147
FXUS64 KMRX 020610
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
110 AM EST FRI JAN 2 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1258 AM EST FRI JAN 2 2026
- A WEAK SYSTEM PASSING SOUTH OF OUR AREA WILL BRING RAIN FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN LATE
SATURDAY THROUGH AT LEAST THE EARLY PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK.
- ANOTHER WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED INTO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1258 AM EST FRI JAN 2 2026
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE INTO THE MORNING AS
A TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST DUE TO A WEAK IMPULSE PROPAGATING ACROSS
THE CENTRAL CONUS. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL GLIDE
EASTWARDS JUST TO OUR SOUTH THIS EVENING INTO THE FIRST HALF OF
SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING RAIN CHANCES AREA-WIDE,
HOWEVER, THE GREATEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN ONE-QUARTER TO ONE-
HALF INCH ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY LESS THAN ONE-QUARTER INCH
FOR NORTHEAST TENNESSEE INTO SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA.
RAIN CHANCES GRADUALLY DIMINISH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING AS THE SYSTEM QUICKLY DEPARTS NORTH AND EAST. SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CAP OFF THE WEEKEND BEFORE
INCREASING UPPER-LEVEL HEIGHTS PROMOTE A WARMING TREND INTO THE NEW
WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES BECOME WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY TUESDAY WHEN
HIGH TEMPS INCREASE INTO THE 60S FOR A MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST
AREA, CONTINUING INTO THE MID WEEK.
LOW CHANCES (25% OR LESS) OF A VERY LIGHT RAIN EXISTS WITH A
SHORTWAVE TRANSLATING THROUGH MEAN FLOW TO OUR NORTH WEDNESDAY. AN
ADDITIONAL TROUGH AND POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW IS
POSSIBLE FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AND NBM HANGS ONTO SOME
20-40% POPS FOR THIS REASON. THE STRENGTH AND A POSITIONING OF AN
EXPECTED RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US WILL PLAY A CRITICAL ROLE
IN HOW THESE POP CHANCES EVOLVE OVER THE COMING FORECAST
PACKAGES. OVERALL, STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR
OUT.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1222 AM EST FRI JAN 2 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAYTIME FRIDAY. FRIDAY
EVENING, RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTHWEST, BRINGING MVFR CIGS AND POSSIBLY VIS TO CHA BEFORE
MIDNIGHT. TYS AND TRI MAY SEE MVFR CONDITIONS (OR WORSE) AFTER
MIDNIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 59 47 57 36 / 30 90 30 0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 57 44 54 35 / 20 80 50 0
OAK RIDGE, TN 55 43 55 32 / 10 70 40 0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 52 40 50 33 / 0 50 60 10
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KRS
AVIATION...MCD
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