772
FXUS64 KMRX 260009 AAA
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
709 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 705 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2025
- WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS, AND WILL BE EXTENDED UNTIL 10 PM EST.
- LOW PROBABILITIES FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, MAINLY IN THE SOUTHERN TN VALLEY.
- DRIER AND COLDER FOR THANKSGIVING THROUGH SATURDAY.
- CHANCE OF RAIN RETURNS ON SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1244 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2025
SHOWERS THIS MORNING HAVE BEEN ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE MIDLEVEL
TROUGH AND MID/UPPER LEVEL QG FORCING IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
OF A JET. CONVECTION HAS BEEN ELEVATED AND VERY WEAK, WITH NO
LIGHTNING OBSERVED FOR SEVERAL HOURS. SOME GUSTY WINDS HAVE BEEN
OBSERVED WITH THE DEEPER CONVECTION, WITH GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH. ALOFT,
A STRONG LLJ PERSISTS, AS WIND GUSTS AT COVE MOUNTAIN HAVE REACHED
50-55 MPH, BUT HAVE BEEN TRENDING DOWN IN RECENT OBS. OTHER MOUNTAIN
OBS ARE SHOWING GUSTS IN THE 25-35 MPH RANGE. SO THE WIND ADVISORY
WILL BE ALLOWED TO END AT 4 PM EST.
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS MS/AL OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS, AND TRACK TOWARD THE NE, ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE PRE-
FRONTAL CONVERGENCE ZONE. THE QUESTION FOR OUR AREA IS WHETHER THE
CONVECTION CAN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY THROUGH AN AIR MASS THAT HAS
BEEN THOROUGHLY WORKED OVER THIS MORNING. MODELS DO SHOW SOME
SURFACE-BASED CAPE DEVELOPING AROUND 3-5 PM IN OUR SOUTHERN TN
VALLEY COUNTIES, WITH WEAK ELEVATED CAPE TO THE NORTH. THE SEVERE
THREAT CONTINUES TO LOOK LOW, PRIMARILY STRAIGHT-LINE WIND GUSTS,
AND MAINLY IN THE SOUTHERN TN VALLEY AND SOUTHERN PLATEAU COUNTIES,
WITH A LOW TORNADO POTENTIAL FOR THE GA BORDER COUNTIES WHERE THE
INSTABILITY MAY BE SURFACE BASED AND OVERLAPS WITH SOME LOW LEVEL
SHEAR. IT IS NOTABLE THAT THE NAM SHOWS 35-40 KT 0-1 KM SHEAR VALUES
AT THE SAME TIME AS 0-3 KM CAPE AROUND 100 J/KG. BUT I AM SKEPTICAL
THAT MUCH SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY CAN BE REALIZED GIVEN THE
MORNING RAINFALL AND CLOUD COVER - THE NAM IS OFTEN TOO AGGRESSIVE
IN BRINGING WARM AIR NORTH AND ERODING CLOUDS. OVERALL, NOT MUCH HAS
CHANGED FROM THE THINKING OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST REGARDING THE
SEVERE THREAT.
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MAY LINGER THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AS
NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS AND TRIES TO SQUEEZE OUT ANY LINGERING
MOISTURE, BUT MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WED AFTERNOON
THROUGH SATURDAY. THE MAIN IMPACTS WILL BE ANOMALOUSLY LOW H5
HEIGHTS BRINGING SEASONALLY COOL CONDITIONS AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL FOR THANKSGIVING DAY AND FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY
REBOUND THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE IN RAIN CHANCES
MAKING A RETURN BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 705 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2025
SHRA HAVE CLEARED KCHA TO THE EAST ALREADY, AND SHOULD CLEAR THE
OTHER TWO SITES BY 02-04Z. CURRENTLY HAVE A MIX OF MVFR/VFR CIGS
IN PLACE ACROSS THE TN VALLEY. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A MIXED
BACK OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES FURTHER TO THE WEST AND MOST GUIDANCE
HOLDS THE MVFR CONDITIONS IN ACROSS THE VALLEY. GIVEN THE LACK OF
A SWEEPING AIR MASS CHANGE, AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING
SATURATED LOW LEVELS HAVING ON OVERNIGHT, WILL GO WITH A
PERSISTENCE FORECAST AND LEAVE ALL TERMINALS IN MVFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH MID-MORNING. FOR TOMORROW, GOOD MIXING AND STRONG SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENTS SHOULD PRODUCE GUSTS IN THE 18-25KT RANGE AT
ALL SITES, WITH THE STRONGER GUSTS BEING AT KTYS AND KTRI.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 69 53 58 34 / 100 50 0 0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 66 53 57 31 / 100 80 10 0
OAK RIDGE, TN 64 51 56 31 / 100 70 10 0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 62 53 57 29 / 90 80 20 0
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DGS
AVIATION...CD
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