859
FXUS64 KMRX 161855
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
155 PM EST MON FEB 16 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 129 PM EST MON FEB 16 2026
- MILD TODAY, TURNING TO OUTRIGHT WARM WEATHER DURING THE WEEK.
- CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL MODERATE RAINFALL RETURN WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND ONWARDS INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 129 PM EST MON FEB 16 2026
CLEAR SKIES AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN WILL PRESENT
PRIME RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS TONIGHT. THE QUESTION IS, WILL IT BE
ENOUGH FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT. THERE COULD BE SOME LOCALLY DENSE FOG
THAT DEVELOPS TONIGHT. AND IT WOULD LIKELY FAVOR THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN VALLEY LOCALES, THOUGH IT'S NOT OUT OF THE POSSIBILITY
ELSEWHERE. CONFIDENCE IN IT OCCURRING IS NOT VERY HIGH THOUGH, DUE
TO MIXED SIGNALS IN GUIDANCE, SO I DECIDED TO LEAVE IT OUT OF THE
FORECAST FOR THE MOMENT.
LOOKING AHEAD, A STRONG SUBTROPICAL JET WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY, EXTENDING INTO THE CENTRAL
CONUS THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK. DOWNSTREAM WE'LL SEE PERSISTENT,
STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY H85 FLOW RESULTING IN WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES, WITH HIGHS REACHING THE LOW TO MID 60S IN THE LOW
ELEVATIONS TOMORROW THEN CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 60S TO POSSIBLY
LOW 70S BY LATER THIS WEEK. THERE IS A SHORTWAVE THAT WILL EJECT
FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TUE NIGHT INTO
WED, WHICH WOULD DRAG A FRONT INTO OUR REGION BY THURSDAY,
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SYSTEM ON FRIDAY. DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE IS
MIXED ON OUR RAIN CHANCES DURING THIS TIME, WITH SOME FAVORING MORE
NORTHERN/DRIER TRACKS, AND OTHERS A MORE SOUTHERN/WETTER TRACK. THE
PATTERN WOULD SUGGEST WE'LL HAVE SEVERAL CHANCES FOR RAINFALL
BETWEEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, GIVEN
THE PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY H85 FLOW AND RESULTING ABOVE NORMAL
PWATS IN CONJUNCTION WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARIES NEARBY OR MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION. THIS WOULD BE MUCH NEEDED GIVEN THE ONGOING
DROUGHT CONDITIONS.
LASTLY, IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE A COUPLE PERIODS OF DECENT
H85 FLOW THIS WEEK (WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY). MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS
MAY SEE A FEW PERIODS OF STRONGER WINDS, THOUGH IT'S FAIRLY
MARGINAL GIVEN THE LACK OF STRONG CROSS-MOUNTAIN PRESSURE GRADIENT
AND STRICT SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION. ADDITIONALLY, LATE NEXT
WEEKEND THERE REMAIN SIGNS FROM BOTH DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE OF A POTENTIALLY STRONG COLD FRONT PASSAGE. THERE WOULD
BE SOME POTENTIAL OF UPSLOPE MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOULD THE DEPICTIONS
IN THE GUIDANCE COME TO FRUITION. WE'LL MONITOR FOR NOW.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1229 PM EST MON FEB 16 2026
I HAVE VFR CONDITIONS IN AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE 18Z PERIOD,
BUT THAT COMES WITH A CAVEAT. AND THAT IS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY
OF SUBSTANTIAL FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY
CLEAR, AND THAT WOULD PROMOTE GOOD RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS. THIS
WOULD BE MOST LIKELY FOR KTRI AND PERHAPS KTYS. BUT GUIDANCE IS
VERY MIXED ON THE DEVELOPMENT SO I HELD OFF ON PUTTING IT IN THE
TAFS FOR THE TIME BEING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 43 69 55 69 / 0 0 0 0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 39 67 53 65 / 0 0 0 10
OAK RIDGE, TN 39 64 53 64 / 0 0 0 10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 36 64 43 62 / 0 0 0 10
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CD
AVIATION...CD
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