051
FXUS64 KMRX 210627
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
127 AM EST SAT FEB 21 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 123 AM EST SAT FEB 21 2026
- RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
TN AND SOUTHWEST NC. AFTERNOON WILL BE MOSTLY DRY, WITH LIGHT
RAIN PRECIPITATION RETURNING TONIGHT.
- QUICK SHOT OF LIGHT SNOW SUNDAY MORNING, THEN A BREAK SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST FLOW SNOWFALL SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED IN THE EAST TN MOUNTAINS
AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA, WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOW ELEVATION
FLURRIES AT TIMES.
- GUSTY WINDS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH EXPECTED
FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS WITH GUSTS NEAR 40MPH POSSIBLE IN THE
MOUNTAINS.
- WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO BELOW ZERO ARE EXPECTED
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THESOUTHWEST
VA, EAST TN, AND SOUTHWEST NC MOUNTAINS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 123 AM EST SAT FEB 21 2026
A SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING MEAN FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE
RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER
CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT WITH VERY MINIMAL ELEVATED
INSTABILITY, BUT NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED AS SHEAR IS
ALSO LIMITED WITH A WEAK LLJ DISPLACED JUST TO OUR SOUTH. BEST
CHANCE FOR A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER WILL BE IN THE SOUTHERN VALLEY
AND SOUTHWEST NC. RAIN WILL GRADUALLY COME TO AN END THROUGH THE
MORNING, WITH A MOSTLY DRY AFTERNOON EXPECTED.
A MORE PROMINENT TROUGH DIGS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION LATER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL RETURN AS MOSTLY RAIN TO BEGIN. AS TEMPERATURES BEGIN
TO FALL EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, A TRANSITION TO SNOW IS EXPECTED TO
BRING LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS IN THE EAST TENNESSEE MOUNTAINS AND
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. SW VA AND E TN MTNS ELEVATIONS 2KFT OR LESS
WOULD CAN EXPECTED A DUSTING TO JUST A FEW TENTHS DURING THIS TIME.
MTN ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2KFT COULD SEE UP TO TWO INCHES, WITH ISOLATED
HIGHER TOTALS AT THE TALLEST PEAKS +5KFT. A FEW FLURRIES CANNOT BE
RULED OUT IN LOWER ELEVATIONS OF NE TN VALLEY AND THE CUMBERLAND
PLATEAU BUT ACCUMULATION SEEMS UNLIKELY DUE TO WARMER GROUNDS.
MOISTURE BECOMES VERY LIMITED WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR A BRIEF
PERIOD LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON SUNDAY. A REINFORCING DISTURBANCE
AND DEEPENING OF THE SFC LOW ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL ALLOW FOR A
RESURGENCE OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND AMPLIFIED NW FLOW SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED IN
NORTHWEST FLOW SNOWFALL LOCATIONS THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. THIS WILL
BE THE MOST LIKELY TIME TO SEE TOTALS UP TO 2 INCHES IN PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST VA, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS IN THE MOST FAVORED RIDGE
TOPS. PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLATEAU AND NORTHEAST TN COULD ALSO
SEE A DUSTING TO A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH. AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3
INCHES COULD BE POSSIBLE IN THE EAST TN MOUNTAINS.
OVERALL, SNOWFALL TOTALS FOR SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA WILL TREND UP TO 2
INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS FOR THE EVENT. EAST TN MOUNTAIN
LOCATIONS CAN EXPECT 1 TO 3 INCHES, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS NEAR
5 INCHES AT THE VERY HIGHEST PEAKS. PORTIONS OF NE TN VALLEY AND
CUMBERLAND PLATEAU COULD SEE A DUSTING TO A FEW TENTHS.
ADDITIONALLY, GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN PLACE, WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO
BELOW ZERO ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST VA, EAST TN, AND SOUTHWEST NC MOUNTAINS.
SNOW TAPERS OFF MONDAY NIGHT WITH DRIER CONDITIONS AND WARMING TREND
EXPECTED INTO THE MID-WEEK. NEXT CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH IT CURRENTLY LOOKING TO TREND DRIER BY NEXT
WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM EST FRI FEB 20 2026
SOME LIGHT RAIN TO START MAINLY CHA AND TYS, AND CONDITIONS MAY
AT LEAST BRIEFLY DROP TO MVFR AT CHA EARLY IN THE PERIOD. LATE IN
THE PERIOD WILL SEE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS MOVING IN, AND A BETTER
CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS ALL SITES. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
LIGHT, BUT WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTH LATE IN THE PERIOD TO
AROUND 10 KTS AT CHA AND TYS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 65 34 46 24 / 30 30 0 10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 61 34 41 25 / 30 40 10 20
OAK RIDGE, TN 61 33 41 24 / 20 40 10 20
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 57 34 38 23 / 20 60 40 40
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KRS
AVIATION...99
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