362
FXUS64 KMRX 050551
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1251 AM EST MON JAN 5 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1246 AM EST MON JAN 5 2026
- UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK. TEMPERATURES
WILL CLIMB TO AROUND 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
- BEST CHANCE OF RAINFALL WILL BE LATE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE.
- STRONG AND GUSTY MOUNTAIN WAVE WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1246 AM EST MON JAN 5 2026
DESPITE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS, DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO
THE REGION WILL HINDER FOG DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE MORNING.
ANOMALOUS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS MUCH OF
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS AND PROMOTE A WARMING TREND THIS WEEK.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MORE COMPARABLE TO TYPICAL DAYTIME HIGHS.
LOW RAIN CHANCES(25% OR LESS) RETURN AS AN INITIAL SHORTWAVE
TRAVERSES MEAN FLOW ALOFT TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. HOWEVER, THE
WEAK AMPLITUDE OF THE WAVE AND MINIMAL MOISTURE AVAILABILITY SUGGEST
ANY RAIN TO BE VERY LIGHT AND NON-IMPACTFUL. DURING THIS TIME, UPPER
TROUGHING WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND FURTHER ENHANCE
WAA ADVECTION INTO THE REGION.
THIS WILL PROMOTE A CONTINUED WARMING TREND BY A FEW DEGREES AS WE
HEAD INTO THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK, THOUGH CURRENT FORECAST TS
REMAIN A FEW DEGREES SHY OF ANY DAILY RECORDS. THE AFOREMENTIONED
WESTERN TROUGH WILL BEGIN EASTWARD PROGRESSION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY, BRINGING A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AT AT THE END OF THE
WEEK AND INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN
THE EXACT TIMING THIS FAR OUT, BUT WE WILL KEEP AN EYE ON A FEW
POTENTIAL IMPACTS, MAINLY FOCUSED ON THE WIND.
A STRENGTHENING H85 JET NEAR 50-60KTS AND TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT AS A LOW PRESSURE CENTER TRACKS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
WILL PROMOTE PERIODS OF MOUNTAIN WAVE WINDS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. IT WILL ALSO BE WORTH WATCHING THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER WINDS FROM THE LLJ TO BE TRANSPORTED TO THE
SURFACE AS THE MAIN AXIS OF FRONTOGENETIC FORCING SWINGS ACROSS
THE EASTERN TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE MORE LIKELY TIMING FOR THIS
SEEMS TO BE BETWEEN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY MORNING. IF WEAK
ELEVATED INSTABILITY ALIGNS WITH THE STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING, SOME
EMBEDDED THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THE SOUTHERN VALLEY
EITHER.
DUE TO RECENTLY EXPANDING D1/D2 DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
REGION, THIS WILL MORE THAN LIKELY BE A WELCOMED AND NEEDED EVENT
REGARDING RAINFALL. LATEST ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN PAINTS
PROBABILITIES OF 0.5" OR GREATER QPF BETWEEN 70-90% FOR THE
CUMBERLAND PLATEAU, CENTRAL & SOUTHERN TN VALLEY, AND SOUTHWEST
NC. LESSER PROBABILITIES BETWEEN 40-50% FOR RAIN SHADOW REGIONS IN
NORTHEAST TN AND SOUTHWEST VA. DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS BEHIND
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TO END THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1225 AM EST MON JAN 5 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE OUT OF THE
REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BE A BIT
GUSTY NEAR TYS THIS AFTERNOON BUT OTHERWISE LIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 64 48 65 51 / 0 0 10 10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 63 45 64 50 / 0 0 20 10
OAK RIDGE, TN 61 46 61 48 / 0 0 10 10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 58 38 62 48 / 0 0 10 30
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KRS
AVIATION...MCD
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