623
FXUS64 KMRX 091131
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
731 AM EDT MON MAR 9 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 727 AM EDT MON MAR 9 2026
- A WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH NEAR RECORD
HIGH TEMPERATURES AGAIN.
- CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND
THEN AGAIN BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO
SEVERE WEDNESDAY NIGHT, ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA.
- LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ON THURSDAY,
FOLLOWED BY COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS AREA-WIDE. THEN, ANOTHER
WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 135 AM EDT MON MAR 9 2026
CURRENTLY, A SHORTWAVE HAS PUSHED OFF TO OUR EAST WITH A STATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE AREA. RECENT LIGHT RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE
TO PRODUCE PATCHY DENSE FOG EARLY THIS MORNING. THROUGH THE DAY,
THIS SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT OFF TO THE EAST, PROVIDING MORE ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT AND DRIER CONDITIONS. BY THIS EVENING, A CLOSED LOW WILL MOVE
INTO NORTHERN MEXICO WITH ITS DOWNSTREAM UPPER JET APPROACHING FROM
THE SOUTHWEST OF OUR AREA. UPPER DIVERGENCE IN THE LEFT-EXIT REGION
WILL LEAD TO VERTICAL ASCENT WITH THE FRONT GETTING PULLED BACK
NORTHWARD. THIS WILL LEAD TO A RETURN OF RAIN CHANCES OVERNIGHT AND
INTO TUESDAY. THE FLOW REMAINS FAIRLY WEAK OVERALL, BUT MLCAPE OF
500 TO 1,000 J/KG WILL SUPPORT CONVECTION WITH EVEN SOME POTENTIAL
FOR STRONGER STORMS AS MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE INDICATED REACH
NEAR 7 C/KM. IN ADDITION TO THE SHOWERS AND STORMS, RECORD HEAT
COMES BACK INTO VIEW WITH DAILY RECORDS SHOWN BELOW:
DAILY RECORD HIGH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
DATE CHATTANOOGA KNOXVILLE TRI-CITIES OAK RIDGE
03-09 82(2009) 82(1925) 79(2016) 80(1974)
03-10 81(2009) 81(2016) 82(2016) 81(2016)
03-11 81(2006) 81(2006) 78(2006) 80(1990)
BY LATER ON TUESDAY, FOCUS WILL TURN TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST AS THE
SOUTHERN JET MERGES WITH THE NORTHERN JET AND A DEEPENING SURFACE
LOW PROGRESSES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION FOR WEDNESDAY. A STRONG
LLJ AND BROAD WARM SECTOR WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
EASTERN U.S. AHEAD OF ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. THIS WILL CONTINUE
TO SUPPORT A BROAD AREA OF POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER THAT HAS BEEN
OUTLINED IN RECENT DAYS. THE LATEST NAM SHOWS A LIKELY QLCS MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION FROM MIDNIGHT TO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH
SOME OTHERS SHOWING AN EARLIER TIMING. DURING THIS TIME, THE NAM
STRUGGLES TO SHOW INSTABILITY OF MORE THAN 250 J/KG BUT WITH STRONG
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR, INCLUDING IN THE LOWER LEVELS. 850MB WINDS ARE
SLIGHTLY WEAKER THAN SOME PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS SHOWED, MORE IN THE 40
TO 45 KT RANGE BUT STILL MORE THAN ENOUGH FOR A SEVERE RISK WITH
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY. AS THE PREVIOUS OUTLOOK SHOWED, WESTERN
PORTIONS OF OUR AREA HAVE THE GREATER CHANCE FOR SEVERE CONVECTION
DUE TO DECREASING INSTABILITY. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE WORTH
WATCHING IN THE COMING DAYS, ESPECIALLY WHEN HIGHER RESOLUTION MODEL
GUIDANCE IS AVAILABLE. BUT AT THIS TIME, THERE IS AT LEAST SOME
THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS OR AN ISOLATED SPIN-UP TORNADO.
THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AROUND OR BEFORE SUNRISE ON
THURSDAY, LEADING TO A RETURN OF MUCH COLDER AIR SUFFICIENT FOR A
CHANGEOVER TO LIGHT SNOW IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. MODELS CERTAINLY
DIFFER ON HOW LONG MOISTURE LINGERS INTO THE DAY, BUT THERE'S LIKELY
ENOUGH FOR LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS IN THE HIGHEST PLACES. OTHERWISE,
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE REGION DRY TO END THE WEEK. THERE IS
ANOTHER SYSTEM THAT WILL TRACK ALONG SOUTHERN CANADA FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND. BUT, THE RESULT FOR OUR AREA WILL BE A RETURN OF SOUTHERLY
FLOW AS DRY AIR REMAINS IN PLACE. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE BACK ABOVE
NORMAL BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 727 AM EDT MON MAR 9 2026
PATCHY DENSE FOG IS ONGOING THIS MORNING ACROSS THE VALLEY.
KCHA MAY YET STILL DIP INTO FOG GIVEN CURRENT SATELLITE DEPICTIONS
OF LOW CLOUDS IN THE AREA. FOG SHOULD BEGIN TO SCATTER AND CLEAR
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. A CLUSTER OF TS IS STILL EXPECTED
TO PASS SOUTH OF KCHA THIS EVENING, WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POTENTIALLY TS RE-DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF
EAST TN IN THE LAST 4 HOURS OF THE TAF TONIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 80 62 78 65 / 30 70 50 10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 75 60 77 64 / 10 60 50 30
OAK RIDGE, TN 75 60 76 64 / 10 60 50 30
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 71 51 75 58 / 0 20 40 20
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR CHEROKEE-
CLAY.
TN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT /9 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-EAST POLK-
GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-
KNOX-LOUDON-MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-MORGAN-NORTH SEVIER-
NORTHWEST BLOUNT-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST
GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-RHEA-ROANE-SCOTT TN-SEQUATCHIE-
SOUTHEAST CARTER-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-WASHINGTON TN-WEST
POLK.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION...WELLINGTON
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