007
FXUS64 KMRX 170631
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
131 AM EST TUE FEB 17 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 128 AM EST TUE FEB 17 2026
- MUCH WARMER WEATHER THIS WEEK.
- CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL MODERATE RAINFALL RETURN WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND ONWARDS INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 128 AM EST TUE FEB 17 2026
LOW CONFIDENCE IN FOG DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING BUT SOME PATCHY FOG
CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN VALLEY AREAS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS, A RIDGE IS
CENTERED OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE
IS OVER THE SOUTHEAST. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS AND VERY LOW RAIN CHANCES MOVING INTO THE REGION
BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ON WEDNESDAY, THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN WITH
FLOW BECOMING NEARLY ZONAL. AT THE SURFACE, A LOW KICKS OUT OF THE
ROCKIES MOVING INTO THE MIDWEST BY THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES START TO
INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING AS A WARM OR
STATIONARY FRONT MAY BE LINGERING ACROSS OR NEAR THE REGION. THE
BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY MORNING AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THE PARENT LOW WILL BE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. THUNDER POTENTIAL IS LOW BUT A FEW RUMBLES CANNOT BE RULED
OUT.
SOME STRONGER WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS
WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN THURSDAY/FRIDAY AS 850 MB WINDS INCREASE BUT IT
LOOKS LIKE GUSTS WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH WARMER THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
60S. THURSDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH HIGHS GETTING INTO THE
70S FOR MOST OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.
ON SATURDAY, ANOTHER SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BRING RAIN. THIS ONE MAY
HAVE BETTER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. SHOULD BE DRYING OUT BY SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COLDER SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 128 AM EST TUE FEB 17 2026
OVERALL, QUIET AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. THERE IS A LOW-
END CHANCE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT THROUGH EARLY MORNING, BUT VFR WAS
MAINTAINED DUE TO LIMITED MODEL CONSENSUS. ALSO, SOME CLOUDS
AROUND 3,000 FEET AGL WILL MOVE OVER CHATTANOOGA ESPECIALLY
THROUGH THE DAY. CURRENTLY, IT SEEMS LIKE ONLY SCT COVERAGE BUT
WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR MVFR. ALSO, SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS WILL INCREASE BY THE AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY AT CHA AND TYS
WHERE GUSTS TO 20 KTS ARE POSSIBLE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 69 54 68 58 / 0 0 10 30
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 68 54 65 58 / 0 0 10 50
OAK RIDGE, TN 66 54 64 57 / 0 0 10 50
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 63 44 62 53 / 0 0 10 40
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MCD
AVIATION...BW
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