418
FXUS64 KMRX 271727
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
127 PM EDT MON APR 27 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 125 PM EDT MON APR 27 2026
- NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ANTICIPATED LATE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY, WITH LOW POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS. GUSTY
WINDS IN THE FOOTHILLS AND PORTIONS OF THE PLATEAU ARE LIKELY.
- AN ADDITIONAL ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. LOW POTENTIAL AGAIN FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS.
- LOW RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND, WITH COOLER WEATHER
ARRIVING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 245 AM EDT MON APR 27 2026
AT LEAST TWO ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER
THE NEXT THREE DAYS, PRIMARILY LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING,
AND AGAIN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THESE SHOULD GIVE
HEALTHY AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL TO MUCH OF THE REGION. ENVIRONMENT DOES
NOT LOOK OVERLY FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER TONIGHT, THOUGH WE'LL
WATCH IT ANYWAYS. LATE TIMING ARRIVAL FOR STORMS, LIKELY PAST
MIDNIGHT, MEANS A STOUT INVERSION WILL BE ALLOWED TO SET UP. THERE'S
STILL PLENTY OF MUCAPE AVAILABLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS, BUT NOT
CONFIDENT WE'LL SEE A SIGNIFICANT THREAT BEYOND SMALL HAIL, GUSTY
WINDS, AND LIGHTNING. WINDS ON THE PLATEAU, ESPECIALLY NORTHERN
PLATEAU, MAY BE GUSTING TO NEAR WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA IN ADVANCE OF
THE STORMS, AS WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL BE 40 KNOTS. ANY
STRONG CONVECTIVE DOWNDRAFT CAN ALSO GRAB A HOLD OF THIS LOW LEVEL
JET. MEANWHILE A STRONG TEMPERATURE GRADIENT IS LIKELY TO FUEL
STRONG WINDS IN THE MOUNTAIN WAVE PRONE FOOTHILLS, WITH GUSTS TO 40
MPH POSSIBLE.
SECOND DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A SECOND ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH THE COLD
FRONT, EFFECTING AN AIRMASS CHANGE IN OUR AREA. ONCE MORE WILL HAVE
TO WATCH FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS PERIOD, ALTHOUGH THE
LLJ IS WEAKER FOR THIS SECOND ROUND OF STORMS. EFFECTIVE SHEAR IS
STILL STRONG ENOUGH TO BE FAVORABLE FOR STORMS, THE BIGGEST QUESTION
IS STILL THE CAPE PROFILE AND LAPSE RATES. CURRENT SOUNDINGS
INDICATE RATHER POOR LAPSE RATES AND LOW CAPE, LIKELY A BIG LIMIT
FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL. THE IDEAL SOLUTION IS WE GET WIDESPREAD
BENEFICIAL RAINFALL.
POST FRONT, WE'LL TREND A LITTLE COOLER, WITH STILL THE POTENTIAL
FOR FROST EACH MORNING FROM FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND IN COOLER SPOTS
OF NORTHEAST TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. WE'VE ALSO BEEN
TRENDING STEADILY DRIER THURSDAY AND ONWARDS, WITH GUIDANCE
INDICATING LARGE MATURE TROUGHS FAR TO OUR NORTH, AND ACTIVE WEATHER
ALONG THE GULF COAST, KEEPING US STUCK IN THE MIDDLE.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 125 PM EDT MON APR 27 2026
MAIN AVIATION FORECAST CONCERN IS THE EXPECTED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. SOME OF THESE STORMS
COULD PRODUCE STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS. OTHERWISE, AS THE LINE OF
CONVECTION MOVES ACROSS THE REGION CEILING WILL DROP TO MARGINAL
MVFR CONDITIONS FROM 10-16Z.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 59 78 64 79 / 60 70 90 90
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 57 77 62 75 / 60 70 90 100
OAK RIDGE, TN 56 76 62 77 / 60 70 90 100
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 52 74 57 71 / 60 70 70 100
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-JOHNSON-SEVIER
SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST
MONROE-UNICOI.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DH
AVIATION...DH
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