736
FXUS64 KMRX 121103
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
703 AM EDT SUN APR 12 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 700 AM EDT SUN APR 12 2026
- A WARMING TREND WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH
THIS WEEK. RECORD HIGHS ARE POSSIBLE.
- DRY WEATHER IS LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH NEXT WEEK, WORSENING
DROUGHT AND FIRE CONDITIONS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 229 AM EDT SUN APR 12 2026
THE FORECAST CAN BE CHARACTERIZED BY SE RIDGING AND A STRONG SURFACE
HIGH OVER NEW ENGLAND, THAT WILL EVENTUALLY MEANDER TO JUST OFF THE
COAST OF THE MID-ATLANTIC. WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL PRIMARILY ROUND THE
TOP OF THE RIDGE, KEEPING OUR AREA FROM SEEING MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL
INTO THE COMING WEEK. WITH HIGH PRESSURE EVENTUALLY SITUATING TO OUR
EAST, SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL SEND IN MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE
COMING DAYS. SOME MAY SEE THEIR FIRST 90 DEGREE READING OF THE
YEAR/SEASON. ANY DAY WITH LOW RHS IN THE AFTERNOON AND REALLY GOOD
ATMOSPHERIC MIXING, COULD SEE TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES
WARMER THAN GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. A TABLE OF DAILY RECORD HIGHS WILL BE
AT THE BOTTOM OF THIS DISCUSSION, AS RECORDS COULD BE TIED OR BROKEN.
THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH PERSISTENT DRY CONDITONS SINCE EASTER, FOR
MOST, WILL BE AN INCREASING THREAT FOR FIRE WEATHER; WITH
TEMPERATURES CONTINUALLY WARMING AND NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE
RETURN. MINIMUM RHS WILL MOSTLY FALL IN THE 20 AND 30 PERCENT RANGE.
SW WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND MOST LIKELY
REMAIN IN THAT GENERAL DIRECTION MUCH OF THE WEEK. SOUTHWEST WINDS
TEND TO BE A FAVORABLE DIRECTION WITH A FUNNELING-LIKE EFFECT UP
VALLEY, THUS, CREATING STRONGER GUSTS. GUSTS UP TO AROUND 25 MPH
POSSIBLE TODAY, INCREASING TO NEAR 30 MPH TOMORROW. SPC FIRE PLACED
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA UNDER AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER THREAT DUE
TO WINDS, LOW RH, AND DRY FUELS. EVEN THOUGH WINDS WILL BE STRONGER
TOMORROW, INCREASED CLOUD COVER MAY KEEP RHS FROM WORSENING WITH
MIXING HEIGHTS FORECAST TO BE A FEW THOUSAND FEET LOWER.
ANY CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION AT ALL? A COUPLE OF SHOWERS THAT
DEVELOPED YESTERDAY WERE ABLE TO SPIT OUT UP TO AROUND TWO
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH ACROSS A PORTION OF NORTHEAST TN, IF YOU CAN
BELIEVE WHAT WAS RECORDED. TODAY WILL BE DRY, BUT IT'S POSSIBLE OUR
NORTHWESTERN FRINGES GET BRUSHED BY LIGHT PRECIPITATION TOMORROW AND
TUESDAY. A FRONT WILL TRY TO DEVELOP AND PUNCH THROUGH THE RIDGE BY
THE END OF THE WEEK, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON JUST HOW MUCH
PRECIPITATION COULD FALL. QPF IN VERY DRY PATTERNS TENDS TO GET CUT
DOWN ONCE CLOSER TO THE EVENT. THE LREF SHOWS NO MORE THAN A 40
PERCENT CHANCE OF GREATER THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. AND THAT'S ONLY FOR THE NORTHERN PLATEAU INTO SW VA. THE
NEXT BEST CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD RAIN FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
DOESN'T APPEAR TO BE UNTIL JUST OUTSIDE THE FORECAST RANGE, PERHAPS
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DAILY RECORD HIGH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
DATE CHATTANOOGA KNOXVILLE TRI-CITIES OAK RIDGE
04-12 89(1887) 87(1930) 84(1945) 87(1948)
04-13 88(1887) 89(1887) 86(1981) 86(2017)
04-14 87(2010) 86(1887) 85(1938) 88(2017)
04-15 87(2006) 87(1936) 85(1945) 86(2024)
04-16 89(2002) 87(1896) 87(2002) 88(2002)
04-17 91(1955) 90(1896) 85(2002) 88(1955)
04-18 90(2002) 90(1896) 87(2002) 89(2002)
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 700 AM EDT SUN APR 12 2026
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
BECOME BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 15 TO 25 KTS
POSSIBLE AT TYS AND CHA. GUSTS WILL TAPER OFF IN THE EVENING, WITH
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS TONIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 88 62 83 60 / 0 0 0 0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 88 62 82 61 / 0 0 10 0
OAK RIDGE, TN 87 60 82 59 / 0 0 10 0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 85 57 79 56 / 0 0 10 0
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KS
AVIATION...KRS
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