896
FXUS64 KMRX 231758
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
158 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 151 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2026
-GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF THE EAST TENNESSEE MOUNTAINS
AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. A WIND ADVISORY
IS STILL IN EFFECT.
- DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS EXIST EACH DAY THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
-WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WITH NO RELIEF IN SIGHT UNTIL POSSIBLY
NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 149 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2026
WARM, MUGGY, AND THE UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. NO REAL SUBSTANTIAL CHANCES TO THE SYNOPTIC
PATTERN UNTIL POSSIBLY NEXT WEEKEND. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE
DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION OR EITHER TO THE NORTH OR SOUTH OF US FOR
THE COMING DAYS.
AN INCREASING LLJ THROUGHOUT THE DAY YESTERDAY WAS ONE OF THE MAIN
DRIVERS FOR THE SEVERE WEATHER EXPERIENCED. IT IS ALSO THE MAIN
DRIVER FOR THE GUSTY WINDS CURRENTLY BEING RECORDED OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AT THIS TIME. IT ISN'T AS STRONG AS WHAT WE COULD TYPICALLY
SEE IN THE WINTER WITH A STOUT WEDGE SETUP ON THE OTHER SIDE OF THE
MOUNTAINS. BUT JUST ENOUGH LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY TO SSE FLOW OVER THE
MOUNTAINS IS CREATING AROUND 45 MPH GUSTS. CAMP CREEK HAS GUSTED AS
HIGH AS 50 MPH, BUT GUSTS CAN MAINLY BE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE 40
MPH RANGE THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. THE LLJ IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
OFF TO THE NORTH AND ESSENTIALLY DAMPEN OUR SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
FOR LATER TODAY.
FOR LATER TODAY SEVERE WEATHER-WISE, NOT EXPECTING ANY STORMS TO GET
AS STRONG. THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE NEARLY ABSENT. THE SPC HAS
YET TO PUT OUT THE DAY 1 OUTLOOK AT THE TIME OF THIS DISCUSSION, BUT
WE'RE NOT EXPECTING THEM TO EXTEND THE MRGL FROM THE CAROLINA'S INTO
OUR AREA. GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS SEEM VALID. ALL THE OTHER PARAMETERS
OBSERVED ON A FORECAST SOUNDING WOULD BE INDICATIVE OF SHORT LIVED
CELLS CAPABLE OF GUSTS, LIGHTNING, AND HEAVY RAIN RESULTING IN
LOCALIZED FLOODING. PWS ABOVE 1.5", DEWS IN THE 70S, CAPES ABOVE
1000, AND FRONTAL BOUNDARYS NEARBY, WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND PRETTY MUCH THE ENTIRE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN THE SAME, OUTSIDE OF A
SHOWER BRINGING TEMPS DOWN TEMPORARILY, IN THE COMING DAYS.
WE MAY TRANSITION INTO A DIFFERENT WEATHER PATTERN NEXT WEEKEND JUST
OUTSIDE OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, WHEN WHAT APPEARS TO BE TROUGHING
TRYING TO SINK DOWN FROM THE NORTH AND EAST, SENDING UPPER HEIGHTS
DOWNWARD. INTERESTINGLY ENOUGH, THE CPC BEYOND THE FORECAST OUT TO
EARLY JUNE, HINTS AT TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL WITH PERHAPS JUST
BELOW NORMAL TO THE SE.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 151 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2026
PREDOMINANT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE AT TRI FOR A FEW MORE HOURS
THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS OR ISOLATED STORM MAY POP UP
NEAR TYS OR CHA, THOUGH, CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS LOW SO ONLY
INCLUDED BRIEF PROB30S AT THIS TIME. CONDITIONS WILL BE LARGELY
VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY HEAVIER PRECIPITATION. MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP AT CHA OVERNIGHT, THERE IS POTENTIAL SOME ADDITIONAL
PRECIPITATION OCCURS WITH THIS BUT HAVE LEFT AS VCSH DUE TO LOWER
CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME. HREF PROBABILITIES OF MVFR CIGS AT
TRI/TYS GENERALLY REMAIN 10% OR LESS TOMORROW MORNING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 64 83 66 82 / 60 50 70 90
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 63 83 64 82 / 60 70 50 80
OAK RIDGE, TN 62 83 63 81 / 70 60 50 80
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 61 83 61 82 / 50 60 50 70
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KS
AVIATION...KRS
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