944
FXUS64 KMRX 150518
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
118 AM EDT WED JUL 15 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 116 AM EDT WED JUL 15 2026
- ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE MAINLY SOUTH OF I-40 THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- BY THURSDAY, SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE MORE SCATTERED SOUTH OF
I- 40 AND ISOLATED TO THE NORTH.
- BETTER SHOWER AND STORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED FRI, SAT AND SUN
AS A TROUGH MOVES INTO THE EASTERN U.S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 116 AM EDT WED JUL 15 2026
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE MORE ISOLATED TODAY WITH ACTIVITY
MAINLY CONFINED TO SOUTH OF I-40. A LINGERING STATIONARY BOUNDARY
REMAINS OVER NORTHERN GA/AL TODAY. IN THE UPPER LEVELS, A RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE MID-ATLANTIC. SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL BE MORE ISOLATED TODAY WITH ACTIVITY MAINLY CONFINED TO SOUTH
OF I-40. A TYPICAL SUMMER AIR MASS IS IN PLACE TODAY WITH GOOD
INSTABILITY AND GOOD MOISTURE AVAILABILITY (PWAT VALUES NEAR 2
INCHES). SEVERE THREAT SEEMS LOW LIKE A TYPICAL SUMMER DAY. THE
THREAT FOR FLOODING ISSUES IS LOW BUT NONZERO. STEERING FLOW IS
AROUND 10 KNOTS. WITH LOWER RAIN CHANCES, TEMPS WILL BE WARMER AND
CLOSE TO NORMAL.
THURSDAY LOOKS SIMILAR WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
MAINLY SOUTH OF I-40. A RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM THE CAROLINAS TO THE
LOWER MIDWEST BY THURSDAY AND REMNANTS OF THE LINGERING SURFACE
BOUNDARY OR A SURFACE TROUGH MAY BE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.
THE PATTERN WILL CHANGE FOR THIS WEEKEND AS A TROUGH DIGS INTO THE
EAST COAST, ALTHOUGH WEAK THIS FAR SOUTH. A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING BRINGING HIGHER CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
AT THE SURFACE, A BOUNDARY MAY MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY SUNDAY.
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED FRIDAY,
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WPC HAS INTRODUCED A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE
RAIN FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, SO FLOODING ISSUES MAY BE A CONCERN IF
THIS PATTERN HOLDS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 116 AM EDT WED JUL 15 2026
FOG/LOW CIG POTENTIAL EARLY IN THE FORECAST IS STILL UNCERTAIN,
BUT MVFR CIGS LOOK LIKELY TO DEVELOP AT CHA AND THERE IS ENOUGH OF
A CHANCE FOR FOG AND/OR LOW CIGS AT TYS AND TRI TO WARRANT A
TEMPO MVFR GROUP BOTH SITES. LOWER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE. MAINLY
VFR REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD, ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS AROUND MAINLY CHA THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOWER CONDITIONS TO IMPACT THE TERMINAL. WILL
INCLUDE A PROB30 THUNDER GROUP AT CHA THIS AFTERNOON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 87 72 90 73 / 40 10 40 10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 89 73 90 74 / 10 10 30 20
OAK RIDGE, TN 89 72 90 73 / 10 10 30 20
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 90 68 92 71 / 0 0 10 10
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MCD
AVIATION...99
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