319
FXUS64 KMRX 041736
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1236 PM EST TUE NOV 4 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1235 PM EST TUE NOV 4 2025
- DRY WEATHER WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.
- A SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS POSSIBLE.
- MUCH COLDER WEATHER EXPECTED BY EARLY NEXT WEEK BEHIND A COLD
FRONT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1235 PM EST TUE NOV 4 2025
WARM AND QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS WE SIT
UNDER BROAD RIDGING TO ZONAL FLOW THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE ATMOSPHERE.
WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE EXPECTED TEMPERATURES WILL REALLY WARM UP IN THE
AFTERNOONS WITH HIGHS CROSSING THE 70 DEGREE MARK WEDNESDAY.
A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CONUS WILL BRING A
TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT, BUT LIMITED
MOISTURE MEANS NO PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE EXPECTED FOR OUR AREA.
RIDGING BUILDS BACK IN THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES
AND QUASI-ZONAL FLOW IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE..
A MORE PROGRESSIVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY
LATE FRIDAY WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE GREAT
LAKES. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED.
A FEW ROUNDS OF SHORTWAVES WILL STRENGTHEN THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT EVEN THIS FAR OUT FROM THE
WEEKEND. THE LREF INDICATES ABOUT A 70+ PERCENT CHANCES OF
TEMPERATURES LESS THAN 32 DEGREES ACROSS THE VALLEY NEXT MONDAY
NIGHT, WHICH IS A FAIRLY STRONG SIGNAL THIS FAR OUT FOR A WIDESPREAD
FREEZE. WITH NORTHWEST OROGRAPHIC FLOW AND 850MB TEMPERATURES BELOW
0C, SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS ABOVE
4000 FT ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. A SIGNIFICANT RETURN OF COLD AIR
APPEARS LIKELY EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK BRINGING AN EARLY TASTE OF
WINTER.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM EST TUE NOV 4 2025
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY AND INTO TONIGHT. SOME GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING LIGHT VFR/MVFR FOG
DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT, BUT THE SIGNALS ARE WEAK ENOUGH TO NOT INCLUDE
MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 44 73 47 69 / 0 0 0 0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 43 70 45 66 / 0 0 0 0
OAK RIDGE, TN 43 68 44 64 / 0 0 0 0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 39 67 39 61 / 0 0 10 0
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...99
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