING LIKE
TODAY. HIGHS WILL BE A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER MOSTLY LOWER 90S.
LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
THE MERGER OF BARRY'S REMAINS WITH A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE
MS VALLEY ON TUESDAY WILL RESULT IN LIKELY POPS FOR OUR AREA ON
WEDNESDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST. THE MAIN CONCERN THAT WE HAVE
BEEN WATCHING FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS IS THE HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING
POTENTIAL, BUT THE TREND OVER THE PAST FEW MODEL RUNS HAS BEEN
TOWARD LOWER QPF. WHILE PW VALUES WILL BE ANOMALOUSLY HIGH, AROUND
2 INCHES, THE TROUGH APPEARS TO BE PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH THAT ANY
FLASH FLOODING THREAT SHOULD BE ISOLATED TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
RATES OR TRAINING CELLS. MODEL AGREEMENT IS GOOD THAT THE TIMING
OF THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. POPS WILL
BE TRENDING DOWN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVE TO OUR
EAST.
A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE DRIFTING EAST FROM THE LOWER OH VALLEY
TO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIAN REGION WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED UNDER THIS RIDGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MOISTURE AND INSTABILTY SHOULD BE ADEQUATE EACH DAY TO SUPPORT
ISOLATED AFTERNOON STORMS IN THE TN VALLEY, WITH SCATTERED COVERAGE
IN THE MOUNTAINS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 73 93 74 90 / 10 10 20 60
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 71 92 72 88 / 10 10 10 70
OAK RIDGE, TN 72 93 71 86 / 10 10 20 70
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 68 91 67 88 / 20 20 10 70
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
TD/DGS
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