700
FXUS64 KMRX 211151
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
751 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 749 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2026
- SCATTERED SHOWERS, AND A FEW STORMS, CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT
AND INTO THE LATE MORNING HOURS. THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER IS
LITTLE TO NONE.
- CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
- ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS APPEAR UNLIKELY DURING THIS FORECAST
PERIOD, BUT THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH STORMS EACH DAY WILL BE
LIGHTNING, LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, AND SOME GUSTY WINDS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2026
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO THE LATE MORNING HOURS. THE RISK OF
SEVERE WEATHER IS LITTLE TO NONE DUE TO THE DECREASE IN INSTABILITY
ACROSS THE AREA. THE MAIN IMPACTS OVERNIGHT WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM
WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND BRIEF GUSTY WINDS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THEN CONTINUE FROM MORNING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY DUE TO POOR LAPSE RATES, AND
ONLY MODEST INSTABILITY DUE TO AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER, ALONG
WITH WEAK SHEAR. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE THOUGH AS PW
VALUES REMAIN ELEVATED AT 1.6 TO 1.8 INCHES. ANY AREA THAT SEES
REPEATED ROUNDS OF HEAVY SHOWERS COULD SEE SOME MINOR FLOODING
ISSUE.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS BACK NORTH ON FRIDAY AND PROVIDES FOCUS FOR
MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE DAY. SHEAR WILL BE A LITTLE
BETTER ACROSS THE AREA, AND IF WE CAN GET SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS,
THEN INSTABILITY WILL BE AS WELL. SPC ONLY HAS US OUTLOOKED IN
GENERAL THUNDER AS OF NOW BUT IF THE INGREDIENTS COME TOGETHER WE
COULD SEE A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS, BUT CHANCES ARE LOW AS OF
NOW.
SHOWERS AND STORM CHANCES REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A DEEP SW FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SEVERAL DISTURBANCES TO
MOVE ACROSS OUR REGION WITHIN THIS SW FLOW PATTERN. NO NOTABLE SIGNS
OF ANY SEVERE THREAT AT THE MOMENT BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR AS WE APPROACH THE WEEKEND TIMEFRAME. AS WE HAVE BEEN
ADVERTISING, QPF THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS WILL VARY WIDELY
ACROSS OUR AREA, DEPENDING ON WHICH AREAS SEE REPEATED SHOWERS AND
STORMS OVER NUMEROUS DAYS. GENERALLY SPEAKING, 1-3" OF RAIN IS
FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 749 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2026
MORNING RAIN OVERSPREADING THE VALLEY FROM THE SOUTH LIKELY TO
CONTINUE TO AROUND NOON BEFORE WEAKENING OR DISSIPATING. MVFR TO
AT TIMES IFR CONDITIONS DURING HEAVIER BOUTS OF RAIN WITHIN THE
OVERALL STRATIFORM COVERAGE. THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING
ANOTHER BOUT OF SCATTERED TS WITH ASSOCIATED VIS REDUCTIONS
LIKELY, THOUGH NOT CONFIDENT IN DIRECT TERMINAL IMPACTS.
CONFIDENCE DECREASES THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN
ANY RAIN OVERNIGHT. MVFR CIGS SHOULD BE DEVELOPING BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD AT KCHA OR JUST WEST OF THE TERMINAL.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 80 65 81 66 / 90 80 90 100
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 79 65 82 65 / 100 60 90 100
OAK RIDGE, TN 78 63 80 63 / 100 70 100 100
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 78 61 79 61 / 90 50 90 90
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...WELLINGTON
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