502
FXUS64 KMRX 282304 AAA
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
604 PM EST FRI NOV 28 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 558 PM EST FRI NOV 28 2025
- DRY AND COLDER WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH SATURDAY.
- A SYSTEM WILL BRING A RETURN OF RAIN CHANCES AND GUSTY WINDS FOR
THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. HIGHER
ELEVATION AREAS MAY SEE A BRIEF WINTRY MIX EARLY SUNDAY AND
AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT, BUT IMPACTS ARE FORECAST TO BE MINIMAL OR
NONE.
- ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BRING PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY. SOME NORTHERN AREAS, INCLUDING HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA, MAY BEGIN AS SNOW MONDAY
NIGHT. ALL RAIN IS EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH A GRADUAL CHANGEOVER TO
SNOW LATE TUESDAY ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
- DRY AGAIN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASING ONCE AGAIN ON FRIDAY INTO NEXT SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1201 PM EST FRI NOV 28 2025
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EASTWARD ON SATURDAY WITH WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW
RETURNING DURING THE AFTERNOON. INCREASING ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL
RESULT IN INCREASING CLOUDS SATURDAY EVENING AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOME VIRGA AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE
IN PROBABILITY OVERNIGHT WITH LIKELY PROBABILITIES FOR
PRECIPITATION AREA-WIDE BY SUNDAY MORNING AT SUNRISE. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING, SO RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BE THE PREDOMINANT
PRECIPITATION TYPE. SOME NON-IMPACTFUL LIGHT WINTRY MIX WILL BE
POSSIBLE ON THE LEADING EDGE SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS AND FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA, BUT LITTLE TO NO IMPACTS ARE
EXPECTED.
COLDER AIR MOVES BACK INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT, BUT WITH DRIER AIR
QUICKLY ARRIVING, LIMITED OROGRAPHIC PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
A SOUTHERLY TRACK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
MID-SOUTH AHEAD OF A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND GREAT PLAINS. AT THIS TIME, COLD AIR IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO RESULT IN MUCH WINTRY WEATHER
ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY OR SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. ALL RAIN IS
EXPECTED IN THE VALLEY AND LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF
WINTRY MIX POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS LATE MONDAY NIGHT
BEFORE A SWITCH TO ALL RAIN DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. NO IMPACTS
ARE EXPECTED. BY TUESDAY EVENING AND NIGHT, NORTHWEST FLOW
DEVELOPS BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH SOME LIGHT
OROGRAPHIC SNOW EXPECTED ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE EAST
TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA MOUNTAINS. LIMITED ACCUMULATIONS
ARE ANTICIPATED WITH ONLY MINOR IMPACTS ACROSS THE HIGHEST
TERRAIN.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE REGION MID-WEEK WITH DRY WEATHER
ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY IMPACT
THE REGION NEXT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, BUT TIMING AND TRACK IS
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.
WITH LONGWAVE TROUGHING MUCH OF THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS FOR
THE UPCOMING WEEK, TEMPERATURES REMAIN 5 TO 12 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING 7 DAYS.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 604 PM EST FRI NOV 28 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE 00Z TAF PERIOD. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST ALONG THE TN/KY STATE LINE THROUGH LATE
THIS EVENING, THEN EAST OF THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN OVERNIGHT.
RESULTING WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT KTRI AND KTYS FOR
MUCH OF THE PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH EXTENDS SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAINS
INTO GEORGIA BY MIDDAY SAT, WHICH WILL TURN WINDS TO THE SE AT
KCHA WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLE BY THE AFTERNOON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 47 27 51 41 / 0 0 0 60
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 43 23 50 36 / 0 0 0 50
OAK RIDGE, TN 42 23 48 36 / 0 0 0 60
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 37 20 48 33 / 0 0 0 30
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JB
AVIATION...CD
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