710
FXUS64 KMRX 100630
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
230 AM EDT FRI APR 10 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 226 AM EDT FRI APR 10 2026
- A WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION COULD APPROACH THE 90-DEGREE
MARK NEXT WEEK.
- NO RAIN IS FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
LIMITED CHANCES LATER IN THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 226 AM EDT FRI APR 10 2026
CURRENTLY, WEAK QUASI-ZONAL FLOW IS IN PLACE ALOFT WITH THE UPPER
JET WELL TO OUR NORTH. A TROUGH/CLOSED LOW IS ALSO APPROACHING THE
PACIFIC COAST. HIGH PRESSURE STILL REMAINS IN PLACE BUT HAS SHIFTED
FURTHER TO THE EAST. WITH THIS SETUP, ANOTHER DRY DAY IS EXPECTED
TODAY WITH RH VALUES IN THE 20S AND RECENT HEIGHT RISES PUSHING
HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S. THANKFULLY, LOW-LEVEL FLOW/MSLP GRADIENT
REMAINS WEAK. BY SATURDAY, THE TROUGH/CLOSED LOW WILL BE MOVING INTO
THE WESTERN U.S. WITH ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TRACKING TO OUR
NORTH. THIS WILL PROVIDE DRY NORTHERLY FLOW WITH MORE SUBSTANTIAL
HEIGHT RISES AS RIDGING EXPANDS IN THE EAST. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
OVERALL, BUT HIGHS WILL START RISING FURTHER INTO THE 80S. BY
SUNDAY, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST WITH 500MB
HEIGHTS RISING TO NEAR MID-SUMMER NORMALS OF 5,850M. THIS WILL
INCREASE BROAD SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MAKE A CASE FOR HIGHS WELL INTO
THE 80S. CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE BREEZIER DUE TO BROAD SOUTHERLY
FLOW AND STRONGER MSLP GRADIENT.
AN INITIAL SYSTEM WILL TRACK ALONG THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES EARLY IN
THE WEEK WITH ANOTHER BY THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THESE SYSTEMS WILL SOMEWHAT APPROACH FROM
THE NORTHWEST, BUT MUCH OF THE MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL REMAIN WELL TO
OUR NORTH AND WEST. WHILE SOME RAIN CHANCES DO MOVE IN LATER IN THE
WEEK, TRENDS SUGGEST THIS WILL BE NOWHERE NEAR WHAT'S NEEDED TO HELP
THE EXPANDING DROUGHT. NEAR-RECORD HEAT IS LIKELY INTO NEXT WEEK
WITH THE VALUES LISTED BELOW:
DAILY RECORD HIGH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
DATE CHATTANOOGA KNOXVILLE TRI-CITIES OAK RIDGE
04-11 87(2001) 86(2001) 86(2001) 85(2001)
04-12 89(1887) 87(1930) 84(1945) 87(1948)
04-13 88(1887) 89(1887) 86(1981) 86(2017)
04-14 87(2010) 86(1887) 85(1938) 88(2017)
04-15 87(2006) 87(1936) 85(1945) 86(2024)
04-16 89(2002) 87(1896) 87(2002) 88(2002)
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 134 AM EDT FRI APR 10 2026
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS PREVAIL FOR THE TAF PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 80 53 85 54 / 0 0 0 0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 77 51 81 54 / 0 10 10 0
OAK RIDGE, TN 78 51 82 53 / 0 10 10 0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 75 47 78 50 / 0 10 10 0
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION...KRS
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