757
FXUS64 KMRX 262329
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
729 PM EDT SAT SEP 26 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 724 PM EDT SAT SEP 26 2026
- FALL-LIKE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY, BUT A NOTABLE
WARM UP IS EXPECTED TUESDAY ONWARD, WITH TEMPERATURES RISING
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
- DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK. RAIN
CHANCES MAY RETURN BY FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 136 PM EDT SAT SEP 26 2026
THERE'S REALLY NOT MUCH TO TALK ABOUT FOR MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK.
AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM TEXAS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS
MORNING, WITH AN UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED NOR'EASTER OFF THE
NORTHEAST COASTLINE THIS MORNING. THIS BASIC CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE AND
EASTERN CONUS TROUGH PATTERN, HOLDS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE
THE RIDGE SHIFTS TO THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN AND SOUTHEAST CONUS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND AN UPPER LOW SETTLES OVER
THE PLAINS.
AS FAR AS SENSIBLE WEATHER GOES LOCALLY, PLEASANT FALL TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY, WITH A NOTABLE WARMING TREND EXPECTED
TUESDAY ONWARD AS THE RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD. HIGHS EXTENDING SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL LOOK LIKELY BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. DRY
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK. THE
PLAINS UPPER LOW LOOKS TO OPEN UP AND EJECT ENE SOMETIME THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, WITH ASSOCIATED BROAD SSW LOW LEVEL FLOW PULLING
MOISTURE NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF INTO THE GREATER TENNESSEE VALLEY
AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION. CURRENT NBM GUIDANCE BRINGS RAIN
CHANCES BACK INTO THE MIX IN EARNEST BY FRIDAY. WHILE THAT'S
PLAUSIBLE, THERE'S ENOUGH DISAGREEMENT IN GUIDANCE TO NOT BUY INTO
RAIN CHANCES THAT FAR OUT JUST YET, PLUS EXPERIENCE SUGGESTS THESE
TYPES OF PATTERNS BREAK DOWN SLOWER THAN EXPECTED. ALL OF THAT TO
SAY, MAYBE CHECK THE FORECAST IN THE COMING DAYS AND DON'T BANK OF
NEXT WEEKEND BEING A WASHOUT JUST YET.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 724 PM EDT SAT SEP 26 2026
FOLLOWED A PERSISTENCE FORECAST WITH TEMPO IFR CONDITIONS AT TRI
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE, PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE
NORTH BETWEEN 5 TO 10KTS TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WHILE NOT EXPECTED
TO BE PREDOMINANT, OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 15-20KTS DURING PEAK
MIXING HOURS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 54 84 53 85 / 0 0 0 0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 49 77 50 78 / 0 0 0 0
OAK RIDGE, TN 49 79 50 79 / 0 0 0 0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 45 74 46 75 / 0 0 0 0
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CD
AVIATION...KRS
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