325
FXUS64 KMRX 261720
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1220 PM EST FRI DEC 26 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1103 AM EST FRI DEC 26 2025
- UNSEASONABLE WARM WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NEAR RECORD
TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE IN CHATTANOOGA.
- LOW RAIN CHANCES TODAY AND TONIGHT IN NORTHERN SECTIONS, WITH BETTER
CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT.
- STRONG GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND
FOOTHILLS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
- MUCH COLDER AIRMASS MOVES INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1103 AM EST FRI DEC 26 2025
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES
CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF A SUBTLE
SHORTWAVE. THIS IS RESULTING IN SOUTHWEST LOW- LEVEL FLOW NEAR
THE SURFACE WITHIN BROAD UPPER-LEVEL W-NW FLOW. THIS WARM, MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER AIRMASS AND WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS THE REGION
WILL KEEP US CLOUDY THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN LOW, AND WHAT PRECIPITATION DOES
OCCUR, WILL BE VERY LIGHT RAIN OF A TRACE TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF
AN INCH.
THIS SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY WITH SHORTWAVE
RIDGING ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH
CONTINUED MUCH ABOVE NORMAL, WARM CONDITIONS. NEAR RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH THE
ANOMALOUS RIDGING ACROSS THE AREA.
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL AMPLIFY LONGWAVE
TROUGHING ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS WITH A STRONG
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD AND MOVE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM, STRONG
WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND FOOTHILLS. THE
850MB LLJ WILL BE SW AT 50 TO 60 KT, BUT WITH A WEAKER PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS, MOUNTAIN WAVE WINDS ARE NOT
CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE SIGNIFICANT. HOWEVER, STRONG GRADIENT
WINDS ARE STILL EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION AND THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS WHERE A WIND ADVISORY OR HIGH WIND WATCH MAY BE NEEDED
IN FUTURE UPDATES FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AREA-WIDE.
PRECIPITATION TOTALS HAVE BEEN TRENDING DOWN WITH THIS SYSTEM AS
THE PRIMARY UPPER JET DYNAMICS CONTINUE TO SHIFT NORTH TOWARDS THE
GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST CONUS. MOST OF OUR FORCING FOR LIFT WILL
BE DIRECTLY ALONG THE COLD FRONT WITH A RELATIVELY NARROW BAND OF
RAINFALL EXPECTED. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, NW FLOW WILL RESULT IN
SOME OROGRAPHIC PRECIPITATION AND NW FLOW SNOWFALL ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS. SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN IS FORECAST TO BE LIGHT AND LIMITED.
HIGH PRESSURE AND MUCH COLDER AIR ARRIVES NEXT WEEK WITH NEAR
NORMAL AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE BACK TO WHAT WE NORMALLY SEE IN LATE DECEMBER AND EARLY JANUARY
WITH THIS COLD, DRY AIRMASS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1103 AM EST FRI DEC 26 2025
MVFR CONDITIONS, WITH A VARIABLE BKN/SCT 2-3K FT CLOUD DECK, ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AT MOST
SITES. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND FROM THE S/SW. CONDITIONS WILL
GRADUALLY IMPROVE LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH VFR CONDITIONS
BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 58 74 60 73 / 10 0 10 10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 58 71 55 73 / 30 0 10 10
OAK RIDGE, TN 56 69 55 70 / 30 0 10 10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 54 66 47 67 / 60 0 0 0
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JB
AVIATION...JB
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