552
FXUS64 KMRX 110638
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
238 AM EDT FRI SEP 11 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 237 AM EDT FRI SEP 11 2026
MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE DRY TODAY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS
MAINLY IN THE NORTH.
- SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE BEST DAY FOR SHOWER AND STORM COVERAGE.
THEN MORE ISOLATED AGAIN ON SUNDAY. SATURDAY, LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS THE MAIN THREAT DUE TO ELEVATED PW VALUES OF AROUND 2
INCHES.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
YESTERDAY, CHA TIED THE RECORD FOR CONSECUTIVE DAYS AT OR ABOVE
90 DEG SET BACK IN 1993. WITH DRIER CONDITIONS NOW EXPECTED FOR
TODAY, THE PROBABILITY THAT CHA BREAKS THE RECORD, WITH DAY 39,
IS VERY HIGH.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 237 AM EDT FRI SEP 11 2026
IN THE UPPER LEVELS, A WEAK RIDGE REMAINS OVER GA/SC AS A TROUGH
DEVELOPS OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE, THE SLOW
MOVING WEAK COLD FRONT IS OVER KENTUCKY SLOWLY DRIFTING SOUTHWARD.
SHOWERS AND MAYBE A FEW STORMS WILL BE ISOLATED TODAY, MAINLY IN THE
UPPER CUMBERLAND PLATEAU AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AS THE DECAYING
FRONT LINGERS. INSTABILITY WILL BE A LITTLE HIGHER TODAY AROUND 500-
1000 J/KG. SOME THUNDER AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
STRONGER STORMS.
RAIN CHANCES ARE THE HIGHEST SATURDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO
THE REGION. THE WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL ALSO BE LINGERING OVER OR
NEAR THE REGION ON SATURDAY. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ADVECTION IS LIKELY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC BRINGING SOUTHERLY SURFACE
WINDS AND A TROUGH TO THE WEST BRINGING HIGHER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM
THE GULF. NBM HAS VERY HIGH RAIN CHANCES ON SATURDAY WITH WAVES OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLY STARTING BEFORE NOON.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE SATURDAY WITH
GOOD INSTABILITY AROUND 2000-2500 J/KG. WITH WEAK SHEAR AND HIGH
FREEZING LEVELS THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE GUSTY WINDS. WITH GOOD
MOISTURE ADVECTION, PWAT VALUES WILL BE ELEVATED AROUND 2 INCHES ON
SATURDAY SO HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE LIKELY AT TIMES THAT MAY CAUSE
SOME ISOLATED FLOODING. STEERING FLOW AROUND 10-15 KNOTS SHOULD HELP
KEEP SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING, SO OVERALL THE FLOODING THREAT IS
LOW.
BY SUNDAY, THE SHORTWAVE HAS MOVED EAST AND A WEAK RIDGE BUILDS INTO
THE SOUTHEAST. THEREFORE, SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE MORE ISOLATED
ON SUNDAY LINGERING TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST NEAR THE MOUNTAINS.
EARLY NEXT WEEK, A RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHEAST. MONDAY LOOKS
DRY WITH LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURNING TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY IN AND NEAR THE EAST TENNESSEE MOUNTAINS. TENNESSEE VALLEY
LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY. THURSDAY RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ISOLATED IN
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND MAYBE SCATTERED IN AND NEAR THE TERRAIN.
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD
WITH MAINLY UPPER 80S EXPECTED NEAR TRI-CITIES AND LOWER 90S FOR
KNOXVILLE AND CHATTANOOGA AREAS, GENERALLY ABOUT 6 TO 8 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. CHATTANOOGA IS EXPECTED TO EXCEED 90 DEGREES AGAIN
TODAY. IF THAT HAPPENS, THEY WILL BREAK THE RECORD FOR CONSECUTIVE
DAYS WITH A HIGH TEMP OF 90 OR GREATER. THE CURRENT RECORD IS 38
DAYS BACK IN 1993. THE STREAK MAY BE BROKEN ON SATURDAY WITH THE
FORECAST AT 88 FOR CHATTANOOGA SINCE CONVECTION MAY BEGIN IN THE
MORNING HOURS. IF THE TIMING ENDS UP LATER OR COVERAGE IS NOT AS
WIDESPREAD AS EXPECTED, THE STREAK MAY CONTINUE.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 112 AM EDT FRI SEP 11 2026
OVERALL, QUIET AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF
THE NIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR FOG
AT TRI, BUT IT WAS LEFT OUT OF THE TAF AT THIS TIME. DURING THE
DAY ON FRIDAY, A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN BUT ARE
LIKELY TO STAY NORTH AND WEST OF THE TAF SITES. GENERALLY LIGHT
SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH CLOUDS BETWEEN
5,000 AND 10,000 FEET AGL.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 96 72 88 71 / 30 50 90 30
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 93 72 87 69 / 10 20 90 60
OAK RIDGE, TN 93 70 86 68 / 10 20 90 50
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 88 67 85 66 / 10 10 70 70
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MCD
AVIATION...BW
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