374
FXUS64 KMRX 042319
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
619 PM EST SUN JAN 4 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 606 PM EST SUN JAN 4 2026
- UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK. TEMPERATURES
WARMING CLIMBING TO AROUND 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
- BEST CHANCE OF RAINFALL WILL BE LATE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE.
- STRONG AND GUSTY MOUNTAIN WAVE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1236 PM EST SUN JAN 4 2026
KEY UPPER LEVEL FEATURE FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK WILL BE AN UPPER RIDGE
ACROSS THE UNITED STATES ESPECIALLY THE GULF COAST STATES AND
TENNESSEE VALLEY. UNSEASONABLY STRONG STRONG UPPER RIDGE/HEIGHTS
WILL PULL ANOMALY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE REGION WITH HIGHS IN THE
60S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 20 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.
A STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE MID-SECTION OF THE NATION
BY LATE WEEK PULLING GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE
FOR LATE THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY.
NOW FOR THE DETAILS...
FOR TONIGHT, A WEAK SHEAR AXIS IS FAST WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
INCREASE HIGH AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE
DEPARTING EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
FOR MONDAY, SURFACE RIDGING EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS WILL RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY PULLING UNSEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES IN THE AREA UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKY.
FOR TUESDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT, A FAST MOVING NORTHERN STREAM
SHORT-WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND UPPER OHIO VALLEY.
RETURN OF SOUTHERLY WINDS ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR SOME MOISTURE RETURN
INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. HOWEVER, MOISTURE WILL BE SHALLOW WITH
GULF ESSENTIALLY CLOSED OFF. INCREASING CLOUD COVER WITH SPRINKLES
OR SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE BUT LREF SHOWS LOW PROBABILITY
OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL.
FOR WEDNESDAY, CLOUD COVER MOVES EAST WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKY AND
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES.
FOR THURSDAY, MAIN FEATURE WILL BE A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT-WAVE AND
JET DYNAMICS LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS.
GOOD PRESSURE FALLS WILL INCREASE THE SOUTHERLY FLOW FROM THE GULF
INTO THE REGION WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND ISENTROPIC LIFT. SHOWER
CHANCES INCREASE THURSDAY AS WELL AS CHANCE OF THUNDER OVER
SOUTHEAST TENNESSEE DUE TO ELEVATED INSTABILITY.
FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING, THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. LREF AND
DETERMINISTIC MODELS SHOW A STRONG 850MB JET OF 50-60 KNOTS. STRONG
JET DYNAMIC FORCING AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL PRODUCE LIKELY CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST TENNESSEE AND
PLATEAU. MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY FOR THE D2
DROUGHT AREAS OF SOUTHEAST TENNESSEE.
ANOTHER ASPECT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL MOUNTAIN WAVE HIGH WIND EVENT.
HIGH WIND WATCH MAY BE NECESSARY FOR THE FAR EAST TENNESSEE
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.
COLDER AND MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY WITH
DRIER CONDITIONS.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 606 PM EST SUN JAN 4 2026
EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD AT ALL SITES ALONG
WITH LIGHT WINDS. HOWEVER, SOME GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING MVFR/IFR
LATE TONIGHT. DO NOT FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN TAFS
BASED ON THE DRIER AIR THAT MOVED IN EARLIER TODAY. JUST BE AWARE
A LOW END PROBABILITY DOES EXISTS FOR POOR FLIGHT CONDITIONS LATE
IN THE NIGHT AND CLOSER TO SUNRISE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 37 64 47 65 / 0 0 0 10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 34 63 44 65 / 0 0 0 10
OAK RIDGE, TN 34 61 45 63 / 0 0 0 10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 30 58 38 62 / 0 0 0 10
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DH
AVIATION...99
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