164
FXUS64 KMRX 162316
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
716 PM EDT SAT MAY 16 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 713 PM EDT SAT MAY 16 2026
- VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THE REST OF THIS WEEKEND INTO
THIS UPCOMING WEEK. MANY PLACES WILL REACH NEAR 90 DEGREES SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY.
- MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURN WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 231 PM EDT SAT MAY 16 2026
CURRENTLY THIS AFTERNOON, QUASI-ZONAL FLOW IS IN PLACE ALOFT WITH
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES ALOFT AND TROUGHING OVER THE ROCKIES. THE UPPER
JET IS OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH THE BERMUDA HIGH STRENGTHENING TO
OUR EAST. THIS HAS PROMOTED INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND THE
CONTINUATION OF DRY AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. WITH BETTER MOISTURE
AND UPPER-LEVEL FLOW, CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO OUR NORTH BUT
REMAINING DRY IN OUR AREA. ON SUNDAY, TROUGHING TO THE WEST WILL
ADVANCE THROUGH THE ROCKIES, LEADING TO INCREASING RIDGING IN THE
EASTERN U.S. 500MB HEIGHTS WILL RISE TO 5,860M, NEAR THE NORMALS FOR
SUMMER, PUSHING HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR 90 ACROSS MANY PLACES.
ON MONDAY, TROUGHING WILL EJECT OUT OF THE ROCKIES WITH AN INITIAL
SURFACE LOW TRACKING UP INTO CANADA. THIS WILL SOON BE FOLLOWED BY A
SECONDARY LOW THAT TRACKS INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY TUESDAY. AS
MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED IN OUR AREA, MOST PLACES WILL STAY DRY ON
BOTH DAYS, OUTSIDE OF ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION ALONG THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. THE CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW AND HEIGHT RISES WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES NEAR 90 DEGREES FOR MANY AREAS.
MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES RETURN BY WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SECONDARY LOW APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST, IN
ADDITION TO MOISTURE ADVECTION. WITH THE FRONT INDICATED TO LINGER
AROUND THE REGION, OFF AND ON SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR
SOUTH THE FRONT WILL PROGRESS, WHICH WOULD IMPACT THE COVERAGE AND
OVERALL RAIN TOTALS. BUT, HOPEFULLY THIS PATTERN CAN PROVIDE
DESPERATELY-NEEDED RAIN WITH THE ENVIRONMENT NOT SUPPORTIVE OF
ANYTHING TOO ORGANIZED IN OUR AREA.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 713 PM EDT SAT MAY 16 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. HIGH CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT TOMORROW
MORNING. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 62 90 65 89 / 0 10 10 20
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 61 90 65 90 / 0 10 0 10
OAK RIDGE, TN 60 89 63 89 / 0 10 10 10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 57 87 60 90 / 0 0 0 20
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION...MCD
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