371
FXUS64 KMRX 091734
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
134 PM EDT MON MAR 9 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 133 PM EDT MON MAR 9 2026
- CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS STORMS COULD IMPACT CHATTANOOGA AND
SURROUNDING AREAS THIS EVENING
- A WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH NEAR RECORD
HIGH TEMPERATURES AGAIN.
- CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
AND THEN AGAIN BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO
SEVERE WEDNESDAY NIGHT, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE PLATEAU.
- LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ON THURSDAY,
FOLLOWED BY COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS AREA-WIDE. THEN, ANOTHER
WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 133 PM EDT MON MAR 9 2026
FOG WAS STUBBORN TO DISSIPATE THIS MORNING WITH LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
HELPING TO KEEP IT IN PLACE, WHICH HAS CAUSED SOME LOCATIONS TO WARM
UP RATHER SLOWLY COMPARED TO OTHERS. LOOKING TO OUR WEST WE CAN SEE
A GROUP OF THUNDERSTORMS IN ARKANSAS WHICH WILL TRY AND MAKE IT'S
WAY EASTWARD THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. BASED ON CAMS AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS THE STORMS LOOK LIKELY TO STAY CLOSER TO THE 60+ DEW
POINT LINE, WHICH SHOULD KEEP THEM MOSTLY OUT OF SOUTHEAST
TENNESSEE. BUT WE COULD SEE THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THESE STORMS STAY
NORTH OF THE STATE LINE AND IMPACT CHATTANOOGA, AND SURROUNDING
AREAS AROUND (OR JUST AFTER) SUNSET. ENVIRONMENT NORTH OF THE STATE
LINE LOOKS MARGINAL FOR STRONG STORMS, BUT CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE
OUT A ROGUE WIND GUST OVER 40MPH IF THE STORMS BECOME A BIT MORE
LINEAR. ANOTHER ROUND OF MUCH LIGHTER SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE ALONG I-40 AND SOUTH ON
TUESDAY.
DAILY RECORD HIGH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
DATE CHATTANOOGA KNOXVILLE TRI-CITIES OAK RIDGE
03-10 81(2009) 81(2016) 82(2016) 81(2016)
03-11 81(2006) 81(2006) 78(2006) 80(1990)
BY LATE TUESDAY, ATTENTION SHIFTS TO THE NORTHWEST AS THE SOUTHERN
AND NORTHERN JET STREAMS MERGE AND A STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW MOVES
INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY WEDNESDAY. A ROBUST LOW‑LEVEL JET AND AN
EXPANSIVE WARM SECTOR WILL EXTEND ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.S.
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM’S COLD FRONT. THIS SETUP CONTINUES TO SUPPORT
THE BROAD SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL HIGHLIGHTED IN RECENT OUTLOOKS.
MOST MODELS SUGGESTS A QLCS SWEEPING THROUGH THE REGION BETWEEN
MIDNIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. INSTABILITY REMAINS LIMITED,
GENERALLY BELOW 250 J/KG. BUT THERE WILL BE STRONG DIRECTIONAL
SHEAR, ESPECIALLY IN THE LOWEST LEVELS. WINDS AT 850 MB APPEAR
AROUND 40-45 KT, WHICH IS SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT A SEVERE THREAT IF
ADEQUATE INSTABILITY IS PRESENT. THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA CARRIES THE HIGHER RISK FOR SEVERE CONVECTION AS INSTABILITY
DECREASES FARTHER EAST, AND WILL LIKELY OCCUR LATER IN THE NIGHT.
AT THIS STAGE DAMAGING WINDS LOOK LIKE THE PRIMARY THREAT, BUT AN
ISOLATED BRIEF TORNADO REMAINS POSSIBLE.
THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH AROUND, OR SHORTLY BEFORE
SUNRISE THURSDAY, USHERING IN MUCH COLDER AIR. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR
A TRANSITION TO LIGHT SNOW IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. MODEL SOLUTIONS
VARY ON HOW LONG MOISTURE LINGERS INTO THE DAY, BUT THERE APPEARS TO
BE ENOUGH FOR LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS IN THE HIGHEST TERRAIN. OTHERWISE,
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND KEEPS CONDITIONS DRY THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK.
ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND, BUT ITS MAIN IMPACT LOCALLY WILL BE A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY
FLOW WHILE DRY AIR PERSISTS. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB BACK ABOVE
NORMAL BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 133 PM EDT MON MAR 9 2026
A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY IMPACT KCHA AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT WITH
STRONG WINDS AS THE PRIMARY HAZARD. ANOTHER ROUND OF WEAKER SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE IN TOMORROW TO IMPACT KCHA/KTYS
BUT ISOLATED NATURE GIVES LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF IMPACTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 62 78 65 81 / 70 50 10 30
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 60 77 64 81 / 60 50 30 40
OAK RIDGE, TN 60 76 64 80 / 60 50 30 40
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 51 75 58 79 / 20 40 20 40
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...99
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