009
FXUS64 KMRX 051812
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
112 PM EST THU MAR 5 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 107 PM EST THU MAR 5 2026
- VERY WARM FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
APPROACHING OR EXCEEDING DAILY RECORDS AT TIMES OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.
- SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL RETURN FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH THE BEST COVERAGE BEING LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT THE
CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS STILL LOOKS LIMITED IN OUR AREA.
- ANOTHER, POSSIBLY MORE DYNAMIC, SYSTEM IS EXPECTED BY MID WEEK
WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 107 PM EST THU MAR 5 2026
WE CONTINUE TO BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE ENERGY IS
SKIRTING BY TO OUR NORTHWEST TODAY AND A FEW SPOTS WILL SEE A
SHOWER, BUT MOST LOCATIONS WILL STAY DRY AND IT WILL BE WARM
ACROSS THE AREA. THE TEMPERATURE AT TRI IS ALREADY NEAR THE RECORD
HIGH FOR THIS DATE AS OF 1 PM EST. THE VERY WARM THEME IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH RECORD
HIGHS LOOKING TO BE UNDER THREAT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND POSSIBLY
AGAIN DURING THE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY PERIOD, ALTHOUGH THE
AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION COVERAGE/TIMING WILL
MATTER. RECORD HIGHS FOR THE WARMER DAYS ARE LISTED BELOW:
DAILY RECORD HIGH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
DATE CHATTANOOGA KNOXVILLE TRI-CITIES OAK RIDGE
03-05 80(1955) 78(2022) 77(2022) 78(1955)
03-06 82(1956) 79(2022) 79(2022) 81(1956)
03-07 82(2000) 80(1983) 79(1956) 80(1956)
03-09 82(2009) 82(1925) 79(2016) 80(1974)
03-10 81(2009) 81(2016) 82(2016) 81(2016)
03-11 81(2006) 81(2006) 78(2006) 80(1990)
AS FOR PRECIPITATION, MOISTURE WILL BE GRADUALLY INCREASING AND
MODELS SUGGEST THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS ON FRIDAY, ALTHOUGH MOST
LOCATIONS WILL STAY PRECIPITATION FREE. A MORE SIGNIFICANT CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION WILL ARRIVE DURING THE WEEKEND AS A STRONGER SHORT
WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND FLATTENS THE UPPER
RIDGE. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE TOWARD OUR AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST AND WILL PUSH INTO OUR AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. THE BETTER
FORCING AND LOW LEVEL JET WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE EXPECTED TO STAY WELL
TO OUR NORTH AND WEST, BUT WE WILL LIKELY SEE SOME MODEST CONVECTIVE
ENERGY AND ENOUGH FORCING/MOISTURE FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS GENERALLY SHOW
MLCAPE LESS THAN 1000 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR LESS THAN 30KTS AS
THE CONVECTION MOVES IN. WHILE A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO
SEVERE LATE SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE
PRIMARY THREAT, THE OVERALL CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS STILL LOOKS TO
BE ON THE LOW SIDE. HOWEVER, WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR HOW THIS SYSTEM
UNFOLDS FOR POSSIBLE INCREASES IN THE SEVERE THREAT.
WITH THE FRONT IN NO HURRY TO EXIT OUR AREA SUNDAY, ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED ESPECIALLY SOUTH
AND EAST CLOSER TO THE BOUNDARY WHICH WILL LIKELY STALL JUST TO OUR
SOUTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT. NOT MUCH DRYING WILL OCCUR FOR EARLY IN THE
WEEK, AND THE NBM KEEPS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
AROUND BOTH DAYS. MODELS ARE INDICATING THERE MAY BE A MORE DYNAMIC
SYSTEM APPROACHING NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY, WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS.
THIS SYSTEM WILL BEAR WATCHING FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS, BUT MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND IT IS STILL
MUCH TOO FAR OUT TO HAVE ANY CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OR DETAILS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1157 AM EST THU MAR 5 2026
A FEW SHOWERS AROUND MAINLY TYS AND PERHAPS TRI TODAY. MAY BE A
MVFR CIG DEVELOPMENT AT CHA LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW, BUT
PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE LOOKS A BIT TOO LOW TO INCLUDE FOR NOW
SO WILL JUST CARRY LOW VFR WITH A 2 KFT SCATTERED LAYER. WILL HAVE
A VFR FORECAST ALL SITES FOR THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY FROM
THE SOUTHWEST TODAY ESPECIALLY TYS, THEN LIGHTER WINDS TONIGHT
INTO TOMORROW.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 58 83 63 82 / 0 30 30 60
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 56 81 62 81 / 10 20 20 60
OAK RIDGE, TN 56 81 62 80 / 10 20 20 70
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 53 78 56 79 / 10 20 10 60
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...99
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