020
FXUS64 KMRX 311435 AAB
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1035 AM EDT MON MAR 31 2025
..NEW UPDATE
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1018 AM EDT MON MAR 31 2025
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS VERY WEAK INSTABILITY ALONG THE GA BORDER THIS
MORNING. THIS IS WHERE THE MORE VIGOROUS CONVECTION IS, AND WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS IT SHIFTS EAST TOWARDS
WESTERN NC. THUNDERSTORMS BECOME MORE SPARSE BY THE TIME YOU GET
TO THE I-40 CORRIDOR AND THAT TREND LIKELY CONTINUES FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS AS WELL. TO THIS END, MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS
THROUGH THE DAY, LEANING HEAVILY TOWARDS THE 12Z HRRR RUN AS IT
SEEMS TO HAVE A VERY SOLID HANDLE ON CURRENT RADAR DEPICTIONS. CUT
DOWN THE THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE A FAIR BIT TOO OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS TO COME IN LINE WITH THE GLAMP GUIDANCE FOR PROB OF THUNDER
AS IT LIMITED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY TO AREAS SOUTH OF ATHENS WHICH
IS VERY WELL ALIGNED WITH CURRENT LIGHTNING NETWORK OBSERVATIONS
TOO. LASTLY, GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER AND RAIN EXPECTED, KNOCKED
HIGHS DOWN SEVERAL DEGREES TODAY AS WELL.
OTHERWISE, STILL EXPECT A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER
THE PLATEAU THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. I DON'T THINK THESE WILL BE SEVERE, BUT PERHAPS SOME GUSTY
WINDS OR SMALL HAIL COULD OCCUR.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 242 AM EDT MON MAR 31 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
1. THE SEVERE THREAT WITH A LOW CHANCE OF TORNADOES WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE MORNING HOURS, DECREASING BY MID MORNING AT THE LATEST.
2. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS
BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.
3. DRY AND COLDER TONIGHT.
DISCUSSION:
A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IS MOVING THROUGH SW VIRGINIA
AND THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU COUNTIES. GENERALLY SPEAKING, THIS LINE
HAS BEEN WEAKENING AS IT MOVES EAST AND THAT TREND IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE. HOWEVER, DAMAGING WINDS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE IN
STRONGER CELLS AND BOWING SEGMENTS. THE THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL
SEEMS TO BE DECREASING. WE STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A TORNADO OR TWO,
ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-40 WHERE ML CAPE IS HIGHER, POSSIBLY OVER
1000 J/KG. LCL HEIGHTS LOOK FAVORABLE, MOSTLY LESS THAN 500 METERS
ACCORDING TO SPC MESOANALYSIS. A TORNADO WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR MOST TENNESSEE COUNTIES EXCLUDING NE TENNESSEE. A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH CONTINUES IN SW VIRGINIA.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS, A WEAK TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY TODAY AND TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE, A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE PARENT LOW NEAR QUEBEC.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE BY TONIGHT. A FEW BATCHES OF RAIN
WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER ARE LIKELY FROM MID MORNING TO LATE
AFTERNOON. A SMALL LINE OF (POSSIBLY) STRONG STORMS IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE COLD FRONT. THIS LINE DOESN'T
LOOK TOO IMPRESSIVE IN THE CAM GUIDANCE BUT GUSTY WINDS, HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AND HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THIS LINE WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP IN THE MIDDLE OF OUR FORECAST AREA NEAR THE I-75 CORRIDOR.
THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH SINCE CLOUDS AND
RAIN WILL LINGER THROUGHOUT THE REGION AHEAD OF THIS DEVELOPMENT.
FORECAST RAINFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND ONE INCH FOR
MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. DRY AND COLDER TONIGHT
WITH AT LEAST SOME CLEARING OF CLOUDS EXPECTED.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 AM EDT MON MAR 31 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
1. UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK
WITH TEMPERATURES 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
2. RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY?
3. GUSTY WINDS FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY ESPECIALLY
FOR THE FAR EAST TENNESSEE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.
4. FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY MOVE ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THIS WEEKEND BUT LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING.
DISCUSSION:
THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THIS WEEK WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED BY A VERY
RAPID WARMING OF THE REGION AS MID TO LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
SEE A STRENGTHENING RIDGE. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB
INTO THE 80'S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY AND EVEN THE UPPER
80'S ON THURSDAY AS WE SIT JUST SOUTH OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND STRONG RIDGING OVER THE ATLANTIC DRAWING UP AIR FROM
THE SOUTH. THE BIGGEST QUESTION WITH REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES IS
WHERE THE FRONT TO OUR NORTH HOLDS UP. IF IT DIPS DOWN CLOSER TO
OUR ARE A WE COULD SEE SOME MORE CLOUDY SKIES FROM MOVE IN WHICH
WOULD LIMIT HEATING... AND IF IT STAYS FURTHER NORTH WE MIGHT GET
SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEW POINTS CREEP IN WHICH COULD CAUSE ADDITIONAL
STORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE HOTTEST PARTS OF THE DAY THROWING A
WRENCH INTO HOW WARM A CLIMATE SITE MIGHT GET. SO WHILE IT'S NOT
OFF THE TABLE TO SEE RECORD HIGHS ON THURSDAY, THERE ARE STILL
SOME BIG QUESTION MARKS IN THE FORECAST.
THE MORE HAZARDOUS WEATHER FOR THIS DRY PERIOD DURING THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK IS WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE JET MOVES NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA ALLOWING INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENTS LEADING TO
BREEZY CONDITIONS IN THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. WE COULD SEE ANOTHER
MOUNTAIN WAVE EVENT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH ADVISORY LEVEL
WINDS POSSIBLE IN THE TYPICALLY WINDY LOCATIONS.
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK THIS STUBBORN FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO
REMAIN IN THE KENTUCKY/MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION JUST TO OUR
NORTH. WITH THE WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUING FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK WE COULD GET A GLIMPSE OF SUMMER WEATHER WITH AFTERNOON
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION, SPARKING OFF IN THE OROGRAPHICALLY
ENHANCED AREAS COMMON IN THE SUMMER. STILL LOTS UP IN THE AIR WITH
THE LOCATION OF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL ACT AS THE FOCUS FOR
REPEATED HEAVY RAIN SOMEWHERE OVER THE CENTRAL/EASTERN U.S. AND HOW
IT WILL INFLUENCE TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS OVER THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS.
FRONT LOOKS LIKE IT MIGHT FINALLY SEE IT'S WAY OUT OVER THE WEEKEND
AS IT GETS A REINFORCING SHOVE FROM A NORTHERN STATES LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM. THIS WOULD BRING A ROUND OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS TO
THE AREA OVER YET ANOTHER WEEKEND.
DAILY RECORD HIGH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
DATE CHATTANOOGA KNOXVILLE TRI-CITIES OAK RIDGE
04-02 88(2012) 88(1940) 88(2010) 87(2012)
04-03 89(1999) 85(1946) 82(2012) 87(1963)
04-04 88(1934) 87(1934) 83(2023) 84(1999)
04-05 89(2023) 89(2023) 86(2023) 88(2023)
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 710 AM EDT MON MAR 31 2025
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
THUNDER WILL BE NEAR TYS THIS AFTERNOON AS A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT. CIGS ARE CURRENTLY VFR BUT
MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE OFF AND ON ALL DAY. WINDS WILL BECOME
MORE NORTHWESTERLY THIS EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 71 44 73 56 / 100 0 0 10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 69 44 70 51 / 100 10 0 0
OAK RIDGE, TN 69 41 69 50 / 90 10 0 0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 68 42 67 49 / 90 20 0 0
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CD
AVIATION...MCD
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