553
FXUS64 KMRX 221716
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
116 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 109 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2026
- MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS WITH SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH SATURDAY. THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH STORMS BOTH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WILL BE STRONG WIND GUSTS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
-GUSTY WINDS IN THE SOME OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND FOOTHILLS
FRIDAY AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY NIGHT.
- A WET WEATHER PATTERN PERSISTS THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 129 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2026
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING GULF MOISTURE
INTO OUR AREA AS WE MOVE INTO THE WEEKEND. THE WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY JUST TO OUR NORTH AND WEST WILL VACILLATE BUT WILL BE SLOW
TO MAKE MUCH PROGRESS THROUGH SATURDAY. IN ADDITION, WEAK SHORT WAVE
IMPULSES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AND AGAIN SATURDAY. GIVEN
THE ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE, WE WILL SEE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE ENOUGH
FOR SHEAR TO BE A CONCERN BOTH DAYS BUT ESPECIALLY FRIDAY. THE
SEVERE THREAT WILL BE CONTINGENT ON IF ENOUGH CONVECTIVE ENERGY IS
ABLE TO DEVELOP, AND THE TIMING AND COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION DURING
THE DAY COULD INHIBIT DIURNAL HEATING ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THESE
DETAILS IS STILL LACKING. FOR NOW, HREF ENSEMBLE MEAN SBCAPE VALUES
EXCEED 1000 J/KG OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHWESTERN TWO THIRDS OF OUR
AREA FRIDAY, AND THE MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING
WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT FOR FRIDAY REMAINS. A FEW STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS MAY OCCUR SATURDAY AS WELL WITH STRONG
WINDS AGAIN THE PRIMARY THREAT. IN ADDITION, HEAVY RAINFALL MAY
CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING ESPECIALLY IF REPEATED HEAVY DOWNPOURS
OCCUR OVER ANY GIVEN LOCATION.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE NC/TN BORDER FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE RIDGING NOSES DOWN EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS
AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS BY TO OUR WEST. MODELS GENERALLY
SHOW SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS INCREASING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH
850MB WINDS REACHING THE 25 TO 40 KT RANGE FOR A BRIEF TIME TONIGHT.
MOUNTAIN WAVE ENHANCEMENT OF THE WINDS WILL LIKELY BRING GUSTY WINDS
TO THE USUAL HIGHER ELEVATION AND FOOTHILL LOCATIONS OF THE E TN
MOUNTAIN. IT STILL LOOKS MARGINAL FOR A WIND ADVISORY SO NONE WILL
BE ISSUED AS YET, BUT IT WILL BEAR WATCHING ESPECIALLY FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT.
FOR SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, A WET PATTERN WILL CONTINUE AS THE DEEP
S TO SW FLOW REMAINS OVER THE REGION. TIMING OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL DEPEND ON DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW AND SURFACE BOUNDARIES IN
THE AREA, WHICH ARE DIFFICULT TO RESOLVE AT THIS TIME. HIGH POPS
WITH LOW TO MODERATE CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR TO BE WARRANTED
IN THIS PATTERN.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 109 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2026
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WITH THE MOST SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS LIKELY
TO BE AT CHA AND TYS WHERE LOW MVFR IS EXPECTED. TRI'S REDUCTIONS
WILL BE LATER INTO THE EVENING AND POTENTIALLY NOT AS SIGNIFICANT
AS THE OTHER TWO SITES. OVERNIGHT, RAIN COVERAGE WILL DECREASE
WITH MVFR LIKELY TO LINGER AT CHA. ANOTHER IMPACT WILL BE LLWS DUE
TO WINDS AROUND 2,000 FEET AGL REACHING OR EXCEEDING 30 KTS. THIS
IS MOST NOTED AT CHA AND TYS, SO LLWS WAS INTRODUCED. THIS WILL
DECREASE AFTER SUNRISE WITH ANOTHER INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 78 65 82 65 / 100 70 90 60
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 79 65 81 64 / 90 90 100 50
OAK RIDGE, TN 77 63 80 62 / 100 80 100 60
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 77 61 80 61 / 90 80 100 60
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...BW
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