563
FXUS64 KMRX 161120
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
620 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 619 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2025
- DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH VERY LOW RH.
- A WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH A SYSTEM
IMPACTING THE AREA THURSDAY. STRONG MOUNTAIN WINDS, WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS, AND ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE SOUTH ARE EXPECTED.
- AFTERWARDS, DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS RETURN.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1240 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2025
CURRENTLY, BROAD TROUGHING IS LIFTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST WITH
RECENT ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE HAVING WEAKENED SOME AND TRACKED TO OUR
SOUTHEAST. THIS SETUP HAS CONTINUED THE COLD AND DRY TREND THAT HAS
BEEN SEEN IN RECENT DAYS. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE INCREASING AND LEAD
TO A CONTINUATION OF THE WARMING TREND. WITH THE CONTINUED SUBSIDENCE
AND DRYNESS OF THE AIRMASS, ANOTHER DAY OF LOW RH'S CAN BE EXPECTED
WITH VALUES IN THE 20S FOR MOST. WINDS WON'T BE TOO STRONG BECAUSE
OF A WEAK MSLP GRADIENT, BUT SOME HIGHER GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE AS 850MB
WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 25 KTS. BY WEDNESDAY, HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MOVE FURTHER TO THE EAST WITH FURTHER HEIGHT RISES AND MORE ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT. FOCUS WILL TURN TOWARDS DEEPENING TROUGHING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WITH BELOW 990MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTH
DAKOTA. THIS SYSTEM WILL TRACK TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH.
AS THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES, SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN
SIGNIFICANTLY AHEAD OF THE FRONT DUE TO THE MSLP GRADIENT AND A
BROAD 850MB JET OF 50 TO 60 KTS. IN ADDITION TO APPROACHING RAIN
CHANCES, THIS WILL TURN FOCUS TOWARDS STRONG WINDS, ESPECIALLY IN
THE MOUNTAINS. THE MSLP GRADIENT AND 850MB FLOW WILL BE STRONG, BUT
THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE VERY FAR NORTH. STILL, CHANCES ARE
INCREASING FOR A MOUNTAIN WAVE EVENT THURSDAY EVENING. WITH RESPECT
TO SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES, THE LATEST DATA CONTINUES TO
SHOW INSTABILITY IN SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA, MAINLY TO BE
ELEVATED. THIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR LOW-END THUNDER CHANCES BUT
WITH MAINLY SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION.
AFTER THIS SYSTEM MOVES EAST, COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL RETURN ON
FRIDAY WITH MORE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. OVERALL, TEMPERATURES WILL BE
BELOW NORMAL BUT STILL MUCH WARMER THAN WHAT WE RECENTLY SAW.
THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND, RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO HIGH
PRESSURE, BUT SOME SOLUTIONS SHOW VARIATIONS OF A WEAKER SYSTEM
LATER ON.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 619 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2025
LIGHT WINDS, VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH CLOUDS TO
ENTER AND BUILD AFTER 00Z.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 53 32 54 39 / 0 0 10 10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 51 31 53 34 / 0 0 10 10
OAK RIDGE, TN 48 31 51 34 / 0 0 10 10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 46 28 49 32 / 0 0 10 0
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION...WELLINGTON
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