632
FXUS64 KMRX 240532
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
132 AM EDT SUN AUG 24 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 132 AM EDT SUN AUG 24 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
1. A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE UNTIL THE AFTERNOON WITH
THE BEST COVERAGE IN EASTERN AREAS ALONG THE MOUNTAINS.
2. DRY AND MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH LOWS NEARING RECORDS ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. SLIGHTLY
WARMER AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION:
CURRENTLY, DEEPENING UPPER TROUGHING EXTENDS FROM ONTARIO DOWN
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS MOVING
THROUGH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES AND ABUNDANT
MOISTURE ALLOWED FOR PERSISTENT SHOWERS AND STORMS YESTERDAY
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HOWEVER, CAMS
INDICATE COVERAGE TO BE LIMITED, LIKELY DUE TO LIMITED INSTABILITY
FROM ACTIVITY YESTERDAY INTO THIS MORNING. FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA MAY DESTABILIZE CLOSE TO 1,000 J/KG MLCAPE BEFORE THE FRONT
ARRIVES. HOWEVER, THIS WILL LIMIT POTENTIAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
FOR MOST.
LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING, THE FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED FAR PAST
THE REGION WITH BROAD TROUGHING DEEPENING ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S.
HIGH PRESSURE, CURRENTLY CENTERED IN SOUTHERN CANADA, WILL GRADUALLY
MOVE INTO THE REGION BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE
DRIER AND NOTABLY COOLER CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT DUE TO
RADIATIONAL COOLING. 850MB TEMPERATURES NOW LOOK LIKELY TO DROP
BELOW 10 CELSIUS, WHICH IS NEARING RECORD LOW VALUES FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. WITH THE MOST IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING LIKELY TO BE
WEDNESDAY MORNING, LOWS WILL LIKELY DROP WELL INTO THE 50S WITH
UPPER 40S LOOKING PROBABLE. HERE ARE THE RECORD LOWS FOR THE DAY,
WHICH MAY BE APPROACHED:
DATE CHATTANOOGA KNOXVILLE TRI-CITIES OAK RIDGE
08-27 53(1942) 50(1879) 46(1945) 54(1966)
HIGH PRESSURE IS LIKELY TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S.
WITH UPPER TROUGHING SHIFTING TO OUR EAST INTO THE WEEKEND. RIDGING
AND BETTER MOISTURE WILL LIKELY REMAIN TO OUR WEST, KEEPING MOSTLY
DRY AND SLIGHTLY WARMER CONDITIONS IN THE REGION.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 100 AM EDT SUN AUG 24 2025
WILL SEE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AROUND EARLY IN THE
PERIOD. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY FOR A PERIOD MAINLY TYS AND
TRI EARLY IN THE PERIOD AS WELL WITH FOG AND/OR LOW CIGS, AND
LOWER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY WITH ANY HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION. THE TREND WILL BE TO VFR ALL SITES DURING THE DAY,
WITH VFR THEN CONTINUING THROUGH THE PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 85 61 81 61 / 40 0 0 0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 84 61 80 58 / 40 0 0 0
OAK RIDGE, TN 85 58 79 57 / 30 0 0 0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 81 59 76 54 / 40 10 0 0
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION...
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