624
FXUS64 KMRX 202025
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
325 PM EST MON JAN 20 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 120 PM EST MON JAN 20 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
1. VERY COLD TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.
2. CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IN SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION:
IN THE UPPER LEVELS, A DEEP TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
U.S. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT PLAINS
EXTENDS OVER THE EASTERN U.S. DRY THIS FORECAST PERIOD, THE ONLY
EXCEPTION IS A CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS TOMORROW AFTERNOON IN
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE REGION. LITTLE TO
NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED WITH MOISTURE VERY LIMITED.
VERY COLD TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS AND TEENS. LUCKILY, WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND NOT ADD MUCH
WIND CHILL FACTOR. WE WILL STAY ABOVE COLD WEATHER ADVISORY
CRITERIA AND THUS ONE IS NOT EXPECTED TONIGHT (WE DID JUST ISSUE
ONE FOR TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING). TOMORROW, WILL BE COLD
WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S IN THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. LUCKILY WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT BUT THERE WILL BE LESS SUNSHINE TOMORROW AS CLOUDS MOVE
IN AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 120 PM EST MON JAN 20 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
1. ONE MORE NIGHT OF SINGLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES
2. THURSDAY WILL SEE A SLIGHT WARMING TREND WITH TEMPS NEARING
SEASONAL NORMALS THIS WEEKEND.
3. ANOTHER SYSTEM MIGHT MOVE THROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND, PRIMARILY
LOOKING LIKE A RAIN EVENT AT THIS TIME.
DISCUSSION:
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL SEE ONE MORE NIGHT OF THE
SINGLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES WITH THE CLEARER SKIES BEHIND THE
DEPARTING SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST U.S. WITH THE
SUNNIER SKIES, WEAK RIDGING BUILDING IN, AND WINDS TRYING TO TURN
MORE SOUTHERLY WE'LL SEE A MORE PRONOUNCED WARMING DURING THE
DAYTIME ON WEDNESDAY. PLACES ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-40 COULD SEE A
BRIEF WINDOW OF TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING, BUT IT WON'T LAST LONG
IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. WE'LL DROP BACK DOWN INTO THE TEENS OR SINGLE
DIGITS FOR MOST OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THEN FINALLY ON
THURSDAY WE'LL LIKELY SEE TEMPS RISE ABOVE FREEZING EVERY OUTSIDE OF
THE RIDGETOPS AND AND MOUNTAINS OF NORTHEAST TN AND SOUTHWEST VA.
QUIET WEATHER AND THE SLOW WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE TO CHUG ALONG
INTO THE WEEKEND WHEN OUR NEXT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION. ANOTHER TROUGH/SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
OHIO AND TENNESEE VALLEYS. IT LOOKS TO ALSO BRING THROUGH SOME
FRONTAL BOUNDARIES AS WELL, BUT CERTAINTY IS STILL LOW ON WHEN THE
MAIN FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND WHERE ANY WARM FRONTS AHEAD OF IT MAY
BE LOCATED. DEPENDING ON THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE WARM SECTOR
WE COULD SEE SOME WINDOWS OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION OR SNOW OVERNIGHT
SUNDAY AND/OR MONDAY NIGHT. RIGHT NOW OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE HOVERING
THE UPPER 20'S TO UPPER 30'S AREA WIDE OVERNIGHT. DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES ARE LOOKING TO CLIMB INTO THE 40'S OVER THE WEEKEND AS
WELL. SO ALL OF THIS DEPENDS ON THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM FOR HOW
MUCH POTENTIAL WINTER WEATHER WE COULD SEE. WILL BE THE NEXT SYSTEM
TO KEEP AN EYE ON, BUT PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE IS POINTING TO A
PREDOMINANTLY RAIN EVENT FOR ALL BUT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS..
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1212 PM EST MON JAN 20 2025
CLOUDS WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION TONIGHT BUT THERE WILL BE NO
PRECIP. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS TAF CYCLE. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT AND NORTHERLY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 18 31 13 37 / 10 10 0 0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 13 28 8 34 / 0 10 0 0
OAK RIDGE, TN 14 28 9 32 / 0 10 0 0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 11 24 5 31 / 0 10 0 0
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SHORT TERM...MCD
AVIATION...MCD
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page