384
FXUS64 KMRX 072342
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
742 PM EDT THU MAY 7 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 723 PM EDT THU MAY 7 2026
- DRY AND SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT. PATCHY
FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTH AND ALSO AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.
- FRIDAY SHOULD BE DRY, BUT A COUPLE OF SYSTEMS WILL BRING CHANCES
OF LIGHT RAIN TO THE REGION BETWEEN SATURDAY AND MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 125 PM EDT THU MAY 7 2026
A STRONG JET ATOP A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER TRAPPED IN THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY CONTINUED TO PRODUCE OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN AND
DRIZZLE FOR AREAS NEAR OR EAST OF THE I-81 CORRIDOR LATE THIS
MORNING. THE UPPER JET WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING BUT WE SHIFT INTO THE LEFT ENTRANCE REGION BY MID/LATE
AFTERNOON, LOSING ANY LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET STREAK AND THUS
OUR SUPPORT FOR CONTINUED LIGHT RAINFALL.
FOR TONIGHT, THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM
THE REGION, ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR TO MOVE IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE 30S TONIGHT ACROSS
SHELTERED AREAS NORTH OF THE I-40 CORRIDOR AND ALSO PLACES WITH
NOTABLE ELEVATION. SUSPECT WE HAVE A CHANCE OF SEEING SOME FROST IN
PLACES, ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN HOW WIDESPREAD THAT WILL BE IS PRETTY
LOW. BLENDED THE NBM 10TH PERCENTILE AND HREF FOR TEMPERATURES AND
DEWPOINTS TONIGHT, WHICH YIELDS SOME PATCHY FROST OVER PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHERN CUMBERLAND PLATEAU, AND SOME SCATTERED AREAS FROM THE
FAR NORTHERN TN VALLEY INTO SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA, AS WELL AS ELEVATED
PLACES IN OUR TN MOUNTAINS. WILL FOREGO HEADLINES AT THE MOMENT DUE
TO UNCERTAINTIES IN COVERAGE, AND JUST HIGHLIGHT HERE AND ALSO IN
THE HWO.
LOOKING AHEAD, ZONAL FLOW IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY,
WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY AREAS
EARLY SATURDAY AS THE EASTERN CONUS TRANSITIONS TO SYNOPTIC SCALE
TROUGHING. THERE'S NOT MUCH PHASING OF SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN STREAM
ENERGY WITH THIS SATURDAY IMPULSE, WITH THE FORECAST AREA LARGELY
SHOWN TO BE BENEATH CONFLUENT UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND A DRY REGION
BETWEEN TWO AREAS OF PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN/SOUTHERN
STREAM JETS FOR SATURDAY. WE HAVE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER A
LARGE CHUNK OF THE CWA ON SATURDAY MORNING AND THAT LOOKS PERFECTLY
REASONABLE TO ME AT THIS TIME.
ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL ENERGY AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT, FOR MORE CHANCES OF
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. THERE DOESN'T APPEAR TO BE ANY SEVERE STORMS OR
FLOODING CONCERNS WITH THIS SYSTEM, JUST SOME MUCH NEEDED WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL.
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS LARGELY DRY, BUT UPPER TROUGHING
CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN CONUS NEXT WEEK SO ADDITIONAL SYSTEMS AND
RAINFALL ARE AT LEAST POSSIBLE THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 723 PM EDT THU MAY 7 2026
CLOUDS WILL BE DISSIPATING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WITH CLEAR
SKIES LATE TONIGHT AND CALM WINDS, SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT IS
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY NEAR TRI. ANY FOG WILL CLEAR OUT SHORTLY
AFTER SUNRISE. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY
TOMORROW.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 47 74 52 79 / 0 0 10 20
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 43 72 51 77 / 0 0 10 20
OAK RIDGE, TN 42 72 50 77 / 0 0 10 20
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 39 69 46 73 / 0 0 0 10
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CD
AVIATION...MCD
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