112
FXUS64 KMRX 061817
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
117 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1245 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2026
- RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY BE EXCEEDED TODAY AND SATURDAY AND
WILL BE APPROACHED OR EXCEEDED AGAIN EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.
- A SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND. A FEW STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH DAMAGING WINDS AS THE PRIMARY
THREAT.
- SHOWERS AND STORMS CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN BY MID WEEK WITH
SEVERE CHANCES CURRENTLY LOOKING LOW.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1245 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2026
WE CONTINUE TO BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY AROUND
TODAY FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS, BUT MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE
DRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY. AFTER RECORDS WERE BROKEN YESTERDAY,
RECORD HIGHS ARE AGAIN LIKELY EXCEEDED TODAY. THE VERY WARM THEME
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD INTO MID WEEK,
WITH RECORD HIGHS LOOKING TO BE UNDER THREAT AGAIN SATURDAY AND
LIKELY TO BE APPROACHED OR EXCEEDED AGAIN DURING THE MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY PERIOD, ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. RECORD
HIGHS FOR THE WARMER DAYS ARE LISTED BELOW:
DAILY RECORD HIGH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
DATE CHATTANOOGA KNOXVILLE TRI-CITIES OAK RIDGE
03-06 82(1956) 79(2022) 79(2022) 81(1956)
03-07 82(2000) 80(1983) 79(1956) 80(1956)
03-09 82(2009) 82(1925) 79(2016) 80(1974)
03-10 81(2009) 81(2016) 82(2016) 81(2016)
03-11 81(2006) 81(2006) 78(2006) 80(1990)
A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL ARRIVE LATER SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS A SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WHICH FLATTENS THE UPPER RIDGE, AND A WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES
SOUTHEAST INTO OUR AREA. GUIDANCE OVERALL CONTINUES TO SUGGEST
MLCAPE VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE REACHING THE 500 TO 1000 J/KG RANGE
AREA WIDE AND WITH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR REACHING 25 TO 35 KTS AHEAD OF
THE CONVECTION THAT MOVES IN LATE SATURDAY OR EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT,
ALTHOUGH A NIGHTTIME ARRIVAL WOULD ALLOW CAPE VALUES TO TREND LOWER
BEFORE ONSET. CAMS GENERALLY TEND TO SUPPORT THE IDEA OF A WEAKENING
LINE MOVING IN SOMETIME LATE SATURDAY OR EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT WELL
OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT FOLLOWED BY ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND PERHAPS
THUNDERSTORMS LATER IN THE NIGHT ALBEIT WITH LESS CONVECTIVE ENERGY
TO WORK WITH, AND RIGHT NOW THE THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS STILL LOOKS
MARGINAL WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT AS THE INITIAL LINE
MOVES IN. HOWEVER, THIS STILL HAS TIME TO CHANGE BASED ON TIMING AND
HOW MUCH INSTABILTY WILL ACTUALLY BE AVAILABLE.
THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STILL BE MAKING SLOW PROGRESS
SOUTHEASTWARD OVER OUR AREA SUNDAY, KEEPING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS ELEVATED. THIS WILL ALSO MODERATE TEMPERATURES BACK BELOW
RECORD VALUES FOR SUNDAY. SOME DRYING MAY BE WORKING IN AT LEAST TO
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES BY THE END OF THE DAY AS THE FRONT EDGES TO
OUR SOUTHEAST.
MONDAY LOOKS DRIER ESPECIALLY NORTH, ALTHOUGH PROXIMITY TO THE
STALLED FRONT WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS A BIT HIGHER
SOUTH. BY TUESDAY, A CLOSED LOW WILL MOVE OUT OF MEXICO INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND WILL EVENTUALLY TRACK ACROSS THE GULF STATES
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE STATIONARY FRONT TO OUR SOUTHEAST WILL
MOVE BACK NORTH TUESDAY, THEN A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR
AREA SOMETIME AROUND THE WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. THE
BETTER UPPER SUPPORT LOOKS TO STAY OFF TO OUR NORTH AND WEST, BUT
THE FORCING WITH THE FRONT MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR ANOTHER CHANCE OF
STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS MID-WEEK. THIS WILL BE WORTH
KEEPING AN EYE ON, BUT UNCERTAINTY IS STILL HIGH ON THE DETAILS WITH
THIS SYSTEM THAT FAR OUT.
FRIDAY CURRENTLY LOOKS DRIER AND MILD BEHIND THE FRONT.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1125 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2026
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM WILL BE AROUND EARLY
IN THE PERIOD, BUT PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE AT ANY SITE LOOKS TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE ANYTHING BUT A VCSH FOR NOW. MVFR CIGS LOOK LIKELY
AT CHA LATE IN THE PERIOD, BUT OTHERWISE WILL GO WITH A VFR
FORECAST FOR ALL SITES FOR THE PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 63 81 61 74 / 30 60 80 70
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 62 81 60 71 / 10 60 90 70
OAK RIDGE, TN 62 79 60 70 / 10 60 80 60
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 56 79 59 66 / 10 50 90 70
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...99
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