664
FXUS64 KMRX 172332
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
732 PM EDT SUN MAY 17 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 724 PM EDT SUN MAY 17 2026
- ISOLATED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING, ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHERN
AREAS. STRONG WINDS AND HAIL UP TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER ARE POSSIBLE,
BUT COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED.
- WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES RETURN WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
- HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RISE WELL INTO THE 80S TO AROUND 90
DEGREES FOR MANY TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY, FOLLOWED BY MODERATION
OF TEMPERATURES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 228 PM EDT SUN MAY 17 2026
CURRENTLY THIS AFTERNOON, BROAD RIDGING IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
EASTERN U.S. AHEAD OF DEEPENING TROUGHING OVER THE ROCKIES. THE
BERMUDA HIGH CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN IN THE ATLANTIC, LEADING TO
INCREASED SOUTHERLY FLOW AND TEMPERATURES RISING NEAR THE 90-DEGREE
MARK. WITH MOISTURE ADVECTION COMPARED TO YESTERDAY, THERE IS A LOW-
END CHANCE FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION, ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH. WHILE
THERE'S VIRTUALLY 0 SHEAR, MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE AT OR ABOVE 7
C/KM WITH MLCAPE RISING ABOVE 1,000 J/KG. THE MAIN QUESTION IS ABOUT
INITIATION, WHICH COULD END UP BEING VERY MINIMAL PER SOME OF THE
CAMS. ANY STORMS WOULD POSE A MARGINAL WIND AND HAIL THREAT IN THIS
ENVIRONMENT. ON MONDAY, TROUGHING TO THE NORTHWEST WILL LIFT AS IT
EJECTS INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS WITH A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW
TRACKING TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES. LOCALLY, 500MB HEIGHTS WILL
SURPASS 5,880M, WHICH IS AT OR ABOVE NORMALS FOR JULY. SIMILARLY HOT
TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED WITH SLIGHTLY LESS MOISTURE LEADING TO
EVEN LOWER CHANCES FOR DIURNAL STORMS.
BY TUESDAY, THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE GREAT LAKES LOW WILL
BEGIN TO ADVANCE TOWARDS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY WITH THE PATTERN
LOCALLY REMAINING SIMILARLY HOT AND DRY. BY WEDNESDAY, HOWEVER, THE
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY WITH BETTER MOISTURE
ADVECTION OUT AHEAD. THIS WILL LEAD TO A WIDESPREAD INCREASE IN
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, THE FRONT WILL
MOVE TOWARDS THE REGION BEFORE GETTING PULLED BACK NORTHWARD INTO
THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES ELEVATED FOR THE REST OF
THE PERIOD. AT THIS TIME, THERE IS STILL NO STRONG INDICATION OF AN
ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED OR SEVERE STORMS, WHICH IS ALSO
SHOWN IN THE CIPS ANALOGS. ISOLATED STRONGER STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
AS IN MOST SUMMER CONVECTION DAYS. OVERALL COVERAGE IS UNCERTAIN
THIS FAR OUT, BUT HOPEFULLY MANY PLACES SEE RAINFALL AS KNOXVILLE
AND CHATTANOOGA CONTINUE TO BE AT THE LOWEST YEAR-TO-DATE RAINFALL
SINCE 2007.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 724 PM EDT SUN MAY 17 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL PRODUCE SOME
LOW END GUSTS TOMORROW AFTERNOON MAINLY AT TYS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 66 88 66 89 / 10 20 0 10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 66 90 66 90 / 10 10 0 0
OAK RIDGE, TN 64 89 64 88 / 10 10 0 0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 61 90 61 88 / 10 20 0 0
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION...MCD
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