414
FXUS64 KMRX 171123
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
723 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 719 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2026
- WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY.
RECORD HIGHS ARE POSSIBLE.
- A COLD FRONT WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM LATE SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY, BUT WARMING UP AGAIN NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 256 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2026
NOT TOO MANY CHANGES THIS MORNING. HOT WEATHER AGAIN TODAY AND
SATURDAY, WITH THE EXPECTED COLD FRONT LIKELY TO SWEEP THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE ANOTHER BATCH OF RAIN
SHOWERS, WITH POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO, WHICH WILL BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL TO THE REGION, THOUGH
CERTAINLY NOT A DROUGHT BUSTER. A FEW SHOWERS MAY START ENCROACHING
ON THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON, BUT THE MORE LIKELY BULK OF THE RAIN
WILL FALL OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. CAPE PROFILES FROM
LONGER RANGE CAM MODELS DON'T LOOK OVERLY PROMISING FOR STORM
DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH RAINFALL ANY ONE
LOCATION GOT FROM THE FIRST ROUND OF RAIN A FEW HOURS AGO, THE
TOTALS FOR THE WEEK WILL BE CLOSE TO AVERAGE OR STILL BELOW AVERAGE
FOR A WEEK OF APRIL. UNFORTUNATELY, MORE SUBSTANTIVE RELIEF FROM THE
DROUGHT WILL REMAIN ON HOLD.
DAILY RECORD HIGH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
DATE CHATTANOOGA KNOXVILLE TRI-CITIES OAK RIDGE
04-17 91(1955) 90(1896) 85(2002) 88(1955)
04-18 90(2002) 90(1896) 87(2002) 89(2002)
FOLLOWING THE FRONT, ANOTHER DISGUSTINGLY DRY AIRMASS WILL DEPOSIT
DOWN ONTO THE REGION, AND WITH THE H85 SOUTHEASTERN RIDGE BEING
FAIRLY STAGNANT, WE CAN EXPECT DAILY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY MINIMUMS
FOR MUCH OF THE FOLLOWING WORK WEEK. RAIN CHANCES DON'T SEEM LIKELY
TO START CREEPING IN UNTIL THE END OF THE WORK WEEK, WITH NO
INTERESTING DISTURBANCES IN EITHER MODEL SUITE. TEMPERATURES BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL TAKE A HEALTHY NOSE DIVE, WITH POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
FROST ACROSS NORTHERN LOCATIONS MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNINGS. THIS IS
PROVIDED THERE'S ENOUGH SURFACE MOISTURE TO ALLOW FOR FROST
FORMATION. TEMPERATURES WILL STEADILY REBOUND THANKS AGAIN TO
INFLUENCE BY THE H85 RIDGE, AND BY LATE WEEK NEXT WEEK WE'LL BE BACK
IN THE 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 719 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2026
REGIONAL FOG AROUND TRI THIS MORNING. IT DIDN'T END UP DEVELOPING
AT TYS. CURRENT MVFR CIG AT TRI TO POSSIBLY LINGER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS THIS MORNING. ONCE THAT CLEARS, VFR AND DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED TODAY WITH LIGHT SW-W WINDS UNDER A STRENGTHENING
RIDGE AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 89 64 88 49 / 0 0 20 80
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 86 61 86 48 / 0 0 20 80
OAK RIDGE, TN 87 60 86 47 / 0 0 30 90
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 83 56 84 46 / 0 0 30 80
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...WELLINGTON
AVIATION...KS
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