695
FXUS64 KMRX 081136
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
736 AM EDT SAT AUG 8 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 648 AM EDT SAT AUG 8 2026
- DAILY SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK, ESPECIALLY IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. COVERAGE WILL BE GREATEST
ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
- ISOLATED FLOODING AND STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGEST STORMS.
- TEMPERATURES WILL BE GENERALLY NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1242 AM EDT SAT AUG 8 2026
A MID/UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION IS LOCATED OVER AR, AND THIS WILL BE
THE MAIN FEATURE OF THE PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE LOW WILL SLOWLY TRACK EAST TODAY, PUTTING OUR AREA IN A
MIDLEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE. THE HIGH PW AND WEAK FLOW ALOFT POINTS TO
ANOTHER DAY OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT HAVE
LITTLE MOVEMENT, INITIATING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND MAINLY
PROPAGATING INTO THE VALLEY WITH NEW DEVELOPMENT ON OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES. AS WE HAVE SEEN FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS, THESE SLOW-MOVING
STORMS CAN PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS - EXPECT
THE SAME POTENTIAL TODAY. SUNDAY LOOKS SIMILAR AS THE CLOSED LOW
TRANSITIONS TO AN OPEN WAVE, BUT STILL REMAINS OVER WEST/MIDDLE TN.
PW VALUES REMAIN IN THE 1.8-2 INCH RANGE WITH 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE
AND NEGLIGIBLE SHEAR. THE TROUGH MOVES OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY,
WHICH MAY GIVE A LITTLE BETTER INSTABILITY AND SHEAR, PARTICULARLY
IN THE SOUTHERN HALF.
BY TUESDAY, THE PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY WITH THE
TROUGH TO OUR EAST AND A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO OUR WEST. THIS
BRINGS SOME DRIER AIR ALOFT TO THE AREA, ALONG WITH SOME STEEPER MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THESE STORMS COULD POSE A LITTLE MORE OF AN
ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT, ALTHOUGH SHEAR STILL LOOKS WEAK. FOR
WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND, WE WILL REMAIN IN A NW FLOW WITH EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS BRINGING SOME DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.
SPECIFICS ON TIMING AND SEVERE/FLOODING POTENTIAL ARE UNCERTAIN AT
THIS TIME.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 648 AM EDT SAT AUG 8 2026
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A NARROW CORRIDOR OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS
THROUGHOUT THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE TN VALLEY, AFFECTING ONLY
KCHA THIS MORNING SO FAR. EXPECT ALL SITES TO RETURN TO VFR LEVELS
BY MID MORNING. HREF PROBABILITIES REFLECT FAIRLY GOOD ODDS FOR
FOG AND LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP IN THOSE SAME AREAS AGAIN TONIGHT.
WILL FAVOR A PERSISTENCE FORECAST IN LIGHT OF THE HREF GUIDANCE
AND TREND KCHA DOWNWARD WITH A 4SM AND SCT005 MENTION LATE IN THE
PERIOD. ELSEWHERE, I THINK ANY FOG AND LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT WILL
DEPEND ON WHETHER SHRA/TSRA OCCUR. SPEAKING OF THAT, ANOTHER DAY
OF SCT TO NUM AFTERNOON SHRA AND TSRA IS EXPECTED TODAY. BELIEVE A
PROB30 GROUP WILL SUFFICE AT EACH SITE, BUT THE BEST CHANCES ARE
LIKELY AT KCHA ONCE AGAIN.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 91 73 92 73 / 50 10 70 20
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 90 71 91 73 / 40 10 30 10
OAK RIDGE, TN 89 71 90 72 / 50 10 40 10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 86 68 88 69 / 40 20 30 10
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DGS
AVIATION...CD
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