353  
FXUS64 KMRX 240643  
AFDMRX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN  
243 AM EDT MON JUN 24 2024  
   
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
 
 
   
SHORT TERM
 
 
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 242 AM EDT MON JUN 24 2024  
 
KEY MESSAGES:  
 
1. SOME SHOWERS LINGER, MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS, THROUGH SHORTLY  
AFTER DAYBREAK. OTHERWISE, DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.  
 
2. COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY, WITH A NICE  
COOLDOWN TONIGHT AS LOWS DROP INTO THE 60S.  
 
DISCUSSION:  
 
A COUPLE OF BATCHES OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MAKE THEIR WAY THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA  
EARLY THIS MORNING, ONE MOVING THROUGH OUR NC COUNTIES AND ANOTHER  
NORTH OF THE MORRISTOWN AREA IN TN AND VA. EXPECT ALL OF THIS TO  
CLEAR TO THE EAST BY DAYBREAK OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER AS THE SHORTWAVE  
TROUGH DRIVING ALL OF THIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN BY  
15Z. AFTERWARDS, EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE CWA THROUGHOUT THE  
REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS UPPER RIDGING ATTEMPTS TO  
BUILD IN FROM THE WEST.  
 
THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH MENTIONED ABOVE, IS NOT  
EXACTLY RACING SOUTHEAST. IT LOOKS TO BE SITUATED FROM ROUGHLY WISE  
VIRGINIA  
SOUTHWEST THROUGH CROSSVILLE OR THEREABOUTS EARLY THIS MORNING AND  
SHOULD PUSH THROUGH THE ENTIRE CWA BY MID MORNING OR SO. EXPECT  
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AS A RESULT, AND A NOTABLE DECREASE IN  
THE HUMIDITY LEVELS TODAY AS A RESULT. THE SOUTHERN TN VALLEY SHOULD  
STILL BE QUITE WARM THOUGH, WITH LOW TO MID 90S FORECAST FOR THE  
CHATTANOOGA AREA.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM
 
 
(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)  
ISSUED AT 242 AM EDT MON JUN 24 2024  
 
KEY MESSAGES:  
 
1. RAIN CHANCES ARRIVE ON WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A  
WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE. ANOTHER FRONT MAY BRING SHOWERS AND STORMS  
BY THE WEEKEND.  
 
2. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH  
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THURSDAY BEFORE HEATING RIGHT  
BACK UP AGAIN.  
 
DISCUSSION:  
 
SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL OCCUR ON TUESDAY WITH A STRONGER SHORTWAVE  
DIGGING INTO MISSOURI/OKLAHOMA/ARKANSAS. THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND  
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY EASTWARD TUESDAY  
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL  
BE THE BEST CHANCE TO GET SOME WETTING RAIN ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF  
OUR FORECAST AREA. PW VALUES OF 1.25" TO 1.40" WILL BE COMMON AND  
THIS FALLS IN LINE WITH CLIMATOLOGY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THUS,  
HEAVY RAINFALL IS NOT ANTICIPATED AND QPF FORECASTS SUGGEST ANYWHERE  
FROM 0.25"-0.75" POSSIBLE BY THURSDAY MORNING.  
 
COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ON THURSDAY POST FRONT AND RAIN.  
UNFORTUNATELY SHORT-LIVED BECAUSE THE HEAT TURNS UP AGAIN BY FRIDAY  
INTO THE WEEKEND. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL  
POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES FOR THE  
WEEKEND APPEAR AGAIN ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. A WEAKNESS IN THE  
RIDGE AND WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE AREA AGAIN. WE COULD  
DEFINITELY USE THE RAINFALL!  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
(06Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 138 AM EDT MON JUN 24 2024  
 
CONVECTION IS MOSTLY CLEAR OF THE AREA AS OF 0530Z, WITH A FEW  
ISOLD SHRA/TSRA YET TO MOVE EAST THROUGH AREAS NORTH OF KTYS.  
THEY'RE SPARSE ENOUGH THAT EXCLUDING THEM FROM THE KTRI TAF SEEMS  
THE CORRECT DECISION. SOME GUIDANCE DEVELOPS SOME MVFR FLIGHT  
CATEGORIES THROUGH DAYBREAK OR SO AT KTRI AND KTYS. SEEMS MORE  
PLAUSIBLE AT KTYS WHERE HEAVIER RAINS WERE SEEN, BUT NOT CONFIDENT  
ENOUGH IN IT OCCURRING AT EITHER SITE TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME.  
KTYS DOES HAVE FEW003 ON THE LATEST OB SO WILL WATCH IT CLOSELY  
AND AMEND IF NECESSARY. OTHERWISE, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM  
THE NORTHWEST WILL PRODUCE SOME GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS AT KCHA THIS  
AFTERNOON.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 94 68 96 73 / 0 0 0 0  
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 89 64 92 69 / 0 0 0 0  
OAK RIDGE, TN 89 64 93 69 / 0 0 0 10  
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 85 59 89 64 / 0 0 0 0  
 

 
   
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NC...NONE.  
TN...NONE.  
VA...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...CD  
LONG TERM....AC  
AVIATION...CD  
 
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