748
FXUS64 KMRX 131723
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
123 PM EDT MON APR 13 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 121 PM EDT MON APR 13 2026
- A WARMING TREND WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH
THIS WEEK. RECORD HIGHS ARE POSSIBLE.
- THERE IS VERY LIMITED CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN WORSENING DROUGHT AND FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 121 PM EDT MON APR 13 2026
A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER FL/GULF/WESTERN
ATLANTIC THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD, WHICH WILL PROVIDE ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS TO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS AND TN VALLEY.
WE ARE SEEING A GOOD AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER TODAY FROM A JET STREAK
AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING BY TO OUR NORTH, BUT ONCE THAT PASSES
TO OUR EAST TONIGHT, MOSTLY SUNNY CLEAR WILL RETURN. HIGH TEMPS
TOMORROW WILL APPROACH RECORDS FOR THE DATE, WITH THE SAME EXPECTED
ON WEDNESDAY. LOW RH VALUES WILL BE OF CONCERN FOR FIRE WEATHER
INTERESTS, BOTTOMING OUT IN THE 25-35% RANGE BOTH DAYS FOR MOST
LOCATIONS, BUT THANKFULLY THE SW WINDS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 5-15
MPH RANGE. WITH THESE LIGHTER WINDS, WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE THE NEED
FOR ANY FIRE DANGER STATEMENTS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
MODELS SHOW THE RIDGE DRIFTING SOUTHWARD A BIT ON THURSDAY, ALLOWING
A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND JET STREAK TO CROSS THE REGION. NBM HAS
BEEN TRENDING HIGHER WITH RAIN CHANCES, WHICH ARE NOW IN THE CHANCE
RANGE NORTH OF I-40 THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOOKING AT THE
NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS THURSDAY AFTERNOON, THERE IS A STRONG STABLE
AND DRY LAYER THAT WILL HAVE TO BE OVERCOME FOR ANY MEASUREABLE
PRECIP, LEADING TO SKEPTICISM OF THE NBM POPS. DON'T GET YOUR HOPES
UP FOR ANY MEAINGFUL RAINFALL JUST YET. HIGHS WILL BE PUSHING NEAR
RECORDS AGAIN ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE RIDGE AMPLIFIES
NORTHWARD AGAIN. BETTER RAIN CHANCES MAY EXIST ON SUNDAY AS MODELS
SHOW A DEEPER TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS THAT COULD PUSH A
COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA.
DAILY RECORD HIGH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
DATE CHATTANOOGA KNOXVILLE TRI-CITIES OAK RIDGE
04-14 87(2010) 86(1887) 85(1938) 88(2017)
04-15 87(2006) 87(1936) 85(1945) 86(2024)
04-16 89(2002) 87(1896) 87(2002) 88(2002)
04-17 91(1955) 90(1896) 85(2002) 88(1955)
04-18 90(2002) 90(1896) 87(2002) 89(2002)
04-19 91(2002) 90(1941) 90(1941) 90(2002)
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 121 PM EDT MON APR 13 2026
GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN AVIATION IMPACT THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON, REACHING AROUND 25 KT. WINDS WILL DROP UNDER 10 KT
AROUND 21-23Z, THEN INCREASE AGAIN TOMORROW AROUND NOON, WITH
GUSTS TO 20 KT POSSIBLE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 60 87 59 88 / 0 0 0 0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 60 85 60 87 / 0 10 0 0
OAK RIDGE, TN 58 85 58 87 / 10 10 0 0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 54 83 57 85 / 10 10 0 0
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DGS
AVIATION...DGS
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