102
FXUS64 KMRX 121140
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
640 AM EST THU FEB 12 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 635 AM EST THU FEB 12 2026
- DRY THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.
- WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED TO END THE WEEKEND WITH OVER 1" OF
RAIN POSSIBLE FOR MANY.
- DRY AND WARMER TO START NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1247 AM EST THU FEB 12 2026
A NW FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TODAY, WITH 850 MB COLD ADVECTION
CONTINUING. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S, BUT A WARMUP
WILL BE ON TAP FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AS ADVECTION TURNS NEUTRAL
TO POSITIVE AHEAD OF A BUILDING RIDGE. BY SATURDAY, HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. ONE CHANGE OF NOTE TO THE NBM WILL BE TO
LOWER DAYTIME DEWPOINTS, WHICH WERE MUCH TOO HIGH YESTERDAY AS THE
MODEL DOES NOT ADEQUATELY ACCOUNT FOR BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING AND
DRYING.
THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN ARRIVES BY LATE ON SATURDAY AS THE RIDGE
EXITS AND A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN CONUS. MODELS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING WITH THE DETAILS OF THIS
SYSTEM, BOTH WITH HOW STRONG THE WAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
WILL BE AND EXACTLY HOW FAR SOUTH IT WILL TRACK. STRONG MOUNTAIN
WINDS CANNOT BE RULED OUT, BUT THE SOUTHERN TRACK OF THE LOW IS NOT
CONDUCIVE TO AN IMPACTFUL MOUNTAIN WAVE WIND EVENT. CONFIDENCE IS
HIGHER THAT WE WILL SEE RAIN MOVING IN SOMETIME LATE SATURDAY OR
SATURDAY EVENING, CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY. THERMAL PROFILES
SUGGEST ALL THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS RAIN, WITH SOME WEAK
INSTABILITY IN SOUTHERN SECTIONS SUGGESTING A LOW CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY. LATEST NBM PROBABILITY DATA SHOWS AROUND
A 30% TO 60% CHANCE ACROSS OUR AREA OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING 1 INCH
BY THE TIME THE RAIN ENDS SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITIES SOUTH AND WEST.
A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CROSS THE GULF AND SOUTHEAST
NEXT WEEK, PROVIDING DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 635 AM EST THU FEB 12 2026
VFR AND DRY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. SKC THIS MORNING AT SOME SITES MAY SEE MID TO HIGH CLOUDS
LATER IN THE DAY. NLY TO NELY LIGHT WINDS. CALM CONDITIONS FOR
TONIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 56 36 60 37 / 0 0 0 0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 51 30 56 32 / 0 0 0 0
OAK RIDGE, TN 52 31 56 32 / 0 0 0 0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 46 24 50 27 / 0 0 0 0
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DGS
AVIATION...KS
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