227
FXUS64 KMRX 181723
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1223 PM EST TUE NOV 18 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1200 PM EST TUE NOV 18 2025
- LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH INCREASING
WINDS. THIS WILL LEAD TO ENHANCED FIRE DANGER.
- WARMER, ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TUESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY, WITH WARMEST DAYS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
- LIGHT RAINFALL TONIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON,
WITH MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN COVERAGE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1200 PM EST TUE NOV 18 2025
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE TODAY AND THE FLOW WILL TURN MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE.
LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT IN LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND INCREASING WINDS,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA, WILL BRING ANOTHER DAY OF ENHANCED FIRE
DANGER ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY TONIGHT WITH A SURFACE FRONT MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. A MAJORITY OF THE SYNOPTIC ASCENT IS
NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA, SO PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR REGION IS
FORECAST TO BE MORE SCATTERED/LESS WIDESPREAD WITH PRIMARY FORCING
DIRECTLY ALONG THE FRONT. WITH LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF
THE FRONT, THE SURFACE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN COOL AND STABLE. ANY
LIMITED INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ELEVATED. WHILE THERE
IS A LOW CHANCE FOR AN ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM, THE MAJORITY OF
PRECIPITATION TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING IS EXPECTED TO BE
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. WITH A 850MB LLJ AROUND 50 KT THIS EVENING
ACROSS KENTUCKY THROUGH SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA, SOME HIGHER ELEVATIONS
WILL HAVE WIND GUSTS UP TO AROUND 40 MPH.
WE DRY OUT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING ACROSS THE
REGION. AS TROUGHING AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS
AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES, WE WILL BE WITHIN SW FLOW ALOFT WITH
ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASING ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY. THIS
WILL INCREASE CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR LIGHT STRATIFORM RAIN
SHOWERS LATE ON THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES REMAIN WARM ON WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR RECORD VALUES, ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF KNOXVILLE.
DAILY RECORD HIGH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
DATE CHATTANOOGA KNOXVILLE TRI-CITIES OAK RIDGE
11-18 79(2016) 80(1985) 79(1958) 77(2016)
11-19 77(1985) 83(1985) 78(1985) 80(1985)
11-20 78(1942) 80(1906) 75(1988) 74(1992)
AS THE PRIMARY SHORTWAVE VORT MAX MOVES ACROSS THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT, CHANCES FOR RAIN, AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS, WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION. BEHIND THE
DEPARTING SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE FRONT, WE BEGIN TO DRY OUT BY LATE
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
DRIER WEATHER IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AHEAD
OF A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS AND MOVE OUR DIRECTION BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM EST TUE NOV 18 2025
VFR THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO LOW CIGS AT ALL
SITES TONIGHT AS SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. MVFR
THEN PERSISTS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD, EXCEPT CHA WHERE A
RETURN TO VFR IS FORECAST LATE IN THE PERIOD. AT TYS, GUSTY SOUTHERLY
WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. AT TRI, LLWS IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT. SURFACE WINDS AT TYS SHOULD BE HIGH ENOUGH THAT LLWS
CRITERIA ISN'T MET BUT WILL BE BORDERLINE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 59 76 55 76 / 70 10 0 10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 56 71 53 71 / 80 10 10 10
OAK RIDGE, TN 54 70 52 69 / 90 10 10 10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 49 63 51 66 / 80 10 10 0
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JB
AVIATION...99
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